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000
FXUS61 KBOX 270843
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
443 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE THROUGH TOMORROW.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY...
WITH TODAY AND TOMORROW HAVING THE HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
STORMS. COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS ARRIVE LATE THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
4 AM UPDATE...

SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND REMAINS IN THE WARM...MOIST AIRMASS EARLY THIS
MORNING. TEMPS ARE STILL IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WITH A FEW SITES
STILL AT 70F AS OF 4AM! SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
MORNING ALLOWING FOR THE LOW LEVELS TO MOISTEN UP BRINGING IN
STRATUS AND FOG.

HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST MAINLY FOR VSBYS AND FOG POTENTIAL AS IT IS
NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED. IN FACT...ONLY THE
VINEYARD SHOWS VSBYS BELOW 5 SM. OTHERWISE THE BULK OF THE FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK.

TODAY...

WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR TODAY. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
GUST BETWEEN 20-30 KTS AS HIGH TEMPS WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID
80S.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY WORKS IT WAY EASTWARD ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. FEEL TODAY HAS THE BETTER POTENTIAL TO SEE A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND MODEST SOUTHERLY
FLOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CT AND WESTERN MA. ASIDE FROM THE ABUNDANT
MOISTURE...CAPE VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG WITH ABOUT
25 KTS OF SHEAR. PWAT VALUES WILL BE ABOUT 1.5 INCHES...COMBINED
WITH A DESCENT SOUTHERLY LLJ AND WARM CLOUD PROCESSES PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS...ANY THUNDERSTORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY
RAIN. HAVE CONTINUED ENHANCED WORDING TO THE FORECAST FOR HEAVY
RAIN. COULD SEE SOME STRONG WINDS GUSTS AS WELL...ESP ACROSS
FRANKLIN COUNTY.

SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP BY THE LATE AFTERNOON AND LINGER
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SPC HAS THE PIONEER VALLEY IN A SLIGHT RISK
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. AN ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUST CANNOT BE
RULED OUT...BUT OVERALL FEEL IS THAT STORMS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SEVERE LIMITS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE QUESTION FOR THIS EVENING IS HOW FAR EAST THE CONVECTION WILL
GET. BELIEVE THAT THE MARINE INFLUENCE AND PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL MOST LIKELY WEAKEN THE STORMS CONSIDERABLY AS THEY MOVE
NEAR THE CENTRAL HILL OF WORCESTER COUNTY. IN FACT BELIEVE PRECIP
WILL STRUGGLE AFTER 3/4Z.

AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTH COAST BY THE
EVENING HOURS LIMITING VISIBILITIES. DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...

MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
AREAS OF FOG ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST/CAPE AND ISLANDS.
SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE LOCALLY DENSE FOG.

POPS DO SLOWLY INCREASE TO LOW CHANCE FOR THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE REGION OVERNIGHT AS THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH REMAINS NEARBY AND
ELEVATED INSTABILITY COULD PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS.

TOMORROW...

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON
THURSDAY PUSHING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. 00Z GUIDANCE SHOWS
THE FRONT PUSHING THROUGH BY THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS WHICH COULD
BE A SOURCE OF LIFT FOR ANY CONVECTION. HOWEVER APPEARS THAT THE BETTER
DYNAMICS WILL BE NORTH OF THE REGION...IN MAINE AND NEW
HAMPSHIRE. STILL CANT RULE OUT A FEW SCT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AS
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A NARROW CORRIDOR OF HEATING WITH DESCENT SHEAR
BETWEEN 25-30 KTS AND MARGINAL MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

PWAT VALUES ARE STILL HIGH...AROUND 1.6 INCHES WHICH MAY YIELD TO
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITHIN ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS GUIDANCE RUNS. MAIN SYNOPTIC PATTERN
REMAINS LARGELY IN PLACE THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEK...WITH A
DEEP RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THIS WILL KEEP THE
HEAT AND HUMIDITY IN PLACE. WILL LIKELY HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL LATE
THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR A REPRIEVE...AS THIS RIDGE
GRADUALLY MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE.

GENERALLY FAVORED A CONSENSUS BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OVER
THE RELATIVELY MINOR DIFFERENCES INTO THIS WEEKEND. THESE
DIFFERENCES BECOME MORE SIGNIFICANT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. STILL
FAVORED A CONSENSUS BLEND TO DEAL WITH THE UNCERTAINTY.

DETAILS...

THURSDAY NIGHT...WILL SEE AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...DEVELOP
ACROSS SOUTH COASTAL AREAS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS END
FROM WEST TO EAST.

FRIDAY...EXPECTING A MAINLY DRY DAY...AS OUR REGION IS BETWEEN
TWO SYSTEMS...WITH WEAK SURFACE RIDGING. IT SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY
LESS HUMID...BUT STILL MUGGY.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REPOSITIONS OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD...SO
SW WINDS INCREASE AGAIN...BRINGING A RETURN OF MORE HUMID AIR.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT STARTS TO APPROACH OUT OF GREAT LAKES AND
WESTERN QUEBEC. ALSO NOTING INCREASING INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. WE COULD SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD LAST THOUGH SAT NIGHT. WITH THE HUMIDITY
ALREADY IN PLACE...HEAVIER DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
CONVECTION.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
MORNING...THEN REACHES THE SOUTH COAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECTING
AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE SLOW
MOVEMENT OF THIS FRONT...EXPECTING SCT RAINFALL TO CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...SOMEWHAT LOWER CONFIDENCE DUE TO TIMING AND
PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES WITH A FRONT...AND WHETHER IT STALLS NEAR
THE SOUTH COAST OR OFFSHORE. AT THIS POINT...KEPT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. LOW
PROBABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY...THEN INSTABILITY WORKS
OFFSHORE.

HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING FOR SOUTHERN AREAS INTO TUESDAY
AS FRONT LOOKS TO LINGER NEARBY...THEN MAY TRY TO MAKE A RUN BACK
NE AS THE HIGH PUSHES OFF INTO THE GULF OF MAINE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

BEFORE 12Z...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. COULD SEE IFR CIGS AND VSBYS
ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE AND ISLANDS. OTHERWISE VFR AREA WIDE.

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR/MVFR WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
SOUTH COAST WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION IS VFR. WESTERN
SITES COULD DROP TO MVFR WITHIN ANY -SHRA/-TSRA THAT DEVELOPS.
EXPECT SW WINDS TO GUST UP TO 20-30 KT AT TIMES MAINLY ACROSS
RI/SE MA.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO IFR
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS AS MARITIME FOG AND
STRATUS ROLL IN.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE
REGION SWITCHING THE SOUTHERLY WINDS TO THE WEST DURING THE DAY.
IFR...FOG AND STRATUS IS POSSIBLE BEFORE FRONTAL PASSAGE ALONG SE
TAF SITES. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS/T-STORMS ALONG THE FRONT
DROPPING CONDITIONS TO MVFR. OTHERWISE VFR WILL PREVAIL.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. COULD SEE CONDITIONS DROP
TO MVFR WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORM TODAY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY...VFR. MAY SEE LOCAL MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS EARLY MORNING
ALONG S COAST IN PATCHY FOG...THEN MAY LOWER AGAIN LATE FRI NIGHT
TO MVFR-IFR.

SATURDAY...PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS...
WILL IMPROVE. SCT SHRA/TSRA SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH SAT NIGHT...
WITH LOCAL MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS. SW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KT
MAINLY ALONG THE COAST SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING.

SUNDAY...SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS LINGER...BUT SHOULD END LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

NEW SET OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE UP TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT.
EXPECT NEAR SHORE WATERS TO SEE GUSTS NEAR 25 KTS...JUST LIKE
YESTERDAY. OTHERWISE SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
INCREASING OUTER WATER SEAS TO 5FT.

IN ADDITION...AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ON THE
WATERS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...SUBSTANTIALLY REDUCING
VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY...LIGHT N-NE WINDS BECOME E DURING THE DAY...THEN SHIFT TO
S-SW FRI NIGHT. EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SW WINDS MAY BRIEFLY GUST TO 25 KT DURING SAT ON
THE EASTERN WATERS...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECTING GUSTS UP TO 20 KT. SEAS BUILD AGAIN TO
AROUND 5 FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR ANZ230-236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ235-237-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 270843
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
443 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE THROUGH TOMORROW.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY...
WITH TODAY AND TOMORROW HAVING THE HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
STORMS. COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS ARRIVE LATE THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
4 AM UPDATE...

SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND REMAINS IN THE WARM...MOIST AIRMASS EARLY THIS
MORNING. TEMPS ARE STILL IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WITH A FEW SITES
STILL AT 70F AS OF 4AM! SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
MORNING ALLOWING FOR THE LOW LEVELS TO MOISTEN UP BRINGING IN
STRATUS AND FOG.

HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST MAINLY FOR VSBYS AND FOG POTENTIAL AS IT IS
NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED. IN FACT...ONLY THE
VINEYARD SHOWS VSBYS BELOW 5 SM. OTHERWISE THE BULK OF THE FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK.

TODAY...

WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR TODAY. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
GUST BETWEEN 20-30 KTS AS HIGH TEMPS WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID
80S.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY WORKS IT WAY EASTWARD ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. FEEL TODAY HAS THE BETTER POTENTIAL TO SEE A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND MODEST SOUTHERLY
FLOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CT AND WESTERN MA. ASIDE FROM THE ABUNDANT
MOISTURE...CAPE VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG WITH ABOUT
25 KTS OF SHEAR. PWAT VALUES WILL BE ABOUT 1.5 INCHES...COMBINED
WITH A DESCENT SOUTHERLY LLJ AND WARM CLOUD PROCESSES PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS...ANY THUNDERSTORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY
RAIN. HAVE CONTINUED ENHANCED WORDING TO THE FORECAST FOR HEAVY
RAIN. COULD SEE SOME STRONG WINDS GUSTS AS WELL...ESP ACROSS
FRANKLIN COUNTY.

SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP BY THE LATE AFTERNOON AND LINGER
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SPC HAS THE PIONEER VALLEY IN A SLIGHT RISK
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. AN ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUST CANNOT BE
RULED OUT...BUT OVERALL FEEL IS THAT STORMS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SEVERE LIMITS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE QUESTION FOR THIS EVENING IS HOW FAR EAST THE CONVECTION WILL
GET. BELIEVE THAT THE MARINE INFLUENCE AND PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL MOST LIKELY WEAKEN THE STORMS CONSIDERABLY AS THEY MOVE
NEAR THE CENTRAL HILL OF WORCESTER COUNTY. IN FACT BELIEVE PRECIP
WILL STRUGGLE AFTER 3/4Z.

AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTH COAST BY THE
EVENING HOURS LIMITING VISIBILITIES. DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...

MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
AREAS OF FOG ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST/CAPE AND ISLANDS.
SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE LOCALLY DENSE FOG.

POPS DO SLOWLY INCREASE TO LOW CHANCE FOR THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE REGION OVERNIGHT AS THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH REMAINS NEARBY AND
ELEVATED INSTABILITY COULD PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS.

TOMORROW...

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON
THURSDAY PUSHING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. 00Z GUIDANCE SHOWS
THE FRONT PUSHING THROUGH BY THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS WHICH COULD
BE A SOURCE OF LIFT FOR ANY CONVECTION. HOWEVER APPEARS THAT THE BETTER
DYNAMICS WILL BE NORTH OF THE REGION...IN MAINE AND NEW
HAMPSHIRE. STILL CANT RULE OUT A FEW SCT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AS
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A NARROW CORRIDOR OF HEATING WITH DESCENT SHEAR
BETWEEN 25-30 KTS AND MARGINAL MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

PWAT VALUES ARE STILL HIGH...AROUND 1.6 INCHES WHICH MAY YIELD TO
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITHIN ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS GUIDANCE RUNS. MAIN SYNOPTIC PATTERN
REMAINS LARGELY IN PLACE THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEK...WITH A
DEEP RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THIS WILL KEEP THE
HEAT AND HUMIDITY IN PLACE. WILL LIKELY HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL LATE
THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR A REPRIEVE...AS THIS RIDGE
GRADUALLY MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE.

GENERALLY FAVORED A CONSENSUS BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OVER
THE RELATIVELY MINOR DIFFERENCES INTO THIS WEEKEND. THESE
DIFFERENCES BECOME MORE SIGNIFICANT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. STILL
FAVORED A CONSENSUS BLEND TO DEAL WITH THE UNCERTAINTY.

DETAILS...

THURSDAY NIGHT...WILL SEE AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...DEVELOP
ACROSS SOUTH COASTAL AREAS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS END
FROM WEST TO EAST.

FRIDAY...EXPECTING A MAINLY DRY DAY...AS OUR REGION IS BETWEEN
TWO SYSTEMS...WITH WEAK SURFACE RIDGING. IT SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY
LESS HUMID...BUT STILL MUGGY.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REPOSITIONS OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD...SO
SW WINDS INCREASE AGAIN...BRINGING A RETURN OF MORE HUMID AIR.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT STARTS TO APPROACH OUT OF GREAT LAKES AND
WESTERN QUEBEC. ALSO NOTING INCREASING INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. WE COULD SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD LAST THOUGH SAT NIGHT. WITH THE HUMIDITY
ALREADY IN PLACE...HEAVIER DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
CONVECTION.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
MORNING...THEN REACHES THE SOUTH COAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECTING
AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE SLOW
MOVEMENT OF THIS FRONT...EXPECTING SCT RAINFALL TO CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...SOMEWHAT LOWER CONFIDENCE DUE TO TIMING AND
PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES WITH A FRONT...AND WHETHER IT STALLS NEAR
THE SOUTH COAST OR OFFSHORE. AT THIS POINT...KEPT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. LOW
PROBABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY...THEN INSTABILITY WORKS
OFFSHORE.

HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING FOR SOUTHERN AREAS INTO TUESDAY
AS FRONT LOOKS TO LINGER NEARBY...THEN MAY TRY TO MAKE A RUN BACK
NE AS THE HIGH PUSHES OFF INTO THE GULF OF MAINE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

BEFORE 12Z...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. COULD SEE IFR CIGS AND VSBYS
ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE AND ISLANDS. OTHERWISE VFR AREA WIDE.

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR/MVFR WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
SOUTH COAST WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION IS VFR. WESTERN
SITES COULD DROP TO MVFR WITHIN ANY -SHRA/-TSRA THAT DEVELOPS.
EXPECT SW WINDS TO GUST UP TO 20-30 KT AT TIMES MAINLY ACROSS
RI/SE MA.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO IFR
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS AS MARITIME FOG AND
STRATUS ROLL IN.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE
REGION SWITCHING THE SOUTHERLY WINDS TO THE WEST DURING THE DAY.
IFR...FOG AND STRATUS IS POSSIBLE BEFORE FRONTAL PASSAGE ALONG SE
TAF SITES. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS/T-STORMS ALONG THE FRONT
DROPPING CONDITIONS TO MVFR. OTHERWISE VFR WILL PREVAIL.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. COULD SEE CONDITIONS DROP
TO MVFR WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORM TODAY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY...VFR. MAY SEE LOCAL MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS EARLY MORNING
ALONG S COAST IN PATCHY FOG...THEN MAY LOWER AGAIN LATE FRI NIGHT
TO MVFR-IFR.

SATURDAY...PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS...
WILL IMPROVE. SCT SHRA/TSRA SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH SAT NIGHT...
WITH LOCAL MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS. SW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KT
MAINLY ALONG THE COAST SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING.

SUNDAY...SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS LINGER...BUT SHOULD END LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

NEW SET OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE UP TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT.
EXPECT NEAR SHORE WATERS TO SEE GUSTS NEAR 25 KTS...JUST LIKE
YESTERDAY. OTHERWISE SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
INCREASING OUTER WATER SEAS TO 5FT.

IN ADDITION...AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ON THE
WATERS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...SUBSTANTIALLY REDUCING
VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY...LIGHT N-NE WINDS BECOME E DURING THE DAY...THEN SHIFT TO
S-SW FRI NIGHT. EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SW WINDS MAY BRIEFLY GUST TO 25 KT DURING SAT ON
THE EASTERN WATERS...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECTING GUSTS UP TO 20 KT. SEAS BUILD AGAIN TO
AROUND 5 FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR ANZ230-236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ235-237-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 270843
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
443 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE THROUGH TOMORROW.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY...
WITH TODAY AND TOMORROW HAVING THE HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
STORMS. COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS ARRIVE LATE THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
4 AM UPDATE...

SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND REMAINS IN THE WARM...MOIST AIRMASS EARLY THIS
MORNING. TEMPS ARE STILL IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WITH A FEW SITES
STILL AT 70F AS OF 4AM! SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
MORNING ALLOWING FOR THE LOW LEVELS TO MOISTEN UP BRINGING IN
STRATUS AND FOG.

HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST MAINLY FOR VSBYS AND FOG POTENTIAL AS IT IS
NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED. IN FACT...ONLY THE
VINEYARD SHOWS VSBYS BELOW 5 SM. OTHERWISE THE BULK OF THE FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK.

TODAY...

WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR TODAY. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
GUST BETWEEN 20-30 KTS AS HIGH TEMPS WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID
80S.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY WORKS IT WAY EASTWARD ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. FEEL TODAY HAS THE BETTER POTENTIAL TO SEE A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND MODEST SOUTHERLY
FLOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CT AND WESTERN MA. ASIDE FROM THE ABUNDANT
MOISTURE...CAPE VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG WITH ABOUT
25 KTS OF SHEAR. PWAT VALUES WILL BE ABOUT 1.5 INCHES...COMBINED
WITH A DESCENT SOUTHERLY LLJ AND WARM CLOUD PROCESSES PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS...ANY THUNDERSTORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY
RAIN. HAVE CONTINUED ENHANCED WORDING TO THE FORECAST FOR HEAVY
RAIN. COULD SEE SOME STRONG WINDS GUSTS AS WELL...ESP ACROSS
FRANKLIN COUNTY.

SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP BY THE LATE AFTERNOON AND LINGER
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SPC HAS THE PIONEER VALLEY IN A SLIGHT RISK
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. AN ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUST CANNOT BE
RULED OUT...BUT OVERALL FEEL IS THAT STORMS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SEVERE LIMITS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE QUESTION FOR THIS EVENING IS HOW FAR EAST THE CONVECTION WILL
GET. BELIEVE THAT THE MARINE INFLUENCE AND PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL MOST LIKELY WEAKEN THE STORMS CONSIDERABLY AS THEY MOVE
NEAR THE CENTRAL HILL OF WORCESTER COUNTY. IN FACT BELIEVE PRECIP
WILL STRUGGLE AFTER 3/4Z.

AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTH COAST BY THE
EVENING HOURS LIMITING VISIBILITIES. DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...

MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
AREAS OF FOG ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST/CAPE AND ISLANDS.
SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE LOCALLY DENSE FOG.

POPS DO SLOWLY INCREASE TO LOW CHANCE FOR THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE REGION OVERNIGHT AS THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH REMAINS NEARBY AND
ELEVATED INSTABILITY COULD PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS.

TOMORROW...

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON
THURSDAY PUSHING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. 00Z GUIDANCE SHOWS
THE FRONT PUSHING THROUGH BY THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS WHICH COULD
BE A SOURCE OF LIFT FOR ANY CONVECTION. HOWEVER APPEARS THAT THE BETTER
DYNAMICS WILL BE NORTH OF THE REGION...IN MAINE AND NEW
HAMPSHIRE. STILL CANT RULE OUT A FEW SCT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AS
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A NARROW CORRIDOR OF HEATING WITH DESCENT SHEAR
BETWEEN 25-30 KTS AND MARGINAL MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

PWAT VALUES ARE STILL HIGH...AROUND 1.6 INCHES WHICH MAY YIELD TO
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITHIN ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS GUIDANCE RUNS. MAIN SYNOPTIC PATTERN
REMAINS LARGELY IN PLACE THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEK...WITH A
DEEP RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THIS WILL KEEP THE
HEAT AND HUMIDITY IN PLACE. WILL LIKELY HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL LATE
THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR A REPRIEVE...AS THIS RIDGE
GRADUALLY MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE.

GENERALLY FAVORED A CONSENSUS BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OVER
THE RELATIVELY MINOR DIFFERENCES INTO THIS WEEKEND. THESE
DIFFERENCES BECOME MORE SIGNIFICANT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. STILL
FAVORED A CONSENSUS BLEND TO DEAL WITH THE UNCERTAINTY.

DETAILS...

THURSDAY NIGHT...WILL SEE AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...DEVELOP
ACROSS SOUTH COASTAL AREAS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS END
FROM WEST TO EAST.

FRIDAY...EXPECTING A MAINLY DRY DAY...AS OUR REGION IS BETWEEN
TWO SYSTEMS...WITH WEAK SURFACE RIDGING. IT SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY
LESS HUMID...BUT STILL MUGGY.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REPOSITIONS OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD...SO
SW WINDS INCREASE AGAIN...BRINGING A RETURN OF MORE HUMID AIR.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT STARTS TO APPROACH OUT OF GREAT LAKES AND
WESTERN QUEBEC. ALSO NOTING INCREASING INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. WE COULD SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD LAST THOUGH SAT NIGHT. WITH THE HUMIDITY
ALREADY IN PLACE...HEAVIER DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
CONVECTION.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
MORNING...THEN REACHES THE SOUTH COAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECTING
AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE SLOW
MOVEMENT OF THIS FRONT...EXPECTING SCT RAINFALL TO CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...SOMEWHAT LOWER CONFIDENCE DUE TO TIMING AND
PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES WITH A FRONT...AND WHETHER IT STALLS NEAR
THE SOUTH COAST OR OFFSHORE. AT THIS POINT...KEPT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. LOW
PROBABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY...THEN INSTABILITY WORKS
OFFSHORE.

HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING FOR SOUTHERN AREAS INTO TUESDAY
AS FRONT LOOKS TO LINGER NEARBY...THEN MAY TRY TO MAKE A RUN BACK
NE AS THE HIGH PUSHES OFF INTO THE GULF OF MAINE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

BEFORE 12Z...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. COULD SEE IFR CIGS AND VSBYS
ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE AND ISLANDS. OTHERWISE VFR AREA WIDE.

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR/MVFR WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
SOUTH COAST WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION IS VFR. WESTERN
SITES COULD DROP TO MVFR WITHIN ANY -SHRA/-TSRA THAT DEVELOPS.
EXPECT SW WINDS TO GUST UP TO 20-30 KT AT TIMES MAINLY ACROSS
RI/SE MA.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO IFR
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS AS MARITIME FOG AND
STRATUS ROLL IN.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE
REGION SWITCHING THE SOUTHERLY WINDS TO THE WEST DURING THE DAY.
IFR...FOG AND STRATUS IS POSSIBLE BEFORE FRONTAL PASSAGE ALONG SE
TAF SITES. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS/T-STORMS ALONG THE FRONT
DROPPING CONDITIONS TO MVFR. OTHERWISE VFR WILL PREVAIL.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. COULD SEE CONDITIONS DROP
TO MVFR WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORM TODAY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY...VFR. MAY SEE LOCAL MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS EARLY MORNING
ALONG S COAST IN PATCHY FOG...THEN MAY LOWER AGAIN LATE FRI NIGHT
TO MVFR-IFR.

SATURDAY...PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS...
WILL IMPROVE. SCT SHRA/TSRA SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH SAT NIGHT...
WITH LOCAL MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS. SW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KT
MAINLY ALONG THE COAST SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING.

SUNDAY...SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS LINGER...BUT SHOULD END LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

NEW SET OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE UP TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT.
EXPECT NEAR SHORE WATERS TO SEE GUSTS NEAR 25 KTS...JUST LIKE
YESTERDAY. OTHERWISE SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
INCREASING OUTER WATER SEAS TO 5FT.

IN ADDITION...AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ON THE
WATERS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...SUBSTANTIALLY REDUCING
VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY...LIGHT N-NE WINDS BECOME E DURING THE DAY...THEN SHIFT TO
S-SW FRI NIGHT. EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SW WINDS MAY BRIEFLY GUST TO 25 KT DURING SAT ON
THE EASTERN WATERS...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECTING GUSTS UP TO 20 KT. SEAS BUILD AGAIN TO
AROUND 5 FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR ANZ230-236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ235-237-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 270843
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
443 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE THROUGH TOMORROW.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY...
WITH TODAY AND TOMORROW HAVING THE HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
STORMS. COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS ARRIVE LATE THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
4 AM UPDATE...

SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND REMAINS IN THE WARM...MOIST AIRMASS EARLY THIS
MORNING. TEMPS ARE STILL IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WITH A FEW SITES
STILL AT 70F AS OF 4AM! SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
MORNING ALLOWING FOR THE LOW LEVELS TO MOISTEN UP BRINGING IN
STRATUS AND FOG.

HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST MAINLY FOR VSBYS AND FOG POTENTIAL AS IT IS
NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED. IN FACT...ONLY THE
VINEYARD SHOWS VSBYS BELOW 5 SM. OTHERWISE THE BULK OF THE FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK.

TODAY...

WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR TODAY. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
GUST BETWEEN 20-30 KTS AS HIGH TEMPS WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID
80S.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY WORKS IT WAY EASTWARD ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. FEEL TODAY HAS THE BETTER POTENTIAL TO SEE A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND MODEST SOUTHERLY
FLOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CT AND WESTERN MA. ASIDE FROM THE ABUNDANT
MOISTURE...CAPE VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG WITH ABOUT
25 KTS OF SHEAR. PWAT VALUES WILL BE ABOUT 1.5 INCHES...COMBINED
WITH A DESCENT SOUTHERLY LLJ AND WARM CLOUD PROCESSES PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS...ANY THUNDERSTORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY
RAIN. HAVE CONTINUED ENHANCED WORDING TO THE FORECAST FOR HEAVY
RAIN. COULD SEE SOME STRONG WINDS GUSTS AS WELL...ESP ACROSS
FRANKLIN COUNTY.

SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP BY THE LATE AFTERNOON AND LINGER
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SPC HAS THE PIONEER VALLEY IN A SLIGHT RISK
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. AN ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUST CANNOT BE
RULED OUT...BUT OVERALL FEEL IS THAT STORMS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SEVERE LIMITS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE QUESTION FOR THIS EVENING IS HOW FAR EAST THE CONVECTION WILL
GET. BELIEVE THAT THE MARINE INFLUENCE AND PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL MOST LIKELY WEAKEN THE STORMS CONSIDERABLY AS THEY MOVE
NEAR THE CENTRAL HILL OF WORCESTER COUNTY. IN FACT BELIEVE PRECIP
WILL STRUGGLE AFTER 3/4Z.

AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTH COAST BY THE
EVENING HOURS LIMITING VISIBILITIES. DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...

MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
AREAS OF FOG ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST/CAPE AND ISLANDS.
SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE LOCALLY DENSE FOG.

POPS DO SLOWLY INCREASE TO LOW CHANCE FOR THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE REGION OVERNIGHT AS THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH REMAINS NEARBY AND
ELEVATED INSTABILITY COULD PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS.

TOMORROW...

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON
THURSDAY PUSHING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. 00Z GUIDANCE SHOWS
THE FRONT PUSHING THROUGH BY THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS WHICH COULD
BE A SOURCE OF LIFT FOR ANY CONVECTION. HOWEVER APPEARS THAT THE BETTER
DYNAMICS WILL BE NORTH OF THE REGION...IN MAINE AND NEW
HAMPSHIRE. STILL CANT RULE OUT A FEW SCT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AS
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A NARROW CORRIDOR OF HEATING WITH DESCENT SHEAR
BETWEEN 25-30 KTS AND MARGINAL MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

PWAT VALUES ARE STILL HIGH...AROUND 1.6 INCHES WHICH MAY YIELD TO
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITHIN ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS GUIDANCE RUNS. MAIN SYNOPTIC PATTERN
REMAINS LARGELY IN PLACE THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEK...WITH A
DEEP RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THIS WILL KEEP THE
HEAT AND HUMIDITY IN PLACE. WILL LIKELY HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL LATE
THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR A REPRIEVE...AS THIS RIDGE
GRADUALLY MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE.

GENERALLY FAVORED A CONSENSUS BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OVER
THE RELATIVELY MINOR DIFFERENCES INTO THIS WEEKEND. THESE
DIFFERENCES BECOME MORE SIGNIFICANT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. STILL
FAVORED A CONSENSUS BLEND TO DEAL WITH THE UNCERTAINTY.

DETAILS...

THURSDAY NIGHT...WILL SEE AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...DEVELOP
ACROSS SOUTH COASTAL AREAS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS END
FROM WEST TO EAST.

FRIDAY...EXPECTING A MAINLY DRY DAY...AS OUR REGION IS BETWEEN
TWO SYSTEMS...WITH WEAK SURFACE RIDGING. IT SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY
LESS HUMID...BUT STILL MUGGY.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REPOSITIONS OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD...SO
SW WINDS INCREASE AGAIN...BRINGING A RETURN OF MORE HUMID AIR.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT STARTS TO APPROACH OUT OF GREAT LAKES AND
WESTERN QUEBEC. ALSO NOTING INCREASING INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. WE COULD SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD LAST THOUGH SAT NIGHT. WITH THE HUMIDITY
ALREADY IN PLACE...HEAVIER DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
CONVECTION.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
MORNING...THEN REACHES THE SOUTH COAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECTING
AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE SLOW
MOVEMENT OF THIS FRONT...EXPECTING SCT RAINFALL TO CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...SOMEWHAT LOWER CONFIDENCE DUE TO TIMING AND
PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES WITH A FRONT...AND WHETHER IT STALLS NEAR
THE SOUTH COAST OR OFFSHORE. AT THIS POINT...KEPT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. LOW
PROBABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY...THEN INSTABILITY WORKS
OFFSHORE.

HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING FOR SOUTHERN AREAS INTO TUESDAY
AS FRONT LOOKS TO LINGER NEARBY...THEN MAY TRY TO MAKE A RUN BACK
NE AS THE HIGH PUSHES OFF INTO THE GULF OF MAINE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

BEFORE 12Z...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. COULD SEE IFR CIGS AND VSBYS
ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE AND ISLANDS. OTHERWISE VFR AREA WIDE.

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR/MVFR WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
SOUTH COAST WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION IS VFR. WESTERN
SITES COULD DROP TO MVFR WITHIN ANY -SHRA/-TSRA THAT DEVELOPS.
EXPECT SW WINDS TO GUST UP TO 20-30 KT AT TIMES MAINLY ACROSS
RI/SE MA.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO IFR
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS AS MARITIME FOG AND
STRATUS ROLL IN.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE
REGION SWITCHING THE SOUTHERLY WINDS TO THE WEST DURING THE DAY.
IFR...FOG AND STRATUS IS POSSIBLE BEFORE FRONTAL PASSAGE ALONG SE
TAF SITES. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS/T-STORMS ALONG THE FRONT
DROPPING CONDITIONS TO MVFR. OTHERWISE VFR WILL PREVAIL.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. COULD SEE CONDITIONS DROP
TO MVFR WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORM TODAY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY...VFR. MAY SEE LOCAL MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS EARLY MORNING
ALONG S COAST IN PATCHY FOG...THEN MAY LOWER AGAIN LATE FRI NIGHT
TO MVFR-IFR.

SATURDAY...PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS...
WILL IMPROVE. SCT SHRA/TSRA SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH SAT NIGHT...
WITH LOCAL MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS. SW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KT
MAINLY ALONG THE COAST SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING.

SUNDAY...SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS LINGER...BUT SHOULD END LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

NEW SET OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE UP TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT.
EXPECT NEAR SHORE WATERS TO SEE GUSTS NEAR 25 KTS...JUST LIKE
YESTERDAY. OTHERWISE SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
INCREASING OUTER WATER SEAS TO 5FT.

IN ADDITION...AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ON THE
WATERS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...SUBSTANTIALLY REDUCING
VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY...LIGHT N-NE WINDS BECOME E DURING THE DAY...THEN SHIFT TO
S-SW FRI NIGHT. EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SW WINDS MAY BRIEFLY GUST TO 25 KT DURING SAT ON
THE EASTERN WATERS...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECTING GUSTS UP TO 20 KT. SEAS BUILD AGAIN TO
AROUND 5 FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR ANZ230-236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ235-237-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN



  [top]

000
FXUS61 KALY 270842
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
442 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY.  AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WELL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL FOCUS SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING.  THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
THURSDAY WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH DRIER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

AS OF 423 AM EDT...A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IS OVER THE
FCST AREA THIS MORNING WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S TO L70S. A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED ALONG THE EAST COAST CONTINUES TO
FUNNEL IN THE HUMID AIR. UPSTREAM ON THE WATER VAPOR LOOP AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE WRN GREAT
LAKES REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL ARRIVE ON THU...A SHORT-WAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE OH VALLEY INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES...WRN NY AND
PA THIS MORNING...AND A PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH WILL BE THE LIFTING
MECHANISMS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. SOME LOCAL
CSTAR WORK WITH SUNYA HAS SHOWN THAT PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGHS CAN
YIELD SOME SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WX EVENTS ACROSS NY AND NEW ENGLAND.

SPC HAS THE ENTIRE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK...ACTUALLY IT IS A VERY
LARGE AREA THAT EXTENDS FROM NRN ME TO DC WITH THE LATEST DAY 1
GRAPHIC. THERE IS PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH SFC
DEWPTS IN THE LOWER TO M60S...AND SOME SPOTTY U60S. PWATS WILL
RISE TO THE 1.25-1.75 INCH RANGE WITH SOME ISOLATED VALUES CLOSER
TO 2"...ESPECIALLY WHERE IT RAINS BASED ON THE BUFKIT AND MODEL
PROFILES. THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES INCREASE TO 30-40 KTS BY
THE LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH THE GREATER SHEAR
FROM ROUGHLY THE I-90 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD...AND LESSER AMOUNTS TO
THE SOUTH. INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO BE VARIABLE ON THE GUIDANCE
DUE TO THE VARYING AMOUNTS OF CLOUD COVER...AND SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE SHOWING SFC DEWPTS IN THE LOWER 70S. CAN NOT REALLY FIND
ANY 70F DEWPT AIR UNLESS ONE GOES INTO THE LOWER MID ATLANTIC
REGION. THEREFORE...LEANING CLOSER TO THE GFS SBCAPE PROFILES WITH
1000-2000 J/KG OF INSTABILITY...WITH SOME SLIGHTLY LOWER AMOUNTS
AND POSSIBLE SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS. IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST
INTERSECTION OF THE SHEAR AND CAPE PROFILES WILL BE IN THE NOON TO
6 PM TIME FRAME. THE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT VERY STEEP
BASED ON THE NAM/GFS/EC GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME HIGH
DCAPE VALUES PROGGED AROUND THE 1000 J/KG RANGE. THE SOUNDINGS ARE
VERY UNIDIRECTIONAL...AND THE ORGANIZED CONVECTION WOULD LIKELY
FAVOR MULTICELLS EVOLVING INTO A FEW CLUSTERS OR LINES OF STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH BOWING SEGMENTS AND DAMAGING WINDS
THE MAIN THREATS. WE HAVE PHRASED THE ZONES AS CHC OF
THUNDERSTORMS...AND SOME MAY BE SEVERE.

THE LATEST HRRR LAYER COMP REF PRODUCT FAVORS THE CONVECTION
DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN NOON AND 3 PM FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
WEST. MULTICELLS FORMING INTO CLUSTERS AND LINES ARE THE MODE
DEPICTED. THE ANOMALOUS PWAT VALUES AND MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL FAVOR HEAVY RAINFALL. THE CELLS SHOULD BE MOVING
ALONG...BUT THE PARCHED GROUND MAY NOT ALLOW ABSORPTION QUICKLY
AND RUNOFF COULD BE AN ISSUE FOR AN ISOLD FLASH FLOOD. THE HYDRO
SERVICE AREA DESPERATELY NEEDS THE RAIN...SINCE MOST AREAS ARE IN
D1 OR A MODERATE DROUGHT.

THE MAIN POTENTIAL INHIBITORS FOR A MAJOR/WIDESPREAD SEVERE EVENT
FOR THE CWA WOULD BE CLOUDS LIMITING THE INSTABILITY AND THE WEAK
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ALSO...THE BETTER JET DYNAMICS LAG UPSTREAM
TIED TO THE UPPER TROUGH AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT FOR THU
MORNING. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE A H250 JET STREAK DOES
GET CLOSE TO W-CNTRL NY BTWN 18Z- 00Z. OVERALL...WE DO FEEL
CONFIDENT THAT THE FCST AREA WILL GET SOME ACTIVE OR SEVERE
WX...JUST NOT CLEAR IF IT WILL BE A MINOR OR MAJOR EVENT. HIGH
TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEY
AREAS...AND 70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...THE SFC TROUGH MOVES THROUGH WITH THE SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ENDING IN THE EARLY EVENING. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
LULL IN THE ACTIVITY...BUT THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
APPROACHING THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND WRN NY. SOME SLIGHT AND
LOW CHC POPS WERE KEPT IN WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY BTWN
09Z-12Z SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
LOWS WILL STILL BE MILD IN THE MID AND U60S IN THE VALLEY
AREAS...AND U50S TO L60S OVER THE MTNS.

THU...THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE IN AGREEMENT WITH A FASTER
PROGRESSION OF THE SFC COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH. IF
IT LAGS A LITTLE...THEN THE SOUTHEAST EXTREME OF THE FCST AREA /MID
HUDSON VALLEY...SRN BERKS...AND NW CT/ WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED
FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. RIGHT NOW...ALL OF OUR
FCST AREA IS IN A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK. THE INSTABILITY
LOOKS MUCH LESS THAN TODAYS...AND THE BETTER DYNAMICS WITH THE
UPPER JET GOES N/NE INTO SRN QUEBEC...NRN NY...AND NRN NEW
ENGLAND. A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN
EVERYWHERE INTO THE EARLY TO MID PM...THEN QUICKLY DIMINISHED FROM
THE W/NW TO S/SE. MAX TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY WITH THE COLD ADVECTION
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...AND STRONG MIXING OR DOWNSLOPING
OCCURRING. EXPECT BRISK W/NW WINDS DURING THE PM. H850 TEMPS FALL
TO +8C TO +13C BY THE 00Z/FRI FROM NW TO SE OVER THE AREA. HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE U60S TO L70S OVER THE SRN DACKS/W-CNTRL MOHAWK
VALLEY TO M70S TO L80S OVER THE REST OF THE REGION...EXCEPT SOME
U60S/L70S OVER THE CATSKILLS/SRN GREENS...AND M80S OVER THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

THU NIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES DOWNSTREAM...AND BRISK
W/NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS SFC ANTICYCLONE RIDGES IN FROM THE
NORTH AND WEST EARLY ON...AND SETTLES OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND BY
FRI MORNING. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL DECREASE COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE M40S TO L50S OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND
U50S OVER THE VALLEY AREAS.

FRIDAY...THE SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...AND
THE SFC HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSE THE WEEK. THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE WILL BE IN CONTROL AGAIN. A DRY AND LESS HUMID DAY IS
EXPECTED...BUT THE S/SW FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT UPSTREAM. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND 70S TO NEAR
80F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE FAIRLY NICE
STILL WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRI NITE-SAT SHOULD TREND BACK TO
NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL SUN-TUE...AS THE EAST COAST UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
DEAMPLIFIES WITH THE APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM SOUTHERN
CANADA. AS IT DEAMPLIFIES...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
SOMETIME LATE SAT OR EARLY SUN. THIS SHOULD BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. DEPENDING ON ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE INCOMING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES/SE CANADA...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE COLD
FRONT SLOWS DOWN AND/OR A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG IT AND TRACKS SOUTH OF
THE REGION. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...SHOWERS COULD LINGER IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT FOR SUN INTO TUE...BUT MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.

WARM AND SOMEWHAT HUMID FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON
SATURDAY...THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT WILL BOOST TEMPS TO HIGHS
IN THE 80S ACROSS THE REGION...BUT SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR OFF THE
ATLANTIC WILL RESULT IN THE COOLEST TEMPS OCCURRING OVER SOUTHERN
AREAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL ALSO INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION...AND HAVE FORECAST POPS TO RISE TO LOW CHANCE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST BY LATE AFTERNOON...RANGING UP TO LIKELY POPS OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS. SATURDAY NIGHT POPS CONTINUE TO RISE...REACHING LIKELY
LEVELS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS OVER THE
SOUTHERN FOURTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 40S OVER THE ADIRONDACKS...TO THE LOWER 60S OVER THE
FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.

DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF A WAVE ALONG THE FRONT...POPS FOR SUNDAY
REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH...BETWEEN 40 AND 50 PERCENT DURING THE MORNING...
AND 30 TO 45 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
OVER THE SOUTH. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE 60S TO MID 70S.

STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR THE FRONT TO BECOME STATIONARY FAR ENOUGH
NORTH TO RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. HAVE FORECAST EITHER DRY CONDITIONS OR SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FROM THE ADIRONDACKS TO THE LAKE GEORGE AREA DURING THIS
PERIOD. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MOST OTHER AREAS...AND LOW CHANCE POPS
OVER THE EXTREME SOUTH. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO
LOWER 50S. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S ONCE AGAIN...AND HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL MAINTAIN A WARM
AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF TAF
SITES THROUGH 18Z ON WEDNESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE A PERIOD OF
FOG AND STRATUS AT KPSF BETWEEN 08Z AND 13Z EARLY THIS MORNING.
AFTER 18Z...EXPECT A BAND OF AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH IN THE
FORECAST AFTER 18Z AT ALL THE TAF SITES...AND A PROB30 GROUP FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS (WIND
GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH) BETWEEN 18Z AND 22Z AT KGFL/KALB/KPOU...AND
19Z TO 23Z AT KPSF.

WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY AT 5-10 KT AT KALB...AND LIGHT AND
VARIABLE ELSEWHERE THROUGH A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. AFTER 13Z
WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST TO
8-12 KT...WITH GUSTS OF 15-20 KT BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.


OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY.  AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WELL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL FOCUS SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
THURSDAY WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH DRIER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 45 TO 60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
INCREASE TO 70 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND THE DECREASE TO 35 TO
55 PERCENT ON THURSDAY.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH
TODAY WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH...THEN 5 TO 15 MPH TONIGHT. THE WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME
GUSTS TO 30 MPH ON THURSDAY WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED MODERATE
DROUGHT AT THIS TIME.

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING ARE EXPECTED TODAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.25-1.75 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TODAY...SO STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS. AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD MAY BE POSSIBLE
IF STORMS REPEATEDLY MOVE OVER THE SAME AREA...OR THE DRY/PARCHED
GROUND DOES NOT ABSORB THE RAINFALL QUICKLY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA



000
FXUS61 KALY 270842
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
442 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY.  AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WELL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL FOCUS SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING.  THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
THURSDAY WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH DRIER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

AS OF 423 AM EDT...A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IS OVER THE
FCST AREA THIS MORNING WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S TO L70S. A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED ALONG THE EAST COAST CONTINUES TO
FUNNEL IN THE HUMID AIR. UPSTREAM ON THE WATER VAPOR LOOP AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE WRN GREAT
LAKES REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL ARRIVE ON THU...A SHORT-WAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE OH VALLEY INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES...WRN NY AND
PA THIS MORNING...AND A PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH WILL BE THE LIFTING
MECHANISMS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. SOME LOCAL
CSTAR WORK WITH SUNYA HAS SHOWN THAT PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGHS CAN
YIELD SOME SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WX EVENTS ACROSS NY AND NEW ENGLAND.

SPC HAS THE ENTIRE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK...ACTUALLY IT IS A VERY
LARGE AREA THAT EXTENDS FROM NRN ME TO DC WITH THE LATEST DAY 1
GRAPHIC. THERE IS PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH SFC
DEWPTS IN THE LOWER TO M60S...AND SOME SPOTTY U60S. PWATS WILL
RISE TO THE 1.25-1.75 INCH RANGE WITH SOME ISOLATED VALUES CLOSER
TO 2"...ESPECIALLY WHERE IT RAINS BASED ON THE BUFKIT AND MODEL
PROFILES. THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES INCREASE TO 30-40 KTS BY
THE LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH THE GREATER SHEAR
FROM ROUGHLY THE I-90 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD...AND LESSER AMOUNTS TO
THE SOUTH. INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO BE VARIABLE ON THE GUIDANCE
DUE TO THE VARYING AMOUNTS OF CLOUD COVER...AND SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE SHOWING SFC DEWPTS IN THE LOWER 70S. CAN NOT REALLY FIND
ANY 70F DEWPT AIR UNLESS ONE GOES INTO THE LOWER MID ATLANTIC
REGION. THEREFORE...LEANING CLOSER TO THE GFS SBCAPE PROFILES WITH
1000-2000 J/KG OF INSTABILITY...WITH SOME SLIGHTLY LOWER AMOUNTS
AND POSSIBLE SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS. IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST
INTERSECTION OF THE SHEAR AND CAPE PROFILES WILL BE IN THE NOON TO
6 PM TIME FRAME. THE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT VERY STEEP
BASED ON THE NAM/GFS/EC GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME HIGH
DCAPE VALUES PROGGED AROUND THE 1000 J/KG RANGE. THE SOUNDINGS ARE
VERY UNIDIRECTIONAL...AND THE ORGANIZED CONVECTION WOULD LIKELY
FAVOR MULTICELLS EVOLVING INTO A FEW CLUSTERS OR LINES OF STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH BOWING SEGMENTS AND DAMAGING WINDS
THE MAIN THREATS. WE HAVE PHRASED THE ZONES AS CHC OF
THUNDERSTORMS...AND SOME MAY BE SEVERE.

THE LATEST HRRR LAYER COMP REF PRODUCT FAVORS THE CONVECTION
DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN NOON AND 3 PM FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
WEST. MULTICELLS FORMING INTO CLUSTERS AND LINES ARE THE MODE
DEPICTED. THE ANOMALOUS PWAT VALUES AND MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL FAVOR HEAVY RAINFALL. THE CELLS SHOULD BE MOVING
ALONG...BUT THE PARCHED GROUND MAY NOT ALLOW ABSORPTION QUICKLY
AND RUNOFF COULD BE AN ISSUE FOR AN ISOLD FLASH FLOOD. THE HYDRO
SERVICE AREA DESPERATELY NEEDS THE RAIN...SINCE MOST AREAS ARE IN
D1 OR A MODERATE DROUGHT.

THE MAIN POTENTIAL INHIBITORS FOR A MAJOR/WIDESPREAD SEVERE EVENT
FOR THE CWA WOULD BE CLOUDS LIMITING THE INSTABILITY AND THE WEAK
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ALSO...THE BETTER JET DYNAMICS LAG UPSTREAM
TIED TO THE UPPER TROUGH AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT FOR THU
MORNING. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE A H250 JET STREAK DOES
GET CLOSE TO W-CNTRL NY BTWN 18Z- 00Z. OVERALL...WE DO FEEL
CONFIDENT THAT THE FCST AREA WILL GET SOME ACTIVE OR SEVERE
WX...JUST NOT CLEAR IF IT WILL BE A MINOR OR MAJOR EVENT. HIGH
TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEY
AREAS...AND 70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...THE SFC TROUGH MOVES THROUGH WITH THE SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ENDING IN THE EARLY EVENING. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
LULL IN THE ACTIVITY...BUT THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
APPROACHING THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND WRN NY. SOME SLIGHT AND
LOW CHC POPS WERE KEPT IN WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY BTWN
09Z-12Z SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
LOWS WILL STILL BE MILD IN THE MID AND U60S IN THE VALLEY
AREAS...AND U50S TO L60S OVER THE MTNS.

THU...THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE IN AGREEMENT WITH A FASTER
PROGRESSION OF THE SFC COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH. IF
IT LAGS A LITTLE...THEN THE SOUTHEAST EXTREME OF THE FCST AREA /MID
HUDSON VALLEY...SRN BERKS...AND NW CT/ WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED
FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. RIGHT NOW...ALL OF OUR
FCST AREA IS IN A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK. THE INSTABILITY
LOOKS MUCH LESS THAN TODAYS...AND THE BETTER DYNAMICS WITH THE
UPPER JET GOES N/NE INTO SRN QUEBEC...NRN NY...AND NRN NEW
ENGLAND. A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN
EVERYWHERE INTO THE EARLY TO MID PM...THEN QUICKLY DIMINISHED FROM
THE W/NW TO S/SE. MAX TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY WITH THE COLD ADVECTION
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...AND STRONG MIXING OR DOWNSLOPING
OCCURRING. EXPECT BRISK W/NW WINDS DURING THE PM. H850 TEMPS FALL
TO +8C TO +13C BY THE 00Z/FRI FROM NW TO SE OVER THE AREA. HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE U60S TO L70S OVER THE SRN DACKS/W-CNTRL MOHAWK
VALLEY TO M70S TO L80S OVER THE REST OF THE REGION...EXCEPT SOME
U60S/L70S OVER THE CATSKILLS/SRN GREENS...AND M80S OVER THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

THU NIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES DOWNSTREAM...AND BRISK
W/NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS SFC ANTICYCLONE RIDGES IN FROM THE
NORTH AND WEST EARLY ON...AND SETTLES OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND BY
FRI MORNING. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL DECREASE COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE M40S TO L50S OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND
U50S OVER THE VALLEY AREAS.

FRIDAY...THE SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...AND
THE SFC HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSE THE WEEK. THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE WILL BE IN CONTROL AGAIN. A DRY AND LESS HUMID DAY IS
EXPECTED...BUT THE S/SW FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT UPSTREAM. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND 70S TO NEAR
80F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE FAIRLY NICE
STILL WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRI NITE-SAT SHOULD TREND BACK TO
NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL SUN-TUE...AS THE EAST COAST UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
DEAMPLIFIES WITH THE APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM SOUTHERN
CANADA. AS IT DEAMPLIFIES...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
SOMETIME LATE SAT OR EARLY SUN. THIS SHOULD BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. DEPENDING ON ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE INCOMING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES/SE CANADA...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE COLD
FRONT SLOWS DOWN AND/OR A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG IT AND TRACKS SOUTH OF
THE REGION. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...SHOWERS COULD LINGER IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT FOR SUN INTO TUE...BUT MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.

WARM AND SOMEWHAT HUMID FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON
SATURDAY...THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT WILL BOOST TEMPS TO HIGHS
IN THE 80S ACROSS THE REGION...BUT SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR OFF THE
ATLANTIC WILL RESULT IN THE COOLEST TEMPS OCCURRING OVER SOUTHERN
AREAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL ALSO INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION...AND HAVE FORECAST POPS TO RISE TO LOW CHANCE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST BY LATE AFTERNOON...RANGING UP TO LIKELY POPS OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS. SATURDAY NIGHT POPS CONTINUE TO RISE...REACHING LIKELY
LEVELS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS OVER THE
SOUTHERN FOURTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 40S OVER THE ADIRONDACKS...TO THE LOWER 60S OVER THE
FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.

DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF A WAVE ALONG THE FRONT...POPS FOR SUNDAY
REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH...BETWEEN 40 AND 50 PERCENT DURING THE MORNING...
AND 30 TO 45 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
OVER THE SOUTH. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE 60S TO MID 70S.

STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR THE FRONT TO BECOME STATIONARY FAR ENOUGH
NORTH TO RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. HAVE FORECAST EITHER DRY CONDITIONS OR SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FROM THE ADIRONDACKS TO THE LAKE GEORGE AREA DURING THIS
PERIOD. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MOST OTHER AREAS...AND LOW CHANCE POPS
OVER THE EXTREME SOUTH. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO
LOWER 50S. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S ONCE AGAIN...AND HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL MAINTAIN A WARM
AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF TAF
SITES THROUGH 18Z ON WEDNESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE A PERIOD OF
FOG AND STRATUS AT KPSF BETWEEN 08Z AND 13Z EARLY THIS MORNING.
AFTER 18Z...EXPECT A BAND OF AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH IN THE
FORECAST AFTER 18Z AT ALL THE TAF SITES...AND A PROB30 GROUP FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS (WIND
GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH) BETWEEN 18Z AND 22Z AT KGFL/KALB/KPOU...AND
19Z TO 23Z AT KPSF.

WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY AT 5-10 KT AT KALB...AND LIGHT AND
VARIABLE ELSEWHERE THROUGH A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. AFTER 13Z
WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST TO
8-12 KT...WITH GUSTS OF 15-20 KT BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.


OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY.  AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WELL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL FOCUS SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
THURSDAY WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH DRIER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 45 TO 60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
INCREASE TO 70 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND THE DECREASE TO 35 TO
55 PERCENT ON THURSDAY.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH
TODAY WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH...THEN 5 TO 15 MPH TONIGHT. THE WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME
GUSTS TO 30 MPH ON THURSDAY WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED MODERATE
DROUGHT AT THIS TIME.

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING ARE EXPECTED TODAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.25-1.75 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TODAY...SO STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS. AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD MAY BE POSSIBLE
IF STORMS REPEATEDLY MOVE OVER THE SAME AREA...OR THE DRY/PARCHED
GROUND DOES NOT ABSORB THE RAINFALL QUICKLY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 270840
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
440 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY.  AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WELL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL FOCUS SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING.  THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
THURSDAY WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH DRIER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
     STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

AS OF 423 AM EDT...A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IS OVER THE
FCST AREA THIS MORNING WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S TO L70S. A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED ALONG THE EAST COAST CONTINUES TO
FUNNEL IN THE HUMID AIR. UPSTREAM ON THE WATER VAPOR LOOP AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE WRN GREAT
LAKES REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL ARRIVE ON THU...A SHORT-WAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE OH VALLEY INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES...WRN NY AND
PA THIS MORNING...AND A PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH WILL BE THE LIFTING
MECHANISMS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. SOME LOCAL
CSTAR WORK WITH SUNYA HAS SHOWN THAT PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGHS CAN
YIELD SOME SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WX EVENTS ACROSS NY AND NEW ENGLAND.

SPC HAS THE ENTIRE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK...ACTUALLY IT IS A VERY
LARGE AREA THAT EXTENDS FROM NRN ME TO DC WITH THE LATEST DAY 1
GRAPHIC. THERE IS PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH SFC
DEWPTS IN THE LOWER TO M60S...AND SOME SPOTTY U60S. PWATS WILL
RISE TO THE 1.25-1.75 INCH RANGE WITH SOME ISOLATED VALUES CLOSER
TO 2"...ESPECIALLY WHERE IT RAINS BASED ON THE BUFKIT AND MODEL
PROFILES. THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES INCREASE TO 30-40 KTS BY
THE LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH THE GREATER SHEAR
FROM ROUGHLY THE I-90 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD...AND LESSER AMOUNTS TO
THE SOUTH. INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO BE VARIABLE ON THE GUIDANCE
DUE TO THE VARYING AMOUNTS OF CLOUD COVER...AND SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE SHOWING SFC DEWPTS IN THE LOWER 70S. CAN NOT REALLY FIND
ANY 70F DEWPT AIR UNLESS ONE GOES INTO THE LOWER MID ATLANTIC
REGION. THEREFORE...LEANING CLOSER TO THE GFS SBCAPE PROFILES WITH
1000-2000 J/KG OF INSTABILITY...WITH SOME SLIGHTLY LOWER AMOUNTS
AND POSSIBLE SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS. IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST
INTERSECTION OF THE SHEAR AND CAPE PROFILES WILL BE IN THE NOON TO
6 PM TIME FRAME. THE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT VERY STEEP
BASED ON THE NAM/GFS/EC GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME HIGH
DCAPE VALUES PROGGED AROUND THE 1000 J/KG RANGE. THE SOUNDINGS ARE
VERY UNIDIRECTIONAL...AND THE ORGANIZED CONVECTION WOULD LIKELY
FAVOR MULTICELLS EVOLVING INTO A FEW CLUSTERS OR LINES OF STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH BOWING SEGMENTS AND DAMAGING WINDS
THE MAIN THREATS. WE HAVE PHRASED THE ZONES AS CHC OF
THUNDERSTORMS...AND SOME MAY BE SEVERE.

THE LATEST HRRR LAYER COMP REF PRODUCT FAVORS THE CONVECTION
DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN NOON AND 3 PM FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
WEST. MULTICELLS FORMING INTO CLUSTERS AND LINES ARE THE MODE
DEPICTED. THE ANOMALOUS PWAT VALUES AND MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL FAVOR HEAVY RAINFALL. THE CELLS SHOULD BE MOVING
ALONG...BUT THE PARCHED GROUND MAY NOT ALLOW ABSORPTION QUICKLY
AND RUNOFF COULD BE AN ISSUE FOR AN ISOLD FLASH FLOOD. THE HYDRO
SERVICE AREA DESPERATELY NEEDS THE RAIN...SINCE MOST AREAS ARE IN
D1 OR A MODERATE DROUGHT.

THE MAIN POTENTIAL INHIBITORS FOR A MAJOR/WIDESPREAD SEVERE EVENT
FOR THE CWA WOULD BE CLOUDS LIMITING THE INSTABILITY AND THE WEAK
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ALSO...THE BETTER JET DYNAMICS LAG UPSTREAM
TIED TO THE UPPER TROUGH AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT FOR THU
MORNING. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE A H250 JET STREAK DOES
GET CLOSE TO W-CNTRL NY BTWN 18Z- 00Z. OVERALL...WE DO FEEL
CONFIDENT THAT THE FCST AREA WILL GET SOME ACTIVE OR SEVERE
WX...JUST NOT CLEAR IF IT WILL BE A MINOR OR MAJOR EVENT. HIGH
TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEY
AREAS...AND 70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...THE SFC TROUGH MOVES THROUGH WITH THE SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ENDING IN THE EARLY EVENING. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
LULL IN THE ACTIVITY...BUT THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
APPROACHING THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND WRN NY. SOME SLIGHT AND
LOW CHC POPS WERE KEPT IN WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY BTWN
09Z-12Z SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
LOWS WILL STILL BE MILD IN THE MID AND U60S IN THE VALLEY
AREAS...AND U50S TO L60S OVER THE MTNS.

THU...THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE IN AGREEMENT WITH A FASTER
PROGRESSION OF THE SFC COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH. IF
IT LAGS A LITTLE...THEN THE SOUTHEAST EXTREME OF THE FCST AREA /MID
HUDSON VALLEY...SRN BERKS...AND NW CT/ WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED
FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. RIGHT NOW...ALL OF OUR
FCST AREA IS IN A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK. THE INSTABILITY
LOOKS MUCH LESS THAN TODAYS...AND THE BETTER DYNAMICS WITH THE
UPPER JET GOES N/NE INTO SRN QUEBEC...NRN NY...AND NRN NEW
ENGLAND. A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN
EVERYWHERE INTO THE EARLY TO MID PM...THEN QUICKLY DIMINISHED FROM
THE W/NW TO S/SE. MAX TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY WITH THE COLD ADVECTION
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...AND STRONG MIXING OR DOWNSLOPING
OCCURRING. EXPECT BRISK W/NW WINDS DURING THE PM. H850 TEMPS FALL
TO +8C TO +13C BY THE 00Z/FRI FROM NW TO SE OVER THE AREA. HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE U60S TO L70S OVER THE SRN DACKS/W-CNTRL MOHAWK
VALLEY TO M70S TO L80S OVER THE REST OF THE REGION...EXCEPT SOME
U60S/L70S OVER THE CATSKILLS/SRN GREENS...AND M80S OVER THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

THU NIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES DOWNSTREAM...AND BRISK
W/NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS SFC ANTICYCLONE RIDGES IN FROM THE
NORTH AND WEST EARLY ON...AND SETTLES OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND BY
FRI MORNING. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL DECREASE COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE M40S TO L50S OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND
U50S OVER THE VALLEY AREAS.

FRIDAY...THE SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...AND
THE SFC HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSE THE WEEK. THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE WILL BE IN CONTROL AGAIN. A DRY AND LESS HUMID DAY IS
EXPECTED...BUT THE S/SW FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT UPSTREAM. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND 70S TO NEAR
80F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE FAIRLY NICE
STILL WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRI NITE-SAT SHOULD TREND BACK TO
NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL SUN-TUE...AS THE EAST COAST UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
DEAMPLIFIES WITH THE APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM SOUTHERN
CANADA. AS IT DEAMPLIFIES...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
SOMETIME LATE SAT OR EARLY SUN. THIS SHOULD BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. DEPENDING ON ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE INCOMING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES/SE CANADA...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE COLD
FRONT SLOWS DOWN AND/OR A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG IT AND TRACKS SOUTH OF
THE REGION. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...SHOWERS COULD LINGER IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT FOR SUN INTO TUE...BUT MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.

WARM AND SOMEWHAT HUMID FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON
SATURDAY...THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT WILL BOOST TEMPS TO HIGHS
IN THE 80S ACROSS THE REGION...BUT SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR OFF THE
ATLANTIC WILL RESULT IN THE COOLEST TEMPS OCCURRING OVER SOUTHERN
AREAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL ALSO INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION...AND HAVE FORECAST POPS TO RISE TO LOW CHANCE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST BY LATE AFTERNOON...RANGING UP TO LIKELY POPS OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS. SATURDAY NIGHT POPS CONTINUE TO RISE...REACHING LIKELY
LEVELS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS OVER THE
SOUTHERN FOURTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 40S OVER THE ADIRONDACKS...TO THE LOWER 60S OVER THE
FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.

DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF A WAVE ALONG THE FRONT...POPS FOR SUNDAY
REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH...BETWEEN 40 AND 50 PERCENT DURING THE MORNING...
AND 30 TO 45 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
OVER THE SOUTH. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE 60S TO MID 70S.

STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR THE FRONT TO BECOME STATIONARY FAR ENOUGH
NORTH TO RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. HAVE FORECAST EITHER DRY CONDITIONS OR SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FROM THE ADIRONDACKS TO THE LAKE GEORGE AREA DURING THIS
PERIOD. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MOST OTHER AREAS...AND LOW CHANCE POPS
OVER THE EXTREME SOUTH. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO
LOWER 50S. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S ONCE AGAIN...AND HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL MAINTAIN A WARM
AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF TAF
SITES THROUGH 18Z ON WEDNESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE A PERIOD OF
FOG AND STRATUS AT KPSF BETWEEN 08Z AND 13Z EARLY THIS MORNING.
AFTER 18Z...EXPECT A BAND OF AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH IN THE
FORECAST AFTER 18Z AT ALL THE TAF SITES...AND A PROB30 GROUP FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS (WIND
GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH) BETWEEN 18Z AND 22Z AT KGFL/KALB/KPOU...AND
19Z TO 23Z AT KPSF.

WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY AT 5-10 KT AT KALB...AND LIGHT AND
VARIABLE ELSEWHERE THROUGH A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. AFTER 13Z
WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST TO
8-12 KT...WITH GUSTS OF 15-20 KT BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.


OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY.  AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WELL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL FOCUS SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
THURSDAY WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH DRIER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 45 TO 60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
INCREASE TO 70 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND THE DECREASE TO 35 TO
55 PERCENT ON THURSDAY.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH
TODAY WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH...THEN 5 TO 15 MPH TONIGHT. THE WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME
GUSTS TO 30 MPH ON THURSDAY WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED MODERATE
DROUGHT AT THIS TIME.

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING ARE EXPECTED TODAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.25-1.75 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TODAY...SO STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS. AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD MAY BE POSSIBLE
IF STORMS REPEATEDLY MOVE OVER THE SAME AREA...OR THE DRY/PARCHED
GROUND DOES NOT ABSORB THE RAINFALL QUICKLY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...KL/GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA



000
FXUS61 KALY 270840
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
440 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY.  AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WELL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL FOCUS SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING.  THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
THURSDAY WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH DRIER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
     STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

AS OF 423 AM EDT...A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IS OVER THE
FCST AREA THIS MORNING WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S TO L70S. A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED ALONG THE EAST COAST CONTINUES TO
FUNNEL IN THE HUMID AIR. UPSTREAM ON THE WATER VAPOR LOOP AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE WRN GREAT
LAKES REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL ARRIVE ON THU...A SHORT-WAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE OH VALLEY INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES...WRN NY AND
PA THIS MORNING...AND A PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH WILL BE THE LIFTING
MECHANISMS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. SOME LOCAL
CSTAR WORK WITH SUNYA HAS SHOWN THAT PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGHS CAN
YIELD SOME SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WX EVENTS ACROSS NY AND NEW ENGLAND.

SPC HAS THE ENTIRE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK...ACTUALLY IT IS A VERY
LARGE AREA THAT EXTENDS FROM NRN ME TO DC WITH THE LATEST DAY 1
GRAPHIC. THERE IS PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH SFC
DEWPTS IN THE LOWER TO M60S...AND SOME SPOTTY U60S. PWATS WILL
RISE TO THE 1.25-1.75 INCH RANGE WITH SOME ISOLATED VALUES CLOSER
TO 2"...ESPECIALLY WHERE IT RAINS BASED ON THE BUFKIT AND MODEL
PROFILES. THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES INCREASE TO 30-40 KTS BY
THE LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH THE GREATER SHEAR
FROM ROUGHLY THE I-90 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD...AND LESSER AMOUNTS TO
THE SOUTH. INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO BE VARIABLE ON THE GUIDANCE
DUE TO THE VARYING AMOUNTS OF CLOUD COVER...AND SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE SHOWING SFC DEWPTS IN THE LOWER 70S. CAN NOT REALLY FIND
ANY 70F DEWPT AIR UNLESS ONE GOES INTO THE LOWER MID ATLANTIC
REGION. THEREFORE...LEANING CLOSER TO THE GFS SBCAPE PROFILES WITH
1000-2000 J/KG OF INSTABILITY...WITH SOME SLIGHTLY LOWER AMOUNTS
AND POSSIBLE SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS. IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST
INTERSECTION OF THE SHEAR AND CAPE PROFILES WILL BE IN THE NOON TO
6 PM TIME FRAME. THE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT VERY STEEP
BASED ON THE NAM/GFS/EC GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME HIGH
DCAPE VALUES PROGGED AROUND THE 1000 J/KG RANGE. THE SOUNDINGS ARE
VERY UNIDIRECTIONAL...AND THE ORGANIZED CONVECTION WOULD LIKELY
FAVOR MULTICELLS EVOLVING INTO A FEW CLUSTERS OR LINES OF STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH BOWING SEGMENTS AND DAMAGING WINDS
THE MAIN THREATS. WE HAVE PHRASED THE ZONES AS CHC OF
THUNDERSTORMS...AND SOME MAY BE SEVERE.

THE LATEST HRRR LAYER COMP REF PRODUCT FAVORS THE CONVECTION
DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN NOON AND 3 PM FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
WEST. MULTICELLS FORMING INTO CLUSTERS AND LINES ARE THE MODE
DEPICTED. THE ANOMALOUS PWAT VALUES AND MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL FAVOR HEAVY RAINFALL. THE CELLS SHOULD BE MOVING
ALONG...BUT THE PARCHED GROUND MAY NOT ALLOW ABSORPTION QUICKLY
AND RUNOFF COULD BE AN ISSUE FOR AN ISOLD FLASH FLOOD. THE HYDRO
SERVICE AREA DESPERATELY NEEDS THE RAIN...SINCE MOST AREAS ARE IN
D1 OR A MODERATE DROUGHT.

THE MAIN POTENTIAL INHIBITORS FOR A MAJOR/WIDESPREAD SEVERE EVENT
FOR THE CWA WOULD BE CLOUDS LIMITING THE INSTABILITY AND THE WEAK
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ALSO...THE BETTER JET DYNAMICS LAG UPSTREAM
TIED TO THE UPPER TROUGH AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT FOR THU
MORNING. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE A H250 JET STREAK DOES
GET CLOSE TO W-CNTRL NY BTWN 18Z- 00Z. OVERALL...WE DO FEEL
CONFIDENT THAT THE FCST AREA WILL GET SOME ACTIVE OR SEVERE
WX...JUST NOT CLEAR IF IT WILL BE A MINOR OR MAJOR EVENT. HIGH
TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEY
AREAS...AND 70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...THE SFC TROUGH MOVES THROUGH WITH THE SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ENDING IN THE EARLY EVENING. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
LULL IN THE ACTIVITY...BUT THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
APPROACHING THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND WRN NY. SOME SLIGHT AND
LOW CHC POPS WERE KEPT IN WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY BTWN
09Z-12Z SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
LOWS WILL STILL BE MILD IN THE MID AND U60S IN THE VALLEY
AREAS...AND U50S TO L60S OVER THE MTNS.

THU...THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE IN AGREEMENT WITH A FASTER
PROGRESSION OF THE SFC COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH. IF
IT LAGS A LITTLE...THEN THE SOUTHEAST EXTREME OF THE FCST AREA /MID
HUDSON VALLEY...SRN BERKS...AND NW CT/ WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED
FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. RIGHT NOW...ALL OF OUR
FCST AREA IS IN A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK. THE INSTABILITY
LOOKS MUCH LESS THAN TODAYS...AND THE BETTER DYNAMICS WITH THE
UPPER JET GOES N/NE INTO SRN QUEBEC...NRN NY...AND NRN NEW
ENGLAND. A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN
EVERYWHERE INTO THE EARLY TO MID PM...THEN QUICKLY DIMINISHED FROM
THE W/NW TO S/SE. MAX TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY WITH THE COLD ADVECTION
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...AND STRONG MIXING OR DOWNSLOPING
OCCURRING. EXPECT BRISK W/NW WINDS DURING THE PM. H850 TEMPS FALL
TO +8C TO +13C BY THE 00Z/FRI FROM NW TO SE OVER THE AREA. HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE U60S TO L70S OVER THE SRN DACKS/W-CNTRL MOHAWK
VALLEY TO M70S TO L80S OVER THE REST OF THE REGION...EXCEPT SOME
U60S/L70S OVER THE CATSKILLS/SRN GREENS...AND M80S OVER THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

THU NIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES DOWNSTREAM...AND BRISK
W/NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS SFC ANTICYCLONE RIDGES IN FROM THE
NORTH AND WEST EARLY ON...AND SETTLES OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND BY
FRI MORNING. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL DECREASE COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE M40S TO L50S OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND
U50S OVER THE VALLEY AREAS.

FRIDAY...THE SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...AND
THE SFC HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSE THE WEEK. THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE WILL BE IN CONTROL AGAIN. A DRY AND LESS HUMID DAY IS
EXPECTED...BUT THE S/SW FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT UPSTREAM. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND 70S TO NEAR
80F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE FAIRLY NICE
STILL WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRI NITE-SAT SHOULD TREND BACK TO
NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL SUN-TUE...AS THE EAST COAST UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
DEAMPLIFIES WITH THE APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM SOUTHERN
CANADA. AS IT DEAMPLIFIES...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
SOMETIME LATE SAT OR EARLY SUN. THIS SHOULD BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. DEPENDING ON ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE INCOMING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES/SE CANADA...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE COLD
FRONT SLOWS DOWN AND/OR A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG IT AND TRACKS SOUTH OF
THE REGION. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...SHOWERS COULD LINGER IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT FOR SUN INTO TUE...BUT MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.

WARM AND SOMEWHAT HUMID FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON
SATURDAY...THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT WILL BOOST TEMPS TO HIGHS
IN THE 80S ACROSS THE REGION...BUT SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR OFF THE
ATLANTIC WILL RESULT IN THE COOLEST TEMPS OCCURRING OVER SOUTHERN
AREAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL ALSO INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION...AND HAVE FORECAST POPS TO RISE TO LOW CHANCE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST BY LATE AFTERNOON...RANGING UP TO LIKELY POPS OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS. SATURDAY NIGHT POPS CONTINUE TO RISE...REACHING LIKELY
LEVELS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS OVER THE
SOUTHERN FOURTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 40S OVER THE ADIRONDACKS...TO THE LOWER 60S OVER THE
FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.

DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF A WAVE ALONG THE FRONT...POPS FOR SUNDAY
REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH...BETWEEN 40 AND 50 PERCENT DURING THE MORNING...
AND 30 TO 45 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
OVER THE SOUTH. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE 60S TO MID 70S.

STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR THE FRONT TO BECOME STATIONARY FAR ENOUGH
NORTH TO RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. HAVE FORECAST EITHER DRY CONDITIONS OR SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FROM THE ADIRONDACKS TO THE LAKE GEORGE AREA DURING THIS
PERIOD. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MOST OTHER AREAS...AND LOW CHANCE POPS
OVER THE EXTREME SOUTH. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO
LOWER 50S. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S ONCE AGAIN...AND HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL MAINTAIN A WARM
AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF TAF
SITES THROUGH 18Z ON WEDNESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE A PERIOD OF
FOG AND STRATUS AT KPSF BETWEEN 08Z AND 13Z EARLY THIS MORNING.
AFTER 18Z...EXPECT A BAND OF AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH IN THE
FORECAST AFTER 18Z AT ALL THE TAF SITES...AND A PROB30 GROUP FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS (WIND
GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH) BETWEEN 18Z AND 22Z AT KGFL/KALB/KPOU...AND
19Z TO 23Z AT KPSF.

WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY AT 5-10 KT AT KALB...AND LIGHT AND
VARIABLE ELSEWHERE THROUGH A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. AFTER 13Z
WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST TO
8-12 KT...WITH GUSTS OF 15-20 KT BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.


OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY.  AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WELL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL FOCUS SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
THURSDAY WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH DRIER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 45 TO 60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
INCREASE TO 70 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND THE DECREASE TO 35 TO
55 PERCENT ON THURSDAY.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH
TODAY WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH...THEN 5 TO 15 MPH TONIGHT. THE WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME
GUSTS TO 30 MPH ON THURSDAY WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED MODERATE
DROUGHT AT THIS TIME.

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING ARE EXPECTED TODAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.25-1.75 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TODAY...SO STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS. AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD MAY BE POSSIBLE
IF STORMS REPEATEDLY MOVE OVER THE SAME AREA...OR THE DRY/PARCHED
GROUND DOES NOT ABSORB THE RAINFALL QUICKLY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...KL/GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 270840
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
440 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY.  AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WELL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL FOCUS SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING.  THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
THURSDAY WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH DRIER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
     STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

AS OF 423 AM EDT...A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IS OVER THE
FCST AREA THIS MORNING WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S TO L70S. A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED ALONG THE EAST COAST CONTINUES TO
FUNNEL IN THE HUMID AIR. UPSTREAM ON THE WATER VAPOR LOOP AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE WRN GREAT
LAKES REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL ARRIVE ON THU...A SHORT-WAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE OH VALLEY INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES...WRN NY AND
PA THIS MORNING...AND A PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH WILL BE THE LIFTING
MECHANISMS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. SOME LOCAL
CSTAR WORK WITH SUNYA HAS SHOWN THAT PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGHS CAN
YIELD SOME SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WX EVENTS ACROSS NY AND NEW ENGLAND.

SPC HAS THE ENTIRE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK...ACTUALLY IT IS A VERY
LARGE AREA THAT EXTENDS FROM NRN ME TO DC WITH THE LATEST DAY 1
GRAPHIC. THERE IS PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH SFC
DEWPTS IN THE LOWER TO M60S...AND SOME SPOTTY U60S. PWATS WILL
RISE TO THE 1.25-1.75 INCH RANGE WITH SOME ISOLATED VALUES CLOSER
TO 2"...ESPECIALLY WHERE IT RAINS BASED ON THE BUFKIT AND MODEL
PROFILES. THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES INCREASE TO 30-40 KTS BY
THE LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH THE GREATER SHEAR
FROM ROUGHLY THE I-90 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD...AND LESSER AMOUNTS TO
THE SOUTH. INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO BE VARIABLE ON THE GUIDANCE
DUE TO THE VARYING AMOUNTS OF CLOUD COVER...AND SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE SHOWING SFC DEWPTS IN THE LOWER 70S. CAN NOT REALLY FIND
ANY 70F DEWPT AIR UNLESS ONE GOES INTO THE LOWER MID ATLANTIC
REGION. THEREFORE...LEANING CLOSER TO THE GFS SBCAPE PROFILES WITH
1000-2000 J/KG OF INSTABILITY...WITH SOME SLIGHTLY LOWER AMOUNTS
AND POSSIBLE SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS. IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST
INTERSECTION OF THE SHEAR AND CAPE PROFILES WILL BE IN THE NOON TO
6 PM TIME FRAME. THE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT VERY STEEP
BASED ON THE NAM/GFS/EC GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME HIGH
DCAPE VALUES PROGGED AROUND THE 1000 J/KG RANGE. THE SOUNDINGS ARE
VERY UNIDIRECTIONAL...AND THE ORGANIZED CONVECTION WOULD LIKELY
FAVOR MULTICELLS EVOLVING INTO A FEW CLUSTERS OR LINES OF STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH BOWING SEGMENTS AND DAMAGING WINDS
THE MAIN THREATS. WE HAVE PHRASED THE ZONES AS CHC OF
THUNDERSTORMS...AND SOME MAY BE SEVERE.

THE LATEST HRRR LAYER COMP REF PRODUCT FAVORS THE CONVECTION
DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN NOON AND 3 PM FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
WEST. MULTICELLS FORMING INTO CLUSTERS AND LINES ARE THE MODE
DEPICTED. THE ANOMALOUS PWAT VALUES AND MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL FAVOR HEAVY RAINFALL. THE CELLS SHOULD BE MOVING
ALONG...BUT THE PARCHED GROUND MAY NOT ALLOW ABSORPTION QUICKLY
AND RUNOFF COULD BE AN ISSUE FOR AN ISOLD FLASH FLOOD. THE HYDRO
SERVICE AREA DESPERATELY NEEDS THE RAIN...SINCE MOST AREAS ARE IN
D1 OR A MODERATE DROUGHT.

THE MAIN POTENTIAL INHIBITORS FOR A MAJOR/WIDESPREAD SEVERE EVENT
FOR THE CWA WOULD BE CLOUDS LIMITING THE INSTABILITY AND THE WEAK
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ALSO...THE BETTER JET DYNAMICS LAG UPSTREAM
TIED TO THE UPPER TROUGH AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT FOR THU
MORNING. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE A H250 JET STREAK DOES
GET CLOSE TO W-CNTRL NY BTWN 18Z- 00Z. OVERALL...WE DO FEEL
CONFIDENT THAT THE FCST AREA WILL GET SOME ACTIVE OR SEVERE
WX...JUST NOT CLEAR IF IT WILL BE A MINOR OR MAJOR EVENT. HIGH
TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEY
AREAS...AND 70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...THE SFC TROUGH MOVES THROUGH WITH THE SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ENDING IN THE EARLY EVENING. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
LULL IN THE ACTIVITY...BUT THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
APPROACHING THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND WRN NY. SOME SLIGHT AND
LOW CHC POPS WERE KEPT IN WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY BTWN
09Z-12Z SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
LOWS WILL STILL BE MILD IN THE MID AND U60S IN THE VALLEY
AREAS...AND U50S TO L60S OVER THE MTNS.

THU...THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE IN AGREEMENT WITH A FASTER
PROGRESSION OF THE SFC COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH. IF
IT LAGS A LITTLE...THEN THE SOUTHEAST EXTREME OF THE FCST AREA /MID
HUDSON VALLEY...SRN BERKS...AND NW CT/ WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED
FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. RIGHT NOW...ALL OF OUR
FCST AREA IS IN A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK. THE INSTABILITY
LOOKS MUCH LESS THAN TODAYS...AND THE BETTER DYNAMICS WITH THE
UPPER JET GOES N/NE INTO SRN QUEBEC...NRN NY...AND NRN NEW
ENGLAND. A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN
EVERYWHERE INTO THE EARLY TO MID PM...THEN QUICKLY DIMINISHED FROM
THE W/NW TO S/SE. MAX TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY WITH THE COLD ADVECTION
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...AND STRONG MIXING OR DOWNSLOPING
OCCURRING. EXPECT BRISK W/NW WINDS DURING THE PM. H850 TEMPS FALL
TO +8C TO +13C BY THE 00Z/FRI FROM NW TO SE OVER THE AREA. HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE U60S TO L70S OVER THE SRN DACKS/W-CNTRL MOHAWK
VALLEY TO M70S TO L80S OVER THE REST OF THE REGION...EXCEPT SOME
U60S/L70S OVER THE CATSKILLS/SRN GREENS...AND M80S OVER THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

THU NIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES DOWNSTREAM...AND BRISK
W/NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS SFC ANTICYCLONE RIDGES IN FROM THE
NORTH AND WEST EARLY ON...AND SETTLES OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND BY
FRI MORNING. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL DECREASE COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE M40S TO L50S OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND
U50S OVER THE VALLEY AREAS.

FRIDAY...THE SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...AND
THE SFC HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSE THE WEEK. THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE WILL BE IN CONTROL AGAIN. A DRY AND LESS HUMID DAY IS
EXPECTED...BUT THE S/SW FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT UPSTREAM. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND 70S TO NEAR
80F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE FAIRLY NICE
STILL WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRI NITE-SAT SHOULD TREND BACK TO
NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL SUN-TUE...AS THE EAST COAST UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
DEAMPLIFIES WITH THE APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM SOUTHERN
CANADA. AS IT DEAMPLIFIES...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
SOMETIME LATE SAT OR EARLY SUN. THIS SHOULD BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. DEPENDING ON ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE INCOMING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES/SE CANADA...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE COLD
FRONT SLOWS DOWN AND/OR A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG IT AND TRACKS SOUTH OF
THE REGION. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...SHOWERS COULD LINGER IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT FOR SUN INTO TUE...BUT MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.

WARM AND SOMEWHAT HUMID FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON
SATURDAY...THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT WILL BOOST TEMPS TO HIGHS
IN THE 80S ACROSS THE REGION...BUT SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR OFF THE
ATLANTIC WILL RESULT IN THE COOLEST TEMPS OCCURRING OVER SOUTHERN
AREAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL ALSO INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION...AND HAVE FORECAST POPS TO RISE TO LOW CHANCE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST BY LATE AFTERNOON...RANGING UP TO LIKELY POPS OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS. SATURDAY NIGHT POPS CONTINUE TO RISE...REACHING LIKELY
LEVELS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS OVER THE
SOUTHERN FOURTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 40S OVER THE ADIRONDACKS...TO THE LOWER 60S OVER THE
FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.

DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF A WAVE ALONG THE FRONT...POPS FOR SUNDAY
REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH...BETWEEN 40 AND 50 PERCENT DURING THE MORNING...
AND 30 TO 45 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
OVER THE SOUTH. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE 60S TO MID 70S.

STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR THE FRONT TO BECOME STATIONARY FAR ENOUGH
NORTH TO RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. HAVE FORECAST EITHER DRY CONDITIONS OR SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FROM THE ADIRONDACKS TO THE LAKE GEORGE AREA DURING THIS
PERIOD. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MOST OTHER AREAS...AND LOW CHANCE POPS
OVER THE EXTREME SOUTH. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO
LOWER 50S. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S ONCE AGAIN...AND HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL MAINTAIN A WARM
AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF TAF
SITES THROUGH 18Z ON WEDNESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE A PERIOD OF
FOG AND STRATUS AT KPSF BETWEEN 08Z AND 13Z EARLY THIS MORNING.
AFTER 18Z...EXPECT A BAND OF AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH IN THE
FORECAST AFTER 18Z AT ALL THE TAF SITES...AND A PROB30 GROUP FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS (WIND
GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH) BETWEEN 18Z AND 22Z AT KGFL/KALB/KPOU...AND
19Z TO 23Z AT KPSF.

WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY AT 5-10 KT AT KALB...AND LIGHT AND
VARIABLE ELSEWHERE THROUGH A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. AFTER 13Z
WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST TO
8-12 KT...WITH GUSTS OF 15-20 KT BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.


OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY.  AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WELL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL FOCUS SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
THURSDAY WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH DRIER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 45 TO 60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
INCREASE TO 70 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND THE DECREASE TO 35 TO
55 PERCENT ON THURSDAY.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH
TODAY WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH...THEN 5 TO 15 MPH TONIGHT. THE WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME
GUSTS TO 30 MPH ON THURSDAY WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED MODERATE
DROUGHT AT THIS TIME.

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING ARE EXPECTED TODAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.25-1.75 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TODAY...SO STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS. AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD MAY BE POSSIBLE
IF STORMS REPEATEDLY MOVE OVER THE SAME AREA...OR THE DRY/PARCHED
GROUND DOES NOT ABSORB THE RAINFALL QUICKLY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...KL/GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA



000
FXUS61 KALY 270840
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
440 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY.  AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WELL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL FOCUS SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING.  THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
THURSDAY WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH DRIER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
     STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

AS OF 423 AM EDT...A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IS OVER THE
FCST AREA THIS MORNING WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S TO L70S. A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED ALONG THE EAST COAST CONTINUES TO
FUNNEL IN THE HUMID AIR. UPSTREAM ON THE WATER VAPOR LOOP AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE WRN GREAT
LAKES REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL ARRIVE ON THU...A SHORT-WAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE OH VALLEY INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES...WRN NY AND
PA THIS MORNING...AND A PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH WILL BE THE LIFTING
MECHANISMS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. SOME LOCAL
CSTAR WORK WITH SUNYA HAS SHOWN THAT PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGHS CAN
YIELD SOME SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WX EVENTS ACROSS NY AND NEW ENGLAND.

SPC HAS THE ENTIRE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK...ACTUALLY IT IS A VERY
LARGE AREA THAT EXTENDS FROM NRN ME TO DC WITH THE LATEST DAY 1
GRAPHIC. THERE IS PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH SFC
DEWPTS IN THE LOWER TO M60S...AND SOME SPOTTY U60S. PWATS WILL
RISE TO THE 1.25-1.75 INCH RANGE WITH SOME ISOLATED VALUES CLOSER
TO 2"...ESPECIALLY WHERE IT RAINS BASED ON THE BUFKIT AND MODEL
PROFILES. THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES INCREASE TO 30-40 KTS BY
THE LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH THE GREATER SHEAR
FROM ROUGHLY THE I-90 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD...AND LESSER AMOUNTS TO
THE SOUTH. INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO BE VARIABLE ON THE GUIDANCE
DUE TO THE VARYING AMOUNTS OF CLOUD COVER...AND SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE SHOWING SFC DEWPTS IN THE LOWER 70S. CAN NOT REALLY FIND
ANY 70F DEWPT AIR UNLESS ONE GOES INTO THE LOWER MID ATLANTIC
REGION. THEREFORE...LEANING CLOSER TO THE GFS SBCAPE PROFILES WITH
1000-2000 J/KG OF INSTABILITY...WITH SOME SLIGHTLY LOWER AMOUNTS
AND POSSIBLE SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS. IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST
INTERSECTION OF THE SHEAR AND CAPE PROFILES WILL BE IN THE NOON TO
6 PM TIME FRAME. THE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT VERY STEEP
BASED ON THE NAM/GFS/EC GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME HIGH
DCAPE VALUES PROGGED AROUND THE 1000 J/KG RANGE. THE SOUNDINGS ARE
VERY UNIDIRECTIONAL...AND THE ORGANIZED CONVECTION WOULD LIKELY
FAVOR MULTICELLS EVOLVING INTO A FEW CLUSTERS OR LINES OF STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH BOWING SEGMENTS AND DAMAGING WINDS
THE MAIN THREATS. WE HAVE PHRASED THE ZONES AS CHC OF
THUNDERSTORMS...AND SOME MAY BE SEVERE.

THE LATEST HRRR LAYER COMP REF PRODUCT FAVORS THE CONVECTION
DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN NOON AND 3 PM FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
WEST. MULTICELLS FORMING INTO CLUSTERS AND LINES ARE THE MODE
DEPICTED. THE ANOMALOUS PWAT VALUES AND MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL FAVOR HEAVY RAINFALL. THE CELLS SHOULD BE MOVING
ALONG...BUT THE PARCHED GROUND MAY NOT ALLOW ABSORPTION QUICKLY
AND RUNOFF COULD BE AN ISSUE FOR AN ISOLD FLASH FLOOD. THE HYDRO
SERVICE AREA DESPERATELY NEEDS THE RAIN...SINCE MOST AREAS ARE IN
D1 OR A MODERATE DROUGHT.

THE MAIN POTENTIAL INHIBITORS FOR A MAJOR/WIDESPREAD SEVERE EVENT
FOR THE CWA WOULD BE CLOUDS LIMITING THE INSTABILITY AND THE WEAK
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ALSO...THE BETTER JET DYNAMICS LAG UPSTREAM
TIED TO THE UPPER TROUGH AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT FOR THU
MORNING. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE A H250 JET STREAK DOES
GET CLOSE TO W-CNTRL NY BTWN 18Z- 00Z. OVERALL...WE DO FEEL
CONFIDENT THAT THE FCST AREA WILL GET SOME ACTIVE OR SEVERE
WX...JUST NOT CLEAR IF IT WILL BE A MINOR OR MAJOR EVENT. HIGH
TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEY
AREAS...AND 70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...THE SFC TROUGH MOVES THROUGH WITH THE SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ENDING IN THE EARLY EVENING. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
LULL IN THE ACTIVITY...BUT THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
APPROACHING THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND WRN NY. SOME SLIGHT AND
LOW CHC POPS WERE KEPT IN WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY BTWN
09Z-12Z SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
LOWS WILL STILL BE MILD IN THE MID AND U60S IN THE VALLEY
AREAS...AND U50S TO L60S OVER THE MTNS.

THU...THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE IN AGREEMENT WITH A FASTER
PROGRESSION OF THE SFC COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH. IF
IT LAGS A LITTLE...THEN THE SOUTHEAST EXTREME OF THE FCST AREA /MID
HUDSON VALLEY...SRN BERKS...AND NW CT/ WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED
FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. RIGHT NOW...ALL OF OUR
FCST AREA IS IN A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK. THE INSTABILITY
LOOKS MUCH LESS THAN TODAYS...AND THE BETTER DYNAMICS WITH THE
UPPER JET GOES N/NE INTO SRN QUEBEC...NRN NY...AND NRN NEW
ENGLAND. A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN
EVERYWHERE INTO THE EARLY TO MID PM...THEN QUICKLY DIMINISHED FROM
THE W/NW TO S/SE. MAX TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY WITH THE COLD ADVECTION
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...AND STRONG MIXING OR DOWNSLOPING
OCCURRING. EXPECT BRISK W/NW WINDS DURING THE PM. H850 TEMPS FALL
TO +8C TO +13C BY THE 00Z/FRI FROM NW TO SE OVER THE AREA. HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE U60S TO L70S OVER THE SRN DACKS/W-CNTRL MOHAWK
VALLEY TO M70S TO L80S OVER THE REST OF THE REGION...EXCEPT SOME
U60S/L70S OVER THE CATSKILLS/SRN GREENS...AND M80S OVER THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

THU NIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES DOWNSTREAM...AND BRISK
W/NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS SFC ANTICYCLONE RIDGES IN FROM THE
NORTH AND WEST EARLY ON...AND SETTLES OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND BY
FRI MORNING. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL DECREASE COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE M40S TO L50S OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND
U50S OVER THE VALLEY AREAS.

FRIDAY...THE SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...AND
THE SFC HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSE THE WEEK. THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE WILL BE IN CONTROL AGAIN. A DRY AND LESS HUMID DAY IS
EXPECTED...BUT THE S/SW FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT UPSTREAM. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND 70S TO NEAR
80F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE FAIRLY NICE
STILL WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRI NITE-SAT SHOULD TREND BACK TO
NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL SUN-TUE...AS THE EAST COAST UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
DEAMPLIFIES WITH THE APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM SOUTHERN
CANADA. AS IT DEAMPLIFIES...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
SOMETIME LATE SAT OR EARLY SUN. THIS SHOULD BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. DEPENDING ON ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE INCOMING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES/SE CANADA...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE COLD
FRONT SLOWS DOWN AND/OR A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG IT AND TRACKS SOUTH OF
THE REGION. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...SHOWERS COULD LINGER IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT FOR SUN INTO TUE...BUT MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.

WARM AND SOMEWHAT HUMID FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON
SATURDAY...THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT WILL BOOST TEMPS TO HIGHS
IN THE 80S ACROSS THE REGION...BUT SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR OFF THE
ATLANTIC WILL RESULT IN THE COOLEST TEMPS OCCURRING OVER SOUTHERN
AREAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL ALSO INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION...AND HAVE FORECAST POPS TO RISE TO LOW CHANCE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST BY LATE AFTERNOON...RANGING UP TO LIKELY POPS OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS. SATURDAY NIGHT POPS CONTINUE TO RISE...REACHING LIKELY
LEVELS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS OVER THE
SOUTHERN FOURTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 40S OVER THE ADIRONDACKS...TO THE LOWER 60S OVER THE
FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.

DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF A WAVE ALONG THE FRONT...POPS FOR SUNDAY
REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH...BETWEEN 40 AND 50 PERCENT DURING THE MORNING...
AND 30 TO 45 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
OVER THE SOUTH. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE 60S TO MID 70S.

STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR THE FRONT TO BECOME STATIONARY FAR ENOUGH
NORTH TO RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. HAVE FORECAST EITHER DRY CONDITIONS OR SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FROM THE ADIRONDACKS TO THE LAKE GEORGE AREA DURING THIS
PERIOD. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MOST OTHER AREAS...AND LOW CHANCE POPS
OVER THE EXTREME SOUTH. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO
LOWER 50S. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S ONCE AGAIN...AND HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL MAINTAIN A WARM
AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF TAF
SITES THROUGH 18Z ON WEDNESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE A PERIOD OF
FOG AND STRATUS AT KPSF BETWEEN 08Z AND 13Z EARLY THIS MORNING.
AFTER 18Z...EXPECT A BAND OF AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH IN THE
FORECAST AFTER 18Z AT ALL THE TAF SITES...AND A PROB30 GROUP FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS (WIND
GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH) BETWEEN 18Z AND 22Z AT KGFL/KALB/KPOU...AND
19Z TO 23Z AT KPSF.

WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY AT 5-10 KT AT KALB...AND LIGHT AND
VARIABLE ELSEWHERE THROUGH A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. AFTER 13Z
WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST TO
8-12 KT...WITH GUSTS OF 15-20 KT BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.


OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY.  AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WELL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL FOCUS SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
THURSDAY WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH DRIER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 45 TO 60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
INCREASE TO 70 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND THE DECREASE TO 35 TO
55 PERCENT ON THURSDAY.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH
TODAY WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH...THEN 5 TO 15 MPH TONIGHT. THE WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME
GUSTS TO 30 MPH ON THURSDAY WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED MODERATE
DROUGHT AT THIS TIME.

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING ARE EXPECTED TODAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.25-1.75 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TODAY...SO STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS. AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD MAY BE POSSIBLE
IF STORMS REPEATEDLY MOVE OVER THE SAME AREA...OR THE DRY/PARCHED
GROUND DOES NOT ABSORB THE RAINFALL QUICKLY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...KL/GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA



  [top]

000
FXUS61 KOKX 270839
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
439 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES FARTHER OFFSHORE TODAY. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...THEN CROSSES THE AREA ON
THURSDAY...SLIDING TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. A STRONGER COLD FRONT
WILL THEN IMPACT THE AREA FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MAIN FOCUS TODAY IS HOW MUCH CONVECTION DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO A
WEAK 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM UPSTATE SC
INTO OH...THAT CROSSES THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON IS AT CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN. SHOULD ALSO BE ABLE TO ACHIEVE SOME LIFT OVER THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY/NE NJ AS THE SEABREEZE INTERSECTS A WEAK THERMAL
TROUGH FORECAST TO SET UP THERE THIS AFTERNOON.

WITH FORECAST CAPES OVER THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY/NE NJ/SW CT ON
AVERAGE OF 1500-2500 J/KG...25-30KT OF 0-6KM SHEAR AND THE REGION
IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF A 85KT 300 HPA JET...HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THIS AREA. BULK RICHARDSON NUMBERS GENERALLY 25-50 DO SUPPORT THE
POSSIBILITY OF A DISCRETE SUPERCELL...WITH MAINLY MULTICELLULAR
CONVECTION. THE SEVERE THREAT IS GENERALLY CONSISTENT WITH SPC/S
AREA OF MARGINAL AND SLIGHT RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA.
NOT QUITE SO SURE ABOUT THE MARGINAL RISK OVER NYC...AS SEABREEZE
COULD STABILIZE THINGS BEFORE ANY CONVECTION ARRIVES THERE. FOR
THAT REASON WILL ONLY HIGHLIGHT THE SEVERE THREAT IN THE HWO FOR
THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY/NE NJ AND SW CT AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER
CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM MOVING INTO NYC.
THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS. THERE IS ALSO THE
THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY STRONGER
CONVECTION...REFER TO THE HYDROLOGY SECTION OF THE AFD FOR
DETAILS.

FOR NOW APPEARS MOST IF NOT ALL OF LONG ISLAND AND
SE CT SHOULD BE TOO STABLE IN THE LOW LEVELS DUE TO MARINE
INFLUENCE TO KEEP ANY CONVECTION AT BAY...HOWEVER DUE TO PROXIMITY
DUE HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN N MIDDLESEX...N NASSAU AND NW
SUFFOLK COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL.

FOR HIGHS TODAY USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 975-850 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE METEOROLOGICAL ENHANCEMENT OF RIP
CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT ATLANTIC BEACHES INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
COULD SEE STORMS LINGER INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE NW 1/2 OF THE
CWA...OTHERWISE SHOULD BE DRY TONIGHT ABSENT ANY NOTABLE FORCING.
IT WILL BE NOTABLY HUMID...WITH DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO
MID 60S. LOWS TONIGHT WERE BASED ON A BLEND OF NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES WITH ECS/MET/MAV GUIDANCE...WITH VALUES AROUND 10-15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG
TONIGHT...DEPENDING ON EXACTLY WHERE/HOW MUCH IT RAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. NOTING THAT FOG HAS NOT MATERIALIZED THE PAST FEW
NIGHTS...DO NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO CONTINUE WITH PATCHY FOG
IN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT.

MODELS DIFFER ON COVERAGE/EXTENT OF CONVECTION WITH A COLD FRONT
ON THURSDAY. ALSO DIFFER ON TIMING WITH THE GFS/ECMWF FASTER THAN
THE NAM/CMC-REG. NOTING 700-500 HPA FLOW HAS A FAIRLY DECENT
PERPENDICULAR COMPONENT TO THE FRONT...LEANED TOWARDS THE FASTER
TIMING OF THE GFS/ECMWF FOR POPS. WITH A WEAKENING FRONT
THOUGH...DID NOT FEEL COMFORTABLE GOING WITH HIGHER THAN CHANCE
POPS AT THIS TIME...AND KEPT SE SUFFOLK COUNTY AT SLIGHT CHANCE.
PROBABILITIES ARE HIGHEST OVER THE NW 1/2 OF THE CWA WHERE THE
INSTABILITY IS HIGHEST.

WITH SLIGHTLY LESS CAPE - 1000-2000 J/KG OVER THE INTERIOR THAN
TODAY...AND THE BEST DYNAMIC FORCING FORECAST TO THE N OF THE
REGION...DO NOT THINK THERE IS AS MUCH OF A THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. THOUGH AN ISOLATED OR TWO STRONG TO SEVERE STORM CANNOT
BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.

FOR HIGHS THURSDAY USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 975 TO 825 HPA
PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIXTURE
OF ECS/MAV/MET GUIDANCE. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 10-15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF A FEW LOCATIONS IN NE
NJ AND/OR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF NYC CAME IN WITH A HIGH AT OR JUST
ABOVE 90.DEWPOINTS ON THURSDAY SHOULD BE A TAD LOWER THAN
TODAY...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S...SO HEAT INDICES SHOULD PEAK OUT
IN WARMER AREAS IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE
DISSIPATING OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY. LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT. HEIGHTS BUILD ALOFT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
ANY CONVECTION FRIDAY OR SATURDAY WILL BE ISOLATED...DIURNAL IN
NATURE...AND LIKELY WELL INLAND. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.

MAIN QUESTION IN THE LONG TERM WILL COME DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND AND START OF THE NEW WEEK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
THE 00Z OPERATIONAL GFS STILL REMAINS THE FASTER AND MORE MORE
AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION. WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WITH THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER
00Z ECMWF...WHICH DOES NOT BRING THE FRONT THROUGH UNTIL SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO INTRODUCE SOME LOW CHANCE POPS
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
COULD DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT ITSELF.

BOTH MODEL SOLUTIONS KEEP THE FRONT IN THE VICINITY OF THE FORECAST
AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED RAINFALL EVENT LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY WARM THROUGH SAT...THEN COOLS
DOWN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TODAY...AND DISSIPATE
OVER THE AREA THU.

MAINLY VFR THIS MRNG...HOWEVER THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
POCKETS OF STRATUS AND BR WHICH COULD BRING MVFR. ANY MVFR BURNS
OFF BY 13-15Z EXCEPT KGON WHERE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT IT
COULD LINGER MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE DAY. OTHERWISE...AFTN TSTMS
LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AFT 18Z. THE
ACTIVITY MAY HOLD TOGETHER TO IMPACT AREAS ROUGHLY ALONG AND W OF
A KHPN-KEWR LINE.

MVFR OR LOWER AT TIMES TNGT WITH STRATUS AND POSSIBLY FOG.

S TO SW FLOW THRU THE TAF PERIOD. HIGHEST SPEEDS THIS AFTN INTO
EARLY EVE...ESPECIALLY INVOF KJFK WHERE SUSTAINED AROUND 20KT
EXPECTED.


...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW PROB FOR MVFR CIGS THRU 14Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW PROB FOR MVFR CIGS THRU 14Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW PROB FOR MVFR CIGS THRU 14Z.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.


.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.LATE TNGT...MVFR OR LOWER AT TIMES WITH SW FLOW.
.THU...MRNG MVFR OR LOWER. SCT TSTMS POSSIBLE INVOF A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT. SW FLOW DIMINISHING AND POSSIBLY BECOMING NW OR VRB.
.FRI...VFR WITH LGT NE WINDS VEERING THRU THE DAY.
.SAT...MRNG MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE. CHC SHWRS AND TSTMS IN THE
AFTN AND OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR OR LOWER. STRONG SLY FLOW.
.SUN...POSSIBLE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR. NE WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS SHOULD REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 5 FT OVER AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT...SO HAVE
CONTINUED THE SCA THERE.

ONCE AGAIN APPEARS THE SEA BREEZE WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING
GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT TO THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS AND TO NEW YORK
HARBOR AND THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND. HAVE ISSUED A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THOSE TWO ZONES FROM NOON UNTIL MIDNIGHT
AS WELL. ON THE SOUND AND EASTERN BAYS OF LONG ISLAND...GUSTS
SHOULD PEAK OUT AT 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH MAYBE SOME
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KT.

FOR THURSDAY FOR NOW IT APPEARS SEABREEZE SHOULD BE WEAKER...AND
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLIGHTLY MORE RELAXED...SO EXPECTING SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS.

HAVE ADJUSTED WAVEWATCH DOWN 1 FT TODAY-THURSDAY...AS IT HAS
GENERALLY BEEN OVER FORECASTING WAVE HEIGHTS AT THE BUOYS BY
ABOUT THAT AMOUNT.

THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF OFFSHORE WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND
A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT. THEN...MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON
THE OCEAN WATERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A
MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR BASIN AVERAGE OF AROUND 1/4 AN INCH OF
RAINFALL ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY/NE NJ/SW CT THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS...DOWN TO ZERO ELSEWHERE.

NOTING PRECIPITABLE WATERS FORECAST TO BE AROUND 1.75 INCHES AND
STORM MOTION FORECAST TO BE AROUND 10 KT...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SLOW MOVING STORMS THAT PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN ANY
STRONGER CONVECTION. THIS COULD LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING OF
URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

ON THURSDAY THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LESS THAN 1/4 OF AN INCH OF
BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL. HOWEVER...WITH STORM MOTION OF AROUND 10
KT AND PRECIPITABLE WATERS AROUND 1.25 INCHES...THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SLOW MOVING STORMS PRODUCING LOCALLY MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS COULD RESULT IN THE MINOR FLOODING OF
URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...ESPECIALLY IF IT OCCURS OVER AREAS
RECEIVING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED RAINFALL EVENT LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT
     FOR ANZ338-345.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...BC/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...BC/MALOIT



000
FXUS61 KOKX 270839
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
439 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES FARTHER OFFSHORE TODAY. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...THEN CROSSES THE AREA ON
THURSDAY...SLIDING TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. A STRONGER COLD FRONT
WILL THEN IMPACT THE AREA FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MAIN FOCUS TODAY IS HOW MUCH CONVECTION DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO A
WEAK 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM UPSTATE SC
INTO OH...THAT CROSSES THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON IS AT CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN. SHOULD ALSO BE ABLE TO ACHIEVE SOME LIFT OVER THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY/NE NJ AS THE SEABREEZE INTERSECTS A WEAK THERMAL
TROUGH FORECAST TO SET UP THERE THIS AFTERNOON.

WITH FORECAST CAPES OVER THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY/NE NJ/SW CT ON
AVERAGE OF 1500-2500 J/KG...25-30KT OF 0-6KM SHEAR AND THE REGION
IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF A 85KT 300 HPA JET...HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THIS AREA. BULK RICHARDSON NUMBERS GENERALLY 25-50 DO SUPPORT THE
POSSIBILITY OF A DISCRETE SUPERCELL...WITH MAINLY MULTICELLULAR
CONVECTION. THE SEVERE THREAT IS GENERALLY CONSISTENT WITH SPC/S
AREA OF MARGINAL AND SLIGHT RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA.
NOT QUITE SO SURE ABOUT THE MARGINAL RISK OVER NYC...AS SEABREEZE
COULD STABILIZE THINGS BEFORE ANY CONVECTION ARRIVES THERE. FOR
THAT REASON WILL ONLY HIGHLIGHT THE SEVERE THREAT IN THE HWO FOR
THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY/NE NJ AND SW CT AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER
CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM MOVING INTO NYC.
THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS. THERE IS ALSO THE
THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY STRONGER
CONVECTION...REFER TO THE HYDROLOGY SECTION OF THE AFD FOR
DETAILS.

FOR NOW APPEARS MOST IF NOT ALL OF LONG ISLAND AND
SE CT SHOULD BE TOO STABLE IN THE LOW LEVELS DUE TO MARINE
INFLUENCE TO KEEP ANY CONVECTION AT BAY...HOWEVER DUE TO PROXIMITY
DUE HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN N MIDDLESEX...N NASSAU AND NW
SUFFOLK COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL.

FOR HIGHS TODAY USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 975-850 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE METEOROLOGICAL ENHANCEMENT OF RIP
CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT ATLANTIC BEACHES INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
COULD SEE STORMS LINGER INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE NW 1/2 OF THE
CWA...OTHERWISE SHOULD BE DRY TONIGHT ABSENT ANY NOTABLE FORCING.
IT WILL BE NOTABLY HUMID...WITH DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO
MID 60S. LOWS TONIGHT WERE BASED ON A BLEND OF NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES WITH ECS/MET/MAV GUIDANCE...WITH VALUES AROUND 10-15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG
TONIGHT...DEPENDING ON EXACTLY WHERE/HOW MUCH IT RAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. NOTING THAT FOG HAS NOT MATERIALIZED THE PAST FEW
NIGHTS...DO NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO CONTINUE WITH PATCHY FOG
IN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT.

MODELS DIFFER ON COVERAGE/EXTENT OF CONVECTION WITH A COLD FRONT
ON THURSDAY. ALSO DIFFER ON TIMING WITH THE GFS/ECMWF FASTER THAN
THE NAM/CMC-REG. NOTING 700-500 HPA FLOW HAS A FAIRLY DECENT
PERPENDICULAR COMPONENT TO THE FRONT...LEANED TOWARDS THE FASTER
TIMING OF THE GFS/ECMWF FOR POPS. WITH A WEAKENING FRONT
THOUGH...DID NOT FEEL COMFORTABLE GOING WITH HIGHER THAN CHANCE
POPS AT THIS TIME...AND KEPT SE SUFFOLK COUNTY AT SLIGHT CHANCE.
PROBABILITIES ARE HIGHEST OVER THE NW 1/2 OF THE CWA WHERE THE
INSTABILITY IS HIGHEST.

WITH SLIGHTLY LESS CAPE - 1000-2000 J/KG OVER THE INTERIOR THAN
TODAY...AND THE BEST DYNAMIC FORCING FORECAST TO THE N OF THE
REGION...DO NOT THINK THERE IS AS MUCH OF A THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. THOUGH AN ISOLATED OR TWO STRONG TO SEVERE STORM CANNOT
BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.

FOR HIGHS THURSDAY USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 975 TO 825 HPA
PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIXTURE
OF ECS/MAV/MET GUIDANCE. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 10-15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF A FEW LOCATIONS IN NE
NJ AND/OR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF NYC CAME IN WITH A HIGH AT OR JUST
ABOVE 90.DEWPOINTS ON THURSDAY SHOULD BE A TAD LOWER THAN
TODAY...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S...SO HEAT INDICES SHOULD PEAK OUT
IN WARMER AREAS IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE
DISSIPATING OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY. LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT. HEIGHTS BUILD ALOFT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
ANY CONVECTION FRIDAY OR SATURDAY WILL BE ISOLATED...DIURNAL IN
NATURE...AND LIKELY WELL INLAND. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.

MAIN QUESTION IN THE LONG TERM WILL COME DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND AND START OF THE NEW WEEK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
THE 00Z OPERATIONAL GFS STILL REMAINS THE FASTER AND MORE MORE
AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION. WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WITH THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER
00Z ECMWF...WHICH DOES NOT BRING THE FRONT THROUGH UNTIL SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO INTRODUCE SOME LOW CHANCE POPS
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
COULD DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT ITSELF.

BOTH MODEL SOLUTIONS KEEP THE FRONT IN THE VICINITY OF THE FORECAST
AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED RAINFALL EVENT LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY WARM THROUGH SAT...THEN COOLS
DOWN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TODAY...AND DISSIPATE
OVER THE AREA THU.

MAINLY VFR THIS MRNG...HOWEVER THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
POCKETS OF STRATUS AND BR WHICH COULD BRING MVFR. ANY MVFR BURNS
OFF BY 13-15Z EXCEPT KGON WHERE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT IT
COULD LINGER MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE DAY. OTHERWISE...AFTN TSTMS
LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AFT 18Z. THE
ACTIVITY MAY HOLD TOGETHER TO IMPACT AREAS ROUGHLY ALONG AND W OF
A KHPN-KEWR LINE.

MVFR OR LOWER AT TIMES TNGT WITH STRATUS AND POSSIBLY FOG.

S TO SW FLOW THRU THE TAF PERIOD. HIGHEST SPEEDS THIS AFTN INTO
EARLY EVE...ESPECIALLY INVOF KJFK WHERE SUSTAINED AROUND 20KT
EXPECTED.


...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW PROB FOR MVFR CIGS THRU 14Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW PROB FOR MVFR CIGS THRU 14Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW PROB FOR MVFR CIGS THRU 14Z.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.


.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.LATE TNGT...MVFR OR LOWER AT TIMES WITH SW FLOW.
.THU...MRNG MVFR OR LOWER. SCT TSTMS POSSIBLE INVOF A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT. SW FLOW DIMINISHING AND POSSIBLY BECOMING NW OR VRB.
.FRI...VFR WITH LGT NE WINDS VEERING THRU THE DAY.
.SAT...MRNG MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE. CHC SHWRS AND TSTMS IN THE
AFTN AND OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR OR LOWER. STRONG SLY FLOW.
.SUN...POSSIBLE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR. NE WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS SHOULD REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 5 FT OVER AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT...SO HAVE
CONTINUED THE SCA THERE.

ONCE AGAIN APPEARS THE SEA BREEZE WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING
GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT TO THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS AND TO NEW YORK
HARBOR AND THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND. HAVE ISSUED A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THOSE TWO ZONES FROM NOON UNTIL MIDNIGHT
AS WELL. ON THE SOUND AND EASTERN BAYS OF LONG ISLAND...GUSTS
SHOULD PEAK OUT AT 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH MAYBE SOME
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KT.

FOR THURSDAY FOR NOW IT APPEARS SEABREEZE SHOULD BE WEAKER...AND
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLIGHTLY MORE RELAXED...SO EXPECTING SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS.

HAVE ADJUSTED WAVEWATCH DOWN 1 FT TODAY-THURSDAY...AS IT HAS
GENERALLY BEEN OVER FORECASTING WAVE HEIGHTS AT THE BUOYS BY
ABOUT THAT AMOUNT.

THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF OFFSHORE WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND
A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT. THEN...MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON
THE OCEAN WATERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A
MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR BASIN AVERAGE OF AROUND 1/4 AN INCH OF
RAINFALL ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY/NE NJ/SW CT THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS...DOWN TO ZERO ELSEWHERE.

NOTING PRECIPITABLE WATERS FORECAST TO BE AROUND 1.75 INCHES AND
STORM MOTION FORECAST TO BE AROUND 10 KT...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SLOW MOVING STORMS THAT PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN ANY
STRONGER CONVECTION. THIS COULD LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING OF
URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

ON THURSDAY THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LESS THAN 1/4 OF AN INCH OF
BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL. HOWEVER...WITH STORM MOTION OF AROUND 10
KT AND PRECIPITABLE WATERS AROUND 1.25 INCHES...THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SLOW MOVING STORMS PRODUCING LOCALLY MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS COULD RESULT IN THE MINOR FLOODING OF
URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...ESPECIALLY IF IT OCCURS OVER AREAS
RECEIVING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED RAINFALL EVENT LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT
     FOR ANZ338-345.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...BC/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...BC/MALOIT




000
FXUS61 KOKX 270839
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
439 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES FARTHER OFFSHORE TODAY. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...THEN CROSSES THE AREA ON
THURSDAY...SLIDING TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. A STRONGER COLD FRONT
WILL THEN IMPACT THE AREA FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MAIN FOCUS TODAY IS HOW MUCH CONVECTION DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO A
WEAK 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM UPSTATE SC
INTO OH...THAT CROSSES THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON IS AT CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN. SHOULD ALSO BE ABLE TO ACHIEVE SOME LIFT OVER THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY/NE NJ AS THE SEABREEZE INTERSECTS A WEAK THERMAL
TROUGH FORECAST TO SET UP THERE THIS AFTERNOON.

WITH FORECAST CAPES OVER THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY/NE NJ/SW CT ON
AVERAGE OF 1500-2500 J/KG...25-30KT OF 0-6KM SHEAR AND THE REGION
IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF A 85KT 300 HPA JET...HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THIS AREA. BULK RICHARDSON NUMBERS GENERALLY 25-50 DO SUPPORT THE
POSSIBILITY OF A DISCRETE SUPERCELL...WITH MAINLY MULTICELLULAR
CONVECTION. THE SEVERE THREAT IS GENERALLY CONSISTENT WITH SPC/S
AREA OF MARGINAL AND SLIGHT RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA.
NOT QUITE SO SURE ABOUT THE MARGINAL RISK OVER NYC...AS SEABREEZE
COULD STABILIZE THINGS BEFORE ANY CONVECTION ARRIVES THERE. FOR
THAT REASON WILL ONLY HIGHLIGHT THE SEVERE THREAT IN THE HWO FOR
THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY/NE NJ AND SW CT AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER
CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM MOVING INTO NYC.
THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS. THERE IS ALSO THE
THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY STRONGER
CONVECTION...REFER TO THE HYDROLOGY SECTION OF THE AFD FOR
DETAILS.

FOR NOW APPEARS MOST IF NOT ALL OF LONG ISLAND AND
SE CT SHOULD BE TOO STABLE IN THE LOW LEVELS DUE TO MARINE
INFLUENCE TO KEEP ANY CONVECTION AT BAY...HOWEVER DUE TO PROXIMITY
DUE HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN N MIDDLESEX...N NASSAU AND NW
SUFFOLK COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL.

FOR HIGHS TODAY USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 975-850 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE METEOROLOGICAL ENHANCEMENT OF RIP
CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT ATLANTIC BEACHES INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
COULD SEE STORMS LINGER INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE NW 1/2 OF THE
CWA...OTHERWISE SHOULD BE DRY TONIGHT ABSENT ANY NOTABLE FORCING.
IT WILL BE NOTABLY HUMID...WITH DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO
MID 60S. LOWS TONIGHT WERE BASED ON A BLEND OF NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES WITH ECS/MET/MAV GUIDANCE...WITH VALUES AROUND 10-15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG
TONIGHT...DEPENDING ON EXACTLY WHERE/HOW MUCH IT RAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. NOTING THAT FOG HAS NOT MATERIALIZED THE PAST FEW
NIGHTS...DO NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO CONTINUE WITH PATCHY FOG
IN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT.

MODELS DIFFER ON COVERAGE/EXTENT OF CONVECTION WITH A COLD FRONT
ON THURSDAY. ALSO DIFFER ON TIMING WITH THE GFS/ECMWF FASTER THAN
THE NAM/CMC-REG. NOTING 700-500 HPA FLOW HAS A FAIRLY DECENT
PERPENDICULAR COMPONENT TO THE FRONT...LEANED TOWARDS THE FASTER
TIMING OF THE GFS/ECMWF FOR POPS. WITH A WEAKENING FRONT
THOUGH...DID NOT FEEL COMFORTABLE GOING WITH HIGHER THAN CHANCE
POPS AT THIS TIME...AND KEPT SE SUFFOLK COUNTY AT SLIGHT CHANCE.
PROBABILITIES ARE HIGHEST OVER THE NW 1/2 OF THE CWA WHERE THE
INSTABILITY IS HIGHEST.

WITH SLIGHTLY LESS CAPE - 1000-2000 J/KG OVER THE INTERIOR THAN
TODAY...AND THE BEST DYNAMIC FORCING FORECAST TO THE N OF THE
REGION...DO NOT THINK THERE IS AS MUCH OF A THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. THOUGH AN ISOLATED OR TWO STRONG TO SEVERE STORM CANNOT
BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.

FOR HIGHS THURSDAY USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 975 TO 825 HPA
PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIXTURE
OF ECS/MAV/MET GUIDANCE. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 10-15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF A FEW LOCATIONS IN NE
NJ AND/OR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF NYC CAME IN WITH A HIGH AT OR JUST
ABOVE 90.DEWPOINTS ON THURSDAY SHOULD BE A TAD LOWER THAN
TODAY...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S...SO HEAT INDICES SHOULD PEAK OUT
IN WARMER AREAS IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE
DISSIPATING OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY. LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT. HEIGHTS BUILD ALOFT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
ANY CONVECTION FRIDAY OR SATURDAY WILL BE ISOLATED...DIURNAL IN
NATURE...AND LIKELY WELL INLAND. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.

MAIN QUESTION IN THE LONG TERM WILL COME DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND AND START OF THE NEW WEEK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
THE 00Z OPERATIONAL GFS STILL REMAINS THE FASTER AND MORE MORE
AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION. WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WITH THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER
00Z ECMWF...WHICH DOES NOT BRING THE FRONT THROUGH UNTIL SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO INTRODUCE SOME LOW CHANCE POPS
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
COULD DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT ITSELF.

BOTH MODEL SOLUTIONS KEEP THE FRONT IN THE VICINITY OF THE FORECAST
AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED RAINFALL EVENT LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY WARM THROUGH SAT...THEN COOLS
DOWN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TODAY...AND DISSIPATE
OVER THE AREA THU.

MAINLY VFR THIS MRNG...HOWEVER THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
POCKETS OF STRATUS AND BR WHICH COULD BRING MVFR. ANY MVFR BURNS
OFF BY 13-15Z EXCEPT KGON WHERE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT IT
COULD LINGER MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE DAY. OTHERWISE...AFTN TSTMS
LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AFT 18Z. THE
ACTIVITY MAY HOLD TOGETHER TO IMPACT AREAS ROUGHLY ALONG AND W OF
A KHPN-KEWR LINE.

MVFR OR LOWER AT TIMES TNGT WITH STRATUS AND POSSIBLY FOG.

S TO SW FLOW THRU THE TAF PERIOD. HIGHEST SPEEDS THIS AFTN INTO
EARLY EVE...ESPECIALLY INVOF KJFK WHERE SUSTAINED AROUND 20KT
EXPECTED.


...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW PROB FOR MVFR CIGS THRU 14Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW PROB FOR MVFR CIGS THRU 14Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW PROB FOR MVFR CIGS THRU 14Z.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.


.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.LATE TNGT...MVFR OR LOWER AT TIMES WITH SW FLOW.
.THU...MRNG MVFR OR LOWER. SCT TSTMS POSSIBLE INVOF A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT. SW FLOW DIMINISHING AND POSSIBLY BECOMING NW OR VRB.
.FRI...VFR WITH LGT NE WINDS VEERING THRU THE DAY.
.SAT...MRNG MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE. CHC SHWRS AND TSTMS IN THE
AFTN AND OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR OR LOWER. STRONG SLY FLOW.
.SUN...POSSIBLE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR. NE WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS SHOULD REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 5 FT OVER AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT...SO HAVE
CONTINUED THE SCA THERE.

ONCE AGAIN APPEARS THE SEA BREEZE WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING
GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT TO THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS AND TO NEW YORK
HARBOR AND THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND. HAVE ISSUED A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THOSE TWO ZONES FROM NOON UNTIL MIDNIGHT
AS WELL. ON THE SOUND AND EASTERN BAYS OF LONG ISLAND...GUSTS
SHOULD PEAK OUT AT 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH MAYBE SOME
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KT.

FOR THURSDAY FOR NOW IT APPEARS SEABREEZE SHOULD BE WEAKER...AND
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLIGHTLY MORE RELAXED...SO EXPECTING SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS.

HAVE ADJUSTED WAVEWATCH DOWN 1 FT TODAY-THURSDAY...AS IT HAS
GENERALLY BEEN OVER FORECASTING WAVE HEIGHTS AT THE BUOYS BY
ABOUT THAT AMOUNT.

THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF OFFSHORE WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND
A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT. THEN...MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON
THE OCEAN WATERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A
MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR BASIN AVERAGE OF AROUND 1/4 AN INCH OF
RAINFALL ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY/NE NJ/SW CT THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS...DOWN TO ZERO ELSEWHERE.

NOTING PRECIPITABLE WATERS FORECAST TO BE AROUND 1.75 INCHES AND
STORM MOTION FORECAST TO BE AROUND 10 KT...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SLOW MOVING STORMS THAT PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN ANY
STRONGER CONVECTION. THIS COULD LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING OF
URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

ON THURSDAY THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LESS THAN 1/4 OF AN INCH OF
BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL. HOWEVER...WITH STORM MOTION OF AROUND 10
KT AND PRECIPITABLE WATERS AROUND 1.25 INCHES...THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SLOW MOVING STORMS PRODUCING LOCALLY MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS COULD RESULT IN THE MINOR FLOODING OF
URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...ESPECIALLY IF IT OCCURS OVER AREAS
RECEIVING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED RAINFALL EVENT LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT
     FOR ANZ338-345.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...BC/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...BC/MALOIT



000
FXUS61 KOKX 270839
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
439 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES FARTHER OFFSHORE TODAY. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...THEN CROSSES THE AREA ON
THURSDAY...SLIDING TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. A STRONGER COLD FRONT
WILL THEN IMPACT THE AREA FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MAIN FOCUS TODAY IS HOW MUCH CONVECTION DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO A
WEAK 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM UPSTATE SC
INTO OH...THAT CROSSES THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON IS AT CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN. SHOULD ALSO BE ABLE TO ACHIEVE SOME LIFT OVER THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY/NE NJ AS THE SEABREEZE INTERSECTS A WEAK THERMAL
TROUGH FORECAST TO SET UP THERE THIS AFTERNOON.

WITH FORECAST CAPES OVER THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY/NE NJ/SW CT ON
AVERAGE OF 1500-2500 J/KG...25-30KT OF 0-6KM SHEAR AND THE REGION
IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF A 85KT 300 HPA JET...HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THIS AREA. BULK RICHARDSON NUMBERS GENERALLY 25-50 DO SUPPORT THE
POSSIBILITY OF A DISCRETE SUPERCELL...WITH MAINLY MULTICELLULAR
CONVECTION. THE SEVERE THREAT IS GENERALLY CONSISTENT WITH SPC/S
AREA OF MARGINAL AND SLIGHT RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA.
NOT QUITE SO SURE ABOUT THE MARGINAL RISK OVER NYC...AS SEABREEZE
COULD STABILIZE THINGS BEFORE ANY CONVECTION ARRIVES THERE. FOR
THAT REASON WILL ONLY HIGHLIGHT THE SEVERE THREAT IN THE HWO FOR
THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY/NE NJ AND SW CT AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER
CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM MOVING INTO NYC.
THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS. THERE IS ALSO THE
THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY STRONGER
CONVECTION...REFER TO THE HYDROLOGY SECTION OF THE AFD FOR
DETAILS.

FOR NOW APPEARS MOST IF NOT ALL OF LONG ISLAND AND
SE CT SHOULD BE TOO STABLE IN THE LOW LEVELS DUE TO MARINE
INFLUENCE TO KEEP ANY CONVECTION AT BAY...HOWEVER DUE TO PROXIMITY
DUE HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN N MIDDLESEX...N NASSAU AND NW
SUFFOLK COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL.

FOR HIGHS TODAY USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 975-850 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE METEOROLOGICAL ENHANCEMENT OF RIP
CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT ATLANTIC BEACHES INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
COULD SEE STORMS LINGER INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE NW 1/2 OF THE
CWA...OTHERWISE SHOULD BE DRY TONIGHT ABSENT ANY NOTABLE FORCING.
IT WILL BE NOTABLY HUMID...WITH DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO
MID 60S. LOWS TONIGHT WERE BASED ON A BLEND OF NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES WITH ECS/MET/MAV GUIDANCE...WITH VALUES AROUND 10-15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG
TONIGHT...DEPENDING ON EXACTLY WHERE/HOW MUCH IT RAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. NOTING THAT FOG HAS NOT MATERIALIZED THE PAST FEW
NIGHTS...DO NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO CONTINUE WITH PATCHY FOG
IN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT.

MODELS DIFFER ON COVERAGE/EXTENT OF CONVECTION WITH A COLD FRONT
ON THURSDAY. ALSO DIFFER ON TIMING WITH THE GFS/ECMWF FASTER THAN
THE NAM/CMC-REG. NOTING 700-500 HPA FLOW HAS A FAIRLY DECENT
PERPENDICULAR COMPONENT TO THE FRONT...LEANED TOWARDS THE FASTER
TIMING OF THE GFS/ECMWF FOR POPS. WITH A WEAKENING FRONT
THOUGH...DID NOT FEEL COMFORTABLE GOING WITH HIGHER THAN CHANCE
POPS AT THIS TIME...AND KEPT SE SUFFOLK COUNTY AT SLIGHT CHANCE.
PROBABILITIES ARE HIGHEST OVER THE NW 1/2 OF THE CWA WHERE THE
INSTABILITY IS HIGHEST.

WITH SLIGHTLY LESS CAPE - 1000-2000 J/KG OVER THE INTERIOR THAN
TODAY...AND THE BEST DYNAMIC FORCING FORECAST TO THE N OF THE
REGION...DO NOT THINK THERE IS AS MUCH OF A THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. THOUGH AN ISOLATED OR TWO STRONG TO SEVERE STORM CANNOT
BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.

FOR HIGHS THURSDAY USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 975 TO 825 HPA
PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIXTURE
OF ECS/MAV/MET GUIDANCE. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 10-15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF A FEW LOCATIONS IN NE
NJ AND/OR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF NYC CAME IN WITH A HIGH AT OR JUST
ABOVE 90.DEWPOINTS ON THURSDAY SHOULD BE A TAD LOWER THAN
TODAY...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S...SO HEAT INDICES SHOULD PEAK OUT
IN WARMER AREAS IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE
DISSIPATING OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY. LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT. HEIGHTS BUILD ALOFT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
ANY CONVECTION FRIDAY OR SATURDAY WILL BE ISOLATED...DIURNAL IN
NATURE...AND LIKELY WELL INLAND. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.

MAIN QUESTION IN THE LONG TERM WILL COME DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND AND START OF THE NEW WEEK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
THE 00Z OPERATIONAL GFS STILL REMAINS THE FASTER AND MORE MORE
AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION. WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WITH THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER
00Z ECMWF...WHICH DOES NOT BRING THE FRONT THROUGH UNTIL SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO INTRODUCE SOME LOW CHANCE POPS
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
COULD DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT ITSELF.

BOTH MODEL SOLUTIONS KEEP THE FRONT IN THE VICINITY OF THE FORECAST
AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED RAINFALL EVENT LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY WARM THROUGH SAT...THEN COOLS
DOWN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TODAY...AND DISSIPATE
OVER THE AREA THU.

MAINLY VFR THIS MRNG...HOWEVER THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
POCKETS OF STRATUS AND BR WHICH COULD BRING MVFR. ANY MVFR BURNS
OFF BY 13-15Z EXCEPT KGON WHERE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT IT
COULD LINGER MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE DAY. OTHERWISE...AFTN TSTMS
LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AFT 18Z. THE
ACTIVITY MAY HOLD TOGETHER TO IMPACT AREAS ROUGHLY ALONG AND W OF
A KHPN-KEWR LINE.

MVFR OR LOWER AT TIMES TNGT WITH STRATUS AND POSSIBLY FOG.

S TO SW FLOW THRU THE TAF PERIOD. HIGHEST SPEEDS THIS AFTN INTO
EARLY EVE...ESPECIALLY INVOF KJFK WHERE SUSTAINED AROUND 20KT
EXPECTED.


...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW PROB FOR MVFR CIGS THRU 14Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW PROB FOR MVFR CIGS THRU 14Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW PROB FOR MVFR CIGS THRU 14Z.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.


.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.LATE TNGT...MVFR OR LOWER AT TIMES WITH SW FLOW.
.THU...MRNG MVFR OR LOWER. SCT TSTMS POSSIBLE INVOF A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT. SW FLOW DIMINISHING AND POSSIBLY BECOMING NW OR VRB.
.FRI...VFR WITH LGT NE WINDS VEERING THRU THE DAY.
.SAT...MRNG MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE. CHC SHWRS AND TSTMS IN THE
AFTN AND OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR OR LOWER. STRONG SLY FLOW.
.SUN...POSSIBLE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR. NE WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS SHOULD REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 5 FT OVER AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT...SO HAVE
CONTINUED THE SCA THERE.

ONCE AGAIN APPEARS THE SEA BREEZE WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING
GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT TO THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS AND TO NEW YORK
HARBOR AND THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND. HAVE ISSUED A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THOSE TWO ZONES FROM NOON UNTIL MIDNIGHT
AS WELL. ON THE SOUND AND EASTERN BAYS OF LONG ISLAND...GUSTS
SHOULD PEAK OUT AT 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH MAYBE SOME
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KT.

FOR THURSDAY FOR NOW IT APPEARS SEABREEZE SHOULD BE WEAKER...AND
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLIGHTLY MORE RELAXED...SO EXPECTING SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS.

HAVE ADJUSTED WAVEWATCH DOWN 1 FT TODAY-THURSDAY...AS IT HAS
GENERALLY BEEN OVER FORECASTING WAVE HEIGHTS AT THE BUOYS BY
ABOUT THAT AMOUNT.

THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF OFFSHORE WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND
A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT. THEN...MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON
THE OCEAN WATERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A
MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR BASIN AVERAGE OF AROUND 1/4 AN INCH OF
RAINFALL ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY/NE NJ/SW CT THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS...DOWN TO ZERO ELSEWHERE.

NOTING PRECIPITABLE WATERS FORECAST TO BE AROUND 1.75 INCHES AND
STORM MOTION FORECAST TO BE AROUND 10 KT...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SLOW MOVING STORMS THAT PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN ANY
STRONGER CONVECTION. THIS COULD LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING OF
URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

ON THURSDAY THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LESS THAN 1/4 OF AN INCH OF
BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL. HOWEVER...WITH STORM MOTION OF AROUND 10
KT AND PRECIPITABLE WATERS AROUND 1.25 INCHES...THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SLOW MOVING STORMS PRODUCING LOCALLY MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS COULD RESULT IN THE MINOR FLOODING OF
URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...ESPECIALLY IF IT OCCURS OVER AREAS
RECEIVING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED RAINFALL EVENT LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT
     FOR ANZ338-345.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...BC/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...BC/MALOIT




000
FXUS61 KALY 270824
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
424 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY.  AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WELL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL FOCUS SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING.  THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
THURSDAY WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH DRIER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

AS OF 423 AM EDT...A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IS OVER THE
FCST AREA THIS MORNING WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S TO L70S. A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED ALONG THE EAST COAST CONTINUES TO
FUNNEL IN THE HUMID AIR. UPSTREAM ON THE WATER VAPOR LOOP AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE WRN GREAT
LAKES REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL ARRIVE ON THU...A SHORT-WAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE OH VALLEY INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES...WRN NY AND
PA THIS MORNING...AND A PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH WILL BE THE LIFTING
MECHANISMS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. SOME LOCAL
CSTAR WORK WITH SUNYA HAS SHOWN THAT PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGHS CAN
YIELD SOME SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WX EVENTS ACROSS NY AND NEW ENGLAND.

SPC HAS THE ENTIRE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK...ACTUALLY IT IS A VERY
LARGE AREA THAT EXTENDS FROM NRN ME TO DC WITH THE LATEST DAY 1
GRAPHIC. THERE IS PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH SFC
DEWPTS IN THE LOWER TO M60S...AND SOME SPOTTY U60S. PWATS WILL
RISE TO THE 1.25-1.75 INCH RANGE WITH SOME ISOLATED VALUES CLOSER
TO 2"...ESPECIALLY WHERE IT RAINS BASED ON THE BUFKIT AND MODEL
PROFILES. THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES INCREASE TO 30-40 KTS BY
THE LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH THE GREATER SHEAR
FROM ROUGHLY THE I-90 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD...AND LESSER AMOUNTS TO
THE SOUTH. INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO BE VARIABLE ON THE GUIDANCE
DUE TO THE VARYING AMOUNTS OF CLOUD COVER...AND SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE SHOWING SFC DEWPTS IN THE LOWER 70S. CAN NOT REALLY FIND
ANY 70F DEWPT AIR UNLESS ONE GOES INTO THE LOWER MID ATLANTIC
REGION. THEREFORE...LEANING CLOSER TO THE GFS SBCAPE PROFILES WITH
1000-2000 J/KG OF INSTABILITY...WITH SOME SLIGHTLY LOWER AMOUNTS
AND POSSIBLE SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS. IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST
INTERSECTION OF THE SHEAR AND CAPE PROFILES WILL BE IN THE NOON TO
6 PM TIME FRAME. THE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT VERY STEEP
BASED ON THE NAM/GFS/EC GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME HIGH
DCAPE VALUES PROGGED AROUND THE 1000 J/KG RANGE. THE SOUNDINGS ARE
VERY UNIDIRECTIONAL...AND THE ORGANIZED CONVECTION WOULD LIKELY
FAVOR MULTICELLS EVOLVING INTO A FEW CLUSTERS OR LINES OF STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH BOWING SEGMENTS AND DAMAGING WINDS
THE MAIN THREATS. WE HAVE PHRASED THE ZONES AS CHC OF
THUNDERSTORMS...AND SOME MAY BE SEVERE.

THE LATEST HRRR LAYER COMP REF PRODUCT FAVORS THE CONVECTION
DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN NOON AND 3 PM FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
WEST. MULTICELLS FORMING INTO CLUSTERS AND LINES ARE THE MODE
DEPICTED. THE ANOMALOUS PWAT VALUES AND MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL FAVOR HEAVY RAINFALL. THE CELLS SHOULD BE MOVING
ALONG...BUT THE PARCHED GROUND MAY NOT ALLOW ABSORPTION QUICKLY
AND RUNOFF COULD BE AN ISSUE FOR AN ISOLD FLASH FLOOD. THE HYDRO
SERVICE AREA DESPERATELY NEEDS THE RAIN...SINCE MOST AREAS ARE IN
D1 OR A MODERATE DROUGHT.

THE MAIN POTENTIAL INHIBITORS FOR A MAJOR/WIDESPREAD SEVERE EVENT
FOR THE CWA WOULD BE CLOUDS LIMITING THE INSTABILITY AND THE WEAK
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ALSO...THE BETTER JET DYNAMICS LAG UPSTREAM
TIED TO THE UPPER TROUGH AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT FOR THU
MORNING. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE A H250 JET STREAK DOES
GET CLOSE TO W-CNTRL NY BTWN 18Z- 00Z. OVERALL...WE DO FEEL
CONFIDENT THAT THE FCST AREA WILL GET SOME ACTIVE OR SEVERE
WX...JUST NOT CLEAR IF IT WILL BE A MINOR OR MAJOR EVENT. HIGH
TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEY
AREAS...AND 70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...THE SFC TROUGH MOVES THROUGH WITH THE SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ENDING IN THE EARLY EVENING. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
LULL IN THE ACTIVITY...BUT THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
APPROACHING THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND WRN NY. SOME SLIGHT AND
LOW CHC POPS WERE KEPT IN WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY BTWN
09Z-12Z SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
LOWS WILL STILL BE MILD IN THE MID AND U60S IN THE VALLEY
AREAS...AND U50S TO L60S OVER THE MTNS.

THU...THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE IN AGREEMENT WITH A FASTER
PROGRESSION OF THE SFC COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH. IF
IT LAGS A LITTLE...THEN THE SOUTHEAST EXTREME OF THE FCST AREA /MID
HUDSON VALLEY...SRN BERKS...AND NW CT/ WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED
FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. RIGHT NOW...ALL OF OUR
FCST AREA IS IN A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK. THE INSTABILITY
LOOKS MUCH LESS THAN TODAYS...AND THE BETTER DYNAMICS WITH THE
UPPER JET GOES N/NE INTO SRN QUEBEC...NRN NY...AND NRN NEW
ENGLAND. A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN
EVERYWHERE INTO THE EARLY TO MID PM...THEN QUICKLY DIMINISHED FROM
THE W/NW TO S/SE. MAX TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY WITH THE COLD ADVECTION
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...AND STRONG MIXING OR DOWNSLOPING
OCCURRING. EXPECT BRISK W/NW WINDS DURING THE PM. H850 TEMPS FALL
TO +8C TO +13C BY THE 00Z/FRI FROM NW TO SE OVER THE AREA. HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE U60S TO L70S OVER THE SRN DACKS/W-CNTRL MOHAWK
VALLEY TO M70S TO L80S OVER THE REST OF THE REGION...EXCEPT SOME
U60S/L70S OVER THE CATSKILLS/SRN GREENS...AND M80S OVER THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

THU NIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES DOWNSTREAM...AND BRISK
W/NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS SFC ANTICYCLONE RIDGES IN FROM THE
NORTH AND WEST EARLY ON...AND SETTLES OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND BY
FRI MORNING. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL DECREASE COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE M40S TO L50S OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND
U50S OVER THE VALLEY AREAS.

FRIDAY...THE SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...AND
THE SFC HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSE THE WEEK. THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE WILL BE IN CONTROL AGAIN. A DRY AND LESS HUMID DAY IS
EXPECTED...BUT THE S/SW FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT UPSTREAM. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND 70S TO NEAR
80F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE FAIRLY NICE
STILL WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRI-SAT SHOULD TREND BACK TO NEAR...OR
POSSIBLY EVEN A BIT BELOW NORMAL BY SUN-TUE...AS THE EAST COAST
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEAMPLIFIES WITH THE APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
FROM SOUTHERN CANADA. AS IT DEAMPLIFIES...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION SOMETIME LATE SAT OR EARLY SUN. THIS SHOULD BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. DEPENDING ON ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE INCOMING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES/SE CANADA...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE COLD
FRONT SLOWS DOWN AND/OR A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG IT AND TRACKS SOUTH OF
THE REGION. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...SHOWERS OR EVEN A PERIOD OF STEADY
RAIN COULD LINGER IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR SUN INTO EARLY
MON...ESP ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.


FOR SAT-MON...THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT SHOULD APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATER SAT...AND SLOWLY PRESS SOUTH AND EAST SAT NT INTO
EARLY SUN. WILL INDICATE HIGH CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS FOR
SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR SAT AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...GRADUALLY TAPERING
DOWNWARD FROM NW TO SE ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST THE FRONT REACHES...AND WHETHER A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO
LOW CHC FOR MOST CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS INTO MON. MAX TEMPS
SHOULD BE RATHER WARM SAT...WITH TEMPS REACHING 85-90 IN VALLEYS AND
LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. DEWPOINTS SHOULD RISE INTO
THE LOWER 60S...SO APPARENT TEMPS SHOULD BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
ACTUAL HIGH TEMPS OF 85-90. SAT NT/SUN AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
50S TO LOWER 60S...THEN EXPECT COOLER MAX TEMPS FOR SUN INTO
MON...WITH MAXES MAINLY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S SUN...AND MAINLY 60S
FOR MON. SUN NT/MON AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

MON NT-TUE...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACHES. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO LOW
CHC POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. MON
NT/TUE AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S...WITH TUE
MAX TEMPS REACHING 70-75 FOR MOST VALLEYS...AND 65-70 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL MAINTAIN A WARM
AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF TAF
SITES THROUGH 18Z ON WEDNESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE A PERIOD OF
FOG AND STRATUS AT KPSF BETWEEN 08Z AND 13Z EARLY THIS MORNING.
AFTER 18Z...EXPECT A BAND OF AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH IN THE
FORECAST AFTER 18Z AT ALL THE TAF SITES...AND A PROB30 GROUP FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS (WIND
GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH) BETWEEN 18Z AND 22Z AT KGFL/KALB/KPOU...AND
19Z TO 23Z AT KPSF.

WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY AT 5-10 KT AT KALB...AND LIGHT AND
VARIABLE ELSEWHERE THROUGH A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. AFTER 13Z
WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST TO
8-12 KT...WITH GUSTS OF 15-20 KT BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.


OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY.  AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WELL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL FOCUS SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
THURSDAY WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH DRIER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 45 TO 60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
INCREASE TO 70 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND THE DECREASE TO 35 TO
55 PERCENT ON THURSDAY.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH
TODAY WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH...THEN 5 TO 15 MPH TONIGHT. THE WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME
GUSTS TO 30 MPH ON THURSDAY WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED MODERATE
DROUGHT AT THIS TIME.

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING ARE EXPECTED TODAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.25-1.75 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TODAY...SO STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS. AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD MAY BE POSSIBLE
IF STORMS REPEATEDLY MOVE OVER THE SAME AREA...OR THE DRY/PARCHED
GROUND DOES NOT ABSORB THE RAINFALL QUICKLY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...KL/GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 270824
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
424 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY.  AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WELL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL FOCUS SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING.  THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
THURSDAY WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH DRIER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

AS OF 423 AM EDT...A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IS OVER THE
FCST AREA THIS MORNING WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S TO L70S. A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED ALONG THE EAST COAST CONTINUES TO
FUNNEL IN THE HUMID AIR. UPSTREAM ON THE WATER VAPOR LOOP AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE WRN GREAT
LAKES REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL ARRIVE ON THU...A SHORT-WAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE OH VALLEY INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES...WRN NY AND
PA THIS MORNING...AND A PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH WILL BE THE LIFTING
MECHANISMS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. SOME LOCAL
CSTAR WORK WITH SUNYA HAS SHOWN THAT PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGHS CAN
YIELD SOME SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WX EVENTS ACROSS NY AND NEW ENGLAND.

SPC HAS THE ENTIRE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK...ACTUALLY IT IS A VERY
LARGE AREA THAT EXTENDS FROM NRN ME TO DC WITH THE LATEST DAY 1
GRAPHIC. THERE IS PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH SFC
DEWPTS IN THE LOWER TO M60S...AND SOME SPOTTY U60S. PWATS WILL
RISE TO THE 1.25-1.75 INCH RANGE WITH SOME ISOLATED VALUES CLOSER
TO 2"...ESPECIALLY WHERE IT RAINS BASED ON THE BUFKIT AND MODEL
PROFILES. THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES INCREASE TO 30-40 KTS BY
THE LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH THE GREATER SHEAR
FROM ROUGHLY THE I-90 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD...AND LESSER AMOUNTS TO
THE SOUTH. INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO BE VARIABLE ON THE GUIDANCE
DUE TO THE VARYING AMOUNTS OF CLOUD COVER...AND SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE SHOWING SFC DEWPTS IN THE LOWER 70S. CAN NOT REALLY FIND
ANY 70F DEWPT AIR UNLESS ONE GOES INTO THE LOWER MID ATLANTIC
REGION. THEREFORE...LEANING CLOSER TO THE GFS SBCAPE PROFILES WITH
1000-2000 J/KG OF INSTABILITY...WITH SOME SLIGHTLY LOWER AMOUNTS
AND POSSIBLE SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS. IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST
INTERSECTION OF THE SHEAR AND CAPE PROFILES WILL BE IN THE NOON TO
6 PM TIME FRAME. THE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT VERY STEEP
BASED ON THE NAM/GFS/EC GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME HIGH
DCAPE VALUES PROGGED AROUND THE 1000 J/KG RANGE. THE SOUNDINGS ARE
VERY UNIDIRECTIONAL...AND THE ORGANIZED CONVECTION WOULD LIKELY
FAVOR MULTICELLS EVOLVING INTO A FEW CLUSTERS OR LINES OF STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH BOWING SEGMENTS AND DAMAGING WINDS
THE MAIN THREATS. WE HAVE PHRASED THE ZONES AS CHC OF
THUNDERSTORMS...AND SOME MAY BE SEVERE.

THE LATEST HRRR LAYER COMP REF PRODUCT FAVORS THE CONVECTION
DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN NOON AND 3 PM FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
WEST. MULTICELLS FORMING INTO CLUSTERS AND LINES ARE THE MODE
DEPICTED. THE ANOMALOUS PWAT VALUES AND MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL FAVOR HEAVY RAINFALL. THE CELLS SHOULD BE MOVING
ALONG...BUT THE PARCHED GROUND MAY NOT ALLOW ABSORPTION QUICKLY
AND RUNOFF COULD BE AN ISSUE FOR AN ISOLD FLASH FLOOD. THE HYDRO
SERVICE AREA DESPERATELY NEEDS THE RAIN...SINCE MOST AREAS ARE IN
D1 OR A MODERATE DROUGHT.

THE MAIN POTENTIAL INHIBITORS FOR A MAJOR/WIDESPREAD SEVERE EVENT
FOR THE CWA WOULD BE CLOUDS LIMITING THE INSTABILITY AND THE WEAK
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ALSO...THE BETTER JET DYNAMICS LAG UPSTREAM
TIED TO THE UPPER TROUGH AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT FOR THU
MORNING. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE A H250 JET STREAK DOES
GET CLOSE TO W-CNTRL NY BTWN 18Z- 00Z. OVERALL...WE DO FEEL
CONFIDENT THAT THE FCST AREA WILL GET SOME ACTIVE OR SEVERE
WX...JUST NOT CLEAR IF IT WILL BE A MINOR OR MAJOR EVENT. HIGH
TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEY
AREAS...AND 70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...THE SFC TROUGH MOVES THROUGH WITH THE SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ENDING IN THE EARLY EVENING. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
LULL IN THE ACTIVITY...BUT THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
APPROACHING THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND WRN NY. SOME SLIGHT AND
LOW CHC POPS WERE KEPT IN WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY BTWN
09Z-12Z SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
LOWS WILL STILL BE MILD IN THE MID AND U60S IN THE VALLEY
AREAS...AND U50S TO L60S OVER THE MTNS.

THU...THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE IN AGREEMENT WITH A FASTER
PROGRESSION OF THE SFC COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH. IF
IT LAGS A LITTLE...THEN THE SOUTHEAST EXTREME OF THE FCST AREA /MID
HUDSON VALLEY...SRN BERKS...AND NW CT/ WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED
FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. RIGHT NOW...ALL OF OUR
FCST AREA IS IN A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK. THE INSTABILITY
LOOKS MUCH LESS THAN TODAYS...AND THE BETTER DYNAMICS WITH THE
UPPER JET GOES N/NE INTO SRN QUEBEC...NRN NY...AND NRN NEW
ENGLAND. A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN
EVERYWHERE INTO THE EARLY TO MID PM...THEN QUICKLY DIMINISHED FROM
THE W/NW TO S/SE. MAX TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY WITH THE COLD ADVECTION
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...AND STRONG MIXING OR DOWNSLOPING
OCCURRING. EXPECT BRISK W/NW WINDS DURING THE PM. H850 TEMPS FALL
TO +8C TO +13C BY THE 00Z/FRI FROM NW TO SE OVER THE AREA. HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE U60S TO L70S OVER THE SRN DACKS/W-CNTRL MOHAWK
VALLEY TO M70S TO L80S OVER THE REST OF THE REGION...EXCEPT SOME
U60S/L70S OVER THE CATSKILLS/SRN GREENS...AND M80S OVER THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

THU NIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES DOWNSTREAM...AND BRISK
W/NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS SFC ANTICYCLONE RIDGES IN FROM THE
NORTH AND WEST EARLY ON...AND SETTLES OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND BY
FRI MORNING. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL DECREASE COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE M40S TO L50S OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND
U50S OVER THE VALLEY AREAS.

FRIDAY...THE SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...AND
THE SFC HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSE THE WEEK. THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE WILL BE IN CONTROL AGAIN. A DRY AND LESS HUMID DAY IS
EXPECTED...BUT THE S/SW FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT UPSTREAM. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND 70S TO NEAR
80F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE FAIRLY NICE
STILL WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRI-SAT SHOULD TREND BACK TO NEAR...OR
POSSIBLY EVEN A BIT BELOW NORMAL BY SUN-TUE...AS THE EAST COAST
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEAMPLIFIES WITH THE APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
FROM SOUTHERN CANADA. AS IT DEAMPLIFIES...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION SOMETIME LATE SAT OR EARLY SUN. THIS SHOULD BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. DEPENDING ON ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE INCOMING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES/SE CANADA...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE COLD
FRONT SLOWS DOWN AND/OR A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG IT AND TRACKS SOUTH OF
THE REGION. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...SHOWERS OR EVEN A PERIOD OF STEADY
RAIN COULD LINGER IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR SUN INTO EARLY
MON...ESP ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.


FOR SAT-MON...THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT SHOULD APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATER SAT...AND SLOWLY PRESS SOUTH AND EAST SAT NT INTO
EARLY SUN. WILL INDICATE HIGH CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS FOR
SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR SAT AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...GRADUALLY TAPERING
DOWNWARD FROM NW TO SE ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST THE FRONT REACHES...AND WHETHER A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO
LOW CHC FOR MOST CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS INTO MON. MAX TEMPS
SHOULD BE RATHER WARM SAT...WITH TEMPS REACHING 85-90 IN VALLEYS AND
LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. DEWPOINTS SHOULD RISE INTO
THE LOWER 60S...SO APPARENT TEMPS SHOULD BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
ACTUAL HIGH TEMPS OF 85-90. SAT NT/SUN AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
50S TO LOWER 60S...THEN EXPECT COOLER MAX TEMPS FOR SUN INTO
MON...WITH MAXES MAINLY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S SUN...AND MAINLY 60S
FOR MON. SUN NT/MON AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

MON NT-TUE...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACHES. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO LOW
CHC POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. MON
NT/TUE AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S...WITH TUE
MAX TEMPS REACHING 70-75 FOR MOST VALLEYS...AND 65-70 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL MAINTAIN A WARM
AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF TAF
SITES THROUGH 18Z ON WEDNESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE A PERIOD OF
FOG AND STRATUS AT KPSF BETWEEN 08Z AND 13Z EARLY THIS MORNING.
AFTER 18Z...EXPECT A BAND OF AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH IN THE
FORECAST AFTER 18Z AT ALL THE TAF SITES...AND A PROB30 GROUP FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS (WIND
GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH) BETWEEN 18Z AND 22Z AT KGFL/KALB/KPOU...AND
19Z TO 23Z AT KPSF.

WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY AT 5-10 KT AT KALB...AND LIGHT AND
VARIABLE ELSEWHERE THROUGH A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. AFTER 13Z
WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST TO
8-12 KT...WITH GUSTS OF 15-20 KT BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.


OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY.  AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WELL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL FOCUS SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
THURSDAY WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH DRIER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 45 TO 60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
INCREASE TO 70 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND THE DECREASE TO 35 TO
55 PERCENT ON THURSDAY.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH
TODAY WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH...THEN 5 TO 15 MPH TONIGHT. THE WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME
GUSTS TO 30 MPH ON THURSDAY WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED MODERATE
DROUGHT AT THIS TIME.

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING ARE EXPECTED TODAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.25-1.75 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TODAY...SO STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS. AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD MAY BE POSSIBLE
IF STORMS REPEATEDLY MOVE OVER THE SAME AREA...OR THE DRY/PARCHED
GROUND DOES NOT ABSORB THE RAINFALL QUICKLY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...KL/GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA



000
FXUS61 KOKX 270817
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
417 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES FARTHER OFFSHORE TODAY. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...THEN CROSSES THE AREA ON
THURSDAY...SLIDING TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. A STRONGER COLD FRONT
WILL THEN IMPACT THE AREA FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MAIN FOCUS TODAY IS HOW MUCH CONVECTION DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO A
WEAK 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM UPSTATE SC
INTO OH...THAT CROSSES THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON IS AT CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN. SHOULD ALSO BE ABLE TO ACHIEVE SOME LIFT OVER THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY/NE NJ AS THE SEABREEZE INTERSECTS A WEAK THERMAL
TROUGH FORECAST TO SET UP THERE THIS AFTERNOON.

WITH FORECAST CAPES OVER THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY/NE NJ/SW CT ON
AVERAGE OF 1500-2500 J/KG...25-30KT OF 0-6KM SHEAR AND THE REGION
IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF A 85KT 300 HPA JET...HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THIS AREA. BULK RICHARDSON NUMBERS GENERALLY 25-50 DO SUPPORT THE
POSSIBILITY OF A DISCRETE SUPERCELL...WITH MAINLY MULTICELLULAR
CONVECTION. THE SEVERE THREAT IS GENERALLY CONSISTENT WITH SPC/S
AREA OF MARGINAL AND SLIGHT RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA.
NOT QUITE SO SURE ABOUT THE MARGINAL RISK OVER NYC...AS SEABREEZE
COULD STABILIZE THINGS BEFORE ANY CONVECTION ARRIVES THERE. FOR
THAT REASON WILL ONLY HIGHLIGHT THE SEVERE THREAT IN THE HWO FOR
THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY/NE NJ AND SW CT AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER
CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM MOVING INTO NYC.
THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS. THERE IS ALSO THE
THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY STRONGER
CONVECTION...REFER TO THE HYDROLOGY SECTION OF THE AFD FOR
DETAILS.

FOR NOW APPEARS MOST IF NOT ALL OF LONG ISLAND AND
SE CT SHOULD BE TOO STABLE IN THE LOW LEVELS DUE TO MARINE
INFLUENCE TO KEEP ANY CONVECTION AT BAY...HOWEVER DUE TO PROXIMITY
DUE HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN N MIDDLESEX...N NASSAU AND NW
SUFFOLK COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL.

FOR HIGHS TODAY USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 975-850 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE METEOROLOGICAL ENHANCEMENT OF RIP
CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT ATLANTIC BEACHES INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
COULD SEE STORMS LINGER INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE NW 1/2 OF THE
CWA...OTHERWISE SHOULD BE DRY TONIGHT ABSENT ANY NOTABLE FORCING.
IT WILL BE NOTABLY HUMID...WITH DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO
MID 60S. LOWS TONIGHT WERE BASED ON A BLEND OF NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES WITH ECS/MET/MAV GUIDANCE...WITH VALUES AROUND 10-15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG
TONIGHT...DEPENDING ON EXACTLY WHERE/HOW MUCH IT RAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. NOTING THAT FOG HAS NOT MATERIALIZED THE PAST FEW
NIGHTS...DO NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO CONTINUE WITH PATCHY FOG
IN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT.

MODELS DIFFER ON COVERAGE/EXTENT OF CONVECTION WITH A COLD FRONT
ON THURSDAY. ALSO DIFFER ON TIMING WITH THE GFS/ECMWF FASTER THAN
THE NAM/CMC-REG. NOTING 700-500 HPA FLOW HAS A FAIRLY DECENT
PERPENDICULAR COMPONENT TO THE FRONT...LEANED TOWARDS THE FASTER
TIMING OF THE GFS/ECMWF FOR POPS. WITH A WEAKENING FRONT
THOUGH...DID NOT FEEL COMFORTABLE GOING WITH HIGHER THAN CHANCE
POPS AT THIS TIME...AND KEPT SE SUFFOLK COUNTY AT SLIGHT CHANCE.
PROBABILITIES ARE HIGHEST OVER THE NW 1/2 OF THE CWA WHERE THE
INSTABILITY IS HIGHEST.

WITH SLIGHTLY LESS CAPE - 1000-2000 J/KG OVER THE INTERIOR THAN
TODAY...AND THE BEST DYNAMIC FORCING FORECAST TO THE N OF THE
REGION...DO NOT THINK THERE IS AS MUCH OF A THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. THOUGH AN ISOLATED OR TWO STRONG TO SEVERE STORM CANNOT
BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.

FOR HIGHS THURSDAY USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 975 TO 825 HPA
PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIXTURE
OF ECS/MAV/MET GUIDANCE. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 10-15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF A FEW LOCATIONS IN NE
NJ AND/OR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF NYC CAME IN WITH A HIGH AT OR JUST
ABOVE 90.DEWPOINTS ON THURSDAY SHOULD BE A TAD LOWER THAN
TODAY...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S...SO HEAT INDICES SHOULD PEAK OUT
IN WARMER AREAS IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE
DISSIPATING OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY. LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT. HEIGHTS BUILD ALOFT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
ANY CONVECTION FRIDAY OR SATURDAY WILL BE ISOLATED...DIURNAL IN
NATURE...AND LIKELY WELL INLAND. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.

MAIN QUESTION IN THE LONG TERM WILL COME DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND AND START OF THE NEW WEEK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
THE 00Z OPERATIONAL GFS STILL REMAINS THE FASTER AND MORE MORE
AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION. WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WITH THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER
00Z ECMWF...WHICH DOES NOT BRING THE FRONT THROUGH UNTIL SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO INTRODUCE SOME LOW CHANCE POPS
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
COULD DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT ITSELF.

BOTH MODEL SOLUTIONS KEEP THE FRONT IN THE VICINITY OF THE FORECAST
AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED RAINFALL EVENT LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY WARM THROUGH SAT...THEN COOLS
DOWN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TODAY...AND DISSIPATE
OVER THE AREA THU.

MAINLY VFR THIS MRNG...HOWEVER THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
POCKETS OF STRATUS AND BR WHICH COULD BRING MVFR. ANY MVFR BURNS
OFF BY 13-15Z EXCEPT KGON WHERE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT IT
COULD LINGER MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE DAY. OTHERWISE...AFTN TSTMS
LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AFT 18Z. THE
ACTIVITY MAY HOLD TOGETHER TO IMPACT AREAS ROUGHLY ALONG AND W OF
A KHPN-KEWR LINE.

MVFR OR LOWER AT TIMES TNGT WITH STRATUS AND POSSIBLY FOG.

SW FLOW THRU THE TAF PERIOD. HIGHEST SPEEDS THIS AFTN INTO EARLY
EVE...ESPECIALLY INVOF KJFK WHERE SUSTAINED AROUND 20KT EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.LATE WED NGT...MVFR OR LOWER AT TIMES WITH SW FLOW.
.THU...MRNG MVFR OR LOWER. SCT TSTMS POSSIBLE INVOF A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT. SW FLOW DIMINISHING AND POSSIBLY BECOMING NW OR VRB.
.FRI...VFR WITH LGT NE WINDS VEERING THRU THE DAY.
.SAT...MRNG MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE. CHC SHWRS AND TSTMS IN THE
AFTN AND OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR OR LOWER. STRONG SLY FLOW.
.SUN...POSSIBLE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR. NE WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS SHOULD REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 5 FT OVER AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT...SO HAVE
CONTINUED THE SCA THERE.

ONCE AGAIN APPEARS THE SEA BREEZE WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING
GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT TO THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS AND TO NEW YORK
HARBOR AND THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND. HAVE ISSUED A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THOSE TWO ZONES FROM NOON UNTIL MIDNIGHT
AS WELL. ON THE SOUND AND EASTERN BAYS OF LONG ISLAND...GUSTS
SHOULD PEAK OUT AT 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH MAYBE SOME
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KT.

FOR THURSDAY FOR NOW IT APPEARS SEABREEZE SHOULD BE WEAKER...AND
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLIGHTLY MORE RELAXED...SO EXPECTING SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS.

HAVE ADJUSTED WAVEWATCH DOWN 1 FT TODAY-THURSDAY...AS IT HAS
GENERALLY BEEN OVER FORECASTING WAVE HEIGHTS AT THE BUOYS BY
ABOUT THAT AMOUNT.

THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF OFFSHORE WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND
A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT. THEN...MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON
THE OCEAN WATERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A
MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR BASIN AVERAGE OF AROUND 1/4 AN INCH OF
RAINFALL ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY/NE NJ/SW CT THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS...DOWN TO ZERO ELSEWHERE.

NOTING PRECIPITABLE WATERS FORECAST TO BE AROUND 1.75 INCHES AND
STORM MOTION FORECAST TO BE AROUND 10 KT...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SLOW MOVING STORMS THAT PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN ANY
STRONGER CONVECTION. THIS COULD LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING OF
URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

ON THURSDAY THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LESS THAN 1/4 OF AN INCH OF
BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL. HOWEVER...WITH STORM MOTION OF AROUND 10
KT AND PRECIPITABLE WATERS AROUND 1.25 INCHES...THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SLOW MOVING STORMS PRODUCING LOCALLY MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS COULD RESULT IN THE MINOR FLOODING OF
URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...ESPECIALLY IF IT OCCURS OVER AREAS
RECEIVING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED RAINFALL EVENT LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT
     FOR ANZ338-345.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/BC
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...MALOIT/BC
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/BC




000
FXUS61 KOKX 270817
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
417 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES FARTHER OFFSHORE TODAY. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...THEN CROSSES THE AREA ON
THURSDAY...SLIDING TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. A STRONGER COLD FRONT
WILL THEN IMPACT THE AREA FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MAIN FOCUS TODAY IS HOW MUCH CONVECTION DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO A
WEAK 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM UPSTATE SC
INTO OH...THAT CROSSES THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON IS AT CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN. SHOULD ALSO BE ABLE TO ACHIEVE SOME LIFT OVER THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY/NE NJ AS THE SEABREEZE INTERSECTS A WEAK THERMAL
TROUGH FORECAST TO SET UP THERE THIS AFTERNOON.

WITH FORECAST CAPES OVER THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY/NE NJ/SW CT ON
AVERAGE OF 1500-2500 J/KG...25-30KT OF 0-6KM SHEAR AND THE REGION
IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF A 85KT 300 HPA JET...HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THIS AREA. BULK RICHARDSON NUMBERS GENERALLY 25-50 DO SUPPORT THE
POSSIBILITY OF A DISCRETE SUPERCELL...WITH MAINLY MULTICELLULAR
CONVECTION. THE SEVERE THREAT IS GENERALLY CONSISTENT WITH SPC/S
AREA OF MARGINAL AND SLIGHT RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA.
NOT QUITE SO SURE ABOUT THE MARGINAL RISK OVER NYC...AS SEABREEZE
COULD STABILIZE THINGS BEFORE ANY CONVECTION ARRIVES THERE. FOR
THAT REASON WILL ONLY HIGHLIGHT THE SEVERE THREAT IN THE HWO FOR
THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY/NE NJ AND SW CT AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER
CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM MOVING INTO NYC.
THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS. THERE IS ALSO THE
THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY STRONGER
CONVECTION...REFER TO THE HYDROLOGY SECTION OF THE AFD FOR
DETAILS.

FOR NOW APPEARS MOST IF NOT ALL OF LONG ISLAND AND
SE CT SHOULD BE TOO STABLE IN THE LOW LEVELS DUE TO MARINE
INFLUENCE TO KEEP ANY CONVECTION AT BAY...HOWEVER DUE TO PROXIMITY
DUE HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN N MIDDLESEX...N NASSAU AND NW
SUFFOLK COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL.

FOR HIGHS TODAY USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 975-850 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE METEOROLOGICAL ENHANCEMENT OF RIP
CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT ATLANTIC BEACHES INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
COULD SEE STORMS LINGER INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE NW 1/2 OF THE
CWA...OTHERWISE SHOULD BE DRY TONIGHT ABSENT ANY NOTABLE FORCING.
IT WILL BE NOTABLY HUMID...WITH DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO
MID 60S. LOWS TONIGHT WERE BASED ON A BLEND OF NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES WITH ECS/MET/MAV GUIDANCE...WITH VALUES AROUND 10-15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG
TONIGHT...DEPENDING ON EXACTLY WHERE/HOW MUCH IT RAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. NOTING THAT FOG HAS NOT MATERIALIZED THE PAST FEW
NIGHTS...DO NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO CONTINUE WITH PATCHY FOG
IN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT.

MODELS DIFFER ON COVERAGE/EXTENT OF CONVECTION WITH A COLD FRONT
ON THURSDAY. ALSO DIFFER ON TIMING WITH THE GFS/ECMWF FASTER THAN
THE NAM/CMC-REG. NOTING 700-500 HPA FLOW HAS A FAIRLY DECENT
PERPENDICULAR COMPONENT TO THE FRONT...LEANED TOWARDS THE FASTER
TIMING OF THE GFS/ECMWF FOR POPS. WITH A WEAKENING FRONT
THOUGH...DID NOT FEEL COMFORTABLE GOING WITH HIGHER THAN CHANCE
POPS AT THIS TIME...AND KEPT SE SUFFOLK COUNTY AT SLIGHT CHANCE.
PROBABILITIES ARE HIGHEST OVER THE NW 1/2 OF THE CWA WHERE THE
INSTABILITY IS HIGHEST.

WITH SLIGHTLY LESS CAPE - 1000-2000 J/KG OVER THE INTERIOR THAN
TODAY...AND THE BEST DYNAMIC FORCING FORECAST TO THE N OF THE
REGION...DO NOT THINK THERE IS AS MUCH OF A THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. THOUGH AN ISOLATED OR TWO STRONG TO SEVERE STORM CANNOT
BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.

FOR HIGHS THURSDAY USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 975 TO 825 HPA
PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIXTURE
OF ECS/MAV/MET GUIDANCE. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 10-15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF A FEW LOCATIONS IN NE
NJ AND/OR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF NYC CAME IN WITH A HIGH AT OR JUST
ABOVE 90.DEWPOINTS ON THURSDAY SHOULD BE A TAD LOWER THAN
TODAY...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S...SO HEAT INDICES SHOULD PEAK OUT
IN WARMER AREAS IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE
DISSIPATING OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY. LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT. HEIGHTS BUILD ALOFT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
ANY CONVECTION FRIDAY OR SATURDAY WILL BE ISOLATED...DIURNAL IN
NATURE...AND LIKELY WELL INLAND. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.

MAIN QUESTION IN THE LONG TERM WILL COME DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND AND START OF THE NEW WEEK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
THE 00Z OPERATIONAL GFS STILL REMAINS THE FASTER AND MORE MORE
AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION. WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WITH THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER
00Z ECMWF...WHICH DOES NOT BRING THE FRONT THROUGH UNTIL SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO INTRODUCE SOME LOW CHANCE POPS
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
COULD DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT ITSELF.

BOTH MODEL SOLUTIONS KEEP THE FRONT IN THE VICINITY OF THE FORECAST
AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED RAINFALL EVENT LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY WARM THROUGH SAT...THEN COOLS
DOWN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TODAY...AND DISSIPATE
OVER THE AREA THU.

MAINLY VFR THIS MRNG...HOWEVER THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
POCKETS OF STRATUS AND BR WHICH COULD BRING MVFR. ANY MVFR BURNS
OFF BY 13-15Z EXCEPT KGON WHERE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT IT
COULD LINGER MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE DAY. OTHERWISE...AFTN TSTMS
LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AFT 18Z. THE
ACTIVITY MAY HOLD TOGETHER TO IMPACT AREAS ROUGHLY ALONG AND W OF
A KHPN-KEWR LINE.

MVFR OR LOWER AT TIMES TNGT WITH STRATUS AND POSSIBLY FOG.

SW FLOW THRU THE TAF PERIOD. HIGHEST SPEEDS THIS AFTN INTO EARLY
EVE...ESPECIALLY INVOF KJFK WHERE SUSTAINED AROUND 20KT EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.LATE WED NGT...MVFR OR LOWER AT TIMES WITH SW FLOW.
.THU...MRNG MVFR OR LOWER. SCT TSTMS POSSIBLE INVOF A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT. SW FLOW DIMINISHING AND POSSIBLY BECOMING NW OR VRB.
.FRI...VFR WITH LGT NE WINDS VEERING THRU THE DAY.
.SAT...MRNG MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE. CHC SHWRS AND TSTMS IN THE
AFTN AND OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR OR LOWER. STRONG SLY FLOW.
.SUN...POSSIBLE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR. NE WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS SHOULD REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 5 FT OVER AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT...SO HAVE
CONTINUED THE SCA THERE.

ONCE AGAIN APPEARS THE SEA BREEZE WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING
GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT TO THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS AND TO NEW YORK
HARBOR AND THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND. HAVE ISSUED A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THOSE TWO ZONES FROM NOON UNTIL MIDNIGHT
AS WELL. ON THE SOUND AND EASTERN BAYS OF LONG ISLAND...GUSTS
SHOULD PEAK OUT AT 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH MAYBE SOME
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KT.

FOR THURSDAY FOR NOW IT APPEARS SEABREEZE SHOULD BE WEAKER...AND
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLIGHTLY MORE RELAXED...SO EXPECTING SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS.

HAVE ADJUSTED WAVEWATCH DOWN 1 FT TODAY-THURSDAY...AS IT HAS
GENERALLY BEEN OVER FORECASTING WAVE HEIGHTS AT THE BUOYS BY
ABOUT THAT AMOUNT.

THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF OFFSHORE WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND
A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT. THEN...MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON
THE OCEAN WATERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A
MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR BASIN AVERAGE OF AROUND 1/4 AN INCH OF
RAINFALL ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY/NE NJ/SW CT THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS...DOWN TO ZERO ELSEWHERE.

NOTING PRECIPITABLE WATERS FORECAST TO BE AROUND 1.75 INCHES AND
STORM MOTION FORECAST TO BE AROUND 10 KT...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SLOW MOVING STORMS THAT PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN ANY
STRONGER CONVECTION. THIS COULD LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING OF
URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

ON THURSDAY THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LESS THAN 1/4 OF AN INCH OF
BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL. HOWEVER...WITH STORM MOTION OF AROUND 10
KT AND PRECIPITABLE WATERS AROUND 1.25 INCHES...THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SLOW MOVING STORMS PRODUCING LOCALLY MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS COULD RESULT IN THE MINOR FLOODING OF
URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...ESPECIALLY IF IT OCCURS OVER AREAS
RECEIVING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED RAINFALL EVENT LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT
     FOR ANZ338-345.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/BC
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...MALOIT/BC
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/BC



000
FXUS61 KOKX 270817
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
417 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES FARTHER OFFSHORE TODAY. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...THEN CROSSES THE AREA ON
THURSDAY...SLIDING TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. A STRONGER COLD FRONT
WILL THEN IMPACT THE AREA FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MAIN FOCUS TODAY IS HOW MUCH CONVECTION DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO A
WEAK 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM UPSTATE SC
INTO OH...THAT CROSSES THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON IS AT CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN. SHOULD ALSO BE ABLE TO ACHIEVE SOME LIFT OVER THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY/NE NJ AS THE SEABREEZE INTERSECTS A WEAK THERMAL
TROUGH FORECAST TO SET UP THERE THIS AFTERNOON.

WITH FORECAST CAPES OVER THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY/NE NJ/SW CT ON
AVERAGE OF 1500-2500 J/KG...25-30KT OF 0-6KM SHEAR AND THE REGION
IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF A 85KT 300 HPA JET...HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THIS AREA. BULK RICHARDSON NUMBERS GENERALLY 25-50 DO SUPPORT THE
POSSIBILITY OF A DISCRETE SUPERCELL...WITH MAINLY MULTICELLULAR
CONVECTION. THE SEVERE THREAT IS GENERALLY CONSISTENT WITH SPC/S
AREA OF MARGINAL AND SLIGHT RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA.
NOT QUITE SO SURE ABOUT THE MARGINAL RISK OVER NYC...AS SEABREEZE
COULD STABILIZE THINGS BEFORE ANY CONVECTION ARRIVES THERE. FOR
THAT REASON WILL ONLY HIGHLIGHT THE SEVERE THREAT IN THE HWO FOR
THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY/NE NJ AND SW CT AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER
CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM MOVING INTO NYC.
THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS. THERE IS ALSO THE
THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY STRONGER
CONVECTION...REFER TO THE HYDROLOGY SECTION OF THE AFD FOR
DETAILS.

FOR NOW APPEARS MOST IF NOT ALL OF LONG ISLAND AND
SE CT SHOULD BE TOO STABLE IN THE LOW LEVELS DUE TO MARINE
INFLUENCE TO KEEP ANY CONVECTION AT BAY...HOWEVER DUE TO PROXIMITY
DUE HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN N MIDDLESEX...N NASSAU AND NW
SUFFOLK COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL.

FOR HIGHS TODAY USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 975-850 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE METEOROLOGICAL ENHANCEMENT OF RIP
CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT ATLANTIC BEACHES INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
COULD SEE STORMS LINGER INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE NW 1/2 OF THE
CWA...OTHERWISE SHOULD BE DRY TONIGHT ABSENT ANY NOTABLE FORCING.
IT WILL BE NOTABLY HUMID...WITH DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO
MID 60S. LOWS TONIGHT WERE BASED ON A BLEND OF NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES WITH ECS/MET/MAV GUIDANCE...WITH VALUES AROUND 10-15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG
TONIGHT...DEPENDING ON EXACTLY WHERE/HOW MUCH IT RAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. NOTING THAT FOG HAS NOT MATERIALIZED THE PAST FEW
NIGHTS...DO NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO CONTINUE WITH PATCHY FOG
IN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT.

MODELS DIFFER ON COVERAGE/EXTENT OF CONVECTION WITH A COLD FRONT
ON THURSDAY. ALSO DIFFER ON TIMING WITH THE GFS/ECMWF FASTER THAN
THE NAM/CMC-REG. NOTING 700-500 HPA FLOW HAS A FAIRLY DECENT
PERPENDICULAR COMPONENT TO THE FRONT...LEANED TOWARDS THE FASTER
TIMING OF THE GFS/ECMWF FOR POPS. WITH A WEAKENING FRONT
THOUGH...DID NOT FEEL COMFORTABLE GOING WITH HIGHER THAN CHANCE
POPS AT THIS TIME...AND KEPT SE SUFFOLK COUNTY AT SLIGHT CHANCE.
PROBABILITIES ARE HIGHEST OVER THE NW 1/2 OF THE CWA WHERE THE
INSTABILITY IS HIGHEST.

WITH SLIGHTLY LESS CAPE - 1000-2000 J/KG OVER THE INTERIOR THAN
TODAY...AND THE BEST DYNAMIC FORCING FORECAST TO THE N OF THE
REGION...DO NOT THINK THERE IS AS MUCH OF A THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. THOUGH AN ISOLATED OR TWO STRONG TO SEVERE STORM CANNOT
BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.

FOR HIGHS THURSDAY USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 975 TO 825 HPA
PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIXTURE
OF ECS/MAV/MET GUIDANCE. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 10-15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF A FEW LOCATIONS IN NE
NJ AND/OR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF NYC CAME IN WITH A HIGH AT OR JUST
ABOVE 90.DEWPOINTS ON THURSDAY SHOULD BE A TAD LOWER THAN
TODAY...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S...SO HEAT INDICES SHOULD PEAK OUT
IN WARMER AREAS IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE
DISSIPATING OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY. LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT. HEIGHTS BUILD ALOFT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
ANY CONVECTION FRIDAY OR SATURDAY WILL BE ISOLATED...DIURNAL IN
NATURE...AND LIKELY WELL INLAND. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.

MAIN QUESTION IN THE LONG TERM WILL COME DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND AND START OF THE NEW WEEK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
THE 00Z OPERATIONAL GFS STILL REMAINS THE FASTER AND MORE MORE
AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION. WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WITH THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER
00Z ECMWF...WHICH DOES NOT BRING THE FRONT THROUGH UNTIL SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO INTRODUCE SOME LOW CHANCE POPS
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
COULD DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT ITSELF.

BOTH MODEL SOLUTIONS KEEP THE FRONT IN THE VICINITY OF THE FORECAST
AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED RAINFALL EVENT LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY WARM THROUGH SAT...THEN COOLS
DOWN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TODAY...AND DISSIPATE
OVER THE AREA THU.

MAINLY VFR THIS MRNG...HOWEVER THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
POCKETS OF STRATUS AND BR WHICH COULD BRING MVFR. ANY MVFR BURNS
OFF BY 13-15Z EXCEPT KGON WHERE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT IT
COULD LINGER MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE DAY. OTHERWISE...AFTN TSTMS
LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AFT 18Z. THE
ACTIVITY MAY HOLD TOGETHER TO IMPACT AREAS ROUGHLY ALONG AND W OF
A KHPN-KEWR LINE.

MVFR OR LOWER AT TIMES TNGT WITH STRATUS AND POSSIBLY FOG.

SW FLOW THRU THE TAF PERIOD. HIGHEST SPEEDS THIS AFTN INTO EARLY
EVE...ESPECIALLY INVOF KJFK WHERE SUSTAINED AROUND 20KT EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.LATE WED NGT...MVFR OR LOWER AT TIMES WITH SW FLOW.
.THU...MRNG MVFR OR LOWER. SCT TSTMS POSSIBLE INVOF A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT. SW FLOW DIMINISHING AND POSSIBLY BECOMING NW OR VRB.
.FRI...VFR WITH LGT NE WINDS VEERING THRU THE DAY.
.SAT...MRNG MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE. CHC SHWRS AND TSTMS IN THE
AFTN AND OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR OR LOWER. STRONG SLY FLOW.
.SUN...POSSIBLE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR. NE WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS SHOULD REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 5 FT OVER AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT...SO HAVE
CONTINUED THE SCA THERE.

ONCE AGAIN APPEARS THE SEA BREEZE WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING
GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT TO THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS AND TO NEW YORK
HARBOR AND THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND. HAVE ISSUED A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THOSE TWO ZONES FROM NOON UNTIL MIDNIGHT
AS WELL. ON THE SOUND AND EASTERN BAYS OF LONG ISLAND...GUSTS
SHOULD PEAK OUT AT 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH MAYBE SOME
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KT.

FOR THURSDAY FOR NOW IT APPEARS SEABREEZE SHOULD BE WEAKER...AND
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLIGHTLY MORE RELAXED...SO EXPECTING SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS.

HAVE ADJUSTED WAVEWATCH DOWN 1 FT TODAY-THURSDAY...AS IT HAS
GENERALLY BEEN OVER FORECASTING WAVE HEIGHTS AT THE BUOYS BY
ABOUT THAT AMOUNT.

THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF OFFSHORE WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND
A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT. THEN...MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON
THE OCEAN WATERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A
MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR BASIN AVERAGE OF AROUND 1/4 AN INCH OF
RAINFALL ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY/NE NJ/SW CT THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS...DOWN TO ZERO ELSEWHERE.

NOTING PRECIPITABLE WATERS FORECAST TO BE AROUND 1.75 INCHES AND
STORM MOTION FORECAST TO BE AROUND 10 KT...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SLOW MOVING STORMS THAT PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN ANY
STRONGER CONVECTION. THIS COULD LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING OF
URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

ON THURSDAY THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LESS THAN 1/4 OF AN INCH OF
BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL. HOWEVER...WITH STORM MOTION OF AROUND 10
KT AND PRECIPITABLE WATERS AROUND 1.25 INCHES...THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SLOW MOVING STORMS PRODUCING LOCALLY MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS COULD RESULT IN THE MINOR FLOODING OF
URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...ESPECIALLY IF IT OCCURS OVER AREAS
RECEIVING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED RAINFALL EVENT LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT
     FOR ANZ338-345.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/BC
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...MALOIT/BC
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/BC



000
FXUS61 KBOX 270759
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
359 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE THROUGH TOMORROW.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY...
WITH TODAY AND TOMORROW HAVING THE HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

4 AM UPDATE...

SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND REMAINS IN THE WARM...MOIST AIRMASS EARLY THIS
MORNING. TEMPS ARE STILL IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WITH A FEW SITES
STILL AT 70F AS OF 4AM! SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
MORNING ALLOWING FOR THE LOW LEVELS TO MOISTEN UP BRINGING IN
STRATUS AND FOG.

HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST MAINLY FOR VSBYS AND FOG POTENTIAL AS IT IS
NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED. IN FACT...ONLY THE
VINEYARD SHOWS VSBYS BELOW 5 SM. OTHERWISE THE BULK OF THE FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK.

TODAY...

WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR TODAY. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
GUST BETWEEN 20-30 KTS AS HIGH TEMPS WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID
80S.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY WORKS IT WAY EASTWARD ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. FEEL TODAY HAS THE BETTER POTENTIAL TO SEE A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND MODEST SOUTHERLY
FLOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CT AND WESTERN MA. ASIDE FROM THE ABUNDANT
MOISTURE...CAPE VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG WITH ABOUT
25 KTS OF SHEAR. PWAT VALUES WILL BE ABOUT 1.5 INCHES...COMBINED
WITH A DESCENT SOUTHERLY LLJ AND WARM CLOUD PROCESSES PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS...ANY THUNDERSTORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY
RAIN. HAVE CONTINUED ENHANCED WORDING TO THE FORECAST FOR HEAVY
RAIN. COULD SEE SOME STRONG WINDS GUSTS AS WELL...ESP ACROSS
FRANKLIN COUNTY.

SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP BY THE LATE AFTERNOON AND LINGER
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SPC HAS THE PIONEER VALLEY IN A SLIGHT RISK
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. AN ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUST CANNOT BE
RULED OUT...BUT OVERALL FEEL IS THAT STORMS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SEVERE LIMITS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE QUESTION FOR THIS EVENING IS HOW FAR EAST THE CONVECTION WILL
GET. BELIEVE THAT THE MARINE INFLUENCE AND PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL MOST LIKELY WEAKEN THE STORMS CONSIDERABLY AS THEY MOVE
NEAR THE CENTRAL HILL OF WORCESTER COUNTY. IN FACT BELIEVE PRECIP
WILL STRUGGLE AFTER 3/4Z.

AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTH COAST BY THE
EVENING HOURS LIMITING VISIBILITIES. DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...

MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
AREAS OF FOG ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST/CAPE AND ISLANDS.
SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE LOCALLY DENSE FOG.

POPS DO SLOWLY INCREASE TO LOW CHANCE FOR THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE REGION OVERNIGHT AS THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH REMAINS NEARBY AND
ELEVATED INSTABILITY COULD PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS.

TOMORROW...

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON
THURSDAY PUSHING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. 00Z GUIDANCE SHOWS
THE FRONT PUSHING THROUGH BY THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS WHICH COULD
BE A SOURCE OF LIFT FOR ANY CONVECTION. HOWEVER APPEARS THAT THE BETTER
DYNAMICS WILL BE NORTH OF THE REGION...IN MAINE AND NEW
HAMPSHIRE. STILL CANT RULE OUT A FEW SCT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AS
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A NARROW CORRIDOR OF HEATING WITH DESCENT SHEAR
BETWEEN 25-30 KTS AND MARGINAL MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

PWAT VALUES ARE STILL HIGH...AROUND 1.6 INCHES WHICH MAY YIELD TO
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITHIN ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

TO START OFF...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES KEEP OVERALL UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER 48...WITH RIDGING ALONG OR
JUST E OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND TROUGHING ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO
THE SOUTHWEST. MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL SLOW DEAMPLIFICATION
OF THE UPPER PATTERN GOING INTO THIS WEEKEND...WITH RIDGE AXIS
FLATTENING OUT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AS A SURFACE FRONT THAT TRIES TO
WORK ACROSS THE REGION WASHES OUT DURING FRIDAY. BERMUDA HIGH RE-
ESTABLISHES FOR EARLY THIS WEEKEND WHILE ANOTHER FRONT WORKS SE OUT
OF QUEBEC. THIS FRONT LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH TO WORK SLOWLY SE AS THE
WESTERN ATLC RIDGE SHIFTS S AND UPPER TROUGHING TAKES OVER ACROSS
THE NORTHERN STREAM. BIG QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER THE FRONT WILL
CLEAR OFF THE S COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK OR WILL IT STALL CLOSER TO OR
OVER SOUTHERN AREAS.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...
THOUGH DID LEAN TOWARD MORE TOWARD THE ENSEMBLES FROM THIS WEEKEND
ONWARD DUE TO TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT. FOR THE
LATTER TIMEFRAME...LEANED CLOSER TO THE SLOWER ECMWF AND ECENS
MEANS.

DETAILS...

THURSDAY...WILL SEE LEFTOVER SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS WESTERN AREAS
THU MORNING WITH PWATS ON ORDER OF AROUND 1.5 INCHES. THE FRONT
SHIFTS S TAKING THE HIGHER PWAT AIR WITH IT...SO EXPECT THE PRECIP
TO TEND TO WEAKEN THOUGH WILL LINGER WHERE MILDER TEMPS ARE THANKS
TO DIURNAL INFLUENCES. INSTABILITY ALSO SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND WEAKENS
SO EXPECT ANY THUNDERSTORMS TO TAPER OFF BY AROUND MIDDAY. BEST SHOT
FOR PRECIP WILL BE FROM THE MERRIMACK VALLEY SE ACROSS CENTRAL MA TO
THE MID AND LOWER CT VALLEY. CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW QUICK DOWNPOURS
THROUGH MIDDAY WITH THE HIGHER PWAT AIRMASS. WILL SEE AREAS OF
FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...DEVELOP ACROSS S COASTAL AREAS THU NIGHT INTO
FRI MORNING.

FRIDAY...MODELS STARTED TO SIGNAL DRIER AIR WORKING IN ON MONDAY...
BUT MOST OF THE MODEL SUITE HAS HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDING S OUT OF
QUEBEC SO EXPECT A DRY BUT MILD DAY. DEWPTS DROP A BIT...DOWN TO THE
50S...BUT WILL BEGIN TO RISE AGAIN FRI NIGHT. WILL SEE A LIGHT E-SE
WIND FLOW SO WILL BE COOLER ALONG THE COAST...HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
70S EXCEPT 65-70 ACROSS COASTAL AREAS...RANGING TO THE LOWER TO MID
80S ACROSS THE CT VALLEY.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REPOSITIONS OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD SO SW
WINDS KICK IN AGAIN BRINGING A RETURN TO MORE HUMID AIR. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT START TO APPROACH OUT OF GREAT LAKES AND WESTERN QUEBEC.
ALSO NOTING INCREASING INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...
WITH K INDICES RISING TO THE LOWER-MID 30S AND TQ VALUES IN THE
UPPER TEENS SO COULD SEE SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION WHICH COULD LAST
INTO SAT NIGHT. BEST LIFT MOVES CLOSER DURING LATE SAT/SAT NIGHT SO
WILL SEE SCT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. A PWAT SWATH OF 1.6 TO
1.75 INCHES PUSHES OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SO MAY SEE SOME HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS WITH ANY CONVECTION.  WILL SEE QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE
EARLY SATURDAY...SO TEMPS WILL REBOUND TO THE 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS
EXCEPT THE LOWER-MID 70S ALONG S COASTAL AREAS.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING...THEN
REACHES THE S COAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECT CHANCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. STILL SOME TIMING ISSUES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF
BUT A BIT BETTER FOR THIS TIMEFRAME. WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE
FRONT...EXPECT SCT PRECIP TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUN NIGHT.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...SOMEWHAT LOWER CONFIDENCE DUE TO TIMING AND
PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES WITH THE FRONT AND WHETHER IT STALLS NEAR THE
S COAST OR OFFSHORE. AT THIS POINT...KEPT CHANCE POPS ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH MIDDAY THEN SHOULD PUSH JUST OFFSHORE BUT
MAY LINGER ACROSS THE ISLANDS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY SUNDAY. MAY
SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS EARLY...THEN INSTABILITY WORKS OFFSHORE BUT
COULD STILL SEE SOME SHOWERS WHILE HIGH PRES MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND.

HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING FOR SOUTHERN AREAS INTO TUESDAY
AS FRONT LOOKS TO LINGER...THEN MAY TRY TO MAKE A RUN BACK NE AS THE
HIGH PUSHES OFF INTO THE GULF OF MAINE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

BEFORE 12Z...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. COULD SEE IFR CIGS AND VSBYS
ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE AND ISLANDS. OTHERWISE VFR AREA WIDE.

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR/MVFR WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
SOUTH COAST WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION IS VFR. WESTERN
SITES COULD DROP TO MVFR WITHIN ANY -SHRA/-TSRA THAT DEVELOPS.
EXPECT SW WINDS TO GUST UP TO 20-30 KT AT TIMES MAINLY ACROSS
RI/SE MA.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO IFR
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS AS MARITIME FOG AND
STRATUS ROLL IN.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE
REGION SWITCHING THE SOUTHERLY WINDS TO THE WEST DURING THE DAY.
IFR...FOG AND STRATUS IS POSSIBLE BEFORE FRONTAL PASSAGE ALONG SE
TAF SITES. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS/T-STORMS ALONG THE FRONT
DROPPING CONDITIONS TO MVFR. OTHERWISE VFR WILL PREVAIL.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. COULD SEE CONDITIONS DROP
TO MVFR WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORM TODAY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY...VFR. MAY SEE LOCAL MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS EARLY FRI MORNING
ALONG S COAST IN PATCHY FOG...THEN WILL LOWER AGAIN LATE FRI
NIGHT/SAT MORNING TO MVFR-IFR.

SATURDAY...PATCHY FOG EARLY SAT MORNING WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE. SCT SHRA/TSRA SAT THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH LOCAL MVFR-
IFR CONDITIONS. SW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KT MAINLY ALONG THE COAST
SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING.

SUNDAY...SCT SHOWERS TSTMS LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD END
SUN NIGHT. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

NEW SET OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE UP TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT.
EXPECT NEAR SHORE WATERS TO SEE GUSTS NEAR 25 KTS...JUST LIKE
YESTERDAY. OTHERWISE SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
INCREASING OUTER WATER SEAS TO 5FT.

IN ADDITION...AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ON THE
WATERS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...SUBSTANTIALLY REDUCING
VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY...EXPECT SW WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KT. SEAS BUILD TO
AROUND 5 FT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS TO THE OUTER WATERS E OF CAPE
COD...BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT THU NIGHT. VSBYS REDUCED IN
AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DENSE OFFSHORE BOTH THU AND FRI NIGHTS.

FRIDAY...LIGHT N-NE WINDS BECOME E DURING THE DAY...THEN SHIFT TO
S-SW FRI NIGHT. EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SW WINDS MAY BRIEFLY GUST TO 25 KT DURING SAT ON
THE EASTERN WATERS...OTHERWISE EXPECT GUSTS UP TO 20 KT SEAS BUILD
AGAIN TO AROUND 5 FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS...WHICH WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE LATE SUN OR SUN NIGHT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR ANZ230-236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ235-237-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN/EVT
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...DUNTEN/EVT
MARINE...DUNTEN/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 270759
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
359 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE THROUGH TOMORROW.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY...
WITH TODAY AND TOMORROW HAVING THE HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

4 AM UPDATE...

SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND REMAINS IN THE WARM...MOIST AIRMASS EARLY THIS
MORNING. TEMPS ARE STILL IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WITH A FEW SITES
STILL AT 70F AS OF 4AM! SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
MORNING ALLOWING FOR THE LOW LEVELS TO MOISTEN UP BRINGING IN
STRATUS AND FOG.

HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST MAINLY FOR VSBYS AND FOG POTENTIAL AS IT IS
NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED. IN FACT...ONLY THE
VINEYARD SHOWS VSBYS BELOW 5 SM. OTHERWISE THE BULK OF THE FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK.

TODAY...

WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR TODAY. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
GUST BETWEEN 20-30 KTS AS HIGH TEMPS WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID
80S.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY WORKS IT WAY EASTWARD ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. FEEL TODAY HAS THE BETTER POTENTIAL TO SEE A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND MODEST SOUTHERLY
FLOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CT AND WESTERN MA. ASIDE FROM THE ABUNDANT
MOISTURE...CAPE VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG WITH ABOUT
25 KTS OF SHEAR. PWAT VALUES WILL BE ABOUT 1.5 INCHES...COMBINED
WITH A DESCENT SOUTHERLY LLJ AND WARM CLOUD PROCESSES PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS...ANY THUNDERSTORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY
RAIN. HAVE CONTINUED ENHANCED WORDING TO THE FORECAST FOR HEAVY
RAIN. COULD SEE SOME STRONG WINDS GUSTS AS WELL...ESP ACROSS
FRANKLIN COUNTY.

SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP BY THE LATE AFTERNOON AND LINGER
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SPC HAS THE PIONEER VALLEY IN A SLIGHT RISK
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. AN ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUST CANNOT BE
RULED OUT...BUT OVERALL FEEL IS THAT STORMS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SEVERE LIMITS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE QUESTION FOR THIS EVENING IS HOW FAR EAST THE CONVECTION WILL
GET. BELIEVE THAT THE MARINE INFLUENCE AND PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL MOST LIKELY WEAKEN THE STORMS CONSIDERABLY AS THEY MOVE
NEAR THE CENTRAL HILL OF WORCESTER COUNTY. IN FACT BELIEVE PRECIP
WILL STRUGGLE AFTER 3/4Z.

AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTH COAST BY THE
EVENING HOURS LIMITING VISIBILITIES. DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...

MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
AREAS OF FOG ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST/CAPE AND ISLANDS.
SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE LOCALLY DENSE FOG.

POPS DO SLOWLY INCREASE TO LOW CHANCE FOR THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE REGION OVERNIGHT AS THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH REMAINS NEARBY AND
ELEVATED INSTABILITY COULD PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS.

TOMORROW...

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON
THURSDAY PUSHING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. 00Z GUIDANCE SHOWS
THE FRONT PUSHING THROUGH BY THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS WHICH COULD
BE A SOURCE OF LIFT FOR ANY CONVECTION. HOWEVER APPEARS THAT THE BETTER
DYNAMICS WILL BE NORTH OF THE REGION...IN MAINE AND NEW
HAMPSHIRE. STILL CANT RULE OUT A FEW SCT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AS
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A NARROW CORRIDOR OF HEATING WITH DESCENT SHEAR
BETWEEN 25-30 KTS AND MARGINAL MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

PWAT VALUES ARE STILL HIGH...AROUND 1.6 INCHES WHICH MAY YIELD TO
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITHIN ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

TO START OFF...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES KEEP OVERALL UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER 48...WITH RIDGING ALONG OR
JUST E OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND TROUGHING ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO
THE SOUTHWEST. MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL SLOW DEAMPLIFICATION
OF THE UPPER PATTERN GOING INTO THIS WEEKEND...WITH RIDGE AXIS
FLATTENING OUT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AS A SURFACE FRONT THAT TRIES TO
WORK ACROSS THE REGION WASHES OUT DURING FRIDAY. BERMUDA HIGH RE-
ESTABLISHES FOR EARLY THIS WEEKEND WHILE ANOTHER FRONT WORKS SE OUT
OF QUEBEC. THIS FRONT LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH TO WORK SLOWLY SE AS THE
WESTERN ATLC RIDGE SHIFTS S AND UPPER TROUGHING TAKES OVER ACROSS
THE NORTHERN STREAM. BIG QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER THE FRONT WILL
CLEAR OFF THE S COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK OR WILL IT STALL CLOSER TO OR
OVER SOUTHERN AREAS.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...
THOUGH DID LEAN TOWARD MORE TOWARD THE ENSEMBLES FROM THIS WEEKEND
ONWARD DUE TO TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT. FOR THE
LATTER TIMEFRAME...LEANED CLOSER TO THE SLOWER ECMWF AND ECENS
MEANS.

DETAILS...

THURSDAY...WILL SEE LEFTOVER SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS WESTERN AREAS
THU MORNING WITH PWATS ON ORDER OF AROUND 1.5 INCHES. THE FRONT
SHIFTS S TAKING THE HIGHER PWAT AIR WITH IT...SO EXPECT THE PRECIP
TO TEND TO WEAKEN THOUGH WILL LINGER WHERE MILDER TEMPS ARE THANKS
TO DIURNAL INFLUENCES. INSTABILITY ALSO SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND WEAKENS
SO EXPECT ANY THUNDERSTORMS TO TAPER OFF BY AROUND MIDDAY. BEST SHOT
FOR PRECIP WILL BE FROM THE MERRIMACK VALLEY SE ACROSS CENTRAL MA TO
THE MID AND LOWER CT VALLEY. CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW QUICK DOWNPOURS
THROUGH MIDDAY WITH THE HIGHER PWAT AIRMASS. WILL SEE AREAS OF
FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...DEVELOP ACROSS S COASTAL AREAS THU NIGHT INTO
FRI MORNING.

FRIDAY...MODELS STARTED TO SIGNAL DRIER AIR WORKING IN ON MONDAY...
BUT MOST OF THE MODEL SUITE HAS HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDING S OUT OF
QUEBEC SO EXPECT A DRY BUT MILD DAY. DEWPTS DROP A BIT...DOWN TO THE
50S...BUT WILL BEGIN TO RISE AGAIN FRI NIGHT. WILL SEE A LIGHT E-SE
WIND FLOW SO WILL BE COOLER ALONG THE COAST...HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
70S EXCEPT 65-70 ACROSS COASTAL AREAS...RANGING TO THE LOWER TO MID
80S ACROSS THE CT VALLEY.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REPOSITIONS OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD SO SW
WINDS KICK IN AGAIN BRINGING A RETURN TO MORE HUMID AIR. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT START TO APPROACH OUT OF GREAT LAKES AND WESTERN QUEBEC.
ALSO NOTING INCREASING INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...
WITH K INDICES RISING TO THE LOWER-MID 30S AND TQ VALUES IN THE
UPPER TEENS SO COULD SEE SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION WHICH COULD LAST
INTO SAT NIGHT. BEST LIFT MOVES CLOSER DURING LATE SAT/SAT NIGHT SO
WILL SEE SCT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. A PWAT SWATH OF 1.6 TO
1.75 INCHES PUSHES OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SO MAY SEE SOME HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS WITH ANY CONVECTION.  WILL SEE QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE
EARLY SATURDAY...SO TEMPS WILL REBOUND TO THE 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS
EXCEPT THE LOWER-MID 70S ALONG S COASTAL AREAS.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING...THEN
REACHES THE S COAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECT CHANCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. STILL SOME TIMING ISSUES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF
BUT A BIT BETTER FOR THIS TIMEFRAME. WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE
FRONT...EXPECT SCT PRECIP TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUN NIGHT.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...SOMEWHAT LOWER CONFIDENCE DUE TO TIMING AND
PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES WITH THE FRONT AND WHETHER IT STALLS NEAR THE
S COAST OR OFFSHORE. AT THIS POINT...KEPT CHANCE POPS ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH MIDDAY THEN SHOULD PUSH JUST OFFSHORE BUT
MAY LINGER ACROSS THE ISLANDS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY SUNDAY. MAY
SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS EARLY...THEN INSTABILITY WORKS OFFSHORE BUT
COULD STILL SEE SOME SHOWERS WHILE HIGH PRES MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND.

HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING FOR SOUTHERN AREAS INTO TUESDAY
AS FRONT LOOKS TO LINGER...THEN MAY TRY TO MAKE A RUN BACK NE AS THE
HIGH PUSHES OFF INTO THE GULF OF MAINE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

BEFORE 12Z...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. COULD SEE IFR CIGS AND VSBYS
ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE AND ISLANDS. OTHERWISE VFR AREA WIDE.

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR/MVFR WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
SOUTH COAST WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION IS VFR. WESTERN
SITES COULD DROP TO MVFR WITHIN ANY -SHRA/-TSRA THAT DEVELOPS.
EXPECT SW WINDS TO GUST UP TO 20-30 KT AT TIMES MAINLY ACROSS
RI/SE MA.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO IFR
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS AS MARITIME FOG AND
STRATUS ROLL IN.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE
REGION SWITCHING THE SOUTHERLY WINDS TO THE WEST DURING THE DAY.
IFR...FOG AND STRATUS IS POSSIBLE BEFORE FRONTAL PASSAGE ALONG SE
TAF SITES. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS/T-STORMS ALONG THE FRONT
DROPPING CONDITIONS TO MVFR. OTHERWISE VFR WILL PREVAIL.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. COULD SEE CONDITIONS DROP
TO MVFR WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORM TODAY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY...VFR. MAY SEE LOCAL MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS EARLY FRI MORNING
ALONG S COAST IN PATCHY FOG...THEN WILL LOWER AGAIN LATE FRI
NIGHT/SAT MORNING TO MVFR-IFR.

SATURDAY...PATCHY FOG EARLY SAT MORNING WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE. SCT SHRA/TSRA SAT THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH LOCAL MVFR-
IFR CONDITIONS. SW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KT MAINLY ALONG THE COAST
SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING.

SUNDAY...SCT SHOWERS TSTMS LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD END
SUN NIGHT. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

NEW SET OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE UP TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT.
EXPECT NEAR SHORE WATERS TO SEE GUSTS NEAR 25 KTS...JUST LIKE
YESTERDAY. OTHERWISE SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
INCREASING OUTER WATER SEAS TO 5FT.

IN ADDITION...AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ON THE
WATERS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...SUBSTANTIALLY REDUCING
VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY...EXPECT SW WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KT. SEAS BUILD TO
AROUND 5 FT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS TO THE OUTER WATERS E OF CAPE
COD...BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT THU NIGHT. VSBYS REDUCED IN
AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DENSE OFFSHORE BOTH THU AND FRI NIGHTS.

FRIDAY...LIGHT N-NE WINDS BECOME E DURING THE DAY...THEN SHIFT TO
S-SW FRI NIGHT. EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SW WINDS MAY BRIEFLY GUST TO 25 KT DURING SAT ON
THE EASTERN WATERS...OTHERWISE EXPECT GUSTS UP TO 20 KT SEAS BUILD
AGAIN TO AROUND 5 FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS...WHICH WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE LATE SUN OR SUN NIGHT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR ANZ230-236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ235-237-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN/EVT
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...DUNTEN/EVT
MARINE...DUNTEN/EVT



000
FXUS61 KOKX 270607
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
207 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS ANCHORED WELL OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH
THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND DISSIPATE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. A
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL THEN IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK. REMOVED POPS OVERNIGHT AS FORCING
LOOKS VERY WEAK.

FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF ORANGE COUNTY WHERE
DEWPOINTS SPIKED INTO THE 70S AFTER THE SHOWERS EXITED. WINDS ARE
CALM AND SHOULD REMAIN THIS WAY...SO ADDED FOG TO THE FORECAST UP
THERE THROUGH THE NIGHT. IT COULD BECOME LOCALLY DENSE AT TIMES.

PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TOWARDS MORNING. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE THAT FOG BECOMES LOCALLY DENSE NEAR THE COAST...BUT IT
REMAINS UNCERTAIN HOW WIDESPREAD THIS WOULD END UP BEING. THERE IS
A GREATER LIKELIHOOD FOR STRATUS TO DEVELOP WITH PERSISTENT
ONSHORE FLOW...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. SKY CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY UNTIL THEN.

LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION INCREASES ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE FURTHER OFFSHORE. THE DEVELOPMENT OF A PRE-
FRONTAL/THERMAL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A SOURCE FOR LIFT IN THE
AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CITY. CAPE VALUES IN THE
MODELS DIFFER IN THE AFTERNOON AND THIS IS DUE TO HOW MUCH HEATING
THEY FORECAST. THE NAM HAS MUCH HIGHER SURFACE BASED CAPE WITH
ITS WARMER SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN COMBINATION WITH DEW POINTS IN
THE MID 60S. FEEL CAPE VALUES MAY BE A BIT TOO HIGH IN THE
NAM...BUT IT HAS THE RIGHT IDEA WITH ITS WARMER TEMPERATURES
LEADING TO HIGHER AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY. ANY MORNING CLOUDS WILL
BREAK LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON TO ALLOW FOR ENOUGH
SUNSHINE TO REALIZE THIS HIGHER INSTABILITY.

SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND LINGER INTO
THE AFTERNOON WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND. SPC HAS THE INTERIOR OF NE
NJ AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. AN ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT
HERE...BUT FEEL STORMS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN ANY STORM WITH URBANIZED MINOR
FLOODING A POSSIBILITY. CHANCE POPS CONTINUE FOR MAINLY WEST OF
THE HUDSON RIVER.

THE QUESTION FOR WEDNESDAY EVENING IS HOW FAR EAST THE CONVECTION
GETS. THE MARINE INFLUENCE AND PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
MOST LIKELY WEAKEN THE STORMS CONSIDERABLY AS THEY MOVE NEAR THE
HUDSON RIVER. NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FORECAST IN THE
EVENING EAST OF THE HUDSON. POPS DO INCREASE TO LOW CHANCE FOR
EASTERN ZONES OVERNIGHT AS THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH REMAINS NEARBY
AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY COULD PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S
FROM NYC NORTH AND WEST AND MAINLY MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S ACROSS
SOUTHERN CT AND LONG ISLAND. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
60S.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS AT
ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL EXPAND
WESTWARD BACK INTO THE MS RIVER VALLEY AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY OVER THE
GREAT LAKES DAMPENS AND LIFTS TO THE NE THU. THIS WILL ALLOW THE
SUB TROPICAL RIDGE TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND...PUMPING IN WARM...HUMID AIR ACROSS THE REGION.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THU BEFORE
DISSIPATING OFFSHORE ON FRI. THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THU EVE...BUT DRY AIR LOOKS TO BE A LIMITING
FACTOR. HEIGHTS BUILD ALOFT FRI INTO SAT WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE
CAPPING THE AIRMASS. ANY CONVECTION WILL BE ISOLATED...DIURNAL IN
NATURE...AND LIKELY WELL INLAND.

FORECAST DILEMMA REMAINS THE TIMING OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN. THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS STILL REMAINS THE
FASTER...AND MORE AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION. HOWEVER...DEFERRED TO THE
SLOWER ECMWF WHICH HAS MAINTAINED THE BEST RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY.
THE ECMWF DOES NOT BRING THE FRONT THROUGH UNTIL SUN AFT AND THEN
KEEPS IT IN CLOSE PROXIMITY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED RAINFALL EVENT LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY WARM THROUGH SAT...THEN COOLS
DOWN SUN INTO MON BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TODAY...AND DISSIPATE
OVER THE AREA THU.

MAINLY VFR THIS MRNG...HOWEVER THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
POCKETS OF STRATUS AND BR WHICH COULD BRING MVFR. ANY MVFR BURNS
OFF BY 13-15Z EXCEPT KGON WHERE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT IT
COULD LINGER MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE DAY. OTHERWISE...AFTN TSTMS
LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AFT 18Z. THE
ACTIVITY MAY HOLD TOGETHER TO IMPACT AREAS ROUGHLY ALONG AND W OF
A KHPN-KEWR LINE.

MVFR OR LOWER AT TIMES TNGT WITH STRATUS AND POSSIBLY FOG.

SW FLOW THRU THE TAF PERIOD. HIGHEST SPEEDS THIS AFTN INTO EARLY
EVE...ESPECIALLY INVOF KJFK WHERE SUSTAINED AROUND 20KT EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.LATE WED NGT...MVFR OR LOWER AT TIMES WITH SW FLOW.
.THU...MRNG MVFR OR LOWER. SCT TSTMS POSSIBLE INVOF A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT. SW FLOW DIMINISHING AND POSSIBLY BECOMING NW OR VRB.
.FRI...VFR WITH LGT NE WINDS VEERING THRU THE DAY.
.SAT...MRNG MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE. CHC SHWRS AND TSTMS IN THE
AFTN AND OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR OR LOWER. STRONG SLY FLOW.
.SUN...POSSIBLE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR. NE WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
LOOKING AT OBSERVATIONS AROUND THE GREAT SOUTH BAY...FREQUENT WIND
GUSTS TO 25 KT HAVE COME TO AN END...SO WILL ALLOW THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND TO EXPIRE
AS SCHEDULED. OTHERWISE...THE SCA ON THE OCEAN WATERS CONTINUES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KT AT 44065 WILL
DECREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND THEN INCREASE AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH PROLONGED SOUTHERLY FLOW.
SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD TO 5 FT TONIGHT AND REMAIN NEAR 5 FT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

WINDS MAY ALSO APPROACH SCA LEVELS ON THE NY HARBOR AND SOUTH
SHORE BAYS AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF DENSE FOG TO FORM ON THE
WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW ON THIS AND FOR NOW HAVE CONTINUED TO FORECAST PATCHY FOG.

MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN WATERS POSSIBLE THU-SUN WITH A
MODERATE SLY FLOW. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF OFFSHORE WINDS
THU NIGHT BEHIND A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GENERALLY LESS THAN TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF BASIN AVERAGE
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER ANY STRONGER
CONVECTION THAT FORMS...ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS ANY TRAINING OF
STORMS...COULD LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AND/OR POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED RAINFALL EVENT LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/DW
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS/DW
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...DS/DW
HYDROLOGY...DS/DW



000
FXUS61 KOKX 270607
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
207 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS ANCHORED WELL OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH
THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND DISSIPATE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. A
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL THEN IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK. REMOVED POPS OVERNIGHT AS FORCING
LOOKS VERY WEAK.

FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF ORANGE COUNTY WHERE
DEWPOINTS SPIKED INTO THE 70S AFTER THE SHOWERS EXITED. WINDS ARE
CALM AND SHOULD REMAIN THIS WAY...SO ADDED FOG TO THE FORECAST UP
THERE THROUGH THE NIGHT. IT COULD BECOME LOCALLY DENSE AT TIMES.

PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TOWARDS MORNING. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE THAT FOG BECOMES LOCALLY DENSE NEAR THE COAST...BUT IT
REMAINS UNCERTAIN HOW WIDESPREAD THIS WOULD END UP BEING. THERE IS
A GREATER LIKELIHOOD FOR STRATUS TO DEVELOP WITH PERSISTENT
ONSHORE FLOW...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. SKY CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY UNTIL THEN.

LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION INCREASES ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE FURTHER OFFSHORE. THE DEVELOPMENT OF A PRE-
FRONTAL/THERMAL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A SOURCE FOR LIFT IN THE
AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CITY. CAPE VALUES IN THE
MODELS DIFFER IN THE AFTERNOON AND THIS IS DUE TO HOW MUCH HEATING
THEY FORECAST. THE NAM HAS MUCH HIGHER SURFACE BASED CAPE WITH
ITS WARMER SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN COMBINATION WITH DEW POINTS IN
THE MID 60S. FEEL CAPE VALUES MAY BE A BIT TOO HIGH IN THE
NAM...BUT IT HAS THE RIGHT IDEA WITH ITS WARMER TEMPERATURES
LEADING TO HIGHER AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY. ANY MORNING CLOUDS WILL
BREAK LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON TO ALLOW FOR ENOUGH
SUNSHINE TO REALIZE THIS HIGHER INSTABILITY.

SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND LINGER INTO
THE AFTERNOON WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND. SPC HAS THE INTERIOR OF NE
NJ AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. AN ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT
HERE...BUT FEEL STORMS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN ANY STORM WITH URBANIZED MINOR
FLOODING A POSSIBILITY. CHANCE POPS CONTINUE FOR MAINLY WEST OF
THE HUDSON RIVER.

THE QUESTION FOR WEDNESDAY EVENING IS HOW FAR EAST THE CONVECTION
GETS. THE MARINE INFLUENCE AND PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
MOST LIKELY WEAKEN THE STORMS CONSIDERABLY AS THEY MOVE NEAR THE
HUDSON RIVER. NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FORECAST IN THE
EVENING EAST OF THE HUDSON. POPS DO INCREASE TO LOW CHANCE FOR
EASTERN ZONES OVERNIGHT AS THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH REMAINS NEARBY
AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY COULD PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S
FROM NYC NORTH AND WEST AND MAINLY MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S ACROSS
SOUTHERN CT AND LONG ISLAND. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
60S.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS AT
ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL EXPAND
WESTWARD BACK INTO THE MS RIVER VALLEY AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY OVER THE
GREAT LAKES DAMPENS AND LIFTS TO THE NE THU. THIS WILL ALLOW THE
SUB TROPICAL RIDGE TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND...PUMPING IN WARM...HUMID AIR ACROSS THE REGION.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THU BEFORE
DISSIPATING OFFSHORE ON FRI. THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THU EVE...BUT DRY AIR LOOKS TO BE A LIMITING
FACTOR. HEIGHTS BUILD ALOFT FRI INTO SAT WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE
CAPPING THE AIRMASS. ANY CONVECTION WILL BE ISOLATED...DIURNAL IN
NATURE...AND LIKELY WELL INLAND.

FORECAST DILEMMA REMAINS THE TIMING OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN. THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS STILL REMAINS THE
FASTER...AND MORE AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION. HOWEVER...DEFERRED TO THE
SLOWER ECMWF WHICH HAS MAINTAINED THE BEST RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY.
THE ECMWF DOES NOT BRING THE FRONT THROUGH UNTIL SUN AFT AND THEN
KEEPS IT IN CLOSE PROXIMITY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED RAINFALL EVENT LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY WARM THROUGH SAT...THEN COOLS
DOWN SUN INTO MON BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TODAY...AND DISSIPATE
OVER THE AREA THU.

MAINLY VFR THIS MRNG...HOWEVER THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
POCKETS OF STRATUS AND BR WHICH COULD BRING MVFR. ANY MVFR BURNS
OFF BY 13-15Z EXCEPT KGON WHERE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT IT
COULD LINGER MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE DAY. OTHERWISE...AFTN TSTMS
LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AFT 18Z. THE
ACTIVITY MAY HOLD TOGETHER TO IMPACT AREAS ROUGHLY ALONG AND W OF
A KHPN-KEWR LINE.

MVFR OR LOWER AT TIMES TNGT WITH STRATUS AND POSSIBLY FOG.

SW FLOW THRU THE TAF PERIOD. HIGHEST SPEEDS THIS AFTN INTO EARLY
EVE...ESPECIALLY INVOF KJFK WHERE SUSTAINED AROUND 20KT EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.LATE WED NGT...MVFR OR LOWER AT TIMES WITH SW FLOW.
.THU...MRNG MVFR OR LOWER. SCT TSTMS POSSIBLE INVOF A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT. SW FLOW DIMINISHING AND POSSIBLY BECOMING NW OR VRB.
.FRI...VFR WITH LGT NE WINDS VEERING THRU THE DAY.
.SAT...MRNG MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE. CHC SHWRS AND TSTMS IN THE
AFTN AND OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR OR LOWER. STRONG SLY FLOW.
.SUN...POSSIBLE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR. NE WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
LOOKING AT OBSERVATIONS AROUND THE GREAT SOUTH BAY...FREQUENT WIND
GUSTS TO 25 KT HAVE COME TO AN END...SO WILL ALLOW THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND TO EXPIRE
AS SCHEDULED. OTHERWISE...THE SCA ON THE OCEAN WATERS CONTINUES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KT AT 44065 WILL
DECREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND THEN INCREASE AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH PROLONGED SOUTHERLY FLOW.
SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD TO 5 FT TONIGHT AND REMAIN NEAR 5 FT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

WINDS MAY ALSO APPROACH SCA LEVELS ON THE NY HARBOR AND SOUTH
SHORE BAYS AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF DENSE FOG TO FORM ON THE
WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW ON THIS AND FOR NOW HAVE CONTINUED TO FORECAST PATCHY FOG.

MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN WATERS POSSIBLE THU-SUN WITH A
MODERATE SLY FLOW. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF OFFSHORE WINDS
THU NIGHT BEHIND A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GENERALLY LESS THAN TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF BASIN AVERAGE
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER ANY STRONGER
CONVECTION THAT FORMS...ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS ANY TRAINING OF
STORMS...COULD LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AND/OR POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED RAINFALL EVENT LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/DW
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS/DW
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...DS/DW
HYDROLOGY...DS/DW



000
FXUS61 KOKX 270607
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
207 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS ANCHORED WELL OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH
THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND DISSIPATE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. A
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL THEN IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK. REMOVED POPS OVERNIGHT AS FORCING
LOOKS VERY WEAK.

FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF ORANGE COUNTY WHERE
DEWPOINTS SPIKED INTO THE 70S AFTER THE SHOWERS EXITED. WINDS ARE
CALM AND SHOULD REMAIN THIS WAY...SO ADDED FOG TO THE FORECAST UP
THERE THROUGH THE NIGHT. IT COULD BECOME LOCALLY DENSE AT TIMES.

PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TOWARDS MORNING. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE THAT FOG BECOMES LOCALLY DENSE NEAR THE COAST...BUT IT
REMAINS UNCERTAIN HOW WIDESPREAD THIS WOULD END UP BEING. THERE IS
A GREATER LIKELIHOOD FOR STRATUS TO DEVELOP WITH PERSISTENT
ONSHORE FLOW...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. SKY CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY UNTIL THEN.

LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION INCREASES ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE FURTHER OFFSHORE. THE DEVELOPMENT OF A PRE-
FRONTAL/THERMAL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A SOURCE FOR LIFT IN THE
AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CITY. CAPE VALUES IN THE
MODELS DIFFER IN THE AFTERNOON AND THIS IS DUE TO HOW MUCH HEATING
THEY FORECAST. THE NAM HAS MUCH HIGHER SURFACE BASED CAPE WITH
ITS WARMER SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN COMBINATION WITH DEW POINTS IN
THE MID 60S. FEEL CAPE VALUES MAY BE A BIT TOO HIGH IN THE
NAM...BUT IT HAS THE RIGHT IDEA WITH ITS WARMER TEMPERATURES
LEADING TO HIGHER AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY. ANY MORNING CLOUDS WILL
BREAK LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON TO ALLOW FOR ENOUGH
SUNSHINE TO REALIZE THIS HIGHER INSTABILITY.

SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND LINGER INTO
THE AFTERNOON WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND. SPC HAS THE INTERIOR OF NE
NJ AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. AN ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT
HERE...BUT FEEL STORMS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN ANY STORM WITH URBANIZED MINOR
FLOODING A POSSIBILITY. CHANCE POPS CONTINUE FOR MAINLY WEST OF
THE HUDSON RIVER.

THE QUESTION FOR WEDNESDAY EVENING IS HOW FAR EAST THE CONVECTION
GETS. THE MARINE INFLUENCE AND PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
MOST LIKELY WEAKEN THE STORMS CONSIDERABLY AS THEY MOVE NEAR THE
HUDSON RIVER. NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FORECAST IN THE
EVENING EAST OF THE HUDSON. POPS DO INCREASE TO LOW CHANCE FOR
EASTERN ZONES OVERNIGHT AS THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH REMAINS NEARBY
AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY COULD PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S
FROM NYC NORTH AND WEST AND MAINLY MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S ACROSS
SOUTHERN CT AND LONG ISLAND. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
60S.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS AT
ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL EXPAND
WESTWARD BACK INTO THE MS RIVER VALLEY AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY OVER THE
GREAT LAKES DAMPENS AND LIFTS TO THE NE THU. THIS WILL ALLOW THE
SUB TROPICAL RIDGE TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND...PUMPING IN WARM...HUMID AIR ACROSS THE REGION.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THU BEFORE
DISSIPATING OFFSHORE ON FRI. THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THU EVE...BUT DRY AIR LOOKS TO BE A LIMITING
FACTOR. HEIGHTS BUILD ALOFT FRI INTO SAT WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE
CAPPING THE AIRMASS. ANY CONVECTION WILL BE ISOLATED...DIURNAL IN
NATURE...AND LIKELY WELL INLAND.

FORECAST DILEMMA REMAINS THE TIMING OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN. THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS STILL REMAINS THE
FASTER...AND MORE AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION. HOWEVER...DEFERRED TO THE
SLOWER ECMWF WHICH HAS MAINTAINED THE BEST RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY.
THE ECMWF DOES NOT BRING THE FRONT THROUGH UNTIL SUN AFT AND THEN
KEEPS IT IN CLOSE PROXIMITY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED RAINFALL EVENT LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY WARM THROUGH SAT...THEN COOLS
DOWN SUN INTO MON BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TODAY...AND DISSIPATE
OVER THE AREA THU.

MAINLY VFR THIS MRNG...HOWEVER THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
POCKETS OF STRATUS AND BR WHICH COULD BRING MVFR. ANY MVFR BURNS
OFF BY 13-15Z EXCEPT KGON WHERE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT IT
COULD LINGER MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE DAY. OTHERWISE...AFTN TSTMS
LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AFT 18Z. THE
ACTIVITY MAY HOLD TOGETHER TO IMPACT AREAS ROUGHLY ALONG AND W OF
A KHPN-KEWR LINE.

MVFR OR LOWER AT TIMES TNGT WITH STRATUS AND POSSIBLY FOG.

SW FLOW THRU THE TAF PERIOD. HIGHEST SPEEDS THIS AFTN INTO EARLY
EVE...ESPECIALLY INVOF KJFK WHERE SUSTAINED AROUND 20KT EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.LATE WED NGT...MVFR OR LOWER AT TIMES WITH SW FLOW.
.THU...MRNG MVFR OR LOWER. SCT TSTMS POSSIBLE INVOF A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT. SW FLOW DIMINISHING AND POSSIBLY BECOMING NW OR VRB.
.FRI...VFR WITH LGT NE WINDS VEERING THRU THE DAY.
.SAT...MRNG MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE. CHC SHWRS AND TSTMS IN THE
AFTN AND OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR OR LOWER. STRONG SLY FLOW.
.SUN...POSSIBLE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR. NE WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
LOOKING AT OBSERVATIONS AROUND THE GREAT SOUTH BAY...FREQUENT WIND
GUSTS TO 25 KT HAVE COME TO AN END...SO WILL ALLOW THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND TO EXPIRE
AS SCHEDULED. OTHERWISE...THE SCA ON THE OCEAN WATERS CONTINUES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KT AT 44065 WILL
DECREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND THEN INCREASE AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH PROLONGED SOUTHERLY FLOW.
SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD TO 5 FT TONIGHT AND REMAIN NEAR 5 FT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

WINDS MAY ALSO APPROACH SCA LEVELS ON THE NY HARBOR AND SOUTH
SHORE BAYS AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF DENSE FOG TO FORM ON THE
WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW ON THIS AND FOR NOW HAVE CONTINUED TO FORECAST PATCHY FOG.

MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN WATERS POSSIBLE THU-SUN WITH A
MODERATE SLY FLOW. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF OFFSHORE WINDS
THU NIGHT BEHIND A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GENERALLY LESS THAN TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF BASIN AVERAGE
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER ANY STRONGER
CONVECTION THAT FORMS...ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS ANY TRAINING OF
STORMS...COULD LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AND/OR POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED RAINFALL EVENT LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/DW
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS/DW
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...DS/DW
HYDROLOGY...DS/DW



000
FXUS61 KOKX 270607
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
207 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS ANCHORED WELL OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH
THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND DISSIPATE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. A
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL THEN IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK. REMOVED POPS OVERNIGHT AS FORCING
LOOKS VERY WEAK.

FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF ORANGE COUNTY WHERE
DEWPOINTS SPIKED INTO THE 70S AFTER THE SHOWERS EXITED. WINDS ARE
CALM AND SHOULD REMAIN THIS WAY...SO ADDED FOG TO THE FORECAST UP
THERE THROUGH THE NIGHT. IT COULD BECOME LOCALLY DENSE AT TIMES.

PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TOWARDS MORNING. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE THAT FOG BECOMES LOCALLY DENSE NEAR THE COAST...BUT IT
REMAINS UNCERTAIN HOW WIDESPREAD THIS WOULD END UP BEING. THERE IS
A GREATER LIKELIHOOD FOR STRATUS TO DEVELOP WITH PERSISTENT
ONSHORE FLOW...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. SKY CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY UNTIL THEN.

LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION INCREASES ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE FURTHER OFFSHORE. THE DEVELOPMENT OF A PRE-
FRONTAL/THERMAL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A SOURCE FOR LIFT IN THE
AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CITY. CAPE VALUES IN THE
MODELS DIFFER IN THE AFTERNOON AND THIS IS DUE TO HOW MUCH HEATING
THEY FORECAST. THE NAM HAS MUCH HIGHER SURFACE BASED CAPE WITH
ITS WARMER SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN COMBINATION WITH DEW POINTS IN
THE MID 60S. FEEL CAPE VALUES MAY BE A BIT TOO HIGH IN THE
NAM...BUT IT HAS THE RIGHT IDEA WITH ITS WARMER TEMPERATURES
LEADING TO HIGHER AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY. ANY MORNING CLOUDS WILL
BREAK LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON TO ALLOW FOR ENOUGH
SUNSHINE TO REALIZE THIS HIGHER INSTABILITY.

SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND LINGER INTO
THE AFTERNOON WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND. SPC HAS THE INTERIOR OF NE
NJ AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. AN ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT
HERE...BUT FEEL STORMS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN ANY STORM WITH URBANIZED MINOR
FLOODING A POSSIBILITY. CHANCE POPS CONTINUE FOR MAINLY WEST OF
THE HUDSON RIVER.

THE QUESTION FOR WEDNESDAY EVENING IS HOW FAR EAST THE CONVECTION
GETS. THE MARINE INFLUENCE AND PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
MOST LIKELY WEAKEN THE STORMS CONSIDERABLY AS THEY MOVE NEAR THE
HUDSON RIVER. NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FORECAST IN THE
EVENING EAST OF THE HUDSON. POPS DO INCREASE TO LOW CHANCE FOR
EASTERN ZONES OVERNIGHT AS THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH REMAINS NEARBY
AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY COULD PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S
FROM NYC NORTH AND WEST AND MAINLY MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S ACROSS
SOUTHERN CT AND LONG ISLAND. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
60S.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS AT
ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL EXPAND
WESTWARD BACK INTO THE MS RIVER VALLEY AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY OVER THE
GREAT LAKES DAMPENS AND LIFTS TO THE NE THU. THIS WILL ALLOW THE
SUB TROPICAL RIDGE TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND...PUMPING IN WARM...HUMID AIR ACROSS THE REGION.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THU BEFORE
DISSIPATING OFFSHORE ON FRI. THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THU EVE...BUT DRY AIR LOOKS TO BE A LIMITING
FACTOR. HEIGHTS BUILD ALOFT FRI INTO SAT WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE
CAPPING THE AIRMASS. ANY CONVECTION WILL BE ISOLATED...DIURNAL IN
NATURE...AND LIKELY WELL INLAND.

FORECAST DILEMMA REMAINS THE TIMING OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN. THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS STILL REMAINS THE
FASTER...AND MORE AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION. HOWEVER...DEFERRED TO THE
SLOWER ECMWF WHICH HAS MAINTAINED THE BEST RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY.
THE ECMWF DOES NOT BRING THE FRONT THROUGH UNTIL SUN AFT AND THEN
KEEPS IT IN CLOSE PROXIMITY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED RAINFALL EVENT LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY WARM THROUGH SAT...THEN COOLS
DOWN SUN INTO MON BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TODAY...AND DISSIPATE
OVER THE AREA THU.

MAINLY VFR THIS MRNG...HOWEVER THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
POCKETS OF STRATUS AND BR WHICH COULD BRING MVFR. ANY MVFR BURNS
OFF BY 13-15Z EXCEPT KGON WHERE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT IT
COULD LINGER MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE DAY. OTHERWISE...AFTN TSTMS
LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AFT 18Z. THE
ACTIVITY MAY HOLD TOGETHER TO IMPACT AREAS ROUGHLY ALONG AND W OF
A KHPN-KEWR LINE.

MVFR OR LOWER AT TIMES TNGT WITH STRATUS AND POSSIBLY FOG.

SW FLOW THRU THE TAF PERIOD. HIGHEST SPEEDS THIS AFTN INTO EARLY
EVE...ESPECIALLY INVOF KJFK WHERE SUSTAINED AROUND 20KT EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.LATE WED NGT...MVFR OR LOWER AT TIMES WITH SW FLOW.
.THU...MRNG MVFR OR LOWER. SCT TSTMS POSSIBLE INVOF A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT. SW FLOW DIMINISHING AND POSSIBLY BECOMING NW OR VRB.
.FRI...VFR WITH LGT NE WINDS VEERING THRU THE DAY.
.SAT...MRNG MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE. CHC SHWRS AND TSTMS IN THE
AFTN AND OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR OR LOWER. STRONG SLY FLOW.
.SUN...POSSIBLE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR. NE WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
LOOKING AT OBSERVATIONS AROUND THE GREAT SOUTH BAY...FREQUENT WIND
GUSTS TO 25 KT HAVE COME TO AN END...SO WILL ALLOW THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND TO EXPIRE
AS SCHEDULED. OTHERWISE...THE SCA ON THE OCEAN WATERS CONTINUES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KT AT 44065 WILL
DECREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND THEN INCREASE AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH PROLONGED SOUTHERLY FLOW.
SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD TO 5 FT TONIGHT AND REMAIN NEAR 5 FT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

WINDS MAY ALSO APPROACH SCA LEVELS ON THE NY HARBOR AND SOUTH
SHORE BAYS AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF DENSE FOG TO FORM ON THE
WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW ON THIS AND FOR NOW HAVE CONTINUED TO FORECAST PATCHY FOG.

MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN WATERS POSSIBLE THU-SUN WITH A
MODERATE SLY FLOW. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF OFFSHORE WINDS
THU NIGHT BEHIND A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GENERALLY LESS THAN TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF BASIN AVERAGE
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER ANY STRONGER
CONVECTION THAT FORMS...ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS ANY TRAINING OF
STORMS...COULD LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AND/OR POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED RAINFALL EVENT LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/DW
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS/DW
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...DS/DW
HYDROLOGY...DS/DW



000
FXUS61 KOKX 270607
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
207 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS ANCHORED WELL OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH
THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND DISSIPATE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. A
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL THEN IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK. REMOVED POPS OVERNIGHT AS FORCING
LOOKS VERY WEAK.

FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF ORANGE COUNTY WHERE
DEWPOINTS SPIKED INTO THE 70S AFTER THE SHOWERS EXITED. WINDS ARE
CALM AND SHOULD REMAIN THIS WAY...SO ADDED FOG TO THE FORECAST UP
THERE THROUGH THE NIGHT. IT COULD BECOME LOCALLY DENSE AT TIMES.

PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TOWARDS MORNING. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE THAT FOG BECOMES LOCALLY DENSE NEAR THE COAST...BUT IT
REMAINS UNCERTAIN HOW WIDESPREAD THIS WOULD END UP BEING. THERE IS
A GREATER LIKELIHOOD FOR STRATUS TO DEVELOP WITH PERSISTENT
ONSHORE FLOW...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. SKY CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY UNTIL THEN.

LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION INCREASES ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE FURTHER OFFSHORE. THE DEVELOPMENT OF A PRE-
FRONTAL/THERMAL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A SOURCE FOR LIFT IN THE
AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CITY. CAPE VALUES IN THE
MODELS DIFFER IN THE AFTERNOON AND THIS IS DUE TO HOW MUCH HEATING
THEY FORECAST. THE NAM HAS MUCH HIGHER SURFACE BASED CAPE WITH
ITS WARMER SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN COMBINATION WITH DEW POINTS IN
THE MID 60S. FEEL CAPE VALUES MAY BE A BIT TOO HIGH IN THE
NAM...BUT IT HAS THE RIGHT IDEA WITH ITS WARMER TEMPERATURES
LEADING TO HIGHER AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY. ANY MORNING CLOUDS WILL
BREAK LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON TO ALLOW FOR ENOUGH
SUNSHINE TO REALIZE THIS HIGHER INSTABILITY.

SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND LINGER INTO
THE AFTERNOON WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND. SPC HAS THE INTERIOR OF NE
NJ AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. AN ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT
HERE...BUT FEEL STORMS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN ANY STORM WITH URBANIZED MINOR
FLOODING A POSSIBILITY. CHANCE POPS CONTINUE FOR MAINLY WEST OF
THE HUDSON RIVER.

THE QUESTION FOR WEDNESDAY EVENING IS HOW FAR EAST THE CONVECTION
GETS. THE MARINE INFLUENCE AND PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
MOST LIKELY WEAKEN THE STORMS CONSIDERABLY AS THEY MOVE NEAR THE
HUDSON RIVER. NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FORECAST IN THE
EVENING EAST OF THE HUDSON. POPS DO INCREASE TO LOW CHANCE FOR
EASTERN ZONES OVERNIGHT AS THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH REMAINS NEARBY
AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY COULD PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S
FROM NYC NORTH AND WEST AND MAINLY MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S ACROSS
SOUTHERN CT AND LONG ISLAND. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
60S.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS AT
ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL EXPAND
WESTWARD BACK INTO THE MS RIVER VALLEY AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY OVER THE
GREAT LAKES DAMPENS AND LIFTS TO THE NE THU. THIS WILL ALLOW THE
SUB TROPICAL RIDGE TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND...PUMPING IN WARM...HUMID AIR ACROSS THE REGION.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THU BEFORE
DISSIPATING OFFSHORE ON FRI. THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THU EVE...BUT DRY AIR LOOKS TO BE A LIMITING
FACTOR. HEIGHTS BUILD ALOFT FRI INTO SAT WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE
CAPPING THE AIRMASS. ANY CONVECTION WILL BE ISOLATED...DIURNAL IN
NATURE...AND LIKELY WELL INLAND.

FORECAST DILEMMA REMAINS THE TIMING OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN. THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS STILL REMAINS THE
FASTER...AND MORE AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION. HOWEVER...DEFERRED TO THE
SLOWER ECMWF WHICH HAS MAINTAINED THE BEST RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY.
THE ECMWF DOES NOT BRING THE FRONT THROUGH UNTIL SUN AFT AND THEN
KEEPS IT IN CLOSE PROXIMITY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED RAINFALL EVENT LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY WARM THROUGH SAT...THEN COOLS
DOWN SUN INTO MON BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TODAY...AND DISSIPATE
OVER THE AREA THU.

MAINLY VFR THIS MRNG...HOWEVER THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
POCKETS OF STRATUS AND BR WHICH COULD BRING MVFR. ANY MVFR BURNS
OFF BY 13-15Z EXCEPT KGON WHERE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT IT
COULD LINGER MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE DAY. OTHERWISE...AFTN TSTMS
LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AFT 18Z. THE
ACTIVITY MAY HOLD TOGETHER TO IMPACT AREAS ROUGHLY ALONG AND W OF
A KHPN-KEWR LINE.

MVFR OR LOWER AT TIMES TNGT WITH STRATUS AND POSSIBLY FOG.

SW FLOW THRU THE TAF PERIOD. HIGHEST SPEEDS THIS AFTN INTO EARLY
EVE...ESPECIALLY INVOF KJFK WHERE SUSTAINED AROUND 20KT EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.LATE WED NGT...MVFR OR LOWER AT TIMES WITH SW FLOW.
.THU...MRNG MVFR OR LOWER. SCT TSTMS POSSIBLE INVOF A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT. SW FLOW DIMINISHING AND POSSIBLY BECOMING NW OR VRB.
.FRI...VFR WITH LGT NE WINDS VEERING THRU THE DAY.
.SAT...MRNG MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE. CHC SHWRS AND TSTMS IN THE
AFTN AND OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR OR LOWER. STRONG SLY FLOW.
.SUN...POSSIBLE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR. NE WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
LOOKING AT OBSERVATIONS AROUND THE GREAT SOUTH BAY...FREQUENT WIND
GUSTS TO 25 KT HAVE COME TO AN END...SO WILL ALLOW THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND TO EXPIRE
AS SCHEDULED. OTHERWISE...THE SCA ON THE OCEAN WATERS CONTINUES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KT AT 44065 WILL
DECREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND THEN INCREASE AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH PROLONGED SOUTHERLY FLOW.
SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD TO 5 FT TONIGHT AND REMAIN NEAR 5 FT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

WINDS MAY ALSO APPROACH SCA LEVELS ON THE NY HARBOR AND SOUTH
SHORE BAYS AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF DENSE FOG TO FORM ON THE
WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW ON THIS AND FOR NOW HAVE CONTINUED TO FORECAST PATCHY FOG.

MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN WATERS POSSIBLE THU-SUN WITH A
MODERATE SLY FLOW. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF OFFSHORE WINDS
THU NIGHT BEHIND A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GENERALLY LESS THAN TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF BASIN AVERAGE
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER ANY STRONGER
CONVECTION THAT FORMS...ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS ANY TRAINING OF
STORMS...COULD LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AND/OR POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED RAINFALL EVENT LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/DW
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS/DW
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...DS/DW
HYDROLOGY...DS/DW



000
FXUS61 KALY 270552
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
152 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL FUNNEL WARM
AND HUMID AIR ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TODAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
AND A SURFACE TROUGH MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.  A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH ON THURSDAY WITH A BRIEF BREAK WITH DRY WEATHER FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 121 AM EDT...A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IS OVER THE
FCST AREA THIS MORNING WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S TO M70S. VARIABLY
CLOUDINESS CONTINUES AS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM IN
FROM THE W/SW ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTION OVER ERN OH AND WRN
PA. THE SHORT-WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPSTREAM CONVECTION...AND
ITS ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY
SEVERE CONVECTION LATER TODAY /MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON/. WITH THIS
UPDATE HAVE INCREASED TEMPS A FEW DEGS IN THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL
REGION WITH THE CLOUDS AND SRLY SFC FLOW PERSISTING. ALSO BACKED
THE POPS OFF LATER TONIGHT BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR LAYER COLUMN
MAX REF TRENDS. AN ISOLD POP-UP SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NRN
TIER...SRN DACKS...LAKE GEORGE REGION....SRN VT. ONE OCCURRED
AROUND AN HOUR AGO. THE POPS START TO INCREASE AGAIN IN THE LATER
MORNING AS THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC
TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACH FROM THE W/SW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR MOST OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED
MOST OF OUR REGION WITHIN THE SLIGHT RISK CATEGORY ON WEDNESDAY.
THE COMBINATION OF A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE WITH PWATS CLIMBING IN
EXCESS OF 1.75 INCHES...SURFACE DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S...SOME
GRADUAL HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS FOR
ENHANCING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO INTERACT WITH INCREASING
BUOYANCY AS SBCAPES CLIMB TOWARD 2K J/KG...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL IS ON THE INCREASE. A DEPARTING UPPER JET WITH ENTRANCE
REGION DYNAMICS AND SHEAR PROFILES INCREASING TO AROUND 30KTS
SHOULD RESULT IN SOME ORGANIZATION. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW
MUCH INSOLATION WE WILL RECEIVE AS THE NCEP MODEL SUITE DOES
SUGGEST AMPLE MOISTURE...ALTHOUGH...MODELS DO TEND TO
OVERESTIMATE. SO WE WILL ADD SOME ENHANCED WORDING TO THE
FORECAST/GRIDS AT THIS TIME. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...MOS GUIDANCE IS
WARMER ON THE MET MOS THAN THE MAV MOS...WE WILL FAVOR THE WARMER
SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

THE FRONTAL AXIS IS PROGGED TO BE OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING
THE EVENING WITH A DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE
CONVECTION AT THAT TIME. HOWEVER...THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND
MAIN UPPER TROUGH HAS YET TO APPROACH SO WE WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS
IN THE GRIDS OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY. IN
FACT...TRENDS IN THE 12Z GUIDANCE ARE A LITTLE FASTER WITH THESE
FEATURES WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. AS FOR THURSDAY HIGHS...AN ENSEMBLE
APPROACH OF THE H850 THERMAL FIELDS SUGGEST COLD ADVECTION WILL BE
OCCURRING THROUGH THE DAY WITH LESS THAN 10C FOR THE DACKS. WE
WILL THEREFORE KEEP TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 65-70F FOR THESE AREAS
AND KEEP 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN MAGNITUDES AS
GUSTS WELL INTO THE 20KTS ARE EXPECTED.

SUBSIDENCE INCREASES QUICKLY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH RISING SURFACE
PRESSURES AND A MUCH DRIER ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN ADVECTING INTO THE
REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE CLEARING SKIES...DIMINISHING WINDS AND
A MORE COMFORTABLE NIGHT AS LOWS DIP BACK INTO THE 50S FOR MOST OF
THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRI-SAT SHOULD TREND BACK TO NEAR...OR
POSSIBLY EVEN A BIT BELOW NORMAL BY SUN-TUE...AS THE EAST COAST
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEAMPLIFIES WITH THE APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
FROM SOUTHERN CANADA. AS IT DEAMPLIFIES...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION SOMETIME LATE SAT OR EARLY SUN. THIS SHOULD BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. DEPENDING ON ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE INCOMING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES/SE CANADA...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE COLD
FRONT SLOWS DOWN AND/OR A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG IT AND TRACKS SOUTH OF
THE REGION. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...SHOWERS OR EVEN A PERIOD OF STEADY
RAIN COULD LINGER IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR SUN INTO EARLY
MON...ESP ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.

SO...INITIALLY EXPECT DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY AS UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE ONCE AGAIN. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE
MODERATE...SO DESPITE MAX TEMPS REACHING THE MID/UPPER 80S IN
PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...APPARENT TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY
REMAIN BELOW 90. FRI NT/SAT AM SHOULD REMAIN DRY...BUT WARM...WITH
MIN TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 60S FOR MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND 55-60 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

FOR SAT-MON...THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT SHOULD APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATER SAT...AND SLOWLY PRESS SOUTH AND EAST SAT NT INTO
EARLY SUN. WILL INDICATE HIGH CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS FOR
SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR SAT AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...GRADUALLY TAPERING
DOWNWARD FROM NW TO SE ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST THE FRONT REACHES...AND WHETHER A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO
LOW CHC FOR MOST CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS INTO MON. MAX TEMPS
SHOULD BE RATHER WARM SAT...WITH TEMPS REACHING 85-90 IN VALLEYS AND
LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. DEWPOINTS SHOULD RISE INTO
THE LOWER 60S...SO APPARENT TEMPS SHOULD BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
ACTUAL HIGH TEMPS OF 85-90. SAT NT/SUN AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
50S TO LOWER 60S...THEN EXPECT COOLER MAX TEMPS FOR SUN INTO
MON...WITH MAXES MAINLY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S SUN...AND MAINLY 60S
FOR MON. SUN NT/MON AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

MON NT-TUE...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACHES. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO LOW
CHC POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. MON
NT/TUE AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S...WITH TUE
MAX TEMPS REACHING 70-75 FOR MOST VALLEYS...AND 65-70 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL MAINTAIN A WARM
AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF TAF
SITES THROUGH 18Z ON WEDNESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE A PERIOD OF
FOG AND STRATUS AT KPSF BETWEEN 08Z AND 13Z EARLY THIS MORNING.
AFTER 18Z...EXPECT A BAND OF AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH IN THE
FORECAST AFTER 18Z AT ALL THE TAF SITES...AND A PROB30 GROUP FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS (WIND
GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH) BETWEEN 18Z AND 22Z AT KGFL/KALB/KPOU...AND
19Z TO 23Z AT KPSF.

WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY AT 5-10 KT AT KALB...AND LIGHT AND
VARIABLE ELSEWHERE THROUGH A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. AFTER 13Z
WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST TO
8-12 KT...WITH GUSTS OF 15-20 KT BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.


OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS IN THE 50S.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...MAINLY ON WEDNESDAY.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED MODERATE
DROUGHT AT THIS TIME.

WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE BETTER AND MORE
WIDESPREAD CHANCES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INT0 THE EVENING.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.75+ INCHES ARE EXPECTED SO STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...KL/WASULA
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM



000
FXUS61 KALY 270552
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
152 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL FUNNEL WARM
AND HUMID AIR ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TODAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
AND A SURFACE TROUGH MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.  A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH ON THURSDAY WITH A BRIEF BREAK WITH DRY WEATHER FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 121 AM EDT...A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IS OVER THE
FCST AREA THIS MORNING WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S TO M70S. VARIABLY
CLOUDINESS CONTINUES AS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM IN
FROM THE W/SW ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTION OVER ERN OH AND WRN
PA. THE SHORT-WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPSTREAM CONVECTION...AND
ITS ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY
SEVERE CONVECTION LATER TODAY /MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON/. WITH THIS
UPDATE HAVE INCREASED TEMPS A FEW DEGS IN THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL
REGION WITH THE CLOUDS AND SRLY SFC FLOW PERSISTING. ALSO BACKED
THE POPS OFF LATER TONIGHT BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR LAYER COLUMN
MAX REF TRENDS. AN ISOLD POP-UP SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NRN
TIER...SRN DACKS...LAKE GEORGE REGION....SRN VT. ONE OCCURRED
AROUND AN HOUR AGO. THE POPS START TO INCREASE AGAIN IN THE LATER
MORNING AS THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC
TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACH FROM THE W/SW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR MOST OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED
MOST OF OUR REGION WITHIN THE SLIGHT RISK CATEGORY ON WEDNESDAY.
THE COMBINATION OF A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE WITH PWATS CLIMBING IN
EXCESS OF 1.75 INCHES...SURFACE DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S...SOME
GRADUAL HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS FOR
ENHANCING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO INTERACT WITH INCREASING
BUOYANCY AS SBCAPES CLIMB TOWARD 2K J/KG...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL IS ON THE INCREASE. A DEPARTING UPPER JET WITH ENTRANCE
REGION DYNAMICS AND SHEAR PROFILES INCREASING TO AROUND 30KTS
SHOULD RESULT IN SOME ORGANIZATION. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW
MUCH INSOLATION WE WILL RECEIVE AS THE NCEP MODEL SUITE DOES
SUGGEST AMPLE MOISTURE...ALTHOUGH...MODELS DO TEND TO
OVERESTIMATE. SO WE WILL ADD SOME ENHANCED WORDING TO THE
FORECAST/GRIDS AT THIS TIME. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...MOS GUIDANCE IS
WARMER ON THE MET MOS THAN THE MAV MOS...WE WILL FAVOR THE WARMER
SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

THE FRONTAL AXIS IS PROGGED TO BE OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING
THE EVENING WITH A DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE
CONVECTION AT THAT TIME. HOWEVER...THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND
MAIN UPPER TROUGH HAS YET TO APPROACH SO WE WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS
IN THE GRIDS OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY. IN
FACT...TRENDS IN THE 12Z GUIDANCE ARE A LITTLE FASTER WITH THESE
FEATURES WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. AS FOR THURSDAY HIGHS...AN ENSEMBLE
APPROACH OF THE H850 THERMAL FIELDS SUGGEST COLD ADVECTION WILL BE
OCCURRING THROUGH THE DAY WITH LESS THAN 10C FOR THE DACKS. WE
WILL THEREFORE KEEP TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 65-70F FOR THESE AREAS
AND KEEP 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN MAGNITUDES AS
GUSTS WELL INTO THE 20KTS ARE EXPECTED.

SUBSIDENCE INCREASES QUICKLY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH RISING SURFACE
PRESSURES AND A MUCH DRIER ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN ADVECTING INTO THE
REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE CLEARING SKIES...DIMINISHING WINDS AND
A MORE COMFORTABLE NIGHT AS LOWS DIP BACK INTO THE 50S FOR MOST OF
THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRI-SAT SHOULD TREND BACK TO NEAR...OR
POSSIBLY EVEN A BIT BELOW NORMAL BY SUN-TUE...AS THE EAST COAST
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEAMPLIFIES WITH THE APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
FROM SOUTHERN CANADA. AS IT DEAMPLIFIES...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION SOMETIME LATE SAT OR EARLY SUN. THIS SHOULD BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. DEPENDING ON ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE INCOMING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES/SE CANADA...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE COLD
FRONT SLOWS DOWN AND/OR A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG IT AND TRACKS SOUTH OF
THE REGION. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...SHOWERS OR EVEN A PERIOD OF STEADY
RAIN COULD LINGER IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR SUN INTO EARLY
MON...ESP ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.

SO...INITIALLY EXPECT DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY AS UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE ONCE AGAIN. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE
MODERATE...SO DESPITE MAX TEMPS REACHING THE MID/UPPER 80S IN
PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...APPARENT TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY
REMAIN BELOW 90. FRI NT/SAT AM SHOULD REMAIN DRY...BUT WARM...WITH
MIN TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 60S FOR MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND 55-60 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

FOR SAT-MON...THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT SHOULD APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATER SAT...AND SLOWLY PRESS SOUTH AND EAST SAT NT INTO
EARLY SUN. WILL INDICATE HIGH CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS FOR
SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR SAT AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...GRADUALLY TAPERING
DOWNWARD FROM NW TO SE ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST THE FRONT REACHES...AND WHETHER A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO
LOW CHC FOR MOST CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS INTO MON. MAX TEMPS
SHOULD BE RATHER WARM SAT...WITH TEMPS REACHING 85-90 IN VALLEYS AND
LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. DEWPOINTS SHOULD RISE INTO
THE LOWER 60S...SO APPARENT TEMPS SHOULD BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
ACTUAL HIGH TEMPS OF 85-90. SAT NT/SUN AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
50S TO LOWER 60S...THEN EXPECT COOLER MAX TEMPS FOR SUN INTO
MON...WITH MAXES MAINLY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S SUN...AND MAINLY 60S
FOR MON. SUN NT/MON AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

MON NT-TUE...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACHES. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO LOW
CHC POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. MON
NT/TUE AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S...WITH TUE
MAX TEMPS REACHING 70-75 FOR MOST VALLEYS...AND 65-70 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL MAINTAIN A WARM
AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF TAF
SITES THROUGH 18Z ON WEDNESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE A PERIOD OF
FOG AND STRATUS AT KPSF BETWEEN 08Z AND 13Z EARLY THIS MORNING.
AFTER 18Z...EXPECT A BAND OF AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH IN THE
FORECAST AFTER 18Z AT ALL THE TAF SITES...AND A PROB30 GROUP FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS (WIND
GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH) BETWEEN 18Z AND 22Z AT KGFL/KALB/KPOU...AND
19Z TO 23Z AT KPSF.

WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY AT 5-10 KT AT KALB...AND LIGHT AND
VARIABLE ELSEWHERE THROUGH A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. AFTER 13Z
WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST TO
8-12 KT...WITH GUSTS OF 15-20 KT BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.


OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS IN THE 50S.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...MAINLY ON WEDNESDAY.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED MODERATE
DROUGHT AT THIS TIME.

WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE BETTER AND MORE
WIDESPREAD CHANCES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INT0 THE EVENING.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.75+ INCHES ARE EXPECTED SO STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...KL/WASULA
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM




000
FXUS61 KBOX 270545
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
145 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE THROUGH TOMORROW.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY...
WITH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY HAVING THE HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

200 AM UPDATE...

SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION STREAMING IN HIGHER
DEWPOINTS...MOISTENING UP THE PROFILE. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD
TO FOG DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE AND ISLANDS. HOWEVER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT STRATUS WILL DOMINATE
TONIGHT...WITH FOG DEVELOPING TOMORROW. CAN SEE STRATUS ALREADY
DEVELOPING PER LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY.

OTHERWISE TEMPS REMAIN QUITE MILD WITH MUCH OF THE REGION IN THE
UPPER 60S AWAY FROM THE SOUTH COAST. SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TO
REMAIN A TAD GUSTY ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.

OTHERWISE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY DAY FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH
TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 80S IN THE CONNECTICUT AND
MERRIMACK VALLEYS WITH MID 80S ELSEWHERE.  EXCEPTION TO THIS IS
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS WHERE BOTH ONSHORE WINDS
AND PERHAPS LINGERING MARINE STRATUS AND FOG WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM CLIMBING.  EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S IN THESE
LOCATIONS.

THIS LOOKS LIKE THE BETTER DAY FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  HOWEVER...THIS DOESN/T APPEAR TO OCCUR
UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  INSTABILITY IS A BIT BETTER THAN
IT WAS TODAY BUT IS STILL SOMEWHAT LACKING AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
LEAVE PLENTY TO BE DESIRED.  THE MAIN FOCUS FOR STORMS WILL BE OVER
NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA WHERE THE BETTER INSTABILITY AND FOCUSING
WILL BE.  THESE STORMS...MUCH LIKE TODAY...WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN PART OF THE CWA TOWARDS THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
WHILE THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE...THE
MOST LIKELY THREATS WITH THESE STORMS ARE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY
WINDS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST
INTO THE EVENING AS WIND SHEAR INCREASES WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
MOVING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  ANOTHER WARM NIGHT IN STORE WITH
LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

TO START OFF...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES KEEP OVERALL UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER 48...WITH RIDGING ALONG OR
JUST E OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND TROUGHING ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO
THE SOUTHWEST. MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL SLOW DEAMPLIFICATION
OF THE UPPER PATTERN GOING INTO THIS WEEKEND...WITH RIDGE AXIS
FLATTENING OUT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AS A SURFACE FRONT THAT TRIES TO
WORK ACROSS THE REGION WASHES OUT DURING FRIDAY. BERMUDA HIGH RE-
ESTABLISHES FOR EARLY THIS WEEKEND WHILE ANOTHER FRONT WORKS SE OUT
OF QUEBEC. THIS FRONT LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH TO WORK SLOWLY SE AS THE
WESTERN ATLC RIDGE SHIFTS S AND UPPER TROUGHING TAKES OVER ACROSS
THE NORTHERN STREAM. BIG QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER THE FRONT WILL
CLEAR OFF THE S COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK OR WILL IT STALL CLOSER TO OR
OVER SOUTHERN AREAS.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...
THOUGH DID LEAN TOWARD MORE TOWARD THE ENSEMBLES FROM THIS WEEKEND
ONWARD DUE TO TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT. FOR THE
LATTER TIMEFRAME...LEANED CLOSER TO THE SLOWER ECMWF AND ECENS
MEANS.

DETAILS...

THURSDAY...WILL SEE LEFTOVER SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS WESTERN AREAS
THU MORNING WITH PWATS ON ORDER OF AROUND 1.5 INCHES. THE FRONT
SHIFTS S TAKING THE HIGHER PWAT AIR WITH IT...SO EXPECT THE PRECIP
TO TEND TO WEAKEN THOUGH WILL LINGER WHERE MILDER TEMPS ARE THANKS
TO DIURNAL INFLUENCES. INSTABILITY ALSO SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND WEAKENS
SO EXPECT ANY THUNDERSTORMS TO TAPER OFF BY AROUND MIDDAY. BEST SHOT
FOR PRECIP WILL BE FROM THE MERRIMACK VALLEY SE ACROSS CENTRAL MA TO
THE MID AND LOWER CT VALLEY. CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW QUICK DOWNPOURS
THROUGH MIDDAY WITH THE HIGHER PWAT AIRMASS. WILL SEE AREAS OF
FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...DEVELOP ACROSS S COASTAL AREAS THU NIGHT INTO
FRI MORNING.

FRIDAY...MODELS STARTED TO SIGNAL DRIER AIR WORKING IN ON MONDAY...
BUT MOST OF THE MODEL SUITE HAS HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDING S OUT OF
QUEBEC SO EXPECT A DRY BUT MILD DAY. DEWPTS DROP A BIT...DOWN TO THE
50S...BUT WILL BEGIN TO RISE AGAIN FRI NIGHT. WILL SEE A LIGHT E-SE
WIND FLOW SO WILL BE COOLER ALONG THE COAST...HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
70S EXCEPT 65-70 ACROSS COASTAL AREAS...RANGING TO THE LOWER TO MID
80S ACROSS THE CT VALLEY.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REPOSITIONS OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD SO SW
WINDS KICK IN AGAIN BRINGING A RETURN TO MORE HUMID AIR. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT START TO APPROACH OUT OF GREAT LAKES AND WESTERN QUEBEC.
ALSO NOTING INCREASING INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...
WITH K INDICES RISING TO THE LOWER-MID 30S AND TQ VALUES IN THE
UPPER TEENS SO COULD SEE SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION WHICH COULD LAST
INTO SAT NIGHT. BEST LIFT MOVES CLOSER DURING LATE SAT/SAT NIGHT SO
WILL SEE SCT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. A PWAT SWATH OF 1.6 TO
1.75 INCHES PUSHES OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SO MAY SEE SOME HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS WITH ANY CONVECTION.  WILL SEE QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE
EARLY SATURDAY...SO TEMPS WILL REBOUND TO THE 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS
EXCEPT THE LOWER-MID 70S ALONG S COASTAL AREAS.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING...THEN
REACHES THE S COAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECT CHANCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. STILL SOME TIMING ISSUES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF
BUT A BIT BETTER FOR THIS TIMEFRAME. WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE
FRONT...EXPECT SCT PRECIP TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUN NIGHT.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...SOMEWHAT LOWER CONFIDENCE DUE TO TIMING AND
PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES WITH THE FRONT AND WHETHER IT STALLS NEAR THE
S COAST OR OFFSHORE. AT THIS POINT...KEPT CHANCE POPS ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH MIDDAY THEN SHOULD PUSH JUST OFFSHORE BUT
MAY LINGER ACROSS THE ISLANDS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY SUNDAY. MAY
SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS EARLY...THEN INSTABILITY WORKS OFFSHORE BUT
COULD STILL SEE SOME SHOWERS WHILE HIGH PRES MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND.

HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING FOR SOUTHERN AREAS INTO TUESDAY
AS FRONT LOOKS TO LINGER...THEN MAY TRY TO MAKE A RUN BACK NE AS THE
HIGH PUSHES OFF INTO THE GULF OF MAINE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

BEFORE 12Z...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. COULD SEE IFR CIGS AND VSBYS
ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE AND ISLANDS. OTHERWISE VFR.

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR/MVFR ALONG THE SOUTH COAST
WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION IS VFR. WESTERN SITES COULD DROP
TO MVFR WITHIN ANY -SHRA/-TSRA THAT DEVELOPS. EXPECT SW WINDS TO
GUST UP TO 20-30 KT AT TIMES MAINLY ACROSS RI/SE MA.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO IFR
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS AS MARITIME FOG AND
STRATUS ROLL IN.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE
REGION SWITCHING THE SOUTHERLY WINDS TO THE WEST DURING THE DAY.
IFR...FOG AND STRATUS IS POSSIBLE BEFORE FRONTAL PASSAGE ALONG SE
TAF SITES. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS/T-STORMS ALONG THE FRONT
DROPPING CONDITIONS TO MVFR. OTHERWISE VFR WILL PREVAIL.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. COULD SEE CONDITIONS DROP
TO MVFR WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORM TODAY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY...VFR. MAY SEE LOCAL MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS EARLY FRI MORNING
ALONG S COAST IN PATCHY FOG...THEN WILL LOWER AGAIN LATE FRI
NIGHT/SAT MORNING TO MVFR-IFR.

SATURDAY...PATCHY FOG EARLY SAT MORNING WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE. SCT SHRA/TSRA SAT THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH LOCAL MVFR-
IFR CONDITIONS. SW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KT MAINLY ALONG THE COAST
SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING.

SUNDAY...SCT SHOWERS TSTMS LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD END
SUN NIGHT. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE UP THROUGH TONIGHT...MAINLY ON THE
OUTER WATERS FOR SEAS AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. SEAS WILL CLIMB TO
5 FEET AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE PERIOD. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
WILL EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT FOR THE INNER WATERS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL DIMINISH...BUT MAY LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET.

IN ADDITION...AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ON THE
WATERS TONIGHT...SUBSTANTIALLY REDUCING VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY...EXPECT SW WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KT. SEAS BUILD TO
AROUND 5 FT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS TO THE OUTER WATERS E OF CAPE
COD...BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT THU NIGHT. VSBYS REDUCED IN
AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DENSE OFFSHORE BOTH THU AND FRI NIGHTS.

FRIDAY...LIGHT N-NE WINDS BECOME E DURING THE DAY...THEN SHIFT TO
S-SW FRI NIGHT. EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SW WINDS MAY BRIEFLY GUST TO 25 KT DURING SAT ON
THE EASTERN WATERS...OTHERWISE EXPECT GUSTS UP TO 20 KT SEAS BUILD
AGAIN TO AROUND 5 FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS...WHICH WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE LATE SUN OR SUN NIGHT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ235-237-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/EVT
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...DUNTEN/EVT
MARINE...RLG/EVT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 270545
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
145 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE THROUGH TOMORROW.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY...
WITH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY HAVING THE HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

200 AM UPDATE...

SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION STREAMING IN HIGHER
DEWPOINTS...MOISTENING UP THE PROFILE. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD
TO FOG DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE AND ISLANDS. HOWEVER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT STRATUS WILL DOMINATE
TONIGHT...WITH FOG DEVELOPING TOMORROW. CAN SEE STRATUS ALREADY
DEVELOPING PER LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY.

OTHERWISE TEMPS REMAIN QUITE MILD WITH MUCH OF THE REGION IN THE
UPPER 60S AWAY FROM THE SOUTH COAST. SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TO
REMAIN A TAD GUSTY ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.

OTHERWISE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY DAY FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH
TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 80S IN THE CONNECTICUT AND
MERRIMACK VALLEYS WITH MID 80S ELSEWHERE.  EXCEPTION TO THIS IS
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS WHERE BOTH ONSHORE WINDS
AND PERHAPS LINGERING MARINE STRATUS AND FOG WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM CLIMBING.  EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S IN THESE
LOCATIONS.

THIS LOOKS LIKE THE BETTER DAY FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  HOWEVER...THIS DOESN/T APPEAR TO OCCUR
UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  INSTABILITY IS A BIT BETTER THAN
IT WAS TODAY BUT IS STILL SOMEWHAT LACKING AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
LEAVE PLENTY TO BE DESIRED.  THE MAIN FOCUS FOR STORMS WILL BE OVER
NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA WHERE THE BETTER INSTABILITY AND FOCUSING
WILL BE.  THESE STORMS...MUCH LIKE TODAY...WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN PART OF THE CWA TOWARDS THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
WHILE THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE...THE
MOST LIKELY THREATS WITH THESE STORMS ARE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY
WINDS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST
INTO THE EVENING AS WIND SHEAR INCREASES WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
MOVING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  ANOTHER WARM NIGHT IN STORE WITH
LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

TO START OFF...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES KEEP OVERALL UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER 48...WITH RIDGING ALONG OR
JUST E OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND TROUGHING ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO
THE SOUTHWEST. MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL SLOW DEAMPLIFICATION
OF THE UPPER PATTERN GOING INTO THIS WEEKEND...WITH RIDGE AXIS
FLATTENING OUT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AS A SURFACE FRONT THAT TRIES TO
WORK ACROSS THE REGION WASHES OUT DURING FRIDAY. BERMUDA HIGH RE-
ESTABLISHES FOR EARLY THIS WEEKEND WHILE ANOTHER FRONT WORKS SE OUT
OF QUEBEC. THIS FRONT LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH TO WORK SLOWLY SE AS THE
WESTERN ATLC RIDGE SHIFTS S AND UPPER TROUGHING TAKES OVER ACROSS
THE NORTHERN STREAM. BIG QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER THE FRONT WILL
CLEAR OFF THE S COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK OR WILL IT STALL CLOSER TO OR
OVER SOUTHERN AREAS.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...
THOUGH DID LEAN TOWARD MORE TOWARD THE ENSEMBLES FROM THIS WEEKEND
ONWARD DUE TO TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT. FOR THE
LATTER TIMEFRAME...LEANED CLOSER TO THE SLOWER ECMWF AND ECENS
MEANS.

DETAILS...

THURSDAY...WILL SEE LEFTOVER SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS WESTERN AREAS
THU MORNING WITH PWATS ON ORDER OF AROUND 1.5 INCHES. THE FRONT
SHIFTS S TAKING THE HIGHER PWAT AIR WITH IT...SO EXPECT THE PRECIP
TO TEND TO WEAKEN THOUGH WILL LINGER WHERE MILDER TEMPS ARE THANKS
TO DIURNAL INFLUENCES. INSTABILITY ALSO SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND WEAKENS
SO EXPECT ANY THUNDERSTORMS TO TAPER OFF BY AROUND MIDDAY. BEST SHOT
FOR PRECIP WILL BE FROM THE MERRIMACK VALLEY SE ACROSS CENTRAL MA TO
THE MID AND LOWER CT VALLEY. CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW QUICK DOWNPOURS
THROUGH MIDDAY WITH THE HIGHER PWAT AIRMASS. WILL SEE AREAS OF
FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...DEVELOP ACROSS S COASTAL AREAS THU NIGHT INTO
FRI MORNING.

FRIDAY...MODELS STARTED TO SIGNAL DRIER AIR WORKING IN ON MONDAY...
BUT MOST OF THE MODEL SUITE HAS HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDING S OUT OF
QUEBEC SO EXPECT A DRY BUT MILD DAY. DEWPTS DROP A BIT...DOWN TO THE
50S...BUT WILL BEGIN TO RISE AGAIN FRI NIGHT. WILL SEE A LIGHT E-SE
WIND FLOW SO WILL BE COOLER ALONG THE COAST...HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
70S EXCEPT 65-70 ACROSS COASTAL AREAS...RANGING TO THE LOWER TO MID
80S ACROSS THE CT VALLEY.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REPOSITIONS OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD SO SW
WINDS KICK IN AGAIN BRINGING A RETURN TO MORE HUMID AIR. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT START TO APPROACH OUT OF GREAT LAKES AND WESTERN QUEBEC.
ALSO NOTING INCREASING INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...
WITH K INDICES RISING TO THE LOWER-MID 30S AND TQ VALUES IN THE
UPPER TEENS SO COULD SEE SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION WHICH COULD LAST
INTO SAT NIGHT. BEST LIFT MOVES CLOSER DURING LATE SAT/SAT NIGHT SO
WILL SEE SCT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. A PWAT SWATH OF 1.6 TO
1.75 INCHES PUSHES OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SO MAY SEE SOME HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS WITH ANY CONVECTION.  WILL SEE QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE
EARLY SATURDAY...SO TEMPS WILL REBOUND TO THE 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS
EXCEPT THE LOWER-MID 70S ALONG S COASTAL AREAS.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING...THEN
REACHES THE S COAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECT CHANCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. STILL SOME TIMING ISSUES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF
BUT A BIT BETTER FOR THIS TIMEFRAME. WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE
FRONT...EXPECT SCT PRECIP TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUN NIGHT.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...SOMEWHAT LOWER CONFIDENCE DUE TO TIMING AND
PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES WITH THE FRONT AND WHETHER IT STALLS NEAR THE
S COAST OR OFFSHORE. AT THIS POINT...KEPT CHANCE POPS ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH MIDDAY THEN SHOULD PUSH JUST OFFSHORE BUT
MAY LINGER ACROSS THE ISLANDS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY SUNDAY. MAY
SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS EARLY...THEN INSTABILITY WORKS OFFSHORE BUT
COULD STILL SEE SOME SHOWERS WHILE HIGH PRES MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND.

HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING FOR SOUTHERN AREAS INTO TUESDAY
AS FRONT LOOKS TO LINGER...THEN MAY TRY TO MAKE A RUN BACK NE AS THE
HIGH PUSHES OFF INTO THE GULF OF MAINE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

BEFORE 12Z...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. COULD SEE IFR CIGS AND VSBYS
ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE AND ISLANDS. OTHERWISE VFR.

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR/MVFR ALONG THE SOUTH COAST
WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION IS VFR. WESTERN SITES COULD DROP
TO MVFR WITHIN ANY -SHRA/-TSRA THAT DEVELOPS. EXPECT SW WINDS TO
GUST UP TO 20-30 KT AT TIMES MAINLY ACROSS RI/SE MA.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO IFR
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS AS MARITIME FOG AND
STRATUS ROLL IN.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE
REGION SWITCHING THE SOUTHERLY WINDS TO THE WEST DURING THE DAY.
IFR...FOG AND STRATUS IS POSSIBLE BEFORE FRONTAL PASSAGE ALONG SE
TAF SITES. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS/T-STORMS ALONG THE FRONT
DROPPING CONDITIONS TO MVFR. OTHERWISE VFR WILL PREVAIL.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. COULD SEE CONDITIONS DROP
TO MVFR WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORM TODAY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY...VFR. MAY SEE LOCAL MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS EARLY FRI MORNING
ALONG S COAST IN PATCHY FOG...THEN WILL LOWER AGAIN LATE FRI
NIGHT/SAT MORNING TO MVFR-IFR.

SATURDAY...PATCHY FOG EARLY SAT MORNING WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE. SCT SHRA/TSRA SAT THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH LOCAL MVFR-
IFR CONDITIONS. SW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KT MAINLY ALONG THE COAST
SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING.

SUNDAY...SCT SHOWERS TSTMS LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD END
SUN NIGHT. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE UP THROUGH TONIGHT...MAINLY ON THE
OUTER WATERS FOR SEAS AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. SEAS WILL CLIMB TO
5 FEET AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE PERIOD. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
WILL EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT FOR THE INNER WATERS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL DIMINISH...BUT MAY LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET.

IN ADDITION...AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ON THE
WATERS TONIGHT...SUBSTANTIALLY REDUCING VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY...EXPECT SW WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KT. SEAS BUILD TO
AROUND 5 FT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS TO THE OUTER WATERS E OF CAPE
COD...BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT THU NIGHT. VSBYS REDUCED IN
AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DENSE OFFSHORE BOTH THU AND FRI NIGHTS.

FRIDAY...LIGHT N-NE WINDS BECOME E DURING THE DAY...THEN SHIFT TO
S-SW FRI NIGHT. EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SW WINDS MAY BRIEFLY GUST TO 25 KT DURING SAT ON
THE EASTERN WATERS...OTHERWISE EXPECT GUSTS UP TO 20 KT SEAS BUILD
AGAIN TO AROUND 5 FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS...WHICH WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE LATE SUN OR SUN NIGHT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ235-237-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/EVT
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...DUNTEN/EVT
MARINE...RLG/EVT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 270545
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
145 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE THROUGH TOMORROW.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY...
WITH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY HAVING THE HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

200 AM UPDATE...

SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION STREAMING IN HIGHER
DEWPOINTS...MOISTENING UP THE PROFILE. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD
TO FOG DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE AND ISLANDS. HOWEVER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT STRATUS WILL DOMINATE
TONIGHT...WITH FOG DEVELOPING TOMORROW. CAN SEE STRATUS ALREADY
DEVELOPING PER LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY.

OTHERWISE TEMPS REMAIN QUITE MILD WITH MUCH OF THE REGION IN THE
UPPER 60S AWAY FROM THE SOUTH COAST. SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TO
REMAIN A TAD GUSTY ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.

OTHERWISE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY DAY FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH
TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 80S IN THE CONNECTICUT AND
MERRIMACK VALLEYS WITH MID 80S ELSEWHERE.  EXCEPTION TO THIS IS
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS WHERE BOTH ONSHORE WINDS
AND PERHAPS LINGERING MARINE STRATUS AND FOG WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM CLIMBING.  EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S IN THESE
LOCATIONS.

THIS LOOKS LIKE THE BETTER DAY FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  HOWEVER...THIS DOESN/T APPEAR TO OCCUR
UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  INSTABILITY IS A BIT BETTER THAN
IT WAS TODAY BUT IS STILL SOMEWHAT LACKING AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
LEAVE PLENTY TO BE DESIRED.  THE MAIN FOCUS FOR STORMS WILL BE OVER
NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA WHERE THE BETTER INSTABILITY AND FOCUSING
WILL BE.  THESE STORMS...MUCH LIKE TODAY...WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN PART OF THE CWA TOWARDS THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
WHILE THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE...THE
MOST LIKELY THREATS WITH THESE STORMS ARE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY
WINDS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST
INTO THE EVENING AS WIND SHEAR INCREASES WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
MOVING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  ANOTHER WARM NIGHT IN STORE WITH
LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

TO START OFF...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES KEEP OVERALL UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER 48...WITH RIDGING ALONG OR
JUST E OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND TROUGHING ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO
THE SOUTHWEST. MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL SLOW DEAMPLIFICATION
OF THE UPPER PATTERN GOING INTO THIS WEEKEND...WITH RIDGE AXIS
FLATTENING OUT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AS A SURFACE FRONT THAT TRIES TO
WORK ACROSS THE REGION WASHES OUT DURING FRIDAY. BERMUDA HIGH RE-
ESTABLISHES FOR EARLY THIS WEEKEND WHILE ANOTHER FRONT WORKS SE OUT
OF QUEBEC. THIS FRONT LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH TO WORK SLOWLY SE AS THE
WESTERN ATLC RIDGE SHIFTS S AND UPPER TROUGHING TAKES OVER ACROSS
THE NORTHERN STREAM. BIG QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER THE FRONT WILL
CLEAR OFF THE S COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK OR WILL IT STALL CLOSER TO OR
OVER SOUTHERN AREAS.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...
THOUGH DID LEAN TOWARD MORE TOWARD THE ENSEMBLES FROM THIS WEEKEND
ONWARD DUE TO TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT. FOR THE
LATTER TIMEFRAME...LEANED CLOSER TO THE SLOWER ECMWF AND ECENS
MEANS.

DETAILS...

THURSDAY...WILL SEE LEFTOVER SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS WESTERN AREAS
THU MORNING WITH PWATS ON ORDER OF AROUND 1.5 INCHES. THE FRONT
SHIFTS S TAKING THE HIGHER PWAT AIR WITH IT...SO EXPECT THE PRECIP
TO TEND TO WEAKEN THOUGH WILL LINGER WHERE MILDER TEMPS ARE THANKS
TO DIURNAL INFLUENCES. INSTABILITY ALSO SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND WEAKENS
SO EXPECT ANY THUNDERSTORMS TO TAPER OFF BY AROUND MIDDAY. BEST SHOT
FOR PRECIP WILL BE FROM THE MERRIMACK VALLEY SE ACROSS CENTRAL MA TO
THE MID AND LOWER CT VALLEY. CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW QUICK DOWNPOURS
THROUGH MIDDAY WITH THE HIGHER PWAT AIRMASS. WILL SEE AREAS OF
FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...DEVELOP ACROSS S COASTAL AREAS THU NIGHT INTO
FRI MORNING.

FRIDAY...MODELS STARTED TO SIGNAL DRIER AIR WORKING IN ON MONDAY...
BUT MOST OF THE MODEL SUITE HAS HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDING S OUT OF
QUEBEC SO EXPECT A DRY BUT MILD DAY. DEWPTS DROP A BIT...DOWN TO THE
50S...BUT WILL BEGIN TO RISE AGAIN FRI NIGHT. WILL SEE A LIGHT E-SE
WIND FLOW SO WILL BE COOLER ALONG THE COAST...HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
70S EXCEPT 65-70 ACROSS COASTAL AREAS...RANGING TO THE LOWER TO MID
80S ACROSS THE CT VALLEY.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REPOSITIONS OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD SO SW
WINDS KICK IN AGAIN BRINGING A RETURN TO MORE HUMID AIR. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT START TO APPROACH OUT OF GREAT LAKES AND WESTERN QUEBEC.
ALSO NOTING INCREASING INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...
WITH K INDICES RISING TO THE LOWER-MID 30S AND TQ VALUES IN THE
UPPER TEENS SO COULD SEE SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION WHICH COULD LAST
INTO SAT NIGHT. BEST LIFT MOVES CLOSER DURING LATE SAT/SAT NIGHT SO
WILL SEE SCT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. A PWAT SWATH OF 1.6 TO
1.75 INCHES PUSHES OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SO MAY SEE SOME HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS WITH ANY CONVECTION.  WILL SEE QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE
EARLY SATURDAY...SO TEMPS WILL REBOUND TO THE 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS
EXCEPT THE LOWER-MID 70S ALONG S COASTAL AREAS.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING...THEN
REACHES THE S COAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECT CHANCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. STILL SOME TIMING ISSUES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF
BUT A BIT BETTER FOR THIS TIMEFRAME. WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE
FRONT...EXPECT SCT PRECIP TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUN NIGHT.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...SOMEWHAT LOWER CONFIDENCE DUE TO TIMING AND
PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES WITH THE FRONT AND WHETHER IT STALLS NEAR THE
S COAST OR OFFSHORE. AT THIS POINT...KEPT CHANCE POPS ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH MIDDAY THEN SHOULD PUSH JUST OFFSHORE BUT
MAY LINGER ACROSS THE ISLANDS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY SUNDAY. MAY
SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS EARLY...THEN INSTABILITY WORKS OFFSHORE BUT
COULD STILL SEE SOME SHOWERS WHILE HIGH PRES MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND.

HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING FOR SOUTHERN AREAS INTO TUESDAY
AS FRONT LOOKS TO LINGER...THEN MAY TRY TO MAKE A RUN BACK NE AS THE
HIGH PUSHES OFF INTO THE GULF OF MAINE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

BEFORE 12Z...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. COULD SEE IFR CIGS AND VSBYS
ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE AND ISLANDS. OTHERWISE VFR.

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR/MVFR ALONG THE SOUTH COAST
WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION IS VFR. WESTERN SITES COULD DROP
TO MVFR WITHIN ANY -SHRA/-TSRA THAT DEVELOPS. EXPECT SW WINDS TO
GUST UP TO 20-30 KT AT TIMES MAINLY ACROSS RI/SE MA.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO IFR
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS AS MARITIME FOG AND
STRATUS ROLL IN.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE
REGION SWITCHING THE SOUTHERLY WINDS TO THE WEST DURING THE DAY.
IFR...FOG AND STRATUS IS POSSIBLE BEFORE FRONTAL PASSAGE ALONG SE
TAF SITES. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS/T-STORMS ALONG THE FRONT
DROPPING CONDITIONS TO MVFR. OTHERWISE VFR WILL PREVAIL.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. COULD SEE CONDITIONS DROP
TO MVFR WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORM TODAY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY...VFR. MAY SEE LOCAL MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS EARLY FRI MORNING
ALONG S COAST IN PATCHY FOG...THEN WILL LOWER AGAIN LATE FRI
NIGHT/SAT MORNING TO MVFR-IFR.

SATURDAY...PATCHY FOG EARLY SAT MORNING WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE. SCT SHRA/TSRA SAT THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH LOCAL MVFR-
IFR CONDITIONS. SW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KT MAINLY ALONG THE COAST
SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING.

SUNDAY...SCT SHOWERS TSTMS LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD END
SUN NIGHT. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE UP THROUGH TONIGHT...MAINLY ON THE
OUTER WATERS FOR SEAS AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. SEAS WILL CLIMB TO
5 FEET AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE PERIOD. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
WILL EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT FOR THE INNER WATERS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL DIMINISH...BUT MAY LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET.

IN ADDITION...AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ON THE
WATERS TONIGHT...SUBSTANTIALLY REDUCING VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY...EXPECT SW WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KT. SEAS BUILD TO
AROUND 5 FT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS TO THE OUTER WATERS E OF CAPE
COD...BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT THU NIGHT. VSBYS REDUCED IN
AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DENSE OFFSHORE BOTH THU AND FRI NIGHTS.

FRIDAY...LIGHT N-NE WINDS BECOME E DURING THE DAY...THEN SHIFT TO
S-SW FRI NIGHT. EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SW WINDS MAY BRIEFLY GUST TO 25 KT DURING SAT ON
THE EASTERN WATERS...OTHERWISE EXPECT GUSTS UP TO 20 KT SEAS BUILD
AGAIN TO AROUND 5 FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS...WHICH WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE LATE SUN OR SUN NIGHT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ235-237-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/EVT
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...DUNTEN/EVT
MARINE...RLG/EVT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 270545
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
145 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE THROUGH TOMORROW.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY...
WITH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY HAVING THE HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

200 AM UPDATE...

SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION STREAMING IN HIGHER
DEWPOINTS...MOISTENING UP THE PROFILE. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD
TO FOG DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE AND ISLANDS. HOWEVER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT STRATUS WILL DOMINATE
TONIGHT...WITH FOG DEVELOPING TOMORROW. CAN SEE STRATUS ALREADY
DEVELOPING PER LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY.

OTHERWISE TEMPS REMAIN QUITE MILD WITH MUCH OF THE REGION IN THE
UPPER 60S AWAY FROM THE SOUTH COAST. SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TO
REMAIN A TAD GUSTY ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.

OTHERWISE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY DAY FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH
TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 80S IN THE CONNECTICUT AND
MERRIMACK VALLEYS WITH MID 80S ELSEWHERE.  EXCEPTION TO THIS IS
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS WHERE BOTH ONSHORE WINDS
AND PERHAPS LINGERING MARINE STRATUS AND FOG WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM CLIMBING.  EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S IN THESE
LOCATIONS.

THIS LOOKS LIKE THE BETTER DAY FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  HOWEVER...THIS DOESN/T APPEAR TO OCCUR
UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  INSTABILITY IS A BIT BETTER THAN
IT WAS TODAY BUT IS STILL SOMEWHAT LACKING AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
LEAVE PLENTY TO BE DESIRED.  THE MAIN FOCUS FOR STORMS WILL BE OVER
NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA WHERE THE BETTER INSTABILITY AND FOCUSING
WILL BE.  THESE STORMS...MUCH LIKE TODAY...WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN PART OF THE CWA TOWARDS THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
WHILE THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE...THE
MOST LIKELY THREATS WITH THESE STORMS ARE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY
WINDS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST
INTO THE EVENING AS WIND SHEAR INCREASES WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
MOVING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  ANOTHER WARM NIGHT IN STORE WITH
LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

TO START OFF...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES KEEP OVERALL UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER 48...WITH RIDGING ALONG OR
JUST E OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND TROUGHING ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO
THE SOUTHWEST. MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL SLOW DEAMPLIFICATION
OF THE UPPER PATTERN GOING INTO THIS WEEKEND...WITH RIDGE AXIS
FLATTENING OUT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AS A SURFACE FRONT THAT TRIES TO
WORK ACROSS THE REGION WASHES OUT DURING FRIDAY. BERMUDA HIGH RE-
ESTABLISHES FOR EARLY THIS WEEKEND WHILE ANOTHER FRONT WORKS SE OUT
OF QUEBEC. THIS FRONT LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH TO WORK SLOWLY SE AS THE
WESTERN ATLC RIDGE SHIFTS S AND UPPER TROUGHING TAKES OVER ACROSS
THE NORTHERN STREAM. BIG QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER THE FRONT WILL
CLEAR OFF THE S COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK OR WILL IT STALL CLOSER TO OR
OVER SOUTHERN AREAS.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...
THOUGH DID LEAN TOWARD MORE TOWARD THE ENSEMBLES FROM THIS WEEKEND
ONWARD DUE TO TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT. FOR THE
LATTER TIMEFRAME...LEANED CLOSER TO THE SLOWER ECMWF AND ECENS
MEANS.

DETAILS...

THURSDAY...WILL SEE LEFTOVER SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS WESTERN AREAS
THU MORNING WITH PWATS ON ORDER OF AROUND 1.5 INCHES. THE FRONT
SHIFTS S TAKING THE HIGHER PWAT AIR WITH IT...SO EXPECT THE PRECIP
TO TEND TO WEAKEN THOUGH WILL LINGER WHERE MILDER TEMPS ARE THANKS
TO DIURNAL INFLUENCES. INSTABILITY ALSO SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND WEAKENS
SO EXPECT ANY THUNDERSTORMS TO TAPER OFF BY AROUND MIDDAY. BEST SHOT
FOR PRECIP WILL BE FROM THE MERRIMACK VALLEY SE ACROSS CENTRAL MA TO
THE MID AND LOWER CT VALLEY. CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW QUICK DOWNPOURS
THROUGH MIDDAY WITH THE HIGHER PWAT AIRMASS. WILL SEE AREAS OF
FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...DEVELOP ACROSS S COASTAL AREAS THU NIGHT INTO
FRI MORNING.

FRIDAY...MODELS STARTED TO SIGNAL DRIER AIR WORKING IN ON MONDAY...
BUT MOST OF THE MODEL SUITE HAS HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDING S OUT OF
QUEBEC SO EXPECT A DRY BUT MILD DAY. DEWPTS DROP A BIT...DOWN TO THE
50S...BUT WILL BEGIN TO RISE AGAIN FRI NIGHT. WILL SEE A LIGHT E-SE
WIND FLOW SO WILL BE COOLER ALONG THE COAST...HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
70S EXCEPT 65-70 ACROSS COASTAL AREAS...RANGING TO THE LOWER TO MID
80S ACROSS THE CT VALLEY.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REPOSITIONS OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD SO SW
WINDS KICK IN AGAIN BRINGING A RETURN TO MORE HUMID AIR. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT START TO APPROACH OUT OF GREAT LAKES AND WESTERN QUEBEC.
ALSO NOTING INCREASING INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...
WITH K INDICES RISING TO THE LOWER-MID 30S AND TQ VALUES IN THE
UPPER TEENS SO COULD SEE SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION WHICH COULD LAST
INTO SAT NIGHT. BEST LIFT MOVES CLOSER DURING LATE SAT/SAT NIGHT SO
WILL SEE SCT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. A PWAT SWATH OF 1.6 TO
1.75 INCHES PUSHES OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SO MAY SEE SOME HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS WITH ANY CONVECTION.  WILL SEE QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE
EARLY SATURDAY...SO TEMPS WILL REBOUND TO THE 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS
EXCEPT THE LOWER-MID 70S ALONG S COASTAL AREAS.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING...THEN
REACHES THE S COAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECT CHANCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. STILL SOME TIMING ISSUES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF
BUT A BIT BETTER FOR THIS TIMEFRAME. WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE
FRONT...EXPECT SCT PRECIP TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUN NIGHT.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...SOMEWHAT LOWER CONFIDENCE DUE TO TIMING AND
PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES WITH THE FRONT AND WHETHER IT STALLS NEAR THE
S COAST OR OFFSHORE. AT THIS POINT...KEPT CHANCE POPS ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH MIDDAY THEN SHOULD PUSH JUST OFFSHORE BUT
MAY LINGER ACROSS THE ISLANDS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY SUNDAY. MAY
SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS EARLY...THEN INSTABILITY WORKS OFFSHORE BUT
COULD STILL SEE SOME SHOWERS WHILE HIGH PRES MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND.

HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING FOR SOUTHERN AREAS INTO TUESDAY
AS FRONT LOOKS TO LINGER...THEN MAY TRY TO MAKE A RUN BACK NE AS THE
HIGH PUSHES OFF INTO THE GULF OF MAINE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

BEFORE 12Z...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. COULD SEE IFR CIGS AND VSBYS
ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE AND ISLANDS. OTHERWISE VFR.

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR/MVFR ALONG THE SOUTH COAST
WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION IS VFR. WESTERN SITES COULD DROP
TO MVFR WITHIN ANY -SHRA/-TSRA THAT DEVELOPS. EXPECT SW WINDS TO
GUST UP TO 20-30 KT AT TIMES MAINLY ACROSS RI/SE MA.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO IFR
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS AS MARITIME FOG AND
STRATUS ROLL IN.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE
REGION SWITCHING THE SOUTHERLY WINDS TO THE WEST DURING THE DAY.
IFR...FOG AND STRATUS IS POSSIBLE BEFORE FRONTAL PASSAGE ALONG SE
TAF SITES. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS/T-STORMS ALONG THE FRONT
DROPPING CONDITIONS TO MVFR. OTHERWISE VFR WILL PREVAIL.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. COULD SEE CONDITIONS DROP
TO MVFR WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORM TODAY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY...VFR. MAY SEE LOCAL MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS EARLY FRI MORNING
ALONG S COAST IN PATCHY FOG...THEN WILL LOWER AGAIN LATE FRI
NIGHT/SAT MORNING TO MVFR-IFR.

SATURDAY...PATCHY FOG EARLY SAT MORNING WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE. SCT SHRA/TSRA SAT THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH LOCAL MVFR-
IFR CONDITIONS. SW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KT MAINLY ALONG THE COAST
SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING.

SUNDAY...SCT SHOWERS TSTMS LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD END
SUN NIGHT. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE UP THROUGH TONIGHT...MAINLY ON THE
OUTER WATERS FOR SEAS AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. SEAS WILL CLIMB TO
5 FEET AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE PERIOD. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
WILL EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT FOR THE INNER WATERS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL DIMINISH...BUT MAY LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET.

IN ADDITION...AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ON THE
WATERS TONIGHT...SUBSTANTIALLY REDUCING VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY...EXPECT SW WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KT. SEAS BUILD TO
AROUND 5 FT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS TO THE OUTER WATERS E OF CAPE
COD...BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT THU NIGHT. VSBYS REDUCED IN
AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DENSE OFFSHORE BOTH THU AND FRI NIGHTS.

FRIDAY...LIGHT N-NE WINDS BECOME E DURING THE DAY...THEN SHIFT TO
S-SW FRI NIGHT. EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SW WINDS MAY BRIEFLY GUST TO 25 KT DURING SAT ON
THE EASTERN WATERS...OTHERWISE EXPECT GUSTS UP TO 20 KT SEAS BUILD
AGAIN TO AROUND 5 FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS...WHICH WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE LATE SUN OR SUN NIGHT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ235-237-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/EVT
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...DUNTEN/EVT
MARINE...RLG/EVT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 270545
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
145 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE THROUGH TOMORROW.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY...
WITH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY HAVING THE HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

200 AM UPDATE...

SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION STREAMING IN HIGHER
DEWPOINTS...MOISTENING UP THE PROFILE. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD
TO FOG DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE AND ISLANDS. HOWEVER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT STRATUS WILL DOMINATE
TONIGHT...WITH FOG DEVELOPING TOMORROW. CAN SEE STRATUS ALREADY
DEVELOPING PER LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY.

OTHERWISE TEMPS REMAIN QUITE MILD WITH MUCH OF THE REGION IN THE
UPPER 60S AWAY FROM THE SOUTH COAST. SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TO
REMAIN A TAD GUSTY ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.

OTHERWISE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY DAY FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH
TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 80S IN THE CONNECTICUT AND
MERRIMACK VALLEYS WITH MID 80S ELSEWHERE.  EXCEPTION TO THIS IS
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS WHERE BOTH ONSHORE WINDS
AND PERHAPS LINGERING MARINE STRATUS AND FOG WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM CLIMBING.  EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S IN THESE
LOCATIONS.

THIS LOOKS LIKE THE BETTER DAY FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  HOWEVER...THIS DOESN/T APPEAR TO OCCUR
UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  INSTABILITY IS A BIT BETTER THAN
IT WAS TODAY BUT IS STILL SOMEWHAT LACKING AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
LEAVE PLENTY TO BE DESIRED.  THE MAIN FOCUS FOR STORMS WILL BE OVER
NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA WHERE THE BETTER INSTABILITY AND FOCUSING
WILL BE.  THESE STORMS...MUCH LIKE TODAY...WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN PART OF THE CWA TOWARDS THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
WHILE THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE...THE
MOST LIKELY THREATS WITH THESE STORMS ARE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY
WINDS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST
INTO THE EVENING AS WIND SHEAR INCREASES WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
MOVING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  ANOTHER WARM NIGHT IN STORE WITH
LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

TO START OFF...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES KEEP OVERALL UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER 48...WITH RIDGING ALONG OR
JUST E OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND TROUGHING ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO
THE SOUTHWEST. MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL SLOW DEAMPLIFICATION
OF THE UPPER PATTERN GOING INTO THIS WEEKEND...WITH RIDGE AXIS
FLATTENING OUT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AS A SURFACE FRONT THAT TRIES TO
WORK ACROSS THE REGION WASHES OUT DURING FRIDAY. BERMUDA HIGH RE-
ESTABLISHES FOR EARLY THIS WEEKEND WHILE ANOTHER FRONT WORKS SE OUT
OF QUEBEC. THIS FRONT LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH TO WORK SLOWLY SE AS THE
WESTERN ATLC RIDGE SHIFTS S AND UPPER TROUGHING TAKES OVER ACROSS
THE NORTHERN STREAM. BIG QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER THE FRONT WILL
CLEAR OFF THE S COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK OR WILL IT STALL CLOSER TO OR
OVER SOUTHERN AREAS.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...
THOUGH DID LEAN TOWARD MORE TOWARD THE ENSEMBLES FROM THIS WEEKEND
ONWARD DUE TO TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT. FOR THE
LATTER TIMEFRAME...LEANED CLOSER TO THE SLOWER ECMWF AND ECENS
MEANS.

DETAILS...

THURSDAY...WILL SEE LEFTOVER SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS WESTERN AREAS
THU MORNING WITH PWATS ON ORDER OF AROUND 1.5 INCHES. THE FRONT
SHIFTS S TAKING THE HIGHER PWAT AIR WITH IT...SO EXPECT THE PRECIP
TO TEND TO WEAKEN THOUGH WILL LINGER WHERE MILDER TEMPS ARE THANKS
TO DIURNAL INFLUENCES. INSTABILITY ALSO SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND WEAKENS
SO EXPECT ANY THUNDERSTORMS TO TAPER OFF BY AROUND MIDDAY. BEST SHOT
FOR PRECIP WILL BE FROM THE MERRIMACK VALLEY SE ACROSS CENTRAL MA TO
THE MID AND LOWER CT VALLEY. CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW QUICK DOWNPOURS
THROUGH MIDDAY WITH THE HIGHER PWAT AIRMASS. WILL SEE AREAS OF
FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...DEVELOP ACROSS S COASTAL AREAS THU NIGHT INTO
FRI MORNING.

FRIDAY...MODELS STARTED TO SIGNAL DRIER AIR WORKING IN ON MONDAY...
BUT MOST OF THE MODEL SUITE HAS HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDING S OUT OF
QUEBEC SO EXPECT A DRY BUT MILD DAY. DEWPTS DROP A BIT...DOWN TO THE
50S...BUT WILL BEGIN TO RISE AGAIN FRI NIGHT. WILL SEE A LIGHT E-SE
WIND FLOW SO WILL BE COOLER ALONG THE COAST...HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
70S EXCEPT 65-70 ACROSS COASTAL AREAS...RANGING TO THE LOWER TO MID
80S ACROSS THE CT VALLEY.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REPOSITIONS OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD SO SW
WINDS KICK IN AGAIN BRINGING A RETURN TO MORE HUMID AIR. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT START TO APPROACH OUT OF GREAT LAKES AND WESTERN QUEBEC.
ALSO NOTING INCREASING INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...
WITH K INDICES RISING TO THE LOWER-MID 30S AND TQ VALUES IN THE
UPPER TEENS SO COULD SEE SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION WHICH COULD LAST
INTO SAT NIGHT. BEST LIFT MOVES CLOSER DURING LATE SAT/SAT NIGHT SO
WILL SEE SCT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. A PWAT SWATH OF 1.6 TO
1.75 INCHES PUSHES OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SO MAY SEE SOME HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS WITH ANY CONVECTION.  WILL SEE QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE
EARLY SATURDAY...SO TEMPS WILL REBOUND TO THE 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS
EXCEPT THE LOWER-MID 70S ALONG S COASTAL AREAS.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING...THEN
REACHES THE S COAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECT CHANCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. STILL SOME TIMING ISSUES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF
BUT A BIT BETTER FOR THIS TIMEFRAME. WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE
FRONT...EXPECT SCT PRECIP TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUN NIGHT.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...SOMEWHAT LOWER CONFIDENCE DUE TO TIMING AND
PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES WITH THE FRONT AND WHETHER IT STALLS NEAR THE
S COAST OR OFFSHORE. AT THIS POINT...KEPT CHANCE POPS ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH MIDDAY THEN SHOULD PUSH JUST OFFSHORE BUT
MAY LINGER ACROSS THE ISLANDS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY SUNDAY. MAY
SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS EARLY...THEN INSTABILITY WORKS OFFSHORE BUT
COULD STILL SEE SOME SHOWERS WHILE HIGH PRES MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND.

HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING FOR SOUTHERN AREAS INTO TUESDAY
AS FRONT LOOKS TO LINGER...THEN MAY TRY TO MAKE A RUN BACK NE AS THE
HIGH PUSHES OFF INTO THE GULF OF MAINE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

BEFORE 12Z...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. COULD SEE IFR CIGS AND VSBYS
ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE AND ISLANDS. OTHERWISE VFR.

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR/MVFR ALONG THE SOUTH COAST
WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION IS VFR. WESTERN SITES COULD DROP
TO MVFR WITHIN ANY -SHRA/-TSRA THAT DEVELOPS. EXPECT SW WINDS TO
GUST UP TO 20-30 KT AT TIMES MAINLY ACROSS RI/SE MA.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO IFR
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS AS MARITIME FOG AND
STRATUS ROLL IN.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE
REGION SWITCHING THE SOUTHERLY WINDS TO THE WEST DURING THE DAY.
IFR...FOG AND STRATUS IS POSSIBLE BEFORE FRONTAL PASSAGE ALONG SE
TAF SITES. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS/T-STORMS ALONG THE FRONT
DROPPING CONDITIONS TO MVFR. OTHERWISE VFR WILL PREVAIL.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. COULD SEE CONDITIONS DROP
TO MVFR WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORM TODAY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY...VFR. MAY SEE LOCAL MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS EARLY FRI MORNING
ALONG S COAST IN PATCHY FOG...THEN WILL LOWER AGAIN LATE FRI
NIGHT/SAT MORNING TO MVFR-IFR.

SATURDAY...PATCHY FOG EARLY SAT MORNING WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE. SCT SHRA/TSRA SAT THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH LOCAL MVFR-
IFR CONDITIONS. SW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KT MAINLY ALONG THE COAST
SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING.

SUNDAY...SCT SHOWERS TSTMS LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD END
SUN NIGHT. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE UP THROUGH TONIGHT...MAINLY ON THE
OUTER WATERS FOR SEAS AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. SEAS WILL CLIMB TO
5 FEET AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE PERIOD. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
WILL EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT FOR THE INNER WATERS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL DIMINISH...BUT MAY LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET.

IN ADDITION...AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ON THE
WATERS TONIGHT...SUBSTANTIALLY REDUCING VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY...EXPECT SW WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KT. SEAS BUILD TO
AROUND 5 FT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS TO THE OUTER WATERS E OF CAPE
COD...BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT THU NIGHT. VSBYS REDUCED IN
AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DENSE OFFSHORE BOTH THU AND FRI NIGHTS.

FRIDAY...LIGHT N-NE WINDS BECOME E DURING THE DAY...THEN SHIFT TO
S-SW FRI NIGHT. EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SW WINDS MAY BRIEFLY GUST TO 25 KT DURING SAT ON
THE EASTERN WATERS...OTHERWISE EXPECT GUSTS UP TO 20 KT SEAS BUILD
AGAIN TO AROUND 5 FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS...WHICH WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE LATE SUN OR SUN NIGHT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ235-237-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/EVT
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...DUNTEN/EVT
MARINE...RLG/EVT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 270545
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
145 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE THROUGH TOMORROW.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY...
WITH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY HAVING THE HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

200 AM UPDATE...

SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION STREAMING IN HIGHER
DEWPOINTS...MOISTENING UP THE PROFILE. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD
TO FOG DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE AND ISLANDS. HOWEVER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT STRATUS WILL DOMINATE
TONIGHT...WITH FOG DEVELOPING TOMORROW. CAN SEE STRATUS ALREADY
DEVELOPING PER LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY.

OTHERWISE TEMPS REMAIN QUITE MILD WITH MUCH OF THE REGION IN THE
UPPER 60S AWAY FROM THE SOUTH COAST. SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TO
REMAIN A TAD GUSTY ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.

OTHERWISE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY DAY FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH
TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 80S IN THE CONNECTICUT AND
MERRIMACK VALLEYS WITH MID 80S ELSEWHERE.  EXCEPTION TO THIS IS
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS WHERE BOTH ONSHORE WINDS
AND PERHAPS LINGERING MARINE STRATUS AND FOG WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM CLIMBING.  EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S IN THESE
LOCATIONS.

THIS LOOKS LIKE THE BETTER DAY FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  HOWEVER...THIS DOESN/T APPEAR TO OCCUR
UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  INSTABILITY IS A BIT BETTER THAN
IT WAS TODAY BUT IS STILL SOMEWHAT LACKING AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
LEAVE PLENTY TO BE DESIRED.  THE MAIN FOCUS FOR STORMS WILL BE OVER
NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA WHERE THE BETTER INSTABILITY AND FOCUSING
WILL BE.  THESE STORMS...MUCH LIKE TODAY...WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN PART OF THE CWA TOWARDS THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
WHILE THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE...THE
MOST LIKELY THREATS WITH THESE STORMS ARE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY
WINDS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST
INTO THE EVENING AS WIND SHEAR INCREASES WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
MOVING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  ANOTHER WARM NIGHT IN STORE WITH
LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

TO START OFF...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES KEEP OVERALL UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER 48...WITH RIDGING ALONG OR
JUST E OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND TROUGHING ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO
THE SOUTHWEST. MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL SLOW DEAMPLIFICATION
OF THE UPPER PATTERN GOING INTO THIS WEEKEND...WITH RIDGE AXIS
FLATTENING OUT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AS A SURFACE FRONT THAT TRIES TO
WORK ACROSS THE REGION WASHES OUT DURING FRIDAY. BERMUDA HIGH RE-
ESTABLISHES FOR EARLY THIS WEEKEND WHILE ANOTHER FRONT WORKS SE OUT
OF QUEBEC. THIS FRONT LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH TO WORK SLOWLY SE AS THE
WESTERN ATLC RIDGE SHIFTS S AND UPPER TROUGHING TAKES OVER ACROSS
THE NORTHERN STREAM. BIG QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER THE FRONT WILL
CLEAR OFF THE S COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK OR WILL IT STALL CLOSER TO OR
OVER SOUTHERN AREAS.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...
THOUGH DID LEAN TOWARD MORE TOWARD THE ENSEMBLES FROM THIS WEEKEND
ONWARD DUE TO TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT. FOR THE
LATTER TIMEFRAME...LEANED CLOSER TO THE SLOWER ECMWF AND ECENS
MEANS.

DETAILS...

THURSDAY...WILL SEE LEFTOVER SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS WESTERN AREAS
THU MORNING WITH PWATS ON ORDER OF AROUND 1.5 INCHES. THE FRONT
SHIFTS S TAKING THE HIGHER PWAT AIR WITH IT...SO EXPECT THE PRECIP
TO TEND TO WEAKEN THOUGH WILL LINGER WHERE MILDER TEMPS ARE THANKS
TO DIURNAL INFLUENCES. INSTABILITY ALSO SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND WEAKENS
SO EXPECT ANY THUNDERSTORMS TO TAPER OFF BY AROUND MIDDAY. BEST SHOT
FOR PRECIP WILL BE FROM THE MERRIMACK VALLEY SE ACROSS CENTRAL MA TO
THE MID AND LOWER CT VALLEY. CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW QUICK DOWNPOURS
THROUGH MIDDAY WITH THE HIGHER PWAT AIRMASS. WILL SEE AREAS OF
FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...DEVELOP ACROSS S COASTAL AREAS THU NIGHT INTO
FRI MORNING.

FRIDAY...MODELS STARTED TO SIGNAL DRIER AIR WORKING IN ON MONDAY...
BUT MOST OF THE MODEL SUITE HAS HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDING S OUT OF
QUEBEC SO EXPECT A DRY BUT MILD DAY. DEWPTS DROP A BIT...DOWN TO THE
50S...BUT WILL BEGIN TO RISE AGAIN FRI NIGHT. WILL SEE A LIGHT E-SE
WIND FLOW SO WILL BE COOLER ALONG THE COAST...HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
70S EXCEPT 65-70 ACROSS COASTAL AREAS...RANGING TO THE LOWER TO MID
80S ACROSS THE CT VALLEY.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REPOSITIONS OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD SO SW
WINDS KICK IN AGAIN BRINGING A RETURN TO MORE HUMID AIR. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT START TO APPROACH OUT OF GREAT LAKES AND WESTERN QUEBEC.
ALSO NOTING INCREASING INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...
WITH K INDICES RISING TO THE LOWER-MID 30S AND TQ VALUES IN THE
UPPER TEENS SO COULD SEE SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION WHICH COULD LAST
INTO SAT NIGHT. BEST LIFT MOVES CLOSER DURING LATE SAT/SAT NIGHT SO
WILL SEE SCT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. A PWAT SWATH OF 1.6 TO
1.75 INCHES PUSHES OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SO MAY SEE SOME HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS WITH ANY CONVECTION.  WILL SEE QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE
EARLY SATURDAY...SO TEMPS WILL REBOUND TO THE 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS
EXCEPT THE LOWER-MID 70S ALONG S COASTAL AREAS.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING...THEN
REACHES THE S COAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECT CHANCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. STILL SOME TIMING ISSUES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF
BUT A BIT BETTER FOR THIS TIMEFRAME. WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE
FRONT...EXPECT SCT PRECIP TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUN NIGHT.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...SOMEWHAT LOWER CONFIDENCE DUE TO TIMING AND
PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES WITH THE FRONT AND WHETHER IT STALLS NEAR THE
S COAST OR OFFSHORE. AT THIS POINT...KEPT CHANCE POPS ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH MIDDAY THEN SHOULD PUSH JUST OFFSHORE BUT
MAY LINGER ACROSS THE ISLANDS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY SUNDAY. MAY
SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS EARLY...THEN INSTABILITY WORKS OFFSHORE BUT
COULD STILL SEE SOME SHOWERS WHILE HIGH PRES MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND.

HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING FOR SOUTHERN AREAS INTO TUESDAY
AS FRONT LOOKS TO LINGER...THEN MAY TRY TO MAKE A RUN BACK NE AS THE
HIGH PUSHES OFF INTO THE GULF OF MAINE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

BEFORE 12Z...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. COULD SEE IFR CIGS AND VSBYS
ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE AND ISLANDS. OTHERWISE VFR.

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR/MVFR ALONG THE SOUTH COAST
WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION IS VFR. WESTERN SITES COULD DROP
TO MVFR WITHIN ANY -SHRA/-TSRA THAT DEVELOPS. EXPECT SW WINDS TO
GUST UP TO 20-30 KT AT TIMES MAINLY ACROSS RI/SE MA.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO IFR
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS AS MARITIME FOG AND
STRATUS ROLL IN.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE
REGION SWITCHING THE SOUTHERLY WINDS TO THE WEST DURING THE DAY.
IFR...FOG AND STRATUS IS POSSIBLE BEFORE FRONTAL PASSAGE ALONG SE
TAF SITES. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS/T-STORMS ALONG THE FRONT
DROPPING CONDITIONS TO MVFR. OTHERWISE VFR WILL PREVAIL.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. COULD SEE CONDITIONS DROP
TO MVFR WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORM TODAY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY...VFR. MAY SEE LOCAL MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS EARLY FRI MORNING
ALONG S COAST IN PATCHY FOG...THEN WILL LOWER AGAIN LATE FRI
NIGHT/SAT MORNING TO MVFR-IFR.

SATURDAY...PATCHY FOG EARLY SAT MORNING WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE. SCT SHRA/TSRA SAT THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH LOCAL MVFR-
IFR CONDITIONS. SW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KT MAINLY ALONG THE COAST
SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING.

SUNDAY...SCT SHOWERS TSTMS LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD END
SUN NIGHT. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE UP THROUGH TONIGHT...MAINLY ON THE
OUTER WATERS FOR SEAS AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. SEAS WILL CLIMB TO
5 FEET AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE PERIOD. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
WILL EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT FOR THE INNER WATERS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL DIMINISH...BUT MAY LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET.

IN ADDITION...AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ON THE
WATERS TONIGHT...SUBSTANTIALLY REDUCING VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY...EXPECT SW WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KT. SEAS BUILD TO
AROUND 5 FT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS TO THE OUTER WATERS E OF CAPE
COD...BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT THU NIGHT. VSBYS REDUCED IN
AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DENSE OFFSHORE BOTH THU AND FRI NIGHTS.

FRIDAY...LIGHT N-NE WINDS BECOME E DURING THE DAY...THEN SHIFT TO
S-SW FRI NIGHT. EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SW WINDS MAY BRIEFLY GUST TO 25 KT DURING SAT ON
THE EASTERN WATERS...OTHERWISE EXPECT GUSTS UP TO 20 KT SEAS BUILD
AGAIN TO AROUND 5 FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS...WHICH WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE LATE SUN OR SUN NIGHT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ235-237-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/EVT
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...DUNTEN/EVT
MARINE...RLG/EVT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 270545
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
145 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE THROUGH TOMORROW.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY...
WITH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY HAVING THE HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

200 AM UPDATE...

SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION STREAMING IN HIGHER
DEWPOINTS...MOISTENING UP THE PROFILE. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD
TO FOG DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE AND ISLANDS. HOWEVER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT STRATUS WILL DOMINATE
TONIGHT...WITH FOG DEVELOPING TOMORROW. CAN SEE STRATUS ALREADY
DEVELOPING PER LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY.

OTHERWISE TEMPS REMAIN QUITE MILD WITH MUCH OF THE REGION IN THE
UPPER 60S AWAY FROM THE SOUTH COAST. SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TO
REMAIN A TAD GUSTY ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.

OTHERWISE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY DAY FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH
TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 80S IN THE CONNECTICUT AND
MERRIMACK VALLEYS WITH MID 80S ELSEWHERE.  EXCEPTION TO THIS IS
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS WHERE BOTH ONSHORE WINDS
AND PERHAPS LINGERING MARINE STRATUS AND FOG WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM CLIMBING.  EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S IN THESE
LOCATIONS.

THIS LOOKS LIKE THE BETTER DAY FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  HOWEVER...THIS DOESN/T APPEAR TO OCCUR
UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  INSTABILITY IS A BIT BETTER THAN
IT WAS TODAY BUT IS STILL SOMEWHAT LACKING AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
LEAVE PLENTY TO BE DESIRED.  THE MAIN FOCUS FOR STORMS WILL BE OVER
NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA WHERE THE BETTER INSTABILITY AND FOCUSING
WILL BE.  THESE STORMS...MUCH LIKE TODAY...WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN PART OF THE CWA TOWARDS THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
WHILE THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE...THE
MOST LIKELY THREATS WITH THESE STORMS ARE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY
WINDS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST
INTO THE EVENING AS WIND SHEAR INCREASES WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
MOVING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  ANOTHER WARM NIGHT IN STORE WITH
LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

TO START OFF...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES KEEP OVERALL UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER 48...WITH RIDGING ALONG OR
JUST E OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND TROUGHING ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO
THE SOUTHWEST. MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL SLOW DEAMPLIFICATION
OF THE UPPER PATTERN GOING INTO THIS WEEKEND...WITH RIDGE AXIS
FLATTENING OUT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AS A SURFACE FRONT THAT TRIES TO
WORK ACROSS THE REGION WASHES OUT DURING FRIDAY. BERMUDA HIGH RE-
ESTABLISHES FOR EARLY THIS WEEKEND WHILE ANOTHER FRONT WORKS SE OUT
OF QUEBEC. THIS FRONT LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH TO WORK SLOWLY SE AS THE
WESTERN ATLC RIDGE SHIFTS S AND UPPER TROUGHING TAKES OVER ACROSS
THE NORTHERN STREAM. BIG QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER THE FRONT WILL
CLEAR OFF THE S COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK OR WILL IT STALL CLOSER TO OR
OVER SOUTHERN AREAS.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...
THOUGH DID LEAN TOWARD MORE TOWARD THE ENSEMBLES FROM THIS WEEKEND
ONWARD DUE TO TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT. FOR THE
LATTER TIMEFRAME...LEANED CLOSER TO THE SLOWER ECMWF AND ECENS
MEANS.

DETAILS...

THURSDAY...WILL SEE LEFTOVER SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS WESTERN AREAS
THU MORNING WITH PWATS ON ORDER OF AROUND 1.5 INCHES. THE FRONT
SHIFTS S TAKING THE HIGHER PWAT AIR WITH IT...SO EXPECT THE PRECIP
TO TEND TO WEAKEN THOUGH WILL LINGER WHERE MILDER TEMPS ARE THANKS
TO DIURNAL INFLUENCES. INSTABILITY ALSO SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND WEAKENS
SO EXPECT ANY THUNDERSTORMS TO TAPER OFF BY AROUND MIDDAY. BEST SHOT
FOR PRECIP WILL BE FROM THE MERRIMACK VALLEY SE ACROSS CENTRAL MA TO
THE MID AND LOWER CT VALLEY. CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW QUICK DOWNPOURS
THROUGH MIDDAY WITH THE HIGHER PWAT AIRMASS. WILL SEE AREAS OF
FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...DEVELOP ACROSS S COASTAL AREAS THU NIGHT INTO
FRI MORNING.

FRIDAY...MODELS STARTED TO SIGNAL DRIER AIR WORKING IN ON MONDAY...
BUT MOST OF THE MODEL SUITE HAS HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDING S OUT OF
QUEBEC SO EXPECT A DRY BUT MILD DAY. DEWPTS DROP A BIT...DOWN TO THE
50S...BUT WILL BEGIN TO RISE AGAIN FRI NIGHT. WILL SEE A LIGHT E-SE
WIND FLOW SO WILL BE COOLER ALONG THE COAST...HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
70S EXCEPT 65-70 ACROSS COASTAL AREAS...RANGING TO THE LOWER TO MID
80S ACROSS THE CT VALLEY.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REPOSITIONS OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD SO SW
WINDS KICK IN AGAIN BRINGING A RETURN TO MORE HUMID AIR. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT START TO APPROACH OUT OF GREAT LAKES AND WESTERN QUEBEC.
ALSO NOTING INCREASING INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...
WITH K INDICES RISING TO THE LOWER-MID 30S AND TQ VALUES IN THE
UPPER TEENS SO COULD SEE SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION WHICH COULD LAST
INTO SAT NIGHT. BEST LIFT MOVES CLOSER DURING LATE SAT/SAT NIGHT SO
WILL SEE SCT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. A PWAT SWATH OF 1.6 TO
1.75 INCHES PUSHES OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SO MAY SEE SOME HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS WITH ANY CONVECTION.  WILL SEE QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE
EARLY SATURDAY...SO TEMPS WILL REBOUND TO THE 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS
EXCEPT THE LOWER-MID 70S ALONG S COASTAL AREAS.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING...THEN
REACHES THE S COAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECT CHANCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. STILL SOME TIMING ISSUES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF
BUT A BIT BETTER FOR THIS TIMEFRAME. WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE
FRONT...EXPECT SCT PRECIP TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUN NIGHT.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...SOMEWHAT LOWER CONFIDENCE DUE TO TIMING AND
PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES WITH THE FRONT AND WHETHER IT STALLS NEAR THE
S COAST OR OFFSHORE. AT THIS POINT...KEPT CHANCE POPS ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH MIDDAY THEN SHOULD PUSH JUST OFFSHORE BUT
MAY LINGER ACROSS THE ISLANDS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY SUNDAY. MAY
SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS EARLY...THEN INSTABILITY WORKS OFFSHORE BUT
COULD STILL SEE SOME SHOWERS WHILE HIGH PRES MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND.

HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING FOR SOUTHERN AREAS INTO TUESDAY
AS FRONT LOOKS TO LINGER...THEN MAY TRY TO MAKE A RUN BACK NE AS THE
HIGH PUSHES OFF INTO THE GULF OF MAINE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

BEFORE 12Z...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. COULD SEE IFR CIGS AND VSBYS
ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE AND ISLANDS. OTHERWISE VFR.

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR/MVFR ALONG THE SOUTH COAST
WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION IS VFR. WESTERN SITES COULD DROP
TO MVFR WITHIN ANY -SHRA/-TSRA THAT DEVELOPS. EXPECT SW WINDS TO
GUST UP TO 20-30 KT AT TIMES MAINLY ACROSS RI/SE MA.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO IFR
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS AS MARITIME FOG AND
STRATUS ROLL IN.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE
REGION SWITCHING THE SOUTHERLY WINDS TO THE WEST DURING THE DAY.
IFR...FOG AND STRATUS IS POSSIBLE BEFORE FRONTAL PASSAGE ALONG SE
TAF SITES. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS/T-STORMS ALONG THE FRONT
DROPPING CONDITIONS TO MVFR. OTHERWISE VFR WILL PREVAIL.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. COULD SEE CONDITIONS DROP
TO MVFR WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORM TODAY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY...VFR. MAY SEE LOCAL MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS EARLY FRI MORNING
ALONG S COAST IN PATCHY FOG...THEN WILL LOWER AGAIN LATE FRI
NIGHT/SAT MORNING TO MVFR-IFR.

SATURDAY...PATCHY FOG EARLY SAT MORNING WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE. SCT SHRA/TSRA SAT THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH LOCAL MVFR-
IFR CONDITIONS. SW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KT MAINLY ALONG THE COAST
SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING.

SUNDAY...SCT SHOWERS TSTMS LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD END
SUN NIGHT. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE UP THROUGH TONIGHT...MAINLY ON THE
OUTER WATERS FOR SEAS AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. SEAS WILL CLIMB TO
5 FEET AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE PERIOD. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
WILL EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT FOR THE INNER WATERS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL DIMINISH...BUT MAY LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET.

IN ADDITION...AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ON THE
WATERS TONIGHT...SUBSTANTIALLY REDUCING VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY...EXPECT SW WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KT. SEAS BUILD TO
AROUND 5 FT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS TO THE OUTER WATERS E OF CAPE
COD...BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT THU NIGHT. VSBYS REDUCED IN
AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DENSE OFFSHORE BOTH THU AND FRI NIGHTS.

FRIDAY...LIGHT N-NE WINDS BECOME E DURING THE DAY...THEN SHIFT TO
S-SW FRI NIGHT. EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SW WINDS MAY BRIEFLY GUST TO 25 KT DURING SAT ON
THE EASTERN WATERS...OTHERWISE EXPECT GUSTS UP TO 20 KT SEAS BUILD
AGAIN TO AROUND 5 FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS...WHICH WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE LATE SUN OR SUN NIGHT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ235-237-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/EVT
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...DUNTEN/EVT
MARINE...RLG/EVT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 270545
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
145 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE THROUGH TOMORROW.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY...
WITH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY HAVING THE HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

200 AM UPDATE...

SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION STREAMING IN HIGHER
DEWPOINTS...MOISTENING UP THE PROFILE. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD
TO FOG DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE AND ISLANDS. HOWEVER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT STRATUS WILL DOMINATE
TONIGHT...WITH FOG DEVELOPING TOMORROW. CAN SEE STRATUS ALREADY
DEVELOPING PER LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY.

OTHERWISE TEMPS REMAIN QUITE MILD WITH MUCH OF THE REGION IN THE
UPPER 60S AWAY FROM THE SOUTH COAST. SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TO
REMAIN A TAD GUSTY ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.

OTHERWISE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY DAY FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH
TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 80S IN THE CONNECTICUT AND
MERRIMACK VALLEYS WITH MID 80S ELSEWHERE.  EXCEPTION TO THIS IS
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS WHERE BOTH ONSHORE WINDS
AND PERHAPS LINGERING MARINE STRATUS AND FOG WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM CLIMBING.  EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S IN THESE
LOCATIONS.

THIS LOOKS LIKE THE BETTER DAY FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  HOWEVER...THIS DOESN/T APPEAR TO OCCUR
UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  INSTABILITY IS A BIT BETTER THAN
IT WAS TODAY BUT IS STILL SOMEWHAT LACKING AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
LEAVE PLENTY TO BE DESIRED.  THE MAIN FOCUS FOR STORMS WILL BE OVER
NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA WHERE THE BETTER INSTABILITY AND FOCUSING
WILL BE.  THESE STORMS...MUCH LIKE TODAY...WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN PART OF THE CWA TOWARDS THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
WHILE THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE...THE
MOST LIKELY THREATS WITH THESE STORMS ARE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY
WINDS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST
INTO THE EVENING AS WIND SHEAR INCREASES WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
MOVING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  ANOTHER WARM NIGHT IN STORE WITH
LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

TO START OFF...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES KEEP OVERALL UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER 48...WITH RIDGING ALONG OR
JUST E OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND TROUGHING ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO
THE SOUTHWEST. MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL SLOW DEAMPLIFICATION
OF THE UPPER PATTERN GOING INTO THIS WEEKEND...WITH RIDGE AXIS
FLATTENING OUT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AS A SURFACE FRONT THAT TRIES TO
WORK ACROSS THE REGION WASHES OUT DURING FRIDAY. BERMUDA HIGH RE-
ESTABLISHES FOR EARLY THIS WEEKEND WHILE ANOTHER FRONT WORKS SE OUT
OF QUEBEC. THIS FRONT LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH TO WORK SLOWLY SE AS THE
WESTERN ATLC RIDGE SHIFTS S AND UPPER TROUGHING TAKES OVER ACROSS
THE NORTHERN STREAM. BIG QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER THE FRONT WILL
CLEAR OFF THE S COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK OR WILL IT STALL CLOSER TO OR
OVER SOUTHERN AREAS.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...
THOUGH DID LEAN TOWARD MORE TOWARD THE ENSEMBLES FROM THIS WEEKEND
ONWARD DUE TO TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT. FOR THE
LATTER TIMEFRAME...LEANED CLOSER TO THE SLOWER ECMWF AND ECENS
MEANS.

DETAILS...

THURSDAY...WILL SEE LEFTOVER SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS WESTERN AREAS
THU MORNING WITH PWATS ON ORDER OF AROUND 1.5 INCHES. THE FRONT
SHIFTS S TAKING THE HIGHER PWAT AIR WITH IT...SO EXPECT THE PRECIP
TO TEND TO WEAKEN THOUGH WILL LINGER WHERE MILDER TEMPS ARE THANKS
TO DIURNAL INFLUENCES. INSTABILITY ALSO SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND WEAKENS
SO EXPECT ANY THUNDERSTORMS TO TAPER OFF BY AROUND MIDDAY. BEST SHOT
FOR PRECIP WILL BE FROM THE MERRIMACK VALLEY SE ACROSS CENTRAL MA TO
THE MID AND LOWER CT VALLEY. CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW QUICK DOWNPOURS
THROUGH MIDDAY WITH THE HIGHER PWAT AIRMASS. WILL SEE AREAS OF
FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...DEVELOP ACROSS S COASTAL AREAS THU NIGHT INTO
FRI MORNING.

FRIDAY...MODELS STARTED TO SIGNAL DRIER AIR WORKING IN ON MONDAY...
BUT MOST OF THE MODEL SUITE HAS HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDING S OUT OF
QUEBEC SO EXPECT A DRY BUT MILD DAY. DEWPTS DROP A BIT...DOWN TO THE
50S...BUT WILL BEGIN TO RISE AGAIN FRI NIGHT. WILL SEE A LIGHT E-SE
WIND FLOW SO WILL BE COOLER ALONG THE COAST...HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
70S EXCEPT 65-70 ACROSS COASTAL AREAS...RANGING TO THE LOWER TO MID
80S ACROSS THE CT VALLEY.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REPOSITIONS OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD SO SW
WINDS KICK IN AGAIN BRINGING A RETURN TO MORE HUMID AIR. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT START TO APPROACH OUT OF GREAT LAKES AND WESTERN QUEBEC.
ALSO NOTING INCREASING INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...
WITH K INDICES RISING TO THE LOWER-MID 30S AND TQ VALUES IN THE
UPPER TEENS SO COULD SEE SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION WHICH COULD LAST
INTO SAT NIGHT. BEST LIFT MOVES CLOSER DURING LATE SAT/SAT NIGHT SO
WILL SEE SCT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. A PWAT SWATH OF 1.6 TO
1.75 INCHES PUSHES OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SO MAY SEE SOME HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS WITH ANY CONVECTION.  WILL SEE QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE
EARLY SATURDAY...SO TEMPS WILL REBOUND TO THE 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS
EXCEPT THE LOWER-MID 70S ALONG S COASTAL AREAS.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING...THEN
REACHES THE S COAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECT CHANCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. STILL SOME TIMING ISSUES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF
BUT A BIT BETTER FOR THIS TIMEFRAME. WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE
FRONT...EXPECT SCT PRECIP TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUN NIGHT.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...SOMEWHAT LOWER CONFIDENCE DUE TO TIMING AND
PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES WITH THE FRONT AND WHETHER IT STALLS NEAR THE
S COAST OR OFFSHORE. AT THIS POINT...KEPT CHANCE POPS ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH MIDDAY THEN SHOULD PUSH JUST OFFSHORE BUT
MAY LINGER ACROSS THE ISLANDS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY SUNDAY. MAY
SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS EARLY...THEN INSTABILITY WORKS OFFSHORE BUT
COULD STILL SEE SOME SHOWERS WHILE HIGH PRES MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND.

HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING FOR SOUTHERN AREAS INTO TUESDAY
AS FRONT LOOKS TO LINGER...THEN MAY TRY TO MAKE A RUN BACK NE AS THE
HIGH PUSHES OFF INTO THE GULF OF MAINE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

BEFORE 12Z...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. COULD SEE IFR CIGS AND VSBYS
ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE AND ISLANDS. OTHERWISE VFR.

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR/MVFR ALONG THE SOUTH COAST
WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION IS VFR. WESTERN SITES COULD DROP
TO MVFR WITHIN ANY -SHRA/-TSRA THAT DEVELOPS. EXPECT SW WINDS TO
GUST UP TO 20-30 KT AT TIMES MAINLY ACROSS RI/SE MA.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO IFR
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS AS MARITIME FOG AND
STRATUS ROLL IN.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE
REGION SWITCHING THE SOUTHERLY WINDS TO THE WEST DURING THE DAY.
IFR...FOG AND STRATUS IS POSSIBLE BEFORE FRONTAL PASSAGE ALONG SE
TAF SITES. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS/T-STORMS ALONG THE FRONT
DROPPING CONDITIONS TO MVFR. OTHERWISE VFR WILL PREVAIL.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. COULD SEE CONDITIONS DROP
TO MVFR WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORM TODAY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY...VFR. MAY SEE LOCAL MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS EARLY FRI MORNING
ALONG S COAST IN PATCHY FOG...THEN WILL LOWER AGAIN LATE FRI
NIGHT/SAT MORNING TO MVFR-IFR.

SATURDAY...PATCHY FOG EARLY SAT MORNING WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE. SCT SHRA/TSRA SAT THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH LOCAL MVFR-
IFR CONDITIONS. SW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KT MAINLY ALONG THE COAST
SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING.

SUNDAY...SCT SHOWERS TSTMS LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD END
SUN NIGHT. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE UP THROUGH TONIGHT...MAINLY ON THE
OUTER WATERS FOR SEAS AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. SEAS WILL CLIMB TO
5 FEET AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE PERIOD. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
WILL EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT FOR THE INNER WATERS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL DIMINISH...BUT MAY LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET.

IN ADDITION...AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ON THE
WATERS TONIGHT...SUBSTANTIALLY REDUCING VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY...EXPECT SW WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KT. SEAS BUILD TO
AROUND 5 FT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS TO THE OUTER WATERS E OF CAPE
COD...BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT THU NIGHT. VSBYS REDUCED IN
AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DENSE OFFSHORE BOTH THU AND FRI NIGHTS.

FRIDAY...LIGHT N-NE WINDS BECOME E DURING THE DAY...THEN SHIFT TO
S-SW FRI NIGHT. EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SW WINDS MAY BRIEFLY GUST TO 25 KT DURING SAT ON
THE EASTERN WATERS...OTHERWISE EXPECT GUSTS UP TO 20 KT SEAS BUILD
AGAIN TO AROUND 5 FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS...WHICH WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE LATE SUN OR SUN NIGHT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ235-237-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/EVT
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...DUNTEN/EVT
MARINE...RLG/EVT



000
FXUS61 KALY 270521
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
121 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL FUNNEL WARM
AND HUMID AIR ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TODAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
AND A SURFACE TROUGH MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.  A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH ON THURSDAY WITH A BRIEF BREAK WITH DRY WEATHER FOR FRIDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 121 AM EDT...A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IS OVER THE
FCST AREA THIS MORNING WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S TO M70S. VARIABLY
CLOUDINESS CONTINUES AS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM IN
FROM THE W/SW ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTION OVER ERN OH AND WRN
PA. THE SHORT-WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPSTREAM CONVECTION...AND
ITS ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY
SEVERE CONVECTION LATER TODAY /MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON/. WITH THIS
UPDATE HAVE INCREASED TEMPS A FEW DEGS IN THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL
REGION WITH THE CLOUDS AND SRLY SFC FLOW PERSISTING. ALSO BACKED
THE POPS OFF LATER TONIGHT BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR LAYER COLUMN
MAX REF TRENDS. AN ISOLD POP-UP SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NRN
TIER...SRN DACKS...LAKE GEORGE REGION....SRN VT. ONE OCCURRED
AROUND AN HOUR AGO. THE POPS START TO INCREASE AGAIN IN THE LATER
MORNING AS THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC
TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACH FROM THE W/SW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR MOST OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED
MOST OF OUR REGION WITHIN THE SLIGHT RISK CATEGORY ON WEDNESDAY.
THE COMBINATION OF A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE WITH PWATS CLIMBING IN
EXCESS OF 1.75 INCHES...SURFACE DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S...SOME
GRADUAL HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS FOR
ENHANCING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO INTERACT WITH INCREASING
BUOYANCY AS SBCAPES CLIMB TOWARD 2K J/KG...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL IS ON THE INCREASE. A DEPARTING UPPER JET WITH ENTRANCE
REGION DYNAMICS AND SHEAR PROFILES INCREASING TO AROUND 30KTS
SHOULD RESULT IN SOME ORGANIZATION. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW
MUCH INSOLATION WE WILL RECEIVE AS THE NCEP MODEL SUITE DOES
SUGGEST AMPLE MOISTURE...ALTHOUGH...MODELS DO TEND TO
OVERESTIMATE. SO WE WILL ADD SOME ENHANCED WORDING TO THE
FORECAST/GRIDS AT THIS TIME. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...MOS GUIDANCE IS
WARMER ON THE MET MOS THAN THE MAV MOS...WE WILL FAVOR THE WARMER
SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

THE FRONTAL AXIS IS PROGGED TO BE OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING
THE EVENING WITH A DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE
CONVECTION AT THAT TIME. HOWEVER...THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND
MAIN UPPER TROUGH HAS YET TO APPROACH SO WE WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS
IN THE GRIDS OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY. IN
FACT...TRENDS IN THE 12Z GUIDANCE ARE A LITTLE FASTER WITH THESE
FEATURES WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. AS FOR THURSDAY HIGHS...AN ENSEMBLE
APPROACH OF THE H850 THERMAL FIELDS SUGGEST COLD ADVECTION WILL BE
OCCURRING THROUGH THE DAY WITH LESS THAN 10C FOR THE DACKS. WE
WILL THEREFORE KEEP TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 65-70F FOR THESE AREAS
AND KEEP 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN MAGNITUDES AS
GUSTS WELL INTO THE 20KTS ARE EXPECTED.

SUBSIDENCE INCREASES QUICKLY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH RISING SURFACE
PRESSURES AND A MUCH DRIER ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN ADVECTING INTO THE
REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE CLEARING SKIES...DIMINISHING WINDS AND
A MORE COMFORTABLE NIGHT AS LOWS DIP BACK INTO THE 50S FOR MOST OF
THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRI-SAT SHOULD TREND BACK TO NEAR...OR
POSSIBLY EVEN A BIT BELOW NORMAL BY SUN-TUE...AS THE EAST COAST
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEAMPLIFIES WITH THE APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
FROM SOUTHERN CANADA. AS IT DEAMPLIFIES...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION SOMETIME LATE SAT OR EARLY SUN. THIS SHOULD BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. DEPENDING ON ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE INCOMING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES/SE CANADA...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE COLD
FRONT SLOWS DOWN AND/OR A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG IT AND TRACKS SOUTH OF
THE REGION. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...SHOWERS OR EVEN A PERIOD OF STEADY
RAIN COULD LINGER IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR SUN INTO EARLY
MON...ESP ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.

SO...INITIALLY EXPECT DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY AS UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE ONCE AGAIN. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE
MODERATE...SO DESPITE MAX TEMPS REACHING THE MID/UPPER 80S IN
PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...APPARENT TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY
REMAIN BELOW 90. FRI NT/SAT AM SHOULD REMAIN DRY...BUT WARM...WITH
MIN TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 60S FOR MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND 55-60 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

FOR SAT-MON...THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT SHOULD APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATER SAT...AND SLOWLY PRESS SOUTH AND EAST SAT NT INTO
EARLY SUN. WILL INDICATE HIGH CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS FOR
SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR SAT AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...GRADUALLY TAPERING
DOWNWARD FROM NW TO SE ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST THE FRONT REACHES...AND WHETHER A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO
LOW CHC FOR MOST CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS INTO MON. MAX TEMPS
SHOULD BE RATHER WARM SAT...WITH TEMPS REACHING 85-90 IN VALLEYS AND
LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. DEWPOINTS SHOULD RISE INTO
THE LOWER 60S...SO APPARENT TEMPS SHOULD BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
ACTUAL HIGH TEMPS OF 85-90. SAT NT/SUN AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
50S TO LOWER 60S...THEN EXPECT COOLER MAX TEMPS FOR SUN INTO
MON...WITH MAXES MAINLY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S SUN...AND MAINLY 60S
FOR MON. SUN NT/MON AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

MON NT-TUE...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACHES. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO LOW
CHC POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. MON
NT/TUE AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S...WITH TUE
MAX TEMPS REACHING 70-75 FOR MOST VALLEYS...AND 65-70 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL MAINTAIN A WARM
AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...ESP FOR
KPOU AND KPSF.

A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING WILL BE AT KPOU AND KPSF. THERE COULD BE BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITHIN ANY HEAVIER DOWNPOURS.

AFTER SUNSET...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD WEAKEN.
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAINFALL OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...THERE COULD BE AREAS OF MVFR OR BORDERLINE IFR CIGS/VSBYS
LATER TONIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT KPSF.

ON WEDNESDAY...AFTER ANY PATCHY LOW CLOUDS/FOG BURN OFF...EXPECT
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z/WED. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP AFTER 18Z/WED...WITH INCREASING CHANCES THEREAFTER. FOR
NOW HAVE PLACED -SHRA IN TAFS AFT 18Z.

WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AT MAINLY
5-10 KT. ON WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND
INCREASE TO 8-12 KT...WITH GUSTS OF 15-22 KT ONCE AGAIN BY LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE STRONGER...AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION IN AND NEAR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WED TO WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

FRIDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS IN THE 50S.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...MAINLY ON WEDNESDAY.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED MODERATE
DROUGHT AT THIS TIME.

WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE BETTER AND MORE
WIDESPREAD CHANCES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INT0 THE EVENING.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.75+ INCHES ARE EXPECTED SO STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...KL/WASULA
AVIATION...KL/11
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM



000
FXUS61 KALY 270521
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
121 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL FUNNEL WARM
AND HUMID AIR ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TODAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
AND A SURFACE TROUGH MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.  A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH ON THURSDAY WITH A BRIEF BREAK WITH DRY WEATHER FOR FRIDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 121 AM EDT...A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IS OVER THE
FCST AREA THIS MORNING WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S TO M70S. VARIABLY
CLOUDINESS CONTINUES AS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM IN
FROM THE W/SW ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTION OVER ERN OH AND WRN
PA. THE SHORT-WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPSTREAM CONVECTION...AND
ITS ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY
SEVERE CONVECTION LATER TODAY /MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON/. WITH THIS
UPDATE HAVE INCREASED TEMPS A FEW DEGS IN THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL
REGION WITH THE CLOUDS AND SRLY SFC FLOW PERSISTING. ALSO BACKED
THE POPS OFF LATER TONIGHT BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR LAYER COLUMN
MAX REF TRENDS. AN ISOLD POP-UP SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NRN
TIER...SRN DACKS...LAKE GEORGE REGION....SRN VT. ONE OCCURRED
AROUND AN HOUR AGO. THE POPS START TO INCREASE AGAIN IN THE LATER
MORNING AS THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC
TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACH FROM THE W/SW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR MOST OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED
MOST OF OUR REGION WITHIN THE SLIGHT RISK CATEGORY ON WEDNESDAY.
THE COMBINATION OF A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE WITH PWATS CLIMBING IN
EXCESS OF 1.75 INCHES...SURFACE DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S...SOME
GRADUAL HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS FOR
ENHANCING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO INTERACT WITH INCREASING
BUOYANCY AS SBCAPES CLIMB TOWARD 2K J/KG...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL IS ON THE INCREASE. A DEPARTING UPPER JET WITH ENTRANCE
REGION DYNAMICS AND SHEAR PROFILES INCREASING TO AROUND 30KTS
SHOULD RESULT IN SOME ORGANIZATION. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW
MUCH INSOLATION WE WILL RECEIVE AS THE NCEP MODEL SUITE DOES
SUGGEST AMPLE MOISTURE...ALTHOUGH...MODELS DO TEND TO
OVERESTIMATE. SO WE WILL ADD SOME ENHANCED WORDING TO THE
FORECAST/GRIDS AT THIS TIME. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...MOS GUIDANCE IS
WARMER ON THE MET MOS THAN THE MAV MOS...WE WILL FAVOR THE WARMER
SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

THE FRONTAL AXIS IS PROGGED TO BE OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING
THE EVENING WITH A DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE
CONVECTION AT THAT TIME. HOWEVER...THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND
MAIN UPPER TROUGH HAS YET TO APPROACH SO WE WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS
IN THE GRIDS OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY. IN
FACT...TRENDS IN THE 12Z GUIDANCE ARE A LITTLE FASTER WITH THESE
FEATURES WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. AS FOR THURSDAY HIGHS...AN ENSEMBLE
APPROACH OF THE H850 THERMAL FIELDS SUGGEST COLD ADVECTION WILL BE
OCCURRING THROUGH THE DAY WITH LESS THAN 10C FOR THE DACKS. WE
WILL THEREFORE KEEP TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 65-70F FOR THESE AREAS
AND KEEP 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN MAGNITUDES AS
GUSTS WELL INTO THE 20KTS ARE EXPECTED.

SUBSIDENCE INCREASES QUICKLY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH RISING SURFACE
PRESSURES AND A MUCH DRIER ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN ADVECTING INTO THE
REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE CLEARING SKIES...DIMINISHING WINDS AND
A MORE COMFORTABLE NIGHT AS LOWS DIP BACK INTO THE 50S FOR MOST OF
THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRI-SAT SHOULD TREND BACK TO NEAR...OR
POSSIBLY EVEN A BIT BELOW NORMAL BY SUN-TUE...AS THE EAST COAST
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEAMPLIFIES WITH THE APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
FROM SOUTHERN CANADA. AS IT DEAMPLIFIES...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION SOMETIME LATE SAT OR EARLY SUN. THIS SHOULD BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. DEPENDING ON ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE INCOMING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES/SE CANADA...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE COLD
FRONT SLOWS DOWN AND/OR A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG IT AND TRACKS SOUTH OF
THE REGION. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...SHOWERS OR EVEN A PERIOD OF STEADY
RAIN COULD LINGER IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR SUN INTO EARLY
MON...ESP ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.

SO...INITIALLY EXPECT DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY AS UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE ONCE AGAIN. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE
MODERATE...SO DESPITE MAX TEMPS REACHING THE MID/UPPER 80S IN
PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...APPARENT TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY
REMAIN BELOW 90. FRI NT/SAT AM SHOULD REMAIN DRY...BUT WARM...WITH
MIN TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 60S FOR MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND 55-60 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

FOR SAT-MON...THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT SHOULD APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATER SAT...AND SLOWLY PRESS SOUTH AND EAST SAT NT INTO
EARLY SUN. WILL INDICATE HIGH CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS FOR
SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR SAT AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...GRADUALLY TAPERING
DOWNWARD FROM NW TO SE ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST THE FRONT REACHES...AND WHETHER A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO
LOW CHC FOR MOST CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS INTO MON. MAX TEMPS
SHOULD BE RATHER WARM SAT...WITH TEMPS REACHING 85-90 IN VALLEYS AND
LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. DEWPOINTS SHOULD RISE INTO
THE LOWER 60S...SO APPARENT TEMPS SHOULD BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
ACTUAL HIGH TEMPS OF 85-90. SAT NT/SUN AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
50S TO LOWER 60S...THEN EXPECT COOLER MAX TEMPS FOR SUN INTO
MON...WITH MAXES MAINLY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S SUN...AND MAINLY 60S
FOR MON. SUN NT/MON AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

MON NT-TUE...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACHES. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO LOW
CHC POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. MON
NT/TUE AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S...WITH TUE
MAX TEMPS REACHING 70-75 FOR MOST VALLEYS...AND 65-70 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL MAINTAIN A WARM
AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...ESP FOR
KPOU AND KPSF.

A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING WILL BE AT KPOU AND KPSF. THERE COULD BE BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITHIN ANY HEAVIER DOWNPOURS.

AFTER SUNSET...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD WEAKEN.
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAINFALL OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...THERE COULD BE AREAS OF MVFR OR BORDERLINE IFR CIGS/VSBYS
LATER TONIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT KPSF.

ON WEDNESDAY...AFTER ANY PATCHY LOW CLOUDS/FOG BURN OFF...EXPECT
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z/WED. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP AFTER 18Z/WED...WITH INCREASING CHANCES THEREAFTER. FOR
NOW HAVE PLACED -SHRA IN TAFS AFT 18Z.

WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AT MAINLY
5-10 KT. ON WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND
INCREASE TO 8-12 KT...WITH GUSTS OF 15-22 KT ONCE AGAIN BY LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE STRONGER...AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION IN AND NEAR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WED TO WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

FRIDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS IN THE 50S.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...MAINLY ON WEDNESDAY.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED MODERATE
DROUGHT AT THIS TIME.

WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE BETTER AND MORE
WIDESPREAD CHANCES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INT0 THE EVENING.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.75+ INCHES ARE EXPECTED SO STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...KL/WASULA
AVIATION...KL/11
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM



000
FXUS61 KALY 270521
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
121 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL FUNNEL WARM
AND HUMID AIR ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TODAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
AND A SURFACE TROUGH MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.  A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH ON THURSDAY WITH A BRIEF BREAK WITH DRY WEATHER FOR FRIDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 121 AM EDT...A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IS OVER THE
FCST AREA THIS MORNING WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S TO M70S. VARIABLY
CLOUDINESS CONTINUES AS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM IN
FROM THE W/SW ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTION OVER ERN OH AND WRN
PA. THE SHORT-WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPSTREAM CONVECTION...AND
ITS ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY
SEVERE CONVECTION LATER TODAY /MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON/. WITH THIS
UPDATE HAVE INCREASED TEMPS A FEW DEGS IN THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL
REGION WITH THE CLOUDS AND SRLY SFC FLOW PERSISTING. ALSO BACKED
THE POPS OFF LATER TONIGHT BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR LAYER COLUMN
MAX REF TRENDS. AN ISOLD POP-UP SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NRN
TIER...SRN DACKS...LAKE GEORGE REGION....SRN VT. ONE OCCURRED
AROUND AN HOUR AGO. THE POPS START TO INCREASE AGAIN IN THE LATER
MORNING AS THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC
TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACH FROM THE W/SW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR MOST OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED
MOST OF OUR REGION WITHIN THE SLIGHT RISK CATEGORY ON WEDNESDAY.
THE COMBINATION OF A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE WITH PWATS CLIMBING IN
EXCESS OF 1.75 INCHES...SURFACE DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S...SOME
GRADUAL HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS FOR
ENHANCING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO INTERACT WITH INCREASING
BUOYANCY AS SBCAPES CLIMB TOWARD 2K J/KG...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL IS ON THE INCREASE. A DEPARTING UPPER JET WITH ENTRANCE
REGION DYNAMICS AND SHEAR PROFILES INCREASING TO AROUND 30KTS
SHOULD RESULT IN SOME ORGANIZATION. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW
MUCH INSOLATION WE WILL RECEIVE AS THE NCEP MODEL SUITE DOES
SUGGEST AMPLE MOISTURE...ALTHOUGH...MODELS DO TEND TO
OVERESTIMATE. SO WE WILL ADD SOME ENHANCED WORDING TO THE
FORECAST/GRIDS AT THIS TIME. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...MOS GUIDANCE IS
WARMER ON THE MET MOS THAN THE MAV MOS...WE WILL FAVOR THE WARMER
SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

THE FRONTAL AXIS IS PROGGED TO BE OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING
THE EVENING WITH A DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE
CONVECTION AT THAT TIME. HOWEVER...THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND
MAIN UPPER TROUGH HAS YET TO APPROACH SO WE WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS
IN THE GRIDS OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY. IN
FACT...TRENDS IN THE 12Z GUIDANCE ARE A LITTLE FASTER WITH THESE
FEATURES WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. AS FOR THURSDAY HIGHS...AN ENSEMBLE
APPROACH OF THE H850 THERMAL FIELDS SUGGEST COLD ADVECTION WILL BE
OCCURRING THROUGH THE DAY WITH LESS THAN 10C FOR THE DACKS. WE
WILL THEREFORE KEEP TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 65-70F FOR THESE AREAS
AND KEEP 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN MAGNITUDES AS
GUSTS WELL INTO THE 20KTS ARE EXPECTED.

SUBSIDENCE INCREASES QUICKLY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH RISING SURFACE
PRESSURES AND A MUCH DRIER ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN ADVECTING INTO THE
REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE CLEARING SKIES...DIMINISHING WINDS AND
A MORE COMFORTABLE NIGHT AS LOWS DIP BACK INTO THE 50S FOR MOST OF
THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRI-SAT SHOULD TREND BACK TO NEAR...OR
POSSIBLY EVEN A BIT BELOW NORMAL BY SUN-TUE...AS THE EAST COAST
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEAMPLIFIES WITH THE APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
FROM SOUTHERN CANADA. AS IT DEAMPLIFIES...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION SOMETIME LATE SAT OR EARLY SUN. THIS SHOULD BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. DEPENDING ON ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE INCOMING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES/SE CANADA...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE COLD
FRONT SLOWS DOWN AND/OR A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG IT AND TRACKS SOUTH OF
THE REGION. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...SHOWERS OR EVEN A PERIOD OF STEADY
RAIN COULD LINGER IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR SUN INTO EARLY
MON...ESP ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.

SO...INITIALLY EXPECT DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY AS UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE ONCE AGAIN. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE
MODERATE...SO DESPITE MAX TEMPS REACHING THE MID/UPPER 80S IN
PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...APPARENT TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY
REMAIN BELOW 90. FRI NT/SAT AM SHOULD REMAIN DRY...BUT WARM...WITH
MIN TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 60S FOR MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND 55-60 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

FOR SAT-MON...THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT SHOULD APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATER SAT...AND SLOWLY PRESS SOUTH AND EAST SAT NT INTO
EARLY SUN. WILL INDICATE HIGH CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS FOR
SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR SAT AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...GRADUALLY TAPERING
DOWNWARD FROM NW TO SE ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST THE FRONT REACHES...AND WHETHER A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO
LOW CHC FOR MOST CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS INTO MON. MAX TEMPS
SHOULD BE RATHER WARM SAT...WITH TEMPS REACHING 85-90 IN VALLEYS AND
LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. DEWPOINTS SHOULD RISE INTO
THE LOWER 60S...SO APPARENT TEMPS SHOULD BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
ACTUAL HIGH TEMPS OF 85-90. SAT NT/SUN AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
50S TO LOWER 60S...THEN EXPECT COOLER MAX TEMPS FOR SUN INTO
MON...WITH MAXES MAINLY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S SUN...AND MAINLY 60S
FOR MON. SUN NT/MON AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

MON NT-TUE...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACHES. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO LOW
CHC POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. MON
NT/TUE AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S...WITH TUE
MAX TEMPS REACHING 70-75 FOR MOST VALLEYS...AND 65-70 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL MAINTAIN A WARM
AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...ESP FOR
KPOU AND KPSF.

A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING WILL BE AT KPOU AND KPSF. THERE COULD BE BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITHIN ANY HEAVIER DOWNPOURS.

AFTER SUNSET...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD WEAKEN.
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAINFALL OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...THERE COULD BE AREAS OF MVFR OR BORDERLINE IFR CIGS/VSBYS
LATER TONIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT KPSF.

ON WEDNESDAY...AFTER ANY PATCHY LOW CLOUDS/FOG BURN OFF...EXPECT
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z/WED. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP AFTER 18Z/WED...WITH INCREASING CHANCES THEREAFTER. FOR
NOW HAVE PLACED -SHRA IN TAFS AFT 18Z.

WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AT MAINLY
5-10 KT. ON WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND
INCREASE TO 8-12 KT...WITH GUSTS OF 15-22 KT ONCE AGAIN BY LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE STRONGER...AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION IN AND NEAR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WED TO WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

FRIDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS IN THE 50S.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...MAINLY ON WEDNESDAY.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED MODERATE
DROUGHT AT THIS TIME.

WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE BETTER AND MORE
WIDESPREAD CHANCES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INT0 THE EVENING.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.75+ INCHES ARE EXPECTED SO STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...KL/WASULA
AVIATION...KL/11
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM



000
FXUS61 KALY 270521
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
121 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL FUNNEL WARM
AND HUMID AIR ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TODAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
AND A SURFACE TROUGH MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.  A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH ON THURSDAY WITH A BRIEF BREAK WITH DRY WEATHER FOR FRIDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 121 AM EDT...A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IS OVER THE
FCST AREA THIS MORNING WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S TO M70S. VARIABLY
CLOUDINESS CONTINUES AS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM IN
FROM THE W/SW ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTION OVER ERN OH AND WRN
PA. THE SHORT-WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPSTREAM CONVECTION...AND
ITS ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY
SEVERE CONVECTION LATER TODAY /MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON/. WITH THIS
UPDATE HAVE INCREASED TEMPS A FEW DEGS IN THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL
REGION WITH THE CLOUDS AND SRLY SFC FLOW PERSISTING. ALSO BACKED
THE POPS OFF LATER TONIGHT BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR LAYER COLUMN
MAX REF TRENDS. AN ISOLD POP-UP SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NRN
TIER...SRN DACKS...LAKE GEORGE REGION....SRN VT. ONE OCCURRED
AROUND AN HOUR AGO. THE POPS START TO INCREASE AGAIN IN THE LATER
MORNING AS THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC
TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACH FROM THE W/SW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR MOST OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED
MOST OF OUR REGION WITHIN THE SLIGHT RISK CATEGORY ON WEDNESDAY.
THE COMBINATION OF A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE WITH PWATS CLIMBING IN
EXCESS OF 1.75 INCHES...SURFACE DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S...SOME
GRADUAL HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS FOR
ENHANCING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO INTERACT WITH INCREASING
BUOYANCY AS SBCAPES CLIMB TOWARD 2K J/KG...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL IS ON THE INCREASE. A DEPARTING UPPER JET WITH ENTRANCE
REGION DYNAMICS AND SHEAR PROFILES INCREASING TO AROUND 30KTS
SHOULD RESULT IN SOME ORGANIZATION. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW
MUCH INSOLATION WE WILL RECEIVE AS THE NCEP MODEL SUITE DOES
SUGGEST AMPLE MOISTURE...ALTHOUGH...MODELS DO TEND TO
OVERESTIMATE. SO WE WILL ADD SOME ENHANCED WORDING TO THE
FORECAST/GRIDS AT THIS TIME. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...MOS GUIDANCE IS
WARMER ON THE MET MOS THAN THE MAV MOS...WE WILL FAVOR THE WARMER
SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

THE FRONTAL AXIS IS PROGGED TO BE OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING
THE EVENING WITH A DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE
CONVECTION AT THAT TIME. HOWEVER...THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND
MAIN UPPER TROUGH HAS YET TO APPROACH SO WE WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS
IN THE GRIDS OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY. IN
FACT...TRENDS IN THE 12Z GUIDANCE ARE A LITTLE FASTER WITH THESE
FEATURES WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. AS FOR THURSDAY HIGHS...AN ENSEMBLE
APPROACH OF THE H850 THERMAL FIELDS SUGGEST COLD ADVECTION WILL BE
OCCURRING THROUGH THE DAY WITH LESS THAN 10C FOR THE DACKS. WE
WILL THEREFORE KEEP TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 65-70F FOR THESE AREAS
AND KEEP 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN MAGNITUDES AS
GUSTS WELL INTO THE 20KTS ARE EXPECTED.

SUBSIDENCE INCREASES QUICKLY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH RISING SURFACE
PRESSURES AND A MUCH DRIER ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN ADVECTING INTO THE
REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE CLEARING SKIES...DIMINISHING WINDS AND
A MORE COMFORTABLE NIGHT AS LOWS DIP BACK INTO THE 50S FOR MOST OF
THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRI-SAT SHOULD TREND BACK TO NEAR...OR
POSSIBLY EVEN A BIT BELOW NORMAL BY SUN-TUE...AS THE EAST COAST
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEAMPLIFIES WITH THE APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
FROM SOUTHERN CANADA. AS IT DEAMPLIFIES...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION SOMETIME LATE SAT OR EARLY SUN. THIS SHOULD BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. DEPENDING ON ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE INCOMING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES/SE CANADA...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE COLD
FRONT SLOWS DOWN AND/OR A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG IT AND TRACKS SOUTH OF
THE REGION. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...SHOWERS OR EVEN A PERIOD OF STEADY
RAIN COULD LINGER IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR SUN INTO EARLY
MON...ESP ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.

SO...INITIALLY EXPECT DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY AS UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE ONCE AGAIN. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE
MODERATE...SO DESPITE MAX TEMPS REACHING THE MID/UPPER 80S IN
PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...APPARENT TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY
REMAIN BELOW 90. FRI NT/SAT AM SHOULD REMAIN DRY...BUT WARM...WITH
MIN TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 60S FOR MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND 55-60 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

FOR SAT-MON...THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT SHOULD APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATER SAT...AND SLOWLY PRESS SOUTH AND EAST SAT NT INTO
EARLY SUN. WILL INDICATE HIGH CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS FOR
SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR SAT AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...GRADUALLY TAPERING
DOWNWARD FROM NW TO SE ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST THE FRONT REACHES...AND WHETHER A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO
LOW CHC FOR MOST CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS INTO MON. MAX TEMPS
SHOULD BE RATHER WARM SAT...WITH TEMPS REACHING 85-90 IN VALLEYS AND
LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. DEWPOINTS SHOULD RISE INTO
THE LOWER 60S...SO APPARENT TEMPS SHOULD BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
ACTUAL HIGH TEMPS OF 85-90. SAT NT/SUN AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
50S TO LOWER 60S...THEN EXPECT COOLER MAX TEMPS FOR SUN INTO
MON...WITH MAXES MAINLY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S SUN...AND MAINLY 60S
FOR MON. SUN NT/MON AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

MON NT-TUE...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACHES. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO LOW
CHC POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. MON
NT/TUE AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S...WITH TUE
MAX TEMPS REACHING 70-75 FOR MOST VALLEYS...AND 65-70 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL MAINTAIN A WARM
AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...ESP FOR
KPOU AND KPSF.

A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING WILL BE AT KPOU AND KPSF. THERE COULD BE BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITHIN ANY HEAVIER DOWNPOURS.

AFTER SUNSET...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD WEAKEN.
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAINFALL OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...THERE COULD BE AREAS OF MVFR OR BORDERLINE IFR CIGS/VSBYS
LATER TONIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT KPSF.

ON WEDNESDAY...AFTER ANY PATCHY LOW CLOUDS/FOG BURN OFF...EXPECT
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z/WED. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP AFTER 18Z/WED...WITH INCREASING CHANCES THEREAFTER. FOR
NOW HAVE PLACED -SHRA IN TAFS AFT 18Z.

WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AT MAINLY
5-10 KT. ON WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND
INCREASE TO 8-12 KT...WITH GUSTS OF 15-22 KT ONCE AGAIN BY LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE STRONGER...AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION IN AND NEAR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WED TO WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

FRIDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS IN THE 50S.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...MAINLY ON WEDNESDAY.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED MODERATE
DROUGHT AT THIS TIME.

WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE BETTER AND MORE
WIDESPREAD CHANCES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INT0 THE EVENING.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.75+ INCHES ARE EXPECTED SO STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...KL/WASULA
AVIATION...KL/11
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM



000
FXUS61 KOKX 270359
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1159 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS ANCHORED WELL OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH
THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND DISSIPATE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. A
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL THEN IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK. REMOVED POPS OVERNIGHT AS FORCING
LOOKS VERY WEAK.

FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF ORANGE COUNTY WHERE
DEWPOINTS SPIKED INTO THE 70S AFTER THE SHOWERS EXITED. WINDS ARE
CALM AND SHOULD REMAIN THIS WAY...SO ADDED FOG TO THE FORECAST UP
THERE THROUGH THE NIGHT. IT COULD BECOME LOCALLY DENSE AT TIMES.

PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TOWARDS MORNING. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE THAT FOG BECOMES LOCALLY DENSE NEAR THE COAST...BUT IT
REMAINS UNCERTAIN HOW WIDESPREAD THIS WOULD END UP BEING. THERE IS
A GREATER LIKELIHOOD FOR STRATUS TO DEVELOP WITH PERSISTENT
ONSHORE FLOW...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. SKY CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY UNTIL THEN.

LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION INCREASES ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE FURTHER OFFSHORE. THE DEVELOPMENT OF A PRE-
FRONTAL/THERMAL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A SOURCE FOR LIFT IN THE
AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CITY. CAPE VALUES IN THE
MODELS DIFFER IN THE AFTERNOON AND THIS IS DUE TO HOW MUCH HEATING
THEY FORECAST. THE NAM HAS MUCH HIGHER SURFACE BASED CAPE WITH
ITS WARMER SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN COMBINATION WITH DEW POINTS IN
THE MID 60S. FEEL CAPE VALUES MAY BE A BIT TOO HIGH IN THE
NAM...BUT IT HAS THE RIGHT IDEA WITH ITS WARMER TEMPERATURES
LEADING TO HIGHER AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY. ANY MORNING CLOUDS WILL
BREAK LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON TO ALLOW FOR ENOUGH
SUNSHINE TO REALIZE THIS HIGHER INSTABILITY.

SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND LINGER INTO
THE AFTERNOON WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND. SPC HAS THE INTERIOR OF NE
NJ AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. AN ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT
HERE...BUT FEEL STORMS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN ANY STORM WITH URBANIZED MINOR
FLOODING A POSSIBILITY. CHANCE POPS CONTINUE FOR MAINLY WEST OF
THE HUDSON RIVER.

THE QUESTION FOR WEDNESDAY EVENING IS HOW FAR EAST THE CONVECTION
GETS. THE MARINE INFLUENCE AND PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
MOST LIKELY WEAKEN THE STORMS CONSIDERABLY AS THEY MOVE NEAR THE
HUDSON RIVER. NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FORECAST IN THE
EVENING EAST OF THE HUDSON. POPS DO INCREASE TO LOW CHANCE FOR
EASTERN ZONES OVERNIGHT AS THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH REMAINS NEARBY
AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY COULD PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S
FROM NYC NORTH AND WEST AND MAINLY MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S ACROSS
SOUTHERN CT AND LONG ISLAND. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
60S.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS AT
ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL EXPAND
WESTWARD BACK INTO THE MS RIVER VALLEY AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY OVER THE
GREAT LAKES DAMPENS AND LIFTS TO THE NE THU. THIS WILL ALLOW THE
SUB TROPICAL RIDGE TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND...PUMPING IN WARM...HUMID AIR ACROSS THE REGION.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THU BEFORE
DISSIPATING OFFSHORE ON FRI. THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THU EVE...BUT DRY AIR LOOKS TO BE A LIMITING
FACTOR. HEIGHTS BUILD ALOFT FRI INTO SAT WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE
CAPPING THE AIRMASS. ANY CONVECTION WILL BE ISOLATED...DIURNAL IN
NATURE...AND LIKELY WELL INLAND.

FORECAST DILEMMA REMAINS THE TIMING OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN. THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS STILL REMAINS THE
FASTER...AND MORE AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION. HOWEVER...DEFERRED TO THE
SLOWER ECMWF WHICH HAS MAINTAINED THE BEST RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY.
THE ECMWF DOES NOT BRING THE FRONT THROUGH UNTIL SUN AFT AND THEN
KEEPS IT IN CLOSE PROXIMITY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED RAINFALL EVENT LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY WARM THROUGH SAT...THEN COOLS
DOWN SUN INTO MON BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A CHANCE MARGINAL VFR CEILINGS AND POSSIBLY
VISIBILITIES IN FOG AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS.

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...WITH
LOCALLY MARGINAL VFR CONDITIONS FROM THE NEW YORK CITY TERMINALS AND
NORTH AND WEST. THERE BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE
ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY.

WIND WILL SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY...BECOMING
GUSTY...UP TO 25 KT ALONG THE COAST...DURING THE AFTERNOON.


.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CHANCE EARLY EVENING SHRA/TSTM MAINLY FROM AROUND
THE NYC METRO TERMINALS...AND NORTH AND WEST. STRATUS AND FOG LIKELY
LATE AT NIGHT WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST.

.THURSDAY-SATURDAY...LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS IN STRATUS AND FOG LIKELY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHRA/TSTM THURSDAY AND SATURDAY. WIND GUSTS 15-
20 KT THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WITH CHANCE OF SHRA/TSTM.

.SUNDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WITH CHANCE OF SHRA/TSTM.

&&

.MARINE...
LOOKING AT OBSERVATIONS AROUND THE GREAT SOUTH BAY...FREQUENT WIND
GUSTS TO 25 KT HAVE COME TO AN END...SO WILL ALLOW THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND TO EXPIRE
AS SCHEDULED. OTHERWISE...THE SCA ON THE OCEAN WATERS CONTINUES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KT AT 44065 WILL
DECREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND THEN INCREASE AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH PROLONGED SOUTHERLY FLOW.
SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD TO 5 FT TONIGHT AND REMAIN NEAR 5 FT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

WINDS MAY ALSO APPROACH SCA LEVELS ON THE NY HARBOR AND SOUTH
SHORE BAYS AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF DENSE FOG TO FORM ON THE
WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW ON THIS AND FOR NOW HAVE CONTINUED TO FORECAST PATCHY FOG.

MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN WATERS POSSIBLE THU-SUN WITH A
MODERATE SLY FLOW. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF OFFSHORE WINDS
THU NIGHT BEHIND A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GENERALLY LESS THAN TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF BASIN AVERAGE
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER ANY STRONGER
CONVECTION THAT FORMS...ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS ANY TRAINING OF
STORMS...COULD LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AND/OR POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED RAINFALL EVENT LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DS/DW
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS/DW
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...MALOIT/DS/DW
HYDROLOGY...DS/DW




000
FXUS61 KOKX 270359
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1159 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS ANCHORED WELL OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH
THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND DISSIPATE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. A
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL THEN IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK. REMOVED POPS OVERNIGHT AS FORCING
LOOKS VERY WEAK.

FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF ORANGE COUNTY WHERE
DEWPOINTS SPIKED INTO THE 70S AFTER THE SHOWERS EXITED. WINDS ARE
CALM AND SHOULD REMAIN THIS WAY...SO ADDED FOG TO THE FORECAST UP
THERE THROUGH THE NIGHT. IT COULD BECOME LOCALLY DENSE AT TIMES.

PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TOWARDS MORNING. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE THAT FOG BECOMES LOCALLY DENSE NEAR THE COAST...BUT IT
REMAINS UNCERTAIN HOW WIDESPREAD THIS WOULD END UP BEING. THERE IS
A GREATER LIKELIHOOD FOR STRATUS TO DEVELOP WITH PERSISTENT
ONSHORE FLOW...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. SKY CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY UNTIL THEN.

LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION INCREASES ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE FURTHER OFFSHORE. THE DEVELOPMENT OF A PRE-
FRONTAL/THERMAL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A SOURCE FOR LIFT IN THE
AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CITY. CAPE VALUES IN THE
MODELS DIFFER IN THE AFTERNOON AND THIS IS DUE TO HOW MUCH HEATING
THEY FORECAST. THE NAM HAS MUCH HIGHER SURFACE BASED CAPE WITH
ITS WARMER SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN COMBINATION WITH DEW POINTS IN
THE MID 60S. FEEL CAPE VALUES MAY BE A BIT TOO HIGH IN THE
NAM...BUT IT HAS THE RIGHT IDEA WITH ITS WARMER TEMPERATURES
LEADING TO HIGHER AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY. ANY MORNING CLOUDS WILL
BREAK LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON TO ALLOW FOR ENOUGH
SUNSHINE TO REALIZE THIS HIGHER INSTABILITY.

SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND LINGER INTO
THE AFTERNOON WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND. SPC HAS THE INTERIOR OF NE
NJ AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. AN ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT
HERE...BUT FEEL STORMS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN ANY STORM WITH URBANIZED MINOR
FLOODING A POSSIBILITY. CHANCE POPS CONTINUE FOR MAINLY WEST OF
THE HUDSON RIVER.

THE QUESTION FOR WEDNESDAY EVENING IS HOW FAR EAST THE CONVECTION
GETS. THE MARINE INFLUENCE AND PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
MOST LIKELY WEAKEN THE STORMS CONSIDERABLY AS THEY MOVE NEAR THE
HUDSON RIVER. NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FORECAST IN THE
EVENING EAST OF THE HUDSON. POPS DO INCREASE TO LOW CHANCE FOR
EASTERN ZONES OVERNIGHT AS THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH REMAINS NEARBY
AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY COULD PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S
FROM NYC NORTH AND WEST AND MAINLY MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S ACROSS
SOUTHERN CT AND LONG ISLAND. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
60S.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS AT
ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL EXPAND
WESTWARD BACK INTO THE MS RIVER VALLEY AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY OVER THE
GREAT LAKES DAMPENS AND LIFTS TO THE NE THU. THIS WILL ALLOW THE
SUB TROPICAL RIDGE TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND...PUMPING IN WARM...HUMID AIR ACROSS THE REGION.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THU BEFORE
DISSIPATING OFFSHORE ON FRI. THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THU EVE...BUT DRY AIR LOOKS TO BE A LIMITING
FACTOR. HEIGHTS BUILD ALOFT FRI INTO SAT WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE
CAPPING THE AIRMASS. ANY CONVECTION WILL BE ISOLATED...DIURNAL IN
NATURE...AND LIKELY WELL INLAND.

FORECAST DILEMMA REMAINS THE TIMING OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN. THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS STILL REMAINS THE
FASTER...AND MORE AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION. HOWEVER...DEFERRED TO THE
SLOWER ECMWF WHICH HAS MAINTAINED THE BEST RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY.
THE ECMWF DOES NOT BRING THE FRONT THROUGH UNTIL SUN AFT AND THEN
KEEPS IT IN CLOSE PROXIMITY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED RAINFALL EVENT LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY WARM THROUGH SAT...THEN COOLS
DOWN SUN INTO MON BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A CHANCE MARGINAL VFR CEILINGS AND POSSIBLY
VISIBILITIES IN FOG AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS.

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...WITH
LOCALLY MARGINAL VFR CONDITIONS FROM THE NEW YORK CITY TERMINALS AND
NORTH AND WEST. THERE BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE
ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY.

WIND WILL SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY...BECOMING
GUSTY...UP TO 25 KT ALONG THE COAST...DURING THE AFTERNOON.


.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CHANCE EARLY EVENING SHRA/TSTM MAINLY FROM AROUND
THE NYC METRO TERMINALS...AND NORTH AND WEST. STRATUS AND FOG LIKELY
LATE AT NIGHT WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST.

.THURSDAY-SATURDAY...LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS IN STRATUS AND FOG LIKELY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHRA/TSTM THURSDAY AND SATURDAY. WIND GUSTS 15-
20 KT THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WITH CHANCE OF SHRA/TSTM.

.SUNDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WITH CHANCE OF SHRA/TSTM.

&&

.MARINE...
LOOKING AT OBSERVATIONS AROUND THE GREAT SOUTH BAY...FREQUENT WIND
GUSTS TO 25 KT HAVE COME TO AN END...SO WILL ALLOW THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND TO EXPIRE
AS SCHEDULED. OTHERWISE...THE SCA ON THE OCEAN WATERS CONTINUES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KT AT 44065 WILL
DECREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND THEN INCREASE AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH PROLONGED SOUTHERLY FLOW.
SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD TO 5 FT TONIGHT AND REMAIN NEAR 5 FT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

WINDS MAY ALSO APPROACH SCA LEVELS ON THE NY HARBOR AND SOUTH
SHORE BAYS AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF DENSE FOG TO FORM ON THE
WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW ON THIS AND FOR NOW HAVE CONTINUED TO FORECAST PATCHY FOG.

MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN WATERS POSSIBLE THU-SUN WITH A
MODERATE SLY FLOW. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF OFFSHORE WINDS
THU NIGHT BEHIND A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GENERALLY LESS THAN TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF BASIN AVERAGE
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER ANY STRONGER
CONVECTION THAT FORMS...ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS ANY TRAINING OF
STORMS...COULD LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AND/OR POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED RAINFALL EVENT LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DS/DW
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS/DW
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...MALOIT/DS/DW
HYDROLOGY...DS/DW




000
FXUS61 KOKX 270359
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1159 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS ANCHORED WELL OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH
THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND DISSIPATE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. A
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL THEN IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK. REMOVED POPS OVERNIGHT AS FORCING
LOOKS VERY WEAK.

FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF ORANGE COUNTY WHERE
DEWPOINTS SPIKED INTO THE 70S AFTER THE SHOWERS EXITED. WINDS ARE
CALM AND SHOULD REMAIN THIS WAY...SO ADDED FOG TO THE FORECAST UP
THERE THROUGH THE NIGHT. IT COULD BECOME LOCALLY DENSE AT TIMES.

PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TOWARDS MORNING. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE THAT FOG BECOMES LOCALLY DENSE NEAR THE COAST...BUT IT
REMAINS UNCERTAIN HOW WIDESPREAD THIS WOULD END UP BEING. THERE IS
A GREATER LIKELIHOOD FOR STRATUS TO DEVELOP WITH PERSISTENT
ONSHORE FLOW...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. SKY CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY UNTIL THEN.

LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION INCREASES ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE FURTHER OFFSHORE. THE DEVELOPMENT OF A PRE-
FRONTAL/THERMAL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A SOURCE FOR LIFT IN THE
AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CITY. CAPE VALUES IN THE
MODELS DIFFER IN THE AFTERNOON AND THIS IS DUE TO HOW MUCH HEATING
THEY FORECAST. THE NAM HAS MUCH HIGHER SURFACE BASED CAPE WITH
ITS WARMER SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN COMBINATION WITH DEW POINTS IN
THE MID 60S. FEEL CAPE VALUES MAY BE A BIT TOO HIGH IN THE
NAM...BUT IT HAS THE RIGHT IDEA WITH ITS WARMER TEMPERATURES
LEADING TO HIGHER AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY. ANY MORNING CLOUDS WILL
BREAK LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON TO ALLOW FOR ENOUGH
SUNSHINE TO REALIZE THIS HIGHER INSTABILITY.

SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND LINGER INTO
THE AFTERNOON WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND. SPC HAS THE INTERIOR OF NE
NJ AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. AN ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT
HERE...BUT FEEL STORMS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN ANY STORM WITH URBANIZED MINOR
FLOODING A POSSIBILITY. CHANCE POPS CONTINUE FOR MAINLY WEST OF
THE HUDSON RIVER.

THE QUESTION FOR WEDNESDAY EVENING IS HOW FAR EAST THE CONVECTION
GETS. THE MARINE INFLUENCE AND PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
MOST LIKELY WEAKEN THE STORMS CONSIDERABLY AS THEY MOVE NEAR THE
HUDSON RIVER. NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FORECAST IN THE
EVENING EAST OF THE HUDSON. POPS DO INCREASE TO LOW CHANCE FOR
EASTERN ZONES OVERNIGHT AS THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH REMAINS NEARBY
AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY COULD PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S
FROM NYC NORTH AND WEST AND MAINLY MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S ACROSS
SOUTHERN CT AND LONG ISLAND. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
60S.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS AT
ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL EXPAND
WESTWARD BACK INTO THE MS RIVER VALLEY AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY OVER THE
GREAT LAKES DAMPENS AND LIFTS TO THE NE THU. THIS WILL ALLOW THE
SUB TROPICAL RIDGE TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND...PUMPING IN WARM...HUMID AIR ACROSS THE REGION.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THU BEFORE
DISSIPATING OFFSHORE ON FRI. THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THU EVE...BUT DRY AIR LOOKS TO BE A LIMITING
FACTOR. HEIGHTS BUILD ALOFT FRI INTO SAT WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE
CAPPING THE AIRMASS. ANY CONVECTION WILL BE ISOLATED...DIURNAL IN
NATURE...AND LIKELY WELL INLAND.

FORECAST DILEMMA REMAINS THE TIMING OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN. THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS STILL REMAINS THE
FASTER...AND MORE AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION. HOWEVER...DEFERRED TO THE
SLOWER ECMWF WHICH HAS MAINTAINED THE BEST RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY.
THE ECMWF DOES NOT BRING THE FRONT THROUGH UNTIL SUN AFT AND THEN
KEEPS IT IN CLOSE PROXIMITY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED RAINFALL EVENT LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY WARM THROUGH SAT...THEN COOLS
DOWN SUN INTO MON BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A CHANCE MARGINAL VFR CEILINGS AND POSSIBLY
VISIBILITIES IN FOG AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS.

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...WITH
LOCALLY MARGINAL VFR CONDITIONS FROM THE NEW YORK CITY TERMINALS AND
NORTH AND WEST. THERE BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE
ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY.

WIND WILL SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY...BECOMING
GUSTY...UP TO 25 KT ALONG THE COAST...DURING THE AFTERNOON.


.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CHANCE EARLY EVENING SHRA/TSTM MAINLY FROM AROUND
THE NYC METRO TERMINALS...AND NORTH AND WEST. STRATUS AND FOG LIKELY
LATE AT NIGHT WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST.

.THURSDAY-SATURDAY...LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS IN STRATUS AND FOG LIKELY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHRA/TSTM THURSDAY AND SATURDAY. WIND GUSTS 15-
20 KT THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WITH CHANCE OF SHRA/TSTM.

.SUNDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WITH CHANCE OF SHRA/TSTM.

&&

.MARINE...
LOOKING AT OBSERVATIONS AROUND THE GREAT SOUTH BAY...FREQUENT WIND
GUSTS TO 25 KT HAVE COME TO AN END...SO WILL ALLOW THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND TO EXPIRE
AS SCHEDULED. OTHERWISE...THE SCA ON THE OCEAN WATERS CONTINUES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KT AT 44065 WILL
DECREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND THEN INCREASE AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH PROLONGED SOUTHERLY FLOW.
SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD TO 5 FT TONIGHT AND REMAIN NEAR 5 FT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

WINDS MAY ALSO APPROACH SCA LEVELS ON THE NY HARBOR AND SOUTH
SHORE BAYS AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF DENSE FOG TO FORM ON THE
WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW ON THIS AND FOR NOW HAVE CONTINUED TO FORECAST PATCHY FOG.

MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN WATERS POSSIBLE THU-SUN WITH A
MODERATE SLY FLOW. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF OFFSHORE WINDS
THU NIGHT BEHIND A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GENERALLY LESS THAN TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF BASIN AVERAGE
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER ANY STRONGER
CONVECTION THAT FORMS...ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS ANY TRAINING OF
STORMS...COULD LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AND/OR POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED RAINFALL EVENT LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DS/DW
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS/DW
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...MALOIT/DS/DW
HYDROLOGY...DS/DW




000
FXUS61 KOKX 270359
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1159 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS ANCHORED WELL OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH
THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND DISSIPATE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. A
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL THEN IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK. REMOVED POPS OVERNIGHT AS FORCING
LOOKS VERY WEAK.

FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF ORANGE COUNTY WHERE
DEWPOINTS SPIKED INTO THE 70S AFTER THE SHOWERS EXITED. WINDS ARE
CALM AND SHOULD REMAIN THIS WAY...SO ADDED FOG TO THE FORECAST UP
THERE THROUGH THE NIGHT. IT COULD BECOME LOCALLY DENSE AT TIMES.

PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TOWARDS MORNING. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE THAT FOG BECOMES LOCALLY DENSE NEAR THE COAST...BUT IT
REMAINS UNCERTAIN HOW WIDESPREAD THIS WOULD END UP BEING. THERE IS
A GREATER LIKELIHOOD FOR STRATUS TO DEVELOP WITH PERSISTENT
ONSHORE FLOW...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. SKY CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY UNTIL THEN.

LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION INCREASES ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE FURTHER OFFSHORE. THE DEVELOPMENT OF A PRE-
FRONTAL/THERMAL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A SOURCE FOR LIFT IN THE
AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CITY. CAPE VALUES IN THE
MODELS DIFFER IN THE AFTERNOON AND THIS IS DUE TO HOW MUCH HEATING
THEY FORECAST. THE NAM HAS MUCH HIGHER SURFACE BASED CAPE WITH
ITS WARMER SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN COMBINATION WITH DEW POINTS IN
THE MID 60S. FEEL CAPE VALUES MAY BE A BIT TOO HIGH IN THE
NAM...BUT IT HAS THE RIGHT IDEA WITH ITS WARMER TEMPERATURES
LEADING TO HIGHER AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY. ANY MORNING CLOUDS WILL
BREAK LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON TO ALLOW FOR ENOUGH
SUNSHINE TO REALIZE THIS HIGHER INSTABILITY.

SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND LINGER INTO
THE AFTERNOON WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND. SPC HAS THE INTERIOR OF NE
NJ AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. AN ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT
HERE...BUT FEEL STORMS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN ANY STORM WITH URBANIZED MINOR
FLOODING A POSSIBILITY. CHANCE POPS CONTINUE FOR MAINLY WEST OF
THE HUDSON RIVER.

THE QUESTION FOR WEDNESDAY EVENING IS HOW FAR EAST THE CONVECTION
GETS. THE MARINE INFLUENCE AND PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
MOST LIKELY WEAKEN THE STORMS CONSIDERABLY AS THEY MOVE NEAR THE
HUDSON RIVER. NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FORECAST IN THE
EVENING EAST OF THE HUDSON. POPS DO INCREASE TO LOW CHANCE FOR
EASTERN ZONES OVERNIGHT AS THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH REMAINS NEARBY
AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY COULD PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S
FROM NYC NORTH AND WEST AND MAINLY MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S ACROSS
SOUTHERN CT AND LONG ISLAND. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
60S.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS AT
ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL EXPAND
WESTWARD BACK INTO THE MS RIVER VALLEY AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY OVER THE
GREAT LAKES DAMPENS AND LIFTS TO THE NE THU. THIS WILL ALLOW THE
SUB TROPICAL RIDGE TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND...PUMPING IN WARM...HUMID AIR ACROSS THE REGION.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THU BEFORE
DISSIPATING OFFSHORE ON FRI. THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THU EVE...BUT DRY AIR LOOKS TO BE A LIMITING
FACTOR. HEIGHTS BUILD ALOFT FRI INTO SAT WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE
CAPPING THE AIRMASS. ANY CONVECTION WILL BE ISOLATED...DIURNAL IN
NATURE...AND LIKELY WELL INLAND.

FORECAST DILEMMA REMAINS THE TIMING OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN. THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS STILL REMAINS THE
FASTER...AND MORE AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION. HOWEVER...DEFERRED TO THE
SLOWER ECMWF WHICH HAS MAINTAINED THE BEST RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY.
THE ECMWF DOES NOT BRING THE FRONT THROUGH UNTIL SUN AFT AND THEN
KEEPS IT IN CLOSE PROXIMITY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED RAINFALL EVENT LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY WARM THROUGH SAT...THEN COOLS
DOWN SUN INTO MON BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A CHANCE MARGINAL VFR CEILINGS AND POSSIBLY
VISIBILITIES IN FOG AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS.

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...WITH
LOCALLY MARGINAL VFR CONDITIONS FROM THE NEW YORK CITY TERMINALS AND
NORTH AND WEST. THERE BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE
ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY.

WIND WILL SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY...BECOMING
GUSTY...UP TO 25 KT ALONG THE COAST...DURING THE AFTERNOON.


.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CHANCE EARLY EVENING SHRA/TSTM MAINLY FROM AROUND
THE NYC METRO TERMINALS...AND NORTH AND WEST. STRATUS AND FOG LIKELY
LATE AT NIGHT WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST.

.THURSDAY-SATURDAY...LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS IN STRATUS AND FOG LIKELY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHRA/TSTM THURSDAY AND SATURDAY. WIND GUSTS 15-
20 KT THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WITH CHANCE OF SHRA/TSTM.

.SUNDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WITH CHANCE OF SHRA/TSTM.

&&

.MARINE...
LOOKING AT OBSERVATIONS AROUND THE GREAT SOUTH BAY...FREQUENT WIND
GUSTS TO 25 KT HAVE COME TO AN END...SO WILL ALLOW THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND TO EXPIRE
AS SCHEDULED. OTHERWISE...THE SCA ON THE OCEAN WATERS CONTINUES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KT AT 44065 WILL
DECREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND THEN INCREASE AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH PROLONGED SOUTHERLY FLOW.
SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD TO 5 FT TONIGHT AND REMAIN NEAR 5 FT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

WINDS MAY ALSO APPROACH SCA LEVELS ON THE NY HARBOR AND SOUTH
SHORE BAYS AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF DENSE FOG TO FORM ON THE
WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW ON THIS AND FOR NOW HAVE CONTINUED TO FORECAST PATCHY FOG.

MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN WATERS POSSIBLE THU-SUN WITH A
MODERATE SLY FLOW. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF OFFSHORE WINDS
THU NIGHT BEHIND A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GENERALLY LESS THAN TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF BASIN AVERAGE
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER ANY STRONGER
CONVECTION THAT FORMS...ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS ANY TRAINING OF
STORMS...COULD LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AND/OR POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED RAINFALL EVENT LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DS/DW
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS/DW
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...MALOIT/DS/DW
HYDROLOGY...DS/DW




000
FXUS61 KOKX 270359
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1159 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS ANCHORED WELL OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH
THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND DISSIPATE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. A
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL THEN IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK. REMOVED POPS OVERNIGHT AS FORCING
LOOKS VERY WEAK.

FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF ORANGE COUNTY WHERE
DEWPOINTS SPIKED INTO THE 70S AFTER THE SHOWERS EXITED. WINDS ARE
CALM AND SHOULD REMAIN THIS WAY...SO ADDED FOG TO THE FORECAST UP
THERE THROUGH THE NIGHT. IT COULD BECOME LOCALLY DENSE AT TIMES.

PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TOWARDS MORNING. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE THAT FOG BECOMES LOCALLY DENSE NEAR THE COAST...BUT IT
REMAINS UNCERTAIN HOW WIDESPREAD THIS WOULD END UP BEING. THERE IS
A GREATER LIKELIHOOD FOR STRATUS TO DEVELOP WITH PERSISTENT
ONSHORE FLOW...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. SKY CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY UNTIL THEN.

LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION INCREASES ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE FURTHER OFFSHORE. THE DEVELOPMENT OF A PRE-
FRONTAL/THERMAL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A SOURCE FOR LIFT IN THE
AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CITY. CAPE VALUES IN THE
MODELS DIFFER IN THE AFTERNOON AND THIS IS DUE TO HOW MUCH HEATING
THEY FORECAST. THE NAM HAS MUCH HIGHER SURFACE BASED CAPE WITH
ITS WARMER SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN COMBINATION WITH DEW POINTS IN
THE MID 60S. FEEL CAPE VALUES MAY BE A BIT TOO HIGH IN THE
NAM...BUT IT HAS THE RIGHT IDEA WITH ITS WARMER TEMPERATURES
LEADING TO HIGHER AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY. ANY MORNING CLOUDS WILL
BREAK LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON TO ALLOW FOR ENOUGH
SUNSHINE TO REALIZE THIS HIGHER INSTABILITY.

SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND LINGER INTO
THE AFTERNOON WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND. SPC HAS THE INTERIOR OF NE
NJ AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. AN ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT
HERE...BUT FEEL STORMS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN ANY STORM WITH URBANIZED MINOR
FLOODING A POSSIBILITY. CHANCE POPS CONTINUE FOR MAINLY WEST OF
THE HUDSON RIVER.

THE QUESTION FOR WEDNESDAY EVENING IS HOW FAR EAST THE CONVECTION
GETS. THE MARINE INFLUENCE AND PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
MOST LIKELY WEAKEN THE STORMS CONSIDERABLY AS THEY MOVE NEAR THE
HUDSON RIVER. NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FORECAST IN THE
EVENING EAST OF THE HUDSON. POPS DO INCREASE TO LOW CHANCE FOR
EASTERN ZONES OVERNIGHT AS THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH REMAINS NEARBY
AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY COULD PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S
FROM NYC NORTH AND WEST AND MAINLY MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S ACROSS
SOUTHERN CT AND LONG ISLAND. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
60S.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS AT
ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL EXPAND
WESTWARD BACK INTO THE MS RIVER VALLEY AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY OVER THE
GREAT LAKES DAMPENS AND LIFTS TO THE NE THU. THIS WILL ALLOW THE
SUB TROPICAL RIDGE TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND...PUMPING IN WARM...HUMID AIR ACROSS THE REGION.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THU BEFORE
DISSIPATING OFFSHORE ON FRI. THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THU EVE...BUT DRY AIR LOOKS TO BE A LIMITING
FACTOR. HEIGHTS BUILD ALOFT FRI INTO SAT WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE
CAPPING THE AIRMASS. ANY CONVECTION WILL BE ISOLATED...DIURNAL IN
NATURE...AND LIKELY WELL INLAND.

FORECAST DILEMMA REMAINS THE TIMING OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN. THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS STILL REMAINS THE
FASTER...AND MORE AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION. HOWEVER...DEFERRED TO THE
SLOWER ECMWF WHICH HAS MAINTAINED THE BEST RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY.
THE ECMWF DOES NOT BRING THE FRONT THROUGH UNTIL SUN AFT AND THEN
KEEPS IT IN CLOSE PROXIMITY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED RAINFALL EVENT LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY WARM THROUGH SAT...THEN COOLS
DOWN SUN INTO MON BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A CHANCE MARGINAL VFR CEILINGS AND POSSIBLY
VISIBILITIES IN FOG AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS.

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...WITH
LOCALLY MARGINAL VFR CONDITIONS FROM THE NEW YORK CITY TERMINALS AND
NORTH AND WEST. THERE BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE
ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY.

WIND WILL SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY...BECOMING
GUSTY...UP TO 25 KT ALONG THE COAST...DURING THE AFTERNOON.


.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CHANCE EARLY EVENING SHRA/TSTM MAINLY FROM AROUND
THE NYC METRO TERMINALS...AND NORTH AND WEST. STRATUS AND FOG LIKELY
LATE AT NIGHT WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST.

.THURSDAY-SATURDAY...LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS IN STRATUS AND FOG LIKELY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHRA/TSTM THURSDAY AND SATURDAY. WIND GUSTS 15-
20 KT THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WITH CHANCE OF SHRA/TSTM.

.SUNDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WITH CHANCE OF SHRA/TSTM.

&&

.MARINE...
LOOKING AT OBSERVATIONS AROUND THE GREAT SOUTH BAY...FREQUENT WIND
GUSTS TO 25 KT HAVE COME TO AN END...SO WILL ALLOW THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND TO EXPIRE
AS SCHEDULED. OTHERWISE...THE SCA ON THE OCEAN WATERS CONTINUES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KT AT 44065 WILL
DECREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND THEN INCREASE AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH PROLONGED SOUTHERLY FLOW.
SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD TO 5 FT TONIGHT AND REMAIN NEAR 5 FT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

WINDS MAY ALSO APPROACH SCA LEVELS ON THE NY HARBOR AND SOUTH
SHORE BAYS AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF DENSE FOG TO FORM ON THE
WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW ON THIS AND FOR NOW HAVE CONTINUED TO FORECAST PATCHY FOG.

MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN WATERS POSSIBLE THU-SUN WITH A
MODERATE SLY FLOW. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF OFFSHORE WINDS
THU NIGHT BEHIND A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GENERALLY LESS THAN TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF BASIN AVERAGE
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER ANY STRONGER
CONVECTION THAT FORMS...ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS ANY TRAINING OF
STORMS...COULD LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AND/OR POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED RAINFALL EVENT LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DS/DW
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS/DW
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...MALOIT/DS/DW
HYDROLOGY...DS/DW




000
FXUS61 KOKX 270256
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1056 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS ANCHORED WELL OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH
THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND DISSIPATE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. A
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL THEN IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK. REMOVED POPS OVERNIGHT AS FORCING
LOOKS VERY WEAK.

FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF ORANGE COUNTY WHERE
DEWPOINTS SPIKED INTO THE 70S AFTER THE SHOWERS EXITED. WINDS ARE
CALM AND SHOULD REMAIN THIS WAY...SO ADDED FOG TO THE FORECAST UP
THERE THROUGH THE NIGHT. IT COULD BECOME LOCALLY DENSE AT TIMES.

PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TOWARDS MORNING. THERE IS A LOW
CHC THAT FOG BECOMES LOCALLY DENSE NEAR THE COAST...BUT IT REMAINS
UNCERTAIN HOW WIDESPREAD THIS WOULD END UP BEING. THERE IS A
GREATER LIKELIHOOD FOR STRATUS TO DEVELOP WITH PERSISTENT ONSHORE
FLOW...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. SKY CONDS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PTLY CLOUDY UNTIL THEN.

LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION INCREASES ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE FURTHER OFFSHORE. THE DEVELOPMENT OF A PRE-
FRONTAL/THERMAL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A SOURCE FOR LIFT IN THE
AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CITY. CAPE VALUES IN THE
MODELS DIFFER IN THE AFTERNOON AND THIS IS DUE TO HOW MUCH HEATING
THEY FORECAST. THE NAM HAS MUCH HIGHER SBCAPE WITH ITS WARMER
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN COMBINATION WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID
60S. FEEL CAPE VALUES MAY BE A BIT TOO HIGH IN THE NAM...BUT IT
HAS THE RIGHT IDEA WITH ITS WARMER TEMPERATURES LEADING TO HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY. ANY MORNING CLOUDS WILL BREAK LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON TO ALLOW FOR ENOUGH SUNSHINE TO REALIZE THIS
HIGHER INSTABILITY.

SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND LINGER INTO
THE AFTERNOON WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND. SPC HAS THE INTERIOR OF NE
NJ AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. AN ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT
HERE...BUT FEEL STORMS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN ANY STORM WITH URBANIZED MINOR
FLOODING A POSSIBILITY. CHANCE POPS CONTINUE FOR MAINLY WEST OF
THE HUDSON RIVER.

THE QUESTION FOR WEDNESDAY EVENING IS HOW FAR EAST THE CONVECTION
GETS. THE MARINE INFLUENCE AND PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
MOST LIKELY WEAKEN THE STORMS CONSIDERABLY AS THEY MOVE NEAR THE
HUDSON RIVER. NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FORECAST IN THE
EVENING EAST OF THE HUDSON. POPS DO INCREASE TO LOW CHANCE FOR
EASTERN ZONES OVERNIGHT AS THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH REMAINS NEARBY
AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY COULD PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S
FROM NYC NORTH AND WEST AND MAINLY MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S ACROSS
SOUTHERN CT AND LONG ISLAND. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
60S.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS AT
ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL EXPAND
WESTWARD BACK INTO THE MS RIVER VALLEY AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY OVER THE
GREAT LAKES DAMPENS AND LIFTS TO THE NE THU. THIS WILL ALLOW THE
SUBTROP RIDGE TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...PUMPING IN
WARM...HUMID AIR ACROSS THE REGION.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THU BEFORE
DISSIPATING OFFSHORE ON FRI. THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THU EVE...BUT DRY AIR LOOKS TO BE A LIMITING
FACTOR. HEIGHTS BUILD ALOFT FRI INTO SAT WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE
CAPPING THE AIRMASS. ANY CONVECTION WILL BE ISOLATED...DIURNAL IN
NATURE...AND LIKELY WELL INLAND.

FORECAST DILEMMA REMAINS THE TIMING OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN. THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS STILL REMAINS THE
FASTER...AND MORE AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION. HOWEVER...DEFERRED TO THE
SLOWER ECMWF WHICH HAS MAINTAINED THE BEST RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY.
THE ECMWF DOES NOT BRING THE FRONT THROUGH UNTIL SUN AFT AND THEN
KEEPS IT IN CLOSE PROXIMITY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED RAINFALL EVENT LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY WARM THROUGH SAT...THEN COOLS
DOWN SUN INTO MON BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A CHANCE MARGINAL VFR CEILINGS AND POSSIBLY
VISIBILITIES IN FOG AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS.

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...WITH
LOCALLY MARGINAL VFR CONDITIONS FROM THE NEW YORK CITY TERMINALS AND
NORTH AND WEST. THERE BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE
ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY.

WIND WILL SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY...BECOMING
GUSTY...UP TO 25 KT ALONG THE COAST...DURING THE AFTERNOON.


.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CHANCE EARLY EVENING SHRA/TSTM MAINLY FROM AROUND
THE NYC METRO TERMINALS...AND NORTH AND WEST. STRATUS AND FOG LIKELY
LATE AT NIGHT WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST.

.THURSDAY-SATURDAY...LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS IN STRATUS AND FOG LIKELY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHRA/TSTM THURSDAY AND SATURDAY. WIND GUSTS 15-
20 KT THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WITH CHANCE OF SHRA/TSTM.

.SUNDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WITH CHANCE OF SHRA/TSTM.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE CANCELLED THE SCA ON NY HARBOR AS GUSTS HAVE FALLEN BELOW
ADVSY CRITERIA AT OBS SURROUNDING THE WATER. MARGINAL GUSTS
CONTINUE AT MESONET OBS BORDERING THE GREAT SOUTH BAY AS WELL AS
BUOY 44069 ON THE BAY ITSELF...SO MAINTAINED THE ADVSY THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE...THE SCA ON THE OCEAN WATERS CONTINUES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KT AT 44065 WILL DECREASE OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND THEN INCREASE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH PROLONGED SOUTHERLY FLOW. SEAS WILL ALSO
BUILD TO 5 FT TONIGHT AND REMAIN NEAR 5 FT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

WINDS MAY ALSO APPROACH SCA LEVELS ON THE NY HARBOR AND SOUTH
SHORE BAYS AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF DENSE FOG TO FORM ON THE
WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW ON THIS AND FOR NOW HAVE CONTINUED TO FORECAST PATCHY FOG.

MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN WATERS POSSIBLE THU-SUN WITH A
MODERATE SLY FLOW. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF OFFSHORE WINDS
THU NIGHT BEHIND A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GENERALLY LESS THAN TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF BASIN AVERAGE
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER ANY STRONGER
CONVECTION THAT FORMS...ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS ANY TRAINING OF
STORMS...COULD LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AND/OR POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED RAINFALL EVENT LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ345.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KOKX 270256
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1056 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS ANCHORED WELL OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH
THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND DISSIPATE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. A
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL THEN IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK. REMOVED POPS OVERNIGHT AS FORCING
LOOKS VERY WEAK.

FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF ORANGE COUNTY WHERE
DEWPOINTS SPIKED INTO THE 70S AFTER THE SHOWERS EXITED. WINDS ARE
CALM AND SHOULD REMAIN THIS WAY...SO ADDED FOG TO THE FORECAST UP
THERE THROUGH THE NIGHT. IT COULD BECOME LOCALLY DENSE AT TIMES.

PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TOWARDS MORNING. THERE IS A LOW
CHC THAT FOG BECOMES LOCALLY DENSE NEAR THE COAST...BUT IT REMAINS
UNCERTAIN HOW WIDESPREAD THIS WOULD END UP BEING. THERE IS A
GREATER LIKELIHOOD FOR STRATUS TO DEVELOP WITH PERSISTENT ONSHORE
FLOW...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. SKY CONDS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PTLY CLOUDY UNTIL THEN.

LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION INCREASES ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE FURTHER OFFSHORE. THE DEVELOPMENT OF A PRE-
FRONTAL/THERMAL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A SOURCE FOR LIFT IN THE
AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CITY. CAPE VALUES IN THE
MODELS DIFFER IN THE AFTERNOON AND THIS IS DUE TO HOW MUCH HEATING
THEY FORECAST. THE NAM HAS MUCH HIGHER SBCAPE WITH ITS WARMER
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN COMBINATION WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID
60S. FEEL CAPE VALUES MAY BE A BIT TOO HIGH IN THE NAM...BUT IT
HAS THE RIGHT IDEA WITH ITS WARMER TEMPERATURES LEADING TO HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY. ANY MORNING CLOUDS WILL BREAK LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON TO ALLOW FOR ENOUGH SUNSHINE TO REALIZE THIS
HIGHER INSTABILITY.

SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND LINGER INTO
THE AFTERNOON WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND. SPC HAS THE INTERIOR OF NE
NJ AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. AN ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT
HERE...BUT FEEL STORMS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN ANY STORM WITH URBANIZED MINOR
FLOODING A POSSIBILITY. CHANCE POPS CONTINUE FOR MAINLY WEST OF
THE HUDSON RIVER.

THE QUESTION FOR WEDNESDAY EVENING IS HOW FAR EAST THE CONVECTION
GETS. THE MARINE INFLUENCE AND PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
MOST LIKELY WEAKEN THE STORMS CONSIDERABLY AS THEY MOVE NEAR THE
HUDSON RIVER. NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FORECAST IN THE
EVENING EAST OF THE HUDSON. POPS DO INCREASE TO LOW CHANCE FOR
EASTERN ZONES OVERNIGHT AS THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH REMAINS NEARBY
AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY COULD PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S
FROM NYC NORTH AND WEST AND MAINLY MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S ACROSS
SOUTHERN CT AND LONG ISLAND. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
60S.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS AT
ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL EXPAND
WESTWARD BACK INTO THE MS RIVER VALLEY AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY OVER THE
GREAT LAKES DAMPENS AND LIFTS TO THE NE THU. THIS WILL ALLOW THE
SUBTROP RIDGE TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...PUMPING IN
WARM...HUMID AIR ACROSS THE REGION.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THU BEFORE
DISSIPATING OFFSHORE ON FRI. THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THU EVE...BUT DRY AIR LOOKS TO BE A LIMITING
FACTOR. HEIGHTS BUILD ALOFT FRI INTO SAT WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE
CAPPING THE AIRMASS. ANY CONVECTION WILL BE ISOLATED...DIURNAL IN
NATURE...AND LIKELY WELL INLAND.

FORECAST DILEMMA REMAINS THE TIMING OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN. THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS STILL REMAINS THE
FASTER...AND MORE AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION. HOWEVER...DEFERRED TO THE
SLOWER ECMWF WHICH HAS MAINTAINED THE BEST RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY.
THE ECMWF DOES NOT BRING THE FRONT THROUGH UNTIL SUN AFT AND THEN
KEEPS IT IN CLOSE PROXIMITY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED RAINFALL EVENT LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY WARM THROUGH SAT...THEN COOLS
DOWN SUN INTO MON BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A CHANCE MARGINAL VFR CEILINGS AND POSSIBLY
VISIBILITIES IN FOG AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS.

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...WITH
LOCALLY MARGINAL VFR CONDITIONS FROM THE NEW YORK CITY TERMINALS AND
NORTH AND WEST. THERE BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE
ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY.

WIND WILL SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY...BECOMING
GUSTY...UP TO 25 KT ALONG THE COAST...DURING THE AFTERNOON.


.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CHANCE EARLY EVENING SHRA/TSTM MAINLY FROM AROUND
THE NYC METRO TERMINALS...AND NORTH AND WEST. STRATUS AND FOG LIKELY
LATE AT NIGHT WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST.

.THURSDAY-SATURDAY...LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS IN STRATUS AND FOG LIKELY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHRA/TSTM THURSDAY AND SATURDAY. WIND GUSTS 15-
20 KT THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WITH CHANCE OF SHRA/TSTM.

.SUNDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WITH CHANCE OF SHRA/TSTM.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE CANCELLED THE SCA ON NY HARBOR AS GUSTS HAVE FALLEN BELOW
ADVSY CRITERIA AT OBS SURROUNDING THE WATER. MARGINAL GUSTS
CONTINUE AT MESONET OBS BORDERING THE GREAT SOUTH BAY AS WELL AS
BUOY 44069 ON THE BAY ITSELF...SO MAINTAINED THE ADVSY THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE...THE SCA ON THE OCEAN WATERS CONTINUES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KT AT 44065 WILL DECREASE OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND THEN INCREASE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH PROLONGED SOUTHERLY FLOW. SEAS WILL ALSO
BUILD TO 5 FT TONIGHT AND REMAIN NEAR 5 FT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

WINDS MAY ALSO APPROACH SCA LEVELS ON THE NY HARBOR AND SOUTH
SHORE BAYS AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF DENSE FOG TO FORM ON THE
WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW ON THIS AND FOR NOW HAVE CONTINUED TO FORECAST PATCHY FOG.

MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN WATERS POSSIBLE THU-SUN WITH A
MODERATE SLY FLOW. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF OFFSHORE WINDS
THU NIGHT BEHIND A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GENERALLY LESS THAN TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF BASIN AVERAGE
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER ANY STRONGER
CONVECTION THAT FORMS...ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS ANY TRAINING OF
STORMS...COULD LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AND/OR POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED RAINFALL EVENT LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ345.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KBOX 270205
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1005 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE THROUGH TOMORROW.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY...
WITH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY HAVING THE HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

1000 PM UPDATE...

ANY LEFT OVER SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED THIS EVENING. SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND CONTINUES TO REMAIN IN THE WARM MOIST SECTOR AS WARM FRONT
IS WELL NORTH WITH A COLD FRONT WELL TO THE WEST. WE HAVE ALREADY
STARTED TO TAP INTO THE GULF MOISTURE SO PWATS ARE ON THE INCREASE
AS WELL. LOW CONFIDENCE IF ANY SHOWER WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS
WE DO HAVE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY...BUT LACK THE TRIGGER
MECHANISM.

TEMPERATURES ARE SLOW TO DROP THIS EVENING WITH MANY SITES STILL
IN THE 70S AWAY FROM THE SOUTH COAST/CAPE AND ISLANDS. BIGGEST
QUESTION IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG. VSBYS ARE SLOWLY DROPPING
ACROSS ACK AND MVY...BUT FEEL THAT STRATUS MAY BE THE BIGGEST
ISSUE OVERNIGHT. WILL WAIT AND SEE LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS TO
DETERMINE FOG POTENTIAL...BUT RIGHT NOW HAVE A LOW CONFIDENCE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL START TO
BREAK DOWN WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS COULD LEAD TO A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.  MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE WAS DRY BUT THE
GFS HAS BEEN INDICATING NOT JUST SPRINKLES BUT A GOOD TWO TENTHS OF
AN INCH OF PRECIP.  FEEL THIS MAY BE SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK FROM
THE CONVECTION OVER NEW YORK AND PA THIS EVENING.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT SOME CLOUDINESS AND THAT WITH THE MOIST
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO MUCH.
EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 60S.  THAT WARM...MOIST AIR
FLOWING OVER THE COLDER OCEAN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AREAS OF DENSE
FOG OVER THE OCEAN AND BLEEDING ONTO THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND
ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY DAY FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH
TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 80S IN THE CONNECTICUT AND
MERRIMACK VALLEYS WITH MID 80S ELSEWHERE.  EXCEPTION TO THIS IS
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS WHERE BOTH ONSHORE WINDS
AND PERHAPS LINGERING MARINE STRATUS AND FOG WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM CLIMBING.  EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S IN THESE
LOCATIONS.

THIS LOOKS LIKE THE BETTER DAY FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  HOWEVER...THIS DOESN/T APPEAR TO OCCUR
UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  INSTABILITY IS A BIT BETTER THAN
IT WAS TODAY BUT IS STILL SOMEWHAT LACKING AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
LEAVE PLENTY TO BE DESIRED.  THE MAIN FOCUS FOR STORMS WILL BE OVER
NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA WHERE THE BETTER INSTABILITY AND FOCUSING
WILL BE.  THESE STORMS...MUCH LIKE TODAY...WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN PART OF THE CWA TOWARDS THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
WHILE THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE...THE
MOST LIKELY THREATS WITH THESE STORMS ARE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY
WINDS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST
INTO THE EVENING AS WIND SHEAR INCREASES WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
MOVING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  ANOTHER WARM NIGHT IN STORE WITH
LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

TO START OFF...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES KEEP OVERALL UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER 48...WITH RIDGING ALONG OR
JUST E OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND TROUGHING ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO
THE SOUTHWEST. MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL SLOW DEAMPLIFICATION
OF THE UPPER PATTERN GOING INTO THIS WEEKEND...WITH RIDGE AXIS
FLATTENING OUT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AS A SURFACE FRONT THAT TRIES TO
WORK ACROSS THE REGION WASHES OUT DURING FRIDAY. BERMUDA HIGH RE-
ESTABLISHES FOR EARLY THIS WEEKEND WHILE ANOTHER FRONT WORKS SE OUT
OF QUEBEC. THIS FRONT LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH TO WORK SLOWLY SE AS THE
WESTERN ATLC RIDGE SHIFTS S AND UPPER TROUGHING TAKES OVER ACROSS
THE NORTHERN STREAM. BIG QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER THE FRONT WILL
CLEAR OFF THE S COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK OR WILL IT STALL CLOSER TO OR
OVER SOUTHERN AREAS.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...
THOUGH DID LEAN TOWARD MORE TOWARD THE ENSEMBLES FROM THIS WEEKEND
ONWARD DUE TO TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT. FOR THE
LATTER TIMEFRAME...LEANED CLOSER TO THE SLOWER ECMWF AND ECENS
MEANS.

DETAILS...

THURSDAY...WILL SEE LEFTOVER SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS WESTERN AREAS
THU MORNING WITH PWATS ON ORDER OF AROUND 1.5 INCHES. THE FRONT
SHIFTS S TAKING THE HIGHER PWAT AIR WITH IT...SO EXPECT THE PRECIP
TO TEND TO WEAKEN THOUGH WILL LINGER WHERE MILDER TEMPS ARE THANKS
TO DIURNAL INFLUENCES. INSTABILITY ALSO SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND WEAKENS
SO EXPECT ANY THUNDERSTORMS TO TAPER OFF BY AROUND MIDDAY. BEST SHOT
FOR PRECIP WILL BE FROM THE MERRIMACK VALLEY SE ACROSS CENTRAL MA TO
THE MID AND LOWER CT VALLEY. CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW QUICK DOWNPOURS
THROUGH MIDDAY WITH THE HIGHER PWAT AIRMASS. WILL SEE AREAS OF
FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...DEVELOP ACROSS S COASTAL AREAS THU NIGHT INTO
FRI MORNING.

FRIDAY...MODELS STARTED TO SIGNAL DRIER AIR WORKING IN ON MONDAY...
BUT MOST OF THE MODEL SUITE HAS HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDING S OUT OF
QUEBEC SO EXPECT A DRY BUT MILD DAY. DEWPTS DROP A BIT...DOWN TO THE
50S...BUT WILL BEGIN TO RISE AGAIN FRI NIGHT. WILL SEE A LIGHT E-SE
WIND FLOW SO WILL BE COOLER ALONG THE COAST...HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
70S EXCEPT 65-70 ACROSS COASTAL AREAS...RANGING TO THE LOWER TO MID
80S ACROSS THE CT VALLEY.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REPOSITIONS OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD SO SW
WINDS KICK IN AGAIN BRINGING A RETURN TO MORE HUMID AIR. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT START TO APPROACH OUT OF GREAT LAKES AND WESTERN QUEBEC.
ALSO NOTING INCREASING INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...
WITH K INDICES RISING TO THE LOWER-MID 30S AND TQ VALUES IN THE
UPPER TEENS SO COULD SEE SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION WHICH COULD LAST
INTO SAT NIGHT. BEST LIFT MOVES CLOSER DURING LATE SAT/SAT NIGHT SO
WILL SEE SCT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. A PWAT SWATH OF 1.6 TO
1.75 INCHES PUSHES OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SO MAY SEE SOME HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS WITH ANY CONVECTION.  WILL SEE QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE
EARLY SATURDAY...SO TEMPS WILL REBOUND TO THE 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS
EXCEPT THE LOWER-MID 70S ALONG S COASTAL AREAS.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING...THEN
REACHES THE S COAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECT CHANCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. STILL SOME TIMING ISSUES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF
BUT A BIT BETTER FOR THIS TIMEFRAME. WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE
FRONT...EXPECT SCT PRECIP TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUN NIGHT.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...SOMEWHAT LOWER CONFIDENCE DUE TO TIMING AND
PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES WITH THE FRONT AND WHETHER IT STALLS NEAR THE
S COAST OR OFFSHORE. AT THIS POINT...KEPT CHANCE POPS ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH MIDDAY THEN SHOULD PUSH JUST OFFSHORE BUT
MAY LINGER ACROSS THE ISLANDS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY SUNDAY. MAY
SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS EARLY...THEN INSTABILITY WORKS OFFSHORE BUT
COULD STILL SEE SOME SHOWERS WHILE HIGH PRES MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND.

HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING FOR SOUTHERN AREAS INTO TUESDAY
AS FRONT LOOKS TO LINGER...THEN MAY TRY TO MAKE A RUN BACK NE AS THE
HIGH PUSHES OFF INTO THE GULF OF MAINE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ANY LEFTOVER SHOWERS ACROSS NW MA
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 03Z...BUT MAY PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR TO START...THEN DETERIORATING TO MVFR-IFR
IN AREAS OF FOG ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS. COULD
SEE PASSING SHOWER OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR ALONG THE SOUTH COAST DURING
THE MORNING SHOULD PUSH OFFSHORE. ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE INTERIOR... DROPPING TO MVFR WITHIN ANY -SHRA/-TSRA THAT
DEVELOPS. EXPECT SW WINDS TO GUST UP TO 20-25 KT AT TIMES MAINLY
ACROSS RI/SE MA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO
IFR ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS AS MARITIME FOG AND
STRATUS ROLLS BACK IN.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. COULD SEE CONDITIONS DROP
TO MVFR WITHIN A POP-UP THUNDERSTORM TODAY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR. WILL SEE SCT -SHRA/TSRA WITH LOCAL MVFR-IFR
CONDITIONS. EXPECT AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP DURING THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING PERIOD WITH IFR-LIFR VSBYS.

FRIDAY...VFR. MAY SEE LOCAL MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS EARLY FRI MORNING
ALONG S COAST IN PATCHY FOG...THEN WILL LOWER AGAIN LATE FRI
NIGHT/SAT MORNING TO MVFR-IFR.

SATURDAY...PATCHY FOG EARLY SAT MORNING WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE. SCT SHRA/TSRA SAT THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH LOCAL MVFR-
IFR CONDITIONS. SW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KT MAINLY ALONG THE COAST
SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING.

SUNDAY...SCT SHOWERS TSTMS LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD END
SUN NIGHT. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE UP THROUGH TONIGHT...MAINLY ON THE
OUTER WATERS FOR SEAS AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. SEAS WILL CLIMB TO
5 FEET AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE PERIOD. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
WILL EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT FOR THE INNER WATERS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL DIMINISH...BUT MAY LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET.

IN ADDITION...AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ON THE
WATERS TONIGHT...SUBSTANTIALLY REDUCING VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY...EXPECT SW WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KT. SEAS BUILD TO
AROUND 5 FT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS TO THE OUTER WATERS E OF CAPE
COD...BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT THU NIGHT. VSBYS REDUCED IN
AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DENSE OFFSHORE BOTH THU AND FRI NIGHTS.

FRIDAY...LIGHT N-NE WINDS BECOME E DURING THE DAY...THEN SHIFT TO
S-SW FRI NIGHT. EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SW WINDS MAY BRIEFLY GUST TO 25 KT DURING SAT ON
THE EASTERN WATERS...OTHERWISE EXPECT GUSTS UP TO 20 KT SEAS BUILD
AGAIN TO AROUND 5 FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS...WHICH WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE LATE SUN OR SUN NIGHT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/EVT
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN/RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...RLG/EVT
MARINE...RLG/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 270205
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1005 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE THROUGH TOMORROW.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY...
WITH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY HAVING THE HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

1000 PM UPDATE...

ANY LEFT OVER SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED THIS EVENING. SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND CONTINUES TO REMAIN IN THE WARM MOIST SECTOR AS WARM FRONT
IS WELL NORTH WITH A COLD FRONT WELL TO THE WEST. WE HAVE ALREADY
STARTED TO TAP INTO THE GULF MOISTURE SO PWATS ARE ON THE INCREASE
AS WELL. LOW CONFIDENCE IF ANY SHOWER WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS
WE DO HAVE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY...BUT LACK THE TRIGGER
MECHANISM.

TEMPERATURES ARE SLOW TO DROP THIS EVENING WITH MANY SITES STILL
IN THE 70S AWAY FROM THE SOUTH COAST/CAPE AND ISLANDS. BIGGEST
QUESTION IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG. VSBYS ARE SLOWLY DROPPING
ACROSS ACK AND MVY...BUT FEEL THAT STRATUS MAY BE THE BIGGEST
ISSUE OVERNIGHT. WILL WAIT AND SEE LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS TO
DETERMINE FOG POTENTIAL...BUT RIGHT NOW HAVE A LOW CONFIDENCE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL START TO
BREAK DOWN WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS COULD LEAD TO A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.  MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE WAS DRY BUT THE
GFS HAS BEEN INDICATING NOT JUST SPRINKLES BUT A GOOD TWO TENTHS OF
AN INCH OF PRECIP.  FEEL THIS MAY BE SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK FROM
THE CONVECTION OVER NEW YORK AND PA THIS EVENING.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT SOME CLOUDINESS AND THAT WITH THE MOIST
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO MUCH.
EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 60S.  THAT WARM...MOIST AIR
FLOWING OVER THE COLDER OCEAN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AREAS OF DENSE
FOG OVER THE OCEAN AND BLEEDING ONTO THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND
ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY DAY FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH
TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 80S IN THE CONNECTICUT AND
MERRIMACK VALLEYS WITH MID 80S ELSEWHERE.  EXCEPTION TO THIS IS
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS WHERE BOTH ONSHORE WINDS
AND PERHAPS LINGERING MARINE STRATUS AND FOG WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM CLIMBING.  EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S IN THESE
LOCATIONS.

THIS LOOKS LIKE THE BETTER DAY FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  HOWEVER...THIS DOESN/T APPEAR TO OCCUR
UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  INSTABILITY IS A BIT BETTER THAN
IT WAS TODAY BUT IS STILL SOMEWHAT LACKING AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
LEAVE PLENTY TO BE DESIRED.  THE MAIN FOCUS FOR STORMS WILL BE OVER
NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA WHERE THE BETTER INSTABILITY AND FOCUSING
WILL BE.  THESE STORMS...MUCH LIKE TODAY...WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN PART OF THE CWA TOWARDS THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
WHILE THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE...THE
MOST LIKELY THREATS WITH THESE STORMS ARE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY
WINDS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST
INTO THE EVENING AS WIND SHEAR INCREASES WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
MOVING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  ANOTHER WARM NIGHT IN STORE WITH
LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

TO START OFF...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES KEEP OVERALL UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER 48...WITH RIDGING ALONG OR
JUST E OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND TROUGHING ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO
THE SOUTHWEST. MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL SLOW DEAMPLIFICATION
OF THE UPPER PATTERN GOING INTO THIS WEEKEND...WITH RIDGE AXIS
FLATTENING OUT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AS A SURFACE FRONT THAT TRIES TO
WORK ACROSS THE REGION WASHES OUT DURING FRIDAY. BERMUDA HIGH RE-
ESTABLISHES FOR EARLY THIS WEEKEND WHILE ANOTHER FRONT WORKS SE OUT
OF QUEBEC. THIS FRONT LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH TO WORK SLOWLY SE AS THE
WESTERN ATLC RIDGE SHIFTS S AND UPPER TROUGHING TAKES OVER ACROSS
THE NORTHERN STREAM. BIG QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER THE FRONT WILL
CLEAR OFF THE S COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK OR WILL IT STALL CLOSER TO OR
OVER SOUTHERN AREAS.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...
THOUGH DID LEAN TOWARD MORE TOWARD THE ENSEMBLES FROM THIS WEEKEND
ONWARD DUE TO TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT. FOR THE
LATTER TIMEFRAME...LEANED CLOSER TO THE SLOWER ECMWF AND ECENS
MEANS.

DETAILS...

THURSDAY...WILL SEE LEFTOVER SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS WESTERN AREAS
THU MORNING WITH PWATS ON ORDER OF AROUND 1.5 INCHES. THE FRONT
SHIFTS S TAKING THE HIGHER PWAT AIR WITH IT...SO EXPECT THE PRECIP
TO TEND TO WEAKEN THOUGH WILL LINGER WHERE MILDER TEMPS ARE THANKS
TO DIURNAL INFLUENCES. INSTABILITY ALSO SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND WEAKENS
SO EXPECT ANY THUNDERSTORMS TO TAPER OFF BY AROUND MIDDAY. BEST SHOT
FOR PRECIP WILL BE FROM THE MERRIMACK VALLEY SE ACROSS CENTRAL MA TO
THE MID AND LOWER CT VALLEY. CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW QUICK DOWNPOURS
THROUGH MIDDAY WITH THE HIGHER PWAT AIRMASS. WILL SEE AREAS OF
FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...DEVELOP ACROSS S COASTAL AREAS THU NIGHT INTO
FRI MORNING.

FRIDAY...MODELS STARTED TO SIGNAL DRIER AIR WORKING IN ON MONDAY...
BUT MOST OF THE MODEL SUITE HAS HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDING S OUT OF
QUEBEC SO EXPECT A DRY BUT MILD DAY. DEWPTS DROP A BIT...DOWN TO THE
50S...BUT WILL BEGIN TO RISE AGAIN FRI NIGHT. WILL SEE A LIGHT E-SE
WIND FLOW SO WILL BE COOLER ALONG THE COAST...HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
70S EXCEPT 65-70 ACROSS COASTAL AREAS...RANGING TO THE LOWER TO MID
80S ACROSS THE CT VALLEY.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REPOSITIONS OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD SO SW
WINDS KICK IN AGAIN BRINGING A RETURN TO MORE HUMID AIR. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT START TO APPROACH OUT OF GREAT LAKES AND WESTERN QUEBEC.
ALSO NOTING INCREASING INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...
WITH K INDICES RISING TO THE LOWER-MID 30S AND TQ VALUES IN THE
UPPER TEENS SO COULD SEE SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION WHICH COULD LAST
INTO SAT NIGHT. BEST LIFT MOVES CLOSER DURING LATE SAT/SAT NIGHT SO
WILL SEE SCT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. A PWAT SWATH OF 1.6 TO
1.75 INCHES PUSHES OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SO MAY SEE SOME HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS WITH ANY CONVECTION.  WILL SEE QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE
EARLY SATURDAY...SO TEMPS WILL REBOUND TO THE 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS
EXCEPT THE LOWER-MID 70S ALONG S COASTAL AREAS.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING...THEN
REACHES THE S COAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECT CHANCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. STILL SOME TIMING ISSUES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF
BUT A BIT BETTER FOR THIS TIMEFRAME. WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE
FRONT...EXPECT SCT PRECIP TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUN NIGHT.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...SOMEWHAT LOWER CONFIDENCE DUE TO TIMING AND
PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES WITH THE FRONT AND WHETHER IT STALLS NEAR THE
S COAST OR OFFSHORE. AT THIS POINT...KEPT CHANCE POPS ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH MIDDAY THEN SHOULD PUSH JUST OFFSHORE BUT
MAY LINGER ACROSS THE ISLANDS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY SUNDAY. MAY
SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS EARLY...THEN INSTABILITY WORKS OFFSHORE BUT
COULD STILL SEE SOME SHOWERS WHILE HIGH PRES MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND.

HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING FOR SOUTHERN AREAS INTO TUESDAY
AS FRONT LOOKS TO LINGER...THEN MAY TRY TO MAKE A RUN BACK NE AS THE
HIGH PUSHES OFF INTO THE GULF OF MAINE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ANY LEFTOVER SHOWERS ACROSS NW MA
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 03Z...BUT MAY PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR TO START...THEN DETERIORATING TO MVFR-IFR
IN AREAS OF FOG ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS. COULD
SEE PASSING SHOWER OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR ALONG THE SOUTH COAST DURING
THE MORNING SHOULD PUSH OFFSHORE. ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE INTERIOR... DROPPING TO MVFR WITHIN ANY -SHRA/-TSRA THAT
DEVELOPS. EXPECT SW WINDS TO GUST UP TO 20-25 KT AT TIMES MAINLY
ACROSS RI/SE MA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO
IFR ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS AS MARITIME FOG AND
STRATUS ROLLS BACK IN.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. COULD SEE CONDITIONS DROP
TO MVFR WITHIN A POP-UP THUNDERSTORM TODAY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR. WILL SEE SCT -SHRA/TSRA WITH LOCAL MVFR-IFR
CONDITIONS. EXPECT AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP DURING THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING PERIOD WITH IFR-LIFR VSBYS.

FRIDAY...VFR. MAY SEE LOCAL MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS EARLY FRI MORNING
ALONG S COAST IN PATCHY FOG...THEN WILL LOWER AGAIN LATE FRI
NIGHT/SAT MORNING TO MVFR-IFR.

SATURDAY...PATCHY FOG EARLY SAT MORNING WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE. SCT SHRA/TSRA SAT THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH LOCAL MVFR-
IFR CONDITIONS. SW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KT MAINLY ALONG THE COAST
SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING.

SUNDAY...SCT SHOWERS TSTMS LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD END
SUN NIGHT. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE UP THROUGH TONIGHT...MAINLY ON THE
OUTER WATERS FOR SEAS AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. SEAS WILL CLIMB TO
5 FEET AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE PERIOD. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
WILL EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT FOR THE INNER WATERS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL DIMINISH...BUT MAY LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET.

IN ADDITION...AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ON THE
WATERS TONIGHT...SUBSTANTIALLY REDUCING VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY...EXPECT SW WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KT. SEAS BUILD TO
AROUND 5 FT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS TO THE OUTER WATERS E OF CAPE
COD...BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT THU NIGHT. VSBYS REDUCED IN
AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DENSE OFFSHORE BOTH THU AND FRI NIGHTS.

FRIDAY...LIGHT N-NE WINDS BECOME E DURING THE DAY...THEN SHIFT TO
S-SW FRI NIGHT. EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SW WINDS MAY BRIEFLY GUST TO 25 KT DURING SAT ON
THE EASTERN WATERS...OTHERWISE EXPECT GUSTS UP TO 20 KT SEAS BUILD
AGAIN TO AROUND 5 FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS...WHICH WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE LATE SUN OR SUN NIGHT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/EVT
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN/RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...RLG/EVT
MARINE...RLG/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 270205
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1005 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE THROUGH TOMORROW.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY...
WITH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY HAVING THE HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

1000 PM UPDATE...

ANY LEFT OVER SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED THIS EVENING. SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND CONTINUES TO REMAIN IN THE WARM MOIST SECTOR AS WARM FRONT
IS WELL NORTH WITH A COLD FRONT WELL TO THE WEST. WE HAVE ALREADY
STARTED TO TAP INTO THE GULF MOISTURE SO PWATS ARE ON THE INCREASE
AS WELL. LOW CONFIDENCE IF ANY SHOWER WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS
WE DO HAVE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY...BUT LACK THE TRIGGER
MECHANISM.

TEMPERATURES ARE SLOW TO DROP THIS EVENING WITH MANY SITES STILL
IN THE 70S AWAY FROM THE SOUTH COAST/CAPE AND ISLANDS. BIGGEST
QUESTION IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG. VSBYS ARE SLOWLY DROPPING
ACROSS ACK AND MVY...BUT FEEL THAT STRATUS MAY BE THE BIGGEST
ISSUE OVERNIGHT. WILL WAIT AND SEE LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS TO
DETERMINE FOG POTENTIAL...BUT RIGHT NOW HAVE A LOW CONFIDENCE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL START TO
BREAK DOWN WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS COULD LEAD TO A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.  MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE WAS DRY BUT THE
GFS HAS BEEN INDICATING NOT JUST SPRINKLES BUT A GOOD TWO TENTHS OF
AN INCH OF PRECIP.  FEEL THIS MAY BE SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK FROM
THE CONVECTION OVER NEW YORK AND PA THIS EVENING.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT SOME CLOUDINESS AND THAT WITH THE MOIST
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO MUCH.
EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 60S.  THAT WARM...MOIST AIR
FLOWING OVER THE COLDER OCEAN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AREAS OF DENSE
FOG OVER THE OCEAN AND BLEEDING ONTO THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND
ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY DAY FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH
TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 80S IN THE CONNECTICUT AND
MERRIMACK VALLEYS WITH MID 80S ELSEWHERE.  EXCEPTION TO THIS IS
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS WHERE BOTH ONSHORE WINDS
AND PERHAPS LINGERING MARINE STRATUS AND FOG WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM CLIMBING.  EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S IN THESE
LOCATIONS.

THIS LOOKS LIKE THE BETTER DAY FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  HOWEVER...THIS DOESN/T APPEAR TO OCCUR
UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  INSTABILITY IS A BIT BETTER THAN
IT WAS TODAY BUT IS STILL SOMEWHAT LACKING AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
LEAVE PLENTY TO BE DESIRED.  THE MAIN FOCUS FOR STORMS WILL BE OVER
NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA WHERE THE BETTER INSTABILITY AND FOCUSING
WILL BE.  THESE STORMS...MUCH LIKE TODAY...WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN PART OF THE CWA TOWARDS THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
WHILE THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE...THE
MOST LIKELY THREATS WITH THESE STORMS ARE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY
WINDS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST
INTO THE EVENING AS WIND SHEAR INCREASES WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
MOVING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  ANOTHER WARM NIGHT IN STORE WITH
LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

TO START OFF...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES KEEP OVERALL UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER 48...WITH RIDGING ALONG OR
JUST E OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND TROUGHING ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO
THE SOUTHWEST. MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL SLOW DEAMPLIFICATION
OF THE UPPER PATTERN GOING INTO THIS WEEKEND...WITH RIDGE AXIS
FLATTENING OUT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AS A SURFACE FRONT THAT TRIES TO
WORK ACROSS THE REGION WASHES OUT DURING FRIDAY. BERMUDA HIGH RE-
ESTABLISHES FOR EARLY THIS WEEKEND WHILE ANOTHER FRONT WORKS SE OUT
OF QUEBEC. THIS FRONT LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH TO WORK SLOWLY SE AS THE
WESTERN ATLC RIDGE SHIFTS S AND UPPER TROUGHING TAKES OVER ACROSS
THE NORTHERN STREAM. BIG QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER THE FRONT WILL
CLEAR OFF THE S COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK OR WILL IT STALL CLOSER TO OR
OVER SOUTHERN AREAS.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...
THOUGH DID LEAN TOWARD MORE TOWARD THE ENSEMBLES FROM THIS WEEKEND
ONWARD DUE TO TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT. FOR THE
LATTER TIMEFRAME...LEANED CLOSER TO THE SLOWER ECMWF AND ECENS
MEANS.

DETAILS...

THURSDAY...WILL SEE LEFTOVER SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS WESTERN AREAS
THU MORNING WITH PWATS ON ORDER OF AROUND 1.5 INCHES. THE FRONT
SHIFTS S TAKING THE HIGHER PWAT AIR WITH IT...SO EXPECT THE PRECIP
TO TEND TO WEAKEN THOUGH WILL LINGER WHERE MILDER TEMPS ARE THANKS
TO DIURNAL INFLUENCES. INSTABILITY ALSO SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND WEAKENS
SO EXPECT ANY THUNDERSTORMS TO TAPER OFF BY AROUND MIDDAY. BEST SHOT
FOR PRECIP WILL BE FROM THE MERRIMACK VALLEY SE ACROSS CENTRAL MA TO
THE MID AND LOWER CT VALLEY. CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW QUICK DOWNPOURS
THROUGH MIDDAY WITH THE HIGHER PWAT AIRMASS. WILL SEE AREAS OF
FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...DEVELOP ACROSS S COASTAL AREAS THU NIGHT INTO
FRI MORNING.

FRIDAY...MODELS STARTED TO SIGNAL DRIER AIR WORKING IN ON MONDAY...
BUT MOST OF THE MODEL SUITE HAS HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDING S OUT OF
QUEBEC SO EXPECT A DRY BUT MILD DAY. DEWPTS DROP A BIT...DOWN TO THE
50S...BUT WILL BEGIN TO RISE AGAIN FRI NIGHT. WILL SEE A LIGHT E-SE
WIND FLOW SO WILL BE COOLER ALONG THE COAST...HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
70S EXCEPT 65-70 ACROSS COASTAL AREAS...RANGING TO THE LOWER TO MID
80S ACROSS THE CT VALLEY.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REPOSITIONS OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD SO SW
WINDS KICK IN AGAIN BRINGING A RETURN TO MORE HUMID AIR. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT START TO APPROACH OUT OF GREAT LAKES AND WESTERN QUEBEC.
ALSO NOTING INCREASING INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...
WITH K INDICES RISING TO THE LOWER-MID 30S AND TQ VALUES IN THE
UPPER TEENS SO COULD SEE SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION WHICH COULD LAST
INTO SAT NIGHT. BEST LIFT MOVES CLOSER DURING LATE SAT/SAT NIGHT SO
WILL SEE SCT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. A PWAT SWATH OF 1.6 TO
1.75 INCHES PUSHES OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SO MAY SEE SOME HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS WITH ANY CONVECTION.  WILL SEE QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE
EARLY SATURDAY...SO TEMPS WILL REBOUND TO THE 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS
EXCEPT THE LOWER-MID 70S ALONG S COASTAL AREAS.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING...THEN
REACHES THE S COAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECT CHANCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. STILL SOME TIMING ISSUES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF
BUT A BIT BETTER FOR THIS TIMEFRAME. WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE
FRONT...EXPECT SCT PRECIP TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUN NIGHT.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...SOMEWHAT LOWER CONFIDENCE DUE TO TIMING AND
PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES WITH THE FRONT AND WHETHER IT STALLS NEAR THE
S COAST OR OFFSHORE. AT THIS POINT...KEPT CHANCE POPS ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH MIDDAY THEN SHOULD PUSH JUST OFFSHORE BUT
MAY LINGER ACROSS THE ISLANDS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY SUNDAY. MAY
SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS EARLY...THEN INSTABILITY WORKS OFFSHORE BUT
COULD STILL SEE SOME SHOWERS WHILE HIGH PRES MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND.

HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING FOR SOUTHERN AREAS INTO TUESDAY
AS FRONT LOOKS TO LINGER...THEN MAY TRY TO MAKE A RUN BACK NE AS THE
HIGH PUSHES OFF INTO THE GULF OF MAINE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ANY LEFTOVER SHOWERS ACROSS NW MA
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 03Z...BUT MAY PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR TO START...THEN DETERIORATING TO MVFR-IFR
IN AREAS OF FOG ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS. COULD
SEE PASSING SHOWER OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR ALONG THE SOUTH COAST DURING
THE MORNING SHOULD PUSH OFFSHORE. ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE INTERIOR... DROPPING TO MVFR WITHIN ANY -SHRA/-TSRA THAT
DEVELOPS. EXPECT SW WINDS TO GUST UP TO 20-25 KT AT TIMES MAINLY
ACROSS RI/SE MA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO
IFR ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS AS MARITIME FOG AND
STRATUS ROLLS BACK IN.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. COULD SEE CONDITIONS DROP
TO MVFR WITHIN A POP-UP THUNDERSTORM TODAY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR. WILL SEE SCT -SHRA/TSRA WITH LOCAL MVFR-IFR
CONDITIONS. EXPECT AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP DURING THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING PERIOD WITH IFR-LIFR VSBYS.

FRIDAY...VFR. MAY SEE LOCAL MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS EARLY FRI MORNING
ALONG S COAST IN PATCHY FOG...THEN WILL LOWER AGAIN LATE FRI
NIGHT/SAT MORNING TO MVFR-IFR.

SATURDAY...PATCHY FOG EARLY SAT MORNING WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE. SCT SHRA/TSRA SAT THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH LOCAL MVFR-
IFR CONDITIONS. SW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KT MAINLY ALONG THE COAST
SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING.

SUNDAY...SCT SHOWERS TSTMS LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD END
SUN NIGHT. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE UP THROUGH TONIGHT...MAINLY ON THE
OUTER WATERS FOR SEAS AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. SEAS WILL CLIMB TO
5 FEET AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE PERIOD. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
WILL EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT FOR THE INNER WATERS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL DIMINISH...BUT MAY LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET.

IN ADDITION...AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ON THE
WATERS TONIGHT...SUBSTANTIALLY REDUCING VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY...EXPECT SW WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KT. SEAS BUILD TO
AROUND 5 FT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS TO THE OUTER WATERS E OF CAPE
COD...BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT THU NIGHT. VSBYS REDUCED IN
AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DENSE OFFSHORE BOTH THU AND FRI NIGHTS.

FRIDAY...LIGHT N-NE WINDS BECOME E DURING THE DAY...THEN SHIFT TO
S-SW FRI NIGHT. EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SW WINDS MAY BRIEFLY GUST TO 25 KT DURING SAT ON
THE EASTERN WATERS...OTHERWISE EXPECT GUSTS UP TO 20 KT SEAS BUILD
AGAIN TO AROUND 5 FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS...WHICH WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE LATE SUN OR SUN NIGHT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/EVT
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN/RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...RLG/EVT
MARINE...RLG/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 270205
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1005 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE THROUGH TOMORROW.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY...
WITH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY HAVING THE HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

1000 PM UPDATE...

ANY LEFT OVER SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED THIS EVENING. SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND CONTINUES TO REMAIN IN THE WARM MOIST SECTOR AS WARM FRONT
IS WELL NORTH WITH A COLD FRONT WELL TO THE WEST. WE HAVE ALREADY
STARTED TO TAP INTO THE GULF MOISTURE SO PWATS ARE ON THE INCREASE
AS WELL. LOW CONFIDENCE IF ANY SHOWER WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS
WE DO HAVE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY...BUT LACK THE TRIGGER
MECHANISM.

TEMPERATURES ARE SLOW TO DROP THIS EVENING WITH MANY SITES STILL
IN THE 70S AWAY FROM THE SOUTH COAST/CAPE AND ISLANDS. BIGGEST
QUESTION IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG. VSBYS ARE SLOWLY DROPPING
ACROSS ACK AND MVY...BUT FEEL THAT STRATUS MAY BE THE BIGGEST
ISSUE OVERNIGHT. WILL WAIT AND SEE LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS TO
DETERMINE FOG POTENTIAL...BUT RIGHT NOW HAVE A LOW CONFIDENCE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL START TO
BREAK DOWN WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS COULD LEAD TO A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.  MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE WAS DRY BUT THE
GFS HAS BEEN INDICATING NOT JUST SPRINKLES BUT A GOOD TWO TENTHS OF
AN INCH OF PRECIP.  FEEL THIS MAY BE SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK FROM
THE CONVECTION OVER NEW YORK AND PA THIS EVENING.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT SOME CLOUDINESS AND THAT WITH THE MOIST
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO MUCH.
EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 60S.  THAT WARM...MOIST AIR
FLOWING OVER THE COLDER OCEAN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AREAS OF DENSE
FOG OVER THE OCEAN AND BLEEDING ONTO THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND
ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY DAY FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH
TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 80S IN THE CONNECTICUT AND
MERRIMACK VALLEYS WITH MID 80S ELSEWHERE.  EXCEPTION TO THIS IS
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS WHERE BOTH ONSHORE WINDS
AND PERHAPS LINGERING MARINE STRATUS AND FOG WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM CLIMBING.  EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S IN THESE
LOCATIONS.

THIS LOOKS LIKE THE BETTER DAY FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  HOWEVER...THIS DOESN/T APPEAR TO OCCUR
UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  INSTABILITY IS A BIT BETTER THAN
IT WAS TODAY BUT IS STILL SOMEWHAT LACKING AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
LEAVE PLENTY TO BE DESIRED.  THE MAIN FOCUS FOR STORMS WILL BE OVER
NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA WHERE THE BETTER INSTABILITY AND FOCUSING
WILL BE.  THESE STORMS...MUCH LIKE TODAY...WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN PART OF THE CWA TOWARDS THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
WHILE THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE...THE
MOST LIKELY THREATS WITH THESE STORMS ARE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY
WINDS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST
INTO THE EVENING AS WIND SHEAR INCREASES WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
MOVING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  ANOTHER WARM NIGHT IN STORE WITH
LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

TO START OFF...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES KEEP OVERALL UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER 48...WITH RIDGING ALONG OR
JUST E OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND TROUGHING ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO
THE SOUTHWEST. MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL SLOW DEAMPLIFICATION
OF THE UPPER PATTERN GOING INTO THIS WEEKEND...WITH RIDGE AXIS
FLATTENING OUT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AS A SURFACE FRONT THAT TRIES TO
WORK ACROSS THE REGION WASHES OUT DURING FRIDAY. BERMUDA HIGH RE-
ESTABLISHES FOR EARLY THIS WEEKEND WHILE ANOTHER FRONT WORKS SE OUT
OF QUEBEC. THIS FRONT LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH TO WORK SLOWLY SE AS THE
WESTERN ATLC RIDGE SHIFTS S AND UPPER TROUGHING TAKES OVER ACROSS
THE NORTHERN STREAM. BIG QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER THE FRONT WILL
CLEAR OFF THE S COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK OR WILL IT STALL CLOSER TO OR
OVER SOUTHERN AREAS.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...
THOUGH DID LEAN TOWARD MORE TOWARD THE ENSEMBLES FROM THIS WEEKEND
ONWARD DUE TO TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT. FOR THE
LATTER TIMEFRAME...LEANED CLOSER TO THE SLOWER ECMWF AND ECENS
MEANS.

DETAILS...

THURSDAY...WILL SEE LEFTOVER SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS WESTERN AREAS
THU MORNING WITH PWATS ON ORDER OF AROUND 1.5 INCHES. THE FRONT
SHIFTS S TAKING THE HIGHER PWAT AIR WITH IT...SO EXPECT THE PRECIP
TO TEND TO WEAKEN THOUGH WILL LINGER WHERE MILDER TEMPS ARE THANKS
TO DIURNAL INFLUENCES. INSTABILITY ALSO SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND WEAKENS
SO EXPECT ANY THUNDERSTORMS TO TAPER OFF BY AROUND MIDDAY. BEST SHOT
FOR PRECIP WILL BE FROM THE MERRIMACK VALLEY SE ACROSS CENTRAL MA TO
THE MID AND LOWER CT VALLEY. CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW QUICK DOWNPOURS
THROUGH MIDDAY WITH THE HIGHER PWAT AIRMASS. WILL SEE AREAS OF
FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...DEVELOP ACROSS S COASTAL AREAS THU NIGHT INTO
FRI MORNING.

FRIDAY...MODELS STARTED TO SIGNAL DRIER AIR WORKING IN ON MONDAY...
BUT MOST OF THE MODEL SUITE HAS HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDING S OUT OF
QUEBEC SO EXPECT A DRY BUT MILD DAY. DEWPTS DROP A BIT...DOWN TO THE
50S...BUT WILL BEGIN TO RISE AGAIN FRI NIGHT. WILL SEE A LIGHT E-SE
WIND FLOW SO WILL BE COOLER ALONG THE COAST...HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
70S EXCEPT 65-70 ACROSS COASTAL AREAS...RANGING TO THE LOWER TO MID
80S ACROSS THE CT VALLEY.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REPOSITIONS OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD SO SW
WINDS KICK IN AGAIN BRINGING A RETURN TO MORE HUMID AIR. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT START TO APPROACH OUT OF GREAT LAKES AND WESTERN QUEBEC.
ALSO NOTING INCREASING INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...
WITH K INDICES RISING TO THE LOWER-MID 30S AND TQ VALUES IN THE
UPPER TEENS SO COULD SEE SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION WHICH COULD LAST
INTO SAT NIGHT. BEST LIFT MOVES CLOSER DURING LATE SAT/SAT NIGHT SO
WILL SEE SCT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. A PWAT SWATH OF 1.6 TO
1.75 INCHES PUSHES OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SO MAY SEE SOME HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS WITH ANY CONVECTION.  WILL SEE QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE
EARLY SATURDAY...SO TEMPS WILL REBOUND TO THE 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS
EXCEPT THE LOWER-MID 70S ALONG S COASTAL AREAS.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING...THEN
REACHES THE S COAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECT CHANCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. STILL SOME TIMING ISSUES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF
BUT A BIT BETTER FOR THIS TIMEFRAME. WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE
FRONT...EXPECT SCT PRECIP TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUN NIGHT.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...SOMEWHAT LOWER CONFIDENCE DUE TO TIMING AND
PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES WITH THE FRONT AND WHETHER IT STALLS NEAR THE
S COAST OR OFFSHORE. AT THIS POINT...KEPT CHANCE POPS ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH MIDDAY THEN SHOULD PUSH JUST OFFSHORE BUT
MAY LINGER ACROSS THE ISLANDS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY SUNDAY. MAY
SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS EARLY...THEN INSTABILITY WORKS OFFSHORE BUT
COULD STILL SEE SOME SHOWERS WHILE HIGH PRES MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND.

HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING FOR SOUTHERN AREAS INTO TUESDAY
AS FRONT LOOKS TO LINGER...THEN MAY TRY TO MAKE A RUN BACK NE AS THE
HIGH PUSHES OFF INTO THE GULF OF MAINE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ANY LEFTOVER SHOWERS ACROSS NW MA
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 03Z...BUT MAY PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR TO START...THEN DETERIORATING TO MVFR-IFR
IN AREAS OF FOG ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS. COULD
SEE PASSING SHOWER OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR ALONG THE SOUTH COAST DURING
THE MORNING SHOULD PUSH OFFSHORE. ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE INTERIOR... DROPPING TO MVFR WITHIN ANY -SHRA/-TSRA THAT
DEVELOPS. EXPECT SW WINDS TO GUST UP TO 20-25 KT AT TIMES MAINLY
ACROSS RI/SE MA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO
IFR ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS AS MARITIME FOG AND
STRATUS ROLLS BACK IN.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. COULD SEE CONDITIONS DROP
TO MVFR WITHIN A POP-UP THUNDERSTORM TODAY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR. WILL SEE SCT -SHRA/TSRA WITH LOCAL MVFR-IFR
CONDITIONS. EXPECT AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP DURING THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING PERIOD WITH IFR-LIFR VSBYS.

FRIDAY...VFR. MAY SEE LOCAL MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS EARLY FRI MORNING
ALONG S COAST IN PATCHY FOG...THEN WILL LOWER AGAIN LATE FRI
NIGHT/SAT MORNING TO MVFR-IFR.

SATURDAY...PATCHY FOG EARLY SAT MORNING WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE. SCT SHRA/TSRA SAT THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH LOCAL MVFR-
IFR CONDITIONS. SW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KT MAINLY ALONG THE COAST
SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING.

SUNDAY...SCT SHOWERS TSTMS LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD END
SUN NIGHT. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE UP THROUGH TONIGHT...MAINLY ON THE
OUTER WATERS FOR SEAS AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. SEAS WILL CLIMB TO
5 FEET AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE PERIOD. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
WILL EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT FOR THE INNER WATERS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL DIMINISH...BUT MAY LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET.

IN ADDITION...AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ON THE
WATERS TONIGHT...SUBSTANTIALLY REDUCING VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY...EXPECT SW WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KT. SEAS BUILD TO
AROUND 5 FT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS TO THE OUTER WATERS E OF CAPE
COD...BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT THU NIGHT. VSBYS REDUCED IN
AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DENSE OFFSHORE BOTH THU AND FRI NIGHTS.

FRIDAY...LIGHT N-NE WINDS BECOME E DURING THE DAY...THEN SHIFT TO
S-SW FRI NIGHT. EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SW WINDS MAY BRIEFLY GUST TO 25 KT DURING SAT ON
THE EASTERN WATERS...OTHERWISE EXPECT GUSTS UP TO 20 KT SEAS BUILD
AGAIN TO AROUND 5 FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS...WHICH WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE LATE SUN OR SUN NIGHT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/EVT
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN/RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...RLG/EVT
MARINE...RLG/EVT




000
FXUS61 KALY 270132
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
932 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH AN INCREASING THREAT
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY
CONTAIN STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL ON WEDNESDAY. MORE
TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS RETURN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FOR THE LAST WEEKEND OF MAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 930 PM EDT...HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS ACTIVITY HAS
DIMINISHED ACROSS FA. HAVE LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR LATE TONIGHT AS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO ADVECT INTO OUR REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. OVERALL A PT-MOCLOUDY SKY AND HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS
WILL RESULT IN A RATHER WARM/MUGGY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION WITH
MAINLY 60S EXPECTED FOR LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR MOST OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED
MOST OF OUR REGION WITHIN THE SLIGHT RISK CATEGORY ON WEDNESDAY.
THE COMBINATION OF A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE WITH PWATS CLIMBING IN
EXCESS OF 1.75 INCHES...SURFACE DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S...SOME
GRADUAL HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS FOR
ENHANCING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO INTERACT WITH INCREASING
BUOYANCY AS SBCAPES CLIMB TOWARD 2K J/KG...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL IS ON THE INCREASE. A DEPARTING UPPER JET WITH ENTRANCE
REGION DYNAMICS AND SHEAR PROFILES INCREASING TO AROUND 30KTS
SHOULD RESULT IN SOME ORGANIZATION. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW
MUCH INSOLATION WE WILL RECEIVE AS THE NCEP MODEL SUITE DOES
SUGGEST AMPLE MOISTURE...ALTHOUGH...MODELS DO TEND TO
OVERESTIMATE. SO WE WILL ADD SOME ENHANCED WORDING TO THE
FORECAST/GRIDS AT THIS TIME. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...MOS GUIDANCE IS
WARMER ON THE MET MOS THAN THE MAV MOS...WE WILL FAVOR THE WARMER
SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

THE FRONTAL AXIS IS PROGGED TO BE OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING
THE EVENING WITH A DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE
CONVECTION AT THAT TIME. HOWEVER...THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND
MAIN UPPER TROUGH HAS YET TO APPROACH SO WE WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS
IN THE GRIDS OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY. IN
FACT...TRENDS IN THE 12Z GUIDANCE ARE A LITTLE FASTER WITH THESE
FEATURES WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. AS FOR THURSDAY HIGHS...AN ENSEMBLE
APPROACH OF THE H850 THERMAL FIELDS SUGGEST COLD ADVECTION WILL BE
OCCURRING THROUGH THE DAY WITH LESS THAN 10C FOR THE DACKS. WE
WILL THEREFORE KEEP TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 65-70F FOR THESE AREAS
AND KEEP 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN MAGNITUDES AS
GUSTS WELL INTO THE 20KTS ARE EXPECTED.

SUBSIDENCE INCREASES QUICKLY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH RISING SURFACE
PRESSURES AND A MUCH DRIER ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN ADVECTING INTO THE
REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE CLEARING SKIES...DIMINISHING WINDS AND
A MORE COMFORTABLE NIGHT AS LOWS DIP BACK INTO THE 50S FOR MOST OF
THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRI-SAT SHOULD TREND BACK TO NEAR...OR
POSSIBLY EVEN A BIT BELOW NORMAL BY SUN-TUE...AS THE EAST COAST
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEAMPLIFIES WITH THE APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
FROM SOUTHERN CANADA. AS IT DEAMPLIFIES...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION SOMETIME LATE SAT OR EARLY SUN. THIS SHOULD BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. DEPENDING ON ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE INCOMING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES/SE CANADA...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE COLD
FRONT SLOWS DOWN AND/OR A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG IT AND TRACKS SOUTH OF
THE REGION. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...SHOWERS OR EVEN A PERIOD OF STEADY
RAIN COULD LINGER IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR SUN INTO EARLY
MON...ESP ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.

SO...INITIALLY EXPECT DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY AS UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE ONCE AGAIN. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE
MODERATE...SO DESPITE MAX TEMPS REACHING THE MID/UPPER 80S IN
PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...APPARENT TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY
REMAIN BELOW 90. FRI NT/SAT AM SHOULD REMAIN DRY...BUT WARM...WITH
MIN TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 60S FOR MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND 55-60 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

FOR SAT-MON...THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT SHOULD APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATER SAT...AND SLOWLY PRESS SOUTH AND EAST SAT NT INTO
EARLY SUN. WILL INDICATE HIGH CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS FOR
SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR SAT AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...GRADUALLY TAPERING
DOWNWARD FROM NW TO SE ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST THE FRONT REACHES...AND WHETHER A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO
LOW CHC FOR MOST CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS INTO MON. MAX TEMPS
SHOULD BE RATHER WARM SAT...WITH TEMPS REACHING 85-90 IN VALLEYS AND
LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. DEWPOINTS SHOULD RISE INTO
THE LOWER 60S...SO APPARENT TEMPS SHOULD BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
ACTUAL HIGH TEMPS OF 85-90. SAT NT/SUN AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
50S TO LOWER 60S...THEN EXPECT COOLER MAX TEMPS FOR SUN INTO
MON...WITH MAXES MAINLY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S SUN...AND MAINLY 60S
FOR MON. SUN NT/MON AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

MON NT-TUE...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACHES. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO LOW
CHC POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. MON
NT/TUE AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S...WITH TUE
MAX TEMPS REACHING 70-75 FOR MOST VALLEYS...AND 65-70 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL MAINTAIN A WARM
AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...ESP FOR
KPOU AND KPSF.

A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING WILL BE AT KPOU AND KPSF. THERE COULD BE BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITHIN ANY HEAVIER DOWNPOURS.

AFTER SUNSET...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD WEAKEN.
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAINFALL OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...THERE COULD BE AREAS OF MVFR OR BORDERLINE IFR CIGS/VSBYS
LATER TONIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT KPSF.

ON WEDNESDAY...AFTER ANY PATCHY LOW CLOUDS/FOG BURN OFF...EXPECT
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z/WED. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP AFTER 18Z/WED...WITH INCREASING CHANCES THEREAFTER. FOR
NOW HAVE PLACED -SHRA IN TAFS AFT 18Z.

WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AT MAINLY
5-10 KT. ON WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND
INCREASE TO 8-12 KT...WITH GUSTS OF 15-22 KT ONCE AGAIN BY LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE STRONGER...AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION IN AND NEAR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WED TO WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

FRIDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS IN THE 50S.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...MAINLY ON WEDNESDAY.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED MODERATE
DROUGHT AT THIS TIME.

WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE BETTER AND MORE
WIDESPREAD CHANCES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INT0 THE EVENING.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.75+ INCHES ARE EXPECTED SO STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM/11
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...KL/WASULA
AVIATION...KL/11
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM




000
FXUS61 KALY 270132
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
932 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH AN INCREASING THREAT
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY
CONTAIN STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL ON WEDNESDAY. MORE
TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS RETURN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FOR THE LAST WEEKEND OF MAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 930 PM EDT...HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS ACTIVITY HAS
DIMINISHED ACROSS FA. HAVE LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR LATE TONIGHT AS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO ADVECT INTO OUR REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. OVERALL A PT-MOCLOUDY SKY AND HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS
WILL RESULT IN A RATHER WARM/MUGGY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION WITH
MAINLY 60S EXPECTED FOR LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR MOST OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED
MOST OF OUR REGION WITHIN THE SLIGHT RISK CATEGORY ON WEDNESDAY.
THE COMBINATION OF A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE WITH PWATS CLIMBING IN
EXCESS OF 1.75 INCHES...SURFACE DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S...SOME
GRADUAL HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS FOR
ENHANCING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO INTERACT WITH INCREASING
BUOYANCY AS SBCAPES CLIMB TOWARD 2K J/KG...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL IS ON THE INCREASE. A DEPARTING UPPER JET WITH ENTRANCE
REGION DYNAMICS AND SHEAR PROFILES INCREASING TO AROUND 30KTS
SHOULD RESULT IN SOME ORGANIZATION. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW
MUCH INSOLATION WE WILL RECEIVE AS THE NCEP MODEL SUITE DOES
SUGGEST AMPLE MOISTURE...ALTHOUGH...MODELS DO TEND TO
OVERESTIMATE. SO WE WILL ADD SOME ENHANCED WORDING TO THE
FORECAST/GRIDS AT THIS TIME. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...MOS GUIDANCE IS
WARMER ON THE MET MOS THAN THE MAV MOS...WE WILL FAVOR THE WARMER
SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

THE FRONTAL AXIS IS PROGGED TO BE OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING
THE EVENING WITH A DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE
CONVECTION AT THAT TIME. HOWEVER...THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND
MAIN UPPER TROUGH HAS YET TO APPROACH SO WE WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS
IN THE GRIDS OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY. IN
FACT...TRENDS IN THE 12Z GUIDANCE ARE A LITTLE FASTER WITH THESE
FEATURES WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. AS FOR THURSDAY HIGHS...AN ENSEMBLE
APPROACH OF THE H850 THERMAL FIELDS SUGGEST COLD ADVECTION WILL BE
OCCURRING THROUGH THE DAY WITH LESS THAN 10C FOR THE DACKS. WE
WILL THEREFORE KEEP TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 65-70F FOR THESE AREAS
AND KEEP 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN MAGNITUDES AS
GUSTS WELL INTO THE 20KTS ARE EXPECTED.

SUBSIDENCE INCREASES QUICKLY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH RISING SURFACE
PRESSURES AND A MUCH DRIER ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN ADVECTING INTO THE
REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE CLEARING SKIES...DIMINISHING WINDS AND
A MORE COMFORTABLE NIGHT AS LOWS DIP BACK INTO THE 50S FOR MOST OF
THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRI-SAT SHOULD TREND BACK TO NEAR...OR
POSSIBLY EVEN A BIT BELOW NORMAL BY SUN-TUE...AS THE EAST COAST
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEAMPLIFIES WITH THE APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
FROM SOUTHERN CANADA. AS IT DEAMPLIFIES...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION SOMETIME LATE SAT OR EARLY SUN. THIS SHOULD BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. DEPENDING ON ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE INCOMING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES/SE CANADA...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE COLD
FRONT SLOWS DOWN AND/OR A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG IT AND TRACKS SOUTH OF
THE REGION. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...SHOWERS OR EVEN A PERIOD OF STEADY
RAIN COULD LINGER IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR SUN INTO EARLY
MON...ESP ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.

SO...INITIALLY EXPECT DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY AS UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE ONCE AGAIN. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE
MODERATE...SO DESPITE MAX TEMPS REACHING THE MID/UPPER 80S IN
PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...APPARENT TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY
REMAIN BELOW 90. FRI NT/SAT AM SHOULD REMAIN DRY...BUT WARM...WITH
MIN TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 60S FOR MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND 55-60 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

FOR SAT-MON...THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT SHOULD APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATER SAT...AND SLOWLY PRESS SOUTH AND EAST SAT NT INTO
EARLY SUN. WILL INDICATE HIGH CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS FOR
SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR SAT AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...GRADUALLY TAPERING
DOWNWARD FROM NW TO SE ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST THE FRONT REACHES...AND WHETHER A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO
LOW CHC FOR MOST CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS INTO MON. MAX TEMPS
SHOULD BE RATHER WARM SAT...WITH TEMPS REACHING 85-90 IN VALLEYS AND
LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. DEWPOINTS SHOULD RISE INTO
THE LOWER 60S...SO APPARENT TEMPS SHOULD BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
ACTUAL HIGH TEMPS OF 85-90. SAT NT/SUN AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
50S TO LOWER 60S...THEN EXPECT COOLER MAX TEMPS FOR SUN INTO
MON...WITH MAXES MAINLY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S SUN...AND MAINLY 60S
FOR MON. SUN NT/MON AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

MON NT-TUE...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACHES. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO LOW
CHC POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. MON
NT/TUE AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S...WITH TUE
MAX TEMPS REACHING 70-75 FOR MOST VALLEYS...AND 65-70 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL MAINTAIN A WARM
AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...ESP FOR
KPOU AND KPSF.

A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING WILL BE AT KPOU AND KPSF. THERE COULD BE BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITHIN ANY HEAVIER DOWNPOURS.

AFTER SUNSET...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD WEAKEN.
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAINFALL OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...THERE COULD BE AREAS OF MVFR OR BORDERLINE IFR CIGS/VSBYS
LATER TONIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT KPSF.

ON WEDNESDAY...AFTER ANY PATCHY LOW CLOUDS/FOG BURN OFF...EXPECT
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z/WED. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP AFTER 18Z/WED...WITH INCREASING CHANCES THEREAFTER. FOR
NOW HAVE PLACED -SHRA IN TAFS AFT 18Z.

WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AT MAINLY
5-10 KT. ON WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND
INCREASE TO 8-12 KT...WITH GUSTS OF 15-22 KT ONCE AGAIN BY LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE STRONGER...AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION IN AND NEAR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WED TO WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

FRIDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS IN THE 50S.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...MAINLY ON WEDNESDAY.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED MODERATE
DROUGHT AT THIS TIME.

WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE BETTER AND MORE
WIDESPREAD CHANCES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INT0 THE EVENING.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.75+ INCHES ARE EXPECTED SO STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM/11
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...KL/WASULA
AVIATION...KL/11
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM



000
FXUS61 KOKX 270028
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
828 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS ANCHORED WELL OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH
THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND DISSIPATE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. A
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL THEN IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
WEAKENING SHOWERS HAVE MOVED NORTH OF ORANGE AND PUTNAM COUNTIES
THIS EVENING...WITH NO OTHER ACTIVITY IMMINENTLY THREATENING THE
AREA. MINOR UPDATES TO THE GRIDS TO REMOVE POPS UNTIL AFT 06Z WHEN
A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDE COULD TRIGGER A SHOWER OR TSTM. MUCH OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE
KEEPS US DRY...BUT FEEL IT IS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION
THAT A SHOWER OR STORM DEVELOPS WITH THIS SHORTWAVE AND WEAK
ELEVATED INSTABILITY. HAVE CAPPED POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS. THE GFS IS THE WETTEST MODEL DURING THIS TIMEFRAME AND
IS LIKELY OVERDOING QPF.

TEMPS ARE NOT COOLING AS QUICKLY AS FORECAST...SO ADJUSTMENTS
NEEDED HERE AS WELL.

PATCHY FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE TOWARDS MORNING. THERE IS A LOW CHC
THAT FOG BECOMES LOCALLY DENSE NEAR THE COAST...BUT IT REMAINS
UNCERTAIN HOW WIDESPREAD THIS WOULD END UP BEING. THERE IS A
GREATER LIKELIHOOD FOR STRATUS TO DEVELOP WITH PERSISTENT ONSHORE
FLOW...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. SKY CONDS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PTLY CLOUDY UNTIL THEN.

LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION INCREASES ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE FURTHER OFFSHORE. THE DEVELOPMENT OF A PRE-
FRONTAL/THERMAL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A SOURCE FOR LIFT IN THE
AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CITY. CAPE VALUES IN THE
MODELS DIFFER IN THE AFTERNOON AND THIS IS DUE TO HOW MUCH HEATING
THEY FORECAST. THE NAM HAS MUCH HIGHER SBCAPE WITH ITS WARMER
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN COMBINATION WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID
60S. FEEL CAPE VALUES MAY BE A BIT TOO HIGH IN THE NAM...BUT IT
HAS THE RIGHT IDEA WITH ITS WARMER TEMPERATURES LEADING TO HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY. ANY MORNING CLOUDS WILL BREAK LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON TO ALLOW FOR ENOUGH SUNSHINE TO REALIZE THIS
HIGHER INSTABILITY.

SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND LINGER INTO
THE AFTERNOON WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND. SPC HAS THE INTERIOR OF NE
NJ AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. AN ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT
HERE...BUT FEEL STORMS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN ANY STORM WITH URBANIZED MINOR
FLOODING A POSSIBILITY. CHANCE POPS CONTINUE FOR MAINLY WEST OF
THE HUDSON RIVER.

THE QUESTION FOR WEDNESDAY EVENING IS HOW FAR EAST THE CONVECTION
GETS. THE MARINE INFLUENCE AND PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
MOST LIKELY WEAKEN THE STORMS CONSIDERABLY AS THEY MOVE NEAR THE
HUDSON RIVER. NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FORECAST IN THE
EVENING EAST OF THE HUDSON. POPS DO INCREASE TO LOW CHANCE FOR
EASTERN ZONES OVERNIGHT AS THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH REMAINS NEARBY
AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY COULD PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S
FROM NYC NORTH AND WEST AND MAINLY MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S ACROSS
SOUTHERN CT AND LONG ISLAND. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
60S.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS AT
ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL EXPAND
WESTWARD BACK INTO THE MS RIVER VALLEY AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY OVER THE
GREAT LAKES DAMPENS AND LIFTS TO THE NE THU. THIS WILL ALLOW THE
SUBTROP RIDGE TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...PUMPING IN
WARM...HUMID AIR ACROSS THE REGION.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THU BEFORE
DISSIPATING OFFSHORE ON FRI. THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THU EVE...BUT DRY AIR LOOKS TO BE A LIMITING
FACTOR. HEIGHTS BUILD ALOFT FRI INTO SAT WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE
CAPPING THE AIRMASS. ANY CONVECTION WILL BE ISOLATED...DIURNAL IN
NATURE...AND LIKELY WELL INLAND.

FORECAST DILEMMA REMAINS THE TIMING OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN. THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS STILL REMAINS THE
FASTER...AND MORE AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION. HOWEVER...DEFERRED TO THE
SLOWER ECMWF WHICH HAS MAINTAINED THE BEST RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY.
THE ECMWF DOES NOT BRING THE FRONT THROUGH UNTIL SUN AFT AND THEN
KEEPS IT IN CLOSE PROXIMITY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED RAINFALL EVENT LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY WARM THROUGH SAT...THEN COOLS
DOWN SUN INTO MON BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A CHANCE MARGINAL VFR CEILINGS AND POSSIBLY
FOG AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS.

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND
LOCALLY MARGINAL VFR CONDITIONS FROM THE NEW YORK CITY TERMINALS AND
NORTH AND WEST. THERE BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE
ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY.

WIND WILL SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY...BECOMING
GUSTY...UP TO 25 KT ALONG THE COAST...DURING THE AFTERNOON.


     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SOUTHERLY GUSTS UP TO 25 KT END AROUND
04Z...AND MAY END A LITTLE EARLIER. THERE IS A CHANCE OF MARGINAL
VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES...IN FOG...DEVELOPING AFTER 09Z AND
CONTINUING TO 12Z. LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE. LOW CHANCE OF
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: THERE IS A CHANCE OF MARGINAL VFR CEILINGS
DEVELOPING AFTER 10Z TO 12Z. LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE. LOW
CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: THERE MAY BE A FEW TO SCATTERED STRATUS AROUND
AFTER 09Z. FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT CEILINGS WILL NOT DEVELOP.
LOW CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: THERE MAY BE A FEW TO SCATTERED STRATUS AROUND
AFTER 09Z. FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT CEILINGS WILL NOT DEVELOP.
LOW CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: THERE MAY BE A FEW TO SCATTERED STRATUS AROUND
AFTER 09Z. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE THAT MARGINAL VFR CEILINGS WILL
DEVELOP 10Z TO 12Z. LOW CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: SOUTHWESTERLY GUSTS UP TO 22 KT END AROUND
04Z...AND MAY END A LITTLE EARLIER. THERE IS A CHANCE OF MARGINAL
VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES...IN FOG...DEVELOPING AFTER 09Z AND
CONTINUING TO 12Z. LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.


.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CHANCE EARLY EVENING SHRA/TSTM MAINLY FROM AROUND
THE NYC METRO TERMINALS...AND NORTH AND WEST. STRATUS AND FOG LIKELY
LATE AT NIGHT WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST.

.THURSDAY-SATURDAY...LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS IN STRATUS AND FOG LIKELY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHRA/TSTM THURSDAY AND SATURDAY. WIND GUSTS 15-
20 KT THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WITH CHANCE OF SHRA/TSTM.

.SUNDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WITH CHANCE OF SHRA/TSTM.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SCA ON THE OCEAN WATERS HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KT ARE LIKELY INTO THIS EVENING AND
THEN AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH PROLONGED
SOUTHERLY FLOW. SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD TO 5 FT TONIGHT AND REMAIN
NEAR 5 FT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE SCA ON THE NY HARBOR AND SOUTH SHORE BAYS CONTINUES THROUGH
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS MAY BE ABLE TO BE CANCELLED EARLIER IF THE
STRONGER WINDS DO NOT PAN OUT THIS EVENING. WINDS MAY ALSO APPROACH
SCA LEVELS ON THE NY HARBOR AND SOUTH SHORE BAYS AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF DENSE FOG TO FORM ON THE
WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW ON THIS AND FOR NOW HAVE CONTINUED TO FORECAST PATCHY FOG.

MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN WATERS POSSIBLE THU-SUN WITH A
MODERATE SLY FLOW. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF OFFSHORE WINDS
THU NIGHT BEHIND A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GENERALLY LESS THAN TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF BASIN AVERAGE
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER ANY STRONGER
CONVECTION THAT FORMS...ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS ANY TRAINING OF
STORMS...COULD LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AND/OR POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED RAINFALL EVENT LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ338-345.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KOKX 270028
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
828 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS ANCHORED WELL OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH
THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND DISSIPATE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. A
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL THEN IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
WEAKENING SHOWERS HAVE MOVED NORTH OF ORANGE AND PUTNAM COUNTIES
THIS EVENING...WITH NO OTHER ACTIVITY IMMINENTLY THREATENING THE
AREA. MINOR UPDATES TO THE GRIDS TO REMOVE POPS UNTIL AFT 06Z WHEN
A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDE COULD TRIGGER A SHOWER OR TSTM. MUCH OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE
KEEPS US DRY...BUT FEEL IT IS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION
THAT A SHOWER OR STORM DEVELOPS WITH THIS SHORTWAVE AND WEAK
ELEVATED INSTABILITY. HAVE CAPPED POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS. THE GFS IS THE WETTEST MODEL DURING THIS TIMEFRAME AND
IS LIKELY OVERDOING QPF.

TEMPS ARE NOT COOLING AS QUICKLY AS FORECAST...SO ADJUSTMENTS
NEEDED HERE AS WELL.

PATCHY FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE TOWARDS MORNING. THERE IS A LOW CHC
THAT FOG BECOMES LOCALLY DENSE NEAR THE COAST...BUT IT REMAINS
UNCERTAIN HOW WIDESPREAD THIS WOULD END UP BEING. THERE IS A
GREATER LIKELIHOOD FOR STRATUS TO DEVELOP WITH PERSISTENT ONSHORE
FLOW...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. SKY CONDS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PTLY CLOUDY UNTIL THEN.

LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION INCREASES ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE FURTHER OFFSHORE. THE DEVELOPMENT OF A PRE-
FRONTAL/THERMAL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A SOURCE FOR LIFT IN THE
AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CITY. CAPE VALUES IN THE
MODELS DIFFER IN THE AFTERNOON AND THIS IS DUE TO HOW MUCH HEATING
THEY FORECAST. THE NAM HAS MUCH HIGHER SBCAPE WITH ITS WARMER
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN COMBINATION WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID
60S. FEEL CAPE VALUES MAY BE A BIT TOO HIGH IN THE NAM...BUT IT
HAS THE RIGHT IDEA WITH ITS WARMER TEMPERATURES LEADING TO HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY. ANY MORNING CLOUDS WILL BREAK LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON TO ALLOW FOR ENOUGH SUNSHINE TO REALIZE THIS
HIGHER INSTABILITY.

SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND LINGER INTO
THE AFTERNOON WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND. SPC HAS THE INTERIOR OF NE
NJ AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. AN ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT
HERE...BUT FEEL STORMS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN ANY STORM WITH URBANIZED MINOR
FLOODING A POSSIBILITY. CHANCE POPS CONTINUE FOR MAINLY WEST OF
THE HUDSON RIVER.

THE QUESTION FOR WEDNESDAY EVENING IS HOW FAR EAST THE CONVECTION
GETS. THE MARINE INFLUENCE AND PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
MOST LIKELY WEAKEN THE STORMS CONSIDERABLY AS THEY MOVE NEAR THE
HUDSON RIVER. NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FORECAST IN THE
EVENING EAST OF THE HUDSON. POPS DO INCREASE TO LOW CHANCE FOR
EASTERN ZONES OVERNIGHT AS THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH REMAINS NEARBY
AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY COULD PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S
FROM NYC NORTH AND WEST AND MAINLY MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S ACROSS
SOUTHERN CT AND LONG ISLAND. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
60S.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS AT
ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL EXPAND
WESTWARD BACK INTO THE MS RIVER VALLEY AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY OVER THE
GREAT LAKES DAMPENS AND LIFTS TO THE NE THU. THIS WILL ALLOW THE
SUBTROP RIDGE TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...PUMPING IN
WARM...HUMID AIR ACROSS THE REGION.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THU BEFORE
DISSIPATING OFFSHORE ON FRI. THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THU EVE...BUT DRY AIR LOOKS TO BE A LIMITING
FACTOR. HEIGHTS BUILD ALOFT FRI INTO SAT WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE
CAPPING THE AIRMASS. ANY CONVECTION WILL BE ISOLATED...DIURNAL IN
NATURE...AND LIKELY WELL INLAND.

FORECAST DILEMMA REMAINS THE TIMING OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN. THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS STILL REMAINS THE
FASTER...AND MORE AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION. HOWEVER...DEFERRED TO THE
SLOWER ECMWF WHICH HAS MAINTAINED THE BEST RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY.
THE ECMWF DOES NOT BRING THE FRONT THROUGH UNTIL SUN AFT AND THEN
KEEPS IT IN CLOSE PROXIMITY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED RAINFALL EVENT LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY WARM THROUGH SAT...THEN COOLS
DOWN SUN INTO MON BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A CHANCE MARGINAL VFR CEILINGS AND POSSIBLY
FOG AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS.

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND
LOCALLY MARGINAL VFR CONDITIONS FROM THE NEW YORK CITY TERMINALS AND
NORTH AND WEST. THERE BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE
ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY.

WIND WILL SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY...BECOMING
GUSTY...UP TO 25 KT ALONG THE COAST...DURING THE AFTERNOON.


     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SOUTHERLY GUSTS UP TO 25 KT END AROUND
04Z...AND MAY END A LITTLE EARLIER. THERE IS A CHANCE OF MARGINAL
VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES...IN FOG...DEVELOPING AFTER 09Z AND
CONTINUING TO 12Z. LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE. LOW CHANCE OF
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: THERE IS A CHANCE OF MARGINAL VFR CEILINGS
DEVELOPING AFTER 10Z TO 12Z. LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE. LOW
CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: THERE MAY BE A FEW TO SCATTERED STRATUS AROUND
AFTER 09Z. FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT CEILINGS WILL NOT DEVELOP.
LOW CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: THERE MAY BE A FEW TO SCATTERED STRATUS AROUND
AFTER 09Z. FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT CEILINGS WILL NOT DEVELOP.
LOW CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: THERE MAY BE A FEW TO SCATTERED STRATUS AROUND
AFTER 09Z. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE THAT MARGINAL VFR CEILINGS WILL
DEVELOP 10Z TO 12Z. LOW CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: SOUTHWESTERLY GUSTS UP TO 22 KT END AROUND
04Z...AND MAY END A LITTLE EARLIER. THERE IS A CHANCE OF MARGINAL
VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES...IN FOG...DEVELOPING AFTER 09Z AND
CONTINUING TO 12Z. LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.


.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CHANCE EARLY EVENING SHRA/TSTM MAINLY FROM AROUND
THE NYC METRO TERMINALS...AND NORTH AND WEST. STRATUS AND FOG LIKELY
LATE AT NIGHT WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST.

.THURSDAY-SATURDAY...LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS IN STRATUS AND FOG LIKELY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHRA/TSTM THURSDAY AND SATURDAY. WIND GUSTS 15-
20 KT THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WITH CHANCE OF SHRA/TSTM.

.SUNDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WITH CHANCE OF SHRA/TSTM.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SCA ON THE OCEAN WATERS HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KT ARE LIKELY INTO THIS EVENING AND
THEN AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH PROLONGED
SOUTHERLY FLOW. SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD TO 5 FT TONIGHT AND REMAIN
NEAR 5 FT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE SCA ON THE NY HARBOR AND SOUTH SHORE BAYS CONTINUES THROUGH
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS MAY BE ABLE TO BE CANCELLED EARLIER IF THE
STRONGER WINDS DO NOT PAN OUT THIS EVENING. WINDS MAY ALSO APPROACH
SCA LEVELS ON THE NY HARBOR AND SOUTH SHORE BAYS AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF DENSE FOG TO FORM ON THE
WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW ON THIS AND FOR NOW HAVE CONTINUED TO FORECAST PATCHY FOG.

MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN WATERS POSSIBLE THU-SUN WITH A
MODERATE SLY FLOW. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF OFFSHORE WINDS
THU NIGHT BEHIND A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GENERALLY LESS THAN TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF BASIN AVERAGE
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER ANY STRONGER
CONVECTION THAT FORMS...ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS ANY TRAINING OF
STORMS...COULD LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AND/OR POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED RAINFALL EVENT LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ338-345.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KOKX 270028
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
828 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS ANCHORED WELL OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH
THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND DISSIPATE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. A
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL THEN IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
WEAKENING SHOWERS HAVE MOVED NORTH OF ORANGE AND PUTNAM COUNTIES
THIS EVENING...WITH NO OTHER ACTIVITY IMMINENTLY THREATENING THE
AREA. MINOR UPDATES TO THE GRIDS TO REMOVE POPS UNTIL AFT 06Z WHEN
A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDE COULD TRIGGER A SHOWER OR TSTM. MUCH OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE
KEEPS US DRY...BUT FEEL IT IS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION
THAT A SHOWER OR STORM DEVELOPS WITH THIS SHORTWAVE AND WEAK
ELEVATED INSTABILITY. HAVE CAPPED POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS. THE GFS IS THE WETTEST MODEL DURING THIS TIMEFRAME AND
IS LIKELY OVERDOING QPF.

TEMPS ARE NOT COOLING AS QUICKLY AS FORECAST...SO ADJUSTMENTS
NEEDED HERE AS WELL.

PATCHY FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE TOWARDS MORNING. THERE IS A LOW CHC
THAT FOG BECOMES LOCALLY DENSE NEAR THE COAST...BUT IT REMAINS
UNCERTAIN HOW WIDESPREAD THIS WOULD END UP BEING. THERE IS A
GREATER LIKELIHOOD FOR STRATUS TO DEVELOP WITH PERSISTENT ONSHORE
FLOW...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. SKY CONDS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PTLY CLOUDY UNTIL THEN.

LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION INCREASES ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE FURTHER OFFSHORE. THE DEVELOPMENT OF A PRE-
FRONTAL/THERMAL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A SOURCE FOR LIFT IN THE
AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CITY. CAPE VALUES IN THE
MODELS DIFFER IN THE AFTERNOON AND THIS IS DUE TO HOW MUCH HEATING
THEY FORECAST. THE NAM HAS MUCH HIGHER SBCAPE WITH ITS WARMER
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN COMBINATION WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID
60S. FEEL CAPE VALUES MAY BE A BIT TOO HIGH IN THE NAM...BUT IT
HAS THE RIGHT IDEA WITH ITS WARMER TEMPERATURES LEADING TO HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY. ANY MORNING CLOUDS WILL BREAK LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON TO ALLOW FOR ENOUGH SUNSHINE TO REALIZE THIS
HIGHER INSTABILITY.

SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND LINGER INTO
THE AFTERNOON WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND. SPC HAS THE INTERIOR OF NE
NJ AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. AN ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT
HERE...BUT FEEL STORMS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN ANY STORM WITH URBANIZED MINOR
FLOODING A POSSIBILITY. CHANCE POPS CONTINUE FOR MAINLY WEST OF
THE HUDSON RIVER.

THE QUESTION FOR WEDNESDAY EVENING IS HOW FAR EAST THE CONVECTION
GETS. THE MARINE INFLUENCE AND PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
MOST LIKELY WEAKEN THE STORMS CONSIDERABLY AS THEY MOVE NEAR THE
HUDSON RIVER. NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FORECAST IN THE
EVENING EAST OF THE HUDSON. POPS DO INCREASE TO LOW CHANCE FOR
EASTERN ZONES OVERNIGHT AS THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH REMAINS NEARBY
AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY COULD PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S
FROM NYC NORTH AND WEST AND MAINLY MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S ACROSS
SOUTHERN CT AND LONG ISLAND. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
60S.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS AT
ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL EXPAND
WESTWARD BACK INTO THE MS RIVER VALLEY AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY OVER THE
GREAT LAKES DAMPENS AND LIFTS TO THE NE THU. THIS WILL ALLOW THE
SUBTROP RIDGE TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...PUMPING IN
WARM...HUMID AIR ACROSS THE REGION.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THU BEFORE
DISSIPATING OFFSHORE ON FRI. THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THU EVE...BUT DRY AIR LOOKS TO BE A LIMITING
FACTOR. HEIGHTS BUILD ALOFT FRI INTO SAT WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE
CAPPING THE AIRMASS. ANY CONVECTION WILL BE ISOLATED...DIURNAL IN
NATURE...AND LIKELY WELL INLAND.

FORECAST DILEMMA REMAINS THE TIMING OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN. THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS STILL REMAINS THE
FASTER...AND MORE AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION. HOWEVER...DEFERRED TO THE
SLOWER ECMWF WHICH HAS MAINTAINED THE BEST RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY.
THE ECMWF DOES NOT BRING THE FRONT THROUGH UNTIL SUN AFT AND THEN
KEEPS IT IN CLOSE PROXIMITY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED RAINFALL EVENT LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY WARM THROUGH SAT...THEN COOLS
DOWN SUN INTO MON BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A CHANCE MARGINAL VFR CEILINGS AND POSSIBLY
FOG AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS.

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND
LOCALLY MARGINAL VFR CONDITIONS FROM THE NEW YORK CITY TERMINALS AND
NORTH AND WEST. THERE BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE
ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY.

WIND WILL SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY...BECOMING
GUSTY...UP TO 25 KT ALONG THE COAST...DURING THE AFTERNOON.


     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SOUTHERLY GUSTS UP TO 25 KT END AROUND
04Z...AND MAY END A LITTLE EARLIER. THERE IS A CHANCE OF MARGINAL
VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES...IN FOG...DEVELOPING AFTER 09Z AND
CONTINUING TO 12Z. LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE. LOW CHANCE OF
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: THERE IS A CHANCE OF MARGINAL VFR CEILINGS
DEVELOPING AFTER 10Z TO 12Z. LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE. LOW
CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: THERE MAY BE A FEW TO SCATTERED STRATUS AROUND
AFTER 09Z. FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT CEILINGS WILL NOT DEVELOP.
LOW CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: THERE MAY BE A FEW TO SCATTERED STRATUS AROUND
AFTER 09Z. FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT CEILINGS WILL NOT DEVELOP.
LOW CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: THERE MAY BE A FEW TO SCATTERED STRATUS AROUND
AFTER 09Z. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE THAT MARGINAL VFR CEILINGS WILL
DEVELOP 10Z TO 12Z. LOW CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: SOUTHWESTERLY GUSTS UP TO 22 KT END AROUND
04Z...AND MAY END A LITTLE EARLIER. THERE IS A CHANCE OF MARGINAL
VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES...IN FOG...DEVELOPING AFTER 09Z AND
CONTINUING TO 12Z. LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.


.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CHANCE EARLY EVENING SHRA/TSTM MAINLY FROM AROUND
THE NYC METRO TERMINALS...AND NORTH AND WEST. STRATUS AND FOG LIKELY
LATE AT NIGHT WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST.

.THURSDAY-SATURDAY...LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS IN STRATUS AND FOG LIKELY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHRA/TSTM THURSDAY AND SATURDAY. WIND GUSTS 15-
20 KT THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WITH CHANCE OF SHRA/TSTM.

.SUNDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WITH CHANCE OF SHRA/TSTM.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SCA ON THE OCEAN WATERS HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KT ARE LIKELY INTO THIS EVENING AND
THEN AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH PROLONGED
SOUTHERLY FLOW. SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD TO 5 FT TONIGHT AND REMAIN
NEAR 5 FT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE SCA ON THE NY HARBOR AND SOUTH SHORE BAYS CONTINUES THROUGH
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS MAY BE ABLE TO BE CANCELLED EARLIER IF THE
STRONGER WINDS DO NOT PAN OUT THIS EVENING. WINDS MAY ALSO APPROACH
SCA LEVELS ON THE NY HARBOR AND SOUTH SHORE BAYS AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF DENSE FOG TO FORM ON THE
WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW ON THIS AND FOR NOW HAVE CONTINUED TO FORECAST PATCHY FOG.

MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN WATERS POSSIBLE THU-SUN WITH A
MODERATE SLY FLOW. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF OFFSHORE WINDS
THU NIGHT BEHIND A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GENERALLY LESS THAN TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF BASIN AVERAGE
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER ANY STRONGER
CONVECTION THAT FORMS...ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS ANY TRAINING OF
STORMS...COULD LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AND/OR POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED RAINFALL EVENT LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ338-345.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KOKX 270028
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
828 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS ANCHORED WELL OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH
THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND DISSIPATE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. A
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL THEN IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
WEAKENING SHOWERS HAVE MOVED NORTH OF ORANGE AND PUTNAM COUNTIES
THIS EVENING...WITH NO OTHER ACTIVITY IMMINENTLY THREATENING THE
AREA. MINOR UPDATES TO THE GRIDS TO REMOVE POPS UNTIL AFT 06Z WHEN
A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDE COULD TRIGGER A SHOWER OR TSTM. MUCH OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE
KEEPS US DRY...BUT FEEL IT IS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION
THAT A SHOWER OR STORM DEVELOPS WITH THIS SHORTWAVE AND WEAK
ELEVATED INSTABILITY. HAVE CAPPED POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS. THE GFS IS THE WETTEST MODEL DURING THIS TIMEFRAME AND
IS LIKELY OVERDOING QPF.

TEMPS ARE NOT COOLING AS QUICKLY AS FORECAST...SO ADJUSTMENTS
NEEDED HERE AS WELL.

PATCHY FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE TOWARDS MORNING. THERE IS A LOW CHC
THAT FOG BECOMES LOCALLY DENSE NEAR THE COAST...BUT IT REMAINS
UNCERTAIN HOW WIDESPREAD THIS WOULD END UP BEING. THERE IS A
GREATER LIKELIHOOD FOR STRATUS TO DEVELOP WITH PERSISTENT ONSHORE
FLOW...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. SKY CONDS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PTLY CLOUDY UNTIL THEN.

LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION INCREASES ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE FURTHER OFFSHORE. THE DEVELOPMENT OF A PRE-
FRONTAL/THERMAL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A SOURCE FOR LIFT IN THE
AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CITY. CAPE VALUES IN THE
MODELS DIFFER IN THE AFTERNOON AND THIS IS DUE TO HOW MUCH HEATING
THEY FORECAST. THE NAM HAS MUCH HIGHER SBCAPE WITH ITS WARMER
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN COMBINATION WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID
60S. FEEL CAPE VALUES MAY BE A BIT TOO HIGH IN THE NAM...BUT IT
HAS THE RIGHT IDEA WITH ITS WARMER TEMPERATURES LEADING TO HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY. ANY MORNING CLOUDS WILL BREAK LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON TO ALLOW FOR ENOUGH SUNSHINE TO REALIZE THIS
HIGHER INSTABILITY.

SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND LINGER INTO
THE AFTERNOON WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND. SPC HAS THE INTERIOR OF NE
NJ AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. AN ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT
HERE...BUT FEEL STORMS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN ANY STORM WITH URBANIZED MINOR
FLOODING A POSSIBILITY. CHANCE POPS CONTINUE FOR MAINLY WEST OF
THE HUDSON RIVER.

THE QUESTION FOR WEDNESDAY EVENING IS HOW FAR EAST THE CONVECTION
GETS. THE MARINE INFLUENCE AND PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
MOST LIKELY WEAKEN THE STORMS CONSIDERABLY AS THEY MOVE NEAR THE
HUDSON RIVER. NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FORECAST IN THE
EVENING EAST OF THE HUDSON. POPS DO INCREASE TO LOW CHANCE FOR
EASTERN ZONES OVERNIGHT AS THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH REMAINS NEARBY
AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY COULD PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S
FROM NYC NORTH AND WEST AND MAINLY MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S ACROSS
SOUTHERN CT AND LONG ISLAND. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
60S.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS AT
ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL EXPAND
WESTWARD BACK INTO THE MS RIVER VALLEY AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY OVER THE
GREAT LAKES DAMPENS AND LIFTS TO THE NE THU. THIS WILL ALLOW THE
SUBTROP RIDGE TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...PUMPING IN
WARM...HUMID AIR ACROSS THE REGION.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THU BEFORE
DISSIPATING OFFSHORE ON FRI. THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THU EVE...BUT DRY AIR LOOKS TO BE A LIMITING
FACTOR. HEIGHTS BUILD ALOFT FRI INTO SAT WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE
CAPPING THE AIRMASS. ANY CONVECTION WILL BE ISOLATED...DIURNAL IN
NATURE...AND LIKELY WELL INLAND.

FORECAST DILEMMA REMAINS THE TIMING OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN. THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS STILL REMAINS THE
FASTER...AND MORE AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION. HOWEVER...DEFERRED TO THE
SLOWER ECMWF WHICH HAS MAINTAINED THE BEST RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY.
THE ECMWF DOES NOT BRING THE FRONT THROUGH UNTIL SUN AFT AND THEN
KEEPS IT IN CLOSE PROXIMITY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED RAINFALL EVENT LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY WARM THROUGH SAT...THEN COOLS
DOWN SUN INTO MON BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A CHANCE MARGINAL VFR CEILINGS AND POSSIBLY
FOG AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS.

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND
LOCALLY MARGINAL VFR CONDITIONS FROM THE NEW YORK CITY TERMINALS AND
NORTH AND WEST. THERE BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE
ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY.

WIND WILL SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY...BECOMING
GUSTY...UP TO 25 KT ALONG THE COAST...DURING THE AFTERNOON.


     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SOUTHERLY GUSTS UP TO 25 KT END AROUND
04Z...AND MAY END A LITTLE EARLIER. THERE IS A CHANCE OF MARGINAL
VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES...IN FOG...DEVELOPING AFTER 09Z AND
CONTINUING TO 12Z. LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE. LOW CHANCE OF
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: THERE IS A CHANCE OF MARGINAL VFR CEILINGS
DEVELOPING AFTER 10Z TO 12Z. LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE. LOW
CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: THERE MAY BE A FEW TO SCATTERED STRATUS AROUND
AFTER 09Z. FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT CEILINGS WILL NOT DEVELOP.
LOW CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: THERE MAY BE A FEW TO SCATTERED STRATUS AROUND
AFTER 09Z. FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT CEILINGS WILL NOT DEVELOP.
LOW CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: THERE MAY BE A FEW TO SCATTERED STRATUS AROUND
AFTER 09Z. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE THAT MARGINAL VFR CEILINGS WILL
DEVELOP 10Z TO 12Z. LOW CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: SOUTHWESTERLY GUSTS UP TO 22 KT END AROUND
04Z...AND MAY END A LITTLE EARLIER. THERE IS A CHANCE OF MARGINAL
VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES...IN FOG...DEVELOPING AFTER 09Z AND
CONTINUING TO 12Z. LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.


.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CHANCE EARLY EVENING SHRA/TSTM MAINLY FROM AROUND
THE NYC METRO TERMINALS...AND NORTH AND WEST. STRATUS AND FOG LIKELY
LATE AT NIGHT WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST.

.THURSDAY-SATURDAY...LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS IN STRATUS AND FOG LIKELY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHRA/TSTM THURSDAY AND SATURDAY. WIND GUSTS 15-
20 KT THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WITH CHANCE OF SHRA/TSTM.

.SUNDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WITH CHANCE OF SHRA/TSTM.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SCA ON THE OCEAN WATERS HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KT ARE LIKELY INTO THIS EVENING AND
THEN AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH PROLONGED
SOUTHERLY FLOW. SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD TO 5 FT TONIGHT AND REMAIN
NEAR 5 FT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE SCA ON THE NY HARBOR AND SOUTH SHORE BAYS CONTINUES THROUGH
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS MAY BE ABLE TO BE CANCELLED EARLIER IF THE
STRONGER WINDS DO NOT PAN OUT THIS EVENING. WINDS MAY ALSO APPROACH
SCA LEVELS ON THE NY HARBOR AND SOUTH SHORE BAYS AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF DENSE FOG TO FORM ON THE
WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW ON THIS AND FOR NOW HAVE CONTINUED TO FORECAST PATCHY FOG.

MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN WATERS POSSIBLE THU-SUN WITH A
MODERATE SLY FLOW. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF OFFSHORE WINDS
THU NIGHT BEHIND A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GENERALLY LESS THAN TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF BASIN AVERAGE
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER ANY STRONGER
CONVECTION THAT FORMS...ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS ANY TRAINING OF
STORMS...COULD LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AND/OR POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED RAINFALL EVENT LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ338-345.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KBOX 262351
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
751 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE THROUGH TOMORROW.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY...
WITH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY HAVING THE HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

740 PM UPDATE...
AS TEMPS REACHED THE MID-UPPER 80S ACROSS W MA/N CENTRAL CT THIS
AFTERNOON...SOME CONVECTION HELD ON AS IT MOVED E OUT OF THE
CENTRAL HUDSON VALLEY INTO W CENTRAL MA OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS.
ONE CELL ACROSS CENTRAL BERKSHIRE COUNTY PRODUCED SOME C/G
LIGHTNING AND HAD A PRETTY GOOD CORE THAT MAY HAVE DROPPED A
LITTLE BIT OF SMALL HAIL. STILL NOTING SOME BRIEF C/G LIGHTNING IN
EASTERN FRANKLIN COUNTY WITH A CELL THERE AT AROUND 2330Z. THESE
CELLS SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WITH SUNSET AND DISSIPATE BY
02Z-03Z.

BEYOND THIS...EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO REDEVELOP ALONG THE S COAST
AND PUSH INLAND ON THE S-SW WINDS OVERNIGHT.




TONIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL START TO
BREAK DOWN WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS COULD LEAD TO A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.  MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE WAS DRY BUT THE
GFS HAS BEEN INDICATING NOT JUST SPRINKLES BUT A GOOD TWO TENTHS OF
AN INCH OF PRECIP.  FEEL THIS MAY BE SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK FROM
THE CONVECTION OVER NEW YORK AND PA THIS EVENING.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT SOME CLOUDINESS AND THAT WITH THE MOIST
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO MUCH.
EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 60S.  THAT WARM...MOIST AIR
FLOWING OVER THE COLDER OCEAN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AREAS OF DENSE
FOG OVER THE OCEAN AND BLEEDING ONTO THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND
ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY DAY FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH
TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 80S IN THE CONNECTICUT AND
MERRIMACK VALLEYS WITH MID 80S ELSEWHERE.  EXCEPTION TO THIS IS
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS WHERE BOTH ONSHORE WINDS
AND PERHAPS LINGERING MARINE STRATUS AND FOG WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM CLIMBING.  EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S IN THESE
LOCATIONS.

THIS LOOKS LIKE THE BETTER DAY FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  HOWEVER...THIS DOESN/T APPEAR TO OCCUR
UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  INSTABILITY IS A BIT BETTER THAN
IT WAS TODAY BUT IS STILL SOMEWHAT LACKING AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
LEAVE PLENTY TO BE DESIRED.  THE MAIN FOCUS FOR STORMS WILL BE OVER
NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA WHERE THE BETTER INSTABILITY AND FOCUSING
WILL BE.  THESE STORMS...MUCH LIKE TODAY...WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN PART OF THE CWA TOWARDS THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
WHILE THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE...THE
MOST LIKELY THREATS WITH THESE STORMS ARE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY
WINDS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST
INTO THE EVENING AS WIND SHEAR INCREASES WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
MOVING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  ANOTHER WARM NIGHT IN STORE WITH
LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

TO START OFF...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES KEEP OVERALL UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER 48...WITH RIDGING ALONG OR
JUST E OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND TROUGHING ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO
THE SOUTHWEST. MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL SLOW DEAMPLIFICATION
OF THE UPPER PATTERN GOING INTO THIS WEEKEND...WITH RIDGE AXIS
FLATTENING OUT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AS A SURFACE FRONT THAT TRIES TO
WORK ACROSS THE REGION WASHES OUT DURING FRIDAY. BERMUDA HIGH RE-
ESTABLISHES FOR EARLY THIS WEEKEND WHILE ANOTHER FRONT WORKS SE OUT
OF QUEBEC. THIS FRONT LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH TO WORK SLOWLY SE AS THE
WESTERN ATLC RIDGE SHIFTS S AND UPPER TROUGHING TAKES OVER ACROSS
THE NORTHERN STREAM. BIG QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER THE FRONT WILL
CLEAR OFF THE S COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK OR WILL IT STALL CLOSER TO OR
OVER SOUTHERN AREAS.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...
THOUGH DID LEAN TOWARD MORE TOWARD THE ENSEMBLES FROM THIS WEEKEND
ONWARD DUE TO TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT. FOR THE
LATTER TIMEFRAME...LEANED CLOSER TO THE SLOWER ECMWF AND ECENS
MEANS.

DETAILS...

THURSDAY...WILL SEE LEFTOVER SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS WESTERN AREAS
THU MORNING WITH PWATS ON ORDER OF AROUND 1.5 INCHES. THE FRONT
SHIFTS S TAKING THE HIGHER PWAT AIR WITH IT...SO EXPECT THE PRECIP
TO TEND TO WEAKEN THOUGH WILL LINGER WHERE MILDER TEMPS ARE THANKS
TO DIURNAL INFLUENCES. INSTABILITY ALSO SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND WEAKENS
SO EXPECT ANY THUNDERSTORMS TO TAPER OFF BY AROUND MIDDAY. BEST SHOT
FOR PRECIP WILL BE FROM THE MERRIMACK VALLEY SE ACROSS CENTRAL MA TO
THE MID AND LOWER CT VALLEY. CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW QUICK DOWNPOURS
THROUGH MIDDAY WITH THE HIGHER PWAT AIRMASS. WILL SEE AREAS OF
FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...DEVELOP ACROSS S COASTAL AREAS THU NIGHT INTO
FRI MORNING.

FRIDAY...MODELS STARTED TO SIGNAL DRIER AIR WORKING IN ON MONDAY...
BUT MOST OF THE MODEL SUITE HAS HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDING S OUT OF
QUEBEC SO EXPECT A DRY BUT MILD DAY. DEWPTS DROP A BIT...DOWN TO THE
50S...BUT WILL BEGIN TO RISE AGAIN FRI NIGHT. WILL SEE A LIGHT E-SE
WIND FLOW SO WILL BE COOLER ALONG THE COAST...HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
70S EXCEPT 65-70 ACROSS COASTAL AREAS...RANGING TO THE LOWER TO MID
80S ACROSS THE CT VALLEY.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REPOSITIONS OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD SO SW
WINDS KICK IN AGAIN BRINGING A RETURN TO MORE HUMID AIR. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT START TO APPROACH OUT OF GREAT LAKES AND WESTERN QUEBEC.
ALSO NOTING INCREASING INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...
WITH K INDICES RISING TO THE LOWER-MID 30S AND TQ VALUES IN THE
UPPER TEENS SO COULD SEE SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION WHICH COULD LAST
INTO SAT NIGHT. BEST LIFT MOVES CLOSER DURING LATE SAT/SAT NIGHT SO
WILL SEE SCT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. A PWAT SWATH OF 1.6 TO
1.75 INCHES PUSHES OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SO MAY SEE SOME HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS WITH ANY CONVECTION.  WILL SEE QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE
EARLY SATURDAY...SO TEMPS WILL REBOUND TO THE 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS
EXCEPT THE LOWER-MID 70S ALONG S COASTAL AREAS.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING...THEN
REACHES THE S COAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECT CHANCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. STILL SOME TIMING ISSUES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF
BUT A BIT BETTER FOR THIS TIMEFRAME. WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE
FRONT...EXPECT SCT PRECIP TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUN NIGHT.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...SOMEWHAT LOWER CONFIDENCE DUE TO TIMING AND
PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES WITH THE FRONT AND WHETHER IT STALLS NEAR THE
S COAST OR OFFSHORE. AT THIS POINT...KEPT CHANCE POPS ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH MIDDAY THEN SHOULD PUSH JUST OFFSHORE BUT
MAY LINGER ACROSS THE ISLANDS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY SUNDAY. MAY
SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS EARLY...THEN INSTABILITY WORKS OFFSHORE BUT
COULD STILL SEE SOME SHOWERS WHILE HIGH PRES MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND.

HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING FOR SOUTHERN AREAS INTO TUESDAY
AS FRONT LOOKS TO LINGER...THEN MAY TRY TO MAKE A RUN BACK NE AS THE
HIGH PUSHES OFF INTO THE GULF OF MAINE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ANY LEFTOVER SHOWERS ACROSS NW MA
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 03Z...BUT MAY PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR TO START...THEN DETERIORATING TO MVFR-IFR
IN AREAS OF FOG ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS. COULD
SEE PASSING SHOWER OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR ALONG THE SOUTH COAST DURING
THE MORNING SHOULD PUSH OFFSHORE. ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE INTERIOR... DROPPING TO MVFR WITHIN ANY -SHRA/-TSRA THAT
DEVELOPS. EXPECT SW WINDS TO GUST UP TO 20-25 KT AT TIMES MAINLY
ACROSS RI/SE MA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO
IFR ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS AS MARITIME FOG AND
STRATUS ROLLS BACK IN.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. COULD SEE CONDITIONS DROP
TO MVFR WITHIN A POP-UP THUNDERSTORM TODAY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR. WILL SEE SCT -SHRA/TSRA WITH LOCAL MVFR-IFR
CONDITIONS. EXPECT AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP DURING THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING PERIOD WITH IFR-LIFR VSBYS.

FRIDAY...VFR. MAY SEE LOCAL MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS EARLY FRI MORNING
ALONG S COAST IN PATCHY FOG...THEN WILL LOWER AGAIN LATE FRI
NIGHT/SAT MORNING TO MVFR-IFR.

SATURDAY...PATCHY FOG EARLY SAT MORNING WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE. SCT SHRA/TSRA SAT THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH LOCAL MVFR-
IFR CONDITIONS. SW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KT MAINLY ALONG THE COAST
SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING.

SUNDAY...SCT SHOWERS TSTMS LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD END
SUN NIGHT. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE UP THROUGH TONIGHT...MAINLY ON THE
OUTER WATERS FOR SEAS AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. SEAS WILL CLIMB TO
5 FEET AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE PERIOD. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
WILL EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT FOR THE INNER WATERS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL DIMINISH...BUT MAY LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET.

IN ADDITION...AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ON THE
WATERS TONIGHT...SUBSTANTIALLY REDUCING VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY...EXPECT SW WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KT. SEAS BUILD TO
AROUND 5 FT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS TO THE OUTER WATERS E OF CAPE
COD...BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT THU NIGHT. VSBYS REDUCED IN
AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DENSE OFFSHORE BOTH THU AND FRI NIGHTS.

FRIDAY...LIGHT N-NE WINDS BECOME E DURING THE DAY...THEN SHIFT TO
S-SW FRI NIGHT. EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SW WINDS MAY BRIEFLY GUST TO 25 KT DURING SAT ON
THE EASTERN WATERS...OTHERWISE EXPECT GUSTS UP TO 20 KT SEAS BUILD
AGAIN TO AROUND 5 FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS...WHICH WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE LATE SUN OR SUN NIGHT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/EVT
NEAR TERM...RLG/EVT
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...RLG/EVT
MARINE...RLG/EVT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 262351
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
751 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE THROUGH TOMORROW.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY...
WITH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY HAVING THE HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

740 PM UPDATE...
AS TEMPS REACHED THE MID-UPPER 80S ACROSS W MA/N CENTRAL CT THIS
AFTERNOON...SOME CONVECTION HELD ON AS IT MOVED E OUT OF THE
CENTRAL HUDSON VALLEY INTO W CENTRAL MA OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS.
ONE CELL ACROSS CENTRAL BERKSHIRE COUNTY PRODUCED SOME C/G
LIGHTNING AND HAD A PRETTY GOOD CORE THAT MAY HAVE DROPPED A
LITTLE BIT OF SMALL HAIL. STILL NOTING SOME BRIEF C/G LIGHTNING IN
EASTERN FRANKLIN COUNTY WITH A CELL THERE AT AROUND 2330Z. THESE
CELLS SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WITH SUNSET AND DISSIPATE BY
02Z-03Z.

BEYOND THIS...EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO REDEVELOP ALONG THE S COAST
AND PUSH INLAND ON THE S-SW WINDS OVERNIGHT.




TONIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL START TO
BREAK DOWN WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS COULD LEAD TO A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.  MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE WAS DRY BUT THE
GFS HAS BEEN INDICATING NOT JUST SPRINKLES BUT A GOOD TWO TENTHS OF
AN INCH OF PRECIP.  FEEL THIS MAY BE SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK FROM
THE CONVECTION OVER NEW YORK AND PA THIS EVENING.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT SOME CLOUDINESS AND THAT WITH THE MOIST
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO MUCH.
EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 60S.  THAT WARM...MOIST AIR
FLOWING OVER THE COLDER OCEAN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AREAS OF DENSE
FOG OVER THE OCEAN AND BLEEDING ONTO THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND
ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY DAY FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH
TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 80S IN THE CONNECTICUT AND
MERRIMACK VALLEYS WITH MID 80S ELSEWHERE.  EXCEPTION TO THIS IS
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS WHERE BOTH ONSHORE WINDS
AND PERHAPS LINGERING MARINE STRATUS AND FOG WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM CLIMBING.  EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S IN THESE
LOCATIONS.

THIS LOOKS LIKE THE BETTER DAY FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  HOWEVER...THIS DOESN/T APPEAR TO OCCUR
UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  INSTABILITY IS A BIT BETTER THAN
IT WAS TODAY BUT IS STILL SOMEWHAT LACKING AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
LEAVE PLENTY TO BE DESIRED.  THE MAIN FOCUS FOR STORMS WILL BE OVER
NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA WHERE THE BETTER INSTABILITY AND FOCUSING
WILL BE.  THESE STORMS...MUCH LIKE TODAY...WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN PART OF THE CWA TOWARDS THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
WHILE THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE...THE
MOST LIKELY THREATS WITH THESE STORMS ARE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY
WINDS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST
INTO THE EVENING AS WIND SHEAR INCREASES WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
MOVING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  ANOTHER WARM NIGHT IN STORE WITH
LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

TO START OFF...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES KEEP OVERALL UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER 48...WITH RIDGING ALONG OR
JUST E OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND TROUGHING ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO
THE SOUTHWEST. MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL SLOW DEAMPLIFICATION
OF THE UPPER PATTERN GOING INTO THIS WEEKEND...WITH RIDGE AXIS
FLATTENING OUT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AS A SURFACE FRONT THAT TRIES TO
WORK ACROSS THE REGION WASHES OUT DURING FRIDAY. BERMUDA HIGH RE-
ESTABLISHES FOR EARLY THIS WEEKEND WHILE ANOTHER FRONT WORKS SE OUT
OF QUEBEC. THIS FRONT LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH TO WORK SLOWLY SE AS THE
WESTERN ATLC RIDGE SHIFTS S AND UPPER TROUGHING TAKES OVER ACROSS
THE NORTHERN STREAM. BIG QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER THE FRONT WILL
CLEAR OFF THE S COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK OR WILL IT STALL CLOSER TO OR
OVER SOUTHERN AREAS.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...
THOUGH DID LEAN TOWARD MORE TOWARD THE ENSEMBLES FROM THIS WEEKEND
ONWARD DUE TO TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT. FOR THE
LATTER TIMEFRAME...LEANED CLOSER TO THE SLOWER ECMWF AND ECENS
MEANS.

DETAILS...

THURSDAY...WILL SEE LEFTOVER SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS WESTERN AREAS
THU MORNING WITH PWATS ON ORDER OF AROUND 1.5 INCHES. THE FRONT
SHIFTS S TAKING THE HIGHER PWAT AIR WITH IT...SO EXPECT THE PRECIP
TO TEND TO WEAKEN THOUGH WILL LINGER WHERE MILDER TEMPS ARE THANKS
TO DIURNAL INFLUENCES. INSTABILITY ALSO SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND WEAKENS
SO EXPECT ANY THUNDERSTORMS TO TAPER OFF BY AROUND MIDDAY. BEST SHOT
FOR PRECIP WILL BE FROM THE MERRIMACK VALLEY SE ACROSS CENTRAL MA TO
THE MID AND LOWER CT VALLEY. CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW QUICK DOWNPOURS
THROUGH MIDDAY WITH THE HIGHER PWAT AIRMASS. WILL SEE AREAS OF
FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...DEVELOP ACROSS S COASTAL AREAS THU NIGHT INTO
FRI MORNING.

FRIDAY...MODELS STARTED TO SIGNAL DRIER AIR WORKING IN ON MONDAY...
BUT MOST OF THE MODEL SUITE HAS HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDING S OUT OF
QUEBEC SO EXPECT A DRY BUT MILD DAY. DEWPTS DROP A BIT...DOWN TO THE
50S...BUT WILL BEGIN TO RISE AGAIN FRI NIGHT. WILL SEE A LIGHT E-SE
WIND FLOW SO WILL BE COOLER ALONG THE COAST...HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
70S EXCEPT 65-70 ACROSS COASTAL AREAS...RANGING TO THE LOWER TO MID
80S ACROSS THE CT VALLEY.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REPOSITIONS OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD SO SW
WINDS KICK IN AGAIN BRINGING A RETURN TO MORE HUMID AIR. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT START TO APPROACH OUT OF GREAT LAKES AND WESTERN QUEBEC.
ALSO NOTING INCREASING INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...
WITH K INDICES RISING TO THE LOWER-MID 30S AND TQ VALUES IN THE
UPPER TEENS SO COULD SEE SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION WHICH COULD LAST
INTO SAT NIGHT. BEST LIFT MOVES CLOSER DURING LATE SAT/SAT NIGHT SO
WILL SEE SCT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. A PWAT SWATH OF 1.6 TO
1.75 INCHES PUSHES OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SO MAY SEE SOME HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS WITH ANY CONVECTION.  WILL SEE QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE
EARLY SATURDAY...SO TEMPS WILL REBOUND TO THE 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS
EXCEPT THE LOWER-MID 70S ALONG S COASTAL AREAS.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING...THEN
REACHES THE S COAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECT CHANCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. STILL SOME TIMING ISSUES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF
BUT A BIT BETTER FOR THIS TIMEFRAME. WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE
FRONT...EXPECT SCT PRECIP TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUN NIGHT.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...SOMEWHAT LOWER CONFIDENCE DUE TO TIMING AND
PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES WITH THE FRONT AND WHETHER IT STALLS NEAR THE
S COAST OR OFFSHORE. AT THIS POINT...KEPT CHANCE POPS ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH MIDDAY THEN SHOULD PUSH JUST OFFSHORE BUT
MAY LINGER ACROSS THE ISLANDS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY SUNDAY. MAY
SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS EARLY...THEN INSTABILITY WORKS OFFSHORE BUT
COULD STILL SEE SOME SHOWERS WHILE HIGH PRES MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND.

HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING FOR SOUTHERN AREAS INTO TUESDAY
AS FRONT LOOKS TO LINGER...THEN MAY TRY TO MAKE A RUN BACK NE AS THE
HIGH PUSHES OFF INTO THE GULF OF MAINE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ANY LEFTOVER SHOWERS ACROSS NW MA
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 03Z...BUT MAY PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR TO START...THEN DETERIORATING TO MVFR-IFR
IN AREAS OF FOG ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS. COULD
SEE PASSING SHOWER OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR ALONG THE SOUTH COAST DURING
THE MORNING SHOULD PUSH OFFSHORE. ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE INTERIOR... DROPPING TO MVFR WITHIN ANY -SHRA/-TSRA THAT
DEVELOPS. EXPECT SW WINDS TO GUST UP TO 20-25 KT AT TIMES MAINLY
ACROSS RI/SE MA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO
IFR ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS AS MARITIME FOG AND
STRATUS ROLLS BACK IN.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. COULD SEE CONDITIONS DROP
TO MVFR WITHIN A POP-UP THUNDERSTORM TODAY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR. WILL SEE SCT -SHRA/TSRA WITH LOCAL MVFR-IFR
CONDITIONS. EXPECT AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP DURING THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING PERIOD WITH IFR-LIFR VSBYS.

FRIDAY...VFR. MAY SEE LOCAL MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS EARLY FRI MORNING
ALONG S COAST IN PATCHY FOG...THEN WILL LOWER AGAIN LATE FRI
NIGHT/SAT MORNING TO MVFR-IFR.

SATURDAY...PATCHY FOG EARLY SAT MORNING WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE. SCT SHRA/TSRA SAT THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH LOCAL MVFR-
IFR CONDITIONS. SW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KT MAINLY ALONG THE COAST
SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING.

SUNDAY...SCT SHOWERS TSTMS LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD END
SUN NIGHT. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE UP THROUGH TONIGHT...MAINLY ON THE
OUTER WATERS FOR SEAS AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. SEAS WILL CLIMB TO
5 FEET AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE PERIOD. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
WILL EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT FOR THE INNER WATERS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL DIMINISH...BUT MAY LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET.

IN ADDITION...AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ON THE
WATERS TONIGHT...SUBSTANTIALLY REDUCING VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY...EXPECT SW WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KT. SEAS BUILD TO
AROUND 5 FT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS TO THE OUTER WATERS E OF CAPE
COD...BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT THU NIGHT. VSBYS REDUCED IN
AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DENSE OFFSHORE BOTH THU AND FRI NIGHTS.

FRIDAY...LIGHT N-NE WINDS BECOME E DURING THE DAY...THEN SHIFT TO
S-SW FRI NIGHT. EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SW WINDS MAY BRIEFLY GUST TO 25 KT DURING SAT ON
THE EASTERN WATERS...OTHERWISE EXPECT GUSTS UP TO 20 KT SEAS BUILD
AGAIN TO AROUND 5 FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS...WHICH WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE LATE SUN OR SUN NIGHT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/EVT
NEAR TERM...RLG/EVT
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...RLG/EVT
MARINE...RLG/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 262351
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
751 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE THROUGH TOMORROW.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY...
WITH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY HAVING THE HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

740 PM UPDATE...
AS TEMPS REACHED THE MID-UPPER 80S ACROSS W MA/N CENTRAL CT THIS
AFTERNOON...SOME CONVECTION HELD ON AS IT MOVED E OUT OF THE
CENTRAL HUDSON VALLEY INTO W CENTRAL MA OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS.
ONE CELL ACROSS CENTRAL BERKSHIRE COUNTY PRODUCED SOME C/G
LIGHTNING AND HAD A PRETTY GOOD CORE THAT MAY HAVE DROPPED A
LITTLE BIT OF SMALL HAIL. STILL NOTING SOME BRIEF C/G LIGHTNING IN
EASTERN FRANKLIN COUNTY WITH A CELL THERE AT AROUND 2330Z. THESE
CELLS SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WITH SUNSET AND DISSIPATE BY
02Z-03Z.

BEYOND THIS...EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO REDEVELOP ALONG THE S COAST
AND PUSH INLAND ON THE S-SW WINDS OVERNIGHT.




TONIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL START TO
BREAK DOWN WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS COULD LEAD TO A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.  MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE WAS DRY BUT THE
GFS HAS BEEN INDICATING NOT JUST SPRINKLES BUT A GOOD TWO TENTHS OF
AN INCH OF PRECIP.  FEEL THIS MAY BE SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK FROM
THE CONVECTION OVER NEW YORK AND PA THIS EVENING.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT SOME CLOUDINESS AND THAT WITH THE MOIST
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO MUCH.
EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 60S.  THAT WARM...MOIST AIR
FLOWING OVER THE COLDER OCEAN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AREAS OF DENSE
FOG OVER THE OCEAN AND BLEEDING ONTO THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND
ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY DAY FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH
TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 80S IN THE CONNECTICUT AND
MERRIMACK VALLEYS WITH MID 80S ELSEWHERE.  EXCEPTION TO THIS IS
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS WHERE BOTH ONSHORE WINDS
AND PERHAPS LINGERING MARINE STRATUS AND FOG WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM CLIMBING.  EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S IN THESE
LOCATIONS.

THIS LOOKS LIKE THE BETTER DAY FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  HOWEVER...THIS DOESN/T APPEAR TO OCCUR
UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  INSTABILITY IS A BIT BETTER THAN
IT WAS TODAY BUT IS STILL SOMEWHAT LACKING AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
LEAVE PLENTY TO BE DESIRED.  THE MAIN FOCUS FOR STORMS WILL BE OVER
NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA WHERE THE BETTER INSTABILITY AND FOCUSING
WILL BE.  THESE STORMS...MUCH LIKE TODAY...WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN PART OF THE CWA TOWARDS THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
WHILE THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE...THE
MOST LIKELY THREATS WITH THESE STORMS ARE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY
WINDS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST
INTO THE EVENING AS WIND SHEAR INCREASES WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
MOVING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  ANOTHER WARM NIGHT IN STORE WITH
LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

TO START OFF...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES KEEP OVERALL UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER 48...WITH RIDGING ALONG OR
JUST E OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND TROUGHING ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO
THE SOUTHWEST. MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL SLOW DEAMPLIFICATION
OF THE UPPER PATTERN GOING INTO THIS WEEKEND...WITH RIDGE AXIS
FLATTENING OUT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AS A SURFACE FRONT THAT TRIES TO
WORK ACROSS THE REGION WASHES OUT DURING FRIDAY. BERMUDA HIGH RE-
ESTABLISHES FOR EARLY THIS WEEKEND WHILE ANOTHER FRONT WORKS SE OUT
OF QUEBEC. THIS FRONT LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH TO WORK SLOWLY SE AS THE
WESTERN ATLC RIDGE SHIFTS S AND UPPER TROUGHING TAKES OVER ACROSS
THE NORTHERN STREAM. BIG QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER THE FRONT WILL
CLEAR OFF THE S COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK OR WILL IT STALL CLOSER TO OR
OVER SOUTHERN AREAS.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...
THOUGH DID LEAN TOWARD MORE TOWARD THE ENSEMBLES FROM THIS WEEKEND
ONWARD DUE TO TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT. FOR THE
LATTER TIMEFRAME...LEANED CLOSER TO THE SLOWER ECMWF AND ECENS
MEANS.

DETAILS...

THURSDAY...WILL SEE LEFTOVER SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS WESTERN AREAS
THU MORNING WITH PWATS ON ORDER OF AROUND 1.5 INCHES. THE FRONT
SHIFTS S TAKING THE HIGHER PWAT AIR WITH IT...SO EXPECT THE PRECIP
TO TEND TO WEAKEN THOUGH WILL LINGER WHERE MILDER TEMPS ARE THANKS
TO DIURNAL INFLUENCES. INSTABILITY ALSO SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND WEAKENS
SO EXPECT ANY THUNDERSTORMS TO TAPER OFF BY AROUND MIDDAY. BEST SHOT
FOR PRECIP WILL BE FROM THE MERRIMACK VALLEY SE ACROSS CENTRAL MA TO
THE MID AND LOWER CT VALLEY. CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW QUICK DOWNPOURS
THROUGH MIDDAY WITH THE HIGHER PWAT AIRMASS. WILL SEE AREAS OF
FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...DEVELOP ACROSS S COASTAL AREAS THU NIGHT INTO
FRI MORNING.

FRIDAY...MODELS STARTED TO SIGNAL DRIER AIR WORKING IN ON MONDAY...
BUT MOST OF THE MODEL SUITE HAS HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDING S OUT OF
QUEBEC SO EXPECT A DRY BUT MILD DAY. DEWPTS DROP A BIT...DOWN TO THE
50S...BUT WILL BEGIN TO RISE AGAIN FRI NIGHT. WILL SEE A LIGHT E-SE
WIND FLOW SO WILL BE COOLER ALONG THE COAST...HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
70S EXCEPT 65-70 ACROSS COASTAL AREAS...RANGING TO THE LOWER TO MID
80S ACROSS THE CT VALLEY.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REPOSITIONS OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD SO SW
WINDS KICK IN AGAIN BRINGING A RETURN TO MORE HUMID AIR. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT START TO APPROACH OUT OF GREAT LAKES AND WESTERN QUEBEC.
ALSO NOTING INCREASING INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...
WITH K INDICES RISING TO THE LOWER-MID 30S AND TQ VALUES IN THE
UPPER TEENS SO COULD SEE SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION WHICH COULD LAST
INTO SAT NIGHT. BEST LIFT MOVES CLOSER DURING LATE SAT/SAT NIGHT SO
WILL SEE SCT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. A PWAT SWATH OF 1.6 TO
1.75 INCHES PUSHES OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SO MAY SEE SOME HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS WITH ANY CONVECTION.  WILL SEE QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE
EARLY SATURDAY...SO TEMPS WILL REBOUND TO THE 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS
EXCEPT THE LOWER-MID 70S ALONG S COASTAL AREAS.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING...THEN
REACHES THE S COAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECT CHANCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. STILL SOME TIMING ISSUES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF
BUT A BIT BETTER FOR THIS TIMEFRAME. WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE
FRONT...EXPECT SCT PRECIP TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUN NIGHT.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...SOMEWHAT LOWER CONFIDENCE DUE TO TIMING AND
PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES WITH THE FRONT AND WHETHER IT STALLS NEAR THE
S COAST OR OFFSHORE. AT THIS POINT...KEPT CHANCE POPS ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH MIDDAY THEN SHOULD PUSH JUST OFFSHORE BUT
MAY LINGER ACROSS THE ISLANDS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY SUNDAY. MAY
SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS EARLY...THEN INSTABILITY WORKS OFFSHORE BUT
COULD STILL SEE SOME SHOWERS WHILE HIGH PRES MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND.

HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING FOR SOUTHERN AREAS INTO TUESDAY
AS FRONT LOOKS TO LINGER...THEN MAY TRY TO MAKE A RUN BACK NE AS THE
HIGH PUSHES OFF INTO THE GULF OF MAINE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ANY LEFTOVER SHOWERS ACROSS NW MA
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 03Z...BUT MAY PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR TO START...THEN DETERIORATING TO MVFR-IFR
IN AREAS OF FOG ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS. COULD
SEE PASSING SHOWER OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR ALONG THE SOUTH COAST DURING
THE MORNING SHOULD PUSH OFFSHORE. ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE INTERIOR... DROPPING TO MVFR WITHIN ANY -SHRA/-TSRA THAT
DEVELOPS. EXPECT SW WINDS TO GUST UP TO 20-25 KT AT TIMES MAINLY
ACROSS RI/SE MA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO
IFR ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS AS MARITIME FOG AND
STRATUS ROLLS BACK IN.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. COULD SEE CONDITIONS DROP
TO MVFR WITHIN A POP-UP THUNDERSTORM TODAY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR. WILL SEE SCT -SHRA/TSRA WITH LOCAL MVFR-IFR
CONDITIONS. EXPECT AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP DURING THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING PERIOD WITH IFR-LIFR VSBYS.

FRIDAY...VFR. MAY SEE LOCAL MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS EARLY FRI MORNING
ALONG S COAST IN PATCHY FOG...THEN WILL LOWER AGAIN LATE FRI
NIGHT/SAT MORNING TO MVFR-IFR.

SATURDAY...PATCHY FOG EARLY SAT MORNING WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE. SCT SHRA/TSRA SAT THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH LOCAL MVFR-
IFR CONDITIONS. SW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KT MAINLY ALONG THE COAST
SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING.

SUNDAY...SCT SHOWERS TSTMS LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD END
SUN NIGHT. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE UP THROUGH TONIGHT...MAINLY ON THE
OUTER WATERS FOR SEAS AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. SEAS WILL CLIMB TO
5 FEET AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE PERIOD. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
WILL EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT FOR THE INNER WATERS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL DIMINISH...BUT MAY LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET.

IN ADDITION...AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ON THE
WATERS TONIGHT...SUBSTANTIALLY REDUCING VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY...EXPECT SW WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KT. SEAS BUILD TO
AROUND 5 FT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS TO THE OUTER WATERS E OF CAPE
COD...BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT THU NIGHT. VSBYS REDUCED IN
AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DENSE OFFSHORE BOTH THU AND FRI NIGHTS.

FRIDAY...LIGHT N-NE WINDS BECOME E DURING THE DAY...THEN SHIFT TO
S-SW FRI NIGHT. EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SW WINDS MAY BRIEFLY GUST TO 25 KT DURING SAT ON
THE EASTERN WATERS...OTHERWISE EXPECT GUSTS UP TO 20 KT SEAS BUILD
AGAIN TO AROUND 5 FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS...WHICH WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE LATE SUN OR SUN NIGHT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/EVT
NEAR TERM...RLG/EVT
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...RLG/EVT
MARINE...RLG/EVT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 262351
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
751 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE THROUGH TOMORROW.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY...
WITH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY HAVING THE HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

740 PM UPDATE...
AS TEMPS REACHED THE MID-UPPER 80S ACROSS W MA/N CENTRAL CT THIS
AFTERNOON...SOME CONVECTION HELD ON AS IT MOVED E OUT OF THE
CENTRAL HUDSON VALLEY INTO W CENTRAL MA OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS.
ONE CELL ACROSS CENTRAL BERKSHIRE COUNTY PRODUCED SOME C/G
LIGHTNING AND HAD A PRETTY GOOD CORE THAT MAY HAVE DROPPED A
LITTLE BIT OF SMALL HAIL. STILL NOTING SOME BRIEF C/G LIGHTNING IN
EASTERN FRANKLIN COUNTY WITH A CELL THERE AT AROUND 2330Z. THESE
CELLS SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WITH SUNSET AND DISSIPATE BY
02Z-03Z.

BEYOND THIS...EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO REDEVELOP ALONG THE S COAST
AND PUSH INLAND ON THE S-SW WINDS OVERNIGHT.




TONIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL START TO
BREAK DOWN WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS COULD LEAD TO A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.  MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE WAS DRY BUT THE
GFS HAS BEEN INDICATING NOT JUST SPRINKLES BUT A GOOD TWO TENTHS OF
AN INCH OF PRECIP.  FEEL THIS MAY BE SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK FROM
THE CONVECTION OVER NEW YORK AND PA THIS EVENING.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT SOME CLOUDINESS AND THAT WITH THE MOIST
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO MUCH.
EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 60S.  THAT WARM...MOIST AIR
FLOWING OVER THE COLDER OCEAN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AREAS OF DENSE
FOG OVER THE OCEAN AND BLEEDING ONTO THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND
ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY DAY FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH
TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 80S IN THE CONNECTICUT AND
MERRIMACK VALLEYS WITH MID 80S ELSEWHERE.  EXCEPTION TO THIS IS
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS WHERE BOTH ONSHORE WINDS
AND PERHAPS LINGERING MARINE STRATUS AND FOG WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM CLIMBING.  EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S IN THESE
LOCATIONS.

THIS LOOKS LIKE THE BETTER DAY FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  HOWEVER...THIS DOESN/T APPEAR TO OCCUR
UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  INSTABILITY IS A BIT BETTER THAN
IT WAS TODAY BUT IS STILL SOMEWHAT LACKING AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
LEAVE PLENTY TO BE DESIRED.  THE MAIN FOCUS FOR STORMS WILL BE OVER
NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA WHERE THE BETTER INSTABILITY AND FOCUSING
WILL BE.  THESE STORMS...MUCH LIKE TODAY...WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN PART OF THE CWA TOWARDS THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
WHILE THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE...THE
MOST LIKELY THREATS WITH THESE STORMS ARE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY
WINDS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST
INTO THE EVENING AS WIND SHEAR INCREASES WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
MOVING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  ANOTHER WARM NIGHT IN STORE WITH
LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

TO START OFF...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES KEEP OVERALL UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER 48...WITH RIDGING ALONG OR
JUST E OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND TROUGHING ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO
THE SOUTHWEST. MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL SLOW DEAMPLIFICATION
OF THE UPPER PATTERN GOING INTO THIS WEEKEND...WITH RIDGE AXIS
FLATTENING OUT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AS A SURFACE FRONT THAT TRIES TO
WORK ACROSS THE REGION WASHES OUT DURING FRIDAY. BERMUDA HIGH RE-
ESTABLISHES FOR EARLY THIS WEEKEND WHILE ANOTHER FRONT WORKS SE OUT
OF QUEBEC. THIS FRONT LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH TO WORK SLOWLY SE AS THE
WESTERN ATLC RIDGE SHIFTS S AND UPPER TROUGHING TAKES OVER ACROSS
THE NORTHERN STREAM. BIG QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER THE FRONT WILL
CLEAR OFF THE S COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK OR WILL IT STALL CLOSER TO OR
OVER SOUTHERN AREAS.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...
THOUGH DID LEAN TOWARD MORE TOWARD THE ENSEMBLES FROM THIS WEEKEND
ONWARD DUE TO TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT. FOR THE
LATTER TIMEFRAME...LEANED CLOSER TO THE SLOWER ECMWF AND ECENS
MEANS.

DETAILS...

THURSDAY...WILL SEE LEFTOVER SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS WESTERN AREAS
THU MORNING WITH PWATS ON ORDER OF AROUND 1.5 INCHES. THE FRONT
SHIFTS S TAKING THE HIGHER PWAT AIR WITH IT...SO EXPECT THE PRECIP
TO TEND TO WEAKEN THOUGH WILL LINGER WHERE MILDER TEMPS ARE THANKS
TO DIURNAL INFLUENCES. INSTABILITY ALSO SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND WEAKENS
SO EXPECT ANY THUNDERSTORMS TO TAPER OFF BY AROUND MIDDAY. BEST SHOT
FOR PRECIP WILL BE FROM THE MERRIMACK VALLEY SE ACROSS CENTRAL MA TO
THE MID AND LOWER CT VALLEY. CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW QUICK DOWNPOURS
THROUGH MIDDAY WITH THE HIGHER PWAT AIRMASS. WILL SEE AREAS OF
FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...DEVELOP ACROSS S COASTAL AREAS THU NIGHT INTO
FRI MORNING.

FRIDAY...MODELS STARTED TO SIGNAL DRIER AIR WORKING IN ON MONDAY...
BUT MOST OF THE MODEL SUITE HAS HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDING S OUT OF
QUEBEC SO EXPECT A DRY BUT MILD DAY. DEWPTS DROP A BIT...DOWN TO THE
50S...BUT WILL BEGIN TO RISE AGAIN FRI NIGHT. WILL SEE A LIGHT E-SE
WIND FLOW SO WILL BE COOLER ALONG THE COAST...HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
70S EXCEPT 65-70 ACROSS COASTAL AREAS...RANGING TO THE LOWER TO MID
80S ACROSS THE CT VALLEY.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REPOSITIONS OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD SO SW
WINDS KICK IN AGAIN BRINGING A RETURN TO MORE HUMID AIR. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT START TO APPROACH OUT OF GREAT LAKES AND WESTERN QUEBEC.
ALSO NOTING INCREASING INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...
WITH K INDICES RISING TO THE LOWER-MID 30S AND TQ VALUES IN THE
UPPER TEENS SO COULD SEE SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION WHICH COULD LAST
INTO SAT NIGHT. BEST LIFT MOVES CLOSER DURING LATE SAT/SAT NIGHT SO
WILL SEE SCT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. A PWAT SWATH OF 1.6 TO
1.75 INCHES PUSHES OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SO MAY SEE SOME HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS WITH ANY CONVECTION.  WILL SEE QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE
EARLY SATURDAY...SO TEMPS WILL REBOUND TO THE 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS
EXCEPT THE LOWER-MID 70S ALONG S COASTAL AREAS.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING...THEN
REACHES THE S COAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECT CHANCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. STILL SOME TIMING ISSUES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF
BUT A BIT BETTER FOR THIS TIMEFRAME. WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE
FRONT...EXPECT SCT PRECIP TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUN NIGHT.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...SOMEWHAT LOWER CONFIDENCE DUE TO TIMING AND
PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES WITH THE FRONT AND WHETHER IT STALLS NEAR THE
S COAST OR OFFSHORE. AT THIS POINT...KEPT CHANCE POPS ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH MIDDAY THEN SHOULD PUSH JUST OFFSHORE BUT
MAY LINGER ACROSS THE ISLANDS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY SUNDAY. MAY
SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS EARLY...THEN INSTABILITY WORKS OFFSHORE BUT
COULD STILL SEE SOME SHOWERS WHILE HIGH PRES MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND.

HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING FOR SOUTHERN AREAS INTO TUESDAY
AS FRONT LOOKS TO LINGER...THEN MAY TRY TO MAKE A RUN BACK NE AS THE
HIGH PUSHES OFF INTO THE GULF OF MAINE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ANY LEFTOVER SHOWERS ACROSS NW MA
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 03Z...BUT MAY PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR TO START...THEN DETERIORATING TO MVFR-IFR
IN AREAS OF FOG ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS. COULD
SEE PASSING SHOWER OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR ALONG THE SOUTH COAST DURING
THE MORNING SHOULD PUSH OFFSHORE. ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE INTERIOR... DROPPING TO MVFR WITHIN ANY -SHRA/-TSRA THAT
DEVELOPS. EXPECT SW WINDS TO GUST UP TO 20-25 KT AT TIMES MAINLY
ACROSS RI/SE MA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO
IFR ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS AS MARITIME FOG AND
STRATUS ROLLS BACK IN.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. COULD SEE CONDITIONS DROP
TO MVFR WITHIN A POP-UP THUNDERSTORM TODAY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR. WILL SEE SCT -SHRA/TSRA WITH LOCAL MVFR-IFR
CONDITIONS. EXPECT AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP DURING THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING PERIOD WITH IFR-LIFR VSBYS.

FRIDAY...VFR. MAY SEE LOCAL MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS EARLY FRI MORNING
ALONG S COAST IN PATCHY FOG...THEN WILL LOWER AGAIN LATE FRI
NIGHT/SAT MORNING TO MVFR-IFR.

SATURDAY...PATCHY FOG EARLY SAT MORNING WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE. SCT SHRA/TSRA SAT THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH LOCAL MVFR-
IFR CONDITIONS. SW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KT MAINLY ALONG THE COAST
SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING.

SUNDAY...SCT SHOWERS TSTMS LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD END
SUN NIGHT. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE UP THROUGH TONIGHT...MAINLY ON THE
OUTER WATERS FOR SEAS AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. SEAS WILL CLIMB TO
5 FEET AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE PERIOD. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
WILL EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT FOR THE INNER WATERS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL DIMINISH...BUT MAY LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET.

IN ADDITION...AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ON THE
WATERS TONIGHT...SUBSTANTIALLY REDUCING VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY...EXPECT SW WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KT. SEAS BUILD TO
AROUND 5 FT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS TO THE OUTER WATERS E OF CAPE
COD...BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT THU NIGHT. VSBYS REDUCED IN
AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DENSE OFFSHORE BOTH THU AND FRI NIGHTS.

FRIDAY...LIGHT N-NE WINDS BECOME E DURING THE DAY...THEN SHIFT TO
S-SW FRI NIGHT. EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SW WINDS MAY BRIEFLY GUST TO 25 KT DURING SAT ON
THE EASTERN WATERS...OTHERWISE EXPECT GUSTS UP TO 20 KT SEAS BUILD
AGAIN TO AROUND 5 FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS...WHICH WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE LATE SUN OR SUN NIGHT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/EVT
NEAR TERM...RLG/EVT
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...RLG/EVT
MARINE...RLG/EVT




000
FXUS61 KALY 262314
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
714 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH AN INCREASING THREAT
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY
CONTAIN STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL ON WEDNESDAY. MORE
TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS RETURN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FOR THE LAST WEEKEND OF MAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 630 PM EDT...REGIONAL RADAR REVEALS CONVECTION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN BERKSHIRES AND FROM THE SOUTHEAST CATSKILLS AND MID
HUDSON VALLEY BACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY INTO NORTHERN
PA. THIS ACTIVITY IS ALONG A MID LEVEL THETA-E BOUNDARY AND
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS. H2O VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A COUPLE OF WEAK WAVES
TRANSVERSING THE NEAR ZONAL FLOW ACROSS UPSTATE NY. THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...THIS CONVECTION
SHOULD DIMINISH YET THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS LINGERS OVERNIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF THE NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET MAGNITUDES INCREASING
EMBEDDED WITH A DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILES AND HIGHER THETA-E AIR TO
WARRANT THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. A PT-
MOCLOUDY SKY AND HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN A RATHER
WARM/MUGGY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION WITH MAINLY 60S EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR MOST OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED
MOST OF OUR REGION WITHIN THE SLIGHT RISK CATEGORY ON WEDNESDAY.
THE COMBINATION OF A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE WITH PWATS CLIMBING IN
EXCESS OF 1.75 INCHES...SURFACE DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S...SOME
GRADUAL HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS FOR
ENHANCING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO INTERACT WITH INCREASING
BUOYANCY AS SBCAPES CLIMB TOWARD 2K J/KG...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL IS ON THE INCREASE. A DEPARTING UPPER JET WITH ENTRANCE
REGION DYNAMICS AND SHEAR PROFILES INCREASING TO AROUND 30KTS
SHOULD RESULT IN SOME ORGANIZATION. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW
MUCH INSOLATION WE WILL RECEIVE AS THE NCEP MODEL SUITE DOES
SUGGEST AMPLE MOISTURE...ALTHOUGH...MODELS DO TEND TO
OVERESTIMATE. SO WE WILL ADD SOME ENHANCED WORDING TO THE
FORECAST/GRIDS AT THIS TIME. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...MOS GUIDANCE IS
WARMER ON THE MET MOS THAN THE MAV MOS...WE WILL FAVOR THE WARMER
SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

THE FRONTAL AXIS IS PROGGED TO BE OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING
THE EVENING WITH A DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE
CONVECTION AT THAT TIME. HOWEVER...THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND
MAIN UPPER TROUGH HAS YET TO APPROACH SO WE WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS
IN THE GRIDS OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY. IN
FACT...TRENDS IN THE 12Z GUIDANCE ARE A LITTLE FASTER WITH THESE
FEATURES WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. AS FOR THURSDAY HIGHS...AN ENSEMBLE
APPROACH OF THE H850 THERMAL FIELDS SUGGEST COLD ADVECTION WILL BE
OCCURRING THROUGH THE DAY WITH LESS THAN 10C FOR THE DACKS. WE
WILL THEREFORE KEEP TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 65-70F FOR THESE AREAS
AND KEEP 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN MAGNITUDES AS
GUSTS WELL INTO THE 20KTS ARE EXPECTED.

SUBSIDENCE INCREASES QUICKLY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH RISING SURFACE
PRESSURES AND A MUCH DRIER ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN ADVECTING INTO THE
REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE CLEARING SKIES...DIMINISHING WINDS AND
A MORE COMFORTABLE NIGHT AS LOWS DIP BACK INTO THE 50S FOR MOST OF
THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRI-SAT SHOULD TREND BACK TO NEAR...OR
POSSIBLY EVEN A BIT BELOW NORMAL BY SUN-TUE...AS THE EAST COAST
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEAMPLIFIES WITH THE APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
FROM SOUTHERN CANADA. AS IT DEAMPLIFIES...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION SOMETIME LATE SAT OR EARLY SUN. THIS SHOULD BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. DEPENDING ON ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE INCOMING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES/SE CANADA...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE COLD
FRONT SLOWS DOWN AND/OR A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG IT AND TRACKS SOUTH OF
THE REGION. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...SHOWERS OR EVEN A PERIOD OF STEADY
RAIN COULD LINGER IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR SUN INTO EARLY
MON...ESP ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.

SO...INITIALLY EXPECT DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY AS UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE ONCE AGAIN. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE
MODERATE...SO DESPITE MAX TEMPS REACHING THE MID/UPPER 80S IN
PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...APPARENT TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY
REMAIN BELOW 90. FRI NT/SAT AM SHOULD REMAIN DRY...BUT WARM...WITH
MIN TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 60S FOR MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND 55-60 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

FOR SAT-MON...THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT SHOULD APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATER SAT...AND SLOWLY PRESS SOUTH AND EAST SAT NT INTO
EARLY SUN. WILL INDICATE HIGH CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS FOR
SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR SAT AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...GRADUALLY TAPERING
DOWNWARD FROM NW TO SE ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST THE FRONT REACHES...AND WHETHER A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO
LOW CHC FOR MOST CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS INTO MON. MAX TEMPS
SHOULD BE RATHER WARM SAT...WITH TEMPS REACHING 85-90 IN VALLEYS AND
LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. DEWPOINTS SHOULD RISE INTO
THE LOWER 60S...SO APPARENT TEMPS SHOULD BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
ACTUAL HIGH TEMPS OF 85-90. SAT NT/SUN AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
50S TO LOWER 60S...THEN EXPECT COOLER MAX TEMPS FOR SUN INTO
MON...WITH MAXES MAINLY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S SUN...AND MAINLY 60S
FOR MON. SUN NT/MON AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

MON NT-TUE...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACHES. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO LOW
CHC POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. MON
NT/TUE AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S...WITH TUE
MAX TEMPS REACHING 70-75 FOR MOST VALLEYS...AND 65-70 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL MAINTAIN A WARM
AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...ESP FOR
KPOU AND KPSF.

A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING WILL BE AT KPOU AND KPSF. THERE COULD BE BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITHIN ANY HEAVIER DOWNPOURS.

AFTER SUNSET...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD WEAKEN.
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAINFALL OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...THERE COULD BE AREAS OF MVFR OR BORDERLINE IFR CIGS/VSBYS
LATER TONIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT KPSF.

ON WEDNESDAY...AFTER ANY PATCHY LOW CLOUDS/FOG BURN OFF...EXPECT
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z/WED. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP AFTER 18Z/WED...WITH INCREASING CHANCES THEREAFTER. FOR
NOW HAVE PLACED -SHRA IN TAFS AFT 18Z.

WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AT MAINLY
5-10 KT. ON WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND
INCREASE TO 8-12 KT...WITH GUSTS OF 15-22 KT ONCE AGAIN BY LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE STRONGER...AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION IN AND NEAR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WED TO WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

FRIDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS IN THE 50S.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...MAINLY ON WEDNESDAY.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED MODERATE
DROUGHT AT THIS TIME.

WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE BETTER AND MORE
WIDESPREAD CHANCES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INT0 THE EVENING.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.75+ INCHES ARE EXPECTED SO STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM/11
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...KL/WASULA
AVIATION...KL/11
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM



000
FXUS61 KALY 262314
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
714 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH AN INCREASING THREAT
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY
CONTAIN STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL ON WEDNESDAY. MORE
TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS RETURN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FOR THE LAST WEEKEND OF MAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 630 PM EDT...REGIONAL RADAR REVEALS CONVECTION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN BERKSHIRES AND FROM THE SOUTHEAST CATSKILLS AND MID
HUDSON VALLEY BACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY INTO NORTHERN
PA. THIS ACTIVITY IS ALONG A MID LEVEL THETA-E BOUNDARY AND
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS. H2O VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A COUPLE OF WEAK WAVES
TRANSVERSING THE NEAR ZONAL FLOW ACROSS UPSTATE NY. THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...THIS CONVECTION
SHOULD DIMINISH YET THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS LINGERS OVERNIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF THE NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET MAGNITUDES INCREASING
EMBEDDED WITH A DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILES AND HIGHER THETA-E AIR TO
WARRANT THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. A PT-
MOCLOUDY SKY AND HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN A RATHER
WARM/MUGGY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION WITH MAINLY 60S EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR MOST OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED
MOST OF OUR REGION WITHIN THE SLIGHT RISK CATEGORY ON WEDNESDAY.
THE COMBINATION OF A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE WITH PWATS CLIMBING IN
EXCESS OF 1.75 INCHES...SURFACE DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S...SOME
GRADUAL HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS FOR
ENHANCING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO INTERACT WITH INCREASING
BUOYANCY AS SBCAPES CLIMB TOWARD 2K J/KG...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL IS ON THE INCREASE. A DEPARTING UPPER JET WITH ENTRANCE
REGION DYNAMICS AND SHEAR PROFILES INCREASING TO AROUND 30KTS
SHOULD RESULT IN SOME ORGANIZATION. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW
MUCH INSOLATION WE WILL RECEIVE AS THE NCEP MODEL SUITE DOES
SUGGEST AMPLE MOISTURE...ALTHOUGH...MODELS DO TEND TO
OVERESTIMATE. SO WE WILL ADD SOME ENHANCED WORDING TO THE
FORECAST/GRIDS AT THIS TIME. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...MOS GUIDANCE IS
WARMER ON THE MET MOS THAN THE MAV MOS...WE WILL FAVOR THE WARMER
SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

THE FRONTAL AXIS IS PROGGED TO BE OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING
THE EVENING WITH A DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE
CONVECTION AT THAT TIME. HOWEVER...THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND
MAIN UPPER TROUGH HAS YET TO APPROACH SO WE WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS
IN THE GRIDS OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY. IN
FACT...TRENDS IN THE 12Z GUIDANCE ARE A LITTLE FASTER WITH THESE
FEATURES WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. AS FOR THURSDAY HIGHS...AN ENSEMBLE
APPROACH OF THE H850 THERMAL FIELDS SUGGEST COLD ADVECTION WILL BE
OCCURRING THROUGH THE DAY WITH LESS THAN 10C FOR THE DACKS. WE
WILL THEREFORE KEEP TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 65-70F FOR THESE AREAS
AND KEEP 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN MAGNITUDES AS
GUSTS WELL INTO THE 20KTS ARE EXPECTED.

SUBSIDENCE INCREASES QUICKLY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH RISING SURFACE
PRESSURES AND A MUCH DRIER ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN ADVECTING INTO THE
REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE CLEARING SKIES...DIMINISHING WINDS AND
A MORE COMFORTABLE NIGHT AS LOWS DIP BACK INTO THE 50S FOR MOST OF
THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRI-SAT SHOULD TREND BACK TO NEAR...OR
POSSIBLY EVEN A BIT BELOW NORMAL BY SUN-TUE...AS THE EAST COAST
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEAMPLIFIES WITH THE APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
FROM SOUTHERN CANADA. AS IT DEAMPLIFIES...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION SOMETIME LATE SAT OR EARLY SUN. THIS SHOULD BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. DEPENDING ON ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE INCOMING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES/SE CANADA...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE COLD
FRONT SLOWS DOWN AND/OR A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG IT AND TRACKS SOUTH OF
THE REGION. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...SHOWERS OR EVEN A PERIOD OF STEADY
RAIN COULD LINGER IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR SUN INTO EARLY
MON...ESP ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.

SO...INITIALLY EXPECT DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY AS UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE ONCE AGAIN. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE
MODERATE...SO DESPITE MAX TEMPS REACHING THE MID/UPPER 80S IN
PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...APPARENT TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY
REMAIN BELOW 90. FRI NT/SAT AM SHOULD REMAIN DRY...BUT WARM...WITH
MIN TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 60S FOR MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND 55-60 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

FOR SAT-MON...THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT SHOULD APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATER SAT...AND SLOWLY PRESS SOUTH AND EAST SAT NT INTO
EARLY SUN. WILL INDICATE HIGH CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS FOR
SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR SAT AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...GRADUALLY TAPERING
DOWNWARD FROM NW TO SE ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST THE FRONT REACHES...AND WHETHER A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO
LOW CHC FOR MOST CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS INTO MON. MAX TEMPS
SHOULD BE RATHER WARM SAT...WITH TEMPS REACHING 85-90 IN VALLEYS AND
LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. DEWPOINTS SHOULD RISE INTO
THE LOWER 60S...SO APPARENT TEMPS SHOULD BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
ACTUAL HIGH TEMPS OF 85-90. SAT NT/SUN AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
50S TO LOWER 60S...THEN EXPECT COOLER MAX TEMPS FOR SUN INTO
MON...WITH MAXES MAINLY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S SUN...AND MAINLY 60S
FOR MON. SUN NT/MON AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

MON NT-TUE...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACHES. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO LOW
CHC POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. MON
NT/TUE AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S...WITH TUE
MAX TEMPS REACHING 70-75 FOR MOST VALLEYS...AND 65-70 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL MAINTAIN A WARM
AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...ESP FOR
KPOU AND KPSF.

A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING WILL BE AT KPOU AND KPSF. THERE COULD BE BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITHIN ANY HEAVIER DOWNPOURS.

AFTER SUNSET...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD WEAKEN.
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAINFALL OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...THERE COULD BE AREAS OF MVFR OR BORDERLINE IFR CIGS/VSBYS
LATER TONIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT KPSF.

ON WEDNESDAY...AFTER ANY PATCHY LOW CLOUDS/FOG BURN OFF...EXPECT
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z/WED. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP AFTER 18Z/WED...WITH INCREASING CHANCES THEREAFTER. FOR
NOW HAVE PLACED -SHRA IN TAFS AFT 18Z.

WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AT MAINLY
5-10 KT. ON WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND
INCREASE TO 8-12 KT...WITH GUSTS OF 15-22 KT ONCE AGAIN BY LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE STRONGER...AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION IN AND NEAR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WED TO WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

FRIDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS IN THE 50S.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...MAINLY ON WEDNESDAY.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED MODERATE
DROUGHT AT THIS TIME.

WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE BETTER AND MORE
WIDESPREAD CHANCES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INT0 THE EVENING.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.75+ INCHES ARE EXPECTED SO STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM/11
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...KL/WASULA
AVIATION...KL/11
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM




000
FXUS61 KALY 262314
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
714 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH AN INCREASING THREAT
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY
CONTAIN STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL ON WEDNESDAY. MORE
TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS RETURN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FOR THE LAST WEEKEND OF MAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 630 PM EDT...REGIONAL RADAR REVEALS CONVECTION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN BERKSHIRES AND FROM THE SOUTHEAST CATSKILLS AND MID
HUDSON VALLEY BACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY INTO NORTHERN
PA. THIS ACTIVITY IS ALONG A MID LEVEL THETA-E BOUNDARY AND
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS. H2O VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A COUPLE OF WEAK WAVES
TRANSVERSING THE NEAR ZONAL FLOW ACROSS UPSTATE NY. THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...THIS CONVECTION
SHOULD DIMINISH YET THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS LINGERS OVERNIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF THE NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET MAGNITUDES INCREASING
EMBEDDED WITH A DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILES AND HIGHER THETA-E AIR TO
WARRANT THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. A PT-
MOCLOUDY SKY AND HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN A RATHER
WARM/MUGGY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION WITH MAINLY 60S EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR MOST OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED
MOST OF OUR REGION WITHIN THE SLIGHT RISK CATEGORY ON WEDNESDAY.
THE COMBINATION OF A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE WITH PWATS CLIMBING IN
EXCESS OF 1.75 INCHES...SURFACE DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S...SOME
GRADUAL HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS FOR
ENHANCING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO INTERACT WITH INCREASING
BUOYANCY AS SBCAPES CLIMB TOWARD 2K J/KG...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL IS ON THE INCREASE. A DEPARTING UPPER JET WITH ENTRANCE
REGION DYNAMICS AND SHEAR PROFILES INCREASING TO AROUND 30KTS
SHOULD RESULT IN SOME ORGANIZATION. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW
MUCH INSOLATION WE WILL RECEIVE AS THE NCEP MODEL SUITE DOES
SUGGEST AMPLE MOISTURE...ALTHOUGH...MODELS DO TEND TO
OVERESTIMATE. SO WE WILL ADD SOME ENHANCED WORDING TO THE
FORECAST/GRIDS AT THIS TIME. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...MOS GUIDANCE IS
WARMER ON THE MET MOS THAN THE MAV MOS...WE WILL FAVOR THE WARMER
SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

THE FRONTAL AXIS IS PROGGED TO BE OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING
THE EVENING WITH A DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE
CONVECTION AT THAT TIME. HOWEVER...THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND
MAIN UPPER TROUGH HAS YET TO APPROACH SO WE WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS
IN THE GRIDS OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY. IN
FACT...TRENDS IN THE 12Z GUIDANCE ARE A LITTLE FASTER WITH THESE
FEATURES WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. AS FOR THURSDAY HIGHS...AN ENSEMBLE
APPROACH OF THE H850 THERMAL FIELDS SUGGEST COLD ADVECTION WILL BE
OCCURRING THROUGH THE DAY WITH LESS THAN 10C FOR THE DACKS. WE
WILL THEREFORE KEEP TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 65-70F FOR THESE AREAS
AND KEEP 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN MAGNITUDES AS
GUSTS WELL INTO THE 20KTS ARE EXPECTED.

SUBSIDENCE INCREASES QUICKLY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH RISING SURFACE
PRESSURES AND A MUCH DRIER ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN ADVECTING INTO THE
REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE CLEARING SKIES...DIMINISHING WINDS AND
A MORE COMFORTABLE NIGHT AS LOWS DIP BACK INTO THE 50S FOR MOST OF
THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRI-SAT SHOULD TREND BACK TO NEAR...OR
POSSIBLY EVEN A BIT BELOW NORMAL BY SUN-TUE...AS THE EAST COAST
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEAMPLIFIES WITH THE APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
FROM SOUTHERN CANADA. AS IT DEAMPLIFIES...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION SOMETIME LATE SAT OR EARLY SUN. THIS SHOULD BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. DEPENDING ON ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE INCOMING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES/SE CANADA...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE COLD
FRONT SLOWS DOWN AND/OR A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG IT AND TRACKS SOUTH OF
THE REGION. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...SHOWERS OR EVEN A PERIOD OF STEADY
RAIN COULD LINGER IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR SUN INTO EARLY
MON...ESP ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.

SO...INITIALLY EXPECT DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY AS UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE ONCE AGAIN. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE
MODERATE...SO DESPITE MAX TEMPS REACHING THE MID/UPPER 80S IN
PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...APPARENT TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY
REMAIN BELOW 90. FRI NT/SAT AM SHOULD REMAIN DRY...BUT WARM...WITH
MIN TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 60S FOR MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND 55-60 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

FOR SAT-MON...THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT SHOULD APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATER SAT...AND SLOWLY PRESS SOUTH AND EAST SAT NT INTO
EARLY SUN. WILL INDICATE HIGH CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS FOR
SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR SAT AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...GRADUALLY TAPERING
DOWNWARD FROM NW TO SE ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST THE FRONT REACHES...AND WHETHER A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO
LOW CHC FOR MOST CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS INTO MON. MAX TEMPS
SHOULD BE RATHER WARM SAT...WITH TEMPS REACHING 85-90 IN VALLEYS AND
LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. DEWPOINTS SHOULD RISE INTO
THE LOWER 60S...SO APPARENT TEMPS SHOULD BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
ACTUAL HIGH TEMPS OF 85-90. SAT NT/SUN AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
50S TO LOWER 60S...THEN EXPECT COOLER MAX TEMPS FOR SUN INTO
MON...WITH MAXES MAINLY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S SUN...AND MAINLY 60S
FOR MON. SUN NT/MON AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

MON NT-TUE...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACHES. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO LOW
CHC POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. MON
NT/TUE AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S...WITH TUE
MAX TEMPS REACHING 70-75 FOR MOST VALLEYS...AND 65-70 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL MAINTAIN A WARM
AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...ESP FOR
KPOU AND KPSF.

A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING WILL BE AT KPOU AND KPSF. THERE COULD BE BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITHIN ANY HEAVIER DOWNPOURS.

AFTER SUNSET...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD WEAKEN.
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAINFALL OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...THERE COULD BE AREAS OF MVFR OR BORDERLINE IFR CIGS/VSBYS
LATER TONIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT KPSF.

ON WEDNESDAY...AFTER ANY PATCHY LOW CLOUDS/FOG BURN OFF...EXPECT
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z/WED. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP AFTER 18Z/WED...WITH INCREASING CHANCES THEREAFTER. FOR
NOW HAVE PLACED -SHRA IN TAFS AFT 18Z.

WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AT MAINLY
5-10 KT. ON WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND
INCREASE TO 8-12 KT...WITH GUSTS OF 15-22 KT ONCE AGAIN BY LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE STRONGER...AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION IN AND NEAR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WED TO WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

FRIDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS IN THE 50S.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...MAINLY ON WEDNESDAY.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED MODERATE
DROUGHT AT THIS TIME.

WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE BETTER AND MORE
WIDESPREAD CHANCES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INT0 THE EVENING.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.75+ INCHES ARE EXPECTED SO STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM/11
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...KL/WASULA
AVIATION...KL/11
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM



000
FXUS61 KALY 262314
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
714 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH AN INCREASING THREAT
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY
CONTAIN STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL ON WEDNESDAY. MORE
TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS RETURN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FOR THE LAST WEEKEND OF MAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 630 PM EDT...REGIONAL RADAR REVEALS CONVECTION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN BERKSHIRES AND FROM THE SOUTHEAST CATSKILLS AND MID
HUDSON VALLEY BACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY INTO NORTHERN
PA. THIS ACTIVITY IS ALONG A MID LEVEL THETA-E BOUNDARY AND
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS. H2O VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A COUPLE OF WEAK WAVES
TRANSVERSING THE NEAR ZONAL FLOW ACROSS UPSTATE NY. THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...THIS CONVECTION
SHOULD DIMINISH YET THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS LINGERS OVERNIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF THE NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET MAGNITUDES INCREASING
EMBEDDED WITH A DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILES AND HIGHER THETA-E AIR TO
WARRANT THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. A PT-
MOCLOUDY SKY AND HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN A RATHER
WARM/MUGGY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION WITH MAINLY 60S EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR MOST OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED
MOST OF OUR REGION WITHIN THE SLIGHT RISK CATEGORY ON WEDNESDAY.
THE COMBINATION OF A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE WITH PWATS CLIMBING IN
EXCESS OF 1.75 INCHES...SURFACE DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S...SOME
GRADUAL HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS FOR
ENHANCING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO INTERACT WITH INCREASING
BUOYANCY AS SBCAPES CLIMB TOWARD 2K J/KG...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL IS ON THE INCREASE. A DEPARTING UPPER JET WITH ENTRANCE
REGION DYNAMICS AND SHEAR PROFILES INCREASING TO AROUND 30KTS
SHOULD RESULT IN SOME ORGANIZATION. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW
MUCH INSOLATION WE WILL RECEIVE AS THE NCEP MODEL SUITE DOES
SUGGEST AMPLE MOISTURE...ALTHOUGH...MODELS DO TEND TO
OVERESTIMATE. SO WE WILL ADD SOME ENHANCED WORDING TO THE
FORECAST/GRIDS AT THIS TIME. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...MOS GUIDANCE IS
WARMER ON THE MET MOS THAN THE MAV MOS...WE WILL FAVOR THE WARMER
SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

THE FRONTAL AXIS IS PROGGED TO BE OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING
THE EVENING WITH A DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE
CONVECTION AT THAT TIME. HOWEVER...THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND
MAIN UPPER TROUGH HAS YET TO APPROACH SO WE WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS
IN THE GRIDS OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY. IN
FACT...TRENDS IN THE 12Z GUIDANCE ARE A LITTLE FASTER WITH THESE
FEATURES WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. AS FOR THURSDAY HIGHS...AN ENSEMBLE
APPROACH OF THE H850 THERMAL FIELDS SUGGEST COLD ADVECTION WILL BE
OCCURRING THROUGH THE DAY WITH LESS THAN 10C FOR THE DACKS. WE
WILL THEREFORE KEEP TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 65-70F FOR THESE AREAS
AND KEEP 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN MAGNITUDES AS
GUSTS WELL INTO THE 20KTS ARE EXPECTED.

SUBSIDENCE INCREASES QUICKLY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH RISING SURFACE
PRESSURES AND A MUCH DRIER ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN ADVECTING INTO THE
REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE CLEARING SKIES...DIMINISHING WINDS AND
A MORE COMFORTABLE NIGHT AS LOWS DIP BACK INTO THE 50S FOR MOST OF
THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRI-SAT SHOULD TREND BACK TO NEAR...OR
POSSIBLY EVEN A BIT BELOW NORMAL BY SUN-TUE...AS THE EAST COAST
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEAMPLIFIES WITH THE APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
FROM SOUTHERN CANADA. AS IT DEAMPLIFIES...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION SOMETIME LATE SAT OR EARLY SUN. THIS SHOULD BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. DEPENDING ON ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE INCOMING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES/SE CANADA...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE COLD
FRONT SLOWS DOWN AND/OR A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG IT AND TRACKS SOUTH OF
THE REGION. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...SHOWERS OR EVEN A PERIOD OF STEADY
RAIN COULD LINGER IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR SUN INTO EARLY
MON...ESP ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.

SO...INITIALLY EXPECT DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY AS UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE ONCE AGAIN. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE
MODERATE...SO DESPITE MAX TEMPS REACHING THE MID/UPPER 80S IN
PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...APPARENT TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY
REMAIN BELOW 90. FRI NT/SAT AM SHOULD REMAIN DRY...BUT WARM...WITH
MIN TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 60S FOR MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND 55-60 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

FOR SAT-MON...THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT SHOULD APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATER SAT...AND SLOWLY PRESS SOUTH AND EAST SAT NT INTO
EARLY SUN. WILL INDICATE HIGH CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS FOR
SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR SAT AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...GRADUALLY TAPERING
DOWNWARD FROM NW TO SE ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST THE FRONT REACHES...AND WHETHER A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO
LOW CHC FOR MOST CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS INTO MON. MAX TEMPS
SHOULD BE RATHER WARM SAT...WITH TEMPS REACHING 85-90 IN VALLEYS AND
LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. DEWPOINTS SHOULD RISE INTO
THE LOWER 60S...SO APPARENT TEMPS SHOULD BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
ACTUAL HIGH TEMPS OF 85-90. SAT NT/SUN AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
50S TO LOWER 60S...THEN EXPECT COOLER MAX TEMPS FOR SUN INTO
MON...WITH MAXES MAINLY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S SUN...AND MAINLY 60S
FOR MON. SUN NT/MON AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

MON NT-TUE...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACHES. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO LOW
CHC POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. MON
NT/TUE AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S...WITH TUE
MAX TEMPS REACHING 70-75 FOR MOST VALLEYS...AND 65-70 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL MAINTAIN A WARM
AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...ESP FOR
KPOU AND KPSF.

A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING WILL BE AT KPOU AND KPSF. THERE COULD BE BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITHIN ANY HEAVIER DOWNPOURS.

AFTER SUNSET...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD WEAKEN.
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAINFALL OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...THERE COULD BE AREAS OF MVFR OR BORDERLINE IFR CIGS/VSBYS
LATER TONIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT KPSF.

ON WEDNESDAY...AFTER ANY PATCHY LOW CLOUDS/FOG BURN OFF...EXPECT
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z/WED. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP AFTER 18Z/WED...WITH INCREASING CHANCES THEREAFTER. FOR
NOW HAVE PLACED -SHRA IN TAFS AFT 18Z.

WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AT MAINLY
5-10 KT. ON WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND
INCREASE TO 8-12 KT...WITH GUSTS OF 15-22 KT ONCE AGAIN BY LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE STRONGER...AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION IN AND NEAR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WED TO WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

FRIDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS IN THE 50S.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...MAINLY ON WEDNESDAY.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED MODERATE
DROUGHT AT THIS TIME.

WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE BETTER AND MORE
WIDESPREAD CHANCES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INT0 THE EVENING.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.75+ INCHES ARE EXPECTED SO STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM/11
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...KL/WASULA
AVIATION...KL/11
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM




000
FXUS61 KALY 262231
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
631 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH AN INCREASING THREAT
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY
CONTAIN STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL ON WEDNESDAY. MORE
TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS RETURN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FOR THE LAST WEEKEND OF MAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 630 PM EDT...REGIONAL RADAR REVEALS CONVECTION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN BERKSHIRES AND FROM THE SOUTHEAST CATSKILLS AND MID
HUDSON VALLEY BACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY INTO NORTHERN
PA. THIS ACTIVITY IS ALONG A MID LEVEL THETA-E BOUNDARY AND
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS. H2O VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A COUPLE OF WEAK WAVES
TRANSVERSING THE NEAR ZONAL FLOW ACROSS UPSTATE NY. THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...THIS CONVECTION
SHOULD DIMINISH YET THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS LINGERS OVERNIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF THE NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET MAGNITUDES INCREASING
EMBEDDED WITH A DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILES AND HIGHER THETA-E AIR TO
WARRANT THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. A PT-
MOCLOUDY SKY AND HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN A RATHER
WARM/MUGGY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION WITH MAINLY 60S EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
     SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR MOST OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED
MOST OF OUR REGION WITHIN THE SLIGHT RISK CATEGORY ON WEDNESDAY.
THE COMBINATION OF A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE WITH PWATS CLIMBING IN
EXCESS OF 1.75 INCHES...SURFACE DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S...SOME
GRADUAL HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS FOR
ENHANCING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO INTERACT WITH INCREASING
BUOYANCY AS SBCAPES CLIMB TOWARD 2K J/KG...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL IS ON THE INCREASE. A DEPARTING UPPER JET WITH ENTRANCE
REGION DYNAMICS AND SHEAR PROFILES INCREASING TO AROUND 30KTS
SHOULD RESULT IN SOME ORGANIZATION. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW
MUCH INSOLATION WE WILL RECEIVE AS THE NCEP MODEL SUITE DOES
SUGGEST AMPLE MOISTURE...ALTHOUGH...MODELS DO TEND TO
OVERESTIMATE. SO WE WILL ADD SOME ENHANCED WORDING TO THE
FORECAST/GRIDS AT THIS TIME. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...MOS GUIDANCE IS
WARMER ON THE MET MOS THAN THE MAV MOS...WE WILL FAVOR THE WARMER
SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

THE FRONTAL AXIS IS PROGGED TO BE OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING
THE EVENING WITH A DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE
CONVECTION AT THAT TIME. HOWEVER...THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND
MAIN UPPER TROUGH HAS YET TO APPROACH SO WE WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS
IN THE GRIDS OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY. IN
FACT...TRENDS IN THE 12Z GUIDANCE ARE A LITTLE FASTER WITH THESE
FEATURES WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. AS FOR THURSDAY HIGHS...AN ENSEMBLE
APPROACH OF THE H850 THERMAL FIELDS SUGGEST COLD ADVECTION WILL BE
OCCURRING THROUGH THE DAY WITH LESS THAN 10C FOR THE DACKS. WE
WILL THEREFORE KEEP TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 65-70F FOR THESE AREAS
AND KEEP 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN MAGNITUDES AS
GUSTS WELL INTO THE 20KTS ARE EXPECTED.

SUBSIDENCE INCREASES QUICKLY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH RISING SURFACE
PRESSURES AND A MUCH DRIER ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN ADVECTING INTO THE
REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE CLEARING SKIES...DIMINISHING WINDS AND
A MORE COMFORTABLE NIGHT AS LOWS DIP BACK INTO THE 50S FOR MOST OF
THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRI-SAT SHOULD TREND BACK TO NEAR...OR
POSSIBLY EVEN A BIT BELOW NORMAL BY SUN-TUE...AS THE EAST COAST
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEAMPLIFIES WITH THE APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
FROM SOUTHERN CANADA. AS IT DEAMPLIFIES...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION SOMETIME LATE SAT OR EARLY SUN. THIS SHOULD BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. DEPENDING ON ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE INCOMING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES/SE CANADA...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE COLD
FRONT SLOWS DOWN AND/OR A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG IT AND TRACKS SOUTH OF
THE REGION. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...SHOWERS OR EVEN A PERIOD OF STEADY
RAIN COULD LINGER IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR SUN INTO EARLY
MON...ESP ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.

SO...INITIALLY EXPECT DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY AS UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE ONCE AGAIN. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE
MODERATE...SO DESPITE MAX TEMPS REACHING THE MID/UPPER 80S IN
PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...APPARENT TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY
REMAIN BELOW 90. FRI NT/SAT AM SHOULD REMAIN DRY...BUT WARM...WITH
MIN TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 60S FOR MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND 55-60 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

FOR SAT-MON...THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT SHOULD APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATER SAT...AND SLOWLY PRESS SOUTH AND EAST SAT NT INTO
EARLY SUN. WILL INDICATE HIGH CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS FOR
SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR SAT AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...GRADUALLY TAPERING
DOWNWARD FROM NW TO SE ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST THE FRONT REACHES...AND WHETHER A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO
LOW CHC FOR MOST CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS INTO MON. MAX TEMPS
SHOULD BE RATHER WARM SAT...WITH TEMPS REACHING 85-90 IN VALLEYS AND
LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. DEWPOINTS SHOULD RISE INTO
THE LOWER 60S...SO APPARENT TEMPS SHOULD BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
ACTUAL HIGH TEMPS OF 85-90. SAT NT/SUN AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
50S TO LOWER 60S...THEN EXPECT COOLER MAX TEMPS FOR SUN INTO
MON...WITH MAXES MAINLY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S SUN...AND MAINLY 60S
FOR MON. SUN NT/MON AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

MON NT-TUE...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACHES. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO LOW
CHC POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. MON
NT/TUE AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S...WITH TUE
MAX TEMPS REACHING 70-75 FOR MOST VALLEYS...AND 65-70 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL MAINTAIN A WARM
AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING...ESP FOR KPOU/KALB AND KPSF.

A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THROUGH SUNSET...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. HOWEVER...AS
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 20Z-22Z/TUE...AND MAY LINGER UNTIL
ROUGHLY 01Z-03Z/WED. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE AT KALB/KPOU AND KPSF.
THERE COULD BE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITHIN ANY
HEAVIER DOWNPOURS.

AFTER SUNSET...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD WEAKEN.
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAINFALL OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...THERE COULD BE AREAS OF MVFR OR BORDERLINE IFR CIGS/VSBYS
LATER TONIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT KPSF.

ON WEDNESDAY...AFTER ANY PATCHY LOW CLOUDS/FOG BURN OFF...EXPECT
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z/WED. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP AFTER 16Z/WED...WITH INCREASING CHANCES THEREAFTER.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 8-12 KT...WITH
GUSTS OF 15-22 KT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AT MAINLY 5-10 KT. ON WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL BE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 8-12 KT...WITH GUSTS OF 15-22 KT
ONCE AGAIN BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE STRONGER...AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION IN AND NEAR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WED TO WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

FRIDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS IN THE 50S.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...MAINLY ON WEDNESDAY.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED MODERATE
DROUGHT AT THIS TIME.

WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE BETTER AND MORE
WIDESPREAD CHANCES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INT0 THE EVENING.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.75+ INCHES ARE EXPECTED SO STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM/11
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...KL/WASULA
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM




000
FXUS61 KALY 262231
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
631 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH AN INCREASING THREAT
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY
CONTAIN STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL ON WEDNESDAY. MORE
TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS RETURN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FOR THE LAST WEEKEND OF MAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 630 PM EDT...REGIONAL RADAR REVEALS CONVECTION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN BERKSHIRES AND FROM THE SOUTHEAST CATSKILLS AND MID
HUDSON VALLEY BACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY INTO NORTHERN
PA. THIS ACTIVITY IS ALONG A MID LEVEL THETA-E BOUNDARY AND
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS. H2O VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A COUPLE OF WEAK WAVES
TRANSVERSING THE NEAR ZONAL FLOW ACROSS UPSTATE NY. THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...THIS CONVECTION
SHOULD DIMINISH YET THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS LINGERS OVERNIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF THE NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET MAGNITUDES INCREASING
EMBEDDED WITH A DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILES AND HIGHER THETA-E AIR TO
WARRANT THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. A PT-
MOCLOUDY SKY AND HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN A RATHER
WARM/MUGGY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION WITH MAINLY 60S EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
     SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR MOST OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED
MOST OF OUR REGION WITHIN THE SLIGHT RISK CATEGORY ON WEDNESDAY.
THE COMBINATION OF A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE WITH PWATS CLIMBING IN
EXCESS OF 1.75 INCHES...SURFACE DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S...SOME
GRADUAL HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS FOR
ENHANCING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO INTERACT WITH INCREASING
BUOYANCY AS SBCAPES CLIMB TOWARD 2K J/KG...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL IS ON THE INCREASE. A DEPARTING UPPER JET WITH ENTRANCE
REGION DYNAMICS AND SHEAR PROFILES INCREASING TO AROUND 30KTS
SHOULD RESULT IN SOME ORGANIZATION. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW
MUCH INSOLATION WE WILL RECEIVE AS THE NCEP MODEL SUITE DOES
SUGGEST AMPLE MOISTURE...ALTHOUGH...MODELS DO TEND TO
OVERESTIMATE. SO WE WILL ADD SOME ENHANCED WORDING TO THE
FORECAST/GRIDS AT THIS TIME. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...MOS GUIDANCE IS
WARMER ON THE MET MOS THAN THE MAV MOS...WE WILL FAVOR THE WARMER
SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

THE FRONTAL AXIS IS PROGGED TO BE OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING
THE EVENING WITH A DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE
CONVECTION AT THAT TIME. HOWEVER...THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND
MAIN UPPER TROUGH HAS YET TO APPROACH SO WE WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS
IN THE GRIDS OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY. IN
FACT...TRENDS IN THE 12Z GUIDANCE ARE A LITTLE FASTER WITH THESE
FEATURES WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. AS FOR THURSDAY HIGHS...AN ENSEMBLE
APPROACH OF THE H850 THERMAL FIELDS SUGGEST COLD ADVECTION WILL BE
OCCURRING THROUGH THE DAY WITH LESS THAN 10C FOR THE DACKS. WE
WILL THEREFORE KEEP TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 65-70F FOR THESE AREAS
AND KEEP 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN MAGNITUDES AS
GUSTS WELL INTO THE 20KTS ARE EXPECTED.

SUBSIDENCE INCREASES QUICKLY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH RISING SURFACE
PRESSURES AND A MUCH DRIER ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN ADVECTING INTO THE
REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE CLEARING SKIES...DIMINISHING WINDS AND
A MORE COMFORTABLE NIGHT AS LOWS DIP BACK INTO THE 50S FOR MOST OF
THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRI-SAT SHOULD TREND BACK TO NEAR...OR
POSSIBLY EVEN A BIT BELOW NORMAL BY SUN-TUE...AS THE EAST COAST
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEAMPLIFIES WITH THE APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
FROM SOUTHERN CANADA. AS IT DEAMPLIFIES...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION SOMETIME LATE SAT OR EARLY SUN. THIS SHOULD BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. DEPENDING ON ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE INCOMING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES/SE CANADA...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE COLD
FRONT SLOWS DOWN AND/OR A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG IT AND TRACKS SOUTH OF
THE REGION. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...SHOWERS OR EVEN A PERIOD OF STEADY
RAIN COULD LINGER IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR SUN INTO EARLY
MON...ESP ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.

SO...INITIALLY EXPECT DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY AS UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE ONCE AGAIN. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE
MODERATE...SO DESPITE MAX TEMPS REACHING THE MID/UPPER 80S IN
PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...APPARENT TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY
REMAIN BELOW 90. FRI NT/SAT AM SHOULD REMAIN DRY...BUT WARM...WITH
MIN TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 60S FOR MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND 55-60 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

FOR SAT-MON...THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT SHOULD APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATER SAT...AND SLOWLY PRESS SOUTH AND EAST SAT NT INTO
EARLY SUN. WILL INDICATE HIGH CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS FOR
SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR SAT AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...GRADUALLY TAPERING
DOWNWARD FROM NW TO SE ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST THE FRONT REACHES...AND WHETHER A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO
LOW CHC FOR MOST CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS INTO MON. MAX TEMPS
SHOULD BE RATHER WARM SAT...WITH TEMPS REACHING 85-90 IN VALLEYS AND
LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. DEWPOINTS SHOULD RISE INTO
THE LOWER 60S...SO APPARENT TEMPS SHOULD BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
ACTUAL HIGH TEMPS OF 85-90. SAT NT/SUN AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
50S TO LOWER 60S...THEN EXPECT COOLER MAX TEMPS FOR SUN INTO
MON...WITH MAXES MAINLY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S SUN...AND MAINLY 60S
FOR MON. SUN NT/MON AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

MON NT-TUE...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACHES. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO LOW
CHC POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. MON
NT/TUE AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S...WITH TUE
MAX TEMPS REACHING 70-75 FOR MOST VALLEYS...AND 65-70 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL MAINTAIN A WARM
AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING...ESP FOR KPOU/KALB AND KPSF.

A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THROUGH SUNSET...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. HOWEVER...AS
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 20Z-22Z/TUE...AND MAY LINGER UNTIL
ROUGHLY 01Z-03Z/WED. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE AT KALB/KPOU AND KPSF.
THERE COULD BE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITHIN ANY
HEAVIER DOWNPOURS.

AFTER SUNSET...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD WEAKEN.
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAINFALL OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...THERE COULD BE AREAS OF MVFR OR BORDERLINE IFR CIGS/VSBYS
LATER TONIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT KPSF.

ON WEDNESDAY...AFTER ANY PATCHY LOW CLOUDS/FOG BURN OFF...EXPECT
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z/WED. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP AFTER 16Z/WED...WITH INCREASING CHANCES THEREAFTER.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 8-12 KT...WITH
GUSTS OF 15-22 KT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AT MAINLY 5-10 KT. ON WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL BE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 8-12 KT...WITH GUSTS OF 15-22 KT
ONCE AGAIN BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE STRONGER...AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION IN AND NEAR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WED TO WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

FRIDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS IN THE 50S.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...MAINLY ON WEDNESDAY.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED MODERATE
DROUGHT AT THIS TIME.

WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE BETTER AND MORE
WIDESPREAD CHANCES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INT0 THE EVENING.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.75+ INCHES ARE EXPECTED SO STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM/11
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...KL/WASULA
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM



000
FXUS61 KBOX 262130
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
530 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE THROUGH TOMORROW.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY...
WITH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY HAVING THE HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
TEMPERATURES HAVE SOARED INTO THE UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
CONNECTICUT...MERRIMACK AND PIONEER VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE...TEMPERATURES VARY FROM THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S.
CLOUD COVER HAS FINALLY DISSIPATED TO THIN CIRRUS WHICH HAS ALLOWED
THE TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB JUST IN THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS.

IN ADDITION...DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED ACROSS NEW
YORK STATE AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...AS WELL AS FAR WESTERN
MASSACHUSETTS.  THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE GREATER INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE IN THESE AREAS.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE POPPED
MAINLY OVER NEW YORK STATE AND PENNSYLVANIA.  AS THESE TRAVEL
EASTWARD INTO MASSACHUSETTS THEY HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING IN INTENSITY
AND AREAL COVERAGE.

WHILE I EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE...A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO COULD MAKE IT INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  IF THEY DO...EXPECT
BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL...SOME THUNDER AND LIGHTNING...AND GUSTY WINDS
AT MOST.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL START TO
BREAK DOWN WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS COULD LEAD TO A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.  MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE WAS DRY BUT THE
GFS HAS BEEN INDICATING NOT JUST SPRINKLES BUT A GOOD TWO TENTHS OF
AN INCH OF PRECIP.  FEEL THIS MAY BE SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK FROM
THE CONVECTION OVER NEW YORK AND PA THIS EVENING.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT SOME CLOUDINESS AND THAT WITH THE MOIST
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO MUCH.
EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 60S.  THAT WARM...MOIST AIR
FLOWING OVER THE COLDER OCEAN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AREAS OF DENSE
FOG OVER THE OCEAN AND BLEEDING ONTO THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND
ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY DAY FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH
TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 80S IN THE CONNECTICUT AND
MERRIMACK VALLEYS WITH MID 80S ELSEWHERE.  EXCEPTION TO THIS IS
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS WHERE BOTH ONSHORE WINDS
AND PERHAPS LINGERING MARINE STRATUS AND FOG WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM CLIMBING.  EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S IN THESE
LOCATIONS.

THIS LOOKS LIKE THE BETTER DAY FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  HOWEVER...THIS DOESN/T APPEAR TO OCCUR
UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  INSTABILITY IS A BIT BETTER THAN
IT WAS TODAY BUT IS STILL SOMEWHAT LACKING AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
LEAVE PLENTY TO BE DESIRED.  THE MAIN FOCUS FOR STORMS WILL BE OVER
NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA WHERE THE BETTER INSTABILITY AND FOCUSING
WILL BE.  THESE STORMS...MUCH LIKE TODAY...WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN PART OF THE CWA TOWARDS THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
WHILE THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE...THE
MOST LIKELY THREATS WITH THESE STORMS ARE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY
WINDS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST
INTO THE EVENING AS WIND SHEAR INCREASES WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
MOVING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  ANOTHER WARM NIGHT IN STORE WITH
LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

TO START OFF...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES KEEP OVERALL UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER 48...WITH RIDGING ALONG OR
JUST E OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND TROUGHING ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO
THE SOUTHWEST. MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL SLOW DEAMPLIFICATION
OF THE UPPER PATTERN GOING INTO THIS WEEKEND...WITH RIDGE AXIS
FLATTENING OUT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AS A SURFACE FRONT THAT TRIES TO
WORK ACROSS THE REGION WASHES OUT DURING FRIDAY. BERMUDA HIGH RE-
ESTABLISHES FOR EARLY THIS WEEKEND WHILE ANOTHER FRONT WORKS SE OUT
OF QUEBEC. THIS FRONT LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH TO WORK SLOWLY SE AS THE
WESTERN ATLC RIDGE SHIFTS S AND UPPER TROUGHING TAKES OVER ACROSS
THE NORTHERN STREAM. BIG QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER THE FRONT WILL
CLEAR OFF THE S COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK OR WILL IT STALL CLOSER TO OR
OVER SOUTHERN AREAS.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...
THOUGH DID LEAN TOWARD MORE TOWARD THE ENSEMBLES FROM THIS WEEKEND
ONWARD DUE TO TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT. FOR THE
LATTER TIMEFRAME...LEANED CLOSER TO THE SLOWER ECMWF AND ECENS
MEANS.

DETAILS...

THURSDAY...WILL SEE LEFTOVER SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS WESTERN AREAS
THU MORNING WITH PWATS ON ORDER OF AROUND 1.5 INCHES. THE FRONT
SHIFTS S TAKING THE HIGHER PWAT AIR WITH IT...SO EXPECT THE PRECIP
TO TEND TO WEAKEN THOUGH WILL LINGER WHERE MILDER TEMPS ARE THANKS
TO DIURNAL INFLUENCES. INSTABILITY ALSO SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND WEAKENS
SO EXPECT ANY THUNDERSTORMS TO TAPER OFF BY AROUND MIDDAY. BEST SHOT
FOR PRECIP WILL BE FROM THE MERRIMACK VALLEY SE ACROSS CENTRAL MA TO
THE MID AND LOWER CT VALLEY. CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW QUICK DOWNPOURS
THROUGH MIDDAY WITH THE HIGHER PWAT AIRMASS. WILL SEE AREAS OF
FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...DEVELOP ACROSS S COASTAL AREAS THU NIGHT INTO
FRI MORNING.

FRIDAY...MODELS STARTED TO SIGNAL DRIER AIR WORKING IN ON MONDAY...
BUT MOST OF THE MODEL SUITE HAS HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDING S OUT OF
QUEBEC SO EXPECT A DRY BUT MILD DAY. DEWPTS DROP A BIT...DOWN TO THE
50S...BUT WILL BEGIN TO RISE AGAIN FRI NIGHT. WILL SEE A LIGHT E-SE
WIND FLOW SO WILL BE COOLER ALONG THE COAST...HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
70S EXCEPT 65-70 ACROSS COASTAL AREAS...RANGING TO THE LOWER TO MID
80S ACROSS THE CT VALLEY.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REPOSITIONS OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD SO SW
WINDS KICK IN AGAIN BRINGING A RETURN TO MORE HUMID AIR. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT START TO APPROACH OUT OF GREAT LAKES AND WESTERN QUEBEC.
ALSO NOTING INCREASING INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...
WITH K INDICES RISING TO THE LOWER-MID 30S AND TQ VALUES IN THE
UPPER TEENS SO COULD SEE SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION WHICH COULD LAST
INTO SAT NIGHT. BEST LIFT MOVES CLOSER DURING LATE SAT/SAT NIGHT SO
WILL SEE SCT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. A PWAT SWATH OF 1.6 TO
1.75 INCHES PUSHES OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SO MAY SEE SOME HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS WITH ANY CONVECTION.  WILL SEE QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE
EARLY SATURDAY...SO TEMPS WILL REBOUND TO THE 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS
EXCEPT THE LOWER-MID 70S ALONG S COASTAL AREAS.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING...THEN
REACHES THE S COAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECT CHANCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. STILL SOME TIMING ISSUES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF
BUT A BIT BETTER FOR THIS TIMEFRAME. WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE
FRONT...EXPECT SCT PRECIP TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUN NIGHT.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...SOMEWHAT LOWER CONFIDENCE DUE TO TIMING AND
PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES WITH THE FRONT AND WHETHER IT STALLS NEAR THE
S COAST OR OFFSHORE. AT THIS POINT...KEPT CHANCE POPS ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH MIDDAY THEN SHOULD PUSH JUST OFFSHORE BUT
MAY LINGER ACROSS THE ISLANDS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY SUNDAY. MAY
SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS EARLY...THEN INSTABILITY WORKS OFFSHORE BUT
COULD STILL SEE SOME SHOWERS WHILE HIGH PRES MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND.

HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING FOR SOUTHERN AREAS INTO TUESDAY
AS FRONT LOOKS TO LINGER...THEN MAY TRY TO MAKE A RUN BACK NE AS THE
HIGH PUSHES OFF INTO THE GULF OF MAINE.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THROUGH 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. CHANCE OF A TSTM WITH MVFR
VSBYS/CIGS ACROSS CT/PIONEER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. IFR STRATUS
AND FOG WILL INCREASE ACROSS SOUTH COAST LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR IN
AREAS OF FOG ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS. COULD SEE
PASSING SHOWER OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR ALONG THE SOUTH COAST DURING
THE MORNING SHOULD PUSH OFFSHORE. ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE INTERIOR... DROPPING TO MVFR WITHIN ANY -SHRA/-TSRA THAT
DEVELOPS. EXPECT SW WINDS TO GUST UP TO 20-25 KT AT TIMES MAINLY
ACROSS RI/SE MA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO
IFR ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS AS MARITIME FOG AND
STRATUS ROLLS BACK IN.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. COULD SEE CONDITIONS DROP
TO MVFR WITHIN A POP-UP THUNDERSTORM TODAY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR. WILL SEE SCT -SHRA/TSRA WITH LOCAL MVFR-IFR
CONDITIONS. EXPECT AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP DURING THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING PERIOD WITH IFR-LIFR VSBYS.

FRIDAY...VFR. MAY SEE LOCAL MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS EARLY FRI MORNING
ALONG S COAST IN PATCHY FOG...THEN WILL LOWER AGAIN LATE FRI
NIGHT/SAT MORNING TO MVFR-IFR.

SATURDAY...PATCHY FOG EARLY SAT MORNING WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE. SCT SHRA/TSRA SAT THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH LOCAL MVFR-
IFR CONDITIONS. SW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KT MAINLY ALONG THE COAST
SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING.

SUNDAY...SCT SHOWERS TSTMS LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD END
SUN NIGHT. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE UP THROUGH TONIGHT...MAINLY ON THE
OUTER WATERS FOR SEAS AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. SEAS WILL CLIMB TO
5 FEET AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE PERIOD. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
WILL EXPIRE THIS EVENING FOR THE INNER WATERS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.

IN ADDITION...AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ON THE
WATERS TONIGHT...SUBSTANTIALLY REDUCING VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY...EXPECT SW WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KT. SEAS BUILD TO
AROUND 5 FT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS TO THE OUTER WATERS E OF CAPE
COD...BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT THU NIGHT. VSBYS REDUCED IN
AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DENSE OFFSHORE BOTH THU AND FRI NIGHTS.

FRIDAY...LIGHT N-NE WINDS BECOME E DURING THE DAY...THEN SHIFT TO
S-SW FRI NIGHT. EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SW WINDS MAY BRIEFLY GUST TO 25 KT DURING SAT ON
THE EASTERN WATERS...OTHERWISE EXPECT GUSTS UP TO 20 KT SEAS BUILD
AGAIN TO AROUND 5 FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS...WHICH WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE LATE SUN OR SUN NIGHT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/EVT
NEAR TERM...RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...RLG/EVT
MARINE...RLG/EVT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 262130
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
530 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE THROUGH TOMORROW.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY...
WITH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY HAVING THE HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
TEMPERATURES HAVE SOARED INTO THE UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
CONNECTICUT...MERRIMACK AND PIONEER VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE...TEMPERATURES VARY FROM THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S.
CLOUD COVER HAS FINALLY DISSIPATED TO THIN CIRRUS WHICH HAS ALLOWED
THE TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB JUST IN THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS.

IN ADDITION...DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED ACROSS NEW
YORK STATE AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...AS WELL AS FAR WESTERN
MASSACHUSETTS.  THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE GREATER INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE IN THESE AREAS.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE POPPED
MAINLY OVER NEW YORK STATE AND PENNSYLVANIA.  AS THESE TRAVEL
EASTWARD INTO MASSACHUSETTS THEY HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING IN INTENSITY
AND AREAL COVERAGE.

WHILE I EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE...A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO COULD MAKE IT INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  IF THEY DO...EXPECT
BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL...SOME THUNDER AND LIGHTNING...AND GUSTY WINDS
AT MOST.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL START TO
BREAK DOWN WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS COULD LEAD TO A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.  MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE WAS DRY BUT THE
GFS HAS BEEN INDICATING NOT JUST SPRINKLES BUT A GOOD TWO TENTHS OF
AN INCH OF PRECIP.  FEEL THIS MAY BE SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK FROM
THE CONVECTION OVER NEW YORK AND PA THIS EVENING.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT SOME CLOUDINESS AND THAT WITH THE MOIST
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO MUCH.
EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 60S.  THAT WARM...MOIST AIR
FLOWING OVER THE COLDER OCEAN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AREAS OF DENSE
FOG OVER THE OCEAN AND BLEEDING ONTO THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND
ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY DAY FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH
TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 80S IN THE CONNECTICUT AND
MERRIMACK VALLEYS WITH MID 80S ELSEWHERE.  EXCEPTION TO THIS IS
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS WHERE BOTH ONSHORE WINDS
AND PERHAPS LINGERING MARINE STRATUS AND FOG WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM CLIMBING.  EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S IN THESE
LOCATIONS.

THIS LOOKS LIKE THE BETTER DAY FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  HOWEVER...THIS DOESN/T APPEAR TO OCCUR
UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  INSTABILITY IS A BIT BETTER THAN
IT WAS TODAY BUT IS STILL SOMEWHAT LACKING AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
LEAVE PLENTY TO BE DESIRED.  THE MAIN FOCUS FOR STORMS WILL BE OVER
NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA WHERE THE BETTER INSTABILITY AND FOCUSING
WILL BE.  THESE STORMS...MUCH LIKE TODAY...WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN PART OF THE CWA TOWARDS THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
WHILE THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE...THE
MOST LIKELY THREATS WITH THESE STORMS ARE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY
WINDS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST
INTO THE EVENING AS WIND SHEAR INCREASES WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
MOVING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  ANOTHER WARM NIGHT IN STORE WITH
LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

TO START OFF...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES KEEP OVERALL UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER 48...WITH RIDGING ALONG OR
JUST E OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND TROUGHING ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO
THE SOUTHWEST. MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL SLOW DEAMPLIFICATION
OF THE UPPER PATTERN GOING INTO THIS WEEKEND...WITH RIDGE AXIS
FLATTENING OUT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AS A SURFACE FRONT THAT TRIES TO
WORK ACROSS THE REGION WASHES OUT DURING FRIDAY. BERMUDA HIGH RE-
ESTABLISHES FOR EARLY THIS WEEKEND WHILE ANOTHER FRONT WORKS SE OUT
OF QUEBEC. THIS FRONT LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH TO WORK SLOWLY SE AS THE
WESTERN ATLC RIDGE SHIFTS S AND UPPER TROUGHING TAKES OVER ACROSS
THE NORTHERN STREAM. BIG QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER THE FRONT WILL
CLEAR OFF THE S COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK OR WILL IT STALL CLOSER TO OR
OVER SOUTHERN AREAS.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...
THOUGH DID LEAN TOWARD MORE TOWARD THE ENSEMBLES FROM THIS WEEKEND
ONWARD DUE TO TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT. FOR THE
LATTER TIMEFRAME...LEANED CLOSER TO THE SLOWER ECMWF AND ECENS
MEANS.

DETAILS...

THURSDAY...WILL SEE LEFTOVER SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS WESTERN AREAS
THU MORNING WITH PWATS ON ORDER OF AROUND 1.5 INCHES. THE FRONT
SHIFTS S TAKING THE HIGHER PWAT AIR WITH IT...SO EXPECT THE PRECIP
TO TEND TO WEAKEN THOUGH WILL LINGER WHERE MILDER TEMPS ARE THANKS
TO DIURNAL INFLUENCES. INSTABILITY ALSO SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND WEAKENS
SO EXPECT ANY THUNDERSTORMS TO TAPER OFF BY AROUND MIDDAY. BEST SHOT
FOR PRECIP WILL BE FROM THE MERRIMACK VALLEY SE ACROSS CENTRAL MA TO
THE MID AND LOWER CT VALLEY. CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW QUICK DOWNPOURS
THROUGH MIDDAY WITH THE HIGHER PWAT AIRMASS. WILL SEE AREAS OF
FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...DEVELOP ACROSS S COASTAL AREAS THU NIGHT INTO
FRI MORNING.

FRIDAY...MODELS STARTED TO SIGNAL DRIER AIR WORKING IN ON MONDAY...
BUT MOST OF THE MODEL SUITE HAS HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDING S OUT OF
QUEBEC SO EXPECT A DRY BUT MILD DAY. DEWPTS DROP A BIT...DOWN TO THE
50S...BUT WILL BEGIN TO RISE AGAIN FRI NIGHT. WILL SEE A LIGHT E-SE
WIND FLOW SO WILL BE COOLER ALONG THE COAST...HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
70S EXCEPT 65-70 ACROSS COASTAL AREAS...RANGING TO THE LOWER TO MID
80S ACROSS THE CT VALLEY.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REPOSITIONS OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD SO SW
WINDS KICK IN AGAIN BRINGING A RETURN TO MORE HUMID AIR. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT START TO APPROACH OUT OF GREAT LAKES AND WESTERN QUEBEC.
ALSO NOTING INCREASING INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...
WITH K INDICES RISING TO THE LOWER-MID 30S AND TQ VALUES IN THE
UPPER TEENS SO COULD SEE SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION WHICH COULD LAST
INTO SAT NIGHT. BEST LIFT MOVES CLOSER DURING LATE SAT/SAT NIGHT SO
WILL SEE SCT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. A PWAT SWATH OF 1.6 TO
1.75 INCHES PUSHES OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SO MAY SEE SOME HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS WITH ANY CONVECTION.  WILL SEE QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE
EARLY SATURDAY...SO TEMPS WILL REBOUND TO THE 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS
EXCEPT THE LOWER-MID 70S ALONG S COASTAL AREAS.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING...THEN
REACHES THE S COAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECT CHANCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. STILL SOME TIMING ISSUES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF
BUT A BIT BETTER FOR THIS TIMEFRAME. WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE
FRONT...EXPECT SCT PRECIP TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUN NIGHT.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...SOMEWHAT LOWER CONFIDENCE DUE TO TIMING AND
PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES WITH THE FRONT AND WHETHER IT STALLS NEAR THE
S COAST OR OFFSHORE. AT THIS POINT...KEPT CHANCE POPS ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH MIDDAY THEN SHOULD PUSH JUST OFFSHORE BUT
MAY LINGER ACROSS THE ISLANDS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY SUNDAY. MAY
SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS EARLY...THEN INSTABILITY WORKS OFFSHORE BUT
COULD STILL SEE SOME SHOWERS WHILE HIGH PRES MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND.

HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING FOR SOUTHERN AREAS INTO TUESDAY
AS FRONT LOOKS TO LINGER...THEN MAY TRY TO MAKE A RUN BACK NE AS THE
HIGH PUSHES OFF INTO THE GULF OF MAINE.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THROUGH 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. CHANCE OF A TSTM WITH MVFR
VSBYS/CIGS ACROSS CT/PIONEER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. IFR STRATUS
AND FOG WILL INCREASE ACROSS SOUTH COAST LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR IN
AREAS OF FOG ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS. COULD SEE
PASSING SHOWER OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR ALONG THE SOUTH COAST DURING
THE MORNING SHOULD PUSH OFFSHORE. ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE INTERIOR... DROPPING TO MVFR WITHIN ANY -SHRA/-TSRA THAT
DEVELOPS. EXPECT SW WINDS TO GUST UP TO 20-25 KT AT TIMES MAINLY
ACROSS RI/SE MA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO
IFR ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS AS MARITIME FOG AND
STRATUS ROLLS BACK IN.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. COULD SEE CONDITIONS DROP
TO MVFR WITHIN A POP-UP THUNDERSTORM TODAY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR. WILL SEE SCT -SHRA/TSRA WITH LOCAL MVFR-IFR
CONDITIONS. EXPECT AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP DURING THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING PERIOD WITH IFR-LIFR VSBYS.

FRIDAY...VFR. MAY SEE LOCAL MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS EARLY FRI MORNING
ALONG S COAST IN PATCHY FOG...THEN WILL LOWER AGAIN LATE FRI
NIGHT/SAT MORNING TO MVFR-IFR.

SATURDAY...PATCHY FOG EARLY SAT MORNING WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE. SCT SHRA/TSRA SAT THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH LOCAL MVFR-
IFR CONDITIONS. SW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KT MAINLY ALONG THE COAST
SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING.

SUNDAY...SCT SHOWERS TSTMS LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD END
SUN NIGHT. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE UP THROUGH TONIGHT...MAINLY ON THE
OUTER WATERS FOR SEAS AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. SEAS WILL CLIMB TO
5 FEET AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE PERIOD. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
WILL EXPIRE THIS EVENING FOR THE INNER WATERS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.

IN ADDITION...AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ON THE
WATERS TONIGHT...SUBSTANTIALLY REDUCING VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY...EXPECT SW WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KT. SEAS BUILD TO
AROUND 5 FT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS TO THE OUTER WATERS E OF CAPE
COD...BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT THU NIGHT. VSBYS REDUCED IN
AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DENSE OFFSHORE BOTH THU AND FRI NIGHTS.

FRIDAY...LIGHT N-NE WINDS BECOME E DURING THE DAY...THEN SHIFT TO
S-SW FRI NIGHT. EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SW WINDS MAY BRIEFLY GUST TO 25 KT DURING SAT ON
THE EASTERN WATERS...OTHERWISE EXPECT GUSTS UP TO 20 KT SEAS BUILD
AGAIN TO AROUND 5 FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS...WHICH WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE LATE SUN OR SUN NIGHT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/EVT
NEAR TERM...RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...RLG/EVT
MARINE...RLG/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 262130
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
530 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE THROUGH TOMORROW.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY...
WITH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY HAVING THE HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
TEMPERATURES HAVE SOARED INTO THE UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
CONNECTICUT...MERRIMACK AND PIONEER VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE...TEMPERATURES VARY FROM THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S.
CLOUD COVER HAS FINALLY DISSIPATED TO THIN CIRRUS WHICH HAS ALLOWED
THE TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB JUST IN THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS.

IN ADDITION...DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED ACROSS NEW
YORK STATE AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...AS WELL AS FAR WESTERN
MASSACHUSETTS.  THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE GREATER INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE IN THESE AREAS.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE POPPED
MAINLY OVER NEW YORK STATE AND PENNSYLVANIA.  AS THESE TRAVEL
EASTWARD INTO MASSACHUSETTS THEY HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING IN INTENSITY
AND AREAL COVERAGE.

WHILE I EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE...A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO COULD MAKE IT INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  IF THEY DO...EXPECT
BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL...SOME THUNDER AND LIGHTNING...AND GUSTY WINDS
AT MOST.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL START TO
BREAK DOWN WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS COULD LEAD TO A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.  MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE WAS DRY BUT THE
GFS HAS BEEN INDICATING NOT JUST SPRINKLES BUT A GOOD TWO TENTHS OF
AN INCH OF PRECIP.  FEEL THIS MAY BE SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK FROM
THE CONVECTION OVER NEW YORK AND PA THIS EVENING.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT SOME CLOUDINESS AND THAT WITH THE MOIST
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO MUCH.
EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 60S.  THAT WARM...MOIST AIR
FLOWING OVER THE COLDER OCEAN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AREAS OF DENSE
FOG OVER THE OCEAN AND BLEEDING ONTO THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND
ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY DAY FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH
TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 80S IN THE CONNECTICUT AND
MERRIMACK VALLEYS WITH MID 80S ELSEWHERE.  EXCEPTION TO THIS IS
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS WHERE BOTH ONSHORE WINDS
AND PERHAPS LINGERING MARINE STRATUS AND FOG WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM CLIMBING.  EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S IN THESE
LOCATIONS.

THIS LOOKS LIKE THE BETTER DAY FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  HOWEVER...THIS DOESN/T APPEAR TO OCCUR
UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  INSTABILITY IS A BIT BETTER THAN
IT WAS TODAY BUT IS STILL SOMEWHAT LACKING AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
LEAVE PLENTY TO BE DESIRED.  THE MAIN FOCUS FOR STORMS WILL BE OVER
NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA WHERE THE BETTER INSTABILITY AND FOCUSING
WILL BE.  THESE STORMS...MUCH LIKE TODAY...WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN PART OF THE CWA TOWARDS THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
WHILE THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE...THE
MOST LIKELY THREATS WITH THESE STORMS ARE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY
WINDS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST
INTO THE EVENING AS WIND SHEAR INCREASES WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
MOVING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  ANOTHER WARM NIGHT IN STORE WITH
LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

TO START OFF...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES KEEP OVERALL UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER 48...WITH RIDGING ALONG OR
JUST E OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND TROUGHING ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO
THE SOUTHWEST. MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL SLOW DEAMPLIFICATION
OF THE UPPER PATTERN GOING INTO THIS WEEKEND...WITH RIDGE AXIS
FLATTENING OUT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AS A SURFACE FRONT THAT TRIES TO
WORK ACROSS THE REGION WASHES OUT DURING FRIDAY. BERMUDA HIGH RE-
ESTABLISHES FOR EARLY THIS WEEKEND WHILE ANOTHER FRONT WORKS SE OUT
OF QUEBEC. THIS FRONT LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH TO WORK SLOWLY SE AS THE
WESTERN ATLC RIDGE SHIFTS S AND UPPER TROUGHING TAKES OVER ACROSS
THE NORTHERN STREAM. BIG QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER THE FRONT WILL
CLEAR OFF THE S COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK OR WILL IT STALL CLOSER TO OR
OVER SOUTHERN AREAS.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...
THOUGH DID LEAN TOWARD MORE TOWARD THE ENSEMBLES FROM THIS WEEKEND
ONWARD DUE TO TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT. FOR THE
LATTER TIMEFRAME...LEANED CLOSER TO THE SLOWER ECMWF AND ECENS
MEANS.

DETAILS...

THURSDAY...WILL SEE LEFTOVER SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS WESTERN AREAS
THU MORNING WITH PWATS ON ORDER OF AROUND 1.5 INCHES. THE FRONT
SHIFTS S TAKING THE HIGHER PWAT AIR WITH IT...SO EXPECT THE PRECIP
TO TEND TO WEAKEN THOUGH WILL LINGER WHERE MILDER TEMPS ARE THANKS
TO DIURNAL INFLUENCES. INSTABILITY ALSO SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND WEAKENS
SO EXPECT ANY THUNDERSTORMS TO TAPER OFF BY AROUND MIDDAY. BEST SHOT
FOR PRECIP WILL BE FROM THE MERRIMACK VALLEY SE ACROSS CENTRAL MA TO
THE MID AND LOWER CT VALLEY. CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW QUICK DOWNPOURS
THROUGH MIDDAY WITH THE HIGHER PWAT AIRMASS. WILL SEE AREAS OF
FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...DEVELOP ACROSS S COASTAL AREAS THU NIGHT INTO
FRI MORNING.

FRIDAY...MODELS STARTED TO SIGNAL DRIER AIR WORKING IN ON MONDAY...
BUT MOST OF THE MODEL SUITE HAS HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDING S OUT OF
QUEBEC SO EXPECT A DRY BUT MILD DAY. DEWPTS DROP A BIT...DOWN TO THE
50S...BUT WILL BEGIN TO RISE AGAIN FRI NIGHT. WILL SEE A LIGHT E-SE
WIND FLOW SO WILL BE COOLER ALONG THE COAST...HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
70S EXCEPT 65-70 ACROSS COASTAL AREAS...RANGING TO THE LOWER TO MID
80S ACROSS THE CT VALLEY.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REPOSITIONS OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD SO SW
WINDS KICK IN AGAIN BRINGING A RETURN TO MORE HUMID AIR. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT START TO APPROACH OUT OF GREAT LAKES AND WESTERN QUEBEC.
ALSO NOTING INCREASING INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...
WITH K INDICES RISING TO THE LOWER-MID 30S AND TQ VALUES IN THE
UPPER TEENS SO COULD SEE SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION WHICH COULD LAST
INTO SAT NIGHT. BEST LIFT MOVES CLOSER DURING LATE SAT/SAT NIGHT SO
WILL SEE SCT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. A PWAT SWATH OF 1.6 TO
1.75 INCHES PUSHES OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SO MAY SEE SOME HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS WITH ANY CONVECTION.  WILL SEE QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE
EARLY SATURDAY...SO TEMPS WILL REBOUND TO THE 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS
EXCEPT THE LOWER-MID 70S ALONG S COASTAL AREAS.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING...THEN
REACHES THE S COAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECT CHANCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. STILL SOME TIMING ISSUES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF
BUT A BIT BETTER FOR THIS TIMEFRAME. WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE
FRONT...EXPECT SCT PRECIP TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUN NIGHT.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...SOMEWHAT LOWER CONFIDENCE DUE TO TIMING AND
PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES WITH THE FRONT AND WHETHER IT STALLS NEAR THE
S COAST OR OFFSHORE. AT THIS POINT...KEPT CHANCE POPS ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH MIDDAY THEN SHOULD PUSH JUST OFFSHORE BUT
MAY LINGER ACROSS THE ISLANDS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY SUNDAY. MAY
SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS EARLY...THEN INSTABILITY WORKS OFFSHORE BUT
COULD STILL SEE SOME SHOWERS WHILE HIGH PRES MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND.

HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING FOR SOUTHERN AREAS INTO TUESDAY
AS FRONT LOOKS TO LINGER...THEN MAY TRY TO MAKE A RUN BACK NE AS THE
HIGH PUSHES OFF INTO THE GULF OF MAINE.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THROUGH 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. CHANCE OF A TSTM WITH MVFR
VSBYS/CIGS ACROSS CT/PIONEER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. IFR STRATUS
AND FOG WILL INCREASE ACROSS SOUTH COAST LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR IN
AREAS OF FOG ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS. COULD SEE
PASSING SHOWER OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR ALONG THE SOUTH COAST DURING
THE MORNING SHOULD PUSH OFFSHORE. ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE INTERIOR... DROPPING TO MVFR WITHIN ANY -SHRA/-TSRA THAT
DEVELOPS. EXPECT SW WINDS TO GUST UP TO 20-25 KT AT TIMES MAINLY
ACROSS RI/SE MA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO
IFR ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS AS MARITIME FOG AND
STRATUS ROLLS BACK IN.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. COULD SEE CONDITIONS DROP
TO MVFR WITHIN A POP-UP THUNDERSTORM TODAY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR. WILL SEE SCT -SHRA/TSRA WITH LOCAL MVFR-IFR
CONDITIONS. EXPECT AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP DURING THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING PERIOD WITH IFR-LIFR VSBYS.

FRIDAY...VFR. MAY SEE LOCAL MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS EARLY FRI MORNING
ALONG S COAST IN PATCHY FOG...THEN WILL LOWER AGAIN LATE FRI
NIGHT/SAT MORNING TO MVFR-IFR.

SATURDAY...PATCHY FOG EARLY SAT MORNING WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE. SCT SHRA/TSRA SAT THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH LOCAL MVFR-
IFR CONDITIONS. SW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KT MAINLY ALONG THE COAST
SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING.

SUNDAY...SCT SHOWERS TSTMS LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD END
SUN NIGHT. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE UP THROUGH TONIGHT...MAINLY ON THE
OUTER WATERS FOR SEAS AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. SEAS WILL CLIMB TO
5 FEET AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE PERIOD. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
WILL EXPIRE THIS EVENING FOR THE INNER WATERS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.

IN ADDITION...AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ON THE
WATERS TONIGHT...SUBSTANTIALLY REDUCING VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY...EXPECT SW WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KT. SEAS BUILD TO
AROUND 5 FT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS TO THE OUTER WATERS E OF CAPE
COD...BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT THU NIGHT. VSBYS REDUCED IN
AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DENSE OFFSHORE BOTH THU AND FRI NIGHTS.

FRIDAY...LIGHT N-NE WINDS BECOME E DURING THE DAY...THEN SHIFT TO
S-SW FRI NIGHT. EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SW WINDS MAY BRIEFLY GUST TO 25 KT DURING SAT ON
THE EASTERN WATERS...OTHERWISE EXPECT GUSTS UP TO 20 KT SEAS BUILD
AGAIN TO AROUND 5 FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS...WHICH WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE LATE SUN OR SUN NIGHT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/EVT
NEAR TERM...RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...RLG/EVT
MARINE...RLG/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 262014
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
414 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE THROUGH TOMORROW.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY...WITH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY HAVING THE HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
TEMPERATURES HAVE SOARED INTO THE UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
CONNECTICUT...MERRIMACK AND PIONEER VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE...TEMPERATURES VARY FROM THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S.
CLOUD COVER HAS FINALLY DISSIPATED TO THIN CIRRUS WHICH HAS ALLOWED
THE TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB JUST IN THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS.

IN ADDITION...DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED ACROSS NEW
YORK STATE AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...AS WELL AS FAR WESTERN
MASSACHUSETTS.  THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE GREATER INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE IN THESE AREAS.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE POPPED
MAINLY OVER NEW YORK STATE AND PENNSYLVANIA.  AS THESE TRAVEL
EASTWARD INTO MASSACHUSETTS THEY HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING IN INTENSITY
AND AREAL COVERAGE.

WHILE I EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE...A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO COULD MAKE IT INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  IF THEY DO...EXPECT
BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL...SOME THUNDER AND LIGHTNING...AND GUSTY WINDS
AT MOST.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL START TO
BREAK DOWN WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS COULD LEAD TO A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.  MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE WAS DRY BUT THE
GFS HAS BEEN INDICATING NOT JUST SPRINKLES BUT A GOOD TWO TENTHS OF
AN INCH OF PRECIP.  FEEL THIS MAY BE SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK FROM
THE CONVECTION OVER NEW YORK AND PA THIS EVENING.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT SOME CLOUDINESS AND THAT WITH THE MOIST
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO MUCH.
EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 60S.  THAT WARM...MOIST AIR
FLOWING OVER THE COLDER OCEAN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AREAS OF DENSE
FOG OVER THE OCEAN AND BLEEDING ONTO THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND
ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY DAY FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH
TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 80S IN THE CONNECTICUT AND
MERRIMACK VALLEYS WITH MID 80S ELSEWHERE.  EXCEPTION TO THIS IS
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS WHERE BOTH ONSHORE WINDS
AND PERHAPS LINGERING MARINE STRATUS AND FOG WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM CLIMBING.  EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S IN THESE
LOCATIONS.

THIS LOOKS LIKE THE BETTER DAY FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  HOWEVER...THIS DOESN/T APPEAR TO OCCUR
UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  INSTABILITY IS A BIT BETTER THAN
IT WAS TODAY BUT IS STILL SOMEWHAT LACKING AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
LEAVE PLENTY TO BE DESIRED.  THE MAIN FOCUS FOR STORMS WILL BE OVER
NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA WHERE THE BETTER INSTABILITY AND FOCUSING
WILL BE.  THESE STORMS...MUCH LIKE TODAY...WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN PART OF THE CWA TOWARDS THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
WHILE THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE...THE
MOST LIKELY THREATS WITH THESE STORMS ARE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY
WINDS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST
INTO THE EVENING AS WIND SHEAR INCREASES WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
MOVING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  ANOTHER WARM NIGHT IN STORE WITH
LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME...AND VERY SUMMER-LIKE. BERMUDA
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE...WITH A DEEP RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST...
SHOULD MEAN PLENTY OF OPPORTUNITIES FOR WARMER WEATHER THIS WEEK.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY GETS CLOSER TO OUR REGION LATE THIS WEEK AND
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH TIMING VARIES SOME AMONGST THE MODELS. WITH A
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE...AND THIS BOUNDARY BECOMING NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE MID-LEVEL FLOW...AM NOT EXPECTING A CLEAN FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WILL FAVOR THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION TIMING FOR NOW...AND
LEAVE THE WINDOW FOR ANY POTENTIAL FRONT RATHER BROAD.

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAY SEE AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP...WHICH COULD BE
LOCALLY DENSE...ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S AND SE COASTS AS DEWPOINTS
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE.

THURSDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHES OUT BUT STILL SOME INSTABILITY
LINGERING WITH SOUPY AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION. INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS ON WED...AND STRONGEST WINDS ARE
FARTHER NORTH...BUT STILL DECENT BY NEW ENGLAND STANDARDS. SO WE
COULD SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS AS MID LAYER STARTS TO COOL A BIT
LENDING TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY. SOMEWHAT LOWER PWATS...AROUND 1.5
INCHES...BUT STILL ENOUGH WITH THE HIGH DEWPOINTS FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL FROM ANY CONVECTION. EXPECTING AREAS OF FOG TO REDEVELOP
ALONG S COASTAL AREAS THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING.

FRIDAY...WHILE ANOTHER BOUNDARY TENDS TO WEAKEN OVER THE REGION...
NOT A WHOLE LOT OF FORCING OVER OUR REGION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
HOWEVER...STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS. ONE
MORE ROUND OF FOG LOOKS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST MAINLY FROM
COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY SOUTHWARD.

SATURDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON THEIR SOLUTIONS AS ANOTHER
FRONT TRIES TO SLIP SE OUT OF SOUTHERN QUEBEC. LOOKS LIKE MORE
DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS INLAND
AREAS.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT LEND
TO LOW CONFIDENCE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. IN ANY EVENT...HAVE MORE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY AS A FRONT LOOKS TO
SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS THE REGION...THEN STALLING NEAR OR JUST OFF THE
SOUTH COAST MONDAY...WITH LOWER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. MAY SEE DRIER
AIR WORK INTO NORTHERN MA DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THROUGH 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. CHANCE OF A TSTM WITH MVFR
VSBYS/CIGS ACROSS CT/PIONEER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. IFR STRATUS
AND FOG WILL INCREASE ACROSS SOUTH COAST LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR IN
AREAS OF FOG ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS. COULD SEE
PASSING SHOWER OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR ALONG THE SOUTH COAST DURING
THE MORNING SHOULD PUSH OFFSHORE. ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE INTERIOR... DROPPING TO MVFR WITHIN ANY -SHRA/-TSRA THAT
DEVELOPS. EXPECT SW WINDS TO GUST UP TO 20-25 KT AT TIMES MAINLY
ACROSS RI/SE MA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO
IFR ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS AS MARITIME FOG AND
STRATUS ROLLS BACK IN.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. COULD SEE CONDITIONS DROP
TO MVFR WITHIN A POP-UP THUNDERSTORM TODAY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...EXPECT CHANCE FOR -SHRA/TSRA WITH LOCAL
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS. WILL ALSO SEE AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP EACH LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PERIOD WITH IFR-LIFR VSBYS.

SATURDAY...PATCHY FOG EARLY SAT MORNING WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE. SCT SHRA/TSRA SAT THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH LOCAL
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY...S-SW WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25 KT AT TIMES SAT AFTERNOON/
EVENING...MAINLY ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS MAY LINGERING THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD
END SUN NIGHT. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE UP THROUGH TONIGHT...MAINLY ON THE
OUTER WATERS FOR SEAS AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. SEAS WILL CLIMB TO
5 FEET AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE PERIOD. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
WILL EXPIRE THIS EVENING FOR THE INNER WATERS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.

IN ADDITION...AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ON THE WATERS
TONIGHT...SUBSTANTIALLY REDUCING VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

S-SW WINDS REMAIN PERSISTENT WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KT...
MAINLY THU INTO THU NIGHT. SEAS LINGERING AT AROUND 5 FT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS THROUGH THU...THEN SHOULD SUBSIDE. VSBYS
REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DENSE OFFSHORE BOTH THU AND FRI
NIGHTS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/RLG
NEAR TERM...RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/RLG
MARINE...BELK/RLG




000
FXUS61 KOKX 261959
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
359 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS ANCHORED WELL OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH
THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND DISSIPATE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. A
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL THEN IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
DAYTIME HEATING HAS LED TO AROUND 1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE AND ABOUT 500
J/KG OF MLCAPE PER 19Z SPC MESOANALYSIS ACROSS THE FAR NW
INTERIOR. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THIS
REGION. HAVE CONTINUED WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. FORCING IS RATHER WEAK...MAINLY
FROM DIFFERENTIAL HEATING. CONVERGENCE FROM THE SEA BREEZE MOVING
INTO THE INTERIOR MAY ALSO TRIGGER A SHOWER OR A STORM ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND POSSIBLY SOUTHERN CT. LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL
ALLOW ANY ACTIVITY TO DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET. OTHERWISE...WITH
DEEP LAYERED RIDGING OVER THE EAST COAST AND MARITIME INFLUENCE
FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...NO SHOWERS OR STORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

AFTER MIDNIGHT...A WEAK SHORTWAVE MAY MOVE OVERHEAD AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. MUCH OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE
KEEPS US DRY...BUT FEEL IT IS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION
THAT A SHOWER OR STORM DEVELOPS WITH THIS SHORTWAVE AND WEAK
ELEVATED INSTABILITY. HAVE CAPPED POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS. THE GFS IS THE WETTEST MODEL DURING THIS TIMEFRAME AND
IS LIKELY OVERDOING QPF.

PATCHY FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE TOWARDS MORNING. THE FOG MAY BECOME
LOCALLY DENSE NEAR THE COAST...BUT IT REMAINS ON UNCERTAIN HOW
WIDESPREAD THIS WOULD END UP BEING. THERE IS A GREATER LIKELIHOOD FOR
STRATUS TO DEVELOP WITH PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW...ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE COAST.

LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR METEOROLOGICAL ENHANCEMENT OF RIP
CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION INCREASES ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE FURTHER OFFSHORE. THE DEVELOPMENT OF A PRE-
FRONTAL/THERMAL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A SOURCE FOR LIFT IN THE
AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CITY. CAPE VALUES IN THE
MODELS DIFFER IN THE AFTERNOON AND THIS IS DUE TO HOW MUCH HEATING
THEY FORECAST. THE NAM HAS MUCH HIGHER SBCAPE WITH ITS WARMER
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN COMBINATION WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID
60S. FEEL CAPE VALUES MAY BE A BIT TOO HIGH IN THE NAM...BUT IT
HAS THE RIGHT IDEA WITH ITS WARMER TEMPERATURES LEADING TO HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY. ANY MORNING CLOUDS WILL BREAK LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON TO ALLOW FOR ENOUGH SUNSHINE TO REALIZE THIS
HIGHER INSTABILITY.

SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND LINGER INTO
THE AFTERNOON WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND. SPC HAS THE INTERIOR OF NE
NJ AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. AN ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT
HERE...BUT FEEL STORMS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN ANY STORM WITH URBANIZED MINOR
FLOODING A POSSIBILITY. CHANCE POPS CONTINUE FOR MAINLY WEST OF
THE HUDSON RIVER.

THE QUESTION FOR WEDNESDAY EVENING IS HOW FAR EAST THE CONVECTION
GETS. THE MARINE INFLUENCE AND PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
MOST LIKELY WEAKEN THE STORMS CONSIDERABLY AS THEY MOVE NEAR THE
HUDSON RIVER. NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FORECAST IN THE
EVENING EAST OF THE HUDSON. POPS DO INCREASE TO LOW CHANCE FOR
EASTERN ZONES OVERNIGHT AS THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH REMAINS NEARBY
AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY COULD PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S
FROM NYC NORTH AND WEST AND MAINLY MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S ACROSS
SOUTHERN CT AND LONG ISLAND. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL EXPAND
WESTWARD BACK INTO THE MS RIVER VALLEY AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY OVER THE
GREAT LAKES DAMPENS AND LIFTS TO THE NE THU. THIS WILL ALLOW THE
SUBTROP RIDGE TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...PUMPING IN
WARM...HUMID AIR ACROSS THE REGION.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THU BEFORE
DISSIPATING OFFSHORE ON FRI. THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THU EVE...BUT DRY AIR LOOKS TO BE A LIMITING
FACTOR. HEIGHTS BUILD ALOFT FRI INTO SAT WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE
CAPPING THE AIRMASS. ANY CONVECTION WILL BE ISOLATED...DIURNAL IN
NATURE...AND LIKELY WELL INLAND.

FORECAST DILEMMA REMAINS THE TIMING OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN. THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS STILL REMAINS THE
FASTER...AND MORE AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION. HOWEVER...DEFERRED TO THE
SLOWER ECMWF WHICH HAS MAINTAINED THE BEST RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY.
THE ECMWF DOES NOT BRING THE FRONT THROUGH UNTIL SUN AFT AND THEN
KEEPS IT IN CLOSE PROXIMITY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED RAINFALL EVENT LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY WARM THROUGH SAT...THEN COOLS
DOWN SUN INTO MON BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PERSISTENT OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH VFR
THROUGH TONIGHT. ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE KSWF WHERE THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM BEFORE EVENING BUT
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND EXACT LOCATION IS PRETTY LOW.

THE CONTINUED S-SW FLOW OF 10-15 KT GUSTING TO 20-25 KT WILL
LOWER THIS EVENING AND WEDNESDAY. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH WITH THE
CATEGORY FORECAST AND MODERATE WITH WINDS. HOWEVER...THE
CONFIDENCE FOR CATEGORY LOWERS LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THERE
WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS/FOG AS WELL AS SOME SHOWERS.

THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING WHERE THE LOWERING OF CATEGORY
COULD START/END 2-3 HRS DIFFERENT FROM FORECAST AND THE CATEGORY
ITSELF COULD BE 1-2 CATEGORIES DIFFERENT FROM OBSERVED AT TIMES.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY BE A FEW KTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY BE A FEW KTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY BE A FEW KTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY BE A FEW KTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY BE A FEW KTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY BE A FEW KTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING SHRA/TSTM...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE NYC METRO
TERMINALS. SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT.
.THURSDAY-SATURDAY...THIS IS A CHANCE OF LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING MVFR OR LOWER STRATUS AND/OR FOG. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHRA/TSTM THU AND SAT. WIND GUSTS 15-20
KT THU AFTN AND SAT AFTN.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WITH CHANCE OF
SHRA/TSTM.
.SUNDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WITH CHANCE OF SHRA/ISOLATED
TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SCA ON THE OCEAN WATERS HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KT ARE LIKELY INTO THIS EVENING AND
THEN AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH PROLONGED
SOUTHERLY FLOW. SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD TO 5 FT TONIGHT AND REMAIN
NEAR 5 FT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE SCA ON THE NY HARBOR AND SOUTH SHORE BAYS CONTINUES THROUGH
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS MAY BE ABLE TO BE CANCELLED EARLIER IF THE
STRONGER WINDS DO NOT PAN OUT THIS EVENING. WINDS MAY ALSO APPROACH
SCA LEVELS ON THE NY HARBOR AND SOUTH SHORE BAYS AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF DENSE FOG TO FORM ON THE
WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW ON THIS AND FOR NOW HAVE CONTINUED TO FORECAST PATCHY FOG.

MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN WATERS POSSIBLE THU-SUN WITH A
MODERATE SLY FLOW. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF OFFSHORE WINDS
THU NIGHT BEHIND A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GENERALLY LESS THAN TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF BASIN AVERAGE
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER ANY STRONGER
CONVECTION THAT FORMS...ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS ANY TRAINING OF
STORMS...COULD LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AND/OR POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED RAINFALL EVENT LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ338-345.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/DW
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS/DW
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...DS/DW
HYDROLOGY...DS/DW




000
FXUS61 KOKX 261959
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
359 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS ANCHORED WELL OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH
THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND DISSIPATE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. A
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL THEN IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
DAYTIME HEATING HAS LED TO AROUND 1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE AND ABOUT 500
J/KG OF MLCAPE PER 19Z SPC MESOANALYSIS ACROSS THE FAR NW
INTERIOR. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THIS
REGION. HAVE CONTINUED WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. FORCING IS RATHER WEAK...MAINLY
FROM DIFFERENTIAL HEATING. CONVERGENCE FROM THE SEA BREEZE MOVING
INTO THE INTERIOR MAY ALSO TRIGGER A SHOWER OR A STORM ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND POSSIBLY SOUTHERN CT. LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL
ALLOW ANY ACTIVITY TO DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET. OTHERWISE...WITH
DEEP LAYERED RIDGING OVER THE EAST COAST AND MARITIME INFLUENCE
FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...NO SHOWERS OR STORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

AFTER MIDNIGHT...A WEAK SHORTWAVE MAY MOVE OVERHEAD AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. MUCH OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE
KEEPS US DRY...BUT FEEL IT IS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION
THAT A SHOWER OR STORM DEVELOPS WITH THIS SHORTWAVE AND WEAK
ELEVATED INSTABILITY. HAVE CAPPED POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS. THE GFS IS THE WETTEST MODEL DURING THIS TIMEFRAME AND
IS LIKELY OVERDOING QPF.

PATCHY FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE TOWARDS MORNING. THE FOG MAY BECOME
LOCALLY DENSE NEAR THE COAST...BUT IT REMAINS ON UNCERTAIN HOW
WIDESPREAD THIS WOULD END UP BEING. THERE IS A GREATER LIKELIHOOD FOR
STRATUS TO DEVELOP WITH PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW...ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE COAST.

LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR METEOROLOGICAL ENHANCEMENT OF RIP
CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION INCREASES ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE FURTHER OFFSHORE. THE DEVELOPMENT OF A PRE-
FRONTAL/THERMAL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A SOURCE FOR LIFT IN THE
AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CITY. CAPE VALUES IN THE
MODELS DIFFER IN THE AFTERNOON AND THIS IS DUE TO HOW MUCH HEATING
THEY FORECAST. THE NAM HAS MUCH HIGHER SBCAPE WITH ITS WARMER
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN COMBINATION WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID
60S. FEEL CAPE VALUES MAY BE A BIT TOO HIGH IN THE NAM...BUT IT
HAS THE RIGHT IDEA WITH ITS WARMER TEMPERATURES LEADING TO HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY. ANY MORNING CLOUDS WILL BREAK LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON TO ALLOW FOR ENOUGH SUNSHINE TO REALIZE THIS
HIGHER INSTABILITY.

SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND LINGER INTO
THE AFTERNOON WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND. SPC HAS THE INTERIOR OF NE
NJ AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. AN ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT
HERE...BUT FEEL STORMS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN ANY STORM WITH URBANIZED MINOR
FLOODING A POSSIBILITY. CHANCE POPS CONTINUE FOR MAINLY WEST OF
THE HUDSON RIVER.

THE QUESTION FOR WEDNESDAY EVENING IS HOW FAR EAST THE CONVECTION
GETS. THE MARINE INFLUENCE AND PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
MOST LIKELY WEAKEN THE STORMS CONSIDERABLY AS THEY MOVE NEAR THE
HUDSON RIVER. NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FORECAST IN THE
EVENING EAST OF THE HUDSON. POPS DO INCREASE TO LOW CHANCE FOR
EASTERN ZONES OVERNIGHT AS THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH REMAINS NEARBY
AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY COULD PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S
FROM NYC NORTH AND WEST AND MAINLY MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S ACROSS
SOUTHERN CT AND LONG ISLAND. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL EXPAND
WESTWARD BACK INTO THE MS RIVER VALLEY AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY OVER THE
GREAT LAKES DAMPENS AND LIFTS TO THE NE THU. THIS WILL ALLOW THE
SUBTROP RIDGE TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...PUMPING IN
WARM...HUMID AIR ACROSS THE REGION.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THU BEFORE
DISSIPATING OFFSHORE ON FRI. THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THU EVE...BUT DRY AIR LOOKS TO BE A LIMITING
FACTOR. HEIGHTS BUILD ALOFT FRI INTO SAT WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE
CAPPING THE AIRMASS. ANY CONVECTION WILL BE ISOLATED...DIURNAL IN
NATURE...AND LIKELY WELL INLAND.

FORECAST DILEMMA REMAINS THE TIMING OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN. THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS STILL REMAINS THE
FASTER...AND MORE AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION. HOWEVER...DEFERRED TO THE
SLOWER ECMWF WHICH HAS MAINTAINED THE BEST RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY.
THE ECMWF DOES NOT BRING THE FRONT THROUGH UNTIL SUN AFT AND THEN
KEEPS IT IN CLOSE PROXIMITY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED RAINFALL EVENT LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY WARM THROUGH SAT...THEN COOLS
DOWN SUN INTO MON BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PERSISTENT OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH VFR
THROUGH TONIGHT. ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE KSWF WHERE THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM BEFORE EVENING BUT
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND EXACT LOCATION IS PRETTY LOW.

THE CONTINUED S-SW FLOW OF 10-15 KT GUSTING TO 20-25 KT WILL
LOWER THIS EVENING AND WEDNESDAY. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH WITH THE
CATEGORY FORECAST AND MODERATE WITH WINDS. HOWEVER...THE
CONFIDENCE FOR CATEGORY LOWERS LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THERE
WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS/FOG AS WELL AS SOME SHOWERS.

THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING WHERE THE LOWERING OF CATEGORY
COULD START/END 2-3 HRS DIFFERENT FROM FORECAST AND THE CATEGORY
ITSELF COULD BE 1-2 CATEGORIES DIFFERENT FROM OBSERVED AT TIMES.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY BE A FEW KTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY BE A FEW KTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY BE A FEW KTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY BE A FEW KTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY BE A FEW KTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY BE A FEW KTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING SHRA/TSTM...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE NYC METRO
TERMINALS. SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT.
.THURSDAY-SATURDAY...THIS IS A CHANCE OF LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING MVFR OR LOWER STRATUS AND/OR FOG. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHRA/TSTM THU AND SAT. WIND GUSTS 15-20
KT THU AFTN AND SAT AFTN.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WITH CHANCE OF
SHRA/TSTM.
.SUNDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WITH CHANCE OF SHRA/ISOLATED
TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SCA ON THE OCEAN WATERS HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KT ARE LIKELY INTO THIS EVENING AND
THEN AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH PROLONGED
SOUTHERLY FLOW. SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD TO 5 FT TONIGHT AND REMAIN
NEAR 5 FT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE SCA ON THE NY HARBOR AND SOUTH SHORE BAYS CONTINUES THROUGH
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS MAY BE ABLE TO BE CANCELLED EARLIER IF THE
STRONGER WINDS DO NOT PAN OUT THIS EVENING. WINDS MAY ALSO APPROACH
SCA LEVELS ON THE NY HARBOR AND SOUTH SHORE BAYS AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF DENSE FOG TO FORM ON THE
WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW ON THIS AND FOR NOW HAVE CONTINUED TO FORECAST PATCHY FOG.

MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN WATERS POSSIBLE THU-SUN WITH A
MODERATE SLY FLOW. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF OFFSHORE WINDS
THU NIGHT BEHIND A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GENERALLY LESS THAN TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF BASIN AVERAGE
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER ANY STRONGER
CONVECTION THAT FORMS...ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS ANY TRAINING OF
STORMS...COULD LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AND/OR POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED RAINFALL EVENT LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ338-345.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/DW
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS/DW
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...DS/DW
HYDROLOGY...DS/DW




000
FXUS61 KOKX 261959
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
359 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS ANCHORED WELL OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH
THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND DISSIPATE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. A
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL THEN IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
DAYTIME HEATING HAS LED TO AROUND 1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE AND ABOUT 500
J/KG OF MLCAPE PER 19Z SPC MESOANALYSIS ACROSS THE FAR NW
INTERIOR. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THIS
REGION. HAVE CONTINUED WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. FORCING IS RATHER WEAK...MAINLY
FROM DIFFERENTIAL HEATING. CONVERGENCE FROM THE SEA BREEZE MOVING
INTO THE INTERIOR MAY ALSO TRIGGER A SHOWER OR A STORM ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND POSSIBLY SOUTHERN CT. LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL
ALLOW ANY ACTIVITY TO DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET. OTHERWISE...WITH
DEEP LAYERED RIDGING OVER THE EAST COAST AND MARITIME INFLUENCE
FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...NO SHOWERS OR STORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

AFTER MIDNIGHT...A WEAK SHORTWAVE MAY MOVE OVERHEAD AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. MUCH OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE
KEEPS US DRY...BUT FEEL IT IS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION
THAT A SHOWER OR STORM DEVELOPS WITH THIS SHORTWAVE AND WEAK
ELEVATED INSTABILITY. HAVE CAPPED POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS. THE GFS IS THE WETTEST MODEL DURING THIS TIMEFRAME AND
IS LIKELY OVERDOING QPF.

PATCHY FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE TOWARDS MORNING. THE FOG MAY BECOME
LOCALLY DENSE NEAR THE COAST...BUT IT REMAINS ON UNCERTAIN HOW
WIDESPREAD THIS WOULD END UP BEING. THERE IS A GREATER LIKELIHOOD FOR
STRATUS TO DEVELOP WITH PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW...ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE COAST.

LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR METEOROLOGICAL ENHANCEMENT OF RIP
CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION INCREASES ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE FURTHER OFFSHORE. THE DEVELOPMENT OF A PRE-
FRONTAL/THERMAL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A SOURCE FOR LIFT IN THE
AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CITY. CAPE VALUES IN THE
MODELS DIFFER IN THE AFTERNOON AND THIS IS DUE TO HOW MUCH HEATING
THEY FORECAST. THE NAM HAS MUCH HIGHER SBCAPE WITH ITS WARMER
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN COMBINATION WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID
60S. FEEL CAPE VALUES MAY BE A BIT TOO HIGH IN THE NAM...BUT IT
HAS THE RIGHT IDEA WITH ITS WARMER TEMPERATURES LEADING TO HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY. ANY MORNING CLOUDS WILL BREAK LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON TO ALLOW FOR ENOUGH SUNSHINE TO REALIZE THIS
HIGHER INSTABILITY.

SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND LINGER INTO
THE AFTERNOON WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND. SPC HAS THE INTERIOR OF NE
NJ AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. AN ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT
HERE...BUT FEEL STORMS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN ANY STORM WITH URBANIZED MINOR
FLOODING A POSSIBILITY. CHANCE POPS CONTINUE FOR MAINLY WEST OF
THE HUDSON RIVER.

THE QUESTION FOR WEDNESDAY EVENING IS HOW FAR EAST THE CONVECTION
GETS. THE MARINE INFLUENCE AND PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
MOST LIKELY WEAKEN THE STORMS CONSIDERABLY AS THEY MOVE NEAR THE
HUDSON RIVER. NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FORECAST IN THE
EVENING EAST OF THE HUDSON. POPS DO INCREASE TO LOW CHANCE FOR
EASTERN ZONES OVERNIGHT AS THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH REMAINS NEARBY
AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY COULD PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S
FROM NYC NORTH AND WEST AND MAINLY MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S ACROSS
SOUTHERN CT AND LONG ISLAND. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL EXPAND
WESTWARD BACK INTO THE MS RIVER VALLEY AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY OVER THE
GREAT LAKES DAMPENS AND LIFTS TO THE NE THU. THIS WILL ALLOW THE
SUBTROP RIDGE TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...PUMPING IN
WARM...HUMID AIR ACROSS THE REGION.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THU BEFORE
DISSIPATING OFFSHORE ON FRI. THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THU EVE...BUT DRY AIR LOOKS TO BE A LIMITING
FACTOR. HEIGHTS BUILD ALOFT FRI INTO SAT WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE
CAPPING THE AIRMASS. ANY CONVECTION WILL BE ISOLATED...DIURNAL IN
NATURE...AND LIKELY WELL INLAND.

FORECAST DILEMMA REMAINS THE TIMING OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN. THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS STILL REMAINS THE
FASTER...AND MORE AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION. HOWEVER...DEFERRED TO THE
SLOWER ECMWF WHICH HAS MAINTAINED THE BEST RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY.
THE ECMWF DOES NOT BRING THE FRONT THROUGH UNTIL SUN AFT AND THEN
KEEPS IT IN CLOSE PROXIMITY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED RAINFALL EVENT LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY WARM THROUGH SAT...THEN COOLS
DOWN SUN INTO MON BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PERSISTENT OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH VFR
THROUGH TONIGHT. ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE KSWF WHERE THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM BEFORE EVENING BUT
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND EXACT LOCATION IS PRETTY LOW.

THE CONTINUED S-SW FLOW OF 10-15 KT GUSTING TO 20-25 KT WILL
LOWER THIS EVENING AND WEDNESDAY. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH WITH THE
CATEGORY FORECAST AND MODERATE WITH WINDS. HOWEVER...THE
CONFIDENCE FOR CATEGORY LOWERS LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THERE
WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS/FOG AS WELL AS SOME SHOWERS.

THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING WHERE THE LOWERING OF CATEGORY
COULD START/END 2-3 HRS DIFFERENT FROM FORECAST AND THE CATEGORY
ITSELF COULD BE 1-2 CATEGORIES DIFFERENT FROM OBSERVED AT TIMES.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY BE A FEW KTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY BE A FEW KTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY BE A FEW KTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY BE A FEW KTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY BE A FEW KTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY BE A FEW KTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING SHRA/TSTM...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE NYC METRO
TERMINALS. SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT.
.THURSDAY-SATURDAY...THIS IS A CHANCE OF LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING MVFR OR LOWER STRATUS AND/OR FOG. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHRA/TSTM THU AND SAT. WIND GUSTS 15-20
KT THU AFTN AND SAT AFTN.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WITH CHANCE OF
SHRA/TSTM.
.SUNDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WITH CHANCE OF SHRA/ISOLATED
TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SCA ON THE OCEAN WATERS HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KT ARE LIKELY INTO THIS EVENING AND
THEN AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH PROLONGED
SOUTHERLY FLOW. SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD TO 5 FT TONIGHT AND REMAIN
NEAR 5 FT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE SCA ON THE NY HARBOR AND SOUTH SHORE BAYS CONTINUES THROUGH
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS MAY BE ABLE TO BE CANCELLED EARLIER IF THE
STRONGER WINDS DO NOT PAN OUT THIS EVENING. WINDS MAY ALSO APPROACH
SCA LEVELS ON THE NY HARBOR AND SOUTH SHORE BAYS AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF DENSE FOG TO FORM ON THE
WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW ON THIS AND FOR NOW HAVE CONTINUED TO FORECAST PATCHY FOG.

MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN WATERS POSSIBLE THU-SUN WITH A
MODERATE SLY FLOW. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF OFFSHORE WINDS
THU NIGHT BEHIND A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GENERALLY LESS THAN TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF BASIN AVERAGE
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER ANY STRONGER
CONVECTION THAT FORMS...ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS ANY TRAINING OF
STORMS...COULD LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AND/OR POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED RAINFALL EVENT LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ338-345.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/DW
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS/DW
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...DS/DW
HYDROLOGY...DS/DW




000
FXUS61 KOKX 261959
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
359 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS ANCHORED WELL OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH
THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND DISSIPATE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. A
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL THEN IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
DAYTIME HEATING HAS LED TO AROUND 1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE AND ABOUT 500
J/KG OF MLCAPE PER 19Z SPC MESOANALYSIS ACROSS THE FAR NW
INTERIOR. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THIS
REGION. HAVE CONTINUED WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. FORCING IS RATHER WEAK...MAINLY
FROM DIFFERENTIAL HEATING. CONVERGENCE FROM THE SEA BREEZE MOVING
INTO THE INTERIOR MAY ALSO TRIGGER A SHOWER OR A STORM ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND POSSIBLY SOUTHERN CT. LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL
ALLOW ANY ACTIVITY TO DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET. OTHERWISE...WITH
DEEP LAYERED RIDGING OVER THE EAST COAST AND MARITIME INFLUENCE
FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...NO SHOWERS OR STORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

AFTER MIDNIGHT...A WEAK SHORTWAVE MAY MOVE OVERHEAD AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. MUCH OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE
KEEPS US DRY...BUT FEEL IT IS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION
THAT A SHOWER OR STORM DEVELOPS WITH THIS SHORTWAVE AND WEAK
ELEVATED INSTABILITY. HAVE CAPPED POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS. THE GFS IS THE WETTEST MODEL DURING THIS TIMEFRAME AND
IS LIKELY OVERDOING QPF.

PATCHY FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE TOWARDS MORNING. THE FOG MAY BECOME
LOCALLY DENSE NEAR THE COAST...BUT IT REMAINS ON UNCERTAIN HOW
WIDESPREAD THIS WOULD END UP BEING. THERE IS A GREATER LIKELIHOOD FOR
STRATUS TO DEVELOP WITH PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW...ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE COAST.

LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR METEOROLOGICAL ENHANCEMENT OF RIP
CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION INCREASES ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE FURTHER OFFSHORE. THE DEVELOPMENT OF A PRE-
FRONTAL/THERMAL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A SOURCE FOR LIFT IN THE
AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CITY. CAPE VALUES IN THE
MODELS DIFFER IN THE AFTERNOON AND THIS IS DUE TO HOW MUCH HEATING
THEY FORECAST. THE NAM HAS MUCH HIGHER SBCAPE WITH ITS WARMER
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN COMBINATION WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID
60S. FEEL CAPE VALUES MAY BE A BIT TOO HIGH IN THE NAM...BUT IT
HAS THE RIGHT IDEA WITH ITS WARMER TEMPERATURES LEADING TO HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY. ANY MORNING CLOUDS WILL BREAK LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON TO ALLOW FOR ENOUGH SUNSHINE TO REALIZE THIS
HIGHER INSTABILITY.

SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND LINGER INTO
THE AFTERNOON WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND. SPC HAS THE INTERIOR OF NE
NJ AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. AN ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT
HERE...BUT FEEL STORMS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN ANY STORM WITH URBANIZED MINOR
FLOODING A POSSIBILITY. CHANCE POPS CONTINUE FOR MAINLY WEST OF
THE HUDSON RIVER.

THE QUESTION FOR WEDNESDAY EVENING IS HOW FAR EAST THE CONVECTION
GETS. THE MARINE INFLUENCE AND PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
MOST LIKELY WEAKEN THE STORMS CONSIDERABLY AS THEY MOVE NEAR THE
HUDSON RIVER. NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FORECAST IN THE
EVENING EAST OF THE HUDSON. POPS DO INCREASE TO LOW CHANCE FOR
EASTERN ZONES OVERNIGHT AS THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH REMAINS NEARBY
AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY COULD PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S
FROM NYC NORTH AND WEST AND MAINLY MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S ACROSS
SOUTHERN CT AND LONG ISLAND. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL EXPAND
WESTWARD BACK INTO THE MS RIVER VALLEY AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY OVER THE
GREAT LAKES DAMPENS AND LIFTS TO THE NE THU. THIS WILL ALLOW THE
SUBTROP RIDGE TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...PUMPING IN
WARM...HUMID AIR ACROSS THE REGION.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THU BEFORE
DISSIPATING OFFSHORE ON FRI. THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THU EVE...BUT DRY AIR LOOKS TO BE A LIMITING
FACTOR. HEIGHTS BUILD ALOFT FRI INTO SAT WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE
CAPPING THE AIRMASS. ANY CONVECTION WILL BE ISOLATED...DIURNAL IN
NATURE...AND LIKELY WELL INLAND.

FORECAST DILEMMA REMAINS THE TIMING OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN. THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS STILL REMAINS THE
FASTER...AND MORE AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION. HOWEVER...DEFERRED TO THE
SLOWER ECMWF WHICH HAS MAINTAINED THE BEST RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY.
THE ECMWF DOES NOT BRING THE FRONT THROUGH UNTIL SUN AFT AND THEN
KEEPS IT IN CLOSE PROXIMITY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED RAINFALL EVENT LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY WARM THROUGH SAT...THEN COOLS
DOWN SUN INTO MON BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PERSISTENT OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH VFR
THROUGH TONIGHT. ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE KSWF WHERE THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM BEFORE EVENING BUT
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND EXACT LOCATION IS PRETTY LOW.

THE CONTINUED S-SW FLOW OF 10-15 KT GUSTING TO 20-25 KT WILL
LOWER THIS EVENING AND WEDNESDAY. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH WITH THE
CATEGORY FORECAST AND MODERATE WITH WINDS. HOWEVER...THE
CONFIDENCE FOR CATEGORY LOWERS LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THERE
WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS/FOG AS WELL AS SOME SHOWERS.

THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING WHERE THE LOWERING OF CATEGORY
COULD START/END 2-3 HRS DIFFERENT FROM FORECAST AND THE CATEGORY
ITSELF COULD BE 1-2 CATEGORIES DIFFERENT FROM OBSERVED AT TIMES.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY BE A FEW KTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY BE A FEW KTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY BE A FEW KTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY BE A FEW KTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY BE A FEW KTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY BE A FEW KTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING SHRA/TSTM...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE NYC METRO
TERMINALS. SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT.
.THURSDAY-SATURDAY...THIS IS A CHANCE OF LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING MVFR OR LOWER STRATUS AND/OR FOG. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHRA/TSTM THU AND SAT. WIND GUSTS 15-20
KT THU AFTN AND SAT AFTN.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WITH CHANCE OF
SHRA/TSTM.
.SUNDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WITH CHANCE OF SHRA/ISOLATED
TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SCA ON THE OCEAN WATERS HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KT ARE LIKELY INTO THIS EVENING AND
THEN AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH PROLONGED
SOUTHERLY FLOW. SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD TO 5 FT TONIGHT AND REMAIN
NEAR 5 FT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE SCA ON THE NY HARBOR AND SOUTH SHORE BAYS CONTINUES THROUGH
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS MAY BE ABLE TO BE CANCELLED EARLIER IF THE
STRONGER WINDS DO NOT PAN OUT THIS EVENING. WINDS MAY ALSO APPROACH
SCA LEVELS ON THE NY HARBOR AND SOUTH SHORE BAYS AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF DENSE FOG TO FORM ON THE
WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW ON THIS AND FOR NOW HAVE CONTINUED TO FORECAST PATCHY FOG.

MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN WATERS POSSIBLE THU-SUN WITH A
MODERATE SLY FLOW. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF OFFSHORE WINDS
THU NIGHT BEHIND A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GENERALLY LESS THAN TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF BASIN AVERAGE
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER ANY STRONGER
CONVECTION THAT FORMS...ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS ANY TRAINING OF
STORMS...COULD LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AND/OR POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED RAINFALL EVENT LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ338-345.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/DW
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS/DW
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...DS/DW
HYDROLOGY...DS/DW




000
FXUS61 KALY 261957
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
357 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH AN INCREASING THREAT
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY
CONTAIN STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL ON WEDNESDAY. MORE
TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS RETURN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FOR THE LAST WEEKEND OF MAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT...REGIONAL RADAR REVEALS A SCT-BKN LINE OF
CONVECTION ACROSS THE CATSKILLS...SOUTHERN TIER OF NY INTO
NORTHERN PA. MUCH WEAKER REFLECTIVITIES EXIST ACROSS THE I90
CORRIDOR. THIS ACTIVITY IS ALONG A MID LEVEL THETA-E BOUNDARY AND
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS. H2O VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A COUPLE OF WEAK WAVES
TRANSVERSING THE NEAR ZONAL FLOW ACROSS UPSTATE NY. THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...THIS CONVECTION
SHOULD DIMINISH YET THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS LINGERS OVERNIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF THE NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET MAGNITUDES INCREASING
EMBEDDED WITH A DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILES AND HIGHER THETA-E AIR TO
WARRANT THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. A PT-
MOCLOUDY SKY AND HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN A RATHER
WARM/MUGGY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION WITH MAINLY 60S EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR MOST OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED
MOST OF OUR REGION WITHIN THE SLIGHT RISK CATEGORY ON WEDNESDAY.
THE COMBINATION OF A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE WITH PWATS CLIMBING IN
EXCESS OF 1.75 INCHES...SURFACE DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S...SOME
GRADUAL HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS FOR
ENHANCING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO INTERACT WITH INCREASING
BUOYANCY AS SBCAPES CLIMB TOWARD 2K J/KG...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL IS ON THE INCREASE. A DEPARTING UPPER JET WITH ENTRANCE
REGION DYNAMICS AND SHEAR PROFILES INCREASING TO AROUND 30KTS
SHOULD RESULT IN SOME ORGANIZATION. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW
MUCH INSOLATION WE WILL RECEIVE AS THE NCEP MODEL SUITE DOES
SUGGEST AMPLE MOISTURE...ALTHOUGH...MODELS DO TEND TO
OVERESTIMATE. SO WE WILL ADD SOME ENHANCED WORDING TO THE
FORECAST/GRIDS AT THIS TIME. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...MOS GUIDANCE IS
WARMER ON THE MET MOS THAN THE MAV MOS...WE WILL FAVOR THE WARMER
SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

THE FRONTAL AXIS IS PROGGED TO BE OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING
THE EVENING WITH A DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE
CONVECTION AT THAT TIME. HOWEVER...THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND
MAIN UPPER TROUGH HAS YET TO APPROACH SO WE WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS
IN THE GRIDS OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY. IN
FACT...TRENDS IN THE 12Z GUIDANCE ARE A LITTLE FASTER WITH THESE
FEATURES WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. AS FOR THURSDAY HIGHS...AN ENSEMBLE
APPROACH OF THE H850 THERMAL FIELDS SUGGEST COLD ADVECTION WILL BE
OCCURRING THROUGH THE DAY WITH LESS THAN 10C FOR THE DACKS. WE
WILL THEREFORE KEEP TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 65-70F FOR THESE AREAS
AND KEEP 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN MAGNITUDES AS
GUSTS WELL INTO THE 20KTS ARE EXPECTED.

SUBSIDENCE INCREASES QUICKLY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH RISING SURFACE
PRESSURES AND A MUCH DRIER ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN ADVECTING INTO THE
REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE CLEARING SKIES...DIMINISHING WINDS AND
A MORE COMFORTABLE NIGHT AS LOWS DIP BACK INTO THE 50S FOR MOST OF
THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRI-SAT SHOULD TREND BACK TO NEAR...OR
POSSIBLY EVEN A BIT BELOW NORMAL BY SUN-TUE...AS THE EAST COAST
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEAMPLIFIES WITH THE APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
FROM SOUTHERN CANADA. AS IT DEAMPLIFIES...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION SOMETIME LATE SAT OR EARLY SUN. THIS SHOULD BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. DEPENDING ON ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE INCOMING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES/SE CANADA...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE COLD
FRONT SLOWS DOWN AND/OR A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG IT AND TRACKS SOUTH OF
THE REGION. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...SHOWERS OR EVEN A PERIOD OF STEADY
RAIN COULD LINGER IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR SUN INTO EARLY
MON...ESP ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.

SO...INITIALLY EXPECT DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY AS UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE ONCE AGAIN. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE
MODERATE...SO DESPITE MAX TEMPS REACHING THE MID/UPPER 80S IN
PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...APPARENT TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY
REMAIN BELOW 90. FRI NT/SAT AM SHOULD REMAIN DRY...BUT WARM...WITH
MIN TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 60S FOR MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND 55-60 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

FOR SAT-MON...THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT SHOULD APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATER SAT...AND SLOWLY PRESS SOUTH AND EAST SAT NT INTO
EARLY SUN. WILL INDICATE HIGH CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS FOR
SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR SAT AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...GRADUALLY TAPERING
DOWNWARD FROM NW TO SE ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST THE FRONT REACHES...AND WHETHER A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO
LOW CHC FOR MOST CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS INTO MON. MAX TEMPS
SHOULD BE RATHER WARM SAT...WITH TEMPS REACHING 85-90 IN VALLEYS AND
LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. DEWPOINTS SHOULD RISE INTO
THE LOWER 60S...SO APPARENT TEMPS SHOULD BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
ACTUAL HIGH TEMPS OF 85-90. SAT NT/SUN AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
50S TO LOWER 60S...THEN EXPECT COOLER MAX TEMPS FOR SUN INTO
MON...WITH MAXES MAINLY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S SUN...AND MAINLY 60S
FOR MON. SUN NT/MON AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

MON NT-TUE...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACHES. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO LOW
CHC POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. MON
NT/TUE AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S...WITH TUE
MAX TEMPS REACHING 70-75 FOR MOST VALLEYS...AND 65-70 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL MAINTAIN A WARM
AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING...ESP FOR KPOU/KALB AND KPSF.

A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THROUGH SUNSET...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. HOWEVER...AS
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 20Z-22Z/TUE...AND MAY LINGER UNTIL
ROUGHLY 01Z-03Z/WED. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE AT KALB/KPOU AND KPSF.
THERE COULD BE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITHIN ANY
HEAVIER DOWNPOURS.

AFTER SUNSET...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD WEAKEN.
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAINFALL OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...THERE COULD BE AREAS OF MVFR OR BORDERLINE IFR CIGS/VSBYS
LATER TONIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT KPSF.

ON WEDNESDAY...AFTER ANY PATCHY LOW CLOUDS/FOG BURN OFF...EXPECT
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z/WED. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP AFTER 16Z/WED...WITH INCREASING CHANCES THEREAFTER.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 8-12 KT...WITH
GUSTS OF 15-22 KT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AT MAINLY 5-10 KT. ON WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL BE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 8-12 KT...WITH GUSTS OF 15-22 KT
ONCE AGAIN BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE STRONGER...AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION IN AND NEAR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WED TO WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

FRIDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS IN THE 50S.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...MAINLY ON WEDNESDAY.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED MODERATE
DROUGHT AT THIS TIME.

WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE BETTER AND MORE
WIDESPREAD CHANCES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INT0 THE EVENING.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.75+ INCHES ARE EXPECTED SO STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY




000
FXUS61 KALY 261957
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
357 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH AN INCREASING THREAT
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY
CONTAIN STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL ON WEDNESDAY. MORE
TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS RETURN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FOR THE LAST WEEKEND OF MAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT...REGIONAL RADAR REVEALS A SCT-BKN LINE OF
CONVECTION ACROSS THE CATSKILLS...SOUTHERN TIER OF NY INTO
NORTHERN PA. MUCH WEAKER REFLECTIVITIES EXIST ACROSS THE I90
CORRIDOR. THIS ACTIVITY IS ALONG A MID LEVEL THETA-E BOUNDARY AND
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS. H2O VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A COUPLE OF WEAK WAVES
TRANSVERSING THE NEAR ZONAL FLOW ACROSS UPSTATE NY. THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...THIS CONVECTION
SHOULD DIMINISH YET THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS LINGERS OVERNIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF THE NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET MAGNITUDES INCREASING
EMBEDDED WITH A DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILES AND HIGHER THETA-E AIR TO
WARRANT THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. A PT-
MOCLOUDY SKY AND HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN A RATHER
WARM/MUGGY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION WITH MAINLY 60S EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR MOST OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED
MOST OF OUR REGION WITHIN THE SLIGHT RISK CATEGORY ON WEDNESDAY.
THE COMBINATION OF A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE WITH PWATS CLIMBING IN
EXCESS OF 1.75 INCHES...SURFACE DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S...SOME
GRADUAL HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS FOR
ENHANCING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO INTERACT WITH INCREASING
BUOYANCY AS SBCAPES CLIMB TOWARD 2K J/KG...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL IS ON THE INCREASE. A DEPARTING UPPER JET WITH ENTRANCE
REGION DYNAMICS AND SHEAR PROFILES INCREASING TO AROUND 30KTS
SHOULD RESULT IN SOME ORGANIZATION. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW
MUCH INSOLATION WE WILL RECEIVE AS THE NCEP MODEL SUITE DOES
SUGGEST AMPLE MOISTURE...ALTHOUGH...MODELS DO TEND TO
OVERESTIMATE. SO WE WILL ADD SOME ENHANCED WORDING TO THE
FORECAST/GRIDS AT THIS TIME. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...MOS GUIDANCE IS
WARMER ON THE MET MOS THAN THE MAV MOS...WE WILL FAVOR THE WARMER
SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

THE FRONTAL AXIS IS PROGGED TO BE OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING
THE EVENING WITH A DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE
CONVECTION AT THAT TIME. HOWEVER...THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND
MAIN UPPER TROUGH HAS YET TO APPROACH SO WE WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS
IN THE GRIDS OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY. IN
FACT...TRENDS IN THE 12Z GUIDANCE ARE A LITTLE FASTER WITH THESE
FEATURES WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. AS FOR THURSDAY HIGHS...AN ENSEMBLE
APPROACH OF THE H850 THERMAL FIELDS SUGGEST COLD ADVECTION WILL BE
OCCURRING THROUGH THE DAY WITH LESS THAN 10C FOR THE DACKS. WE
WILL THEREFORE KEEP TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 65-70F FOR THESE AREAS
AND KEEP 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN MAGNITUDES AS
GUSTS WELL INTO THE 20KTS ARE EXPECTED.

SUBSIDENCE INCREASES QUICKLY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH RISING SURFACE
PRESSURES AND A MUCH DRIER ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN ADVECTING INTO THE
REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE CLEARING SKIES...DIMINISHING WINDS AND
A MORE COMFORTABLE NIGHT AS LOWS DIP BACK INTO THE 50S FOR MOST OF
THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRI-SAT SHOULD TREND BACK TO NEAR...OR
POSSIBLY EVEN A BIT BELOW NORMAL BY SUN-TUE...AS THE EAST COAST
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEAMPLIFIES WITH THE APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
FROM SOUTHERN CANADA. AS IT DEAMPLIFIES...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION SOMETIME LATE SAT OR EARLY SUN. THIS SHOULD BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. DEPENDING ON ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE INCOMING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES/SE CANADA...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE COLD
FRONT SLOWS DOWN AND/OR A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG IT AND TRACKS SOUTH OF
THE REGION. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...SHOWERS OR EVEN A PERIOD OF STEADY
RAIN COULD LINGER IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR SUN INTO EARLY
MON...ESP ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.

SO...INITIALLY EXPECT DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY AS UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE ONCE AGAIN. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE
MODERATE...SO DESPITE MAX TEMPS REACHING THE MID/UPPER 80S IN
PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...APPARENT TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY
REMAIN BELOW 90. FRI NT/SAT AM SHOULD REMAIN DRY...BUT WARM...WITH
MIN TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 60S FOR MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND 55-60 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

FOR SAT-MON...THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT SHOULD APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATER SAT...AND SLOWLY PRESS SOUTH AND EAST SAT NT INTO
EARLY SUN. WILL INDICATE HIGH CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS FOR
SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR SAT AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...GRADUALLY TAPERING
DOWNWARD FROM NW TO SE ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST THE FRONT REACHES...AND WHETHER A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO
LOW CHC FOR MOST CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS INTO MON. MAX TEMPS
SHOULD BE RATHER WARM SAT...WITH TEMPS REACHING 85-90 IN VALLEYS AND
LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. DEWPOINTS SHOULD RISE INTO
THE LOWER 60S...SO APPARENT TEMPS SHOULD BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
ACTUAL HIGH TEMPS OF 85-90. SAT NT/SUN AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
50S TO LOWER 60S...THEN EXPECT COOLER MAX TEMPS FOR SUN INTO
MON...WITH MAXES MAINLY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S SUN...AND MAINLY 60S
FOR MON. SUN NT/MON AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

MON NT-TUE...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACHES. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO LOW
CHC POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. MON
NT/TUE AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S...WITH TUE
MAX TEMPS REACHING 70-75 FOR MOST VALLEYS...AND 65-70 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL MAINTAIN A WARM
AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING...ESP FOR KPOU/KALB AND KPSF.

A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THROUGH SUNSET...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. HOWEVER...AS
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 20Z-22Z/TUE...AND MAY LINGER UNTIL
ROUGHLY 01Z-03Z/WED. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE AT KALB/KPOU AND KPSF.
THERE COULD BE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITHIN ANY
HEAVIER DOWNPOURS.

AFTER SUNSET...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD WEAKEN.
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAINFALL OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...THERE COULD BE AREAS OF MVFR OR BORDERLINE IFR CIGS/VSBYS
LATER TONIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT KPSF.

ON WEDNESDAY...AFTER ANY PATCHY LOW CLOUDS/FOG BURN OFF...EXPECT
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z/WED. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP AFTER 16Z/WED...WITH INCREASING CHANCES THEREAFTER.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 8-12 KT...WITH
GUSTS OF 15-22 KT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AT MAINLY 5-10 KT. ON WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL BE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 8-12 KT...WITH GUSTS OF 15-22 KT
ONCE AGAIN BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE STRONGER...AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION IN AND NEAR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WED TO WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

FRIDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS IN THE 50S.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...MAINLY ON WEDNESDAY.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED MODERATE
DROUGHT AT THIS TIME.

WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE BETTER AND MORE
WIDESPREAD CHANCES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INT0 THE EVENING.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.75+ INCHES ARE EXPECTED SO STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY



000
FXUS61 KALY 261957
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
357 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH AN INCREASING THREAT
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY
CONTAIN STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL ON WEDNESDAY. MORE
TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS RETURN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FOR THE LAST WEEKEND OF MAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT...REGIONAL RADAR REVEALS A SCT-BKN LINE OF
CONVECTION ACROSS THE CATSKILLS...SOUTHERN TIER OF NY INTO
NORTHERN PA. MUCH WEAKER REFLECTIVITIES EXIST ACROSS THE I90
CORRIDOR. THIS ACTIVITY IS ALONG A MID LEVEL THETA-E BOUNDARY AND
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS. H2O VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A COUPLE OF WEAK WAVES
TRANSVERSING THE NEAR ZONAL FLOW ACROSS UPSTATE NY. THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...THIS CONVECTION
SHOULD DIMINISH YET THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS LINGERS OVERNIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF THE NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET MAGNITUDES INCREASING
EMBEDDED WITH A DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILES AND HIGHER THETA-E AIR TO
WARRANT THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. A PT-
MOCLOUDY SKY AND HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN A RATHER
WARM/MUGGY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION WITH MAINLY 60S EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR MOST OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED
MOST OF OUR REGION WITHIN THE SLIGHT RISK CATEGORY ON WEDNESDAY.
THE COMBINATION OF A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE WITH PWATS CLIMBING IN
EXCESS OF 1.75 INCHES...SURFACE DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S...SOME
GRADUAL HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS FOR
ENHANCING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO INTERACT WITH INCREASING
BUOYANCY AS SBCAPES CLIMB TOWARD 2K J/KG...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL IS ON THE INCREASE. A DEPARTING UPPER JET WITH ENTRANCE
REGION DYNAMICS AND SHEAR PROFILES INCREASING TO AROUND 30KTS
SHOULD RESULT IN SOME ORGANIZATION. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW
MUCH INSOLATION WE WILL RECEIVE AS THE NCEP MODEL SUITE DOES
SUGGEST AMPLE MOISTURE...ALTHOUGH...MODELS DO TEND TO
OVERESTIMATE. SO WE WILL ADD SOME ENHANCED WORDING TO THE
FORECAST/GRIDS AT THIS TIME. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...MOS GUIDANCE IS
WARMER ON THE MET MOS THAN THE MAV MOS...WE WILL FAVOR THE WARMER
SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

THE FRONTAL AXIS IS PROGGED TO BE OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING
THE EVENING WITH A DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE
CONVECTION AT THAT TIME. HOWEVER...THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND
MAIN UPPER TROUGH HAS YET TO APPROACH SO WE WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS
IN THE GRIDS OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY. IN
FACT...TRENDS IN THE 12Z GUIDANCE ARE A LITTLE FASTER WITH THESE
FEATURES WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. AS FOR THURSDAY HIGHS...AN ENSEMBLE
APPROACH OF THE H850 THERMAL FIELDS SUGGEST COLD ADVECTION WILL BE
OCCURRING THROUGH THE DAY WITH LESS THAN 10C FOR THE DACKS. WE
WILL THEREFORE KEEP TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 65-70F FOR THESE AREAS
AND KEEP 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN MAGNITUDES AS
GUSTS WELL INTO THE 20KTS ARE EXPECTED.

SUBSIDENCE INCREASES QUICKLY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH RISING SURFACE
PRESSURES AND A MUCH DRIER ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN ADVECTING INTO THE
REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE CLEARING SKIES...DIMINISHING WINDS AND
A MORE COMFORTABLE NIGHT AS LOWS DIP BACK INTO THE 50S FOR MOST OF
THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRI-SAT SHOULD TREND BACK TO NEAR...OR
POSSIBLY EVEN A BIT BELOW NORMAL BY SUN-TUE...AS THE EAST COAST
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEAMPLIFIES WITH THE APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
FROM SOUTHERN CANADA. AS IT DEAMPLIFIES...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION SOMETIME LATE SAT OR EARLY SUN. THIS SHOULD BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. DEPENDING ON ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE INCOMING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES/SE CANADA...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE COLD
FRONT SLOWS DOWN AND/OR A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG IT AND TRACKS SOUTH OF
THE REGION. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...SHOWERS OR EVEN A PERIOD OF STEADY
RAIN COULD LINGER IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR SUN INTO EARLY
MON...ESP ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.

SO...INITIALLY EXPECT DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY AS UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE ONCE AGAIN. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE
MODERATE...SO DESPITE MAX TEMPS REACHING THE MID/UPPER 80S IN
PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...APPARENT TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY
REMAIN BELOW 90. FRI NT/SAT AM SHOULD REMAIN DRY...BUT WARM...WITH
MIN TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 60S FOR MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND 55-60 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

FOR SAT-MON...THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT SHOULD APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATER SAT...AND SLOWLY PRESS SOUTH AND EAST SAT NT INTO
EARLY SUN. WILL INDICATE HIGH CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS FOR
SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR SAT AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...GRADUALLY TAPERING
DOWNWARD FROM NW TO SE ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST THE FRONT REACHES...AND WHETHER A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO
LOW CHC FOR MOST CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS INTO MON. MAX TEMPS
SHOULD BE RATHER WARM SAT...WITH TEMPS REACHING 85-90 IN VALLEYS AND
LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. DEWPOINTS SHOULD RISE INTO
THE LOWER 60S...SO APPARENT TEMPS SHOULD BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
ACTUAL HIGH TEMPS OF 85-90. SAT NT/SUN AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
50S TO LOWER 60S...THEN EXPECT COOLER MAX TEMPS FOR SUN INTO
MON...WITH MAXES MAINLY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S SUN...AND MAINLY 60S
FOR MON. SUN NT/MON AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

MON NT-TUE...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACHES. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO LOW
CHC POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. MON
NT/TUE AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S...WITH TUE
MAX TEMPS REACHING 70-75 FOR MOST VALLEYS...AND 65-70 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL MAINTAIN A WARM
AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING...ESP FOR KPOU/KALB AND KPSF.

A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THROUGH SUNSET...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. HOWEVER...AS
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 20Z-22Z/TUE...AND MAY LINGER UNTIL
ROUGHLY 01Z-03Z/WED. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE AT KALB/KPOU AND KPSF.
THERE COULD BE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITHIN ANY
HEAVIER DOWNPOURS.

AFTER SUNSET...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD WEAKEN.
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAINFALL OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...THERE COULD BE AREAS OF MVFR OR BORDERLINE IFR CIGS/VSBYS
LATER TONIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT KPSF.

ON WEDNESDAY...AFTER ANY PATCHY LOW CLOUDS/FOG BURN OFF...EXPECT
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z/WED. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP AFTER 16Z/WED...WITH INCREASING CHANCES THEREAFTER.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 8-12 KT...WITH
GUSTS OF 15-22 KT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AT MAINLY 5-10 KT. ON WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL BE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 8-12 KT...WITH GUSTS OF 15-22 KT
ONCE AGAIN BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE STRONGER...AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION IN AND NEAR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WED TO WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

FRIDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS IN THE 50S.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...MAINLY ON WEDNESDAY.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED MODERATE
DROUGHT AT THIS TIME.

WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE BETTER AND MORE
WIDESPREAD CHANCES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INT0 THE EVENING.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.75+ INCHES ARE EXPECTED SO STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY




000
FXUS61 KALY 261957
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
357 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH AN INCREASING THREAT
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY
CONTAIN STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL ON WEDNESDAY. MORE
TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS RETURN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FOR THE LAST WEEKEND OF MAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT...REGIONAL RADAR REVEALS A SCT-BKN LINE OF
CONVECTION ACROSS THE CATSKILLS...SOUTHERN TIER OF NY INTO
NORTHERN PA. MUCH WEAKER REFLECTIVITIES EXIST ACROSS THE I90
CORRIDOR. THIS ACTIVITY IS ALONG A MID LEVEL THETA-E BOUNDARY AND
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS. H2O VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A COUPLE OF WEAK WAVES
TRANSVERSING THE NEAR ZONAL FLOW ACROSS UPSTATE NY. THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...THIS CONVECTION
SHOULD DIMINISH YET THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS LINGERS OVERNIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF THE NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET MAGNITUDES INCREASING
EMBEDDED WITH A DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILES AND HIGHER THETA-E AIR TO
WARRANT THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. A PT-
MOCLOUDY SKY AND HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN A RATHER
WARM/MUGGY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION WITH MAINLY 60S EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR MOST OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED
MOST OF OUR REGION WITHIN THE SLIGHT RISK CATEGORY ON WEDNESDAY.
THE COMBINATION OF A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE WITH PWATS CLIMBING IN
EXCESS OF 1.75 INCHES...SURFACE DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S...SOME
GRADUAL HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS FOR
ENHANCING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO INTERACT WITH INCREASING
BUOYANCY AS SBCAPES CLIMB TOWARD 2K J/KG...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL IS ON THE INCREASE. A DEPARTING UPPER JET WITH ENTRANCE
REGION DYNAMICS AND SHEAR PROFILES INCREASING TO AROUND 30KTS
SHOULD RESULT IN SOME ORGANIZATION. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW
MUCH INSOLATION WE WILL RECEIVE AS THE NCEP MODEL SUITE DOES
SUGGEST AMPLE MOISTURE...ALTHOUGH...MODELS DO TEND TO
OVERESTIMATE. SO WE WILL ADD SOME ENHANCED WORDING TO THE
FORECAST/GRIDS AT THIS TIME. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...MOS GUIDANCE IS
WARMER ON THE MET MOS THAN THE MAV MOS...WE WILL FAVOR THE WARMER
SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

THE FRONTAL AXIS IS PROGGED TO BE OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING
THE EVENING WITH A DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE
CONVECTION AT THAT TIME. HOWEVER...THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND
MAIN UPPER TROUGH HAS YET TO APPROACH SO WE WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS
IN THE GRIDS OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY. IN
FACT...TRENDS IN THE 12Z GUIDANCE ARE A LITTLE FASTER WITH THESE
FEATURES WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. AS FOR THURSDAY HIGHS...AN ENSEMBLE
APPROACH OF THE H850 THERMAL FIELDS SUGGEST COLD ADVECTION WILL BE
OCCURRING THROUGH THE DAY WITH LESS THAN 10C FOR THE DACKS. WE
WILL THEREFORE KEEP TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 65-70F FOR THESE AREAS
AND KEEP 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN MAGNITUDES AS
GUSTS WELL INTO THE 20KTS ARE EXPECTED.

SUBSIDENCE INCREASES QUICKLY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH RISING SURFACE
PRESSURES AND A MUCH DRIER ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN ADVECTING INTO THE
REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE CLEARING SKIES...DIMINISHING WINDS AND
A MORE COMFORTABLE NIGHT AS LOWS DIP BACK INTO THE 50S FOR MOST OF
THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRI-SAT SHOULD TREND BACK TO NEAR...OR
POSSIBLY EVEN A BIT BELOW NORMAL BY SUN-TUE...AS THE EAST COAST
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEAMPLIFIES WITH THE APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
FROM SOUTHERN CANADA. AS IT DEAMPLIFIES...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION SOMETIME LATE SAT OR EARLY SUN. THIS SHOULD BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. DEPENDING ON ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE INCOMING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES/SE CANADA...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE COLD
FRONT SLOWS DOWN AND/OR A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG IT AND TRACKS SOUTH OF
THE REGION. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...SHOWERS OR EVEN A PERIOD OF STEADY
RAIN COULD LINGER IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR SUN INTO EARLY
MON...ESP ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.

SO...INITIALLY EXPECT DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY AS UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE ONCE AGAIN. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE
MODERATE...SO DESPITE MAX TEMPS REACHING THE MID/UPPER 80S IN
PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...APPARENT TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY
REMAIN BELOW 90. FRI NT/SAT AM SHOULD REMAIN DRY...BUT WARM...WITH
MIN TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 60S FOR MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND 55-60 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

FOR SAT-MON...THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT SHOULD APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATER SAT...AND SLOWLY PRESS SOUTH AND EAST SAT NT INTO
EARLY SUN. WILL INDICATE HIGH CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS FOR
SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR SAT AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...GRADUALLY TAPERING
DOWNWARD FROM NW TO SE ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST THE FRONT REACHES...AND WHETHER A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO
LOW CHC FOR MOST CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS INTO MON. MAX TEMPS
SHOULD BE RATHER WARM SAT...WITH TEMPS REACHING 85-90 IN VALLEYS AND
LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. DEWPOINTS SHOULD RISE INTO
THE LOWER 60S...SO APPARENT TEMPS SHOULD BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
ACTUAL HIGH TEMPS OF 85-90. SAT NT/SUN AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
50S TO LOWER 60S...THEN EXPECT COOLER MAX TEMPS FOR SUN INTO
MON...WITH MAXES MAINLY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S SUN...AND MAINLY 60S
FOR MON. SUN NT/MON AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

MON NT-TUE...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACHES. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO LOW
CHC POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. MON
NT/TUE AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S...WITH TUE
MAX TEMPS REACHING 70-75 FOR MOST VALLEYS...AND 65-70 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL MAINTAIN A WARM
AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING...ESP FOR KPOU/KALB AND KPSF.

A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THROUGH SUNSET...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. HOWEVER...AS
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 20Z-22Z/TUE...AND MAY LINGER UNTIL
ROUGHLY 01Z-03Z/WED. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE AT KALB/KPOU AND KPSF.
THERE COULD BE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITHIN ANY
HEAVIER DOWNPOURS.

AFTER SUNSET...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD WEAKEN.
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAINFALL OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...THERE COULD BE AREAS OF MVFR OR BORDERLINE IFR CIGS/VSBYS
LATER TONIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT KPSF.

ON WEDNESDAY...AFTER ANY PATCHY LOW CLOUDS/FOG BURN OFF...EXPECT
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z/WED. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP AFTER 16Z/WED...WITH INCREASING CHANCES THEREAFTER.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 8-12 KT...WITH
GUSTS OF 15-22 KT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AT MAINLY 5-10 KT. ON WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL BE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 8-12 KT...WITH GUSTS OF 15-22 KT
ONCE AGAIN BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE STRONGER...AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION IN AND NEAR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WED TO WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

FRIDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS IN THE 50S.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...MAINLY ON WEDNESDAY.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED MODERATE
DROUGHT AT THIS TIME.

WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE BETTER AND MORE
WIDESPREAD CHANCES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INT0 THE EVENING.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.75+ INCHES ARE EXPECTED SO STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY



000
FXUS61 KOKX 261819
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
219 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS ANCHORED WELL OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND REACH THE TRI-STATE REGION THURSDAY. THE
FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH ON SATURDAY...AND SAG SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
THE FRONT WILL THEN BECOME STATIONARY FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST DATABASE THIS UPDATE OTHER
THAN TO UPDATE TEMPERATURE...DEW POINT...AND SKY GRIDS TO REFLECT
LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

THE REGION REMAINS ON N/W PERIPHERY OF DEEP LAYERED RIDGE. THE
BIGGEST QUESTION FOR LATER TODAY IS IF NW ZONES FAR ENOUGH REMOVED
FROM THE RIDGE TO GET ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION. THE GFS/NAM
ARGUE YES...THE CMC/ECMWF ARGUE NO.

A TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION IS LACKING TODAY ACROSS NW ZONES...BUT
EXPECT A FAIRLY STRONG SEABREEZE TO PENETRATE WELL INLAND THIS
AFTERNOON. THE SEABREEZE BOUNDARY COULD SERVE AS A TRIGGER FOR
CONVECTION OVER NW INTERIOR ZONES IF FORECAST CAPE OF 500-1500
J/KG CAPE IS REALIZED (NO CAPE IN ECMWF). SURFACE BASED CAPE HAS
BEGUN TO INCREASE ACROSS ORANGE COUNTY...BUT BEST INSTABILITY AND
LIFT ARE LIKELY TO STAY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF OUR INTERIOR
ZONES. HAVE CONTINUED WITH MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER NW
ZONES...WITH CHANCE POPS W ORANGE COUNTY.

FOR HIGHS TODAY USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 975 TO 850 HPA PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR METEOROLOGICAL ENHANCEMENT OF RIP
CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
CORE OF DEEP LAYERED RIDGE SLIDES SLIGHTLY FARTHER TO THE S/E
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

FOR TONIGHT...THE CMC/ECMWF KEEP THINGS DRY...WITH NO FORCING.
WHILE THE GFS/NAM BRING A WEAK 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE OVER MAINLY
N/W PORTIONS OF THE AREA. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY HAVE CAPPED POPS AT
SLIGHT CHANCE.

GIVEN PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW AND FORECAST DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW
LEVEL INVERSION...EXPECT FOR LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP
TONIGHT...TIMING IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...BUT WOULD EXPECT S SHORE
LOCATIONS TO GO FIRST...AFTER SUNSET...WITH INTERIOR AREAS
CLOUDING UP AROUND/AFTER MIDNIGHT. ANY LOW CLOUDS WILL BE LAST TO
REACH NW ZONES...IF THEY DO AT ALL...NOTING WEAKER IF NOT NON-
EXISTENT LOW LEVEL INVERSION IN BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AT KMGJ/KSWF. IN
ADDITION TO THE STRATUS...HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AS WELL. IF
THE SHOWERS/TSTMS MATERIALIZE...WOULD NOT EXPECT ANY FOG UNTIL
AFTER THEY PASS. AS IS ALWAYS THE CASE WHEN YOU HAVE MARINE
INDUCED STRATUS...IS IT IS NEVER CERTAIN WHETHER YOU WILL GET FOG
AS WELL...SO RESTRICTED FOG TO PATCHY AND AT THIS TIME WILL NOT
FORECAST ANY LOCALLY DENSE FOG...THOUGH CANNOT RULE IT
OUT...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT...USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES. VALUES SHOULD BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

ON WEDNESDAY CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OVER WESTERN ZONES WILL BE AIDED
BY FORMATION OF A LEE/THERMAL TROUGH...PASSING OF A 30-35 KT 950
HPA JET...AND MODEL AVERAGE FORECAST CAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG.
BASED ON THIS HAVE 40-50 POPS OVER NW ZONES BY AFTERNOON...WITH
CHANCE POPS INTO NYC/SW CT AND SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE. AS IS
ALWAYS THE QUESTION THIS TIME OF YEAR...IS HOW LONG DO STORMS STAY
TOGETHER AS THEY HEAD EAST INTO THE MARINE LAYER. WITH BULK
RICHARDSON NUMBER GENERALLY FORECAST TO BE MUCH GREATER THAN
40...WOULD EXPECT MAINLY ISOLATED PULSE STORMS. HOWEVER...IF
THE HIGH END OF MODEL FORECAST CAPE IS REALIZED...THEN SOME
LOCALIZED SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT...WITH THE
BEST CHANCE OVER THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY W OF THE HUDSON RIVER.

FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 975 TO 900
HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A BLEND
OF MAV/ECS/MET GUIDANCE. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESIDUAL CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO EASE THRU THE REGION WED NIGHT.
THE FRONT WILL STILL BE ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND CENTRAL PA AT THIS
POINT PER THE NAM AND GFS. A DECENT RIBBON OF CAPE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT ON THU. THIS INSTABILITY AXIS SHOULD RESIDE FROM ROUGHLY
NORTHEASTERN NJ THRU THE HUDSON VALLEY AND INTO WRN CT. THE
PERSISTENT SWLY SFC FLOW WILL KEEP THE COASTS FAIRLY STABLE. THE
CITY WILL BE IN THE GRADIENT REGION...WITH THE SEA BREEZE
INFLUENCE ATTEMPTING TO STABILIZE THE AREA AS WELL. THE FRONT WILL
BE A FOCUS FOR TSTMS PER THE 00Z GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...THE FRONT
LOOKS TO DISSIPATE AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE COOLER MARITIME INFLUENCED
AIRMASS. AS A RESULT THE BOUNDARY MAY NEVER EVEN MAKE IT TO ERN
AREAS. SLY FLOW DEVELOPS ON FRI AS THE PRES FALLS N OF THE REGION.
THIS FALLING PRES WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONGER COLD
FRONT...WHICH WILL APPROACH ON SAT BEFORE STALLING S OF THE AREA
LATE SUN INTO TUE. GOOD CHANCES FOR CONVECTION SAT. PRECIPITATION TYPE
AND CHANCES WILL TIED TO THE POSITION OF THE FRONT SUN AND MON.
FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL BE FAR ENOUGH S TO KEEP THE
CWA FIRMLY IN THE COLDER AIRMASS WITH EASTERLY WINDS AND RAIN
CHANCES AS OPPOSED TO SHOWERS AND TSTMS. HOWEVER...THIS IS STILL
FAR OUT AND EVEN A FRONTAL POSITION JUST S OF THE CWA COULD ALLOW
FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PERSISTENT OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH VFR
THROUGH TONIGHT. ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE KSWF THIS
AFTERNOON...WHERE THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND EXACT LOCATION IS PRETTY
LOW.

THE CONTINUED S-SW FLOW OF 10-15 KT GUSTING TO 20-25 KT WILL
LOWER THIS EVENING AND WEDNESDAY. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH WITH THE
CATEGORY FORECAST AND MODERATE WITH WINDS. HOWEVER...THE
CONFIDENCE FOR CATEGORY LOWERS LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THERE
WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS/FOG AS WELL AS SOME SHOWERS.

THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING WHERE THE LOWERING OF CATEGORY
COULD START/END 2-3 HRS DIFFERENT FROM FORECAST AND THE CATEGORY
ITSELF COULD BE 1-2 CATEGORIES DIFFERENT FROM OBSERVED AT TIMES.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY BE A FEW KTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY BE A FEW KTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY BE A FEW KTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY BE A FEW KTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY BE A FEW KTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY BE A FEW KTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING SHRA/TSTM...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE NYC METRO
TERMINALS. SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT.
.THURSDAY-SATURDAY...THIS IS A CHANCE OF LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING MVFR OR LOWER STRATUS AND/OR FOG. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHRA/TSTM THU AND SAT. WIND GUSTS 15-20
KT THU AFTN AND SAT AFTN.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WITH CHANCE OF
SHRA/TSTM.
.SUNDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WITH CHANCE OF SHRA/ISOLATED
TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE CONTINUED WITH SCA ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON TO AROUND 25 KT HELPING
TO KEEP SEAS AT AROUND 5 FT. HAVE ALSO ISSUED AN SCA FOR NY HARBOR
AND THE S SHORE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND FROM 16Z TODAY THROUGH 4Z
TONIGHT FOR GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT WITH THE SEABREEZE. ON THE
REMAINDER OF THE WATERS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT..EXPECT GUSTS TO TOP
OUT AT 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF DENSE FOG TO FORM OVER THE
WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHAT FORMS
COULD ALSO JUST END UP BEING AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS. TO SOON TO
TELL...SO WENT WITH PATCHY FOG LOWERING VISIBILITIES TO 1-3NM.

FOR WINDS AND WAVES ON WEDNESDAY...ITS LIKELY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY/TODAY WITH SCA SEAS ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS ALL
DAY...AND GUSTS TO 25 KT ON THE COASTAL OCEAN ZONES/NY HARBOR/S
SHORE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE
IS NOT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH TO EXTEND THE SCA INTO WEDNESDAY AT THIS
TIME.

SCA SEAS REMAIN ON THE OCEAN WED NIGHT THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
THRU THE DAY ON THU. WINDS WILL BE MARGINAL ON THE OCEAN AND S
SHORE BAYS...AND BELOW SCA LEVELS ELSEWHERE. LIGHTER FLOW THU
THRU FRI NIGHT WITH CONDITIONS BELOW SCA LEVELS. WINDS AND SEAS
BUILD ON SAT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY
SUNSET...ESPECIALLY THE OCEAN. AS THE FRONT STALLS S OF THE WATERS
SUN AND MON...NE FLOW WOULD DRIVE SEAS TO 5 FT OR MORE ON THE
OCEAN...WITH WIND SPEEDS IN THE 15-25KT RANGE ALL WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GENERALLY LESS THAN 1/10 OF AN INCH OF BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER ANY STRONGER CONVECTION THAT
FORMS...ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS ANY TRAINING OF STORMS...COULD
LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AND/OR POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT IMPACTS THE AREA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ338-345.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...JMC/MALOIT/DS
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JMC/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...JMC/MALOIT




000
FXUS61 KOKX 261819
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
219 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS ANCHORED WELL OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND REACH THE TRI-STATE REGION THURSDAY. THE
FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH ON SATURDAY...AND SAG SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
THE FRONT WILL THEN BECOME STATIONARY FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST DATABASE THIS UPDATE OTHER
THAN TO UPDATE TEMPERATURE...DEW POINT...AND SKY GRIDS TO REFLECT
LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

THE REGION REMAINS ON N/W PERIPHERY OF DEEP LAYERED RIDGE. THE
BIGGEST QUESTION FOR LATER TODAY IS IF NW ZONES FAR ENOUGH REMOVED
FROM THE RIDGE TO GET ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION. THE GFS/NAM
ARGUE YES...THE CMC/ECMWF ARGUE NO.

A TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION IS LACKING TODAY ACROSS NW ZONES...BUT
EXPECT A FAIRLY STRONG SEABREEZE TO PENETRATE WELL INLAND THIS
AFTERNOON. THE SEABREEZE BOUNDARY COULD SERVE AS A TRIGGER FOR
CONVECTION OVER NW INTERIOR ZONES IF FORECAST CAPE OF 500-1500
J/KG CAPE IS REALIZED (NO CAPE IN ECMWF). SURFACE BASED CAPE HAS
BEGUN TO INCREASE ACROSS ORANGE COUNTY...BUT BEST INSTABILITY AND
LIFT ARE LIKELY TO STAY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF OUR INTERIOR
ZONES. HAVE CONTINUED WITH MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER NW
ZONES...WITH CHANCE POPS W ORANGE COUNTY.

FOR HIGHS TODAY USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 975 TO 850 HPA PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR METEOROLOGICAL ENHANCEMENT OF RIP
CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
CORE OF DEEP LAYERED RIDGE SLIDES SLIGHTLY FARTHER TO THE S/E
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

FOR TONIGHT...THE CMC/ECMWF KEEP THINGS DRY...WITH NO FORCING.
WHILE THE GFS/NAM BRING A WEAK 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE OVER MAINLY
N/W PORTIONS OF THE AREA. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY HAVE CAPPED POPS AT
SLIGHT CHANCE.

GIVEN PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW AND FORECAST DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW
LEVEL INVERSION...EXPECT FOR LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP
TONIGHT...TIMING IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...BUT WOULD EXPECT S SHORE
LOCATIONS TO GO FIRST...AFTER SUNSET...WITH INTERIOR AREAS
CLOUDING UP AROUND/AFTER MIDNIGHT. ANY LOW CLOUDS WILL BE LAST TO
REACH NW ZONES...IF THEY DO AT ALL...NOTING WEAKER IF NOT NON-
EXISTENT LOW LEVEL INVERSION IN BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AT KMGJ/KSWF. IN
ADDITION TO THE STRATUS...HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AS WELL. IF
THE SHOWERS/TSTMS MATERIALIZE...WOULD NOT EXPECT ANY FOG UNTIL
AFTER THEY PASS. AS IS ALWAYS THE CASE WHEN YOU HAVE MARINE
INDUCED STRATUS...IS IT IS NEVER CERTAIN WHETHER YOU WILL GET FOG
AS WELL...SO RESTRICTED FOG TO PATCHY AND AT THIS TIME WILL NOT
FORECAST ANY LOCALLY DENSE FOG...THOUGH CANNOT RULE IT
OUT...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT...USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES. VALUES SHOULD BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

ON WEDNESDAY CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OVER WESTERN ZONES WILL BE AIDED
BY FORMATION OF A LEE/THERMAL TROUGH...PASSING OF A 30-35 KT 950
HPA JET...AND MODEL AVERAGE FORECAST CAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG.
BASED ON THIS HAVE 40-50 POPS OVER NW ZONES BY AFTERNOON...WITH
CHANCE POPS INTO NYC/SW CT AND SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE. AS IS
ALWAYS THE QUESTION THIS TIME OF YEAR...IS HOW LONG DO STORMS STAY
TOGETHER AS THEY HEAD EAST INTO THE MARINE LAYER. WITH BULK
RICHARDSON NUMBER GENERALLY FORECAST TO BE MUCH GREATER THAN
40...WOULD EXPECT MAINLY ISOLATED PULSE STORMS. HOWEVER...IF
THE HIGH END OF MODEL FORECAST CAPE IS REALIZED...THEN SOME
LOCALIZED SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT...WITH THE
BEST CHANCE OVER THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY W OF THE HUDSON RIVER.

FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 975 TO 900
HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A BLEND
OF MAV/ECS/MET GUIDANCE. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESIDUAL CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO EASE THRU THE REGION WED NIGHT.
THE FRONT WILL STILL BE ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND CENTRAL PA AT THIS
POINT PER THE NAM AND GFS. A DECENT RIBBON OF CAPE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT ON THU. THIS INSTABILITY AXIS SHOULD RESIDE FROM ROUGHLY
NORTHEASTERN NJ THRU THE HUDSON VALLEY AND INTO WRN CT. THE
PERSISTENT SWLY SFC FLOW WILL KEEP THE COASTS FAIRLY STABLE. THE
CITY WILL BE IN THE GRADIENT REGION...WITH THE SEA BREEZE
INFLUENCE ATTEMPTING TO STABILIZE THE AREA AS WELL. THE FRONT WILL
BE A FOCUS FOR TSTMS PER THE 00Z GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...THE FRONT
LOOKS TO DISSIPATE AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE COOLER MARITIME INFLUENCED
AIRMASS. AS A RESULT THE BOUNDARY MAY NEVER EVEN MAKE IT TO ERN
AREAS. SLY FLOW DEVELOPS ON FRI AS THE PRES FALLS N OF THE REGION.
THIS FALLING PRES WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONGER COLD
FRONT...WHICH WILL APPROACH ON SAT BEFORE STALLING S OF THE AREA
LATE SUN INTO TUE. GOOD CHANCES FOR CONVECTION SAT. PRECIPITATION TYPE
AND CHANCES WILL TIED TO THE POSITION OF THE FRONT SUN AND MON.
FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL BE FAR ENOUGH S TO KEEP THE
CWA FIRMLY IN THE COLDER AIRMASS WITH EASTERLY WINDS AND RAIN
CHANCES AS OPPOSED TO SHOWERS AND TSTMS. HOWEVER...THIS IS STILL
FAR OUT AND EVEN A FRONTAL POSITION JUST S OF THE CWA COULD ALLOW
FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PERSISTENT OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH VFR
THROUGH TONIGHT. ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE KSWF THIS
AFTERNOON...WHERE THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND EXACT LOCATION IS PRETTY
LOW.

THE CONTINUED S-SW FLOW OF 10-15 KT GUSTING TO 20-25 KT WILL
LOWER THIS EVENING AND WEDNESDAY. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH WITH THE
CATEGORY FORECAST AND MODERATE WITH WINDS. HOWEVER...THE
CONFIDENCE FOR CATEGORY LOWERS LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THERE
WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS/FOG AS WELL AS SOME SHOWERS.

THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING WHERE THE LOWERING OF CATEGORY
COULD START/END 2-3 HRS DIFFERENT FROM FORECAST AND THE CATEGORY
ITSELF COULD BE 1-2 CATEGORIES DIFFERENT FROM OBSERVED AT TIMES.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY BE A FEW KTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY BE A FEW KTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY BE A FEW KTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY BE A FEW KTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY BE A FEW KTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY BE A FEW KTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING SHRA/TSTM...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE NYC METRO
TERMINALS. SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT.
.THURSDAY-SATURDAY...THIS IS A CHANCE OF LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING MVFR OR LOWER STRATUS AND/OR FOG. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHRA/TSTM THU AND SAT. WIND GUSTS 15-20
KT THU AFTN AND SAT AFTN.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WITH CHANCE OF
SHRA/TSTM.
.SUNDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WITH CHANCE OF SHRA/ISOLATED
TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE CONTINUED WITH SCA ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON TO AROUND 25 KT HELPING
TO KEEP SEAS AT AROUND 5 FT. HAVE ALSO ISSUED AN SCA FOR NY HARBOR
AND THE S SHORE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND FROM 16Z TODAY THROUGH 4Z
TONIGHT FOR GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT WITH THE SEABREEZE. ON THE
REMAINDER OF THE WATERS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT..EXPECT GUSTS TO TOP
OUT AT 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF DENSE FOG TO FORM OVER THE
WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHAT FORMS
COULD ALSO JUST END UP BEING AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS. TO SOON TO
TELL...SO WENT WITH PATCHY FOG LOWERING VISIBILITIES TO 1-3NM.

FOR WINDS AND WAVES ON WEDNESDAY...ITS LIKELY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY/TODAY WITH SCA SEAS ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS ALL
DAY...AND GUSTS TO 25 KT ON THE COASTAL OCEAN ZONES/NY HARBOR/S
SHORE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE
IS NOT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH TO EXTEND THE SCA INTO WEDNESDAY AT THIS
TIME.

SCA SEAS REMAIN ON THE OCEAN WED NIGHT THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
THRU THE DAY ON THU. WINDS WILL BE MARGINAL ON THE OCEAN AND S
SHORE BAYS...AND BELOW SCA LEVELS ELSEWHERE. LIGHTER FLOW THU
THRU FRI NIGHT WITH CONDITIONS BELOW SCA LEVELS. WINDS AND SEAS
BUILD ON SAT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY
SUNSET...ESPECIALLY THE OCEAN. AS THE FRONT STALLS S OF THE WATERS
SUN AND MON...NE FLOW WOULD DRIVE SEAS TO 5 FT OR MORE ON THE
OCEAN...WITH WIND SPEEDS IN THE 15-25KT RANGE ALL WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GENERALLY LESS THAN 1/10 OF AN INCH OF BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER ANY STRONGER CONVECTION THAT
FORMS...ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS ANY TRAINING OF STORMS...COULD
LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AND/OR POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT IMPACTS THE AREA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ338-345.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...JMC/MALOIT/DS
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JMC/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...JMC/MALOIT



000
FXUS61 KOKX 261819
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
219 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS ANCHORED WELL OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND REACH THE TRI-STATE REGION THURSDAY. THE
FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH ON SATURDAY...AND SAG SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
THE FRONT WILL THEN BECOME STATIONARY FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST DATABASE THIS UPDATE OTHER
THAN TO UPDATE TEMPERATURE...DEW POINT...AND SKY GRIDS TO REFLECT
LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

THE REGION REMAINS ON N/W PERIPHERY OF DEEP LAYERED RIDGE. THE
BIGGEST QUESTION FOR LATER TODAY IS IF NW ZONES FAR ENOUGH REMOVED
FROM THE RIDGE TO GET ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION. THE GFS/NAM
ARGUE YES...THE CMC/ECMWF ARGUE NO.

A TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION IS LACKING TODAY ACROSS NW ZONES...BUT
EXPECT A FAIRLY STRONG SEABREEZE TO PENETRATE WELL INLAND THIS
AFTERNOON. THE SEABREEZE BOUNDARY COULD SERVE AS A TRIGGER FOR
CONVECTION OVER NW INTERIOR ZONES IF FORECAST CAPE OF 500-1500
J/KG CAPE IS REALIZED (NO CAPE IN ECMWF). SURFACE BASED CAPE HAS
BEGUN TO INCREASE ACROSS ORANGE COUNTY...BUT BEST INSTABILITY AND
LIFT ARE LIKELY TO STAY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF OUR INTERIOR
ZONES. HAVE CONTINUED WITH MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER NW
ZONES...WITH CHANCE POPS W ORANGE COUNTY.

FOR HIGHS TODAY USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 975 TO 850 HPA PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR METEOROLOGICAL ENHANCEMENT OF RIP
CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
CORE OF DEEP LAYERED RIDGE SLIDES SLIGHTLY FARTHER TO THE S/E
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

FOR TONIGHT...THE CMC/ECMWF KEEP THINGS DRY...WITH NO FORCING.
WHILE THE GFS/NAM BRING A WEAK 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE OVER MAINLY
N/W PORTIONS OF THE AREA. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY HAVE CAPPED POPS AT
SLIGHT CHANCE.

GIVEN PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW AND FORECAST DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW
LEVEL INVERSION...EXPECT FOR LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP
TONIGHT...TIMING IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...BUT WOULD EXPECT S SHORE
LOCATIONS TO GO FIRST...AFTER SUNSET...WITH INTERIOR AREAS
CLOUDING UP AROUND/AFTER MIDNIGHT. ANY LOW CLOUDS WILL BE LAST TO
REACH NW ZONES...IF THEY DO AT ALL...NOTING WEAKER IF NOT NON-
EXISTENT LOW LEVEL INVERSION IN BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AT KMGJ/KSWF. IN
ADDITION TO THE STRATUS...HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AS WELL. IF
THE SHOWERS/TSTMS MATERIALIZE...WOULD NOT EXPECT ANY FOG UNTIL
AFTER THEY PASS. AS IS ALWAYS THE CASE WHEN YOU HAVE MARINE
INDUCED STRATUS...IS IT IS NEVER CERTAIN WHETHER YOU WILL GET FOG
AS WELL...SO RESTRICTED FOG TO PATCHY AND AT THIS TIME WILL NOT
FORECAST ANY LOCALLY DENSE FOG...THOUGH CANNOT RULE IT
OUT...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT...USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES. VALUES SHOULD BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

ON WEDNESDAY CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OVER WESTERN ZONES WILL BE AIDED
BY FORMATION OF A LEE/THERMAL TROUGH...PASSING OF A 30-35 KT 950
HPA JET...AND MODEL AVERAGE FORECAST CAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG.
BASED ON THIS HAVE 40-50 POPS OVER NW ZONES BY AFTERNOON...WITH
CHANCE POPS INTO NYC/SW CT AND SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE. AS IS
ALWAYS THE QUESTION THIS TIME OF YEAR...IS HOW LONG DO STORMS STAY
TOGETHER AS THEY HEAD EAST INTO THE MARINE LAYER. WITH BULK
RICHARDSON NUMBER GENERALLY FORECAST TO BE MUCH GREATER THAN
40...WOULD EXPECT MAINLY ISOLATED PULSE STORMS. HOWEVER...IF
THE HIGH END OF MODEL FORECAST CAPE IS REALIZED...THEN SOME
LOCALIZED SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT...WITH THE
BEST CHANCE OVER THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY W OF THE HUDSON RIVER.

FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 975 TO 900
HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A BLEND
OF MAV/ECS/MET GUIDANCE. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESIDUAL CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO EASE THRU THE REGION WED NIGHT.
THE FRONT WILL STILL BE ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND CENTRAL PA AT THIS
POINT PER THE NAM AND GFS. A DECENT RIBBON OF CAPE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT ON THU. THIS INSTABILITY AXIS SHOULD RESIDE FROM ROUGHLY
NORTHEASTERN NJ THRU THE HUDSON VALLEY AND INTO WRN CT. THE
PERSISTENT SWLY SFC FLOW WILL KEEP THE COASTS FAIRLY STABLE. THE
CITY WILL BE IN THE GRADIENT REGION...WITH THE SEA BREEZE
INFLUENCE ATTEMPTING TO STABILIZE THE AREA AS WELL. THE FRONT WILL
BE A FOCUS FOR TSTMS PER THE 00Z GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...THE FRONT
LOOKS TO DISSIPATE AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE COOLER MARITIME INFLUENCED
AIRMASS. AS A RESULT THE BOUNDARY MAY NEVER EVEN MAKE IT TO ERN
AREAS. SLY FLOW DEVELOPS ON FRI AS THE PRES FALLS N OF THE REGION.
THIS FALLING PRES WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONGER COLD
FRONT...WHICH WILL APPROACH ON SAT BEFORE STALLING S OF THE AREA
LATE SUN INTO TUE. GOOD CHANCES FOR CONVECTION SAT. PRECIPITATION TYPE
AND CHANCES WILL TIED TO THE POSITION OF THE FRONT SUN AND MON.
FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL BE FAR ENOUGH S TO KEEP THE
CWA FIRMLY IN THE COLDER AIRMASS WITH EASTERLY WINDS AND RAIN
CHANCES AS OPPOSED TO SHOWERS AND TSTMS. HOWEVER...THIS IS STILL
FAR OUT AND EVEN A FRONTAL POSITION JUST S OF THE CWA COULD ALLOW
FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PERSISTENT OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH VFR
THROUGH TONIGHT. ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE KSWF THIS
AFTERNOON...WHERE THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND EXACT LOCATION IS PRETTY
LOW.

THE CONTINUED S-SW FLOW OF 10-15 KT GUSTING TO 20-25 KT WILL
LOWER THIS EVENING AND WEDNESDAY. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH WITH THE
CATEGORY FORECAST AND MODERATE WITH WINDS. HOWEVER...THE
CONFIDENCE FOR CATEGORY LOWERS LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THERE
WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS/FOG AS WELL AS SOME SHOWERS.

THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING WHERE THE LOWERING OF CATEGORY
COULD START/END 2-3 HRS DIFFERENT FROM FORECAST AND THE CATEGORY
ITSELF COULD BE 1-2 CATEGORIES DIFFERENT FROM OBSERVED AT TIMES.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY BE A FEW KTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY BE A FEW KTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY BE A FEW KTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY BE A FEW KTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY BE A FEW KTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY BE A FEW KTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING SHRA/TSTM...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE NYC METRO
TERMINALS. SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT.
.THURSDAY-SATURDAY...THIS IS A CHANCE OF LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING MVFR OR LOWER STRATUS AND/OR FOG. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHRA/TSTM THU AND SAT. WIND GUSTS 15-20
KT THU AFTN AND SAT AFTN.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WITH CHANCE OF
SHRA/TSTM.
.SUNDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WITH CHANCE OF SHRA/ISOLATED
TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE CONTINUED WITH SCA ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON TO AROUND 25 KT HELPING
TO KEEP SEAS AT AROUND 5 FT. HAVE ALSO ISSUED AN SCA FOR NY HARBOR
AND THE S SHORE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND FROM 16Z TODAY THROUGH 4Z
TONIGHT FOR GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT WITH THE SEABREEZE. ON THE
REMAINDER OF THE WATERS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT..EXPECT GUSTS TO TOP
OUT AT 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF DENSE FOG TO FORM OVER THE
WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHAT FORMS
COULD ALSO JUST END UP BEING AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS. TO SOON TO
TELL...SO WENT WITH PATCHY FOG LOWERING VISIBILITIES TO 1-3NM.

FOR WINDS AND WAVES ON WEDNESDAY...ITS LIKELY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY/TODAY WITH SCA SEAS ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS ALL
DAY...AND GUSTS TO 25 KT ON THE COASTAL OCEAN ZONES/NY HARBOR/S
SHORE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE
IS NOT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH TO EXTEND THE SCA INTO WEDNESDAY AT THIS
TIME.

SCA SEAS REMAIN ON THE OCEAN WED NIGHT THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
THRU THE DAY ON THU. WINDS WILL BE MARGINAL ON THE OCEAN AND S
SHORE BAYS...AND BELOW SCA LEVELS ELSEWHERE. LIGHTER FLOW THU
THRU FRI NIGHT WITH CONDITIONS BELOW SCA LEVELS. WINDS AND SEAS
BUILD ON SAT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY
SUNSET...ESPECIALLY THE OCEAN. AS THE FRONT STALLS S OF THE WATERS
SUN AND MON...NE FLOW WOULD DRIVE SEAS TO 5 FT OR MORE ON THE
OCEAN...WITH WIND SPEEDS IN THE 15-25KT RANGE ALL WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GENERALLY LESS THAN 1/10 OF AN INCH OF BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER ANY STRONGER CONVECTION THAT
FORMS...ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS ANY TRAINING OF STORMS...COULD
LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AND/OR POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT IMPACTS THE AREA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ338-345.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...JMC/MALOIT/DS
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JMC/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...JMC/MALOIT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 261802
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
202 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE TODAY AND INTO TOMORROW.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY...WITH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY HAVING THE HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE...FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK. MADE SOME MINOR
UPDATES TO THE TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
LATEST TRENDS. TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY CLIMBED INTO THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S MOST LOCATIONS...WITH MID 60S ON THE SOUTH
COAST...CAPE AND ISLANDS.

TODAY...

BERMUDA HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. DESCENT AMOUNT OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP CLOUDS AROUND
AS HIGH TEMPS WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S AWAY FROM THE SOUTH
COAST. GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL STREAM THE STABLE MARITIME
AIR ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST OF RI AND MASS...INCLUDING THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS KEEPING TEMPS INTO THE 70S.

OTHERWISE THE FOCUS IS TURNED TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR TODAY. WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PASS NORTH OF
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WHICH COULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS
AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE A LOW CONFIDENCE AS TEMPS ALOFT REMAIN
WARM AND HEIGHTS DROP ONLY SLIGHTLY....LIMITING POTENTIAL AND
COVERAGE. HOWEVER WE DO HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE BUT INSTABILITY
WILL BE MARGINAL AS CLOUDS WILL LIMIT HEATING TODAY...YET WE STILL
COULD SEE CAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG. BELIEVE LOCATIONS WEST TO
THE REGION WILL SEE THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY AS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND MAY SEE JUST A FEW POP-UP SHOWERS. BEST LOCATIONS FOR THE
POTENTIAL WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN CT AND WESTERN MASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...

WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
CONTINUE TO BRING IN HIGHER DEWPOINTS. THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE AND THE
ISLAND AS 60F DEWPOINTS STREAM OVER THE COOLER OCEAN. IN FACT WE
COULD SEE LOCALLY DENSE FOG BUT BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY...HELD
OFF ON DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

ANY LEFT OVER CONVECTION ACROSS NEW YORK WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
MOVE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN A WEAKEN STATE OVERNIGHT. SEVERAL
GUIDANCE MEMBERS SUGGEST THIS WILL OCCUR BUT SPLIT ON WHERE THIS
WILL OCCUR. THE NAM SAYS THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTH COAST WHILE THE GFS/EC SHOWS THAT THE POTENTIAL WILL BE
ACROSS THE MASS PIKE. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY KEPT SLIGHT CHC
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.

TOMORROW...

WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
BE A TAD STRONGER KEEPING TEMPS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST IN THE 70S
WHILE THE INTERIOR WARMS INTO THE MID 80S. SOUTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS
WILL GUST BETWEEN 20-30 KTS.

COULD SEE LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE MORNING HOURS...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD
BREAK DURING THE AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD DOMINATE THE
REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY WORKS IT WAY
EASTWARD. FEEL WEDNESDAY HAS THE BETTER POTENTIAL TO SEE A FEW
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND MODEST
SOUTHERLY FLOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CT AND WESTERN MA. ASIDE FROM THE
ABUNDANT MOISTURE...CAPE VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG
WITH ABOUT 25 KTS OF SHEAR. PWAT VALUES WILL BE ABOUT 1.6 INCHES
COMBINED WITH A DESCENT SOUTHERLY LLJ AND WARM CLOUD PROCESSES PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...ANY THUNDERSTORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
VERY HEAVY RAIN. HAVE ADDED ENHANCED WORDING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL TO
THE FORECAST. COULD SEE SOME STRONG WINDS GUSTS BUT BELIEVE HEAVY
RAIN IS THE MAIN THREAT.

FOG WILL BEGIN TO REDEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTH COAST BY THE EVENING
HOURS LIMITING VISIBILITIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME...AND VERY SUMMER-LIKE. BERMUDA
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE...WITH A DEEP RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST...
SHOULD MEAN PLENTY OF OPPORTUNITIES FOR WARMER WEATHER THIS WEEK.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY GETS CLOSER TO OUR REGION LATE THIS WEEK AND
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH TIMING VARIES SOME AMONGST THE MODELS. WITH A
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE...AND THIS BOUNDARY BECOMING NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE MID-LEVEL FLOW...AM NOT EXPECTING A CLEAN FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WILL FAVOR THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION TIMING FOR NOW...AND
LEAVE THE WINDOW FOR ANY POTENTIAL FRONT RATHER BROAD.

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAY SEE AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP...WHICH COULD BE
LOCALLY DENSE...ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S AND SE COASTS AS DEWPOINTS
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE.

THURSDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHES OUT BUT STILL SOME INSTABILITY
LINGERING WITH SOUPY AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION. INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS ON WED...AND STRONGEST WINDS ARE
FARTHER NORTH...BUT STILL DECENT BY NEW ENGLAND STANDARDS. SO WE
COULD SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS AS MID LAYER STARTS TO COOL A BIT
LENDING TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY. SOMEWHAT LOWER PWATS...AROUND 1.5
INCHES...BUT STILL ENOUGH WITH THE HIGH DEWPOINTS FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL FROM ANY CONVECTION. EXPECTING AREAS OF FOG TO REDEVELOP
ALONG S COASTAL AREAS THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING.

FRIDAY...WHILE ANOTHER BOUNDARY TENDS TO WEAKEN OVER THE REGION...
NOT A WHOLE LOT OF FORCING OVER OUR REGION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
HOWEVER...STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS. ONE
MORE ROUND OF FOG LOOKS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST MAINLY FROM
COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY SOUTHWARD.

SATURDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON THEIR SOLUTIONS AS ANOTHER
FRONT TRIES TO SLIP SE OUT OF SOUTHERN QUEBEC. LOOKS LIKE MORE
DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS INLAND
AREAS.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT LEND
TO LOW CONFIDENCE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. IN ANY EVENT...HAVE MORE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY AS A FRONT LOOKS TO
SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS THE REGION...THEN STALLING NEAR OR JUST OFF THE
SOUTH COAST MONDAY...WITH LOWER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. MAY SEE DRIER
AIR WORK INTO NORTHERN MA DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THROUGH 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. CHANCE OF A TSTM WITH MVFR
VSBYS/CIGS ACROSS CT/PIONEER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. IFR STRATUS
AND FOG WILL INCREASE ACROSS SOUTH COAST LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR IN
AREAS OF FOG ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS. COULD SEE
PASSING SHOWER OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR ALONG THE SOUTH COAST DURING
THE MORNING SHOULD PUSH OFFSHORE. ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE INTERIOR... DROPPING TO MVFR WITHIN ANY -SHRA/-TSRA THAT
DEVELOPS. EXPECT SW WINDS TO GUST UP TO 20-25 KT AT TIMES MAINLY
ACROSS RI/SE MA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO
IFR ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS AS MARITIME FOG AND
STRATUS ROLLS BACK IN.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. COULD SEE CONDITIONS DROP
TO MVFR WITHIN A POP-UP THUNDERSTORM TODAY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...EXPECT CHANCE FOR -SHRA/TSRA WITH LOCAL
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS. WILL ALSO SEE AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP EACH LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PERIOD WITH IFR-LIFR VSBYS.

SATURDAY...PATCHY FOG EARLY SAT MORNING WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE. SCT SHRA/TSRA SAT THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH LOCAL
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY...S-SW WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25 KT AT TIMES SAT AFTERNOON/
EVENING...MAINLY ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS MAY LINGERING THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD
END SUN NIGHT. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

10 AM UPDATE...INCREASED WIND GUSTS BASED ON MARINE OBSERVATIONS.
THIS RESULTED IN THE NEED FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ON BLOCK
ISLAND SOUND AND MASSACHUSETTS BAY AND IPSWICH BAY SO HAVE
EXPANDED THE SCA ACCORDINGLY.

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
HELP BUILD SEAS AND SWELL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS BY TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW. OTHERWISE EXPANDED THE SCA FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS AS
GUSTS WILL REACH 25KTS DURING THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...AREAS
OF FOG ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP TONIGHT...REDUCING VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

S-SW WINDS REMAIN PERSISTENT WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KT...
MAINLY THU INTO THU NIGHT. SEAS LINGERING AT AROUND 5 FT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS THROUGH THU...THEN SHOULD SUBSIDE. VSBYS
REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DENSE OFFSHORE BOTH THU AND FRI
NIGHTS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...BELK/DUNTEN/RLG
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/RLG
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 261802
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
202 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE TODAY AND INTO TOMORROW.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY...WITH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY HAVING THE HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE...FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK. MADE SOME MINOR
UPDATES TO THE TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
LATEST TRENDS. TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY CLIMBED INTO THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S MOST LOCATIONS...WITH MID 60S ON THE SOUTH
COAST...CAPE AND ISLANDS.

TODAY...

BERMUDA HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. DESCENT AMOUNT OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP CLOUDS AROUND
AS HIGH TEMPS WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S AWAY FROM THE SOUTH
COAST. GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL STREAM THE STABLE MARITIME
AIR ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST OF RI AND MASS...INCLUDING THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS KEEPING TEMPS INTO THE 70S.

OTHERWISE THE FOCUS IS TURNED TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR TODAY. WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PASS NORTH OF
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WHICH COULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS
AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE A LOW CONFIDENCE AS TEMPS ALOFT REMAIN
WARM AND HEIGHTS DROP ONLY SLIGHTLY....LIMITING POTENTIAL AND
COVERAGE. HOWEVER WE DO HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE BUT INSTABILITY
WILL BE MARGINAL AS CLOUDS WILL LIMIT HEATING TODAY...YET WE STILL
COULD SEE CAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG. BELIEVE LOCATIONS WEST TO
THE REGION WILL SEE THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY AS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND MAY SEE JUST A FEW POP-UP SHOWERS. BEST LOCATIONS FOR THE
POTENTIAL WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN CT AND WESTERN MASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...

WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
CONTINUE TO BRING IN HIGHER DEWPOINTS. THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE AND THE
ISLAND AS 60F DEWPOINTS STREAM OVER THE COOLER OCEAN. IN FACT WE
COULD SEE LOCALLY DENSE FOG BUT BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY...HELD
OFF ON DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

ANY LEFT OVER CONVECTION ACROSS NEW YORK WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
MOVE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN A WEAKEN STATE OVERNIGHT. SEVERAL
GUIDANCE MEMBERS SUGGEST THIS WILL OCCUR BUT SPLIT ON WHERE THIS
WILL OCCUR. THE NAM SAYS THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTH COAST WHILE THE GFS/EC SHOWS THAT THE POTENTIAL WILL BE
ACROSS THE MASS PIKE. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY KEPT SLIGHT CHC
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.

TOMORROW...

WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
BE A TAD STRONGER KEEPING TEMPS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST IN THE 70S
WHILE THE INTERIOR WARMS INTO THE MID 80S. SOUTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS
WILL GUST BETWEEN 20-30 KTS.

COULD SEE LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE MORNING HOURS...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD
BREAK DURING THE AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD DOMINATE THE
REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY WORKS IT WAY
EASTWARD. FEEL WEDNESDAY HAS THE BETTER POTENTIAL TO SEE A FEW
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND MODEST
SOUTHERLY FLOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CT AND WESTERN MA. ASIDE FROM THE
ABUNDANT MOISTURE...CAPE VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG
WITH ABOUT 25 KTS OF SHEAR. PWAT VALUES WILL BE ABOUT 1.6 INCHES
COMBINED WITH A DESCENT SOUTHERLY LLJ AND WARM CLOUD PROCESSES PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...ANY THUNDERSTORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
VERY HEAVY RAIN. HAVE ADDED ENHANCED WORDING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL TO
THE FORECAST. COULD SEE SOME STRONG WINDS GUSTS BUT BELIEVE HEAVY
RAIN IS THE MAIN THREAT.

FOG WILL BEGIN TO REDEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTH COAST BY THE EVENING
HOURS LIMITING VISIBILITIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME...AND VERY SUMMER-LIKE. BERMUDA
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE...WITH A DEEP RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST...
SHOULD MEAN PLENTY OF OPPORTUNITIES FOR WARMER WEATHER THIS WEEK.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY GETS CLOSER TO OUR REGION LATE THIS WEEK AND
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH TIMING VARIES SOME AMONGST THE MODELS. WITH A
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE...AND THIS BOUNDARY BECOMING NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE MID-LEVEL FLOW...AM NOT EXPECTING A CLEAN FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WILL FAVOR THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION TIMING FOR NOW...AND
LEAVE THE WINDOW FOR ANY POTENTIAL FRONT RATHER BROAD.

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAY SEE AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP...WHICH COULD BE
LOCALLY DENSE...ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S AND SE COASTS AS DEWPOINTS
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE.

THURSDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHES OUT BUT STILL SOME INSTABILITY
LINGERING WITH SOUPY AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION. INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS ON WED...AND STRONGEST WINDS ARE
FARTHER NORTH...BUT STILL DECENT BY NEW ENGLAND STANDARDS. SO WE
COULD SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS AS MID LAYER STARTS TO COOL A BIT
LENDING TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY. SOMEWHAT LOWER PWATS...AROUND 1.5
INCHES...BUT STILL ENOUGH WITH THE HIGH DEWPOINTS FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL FROM ANY CONVECTION. EXPECTING AREAS OF FOG TO REDEVELOP
ALONG S COASTAL AREAS THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING.

FRIDAY...WHILE ANOTHER BOUNDARY TENDS TO WEAKEN OVER THE REGION...
NOT A WHOLE LOT OF FORCING OVER OUR REGION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
HOWEVER...STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS. ONE
MORE ROUND OF FOG LOOKS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST MAINLY FROM
COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY SOUTHWARD.

SATURDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON THEIR SOLUTIONS AS ANOTHER
FRONT TRIES TO SLIP SE OUT OF SOUTHERN QUEBEC. LOOKS LIKE MORE
DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS INLAND
AREAS.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT LEND
TO LOW CONFIDENCE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. IN ANY EVENT...HAVE MORE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY AS A FRONT LOOKS TO
SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS THE REGION...THEN STALLING NEAR OR JUST OFF THE
SOUTH COAST MONDAY...WITH LOWER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. MAY SEE DRIER
AIR WORK INTO NORTHERN MA DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THROUGH 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. CHANCE OF A TSTM WITH MVFR
VSBYS/CIGS ACROSS CT/PIONEER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. IFR STRATUS
AND FOG WILL INCREASE ACROSS SOUTH COAST LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR IN
AREAS OF FOG ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS. COULD SEE
PASSING SHOWER OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR ALONG THE SOUTH COAST DURING
THE MORNING SHOULD PUSH OFFSHORE. ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE INTERIOR... DROPPING TO MVFR WITHIN ANY -SHRA/-TSRA THAT
DEVELOPS. EXPECT SW WINDS TO GUST UP TO 20-25 KT AT TIMES MAINLY
ACROSS RI/SE MA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO
IFR ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS AS MARITIME FOG AND
STRATUS ROLLS BACK IN.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. COULD SEE CONDITIONS DROP
TO MVFR WITHIN A POP-UP THUNDERSTORM TODAY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...EXPECT CHANCE FOR -SHRA/TSRA WITH LOCAL
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS. WILL ALSO SEE AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP EACH LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PERIOD WITH IFR-LIFR VSBYS.

SATURDAY...PATCHY FOG EARLY SAT MORNING WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE. SCT SHRA/TSRA SAT THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH LOCAL
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY...S-SW WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25 KT AT TIMES SAT AFTERNOON/
EVENING...MAINLY ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS MAY LINGERING THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD
END SUN NIGHT. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

10 AM UPDATE...INCREASED WIND GUSTS BASED ON MARINE OBSERVATIONS.
THIS RESULTED IN THE NEED FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ON BLOCK
ISLAND SOUND AND MASSACHUSETTS BAY AND IPSWICH BAY SO HAVE
EXPANDED THE SCA ACCORDINGLY.

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
HELP BUILD SEAS AND SWELL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS BY TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW. OTHERWISE EXPANDED THE SCA FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS AS
GUSTS WILL REACH 25KTS DURING THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...AREAS
OF FOG ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP TONIGHT...REDUCING VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

S-SW WINDS REMAIN PERSISTENT WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KT...
MAINLY THU INTO THU NIGHT. SEAS LINGERING AT AROUND 5 FT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS THROUGH THU...THEN SHOULD SUBSIDE. VSBYS
REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DENSE OFFSHORE BOTH THU AND FRI
NIGHTS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...BELK/DUNTEN/RLG
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/RLG
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KALY 261721
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
121 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING THROUGH MID WEEK. SOME
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT...REGIONAL RADAR SHOW A SCT-BKN LINE OF
CONVECTION EVOLVING FROM PORTIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I90 AND
EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY AND INTO WESTERN
PA. PER THE HRRR...THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION REMAINS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I90. LATEST SPC HOURLY MESOSCALE ANALYSIS AND LOCAL LAPS
ANALYSIS SUGGEST SBCAPES HAVE RISEN TO AROUND 1K J/KG. H2O VAPOR
LOOP SHOWS UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE OVER LAKE ERIE IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN YET COULD BE ENOUGH FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENTS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SO FOR THIS UPDATE...MINOR TWEAKS OF
THE TEMPS AND SKY COVERAGE ALONG WITH ALIGNMENTS OF POPS/WX PER
LATEST TRENDS AND REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS.

AS FOR MAX TEMPS...WE STILL ANTICIPATE MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE MID
TO UPPER 80S IN MOST VALLEY AREAS...AND UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON AS BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF
THIS MORNING/S SHORTWAVE PASSAGE AND BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF
UPSTREAM ACTIVITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
BETTER AND MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR CONVECTION EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND HEIGHTS WILL FALL SOME ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER
LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AS THE RIGHT-REAR
QUADRANT OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL BE LOCATED OVER
EASTERN CANADA AND MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST. ACROSS THE REGION
WE WILL HAVE DEW POINTS IN THE 60S AND MODEST SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP
LAYER SHEAR SO STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER CONTINUES TO KEEP OUR AREA UNDER MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER...HOWEVER DOES NOTE THAT IF GREATER
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED THEN AN UPGRADE TO A SLIGHT RISK MAY BE
NEEDED. CONTINUE TO HAVE MENTION OF STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE FOR
WEDNESDAY IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND ADDED GUSTY WINDS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A COUPLE/FEW DEGREES LOWER WEDNESDAY
THAN THURSDAY DUE TO MORE CLOUD COVER AND THE CONVECTION...MID
70S TO MID 80S.

THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS EASTWARD INTO THE
RIDGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY SHEARING OUT WITH TIME. ALONG
WITH TROUGH A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO AND ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL
PERSIST UNTIL THE SHORT WAVE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND BOUNDARY
SHIFTS THROUGH BUT DECREASE IN TIME AS THE FEATURES WEAKEN. IT
WILL NOT BE AS HOT OR HUMID THURSDAY HOWEVER ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE...HIGHS LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5+ INCHES STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST OPENS WITH HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDING
IN OVER ERN NY AND NEW ENGLAND IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THE GFS/ECMWF/CAN GGEM HAVE TRENDED DRIER FOR THIS DAY.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY STALL CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE SRN NEW ENGLAND
AND NJ COAST FOR SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR. A SLIGHT TO LOW
CHC THREAT WAS KEPT IN FOR THE AFTERNOON TIME FRAME FOR THE FCST
AREA WITH LOW CHANCE POPS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. H850 TEMPS
WILL STILL BE IN THE +13C TO +15C RANGE WITH MEAN UPPER RIDING
OVER THE REGION. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE
VALLEYS...AND M70S TO NEAR 80F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. ANY SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL
HEATING. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60-65F RANGE IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND M50S TO 60F OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

SAT-SUN...A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS
CNTRL CANADA...THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION. BROAD
SW FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE EAST
COAST WILL KEEP THE HUMID AIR MASS AROUND FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND.  THE COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING ON SATURDAY WITH AN
UNSTABLE AIR MASS AHEAD OF IT...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE.  SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE
STRONG DEPENDING ON THE EXACT AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AVAILABLE.  THE
LATEST GFS HAS SFC DEWPTS WELL INTO THE 60S WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-
2000 J/KG.  PWATS INCREASE BACK TO 1.33-1.75 INCHES OVER THE FCST
AREA.  SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE LIKELY WITH ANY CONVECTION.  WE
EXPECT THE SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM TO CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN
THE MID AND U80S OVER THE VALLEY AREAS...AND M70S TO L80S IN THE
MTNS.  MUCH COOLER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLING NEAR THE REGION.  OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND SOME
ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER ON THE 2ND HALF OF THE WEEKEND NOW.
HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S TO L70S OVER THE FCST AREA.

SUN NIGHT TO MONDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE DIVERGES ON WHERE
THE FRONT GOES TO START NEXT WEEK.  THE ECMWF PUSHES THE FRONT SOUTH
OF THE FCST AREA WITH A 1032 HPA SFC ANTICYCLONE RIDGING IN FROM SRN
QUEBEC.  COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WOULD PREVAIL.  THE WPC GUIDANCE
IS STARTING TO LEAN TOWARDS THE ECMWF SCENARIO WITH THE SFC RIDGE
WINNING OUT...AND THE FRONT STALLING NEAR DC AND THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION.  THE GFS HAS A SOAKER FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK WITH A
WAVE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT...AND A STRONG LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE
BTWN THE WAVE AND SFC HIGH.  OVERALL...WE KEPT A LOW CHC OF SHOWERS
IN FOR MOST OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...AND THEN WENT LOW CHC SOUTH
OF THE CAPITAWARM TEMPERATURES AND INCREASINGLY HUMID CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST FOR THIS WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
ESPECIALLY MID WEEK.

RH VALUES TONIGHT RECOVER BETWEEN 70 AND 90 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN
EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 40 AND 60 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
VALUES BETWEEN 50 AND 70 PERCENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.L REGION ON MONDAY...AND SLIGHT CHC TO THE
NORTH AND WEST. THIS FCST WOULD NEED FINE TUNING IF THE GFS IS
RIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE RUNNING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TO OPEN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL MAINTAIN A WARM
AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING...ESP FOR KPOU/KALB AND KPSF.

A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THROUGH SUNSET...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. HOWEVER...AS
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 20Z-22Z/TUE...AND MAY LINGER UNTIL
ROUGHLY 01Z-03Z/WED. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE AT KALB/KPOU AND KPSF.
THERE COULD BE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITHIN ANY
HEAVIER DOWNPOURS.

AFTER SUNSET...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD WEAKEN.
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAINFALL OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...THERE COULD BE AREAS OF MVFR OR BORDERLINE IFR CIGS/VSBYS
LATER TONIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT KPSF.

ON WEDNESDAY...AFTER ANY PATCHY LOW CLOUDS/FOG BURN OFF...EXPECT
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z/WED. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP AFTER 16Z/WED...WITH INCREASING CHANCES THEREAFTER.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 8-12 KT...WITH
GUSTS OF 15-22 KT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AT MAINLY 5-10 KT. ON WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL BE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 8-12 KT...WITH GUSTS OF 15-22 KT
ONCE AGAIN BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE STRONGER...AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION IN AND NEAR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WED TO WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

FRIDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

MINIMUM RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE LOWER 40S TO LOWER
50S...WITH MINIMUMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS IN THE 50S.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED MODERATE
DROUGHT AT THIS TIME.

WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE BETTER AND MORE
WIDESPREAD CHANCES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INT0 THE EVENING.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5+ INCHES ARE EXPECTED SO STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/KL/BGM
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 261721
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
121 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING THROUGH MID WEEK. SOME
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT...REGIONAL RADAR SHOW A SCT-BKN LINE OF
CONVECTION EVOLVING FROM PORTIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I90 AND
EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY AND INTO WESTERN
PA. PER THE HRRR...THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION REMAINS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I90. LATEST SPC HOURLY MESOSCALE ANALYSIS AND LOCAL LAPS
ANALYSIS SUGGEST SBCAPES HAVE RISEN TO AROUND 1K J/KG. H2O VAPOR
LOOP SHOWS UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE OVER LAKE ERIE IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN YET COULD BE ENOUGH FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENTS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SO FOR THIS UPDATE...MINOR TWEAKS OF
THE TEMPS AND SKY COVERAGE ALONG WITH ALIGNMENTS OF POPS/WX PER
LATEST TRENDS AND REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS.

AS FOR MAX TEMPS...WE STILL ANTICIPATE MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE MID
TO UPPER 80S IN MOST VALLEY AREAS...AND UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON AS BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF
THIS MORNING/S SHORTWAVE PASSAGE AND BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF
UPSTREAM ACTIVITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
BETTER AND MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR CONVECTION EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND HEIGHTS WILL FALL SOME ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER
LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AS THE RIGHT-REAR
QUADRANT OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL BE LOCATED OVER
EASTERN CANADA AND MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST. ACROSS THE REGION
WE WILL HAVE DEW POINTS IN THE 60S AND MODEST SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP
LAYER SHEAR SO STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER CONTINUES TO KEEP OUR AREA UNDER MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER...HOWEVER DOES NOTE THAT IF GREATER
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED THEN AN UPGRADE TO A SLIGHT RISK MAY BE
NEEDED. CONTINUE TO HAVE MENTION OF STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE FOR
WEDNESDAY IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND ADDED GUSTY WINDS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A COUPLE/FEW DEGREES LOWER WEDNESDAY
THAN THURSDAY DUE TO MORE CLOUD COVER AND THE CONVECTION...MID
70S TO MID 80S.

THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS EASTWARD INTO THE
RIDGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY SHEARING OUT WITH TIME. ALONG
WITH TROUGH A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO AND ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL
PERSIST UNTIL THE SHORT WAVE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND BOUNDARY
SHIFTS THROUGH BUT DECREASE IN TIME AS THE FEATURES WEAKEN. IT
WILL NOT BE AS HOT OR HUMID THURSDAY HOWEVER ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE...HIGHS LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5+ INCHES STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST OPENS WITH HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDING
IN OVER ERN NY AND NEW ENGLAND IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THE GFS/ECMWF/CAN GGEM HAVE TRENDED DRIER FOR THIS DAY.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY STALL CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE SRN NEW ENGLAND
AND NJ COAST FOR SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR. A SLIGHT TO LOW
CHC THREAT WAS KEPT IN FOR THE AFTERNOON TIME FRAME FOR THE FCST
AREA WITH LOW CHANCE POPS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. H850 TEMPS
WILL STILL BE IN THE +13C TO +15C RANGE WITH MEAN UPPER RIDING
OVER THE REGION. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE
VALLEYS...AND M70S TO NEAR 80F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. ANY SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL
HEATING. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60-65F RANGE IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND M50S TO 60F OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

SAT-SUN...A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS
CNTRL CANADA...THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION. BROAD
SW FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE EAST
COAST WILL KEEP THE HUMID AIR MASS AROUND FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND.  THE COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING ON SATURDAY WITH AN
UNSTABLE AIR MASS AHEAD OF IT...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE.  SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE
STRONG DEPENDING ON THE EXACT AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AVAILABLE.  THE
LATEST GFS HAS SFC DEWPTS WELL INTO THE 60S WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-
2000 J/KG.  PWATS INCREASE BACK TO 1.33-1.75 INCHES OVER THE FCST
AREA.  SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE LIKELY WITH ANY CONVECTION.  WE
EXPECT THE SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM TO CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN
THE MID AND U80S OVER THE VALLEY AREAS...AND M70S TO L80S IN THE
MTNS.  MUCH COOLER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLING NEAR THE REGION.  OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND SOME
ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER ON THE 2ND HALF OF THE WEEKEND NOW.
HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S TO L70S OVER THE FCST AREA.

SUN NIGHT TO MONDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE DIVERGES ON WHERE
THE FRONT GOES TO START NEXT WEEK.  THE ECMWF PUSHES THE FRONT SOUTH
OF THE FCST AREA WITH A 1032 HPA SFC ANTICYCLONE RIDGING IN FROM SRN
QUEBEC.  COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WOULD PREVAIL.  THE WPC GUIDANCE
IS STARTING TO LEAN TOWARDS THE ECMWF SCENARIO WITH THE SFC RIDGE
WINNING OUT...AND THE FRONT STALLING NEAR DC AND THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION.  THE GFS HAS A SOAKER FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK WITH A
WAVE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT...AND A STRONG LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE
BTWN THE WAVE AND SFC HIGH.  OVERALL...WE KEPT A LOW CHC OF SHOWERS
IN FOR MOST OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...AND THEN WENT LOW CHC SOUTH
OF THE CAPITAWARM TEMPERATURES AND INCREASINGLY HUMID CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST FOR THIS WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
ESPECIALLY MID WEEK.

RH VALUES TONIGHT RECOVER BETWEEN 70 AND 90 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN
EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 40 AND 60 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
VALUES BETWEEN 50 AND 70 PERCENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.L REGION ON MONDAY...AND SLIGHT CHC TO THE
NORTH AND WEST. THIS FCST WOULD NEED FINE TUNING IF THE GFS IS
RIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE RUNNING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TO OPEN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL MAINTAIN A WARM
AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING...ESP FOR KPOU/KALB AND KPSF.

A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THROUGH SUNSET...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. HOWEVER...AS
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 20Z-22Z/TUE...AND MAY LINGER UNTIL
ROUGHLY 01Z-03Z/WED. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE AT KALB/KPOU AND KPSF.
THERE COULD BE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITHIN ANY
HEAVIER DOWNPOURS.

AFTER SUNSET...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD WEAKEN.
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAINFALL OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...THERE COULD BE AREAS OF MVFR OR BORDERLINE IFR CIGS/VSBYS
LATER TONIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT KPSF.

ON WEDNESDAY...AFTER ANY PATCHY LOW CLOUDS/FOG BURN OFF...EXPECT
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z/WED. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP AFTER 16Z/WED...WITH INCREASING CHANCES THEREAFTER.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 8-12 KT...WITH
GUSTS OF 15-22 KT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AT MAINLY 5-10 KT. ON WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL BE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 8-12 KT...WITH GUSTS OF 15-22 KT
ONCE AGAIN BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE STRONGER...AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION IN AND NEAR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WED TO WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

FRIDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

MINIMUM RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE LOWER 40S TO LOWER
50S...WITH MINIMUMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS IN THE 50S.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED MODERATE
DROUGHT AT THIS TIME.

WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE BETTER AND MORE
WIDESPREAD CHANCES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INT0 THE EVENING.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5+ INCHES ARE EXPECTED SO STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/KL/BGM
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA



000
FXUS61 KALY 261721
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
121 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING THROUGH MID WEEK. SOME
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT...REGIONAL RADAR SHOW A SCT-BKN LINE OF
CONVECTION EVOLVING FROM PORTIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I90 AND
EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY AND INTO WESTERN
PA. PER THE HRRR...THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION REMAINS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I90. LATEST SPC HOURLY MESOSCALE ANALYSIS AND LOCAL LAPS
ANALYSIS SUGGEST SBCAPES HAVE RISEN TO AROUND 1K J/KG. H2O VAPOR
LOOP SHOWS UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE OVER LAKE ERIE IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN YET COULD BE ENOUGH FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENTS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SO FOR THIS UPDATE...MINOR TWEAKS OF
THE TEMPS AND SKY COVERAGE ALONG WITH ALIGNMENTS OF POPS/WX PER
LATEST TRENDS AND REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS.

AS FOR MAX TEMPS...WE STILL ANTICIPATE MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE MID
TO UPPER 80S IN MOST VALLEY AREAS...AND UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON AS BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF
THIS MORNING/S SHORTWAVE PASSAGE AND BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF
UPSTREAM ACTIVITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
BETTER AND MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR CONVECTION EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND HEIGHTS WILL FALL SOME ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER
LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AS THE RIGHT-REAR
QUADRANT OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL BE LOCATED OVER
EASTERN CANADA AND MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST. ACROSS THE REGION
WE WILL HAVE DEW POINTS IN THE 60S AND MODEST SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP
LAYER SHEAR SO STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER CONTINUES TO KEEP OUR AREA UNDER MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER...HOWEVER DOES NOTE THAT IF GREATER
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED THEN AN UPGRADE TO A SLIGHT RISK MAY BE
NEEDED. CONTINUE TO HAVE MENTION OF STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE FOR
WEDNESDAY IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND ADDED GUSTY WINDS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A COUPLE/FEW DEGREES LOWER WEDNESDAY
THAN THURSDAY DUE TO MORE CLOUD COVER AND THE CONVECTION...MID
70S TO MID 80S.

THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS EASTWARD INTO THE
RIDGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY SHEARING OUT WITH TIME. ALONG
WITH TROUGH A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO AND ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL
PERSIST UNTIL THE SHORT WAVE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND BOUNDARY
SHIFTS THROUGH BUT DECREASE IN TIME AS THE FEATURES WEAKEN. IT
WILL NOT BE AS HOT OR HUMID THURSDAY HOWEVER ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE...HIGHS LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5+ INCHES STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST OPENS WITH HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDING
IN OVER ERN NY AND NEW ENGLAND IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THE GFS/ECMWF/CAN GGEM HAVE TRENDED DRIER FOR THIS DAY.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY STALL CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE SRN NEW ENGLAND
AND NJ COAST FOR SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR. A SLIGHT TO LOW
CHC THREAT WAS KEPT IN FOR THE AFTERNOON TIME FRAME FOR THE FCST
AREA WITH LOW CHANCE POPS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. H850 TEMPS
WILL STILL BE IN THE +13C TO +15C RANGE WITH MEAN UPPER RIDING
OVER THE REGION. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE
VALLEYS...AND M70S TO NEAR 80F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. ANY SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL
HEATING. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60-65F RANGE IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND M50S TO 60F OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

SAT-SUN...A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS
CNTRL CANADA...THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION. BROAD
SW FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE EAST
COAST WILL KEEP THE HUMID AIR MASS AROUND FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND.  THE COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING ON SATURDAY WITH AN
UNSTABLE AIR MASS AHEAD OF IT...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE.  SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE
STRONG DEPENDING ON THE EXACT AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AVAILABLE.  THE
LATEST GFS HAS SFC DEWPTS WELL INTO THE 60S WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-
2000 J/KG.  PWATS INCREASE BACK TO 1.33-1.75 INCHES OVER THE FCST
AREA.  SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE LIKELY WITH ANY CONVECTION.  WE
EXPECT THE SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM TO CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN
THE MID AND U80S OVER THE VALLEY AREAS...AND M70S TO L80S IN THE
MTNS.  MUCH COOLER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLING NEAR THE REGION.  OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND SOME
ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER ON THE 2ND HALF OF THE WEEKEND NOW.
HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S TO L70S OVER THE FCST AREA.

SUN NIGHT TO MONDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE DIVERGES ON WHERE
THE FRONT GOES TO START NEXT WEEK.  THE ECMWF PUSHES THE FRONT SOUTH
OF THE FCST AREA WITH A 1032 HPA SFC ANTICYCLONE RIDGING IN FROM SRN
QUEBEC.  COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WOULD PREVAIL.  THE WPC GUIDANCE
IS STARTING TO LEAN TOWARDS THE ECMWF SCENARIO WITH THE SFC RIDGE
WINNING OUT...AND THE FRONT STALLING NEAR DC AND THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION.  THE GFS HAS A SOAKER FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK WITH A
WAVE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT...AND A STRONG LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE
BTWN THE WAVE AND SFC HIGH.  OVERALL...WE KEPT A LOW CHC OF SHOWERS
IN FOR MOST OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...AND THEN WENT LOW CHC SOUTH
OF THE CAPITAWARM TEMPERATURES AND INCREASINGLY HUMID CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST FOR THIS WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
ESPECIALLY MID WEEK.

RH VALUES TONIGHT RECOVER BETWEEN 70 AND 90 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN
EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 40 AND 60 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
VALUES BETWEEN 50 AND 70 PERCENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.L REGION ON MONDAY...AND SLIGHT CHC TO THE
NORTH AND WEST. THIS FCST WOULD NEED FINE TUNING IF THE GFS IS
RIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE RUNNING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TO OPEN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL MAINTAIN A WARM
AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING...ESP FOR KPOU/KALB AND KPSF.

A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THROUGH SUNSET...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. HOWEVER...AS
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 20Z-22Z/TUE...AND MAY LINGER UNTIL
ROUGHLY 01Z-03Z/WED. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE AT KALB/KPOU AND KPSF.
THERE COULD BE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITHIN ANY
HEAVIER DOWNPOURS.

AFTER SUNSET...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD WEAKEN.
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAINFALL OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...THERE COULD BE AREAS OF MVFR OR BORDERLINE IFR CIGS/VSBYS
LATER TONIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT KPSF.

ON WEDNESDAY...AFTER ANY PATCHY LOW CLOUDS/FOG BURN OFF...EXPECT
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z/WED. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP AFTER 16Z/WED...WITH INCREASING CHANCES THEREAFTER.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 8-12 KT...WITH
GUSTS OF 15-22 KT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AT MAINLY 5-10 KT. ON WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL BE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 8-12 KT...WITH GUSTS OF 15-22 KT
ONCE AGAIN BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE STRONGER...AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION IN AND NEAR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WED TO WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

FRIDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

MINIMUM RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE LOWER 40S TO LOWER
50S...WITH MINIMUMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS IN THE 50S.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED MODERATE
DROUGHT AT THIS TIME.

WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE BETTER AND MORE
WIDESPREAD CHANCES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INT0 THE EVENING.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5+ INCHES ARE EXPECTED SO STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/KL/BGM
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA




000
FXUS61 KOKX 261624
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1224 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS ANCHORED WELL OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND REACH THE TRI-STATE REGION THURSDAY. THE
FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH ON SATURDAY...AND SAG SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
THE FRONT WILL THEN BECOME STATIONARY FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST DATABASE THIS UPDATE OTHER
THAN TO UPDATE TEMPERATURE...DEW POINT...AND SKY GRIDS TO REFLECT
LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

THE REGION REMAINS ON N/W PERIPHERY OF DEEP LAYERED RIDGE. THE
BIGGEST QUESTION FOR LATER TODAY IS IF NW ZONES FAR ENOUGH REMOVED
FROM THE RIDGE TO GET ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION. THE GFS/NAM
ARGUE YES...THE CMC/ECMWF ARGUE NO.

A TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION IS LACKING TODAY ACROSS NW ZONES...BUT
EXPECT A FAIRLY STRONG SEABREEZE TO PENETRATE WELL INLAND THIS
AFTERNOON. THE SEABREEZE BOUNDARY COULD SERVE AS A TRIGGER FOR
CONVECTION OVER NW INTERIOR ZONES IF FORECAST CAPE OF 500-1500
J/KG CAPE IS REALIZED (NO CAPE IN ECMWF). SURFACE BASED CAPE HAS
BEGUN TO INCREASE ACROSS ORANGE COUNTY...BUT BEST INSTABILITY AND
LIFT ARE LIKELY TO STAY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF OUR INTERIOR
ZONES. HAVE CONTINUED WITH MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER NW
ZONES...WITH CHANCE POPS W ORANGE COUNTY.

FOR HIGHS TODAY USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 975 TO 850 HPA PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR METEOROLOGICAL ENHANCEMENT OF RIP
CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
CORE OF DEEP LAYERED RIDGE SLIDES SLIGHTLY FARTHER TO THE S/E
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

FOR TONIGHT...THE CMC/ECMWF KEEP THINGS DRY...WITH NO FORCING.
WHILE THE GFS/NAM BRING A WEAK 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE OVER MAINLY
N/W PORTIONS OF THE AREA. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY HAVE CAPPED POPS AT
SLIGHT CHANCE.

GIVEN PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW AND FORECAST DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW
LEVEL INVERSION...EXPECT FOR LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP
TONIGHT...TIMING IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...BUT WOULD EXPECT S SHORE
LOCATIONS TO GO FIRST...AFTER SUNSET...WITH INTERIOR AREAS
CLOUDING UP AROUND/AFTER MIDNIGHT. ANY LOW CLOUDS WILL BE LAST TO
REACH NW ZONES...IF THEY DO AT ALL...NOTING WEAKER IF NOT NON-
EXISTENT LOW LEVEL INVERSION IN BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AT KMGJ/KSWF. IN
ADDITION TO THE STRATUS...HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AS WELL. IF
THE SHOWERS/TSTMS MATERIALIZE...WOULD NOT EXPECT ANY FOG UNTIL
AFTER THEY PASS. AS IS ALWAYS THE CASE WHEN YOU HAVE MARINE
INDUCED STRATUS...IS IT IS NEVER CERTAIN WHETHER YOU WILL GET FOG
AS WELL...SO RESTRICTED FOG TO PATCHY AND AT THIS TIME WILL NOT
FORECAST ANY LOCALLY DENSE FOG...THOUGH CANNOT RULE IT
OUT...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT...USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES. VALUES SHOULD BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

ON WEDNESDAY CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OVER WESTERN ZONES WILL BE AIDED
BY FORMATION OF A LEE/THERMAL TROUGH...PASSING OF A 30-35 KT 950
HPA JET...AND MODEL AVERAGE FORECAST CAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG.
BASED ON THIS HAVE 40-50 POPS OVER NW ZONES BY AFTERNOON...WITH
CHANCE POPS INTO NYC/SW CT AND SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE. AS IS
ALWAYS THE QUESTION THIS TIME OF YEAR...IS HOW LONG DO STORMS STAY
TOGETHER AS THEY HEAD EAST INTO THE MARINE LAYER. WITH BULK
RICHARDSON NUMBER GENERALLY FORECAST TO BE MUCH GREATER THAN
40...WOULD EXPECT MAINLY ISOLATED PULSE STORMS. HOWEVER...IF
THE HIGH END OF MODEL FORECAST CAPE IS REALIZED...THEN SOME
LOCALIZED SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT...WITH THE
BEST CHANCE OVER THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY W OF THE HUDSON RIVER.

FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 975 TO 900
HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A BLEND
OF MAV/ECS/MET GUIDANCE. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESIDUAL CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO EASE THRU THE REGION WED NIGHT.
THE FRONT WILL STILL BE ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND CENTRAL PA AT THIS
POINT PER THE NAM AND GFS. A DECENT RIBBON OF CAPE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT ON THU. THIS INSTABILITY AXIS SHOULD RESIDE FROM ROUGHLY
NORTHEASTERN NJ THRU THE HUDSON VALLEY AND INTO WRN CT. THE
PERSISTENT SWLY SFC FLOW WILL KEEP THE COASTS FAIRLY STABLE. THE
CITY WILL BE IN THE GRADIENT REGION...WITH THE SEA BREEZE
INFLUENCE ATTEMPTING TO STABILIZE THE AREA AS WELL. THE FRONT WILL
BE A FOCUS FOR TSTMS PER THE 00Z GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...THE FRONT
LOOKS TO DISSIPATE AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE COOLER MARITIME INFLUENCED
AIRMASS. AS A RESULT THE BOUNDARY MAY NEVER EVEN MAKE IT TO ERN
AREAS. SLY FLOW DEVELOPS ON FRI AS THE PRES FALLS N OF THE REGION.
THIS FALLING PRES WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONGER COLD
FRONT...WHICH WILL APPROACH ON SAT BEFORE STALLING S OF THE AREA
LATE SUN INTO TUE. GOOD CHANCES FOR CONVECTION SAT. PRECIPITATION TYPE
AND CHANCES WILL TIED TO THE POSITION OF THE FRONT SUN AND MON.
FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL BE FAR ENOUGH S TO KEEP THE
CWA FIRMLY IN THE COLDER AIRMASS WITH EASTERLY WINDS AND RAIN
CHANCES AS OPPOSED TO SHOWERS AND TSTMS. HOWEVER...THIS IS STILL
FAR OUT AND EVEN A FRONTAL POSITION JUST S OF THE CWA COULD ALLOW
FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PERSISTENT OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH VFR
MUCH OF THE TIME. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR OR
BELOW IN LOW STRATUS/FOG LATE TONIGHT ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST.
KSWF HAS A LOW CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...BUT
PROBABILITY TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

S-SW WINDS NEAR 10 GUSTING TO NEAR 15 KT INCREASE FURTHER THIS
AFTERNOON TO NEAR 15 KT WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT. WINDS DIMINISH THIS
EVENING BUT A FEW HRS LATER FOR CITY TERMINALS.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY BE A FEW KTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY BE A FEW KTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY BE A FEW KTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY BE A FEW KTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY BE A FEW KTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY BE A FEW KTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW CHANCE OF EARLY MORNING MVFR
STRATUS. LOW CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
SHRA/TSTM...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE NYC METRO TERMINALS.
SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT.
.THURSDAY-SATURDAY...THIS IS A CHANCE OF LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING MVFR OR LOWER STRATUS AND/OR FOG. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHRA/TSTM. WIND GUSTS 20-25 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE CONTINUED WITH SCA ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON TO AROUND 25 KT HELPING
TO KEEP SEAS AT AROUND 5 FT. HAVE ALSO ISSUED AN SCA FOR NY HARBOR
AND THE S SHORE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND FROM 16Z TODAY THROUGH 4Z
TONIGHT FOR GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT WITH THE SEABREEZE. ON THE
REMAINDER OF THE WATERS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT..EXPECT GUSTS TO TOP
OUT AT 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF DENSE FOG TO FORM OVER THE
WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHAT FORMS
COULD ALSO JUST END UP BEING AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS. TO SOON TO
TELL...SO WENT WITH PATCHY FOG LOWERING VISIBILITIES TO 1-3NM.

FOR WINDS AND WAVES ON WEDNESDAY...ITS LIKELY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY/TODAY WITH SCA SEAS ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS ALL
DAY...AND GUSTS TO 25 KT ON THE COASTAL OCEAN ZONES/NY HARBOR/S
SHORE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE
IS NOT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH TO EXTEND THE SCA INTO WEDNESDAY AT THIS
TIME.

SCA SEAS REMAIN ON THE OCEAN WED NIGHT THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
THRU THE DAY ON THU. WINDS WILL BE MARGINAL ON THE OCEAN AND S
SHORE BAYS...AND BELOW SCA LEVELS ELSEWHERE. LIGHTER FLOW THU
THRU FRI NIGHT WITH CONDITIONS BELOW SCA LEVELS. WINDS AND SEAS
BUILD ON SAT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY
SUNSET...ESPECIALLY THE OCEAN. AS THE FRONT STALLS S OF THE WATERS
SUN AND MON...NE FLOW WOULD DRIVE SEAS TO 5 FT OR MORE ON THE
OCEAN...WITH WIND SPEEDS IN THE 15-25KT RANGE ALL WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GENERALLY LESS THAN 1/10 OF AN INCH OF BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER ANY STRONGER CONVECTION THAT
FORMS...ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS ANY TRAINING OF STORMS...COULD
LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AND/OR POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT IMPACTS THE AREA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ338-345.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...JMC/MALOIT/DS
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...BC/JM
MARINE...JMC/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...JMC/MALOIT



000
FXUS61 KOKX 261624
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1224 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS ANCHORED WELL OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND REACH THE TRI-STATE REGION THURSDAY. THE
FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH ON SATURDAY...AND SAG SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
THE FRONT WILL THEN BECOME STATIONARY FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST DATABASE THIS UPDATE OTHER
THAN TO UPDATE TEMPERATURE...DEW POINT...AND SKY GRIDS TO REFLECT
LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

THE REGION REMAINS ON N/W PERIPHERY OF DEEP LAYERED RIDGE. THE
BIGGEST QUESTION FOR LATER TODAY IS IF NW ZONES FAR ENOUGH REMOVED
FROM THE RIDGE TO GET ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION. THE GFS/NAM
ARGUE YES...THE CMC/ECMWF ARGUE NO.

A TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION IS LACKING TODAY ACROSS NW ZONES...BUT
EXPECT A FAIRLY STRONG SEABREEZE TO PENETRATE WELL INLAND THIS
AFTERNOON. THE SEABREEZE BOUNDARY COULD SERVE AS A TRIGGER FOR
CONVECTION OVER NW INTERIOR ZONES IF FORECAST CAPE OF 500-1500
J/KG CAPE IS REALIZED (NO CAPE IN ECMWF). SURFACE BASED CAPE HAS
BEGUN TO INCREASE ACROSS ORANGE COUNTY...BUT BEST INSTABILITY AND
LIFT ARE LIKELY TO STAY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF OUR INTERIOR
ZONES. HAVE CONTINUED WITH MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER NW
ZONES...WITH CHANCE POPS W ORANGE COUNTY.

FOR HIGHS TODAY USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 975 TO 850 HPA PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR METEOROLOGICAL ENHANCEMENT OF RIP
CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
CORE OF DEEP LAYERED RIDGE SLIDES SLIGHTLY FARTHER TO THE S/E
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

FOR TONIGHT...THE CMC/ECMWF KEEP THINGS DRY...WITH NO FORCING.
WHILE THE GFS/NAM BRING A WEAK 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE OVER MAINLY
N/W PORTIONS OF THE AREA. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY HAVE CAPPED POPS AT
SLIGHT CHANCE.

GIVEN PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW AND FORECAST DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW
LEVEL INVERSION...EXPECT FOR LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP
TONIGHT...TIMING IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...BUT WOULD EXPECT S SHORE
LOCATIONS TO GO FIRST...AFTER SUNSET...WITH INTERIOR AREAS
CLOUDING UP AROUND/AFTER MIDNIGHT. ANY LOW CLOUDS WILL BE LAST TO
REACH NW ZONES...IF THEY DO AT ALL...NOTING WEAKER IF NOT NON-
EXISTENT LOW LEVEL INVERSION IN BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AT KMGJ/KSWF. IN
ADDITION TO THE STRATUS...HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AS WELL. IF
THE SHOWERS/TSTMS MATERIALIZE...WOULD NOT EXPECT ANY FOG UNTIL
AFTER THEY PASS. AS IS ALWAYS THE CASE WHEN YOU HAVE MARINE
INDUCED STRATUS...IS IT IS NEVER CERTAIN WHETHER YOU WILL GET FOG
AS WELL...SO RESTRICTED FOG TO PATCHY AND AT THIS TIME WILL NOT
FORECAST ANY LOCALLY DENSE FOG...THOUGH CANNOT RULE IT
OUT...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT...USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES. VALUES SHOULD BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

ON WEDNESDAY CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OVER WESTERN ZONES WILL BE AIDED
BY FORMATION OF A LEE/THERMAL TROUGH...PASSING OF A 30-35 KT 950
HPA JET...AND MODEL AVERAGE FORECAST CAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG.
BASED ON THIS HAVE 40-50 POPS OVER NW ZONES BY AFTERNOON...WITH
CHANCE POPS INTO NYC/SW CT AND SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE. AS IS
ALWAYS THE QUESTION THIS TIME OF YEAR...IS HOW LONG DO STORMS STAY
TOGETHER AS THEY HEAD EAST INTO THE MARINE LAYER. WITH BULK
RICHARDSON NUMBER GENERALLY FORECAST TO BE MUCH GREATER THAN
40...WOULD EXPECT MAINLY ISOLATED PULSE STORMS. HOWEVER...IF
THE HIGH END OF MODEL FORECAST CAPE IS REALIZED...THEN SOME
LOCALIZED SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT...WITH THE
BEST CHANCE OVER THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY W OF THE HUDSON RIVER.

FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 975 TO 900
HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A BLEND
OF MAV/ECS/MET GUIDANCE. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESIDUAL CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO EASE THRU THE REGION WED NIGHT.
THE FRONT WILL STILL BE ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND CENTRAL PA AT THIS
POINT PER THE NAM AND GFS. A DECENT RIBBON OF CAPE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT ON THU. THIS INSTABILITY AXIS SHOULD RESIDE FROM ROUGHLY
NORTHEASTERN NJ THRU THE HUDSON VALLEY AND INTO WRN CT. THE
PERSISTENT SWLY SFC FLOW WILL KEEP THE COASTS FAIRLY STABLE. THE
CITY WILL BE IN THE GRADIENT REGION...WITH THE SEA BREEZE
INFLUENCE ATTEMPTING TO STABILIZE THE AREA AS WELL. THE FRONT WILL
BE A FOCUS FOR TSTMS PER THE 00Z GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...THE FRONT
LOOKS TO DISSIPATE AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE COOLER MARITIME INFLUENCED
AIRMASS. AS A RESULT THE BOUNDARY MAY NEVER EVEN MAKE IT TO ERN
AREAS. SLY FLOW DEVELOPS ON FRI AS THE PRES FALLS N OF THE REGION.
THIS FALLING PRES WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONGER COLD
FRONT...WHICH WILL APPROACH ON SAT BEFORE STALLING S OF THE AREA
LATE SUN INTO TUE. GOOD CHANCES FOR CONVECTION SAT. PRECIPITATION TYPE
AND CHANCES WILL TIED TO THE POSITION OF THE FRONT SUN AND MON.
FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL BE FAR ENOUGH S TO KEEP THE
CWA FIRMLY IN THE COLDER AIRMASS WITH EASTERLY WINDS AND RAIN
CHANCES AS OPPOSED TO SHOWERS AND TSTMS. HOWEVER...THIS IS STILL
FAR OUT AND EVEN A FRONTAL POSITION JUST S OF THE CWA COULD ALLOW
FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PERSISTENT OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH VFR
MUCH OF THE TIME. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR OR
BELOW IN LOW STRATUS/FOG LATE TONIGHT ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST.
KSWF HAS A LOW CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...BUT
PROBABILITY TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

S-SW WINDS NEAR 10 GUSTING TO NEAR 15 KT INCREASE FURTHER THIS
AFTERNOON TO NEAR 15 KT WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT. WINDS DIMINISH THIS
EVENING BUT A FEW HRS LATER FOR CITY TERMINALS.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY BE A FEW KTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY BE A FEW KTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY BE A FEW KTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY BE A FEW KTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY BE A FEW KTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY BE A FEW KTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW CHANCE OF EARLY MORNING MVFR
STRATUS. LOW CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
SHRA/TSTM...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE NYC METRO TERMINALS.
SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT.
.THURSDAY-SATURDAY...THIS IS A CHANCE OF LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING MVFR OR LOWER STRATUS AND/OR FOG. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHRA/TSTM. WIND GUSTS 20-25 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE CONTINUED WITH SCA ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON TO AROUND 25 KT HELPING
TO KEEP SEAS AT AROUND 5 FT. HAVE ALSO ISSUED AN SCA FOR NY HARBOR
AND THE S SHORE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND FROM 16Z TODAY THROUGH 4Z
TONIGHT FOR GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT WITH THE SEABREEZE. ON THE
REMAINDER OF THE WATERS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT..EXPECT GUSTS TO TOP
OUT AT 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF DENSE FOG TO FORM OVER THE
WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHAT FORMS
COULD ALSO JUST END UP BEING AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS. TO SOON TO
TELL...SO WENT WITH PATCHY FOG LOWERING VISIBILITIES TO 1-3NM.

FOR WINDS AND WAVES ON WEDNESDAY...ITS LIKELY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY/TODAY WITH SCA SEAS ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS ALL
DAY...AND GUSTS TO 25 KT ON THE COASTAL OCEAN ZONES/NY HARBOR/S
SHORE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE
IS NOT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH TO EXTEND THE SCA INTO WEDNESDAY AT THIS
TIME.

SCA SEAS REMAIN ON THE OCEAN WED NIGHT THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
THRU THE DAY ON THU. WINDS WILL BE MARGINAL ON THE OCEAN AND S
SHORE BAYS...AND BELOW SCA LEVELS ELSEWHERE. LIGHTER FLOW THU
THRU FRI NIGHT WITH CONDITIONS BELOW SCA LEVELS. WINDS AND SEAS
BUILD ON SAT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY
SUNSET...ESPECIALLY THE OCEAN. AS THE FRONT STALLS S OF THE WATERS
SUN AND MON...NE FLOW WOULD DRIVE SEAS TO 5 FT OR MORE ON THE
OCEAN...WITH WIND SPEEDS IN THE 15-25KT RANGE ALL WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GENERALLY LESS THAN 1/10 OF AN INCH OF BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER ANY STRONGER CONVECTION THAT
FORMS...ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS ANY TRAINING OF STORMS...COULD
LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AND/OR POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT IMPACTS THE AREA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ338-345.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...JMC/MALOIT/DS
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...BC/JM
MARINE...JMC/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...JMC/MALOIT




000
FXUS61 KOKX 261458
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1058 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS ANCHORED WELL OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND REACH THE TRI-STATE REGION THURSDAY. THE
FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH ON SATURDAY...AND SAG SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
THE FRONT WILL THEN BECOME STATIONARY FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST CONTINUES ON TRACK THIS MORNING AS THE REGION REMAINS ON
N/W PERIPHERY OF DEEP LAYERED RIDGE. THE BIGGEST QUESTION FOR
LATER TODAY IS IF NW ZONES FAR ENOUGH REMOVED FROM THE RIDGE TO
GET ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION. THE GFS/NAM ARGUE YES...THE
CMC/ECMWF ARGUE NO.

A TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION IS LACKING TODAY ACROSS NW ZONES...BUT
EXPECT A FAIRLY STRONG SEABREEZE TO PENETRATE WELL INLAND THIS
AFTERNOON. THE SEABREEZE BOUNDARY COULD SERVE AS A TRIGGER FOR
CONVECTION OVER NW INTERIOR ZONES IF FORECAST CAPE OF 500-1500
J/KG CAPE IS REALIZED (NO CAPE IN ECMWF). HAVE CONTINUED WITH
MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER NW ZONES...WITH CHANCE POPS W
ORANGE COUNTY.

FOR HIGHS TODAY USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 975 TO 850 HPA PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR METEOROLOGICAL ENHANCEMENT OF RIP
CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
CORE OF DEEP LAYERED RIDGE SLIDES SLIGHTLY FARTHER TO THE S/E
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

FOR TONIGHT...THE CMC/ECMWF KEEP THINGS DRY...WITH NO FORCING.
WHILE THE GFS/NAM BRING A WEAK 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE OVER MAINLY
N/W PORTIONS OF THE AREA. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY HAVE CAPPED POPS AT
SLIGHT CHANCE.

GIVEN PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW AND FORECAST DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW
LEVEL INVERSION...EXPECT FOR LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP
TONIGHT...TIMING IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...BUT WOULD EXPECT S SHORE
LOCATIONS TO GO FIRST...AFTER SUNSET...WITH INTERIOR AREAS
CLOUDING UP AROUND/AFTER MIDNIGHT. ANY LOW CLOUDS WILL BE LAST TO
REACH NW ZONES...IF THEY DO AT ALL...NOTING WEAKER IF NOT NON-
EXISTENT LOW LEVEL INVERSION IN BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AT KMGJ/KSWF. IN
ADDITION TO THE STRATUS...HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AS WELL. IF
THE SHOWERS/TSTMS MATERIALIZE...WOULD NOT EXPECT ANY FOG UNTIL
AFTER THEY PASS. AS IS ALWAYS THE CASE WHEN YOU HAVE MARINE
INDUCED STRATUS...IS IT IS NEVER CERTAIN WHETHER YOU WILL GET FOG
AS WELL...SO RESTRICTED FOG TO PATCHY AND AT THIS TIME WILL NOT
FORECAST ANY LOCALLY DENSE FOG...THOUGH CANNOT RULE IT
OUT...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT...USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES. VALUES SHOULD BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

ON WEDNESDAY CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OVER WESTERN ZONES WILL BE AIDED
BY FORMATION OF A LEE/THERMAL TROUGH...PASSING OF A 30-35 KT 950
HPA JET...AND MODEL AVERAGE FORECAST CAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG.
BASED ON THIS HAVE 40-50 POPS OVER NW ZONES BY AFTERNOON...WITH
CHANCE POPS INTO NYC/SW CT AND SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE. AS IS
ALWAYS THE QUESTION THIS TIME OF YEAR...IS HOW LONG DO STORMS STAY
TOGETHER AS THEY HEAD EAST INTO THE MARINE LAYER. WITH BULK
RICHARDSON NUMBER GENERALLY FORECAST TO BE MUCH GREATER THAN
40...WOULD EXPECT MAINLY ISOLATED PULSE STORMS. HOWEVER...IF
THE HIGH END OF MODEL FORECAST CAPE IS REALIZED...THEN SOME
LOCALIZED SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT...WITH THE
BEST CHANCE OVER THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY W OF THE HUDSON RIVER.

FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 975 TO 900
HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A BLEND
OF MAV/ECS/MET GUIDANCE. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESIDUAL CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO EASE THRU THE REGION WED NIGHT.
THE FRONT WILL STILL BE ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND CENTRAL PA AT THIS
POINT PER THE NAM AND GFS. A DECENT RIBBON OF CAPE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT ON THU. THIS INSTABILITY AXIS SHOULD RESIDE FROM ROUGHLY
NORTHEASTERN NJ THRU THE HUDSON VALLEY AND INTO WRN CT. THE
PERSISTENT SWLY SFC FLOW WILL KEEP THE COASTS FAIRLY STABLE. THE
CITY WILL BE IN THE GRADIENT REGION...WITH THE SEA BREEZE
INFLUENCE ATTEMPTING TO STABILIZE THE AREA AS WELL. THE FRONT WILL
BE A FOCUS FOR TSTMS PER THE 00Z GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...THE FRONT
LOOKS TO DISSIPATE AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE COOLER MARITIME INFLUENCED
AIRMASS. AS A RESULT THE BOUNDARY MAY NEVER EVEN MAKE IT TO ERN
AREAS. SLY FLOW DEVELOPS ON FRI AS THE PRES FALLS N OF THE REGION.
THIS FALLING PRES WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONGER COLD
FRONT...WHICH WILL APPROACH ON SAT BEFORE STALLING S OF THE AREA
LATE SUN INTO TUE. GOOD CHANCES FOR CONVECTION SAT. PRECIPITATION TYPE
AND CHANCES WILL TIED TO THE POSITION OF THE FRONT SUN AND MON.
FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL BE FAR ENOUGH S TO KEEP THE
CWA FIRMLY IN THE COLDER AIRMASS WITH EASTERLY WINDS AND RAIN
CHANCES AS OPPOSED TO SHOWERS AND TSTMS. HOWEVER...THIS IS STILL
FAR OUT AND EVEN A FRONTAL POSITION JUST S OF THE CWA COULD ALLOW
FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PERSISTENT OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH VFR
MUCH OF THE TIME. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR OR
BELOW IN LOW STRATUS/FOG LATE TONIGHT ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST.
KSWF HAS A LOW CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...BUT
PROBABILITY TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

S-SW WINDS NEAR 10 GUSTING TO NEAR 15 KT INCREASE FURTHER THIS
AFTERNOON TO NEAR 15 KT WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT. WINDS DIMINISH THIS
EVENING BUT A FEW HRS LATER FOR CITY TERMINALS.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY BE A FEW KTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY BE A FEW KTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY BE A FEW KTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY BE A FEW KTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY BE A FEW KTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY BE A FEW KTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW CHANCE OF EARLY MORNING MVFR
STRATUS. LOW CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
SHRA/TSTM...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE NYC METRO TERMINALS.
SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT.
.THURSDAY-SATURDAY...THIS IS A CHANCE OF LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING MVFR OR LOWER STRATUS AND/OR FOG. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHRA/TSTM. WIND GUSTS 20-25 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE CONTINUED WITH SCA ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON TO AROUND 25 KT HELPING
TO KEEP SEAS AT AROUND 5 FT. HAVE ALSO ISSUED AN SCA FOR NY HARBOR
AND THE S SHORE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND FROM 16Z TODAY THROUGH 4Z
TONIGHT FOR GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT WITH THE SEABREEZE. ON THE
REMAINDER OF THE WATERS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT..EXPECT GUSTS TO TOP
OUT AT 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF DENSE FOG TO FORM OVER THE
WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHAT FORMS
COULD ALSO JUST END UP BEING AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS. TO SOON TO
TELL...SO WENT WITH PATCHY FOG LOWERING VISIBILITIES TO 1-3NM.

FOR WINDS AND WAVES ON WEDNESDAY...ITS LIKELY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY/TODAY WITH SCA SEAS ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS ALL
DAY...AND GUSTS TO 25 KT ON THE COASTAL OCEAN ZONES/NY HARBOR/S
SHORE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE
IS NOT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH TO EXTEND THE SCA INTO WEDNESDAY AT THIS
TIME.

SCA SEAS REMAIN ON THE OCEAN WED NIGHT THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
THRU THE DAY ON THU. WINDS WILL BE MARGINAL ON THE OCEAN AND S
SHORE BAYS...AND BELOW SCA LEVELS ELSEWHERE. LIGHTER FLOW THU
THRU FRI NIGHT WITH CONDITIONS BELOW SCA LEVELS. WINDS AND SEAS
BUILD ON SAT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY
SUNSET...ESPECIALLY THE OCEAN. AS THE FRONT STALLS S OF THE WATERS
SUN AND MON...NE FLOW WOULD DRIVE SEAS TO 5 FT OR MORE ON THE
OCEAN...WITH WIND SPEEDS IN THE 15-25KT RANGE ALL WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GENERALLY LESS THAN 1/10 OF AN INCH OF BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER ANY STRONGER CONVECTION THAT
FORMS...ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS ANY TRAINING OF STORMS...COULD
LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AND/OR POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT IMPACTS THE AREA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ338-345.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...JMC/MALOIT/DS
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...BC/JM
MARINE...JMC/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...JMC/MALOIT



000
FXUS61 KOKX 261458
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1058 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS ANCHORED WELL OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND REACH THE TRI-STATE REGION THURSDAY. THE
FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH ON SATURDAY...AND SAG SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
THE FRONT WILL THEN BECOME STATIONARY FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST CONTINUES ON TRACK THIS MORNING AS THE REGION REMAINS ON
N/W PERIPHERY OF DEEP LAYERED RIDGE. THE BIGGEST QUESTION FOR
LATER TODAY IS IF NW ZONES FAR ENOUGH REMOVED FROM THE RIDGE TO
GET ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION. THE GFS/NAM ARGUE YES...THE
CMC/ECMWF ARGUE NO.

A TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION IS LACKING TODAY ACROSS NW ZONES...BUT
EXPECT A FAIRLY STRONG SEABREEZE TO PENETRATE WELL INLAND THIS
AFTERNOON. THE SEABREEZE BOUNDARY COULD SERVE AS A TRIGGER FOR
CONVECTION OVER NW INTERIOR ZONES IF FORECAST CAPE OF 500-1500
J/KG CAPE IS REALIZED (NO CAPE IN ECMWF). HAVE CONTINUED WITH
MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER NW ZONES...WITH CHANCE POPS W
ORANGE COUNTY.

FOR HIGHS TODAY USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 975 TO 850 HPA PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR METEOROLOGICAL ENHANCEMENT OF RIP
CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
CORE OF DEEP LAYERED RIDGE SLIDES SLIGHTLY FARTHER TO THE S/E
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

FOR TONIGHT...THE CMC/ECMWF KEEP THINGS DRY...WITH NO FORCING.
WHILE THE GFS/NAM BRING A WEAK 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE OVER MAINLY
N/W PORTIONS OF THE AREA. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY HAVE CAPPED POPS AT
SLIGHT CHANCE.

GIVEN PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW AND FORECAST DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW
LEVEL INVERSION...EXPECT FOR LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP
TONIGHT...TIMING IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...BUT WOULD EXPECT S SHORE
LOCATIONS TO GO FIRST...AFTER SUNSET...WITH INTERIOR AREAS
CLOUDING UP AROUND/AFTER MIDNIGHT. ANY LOW CLOUDS WILL BE LAST TO
REACH NW ZONES...IF THEY DO AT ALL...NOTING WEAKER IF NOT NON-
EXISTENT LOW LEVEL INVERSION IN BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AT KMGJ/KSWF. IN
ADDITION TO THE STRATUS...HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AS WELL. IF
THE SHOWERS/TSTMS MATERIALIZE...WOULD NOT EXPECT ANY FOG UNTIL
AFTER THEY PASS. AS IS ALWAYS THE CASE WHEN YOU HAVE MARINE
INDUCED STRATUS...IS IT IS NEVER CERTAIN WHETHER YOU WILL GET FOG
AS WELL...SO RESTRICTED FOG TO PATCHY AND AT THIS TIME WILL NOT
FORECAST ANY LOCALLY DENSE FOG...THOUGH CANNOT RULE IT
OUT...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT...USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES. VALUES SHOULD BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

ON WEDNESDAY CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OVER WESTERN ZONES WILL BE AIDED
BY FORMATION OF A LEE/THERMAL TROUGH...PASSING OF A 30-35 KT 950
HPA JET...AND MODEL AVERAGE FORECAST CAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG.
BASED ON THIS HAVE 40-50 POPS OVER NW ZONES BY AFTERNOON...WITH
CHANCE POPS INTO NYC/SW CT AND SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE. AS IS
ALWAYS THE QUESTION THIS TIME OF YEAR...IS HOW LONG DO STORMS STAY
TOGETHER AS THEY HEAD EAST INTO THE MARINE LAYER. WITH BULK
RICHARDSON NUMBER GENERALLY FORECAST TO BE MUCH GREATER THAN
40...WOULD EXPECT MAINLY ISOLATED PULSE STORMS. HOWEVER...IF
THE HIGH END OF MODEL FORECAST CAPE IS REALIZED...THEN SOME
LOCALIZED SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT...WITH THE
BEST CHANCE OVER THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY W OF THE HUDSON RIVER.

FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 975 TO 900
HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A BLEND
OF MAV/ECS/MET GUIDANCE. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESIDUAL CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO EASE THRU THE REGION WED NIGHT.
THE FRONT WILL STILL BE ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND CENTRAL PA AT THIS
POINT PER THE NAM AND GFS. A DECENT RIBBON OF CAPE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT ON THU. THIS INSTABILITY AXIS SHOULD RESIDE FROM ROUGHLY
NORTHEASTERN NJ THRU THE HUDSON VALLEY AND INTO WRN CT. THE
PERSISTENT SWLY SFC FLOW WILL KEEP THE COASTS FAIRLY STABLE. THE
CITY WILL BE IN THE GRADIENT REGION...WITH THE SEA BREEZE
INFLUENCE ATTEMPTING TO STABILIZE THE AREA AS WELL. THE FRONT WILL
BE A FOCUS FOR TSTMS PER THE 00Z GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...THE FRONT
LOOKS TO DISSIPATE AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE COOLER MARITIME INFLUENCED
AIRMASS. AS A RESULT THE BOUNDARY MAY NEVER EVEN MAKE IT TO ERN
AREAS. SLY FLOW DEVELOPS ON FRI AS THE PRES FALLS N OF THE REGION.
THIS FALLING PRES WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONGER COLD
FRONT...WHICH WILL APPROACH ON SAT BEFORE STALLING S OF THE AREA
LATE SUN INTO TUE. GOOD CHANCES FOR CONVECTION SAT. PRECIPITATION TYPE
AND CHANCES WILL TIED TO THE POSITION OF THE FRONT SUN AND MON.
FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL BE FAR ENOUGH S TO KEEP THE
CWA FIRMLY IN THE COLDER AIRMASS WITH EASTERLY WINDS AND RAIN
CHANCES AS OPPOSED TO SHOWERS AND TSTMS. HOWEVER...THIS IS STILL
FAR OUT AND EVEN A FRONTAL POSITION JUST S OF THE CWA COULD ALLOW
FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PERSISTENT OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH VFR
MUCH OF THE TIME. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR OR
BELOW IN LOW STRATUS/FOG LATE TONIGHT ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST.
KSWF HAS A LOW CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...BUT
PROBABILITY TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

S-SW WINDS NEAR 10 GUSTING TO NEAR 15 KT INCREASE FURTHER THIS
AFTERNOON TO NEAR 15 KT WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT. WINDS DIMINISH THIS
EVENING BUT A FEW HRS LATER FOR CITY TERMINALS.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY BE A FEW KTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY BE A FEW KTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY BE A FEW KTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY BE A FEW KTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY BE A FEW KTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY BE A FEW KTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW CHANCE OF EARLY MORNING MVFR
STRATUS. LOW CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
SHRA/TSTM...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE NYC METRO TERMINALS.
SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT.
.THURSDAY-SATURDAY...THIS IS A CHANCE OF LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING MVFR OR LOWER STRATUS AND/OR FOG. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHRA/TSTM. WIND GUSTS 20-25 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE CONTINUED WITH SCA ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON TO AROUND 25 KT HELPING
TO KEEP SEAS AT AROUND 5 FT. HAVE ALSO ISSUED AN SCA FOR NY HARBOR
AND THE S SHORE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND FROM 16Z TODAY THROUGH 4Z
TONIGHT FOR GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT WITH THE SEABREEZE. ON THE
REMAINDER OF THE WATERS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT..EXPECT GUSTS TO TOP
OUT AT 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF DENSE FOG TO FORM OVER THE
WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHAT FORMS
COULD ALSO JUST END UP BEING AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS. TO SOON TO
TELL...SO WENT WITH PATCHY FOG LOWERING VISIBILITIES TO 1-3NM.

FOR WINDS AND WAVES ON WEDNESDAY...ITS LIKELY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY/TODAY WITH SCA SEAS ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS ALL
DAY...AND GUSTS TO 25 KT ON THE COASTAL OCEAN ZONES/NY HARBOR/S
SHORE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE
IS NOT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH TO EXTEND THE SCA INTO WEDNESDAY AT THIS
TIME.

SCA SEAS REMAIN ON THE OCEAN WED NIGHT THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
THRU THE DAY ON THU. WINDS WILL BE MARGINAL ON THE OCEAN AND S
SHORE BAYS...AND BELOW SCA LEVELS ELSEWHERE. LIGHTER FLOW THU
THRU FRI NIGHT WITH CONDITIONS BELOW SCA LEVELS. WINDS AND SEAS
BUILD ON SAT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY
SUNSET...ESPECIALLY THE OCEAN. AS THE FRONT STALLS S OF THE WATERS
SUN AND MON...NE FLOW WOULD DRIVE SEAS TO 5 FT OR MORE ON THE
OCEAN...WITH WIND SPEEDS IN THE 15-25KT RANGE ALL WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GENERALLY LESS THAN 1/10 OF AN INCH OF BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER ANY STRONGER CONVECTION THAT
FORMS...ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS ANY TRAINING OF STORMS...COULD
LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AND/OR POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT IMPACTS THE AREA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ338-345.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...JMC/MALOIT/DS
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...BC/JM
MARINE...JMC/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...JMC/MALOIT



000
FXUS61 KOKX 261458
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1058 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS ANCHORED WELL OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND REACH THE TRI-STATE REGION THURSDAY. THE
FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH ON SATURDAY...AND SAG SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
THE FRONT WILL THEN BECOME STATIONARY FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST CONTINUES ON TRACK THIS MORNING AS THE REGION REMAINS ON
N/W PERIPHERY OF DEEP LAYERED RIDGE. THE BIGGEST QUESTION FOR
LATER TODAY IS IF NW ZONES FAR ENOUGH REMOVED FROM THE RIDGE TO
GET ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION. THE GFS/NAM ARGUE YES...THE
CMC/ECMWF ARGUE NO.

A TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION IS LACKING TODAY ACROSS NW ZONES...BUT
EXPECT A FAIRLY STRONG SEABREEZE TO PENETRATE WELL INLAND THIS
AFTERNOON. THE SEABREEZE BOUNDARY COULD SERVE AS A TRIGGER FOR
CONVECTION OVER NW INTERIOR ZONES IF FORECAST CAPE OF 500-1500
J/KG CAPE IS REALIZED (NO CAPE IN ECMWF). HAVE CONTINUED WITH
MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER NW ZONES...WITH CHANCE POPS W
ORANGE COUNTY.

FOR HIGHS TODAY USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 975 TO 850 HPA PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR METEOROLOGICAL ENHANCEMENT OF RIP
CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
CORE OF DEEP LAYERED RIDGE SLIDES SLIGHTLY FARTHER TO THE S/E
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

FOR TONIGHT...THE CMC/ECMWF KEEP THINGS DRY...WITH NO FORCING.
WHILE THE GFS/NAM BRING A WEAK 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE OVER MAINLY
N/W PORTIONS OF THE AREA. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY HAVE CAPPED POPS AT
SLIGHT CHANCE.

GIVEN PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW AND FORECAST DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW
LEVEL INVERSION...EXPECT FOR LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP
TONIGHT...TIMING IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...BUT WOULD EXPECT S SHORE
LOCATIONS TO GO FIRST...AFTER SUNSET...WITH INTERIOR AREAS
CLOUDING UP AROUND/AFTER MIDNIGHT. ANY LOW CLOUDS WILL BE LAST TO
REACH NW ZONES...IF THEY DO AT ALL...NOTING WEAKER IF NOT NON-
EXISTENT LOW LEVEL INVERSION IN BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AT KMGJ/KSWF. IN
ADDITION TO THE STRATUS...HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AS WELL. IF
THE SHOWERS/TSTMS MATERIALIZE...WOULD NOT EXPECT ANY FOG UNTIL
AFTER THEY PASS. AS IS ALWAYS THE CASE WHEN YOU HAVE MARINE
INDUCED STRATUS...IS IT IS NEVER CERTAIN WHETHER YOU WILL GET FOG
AS WELL...SO RESTRICTED FOG TO PATCHY AND AT THIS TIME WILL NOT
FORECAST ANY LOCALLY DENSE FOG...THOUGH CANNOT RULE IT
OUT...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT...USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES. VALUES SHOULD BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

ON WEDNESDAY CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OVER WESTERN ZONES WILL BE AIDED
BY FORMATION OF A LEE/THERMAL TROUGH...PASSING OF A 30-35 KT 950
HPA JET...AND MODEL AVERAGE FORECAST CAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG.
BASED ON THIS HAVE 40-50 POPS OVER NW ZONES BY AFTERNOON...WITH
CHANCE POPS INTO NYC/SW CT AND SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE. AS IS
ALWAYS THE QUESTION THIS TIME OF YEAR...IS HOW LONG DO STORMS STAY
TOGETHER AS THEY HEAD EAST INTO THE MARINE LAYER. WITH BULK
RICHARDSON NUMBER GENERALLY FORECAST TO BE MUCH GREATER THAN
40...WOULD EXPECT MAINLY ISOLATED PULSE STORMS. HOWEVER...IF
THE HIGH END OF MODEL FORECAST CAPE IS REALIZED...THEN SOME
LOCALIZED SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT...WITH THE
BEST CHANCE OVER THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY W OF THE HUDSON RIVER.

FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 975 TO 900
HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A BLEND
OF MAV/ECS/MET GUIDANCE. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESIDUAL CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO EASE THRU THE REGION WED NIGHT.
THE FRONT WILL STILL BE ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND CENTRAL PA AT THIS
POINT PER THE NAM AND GFS. A DECENT RIBBON OF CAPE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT ON THU. THIS INSTABILITY AXIS SHOULD RESIDE FROM ROUGHLY
NORTHEASTERN NJ THRU THE HUDSON VALLEY AND INTO WRN CT. THE
PERSISTENT SWLY SFC FLOW WILL KEEP THE COASTS FAIRLY STABLE. THE
CITY WILL BE IN THE GRADIENT REGION...WITH THE SEA BREEZE
INFLUENCE ATTEMPTING TO STABILIZE THE AREA AS WELL. THE FRONT WILL
BE A FOCUS FOR TSTMS PER THE 00Z GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...THE FRONT
LOOKS TO DISSIPATE AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE COOLER MARITIME INFLUENCED
AIRMASS. AS A RESULT THE BOUNDARY MAY NEVER EVEN MAKE IT TO ERN
AREAS. SLY FLOW DEVELOPS ON FRI AS THE PRES FALLS N OF THE REGION.
THIS FALLING PRES WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONGER COLD
FRONT...WHICH WILL APPROACH ON SAT BEFORE STALLING S OF THE AREA
LATE SUN INTO TUE. GOOD CHANCES FOR CONVECTION SAT. PRECIPITATION TYPE
AND CHANCES WILL TIED TO THE POSITION OF THE FRONT SUN AND MON.
FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL BE FAR ENOUGH S TO KEEP THE
CWA FIRMLY IN THE COLDER AIRMASS WITH EASTERLY WINDS AND RAIN
CHANCES AS OPPOSED TO SHOWERS AND TSTMS. HOWEVER...THIS IS STILL
FAR OUT AND EVEN A FRONTAL POSITION JUST S OF THE CWA COULD ALLOW
FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PERSISTENT OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH VFR
MUCH OF THE TIME. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR OR
BELOW IN LOW STRATUS/FOG LATE TONIGHT ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST.
KSWF HAS A LOW CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...BUT
PROBABILITY TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

S-SW WINDS NEAR 10 GUSTING TO NEAR 15 KT INCREASE FURTHER THIS
AFTERNOON TO NEAR 15 KT WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT. WINDS DIMINISH THIS
EVENING BUT A FEW HRS LATER FOR CITY TERMINALS.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY BE A FEW KTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY BE A FEW KTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY BE A FEW KTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY BE A FEW KTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY BE A FEW KTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY BE A FEW KTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW CHANCE OF EARLY MORNING MVFR
STRATUS. LOW CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
SHRA/TSTM...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE NYC METRO TERMINALS.
SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT.
.THURSDAY-SATURDAY...THIS IS A CHANCE OF LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING MVFR OR LOWER STRATUS AND/OR FOG. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHRA/TSTM. WIND GUSTS 20-25 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE CONTINUED WITH SCA ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON TO AROUND 25 KT HELPING
TO KEEP SEAS AT AROUND 5 FT. HAVE ALSO ISSUED AN SCA FOR NY HARBOR
AND THE S SHORE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND FROM 16Z TODAY THROUGH 4Z
TONIGHT FOR GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT WITH THE SEABREEZE. ON THE
REMAINDER OF THE WATERS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT..EXPECT GUSTS TO TOP
OUT AT 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF DENSE FOG TO FORM OVER THE
WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHAT FORMS
COULD ALSO JUST END UP BEING AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS. TO SOON TO
TELL...SO WENT WITH PATCHY FOG LOWERING VISIBILITIES TO 1-3NM.

FOR WINDS AND WAVES ON WEDNESDAY...ITS LIKELY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY/TODAY WITH SCA SEAS ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS ALL
DAY...AND GUSTS TO 25 KT ON THE COASTAL OCEAN ZONES/NY HARBOR/S
SHORE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE
IS NOT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH TO EXTEND THE SCA INTO WEDNESDAY AT THIS
TIME.

SCA SEAS REMAIN ON THE OCEAN WED NIGHT THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
THRU THE DAY ON THU. WINDS WILL BE MARGINAL ON THE OCEAN AND S
SHORE BAYS...AND BELOW SCA LEVELS ELSEWHERE. LIGHTER FLOW THU
THRU FRI NIGHT WITH CONDITIONS BELOW SCA LEVELS. WINDS AND SEAS
BUILD ON SAT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY
SUNSET...ESPECIALLY THE OCEAN. AS THE FRONT STALLS S OF THE WATERS
SUN AND MON...NE FLOW WOULD DRIVE SEAS TO 5 FT OR MORE ON THE
OCEAN...WITH WIND SPEEDS IN THE 15-25KT RANGE ALL WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GENERALLY LESS THAN 1/10 OF AN INCH OF BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER ANY STRONGER CONVECTION THAT
FORMS...ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS ANY TRAINING OF STORMS...COULD
LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AND/OR POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT IMPACTS THE AREA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ338-345.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...JMC/MALOIT/DS
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...BC/JM
MARINE...JMC/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...JMC/MALOIT



000
FXUS61 KOKX 261458
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1058 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS ANCHORED WELL OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND REACH THE TRI-STATE REGION THURSDAY. THE
FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH ON SATURDAY...AND SAG SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
THE FRONT WILL THEN BECOME STATIONARY FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST CONTINUES ON TRACK THIS MORNING AS THE REGION REMAINS ON
N/W PERIPHERY OF DEEP LAYERED RIDGE. THE BIGGEST QUESTION FOR
LATER TODAY IS IF NW ZONES FAR ENOUGH REMOVED FROM THE RIDGE TO
GET ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION. THE GFS/NAM ARGUE YES...THE
CMC/ECMWF ARGUE NO.

A TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION IS LACKING TODAY ACROSS NW ZONES...BUT
EXPECT A FAIRLY STRONG SEABREEZE TO PENETRATE WELL INLAND THIS
AFTERNOON. THE SEABREEZE BOUNDARY COULD SERVE AS A TRIGGER FOR
CONVECTION OVER NW INTERIOR ZONES IF FORECAST CAPE OF 500-1500
J/KG CAPE IS REALIZED (NO CAPE IN ECMWF). HAVE CONTINUED WITH
MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER NW ZONES...WITH CHANCE POPS W
ORANGE COUNTY.

FOR HIGHS TODAY USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 975 TO 850 HPA PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR METEOROLOGICAL ENHANCEMENT OF RIP
CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
CORE OF DEEP LAYERED RIDGE SLIDES SLIGHTLY FARTHER TO THE S/E
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

FOR TONIGHT...THE CMC/ECMWF KEEP THINGS DRY...WITH NO FORCING.
WHILE THE GFS/NAM BRING A WEAK 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE OVER MAINLY
N/W PORTIONS OF THE AREA. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY HAVE CAPPED POPS AT
SLIGHT CHANCE.

GIVEN PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW AND FORECAST DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW
LEVEL INVERSION...EXPECT FOR LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP
TONIGHT...TIMING IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...BUT WOULD EXPECT S SHORE
LOCATIONS TO GO FIRST...AFTER SUNSET...WITH INTERIOR AREAS
CLOUDING UP AROUND/AFTER MIDNIGHT. ANY LOW CLOUDS WILL BE LAST TO
REACH NW ZONES...IF THEY DO AT ALL...NOTING WEAKER IF NOT NON-
EXISTENT LOW LEVEL INVERSION IN BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AT KMGJ/KSWF. IN
ADDITION TO THE STRATUS...HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AS WELL. IF
THE SHOWERS/TSTMS MATERIALIZE...WOULD NOT EXPECT ANY FOG UNTIL
AFTER THEY PASS. AS IS ALWAYS THE CASE WHEN YOU HAVE MARINE
INDUCED STRATUS...IS IT IS NEVER CERTAIN WHETHER YOU WILL GET FOG
AS WELL...SO RESTRICTED FOG TO PATCHY AND AT THIS TIME WILL NOT
FORECAST ANY LOCALLY DENSE FOG...THOUGH CANNOT RULE IT
OUT...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT...USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES. VALUES SHOULD BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

ON WEDNESDAY CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OVER WESTERN ZONES WILL BE AIDED
BY FORMATION OF A LEE/THERMAL TROUGH...PASSING OF A 30-35 KT 950
HPA JET...AND MODEL AVERAGE FORECAST CAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG.
BASED ON THIS HAVE 40-50 POPS OVER NW ZONES BY AFTERNOON...WITH
CHANCE POPS INTO NYC/SW CT AND SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE. AS IS
ALWAYS THE QUESTION THIS TIME OF YEAR...IS HOW LONG DO STORMS STAY
TOGETHER AS THEY HEAD EAST INTO THE MARINE LAYER. WITH BULK
RICHARDSON NUMBER GENERALLY FORECAST TO BE MUCH GREATER THAN
40...WOULD EXPECT MAINLY ISOLATED PULSE STORMS. HOWEVER...IF
THE HIGH END OF MODEL FORECAST CAPE IS REALIZED...THEN SOME
LOCALIZED SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT...WITH THE
BEST CHANCE OVER THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY W OF THE HUDSON RIVER.

FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 975 TO 900
HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A BLEND
OF MAV/ECS/MET GUIDANCE. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESIDUAL CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO EASE THRU THE REGION WED NIGHT.
THE FRONT WILL STILL BE ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND CENTRAL PA AT THIS
POINT PER THE NAM AND GFS. A DECENT RIBBON OF CAPE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT ON THU. THIS INSTABILITY AXIS SHOULD RESIDE FROM ROUGHLY
NORTHEASTERN NJ THRU THE HUDSON VALLEY AND INTO WRN CT. THE
PERSISTENT SWLY SFC FLOW WILL KEEP THE COASTS FAIRLY STABLE. THE
CITY WILL BE IN THE GRADIENT REGION...WITH THE SEA BREEZE
INFLUENCE ATTEMPTING TO STABILIZE THE AREA AS WELL. THE FRONT WILL
BE A FOCUS FOR TSTMS PER THE 00Z GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...THE FRONT
LOOKS TO DISSIPATE AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE COOLER MARITIME INFLUENCED
AIRMASS. AS A RESULT THE BOUNDARY MAY NEVER EVEN MAKE IT TO ERN
AREAS. SLY FLOW DEVELOPS ON FRI AS THE PRES FALLS N OF THE REGION.
THIS FALLING PRES WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONGER COLD
FRONT...WHICH WILL APPROACH ON SAT BEFORE STALLING S OF THE AREA
LATE SUN INTO TUE. GOOD CHANCES FOR CONVECTION SAT. PRECIPITATION TYPE
AND CHANCES WILL TIED TO THE POSITION OF THE FRONT SUN AND MON.
FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL BE FAR ENOUGH S TO KEEP THE
CWA FIRMLY IN THE COLDER AIRMASS WITH EASTERLY WINDS AND RAIN
CHANCES AS OPPOSED TO SHOWERS AND TSTMS. HOWEVER...THIS IS STILL
FAR OUT AND EVEN A FRONTAL POSITION JUST S OF THE CWA COULD ALLOW
FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PERSISTENT OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH VFR
MUCH OF THE TIME. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR OR
BELOW IN LOW STRATUS/FOG LATE TONIGHT ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST.
KSWF HAS A LOW CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...BUT
PROBABILITY TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

S-SW WINDS NEAR 10 GUSTING TO NEAR 15 KT INCREASE FURTHER THIS
AFTERNOON TO NEAR 15 KT WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT. WINDS DIMINISH THIS
EVENING BUT A FEW HRS LATER FOR CITY TERMINALS.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY BE A FEW KTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY BE A FEW KTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY BE A FEW KTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY BE A FEW KTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY BE A FEW KTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY BE A FEW KTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW CHANCE OF EARLY MORNING MVFR
STRATUS. LOW CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
SHRA/TSTM...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE NYC METRO TERMINALS.
SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT.
.THURSDAY-SATURDAY...THIS IS A CHANCE OF LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING MVFR OR LOWER STRATUS AND/OR FOG. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHRA/TSTM. WIND GUSTS 20-25 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE CONTINUED WITH SCA ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON TO AROUND 25 KT HELPING
TO KEEP SEAS AT AROUND 5 FT. HAVE ALSO ISSUED AN SCA FOR NY HARBOR
AND THE S SHORE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND FROM 16Z TODAY THROUGH 4Z
TONIGHT FOR GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT WITH THE SEABREEZE. ON THE
REMAINDER OF THE WATERS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT..EXPECT GUSTS TO TOP
OUT AT 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF DENSE FOG TO FORM OVER THE
WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHAT FORMS
COULD ALSO JUST END UP BEING AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS. TO SOON TO
TELL...SO WENT WITH PATCHY FOG LOWERING VISIBILITIES TO 1-3NM.

FOR WINDS AND WAVES ON WEDNESDAY...ITS LIKELY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY/TODAY WITH SCA SEAS ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS ALL
DAY...AND GUSTS TO 25 KT ON THE COASTAL OCEAN ZONES/NY HARBOR/S
SHORE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE
IS NOT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH TO EXTEND THE SCA INTO WEDNESDAY AT THIS
TIME.

SCA SEAS REMAIN ON THE OCEAN WED NIGHT THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
THRU THE DAY ON THU. WINDS WILL BE MARGINAL ON THE OCEAN AND S
SHORE BAYS...AND BELOW SCA LEVELS ELSEWHERE. LIGHTER FLOW THU
THRU FRI NIGHT WITH CONDITIONS BELOW SCA LEVELS. WINDS AND SEAS
BUILD ON SAT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY
SUNSET...ESPECIALLY THE OCEAN. AS THE FRONT STALLS S OF THE WATERS
SUN AND MON...NE FLOW WOULD DRIVE SEAS TO 5 FT OR MORE ON THE
OCEAN...WITH WIND SPEEDS IN THE 15-25KT RANGE ALL WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GENERALLY LESS THAN 1/10 OF AN INCH OF BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER ANY STRONGER CONVECTION THAT
FORMS...ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS ANY TRAINING OF STORMS...COULD
LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AND/OR POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT IMPACTS THE AREA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ338-345.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...JMC/MALOIT/DS
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...BC/JM
MARINE...JMC/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...JMC/MALOIT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 261406
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1006 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE TODAY AND INTO TOMORROW.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY...WITH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY HAVING THE HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE...FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK. MADE SOME MINOR
UPDATES TO THE TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
LATEST TRENDS. TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY CLIMBED INTO THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S MOST LOCATIONS...WITH MID 60S ON THE SOUTH
COAST...CAPE AND ISLANDS.

TODAY...

BERMUDA HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. DESCENT AMOUNT OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP CLOUDS AROUND
AS HIGH TEMPS WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S AWAY FROM THE SOUTH
COAST. GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL STREAM THE STABLE MARITIME
AIR ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST OF RI AND MASS...INCLUDING THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS KEEPING TEMPS INTO THE 70S.

OTHERWISE THE FOCUS IS TURNED TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR TODAY. WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PASS NORTH OF
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WHICH COULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS
AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE A LOW CONFIDENCE AS TEMPS ALOFT REMAIN
WARM AND HEIGHTS DROP ONLY SLIGHTLY....LIMITING POTENTIAL AND
COVERAGE. HOWEVER WE DO HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE BUT INSTABILITY
WILL BE MARGINAL AS CLOUDS WILL LIMIT HEATING TODAY...YET WE STILL
COULD SEE CAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG. BELIEVE LOCATIONS WEST TO
THE REGION WILL SEE THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY AS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND MAY SEE JUST A FEW POP-UP SHOWERS. BEST LOCATIONS FOR THE
POTENTIAL WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN CT AND WESTERN MASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...

WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
CONTINUE TO BRING IN HIGHER DEWPOINTS. THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE AND THE
ISLAND AS 60F DEWPOINTS STREAM OVER THE COOLER OCEAN. IN FACT WE
COULD SEE LOCALLY DENSE FOG BUT BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY...HELD
OFF ON DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

ANY LEFT OVER CONVECTION ACROSS NEW YORK WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
MOVE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN A WEAKEN STATE OVERNIGHT. SEVERAL
GUIDANCE MEMBERS SUGGEST THIS WILL OCCUR BUT SPLIT ON WHERE THIS
WILL OCCUR. THE NAM SAYS THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTH COAST WHILE THE GFS/EC SHOWS THAT THE POTENTIAL WILL BE
ACROSS THE MASS PIKE. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY KEPT SLIGHT CHC
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.

TOMORROW...

WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
BE A TAD STRONGER KEEPING TEMPS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST IN THE 70S
WHILE THE INTERIOR WARMS INTO THE MID 80S. SOUTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS
WILL GUST BETWEEN 20-30 KTS.

COULD SEE LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE MORNING HOURS...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD
BREAK DURING THE AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD DOMINATE THE
REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY WORKS IT WAY
EASTWARD. FEEL WEDNESDAY HAS THE BETTER POTENTIAL TO SEE A FEW
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND MODEST
SOUTHERLY FLOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CT AND WESTERN MA. ASIDE FROM THE
ABUNDANT MOISTURE...CAPE VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG
WITH ABOUT 25 KTS OF SHEAR. PWAT VALUES WILL BE ABOUT 1.6 INCHES
COMBINED WITH A DESCENT SOUTHERLY LLJ AND WARM CLOUD PROCESSES PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...ANY THUNDERSTORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
VERY HEAVY RAIN. HAVE ADDED ENHANCED WORDING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL TO
THE FORECAST. COULD SEE SOME STRONG WINDS GUSTS BUT BELIEVE HEAVY
RAIN IS THE MAIN THREAT.

FOG WILL BEGIN TO REDEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTH COAST BY THE EVENING
HOURS LIMITING VISIBILITIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME...AND VERY SUMMER-LIKE. BERMUDA
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE...WITH A DEEP RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST...
SHOULD MEAN PLENTY OF OPPORTUNITIES FOR WARMER WEATHER THIS WEEK.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY GETS CLOSER TO OUR REGION LATE THIS WEEK AND
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH TIMING VARIES SOME AMONGST THE MODELS. WITH A
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE...AND THIS BOUNDARY BECOMING NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE MID-LEVEL FLOW...AM NOT EXPECTING A CLEAN FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WILL FAVOR THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION TIMING FOR NOW...AND
LEAVE THE WINDOW FOR ANY POTENTIAL FRONT RATHER BROAD.

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAY SEE AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP...WHICH COULD BE
LOCALLY DENSE...ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S AND SE COASTS AS DEWPOINTS
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE.

THURSDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHES OUT BUT STILL SOME INSTABILITY
LINGERING WITH SOUPY AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION. INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS ON WED...AND STRONGEST WINDS ARE
FARTHER NORTH...BUT STILL DECENT BY NEW ENGLAND STANDARDS. SO WE
COULD SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS AS MID LAYER STARTS TO COOL A BIT
LENDING TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY. SOMEWHAT LOWER PWATS...AROUND 1.5
INCHES...BUT STILL ENOUGH WITH THE HIGH DEWPOINTS FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL FROM ANY CONVECTION. EXPECTING AREAS OF FOG TO REDEVELOP
ALONG S COASTAL AREAS THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING.

FRIDAY...WHILE ANOTHER BOUNDARY TENDS TO WEAKEN OVER THE REGION...
NOT A WHOLE LOT OF FORCING OVER OUR REGION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
HOWEVER...STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS. ONE
MORE ROUND OF FOG LOOKS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST MAINLY FROM
COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY SOUTHWARD.

SATURDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON THEIR SOLUTIONS AS ANOTHER
FRONT TRIES TO SLIP SE OUT OF SOUTHERN QUEBEC. LOOKS LIKE MORE
DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS INLAND
AREAS.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT LEND
TO LOW CONFIDENCE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. IN ANY EVENT...HAVE MORE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY AS A FRONT LOOKS TO
SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS THE REGION...THEN STALLING NEAR OR JUST OFF THE
SOUTH COAST MONDAY...WITH LOWER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. MAY SEE DRIER
AIR WORK INTO NORTHERN MA DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...VFR. CHANCE OF A TSTM WITH MVFR VSBYS/CIGS ACROSS
CT/PIONEER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. IFR STRATUS AND FOG WILL
INCREASE ACROSS SOUTH COAST LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

TONIGHT...VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR IN AREAS OF FOG
PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS. COULD SEE
PASSING SHOWER/TSTORM OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...IFR ALONG THE SOUTH COAST DURING THE MORNING SHOULD
PUSH OFFSHORE. ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...DROPPING TO MVFR WITHIN ANY -SHRA/-TSRA THAT DEVELOPS.
EXPECT SW WINDS TO GUST UP TO 20-25 KT AT TIMES MAINLY ACROSS
RI/SE MA WED AFTERNOON/EVENING.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. COULD SEE CONDITIONS DROP
TO MVFR WITHIN A POP-UP THUNDERSTORM TODAY.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP WED NIGHT WITH MVFR-IFR
VSBYS. MAY SEE PATCHY LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH OCEAN CLOUDS/DENSE FOG
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S AND SE COASTS OVERNIGHT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...EXPECT CHANCE FOR -SHRA/TSRA WITH LOCAL
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS. WILL ALSO SEE AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP EACH LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PERIOD WITH IFR-LIFR VSBYS.

SATURDAY...PATCHY FOG EARLY SAT MORNING WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE. SCT SHRA/TSRA SAT THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH LOCAL
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY...S-SW WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25 KT AT TIMES SAT AFTERNOON/
EVENING...MAINLY ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS MAY LINGERING THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD
END SUN NIGHT. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

10 AM UPDATE...INCREASED WIND GUSTS BASED ON MARINE OBSERVATIONS.
THIS RESULTED IN THE NEED FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ON BLOCK
ISLAND SOUND AND MASSACHUSETTS BAY AND IPSWICH BAY SO HAVE
EXPANDED THE SCA ACCORDINGLY.

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
HELP BUILD SEAS AND SWELL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS BY TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW. OTHERWISE EXPANDED THE SCA FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS AS
GUSTS WILL REACH 25KTS DURING THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...AREAS
OF FOG ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP TONIGHT...REDUCING VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

S-SW WINDS REMAIN PERSISTENT WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KT...
MAINLY THU INTO THU NIGHT. SEAS LINGERING AT AROUND 5 FT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS THROUGH THU...THEN SHOULD SUBSIDE. VSBYS
REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DENSE OFFSHORE BOTH THU AND FRI
NIGHTS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...BELK/DUNTEN/RLG
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 261406
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1006 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE TODAY AND INTO TOMORROW.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY...WITH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY HAVING THE HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE...FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK. MADE SOME MINOR
UPDATES TO THE TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
LATEST TRENDS. TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY CLIMBED INTO THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S MOST LOCATIONS...WITH MID 60S ON THE SOUTH
COAST...CAPE AND ISLANDS.

TODAY...

BERMUDA HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. DESCENT AMOUNT OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP CLOUDS AROUND
AS HIGH TEMPS WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S AWAY FROM THE SOUTH
COAST. GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL STREAM THE STABLE MARITIME
AIR ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST OF RI AND MASS...INCLUDING THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS KEEPING TEMPS INTO THE 70S.

OTHERWISE THE FOCUS IS TURNED TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR TODAY. WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PASS NORTH OF
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WHICH COULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS
AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE A LOW CONFIDENCE AS TEMPS ALOFT REMAIN
WARM AND HEIGHTS DROP ONLY SLIGHTLY....LIMITING POTENTIAL AND
COVERAGE. HOWEVER WE DO HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE BUT INSTABILITY
WILL BE MARGINAL AS CLOUDS WILL LIMIT HEATING TODAY...YET WE STILL
COULD SEE CAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG. BELIEVE LOCATIONS WEST TO
THE REGION WILL SEE THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY AS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND MAY SEE JUST A FEW POP-UP SHOWERS. BEST LOCATIONS FOR THE
POTENTIAL WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN CT AND WESTERN MASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...

WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
CONTINUE TO BRING IN HIGHER DEWPOINTS. THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE AND THE
ISLAND AS 60F DEWPOINTS STREAM OVER THE COOLER OCEAN. IN FACT WE
COULD SEE LOCALLY DENSE FOG BUT BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY...HELD
OFF ON DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

ANY LEFT OVER CONVECTION ACROSS NEW YORK WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
MOVE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN A WEAKEN STATE OVERNIGHT. SEVERAL
GUIDANCE MEMBERS SUGGEST THIS WILL OCCUR BUT SPLIT ON WHERE THIS
WILL OCCUR. THE NAM SAYS THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTH COAST WHILE THE GFS/EC SHOWS THAT THE POTENTIAL WILL BE
ACROSS THE MASS PIKE. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY KEPT SLIGHT CHC
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.

TOMORROW...

WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
BE A TAD STRONGER KEEPING TEMPS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST IN THE 70S
WHILE THE INTERIOR WARMS INTO THE MID 80S. SOUTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS
WILL GUST BETWEEN 20-30 KTS.

COULD SEE LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE MORNING HOURS...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD
BREAK DURING THE AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD DOMINATE THE
REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY WORKS IT WAY
EASTWARD. FEEL WEDNESDAY HAS THE BETTER POTENTIAL TO SEE A FEW
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND MODEST
SOUTHERLY FLOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CT AND WESTERN MA. ASIDE FROM THE
ABUNDANT MOISTURE...CAPE VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG
WITH ABOUT 25 KTS OF SHEAR. PWAT VALUES WILL BE ABOUT 1.6 INCHES
COMBINED WITH A DESCENT SOUTHERLY LLJ AND WARM CLOUD PROCESSES PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...ANY THUNDERSTORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
VERY HEAVY RAIN. HAVE ADDED ENHANCED WORDING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL TO
THE FORECAST. COULD SEE SOME STRONG WINDS GUSTS BUT BELIEVE HEAVY
RAIN IS THE MAIN THREAT.

FOG WILL BEGIN TO REDEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTH COAST BY THE EVENING
HOURS LIMITING VISIBILITIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME...AND VERY SUMMER-LIKE. BERMUDA
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE...WITH A DEEP RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST...
SHOULD MEAN PLENTY OF OPPORTUNITIES FOR WARMER WEATHER THIS WEEK.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY GETS CLOSER TO OUR REGION LATE THIS WEEK AND
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH TIMING VARIES SOME AMONGST THE MODELS. WITH A
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE...AND THIS BOUNDARY BECOMING NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE MID-LEVEL FLOW...AM NOT EXPECTING A CLEAN FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WILL FAVOR THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION TIMING FOR NOW...AND
LEAVE THE WINDOW FOR ANY POTENTIAL FRONT RATHER BROAD.

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAY SEE AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP...WHICH COULD BE
LOCALLY DENSE...ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S AND SE COASTS AS DEWPOINTS
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE.

THURSDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHES OUT BUT STILL SOME INSTABILITY
LINGERING WITH SOUPY AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION. INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS ON WED...AND STRONGEST WINDS ARE
FARTHER NORTH...BUT STILL DECENT BY NEW ENGLAND STANDARDS. SO WE
COULD SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS AS MID LAYER STARTS TO COOL A BIT
LENDING TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY. SOMEWHAT LOWER PWATS...AROUND 1.5
INCHES...BUT STILL ENOUGH WITH THE HIGH DEWPOINTS FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL FROM ANY CONVECTION. EXPECTING AREAS OF FOG TO REDEVELOP
ALONG S COASTAL AREAS THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING.

FRIDAY...WHILE ANOTHER BOUNDARY TENDS TO WEAKEN OVER THE REGION...
NOT A WHOLE LOT OF FORCING OVER OUR REGION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
HOWEVER...STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS. ONE
MORE ROUND OF FOG LOOKS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST MAINLY FROM
COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY SOUTHWARD.

SATURDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON THEIR SOLUTIONS AS ANOTHER
FRONT TRIES TO SLIP SE OUT OF SOUTHERN QUEBEC. LOOKS LIKE MORE
DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS INLAND
AREAS.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT LEND
TO LOW CONFIDENCE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. IN ANY EVENT...HAVE MORE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY AS A FRONT LOOKS TO
SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS THE REGION...THEN STALLING NEAR OR JUST OFF THE
SOUTH COAST MONDAY...WITH LOWER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. MAY SEE DRIER
AIR WORK INTO NORTHERN MA DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...VFR. CHANCE OF A TSTM WITH MVFR VSBYS/CIGS ACROSS
CT/PIONEER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. IFR STRATUS AND FOG WILL
INCREASE ACROSS SOUTH COAST LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

TONIGHT...VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR IN AREAS OF FOG
PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS. COULD SEE
PASSING SHOWER/TSTORM OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...IFR ALONG THE SOUTH COAST DURING THE MORNING SHOULD
PUSH OFFSHORE. ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...DROPPING TO MVFR WITHIN ANY -SHRA/-TSRA THAT DEVELOPS.
EXPECT SW WINDS TO GUST UP TO 20-25 KT AT TIMES MAINLY ACROSS
RI/SE MA WED AFTERNOON/EVENING.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. COULD SEE CONDITIONS DROP
TO MVFR WITHIN A POP-UP THUNDERSTORM TODAY.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP WED NIGHT WITH MVFR-IFR
VSBYS. MAY SEE PATCHY LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH OCEAN CLOUDS/DENSE FOG
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S AND SE COASTS OVERNIGHT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...EXPECT CHANCE FOR -SHRA/TSRA WITH LOCAL
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS. WILL ALSO SEE AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP EACH LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PERIOD WITH IFR-LIFR VSBYS.

SATURDAY...PATCHY FOG EARLY SAT MORNING WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE. SCT SHRA/TSRA SAT THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH LOCAL
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY...S-SW WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25 KT AT TIMES SAT AFTERNOON/
EVENING...MAINLY ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS MAY LINGERING THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD
END SUN NIGHT. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

10 AM UPDATE...INCREASED WIND GUSTS BASED ON MARINE OBSERVATIONS.
THIS RESULTED IN THE NEED FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ON BLOCK
ISLAND SOUND AND MASSACHUSETTS BAY AND IPSWICH BAY SO HAVE
EXPANDED THE SCA ACCORDINGLY.

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
HELP BUILD SEAS AND SWELL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS BY TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW. OTHERWISE EXPANDED THE SCA FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS AS
GUSTS WILL REACH 25KTS DURING THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...AREAS
OF FOG ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP TONIGHT...REDUCING VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

S-SW WINDS REMAIN PERSISTENT WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KT...
MAINLY THU INTO THU NIGHT. SEAS LINGERING AT AROUND 5 FT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS THROUGH THU...THEN SHOULD SUBSIDE. VSBYS
REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DENSE OFFSHORE BOTH THU AND FRI
NIGHTS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...BELK/DUNTEN/RLG
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 261406
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1006 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE TODAY AND INTO TOMORROW.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY...WITH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY HAVING THE HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE...FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK. MADE SOME MINOR
UPDATES TO THE TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
LATEST TRENDS. TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY CLIMBED INTO THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S MOST LOCATIONS...WITH MID 60S ON THE SOUTH
COAST...CAPE AND ISLANDS.

TODAY...

BERMUDA HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. DESCENT AMOUNT OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP CLOUDS AROUND
AS HIGH TEMPS WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S AWAY FROM THE SOUTH
COAST. GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL STREAM THE STABLE MARITIME
AIR ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST OF RI AND MASS...INCLUDING THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS KEEPING TEMPS INTO THE 70S.

OTHERWISE THE FOCUS IS TURNED TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR TODAY. WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PASS NORTH OF
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WHICH COULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS
AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE A LOW CONFIDENCE AS TEMPS ALOFT REMAIN
WARM AND HEIGHTS DROP ONLY SLIGHTLY....LIMITING POTENTIAL AND
COVERAGE. HOWEVER WE DO HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE BUT INSTABILITY
WILL BE MARGINAL AS CLOUDS WILL LIMIT HEATING TODAY...YET WE STILL
COULD SEE CAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG. BELIEVE LOCATIONS WEST TO
THE REGION WILL SEE THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY AS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND MAY SEE JUST A FEW POP-UP SHOWERS. BEST LOCATIONS FOR THE
POTENTIAL WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN CT AND WESTERN MASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...

WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
CONTINUE TO BRING IN HIGHER DEWPOINTS. THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE AND THE
ISLAND AS 60F DEWPOINTS STREAM OVER THE COOLER OCEAN. IN FACT WE
COULD SEE LOCALLY DENSE FOG BUT BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY...HELD
OFF ON DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

ANY LEFT OVER CONVECTION ACROSS NEW YORK WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
MOVE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN A WEAKEN STATE OVERNIGHT. SEVERAL
GUIDANCE MEMBERS SUGGEST THIS WILL OCCUR BUT SPLIT ON WHERE THIS
WILL OCCUR. THE NAM SAYS THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTH COAST WHILE THE GFS/EC SHOWS THAT THE POTENTIAL WILL BE
ACROSS THE MASS PIKE. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY KEPT SLIGHT CHC
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.

TOMORROW...

WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
BE A TAD STRONGER KEEPING TEMPS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST IN THE 70S
WHILE THE INTERIOR WARMS INTO THE MID 80S. SOUTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS
WILL GUST BETWEEN 20-30 KTS.

COULD SEE LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE MORNING HOURS...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD
BREAK DURING THE AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD DOMINATE THE
REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY WORKS IT WAY
EASTWARD. FEEL WEDNESDAY HAS THE BETTER POTENTIAL TO SEE A FEW
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND MODEST
SOUTHERLY FLOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CT AND WESTERN MA. ASIDE FROM THE
ABUNDANT MOISTURE...CAPE VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG
WITH ABOUT 25 KTS OF SHEAR. PWAT VALUES WILL BE ABOUT 1.6 INCHES
COMBINED WITH A DESCENT SOUTHERLY LLJ AND WARM CLOUD PROCESSES PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...ANY THUNDERSTORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
VERY HEAVY RAIN. HAVE ADDED ENHANCED WORDING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL TO
THE FORECAST. COULD SEE SOME STRONG WINDS GUSTS BUT BELIEVE HEAVY
RAIN IS THE MAIN THREAT.

FOG WILL BEGIN TO REDEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTH COAST BY THE EVENING
HOURS LIMITING VISIBILITIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME...AND VERY SUMMER-LIKE. BERMUDA
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE...WITH A DEEP RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST...
SHOULD MEAN PLENTY OF OPPORTUNITIES FOR WARMER WEATHER THIS WEEK.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY GETS CLOSER TO OUR REGION LATE THIS WEEK AND
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH TIMING VARIES SOME AMONGST THE MODELS. WITH A
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE...AND THIS BOUNDARY BECOMING NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE MID-LEVEL FLOW...AM NOT EXPECTING A CLEAN FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WILL FAVOR THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION TIMING FOR NOW...AND
LEAVE THE WINDOW FOR ANY POTENTIAL FRONT RATHER BROAD.

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAY SEE AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP...WHICH COULD BE
LOCALLY DENSE...ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S AND SE COASTS AS DEWPOINTS
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE.

THURSDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHES OUT BUT STILL SOME INSTABILITY
LINGERING WITH SOUPY AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION. INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS ON WED...AND STRONGEST WINDS ARE
FARTHER NORTH...BUT STILL DECENT BY NEW ENGLAND STANDARDS. SO WE
COULD SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS AS MID LAYER STARTS TO COOL A BIT
LENDING TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY. SOMEWHAT LOWER PWATS...AROUND 1.5
INCHES...BUT STILL ENOUGH WITH THE HIGH DEWPOINTS FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL FROM ANY CONVECTION. EXPECTING AREAS OF FOG TO REDEVELOP
ALONG S COASTAL AREAS THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING.

FRIDAY...WHILE ANOTHER BOUNDARY TENDS TO WEAKEN OVER THE REGION...
NOT A WHOLE LOT OF FORCING OVER OUR REGION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
HOWEVER...STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS. ONE
MORE ROUND OF FOG LOOKS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST MAINLY FROM
COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY SOUTHWARD.

SATURDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON THEIR SOLUTIONS AS ANOTHER
FRONT TRIES TO SLIP SE OUT OF SOUTHERN QUEBEC. LOOKS LIKE MORE
DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS INLAND
AREAS.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT LEND
TO LOW CONFIDENCE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. IN ANY EVENT...HAVE MORE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY AS A FRONT LOOKS TO
SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS THE REGION...THEN STALLING NEAR OR JUST OFF THE
SOUTH COAST MONDAY...WITH LOWER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. MAY SEE DRIER
AIR WORK INTO NORTHERN MA DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...VFR. CHANCE OF A TSTM WITH MVFR VSBYS/CIGS ACROSS
CT/PIONEER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. IFR STRATUS AND FOG WILL
INCREASE ACROSS SOUTH COAST LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

TONIGHT...VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR IN AREAS OF FOG
PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS. COULD SEE
PASSING SHOWER/TSTORM OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...IFR ALONG THE SOUTH COAST DURING THE MORNING SHOULD
PUSH OFFSHORE. ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...DROPPING TO MVFR WITHIN ANY -SHRA/-TSRA THAT DEVELOPS.
EXPECT SW WINDS TO GUST UP TO 20-25 KT AT TIMES MAINLY ACROSS
RI/SE MA WED AFTERNOON/EVENING.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. COULD SEE CONDITIONS DROP
TO MVFR WITHIN A POP-UP THUNDERSTORM TODAY.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP WED NIGHT WITH MVFR-IFR
VSBYS. MAY SEE PATCHY LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH OCEAN CLOUDS/DENSE FOG
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S AND SE COASTS OVERNIGHT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...EXPECT CHANCE FOR -SHRA/TSRA WITH LOCAL
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS. WILL ALSO SEE AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP EACH LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PERIOD WITH IFR-LIFR VSBYS.

SATURDAY...PATCHY FOG EARLY SAT MORNING WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE. SCT SHRA/TSRA SAT THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH LOCAL
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY...S-SW WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25 KT AT TIMES SAT AFTERNOON/
EVENING...MAINLY ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS MAY LINGERING THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD
END SUN NIGHT. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

10 AM UPDATE...INCREASED WIND GUSTS BASED ON MARINE OBSERVATIONS.
THIS RESULTED IN THE NEED FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ON BLOCK
ISLAND SOUND AND MASSACHUSETTS BAY AND IPSWICH BAY SO HAVE
EXPANDED THE SCA ACCORDINGLY.

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
HELP BUILD SEAS AND SWELL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS BY TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW. OTHERWISE EXPANDED THE SCA FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS AS
GUSTS WILL REACH 25KTS DURING THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...AREAS
OF FOG ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP TONIGHT...REDUCING VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

S-SW WINDS REMAIN PERSISTENT WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KT...
MAINLY THU INTO THU NIGHT. SEAS LINGERING AT AROUND 5 FT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS THROUGH THU...THEN SHOULD SUBSIDE. VSBYS
REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DENSE OFFSHORE BOTH THU AND FRI
NIGHTS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...BELK/DUNTEN/RLG
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KALY 261353
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
953 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING THROUGH MID WEEK. SOME
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 950 AM EDT...CLOUDS WERE BEGINNING TO ERODE FROM W TO E
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS...AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
PASSES THROUGH...AND SUBSIDENCE OVERSPREADS THE REGION. CLOUDS
WILL LINGER LONGER ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
NW CT...WHERE ONLY OCCASIONAL BREAKS MAY DEVELOP THROUGH NOONTIME.

SO...THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION LATER THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
CLEARING TO DEVELOP...ESP FOR AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF I-90...WHILE
CLOUDS PERSIST FURTHER SOUTH. THEN...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE
CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO WILL APPROACH WESTERN AREAS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS COULD TRIGGER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THIS DISTURBANCE...ESP ACROSS
THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND POSSIBLY THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
CAPITAL REGION AFTER 3 PM. MORNING UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS SUCH AS
BUF/PBZ AND ILN ARE NOT PARTICULARLY UNSTABLE...WITH RATHER WEAK
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER...SHOULD WE GET A PERIOD OF
SUNSHINE AND TEMPS RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S...THEN INSTABILITY WILL
BE SLIGHTLY GREATER AND ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR. ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS COULD CONTAIN
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ESP GIVEN PWAT/S APPROACHING 1.25-1.50
INCHES.

AS FOR MAX TEMPS...DESPITE A SOMEWHAT SLOW RISE DUE TO THE MORNING
CLOUDS...WE STILL ANTICIPATE MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER
80S IN MOST VALLEY AREAS...AND UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON AS BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THIS
MORNING/S SHORTWAVE PASSAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
BETTER AND MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR CONVECTION EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND HEIGHTS WILL FALL SOME ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER
LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AS THE RIGHT-REAR
QUADRANT OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL BE LOCATED OVER
EASTERN CANADA AND MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST. ACROSS THE REGION
WE WILL HAVE DEW POINTS IN THE 60S AND MODEST SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP
LAYER SHEAR SO STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER CONTINUES TO KEEP OUR AREA UNDER MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER...HOWEVER DOES NOTE THAT IF GREATER
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED THEN AN UPGRADE TO A SLIGHT RISK MAY BE
NEEDED. CONTINUE TO HAVE MENTION OF STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE FOR
WEDNESDAY IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND ADDED GUSTY WINDS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A COUPLE/FEW DEGREES LOWER WEDNESDAY
THAN THURSDAY DUE TO MORE CLOUD COVER AND THE CONVECTION...MID
70S TO MID 80S.

THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS EASTWARD INTO THE
RIDGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY SHEARING OUT WITH TIME. ALONG
WITH TROUGH A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO AND ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL
PERSIST UNTIL THE SHORT WAVE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND BOUNDARY
SHIFTS THROUGH BUT DECREASE IN TIME AS THE FEATURES WEAKEN. IT
WILL NOT BE AS HOT OR HUMID THURSDAY HOWEVER ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE...HIGHS LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5+ INCHES STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST OPENS WITH HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDING
IN OVER ERN NY AND NEW ENGLAND IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THE GFS/ECMWF/CAN GGEM HAVE TRENDED DRIER FOR THIS DAY.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY STALL CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE SRN NEW ENGLAND
AND NJ COAST FOR SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR. A SLIGHT TO LOW
CHC THREAT WAS KEPT IN FOR THE AFTERNOON TIME FRAME FOR THE FCST
AREA WITH LOW CHANCE POPS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. H850 TEMPS
WILL STILL BE IN THE +13C TO +15C RANGE WITH MEAN UPPER RIDING
OVER THE REGION. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE
VALLEYS...AND M70S TO NEAR 80F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. ANY SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL
HEATING. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60-65F RANGE IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND M50S TO 60F OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

SAT-SUN...A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS
CNTRL CANADA...THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION. BROAD
SW FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE EAST
COAST WILL KEEP THE HUMID AIR MASS AROUND FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND.  THE COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING ON SATURDAY WITH AN
UNSTABLE AIR MASS AHEAD OF IT...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE.  SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE
STRONG DEPENDING ON THE EXACT AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AVAILABLE.  THE
LATEST GFS HAS SFC DEWPTS WELL INTO THE 60S WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-
2000 J/KG.  PWATS INCREASE BACK TO 1.33-1.75 INCHES OVER THE FCST
AREA.  SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE LIKELY WITH ANY CONVECTION.  WE
EXPECT THE SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM TO CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN
THE MID AND U80S OVER THE VALLEY AREAS...AND M70S TO L80S IN THE
MTNS.  MUCH COOLER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLING NEAR THE REGION.  OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND SOME
ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER ON THE 2ND HALF OF THE WEEKEND NOW.
HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S TO L70S OVER THE FCST AREA.

SUN NIGHT TO MONDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE DIVERGES ON WHERE
THE FRONT GOES TO START NEXT WEEK.  THE ECMWF PUSHES THE FRONT SOUTH
OF THE FCST AREA WITH A 1032 HPA SFC ANTICYCLONE RIDGING IN FROM SRN
QUEBEC.  COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WOULD PREVAIL.  THE WPC GUIDANCE
IS STARTING TO LEAN TOWARDS THE ECMWF SCENARIO WITH THE SFC RIDGE
WINNING OUT...AND THE FRONT STALLING NEAR DC AND THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION.  THE GFS HAS A SOAKER FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK WITH A
WAVE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT...AND A STRONG LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE
BTWN THE WAVE AND SFC HIGH.  OVERALL...WE KEPT A LOW CHC OF SHOWERS
IN FOR MOST OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...AND THEN WENT LOW CHC SOUTH
OF THE CAPITAWARM TEMPERATURES AND INCREASINGLY HUMID CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST FOR THIS WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
ESPECIALLY MID WEEK.

RH VALUES TONIGHT RECOVER BETWEEN 70 AND 90 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN
EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 40 AND 60 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
VALUES BETWEEN 50 AND 70 PERCENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.L REGION ON MONDAY...AND SLIGHT CHC TO THE
NORTH AND WEST. THIS FCST WOULD NEED FINE TUNING IF THE GFS IS
RIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE RUNNING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TO OPEN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND WILL BE IN A WARM SECTOR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TODAY INTO TOMORROW. SOME
POP UP ISOLD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE THIS MORNING FOR
KGFL/KALB/KPSF/KPOU WITH VFR CONDITIONS.  THE CLOUDS WILL THIN LATE
THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS AROUND WITH SCT-BKN
CUMULUS FOR THE PM.  SOME POP-UP SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP BY THE MID TO LATE PM IN THE HUMID AIR MASS.  VCSH GROUPS
AND CIGS BKN050-060 WERE USED FOR THE TERMINALS.

THE SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING.
THE INCREASED MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND ANY LOCATIONS THAT
MAY GET WET...MAY ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY FOG OR LOW STRATUS TO FORM.
THE BEST CHC FOR AT LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE AT KGFL AND KPSF.

CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PLACE PROB30 OR TEMPO GROUPS IN
FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM SOUTH AT 5-12 KTS THIS MORNING WITH SOME
GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS AT KALB/KPSF.  THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE
S TO SW AT 10-15 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS CLOSE TO 25 KTS AT KALB/KPSF IN
THE AFTERNOON.  EXPECT THE WINDS TO DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KTS
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA. THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA. THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHRA. FRIDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.
CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

MINIMUM RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE LOWER 40S TO LOWER
50S...WITH MINIMUMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS IN THE 50S.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED MODERATE
DROUGHT AT THIS TIME.

WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE BETTER AND MORE
WIDESPREAD CHANCES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INT0 THE EVENING.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5+ INCHES ARE EXPECTED SO STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/KL
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA



000
FXUS61 KALY 261353
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
953 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING THROUGH MID WEEK. SOME
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 950 AM EDT...CLOUDS WERE BEGINNING TO ERODE FROM W TO E
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS...AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
PASSES THROUGH...AND SUBSIDENCE OVERSPREADS THE REGION. CLOUDS
WILL LINGER LONGER ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
NW CT...WHERE ONLY OCCASIONAL BREAKS MAY DEVELOP THROUGH NOONTIME.

SO...THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION LATER THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
CLEARING TO DEVELOP...ESP FOR AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF I-90...WHILE
CLOUDS PERSIST FURTHER SOUTH. THEN...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE
CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO WILL APPROACH WESTERN AREAS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS COULD TRIGGER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THIS DISTURBANCE...ESP ACROSS
THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND POSSIBLY THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
CAPITAL REGION AFTER 3 PM. MORNING UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS SUCH AS
BUF/PBZ AND ILN ARE NOT PARTICULARLY UNSTABLE...WITH RATHER WEAK
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER...SHOULD WE GET A PERIOD OF
SUNSHINE AND TEMPS RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S...THEN INSTABILITY WILL
BE SLIGHTLY GREATER AND ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR. ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS COULD CONTAIN
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ESP GIVEN PWAT/S APPROACHING 1.25-1.50
INCHES.

AS FOR MAX TEMPS...DESPITE A SOMEWHAT SLOW RISE DUE TO THE MORNING
CLOUDS...WE STILL ANTICIPATE MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER
80S IN MOST VALLEY AREAS...AND UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON AS BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THIS
MORNING/S SHORTWAVE PASSAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
BETTER AND MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR CONVECTION EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND HEIGHTS WILL FALL SOME ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER
LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AS THE RIGHT-REAR
QUADRANT OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL BE LOCATED OVER
EASTERN CANADA AND MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST. ACROSS THE REGION
WE WILL HAVE DEW POINTS IN THE 60S AND MODEST SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP
LAYER SHEAR SO STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER CONTINUES TO KEEP OUR AREA UNDER MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER...HOWEVER DOES NOTE THAT IF GREATER
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED THEN AN UPGRADE TO A SLIGHT RISK MAY BE
NEEDED. CONTINUE TO HAVE MENTION OF STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE FOR
WEDNESDAY IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND ADDED GUSTY WINDS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A COUPLE/FEW DEGREES LOWER WEDNESDAY
THAN THURSDAY DUE TO MORE CLOUD COVER AND THE CONVECTION...MID
70S TO MID 80S.

THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS EASTWARD INTO THE
RIDGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY SHEARING OUT WITH TIME. ALONG
WITH TROUGH A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO AND ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL
PERSIST UNTIL THE SHORT WAVE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND BOUNDARY
SHIFTS THROUGH BUT DECREASE IN TIME AS THE FEATURES WEAKEN. IT
WILL NOT BE AS HOT OR HUMID THURSDAY HOWEVER ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE...HIGHS LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5+ INCHES STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST OPENS WITH HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDING
IN OVER ERN NY AND NEW ENGLAND IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THE GFS/ECMWF/CAN GGEM HAVE TRENDED DRIER FOR THIS DAY.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY STALL CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE SRN NEW ENGLAND
AND NJ COAST FOR SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR. A SLIGHT TO LOW
CHC THREAT WAS KEPT IN FOR THE AFTERNOON TIME FRAME FOR THE FCST
AREA WITH LOW CHANCE POPS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. H850 TEMPS
WILL STILL BE IN THE +13C TO +15C RANGE WITH MEAN UPPER RIDING
OVER THE REGION. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE
VALLEYS...AND M70S TO NEAR 80F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. ANY SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL
HEATING. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60-65F RANGE IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND M50S TO 60F OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

SAT-SUN...A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS
CNTRL CANADA...THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION. BROAD
SW FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE EAST
COAST WILL KEEP THE HUMID AIR MASS AROUND FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND.  THE COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING ON SATURDAY WITH AN
UNSTABLE AIR MASS AHEAD OF IT...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE.  SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE
STRONG DEPENDING ON THE EXACT AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AVAILABLE.  THE
LATEST GFS HAS SFC DEWPTS WELL INTO THE 60S WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-
2000 J/KG.  PWATS INCREASE BACK TO 1.33-1.75 INCHES OVER THE FCST
AREA.  SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE LIKELY WITH ANY CONVECTION.  WE
EXPECT THE SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM TO CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN
THE MID AND U80S OVER THE VALLEY AREAS...AND M70S TO L80S IN THE
MTNS.  MUCH COOLER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLING NEAR THE REGION.  OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND SOME
ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER ON THE 2ND HALF OF THE WEEKEND NOW.
HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S TO L70S OVER THE FCST AREA.

SUN NIGHT TO MONDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE DIVERGES ON WHERE
THE FRONT GOES TO START NEXT WEEK.  THE ECMWF PUSHES THE FRONT SOUTH
OF THE FCST AREA WITH A 1032 HPA SFC ANTICYCLONE RIDGING IN FROM SRN
QUEBEC.  COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WOULD PREVAIL.  THE WPC GUIDANCE
IS STARTING TO LEAN TOWARDS THE ECMWF SCENARIO WITH THE SFC RIDGE
WINNING OUT...AND THE FRONT STALLING NEAR DC AND THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION.  THE GFS HAS A SOAKER FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK WITH A
WAVE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT...AND A STRONG LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE
BTWN THE WAVE AND SFC HIGH.  OVERALL...WE KEPT A LOW CHC OF SHOWERS
IN FOR MOST OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...AND THEN WENT LOW CHC SOUTH
OF THE CAPITAWARM TEMPERATURES AND INCREASINGLY HUMID CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST FOR THIS WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
ESPECIALLY MID WEEK.

RH VALUES TONIGHT RECOVER BETWEEN 70 AND 90 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN
EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 40 AND 60 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
VALUES BETWEEN 50 AND 70 PERCENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.L REGION ON MONDAY...AND SLIGHT CHC TO THE
NORTH AND WEST. THIS FCST WOULD NEED FINE TUNING IF THE GFS IS
RIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE RUNNING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TO OPEN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND WILL BE IN A WARM SECTOR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TODAY INTO TOMORROW. SOME
POP UP ISOLD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE THIS MORNING FOR
KGFL/KALB/KPSF/KPOU WITH VFR CONDITIONS.  THE CLOUDS WILL THIN LATE
THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS AROUND WITH SCT-BKN
CUMULUS FOR THE PM.  SOME POP-UP SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP BY THE MID TO LATE PM IN THE HUMID AIR MASS.  VCSH GROUPS
AND CIGS BKN050-060 WERE USED FOR THE TERMINALS.

THE SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING.
THE INCREASED MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND ANY LOCATIONS THAT
MAY GET WET...MAY ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY FOG OR LOW STRATUS TO FORM.
THE BEST CHC FOR AT LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE AT KGFL AND KPSF.

CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PLACE PROB30 OR TEMPO GROUPS IN
FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM SOUTH AT 5-12 KTS THIS MORNING WITH SOME
GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS AT KALB/KPSF.  THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE
S TO SW AT 10-15 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS CLOSE TO 25 KTS AT KALB/KPSF IN
THE AFTERNOON.  EXPECT THE WINDS TO DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KTS
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA. THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA. THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHRA. FRIDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.
CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

MINIMUM RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE LOWER 40S TO LOWER
50S...WITH MINIMUMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS IN THE 50S.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED MODERATE
DROUGHT AT THIS TIME.

WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE BETTER AND MORE
WIDESPREAD CHANCES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INT0 THE EVENING.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5+ INCHES ARE EXPECTED SO STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/KL
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA




000
FXUS61 KBOX 261139
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
739 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE TODAY AND INTO TOMORROW.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY...WITH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY HAVING THE HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
740 AM UPDATE...

OVERALL TREND IN THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AS WARM FRONT
CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS NH AND MAINE. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS
ALREADY STARTING TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING AS MIXING GETS UNDERWAY.
ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO BRING NEAR-TERM CONDITIONS BACK IN LINE
WITH OBSERVED TRENDS.

TODAY...

BERMUDA HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. DESCENT AMOUNT OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP CLOUDS AROUND
AS HIGH TEMPS WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S AWAY FROM THE SOUTH
COAST. GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL STREAM THE STABLE MARITIME
AIR ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST OF RI AND MASS...INCLUDING THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS KEEPING TEMPS INTO THE 70S.

OTHERWISE THE FOCUS IS TURNED TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR TODAY. WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PASS NORTH OF
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WHICH COULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS
AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE A LOW CONFIDENCE AS TEMPS ALOFT REMAIN
WARM AND HEIGHTS DROP ONLY SLIGHTLY....LIMITING POTENTIAL AND
COVERAGE. HOWEVER WE DO HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE BUT INSTABILITY
WILL BE MARGINAL AS CLOUDS WILL LIMIT HEATING TODAY...YET WE STILL
COULD SEE CAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG. BELIEVE LOCATIONS WEST TO
THE REGION WILL SEE THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY AS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND MAY SEE JUST A FEW POP-UP SHOWERS. BEST LOCATIONS FOR THE
POTENTIAL WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN CT AND WESTERN MASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...

WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
CONTINUE TO BRING IN HIGHER DEWPOINTS. THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE AND THE
ISLAND AS 60F DEWPOINTS STREAM OVER THE COOLER OCEAN. IN FACT WE
COULD SEE LOCALLY DENSE FOG BUT BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY...HELD
OFF ON DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

ANY LEFT OVER CONVECTION ACROSS NEW YORK WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
MOVE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN A WEAKEN STATE OVERNIGHT. SEVERAL
GUIDANCE MEMBERS SUGGEST THIS WILL OCCUR BUT SPLIT ON WHERE THIS
WILL OCCUR. THE NAM SAYS THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTH COAST WHILE THE GFS/EC SHOWS THAT THE POTENTIAL WILL BE
ACROSS THE MASS PIKE. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY KEPT SLIGHT CHC
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.

TOMORROW...

WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
BE A TAD STRONGER KEEPING TEMPS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST IN THE 70S
WHILE THE INTERIOR WARMS INTO THE MID 80S. SOUTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS
WILL GUST BETWEEN 20-30 KTS.

COULD SEE LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE MORNING HOURS...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD
BREAK DURING THE AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD DOMINATE THE
REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY WORKS IT WAY
EASTWARD. FEEL WEDNESDAY HAS THE BETTER POTENTIAL TO SEE A FEW
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND MODEST
SOUTHERLY FLOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CT AND WESTERN MA. ASIDE FROM THE
ABUNDANT MOISTURE...CAPE VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG
WITH ABOUT 25 KTS OF SHEAR. PWAT VALUES WILL BE ABOUT 1.6 INCHES
COMBINED WITH A DESCENT SOUTHERLY LLJ AND WARM CLOUD PROCESSES PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...ANY THUNDERSTORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
VERY HEAVY RAIN. HAVE ADDED ENHANCED WORDING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL TO
THE FORECAST. COULD SEE SOME STRONG WINDS GUSTS BUT BELIEVE HEAVY
RAIN IS THE MAIN THREAT.

FOG WILL BEGIN TO REDEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTH COAST BY THE EVENING
HOURS LIMITING VISIBILITIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME...AND VERY SUMMER-LIKE. BERMUDA
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE...WITH A DEEP RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST...
SHOULD MEAN PLENTY OF OPPORTUNITIES FOR WARMER WEATHER THIS WEEK.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY GETS CLOSER TO OUR REGION LATE THIS WEEK AND
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH TIMING VARIES SOME AMONGST THE MODELS. WITH A
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE...AND THIS BOUNDARY BECOMING NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE MID-LEVEL FLOW...AM NOT EXPECTING A CLEAN FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WILL FAVOR THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION TIMING FOR NOW...AND
LEAVE THE WINDOW FOR ANY POTENTIAL FRONT RATHER BROAD.

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAY SEE AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP...WHICH COULD BE
LOCALLY DENSE...ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S AND SE COASTS AS DEWPOINTS
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE.

THURSDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHES OUT BUT STILL SOME INSTABILITY
LINGERING WITH SOUPY AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION. INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS ON WED...AND STRONGEST WINDS ARE
FARTHER NORTH...BUT STILL DECENT BY NEW ENGLAND STANDARDS. SO WE
COULD SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS AS MID LAYER STARTS TO COOL A BIT
LENDING TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY. SOMEWHAT LOWER PWATS...AROUND 1.5
INCHES...BUT STILL ENOUGH WITH THE HIGH DEWPOINTS FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL FROM ANY CONVECTION. EXPECTING AREAS OF FOG TO REDEVELOP
ALONG S COASTAL AREAS THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING.

FRIDAY...WHILE ANOTHER BOUNDARY TENDS TO WEAKEN OVER THE REGION...
NOT A WHOLE LOT OF FORCING OVER OUR REGION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
HOWEVER...STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS. ONE
MORE ROUND OF FOG LOOKS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST MAINLY FROM
COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY SOUTHWARD.

SATURDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON THEIR SOLUTIONS AS ANOTHER
FRONT TRIES TO SLIP SE OUT OF SOUTHERN QUEBEC. LOOKS LIKE MORE
DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS INLAND
AREAS.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT LEND
TO LOW CONFIDENCE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. IN ANY EVENT...HAVE MORE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY AS A FRONT LOOKS TO
SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS THE REGION...THEN STALLING NEAR OR JUST OFF THE
SOUTH COAST MONDAY...WITH LOWER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. MAY SEE DRIER
AIR WORK INTO NORTHERN MA DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...VFR. CHANCE OF A TSTM WITH MVFR VSBYS/CIGS ACROSS
CT/PIONEER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. IFR STRATUS AND FOG WILL
INCREASE ACROSS SOUTH COAST LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

TONIGHT...VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR IN AREAS OF FOG
PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS. COULD SEE
PASSING SHOWER/TSTORM OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...IFR ALONG THE SOUTH COAST DURING THE MORNING SHOULD
PUSH OFFSHORE. ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...DROPPING TO MVFR WITHIN ANY -SHRA/-TSRA THAT DEVELOPS.
EXPECT SW WINDS TO GUST UP TO 20-25 KT AT TIMES MAINLY ACROSS
RI/SE MA WED AFTERNOON/EVENING.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. COULD SEE CONDITIONS DROP
TO MVFR WITHIN A POP-UP THUNDERSTORM TODAY.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP WED NIGHT WITH MVFR-IFR
VSBYS. MAY SEE PATCHY LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH OCEAN CLOUDS/DENSE FOG
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S AND SE COASTS OVERNIGHT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...EXPECT CHANCE FOR -SHRA/TSRA WITH LOCAL
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS. WILL ALSO SEE AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP EACH LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PERIOD WITH IFR-LIFR VSBYS.

SATURDAY...PATCHY FOG EARLY SAT MORNING WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE. SCT SHRA/TSRA SAT THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH LOCAL
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY...S-SW WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25 KT AT TIMES SAT AFTERNOON/
EVENING...MAINLY ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS MAY LINGERING THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD
END SUN NIGHT. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
HELP BUILD SEAS AND SWELL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS BY TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW. OTHERWISE EXPANDED THE SCA FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS AS
GUSTS WILL REACH 25KTS DURING THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...AREAS
OF FOG ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP TONIGHT...REDUCING VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

S-SW WINDS REMAIN PERSISTENT WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KT...
MAINLY THU INTO THU NIGHT. SEAS LINGERING AT AROUND 5 FT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS THROUGH THU...THEN SHOULD SUBSIDE. VSBYS
REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DENSE OFFSHORE BOTH THU AND FRI
NIGHTS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...BELK/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 261139
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
739 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE TODAY AND INTO TOMORROW.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY...WITH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY HAVING THE HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
740 AM UPDATE...

OVERALL TREND IN THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AS WARM FRONT
CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS NH AND MAINE. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS
ALREADY STARTING TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING AS MIXING GETS UNDERWAY.
ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO BRING NEAR-TERM CONDITIONS BACK IN LINE
WITH OBSERVED TRENDS.

TODAY...

BERMUDA HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. DESCENT AMOUNT OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP CLOUDS AROUND
AS HIGH TEMPS WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S AWAY FROM THE SOUTH
COAST. GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL STREAM THE STABLE MARITIME
AIR ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST OF RI AND MASS...INCLUDING THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS KEEPING TEMPS INTO THE 70S.

OTHERWISE THE FOCUS IS TURNED TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR TODAY. WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PASS NORTH OF
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WHICH COULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS
AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE A LOW CONFIDENCE AS TEMPS ALOFT REMAIN
WARM AND HEIGHTS DROP ONLY SLIGHTLY....LIMITING POTENTIAL AND
COVERAGE. HOWEVER WE DO HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE BUT INSTABILITY
WILL BE MARGINAL AS CLOUDS WILL LIMIT HEATING TODAY...YET WE STILL
COULD SEE CAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG. BELIEVE LOCATIONS WEST TO
THE REGION WILL SEE THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY AS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND MAY SEE JUST A FEW POP-UP SHOWERS. BEST LOCATIONS FOR THE
POTENTIAL WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN CT AND WESTERN MASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...

WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
CONTINUE TO BRING IN HIGHER DEWPOINTS. THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE AND THE
ISLAND AS 60F DEWPOINTS STREAM OVER THE COOLER OCEAN. IN FACT WE
COULD SEE LOCALLY DENSE FOG BUT BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY...HELD
OFF ON DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

ANY LEFT OVER CONVECTION ACROSS NEW YORK WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
MOVE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN A WEAKEN STATE OVERNIGHT. SEVERAL
GUIDANCE MEMBERS SUGGEST THIS WILL OCCUR BUT SPLIT ON WHERE THIS
WILL OCCUR. THE NAM SAYS THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTH COAST WHILE THE GFS/EC SHOWS THAT THE POTENTIAL WILL BE
ACROSS THE MASS PIKE. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY KEPT SLIGHT CHC
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.

TOMORROW...

WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
BE A TAD STRONGER KEEPING TEMPS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST IN THE 70S
WHILE THE INTERIOR WARMS INTO THE MID 80S. SOUTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS
WILL GUST BETWEEN 20-30 KTS.

COULD SEE LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE MORNING HOURS...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD
BREAK DURING THE AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD DOMINATE THE
REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY WORKS IT WAY
EASTWARD. FEEL WEDNESDAY HAS THE BETTER POTENTIAL TO SEE A FEW
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND MODEST
SOUTHERLY FLOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CT AND WESTERN MA. ASIDE FROM THE
ABUNDANT MOISTURE...CAPE VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG
WITH ABOUT 25 KTS OF SHEAR. PWAT VALUES WILL BE ABOUT 1.6 INCHES
COMBINED WITH A DESCENT SOUTHERLY LLJ AND WARM CLOUD PROCESSES PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...ANY THUNDERSTORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
VERY HEAVY RAIN. HAVE ADDED ENHANCED WORDING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL TO
THE FORECAST. COULD SEE SOME STRONG WINDS GUSTS BUT BELIEVE HEAVY
RAIN IS THE MAIN THREAT.

FOG WILL BEGIN TO REDEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTH COAST BY THE EVENING
HOURS LIMITING VISIBILITIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME...AND VERY SUMMER-LIKE. BERMUDA
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE...WITH A DEEP RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST...
SHOULD MEAN PLENTY OF OPPORTUNITIES FOR WARMER WEATHER THIS WEEK.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY GETS CLOSER TO OUR REGION LATE THIS WEEK AND
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH TIMING VARIES SOME AMONGST THE MODELS. WITH A
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE...AND THIS BOUNDARY BECOMING NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE MID-LEVEL FLOW...AM NOT EXPECTING A CLEAN FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WILL FAVOR THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION TIMING FOR NOW...AND
LEAVE THE WINDOW FOR ANY POTENTIAL FRONT RATHER BROAD.

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAY SEE AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP...WHICH COULD BE
LOCALLY DENSE...ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S AND SE COASTS AS DEWPOINTS
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE.

THURSDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHES OUT BUT STILL SOME INSTABILITY
LINGERING WITH SOUPY AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION. INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS ON WED...AND STRONGEST WINDS ARE
FARTHER NORTH...BUT STILL DECENT BY NEW ENGLAND STANDARDS. SO WE
COULD SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS AS MID LAYER STARTS TO COOL A BIT
LENDING TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY. SOMEWHAT LOWER PWATS...AROUND 1.5
INCHES...BUT STILL ENOUGH WITH THE HIGH DEWPOINTS FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL FROM ANY CONVECTION. EXPECTING AREAS OF FOG TO REDEVELOP
ALONG S COASTAL AREAS THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING.

FRIDAY...WHILE ANOTHER BOUNDARY TENDS TO WEAKEN OVER THE REGION...
NOT A WHOLE LOT OF FORCING OVER OUR REGION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
HOWEVER...STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS. ONE
MORE ROUND OF FOG LOOKS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST MAINLY FROM
COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY SOUTHWARD.

SATURDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON THEIR SOLUTIONS AS ANOTHER
FRONT TRIES TO SLIP SE OUT OF SOUTHERN QUEBEC. LOOKS LIKE MORE
DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS INLAND
AREAS.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT LEND
TO LOW CONFIDENCE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. IN ANY EVENT...HAVE MORE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY AS A FRONT LOOKS TO
SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS THE REGION...THEN STALLING NEAR OR JUST OFF THE
SOUTH COAST MONDAY...WITH LOWER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. MAY SEE DRIER
AIR WORK INTO NORTHERN MA DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...VFR. CHANCE OF A TSTM WITH MVFR VSBYS/CIGS ACROSS
CT/PIONEER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. IFR STRATUS AND FOG WILL
INCREASE ACROSS SOUTH COAST LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

TONIGHT...VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR IN AREAS OF FOG
PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS. COULD SEE
PASSING SHOWER/TSTORM OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...IFR ALONG THE SOUTH COAST DURING THE MORNING SHOULD
PUSH OFFSHORE. ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...DROPPING TO MVFR WITHIN ANY -SHRA/-TSRA THAT DEVELOPS.
EXPECT SW WINDS TO GUST UP TO 20-25 KT AT TIMES MAINLY ACROSS
RI/SE MA WED AFTERNOON/EVENING.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. COULD SEE CONDITIONS DROP
TO MVFR WITHIN A POP-UP THUNDERSTORM TODAY.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP WED NIGHT WITH MVFR-IFR
VSBYS. MAY SEE PATCHY LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH OCEAN CLOUDS/DENSE FOG
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S AND SE COASTS OVERNIGHT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...EXPECT CHANCE FOR -SHRA/TSRA WITH LOCAL
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS. WILL ALSO SEE AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP EACH LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PERIOD WITH IFR-LIFR VSBYS.

SATURDAY...PATCHY FOG EARLY SAT MORNING WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE. SCT SHRA/TSRA SAT THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH LOCAL
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY...S-SW WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25 KT AT TIMES SAT AFTERNOON/
EVENING...MAINLY ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS MAY LINGERING THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD
END SUN NIGHT. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
HELP BUILD SEAS AND SWELL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS BY TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW. OTHERWISE EXPANDED THE SCA FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS AS
GUSTS WILL REACH 25KTS DURING THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...AREAS
OF FOG ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP TONIGHT...REDUCING VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

S-SW WINDS REMAIN PERSISTENT WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KT...
MAINLY THU INTO THU NIGHT. SEAS LINGERING AT AROUND 5 FT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS THROUGH THU...THEN SHOULD SUBSIDE. VSBYS
REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DENSE OFFSHORE BOTH THU AND FRI
NIGHTS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...BELK/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 261139
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
739 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE TODAY AND INTO TOMORROW.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY...WITH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY HAVING THE HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
740 AM UPDATE...

OVERALL TREND IN THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AS WARM FRONT
CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS NH AND MAINE. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS
ALREADY STARTING TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING AS MIXING GETS UNDERWAY.
ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO BRING NEAR-TERM CONDITIONS BACK IN LINE
WITH OBSERVED TRENDS.

TODAY...

BERMUDA HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. DESCENT AMOUNT OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP CLOUDS AROUND
AS HIGH TEMPS WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S AWAY FROM THE SOUTH
COAST. GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL STREAM THE STABLE MARITIME
AIR ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST OF RI AND MASS...INCLUDING THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS KEEPING TEMPS INTO THE 70S.

OTHERWISE THE FOCUS IS TURNED TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR TODAY. WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PASS NORTH OF
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WHICH COULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS
AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE A LOW CONFIDENCE AS TEMPS ALOFT REMAIN
WARM AND HEIGHTS DROP ONLY SLIGHTLY....LIMITING POTENTIAL AND
COVERAGE. HOWEVER WE DO HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE BUT INSTABILITY
WILL BE MARGINAL AS CLOUDS WILL LIMIT HEATING TODAY...YET WE STILL
COULD SEE CAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG. BELIEVE LOCATIONS WEST TO
THE REGION WILL SEE THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY AS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND MAY SEE JUST A FEW POP-UP SHOWERS. BEST LOCATIONS FOR THE
POTENTIAL WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN CT AND WESTERN MASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...

WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
CONTINUE TO BRING IN HIGHER DEWPOINTS. THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE AND THE
ISLAND AS 60F DEWPOINTS STREAM OVER THE COOLER OCEAN. IN FACT WE
COULD SEE LOCALLY DENSE FOG BUT BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY...HELD
OFF ON DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

ANY LEFT OVER CONVECTION ACROSS NEW YORK WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
MOVE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN A WEAKEN STATE OVERNIGHT. SEVERAL
GUIDANCE MEMBERS SUGGEST THIS WILL OCCUR BUT SPLIT ON WHERE THIS
WILL OCCUR. THE NAM SAYS THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTH COAST WHILE THE GFS/EC SHOWS THAT THE POTENTIAL WILL BE
ACROSS THE MASS PIKE. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY KEPT SLIGHT CHC
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.

TOMORROW...

WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
BE A TAD STRONGER KEEPING TEMPS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST IN THE 70S
WHILE THE INTERIOR WARMS INTO THE MID 80S. SOUTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS
WILL GUST BETWEEN 20-30 KTS.

COULD SEE LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE MORNING HOURS...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD
BREAK DURING THE AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD DOMINATE THE
REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY WORKS IT WAY
EASTWARD. FEEL WEDNESDAY HAS THE BETTER POTENTIAL TO SEE A FEW
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND MODEST
SOUTHERLY FLOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CT AND WESTERN MA. ASIDE FROM THE
ABUNDANT MOISTURE...CAPE VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG
WITH ABOUT 25 KTS OF SHEAR. PWAT VALUES WILL BE ABOUT 1.6 INCHES
COMBINED WITH A DESCENT SOUTHERLY LLJ AND WARM CLOUD PROCESSES PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...ANY THUNDERSTORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
VERY HEAVY RAIN. HAVE ADDED ENHANCED WORDING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL TO
THE FORECAST. COULD SEE SOME STRONG WINDS GUSTS BUT BELIEVE HEAVY
RAIN IS THE MAIN THREAT.

FOG WILL BEGIN TO REDEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTH COAST BY THE EVENING
HOURS LIMITING VISIBILITIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME...AND VERY SUMMER-LIKE. BERMUDA
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE...WITH A DEEP RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST...
SHOULD MEAN PLENTY OF OPPORTUNITIES FOR WARMER WEATHER THIS WEEK.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY GETS CLOSER TO OUR REGION LATE THIS WEEK AND
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH TIMING VARIES SOME AMONGST THE MODELS. WITH A
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE...AND THIS BOUNDARY BECOMING NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE MID-LEVEL FLOW...AM NOT EXPECTING A CLEAN FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WILL FAVOR THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION TIMING FOR NOW...AND
LEAVE THE WINDOW FOR ANY POTENTIAL FRONT RATHER BROAD.

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAY SEE AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP...WHICH COULD BE
LOCALLY DENSE...ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S AND SE COASTS AS DEWPOINTS
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE.

THURSDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHES OUT BUT STILL SOME INSTABILITY
LINGERING WITH SOUPY AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION. INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS ON WED...AND STRONGEST WINDS ARE
FARTHER NORTH...BUT STILL DECENT BY NEW ENGLAND STANDARDS. SO WE
COULD SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS AS MID LAYER STARTS TO COOL A BIT
LENDING TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY. SOMEWHAT LOWER PWATS...AROUND 1.5
INCHES...BUT STILL ENOUGH WITH THE HIGH DEWPOINTS FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL FROM ANY CONVECTION. EXPECTING AREAS OF FOG TO REDEVELOP
ALONG S COASTAL AREAS THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING.

FRIDAY...WHILE ANOTHER BOUNDARY TENDS TO WEAKEN OVER THE REGION...
NOT A WHOLE LOT OF FORCING OVER OUR REGION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
HOWEVER...STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS. ONE
MORE ROUND OF FOG LOOKS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST MAINLY FROM
COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY SOUTHWARD.

SATURDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON THEIR SOLUTIONS AS ANOTHER
FRONT TRIES TO SLIP SE OUT OF SOUTHERN QUEBEC. LOOKS LIKE MORE
DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS INLAND
AREAS.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT LEND
TO LOW CONFIDENCE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. IN ANY EVENT...HAVE MORE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY AS A FRONT LOOKS TO
SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS THE REGION...THEN STALLING NEAR OR JUST OFF THE
SOUTH COAST MONDAY...WITH LOWER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. MAY SEE DRIER
AIR WORK INTO NORTHERN MA DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...VFR. CHANCE OF A TSTM WITH MVFR VSBYS/CIGS ACROSS
CT/PIONEER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. IFR STRATUS AND FOG WILL
INCREASE ACROSS SOUTH COAST LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

TONIGHT...VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR IN AREAS OF FOG
PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS. COULD SEE
PASSING SHOWER/TSTORM OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...IFR ALONG THE SOUTH COAST DURING THE MORNING SHOULD
PUSH OFFSHORE. ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...DROPPING TO MVFR WITHIN ANY -SHRA/-TSRA THAT DEVELOPS.
EXPECT SW WINDS TO GUST UP TO 20-25 KT AT TIMES MAINLY ACROSS
RI/SE MA WED AFTERNOON/EVENING.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. COULD SEE CONDITIONS DROP
TO MVFR WITHIN A POP-UP THUNDERSTORM TODAY.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP WED NIGHT WITH MVFR-IFR
VSBYS. MAY SEE PATCHY LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH OCEAN CLOUDS/DENSE FOG
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S AND SE COASTS OVERNIGHT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...EXPECT CHANCE FOR -SHRA/TSRA WITH LOCAL
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS. WILL ALSO SEE AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP EACH LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PERIOD WITH IFR-LIFR VSBYS.

SATURDAY...PATCHY FOG EARLY SAT MORNING WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE. SCT SHRA/TSRA SAT THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH LOCAL
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY...S-SW WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25 KT AT TIMES SAT AFTERNOON/
EVENING...MAINLY ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS MAY LINGERING THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD
END SUN NIGHT. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
HELP BUILD SEAS AND SWELL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS BY TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW. OTHERWISE EXPANDED THE SCA FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS AS
GUSTS WILL REACH 25KTS DURING THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...AREAS
OF FOG ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP TONIGHT...REDUCING VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

S-SW WINDS REMAIN PERSISTENT WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KT...
MAINLY THU INTO THU NIGHT. SEAS LINGERING AT AROUND 5 FT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS THROUGH THU...THEN SHOULD SUBSIDE. VSBYS
REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DENSE OFFSHORE BOTH THU AND FRI
NIGHTS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...BELK/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 261139
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
739 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE TODAY AND INTO TOMORROW.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY...WITH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY HAVING THE HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
740 AM UPDATE...

OVERALL TREND IN THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AS WARM FRONT
CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS NH AND MAINE. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS
ALREADY STARTING TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING AS MIXING GETS UNDERWAY.
ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO BRING NEAR-TERM CONDITIONS BACK IN LINE
WITH OBSERVED TRENDS.

TODAY...

BERMUDA HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. DESCENT AMOUNT OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP CLOUDS AROUND
AS HIGH TEMPS WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S AWAY FROM THE SOUTH
COAST. GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL STREAM THE STABLE MARITIME
AIR ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST OF RI AND MASS...INCLUDING THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS KEEPING TEMPS INTO THE 70S.

OTHERWISE THE FOCUS IS TURNED TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR TODAY. WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PASS NORTH OF
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WHICH COULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS
AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE A LOW CONFIDENCE AS TEMPS ALOFT REMAIN
WARM AND HEIGHTS DROP ONLY SLIGHTLY....LIMITING POTENTIAL AND
COVERAGE. HOWEVER WE DO HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE BUT INSTABILITY
WILL BE MARGINAL AS CLOUDS WILL LIMIT HEATING TODAY...YET WE STILL
COULD SEE CAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG. BELIEVE LOCATIONS WEST TO
THE REGION WILL SEE THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY AS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND MAY SEE JUST A FEW POP-UP SHOWERS. BEST LOCATIONS FOR THE
POTENTIAL WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN CT AND WESTERN MASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...

WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
CONTINUE TO BRING IN HIGHER DEWPOINTS. THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE AND THE
ISLAND AS 60F DEWPOINTS STREAM OVER THE COOLER OCEAN. IN FACT WE
COULD SEE LOCALLY DENSE FOG BUT BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY...HELD
OFF ON DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

ANY LEFT OVER CONVECTION ACROSS NEW YORK WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
MOVE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN A WEAKEN STATE OVERNIGHT. SEVERAL
GUIDANCE MEMBERS SUGGEST THIS WILL OCCUR BUT SPLIT ON WHERE THIS
WILL OCCUR. THE NAM SAYS THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTH COAST WHILE THE GFS/EC SHOWS THAT THE POTENTIAL WILL BE
ACROSS THE MASS PIKE. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY KEPT SLIGHT CHC
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.

TOMORROW...

WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
BE A TAD STRONGER KEEPING TEMPS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST IN THE 70S
WHILE THE INTERIOR WARMS INTO THE MID 80S. SOUTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS
WILL GUST BETWEEN 20-30 KTS.

COULD SEE LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE MORNING HOURS...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD
BREAK DURING THE AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD DOMINATE THE
REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY WORKS IT WAY
EASTWARD. FEEL WEDNESDAY HAS THE BETTER POTENTIAL TO SEE A FEW
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND MODEST
SOUTHERLY FLOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CT AND WESTERN MA. ASIDE FROM THE
ABUNDANT MOISTURE...CAPE VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG
WITH ABOUT 25 KTS OF SHEAR. PWAT VALUES WILL BE ABOUT 1.6 INCHES
COMBINED WITH A DESCENT SOUTHERLY LLJ AND WARM CLOUD PROCESSES PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...ANY THUNDERSTORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
VERY HEAVY RAIN. HAVE ADDED ENHANCED WORDING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL TO
THE FORECAST. COULD SEE SOME STRONG WINDS GUSTS BUT BELIEVE HEAVY
RAIN IS THE MAIN THREAT.

FOG WILL BEGIN TO REDEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTH COAST BY THE EVENING
HOURS LIMITING VISIBILITIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME...AND VERY SUMMER-LIKE. BERMUDA
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE...WITH A DEEP RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST...
SHOULD MEAN PLENTY OF OPPORTUNITIES FOR WARMER WEATHER THIS WEEK.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY GETS CLOSER TO OUR REGION LATE THIS WEEK AND
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH TIMING VARIES SOME AMONGST THE MODELS. WITH A
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE...AND THIS BOUNDARY BECOMING NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE MID-LEVEL FLOW...AM NOT EXPECTING A CLEAN FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WILL FAVOR THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION TIMING FOR NOW...AND
LEAVE THE WINDOW FOR ANY POTENTIAL FRONT RATHER BROAD.

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAY SEE AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP...WHICH COULD BE
LOCALLY DENSE...ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S AND SE COASTS AS DEWPOINTS
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE.

THURSDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHES OUT BUT STILL SOME INSTABILITY
LINGERING WITH SOUPY AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION. INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS ON WED...AND STRONGEST WINDS ARE
FARTHER NORTH...BUT STILL DECENT BY NEW ENGLAND STANDARDS. SO WE
COULD SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS AS MID LAYER STARTS TO COOL A BIT
LENDING TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY. SOMEWHAT LOWER PWATS...AROUND 1.5
INCHES...BUT STILL ENOUGH WITH THE HIGH DEWPOINTS FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL FROM ANY CONVECTION. EXPECTING AREAS OF FOG TO REDEVELOP
ALONG S COASTAL AREAS THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING.

FRIDAY...WHILE ANOTHER BOUNDARY TENDS TO WEAKEN OVER THE REGION...
NOT A WHOLE LOT OF FORCING OVER OUR REGION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
HOWEVER...STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS. ONE
MORE ROUND OF FOG LOOKS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST MAINLY FROM
COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY SOUTHWARD.

SATURDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON THEIR SOLUTIONS AS ANOTHER
FRONT TRIES TO SLIP SE OUT OF SOUTHERN QUEBEC. LOOKS LIKE MORE
DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS INLAND
AREAS.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT LEND
TO LOW CONFIDENCE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. IN ANY EVENT...HAVE MORE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY AS A FRONT LOOKS TO
SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS THE REGION...THEN STALLING NEAR OR JUST OFF THE
SOUTH COAST MONDAY...WITH LOWER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. MAY SEE DRIER
AIR WORK INTO NORTHERN MA DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...VFR. CHANCE OF A TSTM WITH MVFR VSBYS/CIGS ACROSS
CT/PIONEER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. IFR STRATUS AND FOG WILL
INCREASE ACROSS SOUTH COAST LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

TONIGHT...VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR IN AREAS OF FOG
PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS. COULD SEE
PASSING SHOWER/TSTORM OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...IFR ALONG THE SOUTH COAST DURING THE MORNING SHOULD
PUSH OFFSHORE. ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...DROPPING TO MVFR WITHIN ANY -SHRA/-TSRA THAT DEVELOPS.
EXPECT SW WINDS TO GUST UP TO 20-25 KT AT TIMES MAINLY ACROSS
RI/SE MA WED AFTERNOON/EVENING.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. COULD SEE CONDITIONS DROP
TO MVFR WITHIN A POP-UP THUNDERSTORM TODAY.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP WED NIGHT WITH MVFR-IFR
VSBYS. MAY SEE PATCHY LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH OCEAN CLOUDS/DENSE FOG
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S AND SE COASTS OVERNIGHT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...EXPECT CHANCE FOR -SHRA/TSRA WITH LOCAL
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS. WILL ALSO SEE AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP EACH LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PERIOD WITH IFR-LIFR VSBYS.

SATURDAY...PATCHY FOG EARLY SAT MORNING WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE. SCT SHRA/TSRA SAT THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH LOCAL
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY...S-SW WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25 KT AT TIMES SAT AFTERNOON/
EVENING...MAINLY ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS MAY LINGERING THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD
END SUN NIGHT. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
HELP BUILD SEAS AND SWELL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS BY TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW. OTHERWISE EXPANDED THE SCA FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS AS
GUSTS WILL REACH 25KTS DURING THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...AREAS
OF FOG ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP TONIGHT...REDUCING VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

S-SW WINDS REMAIN PERSISTENT WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KT...
MAINLY THU INTO THU NIGHT. SEAS LINGERING AT AROUND 5 FT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS THROUGH THU...THEN SHOULD SUBSIDE. VSBYS
REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DENSE OFFSHORE BOTH THU AND FRI
NIGHTS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...BELK/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KOKX 261122
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
722 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS ANCHORED WELL OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND REACH THE TRI-STATE REGION THURSDAY. THE
FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH ON SATURDAY...AND SAG SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
THE FRONT WILL THEN BECOME STATIONARY FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FCST WAS ON TRACK WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE.

REGION REMAINS ON N/W PERIPHERY OF DEEP LAYERED RIDGE. QUESTION
IS ARE NW ZONES FAR ENOUGH REMOVED FROM THE RIDGE TO GET ANY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION. THE GFS/NAM ARGUE YES...THE CMC/ECMWF
ARGUE NO.

NOTING FORECAST OF 500-1500 J/KG CAPE OVER NW ZONES ON AVERAGE (NO
CAPE IN ECMWF)...AND EVEN THE ECMWF HAVING A WEAK SHORTWAVE
PASSING TO THE N GOING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE...HAVE CONTINUED
WITH MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER NW ZONES...WITH CHANCE POPS W
ORANGE COUNTY.

FOR HIGHS TODAY USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 975 TO 850 HPA PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

LIKE YESTERDAY...EXPECT A FAIRLY STRONG SEABREEZE TO PENETRATE
WELL INLAND THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH PROBABLY NOT INTO ORANGE
COUNTY...BASED ON HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS. THE SEABREEZE BOUNDARY
COULD ALSO SERVE AS A TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION OVER NW INTERIOR
ZONES IF FORECAST CAPE IS REALIZED.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR METEOROLOGICAL ENHANCEMENT OF RIP
CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
CORE OF DEEP LAYERED RIDGE SLIDES SLIGHTLY FARTHER TO THE S/E
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

FOR TONIGHT...THE CMC/ECMWF KEEP THINGS DRY...WITH NO FORCING.
WHILE THE GFS/NAM BRING A WEAK 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE OVER MAINLY
N/W PORTIONS OF THE AREA. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY HAVE CAPPED POPS AT
SLIGHT CHANCE.

GIVEN PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW AND FORECAST DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW
LEVEL INVERSION...EXPECT FOR LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP
TONIGHT...TIMING IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...BUT WOULD EXPECT S SHORE
LOCATIONS TO GO FIRST...AFTER SUNSET...WITH INTERIOR AREAS
CLOUDING UP AROUND/AFTER MIDNIGHT. ANY LOW CLOUDS WILL BE LAST TO
REACH NW ZONES...IF THEY DO AT ALL...NOTING WEAKER IF NOT NON-
EXISTENT LOW LEVEL INVERSION IN BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AT KMGJ/KSWF. IN
ADDITION TO THE STRATUS...HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AS WELL. IF
THE SHOWERS/TSTMS MATERIALIZE...WOULD NOT EXPECT ANY FOG UNTIL
AFTER THEY PASS. AS IS ALWAYS THE CASE WHEN YOU HAVE MARINE
INDUCED STRATUS...IS IT IS NEVER CERTAIN WHETHER YOU WILL GET FOG
AS WELL...SO RESTRICTED FOG TO PATCHY AND AT THIS TIME WILL NOT
FORECAST ANY LOCALLY DENSE FOG...THOUGH CANNOT RULE IT
OUT...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT...USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES. VALUES SHOULD BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

ON WEDNESDAY CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OVER WESTERN ZONES WILL BE AIDED
BY FORMATION OF A LEE/THERMAL TROUGH...PASSING OF A 30-35 KT 950
HPA JET...AND MODEL AVERAGE FORECAST CAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG.
BASED ON THIS HAVE 40-50 POPS OVER NW ZONES BY AFTERNOON...WITH
CHANCE POPS INTO NYC/SW CT AND SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE. AS IS
ALWAYS THE QUESTION THIS TIME OF YEAR...IS HOW LONG DO STORMS STAY
TOGETHER AS THEY HEAD EAST INTO THE MARINE LAYER. WITH BULK
RICHARDSON NUMBER GENERALLY FORECAST TO BE MUCH GREATER THAN
40...WOULD EXPECT MAINLY ISOLATED PULSE STORMS. HOWEVER...IF
THE HIGH END OF MODEL FORECAST CAPE IS REALIZED...THEN SOME
LOCALIZED SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT...WITH THE
BEST CHANCE OVER THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY W OF THE HUDSON RIVER.

FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 975 TO 900
HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A BLEND
OF MAV/ECS/MET GUIDANCE. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESIDUAL CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO EASE THRU THE REGION WED NIGHT.
THE FRONT WILL STILL BE ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND CENTRAL PA AT THIS
POINT PER THE NAM AND GFS. A DECENT RIBBON OF CAPE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT ON THU. THIS INSTABILITY AXIS SHOULD RESIDE FROM ROUGHLY
NORTHEASTERN NJ THRU THE HUDSON VALLEY AND INTO WRN CT. THE
PERSISTENT SWLY SFC FLOW WILL KEEP THE COASTS FAIRLY STABLE. THE
CITY WILL BE IN THE GRADIENT REGION...WITH THE SEA BREEZE
INFLUENCE ATTEMPTING TO STABILIZE THE AREA AS WELL. THE FRONT WILL
BE A FOCUS FOR TSTMS PER THE 00Z GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...THE FRONT
LOOKS TO DISSIPATE AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE COOLER MARITIME INFLUENCED
AIRMASS. AS A RESULT THE BOUNDARY MAY NEVER EVEN MAKE IT TO ERN
AREAS. SLY FLOW DEVELOPS ON FRI AS THE PRES FALLS N OF THE REGION.
THIS FALLING PRES WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONGER COLD
FRONT...WHICH WILL APPROACH ON SAT BEFORE STALLING S OF THE AREA
LATE SUN INTO TUE. GOOD CHANCES FOR CONVECTION SAT. PRECIPITATION TYPE
AND CHANCES WILL TIED TO THE POSITION OF THE FRONT SUN AND MON.
FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL BE FAR ENOUGH S TO KEEP THE
CWA FIRMLY IN THE COLDER AIRMASS WITH EASTERLY WINDS AND RAIN
CHANCES AS OPPOSED TO SHOWERS AND TSTMS. HOWEVER...THIS IS STILL
FAR OUT AND EVEN A FRONTAL POSITION JUST S OF THE CWA COULD ALLOW
FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS EAST OF THE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

VFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS NORTH AND WEST OF NYC THIS AFTERNOON. WILL INCLUDE A
PROB30 GROUP FOR THIS AT KSWF. ANY THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE THIS MORNING TO 10 TO 15 KT AND BY
AFTERNOON WIND MAY BE 15 TO 20 KT SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT.
WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING.

LOW STRATUS/FOG ALONG WITH SOME SHOWERS OVERNIGHT WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT. BEST CHANCES WILL
BE RIGHT ALONG THE COAST.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WEDNESDAY...LOW CHANCE OF EARLY MORNING MVFR  STRATUS. LOW CHANCE
OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHRA/TSTM...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE NYC METRO TERMINALS. SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT.

.THURSDAY-SATURDAY...THIS IS A CHANCE OF LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING MVFR OR LOWER STRATUS AND/OR FOG. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHRA/TSTM. WIND GUSTS 20-25 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE CONTINUED WITH SCA ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON TO AROUND 25 KT HELPING
TO KEEP SEAS AT AROUND 5 FT. HAVE ALSO ISSUED AN SCA FOR NY HARBOR
AND THE S SHORE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND FROM 16Z TODAY THROUGH 4Z
TONIGHT FOR GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT WITH THE SEABREEZE. ON THE
REMAINDER OF THE WATERS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT..EXPECT GUSTS TO TOP
OUT AT 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF DENSE FOG TO FORM OVER THE
WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHAT FORMS
COULD ALSO JUST END UP BEING AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS. TO SOON TO
TELL...SO WENT WITH PATCHY FOG LOWERING VISIBILITIES TO 1-3NM.

FOR WINDS AND WAVES ON WEDNESDAY...ITS LIKELY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY/TODAY WITH SCA SEAS ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS ALL
DAY...AND GUSTS TO 25 KT ON THE COASTAL OCEAN ZONES/NY HARBOR/S
SHORE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE
IS NOT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH TO EXTEND THE SCA INTO WEDNESDAY AT THIS
TIME.

SCA SEAS REMAIN ON THE OCEAN WED NIGHT THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
THRU THE DAY ON THU. WINDS WILL BE MARGINAL ON THE OCEAN AND S
SHORE BAYS...AND BELOW SCA LEVELS ELSEWHERE. LIGHTER FLOW THU
THRU FRI NIGHT WITH CONDITIONS BELOW SCA LEVELS. WINDS AND SEAS
BUILD ON SAT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY
SUNSET...ESPECIALLY THE OCEAN. AS THE FRONT STALLS S OF THE WATERS
SUN AND MON...NE FLOW WOULD DRIVE SEAS TO 5 FT OR MORE ON THE
OCEAN...WITH WIND SPEEDS IN THE 15-25KT RANGE ALL WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GENERALLY LESS THAN 1/10 OF AN INCH OF BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER ANY STRONGER CONVECTION THAT
FORMS...ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS ANY TRAINING OF STORMS...COULD
LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AND/OR POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT IMPACTS THE AREA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT
     FOR ANZ338-345.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...JMC/MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...JMC/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...JMC/MALOIT



000
FXUS61 KOKX 261122
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
722 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS ANCHORED WELL OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND REACH THE TRI-STATE REGION THURSDAY. THE
FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH ON SATURDAY...AND SAG SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
THE FRONT WILL THEN BECOME STATIONARY FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FCST WAS ON TRACK WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE.

REGION REMAINS ON N/W PERIPHERY OF DEEP LAYERED RIDGE. QUESTION
IS ARE NW ZONES FAR ENOUGH REMOVED FROM THE RIDGE TO GET ANY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION. THE GFS/NAM ARGUE YES...THE CMC/ECMWF
ARGUE NO.

NOTING FORECAST OF 500-1500 J/KG CAPE OVER NW ZONES ON AVERAGE (NO
CAPE IN ECMWF)...AND EVEN THE ECMWF HAVING A WEAK SHORTWAVE
PASSING TO THE N GOING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE...HAVE CONTINUED
WITH MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER NW ZONES...WITH CHANCE POPS W
ORANGE COUNTY.

FOR HIGHS TODAY USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 975 TO 850 HPA PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

LIKE YESTERDAY...EXPECT A FAIRLY STRONG SEABREEZE TO PENETRATE
WELL INLAND THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH PROBABLY NOT INTO ORANGE
COUNTY...BASED ON HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS. THE SEABREEZE BOUNDARY
COULD ALSO SERVE AS A TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION OVER NW INTERIOR
ZONES IF FORECAST CAPE IS REALIZED.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR METEOROLOGICAL ENHANCEMENT OF RIP
CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
CORE OF DEEP LAYERED RIDGE SLIDES SLIGHTLY FARTHER TO THE S/E
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

FOR TONIGHT...THE CMC/ECMWF KEEP THINGS DRY...WITH NO FORCING.
WHILE THE GFS/NAM BRING A WEAK 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE OVER MAINLY
N/W PORTIONS OF THE AREA. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY HAVE CAPPED POPS AT
SLIGHT CHANCE.

GIVEN PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW AND FORECAST DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW
LEVEL INVERSION...EXPECT FOR LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP
TONIGHT...TIMING IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...BUT WOULD EXPECT S SHORE
LOCATIONS TO GO FIRST...AFTER SUNSET...WITH INTERIOR AREAS
CLOUDING UP AROUND/AFTER MIDNIGHT. ANY LOW CLOUDS WILL BE LAST TO
REACH NW ZONES...IF THEY DO AT ALL...NOTING WEAKER IF NOT NON-
EXISTENT LOW LEVEL INVERSION IN BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AT KMGJ/KSWF. IN
ADDITION TO THE STRATUS...HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AS WELL. IF
THE SHOWERS/TSTMS MATERIALIZE...WOULD NOT EXPECT ANY FOG UNTIL
AFTER THEY PASS. AS IS ALWAYS THE CASE WHEN YOU HAVE MARINE
INDUCED STRATUS...IS IT IS NEVER CERTAIN WHETHER YOU WILL GET FOG
AS WELL...SO RESTRICTED FOG TO PATCHY AND AT THIS TIME WILL NOT
FORECAST ANY LOCALLY DENSE FOG...THOUGH CANNOT RULE IT
OUT...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT...USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES. VALUES SHOULD BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

ON WEDNESDAY CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OVER WESTERN ZONES WILL BE AIDED
BY FORMATION OF A LEE/THERMAL TROUGH...PASSING OF A 30-35 KT 950
HPA JET...AND MODEL AVERAGE FORECAST CAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG.
BASED ON THIS HAVE 40-50 POPS OVER NW ZONES BY AFTERNOON...WITH
CHANCE POPS INTO NYC/SW CT AND SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE. AS IS
ALWAYS THE QUESTION THIS TIME OF YEAR...IS HOW LONG DO STORMS STAY
TOGETHER AS THEY HEAD EAST INTO THE MARINE LAYER. WITH BULK
RICHARDSON NUMBER GENERALLY FORECAST TO BE MUCH GREATER THAN
40...WOULD EXPECT MAINLY ISOLATED PULSE STORMS. HOWEVER...IF
THE HIGH END OF MODEL FORECAST CAPE IS REALIZED...THEN SOME
LOCALIZED SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT...WITH THE
BEST CHANCE OVER THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY W OF THE HUDSON RIVER.

FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 975 TO 900
HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A BLEND
OF MAV/ECS/MET GUIDANCE. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESIDUAL CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO EASE THRU THE REGION WED NIGHT.
THE FRONT WILL STILL BE ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND CENTRAL PA AT THIS
POINT PER THE NAM AND GFS. A DECENT RIBBON OF CAPE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT ON THU. THIS INSTABILITY AXIS SHOULD RESIDE FROM ROUGHLY
NORTHEASTERN NJ THRU THE HUDSON VALLEY AND INTO WRN CT. THE
PERSISTENT SWLY SFC FLOW WILL KEEP THE COASTS FAIRLY STABLE. THE
CITY WILL BE IN THE GRADIENT REGION...WITH THE SEA BREEZE
INFLUENCE ATTEMPTING TO STABILIZE THE AREA AS WELL. THE FRONT WILL
BE A FOCUS FOR TSTMS PER THE 00Z GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...THE FRONT
LOOKS TO DISSIPATE AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE COOLER MARITIME INFLUENCED
AIRMASS. AS A RESULT THE BOUNDARY MAY NEVER EVEN MAKE IT TO ERN
AREAS. SLY FLOW DEVELOPS ON FRI AS THE PRES FALLS N OF THE REGION.
THIS FALLING PRES WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONGER COLD
FRONT...WHICH WILL APPROACH ON SAT BEFORE STALLING S OF THE AREA
LATE SUN INTO TUE. GOOD CHANCES FOR CONVECTION SAT. PRECIPITATION TYPE
AND CHANCES WILL TIED TO THE POSITION OF THE FRONT SUN AND MON.
FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL BE FAR ENOUGH S TO KEEP THE
CWA FIRMLY IN THE COLDER AIRMASS WITH EASTERLY WINDS AND RAIN
CHANCES AS OPPOSED TO SHOWERS AND TSTMS. HOWEVER...THIS IS STILL
FAR OUT AND EVEN A FRONTAL POSITION JUST S OF THE CWA COULD ALLOW
FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS EAST OF THE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

VFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS NORTH AND WEST OF NYC THIS AFTERNOON. WILL INCLUDE A
PROB30 GROUP FOR THIS AT KSWF. ANY THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE THIS MORNING TO 10 TO 15 KT AND BY
AFTERNOON WIND MAY BE 15 TO 20 KT SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT.
WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING.

LOW STRATUS/FOG ALONG WITH SOME SHOWERS OVERNIGHT WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT. BEST CHANCES WILL
BE RIGHT ALONG THE COAST.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WEDNESDAY...LOW CHANCE OF EARLY MORNING MVFR  STRATUS. LOW CHANCE
OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHRA/TSTM...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE NYC METRO TERMINALS. SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT.

.THURSDAY-SATURDAY...THIS IS A CHANCE OF LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING MVFR OR LOWER STRATUS AND/OR FOG. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHRA/TSTM. WIND GUSTS 20-25 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE CONTINUED WITH SCA ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON TO AROUND 25 KT HELPING
TO KEEP SEAS AT AROUND 5 FT. HAVE ALSO ISSUED AN SCA FOR NY HARBOR
AND THE S SHORE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND FROM 16Z TODAY THROUGH 4Z
TONIGHT FOR GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT WITH THE SEABREEZE. ON THE
REMAINDER OF THE WATERS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT..EXPECT GUSTS TO TOP
OUT AT 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF DENSE FOG TO FORM OVER THE
WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHAT FORMS
COULD ALSO JUST END UP BEING AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS. TO SOON TO
TELL...SO WENT WITH PATCHY FOG LOWERING VISIBILITIES TO 1-3NM.

FOR WINDS AND WAVES ON WEDNESDAY...ITS LIKELY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY/TODAY WITH SCA SEAS ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS ALL
DAY...AND GUSTS TO 25 KT ON THE COASTAL OCEAN ZONES/NY HARBOR/S
SHORE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE
IS NOT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH TO EXTEND THE SCA INTO WEDNESDAY AT THIS
TIME.

SCA SEAS REMAIN ON THE OCEAN WED NIGHT THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
THRU THE DAY ON THU. WINDS WILL BE MARGINAL ON THE OCEAN AND S
SHORE BAYS...AND BELOW SCA LEVELS ELSEWHERE. LIGHTER FLOW THU
THRU FRI NIGHT WITH CONDITIONS BELOW SCA LEVELS. WINDS AND SEAS
BUILD ON SAT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY
SUNSET...ESPECIALLY THE OCEAN. AS THE FRONT STALLS S OF THE WATERS
SUN AND MON...NE FLOW WOULD DRIVE SEAS TO 5 FT OR MORE ON THE
OCEAN...WITH WIND SPEEDS IN THE 15-25KT RANGE ALL WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GENERALLY LESS THAN 1/10 OF AN INCH OF BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER ANY STRONGER CONVECTION THAT
FORMS...ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS ANY TRAINING OF STORMS...COULD
LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AND/OR POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT IMPACTS THE AREA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT
     FOR ANZ338-345.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...JMC/MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...JMC/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...JMC/MALOIT



000
FXUS61 KOKX 261122
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
722 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS ANCHORED WELL OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND REACH THE TRI-STATE REGION THURSDAY. THE
FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH ON SATURDAY...AND SAG SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
THE FRONT WILL THEN BECOME STATIONARY FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FCST WAS ON TRACK WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE.

REGION REMAINS ON N/W PERIPHERY OF DEEP LAYERED RIDGE. QUESTION
IS ARE NW ZONES FAR ENOUGH REMOVED FROM THE RIDGE TO GET ANY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION. THE GFS/NAM ARGUE YES...THE CMC/ECMWF
ARGUE NO.

NOTING FORECAST OF 500-1500 J/KG CAPE OVER NW ZONES ON AVERAGE (NO
CAPE IN ECMWF)...AND EVEN THE ECMWF HAVING A WEAK SHORTWAVE
PASSING TO THE N GOING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE...HAVE CONTINUED
WITH MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER NW ZONES...WITH CHANCE POPS W
ORANGE COUNTY.

FOR HIGHS TODAY USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 975 TO 850 HPA PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

LIKE YESTERDAY...EXPECT A FAIRLY STRONG SEABREEZE TO PENETRATE
WELL INLAND THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH PROBABLY NOT INTO ORANGE
COUNTY...BASED ON HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS. THE SEABREEZE BOUNDARY
COULD ALSO SERVE AS A TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION OVER NW INTERIOR
ZONES IF FORECAST CAPE IS REALIZED.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR METEOROLOGICAL ENHANCEMENT OF RIP
CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
CORE OF DEEP LAYERED RIDGE SLIDES SLIGHTLY FARTHER TO THE S/E
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

FOR TONIGHT...THE CMC/ECMWF KEEP THINGS DRY...WITH NO FORCING.
WHILE THE GFS/NAM BRING A WEAK 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE OVER MAINLY
N/W PORTIONS OF THE AREA. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY HAVE CAPPED POPS AT
SLIGHT CHANCE.

GIVEN PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW AND FORECAST DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW
LEVEL INVERSION...EXPECT FOR LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP
TONIGHT...TIMING IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...BUT WOULD EXPECT S SHORE
LOCATIONS TO GO FIRST...AFTER SUNSET...WITH INTERIOR AREAS
CLOUDING UP AROUND/AFTER MIDNIGHT. ANY LOW CLOUDS WILL BE LAST TO
REACH NW ZONES...IF THEY DO AT ALL...NOTING WEAKER IF NOT NON-
EXISTENT LOW LEVEL INVERSION IN BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AT KMGJ/KSWF. IN
ADDITION TO THE STRATUS...HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AS WELL. IF
THE SHOWERS/TSTMS MATERIALIZE...WOULD NOT EXPECT ANY FOG UNTIL
AFTER THEY PASS. AS IS ALWAYS THE CASE WHEN YOU HAVE MARINE
INDUCED STRATUS...IS IT IS NEVER CERTAIN WHETHER YOU WILL GET FOG
AS WELL...SO RESTRICTED FOG TO PATCHY AND AT THIS TIME WILL NOT
FORECAST ANY LOCALLY DENSE FOG...THOUGH CANNOT RULE IT
OUT...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT...USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES. VALUES SHOULD BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

ON WEDNESDAY CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OVER WESTERN ZONES WILL BE AIDED
BY FORMATION OF A LEE/THERMAL TROUGH...PASSING OF A 30-35 KT 950
HPA JET...AND MODEL AVERAGE FORECAST CAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG.
BASED ON THIS HAVE 40-50 POPS OVER NW ZONES BY AFTERNOON...WITH
CHANCE POPS INTO NYC/SW CT AND SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE. AS IS
ALWAYS THE QUESTION THIS TIME OF YEAR...IS HOW LONG DO STORMS STAY
TOGETHER AS THEY HEAD EAST INTO THE MARINE LAYER. WITH BULK
RICHARDSON NUMBER GENERALLY FORECAST TO BE MUCH GREATER THAN
40...WOULD EXPECT MAINLY ISOLATED PULSE STORMS. HOWEVER...IF
THE HIGH END OF MODEL FORECAST CAPE IS REALIZED...THEN SOME
LOCALIZED SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT...WITH THE
BEST CHANCE OVER THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY W OF THE HUDSON RIVER.

FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 975 TO 900
HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A BLEND
OF MAV/ECS/MET GUIDANCE. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESIDUAL CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO EASE THRU THE REGION WED NIGHT.
THE FRONT WILL STILL BE ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND CENTRAL PA AT THIS
POINT PER THE NAM AND GFS. A DECENT RIBBON OF CAPE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT ON THU. THIS INSTABILITY AXIS SHOULD RESIDE FROM ROUGHLY
NORTHEASTERN NJ THRU THE HUDSON VALLEY AND INTO WRN CT. THE
PERSISTENT SWLY SFC FLOW WILL KEEP THE COASTS FAIRLY STABLE. THE
CITY WILL BE IN THE GRADIENT REGION...WITH THE SEA BREEZE
INFLUENCE ATTEMPTING TO STABILIZE THE AREA AS WELL. THE FRONT WILL
BE A FOCUS FOR TSTMS PER THE 00Z GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...THE FRONT
LOOKS TO DISSIPATE AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE COOLER MARITIME INFLUENCED
AIRMASS. AS A RESULT THE BOUNDARY MAY NEVER EVEN MAKE IT TO ERN
AREAS. SLY FLOW DEVELOPS ON FRI AS THE PRES FALLS N OF THE REGION.
THIS FALLING PRES WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONGER COLD
FRONT...WHICH WILL APPROACH ON SAT BEFORE STALLING S OF THE AREA
LATE SUN INTO TUE. GOOD CHANCES FOR CONVECTION SAT. PRECIPITATION TYPE
AND CHANCES WILL TIED TO THE POSITION OF THE FRONT SUN AND MON.
FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL BE FAR ENOUGH S TO KEEP THE
CWA FIRMLY IN THE COLDER AIRMASS WITH EASTERLY WINDS AND RAIN
CHANCES AS OPPOSED TO SHOWERS AND TSTMS. HOWEVER...THIS IS STILL
FAR OUT AND EVEN A FRONTAL POSITION JUST S OF THE CWA COULD ALLOW
FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS EAST OF THE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

VFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS NORTH AND WEST OF NYC THIS AFTERNOON. WILL INCLUDE A
PROB30 GROUP FOR THIS AT KSWF. ANY THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE THIS MORNING TO 10 TO 15 KT AND BY
AFTERNOON WIND MAY BE 15 TO 20 KT SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT.
WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING.

LOW STRATUS/FOG ALONG WITH SOME SHOWERS OVERNIGHT WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT. BEST CHANCES WILL
BE RIGHT ALONG THE COAST.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WEDNESDAY...LOW CHANCE OF EARLY MORNING MVFR  STRATUS. LOW CHANCE
OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHRA/TSTM...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE NYC METRO TERMINALS. SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT.

.THURSDAY-SATURDAY...THIS IS A CHANCE OF LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING MVFR OR LOWER STRATUS AND/OR FOG. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHRA/TSTM. WIND GUSTS 20-25 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE CONTINUED WITH SCA ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON TO AROUND 25 KT HELPING
TO KEEP SEAS AT AROUND 5 FT. HAVE ALSO ISSUED AN SCA FOR NY HARBOR
AND THE S SHORE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND FROM 16Z TODAY THROUGH 4Z
TONIGHT FOR GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT WITH THE SEABREEZE. ON THE
REMAINDER OF THE WATERS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT..EXPECT GUSTS TO TOP
OUT AT 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF DENSE FOG TO FORM OVER THE
WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHAT FORMS
COULD ALSO JUST END UP BEING AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS. TO SOON TO
TELL...SO WENT WITH PATCHY FOG LOWERING VISIBILITIES TO 1-3NM.

FOR WINDS AND WAVES ON WEDNESDAY...ITS LIKELY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY/TODAY WITH SCA SEAS ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS ALL
DAY...AND GUSTS TO 25 KT ON THE COASTAL OCEAN ZONES/NY HARBOR/S
SHORE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE
IS NOT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH TO EXTEND THE SCA INTO WEDNESDAY AT THIS
TIME.

SCA SEAS REMAIN ON THE OCEAN WED NIGHT THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
THRU THE DAY ON THU. WINDS WILL BE MARGINAL ON THE OCEAN AND S
SHORE BAYS...AND BELOW SCA LEVELS ELSEWHERE. LIGHTER FLOW THU
THRU FRI NIGHT WITH CONDITIONS BELOW SCA LEVELS. WINDS AND SEAS
BUILD ON SAT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY
SUNSET...ESPECIALLY THE OCEAN. AS THE FRONT STALLS S OF THE WATERS
SUN AND MON...NE FLOW WOULD DRIVE SEAS TO 5 FT OR MORE ON THE
OCEAN...WITH WIND SPEEDS IN THE 15-25KT RANGE ALL WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GENERALLY LESS THAN 1/10 OF AN INCH OF BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER ANY STRONGER CONVECTION THAT
FORMS...ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS ANY TRAINING OF STORMS...COULD
LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AND/OR POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT IMPACTS THE AREA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT
     FOR ANZ338-345.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...JMC/MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...JMC/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...JMC/MALOIT



000
FXUS61 KOKX 261122
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
722 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS ANCHORED WELL OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND REACH THE TRI-STATE REGION THURSDAY. THE
FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH ON SATURDAY...AND SAG SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
THE FRONT WILL THEN BECOME STATIONARY FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FCST WAS ON TRACK WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE.

REGION REMAINS ON N/W PERIPHERY OF DEEP LAYERED RIDGE. QUESTION
IS ARE NW ZONES FAR ENOUGH REMOVED FROM THE RIDGE TO GET ANY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION. THE GFS/NAM ARGUE YES...THE CMC/ECMWF
ARGUE NO.

NOTING FORECAST OF 500-1500 J/KG CAPE OVER NW ZONES ON AVERAGE (NO
CAPE IN ECMWF)...AND EVEN THE ECMWF HAVING A WEAK SHORTWAVE
PASSING TO THE N GOING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE...HAVE CONTINUED
WITH MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER NW ZONES...WITH CHANCE POPS W
ORANGE COUNTY.

FOR HIGHS TODAY USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 975 TO 850 HPA PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

LIKE YESTERDAY...EXPECT A FAIRLY STRONG SEABREEZE TO PENETRATE
WELL INLAND THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH PROBABLY NOT INTO ORANGE
COUNTY...BASED ON HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS. THE SEABREEZE BOUNDARY
COULD ALSO SERVE AS A TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION OVER NW INTERIOR
ZONES IF FORECAST CAPE IS REALIZED.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR METEOROLOGICAL ENHANCEMENT OF RIP
CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
CORE OF DEEP LAYERED RIDGE SLIDES SLIGHTLY FARTHER TO THE S/E
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

FOR TONIGHT...THE CMC/ECMWF KEEP THINGS DRY...WITH NO FORCING.
WHILE THE GFS/NAM BRING A WEAK 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE OVER MAINLY
N/W PORTIONS OF THE AREA. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY HAVE CAPPED POPS AT
SLIGHT CHANCE.

GIVEN PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW AND FORECAST DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW
LEVEL INVERSION...EXPECT FOR LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP
TONIGHT...TIMING IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...BUT WOULD EXPECT S SHORE
LOCATIONS TO GO FIRST...AFTER SUNSET...WITH INTERIOR AREAS
CLOUDING UP AROUND/AFTER MIDNIGHT. ANY LOW CLOUDS WILL BE LAST TO
REACH NW ZONES...IF THEY DO AT ALL...NOTING WEAKER IF NOT NON-
EXISTENT LOW LEVEL INVERSION IN BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AT KMGJ/KSWF. IN
ADDITION TO THE STRATUS...HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AS WELL. IF
THE SHOWERS/TSTMS MATERIALIZE...WOULD NOT EXPECT ANY FOG UNTIL
AFTER THEY PASS. AS IS ALWAYS THE CASE WHEN YOU HAVE MARINE
INDUCED STRATUS...IS IT IS NEVER CERTAIN WHETHER YOU WILL GET FOG
AS WELL...SO RESTRICTED FOG TO PATCHY AND AT THIS TIME WILL NOT
FORECAST ANY LOCALLY DENSE FOG...THOUGH CANNOT RULE IT
OUT...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT...USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES. VALUES SHOULD BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

ON WEDNESDAY CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OVER WESTERN ZONES WILL BE AIDED
BY FORMATION OF A LEE/THERMAL TROUGH...PASSING OF A 30-35 KT 950
HPA JET...AND MODEL AVERAGE FORECAST CAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG.
BASED ON THIS HAVE 40-50 POPS OVER NW ZONES BY AFTERNOON...WITH
CHANCE POPS INTO NYC/SW CT AND SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE. AS IS
ALWAYS THE QUESTION THIS TIME OF YEAR...IS HOW LONG DO STORMS STAY
TOGETHER AS THEY HEAD EAST INTO THE MARINE LAYER. WITH BULK
RICHARDSON NUMBER GENERALLY FORECAST TO BE MUCH GREATER THAN
40...WOULD EXPECT MAINLY ISOLATED PULSE STORMS. HOWEVER...IF
THE HIGH END OF MODEL FORECAST CAPE IS REALIZED...THEN SOME
LOCALIZED SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT...WITH THE
BEST CHANCE OVER THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY W OF THE HUDSON RIVER.

FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 975 TO 900
HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A BLEND
OF MAV/ECS/MET GUIDANCE. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESIDUAL CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO EASE THRU THE REGION WED NIGHT.
THE FRONT WILL STILL BE ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND CENTRAL PA AT THIS
POINT PER THE NAM AND GFS. A DECENT RIBBON OF CAPE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT ON THU. THIS INSTABILITY AXIS SHOULD RESIDE FROM ROUGHLY
NORTHEASTERN NJ THRU THE HUDSON VALLEY AND INTO WRN CT. THE
PERSISTENT SWLY SFC FLOW WILL KEEP THE COASTS FAIRLY STABLE. THE
CITY WILL BE IN THE GRADIENT REGION...WITH THE SEA BREEZE
INFLUENCE ATTEMPTING TO STABILIZE THE AREA AS WELL. THE FRONT WILL
BE A FOCUS FOR TSTMS PER THE 00Z GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...THE FRONT
LOOKS TO DISSIPATE AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE COOLER MARITIME INFLUENCED
AIRMASS. AS A RESULT THE BOUNDARY MAY NEVER EVEN MAKE IT TO ERN
AREAS. SLY FLOW DEVELOPS ON FRI AS THE PRES FALLS N OF THE REGION.
THIS FALLING PRES WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONGER COLD
FRONT...WHICH WILL APPROACH ON SAT BEFORE STALLING S OF THE AREA
LATE SUN INTO TUE. GOOD CHANCES FOR CONVECTION SAT. PRECIPITATION TYPE
AND CHANCES WILL TIED TO THE POSITION OF THE FRONT SUN AND MON.
FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL BE FAR ENOUGH S TO KEEP THE
CWA FIRMLY IN THE COLDER AIRMASS WITH EASTERLY WINDS AND RAIN
CHANCES AS OPPOSED TO SHOWERS AND TSTMS. HOWEVER...THIS IS STILL
FAR OUT AND EVEN A FRONTAL POSITION JUST S OF THE CWA COULD ALLOW
FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS EAST OF THE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

VFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS NORTH AND WEST OF NYC THIS AFTERNOON. WILL INCLUDE A
PROB30 GROUP FOR THIS AT KSWF. ANY THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE THIS MORNING TO 10 TO 15 KT AND BY
AFTERNOON WIND MAY BE 15 TO 20 KT SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT.
WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING.

LOW STRATUS/FOG ALONG WITH SOME SHOWERS OVERNIGHT WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT. BEST CHANCES WILL
BE RIGHT ALONG THE COAST.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WEDNESDAY...LOW CHANCE OF EARLY MORNING MVFR  STRATUS. LOW CHANCE
OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHRA/TSTM...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE NYC METRO TERMINALS. SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT.

.THURSDAY-SATURDAY...THIS IS A CHANCE OF LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING MVFR OR LOWER STRATUS AND/OR FOG. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHRA/TSTM. WIND GUSTS 20-25 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE CONTINUED WITH SCA ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON TO AROUND 25 KT HELPING
TO KEEP SEAS AT AROUND 5 FT. HAVE ALSO ISSUED AN SCA FOR NY HARBOR
AND THE S SHORE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND FROM 16Z TODAY THROUGH 4Z
TONIGHT FOR GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT WITH THE SEABREEZE. ON THE
REMAINDER OF THE WATERS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT..EXPECT GUSTS TO TOP
OUT AT 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF DENSE FOG TO FORM OVER THE
WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHAT FORMS
COULD ALSO JUST END UP BEING AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS. TO SOON TO
TELL...SO WENT WITH PATCHY FOG LOWERING VISIBILITIES TO 1-3NM.

FOR WINDS AND WAVES ON WEDNESDAY...ITS LIKELY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY/TODAY WITH SCA SEAS ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS ALL
DAY...AND GUSTS TO 25 KT ON THE COASTAL OCEAN ZONES/NY HARBOR/S
SHORE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE
IS NOT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH TO EXTEND THE SCA INTO WEDNESDAY AT THIS
TIME.

SCA SEAS REMAIN ON THE OCEAN WED NIGHT THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
THRU THE DAY ON THU. WINDS WILL BE MARGINAL ON THE OCEAN AND S
SHORE BAYS...AND BELOW SCA LEVELS ELSEWHERE. LIGHTER FLOW THU
THRU FRI NIGHT WITH CONDITIONS BELOW SCA LEVELS. WINDS AND SEAS
BUILD ON SAT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY
SUNSET...ESPECIALLY THE OCEAN. AS THE FRONT STALLS S OF THE WATERS
SUN AND MON...NE FLOW WOULD DRIVE SEAS TO 5 FT OR MORE ON THE
OCEAN...WITH WIND SPEEDS IN THE 15-25KT RANGE ALL WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GENERALLY LESS THAN 1/10 OF AN INCH OF BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER ANY STRONGER CONVECTION THAT
FORMS...ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS ANY TRAINING OF STORMS...COULD
LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AND/OR POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT IMPACTS THE AREA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT
     FOR ANZ338-345.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...JMC/MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...JMC/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...JMC/MALOIT



000
FXUS61 KALY 261055
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
655 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING THROUGH MID WEEK. SOME
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY WILL BE MORE HUMID THAN MONDAY. ONLY SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
WEER MADE THIS MORNING.

THE REGION IS IN A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WITH RIDGING ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES TODAY WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEAST HOLDING
STEADY. GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE MESOSCALE HRRR INDICATE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION SHOULD INITIATE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES RISING TO 1.5+ INCHES STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

TODAY WILL BE MORE HUMID THAN MONDAY WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MAINLY
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. IT WILL BE VERY WARM/HOT WITH HIGHS
IN THE 80S...WITH MID/UPPER 80S UP THE HUDSON VALLEY. ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...EASTERN CATSKILLS AND
SOUTHERN GREENS HIGHS SHOULD GET INTO THE UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
BETTER AND MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR CONVECTION EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND HEIGHTS WILL FALL SOME ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER
LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AS THE RIGHT-REAR
QUADRANT OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL BE LOCATED OVER
EASTERN CANADA AND MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST. ACROSS THE REGION
WE WILL HAVE DEW POINTS IN THE 60S AND MODEST SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP
LAYER SHEAR SO STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER CONTINUES TO KEEP OUR AREA UNDER MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER...HOWEVER DOES NOTE THAT IF GREATER
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED THEN AN UPGRADE TO A SLIGHT RISK MAY BE
NEEDED. CONTINUE TO HAVE MENTION OF STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE FOR
WEDNESDAY IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND ADDED GUSTY WINDS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A COUPLE/FEW DEGREES LOWER WEDNESDAY
THAN THURSDAY DUE TO MORE CLOUD COVER AND THE CONVECTION...MID
70S TO MID 80S.

THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS EASTWARD INTO THE
RIDGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY SHEARING OUT WITH TIME. ALONG
WITH TROUGH A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO AND ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL
PERSIST UNTIL THE SHORT WAVE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND BOUNDARY
SHIFTS THROUGH BUT DECREASE IN TIME AS THE FEATURES WEAKEN. IT
WILL NOT BE AS HOT OR HUMID THURSDAY HOWEVER ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE...HIGHS LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5+ INCHES STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST OPENS WITH HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDING
IN OVER ERN NY AND NEW ENGLAND IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THE GFS/ECMWF/CAN GGEM HAVE TRENDED DRIER FOR THIS DAY.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY STALL CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE SRN NEW ENGLAND
AND NJ COAST FOR SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR. A SLIGHT TO LOW
CHC THREAT WAS KEPT IN FOR THE AFTERNOON TIME FRAME FOR THE FCST
AREA WITH LOW CHANCE POPS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. H850 TEMPS
WILL STILL BE IN THE +13C TO +15C RANGE WITH MEAN UPPER RIDING
OVER THE REGION. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE
VALLEYS...AND M70S TO NEAR 80F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. ANY SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL
HEATING. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60-65F RANGE IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND M50S TO 60F OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

SAT-SUN...A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS
CNTRL CANADA...THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION. BROAD
SW FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE EAST
COAST WILL KEEP THE HUMID AIR MASS AROUND FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND.  THE COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING ON SATURDAY WITH AN
UNSTABLE AIR MASS AHEAD OF IT...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE.  SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE
STRONG DEPENDING ON THE EXACT AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AVAILABLE.  THE
LATEST GFS HAS SFC DEWPTS WELL INTO THE 60S WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-
2000 J/KG.  PWATS INCREASE BACK TO 1.33-1.75 INCHES OVER THE FCST
AREA.  SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE LIKELY WITH ANY CONVECTION.  WE
EXPECT THE SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM TO CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN
THE MID AND U80S OVER THE VALLEY AREAS...AND M70S TO L80S IN THE
MTNS.  MUCH COOLER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLING NEAR THE REGION.  OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND SOME
ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER ON THE 2ND HALF OF THE WEEKEND NOW.
HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S TO L70S OVER THE FCST AREA.

SUN NIGHT TO MONDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE DIVERGES ON WHERE
THE FRONT GOES TO START NEXT WEEK.  THE ECMWF PUSHES THE FRONT SOUTH
OF THE FCST AREA WITH A 1032 HPA SFC ANTICYCLONE RIDGING IN FROM SRN
QUEBEC.  COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WOULD PREVAIL.  THE WPC GUIDANCE
IS STARTING TO LEAN TOWARDS THE ECMWF SCENARIO WITH THE SFC RIDGE
WINNING OUT...AND THE FRONT STALLING NEAR DC AND THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION.  THE GFS HAS A SOAKER FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK WITH A
WAVE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT...AND A STRONG LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE
BTWN THE WAVE AND SFC HIGH.  OVERALL...WE KEPT A LOW CHC OF SHOWERS
IN FOR MOST OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...AND THEN WENT LOW CHC SOUTH
OF THE CAPITAWARM TEMPERATURES AND INCREASINGLY HUMID CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST FOR THIS WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
ESPECIALLY MID WEEK.

RH VALUES TONIGHT RECOVER BETWEEN 70 AND 90 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN
EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 40 AND 60 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
VALUES BETWEEN 50 AND 70 PERCENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.L REGION ON MONDAY...AND SLIGHT CHC TO THE
NORTH AND WEST. THIS FCST WOULD NEED FINE TUNING IF THE GFS IS
RIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE RUNNING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TO OPEN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND WILL BE IN A WARM SECTOR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TODAY INTO TOMORROW. SOME
POP UP ISOLD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE THIS MORNING FOR
KGFL/KALB/KPSF/KPOU WITH VFR CONDITIONS.  THE CLOUDS WILL THIN LATE
THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS AROUND WITH SCT-BKN
CUMULUS FOR THE PM.  SOME POP-UP SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP BY THE MID TO LATE PM IN THE HUMID AIR MASS.  VCSH GROUPS
AND CIGS BKN050-060 WERE USED FOR THE TERMINALS.

THE SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING.
THE INCREASED MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND ANY LOCATIONS THAT
MAY GET WET...MAY ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY FOG OR LOW STRATUS TO FORM.
THE BEST CHC FOR AT LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE AT KGFL AND KPSF.

CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PLACE PROB30 OR TEMPO GROUPS IN
FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM SOUTH AT 5-12 KTS THIS MORNING WITH SOME
GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS AT KALB/KPSF.  THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE
S TO SW AT 10-15 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS CLOSE TO 25 KTS AT KALB/KPSF IN
THE AFTERNOON.  EXPECT THE WINDS TO DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KTS
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA. THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA. THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHRA. FRIDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.
CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

MINIMUM RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE LOWER 40S TO LOWER
50S...WITH MINIMUMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS IN THE 50S.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED MODERATE
DROUGHT AT THIS TIME.

WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE BETTER AND MORE
WIDESPREAD CHANCES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INT0 THE EVENING.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5+ INCHES ARE EXPECTED SO STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 261055
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
655 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING THROUGH MID WEEK. SOME
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY WILL BE MORE HUMID THAN MONDAY. ONLY SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
WEER MADE THIS MORNING.

THE REGION IS IN A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WITH RIDGING ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES TODAY WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEAST HOLDING
STEADY. GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE MESOSCALE HRRR INDICATE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION SHOULD INITIATE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES RISING TO 1.5+ INCHES STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

TODAY WILL BE MORE HUMID THAN MONDAY WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MAINLY
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. IT WILL BE VERY WARM/HOT WITH HIGHS
IN THE 80S...WITH MID/UPPER 80S UP THE HUDSON VALLEY. ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...EASTERN CATSKILLS AND
SOUTHERN GREENS HIGHS SHOULD GET INTO THE UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
BETTER AND MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR CONVECTION EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND HEIGHTS WILL FALL SOME ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER
LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AS THE RIGHT-REAR
QUADRANT OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL BE LOCATED OVER
EASTERN CANADA AND MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST. ACROSS THE REGION
WE WILL HAVE DEW POINTS IN THE 60S AND MODEST SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP
LAYER SHEAR SO STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER CONTINUES TO KEEP OUR AREA UNDER MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER...HOWEVER DOES NOTE THAT IF GREATER
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED THEN AN UPGRADE TO A SLIGHT RISK MAY BE
NEEDED. CONTINUE TO HAVE MENTION OF STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE FOR
WEDNESDAY IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND ADDED GUSTY WINDS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A COUPLE/FEW DEGREES LOWER WEDNESDAY
THAN THURSDAY DUE TO MORE CLOUD COVER AND THE CONVECTION...MID
70S TO MID 80S.

THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS EASTWARD INTO THE
RIDGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY SHEARING OUT WITH TIME. ALONG
WITH TROUGH A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO AND ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL
PERSIST UNTIL THE SHORT WAVE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND BOUNDARY
SHIFTS THROUGH BUT DECREASE IN TIME AS THE FEATURES WEAKEN. IT
WILL NOT BE AS HOT OR HUMID THURSDAY HOWEVER ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE...HIGHS LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5+ INCHES STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST OPENS WITH HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDING
IN OVER ERN NY AND NEW ENGLAND IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THE GFS/ECMWF/CAN GGEM HAVE TRENDED DRIER FOR THIS DAY.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY STALL CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE SRN NEW ENGLAND
AND NJ COAST FOR SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR. A SLIGHT TO LOW
CHC THREAT WAS KEPT IN FOR THE AFTERNOON TIME FRAME FOR THE FCST
AREA WITH LOW CHANCE POPS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. H850 TEMPS
WILL STILL BE IN THE +13C TO +15C RANGE WITH MEAN UPPER RIDING
OVER THE REGION. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE
VALLEYS...AND M70S TO NEAR 80F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. ANY SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL
HEATING. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60-65F RANGE IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND M50S TO 60F OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

SAT-SUN...A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS
CNTRL CANADA...THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION. BROAD
SW FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE EAST
COAST WILL KEEP THE HUMID AIR MASS AROUND FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND.  THE COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING ON SATURDAY WITH AN
UNSTABLE AIR MASS AHEAD OF IT...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE.  SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE
STRONG DEPENDING ON THE EXACT AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AVAILABLE.  THE
LATEST GFS HAS SFC DEWPTS WELL INTO THE 60S WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-
2000 J/KG.  PWATS INCREASE BACK TO 1.33-1.75 INCHES OVER THE FCST
AREA.  SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE LIKELY WITH ANY CONVECTION.  WE
EXPECT THE SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM TO CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN
THE MID AND U80S OVER THE VALLEY AREAS...AND M70S TO L80S IN THE
MTNS.  MUCH COOLER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLING NEAR THE REGION.  OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND SOME
ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER ON THE 2ND HALF OF THE WEEKEND NOW.
HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S TO L70S OVER THE FCST AREA.

SUN NIGHT TO MONDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE DIVERGES ON WHERE
THE FRONT GOES TO START NEXT WEEK.  THE ECMWF PUSHES THE FRONT SOUTH
OF THE FCST AREA WITH A 1032 HPA SFC ANTICYCLONE RIDGING IN FROM SRN
QUEBEC.  COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WOULD PREVAIL.  THE WPC GUIDANCE
IS STARTING TO LEAN TOWARDS THE ECMWF SCENARIO WITH THE SFC RIDGE
WINNING OUT...AND THE FRONT STALLING NEAR DC AND THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION.  THE GFS HAS A SOAKER FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK WITH A
WAVE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT...AND A STRONG LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE
BTWN THE WAVE AND SFC HIGH.  OVERALL...WE KEPT A LOW CHC OF SHOWERS
IN FOR MOST OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...AND THEN WENT LOW CHC SOUTH
OF THE CAPITAWARM TEMPERATURES AND INCREASINGLY HUMID CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST FOR THIS WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
ESPECIALLY MID WEEK.

RH VALUES TONIGHT RECOVER BETWEEN 70 AND 90 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN
EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 40 AND 60 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
VALUES BETWEEN 50 AND 70 PERCENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.L REGION ON MONDAY...AND SLIGHT CHC TO THE
NORTH AND WEST. THIS FCST WOULD NEED FINE TUNING IF THE GFS IS
RIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE RUNNING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TO OPEN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND WILL BE IN A WARM SECTOR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TODAY INTO TOMORROW. SOME
POP UP ISOLD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE THIS MORNING FOR
KGFL/KALB/KPSF/KPOU WITH VFR CONDITIONS.  THE CLOUDS WILL THIN LATE
THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS AROUND WITH SCT-BKN
CUMULUS FOR THE PM.  SOME POP-UP SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP BY THE MID TO LATE PM IN THE HUMID AIR MASS.  VCSH GROUPS
AND CIGS BKN050-060 WERE USED FOR THE TERMINALS.

THE SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING.
THE INCREASED MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND ANY LOCATIONS THAT
MAY GET WET...MAY ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY FOG OR LOW STRATUS TO FORM.
THE BEST CHC FOR AT LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE AT KGFL AND KPSF.

CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PLACE PROB30 OR TEMPO GROUPS IN
FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM SOUTH AT 5-12 KTS THIS MORNING WITH SOME
GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS AT KALB/KPSF.  THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE
S TO SW AT 10-15 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS CLOSE TO 25 KTS AT KALB/KPSF IN
THE AFTERNOON.  EXPECT THE WINDS TO DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KTS
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA. THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA..