000
FXUS61 KBOX 222055
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
455 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN NH AND NORTHEAST MASS WILL MOVE
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT. EXPECT WARM...HUMID AND SHOWERY
WEATHER TO CONTINUE THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. SCATTERED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
BE SLOW TO CLEAR...SO SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO SUNDAY...THEN COOLER
AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS SHOULD MOVE IN FOR THE HOLIDAY INTO NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THROUGH 00Z...
PARAMETERS SUCH AS THE C-B SIGNIFICANT SEVERE ARE FOCUSED ON
EASTERN NY AND EXTEND INTO FRANKLIN AND CHESHIRE COUNTIES. THIS
AREA EXPANDS INTO HAMPSHIRE AND HAMPDEN COUNTIES MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING. THE MORE GENERAL PARAMETERS SUCH AS
LIFTED INDEX SHOW THE LOWEST VALUES IN THIS AREA AND ARE UNSTABLE
TO MANCHESTER AND METROWEST BOSTON/NORTHERN RI/NORTHERN CT.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE NEAR 1.5 INCHES...SUFFICIENT FOR
SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS. CONTINUE TO EXPECT SCATTERED TSTMS IN THIS
LATTER AREA WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE BEST SEVERE
POTENTIAL WILL BE IN WESTERN MASS AND SOUTHWEST NH. SVR TSTM WATCH
210 IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

TONIGHT...
UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF US...TURNING WINDS INTO A SOUTHWEST
FLOW. THIS SHOULD MOTIVATE THE SURFACE FRONT TO MOVE NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT TONIGHT. THE EASTERLY MARINE SURFACE FLOW OVER THE
MERRIMACK VALLEY AND METRO BOSTON WOULD THEN BECOME SOUTHERLY AND
BRING IN WARMER MORE HUMID SURFACE AIR.

CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS REMAIN UNSTABLE OVERNIGHT...WHILE SUNSET
SHOULD WORK TOWARD STABILIZING THE AIRMASS A TAD. OVERALL POPS
WILL DIMINISH...BUT WITH A LINGERING CHANCE OF THUNDER. THE
GREATEST RISK WILL BE ACROSS THE CT VALLEY AND CENTRAL HILLS WITH
LESS OF A RISK ALONG THE COAST. TEMPS ARE A BLEND OF MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THURSDAY...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND UP THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY. MEANWHILE THE SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH DIGS OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND TURNS THE UPPER FLOW OVER US PAST SOUTHWEST
AND TOWARD SOUTH. THIS WILL SLOW DOWN THE PROGRESS OF THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT AND KEEP NEW ENGLAND IN THE WARM HUMID UNSETTLED
AIRMASS. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS REMAIN UNSTABLE WITH PREFERENCE FOR
THE CENTRAL HILLS/CT VALLEY/BERKSHIRE EAST SLOPE REGIONS. WILL
NEED TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER. ALSO...PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.75
INCHES WHICH INCREASES THE LIKELIHOOD OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
* UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES SUNDAY...THEN SLOWLY IMPROVING
  MONDAY
* DRY BUT COOL CONDITIONS INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

NOTING A MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE ACROSS THE LOWER 48 AS SEEN ON THE
LAST FEW OP RUNS OF THE GFS...ECMWF AND...TO A LESSER DEGREE...THE
UKMET. MODELS SIGNALING DIGGING UPPER TROUGH/CUTOFF LOW PRES
MOVING INTO THE WESTERN U.S. WHICH BUILDS A LARGE RIDGE OVER THE
PLAINS STATES...THEN IN TURN DIGS ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD. LOOKS LIKE H5 CUTOFF LOW
FORMS BY SATURDAY ALONG THE MID ATLC COAST...SLOWING THE
PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND INTO THE WEEKEND
AT LEAST. SOME TIMING ISSUES WITH THE EXIT OF THE SYSTEM...MAINLY
DUE TO HOW MUCH THE UPPER SYSTEM DIGS AS WELL AS POSSIBLE NEGATIVE
TILTING OF THE TROUGH.

AT THIS POINT...LEANED TOWARD THE WPC GUIDANCE SOLUTION WHICH USED
MAINLY MODEL ENSEMBLES...THEN BLENDED IN THE 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF
WHICH WAS MORE AGGRESSIVE IN KEEPING INCLEMENT CONDITIONS GOING
THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. DUE TO
TIMING OF THE EXIT OF THE UPPER SYSTEM...CONFIDENCE IS LOWER FOR
TRANSITION TIME /FOR NOW...DURING SUNDAY/. CONDITIONS LOOK TO
IMPROVE AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA FOR MON THROUGH
NEXT WED.

DETAILS...

THURSDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT SLOWS DOWN ACROSS NY STATE AS H5 LONG
WAVE TROUGH STARTS TO DIVE TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS. HAVE KEPT
THREAT OF SHOWERS/CHANCE TSTMS GOING. WILL ALSO SEE SOME HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AS AXIS OF PW VALUES OF 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES MOVES ACROSS.
WITH S-SW WIND IN PLACE...EXPECT TEMPS TO ONLY FALL BACK TO THE
MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...AS THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS
AND EVENTUALLY DEVELOPING H5 CUTOFF LOW OVER THE MID ATLC...THIS
WILL SLOW THE PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

WILL SEE SHOWERS AND TSTMS...WITH BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE EVENING HOURS ON FRIDAY AS BEST
INSTABILITY MOVES THROUGH. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME
STRONGER STORMS MAINLY E OF A LINE FROM KMHT-KORH-KIJD WHERE SOME
PEEKS OF SUN MAY BREAK OUT. PW VALUES WILL STILL BE AROUND 1.5
INCHES...SO HEAVY DOWNPOURS STILL POSSIBLE AS WELL AS GUSTY WINDS
AND EVEN SMALL HAIL. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME THUNDER EVEN DURING THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS. COOLER AIR STARTS TO WORK INTO WESTERN AREAS AS
THE LOW SLOWLY MOVES E TOWARD SE MA AND THE CAPE SAT.

DEPENDING UPON WHETHER CLOUDS BREAK ACROSS W MA/SW NH...TEMPS MAY
FALL BACK TO THE UPPER 30S...OTHERWISE LOWS SAT NIGHT WILL FALL TO
THE 40S.

SUNDAY...FOR NOW...THIS APPEARS TO BE THE TRANSITION DAY AS LOW
PRES SLOWLY MOVES NE TO THE MAINE COAST. WILL STILL SEE SCT
SHOWERS ACROSS S NH/N MA EARLY...THEN SHOULD EXIT. HOWEVER...
RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE AS THIS DEPENDS UPON MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER
TROUGH OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND ITS CUTOFF SYSTEM.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...EXPECT HIGH PRES TO BUILD OUT OF
CENTRAL CANADA DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD. TEMPS WILL BE COOL ON
THE HOLIDAY...THEN WILL REBOUND TO SEASONAL LEVELS AS THE HIGH
WORKS OFF THE MID ATLC COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

OVERVIEW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF CEILINGS AND CONVECTION.

THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...
CIGS BELOW 1000 FEET LINGER ALONG THE EAST COAST...LIFTING TO 1500
TO 2500 FEET IN THE COASTAL PLAIN AND VFR IN THE CT VALLEY. EXPECT
CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST WILL BE TOUGH TO BREAK ESPECIALLY WHERE
WINDS LINGER OUT OF THE EAST. FOG LINGERS AT ACK AND IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

MEANWHILE AN AREA OF TSTMS MOVES IN FROM EASTERN NY WITH BRIEF
CIGS 500-1000 FEET AND VSBYS 1-3 MILES WHERE THEY MOVE OVERHEAD.
BRIEF STRONG WINDS AND HAIL POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS IN THE CT
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

TONIGHT...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SHOWERS/TSTMS DIMINISH IN INTENSITY BUT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION
LINGERS OVERNIGHT. THE WARM HUMID AIRMASS AND WET GROUND WILL
GENERATE MORE FOG WITH VSBYS 1-3 MILES IN GENERAL AND BELOW 1 MILE
IN THE COASTAL PLAIN.

THURSDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER. FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY LIFT
DURING THE MORNING. THE TAFS MAY BE TOO FAST IN LIFTING
CIGS/VSBYS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL REGENERATE DURING THE DAY
WITH MORE STRONG STORMS IN THE CT VALLEY AND CENTRAL HILLS.

KBOS TERMINAL...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS AND CEILINGS.

KBDL TERMINAL...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF CONVECTION
THROUGH THE PERIOD. COULD SEE BRIEF IFR IN AN AREA OF TSRA.
POTENTIAL FOR HAIL OR WIND GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS IN ISOLATED TSTMS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. VERY UNSETTLED
PATTERN WITH VARIABILITY BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS IN
SHRA/TSRA/FOG.

SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. MAINLY MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH POCKETS OF
IFR CONDITIONS. ISOLD-SCT TSTMS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
POCKETS OF IFR VSBYS IN FOG ALONG THE COAST EARLY.

SUNDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE
THROUGH MIDDAY ACROSS S NH/N MA...OTHERWISE SHOULD SEE MAINLY VFR.
LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF EXIT OF PRECIP.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH THURSDAY.
A FRONT IS STALLED ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS WITH EAST WINDS TO
THE NORTH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS TO THE SOUTH. THIS FRONT WILL SHIFT
NORTH TONIGHT WITH ALL WATERS TURNING TO SOUTHWEST WINDS.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH
POTENTIAL FOR 25 KNOTS ON THURSDAY. THIS WIND WILL CAUSE BUILDING
SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH 5-8 FOOT SEAS ON THE SOUTHERN EXPOSED
WATERS AND POSSIBLY THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS.

EXPECT LOW VSBYS IN FOG AND LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. COLD FRONT WILL
REMAIN W OF THE WATERS SO EXPECT S WINDS GUSTING TO 25-30 KT. LOW
PROB OF GALE GUSTS. SEAS WELL ABOVE 5 FT...MAINLY OVER THE OUTER
WATERS. WINDS MAY SHIFT TO NW-N OVER THE WESTERN WATERS FRI NIGHT.

SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO TIMING OF FRONT. FRONT WILL BE
SLOW TO CLEAR THE EASTERN WATERS...BUT SHOULD DURING THE DAY. N
WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 KT MAINLY ON THE EASTERN WATERS. SEAS REMAIN
AOA 5 FT OVER THE OPEN WATERS.

SUNDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT W-NW WIND GUSTS UP TO
25 KT AND SEAS AOA 5 FT.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ232>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THURSDAY TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ230-231-236-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT

000
FXUS61 KOKX 222035
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
435 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY INTO THURSDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL THEN SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST THURSDAY...THEN MOVE
INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE TRI-STATE THURSDAY NIGHT. A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THIS SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
FRIDAY...REMAINS JUST EAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY...AND THEN
TRACKS NORTH ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE GREAT LAKES BUILDS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY MID
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED JUST TO THE W AND S OF THE
AREA...WITH A MARINE AIRMASS REMAINING IN PLACE. THIS FRONT SHOULD
NOT MOVE MUCH...IF AT ALL TONIGHT...SO WOULD EXPECT MOST IF NOT
ALL PRECIPITATION TO GO N OF THE AREA. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE
HRRR AND RAP...WHICH HAVE HAD THE BEST HANDLE ON THIS FRONT AND
THE WEATHER TODAY BY FAR...ALONG WITH THE NAM AND SREF.

BASED ON THIS HAVE GONE BASICALLY DRY ACROSS THE S 2/3 OF THE CWA
THIS EVENING...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FAR N TIER...THEN SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING
700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE.

WITH MARINE LAYER INTACT - WOULD EXPECT LOW CLOUD DECK TO RE-
ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE PATCHY FOG
AS WELL - POSSIBLY LOCALLY DENSE NEAR THE ATLANTIC COAST.

FOR LOWS USED A BLEND OF 50 PERCENT MAV GUIDANCE WITH 25 PERCENT
MET GUIDANCE AND 25 PERCENT NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES. FORECASTING
LOWS 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MIXING ASSOCIATED WITH PASSING 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE THURSDAY
MORNING SHOULD ERODE THE MARINE INVERSION - BUT STILL WILL BE
LEFT WITH QUITE A BIT OF MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WITH MOIST SW FLOW
ALOFT.

PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY/NE NJ
THURSDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD SERVE AS TRIGGER FOR SCT-NUMEROUS SHRA
WITH EMBEDDED TSRA. LIKELY POPS MAINLY FROM NYC-INTERIOR SW CT
ZONES ON W AND CHANCE POPS EAST OF THAT LINE. SOME SUGGESTION FROM
NAM/GFS THAT EASTERN AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY THURSDAY...BUT FOR NOW
TOO MUCH LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET TO
FORECAST THAT AT THIS TIME.

WITH 30-35 KT BULK SHEAR...1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE AND BULK
RICHARDSON NUMBERS 15-30 HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS NE NJ/LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND
MAYBE NYC AND SW CT ZONES. MAIN THREAT IS GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL. ALSO NEED TO WATCH FOR LOW LEVEL HELICITY WITH S SFC FLOW
AND SW FLOW AT 850 HPA.

FOR HIGHS THURSDAY USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 975 HPA NEAR
THE COAST AND 950 HPA INLAND...WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A
BLEND OF MAV AND MET GUIDANCE. FORECASTING VALUES AROUND NORMAL
EAST TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WEST.

DEEP SW FLOW ALOFT...BECOMES DIFFLUENT AT 500 HPA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AS A RESULT. REFER TO THE
HYDROLOGY SECTION FOR DETAILS. SEVERE THREAT COULD LINGER INTO THE
EVENING ACROSS WESTERN ZONES AS WELL.

FOR LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH
VALUES FORECAST AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS HAVE TRENDED CONSIDERABLY SLOWER AND DEEPER WITH THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY. THERE
IS VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF ON TAKING A CLOSED
UPPER LOW FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON FRI NE TO OVER NEW ENGLAND
ON SUN. THE NAM AND GGEM ARE TRENDING IN THAT DIRECTION...BUT ARE
MORE PROGRESSIVE BEYOND 00Z SAT. PREFERENCE AT THIS TIME IS TO GO
WITH THE SLOWER GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION BASED ON MODEL TRENDS AND THE RUN
TO RUN CONTINUITY BEING EXHIBITED OVER THE LAST SEVERAL MODEL CYCLES.

AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...THIS RESULTS IN A WET...COOL WEEKEND WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN THE FRI-SAT
TIME FRAME. SINCE THIS IS A BIG ADJUSTMENT FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...HAVE RAMPED UP RAIN CHANCES FRI INTO SAT...BUT THESE MAY
BE UNDERDONE...ESPECIALLY FOR SAT WHERE THERE IS A TREND IN THE
FORECAST TO DRY THINGS OUT SAT INTO SUN. LATEST ECMWF KEEPS
CONDITIONS WET INTO SUN WITH A GUSTY NW FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE. SO
THIS IS THE POINT IN THE FORECAST WHERE CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE TO
DETERIORATE WITH SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS.

ONCE AGAIN...WHILE THE FORECAST HAS AGGRESSIVELY TAKEN A DOWNWARD
NOTE FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...RAIN CHANCES MAY BE ON THE INCREASE
SAT INTO SUN BASED ON LATEST TRENDS IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE.

IN ADDITION...SOME OF THE RAINFALL ON FRI...OR AT LEAST THE FIRST
HALF OF THE DAY MAY BE CONVECTIVE WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
ANY EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. THEREAFTER...THE AIRMASS STABILIZES IN
THE LOW-LEVELS WITH POST-FRONTAL RAIN/SHOWERS...PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW. WIND GUSTS SAT
INTO SUN MAY BE UP TO 35 MPH...BUT THIS IS THE POTENTIAL...WITH THE
FORECASTS SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER AT THIS TIME.

AS FOR TEMPS...DAYTIME HIGHS WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN WILL BE 5
TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. STAYED BELOW GUIDANCE. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONABLE. A GRADUAL WARM-UP TO NEAR SEASONABLE
LEVELS IS THEN FORECAST MON-WED.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO LINGER OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
AS A RESULT...IMPROVEMENT HAS BEEN QUITE SLOW. IFR/MVFR CIGS AND
VSBY GENERALLY THE STANDARD. SOME POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE MORE
IMPROVEMENT PRIMARILY AT NW TERMINALS.

IFR CONDITIONS MAY BE A LITTLE SLOWER TO RETURN AT KEWR...KTEB...AND
KSWF OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...STILL HIGH ENOUGH POTENTIAL THAT IFR
CONDITIONS WERE INCLUDED IN THESE TAFS IN ADDITION TO ALL OTHER
SITES OVERNIGHT. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR COASTAL TERMINALS TO DROP TO
LIFR AS WELL.

LOW-END CHANCES FOR TS TO AFFECT ANY ONE TERMINAL SITE AFTER 18Z
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...DID INCLUDE PROB30 GROUPS AT 30-HOUR SITES TO
INDICATE THE GROWING POTENTIAL LATE IN THE DAY.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: POSSIBILITY FOR VSBY TO DROP QUICKER/LOWER
THAN FORECAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: POTENTIAL FOR CIGS TO GO VFR BRIEFLY EARLY
THIS EVENING.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: CIGS MAY RISE HIGHER THAN INDICATED IN TAF
OVER NEXT 2-3 HOURS.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: CIGS MAY RISE HIGHER THAN INDICATED IN TAF
OVER NEXT 2-3 HOURS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: CIGS MAY RISE HIGHER THAN INDICATED IN TAF
OVER NEXT 2-3 HOURS. POTENTIAL FOR VSBY/CIGS LOWER THAN FORECAST
TONIGHT.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: POSSIBILITY FOR VSBY TO DROP QUICKER/LOWER
THAN FORECAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...NUMEROUS SHRA AND TSTMS POSSIBLE....PRIMARILY
THUR NIGHT AND FRIDAY. IFR POSSIBLE IN FOG AND STRATUS.
.SATURDAY...SHRA LIKELY WITH MVFR OR LOWER. N WINDS 25-30G35KT.
.SUNDAY...MOST LIKELY VFR WITH NW WINDS 20-25KT. POTENTIAL FOR G
UP TO 40KT.
.MONDAY...VFR. NW WINDS 15-20G25KT.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEB-CAMS...AND RAP SOUNDINGS WARRANT
EXTENDING DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE WATERS S/W OF LONG ISLAND
THROUGH TONIGHT. MIGHT ULTIMATELY END UP NEED TO EXTEND INTO
THURSDAY MORNING - BUT TO MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING OF MIXING
AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE LATE TONIGHT TO DO SO AT THIS TIME.

SEAS ARE RUNNING 1-2 FT BELOW WAVEWATCH FORECAST - SO FOR NOW HAVE
TAKEN 1 FT OFF OF WAVEWATCH THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. STILL EXPECT
SEAS TO COME UP TO SCA LEVELS TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS ALSO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND REMAIN UP
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT INCREASES POTENTIAL FOR SCA LEVEL GUSTS OVER THE COASTAL
OCEAN WATERS - SO HAVE KEPT HEADLINE AS SCA VICE CONVERTING TO AN
SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS.

MARINE INVERSION APPEARS WILL LIMIT MIXING - SO WHILE COULD SEE
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS FROM
LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT - DO NOT HAVE CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE
SCA AT THIS TIME FOR THE NON-OCEAN ZONES.

THERE IS A GOOD POTENTIAL FOR SCA CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS OVER THE WATERS ON FRI AND
LIFTS SLOWLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST. SCA CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING
INCREASINGLY LIKELY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GALE CONDITIONS SAT
INTO SUN. WINDS AND SEAS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATE SUN INTO MON WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AROUND 3/4 TO 1 INCH BASIN AVERAGE QPF
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

DO NOT EXPECT ANY WIDESPREAD FLOOD THREAT THURSDAY FROM ANY
SHRA/TSRA BUT COULD SEE SOME MINOR FLOODING UNDER ANY STRONGER
CONVECTION - ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS ANY TRAINING.

THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IN THIS TIME FRAME WILL BE LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT - WITH LOCALIZED RAINFALL RATES OF 1-1.5 INCHES/HR POSSIBLE
NOTING PRECIPITABLE WATERS OF 1.5-1/75 INCHES IN THIS TIME
FRAME. IF THESE RATES ARE REALIZED...ESPECIALLY IF THE STORMS
PRODUCING THEM PASS OVER AREAS RECEIVING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
THURSDAY...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

THE THREAT FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST
HALF OF FRI WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTION. THEREAFTER...A STRATIFORM RAIN
AND/OR SHOWERS DEVELOPS ON THE BACKSIDE OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE.
AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE FRI INTO SAT.
THIS MAY EXACERBATE ANY ONGOING FLOODING. RAIN MAY LINGER EVEN INTO
SUN BASED ON LATEST MODEL TRENDS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ338-345-350-
     353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/DW
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...PICCA/MET
MARINE...MALOIT/DW
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/DW

000
FXUS61 KALY 222033
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
433 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION INTO FRIDAY. PERIODS
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRECEDE THE FRONT. THE RAIN WILL
BE HEAVY AT TIMES. COOLER AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 210 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM...

MAIN BAND OF CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOODING
RAINFALL CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EAST. SOME REPORTS OF WIND DAMAGE
IN SCHENECTADY AND SCHOHARIE COUNTIES. MEANWHILE...HEAVY
RAINFALL...RADAR ESTIMATE SHOWS 2-3 INCHES HAS LED TO URBAN
FLOODING IN SCHENECTADY COUNTY.

WITH MCS-LIKE SYSTEM CONTINUING TO TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
LATE AFTERNOON SEVERE THREAT/FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL CONTINUE EAST.

ATTENTION WILL TURN TO ACTIVITY FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. CURRENTLY TO OUR WEST LAKE BREEZES ARE FORCING ISOLD
TSRA. HRRR SHOWS LAKE BREEZE TO BLOSSOM WITH CONVECTION INTO LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS LARGER SCALE ASCENT TRANSLATES
EASTWARD FROM LOWER LAKES. INSTABILITY HAS RECOVERED ACROSS
WESTERN CWA WITH MESOANALYSIS SHOWS CAPES IN 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE.
BULK SHEAR WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH VALUES
INTO THE 30-40 KNOT RANGE. WILL CARRY ENHANCED WORDING TO COINCIDE
WITH WATCH...THEN SCT SHRA/TSRA THROUGH REMAINDER OF OVERNIGHT AS
WAIT TO SEE HOW CONVECTION EVOLVES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES THE REGION ON THURSDAY...NOT CLEARING
CWA UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING.

SLOWLY MOVING FRONT WILL PROVIDE ENVIRONMENT FOR BOUTS OF HEAVY
RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. PWATS REMAIN IN THE 1.5 INCH RANGE
THROUGH THURSDAY...ONLY SLOWLY DROPPING OFF INTO FRIDAY.
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL JET TOMORROW BRINGS RIGHT REAR QUAD INTO
FORECAST AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON. SEE HYDRO SECTION FOR DISCUSSION
ON FLOOD RISK.

SEVERE POTENTIAL TOMORROW IS NOT CLEAR CUT NOW. MODEL CAPE LOOKS
TO BE IN THE 1000 J/KG RANGE WITH BULK SHEAR RESPECTABLE IN THE
30-40 KNOT RANGE. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE RELATIVELY WEAK AT
5.5C/KM. SPC HAS REGION IN SEE TEXT. FROM TODAY/S VANTAGE POINT
THAT LOOKS APPROPRIATE.

WITH COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON FRIDAY...SOME DIMINISHING IN
PRECIP EXPECTED FOR PART OF FRIDAY. HOWEVER GFS AND ECMWF COMING
INTO AGREEMENT ON CUT OFF MIGRATING SLOWLY FROM DELMARVA INTO NEW
ENGLAND INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF
RAIN/SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY. WITH CWA ON COOL SIDE OF
SURFACE LOW TRACK...INSTABILITY LOOKS NEAR NIL. SO NO MENTION OF
TSRA FOR FRIDAY.

MINS ON SATURDAY MORNING IN ADIRONDACKS ARE FORECAST IN MID 30S.
THIS WOULD MEAN THREAT OF FROST GIVEN BEGINNING OF THE GROWING
SEASON THERE. WILL DEPEND ON CLOUDS AND PRECIP.



&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED TO A WET START TO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
ALONG WITH CHILLY TEMPERATURES DUE TO MORE CLOUD COVER.

THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ON THE COLD FRONT JUST OFF COAST NEAR CAPE
COD AS SHORT WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE LONGWAVE. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVES MAINTAINING THIS UPPER LOW WITH IT MOVING
GRADUALLY NORTHWARD UP THE COAST. THE LOW ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL
SLOW THE FRONT`S EASTWARD PROGRESS AND THROW RAIN SHOWERS AND CLOUDS
BACK ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND EASTERN NEW YORK STATE SATURDAY. THE
REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
UPPER RIDGING NOT EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO BUILD IN UNTIL TUESDAY. AT
THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BEGIN TO BUILD IN MONDAY AND
ESPECIALLY TUESDAY. IT APPEARS THE HIGH SHOULD HOLD ON FOR WEDNESDAY.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...CHILLY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RUN 10 TO
15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY. BRISK AND GUSTY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ONLY ADD TO THE CHILL. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO MODERATE TOWARD SEASONABLE LEVELS MONDAY WITH THE HELP
OF SUNSHINE BUT STILL BE BELOW NORMAL BY AROUND 5 DEGREES.

THE GROWING SEASON IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...
GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...THE MOHAWK
VALLEY...EASTERN CATSKILLS...TACONICS...BERKSHIRES...BENNINGTON AND
EASTERN WINDHAM COUNTIES VT AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY. IT WILL START ON
MAY 25TH FOR THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN WINDHAM COUNTY.

NIGHTTIME LOWS OVER THE WEEKEND ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40S WITH
30S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH THE EXPANSION OF THE GROWING
SEASON BY THIS TIME FROST ADVISORIES MIGHT BE NEEDED. CONDITIONS
WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR FROST SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING AND
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR PREVAILING WITH PERIODS OF MVFR FOR THE BALANCE OF THE
AFTERNOON.  SCATTERED -SHRA AND TSRA WILL DIRECTLY AFFECT OR BE IN
THE VICINITY OF THE AIRPORTS FROM THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD
THROUGH AT LEAST 22Z.  CLOUDS WILL BE HARD TO CLEAR
OUT...PARTICULARLY THE HIGH-LEVEL CI/CS...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT
INSTABILITY AND THE PROLIFERATION OF TS.  HIGH DEWPOINTS OVERNIGHT
WILL RESULT IN SOME HAZY FOG...MAINLY MVFR...WITH A PERIOD OF IFR
FOG POSS AT KPSF WHERE WINDS THRU THE COLUMN WILL BE LIGHTER.

WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE ENVIRONMENT EXPECTED INTO EARLY
THURSDAY...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT THE AIRPORTS
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH MORE TS ACTIVITY IS
LIKELY...THOUGH PERHAPS NOT UNTIL AFTER THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
EXPECTING A PERIOD OF MARGINAL SHEAR DURING THE EARLY NIGHT EXCEPT
AT KPSF...35 KNOTS SHOULD BE ABOUT IT.  SURFACE WINDS WILL HOLD UP
OVERNIGHT AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS...PICKING UP TO SPEEDS ON THURSDAY
AVERAGING SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN TODAY.

OUTLOOK...
THU PM AND NGT...MVFR WITH IFR POSSIBLE. -SHRA/-TSRA LIKELY.
FRI-FRI NGT...MAINLY VFR. CHC -SHRA/-TSRA...MAINLY IN THE AM.
SAT-SUN...VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS INTO SATURDAY. PERIODS OF RAIN...MODERATE
TO HEAVY AT TIMES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...AND LOWER TO 45 TO 60 PERCENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ECMWF AND GFS VERY AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING HEAVY RAINFALL INTO CWA
INTO THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. OPERATIONAL ECMWF AND GFS PRODUCE
5-7.5 INCHES OF RAIN IN CWA INTO SUNDAY. GEFS SHOW AVERAGE OF 2.25
INCHES THROUGH WEEKEND WITH 4 MEMBERS PUSHING IN EXCESS OF 3
INCHES. WHILE NOT QUITE READY TO ACCEPT TOTALS OF EURO AND
GFS...ENOUGH GUIDANCE AVAILABLE TO AT LEAST WARRANT POTENTIAL OF
HEAVY RAIN THREAT IN HWO. FIRST CHALLENGE FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL COME
TOMORROW WITH SLOWLY MOVING FRONT. EASTERN CWA AND CENTRAL CWA
HAVE SEEN HEAVIEST RAIN OVER THE LAST TWO DAYS AND WOULD APPEAR TO
BE THE REGION WHERE FLASH FLOOD THREAT IS AT HIGHEST.

WILL MONITOR CLOSELY FOR AT LEAST POTENTIAL OF FLASH FLOOD OR
FLOOD WATCH THURSDAY INTO WEEKEND.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OKEEFE
NEAR TERM...OKEEFE
SHORT TERM...OKEEFE
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...ELH/WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...OKEEFE
HYDROLOGY...OKEEFE

000
FXUS61 KOKX 222007
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
407 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY INTO THURSDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL THEN SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST THURSDAY...THEN MOVE
INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE TRI-STATE THURSDAY NIGHT. A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THIS SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
FRIDAY...REMAINS JUST EAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY...AND THEN
TRACKS NORTH ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE GREAT LAKES BUILDS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY MID
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED JUST TO THE W AND S OF THE
AREA...WITH A MARINE AIRMASS REMAINING IN PLACE. THIS FRONT SHOULD
NOT MOVE MUCH...IF AT ALL TONIGHT...SO WOULD EXPECT MOST IF NOT
ALL PRECIPITATION TO GO N OF THE AREA. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE
HRRR AND RAP...WHICH HAVE HAD THE BEST HANDLE ON THIS FRONT AND
THE WEATHER TODAY BY FAR...ALONG WITH THE NAM AND SREF.

BASED ON THIS HAVE GONE BASICALLY DRY ACROSS THE S 2/3 OF THE CWA
THIS EVENING...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FAR N TIER...THEN SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING
700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE.

WITH MARINE LAYER INTACT - WOULD EXPECT LOW CLOUD DECK TO RE-
ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE PATCHY FOG
AS WELL - POSSIBLY LOCALLY DENSE NEAR THE ATLANTIC COAST.

FOR LOWS USED A BLEND OF 50 PERCENT MAV GUIDANCE WITH 25 PERCENT
MET GUIDANCE AND 25 PERCENT NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES. FORECASTING
LOWS 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MIXING ASSOCIATED WITH PASSING 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE THURSDAY
MORNING SHOULD ERODE THE MARINE INVERSION - BUT STILL WILL BE
LEFT WITH QUITE A BIT OF MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WITH MOIST SW FLOW
ALOFT.

PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY/NE NJ
THURSDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD SERVE AS TRIGGER FOR SCT-NUMEROUS SHRA
WITH EMBEDDED TSRA. LIKELY POPS MAINLY FROM NYC-INTERIOR SW CT
ZONES ON W AND CHANCE POPS EAST OF THAT LINE. SOME SUGGESTION FROM
NAM/GFS THAT EASTERN AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY THURSDAY...BUT FOR NOW
TOO MUCH LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET TO
FORECAST THAT AT THIS TIME.

WITH 30-35 KT BULK SHEAR...1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE AND BULK
RICHARDSON NUMBERS 15-30 HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS NE NJ/LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND
MAYBE NYC AND SW CT ZONES. MAIN THREAT IS GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL. ALSO NEED TO WATCH FOR LOW LEVEL HELICITY WITH S SFC FLOW
AND SW FLOW AT 850 HPA.

FOR HIGHS THURSDAY USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 975 HPA NEAR
THE COAST AND 950 HPA INLAND...WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A
BLEND OF MAV AND MET GUIDANCE. FORECASTING VALUES AROUND NORMAL
EAST TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WEST.

DEEP SW FLOW ALOFT...BECOMES DIFFLUENT AT 500 HPA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AS A RESULT. REFER TO THE
HYDROLOGY SECTION FOR DETAILS. SEVERE THREAT COULD LINGER INTO THE
EVENING ACROSS WESTERN ZONES AS WELL.

FOR LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH
VALUES FORECAST AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS HAVE TRENDED CONSIDERABLY SLOWER AND DEEPER WITH THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY. THERE
IS VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF ON TAKING A CLOSED
UPPER LOW FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON FRI NE TO OVER NEW ENGLAND
ON SUN. THE NAM AND GGEM ARE TRENDING IN THAT DIRECTION...BUT ARE
MORE PROGRESSIVE BEYOND 00Z SAT. PREFERENCE AT THIS TIME IS TO GO
WITH THE SLOWER GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION BASED ON MODEL TRENDS AND THE RUN
TO RUN CONTINUITY BEING EXHIBITED OVER THE LAST SEVERAL MODEL CYCLES.

AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...THIS RESULTS IN A WET...COOL WEEKEND WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN THE FRI-SAT
TIME FRAME. SINCE THIS IS A BIG ADJUSTMENT FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...HAVE RAMPED UP RAIN CHANCES FRI INTO SAT...BUT THESE MAY
BE UNDERDONE...ESPECIALLY FOR SAT WHERE THERE IS A TREND IN THE
FORECAST TO DRY THINGS OUT SAT INTO SUN. LATEST ECMWF KEEPS
CONDITIONS WET INTO SUN WITH A GUSTY NW FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE. SO
THIS IS THE POINT IN THE FORECAST WHERE CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE TO
DETERIORATE WITH SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS.

ONCE AGAIN...WHILE THE FORECAST HAS AGGRESSIVELY TAKEN A DOWNWARD
NOTE FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...RAIN CHANCES MAY BE ON THE INCREASE
SAT INTO SUN BASED ON LATEST TRENDS IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE.

IN ADDITION...SOME OF THE RAINFALL ON FRI...OR AT LEAST THE FIRST
HALF OF THE DAY MAY BE CONVECTIVE WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
ANY EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. THEREAFTER...THE AIRMASS STABILIZES IN
THE LOW-LEVELS WITH POST-FRONTAL RAIN/SHOWERS...PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW. WIND GUSTS SAT
INTO SUN MAY BE UP TO 35 MPH...BUT THIS IS THE POTENTIAL...WITH THE
FORECASTS SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER AT THIS TIME.

AS FOR TEMPS...DAYTIME HIGHS WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN WILL BE 5
TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. STAYED BELOW GUIDANCE. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONABLE. A GRADUAL WARM-UP TO NEAR SEASONABLE
LEVELS IS THEN FORECAST MON-WED.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO LINGER OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
AS A RESULT...IMPROVEMENT HAS BEEN QUITE SLOW. IFR/MVFR CIGS AND
VSBY GENERALLY THE STANDARD. SOME POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE MORE
IMPROVEMENT PRIMARILY AT NW TERMINALS.

RECENT OBS SHOW WINDS FINALLY TURNING S AT KJFK/KEWR...WHICH MAY
BE A SIGN OF BRIEFLY INCREASING VSBY/CIGS. HOWEVER...BASED ON
CURRENT OBS AND DEVELOPING S WIND...GROWING POTENTIAL FOR IFR
VSBY TO PUSH BACK INTO COASTAL TERMINALS OVER NEXT FEW HOURS.

POTENTIAL FOR CONDITIONS TO DROP SOLIDLY INTO IFR AGAIN
TONIGHT...HOWEVER MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS OVER TIMING AND EXTENT.
POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS FOR LIFR/VLIFR ACROSS COASTAL TERMINALS.

DID NOT SHOW TS IN TAFS ON THURSDAY JUST YET...AS UPPER-LEVEL FLOW
INDICATES STORMS MAY BE SLOW TO APPROACH WESTERN TERMINALS AND
COULD HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY. HOWEVER...LOW END
POTENTIAL EXISTS AT W TERMS GENERALLY 23/18Z THROUGH 24/00Z.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: POSSIBILITY FOR VSBY TO DROP QUICKER/LOWER
THAN FORECAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: POTENTIAL FOR CIGS TO GO VFR BRIEFLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. WIND DIRECTION MAY STAY E/NE A
COUPLE HOURS LONGER THAN INDICATED IN TAF.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: CIGS MAY RISE HIGHER THAN INDICATED IN TAF
OVER NEXT 2-3 HOURS. POTENTIAL FOR VSBY/CIGS LOWER THAN FORECAST
TONIGHT.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: CIGS MAY RISE HIGHER THAN INDICATED IN TAF
OVER NEXT 2-3 HOURS. POTENTIAL FOR VSBY/CIGS LOWER THAN FORECAST
TONIGHT.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: CIGS MAY RISE HIGHER THAN INDICATED IN TAF
OVER NEXT 2-3 HOURS. POTENTIAL FOR VSBY/CIGS LOWER THAN FORECAST
TONIGHT.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: POSSIBILITY FOR VSBY TO DROP QUICKER/LOWER
THAN FORECAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...NUMEROUS SHRA AND TSTMS POSSIBLE....PRIMARILY
THUR NIGHT AND FRIDAY. IFR POSSIBLE IN FOG AND STRATUS.
.SATURDAY...SHRA LIKELY WITH MVFR OR LOWER. N WINDS 25-30G35KT.
.SUNDAY...MOST LIKELY VFR WITH NW WINDS 20-25KT. POTENTIAL FOR G
UP TO 40KT.
.MONDAY...VFR. NW WINDS 15-20G25KT.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEB-CAMS...AND RAP SOUNDINGS WARRANT
EXTENDING DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE WATERS S/W OF LONG ISLAND
THROUGH TONIGHT. MIGHT ULTIMATELY END UP NEED TO EXTEND INTO
THURSDAY MORNING - BUT TO MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING OF MIXING
AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE LATE TONIGHT TO DO SO AT THIS TIME.

SEAS ARE RUNNING 1-2 FT BELOW WAVEWATCH FORECAST - SO FOR NOW HAVE
TAKEN 1 FT OFF OF WAVEWATCH THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. STILL EXPECT
SEAS TO COME UP TO SCA LEVELS TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS ALSO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND REMAIN UP
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT INCREASES POTENTIAL FOR SCA LEVEL GUSTS OVER THE COASTAL
OCEAN WATERS - SO HAVE KEPT HEADLINE AS SCA VICE CONVERTING TO AN
SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS.

MARINE INVERSION APPEARS WILL LIMIT MIXING - SO WHILE COULD SEE
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS FROM
LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT - DO NOT HAVE CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE
SCA AT THIS TIME FOR THE NON-OCEAN ZONES.

THERE IS A GOOD POTENTIAL FOR SCA CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS OVER THE WATERS ON FRI AND
LIFTS SLOWLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST. SCA CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING
INCREASINGLY LIKELY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GALE CONDITIONS SAT
INTO SUN. WINDS AND SEAS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATE SUN INTO MON WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AROUND 3/4 TO 1 INCH BASIN AVERAGE QPF
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

DO NOT EXPECT ANY WIDESPREAD FLOOD THREAT THURSDAY FROM ANY
SHRA/TSRA BUT COULD SEE SOME MINOR FLOODING UNDER ANY STRONGER
CONVECTION - ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS ANY TRAINING.

THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IN THIS TIME FRAME WILL BE LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT - WITH LOCALIZED RAINFALL RATES OF 1-1.5 INCHES/HR POSSIBLE
NOTING PRECIPITABLE WATERS OF 1.5-1/75 INCHES IN THIS TIME
FRAME. IF THESE RATES ARE REALIZED...ESPECIALLY IF THE STORMS
PRODUCING THEM PASS OVER AREAS RECEIVING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
THURSDAY...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

THE THREAT FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST
HALF OF FRI WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTION. THEREAFTER...A STRATIFORM RAIN
AND/OR SHOWERS DEVELOPS ON THE BACKSIDE OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE.
AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE FRI INTO SAT.
THIS MAY EXACERBATE ANY ONGOING FLOODING. RAIN MAY LINGER EVEN INTO
SUN BASED ON LATEST MODEL TRENDS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.


&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ338-345-350-
     353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/DW
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...PICCA
MARINE...MALOIT/DW
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/DW

000
FXUS61 KBOX 221935
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
335 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN NH AND NORTHEAST MASS WILL MOVE
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT. WARM HUMID SHOWERY WEATHER
CONTINUES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THIS
HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THROUGH 00Z...
PARAMETERS SUCH AS THE C-B SIGNIFICANT SEVERE ARE FOCUSSED ON
EASTERN NY AND EXTEND INTO FRANKLIN AND CHESHIRE COUNTIES. THIS
AREA EXPANDS INTO HAMPSHIRE AND HAMPDEN COUNTIES MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING. THE MORE GENERAL PARAMETERS SUCH AS
LIFTED INDEX SHOW THE LOWEST VALUES IN THIS AREA AND ARE UNSTABLE
TO MANCHESTER AND METROWEST BOSTON/NORTHERN RI/NORTHERN CT.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE NEAR 1.5 INCHES...SUFFICIENT FOR
SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS. CONTINUE TO EXPECT SCATTERED TSTMS IN THIS
LATTER AREA WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE BEST SEVERE
POTENTIAL WILL BE IN WESTERN MASS AND SOUTHWEST NH. SVR TSTM
WATCH 210 IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

TONIGHT...
UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF US...TURNING WINDS INTO A SOUTHWEST
FLOW. THIS SHOULD MOTIVATE THE SURFACE FRONT TO MOVE NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT TONIGHT. THE EASTERLY MARINE SURFACE FLOW OVER THE
MERRIMACK VALLEY AND METRO BOSTON WOULD THEN BECOME SOUTHERLY AND
BRING IN WARMER MORE HUMID SURFACE AIR.

CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS REMAIN UNSTABLE OVERNIGHT...WHILE SUNSET
SHOULD WORK TOWARD STABILIZING THE AIRMASS A TAD. OVERALL POPS
WILL DIMINISH...BUT WITH A LINGERING CHANCE OF THUNDER. THE
GREATEST RISK WILL BE ACROSS THE CT VALLEY AND CENTRAL HILLS WITH
LESS OF A RISK ALONG THE COAST. TEMPS ARE A BLEND OF MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THURSDAY...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND UP THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY. MEANWHILE THE SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH DIGS OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND TURNS THE UPPER FLOW OVER US PAST SOUTHWEST
AND TOWARD SOUTH. THIS WILL SLOW DOWN THE PROGRESS OF THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT AND KEEP NEW ENGLAND IN THE WARM HUMID UNSETTLED
AIRMASS. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS REMAIN UNSTABLE WITH PREFERENCE FOR
THE CENTRAL HILLS/CT VALLEY/BERKSHIRE EAST SLOPE REGIONS. WILL
NEED TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER. ALSO...PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.75
INCHES WHICH INCREASES THE LIKELIHOOD OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
* COOLER AND LESS HUMID FOR THE WEEKEND

CONFIDENCE LEVEL/MODEL GUIDANCE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL
FORECAST. 00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN THE ELONGATED TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THERE IS STILL SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES ON WHEN THE SYSTEM WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST. REGARDLESS APPEARS THAT ELONGATED TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO
NEW ENGLAND EVENTUALLY BECOMING A CUTOFF LOW BY THE WEEKEND. THIS
LOW WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO THE MARITIMES BY THE BEGINNING OF
THE WORK WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT
PRECIP WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY AND COOLER TEMPS WILL DOMINATE THE
REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. LOW CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST AFTER TUES.

DETAILS...

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION EVENTUALLY PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW THE TIMING OF THE FRONT DOWN...SO
BELIEVE THAT IT MOVE THROUGH SOMETIME ON FRIDAY. BECAUSE OF THE
MODEL DIFFERENCE HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.
REGARDLESS...BELIEVE THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
THROUGH WITH TEMPS NEAR AVG. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY ACROSS REGIONS SOUTH OF THE I-84
CORRIDOR. MODELS INDICATE SOME INSTABILITY WITH ABOUT 25KTS OF
SHEAR. PWAT VALUES OF OVER 1.5 INCHES LEADS FORECASTER TO BELIEVE
THAT HEAVY DOWNPOURS IS THE MAIN THREAT...BUT WITH FALLING HEIGHTS
AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES...SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS IS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION. ANY CHANCE FOR STRONG STORMS TO DEVELOP WILL
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AS DIURNAL HEATING IS LOST.

WEEKEND...TRICKY FORECAST IS PLAYING OUT FOR THE WEEKEND. MODELS
HAVE INDICATED THAT THE ELONGATED TROUGH WILL CUT OFF OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC AND SLOWLY ROTATE OVER NEW ENGLAND FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR MUCH COOLER AIR...WELL BELOW AVG AND EVEN HAS
SLOWED DOWN THE TIMING OF PRECIP. BELIEVE THAT PRECIP MAY LINGER
INTO SAT...BUT HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIP WILL OCCUR ON
SUNDAY. FOR NOW HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE SLOW DOWN TREND IN THE
FORECAST. EXPECT HIGHS REACHING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S WITH
LOWS DROPPING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S. IF SKIES CLEAR OUT AS
THIS COLD POOL SITS OVER US...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED AS THE ENTIRE REGION IS
OFFICIALLY IN THE GROWING SEASON.

MONDAY AND BEYOND...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL HELP TEMPS REACH SEASONAL
CONDITIONS. APPEARS THAT THERE IS LIMITED MOISTURE KEEPING THE
FORECAST DRY...HOWEVER CANNOT RULE OUT A SPOT SHOWER OR TWO...ESP
IF SEA BREEZES DEVELOPS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

OVERVIEW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF CEILINGS AND CONVECTION.

THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...
CIGS BELOW 1000 FEET LINGER ALONG THE EAST COAST...LIFTING TO 1500
TO 2500 FEET IN THE COASTAL PLAIN AND VFR IN THE CT VALLEY. EXPECT
CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST WILL BE TOUGH TO BREAK ESPECIALLY WHERE
WINDS LINGER OUT OF THE EAST. FOG LINGERS AT ACK AND IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

MEANWHILE AN AREA OF TSTMS MOVES IN FROM EASTERN NY WITH BRIEF
CIGS 500-1000 FEET AND VSBYS 1-3 MILES WHERE THEY MOVE OVERHEAD.
BRIEF STRONG WINDS AND HAIL POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS IN THE CT
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

TONIGHT...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SHOWERS/TSTMS DIMINISH IN INTENSITY BUT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION
LINGERS OVERNIGHT. THE WARM HUMID AIRMASS AND WET GROUND WILL
GENERATE MORE FOG WITH VSBYS 1-3 MILES IN GENERAL AND BELOW 1 MILE
IN THE COASTAL PLAIN.

THURSDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER. FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY LIFT
DURING THE MORNING. THE TAFS MAY BE TOO FAST IN LIFTING
CIGS/VSBYS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL REGENERATE DURING THE DAY
WITH MORE STRONG STORMS IN THE CT VALLEY AND CENTRAL HILLS.

KBOS TERMINAL...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS AND CEILINGS.

KBDL TERMINAL...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF CONVECTION
THROUGH THE PERIOD. COULD SEE BRIEF IFR IN AN AREA OF TSRA.
POTENTIAL FOR HAIL OR WIND GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS IN ISOLATED TSTMS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
ON SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENTS. VERY UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH
VARIABILITY BETWEEN VFR CONDITIONS AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN
SHRA/TSRA/FOG. IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH THURSDAY.
A FRONT IS STALLED ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS WITH EAST WINDS TO
THE NORTH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS TO THE SOUTH. THIS FRONT WILL SHIFT
NORTH TONIGHT WITH ALL WATERS TURNING TO SOUTHWEST WINDS.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH
POTENTIAL FOR 25 KNOTS ON THURSDAY. THIS WIND WILL CAUSE BUILDING
SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH 5-8 FOOT SEAS ON THE SOUTHERN EXPOSED
WATERS AND POSSIBLY THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS.

EXPECT LOW VSBYS IN FOG AND LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO
CLEAR THE WATERS...SO EXPECT SW WINDS IN PLACE FOR A PORTION OF
THE DAY BEFORE SHIFTING TO W-NW ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS.

THE WEEKEND...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SEAS WILL REMAIN ABOVE SCA FOR
MOST OF THE WEEKEND ESP FOR THE OUTER WATERS. GUSTY NW BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL BRING GUSTS CLOSE TO GALE FORCE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT.
EXPECT BOTH SEAS AND WIND TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGHOUT THE DAY
ON SUNDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ232>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THURSDAY TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ230-231-236-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN

000
FXUS61 KBOX 221920
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
320 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN NH AND NORTHEAST MASS WILL MOVE
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT. WARM HUMID SHOWERY WEATHER
CONTINUES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THIS
HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

THROUGH 00Z...
PARAMETERS SUCH AS THE C-B SIGNIFICANT SEVERE ARE FOCUSSED ON
EASTERN NY AND EXTEND INTO FRANKLIN AND CHESHIRE COUNTIES. THIS
AREA EXPANDS INTO HAMPSHIRE AND HAMPDEN COUNTIES MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING. THE MORE GENERAL PARAMETERS SUCH AS
LIFTED INDEX SHOW THE LOWEST VALUES IN THIS AREA AND ARE UNSTABLE
TO MANCHESTER AND METROWEST BOSTON/NORTHERN RI/NORTHERN CT.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE NEAR 1.5 INCHES...SUFFICIENT FOR
SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS. CONTINUE TO EXPECT SCATTERED TSTMS IN THIS
LATTER AREA WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE BEST SEVERE
POTENTIAL WILL BE IN WESTERN MASS AND SOUTHWEST NH. SVR TSTM
WATCH 210 IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

TONIGHT...
UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF US...TURNING WINDS INTO A SOUTHWEST
FLOW. THIS SHOULD MOTIVATE THE SURFACE FRONT TO MOVE NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT TONIGHT. THE EASTERLY MARINE SURFACE FLOW OVER THE
MERRIMACK VALLEY AND METRO BOSTON WOULD THEN BECOME SOUTHERLY AND
BRING IN WARMER MORE HUMID SURFACE AIR.

CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS REMAIN UNSTABLE OVERNIGHT...WHILE SUNSET
SHOULD WORK TOWARD STABILIZING THE AIRMASS A TAD. OVERALL POPS
WILL DIMINISH...BUT WITH A LINGERING CHANCE OF THUNDER. THE
GREATEST RISK WILL BE ACROSS THE CT VALLEY AND CENTRAL HILLS WITH
LESS OF A RISK ALONG THE COAST. TEMPS ARE A BLEND OF MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...

THURSDAY...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND UP THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY. MEANWHILE THE SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH DIGS OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND TURNS THE UPPER FLOW OVER US PAST SOUTHWEST
AND TOWARD SOUTH. THIS WILL SLOW DOWN THE PROGRESS OF THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT AND KEEP NEW ENGLAND IN THE WARM HUMID UNSETTLED
AIRMASS. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS REMAIN UNSTABLE WITH PREFERENCE FOR
THE CENTRAL HILLS/CT VALLEY/BERKSHIRE EAST SLOPE REGIONS. WILL
NEED TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER. ALSO...PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.75
INCHES WHICH INCREASES THE LIKELIHOOD OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
* COOLER AND LESS HUMID FOR THE WEEKEND

CONFIDENCE LEVEL/MODEL GUIDANCE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL
FORECAST. 00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN THE ELONGATED TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THERE IS STILL SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES ON WHEN THE SYSTEM WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST. REGARDLESS APPEARS THAT ELONGATED TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO
NEW ENGLAND EVENTUALLY BECOMING A CUTOFF LOW BY THE WEEKEND. THIS
LOW WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO THE MARITIMES BY THE BEGINNING OF
THE WORK WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT
PRECIP WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY AND COOLER TEMPS WILL DOMINATE THE
REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. LOW CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST AFTER TUES.

DETAILS...

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION EVENTUALLY PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW THE TIMING OF THE FRONT DOWN...SO
BELIEVE THAT IT MOVE THROUGH SOMETIME ON FRIDAY. BECAUSE OF THE
MODEL DIFFERENCE HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.
REGARDLESS...BELIEVE THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
THROUGH WITH TEMPS NEAR AVG. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY ACROSS REGIONS SOUTH OF THE I-84
CORRIDOR. MODELS INDICATE SOME INSTABILITY WITH ABOUT 25KTS OF
SHEAR. PWAT VALUES OF OVER 1.5 INCHES LEADS FORECASTER TO BELIEVE
THAT HEAVY DOWNPOURS IS THE MAIN THREAT...BUT WITH FALLING HEIGHTS
AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES...SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS IS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION. ANY CHANCE FOR STRONG STORMS TO DEVELOP WILL
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AS DIURNAL HEATING IS LOST.

WEEKEND...TRICKY FORECAST IS PLAYING OUT FOR THE WEEKEND. MODELS
HAVE INDICATED THAT THE ELONGATED TROUGH WILL CUT OFF OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC AND SLOWLY ROTATE OVER NEW ENGLAND FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR MUCH COOLER AIR...WELL BELOW AVG AND EVEN HAS
SLOWED DOWN THE TIMING OF PRECIP. BELIEVE THAT PRECIP MAY LINGER
INTO SAT...BUT HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIP WILL OCCUR ON
SUNDAY. FOR NOW HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE SLOW DOWN TREND IN THE
FORECAST. EXPECT HIGHS REACHING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S WITH
LOWS DROPPING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S. IF SKIES CLEAR OUT AS
THIS COLD POOL SITS OVER US...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED AS THE ENTIRE REGION IS
OFFICIALLY IN THE GROWING SEASON.

MONDAY AND BEYOND...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL HELP TEMPS REACH SEASONAL
CONDITIONS. APPEARS THAT THERE IS LIMITED MOISTURE KEEPING THE
FORECAST DRY...HOWEVER CANNOT RULE OUT A SPOT SHOWER OR TWO...ESP
IF SEA BREEZES DEVELOPS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

OVERVIEW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF CEILINGS AND CONVECTION.

THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...
CIGS BELOW 1000 FEET LINGER ALONG THE EAST COAST...LIFTING TO 1500
TO 2500 FEET IN THE COASTAL PLAIN AND VFR IN THE CT VALLEY. EXPECT
CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST WILL BE TOUGH TO BREAK ESPECIALLY WHERE
WINDS LINGER OUT OF THE EAST. FOG LINGERS AT ACK AND IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

MEANWHILE AN AREA OF TSTMS MOVES IN FROM EASTERN NY WITH BRIEF
CIGS 500-1000 FEET AND VSBYS 1-3 MILES WHERE THEY MOVE OVERHEAD.
BRIEF STRONG WINDS AND HAIL POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS IN THE CT
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

TONIGHT...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SHOWERS/TSTMS DIMINISH IN INTENSITY BUT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION
LINGERS OVERNIGHT. THE WARM HUMID AIRMASS AND WET GROUND WILL
GENERATE MORE FOG WITH VSBYS 1-3 MILES IN GENERAL AND BELOW 1 MILE
IN THE COASTAL PLAIN.

THURSDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER. FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY LIFT
DURING THE MORNING. THE TAFS MAY BE TOO FAST IN LIFTING
CIGS/VSBYS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL REGENERATE DURING THE DAY
WITH MORE STRONG STORMS IN THE CT VALLEY AND CENTRAL HILLS.

KBOS TERMINAL...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS AND CEILINGS.

KBDL TERMINAL...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF CONVECTION
THROUGH THE PERIOD. COULD SEE BRIEF IFR IN AN AREA OF TSRA.
POTENTIAL FOR HAIL OR WIND GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS IN ISOLATED TSTMS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
ON SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENTS. VERY UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH
VARIABILITY BETWEEN VFR CONDITIONS AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN
SHRA/TSRA/FOG. IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH THURSDAY.
A FRONT IS STALLED ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS WITH EAST WINDS TO
THE NORTH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS TO THE SOUTH. THIS FRONT WILL SHIFT
NORTH TONIGHT WITH ALL WATERS TURNING TO SOUTHWEST WINDS.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH
POTENTIAL FOR 25 KNOTS ON THURSDAY. THIS WIND WILL CAUSE BUILDING
SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH 5-8 FOOT SEAS ON THE SOUTHERN EXPOSED
WATERS AND POSSIBLY THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS.

EXPECT LOW VSBYS IN FOG AND LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO
CLEAR THE WATERS...SO EXPECT SW WINDS IN PLACE FOR A PORTION OF
THE DAY BEFORE SHIFTING TO W-NW ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS.

THE WEEKEND...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SEAS WILL REMAIN ABOVE SCA FOR
MOST OF THE WEEKEND ESP FOR THE OUTER WATERS. GUSTY NW BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL BRING GUSTS CLOSE TO GALE FORCE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT.
EXPECT BOTH SEAS AND WIND TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGHOUT THE DAY
ON SUNDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ255-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ235-254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ237.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN

000
FXUS61 KOKX 221815
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
215 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY INTO THURSDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL THEN SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST THURSDAY...THEN PASS
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THAT WENT THROUGH OVERNIGHT REMAINS STALLED
OUT TO THE W AND S OF THE AREA. HRRR AND RAP ARE THE ONLY MODELS WITH
ANY CLUE TO ITS EXISTENCE. LOOKING AT TRENDS IN VISIBLE SATELLITE
AND RAP SOUNDINGS...HAVE DOUBTS ABOUT HRRR/RAP SHOWING BOUNDARY
PUSH BACK INTO FAR W ZONES AS A WARM FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

AS A RESULT HAVE KEPT FORECAST CLOUDY-MOSTLY CLOUDY AND LOWERED
TEMPERATURES AGAIN. NOW FORECASTING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S...WITH
UPPER 60S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

STILL APPEARS MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY THIS AFTERNOON PER
HRRR/RAP. HOWEVER WITH CONVECTION FIRING W OF AREA...HAVE KEPT
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE NW 1/2 OF THE
CWA WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER. ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOST
LIKELY BE ELEVATED IN NATURE AS THEY MOVE OVER THE AREA DUE TO THE
MARINE INVERSION IN PLACE...SO THE SEVERE THREAT THIS AFTERNOON IS
NIL ACROSS THE SE 1/2 OF THE CWA AND LESS THAN 5 PERCENT ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
INCREASING CONCERN THAT THE MARINE LAYER WILL NOT DISSIPATE/FRONT
LIFT TO THE N BY THIS EVENING - AND THAT THE MARINE LAYER WILL
MAINTAIN ITSELF OVER MOST IF NOT ALL THE AREA TONIGHT. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS - BUT COULD END UP MAKING SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO TONIGHTS FORECAST IF CURRENT TRENDS HOLD.

SCT-ISOLD SHOWERS AND TSTMS THIS EVENING. CONVECTION SHOULD BE
SCATTERED AT BEST WITH ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY IN PLACE. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THURSDAY AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACH THE
AREA.

HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAIN ISSUE FOR THE START OF THIS PERIOD IS THE INTERACTION OF THE
EASTWARD MOVING CENTRAL US TROUGH WITH SEVERAL NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND A PERSISTENT EASTERN CANADIAN TROUGH. THE
COMPLEX INTERACTION IS RESULTING IN TIMING AND AMPLIFICATION ISSUES
AS THIS TROUGH SLIDES TO THE EAST COAST. GFS CONTINUES TO BE SLOWER
THAN ALL THE GUIDANCE FRI INTO SAT AS THE UPPER LOW NEGATIVELY TILTS
AND CLOSES OFF AS IT APPROACHES THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS WOULD
RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF POST-FRONTAL RAIN INTO SAT. WITH
MAJORITY OF 00Z OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE TRENDING A BIT SLOWER...HAVE
ALSO TRENDED A BIT SLOWER WITH PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY TAPERING
OFF FRI AFTERNOON INTO FRI NIGHT. SUBSEQUENT MODEL TRENDS WILL
NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED TO SEE IF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM SLOWS
DOWN EVEN FURTHER.

AS FOR THE SENSIBLE WEATHER...COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES THE REGION
THU NIGHT INTO FRI. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BE FALLING TO
MARGINAL LEVELS THURSDAY NIGHT...WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE STREAMING AHEAD OF
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE ENERGY/COLD FRONT. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
DIMINISH INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH HEAVY RAIN THE MAIN THREAT
WITH PWATS ABOUT 2 STD ABOVE NORMAL AND STEERING FLOW NEARLY ALIGNED
WITH THE SLOW MOVING FRONT. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE EXTENT OF
INTERACTION OF THE FRONT WITH A SUBTROPICAL PLUME STREAMING UP THE
COAST THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH IF CLOSER TO THE COAST WOULD ENHANCE
THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT. CONVECTIVE THREAT SHOULD DECREASE IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...BUT POTENTIAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT COULD
PROLONG LIGHT TO MODERATE POST-FRONTAL STRATIFORM RAINS THROUGH
FRIDAY INTO FRI NIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS.
AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL SHOULD BE CLOSE TO AN INCH...WITH LOCALIZED
HIGHER AMOUNTS.

A DRYING NW FLOW SET UPS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT WITH STRONG COLD
ADVECTION. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO LINGER OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
AS A RESULT...IMPROVEMENT HAS BEEN QUITE SLOW. IFR/MVFR CIGS AND
VSBY GENERALLY THE STANDARD. SOME POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE MORE
IMPROVEMENT PRIMARILY AT NW TERMINALS.

RECENT OBS SHOW WINDS FINALLY TURNING S AT KJFK/KEWR...WHICH MAY
BE A SIGN OF BRIEFLY INCREASING VSBY/CIGS. HOWEVER...BASED ON
CURRENT OBS AND DEVELOPING S WIND...GROWING POTENTIAL FOR IFR
VSBY TO PUSH BACK INTO COASTAL TERMINALS OVER NEXT FEW HOURS.

POTENTIAL FOR CONDITIONS TO DROP SOLIDLY INTO IFR AGAIN
TONIGHT...HOWEVER MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS OVER TIMING AND EXTENT.
POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS FOR LIFR/VLIFR ACROSS COASTAL TERMINALS.

DID NOT SHOW TS IN TAFS ON THURSDAY JUST YET...AS UPPER-LEVEL FLOW
INDICATES STORMS MAY BE SLOW TO APPROACH WESTERN TERMINALS AND
COULD HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY. HOWEVER...LOW END
POTENTIAL EXISTS AT W TERMS GENERALLY 23/18Z THRU 24/00Z.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: POSSIBILITY FOR VSBY TO DROP QUICKER/LOWER
THAN FORECAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: POTENTIAL FOR CIGS TO GO VFR BRIEFLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. WIND DIRECTION MAY STAY E/NE A
COUPLE HOURS LONGER THAN INDICATED IN TAF.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: CIGS MAY RISE HIGHER THAN INDICATED IN TAF
OVER NEXT 2-3 HOURS. POTENTIAL FOR VSBY/CIGS LOWER THAN FORECAST
TONIGHT.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: CIGS MAY RISE HIGHER THAN INDICATED IN TAF
OVER NEXT 2-3 HOURS. POTENTIAL FOR VSBY/CIGS LOWER THAN FORECAST
TONIGHT.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: CIGS MAY RISE HIGHER THAN INDICATED IN TAF
OVER NEXT 2-3 HOURS. POTENTIAL FOR VSBY/CIGS LOWER THAN FORECAST
TONIGHT.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: POSSIBILITY FOR VSBY TO DROP QUICKER/LOWER
THAN FORECAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...NUMEROUS SHRA AND TSTMS POSSIBLE....PRIMARILY
THUR NIGHT AND FRIDAY. IFR POSSIBLE IN FOG AND STRATUS.
.SATURDAY...SHRA LIKELY WITH MVFR OR LOWER. N WINDS 25-30G35KT.
.SUNDAY...MOST LIKELY VFR WITH NW WINDS 20-25KT. POTENTIAL FOR G
UP TO 40KT.
.MONDAY...VFR. NW WINDS 15-20G25KT.

&&

.MARINE...
BASED ON HRRR AND LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS AND WEB-CAMS HAVE
EXTENDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL OCEAN ZONES...NY
HARBOR AND THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND THROUGH 22Z. GIVEN
NO RESTRICTIONS OF 1NM OR LESS IN VISIBILITY EVIDENT ON SOUND OR
EASTERN BAYS OF LONG ISLAND...HAVE CANCELLED THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY THERE.

THERE SEEMS TO BE INCREASING POTENIAL FOR DENSE FOG OVER THE
SOUTHERN WATERS TO CONTINUE TONIGHT. IF TRENDS HOLD...WILL EXTEND
THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN TIME THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THE LATE
AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE.

SEAS ARE NOT INCREASING AS FAST AS FORECAST...SO HAVE ADJUSTED
DOWNWARD A FOOT OR SO ACROSS MOST OCEAN AREAS INTO THIS EVENING.

SEAS SLOWLY BUILD THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING TO SCA LEVELS ON THE
COASTAL OCEAN WATERS AND REMAIN ABOVE SCA LEVELS THROUGH
THURSDAY. SW FLOW INCREASES OVER THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS TONIGHT
AS WELL WITH SFC BOUNDARY LIFTING TO NEAR THE LONG ISLAND COAST IF
NOT FARTHER N.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA WATERS LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY FALL BELOW MARGINAL SCA LEVELS
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH SCA SEAS ON THE OCEAN LIKELY REMAINING ABOVE
SCA CRITERIA THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH RESIDUAL SOUTHERLY
SWELLS. UNDERCUT WAVEWATCH BY A FOOT DURING THIS TIME AS IT WAS
SLOWER BRINGING THE FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS THOUGH
SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE SEAS DUE TO THE TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST
THE MODELS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS EVENING WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH THE BEST CHANCES NORTH/WEST OF NYC.
TOTAL BASIN AVG QPF FOR WED-THU COULD BE 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN TSTMS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATE
THU INTO FRIDAY MORNING...SHOULD PRODUCE AVERAGE BASIN
RAINFALL AMOUNTS CLOSE TO AN INCH...WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING OF THUNDERSTORMS WHICH COULD
RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING. ADDITIONAL LIGHTER RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
LIKELY FRIDAY...POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ338-345-
     350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...24/NV
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/NV
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...PICCA
MARINE...24/MALOIT/NV
HYDROLOGY...24/NV

000
FXUS61 KALY 221753
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
153 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY
INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TOMORROW. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST INTO THURSDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG THIS FRONT ON THE COAST
FRIDAY...AS MUCH COLDER AIR POURS INTO THE REGION...AS THE WEATHER
MAY STAY UNSETTLED INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 210 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM...

CONVECTION HAS FIRED OVER THE CWA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST
MESOANALYSIS INDICATED CAPES CLIMBING TO 1000 J/KG MAINLY TO THE
WEST OF HUDSON RIVER. BULK SHEAR IS QUITE RESPECTABLE ESPECIALLY
NORTH HALF OF CWA WHERE VALUES EXCEED 40 KNOTS. SO EXPECT STORM
MODE TO BE MAINLY MULTICELLULAR...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SUPERCELLS. MAIN THREAT WILL BE HAIL WITH WIND ALSO A FACTOR.

WE WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING. MAIN CONCERN
WOULD BE EASTERN ZONES WHERE RAINFALL OF 2-3 INCHES WAS RECORDED
LAST NIGHT. FLOW IS FAIRLY ROBUST...SO STORMS SHOULD MOVE ALONG.
HOWEVER...ANY TRAINING OF CELLS WILL LEAD TO ISSUES.

CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVNG HOURS AND DIM OVERNIGHT AS
FCA IS FIRMLY IN WARM SECTION. LOWS AND TD WILL BE IN THE
60S...AND AREAS OF PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THU AND THU NT 500HPA TROF STARTS MOVING E THROUGH GRTLKS AS SFC
LOW ORGANIZES ALONG SEMI-STALLED FRONT FROM FM LK ERIE UP ST
LAWRENCE VLY. THIS SYSTEM PUSHES SLOWLY EAST DRAGGING A CDFNT TO
BTV-SYR LINE THU AFTN...AND THROUGH FCA BY 12UTC FRI. NAM/GFS IN
PRETTY CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THIS TIMING. WHILE THERE IS INCRG
DYNAMICS WITH APPROACHING JET AND TROF...CAPES 1000-1500 ...CLOUDS
WILL BE WIDESPREAD HOLDING MAX TEMPS TO MID 70S TO AROUND 80. SPC HAS
ONLY PUT AREA IN SEE TEXT ATTM...WITH LOW PROBS DUE TO LIMITED
INSTABILITY. REGARDLESS AREA WILL SEE PERIOD OF -SHRA/TSTMS INCRG
THU...TRANSITIONING TO -SHRA/-RA BEHIND THE CDFNT OVERNIGHT.

BY FRI MORNING CDFNT WILL BE IN I-95 CORRIDOR ALONG THE ATLC
COAST. 500HPA TROF WILL BE MOVING INTO NE USA...AND BOTH MODELS
DEVELOP A MODEST SFC LOW OVER NJ. THE WARMTH OF PAST FEW DAYS
WILL GIVE WAY TO A COOL BREEZY WITH -SHRA FRI. FINALLY SFC LOW
MOVES OFFSHORE FRI NT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GRTLKS.
HWVR THE 500HPA TROF LINGERS AND CUTS OFF OVER NEW ENG SAT.
BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS A BRISK NW GRADIENT WILL DRIVE SOME
PRETTY COOL AIR INTO THE REGION FOR LATE MAY. WITH 500HPA CUT OFF
LINGERING SKIES MAY ONLY BE PS SAT IN GFS.

TEMPS WILL PROBABLY GO NOWHERE FRI...ONLY COMING OFF MORNING LOWS
A FEW DEG...OR HOLDING STEADY.

THE GFS/NAM ARE PROGRESSIVE WITH SFC LOW DEPARTING THE COAST FRI
NT...WITH ITS 500 HPA TROF CROSSING REGION SAT AND DEPARTING SAT
NT WITH PC SKIES AND A RATHER BRISK WIND GRADIENT.

THE 00UTC ECMWF CUTS OFF THE 500HPA LOW OVER NJ...DEVELOPS A
COASTAL LOW...WHICH LINGERS ALONG THE EAST COAST FOR THE WEEKEND
WITH PERIODS OF RAW CHILLY RAIN.

THE GFS TEMPS WOULD BRING MINS SAT MORNING INTO THE MID 30S TO
MID 40S WITH SOME NEAR 30 AND POTENTIAL FROST/FREEZE ISSUES IN
ADRNDKS. HIGHS SAT WILL ONLY REBOUND EVEN WITH THE STRONG SUN TO
THE 60S. LOWS SAT NIGHT WOULD AGAIN BE IN THE 30S. WINDS WILL
REMAIN BRISK. ECMWF WOULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY WARMER NIGHT TIME
TEMPS AND COOLER YET DAYTIME TEMPS IN MID 50S TO LOW 60S. HPC
LEANS TWRD A BLEND WITH CHC POPS LINGERING INTO SAT. IT WILL BE A
FALL LIKE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.

WILL LEAN TWRD GFS/HPC BLEND THROUGH SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE ECMWF KEEPS THE 500HPA CUTOFF OVER RGN AND SFC LOW NEAR NEW
ENGLAND COAST FOR A RAW CHILLY WEEKEND...FINALLY CLEARING ON
MONDAY. HWVR AT THIS TIME ITS TO BE CONSIDERED AN OUTLIER.

GFS/NAM/HPC PROGRESSIVELY MOVE THIS SYSTEM ALONG. 17 OF 20
MEMBERS OF THE GEFS ENSEMBLE KEEP IT DRY FROM FRI NIGHT ONWARD.
ONLY 3 HAVE ANY QPF. SO THE WORST CASE IN THE GFS IS SOME CLOUDS
FOR SUNDAY MRNG. OVERALL THE SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE GRTLKS
SHIFTING SLOWLY EAST TO FCA BY TUES. AT 500 HPA RIDGE BUILDS FROM
GRT PLAINS TO GRTLKS.

PERIOD WILL START OFF PARTLY CLOUDY W/BLO NORMAL TEMPS AND A BREEZE
CONTINUING SUNDAY. SCT FROST AND FREEZE WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
HIR TRRN. IN TIME THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO BRILLIANT SUNSHINE MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPS RETURNING TO NORMAL MONDAY AND
ABV BY TUESDAY AND WED.

WILL POPULATE WITH HPC MIDNIGHT SHIFT GUID.

THE GROWING SEASON IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...
GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...THE MOHAWK
VALLEY...EASTERN CATSKILLS...TACONICS...BERKSHIRES...BENNINGTON AND
EASTERN WINDHAM COUNTIES VT AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY. IT WILL START ON
MAY 25TH FOR THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN WINDHAM COUNTY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR PREVAILING WITH PERIODS OF MVFR FOR THE BALANCE OF THE
AFTERNOON.  SCATTERED -SHRA AND TSRA WILL DIRECTLY AFFECT OR BE IN
THE VICINITY OF THE AIRPORTS FROM THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD
THROUGH AT LEAST 22Z.  CLOUDS WILL BE HARD TO CLEAR
OUT...PARTICULARLY THE HIGH-LEVEL CI/CS...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT
INSTABILITY AND THE PROLIFERATION OF TS.  HIGH DEWPOINTS OVERNIGHT
WILL RESULT IN SOME HAZY FOG...MAINLY MVFR...WITH A PERIOD OF IFR
FOG POSS AT KPSF WHERE WINDS THRU THE COLUMN WILL BE LIGHTER.

WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE ENVIRONMENT EXPECTED INTO EARLY
THURSDAY...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT THE AIRPORTS
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH MORE TS ACTIVITY IS
LIKELY...THOUGH PERHAPS NOT UNTIL AFTER THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
EXPECTING A PERIOD OF MARGINAL SHEAR DURING THE EARLY NIGHT EXCEPT
AT KPSF...35 KNOTS SHOULD BE ABOUT IT.  SURFACE WINDS WILL HOLD UP
OVERNIGHT AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS...PICKING UP TO SPEEDS ON THURSDAY
AVERAGING SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN TODAY.

OUTLOOK...
THU PM AND NGT...MVFR WITH IFR POSSIBLE. -SHRA/-TSRA LIKELY.
FRI-FRI NGT...MAINLY VFR. CHC -SHRA/-TSRA...MAINLY IN THE AM.
SAT-SUN...VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH FRIDAY. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY.

RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...AND LOWER TO 45 TO 60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL MAINLY LESS THAN 10 MPH THROUGH TONIGHT...BECOMING
SOUTHWEST AROUND 10MPH THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
PWATS ON THE ORDER OF 1.5 TO 2.0 INCHES NEXT FEW DAYS. WHILE
WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN
THUNDERSTORMS AND TRAINING COULD RESULT IN SMALL STREAM AND URBAN
FLOODING OVERNIGHT AND AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. SIGNIFICANT WITHIN
BANK RISES ARE LIKELY IN LARGER RIVERS.

3-HR ZONAL FFG VALUES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 2.5-3.0 INCH RANGE AT
THIS TIME...WHICH ARE HIGH FOR MID TO LATE MAY.

DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
BASIN AVERAGE QPF WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE THIS WEEK. THE BEST
THREAT FOR SEEING SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL THIS AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER/WASULA
NEAR TERM...OKEEFE/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...ELH
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER

000
FXUS61 KALY 221724
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
124 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY
INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TOMORROW. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST INTO THURSDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG THIS FRONT ON THE COAST
FRIDAY...AS MUCH COLDER AIR POURS INTO THE REGION...AS THE WEATHER
MAY STAY UNSETTLED INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 210 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM...

CONVECTION HAS FIRED OVER THE CWA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LASTEST
MESOANALYSIS INDICATED CAPES CLIMBING TO 1000 J/KG MAINLY TO THE
WEST OF HUDSON RIVER. BULK SHEAR IS QUITE RESPECTABLE ESPECIALLY
NORTH HALF OF CWA WHERE VALUES EXCEED 40 KNOTS. SO EXPECT STORM
MODE TO BE MAINLY MULTICELLULAR...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SUPERCELLS. MAIN THREAT WILL BE HAIL WITH WIND ALSO A FACTOR.

WE WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING. MAIN CONCERN
WOULD BE EASTERN ZONES WHERE RAINFALL OF 2-3 INCHES WAS RECORDED
LAST NIGHT. FLOW IS FAIRLY ROBUST...SO STORMS SHOULD MOVE ALONG.
HOWEVER...ANY TRAINING OF CELLS WILL LEAD TO ISSUES.

CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVNG HOURS AND DIM OVERNIGHT AS
FCA IS FIRMLY IN WARM SECTION. LOWS AND TD WILL BE IN THE
60S...AND AREAS OF PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THU AND THU NT 500HPA TROF STARTS MOVING E THROUGH GRTLKS AS SFC
LOW ORGANIZES ALONG SEMI-STALLED FRONT FROM FM LK ERIE UP ST
LAWRENCE VLY. THIS SYSTEM PUSHES SLOWLY EAST DRAGGING A CDFNT TO
BTV-SYR LINE THU AFTN...AND THROUGH FCA BY 12UTC FRI. NAM/GFS IN
PRETTY CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THIS TIMING. WHILE THERE IS INCRG
DYNAMICS WITH APPROACHING JET AND TROF...CAPES 1000-1500 ...CLOUDS
WILL BE WIDESPREAD HOLDING MAX TEMPS TO MID 70S TO AROUND 80. SPC HAS
ONLY PUT AREA IN SEE TEXT ATTM...WITH LOW PROBS DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY.
REGARDLESS AREA WILL SEE PERIOD OF -SHRA/TSTMS INCRG THU...TRANSITIONING
TO -SHRA/-RA BEHIND THE CDFNT OVERNIGHT.

BY FRI MORNING CDFNT WILL BE IN I-95 CORRIDOR ALONG THE ATLC
COAST. 500HPA TROF WILL BE MOVING INTO NE USA...AND BOTH MODELS
DEVELOP A MODEST SFC LOW OVER NJ. THE WARMTH OF PAST FEW DAYS
WILL GIVE WAY TO A COOL BREEZY WITH -SHRA FRI. FINALLY SFC LOW
MOVES OFFSHORE FRI NT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GRTLKS.
HWVR THE 500HPA TROF LINGERS AND CUTS OFF OVER NEW ENG SAT.
BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS A BRISK NW GRADIENT WILL DRIVE SOME
PRETTY COOL AIR INTO THE REGION FOR LATE MAY. WITH 500HPA CUT OFF
LINGERING SKIES MAY ONLY BE PS SAT IN GFS.

TEMPS WILL PROBABLY GO NOWHERE FRI...ONLY COMING OFF MORNING LOWS
A FEW DEG...OR HOLDING STEADY.

THE GFS/NAM ARE PROGRESSIVE WITH SFC LOW DEPARTING THE COAST FRI
NT...WITH ITS 500 HPA TROF CROSSING REGION SAT AND DEPARTING SAT
NT WITH PC SKIES AND A RATHER BRISK WIND GRADIENT.

THE 00UTC ECMWF CUTS OFF THE 500HPA LOW OVER NJ...DEVELOPS A
COASTAL LOW...WHICH LINGERS ALONG THE EAST COAST FOR THE WEEKEND
WITH PERIODS OF RAW CHILLY RAIN.

THE GFS TEMPS WOULD BRING MINS SAT MORNING INTO THE MID 30S TO
MID 40S WITH SOME NEAR 30 AND POTENTIAL FROST/FREEZE ISSUES IN
ADRNDKS. HIGHS SAT WILL ONLY REBOUND EVEN WITH THE STRONG SUN TO
THE 60S. LOWS SAT NIGHT WOULD AGAIN BE IN THE 30S. WINDS WILL
REMAIN BRISK. ECMWF WOULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY WARMER NIGHT TIME
TEMPS AND COOLER YET DAYTIME TEMPS IN MID 50S TO LOW 60S. HPC
LEANS TWRD A BLEND WITH CHC POPS LINGERING INTO SAT. IT WILL BE A
FALL LIKE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.

WILL LEAN TWRD GFS/HPC BLEND THROUGH SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE ECMWF KEEPS THE 500HPA CUTOFF OVER RGN AND SFC LOW NEAR NEW
ENGLAND COAST FOR A RAW CHILLY WEEKEND...FINALLY CLEARING ON
MONDAY. HWVR AT THIS TIME ITS TO BE CONSIDERED AN OUTLIER.

GFS/NAM/HPC PROGRESSIVELY MOVE THIS SYSTEM ALONG. 17 OF 20
MEMBERS OF THE GEFS ENSEMBLE KEEP IT DRY FROM FRI NIGHT ONWARD.
ONLY 3 HAVE ANY QPF. SO THE WORST CASE IN THE GFS IS SOME CLOUDS
FOR SUNDAY MRNG. OVERALL THE SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE GRTLKS
SHIFTING SLOWLY EAST TO FCA BY TUES. AT 500 HPA RIDGE BUILDS FROM
GRT PLAINS TO GRTLKS.

PERIOD WILL START OFF PARTLY CLOUDY W/BLO NORMAL TEMPS AND A BREEZE
CONTINUING SUNDAY. SCT FROST AND FREEZE WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
HIR TRRN. IN TIME THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO BRILLIANT SUNSHINE MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPS RETURNING TO NORMAL MONDAY AND
ABV BY TUESDAY AND WED.

WILL POPULATE WITH HPC MIDNIGHT SHIFT GUID.

THE GROWING SEASON IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...
GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...THE
MOHAWK VALLEY...EASTERN CATSKILLS...TACONICS...BERKSHIRES...BENNINGTON
AND EASTERN WINDHAM COUNTIES VT AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY. IT WILL
START ON MAY 25TH FOR THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN WINDHAM
COUNTY.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOME LOW CLOUDS ARE AFFECTING MOST OF THE TAF SITE THIS
MORNING...WITH IFR SCATTERED VARIABLE BROKEN AT KALB...SOLID IFR
AT KPSF AND KGFL AND SOLID MVFR AT KPOU. SOME FOG IS OCCURRING AT
KPSF. THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD LIFT BTWN 13-15Z...LEAVING A
MIX OF CLOUDS ABOVE 3000 FEET AGL FOR THE REST OF THE DAY AT ALL
SITES.

THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE MUCH
OF TONIGHT...BUT DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE...JUST PUTTING VCSH
UNTIL REGIONS OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT CAN BE OBSERVED AND
MOVEMENT CAN BE TRACKED LATER TODAY.  WHEREVER THUNDERSTORMS
OCCUR...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR BUT AGAIN...SCATTERED
NATURE TO THUNDERSTORMS PREVENTING ACKNOWLEDGING IN TAFS FOR NOW.

WINDS SHOULD BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 KT OR LESS TODAY...
DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 10 KT TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
THU...MVFR WITH IFR POSSIBLE. -SHRA/-TSRA LIKELY.
THU NIGHT...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA/-TSRA ESPECIALLY IN THE EVNG.
FRI...MAINLY VFR. CHC -TSRA MAINLY IN THE AM.
SAT-SUN...VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH FRIDAY. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY.

RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...AND LOWER TO 45 TO 60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL MAINLY LESS THAN 10 MPH THROUGH TONIGHT...BECOMING
SOUTHWEST AROUND 10MPH THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
PWATS ON THE ORDER OF 1.5 TO 2.0 INCHES NEXT FEW DAYS. WHILE
WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN
THUNDERSTORMS AND TRAINING COULD RESULT IN SMALL STREAM AND URBAN
FLOODING OVERNIGHT AND AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. SIGNIFICANT WITHIN
BANK RISES ARE LIKELY IN LARGER RIVERS.

3-HR ZONAL FFG VALUES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 2.5-3.0 INCH RANGE AT
THIS TIME...WHICH ARE HIGH FOR MID TO LATE MAY.

DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
BASIN AVERAGE QPF WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE THIS WEEK. THE BEST
THREAT FOR SEEING SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL THIS AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER/WASULA
NEAR TERM...OKEEFE/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...NAS/WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER

000
FXUS61 KOKX 221649
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1249 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY INTO THURSDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL THEN SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST THURSDAY...THEN PASS
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THAT WENT THROUGH OVERNIGHT REMAINS STALLED
OUT TO THE W AND S OF THE AREA. HRRR AND RAP ARE THE ONLY MODELS WITH
ANY CLUE TO ITS EXISTENCE. LOOKING AT TRENDS IN VISIBLE SATELLITE
AND RAP SOUNDINGS...HAVE DOUBTS ABOUT HRRR/RAP SHOWING BOUNDARY
PUSH BACK INTO FAR W ZONES AS A WARM FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

AS A RESULT HAVE KEPT FORECAST CLOUDY-MOSTLY CLOUDY AND LOWERED
TEMPERATURES AGAIN. NOW FORECASTING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S...WITH
UPPER 60S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

STILL APPEARS MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY THIS AFTERNOON PER
HRRR/RAP. HOWEVER WITH CONVECTION FIRING W OF AREA...HAVE KEPT
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE NW 1/2 OF THE
CWA WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER. ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOST
LIKELY BE ELEVATED IN NATURE AS THEY MOVE OVER THE AREA DUE TO THE
MARINE INVERSION IN PLACE...SO THE SEVERE THREAT THIS AFTERNOON IS
NIL ACROSS THE SE 1/2 OF THE CWA AND LESS THAN 5 PERCENT ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
INCREASING CONCERN THAT THE MARINE LAYER WILL NOT DISSIPATE/FRONT
LIFT TO THE N BY THIS EVENING - AND THAT THE MARINE LAYER WILL
MAINTAIN ITSELF OVER MOST IF NOT ALL THE AREA TONIGHT. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS - BUT COULD END UP MAKING SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO TONIGHTS FORECAST IF CURRENT TRENDS HOLD.

SCT-ISOLD SHOWERS AND TSTMS THIS EVENING. CONVECTION SHOULD BE
SCATTERED AT BEST WITH ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY IN PLACE. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THURSDAY AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACH THE
AREA.

HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAIN ISSUE FOR THE START OF THIS PERIOD IS THE INTERACTION OF THE
EASTWARD MOVING CENTRAL US TROUGH WITH SEVERAL NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND A PERSISTENT EASTERN CANADIAN TROUGH. THE
COMPLEX INTERACTION IS RESULTING IN TIMING AND AMPLIFICATION ISSUES
AS THIS TROUGH SLIDES TO THE EAST COAST. GFS CONTINUES TO BE SLOWER
THAN ALL THE GUIDANCE FRI INTO SAT AS THE UPPER LOW NEGATIVELY TILTS
AND CLOSES OFF AS IT APPROACHES THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS WOULD
RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF POST-FRONTAL RAIN INTO SAT. WITH
MAJORITY OF 00Z OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE TRENDING A BIT SLOWER...HAVE
ALSO TRENDED A BIT SLOWER WITH PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY TAPERING
OFF FRI AFTERNOON INTO FRI NIGHT. SUBSEQUENT MODEL TRENDS WILL
NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED TO SEE IF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM SLOWS
DOWN EVEN FURTHER.

AS FOR THE SENSIBLE WEATHER...COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES THE REGION
THU NIGHT INTO FRI. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BE FALLING TO
MARGINAL LEVELS THURSDAY NIGHT...WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE STREAMING AHEAD OF
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE ENERGY/COLD FRONT. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
DIMINISH INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH HEAVY RAIN THE MAIN THREAT
WITH PWATS ABOUT 2 STD ABOVE NORMAL AND STEERING FLOW NEARLY ALIGNED
WITH THE SLOW MOVING FRONT. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE EXTENT OF
INTERACTION OF THE FRONT WITH A SUBTROPICAL PLUME STREAMING UP THE
COAST THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH IF CLOSER TO THE COAST WOULD ENHANCE
THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT. CONVECTIVE THREAT SHOULD DECREASE IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...BUT POTENTIAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT COULD
PROLONG LIGHT TO MODERATE POST-FRONTAL STRATIFORM RAINS THROUGH
FRIDAY INTO FRI NIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS.
AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL SHOULD BE CLOSE TO AN INCH...WITH LOCALIZED
HIGHER AMOUNTS.

A DRYING NW FLOW SET UPS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT WITH STRONG COLD
ADVECTION. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO LINGER OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING.
AS A RESULT...HAVE GONE MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE DAY...SHOWING IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS AND VSBY GENERALLY
AROUND 17Z-21Z. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THIS
IMPROVEMENT...ESPECIALLY FOR CIGS...IS LOW. POTENTIAL FOR WINDS
TO STAY LIGHTER / MORE EASTERLY FOR A LONGER PERIOD THAN INDICATED
IN TAFS AS WELL.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON...GENERALLY AT KSWF AND PERHAPS KHPN. MARINE LAYER
LIKELY TO KEEP TS AWAY FROM TERMINALS FARTHER SE.

IT COULD BE ANOTHER TRICKY NIGHT FORECASTING VFR/IFR CONDITIONS.
LATEST GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT IFR OR LESS CONDITIONS AT THE
OUTLYING TERMINALS...HOWEVER GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON TIMING AND JUST
HOW LOW CIGS AND VSBYS GET. WILL HOLD OFF IN LOWERING CONDITIONS
TOO MUCH WITH LOW CONFIDENCE HOWEVER THIS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WILL BE
AT KGON.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE IN MUCH IMPROVEMENT AT
17Z...ESPECIALLY FOR CIGS. WINDS COULD STAY LIGHTER/MORE E FOR 1-2
HOURS LONGER THAN INDICATED IN TAF.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE IN MUCH IMPROVEMENT AT
17Z...ESPECIALLY FOR CIGS. WINDS COULD STAY LIGHTER/MORE E FOR 1-2
HOURS LONGER THAN INDICATED IN TAF.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE IN MUCH IMPROVEMENT AT
17Z...ESPECIALLY FOR CIGS. WINDS COULD STAY LIGHTER/MORE E FOR 1-2
HOURS LONGER THAN INDICATED IN TAF.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS YELLOW...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE IN MUCH IMPROVEMENT AT
17Z...ESPECIALLY FOR CIGS. WINDS COULD STAY LIGHTER FOR 1-2 HOURS
LONGER THAN INDICATED IN TAF.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE IN MUCH IMPROVEMENT AROUND
18-21Z...ESPECIALLY FOR CIGS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW POTENTIAL FOR CIGS/VSBY TO IMPROVE TO
MVFR OR HIGHER LEVELS AROUND 17-18Z. WIND SPEEDS MAY BE 1-2 HOURS
SLOWER TO INCREASE THAN SHOWN IN TAF.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...NUMEROUS SHRA AND TSTMS POSSIBLE. IFR POSSIBLE IN
FOG AND STRATUS.
.SATURDAY...RESIDUAL SHRA BEHIND A COLD FRONT WITH MVFR. BECOMING VFR
WITH NW WINDS INCREASING TO 20-30KT.
.SUNDAY...VFR WITH NW WINDS 20-25KT.

&&

.MARINE...
BASED ON HRRR AND LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS AND WEB-CAMS HAVE
EXTENDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL OCEAN ZONES...NY
HARBOR AND THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND THROUGH 22Z. GIVEN
NO RESTRICTIONS OF 1NM OR LESS IN VISIBILITY EVIDENT ON SOUND OR
EASTERN BAYS OF LONG ISLAND...HAVE CANCELLED THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY THERE.

THERE SEEMS TO BE INCREASING POTENIAL FOR DENSE FOG OVER THE
SOUTHERN WATERS TO CONTINUE TONIGHT. IF TRENDS HOLD...WILL EXTEND
THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN TIME THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THE LATE
AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE.

SEAS ARE NOT INCREASING AS FAST AS FORECAST...SO HAVE ADJUSTED
DOWNWARD A FOOT OR SO ACROSS MOST OCEAN AREAS INTO THIS EVENING.

SEAS SLOWLY BUILD THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING TO SCA LEVELS ON THE
COASTAL OCEAN WATERS AND REMAIN ABOVE SCA LEVELS THROUGH
THURSDAY. SW FLOW INCREASES OVER THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS TONIGHT
AS WELL WITH SFC BOUNDARY LIFTING TO NEAR THE LONG ISLAND COAST IF
NOT FARTHER N.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA WATERS LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY FALL BELOW MARGINAL SCA LEVELS
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH SCA SEAS ON THE OCEAN LIKELY REMAINING ABOVE
SCA CRITERIA THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH RESIDUAL SOUTHERLY
SWELLS. UNDERCUT WAVEWATCH BY A FOOT DURING THIS TIME AS IT WAS
SLOWER BRINGING THE FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS THOUGH
SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE SEAS DUE TO THE TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST
THE MODELS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS EVENING WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH THE BEST CHANCES NORTH/WEST OF NYC.
TOTAL BASIN AVG QPF FOR WED-THU COULD BE 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN TSTMS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATE
THU INTO FRIDAY MORNING...SHOULD PRODUCE AVERAGE BASIN
RAINFALL AMOUNTS CLOSE TO AN INCH...WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING OF THUNDERSTORMS WHICH COULD
RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING. ADDITIONAL LIGHTER RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
LIKELY FRIDAY...POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ338-345-
     350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/24/NV
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT/24
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...BC/PICCA
MARINE...MALOIT/24/NV
HYDROLOGY...24/NV

000
FXUS61 KOKX 221504
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1104 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY INTO THURSDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL THEN SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST THURSDAY...THEN PASS
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HRRR IS THE ONLY MODEL WHICH SHOWS SHALLOW BACK DOOR FRONT MAKING
PROGRESS AS FAR TO THE S AND W AS IT DID...AND HOLDS THE FRONT
PRIMARILY TO OUT S AND W THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON. SUSPECT
THAT EVEN THE HRRR IS TOO FAST TO ERODE MARINE LAYER.

EXPECT MOST OF THE AREA TO BE CLOUDY THROUGH THE DAY AS A RESULT.

FOR NOW HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY SCALED BACK ON POPS FOR
TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SE 1/2 OF THE CWA...AND RESTRICTED
PROBABILITY OF THUNDER TO SLIGHT CHANCE AND THEN ONLY OVER NW
ZONES...AS STILL CANNOT RULE OUT CONVECTION FORMING OUTSIDE THE
CWA THEN MOVING IN.

TEMPERATURES LOWERED REFLECTING BLEND OF HRRR 2-METER TEMPERATURES
AND LAV GUIDANCE - WHICH IS NOT ALL THAT BAD. DID NOT GO AS WARM
AS THIS WOULD SUGGEST THOUGH OVER NW ZONES - GIVEN SUSPICION THAT
MARINE LAYER HOLDS ON. WILL HAVE BETTER IDEA WHICH WAY TO PLAY
NW/FAR W ZONES WITH NEXT UPDATE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
HAVE CONCERN THAT IF THE MARINE LAYER DOES NOT DISSIPATE/FRONT
LIFT TO THE N BY THIS EVENING - THAT THE MARINE LAYER WILL
MAINTAIN ITSELF OVER MOST IF NOT ALL THE AREA TONIGHT. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS - BUT COULD END UP MAKING SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO TONIGHTS FORECAST IF CURRENT TRENDS HOLD.

SCT-ISOLD SHOWERS AND TSTMS THIS EVENING. CONVECTION SHOULD BE
SCATTERED AT BEST WITH ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY IN PLACE. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THURSDAY AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACH THE
AREA.

HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAIN ISSUE FOR THE START OF THIS PERIOD IS THE INTERACTION OF THE
EASTWARD MOVING CENTRAL US TROUGH WITH SEVERAL NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND A PERSISTENT EASTERN CANADIAN TROUGH. THE
COMPLEX INTERACTION IS RESULTING IN TIMING AND AMPLIFICATION ISSUES
AS THIS TROUGH SLIDES TO THE EAST COAST. GFS CONTINUES TO BE SLOWER
THAN ALL THE GUIDANCE FRI INTO SAT AS THE UPPER LOW NEGATIVELY TILTS
AND CLOSES OFF AS IT APPROACHES THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS WOULD
RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF POST-FRONTAL RAIN INTO SAT. WITH
MAJORITY OF 00Z OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE TRENDING A BIT SLOWER...HAVE
ALSO TRENDED A BIT SLOWER WITH PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY TAPERING
OFF FRI AFTERNOON INTO FRI NIGHT. SUBSEQUENT MODEL TRENDS WILL
NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED TO SEE IF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM SLOWS
DOWN EVEN FURTHER.

AS FOR THE SENSIBLE WEATHER...COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES THE REGION
THU NIGHT INTO FRI. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BE FALLING TO
MARGINAL LEVELS THURSDAY NIGHT...WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE STREAMING AHEAD OF
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE ENERGY/COLD FRONT. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
DIMINISH INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH HEAVY RAIN THE MAIN THREAT
WITH PWATS ABOUT 2 STD ABOVE NORMAL AND STEERING FLOW NEARLY ALIGNED
WITH THE SLOW MOVING FRONT. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE EXTENT OF
INTERACTION OF THE FRONT WITH A SUBTROPICAL PLUME STREAMING UP THE
COAST THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH IF CLOSER TO THE COAST WOULD ENHANCE
THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT. CONVECTIVE THREAT SHOULD DECREASE IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...BUT POTENTIAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT COULD
PROLONG LIGHT TO MODERATE POST-FRONTAL STRATIFORM RAINS THROUGH
FRIDAY INTO FRI NIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS.
AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL SHOULD BE CLOSE TO AN INCH...WITH LOCALIZED
HIGHER AMOUNTS.

A DRYING NW FLOW SET UPS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT WITH STRONG COLD
ADVECTION. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO LINGER OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING.
AS A RESULT...HAVE GONE MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE DAY...SHOWING IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS AND VSBY GENERALLY
AROUND 17Z-21Z. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THIS
IMPROVEMENT...ESPECIALLY FOR CIGS...IS LOW. POTENTIAL FOR WINDS
TO STAY LIGHTER / MORE EASTERLY FOR A LONGER PERIOD THAN INDICATED
IN TAFS AS WELL.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON...GENERALLY AT KSWF AND PERHAPS KHPN. MARINE LAYER
LIKELY TO KEEP TS AWAY FROM TERMINALS FARTHER SE.

IT COULD BE ANOTHER TRICKY NIGHT FORECASTING VFR/IFR CONDITIONS.
LATEST GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT IFR OR LESS CONDITIONS AT THE
OUTLYING TERMINALS...HOWEVER GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON TIMING AND JUST
HOW LOW CIGS AND VSBYS GET. WILL HOLD OFF IN LOWERING CONDITIONS
TOO MUCH WITH LOW CONFIDENCE HOWEVER THIS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WILL BE
AT KGON.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE IN MUCH IMPROVEMENT AT
17Z...ESPECIALLY FOR CIGS. WINDS COULD STAY LIGHTER/MORE E FOR 1-2
HOURS LONGER THAN INDICATED IN TAF.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE IN MUCH IMPROVEMENT AT
17Z...ESPECIALLY FOR CIGS. WINDS COULD STAY LIGHTER/MORE E FOR 1-2
HOURS LONGER THAN INDICATED IN TAF.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE IN MUCH IMPROVEMENT AT
17Z...ESPECIALLY FOR CIGS. WINDS COULD STAY LIGHTER/MORE E FOR 1-2
HOURS LONGER THAN INDICATED IN TAF.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS YELLOW...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE IN MUCH IMPROVEMENT AT
17Z...ESPECIALLY FOR CIGS. WINDS COULD STAY LIGHTER FOR 1-2 HOURS
LONGER THAN INDICATED IN TAF.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE IN MUCH IMPROVEMENT AROUND
18-21Z...ESPECIALLY FOR CIGS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW POTENTIAL FOR CIGS/VSBY TO IMPROVE TO
MVFR OR HIGHER LEVELS AROUND 17-18Z. WIND SPEEDS MAY BE 1-2 HOURS
SLOWER TO INCREASE THAN SHOWN IN TAF.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...NUMEROUS SHRA AND TSTMS POSSIBLE. IFR POSSIBLE IN
FOG AND STRATUS.
.SATURDAY...RESIDUAL SHRA BEHIND A COLD FRONT WITH MVFR. BECOMING VFR
WITH NW WINDS INCREASING TO 20-30KT.
.SUNDAY...VFR WITH NW WINDS 20-25KT.

&&

.MARINE...
BASED ON HRRR AND LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS AND WEB-CAMS HAVE
EXTENDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL OCEAN ZONES...NY
HARBOR AND THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND THROUGH 22Z. GIVEN
NO RESTRICTIONS OF 1NM OR LESS IN VISIBILITY EVIDENT ON SOUND OR
EASTERN BAYS OF LONG ISLAND...HAVE CANCELLED THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY THERE.

SEAS ARE NOT INCREASING AS FAST AS FORECAST...SO HAVE ADJUSTED
DOWNWARD A FOOT OR SO ACROSS MOST OCEAN AREAS INTO THIS EVENING.

SEAS SLOWLY BUILD THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING N TO SCA LEVELS AND
REMAIN ABOVE SCA LEVELS THROUGH THURSDAY. SW FLOW INCREASES OVER THE
COASTAL OCEAN WATERS TONIGHT AS WELL WITH SFC BOUNDARY LIFTING TO
NEAR THE LONG ISLAND COAST IF NOT FARTHER N.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA WATERS LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY FALL BELOW MARGINAL SCA LEVELS
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH SCA SEAS ON THE OCEAN LIKELY REMAINING ABOVE
SCA CRITERIA THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH RESIDUAL SOUTHERLY
SWELLS. UNDERCUT WAVEWATCH BY A FOOT DURING THIS TIME AS IT WAS
SLOWER BRINGING THE FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS THOUGH
SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE SEAS DUE TO THE TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST
THE MODELS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS EVENING WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH THE BEST CHANCES NORTH/WEST OF NYC.
TOTAL BASIN AVG QPF FOR WED-THU COULD BE 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN TSTMS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATE
THU INTO FRIDAY MORNING...SHOULD PRODUCE AVERAGE BASIN
RAINFALL AMOUNTS CLOSE TO AN INCH...WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING OF THUNDERSTORMS WHICH COULD
RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING. ADDITIONAL LIGHTER RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
LIKELY FRIDAY...POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ338-345-
     350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...24/NV
NEAR TERM...24/MALOIT/NV
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...BC/PICCA
MARINE...24/MALOIT/NV
HYDROLOGY...24/NV

000
FXUS61 KBOX 221448
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1048 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED FRONT WILL MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TODAY. WARM
AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. COOLER AND
LESS HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

PER 10 AM OBSERVATIONS...WOULD PLACE THE STALLED FRONT NEAR THE
MA/NH BORDER AND EXTENDING ACROSS NORTHEAST MASS. UPPER FLOW IS
MOSTLY PARALLEL TO THIS FRONT WHICH WOULD SUGGEST LITTLE CHANGE IN
POSITION THIS AFTERNOON. IT/S POSSIBLE FOR THE FRONT TO DRIFT
MARGINALLY NORTH. WINDS AT JAFFREY ARE LIGHT SOUTHWEST...WHICH
ALSO SUGGESTS SOME DRIFT NORTH. TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS ARE DRIFTING
UP AT HARTFORD-SPRINGFIELD AND AT PROVIDENCE AND EXPECT THIS TO
CONTINUE.

SIGNS OF BREAKAGE IN THE CLOUD COVER UPSTREAM...SO THAT ALONG WITH
ADVECTION THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME SOLAR HEATING. LIGHT FLOW AT
SURFACE WILL SUPPORT SEABREEZE/ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE COAST WHICH
WOULD KEEP TEMPS LOWER NEAR THE COAST. SO WE HAVE HELD TEMP
FORECASTS CLOSE TO PREVIOUS.

AS FOR CONVECTION...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/THUNDER EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON. NOT MUCH JET DYNAMICS TO SUPPORT VENTING...BUT
FAVORABLE CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS IN PLAY. BEST AREAS FOR
DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE ALONG/WEST OF THE I-84/I-495 CORRIDOR. IF THE
FRONT LINGERS NEAR THE MASS BORDER THEN NH WOULD HAVE LESS OF A
CHANCE...BUT IF THE FRONT MOVES NORTH THEN NH WILL BE IN PLAY.

SPC HAS PLACED ALL OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN A SLIGHT RISK
AREA...SO STRONG WINDS/HAIL ARE POSSIBLE.

AS MENTIONED BEFORE...THE BEST ADVICE IS TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE
SKY AND LATER FORECASTS IF YOU WILL BE OUTDOORS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...MORE OF THE SAME TONIGHT. WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH
NORTH AS STRONGER SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SYNOPTIC FLOW DEVELOPS.
DECENT INSTABILITY PERSISTS THROUGH THE NIGHT. SO THINKING WE WILL
BE SEEING ANOTHER NIGHT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
THE GREATEST RISK OF THESE WILL BE ACROSS THE INTERIOR...AWAY FROM
THE STABILIZING INFLUENCE OF THE OCEAN.

THURSDAY...SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A
LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER VALLEY. THIS LOW HAS A RATHER AMPLIFIED UPPER SYSTEM...SO
ITS COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION.

EXPECTING MORE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
VERY HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE AS WELL...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES AROUND 1.7 INCHES. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WITH SOME SHOWERS...ALONG WITH SOME HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. MAY NOT
QUITE REACH SEVERE THRESHOLDS AS CLOUDS WILL BE MORE PREVALENT...
THUS TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE LOWER THAN WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
* COOLER AND LESS HUMID FOR THE WEEKEND

CONFIDENCE LEVEL/MODEL GUIDANCE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL
FORECAST. 00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN THE ELONGATED TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THERE IS STILL SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES ON WHEN THE SYSTEM WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST. REGARDLESS APPEARS THAT ELONGATED TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO
NEW ENGLAND EVENTUALLY BECOMING A CUTOFF LOW BY THE WEEKEND. THIS
LOW WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO THE MARITIMES BY THE BEGINNING OF
THE WORK WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT
PRECIP WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY AND COOLER TEMPS WILL DOMINATE THE
REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. LOW CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST AFTER TUES.

DETAILS...

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION EVENTUALLY PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW THE TIMING OF THE FRONT DOWN...SO
BELIEVE THAT IT MOVE THROUGH SOMETIME ON FRIDAY. BECAUSE OF THE
MODEL DIFFERENCE HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.
REGARDLESS...BELIEVE THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
THROUGH WITH TEMPS NEAR AVG. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY ACROSS REGIONS SOUTH OF THE I-84
CORRIDOR. MODELS INDICATE SOME INSTABILITY WITH ABOUT 25KTS OF
SHEAR. PWAT VALUES OF OVER 1.5 INCHES LEADS FORECASTER TO BELIEVE
THAT HEAVY DOWNPOURS IS THE MAIN THREAT...BUT WITH FALLING HEIGHTS
AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES...SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS IS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION. ANY CHANCE FOR STRONG STORMS TO DEVELOP WILL
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AS DIURNAL HEATING IS LOST.

WEEKEND...TRICKY FORECAST IS PLAYING OUT FOR THE WEEKEND. MODELS
HAVE INDICATED THAT THE ELONGATED TROUGH WILL CUT OFF OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC AND SLOWLY ROTATE OVER NEW ENGLAND FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR MUCH COOLER AIR...WELL BELOW AVG AND EVEN HAS
SLOWED DOWN THE TIMING OF PRECIP. BELIEVE THAT PRECIP MAY LINGER
INTO SAT...BUT HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIP WILL OCCUR ON
SUNDAY. FOR NOW HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE SLOW DOWN TREND IN THE
FORECAST. EXPECT HIGHS REACHING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S WITH
LOWS DROPPING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S. IF SKIES CLEAR OUT AS
THIS COLD POOL SITS OVER US...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED AS THE ENTIRE REGION IS
OFFICIALLY IN THE GROWING SEASON.

MONDAY AND BEYOND...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL HELP TEMPS REACH SEASONAL
CONDITIONS. APPEARS THAT THERE IS LIMITED MOISTURE KEEPING THE
FORECAST DRY...HOWEVER CANNOT RULE OUT A SPOT SHOWER OR TWO...ESP
IF SEA BREEZES DEVELOPS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

OVERVIEW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE OF
STRATUS AND FOG THROUGH THIS MORNING.

MIDDAY/THIS AFTERNOON...VSBYS IMPROVING AT MOST SPOTS EXCEPT
ACK...BUT IFR CIGS LINGERING LONGER THAN EXPECTED. CLOUDS UPSTREAM
ARE SHOWING BREAKAGE...SO WE SHOULD TREND TO LOSE THE CIGS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH HEATING ALLOWING THE CIGS TO LIFT TO VFR. HEATING
WILL GENERATE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH BEST CHANCES IN
CT AND NORTH/WEST OF BOSTON. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ALL
OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN A SLIGHT RISK AREA...SO STRONG WINDS
AND HAIL ARE POSSIBILITIES ESPECIALLY AFTER 2 PM THROUGH EVENING.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. EXPECT VARIABLE
CONDITIONS DEPENDING UPON SHOWER AND FOG DEVELOPMENT. BETTER SHOT
FOR IFR VSBYS IN FOG ALONG S COAST ON S-SW WINDS AND MILD TEMPS
MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION
THOUGH BEST SHOT ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS...WITH MVFR-IFR
CIGS/VSBYS. MAY SEE LOCAL HEAVY DOWNPOURS. LOW CONFIDENCE ON
TIMING AND PLACEMENT.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. VERY UNSETTLED PATTERN
AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. VARIABLE CONDITIONS BETWEEN VFR
AND MVFR/IFR IN SHRA/TSRA/PATCHY FOG. COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION THU NIGHT...SO WILL SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN
AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT THU NIGHT...THEN INTO CENTRAL SECTIONS AFTER
06Z-07Z. MAY SEE SW WIND GUSTING UP TO 20-25 KT DURING THE DAY AS
WELL. WINDS SHIFT TO W-NW ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING OF LOWER CONDITIONS AND CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF...MAINLY DUE TO TIMING
OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. COULD SEE BRIEF IFR IN A BAND OF
TSRA.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
ON SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENTS. VERY UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH
VARIABILITY BETWEEN VFR CONDITIONS AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN
SHRA/TSRA/FOG. IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TONIGHT.

INCREASING SW FLOW WILL RESULT IN SEAS BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHERN
COASTAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON
FOR SOME OF THE SOUTHERN WATERS...EXPANDING NORTH OVERNIGHT AND
THURSDAY. WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES.

EXPECT LOW VSBYS IN HEAVY SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG AT TIMES.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AS WELL...ESPECIALLY
NEAR SHORE.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO
CLEAR THE WATERS...SO EXPECT SW WINDS IN PLACE FOR A PORTION OF
THE DAY BEFORE SHIFTING TO W-NW ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS.

THE WEEKEND...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SEAS WILL REMAIN ABOVE SCA FOR
MOST OF THE WEEKEND ESP FOR THE OUTER WATERS. GUSTY NW BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL BRING GUSTS CLOSE TO GALE FORCE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT.
EXPECT BOTH SEAS AND WIND TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGHOUT THE DAY
ON SUNDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ255-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ235-254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ237.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB/BELK/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN

000
FXUS61 KALY 221447
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1047 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY
INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TOMORROW. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST INTO THURSDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG THIS FRONT ON THE COAST
FRIDAY...AS MUCH COLDER AIR POURS INTO THE REGION...AS THE WEATHER
MAY STAY UNSETTLED INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1045 AM EDT... A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS OVER ERN NY AND WRN
NEW ENGLAND...AS IT APPEARS IT WILL BEGIN TO LIFT TO THE N/NE INTO
THE EARLY PM...AS A SHORT-WAVE WITH SOME SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD
THUNDERSTORMS IS APPROACHING FROM WRN-CNTRL NY. THE POPS ARE
GRADUALLY INCREASED IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY PM.

STRATUS IS HANGING TOUGH THIS MORNING...AND SHOULD GRADUALLY ERODE
FROM SW TO NE. THE IS A BETTER AREA OF CLEARING OVER THE OH
VALLEY. THERE IS YET...ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE MOVING TOWARD WRN PA.
THIS DISTURBANCE MAY INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WX IN THE
LATE PM/EARLY EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER WRN NY

WE HAVE BACK OFF THE SVR WX WORDING UNTIL AFTER 3 PM IN THE HOURLY
GRIDS. THE SVR POTENTIAL WILL HINGE ON MORE SHEAR...AND LESSER
AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY. THE LATEST EXPERIMENTAL HRRR FROM THE SPC
MESOANALYSIS PAGE SHOWS 40-50 KTS OF BULK SHEAR IN THE 0-6 KM
LAYER FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH...AND AND 30-40 KTS TO THE
SOUTHEAST. INSTABILITY VALUES OFF THE 12Z NAM ARE GENERALLY
1000-1500 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER POCKETS OF SBCAPE. MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE IN THE 6-6.5 C/KM RANGE.

A NEW RUNNING OF THE LOCAL MAGLENTA SEVERE WEATHER INDEX SHOWS A
MINOR SEVERE EVENT WITH THE FOLLOWING VALUES PLUGGED IN:

CAPE=1000 K/KG
MAX SOUNDING WINDS=50 KTS
EHI=1.0
STORM SPEED= 35 KTS
0-3 KM SRH = 100 (M/S)^2

IF THE CAPE IS INCREASED TO 1500 J/KG...WE SHOW A MAJOR EVENT.

THE CONVECTIVE MODE WOULD INDICATE SOME MULTICELLS AND OR ISOLD
SUPERCELLS...POTENTIALLY CONGEALING INTO CLUSTERS AND LINES. THE
SATELLITE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED CAREFULLY.

OUR LOCAL WRF SHOWS A FEW CLUSTERS DEVELOPING IN THE 0-3 KM
COLUMNAR REF PRODUCT IN THE EARLY TO MID PM...AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT.
THE EXPERIMENTAL HRRR INDICATES LATE PM/EARLY PM.W

PWATS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN A FEW STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL
WITH VALUES OF 1.25-1.75 INCH RANGE...SO SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE.

OVERALL..THE SLIGHT RISK FOR OUR AREA LOOKS FINE...AND WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE NEAR TERM TRENDS. MAX TEMPS IN THE M70S TO
M80S LOOK FINE FOR NOW.

CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVNG HOURS AND DIM OVERNIGHT AS
FCA IS FIRMLY IN WARM SECTION. LOWS AND TD WILL BE IN THE
60S...AND AREAS OF PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THU AND THU NT 500HPA TROF STARTS MOVING E THROUGH GRTLKS AS SFC
LOW ORGANIZES ALONG SEMI-STALLED FRONT FROM FM LK ERIE UP ST
LAWRENCE VLY. THIS SYSTEM PUSHES SLOWLY EAST DRAGGING A CDFNT TO
BTV-SYR LINE THU AFTN...AND THROUGH FCA BY 12UTC FRI. NAM/GFS IN
PRETTY CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THIS TIMING. WHILE THERE IS INCRG
DYNAMICS WITH APPROACHING JET AND TROF...CAPES 1000-1500 ...CLOUDS
WILL BE WIDESPREAD HOLDING MAX TEMPS TO MID 70S TO AROUND 80. SPC HAS
ONLY PUT AREA IN SEE TEXT ATTM...WITH LOW PROBS DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY.
REGARDLESS AREA WILL SEE PERIOD OF -SHRA/TSTMS INCRG THU...TRANSITIONING
TO -SHRA/-RA BEHIND THE CDFNT OVERNIGHT.

BY FRI MORNING CDFNT WILL BE IN I-95 CORRIDOR ALONG THE ATLC
COAST. 500HPA TROF WILL BE MOVING INTO NE USA...AND BOTH MODELS
DEVELOP A MODEST SFC LOW OVER NJ. THE WARMTH OF PAST FEW DAYS
WILL GIVE WAY TO A COOL BREEZY WITH -SHRA FRI. FINALLY SFC LOW
MOVES OFFSHORE FRI NT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GRTLKS.
HWVR THE 500HPA TROF LINGERS AND CUTS OFF OVER NEW ENG SAT.
BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS A BRISK NW GRADIENT WILL DRIVE SOME
PRETTY COOL AIR INTO THE REGION FOR LATE MAY. WITH 500HPA CUT OFF
LINGERING SKIES MAY ONLY BE PS SAT IN GFS.

TEMPS WILL PROBABLY GO NOWHERE FRI...ONLY COMING OFF MORNING LOWS
A FEW DEG...OR HOLDING STEADY.

THE GFS/NAM ARE PROGRESSIVE WITH SFC LOW DEPARTING THE COAST FRI
NT...WITH ITS 500 HPA TROF CROSSING REGION SAT AND DEPARTING SAT
NT WITH PC SKIES AND A RATHER BRISK WIND GRADIENT.

THE 00UTC ECMWF CUTS OFF THE 500HPA LOW OVER NJ...DEVELOPS A
COASTAL LOW...WHICH LINGERS ALONG THE EAST COAST FOR THE WEEKEND
WITH PERIODS OF RAW CHILLY RAIN.

THE GFS TEMPS WOULD BRING MINS SAT MORNING INTO THE MID 30S TO
MID 40S WITH SOME NEAR 30 AND POTENTIAL FROST/FREEZE ISSUES IN
ADRNDKS. HIGHS SAT WILL ONLY REBOUND EVEN WITH THE STRONG SUN TO
THE 60S. LOWS SAT NIGHT WOULD AGAIN BE IN THE 30S. WINDS WILL
REMAIN BRISK. ECMWF WOULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY WARMER NIGHT TIME
TEMPS AND COOLER YET DAYTIME TEMPS IN MID 50S TO LOW 60S. HPC
LEANS TWRD A BLEND WITH CHC POPS LINGERING INTO SAT. IT WILL BE A
FALL LIKE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.

WILL LEAN TWRD GFS/HPC BLEND THROUGH SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE ECMWF KEEPS THE 500HPA CUTOFF OVER RGN AND SFC LOW NEAR NEW
ENGLAND COAST FOR A RAW CHILLY WEEKEND...FINALLY CLEARING ON
MONDAY. HWVR AT THIS TIME ITS TO BE CONSIDERED AN OUTLIER.

GFS/NAM/HPC PROGRESSIVELY MOVE THIS SYSTEM ALONG. 17 OF 20
MEMBERS OF THE GEFS ENSEMBLE KEEP IT DRY FROM FRI NIGHT ONWARD.
ONLY 3 HAVE ANY QPF. SO THE WORST CASE IN THE GFS IS SOME CLOUDS
FOR SUNDAY MRNG. OVERALL THE SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE GRTLKS
SHIFTING SLOWLY EAST TO FCA BY TUES. AT 500 HPA RIDGE BUILDS FROM
GRT PLAINS TO GRTLKS.

PERIOD WILL START OFF PARTLY CLOUDY W/BLO NORMAL TEMPS AND A BREEZE
CONTINUING SUNDAY. SCT FROST AND FREEZE WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
HIR TRRN. IN TIME THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO BRILLIANT SUNSHINE MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPS RETURNING TO NORMAL MONDAY AND
ABV BY TUESDAY AND WED.

WILL POPULATE WITH HPC MIDNIGHT SHIFT GUID.

THE GROWING SEASON IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...
GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...THE
MOHAWK VALLEY...EASTERN CATSKILLS...TACONICS...BERKSHIRES...BENNINGTON
AND EASTERN WINDHAM COUNTIES VT AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY. IT WILL
START ON MAY 25TH FOR THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN WINDHAM
COUNTY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOME LOW CLOUDS ARE AFFECTING MOST OF THE TAF SITE THIS
MORNING...WITH IFR SCATTERED VARIABLE BROKEN AT KALB...SOLID IFR
AT KPSF AND KGFL AND SOLID MVFR AT KPOU. SOME FOG IS OCCURRING AT
KPSF. THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD LIFT BTWN 13-15Z...LEAVING A
MIX OF CLOUDS ABOVE 3000 FEET AGL FOR THE REST OF THE DAY AT ALL
SITES.

THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE MUCH
OF TONIGHT...BUT DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE...JUST PUTTING VCSH
UNTIL REGIONS OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT CAN BE OBSERVED AND
MOVEMENT CAN BE TRACKED LATER TODAY.  WHEREVER THUNDERSTORMS
OCCUR...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR BUT AGAIN...SCATTERED
NATURE TO THUNDERSTORMS PREVENTING ACKNOWLEDGING IN TAFS FOR NOW.

WINDS SHOULD BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 KT OR LESS TODAY...
DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 10 KT TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
THU...MVFR WITH IFR POSSIBLE. -SHRA/-TSRA LIKELY.
THU NIGHT...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA/-TSRA ESPECIALLY IN THE EVNG.
FRI...MAINLY VFR. CHC -TSRA MAINLY IN THE AM.
SAT-SUN...VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH FRIDAY. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY.

RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...AND LOWER TO 45 TO 60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL MAINLY LESS THAN 10 MPH THROUGH TONIGHT...BECOMING
SOUTHWEST AROUND 10MPH THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
PWATS ON THE ORDER OF 1.5 TO 2.0 INCHES NEXT FEW DAYS. WHILE
WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN
THUNDERSTORMS AND TRAINING COULD RESULT IN SMALL STREAM AND URBAN
FLOODING OVERNIGHT AND AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. SIGNIFICANT WITHIN
BANK RISES ARE LIKELY IN LARGER RIVERS.

3-HR ZONAL FFG VALUES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 2.5-3.0 INCH RANGE AT
THIS TIME...WHICH ARE HIGH FOR MID TO LATE MAY.

DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
BASIN AVERAGE QPF WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE THIS WEEK. THE BEST
THREAT FOR SEEING SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL THIS AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER/WASULA
NEAR TERM...SNYDER/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...NAS/WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER

000
FXUS61 KALY 221200
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
800 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY INTO THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY THURSDAY. WARM HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
INTO THURSDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THURSDAY A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SLOWLY THROUGH NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND. LOW
PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG THIS FRONT ON THE COAST FRIDAY...AS MUCH
COLDER AIR POURS INTO THE REGION. FRIDAY NIGHT THE STORM WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR
THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. IT WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER WITH
UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TSTMS HAVE ENDED AND ONLY SCT -SHRA REMAIN MAINLY OVER S VT AND
BERKSHIRE COUNTY. SOME ISOLD -SHRA ARE ALONG THE S TIER. FOR THE
NEXT SVRL HOURS MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AND END.
CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF FCA WILL THIN WITH INCRG SUNSHINE FOR A FEW
HRS.

THE HOOSIC RIVER AND SOME SMALL STREAMS IN SOUTHERN VERMONT HAVE
REACHED BANK FULL AND MAY BRIEFLY EXCEED FLOOD THIS MORNING BEFORE
RECEDING. WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED TO COVER THESE
SITUATIONS.

AT SFC WMFNT IS N OF FCA. IT WILL MOVE TO ST LAWRENCE VLY TO
MICHIGAN LINE...AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG AND PROPAGATES UP
IT TODAY. THIS LEAVES FCA IN WARM SECTOR WITH ALOT OF RESIDUAL
LLVL MOISTURE/CLOUDS FM TUES CONVECTION

WITH TD IN 60S...TEMPS REBOUNDING TO 80S...VRBL CLOUDS THE THREAT
OF TSTMS INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY. LOCAL WRF/HRRR WHICH HANDLED
TODAYS EVENT WELL...SHOW A MAINLY CELLULAR AND PULSE RESPONSE
TODAY IN SIMULATED REFL. GFS PRODUCES SFC CAPES ON THE ORDER OF
1000-2000 J/KG THE NAM 2000-4000 J/KG WITH A DEFINE PREFERENCE
FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT S & E AND THE MHWK VLY.

NAM AND GFS SHOW H850-700 LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.5 THIS AFTN.

GOING TO HRRR FOR THE LATE AFTN:

POU/ALB/GFL
CAPE 2000/1812/1777
J/KG MAX WIND 33/33/40 EHI OF 1.6/1.5/1.2
STORM SPEED 24/18/18
SRH 175/156/106
MAGLENTA 1.75/2.17/2.44 ALL MAJOR SEVERE

WHICH IS CONSIDERABLY STRONGER LOOKING THAN HRRR REFL. THE NAM
MODEL SOUNDINGS AND WRF MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE CONSIDERABLY LOWER IN
CAPE AROUND 1000-1200 J/KG.

PWATS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN A FEW STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL
WITH VALUES OF 1.50-1.8 INCHES.

SOME OTHER CONSIDERATIONS LLVL JET AT H850 HPA IS 25-35KTS...AND
BULK OF IT MAY PASS WEST OF FCA. THERE IS LITTLE ADDITIONAL UPPER
FORCING.  SPC HAS OUTLOOKED NY PORTIONS OF FCA AT THIS POINT WILL
NOT TRY TO GET SPECIFIC...WILL GO WITH ENHANCED WORDING TODAY. IF
THERES A PREFERRED AREA IT WOULD MHWK VLY AND S...AND A PREFERRED
TIME OF LATER IN THE AFTN AND EVENING.

CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVNG HOURS AND DIM OVERNIGHT AS
FCA IS FIRMLY IN WARM SECTION. LOWS AND TD WILL BE IN THE
60S...AND AREAS OF PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THU AND THU NT 500HPA TROF STARTS MOVING E THROUGH GRTLKS AS SFC
LOW ORGANIZES ALONG SEMI-STALLED FRONT FROM FM LK ERIE UP ST
LAWRENCE VLY. THIS SYSTEM PUSHES SLOWLY EAST DRAGGING A CDFNT TO
BTV-SYR LINE THU AFTN...AND THROUGH FCA BY 12UTC FRI. NAM/GFS IN
PRETTY CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THIS TIMING. WHILE THERE IS INCRG
DYNAMICS WITH APPROACHING JET AND TROF...CAPES 1000-1500 ...CLOUDS
WILL BE WIDESPREAD HOLDING MAX TEMPS TO MID 70S TO AROUND 80. SPC HAS
ONLY PUT AREA IN SEE TEXT ATTM...WITH LOW PROBS DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY.
REGARDLESS AREA WILL SEE PERIOD OF -SHRA/TSTMS INCRG THU...TRANSITIONING
TO -SHRA/-RA BEHIND THE CDFNT OVERNIGHT.

BY FRI MORNING CDFNT WILL BE IN I-95 CORRIDOR ALONG THE ATLC
COAST. 500HPA TROF WILL BE MOVING INTO NE USA...AND BOTH MODELS
DEVELOP A MODEST SFC LOW OVER NJ. THE WARMTH OF PAST FEW DAYS
WILL GIVE WAY TO A COOL BREEZY WITH -SHRA FRI. FINALLY SFC LOW
MOVES OFFSHORE FRI NT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GRTLKS.
HWVR THE 500HPA TROF LINGERS AND CUTS OFF OVER NEW ENG SAT.
BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS A BRISK NW GRADIENT WILL DRIVE SOME
PRETTY COOL AIR INTO THE REGION FOR LATE MAY. WITH 500HPA CUT OFF
LINGERING SKIES MAY ONLY BE PS SAT IN GFS.

TEMPS WILL PROBABLY GO NOWHERE FRI...ONLY COMING OFF MORNING LOWS
A FEW DEG...OR HOLDING STEADY.

THE GFS/NAM ARE PROGRESSIVE WITH SFC LOW DEPARTING THE COAST FRI
NT...WITH ITS 500 HPA TROF CROSSING REGION SAT AND DEPARTING SAT
NT WITH PC SKIES AND A RATHER BRISK WIND GRADIENT.

THE 00UTC ECMWF CUTS OFF THE 500HPA LOW OVER NJ...DEVELOPS A
COASTAL LOW...WHICH LINGERS ALONG THE EAST COAST FOR THE WEEKEND
WITH PERIODS OF RAW CHILLY RAIN.

THE GFS TEMPS WOULD BRING MINS SAT MORNING INTO THE MID 30S TO
MID 40S WITH SOME NEAR 30 AND POTENTIAL FROST/FREEZE ISSUES IN
ADRNDKS. HIGHS SAT WILL ONLY REBOUND EVEN WITH THE STRONG SUN TO
THE 60S. LOWS SAT NIGHT WOULD AGAIN BE IN THE 30S. WINDS WILL
REMAIN BRISK. ECMWF WOULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY WARMER NIGHT TIME
TEMPS AND COOLER YET DAYTIME TEMPS IN MID 50S TO LOW 60S. HPC
LEANS TWRD A BLEND WITH CHC POPS LINGERING INTO SAT. IT WILL BE A
FALL LIKE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.

WILL LEAN TWRD GFS/HPC BLEND THROUGH SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE ECMWF KEEPS THE 500HPA CUTOFF OVER RGN AND SFC LOW NEAR NEW
ENGLAND COAST FOR A RAW CHILLY WEEKEND...FINALLY CLEARING ON
MONDAY. HWVR AT THIS TIME ITS TO BE CONSIDERED AN OUTLIER.

GFS/NAM/HPC PROGRESSIVELY MOVE THIS SYSTEM ALONG. 17 OF 20
MEMBERS OF THE GEFS ENSEMBLE KEEP IT DRY FROM FRI NIGHT ONWARD.
ONLY 3 HAVE ANY QPF. SO THE WORST CASE IN THE GFS IS SOME CLOUDS
FOR SUNDAY MRNG. OVERALL THE SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE GRTLKS
SHIFTING SLOWLY EAST TO FCA BY TUES. AT 500 HPA RIDGE BUILDS FROM
GRT PLAINS TO GRTLKS.

PERIOD WILL START OFF PARTLY CLOUDY W/BLO NORMAL TEMPS AND A BREEZE
CONTINUING SUNDAY. SCT FROST AND FREEZE WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
HIR TRRN. IN TIME THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO BRILLIANT SUNSHINE MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPS RETURNING TO NORMAL MONDAY AND
ABV BY TUESDAY AND WED.

WILL POPULATE WITH HPC MIDNIGHT SHIFT GUID.

THE GROWING SEASON IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...
GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...THE
MOHAWK VALLEY...EASTERN CATSKILLS...TACONICS...BERKSHIRES...BENNINGTON
AND EASTERN WINDHAM COUNTIES VT AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY. IT WILL
START ON MAY 25TH FOR THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN WINDHAM
COUNTY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOME LOW CLOUDS ARE AFFECTING MOST OF THE TAF SITE THIS
MORNING...WITH IFR SCATTERED VARIABLE BROKEN AT KALB...SOLID IFR
AT KPSF AND KGFL AND SOLID MVFR AT KPOU. SOME FOG IS OCCURRING AT
KPSF. THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD LIFT BTWN 13-15Z...LEAVING A
MIX OF CLOUDS ABOVE 3000 FEET AGL FOR THE REST OF THE DAY AT ALL
SITES.

THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE MUCH
OF TONIGHT...BUT DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE...JUST PUTTING VCSH
UNTIL REGIONS OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT CAN BE OBSERVED AND
MOVEMENT CAN BE TRACKED LATER TODAY.  WHEREVER THUNDERSTORMS
OCCUR...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR BUT AGAIN...SCATTERED
NATURE TO THUNDERSTORMS PREVENTING ACKNOWLEDGING IN TAFS FOR NOW.

WINDS SHOULD BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 KT OR LESS TODAY...
DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 10 KT TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
THU...MVFR WITH IFR POSSIBLE. -SHRA/-TSRA LIKELY.
THU NIGHT...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA/-TSRA ESPECIALLY IN THE EVNG.
FRI...MAINLY VFR. CHC -TSRA MAINLY IN THE AM.
SAT-SUN...VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH FRIDAY. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY.

RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...AND LOWER TO 45 TO 60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL MAINLY LESS THAN 10 MPH THROUGH TONIGHT...BECOMING
SOUTHWEST AROUND 10MPH THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
PWATS ON THE ORDER OF 1.5 TO 2.0 INCHES NEXT FEW DAYS. WHILE
WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN
THUNDERSTORMS AND TRAINING COULD RESULT IN SMALL STREAM AND URBAN
FLOODING OVERNIGHT AND AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. SIGNIFICANT WITHIN
BANK RISES ARE LIKELY IN LARGER RIVERS.

3-HR ZONAL FFG VALUES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 2.5-3.0 INCH RANGE AT
THIS TIME...WHICH ARE HIGH FOR MID TO LATE MAY.

DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
BASIN AVERAGE QPF WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE THIS WEEK. THE BEST
THREAT FOR SEEING SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL THIS AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...SNYDER
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...NAS/WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER

000
FXUS61 KOKX 221153
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
753 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED FRONT WILL MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TODAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL THEN SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST...THEN PASS THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD IN FOR THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ISOLATED TSTM CONTINUE TO SINK SE ACROSS LONG ISLAND ALONG AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER CONVECTION. EXPECTATION IS FOR THIS
ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO PUSH SE THROUGH 10 AM. OTHERWISE...PLENTY
OF CLOUDS AND FOG IN THE MORNING WHICH SHOULD GRADUALLY BURN OFF
THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT JUMPS NORTH OF THE
REGION. CAMS INDICATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS DEVELOPS WEST
OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...THEN MOVING EAST INTO THE REGION
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHWESTERN INTERIOR AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THURSDAY AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACH
THE AREA.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID 80S...EXCEPT ALONG THE COAST. WITH
HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAIN ISSUE FOR THE START OF THIS PERIOD IS THE INTERACTION OF THE
EASTWARD MOVING CENTRAL US TROUGH WITH SEVERAL NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND A PERSISTENT EASTERN CANADIAN TROUGH. THE
COMPLEX INTERACTION IS RESULTING IN TIMING AND AMPLIFICATION ISSUES
AS THIS TROUGH SLIDES TO THE EAST COAST. GFS CONTINUES TO BE SLOWER
THAN ALL THE GUIDANCE FRI INTO SAT AS THE UPPER LOW NEGATIVELY TILTS
AND CLOSES OFF AS IT APPROACHES THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS WOULD
RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF POST-FRONTAL RAIN INTO SAT. WITH
MAJORITY OF 00Z OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE TRENDING A BIT SLOWER...HAVE
ALSO TRENDED A BIT SLOWER WITH PCPN GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF FRI
AFTERNOON INTO FRI NIGHT. SUBSEQUENT MODEL TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE
CLOSELY MONITORED TO SEE IF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM SLOWS DOWN EVEN
FURTHER.

AS FOR THE SENSIBLE WEATHER...COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES THE REGION
THU NIGHT INTO FRI. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BE FALLING TO
MARGINAL LEVELS THURSDAY NIGHT...WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE STREAMING AHEAD OF
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE ENERGY/COLD FRONT. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
DIMINISH INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH HEAVY RAIN THE MAIN THREAT
WITH PWATS ABOUT 2 STD ABOVE NORMAL AND STEERING FLOW NEARLY ALIGNED
WITH THE SLOW MOVING FRONT. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE EXTENT OF
INTERACTION OF THE FRONT WITH A SUBTROPICAL PLUME STREAMING UP THE
COAST THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH IF CLOSER TO THE COAST WOULD ENHANCE
THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT. CONVECTIVE THREAT SHOULD DECREASE IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...BUT POTENTIAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT COULD
PROLONG LIGHT TO MODERATE POST-FRONTAL STRATIFORM RAINS THROUGH
FRIDAY INTO FRI NIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS.
AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL SHOULD BE CLOSE TO AN INCH...WITH LOCALIZED
HIGHER AMOUNTS.

A DRYING NW FLOW SET UPS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA TERMINALS WILL LIFT NORTH LATER THIS
MORNING.

MOST OF THE AREA TERMINALS ARE MVFR TO IFR...WITH SOME SUB-IFR IN
SPOTS. VERY DIFFICULT FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS CIGS VARYING
FROM 300 FT TO 1500 FT ACROSS THE AREA AND VARIABLE WINDS ANYWHERE
FROM 6KT TO 15 KT. ALL THIS COURTESY OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED
OVER THE AREA TERMINALS. MOST OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS INDICATE THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EITHER LIFTING NORTH BETWEEN 15Z-16Z. ONCE THIS
OCCURS...WE SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR AND WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY
AROUND 10-14KT. UNTIL THEN HOWEVER...EXPECT A LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 16Z TODAY...MAINLY
NORTH AND WEST OF THE NEW YORK TERMINALS...HOWEVER DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE OF TIMING AND PLACEMENT...HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TAFS.

IT COULD BE ANOTHER TRICKY NIGHT FORECASTING SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.
LATEST GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT IFR OR LESS CONDITIONS AT THE OUTLYING
TERMINALS...HOWEVER GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON TIMING AND JUST HOW LOW CIGS
AND VSBYS GET. WILL HOLD OFF IN LOWERING CONDITIONS TOO MUCH WITH
LOW CONFIDENCE HOWEVER THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE OF IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WILL BE AT KGON.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS EXPECTED THROUGH 15Z FOR CHANGING
FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN STRATUS AND/OR FOG. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF WINDS
SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH BETWEEN 14Z AND 16Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS EXPECTED THROUGH 15Z FOR CHANGING
FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN STRATUS AND/OR FOG. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF WINDS
SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH BETWEEN 14Z AND 16Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS EXPECTED THROUGH 15Z FOR CHANGING
FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN STRATUS AND/OR FOG. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF WINDS
SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH BETWEEN 14Z AND 16Z.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS YELLOW...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS EXPECTED THROUGH 15Z FOR CHANGING
FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN STRATUS AND/OR FOG. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF WINDS
SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH BETWEEN 14Z AND 16Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS EXPECTED THROUGH 15Z FOR CHANGING
FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN STRATUS AND/OR FOG. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF WINDS
SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH BETWEEN 14Z AND 16Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS EXPECTED THROUGH 15Z FOR CHANGING
FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN STRATUS AND/OR FOG. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF WINDS
SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH BETWEEN 14Z AND 16Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...NUMEROUS SHRA AND TSTMS POSSIBLE. IFR POSSIBLE IN
FOG AND STRATUS.
.SATURDAY...RESIDUAL SHRA BEHIND A COLD FRONT WITH MVFR. BECOMING VFR
WITH NW WINDS INCREASING TO 20-30KT.
.SUNDAY...VFR WITH NW WINDS 20-25KT.

&&

.MARINE...
DENSE FOG ACROSS THE WATERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING.
E/SE WINDS THIS MORNING SHOULD BECOME S-SW THIS AFTERNOON...AND
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS SLOWLY BUILD THIS AFTERNOON TO SCA
LEVELS AND REMAIN ABV SCA LEVELS THROUGH THURSDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA WATERS LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY FALL BELOW MARGINAL SCA LEVELS
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH SCA SEAS ON THE OCEAN LIKELY REMAINING ABOVE
SCA CRITERIA THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH RESIDUAL SOUTHERLY
SWELLS. UNDERCUT WAVEWATCH BY A FOOT DURING THIS TIME AS IT WAS
SLOWER BRINGING THE FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS THOUGH
SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE SEAS DUE TO THE TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST
THE MODELS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH THE BEST CHANCES NORTH/WEST OF NYC.
TOTAL BASIN AVG QPF FOR WED-THU COULD BE 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS IN TSTMS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATE
THU INTO FRIDAY MORNING...SHOULD PRODUCE AVERAGE BASIN
RAINFALL AMOUNTS CLOSE TO AN INCH...WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING OF THUNDERSTORMS WHICH COULD
RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING. ADDITIONAL LIGHTER RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
LIKELY FRIDAY...POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345-350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...

000
FXUS61 KBOX 221129
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
729 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED FRONT WILL MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TODAY. WARM
AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. COOLER AND
LESS HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

730 AM UPDATE...
CONVECTION IS FINALLY DYING DOWN AS IT ENTERS INTO ALREADY WORKED
OVER AIR. EXPECT PRECIP TO CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD AND
DISSIPATE. TEMPS ARE SLOW TO REBOUND THIS MORNING...BUT WITH
WINDS SOUTH OF THE PIKE ALREADY SWITCHING TO THE SW...EXPECT TEMPS
TO JUMP LATER THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE BULK OF THE FORECAST REMAINS
ON TRACK AS STRONG TO SEVERE WEATHER IS STILL ANTICIPATED ACROSS
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE REGION.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CONTINUING TO MONITOR WAVES OF CONVECTION THIS MORNING. LATEST
RUNS OF THE HRRR APPEAR TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THESE BANDS OF
CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH ITS TIMING WAS SLOW BY A FEW HOURS. LEANED
HEAVILY ON THE 05Z HRRR WITH THE APPROPRIATE TIMING ADJUSTMENT FOR
THE EARLY MORNING FORECAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
REASONABLY HOLDING TOGETHER IN A HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE ENVIRONMENT.

LATER TODAY...EXPECTING THE STALLED BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT TO MOVE
BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. THERE ARE STILL SOME QUESTIONS AS TO
HOW FAST THIS WILL HAPPEN. CURRENTLY THINKING THERE IS NOT ENOUGH
PUSH TO DRIVE IT COMPLETELY THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AS
SUCH...MAINTAINED COASTAL SEABREEZE FRONTS ALONG BOTH COASTS.

THIS HAS BIG RAMIFICATIONS FOR TEMPERATURES ALONG THE EAST COAST.
SHOULD THIS FRONT GET ENOUGH PUSH...CURRENT FORECAST TEMPERATURES
ARE LIKELY 5-10 DEGREES TOO LOW ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE. AM
MORE CONFIDENT WITH TEMPERATURES FARTHER INLAND. SHOULD THERE BE
MORE SUNSHINE THAT CURRENTLY THINKING...LIKELY TOO LOW FARTHER
INLAND AS WELL.

THINKING THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUDS THAN SUNSHINE TODAY OWING TO
LOTS OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM THE OVERNIGHT SHOWERS...AS WELL AS
NEW CONVECTIVE CLOUDS AS WE HEAD INTO THIS AFTERNOON.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATER TODAY. THERE IS
THE POSSIBILITY FOR MORE ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER. THE GREATEST
RISK SHOULD BE FARTHER WEST OF OUR REGION WHERE THE MORE FAVORABLE
COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SHOULD BE. THE BEST ADVICE IS
TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE SKY AND LATER FORECASTS IF YOU WILL BE
OUTDOORS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...MORE OF THE SAME TONIGHT. WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH
NORTH AS STRONGER SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SYNOPTIC FLOW DEVELOPS.
DECENT INSTABILITY PERSISTS THROUGH THE NIGHT. SO THINKING WE WILL
BE SEEING ANOTHER NIGHT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
THE GREATEST RISK OF THESE WILL BE ACROSS THE INTERIOR...AWAY FROM
THE STABILIZING INFLUENCE OF THE OCEAN.

THURSDAY...SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A
LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER VALLEY. THIS LOW HAS A RATHER AMPLIFIED UPPER SYSTEM...SO
ITS COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION.

EXPECTING MORE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
VERY HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE AS WELL...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES AROUND 1.7 INCHES. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WITH SOME SHOWERS...ALONG WITH SOME HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. MAY NOT
QUITE REACH SEVERE THRESHOLDS AS CLOUDS WILL BE MORE PREVALENT...
THUS TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE LOWER THAN WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
* COOLER AND LESS HUMID FOR THE WEEKEND

CONFIDENCE LEVEL/MODEL GUIDANCE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL
FORECAST. 00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN THE ELONGATED TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THERE IS STILL SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES ON WHEN THE SYSTEM WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST. REGARDLESS APPEARS THAT ELONGATED TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO
NEW ENGLAND EVENTUALLY BECOMING A CUTOFF LOW BY THE WEEKEND. THIS
LOW WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO THE MARITIMES BY THE BEGINNING OF
THE WORK WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT
PRECIP WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY AND COOLER TEMPS WILL DOMINATE THE
REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. LOW CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST AFTER TUES.

DETAILS...

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION EVENTUALLY PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW THE TIMING OF THE FRONT DOWN...SO
BELIEVE THAT IT MOVE THROUGH SOMETIME ON FRIDAY. BECAUSE OF THE
MODEL DIFFERENCE HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.
REGARDLESS...BELIEVE THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
THROUGH WITH TEMPS NEAR AVG. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY ACROSS REGIONS SOUTH OF THE I-84
CORRIDOR. MODELS INDICATE SOME INSTABILITY WITH ABOUT 25KTS OF
SHEAR. PWAT VALUES OF OVER 1.5 INCHES LEADS FORECASTER TO BELIEVE
THAT HEAVY DOWNPOURS IS THE MAIN THREAT...BUT WITH FALLING HEIGHTS
AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES...SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS IS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION. ANY CHANCE FOR STRONG STORMS TO DEVELOP WILL
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AS DIURNAL HEATING IS LOST.

WEEKEND...TRICKY FORECAST IS PLAYING OUT FOR THE WEEKEND. MODELS
HAVE INDICATED THAT THE ELONGATED TROUGH WILL CUT OFF OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC AND SLOWLY ROTATE OVER NEW ENGLAND FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR MUCH COOLER AIR...WELL BELOW AVG AND EVEN HAS
SLOWED DOWN THE TIMING OF PRECIP. BELIEVE THAT PRECIP MAY LINGER
INTO SAT...BUT HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIP WILL OCCUR ON
SUNDAY. FOR NOW HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE SLOW DOWN TREND IN THE
FORECAST. EXPECT HIGHS REACHING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S WITH
LOWS DROPPING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S. IF SKIES CLEAR OUT AS
THIS COLD POOL SITS OVER US...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED AS THE ENTIRE REGION IS
OFFICIALLY IN THE GROWING SEASON.

MONDAY AND BEYOND...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL HELP TEMPS REACH SEASONAL
CONDITIONS. APPEARS THAT THERE IS LIMITED MOISTURE KEEPING THE
FORECAST DRY...HOWEVER CANNOT RULE OUT A SPOT SHOWER OR TWO...ESP
IF SEA BREEZES DEVELOPS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

OVERVIEW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE OF
STRATUS AND FOG THROUGH THIS MORNING.

TODAY...EXPECT MVFR-LIFR CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR
14-16Z AS SW WINDS DEVELOP. IFR MAY PERSIST MOST OF THE DAY AT
KACK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD
THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY WEST OF KMHT-KORH-KIJD.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. EXPECT VARIABLE
CONDITIONS DEPENDING UPON SHOWER AND FOG DEVELOPMENT. BETTER SHOT
FOR IFR VSBYS IN FOG ALONG S COAST ON S-SW WINDS AND MILD TEMPS
MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION
THOUGH BEST SHOT ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS...WITH MVFR-IFR
CIGS/VSBYS. MAY SEE LOCAL HEAVY DOWNPOURS. LOW CONFIDENCE ON
TIMING AND PLACEMENT.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. VERY UNSETTLED PATTERN
AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. VARIABLE CONDITIONS BETWEEN VFR
AND MVFR/IFR IN SHRA/TSRA/PATCHY FOG. COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION THU NIGHT...SO WILL SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN
AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT THU NIGHT...THEN INTO CENTRAL SECTIONS AFTER
06Z-07Z. MAY SEE SW WIND GUSTING UP TO 20-25 KT DURING THE DAY AS
WELL. WINDS SHIFT TO W-NW ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING OF LOWER CONDITIONS AND CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF...MAINLY DUE TO TIMING
OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. COULD SEE BRIEF IFR IN A BAND OF
TSRA.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
ON SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENTS. VERY UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH
VARIABILITY BETWEEN VFR CONDITIONS AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN
SHRA/TSRA/FOG. IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TONIGHT.

WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
THROUGH TODAY. INCREASING SW FLOW WILL RESULT IN SEAS BUILDING
OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ISSUED FOR
LATER TODAY INTO THURSDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS WHERE CONFIDENCE IS
HIGHEST. WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
AS A LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. AS SUCH COULD SEE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EXPAND INTO MORE OF THE COASTAL WATERS AROUND
CAPE COD DUE TO 25 KT WIND GUSTS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT YET HIGH
ENOUGH TO ISSUE ADVISORIES FOR THOSE WATERS AT THIS TIME.

EXPECT LOW VSBYS IN HEAVY SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG AT TIMES.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AS WELL...ESPECIALLY
NEAR SHORE.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO
CLEAR THE WATERS...SO EXPECT SW WINDS IN PLACE FOR A PORTION OF
THE DAY BEFORE SHIFTING TO W-NW ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS.

THE WEEKEND...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SEAS WILL REMAIN ABOVE SCA FOR
MOST OF THE WEEKEND ESP FOR THE OUTER WATERS. GUSTY NW BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL BRING GUSTS CLOSE TO GALE FORCE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT.
EXPECT BOTH SEAS AND WIND TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGHOUT THE DAY
ON SUNDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ255-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ235-254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ237.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...BELK/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN

000
FXUS61 KALY 221027
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
627 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY INTO THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY THURSDAY. WARM HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
INTO THURSDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THURSDAY A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SLOWLY THROUGH NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND. LOW
PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG THIS FRONT ON THE COAST FRIDAY...AS MUCH
COLDER AIR POURS INTO THE REGION. FRIDAY NIGHT THE STORM WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR
THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. IT WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER WITH
UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TSTMS HAVE ENDED AND ONLY SCT -SHRA REMAIN MAINLY OVER S VT AND
BERKSHIRE COUNTY. SOME ISOLD -SHRA ARE ALONG THE S TIER. FOR THE
NEXT SVRL HOURS MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AND END.
CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF FCA WILL THIN WITH INCRG SUNSHINE FOR A FEW
HRS.

THE HOOSIC RIVER AND SOME SMALL STREAMS IN SOUTHERN VERMONT HAVE
REACHED BANKFUL AND MAY BRIEFLY EXCEED FLOOD THIS MORNING BEFORE
RECEDING. WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED TO COVER THESE
SITUATIONS.

AT SFC WMFNT IS N OF FCA. IT WILL MOVE TO ST LAWRENCE VLY TO
MICHIGAN LINE...AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG AND PROPAGATES UP
IT TODAY. THIS LEAVES FCA IN WARM SECTOR WITH ALOT OF RESIDUAL
LLVL MOISTURE/CLOUDS FM TUES CONVECTION

WITH TD IN 60S...TEMPS REBOUNDING TO 80S...VRBL CLOUDS THE THREAT
OF TSTMS INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY. LOCAL WRF/HRRR WHICH HANDLED
TODAYS EVENT WELL...SHOW A MAINLY CELLULAR AND PULSE RESPONSE
TODAY IN SIMULATED REFL. GFS PRODUCES SFC CAPES ON THE ORDER OF
1000-2000 J/KG THE NAM 2000-4000 J/KG WITH A DEFINE PREFERENCE
FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT S & E AND THE MHWK VLY.

NAM AND GFS SHOW H850-700 LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.5 THIS AFTN.

GOING TO HRRR FOR THE LATE AFTN:

POU/ALB/GFL
CAPE 2000/1812/1777
J/KG MAX WIND 33/33/40 EHI OF 1.6/1.5/1.2
STORM SPEED 24/18/18
SRH 175/156/106
MAGLENTA 1.75/2.17/2.44 ALL MAJOR SEVERE

WHICH IS CONSIDERABLY STRONGER LOOKING THAN HRRR REFL. THE NAM
MODEL SOUNDINGS AND WRF MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE CONSIDERABLY LOWER IN
CAPE AROUND 1000-1200 J/KG.

PWATS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN A FEW STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL
WITH VALUES OF 1.50-1.8 INCHES.

SOME OTHER CONSIDERATIONS LLVL JET AT H850 HPA IS 25-35KTS...AND
BULK OF IT MAY PASS WEST OF FCA. THERE IS LITTLE ADDITIONAL UPPER
FORCING.  SPC HAS OUTLOOKED NY PORTIONS OF FCA AT THIS POINT WILL
NOT TRY TO GET SPECIFIC...WILL GO WITH ENHANCED WORDING TODAY. IF
THERES A PREFERRED AREA IT WOULD MHWK VLY AND S...AND A PREFERRED
TIME OF LATER IN THE AFTN AND EVENING.

CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVNG HOURS AND DIM OVERNIGHT AS
FCA IS FIRMLY IN WARM SECTION. LOWS AND TD WILL BE IN THE
60S...AND AREAS OF PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THU AND THU NT 500HPA TROF STARTS MOVING E THROUGH GRTLKS AS SFC
LOW ORGANIZES ALONG SEMI-STALLED FRONT FROM FM LK ERIE UP ST
LAWRENCE VLY. THIS SYSTEM PUSHES SLOWLY EAST DRAGGING A CDFNT TO
BTV-SYR LINE THU AFTN...AND THROUGH FCA BY 12UTC FRI. NAM/GFS IN
PRETTY CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THIS TIMING. WHILE THERE IS INCRG
DYNAMICS WITH APPROACHING JET AND TROF...CAPES 1000-1500 ...CLOUDS
WILL BE WIDESPREAD HOLDING MAX TEMPS TO MID 70S TO AROUND 80. SPC HAS
ONLY PUT AREA IN SEE TEXT ATTM...WITH LOW PROBS DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY.
REGARDLESS AREA WILL SEE PERIOD OF -SHRA/TSTMS INCRG THU...TRANSITIONING
TO -SHRA/-RA BEHIND THE CDFNT OVERNIGHT.

BY FRI MORNING CDFNT WILL BE IN I-95 CORRIDOR ALONG THE ATLC
COAST. 500HPA TROF WILL BE MOVING INTO NE USA...AND BOTH MODELS
DEVELOP A MODEST SFC LOW OVER NJ. THE WARMTH OF PAST FEW DAYS
WILL GIVE WAY TO A COOL BREEZY WITH -SHRA FRI. FINALLY SFC LOW
MOVES OFFSHORE FRI NT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GRTLKS.
HWVR THE 500HPA TROF LINGERS AND CUTS OFF OVER NEW ENG SAT.
BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS A BRISK NW GRADIENT WILL DRIVE SOME
PRETTY COOL AIR INTO THE REGION FOR LATE MAY. WITH 500HPA CUT OFF
LINGERING SKIES MAY ONLY BE PS SAT IN GFS.

TEMPS WILL PROBABLY GO NOWHERE FRI...ONLY COMING OFF MORNING LOWS
A FEW DEG...OR HOLDING STEADY.

THE GFS/NAM ARE PROGRESSIVE WITH SFC LOW DEPARTING THE COAST FRI
NT...WITH ITS 500 HPA TROF CROSSING REGION SAT AND DEPARTING SAT
NT WITH PC SKIES AND A RATHER BRISK WIND GRADIENT.

THE 00UTC ECMWF CUTS OFF THE 500HPA LOW OVER NJ...DEVELOPS A
COASTAL LOW...WHICH LINGERS ALONG THE EAST COAST FOR THE WEEKEND
WITH PERIODS OF RAW CHILLY RAIN.

THE GFS TEMPS WOULD BRING MINS SAT MORNING INTO THE MID 30S TO
MID 40S WITH SOME NEAR 30 AND POTENTIAL FROST/FREEZE ISSUES IN
ADRNDKS. HIGHS SAT WILL ONLY REBOUND EVEN WITH THE STRONG SUN TO
THE 60S. LOWS SAT NIGHT WOULD AGAIN BE IN THE 30S. WINDS WILL
REMAIN BRISK. ECMWF WOULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY WARMER NIGHT TIME
TEMPS AND COOLER YET DAYTIME TEMPS IN MID 50S TO LOW 60S. HPC
LEANS TWRD A BLEND WITH CHC POPS LINGERING INTO SAT. IT WILL BE A
FALL LIKE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.

WILL LEAN TWRD GFS/HPC BLEND THROUGH SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE ECMWF KEEPS THE 500HPA CUTOFF OVER RGN AND SFC LOW NEAR NEW
ENGLAND COAST FOR A RAW CHILLY WEEKEND...FINALLY CLEARING ON
MONDAY. HWVR AT THIS TIME ITS TO BE CONSIDERED AN OUTLIER.

GFS/NAM/HPC PROGRESSIVELY MOVE THIS SYSTEM ALONG. 17 OF 20
MEMBERS OF THE GEFS ENSEMBLE KEEP IT DRY FROM FRI NIGHT ONWARD.
ONLY 3 HAVE ANY QPF. SO THE WORST CASE IN THE GFS IS SOME CLOUDS
FOR SUNDAY MRNG. OVERALL THE SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE GRTLKS
SHIFTING SLOWLY EAST TO FCA BY TUES. AT 500 HPA RIDGE BUILDS FROM
GRT PLAINS TO GRTLKS.

PERIOD WILL START OFF PARTLY CLOUDY W/BLO NORMAL TEMPS AND A BREEZE
CONTINUING SUNDAY. SCT FROST AND FREEZE WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
HIR TRRN. IN TIME THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO BRILLIANT SUNSHINE MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPS RETURNING TO NORMAL MONDAY AND
ABV BY TUESDAY AND WED.

WILL POPULATE WITH HPC MIDNIGHT SHIFT GUID.

THE GROWING SEASON IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...
GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...THE
MOHAWK VALLEY...EASTERN CATSKILLS...TACONICS...BERKSHIRES...BENNINGTON
AND EASTERN WINDHAM COUNTIES VT AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY. IT WILL
START ON MAY 25TH FOR THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN WINDHAM
COUNTY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ACCOUNTING FOR CURRENT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT SHOULD
CONTINUE AT KGFL THROUGH ABOUT 06Z...AT KALB THROUGH ABOUT
07Z-08Z...AND KPSF THROUGH ABOUT 08Z.  SOME MVFR AND OCCASIONAL IFR
CONDITIONS IN THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  SOME OTHER ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WELL WEST OF THE AREA COULD APPROACH THE AREA BETWEEN
KALB AND KPOU THROUGH SUNRISE...BUT WITH CONTINUED STABILIZATION OF
THE ATMOSPHERE THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD DISSIPATE BY THEN.

ONCE THE RAIN ENDS EARLY THIS MORNING...THERE COULD BE PERIODS OF
MVFR FOG AND VFR CEILINGS...BUT SCATTERED CLOUDS COULD DEVELOP BELOW
1000 FEET. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ANY BETTER CLEARING TOWARD
SUNRISE THAT COULD RESULT IN IFR FOG AND/OR CEILINGS BELOW 1000
FEET.  FOR NOW NOT INDICATING ANY IFR CONDITIONS AT ANY TAF SITES
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...BUT WILL AMEND IF CONDITIONS AND
TRENDS CHANGE.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY AFTER 12Z
UNTIL NEW CONVECTION DEVELOPS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MIXED SIGNALS ABOUT WHERE THE CONCENTRATION OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
LATER TODAY SO PUTTING VCSH IN ALL TAFS AFTER 22Z...BUT MORE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED SCATTERED ACROSS THE REGION LATE
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT SOUTH THROUGH SUNRISE...THEN BECOME VARIABLE
AT LESS THAN 10 KT THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW...MAINLY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT AGAIN TOMORROW EVENING. WINDS COULD
BE QUITE GUSTY IN THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
WED...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA/-TSRA ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTN.
WED NIGHT...VFR/MVFR. AT KGFL AND KALB -SHRA/-TSRA LIKELY. AT KPSF
AND KPOU CHC -SHRA/-TSRA.
THU...MVFR WITH IFR POSSIBLE. -SHRA/-TSRA LIKELY.
THU NIGHT...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA/-TSRA ESPECIALLY IN THE EVNG.
FRI...MAINLY VFR. CHC -TSRA MAINLY IN THE AM.
SAT-SUN...VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH FRIDAY. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY.

RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...AND LOWER TO 45 TO 60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL MAINLY LESS THAN 10 MPH THROUGH TONIGHT...BECOMING
SOUTHWEST AROUND 10MPH THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
PWATS ON THE ORDER OF 1.5 TO 2.0 INCHES NEXT FEW DAYS. WHILE
WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN
THUNDERSTORMS AND TRAINING COULD RESULT IN SMALL STREAM AND URBAN
FLOODING OVERNIGHT AND AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. SIGNIFICANT WITHIN
BANK RISES ARE LIKELY IN LARGER RIVERS.

3-HR ZONAL FFG VALUES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 2.5-3.0 INCH RANGE AT
THIS TIME...WHICH ARE HIGH FOR MID TO LATE MAY.

DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
BASIN AVERAGE QPF WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE THIS WEEK. THE BEST
THREAT FOR SEEING SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL THIS AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...SNYDER
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER

000
FXUS61 KALY 220950
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
550 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY INTO THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY THURSDAY. WARM HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
INTO THURSDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THURSDAY A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SLOWLY THROUGH NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND. LOW
PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG THIS FRONT ON THE COAST FRIDAY...AS MUCH
COLDER AIR POURS INTO THE REGION. FRIDAY NIGHT THE STORM WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR
THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. IT WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER WITH
UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TSTMS HAVE ENDED AND ONLY SCT -SHRA REMAIN MAINLY OVER S VT AND
BERKSHIRE COUNTY. SOME ISOLD -SHRA ARE ALONG THE S TIER. FOR THE
NEXT SVRL HOURS MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AND END.
CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF FCA WILL THIN WITH INCRG SUNSHINE FOR A FEW
HRS.

THE HOOSIC RIVER AND SOME SMALL STREAMS IN SOUTHERN VERMONT HAVE
REACHED BANKFUL AND MAY BRIEFLY EXCEED FLOOD THIS MORNING BEFORE
RECEDING. WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED TO COVER THESE
SITUATIONS.

AT SFC WMFNT IS N OF FCA. IT WILL MOVE TO ST LAWRENCE VLY TO
MICHIGAN LINE...AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG AND PROPAGATES UP
IT TODAY. THIS LEAVES FCA IN WARM SECTOR WITH ALOT OF RESIDUAL
LLVL MOISTURE/CLOUDS FM TUES CONVECTION

WITH TD IN 60S...TEMPS REBOUNDING TO 80S...VRBL CLOUDS THE THREAT
OF TSTMS INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY. LOCAL WRF/HRRR WHICH HANDLED
TODAYS EVENT WELL...SHOW A MAINLY CELLULAR AND PULSE RESPONSE
TODAY IN SIMULATED REFL. GFS PRODUCES SFC CAPES ON THE ORDER OF
1000-2000 J/KG THE NAM 2000-4000 J/KG WITH A DEFINE PREFERENCE
FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT S & E AND THE MHWK VLY.

NAM AND GFS SHOW H850-700 LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.5 THIS AFTN.

GOING TO HRRR FOR THE LATE AFTN:

POU/ALB/GFL
CAPE 2000/1812/1777
J/KG MAX WIND 33/33/40 EHI OF 1.6/1.5/1.2
STORM SPEED 24/18/18
SRH 175/156/106
MAGLENTA 1.75/2.17/2.44 ALL MAJOR SEVERE

WHICH IS CONSIDERABLY STRONGER LOOKING THAN HRRR REFL. THE NAM
MODEL SOUNDINGS AND WRF MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE CONSIDERABLY LOWER IN
CAPE AROUND 1000-1200 J/KG.

PWATS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN A FEW STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL
WITH VALUES OF 1.50-1.8 INCHES.

SOME OTHER CONSIDERATIONS LLVL JET AT H850 HPA IS 25-35KTS...AND
BULK OF IT MAY PASS WEST OF FCA. THERE IS LITTLE ADDITIONAL UPPER
FORCING.  SPC HAS OUTLOOKED NY PORTIONS OF FCA AT THIS POINT WILL
NOT TRY TO GET SPECIFIC...WILL GO WITH ENHANCED WORDING TODAY. IF
THERES A PREFERRED AREA IT WOULD MHWK VLY AND S...AND A PREFERRED
TIME OF LATER IN THE AFTN AND EVENING.

CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVNG HOURS AND DIM OVERNIGHT AS
FCA IS FIRMLY IN WARM SECTION. LOWS AND TD WILL BE IN THE
60S...AND AREAS OF PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THU AND THU NT 500HPA TROF STARTS MOVING E THROUGH GRTLKS AS SFC
LOW ORGANIZES ALONG SEMI-STALLED FRONT FROM FM LK ERIE UP ST
LAWRENCE VLY. THIS SYSTEM PUSHES SLOWLY EAST DRAGGING A CDFNT TO
BTV-SYR LINE THU AFTN...AND THROUGH FCA BY 12UTC FRI. NAM/GFS IN
PRETTY CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THIS TIMING. WHILE THERE IS INCRG
DYNAMICS WITH APPROACHING JET AND TROF...CAPES 1000-1500 ...CLOUDS
WILL BE WIDESPREAD HOLDING MAX TEMPS TO MID 70S TO AROUND 80. SPC HAS
ONLY PUT AREA IN SEE TEXT ATTM...WITH LOW PROBS DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY.
REGARDLESS AREA WILL SEE PERIOD OF -SHRA/TSTMS INCRG THU...TRANSITIONING
TO -SHRA/-RA BEHIND THE CDFNT OVERNIGHT.

BY FRI MORNING CDFNT WILL BE IN I-95 CORRIDOR ALONG THE ATLC
COAST. 500HPA TROF WILL BE MOVING INTO NE USA...AND BOTH MODELS
DEVELOP A MODEST SFC LOW OVER NJ. THE WARMTH OF PAST FEW DAYS
WILL GIVE WAY TO A COOL BREEZY WITH -SHRA FRI. FINALLY SFC LOW
MOVES OFFSHORE FRI NT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GRTLKS.
HWVR THE 500HPA TROF LINGERS AND CUTS OFF OVER NEW ENG SAT.
BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS A BRISK NW GRADIENT WILL DRIVE SOME
PRETTY COOL AIR INTO THE REGION FOR LATE MAY. WITH 500HPA CUT OFF
LINGERING SKIES MAY ONLY BE PS SAT IN GFS.

TEMPS WILL PROBABLY GO NOWHERE FRI...ONLY COMING OFF MORNING LOWS
A FEW DEG...OR HOLDING STEADY.

THE GFS/NAM ARE PROGRESSIVE WITH SFC LOW DEPARTING THE COAST FRI
NT...WITH ITS 500 HPA TROF CROSSING REGION SAT AND DEPARTING SAT
NT WITH PC SKIES AND A RATHER BRISK WIND GRADIENT.

THE 00UTC ECMWF CUTS OFF THE 500HPA LOW OVER NJ...DEVELOPS A
COASTAL LOW...WHICH LINGERS ALONG THE EAST COAST FOR THE WEEKEND
WITH PERIODS OF RAW CHILLY RAIN.

THE GFS TEMPS WOULD BRING MINS SAT MORNING INTO THE MID 30S TO
MID 40S WITH SOME NEAR 30 AND POTENTIAL FROST/FREEZE ISSUES IN
ADRNDKS. HIGHS SAT WILL ONLY REBOUND EVEN WITH THE STRONG SUN TO
THE 60S. LOWS SAT NIGHT WOULD AGAIN BE IN THE 30S. WINDS WILL
REMAIN BRISK. ECMWF WOULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY WARMER NIGHT TIME
TEMPS AND COOLER YET DAYTIME TEMPS IN MID 50S TO LOW 60S. HPC
LEANS TWRD A BLEND WITH CHC POPS LINGERING INTO SAT. IT WILL BE A
FALL LIKE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.

WILL LEAN TWRD GFS/HPC BLEND THROUGH SAT.

&&


.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE ECMWF KEEPS THE 500HPA CUTOFF OVER RGN AND SFC LOW NEAR NEW
ENGLAND COAST FOR A RAW CHILLY WEEKEND...FINALLY CLEARING ON
MONDAY. HWVR AT THIS TIME ITS TO BE CONSIDERED AN OUTLIER.

GFS/NAM/HPC PROGRESSIVELY MOVE THIS SYSTEM ALONG. 17 OF 20
MEMBERS OF THE GEFS ENSEMBLE KEEP IT DRY FROM FRI NIGHT ONWARD.
ONLY 3 HAVE ANY QPF. SO THE WORST CASE IN THE GFS IS SOME CLOUDS
FOR SUNDAY MRNG. OVERALL THE SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE GRTLKS
SHIFTING SLOWLY EAST TO FCA BY TUES. AT 500 HPA RIDGE BUILDS FROM
GRT PLAINS TO GRTLKS.

PERIOD WILL START OFF PARTLY CLOUDY W/BLO NORMAL TEMPS AND A BREEZE
CONTINUING SUNDAY. SCT FROST AND FREEZE WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
HIR TRRN. IN TIME THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO BRILLIANT SUNSHINE MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPS RETURNING TO NORMAL MONDAY AND
ABV BY TUESDAY AND WED.

WILL POPULATE WITH HPC MIDNIGHT SHIFT GUID.

THE GROWING SEASON IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...
GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...THE
MOHAWK VALLEY...EASTERN CATSKILLS...TACONICS...BERKSHIRES...BENNINGTON
AND EASTERN WINDHAM COUNTIES VT AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY. IT WILL
START ON MAY 25TH FOR THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN WINDHAM
COUNTY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ACCOUNTING FOR CURRENT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT SHOULD
CONTINUE AT KGFL THROUGH ABOUT 06Z...AT KALB THROUGH ABOUT
07Z-08Z...AND KPSF THROUGH ABOUT 08Z.  SOME MVFR AND OCCASIONAL IFR
CONDITIONS IN THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  SOME OTHER ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WELL WEST OF THE AREA COULD APPROACH THE AREA BETWEEN
KALB AND KPOU THROUGH SUNRISE...BUT WITH CONTINUED STABILIZATION OF
THE ATMOSPHERE THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD DISSIPATE BY THEN.

ONCE THE RAIN ENDS EARLY THIS MORNING...THERE COULD BE PERIODS OF
MVFR FOG AND VFR CEILINGS...BUT SCATTERED CLOUDS COULD DEVELOP BELOW
1000 FEET. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ANY BETTER CLEARING TOWARD
SUNRISE THAT COULD RESULT IN IFR FOG AND/OR CEILINGS BELOW 1000
FEET.  FOR NOW NOT INDICATING ANY IFR CONDITIONS AT ANY TAF SITES
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...BUT WILL AMEND IF CONDITIONS AND
TRENDS CHANGE.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY AFTER 12Z
UNTIL NEW CONVECTION DEVELOPS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MIXED SIGNALS ABOUT WHERE THE CONCENTRATION OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
LATER TODAY SO PUTTING VCSH IN ALL TAFS AFTER 22Z...BUT MORE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED SCATTERED ACROSS THE REGION LATE
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT SOUTH THROUGH SUNRISE...THEN BECOME VARIABLE
AT LESS THAN 10 KT THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW...MAINLY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT AGAIN TOMORROW EVENING. WINDS COULD
BE QUITE GUSTY IN THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
WED...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA/-TSRA ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTN.
WED NIGHT...VFR/MVFR. AT KGFL AND KALB -SHRA/-TSRA LIKELY. AT KPSF
AND KPOU CHC -SHRA/-TSRA.
THU...MVFR WITH IFR POSSIBLE. -SHRA/-TSRA LIKELY.
THU NIGHT...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA/-TSRA ESPECIALLY IN THE EVNG.
FRI...MAINLY VFR. CHC -TSRA MAINLY IN THE AM.
SAT-SUN...VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH FRIDAY. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY.

RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...AND LOWER TO 45 TO 60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL MAINLY LESS THAN 10 MPH THROUGH TONIGHT...BECOMING
SOUTHWEST AROUND 10MPH THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
PWATS ON THE ORDER OF 1.5 TO 2.0 INCHES NEXT FEW DAYS. WHILE
WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN
THUNDERSTORMS AND TRAINING COULD RESULT IN SMALL STREAM AND URBAN
FLOODING OVERNIGHT AND AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. SIGNIFICANT WITHIN
BANK RISES ARE LIKELY IN LARGER RIVERS.

3-HR ZONAL FFG VALUES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 2.5-3.0 INCH RANGE AT
THIS TIME...WHICH ARE HIGH FOR MID TO LATE MAY.

DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
BASIN AVERAGE QPF WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE THIS WEEK. THE BEST
THREAT FOR SEEING SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL THIS AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...SNYDER
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER

000
FXUS61 KOKX 220902
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
502 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED FRONT WILL MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TODAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL THEN SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST...THEN PASS THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD IN FOR THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CONTINUING TO MONITOR AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT EARLY THIS MORNING. CONVECTION APPEARS
OUTFLOW-DOMINATED WHICH SUGGESTS EVENTUAL WEAKENING.
OTHERWISE...SIMILAR DAY ON TAP TODAY WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND FOG
IN THE MORNING AND CHANCE POP FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
SHOWERS AND TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONVECTION SHOULD
BE SCATTERED AT BEST WITH ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY IN PLACE.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACH THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT WITH ACTIVITY CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID 80S...EXCEPT ALONG THE COAST. WITH
HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAIN ISSUE FOR THE START OF THIS PERIOD IS THE INTERACTION OF THE
EASTWARD MOVING CENTRAL US TROUGH WITH SEVERAL NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND A PERSISTENT EASTERN CANADIAN TROUGH. THE
COMPLEX INTERACTION IS RESULTING IN TIMING AND AMPLIFICATION ISSUES
AS THIS TROUGH SLIDES TO THE EAST COAST. GFS CONTINUES TO BE SLOWER
THAN ALL THE GUIDANCE FRI INTO SAT AS THE UPPER LOW NEGATIVELY TILTS
AND CLOSES OFF AS IT APPROACHES THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS WOULD
RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF POST-FRONTAL RAIN INTO SAT. WITH
MAJORITY OF 00Z OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE TRENDING A BIT SLOWER...HAVE
ALSO TRENDED A BIT SLOWER WITH PCPN GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF FRI
AFTERNOON INTO FRI NIGHT. SUBSEQUENT MODEL TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE
CLOSELY MONITORED TO SEE IF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM SLOWS DOWN EVEN
FURTHER.

AS FOR THE SENSIBLE WEATHER...COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES THE REGION
THU NIGHT INTO FRI. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BE FALLING TO
MARGINAL LEVELS THURSDAY NIGHT...WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE STREAMING AHEAD OF
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE ENERGY/COLD FRONT. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
DIMINISH INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH HEAVY RAIN THE MAIN THREAT
WITH PWATS ABOUT 2 STD ABOVE NORMAL AND STEERING FLOW NEARLY ALIGNED
WITH THE SLOW MOVING FRONT. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE EXTENT OF
INTERACTION OF THE FRONT WITH A SUBTROPICAL PLUME STREAMING UP THE
COAST THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH IF CLOSER TO THE COAST WOULD ENHANCE
THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT. CONVECTIVE THREAT SHOULD DECREASE IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...BUT POTENTIAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT COULD
PROLONG LIGHT TO MODERATE POST-FRONTAL STRATIFORM RAINS THROUGH
FRIDAY INTO FRI NIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS.
AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL SHOULD BE CLOSE TO AN INCH...WITH LOCALIZED
HIGHER AMOUNTS.

A DRYING NW FLOW SET UPS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TERMINALS EARLY
THIS MORNING...THEN LIFT TO THE NORTH LATER THIS MORNING.

AS THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH...CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES ARE LOWERING TO IFR AND COULD FALL AS LOW AS VLIFR AT
THE COASTAL TERMINALS ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 10Z AND 12Z. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...MAINLY BETWEEN 13Z TO 15Z. WIND
WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT THEN INCREASE TO 10
TO 15 KT DURING WEDNESDAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 16Z MAINLY NORTH
AND WEST OF THE NEW YORK TERMINALS...HOWEVER DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE
OF TIMING AND PLACEMENT...HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TAFS.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS EXPECTED THROUGH 15Z FOR CHANGING
FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN STRATUS AND/OR FOG.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS EXPECTED THROUGH 15Z FOR CHANGING
FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN STRATUS AND/OR FOG.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS EXPECTED THROUGH 15Z FOR CHANGING
FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN STRATUS AND/OR FOG.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS YELLOW...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS EXPECTED THROUGH 15Z FOR CHANGING
FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN STRATUS AND/OR FOG.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS EXPECTED THROUGH 15Z FOR CHANGING
FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN STRATUS AND/OR FOG.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS EXPECTED THROUGH 15Z FOR CHANGING
FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN STRATUS AND/OR FOG.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SCT SHRA AND TSTMS POSSIBLE. IFR POSSIBLE IN FOG
AND STRATUS.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...NUMEROUS SHRA AND TSTMS POSSIBLE. IFR POSSIBLE IN
FOG AND STRATUS.
.SATURDAY...RESIDUAL SHRA BEHIND A COLD FRONT WITH MVFR. BECOMING VFR
WITH NW WINDS INCREASING TO 20-30KT.
.SUNDAY...VFR WITH NW WINDS 20-25KT.

&&

.MARINE...
DENSE FOG ACROSS THE WATERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING.
SHALLOW BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING SE-E WINDS TODAY TO THE
ERN-MOST OCEAN WATERS...ALSO LONG ISLAND SOUND AND THE BAYS OF
LONG ISLAND. OTHERWISE...S-SW SUB SCA WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS SLOWLY BUILD THIS AFTERNOON TO SCA
LEVELS AND REMAIN ABV SCA LEVELS THROUGH THURSDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA WATERS LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY FALL BELOW MARGINAL SCA LEVELS
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH SCA SEAS ON THE OCEAN LIKELY REMAINING ABOVE
SCA CRITERIA THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH RESIDUAL SOUTHERLY
SWELLS. UNDERCUT WAVEWATCH BY A FOOT DURING THIS TIME AS IT WAS
SLOWER BRINGING THE FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS THOUGH
SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE SEAS DUE TO THE TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST
THE MODELS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH THE BEST CHANCES NORTH/WEST OF NYC.
TOTAL BASIN AVG QPF FOR WED-THU COULD BE 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS IN TSTMS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATE
THU INTO FRIDAY MORNING...SHOULD PRODUCE AVERAGE BASIN
RAINFALL AMOUNTS CLOSE TO AN INCH...WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING OF THUNDERSTORMS WHICH COULD
RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING. ADDITIONAL LIGHTER RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
LIKELY FRIDAY...POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ330-335-
     340-345-350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

000
FXUS61 KBOX 220811
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
411 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED FRONT WILL MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TODAY. WARM
AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. COOLER AND
LESS HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
4 AM UPDATE...

CONTINUING TO MONITOR WAVES OF CONVECTION THIS MORNING. LATEST
RUNS OF THE HRRR APPEAR TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THESE BANDS OF
CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH ITS TIMING WAS SLOW BY A FEW HOURS. LEANED
HEAVILY ON THE 05Z HRRR WITH THE APPROPRIATE TIMING ADJUSTMENT
FOR THE EARLY MORNING FORECAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
REASONABLY HOLDING TOGETHER IN A HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE ENVIRONMENT.

LATER TODAY...EXPECTING THE STALLED BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT TO MOVE
BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. THERE ARE STILL SOME QUESTIONS AS TO
HOW FAST THIS WILL HAPPEN. CURRENTLY THINKING THERE IS NOT ENOUGH
PUSH TO DRIVE IT COMPLETELY THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AS
SUCH...MAINTAINED COASTAL SEABREEZE FRONTS ALONG BOTH COASTS.

THIS HAS BIG RAMIFICATIONS FOR TEMPERATURES ALONG THE EAST COAST.
SHOULD THIS FRONT GET ENOUGH PUSH...CURRENT FORECAST TEMPERATURES
ARE LIKELY 5-10 DEGREES TOO LOW ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE. AM
MORE CONFIDENT WITH TEMPERATURES FARTHER INLAND. SHOULD THERE BE
MORE SUNSHINE THAT CURRENTLY THINKING...LIKELY TOO LOW FARTHER
INLAND AS WELL.

THINKING THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUDS THAN SUNSHINE TODAY OWING TO
LOTS OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM THE OVERNIGHT SHOWERS...AS WELL AS
NEW CONVECTIVE CLOUDS AS WE HEAD INTO THIS AFTERNOON.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATER TODAY. THERE IS
THE POSSIBILITY FOR MORE ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER. THE GREATEST
RISK SHOULD BE FARTHER WEST OF OUR REGION WHERE THE MORE FAVORABLE
COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SHOULD BE. THE BEST ADVICE IS
TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE SKY AND LATER FORECASTS IF YOU WILL BE
OUTDOORS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...MORE OF THE SAME TONIGHT. WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH
NORTH AS STRONGER SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SYNOPTIC FLOW DEVELOPS.
DECENT INSTABILITY PERSISTS THROUGH THE NIGHT. SO THINKING WE WILL
BE SEEING ANOTHER NIGHT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
THE GREATEST RISK OF THESE WILL BE ACROSS THE INTERIOR...AWAY FROM
THE STABILIZING INFLUENCE OF THE OCEAN.

THURSDAY...SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A
LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER VALLEY. THIS LOW HAS A RATHER AMPLIFIED UPPER SYSTEM...SO
ITS COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION.

EXPECTING MORE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
VERY HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE AS WELL...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES AROUND 1.7 INCHES. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WITH SOME SHOWERS...ALONG WITH SOME HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. MAY NOT
QUITE REACH SEVERE THRESHOLDS AS CLOUDS WILL BE MORE PREVALENT...
THUS TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE LOWER THAN WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
* COOLER AND LESS HUMID FOR THE WEEKEND

CONFIDENCE LEVEL/MODEL GUIDANCE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL
FORECAST. 00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN THE ELONGATED TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THERE IS STILL SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES ON WHEN THE SYSTEM WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST. REGARDLESS APPEARS THAT ELONGATED TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO
NEW ENGLAND EVENTUALLY BECOMING A CUTOFF LOW BY THE WEEKEND. THIS
LOW WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO THE MARITIMES BY THE BEGINNING OF
THE WORK WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT
PRECIP WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY AND COOLER TEMPS WILL DOMINATE THE
REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. LOW CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST AFTER TUES.

DETAILS...

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION EVENTUALLY PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW THE TIMING OF THE FRONT DOWN...SO
BELIEVE THAT IT MOVE THROUGH SOMETIME ON FRIDAY. BECAUSE OF THE
MODEL DIFFERENCE HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.
REGARDLESS...BELIEVE THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
THROUGH WITH TEMPS NEAR AVG. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY ACROSS REGIONS SOUTH OF THE I-84
CORRIDOR. MODELS INDICATE SOME INSTABILITY WITH ABOUT 25KTS OF
SHEAR. PWAT VALUES OF OVER 1.5 INCHES LEADS FORECASTER TO BELIEVE
THAT HEAVY DOWNPOURS IS THE MAIN THREAT...BUT WITH FALLING HEIGHTS
AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES...SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS IS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION. ANY CHANCE FOR STRONG STORMS TO DEVELOP WILL
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AS DIURNAL HEATING IS LOST.

WEEKEND...TRICKY FORECAST IS PLAYING OUT FOR THE WEEKEND. MODELS
HAVE INDICATED THAT THE ELONGATED TROUGH WILL CUT OFF OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC AND SLOWLY ROTATE OVER NEW ENGLAND FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR MUCH COOLER AIR...WELL BELOW AVG AND EVEN HAS
SLOWED DOWN THE TIMING OF PRECIP. BELIEVE THAT PRECIP MAY LINGER
INTO SAT...BUT HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIP WILL OCCUR ON
SUNDAY. FOR NOW HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE SLOW DOWN TREND IN THE
FORECAST. EXPECT HIGHS REACHING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S WITH
LOWS DROPPING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S. IF SKIES CLEAR OUT AS
THIS COLD POOL SITS OVER US...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED AS THE ENTIRE REGION IS
OFFICIALLY IN THE GROWING SEASON.

MONDAY AND BEYOND...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL HELP TEMPS REACH SEASONAL
CONDITIONS. APPEARS THAT THERE IS LIMITED MOISTURE KEEPING THE
FORECAST DRY...HOWEVER CANNOT RULE OUT A SPOT SHOWER OR TWO...ESP
IF SEA BREEZES DEVELOPS.


&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

OVERVIEW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE OF
STRATUS AND FOG THROUGH THIS MORNING.

THROUGH 12Z...EXPECTING BANDS OF STRONG ENOUGH CONVECTION TO
AVOID. THESE BANDS OF CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT
MOVES EAST. MIXED CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD IFR
ACROSS THE MA COASTAL PLAIN AND MUCH OF RI AND NORTHERN
CT...IMPROVING TO POCKETS OF MVFR ACROSS THE INTERIOR. EVEN SOME
LOCALIZED VFR POSSIBLE.

TODAY...EXPECT MVFR-LIFR CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR
14-16Z AS SW WINDS DEVELOP. IFR MAY PERSIST MOST OF THE DAY AT
KACK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD
THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY WEST OF KMHT-KORH-KIJD.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. EXPECT VARIABLE
CONDITIONS DEPENDING UPON SHOWER AND FOG DEVELOPMENT. BETTER SHOT
FOR IFR VSBYS IN FOG ALONG S COAST ON S-SW WINDS AND MILD TEMPS
MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION
THOUGH BEST SHOT ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS...WITH MVFR-IFR
CIGS/VSBYS. MAY SEE LOCAL HEAVY DOWNPOURS. LOW CONFIDENCE ON
TIMING AND PLACEMENT.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. VERY UNSETTLED PATTERN
AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. VARIABLE CONDITIONS BETWEEN VFR
AND MVFR/IFR IN SHRA/TSRA/PATCHY FOG. COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION THU NIGHT...SO WILL SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN
AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT THU NIGHT...THEN INTO CENTRAL SECTIONS AFTER
06Z-07Z. MAY SEE SW WIND GUSTING UP TO 20-25 KT DURING THE DAY AS
WELL. WINDS SHIFT TO W-NW ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING OF LOWER CONDITIONS AND CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF...MAINLY DUE TO TIMING
OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. COULD SEE BRIEF IFR IN A BAND OF
TSRA. APPEARS THIS BAND WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE TERMINAL
THROUGH 0830Z.  WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
ON SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENTS. VERY UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH
VARIABILITY BETWEEN VFR CONDITIONS AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN
SHRA/TSRA/FOG. IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TONIGHT.

WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
THROUGH TODAY. INCREASING SW FLOW WILL RESULT IN SEAS BUILDING
OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ISSUED FOR
LATER TODAY INTO THURSDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS WHERE CONFIDENCE IS
HIGHEST. WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
AS A LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. AS SUCH COULD SEE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EXPAND INTO MORE OF THE COASTAL WATERS AROUND
CAPE COD DUE TO 25 KT WIND GUSTS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT YET HIGH
ENOUGH TO ISSUE ADVISORIES FOR THOSE WATERS AT THIS TIME.

EXPECT LOW VSBYS IN HEAVY SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG AT TIMES.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AS WELL...ESPECIALLY
NEAR SHORE.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO
CLEAR THE WATERS...SO EXPECT SW WINDS IN PLACE FOR A PORTION OF
THE DAY BEFORE SHIFTING TO W-NW ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS.

THE WEEKEND...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SEAS WILL REMAIN ABOVE SCA FOR
MOST OF THE WEEKEND ESP FOR THE OUTER WATERS. GUSTY NW BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL BRING GUSTS CLOSE TO GALE FORCE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT.
EXPECT BOTH SEAS AND WIND TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGHOUT THE DAY
ON SUNDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ255-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ235-254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ237.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN

000
FXUS61 KALY 220721
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
321 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY INTO THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY THURSDAY. WARM HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
INTO THURSDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THURSDAY A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SLOWLY THROUGH NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND. LOW
PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG THIS FRONT ON THE COAST FRIDAY...AS MUCH
COLDER AIR POURS INTO THE REGION. FRIDAY NIGHT THE STORM WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR
THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. IT WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER WITH
UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF I-88 CORRIDOR MOVING THROUGH FCA
ATTM. MAINLY HEAVY RAIN AND FREQ LIGHTNING. AREAS OF MODERATE RAIN
EXTEND BEHIND IT.

MOST AREAS TO BE IMPACTED WILL SEE ANOTHER 0.5 TO 1.O INCH OF RAIN
BRINGING TOTALS FOR TODAY UP TO 2-3 INCHES IN MOST AREAS IMPACTED
WITH SOME ISOLD 4 INCH AMOUNTS. AREAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED FROM MHWK VLY AND ADJACENT AREAS INTO S VT/BERKSHIRE COUNTY
FOR OVERNIGHT TO COVER ANY SMALL STREAM AND URBAN FLOODING.

THIS LINE SHOULD EXIT MOST OF UPSTATE NY/VT AND W MA NEXT 1.5 TO
2 HRS...EXCEPT CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON VLY WHERE IT IS JUST
ARRIVING IN AREAS THAT HAVE NOT HAD MUCH PCPN AT ALL OR SINCE
SINCE LATE TUES AFTN. IT SHOULD THEN DIMINISH AND END OVERNIGHT

AT SFC WMFNT IS LIFTING NE THROUGH FCA OVERNIGHT AND WILL BE ALONG
N TIER OR N OF RGN WED MRNG. IT WILL MOVE TO ST LAWRENCE VLY TO
MICHIGAN LINE...AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG AND PROPAGATES UP
IT TODAY. THIS LEAVES FCA IN WARM SECTOR WITH ALOT OF RESIDUAL
LLVL MOISTURE/CLOUDS FM TUES CONVECTION

WITH TD IN 60S...TEMPS REBOUNDING TO 80S...VRBL CLOUDS THE THREAT
OF TSTMS INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY. LOCAL WRF/HRRR WHICH HANDLED
TODAYS EVENT WELL...SHOW A MAINLY CELLULAR AND PULSE RESPONSE
TODAY IN SIMULATED REFL. GFS PRODUCES SFC CAPES ON THE ORDER OF
1000-2000 J/KG THE NAM 2000-4000 J/KG WITH A DEFINE PREFERENCE
FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT S & E AND THE MHWK VLY.

NAM AND GFS SHOW H850-700 LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.5 THIS AFTN.

GOING TO HRRR FOR THE LATE AFTN:

POU/ALB/GFL
CAPE 2000/1812/1777
J/KG MAX WIND 33/33/40 EHI OF 1.6/1.5/1.2
STORM SPEED 24/18/18
SRH 175/156/106
MAGLENTA 1.75/2.17/2.44 ALL MAJOR SEVERE

WHICH IS CONSIDERABLY STRONGER LOOKING THAN HRRR REFL. THE NAM
MODEL SOUNDINGS AND WRF MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE CONSIDERABLY LOWER IN
CAPE AROUND 1000-1200 J/KG.

PWATS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN A FEW STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL
WITH VALUES OF 1.50-1.8 INCHES.

SOME OTHER CONSIDERATIONS LLVL JET AT H850 HPA IS 25-35KTS...AND
BULK OF IT MAY PASS WEST OF FCA. THERE IS LITTLE ADDITIONAL UPPER
FORCING.  SPC HAS OUTLOOKED NY PORTIONS OF FCA AT THIS POINT WILL
NOT TRY TO GET SPECIFIC...WILL GO WITH ENHANCED WORDING TODAY. IF
THERES A PREFERRED AREA IT WOULD MHWK VLY AND S...AND A PREFERRED
TIME OF LATER IN THE AFTN AND EVENING.

CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVNG HOURS AND DIM OVERNIGHT AS
FCA IS FIRMLY IN WARM SECTION. LOWS AND TD WILL BE IN THE
60S...AND AREAS OF PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THU AND THU NT 500HPA TROF STARTS MOVING E THROUGH GRTLKS AS SFC
LOW ORGANIZES ALONG SEMI-STALLED FRONT FROM FM LK ERIE UP ST
LAWRENCE VLY. THIS SYSTEM PUSHES SLOWLY EAST DRAGGING A CDFNT TO
BTV-SYR LINE THU AFTN...AND THROUGH FCA BY 12UTC FRI. NAM/GFS IN
PRETTY CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THIS TIMING. WHILE THERE IS INCRG
DYNAMICS WITH APPROACHING JET AND TROF...CAPES 1000-1500 ...CLOUDS
WILL BE WIDESPREAD HOLDING MAX TEMPS TO MID 70S TO AROUND 80. SPC HAS
ONLY PUT AREA IN SEE TEXT ATTM...WITH LOW PROBS DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY.
REGARDLESS AREA WILL SEE PERIOD OF -SHRA/TSTMS INCRG THU...TRANSITIONING
TO -SHRA/-RA BEHIND THE CDFNT OVERNIGHT.

BY FRI MORNING CDFNT WILL BE IN I-95 CORRIDOR ALONG THE ATLC
COAST. 500HPA TROF WILL BE MOVING INTO NE USA...AND BOTH MODELS
DEVELOP A MODEST SFC LOW OVER NJ. THE WARMTH OF PAST FEW DAYS
WILL GIVE WAY TO A COOL BREEZY WITH -SHRA FRI. FINALLY SFC LOW
MOVES OFFSHORE FRI NT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GRTLKS.
HWVR THE 500HPA TROF LINGERS AND CUTS OFF OVER NEW ENG SAT.
BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS A BRISK NW GRADIENT WILL DRIVE SOME
PRETTY COOL AIR INTO THE REGION FOR LATE MAY. WITH 500HPA CUT OFF
LINGERING SKIES MAY ONLY BE PS SAT IN GFS.

TEMPS WILL PROBABLY GO NOWHERE FRI...ONLY COMING OFF MORNING LOWS
A FEW DEG...OR HOLDING STEADY.

THE WEEKEND FCST IS DETERIORATING...
THE GFS IS PROGRESSIVE WITH SFC LOW DEPARTING THE COAST FRI
NT...WITH ITS 500 HPA TROF CROSSING REGION SAT AND DEPARTING SAT
NT WITH PC SKIES AND A RATHER BRISK WIND GRADIENT.

THE 00UTC ECMWF CUTS OFF THE 500HPA LOW OVER NJ...DEVELOPS A
COASTAL LOW...WHICH LINGERS ALONG THE EAST COAST FOR THE WEEKEND
WITH PERIODS OF RAW CHILLY RAIN.

THE GFS TEMPS WOULD BRING MINS SAT MORNING INTO THE MID 30S TO
MID 40S WITH SOME NEAR 30 AND POTENTIAL FROST/FREEZE ISSUES IN
ADRNDKS. HIGHS SAT WILL ONLY REBOUND EVEN WITH THE STRONG SUN TO
THE 60S. LOWS SAT NIGHT WOULD AGAIN BE IN THE 30S. WINDS WILL
REMAIN BRISK. ECMWF WOULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY WARMER NIGHT TIME
TEMPS AND COOLER YET DAYTIME TEMPS IN MID 50S TO LOW 60S. HPC
LEANS TWRD A BLEND WITH CHC POPS LINGERING INTO SAT. IT WILL BE A
FALL LIKE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.

WILL LEAN TWRD GFS/HPC BLEND THROUGH SAT. ATTM WILL MAKE NO
CHANGES BEYOND SAT NT TO MINIMIZE FLIP FLOPPING GIVEN THE SPREAD
IN MODELS SOLUTIONS ATTM.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY. THE HIGH
WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION AND OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO
THE EAST WITH NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY.

THE GROWING SEASON IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...
GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...THE MOHAWK
VALLEY...EASTERN CATSKILLS...TACONICS...BERKSHIRES...BENNINGTON AND
EASTERN WINDHAM COUNTIES VT AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY. IT WILL START ON
MAY 25TH FOR THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN WINDHAM COUNTY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ACCOUNTING FOR CURRENT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT SHOULD
CONTINUE AT KGFL THROUGH ABOUT 06Z...AT KALB THROUGH ABOUT
07Z-08Z...AND KPSF THROUGH ABOUT 08Z.  SOME MVFR AND OCCASIONAL IFR
CONDITIONS IN THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  SOME OTHER ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WELL WEST OF THE AREA COULD APPROACH THE AREA BETWEEN
KALB AND KPOU THROUGH SUNRISE...BUT WITH CONTINUED STABILIZATION OF
THE ATMOSPHERE THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD DISSIPATE BY THEN.

ONCE THE RAIN ENDS EARLY THIS MORNING...THERE COULD BE PERIODS OF
MVFR FOG AND VFR CEILINGS...BUT SCATTERED CLOUDS COULD DEVELOP BELOW
1000 FEET. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ANY BETTER CLEARING TOWARD
SUNRISE THAT COULD RESULT IN IFR FOG AND/OR CEILINGS BELOW 1000
FEET.  FOR NOW NOT INDICATING ANY IFR CONDITIONS AT ANY TAF SITES
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...BUT WILL AMEND IF CONDITIONS AND
TRENDS CHANGE.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY AFTER 12Z
UNTIL NEW CONVECTION DEVELOPS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MIXED SIGNALS ABOUT WHERE THE CONCENTRATION OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
LATER TODAY SO PUTTING VCSH IN ALL TAFS AFTER 22Z...BUT MORE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED SCATTERED ACROSS THE REGION LATE
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT SOUTH THROUGH SUNRISE...THEN BECOME VARIABLE
AT LESS THAN 10 KT THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW...MAINLY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT AGAIN TOMORROW EVENING. WINDS COULD
BE QUITE GUSTY IN THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
WED...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA/-TSRA ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTN.
WED NIGHT...VFR/MVFR. AT KGFL AND KALB -SHRA/-TSRA LIKELY. AT KPSF
AND KPOU CHC -SHRA/-TSRA.
THU...MVFR WITH IFR POSSIBLE. -SHRA/-TSRA LIKELY.
THU NIGHT...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA/-TSRA ESPECIALLY IN THE EVNG.
FRI...MAINLY VFR. CHC -TSRA MAINLY IN THE AM.
SAT-SUN...VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH FRIDAY. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY.

RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...AND LOWER TO 45 TO 60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL MAINLY LESS THAN 10 MPH THROUGH TONIGHT...BECOMING
SOUTHWEST AROUND 10MPH THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
PWATS ON THE ORDER OF 1.5 TO 2.0 INCHES NEXT FEW DAYS. WHILE
WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN
THUNDERSTORMS AND TRAINING COULD RESULT IN SMALL STREAM AND URBAN
FLOODING OVERNIGHT AND AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. SIGNIFICANT WITHIN
BANK RISES ARE LIKELY IN LARGER RIVERS.

3-HR ZONAL FFG VALUES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 2.5-3.0 INCH RANGE AT
THIS TIME...WHICH ARE HIGH FOR MID TO LATE MAY.

DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
BASIN AVERAGE QPF WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE THIS WEEK. THE BEST
THREAT FOR SEEING SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL THIS AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...SNYDER
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER

000
FXUS61 KBOX 220641
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
241 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED FRONT WILL MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TODAY. WARM
AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. COOLER AND
LESS HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
2 AM UPDATE...

CONTINUING TO MONITOR WAVES OF CONVECTION THIS MORNING. LATEST
RUNS OF THE HRRR APPEAR TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THESE BANDS OF
CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH ITS TIMING WAS SLOW BY A FEW HOURS. LEANED
HEAVILY ON THE HRRR WITH THE APPROPRIATE TIMING ADJUSTMENT FOR THE
EARLY MORNING FORECAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE REASONABLY
HOLDING TOGETHER IN A HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE ENVIRONMENT.

LATER TODAY...EXPECTING THE STALLED BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT TO MOVE
BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. THERE ARE STILL SOME QUESTIONS AS TO
HOW FAST THIS WILL HAPPEN. CURRENTLY THINKING THERE IS NOT ENOUGH
PUSH TO DRIVE IT COMPLETELY THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AS
SUCH...MAINTAINED COASTAL SEABREEZE FRONTS ALONG BOTH COASTS.

THIS HAS BIG RAMIFICATIONS FOR TEMPERATURES ALONG THE EAST COAST.
SHOULD THIS FRONT GET ENOUGH PUSH...CURRENT FORECAST TEMPERATURES
ARE LIKELY 5-10 DEGREES TOO LOW ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE. AM
MORE CONFIDENT WITH TEMPERATURES FARTHER INLAND. SHOULD THERE BE
MORE SUNSHINE THAT CURRENTLY THINKING...LIKELY TOO LOW FARTHER
INLAND AS WELL.

THINKING THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUDS THAN SUNSHINE TODAY OWING TO
LOTS OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM THE OVERNIGHT SHOWERS...AS WELL AS
NEW CONVECTIVE CLOUDS AS WE HEAD INTO THIS AFTERNOON.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATER TODAY. THERE IS
THE POSSIBILITY FOR MORE ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER. THE GREATEST
RISK SHOULD BE FARTHER WEST OF OUR REGION WHERE THE MORE FAVORABLE
COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SHOULD BE. THE BEST ADVICE IS
TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE SKY AND LATER FORECASTS IF YOU WILL BE
OUTDOORS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...MORE OF THE SAME TONIGHT. WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH
NORTH AS STRONGER SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SYNOPTIC FLOW DEVELOPS.
DECENT INSTABILITY PERSISTS THROUGH THE NIGHT. SO THINKING WE WILL
BE SEEING ANOTHER NIGHT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
THE GREATEST RISK OF THESE WILL BE ACROSS THE INTERIOR...AWAY FROM
THE STABILIZING INFLUENCE OF THE OCEAN.

THURSDAY...SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A
LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER VALLEY. THIS LOW HAS A RATHER AMPLIFIED UPPER SYSTEM...SO
ITS COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION.

EXPECTING MORE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
VERY HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE AS WELL...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES AROUND 1.7 INCHES. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WITH SOME SHOWERS...ALONG WITH SOME HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. MAY NOT
QUITE REACH SEVERE THRESHOLDS AS CLOUDS WILL BE MORE PREVALENT...
THUS TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE LOWER THAN WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
* COOLER AND LESS HUMID FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
  WEEK

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

MEDIUM RANGE OPERATIONAL MODEL SUITE SIGNALING AN AMPLIFIED...
SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ACROSS THE LOWER 48. AT THE START...
NOTING LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN
LAKES THOUGH SOME DIFFERENCES IN POSITIONING...ALONG WITH H5
CUTOFF LOW MOVING INTO THE WEST COAST. LOWER THAN AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
OPERATIONAL SUITE...THOUGH GENERAL SURFACE SYSTEM POSITIONS AND
TIMING SIGNALS THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND SEEM FAIRLY GOOD.
BETTER CONTINUITY AMONGST THE MODEL ENSEMBLES...SO LEANED CLOSER
TO THOSE BUT DID INCORPORATE A LITTLE OF THE 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF
INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF THE LONG TERM /WED NIGHT TO FRI/.

ANTICIPATE SLOW BUT STEADY CHANGE TO THE UPPER PATTERN LATE THIS
WEEK AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. FRI-SAT. THIS
WILL BRING AIRMASS CHANGE AS UPPER WINDS SHIFT TO NW...BRINGING
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE CONTINUES FOR THE THU-FRI
TIMEFRAME WITH PERIODIC PRECIP AND SCATTERED CONVECTION...THEN
COLD FRONT SHOULD SWEEP THROUGH FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE BEYOND FRIDAY AS MAY SEE SOME TIMING ISSUES WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH SOMETIME SAT. FEW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE...BUT TIMING IS DIFFICULT. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS THIS WEEKEND
TO RUN UP TO 5 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMS. DOES LOOK TO BE DRY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH CLOSE TO SEASONABLE TEMPS.

DETAILS...

THURSDAY NIGHT...TIMING OF A COLD FRONT IS STILL IN QUESTION.
THOUGH APPEARS IT SHOULD SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION THU NIGHT...MAY
REACH THE COAST BY 12Z FRI. HAVE CARRIED LIKELY TO CAT POPS AS
COLD FRONT PASSES. LOOKS LIKE BEST INSTABILITY MAY PASS E
OVERNIGHT...BUT COULD STILL SEE SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION SO KEPT
SCT THUNDER IN THE FORECAST. TEMPS DO START DROPPING BACK TO THE
LOWER-MID 50S LATE ACROSS FAR INTERIOR AREAS.

FRIDAY...COLD FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE E COAST DURING THE MORNING
BUT SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO MID MORNING ACROSS E MA.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE THOUGH IT WILL BE
NOTICEABLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BLOCKING UPPER PATTERN CONTINUES
ACROSS LABRADOR INTO GREENLAND THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME...WHICH WILL
KEEP HIGH PRES BUILDING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA DOWN THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. LONG RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. EXPECT DRY AND COOL
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ON
SATURDAY...EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S...RUNNING 4 TO 8
DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMS...THOUGH WILL MODIFY A BIT THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THIS TIMEFRAME.

DUE TO SEVERE WEATHER WATCH THIS AFTERNOON...KEPT PREVIOUS FORECAST
GOING FROM SUNDAY ONWARD...BUT LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

OVERVIEW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE OF
STRATUS AND FOG THROUGH THIS MORNING.

THROUGH 12Z...EXPECTING BANDS OF STRONG ENOUGH CONVECTION TO
AVOID. THESE BANDS OF CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT
MOVES EAST. MIXED CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD IFR
ACROSS THE MA COASTAL PLAIN AND MUCH OF RI AND NORTHERN
CT...IMPROVING TO POCKETS OF MVFR ACROSS THE INTERIOR. EVEN SOME
LOCALIZED VFR POSSIBLE.

TODAY...EXPECT MVFR-LIFR CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR
14-16Z AS SW WINDS DEVELOP. IFR MAY PERSIST MOST OF THE DAY AT
KACK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD
THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY WEST OF KMHT-KORH-KIJD.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. EXPECT VARIABLE
CONDITIONS DEPENDING UPON SHOWER AND FOG DEVELOPMENT. BETTER SHOT
FOR IFR VSBYS IN FOG ALONG S COAST ON S-SW WINDS AND MILD TEMPS
MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION
THOUGH BEST SHOT ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS...WITH MVFR-IFR
CIGS/VSBYS. MAY SEE LOCAL HEAVY DOWNPOURS. LOW CONFIDENCE ON
TIMING AND PLACEMENT.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. VERY UNSETTLED PATTERN
AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. VARIABLE CONDITIONS BETWEEN VFR
AND MVFR/IFR IN SHRA/TSRA/PATCHY FOG. COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION THU NIGHT...SO WILL SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN
AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT THU NIGHT...THEN INTO CENTRAL SECTIONS AFTER
06Z-07Z. MAY SEE SW WIND GUSTING UP TO 20-25 KT DURING THE DAY AS
WELL. WINDS SHIFT TO W-NW ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING OF LOWER CONDITIONS AND CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF...MAINLY DUE TO TIMING
OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. COULD SEE BRIEF IFR IN A BAND OF
TSRA. APPEARS THIS BAND WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE TERMINAL
THROUGH 0830Z.  WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAY SEE LEFTOVER POCKETS OF
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE ACROSS E MA THROUGH 14Z-15Z FRI.
OTHERWISE...VFR.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TONIGHT.

WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
THROUGH TODAY. INCREASING SW FLOW WILL RESULT IN SEAS BUILDING
OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS. WILL ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR ROUGH SEAS LATER TODAY INTO THURSDAY. WINDS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE GREAT LAKES.

EXPECT LOW VSBYS IN HEAVY SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG AT TIMES.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AS WELL...ESPECIALLY
NEAR SHORE.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO
CLEAR THE WATERS...SO EXPECT SW WINDS IN PLACE FOR A PORTION OF
THE DAY BEFORE SHIFTING TO W-NW ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SEAS WILL REMAIN ABOVE
SMALL CRAFT FOR MOST OF THE WEEKEND ESPECIALLY ON THE OUTER
WATERS. NW GUSTS MAY APPROACH 25 KT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/EVT
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...BELK/EVT
MARINE...BELK/EVT

000
FXUS61 KALY 220556
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
156 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY INTO THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY THURSDAY. WARM HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
INTO THURSDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THURSDAY A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SLOWLY THROUGH NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND. LOW
PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG THIS FRONT ON THE COAST FRIDAY...AS MUCH
COLDER AIR POURS INTO THE REGION. FRIDAY NIGHT THE STORM WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR
THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. IT WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER WITH
UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF I-88 CORRIDOR MOVING THROUGH FCA
ATTM. MAINLY HEAVY RAIN AND FREQ LIGHTNING. AREAS OF MODERATE RAIN
EXTEND BEHIND IT.

MOST AREAS TO BE IMPACTED WILL SEE ANOTHER 0.5 TO 1.O INCH OF RAIN
BRINGING TOTALS FOR TODAY UP TO 2-3 INCHES IN MOST AREAS IMPACTED
WITH SOME ISOLD 4 INCH AMOUNTS. AREAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED FROM MHWK VLY AND ADJACENT AREAS INTO S VT/BERKSHIRE COUNTY
FOR OVERNIGHT TO COVER ANY SMALL STREAM AND URBAN FLOODING.

THIS LINE SHOULD EXIT MOST OF UPSTATE NY/VT AND W MA NEXT 1.5 TO
2 HRS...EXCEPT CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON VLY WHERE IT IS JUST
ARRIVING IN AREAS THAT HAVE NOT HAD MUCH PCPN AT ALL OR SINCE
SINCE LATE TUES AFTN. IT SHOULD THEN DIMINISH AND END OVERNIGHT

AT SFC WMFNT IS LIFTING NE THROUGH FCA OVERNIGHT AND WILL BE ALONG
N TIER OR N OF RGN WED MRNG. IT WILL MOVE TO ST LAWRENCE VLY TO
MICHIGAN LINE...AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG AND PROPAGATES UP
IT TODAY. THIS LEAVES FCA IN WARM SECTOR WITH ALOT OF RESIDUAL
LLVL MOISTURE/CLOUDS FM TUES CONVECTION

WITH TD IN 60S...TEMPS REBOUNDING TO 80S...VRBL CLOUDS THE THREAT
OF TSTMS INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY. LOCAL WRF/HRRR WHICH HANDLED
TODAYS EVENT WELL...SHOW A MAINLY CELLULAR AND PULSE RESPONSE
TODAY IN SIMULATED REFL. GFS PRODUCES SFC CAPES ON THE ORDER OF
1000-2000 J/KG THE NAM 2000-4000 J/KG WITH A DEFINE PREFERENCE
FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT S & E AND THE MHWK VLY.

NAM AND GFS SHOW H850-700 LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.5 THIS AFTN.

GOING TO HRRR FOR THE LATE AFTN:

POU/ALB/GFL
CAPE 2000/1812/1777
J/KG MAX WIND 33/33/40 EHI OF 1.6/1.5/1.2
STORM SPEED 24/18/18
SRH 175/156/106
MAGLENTA 1.75/2.17/2.44 ALL MAJOR SEVERE

WHICH IS CONSIDERABLY STRONGER LOOKING THAN HRRR REFL. THE NAM
MODEL SOUNDINGS AND WRF MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE CONSIDERABLY LOWER IN
CAPE AROUND 1000-1200 J/KG.

PWATS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN A FEW STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL
WITH VALUES OF 1.50-1.8 INCHES.

SOME OTHER CONSIDERATIONS LLVL JET AT H850 HPA IS 25-35KTS...AND
BULK OF IT MAY PASS WEST OF FCA. THERE IS LITTLE ADDITIONAL UPPER
FORCING.  SPC HAS OUTLOOKED NY PORTIONS OF FCA AT THIS POINT WILL
NOT TRY TO GET SPECIFIC...WILL GO WITH ENHANCED WORDING TODAY. IF
THERES A PREFERRED AREA IT WOULD MHWK VLY AND S...AND A PREFERRED
TIME OF LATER IN THE AFTN AND EVENING.

CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVNG HOURS AND DIM OVERNIGHT AS
FCA IS FIRMLY IN WARM SECTION. LOWS AND TD WILL BE IN THE
60S...AND AREAS OF PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THU-THU NIGHT...TRICKY FORECAST FOR STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION
ON THU WITH THE COLD FRONT STILL TO THE WEST. THE BETTER JET
DYNAMICS DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH APPRECIABLE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY IN PLACE. THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH HEATING OCCURS
WITH CLOUD COVER BEING AND ISSUE. LOCATIONS FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST MAY HAVE THE BEST CHC FOR DESTABILIZATION
AND SEVERE WEATHER. NO SPC OUTLOOK YET...BUT DEFINITELY COULD SEE
ONE LATER FOR PARTS OF THE REGION. WILL MENTION SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON THU. THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH SLOWLY...WITH SHOWERS PERSISTING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. A
WEAK WAVE MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY TOO. THE COLD ADVECTION WILL
SLOWLY SEEP INTO THE REGION WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO L60S BY
DAYBREAK FRI. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S ON THU.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COOLER AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. HAVE
FOLLOWED THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER`S GUIDANCE WHICH FAVORS THE
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH HAS THE SUPPORT OF THE GEFS MEANS. WPC
INDICATES THE DETERMINISTIC/OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND GFS
DEVIATE SIGNIFICANTLY ENOUGH FROM THE STEADIER MEANS THAT THEY WERE
NOT INCORPORATION INTO THEIR FORECAST.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION AS WE HEAD INTO
THE WEEKEND BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WILL HAVE
LINGER SHOWERS ON FRIDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFF THE
EAST. ON SATURDAY...THE REGION WILL BE UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW. THE
HIGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION AND OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT
WEEK. SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE COOLEST DAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S...AROUND 10 DEGREE BELOW NORMAL.
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST
WITH NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY.

THE GROWING SEASON IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...
GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...THE MOHAWK
VALLEY...EASTERN CATSKILLS...TACONICS...BERKSHIRES...BENNINGTON AND
EASTERN WINDHAM COUNTIES VT AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY. IT WILL START ON
MAY 25TH FOR THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN WINDHAM COUNTY.

AT THIS TIME...NIGHTTIME LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING AND
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40S IN THE
VALLEYS AND 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH THE EXPANSION OF
THE GROWING SEASON BY THIS TIME FROST ADVISORIES WOULD BE LIKELY
NEEDED FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS COULD BE COLDER WHICH WOULD LEAD TO THE NEED FOR A
FREEZE WARNING.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ACCOUNTING FOR CURRENT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT SHOULD
CONTINUE AT KGFL THROUGH ABOUT 06Z...AT KALB THROUGH ABOUT
07Z-08Z...AND KPSF THROUGH ABOUT 08Z.  SOME MVFR AND OCCASIONAL IFR
CONDITIONS IN THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  SOME OTHER ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WELL WEST OF THE AREA COULD APPROACH THE AREA BETWEEN
KALB AND KPOU THROUGH SUNRISE...BUT WITH CONTINUED STABILIZATION OF
THE ATMOSPHERE THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD DISSIPATE BY THEN.

ONCE THE RAIN ENDS EARLY THIS MORNING...THERE COULD BE PERIODS OF
MVFR FOG AND VFR CEILINGS...BUT SCATTERED CLOUDS COULD DEVELOP BELOW
1000 FEET. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ANY BETTER CLEARING TOWARD
SUNRISE THAT COULD RESULT IN IFR FOG AND/OR CEILINGS BELOW 1000
FEET.  FOR NOW NOT INDICATING ANY IFR CONDITIONS AT ANY TAF SITES
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...BUT WILL AMEND IF CONDITIONS AND
TRENDS CHANGE.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY AFTER 12Z
UNTIL NEW CONVECTION DEVELOPS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MIXED SIGNALS ABOUT WHERE THE CONCENTRATION OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
LATER TODAY SO PUTTING VCSH IN ALL TAFS AFTER 22Z...BUT MORE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED SCATTERED ACROSS THE REGION LATE
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT SOUTH THROUGH SUNRISE...THEN BECOME VARIABLE
AT LESS THAN 10 KT THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW...MAINLY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT AGAIN TOMORROW EVENING. WINDS COULD
BE QUITE GUSTY IN THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
WED...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA/-TSRA ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTN.
WED NIGHT...VFR/MVFR. AT KGFL AND KALB -SHRA/-TSRA LIKELY. AT KPSF
AND KPOU CHC -SHRA/-TSRA.
THU...MVFR WITH IFR POSSIBLE. -SHRA/-TSRA LIKELY.
THU NIGHT...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA/-TSRA ESPECIALLY IN THE EVNG.
FRI...MAINLY VFR. CHC -TSRA MAINLY IN THE AM.
SAT-SUN...VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH FRIDAY. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY.

RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...AND LOWER TO 45 TO 60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL MAINLY LESS THAN 10 MPH THROUGH TONIGHT...BECOMING
SOUTHWEST AROUND 10MPH THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
PWATS ON THE ORDER OF 1.5 TO 2.0 INCHES NEXT FEW DAYS. WHILE
WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN
THUNDERSTORMS AND TRAINING COULD RESULT IN SMALL STREAM AND URBAN
FLOODING OVERNIGHT AND AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. SIGNIFICANT WITHIN
BANK RISES ARE LIKELY IN LARGER RIVERS.

3-HR ZONAL FFG VALUES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 2.5-3.0 INCH RANGE AT
THIS TIME...WHICH ARE HIGH FOR MID TO LATE MAY.

DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
BASIN AVERAGE QPF WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE THIS WEEK. THE BEST
THREAT FOR SEEING SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL THIS AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...SNYDER
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...IAA/NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER

000
FXUS61 KOKX 220546
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
146 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT...THEN
DISSIPATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SLOWLY
APPROACH FROM THE WEST...THEN PASS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR THE
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
HAVE UPDATED GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT OBSERVATION TRENDS.

ADVECTION FOG/STRATUS EXPANDING INTO ERN-MOST LONG ISLAND SOUND
AND NEARBY LAND AREAS. WILL CONTINUE WITH DENSE FOG ADVY FOR THE
FORKS OF LONG ISLAND AND COASTAL SE CT...WITH PATCHY FOG
ELSEWHERE.

WATCHING LINE OF CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL NY STATE...WHICH THE RA
AND HRRR SUGGEST COULD MAKE A RIGHT TURN TOWARD THE CWA OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY WED MORNING. CONVECTION APPEARS OUTFLOW-DOMINATED
WHICH SUGGESTS EVENTUAL WEAKENING. HOWEVER...SINCE THAT OUTFLOW IS
SOMEWHAT ALIGNED WITH THE BULK 0-3 KM SHEAR...SOME REDEVELOPMENT
COULD OCCUR CLOSER TO THE HUDSON VALLEY AND INTERIOR SW CT LATE
TONIGHT...SO HAVE CARRIED A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR ALL AREAS LATE
TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING.

BACK DOOR FRONT ADVANCING WWD INTO SOUTHERN CT AND EASTERN LONG
ISLAND WILL LEAD TO A COOLER NIGHT THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST...WITH
LOWER 55-60. IT WILL HOWEVER REMAIN WARM AND MUGGY OVER THE
HUDSON VALLEY...NYC METRO AND LONG ISLAND...WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
LOOKS LIKE A SIMILAR DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS RIDGE SLOWLY SHIFTS
EAST. BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD QUICKLY WASH OUT WITH DAYTIME
HEATING...AND MORNING FOG AND STRATUS WILL GIVE WAY TO AT LEAST
PARTIAL SUNSHINE. CONVECTION SHOULD BE SCATTERED AT BEST WITH ONLY
MARGINAL INSTABILITY IN PLACE...LESS THAN TODAY. HIGHS IN THE MID
80S...EXCEPT ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY TRANSLATES
EAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND THEN OFFSHORE BY THE WEEKEND.
INTERACTION WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE
POLAR JET ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL AMPLIFY THE TROUGH ACROSS THE
OH VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS AMPLIFICATION RESULTS IN
TIMING ISSUES AMONGST THE GLOBAL MODELS...WITH THE OPERATIONAL 12Z
GFS THE SLOWEST AT THE WESTERN END OF THE ENVELOPE. THE ECMWF AND
GGEM ARE THE QUICKEST WITH SWINGING THE FRONT ACROSS THE COAST BY
FRI MORNING. IN FACT...THE GFS CONTINUES TO BECOME MUCH SLOWER
THAN ALL THE GUIDANCE FRI INTO SAT AS THE UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF
APPROACHING THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...TAKING ON A NEGATIVE TILT
MUCH CLOSER TO THE COAST. THIS WOULD RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF POST-FRONTAL RAIN INTO SAT. PREFERENCE AT THIS TIME WAS TO LEAN
TOWARD THE FASTER MODEL CONSENSUS WITH PCPN SHUTTING DOWN FRI
AFT. SUBSEQUENT MODEL TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED TO
SEE IF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM SLOWS DOWN EVEN FURTHER.

AS FOR THE SENSIBLE WEATHER...COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
THU...PASSING ACROSS THE REGION THU NIGHT INTO FRI. HIGH PW
VALUES AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WORK WEST TO EAST
DURING THIS TIME. THE ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LOW AT THIS
TIME WITH THE LOW-LEVEL JET DISPLACED EAST OF THE AREA AND
MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR. UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES SUPPORT
SOME BOWING LINE SEGMENTS WITH GUSTY WINDS. WET-BULB ZERO VALUES ARE
WARM...SUPPORTING ONLY SMALL HAIL. THE MAIN THREAT LOOKS TO BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY IF THE UPPER FLOW
BACKS FURTHER WITH THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER TROF TO THE
WEST. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL SHOULD BE CLOSE TO AN INCH...WITH
LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS.

A DRIER NW FLOW SET UPS FRI NIGHT WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE AVIATION FORECAST AS A NEARLY STATIONARY
FRONT WILL REMAIN NORTH ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY WHILE
FARTHER EAST THE FRONT WAS MOVING WESTWARD AS A COLD FRONT. THE
FRONT WILL MAKE IT TO AROUND NEW YORK CITY BY MORNING BEFORE
MOVING BACK NORTH DURING THE MORNING.

STRATUS AND FOG HAS BEGUN TO MOVE IN FROM THE EAST AND WILL MOVE
INTO THE NYC AREA TERMINALS FROM 08Z TO 10Z. CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES BECOME IFR AND AS LOW AS VLIFR AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS ESPECIALLY AFTER 07Z. CONDITIONS IMPROVE EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...13Z TO 15Z. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT AND CONDITIONS
UNCERTAIN. WIND WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT
THEN INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT DURING WEDNESDAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 16Z MAINLY NORTH
AND WEST OF THE NEW YORK TERMINALS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SCT SHRA AND TSTMS POSSIBLE. IFR POSSIBLE IN FOG
AND STRATUS.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...NUMEROUS SHRA AND TSTMS POSSIBLE. IFR POSSIBLE IN
FOG AND STRATUS.
.SATURDAY...RESIDUAL SHRA BEHIND A COLD FRONT WITH MVFR. BECOMING VFR
WITH NW WINDS INCREASING TO 20-30KT.
.SUNDAY...VFR WITH NW WINDS 20-25KT.

&&

.MARINE...
DENSE FOG BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS.
THIS ADVECTION FOG IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND BACK WEST OVERNIGHT.

SHALLOW BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING SE-E WINDS OVERNIGHT TO
THE ERN-MOST OCEAN WATERS...ALSO LONG ISLAND SOUND AND THE BAYS OF
LONG ISLAND. OTHERWISE...S-SW SUB SCA WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH WED NIGHT. SEAS SHOULD SLOWLY BUILD ON WED...BUT HAVE
UNDERCUT WAVEWATCH TO PREVENT REACHING SCA CRITERIA UNTIL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THINKING WITH STRONG INVERSION THAT WIND FORCING
WAS OVERDONE IN THE WW3 FORECAST.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WATERS FRIDAY MORNING...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS COULD BE BELOW
SCA LEVELS BY FRIDAY MORNING...WITH SEAS ON THE OCEAN REMAINING
ABOVE SCA CRITERIA THROUGH MUCH SATURDAY MORNING. UNDERCUT
WAVEWATCH BY A FOOT DURING THIS TIME AS IT WAS SLOWER BRINGING THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS THOUGH SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE SEAS DUE TO THE TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODELS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS/TSTMS TO ENTER THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED MORNING. SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS LATER WED WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH THE BEST
CHANCES NORTH/WEST OF NYC. TOTAL BASIN AVG QPF FOR WED-THU COULD
BE 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS IN TSTMS.

A MORE ORGANIZED EVENT LATE THU INTO FRI SHOULD PRODUCE AVERAGE
BASIN RAINFALL AMOUNTS CLOSE TO AN INCH...WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER
AMOUNTS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING OF THUNDERSTORMS
WHICH COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CTZ011-012.
NY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ079-081.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ330-340-
     345-350-353.

&&

$$

000
FXUS61 KOKX 220432
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1232 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT...THEN
DISSIPATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SLOWLY
APPROACH FROM THE WEST...THEN PASS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR THE
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
HAVE UPDATED GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT OBSERVATION TRENDS.

ADVECTION FOG/STRATUS EXPANDING INTO ERN-MOST LONG ISLAND SOUND
AND NEARBY LAND AREAS. WILL CONTINUE WITH DENSE FOG ADVY FOR THE
FORKS OF LONG ISLAND AND COASTAL SE CT...WITH PATCHY FOG
ELSEWHERE.

WATCHING LINE OF CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL NY STATE...WHICH THE RA
AND HRRR SUGGEST COULD MAKE A RIGHT TURN TOWARD THE CWA OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY WED MORNING. CONVECTION APPEARS OUTFLOW-DOMINATED
WHICH SUGGESTS EVENTUAL WEAKENING. HOWEVER...SINCE THAT OUTFLOW IS
SOMEWHAT ALIGNED WITH THE BULK 0-3 KM SHEAR...SOME REDEVELOPMENT
COULD OCCUR CLOSER TO THE HUDSON VALLEY AND INTERIOR SW CT LATE
TONIGHT...SO HAVE CARRIED A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR ALL AREAS LATE
TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING.

BACK DOOR FRONT ADVANCING WWD INTO SOUTHERN CT AND EASTERN LONG
ISLAND WILL LEAD TO A COOLER NIGHT THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST...WITH
LOWER 55-60. IT WILL HOWEVER REMAIN WARM AND MUGGY OVER THE
HUDSON VALLEY...NYC METRO AND LONG ISLAND...WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
LOOKS LIKE A SIMILAR DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS RIDGE SLOWLY SHIFTS
EAST. BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD QUICKLY WASH OUT WITH DAYTIME
HEATING...AND MORNING FOG AND STRATUS WILL GIVE WAY TO AT LEAST
PARTIAL SUNSHINE. CONVECTION SHOULD BE SCATTERED AT BEST WITH ONLY
MARGINAL INSTABILITY IN PLACE...LESS THAN TODAY. HIGHS IN THE MID
80S...EXCEPT ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY TRANSLATES
EAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND THEN OFFSHORE BY THE WEEKEND.
INTERACTION WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE
POLAR JET ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL AMPLIFY THE TROUGH ACROSS THE
OH VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS AMPLIFICATION RESULTS IN
TIMING ISSUES AMONGST THE GLOBAL MODELS...WITH THE OPERATIONAL 12Z
GFS THE SLOWEST AT THE WESTERN END OF THE ENVELOPE. THE ECMWF AND
GGEM ARE THE QUICKEST WITH SWINGING THE FRONT ACROSS THE COAST BY
FRI MORNING. IN FACT...THE GFS CONTINUES TO BECOME MUCH SLOWER
THAN ALL THE GUIDANCE FRI INTO SAT AS THE UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF
APPROACHING THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...TAKING ON A NEGATIVE TILT
MUCH CLOSER TO THE COAST. THIS WOULD RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF POST-FRONTAL RAIN INTO SAT. PREFERENCE AT THIS TIME WAS TO LEAN
TOWARD THE FASTER MODEL CONSENSUS WITH PCPN SHUTTING DOWN FRI
AFT. SUBSEQUENT MODEL TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED TO
SEE IF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM SLOWS DOWN EVEN FURTHER.

AS FOR THE SENSIBLE WEATHER...COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
THU...PASSING ACROSS THE REGION THU NIGHT INTO FRI. HIGH PW
VALUES AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WORK WEST TO EAST
DURING THIS TIME. THE ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LOW AT THIS
TIME WITH THE LOW-LEVEL JET DISPLACED EAST OF THE AREA AND
MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR. UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES SUPPORT
SOME BOWING LINE SEGMENTS WITH GUSTY WINDS. WET-BULB ZERO VALUES ARE
WARM...SUPPORTING ONLY SMALL HAIL. THE MAIN THREAT LOOKS TO BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY IF THE UPPER FLOW
BACKS FURTHER WITH THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER TROF TO THE
WEST. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL SHOULD BE CLOSE TO AN INCH...WITH
LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS.

A DRIER NW FLOW SET UPS FRI NIGHT WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN NORTH ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY WHILE FARTHER EAST THE FRONT WAS MOVING WESTWARD AS A COLD
FRONT. THE FRONT WILL MAKE IT TO AROUND NEW YORK CITY BY MORNING
BEFORE MOVING BACK NORTH DURING THE MORNING.

STRATUS AND FOG WAS BEGINNING TO MOVE IN FROM THE EAST AND WILL MOVE
INTO THE NYC AREA TERMINALS FROM 08Z TO 10Z. CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES BECOME IFR AND AS LOW AS VLIFR AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS
ESPECIALLY AFTER 07Z. CONDITIONS IMPROVE EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...13Z TO 15Z. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT AND CONDITIONS
UNCERTAIN. WIND WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT THEN
INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT DURING WEDNESDAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 16Z MAINLY NORTH
AND WEST OF THE NEW YORK TERMINALS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SCT SHRA AND TSTMS POSSIBLE. IFR POSSIBLE IN FOG
AND STRATUS.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...NUMEROUS SHRA AND TSTMS POSSIBLE. IFR POSSIBLE IN
FOG AND STRATUS.
.SATURDAY...RESIDUAL SHRA BEHIND A COLD FRONT WITH MVFR. BECOMING VFR
WITH NW WINDS INCREASING TO 20-30KT.
.SUNDAY...VFR WITH NW WINDS 20-25KT.

&&

.MARINE...
DENSE FOG BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS.
THIS ADVECTION FOG IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND BACK WEST OVERNIGHT.

SHALLOW BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING SE-E WINDS OVERNIGHT TO
THE ERN-MOST OCEAN WATERS...ALSO LONG ISLAND SOUND AND THE BAYS OF
LONG ISLAND. OTHERWISE...S-SW SUB SCA WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH WED NIGHT. SEAS SHOULD SLOWLY BUILD ON WED...BUT HAVE
UNDERCUT WAVEWATCH TO PREVENT REACHING SCA CRITERIA UNTIL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THINKING WITH STRONG INVERSION THAT WIND FORCING
WAS OVERDONE IN THE WW3 FORECAST.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WATERS FRIDAY MORNING...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS COULD BE BELOW
SCA LEVELS BY FRIDAY MORNING...WITH SEAS ON THE OCEAN REMAINING
ABOVE SCA CRITERIA THROUGH MUCH SATURDAY MORNING. UNDERCUT
WAVEWATCH BY A FOOT DURING THIS TIME AS IT WAS SLOWER BRINGING THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS THOUGH SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE SEAS DUE TO THE TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODELS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS/TSTMS TO ENTER THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED MORNING. SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS LATER WED WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH THE BEST
CHANCES NORTH/WEST OF NYC. TOTAL BASIN AVG QPF FOR WED-THU COULD
BE 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS IN TSTMS.

A MORE ORGANIZED EVENT LATE THU INTO FRI SHOULD PRODUCE AVERAGE
BASIN RAINFALL AMOUNTS CLOSE TO AN INCH...WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER
AMOUNTS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING OF THUNDERSTORMS
WHICH COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CTZ011-012.
NY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ079-081.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ330-340-
     345-350-353.

&&

$$

000
FXUS61 KALY 220407
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1207 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. SOME OF THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE
STRONG TO SEVERE THIS EVENING AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE REGION ON THURSDAY...AND MOVE EAST OF THE REGION ON
FRIDAY WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FOR THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
HAVE ALLOWED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #203 TO EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT.
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER HAS DIMINISHED. A SUMMARY LOCAL STORM
REPORT (LSR) HAS BEEN ISSUED. THE LAST SEVERE WEATHER REPORT WE
RECEIVED WAS 9:35 PM. THREAT FOR THE OVERNIGHT WILL BE HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH CONVECTION. HAVE ADDED ENHANCED WORDING FOR THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.

AS 914 PM EDT...ADDITIONAL CONVECTION...STRONG TO SEVERE...IS
MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH BOWING SEGMENTS. THE ALBANY
00Z SOUNDING HAS MOST UNSTABLE CAPE OF 1800 J/KG AND THE 850-500
MB LAPSE RATE OF 7.2 C/KM. SPC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO
HAVE THE BEST 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH THE HIGHEST INSTABILITY ACROSS THE SOUTH.
MAJORITY OF REPORTS EARLIER TODAY WHERE HAIL AND THIS EVENING WE
HAVE HAD WIND AND HAIL REPORTS.

AS 415 PM EDT...IMPRESSIVE LARGE HAIL PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE CAPITAL REGION...AND POINTS JUST TO THE
SOUTH. THE CELLS HAVE EXHIBITED HAIL MONSTER LIKE CHARACTERISTICS
WITH SOME ELEVATED HAIL CORES /> 50 DBZS/ WAY ABOVE THE -20C
HEIGHT. IN SOME CASES...EXCEEDING 40 KFT AGL !!!

A QUICK MESOANALYIS SHOWS A WEAK SFC LOW/MESO LOW IS MOVING
ACROSS THE CNTRL PORTION OF THE FCST AREA...WITH THE WINDS TO THE
NORTHEAST AT KGFL...AND S/SW AT KPOU...AND SE WINDS OVER ALY. THE FCST
AREA GOT INTO A WELL DEFINED WARM SECTOR...WHERE TEMPS SOARED INTO
THE MID AND U80S...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION/MOHAWK
VALLEY SOUTHWARD. A FEW 90S HAVE OCCURRED IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY. THE FRONT LOOKS LIKE IT IS JUST CLIPPING THE DACKS...LAKE
GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...AND S-CNTRL VT.

SFC DEWPTS HAVE RISEN INTO THE MID AND U60S OVER A LARGE PORTION
OF THE FCST AREA. THE LATEST SPC MESO ANALYSIS PAGE INDICATES SBCAPES
HAVE REACHED 2000-3500+ J/KG FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND
EAST...AND LESS INSTABILITY NORTHWARD /1000-2000 J/KG/. THE 0-6 KM
BULK SHEAR ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE IN THE SRN ZONES /BASICALLY
SOUTH OF ALY/ WITH LESS THAN 30 KTS...BUT TO THE NORTH THE SHEAR
VALUES ARE 30-40 KTS. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE APPROACHING THE
6.5 C/KM RANGE. THE CONVECTION SEEMS TO REFIRING ON THE AXIS OF
2000+ J/KG SBCAPE VALUES...AND THE RIM OF THE 30 KT SHEAR VALUES.

THE LATEST MAGLENTA INDEX INDICATES A MAJOR SEVERE EVENT /HINGING
ON THE LARGE CAPE VALUES/.

CAPE=2000 J/KG (APPROX)
MAX SOUNDING WIND=40 KTS
EHI=0.5
STORM SPEED=20
KTS SRH=125

THE SVR CONVECTION SHOULD SIMMER DOWN EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT THE
APPROACHING SHORT-WAVE FROM EXTREME SE ONTARIO...AND NRN LAKE
ONTARIO WILL IMPACT OUR NRN ZONES BTWN BTWN 7 PM-10 PM. THE
INSTABILITY WILL BE WANING...AND WE KEPT GUSTY WINDS IN THE
FORECAST. POPS WERE RAISED TO CATEGORICAL AND HIGH LIKELY
VALUES...AND LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY COULD GET SOME
DECENT RAINFALL. THE BEST LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT SETS UP IN THESE AREAS. THE SHOWALTER VALUES ARE STILL BELOW
0C...SO SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE A ROUND...SO WE WILL
KEEP A CHANCE OF THUNDER IN.

OVERNIGHT MINS WILL BE ON THE MURKY SIDE WITH TEMPS IN THE U50S TO
M60S FOR LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE SFC BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT
AGAIN...AND THE FCST AREA GETS BACK INTO THE WARM SECTOR. ANOTHER
SHORT-WAVE WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES IN THE MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON. SBCAPES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE 1000-2500 J/KG
AGAIN OVER THE SRN TWO THIRDS OF THE FCST AREA WITH 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES ONLY 25-30 KTS OR SO PRIOR TO 00Z...BUT THEN THEY
INCREASE BTWN 00Z-06Z BASED ON THE NAM/GFS. THE LAPSE RATES DON/T
STEEPEN TO 6.5C/KM UNTIL AROUND 00Z TOO. OUR THINKING IS FOR A
LATER CONVECTIVE EVENT TOMORROW IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. SPC HAS MOST OF THE AREA OUTLOOKED /EXCEPT WRN NEW
ENGLAND/. HAVE DECIDED TO USE ENHANCED WORDING FOR SOME STORMS MAY
BE SEVERE IN THE AFTERNOON UNTIL MIDNIGHT. THE GUIDANCE USUALLY
STRUGGLES WITH PREFRONTAL TROUGHS...AND ONE LOOKS POSSIBLE LATE
TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
CONVECTION. PWATS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN A FEW STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL WITH VALUES OF 1.25-1.75"...AND SFC DEWPTS WILL BE IN
THE 60S AGAIN. SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
CONVECTION. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT TOMORROWS SEVERE THREAT.
OUR LOCAL WRF INDICATES A SQUALL LINE MAY BE MOVING ACROSS W-CNTRL
NY BY 00Z/THU IN THE 3KM BASE REF. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED. HIGHS TOMORROW IN THE U70S TO L80S OVER THE MTNS...AND
M80S TO U80S IN THE VALLEYS. LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 60S WED
NIGHT WITH SULTRY SUMMERLIKE CONDITIONS.

THU-THU NIGHT...TRICKY FORECAST FOR STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION ON
THU WITH THE COLD FRONT STILL TO THE WEST. THE BETTER JET DYNAMICS
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH APPRECIABLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN
PLACE. THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH HEATING OCCURS WITH CLOUD
COVER BEING AND ISSUE. LOCATIONS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH
AND EAST MAY HAVE THE BEST CHC FOR DESTABILIZATION AND SEVERE
WEATHER. NO SPC OUTLOOK YET...BUT DEFINITELY COULD SEE ONE LATER
FOR PARTS OF THE REGION.  WILL MENTION SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON THU. THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH SLOWLY...WITH SHOWERS PERSISTING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. A
WEAK WAVE MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY TOO. THE COLD ADVECTION WILL
SLOWLY SEEP INTO THE REGION WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO L60S BY
DAYBREAK FRI. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S ON THU.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COOLER AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. HAVE
FOLLOWED THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER`S GUIDANCE WHICH FAVORS THE
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH HAS THE SUPPORT OF THE GEFS MEANS. WPC
INDICATES THE DETERMINISTIC/OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND GFS
DEVIATE SIGNIFICANTLY ENOUGH FROM THE STEADIER MEANS THAT THEY WERE
NOT INCORPORATION INTO THEIR FORECAST.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION AS WE HEAD INTO
THE WEEKEND BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WILL HAVE
LINGER SHOWERS ON FRIDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFF THE
EAST. ON SATURDAY...THE REGION WILL BE UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW. THE
HIGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION AND OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT
WEEK. SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE COOLEST DAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S...AROUND 10 DEGREE BELOW NORMAL.
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST
WITH NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY.

THE GROWING SEASON IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...
GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...THE MOHAWK
VALLEY...EASTERN CATSKILLS...TACONICS...BERKSHIRES...BENNINGTON AND
EASTERN WINDHAM COUNTIES VT AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY. IT WILL START ON
MAY 25TH FOR THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN WINDHAM COUNTY.

AT THIS TIME...NIGHTTIME LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING AND
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40S IN THE
VALLEYS AND 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH THE EXPANSION OF
THE GROWING SEASON BY THIS TIME FROST ADVISORIES WOULD BE LIKELY
NEEDED FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS COULD BE COLDER WHICH WOULD LEAD TO THE NEED FOR A
FREEZE WARNING.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HAVE BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS REGION PROVIDING FOCUS FOR CONVECTION.
ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION...STRONG TO SEVERE...HAS MOVED INTO
THE AREA AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ALSO HAVE
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. BASED TIMING OF
CONVECTION THROUGH TAFS ON RADAR TRENDS. DO EXPECT A LULL IN
CONVECTION WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH RENEWED CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT
AGAIN...AND THE AREA GETS BACK INTO THE WARM SECTOR.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TONIGHT BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
WITH THE BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD A SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH IFR POSSIBLE. -SHRA/-TSRA BECOMING LIKELY.
THU...MVFR WITH IFR POSSIBLE. -SHRA/-TSRA LIKELY.
FRI...MAINLY VFR. CHC -SHRA.
SAT-SUN...VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH FRIDAY. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND LOWER TO 45 TO 60 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

TH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY LESS THAN 10 MPH TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...EXCEPT STRONGER GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO SERVICE AREAS PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5
DAYS. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS OF RAINFALL MAY OCCUR TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORMS. 3-HR ZONAL FFG
VALUES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 2.4-3.1 INCH RANGE AT THIS
TIME...WHICH ARE HIGH FOR MID TO LATE MAY.

DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
BASIN AVERAGE QPF WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE THIS WEEK. THE BEST
THREAT FOR SEEING SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE TONIGHT...AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT.

THE HIGHEST AREAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF
THE FCST AREA BASED ON THE LATEST NERFC QPF WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES
POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY MORNING OVER THE SRN DACKS...LAKE GEORGE
REGION...AND A THIRD OF AN INCH TO AN INCH SOUTH OF THESE
LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS CAN OCCUR WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE HUMID AIR MASS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA/NAS
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/WASULA

000
FXUS61 KOKX 220346
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1146 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT...THEN
DISSIPATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SLOWLY
APPROACH FROM THE WEST...THEN PASS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR THE
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
ADVECTION FOG/STRATUS IS EXPANDING INTO ERN-MOST LONG ISLAND SOUND
AND NEARBY LAND AREAS. WILL HOLD THE COURSE WITH DENSE FOG ADVY
FOR THE FORKS OF LONG ISLAND AND COASTAL SE CT...WITH PATCHY
FOG ELSEWHERE.

WATCHING LINE OF CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL NY STATE...WHICH THE RA
AND HRRR SUGGEST COULD MAKE A RIGHT TURN TOWARD THE CWA LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED MORNING. CONVECTION APPEARS OUTFLOW-
DOMINATED WHICH SUGGESTS EVENTUAL WEAKENING. HOWEVER...SINCE THAT
OUTFLOW IS SOMEWHAT ALIGNED WITH THE BULK 0-3 KM SHEAR...SOME
REDEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR CLOSER TO THE HUDSON VALLEY AND INTERIOR
SW CT LATE TONIGHT...SO HAVE CARRIED A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR ALL
AREAS LATE TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING.

BACK DOOR FRONT ADVANCING WWD INTO SOUTHERN CT AND EASTERN LONG
ISLAND WILL LEAD TO A COOLER NIGHT THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST...WITH
LOWER 55-60. IT WILL HOWEVER REMAIN WARM AND MUGGY OVER THE
HUDSON VALLEY...NYC METRO AND LONG ISLAND...WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
LOOKS LIKE A SIMILAR DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS RIDGE SLOWLY SHIFTS
EAST. BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD QUICKLY WASH OUT WITH DAYTIME
HEATING...AND MORNING FOG AND STRATUS WILL GIVE WAY TO AT LEAST
PARTIAL SUNSHINE. CONVECTION SHOULD BE SCATTERED AT BEST WITH ONLY
MARGINAL INSTABILITY IN PLACE...LESS THAN TODAY. HIGHS IN THE MID
80S...EXCEPT ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY TRANSLATES
EAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND THEN OFFSHORE BY THE WEEKEND.
INTERACTION WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE
POLAR JET ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL AMPLIFY THE TROUGH ACROSS THE
OH VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS AMPLIFICATION RESULTS IN
TIMING ISSUES AMONGST THE GLOBAL MODELS...WITH THE OPERATIONAL 12Z
GFS THE SLOWEST AT THE WESTERN END OF THE ENVELOPE. THE ECMWF AND
GGEM ARE THE QUICKEST WITH SWINGING THE FRONT ACROSS THE COAST BY
FRI MORNING. IN FACT...THE GFS CONTINUES TO BECOME MUCH SLOWER
THAN ALL THE GUIDANCE FRI INTO SAT AS THE UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF
APPROACHING THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...TAKING ON A NEGATIVE TILT
MUCH CLOSER TO THE COAST. THIS WOULD RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF POST-FRONTAL RAIN INTO SAT. PREFERENCE AT THIS TIME WAS TO LEAN
TOWARD THE FASTER MODEL CONSENSUS WITH PCPN SHUTTING DOWN FRI
AFT. SUBSEQUENT MODEL TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED TO
SEE IF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM SLOWS DOWN EVEN FURTHER.

AS FOR THE SENSIBLE WEATHER...COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
THU...PASSING ACROSS THE REGION THU NIGHT INTO FRI. HIGH PW
VALUES AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WORK WEST TO EAST
DURING THIS TIME. THE ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LOW AT THIS
TIME WITH THE LOW-LEVEL JET DISPLACED EAST OF THE AREA AND
MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR. UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES SUPPORT
SOME BOWING LINE SEGMENTS WITH GUSTY WINDS. WET-BULB ZERO VALUES ARE
WARM...SUPPORTING ONLY SMALL HAIL. THE MAIN THREAT LOOKS TO BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY IF THE UPPER FLOW
BACKS FURTHER WITH THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER TROF TO THE
WEST. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL SHOULD BE CLOSE TO AN INCH...WITH
LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS.

A DRIER NW FLOW SET UPS FRI NIGHT WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN NORTH ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY WHILE FARTHER EAST THE FRONT WAS MOVING WESTWARD AS A COLD
FRONT. THE FRONT WILL MAKE IT TO AROUND NEW YORK CITY BY MORNING
BEFORE MOVING BACK NORTH DURING THE MORNING.

STRATUS AND FOG WAS BEGINNING TO MOVE IN FROM THE EAST AND WILL MOVE
INTO THE NYC AREA TERMINALS FROM 08Z TO 10Z. CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES BECOME IFR AND AS LOW AS VLIFR AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS
ESPECIALLY AFTER 07Z. CONDITIONS IMPROVE EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...13Z TO 15Z. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT AND CONDITIONS
UNCERTAIN. WIND WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT THEN
INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT DURING WEDNESDAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 16Z MAINLY NORTH
AND WEST OF THE NEW YORK TERMINALS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SCT SHRA AND TSTMS POSSIBLE. IFR POSSIBLE IN FOG
AND STRATUS.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...NUMEROUS SHRA AND TSTMS POSSIBLE. IFR POSSIBLE IN
FOG AND STRATUS.
.SATURDAY...RESIDUAL SHRA BEHIND A COLD FRONT WITH MVFR. BECOMING VFR
WITH NW WINDS INCREASING TO 20-30KT.
.SUNDAY...VFR WITH NW WINDS 20-25KT.

&&

.MARINE...
DENSE FOG BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS.
THIS ADVECTION FOG IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND BACK WEST OVERNIGHT.

SHALLOW BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING SE-E WINDS OVERNIGHT TO
THE ERN-MOST OCEAN WATERS...ALSO LONG ISLAND SOUND AND THE BAYS OF
LONG ISLAND. OTHERWISE...S-SW SUB SCA WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH WED NIGHT. SEAS SHOULD SLOWLY BUILD ON WED...BUT HAVE
UNDERCUT WAVEWATCH TO PREVENT REACHING SCA CRITERIA UNTIL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THINKING WITH STRONG INVERSION THAT WIND FORCING
WAS OVERDONE IN THE WW3 FORECAST.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WATERS FRIDAY MORNING...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS COULD BE BELOW
SCA LEVELS BY FRIDAY MORNING...WITH SEAS ON THE OCEAN REMAINING
ABOVE SCA CRITERIA THROUGH MUCH SATURDAY MORNING. UNDERCUT
WAVEWATCH BY A FOOT DURING THIS TIME AS IT WAS SLOWER BRINGING THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS THOUGH SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE SEAS DUE TO THE TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODELS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS/TSTMS TO ENTER THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED MORNING. SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS LATER WED WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH THE BEST
CHANCES NORTH/WEST OF NYC. TOTAL BASIN AVG QPF FOR WED-THU COULD
BE 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS IN TSTMS.

A MORE ORGANIZED EVENT LATE THU INTO FRI SHOULD PRODUCE AVERAGE
BASIN RAINFALL AMOUNTS CLOSE TO AN INCH...WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER
AMOUNTS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING OF THUNDERSTORMS
WHICH COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ011-012.
NY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ079.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ081.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ330-340.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ345-350-
     353.

&&

$$

000
FXUS61 KBOX 220300
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1100 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS SNE TONIGHT BEFORE LIFTING
TO THE NORTH WEDNESDAY. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
1045 PM UPDATE...

STILL MONITORING CONVECTION MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST NH AND WESTERN
MA. THIS CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE MOVING INTO A LESS FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR IT TO HOLD TOGETHER...AT LEAST AT THE POINT WHERE
THERE WOULD BE SIGNIFICANT CONCERN FOR SEVERE WEATHER. WILL STILL
NEED TO MONITOR THESE STORMS AS THERE ARE STILL FAIRLY POTENT. THE
EXPECTATION IS THESE STORMS WILL BE ELEVATED ABOVE THE FAIRLY
STABLE MARINE LAYER WHICH HAS ENTRENCHED ITSELF ACROSS EASTERN MA
AND RI. THUS THE MAIN THREATS WOULD BE HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLY
SOME SMALL HAIL.

HAVE UPDATED GRIDS TO BRING NEAR-TERM FORECAST CURRENT WITH
OBSERVED TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD SHOULD BE DRY. THE BACKDOOR FRONT
MAY MAKE IT TO THE CT VALLEY LATER TONIGHT BEFORE STALLING. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO REDEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT...
ESPECIALLY IN THE COASTAL PLAIN AND A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED AGAIN. MIN TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S WITH LOWER 60S
IN THE LOWER CT VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
BACKDOOR FRONT WILL MOVE/JUMP TO THE NORTH ON WED AS LOW LEVEL SW
FLOW MIXES DOWN TO THE SURFACE. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL ERODE AS
SW FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED...BUT THE LOW CLOUDS/FOG MAY LINGER
MOST OF THE DAY OVER THE ISLANDS AND ESPECIALLY ACK. 850 MB TEMPS
15-16C SO IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID DAY WITH TEMPS WELL
INTO THE 80S AWAY FROM THE S COAST AND POSSIBLY A FEW LOCATIONS
NEARING 90 IN THE INTERIOR VALLEYS.

CONVECTION WILL BE A CONCERN ONCE AGAIN WED AFTERNOON AS
ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. HIGHEST MLCAPES 1000-2000 J/KG WILL BE
FOCUSED MOSTLY WEST OF I95 AS SW FLOW WILL ACT TO STABILIZE THE
COASTAL PLAIN. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS A BIT WEAKER WED AND MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE MARGINAL...BUT MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY SUGGESTS
SCT STORMS WILL DEVELOP AND CANT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS IN THE INTERIOR.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
* COOLER AND LESS HUMID FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
  WEEK

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

MEDIUM RANGE OPERATIONAL MODEL SUITE SIGNALING AN AMPLIFIED...
SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ACROSS THE LOWER 48. AT THE START...
NOTING LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN
LAKES THOUGH SOME DIFFERENCES IN POSITIONING...ALONG WITH H5
CUTOFF LOW MOVING INTO THE WEST COAST. LOWER THAN AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
OPERATIONAL SUITE...THOUGH GENERAL SURFACE SYSTEM POSITIONS AND
TIMING SIGNALS THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND SEEM FAIRLY GOOD.
BETTER CONTINUITY AMONGST THE MODEL ENSEMBLES...SO LEANED CLOSER
TO THOSE BUT DID INCORPORATE A LITTLE OF THE 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF
INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF THE LONG TERM /WED NIGHT TO FRI/.

ANTICIPATE SLOW BUT STEADY CHANGE TO THE UPPER PATTERN LATE THIS
WEEK AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. FRI-SAT. THIS
WILL BRING AIRMASS CHANGE AS UPPER WINDS SHIFT TO NW...BRINGING
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE CONTINUES FOR THE THU-FRI
TIMEFRAME WITH PERIODIC PRECIP AND SCATTERED CONVECTION...THEN
COLD FRONT SHOULD SWEEP THROUGH FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE BEYOND FRIDAY AS MAY SEE SOME TIMING ISSUES WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH SOMETIME SAT. FEW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE...BUT TIMING IS DIFFICULT. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS THIS WEEKEND
TO RUN UP TO 5 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMS. DOES LOOK TO BE DRY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH CLOSE TO SEASONABLE TEMPS.

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BROAD UPPER RIDGING STARTS TO BREAK DOWN...
WHILE STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. MAY SEE WEAK WAVE MOVING ON THIS FRONT...WHICH COULD
BRING SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS FAR INTERIOR AREAS OF S NH/W MA/N
CENTRAL CT. KEPT CHANCE POPS GOING THERE. WITH SW FLOW IN
PLACE...EXPECT WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE
LOWER-MID 60S...EXCEPT THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.

THURSDAY...H5 TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH WITH ITS ASSOCIATED
SURFACE COLD FRONT. RATHER AMPLIFIED UPPER SYSTEM...SO COLD FRONT
WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE ACROSS.

WILL REMAIN WELL IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON
THURSDAY...SO EXPECT ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS. VERY HUMID
AIRMASS IN PLACE AS WELL...WITH PW VALUES AROUND 1.7 INCHES. WILL
LIKELY SEE SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH SOME SHOWERS...ALONG WITH HAIL
AND GUSTY WINDS. MAY NOT QUITE REACH SEVERE THRESHOLDS AS CLOUDS
WILL BE MORE PREVALENT.  EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY TO REACH THE MID
AND UPPER 70S...THOUGH A FEW SPOTS MAY REACH 80 IF THE SUN BREAKS
THROUGH. WILL ALSO SEE GUSTY SW WINDS...UP TO 20-25 KT DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

TIMING OF COLD FRONT IS STILL IN QUESTION...THOUGH APPEARS IT
SHOULD SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION THU NIGHT...MAY REACH THE COAST BY
12Z FRI. HAVE CARRIED LIKELY TO CAT POPS AS COLD FRONT PASSES.
LOOKS LIKE BEST INSTABILITY MAY PASS E OVERNIGHT...BUT COULD STILL
SEE SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION SO KEPT SCT THUNDER IN THE FORECAST.
TEMPS DO START DROPPING BACK TO THE LOWER-MID 50S LATE ACROSS FAR
INTERIOR AREAS.

FRIDAY...COLD FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE E COAST DURING THE MORNING
BUT SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO MID MORNING ACROSS E MA.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE THOUGH IT WILL BE
NOTICEABLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BLOCKING UPPER PATTERN CONTINUES
ACROSS LABRADOR INTO GREENLAND THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME...WHICH WILL
KEEP HIGH PRES BUILDING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA DOWN THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. LONG RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. EXPECT DRY AND COOL
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ON
SATURDAY...EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S...RUNNING 4 TO 8
DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMS...THOUGH WILL MODIFY A BIT THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THIS TIMEFRAME.

DUE TO SEVERE WEATHER WATCH THIS AFTERNOON...KEPT PREVIOUS FORECAST
GOING FROM SUNDAY ONWARD...BUT LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

OVERVIEW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE OF
STRATUS AND FOG THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

OVERNIGHT...EXPECTING SCT CONVECTION TO WEAKEN THROUGH 22/06Z.
STORMS LIKELY STILL STRONG ENOUGH TO STEER CLEAR OF THEIR PATH
THOUGH. WILL SEE WIDESPREAD IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS MAINLY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS WITH MVFR-IFR ACROSS THE CT VALLEY.

WEDNESDAY...EXPECT MVFR-LIFR CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO
VFR 14-16Z AS SW WINDS DEVELOP...BUT IFR MAY PERSIST MOST OF THE
DAY AT ACK.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING. IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL REDEVELOP...POSSIBLY AS SOON AS
LATE AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT CONDITIONS LOWER TO IFR
TONIGHT. EXACT TIMING UNCERTAIN.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT VARIABLE
CONDITIONS DEPENDING UPON SHOWER AND FOG DEVELOPMENT. BETTER SHOT
FOR IFR VSBYS IN FOG ALONG S COAST ON S-SW WINDS AND MILD TEMPS
MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION
THOUGH BEST SHOT ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS...WITH MVFR-IFR
CIGS/VSBYS. MAY SEE LOCAL HEAVY DOWNPOURS. LOW CONFIDENCE ON
TIMING AND PLACEMENT.

THURSDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VERY UNSETTLED PATTERN
AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. VARIABLE CONDITIONS BETWEEN VFR
AND MVFR/IFR IN SHRA/TSRA/PATCHY FOG. COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION THU NIGHT...SO WILL SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN
AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT THU NIGHT...THEN INTO CENTRAL SECTIONS AFTER
06Z-07Z. MAY SEE SW WIND GUSTING UP TO 20-25 KT DURING THE DAY AS
WELL. WINDS SHIFT TO W-NW ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAY SEE LEFTOVER POCKETS OF
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE ACROSS E MA THROUGH 14Z-15Z FRI.
OTHERWISE...VFR.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
THROUGH WED. INCREASING SW FLOW WILL RESULT IN SEAS BUILDING OVER
THE S COASTAL WATERS. LEANED MORE HEAVILY ON THE SWAN GUIDANCE FOR
SEAS FORECAST AS THE WNAWAVE GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE TOO HIGH. SEAS
COULD BUILD TO 5 FT OVER THE S COASTAL WATERS ON WED AND A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED. AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL
AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. EXPECT SW WINDS GUSTING TO 25
KT AND SEAS UP TO 6-8 FT...HIGHEST ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS. VSBYS
LOWERED IN PATCHY FOG ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

THURSDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. APPROACHING COLD FRONT
WILL KEEP SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA WINDS AND SEAS IN PLACE. EXPECT LOW
VSBYS IN HEAVY SHOWERS...PATCHY FOG. SCT THUNDER AS WELL. WINDS
MAY SHIFT TO W-NW ACROSS THE WESTERN WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO
CLEAR THE WATERS...SO EXPECT SW WINDS IN PLACE FOR A PORTION OF
THE DAY BEFORE SHIFTING TO W-NW ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SEAS WILL REMAIN ABOVE
SMALL CRAFT FOR MOST OF THE WEEKEND ESPECIALLY ON THE OUTER
WATERS. NW GUSTS MAY APPROACH 25 KT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/EVT
NEAR TERM...BELK/KJC/EVT
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...BELK/KJC/EVT
MARINE...KJC/EVT

000
FXUS61 KALY 220114
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
914 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. SOME OF THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE
STRONG TO SEVERE THIS EVENING AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE REGION ON THURSDAY...AND MOVE EAST OF THE REGION ON
FRIDAY WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FOR THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #203 HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL
MIDNIGHT FOR EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...

ADDITIONAL CONVECTION...STRONG TO SEVERE...IS MOVING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH BOWING SEGMENTS. THE ALBANY 00Z SOUNDING HAS
MOST UNSTABLE CAPE OF 1800 J/KG AND THE 850-500 MB LAPSE RATE OF
7.2 C/KM. SPC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO HAVE THE BEST 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
THE HIGHEST INSTABILITY ACROSS THE SOUTH. MAJORITY OF REPORTS
EARLIER TODAY WHERE HAIL AND THIS EVENING WE HAVE HAD WIND AND
HAIL REPORTS.

AS 415 PM EDT...IMPRESSIVE LARGE HAIL PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE CAPITAL REGION...AND POINTS JUST TO THE
SOUTH. THE CELLS HAVE EXHIBITED HAIL MONSTER LIKE CHARACTERISTICS
WITH SOME ELEVATED HAIL CORES /> 50 DBZS/ WAY ABOVE THE -20C
HEIGHT. IN SOME CASES...EXCEEDING 40 KFT AGL !!!

A QUICK MESOANALYIS SHOWS A WEAK SFC LOW/MESO LOW IS MOVING
ACROSS THE CNTRL PORTION OF THE FCST AREA...WITH THE WINDS TO THE
NORTHEAST AT KGFL...AND S/SW AT KPOU...AND SE WINDS OVER ALY. THE FCST
AREA GOT INTO A WELL DEFINED WARM SECTOR...WHERE TEMPS SOARED INTO
THE MID AND U80S...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION/MOHAWK
VALLEY SOUTHWARD. A FEW 90S HAVE OCCURRED IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY. THE FRONT LOOKS LIKE IT IS JUST CLIPPING THE DACKS...LAKE
GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...AND S-CNTRL VT.

SFC DEWPTS HAVE RISEN INTO THE MID AND U60S OVER A LARGE PORTION
OF THE FCST AREA. THE LATEST SPC MESO ANALYSIS PAGE INDICATES SBCAPES
HAVE REACHED 2000-3500+ J/KG FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND
EAST...AND LESS INSTABILITY NORTHWARD /1000-2000 J/KG/. THE 0-6 KM
BULK SHEAR ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE IN THE SRN ZONES /BASICALLY
SOUTH OF ALY/ WITH LESS THAN 30 KTS...BUT TO THE NORTH THE SHEAR
VALUES ARE 30-40 KTS. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE APPROACHING THE
6.5 C/KM RANGE. THE CONVECTION SEEMS TO REFIRING ON THE AXIS OF
2000+ J/KG SBCAPE VALUES...AND THE RIM OF THE 30 KT SHEAR VALUES.

THE LATEST MAGLENTA INDEX INDICATES A MAJOR SEVERE EVENT /HINGING
ON THE LARGE CAPE VALUES/.

CAPE=2000 J/KG (APPROX)
MAX SOUNDING WIND=40 KTS
EHI=0.5
STORM SPEED=20
KTS SRH=125

THE SVR CONVECTION SHOULD SIMMER DOWN EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT THE
APPROACHING SHORT-WAVE FROM EXTREME SE ONTARIO...AND NRN LAKE
ONTARIO WILL IMPACT OUR NRN ZONES BTWN BTWN 7 PM-10 PM. THE
INSTABILITY WILL BE WANING...AND WE KEPT GUSTY WINDS IN THE
FORECAST. POPS WERE RAISED TO CATEGORICAL AND HIGH LIKELY
VALUES...AND LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY COULD GET SOME
DECENT RAINFALL. THE BEST LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT SETS UP IN THESE AREAS. THE SHOWALTER VALUES ARE STILL BELOW
0C...SO SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE A ROUND...SO WE WILL
KEEP A CHANCE OF THUNDER IN.

OVERNIGHT MINS WILL BE ON THE MURKY SIDE WITH TEMPS IN THE U50S TO
M60S FOR LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE SFC BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT
AGAIN...AND THE FCST AREA GETS BACK INTO THE WARM SECTOR. ANOTHER
SHORT-WAVE WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES IN THE MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON. SBCAPES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE 1000-2500 J/KG
AGAIN OVER THE SRN TWO THIRDS OF THE FCST AREA WITH 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES ONLY 25-30 KTS OR SO PRIOR TO 00Z...BUT THEN THEY
INCREASE BTWN 00Z-06Z BASED ON THE NAM/GFS. THE LAPSE RATES DON/T
STEEPEN TO 6.5C/KM UNTIL AROUND 00Z TOO. OUR THINKING IS FOR A
LATER CONVECTIVE EVENT TOMORROW IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. SPC HAS MOST OF THE AREA OUTLOOKED /EXCEPT WRN NEW
ENGLAND/. HAVE DECIDED TO USE ENHANCED WORDING FOR SOME STORMS MAY
BE SEVERE IN THE AFTERNOON UNTIL MIDNIGHT. THE GUIDANCE USUALLY
STRUGGLES WITH PREFRONTAL TROUGHS...AND ONE LOOKS POSSIBLE LATE
TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
CONVECTION. PWATS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN A FEW STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL WITH VALUES OF 1.25-1.75"...AND SFC DEWPTS WILL BE IN
THE 60S AGAIN. SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
CONVECTION. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT TOMORROWS SEVERE THREAT.
OUR LOCAL WRF INDICATES A SQUALL LINE MAY BE MOVING ACROSS W-CNTRL
NY BY 00Z/THU IN THE 3KM BASE REF. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED. HIGHS TOMORROW IN THE U70S TO L80S OVER THE MTNS...AND
M80S TO U80S IN THE VALLEYS. LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 60S WED
NIGHT WITH SULTRY SUMMERLIKE CONDITIONS.

THU-THU NIGHT...TRICKY FORECAST FOR STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION ON
THU WITH THE COLD FRONT STILL TO THE WEST. THE BETTER JET DYNAMICS
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH APPRECIABLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN
PLACE. THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH HEATING OCCURS WITH CLOUD
COVER BEING AND ISSUE. LOCATIONS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH
AND EAST MAY HAVE THE BEST CHC FOR DESTABILIZATION AND SEVERE
WEATHER. NO SPC OUTLOOK YET...BUT DEFINITELY COULD SEE ONE LATER
FOR PARTS OF THE REGION.  WILL MENTION SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON THU. THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH SLOWLY...WITH SHOWERS PERSISTING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. A
WEAK WAVE MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY TOO. THE COLD ADVECTION WILL
SLOWLY SEEP INTO THE REGION WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO L60S BY
DAYBREAK FRI. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S ON THU.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COOLER AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. HAVE
FOLLOWED THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER`S GUIDANCE WHICH FAVORS THE
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH HAS THE SUPPORT OF THE GEFS MEANS. WPC
INDICATES THE DETERMINISTIC/OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND GFS
DEVIATE SIGNIFICANTLY ENOUGH FROM THE STEADIER MEANS THAT THEY WERE
NOT INCORPORATION INTO THEIR FORECAST.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION AS WE HEAD INTO
THE WEEKEND BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WILL HAVE
LINGER SHOWERS ON FRIDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFF THE
EAST. ON SATURDAY...THE REGION WILL BE UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW. THE
HIGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION AND OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT
WEEK. SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE COOLEST DAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S...AROUND 10 DEGREE BELOW NORMAL.
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST
WITH NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY.

THE GROWING SEASON IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...
GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...THE MOHAWK
VALLEY...EASTERN CATSKILLS...TACONICS...BERKSHIRES...BENNINGTON AND
EASTERN WINDHAM COUNTIES VT AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY. IT WILL START ON
MAY 25TH FOR THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN WINDHAM COUNTY.

AT THIS TIME...NIGHTTIME LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING AND
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40S IN THE
VALLEYS AND 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH THE EXPANSION OF
THE GROWING SEASON BY THIS TIME FROST ADVISORIES WOULD BE LIKELY
NEEDED FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS COULD BE COLDER WHICH WOULD LEAD TO THE NEED FOR A
FREEZE WARNING.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HAVE BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS REGION PROVIDING FOCUS FOR CONVECTION.
ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION...STRONG TO SEVERE...HAS MOVED INTO
THE AREA AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ALSO HAVE
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE IMPACTED THE MOST OVERNIGHT. BASED
TIMING OF CONVECTION THROUGH TAFS ON RADAR TRENDS. DO EXPECT A
LULL IN CONVECTION WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH RENEWED CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT
AGAIN...AND THE AREA GETS BACK INTO THE WARM SECTOR.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TONIGHT BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
WITH THE BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD A SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH IFR POSSIBLE. -SHRA/-TSRA BECOMING LIKELY.
THU...MVFR WITH IFR POSSIBLE. -SHRA/-TSRA LIKELY.
FRI...MAINLY VFR. CHC -SHRA.
SAT-SUN...VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH FRIDAY. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND LOWER TO 45 TO 60 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

TH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY LESS THAN 10 MPH TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...EXCEPT STRONGER GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO SERVICE AREAS PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5
DAYS. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS OF RAINFALL MAY OCCUR TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORMS. 3-HR ZONAL FFG
VALUES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 2.4-3.1 INCH RANGE AT THIS
TIME...WHICH ARE HIGH FOR MID TO LATE MAY.

DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
BASIN AVERAGE QPF WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE THIS WEEK. THE BEST
THREAT FOR SEEING SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE TONIGHT...AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT.

THE HIGHEST AREAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF
THE FCST AREA BASED ON THE LATEST NERFC QPF WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES
POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY MORNING OVER THE SRN DACKS...LAKE GEORGE
REGION...AND A THIRD OF AN INCH TO AN INCH SOUTH OF THESE
LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS CAN OCCUR WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE HUMID AIR MASS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA/NAS
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/WASULA

000
FXUS61 KOKX 220054
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
854 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR THE
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
ADVECTION FOG/STRATUS REMAINS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF EASTERN
SUFFOLK COUNTY. DENSE FOG ADVISORY THERE THROUGH 10 AM WED WILL BE
EXPANDED TO THE NORTH FORK OF LONG ISLAND AND COASTAL SE
CT...WHERE DENSE FOG SHOULD EXPAND OVERNIGHT. ALSO ADDED PATCHY
FOG TO THE REST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

KEPT LOW POP ACROSS SOUTHERN CT THIS EVENING FOR ANY CONVECTION
THAT MANAGES TO HOLD ON AS IT DROPS SE-WARD. OTHERWISE...ONLY AN
ISOLD SHOWER POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT OUT EAST.

WARM AND MUGGY OVERNIGHT WITH BLENDED MOS ACCEPTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
LOOKS LIKE A SIMILAR DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS RIDGE SLOWLY SHIFTS
EAST. MORNING FOG AND STRATUS WILL GIVE WAY TO AT LEAST PARTIAL
SUNSHINE. CONVECTION SHOULD BE SCATTERED AT BEST WITH ONLY MARGINAL
INSTABILITY IN PLACE...LESS THAN TODAY. HIGHS IN THE MID
80S...EXCEPT ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY TRANSLATES
EAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND THEN OFFSHORE BY THE WEEKEND.
INTERACTION WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE
POLAR JET ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL AMPLIFY THE TROUGH ACROSS THE
OH VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS AMPLIFICATION RESULTS IN
TIMING ISSUES AMONGST THE GLOBAL MODELS...WITH THE OPERATIONAL 12Z
GFS THE SLOWEST AT THE WESTERN END OF THE ENVELOPE. THE ECMWF AND
GGEM ARE THE QUICKEST WITH SWINGING THE FRONT ACROSS THE COAST BY
FRI MORNING. IN FACT...THE GFS CONTINUES TO BECOME MUCH SLOWER
THAN ALL THE GUIDANCE FRI INTO SAT AS THE UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF
APPROACHING THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...TAKING ON A NEGATIVE TILT
MUCH CLOSER TO THE COAST. THIS WOULD RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF POST-FRONTAL RAIN INTO SAT. PREFERENCE AT THIS TIME WAS TO LEAN
TOWARD THE FASTER MODEL CONSENSUS WITH PCPN SHUTTING DOWN FRI
AFT. SUBSEQUENT MODEL TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED TO
SEE IF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM SLOWS DOWN EVEN FURTHER.

AS FOR THE SENSIBLE WEATHER...COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
THU...PASSING ACROSS THE REGION THU NIGHT INTO FRI. HIGH PW
VALUES AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WORK WEST TO EAST
DURING THIS TIME. THE ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LOW AT THIS
TIME WITH THE LOW-LEVEL JET DISPLACED EAST OF THE AREA AND
MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR. UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES SUPPORT
SOME BOWING LINE SEGMENTS WITH GUSTY WINDS. WET-BULB ZERO VALUES ARE
WARM...SUPPORTING ONLY SMALL HAIL. THE MAIN THREAT LOOKS TO BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY IF THE UPPER FLOW
BACKS FURTHER WITH THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER TROF TO THE
WEST. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL SHOULD BE CLOSE TO AN INCH...WITH
LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS.

A DRIER NW FLOW SET UPS FRI NIGHT WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

STRATUS AND FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING AFTER 03Z WITH
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES BECOMING IFR AND AS LOW AS VLIFR AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS ESPECIALLY AFTER 07Z. CONDITIONS IMPROVE EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...13Z TO 15Z. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT AND CONDITIONS
UNCERTAIN. WIND WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT THEN
INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT DURING WEDNESDAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 16Z MAINLY NORTH
AND WEST OF THE NEW YORK TERMINALS.


     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOP AFTER 05Z...MAY BE AN
HOUR OR SO SOONER. CONDITIONS IMPROVE AFTER 13Z. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AFTER 19Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOP AFTER 08Z...MAY BE AN
HOUR OR SO SOONER. CONDITIONS IMPROVE AFTER 13Z. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AFTER 19Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOP AFTER 09Z...MAY BE AN
HOUR OR SO SOONER. CONDITIONS IMPROVE AFTER 13Z. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AFTER 19Z.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOP AFTER 09Z...MAY BE AN
HOUR OR SO SOONER. CONDITIONS IMPROVE AFTER 13Z. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AFTER 17Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOP AFTER 06Z...MAY BE AN
HOUR OR SO SOONER. CONDITIONS IMPROVE AFTER 13Z. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AFTER 17Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOP AFTER 03Z...MAY BE AN
HOUR OR SO SOONER. CONDITIONS IMPROVE AFTER 14Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SCT SHRA AND TSTMS POSSIBLE. IFR POSSIBLE IN FOG
AND STRATUS.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...NUMEROUS SHRA AND TSTMS POSSIBLE. IFR POSSIBLE IN
FOG AND STRATUS.
.SATURDAY...RESIDUAL SHRA BEHIND A COLD FRONT WITH MVFR. BECOMING VFR
WITH NW WINDS INCREASING TO 20-30KT.
.SUNDAY...VFR WITH NW WINDS 20-25KT.

&&

.MARINE...
DENSE FOG ACROSS THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS...MAINLY NEAR SHORE...AND
THE EASTERN GREAT SOUTH BAY. THIS ADVECTION FOG IS EXPECTED TO
EXPAND BACK WEST OVERNIGHT.

SOUTH SOUTHWEST SUB SCA WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SEAS SHOULD SLOWLY BUILD WEDNESDAY...BUT HAVE UNDERCUT WAVEWATCH
TO PREVENT REACHING SCA CRITERIA UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THINKING
WITH STRONG INVERSION THAT WIND FORCING WAS OVERDONE IN THE WW3
FORECAST.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WATERS FRIDAY MORNING...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS COULD BE BELOW
SCA LEVELS BY FRIDAY MORNING...WITH SEAS ON THE OCEAN REMAINING
ABOVE SCA CRITERIA THROUGH MUCH SATURDAY MORNING. UNDERCUT
WAVEWATCH BY A FOOT DURING THIS TIME AS IT WAS SLOWER BRINGING THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS THOUGH SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE SEAS DUE TO THE TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODELS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS WED WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...WITH THE BEST CHANCES NORTH/WEST OF NYC. TOTAL BASIN
AVG QPF FOR WED-THU COULD BE 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMTS IN TSTMS.

A MORE ORGANIZED EVENT LATE THU INTO FRI SHOULD PRODUCE AVERAGE
BASIN RAINFALL AMOUNTS CLOSE TO AN INCH...WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER
AMOUNTS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING OF THUNDERSTORMS
WHICH COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ011-012.
NY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ079.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ081.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ330-340.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ345-350-
     353.

&&

$$

000
FXUS61 KALY 220021
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
821 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. SOME OF THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE
STRONG TO SEVERE EARLY THIS EVENING AND TOMORROW. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON THURSDAY...AND MOVE EAST OF THE REGION
ON FRIDAY WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FOR THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 9 PM EDT FOR EASTERN NEW YORK AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...

ADDITIONAL CONVECTION...STRONG TO SEVERE...HAS MOVED INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. PLUS CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP.

AS 415 PM EDT...IMPRESSIVE LARGE HAIL PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE CAPITAL REGION...AND POINTS JUST TO THE
SOUTH. THE CELLS HAVE EXHIBITED HAIL MONSTER LIKE CHARACTERISTICS
WITH SOME ELEVATED HAIL CORES /> 50 DBZS/ WAY ABOVE THE -20C
HEIGHT. IN SOME CASES...EXCEEDING 40 KFT AGL !!!

A QUICK MESOANALYIS SHOWS A WEAK SFC LOW/MESO LOW IS MOVING
ACROSS THE CNTRL PORTION OF THE FCST AREA...WITH THE WINDS TO THE
NORTHEAST AT KGFL...AND S/SW AT KPOU...AND SE WINDS OVER ALY. THE FCST
AREA GOT INTO A WELL DEFINED WARM SECTOR...WHERE TEMPS SOARED INTO
THE MID AND U80S...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION/MOHAWK
VALLEY SOUTHWARD. A FEW 90S HAVE OCCURRED IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY. THE FRONT LOOKS LIKE IT IS JUST CLIPPING THE DACKS...LAKE
GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...AND S-CNTRL VT.

SFC DEWPTS HAVE RISEN INTO THE MID AND U60S OVER A LARGE PORTION
OF THE FCST AREA. THE LATEST SPC MESO ANALYSIS PAGE INDICATES SBCAPES
HAVE REACHED 2000-3500+ J/KG FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND
EAST...AND LESS INSTABILITY NORTHWARD /1000-2000 J/KG/. THE 0-6 KM
BULK SHEAR ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE IN THE SRN ZONES /BASICALLY
SOUTH OF ALY/ WITH LESS THAN 30 KTS...BUT TO THE NORTH THE SHEAR
VALUES ARE 30-40 KTS. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE APPROACHING THE
6.5 C/KM RANGE. THE CONVECTION SEEMS TO REFIRING ON THE AXIS OF
2000+ J/KG SBCAPE VALUES...AND THE RIM OF THE 30 KT SHEAR VALUES.

THE LATEST MAGLENTA INDEX INDICATES A MAJOR SEVERE EVENT /HINGING
ON THE LARGE CAPE VALUES/.

CAPE=2000 J/KG (APPROX)
MAX SOUNDING WIND=40 KTS
EHI=0.5
STORM SPEED=20
KTS SRH=125

THE SVR CONVECTION SHOULD SIMMER DOWN EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT THE
APPROACHING SHORT-WAVE FROM EXTREME SE ONTARIO...AND NRN LAKE
ONTARIO WILL IMPACT OUR NRN ZONES BTWN BTWN 7 PM-10 PM. THE
INSTABILITY WILL BE WANING...AND WE KEPT GUSTY WINDS IN THE
FORECAST. POPS WERE RAISED TO CATEGORICAL AND HIGH LIKELY
VALUES...AND LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY COULD GET SOME
DECENT RAINFALL. THE BEST LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT SETS UP IN THESE AREAS. THE SHOWALTER VALUES ARE STILL BELOW
0C...SO SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE A ROUND...SO WE WILL
KEEP A CHANCE OF THUNDER IN.

OVERNIGHT MINS WILL BE ON THE MURKY SIDE WITH TEMPS IN THE U50S TO
M60S FOR LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE SFC BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT
AGAIN...AND THE FCST AREA GETS BACK INTO THE WARM SECTOR. ANOTHER
SHORT-WAVE WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES IN THE MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON. SBCAPES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE 1000-2500 J/KG
AGAIN OVER THE SRN TWO THIRDS OF THE FCST AREA WITH 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES ONLY 25-30 KTS OR SO PRIOR TO 00Z...BUT THEN THEY
INCREASE BTWN 00Z-06Z BASED ON THE NAM/GFS. THE LAPSE RATES DON/T
STEEPEN TO 6.5C/KM UNTIL AROUND 00Z TOO. OUR THINKING IS FOR A
LATER CONVECTIVE EVENT TOMORROW IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. SPC HAS MOST OF THE AREA OUTLOOKED /EXCEPT WRN NEW
ENGLAND/. HAVE DECIDED TO USE ENHANCED WORDING FOR SOME STORMS MAY
BE SEVERE IN THE AFTERNOON UNTIL MIDNIGHT. THE GUIDANCE USUALLY
STRUGGLES WITH PREFRONTAL TROUGHS...AND ONE LOOKS POSSIBLE LATE
TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
CONVECTION. PWATS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN A FEW STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL WITH VALUES OF 1.25-1.75"...AND SFC DEWPTS WILL BE IN
THE 60S AGAIN. SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
CONVECTION. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT TOMORROWS SEVERE THREAT.
OUR LOCAL WRF INDICATES A SQUALL LINE MAY BE MOVING ACROSS W-CNTRL
NY BY 00Z/THU IN THE 3KM BASE REF. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED. HIGHS TOMORROW IN THE U70S TO L80S OVER THE MTNS...AND
M80S TO U80S IN THE VALLEYS. LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 60S WED
NIGHT WITH SULTRY SUMMERLIKE CONDITIONS.

THU-THU NIGHT...TRICKY FORECAST FOR STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION ON
THU WITH THE COLD FRONT STILL TO THE WEST. THE BETTER JET DYNAMICS
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH APPRECIABLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN
PLACE. THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH HEATING OCCURS WITH CLOUD
COVER BEING AND ISSUE. LOCATIONS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH
AND EAST MAY HAVE THE BEST CHC FOR DESTABILIZATION AND SEVERE
WEATHER. NO SPC OUTLOOK YET...BUT DEFINITELY COULD SEE ONE LATER
FOR PARTS OF THE REGION.  WILL MENTION SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON THU. THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH SLOWLY...WITH SHOWERS PERSISTING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. A
WEAK WAVE MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY TOO. THE COLD ADVECTION WILL
SLOWLY SEEP INTO THE REGION WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO L60S BY
DAYBREAK FRI. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S ON THU.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COOLER AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. HAVE
FOLLOWED THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER`S GUIDANCE WHICH FAVORS THE
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH HAS THE SUPPORT OF THE GEFS MEANS. WPC
INDICATES THE DETERMINISTIC/OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND GFS
DEVIATE SIGNIFICANTLY ENOUGH FROM THE STEADIER MEANS THAT THEY WERE
NOT INCORPORATION INTO THEIR FORECAST.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION AS WE HEAD INTO
THE WEEKEND BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WILL HAVE
LINGER SHOWERS ON FRIDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFF THE
EAST. ON SATURDAY...THE REGION WILL BE UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW. THE
HIGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION AND OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT
WEEK. SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE COOLEST DAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S...AROUND 10 DEGREE BELOW NORMAL.
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST
WITH NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY.

THE GROWING SEASON IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...
GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...THE MOHAWK
VALLEY...EASTERN CATSKILLS...TACONICS...BERKSHIRES...BENNINGTON AND
EASTERN WINDHAM COUNTIES VT AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY. IT WILL START ON
MAY 25TH FOR THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN WINDHAM COUNTY.

AT THIS TIME...NIGHTTIME LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING AND
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40S IN THE
VALLEYS AND 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH THE EXPANSION OF
THE GROWING SEASON BY THIS TIME FROST ADVISORIES WOULD BE LIKELY
NEEDED FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS COULD BE COLDER WHICH WOULD LEAD TO THE NEED FOR A
FREEZE WARNING.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HAVE BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS REGION PROVIDING FOCUS FOR CONVECTION.
ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION...STRONG TO SEVERE...HAS MOVED INTO
THE AREA AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ALSO HAVE
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE IMPACTED THE MOST OVERNIGHT. BASED
TIMING OF CONVECTION THROUGH TAFS ON RADAR TRENDS. DO EXPECT A
LULL IN CONVECTION WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH RENEWED CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT
AGAIN...AND THE AREA GETS BACK INTO THE WARM SECTOR.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TONIGHT BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
WITH THE BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD A SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH IFR POSSIBLE. -SHRA/-TSRA BECOMING LIKELY.
THU...MVFR WITH IFR POSSIBLE. -SHRA/-TSRA LIKELY.
FRI...MAINLY VFR. CHC -SHRA.
SAT-SUN...VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH FRIDAY. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND LOWER TO 45 TO 60 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

TH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY LESS THAN 10 MPH TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...EXCEPT STRONGER GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO SERVICE AREAS PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5
DAYS. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS OF RAINFALL MAY OCCUR TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORMS. 3-HR ZONAL FFG
VALUES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 2.4-3.1 INCH RANGE AT THIS
TIME...WHICH ARE HIGH FOR MID TO LATE MAY.

DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
BASIN AVERAGE QPF WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE THIS WEEK. THE BEST
THREAT FOR SEEING SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE TONIGHT...AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT.

THE HIGHEST AREAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF
THE FCST AREA BASED ON THE LATEST NERFC QPF WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES
POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY MORNING OVER THE SRN DACKS...LAKE GEORGE
REGION...AND A THIRD OF AN INCH TO AN INCH SOUTH OF THESE
LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS CAN OCCUR WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE HUMID AIR MASS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA/NAS
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/WASULA

000
FXUS61 KBOX 220013
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
813 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS SNE TONIGHT BEFORE LIFTING
TO THE NORTH WEDNESDAY. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
800 PM UPDATE...
AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS STARTING TO SHOW SIGNS OF WEAKENING AT 00Z.
SHOULD SEE MOST CONVECTION WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
HOWEVER...CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW ELEVATED SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH THE
UNSTABLE AIR ALOFT THROUGH THE NIGHT.

HAVE UPDATED GRIDS TO BRING CONDITIONS CURRENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD SHOULD BE DRY. THE BACKDOOR FRONT
MAY MAKE IT TO THE CT VALLEY LATER TONIGHT BEFORE STALLING. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO REDEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT...
ESPECIALLY IN THE COASTAL PLAIN AND A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED AGAIN. MIN TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S WITH LOWER 60S
IN THE LOWER CT VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
BACKDOOR FRONT WILL MOVE/JUMP TO THE NORTH ON WED AS LOW LEVEL SW
FLOW MIXES DOWN TO THE SURFACE. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL ERODE AS
SW FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED...BUT THE LOW CLOUDS/FOG MAY LINGER
MOST OF THE DAY OVER THE ISLANDS AND ESPECIALLY ACK. 850 MB TEMPS
15-16C SO IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID DAY WITH TEMPS WELL
INTO THE 80S AWAY FROM THE S COAST AND POSSIBLY A FEW LOCATIONS
NEARING 90 IN THE INTERIOR VALLEYS.

CONVECTION WILL BE A CONCERN ONCE AGAIN WED AFTERNOON AS
ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. HIGHEST MLCAPES 1000-2000 J/KG WILL BE
FOCUSED MOSTLY WEST OF I95 AS SW FLOW WILL ACT TO STABILIZE THE
COASTAL PLAIN. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS A BIT WEAKER WED AND MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE MARGINAL...BUT MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY SUGGESTS
SCT STORMS WILL DEVELOP AND CANT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS IN THE INTERIOR.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
* COOLER AND LESS HUMID FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
  WEEK

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

MEDIUM RANGE OPERATIONAL MODEL SUITE SIGNALING AN AMPLIFIED...
SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ACROSS THE LOWER 48. AT THE START...
NOTING LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN
LAKES THOUGH SOME DIFFERENCES IN POSITIONING...ALONG WITH H5
CUTOFF LOW MOVING INTO THE WEST COAST. LOWER THAN AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
OPERATIONAL SUITE...THOUGH GENERAL SURFACE SYSTEM POSITIONS AND
TIMING SIGNALS THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND SEEM FAIRLY GOOD.
BETTER CONTINUITY AMONGST THE MODEL ENSEMBLES...SO LEANED CLOSER
TO THOSE BUT DID INCORPORATE A LITTLE OF THE 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF
INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF THE LONG TERM /WED NIGHT TO FRI/.

ANTICIPATE SLOW BUT STEADY CHANGE TO THE UPPER PATTERN LATE THIS
WEEK AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. FRI-SAT. THIS
WILL BRING AIRMASS CHANGE AS UPPER WINDS SHIFT TO NW...BRINGING
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE CONTINUES FOR THE THU-FRI
TIMEFRAME WITH PERIODIC PRECIP AND SCATTERED CONVECTION...THEN
COLD FRONT SHOULD SWEEP THROUGH FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE BEYOND FRIDAY AS MAY SEE SOME TIMING ISSUES WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH SOMETIME SAT. FEW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE...BUT TIMING IS DIFFICULT. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS THIS WEEKEND
TO RUN UP TO 5 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMS. DOES LOOK TO BE DRY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH CLOSE TO SEASONABLE TEMPS.

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BROAD UPPER RIDGING STARTS TO BREAK DOWN...
WHILE STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. MAY SEE WEAK WAVE MOVING ON THIS FRONT...WHICH COULD
BRING SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS FAR INTERIOR AREAS OF S NH/W MA/N
CENTRAL CT. KEPT CHANCE POPS GOING THERE. WITH SW FLOW IN
PLACE...EXPECT WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE
LOWER-MID 60S...EXCEPT THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.

THURSDAY...H5 TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH WITH ITS ASSOCIATED
SURFACE COLD FRONT. RATHER AMPLIFIED UPPER SYSTEM...SO COLD FRONT
WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE ACROSS.

WILL REMAIN WELL IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON
THURSDAY...SO EXPECT ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS. VERY HUMID
AIRMASS IN PLACE AS WELL...WITH PW VALUES AROUND 1.7 INCHES. WILL
LIKELY SEE SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH SOME SHOWERS...ALONG WITH HAIL
AND GUSTY WINDS. MAY NOT QUITE REACH SEVERE THRESHOLDS AS CLOUDS
WILL BE MORE PREVALENT.  EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY TO REACH THE MID
AND UPPER 70S...THOUGH A FEW SPOTS MAY REACH 80 IF THE SUN BREAKS
THROUGH. WILL ALSO SEE GUSTY SW WINDS...UP TO 20-25 KT DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

TIMING OF COLD FRONT IS STILL IN QUESTION...THOUGH APPEARS IT
SHOULD SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION THU NIGHT...MAY REACH THE COAST BY
12Z FRI. HAVE CARRIED LIKELY TO CAT POPS AS COLD FRONT PASSES.
LOOKS LIKE BEST INSTABILITY MAY PASS E OVERNIGHT...BUT COULD STILL
SEE SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION SO KEPT SCT THUNDER IN THE FORECAST.
TEMPS DO START DROPPING BACK TO THE LOWER-MID 50S LATE ACROSS FAR
INTERIOR AREAS.

FRIDAY...COLD FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE E COAST DURING THE MORNING
BUT SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO MID MORNING ACROSS E MA.
OTHERWISE... EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE THOUGH IT WILL BE
NOTICEABLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BLOCKING UPPER PATTERN CONTINUES
ACROSS LABRADOR INTO GREENLAND THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME...WHICH WILL
KEEP HIGH PRES BUILDING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA DOWN THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. LONG RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. EXPECT DRY AND COOL
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ON
SATURDAY...EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S...RUNNING 4 TO 8
DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMS...THOUGH WILL MODIFY A BIT THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THIS TIMEFRAME.

DUE TO SEVERE WEATHER WATCH THIS AFTERNOON...KEPT PREVIOUS FORECAST
GOING FROM SUNDAY ONWARD...BUT LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

OVERVIEW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE OF
STRATUS AND FOG THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

OVERNIGHT...EXPECT SCT CONVECTION TO WEAKEN BY AROUND 03Z AS LOW
CLOUDS/FOG MOVE ONSHORE BEHIND BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. WILL SEE
WIDESPREAD IFR- LIFR CIGS/VSBYS MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
AREAS WITH MVFR- IFR ACROSS THE CT VALLEY.

WEDNESDAY...EXPECT MVFR-LIFR CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO
VFR 14-16Z AS SW WINDS DEVELOP...BUT IFR MAY PERSIST MOST OF THE
DAY AT ACK.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING. IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL REDEVELOP...POSSIBLY AS SOON AS
LATE AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT CONDITIONS LOWER TO IFR
TONIGHT. EXACT TIMING UNCERTAIN.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT VARIABLE
CONDITIONS DEPENDING UPON SHOWER AND FOG DEVELOPMENT. BETTER SHOT
FOR IFR VSBYS IN FOG ALONG S COAST ON S-SW WINDS AND MILD TEMPS
MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION
THOUGH BEST SHOT ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS...WITH MVFR-IFR
CIGS/VSBYS. MAY SEE LOCAL HEAVY DOWNPOURS. LOW CONFIDENCE ON
TIMING AND PLACEMENT.

THURSDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VERY UNSETTLED PATTERN
AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. VARIABLE CONDITIONS BETWEEN VFR
AND MVFR/IFR IN SHRA/TSRA/PATCHY FOG. COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION THU NIGHT...SO WILL SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN
AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT THU NIGHT...THEN INTO CENTRAL SECTIONS AFTER
06Z-07Z. MAY SEE SW WIND GUSTING UP TO 20-25 KT DURING THE DAY AS
WELL. WINDS SHIFT TO W-NW ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAY SEE LEFTOVER POCKETS OF
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE ACROSS E MA THROUGH 14Z-15Z FRI.
OTHERWISE...VFR.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
THROUGH WED. INCREASING SW FLOW WILL RESULT IN SEAS BUILDING OVER
THE S COASTAL WATERS. LEANED MORE HEAVILY ON THE SWAN GUIDANCE FOR
SEAS FORECAST AS THE WNAWAVE GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE TOO HIGH. SEAS
COULD BUILD TO 5 FT OVER THE S COASTAL WATERS ON WED AND A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED. AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL
AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. EXPECT SW WINDS GUSTING TO 25
KT AND SEAS UP TO 6-8 FT...HIGHEST ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS. VSBYS
LOWERED IN PATCHY FOG ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

THURSDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. APPROACHING COLD FRONT
WILL KEEP SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA WINDS AND SEAS IN PLACE. EXPECT LOW
VSBYS IN HEAVY SHOWERS...PATCHY FOG. SCT THUNDER AS WELL. WINDS
MAY SHIFT TO W-NW ACROSS THE WESTERN WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO
CLEAR THE WATERS...SO EXPECT SW WINDS IN PLACE FOR A PORTION OF
THE DAY BEFORE SHIFTING TO W-NW ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SEAS WILL REMAIN ABOVE
SMALL CRAFT FOR MOST OF THE WEEKEND ESPECIALLY ON THE OUTER
WATERS. NW GUSTS MAY APPROACH 25 KT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/EVT
NEAR TERM...KJC/EVT
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...KJC/EVT
MARINE...KJC/EVT

000
FXUS61 KOKX 212357
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
757 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
ADVECTION FOG/STRATUS REMAINS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF EASTERN SUFFOLK
COUNTY. DENSE FOG ADVISORY THERE THROUGH 10 AM WED...THOUGH THIS
WILL LIKELY NEED EXPANDING AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. CONFIDENCE ON
THIS THOUGH IS NOT THAT HIGH AT THIS TIME TO WARRANT EXPANSION.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPS NEAR 90 AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE...
INSTABILITY IS MAXIMIZED. THE LACK OF A TRIGGER AWAY FROM THE
FRONT HAS KEPT CONVECTION LIMITED. HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR THIS
EVENING AND KEPT IT CONFINED TO THE INTERIOR AS A RESULT. EVEN
THESE POPS MAY BE OVER DONE. WITH THE LACK OF MORE EXTENSIVE
CONVECTIVE INITIATION SO FAR...HAVE DROPPED MENTION OF CONVECTION
THIS EVENING IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

WARM AND MUGGY OVERNIGHT WITH BLENDED MOS ACCEPTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
LOOKS LIKE A SIMILAR DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS RIDGE SLOWLY SHIFTS
EAST. MORNING FOG AND STRATUS WILL GIVE WAY TO AT LEAST PARTIAL
SUNSHINE. CONVECTION SHOULD BE SCATTERED AT BEST WITH ONLY MARGINAL
INSTABILITY IN PLACE...LESS THAN TODAY. HIGHS IN THE MID
80S...EXCEPT ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY TRANSLATES
EAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND THEN OFFSHORE BY THE WEEKEND.
INTERACTION WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE
POLAR JET ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL AMPLIFY THE TROUGH ACROSS THE
OH VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS AMPLIFICATION RESULTS IN
TIMING ISSUES AMONGST THE GLOBAL MODELS...WITH THE OPERATIONAL 12Z
GFS THE SLOWEST AT THE WESTERN END OF THE ENVELOPE. THE ECMWF AND
GGEM ARE THE QUICKEST WITH SWINGING THE FRONT ACROSS THE COAST BY
FRI MORNING. IN FACT...THE GFS CONTINUES TO BECOME MUCH SLOWER
THAN ALL THE GUIDANCE FRI INTO SAT AS THE UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF
APPROACHING THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...TAKING ON A NEGATIVE TILT
MUCH CLOSER TO THE COAST. THIS WOULD RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF POST-FRONTAL RAIN INTO SAT. PREFERENCE AT THIS TIME WAS TO LEAN
TOWARD THE FASTER MODEL CONSENSUS WITH PCPN SHUTTING DOWN FRI
AFT. SUBSEQUENT MODEL TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED TO
SEE IF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM SLOWS DOWN EVEN FURTHER.

AS FOR THE SENSIBLE WEATHER...COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
THU...PASSING ACROSS THE REGION THU NIGHT INTO FRI. HIGH PW
VALUES AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WORK WEST TO EAST
DURING THIS TIME. THE ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LOW AT THIS
TIME WITH THE LOW-LEVEL JET DISPLACED EAST OF THE AREA AND
MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR. UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES SUPPORT
SOME BOWING LINE SEGMENTS WITH GUSTY WINDS. WET-BULB ZERO VALUES ARE
WARM...SUPPORTING ONLY SMALL HAIL. THE MAIN THREAT LOOKS TO BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY IF THE UPPER FLOW
BACKS FURTHER WITH THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER TROF TO THE
WEST. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL SHOULD BE CLOSE TO AN INCH...WITH
LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS.

A DRIER NW FLOW SET UPS FRI NIGHT WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

STRATUS AND FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING AFTER 03Z WITH
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES BECOMING IFR AND AS LOW AS VLIFR AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS ESPECIALLY AFTER 07Z. CONDITIONS IMPROVE EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...13Z TO 15Z. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT AND CONDITIONS
UNCERTAIN. WIND WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT THEN
INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT DURING WEDNESDAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 16Z MAINLY NORTH
AND WEST OF THE NEW YORK TERMINALS.


     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOP AFTER 05Z...MAY BE AN
HOUR OR SO SOONER. CONDITIONS IMPROVE AFTER 13Z. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AFTER 19Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOP AFTER 08Z...MAY BE AN
HOUR OR SO SOONER. CONDITIONS IMPROVE AFTER 13Z. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AFTER 19Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOP AFTER 09Z...MAY BE AN
HOUR OR SO SOONER. CONDITIONS IMPROVE AFTER 13Z. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AFTER 19Z.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOP AFTER 09Z...MAY BE AN
HOUR OR SO SOONER. CONDITIONS IMPROVE AFTER 13Z. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AFTER 17Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOP AFTER 06Z...MAY BE AN
HOUR OR SO SOONER. CONDITIONS IMPROVE AFTER 13Z. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AFTER 17Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOP AFTER 03Z...MAY BE AN
HOUR OR SO SOONER. CONDITIONS IMPROVE AFTER 14Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SCT SHRA AND TSTMS POSSIBLE. IFR POSSIBLE IN FOG
AND STRATUS.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...NUMEROUS SHRA AND TSTMS POSSIBLE. IFR POSSIBLE IN
FOG AND STRATUS.
.SATURDAY...RESIDUAL SHRA BEHIND A COLD FRONT WITH MVFR. BECOMING VFR
WITH NW WINDS INCREASING TO 20-30KT.
.SUNDAY...VFR WITH NW WINDS 20-25KT.

&&

.MARINE...
DENSE FOG ACROSS THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS...MAINLY NEAR SHORE...AND
THE EASTERN GREAT SOUTH BAY. THIS ADVECTION FOG IS EXPECTED TO
EXPAND BACK WEST OVERNIGHT.

SOUTH SOUTHWEST SUB SCA WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SEAS SHOULD SLOWLY BUILD WEDNESDAY...BUT HAVE UNDERCUT WAVEWATCH
TO PREVENT REACHING SCA CRITERIA UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THINKING
WITH STRONG INVERSION THAT WIND FORCING WAS OVERDONE IN THE WW3
FORECAST.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WATERS FRIDAY MORNING...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS COULD BE BELOW
SCA LEVELS BY FRIDAY MORNING...WITH SEAS ON THE OCEAN REMAINING
ABOVE SCA CRITERIA THROUGH MUCH SATURDAY MORNING. UNDERCUT
WAVEWATCH BY A FOOT DURING THIS TIME AS IT WAS SLOWER BRINGING THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS THOUGH SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE SEAS DUE TO THE TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODELS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCT TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON THIS EVENING...MAINLY LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY. COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE LARGE ENOUGH TO PRESENT A
FLOOD TREAT.

SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS WED WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...WITH THE BEST CHANCES NORTH/WEST OF NYC. TOTAL BASIN
AVG QPF FOR WED-THU COULD BE 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMTS IN TSTMS.

A MORE ORGANIZED EVENT LATE THU INTO FRI SHOULD PRODUCE AVERAGE
BASIN RAINFALL AMOUNTS CLOSE TO AN INCH...WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER
AMOUNTS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING OF THUNDERSTORMS
WHICH COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ081.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ345-350-
     353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TONGUE
NEAR TERM...TONGUE
SHORT TERM...TONGUE
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...TONGUE/DW
HYDROLOGY...TONGUE/DW

000
FXUS61 KOKX 212048
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
448 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
ADVECTION FOG/STRATUS REMAINS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF EASTERN SUFFOLK
COUNTY. DENSE FOG ADVISORY THERE THROUGH 10 AM WED...THOUGH THIS
WILL LIKELY NEED EXPANDING AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. CONFIDENCE ON
THIS THOUGH IS NOT THAT HIGH AT THIS TIME TO WARRANT EXPANSION.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPS NEAR 90 AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE...
INSTABILITY IS MAXIMIZED. THE LACK OF A TRIGGER AWAY FROM THE
FRONT HAS KEPT CONVECTION LIMITED. HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR THIS
EVENING AND KEPT IT CONFINED TO THE INTERIOR AS A RESULT. EVEN
THESE POPS MAY BE OVER DONE. WITH THE LACK OF MORE EXTENSIVE
CONVECTIVE INITIATION SO FAR...HAVE DROPPED MENTION OF CONVECTION
THIS EVENING IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

WARM AND MUGGY OVERNIGHT WITH BLENDED MOS ACCEPTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
LOOKS LIKE A SIMILAR DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS RIDGE SLOWLY SHIFTS
EAST. MORNING FOG AND STRATUS WILL GIVE WAY TO AT LEAST PARTIAL
SUNSHINE. CONVECTION SHOULD BE SCATTERED AT BEST WITH ONLY MARGINAL
INSTABILITY IN PLACE...LESS THAN TODAY. HIGHS IN THE MID
80S...EXCEPT ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY TRANSLATES
EAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND THEN OFFSHORE BY THE WEEKEND.
INTERACTION WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE
POLAR JET ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL AMPLIFY THE TROUGH ACROSS THE
OH VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS AMPLIFICATION RESULTS IN
TIMING ISSUES AMONGST THE GLOBAL MODELS...WITH THE OPERATIONAL 12Z
GFS THE SLOWEST AT THE WESTERN END OF THE ENVELOPE. THE ECMWF AND
GGEM ARE THE QUICKEST WITH SWINGING THE FRONT ACROSS THE COAST BY
FRI MORNING. IN FACT...THE GFS CONTINUES TO BECOME MUCH SLOWER
THAN ALL THE GUIDANCE FRI INTO SAT AS THE UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF
APPROACHING THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...TAKING ON A NEGATIVE TILT
MUCH CLOSER TO THE COAST. THIS WOULD RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF POST-FRONTAL RAIN INTO SAT. PREFERENCE AT THIS TIME WAS TO LEAN
TOWARD THE FASTER MODEL CONSENSUS WITH PCPN SHUTTING DOWN FRI
AFT. SUBSEQUENT MODEL TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED TO
SEE IF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM SLOWS DOWN EVEN FURTHER.

AS FOR THE SENSIBLE WEATHER...COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
THU...PASSING ACROSS THE REGION THU NIGHT INTO FRI. HIGH PW
VALUES AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WORK WEST TO EAST
DURING THIS TIME. THE ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LOW AT THIS
TIME WITH THE LOW-LEVEL JET DISPLACED EAST OF THE AREA AND
MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR. UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES SUPPORT
SOME BOWING LINE SEGMENTS WITH GUSTY WINDS. WET-BULB ZERO VALUES ARE
WARM...SUPPORTING ONLY SMALL HAIL. THE MAIN THREAT LOOKS TO BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY IF THE UPPER FLOW
BACKS FURTHER WITH THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER TROF TO THE
WEST. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL SHOULD BE CLOSE TO AN INCH...WITH
LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS.

A DRIER NW FLOW SET UPS FRI NIGHT WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN N OF THE REGION THRU TNGT.

ISOLD-SCT TSTMS EXPECTED THIS AFTN AND EVE...MAINLY N AND W OF THE
CITY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY TSTMS WHICH FORM ACROSS NERN NJ
TO SLOWLY TRACK ESE TOWARDS THE CITY AND WEAKEN. THERE COULD BE
SOME DIRECT IMPACTS ESPECIALLY KTEB IF THIS OCCURS.
OTHERWISE...VFR WITH SLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.

IFR FOG SHOULD RETURN TNGT. ANY TSTMS COULD ALTER THE TIMING. LGT
SLY FLOW...VRB AT TIMES...CAN BE EXPECTED.

CONDITIONS WILL BE SLOWER TO IMPROVE ON WED. THINK IFR MOST AREAS
TIL AT LEAST 14-17Z. POTENTIAL FOR IFR OR MVFR TO REMAIN IN PLACE
ALL DAY ON THE COASTS WITH PERHAPS A FEW BREAKS.


     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: FOG MAY DEVELOP QUICKER THAN TAFS INDICATE
THIS EVE. TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN N OF THE TERMINAL THIS EVE
ATTM.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: ALTHOUGH TSTMS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO
REMAIN N OF THE TERMINAL THIS EVE...THERE IS A LOW PROB THAT A
WEAKENING TSTM COULD IMPACT THE TERMINAL.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: THERE IS A LOW PROB OF TSTMS INVOF THE
TERMINAL THIS EVE. MOST ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN N OF THE
ARPT.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: ALTHOUGH MOST TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN N
OF THE ARPT...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ACTIVITY INVOF THE ARPT
THIS AFTN AND EVE.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: ALTHOUGH MOST TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN N
OF THE ARPT...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ACTIVITY INVOF THE ARPT
THIS AFTN AND EVE.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: THE FOG MAY DEVELOP QUICKER THAN THE TAFS
INDICATE THIS EVE.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WED AFTN...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE COAST...VFR INTERIOR. SCT SHRA
AND TSTMS POSSIBLE.
.WED NIGHT...SCT SHRA AND TSTMS POSSIBLE. IFR POSSIBLE IN FOG AND
STRATUS.
.THU-FRI...NUMEROUS SHRA AND TSTMS POSSIBLE. IFR POSSIBLE IN FOG AND
STRATUS.
.SAT...RESIDUAL SHRA BEHIND A COLD FRONT WITH MVFR. BECOMING VFR
WITH NW WINDS INCREASING TO 20-30KT.
.SUN...VFR WITH NW WINDS 20-25KT.

&&

.MARINE...
DENSE FOG ACROSS THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS...MAINLY NEAR SHORE...AND
THE EASTERN GREAT SOUTH BAY. THIS ADVECTION FOG IS EXPECTED TO
EXPAND BACK WEST OVERNIGHT.

SOUTH SOUTHWEST SUB SCA WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SEAS SHOULD SLOWLY BUILD WEDNESDAY...BUT HAVE UNDERCUT WAVEWATCH
TO PREVENT REACHING SCA CRITERIA UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THINKING
WITH STRONG INVERSION THAT WIND FORCING WAS OVERDONE IN THE WW3
FORECAST.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WATERS FRIDAY MORNING...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS COULD BE BELOW
SCA LEVELS BY FRIDAY MORNING...WITH SEAS ON THE OCEAN REMAINING
ABOVE SCA CRITERIA THROUGH MUCH SATURDAY MORNING. UNDERCUT
WAVEWATCH BY A FOOT DURING THIS TIME AS IT WAS SLOWER BRINGING THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS THOUGH SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE SEAS DUE TO THE TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODELS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCT TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON THIS EVENING...MAINLY LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY. COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE LARGE ENOUGH TO PRESENT A
FLOOD TREAT.

SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS WED WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...WITH THE BEST CHANCES NORTH/WEST OF NYC. TOTAL BASIN
AVG QPF FOR WED-THU COULD BE 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMTS IN TSTMS.

A MORE ORGANIZED EVENT LATE THU INTO FRI SHOULD PRODUCE AVERAGE
BASIN RAINFALL AMOUNTS CLOSE TO AN INCH...WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER
AMOUNTS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING OF THUNDERSTORMS
WHICH COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ081.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ345-350-
     353.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TONGUE
NEAR TERM...TONGUE
SHORT TERM...TONGUE
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...TONGUE/DW
HYDROLOGY...TONGUE/DW

000
FXUS61 KBOX 212034
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
434 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS SNE TONIGHT BEFORE LIFTING
TO THE NORTH WEDNESDAY. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
BACKDOOR FRONT MOVING SW FROM E MA. LOTS OF CU HAVE DEVELOPED
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WITH WIDELY SCT CONVECTION ACROSS SNE WITH
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MOVING EWD FROM E NYS. ENVIRONMENT IS
RATHER UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES 2000+ J/KG ACROSS LOWER CT VALLEY
WITH DECREASING CAPES FURTHER E. EXPECT STORMS TO CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR...MAINLY CENTRAL AND W ZONES AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY AS ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR STORMS. AS BACKDOOR
FRONT CONTINUES PUSHING WEST...FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL
SHIFT TO THE CT VALLEY LATE AFTERNOON AND TOWARD EVENING. 0-6KM
SHEAR IN THE UNSTABLE AIR IS 25-30 KT WHICH IS MORE THAN ENOUGH
FOR STORM ORGANIZATION GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF CAPE. EXPECT A FEW
STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS INTO THIS EVENING.

TONIGHT...CONVECTION SHOULD WEAKEN THIS EVENING...BUT WITH
UNSTABLE AIR ALOFT PERSISTING AND BACKDOOR FRONT IN THE AREA CANT
RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM DURING THE NIGHT
ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD SHOULD BE DRY. THE BACKDOOR
FRONT MAY MAKE IT TO THE CT VALLEY LATER TONIGHT BEFORE STALLING.
EXPECT WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO REDEVELOP AGAIN
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE COASTAL PLAIN AND A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED AGAIN. MIN TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S
WITH LOWER 60S IN THE LOWER CT VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
BACKDOOR FRONT WILL MOVE/JUMP TO THE NORTH ON WED AS LOW LEVEL SW
FLOW MIXES DOWN TO THE SURFACE. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL ERODE AS
SW FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED...BUT THE LOW CLOUDS/FOG MAY LINGER
MOST OF THE DAY OVER THE ISLANDS AND ESPECIALLY ACK. 850 MB TEMPS
15-16C SO IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID DAY WITH TEMPS WELL
INTO THE 80S AWAY FROM THE S COAST AND POSSIBLY A FEW LOCATIONS
NEARING 90 IN THE INTERIOR VALLEYS.

CONVECTION WILL BE A CONCERN ONCE AGAIN WED AFTERNOON AS
ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. HIGHEST MLCAPES 1000-2000 J/KG WILL BE
FOCUSED MOSTLY WEST OF I95 AS SW FLOW WILL ACT TO STABILIZE THE
COASTAL PLAIN. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS A BIT WEAKER WED AND MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE MARGINAL...BUT MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY SUGGESTS
SCT STORMS WILL DEVELOP AND CANT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS IN THE INTERIOR.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
* COOLER AND LESS HUMID FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

MEDIUM RANGE OPERATIONAL MODEL SUITE SIGNALING AN AMPLIFIED...
SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ACROSS THE LOWER 48. AT THE START...
NOTING LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN
LAKES THOUGH SOME DIFFERENCES IN POSITIONING...ALONG WITH H5
CUTOFF LOW MOVING INTO THE WEST COAST. LOWER THAN AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
OPERATIONAL SUITE...THOUGH GENERAL SURFACE SYSTEM POSITIONS AND
TIMING SIGNALS THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND SEEM FAIRLY GOOD.
BETTER CONTINUITY AMONGST THE MODEL ENSEMBLES...SO LEANED CLOSER
TO THOSE BUT DID INCORPORATE A LITTLE OF THE 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF
INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF THE LONG TERM /WED NIGHT TO FRI/.

ANTICIPATE SLOW BUT STEADY CHANGE TO THE UPPER PATTERN LATE THIS
WEEK AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. FRI-SAT. THIS
WILL BRING AIRMASS CHANGE AS UPPER WINDS SHIFT TO NW...BRINGING
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE CONTINUES FOR THE THU-FRI
TIMEFRAME WITH PERIODIC PRECIP AND SCATTERED CONVECTION...THEN
COLD FRONT SHOULD SWEEP THROUGH FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE BEYOND FRIDAY AS MAY SEE SOME TIMING ISSUES WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH SOMETIME SAT. FEW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE...BUT TIMING IS DIFFICULT. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS THIS WEEKEND
TO RUN UP TO 5 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMS. DOES LOOK TO BE DRY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH CLOSE TO SEASONABLE TEMPS.

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BROAD UPPER RIDGING STARTS TO BREAK DOWN...
WHILE STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. MAY SEE WEAK WAVE MOVING ON THIS FRONT...WHICH COULD
BRING SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS FAR INTERIOR AREAS OF S NH/W MA/N
CENTRAL CT. KEPT CHANCE POPS GOING THERE. WITH SW FLOW IN
PLACE...EXPECT WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE
LOWER-MID 60S...EXCEPT THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.

THURSDAY...H5 TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH WITH ITS ASSOCIATED
SURFACE COLD FRONT. RATHER AMPLIFIED UPPER SYSTEM...SO COLD FRONT
WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE ACROSS.

WILL REMAIN WELL IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON
THURSDAY...SO EXPECT ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS. VERY HUMID
AIRMASS IN PLACE AS WELL...WITH PW VALUES AROUND 1.7 INCHES. WILL
LIKELY SEE SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH SOME SHOWERS...ALONG WITH HAIL
AND GUSTY WINDS. MAY NOT QUITE REACH SEVERE THRESHOLDS AS CLOUDS
WILL BE MORE PREVALENT.  EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY TO REACH THE MID
AND UPPER 70S...THOUGH A FEW SPOTS MAY REACH 80 IF THE SUN BREAKS
THROUGH. WILL ALSO SEE GUSTY SW WINDS...UP TO 20-25 KT DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

TIMING OF COLD FRONT IS STILL IN QUESTION...THOUGH APPEARS IT
SHOULD SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION THU NIGHT...MAY REACH THE COAST BY
12Z FRI. HAVE CARRIED LIKELY TO CAT POPS AS COLD FRONT PASSES.
LOOKS LIKE BEST INSTABILITY MAY PASS E OVERNIGHT...BUT COULD STILL
SEE SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION SO KEPT SCT THUNDER IN THE FORECAST.
TEMPS DO START DROPPING BACK TO THE LOWER-MID 50S LATE ACROSS FAR
INTERIOR AREAS.

FRIDAY...COLD FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE E COAST DURING THE MORNING
BUT SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO MID MORNING ACROSS E MA.
OTHERWISE... EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE THOUGH IT WILL BE
NOTICEABLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BLOCKING UPPER PATTERN CONTINUES
ACROSS LABRADOR INTO GREENLAND THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME...WHICH WILL
KEEP HIGH PRES BUILDING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA DOWN THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. LONG RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. EXPECT DRY AND COOL
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ON
SATURDAY...EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S...RUNNING 4 TO 8
DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMS...THOUGH WILL MODIFY A BIT THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THIS TIMEFRAME.

DUE TO SEVERE WEATHER WATCH THIS AFTERNOON...KEPT PREVIOUS FORECAST
GOING FROM SUNDAY ONWARD...BUT LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

OVERVIEW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE OF
STRATUS AND FOG THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH
IFR PERSISTING AT ACK AND STRATUS/PATCHY FOG ACROSS NE MA TO BOS
HARBOR. EXPECT THE IFR CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY EXPAND SW ACROSS
THE REGION LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHILE THE FOG BANK NEAR THE
ISLANDS GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTH. SCT CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS/TSTMS. WIDESPREAD
IFR/LIFR LIKELY TONIGHT...GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO VFR 14-16Z AS SW
WINDS DEVELOP...BUT IFR MAY PERSIST MOST OF THE DAY AT ACK.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN LOWERING TREND...LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. IFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL
REDEVELOP...POSSIBLY AS SOON AS LATE AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT CONDITIONS LOWER TO IFR
TONIGHT. EXACT TIMING UNCERTAIN.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT VARIABLE
CONDITIONS DEPENDING UPON SHOWER AND FOG DEVELOPMENT. BETTER SHOT
FOR IFR VSBYS IN FOG ALONG S COAST ON S-SW WINDS AND MILD TEMPS
MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION
THOUGH BEST SHOT ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS...WITH MVFR-IFR
CIGS/VSBYS. MAY SEE LOCAL HEAVY DOWNPOURS. LOW CONFIDENCE ON
TIMING AND PLACEMENT.

THURSDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VERY UNSETTLED PATTERN
AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. VARIABLE CONDITIONS BETWEEN VFR
AND MVFR/IFR IN SHRA/TSRA/PATCHY FOG. COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION THU NIGHT...SO WILL SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN
AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT THU NIGHT...THEN INTO CENTRAL SECTIONS AFTER
06Z-07Z. MAY SEE SW WIND GUSTING UP TO 20-25 KT DURING THE DAY AS
WELL. WINDS SHIFT TO W-NW ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAY SEE LEFTOVER POCKETS OF
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE ACROSS E MA THROUGH 14Z-15Z FRI.
OTHERWISE...VFR.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
THROUGH WED. INCREASING SW FLOW WILL RESULT IN SEAS BUILDING OVER
THE S COASTAL WATERS. LEANED MORE HEAVILY ON THE SWAN GUIDANCE FOR
SEAS FORECAST AS THE WNAWAVE GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE TOO HIGH. SEAS
COULD BUILD TO 5 FT OVER THE S COASTAL WATERS ON WED AND A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED. AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL
AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. EXPECT SW WINDS GUSTING TO 25
KT AND SEAS UP TO 6-8 FT...HIGHEST ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS. VSBYS
LOWERED IN PATCHY FOG ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

THURSDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. APPROACHING COLD FRONT
WILL KEEP SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA WINDS AND SEAS IN PLACE. EXPECT LOW
VSBYS IN HEAVY SHOWERS...PATCHY FOG. SCT THUNDER AS WELL. WINDS
MAY SHIFT TO W-NW ACROSS THE WESTERN WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO
CLEAR THE WATERS...SO EXPECT SW WINDS IN PLACE FOR A PORTION OF
THE DAY BEFORE SHIFTING TO W-NW ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SEAS WILL REMAIN ABOVE
SMALL CRAFT FOR MOST OF THE WEEKEND ESPECIALLY ON THE OUTER
WATERS. NW GUSTS MAY APPROACH 25 KT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/EVT
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...KJC/EVT
MARINE...KJC/EVT

000
FXUS61 KALY 212032
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
432 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. SOME OF THUNDERSTORMS
COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE EARLY THIS EVENING AND TOMORROW. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON THURSDAY...AND MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION ON FRIDAY WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FOR THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 9 PM EDT FOR EASTERN NEW YORK AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...

AS 415 PM EDT...IMPRESSIVE LARGE HAIL PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED IN THE CAPITAL REGION...AND POINTS JUST TO THE SOUTH.
THE CELLS HAVE EXHIBITED HAIL MONSTER LIKE CHARACTERISTICS WITH
SOME ELEVATED HAIL CORES /> 50 DBZS/ WAY ABOVE THE -20C HEIGHT.
IN SOME CASES...EXCEEDING 40 KFT AGL !!!

A QUICK MESOANALYIS SHOWS A WEAK SFC LOW/MESO LOW IS MOVING
ACROSS THE CNTRL PORTION OF THE FCST AREA...WITH THE WINDS TO THE
NORTHEAST AT KGFL...AND S/SW AT KPOU...AND SE WINDS OVER ALY. THE FCST
AREA GOT INTO A WELL DEFINED WARM SECTOR...WHERE TEMPS SOARED INTO
THE MID AND U80S...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION/MOHAWK
VALLEY SOUTHWARD. A FEW 90S HAVE OCCURRED IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY. THE FRONT LOOKS LIKE IT IS JUST CLIPPING THE DACKS...LAKE
GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...AND S-CNTRL VT.

SFC DEWPTS HAVE RISEN INTO THE MID AND U60S OVER A LARGE PORTION
OF THE FCST AREA. THE LATEST SPC MESO ANALYSIS PAGE INDICATES SBCAPES
HAVE REACHED 2000-3500+ J/KG FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND
EAST...AND LESS INSTABILITY NORTHWARD /1000-2000 J/KG/. THE 0-6 KM
BULK SHEAR ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE IN THE SRN ZONES /BASICALLY
SOUTH OF ALY/ WITH LESS THAN 30 KTS...BUT TO THE NORTH THE SHEAR
VALUES ARE 30-40 KTS. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE APPROACHING THE
6.5 C/KM RANGE. THE CONVECTION SEEMS TO REFIRING ON THE AXIS OF
2000+ J/KG SBCAPE VALUES...AND THE RIM OF THE 30 KT SHEAR VALUES.

THE LATEST MAGLENTA INDEX INDICATES A MAJOR SEVERE EVENT /HINGING
ON THE LARGE CAPE VALUES/.

CAPE=2000 J/KG (APPROX)
MAX SOUNDING WIND=40 KTS
EHI=0.5
STORM SPEED=20
KTS SRH=125

THE SVR CONVECTION SHOULD SIMMER DOWN EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT THE
APPROACHING SHORT-WAVE FROM EXTREME SE ONTARIO...AND NRN LAKE
ONTARIO WILL IMPACT OUR NRN ZONES BTWN BTWN 7 PM-10 PM. THE
INSTABILITY WILL BE WANING...AND WE KEPT GUSTY WINDS IN THE
FORECAST. POPS WERE RAISED TO CATEGORICAL AND HIGH LIKELY
VALUES...AND LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY COULD GET SOME
DECENT RAINFALL. THE BEST LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT SETS UP IN THESE AREAS. THE SHOWALTER VALUES ARE STILL BELOW
0C...SO SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE A ROUND...SO WE WILL
KEEP A CHANCE OF THUNDER IN.

OVERNIGHT MINS WILL BE ON THE MURKY SIDE WITH TEMPS IN THE U50S TO
M60S FOR LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE SFC BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT
AGAIN...AND THE FCST AREA GETS BACK INTO THE WARM SECTOR. ANOTHER
SHORT-WAVE WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES IN THE MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON. SBCAPES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE 1000-2500 J/KG
AGAIN OVER THE SRN TWO THIRDS OF THE FCST AREA WITH 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES ONLY 25-30 KTS OR SO PRIOR TO 00Z...BUT THEN THEY
INCREASE BTWN 00Z-06Z BASED ON THE NAM/GFS. THE LAPSE RATES DON/T
STEEPEN TO 6.5C/KM UNTIL AROUND 00Z TOO. OUR THINKING IS FOR A
LATER CONVECTIVE EVENT TOMORROW IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. SPC HAS MOST OF THE AREA OUTLOOKED /EXCEPT WRN NEW
ENGLAND/. HAVE DECIDED TO USE ENHANCED WORDING FOR SOME STORMS MAY
BE SEVERE IN THE AFTERNOON UNTIL MIDNIGHT. THE GUIDANCE USUALLY
STRUGGLES WITH PREFRONTAL TROUGHS...AND ONE LOOKS POSSIBLE LATE
TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
CONVECTION. PWATS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN A FEW STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL WITH VALUES OF 1.25-1.75"...AND SFC DEWPTS WILL BE IN
THE 60S AGAIN. SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
CONVECTION. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT TOMORROWS SEVERE THREAT.
OUR LOCAL WRF INDICATES A SQUALL LINE MAY BE MOVING ACROSS W-CNTRL
NY BY 00Z/THU IN THE 3KM BASE REF. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED. HIGHS TOMORROW IN THE U70S TO L80S OVER THE MTNS...AND
M80S TO U80S IN THE VALLEYS. LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 60S WED
NIGHT WITH SULTRY SUMMERLIKE CONDITIONS.

THU-THU NIGHT...TRICKY FORECAST FOR STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION ON
THU WITH THE COLD FRONT STILL TO THE WEST. THE BETTER JET DYNAMICS
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH APPRECIABLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN
PLACE. THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH HEATING OCCURS WITH CLOUD
COVER BEING AND ISSUE. LOCATIONS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH
AND EAST MAY HAVE THE BEST CHC FOR DESTABILIZATION AND SEVERE
WEATHER. NO SPC OUTLOOK YET...BUT DEFINITELY COULD SEE ONE LATER
FOR PARTS OF THE REGION.  WILL MENTION SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON THU. THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH SLOWLY...WITH SHOWERS PERSISTING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. A
WEAK WAVE MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY TOO. THE COLD ADVECTION WILL
SLOWLY SEEP INTO THE REGION WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO L60S BY
DAYBREAK FRI. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S ON THU.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COOLER AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. HAVE
FOLLOWED THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER`S GUIDANCE WHICH FAVORS THE
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH HAS THE SUPPORT OF THE GEFS MEANS. WPC
INDICATES THE DETERMINISTIC/OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND GFS
DEVIATE SIGNIFICANTLY ENOUGH FROM THE STEADIER MEANS THAT THEY WERE
NOT INCORPORATION INTO THEIR FORECAST.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION AS WE HEAD INTO
THE WEEKEND BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WILL HAVE
LINGER SHOWERS ON FRIDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFF THE
EAST. ON SATURDAY...THE REGION WILL BE UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW. THE
HIGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION AND OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT
WEEK. SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE COOLEST DAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S...AROUND 10 DEGREE BELOW NORMAL.
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST
WITH NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY.

THE GROWING SEASON IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...
GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...THE MOHAWK
VALLEY...EASTERN CATSKILLS...TACONICS...BERKSHIRES...BENNINGTON AND
EASTERN WINDHAM COUNTIES VT AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY. IT WILL START ON
MAY 25TH FOR THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN WINDHAM COUNTY.

AT THIS TIME...NIGHTTIME LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING AND
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40S IN THE
VALLEYS AND 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH THE EXPANSION OF
THE GROWING SEASON BY THIS TIME FROST ADVISORIES WOULD BE LIKELY
NEEDED FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS COULD BE COLDER WHICH WOULD LEAD TO THE NEED FOR A
FREEZE WARNING.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONVECTION...SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...HAS BEEN OCCURRING MAINLY
TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA AS A
WEAK MESO LOW MOVES ALONG THE BOUNDARY. CONVECTION SHOULD SIMMER DOWN
BY EARLY THIS EVENING...HOWEVER AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE FROM THE
WEST WILL BRING THREAT OF CONVECTION BACK TO THE AREA ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT. ONCE AGAIN
EXPECTING A LULL WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH RENEWED CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT
AGAIN...AND THE AREA GETS BACK INTO THE WARM SECTOR.

HAVE NORTHEAST FLOW TO THE NORTH OF BOUNDARY AND SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
OF THE BOUNDARY. WILL BE BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT. WITH THE BOUNDARY
EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH IFR POSSIBLE. -SHRA/-TSRA BECOMING LIKELY.
THU...MVFR WITH IFR POSSIBLE. -SHRA/-TSRA LIKELY.
FRI...MAINLY VFR. CHC -SHRA.
SAT-SUN...VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH FRIDAY. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND LOWER TO 45 TO 60 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

TH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY LESS THAN 10 MPH TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...EXCEPT STRONGER GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO SERVICE AREAS PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5
DAYS. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS OF RAINFALL MAY OCCUR TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORMS. 3-HR ZONAL FFG
VALUES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 2.4-3.1 INCH RANGE AT THIS
TIME...WHICH ARE HIGH FOR MID TO LATE MAY.

DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
BASIN AVERAGE QPF WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE THIS WEEK. THE BEST
THREAT FOR SEEING SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE TONIGHT...AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT.

THE HIGHEST AREAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF
THE FCST AREA BASED ON THE LATEST NERFC QPF WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES
POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY MORNING OVER THE SRN DACKS...LAKE GEORGE
REGION...AND A THIRD OF AN INCH TO AN INCH SOUTH OF THESE
LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS CAN OCCUR WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE HUMID AIR MASS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA/NAS
AVIATION...IAA/11
FIRE WEATHER...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/WASULA

000
FXUS61 KALY 212021
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
421 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. SOME OF THUNDERSTORMS
COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE EARLY THIS EVENING AND TOMORROW. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON THURSDAY...AND MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION ON FRIDAY WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FOR THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 9 PM EDT FOR EASTERN NEW YORK AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...

AS 415 PM EDT...IMPRESSIVE LARGE HAIL PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED IN THE CAPITAL REGION...AND POINTS JUST TO THE SOUTH.
THE CELLS HAVE EXHIBITED HAIL MONSTER LIKE CHARACTERISTICS WITH
SOME ELEVATED HAIL CORES /> 50 DBZS/ WAY ABOVE THE -20C HEIGHT.
IN SOME CASES...EXCEEDING 40 KFT AGL !!!

A QUICK MESOANALYIS SHOWS A WEAK SFC LOW/MESO LOW IS MOVING
ACROSS THE CNTRL PORTION OF THE FCST AREA...WITH THE WINDS TO THE
NORTHEAST AT KGFL...AND S/SW AT KPOU...AND SE WINDS OVER ALY. THE FCST
AREA GOT INTO A WELL DEFINED WARM SECTOR...WHERE TEMPS SOARED INTO
THE MID AND U80S...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION/MOHAWK
VALLEY SOUTHWARD. A FEW 90S HAVE OCCURRED IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY. THE FRONT LOOKS LIKE IT IS JUST CLIPPING THE DACKS...LAKE
GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...AND S-CNTRL VT.

SFC DEWPTS HAVE RISEN INTO THE MID AND U60S OVER A LARGE PORTION
OF THE FCST AREA. THE LATEST SPC MESO ANALYSIS PAGE INDICATES SBCAPES
HAVE REACHED 2000-3500+ J/KG FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND
EAST...AND LESS INSTABILITY NORTHWARD /1000-2000 J/KG/. THE 0-6 KM
BULK SHEAR ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE IN THE SRN ZONES /BASICALLY
SOUTH OF ALY/ WITH LESS THAN 30 KTS...BUT TO THE NORTH THE SHEAR
VALUES ARE 30-40 KTS. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE APPROACHING THE
6.5 C/KM RANGE. THE CONVECTION SEEMS TO REFIRING ON THE AXIS OF
2000+ J/KG SBCAPE VALUES...AND THE RIM OF THE 30 KT SHEAR VALUES.

THE LATEST MAGLENTA INDEX INDICATES A MAJOR SEVERE EVENT /HINGING
ON THE LARGE CAPE VALUES/.

CAPE=2000 J/KG (APPROX)
MAX SOUNDING WIND=40 KTS
EHI=0.5
STORM SPEED=20
KTS SRH=125

THE SVR CONVECTION SHOULD SIMMER DOWN EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT THE
APPROACHING SHORT-WAVE FROM EXTREME SE ONTARIO...AND NRN LAKE
ONTARIO WILL IMPACT OUR NRN ZONES BTWN BTWN 7 PM-10 PM. THE
INSTABILITY WILL BE WANING...AND WE KEPT GUSTY WINDS IN THE
FORECAST. POPS WERE RAISED TO CATEGORICAL AND HIGH LIKELY
VALUES...AND LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY COULD GET SOME
DECENT RAINFALL. THE BEST LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT SETS UP IN THESE AREAS. THE SHOWALTER VALUES ARE STILL BELOW
0C...SO SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE A ROUND...SO WE WILL
KEEP A CHANCE OF THUNDER IN.

OVERNIGHT MINS WILL BE ON THE MURKY SIDE WITH TEMPS IN THE U50S TO
M60S FOR LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE SFC BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT
AGAIN...AND THE FCST AREA GETS BACK INTO THE WARM SECTOR. ANOTHER
SHORT-WAVE WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES IN THE MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON. SBCAPES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE 1000-2500 J/KG
AGAIN OVER THE SRN TWO THIRDS OF THE FCST AREA WITH 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES ONLY 25-30 KTS OR SO PRIOR TO 00Z...BUT THEN THEY
INCREASE BTWN 00Z-06Z BASED ON THE NAM/GFS. THE LAPSE RATES DON/T
STEEPEN TO 6.5C/KM UNTIL AROUND 00Z TOO. OUR THINKING IS FOR A
LATER CONVECTIVE EVENT TOMORROW IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. SPC HAS MOST OF THE AREA OUTLOOKED /EXCEPT WRN NEW
ENGLAND/. HAVE DECIDED TO USE ENHANCED WORDING FOR SOME STORMS MAY
BE SEVERE IN THE AFTERNOON UNTIL MIDNIGHT. THE GUIDANCE USUALLY
STRUGGLES WITH PREFRONTAL TROUGHS...AND ONE LOOKS POSSIBLE LATE
TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
CONVECTION. PWATS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN A FEW STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL WITH VALUES OF 1.25-1.75"...AND SFC DEWPTS WILL BE IN
THE 60S AGAIN. SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
CONVECTION. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT TOMORROWS SEVERE THREAT.
OUR LOCAL WRF INDICATES A SQUALL LINE MAY BE MOVING ACROSS W-CNTRL
NY BY 00Z/THU IN THE 3KM BASE REF. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED. HIGHS TOMORROW IN THE U70S TO L80S OVER THE MTNS...AND
M80S TO U80S IN THE VALLEYS. LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 60S WED
NIGHT WITH SULTRY SUMMERLIKE CONDITIONS.

THU-THU NIGHT...TRICKY FORECAST FOR STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION ON
THU WITH THE COLD FRONT STILL TO THE WEST. THE BETTER JET DYNAMICS
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH APPRECIABLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN
PLACE. THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH HEATING OCCURS WITH CLOUD
COVER BEING AND ISSUE. LOCATIONS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH
AND EAST MAY HAVE THE BEST CHC FOR DESTABILIZATION AND SEVERE
WEATHER. NO SPC OUTLOOK YET...BUT DEFINITELY COULD SEE ONE LATER
FOR PARTS OF THE REGION.  WILL MENTION SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON THU. THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH SLOWLY...WITH SHOWERS PERSISTING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. A
WEAK WAVE MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY TOO. THE COLD ADVECTION WILL
SLOWLY SEEP INTO THE REGION WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO L60S BY
DAYBREAK FRI. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S ON THU.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COOLER AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. HAVE
FOLLOWED THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER`S GUIDANCE WHICH FAVORS THE
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH HAS THE SUPPORT OF THE GEFS MEANS. WPC
INDICATES THE DETERMINISTIC/OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND GFS
DEVIATE SIGNIFICANTLY ENOUGH FROM THE STEADIER MEANS THAT THEY WERE
NOT INCORPORATION INTO THEIR FORECAST.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION AS WE HEAD INTO
THE WEEKEND BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WILL HAVE
LINGER SHOWERS ON FRIDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFF THE
EAST. ON SATURDAY...THE REGION WILL BE UNDER CYCLIONIC FLOW. THE
HIGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION AND OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT
WEEK. SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE COOLEST DAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S...AROUND 10 DEGREE BELOW NORMAL.
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST
WITH NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY.

THE GROWING SEASON IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...
GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...THE MOHAWK
VALLEY...EASTERN CATSKILLS...TACONICS...BERKSHIRES...BENNINGTON AND
EASTERN WINDHAM COUNTIES VT AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY. IT WILL START ON
MAY 25TH FOR THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN WINDHAM COUNTY.

AT THIS TIME...NIGHTTIME LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING AND
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40S IN THE
VALLEYS AND 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH THE EXPANSION OF
THE GROWING SEASON BY THIS TIME FROST ADVISORIES WOULD BE LIKELY
NEEDED FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS COULD BE COLDER WHICH WOULD LEAD TO THE NEED FOR A
FREEZE WARNING.


&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF THE FA ALONG WITH SOME
WHICH DEVELOP ACRS THE FA THIS AFTERNOON COULD AFFECT THE TAF
SITES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES OF
ANY STORM IMPACTING THE TAF SITES...JUST PLACING VCSH AT ALL
SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LATER IN THE EVENING...SOME FOG
AND LOW CEILINGS COULD POTENTIALLY FORM WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. THIS
WILL BREAK WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD MIDDAY...SO HAVE PLACED VCSH IN TAFS AT
15Z WED.

LIGHT WINDS SHOULD BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 KT OR LESS
TODAY...THEN DIMINISH BACK TO LIGHT THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AND
THEN BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 7 KTS ON WEDNESDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
WED...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA/-TSRA ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTN.
WED NIGHT...VFR/MVFR. AT KGFL AND KALB -SHRA/-TSRA LIKELY. AT KPSF
AND KPOU CHC -SHRA/-TSRA.
THU...MVFR WITH IFR POSSIBLE. -SHRA/-TSRA LIKELY.
THU NIGHT...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA/-TSRA ESPECIALLY IN THE EVNG.
FRI...MAINLY VFR. CHC -TSRA MAINLY IN THE AM.
SAT-SUN...VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH FRIDAY. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND LOWER TO 45 TO 60 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

TH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY LESS THAN 10 MPH TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...EXCEPT STRONGER GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO SERVICE AREAS PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5
DAYS. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS OF RAINFALL MAY OCCUR TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORMS. 3-HR ZONAL FFG
VALUES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 2.4-3.1 INCH RANGE AT THIS
TIME...WHICH ARE HIGH FOR MID TO LATE MAY.

DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
BASIN AVERAGE QPF WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE THIS WEEK. THE BEST
THREAT FOR SEEING SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE TONIGHT...AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT.

THE HIGHEST AREAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF
THE FCST AREA BASED ON THE LATEST NERFC QPF WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES
POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY MORNING OVER THE SRN DACKS...LAKE GEORGE
REGION...AND A THIRD OF AN INCH TO AN INCH SOUTH OF THESE
LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS CAN OCCUR WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE HUMID AIR MASS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/WASULA

000
FXUS61 KOKX 212000
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
400 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY. CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
ADVECTION FOG/STRATUS REMAINS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF EASTERN SUFFOLK
COUNTY. DENSE FOG ADVISORY THERE THROUGH 10 AM...THOUGH THIS WILL
LIKELY NEED EXPANDING AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. CONFIDENCE ON THIS
THOUGH IS NOT THAT HIGH AT THIS TIME TO WARRANT EXPANSION.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPS NEAR 90 AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE...INSTABILITY
IS MAXIMIZED. THE LACK OF A TRIGGER AWAY FROM THE FRONT HAS KEPT
CONVECTION LIMITED. HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR THIS EVENING AND KEPT IT
CONFINED TO THE INTERIOR AS A RESULT. EVEN THESE POPS MAY BE OVER
DONE. WITH THE LACK OF MORE EXTENSIVE CONVECTIVE INITIATION SO FAR...HAVE
DROPPED MENTION OF CONVECTION THIS EVENING IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

WARM AND MUGGY OVERNIGHT WITH BLENDED MOS ACCEPTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
LOOKS LIKE A SIMILAR DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS RIDGE SLOWLY SHIFTS
EAST. MORNING FOG AND STRATUS WILL GIVE WAY TO AT LEAST PARTIAL
SUNSHINE. CONVECTION SHOULD BE SCATTERED AT BEST WITH ONLY MARGINAL
INSTABILITY IN PLACE...LESS THAN TODAY. HIGHS IN THE MID
80S...EXCEPT ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY TRANSLATES
EAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND THEN OFFSHORE BY THE WEEKEND.
INTERACTION WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE
POLAR JET ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL AMPLIFY THE TROUGH ACROSS THE
OH VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS AMPLIFICATION RESULTS IN
TIMING ISSUES AMONGST THE GLOBAL MODELS...WITH THE OPERATIONAL 12Z
GFS AT THE WESTERN END OF THE ENVELOPE. THE ECMWF AND GGEM ARE THE
QUICKEST WITH SWINGING THE FRONT ACROSS THE COAST BY FRI MORNING.
IN FACT...THE GFS CONTINUES TO BECOME MUCH SLOWER THAN THE ALL THE
GUIDANCE FRI INTO SAT AS THE UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF APPROACHING THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES...TAKING ON A NEGATIVE TILT MUCH CLOSER TO THE
COAST. THIS WOULD RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF POST-FRONTAL
RAIN INTO SAT. PREFERENCE AT THIS TIME WAS TO LEAN TOWARD THE
FASTER MODEL CONSENSUS WITH PCPN SHUTTING DOWN FRI AFT/EVE.
SUBSEQUENT MODEL TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED TO SEE
IF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM SLOWS DOWN EVEN FURTHER.

AS FOR THE SENSIBLE WEATHER...COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
THU...PASSING ACROSS THE REGION THU NIGHT INTO FRI AFT. HIGH PW
VALUES AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WORKS WEST TO EAST DURING
THIS TIME. THE ISOLATED THREAT APPEARS LOW AT THIS TIME WITH THE
LOW-LEVEL JET DISPLACED EAST OF THE AREA AND MARGINAL DEEP LAYER
SHEAR. UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES SUPPORT SOME BOWING LINE
SEGMENTS. WET-BULB ZERO VALUES ARE WARM SUPPORTING ONLY SMALL HAIL.
THE MAIN THREAT LOOKS TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL...
ESPECIALLY IF THE UPPER FLOW BACKS FURTHER WITH THE AMPLIFICATION OF
THE UPPER TROF TO THE WEST. AVERAGE BASIS RAINFALL SHOULD BE CLOSE
TO AN INCH...WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS.

A DRIER NW FLOW SET UPS FRI NIGHT WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN N OF THE REGION THRU TNGT.

ISOLD-SCT TSTMS EXPECTED THIS AFTN AND EVE...MAINLY N AND W OF THE
CITY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY TSTMS WHICH FORM ACROSS NERN NJ
TO SLOWLY TRACK ESE TOWARDS THE CITY AND WEAKEN. THERE COULD BE
SOME DIRECT IMPACTS ESPECIALLY KTEB IF THIS OCCURS.
OTHERWISE...VFR WITH SLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.

IFR FOG SHOULD RETURN TNGT. ANY TSTMS COULD ALTER THE TIMING. LGT
SLY FLOW...VRB AT TIMES...CAN BE EXPECTED.

CONDITIONS WILL BE SLOWER TO IMPROVE ON WED. THINK IFR MOST AREAS
TIL AT LEAST 14-17Z. POTENTIAL FOR IFR OR MVFR TO REMAIN IN PLACE
ALL DAY ON THE COASTS WITH PERHAPS A FEW BREAKS.


     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: FOG MAY DEVELOP QUICKER THAN TAFS INDICATE
THIS EVE. TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN N OF THE TERMINAL THIS EVE
ATTM.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: ALTHOUGH TSTMS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO
REMAIN N OF THE TERMINAL THIS EVE...THERE IS A LOW PROB THAT A
WEAKENING TSTM COULD IMPACT THE TERMINAL.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: THERE IS A LOW PROB OF TSTMS INVOF THE
TERMINAL THIS EVE. MOST ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN N OF THE
ARPT.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: ALTHOUGH MOST TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN N
OF THE ARPT...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ACTIVITY INVOF THE ARPT
THIS AFTN AND EVE.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: ALTHOUGH MOST TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN N
OF THE ARPT...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ACTIVITY INVOF THE ARPT
THIS AFTN AND EVE.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: THE FOG MAY DEVELOP QUICKER THAN THE TAFS
INDICATE THIS EVE.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WED AFTN...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE COAST...VFR INTERIOR. SCT SHRA
AND TSTMS POSSIBLE.
.WED NIGHT...SCT SHRA AND TSTMS POSSIBLE. IFR POSSIBLE IN FOG AND
STRATUS.
.THU-FRI...NUMEROUS SHRA AND TSTMS POSSIBLE. IFR POSSIBLE IN FOG AND
STRATUS.
.SAT...RESIDUAL SHRA BEHIND A COLD FRONT WITH MVFR. BECOMING VFR
WITH NW WINDS INCREASING TO 20-30KT.
.SUN...VFR WITH NW WINDS 20-25KT.

&&

.MARINE...
DENSE FOG ACROSS THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS...MAINLY NEAR SHORE...AND THE
EASTERN GREAT SOUTH BAY. THIS ADVECTION FOG IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND
BACK WEST OVERNIGHT.

SOUTH SOUTHWEST SUB SCA WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SEAS SHOULD SLOWLY BUILD WEDNESDAY...BUT HAVE UNDERCUT WAVEWATCH
TO PREVENT REACHING SCA CRITERIA UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THINKING
WITH STRONG INVERSION THAT WIND FORCING WAS OVERDONE IN THE WW3
FORECAST.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WATERS EARLY FRIDAY...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE ON SAT. WINDS COULD BE
BELOW SCA LEVELS BY FRIDAY MORNING...WITH SEAS ON THE OCEAN
REMAINING ABOVE SCA CRITERIA THROUGH MUCH SATURDAY MORNING.
UNDERCUT WAVEWATCH DURING THIS TIME AS IT WAS SLOWER BRINGING THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
SEAS DUE TO THE TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODELS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCT TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON THIS EVENING...MAINLY LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY. COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE LARGE ENOUGH TO PRESENT A
FLOOD TREAT.

SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS WED-THU WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...WITH THE BEST CHANCES NORTH/WEST OF NYC. TOTAL BASIN
AVG QPF FOR WED-THU COULD BE 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMTS IN TSTMS.

AVERAGE BASIS RAINFALL SHOULD BE CLOSE TO AN INCH THU INTO
FRI...WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS. TRAINING OF THUNDERSTORMS COULD
RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ081.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ345-350-
     353.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TONGUE
NEAR TERM...TONGUE
SHORT TERM...TONGUE
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...TONGUE/DW
HYDROLOGY...TONGUE

000
FXUS61 KBOX 211916
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
316 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS SNE TONIGHT BEFORE LIFTING
TO THE NORTH WEDNESDAY. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR MASS IS
EXPECTED FOR THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BACKDOOR FRONT MOVING SW FROM E MA. LOTS OF CU HAVE DEVELOPED
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WITH WIDELY SCT CONVECTION ACROSS SNE WITH
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MOVING EWD FROM E NYS. ENVIRONMENT IS
RATHER UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES 2000+ J/KG ACROSS LOWER CT VALLEY
WITH DECREASING CAPES FURTHER E. EXPECT STORMS TO CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR...MAINLY CENTRAL AND W ZONES AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY AS ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR STORMS. AS BACKDOOR
FRONT CONTINUES PUSHING WEST...FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL
SHIFT TO THE CT VALLEY LATE AFTERNOON AND TOWARD EVENING. 0-6KM
SHEAR IN THE UNSTABLE AIR IS 25-30 KT WHICH IS MORE THAN ENOUGH
FOR STORM ORGANIZATION GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF CAPE. EXPECT A FEW
STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS INTO THIS EVENING.

TONIGHT...CONVECTION SHOULD WEAKEN THIS EVENING...BUT WITH
UNSTABLE AIR ALOFT PERSISTING AND BACKDOOR FRONT IN THE AREA CANT
RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM DURING THE NIGHT
ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD SHOULD BE DRY. THE BACKDOOR
FRONT MAY MAKE IT TO THE CT VALLEY LATER TONIGHT BEFORE STALLING.
EXPECT WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO REDEVELOP AGAIN
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE COASTAL PLAIN AND A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED AGAIN. MIN TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S
WITH LOWER 60S IN THE LOWER CT VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
BACKDOOR FRONT WILL MOVE/JUMP TO THE NORTH ON WED AS LOW LEVEL SW
FLOW MIXES DOWN TO THE SURFACE. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL ERODE AS
SW FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED...BUT THE LOW CLOUDS/FOG MAY LINGER
MOST OF THE DAY OVER THE ISLANDS AND ESPECIALLY ACK. 850 MB TEMPS
15-16C SO IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID DAY WITH TEMPS WELL
INTO THE 80S AWAY FROM THE S COAST AND POSSIBLY A FEW LOCATIONS
NEARING 90 IN THE INTERIOR VALLEYS.

CONVECTION WILL BE A CONCERN ONCE AGAIN WED AFTERNOON AS
ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. HIGHEST MLCAPES 1000-2000 J/KG WILL BE
FOCUSED MOSTLY WEST OF I95 AS SW FLOW WILL ACT TO STABILIZE THE
COASTAL PLAIN. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS A BIT WEAKER WED AND MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE MARGINAL...BUT MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY SUGGESTS
SCT STORMS WILL DEVELOP AND CANT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS IN THE INTERIOR.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURS INTO FRIDAY
* COOLER AND LESS HUMID FOR THE WEEKEND

CONFIDENCE LEVEL/MODEL GUIDANCE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE
OVERALL FORECAST...YET LOW CONFIDENCE ON MODEL PERFORMANCE. THE
00Z GFS/NAM SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWED DOWN THE DIGGING TROUGH FOR THE
NORTHEAST. THE REST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE FOLLOWED SUIT BUT NOT AS
DRASTICALLY. LEANED FORECAST TOWARDS EC/UKMET WHICH WHERE IN
BETWEEN THE 12Z AND 00Z GUIDANCE AS WELL AS PREV FORECAST. OVERALL
HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIP WILL OCCUR THURS AND MODERATE
CONFIDENCE FOR FRIDAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A COOL DOWN FOR THE WEEK
WITH MOD CONFIDENCE FOR SEASONAL TEMPS AND DRY FORECAST FOR
BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK.

DETAILS...

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...

APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING A ROUND OF PRECIP AND
THUNDER TO THE REGION. STILL SOME TIMING ISSUES AS MODELS STILL
DIFFER ON EXACT LOCATION AND MESOSCALE PARAMETERS.
REGARDLESS...SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL BE LOCATED IN THE WARM SECTOR
OF THE SYSTEM ALLOWING HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND THEREFORE MUGGY
CONDITIONS. TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE 80S. BELIEVE DIURNAL PRECIP
WILL BE THE MAIN TREAT FOR THIS DAY...WITH STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE.
MAIN THREAT OF THESE STORMS WILL BE HAIL...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL CHANGE THE
CONVECTIVE MODE TO MORE OF A POSSIBLE SQUALL LINE ON FRIDAY.
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS APPEAR TO BE MORE IN LINE DUE TO THE SLOW DOWN
OF THE OVERALL SYSTEM. ONLY THING TRULY LACKING IS THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY AS CLOUD DEBRIS WILL BE AROUND FROM THE PREV NIGHTS
SHOWERS/THUNDER. IF STORMS DO DEVELOP THEN BELIEVE THE MAIN THREAT
WILL BE STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS REACH CLOSE TO 1.5
IN.

THIS WEEKEND...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH OVER THE WEEK...CAA WILL
BRING A THERMAL TROUGH INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL DROP TEMPS WELL
BELOW SEASONAL AVG. AM NOT ANTICIPATED ANY FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES
AT THIS TIME BUT MAY NEED TO MONITOR IN THE FUTURE AS THE ENTIRE
AREA IS NOW IN THE GROWING SEASON. EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR
THE WEEKEND AND TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

MONDAY AND BEYOND...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL HELP TEMPS REACH SEASONAL
CONDITIONS. APPEARS THAT THERE IS LIMITED MOISTURE...HOWEVER
CANNOT RULE OUT A SPOT SHOWER OR TWO...ESP IF SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

OVERVIEW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE OF
STRATUS AND FOG THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH
IFR PERSISTING AT ACK AND STRATUS/PATCHY FOG ACROSS NE MA TO BOS
HARBOR. EXPECT THE IFR CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY EXPAND SW ACROSS
THE REGION LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHILE THE FOG BANK NEAR THE
ISLANDS GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTH. SCT CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS/TSTMS. WIDESPREAD
IFR/LIFR LIKELY TONIGHT...GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO VFR 14-16Z AS SW
WINDS DEVELOP...BUT IFR MAY PERSIST MOST OF THE DAY AT ACK.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN LOWERING TREND...LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. IFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL
REDEVELOP...POSSIBLY AS SOON AS LATE AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT CONDITIONS LOWER TO IFR
TONIGHT. EXACT TIMING UNCERTAIN.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENTS. VERY UNSETTLED
PATTERN WITH VARIABILITY BETWEEN VFR CONDITIONS AND MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS IN SHRA/TSRA/FOG. IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
THROUGH WED. INCREASING SW FLOW WILL RESULT IN SEAS BUILDING OVER
THE S COASTAL WATERS. LEANED MORE HEAVILY ON THE SWAN GUIDANCE FOR
SEAS FORECAST AS THE WNAWAVE GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE TOO HIGH. SEAS
COULD BUILD TO 5 FT OVER THE S COASTAL WATERS ON WED AND A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED. AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL
AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM
WILL INCREASE SEAS ABOVE 5FT DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...SCA WILL BE
NEEDED. EXPECT LOW VSBYS IN HEAVY SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDER AS WELL.
BELIEVE FRIDAY IS THE BETTER DAY FOR TSTORMS ACROSS THE WATERS AS
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY.

THIS WEEKEND...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SEAS WILL REMAIN ABOVE SCA
FOR MOST OF THE WEEKEND ESP FOR THE OUTER WATERS. GUSTY NW BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL BRING GUSTS CLOSE TO GALE FORCE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN
MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN

000
FXUS61 KALY 211801
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
201 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMING STATIONARY OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK
AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  A DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS SOME SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MID AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE
HUMID AND UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES TOMORROW AND THURSDAY WITH
MORE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE A COLD FRONT
RETURNS DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 9 PM EDT FOR EASTERN NEW YORK AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...

AS 145 PM EDT...AFTER COORDINATION WITH SPC AND WFO BGM AND BUF
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IS IN A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF LARGE HAIL /1 INCH AND GREATER/ AND DAMAGING WINDS.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE COVERAGE FOR SEVERE...BUT AIR
MASS IS EXTREMELY UNSTABLE SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AS
DESCRIBED BELOW.

THE AIR MASS HAVE BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE IN
THE WARM SECTOR EARLY THIS PM WITH TEMPS GETTING CLOSE TO
CONVECTIVE TEMPS...AND ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTION FIRING OVER WRN-
CNTRL NY. TEMPS HAVE BEEN RAISED TO THE MID AND U80S OVER PORTIONS
OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. THERE MAYBE A
FEW READINGS CLOSE TO 90F TOO NEAR KPOU. ELSEWHERE TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO RISE INTO THE U70S TO M80S.

ALSO...SFC DEWPTS HAVE RISEN INTO THE MID AND U60S OVER A LARGE
PORTION OF THE FCST. THE LATEST SPC MESO ANALYSIS PAGE INDICATES
SBCAPES HAVE REACHED 2000-3000+ J/KG FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
SOUTH AND EAST...AND LESS INSTABILITY NORTHWARD /1000-2000 J/KG/.
THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE IN THE SRN ZONES
WITH LESS THAN 20 KTS...BUT TO THE NORTH THE SHEAR VALUES ARE
30-35 KTS. THEREFORE...BETTER...DEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTION...IS
POSSIBLE FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH...WITH PULSE CONVECTION TO
THE SOUTH. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE APPROACHING THE 6.5 C/KM
RANGE. THE ABUNDANCE OF INSTABILITY AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES
WILL PROMOTE SOME LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL TOO.

NOW...UPSTREAM...A POSSIBLE REMNANT MCV IS MOVING ACROSS SE
ONTARIO. THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE THE FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR
POSSIBLE SEVERE CONVECTION /ASIDE FROM THE PULSE CONVECTION/. THE
12Z KALB SOUNDING DOES INDICATE A MID LEVEL CAP BTWN 500-550 HPA
THAT WILL NEED TO BE ERODED FOR ROBUST SEVERE WEATHER. THE
UPSTREAM CONVECTION IS HOLDING TOGETHER...SO THIS CAP COULD BE BROKEN.

THE LATEST MAGLENTA INDEX INDICATES A MAJOR SEVERE EVENT /HINGING
ON THE LARGE CAPE VALUES/.

CAPE=2000 J/KG (APPROX)
MAX SOUNDING WIND=40 KTS
EHI=0.5
STORM SPEED=20
KTS SRH=125

THINKING HAS CHANGED FOR A MINOR TO MAJOR EVENT BASED ON THE
VOLATILE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ONGOING CONVECTION THIS EVENING LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS
THE SFC WAVE MOVES ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE BEST CHC FOR SEEING
SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA.
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...ANY SVR THREAT WILL BE DIMINISHED...BUT
THUNDER SHOULD STILL CONTINUE DUE TO LINGERING ELEVATED
INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MILD AND
MUGGY WITH UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ACROSS THE AREA.

THE SFC BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.
THE RIDGE AXIS WILL START TO SHIFT EASTWARD AS THE UPPER LOW OVER
THE PLAINS SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD. DESPITE THE WEAK LARGE SCALE
FORCING...THERE LOOKS TO BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS AS
A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH MAY BE IN PLACE ACROSS OUR AREA BY AFTN.
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE...ESP WITH
WARM TEMPS REACHING THE 80S IN MOST AREAS...AND TDS IN THE MID 60S
F. ANY STORM WILL AGAIN BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS/LARGE HAIL...AND SPC HAS PLACED A GOOD CHUNK OF OUR AREA IN
A SLIGHT RISK FOR SVR STORMS. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HWO AS
WELL.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER AGAIN INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH CONTINUED MILD AND MUGGY CONDITIONS. MINS WILL ONLY DROP INTO
THE 60S...WITH MID TO UPPER 60S IN THE HUDSON VALLEY.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO MAKE SOME STEADY EASTWARD
PROGRESS ON THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. A SFC COLD FRONT WILL
ADVANCE EASTWARD DURING THIS TIME AS WELL. THIS FRONT WILL BE A
FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESP FOR THURSDAY
AFTN INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...THERE WILL BE
ONE LAST WARM AND MUGGY DAY...WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S. MIN TEMPS
WILL START TO COOL OFF BY THURSDAY NIGHT WILL THE BOUNDARY MOVING
THROUGH...WITH MINS IN THE 40S AND 50S ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE
MILDEST TEMPS IN SOUTHEASTERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT SHOULD EXIT THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY WITH
LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING IN NY AND INTO
THE AFTERNOON IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.  THERE SHOULD BE DECENT
BOUNDARY LAYER FORCING WITH A TIGHT THERMAL AND MOISTURE GRADIENT
ALONG THE COLD FRONT...SO WILL KEEP AN EYE FOR ANY STRONG
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL
THROUGH THE DAY...AND HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE CAPPED AROUND THE
MID 60S TO AROUND 70...BUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.

ONCE THE COLD FRONT IS GONE...HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS IN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. SOME
LINGERING CLOUDINESS COULD AFFECT THE MID HUDSON VALLEY INTO WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT COULD BE SLOW TO EXIT THOSE
AREAS. HOWEVER...ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF OUR
AREA.  HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...UPPER 50S SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...INCREASING SUNSHINE AND SLOWLY MODERATING
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 AND ON
MONDAY...HIGHS AROUND 70 TO THE LOWER 70S.  TEMPERATURES COOLER IN
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS BOTH DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF THE FA ALONG WITH SOME
WHICH DEVELOP ACRS THE FA THIS AFTERNOON COULD AFFECT THE TAF
SITES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES OF
ANY STORM IMPACTING THE TAF SITES...JUST PLACING VCSH AT ALL
SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LATER IN THE EVENING...SOME FOG
AND LOW CEILINGS COULD POTENTIALLY FORM WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. THIS
WILL BREAK WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD MIDDAY...SO HAVE PLACED VCSH IN TAFS AT
15Z WED.

LIGHT WINDS SHOULD BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 KT OR LESS
TODAY...THEN DIMINISH BACK TO LIGHT THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AND
THEN BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 7 KTS ON WEDNESDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
WED...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA/-TSRA ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTN.
WED NIGHT...VFR/MVFR. AT KGFL AND KALB -SHRA/-TSRA LIKELY. AT KPSF
AND KPOU CHC -SHRA/-TSRA.
THU...MVFR WITH IFR POSSIBLE. -SHRA/-TSRA LIKELY.
THU NIGHT...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA/-TSRA ESPECIALLY IN THE EVNG.
FRI...MAINLY VFR. CHC -TSRA MAINLY IN THE AM.
SAT-SUN...VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY DUE TO ON AND OFF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. RH VALUES WILL RECOVER
TO NEAR 100 PERCENT AT NIGHT...AND RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY STAY
ABOVE 50 PERCENT DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO SERVICE AREAS PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5
DAYS. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS OF RAINFALL MAY OCCUR TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORMS. 3-HR ZONAL FFG VALUES ARE
GENERALLY IN THE 2.4-3.1 INCH RANGE AT THIS TIME...WHICH ARE HIGH
FOR MID TO LATE MAY.

DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
BASIN AVERAGE QPF WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE THIS WEEK. THE BEST
THREAT FOR SEEING SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. WHILE IT/S DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT
EXACT AMOUNTS...GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER /WPC/
SUGGESTS THAT MOST AREAS WILL SEE BETWEEN ONE HALF INCH AND AN INCH
AND A HALF OF RAIN THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...WITH THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/LFM/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/WASULA

000
FXUS61 KBOX 211748
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
148 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY RESULTING IN BRIEFLY COOLER WEATHER ACROSS
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A
COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR MASS IS EXPECTED FOR THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
145 PM UPDATE...
CU FIELD IS INCREASING ACROSS SNE AWAY FROM THE COASTLINE...WHILE
LOW CLOUDS ASSOCD WITH BACKDOOR FRONT LINGERING ACROSS NE MA AND
SE NH. SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A RATHER UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
MLCAPES NEARING 2000 J/KG ACROSS LOWER CT VALLEY AND MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES 6.5 TO 7 C/KM. THIS IS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP AND EXPECT SHOWERS/STORMS TO DEVELOP AROUND
MID AFTERNOON. BACKDOOR FRONT OVER NE MA WILL BEGIN TO PUSH SW
DURING MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION. BEST CHC FOR TSTMS WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN
MA...N CT AND POSSIBLY N RI...WITH FOCUS FOR ACTIVITY SHIFTING TO
CT VALLEY LATE AFTERNOON AND TOWARD EVENING AS THE BACKDOOR FRONT
MOVES SW. 0-6KM SHEAR IN THE UNSTABLE AIR IS 25-30 KT WHICH IS
MORE THAN ENOUGH FOR STORM ORGANIZATION GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF CAPE.
EXPECT A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS.

TEMPS HAVE RISEN INTO THE 80S SOUTH OF THE FRONT...WHILE READINGS
ARE IN THE 60S ACROSS NE MA. THIS COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD
SW TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE FARTHER NORTH LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A WARMER DAY
ACROSS EASTERN MA. STILL NOT CONVINCED SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT LOCAL SEABREEZES FROM DEVELOPING...SO
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINES.

AM CURRENTLY EXPECTING A BRIEF DIMINISHMENT OF ANY CONVECTION
LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...AS SUGGESTED BY CLIMATOLOGY.
INSTABILITY REGENERATES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...SO KEPT AT LEAST A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. THE LOWEST
RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS...WHERE ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES LOWER.

USED A BLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE ONCE AGAIN FOR TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURS INTO FRIDAY
* COOLER AND LESS HUMID FOR THE WEEKEND

CONFIDENCE LEVEL/MODEL GUIDANCE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE
OVERALL FORECAST...YET LOW CONFIDENCE ON MODEL PERFORMANCE. THE
00Z GFS/NAM SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWED DOWN THE DIGGING TROUGH FOR THE
NORTHEAST. THE REST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE FOLLOWED SUIT BUT NOT AS
DRASTICALLY. LEANED FORECAST TOWARDS EC/UKMET WHICH WHERE IN
BETWEEN THE 12Z AND 00Z GUIDANCE AS WELL AS PREV FORECAST. OVERALL
HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIP WILL OCCUR THURS AND MODERATE
CONFIDENCE FOR FRIDAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A COOL DOWN FOR THE WEEK
WITH MOD CONFIDENCE FOR SEASONAL TEMPS AND DRY FORECAST FOR
BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK.

DETAILS...

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...

APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING A ROUND OF PRECIP AND
THUNDER TO THE REGION. STILL SOME TIMING ISSUES AS MODELS STILL
DIFFER ON EXACT LOCATION AND MESOSCALE PARAMETERS.
REGARDLESS...SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL BE LOCATED IN THE WARM SECTOR
OF THE SYSTEM ALLOWING HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND THEREFORE MUGGY
CONDITIONS. TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE 80S. BELIEVE DIURNAL PRECIP
WILL BE THE MAIN TREAT FOR THIS DAY...WITH STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE.
MAIN THREAT OF THESE STORMS WILL BE HAIL...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL CHANGE THE
CONVECTIVE MODE TO MORE OF A POSSIBLE SQUALL LINE ON FRIDAY.
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS APPEAR TO BE MORE IN LINE DUE TO THE SLOW DOWN
OF THE OVERALL SYSTEM. ONLY THING TRULY LACKING IS THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY AS CLOUD DEBRIS WILL BE AROUND FROM THE PREV NIGHTS
SHOWERS/THUNDER. IF STORMS DO DEVELOP THEN BELIEVE THE MAIN THREAT
WILL BE STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS REACH CLOSE TO 1.5
IN.

THIS WEEKEND...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH OVER THE WEEK...CAA WILL
BRING A THERMAL TROUGH INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL DROP TEMPS WELL
BELOW SEASONAL AVG. AM NOT ANTICIPATED ANY FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES
AT THIS TIME BUT MAY NEED TO MONITOR IN THE FUTURE AS THE ENTIRE
AREA IS NOW IN THE GROWING SEASON. EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR
THE WEEKEND AND TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

MONDAY AND BEYOND...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL HELP TEMPS REACH SEASONAL
CONDITIONS. APPEARS THAT THERE IS LIMITED MOISTURE...HOWEVER
CANNOT RULE OUT A SPOT SHOWER OR TWO...ESP IF SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

OVERVIEW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE OF
STRATUS AND FOG THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH
IFR PERSISTING AT ACK AND STRATUS/PATCHY FOG ACROSS NE MA TO BOS
HARBOR. EXPECT THE IFR CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY EXPAND SW ACROSS
THE REGION LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHILE THE FOG BANK NEAR THE
ISLANDS GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTH. SCT CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS/TSTMS. WIDESPREAD
IFR/LIFR LIKELY TONIGHT...GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO VFR 14-16Z AS SW
WINDS DEVELOP...BUT IFR MAY PERSIST MOST OF THE DAY AT ACK.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN LOWERING TREND...LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. IFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL
REDEVELOP...POSSIBLY AS SOON AS LATE AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT CONDITIONS LOWER TO IFR
TONIGHT. EXACT TIMING UNCERTAIN.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENTS. VERY UNSETTLED
PATTERN WITH VARIABILITY BETWEEN VFR CONDITIONS AND MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS IN SHRA/TSRA/FOG. IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA MOST OF TODAY. LEANED MORE HEAVILY UPON THE SWAN WAVE
GUIDANCE AS THE WNA WAVE GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE TOO HIGH. STILL
EXPECTING AREAS OF FOG TO PERSIST THROUGH TODAY BEFORE EXPANDING
ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT.

INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS WEDNESDAY MAY LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF
MARGINAL 5 FT SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OUTER COASTAL WATERS OF MA
AND RI. WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
RIGHT NOW TO AVOID CONFUSION WITH EXISTING ADVISORY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM
WILL INCREASE SEAS ABOVE 5FT DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...SCA WILL BE
NEEDED. EXPECT LOW VSBYS IN HEAVY SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDER AS WELL.
BELIEVE FRIDAY IS THE BETTER DAY FOR TSTORMS ACROSS THE WATERS AS
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY.

THIS WEEKEND...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SEAS WILL REMAIN ABOVE SCA
FOR MOST OF THE WEEKEND ESP FOR THE OUTER WATERS. GUSTY NW BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL BRING GUSTS CLOSE TO GALE FORCE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN

000
FXUS61 KOKX 211743
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
143 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY
EVENING INTO EARLY FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ADVECTION FOG/STRATUS REMAINS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF SUFFOLK
COUNTY. DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 6 PM...THOUGH I EXPECT TO
EXTEND THIS AT 4 PM.

FULL SUN HEATING WELL UNDERWAY WITH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S
EXCEPT FOR THOSE REGIONS ALONG THE COAST (59 AT FIRE ISLAND IN THE
FOG AT LAST CHECK).

SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY NOW OVER THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY WITH
OVER 3000 J/KG OF SFC BASED CAPE WITH LI`S NEAR -8 C. EXPECT DEEP
CONVECTION TO FIRE OVER THE CATSKILLS BY 2 PM AND THEN SINK
SOUTHWARD. FIRST STORM ON LAKE BREEZE BETWEEN SYR AND ROC HAD
GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL WITH IT. WITH LIMITED SHEAR...SEVERE WIND
POTENTIAL IS LOW...BUT HAIL AND MORE POSSIBLY FLOODING COULD BE AN
ISSUE. FFG IS OVER 2 INCHES IN ONE HOUR...BUT SAW THE CAM`S
PRODUCING THESE AMOUNTS. WITH THE WEAK SHEAR AND PWAT`S NEAT 1.5
INCHES...HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
ANY LINGERING CONVECTION THIS EVENING DIMINISHES IN COVERAGE AS IS
SAGS SOUTH. MAIN ISSUE LATTER TONIGHT WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
FOG ONCE AGAIN AS SOUTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL AND THE AIRMASS REMAINS
QUITE MOIST.

LOWS WILL BE QUITE WARM...60S PER MOS.

FOR WEDNESDAY...RIDGE SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST AS UPSTREAM TROUGH
FINALLY MAKES EASTWARD PROGRESS. HOWEVER...ANOTHER WARM DAY IS ON
TAP. MORNING FOG AND STRATUS WILL GIVE WAY TO AT LEAST PARTIAL
SUNSHINE. CONVECTION SHOULD BE SCATTERED AT BEST WITH ONLY WEAK TO
MARGINAL INSTABILITY IN PLACE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHEAST FROM NEAR THE CANADIAN
BORDER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING TRIGGERING SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FRONT WILL THEN MOVE OFFSHORE BY
FRIDAY MORNING WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG
IT...KEEPING SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

EXPECT HIGHS ON THURSDAY TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT IN UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DROP SOUTHEAST FROM CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE CENTRAL US AND BUILD
EASTWARD THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY. HIGHS SATURDAY THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 WITH LOWS IN THE
MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN N OF THE REGION THRU TNGT.

ISOLD-SCT TSTMS EXPECTED THIS AFTN AND EVE...MAINLY N AND W OF THE
CITY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY TSTMS WHICH FORM ACROSS NERN NJ
TO SLOWLY TRACK ESE TOWARDS THE CITY AND WEAKEN. THERE COULD BE
SOME DIRECT IMPACTS ESPECIALLY KTEB IF THIS OCCURS.
OTHERWISE...VFR WITH SLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.

IFR FOG SHOULD RETURN TNGT. ANY TSTMS COULD ALTER THE TIMING. LGT
SLY FLOW...VRB AT TIMES...CAN BE EXPECTED.

CONDITIONS WILL BE SLOWER TO IMPROVE ON WED. THINK IFR MOST AREAS
TIL AT LEAST 14-17Z. POTENTIAL FOR IFR OR MVFR TO REMAIN IN PLACE
ALL DAY ON THE COASTS WITH PERHAPS A FEW BREAKS.


     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: FOG MAY DEVELOP QUICKER THAN TAFS INDICATE
THIS EVE. TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN N OF THE TERMINAL THIS EVE
ATTM.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: ALTHOUGH TSTMS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO
REMAIN N OF THE TERMINAL THIS EVE...THERE IS A LOW PROB THAT A
WEAKENING TSTM COULD IMPACT THE TERMINAL.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: THERE IS A LOW PROB OF TSTMS INVOF THE
TERMINAL THIS EVE. MOST ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN N OF THE
ARPT.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: ALTHOUGH MOST TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN N
OF THE ARPT...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ACTIVITY INVOF THE ARPT
THIS AFTN AND EVE.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: ALTHOUGH MOST TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN N
OF THE ARPT...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ACTIVITY INVOF THE ARPT
THIS AFTN AND EVE.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: THE FOG MAY DEVELOP QUICKER THAN THE TAFS
INDICATE THIS EVE.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WED AFTN...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE COAST...VFR INTERIOR. SCT SHRA
AND TSTMS POSSIBLE.
.WED NIGHT...SCT SHRA AND TSTMS POSSIBLE. IFR POSSIBLE IN FOG AND
STRATUS.
.THU-FRI...NUMEROUS SHRA AND TSTMS POSSIBLE. IFR POSSIBLE IN FOG AND
STRATUS.
.SAT...RESIDUAL SHRA BEHIND A COLD FRONT WITH MVFR. BECOMING VFR
WITH NW WINDS INCREASING TO 20-30KT.
.SUN...VFR WITH NW WINDS 20-25KT.

&&

.MARINE...
DENSE FOG ACROSS THE WATERS NEAR SHORE OCEAN AND GREAT SOUTH BAY.
THIS ADVECTION FOG IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY.

SOUTH WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SUB SCA CONDITIONS.

CONTINUED SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IS FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS TO THE NORTH. SEAS WILL
REMAIN BELOW 5 FT OVER THE OCEAN WATERS...1 FT OR LESS ELSEWHERE
TODAY AND LIKELY TONIGHT.

LATEST WAVE WATCH III GUIDANCE FOR THE OCEAN WATERS SUGGEST 5 TO
6 FT SEAS BY WEDNESDAY DUE TO PERSISTENT SOUTH FLOW AND POSSIBLE
SOUTHERLY SWELL. HOWEVER...WAVE WATCH HAS BEEN OVER FORECASTING
SEAS BY A FOOT OR TWO...SO CONFIDENCE IN THIS HAPPENING IS NOT
HIGH AT THIS TIME.

SEAS EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE SCA LEVELS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH 25 KT
WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN WATERS BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WATERS THURSDAY EVENING INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE ON
LATE ON FRIDAY. WINDS COULD BE BELOW SCA LEVELS BY FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH SEAS REMAINING ABOVE SCA CRITERIA THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCT TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING WITH UP TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE.

SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS WED-THU WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...WITH THE BEST CHANCES NORTH/WEST OF NYC. TOTAL BASIN
AVG QPF FOR WED-THU COULD BE 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMTS IN TSTMS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ080-081.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ345-350-
     353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...TONGUE
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...

000
FXUS61 KALY 211731
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
131 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMING STATIONARY OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK
AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  A DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS SOME SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MID AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE
HUMID AND UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES TOMORROW AND THURSDAY WITH
MORE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE A COLD FRONT
RETURNS DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
     SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...

AS 100 PM EDT...THE AIR MASS HAVE BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE IN
THE WARM SECTOR IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY PM WITH TEMPS
GETTING CLOSE TO CONVECTIVE TEMPS...AND ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTION
FIRING OVER WRN-CNTRL NY. TEMPS HAVE BEEN RAISED TO THE MID AND
U80S OVER PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY. THERE MAYBE A FEW READINGS CLOSE TO 90F TOO NEAR KPOU.
ELSEWHERE TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE INTO THE U70S TO M80S.

ALSO...SFC DEWPTS HAVE RISEN INTO THE MID AND U60S OVER A LARGE
PORTION OF THE FCST. THE LATEST SPC MESO ANALYSIS PAGE INDICATES
SBCAPES HAVE REACHED 2000-3000+ J/KG FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
SOUTH AND EAST. MUCH LESS INSTABILITY NORTHWARD. THE 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE IN THE SRN ZONES WITH LESS THAN 20
KTS...BUT TO THE NORTH THE SHEAR VALUES ARE 30-35 KTS.
THEREFORE...BETTER...DEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTION...IS POSSIBLE FROM
THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH...WITH PULSE CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH.
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE APPROACHING THE 6.5 C/KM RANGE. IT
APPEARS THE GREATER THREAT WOULD BE WIND...BUT WE WILL MENTION
GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL FOR NOW...AND UPGRADE IF WE GET A
CONVECTIVE WATCH.

NOW...UPSTREAM...A POSSIBLE REMNANT MCV IS MOVING ACROSS SE
ONTARIO. THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE THE FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR
POSSIBLE STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION /ASIDE FROM THE PULSE
CONVECTION/. THE 12Z KALB SOUNDING DOES INDICATE A MID LEVEL CAP
BTWN 500-550 HPA THAT WILL NEED TO BE ERODED FOR ROBUST SEVERE
WEATHER.

AT THIS POINT THINKING IS FOR ISOLATED SEVERE /5 OR LESS
REPORTS/...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND UPDATE. THE LATEST
HIRES WRF INDICATES ISOLD-SCT CONVECTION WITH ANY STRONGER CELLS
OVER THE NRN TIER TOWARDS 00Z/WED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ONGOING CONVECTION THIS EVENING LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS
THE SFC WAVE MOVES ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE BEST CHC FOR SEEING
SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA.
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...ANY SVR THREAT WILL BE DIMINISHED...BUT
THUNDER SHOULD STILL CONTINUE DUE TO LINGERING ELEVATED
INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MILD AND
MUGGY WITH UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ACROSS THE AREA.

THE SFC BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.
THE RIDGE AXIS WILL START TO SHIFT EASTWARD AS THE UPPER LOW OVER
THE PLAINS SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD. DESPITE THE WEAK LARGE SCALE
FORCING...THERE LOOKS TO BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS AS
A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH MAY BE IN PLACE ACROSS OUR AREA BY AFTN.
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE...ESP WITH
WARM TEMPS REACHING THE 80S IN MOST AREAS...AND TDS IN THE MID 60S
F. ANY STORM WILL AGAIN BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS/LARGE HAIL...AND SPC HAS PLACED A GOOD CHUNK OF OUR AREA IN
A SLIGHT RISK FOR SVR STORMS. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HWO AS
WELL.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER AGAIN INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH CONTINUED MILD AND MUGGY CONDITIONS. MINS WILL ONLY DROP INTO
THE 60S...WITH MID TO UPPER 60S IN THE HUDSON VALLEY.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO MAKE SOME STEADY EASTWARD
PROGRESS ON THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. A SFC COLD FRONT WILL
ADVANCE EASTWARD DURING THIS TIME AS WELL. THIS FRONT WILL BE A
FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESP FOR THURSDAY
AFTN INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...THERE WILL BE
ONE LAST WARM AND MUGGY DAY...WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S. MIN TEMPS
WILL START TO COOL OFF BY THURSDAY NIGHT WILL THE BOUNDARY MOVING
THROUGH...WITH MINS IN THE 40S AND 50S ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE
MILDEST TEMPS IN SOUTHEASTERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT SHOULD EXIT THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY WITH
LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING IN NY AND INTO
THE AFTERNOON IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.  THERE SHOULD BE DECENT
BOUNDARY LAYER FORCING WITH A TIGHT THERMAL AND MOISTURE GRADIENT
ALONG THE COLD FRONT...SO WILL KEEP AN EYE FOR ANY STRONG
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL
THROUGH THE DAY...AND HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE CAPPED AROUND THE
MID 60S TO AROUND 70...BUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.

ONCE THE COLD FRONT IS GONE...HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS IN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. SOME
LINGERING CLOUDINESS COULD AFFECT THE MID HUDSON VALLEY INTO WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT COULD BE SLOW TO EXIT THOSE
AREAS. HOWEVER...ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF OUR
AREA.  HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...UPPER 50S SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...INCREASING SUNSHINE AND SLOWLY MODERATING
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 AND ON
MONDAY...HIGHS AROUND 70 TO THE LOWER 70S.  TEMPERATURES COOLER IN
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS BOTH DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF THE FA ALONG WITH SOME
WHICH DEVELOP ACRS THE FA THIS AFTERNOON COULD AFFECT THE TAF
SITES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES OF
ANY STORM IMPACTING THE TAF SITES...JUST PLACING VCSH AT ALL
SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LATER IN THE EVENING...SOME FOG
AND LOW CEILINGS COULD POTENTIALLY FORM WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. THIS
WILL BREAK WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD MIDDAY...SO HAVE PLACED VCSH IN TAFS AT
15Z WED.

LIGHT WINDS SHOULD BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 KT OR LESS
TODAY...THEN DIMINISH BACK TO LIGHT THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AND
THEN BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 7 KTS ON WEDNESDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
WED...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA/-TSRA ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTN.
WED NIGHT...VFR/MVFR. AT KGFL AND KALB -SHRA/-TSRA LIKELY. AT KPSF
AND KPOU CHC -SHRA/-TSRA.
THU...MVFR WITH IFR POSSIBLE. -SHRA/-TSRA LIKELY.
THU NIGHT...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA/-TSRA ESPECIALLY IN THE EVNG.
FRI...MAINLY VFR. CHC -TSRA MAINLY IN THE AM.
SAT-SUN...VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY DUE TO ON AND OFF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. RH VALUES WILL RECOVER
TO NEAR 100 PERCENT AT NIGHT...AND RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY STAY
ABOVE 50 PERCENT DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO SERVICE AREAS PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5
DAYS. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS OF RAINFALL MAY OCCUR TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORMS. 3-HR ZONAL FFG VALUES ARE
GENERALLY IN THE 2.4-3.1 INCH RANGE AT THIS TIME...WHICH ARE HIGH
FOR MID TO LATE MAY.

DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
BASIN AVERAGE QPF WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE THIS WEEK. THE BEST
THREAT FOR SEEING SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. WHILE IT/S DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT
EXACT AMOUNTS...GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER /WPC/
SUGGESTS THAT MOST AREAS WILL SEE BETWEEN ONE HALF INCH AND AN INCH
AND A HALF OF RAIN THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...WITH THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/LFM/WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/LFM/WASULA
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/WASULA

000
FXUS61 KOKX 211718
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
118 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY
EVENING INTO EARLY FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ADVECTION FOG/STRATUS REMAINS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF SUFFOLK
COUNTY. DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 6 PM...THOUGH I EXPECT TO
EXTEND THIS AT 4 PM.

FULL SUN HEATING WELL UNDERWAY WITH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S
EXCEPT FOR THOSE REGIONS ALONG THE COAST (59 AT FIRE ISLAND IN THE
FOG AT LAST CHECK).

SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY NOW OVER THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY WITH
OVER 3000 J/KG OF SFC BASED CAPE WITH LI`S NEAR -8 C. EXPECT DEEP
CONVECTION TO FIRE OVER THE CATSKILLS BY 2 PM AND THEN SINK
SOUTHWARD. FIRST STORM ON LAKE BREEZE BETWEEN SYR AND ROC HAD
GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL WITH IT. WITH LIMITED SHEAR...SEVERE WIND
POTENTIAL IS LOW...BUT HAIL AND MORE POSSIBLY FLOODING COULD BE AN
ISSUE. FFG IS OVER 2 INCHES IN ONE HOUR...BUT SAW THE CAM`S
PRODUCING THESE AMOUNTS. WITH THE WEAK SHEAR AND PWAT`S NEAT 1.5
INCHES...HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
ANY LINGERING CONVECTION THIS EVENING DIMINISHES IN COVERAGE AS IS
SAGS SOUTH. MAIN ISSUE LATTER TONIGHT WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
FOG ONCE AGAIN AS SOUTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL AND THE AIRMASS REMAINS
QUITE MOIST.

LOWS WILL BE QUITE WARM...60S PER MOS.

FOR WEDNESDAY...RIDGE SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST AS UPSTREAM TROUGH
FINALLY MAKES EASTWARD PROGRESS. HOWEVER...ANOTHER WARM DAY IS ON
TAP. MORNING FOG AND STRATUS WILL GIVE WAY TO AT LEAST PARTIAL
SUNSHINE. CONVECTION SHOULD BE SCATTERED AT BEST WITH ONLY WEAK TO
MARGINAL INSTABILITY IN PLACE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHEAST FROM NEAR THE CANADIAN
BORDER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING TRIGGERING SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FRONT WILL THEN MOVE OFFSHORE BY
FRIDAY MORNING WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG
IT...KEEPING SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

EXPECT HIGHS ON THURSDAY TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT IN UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DROP SOUTHEAST FROM CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE CENTRAL US AND BUILD
EASTWARD THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY. HIGHS SATURDAY THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 WITH LOWS IN THE
MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM W TO E THROUGH NEW ENGLAND WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TODAY. IT MAY SINK SLIGHTLY S BUT IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN N OF THE TERMINALS.

SLY FLOW TODAY WITH MAINLY VFR. VSBY REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE KJFK-
KISP...HOWEVER THE NRN EDGE OF THE IFR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST S
OF THE TERMINALS ATTM.

AIRMASS WILL BE VERY UNSTABLE THIS AFTN AND EVE...ESPECIALLY N
AND W OF THE CITY. ISOLD-SCT TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH
LOCATIONS FROM KBDR-KHPN-KSWF THE HIGHEST PROB OF BEING DIRECTLY
IMPACTED. ISOLD CELLS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ANYWHERE EXCEPT PERHAPS
LONG ISLAND.

SLY ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TNGT. POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD IFR
OR LOWER.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CHC OF EVENING CONVECTION. MVFR OR LOWER
POSSIBLE BEFORE 00Z WITH FOG RETURNING.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CHC OF EVENING CONVECTION.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CHC OF EVENING CONVECTION.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS YELLOW...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR HZ IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR AROUND
15-16Z. LOW CHC OF EVENING CONVECTION.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TSTMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTN AND EVE.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: PERIODS OF MVFR HZ POSSIBLE TODAY. IFR MAY
COME IN MUCH EARLIER THAN TAFS INDICATE THIS EVE.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WED...IFR IN FOG AND STRATUS IMPROVING TO VFR IN THE MORNING. SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS IN THE AFTN/EVE.
.WED NIGHT-FRI...SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS. AT NIGHT...IFR POSSIBLE WITH
STRATUS/FOG.
.SAT...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
DENSE FOG ACROSS THE WATERS NEAR SHORE OCEAN AND GREAT SOUTH BAY.
THIS ADVECTION FOG IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY.

SOUTH WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SUB SCA CONDITIONS.

CONTINUED SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IS FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS TO THE NORTH. SEAS WILL
REMAIN BELOW 5 FT OVER THE OCEAN WATERS...1 FT OR LESS ELSEWHERE
TODAY AND LIKELY TONIGHT.

LATEST WAVE WATCH III GUIDANCE FOR THE OCEAN WATERS SUGGEST 5 TO
6 FT SEAS BY WEDNESDAY DUE TO PERSISTENT SOUTH FLOW AND POSSIBLE
SOUTHERLY SWELL. HOWEVER...WAVE WATCH HAS BEEN OVER FORECASTING
SEAS BY A FOOT OR TWO...SO CONFIDENCE IN THIS HAPPENING IS NOT
HIGH AT THIS TIME.

SEAS EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE SCA LEVELS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH 25 KT
WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN WATERS BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WATERS THURSDAY EVENING INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE ON
LATE ON FRIDAY. WINDS COULD BE BELOW SCA LEVELS BY FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH SEAS REMAINING ABOVE SCA CRITERIA THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCT TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING WITH UP TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE.

SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS WED-THU WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...WITH THE BEST CHANCES NORTH/WEST OF NYC. TOTAL BASIN
AVG QPF FOR WED-THU COULD BE 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMTS IN TSTMS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ080-081.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ345-350-
     353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...

000
FXUS61 KALY 211704
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
104 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMING STATIONARY OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK
AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  A DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS SOME SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MID AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE
HUMID AND UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES TOMORROW AND THURSDAY WITH
MORE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE A COLD FRONT
RETURNS DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
...SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...

AS 100 PM EDT...THE AIR MASS HAVE BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE IN
THE WARM SECTOR IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY PM WITH TEMPS
GETTING CLOSE TO CONVECTIVE TEMPS...AND ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTION
FIRING OVER WRN-CNTRL NY. TEMPS HAVE BEEN RAISED TO THE MID AND
U80S OVER PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY. THERE MAYBE A FEW READINGS CLOSE TO 90F TOO NEAR KPOU.
ELSEWHERE TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE INTO THE U70S TO M80S.

ALSO...SFC DEWPTS HAVE RISEN INTO THE MID AND U60S OVER A LARGE
PORTION OF THE FCST. THE LATEST SPC MESO ANALYSIS PAGE INDICATES
SBCAPES HAVE REACHED 2000-3000+ J/KG FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
SOUTH AND EAST. MUCH LESS INSTABILITY NORTHWARD. THE 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE IN THE SRN ZONES WITH LESS THAN 20
KTS...BUT TO THE NORTH THE SHEAR VALUES ARE 30-35 KTS.
THEREFORE...BETTER...DEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTION...IS POSSIBLE FROM
THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH...WITH PULSE CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH.
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE APPROACHING THE 6.5 C/KM RANGE. IT
APPEARS THE GREATER THREAT WOULD BE WIND...BUT WE WILL MENTION
GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL FOR NOW...AND UPGRADE IF WE GET A
CONVECTIVE WATCH.

NOW...UPSTREAM...A POSSIBLE REMNANT MCV IS MOVING ACROSS SE
ONTARIO. THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE THE FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR
POSSIBLE STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION /ASIDE FROM THE PULSE
CONVECTION/. THE 12Z KALB SOUNDING DOES INDICATE A MID LEVEL CAP
BTWN 500-550 HPA THAT WILL NEED TO BE ERODED FOR ROBUST SEVERE
WEATHER.

AT THIS POINT THINKING IS FOR ISOLATED SEVERE /5 OR LESS
REPORTS/...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND UPDATE. THE LATEST
HIRES WRF INDICATES ISOLD-SCT CONVECTION WITH ANY STRONGER CELLS
OVER THE NRN TIER TOWARDS 00Z/WED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ONGOING CONVECTION THIS EVENING LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS
THE SFC WAVE MOVES ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE BEST CHC FOR SEEING
SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA.
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...ANY SVR THREAT WILL BE DIMINISHED...BUT
THUNDER SHOULD STILL CONTINUE DUE TO LINGERING ELEVATED
INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MILD AND
MUGGY WITH UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ACROSS THE AREA.

THE SFC BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.
THE RIDGE AXIS WILL START TO SHIFT EASTWARD AS THE UPPER LOW OVER
THE PLAINS SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD. DESPITE THE WEAK LARGE SCALE
FORCING...THERE LOOKS TO BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS AS
A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH MAY BE IN PLACE ACROSS OUR AREA BY AFTN.
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE...ESP WITH
WARM TEMPS REACHING THE 80S IN MOST AREAS...AND TDS IN THE MID 60S
F. ANY STORM WILL AGAIN BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS/LARGE HAIL...AND SPC HAS PLACED A GOOD CHUNK OF OUR AREA IN
A SLIGHT RISK FOR SVR STORMS. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HWO AS
WELL.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER AGAIN INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH CONTINUED MILD AND MUGGY CONDITIONS. MINS WILL ONLY DROP INTO
THE 60S...WITH MID TO UPPER 60S IN THE HUDSON VALLEY.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO MAKE SOME STEADY EASTWARD
PROGRESS ON THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. A SFC COLD FRONT WILL
ADVANCE EASTWARD DURING THIS TIME AS WELL. THIS FRONT WILL BE A
FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESP FOR THURSDAY
AFTN INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...THERE WILL BE
ONE LAST WARM AND MUGGY DAY...WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S. MIN TEMPS
WILL START TO COOL OFF BY THURSDAY NIGHT WILL THE BOUNDARY MOVING
THROUGH...WITH MINS IN THE 40S AND 50S ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE
MILDEST TEMPS IN SOUTHEASTERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT SHOULD EXIT THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY WITH
LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING IN NY AND INTO
THE AFTERNOON IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.  THERE SHOULD BE DECENT
BOUNDARY LAYER FORCING WITH A TIGHT THERMAL AND MOISTURE GRADIENT
ALONG THE COLD FRONT...SO WILL KEEP AN EYE FOR ANY STRONG
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL
THROUGH THE DAY...AND HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE CAPPED AROUND THE
MID 60S TO AROUND 70...BUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.

ONCE THE COLD FRONT IS GONE...HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS IN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. SOME
LINGERING CLOUDINESS COULD AFFECT THE MID HUDSON VALLEY INTO WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT COULD BE SLOW TO EXIT THOSE
AREAS. HOWEVER...ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF OUR
AREA.  HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...UPPER 50S SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...INCREASING SUNSHINE AND SLOWLY MODERATING
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 AND ON
MONDAY...HIGHS AROUND 70 TO THE LOWER 70S.  TEMPERATURES COOLER IN
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS BOTH DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOME TYPICAL EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AFFECTING ALL SITES
AND SHOULD LIFT BY 14Z WHEN CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME VFR...EXCEPT
BY 16Z AT KPSF. THERE IS ANOTHER SMALL CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER LAKE ONTARIO THAT COULD APPROACH KGFL LATE THIS
MORNING OR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT TOO EARLY AND TOO ISOLATED
TO MENTION IN TAF AT THIS TIME OTHER THAN PUTTING A VCSH.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE OH VALLEY AND CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES THIS MORNING COULD AFFECT OUR REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...IF THEY HOLD TOGETHER TO TRACK THIS FAR EAST.  AGAIN...DUE
TO UNCERTAINTIES...JUST PUTTING VCSH AT ALL SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. LATER IN THE EVENING...SOME FOG AND LOW CEILINGS COULD
POTENTIALLY FORM WITH MVFR CONDITIONS.

LIGHT WINDS SHOULD BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 KT OR LESS
TODAY...THEN DIMINISH BACK TO LIGHT THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
WED...VFR/MVFR CHC -SHRA/-TSRA ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTN.
WED NIGHT...VFR/MVFR. AT KGFL AND KALB -SHRA/-TSRA LIKELY. AT
KPSF AND KPOU CHC -SHRA/-TSRA.
THU...MVFR WITH IFR POSSIBLE. -SHRA/-TSRA LIKELY.
THU NIGHT...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA/-TSRA ESPECIALLY IN THE EVNG.
FRI...MAINLY VFR. CHC -TSRA MAINLY IN THE AM.
SAT...VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY DUE TO ON AND OFF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. RH VALUES WILL RECOVER
TO NEAR 100 PERCENT AT NIGHT...AND RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY STAY
ABOVE 50 PERCENT DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO SERVICE AREAS PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5
DAYS. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS OF RAINFALL MAY OCCUR TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORMS. 3-HR ZONAL FFG VALUES ARE
GENERALLY IN THE 2.4-3.1 INCH RANGE AT THIS TIME...WHICH ARE HIGH
FOR MID TO LATE MAY.

DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
BASIN AVERAGE QPF WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE THIS WEEK. THE BEST
THREAT FOR SEEING SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. WHILE IT/S DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT
EXACT AMOUNTS...GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER /WPC/
SUGGESTS THAT MOST AREAS WILL SEE BETWEEN ONE HALF INCH AND AN INCH
AND A HALF OF RAIN THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...WITH THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/LFM/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/WASULA

000
FXUS61 KOKX 211501
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1101 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOG/STRATUS HAS BURNED OFF IN ALL AREAS EXPECT THE SOUTH SHORE OF
LONG ISLAND WHERE ADVECTION FOG IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT. BASED ON WEB CAMS SHOWING NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY...WE
HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN NASSAU AND SUFFOLK
THROUGH 6 PM. THIS WILL LIKELY BE ADJUSTED THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN
EXTENDED THIS EVENING.

OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES EARLY ALLOW FOR FULL SUN HEATING.
THUS...TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S EXCEPT FOR THOSE REGIONS ALONG THE
COAST.

THE HEATING RESULTS IN SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY THIS AFTN. LATEST NWP
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE WELL OVER 2000 J/KG OF SFC BASED CAPE
WITH LI`S NEAR -8 C IN THE NORTHERN ZONES. SOME SREF SOUNDING ARE
OVER 3000 J/KG. THUS...FULLY EXPECT DEEP CONVECTION TO FIRE THIS
AFTERNOON AND SINK SOUTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS IN
AGREEMENT WITH LATEST RUNS OF THE CAM`S - HRRR...SPC WRF AND NSSL
WRF.

WITH LIMITED SHEAR...SEVERE POTENTIAL IS LOW. THINKING THOUGH
THAT FLOODING COULD BE AN ISSUE. FFG IS OVER 2 INCHES IN ONE
HOUR...BUT SEE THE CAM`S PRODUCING THESE AMOUNTS. WITH THE WEAK
SHEAR AND PWAT`S NEAT 1.5 INCHES...WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS. MAY
HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WITH 1 PM UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
ANY LINGERING CONVECTION THIS EVENING DIMINISHES IN COVERAGE AS IS
SAGS SOUTH. MAIN ISSUE LATTER TONIGHT WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
FOG ONCE AGAIN AS SOUTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL AND THE AIRMASS REMAINS
QUITE MOIST.

LOWS WILL BE QUITE WARM...60S PER MOS.

FOR WEDNESDAY...RIDGE SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST AS UPSTREAM TROUGH
FINALLY MAKES EASTWARD PROGRESS. HOWEVER...ANOTHER WARM DAY IS ON
TAP. MORNING FOG AND STRATUS WILL GIVE WAY TO AT LEAST PARTIAL
SUNSHINE. ONCE AGAIN...CONVECTION SHOULD BE SCATTERED AT BEST WITH
WEAK TO MARGINAL INSTABILITY IN PLACE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHEAST FROM NEAR THE CANADIAN
BORDER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING TRIGGERING SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FRONT WILL THEN MOVE OFFSHORE BY
FRIDAY MORNING WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG
IT...KEEPING SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

EXPECT HIGHS ON THURSDAY TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT IN UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DROP SOUTHEAST FROM CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE CENTRAL US AND BUILD
EASTWARD THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY. HIGHS SATURDAY THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 WITH LOWS IN THE
MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM W TO E THROUGH NEW ENGLAND WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TODAY. IT MAY SINK SLIGHTLY S BUT IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN N OF THE TERMINALS.

SLY FLOW TODAY WITH MAINLY VFR. VSBY REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE KJFK-
KISP...HOWEVER THE NRN EDGE OF THE IFR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST S
OF THE TERMINALS ATTM.

AIRMASS WILL BE VERY UNSTABLE THIS AFTN AND EVE...ESPECIALLY N
AND W OF THE CITY. ISOLD-SCT TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH
LOCATIONS FROM KBDR-KHPN-KSWF THE HIGHEST PROB OF BEING DIRECTLY
IMPACTED. ISOLD CELLS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ANYWHERE EXCEPT PERHAPS
LONG ISLAND.

SLY ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TNGT. POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD IFR
OR LOWER.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CHC OF EVENING CONVECTION. MVFR OR LOWER
POSSIBLE BEFORE 00Z WITH FOG RETURNING.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CHC OF EVENING CONVECTION.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CHC OF EVENING CONVECTION.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS YELLOW...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR HZ IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR AROUND
15-16Z. LOW CHC OF EVENING CONVECTION.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TSTMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTN AND EVE.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: PERIODS OF MVFR HZ POSSIBLE TODAY. IFR MAY
COME IN MUCH EARLIER THAN TAFS INDICATE THIS EVE.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WED...IFR IN FOG AND STRATUS IMPROVING TO VFR IN THE MORNING. SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS IN THE AFTN/EVE.
.WED NIGHT-FRI...SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS. AT NIGHT...IFR POSSIBLE WITH
STRATUS/FOG.
.SAT...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
DENSE FOG ACROSS THE WATERS NEAR SHORE OCEAN AND GREAT SOUTH BAY.
THIS ADVECTION FOG IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY.

SOUTH WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SUB SCA CONDITIONS.

CONTINUED SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IS FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS TO THE NORTH. SEAS WILL
REMAIN BELOW 5 FT OVER THE OCEAN WATERS...1 FT OR LESS ELSEWHERE
TODAY AND LIKELY TONIGHT.

LATEST WAVE WATCH III GUIDANCE FOR THE OCEAN WATERS SUGGEST 5 TO
6 FT SEAS BY WEDNESDAY DUE TO PERSISTENT SOUTH FLOW AND POSSIBLE
SOUTHERLY SWELL. HOWEVER...WAVE WATCH HAS BEEN OVER FORECASTING
SEAS BY A FOOT OR TWO...SO CONFIDENCE IN THIS HAPPENING IS NOT
HIGH AT THIS TIME.

SEAS EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE SCA LEVELS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH 25 KT
WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN WATERS BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WATERS THURSDAY EVENING INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE ON
LATE ON FRIDAY. WINDS COULD BE BELOW SCA LEVELS BY FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH SEAS REMAINING ABOVE SCA CRITERIA THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCT TSTMS LATE IN THE DAY TODAY...MAINLY INLAND. POSSIBLE
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WITH UP TO 3 INCHES.

SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS WED-THU WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...WITH THE BEST CHANCES NORTH/WEST OF NYC. TOTAL BASIN
AVG QPF FOR WED-THU COULD BE 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMTS IN TSTMS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ080-081-
     179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ345-350-
     353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...TONGUE
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...

000
FXUS61 KOKX 211445
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1045 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOG/STRATUS HAS BURNED OFF IN ALL AREAS EXPECT THE SOUTH SHORE OF
LONG ISLAND WHERE ADVECTION FOG IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT. BASED ON WEB CAMS SHOWING NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY...WE
HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN NASSAU AND SUFFOLK
THROUGH 6 PM. THIS WILL LIKELY BE ADJUSTED THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN
EXTENDED THIS EVENING.

OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES EARLY ALLOW FOR FULL SUN HEATING.
THUS...TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S EXCEPT FOR THOSE REGIONS ALONG THE
COAST.

THE HEATING RESULTS IN SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY THIS AFTN. LATEST NWP
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE WELL OVER 2000 J/KG OF SFC BASED CAPE
WITH LI`S NEAR -8 C IN THE NORTHERN ZONES. SOME SREF SOUNDING ARE
OVER 3000 J/KG. THUS...FULLY EXPECT DEEP CONVECTION TO FIRE THIS
AFTERNOON AND SINK SOUTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS IN
AGREEMENT WITH LATEST RUNS OF THE CAM`S - HRRR...SPC WRF AND NSSL
WRF.

WITH LIMITED SHEAR...SEVERE POTENTIAL IS LOW. THINKING THOUGH
THAT FLOODING COULD BE AN ISSUE. FFG IS OVER 2 INCHES IN ONE
HOUR...BUT SEE THE CAM`S PRODUCING THESE AMOUNTS. WITH THE WEAK
SHEAR AND PWAT`S NEAT 1.5 INCHES...WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS. MAY
HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WITH 1 PM UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
ANY LINGERING CONVECTION THIS EVENING DIMINISHES IN COVERAGE AS IS
SAGS SOUTH. MAIN ISSUE LATTER TONIGHT WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
FOG ONCE AGAIN AS SOUTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL AND THE AIRMASS REMAINS
QUITE MOIST.

LOWS WILL BE QUITE WARM...60S PER MOS.

FOR WEDNESDAY...RIDGE SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST AS UPSTREAM TROUGH
FINALLY MAKES EASTWARD PROGRESS. HOWEVER...ANOTHER WARM DAY IS ON
TAP. MORNING FOG AND STRATUS WILL GIVE WAY TO AT LEAST PARTIAL
SUNSHINE. ONCE AGAIN...CONVECTION SHOULD BE SCATTERED AT BEST WITH
WEAK TO MARGINAL INSTABILITY IN PLACE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHEAST FROM NEAR THE CANADIAN
BORDER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING TRIGGERING SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FRONT WILL THEN MOVE OFFSHORE BY
FRIDAY MORNING WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG
IT...KEEPING SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

EXPECT HIGHS ON THURSDAY TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT IN UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DROP SOUTHEAST FROM CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE CENTRAL US AND BUILD
EASTWARD THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY. HIGHS SATURDAY THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 WITH LOWS IN THE
MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM W TO E THROUGH NEW ENGLAND WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TODAY. IT MAY SINK SLIGHTLY S BUT IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN N OF THE TERMINALS.

STRATUS/FOG OVER THE TERMINALS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT AND BURN OFF
THIS MORNING. CONDS START OUT LIFR/IFR AND SHOULD LIFT BACK TO
VFR BETWEEN 14Z AND 16Z. VFR THEN EXPECTED INTO THE EVE BEFORE
FOG/STRATUS RETURNS.

MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG DOWN FROM THE NORTH WITH
A SFC TROUGH DEVELOPING IN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS. CONVECTION
WILL LIKELY FIRE NEAR BOTH OF THESE BOUNDARIES...BUT THERE`S SOME
QUESTION HOW FAR S AND E TSTMS WILL MAKE IT BEFORE THE FIZZLE DUE
TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ONLY HAVE TEMPO AT KSWF LATE THIS
AFTN/EARLY EVE FOR THIS.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR IMPROVING CONDS THIS
MORNING. LOW CHC OF EVENING CONVECTION.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR IMPROVING CONDS THIS
MORNING. LOW CHC OF EVENING CONVECTION.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR IMPROVING CONDS THIS
MORNING. LOW CHC OF EVENING CONVECTION.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS YELLOW...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR IMPROVING CONDS THIS
MORNING. LOW CHC OF EVENING CONVECTION.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR IMPROVING CONDS THIS
MORNING. LOW CHC OF EVENING CONVECTION.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR IMPROVING CONDS
THIS MORNING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WED...IFR IN FOG AND STRATUS IMPROVING TO VFR IN THE MORNING. SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS IN THE AFTN/EVE.
.WED NIGHT-FRI...SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS. AT NIGHT...IFR POSSIBLE WITH
STRATUS/FOG.
.SAT...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
DENSE FOG ACROSS THE WATERS NEAR SHORE OCEAN AND GREAT SOUTH BAY.
THIS ADVECTION FOG IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY.

SOUTH WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SUB SCA CONDITIONS.

CONTINUED SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IS FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS TO THE NORTH. SEAS WILL
REMAIN BELOW 5 FT OVER THE OCEAN WATERS...1 FT OR LESS ELSEWHERE
TODAY AND LIKELY TONIGHT.

LATEST WAVE WATCH III GUIDANCE FOR THE OCEAN WATERS SUGGEST 5 TO
6 FT SEAS BY WEDNESDAY DUE TO PERSISTENT SOUTH FLOW AND POSSIBLE
SOUTHERLY SWELL. HOWEVER...WAVE WATCH HAS BEEN OVER FORECASTING
SEAS BY A FOOT OR TWO...SO CONFIDENCE IN THIS HAPPENING IS NOT
HIGH AT THIS TIME.

SEAS EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE SCA LEVELS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH 25 KT
WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN WATERS BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WATERS THURSDAY EVENING INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE ON
LATE ON FRIDAY. WINDS COULD BE BELOW SCA LEVELS BY FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH SEAS REMAINING ABOVE SCA CRITERIA THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCT TSTMS LATE IN THE DAY TODAY...MAINLY INLAND. POSSIBLE
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WITH UP TO 3 INCHES.

SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS WED-THU WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...WITH THE BEST CHANCES NORTH/WEST OF NYC. TOTAL BASIN
AVG QPF FOR WED-THU COULD BE 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMTS IN TSTMS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ345-350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...TONGUE
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...

000
FXUS61 KALY 211445
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1045 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMING STATIONARY ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK AND NEW
ENGLAND.  A DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION. THE HUMID
AND UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES TOMORROW AND THURSDAY WITH MORE
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE A COLD FRONT RETURNS
DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1030 AM EDT...A BROAD RIDGE AT 500 HPA IS SITUATED OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS...WITH A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...OUR REGION REMAINS IN A WARM SECTOR WITH
SKY COVERAGE BEGINNING TO CLEAR OUT SOUTH OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL
REGION. A STATIONARY BOUNDARY IS SITTING JUST NORTH OF THE
IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION WHERE IT IS GENERATING A FEW SHOWERS OVER
THE NY/VT BORDER.

ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE
HEATING OF THE DAY AS A SFC WAVE ALONG THE FRONT BEGINS TO
APPROACH THE AREA. OUR LOCAL HIRES WRF SUGGESTS THAT SOME SHOWERS
OR STORMS MAY BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN BY THE LATE
MORNING OR EARLY AFTN HOURS. THE 3 KM HRRR GUIDANCE SEEMS TO SHOW
THAT IT COULD HOLD OFF UNTIL THE EARLY TO MID AFTN HOURS. IN
EITHER CASES...ONCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP THEY SHOULD
MOVE IN A GENERA-LY WEST TO EAST MANNER.

WITH MAX TEMPS REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS THE
AREA...AND TDS WELL INTO THE 60S...THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY FOR TSTMS. WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 20-35 KTS AND MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF ABOUT 6-7 DEGREES C PER KM...THERE COULD BE
ENOUGH OF THE INGREDIENTS IN PLACE TO ALLOW A STORM OR TWO TO
BECOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH IF ANY
STORMS GROW TALL ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. WE
WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS IN OUR HWO AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ONGOING CONVECTION THIS EVENING LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS
THE SFC WAVE MOVES ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE BEST CHC FOR SEEING
SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA.
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...ANY SVR THREAT WILL BE DIMINISHED...BUT
THUNDER SHOULD STILL CONTINUE DUE TO LINGERING ELEVATED
INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MILD AND
MUGGY WITH UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ACROSS THE AREA.

THE SFC BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.
THE RIDGE AXIS WILL START TO SHIFT EASTWARD AS THE UPPER LOW OVER
THE PLAINS SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD. DESPITE THE WEAK LARGE SCALE
FORCING...THERE LOOKS TO BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS AS
A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH MAY BE IN PLACE ACROSS OUR AREA BY AFTN.
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE...ESP WITH
WARM TEMPS REACHING THE 80S IN MOST AREAS...AND TDS IN THE MID 60S
F. ANY STORM WILL AGAIN BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS/LARGE HAIL...AND SPC HAS PLACED A GOOD CHUNK OF OUR AREA IN
A SLIGHT RISK FOR SVR STORMS. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HWO AS
WELL.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER AGAIN INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH CONTINUED MILD AND MUGGY CONDITIONS. MINS WILL ONLY DROP INTO
THE 60S...WITH MID TO UPPER 60S IN THE HUDSON VALLEY.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO MAKE SOME STEADY EASTWARD
PROGRESS ON THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. A SFC COLD FRONT WILL
ADVANCE EASTWARD DURING THIS TIME AS WELL. THIS FRONT WILL BE A
FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESP FOR THURSDAY
AFTN INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...THERE WILL BE
ONE LAST WARM AND MUGGY DAY...WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S. MIN TEMPS
WILL START TO COOL OFF BY THURSDAY NIGHT WILL THE BOUNDARY MOVING
THROUGH...WITH MINS IN THE 40S AND 50S ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE
MILDEST TEMPS IN SOUTHEASTERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT SHOULD EXIT THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY WITH
LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING IN NY AND INTO
THE AFTERNOON IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.  THERE SHOULD BE DECENT
BOUNDARY LAYER FORCING WITH A TIGHT THERMAL AND MOISTURE GRADIENT
ALONG THE COLD FRONT...SO WILL KEEP AN EYE FOR ANY STRONG
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL
THROUGH THE DAY...AND HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE CAPPED AROUND THE
MID 60S TO AROUND 70...BUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.

ONCE THE COLD FRONT IS GONE...HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS IN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. SOME
LINGERING CLOUDINESS COULD AFFECT THE MID HUDSON VALLEY INTO WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT COULD BE SLOW TO EXIT THOSE
AREAS. HOWEVER...ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF OUR
AREA.  HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...UPPER 50S SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...INCREASING SUNSHINE AND SLOWLY MODERATING
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 AND ON
MONDAY...HIGHS AROUND 70 TO THE LOWER 70S.  TEMPERATURES COOLER IN
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS BOTH DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SOME TYPICAL EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AFFECTING ALL SITES
AND SHOULD LIFT BY 14Z WHEN CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME VFR...EXCEPT
BY 16Z AT KPSF. THERE IS ANOTHER SMALL CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER LAKE ONTARIO THAT COULD APPROACH KGFL LATE THIS
MORNING OR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT TOO EARLY AND TOO ISOLATED
TO MENTION IN TAF AT THIS TIME OTHER THAN PUTTING A VCSH.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE OH VALLEY AND CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES THIS MORNING COULD AFFECT OUR REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...IF THEY HOLD TOGETHER TO TRACK THIS FAR EAST.  AGAIN...DUE
TO UNCERTAINTIES...JUST PUTTING VCSH AT ALL SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. LATER IN THE EVENING...SOME FOG AND LOW CEILINGS COULD
POTENTIALLY FORM WITH MVFR CONDITIONS.

LIGHT WINDS SHOULD BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 KT OR LESS
TODAY...THEN DIMINISH BACK TO LIGHT THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
WED...VFR/MVFR CHC -SHRA/-TSRA ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTN.
WED NIGHT...VFR/MVFR. AT KGFL AND KALB -SHRA/-TSRA LIKELY. AT
KPSF AND KPOU CHC -SHRA/-TSRA.
THU...MVFR WITH IFR POSSIBLE. -SHRA/-TSRA LIKELY.
THU NIGHT...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA/-TSRA ESPECIALLY IN THE EVNG.
FRI...MAINLY VFR. CHC -TSRA MAINLY IN THE AM.
SAT...VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY DUE TO ON AND OFF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. RH VALUES WILL RECOVER
TO NEAR 100 PERCENT AT NIGHT...AND RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY STAY
ABOVE 50 PERCENT DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO SERVICE AREAS PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5
DAYS. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS OF RAINFALL MAY OCCUR TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORMS. 3-HR ZONAL FFG VALUES ARE
GENERALLY IN THE 2.4-3.1 INCH RANGE AT THIS TIME...WHICH ARE HIGH
FOR MID TO LATE MAY.

DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
BASIN AVERAGE QPF WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE THIS WEEK. THE BEST
THREAT FOR SEEING SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. WHILE IT/S DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT
EXACT AMOUNTS...GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER /WPC/
SUGGESTS THAT MOST AREAS WILL SEE BETWEEN ONE HALF INCH AND AN INCH
AND A HALF OF RAIN THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...WITH THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/LFM
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/LFM
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/WASULA

000
FXUS61 KBOX 211419
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1019 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY RESULTING IN BRIEFLY COOLER WEATHER ACROSS
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A
COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR MASS IS EXPECTED FOR THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
10 AM UPDATE...
CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...EXCEPT LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG CONTINUED ACROSS PORTIONS OF E COASTAL MA. MODELS SUGGEST
CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BRIEFLY ERODE THROUGH ABOUT 18Z...THEN LOW
CLOUDS FROM THE N AND NE WILL EXPAND SW ACROSS THE REGION 18-00Z
AS THE BACKDOOR FRONT PUSHES SW. THIS FRONT WILL REMAIN ACROSS
FAR NE ZONES INTO THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH
INTO THE 80S ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA...WITH UPPER 80S
LOWER CT VALLEY. COOLER READINGS WILL BE FOUND ALONG THE S COAST
AND ESPECIALLY NE MA AND SE NH AND THIS COOLER AIR WILL MOVE SW
AFT 18Z WITH TEMPS FALLING SHARPLY THROUGH THE 70S AND INTO THE
60S BY EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN HALF OF NEW ENG...WITH 50S
NE MA.

NEXT CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION. SPC MESOANALYSIS
ALREADY SHOWING MLCAPES INCREASING TO 1000 J/KG IN THE CT VALLEY
AND EXPECT MLCAPES 1000-2000 J/KG ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW
ENG THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHER CAPES BECOMING MORE FOCUSED IN THE
CT VALLEY LATE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT PUSHES SW. MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE FAVORABLE AROUND 6.5-7 C/KM. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
MARGINAL BUT VALUES 20-30 KT ARE CERTAINLY ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
SOME ORGANIZATION OF ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP. SO WE ARE EXPECTING
SCT TSTMS TO DEVELOP IN THE INTERIOR WITH POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. HRRR IS TARGETING MASS PIKE REGION EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH ACTIVITY SHIFTING FURTHER WEST TO THE CT
VALLEY MID/LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE FARTHER NORTH LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A WARMER DAY
ACROSS EASTERN MA. STILL NOT CONVINCED SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT LOCAL SEABREEZES FROM DEVELOPING...SO
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINES.

AM CURRENTLY EXPECTING A BRIEF DIMINISHMENT OF ANY CONVECTION
LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...AS SUGGESTED BY CLIMATOLOGY.
INSTABILITY REGENERATES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...SO KEPT AT LEAST A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. THE LOWEST
RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS...WHERE ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES LOWER.

USED A BLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE ONCE AGAIN FOR TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURS INTO FRIDAY
* COOLER AND LESS HUMID FOR THE WEEKEND

CONFIDENCE LEVEL/MODEL GUIDANCE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE
OVERALL FORECAST...YET LOW CONFIDENCE ON MODEL PERFORMANCE. THE
00Z GFS/NAM SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWED DOWN THE DIGGING TROUGH FOR THE
NORTHEAST. THE REST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE FOLLOWED SUIT BUT NOT AS
DRASTICALLY. LEANED FORECAST TOWARDS EC/UKMET WHICH WHERE IN
BETWEEN THE 12Z AND 00Z GUIDANCE AS WELL AS PREV FORECAST. OVERALL
HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIP WILL OCCUR THURS AND MODERATE
CONFIDENCE FOR FRIDAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A COOL DOWN FOR THE WEEK
WITH MOD CONFIDENCE FOR SEASONAL TEMPS AND DRY FORECAST FOR
BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK.

DETAILS...

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...

APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING A ROUND OF PRECIP AND
THUNDER TO THE REGION. STILL SOME TIMING ISSUES AS MODELS STILL
DIFFER ON EXACT LOCATION AND MESOSCALE PARAMETERS.
REGARDLESS...SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL BE LOCATED IN THE WARM SECTOR
OF THE SYSTEM ALLOWING HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND THEREFORE MUGGY
CONDITIONS. TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE 80S. BELIEVE DIURNAL PRECIP
WILL BE THE MAIN TREAT FOR THIS DAY...WITH STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE.
MAIN THREAT OF THESE STORMS WILL BE HAIL...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL CHANGE THE
CONVECTIVE MODE TO MORE OF A POSSIBLE SQUALL LINE ON FRIDAY.
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS APPEAR TO BE MORE IN LINE DUE TO THE SLOW DOWN
OF THE OVERALL SYSTEM. ONLY THING TRULY LACKING IS THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY AS CLOUD DEBRIS WILL BE AROUND FROM THE PREV NIGHTS
SHOWERS/THUNDER. IF STORMS DO DEVELOP THEN BELIEVE THE MAIN THREAT
WILL BE STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS REACH CLOSE TO 1.5
IN.

THIS WEEKEND...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH OVER THE WEEK...CAA WILL
BRING A THERMAL TROUGH INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL DROP TEMPS WELL
BELOW SEASONAL AVG. AM NOT ANTICIPATED ANY FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES
AT THIS TIME BUT MAY NEED TO MONITOR IN THE FUTURE AS THE ENTIRE
AREA IS NOW IN THE GROWING SEASON. EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR
THE WEEKEND AND TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

MONDAY AND BEYOND...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL HELP TEMPS REACH SEASONAL
CONDITIONS. APPEARS THAT THERE IS LIMITED MOISTURE...HOWEVER
CANNOT RULE OUT A SPOT SHOWER OR TWO...ESP IF SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

OVERVIEW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE OF
STRATUS AND FOG BOTH THIS MORNING AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.

PATCHY IFR CONDITIONS PORTIONS OF E COASTAL MA AND CAPE/ISLANDS
MAY BRIEFLY IMPROVE TO VFR FOR A TIME EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...EXCEPT IFR FOG PERSISTING AT ACK. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
INTERIOR.

TONIGHT...WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR IN STRATUS AND FOG REDEVELOP.

WEDNESDAY...PRETTY MUCH A REPEAT OF TUESDAY. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT
TO VFR/MVFR FROM WEST TO EAST.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS SHOULD
TEMPORARILY IMPROVE TO VFR AROUND MIDDAY BUT FALL BACK TO IFR BY
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. TIMING UNCERTAIN.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENTS. VERY UNSETTLED
PATTERN WITH VARIABILITY BETWEEN VFR CONDITIONS AND MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS IN SHRA/TSRA/FOG. IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA MOST OF TODAY. LEANED MORE HEAVILY UPON THE SWAN WAVE
GUIDANCE AS THE WNA WAVE GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE TOO HIGH. STILL
EXPECTING AREAS OF FOG TO PERSIST THROUGH TODAY BEFORE EXPANDING
ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT.

INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS WEDNESDAY MAY LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF
MARGINAL 5 FT SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OUTER COASTAL WATERS OF MA
AND RI. WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
RIGHT NOW TO AVOID CONFUSION WITH EXISTING ADVISORY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM
WILL INCREASE SEAS ABOVE 5FT DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...SCA WILL BE
NEEDED. EXPECT LOW VSBYS IN HEAVY SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDER AS WELL.
BELIEVE FRIDAY IS THE BETTER DAY FOR TSTORMS ACROSS THE WATERS AS
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY.

THIS WEEKEND...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SEAS WILL REMAIN ABOVE SCA
FOR MOST OF THE WEEKEND ESP FOR THE OUTER WATERS. GUSTY NW BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL BRING GUSTS CLOSE TO GALE FORCE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ006-007-
     015-016-019>024.
NH...NONE.
RI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...BELK/KJC/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...BELK/KJC/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN

000
FXUS61 KOKX 211211
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
811 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MINOR UPDATE TO TEMPS/DEWPTS TO REFLECT CURRENT OBS TRENDS.
OTHERWISE...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOG/STRATUS EARLY THIS
MORNING. LACK OF OBS HAS MADE IT MORE DIFFICULT EARLY THIS MORNING
TO ASCERTAIN EXTENT OF FOG THIS MORNING...BUT WILL MAINTAIN DENSE
FOG ADVISORY FOR NOW.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS TO THE NORTH AS RIDGE BUILDS ALOFT. THE
FRONT WILL MOVE LITTLE AS IT REMAINS PARALLEL TO UPPER FLOW.

A GENERAL SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS...AND EXPECT
TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM THE SOUTH FACING SHORES TO SOAR TODAY. H8
HPA TEMPS 12-16C...AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE TEMPS TO 30C OR
GREATER DURING MAX HEATING. MOS TEMPS GENERALLY ACCEPTED WITH 80S
MANY LOCATIONS...EXCEPT 70S ERN LONG ISLAND AND SERN CT.

MARGINAL INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BUILD BY AFTERNOON...ASSUMING
DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE MIDDLE 60S. HOWEVER...THESE DEW POINTS
LIKELY MIX OUT SLIGHTLY AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. THERMAL TROUGH
COULD BE THE FOCUS FOR SOME CONVECTION...BUT THE BULK OF THE
SHOWERS AND TSTMS SHOULD RIDE ALONG THE FRONT. AS SUCH...INTERIOR
SECTIONS SHOULD SEE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT MESOSCALE MODEL FCST REFLECTIVITY MOVING SE TOWARD
CSTL LOCALES BY EVENING...ALTHOUGH LIKELY WEAKENING AS THEY HIT THE
MARINE LAYER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
ANY LINGERING CONVECTION THIS EVENING SHOULD DIMINISH IN COVERAGE
AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. ALTHOUGH FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEARBY COULD
TRIGGER AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TSTM OVERNIGHT. MAIN ISSUE TONIGHT
WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG ONCE AGAIN AS SOUTHERLY WINDS
PREVAIL AND THE AIRMASS REMAINS QUITE MOIST.

LOWS WILL BE QUITE WARM...60S PER MOS.

FOR WEDNESDAY...RIDGE SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST AS UPSTREAM TROUGH
FINALLY MAKES EASTWARD PROGRESS. HOWEVER...ANOTHER WARM DAY IS ON
TAP. MORNING FOG AND STRATUS WILL GIVE WAY TO AT LEAST PARTIAL
SUNSHINE. ONCE AGAIN...CONVECTION SHOULD BE SCATTERED AT BEST WITH
WEAK TO MARGINAL INSTABILITY IN PLACE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHEAST FROM NEAR THE CANADIAN
BORDER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING TRIGGERING SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FRONT WILL THEN MOVE OFFSHORE BY
FRIDAY MORNING WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG
IT...KEEPING SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

EXPECT HIGHS ON THURSDAY TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT IN UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DROP SOUTHEAST FROM CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE CENTRAL US AND BUILD
EASTWARD THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY. HIGHS SATURDAY THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 WITH LOWS IN THE
MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM W TO E THROUGH NEW ENGLAND WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TODAY. IT MAY SINK SLIGHTLY S BUT IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN N OF THE TERMINALS.

STRATUS/FOG OVER THE TERMINALS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT AND BURN OFF
THIS MORNING. CONDS START OUT LIFR/IFR AND SHOULD LIFT BACK TO
VFR BETWEEN 14Z AND 16Z. VFR THEN EXPECTED INTO THE EVE BEFORE
FOG/STRATUS RETURNS.

MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG DOWN FROM THE NORTH WITH
A SFC TROUGH DEVELOPING IN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS. CONVECTION
WILL LIKELY FIRE NEAR BOTH OF THESE BOUNDARIES...BUT THERE`S SOME
QUESTION HOW FAR S AND E TSTMS WILL MAKE IT BEFORE THE FIZZLE DUE
TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ONLY HAVE TEMPO AT KSWF LATE THIS
AFTN/EARLY EVE FOR THIS.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR IMPROVING CONDS THIS
MORNING. LOW CHC OF EVENING CONVECTION.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR IMPROVING CONDS THIS
MORNING. LOW CHC OF EVENING CONVECTION.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR IMPROVING CONDS THIS
MORNING. LOW CHC OF EVENING CONVECTION.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS YELLOW...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR IMPROVING CONDS THIS
MORNING. LOW CHC OF EVENING CONVECTION.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR IMPROVING CONDS THIS
MORNING. LOW CHC OF EVENING CONVECTION.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR IMPROVING CONDS
THIS MORNING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WED...IFR IN FOG AND STRATUS IMPROVING TO VFR IN THE MORNING. SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS IN THE AFTN/EVE.
.WED NIGHT-FRI...SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS. AT NIGHT...IFR POSSIBLE WITH
STRATUS/FOG.
.SAT...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
DENSE FOG ACROSS THE WATERS THIS MORNING SHOULD IMPROVE SOME BY
AFTERNOON. SOUTH WINDS PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...BUT SUB SCA
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED.

CONTINUED SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IS FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS TO THE NORTH. DEEP LOW
LEVEL INVERSION AND MINIMAL TEMP/DEW POINT SPREAD WILL WARRANT
INCLUSION OF FOG OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW 5 FT OVER THE OCEAN WATERS...1 FT OR LESS
ELSEWHERE TODAY AND LIKELY TONIGHT.

LATEST WAVE WATCH III GUIDANCE FOR THE OCEAN WATERS SUGGEST 5 TO
6 FT SEAS BY WEDNESDAY DUE TO PERSISTENT SOUTH FLOW AND POSSIBLE
SOUTHERLY SWELL. HOWEVER...WAVE WATCH HAS BEEN OVERFORECASTING
SEAS BY A FOOT OR TWO...SO CONFIDENCE IN THIS HAPPENING IS NOT
HIGH AT THIS TIME.

SEAS EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE SCA LEVELS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH 25 KT
WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN WATERS BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WATERS THURSDAY EVENING INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE ON
LATE ON FRIDAY. WINDS COULD BE BELOW SCA LEVELS BY FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH SEAS REMAINING ABOVE SCA CRITERIA THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED TO SCT SHOWERS OR TSTMS LATE IN THE DAY TODAY...MAINLY
INLAND. IMPACTS WILL BE MINIMAL.

SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS WED-THU WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...WITH THE BEST CHANCES NORTH/WEST OF NYC. TOTAL BASIN
AVG QPF FOR WED-THU COULD BE 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMTS IN TSTMS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CTZ009>012.
NY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ071-
     078>081-177-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-
     345-350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...

000
FXUS61 KALY 211129
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
729 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMING STATIONARY ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK AND NEW
ENGLAND.  A DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS.  THE HUMID AND UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES TOMORROW AND
THURSDAY WITH MORE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE A
COLD FRONT RETURNS DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 630 AM EDT...A BROAD RIDGE AT 500 HPA IS SITUATED OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS...WITH A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...OUR REGION REMAINS IN A WARM
SECTOR...WITH A VERY SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY SITUATED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF OUR AREA.

A LINE OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SWEPT THROUGH THE
ADIRONDACKS EARLY THIS MORNING AND IS ALREADY WELL EAST OF THE
REGION ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY ACROSS
LAKE ONTARIO. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS/STORMS MAY MAKE IT INTO THE
ADIRONDACKS BY THE MID MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF
THE REGION WILL START THE DRY RAIN FREE...ALTHOUGH IT WILL WARM
AND MUGGY. SOME VALLEY AREAS ARE SEEING PATCHY FOG TO START THE
DAY...BUT THE STRONG MAY SUN SHOULD HELP DISSIPATE THIS FOG BY
ABOUT 8 AM.

ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE
HEATING OF THE DAY AS A SFC WAVE ALONG THE FRONT BEGINS TO
APPROACH THE AREA. OUR LOCAL HIRES WRF SUGGESTS THAT SOME SHOWERS
OR STORMS MAY BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN BY THE LATE
MORNING OR EARLY AFTN HOURS. THE 3 KM HRRR GUIDANCE SEEMS TO SHOW
THAT IT COULD HOLD OFF UNTIL THE EARLY TO MID AFTN HOURS. IN
EITHER CASES...ONCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP THEY SHOULD
MOVE IN A GENERA-LY WEST TO EAST MANNER.

WITH MAX TEMPS REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS THE
AREA...AND TDS WELL INTO THE 60S...THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY FOR TSTMS. WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 20-35 KTS AND MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF ABOUT 6-7 DEGREES C PER KM...THERE COULD BE
ENOUGH OF THE INGREDIENTS IN PLACE TO ALLOW A STORM OR TWO TO
BECOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE. SPC HAS PLACED OUR REGION IN A
/SEE TEXT/ AREA FOR TODAY...AND WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH IF ANY
STORMS GROW TALL ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. WE
WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS IN OUR HWO AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ONGOING CONVECTION THIS EVENING LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS
THE SFC WAVE MOVES ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE BEST CHC FOR SEEING
SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA.
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...ANY SVR THREAT WILL BE DIMINISHED...BUT
THUNDER SHOULD STILL CONTINUE DUE TO LINGERING ELEVATED
INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MILD AND
MUGGY WITH UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ACROSS THE AREA.

THE SFC BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.
THE RIDGE AXIS WILL START TO SHIFT EASTWARD AS THE UPPER LOW OVER
THE PLAINS SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD. DESPITE THE WEAK LARGE SCALE
FORCING...THERE LOOKS TO BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS AS
A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH MAY BE IN PLACE ACROSS OUR AREA BY AFTN.
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE...ESP WITH
WARM TEMPS REACHING THE 80S IN MOST AREAS...AND TDS IN THE MID 60S
F. ANY STORM WILL AGAIN BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS/LARGE HAIL...AND SPC HAS PLACED A GOOD CHUNK OF OUR AREA IN
A SLIGHT RISK FOR SVR STORMS. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HWO AS
WELL.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER AGAIN INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH CONTINUED MILD AND MUGGY CONDITIONS. MINS WILL ONLY DROP INTO
THE 60S...WITH MID TO UPPER 60S IN THE HUDSON VALLEY.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO MAKE SOME STEADY EASTWARD
PROGRESS ON THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. A SFC COLD FRONT WILL
ADVANCE EASTWARD DURING THIS TIME AS WELL. THIS FRONT WILL BE A
FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESP FOR THURSDAY
AFTN INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...THERE WILL BE
ONE LAST WARM AND MUGGY DAY...WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S. MIN TEMPS
WILL START TO COOL OFF BY THURSDAY NIGHT WILL THE BOUNDARY MOVING
THROUGH...WITH MINS IN THE 40S AND 50S ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE
MILDEST TEMPS IN SOUTHEASTERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT SHOULD EXIT THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY WITH
LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING IN NY AND INTO
THE AFTERNOON IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.  THERE SHOULD BE DECENT
BOUNDARY LAYER FORCING WITH A TIGHT THERMAL AND MOISTURE GRADIENT
ALONG THE COLD FRONT...SO WILL KEEP AN EYE FOR ANY STRONG
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL
THROUGH THE DAY...AND HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE CAPPED AROUND THE
MID 60S TO AROUND 70...BUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.

ONCE THE COLD FRONT IS GONE...HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS IN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. SOME
LINGERING CLOUDINESS COULD AFFECT THE MID HUDSON VALLEY INTO WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT COULD BE SLOW TO EXIT THOSE
AREAS. HOWEVER...ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF OUR
AREA.  HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...UPPER 50S SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...INCREASING SUNSHINE AND SLOWLY MODERATING
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 AND ON
MONDAY...HIGHS AROUND 70 TO THE LOWER 70S.  TEMPERATURES COOLER IN
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS BOTH DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SOME TYPICAL EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AFFECTING ALL SITES
AND SHOULD LIFT BY 14Z WHEN CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME VFR...EXCEPT
BY 16Z AT KPSF. THERE IS ANOTHER SMALL CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER LAKE ONTARIO THAT COULD APPROACH KGFL LATE THIS
MORNING OR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT TOO EARLY AND TOO ISOLATED
TO MENTION IN TAF AT THIS TIME OTHER THAN PUTTING A VCSH.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE OH VALLEY AND CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES THIS MORNING COULD AFFECT OUR REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...IF THEY HOLD TOGETHER TO TRACK THIS FAR EAST.  AGAIN...DUE
TO UNCERTAINTIES...JUST PUTTING VCSH AT ALL SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. LATER IN THE EVENING...SOME FOG AND LOW CEILINGS COULD
POTENTIALLY FORM WITH MVFR CONDITIONS.

LIGHT WINDS SHOULD BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 KT OR LESS
TODAY...THEN DIMINISH BACK TO LIGHT THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
WED...VFR/MVFR CHC -SHRA/-TSRA ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTN.
WED NIGHT...VFR/MVFR. AT KGFL AND KALB -SHRA/-TSRA LIKELY. AT
KPSF AND KPOU CHC -SHRA/-TSRA.
THU...MVFR WITH IFR POSSIBLE. -SHRA/-TSRA LIKELY.
THU NIGHT...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA/-TSRA ESPECIALLY IN THE EVNG.
FRI...MAINLY VFR. CHC -TSRA MAINLY IN THE AM.
SAT...VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY DUE TO ON AND OFF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. RH VALUES WILL RECOVER
TO NEAR 100 PERCENT AT NIGHT...AND RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY STAY
ABOVE 50 PERCENT DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO SERVICE AREAS PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5
DAYS. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS OF RAINFALL MAY OCCUR TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORMS. 3-HR ZONAL FFG VALUES ARE
GENERALLY IN THE 2.4-3.1 INCH RANGE AT THIS TIME...WHICH ARE HIGH
FOR MID TO LATE MAY.

DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
BASIN AVERAGE QPF WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE THIS WEEK. THE BEST
THREAT FOR SEEING SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. WHILE IT/S DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT
EXACT AMOUNTS...GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER /WPC/
SUGGESTS THAT MOST AREAS WILL SEE BETWEEN ONE HALF INCH AND AN INCH
AND A HALF OF RAIN THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...WITH THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/WASULA

000
FXUS61 KBOX 211100
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
700 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY RESULTING IN BRIEFLY COOLER WEATHER ACROSS
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A
COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR MASS IS EXPECTED FOR THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

700 AM UPDATE...
FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK FOR THIS MORNING. MADE UPDATES TO
ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS. LOCALLY PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS
SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS MORNING PER LATEST OBS AND
WEBCAMS. WILL CONTINUE THE DENSE FOG ADV TIL 10 AM THIS MORNING.
HAVE PUSHED BACK TIMING OF PRECIP AS SHOWERS OVER NH WILL REMAIN
NORTH OF THE REGION...AND EXPECT PRECIP TO DEVELOP BY LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
STILL TRYING TO NAIL DOWN THE LOCATION OF A BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT
ACROSS EASTERN MA THIS MORNING. WINDS ARE VERY LIGHT ACROSS MOST
OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. LATEST MESONET WIND DATA INDICATED THIS
FRONT HAD MOVED ONSHORE ACROSS THE NORTH SHORE. FARTHER SOUTH...
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF BOSTON...THIS FRONT HAS APPARENTLY NOT MADE
MUCH PROGRESS.

THE LOCATION OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PLAY A CRUCIAL ROLE IN
OUR WEATHER TODAY. SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER TEMPERATURES WILL BE FELT
EAST OF THIS FRONT...WITH ANOTHER DAY OF SUMMER-LIKE WARMTH WELL
TO THE WEST. CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO PLAY A MAJOR ROLE AS WELL.
MARINE STRATUS AND PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL TAKE A WHILE TO DISSIPATE
THIS MORNING.

THESE TEMPERATURES IN TURN WILL INFLUENCE HOW MUCH CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY IS GENERATED TODAY. LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS HAD
1000-200 J/KG OF MOST UNSTABLE CAPE. MIXED-LAYER CAPE WAS NON-
EXISTENT. MARGINAL MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES THIS MORNING SHOULD MEAN
THE BROKEN CONVECTIVE LINE MOVING EAST ACROSS NY STATE SHOULD
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST OF THE CT RIVER VALLEY ACROSS SOUTHERN NH.
THAT SAID...STILL MAINTAINED AT LEAST AN ISOLATED THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF ROUTE 2 IN MA AND SOUTHERN NH
THIS MORNING.

AS FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON...THINKING AIRMASS WILL DESTABILIZE TO
RESULT IN MIXED LAYER CAPES OF 750-1250 J/KG. MARGINAL MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES SHOULD CONTINUE. GREATEST THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE INTERIOR. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE
OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF ELEVATED CONVECTION MOVING FARTHER EAST
OVER THE SURFACE MARINE LAYER. SHOULD THIS HAPPEN...THINKING
CONVECTION WOULD BE WEAKENING AS IT DOES SO.

TEMPERATURES WERE A BLEND OF THE MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE FARTHER NORTH LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A WARMER DAY
ACROSS EASTERN MA. STILL NOT CONVINCED SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT LOCAL SEABREEZES FROM DEVELOPING...SO
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINES.

AM CURRENTLY EXPECTING A BRIEF DIMINISHMENT OF ANY CONVECTION
LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...AS SUGGESTED BY CLIMATOLOGY.
INSTABILITY REGENERATES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...SO KEPT AT LEAST A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. THE LOWEST
RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS...WHERE ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES LOWER.

USED A BLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE ONCE AGAIN FOR TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURS INTO FRIDAY
* COOLER AND LESS HUMID FOR THE WEEKEND

CONFIDENCE LEVEL/MODEL GUIDANCE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE
OVERALL FORECAST...YET LOW CONFIDENCE ON MODEL PERFORMANCE. THE
00Z GFS/NAM SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWED DOWN THE DIGGING TROUGH FOR THE
NORTHEAST. THE REST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE FOLLOWED SUIT BUT NOT AS
DRASTICALLY. LEANED FORECAST TOWARDS EC/UKMET WHICH WHERE IN
BETWEEN THE 12Z AND 00Z GUIDANCE AS WELL AS PREV FORECAST. OVERALL
HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIP WILL OCCUR THURS AND MODERATE
CONFIDENCE FOR FRIDAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A COOL DOWN FOR THE WEEK
WITH MOD CONFIDENCE FOR SEASONAL TEMPS AND DRY FORECAST FOR
BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK.

DETAILS...

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...

APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING A ROUND OF PRECIP AND
THUNDER TO THE REGION. STILL SOME TIMING ISSUES AS MODELS STILL
DIFFER ON EXACT LOCATION AND MESOSCALE PARAMETERS.
REGARDLESS...SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL BE LOCATED IN THE WARM SECTOR
OF THE SYSTEM ALLOWING HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND THEREFORE MUGGY
CONDITIONS. TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE 80S. BELIEVE DIURNAL PRECIP
WILL BE THE MAIN TREAT FOR THIS DAY...WITH STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE.
MAIN THREAT OF THESE STORMS WILL BE HAIL...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL CHANGE THE
CONVECTIVE MODE TO MORE OF A POSSIBLE SQUALL LINE ON FRIDAY.
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS APPEAR TO BE MORE IN LINE DUE TO THE SLOW DOWN
OF THE OVERALL SYSTEM. ONLY THING TRULY LACKING IS THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY AS CLOUD DEBRIS WILL BE AROUND FROM THE PREV NIGHTS
SHOWERS/THUNDER. IF STORMS DO DEVELOP THEN BELIEVE THE MAIN THREAT
WILL BE STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS REACH CLOSE TO 1.5
IN.

THIS WEEKEND...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH OVER THE WEEK...CAA WILL
BRING A THERMAL TROUGH INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL DROP TEMPS WELL
BELOW SEASONAL AVG. AM NOT ANTICIPATED ANY FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES
AT THIS TIME BUT MAY NEED TO MONITOR IN THE FUTURE AS THE ENTIRE
AREA IS NOW IN THE GROWING SEASON. EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR
THE WEEKEND AND TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

MONDAY AND BEYOND...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL HELP TEMPS REACH SEASONAL
CONDITIONS. APPEARS THAT THERE IS LIMITED MOISTURE...HOWEVER
CANNOT RULE OUT A SPOT SHOWER OR TWO...ESP IF SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

OVERVIEW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE OF
STRATUS AND FOG BOTH THIS MORNING AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.

PATCHY IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG HAVE SPREAD NORTH ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING. EXPECT FOG TO DISSIPATE AND
CONDITIONS TO LIFT TO VFR BY THIS MORNING.

TODAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CT RIVER VALLEY.

TONIGHT...WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR IN STRATUS AND FOG REDEVELOP.

WEDNESDAY...PRETTY MUCH A REPEAT OF TUESDAY. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT
TO VFR/MVFR FROM WEST TO EAST.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...MAINLY DUE TO TIMING OF VFR
IMPROVEMENT.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...MAINLY DUE TO TIMING OF VFR
IMPROVEMENT.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENTS. VERY UNSETTLED
PATTERN WITH VARIABILITY BETWEEN VFR CONDITIONS AND MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS IN SHRA/TSRA/FOG. IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA MOST OF TODAY. LEANED MORE HEAVILY UPON THE SWAN WAVE
GUIDANCE AS THE WNA WAVE GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE TOO HIGH. STILL
EXPECTING AREAS OF FOG TO PERSIST THROUGH TODAY BEFORE EXPANDING
ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT.

INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS WEDNESDAY MAY LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF
MARGINAL 5 FT SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OUTER COASTAL WATERS OF MA
AND RI. WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
RIGHT NOW TO AVOID CONFUSION WITH EXISTING ADVISORY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM
WILL INCREASE SEAS ABOVE 5FT DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...SCA WILL BE
NEEDED. EXPECT LOW VSBYS IN HEAVY SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDER AS WELL.
BELIEVE FRIDAY IS THE BETTER DAY FOR TSTORMS ACROSS THE WATERS AS
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY.

THIS WEEKEND...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SEAS WILL REMAIN ABOVE SCA
FOR MOST OF THE WEEKEND ESP FOR THE OUTER WATERS. GUSTY NW BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL BRING GUSTS CLOSE TO GALE FORCE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ020>024.
NH...NONE.
RI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS
     MORNING FOR ANZ255-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...BELK/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN

000
FXUS61 KOKX 211046
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
646 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MINOR UPDATE TO TEMPS/DEWPTS TO REFLECT CURRENT OBS TRENDS.
OTHERWISE...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOG/STRATUS EARLY THIS
MORNING. LACK OF OBS HAS MADE IT MORE DIFFICULT EARLY THIS MORNING
TO ASCERTAIN EXTENT OF FOG THIS MORNING...BUT WILL MAINTAIN DENSE
FOG ADVISORY FOR NOW.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS TO THE NORTH AS RIDGE BUILDS ALOFT. THE
FRONT WILL MOVE LITTLE AS IT REMAINS PARALLEL TO UPPER FLOW.

A GENERAL SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS...AND EXPECT
TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM THE SOUTH FACING SHORES TO SOAR TODAY. H8
HPA TEMPS 12-16C...AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE TEMPS TO 30C OR
GREATER DURING MAX HEATING. MOS TEMPS GENERALLY ACCEPTED WITH 80S
MANY LOCATIONS...EXCEPT 70S ERN LONG ISLAND AND SERN CT.

MARGINAL INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BUILD BY AFTERNOON...ASSUMING
DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE MIDDLE 60S. HOWEVER...THESE DEW POINTS
LIKELY MIX OUT SLIGHTLY AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. THERMAL TROUGH
COULD BE THE FOCUS FOR SOME CONVECTION...BUT THE BULK OF THE
SHOWERS AND TSTMS SHOULD RIDE ALONG THE FRONT. AS SUCH...INTERIOR
SECTIONS SHOULD SEE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT MESOSCALE MODEL FCST REFLECTIVITY MOVING SE TOWARD
CSTL LOCALES BY EVENING...ALTHOUGH LIKELY WEAKENING AS THEY HIT THE
MARINE LAYER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
ANY LINGERING CONVECTION THIS EVENING SHOULD DIMINISH IN COVERAGE
AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. ALTHOUGH FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEARBY COULD
TRIGGER AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TSTM OVERNIGHT. MAIN ISSUE TONIGHT
WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG ONCE AGAIN AS SOUTHERLY WINDS
PREVAIL AND THE AIRMASS REMAINS QUITE MOIST.

LOWS WILL BE QUITE WARM...60S PER MOS.

FOR WEDNESDAY...RIDGE SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST AS UPSTREAM TROUGH
FINALLY MAKES EASTWARD PROGRESS. HOWEVER...ANOTHER WARM DAY IS ON
TAP. MORNING FOG AND STRATUS WILL GIVE WAY TO AT LEAST PARTIAL
SUNSHINE. ONCE AGAIN...CONVECTION SHOULD BE SCATTERED AT BEST WITH
WEAK TO MARGINAL INSTABILITY IN PLACE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHEAST FROM NEAR THE CANADIAN
BORDER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING TRIGGERING SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FRONT WILL THEN MOVE OFFSHORE BY
FRIDAY MORNING WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG
IT...KEEPING SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

EXPECT HIGHS ON THURSDAY TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT IN UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DROP SOUTHEAST FROM CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE CENTRAL US AND BUILD
EASTWARD THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY. HIGHS SATURDAY THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 WITH LOWS IN THE
MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM W TO E THROUGH NEW ENGLAND WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TODAY. IT MAY SINK SLIGHTLY S BUT IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN N OF THE TERMINALS.

FOG HAS FINALLY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD EARLY THIS MORNING. CONDS
RANGING MVFR TO LIFR OUTSIDE OF NYC TERMINALS WHERE CONDS REMAIN
MAINLY VFR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KJFK. EXACT TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT
IS TRICKY BUT VFR SHOULD RETURN BETWEEN 14-17Z ALL TERMINALS. VFR
THEN EXPECTED INTO THE EVE BEFORE FOG/STRATUS RETURNS.

MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG DOWN FROM THE NORTH WITH
A SFC TROUGH DEVELOPING IN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS. CONVECTION
WILL LIKELY FIRE NEAR BOTH OF THESE BOUNDARIES...BUT THERE`S SOME
QUESTION HOW FAR S AND W TSTMS WILL MAKE IT BEFORE THE FIZZLE DUE
TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ONLY HAVE TEMPO AT KSWF LATE THIS
AFTN/EARLY EVE FOR THIS.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF FOG/STRATUS IMPROVEMENT THIS
MORNING IS UNCERTAIN. MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: FOG/STRATUS MAY NOT OCCUR THIS MORNING. IF
IT DOES...TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: FOG/STRATUS MAY NOT OCCUR THIS MORNING. IF
IT DOES...TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS YELLOW...WHICH
IMPLIES  SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR FOG/STRATUS MAY NOT OCCUR THIS MORNING.
IF IT DOES...TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS:TIMING OF FOG/STRATUS IMPROVEMENT THIS
MORNING IS UNCERTAIN. MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF FOG/STRATUS IMPROVEMENT THIS
MORNING IS UNCERTAIN. MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUE NGT...BECOMING IFR WITH FOG AND STRATUS.
.WED-FRI...SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS. AT NIGHT...IFR POSSIBLE
WITH STRATUS/FOG.
.SAT...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
DENSE FOG ACROSS THE WATERS THIS MORNING SHOULD IMPROVE SOME BY
AFTERNOON. SOUTH WINDS PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...BUT SUB SCA
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED.

CONTINUED SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IS FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS TO THE NORTH. DEEP LOW
LEVEL INVERSION AND MINIMAL TEMP/DEW POINT SPREAD WILL WARRANT
INCLUSION OF FOG OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW 5 FT OVER THE OCEAN WATERS...1 FT OR LESS
ELSEWHERE TODAY AND LIKELY TONIGHT.

LATEST WAVE WATCH III GUIDANCE FOR THE OCEAN WATERS SUGGEST 5 TO
6 FT SEAS BY WEDNESDAY DUE TO PERSISTENT SOUTH FLOW AND POSSIBLE
SOUTHERLY SWELL. HOWEVER...WAVE WATCH HAS BEEN OVERFORECASTING
SEAS BY A FOOT OR TWO...SO CONFIDENCE IN THIS HAPPENING IS NOT
HIGH AT THIS TIME.

SEAS EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE SCA LEVELS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH 25 KT
WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN WATERS BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WATERS THURSDAY EVENING INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE ON
LATE ON FRIDAY. WINDS COULD BE BELOW SCA LEVELS BY FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH SEAS REMAINING ABOVE SCA CRITERIA THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED TO SCT SHOWERS OR TSTMS LATE IN THE DAY TODAY...MAINLY
INLAND. IMPACTS WILL BE MINIMAL.

SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS WED-THU WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...WITH THE BEST CHANCES NORTH/WEST OF NYC. TOTAL BASIN
AVG QPF FOR WED-THU COULD BE 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMTS IN TSTMS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CTZ009>012.
NY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ071-
     078>081-177-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-
     345-350-353-355.

&&

$$

000
FXUS61 KALY 211030
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
630 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMING STATIONARY ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK AND NEW
ENGLAND.  A DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS.  THE HUMID AND UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES TOMORROW AND
THURSDAY WITH MORE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE A
COLD FRONT RETURNS DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 630 AM EDT...A BROAD RIDGE AT 500 HPA IS SITUATED OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS...WITH A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...OUR REGION REMAINS IN A WARM
SECTOR...WITH A VERY SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY SITUATED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF OUR AREA.

A LINE OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SWEPT THROUGH THE
ADIRONDACKS EARLY THIS MORNING AND IS ALREADY WELL EAST OF THE
REGION ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY ACROSS
LAKE ONTARIO. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS/STORMS MAY MAKE IT INTO THE
ADIRONDACKS BY THE MID MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF
THE REGION WILL START THE DRY RAIN FREE...ALTHOUGH IT WILL WARM
AND MUGGY. SOME VALLEY AREAS ARE SEEING PATCHY FOG TO START THE
DAY...BUT THE STRONG MAY SUN SHOULD HELP DISSIPATE THIS FOG BY
ABOUT 8 AM.

ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE
HEATING OF THE DAY AS A SFC WAVE ALONG THE FRONT BEGINS TO
APPROACH THE AREA. OUR LOCAL HIRES WRF SUGGESTS THAT SOME SHOWERS
OR STORMS MAY BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN BY THE LATE
MORNING OR EARLY AFTN HOURS. THE 3 KM HRRR GUIDANCE SEEMS TO SHOW
THAT IT COULD HOLD OFF UNTIL THE EARLY TO MID AFTN HOURS. IN
EITHER CASES...ONCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP THEY SHOULD
MOVE IN A GENERA-LY WEST TO EAST MANNER.

WITH MAX TEMPS REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS THE
AREA...AND TDS WELL INTO THE 60S...THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY FOR TSTMS. WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 20-35 KTS AND MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF ABOUT 6-7 DEGREES C PER KM...THERE COULD BE
ENOUGH OF THE INGREDIENTS IN PLACE TO ALLOW A STORM OR TWO TO
BECOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE. SPC HAS PLACED OUR REGION IN A
/SEE TEXT/ AREA FOR TODAY...AND WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH IF ANY
STORMS GROW TALL ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. WE
WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS IN OUR HWO AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ONGOING CONVECTION THIS EVENING LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS
THE SFC WAVE MOVES ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE BEST CHC FOR SEEING
SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA.
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...ANY SVR THREAT WILL BE DIMINISHED...BUT
THUNDER SHOULD STILL CONTINUE DUE TO LINGERING ELEVATED
INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MILD AND
MUGGY WITH UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ACROSS THE AREA.

THE SFC BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.
THE RIDGE AXIS WILL START TO SHIFT EASTWARD AS THE UPPER LOW OVER
THE PLAINS SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD. DESPITE THE WEAK LARGE SCALE
FORCING...THERE LOOKS TO BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS AS
A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH MAY BE IN PLACE ACROSS OUR AREA BY AFTN.
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE...ESP WITH
WARM TEMPS REACHING THE 80S IN MOST AREAS...AND TDS IN THE MID 60S
F. ANY STORM WILL AGAIN BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS/LARGE HAIL...AND SPC HAS PLACED A GOOD CHUNK OF OUR AREA IN
A SLIGHT RISK FOR SVR STORMS. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HWO AS
WELL.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER AGAIN INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH CONTINUED MILD AND MUGGY CONDITIONS. MINS WILL ONLY DROP INTO
THE 60S...WITH MID TO UPPER 60S IN THE HUDSON VALLEY.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO MAKE SOME STEADY EASTWARD
PROGRESS ON THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. A SFC COLD FRONT WILL
ADVANCE EASTWARD DURING THIS TIME AS WELL. THIS FRONT WILL BE A
FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESP FOR THURSDAY
AFTN INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...THERE WILL BE
ONE LAST WARM AND MUGGY DAY...WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S. MIN TEMPS
WILL START TO COOL OFF BY THURSDAY NIGHT WILL THE BOUNDARY MOVING
THROUGH...WITH MINS IN THE 40S AND 50S ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE
MILDEST TEMPS IN SOUTHEASTERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT SHOULD EXIT THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY WITH
LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING IN NY AND INTO
THE AFTERNOON IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.  THERE SHOULD BE DECENT
BOUNDARY LAYER FORCING WITH A TIGHT THERMAL AND MOISTURE GRADIENT
ALONG THE COLD FRONT...SO WILL KEEP AN EYE FOR ANY STRONG
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL
THROUGH THE DAY...AND HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE CAPPED AROUND THE
MID 60S TO AROUND 70...BUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.

ONCE THE COLD FRONT IS GONE...HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS IN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. SOME
LINGERING CLOUDINESS COULD AFFECT THE MID HUDSON VALLEY INTO WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT COULD BE SLOW TO EXIT THOSE
AREAS. HOWEVER...ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF OUR
AREA.  HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...UPPER 50S SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...INCREASING SUNSHINE AND SLOWLY MODERATING
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 AND ON
MONDAY...HIGHS AROUND 70 TO THE LOWER 70S.  TEMPERATURES COOLER IN
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS BOTH DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKY ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH A WEAK
WARM FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN NY. SOME FOG HAS FORMED AT KPSF AND
ACKNOWLEDGING IFR FOG TEMPORARILY MVFR THROUGH ABOUT 14Z AT KPSF. A
BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER LAKE ONTARIO IS MOVING
EAST...AND THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION IS NEAR KSYR.  THERE
IS A GUST FRONT AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION THAT IS MOVING AT AROUND 35
KT...BUT BASED ON THE STEERING FLOW SEEN ON RADARS ACROSS THE
REGION...THIS CONVECTION SHOULD MAINLY TRACK DUE EAST.

AREA 00Z SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW ENOUGH INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION TO
SUSTAIN THE CONVECTION AS IT TRACKS THROUGH EASTERN NY AND INTO
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER...IT IS TIMED TO REACH THE HUDSON
VALLEY AROUND 09Z...AND WITH CONTINUED STABILIZING OF THE ATMOSPHERE
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...AND WEAKENING OF THE
CONVECTION...JUST INDICATING VCSH AT KGFL...KALB AND KPSF...ALTHOUGH
THE BEST CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WOULD BE KGFL BASED ON
RADAR TRENDS. WILL AMEND TAFS AN HOUR OR TWO PRIOR TO A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM IF RADAR SUGGESTS STRENGTH OF CONVECTION AND MOVEMENT
CONTINUES.

OUTSIDE OF THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG
AND SOME SCATTERED VARIABLE BROKEN CLOUDS AROUND 1500 FEET ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT 14Z. ONCE WHATEVER RAIN TRACKS EAST OF THE
REGION...BROKEN CLOUDS ABOVE 3000 FEET TEMPORARILY SCATTERED THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.  SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS COULD
DEVELOP LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING...BUT NO REAL
ORGANIZED FOCUS SO LEAVING OUT ANY VCSH FOR NOW...BUT MAY BE ADDED
IN LATER TAF ISSUANCES TODAY ONCE THE CHARACTER OF CONVECTION IS
KNOWN WHEN IT FORMS.

WINDS SHOULD BE NEARLY CAL THROUGH ABOUT 14Z. WINDS SHOULD BECOME
LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT LESS THAN 10 KT LATER THIS MORNING AND
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT...VFR/MVFR. AT KALB AND KGFL -SHRA LIKELY WITH CHC TSRA.
AT KPSF AND KPOU CHC -SHRA/-TSRA.
WED...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA/-TSRA ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTN.
WED NIGHT...VFR/MVFR. AT KGFL AND KALB -SHRA/-TSRA LIKELY. AT
KPSF AND KPOU CHC -SHRA/-TSRA.
THU...MVFR WITH IFR POSSIBLE. -SHRA/-TSRA LIKELY.
THU NIGHT...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA/-TSRA ESPECIALLY IN THE EVNG.
FRI...MAINLY VFR. CHC -SHRA MAINLY IN THE AM.
SAT...VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY DUE TO ON AND OFF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. RH VALUES WILL RECOVER
TO NEAR 100 PERCENT AT NIGHT...AND RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY STAY
ABOVE 50 PERCENT DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO SERVICE AREAS PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5
DAYS. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS OF RAINFALL MAY OCCUR TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORMS. 3-HR ZONAL FFG VALUES ARE
GENERALLY IN THE 2.4-3.1 INCH RANGE AT THIS TIME...WHICH ARE HIGH
FOR MID TO LATE MAY.

DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
BASIN AVERAGE QPF WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE THIS WEEK. THE BEST
THREAT FOR SEEING SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. WHILE IT/S DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT
EXACT AMOUNTS...GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER /WPC/
SUGGESTS THAT MOST AREAS WILL SEE BETWEEN ONE HALF INCH AND AN INCH
AND A HALF OF RAIN THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...WITH THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/WASULA

000
FXUS61 KOKX 210904
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
504 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOG/STRATUS EARLY THIS MORNING. LACK OF OBS
HAS MADE IT MORE DIFFICULT EARLY THIS MORNING TO ASCERTAIN EXTENT
OF FOG THIS MORNING...BUT WILL MAINTAIN DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR NOW.

OTHERWISE...FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS TO THE NORTH AS RIDGE BUILDS
ALOFT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE LITTLE AS IT REMAINS PARALLEL TO UPPER FLOW.

A GENERAL SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS...AND EXPECT
TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM THE SOUTH FACING SHORES TO SOAR TODAY. H8
HPA TEMPS 12-16C...AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE TEMPS TO 30C OR
GREATER DURING MAX HEATING. MOS TEMPS GENERALLY ACCEPTED WITH 80S
MANY LOCATIONS...EXCEPT 70S ERN LONG ISLAND AND SERN CT.

MARGINAL INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BUILD BY AFTERNOON...ASSUMING
DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE MIDDLE 60S. HOWEVER...THESE DEW POINTS
LIKELY MIX OUT SLIGHTLY AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. THERMAL TROUGH
COULD BE THE FOCUS FOR SOME CONVECTION...BUT THE BULK OF THE
SHOWERS AND TSTMS SHOULD RIDE ALONG THE FRONT. AS SUCH...INTERIOR
SECTIONS SHOULD SEE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT MESOSCALE MODEL FCST REFLECTIVITY MOVING SE TOWARD
CSTL LOCALES BY EVENING...ALTHOUGH LIKELY WEAKENING AS THEY HIT THE
MARINE LAYER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
ANY LINGERING CONVECTION THIS EVENING SHOULD DIMINISH IN COVERAGE
AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. ALTHOUGH FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEARBY COULD
TRIGGER AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TSTM OVERNIGHT. MAIN ISSUE TONIGHT
WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG ONCE AGAIN AS SOUTHERLY WINDS
PREVAIL AND THE AIRMASS REMAINS QUITE MOIST.

LOWS WILL BE QUITE WARM...60S PER MOS.

FOR WEDNESDAY...RIDGE SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST AS UPSTREAM TROUGH
FINALLY MAKES EASTWARD PROGRESS. HOWEVER...ANOTHER WARM DAY IS ON
TAP. MORNING FOG AND STRATUS WILL GIVE WAY TO AT LEAST PARTIAL
SUNSHINE. ONCE AGAIN...CONVECTION SHOULD BE SCATTERED AT BEST WITH
WEAK TO MARGINAL INSTABILITY IN PLACE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHEAST FROM NEAR THE CANADIAN
BORDER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING TRIGGERING SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FRONT WILL THEN MOVE OFFSHORE BY
FRIDAY MORNING WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG
IT...KEEPING SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

EXPECT HIGHS ON THURSDAY TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT IN UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DROP SOUTHEAST FROM CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE CENTRAL US AND BUILD
EASTWARD THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY. HIGHS SATURDAY THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 WITH LOWS IN THE
MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM W TO E THROUGH NEW ENGLAND WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TODAY. IT MAY SINK SLIGHTLY S BUT IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN N OF THE TERMINALS.

FOG HAS FINALLY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD EARLY THIS MORNING. CONDS
RANGING MVFR TO LIFR OUTSIDE OF NYC TERMINALS WHERE CONDS REMAIN
MAINLY VFR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KJFK. EXACT TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT
IS TRICKY BUT VFR SHOULD RETURN BETWEEN 14-17Z ALL TERMINALS. VFR
THEN EXPECTED INTO THE EVE BEFORE FOG/STRATUS RETURNS.

MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG DOWN FROM THE NORTH WITH
A SFC TROUGH DEVELOPING IN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS. CONVECTION
WILL LIKELY FIRE NEAR BOTH OF THESE BOUNDARIES...BUT THERE`S SOME
QUESTION HOW FAR S AND W TSTMS WILL MAKE IT BEFORE THE FIZZLE DUE
TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ONLY HAVE TEMPO AT KSWF LATE THIS
AFTN/EARLY EVE FOR THIS.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF FOG/STRATUS IMPROVEMENT THIS
MORNING IS UNCERTAIN. MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: FOG/STRATUS MAY NOT OCCUR THIS MORNING. IF
IT DOES...TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: FOG/STRATUS MAY NOT OCCUR THIS MORNING. IF
IT DOES...TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS YELLOW...WHICH
IMPLIES  SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR FOG/STRATUS MAY NOT OCCUR THIS MORNING.
IF IT DOES...TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS:TIMING OF FOG/STRATUS IMPROVEMENT THIS
MORNING IS UNCERTAIN. MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF FOG/STRATUS IMPROVEMENT THIS
MORNING IS UNCERTAIN. MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUE NGT...BECOMING IFR WITH FOG AND STRATUS.
.WED-FRI...SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS. AT NIGHT...IFR POSSIBLE
WITH STRATUS/FOG.
.SAT...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
DENSE FOG ACROSS THE WATERS THIS MORNING SHOULD IMPROVE SOME BY
AFTERNOON. SOUTH WINDS PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...BUT SUB SCA
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED.

CONTINUED SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IS FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS TO THE NORTH. DEEP LOW
LEVEL INVERSION AND MINIMAL TEMP/DEW POINT SPREAD WILL WARRANT
INCLUSION OF FOG OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW 5 FT OVER THE OCEAN WATERS...1 FT OR LESS
ELSEWHERE TODAY AND LIKELY TONIGHT.

LATEST WAVE WATCH III GUIDANCE FOR THE OCEAN WATERS SUGGEST 5 TO
6 FT SEAS BY WEDNESDAY DUE TO PERSISTENT SOUTH FLOW AND POSSIBLE
SOUTHERLY SWELL. HOWEVER...WAVE WATCH HAS BEEN OVERFORECASTING
SEAS BY A FOOT OR TWO...SO CONFIDENCE IN THIS HAPPENING IS NOT
HIGH AT THIS TIME.

SEAS EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE SCA LEVELS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH 25 KT
WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN WATERS BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WATERS THURSDAY EVENING INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE ON
LATE ON FRIDAY. WINDS COULD BE BELOW SCA LEVELS BY FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH SEAS REMAINING ABOVE SCA CRITERIA THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED TO SCT SHOWERS OR TSTMS LATE IN THE DAY TODAY...MAINLY
INLAND. IMPACTS WILL BE MINIMAL.

SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS WED-THU WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...WITH THE BEST CHANCES NORTH/WEST OF NYC. TOTAL BASIN
AVG QPF FOR WED-THU COULD BE 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMTS IN TSTMS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CTZ009>012.
NY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ071-
     078>081-177-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-
     345-350-353-355.

&&

$$

000
FXUS61 KBOX 210834
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
434 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...

A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY RESULTING IN BRIEFLY COOLER WEATHER ACROSS
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A
COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR MASS IS EXPECTED FOR THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
STILL TRYING TO NAIL DOWN THE LOCATION OF A BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT
ACROSS EASTERN MA THIS MORNING. WINDS ARE VERY LIGHT ACROSS MOST
OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. LATEST MESONET WIND DATA INDICATED THIS
FRONT HAD MOVED ONSHORE ACROSS THE NORTH SHORE. FARTHER SOUTH...
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF BOSTON...THIS FRONT HAS APPARENTLY NOT MADE
MUCH PROGRESS.

THE LOCATION OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PLAY A CRUCIAL ROLE IN
OUR WEATHER TODAY. SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER TEMPERATURES WILL BE FELT
EAST OF THIS FRONT...WITH ANOTHER DAY OF SUMMER-LIKE WARMTH WELL
TO THE WEST. CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO PLAY A MAJOR ROLE AS WELL.
MARINE STRATUS AND PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL TAKE A WHILE TO DISSIPATE
THIS MORNING.

THESE TEMPERATURES IN TURN WILL INFLUENCE HOW MUCH CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY IS GENERATED TODAY. LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS HAD
1000-200 J/KG OF MOST UNSTABLE CAPE. MIXED-LAYER CAPE WAS NON-
EXISTENT. MARGINAL MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES THIS MORNING SHOULD MEAN
THE BROKEN CONVECTIVE LINE MOVING EAST ACROSS NY STATE SHOULD
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST OF THE CT RIVER VALLEY ACROSS SOUTHERN NH.
THAT SAID...STILL MAINTAINED AT LEAST AN ISOLATED THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF ROUTE 2 IN MA AND SOUTHERN NH
THIS MORNING.

AS FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON...THINKING AIRMASS WILL DESTABILIZE TO
RESULT IN MIXED LAYER CAPES OF 750-1250 J/KG. MARGINAL MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES SHOULD CONTINUE. GREATEST THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE INTERIOR. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE
OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF ELEVATED CONVECTION MOVING FARTHER EAST
OVER THE SURFACE MARINE LAYER. SHOULD THIS HAPPEN...THINKING
CONVECTION WOULD BE WEAKENING AS IT DOES SO.

TEMPERATURES WERE A BLEND OF THE MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE FARTHER NORTH LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A WARMER DAY
ACROSS EASTERN MA. STILL NOT CONVINCED SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT LOCAL SEABREEZES FROM DEVELOPING...SO
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINES.

AM CURRENTLY EXPECTING A BRIEF DIMINISHMENT OF ANY CONVECTION
LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...AS SUGGESTED BY CLIMATOLOGY.
INSTABILITY REGENERATES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...SO KEPT AT LEAST A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. THE LOWEST
RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS...WHERE ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES LOWER.

USED A BLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE ONCE AGAIN FOR TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURS INTO FRIDAY
* COOLER AND LESS HUMID FOR THE WEEKEND

CONFIDENCE LEVEL/MODEL GUIDANCE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE
OVERALL FORECAST...YET LOW CONFIDENCE ON MODEL PERFORMANCE. THE
00Z GFS/NAM SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWED DOWN THE DIGGING TROUGH FOR THE
NORTHEAST. THE REST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE FOLLOWED SUIT BUT NOT AS
DRASTICALLY. LEANED FORECAST TOWARDS EC/UKMET WHICH WHERE IN
BETWEEN THE 12Z AND 00Z GUIDANCE AS WELL AS PREV FORECAST. OVERALL
HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIP WILL OCCUR THURS AND MODERATE
CONFIDENCE FOR FRIDAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A COOL DOWN FOR THE WEEK
WITH MOD CONFIDENCE FOR SEASONAL TEMPS AND DRY FORECAST FOR
BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK.

DETAILS...

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...

APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING A ROUND OF PRECIP AND
THUNDER TO THE REGION. STILL SOME TIMING ISSUES AS MODELS STILL
DIFFER ON EXACT LOCATION AND MESOSCALE PARAMETERS.
REGARDLESS...SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL BE LOCATED IN THE WARM SECTOR
OF THE SYSTEM ALLOWING HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND THEREFORE MUGGY
CONDITIONS. TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE 80S. BELIEVE DIURNAL PRECIP
WILL BE THE MAIN TREAT FOR THIS DAY...WITH STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE.
MAIN THREAT OF THESE STORMS WILL BE HAIL...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL CHANGE THE
CONVECTIVE MODE TO MORE OF A POSSIBLE SQUALL LINE ON FRIDAY.
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS APPEAR TO BE MORE IN LINE DUE TO THE SLOW DOWN
OF THE OVERALL SYSTEM. ONLY THING TRULY LACKING IS THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY AS CLOUD DEBRIS WILL BE AROUND FROM THE PREV NIGHTS
SHOWERS/THUNDER. IF STORMS DO DEVELOP THEN BELIEVE THE MAIN THREAT
WILL BE STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS REACH CLOSE TO 1.5
IN.

THIS WEEKEND...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH OVER THE WEEK...CAA WILL
BRING A THERMAL TROUGH INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL DROP TEMPS WELL
BELOW SEASONAL AVG. AM NOT ANTICIPATED ANY FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES
AT THIS TIME BUT MAY NEED TO MONITOR IN THE FUTURE AS THE ENTIRE
AREA IS NOW IN THE GROWING SEASON. EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR
THE WEEKEND AND TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

MONDAY AND BEYOND...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL HELP TEMPS REACH SEASONAL
CONDITIONS. APPEARS THAT THERE IS LIMITED MOISTURE...HOWEVER
CANNOT RULE OUT A SPOT SHOWER OR TWO...ESP IF SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS.
&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

OVERVIEW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE OF
STRATUS AND FOG BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.

PATCHY MVFR CONDITIONS HAVE SPREAD NORTH ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THIS MORNING...MAINLY DUE TO VISIBILITY. SOME LOWER CLOUDS
ACCOMPANYING THESE LOWER VISIBILITIES...BUT CIGS ARE DIFFICULT TO
FIND. ONLY TERMINALS ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS...AS WELL AS THE
IMMEDIATE SOUTH COAST...SHOWING ANY IFR CIGS THIS MORNING.

TODAY...CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE CT RIVER VALLEY.

TONIGHT...WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR IN STRATUS AND FOG REDEVELOP.

WEDNESDAY...PRETTY MUCH A REPEAT OF TUESDAY. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT
TO VFR/MVFR FROM WEST TO EAST.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...MAINLY DUE TO TIMING OF VFR
IMPROVEMENT.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...MAINLY DUE TO TIMING OF VFR
IMPROVEMENT.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE ON SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENTS. VERY UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH
VARIABILITY BETWEEN VFR CONDITIONS AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN
SHRA/TSRA/FOG. IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA MOST OF TODAY. LEANED MORE HEAVILY UPON THE SWAN WAVE
GUIDANCE AS THE WNA WAVE GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE TOO HIGH. STILL
EXPECTING AREAS OF FOG TO PERSIST THROUGH TODAY BEFORE EXPANDING
ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT.

INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS WEDNESDAY MAY LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF
MARGINAL 5 FT SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OUTER COASTAL WATERS OF MA
AND RI. WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
RIGHT NOW TO AVOID CONFUSION WITH EXISTING ADVISORY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY...SEAS INCREASE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE
WATERS.  SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS GUST TO NEAR 25 KTS.  SCA WILL BE
NECESSARY FOR SEAS IF NOT WINDS AS WELL. VISIBILITY MAY BE
LIMITED AT TIMES IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM
WILL INCREASE SEAS ABOVE 5FT DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...SCA WILL BE
NEEDED. EXPECT LOW VSBYS IN HEAVY SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDER AS WELL.
BELIEVE FRIDAY IS THE BETTER DAY FOR TSTORMS ACROSS THE WATERS AS
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY.

THIS WEEKEND...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SEAS WILL REMAIN ABOVE SCA
FOR MOST OF THE WEEKEND ESP FOR THE OUTER WATERS. GUSTY NW BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL BRING GUSTS CLOSE TO GALE FORCE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ020>024.
NH...NONE.
RI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS
     MORNING FOR ANZ255-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN

000
FXUS61 KALY 210825
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
425 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMING STATIONARY ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK AND NEW
ENGLAND.  A DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS.  THE HUMID AND UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES TOMORROW AND
THURSDAY WITH MORE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE A
COLD FRONT RETURNS DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 424 AM EDT...A BROAD RIDGE AT 500 HPA IS SITUATED OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS...WITH A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...OUR REGION REMAINS IN A WARM
SECTOR...WITH A VERY SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY SITUATED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF OUR AREA.

MOVING ALONG THIS SFC BOUNDARY AND AIDED BY A STRONG SW LOW LEVEL
JET...A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY. THIS LINE HAS WEAKENED FROM EARLIER
IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHEN IT PRODUCED WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL
ACROSS CNY AND THE LAKE ONTARIO REGION. STILL...A QUICK DOWNPOUR
AND SOME GUSTY WINDS WILL SWEEP FROM WEST TO EAST FROM THE
SOUTHEASTERN ADKS AND CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY INTO THE LAKE GEORGE
SARATOGA REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS THROUGH SUNRISE. MOST AREAS
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION ON SOUTH WILL STAY DRY. BY SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE...THIS BATCH OF CONVECTION SHOULD BE DONE AND MOST AREAS
ACROSS THE CWA WILL BE DRY.

HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP DURING
THE HEATING OF THE DAY AS A SFC WAVE ALONG THE FRONT BEGINS TO
APPROACH THE AREA. OUR LOCAL HIRES WRF SUGGESTS THAT SOME SHOWERS OR
STORMS MAY BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN BY THE LATE
MORNING OR EARLY AFTN HOURS. THE 3 KM HRRR GUIDANCE SEEMS TO SHOW
THAT IT COULD HOLD OFF UNTIL THE EARLY TO MID AFTN HOURS. IN
EITHER CASES...ONCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP THEY SHOULD
MOVE TO THE W-SW.

WITH MAX TEMPS REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS THE
AREA...AND TDS WELL INTO THE 60S...THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY FOR TSTMS. WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 20-35 KTS AND MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF ABOUT 6-7 DEGREES C PER KM...THERE COULD BE
ENOUGH OF THE INGREDIENTS IN PLACE TO ALLOW A STORM OR TWO TO
BECOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE. SPC HAS PLACED OUR REGION IN A
/SEE TEXT/ AREA FOR TODAY...AND WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH IF ANY
STORMS GROW TALL ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. WE
WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS IN OUR HWO AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ONGOING CONVECTION THIS EVENING LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS
THE SFC WAVE MOVES ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE BEST CHC FOR SEEING
SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA.
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...ANY SVR THREAT WILL BE DIMINISHED...BUT
THUNDER SHOULD STILL CONTINUE DUE TO LINGERING ELEVATED
INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MILD AND
MUGGY WITH UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ACROSS THE AREA.

THE SFC BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.
THE RIDGE AXIS WILL START TO SHIFT EASTWARD AS THE UPPER LOW OVER
THE PLAINS SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD. DESPITE THE WEAK LARGE SCALE
FORCING...THERE LOOKS TO BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS AS
A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH MAY BE IN PLACE ACROSS OUR AREA BY AFTN.
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE...ESP WITH
WARM TEMPS REACHING THE 80S IN MOST AREAS...AND TDS IN THE MID 60S
F. ANY STORM WILL AGAIN BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS/LARGE HAIL...AND SPC HAS PLACED A GOOD CHUNK OF OUR AREA IN
A SLIGHT RISK FOR SVR STORMS. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HWO AS
WELL.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER AGAIN INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH CONTINUED MILD AND MUGGY CONDITIONS. MINS WILL ONLY DROP INTO
THE 60S...WITH MID TO UPPER 60S IN THE HUDSON VALLEY.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO MAKE SOME STEADY EASTWARD
PROGRESS ON THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. A SFC COLD FRONT WILL
ADVANCE EASTWARD DURING THIS TIME AS WELL. THIS FRONT WILL BE A
FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESP FOR THURSDAY
AFTN INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...THERE WILL BE
ONE LAST WARM AND MUGGY DAY...WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S. MIN TEMPS
WILL START TO COOL OFF BY THURSDAY NIGHT WILL THE BOUNDARY MOVING
THROUGH...WITH MINS IN THE 40S AND 50S ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE
MILDEST TEMPS IN SOUTHEASTERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT SHOULD EXIT THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY WITH
LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING IN NY AND INTO
THE AFTERNOON IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.  THERE SHOULD BE DECENT
BOUNDARY LAYER FORCING WITH A TIGHT THERMAL AND MOISTURE GRADIENT
ALONG THE COLD FRONT...SO WILL KEEP AN EYE FOR ANY STRONG
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL
THROUGH THE DAY...AND HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE CAPPED AROUND THE
MID 60S TO AROUND 70...BUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.

ONCE THE COLD FRONT IS GONE...HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS IN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. SOME
LINGERING CLOUDINESS COULD AFFECT THE MID HUDSON VALLEY INTO WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT COULD BE SLOW TO EXIT THOSE
AREAS. HOWEVER...ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF OUR
AREA.  HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...UPPER 50S SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...INCREASING SUNSHINE AND SLOWLY MODERATING
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 AND ON
MONDAY...HIGHS AROUND 70 TO THE LOWER 70S.  TEMPERATURES COOLER IN
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS BOTH DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKY ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH A WEAK
WARM FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN NY. SOME FOG HAS FORMED AT KPSF AND
ACKNOWLEDGING IFR FOG TEMPORARILY MVFR THROUGH ABOUT 14Z AT KPSF. A
BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER LAKE ONTARIO IS MOVING
EAST...AND THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION IS NEAR KSYR.  THERE
IS A GUST FRONT AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION THAT IS MOVING AT AROUND 35
KT...BUT BASED ON THE STEERING FLOW SEEN ON RADARS ACROSS THE
REGION...THIS CONVECTION SHOULD MAINLY TRACK DUE EAST.

AREA 00Z SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW ENOUGH INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION TO
SUSTAIN THE CONVECTION AS IT TRACKS THROUGH EASTERN NY AND INTO
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER...IT IS TIMED TO REACH THE HUDSON
VALLEY AROUND 09Z...AND WITH CONTINUED STABILIZING OF THE ATMOSPHERE
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...AND WEAKENING OF THE
CONVECTION...JUST INDICATING VCSH AT KGFL...KALB AND KPSF...ALTHOUGH
THE BEST CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WOULD BE KGFL BASED ON
RADAR TRENDS. WILL AMEND TAFS AN HOUR OR TWO PRIOR TO A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM IF RADAR SUGGESTS STRENGTH OF CONVECTION AND MOVEMENT
CONTINUES.

OUTSIDE OF THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG
AND SOME SCATTERED VARIABLE BROKEN CLOUDS AROUND 1500 FEET ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT 14Z. ONCE WHATEVER RAIN TRACKS EAST OF THE
REGION...BROKEN CLOUDS ABOVE 3000 FEET TEMPORARILY SCATTERED THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.  SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS COULD
DEVELOP LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING...BUT NO REAL
ORGANIZED FOCUS SO LEAVING OUT ANY VCSH FOR NOW...BUT MAY BE ADDED
IN LATER TAF ISSUANCES TODAY ONCE THE CHARACTER OF CONVECTION IS
KNOWN WHEN IT FORMS.

WINDS SHOULD BE NEARLY CAL THROUGH ABOUT 14Z. WINDS SHOULD BECOME
LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT LESS THAN 10 KT LATER THIS MORNING AND
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT...VFR/MVFR. AT KALB AND KGFL -SHRA LIKELY WITH CHC TSRA.
AT KPSF AND KPOU CHC -SHRA/-TSRA.
WED...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA/-TSRA ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTN.
WED NIGHT...VFR/MVFR. AT KGFL AND KALB -SHRA/-TSRA LIKELY. AT
KPSF AND KPOU CHC -SHRA/-TSRA.
THU...MVFR WITH IFR POSSIBLE. -SHRA/-TSRA LIKELY.
THU NIGHT...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA/-TSRA ESPECIALLY IN THE EVNG.
FRI...MAINLY VFR. CHC -SHRA MAINLY IN THE AM.
SAT...VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY DUE TO ON AND OFF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. RH VALUES WILL RECOVER
TO NEAR 100 PERCENT AT NIGHT...AND RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY STAY
ABOVE 50 PERCENT DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO SERVICE AREAS PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5
DAYS. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS OF RAINFALL MAY OCCUR TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORMS. 3-HR ZONAL FFG VALUES ARE
GENERALLY IN THE 2.4-3.1 INCH RANGE AT THIS TIME...WHICH ARE HIGH
FOR MID TO LATE MAY.

DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
BASIN AVERAGE QPF WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE THIS WEEK. THE BEST
THREAT FOR SEEING SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. WHILE IT/S DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT
EXACT AMOUNTS...GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER /WPC/
SUGGESTS THAT MOST AREAS WILL SEE BETWEEN ONE HALF INCH AND AN INCH
AND A HALF OF RAIN THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...WITH THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/WASULA

000
FXUS61 KOKX 210751
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
351 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOG/STRATUS EARLY THIS MORNING. LACK OF OBS
HAS MADE IT MORE DIFFICULT EARLY THIS MORNING TO ASCERTAIN EXTENT
OF FOG THIS MORNING...BUT WILL MAINTAIN DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR NOW.

OTHERWISE...FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS TO THE NORTH AS RIDGE BUILDS
ALOFT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE LITTLE AS IT REMAINS PARALLEL TO UPPER FLOW.

A GENERAL SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS...AND EXPECT
TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM THE SOUTH FACING SHORES TO SOAR TODAY. H8
HPA TEMPS 12-16C...AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE TEMPS TO 30C OR
GREATER DURING MAX HEATING. MOS TEMPS GENERALLY ACCEPTED WITH 80S
MANY LOCATIONS...EXCEPT 70S ERN LONG ISLAND AND SERN CT.

MARGINAL INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BUILD BY AFTERNOON...ASSUMING
DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE MIDDLE 60S. HOWEVER...THESE DEW POINTS
LIKELY MIX OUT SLIGHTLY AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. THERMAL TROUGH
COULD BE THE FOCUS FOR SOME CONVECTION...BUT THE BULK OF THE
SHOWERS AND TSTMS SHOULD RIDE ALONG THE FRONT. AS SUCH...INTERIOR
SECTIONS SHOULD SEE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT MESOSCALE MODEL FCST REFLECTIVITY MOVING SE TOWARD
CSTL LOCALES BY EVENING...ALTHOUGH LIKELY WEAKENING AS THEY HIT THE
MARINE LAYER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
ANY LINGERING CONVECTION THIS EVENING SHOULD DIMINISH IN COVERAGE
AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. ALTHOUGH FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEARBY COULD
TRIGGER AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TSTM OVERNIGHT. MAIN ISSUE TONIGHT
WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG ONCE AGAIN AS SOUTHERLY WINDS
PREVAIL AND THE AIRMASS REMAINS QUITE MOIST.

LOWS WILL BE QUITE WARM...60S PER MOS.

FOR WEDNESDAY...RIDGE SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST AS UPSTREAM TROUGH
FINALLY MAKES EASTWARD PROGRESS. HOWEVER...ANOTHER WARM DAY IS ON
TAP. MORNING FOG AND STRATUS WILL GIVE WAY TO AT LEAST PARTIAL
SUNSHINE. ONCE AGAIN...CONVECTION SHOULD BE SCATTERED AT BEST WITH
WEAK TO MARGINAL INSTABILITY IN PLACE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHEAST FROM NEAR THE CANADIAN
BORDER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING TRIGGERING SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FRONT WILL THEN MOVE OFFSHORE BY
FRIDAY MORNING WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG
IT...KEEPING SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

EXPECT HIGHS ON THURSDAY TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT IN UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DROP SOUTHEAST FROM CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE CENTRAL US AND BUILD
EASTWARD THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY. HIGHS SATURDAY THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 WITH LOWS IN THE
MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WARM...MOIST AIR OVER THE REGION IS RESULTING IN THE FORMATION OF
FOG. CONDS RANGING FROM VFR TO LIFR ACROSS THE AREA...BUT VSBYS
HAVE BEEN TRENDING DOWN AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNRISE. SW FLOW TYPICALLY DOES NOT PRODUCE WIDESPREAD LIFR/VLIFR
FOG...BUT THE BEST CHANCE WOULD BE AT KBDR/KISP/KGON WITH THE FLOW
OFF THE WATER. KHPN IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DROP TO THESE LEVELS AS
WELL. THE REST OF THE TERMINALS SHOULD EVENTUALLY REACH AT LEAST
IFR...BUT TIMING AND DURATION IS UNCERTAIN. AMENDMENTS MAY BE
NEEDED THROUGH INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. PATCHY LIFR STRATUS MAY
ALSO DEVELOP...HOWEVER IT`S A BIT DIFFICULT TO SEE ON IR SAT DUE
TO THIN HIGH CLOUDS. CONDS GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR BY MIDDAY.

MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG DOWN FROM THE NORTH WITH
A SFC TROUGH DEVELOPING IN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS. CONVECTION
MAY FIRE ON EITHER OF THESE BOUNDARIES...BUT THERE`S SOME QUESTION
HOW FAR S AND W TSTMS WILL MAKE IT BEFORE THE FIZZLE DUE TO THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ONLY HAVE TEMPO AT KSWF LATE THIS
AFTN/EARLY EVE FOR THIS.

FOG/STRATUS LIKELY TONIGHT...HOWEVER TIMING IS UNCERTAIN.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUE NGT...BECOMING IFR WITH FOG AND STRATUS.
.WED-FRI...SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS. AT NIGHT...IFR POSSIBLE
WITH STRATUS/FOG.
.SAT...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
DENSE FOG ACROSS THE WATERS THIS MORNING SHOULD IMPROVE SOME BY
AFTERNOON. SOUTH WINDS PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...BUT SUB SCA
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED.

CONTINUED SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IS FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS TO THE NORTH. DEEP LOW
LEVEL INVERSION AND MINIMAL TEMP/DEW POINT SPREAD WILL WARRANT
INCLUSION OF FOG OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW 5 FT OVER THE OCEAN WATERS...1 FT OR LESS
ELSEWHERE TODAY AND LIKELY TONIGHT.

LATEST WAVE WATCH III GUIDANCE FOR THE OCEAN WATERS SUGGEST 5 TO
6 FT SEAS BY WEDNESDAY DUE TO PERSISTENT SOUTH FLOW AND POSSIBLE
SOUTHERLY SWELL. HOWEVER...WAVE WATCH HAS BEEN OVERFORECASTING
SEAS BY A FOOT OR TWO...SO CONFIDENCE IN THIS HAPPENING IS NOT
HIGH AT THIS TIME.

SEAS EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE SCA LEVELS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH 25 KT
WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN WATERS BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WATERS THURSDAY EVENING INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE ON
LATE ON FRIDAY. WINDS COULD BE BELOW SCA LEVELS BY FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH SEAS REMAINING ABOVE SCA CRITERIA THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED TO SCT SHOWERS OR TSTMS LATE IN THE DAY TODAY...MAINLY
INLAND. IMPACTS WILL BE MINIMAL.

SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS WED-THU WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...WITH THE BEST CHANCES NORTH/WEST OF NYC. TOTAL BASIN
AVG QPF FOR WED-THU COULD BE 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMTS IN TSTMS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CTZ009>012.
NY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ071-
     078>081-177-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-
     345-350-353-355.

&&

$$

000
FXUS61 KOKX 210700
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
300 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA WILL SINK SOUTH CLOSER TO THE AREA
LATER TODAY...THEN LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA UNTIL A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
BROKEN TO SCATTERED STRATUS REMAINS OVER LONG ISLAND FROM NEAR
ISLIP AND EAST. FOG BANK SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND STILL EXPECTED TO
EXPAND NORTHWARD TONIGHT. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE DENSE FOG ADVY
ALTHOUGH DELAYED DENSE FOG IN FORECAST PER OBS/ SAT IMAGERY.
DO NOT EXPECT MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPS OVERNIGHT FROM CURRENT
READINGS...MAINLY LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH ON TUE AS RIDGE PREVAILS
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF UPSTREAM TROUGH...THEN DROP S INTO
SOUTHERN CT AND PERHAPS ERN LONG ISLAND TUE NIGHT. THE FRONT
SHOULD BE PRECEDED BY DIURNAL CONVECTION MAINLY INLAND LATE TUE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...THEN A GENERAL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND ISOLD THUNDER LATER TUE NIGHT.

TUE SHOULD FEATURE MORE SUNSHINE THAN TODAY AFTER MORNING FOG
BURNS OFF...AND WITH ARE MORE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 80S INLAND AND ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF WRN
LONG ISLAND...AND 70S IN COASTAL CT AND THE REST OF LONG ISLAND.

LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD REDEVELOP TUE NIGHT...MAINLY LATER AT
NIGHT AS IT WILL TAKE BLYR LONGER TO COOL DOWN CLOSER TO
DEW POINTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ABOUT THE MAIN FEATURES OF THE
WEEK. LONG TERM STARTS OUT WITH UPPER RIDING OVER THE AREA WITH
A MIDWEST TROUGH BEGINNING TO PHASE WITH A CANADIAN TROUGH. A WARM
FRONT WILL BE TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY...EXTENDING FROM
A LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE MIDWEST.

A WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW SETS UP BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...ALLOWING TEMPS
ON WEDNESDAY TO WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. THERE IS A WIDE RANGE
OF HIGH TEMP VALUES ON WED...NAM 2M TEMPS HAS HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S
OUT WEST...WHICH COULD POSSIBLY BE DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN CLOUD
COVER. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER MET...NOT AS WARM AS THE
NAM...WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S. LOWS
WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

ALSO ON WEDNESDAY...WITH THE MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW NEAR THE WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. ML AND SFC CAPE WEST
OF NYC WILL BE REACHING ABOVE 1000 J/KG IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH
DECENT LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. EVEN WITH THE FRONT NEARBY...LIFT MAY
NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO GENERATE ANY WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN WITH PW ABOVE
1.5 INCHES. ONLY HAVE CHANCE POPS IN WED AS THERE IS SOME
DISCREPANCY ON THE TIMING OF THE PRECIP APPROACHING THE AREA AND THE
COVERAGE OF IT.

DEEP TROUGH THEN DEVELOPS OVER THE MIDWEST ON THURSDAY AND TRACKS
EAST WITH THE ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NE INTO CANADA AND
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT SOUTH OF IT. COLD FRONT APPROACHES THURSDAY
EVENING WITH A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING AHEAD OF IT...ONCE
AGAIN TRIGGERING SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. INSTABILITY WILL BE
SLIGHTLY LESS THAT WED BUT BETTER LIFT WILL BE EVIDENT. STILL NOT
EXPECTING ANYTHING SEVERE BUT MAY SEE STRONG STORMS THAT WED. DO
HAVE LIKELY POPS IN FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF THE TIMING OF THE RAINFALL. TEMPS WILL BE
COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY...A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THE TROUGH MOVES EAST AND RAIN ENDS WEST TO EAST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE AND WINDS SHIFTING TO THE
NORTHWEST. MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND WILL BE DRY WITH TEMPS RIGHT AT
NORMAL. HIGHS WILL WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FRI-MON.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WARM...MOIST AIR OVER THE REGION IS RESULTING IN THE FORMATION OF
FOG. CONDS RANGING FROM VFR TO LIFR ACROSS THE AREA...BUT VSBYS
HAVE BEEN TRENDING DOWN AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNRISE. SW FLOW TYPICALLY DOES NOT PRODUCE WIDESPREAD LIFR/VLIFR
FOG...BUT THE BEST CHANCE WOULD BE AT KBDR/KISP/KGON WITH THE FLOW
OFF THE WATER. KHPN IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DROP TO THESE LEVELS AS
WELL. THE REST OF THE TERMINALS SHOULD EVENTUALLY REACH AT LEAST
IFR...BUT TIMING AND DURATION IS UNCERTAIN. AMENDMENTS MAY BE
NEEDED THROUGH INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. PATCHY LIFR STRATUS MAY
ALSO DEVELOP...HOWEVER IT`S A BIT DIFFICULT TO SEE ON IR SAT DUE
TO THIN HIGH CLOUDS. CONDS GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR BY MIDDAY.

MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG DOWN FROM THE NORTH WITH
A SFC TROUGH DEVELOPING IN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS. CONVECTION
MAY FIRE ON EITHER OF THESE BOUNDARIES...BUT THERE`S SOME QUESTION
HOW FAR S AND W TSTMS WILL MAKE IT BEFORE THE FIZZLE DUE TO THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ONLY HAVE TEMPO AT KSWF LATE THIS
AFTN/EARLY EVE FOR THIS.

FOG/STRATUS LIKELY TONIGHT...HOWEVER TIMING IS UNCERTAIN.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUE NGT...BECOMING IFR WITH FOG AND STRATUS.
.WED-FRI...SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS. AT NIGHT...IFR POSSIBLE
WITH STRATUS/FOG.
.SAT...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS REMAIN BELOW 5 FT...SO HAVE CANCELLED SCA FOR HAZ SEAS.

DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED AND ADVISORY REMAINS THROUGH THE MORNING.
THE DENSE FOG COULD LAST ON THE OCEAN INTO TUE NIGHT OR WED
MORNING.

SEAS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ON WED VIA A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT. SEAS COULD BE ABOVE 5 FT BY WED
AFTERNOON...WITH 25 KT WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN WATERS BY
WED EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS LATE THU NIGHT...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE ON FRI. WINDS COULD BE
BELOW SCA CRITERIA BY EARLY FRI MORNING...WITH SEAS REMAINING
ABOVE 5 FT THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON THE
TIMING OF THE COLD FROPA AND THE INCREASE OF WINDS ON WED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLD TO WIDELY SCT SHOWERS OR TSTMS LATE IN THE DAY TUE...MAINLY
INLAND. IMPACTS WILL BE MINIMAL.

SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS WED-THU WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...WITH THE BEST CHANCES NORTH/WEST OF NYC. TOTAL BASIN
AVG QPF FOR WED-THU COULD BE 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMTS IN TSTMS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CTZ009>012.
NY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ071-
     078>081-177-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-
     345-350-353-355.

&&

$$

000
FXUS61 KALY 210531
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
131 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND
INTO THE DAY ON A TUESDAY WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMING
STATIONARY ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  A
DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  THE HUMID AND UNSETTLED WEATHER
CONTINUES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH MORE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 131 AM EDT...A MILD AND MUGGY AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPS ARE STILL WELL INTO THE 60S....AND TDS
HAVE RISEN INTO THE 60S ALL THE WAY INTO THE ADIRONDACKS AS WELL.
A SLOW MOVING SFC BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE CWA.

THE LATEST REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR SHOWS TWO SEPARATE LINES OF
CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL NEW
YORK AND LAKE ONTARIO. THESE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE PERSISTED...DESPITE IT
BEING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...DUE TO ENOUGH INSTABILITY IN PLACE. AS
THESE STORMS CONTINUE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD THEY SHOULD GRAZE OUR
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND ADIRONDACK ZONES. WHILE SFC BASED
INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING ACROSS OUR AREA...ENOUGH ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WILL BE AROUND TO KEEP THE THUNDER RISK IN PLACE. WITH
THE PROXIMITY OF THE SFC BOUNDARY AND DECENT MID LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION...THERES NO REASON TO THINK THESE SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE
BEFORE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF OUR AREA. WHILE
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WX IS NOT ANTICIPATED WITH THESE STORMS...THEY
STILL MAY PRODUCE A QUICK BURST OF HEAVY RAINFALL...AND PERHAPS
SOME GUSTY WINDS TO 45 MPH. THEY SHOULD BE MOVING EAST INTO VT BY
AROUND DAYBREAK. FOR AREAS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD...IT
SHOULD REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT WITH SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE.

TEMPS WILL HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WITH
MINS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...A SFC WAVE MOVES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/WRN GREAT LAKES
REGION...AS THE H500 RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO FLATTEN OVER NY AND NEW
ENGLAND. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT STARTS OUT STATIONARY OVER THE
REGION BEGINS TO LIFT BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. A MID LEVEL SHORT-WAVE APPROACHES IN THE W/NW FLOW
ALOFT. A WEAK SFC WAVE MOVES ALONG THE BOUNDARY FOCUSING SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BETTER INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE FROM
THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE GFS/NAM HINTING AT SOME
SBCAPES IN THE 1000-2000+ J/KG RANGE. THERE IS MUCH LESS
INSTABILITY TO THE NORTH. THE BETTER 0-6 KM BULK /DEEP LAYER/ SHEAR IS
STRONGEST NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...WITH 30 KTS OR LESS TO THE
SOUTH. THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT IDEAL OFF THE NAM WITH
GENERALLY LESS THAN 6 C/KM...WITH THE GFS HINTING AT SOME MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES CLOSER TO 6.5C/KM SOUTH AND WEST OF KALB IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE BEST SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
ARE OUT OF PHASE...BUT IF A CLUSTER OR COMPLEX GETS GOING WITH
THE WAVE THERE COULD BE A FEW STRONGER STORMS WITH AN ISOLATED SVR
THREAT. THE SEE TEXT FROM SPC LOOKS REASONABLE. THE UNFAVORABLE
LAPSE RATES WOULD INDICATE LESS OF A HAIL THREAT...AND A GREATER
ISOLD WIND THREAT WITH PERHAPS SOME BOWING SEGMENTS. WILL MENTION
AN ISOLD THREAT IN THE HWO. THE POPS WERE KEPT IN THE CHC CATEGORY
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME LIKELY VALUES OVER THE SRN DACKS.

THE OTHER INHIBITOR FOR ANY STRONGER TO ISOLD SVR TSRAS WILL BE
THE AMOUNT OF SFC DESTABILIZATION. THE BEST CHC OF SUNSHINE
APPEARS TO BE SOUTH OF CAPITAL REGION WHERE WE HAVE THE HIGHEST
TEMPS FORECASTED WITH H850 TEMPS OF +15C TO +16C. EXPECT HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO M80S FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH IN THE
VALLEYS...AND MID AND U70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE SRN
DACKS...AND SRN GREENS WILL HAVE MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN THE U60S TO
M70S...WITH MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS.

TUE NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND
THEN THE WARM FRONT STARTS TO LIFT FURTHER NORTH AND EAST. THE
BETTER THERMAL GRADIENT...AND THE LOW-LEVEL SFC-H850 BAROCLINIC
ZONE SETS UP OVER THE NRN ZONES WHERE LIKELY POPS WERE KEPT IN FOR
SHOWERS AND A CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY WANES
AFTER 06Z WITH SHOWALTER VALUES IN THE 0 TO -2C RANGE ON THE NAM.
ANOTHER MUGGY NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPS IN THE M50S TO M60S.
THE MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE AGREES THE BEST CHANCE FOR MODERATE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND A HALF AN INCH OR MORE WILL BE OVER THE
NRN HALF OF THE HSA.

WED-WED NIGHT...OUR FCST REFLECTS A LITTLE LULL IN THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN LINE WITH THE LATEST NAM DURING THE
MORNING WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE NRN EXTREME...AND A
SLIGHT CHC OVER THE SRN TWO THIRDS. HENCE...WE ARE BUYING INTO THE
FCST AREA BUSTING BACK INTO THE WARM SECTOR WITH THE BOUNDARY NEAR
NRN NY AND NEW ENGLAND. H850 TEMPS RISE FURTHER TO +15C TO +17C
OVER THE ENTIRE FCST AREA...WITH POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT SW WINDS
SETTING UP IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. FORECASTED SOME MID AND EVEN
SPOTTY U80S IN THE VALLEYS /ESPECIALLY NEAR KPOU/...WITH U70S TO
L80S OVER TH HILLS AND MTNS. ANOTHER WAVE WILL BE APPROACH FROM
THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND A PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL FOCUS SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FOR
THE WRN ZONES. A CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS INCLUDED.
PWATS WILL BE IN THE 1.25-1.67" RANGE...A COUPLE OF STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR SOME HEAVY BURSTS OF RAINFALL. SOME
MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL FOR THE HSA.

OVERNIGHT...THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW CLOSE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
GETS TOWARDS THE FCST AREA. THE LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF HAS THE
FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE NRN
TIER OF THE FCST AREA BTWN 06Z-12Z. THE GFS/NAM ARE SLOWER WITH
THEIR RESPECTIVE MODEL RUNS. FOR NOW...LIKELY POPS HAVE BEEN USED
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND WEST OVERNIGHT...WITH HIGH
CHANCE VALUES TO THE SOUTH. THURSDAY MORNING LOOKS LIKE THE
STICKIEST OF THE STRETCH WITH LOWER TO M60S EVERYWHERE...EXCEPT
SOME U50S OVER THE SRN GREEN MTNS AND SRN DACKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ACTIVE START EXPECTED TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHEAST FROM NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER THURSDAY
MORNING. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS OUR REGION THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND BE SOUTHEAST OF FA FRIDAY MORNING WITH A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG IT. THIS WAVE MAY KEEP
SHOWERS GOING ON FRIDAY. THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND LOOKS DRY BUT
COOL.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS WHICH MAY
TAPER CONVECTION SOME ALTHOUGH THERE ARE QUITE A FEW FAVORABLE
FACTORS FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. MLMUCAPES AHEAD OF THE
FRONT REACH 1500-2500 J/KG WITH 0-3 KM HELICITIES 60-120 M2/S2 WHILE
UPPER LEVEL JET REACHES 75-90 KTS TO THE NORTHWEST OF FA PLACING OUR
AREA IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION. THUS GENERALLY EXPECT MOSTLY
CLOUDY TO CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH ACTIVITY
TAPERING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS ON
THURSDAY TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S.

FRIDAY...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE MORNING WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AS COASTAL LOW MOVES
QUICKLY DEPARTS NORTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY
MORNING. HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND
70.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DROP SOUTHEAST FROM CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE CENTRAL US AND BUILD
EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY SUNNY TO
SUNNY SKIES AND RELATIVELY COOL CONDITIONS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
AND CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY BUT CHILLY NIGHTS. HIGHS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S WITH LOWS IN
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S WITH SOME LOWER 30S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKY ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH A
WEAK WARM FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN NY. SOME FOG HAS FORMED AT KPSF
AND ACKNOWLEDGING IFR FOG TEMPORARILY MVFR THROUGH ABOUT 14Z AT
KPSF. A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER LAKE ONTARIO IS
MOVING EAST...AND THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION IS NEAR
KSYR. THERE IS A GUST FRONT AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION THAT IS MOVING
AT AROUND 35 KT...BUT BASED ON THE STEERING FLOW SEEN ON RADARS
ACROSS THE REGION...THIS CONVECTION SHOULD MAINLY TRACK DUE EAST.

AREA 00Z SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW ENOUGH INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION TO
SUSTAIN THE CONVECTION AS IT TRACKS THROUGH EASTERN NY AND INTO
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER...IT IS TIMED TO REACH THE HUDSON
VALLEY AROUND 09Z...AND WITH CONTINUED STABILIZING OF THE ATMOSPHERE
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...AND WEAKENING OF THE
CONVECTION...JUST INDICATING VCSH AT KGFL...KALB AND KPSF...ALTHOUGH
THE BEST CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WOULD BE KGFL BASED ON
RADAR TRENDS. WILL AMEND TAFS AN HOUR OR TWO PRIOR TO A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM IF RADAR SUGGESTS STRENGTH OF CONVECTION AND MOVEMENT
CONTINUES.

OUTSIDE OF THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG
AND SOME SCATTERED VARIABLE BROKEN CLOUDS AROUND 1500 FEET ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT 14Z. ONCE WHATEVER RAIN TRACKS EAST OF THE
REGION...BROKEN CLOUDS ABOVE 3000 FEET TEMPORARILY SCATTERED THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.  SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS COULD
DEVELOP LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING...BUT NO REAL
ORGANIZED FOCUS SO LEAVING OUT ANY VCSH FOR NOW...BUT MAY BE ADDED
IN LATER TAF ISSUANCES TODAY ONCE THE CHARACTER OF CONVECTION IS
KNOWN WHEN IT FORMS.

WINDS SHOULD BE NEARLY CAL THROUGH ABOUT 14Z. WINDS SHOULD BECOME
LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT LESS THAN 10 KT LATER THIS MORNING AND
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT...VFR/MVFR. AT KALB AND KGFL -SHRA LIKELY WITH CHC TSRA.
AT KPSF AND KPOU CHC -SHRA/-TSRA.
WED...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA/-TSRA ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTN.
WED NIGHT...VFR/MVFR. AT KGFL AND KALB -SHRA/-TSRA LIKELY. AT
KPSF AND KPOU CHC -SHRA/-TSRA.
THU...MVFR WITH IFR POSSIBLE. -SHRA/-TSRA LIKELY.
THU NIGHT...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA/-TSRA ESPECIALLY IN THE EVNG.
FRI...MAINLY VFR. CHC -SHRA MAINLY IN THE AM.
SAT...VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMING STATIONARY ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  A DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT.  THE HUMID AND UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WITH MORE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
IN THE WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS. INTERMITTENT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO FRIDAY.

THE RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND
LOWER TO 55 TO 70 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON. AN EXCELLENT
RECOVERY WITH RH VALUES INCREASING TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 10 MPH THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...EXCEPT STRONGER GUSTS IN THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO SERVICE AREAS PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5
DAYS. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS OF RAINFALL MAY OCCUR THROUGH
THE MID WEEK IN THE HUMID AIR MASS. 3-HR ZONAL FFG VALUES ARE
GENERALLY IN THE 2.4-3.1 INCH RANGE AT THIS TIME...WHICH ARE HIGH
FOR MID TO LATE MAY.

DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
BASIN AVERAGE QPF WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE THIS WEEK. THE BEST
THREAT FOR SEEING SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD /TUE NIGHT THRU THU/. THE
NERFC QPF WAS USED PRIOR TO THURSDAY WITH THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS FROM
THE CAPITAL REGION AND MOHAWK VALLEY NORTHWARD WITH ONE TO TWO INCHES
POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/WASULA

000
FXUS61 KOKX 210445
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1245 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA WILL SINK SOUTH CLOSER TO THE AREA
LATER TODAY...THEN LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA UNTIL A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
BROKEN TO SCATTERED STRATUS REMAINS OVER LONG ISLAND FROM NEAR
ISLIP AND EAST. FOG BANK SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND STILL EXPECTED TO
EXPAND NORTHWARD TONIGHT. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE DENSE FOG ADVY
ALTHOUGH DELAYED DENSE FOG IN FORECAST PER OBS/ SAT IMAGERY.
DO NOT EXPECT MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPS OVERNIGHT FROM CURRENT
READINGS...MAINLY LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH ON TUE AS RIDGE PREVAILS
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF UPSTREAM TROUGH...THEN DROP S INTO
SOUTHERN CT AND PERHAPS ERN LONG ISLAND TUE NIGHT. THE FRONT
SHOULD BE PRECEDED BY DIURNAL CONVECTION MAINLY INLAND LATE TUE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...THEN A GENERAL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND ISOLD THUNDER LATER TUE NIGHT.

TUE SHOULD FEATURE MORE SUNSHINE THAN TODAY AFTER MORNING FOG
BURNS OFF...AND WITH ARE MORE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 80S INLAND AND ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF WRN
LONG ISLAND...AND 70S IN COASTAL CT AND THE REST OF LONG ISLAND.

LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD REDEVELOP TUE NIGHT...MAINLY LATER AT
NIGHT AS IT WILL TAKE BLYR LONGER TO COOL DOWN CLOSER TO
DEW POINTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ABOUT THE MAIN FEATURES OF THE
WEEK. LONG TERM STARTS OUT WITH UPPER RIDING OVER THE AREA WITH
A MIDWEST TROUGH BEGINNING TO PHASE WITH A CANADIAN TROUGH. A WARM
FRONT WILL BE TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY...EXTENDING FROM
A LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE MIDWEST.

A WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW SETS UP BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...ALLOWING TEMPS
ON WEDNESDAY TO WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. THERE IS A WIDE RANGE
OF HIGH TEMP VALUES ON WED...NAM 2M TEMPS HAS HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S
OUT WEST...WHICH COULD POSSIBLY BE DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN CLOUD
COVER. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER MET...NOT AS WARM AS THE
NAM...WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S. LOWS
WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

ALSO ON WEDNESDAY...WITH THE MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW NEAR THE WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. ML AND SFC CAPE WEST
OF NYC WILL BE REACHING ABOVE 1000 J/KG IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH
DECENT LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. EVEN WITH THE FRONT NEARBY...LIFT MAY
NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO GENERATE ANY WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN WITH PW ABOVE
1.5 INCHES. ONLY HAVE CHANCE POPS IN WED AS THERE IS SOME
DISCREPANCY ON THE TIMING OF THE PRECIP APPROACHING THE AREA AND THE
COVERAGE OF IT.

DEEP TROUGH THEN DEVELOPS OVER THE MIDWEST ON THURSDAY AND TRACKS
EAST WITH THE ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NE INTO CANADA AND
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT SOUTH OF IT. COLD FRONT APPROACHES THURSDAY
EVENING WITH A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING AHEAD OF IT...ONCE
AGAIN TRIGGERING SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. INSTABILITY WILL BE
SLIGHTLY LESS THAT WED BUT BETTER LIFT WILL BE EVIDENT. STILL NOT
EXPECTING ANYTHING SEVERE BUT MAY SEE STRONG STORMS THAT WED. DO
HAVE LIKELY POPS IN FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF THE TIMING OF THE RAINFALL. TEMPS WILL BE
COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY...A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THE TROUGH MOVES EAST AND RAIN ENDS WEST TO EAST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE AND WINDS SHIFTING TO THE
NORTHWEST. MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND WILL BE DRY WITH TEMPS RIGHT AT
NORMAL. HIGHS WILL WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FRI-MON.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WARM...MOIST AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT...RESULTING IN
WIDESPREAD FOG/STRATUS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

FOG BEGINNING TO DEVELOP WITH PATCHY MVFR VSBYS. GOING THROUGH THE
EVENING...FOG SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND THICKEN. WITH VERY
WARM AND HUMID AIR PUSHING NORTH FROM OFF THE OCEAN...WILL EXPECT
WIDESPREAD FOG TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 06Z-07Z. DELAYED ONSET OF
WIDESPREAD FOG BY A COUPLE OF HOURS...AS WIDESPREAD FOG IS SLOW TO
DEVELOP.

CONDS GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR BY MIDDAY TUESDAY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUE NGT...BECOMING IFR WITH FOG AND STRATUS.
.WED-FRI...SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS. AT NIGHT...IFR POSSIBLE
WITH STRATUS/FOG.
.SAT...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS REMAIN BELOW 5 FT...SO HAVE CANCELLED SCA FOR HAZ SEAS.

DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED AND ADVISORY REMAINS THROUGH THE MORNING.
THE DENSE FOG COULD LAST ON THE OCEAN INTO TUE NIGHT OR WED
MORNING.

SEAS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ON WED VIA A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT. SEAS COULD BE ABOVE 5 FT BY WED
AFTERNOON...WITH 25 KT WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN WATERS BY
WED EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS LATE THU NIGHT...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE ON FRI. WINDS COULD BE
BELOW SCA CRITERIA BY EARLY FRI MORNING...WITH SEAS REMAINING
ABOVE 5 FT THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON THE
TIMING OF THE COLD FROPA AND THE INCREASE OF WINDS ON WED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLD TO WIDELY SCT SHOWERS OR TSTMS LATE IN THE DAY TUE...MAINLY
INLAND. IMPACTS WILL BE MINIMAL.

SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS WED-THU WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...WITH THE BEST CHANCES NORTH/WEST OF NYC. TOTAL BASIN
AVG QPF FOR WED-THU COULD BE 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMTS IN TSTMS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CTZ009>012.
NY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ071-
     078>081-177-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-
     345-350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/LN
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/PW
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...LN
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...GOODMAN/LN/PW
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/LN

000
FXUS61 KOKX 210345
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1145 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA WILL SINK SOUTH CLOSER TO THE AREA
ON TUESDAY...THEN LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA UNTIL A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
BROKEN TO SCATTERED STRATUS REMAINS OVER LONG ISLAND FROM NEAR
ISLIP AND EAST. FOG BANK SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND STILL EXPECTED TO
EXPAND NORTHWARD TONIGHT. CONTINUE WITH THE DENSE FOG ADVY
BEGINNING AT MIDNIGHT FOR SAME AREAS AS LAST NIGHT. DEW POINTS
REMAIN IN THE LOWER 60S AND WITH ONSHORE FLOW TEMPERATURE REMAIN
IN THE MID 60S.

LOWS SHOULD BE TIED CLOSELY TO JUICY MID AFTN DEW POINTS IN MOST
PLACES...MOSTLY LOWER AND MID 60S...EXCEPT MID/UPPER 60S IN NYC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH ON TUE AS RIDGE PREVAILS
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF UPSTREAM TROUGH...THEN DROP S INTO
SOUTHERN CT AND PERHAPS ERN LONG ISLAND TUE NIGHT. THE FRONT
SHOULD BE PRECEDED BY DIURNAL CONVECTION MAINLY INLAND LATE TUE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...THEN A GENERAL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND ISOLD THUNDER LATER TUE NIGHT.

TUE SHOULD FEATURE MORE SUNSHINE THAN TODAY AFTER MORNING FOG
BURNS OFF...AND WITH ARE MORE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 80S INLAND AND ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF WRN
LONG ISLAND...AND 70S IN COASTAL CT AND THE REST OF LONG ISLAND.

LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD REDEVELOP TUE NIGHT...MAINLY LATER AT
NIGHT AS IT WILL TAKE BLYR LONGER TO COOL DOWN CLOSER TO
DEW POINTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ABOUT THE MAIN FEATURES OF THE
WEEK. LONG TERM STARTS OUT WITH UPPER RIDING OVER THE AREA WITH
A MIDWEST TROUGH BEGINNING TO PHASE WITH A CANADIAN TROUGH. A WARM
FRONT WILL BE TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY...EXTENDING FROM
A LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE MIDWEST.

A WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW SETS UP BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...ALLOWING TEMPS
ON WEDNESDAY TO WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. THERE IS A WIDE RANGE
OF HIGH TEMP VALUES ON WED...NAM 2M TEMPS HAS HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S
OUT WEST...WHICH COULD POSSIBLY BE DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN CLOUD
COVER. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER MET...NOT AS WARM AS THE
NAM...WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S. LOWS
WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

ALSO ON WEDNESDAY...WITH THE MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW NEAR THE WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. ML AND SFC CAPE WEST
OF NYC WILL BE REACHING ABOVE 1000 J/KG IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH
DECENT LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. EVEN WITH THE FRONT NEARBY...LIFT MAY
NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO GENERATE ANY WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN WITH PW ABOVE
1.5 INCHES. ONLY HAVE CHANCE POPS IN WED AS THERE IS SOME
DISCREPANCY ON THE TIMING OF THE PRECIP APPROACHING THE AREA AND THE
COVERAGE OF IT.

DEEP TROUGH THEN DEVELOPS OVER THE MIDWEST ON THURSDAY AND TRACKS
EAST WITH THE ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NE INTO CANADA AND
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT SOUTH OF IT. COLD FRONT APPROACHES THURSDAY
EVENING WITH A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING AHEAD OF IT...ONCE
AGAIN TRIGGERING SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. INSTABILITY WILL BE
SLIGHTLY LESS THAT WED BUT BETTER LIFT WILL BE EVIDENT. STILL NOT
EXPECTING ANYTHING SEVERE BUT MAY SEE STRONG STORMS THAT WED. DO
HAVE LIKELY POPS IN FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF THE TIMING OF THE RAINFALL. TEMPS WILL BE
COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY...A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THE TROUGH MOVES EAST AND RAIN ENDS WEST TO EAST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE AND WINDS SHIFTING TO THE
NORTHWEST. MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND WILL BE DRY WITH TEMPS RIGHT AT
NORMAL. HIGHS WILL WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FRI-MON.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WARM...MOIST AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT...RESULTING IN
WIDESPREAD FOG/STRATUS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

FOG BEGINNING TO DEVELOP WITH PATCHY MVFR VSBYS. GOING THROUGH THE
EVENING...FOG SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND THICKEN. WITH VERY
WARM AND HUMID AIR PUSHING NORTH FROM OFF THE OCEAN...WILL EXPECT
WIDESPREAD FOG TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 06Z-07Z. DELAYED ONSET OF
WIDESPREAD FOG BY A COUPLE OF HOURS...AS WIDESPREAD FOG IS SLOW TO
DEVELOP.

CONDS GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR BY MIDDAY TUESDAY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUE NGT...BECOMING IFR WITH FOG AND STRATUS.
.WED-FRI...SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS. AT NIGHT...IFR POSSIBLE
WITH STRATUS/FOG.
.SAT...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS NOT QUITE AS HIGH AS FORECAST WITH THE 5 FT SEAS MAINLY
ACROSS THE OUTER OCEAN FORECAST WATERS. SUSTAINED SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WIND NOT AS STRONG AND HAVE LOWERED A FEW KNOTS. SWELL
PERIOD IS UNDER 10 SECONDS...AROUND 7...SO HAVE REMOVED SWELL AND
ROUGH CONDITIONS WORDING.

WILL LEAVE ADVISORY AS POSTED WITH THE WESTERN ZONE FROM SANDY
HOOK TO FIRE ISLAND EXPIRING AT MIDNIGHT...AND THROUGH THE NIGHT
EAST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET.

DENSE FOG CONTINUES AND ADVISORY REMAINS THROUGH TUE MORNING. THE
DENSE FOG COULD LAST ON THE OCEAN INTO TUE NIGHT OR WED MORNING.

SEAS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ON WED VIA A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT. SEAS COULD BE ABOVE 5 FT BY WED
AFTERNOON...WITH 25 KT WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN WATERS BY
WED EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS LATE THU NIGHT...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE ON FRI. WINDS COULD BE
BELOW SCA CRITERIA BY EARLY FRI MORNING...WITH SEAS REMAINING
ABOVE 5 FT THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON THE
TIMING OF THE COLD FROPA AND THE INCREASE OF WINDS ON WED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLD TO WIDELY SCT SHOWERS OR TSTMS LATE IN THE DAY TUE...MAINLY
INLAND. IMPACTS WILL BE MINIMAL.

SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS WED-THU WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...WITH THE BEST CHANCES NORTH/WEST OF NYC. TOTAL BASIN
AVG QPF FOR WED-THU COULD BE 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMTS IN TSTMS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR CTZ009>012.
NY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR NYZ071-078>081-
     177-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-
     340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/LN
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...LN
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...GOODMAN/LN
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/LN

000
FXUS61 KALY 210250
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1050 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BECOMING STATIONARY ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK AND NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. A DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
FOCUS SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE HUMID AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER CONTINUES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH MORE CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
THE FCST AREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM AND
HUMID AIR MASS WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE U50S TO M60S OVERNIGHT AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA. THERE IS A LINE OF
CONVECTION OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION MOVING EASTWARD AS A WEAK
WAVE/LOW MOVES ALONG THE BOUNDARY. HAVE ADDED THUNDER TO THE OVERNIGHT
FORECAST. HAVE KEPT PATCHY FOG IN FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. STRATUS
MAY ALSO DEVELOP WITH A LIGHT S/SE FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF ALY.

LOWS TEMPS WILL BE ON THE MILD AND MUGGY NIGHT WITH TEMPS RUNNING
ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE WARMER METMOS TEMPS WERE
ACCEPTED WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO M60S FROM THE MOHAWK
VALLEY...CAPITAL REGION...SARATOGA REGION...BERKSHIRES SOUTH...AND
MID AND U50S TO THE NORTH AND WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...A SFC WAVE MOVES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/WRN GREAT LAKES
REGION...AS THE H500 RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO FLATTEN OVER NY AND NEW
ENGLAND. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT STARTS OUT STATIONARY OVER THE
REGION BEGINS TO LIFT BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. A MID LEVEL SHORT-WAVE APPROACHES IN THE W/NW FLOW
ALOFT. A WEAK SFC WAVE MOVES ALONG THE BOUNDARY FOCUSING SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BETTER INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE FROM
THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE GFS/NAM HINTING AT SOME
SBCAPES IN THE 1000-2000+ J/KG RANGE. THERE IS MUCH LESS
INSTABILITY TO THE NORTH. THE BETTER 0-6 KM BULK /DEEP LAYER/ SHEAR IS
STRONGEST NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...WITH 30 KTS OR LESS TO THE
SOUTH. THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT IDEAL OFF THE NAM WITH
GENERALLY LESS THAN 6 C/KM...WITH THE GFS HINTING AT SOME MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES CLOSER TO 6.5C/KM SOUTH AND WEST OF KALB IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE BEST SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
ARE OUT OF PHASE...BUT IF A CLUSTER OR COMPLEX GETS GOING WITH
THE WAVE THERE COULD BE A FEW STRONGER STORMS WITH AN ISOLATED SVR
THREAT. THE SEE TEXT FROM SPC LOOKS REASONABLE. THE UNFAVORABLE
LAPSE RATES WOULD INDICATE LESS OF A HAIL THREAT...AND A GREATER
ISOLD WIND THREAT WITH PERHAPS SOME BOWING SEGMENTS. WILL MENTION
AN ISOLD THREAT IN THE HWO. THE POPS WERE KEPT IN THE CHC CATEGORY
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME LIKELY VALUES OVER THE SRN DACKS.

THE OTHER INHIBITOR FOR ANY STRONGER TO ISOLD SVR TSRAS WILL BE
THE AMOUNT OF SFC DESTABILIZATION. THE BEST CHC OF SUNSHINE
APPEARS TO BE SOUTH OF CAPITAL REGION WHERE WE HAVE THE HIGHEST
TEMPS FORECASTED WITH H850 TEMPS OF +15C TO +16C. EXPECT HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO M80S FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH IN THE
VALLEYS...AND MID AND U70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE SRN
DACKS...AND SRN GREENS WILL HAVE MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN THE U60S TO
M70S...WITH MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS.

TUE NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND
THEN THE WARM FRONT STARTS TO LIFT FURTHER NORTH AND EAST. THE
BETTER THERMAL GRADIENT...AND THE LOW-LEVEL SFC-H850 BAROCLINIC
ZONE SETS UP OVER THE NRN ZONES WHERE LIKELY POPS WERE KEPT IN FOR
SHOWERS AND A CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY WANES
AFTER 06Z WITH SHOWALTER VALUES IN THE 0 TO -2C RANGE ON THE NAM.
ANOTHER MUGGY NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPS IN THE M50S TO M60S.
THE MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE AGREES THE BEST CHANCE FOR MODERATE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND A HALF AN INCH OR MORE WILL BE OVER THE
NRN HALF OF THE HSA.

WED-WED NIGHT...OUR FCST REFLECTS A LITTLE LULL IN THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN LINE WITH THE LATEST NAM DURING THE
MORNING WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE NRN EXTREME...AND A
SLIGHT CHC OVER THE SRN TWO THIRDS. HENCE...WE ARE BUYING INTO THE
FCST AREA BUSTING BACK INTO THE WARM SECTOR WITH THE BOUNDARY NEAR
NRN NY AND NEW ENGLAND. H850 TEMPS RISE FURTHER TO +15C TO +17C
OVER THE ENTIRE FCST AREA...WITH POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT SW WINDS
SETTING UP IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. FORECASTED SOME MID AND EVEN
SPOTTY U80S IN THE VALLEYS /ESPECIALLY NEAR KPOU/...WITH U70S TO
L80S OVER TH HILLS AND MTNS. ANOTHER WAVE WILL BE APPROACH FROM
THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND A PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL FOCUS SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FOR
THE WRN ZONES. A CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS INCLUDED.
PWATS WILL BE IN THE 1.25-1.67" RANGE...A COUPLE OF STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR SOME HEAVY BURSTS OF RAINFALL. SOME
MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL FOR THE HSA.

OVERNIGHT...THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW CLOSE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
GETS TOWARDS THE FCST AREA. THE LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF HAS THE
FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE NRN
TIER OF THE FCST AREA BTWN 06Z-12Z. THE GFS/NAM ARE SLOWER WITH
THEIR RESPECTIVE MODEL RUNS. FOR NOW...LIKELY POPS HAVE BEEN USED
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND WEST OVERNIGHT...WITH HIGH
CHANCE VALUES TO THE SOUTH. THURSDAY MORNING LOOKS LIKE THE
STICKIEST OF THE STRETCH WITH LOWER TO M60S EVERYWHERE...EXCEPT
SOME U50S OVER THE SRN GREEN MTNS AND SRN DACKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ACTIVE START EXPECTED TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHEAST FROM NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER THURSDAY
MORNING. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS OUR REGION THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND BE SOUTHEAST OF FA FRIDAY MORNING WITH A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG IT. THIS WAVE MAY KEEP
SHOWERS GOING ON FRIDAY. THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND LOOKS DRY BUT
COOL.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS WHICH MAY
TAPER CONVECTION SOME ALTHOUGH THERE ARE QUITE A FEW FAVORABLE
FACTORS FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. MLMUCAPES AHEAD OF THE
FRONT REACH 1500-2500 J/KG WITH 0-3 KM HELICITIES 60-120 M2/S2 WHILE
UPPER LEVEL JET REACHES 75-90 KTS TO THE NORTHWEST OF FA PLACING OUR
AREA IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION. THUS GENERALLY EXPECT MOSTLY
CLOUDY TO CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH ACTIVITY
TAPERING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS ON
THURSDAY TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S.

FRIDAY...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE MORNING WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AS COASTAL LOW MOVES
QUICKLY DEPARTS NORTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY
MORNING. HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND
70.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DROP SOUTHEAST FROM CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE CENTRAL US AND BUILD
EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY SUNNY TO
SUNNY SKIES AND RELATIVELY COOL CONDITIONS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
AND CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY BUT CHILLY NIGHTS. HIGHS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S WITH LOWS IN
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S WITH SOME LOWER 30S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TOUGH FORECAST WITH THE LOCAL AREA EXPECTED TO REMAIN ENTRENCHED
IN THE WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO MID 60S AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE LOCAL
AREA. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.
ALSO STRATUS SHOULD FORM WITH A LIGHT S/SE FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT DUE TO
FOG. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KPOU AND KPSF DUE TO FOG AND
CIGS WITH MVFR AT KALB AND KGFL DUE TO FOG AND CIGS. CONDITIONS
WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TUESDAY MORNING WITH VFR EXPECTED BY
AFTERNOON. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE REGION WILL LIFT BACK
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK SURFACE
WAVE/LOW WILL ALONG THE BOUNDARY FOCUSING SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT...VFR/MVFR. AT KALB AND KGFL -SHRA LIKELY WITH CHC TSRA.
AT KPSF AND KPOU CHC -SHRA/-TSRA.
WED...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA/-TSRA ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTN.
WED NIGHT...VFR/MVFR. AT KGFL AND KALB -SHRA/-TSRA LIKELY. AT
KPSF AND KPOU CHC -SHRA/-TSRA.
THU...MVFR WITH IFR POSSIBLE. -SHRA/-TSRA LIKELY.
THU NIGHT...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA/-TSRA ESPECIALLY IN THE EVNG.
FRI...MAINLY VFR. CHC -SHRA MAINLY IN THE AM.
SAT...VFER. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMING STATIONARY ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  A DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT.  THE HUMID AND UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WITH MORE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
IN THE WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS. INTERMITTENT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO FRIDAY.

THE RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND
LOWER TO 55 TO 70 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON. AN EXCELLENT
RECOVERY WITH RH VALUES INCREASING TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 10 MPH THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...EXCEPT STRONGER GUSTS IN THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO SERVICE AREAS PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5
DAYS. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS OF RAINFALL MAY OCCUR THROUGH
THE MID WEEK IN THE HUMID AIR MASS. 3-HR ZONAL FFG VALUES ARE
GENERALLY IN THE 2.4-3.1 INCH RANGE AT THIS TIME...WHICH ARE HIGH
FOR MID TO LATE MAY.

DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
BASIN AVERAGE QPF WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE THIS WEEK. THE BEST
THREAT FOR SEEING SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD /TUE NIGHT THRU THU/. THE
NERFC QPF WAS USED PRIOR TO THURSDAY WITH THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS FROM
THE CAPITAL REGION AND MOHAWK VALLEY NORTHWARD WITH ONE TO TWO INCHES
POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/WASULA

000
FXUS61 KOKX 210243
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1043 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA WILL SINK SOUTH CLOSER TO THE AREA
ON TUESDAY...THEN LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA UNTIL A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
BROKEN TO SCATTERED STRATUS REMAINS OVER LONG ISLAND FROM NEAR
ISLIP AND EAST. FOG BANK SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND STILL EXPECTED TO
EXPAND NORTHWARD TONIGHT. CONTINUE WITH THE DENSE FOG ADVY
BEGINNING AT MIDNIGHT FOR SAME AREAS AS LAST NIGHT. DEW POINTS
REMAIN IN THE LOWER 60S AND WITH ONSHORE FLOW TEMPERATURE REMAIN
IN THE MID 60S.

LOWS SHOULD BE TIED CLOSELY TO JUICY MID AFTN DEW POINTS IN MOST
PLACES...MOSTLY LOWER AND MID 60S...EXCEPT MID/UPPER 60S IN NYC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH ON TUE AS RIDGE PREVAILS
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF UPSTREAM TROUGH...THEN DROP S INTO
SOUTHERN CT AND PERHAPS ERN LONG ISLAND TUE NIGHT. THE FRONT
SHOULD BE PRECEDED BY DIURNAL CONVECTION MAINLY INLAND LATE TUE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...THEN A GENERAL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND ISOLD THUNDER LATER TUE NIGHT.

TUE SHOULD FEATURE MORE SUNSHINE THAN TODAY AFTER MORNING FOG
BURNS OFF...AND WITH ARE MORE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 80S INLAND AND ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF WRN
LONG ISLAND...AND 70S IN COASTAL CT AND THE REST OF LONG ISLAND.

LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD REDEVELOP TUE NIGHT...MAINLY LATER AT
NIGHT AS IT WILL TAKE BLYR LONGER TO COOL DOWN CLOSER TO
DEW POINTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ABOUT THE MAIN FEATURES OF THE
WEEK. LONG TERM STARTS OUT WITH UPPER RIDING OVER THE AREA WITH
A MIDWEST TROUGH BEGINNING TO PHASE WITH A CANADIAN TROUGH. A WARM
FRONT WILL BE TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY...EXTENDING FROM
A LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE MIDWEST.

A WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW SETS UP BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...ALLOWING TEMPS
ON WEDNESDAY TO WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. THERE IS A WIDE RANGE
OF HIGH TEMP VALUES ON WED...NAM 2M TEMPS HAS HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S
OUT WEST...WHICH COULD POSSIBLY BE DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN CLOUD
COVER. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER MET...NOT AS WARM AS THE
NAM...WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S. LOWS
WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

ALSO ON WEDNESDAY...WITH THE MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW NEAR THE WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. ML AND SFC CAPE WEST
OF NYC WILL BE REACHING ABOVE 1000 J/KG IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH
DECENT LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. EVEN WITH THE FRONT NEARBY...LIFT MAY
NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO GENERATE ANY WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN WITH PW ABOVE
1.5 INCHES. ONLY HAVE CHANCE POPS IN WED AS THERE IS SOME
DISCREPANCY ON THE TIMING OF THE PRECIP APPROACHING THE AREA AND THE
COVERAGE OF IT.

DEEP TROUGH THEN DEVELOPS OVER THE MIDWEST ON THURSDAY AND TRACKS
EAST WITH THE ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NE INTO CANADA AND
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT SOUTH OF IT. COLD FRONT APPROACHES THURSDAY
EVENING WITH A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING AHEAD OF IT...ONCE
AGAIN TRIGGERING SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. INSTABILITY WILL BE
SLIGHTLY LESS THAT WED BUT BETTER LIFT WILL BE EVIDENT. STILL NOT
EXPECTING ANYTHING SEVERE BUT MAY SEE STRONG STORMS THAT WED. DO
HAVE LIKELY POPS IN FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF THE TIMING OF THE RAINFALL. TEMPS WILL BE
COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY...A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THE TROUGH MOVES EAST AND RAIN ENDS WEST TO EAST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE AND WINDS SHIFTING TO THE
NORTHWEST. MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND WILL BE DRY WITH TEMPS RIGHT AT
NORMAL. HIGHS WILL WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FRI-MON.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WARM...MOIST AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT...RESULTING IN
WIDESPREAD FOG/STRATUS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

FOG BEGINNING TO DEVELOP WITH PATCHY MVFR VSBYS. GOING THROUGH THE
EVENING...FOG SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND THICKEN. WITH VERY
WARM AND HUMID AIR PUSHING NORTH FROM OFF THE OCEAN...WILL EXPECT
WIDESPREAD FOG TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 04Z-05Z.

CONDS GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR BY MIDDAY TUESDAY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUE NGT...BECOMING IFR WITH FOG AND STRATUS.
.WED-FRI...SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS. AT NIGHT...IFR POSSIBLE
WITH STRATUS/FOG.
.SAT...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS NOT QUITE AS HIGH AS FORECAST WITH THE 5 FT SEAS MAINLY
ACROSS THE OUTER OCEAN FORECAST WATERS. SUSTAINED SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WIND NOT AS STRONG AND HAVE LOWERED A FEW KNOTS. SWELL
PERIOD IS UNDER 10 SECONDS...AROUND 7...SO HAVE REMOVED SWELL AND
ROUGH CONDITIONS WORDING.

WILL LEAVE ADVISORY AS POSTED WITH THE WESTERN ZONE FROM SANDY
HOOK TO FIRE ISLAND EXPIRING AT MIDNIGHT...AND THROUGH THE NIGHT
EAST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET.

DENSE FOG CONTINUES AND ADVISORY REMAINS THROUGH TUE MORNING. THE
DENSE FOG COULD LAST ON THE OCEAN INTO TUE NIGHT OR WED MORNING.

SEAS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ON WED VIA A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT. SEAS COULD BE ABOVE 5 FT BY WED
AFTERNOON...WITH 25 KT WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN WATERS BY
WED EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS LATE THU NIGHT...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE ON FRI. WINDS COULD BE
BELOW SCA CRITERIA BY EARLY FRI MORNING...WITH SEAS REMAINING
ABOVE 5 FT THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON THE
TIMING OF THE COLD FROPA AND THE INCREASE OF WINDS ON WED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLD TO WIDELY SCT SHOWERS OR TSTMS LATE IN THE DAY TUE...MAINLY
INLAND. IMPACTS WILL BE MINIMAL.

SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS WED-THU WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...WITH THE BEST CHANCES NORTH/WEST OF NYC. TOTAL BASIN
AVG QPF FOR WED-THU COULD BE 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMTS IN TSTMS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR CTZ009>012.
NY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR NYZ071-078>081-
     177-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-
     340-345-350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR ANZ350-353.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT
     TONIGHT FOR ANZ355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/LN
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...LN
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...GOODMAN/LN
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/LN

000
FXUS61 KBOX 210223
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1023 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY RESULTING IN BRIEFLY COOLER WEATHER ACROSS
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN NEW
ENE. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS RETURN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR
MASS IS EXPECTED FOR THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
1015 PM UPDATE...FINALLY GOT A STRONG ENOUGH UPDRAFT IN AN
ISOLATED CONVECTIVE CLUSTER EAST OF CHATHAM MA TO PRODUCE A FEW
LIGHTNING STROKES. THIS CELL WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS. ELSEWHERE ACROSS OUR REGION...THINKING ISOLATED
SHOWERS WITH AREAS OF FOG SHOULD COVER THE REST OF TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE...JUST TWEAKED FORECAST TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO
BRING THEM BACK IN LINE WITH OBSERVED TRENDS. DENSE FOG ADVISORY
CONTINUES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE BACK S AS A BACKDOOR LATE
TONIGHT AND SHOULD MOVE INTO NE ZONES BY DAYBREAK. CANT RULE OUT A
FEW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY N ZONES BUT MOST OF THE NIGHT SHOULD BE
DRY. CONTINUED SW FLOW NEAR THE S COAST WILL KEEP ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP AGAIN
TONIGHT. FOG BANK SITTING OVER ACK TO NEAR BID AND THIS WILL MOVE
ONSHORE TONIGHT SO WE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY ALONG THE S
COAST. THE FOG MAY SPREAD FURTHER N OVERNIGHT BUT HIGHEST
PROBABILITY OF VSBYS 1/4SM OR LESS WILL BE ALONG THE S COAST.
RELATIVELY MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS HOLDING IN UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...
POSITION OF THE BACKDOOR FRONT WILL DETERMINE TEMPERATURE
VARIABILITY ACROSS SNE AND WHERE BEST CHC OF CONVECTION WILL BE.
WE FOLLOWED NAM SOLUTION WHICH TYPICALLY HANDLES THE LOCATION OF
THESE SHALLOW FRONTS DUE TO ITS HIGHER RESOLUTION. THIS SUGGESTS
FRONT WILL MAKE IT AS FAR WEST AS CENTRAL MA TO RI. LARGE TEMP
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS SNE WITH MAXES RANGING FROM THE 60S E
COASTAL MA THROUGH SE NH...TO THE MID 80S LOWER CT VALLEY.

AIRMASS EXPECTED TO DESTABILIZE ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENG WHICH WILL
REMAIN WEST OF THE BOUNDARY...WITH CAPES INCREASING TO 1000-2000
J/KG. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW VERY FAVORABLE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
APPROACHING 7 C/KM. BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE IN THE COOLER
MORE STABLE AIRMASS TO THE NE WITH THE GRADIENT LYING ACROSS
CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW ENG...BUT MAGNITUDE WILL APPROACH 30 KT
IN THE UNSTABLE AIR. EXPECT SCT TSTMS TO DEVELOP WEST OF THE
BOUNDARY AND CANT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...CLOSER
TO CT VALLEY AND BERKSHIRES WHERE BEST INSTABILITY IS LOCATED.

TUESDAY NIGHT...
THE BACKDOOR FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE BACK NWD AS A WARM FRONT
AND WILL APPROACH NE ZONES TOWARD DAYBREAK. MORE LOW CLOUDS AND
AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST.
STRONG CONVECTION MAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING...OTHERWISE MODELS
ARE SHOWING ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO KEEP THE THREAT OF
A FEW SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED TSTM THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WED-THU
* COOLER...LESS HUMID FOR THE WEEKEND

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM.
THERE ARE SOME TIMING DISCREPANCIES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM
BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS. THE GFS IS ABOUT 12 HOURS SLOWER
WITH MOVING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS
FAIRLY WELL IN LINE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. GENERALLY EXPECTING A
MORE UNSETTLED BUT WARMER PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK...WITH QUIETER BUT COOLER WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES AND INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC WILL BRING A WARM FRONT NORTH
THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY. IN THE WARM
SECTOR...850MB TEMPS UP TO 15-16C WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES
AROUND 80 DEGREES BOTH DAYS. PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE REGION WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND PWATS MORE THAN TWICE THAT OF NORMAL.
ALONG WITH THE ABOVE...THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY THAT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE PEAK HEATING AFTERNOON
HOURS. THE BEST INSTABILITY IS OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA WEDNESDAY AND ANCHORED MORE OVER ALL OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
ON THURSDAY...SO AM EXPECTING THUNDERSTORMS TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD
AND ORGANIZED ON THURSDAY. WITH THE PWATS AS HIGH AS THEY
ARE...EXPECT HEAVY RAIN WITH ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THAT
DEVELOPS.

FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
SOMETIME ON FRIDAY...WITH THE ECMWF BRINGING IT THROUGH THE AREA
BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 6 AM AND THE GFS BRINGING IT THROUGH ABOUT
MIDDAY. THIS IS A CHANGE FROM YESTERDAYS MODEL RUNS WHERE THE GFS
WAS FASTER WITH THE TIMING SO THERES STILL QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING. THIS WILL HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON THE
WEATHER AS MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WARMER...MORE HUMID AIR CAN BE
FOUND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHILE CLEARING SKIES AND COOLER...LESS
HUMID AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT. IF THIS OCCURS DURING THE
EARLY MORNING...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE LOWER BUT THE AREA WILL
SEE MORE SUN...WHILE IF IT DOESN/T OCCUR UNTIL MIDDAY COULD SEE
WARMER HIGHS BUT LESS SUN AND POSSIBLY SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINANT OVER SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND...EXPECT A PLEASANT PERIOD WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

OVERVIEW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE OF
STRATUS AND FOG TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
IFR CONDITIONS EXTENDING SOUTH AND EAST FROM KBID-KFMH-KHYA-KCQX.
STILL EXPECTING THESE IFR CONDITIONS TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE SOUTH COASTS OF RI/MA AS LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MOVE ONSHORE.
EVENTUALLY THE CLOUDS AND FOG WILL SPREAD EVEN FARTHER INLAND
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR IFR CONDITIONS IS ALONG
THE SOUTH COAST.

TUESDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR WEST OF KMHT TO KORH
TO KIJD LINE /CT VALLEY/...LOW CLOUDS/FOG WILL KEEP AREAS EAST OF
THAT LINE IN MVFR/IFR. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE CT VALLEY DURING THE AFTN.

TUESDAY NIGHT...WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR IN STRATUS AND FOG REDEVELOP.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF
THE TERMINAL THROUGH 02Z. EXPECT CIGS/VSBYS TO LOWER TO IFR LATER
TONIGHT. SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR TUE.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TONIGHT
WITH IFR POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...IMPROVING TO VFR AROUND MIDDAY.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
VERY UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH VARIABILITY BETWEEN VFR CONDITIONS AND
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SHRA/TSRA/FOG.

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
FROM WEST TO EAST AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH REGION.

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE NIGHT.

WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THROUGH TUE NIGHT. MAY SEE
BRIEF E/NE GUSTS TO 20 KT LATE TONIGHT OVER NE MA COASTAL WATERS
AS THE BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES THROUGH. EXPECT MOSTLY EASTERLY WINDS
OVER THE EASTERN MA COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TUE NIGHT AND SW WINDS
OVER THE S COASTAL WATERS AS THE FRONT WILL BISECT THE WATERS.
WE FOLLOWED SWAN GUIDANCE FOR SEA FORECAST WHICH IS HANDLING SWELL
BETTER THAN WNAWAVE GUIDANCE. EXPECT MARGINAL SCA SWELL TO 5 FT
OVER THE OPEN S COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT SUBSIDING TUE.

EXPECT AREAS OF DENSE FOG TONIGHT INTO TUE WITH PERSISTENT SW
FLOW...ESPECIALLY OVER THE S COASTAL WATERS.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY...SEAS INCREASE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE
WATERS.  SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS GUST TO NEAR 25 KTS.  SCA WILL BE
NECESSARY FOR SEAS IF NOT WINDS AS WELL. VISIBILITY MAY BE
LIMITED AT TIMES IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THURSDAY...SEAS REMAIN ABOVE 5 FEET AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO
THE MARITIMES AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS GUST TO NEAR 25 KTS. SCA WILL BE NECESSARY
FOR SEAS IF NOT WINDS AS WELL. VISIBILITY MAY BE LIMITED AT TIMES
IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS INCREASE OVERNIGHT
WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

FRIDAY...SEAS BEGIN TO DIMINISH AFTER A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
WATERS AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. WINDS INCREASE
TO 25KTS WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND
THE FRONT.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE WATERS
RESULTING IN SEAS REMAINING BELOW 5 FEET.  WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS
STARTING OUT OF THE NORTH AND THEN VARIABLE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR MAZ020>023.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR MAZ024.
NH...NONE.
RI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR ANZ235-254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR ANZ255-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...BELK/KJC/RLG
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...KJC/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG

000
FXUS61 KOKX 210139
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
939 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA WILL SINK SOUTH CLOSER TO THE AREA
ON TUESDAY...THEN LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA UNTIL A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
BROKEN TO SCATTERED STRATUS REMAINS OVER LONG ISLAND FROM NEAR
ISLIP AND EAST. FOG BANK SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND STILL EXPECTED TO
EXPAND NORTHWARD TONIGHT. CONTINUE WITH THE DENSE FOG ADVY
BEGINNING AT MIDNIGHT FOR SAME AREAS AS LAST NIGHT. DEW POINTS
REMAIN IN THE LOWER 60S AND WITH ONSHORE FLOW TEMPERATURE REMAIN
IN THE MID 60S.

LOWS SHOULD BE TIED CLOSELY TO JUICY MID AFTN DEW POINTS IN MOST
PLACES...MOSTLY LOWER AND MID 60S...EXCEPT MID/UPPER 60S IN NYC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH ON TUE AS RIDGE PREVAILS
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF UPSTREAM TROUGH...THEN DROP S INTO
SOUTHERN CT AND PERHAPS ERN LONG ISLAND TUE NIGHT. THE FRONT
SHOULD BE PRECEDED BY DIURNAL CONVECTION MAINLY INLAND LATE TUE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...THEN A GENERAL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND ISOLD THUNDER LATER TUE NIGHT.

TUE SHOULD FEATURE MORE SUNSHINE THAN TODAY AFTER MORNING FOG
BURNS OFF...AND WITH ARE MORE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 80S INLAND AND ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF WRN
LONG ISLAND...AND 70S IN COASTAL CT AND THE REST OF LONG ISLAND.

LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD REDEVELOP TUE NIGHT...MAINLY LATER AT
NIGHT AS IT WILL TAKE BLYR LONGER TO COOL DOWN CLOSER TO
DEW POINTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ABOUT THE MAIN FEATURES OF THE
WEEK. LONG TERM STARTS OUT WITH UPPER RIDING OVER THE AREA WITH
A MIDWEST TROUGH BEGINNING TO PHASE WITH A CANADIAN TROUGH. A WARM
FRONT WILL BE TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY...EXTENDING FROM
A LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE MIDWEST.

A WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW SETS UP BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...ALLOWING TEMPS
ON WEDNESDAY TO WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. THERE IS A WIDE RANGE
OF HIGH TEMP VALUES ON WED...NAM 2M TEMPS HAS HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S
OUT WEST...WHICH COULD POSSIBLY BE DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN CLOUD
COVER. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER MET...NOT AS WARM AS THE
NAM...WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S. LOWS
WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

ALSO ON WEDNESDAY...WITH THE MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW NEAR THE WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. ML AND SFC CAPE WEST
OF NYC WILL BE REACHING ABOVE 1000 J/KG IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH
DECENT LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. EVEN WITH THE FRONT NEARBY...LIFT MAY
NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO GENERATE ANY WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN WITH PW ABOVE
1.5 INCHES. ONLY HAVE CHANCE POPS IN WED AS THERE IS SOME
DISCREPANCY ON THE TIMING OF THE PRECIP APPROACHING THE AREA AND THE
COVERAGE OF IT.

DEEP TROUGH THEN DEVELOPS OVER THE MIDWEST ON THURSDAY AND TRACKS
EAST WITH THE ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NE INTO CANADA AND
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT SOUTH OF IT. COLD FRONT APPROACHES THURSDAY
EVENING WITH A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING AHEAD OF IT...ONCE
AGAIN TRIGGERING SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. INSTABILITY WILL BE
SLIGHTLY LESS THAT WED BUT BETTER LIFT WILL BE EVIDENT. STILL NOT
EXPECTING ANYTHING SEVERE BUT MAY SEE STRONG STORMS THAT WED. DO
HAVE LIKELY POPS IN FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF THE TIMING OF THE RAINFALL. TEMPS WILL BE
COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY...A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THE TROUGH MOVES EAST AND RAIN ENDS WEST TO EAST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE AND WINDS SHIFTING TO THE
NORTHWEST. MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND WILL BE DRY WITH TEMPS RIGHT AT
NORMAL. HIGHS WILL WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FRI-MON.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WARM...MOIST AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT...RESULTING IN
WIDESPREAD FOG/STRATUS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

CONDS DIMINISHING TO IFR/LIFR AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. FOG BANK
CURRENTLY SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND CONTINUING TO TRACK EAST...BUT WITH
VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR PUSHING NORTH FROM OFF THE OCEAN...WILL
EXPECT FOG TO REDEVELOP BY 04Z.

CONDS GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR BY MIDDAY TUESDAY.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: CONDS GRADUALLY LOWERING TO IFR BY 04Z. VFR
EXPECTED TO RETURN BY 15Z TUESDAY. SW WINDS AROUND 230 DEGREES
TRUE AT 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH AROUND 15Z TUESDAY.

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MONITORING FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS
EVENING...WITH IFR CONDS BY 04Z...AND AS LOW AS VLIFR BY 09Z.
CONDS IMPROVE TO VFR 15-16Z TUESDAY. LIGHT S WINDS...TURNING SW
LATE.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR CONDS DEVELOPING BY 04Z WITH IMPROVEMENT
AFT 15Z. SW WINDS 5-7 KT.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR CONDS DEVELOPING BY 05Z...LOWERING TO
LIFR BY 10Z. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY 15Z. WINDS 5 KT OR LESS THROUGH
13Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR CONDS DEVELOPING BY 05Z...LOWERING TO
LIFR BY 08Z. IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR BY 15Z...THEN TO VFR BY 18Z. WINDS
5 KT OR LESS THROUGH 13Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: OCNL IFR CONDS EARLY...THEN IFR BY 04Z...
THEN TO LIFR BY 06Z. CONDS IMPROVE TO MVFR BY 15Z...THEN TO VFR BY
19Z. SW WINDS 5-7 KT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUE NGT...BECOMING IFR WITH FOG AND STRATUS.
.WED-FRI...SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS. AT NIGHT...IFR POSSIBLE
WITH STRATUS/FOG.
.SAT...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS NOT QUITE AS HIGH AS FORECAST WITH THE 5 FT SEAS MAINLY
ACROSS THE OUTER OCEAN FORECAST WATERS. SUSTAINED SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WIND NOT AS STRONG AND HAVE LOWERED A FEW KNOTS. SWELL
PERIOD IS UNDER 10 SECONDS...AROUND 7...SO HAVE REMOVED SWELL AND
ROUGH CONDITIONS WORDING.

WILL LEAVE ADVISORY AS POSTED WITH THE WESTERN ZONE FROM SANDY
HOOK TO FIRE ISLAND EXPIRING AT MIDNIGHT...AND THROUGH THE NIGHT
EAST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET.

DENSE FOG CONTINUES AND ADVISORY REMAINS THROUGH TUE MORNING. THE
DENSE FOG COULD LAST ON THE OCEAN INTO TUE NIGHT OR WED MORNING.

SEAS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ON WED VIA A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT. SEAS COULD BE ABOVE 5 FT BY WED
AFTERNOON...WITH 25 KT WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN WATERS BY
WED EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS LATE THU NIGHT...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE ON FRI. WINDS COULD BE
BELOW SCA CRITERIA BY EARLY FRI MORNING...WITH SEAS REMAINING
ABOVE 5 FT THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON THE
TIMING OF THE COLD FROPA AND THE INCREASE OF WINDS ON WED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLD TO WIDELY SCT SHOWERS OR TSTMS LATE IN THE DAY TUE...MAINLY
INLAND. IMPACTS WILL BE MINIMAL.

SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS WED-THU WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...WITH THE BEST CHANCES NORTH/WEST OF NYC. TOTAL BASIN
AVG QPF FOR WED-THU COULD BE 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMTS IN TSTMS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR CTZ009>012.
NY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR NYZ071-078>081-
     177-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-
     340-345.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR ANZ350-353.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT
     TONIGHT FOR ANZ355.

&&

$$

000
FXUS61 KALY 210036
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
836 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BECOMING STATIONARY ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK AND NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. A DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
FOCUS SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW NIGHT.
THE HUMID AND UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WITH MORE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK. THE FCST AREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE
U50S TO M60S OVERNIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTHWARD
INTO THE AREA. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. STRATUS MAY ALSO DEVELOP WITH A LIGHT S/SE
FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF ALY.

LOWS TEMPS WILL BE ON THE MILD TONIGHT WITH TEMPS RUNNING ABOUT 10
TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE WARMER METMOS TEMPS WERE ACCEPTED
WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO M60S FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY...CAPITAL
REGION...SARATOGA REGION...BERKSHIRES SOUTH...AND MID AND U50S TO
THE NORTH AND WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...A SFC WAVE MOVES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/WRN GREAT LAKES
REGION...AS THE H500 RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO FLATTEN OVER NY AND NEW
ENGLAND. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT STARTS OUT STATIONARY OVER THE
REGION BEGINS TO LIFT BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. A MID LEVEL SHORT-WAVE APPROACHES IN THE W/NW FLOW
ALOFT. A WEAK SFC WAVE MOVES ALONG THE BOUNDARY FOCUSING SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BETTER INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE FROM
THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE GFS/NAM HINTING AT SOME
SBCAPES IN THE 1000-2000+ J/KG RANGE. THERE IS MUCH LESS
INSTABILITY TO THE NORTH. THE BETTER 0-6 KM BULK /DEEP LAYER/ SHEAR IS
STRONGEST NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...WITH 30 KTS OR LESS TO THE
SOUTH. THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT IDEAL OFF THE NAM WITH
GENERALLY LESS THAN 6 C/KM...WITH THE GFS HINTING AT SOME MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES CLOSER TO 6.5C/KM SOUTH AND WEST OF KALB IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE BEST SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
ARE OUT OF PHASE...BUT IF A CLUSTER OR COMPLEX GETS GOING WITH
THE WAVE THERE COULD BE A FEW STRONGER STORMS WITH AN ISOLATED SVR
THREAT. THE SEE TEXT FROM SPC LOOKS REASONABLE. THE UNFAVORABLE
LAPSE RATES WOULD INDICATE LESS OF A HAIL THREAT...AND A GREATER
ISOLD WIND THREAT WITH PERHAPS SOME BOWING SEGMENTS. WILL MENTION
AN ISOLD THREAT IN THE HWO. THE POPS WERE KEPT IN THE CHC CATEGORY
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME LIKELY VALUES OVER THE SRN DACKS.

THE OTHER INHIBITOR FOR ANY STRONGER TO ISOLD SVR TSRAS WILL BE
THE AMOUNT OF SFC DESTABILIZATION. THE BEST CHC OF SUNSHINE
APPEARS TO BE SOUTH OF CAPITAL REGION WHERE WE HAVE THE HIGHEST
TEMPS FORECASTED WITH H850 TEMPS OF +15C TO +16C. EXPECT HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO M80S FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH IN THE
VALLEYS...AND MID AND U70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE SRN
DACKS...AND SRN GREENS WILL HAVE MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN THE U60S TO
M70S...WITH MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS.

TUE NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND
THEN THE WARM FRONT STARTS TO LIFT FURTHER NORTH AND EAST. THE
BETTER THERMAL GRADIENT...AND THE LOW-LEVEL SFC-H850 BAROCLINIC
ZONE SETS UP OVER THE NRN ZONES WHERE LIKELY POPS WERE KEPT IN FOR
SHOWERS AND A CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY WANES
AFTER 06Z WITH SHOWALTER VALUES IN THE 0 TO -2C RANGE ON THE NAM.
ANOTHER MUGGY NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPS IN THE M50S TO M60S.
THE MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE AGREES THE BEST CHANCE FOR MODERATE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND A HALF AN INCH OR MORE WILL BE OVER THE
NRN HALF OF THE HSA.

WED-WED NIGHT...OUR FCST REFLECTS A LITTLE LULL IN THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN LINE WITH THE LATEST NAM DURING THE
MORNING WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE NRN EXTREME...AND A
SLIGHT CHC OVER THE SRN TWO THIRDS. HENCE...WE ARE BUYING INTO THE
FCST AREA BUSTING BACK INTO THE WARM SECTOR WITH THE BOUNDARY NEAR
NRN NY AND NEW ENGLAND. H850 TEMPS RISE FURTHER TO +15C TO +17C
OVER THE ENTIRE FCST AREA...WITH POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT SW WINDS
SETTING UP IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. FORECASTED SOME MID AND EVEN
SPOTTY U80S IN THE VALLEYS /ESPECIALLY NEAR KPOU/...WITH U70S TO
L80S OVER TH HILLS AND MTNS. ANOTHER WAVE WILL BE APPROACH FROM
THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND A PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL FOCUS SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FOR
THE WRN ZONES. A CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS INCLUDED.
PWATS WILL BE IN THE 1.25-1.67" RANGE...A COUPLE OF STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR SOME HEAVY BURSTS OF RAINFALL. SOME
MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL FOR THE HSA.

OVERNIGHT...THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW CLOSE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
GETS TOWARDS THE FCST AREA. THE LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF HAS THE
FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE NRN
TIER OF THE FCST AREA BTWN 06Z-12Z. THE GFS/NAM ARE SLOWER WITH
THEIR RESPECTIVE MODEL RUNS. FOR NOW...LIKELY POPS HAVE BEEN USED
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND WEST OVERNIGHT...WITH HIGH
CHANCE VALUES TO THE SOUTH. THURSDAY MORNING LOOKS LIKE THE
STICKIEST OF THE STRETCH WITH LOWER TO M60S EVERYWHERE...EXCEPT
SOME U50S OVER THE SRN GREEN MTNS AND SRN DACKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ACTIVE START EXPECTED TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHEAST FROM NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER THURSDAY
MORNING. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS OUR REGION THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND BE SOUTHEAST OF FA FRIDAY MORNING WITH A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG IT. THIS WAVE MAY KEEP
SHOWERS GOING ON FRIDAY. THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND LOOKS DRY BUT
COOL.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS WHICH MAY
TAPER CONVECTION SOME ALTHOUGH THERE ARE QUITE A FEW FAVORABLE
FACTORS FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. MLMUCAPES AHEAD OF THE
FRONT REACH 1500-2500 J/KG WITH 0-3 KM HELICITIES 60-120 M2/S2 WHILE
UPPER LEVEL JET REACHES 75-90 KTS TO THE NORTHWEST OF FA PLACING OUR
AREA IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION. THUS GENERALLY EXPECT MOSTLY
CLOUDY TO CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH ACTIVITY
TAPERING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS ON
THURSDAY TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S.

FRIDAY...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE MORNING WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AS COASTAL LOW MOVES
QUICKLY DEPARTS NORTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY
MORNING. HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND
70.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DROP SOUTHEAST FROM CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE CENTRAL US AND BUILD
EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY SUNNY TO
SUNNY SKIES AND RELATIVELY COOL CONDITIONS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
AND CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY BUT CHILLY NIGHTS. HIGHS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S WITH LOWS IN
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S WITH SOME LOWER 30S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TOUGH FORECAST WITH THE LOCAL AREA EXPECTED TO REMAIN ENTRENCHED
IN THE WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO MID 60S AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE LOCAL
AREA. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.
ALSO STRATUS SHOULD FORM WITH A LIGHT S/SE FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT DUE TO
FOG. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KPOU AND KPSF DUE TO FOG AND
CIGS WITH MVFR AT KALB AND KGFL DUE TO FOG AND CIGS. CONDITIONS
WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TUESDAY MORNING WITH VFR EXPECTED BY
AFTERNOON. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE REGION WILL LIFT BACK
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK SURFACE
WAVE/LOW WILL ALONG THE BOUNDARY FOCUSING SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT...VFR/MVFR. AT KALB AND KGFL -SHRA LIKELY WITH CHC TSRA.
AT KPSF AND KPOU CHC -SHRA/-TSRA.
WED...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA/-TSRA ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTN.
WED NIGHT...VFR/MVFR. AT KGFL AND KALB -SHRA/-TSRA LIKELY. AT
KPSF AND KPOU CHC -SHRA/-TSRA.
THU...MVFR WITH IFR POSSIBLE. -SHRA/-TSRA LIKELY.
THU NIGHT...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA/-TSRA ESPECIALLY IN THE EVNG.
FRI...MAINLY VFR. CHC -SHRA MAINLY IN THE AM.
SAT...VFER. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMING STATIONARY ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  A DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT.  THE HUMID AND UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WITH MORE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
IN THE WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS. INTERMITTENT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO FRIDAY.

THE RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND
LOWER TO 55 TO 70 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON. AN EXCELLENT
RECOVERY WITH RH VALUES INCREASING TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 10 MPH THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...EXCEPT STRONGER GUSTS IN THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO SERVICE AREAS PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5
DAYS. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS OF RAINFALL MAY OCCUR THROUGH
THE MID WEEK IN THE HUMID AIR MASS. 3-HR ZONAL FFG VALUES ARE
GENERALLY IN THE 2.4-3.1 INCH RANGE AT THIS TIME...WHICH ARE HIGH
FOR MID TO LATE MAY.

DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
BASIN AVERAGE QPF WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE THIS WEEK. THE BEST
THREAT FOR SEEING SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD /TUE NIGHT THRU THU/. THE
NERFC QPF WAS USED PRIOR TO THURSDAY WITH THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS FROM
THE CAPITAL REGION AND MOHAWK VALLEY NORTHWARD WITH ONE TO TWO INCHES
POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/WASULA

000
FXUS61 KOKX 210015
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
815 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA WILL SINK SOUTH CLOSER TO THE AREA
ON TUESDAY...THEN LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA UNTIL A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
STRATUS BEGINNING TO MOVE ONSHORE ACROSS SOUTHERN LONG ISLAND WITH
BROKEN CEILINGS AT ISLIP AT 23Z. FOG BANK SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND
SHOULD EXPAND N-WARD INTO COASTAL SECTIONS TONIGHT. CONTINUE WITH
THE DENSE FOG ADVY BEGINNING AT MIDNIGHT FOR SAME AREAS AS LAST
NIGHT. DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE LOWER 60S AND WITH ONSHORE FLOW
TEMPERATURE REMAIN IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES
AND DEW POINTS FOR CURRENT TRENDS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

AREA FROM ABOUT NEW YORK CITY AND EAST STABLE WITH 500 OR LESS
J/KG OF CAPE ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY INTO NORTHEAST NEW
JERSEY. ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO STABILIZE AND WITH NO TRIGGERS
IN PLACE HAVE REMOVED POPS.

LOWS SHOULD BE TIED CLOSELY TO JUICY MID AFTN DEW POINTS IN MOST
PLACES...MOSTLY LOWER AND MID 60S...EXCEPT MID/UPPER 60S IN NYC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH ON TUE AS RIDGE PREVAILS
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF UPSTREAM TROUGH...THEN DROP S INTO
SOUTHERN CT AND PERHAPS ERN LONG ISLAND TUE NIGHT. THE FRONT
SHOULD BE PRECEDED BY DIURNAL CONVECTION MAINLY INLAND LATE TUE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...THEN A GENERAL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND ISOLD THUNDER LATER TUE NIGHT.

TUE SHOULD FEATURE MORE SUNSHINE THAN TODAY AFTER MORNING FOG
BURNS OFF...AND WITH ARE MORE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 80S INLAND AND ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF WRN
LONG ISLAND...AND 70S IN COASTAL CT AND THE REST OF LONG ISLAND.

LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD REDEVELOP TUE NIGHT...MAINLY LATER AT
NIGHT AS IT WILL TAKE BLYR LONGER TO COOL DOWN CLOSER TO
DEW POINTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ABOUT THE MAIN FEATURES OF THE
WEEK. LONG TERM STARTS OUT WITH UPPER RIDING OVER THE AREA WITH
A MIDWEST TROUGH BEGINNING TO PHASE WITH A CANADIAN TROUGH. A WARM
FRONT WILL BE TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY...EXTENDING FROM
A LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE MIDWEST.

A WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW SETS UP BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...ALLOWING TEMPS
ON WEDNESDAY TO WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. THERE IS A WIDE RANGE
OF HIGH TEMP VALUES ON WED...NAM 2M TEMPS HAS HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S
OUT WEST...WHICH COULD POSSIBLY BE DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN CLOUD
COVER. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER MET...NOT AS WARM AS THE
NAM...WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S. LOWS
WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

ALSO ON WEDNESDAY...WITH THE MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW NEAR THE WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. ML AND SFC CAPE WEST
OF NYC WILL BE REACHING ABOVE 1000 J/KG IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH
DECENT LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. EVEN WITH THE FRONT NEARBY...LIFT MAY
NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO GENERATE ANY WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN WITH PW ABOVE
1.5 INCHES. ONLY HAVE CHANCE POPS IN WED AS THERE IS SOME
DISCREPANCY ON THE TIMING OF THE PRECIP APPROACHING THE AREA AND THE
COVERAGE OF IT.

DEEP TROUGH THEN DEVELOPS OVER THE MIDWEST ON THURSDAY AND TRACKS
EAST WITH THE ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NE INTO CANADA AND
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT SOUTH OF IT. COLD FRONT APPROACHES THURSDAY
EVENING WITH A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING AHEAD OF IT...ONCE
AGAIN TRIGGERING SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. INSTABILITY WILL BE
SLIGHTLY LESS THAT WED BUT BETTER LIFT WILL BE EVIDENT. STILL NOT
EXPECTING ANYTHING SEVERE BUT MAY SEE STRONG STORMS THAT WED. DO
HAVE LIKELY POPS IN FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF THE TIMING OF THE RAINFALL. TEMPS WILL BE
COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY...A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THE TROUGH MOVES EAST AND RAIN ENDS WEST TO EAST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE AND WINDS SHIFTING TO THE
NORTHWEST. MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND WILL BE DRY WITH TEMPS RIGHT AT
NORMAL. HIGHS WILL WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FRI-MON.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WARM...MOIST AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT...RESULTING IN
WIDESPREAD FOG/STRATUS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

CONDS DIMINISHING TO IFR/LIFR AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. FOG BANK
CURRENTLY SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND CONTINUING TO TRACK EAST...BUT WITH
VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR PUSHING NORTH FROM OFF THE OCEAN...WILL
EXPECT FOG TO REDEVELOP BY 04Z.

CONDS GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR BY MIDDAY TUESDAY.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: CONDS GRADUALLY LOWERING TO IFR BY 04Z. VFR
EXPECTED TO RETURN BY 15Z TUESDAY. SW WINDS AROUND 230 DEGREES
TRUE AT 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH AROUND 15Z TUESDAY.

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MONITORING FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS
EVENING...WITH IFR CONDS BY 04Z...AND AS LOW AS VLIFR BY 09Z.
CONDS IMPROVE TO VFR 15-16Z TUESDAY. LIGHT S WINDS...TURNING SW
LATE.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR CONDS DEVELOPING BY 04Z WITH IMPROVEMENT
AFT 15Z. SW WINDS 5-7 KT.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR CONDS DEVELOPING BY 05Z...LOWERING TO
LIFR BY 10Z. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY 15Z. WINDS 5 KT OR LESS THROUGH
13Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR CONDS DEVELOPING BY 05Z...LOWERING TO
LIFR BY 08Z. IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR BY 15Z...THEN TO VFR BY 18Z. WINDS
5 KT OR LESS THROUGH 13Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: OCNL IFR CONDS EARLY...THEN IFR BY 04Z...
THEN TO LIFR BY 06Z. CONDS IMPROVE TO MVFR BY 15Z...THEN TO VFR BY
19Z. SW WINDS 5-7 KT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUE NGT...BECOMING IFR WITH FOG AND STRATUS.
.WED-FRI...SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS. AT NIGHT...IFR POSSIBLE
WITH STRATUS/FOG.
.SAT...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS ON TRACK. NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

OCEAN SEAS HAVE FINALLY BEGUN TO BUILD CLOSE TO 5 FT...SO SCA FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS HAS BEEN EXTENDED INTO THE EVENING W OF FIRE ISLAND
INLET...AND THROUGH THE NIGHT E TO MONTAUK. DENSE FOG CONTINUES
AND HAVE RE-ISSUED ADVY THROUGH TUE MORNING. THE DENSE FOG COULD
LAST ON THE OCEAN INTO TUE NIGHT OR WED MORNING.

SEAS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ON WED VIA A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT. SEAS COULD BE ABOVE 5 FT BY WED
AFTERNOON...WITH 25 KT WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN WATERS BY
WED EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS LATE THU NIGHT...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE ON FRI. WINDS COULD BE
BELOW SCA CRITERIA BY EARLY FRI MORNING...WITH SEAS REMAINING
ABOVE 5 FT THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON THE
TIMING OF THE COLD FROPA AND THE INCREASE OF WINDS ON WED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLD TO WIDELY SCT SHOWERS OR TSTMS LATE IN THE DAY TUE...MAINLY
INLAND. IMPACTS WILL BE MINIMAL.

SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS WED-THU WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...WITH THE BEST CHANCES NORTH/WEST OF NYC. TOTAL BASIN
AVG QPF FOR WED-THU COULD BE 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMTS IN TSTMS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR CTZ009>012.
NY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR NYZ071-078>081-177-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-
     340-345.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR ANZ350-353.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT
     TONIGHT FOR ANZ355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/LN
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...LN
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...GOODMAN/LN
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/LN

000
FXUS61 KBOX 202325
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
725 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY RESULTING IN BRIEFLY COOLER WEATHER ACROSS
EASTERN NEW ENG AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN NEW ENG.
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS RETURN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR
MASS IS EXPECTED FOR THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
730 PM UPDATE...SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE SEA BREEZE JUST
TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST OF BOSTON. EXPECT THESE TO DIMINISH OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS TEMPERATURES COOL AFTER SUNSET. HAVE UPDATED
THE POPS AND THE TEMPERATURES TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE TRENDS.
OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

TONIGHT...WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE BACK S AS A BACKDOOR LATE
TONIGHT AND SHOULD MOVE INTO NE ZONES BY DAYBREAK. CANT RULE OUT A
FEW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY N ZONES BUT MOST OF THE NIGHT SHOULD BE
DRY. CONTINUED SW FLOW NEAR THE S COAST WILL KEEP ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP AGAIN
TONIGHT. FOG BANK SITTING OVER ACK TO NEAR BID AND THIS WILL MOVE
ONSHORE TONIGHT SO WE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY ALONG THE S
COAST. THE FOG MAY SPREAD FURTHER N OVERNIGHT BUT HIGHEST
PROBABILITY OF VSBYS 1/4SM OR LESS WILL BE ALONG THE S COAST.
RELATIVELY MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS HOLDING IN UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...
POSITION OF THE BACKDOOR FRONT WILL DETERMINE TEMPERATURE
VARIABILITY ACROSS SNE AND WHERE BEST CHC OF CONVECTION WILL BE.
WE FOLLOWED NAM SOLUTION WHICH TYPICALLY HANDLES THE LOCATION OF
THESE SHALLOW FRONTS DUE TO ITS HIGHER RESOLUTION. THIS SUGGESTS
FRONT WILL MAKE IT AS FAR WEST AS CENTRAL MA TO RI. LARGE TEMP
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS SNE WITH MAXES RANGING FROM THE 60S E
COASTAL MA THROUGH SE NH...TO THE MID 80S LOWER CT VALLEY.

AIRMASS EXPECTED TO DESTABILIZE ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENG WHICH WILL
REMAIN WEST OF THE BOUNDARY...WITH CAPES INCREASING TO 1000-2000
J/KG. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW VERY FAVORABLE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
APPROACHING 7 C/KM. BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE IN THE COOLER
MORE STABLE AIRMASS TO THE NE WITH THE GRADIENT LYING ACROSS
CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW ENG...BUT MAGNITUDE WILL APPROACH 30 KT
IN THE UNSTABLE AIR. EXPECT SCT TSTMS TO DEVELOP WEST OF THE
BOUNDARY AND CANT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...CLOSER
TO CT VALLEY AND BERKSHIRES WHERE BEST INSTABILITY IS LOCATED.

TUESDAY NIGHT...
THE BACKDOOR FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE BACK NWD AS A WARM FRONT
AND WILL APPROACH NE ZONES TOWARD DAYBREAK. MORE LOW CLOUDS AND
AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST.
STRONG CONVECTION MAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING...OTHERWISE MODELS
ARE SHOWING ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO KEEP THE THREAT OF
A FEW SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED TSTM THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WED-THU
* COOLER...LESS HUMID FOR THE WEEKEND

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM.
THERE ARE SOME TIMING DISCREPANCIES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM
BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS. THE GFS IS ABOUT 12 HOURS SLOWER
WITH MOVING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS
FAIRLY WELL IN LINE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. GENERALLY EXPECTING A
MORE UNSETTLED BUT WARMER PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK...WITH QUIETER BUT COOLER WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES AND INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC WILL BRING A WARM FRONT NORTH
THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY. IN THE WARM
SECTOR...850MB TEMPS UP TO 15-16C WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES
AROUND 80 DEGREES BOTH DAYS. PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE REGION WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND PWATS MORE THAN TWICE THAT OF NORMAL.
ALONG WITH THE ABOVE...THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY THAT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE PEAK HEATING AFTERNOON
HOURS. THE BEST INSTABILITY IS OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA WEDNESDAY AND ANCHORED MORE OVER ALL OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
ON THURSDAY...SO AM EXPECTING THUNDERSTORMS TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD
AND ORGANIZED ON THURSDAY. WITH THE PWATS AS HIGH AS THEY
ARE...EXPECT HEAVY RAIN WITH ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THAT
DEVELOPS.

FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
SOMETIME ON FRIDAY...WITH THE ECMWF BRINGING IT THROUGH THE AREA
BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 6 AM AND THE GFS BRINGING IT THROUGH ABOUT
MIDDAY. THIS IS A CHANGE FROM YESTERDAYS MODEL RUNS WHERE THE GFS
WAS FASTER WITH THE TIMING SO THERES STILL QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING. THIS WILL HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON THE
WEATHER AS MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WARMER...MORE HUMID AIR CAN BE
FOUND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHILE CLEARING SKIES AND COOLER...LESS
HUMID AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT. IF THIS OCCURS DURING THE
EARLY MORNING...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE LOWER BUT THE AREA WILL
SEE MORE SUN...WHILE IF IT DOESN/T OCCUR UNTIL MIDDAY COULD SEE
WARMER HIGHS BUT LESS SUN AND POSSIBLY SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINANT OVER SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND...EXPECT A PLEASANT PERIOD WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

OVERVIEW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE OF
STRATUS AND FOG TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
THERE ARE SOME IFR CONDITIONS AT ACK AND BID. EXPECT THESE IFR
CONDITIONS TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ONTO THE CAPE AND SOUTH COAST OF
RI/MA AS LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MOVE ONSHORE. EVENTUALLY THE CLOUDS
AND FOG WILL SPREAD INLAND TONIGHT...HOWEVER...HIGHEST PROBABILITY
FOR IFR CONDITIONS IS ON THE SOUTH COAST.

TUESDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR WEST OF MHT TO ORH TO
IJD LINE /CT VALLEY/...LOW CLOUDS/FOG WILL KEEP AREAS EAST OF
THAT LINE IN MVFR/IFR. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE CT VALLEY DURING THE AFTN.

TUESDAY NIGHT...WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR IN STRATUS AND FOG REDEVELOP.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF
THE TERMINAL THROUGH 02Z. EXPECT CIGS/VSBYS TO LOWER TO IFR LATER
TONIGHT. SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR TUE.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TONIGHT
WITH IFR POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...IMPROVING TO VFR AROUND MIDDAY.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
VERY UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH VARIABILITY BETWEEN VFR CONDITIONS AND
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SHRA/TSRA/FOG.

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
FROM WEST TO EAST AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH REGION.

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE NIGHT.

WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THROUGH TUE NIGHT. MAY SEE
BRIEF E/NE GUSTS TO 20 KT LATE TONIGHT OVER NE MA COASTAL WATERS
AS THE BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES THROUGH. EXPECT MOSTLY EASTERLY WINDS
OVER THE EASTERN MA COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TUE NIGHT AND SW WINDS
OVER THE S COASTAL WATERS AS THE FRONT WILL BISECT THE WATERS.
WE FOLLOWED SWAN GUIDANCE FOR SEA FORECAST WHICH IS HANDLING SWELL
BETTER THAN WNAWAVE GUIDANCE. EXPECT MARGINAL SCA SWELL TO 5 FT
OVER THE OPEN S COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT SUBSIDING TUE.

EXPECT AREAS OF DENSE FOG TONIGHT INTO TUE WITH PERSISTENT SW
FLOW...ESPECIALLY OVER THE S COASTAL WATERS.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY...SEAS INCREASE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE
WATERS.  SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS GUST TO NEAR 25 KTS.  SCA WILL BE
NECESSARY FOR SEAS IF NOT WINDS AS WELL. VISIBILITY MAY BE
LIMITED AT TIMES IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THURSDAY...SEAS REMAIN ABOVE 5 FEET AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO
THE MARITIMES AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS GUST TO NEAR 25 KTS. SCA WILL BE NECESSARY
FOR SEAS IF NOT WINDS AS WELL. VISIBILITY MAY BE LIMITED AT TIMES
IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS INCREASE OVERNIGHT
WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

FRIDAY...SEAS BEGIN TO DIMINISH AFTER A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
WATERS AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. WINDS INCREASE
TO 25KTS WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND
THE FRONT.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE WATERS
RESULTING IN SEAS REMAINING BELOW 5 FEET.  WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS
STARTING OUT OF THE NORTH AND THEN VARIABLE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR MAZ020>023.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR MAZ024.
NH...NONE.
RI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR ANZ235-254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR ANZ255-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...KJC/RLG
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...KJC/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG

000
FXUS61 KOKX 202306
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
706 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA WILL SINK SOUTH CLOSER TO THE AREA
ON TUESDAY...THEN LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA UNTIL A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
STRATUS BEGINNING TO MOVE ONSHORE ACROSS SOUTHERN LONG ISLAND WITH
BROKEN CEILINGS AT ISLIP AT 23Z. FOG BANK SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND
SHOULD EXPAND N-WARD INTO COASTAL SECTIONS TONIGHT. CONTINUE WITH
THE DENSE FOG ADVY BEGINNING AT MIDNIGHT FOR SAME AREAS AS LAST
NIGHT. DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE LOWER 60S AND WITH ONSHORE FLOW
TEMPERATURE REMAIN IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES
AND DEW POINTS FOR CURRENT TRENDS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

AREA FROM ABOUT NEW YORK CITY AND EAST STABLE WITH 500 OR LESS
J/KG OF CAPE ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY INTO NORTHEAST NEW
JERSEY. ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO STABILIZE AND WITH NO TRIGGERS
IN PLACE HAVE REMOVED POPS.

LOWS SHOULD BE TIED CLOSELY TO JUICY MID AFTN DEW POINTS IN MOST
PLACES...MOSTLY LOWER AND MID 60S...EXCEPT MID/UPPER 60S IN NYC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH ON TUE AS RIDGE PREVAILS
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF UPSTREAM TROUGH...THEN DROP S INTO
SOUTHERN CT AND PERHAPS ERN LONG ISLAND TUE NIGHT. THE FRONT
SHOULD BE PRECEDED BY DIURNAL CONVECTION MAINLY INLAND LATE TUE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...THEN A GENERAL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND ISOLD THUNDER LATER TUE NIGHT.

TUE SHOULD FEATURE MORE SUNSHINE THAN TODAY AFTER MORNING FOG
BURNS OFF...AND WITH ARE MORE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 80S INLAND AND ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF WRN
LONG ISLAND...AND 70S IN COASTAL CT AND THE REST OF LONG ISLAND.

LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD REDEVELOP TUE NIGHT...MAINLY LATER AT
NIGHT AS IT WILL TAKE BLYR LONGER TO COOL DOWN CLOSER TO
DEW POINTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ABOUT THE MAIN FEATURES OF THE
WEEK. LONG TERM STARTS OUT WITH UPPER RIDING OVER THE AREA WITH
A MIDWEST TROUGH BEGINNING TO PHASE WITH A CANADIAN TROUGH. A WARM
FRONT WILL BE TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY...EXTENDING FROM
A LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE MIDWEST.

A WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW SETS UP BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...ALLOWING TEMPS
ON WEDNESDAY TO WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. THERE IS A WIDE RANGE
OF HIGH TEMP VALUES ON WED...NAM 2M TEMPS HAS HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S
OUT WEST...WHICH COULD POSSIBLY BE DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN CLOUD
COVER. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER MET...NOT AS WARM AS THE
NAM...WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S. LOWS
WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

ALSO ON WEDNESDAY...WITH THE MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW NEAR THE WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. ML AND SFC CAPE WEST
OF NYC WILL BE REACHING ABOVE 1000 J/KG IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH
DECENT LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. EVEN WITH THE FRONT NEARBY...LIFT MAY
NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO GENERATE ANY WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN WITH PW ABOVE
1.5 INCHES. ONLY HAVE CHANCE POPS IN WED AS THERE IS SOME
DISCREPANCY ON THE TIMING OF THE PRECIP APPROACHING THE AREA AND THE
COVERAGE OF IT.

DEEP TROUGH THEN DEVELOPS OVER THE MIDWEST ON THURSDAY AND TRACKS
EAST WITH THE ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NE INTO CANADA AND
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT SOUTH OF IT. COLD FRONT APPROACHES THURSDAY
EVENING WITH A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING AHEAD OF IT...ONCE
AGAIN TRIGGERING SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. INSTABILITY WILL BE
SLIGHTLY LESS THAT WED BUT BETTER LIFT WILL BE EVIDENT. STILL NOT
EXPECTING ANYTHING SEVERE BUT MAY SEE STRONG STORMS THAT WED. DO
HAVE LIKELY POPS IN FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF THE TIMING OF THE RAINFALL. TEMPS WILL BE
COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY...A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THE TROUGH MOVES EAST AND RAIN ENDS WEST TO EAST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE AND WINDS SHIFTING TO THE
NORTHWEST. MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND WILL BE DRY WITH TEMPS RIGHT AT
NORMAL. HIGHS WILL WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FRI-MON.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS NORTH OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
LEAVING US IN THE WARM MOIST AIR. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER
ROUND OF OVERNIGHT FOG AND STRATUS.

CONDITIONS NEAR OR BELOW MINIMUMS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: BKN CIG AT 030 SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 6 PM.
WINDS NOT EXPECTED TO GUST THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTN...BUT
DIRECTION WILL FLUCTUATE FROM 230-270. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON
TIMING AND SEVERITY OF OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS.

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WND FCST THIS EVENING.
WILL BE WATCHING FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT OFF THE OCEAN AS SOON
AS 22Z. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND SEVERITY OF OVERNIGHT
CONDITIONS. LOW IFR MAY DEVELOP EARLIER THAN FCST.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: BKN CIG AT 030 WILL DISSIPATE BY EARLY
EVENING. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND SEVERITY OF OVERNIGHT
CONDITIONS.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND SEVERITY OF
OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS. COULD BE BELOW MINIMUMS IN THE MORNING.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND SEVERITY OF
OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS. COULD BE BELOW MINIMUMS IN THE MORNING.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: FOG/STRATUS MAY MOVE IN EARLIER THAN FCST.
LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND SEVERITY OF OVERNIGHT
CONDITIONS. COULD BE BELOW MINIMUMS IN THE MORNING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.TUE AFTN...VFR. SCT TSTMS NORTH.
.TUE NGT...BECOMING IFR WITH FOG AND STRATUS.
.WED-FRI...SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS. AT NIGHT...IFR POSSIBLE
WITH STRATUS/FOG.
.SAT...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS ON TRACK. NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

OCEAN SEAS HAVE FINALLY BEGUN TO BUILD CLOSE TO 5 FT...SO SCA FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS HAS BEEN EXTENDED INTO THE EVENING W OF FIRE ISLAND
INLET...AND THROUGH THE NIGHT E TO MONTAUK. DENSE FOG CONTINUES
AND HAVE RE-ISSUED ADVY THROUGH TUE MORNING. THE DENSE FOG COULD
LAST ON THE OCEAN INTO TUE NIGHT OR WED MORNING.

SEAS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ON WED VIA A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT. SEAS COULD BE ABOVE 5 FT BY WED
AFTERNOON...WITH 25 KT WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN WATERS BY
WED EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS LATE THU NIGHT...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE ON FRI. WINDS COULD BE
BELOW SCA CRITERIA BY EARLY FRI MORNING...WITH SEAS REMAINING
ABOVE 5 FT THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON THE
TIMING OF THE COLD FROPA AND THE INCREASE OF WINDS ON WED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLD TO WIDELY SCT SHOWERS OR TSTMS LATE IN THE DAY TUE...MAINLY
INLAND. IMPACTS WILL BE MINIMAL.

SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS WED-THU WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...WITH THE BEST CHANCES NORTH/WEST OF NYC. TOTAL BASIN
AVG QPF FOR WED-THU COULD BE 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMTS IN TSTMS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR CTZ009>012.
NY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR NYZ071-078>081-177-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EDT TUESDAY
     FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR ANZ350-353.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT
     TONIGHT FOR ANZ355.

&&

$$