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000
FXUS61 KOKX 011814
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
214 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE TO END THE
WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ON SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY POTENTIALLY
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN CT IN ASSOC WITH A MESOVORT IS GRADUALLY
WEAKENING IN INTENSITY AFTER PRODUCING SEVERAL INCHES OF RAINFALL
THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. HARDEST HIT AREAS WERE
MIDDLESEX...NEW HAVEN...AND WESTERN NEW LONDON COUNTIES. THIS AREA
OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE SLOW TO MOVE EAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
AND SHOULD EXPAND SOUTH ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN LI
THIS AFT AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OVERHEAD. TO THE WEST...RAIN
CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW.

HIGH IN THE LOW TO MID 60S LOOKS TO BE REASONABLE WITH A FEW
SPOTS SLIGHTLY WARMER AROUND NYC METRO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
PCPN CONTINUES THIS EVENING...WITH THE MAIN QUESTION ON THE ENDING
TIME. UPPER LEVEL LOW PIVOTS EAST...WITH THE MAIN FORCING GENERALLY
RESIDING OVER EASTERN AREAS OF THE CWA FOR THE NIGHT. AS
SUCH...BEGAN TO TAPER POPS BACK FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
NIGHT...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EVEN POSSIBLE BY 06Z WEST OF NYC.
CONFIDENCE RESTS WITH THE PCPN CONTINUING THOUGH OVER EASTERN LI/SE
CT. HOWEVER...WITH THE BULLS EYE OF MAIN FORCING MAINLY
OFFSHORE...SIDING MORE WITH PCPN BEING ON THE LIGHTER SIDE. 00Z NAM
AND ECMWF DO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS OVER THE
FAR EASTERN REACHES OF THE CWA...BUT WILL WANT TO SEE THE TREND FOR
THE DAY BEFORE SIDING WITH THE HEAVIER AMTS. LIGHT PCPN LINGERS JUST
OFFSHORE THEN DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...TAPERING OFF LATE IN THE DAY
AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW FINALLY EXITS THE REGION...BEING REPLACED
WITH RIDGING ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH FRI EVENING. THE CFP
AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL ARE STILL LINED UP FOR LATE FRI NIGHT INTO
SAT. THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THIS TIMING. POP HAS
BEEN INCREASED TO CAT FOR SAT...AND LIKELY POP ALSO CONTINUES INTO
EARLY SAT EVENING ACROSS SRN CT AND LONG ISLAND.

SUNDAY WILL BE DRY AS ALL OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE SHUNTED OFF TO THE
EAST. THEN RAIN CHANCES SHOULD RETURN FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING...MAINLY MON INTO MON NIGHT.

FOR HIGHS...BOTH FRI/SAT SHOULD SEE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S...THEN A
COOLER DAY ON SUNDAY WITH ONLY LOWER/MID 60S. SLIGHT MODERATION
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH...MAINLY 65-70. LOWS SAT
NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT DO NOT LOOK TO BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
FROST CONCERNS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH A MOIST LOW
LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW PREVAILS AT THE SURFACE. AS A RESULT...EXPECT IFR
OR MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.

ON AND OFF LIGHT RAIN WITH A FEW EMBEDDED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT.
FURTHER WEST...THERE IS A LESSER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE PERSISTENT NORTH-NORTHEAST SFC FLOW
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS INCREASE ON THURSDAY WITH GUSTS INTO THE
UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: UN-FORECAST FLUCTUATIONS IN CIG CATEGORY
EXPECT THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FCST.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: UN-FORECAST FLUCTUATIONS IN CIG CATEGORY
EXPECT THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FCST THOUGH
DIRECTION MAY SWING 20 DEGREES RIGHT OF 040 MAGNETIC AT TIMES.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: UN-FORECAST FLUCTUATIONS IN CIG CATEGORY
EXPECT THROUGH THE PERIOD. CHANCE OF BRIEF PERIODS OF VFR IN THE
AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FCST.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: UN-FORECAST FLUCTUATIONS IN CIG CATEGORY
EXPECT THROUGH THE PERIOD. CHANCE OF BRIEF PERIODS OF VFR IN THE
AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FCST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: UN-FORECAST FLUCTUATIONS IN CIG CATEGORY
EXPECT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: UN-FORECAST FLUCTUATIONS IN CIG CATEGORY
EXPECT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THU AFTERNOON...VFR POSSIBLE LATE. NE WINDS 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS
TO 20KT.
.FRI...VFR. LGT SE WND.
.SAT...RAIN - MVFR OR LOWER AT TIMES. SE WIND 10-15G20 KT.
.SUN-MON...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN WATERS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
INCREASING NE FLOW. GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS
AFTN...WHILE SEAS GENERALLY BETWEEN 5 AND 7 FT ARE EXPECTED. ON
THE NON OCEAN WATERS...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS TODAY. COULD SEE OCNL
GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS IN THE BAYS AROUND LONG ISLAND AND EASTERN LONG
ISLAND SOUND...WITH THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME MORE PERSISTENT
TONIGHT. AS SUCH...A SCA MIGHT NEED TO BE ISSUED FOR THESE WATERS
TONIGHT/THURSDAY. THE REMAINING WATERS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA THROUGH THURSDAY. HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA FOR THE EASTERN
TWO-THIRDS OF THE OCEAN WATERS UNTIL THURS EVENING...WHILE THE
SCA CONTINUES FOR THE WESTERN PORTIONS JUST THROUGH TONIGHT.

FOR THU NIGHT AND BEYOND...HAZARDOUS OCEAN SEAS ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE FROM THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING...THEY SHOULD FALL BLW 5 FT
LATE FRI INTO FRI NIGHT...AND ONCE AGAIN RAMP UP THRU THE WEEKEND.
ELSEWHERE...THE ERN SOUND/BAYS COULD SEE SCA CONDS IN POST-FRONTAL W
FLOW ON SUNDAY. SCA CONDS ARE POSSIBLE ALL WATERS AGAIN ON MON AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SYS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL TOTALS TODAY ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND CONNECTICUT WILL
RANGE FROM A QUARTER OF AN INCH TO THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH.
AREAS TO THE WEST WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS.

QPF OF 3/4 TO 1 INCH LIKELY NW OF NYC ON SAT WITH COLD FRONT...AND
1/2 TO 3/4 INCH FARTHER EAST.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$








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000
FXUS61 KBOX 011736
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
136 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL...DAMP CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE INTO THURSDAY MORNING...WITH
MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED TODAY. DRY WEATHER RETURNS LATER
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE REGION.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
130 PM UPDATE...
PERIOD OF RAIN BENEATH UPPER CUTOFF CONTINUES TO PINWHEEL ACROSS
THE REGION. THANKFULLY...RAINFALL RATES HAVE GENERALLY BEEN
MODERATE AT BEST...JUST A GOOD SOAKING. OF CONCERN FOR THE REST OF
THE AFTERNOON IS THE POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE AND SHARPENING OF
INVERTED TROF AND MODERATE 40+ KT LLJ LATE THIS EVENING WHICH
COULD INCREASE THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL SOMEWHERE IN THE SE
MA AND RI REGION. THIS COULD LEAD TO LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS SHOULD THEY SET UP. HOWEVER...NAILING THIS DOWN EXACTLY IS
DIFFICULT THANKS TO CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER PENNSYLVANIA MOVES EASTWARD OVER SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND TODAY. COMBINED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL
SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET...AN INVERTED TROUGH SHOULD DEVELOP JUST
WEST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL CREATE A DEEP LAYER OF
LIFT THAT WILL ALLOW RAIN TO BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW BRINGS IN PLENTY OF COOL
MOIST AIR IN OFF THE OCEAN AND PWATS ARE 125 TO 175 PERCENT OF
NORMAL FOR EARLY OCTOBER. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MUCH NEEDED STEADY
RAINFALL ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITH ROUGHLY HALF AN INCH TO AN
INCH OF RAIN EXPECTED IN MOST LOCATIONS. HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE WHERE BANDS OF HEAVIER RAIN SET UP. WHILE WE CAN/T
DETERMINE EXACTLY WHERE THESE BANDS WILL DEVELOP...THE BEST CHANCE
FOR HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOKS TO BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST MASS
WHERE RAIN WILL LAST THE LONGEST BEFORE THE LOW PULLS AWAY TO THE
EAST.

USED LOCALLY PRODUCED BIAS CORRECTED MOS FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY
WHICH WILL REMAIN COOL AROUND 60 DEGREES FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...STEADY RAIN WILL COME TO AN END SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST
AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE REGION.  RAIN IS LIKELY
TO CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN MA AND RI THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
CONTINUED EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE
ALLOWING FOR LOW CLOUDS...DRIZZLE...AND FOG TO REMAIN ACROSS THE
REGION.  LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE 50S.

THURSDAY...WILL START TO SEE SOME DRYING...PARTICULARLY IN THE WEST
AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN.  CAPE AND ISLANDS WILL BE LAST
TO LOSE THE MOISTURE BUT CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN BREAKING UP BY THE END
OF THE DAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN WITH HIGHS AROUND
60...EXCEPT FOR THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY WHERE THEY MAY CLIMB INTO THE
MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BIG PICTURE... ALASKA SHORTWAVE DIGS OVER THE WESTERN USA/CANADA AND
KICKS THE ESTABLISHED UPPER TROUGH EAST TO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
BRINGS A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE EASTERN USA WITH BELOW
NORMAL HEIGHTS WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN USA.

EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW...A CLOSED LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND MOVES OFF
THROUGH THE MARITIMES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

THE DAILIES...

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OVER NEW
ENGLAND. CROSS SECTIONS OF RH SHOW DRYING IN MOST LAYERS THURSDAY
NIGHT BUT THEN AN INCREASING LAYER OF MOISTURE BELOW 800 MB BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SUGGESTS CLEARING...BUT FOLLOWED BY
INCREASING LOW CLOUDS AGAIN DURING FRIDAY.  RH CHARTS FROM THE GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW CLOUD MOISTURE BEING PUSHED WEST ACROSS THE GULF OF
MAINE FROM THE DEPARTING COASTAL LOW...AND INTO SOUTHEAST NH/EASTERN
MASS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BY FRIDAY NIGHT THE SAME MODELS SHOW LIGHT
PCPN OVER THIS AREA...SUGGESTING SPRINKLES OR DRIZZLE.

WE WILL HAVE A DRY FORECAST DURING THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BUT
WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH
FOG/DRIZZLE AND IN EAST COASTAL AREAS A CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PCPN.

LIGHT EAST WINDS WILL LIMIT MIXING...AND TEMPS IN THIS SHALLOW LAYER
WILL SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE 60S...COOLEST NEAR THE EAST MASS COAST
AND WARMEST IN THE CT VALLEY.

SATURDAY... THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DEEPENS
AS IT MOVES IT.  THE TROUGH USES A 110 KNOT JET TO PUSH A COLD FRONT
EAST TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. TEMPERATURE PROFILES SHOW A STRONG THERMAL
GRADIENT ACROSS THE FRONT. THE DEEPENING OF THE TROUGH ALSO TURNS
THE UPPER FLOW OVER NEW ENGLAND MORE FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
DRAWING MOISTURE NORTH...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO
REACH 1.5 TO 1.6 INCHES. STABILITY PARAMETERS ARE LESS THAN
MARGINAL...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE 5C/KM OR LESS AND TOTALS ARE
LESS THAN 44.

FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE LIKELY POPS BUT SLIGHTLY SLOWER
THAN PREVIOUSLY. THIS SLOWER TIMING ALIGNS WITH SIMILAR TRENDS IN
THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH WINDSHIFT IN THE CT VALLEY 2 PM TO 8 PM AND
IN THE COASTAL PLAIN 8 PM TO MIDNIGHT.

SUNDAY-MONDAY-TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE MOVES NORTH OF OUR AREA
SUNDAY...BUT THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
CONTOUR HEIGHTS AT 500 MB ARE BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND BUT THEN
MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL DURING THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.  SUNDAY
AND MONDAY LOOK DRY WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS.  THE TROUGH AXIS
EJECTS NORTHEAST BY TUESDAY AND MAY SUPPORT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT
THAT TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH TONIGHT...
MAINLY MIX OF IFR/MVFR IN PERIODS OF RAIN AND LOW CIGS THROUGH
THE REST OF THE DAY. THE PERIODS OF RAIN CONTINUE
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION. BETWEEN
RAINFALL...CONDITIONS COULD BRIEFLY DIP TO LIFR AT SOME TERMINALS.
ALSO...THERE IS THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND EVEN A BRIEF
THUNDERSHOWER FOR RI AND SE MA LATE THIS EVENING AND EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE N-NE WITH GUSTS 25-30
KT POSSIBLE AT NEAR COASTAL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT.

TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW NIGHT...
RAINFALL GRADUALLY COMES TO AN END WITH A SLOW LIFT FROM IFR/MVFR
TO VFR FROM W TO E. SOME E LOCATIONS MAY REMAIN IFR/MVFR FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY AND MAY WAIT UNTIL TOMORROW NIGHT BEFORE FULLY BREAKING
OUT. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL TREND IS EXPECTED TO BE FOR
IMPROVEMENT.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...VFR. AREAS OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN PATCHY FOG
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.  AREAS OF IFR CIGS MOVE WEST OFF THE OCEAN
INTO EAST COASTAL MASSACHUSETTS INCLUDING THE CAPE AND ISLANDS LATE
FRIDAY AND MORE LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY...IFR CIGS FROM THE WORCESTER HILLS EAST DURING THE
MORNING. VFR FARTHER WEST TO START THE DAY BUT LOWERING TO MVFR AND
SCATTERED IFR AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE IN THE DAY AND BRINGS
SHOWERS.  WIND SHIFTS FROM SOUTH DURING THE DAY TO WEST BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT LATE IN THE DAY AND EARLY AT NIGHT.

SUNDAY...VFR WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION WITH FAIR WEATHER.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE

PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY GUSTING
TO AROUND 25 KTS BY ABOUT MIDDAY TODAY. SEAS CONTINUE TO
INCREASE...PARTICULARLY ON THE NORTHEASTERN WATERS AND INTO BOSTON
HARBOR AND CAPE COD BAY. ADDED ALL THE WATERS EXCEPT FOR
NARRAGANSETT BAY TO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR BOTH WINDS AND
SEAS AND ALL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH
THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING 20 TO 25 KNOTS WILL
MAINTAIN 5 TO 9 FOOT SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS AND EXPOSED EASTERN
WATERS SUCH AS MASSACHUSETTS BAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE
NEEDED. FOG AND LOW CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE GULF OF MAINE MAY
CREATE POOR VSBYS FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY... LINGERING POOR VSBYS SATURDAY MORNING IN FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATER IN THE DAY AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES WITH SHOWERS.  SOUTH WINDS WILL GUST 25 TO 30 KNOTS
DURING THE DAY AND EVENING...SHIFTING TO WEST AFTER THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.  SEAS WILL CONTINUE AT 5 TO 8 FEET ON
THE OUTER WATERS AND OTHER EXPOSED WATERS.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS
LIKELY.

SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH A LITTLE BUT STILL ROUGH. SEAS WILL
LINGER AT 5 TO 7 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL GUST TO 25 KNOTS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ232.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ233-234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ230.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ231-235-
     237-250-251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/RLG
NEAR TERM...DOODY/RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/DOODY
MARINE...WTB/RLG




000
FXUS61 KBOX 011736
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
136 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL...DAMP CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE INTO THURSDAY MORNING...WITH
MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED TODAY. DRY WEATHER RETURNS LATER
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE REGION.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
130 PM UPDATE...
PERIOD OF RAIN BENEATH UPPER CUTOFF CONTINUES TO PINWHEEL ACROSS
THE REGION. THANKFULLY...RAINFALL RATES HAVE GENERALLY BEEN
MODERATE AT BEST...JUST A GOOD SOAKING. OF CONCERN FOR THE REST OF
THE AFTERNOON IS THE POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE AND SHARPENING OF
INVERTED TROF AND MODERATE 40+ KT LLJ LATE THIS EVENING WHICH
COULD INCREASE THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL SOMEWHERE IN THE SE
MA AND RI REGION. THIS COULD LEAD TO LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS SHOULD THEY SET UP. HOWEVER...NAILING THIS DOWN EXACTLY IS
DIFFICULT THANKS TO CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER PENNSYLVANIA MOVES EASTWARD OVER SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND TODAY. COMBINED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL
SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET...AN INVERTED TROUGH SHOULD DEVELOP JUST
WEST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL CREATE A DEEP LAYER OF
LIFT THAT WILL ALLOW RAIN TO BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW BRINGS IN PLENTY OF COOL
MOIST AIR IN OFF THE OCEAN AND PWATS ARE 125 TO 175 PERCENT OF
NORMAL FOR EARLY OCTOBER. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MUCH NEEDED STEADY
RAINFALL ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITH ROUGHLY HALF AN INCH TO AN
INCH OF RAIN EXPECTED IN MOST LOCATIONS. HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE WHERE BANDS OF HEAVIER RAIN SET UP. WHILE WE CAN/T
DETERMINE EXACTLY WHERE THESE BANDS WILL DEVELOP...THE BEST CHANCE
FOR HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOKS TO BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST MASS
WHERE RAIN WILL LAST THE LONGEST BEFORE THE LOW PULLS AWAY TO THE
EAST.

USED LOCALLY PRODUCED BIAS CORRECTED MOS FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY
WHICH WILL REMAIN COOL AROUND 60 DEGREES FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...STEADY RAIN WILL COME TO AN END SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST
AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE REGION.  RAIN IS LIKELY
TO CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN MA AND RI THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
CONTINUED EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE
ALLOWING FOR LOW CLOUDS...DRIZZLE...AND FOG TO REMAIN ACROSS THE
REGION.  LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE 50S.

THURSDAY...WILL START TO SEE SOME DRYING...PARTICULARLY IN THE WEST
AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN.  CAPE AND ISLANDS WILL BE LAST
TO LOSE THE MOISTURE BUT CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN BREAKING UP BY THE END
OF THE DAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN WITH HIGHS AROUND
60...EXCEPT FOR THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY WHERE THEY MAY CLIMB INTO THE
MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BIG PICTURE... ALASKA SHORTWAVE DIGS OVER THE WESTERN USA/CANADA AND
KICKS THE ESTABLISHED UPPER TROUGH EAST TO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
BRINGS A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE EASTERN USA WITH BELOW
NORMAL HEIGHTS WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN USA.

EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW...A CLOSED LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND MOVES OFF
THROUGH THE MARITIMES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

THE DAILIES...

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OVER NEW
ENGLAND. CROSS SECTIONS OF RH SHOW DRYING IN MOST LAYERS THURSDAY
NIGHT BUT THEN AN INCREASING LAYER OF MOISTURE BELOW 800 MB BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SUGGESTS CLEARING...BUT FOLLOWED BY
INCREASING LOW CLOUDS AGAIN DURING FRIDAY.  RH CHARTS FROM THE GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW CLOUD MOISTURE BEING PUSHED WEST ACROSS THE GULF OF
MAINE FROM THE DEPARTING COASTAL LOW...AND INTO SOUTHEAST NH/EASTERN
MASS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BY FRIDAY NIGHT THE SAME MODELS SHOW LIGHT
PCPN OVER THIS AREA...SUGGESTING SPRINKLES OR DRIZZLE.

WE WILL HAVE A DRY FORECAST DURING THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BUT
WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH
FOG/DRIZZLE AND IN EAST COASTAL AREAS A CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PCPN.

LIGHT EAST WINDS WILL LIMIT MIXING...AND TEMPS IN THIS SHALLOW LAYER
WILL SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE 60S...COOLEST NEAR THE EAST MASS COAST
AND WARMEST IN THE CT VALLEY.

SATURDAY... THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DEEPENS
AS IT MOVES IT.  THE TROUGH USES A 110 KNOT JET TO PUSH A COLD FRONT
EAST TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. TEMPERATURE PROFILES SHOW A STRONG THERMAL
GRADIENT ACROSS THE FRONT. THE DEEPENING OF THE TROUGH ALSO TURNS
THE UPPER FLOW OVER NEW ENGLAND MORE FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
DRAWING MOISTURE NORTH...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO
REACH 1.5 TO 1.6 INCHES. STABILITY PARAMETERS ARE LESS THAN
MARGINAL...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE 5C/KM OR LESS AND TOTALS ARE
LESS THAN 44.

FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE LIKELY POPS BUT SLIGHTLY SLOWER
THAN PREVIOUSLY. THIS SLOWER TIMING ALIGNS WITH SIMILAR TRENDS IN
THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH WINDSHIFT IN THE CT VALLEY 2 PM TO 8 PM AND
IN THE COASTAL PLAIN 8 PM TO MIDNIGHT.

SUNDAY-MONDAY-TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE MOVES NORTH OF OUR AREA
SUNDAY...BUT THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
CONTOUR HEIGHTS AT 500 MB ARE BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND BUT THEN
MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL DURING THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.  SUNDAY
AND MONDAY LOOK DRY WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS.  THE TROUGH AXIS
EJECTS NORTHEAST BY TUESDAY AND MAY SUPPORT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT
THAT TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH TONIGHT...
MAINLY MIX OF IFR/MVFR IN PERIODS OF RAIN AND LOW CIGS THROUGH
THE REST OF THE DAY. THE PERIODS OF RAIN CONTINUE
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION. BETWEEN
RAINFALL...CONDITIONS COULD BRIEFLY DIP TO LIFR AT SOME TERMINALS.
ALSO...THERE IS THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND EVEN A BRIEF
THUNDERSHOWER FOR RI AND SE MA LATE THIS EVENING AND EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE N-NE WITH GUSTS 25-30
KT POSSIBLE AT NEAR COASTAL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT.

TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW NIGHT...
RAINFALL GRADUALLY COMES TO AN END WITH A SLOW LIFT FROM IFR/MVFR
TO VFR FROM W TO E. SOME E LOCATIONS MAY REMAIN IFR/MVFR FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY AND MAY WAIT UNTIL TOMORROW NIGHT BEFORE FULLY BREAKING
OUT. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL TREND IS EXPECTED TO BE FOR
IMPROVEMENT.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...VFR. AREAS OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN PATCHY FOG
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.  AREAS OF IFR CIGS MOVE WEST OFF THE OCEAN
INTO EAST COASTAL MASSACHUSETTS INCLUDING THE CAPE AND ISLANDS LATE
FRIDAY AND MORE LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY...IFR CIGS FROM THE WORCESTER HILLS EAST DURING THE
MORNING. VFR FARTHER WEST TO START THE DAY BUT LOWERING TO MVFR AND
SCATTERED IFR AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE IN THE DAY AND BRINGS
SHOWERS.  WIND SHIFTS FROM SOUTH DURING THE DAY TO WEST BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT LATE IN THE DAY AND EARLY AT NIGHT.

SUNDAY...VFR WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION WITH FAIR WEATHER.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE

PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY GUSTING
TO AROUND 25 KTS BY ABOUT MIDDAY TODAY. SEAS CONTINUE TO
INCREASE...PARTICULARLY ON THE NORTHEASTERN WATERS AND INTO BOSTON
HARBOR AND CAPE COD BAY. ADDED ALL THE WATERS EXCEPT FOR
NARRAGANSETT BAY TO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR BOTH WINDS AND
SEAS AND ALL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH
THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING 20 TO 25 KNOTS WILL
MAINTAIN 5 TO 9 FOOT SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS AND EXPOSED EASTERN
WATERS SUCH AS MASSACHUSETTS BAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE
NEEDED. FOG AND LOW CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE GULF OF MAINE MAY
CREATE POOR VSBYS FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY... LINGERING POOR VSBYS SATURDAY MORNING IN FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATER IN THE DAY AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES WITH SHOWERS.  SOUTH WINDS WILL GUST 25 TO 30 KNOTS
DURING THE DAY AND EVENING...SHIFTING TO WEST AFTER THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.  SEAS WILL CONTINUE AT 5 TO 8 FEET ON
THE OUTER WATERS AND OTHER EXPOSED WATERS.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS
LIKELY.

SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH A LITTLE BUT STILL ROUGH. SEAS WILL
LINGER AT 5 TO 7 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL GUST TO 25 KNOTS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ232.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ233-234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ230.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ231-235-
     237-250-251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/RLG
NEAR TERM...DOODY/RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/DOODY
MARINE...WTB/RLG


  [top]

000
FXUS61 KALY 011729
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
129 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE
REGION WILL ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS...THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN DOMINATE...ALLOWING FOR A
CLEARING SKY AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING GUSTY RAIN SHOWERS
AND COOLER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT...STILL FOLLOWING A CLOSED OFF LOW OVER CENTRAL
NEW JERSEY...VERY SLOWLY LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST. SHOWERS WERE
SCATTERED FROM ABOUT THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND
EASTWARD...BECOMING NUMEROUS TO THE EAST OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
TACONICS.

FOR THIS UPDATE...CALLED IT SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS (INSTEAD OF
CHANCE) SINCE SHOWERS ARE ONGOING. DID RAISE THE POPS TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION AS THE EASTERLY FLOW IN ENHANCED
ADDING LIFT AND MORE MOISTURE ON THE EASTWARD SIDE OF THE GREENS AND
TACONICS AND LITCHFIELD HILLS...LESS SO THE WEST SIDE.

WE ALSO LOWERED A FEW TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES.

THE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MAINLY OUR EASTERN ZONES.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT...BUT WILL BE NOTICEABLE DUE TO
THE RECENT STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER. THE RAIN SHOWERS PROBABLY WON/T
MAKE IT ANY FURTHER NORTH AND WEST THAN THE CAPITAL REGION.

IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF CLOUDS IN PLACE AND SFC OBS
SHOW A GOOD DEAL OF STRATUS AS WELL. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THESE
CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
ENTIRE DAY TODAY...AS THE UPPER LOW SLIDES EASTWARD TO OUR SOUTH
TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...KEEPING THE MOIST EASTERLY FLOW IN
PLACE.

LOOK FOR HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 50S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREENS
AND BERKS...60-65 MOST OTHER PLACES. THERE COULD BE A FEW BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE WELL NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY...LOTS OF CLOUDS ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY DEPART TO OUR EAST TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS TO DIMINISH FROM
WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING...WITH JUST A LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE
OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND LATE TONIGHT. IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
CLOUDY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT ONCE THE CLOUDS FINALLY START TO THIN OUT...ESP FOR ANY
AREAS THAT SEE RAINFALL. OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY LOOK TO BE IN THE 50S.

MORNING CLOUDS WILL BREAK FOR SUNSHINE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AS
THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST OF CAPE COD...AND WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN
AT 500 HPA. HIGH TEMPS LOOK TO REACH WELL INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70
FOR VALLEY AREAS.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH
RIDGING IN PLACE ALOFT AND WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA.
SKIES WILL BE CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A COOLER NIGHT ON THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING...WITH 40S IN MOST AREAS. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL ON FRIDAY DUE TO 850 HPA TEMPS AROUND 10 TO 11 DEGREES
C AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...WITH VALLEY HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN SETTING UP WITH A STRONG UPPER SYSTEM
DROPPING OUT OF CANADA AND DRAWING MOISTURE FROM THE SUBTROPICS AS A
LEADING UPPER IMPULSE TRACKS AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
MEAN EASTERN NORTH AMERICAN UPPER TROUGH.  THE UPPER IMPULSE GOES
NEGATIVE TILT AND THE COMBINATION OF THE UPPER DYNAMICS...MOISTURE
AND LOW LEVEL FORCING...IS EXPECTED TO BRING A SOAKING RAIN TO THE
AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. COOLING BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT..ALONG WITH WEST LOW LEVEL FLOW...COULD RESULT IN RATHER
EXTENSIVE CLOUDS INTO THROUGH SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS SUNDAY WITH SOME
LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE. THERE SHOULD BE A
PERIOD OF RELATIVE CLEARING SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT IN
MOST OTHER AREAS.

ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK AROUND TH SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH AND REINFORCE THE COOLER AIR OVER
OUR REGION AROUND THE MONDAY TIME FRAME...WITH ANOTHER POTENTIAL
PERIOD OF SHOWERS.  ALTHOUGH THE TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO AROUND OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ONCE THE COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY...THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR LOOKS TO REMAIN WEST OF
THE REGION...MORE PROXIMATE TO THE UPPER LOW IN CANADA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S SATURDAY...BUT COOLER IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. THEN...HIGHS AROUND 60 TO MID 60S THROUGH MONDAY...50S
IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS TAF SITES ON AN EASTERLY FLOW
WHICH IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. AS A RESULT MVFR CONDS WILL BE THE NORM
WITH IFR AT KPOU UNTIL MID AFT DUE TO LOW CIGS.

OVERNIGHT MOISTURE WL CONT TO CIRCULATE ACRS THE TAF SITES WITH
ANY CLEARING NOT EXPECTED UNTIL AFT THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT
18Z THURSDAY. MVFR/IFR CONDS WL BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR VSBYS AND MVFR CIGS AFT 15Z THURSDAY.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH 15Z AND THEN
BECOME N-NE AT 5-8 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TODAY...ALONG WITH A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS. RH VALUES WILL ONLY DROP
TO 65 TO 70 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS. RH
VALUES WILL RECOVER TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH FOG AND DEW
FORMATION AND NEARLY CALM WINDS.

CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY BREAK FOR SUNSHINE ON THURSDAY WITH RH VALUES
DROPPING TO AROUND 60 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS OF 5 MPH OR LESS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A NEARBY UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
TODAY INTO TONIGHT...MAINLY FOR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
REGION. BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL WILL BE TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OR
LESS...AND THIS LOOKS TO HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS...WHICH HAVE BEEN RUNNING QUITE LOW LATELY DUE TO A LACK OF
RECENT RAINFALL.

A MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT ON SATURDAY. MOST AREAS LOOK TO SEE AT LEAST A HALF INCH OF
RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM.  THIS RAINFALL WILL NOT CAUSE ANY HYDROLOGIC
ISSUES...AND WILL BE BENEFICIAL TO THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/HWJIV/11
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS








000
FXUS61 KALY 011729
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
129 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE
REGION WILL ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS...THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN DOMINATE...ALLOWING FOR A
CLEARING SKY AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING GUSTY RAIN SHOWERS
AND COOLER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT...STILL FOLLOWING A CLOSED OFF LOW OVER CENTRAL
NEW JERSEY...VERY SLOWLY LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST. SHOWERS WERE
SCATTERED FROM ABOUT THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND
EASTWARD...BECOMING NUMEROUS TO THE EAST OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
TACONICS.

FOR THIS UPDATE...CALLED IT SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS (INSTEAD OF
CHANCE) SINCE SHOWERS ARE ONGOING. DID RAISE THE POPS TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION AS THE EASTERLY FLOW IN ENHANCED
ADDING LIFT AND MORE MOISTURE ON THE EASTWARD SIDE OF THE GREENS AND
TACONICS AND LITCHFIELD HILLS...LESS SO THE WEST SIDE.

WE ALSO LOWERED A FEW TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES.

THE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MAINLY OUR EASTERN ZONES.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT...BUT WILL BE NOTICEABLE DUE TO
THE RECENT STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER. THE RAIN SHOWERS PROBABLY WON/T
MAKE IT ANY FURTHER NORTH AND WEST THAN THE CAPITAL REGION.

IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF CLOUDS IN PLACE AND SFC OBS
SHOW A GOOD DEAL OF STRATUS AS WELL. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THESE
CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
ENTIRE DAY TODAY...AS THE UPPER LOW SLIDES EASTWARD TO OUR SOUTH
TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...KEEPING THE MOIST EASTERLY FLOW IN
PLACE.

LOOK FOR HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 50S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREENS
AND BERKS...60-65 MOST OTHER PLACES. THERE COULD BE A FEW BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE WELL NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY...LOTS OF CLOUDS ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY DEPART TO OUR EAST TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS TO DIMINISH FROM
WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING...WITH JUST A LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE
OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND LATE TONIGHT. IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
CLOUDY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT ONCE THE CLOUDS FINALLY START TO THIN OUT...ESP FOR ANY
AREAS THAT SEE RAINFALL. OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY LOOK TO BE IN THE 50S.

MORNING CLOUDS WILL BREAK FOR SUNSHINE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AS
THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST OF CAPE COD...AND WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN
AT 500 HPA. HIGH TEMPS LOOK TO REACH WELL INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70
FOR VALLEY AREAS.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH
RIDGING IN PLACE ALOFT AND WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA.
SKIES WILL BE CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A COOLER NIGHT ON THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING...WITH 40S IN MOST AREAS. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL ON FRIDAY DUE TO 850 HPA TEMPS AROUND 10 TO 11 DEGREES
C AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...WITH VALLEY HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN SETTING UP WITH A STRONG UPPER SYSTEM
DROPPING OUT OF CANADA AND DRAWING MOISTURE FROM THE SUBTROPICS AS A
LEADING UPPER IMPULSE TRACKS AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
MEAN EASTERN NORTH AMERICAN UPPER TROUGH.  THE UPPER IMPULSE GOES
NEGATIVE TILT AND THE COMBINATION OF THE UPPER DYNAMICS...MOISTURE
AND LOW LEVEL FORCING...IS EXPECTED TO BRING A SOAKING RAIN TO THE
AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. COOLING BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT..ALONG WITH WEST LOW LEVEL FLOW...COULD RESULT IN RATHER
EXTENSIVE CLOUDS INTO THROUGH SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS SUNDAY WITH SOME
LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE. THERE SHOULD BE A
PERIOD OF RELATIVE CLEARING SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT IN
MOST OTHER AREAS.

ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK AROUND TH SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH AND REINFORCE THE COOLER AIR OVER
OUR REGION AROUND THE MONDAY TIME FRAME...WITH ANOTHER POTENTIAL
PERIOD OF SHOWERS.  ALTHOUGH THE TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO AROUND OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ONCE THE COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY...THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR LOOKS TO REMAIN WEST OF
THE REGION...MORE PROXIMATE TO THE UPPER LOW IN CANADA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S SATURDAY...BUT COOLER IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. THEN...HIGHS AROUND 60 TO MID 60S THROUGH MONDAY...50S
IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS TAF SITES ON AN EASTERLY FLOW
WHICH IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. AS A RESULT MVFR CONDS WILL BE THE NORM
WITH IFR AT KPOU UNTIL MID AFT DUE TO LOW CIGS.

OVERNIGHT MOISTURE WL CONT TO CIRCULATE ACRS THE TAF SITES WITH
ANY CLEARING NOT EXPECTED UNTIL AFT THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT
18Z THURSDAY. MVFR/IFR CONDS WL BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR VSBYS AND MVFR CIGS AFT 15Z THURSDAY.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH 15Z AND THEN
BECOME N-NE AT 5-8 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TODAY...ALONG WITH A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS. RH VALUES WILL ONLY DROP
TO 65 TO 70 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS. RH
VALUES WILL RECOVER TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH FOG AND DEW
FORMATION AND NEARLY CALM WINDS.

CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY BREAK FOR SUNSHINE ON THURSDAY WITH RH VALUES
DROPPING TO AROUND 60 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS OF 5 MPH OR LESS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A NEARBY UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
TODAY INTO TONIGHT...MAINLY FOR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
REGION. BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL WILL BE TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OR
LESS...AND THIS LOOKS TO HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS...WHICH HAVE BEEN RUNNING QUITE LOW LATELY DUE TO A LACK OF
RECENT RAINFALL.

A MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT ON SATURDAY. MOST AREAS LOOK TO SEE AT LEAST A HALF INCH OF
RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM.  THIS RAINFALL WILL NOT CAUSE ANY HYDROLOGIC
ISSUES...AND WILL BE BENEFICIAL TO THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/HWJIV/11
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS







000
FXUS61 KALY 011635
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1230 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE
REGION WILL ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS...THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN DOMINATE...ALLOWING FOR A
CLEARING SKY AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING GUSTY RAIN SHOWERS
AND COOLER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT...STILL FOLLOWING A CLOSED OFF LOW OVER CENTRAL
NEW JERSEY...VERY SLOWLY LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST. SHOWERS WERE
SCATTERED FROM ABOUT THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND
EASTWARD...BECOMING NUMEROUS TO THE EAST OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
TACONICS.

FOR THIS UPDATE...CALLED IT SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS (INSTEAD OF
CHANCE) SINCE SHOWERS ARE ONGOING. DID RAISE THE POPS TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION AS THE EASTERLY FLOW IN ENHANCED
ADDING LIFT AND MORE MOISTURE ON THE EASTWARD SIDE OF THE GREENS AND
TACONICS AND LITCHFIELD HILLS...LESS SO THE WEST SIDE.

WE ALSO LOWERED A FEW TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES.

THE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MAINLY OUR EASTERN ZONES.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT...BUT WILL BE NOTICEABLE DUE TO
THE RECENT STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER. THE RAIN SHOWERS PROBABLY WON/T
MAKE IT ANY FURTHER NORTH AND WEST THAN THE CAPITAL REGION.

IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF CLOUDS IN PLACE AND SFC OBS
SHOW A GOOD DEAL OF STRATUS AS WELL. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THESE
CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
ENTIRE DAY TODAY...AS THE UPPER LOW SLIDES EASTWARD TO OUR SOUTH
TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...KEEPING THE MOIST EASTERLY FLOW IN
PLACE.

LOOK FOR HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 50S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREENS
AND BERKS...60-65 MOST OTHER PLACES. THERE COULD BE A FEW BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE WELL NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY...LOTS OF CLOUDS ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY DEPART TO OUR EAST TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS TO DIMINISH FROM
WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING...WITH JUST A LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE
OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND LATE TONIGHT. IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
CLOUDY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT ONCE THE CLOUDS FINALLY START TO THIN OUT...ESP FOR ANY
AREAS THAT SEE RAINFALL. OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY LOOK TO BE IN THE 50S.

MORNING CLOUDS WILL BREAK FOR SUNSHINE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AS
THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST OF CAPE COD...AND WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN
AT 500 HPA. HIGH TEMPS LOOK TO REACH WELL INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70
FOR VALLEY AREAS.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH
RIDGING IN PLACE ALOFT AND WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA.
SKIES WILL BE CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A COOLER NIGHT ON THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING...WITH 40S IN MOST AREAS. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL ON FRIDAY DUE TO 850 HPA TEMPS AROUND 10 TO 11 DEGREES
C AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...WITH VALLEY HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN SETTING UP WITH A STRONG UPPER SYSTEM
DROPPING OUT OF CANADA AND DRAWING MOISTURE FROM THE SUBTROPICS AS A
LEADING UPPER IMPULSE TRACKS AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
MEAN EASTERN NORTH AMERICAN UPPER TROUGH.  THE UPPER IMPULSE GOES
NEGATIVE TILT AND THE COMBINATION OF THE UPPER DYNAMICS...MOISTURE
AND LOW LEVEL FORCING...IS EXPECTED TO BRING A SOAKING RAIN TO THE
AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. COOLING BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT..ALONG WITH WEST LOW LEVEL FLOW...COULD RESULT IN RATHER
EXTENSIVE CLOUDS INTO THROUGH SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS SUNDAY WITH SOME
LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE. THERE SHOULD BE A
PERIOD OF RELATIVE CLEARING SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT IN
MOST OTHER AREAS.

ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK AROUND TH SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH AND REINFORCE THE COOLER AIR OVER
OUR REGION AROUND THE MONDAY TIME FRAME...WITH ANOTHER POTENTIAL
PERIOD OF SHOWERS.  ALTHOUGH THE TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO AROUND OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ONCE THE COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY...THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR LOOKS TO REMAIN WEST OF
THE REGION...MORE PROXIMATE TO THE UPPER LOW IN CANADA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S SATURDAY...BUT COOLER IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. THEN...HIGHS AROUND 60 TO MID 60S THROUGH MONDAY...50S
IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS EAST...MOISTURE...CLOUDS AND PATCHY LIGHT
RAIN WILL SLOWLY BUILD WEST AND NORTHWEST. MVFR CEILINGS HAVE BUILT
WEST INTO THE REGION...AND BASED ON SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS...THE
MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. VISIBILITIES WILL
BE VFR...MAYBE BRIEFLY MVFR IF SOME VERY PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AFFECTS
THE REGION...WITH VCSH AT KALB...KPSF AND KPOU WHERE PATCHY VERY
LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE.

MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AND INTO THIS
EVENING...WITH SOME PERIODS OF VFR CEILINGS ABOVE 3000 FEET DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AT KALB AND KGFL...WHERE THE LEAST
CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE. VCSH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AT KPSF AND KPOU.
BY EVENING...THE MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD LINGER BUT VISIBILITIES SHOULD
CONTINUE MAINLY VFR.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT LESS
THAN 10 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VARIABLE WINDS BY THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TODAY...ALONG WITH A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS. RH VALUES WILL ONLY DROP
TO 65 TO 70 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS. RH
VALUES WILL RECOVER TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH FOG AND DEW
FORMATION AND NEARLY CALM WINDS.

CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY BREAK FOR SUNSHINE ON THURSDAY WITH RH VALUES
DROPPING TO AROUND 60 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS OF 5 MPH OR LESS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A NEARBY UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
TODAY INTO TONIGHT...MAINLY FOR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
REGION. BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL WILL BE TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OR
LESS...AND THIS LOOKS TO HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS...WHICH HAVE BEEN RUNNING QUITE LOW LATELY DUE TO A LACK OF
RECENT RAINFALL.

A MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT ON SATURDAY. MOST AREAS LOOK TO SEE AT LEAST A HALF INCH OF
RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM.  THIS RAINFALL WILL NOT CAUSE ANY HYDROLOGIC
ISSUES...AND WILL BE BENEFICIAL TO THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/HWJIV/11
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS










000
FXUS61 KALY 011635
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1230 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE
REGION WILL ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS...THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN DOMINATE...ALLOWING FOR A
CLEARING SKY AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING GUSTY RAIN SHOWERS
AND COOLER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT...STILL FOLLOWING A CLOSED OFF LOW OVER CENTRAL
NEW JERSEY...VERY SLOWLY LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST. SHOWERS WERE
SCATTERED FROM ABOUT THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND
EASTWARD...BECOMING NUMEROUS TO THE EAST OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
TACONICS.

FOR THIS UPDATE...CALLED IT SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS (INSTEAD OF
CHANCE) SINCE SHOWERS ARE ONGOING. DID RAISE THE POPS TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION AS THE EASTERLY FLOW IN ENHANCED
ADDING LIFT AND MORE MOISTURE ON THE EASTWARD SIDE OF THE GREENS AND
TACONICS AND LITCHFIELD HILLS...LESS SO THE WEST SIDE.

WE ALSO LOWERED A FEW TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES.

THE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MAINLY OUR EASTERN ZONES.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT...BUT WILL BE NOTICEABLE DUE TO
THE RECENT STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER. THE RAIN SHOWERS PROBABLY WON/T
MAKE IT ANY FURTHER NORTH AND WEST THAN THE CAPITAL REGION.

IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF CLOUDS IN PLACE AND SFC OBS
SHOW A GOOD DEAL OF STRATUS AS WELL. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THESE
CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
ENTIRE DAY TODAY...AS THE UPPER LOW SLIDES EASTWARD TO OUR SOUTH
TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...KEEPING THE MOIST EASTERLY FLOW IN
PLACE.

LOOK FOR HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 50S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREENS
AND BERKS...60-65 MOST OTHER PLACES. THERE COULD BE A FEW BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE WELL NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY...LOTS OF CLOUDS ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY DEPART TO OUR EAST TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS TO DIMINISH FROM
WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING...WITH JUST A LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE
OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND LATE TONIGHT. IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
CLOUDY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT ONCE THE CLOUDS FINALLY START TO THIN OUT...ESP FOR ANY
AREAS THAT SEE RAINFALL. OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY LOOK TO BE IN THE 50S.

MORNING CLOUDS WILL BREAK FOR SUNSHINE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AS
THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST OF CAPE COD...AND WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN
AT 500 HPA. HIGH TEMPS LOOK TO REACH WELL INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70
FOR VALLEY AREAS.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH
RIDGING IN PLACE ALOFT AND WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA.
SKIES WILL BE CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A COOLER NIGHT ON THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING...WITH 40S IN MOST AREAS. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL ON FRIDAY DUE TO 850 HPA TEMPS AROUND 10 TO 11 DEGREES
C AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...WITH VALLEY HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN SETTING UP WITH A STRONG UPPER SYSTEM
DROPPING OUT OF CANADA AND DRAWING MOISTURE FROM THE SUBTROPICS AS A
LEADING UPPER IMPULSE TRACKS AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
MEAN EASTERN NORTH AMERICAN UPPER TROUGH.  THE UPPER IMPULSE GOES
NEGATIVE TILT AND THE COMBINATION OF THE UPPER DYNAMICS...MOISTURE
AND LOW LEVEL FORCING...IS EXPECTED TO BRING A SOAKING RAIN TO THE
AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. COOLING BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT..ALONG WITH WEST LOW LEVEL FLOW...COULD RESULT IN RATHER
EXTENSIVE CLOUDS INTO THROUGH SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS SUNDAY WITH SOME
LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE. THERE SHOULD BE A
PERIOD OF RELATIVE CLEARING SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT IN
MOST OTHER AREAS.

ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK AROUND TH SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH AND REINFORCE THE COOLER AIR OVER
OUR REGION AROUND THE MONDAY TIME FRAME...WITH ANOTHER POTENTIAL
PERIOD OF SHOWERS.  ALTHOUGH THE TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO AROUND OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ONCE THE COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY...THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR LOOKS TO REMAIN WEST OF
THE REGION...MORE PROXIMATE TO THE UPPER LOW IN CANADA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S SATURDAY...BUT COOLER IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. THEN...HIGHS AROUND 60 TO MID 60S THROUGH MONDAY...50S
IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS EAST...MOISTURE...CLOUDS AND PATCHY LIGHT
RAIN WILL SLOWLY BUILD WEST AND NORTHWEST. MVFR CEILINGS HAVE BUILT
WEST INTO THE REGION...AND BASED ON SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS...THE
MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. VISIBILITIES WILL
BE VFR...MAYBE BRIEFLY MVFR IF SOME VERY PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AFFECTS
THE REGION...WITH VCSH AT KALB...KPSF AND KPOU WHERE PATCHY VERY
LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE.

MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AND INTO THIS
EVENING...WITH SOME PERIODS OF VFR CEILINGS ABOVE 3000 FEET DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AT KALB AND KGFL...WHERE THE LEAST
CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE. VCSH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AT KPSF AND KPOU.
BY EVENING...THE MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD LINGER BUT VISIBILITIES SHOULD
CONTINUE MAINLY VFR.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT LESS
THAN 10 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VARIABLE WINDS BY THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TODAY...ALONG WITH A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS. RH VALUES WILL ONLY DROP
TO 65 TO 70 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS. RH
VALUES WILL RECOVER TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH FOG AND DEW
FORMATION AND NEARLY CALM WINDS.

CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY BREAK FOR SUNSHINE ON THURSDAY WITH RH VALUES
DROPPING TO AROUND 60 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS OF 5 MPH OR LESS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A NEARBY UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
TODAY INTO TONIGHT...MAINLY FOR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
REGION. BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL WILL BE TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OR
LESS...AND THIS LOOKS TO HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS...WHICH HAVE BEEN RUNNING QUITE LOW LATELY DUE TO A LACK OF
RECENT RAINFALL.

A MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT ON SATURDAY. MOST AREAS LOOK TO SEE AT LEAST A HALF INCH OF
RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM.  THIS RAINFALL WILL NOT CAUSE ANY HYDROLOGIC
ISSUES...AND WILL BE BENEFICIAL TO THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/HWJIV/11
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS









000
FXUS61 KOKX 011501 CCA
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1100 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE TO END THE
WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ON SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY POTENTIALLY
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WELL DEFINED COUNTERCLOCKWISE CIRCULATION SHOWS UP ON RADAR
IMAGERY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CT...WHICH APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED
WITH MESOVORT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW. IN FACT...DUAL
POL PRECIP ACCUM SHOWS OVER AN INCH OF RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF
MIDDLESEX COUNTY IN CT. THIS AREA OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE SLOW TO MOVE
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...PRIMARILY IMPACTING NEW HAVEN AND NW
MIDDLESEX COUNTIES. THE RAIN SHIELD MAY ACTUALLY DROP SOUTH ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN LI THIS AFT AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
OVERHEAD.

HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED HIGHS DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES WITH THE
RAIN...CLOUD COVER...AND NE FLOW.

EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SHOWERS IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR MODERATE TO
EVEN HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH THE MESO MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
WILL OCCUR OVER EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND SE CT...CORRESPONDING TO
THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION OF THE STRONGEST FORCING/VORT MAX BY THIS
AFTN/EVENING. SO FOR POPS...AM KEEPING LIKELY/DEFINITE WORDING IN
FOR AREAS GENERALLY EAST OF NYC METRO...WITH CHC TO THE WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
PCPN CONTINUES THIS EVENING...WITH THE MAIN QUESTION ON THE ENDING
TIME. UPPER LEVEL LOW PIVOTS EAST...WITH THE MAIN FORCING GENERALLY
RESIDING OVER EASTERN AREAS OF THE CWA FOR THE NIGHT. AS
SUCH...BEGAN TO TAPER POPS BACK FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
NIGHT...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EVEN POSSIBLE BY 06Z WEST OF NYC.
CONFIDENCE RESTS WITH THE PCPN CONTINUING THOUGH OVER EASTERN LI/SE
CT. HOWEVER...WITH THE BULLS EYE OF MAIN FORCING MAINLY
OFFSHORE...SIDING MORE WITH PCPN BEING ON THE LIGHTER SIDE. 00Z NAM
AND ECMWF DO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS OVER THE
FAR EASTERN REACHES OF THE CWA...BUT WILL WANT TO SEE THE TREND FOR
THE DAY BEFORE SIDING WITH THE HEAVIER AMTS. LIGHT PCPN LINGERS JUST
OFFSHORE THEN DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...TAPERING OFF LATE IN THE DAY
AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW FINALLY EXITS THE REGION...BEING REPLACED
WITH RIDGING ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH FRI EVENING. THE CFP
AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL ARE STILL LINED UP FOR LATE FRI NIGHT INTO
SAT. THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THIS TIMING. POP HAS
BEEN INCREASED TO CAT FOR SAT...AND LIKELY POP ALSO CONTINUES INTO
EARLY SAT EVENING ACROSS SRN CT AND LONG ISLAND.

SUNDAY WILL BE DRY AS ALL OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE SHUNTED OFF TO THE
EAST. THEN RAIN CHANCES SHOULD RETURN FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING...MAINLY MON INTO MON NIGHT.

FOR HIGHS...BOTH FRI/SAT SHOULD SEE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S...THEN A
COOLER DAY ON SUNDAY WITH ONLY LOWER/MID 60S. SLIGHT MODERATION
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH...MAINLY 65-70. LOWS SAT
NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT DO NOT LOOK TO BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
FROST CONCERNS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PASSES OVER THE REGION TODAY AS A VERY MOIST
LOW LEVEL NE FLOW PREVAILS AT THE SURFACE. THIS RESULTS IN
IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.

LIGHT RAIN WITH A FEW EMBEDDED SHOWERS FOR LONG ISLAND AND
SOUTHERN CT INTO THIS EVENING.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE PERSISTENT NNE SFC FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AN OCCASIONAL GUST INTO THE UPPER TEENS FOR THE NY METRO EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON. GUSTS NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAFS DUE TO THE INFREQUENT
NATURE EXPECTED.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: UN-FORECAST FLUCTUATIONS IN CIG CATEGORY
EXPECT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FCST.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: UN-FORECAST FLUCTUATIONS IN CIG CATEGORY
EXPECT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FCST THOUGH DIRECTION MAY SWING 20 DEGREES RIGHT
OF 040 MAGNETIC AT TIMES.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: UN-FORECAST FLUCTUATIONS IN CIG CATEGORY
EXPECT THROUGH THE PERIOD. CHANCE OF BRIEF PERIODS OF VFR IN THE
AFTERNOON.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FCST.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES  SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: UN-FORECAST FLUCTUATIONS IN CIG CATEGORY
EXPECT THROUGH THE PERIOD. CHANCE OF BRIEF PERIODS OF VFR IN THE
AFTERNOON.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FCST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: UN-FORECAST FLUCTUATIONS IN CIG CATEGORY
EXPECT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: UN-FORECAST FLUCTUATIONS IN CIG CATEGORY
EXPECT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.THU...MVFR CIGS IN THE AM...THEN VFR. NE WINDS 10-15 KT.
.FRI...VFR. LGT SE WND.
.SAT...RAIN - MVFR OR LOWER AT TIMES. SE WIND 10-15G20 KT.
.SUN...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN WATERS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
INCREASING NE FLOW. GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS
AFTN...WHILE SEAS GENERALLY BETWEEN 5 AND 7 FT ARE EXPECTED. ON
THE NON OCEAN WATERS...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS TODAY. COULD SEE OCNL
GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS IN THE BAYS AROUND LONG ISLAND AND EASTERN LONG
ISLAND SOUND...WITH THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME MORE PERSISTENT
TONIGHT. AS SUCH...A SCA MIGHT NEED TO BE ISSUED FOR THESE WATERS
TONIGHT/THURSDAY. THE REMAINING WATERS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA THROUGH THURSDAY. HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA FOR THE EASTERN
TWO-THIRDS OF THE OCEAN WATERS UNTIL THURS EVENING...WHILE THE
SCA CONTINUES FOR THE WESTERN PORTIONS JUST THROUGH TONIGHT.

FOR THU NIGHT AND BEYOND...HAZARDOUS OCEAN SEAS ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE FROM THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING...THEY SHOULD FALL BLW 5 FT
LATE FRI INTO FRI NIGHT...AND ONCE AGAIN RAMP UP THRU THE WEEKEND.
ELSEWHERE...THE ERN SOUND/BAYS COULD SEE SCA CONDS IN POST-FRONTAL W
FLOW ON SUNDAY. SCA CONDS ARE POSSIBLE ALL WATERS AGAIN ON MON AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SYS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL RESULTING IN HYDROLOGIC ISSUES IS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

RAINFALL TOTALS TODAY ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND CONNECTICUT WILL
RANGE FROM A QUARTER OF AN INCH TO THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH.
AREAS TO THE WEST WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS.

QPF OF 3/4 TO 1 INCH LIKELY NW OF NYC ON SAT WITH COLD FRONT...AND
1/2 TO 3/4 INCH FARTHER EAST.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/SEARS
NEAR TERM...SEARS/DW
SHORT TERM...SEARS
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...BC/TONGUE
MARINE...GOODMAN/SEARS
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/SEARS/DW










000
FXUS61 KOKX 011501 CCA
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1100 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE TO END THE
WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ON SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY POTENTIALLY
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WELL DEFINED COUNTERCLOCKWISE CIRCULATION SHOWS UP ON RADAR
IMAGERY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CT...WHICH APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED
WITH MESOVORT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW. IN FACT...DUAL
POL PRECIP ACCUM SHOWS OVER AN INCH OF RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF
MIDDLESEX COUNTY IN CT. THIS AREA OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE SLOW TO MOVE
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...PRIMARILY IMPACTING NEW HAVEN AND NW
MIDDLESEX COUNTIES. THE RAIN SHIELD MAY ACTUALLY DROP SOUTH ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN LI THIS AFT AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
OVERHEAD.

HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED HIGHS DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES WITH THE
RAIN...CLOUD COVER...AND NE FLOW.

EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SHOWERS IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR MODERATE TO
EVEN HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH THE MESO MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
WILL OCCUR OVER EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND SE CT...CORRESPONDING TO
THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION OF THE STRONGEST FORCING/VORT MAX BY THIS
AFTN/EVENING. SO FOR POPS...AM KEEPING LIKELY/DEFINITE WORDING IN
FOR AREAS GENERALLY EAST OF NYC METRO...WITH CHC TO THE WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
PCPN CONTINUES THIS EVENING...WITH THE MAIN QUESTION ON THE ENDING
TIME. UPPER LEVEL LOW PIVOTS EAST...WITH THE MAIN FORCING GENERALLY
RESIDING OVER EASTERN AREAS OF THE CWA FOR THE NIGHT. AS
SUCH...BEGAN TO TAPER POPS BACK FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
NIGHT...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EVEN POSSIBLE BY 06Z WEST OF NYC.
CONFIDENCE RESTS WITH THE PCPN CONTINUING THOUGH OVER EASTERN LI/SE
CT. HOWEVER...WITH THE BULLS EYE OF MAIN FORCING MAINLY
OFFSHORE...SIDING MORE WITH PCPN BEING ON THE LIGHTER SIDE. 00Z NAM
AND ECMWF DO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS OVER THE
FAR EASTERN REACHES OF THE CWA...BUT WILL WANT TO SEE THE TREND FOR
THE DAY BEFORE SIDING WITH THE HEAVIER AMTS. LIGHT PCPN LINGERS JUST
OFFSHORE THEN DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...TAPERING OFF LATE IN THE DAY
AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW FINALLY EXITS THE REGION...BEING REPLACED
WITH RIDGING ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH FRI EVENING. THE CFP
AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL ARE STILL LINED UP FOR LATE FRI NIGHT INTO
SAT. THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THIS TIMING. POP HAS
BEEN INCREASED TO CAT FOR SAT...AND LIKELY POP ALSO CONTINUES INTO
EARLY SAT EVENING ACROSS SRN CT AND LONG ISLAND.

SUNDAY WILL BE DRY AS ALL OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE SHUNTED OFF TO THE
EAST. THEN RAIN CHANCES SHOULD RETURN FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING...MAINLY MON INTO MON NIGHT.

FOR HIGHS...BOTH FRI/SAT SHOULD SEE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S...THEN A
COOLER DAY ON SUNDAY WITH ONLY LOWER/MID 60S. SLIGHT MODERATION
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH...MAINLY 65-70. LOWS SAT
NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT DO NOT LOOK TO BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
FROST CONCERNS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PASSES OVER THE REGION TODAY AS A VERY MOIST
LOW LEVEL NE FLOW PREVAILS AT THE SURFACE. THIS RESULTS IN
IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.

LIGHT RAIN WITH A FEW EMBEDDED SHOWERS FOR LONG ISLAND AND
SOUTHERN CT INTO THIS EVENING.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE PERSISTENT NNE SFC FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AN OCCASIONAL GUST INTO THE UPPER TEENS FOR THE NY METRO EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON. GUSTS NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAFS DUE TO THE INFREQUENT
NATURE EXPECTED.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: UN-FORECAST FLUCTUATIONS IN CIG CATEGORY
EXPECT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FCST.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: UN-FORECAST FLUCTUATIONS IN CIG CATEGORY
EXPECT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FCST THOUGH DIRECTION MAY SWING 20 DEGREES RIGHT
OF 040 MAGNETIC AT TIMES.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: UN-FORECAST FLUCTUATIONS IN CIG CATEGORY
EXPECT THROUGH THE PERIOD. CHANCE OF BRIEF PERIODS OF VFR IN THE
AFTERNOON.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FCST.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES  SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: UN-FORECAST FLUCTUATIONS IN CIG CATEGORY
EXPECT THROUGH THE PERIOD. CHANCE OF BRIEF PERIODS OF VFR IN THE
AFTERNOON.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FCST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: UN-FORECAST FLUCTUATIONS IN CIG CATEGORY
EXPECT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: UN-FORECAST FLUCTUATIONS IN CIG CATEGORY
EXPECT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.THU...MVFR CIGS IN THE AM...THEN VFR. NE WINDS 10-15 KT.
.FRI...VFR. LGT SE WND.
.SAT...RAIN - MVFR OR LOWER AT TIMES. SE WIND 10-15G20 KT.
.SUN...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN WATERS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
INCREASING NE FLOW. GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS
AFTN...WHILE SEAS GENERALLY BETWEEN 5 AND 7 FT ARE EXPECTED. ON
THE NON OCEAN WATERS...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS TODAY. COULD SEE OCNL
GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS IN THE BAYS AROUND LONG ISLAND AND EASTERN LONG
ISLAND SOUND...WITH THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME MORE PERSISTENT
TONIGHT. AS SUCH...A SCA MIGHT NEED TO BE ISSUED FOR THESE WATERS
TONIGHT/THURSDAY. THE REMAINING WATERS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA THROUGH THURSDAY. HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA FOR THE EASTERN
TWO-THIRDS OF THE OCEAN WATERS UNTIL THURS EVENING...WHILE THE
SCA CONTINUES FOR THE WESTERN PORTIONS JUST THROUGH TONIGHT.

FOR THU NIGHT AND BEYOND...HAZARDOUS OCEAN SEAS ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE FROM THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING...THEY SHOULD FALL BLW 5 FT
LATE FRI INTO FRI NIGHT...AND ONCE AGAIN RAMP UP THRU THE WEEKEND.
ELSEWHERE...THE ERN SOUND/BAYS COULD SEE SCA CONDS IN POST-FRONTAL W
FLOW ON SUNDAY. SCA CONDS ARE POSSIBLE ALL WATERS AGAIN ON MON AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SYS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL RESULTING IN HYDROLOGIC ISSUES IS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

RAINFALL TOTALS TODAY ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND CONNECTICUT WILL
RANGE FROM A QUARTER OF AN INCH TO THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH.
AREAS TO THE WEST WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS.

QPF OF 3/4 TO 1 INCH LIKELY NW OF NYC ON SAT WITH COLD FRONT...AND
1/2 TO 3/4 INCH FARTHER EAST.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/SEARS
NEAR TERM...SEARS/DW
SHORT TERM...SEARS
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...BC/TONGUE
MARINE...GOODMAN/SEARS
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/SEARS/DW











000
FXUS61 KOKX 011454
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1054 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE TO END THE
WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ON SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY POTENTIALLY
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WELL DEFINED COUNTERCLOCKWISE CIRCULATION SHOWS UP ON RADAR
IMAGERY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CT...WHICH APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED
WITH MESOVORT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW. IN FACT...DUAL
POL PRECIP ACCUM SHOWS OVER AN INCH OF RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF
MIDDLESEX COUNTY IN CT. THIS AREA OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE SLOW TO MOVE
OVER TH NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...PRIMARILY IMPACTING NEW HAVEN AND NW
MIDDLESEX COUNTIES. THE RAIN SHIELD MAY ACTUALLY DROP SOUTH ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN LI THIS AFT AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
OVERHEAD.

HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED HIGHS DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES WITH THE
RAIN...CLOUD COVER...AND NE FLOW.

EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SHOWERS IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR MODERATE TO
EVEN HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH THE MESO MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
WILL OCCUR OVER EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND SE CT...CORRESPONDING TO
THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION OF THE STRONGEST FORCING/VORT MAX BY THIS
AFTN/EVENING. SO FOR POPS...AM KEEPING LIKELY/DEFINITE WORDING IN
FOR AREAS GENERALLY EAST OF NYC METRO...WITH CHC TO THE WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
PCPN CONTINUES THIS EVENING...WITH THE MAIN QUESTION ON THE ENDING
TIME. UPPER LEVEL LOW PIVOTS EAST...WITH THE MAIN FORCING GENERALLY
RESIDING OVER EASTERN AREAS OF THE CWA FOR THE NIGHT. AS
SUCH...BEGAN TO TAPER POPS BACK FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
NIGHT...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EVEN POSSIBLE BY 06Z WEST OF NYC.
CONFIDENCE RESTS WITH THE PCPN CONTINUING THOUGH OVER EASTERN LI/SE
CT. HOWEVER...WITH THE BULLS EYE OF MAIN FORCING MAINLY
OFFSHORE...SIDING MORE WITH PCPN BEING ON THE LIGHTER SIDE. 00Z NAM
AND ECMWF DO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS OVER THE
FAR EASTERN REACHES OF THE CWA...BUT WILL WANT TO SEE THE TREND FOR
THE DAY BEFORE SIDING WITH THE HEAVIER AMTS. LIGHT PCPN LINGERS JUST
OFFSHORE THEN DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...TAPERING OFF LATE IN THE DAY
AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW FINALLY EXITS THE REGION...BEING REPLACED
WITH RIDGING ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH FRI EVENING. THE CFP
AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL ARE STILL LINED UP FOR LATE FRI NIGHT INTO
SAT. THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THIS TIMING. POP HAS
BEEN INCREASED TO CAT FOR SAT...AND LIKELY POP ALSO CONTINUES INTO
EARLY SAT EVENING ACROSS SRN CT AND LONG ISLAND.

SUNDAY WILL BE DRY AS ALL OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE SHUNTED OFF TO THE
EAST. THEN RAIN CHANCES SHOULD RETURN FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING...MAINLY MON INTO MON NIGHT.

FOR HIGHS...BOTH FRI/SAT SHOULD SEE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S...THEN A
COOLER DAY ON SUNDAY WITH ONLY LOWER/MID 60S. SLIGHT MODERATION
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH...MAINLY 65-70. LOWS SAT
NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT DO NOT LOOK TO BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
FROST CONCERNS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PASSES OVER THE REGION TODAY AS A VERY MOIST
LOW LEVEL NE FLOW PREVAILS AT THE SURFACE. THIS RESULTS IN
IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.

LIGHT RAIN WITH A FEW EMBEDDED SHOWERS FOR LONG ISLAND AND
SOUTHERN CT INTO THIS EVENING.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE PERSISTENT NNE SFC FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AN OCCASIONAL GUST INTO THE UPPER TEENS FOR THE NY METRO EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON. GUSTS NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAFS DUE TO THE INFREQUENT
NATURE EXPECTED.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: UN-FORECAST FLUCTUATIONS IN CIG CATEGORY
EXPECT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FCST.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: UN-FORECAST FLUCTUATIONS IN CIG CATEGORY
EXPECT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FCST THOUGH DIRECTION MAY SWING 20 DEGREES RIGHT
OF 040 MAGNETIC AT TIMES.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: UN-FORECAST FLUCTUATIONS IN CIG CATEGORY
EXPECT THROUGH THE PERIOD. CHANCE OF BRIEF PERIODS OF VFR IN THE
AFTERNOON.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FCST.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES  SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: UN-FORECAST FLUCTUATIONS IN CIG CATEGORY
EXPECT THROUGH THE PERIOD. CHANCE OF BRIEF PERIODS OF VFR IN THE
AFTERNOON.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FCST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: UN-FORECAST FLUCTUATIONS IN CIG CATEGORY
EXPECT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: UN-FORECAST FLUCTUATIONS IN CIG CATEGORY
EXPECT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.THU...MVFR CIGS IN THE AM...THEN VFR. NE WINDS 10-15 KT.
.FRI...VFR. LGT SE WND.
.SAT...RAIN - MVFR OR LOWER AT TIMES. SE WIND 10-15G20 KT.
.SUN...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN WATERS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
INCREASING NE FLOW. GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS
AFTN...WHILE SEAS GENERALLY BETWEEN 5 AND 7 FT ARE EXPECTED. ON
THE NON OCEAN WATERS...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS TODAY. COULD SEE OCNL
GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS IN THE BAYS AROUND LONG ISLAND AND EASTERN LONG
ISLAND SOUND...WITH THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME MORE PERSISTENT
TONIGHT. AS SUCH...A SCA MIGHT NEED TO BE ISSUED FOR THESE WATERS
TONIGHT/THURSDAY. THE REMAINING WATERS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA THROUGH THURSDAY. HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA FOR THE EASTERN
TWO-THIRDS OF THE OCEAN WATERS UNTIL THURS EVENING...WHILE THE
SCA CONTINUES FOR THE WESTERN PORTIONS JUST THROUGH TONIGHT.

FOR THU NIGHT AND BEYOND...HAZARDOUS OCEAN SEAS ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE FROM THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING...THEY SHOULD FALL BLW 5 FT
LATE FRI INTO FRI NIGHT...AND ONCE AGAIN RAMP UP THRU THE WEEKEND.
ELSEWHERE...THE ERN SOUND/BAYS COULD SEE SCA CONDS IN POST-FRONTAL W
FLOW ON SUNDAY. SCA CONDS ARE POSSIBLE ALL WATERS AGAIN ON MON AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SYS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL RESULTING IN HYDROLOGIC ISSUES IS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

RAINFALL TOTALS TODAY ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND CONNECTICUT WILL
RANGE FROM A QUARTER OF AN INCH TO THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH.
AREAS TO THE WEST WILL GENERALLY BE A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS.

QPF OF 3/4 TO 1 INCH LIKELY NW OF NYC ON SAT WITH COLD FRONT...AND
1/2 TO 3/4 INCH FARTHER EAST.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/SEARS
NEAR TERM...SEARS/DW
SHORT TERM...SEARS
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...BC/TONGUE
MARINE...GOODMAN/SEARS
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/SEARS









000
FXUS61 KALY 011422
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1022 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE
REGION WILL ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS...THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN DOMINATE...ALLOWING FOR
CLEARING SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING GUSTY RAIN SHOWERS
AND COOLER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1020 AM EDT...A CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY
OVER SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS SYSTEM IS
PICKING UP MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND PRODUCING SHOWERS
OVER NEW ENGLAND IN AN EASTERLY FLOW. THESE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE
SLOWLY TRACKING NORTHWEST WITHIN THE FLOW AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW...AND HAVE MOVED INTO EASTERN NY...INCLUDING PARTS OF THE
CAPITAL REGION.

THE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MAINLY OUR EASTERN ZONES.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT...BUT WILL BE NOTICEABLE DUE TO
THE RECENT STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER. THE RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING
PROBABLY WON/T MAKE IT ANY FURTHER NORTH AND WEST THAN THE CAPITAL
REGION...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING A SHOWER THROUGHOUT THE
DAY ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.

IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF CLOUDS IN PLACE AND SFC OBS
SHOW A GOOD DEAL OF STRATUS AS WELL. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THESE
CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
ENTIRE DAY TODAY...AS THE UPPER LOW SLIDES EASTWARD TO OUR SOUTH
TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...KEEPING THE MOIST EASTERLY FLOW IN
PLACE.

WITH THE CLOUDS/PRECIP...HAVE SIDED ON THE COOLER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR VALLEY
AREAS /UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY DEPART TO OUR EAST TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS TO DIMINISH FROM
WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING...WITH JUST A LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE
OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND LATE TONIGHT. IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
CLOUDY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT ONCE THE CLOUDS FINALLY START TO THIN OUT...ESP FOR ANY
AREAS THAT SEE RAINFALL. OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY LOOK TO BE IN THE 50S.

MORNING CLOUDS WILL BREAK FOR SUNSHINE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AS
THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST OF CAPE COD...AND WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN
AT 500 HPA. HIGH TEMPS LOOK TO REACH WELL INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70
FOR VALLEY AREAS.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH
RIDGING IN PLACE ALOFT AND WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA.
SKIES WILL BE CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A COOLER NIGHT ON THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING...WITH 40S IN MOST AREAS. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL ON FRIDAY DUE TO 850 HPA TEMPS AROUND 10 TO 11 DEGREES
C AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...WITH VALLEY HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN SETTING UP WITH A STRONG UPPER SYSTEM
DROPPING OUT OF CANADA AND DRAWING MOISTURE FROM THE SUBTROPICS AS A
LEADING UPPER IMPULSE TRACKS AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
MEAN EASTERN NORTH AMERICAN UPPER TROUGH.  THE UPPER IMPULSE GOES
NEGATIVE TILT AND THE COMBINATION OF THE UPPER DYNAMICS...MOISTURE
AND LOW LEVEL FORCING...IS EXPECTED TO BRING A SOAKING RAIN TO THE
AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. COOLING BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT..ALONG WITH WEST LOW LEVEL FLOW...COULD RESULT IN RATHER
EXTENSIVE CLOUDS INTO THROUGH SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS SUNDAY WITH SOME
LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE. THERE SHOULD BE A
PERIOD OF RELATIVE CLEARING SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT IN
MOST OTHER AREAS.

ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK AROUND TH SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH AND REINFORCE THE COOLER AIR OVER
OUR REGION AROUND THE MONDAY TIME FRAME...WITH ANOTHER POTENTIAL
PERIOD OF SHOWERS.  ALTHOUGH THE TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO AROUND OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ONCE THE COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY...THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR LOOKS TO REMAIN WEST OF
THE REGION...MORE PROXIMATE TO THE UPPER LOW IN CANADA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S SATURDAY...BUT COOLER IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. THEN...HIGHS AROUND 60 TO MID 60S THROUGH MONDAY...50S
IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS EAST...MOISTURE...CLOUDS AND PATCHY LIGHT
RAIN WILL SLOWLY BUILD WEST AND NORTHWEST. MVFR CEILINGS HAVE BUILT
WEST INTO THE REGION...AND BASED ON SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS...THE
MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. VISIBILITIES WILL
BE VFR...MAYBE BRIEFLY MVFR IF SOME VERY PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AFFECTS
THE REGION...WITH VCSH AT KALB...KPSF AND KPOU WHERE PATCHY VERY
LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE.

MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AND INTO THIS
EVENING...WITH SOME PERIODS OF VFR CEILINGS ABOVE 3000 FEET DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AT KALB AND KGFL...WHERE THE LEAST
CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE. VCSH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AT KPSF AND KPOU.
BY EVENING...THE MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD LINGER BUT VISIBILITIES SHOULD
CONTINUE MAINLY VFR.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT LESS
THAN 10 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VARIABLE WINDS BY THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TODAY...ALONG WITH A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS. RH VALUES WILL ONLY DROP
TO 65 TO 70 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS. RH
VALUES WILL RECOVER TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH FOG AND DEW
FORMATION AND NEARLY CALM WINDS.

CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY BREAK FOR SUNSHINE ON THURSDAY WITH RH VALUES
DROPPING TO AROUND 60 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS OF 5 MPH OR LESS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A NEARBY UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
TODAY INTO TONIGHT...MAINLY FOR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
REGION. BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL WILL BE TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OR
LESS...AND THIS LOOKS TO HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS...WHICH HAVE BEEN RUNNING QUITE LOW LATELY DUE TO A LACK OF
RECENT RAINFALL.

A MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT ON SATURDAY. MOST AREAS LOOK TO SEE AT LEAST A HALF INCH OF
RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM.  THIS RAINFALL WILL NOT CAUSE ANY HYDROLOGIC
ISSUES...AND WILL BE BENEFICIAL TO THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS







000
FXUS61 KALY 011422
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1022 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE
REGION WILL ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS...THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN DOMINATE...ALLOWING FOR
CLEARING SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING GUSTY RAIN SHOWERS
AND COOLER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1020 AM EDT...A CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY
OVER SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS SYSTEM IS
PICKING UP MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND PRODUCING SHOWERS
OVER NEW ENGLAND IN AN EASTERLY FLOW. THESE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE
SLOWLY TRACKING NORTHWEST WITHIN THE FLOW AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW...AND HAVE MOVED INTO EASTERN NY...INCLUDING PARTS OF THE
CAPITAL REGION.

THE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MAINLY OUR EASTERN ZONES.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT...BUT WILL BE NOTICEABLE DUE TO
THE RECENT STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER. THE RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING
PROBABLY WON/T MAKE IT ANY FURTHER NORTH AND WEST THAN THE CAPITAL
REGION...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING A SHOWER THROUGHOUT THE
DAY ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.

IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF CLOUDS IN PLACE AND SFC OBS
SHOW A GOOD DEAL OF STRATUS AS WELL. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THESE
CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
ENTIRE DAY TODAY...AS THE UPPER LOW SLIDES EASTWARD TO OUR SOUTH
TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...KEEPING THE MOIST EASTERLY FLOW IN
PLACE.

WITH THE CLOUDS/PRECIP...HAVE SIDED ON THE COOLER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR VALLEY
AREAS /UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY DEPART TO OUR EAST TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS TO DIMINISH FROM
WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING...WITH JUST A LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE
OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND LATE TONIGHT. IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
CLOUDY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT ONCE THE CLOUDS FINALLY START TO THIN OUT...ESP FOR ANY
AREAS THAT SEE RAINFALL. OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY LOOK TO BE IN THE 50S.

MORNING CLOUDS WILL BREAK FOR SUNSHINE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AS
THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST OF CAPE COD...AND WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN
AT 500 HPA. HIGH TEMPS LOOK TO REACH WELL INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70
FOR VALLEY AREAS.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH
RIDGING IN PLACE ALOFT AND WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA.
SKIES WILL BE CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A COOLER NIGHT ON THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING...WITH 40S IN MOST AREAS. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL ON FRIDAY DUE TO 850 HPA TEMPS AROUND 10 TO 11 DEGREES
C AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...WITH VALLEY HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN SETTING UP WITH A STRONG UPPER SYSTEM
DROPPING OUT OF CANADA AND DRAWING MOISTURE FROM THE SUBTROPICS AS A
LEADING UPPER IMPULSE TRACKS AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
MEAN EASTERN NORTH AMERICAN UPPER TROUGH.  THE UPPER IMPULSE GOES
NEGATIVE TILT AND THE COMBINATION OF THE UPPER DYNAMICS...MOISTURE
AND LOW LEVEL FORCING...IS EXPECTED TO BRING A SOAKING RAIN TO THE
AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. COOLING BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT..ALONG WITH WEST LOW LEVEL FLOW...COULD RESULT IN RATHER
EXTENSIVE CLOUDS INTO THROUGH SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS SUNDAY WITH SOME
LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE. THERE SHOULD BE A
PERIOD OF RELATIVE CLEARING SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT IN
MOST OTHER AREAS.

ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK AROUND TH SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH AND REINFORCE THE COOLER AIR OVER
OUR REGION AROUND THE MONDAY TIME FRAME...WITH ANOTHER POTENTIAL
PERIOD OF SHOWERS.  ALTHOUGH THE TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO AROUND OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ONCE THE COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY...THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR LOOKS TO REMAIN WEST OF
THE REGION...MORE PROXIMATE TO THE UPPER LOW IN CANADA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S SATURDAY...BUT COOLER IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. THEN...HIGHS AROUND 60 TO MID 60S THROUGH MONDAY...50S
IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS EAST...MOISTURE...CLOUDS AND PATCHY LIGHT
RAIN WILL SLOWLY BUILD WEST AND NORTHWEST. MVFR CEILINGS HAVE BUILT
WEST INTO THE REGION...AND BASED ON SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS...THE
MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. VISIBILITIES WILL
BE VFR...MAYBE BRIEFLY MVFR IF SOME VERY PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AFFECTS
THE REGION...WITH VCSH AT KALB...KPSF AND KPOU WHERE PATCHY VERY
LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE.

MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AND INTO THIS
EVENING...WITH SOME PERIODS OF VFR CEILINGS ABOVE 3000 FEET DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AT KALB AND KGFL...WHERE THE LEAST
CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE. VCSH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AT KPSF AND KPOU.
BY EVENING...THE MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD LINGER BUT VISIBILITIES SHOULD
CONTINUE MAINLY VFR.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT LESS
THAN 10 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VARIABLE WINDS BY THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TODAY...ALONG WITH A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS. RH VALUES WILL ONLY DROP
TO 65 TO 70 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS. RH
VALUES WILL RECOVER TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH FOG AND DEW
FORMATION AND NEARLY CALM WINDS.

CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY BREAK FOR SUNSHINE ON THURSDAY WITH RH VALUES
DROPPING TO AROUND 60 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS OF 5 MPH OR LESS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A NEARBY UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
TODAY INTO TONIGHT...MAINLY FOR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
REGION. BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL WILL BE TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OR
LESS...AND THIS LOOKS TO HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS...WHICH HAVE BEEN RUNNING QUITE LOW LATELY DUE TO A LACK OF
RECENT RAINFALL.

A MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT ON SATURDAY. MOST AREAS LOOK TO SEE AT LEAST A HALF INCH OF
RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM.  THIS RAINFALL WILL NOT CAUSE ANY HYDROLOGIC
ISSUES...AND WILL BE BENEFICIAL TO THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS







000
FXUS61 KALY 011422
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1022 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE
REGION WILL ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS...THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN DOMINATE...ALLOWING FOR
CLEARING SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING GUSTY RAIN SHOWERS
AND COOLER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1020 AM EDT...A CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY
OVER SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS SYSTEM IS
PICKING UP MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND PRODUCING SHOWERS
OVER NEW ENGLAND IN AN EASTERLY FLOW. THESE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE
SLOWLY TRACKING NORTHWEST WITHIN THE FLOW AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW...AND HAVE MOVED INTO EASTERN NY...INCLUDING PARTS OF THE
CAPITAL REGION.

THE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MAINLY OUR EASTERN ZONES.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT...BUT WILL BE NOTICEABLE DUE TO
THE RECENT STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER. THE RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING
PROBABLY WON/T MAKE IT ANY FURTHER NORTH AND WEST THAN THE CAPITAL
REGION...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING A SHOWER THROUGHOUT THE
DAY ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.

IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF CLOUDS IN PLACE AND SFC OBS
SHOW A GOOD DEAL OF STRATUS AS WELL. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THESE
CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
ENTIRE DAY TODAY...AS THE UPPER LOW SLIDES EASTWARD TO OUR SOUTH
TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...KEEPING THE MOIST EASTERLY FLOW IN
PLACE.

WITH THE CLOUDS/PRECIP...HAVE SIDED ON THE COOLER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR VALLEY
AREAS /UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY DEPART TO OUR EAST TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS TO DIMINISH FROM
WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING...WITH JUST A LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE
OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND LATE TONIGHT. IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
CLOUDY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT ONCE THE CLOUDS FINALLY START TO THIN OUT...ESP FOR ANY
AREAS THAT SEE RAINFALL. OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY LOOK TO BE IN THE 50S.

MORNING CLOUDS WILL BREAK FOR SUNSHINE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AS
THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST OF CAPE COD...AND WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN
AT 500 HPA. HIGH TEMPS LOOK TO REACH WELL INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70
FOR VALLEY AREAS.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH
RIDGING IN PLACE ALOFT AND WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA.
SKIES WILL BE CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A COOLER NIGHT ON THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING...WITH 40S IN MOST AREAS. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL ON FRIDAY DUE TO 850 HPA TEMPS AROUND 10 TO 11 DEGREES
C AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...WITH VALLEY HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN SETTING UP WITH A STRONG UPPER SYSTEM
DROPPING OUT OF CANADA AND DRAWING MOISTURE FROM THE SUBTROPICS AS A
LEADING UPPER IMPULSE TRACKS AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
MEAN EASTERN NORTH AMERICAN UPPER TROUGH.  THE UPPER IMPULSE GOES
NEGATIVE TILT AND THE COMBINATION OF THE UPPER DYNAMICS...MOISTURE
AND LOW LEVEL FORCING...IS EXPECTED TO BRING A SOAKING RAIN TO THE
AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. COOLING BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT..ALONG WITH WEST LOW LEVEL FLOW...COULD RESULT IN RATHER
EXTENSIVE CLOUDS INTO THROUGH SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS SUNDAY WITH SOME
LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE. THERE SHOULD BE A
PERIOD OF RELATIVE CLEARING SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT IN
MOST OTHER AREAS.

ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK AROUND TH SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH AND REINFORCE THE COOLER AIR OVER
OUR REGION AROUND THE MONDAY TIME FRAME...WITH ANOTHER POTENTIAL
PERIOD OF SHOWERS.  ALTHOUGH THE TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO AROUND OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ONCE THE COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY...THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR LOOKS TO REMAIN WEST OF
THE REGION...MORE PROXIMATE TO THE UPPER LOW IN CANADA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S SATURDAY...BUT COOLER IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. THEN...HIGHS AROUND 60 TO MID 60S THROUGH MONDAY...50S
IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS EAST...MOISTURE...CLOUDS AND PATCHY LIGHT
RAIN WILL SLOWLY BUILD WEST AND NORTHWEST. MVFR CEILINGS HAVE BUILT
WEST INTO THE REGION...AND BASED ON SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS...THE
MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. VISIBILITIES WILL
BE VFR...MAYBE BRIEFLY MVFR IF SOME VERY PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AFFECTS
THE REGION...WITH VCSH AT KALB...KPSF AND KPOU WHERE PATCHY VERY
LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE.

MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AND INTO THIS
EVENING...WITH SOME PERIODS OF VFR CEILINGS ABOVE 3000 FEET DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AT KALB AND KGFL...WHERE THE LEAST
CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE. VCSH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AT KPSF AND KPOU.
BY EVENING...THE MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD LINGER BUT VISIBILITIES SHOULD
CONTINUE MAINLY VFR.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT LESS
THAN 10 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VARIABLE WINDS BY THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TODAY...ALONG WITH A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS. RH VALUES WILL ONLY DROP
TO 65 TO 70 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS. RH
VALUES WILL RECOVER TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH FOG AND DEW
FORMATION AND NEARLY CALM WINDS.

CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY BREAK FOR SUNSHINE ON THURSDAY WITH RH VALUES
DROPPING TO AROUND 60 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS OF 5 MPH OR LESS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A NEARBY UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
TODAY INTO TONIGHT...MAINLY FOR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
REGION. BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL WILL BE TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OR
LESS...AND THIS LOOKS TO HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS...WHICH HAVE BEEN RUNNING QUITE LOW LATELY DUE TO A LACK OF
RECENT RAINFALL.

A MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT ON SATURDAY. MOST AREAS LOOK TO SEE AT LEAST A HALF INCH OF
RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM.  THIS RAINFALL WILL NOT CAUSE ANY HYDROLOGIC
ISSUES...AND WILL BE BENEFICIAL TO THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS







000
FXUS61 KALY 011422
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1022 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE
REGION WILL ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS...THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN DOMINATE...ALLOWING FOR
CLEARING SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING GUSTY RAIN SHOWERS
AND COOLER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1020 AM EDT...A CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY
OVER SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS SYSTEM IS
PICKING UP MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND PRODUCING SHOWERS
OVER NEW ENGLAND IN AN EASTERLY FLOW. THESE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE
SLOWLY TRACKING NORTHWEST WITHIN THE FLOW AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW...AND HAVE MOVED INTO EASTERN NY...INCLUDING PARTS OF THE
CAPITAL REGION.

THE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MAINLY OUR EASTERN ZONES.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT...BUT WILL BE NOTICEABLE DUE TO
THE RECENT STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER. THE RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING
PROBABLY WON/T MAKE IT ANY FURTHER NORTH AND WEST THAN THE CAPITAL
REGION...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING A SHOWER THROUGHOUT THE
DAY ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.

IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF CLOUDS IN PLACE AND SFC OBS
SHOW A GOOD DEAL OF STRATUS AS WELL. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THESE
CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
ENTIRE DAY TODAY...AS THE UPPER LOW SLIDES EASTWARD TO OUR SOUTH
TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...KEEPING THE MOIST EASTERLY FLOW IN
PLACE.

WITH THE CLOUDS/PRECIP...HAVE SIDED ON THE COOLER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR VALLEY
AREAS /UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY DEPART TO OUR EAST TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS TO DIMINISH FROM
WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING...WITH JUST A LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE
OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND LATE TONIGHT. IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
CLOUDY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT ONCE THE CLOUDS FINALLY START TO THIN OUT...ESP FOR ANY
AREAS THAT SEE RAINFALL. OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY LOOK TO BE IN THE 50S.

MORNING CLOUDS WILL BREAK FOR SUNSHINE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AS
THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST OF CAPE COD...AND WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN
AT 500 HPA. HIGH TEMPS LOOK TO REACH WELL INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70
FOR VALLEY AREAS.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH
RIDGING IN PLACE ALOFT AND WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA.
SKIES WILL BE CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A COOLER NIGHT ON THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING...WITH 40S IN MOST AREAS. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL ON FRIDAY DUE TO 850 HPA TEMPS AROUND 10 TO 11 DEGREES
C AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...WITH VALLEY HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN SETTING UP WITH A STRONG UPPER SYSTEM
DROPPING OUT OF CANADA AND DRAWING MOISTURE FROM THE SUBTROPICS AS A
LEADING UPPER IMPULSE TRACKS AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
MEAN EASTERN NORTH AMERICAN UPPER TROUGH.  THE UPPER IMPULSE GOES
NEGATIVE TILT AND THE COMBINATION OF THE UPPER DYNAMICS...MOISTURE
AND LOW LEVEL FORCING...IS EXPECTED TO BRING A SOAKING RAIN TO THE
AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. COOLING BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT..ALONG WITH WEST LOW LEVEL FLOW...COULD RESULT IN RATHER
EXTENSIVE CLOUDS INTO THROUGH SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS SUNDAY WITH SOME
LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE. THERE SHOULD BE A
PERIOD OF RELATIVE CLEARING SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT IN
MOST OTHER AREAS.

ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK AROUND TH SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH AND REINFORCE THE COOLER AIR OVER
OUR REGION AROUND THE MONDAY TIME FRAME...WITH ANOTHER POTENTIAL
PERIOD OF SHOWERS.  ALTHOUGH THE TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO AROUND OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ONCE THE COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY...THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR LOOKS TO REMAIN WEST OF
THE REGION...MORE PROXIMATE TO THE UPPER LOW IN CANADA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S SATURDAY...BUT COOLER IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. THEN...HIGHS AROUND 60 TO MID 60S THROUGH MONDAY...50S
IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS EAST...MOISTURE...CLOUDS AND PATCHY LIGHT
RAIN WILL SLOWLY BUILD WEST AND NORTHWEST. MVFR CEILINGS HAVE BUILT
WEST INTO THE REGION...AND BASED ON SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS...THE
MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. VISIBILITIES WILL
BE VFR...MAYBE BRIEFLY MVFR IF SOME VERY PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AFFECTS
THE REGION...WITH VCSH AT KALB...KPSF AND KPOU WHERE PATCHY VERY
LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE.

MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AND INTO THIS
EVENING...WITH SOME PERIODS OF VFR CEILINGS ABOVE 3000 FEET DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AT KALB AND KGFL...WHERE THE LEAST
CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE. VCSH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AT KPSF AND KPOU.
BY EVENING...THE MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD LINGER BUT VISIBILITIES SHOULD
CONTINUE MAINLY VFR.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT LESS
THAN 10 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VARIABLE WINDS BY THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TODAY...ALONG WITH A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS. RH VALUES WILL ONLY DROP
TO 65 TO 70 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS. RH
VALUES WILL RECOVER TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH FOG AND DEW
FORMATION AND NEARLY CALM WINDS.

CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY BREAK FOR SUNSHINE ON THURSDAY WITH RH VALUES
DROPPING TO AROUND 60 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS OF 5 MPH OR LESS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A NEARBY UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
TODAY INTO TONIGHT...MAINLY FOR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
REGION. BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL WILL BE TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OR
LESS...AND THIS LOOKS TO HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS...WHICH HAVE BEEN RUNNING QUITE LOW LATELY DUE TO A LACK OF
RECENT RAINFALL.

A MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT ON SATURDAY. MOST AREAS LOOK TO SEE AT LEAST A HALF INCH OF
RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM.  THIS RAINFALL WILL NOT CAUSE ANY HYDROLOGIC
ISSUES...AND WILL BE BENEFICIAL TO THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS







000
FXUS61 KBOX 011404
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1004 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL...DAMP CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE INTO THURSDAY MORNING...WITH
MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED TODAY. DRY WEATHER RETURNS LATER
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE REGION.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
7 AM UPDATE...
TWO AREAS OF RAINFALL TO DISCUSS THIS MORNING. FOR CT AND THE CT
VALLEY OF MA/NH...TS A FAIRLY STATIONARY DEFORMATION AXIS WHICH
CONTINUES TO YIELD MODERATE TO POCKETS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS
AXIS WILL BEGIN A SLOW MIGRATION TO THE E THIS AFTERNOON. THE
OTHER IS CONTINUED MOISTURE FLUX ASSOCIATED WITH AN INVERTED TROF
ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE REGION WHICH CONTINUES TO YIELD MAINLY
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL. EACH OF THESE FEATURES REMAIN IN PLACE
AS UPPER LVL CUTOFF SLOWLY MEANDERS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
DAY. THEREFORE...A WET COOL FALL DAY TO BEGIN OCTOBER. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS HAVE ALREADY EXCEEDED A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH IN SOME
SPOTS WITHIN THE HEAVIER DEFORMATION BAND...BUT TOTAL AMOUNTS OF A
HALF INCH TO AN INCH STILL SEEMS REASONABLE...EXCEPT MAYBE SE MA
WHERE THE RAIN WILL LINGER WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT AND EVEN
DAYTIME TOMORROW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER PENNSYLVANIA MOVES EASTWARD OVER SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND TODAY. COMBINED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL
SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET...AN INVERTED TROUGH SHOULD DEVELOP JUST
WEST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL CREATE A DEEP LAYER OF
LIFT THAT WILL ALLOW RAIN TO BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW BRINGS IN PLENTY OF COOL
MOIST AIR IN OFF THE OCEAN AND PWATS ARE 125 TO 175 PERCENT OF
NORMAL FOR EARLY OCTOBER. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MUCH NEEDED STEADY
RAINFALL ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITH ROUGHLY HALF AN INCH TO AN
INCH OF RAIN EXPECTED IN MOST LOCATIONS. HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE WHERE BANDS OF HEAVIER RAIN SET UP. WHILE WE CAN/T
DETERMINE EXACTLY WHERE THESE BANDS WILL DEVELOP...THE BEST CHANCE
FOR HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOKS TO BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST MASS
WHERE RAIN WILL LAST THE LONGEST BEFORE THE LOW PULLS AWAY TO THE
EAST.

USED LOCALLY PRODUCED BIAS CORRECTED MOS FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY
WHICH WILL REMAIN COOL AROUND 60 DEGREES FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...STEADY RAIN WILL COME TO AN END SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST
AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE REGION.  RAIN IS LIKELY
TO CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN MA AND RI THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
CONTINUED EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE
ALLOWING FOR LOW CLOUDS...DRIZZLE...AND FOG TO REMAIN ACROSS THE
REGION.  LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE 50S.

THURSDAY...WILL START TO SEE SOME DRYING...PARTICULARLY IN THE WEST
AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN.  CAPE AND ISLANDS WILL BE LAST
TO LOSE THE MOISTURE BUT CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN BREAKING UP BY THE END
OF THE DAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN WITH HIGHS AROUND
60...EXCEPT FOR THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY WHERE THEY MAY CLIMB INTO THE
MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BIG PICTURE... ALASKA SHORTWAVE DIGS OVER THE WESTERN USA/CANADA AND
KICKS THE ESTABLISHED UPPER TROUGH EAST TO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
BRINGS A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE EASTERN USA WITH BELOW
NORMAL HEIGHTS WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN USA.

EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW...A CLOSED LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND MOVES OFF
THROUGH THE MARITIMES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

THE DAILIES...

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OVER NEW
ENGLAND. CROSS SECTIONS OF RH SHOW DRYING IN MOST LAYERS THURSDAY
NIGHT BUT THEN AN INCREASING LAYER OF MOISTURE BELOW 800 MB BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SUGGESTS CLEARING...BUT FOLLOWED BY
INCREASING LOW CLOUDS AGAIN DURING FRIDAY.  RH CHARTS FROM THE GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW CLOUD MOISTURE BEING PUSHED WEST ACROSS THE GULF OF
MAINE FROM THE DEPARTING COASTAL LOW...AND INTO SOUTHEAST NH/EASTERN
MASS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BY FRIDAY NIGHT THE SAME MODELS SHOW LIGHT
PCPN OVER THIS AREA...SUGGESTING SPRINKLES OR DRIZZLE.

WE WILL HAVE A DRY FORECAST DURING THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BUT
WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH
FOG/DRIZZLE AND IN EAST COASTAL AREAS A CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PCPN.

LIGHT EAST WINDS WILL LIMIT MIXING...AND TEMPS IN THIS SHALLOW LAYER
WILL SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE 60S...COOLEST NEAR THE EAST MASS COAST
AND WARMEST IN THE CT VALLEY.

SATURDAY... THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DEEPENS
AS IT MOVES IT.  THE TROUGH USES A 110 KNOT JET TO PUSH A COLD FRONT
EAST TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. TEMPERATURE PROFILES SHOW A STRONG THERMAL
GRADIENT ACROSS THE FRONT. THE DEEPENING OF THE TROUGH ALSO TURNS
THE UPPER FLOW OVER NEW ENGLAND MORE FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
DRAWING MOISTURE NORTH...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO
REACH 1.5 TO 1.6 INCHES. STABILITY PARAMETERS ARE LESS THAN
MARGINAL...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE 5C/KM OR LESS AND TOTALS ARE
LESS THAN 44.

FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE LIKELY POPS BUT SLIGHTLY SLOWER
THAN PREVIOUSLY. THIS SLOWER TIMING ALIGNS WITH SIMILAR TRENDS IN
THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH WINDSHIFT IN THE CT VALLEY 2 PM TO 8 PM AND
IN THE COASTAL PLAIN 8 PM TO MIDNIGHT.

SUNDAY-MONDAY-TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE MOVES NORTH OF OUR AREA
SUNDAY...BUT THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
CONTOUR HEIGHTS AT 500 MB ARE BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND BUT THEN
MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL DURING THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.  SUNDAY
AND MONDAY LOOK DRY WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS.  THE TROUGH AXIS
EJECTS NORTHEAST BY TUESDAY AND MAY SUPPORT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT
THAT TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN THE EAST AND MVFR IN THE CT VALLEY AND
PARTS OF SOUTHERN NH. THIS MAY SLOWLY IMPROVE TO A MORE WIDESPREAD
MVFR AT BEST...BUT SHOULD THEN LOWER TO IFR AGAIN WITH SUNSET.

TONIGHT...IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT. THIS
MAY SHOW SOME SLOW IMPROVEMENT FROM WEST TO EAST LATER IN THE
NIGHT WITH THE MOST IMPROVEMENT TOWARDS DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

THURSDAY...AREAS OF IFR /MAINLY IN THE EAST/ WILL IMPROVE TO VFR.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...VFR. AREAS OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN PATCHY FOG
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.  AREAS OF IFR CIGS MOVE WEST OFF THE OCEAN
INTO EAST COASTAL MASSACHUSETTS INCLUDING THE CAPE AND ISLANDS LATE
FRIDAY AND MORE LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY...IFR CIGS FROM THE WORCESTER HILLS EAST DURING THE
MORNING. VFR FARTHER WEST TO START THE DAY BUT LOWERING TO MVFR AND
SCATTERED IFR AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE IN THE DAY AND BRINGS
SHOWERS.  WIND SHIFTS FROM SOUTH DURING THE DAY TO WEST BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT LATE IN THE DAY AND EARLY AT NIGHT.

SUNDAY...VFR WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION WITH FAIR WEATHER.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE

PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY GUSTING
TO AROUND 25 KTS BY ABOUT MIDDAY TODAY. SEAS CONTINUE TO
INCREASE...PARTICULARLY ON THE NORTHEASTERN WATERS AND INTO BOSTON
HARBOR AND CAPE COD BAY. ADDED ALL THE WATERS EXCEPT FOR
NARRAGANSETT BAY TO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR BOTH WINDS AND
SEAS AND ALL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH
THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING 20 TO 25 KNOTS WILL
MAINTAIN 5 TO 9 FOOT SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS AND EXPOSED EASTERN
WATERS SUCH AS MASSACHUSETTS BAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE
NEEDED. FOG AND LOW CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE GULF OF MAINE MAY
CREATE POOR VSBYS FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY... LINGERING POOR VSBYS SATURDAY MORNING IN FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATER IN THE DAY AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES WITH SHOWERS.  SOUTH WINDS WILL GUST 25 TO 30 KNOTS
DURING THE DAY AND EVENING...SHIFTING TO WEST AFTER THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.  SEAS WILL CONTINUE AT 5 TO 8 FEET ON
THE OUTER WATERS AND OTHER EXPOSED WATERS.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS
LIKELY.

SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH A LITTLE BUT STILL ROUGH. SEAS WILL
LINGER AT 5 TO 7 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL GUST TO 25 KNOTS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ232.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ233-234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ230.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ231.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/RLG
NEAR TERM...DOODY/RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/RLG
MARINE...WTB/RLG



000
FXUS61 KBOX 011404
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1004 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL...DAMP CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE INTO THURSDAY MORNING...WITH
MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED TODAY. DRY WEATHER RETURNS LATER
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE REGION.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
7 AM UPDATE...
TWO AREAS OF RAINFALL TO DISCUSS THIS MORNING. FOR CT AND THE CT
VALLEY OF MA/NH...TS A FAIRLY STATIONARY DEFORMATION AXIS WHICH
CONTINUES TO YIELD MODERATE TO POCKETS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS
AXIS WILL BEGIN A SLOW MIGRATION TO THE E THIS AFTERNOON. THE
OTHER IS CONTINUED MOISTURE FLUX ASSOCIATED WITH AN INVERTED TROF
ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE REGION WHICH CONTINUES TO YIELD MAINLY
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL. EACH OF THESE FEATURES REMAIN IN PLACE
AS UPPER LVL CUTOFF SLOWLY MEANDERS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
DAY. THEREFORE...A WET COOL FALL DAY TO BEGIN OCTOBER. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS HAVE ALREADY EXCEEDED A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH IN SOME
SPOTS WITHIN THE HEAVIER DEFORMATION BAND...BUT TOTAL AMOUNTS OF A
HALF INCH TO AN INCH STILL SEEMS REASONABLE...EXCEPT MAYBE SE MA
WHERE THE RAIN WILL LINGER WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT AND EVEN
DAYTIME TOMORROW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER PENNSYLVANIA MOVES EASTWARD OVER SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND TODAY. COMBINED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL
SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET...AN INVERTED TROUGH SHOULD DEVELOP JUST
WEST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL CREATE A DEEP LAYER OF
LIFT THAT WILL ALLOW RAIN TO BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW BRINGS IN PLENTY OF COOL
MOIST AIR IN OFF THE OCEAN AND PWATS ARE 125 TO 175 PERCENT OF
NORMAL FOR EARLY OCTOBER. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MUCH NEEDED STEADY
RAINFALL ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITH ROUGHLY HALF AN INCH TO AN
INCH OF RAIN EXPECTED IN MOST LOCATIONS. HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE WHERE BANDS OF HEAVIER RAIN SET UP. WHILE WE CAN/T
DETERMINE EXACTLY WHERE THESE BANDS WILL DEVELOP...THE BEST CHANCE
FOR HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOKS TO BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST MASS
WHERE RAIN WILL LAST THE LONGEST BEFORE THE LOW PULLS AWAY TO THE
EAST.

USED LOCALLY PRODUCED BIAS CORRECTED MOS FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY
WHICH WILL REMAIN COOL AROUND 60 DEGREES FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...STEADY RAIN WILL COME TO AN END SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST
AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE REGION.  RAIN IS LIKELY
TO CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN MA AND RI THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
CONTINUED EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE
ALLOWING FOR LOW CLOUDS...DRIZZLE...AND FOG TO REMAIN ACROSS THE
REGION.  LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE 50S.

THURSDAY...WILL START TO SEE SOME DRYING...PARTICULARLY IN THE WEST
AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN.  CAPE AND ISLANDS WILL BE LAST
TO LOSE THE MOISTURE BUT CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN BREAKING UP BY THE END
OF THE DAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN WITH HIGHS AROUND
60...EXCEPT FOR THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY WHERE THEY MAY CLIMB INTO THE
MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BIG PICTURE... ALASKA SHORTWAVE DIGS OVER THE WESTERN USA/CANADA AND
KICKS THE ESTABLISHED UPPER TROUGH EAST TO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
BRINGS A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE EASTERN USA WITH BELOW
NORMAL HEIGHTS WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN USA.

EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW...A CLOSED LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND MOVES OFF
THROUGH THE MARITIMES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

THE DAILIES...

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OVER NEW
ENGLAND. CROSS SECTIONS OF RH SHOW DRYING IN MOST LAYERS THURSDAY
NIGHT BUT THEN AN INCREASING LAYER OF MOISTURE BELOW 800 MB BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SUGGESTS CLEARING...BUT FOLLOWED BY
INCREASING LOW CLOUDS AGAIN DURING FRIDAY.  RH CHARTS FROM THE GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW CLOUD MOISTURE BEING PUSHED WEST ACROSS THE GULF OF
MAINE FROM THE DEPARTING COASTAL LOW...AND INTO SOUTHEAST NH/EASTERN
MASS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BY FRIDAY NIGHT THE SAME MODELS SHOW LIGHT
PCPN OVER THIS AREA...SUGGESTING SPRINKLES OR DRIZZLE.

WE WILL HAVE A DRY FORECAST DURING THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BUT
WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH
FOG/DRIZZLE AND IN EAST COASTAL AREAS A CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PCPN.

LIGHT EAST WINDS WILL LIMIT MIXING...AND TEMPS IN THIS SHALLOW LAYER
WILL SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE 60S...COOLEST NEAR THE EAST MASS COAST
AND WARMEST IN THE CT VALLEY.

SATURDAY... THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DEEPENS
AS IT MOVES IT.  THE TROUGH USES A 110 KNOT JET TO PUSH A COLD FRONT
EAST TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. TEMPERATURE PROFILES SHOW A STRONG THERMAL
GRADIENT ACROSS THE FRONT. THE DEEPENING OF THE TROUGH ALSO TURNS
THE UPPER FLOW OVER NEW ENGLAND MORE FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
DRAWING MOISTURE NORTH...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO
REACH 1.5 TO 1.6 INCHES. STABILITY PARAMETERS ARE LESS THAN
MARGINAL...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE 5C/KM OR LESS AND TOTALS ARE
LESS THAN 44.

FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE LIKELY POPS BUT SLIGHTLY SLOWER
THAN PREVIOUSLY. THIS SLOWER TIMING ALIGNS WITH SIMILAR TRENDS IN
THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH WINDSHIFT IN THE CT VALLEY 2 PM TO 8 PM AND
IN THE COASTAL PLAIN 8 PM TO MIDNIGHT.

SUNDAY-MONDAY-TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE MOVES NORTH OF OUR AREA
SUNDAY...BUT THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
CONTOUR HEIGHTS AT 500 MB ARE BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND BUT THEN
MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL DURING THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.  SUNDAY
AND MONDAY LOOK DRY WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS.  THE TROUGH AXIS
EJECTS NORTHEAST BY TUESDAY AND MAY SUPPORT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT
THAT TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN THE EAST AND MVFR IN THE CT VALLEY AND
PARTS OF SOUTHERN NH. THIS MAY SLOWLY IMPROVE TO A MORE WIDESPREAD
MVFR AT BEST...BUT SHOULD THEN LOWER TO IFR AGAIN WITH SUNSET.

TONIGHT...IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT. THIS
MAY SHOW SOME SLOW IMPROVEMENT FROM WEST TO EAST LATER IN THE
NIGHT WITH THE MOST IMPROVEMENT TOWARDS DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

THURSDAY...AREAS OF IFR /MAINLY IN THE EAST/ WILL IMPROVE TO VFR.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...VFR. AREAS OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN PATCHY FOG
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.  AREAS OF IFR CIGS MOVE WEST OFF THE OCEAN
INTO EAST COASTAL MASSACHUSETTS INCLUDING THE CAPE AND ISLANDS LATE
FRIDAY AND MORE LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY...IFR CIGS FROM THE WORCESTER HILLS EAST DURING THE
MORNING. VFR FARTHER WEST TO START THE DAY BUT LOWERING TO MVFR AND
SCATTERED IFR AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE IN THE DAY AND BRINGS
SHOWERS.  WIND SHIFTS FROM SOUTH DURING THE DAY TO WEST BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT LATE IN THE DAY AND EARLY AT NIGHT.

SUNDAY...VFR WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION WITH FAIR WEATHER.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE

PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY GUSTING
TO AROUND 25 KTS BY ABOUT MIDDAY TODAY. SEAS CONTINUE TO
INCREASE...PARTICULARLY ON THE NORTHEASTERN WATERS AND INTO BOSTON
HARBOR AND CAPE COD BAY. ADDED ALL THE WATERS EXCEPT FOR
NARRAGANSETT BAY TO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR BOTH WINDS AND
SEAS AND ALL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH
THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING 20 TO 25 KNOTS WILL
MAINTAIN 5 TO 9 FOOT SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS AND EXPOSED EASTERN
WATERS SUCH AS MASSACHUSETTS BAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE
NEEDED. FOG AND LOW CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE GULF OF MAINE MAY
CREATE POOR VSBYS FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY... LINGERING POOR VSBYS SATURDAY MORNING IN FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATER IN THE DAY AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES WITH SHOWERS.  SOUTH WINDS WILL GUST 25 TO 30 KNOTS
DURING THE DAY AND EVENING...SHIFTING TO WEST AFTER THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.  SEAS WILL CONTINUE AT 5 TO 8 FEET ON
THE OUTER WATERS AND OTHER EXPOSED WATERS.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS
LIKELY.

SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH A LITTLE BUT STILL ROUGH. SEAS WILL
LINGER AT 5 TO 7 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL GUST TO 25 KNOTS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ232.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ233-234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ230.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ231.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/RLG
NEAR TERM...DOODY/RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/RLG
MARINE...WTB/RLG



000
FXUS61 KBOX 011404
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1004 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL...DAMP CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE INTO THURSDAY MORNING...WITH
MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED TODAY. DRY WEATHER RETURNS LATER
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE REGION.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
7 AM UPDATE...
TWO AREAS OF RAINFALL TO DISCUSS THIS MORNING. FOR CT AND THE CT
VALLEY OF MA/NH...TS A FAIRLY STATIONARY DEFORMATION AXIS WHICH
CONTINUES TO YIELD MODERATE TO POCKETS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS
AXIS WILL BEGIN A SLOW MIGRATION TO THE E THIS AFTERNOON. THE
OTHER IS CONTINUED MOISTURE FLUX ASSOCIATED WITH AN INVERTED TROF
ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE REGION WHICH CONTINUES TO YIELD MAINLY
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL. EACH OF THESE FEATURES REMAIN IN PLACE
AS UPPER LVL CUTOFF SLOWLY MEANDERS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
DAY. THEREFORE...A WET COOL FALL DAY TO BEGIN OCTOBER. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS HAVE ALREADY EXCEEDED A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH IN SOME
SPOTS WITHIN THE HEAVIER DEFORMATION BAND...BUT TOTAL AMOUNTS OF A
HALF INCH TO AN INCH STILL SEEMS REASONABLE...EXCEPT MAYBE SE MA
WHERE THE RAIN WILL LINGER WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT AND EVEN
DAYTIME TOMORROW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER PENNSYLVANIA MOVES EASTWARD OVER SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND TODAY. COMBINED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL
SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET...AN INVERTED TROUGH SHOULD DEVELOP JUST
WEST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL CREATE A DEEP LAYER OF
LIFT THAT WILL ALLOW RAIN TO BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW BRINGS IN PLENTY OF COOL
MOIST AIR IN OFF THE OCEAN AND PWATS ARE 125 TO 175 PERCENT OF
NORMAL FOR EARLY OCTOBER. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MUCH NEEDED STEADY
RAINFALL ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITH ROUGHLY HALF AN INCH TO AN
INCH OF RAIN EXPECTED IN MOST LOCATIONS. HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE WHERE BANDS OF HEAVIER RAIN SET UP. WHILE WE CAN/T
DETERMINE EXACTLY WHERE THESE BANDS WILL DEVELOP...THE BEST CHANCE
FOR HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOKS TO BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST MASS
WHERE RAIN WILL LAST THE LONGEST BEFORE THE LOW PULLS AWAY TO THE
EAST.

USED LOCALLY PRODUCED BIAS CORRECTED MOS FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY
WHICH WILL REMAIN COOL AROUND 60 DEGREES FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...STEADY RAIN WILL COME TO AN END SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST
AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE REGION.  RAIN IS LIKELY
TO CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN MA AND RI THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
CONTINUED EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE
ALLOWING FOR LOW CLOUDS...DRIZZLE...AND FOG TO REMAIN ACROSS THE
REGION.  LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE 50S.

THURSDAY...WILL START TO SEE SOME DRYING...PARTICULARLY IN THE WEST
AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN.  CAPE AND ISLANDS WILL BE LAST
TO LOSE THE MOISTURE BUT CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN BREAKING UP BY THE END
OF THE DAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN WITH HIGHS AROUND
60...EXCEPT FOR THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY WHERE THEY MAY CLIMB INTO THE
MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BIG PICTURE... ALASKA SHORTWAVE DIGS OVER THE WESTERN USA/CANADA AND
KICKS THE ESTABLISHED UPPER TROUGH EAST TO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
BRINGS A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE EASTERN USA WITH BELOW
NORMAL HEIGHTS WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN USA.

EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW...A CLOSED LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND MOVES OFF
THROUGH THE MARITIMES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

THE DAILIES...

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OVER NEW
ENGLAND. CROSS SECTIONS OF RH SHOW DRYING IN MOST LAYERS THURSDAY
NIGHT BUT THEN AN INCREASING LAYER OF MOISTURE BELOW 800 MB BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SUGGESTS CLEARING...BUT FOLLOWED BY
INCREASING LOW CLOUDS AGAIN DURING FRIDAY.  RH CHARTS FROM THE GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW CLOUD MOISTURE BEING PUSHED WEST ACROSS THE GULF OF
MAINE FROM THE DEPARTING COASTAL LOW...AND INTO SOUTHEAST NH/EASTERN
MASS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BY FRIDAY NIGHT THE SAME MODELS SHOW LIGHT
PCPN OVER THIS AREA...SUGGESTING SPRINKLES OR DRIZZLE.

WE WILL HAVE A DRY FORECAST DURING THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BUT
WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH
FOG/DRIZZLE AND IN EAST COASTAL AREAS A CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PCPN.

LIGHT EAST WINDS WILL LIMIT MIXING...AND TEMPS IN THIS SHALLOW LAYER
WILL SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE 60S...COOLEST NEAR THE EAST MASS COAST
AND WARMEST IN THE CT VALLEY.

SATURDAY... THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DEEPENS
AS IT MOVES IT.  THE TROUGH USES A 110 KNOT JET TO PUSH A COLD FRONT
EAST TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. TEMPERATURE PROFILES SHOW A STRONG THERMAL
GRADIENT ACROSS THE FRONT. THE DEEPENING OF THE TROUGH ALSO TURNS
THE UPPER FLOW OVER NEW ENGLAND MORE FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
DRAWING MOISTURE NORTH...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO
REACH 1.5 TO 1.6 INCHES. STABILITY PARAMETERS ARE LESS THAN
MARGINAL...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE 5C/KM OR LESS AND TOTALS ARE
LESS THAN 44.

FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE LIKELY POPS BUT SLIGHTLY SLOWER
THAN PREVIOUSLY. THIS SLOWER TIMING ALIGNS WITH SIMILAR TRENDS IN
THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH WINDSHIFT IN THE CT VALLEY 2 PM TO 8 PM AND
IN THE COASTAL PLAIN 8 PM TO MIDNIGHT.

SUNDAY-MONDAY-TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE MOVES NORTH OF OUR AREA
SUNDAY...BUT THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
CONTOUR HEIGHTS AT 500 MB ARE BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND BUT THEN
MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL DURING THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.  SUNDAY
AND MONDAY LOOK DRY WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS.  THE TROUGH AXIS
EJECTS NORTHEAST BY TUESDAY AND MAY SUPPORT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT
THAT TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN THE EAST AND MVFR IN THE CT VALLEY AND
PARTS OF SOUTHERN NH. THIS MAY SLOWLY IMPROVE TO A MORE WIDESPREAD
MVFR AT BEST...BUT SHOULD THEN LOWER TO IFR AGAIN WITH SUNSET.

TONIGHT...IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT. THIS
MAY SHOW SOME SLOW IMPROVEMENT FROM WEST TO EAST LATER IN THE
NIGHT WITH THE MOST IMPROVEMENT TOWARDS DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

THURSDAY...AREAS OF IFR /MAINLY IN THE EAST/ WILL IMPROVE TO VFR.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...VFR. AREAS OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN PATCHY FOG
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.  AREAS OF IFR CIGS MOVE WEST OFF THE OCEAN
INTO EAST COASTAL MASSACHUSETTS INCLUDING THE CAPE AND ISLANDS LATE
FRIDAY AND MORE LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY...IFR CIGS FROM THE WORCESTER HILLS EAST DURING THE
MORNING. VFR FARTHER WEST TO START THE DAY BUT LOWERING TO MVFR AND
SCATTERED IFR AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE IN THE DAY AND BRINGS
SHOWERS.  WIND SHIFTS FROM SOUTH DURING THE DAY TO WEST BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT LATE IN THE DAY AND EARLY AT NIGHT.

SUNDAY...VFR WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION WITH FAIR WEATHER.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE

PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY GUSTING
TO AROUND 25 KTS BY ABOUT MIDDAY TODAY. SEAS CONTINUE TO
INCREASE...PARTICULARLY ON THE NORTHEASTERN WATERS AND INTO BOSTON
HARBOR AND CAPE COD BAY. ADDED ALL THE WATERS EXCEPT FOR
NARRAGANSETT BAY TO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR BOTH WINDS AND
SEAS AND ALL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH
THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING 20 TO 25 KNOTS WILL
MAINTAIN 5 TO 9 FOOT SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS AND EXPOSED EASTERN
WATERS SUCH AS MASSACHUSETTS BAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE
NEEDED. FOG AND LOW CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE GULF OF MAINE MAY
CREATE POOR VSBYS FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY... LINGERING POOR VSBYS SATURDAY MORNING IN FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATER IN THE DAY AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES WITH SHOWERS.  SOUTH WINDS WILL GUST 25 TO 30 KNOTS
DURING THE DAY AND EVENING...SHIFTING TO WEST AFTER THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.  SEAS WILL CONTINUE AT 5 TO 8 FEET ON
THE OUTER WATERS AND OTHER EXPOSED WATERS.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS
LIKELY.

SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH A LITTLE BUT STILL ROUGH. SEAS WILL
LINGER AT 5 TO 7 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL GUST TO 25 KNOTS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ232.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ233-234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ230.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ231.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/RLG
NEAR TERM...DOODY/RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/RLG
MARINE...WTB/RLG



000
FXUS61 KBOX 011404
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1004 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL...DAMP CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE INTO THURSDAY MORNING...WITH
MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED TODAY. DRY WEATHER RETURNS LATER
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE REGION.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
7 AM UPDATE...
TWO AREAS OF RAINFALL TO DISCUSS THIS MORNING. FOR CT AND THE CT
VALLEY OF MA/NH...TS A FAIRLY STATIONARY DEFORMATION AXIS WHICH
CONTINUES TO YIELD MODERATE TO POCKETS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS
AXIS WILL BEGIN A SLOW MIGRATION TO THE E THIS AFTERNOON. THE
OTHER IS CONTINUED MOISTURE FLUX ASSOCIATED WITH AN INVERTED TROF
ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE REGION WHICH CONTINUES TO YIELD MAINLY
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL. EACH OF THESE FEATURES REMAIN IN PLACE
AS UPPER LVL CUTOFF SLOWLY MEANDERS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
DAY. THEREFORE...A WET COOL FALL DAY TO BEGIN OCTOBER. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS HAVE ALREADY EXCEEDED A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH IN SOME
SPOTS WITHIN THE HEAVIER DEFORMATION BAND...BUT TOTAL AMOUNTS OF A
HALF INCH TO AN INCH STILL SEEMS REASONABLE...EXCEPT MAYBE SE MA
WHERE THE RAIN WILL LINGER WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT AND EVEN
DAYTIME TOMORROW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER PENNSYLVANIA MOVES EASTWARD OVER SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND TODAY. COMBINED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL
SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET...AN INVERTED TROUGH SHOULD DEVELOP JUST
WEST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL CREATE A DEEP LAYER OF
LIFT THAT WILL ALLOW RAIN TO BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW BRINGS IN PLENTY OF COOL
MOIST AIR IN OFF THE OCEAN AND PWATS ARE 125 TO 175 PERCENT OF
NORMAL FOR EARLY OCTOBER. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MUCH NEEDED STEADY
RAINFALL ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITH ROUGHLY HALF AN INCH TO AN
INCH OF RAIN EXPECTED IN MOST LOCATIONS. HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE WHERE BANDS OF HEAVIER RAIN SET UP. WHILE WE CAN/T
DETERMINE EXACTLY WHERE THESE BANDS WILL DEVELOP...THE BEST CHANCE
FOR HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOKS TO BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST MASS
WHERE RAIN WILL LAST THE LONGEST BEFORE THE LOW PULLS AWAY TO THE
EAST.

USED LOCALLY PRODUCED BIAS CORRECTED MOS FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY
WHICH WILL REMAIN COOL AROUND 60 DEGREES FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...STEADY RAIN WILL COME TO AN END SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST
AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE REGION.  RAIN IS LIKELY
TO CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN MA AND RI THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
CONTINUED EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE
ALLOWING FOR LOW CLOUDS...DRIZZLE...AND FOG TO REMAIN ACROSS THE
REGION.  LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE 50S.

THURSDAY...WILL START TO SEE SOME DRYING...PARTICULARLY IN THE WEST
AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN.  CAPE AND ISLANDS WILL BE LAST
TO LOSE THE MOISTURE BUT CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN BREAKING UP BY THE END
OF THE DAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN WITH HIGHS AROUND
60...EXCEPT FOR THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY WHERE THEY MAY CLIMB INTO THE
MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BIG PICTURE... ALASKA SHORTWAVE DIGS OVER THE WESTERN USA/CANADA AND
KICKS THE ESTABLISHED UPPER TROUGH EAST TO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
BRINGS A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE EASTERN USA WITH BELOW
NORMAL HEIGHTS WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN USA.

EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW...A CLOSED LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND MOVES OFF
THROUGH THE MARITIMES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

THE DAILIES...

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OVER NEW
ENGLAND. CROSS SECTIONS OF RH SHOW DRYING IN MOST LAYERS THURSDAY
NIGHT BUT THEN AN INCREASING LAYER OF MOISTURE BELOW 800 MB BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SUGGESTS CLEARING...BUT FOLLOWED BY
INCREASING LOW CLOUDS AGAIN DURING FRIDAY.  RH CHARTS FROM THE GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW CLOUD MOISTURE BEING PUSHED WEST ACROSS THE GULF OF
MAINE FROM THE DEPARTING COASTAL LOW...AND INTO SOUTHEAST NH/EASTERN
MASS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BY FRIDAY NIGHT THE SAME MODELS SHOW LIGHT
PCPN OVER THIS AREA...SUGGESTING SPRINKLES OR DRIZZLE.

WE WILL HAVE A DRY FORECAST DURING THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BUT
WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH
FOG/DRIZZLE AND IN EAST COASTAL AREAS A CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PCPN.

LIGHT EAST WINDS WILL LIMIT MIXING...AND TEMPS IN THIS SHALLOW LAYER
WILL SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE 60S...COOLEST NEAR THE EAST MASS COAST
AND WARMEST IN THE CT VALLEY.

SATURDAY... THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DEEPENS
AS IT MOVES IT.  THE TROUGH USES A 110 KNOT JET TO PUSH A COLD FRONT
EAST TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. TEMPERATURE PROFILES SHOW A STRONG THERMAL
GRADIENT ACROSS THE FRONT. THE DEEPENING OF THE TROUGH ALSO TURNS
THE UPPER FLOW OVER NEW ENGLAND MORE FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
DRAWING MOISTURE NORTH...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO
REACH 1.5 TO 1.6 INCHES. STABILITY PARAMETERS ARE LESS THAN
MARGINAL...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE 5C/KM OR LESS AND TOTALS ARE
LESS THAN 44.

FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE LIKELY POPS BUT SLIGHTLY SLOWER
THAN PREVIOUSLY. THIS SLOWER TIMING ALIGNS WITH SIMILAR TRENDS IN
THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH WINDSHIFT IN THE CT VALLEY 2 PM TO 8 PM AND
IN THE COASTAL PLAIN 8 PM TO MIDNIGHT.

SUNDAY-MONDAY-TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE MOVES NORTH OF OUR AREA
SUNDAY...BUT THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
CONTOUR HEIGHTS AT 500 MB ARE BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND BUT THEN
MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL DURING THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.  SUNDAY
AND MONDAY LOOK DRY WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS.  THE TROUGH AXIS
EJECTS NORTHEAST BY TUESDAY AND MAY SUPPORT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT
THAT TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN THE EAST AND MVFR IN THE CT VALLEY AND
PARTS OF SOUTHERN NH. THIS MAY SLOWLY IMPROVE TO A MORE WIDESPREAD
MVFR AT BEST...BUT SHOULD THEN LOWER TO IFR AGAIN WITH SUNSET.

TONIGHT...IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT. THIS
MAY SHOW SOME SLOW IMPROVEMENT FROM WEST TO EAST LATER IN THE
NIGHT WITH THE MOST IMPROVEMENT TOWARDS DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

THURSDAY...AREAS OF IFR /MAINLY IN THE EAST/ WILL IMPROVE TO VFR.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...VFR. AREAS OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN PATCHY FOG
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.  AREAS OF IFR CIGS MOVE WEST OFF THE OCEAN
INTO EAST COASTAL MASSACHUSETTS INCLUDING THE CAPE AND ISLANDS LATE
FRIDAY AND MORE LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY...IFR CIGS FROM THE WORCESTER HILLS EAST DURING THE
MORNING. VFR FARTHER WEST TO START THE DAY BUT LOWERING TO MVFR AND
SCATTERED IFR AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE IN THE DAY AND BRINGS
SHOWERS.  WIND SHIFTS FROM SOUTH DURING THE DAY TO WEST BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT LATE IN THE DAY AND EARLY AT NIGHT.

SUNDAY...VFR WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION WITH FAIR WEATHER.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE

PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY GUSTING
TO AROUND 25 KTS BY ABOUT MIDDAY TODAY. SEAS CONTINUE TO
INCREASE...PARTICULARLY ON THE NORTHEASTERN WATERS AND INTO BOSTON
HARBOR AND CAPE COD BAY. ADDED ALL THE WATERS EXCEPT FOR
NARRAGANSETT BAY TO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR BOTH WINDS AND
SEAS AND ALL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH
THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING 20 TO 25 KNOTS WILL
MAINTAIN 5 TO 9 FOOT SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS AND EXPOSED EASTERN
WATERS SUCH AS MASSACHUSETTS BAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE
NEEDED. FOG AND LOW CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE GULF OF MAINE MAY
CREATE POOR VSBYS FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY... LINGERING POOR VSBYS SATURDAY MORNING IN FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATER IN THE DAY AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES WITH SHOWERS.  SOUTH WINDS WILL GUST 25 TO 30 KNOTS
DURING THE DAY AND EVENING...SHIFTING TO WEST AFTER THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.  SEAS WILL CONTINUE AT 5 TO 8 FEET ON
THE OUTER WATERS AND OTHER EXPOSED WATERS.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS
LIKELY.

SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH A LITTLE BUT STILL ROUGH. SEAS WILL
LINGER AT 5 TO 7 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL GUST TO 25 KNOTS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ232.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ233-234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ230.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ231.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/RLG
NEAR TERM...DOODY/RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/RLG
MARINE...WTB/RLG



000
FXUS61 KOKX 011142
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
742 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE TO END THE
WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ON SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY POTENTIALLY
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN CT THIS
MORNING AS VORT MAX REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND A PERSISTENT NELY SURFACE FLOW KEEPS THE LOWER LEVELS
VERY MOIST. EXPECTING THE PCPN TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST
MID MORNING...SO WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED POPS UP TO CATEGORICAL TO
REFLECT CONFIDENCE.

ATTENTION FOR THE DAY REMAINS FOCUSED ON THE PROGRESSION OF A CLOSED
UPPER LVL LOW CURRENTLY NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER WESTERN
PA. GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONGST THE 00Z MODEL SOLUTIONS IS FOR THE LOW
TO TREK ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY...LINGERING THOUGH UNTIL
THURSDAY. NE FLOW KEEPS THE LOWER LVLS VERY MOIST...SO DESPITE THE
LACK OF ANY REAL SFC LIFT...STRONG FORCING ALOFT SHOULD WORK TO
PRODUCE SCT-NUM SHOWERS. EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SHOWERS IS THE
POSSIBILITY FOR MODERATE TO EVEN HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH THE
MESO MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST WILL OCCUR OVER EASTERN LONG ISLAND
AND SE CT...CORRESPONDING TO THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION OF THE
STRONGEST FORCING/VORT MAX BY THIS AFTN/EVENING. SO FOR POPS...AM
KEEPING LIKELY WORDING IN FOR AREAS GENERALLY EAST OF NYC
METRO...WITH CHC TO THE WEST.

A MIX OF CLOUD COVER...PCPN AND NE FLOW WILL RESULT IN TEMPS RESTING
RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR HIGHS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
PCPN CONTINUES THIS EVENING...WITH THE MAIN QUESTION ON THE ENDING
TIME. UPPER LEVEL LOW PIVOTS EAST...WITH THE MAIN FORCING GENERALLY
RESIDING OVER EASTERN AREAS OF THE CWA FOR THE NIGHT. AS
SUCH...BEGAN TO TAPER POPS BACK FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
NIGHT...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EVEN POSSIBLE BY 06Z WEST OF NYC.
CONFIDENCE RESTS WITH THE PCPN CONTINUING THOUGH OVER EASTERN LI/SE
CT. HOWEVER...WITH THE BULLS EYE OF MAIN FORCING MAINLY
OFFSHORE...SIDING MORE WITH PCPN BEING ON THE LIGHTER SIDE. 00Z NAM
AND ECMWF DO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS OVER THE
FAR EASTERN REACHES OF THE CWA...BUT WILL WANT TO SEE THE TREND FOR
THE DAY BEFORE SIDING WITH THE HEAVIER AMTS. LIGHT PCPN LINGERS JUST
OFFSHORE THEN DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...TAPERING OFF LATE IN THE DAY
AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW FINALLY EXITS THE REGION...BEING REPLACED
WITH RIDGING ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH FRI EVENING. THE CFP
AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL ARE STILL LINED UP FOR LATE FRI NIGHT INTO
SAT. THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THIS TIMING. POP HAS
BEEN INCREASED TO CAT FOR SAT...AND LIKELY POP ALSO CONTINUES INTO
EARLY SAT EVENING ACROSS SRN CT AND LONG ISLAND.

SUNDAY WILL BE DRY AS ALL OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE SHUNTED OFF TO THE
EAST. THEN RAIN CHANCES SHOULD RETURN FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING...MAINLY MON INTO MON NIGHT.

FOR HIGHS...BOTH FRI/SAT SHOULD SEE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S...THEN A
COOLER DAY ON SUNDAY WITH ONLY LOWER/MID 60S. SLIGHT MODERATION
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH...MAINLY 65-70. LOWS SAT
NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT DO NOT LOOK TO BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
FROST CONCERNS.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PASSES OVER THE REGION TODAY AS A VERY MOIST
LOW LEVEL NE FLOW PREVAILS AT THE SURFACE. THIS RESULTS IN
MARGINAL VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF FCST PERIOD...THOUGH AREAS
OF IFR ARE LIKELY ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING AND TONIGHT.

LIGHT RAIN WITH A FEW EMBEDDED SHOWERS FOR LONG ISLAND AND
SOUTHERN CT INTO THIS EVENING.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE PERSISTENT NNE SFC FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AN OCNL GUST INTO THE UPPER TEENS FOR THE NY METRO EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON. GUSTS NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAFS DUE TO THE INFREQUENT
NATURE EXPECTED.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: UN-FORECAST FLUCTUATIONS IN CIG CATEGORY
EXPECT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FCST.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: UN-FORECAST FLUCTUATIONS IN CIG CATEGORY
EXPECT THROUGH THE PERIOD. IFR MAY LAST BEYOND 13Z.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FCST THOUGH DIRECTION MAY SWING 20 DEGREES RIGHT
OF 040 MAGNETIC AT TIMES.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: UN-FORECAST FLUCTUATIONS IN CIG CATEGORY
EXPECT THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN VFR FOR
THE AFTN.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FCST.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES  SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: UN-FORECAST FLUCTUATIONS IN CIG CATEGORY
EXPECT THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN VFR FOR
THE AFTN.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FCST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: UN-FORECAST FLUCTUATIONS IN CIG CATEGORY
EXPECT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: UN-FORECAST FLUCTUATIONS IN CIG CATEGORY
EXPECT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.THU...MVFR CIGS IN THE AM...THEN VFR. NE WINDS 10-15 KT.
.FRI...VFR. LGT SE WND.
.SAT...RAIN - MVFR OR LOWER AT TIMES. SE WIND 10-15G20 KT.
.SUN...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN WATERS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
INCREASING NE FLOW. GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS
AFTN...WHILE SEAS GENERALLY BETWEEN 5 AND 7 FT ARE EXPECTED. ON
THE NON OCEAN WATERS...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS TODAY. COULD SEE OCNL
GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS IN THE BAYS AROUND LONG ISLAND AND EASTERN LONG
ISLAND SOUND...WITH THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME MORE PERSISTENT
TONIGHT. AS SUCH...A SCA MIGHT NEED TO BE ISSUED FOR THESE WATERS
TONIGHT/THURSDAY. THE REMAINING WATERS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA THROUGH THURSDAY. HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA FOR THE EASTERN
TWO-THIRDS OF THE OCEAN WATERS UNTIL THURS EVENING...WHILE THE
SCA CONTINUES FOR THE WESTERN PORTIONS JUST THROUGH TONIGHT.

FOR THU NIGHT AND BEYOND...HAZARDOUS OCEAN SEAS ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE FROM THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING...THEY SHOULD FALL BLW 5 FT
LATE FRI INTO FRI NIGHT...AND ONCE AGAIN RAMP UP THRU THE WEEKEND.
ELSEWHERE...THE ERN SOUND/BAYS COULD SEE SCA CONDS IN POST-FRONTAL W
FLOW ON SUNDAY. SCA CONDS ARE POSSIBLE ALL WATERS AGAIN ON MON AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SYS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL RESULTING IN HYDROLOGIC ISSUES IS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

RAINFALL TOTALS TODAY ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND CONNECTICUT WILL
RANGE FROM A QUARTER OF AN INCH TO THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH.
AREAS TO THE WEST WILL GENERALLY BE A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS.

QPF OF 3/4 TO 1 INCH LIKELY NW OF NYC ON SAT WITH COLD FRONT...AND
1/2 TO 3/4 INCH FARTHER EAST.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/SEARS
NEAR TERM...SEARS
SHORT TERM...SEARS
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...TONGUE
MARINE...GOODMAN/SEARS
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/SEARS








000
FXUS61 KALY 011126
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
726 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE
REGION WILL ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS...THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN DOMINATE...ALLOWING FOR
CLEARING SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING GUSTY RAIN SHOWERS
AND COOLER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 636 AM EDT...A CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY OVER
EASTERN PA AND IS MOVING EASTWARD TOWARDS NEW JERSEY. CYCLONIC
FLOW AROUND THIS SYSTEM IS PICKING UP MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN AND PRODUCING SHOWERS OVER NEW ENGLAND. THESE LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS ARE SLOWLY TRACKING NORTHWEST WITHIN THE FLOW AROUND THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW...AND ARE STARTING TO REACH INTO EASTERN
NY...INCLUDING PARTS OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

THE 08Z 3KM HRRR GUIDANCE AND LATEST RUN OF OUR LOCAL HIRES WRF
SHOW THE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MAINLY OUR EASTERN
ZONES. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT...BUT WILL BE NOTICEABLE
DUE TO THE RECENT STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER. THE RAIN SHOWERS THIS
MORNING PROBABLY WON/T MAKE IT ANY FURTHER NORTH AND WEST THAN
THE CAPITAL REGION...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING A SHOWER
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.

IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF CLOUDS IN PLACE AND SFC OBS
SHOW A GOOD DEAL OF STRATUS AS WELL. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THESE
CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
ENTIRE DAY TODAY...AS THE UPPER LOW SLIDES EASTWARD TO OUR SOUTH
TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...KEEPING THE MOIST EASTERLY FLOW IN
PLACE.

WITH THE CLOUDS/PRECIP...HAVE SIDED ON THE COOLER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR VALLEY
AREAS /UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY DEPART TO OUR EAST TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS TO DIMINISH FROM
WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING...WITH JUST A LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE
OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND LATE TONIGHT. IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
CLOUDY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT ONCE THE CLOUDS FINALLY START TO THIN OUT...ESP FOR ANY
AREAS THAT SEE RAINFALL. OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY LOOK TO BE IN THE 50S.

MORNING CLOUDS WILL BREAK FOR SUNSHINE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AS
THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST OF CAPE COD...AND WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN
AT 500 HPA. HIGH TEMPS LOOK TO REACH WELL INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70
FOR VALLEY AREAS.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH
RIDGING IN PLACE ALOFT AND WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA.
SKIES WILL BE CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A COOLER NIGHT ON THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING...WITH 40S IN MOST AREAS. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL ON FRIDAY DUE TO 850 HPA TEMPS AROUND 10 TO 11 DEGREES
C AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...WITH VALLEY HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN SETTING UP WITH A STRONG UPPER SYSTEM
DROPPING OUT OF CANADA AND DRAWING MOISTURE FROM THE SUBTROPICS AS A
LEADING UPPER IMPULSE TRACKS AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
MEAN EASTERN NORTH AMERICAN UPPER TROUGH.  THE UPPER IMPULSE GOES
NEGATIVE TILT AND THE COMBINATION OF THE UPPER DYNAMICS...MOISTURE
AND LOW LEVEL FORCING...IS EXPECTED TO BRING A SOAKING RAIN TO THE
AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. COOLING BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT..ALONG WITH WEST LOW LEVEL FLOW...COULD RESULT IN RATHER
EXTENSIVE CLOUDS INTO THROUGH SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS SUNDAY WITH SOME
LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE. THERE SHOULD BE A
PERIOD OF RELATIVE CLEARING SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT IN
MOST OTHER AREAS.

ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK AROUND TH SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH AND REINFORCE THE COOLER AIR OVER
OUR REGION AROUND THE MONDAY TIME FRAME...WITH ANOTHER POTENTIAL
PERIOD OF SHOWERS.  ALTHOUGH THE TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO AROUND OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ONCE THE COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY...THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR LOOKS TO REMAIN WEST OF
THE REGION...MORE PROXIMATE TO THE UPPER LOW IN CANADA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S SATURDAY...BUT COOLER IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. THEN...HIGHS AROUND 60 TO MID 60S THROUGH MONDAY...50S
IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS EAST...MOISTURE...CLOUDS AND PATCHY LIGHT
RAIN WILL SLOWLY BUILD WEST AND NORTHWEST. MVFR CEILINGS HAVE BUILT
WEST INTO THE REGION...AND BASED ON SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS...THE
MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. VISIBILITIES WILL
BE VFR...MAYBE BRIEFLY MVFR IF SOME VERY PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AFFECTS
THE REGION...WITH VCSH AT KALB...KPSF AND KPOU WHERE PATCHY VERY
LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE.

MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AND INTO THIS
EVENING...WITH SOME PERIODS OF VFR CEILINGS ABOVE 3000 FEET DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AT KALB AND KGFL...WHERE THE LEAST
CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE. VCSH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AT KPSF AND KPOU.
BY EVENING...THE MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD LINGER BUT VISIBILITIES SHOULD
CONTINUE MAINLY VFR.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT LESS
THAN 10 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VARIABLE WINDS BY THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TODAY...ALONG WITH A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS. RH VALUES WILL ONLY DROP
TO 65 TO 70 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS. RH
VALUES WILL RECOVER TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH FOG AND DEW
FORMATION AND NEARLY CALM WINDS.

CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY BREAK FOR SUNSHINE ON THURSDAY WITH RH VALUES
DROPPING TO AROUND 60 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS OF 5 MPH OR LESS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A NEARBY UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
TODAY INTO TONIGHT...MAINLY FOR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
REGION. BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL WILL BE TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OR
LESS...AND THIS LOOKS TO HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS...WHICH HAVE BEEN RUNNING QUITE LOW LATELY DUE TO A LACK OF
RECENT RAINFALL.

A MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT ON SATURDAY. MOST AREAS LOOK TO SEE AT LEAST A HALF INCH OF
RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM.  THIS RAINFALL WILL NOT CAUSE ANY HYDROLOGIC
ISSUES...AND WILL BE BENEFICIAL TO THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS








000
FXUS61 KALY 011126
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
726 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE
REGION WILL ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS...THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN DOMINATE...ALLOWING FOR
CLEARING SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING GUSTY RAIN SHOWERS
AND COOLER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 636 AM EDT...A CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY OVER
EASTERN PA AND IS MOVING EASTWARD TOWARDS NEW JERSEY. CYCLONIC
FLOW AROUND THIS SYSTEM IS PICKING UP MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN AND PRODUCING SHOWERS OVER NEW ENGLAND. THESE LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS ARE SLOWLY TRACKING NORTHWEST WITHIN THE FLOW AROUND THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW...AND ARE STARTING TO REACH INTO EASTERN
NY...INCLUDING PARTS OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

THE 08Z 3KM HRRR GUIDANCE AND LATEST RUN OF OUR LOCAL HIRES WRF
SHOW THE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MAINLY OUR EASTERN
ZONES. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT...BUT WILL BE NOTICEABLE
DUE TO THE RECENT STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER. THE RAIN SHOWERS THIS
MORNING PROBABLY WON/T MAKE IT ANY FURTHER NORTH AND WEST THAN
THE CAPITAL REGION...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING A SHOWER
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.

IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF CLOUDS IN PLACE AND SFC OBS
SHOW A GOOD DEAL OF STRATUS AS WELL. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THESE
CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
ENTIRE DAY TODAY...AS THE UPPER LOW SLIDES EASTWARD TO OUR SOUTH
TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...KEEPING THE MOIST EASTERLY FLOW IN
PLACE.

WITH THE CLOUDS/PRECIP...HAVE SIDED ON THE COOLER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR VALLEY
AREAS /UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY DEPART TO OUR EAST TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS TO DIMINISH FROM
WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING...WITH JUST A LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE
OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND LATE TONIGHT. IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
CLOUDY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT ONCE THE CLOUDS FINALLY START TO THIN OUT...ESP FOR ANY
AREAS THAT SEE RAINFALL. OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY LOOK TO BE IN THE 50S.

MORNING CLOUDS WILL BREAK FOR SUNSHINE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AS
THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST OF CAPE COD...AND WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN
AT 500 HPA. HIGH TEMPS LOOK TO REACH WELL INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70
FOR VALLEY AREAS.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH
RIDGING IN PLACE ALOFT AND WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA.
SKIES WILL BE CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A COOLER NIGHT ON THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING...WITH 40S IN MOST AREAS. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL ON FRIDAY DUE TO 850 HPA TEMPS AROUND 10 TO 11 DEGREES
C AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...WITH VALLEY HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN SETTING UP WITH A STRONG UPPER SYSTEM
DROPPING OUT OF CANADA AND DRAWING MOISTURE FROM THE SUBTROPICS AS A
LEADING UPPER IMPULSE TRACKS AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
MEAN EASTERN NORTH AMERICAN UPPER TROUGH.  THE UPPER IMPULSE GOES
NEGATIVE TILT AND THE COMBINATION OF THE UPPER DYNAMICS...MOISTURE
AND LOW LEVEL FORCING...IS EXPECTED TO BRING A SOAKING RAIN TO THE
AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. COOLING BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT..ALONG WITH WEST LOW LEVEL FLOW...COULD RESULT IN RATHER
EXTENSIVE CLOUDS INTO THROUGH SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS SUNDAY WITH SOME
LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE. THERE SHOULD BE A
PERIOD OF RELATIVE CLEARING SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT IN
MOST OTHER AREAS.

ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK AROUND TH SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH AND REINFORCE THE COOLER AIR OVER
OUR REGION AROUND THE MONDAY TIME FRAME...WITH ANOTHER POTENTIAL
PERIOD OF SHOWERS.  ALTHOUGH THE TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO AROUND OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ONCE THE COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY...THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR LOOKS TO REMAIN WEST OF
THE REGION...MORE PROXIMATE TO THE UPPER LOW IN CANADA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S SATURDAY...BUT COOLER IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. THEN...HIGHS AROUND 60 TO MID 60S THROUGH MONDAY...50S
IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS EAST...MOISTURE...CLOUDS AND PATCHY LIGHT
RAIN WILL SLOWLY BUILD WEST AND NORTHWEST. MVFR CEILINGS HAVE BUILT
WEST INTO THE REGION...AND BASED ON SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS...THE
MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. VISIBILITIES WILL
BE VFR...MAYBE BRIEFLY MVFR IF SOME VERY PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AFFECTS
THE REGION...WITH VCSH AT KALB...KPSF AND KPOU WHERE PATCHY VERY
LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE.

MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AND INTO THIS
EVENING...WITH SOME PERIODS OF VFR CEILINGS ABOVE 3000 FEET DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AT KALB AND KGFL...WHERE THE LEAST
CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE. VCSH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AT KPSF AND KPOU.
BY EVENING...THE MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD LINGER BUT VISIBILITIES SHOULD
CONTINUE MAINLY VFR.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT LESS
THAN 10 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VARIABLE WINDS BY THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TODAY...ALONG WITH A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS. RH VALUES WILL ONLY DROP
TO 65 TO 70 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS. RH
VALUES WILL RECOVER TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH FOG AND DEW
FORMATION AND NEARLY CALM WINDS.

CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY BREAK FOR SUNSHINE ON THURSDAY WITH RH VALUES
DROPPING TO AROUND 60 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS OF 5 MPH OR LESS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A NEARBY UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
TODAY INTO TONIGHT...MAINLY FOR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
REGION. BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL WILL BE TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OR
LESS...AND THIS LOOKS TO HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS...WHICH HAVE BEEN RUNNING QUITE LOW LATELY DUE TO A LACK OF
RECENT RAINFALL.

A MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT ON SATURDAY. MOST AREAS LOOK TO SEE AT LEAST A HALF INCH OF
RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM.  THIS RAINFALL WILL NOT CAUSE ANY HYDROLOGIC
ISSUES...AND WILL BE BENEFICIAL TO THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS







000
FXUS61 KBOX 011054
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
654 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL...DAMP CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE INTO THURSDAY MORNING...WITH
MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED TODAY. DRY WEATHER RETURNS LATER
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE REGION.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

7 AM UPDATE...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE MOVING TOWARD NEW ENGLAND WITH CORE
MOVING OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. BANDS OF SHOWERS ROTATING
AROUND THE CENTER OF THIS LOW ARE MOVING SE TO NW ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. AS THE LOW SHIFTS FARTHER EAST TODAY THIS MOVEMENT
SHOULD BECOME EAST TO WEST. WE HAVE EXPANDED THE AREA OF LIKELY
POPS AND MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS. OTHERWISE...CONTINUE THE
WET FORECAST FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER PENNSYLVANIA MOVES EASTWARD OVER SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND TODAY. COMBINED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL
SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET...AN INVERTED TROUGH SHOULD DEVELOP JUST
WEST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL CREATE A DEEP LAYER OF
LIFT THAT WILL ALLOW RAIN TO BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW BRINGS IN PLENTY OF COOL
MOIST AIR IN OFF THE OCEAN AND PWATS ARE 125 TO 175 PERCENT OF
NORMAL FOR EARLY OCTOBER. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MUCH NEEDED STEADY
RAINFALL ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITH ROUGHLY HALF AN INCH TO AN
INCH OF RAIN EXPECTED IN MOST LOCATIONS. HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE WHERE BANDS OF HEAVIER RAIN SET UP. WHILE WE CAN/T
DETERMINE EXACTLY WHERE THESE BANDS WILL DEVELOP...THE BEST CHANCE
FOR HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOKS TO BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST MASS
WHERE RAIN WILL LAST THE LONGEST BEFORE THE LOW PULLS AWAY TO THE
EAST.

USED LOCALLY PRODUCED BIAS CORRECTED MOS FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY
WHICH WILL REMAIN COOL AROUND 60 DEGREES FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...STEADY RAIN WILL COME TO AN END SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST
AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE REGION.  RAIN IS LIKELY
TO CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN MA AND RI THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
CONTINUED EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE
ALLOWING FOR LOW CLOUDS...DRIZZLE...AND FOG TO REMAIN ACROSS THE
REGION.  LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE 50S.

THURSDAY...WILL START TO SEE SOME DRYING...PARTICULARLY IN THE WEST
AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN.  CAPE AND ISLANDS WILL BE LAST
TO LOSE THE MOISTURE BUT CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN BREAKING UP BY THE END
OF THE DAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN WITH HIGHS AROUND
60...EXCEPT FOR THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY WHERE THEY MAY CLIMB INTO THE
MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BIG PICTURE... ALASKA SHORTWAVE DIGS OVER THE WESTERN USA/CANADA AND
KICKS THE ESTABLISHED UPPER TROUGH EAST TO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
BRINGS A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE EASTERN USA WITH BELOW
NORMAL HEIGHTS WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN USA.

EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW...A CLOSED LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND MOVES OFF
THROUGH THE MARITIMES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

THE DAILIES...

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OVER NEW
ENGLAND. CROSS SECTIONS OF RH SHOW DRYING IN MOST LAYERS THURSDAY
NIGHT BUT THEN AN INCREASING LAYER OF MOISTURE BELOW 800 MB BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SUGGESTS CLEARING...BUT FOLLOWED BY
INCREASING LOW CLOUDS AGAIN DURING FRIDAY.  RH CHARTS FROM THE GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW CLOUD MOISTURE BEING PUSHED WEST ACROSS THE GULF OF
MAINE FROM THE DEPARTING COASTAL LOW...AND INTO SOUTHEAST NH/EASTERN
MASS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BY FRIDAY NIGHT THE SAME MODELS SHOW LIGHT
PCPN OVER THIS AREA...SUGGESTING SPRINKLES OR DRIZZLE.

WE WILL HAVE A DRY FORECAST DURING THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BUT
WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH
FOG/DRIZZLE AND IN EAST COASTAL AREAS A CHANCE FOR MEASUREABLE PCPN.

LIGHT EAST WINDS WILL LIMIT MIXING...AND TEMPS IN THIS SHALLOW LAYER
WILL SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE 60S...COOLEST NEAR THE EAST MASS COAST
AND WARMEST IN THE CT VALLEY.

SATURDAY... THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DEEPENS
AS IT MOVES IT.  THE TROUGH USES A 110 KNOT JET TO PUSH A COLD FRONT
EAST TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. TEMPERATURE PROFILES SHOW A STRONG THERMAL
GRADIANT ACROSS THE FRONT. THE DEEPENING OF THE TROUGH ALSO TURNS
THE UPPER FLOW OVER NEW ENGLAND MORE FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
DRAWING MOISTURE NORTH...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO
REACH 1.5 TO 1.6 INCHES.  STABILITY PARAMETERS ARE LESS THAN
MARGINAL...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE 5C/KM OR LESS AND TOTALS ARE
LESS THAN 44.

FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE LIKELY POPS BUT SLIGHTLY SLOWER
THAN PREVIOUSLY. THIS SLOWER TIMING ALIGNS WITH SIMILAR TRENDS IN
THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH WINDSHIFT IN THE CT VALLEY 2 PM TO 8 PM AND
IN THE COASTAL PLAIN 8 PM TO MIDNIGHT.

SUNDAY-MONDAY-TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE MOVES NORTH OF OUR AREA
SUNDAY...BUT THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
CONTOUR HEIGHTS AT 500 MB ARE BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND BUT THEN
MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL DURING THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.  SUNDAY
AND MONDAY LOOK DRY WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS.  THE TROUGH AXIS
EJECTS NORTHEAST BY TUESDAY AND MAY SUPPORT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT
THAT TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN THE EAST AND MVFR IN THE CT VALLEY AND
PARTS OF SOUTHERN NH. THIS MAY SLOWLY IMPROVE TO A MORE WIDESPREAD
MVFR AT BEST...BUT SHOULD THEN LOWER TO IFR AGAIN WITH SUNSET.

TONIGHT...IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT. THIS
MAY SHOW SOME SLOW IMPROVEMENT FROM WEST TO EAST LATER IN THE
NIGHT WITH THE MOST IMPROVEMENT TOWARDS DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

THURSDAY...AREAS OF IFR /MAINLY IN THE EAST/ WILL IMPROVE TO VFR.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...VFR. AREAS OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN PATCHY FOG
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.  AREAS OF IFR CIGS MOVE WEST OFF THE OCEAN
INTO EAST COASTAL MASSACHUSETTS INCLUDING THE CAPE AND ISLANDS LATE
FRIDAY AND MORE LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY...IFR CIGS FROM THE WORCESTER HILLS EAST DURING THE
MORNING. VFR FARTHER WEST TO START THE DAY BUT LOWERING TO MVFR AND
SCATTERED IFR AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE IN THE DAY AND BRINGS
SHOWERS.  WIND SHIFTS FROM SOUTH DURING THE DAY TO WEST BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT LATE IN THE DAY AND EARLY AT NIGHT.

SUNDAY...VFR WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION WITH FAIR WEATHER.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE

PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY GUSTING
TO AROUND 25 KTS BY ABOUT MIDDAY TODAY. SEAS CONTINUE TO
INCREASE...PARTICULARLY ON THE NORTHEASTERN WATERS AND INTO BOSTON
HARBOR AND CAPE COD BAY. ADDED ALL THE WATERS EXCEPT FOR
NARRAGANSETT BAY TO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR BOTH WINDS AND
SEAS AND ALL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH
THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING 20 TO 25 KNOTS WILL
MAINTAIN 5 TO 9 FOOT SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS AND EXPOSED EASTERN
WATERS SUCH AS MASSACHUSETTS BAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE
NEEDED. FOG AND LOW CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE GULF OF MAINE MAY
CREATE POOR VSBYS FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY... LINGERING POOR VSBYS SATURDAY MORNING IN FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATER IN THE DAY AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES WITH SHOWERS.  SOUTH WINDS WILL GUST 25 TO 30 KNOTS
DURING THE DAY AND EVENING...SHIFTING TO WEST AFTER THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.  SEAS WILL CONTINUE AT 5 TO 8 FEET ON
THE OUTER WATERS AND OTHER EXPOSED WATERS.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS
LIKELY.

SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH A LITTLE BUT STILL ROUGH. SEAS WILL
LINGER AT 5 TO 7 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL GUST TO 25 KNOTS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ232.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ233-234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ230.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ231.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/RLG
NEAR TERM...WTB/RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/RLG
MARINE...WTB/RLG



000
FXUS61 KBOX 011054
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
654 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL...DAMP CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE INTO THURSDAY MORNING...WITH
MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED TODAY. DRY WEATHER RETURNS LATER
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE REGION.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

7 AM UPDATE...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE MOVING TOWARD NEW ENGLAND WITH CORE
MOVING OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. BANDS OF SHOWERS ROTATING
AROUND THE CENTER OF THIS LOW ARE MOVING SE TO NW ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. AS THE LOW SHIFTS FARTHER EAST TODAY THIS MOVEMENT
SHOULD BECOME EAST TO WEST. WE HAVE EXPANDED THE AREA OF LIKELY
POPS AND MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS. OTHERWISE...CONTINUE THE
WET FORECAST FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER PENNSYLVANIA MOVES EASTWARD OVER SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND TODAY. COMBINED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL
SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET...AN INVERTED TROUGH SHOULD DEVELOP JUST
WEST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL CREATE A DEEP LAYER OF
LIFT THAT WILL ALLOW RAIN TO BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW BRINGS IN PLENTY OF COOL
MOIST AIR IN OFF THE OCEAN AND PWATS ARE 125 TO 175 PERCENT OF
NORMAL FOR EARLY OCTOBER. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MUCH NEEDED STEADY
RAINFALL ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITH ROUGHLY HALF AN INCH TO AN
INCH OF RAIN EXPECTED IN MOST LOCATIONS. HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE WHERE BANDS OF HEAVIER RAIN SET UP. WHILE WE CAN/T
DETERMINE EXACTLY WHERE THESE BANDS WILL DEVELOP...THE BEST CHANCE
FOR HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOKS TO BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST MASS
WHERE RAIN WILL LAST THE LONGEST BEFORE THE LOW PULLS AWAY TO THE
EAST.

USED LOCALLY PRODUCED BIAS CORRECTED MOS FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY
WHICH WILL REMAIN COOL AROUND 60 DEGREES FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...STEADY RAIN WILL COME TO AN END SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST
AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE REGION.  RAIN IS LIKELY
TO CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN MA AND RI THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
CONTINUED EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE
ALLOWING FOR LOW CLOUDS...DRIZZLE...AND FOG TO REMAIN ACROSS THE
REGION.  LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE 50S.

THURSDAY...WILL START TO SEE SOME DRYING...PARTICULARLY IN THE WEST
AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN.  CAPE AND ISLANDS WILL BE LAST
TO LOSE THE MOISTURE BUT CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN BREAKING UP BY THE END
OF THE DAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN WITH HIGHS AROUND
60...EXCEPT FOR THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY WHERE THEY MAY CLIMB INTO THE
MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BIG PICTURE... ALASKA SHORTWAVE DIGS OVER THE WESTERN USA/CANADA AND
KICKS THE ESTABLISHED UPPER TROUGH EAST TO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
BRINGS A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE EASTERN USA WITH BELOW
NORMAL HEIGHTS WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN USA.

EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW...A CLOSED LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND MOVES OFF
THROUGH THE MARITIMES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

THE DAILIES...

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OVER NEW
ENGLAND. CROSS SECTIONS OF RH SHOW DRYING IN MOST LAYERS THURSDAY
NIGHT BUT THEN AN INCREASING LAYER OF MOISTURE BELOW 800 MB BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SUGGESTS CLEARING...BUT FOLLOWED BY
INCREASING LOW CLOUDS AGAIN DURING FRIDAY.  RH CHARTS FROM THE GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW CLOUD MOISTURE BEING PUSHED WEST ACROSS THE GULF OF
MAINE FROM THE DEPARTING COASTAL LOW...AND INTO SOUTHEAST NH/EASTERN
MASS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BY FRIDAY NIGHT THE SAME MODELS SHOW LIGHT
PCPN OVER THIS AREA...SUGGESTING SPRINKLES OR DRIZZLE.

WE WILL HAVE A DRY FORECAST DURING THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BUT
WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH
FOG/DRIZZLE AND IN EAST COASTAL AREAS A CHANCE FOR MEASUREABLE PCPN.

LIGHT EAST WINDS WILL LIMIT MIXING...AND TEMPS IN THIS SHALLOW LAYER
WILL SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE 60S...COOLEST NEAR THE EAST MASS COAST
AND WARMEST IN THE CT VALLEY.

SATURDAY... THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DEEPENS
AS IT MOVES IT.  THE TROUGH USES A 110 KNOT JET TO PUSH A COLD FRONT
EAST TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. TEMPERATURE PROFILES SHOW A STRONG THERMAL
GRADIANT ACROSS THE FRONT. THE DEEPENING OF THE TROUGH ALSO TURNS
THE UPPER FLOW OVER NEW ENGLAND MORE FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
DRAWING MOISTURE NORTH...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO
REACH 1.5 TO 1.6 INCHES.  STABILITY PARAMETERS ARE LESS THAN
MARGINAL...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE 5C/KM OR LESS AND TOTALS ARE
LESS THAN 44.

FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE LIKELY POPS BUT SLIGHTLY SLOWER
THAN PREVIOUSLY. THIS SLOWER TIMING ALIGNS WITH SIMILAR TRENDS IN
THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH WINDSHIFT IN THE CT VALLEY 2 PM TO 8 PM AND
IN THE COASTAL PLAIN 8 PM TO MIDNIGHT.

SUNDAY-MONDAY-TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE MOVES NORTH OF OUR AREA
SUNDAY...BUT THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
CONTOUR HEIGHTS AT 500 MB ARE BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND BUT THEN
MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL DURING THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.  SUNDAY
AND MONDAY LOOK DRY WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS.  THE TROUGH AXIS
EJECTS NORTHEAST BY TUESDAY AND MAY SUPPORT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT
THAT TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN THE EAST AND MVFR IN THE CT VALLEY AND
PARTS OF SOUTHERN NH. THIS MAY SLOWLY IMPROVE TO A MORE WIDESPREAD
MVFR AT BEST...BUT SHOULD THEN LOWER TO IFR AGAIN WITH SUNSET.

TONIGHT...IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT. THIS
MAY SHOW SOME SLOW IMPROVEMENT FROM WEST TO EAST LATER IN THE
NIGHT WITH THE MOST IMPROVEMENT TOWARDS DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

THURSDAY...AREAS OF IFR /MAINLY IN THE EAST/ WILL IMPROVE TO VFR.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...VFR. AREAS OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN PATCHY FOG
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.  AREAS OF IFR CIGS MOVE WEST OFF THE OCEAN
INTO EAST COASTAL MASSACHUSETTS INCLUDING THE CAPE AND ISLANDS LATE
FRIDAY AND MORE LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY...IFR CIGS FROM THE WORCESTER HILLS EAST DURING THE
MORNING. VFR FARTHER WEST TO START THE DAY BUT LOWERING TO MVFR AND
SCATTERED IFR AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE IN THE DAY AND BRINGS
SHOWERS.  WIND SHIFTS FROM SOUTH DURING THE DAY TO WEST BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT LATE IN THE DAY AND EARLY AT NIGHT.

SUNDAY...VFR WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION WITH FAIR WEATHER.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE

PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY GUSTING
TO AROUND 25 KTS BY ABOUT MIDDAY TODAY. SEAS CONTINUE TO
INCREASE...PARTICULARLY ON THE NORTHEASTERN WATERS AND INTO BOSTON
HARBOR AND CAPE COD BAY. ADDED ALL THE WATERS EXCEPT FOR
NARRAGANSETT BAY TO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR BOTH WINDS AND
SEAS AND ALL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH
THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING 20 TO 25 KNOTS WILL
MAINTAIN 5 TO 9 FOOT SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS AND EXPOSED EASTERN
WATERS SUCH AS MASSACHUSETTS BAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE
NEEDED. FOG AND LOW CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE GULF OF MAINE MAY
CREATE POOR VSBYS FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY... LINGERING POOR VSBYS SATURDAY MORNING IN FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATER IN THE DAY AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES WITH SHOWERS.  SOUTH WINDS WILL GUST 25 TO 30 KNOTS
DURING THE DAY AND EVENING...SHIFTING TO WEST AFTER THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.  SEAS WILL CONTINUE AT 5 TO 8 FEET ON
THE OUTER WATERS AND OTHER EXPOSED WATERS.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS
LIKELY.

SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH A LITTLE BUT STILL ROUGH. SEAS WILL
LINGER AT 5 TO 7 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL GUST TO 25 KNOTS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ232.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ233-234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ230.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ231.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/RLG
NEAR TERM...WTB/RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/RLG
MARINE...WTB/RLG




000
FXUS61 KALY 011036
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
636 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE
REGION WILL ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS...THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN DOMINATE...ALLOWING FOR
CLEARING SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING GUSTY RAIN SHOWERS
AND COOLER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 636 AM EDT...A CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY OVER
EASTERN PA AND IS MOVING EASTWARD TOWARDS NEW JERSEY. CYCLONIC
FLOW AROUND THIS SYSTEM IS PICKING UP MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN AND PRODUCING SHOWERS OVER NEW ENGLAND. THESE LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS ARE SLOWLY TRACKING NORTHWEST WITHIN THE FLOW AROUND THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW...AND ARE STARTING TO REACH INTO EASTERN
NY...INCLUDING PARTS OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

THE 08Z 3KM HRRR GUIDANCE AND LATEST RUN OF OUR LOCAL HIRES WRF
SHOW THE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MAINLY OUR EASTERN
ZONES. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT...BUT WILL BE NOTICEABLE
DUE TO THE RECENT STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER. THE RAIN SHOWERS THIS
MORNING PROBABLY WON/T MAKE IT ANY FURTHER NORTH AND WEST THAN
THE CAPITAL REGION...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING A SHOWER
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.

IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF CLOUDS IN PLACE AND SFC OBS
SHOW A GOOD DEAL OF STRATUS AS WELL. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THESE
CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
ENTIRE DAY TODAY...AS THE UPPER LOW SLIDES EASTWARD TO OUR SOUTH
TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...KEEPING THE MOIST EASTERLY FLOW IN
PLACE.

WITH THE CLOUDS/PRECIP...HAVE SIDED ON THE COOLER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR VALLEY
AREAS /UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY DEPART TO OUR EAST TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS TO DIMINISH FROM
WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING...WITH JUST A LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE
OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND LATE TONIGHT. IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
CLOUDY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT ONCE THE CLOUDS FINALLY START TO THIN OUT...ESP FOR ANY
AREAS THAT SEE RAINFALL. OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY LOOK TO BE IN THE 50S.

MORNING CLOUDS WILL BREAK FOR SUNSHINE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AS
THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST OF CAPE COD...AND WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN
AT 500 HPA. HIGH TEMPS LOOK TO REACH WELL INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70
FOR VALLEY AREAS.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH
RIDGING IN PLACE ALOFT AND WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA.
SKIES WILL BE CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A COOLER NIGHT ON THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING...WITH 40S IN MOST AREAS. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL ON FRIDAY DUE TO 850 HPA TEMPS AROUND 10 TO 11 DEGREES
C AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...WITH VALLEY HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN SETTING UP WITH A STRONG UPPER SYSTEM
DROPPING OUT OF CANADA AND DRAWING MOISTURE FROM THE SUBTROPICS AS A
LEADING UPPER IMPULSE TRACKS AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
MEAN EASTERN NORTH AMERICAN UPPER TROUGH.  THE UPPER IMPULSE GOES
NEGATIVE TILT AND THE COMBINATION OF THE UPPER DYNAMICS...MOISTURE
AND LOW LEVEL FORCING...IS EXPECTED TO BRING A SOAKING RAIN TO THE
AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. COOLING BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT..ALONG WITH WEST LOW LEVEL FLOW...COULD RESULT IN RATHER
EXTENSIVE CLOUDS INTO THROUGH SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS SUNDAY WITH SOME
LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE. THERE SHOULD BE A
PERIOD OF RELATIVE CLEARING SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT IN
MOST OTHER AREAS.

ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK AROUND TH SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH AND REINFORCE THE COOLER AIR OVER
OUR REGION AROUND THE MONDAY TIME FRAME...WITH ANOTHER POTENTIAL
PERIOD OF SHOWERS.  ALTHOUGH THE TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO AROUND OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ONCE THE COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY...THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR LOOKS TO REMAIN WEST OF
THE REGION...MORE PROXIMATE TO THE UPPER LOW IN CANADA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S SATURDAY...BUT COOLER IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. THEN...HIGHS AROUND 60 TO MID 60S THROUGH MONDAY...50S
IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS EAST...MOISTURE...CLOUDS AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY BUILD WEST AND NORTHWEST. MVFR CEILINGS HAVE
BUILT WEST INTO THE REGION...AND BASED ON SATELLITE AND RADAR
TRENDS...THE MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF THIS MORNING.
VISIBILITIES WILL BE VFR...MAYBE BRIEFLY MVFR IF AN ISOLATED SHOWER
AFFECTS THE REGION...WITH VCSH ONLY AT KPSF AND KPOU WHERE ANY
ISOLATED SHOWER COULD BE THROUGH THIS MORNING.

MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AND INTO THIS
EVENING...WITH SOME PERIODS OF VFR CEILINGS ABOVE 3000 FEET DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AT KALB AND KGFL...WHERE THE LEAST
CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE. VCSH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AT KPSF AND KPOU.
BY EVENING...THE MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD LINGER BUT VISIBILITIES SHOULD
CONTINUE MAINLY VFR.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT LESS
THAN 10 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VARIABLE WINDS BY THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TODAY...ALONG WITH A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS. RH VALUES WILL ONLY DROP
TO 65 TO 70 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS. RH
VALUES WILL RECOVER TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH FOG AND DEW
FORMATION AND NEARLY CALM WINDS.

CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY BREAK FOR SUNSHINE ON THURSDAY WITH RH VALUES
DROPPING TO AROUND 60 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS OF 5 MPH OR LESS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A NEARBY UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
TODAY INTO TONIGHT...MAINLY FOR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
REGION. BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL WILL BE TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OR
LESS...AND THIS LOOKS TO HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS...WHICH HAVE BEEN RUNNING QUITE LOW LATELY DUE TO A LACK OF
RECENT RAINFALL.

A MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT ON SATURDAY. MOST AREAS LOOK TO SEE AT LEAST A HALF INCH OF
RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM.  THIS RAINFALL WILL NOT CAUSE ANY HYDROLOGIC
ISSUES...AND WILL BE BENEFICIAL TO THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS








000
FXUS61 KOKX 010853
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
453 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE TO END THE
WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ON SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY POTENTIALLY
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LIGHT RAIN NOTED OVER SE CT AND FAR EASTERN LI EARLY THIS MORNING AS
WEAK VORT MAX CONTINUES TO PROGRESS TO THE NORTH AND EAST AND A
PERSISTENT NELY SURFACE FLOW KEEPS THE LOWER LEVELS VERY MOIST. AT
THE MOMENT...THE CWA REMAINS DEVOID OF ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT.
HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE FOR SOME PATCHY FOG FORMATION OVER INTERIOR
CT/NY NEAR DAYBREAK SO HAVE INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST.

ATTENTION FOR THE DAY REMAINS FOCUSED ON THE PROGRESSION OF A CLOSED
UPPER LVL LOW CURRENTLY NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER WESTERN
PA. GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONGST THE 00Z MODEL SOLUTIONS IS FOR THE LOW
TO TREK ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY...LINGERING THOUGH UNTIL
THURSDAY. NE FLOW KEEPS THE LOWER LVLS VERY MOIST...SO DESPITE THE
LACK OF ANY REAL SFC LIFT...STRONG FORCING ALOFT SHOULD WORK TO
PRODUCE SCT-NUM SHOWERS. EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SHOWERS IS THE
POSSIBILITY FOR MODERATE TO EVEN HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH THE
MESO MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST WILL OCCUR OVER EASTERN LONG ISLAND
AND SE CT...CORRESPONDING TO THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION OF THE
STRONGEST FORCING/VORT MAX BY THIS AFTN/EVENING. SO FOR POPS...AM
KEEPING LIKELY WORDING IN FOR AREAS GENERALLY EAST OF NYC
METRO...WITH CHC TO THE WEST.

A MIX OF CLOUD COVER...PCPN AND NE FLOW WILL RESULT IN TEMPS RESTING
RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR HIGHS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
PCPN CONTINUES THIS EVENING...WITH THE MAIN QUESTION ON THE ENDING
TIME. UPPER LEVEL LOW PIVOTS EAST...WITH THE MAIN FORCING GENERALLY
RESIDING OVER EASTERN AREAS OF THE CWA FOR THE NIGHT. AS
SUCH...BEGAN TO TAPER POPS BACK FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
NIGHT...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EVEN POSSIBLE BY 06Z WEST OF NYC.
CONFIDENCE RESTS WITH THE PCPN CONTINUING THOUGH OVER EASTERN LI/SE
CT. HOWEVER...WITH THE BULLS EYE OF MAIN FORCING MAINLY
OFFSHORE...SIDING MORE WITH PCPN BEING ON THE LIGHTER SIDE. 00Z NAM
AND ECMWF DO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS OVER THE
FAR EASTERN REACHES OF THE CWA...BUT WILL WANT TO SEE THE TREND FOR
THE DAY BEFORE SIDING WITH THE HEAVIER AMTS. LIGHT PCPN LINGERS JUST
OFFSHORE THEN DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...TAPERING OFF LATE IN THE DAY
AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW FINALLY EXITS THE REGION...BEING REPLACED
WITH RIDGING ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH FRI EVENING. THE CFP
AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL ARE STILL LINED UP FOR LATE FRI NIGHT INTO
SAT. THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THIS TIMING. POP HAS
BEEN INCREASED TO CAT FOR SAT...AND LIKELY POP ALSO CONTINUES INTO
EARLY SAT EVENING ACROSS SRN CT AND LONG ISLAND.

SUNDAY WILL BE DRY AS ALL OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE SHUNTED OFF TO THE
EAST. THEN RAIN CHANCES SHOULD RETURN FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING...MAINLY MON INTO MON NIGHT.

FOR HIGHS...BOTH FRI/SAT SHOULD SEE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S...THEN A
COOLER DAY ON SUNDAY WITH ONLY LOWER/MID 60S. SLIGHT MODERATION
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH...MAINLY 65-70. LOWS SAT
NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT DO NOT LOOK TO BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
FROST CONCERNS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PASSES OVER THE REGION OVER THE AREA TODAY AS A
VERY MOIST LOW LEVEL NE FLOW PREVAILS AT THE SURFACE. THIS RESULTS
IN MARGINAL VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF FCST PERIOD...THOUGH
AREAS OF IFR ARE LIKELY THIS MORNING.

LIGHT RAIN WITH A FEW EMBEDDED SHOWERS AND LOCALIZED TSRA POSSIBLE FOR
EASTERN SECTIONS INTO THIS EVENING.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE PERSISTENT NNE SFC FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OCNL GUSTS INTO THE UPPER TEENS FOR THE NY METRO EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON THOUGH NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAFS.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: UN-FORECAST FLUCTUATIONS IN CIG CATEGORY
EXPECT THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN VFR FOR
THE AFTN.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FCST.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: UN-FORECAST FLUCTUATIONS IN CIG CATEGORY
EXPECT THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN VFR FOR
THE AFTN.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FCST THOUGH DIRECTION MAY SWING RIGHT OF
040 MAGNETIC AT TIMES.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: UN-FORECAST FLUCTUATIONS IN CIG CATEGORY
EXPECT THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN VFR FOR
THE AFTN.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FCST.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES  SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: UN-FORECAST FLUCTUATIONS IN CIG CATEGORY
EXPECT THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN VFR FOR
THE AFTN.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FCST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: UN-FORECAST FLUCTUATIONS IN CIG CATEGORY
EXPECT THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN VFR FOR
THE AFTN.


KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: UN-FORECAST FLUCTUATIONS IN CIG CATEGORY
EXPECT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.EARLY THU MORNING...MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN -RA. E-NE WINDS
10-15 KT...WITH G 20 KT ALONG THE COAST.
.THU...BECOMING VFR. NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.FRI...VFR. SE-S WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.SAT...RAIN LIKELY - MVFR OR LOWER AT TIMES. SE WIND 10-15G20 KT.
.SUN...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN WATERS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
INCREASING NE FLOW. GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS
AFTN...WHILE SEAS GENERALLY BETWEEN 5 AND 7 FT ARE EXPECTED. ON
THE NON OCEAN WATERS...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS TODAY. COULD SEE OCNL
GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS IN THE BAYS AROUND LONG ISLAND AND EASTERN LONG
ISLAND SOUND...WITH THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME MORE PERSISTENT
TONIGHT. AS SUCH...A SCA MIGHT NEED TO BE ISSUED FOR THESE WATERS
TONIGHT/THURSDAY. THE REMAINING WATERS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA THROUGH THURSDAY. HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA FOR THE EASTERN
TWO-THIRDS OF THE OCEAN WATERS UNTIL THURS EVENING...WHILE THE
SCA CONTINUES FOR THE WESTERN PORTIONS JUST THROUGH TONIGHT.

FOR THU NIGHT AND BEYOND...HAZARDOUS OCEAN SEAS ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE FROM THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING...THEY SHOULD FALL BLW 5 FT
LATE FRI INTO FRI NIGHT...AND ONCE AGAIN RAMP UP THRU THE WEEKEND.
ELSEWHERE...THE ERN SOUND/BAYS COULD SEE SCA CONDS IN POST-FRONTAL W
FLOW ON SUNDAY. SCA CONDS ARE POSSIBLE ALL WATERS AGAIN ON MON AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SYS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL RESULTING IN HYDROLOGIC ISSUES IS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

RAINFALL TOTALS TODAY ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND CONNECTICUT WILL
RANGE FROM A QUARTER OF AN INCH TO THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH.
AREAS TO THE WEST WILL GENERALLY BE A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS.

QPF OF 3/4 TO 1 INCH LIKELY NW OF NYC ON SAT WITH COLD FRONT...AND
1/2 TO 3/4 INCH FARTHER EAST.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/SEARS
NEAR TERM...SEARS
SHORT TERM...SEARS
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...TONGUE
MARINE...GOODMAN/SEARS
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/SEARS






000
FXUS61 KOKX 010853
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
453 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE TO END THE
WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ON SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY POTENTIALLY
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LIGHT RAIN NOTED OVER SE CT AND FAR EASTERN LI EARLY THIS MORNING AS
WEAK VORT MAX CONTINUES TO PROGRESS TO THE NORTH AND EAST AND A
PERSISTENT NELY SURFACE FLOW KEEPS THE LOWER LEVELS VERY MOIST. AT
THE MOMENT...THE CWA REMAINS DEVOID OF ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT.
HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE FOR SOME PATCHY FOG FORMATION OVER INTERIOR
CT/NY NEAR DAYBREAK SO HAVE INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST.

ATTENTION FOR THE DAY REMAINS FOCUSED ON THE PROGRESSION OF A CLOSED
UPPER LVL LOW CURRENTLY NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER WESTERN
PA. GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONGST THE 00Z MODEL SOLUTIONS IS FOR THE LOW
TO TREK ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY...LINGERING THOUGH UNTIL
THURSDAY. NE FLOW KEEPS THE LOWER LVLS VERY MOIST...SO DESPITE THE
LACK OF ANY REAL SFC LIFT...STRONG FORCING ALOFT SHOULD WORK TO
PRODUCE SCT-NUM SHOWERS. EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SHOWERS IS THE
POSSIBILITY FOR MODERATE TO EVEN HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH THE
MESO MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST WILL OCCUR OVER EASTERN LONG ISLAND
AND SE CT...CORRESPONDING TO THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION OF THE
STRONGEST FORCING/VORT MAX BY THIS AFTN/EVENING. SO FOR POPS...AM
KEEPING LIKELY WORDING IN FOR AREAS GENERALLY EAST OF NYC
METRO...WITH CHC TO THE WEST.

A MIX OF CLOUD COVER...PCPN AND NE FLOW WILL RESULT IN TEMPS RESTING
RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR HIGHS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
PCPN CONTINUES THIS EVENING...WITH THE MAIN QUESTION ON THE ENDING
TIME. UPPER LEVEL LOW PIVOTS EAST...WITH THE MAIN FORCING GENERALLY
RESIDING OVER EASTERN AREAS OF THE CWA FOR THE NIGHT. AS
SUCH...BEGAN TO TAPER POPS BACK FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
NIGHT...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EVEN POSSIBLE BY 06Z WEST OF NYC.
CONFIDENCE RESTS WITH THE PCPN CONTINUING THOUGH OVER EASTERN LI/SE
CT. HOWEVER...WITH THE BULLS EYE OF MAIN FORCING MAINLY
OFFSHORE...SIDING MORE WITH PCPN BEING ON THE LIGHTER SIDE. 00Z NAM
AND ECMWF DO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS OVER THE
FAR EASTERN REACHES OF THE CWA...BUT WILL WANT TO SEE THE TREND FOR
THE DAY BEFORE SIDING WITH THE HEAVIER AMTS. LIGHT PCPN LINGERS JUST
OFFSHORE THEN DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...TAPERING OFF LATE IN THE DAY
AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW FINALLY EXITS THE REGION...BEING REPLACED
WITH RIDGING ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH FRI EVENING. THE CFP
AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL ARE STILL LINED UP FOR LATE FRI NIGHT INTO
SAT. THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THIS TIMING. POP HAS
BEEN INCREASED TO CAT FOR SAT...AND LIKELY POP ALSO CONTINUES INTO
EARLY SAT EVENING ACROSS SRN CT AND LONG ISLAND.

SUNDAY WILL BE DRY AS ALL OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE SHUNTED OFF TO THE
EAST. THEN RAIN CHANCES SHOULD RETURN FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING...MAINLY MON INTO MON NIGHT.

FOR HIGHS...BOTH FRI/SAT SHOULD SEE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S...THEN A
COOLER DAY ON SUNDAY WITH ONLY LOWER/MID 60S. SLIGHT MODERATION
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH...MAINLY 65-70. LOWS SAT
NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT DO NOT LOOK TO BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
FROST CONCERNS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PASSES OVER THE REGION OVER THE AREA TODAY AS A
VERY MOIST LOW LEVEL NE FLOW PREVAILS AT THE SURFACE. THIS RESULTS
IN MARGINAL VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF FCST PERIOD...THOUGH
AREAS OF IFR ARE LIKELY THIS MORNING.

LIGHT RAIN WITH A FEW EMBEDDED SHOWERS AND LOCALIZED TSRA POSSIBLE FOR
EASTERN SECTIONS INTO THIS EVENING.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE PERSISTENT NNE SFC FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OCNL GUSTS INTO THE UPPER TEENS FOR THE NY METRO EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON THOUGH NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAFS.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: UN-FORECAST FLUCTUATIONS IN CIG CATEGORY
EXPECT THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN VFR FOR
THE AFTN.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FCST.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: UN-FORECAST FLUCTUATIONS IN CIG CATEGORY
EXPECT THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN VFR FOR
THE AFTN.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FCST THOUGH DIRECTION MAY SWING RIGHT OF
040 MAGNETIC AT TIMES.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: UN-FORECAST FLUCTUATIONS IN CIG CATEGORY
EXPECT THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN VFR FOR
THE AFTN.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FCST.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES  SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: UN-FORECAST FLUCTUATIONS IN CIG CATEGORY
EXPECT THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN VFR FOR
THE AFTN.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FCST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: UN-FORECAST FLUCTUATIONS IN CIG CATEGORY
EXPECT THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN VFR FOR
THE AFTN.


KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: UN-FORECAST FLUCTUATIONS IN CIG CATEGORY
EXPECT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.EARLY THU MORNING...MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN -RA. E-NE WINDS
10-15 KT...WITH G 20 KT ALONG THE COAST.
.THU...BECOMING VFR. NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.FRI...VFR. SE-S WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.SAT...RAIN LIKELY - MVFR OR LOWER AT TIMES. SE WIND 10-15G20 KT.
.SUN...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN WATERS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
INCREASING NE FLOW. GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS
AFTN...WHILE SEAS GENERALLY BETWEEN 5 AND 7 FT ARE EXPECTED. ON
THE NON OCEAN WATERS...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS TODAY. COULD SEE OCNL
GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS IN THE BAYS AROUND LONG ISLAND AND EASTERN LONG
ISLAND SOUND...WITH THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME MORE PERSISTENT
TONIGHT. AS SUCH...A SCA MIGHT NEED TO BE ISSUED FOR THESE WATERS
TONIGHT/THURSDAY. THE REMAINING WATERS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA THROUGH THURSDAY. HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA FOR THE EASTERN
TWO-THIRDS OF THE OCEAN WATERS UNTIL THURS EVENING...WHILE THE
SCA CONTINUES FOR THE WESTERN PORTIONS JUST THROUGH TONIGHT.

FOR THU NIGHT AND BEYOND...HAZARDOUS OCEAN SEAS ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE FROM THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING...THEY SHOULD FALL BLW 5 FT
LATE FRI INTO FRI NIGHT...AND ONCE AGAIN RAMP UP THRU THE WEEKEND.
ELSEWHERE...THE ERN SOUND/BAYS COULD SEE SCA CONDS IN POST-FRONTAL W
FLOW ON SUNDAY. SCA CONDS ARE POSSIBLE ALL WATERS AGAIN ON MON AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SYS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL RESULTING IN HYDROLOGIC ISSUES IS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

RAINFALL TOTALS TODAY ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND CONNECTICUT WILL
RANGE FROM A QUARTER OF AN INCH TO THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH.
AREAS TO THE WEST WILL GENERALLY BE A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS.

QPF OF 3/4 TO 1 INCH LIKELY NW OF NYC ON SAT WITH COLD FRONT...AND
1/2 TO 3/4 INCH FARTHER EAST.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/SEARS
NEAR TERM...SEARS
SHORT TERM...SEARS
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...TONGUE
MARINE...GOODMAN/SEARS
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/SEARS






000
FXUS61 KOKX 010853
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
453 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE TO END THE
WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ON SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY POTENTIALLY
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LIGHT RAIN NOTED OVER SE CT AND FAR EASTERN LI EARLY THIS MORNING AS
WEAK VORT MAX CONTINUES TO PROGRESS TO THE NORTH AND EAST AND A
PERSISTENT NELY SURFACE FLOW KEEPS THE LOWER LEVELS VERY MOIST. AT
THE MOMENT...THE CWA REMAINS DEVOID OF ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT.
HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE FOR SOME PATCHY FOG FORMATION OVER INTERIOR
CT/NY NEAR DAYBREAK SO HAVE INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST.

ATTENTION FOR THE DAY REMAINS FOCUSED ON THE PROGRESSION OF A CLOSED
UPPER LVL LOW CURRENTLY NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER WESTERN
PA. GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONGST THE 00Z MODEL SOLUTIONS IS FOR THE LOW
TO TREK ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY...LINGERING THOUGH UNTIL
THURSDAY. NE FLOW KEEPS THE LOWER LVLS VERY MOIST...SO DESPITE THE
LACK OF ANY REAL SFC LIFT...STRONG FORCING ALOFT SHOULD WORK TO
PRODUCE SCT-NUM SHOWERS. EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SHOWERS IS THE
POSSIBILITY FOR MODERATE TO EVEN HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH THE
MESO MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST WILL OCCUR OVER EASTERN LONG ISLAND
AND SE CT...CORRESPONDING TO THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION OF THE
STRONGEST FORCING/VORT MAX BY THIS AFTN/EVENING. SO FOR POPS...AM
KEEPING LIKELY WORDING IN FOR AREAS GENERALLY EAST OF NYC
METRO...WITH CHC TO THE WEST.

A MIX OF CLOUD COVER...PCPN AND NE FLOW WILL RESULT IN TEMPS RESTING
RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR HIGHS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
PCPN CONTINUES THIS EVENING...WITH THE MAIN QUESTION ON THE ENDING
TIME. UPPER LEVEL LOW PIVOTS EAST...WITH THE MAIN FORCING GENERALLY
RESIDING OVER EASTERN AREAS OF THE CWA FOR THE NIGHT. AS
SUCH...BEGAN TO TAPER POPS BACK FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
NIGHT...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EVEN POSSIBLE BY 06Z WEST OF NYC.
CONFIDENCE RESTS WITH THE PCPN CONTINUING THOUGH OVER EASTERN LI/SE
CT. HOWEVER...WITH THE BULLS EYE OF MAIN FORCING MAINLY
OFFSHORE...SIDING MORE WITH PCPN BEING ON THE LIGHTER SIDE. 00Z NAM
AND ECMWF DO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS OVER THE
FAR EASTERN REACHES OF THE CWA...BUT WILL WANT TO SEE THE TREND FOR
THE DAY BEFORE SIDING WITH THE HEAVIER AMTS. LIGHT PCPN LINGERS JUST
OFFSHORE THEN DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...TAPERING OFF LATE IN THE DAY
AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW FINALLY EXITS THE REGION...BEING REPLACED
WITH RIDGING ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH FRI EVENING. THE CFP
AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL ARE STILL LINED UP FOR LATE FRI NIGHT INTO
SAT. THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THIS TIMING. POP HAS
BEEN INCREASED TO CAT FOR SAT...AND LIKELY POP ALSO CONTINUES INTO
EARLY SAT EVENING ACROSS SRN CT AND LONG ISLAND.

SUNDAY WILL BE DRY AS ALL OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE SHUNTED OFF TO THE
EAST. THEN RAIN CHANCES SHOULD RETURN FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING...MAINLY MON INTO MON NIGHT.

FOR HIGHS...BOTH FRI/SAT SHOULD SEE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S...THEN A
COOLER DAY ON SUNDAY WITH ONLY LOWER/MID 60S. SLIGHT MODERATION
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH...MAINLY 65-70. LOWS SAT
NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT DO NOT LOOK TO BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
FROST CONCERNS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PASSES OVER THE REGION OVER THE AREA TODAY AS A
VERY MOIST LOW LEVEL NE FLOW PREVAILS AT THE SURFACE. THIS RESULTS
IN MARGINAL VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF FCST PERIOD...THOUGH
AREAS OF IFR ARE LIKELY THIS MORNING.

LIGHT RAIN WITH A FEW EMBEDDED SHOWERS AND LOCALIZED TSRA POSSIBLE FOR
EASTERN SECTIONS INTO THIS EVENING.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE PERSISTENT NNE SFC FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OCNL GUSTS INTO THE UPPER TEENS FOR THE NY METRO EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON THOUGH NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAFS.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: UN-FORECAST FLUCTUATIONS IN CIG CATEGORY
EXPECT THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN VFR FOR
THE AFTN.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FCST.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: UN-FORECAST FLUCTUATIONS IN CIG CATEGORY
EXPECT THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN VFR FOR
THE AFTN.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FCST THOUGH DIRECTION MAY SWING RIGHT OF
040 MAGNETIC AT TIMES.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: UN-FORECAST FLUCTUATIONS IN CIG CATEGORY
EXPECT THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN VFR FOR
THE AFTN.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FCST.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES  SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: UN-FORECAST FLUCTUATIONS IN CIG CATEGORY
EXPECT THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN VFR FOR
THE AFTN.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FCST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: UN-FORECAST FLUCTUATIONS IN CIG CATEGORY
EXPECT THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN VFR FOR
THE AFTN.


KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: UN-FORECAST FLUCTUATIONS IN CIG CATEGORY
EXPECT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.EARLY THU MORNING...MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN -RA. E-NE WINDS
10-15 KT...WITH G 20 KT ALONG THE COAST.
.THU...BECOMING VFR. NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.FRI...VFR. SE-S WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.SAT...RAIN LIKELY - MVFR OR LOWER AT TIMES. SE WIND 10-15G20 KT.
.SUN...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN WATERS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
INCREASING NE FLOW. GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS
AFTN...WHILE SEAS GENERALLY BETWEEN 5 AND 7 FT ARE EXPECTED. ON
THE NON OCEAN WATERS...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS TODAY. COULD SEE OCNL
GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS IN THE BAYS AROUND LONG ISLAND AND EASTERN LONG
ISLAND SOUND...WITH THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME MORE PERSISTENT
TONIGHT. AS SUCH...A SCA MIGHT NEED TO BE ISSUED FOR THESE WATERS
TONIGHT/THURSDAY. THE REMAINING WATERS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA THROUGH THURSDAY. HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA FOR THE EASTERN
TWO-THIRDS OF THE OCEAN WATERS UNTIL THURS EVENING...WHILE THE
SCA CONTINUES FOR THE WESTERN PORTIONS JUST THROUGH TONIGHT.

FOR THU NIGHT AND BEYOND...HAZARDOUS OCEAN SEAS ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE FROM THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING...THEY SHOULD FALL BLW 5 FT
LATE FRI INTO FRI NIGHT...AND ONCE AGAIN RAMP UP THRU THE WEEKEND.
ELSEWHERE...THE ERN SOUND/BAYS COULD SEE SCA CONDS IN POST-FRONTAL W
FLOW ON SUNDAY. SCA CONDS ARE POSSIBLE ALL WATERS AGAIN ON MON AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SYS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL RESULTING IN HYDROLOGIC ISSUES IS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

RAINFALL TOTALS TODAY ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND CONNECTICUT WILL
RANGE FROM A QUARTER OF AN INCH TO THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH.
AREAS TO THE WEST WILL GENERALLY BE A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS.

QPF OF 3/4 TO 1 INCH LIKELY NW OF NYC ON SAT WITH COLD FRONT...AND
1/2 TO 3/4 INCH FARTHER EAST.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/SEARS
NEAR TERM...SEARS
SHORT TERM...SEARS
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...TONGUE
MARINE...GOODMAN/SEARS
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/SEARS






000
FXUS61 KOKX 010853
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
453 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE TO END THE
WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ON SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY POTENTIALLY
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LIGHT RAIN NOTED OVER SE CT AND FAR EASTERN LI EARLY THIS MORNING AS
WEAK VORT MAX CONTINUES TO PROGRESS TO THE NORTH AND EAST AND A
PERSISTENT NELY SURFACE FLOW KEEPS THE LOWER LEVELS VERY MOIST. AT
THE MOMENT...THE CWA REMAINS DEVOID OF ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT.
HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE FOR SOME PATCHY FOG FORMATION OVER INTERIOR
CT/NY NEAR DAYBREAK SO HAVE INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST.

ATTENTION FOR THE DAY REMAINS FOCUSED ON THE PROGRESSION OF A CLOSED
UPPER LVL LOW CURRENTLY NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER WESTERN
PA. GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONGST THE 00Z MODEL SOLUTIONS IS FOR THE LOW
TO TREK ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY...LINGERING THOUGH UNTIL
THURSDAY. NE FLOW KEEPS THE LOWER LVLS VERY MOIST...SO DESPITE THE
LACK OF ANY REAL SFC LIFT...STRONG FORCING ALOFT SHOULD WORK TO
PRODUCE SCT-NUM SHOWERS. EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SHOWERS IS THE
POSSIBILITY FOR MODERATE TO EVEN HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH THE
MESO MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST WILL OCCUR OVER EASTERN LONG ISLAND
AND SE CT...CORRESPONDING TO THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION OF THE
STRONGEST FORCING/VORT MAX BY THIS AFTN/EVENING. SO FOR POPS...AM
KEEPING LIKELY WORDING IN FOR AREAS GENERALLY EAST OF NYC
METRO...WITH CHC TO THE WEST.

A MIX OF CLOUD COVER...PCPN AND NE FLOW WILL RESULT IN TEMPS RESTING
RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR HIGHS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
PCPN CONTINUES THIS EVENING...WITH THE MAIN QUESTION ON THE ENDING
TIME. UPPER LEVEL LOW PIVOTS EAST...WITH THE MAIN FORCING GENERALLY
RESIDING OVER EASTERN AREAS OF THE CWA FOR THE NIGHT. AS
SUCH...BEGAN TO TAPER POPS BACK FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
NIGHT...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EVEN POSSIBLE BY 06Z WEST OF NYC.
CONFIDENCE RESTS WITH THE PCPN CONTINUING THOUGH OVER EASTERN LI/SE
CT. HOWEVER...WITH THE BULLS EYE OF MAIN FORCING MAINLY
OFFSHORE...SIDING MORE WITH PCPN BEING ON THE LIGHTER SIDE. 00Z NAM
AND ECMWF DO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS OVER THE
FAR EASTERN REACHES OF THE CWA...BUT WILL WANT TO SEE THE TREND FOR
THE DAY BEFORE SIDING WITH THE HEAVIER AMTS. LIGHT PCPN LINGERS JUST
OFFSHORE THEN DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...TAPERING OFF LATE IN THE DAY
AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW FINALLY EXITS THE REGION...BEING REPLACED
WITH RIDGING ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH FRI EVENING. THE CFP
AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL ARE STILL LINED UP FOR LATE FRI NIGHT INTO
SAT. THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THIS TIMING. POP HAS
BEEN INCREASED TO CAT FOR SAT...AND LIKELY POP ALSO CONTINUES INTO
EARLY SAT EVENING ACROSS SRN CT AND LONG ISLAND.

SUNDAY WILL BE DRY AS ALL OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE SHUNTED OFF TO THE
EAST. THEN RAIN CHANCES SHOULD RETURN FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING...MAINLY MON INTO MON NIGHT.

FOR HIGHS...BOTH FRI/SAT SHOULD SEE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S...THEN A
COOLER DAY ON SUNDAY WITH ONLY LOWER/MID 60S. SLIGHT MODERATION
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH...MAINLY 65-70. LOWS SAT
NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT DO NOT LOOK TO BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
FROST CONCERNS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PASSES OVER THE REGION OVER THE AREA TODAY AS A
VERY MOIST LOW LEVEL NE FLOW PREVAILS AT THE SURFACE. THIS RESULTS
IN MARGINAL VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF FCST PERIOD...THOUGH
AREAS OF IFR ARE LIKELY THIS MORNING.

LIGHT RAIN WITH A FEW EMBEDDED SHOWERS AND LOCALIZED TSRA POSSIBLE FOR
EASTERN SECTIONS INTO THIS EVENING.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE PERSISTENT NNE SFC FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OCNL GUSTS INTO THE UPPER TEENS FOR THE NY METRO EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON THOUGH NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAFS.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: UN-FORECAST FLUCTUATIONS IN CIG CATEGORY
EXPECT THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN VFR FOR
THE AFTN.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FCST.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: UN-FORECAST FLUCTUATIONS IN CIG CATEGORY
EXPECT THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN VFR FOR
THE AFTN.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FCST THOUGH DIRECTION MAY SWING RIGHT OF
040 MAGNETIC AT TIMES.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: UN-FORECAST FLUCTUATIONS IN CIG CATEGORY
EXPECT THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN VFR FOR
THE AFTN.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FCST.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES  SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: UN-FORECAST FLUCTUATIONS IN CIG CATEGORY
EXPECT THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN VFR FOR
THE AFTN.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FCST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: UN-FORECAST FLUCTUATIONS IN CIG CATEGORY
EXPECT THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN VFR FOR
THE AFTN.


KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: UN-FORECAST FLUCTUATIONS IN CIG CATEGORY
EXPECT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.EARLY THU MORNING...MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN -RA. E-NE WINDS
10-15 KT...WITH G 20 KT ALONG THE COAST.
.THU...BECOMING VFR. NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.FRI...VFR. SE-S WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.SAT...RAIN LIKELY - MVFR OR LOWER AT TIMES. SE WIND 10-15G20 KT.
.SUN...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN WATERS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
INCREASING NE FLOW. GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS
AFTN...WHILE SEAS GENERALLY BETWEEN 5 AND 7 FT ARE EXPECTED. ON
THE NON OCEAN WATERS...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS TODAY. COULD SEE OCNL
GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS IN THE BAYS AROUND LONG ISLAND AND EASTERN LONG
ISLAND SOUND...WITH THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME MORE PERSISTENT
TONIGHT. AS SUCH...A SCA MIGHT NEED TO BE ISSUED FOR THESE WATERS
TONIGHT/THURSDAY. THE REMAINING WATERS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA THROUGH THURSDAY. HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA FOR THE EASTERN
TWO-THIRDS OF THE OCEAN WATERS UNTIL THURS EVENING...WHILE THE
SCA CONTINUES FOR THE WESTERN PORTIONS JUST THROUGH TONIGHT.

FOR THU NIGHT AND BEYOND...HAZARDOUS OCEAN SEAS ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE FROM THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING...THEY SHOULD FALL BLW 5 FT
LATE FRI INTO FRI NIGHT...AND ONCE AGAIN RAMP UP THRU THE WEEKEND.
ELSEWHERE...THE ERN SOUND/BAYS COULD SEE SCA CONDS IN POST-FRONTAL W
FLOW ON SUNDAY. SCA CONDS ARE POSSIBLE ALL WATERS AGAIN ON MON AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SYS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL RESULTING IN HYDROLOGIC ISSUES IS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

RAINFALL TOTALS TODAY ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND CONNECTICUT WILL
RANGE FROM A QUARTER OF AN INCH TO THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH.
AREAS TO THE WEST WILL GENERALLY BE A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS.

QPF OF 3/4 TO 1 INCH LIKELY NW OF NYC ON SAT WITH COLD FRONT...AND
1/2 TO 3/4 INCH FARTHER EAST.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/SEARS
NEAR TERM...SEARS
SHORT TERM...SEARS
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...TONGUE
MARINE...GOODMAN/SEARS
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/SEARS






000
FXUS61 KALY 010826
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
426 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE
REGION WILL ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS...THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN DOMINATE...ALLOWING FOR
CLEARING SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING GUSTY RAIN SHOWERS
AND COOLER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 426 AM EDT...A CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL PA AND IS MOVING EASTWARD TOWARDS NEW JERSEY.
CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS SYSTEM IS PICKING UP MOISTURE OFF THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN AND PRODUCING SHOWERS OVER NEW ENGLAND. THESE
SHOWERS ARE SLOWLY TRACKING NORTHWEST WITHIN THE FLOW AROUND THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW...AND ARE MOVING ACROSS SRN VT/BERKSHIRES AND INTO
THE TACONICS THIS MORNING.

THE LATEST 06Z 3KM HRRR GUIDANCE AND THE 06Z RUN OF OUR LOCAL
HIRESWRF ALL SHOW THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS AND AFFECT OUR EASTERN ZONES. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE FAIRLY
LIGHT...BUT WILL BE NOTICEABLE DUE TO THE RECENT STRETCH OF DRY
WEATHER. THE RAIN SHOWERS MAKE MAKE IT AS FAR WEST AS THE CAPITAL
REGION/HUDSON VALLEY REGION...BUT MOST AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF
THERE WILL STAY DRY TODAY. ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS MAY AFFECT
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE AFTERNOON AS WELL.

IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF CLOUDS IN PLACE AND SFC OBS
SHOW A GOOD DEAL OF STRATUS AS WELL. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THESE
CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
ENTIRE DAY TODAY...AS THE UPPER LOW SLIDES EASTWARD TO OUR SOUTH TOWARDS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...KEEPING THE MOIST EASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE.

WITH THE CLOUDS/PRECIP...HAVE SIDED ON THE COOLER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR VALLEY
AREAS /UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY DEPART TO OUR EAST TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS TO DIMINISH FROM
WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING...WITH JUST A LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE
OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND LATE TONIGHT. IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
CLOUDY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT ONCE THE CLOUDS FINALLY START TO THIN OUT...ESP FOR ANY
AREAS THAT SEE RAINFALL. OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY LOOK TO BE IN THE 50S.

MORNING CLOUDS WILL BREAK FOR SUNSHINE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AS
THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST OF CAPE COD...AND WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN
AT 500 HPA. HIGH TEMPS LOOK TO REACH WELL INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70
FOR VALLEY AREAS.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH
RIDGING IN PLACE ALOFT AND WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA.
SKIES WILL BE CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A COOLER NIGHT ON THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING...WITH 40S IN MOST AREAS. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL ON FRIDAY DUE TO 850 HPA TEMPS AROUND 10 TO 11 DEGREES
C AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...WITH VALLEY HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN SETTING UP WITH A STRONG UPPER SYSTEM
DROPPING OUT OF CANADA AND DRAWING MOISTURE FROM THE SUBTROPICS AS A
LEADING UPPER IMPULSE TRACKS AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
MEAN EASTERN NORTH AMERICAN UPPER TROUGH.  THE UPPER IMPULSE GOES
NEGATIVE TILT AND THE COMBINATION OF THE UPPER DYNAMICS...MOISTURE
AND LOW LEVEL FORCING...IS EXPECTED TO BRING A SOAKING RAIN TO THE
AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. COOLING BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT..ALONG WITH WEST LOW LEVEL FLOW...COULD RESULT IN RATHER
EXTENSIVE CLOUDS INTO THROUGH SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS SUNDAY WITH SOME
LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE. THERE SHOULD BE A
PERIOD OF RELATIVE CLEARING SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT IN
MOST OTHER AREAS.

ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK AROUND TH SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH AND REINFORCE THE COOLER AIR OVER
OUR REGION AROUND THE MONDAY TIME FRAME...WITH ANOTHER POTENTIAL
PERIOD OF SHOWERS.  ALTHOUGH THE TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO AROUND OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ONCE THE COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY...THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR LOOKS TO REMAIN WEST OF
THE REGION...MORE PROXIMATE TO THE UPPER LOW IN CANADA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S SATURDAY...BUT COOLER IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. THEN...HIGHS AROUND 60 TO MID 60S THROUGH MONDAY...50S
IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS EAST...MOISTURE...CLOUDS AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY BUILD WEST AND NORTHWEST. MVFR CEILINGS HAVE
BUILT WEST INTO THE REGION...AND BASED ON SATELLITE AND RADAR
TRENDS...THE MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF THIS MORNING.
VISIBILITIES WILL BE VFR...MAYBE BRIEFLY MVFR IF AN ISOLATED SHOWER
AFFECTS THE REGION...WITH VCSH ONLY AT KPSF AND KPOU WHERE ANY
ISOLATED SHOWER COULD BE THROUGH THIS MORNING.

MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AND INTO THIS
EVENING...WITH SOME PERIODS OF VFR CEILINGS ABOVE 3000 FEET DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AT KALB AND KGFL...WHERE THE LEAST
CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE. VCSH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AT KPSF AND KPOU.
BY EVENING...THE MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD LINGER BUT VISIBILITIES SHOULD
CONTINUE MAINLY VFR.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT LESS
THAN 10 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VARIABLE WINDS BY THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TODAY...ALONG WITH A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS. RH VALUES WILL ONLY DROP
TO 65 TO 70 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS. RH
VALUES WILL RECOVER TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH FOG AND DEW
FORMATION AND NEARLY CALM WINDS.

CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY BREAK FOR SUNSHINE ON THURSDAY WITH RH VALUES
DROPPING TO AROUND 60 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS OF 5 MPH OR LESS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A NEARBY UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
TODAY INTO TONIGHT...MAINLY FOR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
REGION. BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL WILL BE TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OR
LESS...AND THIS LOOKS TO HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS...WHICH HAVE BEEN RUNNING QUITE LOW LATELY DUE TO A LACK OF
RECENT RAINFALL.

A MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT ON SATURDAY. MOST AREAS LOOK TO SEE AT LEAST A HALF INCH OF
RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM.  THIS RAINFALL WILL NOT CAUSE ANY HYDROLOGIC
ISSUES...AND WILL BE BENEFICIAL TO THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS








000
FXUS61 KALY 010826
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
426 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE
REGION WILL ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS...THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN DOMINATE...ALLOWING FOR
CLEARING SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING GUSTY RAIN SHOWERS
AND COOLER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 426 AM EDT...A CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL PA AND IS MOVING EASTWARD TOWARDS NEW JERSEY.
CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS SYSTEM IS PICKING UP MOISTURE OFF THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN AND PRODUCING SHOWERS OVER NEW ENGLAND. THESE
SHOWERS ARE SLOWLY TRACKING NORTHWEST WITHIN THE FLOW AROUND THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW...AND ARE MOVING ACROSS SRN VT/BERKSHIRES AND INTO
THE TACONICS THIS MORNING.

THE LATEST 06Z 3KM HRRR GUIDANCE AND THE 06Z RUN OF OUR LOCAL
HIRESWRF ALL SHOW THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS AND AFFECT OUR EASTERN ZONES. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE FAIRLY
LIGHT...BUT WILL BE NOTICEABLE DUE TO THE RECENT STRETCH OF DRY
WEATHER. THE RAIN SHOWERS MAKE MAKE IT AS FAR WEST AS THE CAPITAL
REGION/HUDSON VALLEY REGION...BUT MOST AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF
THERE WILL STAY DRY TODAY. ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS MAY AFFECT
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE AFTERNOON AS WELL.

IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF CLOUDS IN PLACE AND SFC OBS
SHOW A GOOD DEAL OF STRATUS AS WELL. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THESE
CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
ENTIRE DAY TODAY...AS THE UPPER LOW SLIDES EASTWARD TO OUR SOUTH TOWARDS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...KEEPING THE MOIST EASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE.

WITH THE CLOUDS/PRECIP...HAVE SIDED ON THE COOLER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR VALLEY
AREAS /UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY DEPART TO OUR EAST TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS TO DIMINISH FROM
WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING...WITH JUST A LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE
OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND LATE TONIGHT. IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
CLOUDY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT ONCE THE CLOUDS FINALLY START TO THIN OUT...ESP FOR ANY
AREAS THAT SEE RAINFALL. OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY LOOK TO BE IN THE 50S.

MORNING CLOUDS WILL BREAK FOR SUNSHINE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AS
THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST OF CAPE COD...AND WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN
AT 500 HPA. HIGH TEMPS LOOK TO REACH WELL INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70
FOR VALLEY AREAS.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH
RIDGING IN PLACE ALOFT AND WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA.
SKIES WILL BE CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A COOLER NIGHT ON THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING...WITH 40S IN MOST AREAS. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL ON FRIDAY DUE TO 850 HPA TEMPS AROUND 10 TO 11 DEGREES
C AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...WITH VALLEY HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN SETTING UP WITH A STRONG UPPER SYSTEM
DROPPING OUT OF CANADA AND DRAWING MOISTURE FROM THE SUBTROPICS AS A
LEADING UPPER IMPULSE TRACKS AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
MEAN EASTERN NORTH AMERICAN UPPER TROUGH.  THE UPPER IMPULSE GOES
NEGATIVE TILT AND THE COMBINATION OF THE UPPER DYNAMICS...MOISTURE
AND LOW LEVEL FORCING...IS EXPECTED TO BRING A SOAKING RAIN TO THE
AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. COOLING BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT..ALONG WITH WEST LOW LEVEL FLOW...COULD RESULT IN RATHER
EXTENSIVE CLOUDS INTO THROUGH SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS SUNDAY WITH SOME
LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE. THERE SHOULD BE A
PERIOD OF RELATIVE CLEARING SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT IN
MOST OTHER AREAS.

ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK AROUND TH SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH AND REINFORCE THE COOLER AIR OVER
OUR REGION AROUND THE MONDAY TIME FRAME...WITH ANOTHER POTENTIAL
PERIOD OF SHOWERS.  ALTHOUGH THE TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO AROUND OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ONCE THE COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY...THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR LOOKS TO REMAIN WEST OF
THE REGION...MORE PROXIMATE TO THE UPPER LOW IN CANADA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S SATURDAY...BUT COOLER IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. THEN...HIGHS AROUND 60 TO MID 60S THROUGH MONDAY...50S
IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS EAST...MOISTURE...CLOUDS AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY BUILD WEST AND NORTHWEST. MVFR CEILINGS HAVE
BUILT WEST INTO THE REGION...AND BASED ON SATELLITE AND RADAR
TRENDS...THE MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF THIS MORNING.
VISIBILITIES WILL BE VFR...MAYBE BRIEFLY MVFR IF AN ISOLATED SHOWER
AFFECTS THE REGION...WITH VCSH ONLY AT KPSF AND KPOU WHERE ANY
ISOLATED SHOWER COULD BE THROUGH THIS MORNING.

MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AND INTO THIS
EVENING...WITH SOME PERIODS OF VFR CEILINGS ABOVE 3000 FEET DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AT KALB AND KGFL...WHERE THE LEAST
CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE. VCSH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AT KPSF AND KPOU.
BY EVENING...THE MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD LINGER BUT VISIBILITIES SHOULD
CONTINUE MAINLY VFR.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT LESS
THAN 10 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VARIABLE WINDS BY THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TODAY...ALONG WITH A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS. RH VALUES WILL ONLY DROP
TO 65 TO 70 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS. RH
VALUES WILL RECOVER TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH FOG AND DEW
FORMATION AND NEARLY CALM WINDS.

CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY BREAK FOR SUNSHINE ON THURSDAY WITH RH VALUES
DROPPING TO AROUND 60 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS OF 5 MPH OR LESS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A NEARBY UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
TODAY INTO TONIGHT...MAINLY FOR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
REGION. BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL WILL BE TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OR
LESS...AND THIS LOOKS TO HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS...WHICH HAVE BEEN RUNNING QUITE LOW LATELY DUE TO A LACK OF
RECENT RAINFALL.

A MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT ON SATURDAY. MOST AREAS LOOK TO SEE AT LEAST A HALF INCH OF
RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM.  THIS RAINFALL WILL NOT CAUSE ANY HYDROLOGIC
ISSUES...AND WILL BE BENEFICIAL TO THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS







000
FXUS61 KOKX 010757
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
357 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE TO END THE
WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ON SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY POTENTIALLY
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LIGHT RAIN NOTED OVER SE CT AND FAR EASTERN LI EARLY THIS MORNING AS
WEAK VORT MAX CONTINUES TO PROGRESS TO THE NORTH AND EAST AND A
PERSISTENT NELY SURFACE FLOW KEEPS THE LOWER LEVELS VERY MOIST. AT
THE MOMENT...THE CWA REMAINS DEVOID OF ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT.
HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE FOR SOME PATCHY FOG FORMATION OVER INTERIOR
CT/NY NEAR DAYBREAK SO HAVE INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST.

ATTENTION FOR THE DAY REMAINS FOCUSED ON THE PROGRESSION OF A CLOSED
UPPER LVL LOW CURRENTLY NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER WESTERN
PA. GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONGST THE 00Z MODEL SOLUTIONS IS FOR THE LOW
TO TREK ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY...LINGERING THOUGH UNTIL
THURSDAY. NE FLOW KEEPS THE LOWER LVLS VERY MOIST...SO DESPITE THE
LACK OF ANY REAL SFC LIFT...STRONG FORCING ALOFT SHOULD WORK TO
PRODUCE SCT-NUM SHOWERS. EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SHOWERS IS THE
POSSIBILITY FOR MODERATE TO EVEN HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH THE
MESO MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST WILL OCCUR OVER EASTERN LONG ISLAND
AND SE CT...CORRESPONDING TO THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION OF THE
STRONGEST FORCING/VORT MAX BY THIS AFTN/EVENING. SO FOR POPS...AM
KEEPING LIKELY WORDING IN FOR AREAS GENERALLY EAST OF NYC
METRO...WITH CHC TO THE WEST.

A MIX OF CLOUD COVER...PCPN AND NE FLOW WILL RESULT IN TEMPS RESTING
RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR HIGHS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
PCPN CONTINUES THIS EVENING...WITH THE MAIN QUESTION ON THE ENDING
TIME. UPPER LEVEL LOW PIVOTS EAST...WITH THE MAIN FORCING GENERALLY
RESIDING OVER EASTERN AREAS OF THE CWA FOR THE NIGHT. AS
SUCH...BEGAN TO TAPER POPS BACK FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
NIGHT...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EVEN POSSIBLE BY 06Z WEST OF NYC.
CONFIDENCE RESTS WITH THE PCPN CONTINUING THOUGH OVER EASTERN LI/SE
CT. HOWEVER...WITH THE BULLS EYE OF MAIN FORCING MAINLY
OFFSHORE...SIDING MORE WITH PCPN BEING ON THE LIGHTER SIDE. 00Z NAM
AND ECMWF DO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS OVER THE
FAR EASTERN REACHES OF THE CWA...BUT WILL WANT TO SEE THE TREND FOR
THE DAY BEFORE SIDING WITH THE HEAVIER AMTS. LIGHT PCPN LINGERS JUST
OFFSHORE THEN DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...TAPERING OFF LATE IN THE DAY
AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW FINALLY EXITS THE REGION...BEING REPLACED
WITH RIDGING ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH FRI EVENING. THE CFP
AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL ARE STILL LINED UP FOR LATE FRI NIGHT INTO
SAT. THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THIS TIMING. POP HAS
BEEN INCREASED TO CAT FOR SAT...AND LIKELY POP ALSO CONTINUES INTO
EARLY SAT EVENING ACROSS SRN CT AND LONG ISLAND.

SUNDAY WILL BE DRY AS ALL OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE SHUNTED OFF TO THE
EAST. THEN RAIN CHANCES SHOULD RETURN FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING...MAINLY MON INTO MON NIGHT.

FOR HIGHS...BOTH FRI/SAT SHOULD SEE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S...THEN A
COOLER DAY ON SUNDAY WITH ONLY LOWER/MID 60S. SLIGHT MODERATION
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH...MAINLY 65-70. LOWS SAT
NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT DO NOT LOOK TO BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
FROST CONCERNS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE REGION ALONG WITH A VERY MOIST LOW
LEVEL NE FLOW AROUND LOW PRESSURE, WELL OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC, WILL
KEEP THE REGION IS IFR TO MARGINAL VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF
FCST PERIOD.

MARGINAL CIGS WILL FLUCTUATE TO IFR AT TIMES THIS MORNING. BEING
OPTIMISTIC WITH VFR THIS AFTN FOR WESTERN PORTIONS INCLUDING THE
NY METRO. CONFIDENCE ON THIS IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

LIGHT RAIN WITH A FEW EMBEDDED SHOWERS AND LOCALIZED TSRA WILL
PREVAIL FOR EASTERN SECTIONS INTO THIS EVENING.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE PERSISTENT NNE SFC FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OCNL GUSTS INTO THE UPPER TEENS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH NOT
INCLUDED IN THE TAFS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.EARLY THU MORNING...MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN -RA. E-NE WINDS
10-15 KT...WITH G 20 KT ALONG THE COAST.
.THU...BECOMING VFR. NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.FRI...VFR. SE-S WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.SAT...RAIN LIKELY - MVFR OR LOWER AT TIMES. SE WIND 10-15G20 KT.
.SUN...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN WATERS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
INCREASING NE FLOW. GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS
AFTN...WHILE SEAS GENERALLY BETWEEN 5 AND 7 FT ARE EXPECTED. ON
THE NON OCEAN WATERS...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS TODAY. COULD SEE OCNL
GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS IN THE BAYS AROUND LONG ISLAND AND EASTERN LONG
ISLAND SOUND...WITH THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME MORE PERSISTENT
TONIGHT. AS SUCH...A SCA MIGHT NEED TO BE ISSUED FOR THESE WATERS
TONIGHT/THURSDAY. THE REMAINING WATERS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA THROUGH THURSDAY. HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA FOR THE EASTERN
TWO-THIRDS OF THE OCEAN WATERS UNTIL THURS EVENING...WHILE THE
SCA CONTINUES FOR THE WESTERN PORTIONS JUST THROUGH TONIGHT.

FOR THU NIGHT AND BEYOND...HAZARDOUS OCEAN SEAS ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE FROM THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING...THEY SHOULD FALL BLW 5 FT
LATE FRI INTO FRI NIGHT...AND ONCE AGAIN RAMP UP THRU THE WEEKEND.
ELSEWHERE...THE ERN SOUND/BAYS COULD SEE SCA CONDS IN POST-FRONTAL W
FLOW ON SUNDAY. SCA CONDS ARE POSSIBLE ALL WATERS AGAIN ON MON AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SYS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL RESULTING IN HYDROLOGIC ISSUES IS
CURRENTLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

RAINFALL TOTALS TODAY ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND CONNECTICUT WILL
RANGE FROM A QUARTER OF AN INCH TO THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH.
AREAS TO THE WEST WILL GENERALLY BE A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS.

QPF OF 3/4 TO 1 INCH LIKELY NW OF NYC ON SAT WITH COLD FRONT...AND
1/2 TO 3/4 INCH FARTHER EAST.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/SEARS
NEAR TERM...SEARS
SHORT TERM...SEARS
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...TONGUE
MARINE...GOODMAN/SEARS
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/SEARS







000
FXUS61 KOKX 010757
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
357 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE TO END THE
WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ON SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY POTENTIALLY
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LIGHT RAIN NOTED OVER SE CT AND FAR EASTERN LI EARLY THIS MORNING AS
WEAK VORT MAX CONTINUES TO PROGRESS TO THE NORTH AND EAST AND A
PERSISTENT NELY SURFACE FLOW KEEPS THE LOWER LEVELS VERY MOIST. AT
THE MOMENT...THE CWA REMAINS DEVOID OF ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT.
HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE FOR SOME PATCHY FOG FORMATION OVER INTERIOR
CT/NY NEAR DAYBREAK SO HAVE INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST.

ATTENTION FOR THE DAY REMAINS FOCUSED ON THE PROGRESSION OF A CLOSED
UPPER LVL LOW CURRENTLY NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER WESTERN
PA. GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONGST THE 00Z MODEL SOLUTIONS IS FOR THE LOW
TO TREK ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY...LINGERING THOUGH UNTIL
THURSDAY. NE FLOW KEEPS THE LOWER LVLS VERY MOIST...SO DESPITE THE
LACK OF ANY REAL SFC LIFT...STRONG FORCING ALOFT SHOULD WORK TO
PRODUCE SCT-NUM SHOWERS. EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SHOWERS IS THE
POSSIBILITY FOR MODERATE TO EVEN HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH THE
MESO MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST WILL OCCUR OVER EASTERN LONG ISLAND
AND SE CT...CORRESPONDING TO THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION OF THE
STRONGEST FORCING/VORT MAX BY THIS AFTN/EVENING. SO FOR POPS...AM
KEEPING LIKELY WORDING IN FOR AREAS GENERALLY EAST OF NYC
METRO...WITH CHC TO THE WEST.

A MIX OF CLOUD COVER...PCPN AND NE FLOW WILL RESULT IN TEMPS RESTING
RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR HIGHS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
PCPN CONTINUES THIS EVENING...WITH THE MAIN QUESTION ON THE ENDING
TIME. UPPER LEVEL LOW PIVOTS EAST...WITH THE MAIN FORCING GENERALLY
RESIDING OVER EASTERN AREAS OF THE CWA FOR THE NIGHT. AS
SUCH...BEGAN TO TAPER POPS BACK FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
NIGHT...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EVEN POSSIBLE BY 06Z WEST OF NYC.
CONFIDENCE RESTS WITH THE PCPN CONTINUING THOUGH OVER EASTERN LI/SE
CT. HOWEVER...WITH THE BULLS EYE OF MAIN FORCING MAINLY
OFFSHORE...SIDING MORE WITH PCPN BEING ON THE LIGHTER SIDE. 00Z NAM
AND ECMWF DO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS OVER THE
FAR EASTERN REACHES OF THE CWA...BUT WILL WANT TO SEE THE TREND FOR
THE DAY BEFORE SIDING WITH THE HEAVIER AMTS. LIGHT PCPN LINGERS JUST
OFFSHORE THEN DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...TAPERING OFF LATE IN THE DAY
AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW FINALLY EXITS THE REGION...BEING REPLACED
WITH RIDGING ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH FRI EVENING. THE CFP
AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL ARE STILL LINED UP FOR LATE FRI NIGHT INTO
SAT. THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THIS TIMING. POP HAS
BEEN INCREASED TO CAT FOR SAT...AND LIKELY POP ALSO CONTINUES INTO
EARLY SAT EVENING ACROSS SRN CT AND LONG ISLAND.

SUNDAY WILL BE DRY AS ALL OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE SHUNTED OFF TO THE
EAST. THEN RAIN CHANCES SHOULD RETURN FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING...MAINLY MON INTO MON NIGHT.

FOR HIGHS...BOTH FRI/SAT SHOULD SEE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S...THEN A
COOLER DAY ON SUNDAY WITH ONLY LOWER/MID 60S. SLIGHT MODERATION
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH...MAINLY 65-70. LOWS SAT
NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT DO NOT LOOK TO BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
FROST CONCERNS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE REGION ALONG WITH A VERY MOIST LOW
LEVEL NE FLOW AROUND LOW PRESSURE, WELL OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC, WILL
KEEP THE REGION IS IFR TO MARGINAL VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF
FCST PERIOD.

MARGINAL CIGS WILL FLUCTUATE TO IFR AT TIMES THIS MORNING. BEING
OPTIMISTIC WITH VFR THIS AFTN FOR WESTERN PORTIONS INCLUDING THE
NY METRO. CONFIDENCE ON THIS IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

LIGHT RAIN WITH A FEW EMBEDDED SHOWERS AND LOCALIZED TSRA WILL
PREVAIL FOR EASTERN SECTIONS INTO THIS EVENING.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE PERSISTENT NNE SFC FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OCNL GUSTS INTO THE UPPER TEENS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH NOT
INCLUDED IN THE TAFS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.EARLY THU MORNING...MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN -RA. E-NE WINDS
10-15 KT...WITH G 20 KT ALONG THE COAST.
.THU...BECOMING VFR. NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.FRI...VFR. SE-S WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.SAT...RAIN LIKELY - MVFR OR LOWER AT TIMES. SE WIND 10-15G20 KT.
.SUN...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN WATERS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
INCREASING NE FLOW. GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS
AFTN...WHILE SEAS GENERALLY BETWEEN 5 AND 7 FT ARE EXPECTED. ON
THE NON OCEAN WATERS...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS TODAY. COULD SEE OCNL
GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS IN THE BAYS AROUND LONG ISLAND AND EASTERN LONG
ISLAND SOUND...WITH THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME MORE PERSISTENT
TONIGHT. AS SUCH...A SCA MIGHT NEED TO BE ISSUED FOR THESE WATERS
TONIGHT/THURSDAY. THE REMAINING WATERS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA THROUGH THURSDAY. HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA FOR THE EASTERN
TWO-THIRDS OF THE OCEAN WATERS UNTIL THURS EVENING...WHILE THE
SCA CONTINUES FOR THE WESTERN PORTIONS JUST THROUGH TONIGHT.

FOR THU NIGHT AND BEYOND...HAZARDOUS OCEAN SEAS ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE FROM THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING...THEY SHOULD FALL BLW 5 FT
LATE FRI INTO FRI NIGHT...AND ONCE AGAIN RAMP UP THRU THE WEEKEND.
ELSEWHERE...THE ERN SOUND/BAYS COULD SEE SCA CONDS IN POST-FRONTAL W
FLOW ON SUNDAY. SCA CONDS ARE POSSIBLE ALL WATERS AGAIN ON MON AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SYS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL RESULTING IN HYDROLOGIC ISSUES IS
CURRENTLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

RAINFALL TOTALS TODAY ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND CONNECTICUT WILL
RANGE FROM A QUARTER OF AN INCH TO THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH.
AREAS TO THE WEST WILL GENERALLY BE A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS.

QPF OF 3/4 TO 1 INCH LIKELY NW OF NYC ON SAT WITH COLD FRONT...AND
1/2 TO 3/4 INCH FARTHER EAST.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/SEARS
NEAR TERM...SEARS
SHORT TERM...SEARS
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...TONGUE
MARINE...GOODMAN/SEARS
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/SEARS






000
FXUS61 KBOX 010753
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
353 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL...DAMP CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE INTO THURSDAY MORNING...WITH
MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED TODAY. DRY WEATHER RETURNS LATER
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE REGION.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER PENNSYLVANIA MOVES EASTWARD OVER SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND TODAY.  COMBINED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL
SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET...AN INVERTED TROUGH SHOULD DEVELOP JUST WEST
OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS WILL CREATE A DEEP LAYER OF LIFT THAT
WILL ALLOW RAIN TO BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW BRINGS IN PLENTY OF COOL MOIST AIR IN
OFF THE OCEAN AND PWATS ARE 125 TO 175 PERCENT OF NORMAL FOR EARLY
OCTOBER.  THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MUCH NEEDED STEADY RAINFALL ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA WITH ROUGHLY HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH OF RAIN
EXPECTED IN MOST LOCATIONS.  HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WHERE BANDS
OF HEAVIER RAIN SET UP.  WHILE WE CAN/T DETERMINE EXACTLY WHERE
THESE BANDS WILL DEVELOP...THE BEST CHANCE FOR HIGHER RAINFALL
AMOUNTS LOOKS TO BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST MASS WHERE RAIN WILL LAST THE
LONGEST BEFORE THE LOW PULLS AWAY TO THE EAST.

USED LOCALLY PRODUCED BIAS CORRECTED MOS FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY
WHICH WILL REMAIN COOL AROUND 60 DEGREES FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...

TONIGHT...STEADY RAIN WILL COME TO AN END SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST
AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE REGION.  RAIN IS LIKELY
TO CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN MA AND RI THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
CONTINUED EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE
ALLOWING FOR LOW CLOUDS...DRIZZLE...AND FOG TO REMAIN ACROSS THE
REGION.  LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE 50S.

THURSDAY...WILL START TO SEE SOME DRYING...PARTICULARLY IN THE WEST
AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN.  CAPE AND ISLANDS WILL BE LAST
TO LOSE THE MOISTURE BUT CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN BREAKING UP BY THE END
OF THE DAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN WITH HIGHS AROUND
60...EXCEPT FOR THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY WHERE THEY MAY CLIMB INTO THE
MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

BIG PICTURE... ALASKA SHORTWAVE DIGS OVER THE WESTERN USA/CANADA AND
KICKS THE ESTABLISHED UPPER TROUGH EAST TO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
BRINGS A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE EASTERN USA WITH BELOW
NORMAL HEIGHTS WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN USA.

EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW...A CLOSED LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND MOVES OFF
THROUGH THE MARITIMES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

THE DAILIES...

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OVER NEW
ENGLAND. CROSS SECTIONS OF RH SHOW DRYING IN MOST LAYERS THURSDAY
NIGHT BUT THEN AN INCREASING LAYER OF MOISTURE BELOW 800 MB BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SUGGESTS CLEARING...BUT FOLLOWED BY
INCREASING LOW CLOUDS AGAIN DURING FRIDAY.  RH CHARTS FROM THE GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW CLOUD MOISTURE BEING PUSHED WEST ACROSS THE GULF OF
MAINE FROM THE DEPARTING COASTAL LOW...AND INTO SOUTHEAST NH/EASTERN
MASS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BY FRIDAY NIGHT THE SAME MODELS SHOW LIGHT
PCPN OVER THIS AREA...SUGGESTING SPRINKLES OR DRIZZLE.

WE WILL HAVE A DRY FORECAST DURING THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BUT
WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH
FOG/DRIZZLE AND IN EAST COASTAL AREAS A CHANCE FOR MEASUREABLE PCPN.

LIGHT EAST WINDS WILL LIMIT MIXING...AND TEMPS IN THIS SHALLOW LAYER
WILL SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE 60S...COOLEST NEAR THE EAST MASS COAST
AND WARMEST IN THE CT VALLEY.

SATURDAY... THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DEEPENS
AS IT MOVES IT.  THE TROUGH USES A 110 KNOT JET TO PUSH A COLD FRONT
EAST TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. TEMPERATURE PROFILES SHOW A STRONG THERMAL
GRADIANT ACROSS THE FRONT. THE DEEPENING OF THE TROUGH ALSO TURNS
THE UPPER FLOW OVER NEW ENGLAND MORE FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
DRAWING MOISTURE NORTH...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO
REACH 1.5 TO 1.6 INCHES.  STABILITY PARAMETERS ARE LESS THAN
MARGINAL...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE 5C/KM OR LESS AND TOTALS ARE
LESS THAN 44.

FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE LIKELY POPS BUT SLIGHTLY SLOWER
THAN PREVIOUSLY. THIS SLOWER TIMING ALIGNS WITH SIMILAR TRENDS IN
THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH WINDSHIFT IN THE CT VALLEY 2 PM TO 8 PM AND
IN THE COASTAL PLAIN 8 PM TO MIDNIGHT.

SUNDAY-MONDAY-TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE MOVES NORTH OF OUR AREA
SUNDAY...BUT THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
CONTOUR HEIGHTS AT 500 MB ARE BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND BUT THEN
MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL DURING THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.  SUNDAY
AND MONDAY LOOK DRY WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS.  THE TROUGH AXIS
EJECTS NORTHEAST BY TUESDAY AND MAY SUPPORT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT
THAT TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 12Z...IFR CIGS LIKELY IN LOW CLOUDS AND SCT SHOWERS.  VSBYS
ARE MAINLY VFR WITH SOME MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN PATCHY DRIZZLE AND
LOCALIZED FOG.

TODAY...IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THOUGH MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN WIDESPREAD RAIN. A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IS POSSIBLE
BEGINNING IN THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY AS RAIN ENDS.

TONIGHT...IFR CONDITIONS IMPROVE SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST WITH THE
MOST IMPROVEMENT TOWARDS DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

THURSDAY...AREAS OF IFR /MAINLY IN THE EAST/ WILL IMPROVE TO VFR.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...VFR. AREAS OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN PATCHY FOG
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.  AREAS OF IFR CIGS MOVE WEST OFF THE OCEAN
INTO EAST COASTAL MASSACHUSETTS INCLUDING THE CAPE AND ISLANDS LATE
FRIDAY AND MORE LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY...IFR CIGS FROM THE WORCESTER HILLS EAST DURING THE
MORNING. VFR FARTHER WEST TO START THE DAY BUT LOWERING TO MVFR AND
SCATTERED IFR AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE IN THE DAY AND BRINGS
SHOWERS.  WIND SHIFTS FROM SOUTH DURING THE DAY TO WEST BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT LATE IN THE DAY AND EARLY AT NIGHT.

SUNDAY...VFR WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION WITH FAIR WEATHER.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE

PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY GUSTING
TO AROUND 25 KTS BY ABOUT MIDDAY TODAY. SEAS CONTINUE TO
INCREASE...PARTICULARLY ON THE NORTHEASTERN WATERS AND INTO BOSTON
HARBOR AND CAPE COD BAY. ADDED ALL THE WATERS EXCEPT FOR
NARRAGANSETT BAY TO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR BOTH WINDS AND
SEAS AND ALL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH
THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING 20 TO 25 KNOTS WILL
MAINTAIN 5 TO 9 FOOT SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS AND EXPOSED EASTERN
WATERS SUCH AS MASSACHUSETTS BAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE
NEEDED. FOG AND LOW CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE GULF OF MAINE MAY
CREATE POOR VSBYS FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY... LINGERING POOR VSBYS SATURDAY MORNING IN FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATER IN THE DAY AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES WITH SHOWERS.  SOUTH WINDS WILL GUST 25 TO 30 KNOTS
DURING THE DAY AND EVENING...SHIFTING TO WEST AFTER THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.  SEAS WILL CONTINUE AT 5 TO 8 FEET ON
THE OUTER WATERS AND OTHER EXPOSED WATERS.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS
LIKELY.

SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH A LITTLE BUT STILL ROUGH. SEAS WILL
LINGER AT 5 TO 7 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL GUST TO 25 KNOTS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ232.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ233-234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ230.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ231.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/RLG
NEAR TERM...RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/RLG
MARINE...WTB/RLG



000
FXUS61 KOKX 010559
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
159 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH MID WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ON
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY POTENTIALLY ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM DURING
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LIGHT PCPN NOTED OVER EASTERN AREA...PUSHING TO THE NORTH AS WEAK
VORT MAX WORKS ITS WAY INTO NEW ENGLAND. WILL BE WATCHING PCPN
OVER EASTERN PA AS IT SLOWLY PUSHES TO THE EAST AND
NORTH...ASSOCIATED WITH A MUCH MORE DEFINED UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE.
WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHC POPS OVER WESTERN AREAS...AND LIKELY OVER
EASTERN AREAS. OTHERWISE...CLOUDY SKIES AND INCREASING NE FLOW
CONTINUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
RAIN CONTINUES WEDNESDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE
STARTING TO SLOWLY TAPER OFF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVIER RAIN
HOWEVER THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE THIS OCCURS DUE TO
ITS MESOSCALE NATURE. THE 12Z MODELS HINT THAT IF THIS DOES
OCCUR...WITH WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF LONG ISLAND
AND CT.

CLOUDY SKIES AND AN EASTERLY-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OF MARITIME AIR
WILL PERSIST...WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE ON
WEDNESDAY.

POPS CONTINUES TO LOWER OVERNIGHT...BUT LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS
MAY PERSIST OVER EASTERN AREAS...AS UPPER LEVEL LOW CLOSES OFF AND
PUSHES EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NOT MANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED. LGT RAIN CHCS
REMAIN EARLY THU WITH THE BACKDOOR CDFNT...THEN HI PRES IS PROGGED
TO KEEP THE CWA DRY THRU FRI. THE CFP AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL ARE
STILL LINED UP FOR SAT. THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
THIS TIMING. POPS REMAIN LIKELY. TRIMMED BACK POPS FRI NGT AS MOST
OF THE PCPN IS TARGETED FOR SAT. DRY FOR SUN WITH ALL OF THE
MOISTURE SHUNTED OFF INTO ERN CANADA. HIGH TEMPS IN THE 60S STILL ON
TRACK. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST RAIN CHCS FOR THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK WITH THE UPR TROF APPROACHING. KEPT THE TIMING IN THE
GRIDS MAINLY MON-MON NGT CLOSER TO THE MORE CONSISTENT GFS. THE
ECMWF HOWEVER IS TRENDING SLOWER.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE REGION ALONG WITH A VERY MOIST LOW
LEVEL NE FLOW AROUND LOW PRESSURE, WELL OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC, WILL
KEEP THE REGION IS IFR TO MARGINAL VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF
FCST PERIOD.

MARGINAL CIGS WILL FLUCTUATE TO IFR AT TIMES THIS MORNING. BEING
OPTIMISTIC WITH VFR THIS AFTN FOR WESTERN PORTIONS INCLUDING THE
NY METRO. CONFIDENCE ON THIS IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

LIGHT RAIN WITH A FEW EMBEDDED SHOWERS AND LOCALIZED TSRA WILL
PREVAIL FOR EASTERN SECTIONS INTO THIS EVENING.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE PERSISTENT NNE SFC FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OCNL GUSTS INTO THE UPPER TEENS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH NOT
INCLUDED IN THE TAFS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.EARLY THU MORNING...MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN -RA. E-NE WINDS
10-15 KT...WITH G 20 KT ALONG THE COAST.
.THU...BECOMING VFR. NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.FRI...VFR. SE-S WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.SAT...RAIN LIKELY - MVFR OR LOWER AT TIMES. SE WIND 10-15G20 KT.
.SUN...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS THE AREA WATERS REMAIN
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND AN OFFSHORE LOW. THIS WILL
RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON THE
OCEAN WATERS. WINDS WILL GUST TO NEAR 25 KT AND SEAS WILL BUILD TO
4 TO 7 FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS. WILL EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ON THE OCEAN...SCA SEAS LIKELY THU-THU NGT. THEY MAY FALL BLW 5FT BY
FRI...BUT WILL ONCE AGAIN RAMP UP THRU THE WEEKEND.
ELSEWHERE...WINDS WILL BE CLOSE TO SCA LVLS THU...BUT SHOULD REMAIN
BLW FRI. SCA WINDS LIKELY SAT AND SUN. SCA COND POSSIBLE ALL WATERS
AGAIN ON MON AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS NYC...NORTHEASTERN
NJ...AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. RAINFALL ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND
CONNECTICUT WILL RANGE FROM A QUARTER OF AN INCH ACROSS WESTERN
PORTIONS TO NEAR 1 INCH ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PORTIONS. NO
HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED.

A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF RAIN POSSIBLE THU. AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN
POSSIBLE ON SAT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/JMC/MET
NEAR TERM...BC/MET
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...TONGUE/NV
MARINE...BC/JMC/MET
HYDROLOGY...BC/JMC/MET








000
FXUS61 KALY 010529
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
129 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE
REGION WILL ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS...THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN DOMINATE...ALLOWING FOR
CLEARING SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING GUSTY RAIN SHOWERS
AND COOLER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 129 AM EDT...A CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SITUATED OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. THE MOIST FLOW AROUND THIS SYSTEM IS
ALLOWING FOR RAIN SHOWERS OVER NEW ENGLAND...AND THESE ARE
STARTING TO SLOWLY MOVE W-NW TOWARDS SOUTHERN VT AND THE
BERKSHIRES. WILL ALLOW FOR HIGH CHC/LIKELY POPS ACROSS WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS THESE
SHOWERS WORK THEIR WAY INTO OUR REGION. THE SHOWERS MAY START TO
WORK INTO PARTS OF EASTERN UPSTATE NY TOWARDS DAYBREAK. RAIN WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT IN INTENSITY...AND WITH THE DRY CONDITIONS OF
LATE...ANY RAINFALL IS QUITE BENEFICIAL.

ELSEWHERE...IT SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY DRY OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER WILL BE IN PLACE...WITH LOW STRATUS BEING
REPORTED IN MANY LOCATIONS. WITH THE CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...TEMPS
WON/T DROP OFF TOO MUCH...WITH LOWS MAINLY RANGING FROM THE UPPER
40S TO UPPER 50S...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS IN THE HUDSON VALLEY AND
FAR SOUTHERN AREAS.



&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE UPPER LOW (WHICH IS SPARKING THE
CONVECTION FARTHER WEST) WILL MOVE TO A POSITION OVER SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS UPPER LOW WILL WORK
WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO SPAWN AREAS OF LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES INTO NW
CONNECTICUT WHERE LIKELY POPS CONTINUE ON WED...WITH
CHC POPS ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY EXTENDING INTO THE CATSKILLS
AND CAPITAL REGION. POPS DECREASE AS YOU HEAD FURTHER
NORTHWEST...BECOMING NEGLIGIBLE AS YOU REACH THE `DACKS.

LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECASTS WITH THE MODELS NOT
HANDLING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE (AND CLOUDS) VERY WELL. IN
GENERAL...WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE COOLEST TEMPERATURES /LOW-MID
60S/ IN SOUTH/EAST AREAS WITH SOME UPPER 60S TO PERHAPS 70 MORE
NORTH/WEST WHERE IT WILL BE DRIER.

CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AT LEAST WITH THE
SHOWERS COMING TO AN END AS THE UPPER LOW SLIDES TO THE EAST.
HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
REMAINS LIGHT EASTERLY. AGAIN...TOOK A BLEND OF GUIDANCE WITH REGARD
TO THE CLOUDS IMPACTING TEMPERATURES REMAIN. IN GENERAL, THURSDAY
WILL FEATURE HIGHS IN THE 60S. OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTH NIGHTS WON`T BE
TOO FAR FROM NORMAL -- 40S IN THE COOLER AREAS TO 50S FOR EVERYONE
ELSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAIN WEATHER EVENT IS DURING THIS PERIOD. A POTENT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL SWING THROUGH MAINLY ON SATURDAY, AND IN IT`S WAKE
MORE TYPICAL FALL WEATHER WILL BE SEEN. 12Z GUIDANCE IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT, SO FOR THE MOST PART I TOOK A BLEND OF GFS AND
EURO. DAILY DETAILS BELOW...

FRIDAY: HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN, SO IT WILL BE DRY. RIDGING ALOFT
MEANS IT SHOULD ALSO BE SUNNY AS IT LOOKS LIKE THE MOIST EASTERLY
FLOW SHOULD HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL,
TOUCHING 70F IN THE WARMER VALLEYS

SATURDAY: PRECIPITATION STARTS COMING IN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/FIRST
THING SATURDAY. LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL JET WITH
850MB WINDS 40-50KTS. COULD BE SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND SOME VALLEYS. OTHERWISE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE SYSTEM
WILL BE TAPPING SOME DECENT MOISTURE, SO A GOOD 8-12 HOURS OF
RAIN, WITH SOME EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS IS EXPECTED. THE CLOUDS
AND RAIN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S. INITIAL THINKING IS
THAT RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH ARE POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY: POST FRONTAL CONDITIONS WITH PERHAPS SOME GUSTY
WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS. SHOULD BE FAIRLY CLOUDY, THANKS TO LAKE
EFFECT MOISTURE STREAMING OFF LAKE ONTARIO AND ERIE, THOUGH THE
FARTHER SOUTHEAST YOU GO, THE MORE DOWNSLOPING AND BETTER CHANCE
FOR SOME SUNSHINE. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALLING TOWARD 0C BY
LATE IN THE DAY, SO FAIRLY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE
HAPPENING. HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S TO A FEW LOWER 60S IN THE FARTHER
SOUTH/EAST AREAS THANKS TO THE WARMING DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS. SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY, WITH THE COLDER AREAS DROPPING INTO THE 30S,
BUT LOOKS LIKE WINDS WILL STAY UP ENOUGH TO MITIGATE FROST
POTENTIAL.

MONDAY/TUESDAY: ANOTHER SYSTEM COMES INTO THE AREA. 12Z GUIDANCE
HAS MORE DIFFERENCES, SO KEPT WITH A MORE BROADBRUSH FORECAST FOR
BOTH DAYS SHOWING CHANCE LEVEL POPS AND A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS.
AGAIN A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES AS WELL. SEEMED LIKE
THE BEST WAY TO GO.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS EAST...MOISTURE...CLOUDS AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY BUILD WEST AND NORTHWEST. MVFR CEILINGS HAVE
BUILT WEST INTO THE REGION...AND BASED ON SATELLITE AND RADAR
TRENDS...THE MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF THIS MORNING.
VISIBILITIES WILL BE VFR...MAYBE BRIEFLY MVFR IF AN ISOLATED SHOWER
AFFECTS THE REGION...WITH VCSH ONLY AT KPSF AND KPOU WHERE ANY
ISOLATED SHOWER COULD BE THROUGH THIS MORNING.

MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AND INTO THIS
EVENING...WITH SOME PERIODS OF VFR CEILINGS ABOVE 3000 FEET DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AT KALB AND KGFL...WHERE THE LEAST
CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE. VCSH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AT KPSF AND KPOU.
BY EVENING...THE MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD LINGER BUT VISIBILITIES SHOULD
CONTINUE MAINLY VFR.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT LESS
THAN 10 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VARIABLE WINDS BY THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A PASSING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...BEFORE A COLD
FRONT BRINGS MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR
THE WEEKEND.

RH VALUES LOOK TO RECOVER TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SOME
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE AREA. EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 5 MPH.

RH VALUES WILL ONLY DROP TO 60 TO 70 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE...MAINLY FOR
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE REGION. NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS
WILL BE AROUND 5-15 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC RELATED ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK.

ANY SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL NOT PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED SATURDAY. THOUGH
RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE HEAVIER -- PERHAPS 3/4" OR SO --- NO
SIGNIFICANT RESPONSES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS POINT ON AREA RIVERS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL/NASH
HYDROLOGY...KL/NASH







000
FXUS61 KALY 010529
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
129 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE
REGION WILL ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS...THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN DOMINATE...ALLOWING FOR
CLEARING SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING GUSTY RAIN SHOWERS
AND COOLER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 129 AM EDT...A CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SITUATED OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. THE MOIST FLOW AROUND THIS SYSTEM IS
ALLOWING FOR RAIN SHOWERS OVER NEW ENGLAND...AND THESE ARE
STARTING TO SLOWLY MOVE W-NW TOWARDS SOUTHERN VT AND THE
BERKSHIRES. WILL ALLOW FOR HIGH CHC/LIKELY POPS ACROSS WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS THESE
SHOWERS WORK THEIR WAY INTO OUR REGION. THE SHOWERS MAY START TO
WORK INTO PARTS OF EASTERN UPSTATE NY TOWARDS DAYBREAK. RAIN WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT IN INTENSITY...AND WITH THE DRY CONDITIONS OF
LATE...ANY RAINFALL IS QUITE BENEFICIAL.

ELSEWHERE...IT SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY DRY OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER WILL BE IN PLACE...WITH LOW STRATUS BEING
REPORTED IN MANY LOCATIONS. WITH THE CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...TEMPS
WON/T DROP OFF TOO MUCH...WITH LOWS MAINLY RANGING FROM THE UPPER
40S TO UPPER 50S...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS IN THE HUDSON VALLEY AND
FAR SOUTHERN AREAS.



&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE UPPER LOW (WHICH IS SPARKING THE
CONVECTION FARTHER WEST) WILL MOVE TO A POSITION OVER SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS UPPER LOW WILL WORK
WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO SPAWN AREAS OF LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES INTO NW
CONNECTICUT WHERE LIKELY POPS CONTINUE ON WED...WITH
CHC POPS ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY EXTENDING INTO THE CATSKILLS
AND CAPITAL REGION. POPS DECREASE AS YOU HEAD FURTHER
NORTHWEST...BECOMING NEGLIGIBLE AS YOU REACH THE `DACKS.

LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECASTS WITH THE MODELS NOT
HANDLING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE (AND CLOUDS) VERY WELL. IN
GENERAL...WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE COOLEST TEMPERATURES /LOW-MID
60S/ IN SOUTH/EAST AREAS WITH SOME UPPER 60S TO PERHAPS 70 MORE
NORTH/WEST WHERE IT WILL BE DRIER.

CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AT LEAST WITH THE
SHOWERS COMING TO AN END AS THE UPPER LOW SLIDES TO THE EAST.
HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
REMAINS LIGHT EASTERLY. AGAIN...TOOK A BLEND OF GUIDANCE WITH REGARD
TO THE CLOUDS IMPACTING TEMPERATURES REMAIN. IN GENERAL, THURSDAY
WILL FEATURE HIGHS IN THE 60S. OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTH NIGHTS WON`T BE
TOO FAR FROM NORMAL -- 40S IN THE COOLER AREAS TO 50S FOR EVERYONE
ELSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAIN WEATHER EVENT IS DURING THIS PERIOD. A POTENT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL SWING THROUGH MAINLY ON SATURDAY, AND IN IT`S WAKE
MORE TYPICAL FALL WEATHER WILL BE SEEN. 12Z GUIDANCE IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT, SO FOR THE MOST PART I TOOK A BLEND OF GFS AND
EURO. DAILY DETAILS BELOW...

FRIDAY: HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN, SO IT WILL BE DRY. RIDGING ALOFT
MEANS IT SHOULD ALSO BE SUNNY AS IT LOOKS LIKE THE MOIST EASTERLY
FLOW SHOULD HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL,
TOUCHING 70F IN THE WARMER VALLEYS

SATURDAY: PRECIPITATION STARTS COMING IN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/FIRST
THING SATURDAY. LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL JET WITH
850MB WINDS 40-50KTS. COULD BE SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND SOME VALLEYS. OTHERWISE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE SYSTEM
WILL BE TAPPING SOME DECENT MOISTURE, SO A GOOD 8-12 HOURS OF
RAIN, WITH SOME EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS IS EXPECTED. THE CLOUDS
AND RAIN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S. INITIAL THINKING IS
THAT RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH ARE POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY: POST FRONTAL CONDITIONS WITH PERHAPS SOME GUSTY
WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS. SHOULD BE FAIRLY CLOUDY, THANKS TO LAKE
EFFECT MOISTURE STREAMING OFF LAKE ONTARIO AND ERIE, THOUGH THE
FARTHER SOUTHEAST YOU GO, THE MORE DOWNSLOPING AND BETTER CHANCE
FOR SOME SUNSHINE. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALLING TOWARD 0C BY
LATE IN THE DAY, SO FAIRLY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE
HAPPENING. HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S TO A FEW LOWER 60S IN THE FARTHER
SOUTH/EAST AREAS THANKS TO THE WARMING DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS. SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY, WITH THE COLDER AREAS DROPPING INTO THE 30S,
BUT LOOKS LIKE WINDS WILL STAY UP ENOUGH TO MITIGATE FROST
POTENTIAL.

MONDAY/TUESDAY: ANOTHER SYSTEM COMES INTO THE AREA. 12Z GUIDANCE
HAS MORE DIFFERENCES, SO KEPT WITH A MORE BROADBRUSH FORECAST FOR
BOTH DAYS SHOWING CHANCE LEVEL POPS AND A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS.
AGAIN A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES AS WELL. SEEMED LIKE
THE BEST WAY TO GO.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS EAST...MOISTURE...CLOUDS AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY BUILD WEST AND NORTHWEST. MVFR CEILINGS HAVE
BUILT WEST INTO THE REGION...AND BASED ON SATELLITE AND RADAR
TRENDS...THE MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF THIS MORNING.
VISIBILITIES WILL BE VFR...MAYBE BRIEFLY MVFR IF AN ISOLATED SHOWER
AFFECTS THE REGION...WITH VCSH ONLY AT KPSF AND KPOU WHERE ANY
ISOLATED SHOWER COULD BE THROUGH THIS MORNING.

MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AND INTO THIS
EVENING...WITH SOME PERIODS OF VFR CEILINGS ABOVE 3000 FEET DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AT KALB AND KGFL...WHERE THE LEAST
CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE. VCSH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AT KPSF AND KPOU.
BY EVENING...THE MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD LINGER BUT VISIBILITIES SHOULD
CONTINUE MAINLY VFR.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT LESS
THAN 10 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VARIABLE WINDS BY THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A PASSING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...BEFORE A COLD
FRONT BRINGS MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR
THE WEEKEND.

RH VALUES LOOK TO RECOVER TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SOME
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE AREA. EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 5 MPH.

RH VALUES WILL ONLY DROP TO 60 TO 70 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE...MAINLY FOR
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE REGION. NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS
WILL BE AROUND 5-15 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC RELATED ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK.

ANY SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL NOT PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED SATURDAY. THOUGH
RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE HEAVIER -- PERHAPS 3/4" OR SO --- NO
SIGNIFICANT RESPONSES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS POINT ON AREA RIVERS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL/NASH
HYDROLOGY...KL/NASH






000
FXUS61 KOKX 010349
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1149 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH MID WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ON
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY POTENTIALLY ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM DURING
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR THE EVENING AS PRECIPITATION IS MAINLY
OUTSIDE OF THE REGION...WITH ONE WEAKENING VORT MAX EAST OF
CONNECTICUT AND AN UPPER LOW AND VORT MAX WEST...ACROSS CENTRAL
NORTH PENNSYLVANIA.

A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS IN THE VICINITY THROUGH
TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES THE REGION. AS THIS LOW
APPROACHES THE AREA AND INTERACTS WITH THE SURFACE
TROUGH...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AFTER
MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND CONNECTICUT. POPS
WILL INCREASE TO LIKELY ACROSS THESE AREAS. FURTHER WEST...ACROSS
NYC...NJ AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...POPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
AS HIGH...AND WILL LIMIT POPS TO CHANCE. 12Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE PRECIPITATION...HOWEVER THERE
ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES WITH THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
RAIN CONTINUES WEDNESDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE
STARTING TO SLOWLY TAPER OFF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVIER RAIN
HOWEVER THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE THIS OCCURS DUE TO
ITS MESOSCALE NATURE. THE 12Z MODELS HINT THAT IF THIS DOES
OCCUR...WITH WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF LONG ISLAND
AND CT.

CLOUDY SKIES AND AN EASTERLY-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OF MARITIME AIR
WILL PERSIST...WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE ON
WEDNESDAY.

POPS CONTINUES TO LOWER OVERNIGHT...BUT LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS
MAY PERSIST OVER EASTERN AREAS...AS UPPER LEVEL LOW CLOSES OFF AND
PUSHES EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NOT MANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED. LGT RAIN CHCS
REMAIN EARLY THU WITH THE BACKDOOR CDFNT...THEN HI PRES IS PROGGED
TO KEEP THE CWA DRY THRU FRI. THE CFP AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL ARE
STILL LINED UP FOR SAT. THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
THIS TIMING. POPS REMAIN LIKELY. TRIMMED BACK POPS FRI NGT AS MOST
OF THE PCPN IS TARGETED FOR SAT. DRY FOR SUN WITH ALL OF THE
MOISTURE SHUNTED OFF INTO ERN CANADA. HIGH TEMPS IN THE 60S STILL ON
TRACK. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST RAIN CHCS FOR THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK WITH THE UPR TROF APPROACHING. KEPT THE TIMING IN THE
GRIDS MAINLY MON-MON NGT CLOSER TO THE MORE CONSISTENT GFS. THE
ECMWF HOWEVER IS TRENDING SLOWER.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER WELL OFFSHORE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
WITH A GENERAL E-NE FLOW...STRATUS AND SHOWERS.

CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO MVFR CITY TERMINALS AND IFR
ELSEWHERE OVERNIGHT INTO WED MORNING IN LOW STRATUS. CIGS WILL
LIKELY BE SLOW TO LIFT...AND LIKELY ONLY TO MVFR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

BANDS OF LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY OFFSHORE...EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
WORK ONSHORE OVER EASTERN TERMINALS AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHILE
BECOMING HEAVIER AND MORE NUMEROUS LATE TONIGHT THRU WED AFT. THIS
SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY BACK INTO NYC METRO TERMINALS...HIGHEST PROB
MID WED MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON. THERE IS A LOW PROB OF SPARSE
TSRA DURING THIS PERIOD.

NE WINDS OVERNIGHT...BECOMING N/NNE AND GUSTY DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. GUSTS INTO THE UPPER TEENS/LOWER 20S WED MORN INTO WED
AFT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WED NIGHT...MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN -RA. E-NE WINDS 10-15
KT...WITH G 20 KT ALONG THE COAST.
.THU...CHC MVFR AND -SHRA MAINLY AM. NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.FRI...VFR. SE-S WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.SAT...RAIN LIKELY - MVFR OR LOWER AT TIMES. SE WIND 10-15G20 KT.
.SUN...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A STRONG EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW OF 15 TO 20 KT HAS ALLOWED SEAS ON
THE OCEAN WATERS TO BUILD UP TO 4 TO 5 FT THIS EVENING. WIND GUSTS
ON THE OCEAN WATERS WERE APPROACHING SMALL CRAFT LEVELS AS THE
SURFACE WIND INCREASES. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT.

THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS THE AREA WATERS REMAIN
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND AN OFFSHORE LOW. THIS WILL
RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON THE
OCEAN WATERS. WINDS WILL GUST TO NEAR 25 KT AND SEAS WILL BUILD TO
4 TO 7 FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS. WILL EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ON THE OCEAN...SCA SEAS LIKELY THU-THU NGT. THEY MAY FALL BLW 5FT BY
FRI...BUT WILL ONCE AGAIN RAMP UP THRU THE WEEKEND.
ELSEWHERE...WINDS WILL BE CLOSE TO SCA LVLS THU...BUT SHOULD REMAIN
BLW FRI. SCA WINDS LIKELY SAT AND SUN. SCA COND POSSIBLE ALL WATERS
AGAIN ON MON AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS NYC...NORTHEASTERN
NJ...AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. RAINFALL ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND
CONNECTICUT WILL RANGE FROM A QUARTER OF AN INCH ACROSS WESTERN
PORTIONS TO NEAR 1 INCH ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PORTIONS. NO
HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED.

A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF RAIN POSSIBLE THU. AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN
POSSIBLE ON SAT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/JMC/MET
NEAR TERM...BC/MET
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...BC/JMC/MET
HYDROLOGY...BC/JMC/MET






000
FXUS61 KOKX 010349
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1149 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH MID WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ON
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY POTENTIALLY ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM DURING
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR THE EVENING AS PRECIPITATION IS MAINLY
OUTSIDE OF THE REGION...WITH ONE WEAKENING VORT MAX EAST OF
CONNECTICUT AND AN UPPER LOW AND VORT MAX WEST...ACROSS CENTRAL
NORTH PENNSYLVANIA.

A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS IN THE VICINITY THROUGH
TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES THE REGION. AS THIS LOW
APPROACHES THE AREA AND INTERACTS WITH THE SURFACE
TROUGH...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AFTER
MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND CONNECTICUT. POPS
WILL INCREASE TO LIKELY ACROSS THESE AREAS. FURTHER WEST...ACROSS
NYC...NJ AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...POPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
AS HIGH...AND WILL LIMIT POPS TO CHANCE. 12Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE PRECIPITATION...HOWEVER THERE
ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES WITH THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
RAIN CONTINUES WEDNESDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE
STARTING TO SLOWLY TAPER OFF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVIER RAIN
HOWEVER THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE THIS OCCURS DUE TO
ITS MESOSCALE NATURE. THE 12Z MODELS HINT THAT IF THIS DOES
OCCUR...WITH WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF LONG ISLAND
AND CT.

CLOUDY SKIES AND AN EASTERLY-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OF MARITIME AIR
WILL PERSIST...WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE ON
WEDNESDAY.

POPS CONTINUES TO LOWER OVERNIGHT...BUT LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS
MAY PERSIST OVER EASTERN AREAS...AS UPPER LEVEL LOW CLOSES OFF AND
PUSHES EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NOT MANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED. LGT RAIN CHCS
REMAIN EARLY THU WITH THE BACKDOOR CDFNT...THEN HI PRES IS PROGGED
TO KEEP THE CWA DRY THRU FRI. THE CFP AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL ARE
STILL LINED UP FOR SAT. THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
THIS TIMING. POPS REMAIN LIKELY. TRIMMED BACK POPS FRI NGT AS MOST
OF THE PCPN IS TARGETED FOR SAT. DRY FOR SUN WITH ALL OF THE
MOISTURE SHUNTED OFF INTO ERN CANADA. HIGH TEMPS IN THE 60S STILL ON
TRACK. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST RAIN CHCS FOR THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK WITH THE UPR TROF APPROACHING. KEPT THE TIMING IN THE
GRIDS MAINLY MON-MON NGT CLOSER TO THE MORE CONSISTENT GFS. THE
ECMWF HOWEVER IS TRENDING SLOWER.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER WELL OFFSHORE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
WITH A GENERAL E-NE FLOW...STRATUS AND SHOWERS.

CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO MVFR CITY TERMINALS AND IFR
ELSEWHERE OVERNIGHT INTO WED MORNING IN LOW STRATUS. CIGS WILL
LIKELY BE SLOW TO LIFT...AND LIKELY ONLY TO MVFR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

BANDS OF LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY OFFSHORE...EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
WORK ONSHORE OVER EASTERN TERMINALS AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHILE
BECOMING HEAVIER AND MORE NUMEROUS LATE TONIGHT THRU WED AFT. THIS
SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY BACK INTO NYC METRO TERMINALS...HIGHEST PROB
MID WED MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON. THERE IS A LOW PROB OF SPARSE
TSRA DURING THIS PERIOD.

NE WINDS OVERNIGHT...BECOMING N/NNE AND GUSTY DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. GUSTS INTO THE UPPER TEENS/LOWER 20S WED MORN INTO WED
AFT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WED NIGHT...MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN -RA. E-NE WINDS 10-15
KT...WITH G 20 KT ALONG THE COAST.
.THU...CHC MVFR AND -SHRA MAINLY AM. NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.FRI...VFR. SE-S WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.SAT...RAIN LIKELY - MVFR OR LOWER AT TIMES. SE WIND 10-15G20 KT.
.SUN...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A STRONG EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW OF 15 TO 20 KT HAS ALLOWED SEAS ON
THE OCEAN WATERS TO BUILD UP TO 4 TO 5 FT THIS EVENING. WIND GUSTS
ON THE OCEAN WATERS WERE APPROACHING SMALL CRAFT LEVELS AS THE
SURFACE WIND INCREASES. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT.

THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS THE AREA WATERS REMAIN
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND AN OFFSHORE LOW. THIS WILL
RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON THE
OCEAN WATERS. WINDS WILL GUST TO NEAR 25 KT AND SEAS WILL BUILD TO
4 TO 7 FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS. WILL EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ON THE OCEAN...SCA SEAS LIKELY THU-THU NGT. THEY MAY FALL BLW 5FT BY
FRI...BUT WILL ONCE AGAIN RAMP UP THRU THE WEEKEND.
ELSEWHERE...WINDS WILL BE CLOSE TO SCA LVLS THU...BUT SHOULD REMAIN
BLW FRI. SCA WINDS LIKELY SAT AND SUN. SCA COND POSSIBLE ALL WATERS
AGAIN ON MON AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS NYC...NORTHEASTERN
NJ...AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. RAINFALL ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND
CONNECTICUT WILL RANGE FROM A QUARTER OF AN INCH ACROSS WESTERN
PORTIONS TO NEAR 1 INCH ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PORTIONS. NO
HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED.

A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF RAIN POSSIBLE THU. AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN
POSSIBLE ON SAT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/JMC/MET
NEAR TERM...BC/MET
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...BC/JMC/MET
HYDROLOGY...BC/JMC/MET







000
FXUS61 KOKX 010208
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1008 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH MID WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ON
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY POTENTIALLY ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM DURING
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR THE EVENING AS PRECIPITATION IS MAINLY
OUTSIDE OF THE REGION...WITH ONE WEAKENING VORT MAX EAST OF
CONNECTICUT AND AN UPPER LOW AND VORT MAX WEST...ACROSS CENTRAL
NORTH PENNSYLVANIA.

A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS IN THE VICINITY THROUGH
TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES THE REGION. AS THIS LOW
APPROACHES THE AREA AND INTERACTS WITH THE SURFACE
TROUGH...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AFTER
MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND CONNECTICUT. POPS
WILL INCREASE TO LIKELY ACROSS THESE AREAS. FURTHER WEST...ACROSS
NYC...NJ AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...POPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
AS HIGH...AND WILL LIMIT POPS TO CHANCE. 12Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE PRECIPITATION...HOWEVER THERE
ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES WITH THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
RAIN CONTINUES WEDNESDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE
STARTING TO SLOWLY TAPER OFF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVIER RAIN
HOWEVER THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE THIS OCCURS DUE TO
ITS MESOSCALE NATURE. THE 12Z MODELS HINT THAT IF THIS DOES
OCCUR...WITH WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF LONG ISLAND
AND CT.

CLOUDY SKIES AND AN EASTERLY-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OF MARITIME AIR
WILL PERSIST...WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE ON
WEDNESDAY.

POPS CONTINUES TO LOWER OVERNIGHT...BUT LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS
MAY PERSIST OVER EASTERN AREAS...AS UPPER LEVEL LOW CLOSES OFF AND
PUSHES EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NOT MANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED. LGT RAIN CHCS
REMAIN EARLY THU WITH THE BACKDOOR CDFNT...THEN HI PRES IS PROGGED
TO KEEP THE CWA DRY THRU FRI. THE CFP AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL ARE
STILL LINED UP FOR SAT. THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
THIS TIMING. POPS REMAIN LIKELY. TRIMMED BACK POPS FRI NGT AS MOST
OF THE PCPN IS TARGETED FOR SAT. DRY FOR SUN WITH ALL OF THE
MOISTURE SHUNTED OFF INTO ERN CANADA. HIGH TEMPS IN THE 60S STILL ON
TRACK. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST RAIN CHCS FOR THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK WITH THE UPR TROF APPROACHING. KEPT THE TIMING IN THE
GRIDS MAINLY MON-MON NGT CLOSER TO THE MORE CONSISTENT GFS. THE
ECMWF HOWEVER IS TRENDING SLOWER.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER WELL OFFSHORE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
WITH A GENERAL E-NE FLOW...STRATUS AND SHOWERS.

CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO MVFR CITY TERMINALS AND IFR
ELSEWHERE OVERNIGHT INTO WED MORNING IN LOW STRATUS. CIGS WILL
LIKELY BE SLOW TO LIFT...AND LIKELY ONLY TO MVFR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

BANDS OF LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY OFFSHORE...EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
WORK ONSHORE OVER EASTERN TERMINALS AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHILE
BECOMING HEAVIER AND MORE NUMEROUS LATE TONIGHT INTO WED MORN.
THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY BACK INTO NYC METRO TERMINALS...HIGHEST
PROB MID WED MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON.

NE WINDS OVERNIGHT...BECOMING N/NNE AND GUSTY DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. GUSTS INTO THE UPPER TEENS/LOWER 20S WED MORN INTO WED
AFT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WED NIGHT...MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN -RA. E-NE WINDS 10-15
KT...WITH G 20 KT ALONG THE COAST.
.THU...CHC MVFR AND -SHRA MAINLY AM. NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.FRI...VFR. SE-S WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.SAT...RAIN LIKELY - MVFR OR LOWER AT TIMES. SE WIND 10-15G20 KT.
.SUN...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A STRONG EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW OF 15 TO 20 KT HAS ALLOWED SEAS ON
THE OCEAN WATERS TO BUILD UP TO 4 TO 5 FT THIS EVENING. WIND GUSTS
ON THE OCEAN WATERS WERE APPROACHING SMALL CRAFT LEVELS AS THE
SURFACE WIND INCREASES. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT.

THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS THE AREA WATERS REMAIN
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND AN OFFSHORE LOW. THIS WILL
RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON THE
OCEAN WATERS. WINDS WILL GUST TO NEAR 25 KT AND SEAS WILL BUILD TO
4 TO 7 FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS. WILL EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ON THE OCEAN...SCA SEAS LIKELY THU-THU NGT. THEY MAY FALL BLW 5FT BY
FRI...BUT WILL ONCE AGAIN RAMP UP THRU THE WEEKEND.
ELSEWHERE...WINDS WILL BE CLOSE TO SCA LVLS THU...BUT SHOULD REMAIN
BLW FRI. SCA WINDS LIKELY SAT AND SUN. SCA COND POSSIBLE ALL WATERS
AGAIN ON MON AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS NYC...NORTHEASTERN
NJ...AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. RAINFALL ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND
CONNECTICUT WILL RANGE FROM A QUARTER OF AN INCH ACROSS WESTERN
PORTIONS TO NEAR 1 INCH ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PORTIONS. NO
HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED.

A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF RAIN POSSIBLE THU. AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN
POSSIBLE ON SAT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/JMC/MET
NEAR TERM...BC/MET
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...BC/JMC/MET
HYDROLOGY...BC/JMC/MET







000
FXUS61 KBOX 010205
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1005 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL DAMP CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE INTO THURSDAY...WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED TOMORROW. DRY WEATHER RETURNS LATER
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE
REGION. A COLD FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY
BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT. GIVEN THE LACK OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS...REDUCED
POPS SOMEWHAT THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT WHILE WAITING
FOR THE SHOWERS ACROSS NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA TO MOVE EASTWARD
WITH THE UPPER LOW. WHILE THERE IS STILL THUNDER ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE SHOWERS...EXPECT INSTABILITY TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SO ANY THUNDER WILL BE ISOLATED IN
NATURE. OTHER THAN THE CHANGES TO POPS AND WEATHER...MADE ONLY
MINOR UPDATES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS HOWEVER...EXPECT INVERTED TROF
BETWEEN THE OFFSHORE LOW PRES AND THE E MOVING UPPER CUTOFF TO
BEGIN TO ENHANCE. NOTE INCREASE IN BAROCLINICITY AND DEFORMATION
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING...WHICH COMBINED WITH
DEEPENING MOISTURE FROM THE SFC TO H4 OR SO...SUSPECT INCREASE IN
MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...SUCH THAT IT/S LIKELY RAINING AT OVER MUCH OF THE
BOX CWA BY 12Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...AS UPPER LVL CUTOFF SHIFTS ALMOST DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD AND LOW PRES CONTINUES WELL TO THE SE OF THE
BENCHMARK...A MODERATE INVERTED TROF IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS PROVIDES
BETTER F-GEN AND EVEN A DEFORMATION AXIS FOR DEEPER LIFT ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS IS ALSO COMBINED WITH MODEST ELY LLJ WITH WIND
SPEEDS AT H85 AROUND 25-30 KT /2+ STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL/
AND PWATS TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES WHICH IS 1-2 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL FOR EARLY OCTOBER. THEREFORE...EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL ACROSS MOST OF SRN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE DAY...ITS NOT
UNTIL THE SFC OCEAN SYSTEM PULLS E LATE IN THE DAY THAT THE
MOISTURE BEGINS TO DECREASE. MANY AREAS MAY RECEIVE SOME OF THE
STEADY SOAKING RAINFALL THEY HAVE NEEDED FOR SOME TIME NOW WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGING 0.25-0.75 INCHES.
POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAIN ARE ALSO POSSIBLE GIVEN THE BANDING
POTENTIAL WHICH MAY BE ENHANCED THANKS TO K-VALUES IN THE LOW
30S...BUT IT/S DIFFICULT TO SAY EXACTLY WHERE THIS WILL SET UP. SO
WILL AT LEAST HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALIZED AREAS OF
1.0+ INCHES. FOR NOW...THE BEST CHANCE LOOKS LIKE SE MA...WHERE
THE INVERTED TROF HOLDS IN THE LONGEST...BUT IT/S NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION IT IS OBSERVED INLAND...ESPECIALLY WHERE AN E COMPONENT
TO THE FLOW ENHANCES UPSLOPE.

OTHER THAN THE RAINFALL...COOL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED AS MANY
LOCATIONS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES.

TOMORROW NIGHT...
RAINFALL WILL SLOWLY COME TO AN END FROM W TO E THROUGH THE
EVENING...POSSIBLY LINGERING ACROSS RI AND SE MA INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...WITH E COMPONENT TO THE FLOW...AND LOW
LVL MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE...EXPECT ANOTHER CHANCE FOR FOG
AND DRIZZLE AT TIMES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MIN TEMPS REMAIN
LIKELY IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS FRIDAY
* RAIN LIKELY SATURDAY
* COOLER AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
* MORE SHOWERS POSSIBLE TUESDAY

OVERVIEW...
MEDIUM RANGE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. MID
LEVEL LOW EXITS THE REGION TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...THEN MAIN
FEATURE WILL BE AN ANOMALOUS MID LEVEL TROF/LOW DIGGING INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND WESTERN GT LAKES BY SAT. A PIECE OF ENERGY
ROTATING AROUND THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL BRING A FRONTAL SYSTEM INTO
NEW ENG LATE SAT/SAT NIGHT WHICH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A PERIOD OF
RAIN WHICH MAY BE LOCALLY HEAVY...BUT EXACT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN.
AFTER SHORTWAVE EXITS...BROAD TROF WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA AND GT LAKES SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NEXT SHORTWAVE
AND FRONT APPROACHING NEXT TUESDAY. THERE ARE ALSO TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH THIS FRONT AS THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE
ECMWF WHICH WILL AFFECT TIMING OF POTENTIAL SHOWERS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DAILIES...

THURSDAY...
MID LEVEL LOW WILL GRADUALLY PULL AWAY FROM SE NEW ENG AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS INTO THE REGION.  CROSS SECTIONS SUGGEST MOCLDY SKIES DURING
THE MORNING AND CANT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST IN
PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW...THEN BECOMING PTSUNNY FROM WEST TO EAST
IN THE AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN. WITH NE FLOW... TEMPS WILL
HOLD IN THE 60S.

FRIDAY...
SNE WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH HIGH PRES OVERHEAD LEADING TO
MOSUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.  WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOUDS BACKING IN
FROM THE OCEAN ASSOCIATED WITH OFFSHORE STORM WHICH MAY BRING MORE
CLOUDS TO THE OUTER CAPE.  GFS AND NAM ARE SUGGESTING THIS INCREASED
CLOUD COVER WHILE ECMWF KEEPS CLOUDS TO THE EAST.  WITH CONTINUED
ONSHORE FLOW TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S...COOLEST E MA COAST.

SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF COLD FRONT INTO SNE LATE
SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. DECENT LOW LEVEL JET AND ANOMALOUS PWAT PLUME
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN TO SNE WHICH MAY BE
LOCALLY HEAVY...BUT THIS SYSTEM IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE. TIMING IS
STILL UNCERTAIN BUT IT APPEARS BULK OF RAIN WILL FALL DURING
SAT...WHICH MAY LINGER INTO SAT EVENING ACROSS E NEW ENG.

SUNDAY...
FRONT IS OFFSHORE SUNDAY WITH DRY WESTERLY FLOW WHICH WILL LEAD TO
SUNSHINE AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS. 850 MB TEMPS BELOW NORMAL AND WILL
LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS SUNDAY.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...
NEXT FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST BUT THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THE SHORTWAVE AND HOW PROGRESSIVE THE FRONT
WILL BE. EVEN FASTER GFS IS MAINLY DRY FOR MON SO WE ARE GOING WITH
A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW.  THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS WITH TUE AS
PROGRESSIVE GFS MOVES THE SHOWERS OFFSHORE WHILE MORE AMPLIFIED
ECMWF IS WET.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING.

THROUGH TONIGHT...
MAINLY IFR EAST OF AN IJD-ORH-MHT LINE...WITH MVFR WEST. THIS IS
MAINLY DUE TO CIGS THROUGH EVENING...BUT VSBYS MAY BEGIN TO DIP
AS WELL TONIGHT IN A MIX OF DRIZZLE/FOG/LIGHT RAIN. POSSIBILITY
OF PERIODIC IFR VSBYS. CIGS REMAIN LOW...BUT VSBYS LIFT DURING
THE MORNING HOURS AS RAIN BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD AND ALLOWS VSBYS
TO LIFT TO MAINLY MVFR/VFR. WINDS PICK UP NEAR SHORE IN THE
EAST...WITH A FEW GUSTS APPROACHING 20 KT AT COASTAL TERMINALS.

TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT....
MUCH OF THE SAME...MAINLY IFR/MVFR CIGS WITH SOME MVFR CONDITIONS
IN RAIN. EXPECT A VERY SLOW IMPROVEMENT FROM W TO E LATE IN THE
DAY AND OVERNIGHT...BUT THIS WILL BE MAINLY TOWARD RAIN
ENDING...WITH CATEGORIES ONLY REALLY IMPROVING DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS ON THU.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.
ALSO LOW CONFIDENCE OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE IMPROVEMENT IN THE MORNING.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. AREAS OF IFR IN THE MORNING SHOULD
IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON AS CIGS LIFT AND CLOUDS BREAK UP.

FRI...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR AS
SHOWERS MOVE INTO THE REGION. LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING. GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SHIFTING TO WEST SAT
NIGHT.

SUN...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT.

N-NE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
INTO TOMORROW...WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KT AT TIMES POSSIBLE
PARTICULARLY BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE OCEAN WATERS AS WELL AS RI/BI
SOUND FOR THESE WINDS...AND MAY NEED TO BE ADDED FOR THE WATERS
SURROUNDING CAPE COD FOR LATE IN THE DAY TOMORROW.

OTHERWISE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY DUE TO
INCREASING SWELL ALONE...WHICH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO REACH 7-8FT
BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON ON THE OCEAN WATERS. IT/S LIKELY THAT THESE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL NEED TO LINGER INTO THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THU INTO FRI...EXPECT NE WIND GUSTS TO 25-30 KT THU MORNING OVER SE
WATERS WHICH WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THU AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
CONTINUED NE WINDS FRI BUT SPEEDS LESS THAN SCA.  HAZARDOUS SEA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THU INTO FRI OVER OUTER WATERS.

SAT...SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH GUSTS
INCREASING TO 25-30 KT. WINDS SHIFTING TO WEST DURING SAT NIGHT.
HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER OUTER WATERS.  VSBYS MAY BE
REDUCED IN SHOWERS AND FOG.

SUN...WEST WINDS MAY GUST TO 25-30 KT IN POST FRONTAL AIRMASS.
HAZARDOUS SEAS CONTINUE OVER OUTER WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-251-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DOODY
NEAR TERM...KJC/DOODY/RLG
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/DOODY
MARINE...KJC/DOODY



000
FXUS61 KALY 010155
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
955 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED INTO
WEDNESDAY. DRY AND MILD WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A
POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY, BRINGING WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS. TYPICAL FALL
WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 945 PM EDT...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIP IS CURRENTLY
OCCURRING. HOWEVER...AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE ARE
DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...AND ARE
DRIFTING NORTHWEST. WE EXPECT SOME OF THIS RAIN TO REACH THE
BERKSHIRES...SE VT AND NW CT SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...EXPANDING
NORTH AND WEST INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...SE CATSKILLS...AND
POSSIBLY INTO PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL REGION CLOSER TO DAYBREAK.
AS SUCH...POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED IN THESE AREAS...WITH LIKELIES
TO THE S/E...AND CHC POPS EXTENDING TO THE CAPITAL REGION. MIN
TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID 50S IN MOST AREAS...AS CLOUDS
PREVAIL DESPITE SOME BREAKS INITIALLY.

IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE UPPER LOW (WHICH IS SPARKING THE
CONVECTION FARTHER WEST) WILL MOVE TO A POSITION OVER SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS UPPER LOW WILL WORK
WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO SPAWN AREAS OF LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES INTO NW
CONNECTICUT WHERE LIKELY POPS CONTINUE ON WED...WITH
CHC POPS ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY EXTENDING INTO THE CATSKILLS
AND CAPITAL REGION. POPS DECREASE AS YOU HEAD FURTHER
NORTHWEST...BECOMING NEGLIGIBLE AS YOU REACH THE `DACKS.

LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECASTS WITH THE MODELS NOT
HANDLING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE (AND CLOUDS) VERY WELL. IN
GENERAL...WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE COOLEST TEMPERATURES /LOW-MID
60S/ IN SOUTH/EAST AREAS WITH SOME UPPER 60S TO PERHAPS 70 MORE
NORTH/WEST WHERE IT WILL BE DRIER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 405 PM EDT...CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
AT LEAST WITH THE SHOWERS COMING TO AN END AS THE UPPER LOW SLIDES
TO THE EAST. HOWEVER, LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST AS THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS LIGHT EASTERLY. AGAIN, TOOK A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE WITH REGARD TO THE CLOUDS IMPACTING TEMPERATURES REMAIN.
IN GENERAL, THURSDAY WILL FEATURE HIGHS IN THE 60S. OVERNIGHT LOWS
BOTH NIGHTS WON`T BE TOO FAR FROM NORMAL -- 40S IN THE COOLER
AREAS TO 50S FOR EVERYONE ELSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 405 PM EDT...MAIN WEATHER EVENT IS DURING THIS PERIOD. A
POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SWING THROUGH MAINLY ON SATURDAY,
AND IN IT`S WAKE MORE TYPICAL FALL WEATHER WILL BE SEEN. 12Z
GUIDANCE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT, SO FOR THE MOST PART I TOOK A
BLEND OF GFS AND EURO. DAILY DETAILS BELOW...

FRIDAY: HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN, SO IT WILL BE DRY. RIDGING ALOFT
MEANS IT SHOULD ALSO BE SUNNY AS IT LOOKS LIKE THE MOIST EASTERLY
FLOW SHOULD HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL,
TOUCHING 70F IN THE WARMER VALLEYS

SATURDAY: PRECIPITATION STARTS COMING IN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/FIRST
THING SATURDAY. LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL JET WITH
850MB WINDS 40-50KTS. COULD BE SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND SOME VALLEYS. OTHERWISE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE SYSTEM
WILL BE TAPPING SOME DECENT MOISTURE, SO A GOOD 8-12 HOURS OF
RAIN, WITH SOME EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS IS EXPECTED. THE CLOUDS
AND RAIN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S. INITIAL THINKING IS
THAT RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH ARE POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY: POST FRONTAL CONDITIONS WITH PERHAPS SOME GUSTY
WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS. SHOULD BE FAIRLY CLOUDY, THANKS TO LAKE
EFFECT MOISTURE STREAMING OFF LAKE ONTARIO AND ERIE, THOUGH THE
FARTHER SOUTHEAST YOU GO, THE MORE DOWNSLOPING AND BETTER CHANCE
FOR SOME SUNSHINE. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALLING TOWARD 0C BY
LATE IN THE DAY, SO FAIRLY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE
HAPPENING. HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S TO A FEW LOWER 60S IN THE FARTHER
SOUTH/EAST AREAS THANKS TO THE WARMING DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS. SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY, WITH THE COLDER AREAS DROPPING INTO THE 30S,
BUT LOOKS LIKE WINDS WILL STAY UP ENOUGH TO MITIGATE FROST
POTENTIAL.

MONDAY/TUESDAY: ANOTHER SYSTEM COMES INTO THE AREA. 12Z GUIDANCE
HAS MORE DIFFERENCES, SO KEPT WITH A MORE BROADBRUSH FORECAST FOR
BOTH DAYS SHOWING CHANCE LEVEL POPS AND A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS.
AGAIN A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES AS WELL. SEEMED LIKE
THE BEST WAY TO GO.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT...WITH SOME
POCKETS OF IFR CIGS POSSIBLE...ESP AT KPSF. SOME SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN
OR DRIZZLE MAY ALSO REDUCE VSBYS INTO THE MVFR/IFR RANGE AT KPSF
AND POSSIBLY KPOU TOWARD 12Z/WED.

ON WED...EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CIGS TO PREDOMINATE. VSBYS SHOULD
RANGE FROM VFR TO OCCASIONAL MVFR AT KPSF/KPOU AND POSSIBLY
KALB IN AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE...WHILE REMAINING GENERALLY
VFR AT KGFL WHERE LITTLE IF ANY RAIN OR DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE E TO NE AT LESS THAN 5 KT THROUGH
DAYBREAK...TRENDING INTO THE NE TO N ON WED AT GENERALLY 5-10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A PASSING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...BEFORE A COLD
FRONT BRINGS MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR
THE WEEKEND.

RH VALUES LOOK TO RECOVER TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SOME
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE AREA. EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 5 MPH.

RH VALUES WILL ONLY DROP TO 60 TO 70 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE...MAINLY FOR
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE REGION. NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS
WILL BE AROUND 5-15 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC RELATED ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK.

ANY SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL NOT PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED SATURDAY. THOUGH
RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE HEAVIER -- PERHAPS 3/4" OR SO --- NO
SIGNIFICANT RESPONSES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS POINT ON AREA RIVERS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/NASH
NEAR TERM...KL/NASH
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...KL/NASH
FIRE WEATHER...KL/NASH
HYDROLOGY...KL/NASH







000
FXUS61 KOKX 010021
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
821 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH MID WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ON
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY POTENTIALLY ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM DURING
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR THE EVENING AS PRECIPITATION IS MAINLY
OUTSIDE OF THE REGION...WITH ONE VORT MAX EAST OF CONNECTICUT AND
AN UPPER LOW AND VORT MAX WEST...ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY THROUGH
TONIGHT...ALSO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL APPROACH THE REGION. AS
THIS LOW APPROACHES THE AREA AND INTERACTS WITH THE SURFACE
TROUGH...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AFTER
MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND CONNECTICUT. POPS
WILL INCREASE TO LIKELY ACROSS THESE AREAS. FURTHER WEST...ACROSS
NYC...NJ AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...POPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
AS HIGH...AND WILL LIMIT POPS TO CHANCE. 12Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE PRECIPITATION...HOWEVER THERE
ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES WITH THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.
THE NAM WAS AN OUTLIER WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS COMING CLOSE TO OR
EXCEEDING AN INCH OVERNIGHT ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA.
FOLLOWED MORE OF A GFS/SREF/CMC BLEND WITH GAVE THE EASTERN
SECTIONS AROUND A QUARTER TO HALF INCH.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT OVERCAST SKIES AND AN EASTERLY WIND. TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60. FOLLOWED A MAV/MET
BLEND FOR LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
RAIN CONTINUES WEDNESDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE
STARTING TO SLOWLY TAPER OFF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVIER RAIN
HOWEVER THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE THIS OCCURS DUE TO
ITS MESOSCALE NATURE. THE 12Z MODELS HINT THAT IF THIS DOES
OCCUR...WITH WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF LONG ISLAND
AND CT.

CLOUDY SKIES AND AN EASTERLY-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OF MARITIME AIR
WILL PERSIST...WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE ON
WEDNESDAY.

POPS CONTINUES TO LOWER OVERNIGHT...BUT LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS
MAY PERSIST OVER EASTERN AREAS...AS UPPER LEVEL LOW CLOSES OFF AND
PUSHES EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NOT MANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED. LGT RAIN CHCS
REMAIN EARLY THU WITH THE BACKDOOR CDFNT...THEN HI PRES IS PROGGED
TO KEEP THE CWA DRY THRU FRI. THE CFP AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL ARE
STILL LINED UP FOR SAT. THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
THIS TIMING. POPS REMAIN LIKELY. TRIMMED BACK POPS FRI NGT AS MOST
OF THE PCPN IS TARGETED FOR SAT. DRY FOR SUN WITH ALL OF THE
MOISTURE SHUNTED OFF INTO ERN CANADA. HIGH TEMPS IN THE 60S STILL ON
TRACK. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST RAIN CHCS FOR THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK WITH THE UPR TROF APPROACHING. KEPT THE TIMING IN THE
GRIDS MAINLY MON-MON NGT CLOSER TO THE MORE CONSISTENT GFS. THE
ECMWF HOWEVER IS TRENDING SLOWER.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER WELL OFFSHORE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
WITH A GENERAL E-NE FLOW...STRATUS AND SHOWERS.

CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FALL TO MVFR/IFR OVERNIGHT IN
LOW STRATUS...SHOULD LIFT TO MAINLY MVFR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BANDS
OF LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY OFFSHORE...EXPECTED TO BECOME HEAVIER AND
MORE NUMEROUS OVERNIGHT...WILL WORK ONSHORE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HEAVY SHOWER ACTIVITY LIKELY ACROSS EASTERN
TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT INTO WED AFTERNOON...AND POSSIBLE ACROSS
CITY TERMINALS WED MORN INTO AFTERNOON.

NE WINDS OVERNIGHT...BECOMING N AND GUSTY DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. GUSTS INTO THE TEENS TO AROUND 20 LATER WED MORN INTO
WED AFT.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGHEST PROB FOR SHRA BTWN 12-23Z. MVFR
VSBY POSSIBLE IN SHRA ACTIVITY.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGHEST PROB FOR SHRA BTWN 12-23Z. MVFR
VSBY POSSIBLE IN SHRA ACTIVITY.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGHEST PROB FOR SHRA BTWN 12-23Z. MVFR
VSBY POSSIBLE IN SHRA ACTIVITY.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGHEST PROB FOR SHRA BTWN 12-23Z. MVFR
VSBY POSSIBLE IN SHRA ACTIVITY.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGHEST PROB FOR SHRA BTWN 12-23Z. IFR
VSBY POSSIBLE IN SHRA ACTIVITY.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGHEST PROB FOR SHRA AFTR 06Z. IFR VSBY
POSSIBLE IN SHRA ACTIVITY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WED NIGHT...MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN -RA. E-NE WINDS 10-15
KT...WITH G 20 KT ALONG THE COAST.
.THU...CHC MVFR AND -SHRA MAINLY AM. NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.FRI...VFR. SE-S WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.SAT...RAIN LIKELY - MVFR OR LOWER AT TIMES. SE WIND 10-15G20 KT.
.SUN...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A STRONG EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW OF 15 TO 20 KT HAS ALLOWED SEAS ON
THE OCEAN WATERS TO BUILD TO AROUND 4 FT THIS EVENING...SO HAVE
INCREASED SEAS. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS THE AREA WATERS REMAIN
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND AN OFFSHORE LOW. THIS WILL
RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON THE
OCEAN WATERS. WINDS WILL GUST TO NEAR 25 KT AND SEAS WILL BUILD TO
4 TO 7 FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS. WILL EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ON THE OCEAN...SCA SEAS LIKELY THU-THU NGT. THEY MAY FALL BLW 5FT BY
FRI...BUT WILL ONCE AGAIN RAMP UP THRU THE WEEKEND.
ELSEWHERE...WINDS WILL BE CLOSE TO SCA LVLS THU...BUT SHOULD REMAIN
BLW FRI. SCA WINDS LIKELY SAT AND SUN. SCA COND POSSIBLE ALL WATERS
AGAIN ON MON AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS NYC...NORTHEASTERN
NJ...AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. RAINFALL ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND
CONNECTICUT WILL RANGE FROM A QUARTER OF AN INCH ACROSS WESTERN
PORTIONS TO NEAR 1 INCH ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PORTIONS. NO
HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED.

A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF RAIN POSSIBLE THU. AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN
POSSIBLE ON SAT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/JMC
NEAR TERM...BC
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...BC/JMC
HYDROLOGY...BC/JMC






000
FXUS61 KOKX 010021
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
821 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH MID WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ON
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY POTENTIALLY ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM DURING
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR THE EVENING AS PRECIPITATION IS MAINLY
OUTSIDE OF THE REGION...WITH ONE VORT MAX EAST OF CONNECTICUT AND
AN UPPER LOW AND VORT MAX WEST...ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY THROUGH
TONIGHT...ALSO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL APPROACH THE REGION. AS
THIS LOW APPROACHES THE AREA AND INTERACTS WITH THE SURFACE
TROUGH...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AFTER
MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND CONNECTICUT. POPS
WILL INCREASE TO LIKELY ACROSS THESE AREAS. FURTHER WEST...ACROSS
NYC...NJ AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...POPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
AS HIGH...AND WILL LIMIT POPS TO CHANCE. 12Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE PRECIPITATION...HOWEVER THERE
ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES WITH THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.
THE NAM WAS AN OUTLIER WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS COMING CLOSE TO OR
EXCEEDING AN INCH OVERNIGHT ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA.
FOLLOWED MORE OF A GFS/SREF/CMC BLEND WITH GAVE THE EASTERN
SECTIONS AROUND A QUARTER TO HALF INCH.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT OVERCAST SKIES AND AN EASTERLY WIND. TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60. FOLLOWED A MAV/MET
BLEND FOR LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
RAIN CONTINUES WEDNESDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE
STARTING TO SLOWLY TAPER OFF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVIER RAIN
HOWEVER THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE THIS OCCURS DUE TO
ITS MESOSCALE NATURE. THE 12Z MODELS HINT THAT IF THIS DOES
OCCUR...WITH WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF LONG ISLAND
AND CT.

CLOUDY SKIES AND AN EASTERLY-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OF MARITIME AIR
WILL PERSIST...WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE ON
WEDNESDAY.

POPS CONTINUES TO LOWER OVERNIGHT...BUT LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS
MAY PERSIST OVER EASTERN AREAS...AS UPPER LEVEL LOW CLOSES OFF AND
PUSHES EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NOT MANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED. LGT RAIN CHCS
REMAIN EARLY THU WITH THE BACKDOOR CDFNT...THEN HI PRES IS PROGGED
TO KEEP THE CWA DRY THRU FRI. THE CFP AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL ARE
STILL LINED UP FOR SAT. THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
THIS TIMING. POPS REMAIN LIKELY. TRIMMED BACK POPS FRI NGT AS MOST
OF THE PCPN IS TARGETED FOR SAT. DRY FOR SUN WITH ALL OF THE
MOISTURE SHUNTED OFF INTO ERN CANADA. HIGH TEMPS IN THE 60S STILL ON
TRACK. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST RAIN CHCS FOR THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK WITH THE UPR TROF APPROACHING. KEPT THE TIMING IN THE
GRIDS MAINLY MON-MON NGT CLOSER TO THE MORE CONSISTENT GFS. THE
ECMWF HOWEVER IS TRENDING SLOWER.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER WELL OFFSHORE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
WITH A GENERAL E-NE FLOW...STRATUS AND SHOWERS.

CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FALL TO MVFR/IFR OVERNIGHT IN
LOW STRATUS...SHOULD LIFT TO MAINLY MVFR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BANDS
OF LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY OFFSHORE...EXPECTED TO BECOME HEAVIER AND
MORE NUMEROUS OVERNIGHT...WILL WORK ONSHORE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HEAVY SHOWER ACTIVITY LIKELY ACROSS EASTERN
TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT INTO WED AFTERNOON...AND POSSIBLE ACROSS
CITY TERMINALS WED MORN INTO AFTERNOON.

NE WINDS OVERNIGHT...BECOMING N AND GUSTY DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. GUSTS INTO THE TEENS TO AROUND 20 LATER WED MORN INTO
WED AFT.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGHEST PROB FOR SHRA BTWN 12-23Z. MVFR
VSBY POSSIBLE IN SHRA ACTIVITY.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGHEST PROB FOR SHRA BTWN 12-23Z. MVFR
VSBY POSSIBLE IN SHRA ACTIVITY.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGHEST PROB FOR SHRA BTWN 12-23Z. MVFR
VSBY POSSIBLE IN SHRA ACTIVITY.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGHEST PROB FOR SHRA BTWN 12-23Z. MVFR
VSBY POSSIBLE IN SHRA ACTIVITY.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGHEST PROB FOR SHRA BTWN 12-23Z. IFR
VSBY POSSIBLE IN SHRA ACTIVITY.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGHEST PROB FOR SHRA AFTR 06Z. IFR VSBY
POSSIBLE IN SHRA ACTIVITY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WED NIGHT...MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN -RA. E-NE WINDS 10-15
KT...WITH G 20 KT ALONG THE COAST.
.THU...CHC MVFR AND -SHRA MAINLY AM. NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.FRI...VFR. SE-S WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.SAT...RAIN LIKELY - MVFR OR LOWER AT TIMES. SE WIND 10-15G20 KT.
.SUN...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A STRONG EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW OF 15 TO 20 KT HAS ALLOWED SEAS ON
THE OCEAN WATERS TO BUILD TO AROUND 4 FT THIS EVENING...SO HAVE
INCREASED SEAS. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS THE AREA WATERS REMAIN
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND AN OFFSHORE LOW. THIS WILL
RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON THE
OCEAN WATERS. WINDS WILL GUST TO NEAR 25 KT AND SEAS WILL BUILD TO
4 TO 7 FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS. WILL EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ON THE OCEAN...SCA SEAS LIKELY THU-THU NGT. THEY MAY FALL BLW 5FT BY
FRI...BUT WILL ONCE AGAIN RAMP UP THRU THE WEEKEND.
ELSEWHERE...WINDS WILL BE CLOSE TO SCA LVLS THU...BUT SHOULD REMAIN
BLW FRI. SCA WINDS LIKELY SAT AND SUN. SCA COND POSSIBLE ALL WATERS
AGAIN ON MON AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS NYC...NORTHEASTERN
NJ...AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. RAINFALL ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND
CONNECTICUT WILL RANGE FROM A QUARTER OF AN INCH ACROSS WESTERN
PORTIONS TO NEAR 1 INCH ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PORTIONS. NO
HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED.

A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF RAIN POSSIBLE THU. AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN
POSSIBLE ON SAT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/JMC
NEAR TERM...BC
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...BC/JMC
HYDROLOGY...BC/JMC







000
FXUS61 KALY 010003
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
803 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED INTO
WEDNESDAY. DRY AND MILD WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A
POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY, BRINGING WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS. TYPICAL FALL
WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM EDT...SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SCHOHARIE COUNTY. ELSEWHERE...LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF PRECIP.

FOR MOST OF TONIGHT...WE EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO
SPREAD/EXPAND ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. IN ADDITION...SOME LIGHT
RAIN AND DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARD MIDNIGHT...AND POSSIBLY SPREADING AS
FAR N AND W AS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND
CAPITAL REGION BY DAYBREAK.

OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID 50S IN MOST
AREAS...WITH SOME UPPER 50S POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY.

IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE UPPER LOW (WHICH IS SPARKING THE
CONVECTION FARTHER WEST) WILL MOVE TO A POSITION OVER SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS UPPER LOW WILL WORK
WITH THE MOISTURE TO SPAWN AREAS OF LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES INTO NW
CONNECTICUT WHERE LIKELY POPS HAVE BEEN INTRODUCED ON WED...WITH
CHC POPS ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY EXTENDING INTO THE CATSKILLS
AND CAPITAL REGION. POPS DECREASE AS YOU HEAD FURTHER
NORTHWEST...BECOMING NEGLIGIBLE AS YOU REACH THE `DACKS.

LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECASTS WITH THE MODELS NOT
HANDLING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE (AND CLOUDS) VERY WELL. IN
GENERAL...WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE COOLEST TEMPERATURES /LOW-MID
60S/ IN SOUTH/EAST AREAS WITH SOME UPPER 60S TO PERHAPS 70 MORE
NORTH/WEST WHERE IT WILL BE DRIER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 405 PM EDT...CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
AT LEAST WITH THE SHOWERS COMING TO AN END AS THE UPPER LOW SLIDES
TO THE EAST. HOWEVER, LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST AS THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS LIGHT EASTERLY. AGAIN, TOOK A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE WITH REGARD TO THE CLOUDS IMPACTING TEMPERATURES REMAIN.
IN GENERAL, THURSDAY WILL FEATURE HIGHS IN THE 60S. OVERNIGHT LOWS
BOTH NIGHTS WON`T BE TOO FAR FROM NORMAL -- 40S IN THE COOLER
AREAS TO 50S FOR EVERYONE ELSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 405 PM EDT...MAIN WEATHER EVENT IS DURING THIS PERIOD. A
POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SWING THROUGH MAINLY ON SATURDAY,
AND IN IT`S WAKE MORE TYPICAL FALL WEATHER WILL BE SEEN. 12Z
GUIDANCE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT, SO FOR THE MOST PART I TOOK A
BLEND OF GFS AND EURO. DAILY DETAILS BELOW...

FRIDAY: HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN, SO IT WILL BE DRY. RIDGING ALOFT
MEANS IT SHOULD ALSO BE SUNNY AS IT LOOKS LIKE THE MOIST EASTERLY
FLOW SHOULD HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL,
TOUCHING 70F IN THE WARMER VALLEYS

SATURDAY: PRECIPITATION STARTS COMING IN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/FIRST
THING SATURDAY. LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL JET WITH
850MB WINDS 40-50KTS. COULD BE SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND SOME VALLEYS. OTHERWISE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE SYSTEM
WILL BE TAPPING SOME DECENT MOISTURE, SO A GOOD 8-12 HOURS OF
RAIN, WITH SOME EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS IS EXPECTED. THE CLOUDS
AND RAIN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S. INITIAL THINKING IS
THAT RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH ARE POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY: POST FRONTAL CONDITIONS WITH PERHAPS SOME GUSTY
WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS. SHOULD BE FAIRLY CLOUDY, THANKS TO LAKE
EFFECT MOISTURE STREAMING OFF LAKE ONTARIO AND ERIE, THOUGH THE
FARTHER SOUTHEAST YOU GO, THE MORE DOWNSLOPING AND BETTER CHANCE
FOR SOME SUNSHINE. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALLING TOWARD 0C BY
LATE IN THE DAY, SO FAIRLY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE
HAPPENING. HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S TO A FEW LOWER 60S IN THE FARTHER
SOUTH/EAST AREAS THANKS TO THE WARMING DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS. SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY, WITH THE COLDER AREAS DROPPING INTO THE 30S,
BUT LOOKS LIKE WINDS WILL STAY UP ENOUGH TO MITIGATE FROST
POTENTIAL.

MONDAY/TUESDAY: ANOTHER SYSTEM COMES INTO THE AREA. 12Z GUIDANCE
HAS MORE DIFFERENCES, SO KEPT WITH A MORE BROADBRUSH FORECAST FOR
BOTH DAYS SHOWING CHANCE LEVEL POPS AND A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS.
AGAIN A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES AS WELL. SEEMED LIKE
THE BEST WAY TO GO.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT...WITH SOME
POCKETS OF IFR CIGS POSSIBLE...ESP AT KPSF. SOME SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN
OR DRIZZLE MAY ALSO REDUCE VSBYS INTO THE MVFR/IFR RANGE AT KPSF
AND POSSIBLY KPOU TOWARD 12Z/WED.

ON WED...EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CIGS TO PREDOMINATE. VSBYS SHOULD
RANGE FROM VFR TO OCCASIONAL MVFR AT KPSF/KPOU AND POSSIBLY
KALB IN AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE...WHILE REMAINING GENERALLY
VFR AT KGFL WHERE LITTLE IF ANY RAIN OR DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE E TO NE AT LESS THAN 5 KT THROUGH
DAYBREAK...TRENDING INTO THE NE TO N ON WED AT GENERALLY 5-10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A PASSING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...BEFORE A COLD
FRONT BRINGS MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR
THE WEEKEND.

RH VALUES LOOK TO RECOVER TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SOME
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE AREA. EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 5 MPH.

RH VALUES WILL ONLY DROP TO 60 TO 70 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE...MAINLY FOR
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE REGION. NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS
WILL BE AROUND 5-15 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC RELATED ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK.

ANY SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL NOT PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED SATURDAY. THOUGH
RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE HEAVIER -- PERHAPS 3/4" OR SO --- NO
SIGNIFICANT RESPONSES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS POINT ON AREA RIVERS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/NASH
NEAR TERM...KL/NASH
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...KL/NASH
FIRE WEATHER...KL/NASH
HYDROLOGY...KL/NASH







000
FXUS61 KALY 010003
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
803 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED INTO
WEDNESDAY. DRY AND MILD WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A
POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY, BRINGING WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS. TYPICAL FALL
WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM EDT...SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SCHOHARIE COUNTY. ELSEWHERE...LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF PRECIP.

FOR MOST OF TONIGHT...WE EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO
SPREAD/EXPAND ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. IN ADDITION...SOME LIGHT
RAIN AND DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARD MIDNIGHT...AND POSSIBLY SPREADING AS
FAR N AND W AS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND
CAPITAL REGION BY DAYBREAK.

OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID 50S IN MOST
AREAS...WITH SOME UPPER 50S POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY.

IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE UPPER LOW (WHICH IS SPARKING THE
CONVECTION FARTHER WEST) WILL MOVE TO A POSITION OVER SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS UPPER LOW WILL WORK
WITH THE MOISTURE TO SPAWN AREAS OF LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES INTO NW
CONNECTICUT WHERE LIKELY POPS HAVE BEEN INTRODUCED ON WED...WITH
CHC POPS ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY EXTENDING INTO THE CATSKILLS
AND CAPITAL REGION. POPS DECREASE AS YOU HEAD FURTHER
NORTHWEST...BECOMING NEGLIGIBLE AS YOU REACH THE `DACKS.

LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECASTS WITH THE MODELS NOT
HANDLING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE (AND CLOUDS) VERY WELL. IN
GENERAL...WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE COOLEST TEMPERATURES /LOW-MID
60S/ IN SOUTH/EAST AREAS WITH SOME UPPER 60S TO PERHAPS 70 MORE
NORTH/WEST WHERE IT WILL BE DRIER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 405 PM EDT...CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
AT LEAST WITH THE SHOWERS COMING TO AN END AS THE UPPER LOW SLIDES
TO THE EAST. HOWEVER, LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST AS THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS LIGHT EASTERLY. AGAIN, TOOK A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE WITH REGARD TO THE CLOUDS IMPACTING TEMPERATURES REMAIN.
IN GENERAL, THURSDAY WILL FEATURE HIGHS IN THE 60S. OVERNIGHT LOWS
BOTH NIGHTS WON`T BE TOO FAR FROM NORMAL -- 40S IN THE COOLER
AREAS TO 50S FOR EVERYONE ELSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 405 PM EDT...MAIN WEATHER EVENT IS DURING THIS PERIOD. A
POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SWING THROUGH MAINLY ON SATURDAY,
AND IN IT`S WAKE MORE TYPICAL FALL WEATHER WILL BE SEEN. 12Z
GUIDANCE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT, SO FOR THE MOST PART I TOOK A
BLEND OF GFS AND EURO. DAILY DETAILS BELOW...

FRIDAY: HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN, SO IT WILL BE DRY. RIDGING ALOFT
MEANS IT SHOULD ALSO BE SUNNY AS IT LOOKS LIKE THE MOIST EASTERLY
FLOW SHOULD HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL,
TOUCHING 70F IN THE WARMER VALLEYS

SATURDAY: PRECIPITATION STARTS COMING IN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/FIRST
THING SATURDAY. LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL JET WITH
850MB WINDS 40-50KTS. COULD BE SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND SOME VALLEYS. OTHERWISE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE SYSTEM
WILL BE TAPPING SOME DECENT MOISTURE, SO A GOOD 8-12 HOURS OF
RAIN, WITH SOME EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS IS EXPECTED. THE CLOUDS
AND RAIN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S. INITIAL THINKING IS
THAT RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH ARE POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY: POST FRONTAL CONDITIONS WITH PERHAPS SOME GUSTY
WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS. SHOULD BE FAIRLY CLOUDY, THANKS TO LAKE
EFFECT MOISTURE STREAMING OFF LAKE ONTARIO AND ERIE, THOUGH THE
FARTHER SOUTHEAST YOU GO, THE MORE DOWNSLOPING AND BETTER CHANCE
FOR SOME SUNSHINE. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALLING TOWARD 0C BY
LATE IN THE DAY, SO FAIRLY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE
HAPPENING. HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S TO A FEW LOWER 60S IN THE FARTHER
SOUTH/EAST AREAS THANKS TO THE WARMING DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS. SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY, WITH THE COLDER AREAS DROPPING INTO THE 30S,
BUT LOOKS LIKE WINDS WILL STAY UP ENOUGH TO MITIGATE FROST
POTENTIAL.

MONDAY/TUESDAY: ANOTHER SYSTEM COMES INTO THE AREA. 12Z GUIDANCE
HAS MORE DIFFERENCES, SO KEPT WITH A MORE BROADBRUSH FORECAST FOR
BOTH DAYS SHOWING CHANCE LEVEL POPS AND A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS.
AGAIN A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES AS WELL. SEEMED LIKE
THE BEST WAY TO GO.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT...WITH SOME
POCKETS OF IFR CIGS POSSIBLE...ESP AT KPSF. SOME SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN
OR DRIZZLE MAY ALSO REDUCE VSBYS INTO THE MVFR/IFR RANGE AT KPSF
AND POSSIBLY KPOU TOWARD 12Z/WED.

ON WED...EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CIGS TO PREDOMINATE. VSBYS SHOULD
RANGE FROM VFR TO OCCASIONAL MVFR AT KPSF/KPOU AND POSSIBLY
KALB IN AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE...WHILE REMAINING GENERALLY
VFR AT KGFL WHERE LITTLE IF ANY RAIN OR DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE E TO NE AT LESS THAN 5 KT THROUGH
DAYBREAK...TRENDING INTO THE NE TO N ON WED AT GENERALLY 5-10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A PASSING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...BEFORE A COLD
FRONT BRINGS MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR
THE WEEKEND.

RH VALUES LOOK TO RECOVER TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SOME
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE AREA. EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 5 MPH.

RH VALUES WILL ONLY DROP TO 60 TO 70 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE...MAINLY FOR
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE REGION. NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS
WILL BE AROUND 5-15 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC RELATED ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK.

ANY SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL NOT PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED SATURDAY. THOUGH
RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE HEAVIER -- PERHAPS 3/4" OR SO --- NO
SIGNIFICANT RESPONSES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS POINT ON AREA RIVERS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/NASH
NEAR TERM...KL/NASH
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...KL/NASH
FIRE WEATHER...KL/NASH
HYDROLOGY...KL/NASH







000
FXUS61 KALY 010003
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
803 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED INTO
WEDNESDAY. DRY AND MILD WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A
POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY, BRINGING WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS. TYPICAL FALL
WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM EDT...SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SCHOHARIE COUNTY. ELSEWHERE...LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF PRECIP.

FOR MOST OF TONIGHT...WE EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO
SPREAD/EXPAND ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. IN ADDITION...SOME LIGHT
RAIN AND DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARD MIDNIGHT...AND POSSIBLY SPREADING AS
FAR N AND W AS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND
CAPITAL REGION BY DAYBREAK.

OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID 50S IN MOST
AREAS...WITH SOME UPPER 50S POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY.

IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE UPPER LOW (WHICH IS SPARKING THE
CONVECTION FARTHER WEST) WILL MOVE TO A POSITION OVER SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS UPPER LOW WILL WORK
WITH THE MOISTURE TO SPAWN AREAS OF LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES INTO NW
CONNECTICUT WHERE LIKELY POPS HAVE BEEN INTRODUCED ON WED...WITH
CHC POPS ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY EXTENDING INTO THE CATSKILLS
AND CAPITAL REGION. POPS DECREASE AS YOU HEAD FURTHER
NORTHWEST...BECOMING NEGLIGIBLE AS YOU REACH THE `DACKS.

LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECASTS WITH THE MODELS NOT
HANDLING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE (AND CLOUDS) VERY WELL. IN
GENERAL...WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE COOLEST TEMPERATURES /LOW-MID
60S/ IN SOUTH/EAST AREAS WITH SOME UPPER 60S TO PERHAPS 70 MORE
NORTH/WEST WHERE IT WILL BE DRIER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 405 PM EDT...CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
AT LEAST WITH THE SHOWERS COMING TO AN END AS THE UPPER LOW SLIDES
TO THE EAST. HOWEVER, LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST AS THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS LIGHT EASTERLY. AGAIN, TOOK A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE WITH REGARD TO THE CLOUDS IMPACTING TEMPERATURES REMAIN.
IN GENERAL, THURSDAY WILL FEATURE HIGHS IN THE 60S. OVERNIGHT LOWS
BOTH NIGHTS WON`T BE TOO FAR FROM NORMAL -- 40S IN THE COOLER
AREAS TO 50S FOR EVERYONE ELSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 405 PM EDT...MAIN WEATHER EVENT IS DURING THIS PERIOD. A
POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SWING THROUGH MAINLY ON SATURDAY,
AND IN IT`S WAKE MORE TYPICAL FALL WEATHER WILL BE SEEN. 12Z
GUIDANCE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT, SO FOR THE MOST PART I TOOK A
BLEND OF GFS AND EURO. DAILY DETAILS BELOW...

FRIDAY: HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN, SO IT WILL BE DRY. RIDGING ALOFT
MEANS IT SHOULD ALSO BE SUNNY AS IT LOOKS LIKE THE MOIST EASTERLY
FLOW SHOULD HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL,
TOUCHING 70F IN THE WARMER VALLEYS

SATURDAY: PRECIPITATION STARTS COMING IN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/FIRST
THING SATURDAY. LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL JET WITH
850MB WINDS 40-50KTS. COULD BE SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND SOME VALLEYS. OTHERWISE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE SYSTEM
WILL BE TAPPING SOME DECENT MOISTURE, SO A GOOD 8-12 HOURS OF
RAIN, WITH SOME EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS IS EXPECTED. THE CLOUDS
AND RAIN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S. INITIAL THINKING IS
THAT RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH ARE POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY: POST FRONTAL CONDITIONS WITH PERHAPS SOME GUSTY
WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS. SHOULD BE FAIRLY CLOUDY, THANKS TO LAKE
EFFECT MOISTURE STREAMING OFF LAKE ONTARIO AND ERIE, THOUGH THE
FARTHER SOUTHEAST YOU GO, THE MORE DOWNSLOPING AND BETTER CHANCE
FOR SOME SUNSHINE. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALLING TOWARD 0C BY
LATE IN THE DAY, SO FAIRLY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE
HAPPENING. HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S TO A FEW LOWER 60S IN THE FARTHER
SOUTH/EAST AREAS THANKS TO THE WARMING DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS. SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY, WITH THE COLDER AREAS DROPPING INTO THE 30S,
BUT LOOKS LIKE WINDS WILL STAY UP ENOUGH TO MITIGATE FROST
POTENTIAL.

MONDAY/TUESDAY: ANOTHER SYSTEM COMES INTO THE AREA. 12Z GUIDANCE
HAS MORE DIFFERENCES, SO KEPT WITH A MORE BROADBRUSH FORECAST FOR
BOTH DAYS SHOWING CHANCE LEVEL POPS AND A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS.
AGAIN A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES AS WELL. SEEMED LIKE
THE BEST WAY TO GO.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT...WITH SOME
POCKETS OF IFR CIGS POSSIBLE...ESP AT KPSF. SOME SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN
OR DRIZZLE MAY ALSO REDUCE VSBYS INTO THE MVFR/IFR RANGE AT KPSF
AND POSSIBLY KPOU TOWARD 12Z/WED.

ON WED...EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CIGS TO PREDOMINATE. VSBYS SHOULD
RANGE FROM VFR TO OCCASIONAL MVFR AT KPSF/KPOU AND POSSIBLY
KALB IN AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE...WHILE REMAINING GENERALLY
VFR AT KGFL WHERE LITTLE IF ANY RAIN OR DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE E TO NE AT LESS THAN 5 KT THROUGH
DAYBREAK...TRENDING INTO THE NE TO N ON WED AT GENERALLY 5-10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A PASSING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...BEFORE A COLD
FRONT BRINGS MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR
THE WEEKEND.

RH VALUES LOOK TO RECOVER TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SOME
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE AREA. EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 5 MPH.

RH VALUES WILL ONLY DROP TO 60 TO 70 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE...MAINLY FOR
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE REGION. NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS
WILL BE AROUND 5-15 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC RELATED ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK.

ANY SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL NOT PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED SATURDAY. THOUGH
RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE HEAVIER -- PERHAPS 3/4" OR SO --- NO
SIGNIFICANT RESPONSES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS POINT ON AREA RIVERS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/NASH
NEAR TERM...KL/NASH
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...KL/NASH
FIRE WEATHER...KL/NASH
HYDROLOGY...KL/NASH







000
FXUS61 KALY 010003
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
803 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED INTO
WEDNESDAY. DRY AND MILD WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A
POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY, BRINGING WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS. TYPICAL FALL
WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM EDT...SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SCHOHARIE COUNTY. ELSEWHERE...LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF PRECIP.

FOR MOST OF TONIGHT...WE EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO
SPREAD/EXPAND ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. IN ADDITION...SOME LIGHT
RAIN AND DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARD MIDNIGHT...AND POSSIBLY SPREADING AS
FAR N AND W AS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND
CAPITAL REGION BY DAYBREAK.

OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID 50S IN MOST
AREAS...WITH SOME UPPER 50S POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY.

IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE UPPER LOW (WHICH IS SPARKING THE
CONVECTION FARTHER WEST) WILL MOVE TO A POSITION OVER SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS UPPER LOW WILL WORK
WITH THE MOISTURE TO SPAWN AREAS OF LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES INTO NW
CONNECTICUT WHERE LIKELY POPS HAVE BEEN INTRODUCED ON WED...WITH
CHC POPS ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY EXTENDING INTO THE CATSKILLS
AND CAPITAL REGION. POPS DECREASE AS YOU HEAD FURTHER
NORTHWEST...BECOMING NEGLIGIBLE AS YOU REACH THE `DACKS.

LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECASTS WITH THE MODELS NOT
HANDLING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE (AND CLOUDS) VERY WELL. IN
GENERAL...WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE COOLEST TEMPERATURES /LOW-MID
60S/ IN SOUTH/EAST AREAS WITH SOME UPPER 60S TO PERHAPS 70 MORE
NORTH/WEST WHERE IT WILL BE DRIER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 405 PM EDT...CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
AT LEAST WITH THE SHOWERS COMING TO AN END AS THE UPPER LOW SLIDES
TO THE EAST. HOWEVER, LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST AS THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS LIGHT EASTERLY. AGAIN, TOOK A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE WITH REGARD TO THE CLOUDS IMPACTING TEMPERATURES REMAIN.
IN GENERAL, THURSDAY WILL FEATURE HIGHS IN THE 60S. OVERNIGHT LOWS
BOTH NIGHTS WON`T BE TOO FAR FROM NORMAL -- 40S IN THE COOLER
AREAS TO 50S FOR EVERYONE ELSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 405 PM EDT...MAIN WEATHER EVENT IS DURING THIS PERIOD. A
POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SWING THROUGH MAINLY ON SATURDAY,
AND IN IT`S WAKE MORE TYPICAL FALL WEATHER WILL BE SEEN. 12Z
GUIDANCE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT, SO FOR THE MOST PART I TOOK A
BLEND OF GFS AND EURO. DAILY DETAILS BELOW...

FRIDAY: HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN, SO IT WILL BE DRY. RIDGING ALOFT
MEANS IT SHOULD ALSO BE SUNNY AS IT LOOKS LIKE THE MOIST EASTERLY
FLOW SHOULD HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL,
TOUCHING 70F IN THE WARMER VALLEYS

SATURDAY: PRECIPITATION STARTS COMING IN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/FIRST
THING SATURDAY. LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL JET WITH
850MB WINDS 40-50KTS. COULD BE SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND SOME VALLEYS. OTHERWISE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE SYSTEM
WILL BE TAPPING SOME DECENT MOISTURE, SO A GOOD 8-12 HOURS OF
RAIN, WITH SOME EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS IS EXPECTED. THE CLOUDS
AND RAIN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S. INITIAL THINKING IS
THAT RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH ARE POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY: POST FRONTAL CONDITIONS WITH PERHAPS SOME GUSTY
WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS. SHOULD BE FAIRLY CLOUDY, THANKS TO LAKE
EFFECT MOISTURE STREAMING OFF LAKE ONTARIO AND ERIE, THOUGH THE
FARTHER SOUTHEAST YOU GO, THE MORE DOWNSLOPING AND BETTER CHANCE
FOR SOME SUNSHINE. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALLING TOWARD 0C BY
LATE IN THE DAY, SO FAIRLY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE
HAPPENING. HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S TO A FEW LOWER 60S IN THE FARTHER
SOUTH/EAST AREAS THANKS TO THE WARMING DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS. SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY, WITH THE COLDER AREAS DROPPING INTO THE 30S,
BUT LOOKS LIKE WINDS WILL STAY UP ENOUGH TO MITIGATE FROST
POTENTIAL.

MONDAY/TUESDAY: ANOTHER SYSTEM COMES INTO THE AREA. 12Z GUIDANCE
HAS MORE DIFFERENCES, SO KEPT WITH A MORE BROADBRUSH FORECAST FOR
BOTH DAYS SHOWING CHANCE LEVEL POPS AND A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS.
AGAIN A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES AS WELL. SEEMED LIKE
THE BEST WAY TO GO.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT...WITH SOME
POCKETS OF IFR CIGS POSSIBLE...ESP AT KPSF. SOME SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN
OR DRIZZLE MAY ALSO REDUCE VSBYS INTO THE MVFR/IFR RANGE AT KPSF
AND POSSIBLY KPOU TOWARD 12Z/WED.

ON WED...EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CIGS TO PREDOMINATE. VSBYS SHOULD
RANGE FROM VFR TO OCCASIONAL MVFR AT KPSF/KPOU AND POSSIBLY
KALB IN AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE...WHILE REMAINING GENERALLY
VFR AT KGFL WHERE LITTLE IF ANY RAIN OR DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE E TO NE AT LESS THAN 5 KT THROUGH
DAYBREAK...TRENDING INTO THE NE TO N ON WED AT GENERALLY 5-10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A PASSING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...BEFORE A COLD
FRONT BRINGS MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR
THE WEEKEND.

RH VALUES LOOK TO RECOVER TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SOME
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE AREA. EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 5 MPH.

RH VALUES WILL ONLY DROP TO 60 TO 70 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE...MAINLY FOR
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE REGION. NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS
WILL BE AROUND 5-15 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC RELATED ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK.

ANY SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL NOT PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED SATURDAY. THOUGH
RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE HEAVIER -- PERHAPS 3/4" OR SO --- NO
SIGNIFICANT RESPONSES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS POINT ON AREA RIVERS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/NASH
NEAR TERM...KL/NASH
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...KL/NASH
FIRE WEATHER...KL/NASH
HYDROLOGY...KL/NASH







000
FXUS61 KBOX 302309
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
709 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL DAMP CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE INTO THURSDAY...WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED TOMORROW. DRY WEATHER RETURNS LATER
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE
REGION. A COLD FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY
BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
7 PM UPDATE...
AREA OF LIGHT RAIN IS DIMINISHING ACROSS SNE AS WV LOOP SHOWS
DEEPER MOISTURE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...GIVEN ALL THE
N-NE FLOW OFF THE COOL GULF OF MAINE...WILL LIKELY SEE AREAS OF
DRIZZLE AND PATCHY FOG DEVELOP THROUGH THIS EVENING.

MID LEVEL LOW SPINNING NEAR LAKE ERIE WITH ASSOCD COLD POOL
HELPING TO TRIGGER CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL PA AND W NY.
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TONIGHT SO THUNDER NOT
ANTICIPATED FOR SNE...BUT WE EXPECT RAIN TO EXPAND ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT AS THE MID LEVEL LOW APPROACHES SNE FROM THE
WEST AND MID LEVEL OMEGA INCREASES ALONG WITH DEEPENING MOISTURE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS HOWEVER...EXPECT INVERTED TROF
BETWEEN THE OFFSHORE LOW PRES AND THE E MOVING UPPER CUTOFF TO
BEGIN TO ENHANCE. NOTE INCREASE IN BAROCLINICITY AND DEFORMATION
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING...WHICH COMBINED WITH
DEEPENING MOISTURE FROM THE SFC TO H4 OR SO...SUSPECT INCREASE IN
MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...SUCH THAT IT/S LIKELY RAINING AT OVER MUCH OF THE
BOX CWA BY 12Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...AS UPPER LVL CUTOFF SHIFTS ALMOST DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD AND LOW PRES CONTINUES WELL TO THE SE OF THE
BENCHMARK...A MODERATE INVERTED TROF IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS PROVIDES
BETTER F-GEN AND EVEN A DEFORMATION AXIS FOR DEEPER LIFT ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS IS ALSO COMBINED WITH MODEST ELY LLJ WITH WIND
SPEEDS AT H85 AROUND 25-30 KT /2+ STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL/
AND PWATS TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES WHICH IS 1-2 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL FOR EARLY OCTOBER. THEREFORE...EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL ACROSS MOST OF SRN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE DAY...ITS NOT
UNTIL THE SFC OCEAN SYSTEM PULLS E LATE IN THE DAY THAT THE
MOISTURE BEGINS TO DECREASE. MANY AREAS MAY RECEIVE SOME OF THE
STEADY SOAKING RAINFALL THEY HAVE NEEDED FOR SOME TIME NOW WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGING 0.25-0.75 INCHES.
POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAIN ARE ALSO POSSIBLE GIVEN THE BANDING
POTENTIAL WHICH MAY BE ENHANCED THANKS TO K-VALUES IN THE LOW
30S...BUT IT/S DIFFICULT TO SAY EXACTLY WHERE THIS WILL SET UP. SO
WILL AT LEAST HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALIZED AREAS OF
1.0+ INCHES. FOR NOW...THE BEST CHANCE LOOKS LIKE SE MA...WHERE
THE INVERTED TROF HOLDS IN THE LONGEST...BUT IT/S NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION IT IS OBSERVED INLAND...ESPECIALLY WHERE AN E COMPONENT
TO THE FLOW ENHANCES UPSLOPE.

OTHER THAN THE RAINFALL...COOL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED AS MANY
LOCATIONS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES.

TOMORROW NIGHT...
RAINFALL WILL SLOWLY COME TO AN END FROM W TO E THROUGH THE
EVENING...POSSIBLY LINGERING ACROSS RI AND SE MA INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...WITH E COMPONENT TO THE FLOW...AND LOW
LVL MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE...EXPECT ANOTHER CHANCE FOR FOG
AND DRIZZLE AT TIMES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MIN TEMPS REMAIN
LIKELY IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS FRIDAY
* RAIN LIKELY SATURDAY
* COOLER AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
* MORE SHOWERS POSSIBLE TUESDAY

OVERVIEW...
MEDIUM RANGE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. MID
LEVEL LOW EXITS THE REGION TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...THEN MAIN
FEATURE WILL BE AN ANOMALOUS MID LEVEL TROF/LOW DIGGING INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND WESTERN GT LAKES BY SAT. A PIECE OF ENERGY
ROTATING AROUND THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL BRING A FRONTAL SYSTEM INTO
NEW ENG LATE SAT/SAT NIGHT WHICH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A PERIOD OF
RAIN WHICH MAY BE LOCALLY HEAVY...BUT EXACT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN.
AFTER SHORTWAVE EXITS...BROAD TROF WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA AND GT LAKES SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NEXT SHORTWAVE
AND FRONT APPROACHING NEXT TUESDAY. THERE ARE ALSO TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH THIS FRONT AS THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE
ECMWF WHICH WILL AFFECT TIMING OF POTENTIAL SHOWERS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DAILIES...

THURSDAY...
MID LEVEL LOW WILL GRADUALLY PULL AWAY FROM SE NEW ENG AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS INTO THE REGION.  CROSS SECTIONS SUGGEST MOCLDY SKIES DURING
THE MORNING AND CANT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST IN
PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW...THEN BECOMING PTSUNNY FROM WEST TO EAST
IN THE AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN. WITH NE FLOW... TEMPS WILL
HOLD IN THE 60S.

FRIDAY...
SNE WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH HIGH PRES OVERHEAD LEADING TO
MOSUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.  WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOUDS BACKING IN
FROM THE OCEAN ASSOCIATED WITH OFFSHORE STORM WHICH MAY BRING MORE
CLOUDS TO THE OUTER CAPE.  GFS AND NAM ARE SUGGESTING THIS INCREASED
CLOUD COVER WHILE ECMWF KEEPS CLOUDS TO THE EAST.  WITH CONTINUED
ONSHORE FLOW TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S...COOLEST E MA COAST.

SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF COLD FRONT INTO SNE LATE
SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. DECENT LOW LEVEL JET AND ANOMALOUS PWAT PLUME
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN TO SNE WHICH MAY BE
LOCALLY HEAVY...BUT THIS SYSTEM IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE. TIMING IS
STILL UNCERTAIN BUT IT APPEARS BULK OF RAIN WILL FALL DURING
SAT...WHICH MAY LINGER INTO SAT EVENING ACROSS E NEW ENG.

SUNDAY...
FRONT IS OFFSHORE SUNDAY WITH DRY WESTERLY FLOW WHICH WILL LEAD TO
SUNSHINE AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS. 850 MB TEMPS BELOW NORMAL AND WILL
LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS SUNDAY.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...
NEXT FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST BUT THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THE SHORTWAVE AND HOW PROGRESSIVE THE FRONT
WILL BE. EVEN FASTER GFS IS MAINLY DRY FOR MON SO WE ARE GOING WITH
A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW.  THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS WITH TUE AS
PROGRESSIVE GFS MOVES THE SHOWERS OFFSHORE WHILE MORE AMPLIFIED
ECMWF IS WET.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING.

THROUGH TONIGHT...
MAINLY IFR EAST OF AN IJD-ORH-MHT LINE...WITH MVFR WEST. THIS IS
MAINLY DUE TO CIGS THROUGH EVENING...BUT VSBYS MAY BEGIN TO DIP
AS WELL TONIGHT IN A MIX OF DRIZZLE/FOG/LIGHT RAIN. POSSIBILITY
OF PERIODIC IFR VSBYS. CIGS REMAIN LOW...BUT VSBYS LIFT DURING
THE MORNING HOURS AS RAIN BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD AND ALLOWS VSBYS
TO LIFT TO MAINLY MVFR/VFR. WINDS PICK UP NEAR SHORE IN THE
EAST...WITH A FEW GUSTS APPROACHING 20 KT AT COASTAL TERMINALS.

TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT....
MUCH OF THE SAME...MAINLY IFR/MVFR CIGS WITH SOME MVFR CONDITIONS
IN RAIN. EXPECT A VERY SLOW IMPROVEMENT FROM W TO E LATE IN THE
DAY AND OVERNIGHT...BUT THIS WILL BE MAINLY TOWARD RAIN
ENDING...WITH CATEGORIES ONLY REALLY IMPROVING DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS ON THU.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.
ALSO LOW CONFIDENCE OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE IMPROVEMENT IN THE MORNING.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. AREAS OF IFR IN THE MORNING SHOULD
IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON AS CIGS LIFT AND CLOUDS BREAK UP.

FRI...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR AS
SHOWERS MOVE INTO THE REGION. LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING. GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SHIFTING TO WEST SAT
NIGHT.

SUN...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT.

N-NE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
INTO TOMORROW...WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KT AT TIMES POSSIBLE
PARTICULARLY BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE OCEAN WATERS AS WELL AS RI/BI
SOUND FOR THESE WINDS...AND MAY NEED TO BE ADDED FOR THE WATERS
SURROUNDING CAPE COD FOR LATE IN THE DAY TOMORROW.

OTHERWISE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY DUE TO
INCREASING SWELL ALONE...WHICH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO REACH 7-8FT
BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON ON THE OCEAN WATERS. IT/S LIKELY THAT THESE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL NEED TO LINGER INTO THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THU INTO FRI...EXPECT NE WIND GUSTS TO 25-30 KT THU MORNING OVER SE
WATERS WHICH WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THU AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
CONTINUED NE WINDS FRI BUT SPEEDS LESS THAN SCA.  HAZARDOUS SEA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THU INTO FRI OVER OUTER WATERS.

SAT...SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH GUSTS
INCREASING TO 25-30 KT. WINDS SHIFTING TO WEST DURING SAT NIGHT.
HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER OUTER WATERS.  VSBYS MAY BE
REDUCED IN SHOWERS AND FOG.

SUN...WEST WINDS MAY GUST TO 25-30 KT IN POST FRONTAL AIRMASS.
HAZARDOUS SEAS CONTINUE OVER OUTER WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DOODY
NEAR TERM...KJC/DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/DOODY
MARINE...KJC/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 302309
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
709 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL DAMP CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE INTO THURSDAY...WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED TOMORROW. DRY WEATHER RETURNS LATER
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE
REGION. A COLD FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY
BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
7 PM UPDATE...
AREA OF LIGHT RAIN IS DIMINISHING ACROSS SNE AS WV LOOP SHOWS
DEEPER MOISTURE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...GIVEN ALL THE
N-NE FLOW OFF THE COOL GULF OF MAINE...WILL LIKELY SEE AREAS OF
DRIZZLE AND PATCHY FOG DEVELOP THROUGH THIS EVENING.

MID LEVEL LOW SPINNING NEAR LAKE ERIE WITH ASSOCD COLD POOL
HELPING TO TRIGGER CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL PA AND W NY.
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TONIGHT SO THUNDER NOT
ANTICIPATED FOR SNE...BUT WE EXPECT RAIN TO EXPAND ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT AS THE MID LEVEL LOW APPROACHES SNE FROM THE
WEST AND MID LEVEL OMEGA INCREASES ALONG WITH DEEPENING MOISTURE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS HOWEVER...EXPECT INVERTED TROF
BETWEEN THE OFFSHORE LOW PRES AND THE E MOVING UPPER CUTOFF TO
BEGIN TO ENHANCE. NOTE INCREASE IN BAROCLINICITY AND DEFORMATION
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING...WHICH COMBINED WITH
DEEPENING MOISTURE FROM THE SFC TO H4 OR SO...SUSPECT INCREASE IN
MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...SUCH THAT IT/S LIKELY RAINING AT OVER MUCH OF THE
BOX CWA BY 12Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...AS UPPER LVL CUTOFF SHIFTS ALMOST DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD AND LOW PRES CONTINUES WELL TO THE SE OF THE
BENCHMARK...A MODERATE INVERTED TROF IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS PROVIDES
BETTER F-GEN AND EVEN A DEFORMATION AXIS FOR DEEPER LIFT ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS IS ALSO COMBINED WITH MODEST ELY LLJ WITH WIND
SPEEDS AT H85 AROUND 25-30 KT /2+ STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL/
AND PWATS TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES WHICH IS 1-2 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL FOR EARLY OCTOBER. THEREFORE...EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL ACROSS MOST OF SRN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE DAY...ITS NOT
UNTIL THE SFC OCEAN SYSTEM PULLS E LATE IN THE DAY THAT THE
MOISTURE BEGINS TO DECREASE. MANY AREAS MAY RECEIVE SOME OF THE
STEADY SOAKING RAINFALL THEY HAVE NEEDED FOR SOME TIME NOW WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGING 0.25-0.75 INCHES.
POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAIN ARE ALSO POSSIBLE GIVEN THE BANDING
POTENTIAL WHICH MAY BE ENHANCED THANKS TO K-VALUES IN THE LOW
30S...BUT IT/S DIFFICULT TO SAY EXACTLY WHERE THIS WILL SET UP. SO
WILL AT LEAST HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALIZED AREAS OF
1.0+ INCHES. FOR NOW...THE BEST CHANCE LOOKS LIKE SE MA...WHERE
THE INVERTED TROF HOLDS IN THE LONGEST...BUT IT/S NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION IT IS OBSERVED INLAND...ESPECIALLY WHERE AN E COMPONENT
TO THE FLOW ENHANCES UPSLOPE.

OTHER THAN THE RAINFALL...COOL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED AS MANY
LOCATIONS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES.

TOMORROW NIGHT...
RAINFALL WILL SLOWLY COME TO AN END FROM W TO E THROUGH THE
EVENING...POSSIBLY LINGERING ACROSS RI AND SE MA INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...WITH E COMPONENT TO THE FLOW...AND LOW
LVL MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE...EXPECT ANOTHER CHANCE FOR FOG
AND DRIZZLE AT TIMES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MIN TEMPS REMAIN
LIKELY IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS FRIDAY
* RAIN LIKELY SATURDAY
* COOLER AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
* MORE SHOWERS POSSIBLE TUESDAY

OVERVIEW...
MEDIUM RANGE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. MID
LEVEL LOW EXITS THE REGION TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...THEN MAIN
FEATURE WILL BE AN ANOMALOUS MID LEVEL TROF/LOW DIGGING INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND WESTERN GT LAKES BY SAT. A PIECE OF ENERGY
ROTATING AROUND THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL BRING A FRONTAL SYSTEM INTO
NEW ENG LATE SAT/SAT NIGHT WHICH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A PERIOD OF
RAIN WHICH MAY BE LOCALLY HEAVY...BUT EXACT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN.
AFTER SHORTWAVE EXITS...BROAD TROF WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA AND GT LAKES SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NEXT SHORTWAVE
AND FRONT APPROACHING NEXT TUESDAY. THERE ARE ALSO TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH THIS FRONT AS THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE
ECMWF WHICH WILL AFFECT TIMING OF POTENTIAL SHOWERS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DAILIES...

THURSDAY...
MID LEVEL LOW WILL GRADUALLY PULL AWAY FROM SE NEW ENG AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS INTO THE REGION.  CROSS SECTIONS SUGGEST MOCLDY SKIES DURING
THE MORNING AND CANT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST IN
PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW...THEN BECOMING PTSUNNY FROM WEST TO EAST
IN THE AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN. WITH NE FLOW... TEMPS WILL
HOLD IN THE 60S.

FRIDAY...
SNE WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH HIGH PRES OVERHEAD LEADING TO
MOSUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.  WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOUDS BACKING IN
FROM THE OCEAN ASSOCIATED WITH OFFSHORE STORM WHICH MAY BRING MORE
CLOUDS TO THE OUTER CAPE.  GFS AND NAM ARE SUGGESTING THIS INCREASED
CLOUD COVER WHILE ECMWF KEEPS CLOUDS TO THE EAST.  WITH CONTINUED
ONSHORE FLOW TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S...COOLEST E MA COAST.

SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF COLD FRONT INTO SNE LATE
SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. DECENT LOW LEVEL JET AND ANOMALOUS PWAT PLUME
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN TO SNE WHICH MAY BE
LOCALLY HEAVY...BUT THIS SYSTEM IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE. TIMING IS
STILL UNCERTAIN BUT IT APPEARS BULK OF RAIN WILL FALL DURING
SAT...WHICH MAY LINGER INTO SAT EVENING ACROSS E NEW ENG.

SUNDAY...
FRONT IS OFFSHORE SUNDAY WITH DRY WESTERLY FLOW WHICH WILL LEAD TO
SUNSHINE AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS. 850 MB TEMPS BELOW NORMAL AND WILL
LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS SUNDAY.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...
NEXT FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST BUT THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THE SHORTWAVE AND HOW PROGRESSIVE THE FRONT
WILL BE. EVEN FASTER GFS IS MAINLY DRY FOR MON SO WE ARE GOING WITH
A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW.  THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS WITH TUE AS
PROGRESSIVE GFS MOVES THE SHOWERS OFFSHORE WHILE MORE AMPLIFIED
ECMWF IS WET.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING.

THROUGH TONIGHT...
MAINLY IFR EAST OF AN IJD-ORH-MHT LINE...WITH MVFR WEST. THIS IS
MAINLY DUE TO CIGS THROUGH EVENING...BUT VSBYS MAY BEGIN TO DIP
AS WELL TONIGHT IN A MIX OF DRIZZLE/FOG/LIGHT RAIN. POSSIBILITY
OF PERIODIC IFR VSBYS. CIGS REMAIN LOW...BUT VSBYS LIFT DURING
THE MORNING HOURS AS RAIN BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD AND ALLOWS VSBYS
TO LIFT TO MAINLY MVFR/VFR. WINDS PICK UP NEAR SHORE IN THE
EAST...WITH A FEW GUSTS APPROACHING 20 KT AT COASTAL TERMINALS.

TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT....
MUCH OF THE SAME...MAINLY IFR/MVFR CIGS WITH SOME MVFR CONDITIONS
IN RAIN. EXPECT A VERY SLOW IMPROVEMENT FROM W TO E LATE IN THE
DAY AND OVERNIGHT...BUT THIS WILL BE MAINLY TOWARD RAIN
ENDING...WITH CATEGORIES ONLY REALLY IMPROVING DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS ON THU.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.
ALSO LOW CONFIDENCE OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE IMPROVEMENT IN THE MORNING.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. AREAS OF IFR IN THE MORNING SHOULD
IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON AS CIGS LIFT AND CLOUDS BREAK UP.

FRI...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR AS
SHOWERS MOVE INTO THE REGION. LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING. GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SHIFTING TO WEST SAT
NIGHT.

SUN...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT.

N-NE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
INTO TOMORROW...WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KT AT TIMES POSSIBLE
PARTICULARLY BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE OCEAN WATERS AS WELL AS RI/BI
SOUND FOR THESE WINDS...AND MAY NEED TO BE ADDED FOR THE WATERS
SURROUNDING CAPE COD FOR LATE IN THE DAY TOMORROW.

OTHERWISE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY DUE TO
INCREASING SWELL ALONE...WHICH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO REACH 7-8FT
BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON ON THE OCEAN WATERS. IT/S LIKELY THAT THESE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL NEED TO LINGER INTO THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THU INTO FRI...EXPECT NE WIND GUSTS TO 25-30 KT THU MORNING OVER SE
WATERS WHICH WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THU AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
CONTINUED NE WINDS FRI BUT SPEEDS LESS THAN SCA.  HAZARDOUS SEA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THU INTO FRI OVER OUTER WATERS.

SAT...SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH GUSTS
INCREASING TO 25-30 KT. WINDS SHIFTING TO WEST DURING SAT NIGHT.
HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER OUTER WATERS.  VSBYS MAY BE
REDUCED IN SHOWERS AND FOG.

SUN...WEST WINDS MAY GUST TO 25-30 KT IN POST FRONTAL AIRMASS.
HAZARDOUS SEAS CONTINUE OVER OUTER WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DOODY
NEAR TERM...KJC/DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/DOODY
MARINE...KJC/DOODY



000
FXUS61 KOKX 302233
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
633 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH MID WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ON
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY POTENTIALLY ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM DURING
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR THE EVENING AS PRECIPITATION IS MAINLY
OUTSIDE OF THE REGION...WITH ONE VORT MAX EAST OF CONNECTICUT AND
AN UPPER LOW AND VORT MAX WEST...ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY THROUGH
TONIGHT...ALSO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL APPROACH THE REGION. AS
THIS LOW APPROACHES THE AREA AND INTERACTS WITH THE SURFACE
TROUGH...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AFTER
MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND CONNECTICUT. POPS
WILL INCREASE TO LIKELY ACROSS THESE AREAS. FURTHER WEST...ACROSS
NYC...NJ AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...POPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
AS HIGH...AND WILL LIMIT POPS TO CHANCE. 12Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE PRECIPITATION...HOWEVER THERE
ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES WITH THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.
THE NAM WAS AN OUTLIER WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS COMING CLOSE TO OR
EXCEEDING AN INCH OVERNIGHT ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA.
FOLLOWED MORE OF A GFS/SREF/CMC BLEND WITH GAVE THE EASTERN
SECTIONS AROUND A QUARTER TO HALF INCH.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT OVERCAST SKIES AND AN EASTERLY WIND. TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60. FOLLOWED A MAV/MET
BLEND FOR LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
RAIN CONTINUES WEDNESDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE
STARTING TO SLOWLY TAPER OFF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVIER RAIN
HOWEVER THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE THIS OCCURS DUE TO
ITS MESOSCALE NATURE. THE 12Z MODELS HINT THAT IF THIS DOES
OCCUR...WITH WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF LONG ISLAND
AND CT.

CLOUDY SKIES AND AN EASTERLY-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OF MARITIME AIR
WILL PERSIST...WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE ON
WEDNESDAY.

POPS CONTINUES TO LOWER OVERNIGHT...BUT LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS
MAY PERSIST OVER EASTERN AREAS...AS UPPER LEVEL LOW CLOSES OFF AND
PUSHES EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NOT MANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED. LGT RAIN CHCS
REMAIN EARLY THU WITH THE BACKDOOR CDFNT...THEN HI PRES IS PROGGED
TO KEEP THE CWA DRY THRU FRI. THE CFP AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL ARE
STILL LINED UP FOR SAT. THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
THIS TIMING. POPS REMAIN LIKELY. TRIMMED BACK POPS FRI NGT AS MOST
OF THE PCPN IS TARGETED FOR SAT. DRY FOR SUN WITH ALL OF THE
MOISTURE SHUNTED OFF INTO ERN CANADA. HIGH TEMPS IN THE 60S STILL ON
TRACK. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST RAIN CHCS FOR THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK WITH THE UPR TROF APPROACHING. KEPT THE TIMING IN THE
GRIDS MAINLY MON-MON NGT CLOSER TO THE MORE CONSISTENT GFS. THE
ECMWF HOWEVER IS TRENDING SLOWER.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL STAY WEST OF THE REGION WITH A GENERAL E-NE
FLOW DURING TAF PERIOD. CONDITIONS VARYING FROM VFR TO MVFR TO
LOCALIZED IFR. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FURTHER IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED
FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. CONDITIONS TREND BACK DOWN TONIGHT WITH
MORE LOW STRATUS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN ACROSS ALL TERMINALS.

RAIN ACTIVITY...MAINLY EAST OF CITY TERMINALS AND GENERALLY
LIGHT...BECOMES MORE STEADY LATER TONIGHT AND MODERATE TO POSSIBLY
HEAVY WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE THE RAIN COULD MOVE AS FAR AS
WEST AS CITY TERMINALS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER WITH THIS SO
EXCLUDED THE MENTION OF RAIN IN TAFS FOR CITY TERMINALS AND NORTH
AND WEST AT THE CURRENT TIME.

FLUCTUATIONS BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR AND IFR AND MVFR ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE. MVFR TIMING COULD BE
OFF BY 1-3 HOURS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE. SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS
TO 20 KT POSSIBLE. MVFR TIMING COULD BE OFF BY 1-3 HOURS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE. MVFR TIMING COULD BE
OFF BY 1-3 HOURS.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE. MVFR TIMING COULD BE
OFF BY 1-3 HOURS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE. IMPROVEMENT FROM IFR
COULD BE OFF BY 1-3 HOURS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE. IMPROVEMENT FROM IFR
COULD BE OFF BY 1-3 HOURS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WED-WED NIGHT...MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN RAIN. E-NE WINDS 10-15
WITH G 20 KT ALONG THE COAST.
.THU...CHC MVFR MAINLY AM. NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.FRI...VFR. SE-S WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.SAT...RAIN LIKELY - MVFR OR LOWER AT TIMES. SE WIND 10-15G20 KT.
.SUN...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A STRONG EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW OF 15 TO 20 KT HAS ALLOWED SEAS ON
THE OCEAN WATERS TO BUILD TO AROUND 4 FT THIS EVENING...SO HAVE
INCREASED SEAS. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS THE AREA WATERS REMAIN
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND AN OFFSHORE LOW. THIS WILL
RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON THE
OCEAN WATERS. WINDS WILL GUST TO NEAR 25 KT AND SEAS WILL BUILD TO
4 TO 7 FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS. WILL EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ON THE OCEAN...SCA SEAS LIKELY THU-THU NGT. THEY MAY FALL BLW 5FT BY
FRI...BUT WILL ONCE AGAIN RAMP UP THRU THE WEEKEND.
ELSEWHERE...WINDS WILL BE CLOSE TO SCA LVLS THU...BUT SHOULD REMAIN
BLW FRI. SCA WINDS LIKELY SAT AND SUN. SCA COND POSSIBLE ALL WATERS
AGAIN ON MON AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS NYC...NORTHEASTERN
NJ...AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. RAINFALL ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND
CONNECTICUT WILL RANGE FROM A QUARTER OF AN INCH ACROSS WESTERN
PORTIONS TO NEAR 1 INCH ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PORTIONS. NO
HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED.

A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF RAIN POSSIBLE THU. AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN
POSSIBLE ON SAT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KOKX 302233
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
633 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH MID WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ON
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY POTENTIALLY ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM DURING
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR THE EVENING AS PRECIPITATION IS MAINLY
OUTSIDE OF THE REGION...WITH ONE VORT MAX EAST OF CONNECTICUT AND
AN UPPER LOW AND VORT MAX WEST...ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY THROUGH
TONIGHT...ALSO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL APPROACH THE REGION. AS
THIS LOW APPROACHES THE AREA AND INTERACTS WITH THE SURFACE
TROUGH...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AFTER
MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND CONNECTICUT. POPS
WILL INCREASE TO LIKELY ACROSS THESE AREAS. FURTHER WEST...ACROSS
NYC...NJ AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...POPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
AS HIGH...AND WILL LIMIT POPS TO CHANCE. 12Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE PRECIPITATION...HOWEVER THERE
ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES WITH THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.
THE NAM WAS AN OUTLIER WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS COMING CLOSE TO OR
EXCEEDING AN INCH OVERNIGHT ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA.
FOLLOWED MORE OF A GFS/SREF/CMC BLEND WITH GAVE THE EASTERN
SECTIONS AROUND A QUARTER TO HALF INCH.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT OVERCAST SKIES AND AN EASTERLY WIND. TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60. FOLLOWED A MAV/MET
BLEND FOR LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
RAIN CONTINUES WEDNESDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE
STARTING TO SLOWLY TAPER OFF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVIER RAIN
HOWEVER THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE THIS OCCURS DUE TO
ITS MESOSCALE NATURE. THE 12Z MODELS HINT THAT IF THIS DOES
OCCUR...WITH WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF LONG ISLAND
AND CT.

CLOUDY SKIES AND AN EASTERLY-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OF MARITIME AIR
WILL PERSIST...WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE ON
WEDNESDAY.

POPS CONTINUES TO LOWER OVERNIGHT...BUT LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS
MAY PERSIST OVER EASTERN AREAS...AS UPPER LEVEL LOW CLOSES OFF AND
PUSHES EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NOT MANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED. LGT RAIN CHCS
REMAIN EARLY THU WITH THE BACKDOOR CDFNT...THEN HI PRES IS PROGGED
TO KEEP THE CWA DRY THRU FRI. THE CFP AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL ARE
STILL LINED UP FOR SAT. THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
THIS TIMING. POPS REMAIN LIKELY. TRIMMED BACK POPS FRI NGT AS MOST
OF THE PCPN IS TARGETED FOR SAT. DRY FOR SUN WITH ALL OF THE
MOISTURE SHUNTED OFF INTO ERN CANADA. HIGH TEMPS IN THE 60S STILL ON
TRACK. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST RAIN CHCS FOR THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK WITH THE UPR TROF APPROACHING. KEPT THE TIMING IN THE
GRIDS MAINLY MON-MON NGT CLOSER TO THE MORE CONSISTENT GFS. THE
ECMWF HOWEVER IS TRENDING SLOWER.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL STAY WEST OF THE REGION WITH A GENERAL E-NE
FLOW DURING TAF PERIOD. CONDITIONS VARYING FROM VFR TO MVFR TO
LOCALIZED IFR. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FURTHER IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED
FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. CONDITIONS TREND BACK DOWN TONIGHT WITH
MORE LOW STRATUS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN ACROSS ALL TERMINALS.

RAIN ACTIVITY...MAINLY EAST OF CITY TERMINALS AND GENERALLY
LIGHT...BECOMES MORE STEADY LATER TONIGHT AND MODERATE TO POSSIBLY
HEAVY WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE THE RAIN COULD MOVE AS FAR AS
WEST AS CITY TERMINALS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER WITH THIS SO
EXCLUDED THE MENTION OF RAIN IN TAFS FOR CITY TERMINALS AND NORTH
AND WEST AT THE CURRENT TIME.

FLUCTUATIONS BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR AND IFR AND MVFR ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE. MVFR TIMING COULD BE
OFF BY 1-3 HOURS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE. SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS
TO 20 KT POSSIBLE. MVFR TIMING COULD BE OFF BY 1-3 HOURS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE. MVFR TIMING COULD BE
OFF BY 1-3 HOURS.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE. MVFR TIMING COULD BE
OFF BY 1-3 HOURS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE. IMPROVEMENT FROM IFR
COULD BE OFF BY 1-3 HOURS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE. IMPROVEMENT FROM IFR
COULD BE OFF BY 1-3 HOURS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WED-WED NIGHT...MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN RAIN. E-NE WINDS 10-15
WITH G 20 KT ALONG THE COAST.
.THU...CHC MVFR MAINLY AM. NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.FRI...VFR. SE-S WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.SAT...RAIN LIKELY - MVFR OR LOWER AT TIMES. SE WIND 10-15G20 KT.
.SUN...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A STRONG EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW OF 15 TO 20 KT HAS ALLOWED SEAS ON
THE OCEAN WATERS TO BUILD TO AROUND 4 FT THIS EVENING...SO HAVE
INCREASED SEAS. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS THE AREA WATERS REMAIN
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND AN OFFSHORE LOW. THIS WILL
RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON THE
OCEAN WATERS. WINDS WILL GUST TO NEAR 25 KT AND SEAS WILL BUILD TO
4 TO 7 FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS. WILL EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ON THE OCEAN...SCA SEAS LIKELY THU-THU NGT. THEY MAY FALL BLW 5FT BY
FRI...BUT WILL ONCE AGAIN RAMP UP THRU THE WEEKEND.
ELSEWHERE...WINDS WILL BE CLOSE TO SCA LVLS THU...BUT SHOULD REMAIN
BLW FRI. SCA WINDS LIKELY SAT AND SUN. SCA COND POSSIBLE ALL WATERS
AGAIN ON MON AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS NYC...NORTHEASTERN
NJ...AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. RAINFALL ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND
CONNECTICUT WILL RANGE FROM A QUARTER OF AN INCH ACROSS WESTERN
PORTIONS TO NEAR 1 INCH ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PORTIONS. NO
HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED.

A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF RAIN POSSIBLE THU. AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN
POSSIBLE ON SAT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KOKX 302233
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
633 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH MID WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ON
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY POTENTIALLY ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM DURING
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR THE EVENING AS PRECIPITATION IS MAINLY
OUTSIDE OF THE REGION...WITH ONE VORT MAX EAST OF CONNECTICUT AND
AN UPPER LOW AND VORT MAX WEST...ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY THROUGH
TONIGHT...ALSO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL APPROACH THE REGION. AS
THIS LOW APPROACHES THE AREA AND INTERACTS WITH THE SURFACE
TROUGH...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AFTER
MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND CONNECTICUT. POPS
WILL INCREASE TO LIKELY ACROSS THESE AREAS. FURTHER WEST...ACROSS
NYC...NJ AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...POPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
AS HIGH...AND WILL LIMIT POPS TO CHANCE. 12Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE PRECIPITATION...HOWEVER THERE
ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES WITH THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.
THE NAM WAS AN OUTLIER WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS COMING CLOSE TO OR
EXCEEDING AN INCH OVERNIGHT ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA.
FOLLOWED MORE OF A GFS/SREF/CMC BLEND WITH GAVE THE EASTERN
SECTIONS AROUND A QUARTER TO HALF INCH.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT OVERCAST SKIES AND AN EASTERLY WIND. TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60. FOLLOWED A MAV/MET
BLEND FOR LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
RAIN CONTINUES WEDNESDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE
STARTING TO SLOWLY TAPER OFF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVIER RAIN
HOWEVER THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE THIS OCCURS DUE TO
ITS MESOSCALE NATURE. THE 12Z MODELS HINT THAT IF THIS DOES
OCCUR...WITH WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF LONG ISLAND
AND CT.

CLOUDY SKIES AND AN EASTERLY-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OF MARITIME AIR
WILL PERSIST...WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE ON
WEDNESDAY.

POPS CONTINUES TO LOWER OVERNIGHT...BUT LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS
MAY PERSIST OVER EASTERN AREAS...AS UPPER LEVEL LOW CLOSES OFF AND
PUSHES EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NOT MANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED. LGT RAIN CHCS
REMAIN EARLY THU WITH THE BACKDOOR CDFNT...THEN HI PRES IS PROGGED
TO KEEP THE CWA DRY THRU FRI. THE CFP AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL ARE
STILL LINED UP FOR SAT. THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
THIS TIMING. POPS REMAIN LIKELY. TRIMMED BACK POPS FRI NGT AS MOST
OF THE PCPN IS TARGETED FOR SAT. DRY FOR SUN WITH ALL OF THE
MOISTURE SHUNTED OFF INTO ERN CANADA. HIGH TEMPS IN THE 60S STILL ON
TRACK. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST RAIN CHCS FOR THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK WITH THE UPR TROF APPROACHING. KEPT THE TIMING IN THE
GRIDS MAINLY MON-MON NGT CLOSER TO THE MORE CONSISTENT GFS. THE
ECMWF HOWEVER IS TRENDING SLOWER.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL STAY WEST OF THE REGION WITH A GENERAL E-NE
FLOW DURING TAF PERIOD. CONDITIONS VARYING FROM VFR TO MVFR TO
LOCALIZED IFR. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FURTHER IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED
FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. CONDITIONS TREND BACK DOWN TONIGHT WITH
MORE LOW STRATUS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN ACROSS ALL TERMINALS.

RAIN ACTIVITY...MAINLY EAST OF CITY TERMINALS AND GENERALLY
LIGHT...BECOMES MORE STEADY LATER TONIGHT AND MODERATE TO POSSIBLY
HEAVY WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE THE RAIN COULD MOVE AS FAR AS
WEST AS CITY TERMINALS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER WITH THIS SO
EXCLUDED THE MENTION OF RAIN IN TAFS FOR CITY TERMINALS AND NORTH
AND WEST AT THE CURRENT TIME.

FLUCTUATIONS BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR AND IFR AND MVFR ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE. MVFR TIMING COULD BE
OFF BY 1-3 HOURS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE. SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS
TO 20 KT POSSIBLE. MVFR TIMING COULD BE OFF BY 1-3 HOURS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE. MVFR TIMING COULD BE
OFF BY 1-3 HOURS.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE. MVFR TIMING COULD BE
OFF BY 1-3 HOURS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE. IMPROVEMENT FROM IFR
COULD BE OFF BY 1-3 HOURS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE. IMPROVEMENT FROM IFR
COULD BE OFF BY 1-3 HOURS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WED-WED NIGHT...MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN RAIN. E-NE WINDS 10-15
WITH G 20 KT ALONG THE COAST.
.THU...CHC MVFR MAINLY AM. NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.FRI...VFR. SE-S WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.SAT...RAIN LIKELY - MVFR OR LOWER AT TIMES. SE WIND 10-15G20 KT.
.SUN...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A STRONG EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW OF 15 TO 20 KT HAS ALLOWED SEAS ON
THE OCEAN WATERS TO BUILD TO AROUND 4 FT THIS EVENING...SO HAVE
INCREASED SEAS. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS THE AREA WATERS REMAIN
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND AN OFFSHORE LOW. THIS WILL
RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON THE
OCEAN WATERS. WINDS WILL GUST TO NEAR 25 KT AND SEAS WILL BUILD TO
4 TO 7 FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS. WILL EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ON THE OCEAN...SCA SEAS LIKELY THU-THU NGT. THEY MAY FALL BLW 5FT BY
FRI...BUT WILL ONCE AGAIN RAMP UP THRU THE WEEKEND.
ELSEWHERE...WINDS WILL BE CLOSE TO SCA LVLS THU...BUT SHOULD REMAIN
BLW FRI. SCA WINDS LIKELY SAT AND SUN. SCA COND POSSIBLE ALL WATERS
AGAIN ON MON AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS NYC...NORTHEASTERN
NJ...AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. RAINFALL ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND
CONNECTICUT WILL RANGE FROM A QUARTER OF AN INCH ACROSS WESTERN
PORTIONS TO NEAR 1 INCH ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PORTIONS. NO
HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED.

A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF RAIN POSSIBLE THU. AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN
POSSIBLE ON SAT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KOKX 302233
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
633 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH MID WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ON
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY POTENTIALLY ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM DURING
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR THE EVENING AS PRECIPITATION IS MAINLY
OUTSIDE OF THE REGION...WITH ONE VORT MAX EAST OF CONNECTICUT AND
AN UPPER LOW AND VORT MAX WEST...ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY THROUGH
TONIGHT...ALSO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL APPROACH THE REGION. AS
THIS LOW APPROACHES THE AREA AND INTERACTS WITH THE SURFACE
TROUGH...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AFTER
MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND CONNECTICUT. POPS
WILL INCREASE TO LIKELY ACROSS THESE AREAS. FURTHER WEST...ACROSS
NYC...NJ AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...POPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
AS HIGH...AND WILL LIMIT POPS TO CHANCE. 12Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE PRECIPITATION...HOWEVER THERE
ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES WITH THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.
THE NAM WAS AN OUTLIER WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS COMING CLOSE TO OR
EXCEEDING AN INCH OVERNIGHT ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA.
FOLLOWED MORE OF A GFS/SREF/CMC BLEND WITH GAVE THE EASTERN
SECTIONS AROUND A QUARTER TO HALF INCH.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT OVERCAST SKIES AND AN EASTERLY WIND. TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60. FOLLOWED A MAV/MET
BLEND FOR LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
RAIN CONTINUES WEDNESDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE
STARTING TO SLOWLY TAPER OFF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVIER RAIN
HOWEVER THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE THIS OCCURS DUE TO
ITS MESOSCALE NATURE. THE 12Z MODELS HINT THAT IF THIS DOES
OCCUR...WITH WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF LONG ISLAND
AND CT.

CLOUDY SKIES AND AN EASTERLY-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OF MARITIME AIR
WILL PERSIST...WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE ON
WEDNESDAY.

POPS CONTINUES TO LOWER OVERNIGHT...BUT LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS
MAY PERSIST OVER EASTERN AREAS...AS UPPER LEVEL LOW CLOSES OFF AND
PUSHES EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NOT MANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED. LGT RAIN CHCS
REMAIN EARLY THU WITH THE BACKDOOR CDFNT...THEN HI PRES IS PROGGED
TO KEEP THE CWA DRY THRU FRI. THE CFP AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL ARE
STILL LINED UP FOR SAT. THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
THIS TIMING. POPS REMAIN LIKELY. TRIMMED BACK POPS FRI NGT AS MOST
OF THE PCPN IS TARGETED FOR SAT. DRY FOR SUN WITH ALL OF THE
MOISTURE SHUNTED OFF INTO ERN CANADA. HIGH TEMPS IN THE 60S STILL ON
TRACK. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST RAIN CHCS FOR THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK WITH THE UPR TROF APPROACHING. KEPT THE TIMING IN THE
GRIDS MAINLY MON-MON NGT CLOSER TO THE MORE CONSISTENT GFS. THE
ECMWF HOWEVER IS TRENDING SLOWER.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL STAY WEST OF THE REGION WITH A GENERAL E-NE
FLOW DURING TAF PERIOD. CONDITIONS VARYING FROM VFR TO MVFR TO
LOCALIZED IFR. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FURTHER IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED
FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. CONDITIONS TREND BACK DOWN TONIGHT WITH
MORE LOW STRATUS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN ACROSS ALL TERMINALS.

RAIN ACTIVITY...MAINLY EAST OF CITY TERMINALS AND GENERALLY
LIGHT...BECOMES MORE STEADY LATER TONIGHT AND MODERATE TO POSSIBLY
HEAVY WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE THE RAIN COULD MOVE AS FAR AS
WEST AS CITY TERMINALS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER WITH THIS SO
EXCLUDED THE MENTION OF RAIN IN TAFS FOR CITY TERMINALS AND NORTH
AND WEST AT THE CURRENT TIME.

FLUCTUATIONS BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR AND IFR AND MVFR ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE. MVFR TIMING COULD BE
OFF BY 1-3 HOURS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE. SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS
TO 20 KT POSSIBLE. MVFR TIMING COULD BE OFF BY 1-3 HOURS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE. MVFR TIMING COULD BE
OFF BY 1-3 HOURS.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE. MVFR TIMING COULD BE
OFF BY 1-3 HOURS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE. IMPROVEMENT FROM IFR
COULD BE OFF BY 1-3 HOURS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE. IMPROVEMENT FROM IFR
COULD BE OFF BY 1-3 HOURS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WED-WED NIGHT...MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN RAIN. E-NE WINDS 10-15
WITH G 20 KT ALONG THE COAST.
.THU...CHC MVFR MAINLY AM. NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.FRI...VFR. SE-S WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.SAT...RAIN LIKELY - MVFR OR LOWER AT TIMES. SE WIND 10-15G20 KT.
.SUN...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A STRONG EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW OF 15 TO 20 KT HAS ALLOWED SEAS ON
THE OCEAN WATERS TO BUILD TO AROUND 4 FT THIS EVENING...SO HAVE
INCREASED SEAS. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS THE AREA WATERS REMAIN
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND AN OFFSHORE LOW. THIS WILL
RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON THE
OCEAN WATERS. WINDS WILL GUST TO NEAR 25 KT AND SEAS WILL BUILD TO
4 TO 7 FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS. WILL EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ON THE OCEAN...SCA SEAS LIKELY THU-THU NGT. THEY MAY FALL BLW 5FT BY
FRI...BUT WILL ONCE AGAIN RAMP UP THRU THE WEEKEND.
ELSEWHERE...WINDS WILL BE CLOSE TO SCA LVLS THU...BUT SHOULD REMAIN
BLW FRI. SCA WINDS LIKELY SAT AND SUN. SCA COND POSSIBLE ALL WATERS
AGAIN ON MON AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS NYC...NORTHEASTERN
NJ...AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. RAINFALL ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND
CONNECTICUT WILL RANGE FROM A QUARTER OF AN INCH ACROSS WESTERN
PORTIONS TO NEAR 1 INCH ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PORTIONS. NO
HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED.

A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF RAIN POSSIBLE THU. AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN
POSSIBLE ON SAT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KALY 302017
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
417 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED INTO
WEDNESDAY. DRY AND MILD WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A
POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY, BRINGING WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS. TYPICAL FALL
WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 405 PM EDT...RADARS SHOWING A FEW SMALL SHOWERS DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CATSKILLS, ABOUT WHERE EXPECTED.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND EVEN ISOLATED T-STORMS ARE FURTHER TO THE
WEST OUT TOWARD BINGHAMTON. OVERALL FLOW IS PRETTY WEAK, SO THESE
SHOWERS WON`T MOVE MUCH -- AND I EXPECT THEM TO FADE AWAY SHORTLY
AS WE`VE ALREADY PAST OUR PEAK HEATING TIME. STILL A BUNCH OF LOW
CLOUDS, ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND, ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BACK DOOR FRONT AND MOIST EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. STILL EXPECT
THESE CLOUDS TO PROGRESS A BIT MORE TO THE WEST DURING THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT.

AS MENTIONED EARLIER, STILL LOOKS LIKE THE UPPER LOW (WHICH IS
SPARKING THE CONVECTION FARTHER WEST) WILL MOVE TO A POSITION OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS UPPER LOW
WILL WORK WITH THE MOISTURE TO SPAWN SCATTERED SHOWERS, PRIMARILY
FOR SOUTHERN & EASTER SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE PAINTED
IN 30-50% POPS FROM THE BERKSHIRES INTO NW CONNECTICUT AND THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. POPS DECREASE AS YOU HEAD
FURTHER NORTHWEST -- BECOMING NEGLIGIBLE AS YOU REACH THE `DACKS.

HONESTLY, NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECASTS. I
TOOK A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE, BUT WITH THE MODELS NOT
HANDLING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE (AND CLOUDS) VERY WELL, THE
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS MAY END UP BEING NOT THE GREATEST. IN
GENERAL, WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE COOLEST TEMPERATURES (LOW-MID 60S)
IN SOUTH/EAST AREAS WITH SOME UPPER 60S TO PERHAPS 70 MORE
NORTH/WEST WHERE IT WILL BE DRIER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 405 PM EDT...CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
AT LEAST WITH THE SHOWERS COMING TO AN END AS THE UPPER LOW SLIDES
TO THE EAST. HOWEVER, LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST AS THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS LIGHT EASTERLY. AGAIN, TOOK A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE AND CAVEATES WITH REGARD TO THE CLOUDS IMPACTING
TEMPERATURES REMAIN. IN GENERAL, THURSDAY WILL FEATURE HIGHS IN
THE 60S. OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTH NIGHTS WON`T BE TOO FAR FROM NORMAL
-- 40S IN THE COOLER AREAS TO 50S FOR EVERYONE ELSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 405 PM EDT...MAIN WEATHER EVENT IS DURING THIS PERIOD. A
POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SWING THROUGH MAINLY ON SATURDAY,
AND IN IT`S WAKE MORE TYPICAL FALL WEATHER WILL BE SEEN. 12Z
GUIDANCE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT, SO FOR THE MOST PART I TOOK A
BLEND OF GFS AND EURO. DAILY DETAILS BELOW...

FRIDAY: HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN, SO IT WILL BE DRY. RIDGING ALOFT
MEANS IT SHOULD ALSO BE SUNNY AS IT LOOKS LIKE THE MOIST EASTERLY
FLOW SHOULD HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL,
TOUCHING 70F IN THE WARMER VALLEYS

SATURDAY: PRECIPITATION STARTS COMING IN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/FIRST
THING SATURDAY. LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL JET WITH
850MB WINDS 40-50KTS. COULD BE SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND SOME VALLEYS. OTHERWISE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE SYSTEM
WILL BE TAPPING SOME DECENT MOISTURE, SO A GOOD 8-12 HOURS OF
RAIN, WITH SOME EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS IS EXPECTED. THE CLOUDS
AND RAIN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S. INITIAL THINKING IS
THAT RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH ARE POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY: POST FRONTAL CONDITIONS WITH PERHAPS SOME GUSTY
WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS. SHOULD BE FAIRLY CLOUDY, THANKS TO LAKE
EFFECT MOISTURE STREAMING OFF LAKE ONTARIO AND ERIE, THOUGH THE
FARTHER SOUTHEAST YOU GO, THE MORE DOWNSLOPING AND BETTER CHANCE
FOR SOME SUNSHINE. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALLING TOWARD 0C BY
LATE IN THE DAY, SO FAIRLY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE
HAPPENING. HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S TO A FEW LOWER 60S IN THE FARTHER
SOUTH/EAST AREAS THANKS TO THE WARMING DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS. SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY, WITH THE COLDER AREAS DROPPING INTO THE 30S,
BUT LOOKS LIKE WINDS WILL STAY UP ENOUGH TO MITIGATE FROST
POTENTIAL.

MONDAY/TUESDAY: ANOTHER SYSTEM COMES INTO THE AREA. 12Z GUIDANCE
HAS MORE DIFFERENCES, SO KEPT WITH A MORE BROADBRUSH FORECAST FOR
BOTH DAYS SHOWING CHANCE LEVEL POPS AND A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS.
AGAIN A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES AS WELL. SEEMED LIKE
THE BEST WAY TO GO.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...COMBINATION OF VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS
(DUE TO THE LOW CLOUDS/CEILINGS). SOME IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED THE
NEXT FEW HOURS, BUT WITH SUNSET EXPECT THE LOWER CLOUDS ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO BEGIN TO EXPAND WESTWARD AND FILLING IN
THROUGH THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. ANTICIPATE MVFR, IF NOT IFR,
CEILINGS TO BE COMMON AFTER 06Z. MAY EVEN AGAIN SEE FOG DEVELOPING
SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT. EXPECTING A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AROUND
POU. AT THIS POINT JUST MENTIONED VCSH SINCE TIMING IS UNCERTAIN.
THESE SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND INTO MUCH OF WEDNESDAY AS WELL. COULD
SEE PRECIPITATION AS FAR NORTH AS ALB AND PSF, BUT KEPT THE
MENTION OF SHOWERS OUT AT THIS TIME SINCE THE CHANCES ARE LOW.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. AGAIN, THE IFR CONDITIONS
WILL ONLY SLOWLY IMPROVE TO MVFR AFTER 14/15Z WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY..
18Z WED TO 00Z FRI...MVFR TO LOCAL IFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
00Z FRI TO 12Z SAT...PRIMARILY VFR
12Z SAT ONWARD...MVFR WITH SHOWERS. STRONG/GUSTY SURFACE WINDS AND
LLWS ALSO POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC RELATED ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK.

ANY SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL NOT PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED SATURDAY. THOUGH
RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE HEAVIER -- PERHAPS 3/4" OR SO --- NO
SIGNIFICANT RESPONSES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS POINT ON AREA RIVERS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...NASH
HYDROLOGY...NASH







000
FXUS61 KALY 302017
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
417 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED INTO
WEDNESDAY. DRY AND MILD WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A
POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY, BRINGING WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS. TYPICAL FALL
WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 405 PM EDT...RADARS SHOWING A FEW SMALL SHOWERS DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CATSKILLS, ABOUT WHERE EXPECTED.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND EVEN ISOLATED T-STORMS ARE FURTHER TO THE
WEST OUT TOWARD BINGHAMTON. OVERALL FLOW IS PRETTY WEAK, SO THESE
SHOWERS WON`T MOVE MUCH -- AND I EXPECT THEM TO FADE AWAY SHORTLY
AS WE`VE ALREADY PAST OUR PEAK HEATING TIME. STILL A BUNCH OF LOW
CLOUDS, ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND, ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BACK DOOR FRONT AND MOIST EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. STILL EXPECT
THESE CLOUDS TO PROGRESS A BIT MORE TO THE WEST DURING THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT.

AS MENTIONED EARLIER, STILL LOOKS LIKE THE UPPER LOW (WHICH IS
SPARKING THE CONVECTION FARTHER WEST) WILL MOVE TO A POSITION OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS UPPER LOW
WILL WORK WITH THE MOISTURE TO SPAWN SCATTERED SHOWERS, PRIMARILY
FOR SOUTHERN & EASTER SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE PAINTED
IN 30-50% POPS FROM THE BERKSHIRES INTO NW CONNECTICUT AND THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. POPS DECREASE AS YOU HEAD
FURTHER NORTHWEST -- BECOMING NEGLIGIBLE AS YOU REACH THE `DACKS.

HONESTLY, NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECASTS. I
TOOK A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE, BUT WITH THE MODELS NOT
HANDLING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE (AND CLOUDS) VERY WELL, THE
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS MAY END UP BEING NOT THE GREATEST. IN
GENERAL, WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE COOLEST TEMPERATURES (LOW-MID 60S)
IN SOUTH/EAST AREAS WITH SOME UPPER 60S TO PERHAPS 70 MORE
NORTH/WEST WHERE IT WILL BE DRIER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 405 PM EDT...CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
AT LEAST WITH THE SHOWERS COMING TO AN END AS THE UPPER LOW SLIDES
TO THE EAST. HOWEVER, LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST AS THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS LIGHT EASTERLY. AGAIN, TOOK A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE AND CAVEATES WITH REGARD TO THE CLOUDS IMPACTING
TEMPERATURES REMAIN. IN GENERAL, THURSDAY WILL FEATURE HIGHS IN
THE 60S. OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTH NIGHTS WON`T BE TOO FAR FROM NORMAL
-- 40S IN THE COOLER AREAS TO 50S FOR EVERYONE ELSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 405 PM EDT...MAIN WEATHER EVENT IS DURING THIS PERIOD. A
POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SWING THROUGH MAINLY ON SATURDAY,
AND IN IT`S WAKE MORE TYPICAL FALL WEATHER WILL BE SEEN. 12Z
GUIDANCE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT, SO FOR THE MOST PART I TOOK A
BLEND OF GFS AND EURO. DAILY DETAILS BELOW...

FRIDAY: HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN, SO IT WILL BE DRY. RIDGING ALOFT
MEANS IT SHOULD ALSO BE SUNNY AS IT LOOKS LIKE THE MOIST EASTERLY
FLOW SHOULD HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL,
TOUCHING 70F IN THE WARMER VALLEYS

SATURDAY: PRECIPITATION STARTS COMING IN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/FIRST
THING SATURDAY. LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL JET WITH
850MB WINDS 40-50KTS. COULD BE SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND SOME VALLEYS. OTHERWISE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE SYSTEM
WILL BE TAPPING SOME DECENT MOISTURE, SO A GOOD 8-12 HOURS OF
RAIN, WITH SOME EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS IS EXPECTED. THE CLOUDS
AND RAIN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S. INITIAL THINKING IS
THAT RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH ARE POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY: POST FRONTAL CONDITIONS WITH PERHAPS SOME GUSTY
WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS. SHOULD BE FAIRLY CLOUDY, THANKS TO LAKE
EFFECT MOISTURE STREAMING OFF LAKE ONTARIO AND ERIE, THOUGH THE
FARTHER SOUTHEAST YOU GO, THE MORE DOWNSLOPING AND BETTER CHANCE
FOR SOME SUNSHINE. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALLING TOWARD 0C BY
LATE IN THE DAY, SO FAIRLY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE
HAPPENING. HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S TO A FEW LOWER 60S IN THE FARTHER
SOUTH/EAST AREAS THANKS TO THE WARMING DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS. SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY, WITH THE COLDER AREAS DROPPING INTO THE 30S,
BUT LOOKS LIKE WINDS WILL STAY UP ENOUGH TO MITIGATE FROST
POTENTIAL.

MONDAY/TUESDAY: ANOTHER SYSTEM COMES INTO THE AREA. 12Z GUIDANCE
HAS MORE DIFFERENCES, SO KEPT WITH A MORE BROADBRUSH FORECAST FOR
BOTH DAYS SHOWING CHANCE LEVEL POPS AND A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS.
AGAIN A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES AS WELL. SEEMED LIKE
THE BEST WAY TO GO.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...COMBINATION OF VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS
(DUE TO THE LOW CLOUDS/CEILINGS). SOME IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED THE
NEXT FEW HOURS, BUT WITH SUNSET EXPECT THE LOWER CLOUDS ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO BEGIN TO EXPAND WESTWARD AND FILLING IN
THROUGH THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. ANTICIPATE MVFR, IF NOT IFR,
CEILINGS TO BE COMMON AFTER 06Z. MAY EVEN AGAIN SEE FOG DEVELOPING
SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT. EXPECTING A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AROUND
POU. AT THIS POINT JUST MENTIONED VCSH SINCE TIMING IS UNCERTAIN.
THESE SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND INTO MUCH OF WEDNESDAY AS WELL. COULD
SEE PRECIPITATION AS FAR NORTH AS ALB AND PSF, BUT KEPT THE
MENTION OF SHOWERS OUT AT THIS TIME SINCE THE CHANCES ARE LOW.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. AGAIN, THE IFR CONDITIONS
WILL ONLY SLOWLY IMPROVE TO MVFR AFTER 14/15Z WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY..
18Z WED TO 00Z FRI...MVFR TO LOCAL IFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
00Z FRI TO 12Z SAT...PRIMARILY VFR
12Z SAT ONWARD...MVFR WITH SHOWERS. STRONG/GUSTY SURFACE WINDS AND
LLWS ALSO POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC RELATED ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK.

ANY SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL NOT PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED SATURDAY. THOUGH
RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE HEAVIER -- PERHAPS 3/4" OR SO --- NO
SIGNIFICANT RESPONSES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS POINT ON AREA RIVERS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...NASH
HYDROLOGY...NASH








000
FXUS61 KBOX 302016
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
416 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL DAMP CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE INTO THURSDAY...WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED TOMORROW. DRY WEATHER RETURNS LATER
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE
REGION. A COLD FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY
BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
BAND OF LIGHT WITH A FEW POCKETS OF MOD RAINFALL CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY DISSIPATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND SHIFT E. THIS IS THE
EXPECTED TREND WITH TIME AS OCEAN LOW PRES CONTINUES TO DEVELOP
WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE 40/70 BENCHMARK AND BEGINS PULLING MOISTURE
TO THE E AT LEAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER...GIVEN ALL
THE N-NE FLOW OFF THE COOL GULF OF MAINE...THE CLOUDY DAMP
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLY TRANSITIONING TO MIX
OF FOG AND DRIZZLE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. GIVEN THIS
FACT...EXPECT MINS TO BE NOT TOO FAR AWAY FROM CURRENT HIGH
TEMPS...ONLY DIPPING BACK INTO THE LOW-MID 50S WITH MAYBE A SPOT
UPPER 40F.

THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS HOWEVER...EXPECT INVERTED TROF
BETWEEN THE OFFSHORE LOW PRES AND THE E MOVING UPPER CUTOFF TO
BEGIN TO ENHANCE. NOTE INCREASE IN BAROCLINICITY AND DEFORMATION
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING...WHICH COMBINED WITH
DEEPENING MOISTURE FROM THE SFC TO H4 OR SO...SUSPECT INCREASE IN
MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...SUCH THAT IT/S LIKELY RAINING AT OVER MUCH OF THE
BOX CWA BY 12Z. MORE ON THIS FOR IN THE TOMORROW DISCUSSION
BELOW. HAVE POPS INCREASING AFTER 06Z TO LIKELY...BUT IT/S LIKELY
CATEGORICAL POPS WILL BE NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...AS UPPER LVL CUTOFF SHIFTS ALMOST DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD AND LOW PRES CONTINUES WELL TO THE SE OF THE
BENCHMARK...A MODERATE INVERTED TROF IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS PROVIDES
BETTER F-GEN AND EVEN A DEFORMATION AXIS FOR DEEPER LIFT ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS IS ALSO COMBINED WITH MODEST ELY LLJ WITH WIND
SPEEDS AT H85 AROUND 25-30 KT /2+ STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL/
AND PWATS TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES WHICH IS 1-2 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL FOR EARLY OCTOBER. THEREFORE...EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL ACROSS MOST OF SRN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE DAY...ITS NOT
UNTIL THE SFC OCEAN SYSTEM PULLS E LATE IN THE DAY THAT THE
MOISTURE BEGINS TO DECREASE. MANY AREAS MAY RECEIVE SOME OF THE
STEADY SOAKING RAINFALL THEY HAVE NEEDED FOR SOME TIME NOW WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGING 0.25-0.75 INCHES.
POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAIN ARE ALSO POSSIBLE GIVEN THE BANDING
POTENTIAL WHICH MAY BE ENHANCED THANKS TO K-VALUES IN THE LOW
30S...BUT IT/S DIFFICULT TO SAY EXACTLY WHERE THIS WILL SET UP. SO
WILL AT LEAST HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALIZED AREAS OF
1.0+ INCHES. FOR NOW...THE BEST CHANCE LOOKS LIKE SE MA...WHERE
THE INVERTED TROF HOLDS IN THE LONGEST...BUT IT/S NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION IT IS OBSERVED INLAND...ESPECIALLY WHERE AN E COMPONENT
TO THE FLOW ENHANCES UPSLOPE.

OTHER THAN THE RAINFALL...COOL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED AS MANY
LOCATIONS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES.

TOMORROW NIGHT...
RAINFALL WILL SLOWLY COME TO AN END FROM W TO E THROUGH THE
EVENING...POSSIBLY LINGERING ACROSS RI AND SE MA INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...WITH E COMPONENT TO THE FLOW...AND LOW
LVL MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE...EXPECT ANOTHER CHANCE FOR FOG
AND DRIZZLE AT TIMES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MIN TEMPS REMAIN
LIKELY IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS FRIDAY
* RAIN LIKELY SATURDAY
* COOLER AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
* MORE SHOWERS POSSIBLE TUESDAY

OVERVIEW...
MEDIUM RANGE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. MID
LEVEL LOW EXITS THE REGION TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...THEN MAIN
FEATURE WILL BE AN ANOMALOUS MID LEVEL TROF/LOW DIGGING INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND WESTERN GT LAKES BY SAT. A PIECE OF ENERGY
ROTATING AROUND THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL BRING A FRONTAL SYSTEM INTO
NEW ENG LATE SAT/SAT NIGHT WHICH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A PERIOD OF
RAIN WHICH MAY BE LOCALLY HEAVY...BUT EXACT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN.
AFTER SHORTWAVE EXITS...BROAD TROF WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA AND GT LAKES SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NEXT SHORTWAVE
AND FRONT APPROACHING NEXT TUESDAY. THERE ARE ALSO TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH THIS FRONT AS THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE
ECMWF WHICH WILL AFFECT TIMING OF POTENTIAL SHOWERS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DAILIES...

THURSDAY...
MID LEVEL LOW WILL GRADUALLY PULL AWAY FROM SE NEW ENG AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS INTO THE REGION.  CROSS SECTIONS SUGGEST MOCLDY SKIES DURING
THE MORNING AND CANT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST IN
PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW...THEN BECOMING PTSUNNY FROM WEST TO EAST
IN THE AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN. WITH NE FLOW... TEMPS WILL
HOLD IN THE 60S.

FRIDAY...
SNE WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH HIGH PRES OVERHEAD LEADING TO
MOSUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.  WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOUDS BACKING IN
FROM THE OCEAN ASSOCIATED WITH OFFSHORE STORM WHICH MAY BRING MORE
CLOUDS TO THE OUTER CAPE.  GFS AND NAM ARE SUGGESTING THIS INCREASED
CLOUD COVER WHILE ECMWF KEEPS CLOUDS TO THE EAST.  WITH CONTINUED
ONSHORE FLOW TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S...COOLEST E MA COAST.

SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF COLD FRONT INTO SNE LATE
SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. DECENT LOW LEVEL JET AND ANOMALOUS PWAT PLUME
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN TO SNE WHICH MAY BE
LOCALLY HEAVY...BUT THIS SYSTEM IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE. TIMING IS
STILL UNCERTAIN BUT IT APPEARS BULK OF RAIN WILL FALL DURING
SAT...WHICH MAY LINGER INTO SAT EVENING ACROSS E NEW ENG.

SUNDAY...
FRONT IS OFFSHORE SUNDAY WITH DRY WESTERLY FLOW WHICH WILL LEAD TO
SUNSHINE AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS. 850 MB TEMPS BELOW NORMAL AND WILL
LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS SUNDAY.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...
NEXT FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST BUT THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THE SHORTWAVE AND HOW PROGRESSIVE THE FRONT
WILL BE. EVEN FASTER GFS IS MAINLY DRY FOR MON SO WE ARE GOING WITH
A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW.  THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS WITH TUE AS
PROGRESSIVE GFS MOVES THE SHOWERS OFFSHORE WHILE MORE AMPLIFIED
ECMWF IS WET.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING.

THROUGH TONIGHT...
MAINLY IFR IN EAST OF AN IJD-ORH-MHT LINE...WITH MVFR WEST. THIS
IS MAINLY DUE TO CIGS THROUGH EVENING...BUT AROUND 23Z AND AFTER
VSBYS MAY BEGIN TO DIP AS WELL IN A MIX OF DRIZZLE/FOG/LIGHT RAIN.
POSSIBILITY OF PERIODIC IFR VSBYS...BUT MAINLY VFR EXPECTED. CIGS
REMAIN LOW...BUT VSBYS LIFT DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS RAIN
BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD AND ALLOWS VSBYS TO LIFT TO MAINLY
MVFR/VFR. WINDS PICK UP NEAR SHORE IN THE EAST...WITH A FEW GUSTS
APPROACHING 20 KT AT COASTAL TERMINALS.

TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT....
MUCH OF THE SAME...MAINLY IFR/MVFR CIGS WITH SOME MVFR CONDITIONS
IN RAIN. EXPECT A VERY SLOW IMPROVEMENT FROM W TO E LATE IN THE
DAY AND OVERNIGHT...BUT THIS WILL BE MAINLY TOWARD RAIN
ENDING...WITH CATEGORIES ONLY REALLY IMPROVING DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS ON THU.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.
ALSO LOW CONFIDENCE OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE IMPROVEMENT IN THE MORNING.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. AREAS OF IFR IN THE MORNING SHOULD
IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON AS CIGS LIFT AND CLOUDS BREAK UP.

FRI...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR AS
SHOWERS MOVE INTO THE REGION. LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING. GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SHIFTING TO WEST SAT
NIGHT.

SUN...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT.

N-NE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
INTO TOMORROW...WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KT AT TIMES POSSIBLE
PARTICULARLY BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE OCEAN WATERS AS WELL AS RI/BI
SOUND FOR THESE WINDS...AND MAY NEED TO BE ADDED FOR THE WATERS
SURROUNDING CAPE COD FOR LATE IN THE DAY TOMORROW.

OTHERWISE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY DUE TO
INCREASING SWELL ALONE...WHICH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO REACH 7-8FT
BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON ON THE OCEAN WATERS. IT/S LIKELY THAT THESE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL NEED TO LINGER INTO THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THU INTO FRI...EXPECT NE WIND GUSTS TO 25-30 KT THU MORNING OVER SE
WATERS WHICH WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THU AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
CONTINUED NE WINDS FRI BUT SPEEDS LESS THAN SCA.  HAZARDOUS SEA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THU INTO FRI OVER OUTER WATERS.

SAT...SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH GUSTS
INCREASING TO 25-30 KT. WINDS SHIFTING TO WEST DURING SAT NIGHT.
HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER OUTER WATERS.  VSBYS MAY BE
REDUCED IN SHOWERS AND FOG.

SUN...WEST WINDS MAY GUST TO 25-30 KT IN POST FRONTAL AIRMASS.
HAZARDOUS SEAS CONTINUE OVER OUTER WATERS.


&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DOODY
NEAR TERM...DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/DOODY
MARINE...KJC/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 302016
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
416 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL DAMP CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE INTO THURSDAY...WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED TOMORROW. DRY WEATHER RETURNS LATER
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE
REGION. A COLD FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY
BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
BAND OF LIGHT WITH A FEW POCKETS OF MOD RAINFALL CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY DISSIPATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND SHIFT E. THIS IS THE
EXPECTED TREND WITH TIME AS OCEAN LOW PRES CONTINUES TO DEVELOP
WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE 40/70 BENCHMARK AND BEGINS PULLING MOISTURE
TO THE E AT LEAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER...GIVEN ALL
THE N-NE FLOW OFF THE COOL GULF OF MAINE...THE CLOUDY DAMP
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLY TRANSITIONING TO MIX
OF FOG AND DRIZZLE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. GIVEN THIS
FACT...EXPECT MINS TO BE NOT TOO FAR AWAY FROM CURRENT HIGH
TEMPS...ONLY DIPPING BACK INTO THE LOW-MID 50S WITH MAYBE A SPOT
UPPER 40F.

THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS HOWEVER...EXPECT INVERTED TROF
BETWEEN THE OFFSHORE LOW PRES AND THE E MOVING UPPER CUTOFF TO
BEGIN TO ENHANCE. NOTE INCREASE IN BAROCLINICITY AND DEFORMATION
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING...WHICH COMBINED WITH
DEEPENING MOISTURE FROM THE SFC TO H4 OR SO...SUSPECT INCREASE IN
MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...SUCH THAT IT/S LIKELY RAINING AT OVER MUCH OF THE
BOX CWA BY 12Z. MORE ON THIS FOR IN THE TOMORROW DISCUSSION
BELOW. HAVE POPS INCREASING AFTER 06Z TO LIKELY...BUT IT/S LIKELY
CATEGORICAL POPS WILL BE NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...AS UPPER LVL CUTOFF SHIFTS ALMOST DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD AND LOW PRES CONTINUES WELL TO THE SE OF THE
BENCHMARK...A MODERATE INVERTED TROF IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS PROVIDES
BETTER F-GEN AND EVEN A DEFORMATION AXIS FOR DEEPER LIFT ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS IS ALSO COMBINED WITH MODEST ELY LLJ WITH WIND
SPEEDS AT H85 AROUND 25-30 KT /2+ STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL/
AND PWATS TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES WHICH IS 1-2 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL FOR EARLY OCTOBER. THEREFORE...EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL ACROSS MOST OF SRN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE DAY...ITS NOT
UNTIL THE SFC OCEAN SYSTEM PULLS E LATE IN THE DAY THAT THE
MOISTURE BEGINS TO DECREASE. MANY AREAS MAY RECEIVE SOME OF THE
STEADY SOAKING RAINFALL THEY HAVE NEEDED FOR SOME TIME NOW WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGING 0.25-0.75 INCHES.
POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAIN ARE ALSO POSSIBLE GIVEN THE BANDING
POTENTIAL WHICH MAY BE ENHANCED THANKS TO K-VALUES IN THE LOW
30S...BUT IT/S DIFFICULT TO SAY EXACTLY WHERE THIS WILL SET UP. SO
WILL AT LEAST HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALIZED AREAS OF
1.0+ INCHES. FOR NOW...THE BEST CHANCE LOOKS LIKE SE MA...WHERE
THE INVERTED TROF HOLDS IN THE LONGEST...BUT IT/S NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION IT IS OBSERVED INLAND...ESPECIALLY WHERE AN E COMPONENT
TO THE FLOW ENHANCES UPSLOPE.

OTHER THAN THE RAINFALL...COOL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED AS MANY
LOCATIONS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES.

TOMORROW NIGHT...
RAINFALL WILL SLOWLY COME TO AN END FROM W TO E THROUGH THE
EVENING...POSSIBLY LINGERING ACROSS RI AND SE MA INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...WITH E COMPONENT TO THE FLOW...AND LOW
LVL MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE...EXPECT ANOTHER CHANCE FOR FOG
AND DRIZZLE AT TIMES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MIN TEMPS REMAIN
LIKELY IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS FRIDAY
* RAIN LIKELY SATURDAY
* COOLER AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
* MORE SHOWERS POSSIBLE TUESDAY

OVERVIEW...
MEDIUM RANGE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. MID
LEVEL LOW EXITS THE REGION TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...THEN MAIN
FEATURE WILL BE AN ANOMALOUS MID LEVEL TROF/LOW DIGGING INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND WESTERN GT LAKES BY SAT. A PIECE OF ENERGY
ROTATING AROUND THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL BRING A FRONTAL SYSTEM INTO
NEW ENG LATE SAT/SAT NIGHT WHICH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A PERIOD OF
RAIN WHICH MAY BE LOCALLY HEAVY...BUT EXACT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN.
AFTER SHORTWAVE EXITS...BROAD TROF WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA AND GT LAKES SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NEXT SHORTWAVE
AND FRONT APPROACHING NEXT TUESDAY. THERE ARE ALSO TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH THIS FRONT AS THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE
ECMWF WHICH WILL AFFECT TIMING OF POTENTIAL SHOWERS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DAILIES...

THURSDAY...
MID LEVEL LOW WILL GRADUALLY PULL AWAY FROM SE NEW ENG AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS INTO THE REGION.  CROSS SECTIONS SUGGEST MOCLDY SKIES DURING
THE MORNING AND CANT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST IN
PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW...THEN BECOMING PTSUNNY FROM WEST TO EAST
IN THE AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN. WITH NE FLOW... TEMPS WILL
HOLD IN THE 60S.

FRIDAY...
SNE WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH HIGH PRES OVERHEAD LEADING TO
MOSUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.  WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOUDS BACKING IN
FROM THE OCEAN ASSOCIATED WITH OFFSHORE STORM WHICH MAY BRING MORE
CLOUDS TO THE OUTER CAPE.  GFS AND NAM ARE SUGGESTING THIS INCREASED
CLOUD COVER WHILE ECMWF KEEPS CLOUDS TO THE EAST.  WITH CONTINUED
ONSHORE FLOW TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S...COOLEST E MA COAST.

SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF COLD FRONT INTO SNE LATE
SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. DECENT LOW LEVEL JET AND ANOMALOUS PWAT PLUME
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN TO SNE WHICH MAY BE
LOCALLY HEAVY...BUT THIS SYSTEM IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE. TIMING IS
STILL UNCERTAIN BUT IT APPEARS BULK OF RAIN WILL FALL DURING
SAT...WHICH MAY LINGER INTO SAT EVENING ACROSS E NEW ENG.

SUNDAY...
FRONT IS OFFSHORE SUNDAY WITH DRY WESTERLY FLOW WHICH WILL LEAD TO
SUNSHINE AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS. 850 MB TEMPS BELOW NORMAL AND WILL
LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS SUNDAY.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...
NEXT FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST BUT THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THE SHORTWAVE AND HOW PROGRESSIVE THE FRONT
WILL BE. EVEN FASTER GFS IS MAINLY DRY FOR MON SO WE ARE GOING WITH
A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW.  THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS WITH TUE AS
PROGRESSIVE GFS MOVES THE SHOWERS OFFSHORE WHILE MORE AMPLIFIED
ECMWF IS WET.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING.

THROUGH TONIGHT...
MAINLY IFR IN EAST OF AN IJD-ORH-MHT LINE...WITH MVFR WEST. THIS
IS MAINLY DUE TO CIGS THROUGH EVENING...BUT AROUND 23Z AND AFTER
VSBYS MAY BEGIN TO DIP AS WELL IN A MIX OF DRIZZLE/FOG/LIGHT RAIN.
POSSIBILITY OF PERIODIC IFR VSBYS...BUT MAINLY VFR EXPECTED. CIGS
REMAIN LOW...BUT VSBYS LIFT DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS RAIN
BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD AND ALLOWS VSBYS TO LIFT TO MAINLY
MVFR/VFR. WINDS PICK UP NEAR SHORE IN THE EAST...WITH A FEW GUSTS
APPROACHING 20 KT AT COASTAL TERMINALS.

TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT....
MUCH OF THE SAME...MAINLY IFR/MVFR CIGS WITH SOME MVFR CONDITIONS
IN RAIN. EXPECT A VERY SLOW IMPROVEMENT FROM W TO E LATE IN THE
DAY AND OVERNIGHT...BUT THIS WILL BE MAINLY TOWARD RAIN
ENDING...WITH CATEGORIES ONLY REALLY IMPROVING DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS ON THU.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.
ALSO LOW CONFIDENCE OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE IMPROVEMENT IN THE MORNING.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. AREAS OF IFR IN THE MORNING SHOULD
IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON AS CIGS LIFT AND CLOUDS BREAK UP.

FRI...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR AS
SHOWERS MOVE INTO THE REGION. LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING. GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SHIFTING TO WEST SAT
NIGHT.

SUN...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT.

N-NE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
INTO TOMORROW...WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KT AT TIMES POSSIBLE
PARTICULARLY BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE OCEAN WATERS AS WELL AS RI/BI
SOUND FOR THESE WINDS...AND MAY NEED TO BE ADDED FOR THE WATERS
SURROUNDING CAPE COD FOR LATE IN THE DAY TOMORROW.

OTHERWISE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY DUE TO
INCREASING SWELL ALONE...WHICH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO REACH 7-8FT
BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON ON THE OCEAN WATERS. IT/S LIKELY THAT THESE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL NEED TO LINGER INTO THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THU INTO FRI...EXPECT NE WIND GUSTS TO 25-30 KT THU MORNING OVER SE
WATERS WHICH WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THU AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
CONTINUED NE WINDS FRI BUT SPEEDS LESS THAN SCA.  HAZARDOUS SEA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THU INTO FRI OVER OUTER WATERS.

SAT...SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH GUSTS
INCREASING TO 25-30 KT. WINDS SHIFTING TO WEST DURING SAT NIGHT.
HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER OUTER WATERS.  VSBYS MAY BE
REDUCED IN SHOWERS AND FOG.

SUN...WEST WINDS MAY GUST TO 25-30 KT IN POST FRONTAL AIRMASS.
HAZARDOUS SEAS CONTINUE OVER OUTER WATERS.


&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DOODY
NEAR TERM...DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/DOODY
MARINE...KJC/DOODY



000
FXUS61 KOKX 301957
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
357 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH MID WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ON
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY POTENTIALLY ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM DURING
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WHICH MOVED ACROSS THE REGION EARLIER THIS
MORNING WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF THE REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT. AS THIS LOW APPROACHES THE
AREA AND INTERACTS WITH A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE REGION...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AFTER
MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND CONNECTICUT. POPS
WILL INCREASE TO LIKELY ACROSS THESE AREAS. FURTHER WEST...ACROSS
NYC...NJ AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...POPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
AS HIGH...AND WILL LIMIT POPS TO CHANCE. 12Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE PRECIPITATION...HOWEVER THERE
ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES WITH THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.
THE NAM WAS AN OUTLIER WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS COMING CLOSE TO OR
EXCEEDING AN INCH OVERNIGHT ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA.
FOLLOWED MORE OF A GFS/SREF/CMC BLEND WITH GAVE THE EASTERN
SECTIONS AROUND A QUARTER TO HALF INCH.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT OVERCAST SKIES AND AN EASTERLY WIND. TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60. FOLLOWED A MAV/MET
BLEND FOR LOWS.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
RAIN CONTINUES WEDNESDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE
STARTING TO SLOWLY TAPER OFF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVIER RAIN
HOWEVER THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE THIS OCCURS DUE TO
ITS MESOSCALE NATURE. THE 12Z MODELS HINT THAT IF THIS DOES
OCCUR...WITH WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF LONG ISLAND
AND CT.

CLOUDY SKIES AND AN EASTERLY-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OF MARITIME AIR
WILL PERSIST...WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE ON
WEDNESDAY.

POPS CONTINUES TO LOWER OVERNIGHT...BUT LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS
MAY PERSIST OVER EASTERN AREAS...AS UPPER LEVEL LOW CLOSES OFF AND
PUSHES EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NOT MANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED. LGT RAIN CHCS
REMAIN EARLY THU WITH THE BACKDOOR CDFNT...THEN HI PRES IS PROGGED
TO KEEP THE CWA DRY THRU FRI. THE CFP AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL ARE
STILL LINED UP FOR SAT. THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
THIS TIMING. POPS REMAIN LIKELY. TRIMMED BACK POPS FRI NGT AS MOST
OF THE PCPN IS TARGETED FOR SAT. DRY FOR SUN WITH ALL OF THE
MOISTURE SHUNTED OFF INTO ERN CANADA. HIGH TEMPS IN THE 60S STILL ON
TRACK. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST RAIN CHCS FOR THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK WITH THE UPR TROF APPROACHING. KEPT THE TIMING IN THE
GRIDS MAINLY MON-MON NGT CLOSER TO THE MORE CONSISTENT GFS. THE
ECMWF HOWEVER IS TRENDING SLOWER.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL STAY WEST OF THE REGION WITH A GENERAL E-NE
FLOW DURING TAF PERIOD. CONDITIONS VARYING FROM VFR TO MVFR TO
LOCALIZED IFR. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FURTHER IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED
FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. CONDITIONS TREND BACK DOWN TONIGHT WITH
MORE LOW STRATUS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN ACROSS ALL TERMINALS.

RAIN ACTIVITY...MAINLY EAST OF CITY TERMINALS AND GENERALLY
LIGHT...BECOMES MORE STEADY LATER TONIGHT AND MODERATE TO POSSIBLY
HEAVY WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE THE RAIN COULD MOVE AS FAR AS
WEST AS CITY TERMINALS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER WITH THIS SO
EXCLUDED THE MENTION OF RAIN IN TAFS FOR CITY TERMINALS AND NORTH
AND WEST AT THE CURRENT TIME.

FLUCTUATIONS BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR AND IFR AND MVFR ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE. MVFR TIMING COULD BE
OFF BY 1-3 HOURS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE. SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS
TO 20 KT POSSIBLE. MVFR TIMING COULD BE OFF BY 1-3 HOURS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE. MVFR TIMING COULD BE
OFF BY 1-3 HOURS.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE. MVFR TIMING COULD BE
OFF BY 1-3 HOURS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE. IMPROVEMENT FROM IFR
COULD BE OFF BY 1-3 HOURS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE. IMPROVEMENT FROM IFR
COULD BE OFF BY 1-3 HOURS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WED-WED NIGHT...MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN RAIN. E-NE WINDS 10-15
WITH G 20 KT ALONG THE COAST.
.THU...CHC MVFR MAINLY AM. NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.FRI...VFR. SE-S WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.SAT...RAIN LIKELY - MVFR OR LOWER AT TIMES. SE WIND 10-15G20 KT.
.SUN...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
EASTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS THE AREA WATERS REMAINS
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND AN OFFSHORE LOW. THIS WILL
RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON THE
OCEAN WATERS. WINDS WILL GUST TO NEAR 25 KT AND SEAS WILL BUILD TO
4 TO 7 FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS. WILL EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ON THE OCEAN...SCA SEAS LIKELY THU-THU NGT. THEY MAY FALL BLW 5FT BY
FRI...BUT WILL ONCE AGAIN RAMP UP THRU THE WEEKEND.
ELSEWHERE...WINDS WILL BE CLOSE TO SCA LVLS THU...BUT SHOULD REMAIN
BLW FRI. SCA WINDS LIKELY SAT AND SUN. SCA COND POSSIBLE ALL WATERS
AGAIN ON MON AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS NYC...NORTHEAST
NJ...AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. RAINFALL ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND
CONNECTICUT WILL RANGE FROM A QUARTER OF AN INCH TO NEAR 1 INCH OF
RAIN ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF LONG ISLAND AND CT. RIGHT
NOW...NO FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED.

A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF RAIN POSSIBLE THU. AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN
POSSIBLE ON SAT.


&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/JMC
NEAR TERM...BC
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...BC/JMC
HYDROLOGY...BC/JMC







000
FXUS61 KOKX 301957
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
357 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH MID WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ON
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY POTENTIALLY ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM DURING
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WHICH MOVED ACROSS THE REGION EARLIER THIS
MORNING WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF THE REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT. AS THIS LOW APPROACHES THE
AREA AND INTERACTS WITH A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE REGION...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AFTER
MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND CONNECTICUT. POPS
WILL INCREASE TO LIKELY ACROSS THESE AREAS. FURTHER WEST...ACROSS
NYC...NJ AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...POPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
AS HIGH...AND WILL LIMIT POPS TO CHANCE. 12Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE PRECIPITATION...HOWEVER THERE
ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES WITH THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.
THE NAM WAS AN OUTLIER WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS COMING CLOSE TO OR
EXCEEDING AN INCH OVERNIGHT ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA.
FOLLOWED MORE OF A GFS/SREF/CMC BLEND WITH GAVE THE EASTERN
SECTIONS AROUND A QUARTER TO HALF INCH.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT OVERCAST SKIES AND AN EASTERLY WIND. TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60. FOLLOWED A MAV/MET
BLEND FOR LOWS.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
RAIN CONTINUES WEDNESDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE
STARTING TO SLOWLY TAPER OFF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVIER RAIN
HOWEVER THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE THIS OCCURS DUE TO
ITS MESOSCALE NATURE. THE 12Z MODELS HINT THAT IF THIS DOES
OCCUR...WITH WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF LONG ISLAND
AND CT.

CLOUDY SKIES AND AN EASTERLY-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OF MARITIME AIR
WILL PERSIST...WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE ON
WEDNESDAY.

POPS CONTINUES TO LOWER OVERNIGHT...BUT LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS
MAY PERSIST OVER EASTERN AREAS...AS UPPER LEVEL LOW CLOSES OFF AND
PUSHES EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NOT MANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED. LGT RAIN CHCS
REMAIN EARLY THU WITH THE BACKDOOR CDFNT...THEN HI PRES IS PROGGED
TO KEEP THE CWA DRY THRU FRI. THE CFP AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL ARE
STILL LINED UP FOR SAT. THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
THIS TIMING. POPS REMAIN LIKELY. TRIMMED BACK POPS FRI NGT AS MOST
OF THE PCPN IS TARGETED FOR SAT. DRY FOR SUN WITH ALL OF THE
MOISTURE SHUNTED OFF INTO ERN CANADA. HIGH TEMPS IN THE 60S STILL ON
TRACK. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST RAIN CHCS FOR THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK WITH THE UPR TROF APPROACHING. KEPT THE TIMING IN THE
GRIDS MAINLY MON-MON NGT CLOSER TO THE MORE CONSISTENT GFS. THE
ECMWF HOWEVER IS TRENDING SLOWER.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL STAY WEST OF THE REGION WITH A GENERAL E-NE
FLOW DURING TAF PERIOD. CONDITIONS VARYING FROM VFR TO MVFR TO
LOCALIZED IFR. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FURTHER IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED
FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. CONDITIONS TREND BACK DOWN TONIGHT WITH
MORE LOW STRATUS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN ACROSS ALL TERMINALS.

RAIN ACTIVITY...MAINLY EAST OF CITY TERMINALS AND GENERALLY
LIGHT...BECOMES MORE STEADY LATER TONIGHT AND MODERATE TO POSSIBLY
HEAVY WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE THE RAIN COULD MOVE AS FAR AS
WEST AS CITY TERMINALS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER WITH THIS SO
EXCLUDED THE MENTION OF RAIN IN TAFS FOR CITY TERMINALS AND NORTH
AND WEST AT THE CURRENT TIME.

FLUCTUATIONS BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR AND IFR AND MVFR ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE. MVFR TIMING COULD BE
OFF BY 1-3 HOURS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE. SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS
TO 20 KT POSSIBLE. MVFR TIMING COULD BE OFF BY 1-3 HOURS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE. MVFR TIMING COULD BE
OFF BY 1-3 HOURS.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE. MVFR TIMING COULD BE
OFF BY 1-3 HOURS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE. IMPROVEMENT FROM IFR
COULD BE OFF BY 1-3 HOURS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE. IMPROVEMENT FROM IFR
COULD BE OFF BY 1-3 HOURS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WED-WED NIGHT...MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN RAIN. E-NE WINDS 10-15
WITH G 20 KT ALONG THE COAST.
.THU...CHC MVFR MAINLY AM. NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.FRI...VFR. SE-S WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.SAT...RAIN LIKELY - MVFR OR LOWER AT TIMES. SE WIND 10-15G20 KT.
.SUN...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
EASTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS THE AREA WATERS REMAINS
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND AN OFFSHORE LOW. THIS WILL
RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON THE
OCEAN WATERS. WINDS WILL GUST TO NEAR 25 KT AND SEAS WILL BUILD TO
4 TO 7 FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS. WILL EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ON THE OCEAN...SCA SEAS LIKELY THU-THU NGT. THEY MAY FALL BLW 5FT BY
FRI...BUT WILL ONCE AGAIN RAMP UP THRU THE WEEKEND.
ELSEWHERE...WINDS WILL BE CLOSE TO SCA LVLS THU...BUT SHOULD REMAIN
BLW FRI. SCA WINDS LIKELY SAT AND SUN. SCA COND POSSIBLE ALL WATERS
AGAIN ON MON AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS NYC...NORTHEAST
NJ...AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. RAINFALL ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND
CONNECTICUT WILL RANGE FROM A QUARTER OF AN INCH TO NEAR 1 INCH OF
RAIN ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF LONG ISLAND AND CT. RIGHT
NOW...NO FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED.

A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF RAIN POSSIBLE THU. AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN
POSSIBLE ON SAT.


&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/JMC
NEAR TERM...BC
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...BC/JMC
HYDROLOGY...BC/JMC







000
FXUS61 KOKX 301957
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
357 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH MID WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ON
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY POTENTIALLY ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM DURING
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WHICH MOVED ACROSS THE REGION EARLIER THIS
MORNING WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF THE REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT. AS THIS LOW APPROACHES THE
AREA AND INTERACTS WITH A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE REGION...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AFTER
MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND CONNECTICUT. POPS
WILL INCREASE TO LIKELY ACROSS THESE AREAS. FURTHER WEST...ACROSS
NYC...NJ AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...POPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
AS HIGH...AND WILL LIMIT POPS TO CHANCE. 12Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE PRECIPITATION...HOWEVER THERE
ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES WITH THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.
THE NAM WAS AN OUTLIER WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS COMING CLOSE TO OR
EXCEEDING AN INCH OVERNIGHT ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA.
FOLLOWED MORE OF A GFS/SREF/CMC BLEND WITH GAVE THE EASTERN
SECTIONS AROUND A QUARTER TO HALF INCH.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT OVERCAST SKIES AND AN EASTERLY WIND. TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60. FOLLOWED A MAV/MET
BLEND FOR LOWS.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
RAIN CONTINUES WEDNESDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE
STARTING TO SLOWLY TAPER OFF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVIER RAIN
HOWEVER THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE THIS OCCURS DUE TO
ITS MESOSCALE NATURE. THE 12Z MODELS HINT THAT IF THIS DOES
OCCUR...WITH WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF LONG ISLAND
AND CT.

CLOUDY SKIES AND AN EASTERLY-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OF MARITIME AIR
WILL PERSIST...WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE ON
WEDNESDAY.

POPS CONTINUES TO LOWER OVERNIGHT...BUT LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS
MAY PERSIST OVER EASTERN AREAS...AS UPPER LEVEL LOW CLOSES OFF AND
PUSHES EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NOT MANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED. LGT RAIN CHCS
REMAIN EARLY THU WITH THE BACKDOOR CDFNT...THEN HI PRES IS PROGGED
TO KEEP THE CWA DRY THRU FRI. THE CFP AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL ARE
STILL LINED UP FOR SAT. THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
THIS TIMING. POPS REMAIN LIKELY. TRIMMED BACK POPS FRI NGT AS MOST
OF THE PCPN IS TARGETED FOR SAT. DRY FOR SUN WITH ALL OF THE
MOISTURE SHUNTED OFF INTO ERN CANADA. HIGH TEMPS IN THE 60S STILL ON
TRACK. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST RAIN CHCS FOR THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK WITH THE UPR TROF APPROACHING. KEPT THE TIMING IN THE
GRIDS MAINLY MON-MON NGT CLOSER TO THE MORE CONSISTENT GFS. THE
ECMWF HOWEVER IS TRENDING SLOWER.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL STAY WEST OF THE REGION WITH A GENERAL E-NE
FLOW DURING TAF PERIOD. CONDITIONS VARYING FROM VFR TO MVFR TO
LOCALIZED IFR. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FURTHER IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED
FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. CONDITIONS TREND BACK DOWN TONIGHT WITH
MORE LOW STRATUS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN ACROSS ALL TERMINALS.

RAIN ACTIVITY...MAINLY EAST OF CITY TERMINALS AND GENERALLY
LIGHT...BECOMES MORE STEADY LATER TONIGHT AND MODERATE TO POSSIBLY
HEAVY WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE THE RAIN COULD MOVE AS FAR AS
WEST AS CITY TERMINALS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER WITH THIS SO
EXCLUDED THE MENTION OF RAIN IN TAFS FOR CITY TERMINALS AND NORTH
AND WEST AT THE CURRENT TIME.

FLUCTUATIONS BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR AND IFR AND MVFR ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE. MVFR TIMING COULD BE
OFF BY 1-3 HOURS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE. SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS
TO 20 KT POSSIBLE. MVFR TIMING COULD BE OFF BY 1-3 HOURS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE. MVFR TIMING COULD BE
OFF BY 1-3 HOURS.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE. MVFR TIMING COULD BE
OFF BY 1-3 HOURS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE. IMPROVEMENT FROM IFR
COULD BE OFF BY 1-3 HOURS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE. IMPROVEMENT FROM IFR
COULD BE OFF BY 1-3 HOURS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WED-WED NIGHT...MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN RAIN. E-NE WINDS 10-15
WITH G 20 KT ALONG THE COAST.
.THU...CHC MVFR MAINLY AM. NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.FRI...VFR. SE-S WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.SAT...RAIN LIKELY - MVFR OR LOWER AT TIMES. SE WIND 10-15G20 KT.
.SUN...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
EASTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS THE AREA WATERS REMAINS
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND AN OFFSHORE LOW. THIS WILL
RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON THE
OCEAN WATERS. WINDS WILL GUST TO NEAR 25 KT AND SEAS WILL BUILD TO
4 TO 7 FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS. WILL EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ON THE OCEAN...SCA SEAS LIKELY THU-THU NGT. THEY MAY FALL BLW 5FT BY
FRI...BUT WILL ONCE AGAIN RAMP UP THRU THE WEEKEND.
ELSEWHERE...WINDS WILL BE CLOSE TO SCA LVLS THU...BUT SHOULD REMAIN
BLW FRI. SCA WINDS LIKELY SAT AND SUN. SCA COND POSSIBLE ALL WATERS
AGAIN ON MON AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS NYC...NORTHEAST
NJ...AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. RAINFALL ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND
CONNECTICUT WILL RANGE FROM A QUARTER OF AN INCH TO NEAR 1 INCH OF
RAIN ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF LONG ISLAND AND CT. RIGHT
NOW...NO FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED.

A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF RAIN POSSIBLE THU. AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN
POSSIBLE ON SAT.


&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/JMC
NEAR TERM...BC
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...BC/JMC
HYDROLOGY...BC/JMC







000
FXUS61 KOKX 301957
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
357 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH MID WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ON
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY POTENTIALLY ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM DURING
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WHICH MOVED ACROSS THE REGION EARLIER THIS
MORNING WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF THE REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT. AS THIS LOW APPROACHES THE
AREA AND INTERACTS WITH A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE REGION...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AFTER
MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND CONNECTICUT. POPS
WILL INCREASE TO LIKELY ACROSS THESE AREAS. FURTHER WEST...ACROSS
NYC...NJ AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...POPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
AS HIGH...AND WILL LIMIT POPS TO CHANCE. 12Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE PRECIPITATION...HOWEVER THERE
ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES WITH THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.
THE NAM WAS AN OUTLIER WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS COMING CLOSE TO OR
EXCEEDING AN INCH OVERNIGHT ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA.
FOLLOWED MORE OF A GFS/SREF/CMC BLEND WITH GAVE THE EASTERN
SECTIONS AROUND A QUARTER TO HALF INCH.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT OVERCAST SKIES AND AN EASTERLY WIND. TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60. FOLLOWED A MAV/MET
BLEND FOR LOWS.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
RAIN CONTINUES WEDNESDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE
STARTING TO SLOWLY TAPER OFF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVIER RAIN
HOWEVER THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE THIS OCCURS DUE TO
ITS MESOSCALE NATURE. THE 12Z MODELS HINT THAT IF THIS DOES
OCCUR...WITH WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF LONG ISLAND
AND CT.

CLOUDY SKIES AND AN EASTERLY-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OF MARITIME AIR
WILL PERSIST...WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE ON
WEDNESDAY.

POPS CONTINUES TO LOWER OVERNIGHT...BUT LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS
MAY PERSIST OVER EASTERN AREAS...AS UPPER LEVEL LOW CLOSES OFF AND
PUSHES EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NOT MANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED. LGT RAIN CHCS
REMAIN EARLY THU WITH THE BACKDOOR CDFNT...THEN HI PRES IS PROGGED
TO KEEP THE CWA DRY THRU FRI. THE CFP AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL ARE
STILL LINED UP FOR SAT. THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
THIS TIMING. POPS REMAIN LIKELY. TRIMMED BACK POPS FRI NGT AS MOST
OF THE PCPN IS TARGETED FOR SAT. DRY FOR SUN WITH ALL OF THE
MOISTURE SHUNTED OFF INTO ERN CANADA. HIGH TEMPS IN THE 60S STILL ON
TRACK. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST RAIN CHCS FOR THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK WITH THE UPR TROF APPROACHING. KEPT THE TIMING IN THE
GRIDS MAINLY MON-MON NGT CLOSER TO THE MORE CONSISTENT GFS. THE
ECMWF HOWEVER IS TRENDING SLOWER.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL STAY WEST OF THE REGION WITH A GENERAL E-NE
FLOW DURING TAF PERIOD. CONDITIONS VARYING FROM VFR TO MVFR TO
LOCALIZED IFR. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FURTHER IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED
FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. CONDITIONS TREND BACK DOWN TONIGHT WITH
MORE LOW STRATUS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN ACROSS ALL TERMINALS.

RAIN ACTIVITY...MAINLY EAST OF CITY TERMINALS AND GENERALLY
LIGHT...BECOMES MORE STEADY LATER TONIGHT AND MODERATE TO POSSIBLY
HEAVY WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE THE RAIN COULD MOVE AS FAR AS
WEST AS CITY TERMINALS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER WITH THIS SO
EXCLUDED THE MENTION OF RAIN IN TAFS FOR CITY TERMINALS AND NORTH
AND WEST AT THE CURRENT TIME.

FLUCTUATIONS BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR AND IFR AND MVFR ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE. MVFR TIMING COULD BE
OFF BY 1-3 HOURS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE. SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS
TO 20 KT POSSIBLE. MVFR TIMING COULD BE OFF BY 1-3 HOURS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE. MVFR TIMING COULD BE
OFF BY 1-3 HOURS.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE. MVFR TIMING COULD BE
OFF BY 1-3 HOURS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE. IMPROVEMENT FROM IFR
COULD BE OFF BY 1-3 HOURS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE. IMPROVEMENT FROM IFR
COULD BE OFF BY 1-3 HOURS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WED-WED NIGHT...MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN RAIN. E-NE WINDS 10-15
WITH G 20 KT ALONG THE COAST.
.THU...CHC MVFR MAINLY AM. NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.FRI...VFR. SE-S WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.SAT...RAIN LIKELY - MVFR OR LOWER AT TIMES. SE WIND 10-15G20 KT.
.SUN...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
EASTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS THE AREA WATERS REMAINS
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND AN OFFSHORE LOW. THIS WILL
RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON THE
OCEAN WATERS. WINDS WILL GUST TO NEAR 25 KT AND SEAS WILL BUILD TO
4 TO 7 FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS. WILL EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ON THE OCEAN...SCA SEAS LIKELY THU-THU NGT. THEY MAY FALL BLW 5FT BY
FRI...BUT WILL ONCE AGAIN RAMP UP THRU THE WEEKEND.
ELSEWHERE...WINDS WILL BE CLOSE TO SCA LVLS THU...BUT SHOULD REMAIN
BLW FRI. SCA WINDS LIKELY SAT AND SUN. SCA COND POSSIBLE ALL WATERS
AGAIN ON MON AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS NYC...NORTHEAST
NJ...AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. RAINFALL ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND
CONNECTICUT WILL RANGE FROM A QUARTER OF AN INCH TO NEAR 1 INCH OF
RAIN ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF LONG ISLAND AND CT. RIGHT
NOW...NO FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED.

A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF RAIN POSSIBLE THU. AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN
POSSIBLE ON SAT.


&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/JMC
NEAR TERM...BC
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...BC/JMC
HYDROLOGY...BC/JMC







000
FXUS61 KALY 301811
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
211 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PASSING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY INTO TOMORROW.  TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK...BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 150 PM EDT...EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE DOESN`T FEATURE MUCH IN
THE WAY OF ANY SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGE FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. JUST BATTLING THE PLACEMENT OF THE
LOWER CLOUDS THANKS TO THE BACKDOOR FRONT WHICH IS WASHING OUT
OVER THE AREA. CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO ERODE, ALBEIT SLOWLY. WHERE
THE SUN HAS BEEN OUT, TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY AROUND 70F. MADE
SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE AFTERNOON HIGHS -- BASICALLY A SLIGHT
LOWERING IN THE CLOUDY AREAS (PITTSFIELD & GLENS FALLS -- I`M
CALLING YOU GUYS OUT) AND A SLIGHT INCREASE AT SOME OF THE MORE
SUNNIER LOCATIONS.

ON THE SHOWER CHANCE PERSPECTIVE THE NEXT 6 HOURS, RELIED MORE ON
THE MESO-MODELS -- SUCH AS THE RAP, HRRR AND LOCALLY RUN WRF
MODELS UP HERE AT NWS BURLINGTON. ALL INDICATE SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA
ACROSS CENTRAL NY UP TO THE WESTERN PART OF THE ADIRONDACKS. LATEST
ANALYSIS DOES INDICATE WEAK INSTABILITY (LI VALUE NEAR 0 AND CAPE
200-400 J/KG) IN THOSE AREAS. THUS HAVE SOME 15-25% POPS FOR THE
FAR WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA TO ACCOUNT FOR EXPECTED ACTIVITY.
MESO-MODELS ALSO HINTING AT A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE
GREEN MOUNTAINS OF VERMONT AND MOVING WESTWARD THIS EVENING INTO
AREAS JUST NORTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. AT THIS POINT AM
DISCOUNTING THAT DUE TO LACK OF INSTABILITY.

FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT, THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA. AS IT MOVES CLOSER TO THE COAST IT APPEARS (ACCORDING TO 12Z
GUIDANCE SUITE) THAT IT WILL INTERACT WITH THE DEEPER ATLANTIC
MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND RESULT IN THE
REDEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION. WITH AN OVERALL EASTERLY FLOW IN
PLACE, THIS MEANS SOME OF THAT WILL ADVECT WESTWARD ACROSS
LITCHFIELD COUNTY CT AND INTO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. HAVE THUS
PAINTED IN AN INCREASING TREND OF POPS LATER TONIGHT IN THOSE AREAS.


&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER
OVER THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT AND TOWARDS NJ AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FOR
WEDNESDAY. THE PROXIMITY OF THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
PLENTY OF CLOUDS...AND A LINGERING THREAT FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING A SHOWER WILL BE ACROSS
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA...CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. MIN
TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S TO
NEAR 70 ON WEDNESDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY START TO PULL AWAY TO THE EAST
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE CLOUDS TO
GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST. THERE MAY BE A LINGERING
SHOWER OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...OTHERWISE IT
SHOULD BE RAIN FREE ACROSS THE REGION. LOWS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S...AND HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST AND THE APPROACHING /AND AMPLIFYING/ TROUGH OVER
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.  DESPITE THE TRANQUIL WEATHER
EXPECTED...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY GET TRAPPED BELOW THE INVERSION TO
KEEP MORE CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST.

THE UPSTREAM DEEPENING TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH
FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING.  COMBINATION OF A
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT ORIGINATING FROM
THE GULF COULD PROVIDE THE REGION WITH SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN.  PER
THE ENSEMBLES...QPF/S BETWEEN 0.50-1.00" ARE EXPECTED.  WHILE NO
FLOODING IS EXPECTED...THIS WILL BE MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL AS PORTIONS
OF THE CATSKILLS...HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...TACONICS AND SOUTHERN
LITCHFIELD COUNTY ARE IN `D0` PER THE DROUGHT MONITOR /ABNORMALLY
DRY/.  WE WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD FRIDAY
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

FROPA IS EXPECTED DURING SATURDAY MORNING WITH BRISK AND COOLER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.  IN FACT...THE DEGREE OF COLDER
AIR ADVECTING IN WILL ACTIVATE LAKE ONTARIO CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.  PER
TRAJECTORIES...THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS WILL BE
ACROSS THE DACKS.  THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN BROAD ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION EXTENDING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL KEEP
OUR PATTERN COOL AND UNSETTLED.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL WITH
PRECIPITATION NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...COMBINATION OF VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS
(DUE TO THE LOW CLOUDS/CEILINGS). SOME IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED THE
NEXT FEW HOURS, BUT WITH SUNSET EXPECT THE LOWER CLOUDS ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO BEGIN TO EXPAND WESTWARD AND FILLING IN
THROUGH THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. ANTICIPATE MVFR, IF NOT IFR,
CEILINGS TO BE COMMON AFTER 06Z. MAY EVEN AGAIN SEE FOG DEVELOPING
SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT. EXPECTING A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AROUND
POU. AT THIS POINT JUST MENTIONED VCSH SINCE TIMING IS UNCERTAIN.
THESE SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND INTO MUCH OF WEDNESDAY AS WELL. COULD
SEE PRECIPITATION AS FAR NORTH AS ALB AND PSF, BUT KEPT THE
MENTION OF SHOWERS OUT AT THIS TIME SINCE THE CHANCES ARE LOW.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. AGAIN, THE IFR CONDITIONS
WILL ONLY SLOWLY IMPROVE TO MVFR AFTER 14/15Z WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY..
18Z WED TO 00Z FRI...MVFR TO LOCAL IFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
00Z FRI TO 12Z SAT...PRIMARILY VFR
12Z SAT ONWARD...MVFR WITH SHOWERS. STRONG/GUSTY SURFACE WINDS AND
LLWS ALSO POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC RELATED ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK.

ANY SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL NOT PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED SATURDAY. THOUGH
RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE HEAVIER -- PERHAPS 3/4" OR SO --- NO
SIGNIFICANT RESPONSES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS POINT ON AREA RIVERS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...NASH
HYDROLOGY...NASH







000
FXUS61 KALY 301811
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
211 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PASSING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY INTO TOMORROW.  TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK...BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 150 PM EDT...EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE DOESN`T FEATURE MUCH IN
THE WAY OF ANY SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGE FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. JUST BATTLING THE PLACEMENT OF THE
LOWER CLOUDS THANKS TO THE BACKDOOR FRONT WHICH IS WASHING OUT
OVER THE AREA. CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO ERODE, ALBEIT SLOWLY. WHERE
THE SUN HAS BEEN OUT, TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY AROUND 70F. MADE
SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE AFTERNOON HIGHS -- BASICALLY A SLIGHT
LOWERING IN THE CLOUDY AREAS (PITTSFIELD & GLENS FALLS -- I`M
CALLING YOU GUYS OUT) AND A SLIGHT INCREASE AT SOME OF THE MORE
SUNNIER LOCATIONS.

ON THE SHOWER CHANCE PERSPECTIVE THE NEXT 6 HOURS, RELIED MORE ON
THE MESO-MODELS -- SUCH AS THE RAP, HRRR AND LOCALLY RUN WRF
MODELS UP HERE AT NWS BURLINGTON. ALL INDICATE SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA
ACROSS CENTRAL NY UP TO THE WESTERN PART OF THE ADIRONDACKS. LATEST
ANALYSIS DOES INDICATE WEAK INSTABILITY (LI VALUE NEAR 0 AND CAPE
200-400 J/KG) IN THOSE AREAS. THUS HAVE SOME 15-25% POPS FOR THE
FAR WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA TO ACCOUNT FOR EXPECTED ACTIVITY.
MESO-MODELS ALSO HINTING AT A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE
GREEN MOUNTAINS OF VERMONT AND MOVING WESTWARD THIS EVENING INTO
AREAS JUST NORTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. AT THIS POINT AM
DISCOUNTING THAT DUE TO LACK OF INSTABILITY.

FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT, THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA. AS IT MOVES CLOSER TO THE COAST IT APPEARS (ACCORDING TO 12Z
GUIDANCE SUITE) THAT IT WILL INTERACT WITH THE DEEPER ATLANTIC
MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND RESULT IN THE
REDEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION. WITH AN OVERALL EASTERLY FLOW IN
PLACE, THIS MEANS SOME OF THAT WILL ADVECT WESTWARD ACROSS
LITCHFIELD COUNTY CT AND INTO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. HAVE THUS
PAINTED IN AN INCREASING TREND OF POPS LATER TONIGHT IN THOSE AREAS.


&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER
OVER THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT AND TOWARDS NJ AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FOR
WEDNESDAY. THE PROXIMITY OF THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
PLENTY OF CLOUDS...AND A LINGERING THREAT FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING A SHOWER WILL BE ACROSS
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA...CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. MIN
TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S TO
NEAR 70 ON WEDNESDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY START TO PULL AWAY TO THE EAST
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE CLOUDS TO
GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST. THERE MAY BE A LINGERING
SHOWER OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...OTHERWISE IT
SHOULD BE RAIN FREE ACROSS THE REGION. LOWS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S...AND HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST AND THE APPROACHING /AND AMPLIFYING/ TROUGH OVER
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.  DESPITE THE TRANQUIL WEATHER
EXPECTED...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY GET TRAPPED BELOW THE INVERSION TO
KEEP MORE CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST.

THE UPSTREAM DEEPENING TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH
FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING.  COMBINATION OF A
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT ORIGINATING FROM
THE GULF COULD PROVIDE THE REGION WITH SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN.  PER
THE ENSEMBLES...QPF/S BETWEEN 0.50-1.00" ARE EXPECTED.  WHILE NO
FLOODING IS EXPECTED...THIS WILL BE MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL AS PORTIONS
OF THE CATSKILLS...HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...TACONICS AND SOUTHERN
LITCHFIELD COUNTY ARE IN `D0` PER THE DROUGHT MONITOR /ABNORMALLY
DRY/.  WE WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD FRIDAY
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

FROPA IS EXPECTED DURING SATURDAY MORNING WITH BRISK AND COOLER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.  IN FACT...THE DEGREE OF COLDER
AIR ADVECTING IN WILL ACTIVATE LAKE ONTARIO CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.  PER
TRAJECTORIES...THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS WILL BE
ACROSS THE DACKS.  THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN BROAD ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION EXTENDING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL KEEP
OUR PATTERN COOL AND UNSETTLED.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL WITH
PRECIPITATION NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...COMBINATION OF VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS
(DUE TO THE LOW CLOUDS/CEILINGS). SOME IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED THE
NEXT FEW HOURS, BUT WITH SUNSET EXPECT THE LOWER CLOUDS ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO BEGIN TO EXPAND WESTWARD AND FILLING IN
THROUGH THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. ANTICIPATE MVFR, IF NOT IFR,
CEILINGS TO BE COMMON AFTER 06Z. MAY EVEN AGAIN SEE FOG DEVELOPING
SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT. EXPECTING A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AROUND
POU. AT THIS POINT JUST MENTIONED VCSH SINCE TIMING IS UNCERTAIN.
THESE SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND INTO MUCH OF WEDNESDAY AS WELL. COULD
SEE PRECIPITATION AS FAR NORTH AS ALB AND PSF, BUT KEPT THE
MENTION OF SHOWERS OUT AT THIS TIME SINCE THE CHANCES ARE LOW.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. AGAIN, THE IFR CONDITIONS
WILL ONLY SLOWLY IMPROVE TO MVFR AFTER 14/15Z WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY..
18Z WED TO 00Z FRI...MVFR TO LOCAL IFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
00Z FRI TO 12Z SAT...PRIMARILY VFR
12Z SAT ONWARD...MVFR WITH SHOWERS. STRONG/GUSTY SURFACE WINDS AND
LLWS ALSO POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC RELATED ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK.

ANY SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL NOT PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED SATURDAY. THOUGH
RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE HEAVIER -- PERHAPS 3/4" OR SO --- NO
SIGNIFICANT RESPONSES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS POINT ON AREA RIVERS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...NASH
HYDROLOGY...NASH








000
FXUS61 KOKX 301802
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
202 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THIS MORNING.
MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL THEN AFFECT THE AREA
THROUGH MID WEEK...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE
NORTH THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH ON
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST MAINLY ON TRACK. TEMPERATURES NOT EXPECTED TO WARM MUCH
MORE TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND CONNECTICUT WHERE
CLOUD COVER AND RAIN ARE BEING OBSERVED.

EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT.

ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK TROUGH
OVER THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE AROUND TONIGHT INTO
WED AS AN UPPER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...THEN MOVES ACROSS
ON WED. THE UPPER LOW WILL INTERACT WITH A DEVELOPING INVERTED
TROUGH EXTENDING NW-WARD FROM OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE ON WED...
WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVIER RAIN OF OVER AN INCH NEAR AND
JUST EAST OF WHERE THIS INTERACTION OCCURS...WHICH IS STILL
UNCERTAIN DUE TO ITS MESOSCALE NATURE. THE 00Z NAM/GFS AND 29/12Z
ECMWF WERE POINTING TOWARD SE CT AND ERN LONG ISLAND...WHILE THE
00Z ECMWF/03Z SREF ARE FARTHER EAST.

CLOUDY SKIES AND AND E-NE FLOW OF MARITIME AIR WILL PERSIST...WITH
TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEG ABOVE AVG TODAY...THEN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVG ON WED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LINGERING CHC FOR PCPN WED EVENING...MAINLY OVER EASTERN AREAS...AS
STRONG UPR LVL SHORTWAVE CLOSES OFF AND PUSHES EAST. 00Z MODEL
SUITE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH RAIN SHOWERS ENDING OVER AREAS WEST
OF NYC BY 06Z...AND THEN EASTERN AREAS BY THURS MORNING. WHILE A
BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOUR IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WED EVENING...THE
TREND WITH THE MODELS HAS TO PUSH IT EAST...MOST LIKELY OCCURRING
OUTSIDE THE CWA. DRY CONDITIONS THEN SETTING UP THRU THURS NIGHT-FRI
WITH SFC HIGH DIPPING SOUTH BETWEEN TWO SFC LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS...AND RIDGING ALOFT.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. SLIGHT DISCREPANCIES WITH 00Z MODELS WITH
GFS THE FASTEST SOLUTION AND ECMWF THE SLOWEST. HOWEVER...IT SHOULD
BE NOTED ALL MODELS ARE NOW TRENDING FASTER FOR THE PROGRESSION.
DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGING...THE MODELS COULD BE
WEAKENING IT TOO QUICKLY AND THUS BRINGING THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
PCPN THROUGH QUICKLY AS WELL. AS SUCH...SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED THE TIMING
OF THE PCPN FRI NIGHT-SAT...BUT DID NOT WANT TO DEVIATE TOO MUCH FROM
PRIOR FORECAST UNTIL A GOOD HANDLE OF THE TREND CAN BE MADE.
CONFIDENCE EXISTS IT WILL RAIN ON SATURDAY...FIGURING OUT THE TIMING
WILL NEED TO BE IRONED OUT IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. DRY WX ON
FRIDAY...THEN BEGAN POPS AFTER 00Z SAT WITH THE PASSING OF A WEAK
SHORTWAVE OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPR LVL LOW. HAVE LIKELY POPS IN BY
12Z SAT MORNING AND THEN TAPER POPS OFF WEST TO EAST SAT NIGHT AS
MAIN FORCING ALOFT SWINGS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST.

SFC HIGH BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT SUNDAY-MONDAY WHILE THE
REGION REMAINS UNDER BROAD TROUGHING. HAVE DRY WX IN FOR SUN-MON
WITH THE NEXT CHC OF PCPN COMING BY MON NIGHT.

NEAR SEASONAL TEMPS IN PLACE THRU SAT. A BRIEF BURST OF CAA BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL SEND TEMPS DOWN A DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR SAT
NIGHT-SUN NIGHT. HOWEVER...RETURN FLOW QUICKLY SETS UP WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN...PUSHING TEMPS BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL STAY WEST OF THE REGION WITH A GENERAL
E-NE FLOW DURING TAF PERIOD. CONDITIONS VARYING FROM VFR TO MVFR
FOR WESTERN TERMINALS TO IFR FOR EASTERN TERMINALS AND KHPN. NOT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF FURTHER IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF
THE DAY. CONDITIONS TREND BACK DOWN LATE TONIGHT WITH MORE LOW
STRATUS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN ACROSS ALL TERMINALS.

RAIN ACTIVITY...MAINLY EAST OF CITY TERMINALS AND GENERALLY
LIGHT...BECOMES MORE STEADY TONIGHT AND MODERATE TO POSSIBLY HEAVY
WEDNESDAY.

FLUCTUATIONS BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR AND IFR AND MVFR ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE. MVFR TIMING COULD BE
OFF BY 1-3 HOURS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE. SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS
TO 20 KT POSSIBLE. MVFR TIMING COULD BE OFF BY 1-3 HOURS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE. MVFR TIMING COULD BE
OFF BY 1-3 HOURS.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE. MVFR TIMING COULD BE
OFF BY 1-3 HOURS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE. IMPROVEMENT FROM IFR
COULD BE OFF BY 1-3 HOURS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE. IMPROVEMENT FROM IFR
COULD BE OFF BY 1-3 HOURS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WED...MVFR LOCALLY IFR CIGS/VSBYS/-SHRA. E-NE WINDS 10-15 WITH G
20 KT ALONG THE COAST.
.THU...CHC MVFR MAINLY AM. NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.FRI...VFR. SE-S WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.SAT...RAIN LIKELY - MVFR OR LOWER IN THE AM. SW WINDS AM BECMG WNW
PM. GUSTS 20-25KT LIKELY LATE.
.SUN...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
INCREASING E-NE FLOW IN THE WAKE OF A BACK DOOR COLD FROPA...AS
THE WATERS BECOME SANDWICHED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
AND DEVELOPING OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE...SHOULD LEAD TO SCA CONDS
TONIGHT INTO WED NIGHT...AND POSSIBLY THU. SCA REMAINS FOR LATE
THIS EVENING THROUGH WED AFTERNOON AS FLOW INCREASES TO 20-25 KT
AND SEAS BUILD TO 3-5 FT BY LATE EVENING...AND TO 4-7 FT ON WED.

GENERALLY EXPECTING SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL NON-OCEAN WATERS
THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND. FOR THE OCEAN WATERS...OCNL GUSTS UP
TO 25 KT WILL BE PSBL WED NIGHT INTO THU...WITH THE WINDS
DIMINISHING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THU. COULD SEE ANOTHER CHC
FOR 25 KT GUSTS RIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT FRI NIGHT-SAT...THEN
SUNDAY WITH CAA OVER THE WATERS. SEAS BUILDING IN RESPONSE TO
INCREASED WINDS MID WEEK...EXPECTING 4-6 FT SEAS THRU THU BEFORE
SUBSIDING WITH THE DIMINISHING WINDS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5-7 FT
FOR THE WEEKEND BEFORE DROPPING TO LESS THAN 5 FT ONCE AGAIN
ON SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN EXPECTED THROUGH TUE NIGHT. A FEW TENTHS OF
AN INCH OF RAINFALL...AND LOCALLY UP TO AN INCH...ARE POSSIBLE
WED-WED NGT...MAINLY SE CT AND ERN LONG ISLAND. BETWEEN ONE HALF
TO ONE INCH OF RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH COLD FROPA
FRI NIGHT-SAT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/SEARS
NEAR TERM...BC/GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...GOODMAN/SEARS
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/SEARS








000
FXUS61 KOKX 301802
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
202 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THIS MORNING.
MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL THEN AFFECT THE AREA
THROUGH MID WEEK...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE
NORTH THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH ON
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST MAINLY ON TRACK. TEMPERATURES NOT EXPECTED TO WARM MUCH
MORE TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND CONNECTICUT WHERE
CLOUD COVER AND RAIN ARE BEING OBSERVED.

EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT.

ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK TROUGH
OVER THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE AROUND TONIGHT INTO
WED AS AN UPPER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...THEN MOVES ACROSS
ON WED. THE UPPER LOW WILL INTERACT WITH A DEVELOPING INVERTED
TROUGH EXTENDING NW-WARD FROM OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE ON WED...
WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVIER RAIN OF OVER AN INCH NEAR AND
JUST EAST OF WHERE THIS INTERACTION OCCURS...WHICH IS STILL
UNCERTAIN DUE TO ITS MESOSCALE NATURE. THE 00Z NAM/GFS AND 29/12Z
ECMWF WERE POINTING TOWARD SE CT AND ERN LONG ISLAND...WHILE THE
00Z ECMWF/03Z SREF ARE FARTHER EAST.

CLOUDY SKIES AND AND E-NE FLOW OF MARITIME AIR WILL PERSIST...WITH
TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEG ABOVE AVG TODAY...THEN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVG ON WED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LINGERING CHC FOR PCPN WED EVENING...MAINLY OVER EASTERN AREAS...AS
STRONG UPR LVL SHORTWAVE CLOSES OFF AND PUSHES EAST. 00Z MODEL
SUITE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH RAIN SHOWERS ENDING OVER AREAS WEST
OF NYC BY 06Z...AND THEN EASTERN AREAS BY THURS MORNING. WHILE A
BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOUR IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WED EVENING...THE
TREND WITH THE MODELS HAS TO PUSH IT EAST...MOST LIKELY OCCURRING
OUTSIDE THE CWA. DRY CONDITIONS THEN SETTING UP THRU THURS NIGHT-FRI
WITH SFC HIGH DIPPING SOUTH BETWEEN TWO SFC LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS...AND RIDGING ALOFT.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. SLIGHT DISCREPANCIES WITH 00Z MODELS WITH
GFS THE FASTEST SOLUTION AND ECMWF THE SLOWEST. HOWEVER...IT SHOULD
BE NOTED ALL MODELS ARE NOW TRENDING FASTER FOR THE PROGRESSION.
DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGING...THE MODELS COULD BE
WEAKENING IT TOO QUICKLY AND THUS BRINGING THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
PCPN THROUGH QUICKLY AS WELL. AS SUCH...SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED THE TIMING
OF THE PCPN FRI NIGHT-SAT...BUT DID NOT WANT TO DEVIATE TOO MUCH FROM
PRIOR FORECAST UNTIL A GOOD HANDLE OF THE TREND CAN BE MADE.
CONFIDENCE EXISTS IT WILL RAIN ON SATURDAY...FIGURING OUT THE TIMING
WILL NEED TO BE IRONED OUT IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. DRY WX ON
FRIDAY...THEN BEGAN POPS AFTER 00Z SAT WITH THE PASSING OF A WEAK
SHORTWAVE OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPR LVL LOW. HAVE LIKELY POPS IN BY
12Z SAT MORNING AND THEN TAPER POPS OFF WEST TO EAST SAT NIGHT AS
MAIN FORCING ALOFT SWINGS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST.

SFC HIGH BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT SUNDAY-MONDAY WHILE THE
REGION REMAINS UNDER BROAD TROUGHING. HAVE DRY WX IN FOR SUN-MON
WITH THE NEXT CHC OF PCPN COMING BY MON NIGHT.

NEAR SEASONAL TEMPS IN PLACE THRU SAT. A BRIEF BURST OF CAA BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL SEND TEMPS DOWN A DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR SAT
NIGHT-SUN NIGHT. HOWEVER...RETURN FLOW QUICKLY SETS UP WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN...PUSHING TEMPS BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL STAY WEST OF THE REGION WITH A GENERAL
E-NE FLOW DURING TAF PERIOD. CONDITIONS VARYING FROM VFR TO MVFR
FOR WESTERN TERMINALS TO IFR FOR EASTERN TERMINALS AND KHPN. NOT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF FURTHER IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF
THE DAY. CONDITIONS TREND BACK DOWN LATE TONIGHT WITH MORE LOW
STRATUS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN ACROSS ALL TERMINALS.

RAIN ACTIVITY...MAINLY EAST OF CITY TERMINALS AND GENERALLY
LIGHT...BECOMES MORE STEADY TONIGHT AND MODERATE TO POSSIBLY HEAVY
WEDNESDAY.

FLUCTUATIONS BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR AND IFR AND MVFR ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE. MVFR TIMING COULD BE
OFF BY 1-3 HOURS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE. SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS
TO 20 KT POSSIBLE. MVFR TIMING COULD BE OFF BY 1-3 HOURS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE. MVFR TIMING COULD BE
OFF BY 1-3 HOURS.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE. MVFR TIMING COULD BE
OFF BY 1-3 HOURS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE. IMPROVEMENT FROM IFR
COULD BE OFF BY 1-3 HOURS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE. IMPROVEMENT FROM IFR
COULD BE OFF BY 1-3 HOURS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WED...MVFR LOCALLY IFR CIGS/VSBYS/-SHRA. E-NE WINDS 10-15 WITH G
20 KT ALONG THE COAST.
.THU...CHC MVFR MAINLY AM. NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.FRI...VFR. SE-S WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.SAT...RAIN LIKELY - MVFR OR LOWER IN THE AM. SW WINDS AM BECMG WNW
PM. GUSTS 20-25KT LIKELY LATE.
.SUN...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
INCREASING E-NE FLOW IN THE WAKE OF A BACK DOOR COLD FROPA...AS
THE WATERS BECOME SANDWICHED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
AND DEVELOPING OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE...SHOULD LEAD TO SCA CONDS
TONIGHT INTO WED NIGHT...AND POSSIBLY THU. SCA REMAINS FOR LATE
THIS EVENING THROUGH WED AFTERNOON AS FLOW INCREASES TO 20-25 KT
AND SEAS BUILD TO 3-5 FT BY LATE EVENING...AND TO 4-7 FT ON WED.

GENERALLY EXPECTING SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL NON-OCEAN WATERS
THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND. FOR THE OCEAN WATERS...OCNL GUSTS UP
TO 25 KT WILL BE PSBL WED NIGHT INTO THU...WITH THE WINDS
DIMINISHING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THU. COULD SEE ANOTHER CHC
FOR 25 KT GUSTS RIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT FRI NIGHT-SAT...THEN
SUNDAY WITH CAA OVER THE WATERS. SEAS BUILDING IN RESPONSE TO
INCREASED WINDS MID WEEK...EXPECTING 4-6 FT SEAS THRU THU BEFORE
SUBSIDING WITH THE DIMINISHING WINDS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5-7 FT
FOR THE WEEKEND BEFORE DROPPING TO LESS THAN 5 FT ONCE AGAIN
ON SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN EXPECTED THROUGH TUE NIGHT. A FEW TENTHS OF
AN INCH OF RAINFALL...AND LOCALLY UP TO AN INCH...ARE POSSIBLE
WED-WED NGT...MAINLY SE CT AND ERN LONG ISLAND. BETWEEN ONE HALF
TO ONE INCH OF RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH COLD FROPA
FRI NIGHT-SAT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/SEARS
NEAR TERM...BC/GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...GOODMAN/SEARS
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/SEARS









000
FXUS61 KBOX 301742
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
142 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK AS
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE. ONE OR TWO WEAK WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE REGION. AN
APPROACHING FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO AFFECT
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
130 PM UPDATE...
MORE OF THE SAME...MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM OFF OF THE GULF OF
MAINE AS A WEAK DEFORMATION AXIS CONTINUES TO SPREAD RAINFALL FROM
CENTRAL CT INTO RI AND E MA. MOST OF THIS RAIN IS
LIGHT...GENERALLY ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OR SO AN HOUR. THIS WILL
LIKELY BE THE CASE MOST OF THE EVENING AS WELL...THANKS TO THE
STRONGER DYNAMICS REMAINING OFFSHORE UNTIL THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ALLOWING FOR AREAS OF
LOW CLOUDS... FOG...AND DRIZZLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER STARTS TO MIX A BIT THOUGH...DRIZZLE SHOULD COME TO
AN END. A FEW STEADIER SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS RHODE ISLAND
AND SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS LATER TODAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE ABOUT
5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...EXPECTING ANOTHER NIGHT MUCH LIKE THE LAST WITH LOW
PRESSURE WELL SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET.  AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS...
FOG...AND DRIZZLE ARE LIKELY ONCE AGAIN WITH VERY MOIST AIR IN THE
LOW LEVELS.  MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS RHODE
ISLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AS THE MID LEVEL LOW PUSHES
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE FAIRLY MILD
THANKS TO THE LOW LEVEL HUMIDITY WITH MOST LOCATIONS REMAINING IN
THE 50S.

WEDNESDAY...BEST SHOT OF SHOWERS AS MID LEVEL LOW MOVES OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THESE WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED MAINLY TO
SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND WHERE THE BEST LIFT
EXISTS.  OTHERWISE...MORE OF THE SAME LOW CLOUDS...DRIZZLE...AND
FOG. OVERCAST SKIES AND WET WEATHER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BIG PICTURE... ALASKA SHORTWAVE DIGS OVER THE WESTERN USA/CANADA AND
KICKS THE ESTABLISHED UPPER TROUGH EAST TO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
BRINGS A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE EASTERN USA WITH BELOW
NORMAL HEIGHTS WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN USA.

EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW...A CLOSED LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT MOVES OFF THROUGH THE MARITIMES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

THE DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY... UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. LINGERING INSTABILITY UNDER THE COLD CORE
SHOULD SUPPORT LINGERING SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT TAPERING OFF
THURSDAY MORNING. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW PLENTY OF MOISTURE BELOW 600
MB THROUGH THURSDAY MIDDAY FOLLOWED BY A DRYING TREND IN THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER ARE EQUIV TO 850 MB
TEMPS OF 2-5C...SUPPORTING MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. MOIST
GROUND AND COOLING TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW PATCHY FOG TO
FORM ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR.

FRIDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OVER NEW ENGLAND. CROSS
SECTIONS OF RH SHOW INCREASING CIRRUS-LEVEL MOISTURE BUT DRY THROUGH
MOST OF THE COLUMN...INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TOWARD EVENING.
OVERALL...EXPECT A FAIR WEATHER DAY WITH LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WIND. TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER WOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN
THE MID AND UPPER 60S. THE EAST FLOW MAY KEEP COOLER TEMPS NEAR THE
EAST MASS COAST.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY... SHORTWAVE DRIVING AROUND THE DEEPENING
EASTERN TROUGH PUSHES A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
FRIDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY. THE SHORTWAVE AND
THE SUPPORTING JET ENERGY SHOW SIGNS OF LIFTING THROUGH EASTERN NY
AND VERMONT...BUT WITH POTENTIAL TO DIRECTLY AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. ANOTHER CONCERN WOULD BE THE DRY PATTERN WE HAVE BEEN IN
FOR SEVERAL WEEKS...THESE PATTERNS TEND TO MAINTAIN THEMSELVES EVEN
WHEN FORECAST DATA SAYS OTHERWISE. AND A DAY 5 FORECAST IS RATHER
FAR OUT TO SHOW GREAT CERTAINTY. WE WILL MAINTAINING CONTINUITY WITH
POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND WITH ADJOINING OFFICES...BUT OUR
ACTUAL CONFIDENCE IS 15-20 PERCENT LOWER.

SUNDAY-MONDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS UP FROM THE SOUTH AND SHOULD
PROVIDE DRY WEATHER MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. THE UPPER TROUGH CENTERED
TO OUR WEST WILL BRING LOWER HEIGHTS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL
MEAN COOLER TEMPS. TEMPERATURES HERE IN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD BE A
LITTLE COOLER THAN NORMAL BUT EXPECT THE COLDEST TEMPS TO REMAIN
WEST OF NEW ENGLAND WITH THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH.

A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE TROUGH ON MONDAY AND SOUTHERLY WINDS
AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL BRING HIGHER MOISTURE AIR OUR
WAY...GENERATING SOME CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SHOWERS. THESE
CLOUDS/SHOWERS SHOULD HOLD UNTIL THE SHORTWAVE GETS
CLOSER...PROBABLY MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING.

THROUGH TONIGHT...
MAINLY IFR IN EAST OF AN IJD-ORH-MHT LINE...WITH MVFR WEST. THIS
IS MAINLY DUE TO CIGS THROUGH EVENING...BUT AROUND 23Z AND AFTER
VSBYS MAY BEGIN TO DIP AS WELL IN A MIX OF DRIZZLE/FOG/LIGHT RAIN.
POSSIBILITY OF PERIODIC IFR VSBYS...BUT MAINLY VFR EXPECTED. CIGS
REMAIN LOW...BUT VSBYS LIFT DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS RAIN
BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD AND ALLOWS VSBYS TO LIFT TO MAINLY
MVFR/VFR. WINDS PICK UP NEAR SHORE IN THE EAST...WITH A FEW GUSTS
APPROACHING 20 KT AT COASTAL TERMINALS.

TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT....
MUCH OF THE SAME...MAINLY IFR/MVFR CIGS WITH SOME MVFR CONDITIONS
IN RAIN. EXPECT A VERY SLOW IMPROVEMENT FROM W TO E LATE IN THE
DAY AND OVERNIGHT...BUT THIS WILL BE MAINLY TOWARD RAIN
ENDING...WITH CATEGORIES ONLY REALLY IMPROVING DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS ON THU.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.
ALSO LOW CONFIDENCE OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE IMPROVEMENT IN THE MORNING.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...CIGS/VSBYS AT MVFR/IFR IN LINGERING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  PATCHY IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY...VFR.

SATURDAY...CONDITIONS DIMINISHING TO MVFR IN SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH.  SOUTH WINDS LEAD THE COLD FRONT...WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO WEST AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH WED.

PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN BUILDING SEAS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.  INCREASED WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE BY 20 PERCENT TO ACCOUNT
FOR A GENERAL LOW BIAS IN THIS TYPE OF SCENARIO. SCA CONTINUES FOR
THE NORTHEASTERN WATERS THROUGH THIS MORNING.  ALSO ISSUED SCA FOR
SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN OUTER WATERS FOR TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NORTHEAST WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH GUSTS NEAR 20
KNOTS. WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTH SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...THEN
SHIFT WEST AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WIND GUSTS 20 TO 25
KNOTS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY. SEAS OF 5 TO 8 FEET LINGER ON THE
EXPOSED WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.  EXPECT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY ON AT LEAST THE EXPOSED WATERS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

MAY EXPERIENCE A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 1.5 FEET DURING MIDWEEK BUT
THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE NOT ALL THAT HIGH.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/RLG
NEAR TERM...DOODY/RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/DOODY
MARINE...WTB/RLG



000
FXUS61 KBOX 301742
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
142 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK AS
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE. ONE OR TWO WEAK WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE REGION. AN
APPROACHING FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO AFFECT
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
130 PM UPDATE...
MORE OF THE SAME...MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM OFF OF THE GULF OF
MAINE AS A WEAK DEFORMATION AXIS CONTINUES TO SPREAD RAINFALL FROM
CENTRAL CT INTO RI AND E MA. MOST OF THIS RAIN IS
LIGHT...GENERALLY ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OR SO AN HOUR. THIS WILL
LIKELY BE THE CASE MOST OF THE EVENING AS WELL...THANKS TO THE
STRONGER DYNAMICS REMAINING OFFSHORE UNTIL THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ALLOWING FOR AREAS OF
LOW CLOUDS... FOG...AND DRIZZLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER STARTS TO MIX A BIT THOUGH...DRIZZLE SHOULD COME TO
AN END. A FEW STEADIER SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS RHODE ISLAND
AND SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS LATER TODAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE ABOUT
5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...EXPECTING ANOTHER NIGHT MUCH LIKE THE LAST WITH LOW
PRESSURE WELL SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET.  AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS...
FOG...AND DRIZZLE ARE LIKELY ONCE AGAIN WITH VERY MOIST AIR IN THE
LOW LEVELS.  MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS RHODE
ISLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AS THE MID LEVEL LOW PUSHES
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE FAIRLY MILD
THANKS TO THE LOW LEVEL HUMIDITY WITH MOST LOCATIONS REMAINING IN
THE 50S.

WEDNESDAY...BEST SHOT OF SHOWERS AS MID LEVEL LOW MOVES OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THESE WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED MAINLY TO
SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND WHERE THE BEST LIFT
EXISTS.  OTHERWISE...MORE OF THE SAME LOW CLOUDS...DRIZZLE...AND
FOG. OVERCAST SKIES AND WET WEATHER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BIG PICTURE... ALASKA SHORTWAVE DIGS OVER THE WESTERN USA/CANADA AND
KICKS THE ESTABLISHED UPPER TROUGH EAST TO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
BRINGS A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE EASTERN USA WITH BELOW
NORMAL HEIGHTS WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN USA.

EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW...A CLOSED LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT MOVES OFF THROUGH THE MARITIMES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

THE DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY... UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. LINGERING INSTABILITY UNDER THE COLD CORE
SHOULD SUPPORT LINGERING SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT TAPERING OFF
THURSDAY MORNING. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW PLENTY OF MOISTURE BELOW 600
MB THROUGH THURSDAY MIDDAY FOLLOWED BY A DRYING TREND IN THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER ARE EQUIV TO 850 MB
TEMPS OF 2-5C...SUPPORTING MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. MOIST
GROUND AND COOLING TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW PATCHY FOG TO
FORM ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR.

FRIDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OVER NEW ENGLAND. CROSS
SECTIONS OF RH SHOW INCREASING CIRRUS-LEVEL MOISTURE BUT DRY THROUGH
MOST OF THE COLUMN...INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TOWARD EVENING.
OVERALL...EXPECT A FAIR WEATHER DAY WITH LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WIND. TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER WOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN
THE MID AND UPPER 60S. THE EAST FLOW MAY KEEP COOLER TEMPS NEAR THE
EAST MASS COAST.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY... SHORTWAVE DRIVING AROUND THE DEEPENING
EASTERN TROUGH PUSHES A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
FRIDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY. THE SHORTWAVE AND
THE SUPPORTING JET ENERGY SHOW SIGNS OF LIFTING THROUGH EASTERN NY
AND VERMONT...BUT WITH POTENTIAL TO DIRECTLY AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. ANOTHER CONCERN WOULD BE THE DRY PATTERN WE HAVE BEEN IN
FOR SEVERAL WEEKS...THESE PATTERNS TEND TO MAINTAIN THEMSELVES EVEN
WHEN FORECAST DATA SAYS OTHERWISE. AND A DAY 5 FORECAST IS RATHER
FAR OUT TO SHOW GREAT CERTAINTY. WE WILL MAINTAINING CONTINUITY WITH
POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND WITH ADJOINING OFFICES...BUT OUR
ACTUAL CONFIDENCE IS 15-20 PERCENT LOWER.

SUNDAY-MONDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS UP FROM THE SOUTH AND SHOULD
PROVIDE DRY WEATHER MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. THE UPPER TROUGH CENTERED
TO OUR WEST WILL BRING LOWER HEIGHTS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL
MEAN COOLER TEMPS. TEMPERATURES HERE IN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD BE A
LITTLE COOLER THAN NORMAL BUT EXPECT THE COLDEST TEMPS TO REMAIN
WEST OF NEW ENGLAND WITH THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH.

A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE TROUGH ON MONDAY AND SOUTHERLY WINDS
AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL BRING HIGHER MOISTURE AIR OUR
WAY...GENERATING SOME CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SHOWERS. THESE
CLOUDS/SHOWERS SHOULD HOLD UNTIL THE SHORTWAVE GETS
CLOSER...PROBABLY MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING.

THROUGH TONIGHT...
MAINLY IFR IN EAST OF AN IJD-ORH-MHT LINE...WITH MVFR WEST. THIS
IS MAINLY DUE TO CIGS THROUGH EVENING...BUT AROUND 23Z AND AFTER
VSBYS MAY BEGIN TO DIP AS WELL IN A MIX OF DRIZZLE/FOG/LIGHT RAIN.
POSSIBILITY OF PERIODIC IFR VSBYS...BUT MAINLY VFR EXPECTED. CIGS
REMAIN LOW...BUT VSBYS LIFT DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS RAIN
BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD AND ALLOWS VSBYS TO LIFT TO MAINLY
MVFR/VFR. WINDS PICK UP NEAR SHORE IN THE EAST...WITH A FEW GUSTS
APPROACHING 20 KT AT COASTAL TERMINALS.

TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT....
MUCH OF THE SAME...MAINLY IFR/MVFR CIGS WITH SOME MVFR CONDITIONS
IN RAIN. EXPECT A VERY SLOW IMPROVEMENT FROM W TO E LATE IN THE
DAY AND OVERNIGHT...BUT THIS WILL BE MAINLY TOWARD RAIN
ENDING...WITH CATEGORIES ONLY REALLY IMPROVING DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS ON THU.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.
ALSO LOW CONFIDENCE OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE IMPROVEMENT IN THE MORNING.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...CIGS/VSBYS AT MVFR/IFR IN LINGERING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  PATCHY IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY...VFR.

SATURDAY...CONDITIONS DIMINISHING TO MVFR IN SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH.  SOUTH WINDS LEAD THE COLD FRONT...WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO WEST AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH WED.

PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN BUILDING SEAS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.  INCREASED WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE BY 20 PERCENT TO ACCOUNT
FOR A GENERAL LOW BIAS IN THIS TYPE OF SCENARIO. SCA CONTINUES FOR
THE NORTHEASTERN WATERS THROUGH THIS MORNING.  ALSO ISSUED SCA FOR
SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN OUTER WATERS FOR TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NORTHEAST WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH GUSTS NEAR 20
KNOTS. WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTH SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...THEN
SHIFT WEST AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WIND GUSTS 20 TO 25
KNOTS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY. SEAS OF 5 TO 8 FEET LINGER ON THE
EXPOSED WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.  EXPECT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY ON AT LEAST THE EXPOSED WATERS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

MAY EXPERIENCE A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 1.5 FEET DURING MIDWEEK BUT
THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE NOT ALL THAT HIGH.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/RLG
NEAR TERM...DOODY/RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/DOODY
MARINE...WTB/RLG




000
FXUS61 KOKX 301457
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1057 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THIS MORNING.
MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL THEN AFFECT THE AREA
THROUGH MID WEEK...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE
NORTH THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH ON
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST UPDATE TO REFLECT COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS EASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE CWA...MAINLY LONG ISLAND AND CT...WHERE CLOUD
COVER AND RAINFALL WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN FORECAST AND
GUIDANCE.

SHORTWAVE WITH ASSOCIATED VORT MAX MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THIS
MORNING...CONTINUING TO TRIGGER LIGHT RAIN WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE OVER
LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT.

THE FLOW TURNED EASTERLY IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT. AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SLOWLY WSW-WARD AND A WEAK
UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS...SHOULD SEE MORE SHOWERS TODAY
ESPECIALLY AS THE COMBO OF DAYTIME SFC HEATING AND MID LEVEL
COOLING VIA THE UPPER TROUGH INCREASES INSTABILITY. NAM SOUNDINGS
SHOW SCAPE OF UP TO 500 J/KG...ENOUGH TO HELP GENERATE SHOWERS BUT
NOT THUNDER WITH THE INSTABILITY CONFINED MOSTLY BELOW THE
FREEZING LEVEL. FCST LIKELY POP MAINLY FOR LONG ISLAND...WITH
CHANCE ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE AROUND TONIGHT INTO
WED AS AN UPPER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...THEN MOVES ACROSS
ON WED. THE UPPER LOW WILL INTERACT WITH A DEVELOPING INVERTED
TROUGH EXTENDING NW-WARD FROM OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE ON WED...
WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVIER RAIN OF OVER AN INCH NEAR AND
JUST EAST OF WHERE THIS INTERACTION OCCURS...WHICH IS STILL
UNCERTAIN DUE TO ITS MESOSCALE NATURE. THE 00Z NAM/GFS AND 29/12Z
ECMWF WERE POINTING TOWARD SE CT AND ERN LONG ISLAND...WHILE THE
00Z ECMWF/03Z SREF ARE FARTHER EAST.

CLOUDY SKIES AND AND E-NE FLOW OF MARITIME AIR WILL PERSIST...WITH
TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEG ABOVE AVG TODAY...THEN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVG ON WED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LINGERING CHC FOR PCPN WED EVENING...MAINLY OVER EASTERN AREAS...AS
STRONG UPR LVL SHORTWAVE CLOSES OFF AND PUSHES EAST. 00Z MODEL
SUITE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH RAIN SHOWERS ENDING OVER AREAS WEST
OF NYC BY 06Z...AND THEN EASTERN AREAS BY THURS MORNING. WHILE A
BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOUR IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WED EVENING...THE
TREND WITH THE MODELS HAS TO PUSH IT EAST...MOST LIKELY OCCURRING
OUTSIDE THE CWA. DRY CONDITIONS THEN SETTING UP THRU THURS NIGHT-FRI
WITH SFC HIGH DIPPING SOUTH BETWEEN TWO SFC LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS...AND RIDGING ALOFT.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. SLIGHT DISCREPANCIES WITH 00Z MODELS WITH
GFS THE FASTEST SOLUTION AND ECMWF THE SLOWEST. HOWEVER...IT SHOULD
BE NOTED ALL MODELS ARE NOW TRENDING FASTER FOR THE PROGRESSION.
DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGING...THE MODELS COULD BE
WEAKENING IT TOO QUICKLY AND THUS BRINGING THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
PCPN THROUGH QUICKLY AS WELL. AS SUCH...SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED THE TIMING
OF THE PCPN FRI NIGHT-SAT...BUT DID NOT WANT TO DEVIATE TOO MUCH FROM
PRIOR FORECAST UNTIL A GOOD HANDLE OF THE TREND CAN BE MADE.
CONFIDENCE EXISTS IT WILL RAIN ON SATURDAY...FIGURING OUT THE TIMING
WILL NEED TO BE IRONED OUT IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. DRY WX ON
FRIDAY...THEN BEGAN POPS AFTER 00Z SAT WITH THE PASSING OF A WEAK
SHORTWAVE OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPR LVL LOW. HAVE LIKELY POPS IN BY
12Z SAT MORNING AND THEN TAPER POPS OFF WEST TO EAST SAT NIGHT AS
MAIN FORCING ALOFT SWINGS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST.

SFC HIGH BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT SUNDAY-MONDAY WHILE THE
REGION REMAINS UNDER BROAD TROUGHING. HAVE DRY WX IN FOR SUN-MON
WITH THE NEXT CHC OF PCPN COMING BY MON NIGHT.

NEAR SEASONAL TEMPS IN PLACE THRU SAT. A BRIEF BURST OF CAA BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL SEND TEMPS DOWN A DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR SAT
NIGHT-SUN NIGHT. HOWEVER...RETURN FLOW QUICKLY SETS UP WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN...PUSHING TEMPS BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH THE REGION AND WILL STAY
WEST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A GENERAL E-NE FLOW
WILL REMAIN WITH CONDITIONS VARYING FROM IFR TO VFR...IMPROVING TO
ALL VFR BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS TREND BACK DOWN LATE
TONIGHT WITH MORE LOW STRATUS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN.

LIGHT RAIN ACROSS KISP AND KGON DISSIPATES BY MID AFTERNOON BEFORE
MORE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVES IN LATE TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY.

UNCERTAINTY MAKES THE FORECAST OF MODERATE CONFIDENCE. FLUCTUATIONS
BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR AND EVEN IFR AND VFR ARE POSSIBLE. ALTHOUGH
THE IFR TO VFR FLUCTUATIONS WILL BE PRIMARILY EAST OF THE CITY
TERMINALS.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE. MVFR TIMING COULD BE
OFF BY 1-3 HOURS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE. SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS
TO 15 KT POSSIBLE. MVFR TIMING COULD BE OFF BY 1-3 HOURS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE. MVFR TIMING COULD BE
OFF BY 1-3 HOURS.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE. MVFR TIMING COULD BE
OFF BY 1-3 HOURS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE. IMPROVEMENT FROM IFR
COULD BE OFF BY 1-3 HOURS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE. IMPROVEMENT FROM IFR
COULD BE OFF BY 1-3 HOURS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WED...MVFR LOCALLY IFR CIGS/VSBYS/-SHRA. E-NE WINDS 10-15 WITH G
20 KT ALONG THE COAST.
.THU...CHC MVFR MAINLY AM. NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.FRI...VFR. SE-S WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.SAT...RAIN LIKELY - MVFR OR LOWER IN THE AM. SW WINDS AM BECMG WNW
PM. GUSTS 20-25KT LIKELY LATE.

&&

.MARINE...
INCREASING E-NE FLOW IN THE WAKE OF A BACK DOOR COLD FROPA...AS
THE WATERS BECOME SANDWICHED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
AND DEVELOPING OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE...SHOULD LEAD TO SCA CONDS
TONIGHT INTO WED NIGHT...AND POSSIBLY THU. SCA REMAINS FOR LATE
THIS EVENING THROUGH WED AFTERNOON AS FLOW INCREASES TO 20-25 KT
AND SEAS BUILD TO 3-5 FT BY LATE EVENING...AND TO 4-7 FT ON WED.

GENERALLY EXPECTING SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL NON-OCEAN WATERS
THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND. FOR THE OCEAN WATERS...OCNL GUSTS UP
TO 25 KT WILL BE PSBL WED NIGHT INTO THU...WITH THE WINDS
DIMINISHING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THU. COULD SEE ANOTHER CHC
FOR 25 KT GUSTS RIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT FRI NIGHT-SAT...THEN
SUNDAY WITH CAA OVER THE WATERS. SEAS BUILDING IN RESPONSE TO
INCREASED WINDS MID WEEK...EXPECTING 4-6 FT SEAS THRU THU BEFORE
SUBSIDING WITH THE DIMINISHING WINDS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5-7 FT
FOR THE WEEKEND BEFORE DROPPING TO LESS THAN 5 FT ONCE AGAIN
ON SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN EXPECTED THROUGH TUE NIGHT. A FEW TENTHS OF
AN INCH OF RAINFALL...AND LOCALLY UP TO AN INCH...ARE POSSIBLE
WED-WED NGT...MAINLY SE CT AND ERN LONG ISLAND. BETWEEN ONE HALF
TO ONE INCH OF RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH COLD FROPA
FRI NIGHT-SAT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/SEARS
NEAR TERM...BC/GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...JM/TONGUE
MARINE...GOODMAN/SEARS
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/SEARS









000
FXUS61 KOKX 301457
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1057 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THIS MORNING.
MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL THEN AFFECT THE AREA
THROUGH MID WEEK...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE
NORTH THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH ON
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST UPDATE TO REFLECT COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS EASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE CWA...MAINLY LONG ISLAND AND CT...WHERE CLOUD
COVER AND RAINFALL WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN FORECAST AND
GUIDANCE.

SHORTWAVE WITH ASSOCIATED VORT MAX MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THIS
MORNING...CONTINUING TO TRIGGER LIGHT RAIN WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE OVER
LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT.

THE FLOW TURNED EASTERLY IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT. AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SLOWLY WSW-WARD AND A WEAK
UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS...SHOULD SEE MORE SHOWERS TODAY
ESPECIALLY AS THE COMBO OF DAYTIME SFC HEATING AND MID LEVEL
COOLING VIA THE UPPER TROUGH INCREASES INSTABILITY. NAM SOUNDINGS
SHOW SCAPE OF UP TO 500 J/KG...ENOUGH TO HELP GENERATE SHOWERS BUT
NOT THUNDER WITH THE INSTABILITY CONFINED MOSTLY BELOW THE
FREEZING LEVEL. FCST LIKELY POP MAINLY FOR LONG ISLAND...WITH
CHANCE ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE AROUND TONIGHT INTO
WED AS AN UPPER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...THEN MOVES ACROSS
ON WED. THE UPPER LOW WILL INTERACT WITH A DEVELOPING INVERTED
TROUGH EXTENDING NW-WARD FROM OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE ON WED...
WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVIER RAIN OF OVER AN INCH NEAR AND
JUST EAST OF WHERE THIS INTERACTION OCCURS...WHICH IS STILL
UNCERTAIN DUE TO ITS MESOSCALE NATURE. THE 00Z NAM/GFS AND 29/12Z
ECMWF WERE POINTING TOWARD SE CT AND ERN LONG ISLAND...WHILE THE
00Z ECMWF/03Z SREF ARE FARTHER EAST.

CLOUDY SKIES AND AND E-NE FLOW OF MARITIME AIR WILL PERSIST...WITH
TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEG ABOVE AVG TODAY...THEN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVG ON WED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LINGERING CHC FOR PCPN WED EVENING...MAINLY OVER EASTERN AREAS...AS
STRONG UPR LVL SHORTWAVE CLOSES OFF AND PUSHES EAST. 00Z MODEL
SUITE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH RAIN SHOWERS ENDING OVER AREAS WEST
OF NYC BY 06Z...AND THEN EASTERN AREAS BY THURS MORNING. WHILE A
BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOUR IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WED EVENING...THE
TREND WITH THE MODELS HAS TO PUSH IT EAST...MOST LIKELY OCCURRING
OUTSIDE THE CWA. DRY CONDITIONS THEN SETTING UP THRU THURS NIGHT-FRI
WITH SFC HIGH DIPPING SOUTH BETWEEN TWO SFC LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS...AND RIDGING ALOFT.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. SLIGHT DISCREPANCIES WITH 00Z MODELS WITH
GFS THE FASTEST SOLUTION AND ECMWF THE SLOWEST. HOWEVER...IT SHOULD
BE NOTED ALL MODELS ARE NOW TRENDING FASTER FOR THE PROGRESSION.
DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGING...THE MODELS COULD BE
WEAKENING IT TOO QUICKLY AND THUS BRINGING THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
PCPN THROUGH QUICKLY AS WELL. AS SUCH...SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED THE TIMING
OF THE PCPN FRI NIGHT-SAT...BUT DID NOT WANT TO DEVIATE TOO MUCH FROM
PRIOR FORECAST UNTIL A GOOD HANDLE OF THE TREND CAN BE MADE.
CONFIDENCE EXISTS IT WILL RAIN ON SATURDAY...FIGURING OUT THE TIMING
WILL NEED TO BE IRONED OUT IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. DRY WX ON
FRIDAY...THEN BEGAN POPS AFTER 00Z SAT WITH THE PASSING OF A WEAK
SHORTWAVE OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPR LVL LOW. HAVE LIKELY POPS IN BY
12Z SAT MORNING AND THEN TAPER POPS OFF WEST TO EAST SAT NIGHT AS
MAIN FORCING ALOFT SWINGS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST.

SFC HIGH BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT SUNDAY-MONDAY WHILE THE
REGION REMAINS UNDER BROAD TROUGHING. HAVE DRY WX IN FOR SUN-MON
WITH THE NEXT CHC OF PCPN COMING BY MON NIGHT.

NEAR SEASONAL TEMPS IN PLACE THRU SAT. A BRIEF BURST OF CAA BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL SEND TEMPS DOWN A DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR SAT
NIGHT-SUN NIGHT. HOWEVER...RETURN FLOW QUICKLY SETS UP WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN...PUSHING TEMPS BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH THE REGION AND WILL STAY
WEST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A GENERAL E-NE FLOW
WILL REMAIN WITH CONDITIONS VARYING FROM IFR TO VFR...IMPROVING TO
ALL VFR BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS TREND BACK DOWN LATE
TONIGHT WITH MORE LOW STRATUS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN.

LIGHT RAIN ACROSS KISP AND KGON DISSIPATES BY MID AFTERNOON BEFORE
MORE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVES IN LATE TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY.

UNCERTAINTY MAKES THE FORECAST OF MODERATE CONFIDENCE. FLUCTUATIONS
BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR AND EVEN IFR AND VFR ARE POSSIBLE. ALTHOUGH
THE IFR TO VFR FLUCTUATIONS WILL BE PRIMARILY EAST OF THE CITY
TERMINALS.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE. MVFR TIMING COULD BE
OFF BY 1-3 HOURS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE. SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS
TO 15 KT POSSIBLE. MVFR TIMING COULD BE OFF BY 1-3 HOURS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE. MVFR TIMING COULD BE
OFF BY 1-3 HOURS.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE. MVFR TIMING COULD BE
OFF BY 1-3 HOURS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE. IMPROVEMENT FROM IFR
COULD BE OFF BY 1-3 HOURS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE. IMPROVEMENT FROM IFR
COULD BE OFF BY 1-3 HOURS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WED...MVFR LOCALLY IFR CIGS/VSBYS/-SHRA. E-NE WINDS 10-15 WITH G
20 KT ALONG THE COAST.
.THU...CHC MVFR MAINLY AM. NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.FRI...VFR. SE-S WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.SAT...RAIN LIKELY - MVFR OR LOWER IN THE AM. SW WINDS AM BECMG WNW
PM. GUSTS 20-25KT LIKELY LATE.

&&

.MARINE...
INCREASING E-NE FLOW IN THE WAKE OF A BACK DOOR COLD FROPA...AS
THE WATERS BECOME SANDWICHED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
AND DEVELOPING OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE...SHOULD LEAD TO SCA CONDS
TONIGHT INTO WED NIGHT...AND POSSIBLY THU. SCA REMAINS FOR LATE
THIS EVENING THROUGH WED AFTERNOON AS FLOW INCREASES TO 20-25 KT
AND SEAS BUILD TO 3-5 FT BY LATE EVENING...AND TO 4-7 FT ON WED.

GENERALLY EXPECTING SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL NON-OCEAN WATERS
THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND. FOR THE OCEAN WATERS...OCNL GUSTS UP
TO 25 KT WILL BE PSBL WED NIGHT INTO THU...WITH THE WINDS
DIMINISHING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THU. COULD SEE ANOTHER CHC
FOR 25 KT GUSTS RIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT FRI NIGHT-SAT...THEN
SUNDAY WITH CAA OVER THE WATERS. SEAS BUILDING IN RESPONSE TO
INCREASED WINDS MID WEEK...EXPECTING 4-6 FT SEAS THRU THU BEFORE
SUBSIDING WITH THE DIMINISHING WINDS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5-7 FT
FOR THE WEEKEND BEFORE DROPPING TO LESS THAN 5 FT ONCE AGAIN
ON SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN EXPECTED THROUGH TUE NIGHT. A FEW TENTHS OF
AN INCH OF RAINFALL...AND LOCALLY UP TO AN INCH...ARE POSSIBLE
WED-WED NGT...MAINLY SE CT AND ERN LONG ISLAND. BETWEEN ONE HALF
TO ONE INCH OF RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH COLD FROPA
FRI NIGHT-SAT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/SEARS
NEAR TERM...BC/GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...JM/TONGUE
MARINE...GOODMAN/SEARS
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/SEARS









000
FXUS61 KOKX 301457
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1057 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THIS MORNING.
MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL THEN AFFECT THE AREA
THROUGH MID WEEK...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE
NORTH THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH ON
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST UPDATE TO REFLECT COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS EASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE CWA...MAINLY LONG ISLAND AND CT...WHERE CLOUD
COVER AND RAINFALL WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN FORECAST AND
GUIDANCE.

SHORTWAVE WITH ASSOCIATED VORT MAX MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THIS
MORNING...CONTINUING TO TRIGGER LIGHT RAIN WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE OVER
LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT.

THE FLOW TURNED EASTERLY IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT. AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SLOWLY WSW-WARD AND A WEAK
UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS...SHOULD SEE MORE SHOWERS TODAY
ESPECIALLY AS THE COMBO OF DAYTIME SFC HEATING AND MID LEVEL
COOLING VIA THE UPPER TROUGH INCREASES INSTABILITY. NAM SOUNDINGS
SHOW SCAPE OF UP TO 500 J/KG...ENOUGH TO HELP GENERATE SHOWERS BUT
NOT THUNDER WITH THE INSTABILITY CONFINED MOSTLY BELOW THE
FREEZING LEVEL. FCST LIKELY POP MAINLY FOR LONG ISLAND...WITH
CHANCE ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE AROUND TONIGHT INTO
WED AS AN UPPER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...THEN MOVES ACROSS
ON WED. THE UPPER LOW WILL INTERACT WITH A DEVELOPING INVERTED
TROUGH EXTENDING NW-WARD FROM OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE ON WED...
WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVIER RAIN OF OVER AN INCH NEAR AND
JUST EAST OF WHERE THIS INTERACTION OCCURS...WHICH IS STILL
UNCERTAIN DUE TO ITS MESOSCALE NATURE. THE 00Z NAM/GFS AND 29/12Z
ECMWF WERE POINTING TOWARD SE CT AND ERN LONG ISLAND...WHILE THE
00Z ECMWF/03Z SREF ARE FARTHER EAST.

CLOUDY SKIES AND AND E-NE FLOW OF MARITIME AIR WILL PERSIST...WITH
TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEG ABOVE AVG TODAY...THEN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVG ON WED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LINGERING CHC FOR PCPN WED EVENING...MAINLY OVER EASTERN AREAS...AS
STRONG UPR LVL SHORTWAVE CLOSES OFF AND PUSHES EAST. 00Z MODEL
SUITE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH RAIN SHOWERS ENDING OVER AREAS WEST
OF NYC BY 06Z...AND THEN EASTERN AREAS BY THURS MORNING. WHILE A
BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOUR IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WED EVENING...THE
TREND WITH THE MODELS HAS TO PUSH IT EAST...MOST LIKELY OCCURRING
OUTSIDE THE CWA. DRY CONDITIONS THEN SETTING UP THRU THURS NIGHT-FRI
WITH SFC HIGH DIPPING SOUTH BETWEEN TWO SFC LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS...AND RIDGING ALOFT.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. SLIGHT DISCREPANCIES WITH 00Z MODELS WITH
GFS THE FASTEST SOLUTION AND ECMWF THE SLOWEST. HOWEVER...IT SHOULD
BE NOTED ALL MODELS ARE NOW TRENDING FASTER FOR THE PROGRESSION.
DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGING...THE MODELS COULD BE
WEAKENING IT TOO QUICKLY AND THUS BRINGING THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
PCPN THROUGH QUICKLY AS WELL. AS SUCH...SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED THE TIMING
OF THE PCPN FRI NIGHT-SAT...BUT DID NOT WANT TO DEVIATE TOO MUCH FROM
PRIOR FORECAST UNTIL A GOOD HANDLE OF THE TREND CAN BE MADE.
CONFIDENCE EXISTS IT WILL RAIN ON SATURDAY...FIGURING OUT THE TIMING
WILL NEED TO BE IRONED OUT IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. DRY WX ON
FRIDAY...THEN BEGAN POPS AFTER 00Z SAT WITH THE PASSING OF A WEAK
SHORTWAVE OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPR LVL LOW. HAVE LIKELY POPS IN BY
12Z SAT MORNING AND THEN TAPER POPS OFF WEST TO EAST SAT NIGHT AS
MAIN FORCING ALOFT SWINGS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST.

SFC HIGH BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT SUNDAY-MONDAY WHILE THE
REGION REMAINS UNDER BROAD TROUGHING. HAVE DRY WX IN FOR SUN-MON
WITH THE NEXT CHC OF PCPN COMING BY MON NIGHT.

NEAR SEASONAL TEMPS IN PLACE THRU SAT. A BRIEF BURST OF CAA BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL SEND TEMPS DOWN A DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR SAT
NIGHT-SUN NIGHT. HOWEVER...RETURN FLOW QUICKLY SETS UP WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN...PUSHING TEMPS BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH THE REGION AND WILL STAY
WEST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A GENERAL E-NE FLOW
WILL REMAIN WITH CONDITIONS VARYING FROM IFR TO VFR...IMPROVING TO
ALL VFR BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS TREND BACK DOWN LATE
TONIGHT WITH MORE LOW STRATUS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN.

LIGHT RAIN ACROSS KISP AND KGON DISSIPATES BY MID AFTERNOON BEFORE
MORE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVES IN LATE TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY.

UNCERTAINTY MAKES THE FORECAST OF MODERATE CONFIDENCE. FLUCTUATIONS
BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR AND EVEN IFR AND VFR ARE POSSIBLE. ALTHOUGH
THE IFR TO VFR FLUCTUATIONS WILL BE PRIMARILY EAST OF THE CITY
TERMINALS.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE. MVFR TIMING COULD BE
OFF BY 1-3 HOURS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE. SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS
TO 15 KT POSSIBLE. MVFR TIMING COULD BE OFF BY 1-3 HOURS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE. MVFR TIMING COULD BE
OFF BY 1-3 HOURS.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE. MVFR TIMING COULD BE
OFF BY 1-3 HOURS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE. IMPROVEMENT FROM IFR
COULD BE OFF BY 1-3 HOURS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE. IMPROVEMENT FROM IFR
COULD BE OFF BY 1-3 HOURS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WED...MVFR LOCALLY IFR CIGS/VSBYS/-SHRA. E-NE WINDS 10-15 WITH G
20 KT ALONG THE COAST.
.THU...CHC MVFR MAINLY AM. NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.FRI...VFR. SE-S WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.SAT...RAIN LIKELY - MVFR OR LOWER IN THE AM. SW WINDS AM BECMG WNW
PM. GUSTS 20-25KT LIKELY LATE.

&&

.MARINE...
INCREASING E-NE FLOW IN THE WAKE OF A BACK DOOR COLD FROPA...AS
THE WATERS BECOME SANDWICHED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
AND DEVELOPING OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE...SHOULD LEAD TO SCA CONDS
TONIGHT INTO WED NIGHT...AND POSSIBLY THU. SCA REMAINS FOR LATE
THIS EVENING THROUGH WED AFTERNOON AS FLOW INCREASES TO 20-25 KT
AND SEAS BUILD TO 3-5 FT BY LATE EVENING...AND TO 4-7 FT ON WED.

GENERALLY EXPECTING SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL NON-OCEAN WATERS
THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND. FOR THE OCEAN WATERS...OCNL GUSTS UP
TO 25 KT WILL BE PSBL WED NIGHT INTO THU...WITH THE WINDS
DIMINISHING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THU. COULD SEE ANOTHER CHC
FOR 25 KT GUSTS RIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT FRI NIGHT-SAT...THEN
SUNDAY WITH CAA OVER THE WATERS. SEAS BUILDING IN RESPONSE TO
INCREASED WINDS MID WEEK...EXPECTING 4-6 FT SEAS THRU THU BEFORE
SUBSIDING WITH THE DIMINISHING WINDS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5-7 FT
FOR THE WEEKEND BEFORE DROPPING TO LESS THAN 5 FT ONCE AGAIN
ON SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN EXPECTED THROUGH TUE NIGHT. A FEW TENTHS OF
AN INCH OF RAINFALL...AND LOCALLY UP TO AN INCH...ARE POSSIBLE
WED-WED NGT...MAINLY SE CT AND ERN LONG ISLAND. BETWEEN ONE HALF
TO ONE INCH OF RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH COLD FROPA
FRI NIGHT-SAT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/SEARS
NEAR TERM...BC/GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...JM/TONGUE
MARINE...GOODMAN/SEARS
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/SEARS









000
FXUS61 KOKX 301457
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1057 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THIS MORNING.
MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL THEN AFFECT THE AREA
THROUGH MID WEEK...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE
NORTH THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH ON
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST UPDATE TO REFLECT COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS EASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE CWA...MAINLY LONG ISLAND AND CT...WHERE CLOUD
COVER AND RAINFALL WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN FORECAST AND
GUIDANCE.

SHORTWAVE WITH ASSOCIATED VORT MAX MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THIS
MORNING...CONTINUING TO TRIGGER LIGHT RAIN WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE OVER
LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT.

THE FLOW TURNED EASTERLY IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT. AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SLOWLY WSW-WARD AND A WEAK
UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS...SHOULD SEE MORE SHOWERS TODAY
ESPECIALLY AS THE COMBO OF DAYTIME SFC HEATING AND MID LEVEL
COOLING VIA THE UPPER TROUGH INCREASES INSTABILITY. NAM SOUNDINGS
SHOW SCAPE OF UP TO 500 J/KG...ENOUGH TO HELP GENERATE SHOWERS BUT
NOT THUNDER WITH THE INSTABILITY CONFINED MOSTLY BELOW THE
FREEZING LEVEL. FCST LIKELY POP MAINLY FOR LONG ISLAND...WITH
CHANCE ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE AROUND TONIGHT INTO
WED AS AN UPPER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...THEN MOVES ACROSS
ON WED. THE UPPER LOW WILL INTERACT WITH A DEVELOPING INVERTED
TROUGH EXTENDING NW-WARD FROM OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE ON WED...
WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVIER RAIN OF OVER AN INCH NEAR AND
JUST EAST OF WHERE THIS INTERACTION OCCURS...WHICH IS STILL
UNCERTAIN DUE TO ITS MESOSCALE NATURE. THE 00Z NAM/GFS AND 29/12Z
ECMWF WERE POINTING TOWARD SE CT AND ERN LONG ISLAND...WHILE THE
00Z ECMWF/03Z SREF ARE FARTHER EAST.

CLOUDY SKIES AND AND E-NE FLOW OF MARITIME AIR WILL PERSIST...WITH
TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEG ABOVE AVG TODAY...THEN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVG ON WED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LINGERING CHC FOR PCPN WED EVENING...MAINLY OVER EASTERN AREAS...AS
STRONG UPR LVL SHORTWAVE CLOSES OFF AND PUSHES EAST. 00Z MODEL
SUITE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH RAIN SHOWERS ENDING OVER AREAS WEST
OF NYC BY 06Z...AND THEN EASTERN AREAS BY THURS MORNING. WHILE A
BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOUR IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WED EVENING...THE
TREND WITH THE MODELS HAS TO PUSH IT EAST...MOST LIKELY OCCURRING
OUTSIDE THE CWA. DRY CONDITIONS THEN SETTING UP THRU THURS NIGHT-FRI
WITH SFC HIGH DIPPING SOUTH BETWEEN TWO SFC LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS...AND RIDGING ALOFT.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. SLIGHT DISCREPANCIES WITH 00Z MODELS WITH
GFS THE FASTEST SOLUTION AND ECMWF THE SLOWEST. HOWEVER...IT SHOULD
BE NOTED ALL MODELS ARE NOW TRENDING FASTER FOR THE PROGRESSION.
DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGING...THE MODELS COULD BE
WEAKENING IT TOO QUICKLY AND THUS BRINGING THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
PCPN THROUGH QUICKLY AS WELL. AS SUCH...SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED THE TIMING
OF THE PCPN FRI NIGHT-SAT...BUT DID NOT WANT TO DEVIATE TOO MUCH FROM
PRIOR FORECAST UNTIL A GOOD HANDLE OF THE TREND CAN BE MADE.
CONFIDENCE EXISTS IT WILL RAIN ON SATURDAY...FIGURING OUT THE TIMING
WILL NEED TO BE IRONED OUT IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. DRY WX ON
FRIDAY...THEN BEGAN POPS AFTER 00Z SAT WITH THE PASSING OF A WEAK
SHORTWAVE OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPR LVL LOW. HAVE LIKELY POPS IN BY
12Z SAT MORNING AND THEN TAPER POPS OFF WEST TO EAST SAT NIGHT AS
MAIN FORCING ALOFT SWINGS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST.

SFC HIGH BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT SUNDAY-MONDAY WHILE THE
REGION REMAINS UNDER BROAD TROUGHING. HAVE DRY WX IN FOR SUN-MON
WITH THE NEXT CHC OF PCPN COMING BY MON NIGHT.

NEAR SEASONAL TEMPS IN PLACE THRU SAT. A BRIEF BURST OF CAA BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL SEND TEMPS DOWN A DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR SAT
NIGHT-SUN NIGHT. HOWEVER...RETURN FLOW QUICKLY SETS UP WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN...PUSHING TEMPS BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH THE REGION AND WILL STAY
WEST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A GENERAL E-NE FLOW
WILL REMAIN WITH CONDITIONS VARYING FROM IFR TO VFR...IMPROVING TO
ALL VFR BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS TREND BACK DOWN LATE
TONIGHT WITH MORE LOW STRATUS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN.

LIGHT RAIN ACROSS KISP AND KGON DISSIPATES BY MID AFTERNOON BEFORE
MORE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVES IN LATE TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY.

UNCERTAINTY MAKES THE FORECAST OF MODERATE CONFIDENCE. FLUCTUATIONS
BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR AND EVEN IFR AND VFR ARE POSSIBLE. ALTHOUGH
THE IFR TO VFR FLUCTUATIONS WILL BE PRIMARILY EAST OF THE CITY
TERMINALS.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE. MVFR TIMING COULD BE
OFF BY 1-3 HOURS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE. SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS
TO 15 KT POSSIBLE. MVFR TIMING COULD BE OFF BY 1-3 HOURS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE. MVFR TIMING COULD BE
OFF BY 1-3 HOURS.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE. MVFR TIMING COULD BE
OFF BY 1-3 HOURS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE. IMPROVEMENT FROM IFR
COULD BE OFF BY 1-3 HOURS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE. IMPROVEMENT FROM IFR
COULD BE OFF BY 1-3 HOURS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WED...MVFR LOCALLY IFR CIGS/VSBYS/-SHRA. E-NE WINDS 10-15 WITH G
20 KT ALONG THE COAST.
.THU...CHC MVFR MAINLY AM. NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.FRI...VFR. SE-S WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.SAT...RAIN LIKELY - MVFR OR LOWER IN THE AM. SW WINDS AM BECMG WNW
PM. GUSTS 20-25KT LIKELY LATE.

&&

.MARINE...
INCREASING E-NE FLOW IN THE WAKE OF A BACK DOOR COLD FROPA...AS
THE WATERS BECOME SANDWICHED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
AND DEVELOPING OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE...SHOULD LEAD TO SCA CONDS
TONIGHT INTO WED NIGHT...AND POSSIBLY THU. SCA REMAINS FOR LATE
THIS EVENING THROUGH WED AFTERNOON AS FLOW INCREASES TO 20-25 KT
AND SEAS BUILD TO 3-5 FT BY LATE EVENING...AND TO 4-7 FT ON WED.

GENERALLY EXPECTING SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL NON-OCEAN WATERS
THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND. FOR THE OCEAN WATERS...OCNL GUSTS UP
TO 25 KT WILL BE PSBL WED NIGHT INTO THU...WITH THE WINDS
DIMINISHING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THU. COULD SEE ANOTHER CHC
FOR 25 KT GUSTS RIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT FRI NIGHT-SAT...THEN
SUNDAY WITH CAA OVER THE WATERS. SEAS BUILDING IN RESPONSE TO
INCREASED WINDS MID WEEK...EXPECTING 4-6 FT SEAS THRU THU BEFORE
SUBSIDING WITH THE DIMINISHING WINDS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5-7 FT
FOR THE WEEKEND BEFORE DROPPING TO LESS THAN 5 FT ONCE AGAIN
ON SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN EXPECTED THROUGH TUE NIGHT. A FEW TENTHS OF
AN INCH OF RAINFALL...AND LOCALLY UP TO AN INCH...ARE POSSIBLE
WED-WED NGT...MAINLY SE CT AND ERN LONG ISLAND. BETWEEN ONE HALF
TO ONE INCH OF RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH COLD FROPA
FRI NIGHT-SAT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/SEARS
NEAR TERM...BC/GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...JM/TONGUE
MARINE...GOODMAN/SEARS
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/SEARS









000
FXUS61 KALY 301448
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1048 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PASSING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY INTO TOMORROW.  TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK...BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1035 AM EDT...LATE MORNING UPDATE MAINLY TO TWEAK SKY COVER
BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. LOW CLOUDS BEHIND THE SHALLOW BACKDOOR FRONT
CONTINUE TO FILL IN MUCH OF THE REGION SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
ADIRONDACKS, THOUGH THERE ARE SOME HOLES IN THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY.
12Z ALBANY SOUNDING CLEARLY SHOWED THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UP TO
2500FT, WITH AN INVERSION (AND DRIER AIR) ABOVE THAT. BECAUSE THIS
MOISTURE IS SO LOW LEVEL, A FEW OF THE PEAKS IN THE SOUTHERN
GREENS/BERKSHIRES ARE ACTUALLY STICKING UP ABOVE THE CLOUDS. THE
LOW LEVEL NATURE OF THE MOISTURE ALSO MAKES IT HARD FOR VARIOUS
GUIDANCE (EG MODELS) TO REALLY DEPICT IT VERY WELL. THUS WILL GO
WITH THE "WHERE THE CLOUDS ARE NOW, THAT IS WHERE THEY WILL
PROBABLY BE FOR A FEW HOURS MORE" TYPE OF FORECAST. THE LOWER SUN
ANGLE THIS TIME OF YEAR ALSO MAKES IT TOUGHER TO "BURN" THESE
CLOUDS OFF.

THE CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO MEAN A REDUCTION IN ANY SORT OF AFTERNOON
SHOWER CHANCE. HAVE TRIMMED POPS BACK A BIT, AND PUSHED THE TIMING
A LITTLE BIT LATER (2PM OR SO AND ONWARD). SATELLITE AND RADAR
SHOWS THE SHOWERS (AND ISOLATED T-STORMS) JUST WEST OF BUFFALO AND
INTO OHIO ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW DROPPING SOUTHEAST. LOOKS
LIKE THE BULK OF THE ENERGY OF THE UPPER LOW STAY MOSTLY SOUTH OF
THE AREA. IF WE DO GET ANY SHOWERS, THEY WOULD BE RESTRICTED TO
THE AREAS THAT ARE CURRENTLY SEEING MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE,
WHICH FOR THE MOST PART ARE JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

ONLY OTHER ITEM TO MONITOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL BE THE
TEMPERATURES. HELD STEADY WITH THE FORECAST OF UPPER 60S TO A FEW
LOWER 70S, HOWEVER THOSE PESKY CLOUDS COULD MEAN THINGS FALL A FEW
DEGREES SHORT.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER
OVER THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT AND TOWARDS NJ AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FOR
WEDNESDAY. THE PROXIMITY OF THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
PLENTY OF CLOUDS...AND A LINGERING THREAT FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING A SHOWER WILL BE ACROSS
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA...CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. MIN
TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S TO
NEAR 70 ON WEDNESDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY START TO PULL AWAY TO THE EAST
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE CLOUDS TO
GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST. THERE MAY BE A LINGERING
SHOWER OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...OTHERWISE IT
SHOULD BE RAIN FREE ACROSS THE REGION. LOWS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S...AND HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST AND THE APPROACHING /AND AMPLIFYING/ TROUGH OVER
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.  DESPITE THE TRANQUIL WEATHER
EXPECTED...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY GET TRAPPED BELOW THE INVERSION TO
KEEP MORE CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST.

THE UPSTREAM DEEPENING TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH
FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING.  COMBINATION OF A
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT ORIGINATING FROM
THE GULF COULD PROVIDE THE REGION WITH SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN.  PER
THE ENSEMBLES...QPF/S BETWEEN 0.50-1.00" ARE EXPECTED.  WHILE NO
FLOODING IS EXPECTED...THIS WILL BE MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL AS PORTIONS
OF THE CATSKILLS...HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...TACONICS AND SOUTHERN
LITCHFIELD COUNTY ARE IN `D0` PER THE DROUGHT MONITOR /ABNORMALLY
DRY/.  WE WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD FRIDAY
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

FROPA IS EXPECTED DURING SATURDAY MORNING WITH BRISK AND COOLER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.  IN FACT...THE DEGREE OF COLDER
AIR ADVECTING IN WILL ACTIVATE LAKE ONTARIO CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.  PER
TRAJECTORIES...THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS WILL BE
ACROSS THE DACKS.  THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN BROAD ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION EXTENDING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL KEEP
OUR PATTERN COOL AND UNSETTLED.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL WITH
PRECIPITATION NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COMBINATION OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING
AS BACKDOOR COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY TRACK
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD.  LATER THIS MORNING...THESE CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE
INTO A MORE MVFR THRESHOLDS AND MAY EVEN BREAK TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE MAX DAYTIME HEATING /HENCE THE TEMPO GROUPS/.

CIGS SHOULD REDEVELOP AND/OR CONTINUE INTO MVFR THIS EVENING AND
POSSIBILITY INTO IFR THRESHOLDS.  THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR IFR AT THIS
TIME WILL BE KPSF.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...SHIFTING TO THE EAST OR NORTHEAST
AROUND 5 KT THIS MORNING...THEN EAST-SOUTHEAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC RELATED ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ALLOW FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS FOR TODAY
THROUGH TOMORROW...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
REGION. ANY RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...AND WILL BE
LIMITED IN AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. THESE RAIN SHOWERS WILL
HAVE LITTLE TO NO EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. MANY RIVERS
AND STREAMS ARE RUNNING ON THE LOW SIDE...AND THIS LOOKS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH MOST AREAS EXPECTED TO SEE
AT LEAST A HALF INCH OF RAIN WILL THAT SYSTEM.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS








000
FXUS61 KALY 301448
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1048 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PASSING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY INTO TOMORROW.  TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK...BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1035 AM EDT...LATE MORNING UPDATE MAINLY TO TWEAK SKY COVER
BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. LOW CLOUDS BEHIND THE SHALLOW BACKDOOR FRONT
CONTINUE TO FILL IN MUCH OF THE REGION SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
ADIRONDACKS, THOUGH THERE ARE SOME HOLES IN THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY.
12Z ALBANY SOUNDING CLEARLY SHOWED THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UP TO
2500FT, WITH AN INVERSION (AND DRIER AIR) ABOVE THAT. BECAUSE THIS
MOISTURE IS SO LOW LEVEL, A FEW OF THE PEAKS IN THE SOUTHERN
GREENS/BERKSHIRES ARE ACTUALLY STICKING UP ABOVE THE CLOUDS. THE
LOW LEVEL NATURE OF THE MOISTURE ALSO MAKES IT HARD FOR VARIOUS
GUIDANCE (EG MODELS) TO REALLY DEPICT IT VERY WELL. THUS WILL GO
WITH THE "WHERE THE CLOUDS ARE NOW, THAT IS WHERE THEY WILL
PROBABLY BE FOR A FEW HOURS MORE" TYPE OF FORECAST. THE LOWER SUN
ANGLE THIS TIME OF YEAR ALSO MAKES IT TOUGHER TO "BURN" THESE
CLOUDS OFF.

THE CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO MEAN A REDUCTION IN ANY SORT OF AFTERNOON
SHOWER CHANCE. HAVE TRIMMED POPS BACK A BIT, AND PUSHED THE TIMING
A LITTLE BIT LATER (2PM OR SO AND ONWARD). SATELLITE AND RADAR
SHOWS THE SHOWERS (AND ISOLATED T-STORMS) JUST WEST OF BUFFALO AND
INTO OHIO ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW DROPPING SOUTHEAST. LOOKS
LIKE THE BULK OF THE ENERGY OF THE UPPER LOW STAY MOSTLY SOUTH OF
THE AREA. IF WE DO GET ANY SHOWERS, THEY WOULD BE RESTRICTED TO
THE AREAS THAT ARE CURRENTLY SEEING MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE,
WHICH FOR THE MOST PART ARE JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

ONLY OTHER ITEM TO MONITOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL BE THE
TEMPERATURES. HELD STEADY WITH THE FORECAST OF UPPER 60S TO A FEW
LOWER 70S, HOWEVER THOSE PESKY CLOUDS COULD MEAN THINGS FALL A FEW
DEGREES SHORT.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER
OVER THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT AND TOWARDS NJ AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FOR
WEDNESDAY. THE PROXIMITY OF THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
PLENTY OF CLOUDS...AND A LINGERING THREAT FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING A SHOWER WILL BE ACROSS
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA...CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. MIN
TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S TO
NEAR 70 ON WEDNESDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY START TO PULL AWAY TO THE EAST
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE CLOUDS TO
GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST. THERE MAY BE A LINGERING
SHOWER OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...OTHERWISE IT
SHOULD BE RAIN FREE ACROSS THE REGION. LOWS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S...AND HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST AND THE APPROACHING /AND AMPLIFYING/ TROUGH OVER
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.  DESPITE THE TRANQUIL WEATHER
EXPECTED...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY GET TRAPPED BELOW THE INVERSION TO
KEEP MORE CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST.

THE UPSTREAM DEEPENING TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH
FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING.  COMBINATION OF A
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT ORIGINATING FROM
THE GULF COULD PROVIDE THE REGION WITH SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN.  PER
THE ENSEMBLES...QPF/S BETWEEN 0.50-1.00" ARE EXPECTED.  WHILE NO
FLOODING IS EXPECTED...THIS WILL BE MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL AS PORTIONS
OF THE CATSKILLS...HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...TACONICS AND SOUTHERN
LITCHFIELD COUNTY ARE IN `D0` PER THE DROUGHT MONITOR /ABNORMALLY
DRY/.  WE WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD FRIDAY
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

FROPA IS EXPECTED DURING SATURDAY MORNING WITH BRISK AND COOLER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.  IN FACT...THE DEGREE OF COLDER
AIR ADVECTING IN WILL ACTIVATE LAKE ONTARIO CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.  PER
TRAJECTORIES...THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS WILL BE
ACROSS THE DACKS.  THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN BROAD ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION EXTENDING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL KEEP
OUR PATTERN COOL AND UNSETTLED.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL WITH
PRECIPITATION NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COMBINATION OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING
AS BACKDOOR COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY TRACK
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD.  LATER THIS MORNING...THESE CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE
INTO A MORE MVFR THRESHOLDS AND MAY EVEN BREAK TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE MAX DAYTIME HEATING /HENCE THE TEMPO GROUPS/.

CIGS SHOULD REDEVELOP AND/OR CONTINUE INTO MVFR THIS EVENING AND
POSSIBILITY INTO IFR THRESHOLDS.  THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR IFR AT THIS
TIME WILL BE KPSF.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...SHIFTING TO THE EAST OR NORTHEAST
AROUND 5 KT THIS MORNING...THEN EAST-SOUTHEAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC RELATED ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ALLOW FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS FOR TODAY
THROUGH TOMORROW...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
REGION. ANY RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...AND WILL BE
LIMITED IN AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. THESE RAIN SHOWERS WILL
HAVE LITTLE TO NO EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. MANY RIVERS
AND STREAMS ARE RUNNING ON THE LOW SIDE...AND THIS LOOKS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH MOST AREAS EXPECTED TO SEE
AT LEAST A HALF INCH OF RAIN WILL THAT SYSTEM.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS







000
FXUS61 KBOX 301409
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1009 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK AS
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE. ONE OR TWO WEAK WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE REGION. AN
APPROACHING FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO AFFECT
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE...
BAND OF LIGHT RAINFALL CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS SRN CT THROUGH
RI AND SE MA. THIS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FURTHER SE WITH TIME...AS
OFFSHORE LOW PRES CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND PULLS MOISTURE TO THE
E. HOWEVER...DO SUSPECT A CONTINUATION OF AT LEAST A SHOWERY
THREAT IN THE E THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK INVERTED SHIFTS ONSHORE
AS THE LOW MOVES TO THE SE AND UPPER LVL WEAK CUTOFF CONTINUES TO
PUSH E. THEREFORE...HAVE POPS GENERALLY DIMINISHING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND THEN RISING AGAIN OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...THE ONSHORE
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDS...SOME FOG...AND MAYBE DRIZZLE
WITHIN THE DAMP AIRMASS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ALLOWING FOR AREAS OF
LOW CLOUDS... FOG...AND DRIZZLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER STARTS TO MIX A BIT THOUGH...DRIZZLE SHOULD COME TO
AN END. A FEW STEADIER SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS RHODE ISLAND
AND SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS LATER TODAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE ABOUT
5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...EXPECTING ANOTHER NIGHT MUCH LIKE THE LAST WITH LOW
PRESSURE WELL SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET.  AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS...
FOG...AND DRIZZLE ARE LIKELY ONCE AGAIN WITH VERY MOIST AIR IN THE
LOW LEVELS.  MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS RHODE
ISLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AS THE MID LEVEL LOW PUSHES
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE FAIRLY MILD
THANKS TO THE LOW LEVEL HUMIDITY WITH MOST LOCATIONS REMAINING IN
THE 50S.

WEDNESDAY...BEST SHOT OF SHOWERS AS MID LEVEL LOW MOVES OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THESE WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED MAINLY TO
SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND WHERE THE BEST LIFT
EXISTS.  OTHERWISE...MORE OF THE SAME LOW CLOUDS...DRIZZLE...AND
FOG. OVERCAST SKIES AND WET WEATHER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BIG PICTURE... ALASKA SHORTWAVE DIGS OVER THE WESTERN USA/CANADA AND
KICKS THE ESTABLISHED UPPER TROUGH EAST TO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
BRINGS A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE EASTERN USA WITH BELOW
NORMAL HEIGHTS WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN USA.

EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW...A CLOSED LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT MOVES OFF THROUGH THE MARITIMES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

THE DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY... UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. LINGERING INSTABILITY UNDER THE COLD CORE
SHOULD SUPPORT LINGERING SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT TAPERING OFF
THURSDAY MORNING. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW PLENTY OF MOISTURE BELOW 600
MB THROUGH THURSDAY MIDDAY FOLLOWED BY A DRYING TREND IN THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER ARE EQUIV TO 850 MB
TEMPS OF 2-5C...SUPPORTING MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. MOIST
GROUND AND COOLING TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW PATCHY FOG TO
FORM ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR.

FRIDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OVER NEW ENGLAND. CROSS
SECTIONS OF RH SHOW INCREASING CIRRUS-LEVEL MOISTURE BUT DRY THROUGH
MOST OF THE COLUMN...INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TOWARD EVENING.
OVERALL...EXPECT A FAIR WEATHER DAY WITH LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WIND. TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER WOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN
THE MID AND UPPER 60S. THE EAST FLOW MAY KEEP COOLER TEMPS NEAR THE
EAST MASS COAST.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY... SHORTWAVE DRIVING AROUND THE DEEPENING
EASTERN TROUGH PUSHES A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
FRIDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY. THE SHORTWAVE AND
THE SUPPORTING JET ENERGY SHOW SIGNS OF LIFTING THROUGH EASTERN NY
AND VERMONT...BUT WITH POTENTIAL TO DIRECTLY AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. ANOTHER CONCERN WOULD BE THE DRY PATTERN WE HAVE BEEN IN
FOR SEVERAL WEEKS...THESE PATTERNS TEND TO MAINTAIN THEMSELVES EVEN
WHEN FORECAST DATA SAYS OTHERWISE. AND A DAY 5 FORECAST IS RATHER
FAR OUT TO SHOW GREAT CERTAINTY. WE WILL MAINTAINING CONTINUITY WITH
POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND WITH ADJOINING OFFICES...BUT OUR
ACTUAL CONFIDENCE IS 15-20 PERCENT LOWER.

SUNDAY-MONDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS UP FROM THE SOUTH AND SHOULD
PROVIDE DRY WEATHER MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. THE UPPER TROUGH CENTERED
TO OUR WEST WILL BRING LOWER HEIGHTS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL
MEAN COOLER TEMPS. TEMPERATURES HERE IN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD BE A
LITTLE COOLER THAN NORMAL BUT EXPECT THE COLDEST TEMPS TO REMAIN
WEST OF NEW ENGLAND WITH THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH.

A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE TROUGH ON MONDAY AND SOUTHERLY WINDS
AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL BRING HIGHER MOISTURE AIR OUR
WAY...GENERATING SOME CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SHOWERS. THESE
CLOUDS/SHOWERS SHOULD HOLD UNTIL THE SHORTWAVE GETS
CLOSER...PROBABLY MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING.

TODAY...IFR CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST. SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY ACROSS EASTERN MA/RI WHERE MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

TONIGHT...MORE OF THE SAME WITH IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN LOW
CLOUDS...FOG...AND DRIZZLE.

WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVE ONCE AGAIN AT LEAST TEMPORARILY IN
THE WEST. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY ACROSS EASTERN MA/RI.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...CIGS/VSBYS AT MVFR/IFR IN LINGERING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  PATCHY IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY...VFR.

SATURDAY...CONDITIONS DIMINISHING TO MVFR IN SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH.  SOUTH WINDS LEAD THE COLD FRONT...WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO WEST AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH WED.

PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN BUILDING SEAS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.  INCREASED WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE BY 20 PERCENT TO ACCOUNT
FOR A GENERAL LOW BIAS IN THIS TYPE OF SCENARIO. SCA CONTINUES FOR
THE NORTHEASTERN WATERS THROUGH THIS MORNING.  ALSO ISSUED SCA FOR
SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN OUTER WATERS FOR TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NORTHEAST WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH GUSTS NEAR 20
KNOTS. WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTH SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...THEN
SHIFT WEST AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WIND GUSTS 20 TO 25
KNOTS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY. SEAS OF 5 TO 8 FEET LINGER ON THE
EXPOSED WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.  EXPECT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY ON AT LEAST THE EXPOSED WATERS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

MAY EXPERIENCE A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 1.5 FEET DURING MIDWEEK BUT
THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE NOT ALL THAT HIGH.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/RLG
NEAR TERM...DOODY/RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/RLG
MARINE...WTB/RLG



000
FXUS61 KBOX 301409
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1009 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK AS
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE. ONE OR TWO WEAK WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE REGION. AN
APPROACHING FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO AFFECT
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE...
BAND OF LIGHT RAINFALL CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS SRN CT THROUGH
RI AND SE MA. THIS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FURTHER SE WITH TIME...AS
OFFSHORE LOW PRES CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND PULLS MOISTURE TO THE
E. HOWEVER...DO SUSPECT A CONTINUATION OF AT LEAST A SHOWERY
THREAT IN THE E THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK INVERTED SHIFTS ONSHORE
AS THE LOW MOVES TO THE SE AND UPPER LVL WEAK CUTOFF CONTINUES TO
PUSH E. THEREFORE...HAVE POPS GENERALLY DIMINISHING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND THEN RISING AGAIN OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...THE ONSHORE
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDS...SOME FOG...AND MAYBE DRIZZLE
WITHIN THE DAMP AIRMASS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ALLOWING FOR AREAS OF
LOW CLOUDS... FOG...AND DRIZZLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER STARTS TO MIX A BIT THOUGH...DRIZZLE SHOULD COME TO
AN END. A FEW STEADIER SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS RHODE ISLAND
AND SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS LATER TODAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE ABOUT
5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...EXPECTING ANOTHER NIGHT MUCH LIKE THE LAST WITH LOW
PRESSURE WELL SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET.  AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS...
FOG...AND DRIZZLE ARE LIKELY ONCE AGAIN WITH VERY MOIST AIR IN THE
LOW LEVELS.  MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS RHODE
ISLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AS THE MID LEVEL LOW PUSHES
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE FAIRLY MILD
THANKS TO THE LOW LEVEL HUMIDITY WITH MOST LOCATIONS REMAINING IN
THE 50S.

WEDNESDAY...BEST SHOT OF SHOWERS AS MID LEVEL LOW MOVES OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THESE WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED MAINLY TO
SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND WHERE THE BEST LIFT
EXISTS.  OTHERWISE...MORE OF THE SAME LOW CLOUDS...DRIZZLE...AND
FOG. OVERCAST SKIES AND WET WEATHER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BIG PICTURE... ALASKA SHORTWAVE DIGS OVER THE WESTERN USA/CANADA AND
KICKS THE ESTABLISHED UPPER TROUGH EAST TO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
BRINGS A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE EASTERN USA WITH BELOW
NORMAL HEIGHTS WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN USA.

EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW...A CLOSED LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT MOVES OFF THROUGH THE MARITIMES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

THE DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY... UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. LINGERING INSTABILITY UNDER THE COLD CORE
SHOULD SUPPORT LINGERING SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT TAPERING OFF
THURSDAY MORNING. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW PLENTY OF MOISTURE BELOW 600
MB THROUGH THURSDAY MIDDAY FOLLOWED BY A DRYING TREND IN THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER ARE EQUIV TO 850 MB
TEMPS OF 2-5C...SUPPORTING MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. MOIST
GROUND AND COOLING TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW PATCHY FOG TO
FORM ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR.

FRIDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OVER NEW ENGLAND. CROSS
SECTIONS OF RH SHOW INCREASING CIRRUS-LEVEL MOISTURE BUT DRY THROUGH
MOST OF THE COLUMN...INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TOWARD EVENING.
OVERALL...EXPECT A FAIR WEATHER DAY WITH LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WIND. TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER WOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN
THE MID AND UPPER 60S. THE EAST FLOW MAY KEEP COOLER TEMPS NEAR THE
EAST MASS COAST.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY... SHORTWAVE DRIVING AROUND THE DEEPENING
EASTERN TROUGH PUSHES A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
FRIDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY. THE SHORTWAVE AND
THE SUPPORTING JET ENERGY SHOW SIGNS OF LIFTING THROUGH EASTERN NY
AND VERMONT...BUT WITH POTENTIAL TO DIRECTLY AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. ANOTHER CONCERN WOULD BE THE DRY PATTERN WE HAVE BEEN IN
FOR SEVERAL WEEKS...THESE PATTERNS TEND TO MAINTAIN THEMSELVES EVEN
WHEN FORECAST DATA SAYS OTHERWISE. AND A DAY 5 FORECAST IS RATHER
FAR OUT TO SHOW GREAT CERTAINTY. WE WILL MAINTAINING CONTINUITY WITH
POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND WITH ADJOINING OFFICES...BUT OUR
ACTUAL CONFIDENCE IS 15-20 PERCENT LOWER.

SUNDAY-MONDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS UP FROM THE SOUTH AND SHOULD
PROVIDE DRY WEATHER MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. THE UPPER TROUGH CENTERED
TO OUR WEST WILL BRING LOWER HEIGHTS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL
MEAN COOLER TEMPS. TEMPERATURES HERE IN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD BE A
LITTLE COOLER THAN NORMAL BUT EXPECT THE COLDEST TEMPS TO REMAIN
WEST OF NEW ENGLAND WITH THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH.

A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE TROUGH ON MONDAY AND SOUTHERLY WINDS
AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL BRING HIGHER MOISTURE AIR OUR
WAY...GENERATING SOME CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SHOWERS. THESE
CLOUDS/SHOWERS SHOULD HOLD UNTIL THE SHORTWAVE GETS
CLOSER...PROBABLY MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING.

TODAY...IFR CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST. SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY ACROSS EASTERN MA/RI WHERE MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

TONIGHT...MORE OF THE SAME WITH IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN LOW
CLOUDS...FOG...AND DRIZZLE.

WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVE ONCE AGAIN AT LEAST TEMPORARILY IN
THE WEST. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY ACROSS EASTERN MA/RI.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...CIGS/VSBYS AT MVFR/IFR IN LINGERING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  PATCHY IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY...VFR.

SATURDAY...CONDITIONS DIMINISHING TO MVFR IN SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH.  SOUTH WINDS LEAD THE COLD FRONT...WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO WEST AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH WED.

PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN BUILDING SEAS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.  INCREASED WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE BY 20 PERCENT TO ACCOUNT
FOR A GENERAL LOW BIAS IN THIS TYPE OF SCENARIO. SCA CONTINUES FOR
THE NORTHEASTERN WATERS THROUGH THIS MORNING.  ALSO ISSUED SCA FOR
SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN OUTER WATERS FOR TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NORTHEAST WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH GUSTS NEAR 20
KNOTS. WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTH SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...THEN
SHIFT WEST AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WIND GUSTS 20 TO 25
KNOTS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY. SEAS OF 5 TO 8 FEET LINGER ON THE
EXPOSED WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.  EXPECT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY ON AT LEAST THE EXPOSED WATERS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

MAY EXPERIENCE A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 1.5 FEET DURING MIDWEEK BUT
THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE NOT ALL THAT HIGH.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/RLG
NEAR TERM...DOODY/RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/RLG
MARINE...WTB/RLG




000
FXUS61 KOKX 301132
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
732 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THIS MORNING.
MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL THEN AFFECT THE AREA
THROUGH MID WEEK...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE
NORTH THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH ON
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHORTWAVE WITH ASSOCIATED VORT MAX MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THIS
MORNING...CONTINUING TO TRIGGER LIGHT RAIN WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE OVER
LONG ISLAND...NYC AND SOUTHERN CT. VERY MOIST LOWER LVLS RESULTING
IN AREAS OF FOG....WITH PATCHY DENSE FOG...OVER AREAS OUTSIDE OF NYC
METRO. HAVE ADDED TO FORECAST THROUGH MID MORNING AND ISSUED AN
SPS TO ADDRESS THE SUDDEN VIS CHANGES.

LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS TO E-NE IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT THIS MORNING. AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SLOWLY
WSW-WARD AND A WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS...SHOULD SEE MORE
SHOWERS TODAY ESPECIALLY AS THE COMBO OF DAYTIME SFC HEATING AND
MID LEVEL COOLING VIA THE UPPER TROUGH INCREASES INSTABILITY. NAM
SOUNDINGS SHOW SCAPE OF UP TO 500 J/KG...ENOUGH TO HELP GENERATE
SHOWERS BUT NOT THUNDER WITH THE INSTABILITY CONFINED MOSTLY BELOW
THE FREEZING LEVEL. FCST LIKELY POP MAINLY FOR LONG ISLAND...WITH
CHANCE ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE AROUND TONIGHT INTO
WED AS AN UPPER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...THEN MOVES ACROSS
ON WED. THE UPPER LOW WILL INTERACT WITH A DEVELOPING INVERTED
TROUGH EXTENDING NW-WARD FROM OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE ON WED...
WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVIER RAIN OF OVER AN INCH NEAR AND
JUST EAST OF WHERE THIS INTERACTION OCCURS...WHICH IS STILL
UNCERTAIN DUE TO ITS MESOSCALE NATURE. THE 00Z NAM/GFS AND 29/12Z
ECMWF WERE POINTING TOWARD SE CT AND ERN LONG ISLAND...WHILE THE
00Z ECMWF/03Z SREF ARE FARTHER EAST.

CLOUDY SKIES AND AND E-NE FLOW OF MARITIME AIR WILL PERSIST...WITH
TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEG ABOVE AVG TODAY...THEN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVG ON WED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LINGERING CHC FOR PCPN WED EVENING...MAINLY OVER EASTERN AREAS...AS
STRONG UPR LVL SHORTWAVE CLOSES OFF AND PUSHES EAST. 00Z MODEL
SUITE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH RAIN SHOWERS ENDING OVER AREAS WEST
OF NYC BY 06Z...AND THEN EASTERN AREAS BY THURS MORNING. WHILE A
BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOUR IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WED EVENING...THE
TREND WITH THE MODELS HAS TO PUSH IT EAST...MOST LIKELY OCCURRING
OUTSIDE THE CWA. DRY CONDITIONS THEN SETTING UP THRU THURS NIGHT-FRI
WITH SFC HIGH DIPPING SOUTH BETWEEN TWO SFC LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS...AND RIDGING ALOFT.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. SLIGHT DISCREPANCIES WITH 00Z MODELS WITH
GFS THE FASTEST SOLUTION AND ECMWF THE SLOWEST. HOWEVER...IT SHOULD
BE NOTED ALL MODELS ARE NOW TRENDING FASTER FOR THE PROGRESSION.
DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGING...THE MODELS COULD BE
WEAKENING IT TOO QUICKLY AND THUS BRINGING THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
PCPN THROUGH QUICKLY AS WELL. AS SUCH...SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED THE TIMING
OF THE PCPN FRI NIGHT-SAT...BUT DID NOT WANT TO DEVIATE TOO MUCH FROM
PRIOR FORECAST UNTIL A GOOD HANDLE OF THE TREND CAN BE MADE.
CONFIDENCE EXISTS IT WILL RAIN ON SATURDAY...FIGURING OUT THE TIMING
WILL NEED TO BE IRONED OUT IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. DRY WX ON
FRIDAY...THEN BEGAN POPS AFTER 00Z SAT WITH THE PASSING OF A WEAK
SHORTWAVE OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPR LVL LOW. HAVE LIKELY POPS IN BY
12Z SAT MORNING AND THEN TAPER POPS OFF WEST TO EAST SAT NIGHT AS
MAIN FORCING ALOFT SWINGS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST.

SFC HIGH BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT SUNDAY-MONDAY WHILE THE
REGION REMAINS UNDER BROAD TROUGHING. HAVE DRY WX IN FOR SUN-MON
WITH THE NEXT CHC OF PCPN COMING BY MON NIGHT.

NEAR SEASONAL TEMPS IN PLACE THRU SAT. A BRIEF BURST OF CAA BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL SEND TEMPS DOWN A DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR SAT
NIGHT-SUN NIGHT. HOWEVER...RETURN FLOW QUICKLY SETS UP WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN...PUSHING TEMPS BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS SLIDING SOUTH ACROSS THE NY METRO THIS MORNING.
THE FRONT SAGS SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND.

IFR CIGS ARE LOCATED BEHIND THE FRONT. THESE ARE NOW INTO KLGA AND
KISP AS OF 11Z. EXPECTING SLOW IMPROVEMENT BY MID MORNING FROM EAST
TO WEST...THOUGH UNSURE OF TIMING DETAILS AND RATE OF IMPROVEMENT.

FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT WE`LL BE VFR IN THE AFTERNOON WITH WESTERN
SECTIONS THE LAST TO IMPROVE.

SOME LIGHT RAIN WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE EASTERN SECTIONS
TODAY.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

JFK FCSTER COMMENTS: UNCERTAINTY IN CIG HEIGHT THIS AM WITH IFR
POSSIBLE AROUND 13Z. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN EAST SFC WIND LESS THAN 10
FOR AFTN.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: EXPECT GRADUAL RAISING OF THE CIG THIS
MORNING. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SFC WIND FCST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: UNCERTAINTY IN ARRIVAL TIME OF MVFR CIG THIS
AM.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: UNCERTAINTY IN CIG HEIGHT THIS AM.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: CONFIDENT IN THE IMPROVEMENT THIS
MORNING...THOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF CIG IMPROVEMENT COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.LATE T0NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER CIGS POSSIBLE. CHC -SHRA E-NE WINDS
AROUND 10 KT.
.WED...MVFR LOCALLY IFR CIGS/VSBYS/-SHRA. E-NE WINDS 10-15 WITH G
20 KT ALONG THE COAST.
.THU...CHC MVFR MAINLY AM. NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.FRI...VFR. SE-S WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.SAT...RAIN LIKELY - MVFR OR LOWER IN THE AM. SW WINDS AM BECMG WNW
PM. GUSTS 20-25KT LIKELY LATE.

&&

.MARINE...
INCREASING E-NE FLOW IN THE WAKE OF A BACK DOOR COLD FROPA...AS
THE WATERS BECOME SANDWICHED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
AND DEVELOPING OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE...SHOULD LEAD TO SCA CONDS
TONIGHT INTO WED NIGHT...AND POSSIBLY THU. SCA REMAINS FOR LATE
THIS EVENING THROUGH WED AFTERNOON AS FLOW INCREASES TO 20-25 KT
AND SEAS BUILD TO 3-5 FT BY LATE EVENING...AND TO 4-7 FT ON WED.

GENERALLY EXPECTING SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL NON-OCEAN WATERS
THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND. FOR THE OCEAN WATERS...OCNL GUSTS UP
TO 25 KT WILL BE PSBL WED NIGHT INTO THU...WITH THE WINDS
DIMINISHING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THU. COULD SEE ANOTHER CHC
FOR 25 KT GUSTS RIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT FRI NIGHT-SAT...THEN
SUNDAY WITH CAA OVER THE WATERS. SEAS BUILDING IN RESPONSE TO
INCREASED WINDS MID WEEK...EXPECTING 4-6 FT SEAS THRU THU BEFORE
SUBSIDING WITH THE DIMINISHING WINDS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5-7 FT
FOR THE WEEKEND BEFORE DROPPING TO LESS THAN 5 FT ONCE AGAIN
ON SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN EXPECTED THROUGH TUE NIGHT. A FEW TENTHS OF
AN INCH OF RAINFALL...AND LOCALLY UP TO AN INCH...ARE POSSIBLE
WED-WED NGT...MAINLY SE CT AND ERN LONG ISLAND. BETWEEN ONE HALF
TO ONE INCH OF RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH COLD FROPA
FRI NIGHT-SAT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/SEARS
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...TONGUE
MARINE...GOODMAN/SEARS
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/SEARS









000
FXUS61 KOKX 301132
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
732 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THIS MORNING.
MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL THEN AFFECT THE AREA
THROUGH MID WEEK...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE
NORTH THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH ON
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHORTWAVE WITH ASSOCIATED VORT MAX MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THIS
MORNING...CONTINUING TO TRIGGER LIGHT RAIN WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE OVER
LONG ISLAND...NYC AND SOUTHERN CT. VERY MOIST LOWER LVLS RESULTING
IN AREAS OF FOG....WITH PATCHY DENSE FOG...OVER AREAS OUTSIDE OF NYC
METRO. HAVE ADDED TO FORECAST THROUGH MID MORNING AND ISSUED AN
SPS TO ADDRESS THE SUDDEN VIS CHANGES.

LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS TO E-NE IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT THIS MORNING. AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SLOWLY
WSW-WARD AND A WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS...SHOULD SEE MORE
SHOWERS TODAY ESPECIALLY AS THE COMBO OF DAYTIME SFC HEATING AND
MID LEVEL COOLING VIA THE UPPER TROUGH INCREASES INSTABILITY. NAM
SOUNDINGS SHOW SCAPE OF UP TO 500 J/KG...ENOUGH TO HELP GENERATE
SHOWERS BUT NOT THUNDER WITH THE INSTABILITY CONFINED MOSTLY BELOW
THE FREEZING LEVEL. FCST LIKELY POP MAINLY FOR LONG ISLAND...WITH
CHANCE ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE AROUND TONIGHT INTO
WED AS AN UPPER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...THEN MOVES ACROSS
ON WED. THE UPPER LOW WILL INTERACT WITH A DEVELOPING INVERTED
TROUGH EXTENDING NW-WARD FROM OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE ON WED...
WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVIER RAIN OF OVER AN INCH NEAR AND
JUST EAST OF WHERE THIS INTERACTION OCCURS...WHICH IS STILL
UNCERTAIN DUE TO ITS MESOSCALE NATURE. THE 00Z NAM/GFS AND 29/12Z
ECMWF WERE POINTING TOWARD SE CT AND ERN LONG ISLAND...WHILE THE
00Z ECMWF/03Z SREF ARE FARTHER EAST.

CLOUDY SKIES AND AND E-NE FLOW OF MARITIME AIR WILL PERSIST...WITH
TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEG ABOVE AVG TODAY...THEN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVG ON WED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LINGERING CHC FOR PCPN WED EVENING...MAINLY OVER EASTERN AREAS...AS
STRONG UPR LVL SHORTWAVE CLOSES OFF AND PUSHES EAST. 00Z MODEL
SUITE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH RAIN SHOWERS ENDING OVER AREAS WEST
OF NYC BY 06Z...AND THEN EASTERN AREAS BY THURS MORNING. WHILE A
BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOUR IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WED EVENING...THE
TREND WITH THE MODELS HAS TO PUSH IT EAST...MOST LIKELY OCCURRING
OUTSIDE THE CWA. DRY CONDITIONS THEN SETTING UP THRU THURS NIGHT-FRI
WITH SFC HIGH DIPPING SOUTH BETWEEN TWO SFC LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS...AND RIDGING ALOFT.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. SLIGHT DISCREPANCIES WITH 00Z MODELS WITH
GFS THE FASTEST SOLUTION AND ECMWF THE SLOWEST. HOWEVER...IT SHOULD
BE NOTED ALL MODELS ARE NOW TRENDING FASTER FOR THE PROGRESSION.
DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGING...THE MODELS COULD BE
WEAKENING IT TOO QUICKLY AND THUS BRINGING THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
PCPN THROUGH QUICKLY AS WELL. AS SUCH...SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED THE TIMING
OF THE PCPN FRI NIGHT-SAT...BUT DID NOT WANT TO DEVIATE TOO MUCH FROM
PRIOR FORECAST UNTIL A GOOD HANDLE OF THE TREND CAN BE MADE.
CONFIDENCE EXISTS IT WILL RAIN ON SATURDAY...FIGURING OUT THE TIMING
WILL NEED TO BE IRONED OUT IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. DRY WX ON
FRIDAY...THEN BEGAN POPS AFTER 00Z SAT WITH THE PASSING OF A WEAK
SHORTWAVE OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPR LVL LOW. HAVE LIKELY POPS IN BY
12Z SAT MORNING AND THEN TAPER POPS OFF WEST TO EAST SAT NIGHT AS
MAIN FORCING ALOFT SWINGS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST.

SFC HIGH BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT SUNDAY-MONDAY WHILE THE
REGION REMAINS UNDER BROAD TROUGHING. HAVE DRY WX IN FOR SUN-MON
WITH THE NEXT CHC OF PCPN COMING BY MON NIGHT.

NEAR SEASONAL TEMPS IN PLACE THRU SAT. A BRIEF BURST OF CAA BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL SEND TEMPS DOWN A DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR SAT
NIGHT-SUN NIGHT. HOWEVER...RETURN FLOW QUICKLY SETS UP WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN...PUSHING TEMPS BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS SLIDING SOUTH ACROSS THE NY METRO THIS MORNING.
THE FRONT SAGS SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND.

IFR CIGS ARE LOCATED BEHIND THE FRONT. THESE ARE NOW INTO KLGA AND
KISP AS OF 11Z. EXPECTING SLOW IMPROVEMENT BY MID MORNING FROM EAST
TO WEST...THOUGH UNSURE OF TIMING DETAILS AND RATE OF IMPROVEMENT.

FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT WE`LL BE VFR IN THE AFTERNOON WITH WESTERN
SECTIONS THE LAST TO IMPROVE.

SOME LIGHT RAIN WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE EASTERN SECTIONS
TODAY.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

JFK FCSTER COMMENTS: UNCERTAINTY IN CIG HEIGHT THIS AM WITH IFR
POSSIBLE AROUND 13Z. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN EAST SFC WIND LESS THAN 10
FOR AFTN.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: EXPECT GRADUAL RAISING OF THE CIG THIS
MORNING. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SFC WIND FCST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: UNCERTAINTY IN ARRIVAL TIME OF MVFR CIG THIS
AM.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: UNCERTAINTY IN CIG HEIGHT THIS AM.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: CONFIDENT IN THE IMPROVEMENT THIS
MORNING...THOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF CIG IMPROVEMENT COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.LATE T0NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER CIGS POSSIBLE. CHC -SHRA E-NE WINDS
AROUND 10 KT.
.WED...MVFR LOCALLY IFR CIGS/VSBYS/-SHRA. E-NE WINDS 10-15 WITH G
20 KT ALONG THE COAST.
.THU...CHC MVFR MAINLY AM. NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.FRI...VFR. SE-S WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.SAT...RAIN LIKELY - MVFR OR LOWER IN THE AM. SW WINDS AM BECMG WNW
PM. GUSTS 20-25KT LIKELY LATE.

&&

.MARINE...
INCREASING E-NE FLOW IN THE WAKE OF A BACK DOOR COLD FROPA...AS
THE WATERS BECOME SANDWICHED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
AND DEVELOPING OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE...SHOULD LEAD TO SCA CONDS
TONIGHT INTO WED NIGHT...AND POSSIBLY THU. SCA REMAINS FOR LATE
THIS EVENING THROUGH WED AFTERNOON AS FLOW INCREASES TO 20-25 KT
AND SEAS BUILD TO 3-5 FT BY LATE EVENING...AND TO 4-7 FT ON WED.

GENERALLY EXPECTING SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL NON-OCEAN WATERS
THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND. FOR THE OCEAN WATERS...OCNL GUSTS UP
TO 25 KT WILL BE PSBL WED NIGHT INTO THU...WITH THE WINDS
DIMINISHING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THU. COULD SEE ANOTHER CHC
FOR 25 KT GUSTS RIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT FRI NIGHT-SAT...THEN
SUNDAY WITH CAA OVER THE WATERS. SEAS BUILDING IN RESPONSE TO
INCREASED WINDS MID WEEK...EXPECTING 4-6 FT SEAS THRU THU BEFORE
SUBSIDING WITH THE DIMINISHING WINDS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5-7 FT
FOR THE WEEKEND BEFORE DROPPING TO LESS THAN 5 FT ONCE AGAIN
ON SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN EXPECTED THROUGH TUE NIGHT. A FEW TENTHS OF
AN INCH OF RAINFALL...AND LOCALLY UP TO AN INCH...ARE POSSIBLE
WED-WED NGT...MAINLY SE CT AND ERN LONG ISLAND. BETWEEN ONE HALF
TO ONE INCH OF RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH COLD FROPA
FRI NIGHT-SAT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/SEARS
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...TONGUE
MARINE...GOODMAN/SEARS
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/SEARS









000
FXUS61 KOKX 301132
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
732 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THIS MORNING.
MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL THEN AFFECT THE AREA
THROUGH MID WEEK...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE
NORTH THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH ON
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHORTWAVE WITH ASSOCIATED VORT MAX MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THIS
MORNING...CONTINUING TO TRIGGER LIGHT RAIN WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE OVER
LONG ISLAND...NYC AND SOUTHERN CT. VERY MOIST LOWER LVLS RESULTING
IN AREAS OF FOG....WITH PATCHY DENSE FOG...OVER AREAS OUTSIDE OF NYC
METRO. HAVE ADDED TO FORECAST THROUGH MID MORNING AND ISSUED AN
SPS TO ADDRESS THE SUDDEN VIS CHANGES.

LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS TO E-NE IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT THIS MORNING. AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SLOWLY
WSW-WARD AND A WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS...SHOULD SEE MORE
SHOWERS TODAY ESPECIALLY AS THE COMBO OF DAYTIME SFC HEATING AND
MID LEVEL COOLING VIA THE UPPER TROUGH INCREASES INSTABILITY. NAM
SOUNDINGS SHOW SCAPE OF UP TO 500 J/KG...ENOUGH TO HELP GENERATE
SHOWERS BUT NOT THUNDER WITH THE INSTABILITY CONFINED MOSTLY BELOW
THE FREEZING LEVEL. FCST LIKELY POP MAINLY FOR LONG ISLAND...WITH
CHANCE ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE AROUND TONIGHT INTO
WED AS AN UPPER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...THEN MOVES ACROSS
ON WED. THE UPPER LOW WILL INTERACT WITH A DEVELOPING INVERTED
TROUGH EXTENDING NW-WARD FROM OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE ON WED...
WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVIER RAIN OF OVER AN INCH NEAR AND
JUST EAST OF WHERE THIS INTERACTION OCCURS...WHICH IS STILL
UNCERTAIN DUE TO ITS MESOSCALE NATURE. THE 00Z NAM/GFS AND 29/12Z
ECMWF WERE POINTING TOWARD SE CT AND ERN LONG ISLAND...WHILE THE
00Z ECMWF/03Z SREF ARE FARTHER EAST.

CLOUDY SKIES AND AND E-NE FLOW OF MARITIME AIR WILL PERSIST...WITH
TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEG ABOVE AVG TODAY...THEN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVG ON WED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LINGERING CHC FOR PCPN WED EVENING...MAINLY OVER EASTERN AREAS...AS
STRONG UPR LVL SHORTWAVE CLOSES OFF AND PUSHES EAST. 00Z MODEL
SUITE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH RAIN SHOWERS ENDING OVER AREAS WEST
OF NYC BY 06Z...AND THEN EASTERN AREAS BY THURS MORNING. WHILE A
BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOUR IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WED EVENING...THE
TREND WITH THE MODELS HAS TO PUSH IT EAST...MOST LIKELY OCCURRING
OUTSIDE THE CWA. DRY CONDITIONS THEN SETTING UP THRU THURS NIGHT-FRI
WITH SFC HIGH DIPPING SOUTH BETWEEN TWO SFC LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS...AND RIDGING ALOFT.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. SLIGHT DISCREPANCIES WITH 00Z MODELS WITH
GFS THE FASTEST SOLUTION AND ECMWF THE SLOWEST. HOWEVER...IT SHOULD
BE NOTED ALL MODELS ARE NOW TRENDING FASTER FOR THE PROGRESSION.
DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGING...THE MODELS COULD BE
WEAKENING IT TOO QUICKLY AND THUS BRINGING THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
PCPN THROUGH QUICKLY AS WELL. AS SUCH...SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED THE TIMING
OF THE PCPN FRI NIGHT-SAT...BUT DID NOT WANT TO DEVIATE TOO MUCH FROM
PRIOR FORECAST UNTIL A GOOD HANDLE OF THE TREND CAN BE MADE.
CONFIDENCE EXISTS IT WILL RAIN ON SATURDAY...FIGURING OUT THE TIMING
WILL NEED TO BE IRONED OUT IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. DRY WX ON
FRIDAY...THEN BEGAN POPS AFTER 00Z SAT WITH THE PASSING OF A WEAK
SHORTWAVE OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPR LVL LOW. HAVE LIKELY POPS IN BY
12Z SAT MORNING AND THEN TAPER POPS OFF WEST TO EAST SAT NIGHT AS
MAIN FORCING ALOFT SWINGS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST.

SFC HIGH BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT SUNDAY-MONDAY WHILE THE
REGION REMAINS UNDER BROAD TROUGHING. HAVE DRY WX IN FOR SUN-MON
WITH THE NEXT CHC OF PCPN COMING BY MON NIGHT.

NEAR SEASONAL TEMPS IN PLACE THRU SAT. A BRIEF BURST OF CAA BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL SEND TEMPS DOWN A DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR SAT
NIGHT-SUN NIGHT. HOWEVER...RETURN FLOW QUICKLY SETS UP WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN...PUSHING TEMPS BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS SLIDING SOUTH ACROSS THE NY METRO THIS MORNING.
THE FRONT SAGS SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND.

IFR CIGS ARE LOCATED BEHIND THE FRONT. THESE ARE NOW INTO KLGA AND
KISP AS OF 11Z. EXPECTING SLOW IMPROVEMENT BY MID MORNING FROM EAST
TO WEST...THOUGH UNSURE OF TIMING DETAILS AND RATE OF IMPROVEMENT.

FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT WE`LL BE VFR IN THE AFTERNOON WITH WESTERN
SECTIONS THE LAST TO IMPROVE.

SOME LIGHT RAIN WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE EASTERN SECTIONS
TODAY.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

JFK FCSTER COMMENTS: UNCERTAINTY IN CIG HEIGHT THIS AM WITH IFR
POSSIBLE AROUND 13Z. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN EAST SFC WIND LESS THAN 10
FOR AFTN.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: EXPECT GRADUAL RAISING OF THE CIG THIS
MORNING. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SFC WIND FCST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: UNCERTAINTY IN ARRIVAL TIME OF MVFR CIG THIS
AM.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: UNCERTAINTY IN CIG HEIGHT THIS AM.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: CONFIDENT IN THE IMPROVEMENT THIS
MORNING...THOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF CIG IMPROVEMENT COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.LATE T0NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER CIGS POSSIBLE. CHC -SHRA E-NE WINDS
AROUND 10 KT.
.WED...MVFR LOCALLY IFR CIGS/VSBYS/-SHRA. E-NE WINDS 10-15 WITH G
20 KT ALONG THE COAST.
.THU...CHC MVFR MAINLY AM. NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.FRI...VFR. SE-S WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.SAT...RAIN LIKELY - MVFR OR LOWER IN THE AM. SW WINDS AM BECMG WNW
PM. GUSTS 20-25KT LIKELY LATE.

&&

.MARINE...
INCREASING E-NE FLOW IN THE WAKE OF A BACK DOOR COLD FROPA...AS
THE WATERS BECOME SANDWICHED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
AND DEVELOPING OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE...SHOULD LEAD TO SCA CONDS
TONIGHT INTO WED NIGHT...AND POSSIBLY THU. SCA REMAINS FOR LATE
THIS EVENING THROUGH WED AFTERNOON AS FLOW INCREASES TO 20-25 KT
AND SEAS BUILD TO 3-5 FT BY LATE EVENING...AND TO 4-7 FT ON WED.

GENERALLY EXPECTING SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL NON-OCEAN WATERS
THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND. FOR THE OCEAN WATERS...OCNL GUSTS UP
TO 25 KT WILL BE PSBL WED NIGHT INTO THU...WITH THE WINDS
DIMINISHING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THU. COULD SEE ANOTHER CHC
FOR 25 KT GUSTS RIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT FRI NIGHT-SAT...THEN
SUNDAY WITH CAA OVER THE WATERS. SEAS BUILDING IN RESPONSE TO
INCREASED WINDS MID WEEK...EXPECTING 4-6 FT SEAS THRU THU BEFORE
SUBSIDING WITH THE DIMINISHING WINDS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5-7 FT
FOR THE WEEKEND BEFORE DROPPING TO LESS THAN 5 FT ONCE AGAIN
ON SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN EXPECTED THROUGH TUE NIGHT. A FEW TENTHS OF
AN INCH OF RAINFALL...AND LOCALLY UP TO AN INCH...ARE POSSIBLE
WED-WED NGT...MAINLY SE CT AND ERN LONG ISLAND. BETWEEN ONE HALF
TO ONE INCH OF RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH COLD FROPA
FRI NIGHT-SAT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/SEARS
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...TONGUE
MARINE...GOODMAN/SEARS
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/SEARS









000
FXUS61 KOKX 301132
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
732 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THIS MORNING.
MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL THEN AFFECT THE AREA
THROUGH MID WEEK...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE
NORTH THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH ON
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHORTWAVE WITH ASSOCIATED VORT MAX MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THIS
MORNING...CONTINUING TO TRIGGER LIGHT RAIN WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE OVER
LONG ISLAND...NYC AND SOUTHERN CT. VERY MOIST LOWER LVLS RESULTING
IN AREAS OF FOG....WITH PATCHY DENSE FOG...OVER AREAS OUTSIDE OF NYC
METRO. HAVE ADDED TO FORECAST THROUGH MID MORNING AND ISSUED AN
SPS TO ADDRESS THE SUDDEN VIS CHANGES.

LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS TO E-NE IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT THIS MORNING. AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SLOWLY
WSW-WARD AND A WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS...SHOULD SEE MORE
SHOWERS TODAY ESPECIALLY AS THE COMBO OF DAYTIME SFC HEATING AND
MID LEVEL COOLING VIA THE UPPER TROUGH INCREASES INSTABILITY. NAM
SOUNDINGS SHOW SCAPE OF UP TO 500 J/KG...ENOUGH TO HELP GENERATE
SHOWERS BUT NOT THUNDER WITH THE INSTABILITY CONFINED MOSTLY BELOW
THE FREEZING LEVEL. FCST LIKELY POP MAINLY FOR LONG ISLAND...WITH
CHANCE ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE AROUND TONIGHT INTO
WED AS AN UPPER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...THEN MOVES ACROSS
ON WED. THE UPPER LOW WILL INTERACT WITH A DEVELOPING INVERTED
TROUGH EXTENDING NW-WARD FROM OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE ON WED...
WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVIER RAIN OF OVER AN INCH NEAR AND
JUST EAST OF WHERE THIS INTERACTION OCCURS...WHICH IS STILL
UNCERTAIN DUE TO ITS MESOSCALE NATURE. THE 00Z NAM/GFS AND 29/12Z
ECMWF WERE POINTING TOWARD SE CT AND ERN LONG ISLAND...WHILE THE
00Z ECMWF/03Z SREF ARE FARTHER EAST.

CLOUDY SKIES AND AND E-NE FLOW OF MARITIME AIR WILL PERSIST...WITH
TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEG ABOVE AVG TODAY...THEN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVG ON WED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LINGERING CHC FOR PCPN WED EVENING...MAINLY OVER EASTERN AREAS...AS
STRONG UPR LVL SHORTWAVE CLOSES OFF AND PUSHES EAST. 00Z MODEL
SUITE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH RAIN SHOWERS ENDING OVER AREAS WEST
OF NYC BY 06Z...AND THEN EASTERN AREAS BY THURS MORNING. WHILE A
BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOUR IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WED EVENING...THE
TREND WITH THE MODELS HAS TO PUSH IT EAST...MOST LIKELY OCCURRING
OUTSIDE THE CWA. DRY CONDITIONS THEN SETTING UP THRU THURS NIGHT-FRI
WITH SFC HIGH DIPPING SOUTH BETWEEN TWO SFC LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS...AND RIDGING ALOFT.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. SLIGHT DISCREPANCIES WITH 00Z MODELS WITH
GFS THE FASTEST SOLUTION AND ECMWF THE SLOWEST. HOWEVER...IT SHOULD
BE NOTED ALL MODELS ARE NOW TRENDING FASTER FOR THE PROGRESSION.
DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGING...THE MODELS COULD BE
WEAKENING IT TOO QUICKLY AND THUS BRINGING THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
PCPN THROUGH QUICKLY AS WELL. AS SUCH...SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED THE TIMING
OF THE PCPN FRI NIGHT-SAT...BUT DID NOT WANT TO DEVIATE TOO MUCH FROM
PRIOR FORECAST UNTIL A GOOD HANDLE OF THE TREND CAN BE MADE.
CONFIDENCE EXISTS IT WILL RAIN ON SATURDAY...FIGURING OUT THE TIMING
WILL NEED TO BE IRONED OUT IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. DRY WX ON
FRIDAY...THEN BEGAN POPS AFTER 00Z SAT WITH THE PASSING OF A WEAK
SHORTWAVE OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPR LVL LOW. HAVE LIKELY POPS IN BY
12Z SAT MORNING AND THEN TAPER POPS OFF WEST TO EAST SAT NIGHT AS
MAIN FORCING ALOFT SWINGS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST.

SFC HIGH BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT SUNDAY-MONDAY WHILE THE
REGION REMAINS UNDER BROAD TROUGHING. HAVE DRY WX IN FOR SUN-MON
WITH THE NEXT CHC OF PCPN COMING BY MON NIGHT.

NEAR SEASONAL TEMPS IN PLACE THRU SAT. A BRIEF BURST OF CAA BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL SEND TEMPS DOWN A DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR SAT
NIGHT-SUN NIGHT. HOWEVER...RETURN FLOW QUICKLY SETS UP WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN...PUSHING TEMPS BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS SLIDING SOUTH ACROSS THE NY METRO THIS MORNING.
THE FRONT SAGS SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND.

IFR CIGS ARE LOCATED BEHIND THE FRONT. THESE ARE NOW INTO KLGA AND
KISP AS OF 11Z. EXPECTING SLOW IMPROVEMENT BY MID MORNING FROM EAST
TO WEST...THOUGH UNSURE OF TIMING DETAILS AND RATE OF IMPROVEMENT.

FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT WE`LL BE VFR IN THE AFTERNOON WITH WESTERN
SECTIONS THE LAST TO IMPROVE.

SOME LIGHT RAIN WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE EASTERN SECTIONS
TODAY.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

JFK FCSTER COMMENTS: UNCERTAINTY IN CIG HEIGHT THIS AM WITH IFR
POSSIBLE AROUND 13Z. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN EAST SFC WIND LESS THAN 10
FOR AFTN.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: EXPECT GRADUAL RAISING OF THE CIG THIS
MORNING. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SFC WIND FCST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: UNCERTAINTY IN ARRIVAL TIME OF MVFR CIG THIS
AM.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: UNCERTAINTY IN CIG HEIGHT THIS AM.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: CONFIDENT IN THE IMPROVEMENT THIS
MORNING...THOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF CIG IMPROVEMENT COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.LATE T0NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER CIGS POSSIBLE. CHC -SHRA E-NE WINDS
AROUND 10 KT.
.WED...MVFR LOCALLY IFR CIGS/VSBYS/-SHRA. E-NE WINDS 10-15 WITH G
20 KT ALONG THE COAST.
.THU...CHC MVFR MAINLY AM. NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.FRI...VFR. SE-S WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.SAT...RAIN LIKELY - MVFR OR LOWER IN THE AM. SW WINDS AM BECMG WNW
PM. GUSTS 20-25KT LIKELY LATE.

&&

.MARINE...
INCREASING E-NE FLOW IN THE WAKE OF A BACK DOOR COLD FROPA...AS
THE WATERS BECOME SANDWICHED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
AND DEVELOPING OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE...SHOULD LEAD TO SCA CONDS
TONIGHT INTO WED NIGHT...AND POSSIBLY THU. SCA REMAINS FOR LATE
THIS EVENING THROUGH WED AFTERNOON AS FLOW INCREASES TO 20-25 KT
AND SEAS BUILD TO 3-5 FT BY LATE EVENING...AND TO 4-7 FT ON WED.

GENERALLY EXPECTING SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL NON-OCEAN WATERS
THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND. FOR THE OCEAN WATERS...OCNL GUSTS UP
TO 25 KT WILL BE PSBL WED NIGHT INTO THU...WITH THE WINDS
DIMINISHING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THU. COULD SEE ANOTHER CHC
FOR 25 KT GUSTS RIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT FRI NIGHT-SAT...THEN
SUNDAY WITH CAA OVER THE WATERS. SEAS BUILDING IN RESPONSE TO
INCREASED WINDS MID WEEK...EXPECTING 4-6 FT SEAS THRU THU BEFORE
SUBSIDING WITH THE DIMINISHING WINDS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5-7 FT
FOR THE WEEKEND BEFORE DROPPING TO LESS THAN 5 FT ONCE AGAIN
ON SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN EXPECTED THROUGH TUE NIGHT. A FEW TENTHS OF
AN INCH OF RAINFALL...AND LOCALLY UP TO AN INCH...ARE POSSIBLE
WED-WED NGT...MAINLY SE CT AND ERN LONG ISLAND. BETWEEN ONE HALF
TO ONE INCH OF RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH COLD FROPA
FRI NIGHT-SAT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/SEARS
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...TONGUE
MARINE...GOODMAN/SEARS
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/SEARS









000
FXUS61 KBOX 301047
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
647 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK AS
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE. ONE OR TWO WEAK WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE REGION. AN
APPROACHING FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO AFFECT
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

7 AM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE AT THIS TIME. COOL
NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES. ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON OBSERVED CONDITIONS
BUT GENERAL FLOW OF THE FORECAST REMAINS THE SAME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ALLOWING FOR AREAS OF
LOW CLOUDS... FOG...AND DRIZZLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER STARTS TO MIX A BIT THOUGH...DRIZZLE SHOULD COME TO
AN END. A FEW STEADIER SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS RHODE ISLAND
AND SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS LATER TODAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE ABOUT
5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...EXPECTING ANOTHER NIGHT MUCH LIKE THE LAST WITH LOW
PRESSURE WELL SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET.  AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS...
FOG...AND DRIZZLE ARE LIKELY ONCE AGAIN WITH VERY MOIST AIR IN THE
LOW LEVELS.  MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS RHODE
ISLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AS THE MID LEVEL LOW PUSHES
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE FAIRLY MILD
THANKS TO THE LOW LEVEL HUMIDITY WITH MOST LOCATIONS REMAINING IN
THE 50S.

WEDNESDAY...BEST SHOT OF SHOWERS AS MID LEVEL LOW MOVES OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THESE WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED MAINLY TO
SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND WHERE THE BEST LIFT
EXISTS.  OTHERWISE...MORE OF THE SAME LOW CLOUDS...DRIZZLE...AND
FOG. OVERCAST SKIES AND WET WEATHER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BIG PICTURE... ALASKA SHORTWAVE DIGS OVER THE WESTERN USA/CANADA AND
KICKS THE ESTABLISHED UPPER TROUGH EAST TO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
BRINGS A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE EASTERN USA WITH BELOW
NORMAL HEIGHTS WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN USA.

EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW...A CLOSED LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT MOVES OFF THROUGH THE MARITIMES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

THE DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY... UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. LINGERING INSTABILITY UNDER THE COLD CORE
SHOULD SUPPORT LINGERING SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT TAPERING OFF
THURSDAY MORNING. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW PLENTY OF MOISTURE BELOW 600
MB THROUGH THURSDAY MIDDAY FOLLOWED BY A DRYING TREND IN THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER ARE EQUIV TO 850 MB
TEMPS OF 2-5C...SUPPORTING MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. MOIST
GROUND AND COOLING TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW PATCHY FOG TO
FORM ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR.

FRIDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OVER NEW ENGLAND. CROSS
SECTIONS OF RH SHOW INCREASING CIRRUS-LEVEL MOISTURE BUT DRY THROUGH
MOST OF THE COLUMN...INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TOWARD EVENING.
OVERALL...EXPECT A FAIR WEATHER DAY WITH LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WIND. TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER WOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN
THE MID AND UPPER 60S. THE EAST FLOW MAY KEEP COOLER TEMPS NEAR THE
EAST MASS COAST.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY... SHORTWAVE DRIVING AROUND THE DEEPENING
EASTERN TROUGH PUSHES A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
FRIDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY. THE SHORTWAVE AND
THE SUPPORTING JET ENERGY SHOW SIGNS OF LIFTING THROUGH EASTERN NY
AND VERMONT...BUT WITH POTENTIAL TO DIRECTLY AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. ANOTHER CONCERN WOULD BE THE DRY PATTERN WE HAVE BEEN IN
FOR SEVERAL WEEKS...THESE PATTERNS TEND TO MAINTAIN THEMSELVES EVEN
WHEN FORECAST DATA SAYS OTHERWISE. AND A DAY 5 FORECAST IS RATHER
FAR OUT TO SHOW GREAT CERTAINTY. WE WILL MAINTAINING CONTINUITY WITH
POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND WITH ADJOINING OFFICES...BUT OUR
ACTUAL CONFIDENCE IS 15-20 PERCENT LOWER.

SUNDAY-MONDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS UP FROM THE SOUTH AND SHOULD
PROVIDE DRY WEATHER MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. THE UPPER TROUGH CENTERED
TO OUR WEST WILL BRING LOWER HEIGHTS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL
MEAN COOLER TEMPS. TEMPERATURES HERE IN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD BE A
LITTLE COOLER THAN NORMAL BUT EXPECT THE COLDEST TEMPS TO REMAIN
WEST OF NEW ENGLAND WITH THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH.

A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE TROUGH ON MONDAY AND SOUTHERLY WINDS
AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL BRING HIGHER MOISTURE AIR OUR
WAY...GENERATING SOME CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SHOWERS. THESE
CLOUDS/SHOWERS SHOULD HOLD UNTIL THE SHORTWAVE GETS
CLOSER...PROBABLY MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING.

TODAY...IFR CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST. SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY ACROSS EASTERN MA/RI WHERE MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

TONIGHT...MORE OF THE SAME WITH IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN LOW
CLOUDS...FOG...AND DRIZZLE.

WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVE ONCE AGAIN AT LEAST TEMPORARILY IN
THE WEST. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY ACROSS EASTERN MA/RI.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...CIGS/VSBYS AT MVFR/IFR IN LINGERING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  PATCHY IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY...VFR.

SATURDAY...CONDITIONS DIMINISHING TO MVFR IN SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH.  SOUTH WINDS LEAD THE COLD FRONT...WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO WEST AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH WED.

PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN BUILDING SEAS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.  INCREASED WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE BY 20 PERCENT TO ACCOUNT
FOR A GENERAL LOW BIAS IN THIS TYPE OF SCENARIO. SCA CONTINUES FOR
THE NORTHEASTERN WATERS THROUGH THIS MORNING.  ALSO ISSUED SCA FOR
SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN OUTER WATERS FOR TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NORTHEAST WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH GUSTS NEAR 20
KNOTS. WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTH SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...THEN
SHIFT WEST AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WIND GUSTS 20 TO 25
KNOTS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY. SEAS OF 5 TO 8 FEET LINGER ON THE
EXPOSED WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.  EXPECT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY ON AT LEAST THE EXPOSED WATERS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

MAY EXPERIENCE A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 1.5 FEET DURING MIDWEEK BUT
THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE NOT ALL THAT HIGH.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ250-
     251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/RLG
NEAR TERM...WTB/RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/RLG
MARINE...WTB/RLG




000
FXUS61 KBOX 301047
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
647 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK AS
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE. ONE OR TWO WEAK WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE REGION. AN
APPROACHING FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO AFFECT
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

7 AM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE AT THIS TIME. COOL
NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES. ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON OBSERVED CONDITIONS
BUT GENERAL FLOW OF THE FORECAST REMAINS THE SAME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ALLOWING FOR AREAS OF
LOW CLOUDS... FOG...AND DRIZZLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER STARTS TO MIX A BIT THOUGH...DRIZZLE SHOULD COME TO
AN END. A FEW STEADIER SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS RHODE ISLAND
AND SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS LATER TODAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE ABOUT
5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...EXPECTING ANOTHER NIGHT MUCH LIKE THE LAST WITH LOW
PRESSURE WELL SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET.  AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS...
FOG...AND DRIZZLE ARE LIKELY ONCE AGAIN WITH VERY MOIST AIR IN THE
LOW LEVELS.  MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS RHODE
ISLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AS THE MID LEVEL LOW PUSHES
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE FAIRLY MILD
THANKS TO THE LOW LEVEL HUMIDITY WITH MOST LOCATIONS REMAINING IN
THE 50S.

WEDNESDAY...BEST SHOT OF SHOWERS AS MID LEVEL LOW MOVES OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THESE WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED MAINLY TO
SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND WHERE THE BEST LIFT
EXISTS.  OTHERWISE...MORE OF THE SAME LOW CLOUDS...DRIZZLE...AND
FOG. OVERCAST SKIES AND WET WEATHER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BIG PICTURE... ALASKA SHORTWAVE DIGS OVER THE WESTERN USA/CANADA AND
KICKS THE ESTABLISHED UPPER TROUGH EAST TO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
BRINGS A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE EASTERN USA WITH BELOW
NORMAL HEIGHTS WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN USA.

EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW...A CLOSED LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT MOVES OFF THROUGH THE MARITIMES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

THE DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY... UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. LINGERING INSTABILITY UNDER THE COLD CORE
SHOULD SUPPORT LINGERING SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT TAPERING OFF
THURSDAY MORNING. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW PLENTY OF MOISTURE BELOW 600
MB THROUGH THURSDAY MIDDAY FOLLOWED BY A DRYING TREND IN THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER ARE EQUIV TO 850 MB
TEMPS OF 2-5C...SUPPORTING MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. MOIST
GROUND AND COOLING TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW PATCHY FOG TO
FORM ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR.

FRIDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OVER NEW ENGLAND. CROSS
SECTIONS OF RH SHOW INCREASING CIRRUS-LEVEL MOISTURE BUT DRY THROUGH
MOST OF THE COLUMN...INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TOWARD EVENING.
OVERALL...EXPECT A FAIR WEATHER DAY WITH LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WIND. TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER WOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN
THE MID AND UPPER 60S. THE EAST FLOW MAY KEEP COOLER TEMPS NEAR THE
EAST MASS COAST.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY... SHORTWAVE DRIVING AROUND THE DEEPENING
EASTERN TROUGH PUSHES A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
FRIDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY. THE SHORTWAVE AND
THE SUPPORTING JET ENERGY SHOW SIGNS OF LIFTING THROUGH EASTERN NY
AND VERMONT...BUT WITH POTENTIAL TO DIRECTLY AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. ANOTHER CONCERN WOULD BE THE DRY PATTERN WE HAVE BEEN IN
FOR SEVERAL WEEKS...THESE PATTERNS TEND TO MAINTAIN THEMSELVES EVEN
WHEN FORECAST DATA SAYS OTHERWISE. AND A DAY 5 FORECAST IS RATHER
FAR OUT TO SHOW GREAT CERTAINTY. WE WILL MAINTAINING CONTINUITY WITH
POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND WITH ADJOINING OFFICES...BUT OUR
ACTUAL CONFIDENCE IS 15-20 PERCENT LOWER.

SUNDAY-MONDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS UP FROM THE SOUTH AND SHOULD
PROVIDE DRY WEATHER MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. THE UPPER TROUGH CENTERED
TO OUR WEST WILL BRING LOWER HEIGHTS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL
MEAN COOLER TEMPS. TEMPERATURES HERE IN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD BE A
LITTLE COOLER THAN NORMAL BUT EXPECT THE COLDEST TEMPS TO REMAIN
WEST OF NEW ENGLAND WITH THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH.

A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE TROUGH ON MONDAY AND SOUTHERLY WINDS
AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL BRING HIGHER MOISTURE AIR OUR
WAY...GENERATING SOME CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SHOWERS. THESE
CLOUDS/SHOWERS SHOULD HOLD UNTIL THE SHORTWAVE GETS
CLOSER...PROBABLY MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING.

TODAY...IFR CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST. SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY ACROSS EASTERN MA/RI WHERE MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

TONIGHT...MORE OF THE SAME WITH IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN LOW
CLOUDS...FOG...AND DRIZZLE.

WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVE ONCE AGAIN AT LEAST TEMPORARILY IN
THE WEST. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY ACROSS EASTERN MA/RI.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...CIGS/VSBYS AT MVFR/IFR IN LINGERING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  PATCHY IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY...VFR.

SATURDAY...CONDITIONS DIMINISHING TO MVFR IN SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH.  SOUTH WINDS LEAD THE COLD FRONT...WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO WEST AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH WED.

PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN BUILDING SEAS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.  INCREASED WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE BY 20 PERCENT TO ACCOUNT
FOR A GENERAL LOW BIAS IN THIS TYPE OF SCENARIO. SCA CONTINUES FOR
THE NORTHEASTERN WATERS THROUGH THIS MORNING.  ALSO ISSUED SCA FOR
SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN OUTER WATERS FOR TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NORTHEAST WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH GUSTS NEAR 20
KNOTS. WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTH SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...THEN
SHIFT WEST AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WIND GUSTS 20 TO 25
KNOTS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY. SEAS OF 5 TO 8 FEET LINGER ON THE
EXPOSED WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.  EXPECT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY ON AT LEAST THE EXPOSED WATERS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

MAY EXPERIENCE A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 1.5 FEET DURING MIDWEEK BUT
THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE NOT ALL THAT HIGH.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ250-
     251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/RLG
NEAR TERM...WTB/RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/RLG
MARINE...WTB/RLG




000
FXUS61 KBOX 301047
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
647 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK AS
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE. ONE OR TWO WEAK WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE REGION. AN
APPROACHING FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO AFFECT
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

7 AM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE AT THIS TIME. COOL
NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES. ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON OBSERVED CONDITIONS
BUT GENERAL FLOW OF THE FORECAST REMAINS THE SAME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ALLOWING FOR AREAS OF
LOW CLOUDS... FOG...AND DRIZZLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER STARTS TO MIX A BIT THOUGH...DRIZZLE SHOULD COME TO
AN END. A FEW STEADIER SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS RHODE ISLAND
AND SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS LATER TODAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE ABOUT
5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...EXPECTING ANOTHER NIGHT MUCH LIKE THE LAST WITH LOW
PRESSURE WELL SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET.  AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS...
FOG...AND DRIZZLE ARE LIKELY ONCE AGAIN WITH VERY MOIST AIR IN THE
LOW LEVELS.  MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS RHODE
ISLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AS THE MID LEVEL LOW PUSHES
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE FAIRLY MILD
THANKS TO THE LOW LEVEL HUMIDITY WITH MOST LOCATIONS REMAINING IN
THE 50S.

WEDNESDAY...BEST SHOT OF SHOWERS AS MID LEVEL LOW MOVES OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THESE WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED MAINLY TO
SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND WHERE THE BEST LIFT
EXISTS.  OTHERWISE...MORE OF THE SAME LOW CLOUDS...DRIZZLE...AND
FOG. OVERCAST SKIES AND WET WEATHER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BIG PICTURE... ALASKA SHORTWAVE DIGS OVER THE WESTERN USA/CANADA AND
KICKS THE ESTABLISHED UPPER TROUGH EAST TO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
BRINGS A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE EASTERN USA WITH BELOW
NORMAL HEIGHTS WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN USA.

EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW...A CLOSED LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT MOVES OFF THROUGH THE MARITIMES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

THE DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY... UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. LINGERING INSTABILITY UNDER THE COLD CORE
SHOULD SUPPORT LINGERING SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT TAPERING OFF
THURSDAY MORNING. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW PLENTY OF MOISTURE BELOW 600
MB THROUGH THURSDAY MIDDAY FOLLOWED BY A DRYING TREND IN THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER ARE EQUIV TO 850 MB
TEMPS OF 2-5C...SUPPORTING MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. MOIST
GROUND AND COOLING TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW PATCHY FOG TO
FORM ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR.

FRIDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OVER NEW ENGLAND. CROSS
SECTIONS OF RH SHOW INCREASING CIRRUS-LEVEL MOISTURE BUT DRY THROUGH
MOST OF THE COLUMN...INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TOWARD EVENING.
OVERALL...EXPECT A FAIR WEATHER DAY WITH LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WIND. TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER WOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN
THE MID AND UPPER 60S. THE EAST FLOW MAY KEEP COOLER TEMPS NEAR THE
EAST MASS COAST.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY... SHORTWAVE DRIVING AROUND THE DEEPENING
EASTERN TROUGH PUSHES A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
FRIDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY. THE SHORTWAVE AND
THE SUPPORTING JET ENERGY SHOW SIGNS OF LIFTING THROUGH EASTERN NY
AND VERMONT...BUT WITH POTENTIAL TO DIRECTLY AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. ANOTHER CONCERN WOULD BE THE DRY PATTERN WE HAVE BEEN IN
FOR SEVERAL WEEKS...THESE PATTERNS TEND TO MAINTAIN THEMSELVES EVEN
WHEN FORECAST DATA SAYS OTHERWISE. AND A DAY 5 FORECAST IS RATHER
FAR OUT TO SHOW GREAT CERTAINTY. WE WILL MAINTAINING CONTINUITY WITH
POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND WITH ADJOINING OFFICES...BUT OUR
ACTUAL CONFIDENCE IS 15-20 PERCENT LOWER.

SUNDAY-MONDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS UP FROM THE SOUTH AND SHOULD
PROVIDE DRY WEATHER MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. THE UPPER TROUGH CENTERED
TO OUR WEST WILL BRING LOWER HEIGHTS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL
MEAN COOLER TEMPS. TEMPERATURES HERE IN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD BE A
LITTLE COOLER THAN NORMAL BUT EXPECT THE COLDEST TEMPS TO REMAIN
WEST OF NEW ENGLAND WITH THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH.

A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE TROUGH ON MONDAY AND SOUTHERLY WINDS
AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL BRING HIGHER MOISTURE AIR OUR
WAY...GENERATING SOME CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SHOWERS. THESE
CLOUDS/SHOWERS SHOULD HOLD UNTIL THE SHORTWAVE GETS
CLOSER...PROBABLY MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING.

TODAY...IFR CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST. SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY ACROSS EASTERN MA/RI WHERE MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

TONIGHT...MORE OF THE SAME WITH IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN LOW
CLOUDS...FOG...AND DRIZZLE.

WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVE ONCE AGAIN AT LEAST TEMPORARILY IN
THE WEST. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY ACROSS EASTERN MA/RI.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...CIGS/VSBYS AT MVFR/IFR IN LINGERING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  PATCHY IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY...VFR.

SATURDAY...CONDITIONS DIMINISHING TO MVFR IN SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH.  SOUTH WINDS LEAD THE COLD FRONT...WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO WEST AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH WED.

PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN BUILDING SEAS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.  INCREASED WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE BY 20 PERCENT TO ACCOUNT
FOR A GENERAL LOW BIAS IN THIS TYPE OF SCENARIO. SCA CONTINUES FOR
THE NORTHEASTERN WATERS THROUGH THIS MORNING.  ALSO ISSUED SCA FOR
SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN OUTER WATERS FOR TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NORTHEAST WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH GUSTS NEAR 20
KNOTS. WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTH SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...THEN
SHIFT WEST AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WIND GUSTS 20 TO 25
KNOTS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY. SEAS OF 5 TO 8 FEET LINGER ON THE
EXPOSED WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.  EXPECT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY ON AT LEAST THE EXPOSED WATERS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

MAY EXPERIENCE A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 1.5 FEET DURING MIDWEEK BUT
THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE NOT ALL THAT HIGH.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ250-
     251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/RLG
NEAR TERM...WTB/RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/RLG
MARINE...WTB/RLG




000
FXUS61 KBOX 301047
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
647 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK AS
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE. ONE OR TWO WEAK WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE REGION. AN
APPROACHING FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO AFFECT
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

7 AM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE AT THIS TIME. COOL
NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES. ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON OBSERVED CONDITIONS
BUT GENERAL FLOW OF THE FORECAST REMAINS THE SAME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ALLOWING FOR AREAS OF
LOW CLOUDS... FOG...AND DRIZZLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER STARTS TO MIX A BIT THOUGH...DRIZZLE SHOULD COME TO
AN END. A FEW STEADIER SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS RHODE ISLAND
AND SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS LATER TODAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE ABOUT
5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...EXPECTING ANOTHER NIGHT MUCH LIKE THE LAST WITH LOW
PRESSURE WELL SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET.  AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS...
FOG...AND DRIZZLE ARE LIKELY ONCE AGAIN WITH VERY MOIST AIR IN THE
LOW LEVELS.  MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS RHODE
ISLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AS THE MID LEVEL LOW PUSHES
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE FAIRLY MILD
THANKS TO THE LOW LEVEL HUMIDITY WITH MOST LOCATIONS REMAINING IN
THE 50S.

WEDNESDAY...BEST SHOT OF SHOWERS AS MID LEVEL LOW MOVES OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THESE WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED MAINLY TO
SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND WHERE THE BEST LIFT
EXISTS.  OTHERWISE...MORE OF THE SAME LOW CLOUDS...DRIZZLE...AND
FOG. OVERCAST SKIES AND WET WEATHER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BIG PICTURE... ALASKA SHORTWAVE DIGS OVER THE WESTERN USA/CANADA AND
KICKS THE ESTABLISHED UPPER TROUGH EAST TO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
BRINGS A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE EASTERN USA WITH BELOW
NORMAL HEIGHTS WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN USA.

EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW...A CLOSED LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT MOVES OFF THROUGH THE MARITIMES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

THE DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY... UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. LINGERING INSTABILITY UNDER THE COLD CORE
SHOULD SUPPORT LINGERING SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT TAPERING OFF
THURSDAY MORNING. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW PLENTY OF MOISTURE BELOW 600
MB THROUGH THURSDAY MIDDAY FOLLOWED BY A DRYING TREND IN THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER ARE EQUIV TO 850 MB
TEMPS OF 2-5C...SUPPORTING MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. MOIST
GROUND AND COOLING TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW PATCHY FOG TO
FORM ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR.

FRIDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OVER NEW ENGLAND. CROSS
SECTIONS OF RH SHOW INCREASING CIRRUS-LEVEL MOISTURE BUT DRY THROUGH
MOST OF THE COLUMN...INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TOWARD EVENING.
OVERALL...EXPECT A FAIR WEATHER DAY WITH LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WIND. TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER WOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN
THE MID AND UPPER 60S. THE EAST FLOW MAY KEEP COOLER TEMPS NEAR THE
EAST MASS COAST.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY... SHORTWAVE DRIVING AROUND THE DEEPENING
EASTERN TROUGH PUSHES A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
FRIDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY. THE SHORTWAVE AND
THE SUPPORTING JET ENERGY SHOW SIGNS OF LIFTING THROUGH EASTERN NY
AND VERMONT...BUT WITH POTENTIAL TO DIRECTLY AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. ANOTHER CONCERN WOULD BE THE DRY PATTERN WE HAVE BEEN IN
FOR SEVERAL WEEKS...THESE PATTERNS TEND TO MAINTAIN THEMSELVES EVEN
WHEN FORECAST DATA SAYS OTHERWISE. AND A DAY 5 FORECAST IS RATHER
FAR OUT TO SHOW GREAT CERTAINTY. WE WILL MAINTAINING CONTINUITY WITH
POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND WITH ADJOINING OFFICES...BUT OUR
ACTUAL CONFIDENCE IS 15-20 PERCENT LOWER.

SUNDAY-MONDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS UP FROM THE SOUTH AND SHOULD
PROVIDE DRY WEATHER MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. THE UPPER TROUGH CENTERED
TO OUR WEST WILL BRING LOWER HEIGHTS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL
MEAN COOLER TEMPS. TEMPERATURES HERE IN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD BE A
LITTLE COOLER THAN NORMAL BUT EXPECT THE COLDEST TEMPS TO REMAIN
WEST OF NEW ENGLAND WITH THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH.

A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE TROUGH ON MONDAY AND SOUTHERLY WINDS
AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL BRING HIGHER MOISTURE AIR OUR
WAY...GENERATING SOME CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SHOWERS. THESE
CLOUDS/SHOWERS SHOULD HOLD UNTIL THE SHORTWAVE GETS
CLOSER...PROBABLY MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING.

TODAY...IFR CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST. SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY ACROSS EASTERN MA/RI WHERE MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

TONIGHT...MORE OF THE SAME WITH IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN LOW
CLOUDS...FOG...AND DRIZZLE.

WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVE ONCE AGAIN AT LEAST TEMPORARILY IN
THE WEST. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY ACROSS EASTERN MA/RI.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...CIGS/VSBYS AT MVFR/IFR IN LINGERING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  PATCHY IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY...VFR.

SATURDAY...CONDITIONS DIMINISHING TO MVFR IN SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH.  SOUTH WINDS LEAD THE COLD FRONT...WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO WEST AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH WED.

PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN BUILDING SEAS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.  INCREASED WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE BY 20 PERCENT TO ACCOUNT
FOR A GENERAL LOW BIAS IN THIS TYPE OF SCENARIO. SCA CONTINUES FOR
THE NORTHEASTERN WATERS THROUGH THIS MORNING.  ALSO ISSUED SCA FOR
SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN OUTER WATERS FOR TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NORTHEAST WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH GUSTS NEAR 20
KNOTS. WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTH SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...THEN
SHIFT WEST AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WIND GUSTS 20 TO 25
KNOTS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY. SEAS OF 5 TO 8 FEET LINGER ON THE
EXPOSED WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.  EXPECT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY ON AT LEAST THE EXPOSED WATERS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

MAY EXPERIENCE A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 1.5 FEET DURING MIDWEEK BUT
THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE NOT ALL THAT HIGH.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ250-
     251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/RLG
NEAR TERM...WTB/RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/RLG
MARINE...WTB/RLG




000
FXUS61 KALY 301029
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
629 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PASSING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY INTO TOMORROW.  TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK...BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 629 AM EDT...A SHALLOW BACKDOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES
TO BE SITUATED RIGHT OVER THE REGION...EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY. THIS FRONT...SEEN BY A SLIGHT WIND SHIFT AND WIGGLE
IN THE PRESSURE FIELD...HAS ALLOWED SOMEWHAT COOLER AND MORE MOIST
AIR TO SEEP INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THAT MOST AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF THE BOUNDARY ARE SEEING
LOW STRATUS CLOUDS. IN AREAS WHERE THERE HAVE BEEN ENOUGH BREAKS
OR THE CLOUDS WERE THIN ENOUGH...SOME FOG HAS DEVELOPED AS WELL.

IN ADDITION...THE BROAD S-SW FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO STREAM PLENTY
OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. AS THE
MORNING GOES ON...THE BULK OF THESE HIGH CLOUDS WILL START TO SHIFT
TO EAST OF THE REGION. ALTHOUGH MANY AREAS WILL START MOSTLY
CLOUDY DUE TO THE LOW STRATUS CLOUDS...SOME BREAKS IN THESE LOW
STRATUS CLOUDS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING WILL BE IN PLACE BY
LATER IN THE MORNING.

ANY BREAKS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...HOWEVER...AS A CLOSED OFF UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES STARTS TO MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION
AND CLOUDS WILL START TO FILL BACK IN DURING THE AFTERNOON.
EVENTUALLY...THIS APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW...AND WHATEVER
REMAINS OF THE LINGERING BACKDOOR BOUNDARY...WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
RAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY FOR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE REGION. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND RELATIVELY WEAK
LARGE SCALE FORCING...SHOWERS WILL ONLY BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
IN COVERAGE AND WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT IN INTENSITY. WILL NOT
INCLUDE THUNDER AT THIS TIME...AS THE BEST INSTABILITY LOOKS TO
REMAIN FURTHER WEST TOWARDS THE CORE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW.

DESPITE 850 HPA TEMPS REMAINING AROUND 10-11 DEGREES C...FREQUENT
CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT THE OVERALL HEATING TODAY. SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S FOR
MANY VALLEY AREAS...WITH HIGHS SLIGHTLY COOLER ACROSS THE HIGH
TERRAIN. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...AND WILL ULTIMATELY
DEPEND ON TERRAIN AND THE PLACEMENT OF THE DECAYING BACKDOOR
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER
OVER THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT AND TOWARDS NJ AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FOR
WEDNESDAY. THE PROXIMITY OF THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
PLENTY OF CLOUDS...AND A LINGERING THREAT FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING A SHOWER WILL BE ACROSS
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA...CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. MIN
TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S TO
NEAR 70 ON WEDNESDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY START TO PULL AWAY TO THE EAST
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE CLOUDS TO
GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST. THERE MAY BE A LINGERING
SHOWER OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...OTHERWISE IT
SHOULD BE RAIN FREE ACROSS THE REGION. LOWS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S...AND HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST AND THE APPROACHING /AND AMPLIFYING/ TROUGH OVER
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.  DESPITE THE TRANQUIL WEATHER
EXPECTED...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY GET TRAPPED BELOW THE INVERSION TO
KEEP MORE CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST.

THE UPSTREAM DEEPENING TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH
FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING.  COMBINATION OF A
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT ORIGINATING FROM
THE GULF COULD PROVIDE THE REGION WITH SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN.  PER
THE ENSEMBLES...QPF/S BETWEEN 0.50-1.00" ARE EXPECTED.  WHILE NO
FLOODING IS EXPECTED...THIS WILL BE MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL AS PORTIONS
OF THE CATSKILLS...HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...TACONICS AND SOUTHERN
LITCHFIELD COUNTY ARE IN `D0` PER THE DROUGHT MONITOR /ABNORMALLY
DRY/.  WE WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD FRIDAY
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

FROPA IS EXPECTED DURING SATURDAY MORNING WITH BRISK AND COOLER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.  IN FACT...THE DEGREE OF COLDER
AIR ADVECTING IN WILL ACTIVATE LAKE ONTARIO CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.  PER
TRAJECTORIES...THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS WILL BE
ACROSS THE DACKS.  THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN BROAD ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION EXTENDING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL KEEP
OUR PATTERN COOL AND UNSETTLED.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL WITH
PRECIPITATION NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COMBINATION OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING
AS BACKDOOR COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY TRACK
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD.  LATER THIS MORNING...THESE CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE
INTO A MORE MVFR THRESHOLDS AND MAY EVEN BREAK TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE MAX DAYTIME HEATING /HENCE THE TEMPO GROUPS/.

CIGS SHOULD REDEVELOP AND/OR CONTINUE INTO MVFR THIS EVENING AND
POSSIBILITY INTO IFR THRESHOLDS.  THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR IFR AT THIS
TIME WILL BE KPSF.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...SHIFTING TO THE EAST OR NORTHEAST
AROUND 5 KT THIS MORNING...THEN EAST-SOUTHEAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AFTER MORNING DEW/PATCHY FOG...SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
TODAY WITH LIGHT SE WINDS OF 5 MPH OR LESS. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO
TO 55 TO 70 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS AROUND...MAINLY FOR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
AREA.

RH VALUES LOOK TO RECOVER TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH
WIDESPREAD DEW FORMATION AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. THERE WILL BE A
CONTINUED THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS
FAR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA.

RH VALUES WILL ONLY DROP TO 60 TO 70 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A FEW ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS
AROUND...MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE REGION.
EAST WINDS WILL BE AROUND 5 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC RELATED ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ALLOW FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS FOR TODAY
THROUGH TOMORROW...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
REGION. ANY RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...AND WILL BE
LIMITED IN AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. THESE RAIN SHOWERS WILL
HAVE LITTLE TO NO EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. MANY RIVERS
AND STREAMS ARE RUNNING ON THE LOW SIDE...AND THIS LOOKS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH MOST AREAS EXPECTED TO SEE
AT LEAST A HALF INCH OF RAIN WILL THAT SYSTEM.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS







000
FXUS61 KALY 301029
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
629 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PASSING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY INTO TOMORROW.  TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK...BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 629 AM EDT...A SHALLOW BACKDOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES
TO BE SITUATED RIGHT OVER THE REGION...EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY. THIS FRONT...SEEN BY A SLIGHT WIND SHIFT AND WIGGLE
IN THE PRESSURE FIELD...HAS ALLOWED SOMEWHAT COOLER AND MORE MOIST
AIR TO SEEP INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THAT MOST AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF THE BOUNDARY ARE SEEING
LOW STRATUS CLOUDS. IN AREAS WHERE THERE HAVE BEEN ENOUGH BREAKS
OR THE CLOUDS WERE THIN ENOUGH...SOME FOG HAS DEVELOPED AS WELL.

IN ADDITION...THE BROAD S-SW FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO STREAM PLENTY
OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. AS THE
MORNING GOES ON...THE BULK OF THESE HIGH CLOUDS WILL START TO SHIFT
TO EAST OF THE REGION. ALTHOUGH MANY AREAS WILL START MOSTLY
CLOUDY DUE TO THE LOW STRATUS CLOUDS...SOME BREAKS IN THESE LOW
STRATUS CLOUDS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING WILL BE IN PLACE BY
LATER IN THE MORNING.

ANY BREAKS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...HOWEVER...AS A CLOSED OFF UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES STARTS TO MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION
AND CLOUDS WILL START TO FILL BACK IN DURING THE AFTERNOON.
EVENTUALLY...THIS APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW...AND WHATEVER
REMAINS OF THE LINGERING BACKDOOR BOUNDARY...WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
RAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY FOR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE REGION. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND RELATIVELY WEAK
LARGE SCALE FORCING...SHOWERS WILL ONLY BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
IN COVERAGE AND WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT IN INTENSITY. WILL NOT
INCLUDE THUNDER AT THIS TIME...AS THE BEST INSTABILITY LOOKS TO
REMAIN FURTHER WEST TOWARDS THE CORE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW.

DESPITE 850 HPA TEMPS REMAINING AROUND 10-11 DEGREES C...FREQUENT
CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT THE OVERALL HEATING TODAY. SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S FOR
MANY VALLEY AREAS...WITH HIGHS SLIGHTLY COOLER ACROSS THE HIGH
TERRAIN. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...AND WILL ULTIMATELY
DEPEND ON TERRAIN AND THE PLACEMENT OF THE DECAYING BACKDOOR
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER
OVER THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT AND TOWARDS NJ AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FOR
WEDNESDAY. THE PROXIMITY OF THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
PLENTY OF CLOUDS...AND A LINGERING THREAT FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING A SHOWER WILL BE ACROSS
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA...CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. MIN
TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S TO
NEAR 70 ON WEDNESDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY START TO PULL AWAY TO THE EAST
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE CLOUDS TO
GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST. THERE MAY BE A LINGERING
SHOWER OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...OTHERWISE IT
SHOULD BE RAIN FREE ACROSS THE REGION. LOWS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S...AND HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST AND THE APPROACHING /AND AMPLIFYING/ TROUGH OVER
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.  DESPITE THE TRANQUIL WEATHER
EXPECTED...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY GET TRAPPED BELOW THE INVERSION TO
KEEP MORE CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST.

THE UPSTREAM DEEPENING TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH
FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING.  COMBINATION OF A
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT ORIGINATING FROM
THE GULF COULD PROVIDE THE REGION WITH SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN.  PER
THE ENSEMBLES...QPF/S BETWEEN 0.50-1.00" ARE EXPECTED.  WHILE NO
FLOODING IS EXPECTED...THIS WILL BE MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL AS PORTIONS
OF THE CATSKILLS...HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...TACONICS AND SOUTHERN
LITCHFIELD COUNTY ARE IN `D0` PER THE DROUGHT MONITOR /ABNORMALLY
DRY/.  WE WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD FRIDAY
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

FROPA IS EXPECTED DURING SATURDAY MORNING WITH BRISK AND COOLER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.  IN FACT...THE DEGREE OF COLDER
AIR ADVECTING IN WILL ACTIVATE LAKE ONTARIO CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.  PER
TRAJECTORIES...THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS WILL BE
ACROSS THE DACKS.  THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN BROAD ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION EXTENDING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL KEEP
OUR PATTERN COOL AND UNSETTLED.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL WITH
PRECIPITATION NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COMBINATION OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING
AS BACKDOOR COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY TRACK
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD.  LATER THIS MORNING...THESE CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE
INTO A MORE MVFR THRESHOLDS AND MAY EVEN BREAK TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE MAX DAYTIME HEATING /HENCE THE TEMPO GROUPS/.

CIGS SHOULD REDEVELOP AND/OR CONTINUE INTO MVFR THIS EVENING AND
POSSIBILITY INTO IFR THRESHOLDS.  THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR IFR AT THIS
TIME WILL BE KPSF.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...SHIFTING TO THE EAST OR NORTHEAST
AROUND 5 KT THIS MORNING...THEN EAST-SOUTHEAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AFTER MORNING DEW/PATCHY FOG...SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
TODAY WITH LIGHT SE WINDS OF 5 MPH OR LESS. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO
TO 55 TO 70 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS AROUND...MAINLY FOR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
AREA.

RH VALUES LOOK TO RECOVER TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH
WIDESPREAD DEW FORMATION AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. THERE WILL BE A
CONTINUED THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS
FAR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA.

RH VALUES WILL ONLY DROP TO 60 TO 70 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A FEW ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS
AROUND...MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE REGION.
EAST WINDS WILL BE AROUND 5 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC RELATED ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ALLOW FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS FOR TODAY
THROUGH TOMORROW...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
REGION. ANY RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...AND WILL BE
LIMITED IN AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. THESE RAIN SHOWERS WILL
HAVE LITTLE TO NO EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. MANY RIVERS
AND STREAMS ARE RUNNING ON THE LOW SIDE...AND THIS LOOKS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH MOST AREAS EXPECTED TO SEE
AT LEAST A HALF INCH OF RAIN WILL THAT SYSTEM.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS







000
FXUS61 KALY 301029
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
629 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PASSING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY INTO TOMORROW.  TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK...BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 629 AM EDT...A SHALLOW BACKDOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES
TO BE SITUATED RIGHT OVER THE REGION...EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY. THIS FRONT...SEEN BY A SLIGHT WIND SHIFT AND WIGGLE
IN THE PRESSURE FIELD...HAS ALLOWED SOMEWHAT COOLER AND MORE MOIST
AIR TO SEEP INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THAT MOST AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF THE BOUNDARY ARE SEEING
LOW STRATUS CLOUDS. IN AREAS WHERE THERE HAVE BEEN ENOUGH BREAKS
OR THE CLOUDS WERE THIN ENOUGH...SOME FOG HAS DEVELOPED AS WELL.

IN ADDITION...THE BROAD S-SW FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO STREAM PLENTY
OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. AS THE
MORNING GOES ON...THE BULK OF THESE HIGH CLOUDS WILL START TO SHIFT
TO EAST OF THE REGION. ALTHOUGH MANY AREAS WILL START MOSTLY
CLOUDY DUE TO THE LOW STRATUS CLOUDS...SOME BREAKS IN THESE LOW
STRATUS CLOUDS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING WILL BE IN PLACE BY
LATER IN THE MORNING.

ANY BREAKS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...HOWEVER...AS A CLOSED OFF UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES STARTS TO MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION
AND CLOUDS WILL START TO FILL BACK IN DURING THE AFTERNOON.
EVENTUALLY...THIS APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW...AND WHATEVER
REMAINS OF THE LINGERING BACKDOOR BOUNDARY...WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
RAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY FOR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE REGION. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND RELATIVELY WEAK
LARGE SCALE FORCING...SHOWERS WILL ONLY BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
IN COVERAGE AND WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT IN INTENSITY. WILL NOT
INCLUDE THUNDER AT THIS TIME...AS THE BEST INSTABILITY LOOKS TO
REMAIN FURTHER WEST TOWARDS THE CORE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW.

DESPITE 850 HPA TEMPS REMAINING AROUND 10-11 DEGREES C...FREQUENT
CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT THE OVERALL HEATING TODAY. SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S FOR
MANY VALLEY AREAS...WITH HIGHS SLIGHTLY COOLER ACROSS THE HIGH
TERRAIN. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...AND WILL ULTIMATELY
DEPEND ON TERRAIN AND THE PLACEMENT OF THE DECAYING BACKDOOR
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER
OVER THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT AND TOWARDS NJ AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FOR
WEDNESDAY. THE PROXIMITY OF THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
PLENTY OF CLOUDS...AND A LINGERING THREAT FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING A SHOWER WILL BE ACROSS
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA...CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. MIN
TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S TO
NEAR 70 ON WEDNESDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY START TO PULL AWAY TO THE EAST
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE CLOUDS TO
GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST. THERE MAY BE A LINGERING
SHOWER OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...OTHERWISE IT
SHOULD BE RAIN FREE ACROSS THE REGION. LOWS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S...AND HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST AND THE APPROACHING /AND AMPLIFYING/ TROUGH OVER
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.  DESPITE THE TRANQUIL WEATHER
EXPECTED...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY GET TRAPPED BELOW THE INVERSION TO
KEEP MORE CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST.

THE UPSTREAM DEEPENING TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH
FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING.  COMBINATION OF A
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT ORIGINATING FROM
THE GULF COULD PROVIDE THE REGION WITH SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN.  PER
THE ENSEMBLES...QPF/S BETWEEN 0.50-1.00" ARE EXPECTED.  WHILE NO
FLOODING IS EXPECTED...THIS WILL BE MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL AS PORTIONS
OF THE CATSKILLS...HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...TACONICS AND SOUTHERN
LITCHFIELD COUNTY ARE IN `D0` PER THE DROUGHT MONITOR /ABNORMALLY
DRY/.  WE WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD FRIDAY
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

FROPA IS EXPECTED DURING SATURDAY MORNING WITH BRISK AND COOLER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.  IN FACT...THE DEGREE OF COLDER
AIR ADVECTING IN WILL ACTIVATE LAKE ONTARIO CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.  PER
TRAJECTORIES...THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS WILL BE
ACROSS THE DACKS.  THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN BROAD ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION EXTENDING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL KEEP
OUR PATTERN COOL AND UNSETTLED.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL WITH
PRECIPITATION NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COMBINATION OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING
AS BACKDOOR COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY TRACK
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD.  LATER THIS MORNING...THESE CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE
INTO A MORE MVFR THRESHOLDS AND MAY EVEN BREAK TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE MAX DAYTIME HEATING /HENCE THE TEMPO GROUPS/.

CIGS SHOULD REDEVELOP AND/OR CONTINUE INTO MVFR THIS EVENING AND
POSSIBILITY INTO IFR THRESHOLDS.  THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR IFR AT THIS
TIME WILL BE KPSF.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...SHIFTING TO THE EAST OR NORTHEAST
AROUND 5 KT THIS MORNING...THEN EAST-SOUTHEAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AFTER MORNING DEW/PATCHY FOG...SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
TODAY WITH LIGHT SE WINDS OF 5 MPH OR LESS. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO
TO 55 TO 70 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS AROUND...MAINLY FOR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
AREA.

RH VALUES LOOK TO RECOVER TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH
WIDESPREAD DEW FORMATION AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. THERE WILL BE A
CONTINUED THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS
FAR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA.

RH VALUES WILL ONLY DROP TO 60 TO 70 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A FEW ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS
AROUND...MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE REGION.
EAST WINDS WILL BE AROUND 5 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC RELATED ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ALLOW FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS FOR TODAY
THROUGH TOMORROW...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
REGION. ANY RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...AND WILL BE
LIMITED IN AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. THESE RAIN SHOWERS WILL
HAVE LITTLE TO NO EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. MANY RIVERS
AND STREAMS ARE RUNNING ON THE LOW SIDE...AND THIS LOOKS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH MOST AREAS EXPECTED TO SEE
AT LEAST A HALF INCH OF RAIN WILL THAT SYSTEM.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS







000
FXUS61 KALY 301029
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
629 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PASSING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY INTO TOMORROW.  TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK...BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 629 AM EDT...A SHALLOW BACKDOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES
TO BE SITUATED RIGHT OVER THE REGION...EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY. THIS FRONT...SEEN BY A SLIGHT WIND SHIFT AND WIGGLE
IN THE PRESSURE FIELD...HAS ALLOWED SOMEWHAT COOLER AND MORE MOIST
AIR TO SEEP INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THAT MOST AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF THE BOUNDARY ARE SEEING
LOW STRATUS CLOUDS. IN AREAS WHERE THERE HAVE BEEN ENOUGH BREAKS
OR THE CLOUDS WERE THIN ENOUGH...SOME FOG HAS DEVELOPED AS WELL.

IN ADDITION...THE BROAD S-SW FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO STREAM PLENTY
OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. AS THE
MORNING GOES ON...THE BULK OF THESE HIGH CLOUDS WILL START TO SHIFT
TO EAST OF THE REGION. ALTHOUGH MANY AREAS WILL START MOSTLY
CLOUDY DUE TO THE LOW STRATUS CLOUDS...SOME BREAKS IN THESE LOW
STRATUS CLOUDS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING WILL BE IN PLACE BY
LATER IN THE MORNING.

ANY BREAKS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...HOWEVER...AS A CLOSED OFF UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES STARTS TO MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION
AND CLOUDS WILL START TO FILL BACK IN DURING THE AFTERNOON.
EVENTUALLY...THIS APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW...AND WHATEVER
REMAINS OF THE LINGERING BACKDOOR BOUNDARY...WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
RAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY FOR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE REGION. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND RELATIVELY WEAK
LARGE SCALE FORCING...SHOWERS WILL ONLY BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
IN COVERAGE AND WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT IN INTENSITY. WILL NOT
INCLUDE THUNDER AT THIS TIME...AS THE BEST INSTABILITY LOOKS TO
REMAIN FURTHER WEST TOWARDS THE CORE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW.

DESPITE 850 HPA TEMPS REMAINING AROUND 10-11 DEGREES C...FREQUENT
CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT THE OVERALL HEATING TODAY. SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S FOR
MANY VALLEY AREAS...WITH HIGHS SLIGHTLY COOLER ACROSS THE HIGH
TERRAIN. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...AND WILL ULTIMATELY
DEPEND ON TERRAIN AND THE PLACEMENT OF THE DECAYING BACKDOOR
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER
OVER THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT AND TOWARDS NJ AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FOR
WEDNESDAY. THE PROXIMITY OF THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
PLENTY OF CLOUDS...AND A LINGERING THREAT FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING A SHOWER WILL BE ACROSS
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA...CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. MIN
TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S TO
NEAR 70 ON WEDNESDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY START TO PULL AWAY TO THE EAST
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE CLOUDS TO
GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST. THERE MAY BE A LINGERING
SHOWER OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...OTHERWISE IT
SHOULD BE RAIN FREE ACROSS THE REGION. LOWS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S...AND HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST AND THE APPROACHING /AND AMPLIFYING/ TROUGH OVER
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.  DESPITE THE TRANQUIL WEATHER
EXPECTED...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY GET TRAPPED BELOW THE INVERSION TO
KEEP MORE CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST.

THE UPSTREAM DEEPENING TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH
FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING.  COMBINATION OF A
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT ORIGINATING FROM
THE GULF COULD PROVIDE THE REGION WITH SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN.  PER
THE ENSEMBLES...QPF/S BETWEEN 0.50-1.00" ARE EXPECTED.  WHILE NO
FLOODING IS EXPECTED...THIS WILL BE MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL AS PORTIONS
OF THE CATSKILLS...HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...TACONICS AND SOUTHERN
LITCHFIELD COUNTY ARE IN `D0` PER THE DROUGHT MONITOR /ABNORMALLY
DRY/.  WE WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD FRIDAY
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

FROPA IS EXPECTED DURING SATURDAY MORNING WITH BRISK AND COOLER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.  IN FACT...THE DEGREE OF COLDER
AIR ADVECTING IN WILL ACTIVATE LAKE ONTARIO CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.  PER
TRAJECTORIES...THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS WILL BE
ACROSS THE DACKS.  THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN BROAD ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION EXTENDING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL KEEP
OUR PATTERN COOL AND UNSETTLED.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL WITH
PRECIPITATION NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COMBINATION OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING
AS BACKDOOR COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY TRACK
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD.  LATER THIS MORNING...THESE CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE
INTO A MORE MVFR THRESHOLDS AND MAY EVEN BREAK TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE MAX DAYTIME HEATING /HENCE THE TEMPO GROUPS/.

CIGS SHOULD REDEVELOP AND/OR CONTINUE INTO MVFR THIS EVENING AND
POSSIBILITY INTO IFR THRESHOLDS.  THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR IFR AT THIS
TIME WILL BE KPSF.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...SHIFTING TO THE EAST OR NORTHEAST
AROUND 5 KT THIS MORNING...THEN EAST-SOUTHEAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AFTER MORNING DEW/PATCHY FOG...SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
TODAY WITH LIGHT SE WINDS OF 5 MPH OR LESS. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO
TO 55 TO 70 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS AROUND...MAINLY FOR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
AREA.

RH VALUES LOOK TO RECOVER TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH
WIDESPREAD DEW FORMATION AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. THERE WILL BE A
CONTINUED THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS
FAR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA.

RH VALUES WILL ONLY DROP TO 60 TO 70 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A FEW ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS
AROUND...MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE REGION.
EAST WINDS WILL BE AROUND 5 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC RELATED ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ALLOW FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS FOR TODAY
THROUGH TOMORROW...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
REGION. ANY RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...AND WILL BE
LIMITED IN AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. THESE RAIN SHOWERS WILL
HAVE LITTLE TO NO EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. MANY RIVERS
AND STREAMS ARE RUNNING ON THE LOW SIDE...AND THIS LOOKS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH MOST AREAS EXPECTED TO SEE
AT LEAST A HALF INCH OF RAIN WILL THAT SYSTEM.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS







000
FXUS61 KOKX 300841
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
441 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THIS MORNING.
MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL THEN AFFECT THE AREA
THROUGH MID WEEK...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE
NORTH THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH ON
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SHORTWAVE AND VORT MAX MOVING THROUGH THE REGION CONTINUED TO
TRIGGER LIGHT RAIN AND SPRINKLES ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LONG
ISLAND. MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR LONG ISLAND AND MOST OF
SOUTHERN CT AS A RESULT.

A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT HAD PUSHED THROUGH MOST OF SRN CT AND ERN
LONG ISLAND...AND WILL CONTINUE MOVE WEST TO SOUTHWEST THIS
MORNING...TURNING LOW LEVEL FLOW IN ITS WAKE TO THE E-NE. AS THE
FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SLOWLY WSW-WARD AND A WEAK UPPER TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS...SHOULD SEE MORE SHOWERS TODAY ESPECIALLY AS THE
COMBO OF DAYTIME SFC HEATING AND MID LEVEL COOLING VIA THE UPPER
TROUGH INCREASES INSTABILITY. NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW SCAPE OF UP TO
500 J/KG...ENOUGH TO HELP GENERATE SHOWERS BUT NOT THUNDER WITH
THE INSTABILITY CONFINED MOSTLY BELOW THE FREEZING LEVEL.
FCST LIKELY POP MAINLY FOR LONG ISLAND...WITH CHANCE ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE AROUND TONIGHT INTO
WED AS AN UPPER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...THEN MOVES ACROSS
ON WED. THE UPPER LOW WILL INTERACT WITH A DEVELOPING INVERTED
TROUGH EXTENDING NW-WARD FROM OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE ON WED...
WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVIER RAIN OF OVER AN INCH NEAR AND
JUST EAST OF WHERE THIS INTERACTION OCCURS...WHICH IS STILL
UNCERTAIN DUE TO ITS MESOSCALE NATURE. THE 00Z NAM/GFS AND 29/12Z
ECMWF WERE POINTING TOWARD SE CT AND ERN LONG ISLAND...WHILE THE
00Z ECMWF/03Z SREF ARE FARTHER EAST.

CLOUDY SKIES AND AND E-NE FLOW OF MARITIME AIR WILL PERSIST...
WITH TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEG ABOVE AVG TODAY...THEN NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVG ON WED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LINGERING CHC FOR PCPN WED EVENING...MAINLY OVER EASTERN AREAS...AS
STRONG UPR LVL SHORTWAVE CLOSES OFF AND PUSHES EAST. 00Z MODEL
SUITE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH RAIN SHOWERS ENDING OVER AREAS WEST
OF NYC BY 06Z...AND THEN EASTERN AREAS BY THURS MORNING. WHILE A
BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOUR IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WED EVENING...THE
TREND WITH THE MODELS HAS TO PUSH IT EAST...MOST LIKELY OCCURRING
OUTSIDE THE CWA. DRY CONDITIONS THEN SETTING UP THRU THURS NIGHT-FRI
WITH SFC HIGH DIPPING SOUTH BETWEEN TWO SFC LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS...AND RIDGING ALOFT.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. SLIGHT DISCREPANCIES WITH 00Z MODELS WITH
GFS THE FASTEST SOLUTION AND ECMWF THE SLOWEST. HOWEVER...IT SHOULD
BE NOTED ALL MODELS ARE NOW TRENDING FASTER FOR THE PROGRESSION.
DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGING...THE MODELS COULD BE
WEAKENING IT TOO QUICKLY AND THUS BRINGING THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
PCPN THROUGH QUICKLY AS WELL. AS SUCH...SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED THE TIMING
OF THE PCPN FRI NIGHT-SAT...BUT DID NOT WANT TO DEVIATE TOO MUCH FROM
PRIOR FORECAST UNTIL A GOOD HANDLE OF THE TREND CAN BE MADE.
CONFIDENCE EXISTS IT WILL RAIN ON SATURDAY...FIGURING OUT THE TIMING
WILL NEED TO BE IRONED OUT IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. DRY WX ON
FRIDAY...THEN BEGAN POPS AFTER 00Z SAT WITH THE PASSING OF A WEAK
SHORTWAVE OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPR LVL LOW. HAVE LIKELY POPS IN BY
12Z SAT MORNING AND THEN TAPER POPS OFF WEST TO EAST SAT NIGHT AS
MAIN FORCING ALOFT SWINGS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST.

SFC HIGH BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT SUNDAY-MONDAY WHILE THE
REGION REMAINS UNDER BROAD TROUGHING. HAVE DRY WX IN FOR SUN-MON
WITH THE NEXT CHC OF PCPN COMING BY MON NIGHT.

NEAR SEASONAL TEMPS IN PLACE THRU SAT. A BRIEF BURST OF CAA BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL SEND TEMPS DOWN A DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR SAT
NIGHT-SUN NIGHT. HOWEVER...RETURN FLOW QUICKLY SETS UP WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN...PUSHING TEMPS BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS SLIDING SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING. AS OF 09Z THE FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR KISP TO JUST NORTH
OF KLGA. THE FRONT SAGS SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND.

IFR CIGS ARE LOCATED BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
IF AND WHEN THE STRATUS WILL SPREAD INTO THE NY METRO. EXPECTING
IMPROVEMENT BY MID MORNING FROM EAST TO WEST...THOUGH UNSURE OF
TIMING DETAILS.

FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT WE`LL BE VFR IN THE AFTERNOON WITH WESTERN
SECTIONS THE LAST TO IMPROVE.

SOME LIGHT RAIN WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE EASTERN SECTIONS
TODAY.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: UNCERTAINTY IN CIG HEIGHT THIS AM WITH IFR
POSSIBLE AROUND 13Z. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN EAST SFC WIND LESS THAN 10
FOR AFTN.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: UNCERTAINTY IN CIG HEIGHT THIS AM. IFR
POSSIBLE AROUND 13Z. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SFC WIND FCST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: UNCERTAINTY IN CIG HEIGHT THIS AM. MARGINAL CIG
MAY NOT MOVE IN AT ALL.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES  SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: UNCERTAINTY IN CIG HEIGHT THIS AM. MARGINAL
CIG MAY NOT MOVE IN AT ALL.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: CONFIDENT IN THE IMPROVEMENT THIS
MORNING...THOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE CEILING FORECAST THIS
MORNING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.LATE T0NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER CIGS POSSIBLE. CHC -SHRA E-NE WINDS
AROUND 10 KT.
.WED...CHC MVFR CIGS/VSBYS/-SHRA. E-NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.THU...CHC MVFR MAINLY AM. NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.FRI...VFR. SE-S WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.SAT...RAIN LIKELY - MVFR OR LOWER IN THE AM. SW WINDS AM BECMG WNW
PM. GUSTS 20-25KT LIKELY LATE.

&&

.MARINE...
INCREASING E-NE FLOW IN THE WAKE OF A BACK DOOR COLD FROPA...AS
THE WATERS BECOME SANDWICHED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
AND DEVELOPING OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE...SHOULD LEAD TO SCA CONDS
TONIGHT INTO WED NIGHT...AND POSSIBLY THU. ISSUED SCA FOR LATE
THIS EVENING THROUGH WED AFTERNOON AS FLOW INCREASES TO 20-25 KT
AND SEAS BUILD TO 3-5 FT BY LATE EVENING...AND TO 4-7 FT ON WED.

GENERALLY EXPECTING SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL NON-OCEAN WATERS
THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND. FOR THE OCEAN WATERS...OCNL GUSTS UP
TO 25 KT WILL BE PSBL WED NIGHT INTO THU...WITH THE WINDS
DIMINISHING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THU. COULD SEE ANOTHER CHC
FOR 25 KT GUSTS RIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT FRI NIGHT-SAT...THEN
SUNDAY WITH CAA OVER THE WATERS. SEAS BUILDING IN RESPONSE TO
INCREASED WINDS MID WEEK...EXPECTING 4-6 FT SEAS THRU THU BEFORE
SUBSIDING WITH THE DIMINISHING WINDS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5-7 FT
FOR THE WEEKEND BEFORE DROPPING TO LESS THAN 5 FT ONCE AGAIN
ON SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN EXPECTED THROUGH TUE NIGHT. A FEW TENTHS OF
AN INCH OF RAINFALL...AND LOCALLY UP TO AN INCH...ARE POSSIBLE
WED-WED NGT...MAINLY SE CT AND ERN LONG ISLAND. BETWEEN ONE HALF
TO ONE INCH OF RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH COLD FROPA
FRI NIGHT-SAT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/SEARS
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...TONGUE
MARINE...GOODMAN/SEARS
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/SEARS






000
FXUS61 KOKX 300841
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
441 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THIS MORNING.
MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL THEN AFFECT THE AREA
THROUGH MID WEEK...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE
NORTH THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH ON
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SHORTWAVE AND VORT MAX MOVING THROUGH THE REGION CONTINUED TO
TRIGGER LIGHT RAIN AND SPRINKLES ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LONG
ISLAND. MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR LONG ISLAND AND MOST OF
SOUTHERN CT AS A RESULT.

A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT HAD PUSHED THROUGH MOST OF SRN CT AND ERN
LONG ISLAND...AND WILL CONTINUE MOVE WEST TO SOUTHWEST THIS
MORNING...TURNING LOW LEVEL FLOW IN ITS WAKE TO THE E-NE. AS THE
FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SLOWLY WSW-WARD AND A WEAK UPPER TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS...SHOULD SEE MORE SHOWERS TODAY ESPECIALLY AS THE
COMBO OF DAYTIME SFC HEATING AND MID LEVEL COOLING VIA THE UPPER
TROUGH INCREASES INSTABILITY. NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW SCAPE OF UP TO
500 J/KG...ENOUGH TO HELP GENERATE SHOWERS BUT NOT THUNDER WITH
THE INSTABILITY CONFINED MOSTLY BELOW THE FREEZING LEVEL.
FCST LIKELY POP MAINLY FOR LONG ISLAND...WITH CHANCE ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE AROUND TONIGHT INTO
WED AS AN UPPER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...THEN MOVES ACROSS
ON WED. THE UPPER LOW WILL INTERACT WITH A DEVELOPING INVERTED
TROUGH EXTENDING NW-WARD FROM OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE ON WED...
WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVIER RAIN OF OVER AN INCH NEAR AND
JUST EAST OF WHERE THIS INTERACTION OCCURS...WHICH IS STILL
UNCERTAIN DUE TO ITS MESOSCALE NATURE. THE 00Z NAM/GFS AND 29/12Z
ECMWF WERE POINTING TOWARD SE CT AND ERN LONG ISLAND...WHILE THE
00Z ECMWF/03Z SREF ARE FARTHER EAST.

CLOUDY SKIES AND AND E-NE FLOW OF MARITIME AIR WILL PERSIST...
WITH TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEG ABOVE AVG TODAY...THEN NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVG ON WED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LINGERING CHC FOR PCPN WED EVENING...MAINLY OVER EASTERN AREAS...AS
STRONG UPR LVL SHORTWAVE CLOSES OFF AND PUSHES EAST. 00Z MODEL
SUITE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH RAIN SHOWERS ENDING OVER AREAS WEST
OF NYC BY 06Z...AND THEN EASTERN AREAS BY THURS MORNING. WHILE A
BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOUR IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WED EVENING...THE
TREND WITH THE MODELS HAS TO PUSH IT EAST...MOST LIKELY OCCURRING
OUTSIDE THE CWA. DRY CONDITIONS THEN SETTING UP THRU THURS NIGHT-FRI
WITH SFC HIGH DIPPING SOUTH BETWEEN TWO SFC LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS...AND RIDGING ALOFT.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. SLIGHT DISCREPANCIES WITH 00Z MODELS WITH
GFS THE FASTEST SOLUTION AND ECMWF THE SLOWEST. HOWEVER...IT SHOULD
BE NOTED ALL MODELS ARE NOW TRENDING FASTER FOR THE PROGRESSION.
DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGING...THE MODELS COULD BE
WEAKENING IT TOO QUICKLY AND THUS BRINGING THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
PCPN THROUGH QUICKLY AS WELL. AS SUCH...SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED THE TIMING
OF THE PCPN FRI NIGHT-SAT...BUT DID NOT WANT TO DEVIATE TOO MUCH FROM
PRIOR FORECAST UNTIL A GOOD HANDLE OF THE TREND CAN BE MADE.
CONFIDENCE EXISTS IT WILL RAIN ON SATURDAY...FIGURING OUT THE TIMING
WILL NEED TO BE IRONED OUT IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. DRY WX ON
FRIDAY...THEN BEGAN POPS AFTER 00Z SAT WITH THE PASSING OF A WEAK
SHORTWAVE OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPR LVL LOW. HAVE LIKELY POPS IN BY
12Z SAT MORNING AND THEN TAPER POPS OFF WEST TO EAST SAT NIGHT AS
MAIN FORCING ALOFT SWINGS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST.

SFC HIGH BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT SUNDAY-MONDAY WHILE THE
REGION REMAINS UNDER BROAD TROUGHING. HAVE DRY WX IN FOR SUN-MON
WITH THE NEXT CHC OF PCPN COMING BY MON NIGHT.

NEAR SEASONAL TEMPS IN PLACE THRU SAT. A BRIEF BURST OF CAA BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL SEND TEMPS DOWN A DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR SAT
NIGHT-SUN NIGHT. HOWEVER...RETURN FLOW QUICKLY SETS UP WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN...PUSHING TEMPS BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS SLIDING SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING. AS OF 09Z THE FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR KISP TO JUST NORTH
OF KLGA. THE FRONT SAGS SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND.

IFR CIGS ARE LOCATED BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
IF AND WHEN THE STRATUS WILL SPREAD INTO THE NY METRO. EXPECTING
IMPROVEMENT BY MID MORNING FROM EAST TO WEST...THOUGH UNSURE OF
TIMING DETAILS.

FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT WE`LL BE VFR IN THE AFTERNOON WITH WESTERN
SECTIONS THE LAST TO IMPROVE.

SOME LIGHT RAIN WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE EASTERN SECTIONS
TODAY.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: UNCERTAINTY IN CIG HEIGHT THIS AM WITH IFR
POSSIBLE AROUND 13Z. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN EAST SFC WIND LESS THAN 10
FOR AFTN.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: UNCERTAINTY IN CIG HEIGHT THIS AM. IFR
POSSIBLE AROUND 13Z. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SFC WIND FCST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: UNCERTAINTY IN CIG HEIGHT THIS AM. MARGINAL CIG
MAY NOT MOVE IN AT ALL.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES  SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: UNCERTAINTY IN CIG HEIGHT THIS AM. MARGINAL
CIG MAY NOT MOVE IN AT ALL.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: CONFIDENT IN THE IMPROVEMENT THIS
MORNING...THOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE CEILING FORECAST THIS
MORNING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.LATE T0NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER CIGS POSSIBLE. CHC -SHRA E-NE WINDS
AROUND 10 KT.
.WED...CHC MVFR CIGS/VSBYS/-SHRA. E-NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.THU...CHC MVFR MAINLY AM. NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.FRI...VFR. SE-S WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.SAT...RAIN LIKELY - MVFR OR LOWER IN THE AM. SW WINDS AM BECMG WNW
PM. GUSTS 20-25KT LIKELY LATE.

&&

.MARINE...
INCREASING E-NE FLOW IN THE WAKE OF A BACK DOOR COLD FROPA...AS
THE WATERS BECOME SANDWICHED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
AND DEVELOPING OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE...SHOULD LEAD TO SCA CONDS
TONIGHT INTO WED NIGHT...AND POSSIBLY THU. ISSUED SCA FOR LATE
THIS EVENING THROUGH WED AFTERNOON AS FLOW INCREASES TO 20-25 KT
AND SEAS BUILD TO 3-5 FT BY LATE EVENING...AND TO 4-7 FT ON WED.

GENERALLY EXPECTING SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL NON-OCEAN WATERS
THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND. FOR THE OCEAN WATERS...OCNL GUSTS UP
TO 25 KT WILL BE PSBL WED NIGHT INTO THU...WITH THE WINDS
DIMINISHING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THU. COULD SEE ANOTHER CHC
FOR 25 KT GUSTS RIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT FRI NIGHT-SAT...THEN
SUNDAY WITH CAA OVER THE WATERS. SEAS BUILDING IN RESPONSE TO
INCREASED WINDS MID WEEK...EXPECTING 4-6 FT SEAS THRU THU BEFORE
SUBSIDING WITH THE DIMINISHING WINDS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5-7 FT
FOR THE WEEKEND BEFORE DROPPING TO LESS THAN 5 FT ONCE AGAIN
ON SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN EXPECTED THROUGH TUE NIGHT. A FEW TENTHS OF
AN INCH OF RAINFALL...AND LOCALLY UP TO AN INCH...ARE POSSIBLE
WED-WED NGT...MAINLY SE CT AND ERN LONG ISLAND. BETWEEN ONE HALF
TO ONE INCH OF RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH COLD FROPA
FRI NIGHT-SAT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/SEARS
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...TONGUE
MARINE...GOODMAN/SEARS
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/SEARS







000
FXUS61 KALY 300802
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
402 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PASSING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY INTO TOMORROW.  TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK...BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 402 AM EDT...A SHALLOW BACKDOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SITUATED
OVER THE REGION...EXTENDING FROM THE ADIRONDACKS SOUTH- SOUTHEAST
TOWARDS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. THIS FRONT HAS ALLOWED SOMEWHAT
COOLER AND MORE MOIST AIR TO SEEP INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST.
AS A RESULT...SOME LOW STRATUS CLOUDS HAVE FORMED IN A FEW
LOCATIONS AREAS. IN ADDITION...THE BROAD S-SW FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES
TO STREAM PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...ESP FOR EASTERN
AREAS. AS THE MORNING GOES ON...THE BULK OF THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL
START TO SHIFT TO EAST OF THE REGION. ALTHOUGH MANY AREAS WILL
START MOSTLY CLOUDY DUE TO THE LOW CLOUDS /AND SOME FOG AS
WELL/...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL BE IN PLACE BY LATER IN THE
MORNING.

ANY BREAKS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...HOWEVER...AS A CLOSED OFF UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES STARTS TO MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION
AND CLOUDS WILL START TO FILL BACK IN DURING THE AFTERNOON.
EVENTUALLY...THIS APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW...AND WHATEVER
REMAINS OF THE LINGERING BACKDOOR BOUNDARY...WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
RAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY FOR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE REGION. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND RELATIVELY WEAK
LARGE SCALE FORCING...SHOWERS WILL ONLY BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
IN COVERAGE AND WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT IN INTENSITY. WILL NOT
INCLUDE THUNDER AT THIS TIME...AS THE BEST INSTABILITY LOOKS TO
REMAIN FURTHER WEST TOWARDS THE CORE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW.

DESPITE 850 HPA TEMPS REMAINING AROUND 10-11 DEGREES C...FREQUENT
CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT THE OVERALL HEATING TODAY. SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S FOR
MANY VALLEY AREAS...WITH HIGHS SLIGHTLY COOLER ACROSS THE HIGH
TERRAIN. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER
OVER THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT AND TOWARDS NJ AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FOR
WEDNESDAY. THE PROXIMITY OF THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
PLENTY OF CLOUDS...AND A LINGERING THREAT FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING A SHOWER WILL BE ACROSS
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA...CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. MIN
TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S TO
NEAR 70 ON WEDNESDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY START TO PULL AWAY TO THE EAST
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE CLOUDS TO
GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST. THERE MAY BE A LINGERING
SHOWER OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...OTHERWISE IT
SHOULD BE RAIN FREE ACROSS THE REGION. LOWS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S...AND HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST AND THE APPROACHING /AND AMPLIFYING/ TROUGH OVER
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.  DESPITE THE TRANQUIL WEATHER
EXPECTED...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY GET TRAPPED BELOW THE INVERSION TO
KEEP MORE CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST.

THE UPSTREAM DEEPENING TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH
FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING.  COMBINATION OF A
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT ORIGINATING FROM
THE GULF COULD PROVIDE THE REGION WITH SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN.  PER
THE ENSEMBLES...QPF/S BETWEEN 0.50-1.00" ARE EXPECTED.  WHILE NO
FLOODING IS EXPECTED...THIS WILL BE MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL AS PORTIONS
OF THE CATSKILLS...HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...TACONICS AND SOUTHERN
LITCHFIELD COUNTY ARE IN `D0` PER THE DROUGHT MONITOR /ABNORMALLY
DRY/.  WE WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD FRIDAY
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

FROPA IS EXPECTED DURING SATURDAY MORNING WITH BRISK AND COOLER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.  IN FACT...THE DEGREE OF COLDER
AIR ADVECTING IN WILL ACTIVATE LAKE ONTARIO CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.  PER
TRAJECTORIES...THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS WILL BE
ACROSS THE DACKS.  THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN BROAD ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION EXTENDING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL KEEP
OUR PATTERN COOL AND UNSETTLED.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL WITH
PRECIPITATION NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WAS PROGRESSING ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS WHERE SKIES WERE CLEAR...STRATUS WAS
RAPIDLY DEVELOPING AS THOSE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS WERE NARROWING.
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE COLD FRONT...CIGS WERE RATHER LOW AS THIS
WILL BE THE MAIN CHALLENGE THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE
REGION.

HIGH CONFIDENCE OF MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT KPSF THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD DUE TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
NEARBY.  FOR KGFL...RESTRICTIONS WILL BE OCCASIONAL TO ABRUPT AS
THIS TAF LOCATION HAS BEEN ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS.  HOWEVER...AS THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MIGRATES INTO
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR CIGS AND VIS WILL
OCCUR.  FOR KALB-KPOU...IT WILL TAKE ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE
THE MVFR/IFR STRATUS DECK ARRIVES...HENCE THE TEMPO GROUPS AT THIS
TIME.

THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KPSF WHERE ELEVATION SHOULD KEEP FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS WELL INTO MVFR THRESHOLDS.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...SHIFTING TO THE EAST OR NORTHEAST
AROUND 5 KT OVERNIGHT...THEN EAST-SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AFTER MORNING DEW/PATCHY FOG...SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
TODAY WITH LIGHT SE WINDS OF 5 MPH OR LESS. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO
TO 55 TO 70 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS AROUND...MAINLY FOR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
AREA.

RH VALUES LOOK TO RECOVER TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH
WIDESPREAD DEW FORMATION AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. THERE WILL BE A
CONTINUED THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS
FAR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA.

RH VALUES WILL ONLY DROP TO 60 TO 70 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A FEW ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS
AROUND...MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE REGION.
EAST WINDS WILL BE AROUND 5 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC RELATED ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ALLOW FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS FOR TODAY
THROUGH TOMORROW...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
REGION. ANY RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...AND WILL BE
LIMITED IN AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. THESE RAIN SHOWERS WILL
HAVE LITTLE TO NO EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. MANY RIVERS
AND STREAMS ARE RUNNING ON THE LOW SIDE...AND THIS LOOKS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH MOST AREAS EXPECTED TO SEE
AT LEAST A HALF INCH OF RAIN WILL THAT SYSTEM.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS







000
FXUS61 KALY 300802
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
402 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PASSING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY INTO TOMORROW.  TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK...BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 402 AM EDT...A SHALLOW BACKDOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SITUATED
OVER THE REGION...EXTENDING FROM THE ADIRONDACKS SOUTH- SOUTHEAST
TOWARDS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. THIS FRONT HAS ALLOWED SOMEWHAT
COOLER AND MORE MOIST AIR TO SEEP INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST.
AS A RESULT...SOME LOW STRATUS CLOUDS HAVE FORMED IN A FEW
LOCATIONS AREAS. IN ADDITION...THE BROAD S-SW FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES
TO STREAM PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...ESP FOR EASTERN
AREAS. AS THE MORNING GOES ON...THE BULK OF THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL
START TO SHIFT TO EAST OF THE REGION. ALTHOUGH MANY AREAS WILL
START MOSTLY CLOUDY DUE TO THE LOW CLOUDS /AND SOME FOG AS
WELL/...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL BE IN PLACE BY LATER IN THE
MORNING.

ANY BREAKS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...HOWEVER...AS A CLOSED OFF UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES STARTS TO MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION
AND CLOUDS WILL START TO FILL BACK IN DURING THE AFTERNOON.
EVENTUALLY...THIS APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW...AND WHATEVER
REMAINS OF THE LINGERING BACKDOOR BOUNDARY...WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
RAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY FOR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE REGION. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND RELATIVELY WEAK
LARGE SCALE FORCING...SHOWERS WILL ONLY BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
IN COVERAGE AND WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT IN INTENSITY. WILL NOT
INCLUDE THUNDER AT THIS TIME...AS THE BEST INSTABILITY LOOKS TO
REMAIN FURTHER WEST TOWARDS THE CORE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW.

DESPITE 850 HPA TEMPS REMAINING AROUND 10-11 DEGREES C...FREQUENT
CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT THE OVERALL HEATING TODAY. SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S FOR
MANY VALLEY AREAS...WITH HIGHS SLIGHTLY COOLER ACROSS THE HIGH
TERRAIN. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER
OVER THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT AND TOWARDS NJ AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FOR
WEDNESDAY. THE PROXIMITY OF THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
PLENTY OF CLOUDS...AND A LINGERING THREAT FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING A SHOWER WILL BE ACROSS
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA...CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. MIN
TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S TO
NEAR 70 ON WEDNESDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY START TO PULL AWAY TO THE EAST
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE CLOUDS TO
GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST. THERE MAY BE A LINGERING
SHOWER OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...OTHERWISE IT
SHOULD BE RAIN FREE ACROSS THE REGION. LOWS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S...AND HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST AND THE APPROACHING /AND AMPLIFYING/ TROUGH OVER
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.  DESPITE THE TRANQUIL WEATHER
EXPECTED...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY GET TRAPPED BELOW THE INVERSION TO
KEEP MORE CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST.

THE UPSTREAM DEEPENING TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH
FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING.  COMBINATION OF A
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT ORIGINATING FROM
THE GULF COULD PROVIDE THE REGION WITH SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN.  PER
THE ENSEMBLES...QPF/S BETWEEN 0.50-1.00" ARE EXPECTED.  WHILE NO
FLOODING IS EXPECTED...THIS WILL BE MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL AS PORTIONS
OF THE CATSKILLS...HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...TACONICS AND SOUTHERN
LITCHFIELD COUNTY ARE IN `D0` PER THE DROUGHT MONITOR /ABNORMALLY
DRY/.  WE WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD FRIDAY
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

FROPA IS EXPECTED DURING SATURDAY MORNING WITH BRISK AND COOLER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.  IN FACT...THE DEGREE OF COLDER
AIR ADVECTING IN WILL ACTIVATE LAKE ONTARIO CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.  PER
TRAJECTORIES...THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS WILL BE
ACROSS THE DACKS.  THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN BROAD ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION EXTENDING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL KEEP
OUR PATTERN COOL AND UNSETTLED.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL WITH
PRECIPITATION NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WAS PROGRESSING ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS WHERE SKIES WERE CLEAR...STRATUS WAS
RAPIDLY DEVELOPING AS THOSE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS WERE NARROWING.
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE COLD FRONT...CIGS WERE RATHER LOW AS THIS
WILL BE THE MAIN CHALLENGE THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE
REGION.

HIGH CONFIDENCE OF MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT KPSF THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD DUE TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
NEARBY.  FOR KGFL...RESTRICTIONS WILL BE OCCASIONAL TO ABRUPT AS
THIS TAF LOCATION HAS BEEN ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS.  HOWEVER...AS THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MIGRATES INTO
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR CIGS AND VIS WILL
OCCUR.  FOR KALB-KPOU...IT WILL TAKE ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE
THE MVFR/IFR STRATUS DECK ARRIVES...HENCE THE TEMPO GROUPS AT THIS
TIME.

THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KPSF WHERE ELEVATION SHOULD KEEP FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS WELL INTO MVFR THRESHOLDS.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...SHIFTING TO THE EAST OR NORTHEAST
AROUND 5 KT OVERNIGHT...THEN EAST-SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AFTER MORNING DEW/PATCHY FOG...SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
TODAY WITH LIGHT SE WINDS OF 5 MPH OR LESS. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO
TO 55 TO 70 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS AROUND...MAINLY FOR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
AREA.

RH VALUES LOOK TO RECOVER TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH
WIDESPREAD DEW FORMATION AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. THERE WILL BE A
CONTINUED THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS
FAR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA.

RH VALUES WILL ONLY DROP TO 60 TO 70 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A FEW ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS
AROUND...MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE REGION.
EAST WINDS WILL BE AROUND 5 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC RELATED ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ALLOW FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS FOR TODAY
THROUGH TOMORROW...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
REGION. ANY RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...AND WILL BE
LIMITED IN AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. THESE RAIN SHOWERS WILL
HAVE LITTLE TO NO EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. MANY RIVERS
AND STREAMS ARE RUNNING ON THE LOW SIDE...AND THIS LOOKS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH MOST AREAS EXPECTED TO SEE
AT LEAST A HALF INCH OF RAIN WILL THAT SYSTEM.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS








000
FXUS61 KBOX 300758
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
358 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK AS
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE. ONE OR TWO WEAK WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE REGION. AN
APPROACHING FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO AFFECT
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ALLOWING FOR AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS...
FOG...AND DRIZZLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
STARTS TO MIX A BIT THOUGH...DRIZZLE SHOULD COME TO AN END.  A FEW
STEADIER SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS LATER TODAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND.  EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...EXPECTING ANOTHER NIGHT MUCH LIKE THE LAST WITH LOW
PRESSURE WELL SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET.  AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS...
FOG...AND DRIZZLE ARE LIKELY ONCE AGAIN WITH VERY MOIST AIR IN THE
LOW LEVELS.  MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS RHODE
ISLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AS THE MID LEVEL LOW PUSHES
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE FAIRLY MILD
THANKS TO THE LOW LEVEL HUMIDITY WITH MOST LOCATIONS REMAINING IN
THE 50S.

WEDNESDAY...BEST SHOT OF SHOWERS AS MID LEVEL LOW MOVES OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THESE WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED MAINLY TO
SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND WHERE THE BEST LIFT
EXISTS.  OTHERWISE...MORE OF THE SAME LOW CLOUDS...DRIZZLE...AND
FOG. OVERCAST SKIES AND WET WEATHER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

BIG PICTURE... ALASKA SHORTWAVE DIGS OVER THE WESTERN USA/CANADA AND
KICKS THE ESTABLISHED UPPER TROUGH EAST TO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
BRINGS A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE EASTERN USA WITH BELOW
NORMAL HEIGHTS WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN USA.

EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW...A CLOSED LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT MOVES OFF THROUGH THE MARITIMES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

THE DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY... UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. LINGERING INSTABILITY UNDER THE COLD CORE
SHOULD SUPPORT LINGERING SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT TAPERING OFF
THURSDAY MORNING. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW PLENTY OF MOISTURE BELOW 600
MB THROUGH THURSDAY MIDDAY FOLLOWED BY A DRYING TREND IN THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER ARE EQUIV TO 850 MB
TEMPS OF 2-5C...SUPPORTING MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. MOIST
GROUND AND COOLING TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW PATCHY FOG TO
FORM ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR.

FRIDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OVER NEW ENGLAND. CROSS
SECTIONS OF RH SHOW INCREASING CIRRUS-LEVEL MOISTURE BUT DRY THROUGH
MOST OF THE COLUMN...INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TOWARD EVENING.
OVERALL...EXPECT A FAIR WEATHER DAY WITH LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WIND. TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER WOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN
THE MID AND UPPER 60S. THE EAST FLOW MAY KEEP COOLER TEMPS NEAR THE
EAST MASS COAST.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY... SHORTWAVE DRIVING AROUND THE DEEPENING
EASTERN TROUGH PUSHES A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
FRIDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY. THE SHORTWAVE AND
THE SUPPORTING JET ENERGY SHOW SIGNS OF LIFTING THROUGH EASTERN NY
AND VERMONT...BUT WITH POTENTIAL TO DIRECTLY AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. ANOTHER CONCERN WOULD BE THE DRY PATTERN WE HAVE BEEN IN
FOR SEVERAL WEEKS...THESE PATTERNS TEND TO MAINTAIN THEMSELVES EVEN
WHEN FORECAST DATA SAYS OTHERWISE. AND A DAY 5 FORECAST IS RATHER
FAR OUT TO SHOW GREAT CERTAINTY. WE WILL MAINTAINING CONTINUITY WITH
POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND WITH ADJOINING OFFICES...BUT OUR
ACTUAL CONFIDENCE IS 15-20 PERCENT LOWER.

SUNDAY-MONDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS UP FROM THE SOUTH AND SHOULD
PROVIDE DRY WEATHER MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. THE UPPER TROUGH CENTERED
TO OUR WEST WILL BRING LOWER HEIGHTS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL
MEAN COOLER TEMPS. TEMPERATURES HERE IN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD BE A
LITTLE COOLER THAN NORMAL BUT EXPECT THE COLDEST TEMPS TO REMAIN
WEST OF NEW ENGLAND WITH THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH.

A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE TROUGH ON MONDAY AND SOUTHERLY WINDS
AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL BRING HIGHER MOISTURE AIR OUR
WAY...GENERATING SOME CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SHOWERS. THESE
CLOUDS/SHOWERS SHOULD HOLD UNTIL THE SHORTWAVE GETS
CLOSER...PROBABLY MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING.

THROUGH 12Z...IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION IN
LOW CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG/DRIZZLE.

TODAY...IFR CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST FIRST TO
MVFR THEN TO VFR ACROSS THE WESTERN TERMINALS.  SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
PARTICULARLY ACROSS EASTERN MA/RI WHERE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

TONIGHT...MORE OF THE SAME WITH IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN LOW
CLOUDS...FOG...AND DRIZZLE.

WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVE ONCE AGAIN AT LEAST TEMPORARILY IN
THE WEST. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY ACROSS EASTERN MA/RI.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...CIGS/VSBYS AT MVFR/IFR IN LINGERING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  PATCHY IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY...VFR.

SATURDAY...CONDITIONS DIMINISHING TO MVFR IN SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH.  SOUTH WINDS LEAD THE COLD FRONT...WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO WEST AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH WED.

PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN BUILDING SEAS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.  INCREASED WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE BY 20 PERCENT TO ACCOUNT
FOR A GENERAL LOW BIAS IN THIS TYPE OF SCENARIO. SCA CONTINUES FOR
THE NORTHEASTERN WATERS THROUGH THIS MORNING.  ALSO ISSUED SCA FOR
SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN OUTER WATERS FOR TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NORTHEAST WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH GUSTS NEAR 20
KNOTS. WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTH SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...THEN
SHIFT WEST AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WIND GUSTS 20 TO 25
KNOTS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY. SEAS OF 5 TO 8 FEET LINGER ON THE
EXPOSED WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.  EXPECT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY ON AT LEAST THE EXPOSED WATERS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

MAY EXPERIENCE A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 1.5 FEET DURING MIDWEEK BUT
THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE NOT ALL THAT HIGH.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ250-
     251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/RLG
NEAR TERM...RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/RLG
MARINE...WTB/RLG



000
FXUS61 KBOX 300758
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
358 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK AS
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE. ONE OR TWO WEAK WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE REGION. AN
APPROACHING FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO AFFECT
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ALLOWING FOR AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS...
FOG...AND DRIZZLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
STARTS TO MIX A BIT THOUGH...DRIZZLE SHOULD COME TO AN END.  A FEW
STEADIER SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS LATER TODAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND.  EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...EXPECTING ANOTHER NIGHT MUCH LIKE THE LAST WITH LOW
PRESSURE WELL SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET.  AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS...
FOG...AND DRIZZLE ARE LIKELY ONCE AGAIN WITH VERY MOIST AIR IN THE
LOW LEVELS.  MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS RHODE
ISLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AS THE MID LEVEL LOW PUSHES
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE FAIRLY MILD
THANKS TO THE LOW LEVEL HUMIDITY WITH MOST LOCATIONS REMAINING IN
THE 50S.

WEDNESDAY...BEST SHOT OF SHOWERS AS MID LEVEL LOW MOVES OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THESE WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED MAINLY TO
SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND WHERE THE BEST LIFT
EXISTS.  OTHERWISE...MORE OF THE SAME LOW CLOUDS...DRIZZLE...AND
FOG. OVERCAST SKIES AND WET WEATHER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

BIG PICTURE... ALASKA SHORTWAVE DIGS OVER THE WESTERN USA/CANADA AND
KICKS THE ESTABLISHED UPPER TROUGH EAST TO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
BRINGS A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE EASTERN USA WITH BELOW
NORMAL HEIGHTS WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN USA.

EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW...A CLOSED LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT MOVES OFF THROUGH THE MARITIMES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

THE DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY... UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. LINGERING INSTABILITY UNDER THE COLD CORE
SHOULD SUPPORT LINGERING SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT TAPERING OFF
THURSDAY MORNING. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW PLENTY OF MOISTURE BELOW 600
MB THROUGH THURSDAY MIDDAY FOLLOWED BY A DRYING TREND IN THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER ARE EQUIV TO 850 MB
TEMPS OF 2-5C...SUPPORTING MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. MOIST
GROUND AND COOLING TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW PATCHY FOG TO
FORM ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR.

FRIDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OVER NEW ENGLAND. CROSS
SECTIONS OF RH SHOW INCREASING CIRRUS-LEVEL MOISTURE BUT DRY THROUGH
MOST OF THE COLUMN...INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TOWARD EVENING.
OVERALL...EXPECT A FAIR WEATHER DAY WITH LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WIND. TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER WOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN
THE MID AND UPPER 60S. THE EAST FLOW MAY KEEP COOLER TEMPS NEAR THE
EAST MASS COAST.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY... SHORTWAVE DRIVING AROUND THE DEEPENING
EASTERN TROUGH PUSHES A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
FRIDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY. THE SHORTWAVE AND
THE SUPPORTING JET ENERGY SHOW SIGNS OF LIFTING THROUGH EASTERN NY
AND VERMONT...BUT WITH POTENTIAL TO DIRECTLY AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. ANOTHER CONCERN WOULD BE THE DRY PATTERN WE HAVE BEEN IN
FOR SEVERAL WEEKS...THESE PATTERNS TEND TO MAINTAIN THEMSELVES EVEN
WHEN FORECAST DATA SAYS OTHERWISE. AND A DAY 5 FORECAST IS RATHER
FAR OUT TO SHOW GREAT CERTAINTY. WE WILL MAINTAINING CONTINUITY WITH
POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND WITH ADJOINING OFFICES...BUT OUR
ACTUAL CONFIDENCE IS 15-20 PERCENT LOWER.

SUNDAY-MONDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS UP FROM THE SOUTH AND SHOULD
PROVIDE DRY WEATHER MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. THE UPPER TROUGH CENTERED
TO OUR WEST WILL BRING LOWER HEIGHTS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL
MEAN COOLER TEMPS. TEMPERATURES HERE IN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD BE A
LITTLE COOLER THAN NORMAL BUT EXPECT THE COLDEST TEMPS TO REMAIN
WEST OF NEW ENGLAND WITH THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH.

A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE TROUGH ON MONDAY AND SOUTHERLY WINDS
AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL BRING HIGHER MOISTURE AIR OUR
WAY...GENERATING SOME CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SHOWERS. THESE
CLOUDS/SHOWERS SHOULD HOLD UNTIL THE SHORTWAVE GETS
CLOSER...PROBABLY MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING.

THROUGH 12Z...IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION IN
LOW CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG/DRIZZLE.

TODAY...IFR CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST FIRST TO
MVFR THEN TO VFR ACROSS THE WESTERN TERMINALS.  SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
PARTICULARLY ACROSS EASTERN MA/RI WHERE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

TONIGHT...MORE OF THE SAME WITH IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN LOW
CLOUDS...FOG...AND DRIZZLE.

WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVE ONCE AGAIN AT LEAST TEMPORARILY IN
THE WEST. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY ACROSS EASTERN MA/RI.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...CIGS/VSBYS AT MVFR/IFR IN LINGERING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  PATCHY IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY...VFR.

SATURDAY...CONDITIONS DIMINISHING TO MVFR IN SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH.  SOUTH WINDS LEAD THE COLD FRONT...WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO WEST AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH WED.

PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN BUILDING SEAS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.  INCREASED WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE BY 20 PERCENT TO ACCOUNT
FOR A GENERAL LOW BIAS IN THIS TYPE OF SCENARIO. SCA CONTINUES FOR
THE NORTHEASTERN WATERS THROUGH THIS MORNING.  ALSO ISSUED SCA FOR
SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN OUTER WATERS FOR TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NORTHEAST WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH GUSTS NEAR 20
KNOTS. WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTH SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...THEN
SHIFT WEST AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WIND GUSTS 20 TO 25
KNOTS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY. SEAS OF 5 TO 8 FEET LINGER ON THE
EXPOSED WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.  EXPECT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY ON AT LEAST THE EXPOSED WATERS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

MAY EXPERIENCE A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 1.5 FEET DURING MIDWEEK BUT
THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE NOT ALL THAT HIGH.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ250-
     251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/RLG
NEAR TERM...RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/RLG
MARINE...WTB/RLG




000
FXUS61 KBOX 300750
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
350 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK AS
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE. ONE OR TWO WEAK WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE REGION. AN
APPROACHING FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO AFFECT
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ALLOWING FOR AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS...
FOG...AND DRIZZLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
STARTS TO MIX A BIT THOUGH...DRIZZLE SHOULD COME TO AN END.  A FEW
STEADIER SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS LATER TODAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND.  EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...EXPECTING ANOTHER NIGHT MUCH LIKE THE LAST WITH LOW
PRESSURE WELL SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET.  AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS...
FOG...AND DRIZZLE ARE LIKELY ONCE AGAIN WITH VERY MOIST AIR IN THE
LOW LEVELS.  MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS RHODE
ISLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AS THE MID LEVEL LOW PUSHES
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE FAIRLY MILD
THANKS TO THE LOW LEVEL HUMIDITY WITH MOST LOCATIONS REMAINING IN
THE 50S.

WEDNESDAY...BEST SHOT OF SHOWERS AS MID LEVEL LOW MOVES OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THESE WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED MAINLY TO
SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND WHERE THE BEST LIFT
EXISTS.  OTHERWISE...MORE OF THE SAME LOW CLOUDS...DRIZZLE...AND
FOG. OVERCAST SKIES AND WET WEATHER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* NORTHEAST WINDS AND CLOUDS THIS WEEK WILL KEEP TEMPS NEAR NORMAL
* CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE ON WED AND THU
* COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SATURDAY WILL BRING PRECIP TO THE REGION

OVERVIEW...

FALL IS HERE TO STAY FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS 12Z GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. OVERALL THE 12Z
GUIDANCE IS IN GENERALLY AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
WITH ISSUES DOWN AT THE SURFACE. THE TREND FOR THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE
IS THAT THE EC IS MORE AMPLIFIED WHERE THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
IN THE OVERALL PATTERN. THE CMC IS ALSO LESS AMPLIFIED THEN THE EC
WHERE THE UKMET IS THE IN BETWEEN MODEL. BECAUSE OF THE
DIFFERENCES IN GUIDANCE DID A MODEL BLEND AS WELL AS HPC FORECAST
FOR THE EXTENDED.

HAVE A HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT AVERAGE TEMPS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
REGION THIS WEEK. LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE PRECIP POTENTIAL FOR WED AND
THURSDAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIP WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY BUT
STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND WHO WILL SEE THE HIGHER
QPF.

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CUT OFF RIGHT OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
DURING THIS TIME FRAME...KEEPING A SURFACE TROUGH/NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW OVER THE REGION. THIS LOW WILL BRING A FEW SHORTWAVES ACROSS
THE REGION INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR SCT SHOWERS. EASTERN MA
HAS THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE ACCUMULATING PRECIP ESPECIALLY ON WED
INTO WED NIGHT. ANTICIPATE DRIZZLE AND FOG FOR THURSDAY ESP IN
EASTERN AREAS AS UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO MOVE OFFSHORE AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE INCHES EASTWARD INTO THE REGION. THUNDER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED ON WED AS THE MARINE LAYER WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE
STABLE AND GUIDANCE IS NOT SHOWING ANY INSTABILITY AT THIS TIME.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIMEFRAME.

FRIDAY...
QUICK MOVING RIDGE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR RETURN FLOW AND TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S. DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL AS WE WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS.

WEEKEND...
STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY AND IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL PUSH
A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION AND BRING SOME MUCH NEEDED
RAINFALL. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO THE DETAILS OF
THIS SYSTEM AS THE EC SEEMS TO BE OUT OF PHASE WITH THE MAJORITY
OF THE GUIDANCE. THEREFORE TRENDED MORE TOWARDS THE 12Z GFS AND
ENSEMBLES FOR THIS PORTION. NOTE THAT IT APPEARS THAT THE ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM DOES GET STRETCHED AND IS NOT AS
ROBUST AS IT IS ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK. THE OTHER POINT IS THAT
THE RIDGE ON FRIDAY...HOW STRONG WILL IT GET AND HOW MUCH DRY AIR
WILL LINGER AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION ON SATURDAY. RIGHT
NOW PLAN ON KEEPING CHC POPS TO THE SOUTH AND LIKELY POPS TO THE
NORTH...CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY. HOPEFULLY GUIDANCE WILL
LINE UP WITHIN THE COMING DAYS.

TRENDING WITH THE GFS/CMC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON SUNDAY
BUT STILL COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS LINGER EARLY SUN MORNING
ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. CAA BEHIND THE FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPS
BELOW AVERAGE WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING.

THROUGH 12Z...IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION IN
LOW CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG/DRIZZLE.

TODAY...IFR CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST FIRST TO
MVFR THEN TO VFR ACROSS THE WESTERN TERMINALS.  SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
PARTICULARLY ACROSS EASTERN MA/RI WHERE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

TONIGHT...MORE OF THE SAME WITH IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN LOW
CLOUDS...FOG...AND DRIZZLE.

WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVE ONCE AGAIN AT LEAST TEMPORARILY IN
THE WEST. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY ACROSS EASTERN MA/RI.

KBOX...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PATCHY IFR CIGS/VSBYS
POSSIBLE ACROSS EAST COASTAL SECTIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAY SEE LEFTOVER MVFR
CIG/VSBYS EARLY THU ALONG THE E COAST BUT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
FROM WEST TO EAST ON THURSDAY TO VFR. FRIDAY WILL BE VFR.

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR TO LOCAL
IFR IN A LINE OF SHOWERS MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGHOUT THE
DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH WED.

PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN BUILDING SEAS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.  INCREASED WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE BY 20 PERCENT TO ACCOUNT
FOR A GENERAL LOW BIAS IN THIS TYPE OF SCENARIO. SCA CONTINUES FOR
THE NORTHEASTERN WATERS THROUGH THIS MORNING.  ALSO ISSUED SCA FOR
SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN OUTER WATERS FOR TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE WATERS
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. COMBINED WITH EASTERLY SWELL WILL HELP
BUILD SEAS UP TO 5-7 FEET. SCA WILL BE NEEDED.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE WATERS ON FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR
BOTH SEAS AND WINDS TO RELAX. LINGERING SEAS OF 5 OR 6 FEET WILL KEEP
THE SCA IN PLACE FOR THE OUTER WATERS.

APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY WILL ALLOW FOR RETURN FLOW AND
INCREASE IN GUSTS...CLOSE TO 30 KTS. SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD AHEAD OF
AND BEHIND THE FRONT...NEAR 7 FEET. SCA WILL BE NEEDED.

MAY EXPERIENCE A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 1.5 FEET DURING MIDWEEK BUT
THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE NOT ALL THAT HIGH.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ250-
     251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/RLG
NEAR TERM...RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/RLG
MARINE...WTB/RLG




000
FXUS61 KBOX 300750
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
350 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK AS
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE. ONE OR TWO WEAK WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE REGION. AN
APPROACHING FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO AFFECT
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ALLOWING FOR AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS...
FOG...AND DRIZZLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
STARTS TO MIX A BIT THOUGH...DRIZZLE SHOULD COME TO AN END.  A FEW
STEADIER SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS LATER TODAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND.  EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...EXPECTING ANOTHER NIGHT MUCH LIKE THE LAST WITH LOW
PRESSURE WELL SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET.  AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS...
FOG...AND DRIZZLE ARE LIKELY ONCE AGAIN WITH VERY MOIST AIR IN THE
LOW LEVELS.  MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS RHODE
ISLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AS THE MID LEVEL LOW PUSHES
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE FAIRLY MILD
THANKS TO THE LOW LEVEL HUMIDITY WITH MOST LOCATIONS REMAINING IN
THE 50S.

WEDNESDAY...BEST SHOT OF SHOWERS AS MID LEVEL LOW MOVES OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THESE WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED MAINLY TO
SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND WHERE THE BEST LIFT
EXISTS.  OTHERWISE...MORE OF THE SAME LOW CLOUDS...DRIZZLE...AND
FOG. OVERCAST SKIES AND WET WEATHER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* NORTHEAST WINDS AND CLOUDS THIS WEEK WILL KEEP TEMPS NEAR NORMAL
* CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE ON WED AND THU
* COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SATURDAY WILL BRING PRECIP TO THE REGION

OVERVIEW...

FALL IS HERE TO STAY FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS 12Z GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. OVERALL THE 12Z
GUIDANCE IS IN GENERALLY AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
WITH ISSUES DOWN AT THE SURFACE. THE TREND FOR THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE
IS THAT THE EC IS MORE AMPLIFIED WHERE THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
IN THE OVERALL PATTERN. THE CMC IS ALSO LESS AMPLIFIED THEN THE EC
WHERE THE UKMET IS THE IN BETWEEN MODEL. BECAUSE OF THE
DIFFERENCES IN GUIDANCE DID A MODEL BLEND AS WELL AS HPC FORECAST
FOR THE EXTENDED.

HAVE A HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT AVERAGE TEMPS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
REGION THIS WEEK. LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE PRECIP POTENTIAL FOR WED AND
THURSDAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIP WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY BUT
STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND WHO WILL SEE THE HIGHER
QPF.

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CUT OFF RIGHT OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
DURING THIS TIME FRAME...KEEPING A SURFACE TROUGH/NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW OVER THE REGION. THIS LOW WILL BRING A FEW SHORTWAVES ACROSS
THE REGION INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR SCT SHOWERS. EASTERN MA
HAS THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE ACCUMULATING PRECIP ESPECIALLY ON WED
INTO WED NIGHT. ANTICIPATE DRIZZLE AND FOG FOR THURSDAY ESP IN
EASTERN AREAS AS UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO MOVE OFFSHORE AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE INCHES EASTWARD INTO THE REGION. THUNDER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED ON WED AS THE MARINE LAYER WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE
STABLE AND GUIDANCE IS NOT SHOWING ANY INSTABILITY AT THIS TIME.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIMEFRAME.

FRIDAY...
QUICK MOVING RIDGE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR RETURN FLOW AND TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S. DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL AS WE WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS.

WEEKEND...
STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY AND IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL PUSH
A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION AND BRING SOME MUCH NEEDED
RAINFALL. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO THE DETAILS OF
THIS SYSTEM AS THE EC SEEMS TO BE OUT OF PHASE WITH THE MAJORITY
OF THE GUIDANCE. THEREFORE TRENDED MORE TOWARDS THE 12Z GFS AND
ENSEMBLES FOR THIS PORTION. NOTE THAT IT APPEARS THAT THE ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM DOES GET STRETCHED AND IS NOT AS
ROBUST AS IT IS ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK. THE OTHER POINT IS THAT
THE RIDGE ON FRIDAY...HOW STRONG WILL IT GET AND HOW MUCH DRY AIR
WILL LINGER AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION ON SATURDAY. RIGHT
NOW PLAN ON KEEPING CHC POPS TO THE SOUTH AND LIKELY POPS TO THE
NORTH...CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY. HOPEFULLY GUIDANCE WILL
LINE UP WITHIN THE COMING DAYS.

TRENDING WITH THE GFS/CMC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON SUNDAY
BUT STILL COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS LINGER EARLY SUN MORNING
ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. CAA BEHIND THE FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPS
BELOW AVERAGE WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING.

THROUGH 12Z...IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION IN
LOW CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG/DRIZZLE.

TODAY...IFR CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST FIRST TO
MVFR THEN TO VFR ACROSS THE WESTERN TERMINALS.  SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
PARTICULARLY ACROSS EASTERN MA/RI WHERE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

TONIGHT...MORE OF THE SAME WITH IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN LOW
CLOUDS...FOG...AND DRIZZLE.

WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVE ONCE AGAIN AT LEAST TEMPORARILY IN
THE WEST. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY ACROSS EASTERN MA/RI.

KBOX...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PATCHY IFR CIGS/VSBYS
POSSIBLE ACROSS EAST COASTAL SECTIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAY SEE LEFTOVER MVFR
CIG/VSBYS EARLY THU ALONG THE E COAST BUT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
FROM WEST TO EAST ON THURSDAY TO VFR. FRIDAY WILL BE VFR.

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR TO LOCAL
IFR IN A LINE OF SHOWERS MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGHOUT THE
DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH WED.

PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN BUILDING SEAS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.  INCREASED WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE BY 20 PERCENT TO ACCOUNT
FOR A GENERAL LOW BIAS IN THIS TYPE OF SCENARIO. SCA CONTINUES FOR
THE NORTHEASTERN WATERS THROUGH THIS MORNING.  ALSO ISSUED SCA FOR
SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN OUTER WATERS FOR TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE WATERS
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. COMBINED WITH EASTERLY SWELL WILL HELP
BUILD SEAS UP TO 5-7 FEET. SCA WILL BE NEEDED.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE WATERS ON FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR
BOTH SEAS AND WINDS TO RELAX. LINGERING SEAS OF 5 OR 6 FEET WILL KEEP
THE SCA IN PLACE FOR THE OUTER WATERS.

APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY WILL ALLOW FOR RETURN FLOW AND
INCREASE IN GUSTS...CLOSE TO 30 KTS. SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD AHEAD OF
AND BEHIND THE FRONT...NEAR 7 FEET. SCA WILL BE NEEDED.

MAY EXPERIENCE A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 1.5 FEET DURING MIDWEEK BUT
THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE NOT ALL THAT HIGH.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ250-
     251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/RLG
NEAR TERM...RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/RLG
MARINE...WTB/RLG



000
FXUS61 KOKX 300742
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
342 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THIS MORNING.
MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL THEN AFFECT THE AREA
THROUGH MID WEEK...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE
NORTH THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH ON
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SHORTWAVE AND VORT MAX MOVING THROUGH THE REGION CONTINUED TO
TRIGGER LIGHT RAIN AND SPRINKLES ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LONG
ISLAND. MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR LONG ISLAND AND MOST OF
SOUTHERN CT AS A RESULT.

A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT HAD PUSHED THROUGH MOST OF SRN CT AND ERN
LONG ISLAND...AND WILL CONTINUE MOVE WEST TO SOUTHWEST THIS
MORNING...TURNING LOW LEVEL FLOW IN ITS WAKE TO THE E-NE. AS THE
FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SLOWLY WSW-WARD AND A WEAK UPPER TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS...SHOULD SEE MORE SHOWERS TODAY ESPECIALLY AS THE
COMBO OF DAYTIME SFC HEATING AND MID LEVEL COOLING VIA THE UPPER
TROUGH INCREASES INSTABILITY. NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW SCAPE OF UP TO
500 J/KG...ENOUGH TO HELP GENERATE SHOWERS BUT NOT THUNDER WITH
THE INSTABILITY CONFINED MOSTLY BELOW THE FREEZING LEVEL.
FCST LIKELY POP MAINLY FOR LONG ISLAND...WITH CHANCE ELSEWHERE.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE AROUND TONIGHT INTO
WED AS AN UPPER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...THEN MOVES ACROSS
ON WED. THE UPPER LOW WILL INTERACT WITH A DEVELOPING INVERTED
TROUGH EXTENDING NW-WARD FROM OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE ON WED...
WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVIER RAIN OF OVER AN INCH NEAR AND
JUST EAST OF WHERE THIS INTERACTION OCCURS...WHICH IS STILL
UNCERTAIN DUE TO ITS MESOSCALE NATURE. THE 00Z NAM/GFS AND 29/12Z
ECMWF WERE POINTING TOWARD SE CT AND ERN LONG ISLAND...WHILE THE
00Z ECMWF/03Z SREF ARE FARTHER EAST.

CLOUDY SKIES AND AND E-NE FLOW OF MARITIME AIR WILL PERSIST...
WITH TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEG ABOVE AVG TODAY...THEN NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVG ON WED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LINGERING CHC FOR PCPN WED EVENING...MAINLY OVER EASTERN AREAS...AS
STRONG UPR LVL SHORTWAVE CLOSES OFF AND PUSHES EAST. 00Z MODEL
SUITE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH RAIN SHOWERS ENDING OVER AREAS WEST
OF NYC BY 06Z...AND THEN EASTERN AREAS BY THURS MORNING. WHILE A
BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOUR IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WED EVENING...THE
TREND WITH THE MODELS HAS TO PUSH IT EAST...MOST LIKELY OCCURRING
OUTSIDE THE CWA. DRY CONDITIONS THEN SETTING UP THRU THURS NIGHT-FRI
WITH SFC HIGH DIPPING SOUTH BETWEEN TWO SFC LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS...AND RIDGING ALOFT.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. SLIGHT DISCREPANCIES WITH 00Z MODELS WITH
GFS THE FASTEST SOLUTION AND ECMWF THE SLOWEST. HOWEVER...IT SHOULD
BE NOTED ALL MODELS ARE NOW TRENDING FASTER FOR THE PROGRESSION.
DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGING...THE MODELS COULD BE
WEAKENING IT TOO QUICKLY AND THUS BRINGING THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
PCPN THROUGH QUICKLY AS WELL. AS SUCH...SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED THE TIMING
OF THE PCPN FRI NIGHT-SAT...BUT DID NOT WANT TO DEVIATE TOO MUCH FROM
PRIOR FORECAST UNTIL A GOOD HANDLE OF THE TREND CAN BE MADE.
CONFIDENCE EXISTS IT WILL RAIN ON SATURDAY...FIGURING OUT THE TIMING
WILL NEED TO BE IRONED OUT IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. DRY WX ON
FRIDAY...THEN BEGAN POPS AFTER 00Z SAT WITH THE PASSING OF A WEAK
SHORTWAVE OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPR LVL LOW. HAVE LIKELY POPS IN BY
12Z SAT MORNING AND THEN TAPER POPS OFF WEST TO EAST SAT NIGHT AS
MAIN FORCING ALOFT SWINGS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST.

SFC HIGH BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT SUNDAY-MONDAY WHILE THE
REGION REMAINS UNDER BROAD TROUGHING. HAVE DRY WX IN FOR SUN-MON
WITH THE NEXT CHC OF PCPN COMING BY MON NIGHT.

NEAR SEASONAL TEMPS IN PLACE THRU SAT. A BRIEF BURST OF CAA BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL SEND TEMPS DOWN A DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR SAT
NIGHT-SUN NIGHT. HOWEVER...RETURN FLOW QUICKLY SETS UP WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN...PUSHING TEMPS BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS SLIDING SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING. AS OF 06Z THE FRONT WAS JUST NORTH OF THE NEW YORK METRO.
THE FRONT SAGS SOUTH OF THE REGION BY DAYBREAK...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY.

AREAS OF IFR ARE OCCURRING BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT DO NOT EXPECT
THESE TO SPREAD INTO THE IMMEDIATE NY METRO. EXPECT THE IFR AREAS
TO DISSIPATE TO VFR AROUND OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE.

CONFIDENCE IN LOW ON MARGINAL VFR CIGS THIS AFTN. THESE MAY NOT
DEVELOP. SOME LIGHT RA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS EASTERN SECTIONS TODAY.

SFC WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ARE GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KT
FORM THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS SHOULD VEER SLIGHTLY TO ESE
IN THE AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.LATE T0NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER CIGS POSSIBLE. CHC -SHRA E-NE WINDS
AROUND 10 KT.
.WED...CHC MVFR CIGS/VSBYS/-SHRA. E-NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.THU...CHC MVFR MAINLY AM. NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.FRI...VFR. SE-S WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.SAT...RAIN LIKELY - MVFR OR LOWER IN THE AM. SW WINDS AM BECMG WNW
PM. GUSTS 20-25KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
INCREASING E-NE FLOW IN THE WAKE OF A BACK DOOR COLD FROPA...AS
THE WATERS BECOME SANDWICHED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
AND DEVELOPING OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE...SHOULD LEAD TO SCA CONDS
TONIGHT INTO WED NIGHT...AND POSSIBLY THU. ISSUED SCA FOR LATE
THIS EVENING THROUGH WED AFTERNOON AS FLOW INCREASES TO 20-25 KT
AND SEAS BUILD TO 3-5 FT BY LATE EVENING...AND TO 4-7 FT ON WED.

GENERALLY EXPECTING SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL NON-OCEAN WATERS
THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND. FOR THE OCEAN WATERS...OCNL GUSTS UP
TO 25 KT WILL BE PSBL WED NIGHT INTO THU...WITH THE WINDS
DIMINISHING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THU. COULD SEE ANOTHER CHC
FOR 25 KT GUSTS RIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT FRI NIGHT-SAT...THEN
SUNDAY WITH CAA OVER THE WATERS. SEAS BUILDING IN RESPONSE TO
INCREASED WINDS MID WEEK...EXPECTING 4-6 FT SEAS THRU THU BEFORE
SUBSIDING WITH THE DIMINISHING WINDS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5-7 FT
FOR THE WEEKEND BEFORE DROPPING TO LESS THAN 5 FT ONCE AGAIN
ON SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN EXPECTED THROUGH TUE NIGHT. A FEW TENTHS OF
AN INCH OF RAINFALL...AND LOCALLY UP TO AN INCH...ARE POSSIBLE
WED-WED NGT...MAINLY SE CT AND ERN LONG ISLAND. BETWEEN ONE HALF
TO ONE INCH OF RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH COLD FROPA
FRI NIGHT-SAT.


&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/SEARS
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...TONGUE
MARINE...GOODMAN/SEARS
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/SEARS





000
FXUS61 KOKX 300742
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
342 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THIS MORNING.
MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL THEN AFFECT THE AREA
THROUGH MID WEEK...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE
NORTH THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH ON
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SHORTWAVE AND VORT MAX MOVING THROUGH THE REGION CONTINUED TO
TRIGGER LIGHT RAIN AND SPRINKLES ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LONG
ISLAND. MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR LONG ISLAND AND MOST OF
SOUTHERN CT AS A RESULT.

A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT HAD PUSHED THROUGH MOST OF SRN CT AND ERN
LONG ISLAND...AND WILL CONTINUE MOVE WEST TO SOUTHWEST THIS
MORNING...TURNING LOW LEVEL FLOW IN ITS WAKE TO THE E-NE. AS THE
FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SLOWLY WSW-WARD AND A WEAK UPPER TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS...SHOULD SEE MORE SHOWERS TODAY ESPECIALLY AS THE
COMBO OF DAYTIME SFC HEATING AND MID LEVEL COOLING VIA THE UPPER
TROUGH INCREASES INSTABILITY. NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW SCAPE OF UP TO
500 J/KG...ENOUGH TO HELP GENERATE SHOWERS BUT NOT THUNDER WITH
THE INSTABILITY CONFINED MOSTLY BELOW THE FREEZING LEVEL.
FCST LIKELY POP MAINLY FOR LONG ISLAND...WITH CHANCE ELSEWHERE.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE AROUND TONIGHT INTO
WED AS AN UPPER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...THEN MOVES ACROSS
ON WED. THE UPPER LOW WILL INTERACT WITH A DEVELOPING INVERTED
TROUGH EXTENDING NW-WARD FROM OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE ON WED...
WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVIER RAIN OF OVER AN INCH NEAR AND
JUST EAST OF WHERE THIS INTERACTION OCCURS...WHICH IS STILL
UNCERTAIN DUE TO ITS MESOSCALE NATURE. THE 00Z NAM/GFS AND 29/12Z
ECMWF WERE POINTING TOWARD SE CT AND ERN LONG ISLAND...WHILE THE
00Z ECMWF/03Z SREF ARE FARTHER EAST.

CLOUDY SKIES AND AND E-NE FLOW OF MARITIME AIR WILL PERSIST...
WITH TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEG ABOVE AVG TODAY...THEN NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVG ON WED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LINGERING CHC FOR PCPN WED EVENING...MAINLY OVER EASTERN AREAS...AS
STRONG UPR LVL SHORTWAVE CLOSES OFF AND PUSHES EAST. 00Z MODEL
SUITE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH RAIN SHOWERS ENDING OVER AREAS WEST
OF NYC BY 06Z...AND THEN EASTERN AREAS BY THURS MORNING. WHILE A
BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOUR IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WED EVENING...THE
TREND WITH THE MODELS HAS TO PUSH IT EAST...MOST LIKELY OCCURRING
OUTSIDE THE CWA. DRY CONDITIONS THEN SETTING UP THRU THURS NIGHT-FRI
WITH SFC HIGH DIPPING SOUTH BETWEEN TWO SFC LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS...AND RIDGING ALOFT.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. SLIGHT DISCREPANCIES WITH 00Z MODELS WITH
GFS THE FASTEST SOLUTION AND ECMWF THE SLOWEST. HOWEVER...IT SHOULD
BE NOTED ALL MODELS ARE NOW TRENDING FASTER FOR THE PROGRESSION.
DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGING...THE MODELS COULD BE
WEAKENING IT TOO QUICKLY AND THUS BRINGING THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
PCPN THROUGH QUICKLY AS WELL. AS SUCH...SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED THE TIMING
OF THE PCPN FRI NIGHT-SAT...BUT DID NOT WANT TO DEVIATE TOO MUCH FROM
PRIOR FORECAST UNTIL A GOOD HANDLE OF THE TREND CAN BE MADE.
CONFIDENCE EXISTS IT WILL RAIN ON SATURDAY...FIGURING OUT THE TIMING
WILL NEED TO BE IRONED OUT IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. DRY WX ON
FRIDAY...THEN BEGAN POPS AFTER 00Z SAT WITH THE PASSING OF A WEAK
SHORTWAVE OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPR LVL LOW. HAVE LIKELY POPS IN BY
12Z SAT MORNING AND THEN TAPER POPS OFF WEST TO EAST SAT NIGHT AS
MAIN FORCING ALOFT SWINGS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST.

SFC HIGH BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT SUNDAY-MONDAY WHILE THE
REGION REMAINS UNDER BROAD TROUGHING. HAVE DRY WX IN FOR SUN-MON
WITH THE NEXT CHC OF PCPN COMING BY MON NIGHT.

NEAR SEASONAL TEMPS IN PLACE THRU SAT. A BRIEF BURST OF CAA BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL SEND TEMPS DOWN A DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR SAT
NIGHT-SUN NIGHT. HOWEVER...RETURN FLOW QUICKLY SETS UP WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN...PUSHING TEMPS BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS SLIDING SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING. AS OF 06Z THE FRONT WAS JUST NORTH OF THE NEW YORK METRO.
THE FRONT SAGS SOUTH OF THE REGION BY DAYBREAK...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY.

AREAS OF IFR ARE OCCURRING BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT DO NOT EXPECT
THESE TO SPREAD INTO THE IMMEDIATE NY METRO. EXPECT THE IFR AREAS
TO DISSIPATE TO VFR AROUND OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE.

CONFIDENCE IN LOW ON MARGINAL VFR CIGS THIS AFTN. THESE MAY NOT
DEVELOP. SOME LIGHT RA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS EASTERN SECTIONS TODAY.

SFC WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ARE GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KT
FORM THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS SHOULD VEER SLIGHTLY TO ESE
IN THE AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.LATE T0NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER CIGS POSSIBLE. CHC -SHRA E-NE WINDS
AROUND 10 KT.
.WED...CHC MVFR CIGS/VSBYS/-SHRA. E-NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.THU...CHC MVFR MAINLY AM. NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.FRI...VFR. SE-S WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.SAT...RAIN LIKELY - MVFR OR LOWER IN THE AM. SW WINDS AM BECMG WNW
PM. GUSTS 20-25KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
INCREASING E-NE FLOW IN THE WAKE OF A BACK DOOR COLD FROPA...AS
THE WATERS BECOME SANDWICHED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
AND DEVELOPING OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE...SHOULD LEAD TO SCA CONDS
TONIGHT INTO WED NIGHT...AND POSSIBLY THU. ISSUED SCA FOR LATE
THIS EVENING THROUGH WED AFTERNOON AS FLOW INCREASES TO 20-25 KT
AND SEAS BUILD TO 3-5 FT BY LATE EVENING...AND TO 4-7 FT ON WED.

GENERALLY EXPECTING SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL NON-OCEAN WATERS
THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND. FOR THE OCEAN WATERS...OCNL GUSTS UP
TO 25 KT WILL BE PSBL WED NIGHT INTO THU...WITH THE WINDS
DIMINISHING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THU. COULD SEE ANOTHER CHC
FOR 25 KT GUSTS RIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT FRI NIGHT-SAT...THEN
SUNDAY WITH CAA OVER THE WATERS. SEAS BUILDING IN RESPONSE TO
INCREASED WINDS MID WEEK...EXPECTING 4-6 FT SEAS THRU THU BEFORE
SUBSIDING WITH THE DIMINISHING WINDS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5-7 FT
FOR THE WEEKEND BEFORE DROPPING TO LESS THAN 5 FT ONCE AGAIN
ON SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN EXPECTED THROUGH TUE NIGHT. A FEW TENTHS OF
AN INCH OF RAINFALL...AND LOCALLY UP TO AN INCH...ARE POSSIBLE
WED-WED NGT...MAINLY SE CT AND ERN LONG ISLAND. BETWEEN ONE HALF
TO ONE INCH OF RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH COLD FROPA
FRI NIGHT-SAT.


&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/SEARS
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...TONGUE
MARINE...GOODMAN/SEARS
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/SEARS





000
FXUS61 KOKX 300742
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
342 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THIS MORNING.
MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL THEN AFFECT THE AREA
THROUGH MID WEEK...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE
NORTH THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH ON
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SHORTWAVE AND VORT MAX MOVING THROUGH THE REGION CONTINUED TO
TRIGGER LIGHT RAIN AND SPRINKLES ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LONG
ISLAND. MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR LONG ISLAND AND MOST OF
SOUTHERN CT AS A RESULT.

A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT HAD PUSHED THROUGH MOST OF SRN CT AND ERN
LONG ISLAND...AND WILL CONTINUE MOVE WEST TO SOUTHWEST THIS
MORNING...TURNING LOW LEVEL FLOW IN ITS WAKE TO THE E-NE. AS THE
FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SLOWLY WSW-WARD AND A WEAK UPPER TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS...SHOULD SEE MORE SHOWERS TODAY ESPECIALLY AS THE
COMBO OF DAYTIME SFC HEATING AND MID LEVEL COOLING VIA THE UPPER
TROUGH INCREASES INSTABILITY. NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW SCAPE OF UP TO
500 J/KG...ENOUGH TO HELP GENERATE SHOWERS BUT NOT THUNDER WITH
THE INSTABILITY CONFINED MOSTLY BELOW THE FREEZING LEVEL.
FCST LIKELY POP MAINLY FOR LONG ISLAND...WITH CHANCE ELSEWHERE.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE AROUND TONIGHT INTO
WED AS AN UPPER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...THEN MOVES ACROSS
ON WED. THE UPPER LOW WILL INTERACT WITH A DEVELOPING INVERTED
TROUGH EXTENDING NW-WARD FROM OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE ON WED...
WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVIER RAIN OF OVER AN INCH NEAR AND
JUST EAST OF WHERE THIS INTERACTION OCCURS...WHICH IS STILL
UNCERTAIN DUE TO ITS MESOSCALE NATURE. THE 00Z NAM/GFS AND 29/12Z
ECMWF WERE POINTING TOWARD SE CT AND ERN LONG ISLAND...WHILE THE
00Z ECMWF/03Z SREF ARE FARTHER EAST.

CLOUDY SKIES AND AND E-NE FLOW OF MARITIME AIR WILL PERSIST...
WITH TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEG ABOVE AVG TODAY...THEN NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVG ON WED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LINGERING CHC FOR PCPN WED EVENING...MAINLY OVER EASTERN AREAS...AS
STRONG UPR LVL SHORTWAVE CLOSES OFF AND PUSHES EAST. 00Z MODEL
SUITE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH RAIN SHOWERS ENDING OVER AREAS WEST
OF NYC BY 06Z...AND THEN EASTERN AREAS BY THURS MORNING. WHILE A
BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOUR IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WED EVENING...THE
TREND WITH THE MODELS HAS TO PUSH IT EAST...MOST LIKELY OCCURRING
OUTSIDE THE CWA. DRY CONDITIONS THEN SETTING UP THRU THURS NIGHT-FRI
WITH SFC HIGH DIPPING SOUTH BETWEEN TWO SFC LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS...AND RIDGING ALOFT.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. SLIGHT DISCREPANCIES WITH 00Z MODELS WITH
GFS THE FASTEST SOLUTION AND ECMWF THE SLOWEST. HOWEVER...IT SHOULD
BE NOTED ALL MODELS ARE NOW TRENDING FASTER FOR THE PROGRESSION.
DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGING...THE MODELS COULD BE
WEAKENING IT TOO QUICKLY AND THUS BRINGING THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
PCPN THROUGH QUICKLY AS WELL. AS SUCH...SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED THE TIMING
OF THE PCPN FRI NIGHT-SAT...BUT DID NOT WANT TO DEVIATE TOO MUCH FROM
PRIOR FORECAST UNTIL A GOOD HANDLE OF THE TREND CAN BE MADE.
CONFIDENCE EXISTS IT WILL RAIN ON SATURDAY...FIGURING OUT THE TIMING
WILL NEED TO BE IRONED OUT IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. DRY WX ON
FRIDAY...THEN BEGAN POPS AFTER 00Z SAT WITH THE PASSING OF A WEAK
SHORTWAVE OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPR LVL LOW. HAVE LIKELY POPS IN BY
12Z SAT MORNING AND THEN TAPER POPS OFF WEST TO EAST SAT NIGHT AS
MAIN FORCING ALOFT SWINGS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST.

SFC HIGH BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT SUNDAY-MONDAY WHILE THE
REGION REMAINS UNDER BROAD TROUGHING. HAVE DRY WX IN FOR SUN-MON
WITH THE NEXT CHC OF PCPN COMING BY MON NIGHT.

NEAR SEASONAL TEMPS IN PLACE THRU SAT. A BRIEF BURST OF CAA BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL SEND TEMPS DOWN A DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR SAT
NIGHT-SUN NIGHT. HOWEVER...RETURN FLOW QUICKLY SETS UP WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN...PUSHING TEMPS BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS SLIDING SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING. AS OF 06Z THE FRONT WAS JUST NORTH OF THE NEW YORK METRO.
THE FRONT SAGS SOUTH OF THE REGION BY DAYBREAK...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY.

AREAS OF IFR ARE OCCURRING BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT DO NOT EXPECT
THESE TO SPREAD INTO THE IMMEDIATE NY METRO. EXPECT THE IFR AREAS
TO DISSIPATE TO VFR AROUND OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE.

CONFIDENCE IN LOW ON MARGINAL VFR CIGS THIS AFTN. THESE MAY NOT
DEVELOP. SOME LIGHT RA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS EASTERN SECTIONS TODAY.

SFC WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ARE GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KT
FORM THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS SHOULD VEER SLIGHTLY TO ESE
IN THE AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.LATE T0NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER CIGS POSSIBLE. CHC -SHRA E-NE WINDS
AROUND 10 KT.
.WED...CHC MVFR CIGS/VSBYS/-SHRA. E-NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.THU...CHC MVFR MAINLY AM. NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.FRI...VFR. SE-S WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.SAT...RAIN LIKELY - MVFR OR LOWER IN THE AM. SW WINDS AM BECMG WNW
PM. GUSTS 20-25KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
INCREASING E-NE FLOW IN THE WAKE OF A BACK DOOR COLD FROPA...AS
THE WATERS BECOME SANDWICHED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
AND DEVELOPING OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE...SHOULD LEAD TO SCA CONDS
TONIGHT INTO WED NIGHT...AND POSSIBLY THU. ISSUED SCA FOR LATE
THIS EVENING THROUGH WED AFTERNOON AS FLOW INCREASES TO 20-25 KT
AND SEAS BUILD TO 3-5 FT BY LATE EVENING...AND TO 4-7 FT ON WED.

GENERALLY EXPECTING SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL NON-OCEAN WATERS
THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND. FOR THE OCEAN WATERS...OCNL GUSTS UP
TO 25 KT WILL BE PSBL WED NIGHT INTO THU...WITH THE WINDS
DIMINISHING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THU. COULD SEE ANOTHER CHC
FOR 25 KT GUSTS RIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT FRI NIGHT-SAT...THEN
SUNDAY WITH CAA OVER THE WATERS. SEAS BUILDING IN RESPONSE TO
INCREASED WINDS MID WEEK...EXPECTING 4-6 FT SEAS THRU THU BEFORE
SUBSIDING WITH THE DIMINISHING WINDS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5-7 FT
FOR THE WEEKEND BEFORE DROPPING TO LESS THAN 5 FT ONCE AGAIN
ON SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN EXPECTED THROUGH TUE NIGHT. A FEW TENTHS OF
AN INCH OF RAINFALL...AND LOCALLY UP TO AN INCH...ARE POSSIBLE
WED-WED NGT...MAINLY SE CT AND ERN LONG ISLAND. BETWEEN ONE HALF
TO ONE INCH OF RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH COLD FROPA
FRI NIGHT-SAT.


&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/SEARS
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...TONGUE
MARINE...GOODMAN/SEARS
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/SEARS





000
FXUS61 KOKX 300742
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
342 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THIS MORNING.
MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL THEN AFFECT THE AREA
THROUGH MID WEEK...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE
NORTH THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH ON
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SHORTWAVE AND VORT MAX MOVING THROUGH THE REGION CONTINUED TO
TRIGGER LIGHT RAIN AND SPRINKLES ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LONG
ISLAND. MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR LONG ISLAND AND MOST OF
SOUTHERN CT AS A RESULT.

A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT HAD PUSHED THROUGH MOST OF SRN CT AND ERN
LONG ISLAND...AND WILL CONTINUE MOVE WEST TO SOUTHWEST THIS
MORNING...TURNING LOW LEVEL FLOW IN ITS WAKE TO THE E-NE. AS THE
FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SLOWLY WSW-WARD AND A WEAK UPPER TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS...SHOULD SEE MORE SHOWERS TODAY ESPECIALLY AS THE
COMBO OF DAYTIME SFC HEATING AND MID LEVEL COOLING VIA THE UPPER
TROUGH INCREASES INSTABILITY. NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW SCAPE OF UP TO
500 J/KG...ENOUGH TO HELP GENERATE SHOWERS BUT NOT THUNDER WITH
THE INSTABILITY CONFINED MOSTLY BELOW THE FREEZING LEVEL.
FCST LIKELY POP MAINLY FOR LONG ISLAND...WITH CHANCE ELSEWHERE.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE AROUND TONIGHT INTO
WED AS AN UPPER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...THEN MOVES ACROSS
ON WED. THE UPPER LOW WILL INTERACT WITH A DEVELOPING INVERTED
TROUGH EXTENDING NW-WARD FROM OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE ON WED...
WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVIER RAIN OF OVER AN INCH NEAR AND
JUST EAST OF WHERE THIS INTERACTION OCCURS...WHICH IS STILL
UNCERTAIN DUE TO ITS MESOSCALE NATURE. THE 00Z NAM/GFS AND 29/12Z
ECMWF WERE POINTING TOWARD SE CT AND ERN LONG ISLAND...WHILE THE
00Z ECMWF/03Z SREF ARE FARTHER EAST.

CLOUDY SKIES AND AND E-NE FLOW OF MARITIME AIR WILL PERSIST...
WITH TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEG ABOVE AVG TODAY...THEN NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVG ON WED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LINGERING CHC FOR PCPN WED EVENING...MAINLY OVER EASTERN AREAS...AS
STRONG UPR LVL SHORTWAVE CLOSES OFF AND PUSHES EAST. 00Z MODEL
SUITE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH RAIN SHOWERS ENDING OVER AREAS WEST
OF NYC BY 06Z...AND THEN EASTERN AREAS BY THURS MORNING. WHILE A
BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOUR IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WED EVENING...THE
TREND WITH THE MODELS HAS TO PUSH IT EAST...MOST LIKELY OCCURRING
OUTSIDE THE CWA. DRY CONDITIONS THEN SETTING UP THRU THURS NIGHT-FRI
WITH SFC HIGH DIPPING SOUTH BETWEEN TWO SFC LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS...AND RIDGING ALOFT.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. SLIGHT DISCREPANCIES WITH 00Z MODELS WITH
GFS THE FASTEST SOLUTION AND ECMWF THE SLOWEST. HOWEVER...IT SHOULD
BE NOTED ALL MODELS ARE NOW TRENDING FASTER FOR THE PROGRESSION.
DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGING...THE MODELS COULD BE
WEAKENING IT TOO QUICKLY AND THUS BRINGING THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
PCPN THROUGH QUICKLY AS WELL. AS SUCH...SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED THE TIMING
OF THE PCPN FRI NIGHT-SAT...BUT DID NOT WANT TO DEVIATE TOO MUCH FROM
PRIOR FORECAST UNTIL A GOOD HANDLE OF THE TREND CAN BE MADE.
CONFIDENCE EXISTS IT WILL RAIN ON SATURDAY...FIGURING OUT THE TIMING
WILL NEED TO BE IRONED OUT IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. DRY WX ON
FRIDAY...THEN BEGAN POPS AFTER 00Z SAT WITH THE PASSING OF A WEAK
SHORTWAVE OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPR LVL LOW. HAVE LIKELY POPS IN BY
12Z SAT MORNING AND THEN TAPER POPS OFF WEST TO EAST SAT NIGHT AS
MAIN FORCING ALOFT SWINGS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST.

SFC HIGH BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT SUNDAY-MONDAY WHILE THE
REGION REMAINS UNDER BROAD TROUGHING. HAVE DRY WX IN FOR SUN-MON
WITH THE NEXT CHC OF PCPN COMING BY MON NIGHT.

NEAR SEASONAL TEMPS IN PLACE THRU SAT. A BRIEF BURST OF CAA BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL SEND TEMPS DOWN A DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR SAT
NIGHT-SUN NIGHT. HOWEVER...RETURN FLOW QUICKLY SETS UP WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN...PUSHING TEMPS BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS SLIDING SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING. AS OF 06Z THE FRONT WAS JUST NORTH OF THE NEW YORK METRO.
THE FRONT SAGS SOUTH OF THE REGION BY DAYBREAK...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY.

AREAS OF IFR ARE OCCURRING BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT DO NOT EXPECT
THESE TO SPREAD INTO THE IMMEDIATE NY METRO. EXPECT THE IFR AREAS
TO DISSIPATE TO VFR AROUND OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE.

CONFIDENCE IN LOW ON MARGINAL VFR CIGS THIS AFTN. THESE MAY NOT
DEVELOP. SOME LIGHT RA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS EASTERN SECTIONS TODAY.

SFC WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ARE GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KT
FORM THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS SHOULD VEER SLIGHTLY TO ESE
IN THE AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.LATE T0NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER CIGS POSSIBLE. CHC -SHRA E-NE WINDS
AROUND 10 KT.
.WED...CHC MVFR CIGS/VSBYS/-SHRA. E-NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.THU...CHC MVFR MAINLY AM. NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.FRI...VFR. SE-S WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.SAT...RAIN LIKELY - MVFR OR LOWER IN THE AM. SW WINDS AM BECMG WNW
PM. GUSTS 20-25KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
INCREASING E-NE FLOW IN THE WAKE OF A BACK DOOR COLD FROPA...AS
THE WATERS BECOME SANDWICHED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
AND DEVELOPING OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE...SHOULD LEAD TO SCA CONDS
TONIGHT INTO WED NIGHT...AND POSSIBLY THU. ISSUED SCA FOR LATE
THIS EVENING THROUGH WED AFTERNOON AS FLOW INCREASES TO 20-25 KT
AND SEAS BUILD TO 3-5 FT BY LATE EVENING...AND TO 4-7 FT ON WED.

GENERALLY EXPECTING SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL NON-OCEAN WATERS
THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND. FOR THE OCEAN WATERS...OCNL GUSTS UP
TO 25 KT WILL BE PSBL WED NIGHT INTO THU...WITH THE WINDS
DIMINISHING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THU. COULD SEE ANOTHER CHC
FOR 25 KT GUSTS RIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT FRI NIGHT-SAT...THEN
SUNDAY WITH CAA OVER THE WATERS. SEAS BUILDING IN RESPONSE TO
INCREASED WINDS MID WEEK...EXPECTING 4-6 FT SEAS THRU THU BEFORE
SUBSIDING WITH THE DIMINISHING WINDS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5-7 FT
FOR THE WEEKEND BEFORE DROPPING TO LESS THAN 5 FT ONCE AGAIN
ON SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN EXPECTED THROUGH TUE NIGHT. A FEW TENTHS OF
AN INCH OF RAINFALL...AND LOCALLY UP TO AN INCH...ARE POSSIBLE
WED-WED NGT...MAINLY SE CT AND ERN LONG ISLAND. BETWEEN ONE HALF
TO ONE INCH OF RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH COLD FROPA
FRI NIGHT-SAT.


&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/SEARS
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...TONGUE
MARINE...GOODMAN/SEARS
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/SEARS





000
FXUS61 KOKX 300631
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
231 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL THEN AFFECT THE NORTHEAST DURING MID WEEK...
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH ON SATURDAY...FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A SHORTWAVE AND VORT MAX MOVING THROUGH THE REGION CONTINUED TO
TRIGGER LIGHT RAIN AND SPRINKLES ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LONG
ISLAND. MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR LONG ISLAND AND MOST OF
SOUTHERN CT AS A RESULT.

A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT HAD PUSHED THROUGH MOST OF SRN CT AND ERN
LONG ISLAND...AND WILL CONTINUE MOVE WEST TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT...TURNING LOW LEVEL FLOW IN ITS WAKE TO THE E-NE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AS THE BACK DOOR FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SLOWLY WSW-WARD AND A
WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS...SHOULD SEE MORE SHOWERS TODAY
ESPECIALLY AS THE COMBO OF DAYTIME SFC HEATING AND MID LEVEL
COOLING VIA THE UPPER TROUGH INCREASES INSTABILITY. NAM SOUNDINGS
SHOW CLOSE TO 500 J/KG SBCAPE...MOSTLY AOB THE FREEZING LEVEL SO
NO THUNDER ANTICIPATED ATTM. BUMPED POP UP TO LIKELY MAINLY FOR
LONG ISLAND...WITH CHANCE ELSEWHERE.

SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE AROUND TONIGHT INTO
WED AS AN UPPER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...THEN MOVES ACROSS
ON WED. THE UPPER LOW WILL INTERACT WITH A DEVELOPING INVERTED
TROUGH EXTENDING NW-WARD FROM OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE ON WED...
WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN OF OVER AN INCH NEAR AND JUST EAST
OF WHERE THIS INTERACTION OCCURS...WHICH IS STILL UNCERTAIN DUR TO
ITS MESOSCALE NATURE. THE 00Z NAM/GFS AND 29/12Z ECMWF WERE
POINTING TOWARD SE CT AND ERN LONG ISLAND...WHILE THE LATEST
ECMWF HAS SHIFTED JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CWA.

CLOUDY SKIES AND AND E-NE FLOW OF MARITIME AIR WILL PERSIST...
WITH TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEG ABOVE AVG TODAY...THEN NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVG ON WED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHWRS SHOULD END FROM W TO E WED NGT AS THE UPR LOW SLOWLY EXITS.

SFC RIDGING EXTENDS SWD FROM ERN CANADA THU AND FRI. THIS WILL KEEP
A COOL NE-LY FLOW IN PLACE PRODUCING SEASONAL TEMPS. A MOIST MARINE
LAYER BLW THE DRY MID AND UPR LVLS WITH SUBSIDENCE...SO THE SETUP
WILL NOT BE CONDUCIVE TO ANY CONVECTION OR SIGNIFICANT PCPN. THE
MOST LIKELY SCENARIO WOULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES OR EVEN AREAS OF DZ.
HAVE INCLUDED CHC SPRINKLES WHERE THE GREATEST POOLING OF LLVL
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED ATTM.

MAIN PCPN EVEN IN THE LONG RANGE IS TAKING SHAPE FOR SAT. THE
PRIMARY DRIVER IS A STRONG UPR LOW OVER AK WHICH WILL DROP INTO THE
GREAT LAKES THRU THE PERIOD. STRONG RETURN FLOW FRI NGT PRODUCES
GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA FOR SAT. THE ASSOCIATED CDFNT
AND UPR DYNAMICS THEN PRODUCE A ROUND OF RAIN ON SAT. HAVE INCLUDED
LIKELY POPS IN THE FCST.

DRY ON SUN. A BLEND OF DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE DATA INDICATES
TEMPS WILL NOT GET OUT OF THE 60S. AS THE BROAD UPR LOW/TROF REACHES
THE AREA AROUND MON...THERE IS THE CHC THAT SOMETHING COULD DEVELOP
IN RESPONSE. ECMWF HAD A SFC LOW SPINNING UP...AND THE GFS HAS COLD
POOL TYPE SHWRS. HAVE INCLUDED SCHC POPS AND CLOUDY SKIES AS A
RESULT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS SLIDING SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING. AS OF 06Z THE FRONT WAS JUST NORTH OF THE NEW YORK METRO.
THE FRONT SAGS SOUTH OF THE REGION BY DAYBREAK...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY.

AREAS OF IFR ARE OCCURRING BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT DO NOT EXPECT
THESE TO SPREAD INTO THE IMMEDIATE NY METRO. EXPECT THE IFR AREAS
TO DISSIPATE TO VFR AROUND OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE.

CONFIDENCE IN LOW ON MARGINAL VFR CIGS THIS AFTN. THESE MAY NOT
DEVELOP. SOME LIGHT RA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS EASTERN SECTIONS TODAY.

SFC WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ARE GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KT
FORM THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS SHOULD VEER SLIGHTLY TO ESE
IN THE AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.LATE T0NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER CIGS POSSIBLE. CHC -SHRA E-NE WINDS
AROUND 10 KT.
.WED...CHC MVFR CIGS/VSBYS/-SHRA. E-NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.THU...CHC MVFR MAINLY AM. NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.FRI...VFR. SE-S WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.SAT...RAIN LIKELY - MVFR OR LOWER IN THE AM. SW WINDS AM BECMG WNW
PM. GUSTS 20-25KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
INCREASING E-NE FLOW IN THE WAKE OF A BACK DOOR COLD FROPA...AS
THE WATERS BECOME SANDWICHED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
AND DEVELOPING OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE...SHOULD LEAD TO SCA CONDS
TONIGHT INTO WED NIGHT...AND POSSIBLY THU. ISSUED SCA FOR LATE
THIS EVENING THROUGH WED AFTERNOON AS FLOW INCREASES TO 20-25 KT
AND SEAS BUILD TO 3-5 FT BY LATE EVENING...AND TO 4-7 FT ON WED.

WINDS AND WAVES WILL DECREASE ON FRI...ONLY TO RAPIDLY BUILD
AGAIN ON SAT WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A CDFNT. WINDS AND
SEAS BLW SCA LVLS ON SUNDAY ATTM.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN EXPECTED THROUGH TUE NIGHT. A FEW TENTHS OF
AN INCH OF RAINFALL...AND LOCALLY UP TO AN INCH...ARE POSSIBLE
WED-WED NGT...MAINLY SE CT AND ERN LONG ISLAND. UP TO AN INCH OF
RAIN IS POSSIBLE ON SAT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KOKX 300631
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
231 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL THEN AFFECT THE NORTHEAST DURING MID WEEK...
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH ON SATURDAY...FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A SHORTWAVE AND VORT MAX MOVING THROUGH THE REGION CONTINUED TO
TRIGGER LIGHT RAIN AND SPRINKLES ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LONG
ISLAND. MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR LONG ISLAND AND MOST OF
SOUTHERN CT AS A RESULT.

A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT HAD PUSHED THROUGH MOST OF SRN CT AND ERN
LONG ISLAND...AND WILL CONTINUE MOVE WEST TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT...TURNING LOW LEVEL FLOW IN ITS WAKE TO THE E-NE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AS THE BACK DOOR FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SLOWLY WSW-WARD AND A
WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS...SHOULD SEE MORE SHOWERS TODAY
ESPECIALLY AS THE COMBO OF DAYTIME SFC HEATING AND MID LEVEL
COOLING VIA THE UPPER TROUGH INCREASES INSTABILITY. NAM SOUNDINGS
SHOW CLOSE TO 500 J/KG SBCAPE...MOSTLY AOB THE FREEZING LEVEL SO
NO THUNDER ANTICIPATED ATTM. BUMPED POP UP TO LIKELY MAINLY FOR
LONG ISLAND...WITH CHANCE ELSEWHERE.

SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE AROUND TONIGHT INTO
WED AS AN UPPER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...THEN MOVES ACROSS
ON WED. THE UPPER LOW WILL INTERACT WITH A DEVELOPING INVERTED
TROUGH EXTENDING NW-WARD FROM OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE ON WED...
WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN OF OVER AN INCH NEAR AND JUST EAST
OF WHERE THIS INTERACTION OCCURS...WHICH IS STILL UNCERTAIN DUR TO
ITS MESOSCALE NATURE. THE 00Z NAM/GFS AND 29/12Z ECMWF WERE
POINTING TOWARD SE CT AND ERN LONG ISLAND...WHILE THE LATEST
ECMWF HAS SHIFTED JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CWA.

CLOUDY SKIES AND AND E-NE FLOW OF MARITIME AIR WILL PERSIST...
WITH TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEG ABOVE AVG TODAY...THEN NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVG ON WED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHWRS SHOULD END FROM W TO E WED NGT AS THE UPR LOW SLOWLY EXITS.

SFC RIDGING EXTENDS SWD FROM ERN CANADA THU AND FRI. THIS WILL KEEP
A COOL NE-LY FLOW IN PLACE PRODUCING SEASONAL TEMPS. A MOIST MARINE
LAYER BLW THE DRY MID AND UPR LVLS WITH SUBSIDENCE...SO THE SETUP
WILL NOT BE CONDUCIVE TO ANY CONVECTION OR SIGNIFICANT PCPN. THE
MOST LIKELY SCENARIO WOULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES OR EVEN AREAS OF DZ.
HAVE INCLUDED CHC SPRINKLES WHERE THE GREATEST POOLING OF LLVL
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED ATTM.

MAIN PCPN EVEN IN THE LONG RANGE IS TAKING SHAPE FOR SAT. THE
PRIMARY DRIVER IS A STRONG UPR LOW OVER AK WHICH WILL DROP INTO THE
GREAT LAKES THRU THE PERIOD. STRONG RETURN FLOW FRI NGT PRODUCES
GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA FOR SAT. THE ASSOCIATED CDFNT
AND UPR DYNAMICS THEN PRODUCE A ROUND OF RAIN ON SAT. HAVE INCLUDED
LIKELY POPS IN THE FCST.

DRY ON SUN. A BLEND OF DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE DATA INDICATES
TEMPS WILL NOT GET OUT OF THE 60S. AS THE BROAD UPR LOW/TROF REACHES
THE AREA AROUND MON...THERE IS THE CHC THAT SOMETHING COULD DEVELOP
IN RESPONSE. ECMWF HAD A SFC LOW SPINNING UP...AND THE GFS HAS COLD
POOL TYPE SHWRS. HAVE INCLUDED SCHC POPS AND CLOUDY SKIES AS A
RESULT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS SLIDING SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING. AS OF 06Z THE FRONT WAS JUST NORTH OF THE NEW YORK METRO.
THE FRONT SAGS SOUTH OF THE REGION BY DAYBREAK...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY.

AREAS OF IFR ARE OCCURRING BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT DO NOT EXPECT
THESE TO SPREAD INTO THE IMMEDIATE NY METRO. EXPECT THE IFR AREAS
TO DISSIPATE TO VFR AROUND OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE.

CONFIDENCE IN LOW ON MARGINAL VFR CIGS THIS AFTN. THESE MAY NOT
DEVELOP. SOME LIGHT RA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS EASTERN SECTIONS TODAY.

SFC WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ARE GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KT
FORM THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS SHOULD VEER SLIGHTLY TO ESE
IN THE AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.LATE T0NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER CIGS POSSIBLE. CHC -SHRA E-NE WINDS
AROUND 10 KT.
.WED...CHC MVFR CIGS/VSBYS/-SHRA. E-NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.THU...CHC MVFR MAINLY AM. NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.FRI...VFR. SE-S WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.SAT...RAIN LIKELY - MVFR OR LOWER IN THE AM. SW WINDS AM BECMG WNW
PM. GUSTS 20-25KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
INCREASING E-NE FLOW IN THE WAKE OF A BACK DOOR COLD FROPA...AS
THE WATERS BECOME SANDWICHED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
AND DEVELOPING OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE...SHOULD LEAD TO SCA CONDS
TONIGHT INTO WED NIGHT...AND POSSIBLY THU. ISSUED SCA FOR LATE
THIS EVENING THROUGH WED AFTERNOON AS FLOW INCREASES TO 20-25 KT
AND SEAS BUILD TO 3-5 FT BY LATE EVENING...AND TO 4-7 FT ON WED.

WINDS AND WAVES WILL DECREASE ON FRI...ONLY TO RAPIDLY BUILD
AGAIN ON SAT WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A CDFNT. WINDS AND
SEAS BLW SCA LVLS ON SUNDAY ATTM.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN EXPECTED THROUGH TUE NIGHT. A FEW TENTHS OF
AN INCH OF RAINFALL...AND LOCALLY UP TO AN INCH...ARE POSSIBLE
WED-WED NGT...MAINLY SE CT AND ERN LONG ISLAND. UP TO AN INCH OF
RAIN IS POSSIBLE ON SAT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KOKX 300631
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
231 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL THEN AFFECT THE NORTHEAST DURING MID WEEK...
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH ON SATURDAY...FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A SHORTWAVE AND VORT MAX MOVING THROUGH THE REGION CONTINUED TO
TRIGGER LIGHT RAIN AND SPRINKLES ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LONG
ISLAND. MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR LONG ISLAND AND MOST OF
SOUTHERN CT AS A RESULT.

A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT HAD PUSHED THROUGH MOST OF SRN CT AND ERN
LONG ISLAND...AND WILL CONTINUE MOVE WEST TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT...TURNING LOW LEVEL FLOW IN ITS WAKE TO THE E-NE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AS THE BACK DOOR FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SLOWLY WSW-WARD AND A
WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS...SHOULD SEE MORE SHOWERS TODAY
ESPECIALLY AS THE COMBO OF DAYTIME SFC HEATING AND MID LEVEL
COOLING VIA THE UPPER TROUGH INCREASES INSTABILITY. NAM SOUNDINGS
SHOW CLOSE TO 500 J/KG SBCAPE...MOSTLY AOB THE FREEZING LEVEL SO
NO THUNDER ANTICIPATED ATTM. BUMPED POP UP TO LIKELY MAINLY FOR
LONG ISLAND...WITH CHANCE ELSEWHERE.

SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE AROUND TONIGHT INTO
WED AS AN UPPER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...THEN MOVES ACROSS
ON WED. THE UPPER LOW WILL INTERACT WITH A DEVELOPING INVERTED
TROUGH EXTENDING NW-WARD FROM OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE ON WED...
WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN OF OVER AN INCH NEAR AND JUST EAST
OF WHERE THIS INTERACTION OCCURS...WHICH IS STILL UNCERTAIN DUR TO
ITS MESOSCALE NATURE. THE 00Z NAM/GFS AND 29/12Z ECMWF WERE
POINTING TOWARD SE CT AND ERN LONG ISLAND...WHILE THE LATEST
ECMWF HAS SHIFTED JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CWA.

CLOUDY SKIES AND AND E-NE FLOW OF MARITIME AIR WILL PERSIST...
WITH TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEG ABOVE AVG TODAY...THEN NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVG ON WED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHWRS SHOULD END FROM W TO E WED NGT AS THE UPR LOW SLOWLY EXITS.

SFC RIDGING EXTENDS SWD FROM ERN CANADA THU AND FRI. THIS WILL KEEP
A COOL NE-LY FLOW IN PLACE PRODUCING SEASONAL TEMPS. A MOIST MARINE
LAYER BLW THE DRY MID AND UPR LVLS WITH SUBSIDENCE...SO THE SETUP
WILL NOT BE CONDUCIVE TO ANY CONVECTION OR SIGNIFICANT PCPN. THE
MOST LIKELY SCENARIO WOULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES OR EVEN AREAS OF DZ.
HAVE INCLUDED CHC SPRINKLES WHERE THE GREATEST POOLING OF LLVL
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED ATTM.

MAIN PCPN EVEN IN THE LONG RANGE IS TAKING SHAPE FOR SAT. THE
PRIMARY DRIVER IS A STRONG UPR LOW OVER AK WHICH WILL DROP INTO THE
GREAT LAKES THRU THE PERIOD. STRONG RETURN FLOW FRI NGT PRODUCES
GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA FOR SAT. THE ASSOCIATED CDFNT
AND UPR DYNAMICS THEN PRODUCE A ROUND OF RAIN ON SAT. HAVE INCLUDED
LIKELY POPS IN THE FCST.

DRY ON SUN. A BLEND OF DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE DATA INDICATES
TEMPS WILL NOT GET OUT OF THE 60S. AS THE BROAD UPR LOW/TROF REACHES
THE AREA AROUND MON...THERE IS THE CHC THAT SOMETHING COULD DEVELOP
IN RESPONSE. ECMWF HAD A SFC LOW SPINNING UP...AND THE GFS HAS COLD
POOL TYPE SHWRS. HAVE INCLUDED SCHC POPS AND CLOUDY SKIES AS A
RESULT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS SLIDING SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING. AS OF 06Z THE FRONT WAS JUST NORTH OF THE NEW YORK METRO.
THE FRONT SAGS SOUTH OF THE REGION BY DAYBREAK...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY.

AREAS OF IFR ARE OCCURRING BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT DO NOT EXPECT
THESE TO SPREAD INTO THE IMMEDIATE NY METRO. EXPECT THE IFR AREAS
TO DISSIPATE TO VFR AROUND OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE.

CONFIDENCE IN LOW ON MARGINAL VFR CIGS THIS AFTN. THESE MAY NOT
DEVELOP. SOME LIGHT RA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS EASTERN SECTIONS TODAY.

SFC WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ARE GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KT
FORM THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS SHOULD VEER SLIGHTLY TO ESE
IN THE AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.LATE T0NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER CIGS POSSIBLE. CHC -SHRA E-NE WINDS
AROUND 10 KT.
.WED...CHC MVFR CIGS/VSBYS/-SHRA. E-NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.THU...CHC MVFR MAINLY AM. NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.FRI...VFR. SE-S WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.SAT...RAIN LIKELY - MVFR OR LOWER IN THE AM. SW WINDS AM BECMG WNW
PM. GUSTS 20-25KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
INCREASING E-NE FLOW IN THE WAKE OF A BACK DOOR COLD FROPA...AS
THE WATERS BECOME SANDWICHED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
AND DEVELOPING OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE...SHOULD LEAD TO SCA CONDS
TONIGHT INTO WED NIGHT...AND POSSIBLY THU. ISSUED SCA FOR LATE
THIS EVENING THROUGH WED AFTERNOON AS FLOW INCREASES TO 20-25 KT
AND SEAS BUILD TO 3-5 FT BY LATE EVENING...AND TO 4-7 FT ON WED.

WINDS AND WAVES WILL DECREASE ON FRI...ONLY TO RAPIDLY BUILD
AGAIN ON SAT WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A CDFNT. WINDS AND
SEAS BLW SCA LVLS ON SUNDAY ATTM.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN EXPECTED THROUGH TUE NIGHT. A FEW TENTHS OF
AN INCH OF RAINFALL...AND LOCALLY UP TO AN INCH...ARE POSSIBLE
WED-WED NGT...MAINLY SE CT AND ERN LONG ISLAND. UP TO AN INCH OF
RAIN IS POSSIBLE ON SAT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KOKX 300631
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
231 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL THEN AFFECT THE NORTHEAST DURING MID WEEK...
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH ON SATURDAY...FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A SHORTWAVE AND VORT MAX MOVING THROUGH THE REGION CONTINUED TO
TRIGGER LIGHT RAIN AND SPRINKLES ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LONG
ISLAND. MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR LONG ISLAND AND MOST OF
SOUTHERN CT AS A RESULT.

A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT HAD PUSHED THROUGH MOST OF SRN CT AND ERN
LONG ISLAND...AND WILL CONTINUE MOVE WEST TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT...TURNING LOW LEVEL FLOW IN ITS WAKE TO THE E-NE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AS THE BACK DOOR FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SLOWLY WSW-WARD AND A
WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS...SHOULD SEE MORE SHOWERS TODAY
ESPECIALLY AS THE COMBO OF DAYTIME SFC HEATING AND MID LEVEL
COOLING VIA THE UPPER TROUGH INCREASES INSTABILITY. NAM SOUNDINGS
SHOW CLOSE TO 500 J/KG SBCAPE...MOSTLY AOB THE FREEZING LEVEL SO
NO THUNDER ANTICIPATED ATTM. BUMPED POP UP TO LIKELY MAINLY FOR
LONG ISLAND...WITH CHANCE ELSEWHERE.

SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE AROUND TONIGHT INTO
WED AS AN UPPER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...THEN MOVES ACROSS
ON WED. THE UPPER LOW WILL INTERACT WITH A DEVELOPING INVERTED
TROUGH EXTENDING NW-WARD FROM OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE ON WED...
WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN OF OVER AN INCH NEAR AND JUST EAST
OF WHERE THIS INTERACTION OCCURS...WHICH IS STILL UNCERTAIN DUR TO
ITS MESOSCALE NATURE. THE 00Z NAM/GFS AND 29/12Z ECMWF WERE
POINTING TOWARD SE CT AND ERN LONG ISLAND...WHILE THE LATEST
ECMWF HAS SHIFTED JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CWA.

CLOUDY SKIES AND AND E-NE FLOW OF MARITIME AIR WILL PERSIST...
WITH TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEG ABOVE AVG TODAY...THEN NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVG ON WED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHWRS SHOULD END FROM W TO E WED NGT AS THE UPR LOW SLOWLY EXITS.

SFC RIDGING EXTENDS SWD FROM ERN CANADA THU AND FRI. THIS WILL KEEP
A COOL NE-LY FLOW IN PLACE PRODUCING SEASONAL TEMPS. A MOIST MARINE
LAYER BLW THE DRY MID AND UPR LVLS WITH SUBSIDENCE...SO THE SETUP
WILL NOT BE CONDUCIVE TO ANY CONVECTION OR SIGNIFICANT PCPN. THE
MOST LIKELY SCENARIO WOULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES OR EVEN AREAS OF DZ.
HAVE INCLUDED CHC SPRINKLES WHERE THE GREATEST POOLING OF LLVL
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED ATTM.

MAIN PCPN EVEN IN THE LONG RANGE IS TAKING SHAPE FOR SAT. THE
PRIMARY DRIVER IS A STRONG UPR LOW OVER AK WHICH WILL DROP INTO THE
GREAT LAKES THRU THE PERIOD. STRONG RETURN FLOW FRI NGT PRODUCES
GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA FOR SAT. THE ASSOCIATED CDFNT
AND UPR DYNAMICS THEN PRODUCE A ROUND OF RAIN ON SAT. HAVE INCLUDED
LIKELY POPS IN THE FCST.

DRY ON SUN. A BLEND OF DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE DATA INDICATES
TEMPS WILL NOT GET OUT OF THE 60S. AS THE BROAD UPR LOW/TROF REACHES
THE AREA AROUND MON...THERE IS THE CHC THAT SOMETHING COULD DEVELOP
IN RESPONSE. ECMWF HAD A SFC LOW SPINNING UP...AND THE GFS HAS COLD
POOL TYPE SHWRS. HAVE INCLUDED SCHC POPS AND CLOUDY SKIES AS A
RESULT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS SLIDING SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING. AS OF 06Z THE FRONT WAS JUST NORTH OF THE NEW YORK METRO.
THE FRONT SAGS SOUTH OF THE REGION BY DAYBREAK...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY.

AREAS OF IFR ARE OCCURRING BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT DO NOT EXPECT
THESE TO SPREAD INTO THE IMMEDIATE NY METRO. EXPECT THE IFR AREAS
TO DISSIPATE TO VFR AROUND OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE.

CONFIDENCE IN LOW ON MARGINAL VFR CIGS THIS AFTN. THESE MAY NOT
DEVELOP. SOME LIGHT RA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS EASTERN SECTIONS TODAY.

SFC WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ARE GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KT
FORM THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS SHOULD VEER SLIGHTLY TO ESE
IN THE AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.LATE T0NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER CIGS POSSIBLE. CHC -SHRA E-NE WINDS
AROUND 10 KT.
.WED...CHC MVFR CIGS/VSBYS/-SHRA. E-NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.THU...CHC MVFR MAINLY AM. NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.FRI...VFR. SE-S WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.SAT...RAIN LIKELY - MVFR OR LOWER IN THE AM. SW WINDS AM BECMG WNW
PM. GUSTS 20-25KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
INCREASING E-NE FLOW IN THE WAKE OF A BACK DOOR COLD FROPA...AS
THE WATERS BECOME SANDWICHED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
AND DEVELOPING OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE...SHOULD LEAD TO SCA CONDS
TONIGHT INTO WED NIGHT...AND POSSIBLY THU. ISSUED SCA FOR LATE
THIS EVENING THROUGH WED AFTERNOON AS FLOW INCREASES TO 20-25 KT
AND SEAS BUILD TO 3-5 FT BY LATE EVENING...AND TO 4-7 FT ON WED.

WINDS AND WAVES WILL DECREASE ON FRI...ONLY TO RAPIDLY BUILD
AGAIN ON SAT WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A CDFNT. WINDS AND
SEAS BLW SCA LVLS ON SUNDAY ATTM.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN EXPECTED THROUGH TUE NIGHT. A FEW TENTHS OF
AN INCH OF RAINFALL...AND LOCALLY UP TO AN INCH...ARE POSSIBLE
WED-WED NGT...MAINLY SE CT AND ERN LONG ISLAND. UP TO AN INCH OF
RAIN IS POSSIBLE ON SAT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KALY 300528
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
128 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT AND ON
TUESDAY...BRINGING SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR. THE COMBINATION OF THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM THE WEST
WILL ALSO RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES REMAINING A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MUCH
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 128 AM EDT...A BACK/SIDE DOOR COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE
CENTRAL ADIRONDACKS TOWARDS THE CAPITAL REGION AND INTO NW CT. THE
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT WESTWARD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALSO...A
CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SITUATED WEST OF THE REGION OVER
LOWER MICHIGAN...AND THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO WORK EASTWARD
TOWARDS OUR AREA.

THE STREAM OF MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SURGING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE
NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO AND FROM OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT. THIS CLOUDINESS WILL TEND TO THIN AND RECEDE AT
TIMES NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY...BUT MOST OF THE REGION WILL
AVERAGE MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR TONIGHT AS LOWER STRATUS CLOUDS MOVE IN
FROM NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE. EVEN
WITH THE CLOUD COVER IN PLACE...LIMITED MOISTURE IN THE LOWEST
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL PREVENT ANY PRECIP FROM OCCURRING
OVERNIGHT. DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER...TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE A LITTLE
MILDER...WITH LOWS FORECAST TO BE IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE BACKDOOR BOUNDARY WILL DROP SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION BY
TUESDAY...AND INTERACT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. THIS WILL RESULT
IN SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION...BUT NO WIDESPREAD PCPN IS
EXPECTED DUE TO THE WEAKNESS OF BOTH SYSTEMS. HAVE ONLY FORECAST 20
TO 40 PERCENT POPS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ALSO EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD. THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. HAVE ONLY INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST AREAS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE
DECREASING TO PARTLY CLOUDY.

TEMPS WILL CONTINUE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WILL BE BETWEEN 65 AND 75. LOWS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHTS WILL BE BETWEEN 45 AND 55.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT ON THURSDAY WITH OUR REGION UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...WITH A SURFACE HIGH LOCATED OVER
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES PROVIDING A WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW. SO DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING ABOVE NORMAL.
ON FRIDAY A POTENT UPPER TROUGH MIGRATES EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES...WITH A DEVELOPING SURFACE WAVE IN SOUTHEAST CANADA. WITH THE
SURFACE RIDGE HOLDING ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ESPECIALLY LATE IN
THE DAY. 12Z GFS/ECMWF IN AGREEMENT WITH HOLDING OFF MUCH OF THE
RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT...SO WILL
ONLY MENTION LOW CHANCE POPS WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY THROUGH
SUNSET.

THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE FOR A PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD MODERATE
RAINFALL FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSS OUR REGION. GOOD MOISTURE
INFLUX WITH 40+ KT LOW LEVEL SOUTHERN FLOW ALONG WITH GUIDANCE
INDICATING A POSSIBLE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD
FRONT AS IT PASSES THROUGH...WHICH COULD ENHANCE RAINFALL. AS OF NOW
IT LOOKS LIKE A AROUND 0.50-1.00 INCHES OF RAIN MAY OCCUR BUT DUE TO
THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM GREATER AMOUNTS ARE NOT
LIKELY. RAINFALL SHOULD TAPER OFF ON SATURDAY...WITH SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES NOTED IN MODELS. AT LEAST THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY MAY
END UP DRYING...ESPECIALLY FROM ALBANY WESTWARD.

A MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURE REGIME WILL THEN SET UP BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD ON
MONDAY...AS A PATTERN SHIFT IS FORECAST TO OCCUR WITH A LONG WAVE
TROUGH SETTING UP ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. FROM SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY...THERE WILL BE PERIODIC CHANCES FOR A FEW SHOWERS AS
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH. THE BEST CHANCES WILL
BE OVER THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY WHERE LAKE
ENHANCED SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DUE TO LAKE-AIR TEMP
DIFFERENTIALS INCREASING WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT MOVING IN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WAS PROGRESSING ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS WHERE SKIES WERE CLEAR...STRATUS WAS
RAPIDLY DEVELOPING AS THOSE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS WERE NARROWING.
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE COLD FRONT...CIGS WERE RATHER LOW AS THIS
WILL BE THE MAIN CHALLENGE THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE
REGION.

HIGH CONFIDENCE OF MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT KPSF THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD DUE TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
NEARBY.  FOR KGFL...RESTRICTIONS WILL BE OCCASIONAL TO ABRUPT AS
THIS TAF LOCATION HAS BEEN ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS.  HOWEVER...AS THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MIGRATES INTO
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR CIGS AND VIS WILL
OCCUR.  FOR KALB-KPOU...IT WILL TAKE ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE
THE MVFR/IFR STRATUS DECK ARRIVES...HENCE THE TEMPO GROUPS AT THIS
TIME.

THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KPSF WHERE ELEVATION SHOULD KEEP FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS WELL INTO MVFR THRESHOLDS.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...SHIFTING TO THE EAST OR NORTHEAST
AROUND 5 KT OVERNIGHT...THEN EAST-SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH VALUES WILL RECOVER TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD
DEW FORMATION AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.

RH VALUES WILL ONLY DROP TO 60 TO 70 PERCENT ON TUESDAY WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A FEW RAIN SHOWERS AROUND...MAINLY FOR
WESTERN/SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION. S-SE WINDS WILL BE AROUND 5
TO 10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC RELATED ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY FOR MOST OF THIS WEEK. THE ONLY
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL COME AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS INTO THE
AREA AND STALLS ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION. WITH THIS
BOUNDARY AROUND...AND SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANY RAIN SHOWERS THAT OCCUR WILL HAVE LITTLE OR
NO EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. MOST RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE
RUNNING BELOW NORMAL...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/GJM/JPV
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM







000
FXUS61 KALY 300528
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
128 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT AND ON
TUESDAY...BRINGING SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR. THE COMBINATION OF THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM THE WEST
WILL ALSO RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES REMAINING A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MUCH
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 128 AM EDT...A BACK/SIDE DOOR COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE
CENTRAL ADIRONDACKS TOWARDS THE CAPITAL REGION AND INTO NW CT. THE
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT WESTWARD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALSO...A
CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SITUATED WEST OF THE REGION OVER
LOWER MICHIGAN...AND THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO WORK EASTWARD
TOWARDS OUR AREA.

THE STREAM OF MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SURGING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE
NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO AND FROM OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT. THIS CLOUDINESS WILL TEND TO THIN AND RECEDE AT
TIMES NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY...BUT MOST OF THE REGION WILL
AVERAGE MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR TONIGHT AS LOWER STRATUS CLOUDS MOVE IN
FROM NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE. EVEN
WITH THE CLOUD COVER IN PLACE...LIMITED MOISTURE IN THE LOWEST
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL PREVENT ANY PRECIP FROM OCCURRING
OVERNIGHT. DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER...TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE A LITTLE
MILDER...WITH LOWS FORECAST TO BE IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE BACKDOOR BOUNDARY WILL DROP SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION BY
TUESDAY...AND INTERACT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. THIS WILL RESULT
IN SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION...BUT NO WIDESPREAD PCPN IS
EXPECTED DUE TO THE WEAKNESS OF BOTH SYSTEMS. HAVE ONLY FORECAST 20
TO 40 PERCENT POPS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ALSO EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD. THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. HAVE ONLY INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST AREAS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE
DECREASING TO PARTLY CLOUDY.

TEMPS WILL CONTINUE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WILL BE BETWEEN 65 AND 75. LOWS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHTS WILL BE BETWEEN 45 AND 55.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT ON THURSDAY WITH OUR REGION UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...WITH A SURFACE HIGH LOCATED OVER
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES PROVIDING A WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW. SO DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING ABOVE NORMAL.
ON FRIDAY A POTENT UPPER TROUGH MIGRATES EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES...WITH A DEVELOPING SURFACE WAVE IN SOUTHEAST CANADA. WITH THE
SURFACE RIDGE HOLDING ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ESPECIALLY LATE IN
THE DAY. 12Z GFS/ECMWF IN AGREEMENT WITH HOLDING OFF MUCH OF THE
RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT...SO WILL
ONLY MENTION LOW CHANCE POPS WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY THROUGH
SUNSET.

THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE FOR A PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD MODERATE
RAINFALL FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSS OUR REGION. GOOD MOISTURE
INFLUX WITH 40+ KT LOW LEVEL SOUTHERN FLOW ALONG WITH GUIDANCE
INDICATING A POSSIBLE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD
FRONT AS IT PASSES THROUGH...WHICH COULD ENHANCE RAINFALL. AS OF NOW
IT LOOKS LIKE A AROUND 0.50-1.00 INCHES OF RAIN MAY OCCUR BUT DUE TO
THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM GREATER AMOUNTS ARE NOT
LIKELY. RAINFALL SHOULD TAPER OFF ON SATURDAY...WITH SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES NOTED IN MODELS. AT LEAST THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY MAY
END UP DRYING...ESPECIALLY FROM ALBANY WESTWARD.

A MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURE REGIME WILL THEN SET UP BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD ON
MONDAY...AS A PATTERN SHIFT IS FORECAST TO OCCUR WITH A LONG WAVE
TROUGH SETTING UP ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. FROM SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY...THERE WILL BE PERIODIC CHANCES FOR A FEW SHOWERS AS
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH. THE BEST CHANCES WILL
BE OVER THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY WHERE LAKE
ENHANCED SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DUE TO LAKE-AIR TEMP
DIFFERENTIALS INCREASING WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT MOVING IN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WAS PROGRESSING ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS WHERE SKIES WERE CLEAR...STRATUS WAS
RAPIDLY DEVELOPING AS THOSE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS WERE NARROWING.
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE COLD FRONT...CIGS WERE RATHER LOW AS THIS
WILL BE THE MAIN CHALLENGE THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE
REGION.

HIGH CONFIDENCE OF MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT KPSF THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD DUE TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
NEARBY.  FOR KGFL...RESTRICTIONS WILL BE OCCASIONAL TO ABRUPT AS
THIS TAF LOCATION HAS BEEN ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS.  HOWEVER...AS THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MIGRATES INTO
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR CIGS AND VIS WILL
OCCUR.  FOR KALB-KPOU...IT WILL TAKE ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE
THE MVFR/IFR STRATUS DECK ARRIVES...HENCE THE TEMPO GROUPS AT THIS
TIME.

THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KPSF WHERE ELEVATION SHOULD KEEP FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS WELL INTO MVFR THRESHOLDS.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...SHIFTING TO THE EAST OR NORTHEAST
AROUND 5 KT OVERNIGHT...THEN EAST-SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH VALUES WILL RECOVER TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD
DEW FORMATION AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.

RH VALUES WILL ONLY DROP TO 60 TO 70 PERCENT ON TUESDAY WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A FEW RAIN SHOWERS AROUND...MAINLY FOR
WESTERN/SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION. S-SE WINDS WILL BE AROUND 5
TO 10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC RELATED ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY FOR MOST OF THIS WEEK. THE ONLY
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL COME AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS INTO THE
AREA AND STALLS ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION. WITH THIS
BOUNDARY AROUND...AND SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANY RAIN SHOWERS THAT OCCUR WILL HAVE LITTLE OR
NO EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. MOST RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE
RUNNING BELOW NORMAL...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/GJM/JPV
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM







000
FXUS61 KALY 300528
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
128 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT AND ON
TUESDAY...BRINGING SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR. THE COMBINATION OF THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM THE WEST
WILL ALSO RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES REMAINING A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MUCH
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 128 AM EDT...A BACK/SIDE DOOR COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE
CENTRAL ADIRONDACKS TOWARDS THE CAPITAL REGION AND INTO NW CT. THE
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT WESTWARD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALSO...A
CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SITUATED WEST OF THE REGION OVER
LOWER MICHIGAN...AND THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO WORK EASTWARD
TOWARDS OUR AREA.

THE STREAM OF MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SURGING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE
NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO AND FROM OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT. THIS CLOUDINESS WILL TEND TO THIN AND RECEDE AT
TIMES NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY...BUT MOST OF THE REGION WILL
AVERAGE MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR TONIGHT AS LOWER STRATUS CLOUDS MOVE IN
FROM NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE. EVEN
WITH THE CLOUD COVER IN PLACE...LIMITED MOISTURE IN THE LOWEST
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL PREVENT ANY PRECIP FROM OCCURRING
OVERNIGHT. DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER...TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE A LITTLE
MILDER...WITH LOWS FORECAST TO BE IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE BACKDOOR BOUNDARY WILL DROP SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION BY
TUESDAY...AND INTERACT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. THIS WILL RESULT
IN SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION...BUT NO WIDESPREAD PCPN IS
EXPECTED DUE TO THE WEAKNESS OF BOTH SYSTEMS. HAVE ONLY FORECAST 20
TO 40 PERCENT POPS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ALSO EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD. THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. HAVE ONLY INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST AREAS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE
DECREASING TO PARTLY CLOUDY.

TEMPS WILL CONTINUE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WILL BE BETWEEN 65 AND 75. LOWS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHTS WILL BE BETWEEN 45 AND 55.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT ON THURSDAY WITH OUR REGION UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...WITH A SURFACE HIGH LOCATED OVER
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES PROVIDING A WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW. SO DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING ABOVE NORMAL.
ON FRIDAY A POTENT UPPER TROUGH MIGRATES EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES...WITH A DEVELOPING SURFACE WAVE IN SOUTHEAST CANADA. WITH THE
SURFACE RIDGE HOLDING ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ESPECIALLY LATE IN
THE DAY. 12Z GFS/ECMWF IN AGREEMENT WITH HOLDING OFF MUCH OF THE
RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT...SO WILL
ONLY MENTION LOW CHANCE POPS WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY THROUGH
SUNSET.

THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE FOR A PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD MODERATE
RAINFALL FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSS OUR REGION. GOOD MOISTURE
INFLUX WITH 40+ KT LOW LEVEL SOUTHERN FLOW ALONG WITH GUIDANCE
INDICATING A POSSIBLE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD
FRONT AS IT PASSES THROUGH...WHICH COULD ENHANCE RAINFALL. AS OF NOW
IT LOOKS LIKE A AROUND 0.50-1.00 INCHES OF RAIN MAY OCCUR BUT DUE TO
THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM GREATER AMOUNTS ARE NOT
LIKELY. RAINFALL SHOULD TAPER OFF ON SATURDAY...WITH SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES NOTED IN MODELS. AT LEAST THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY MAY
END UP DRYING...ESPECIALLY FROM ALBANY WESTWARD.

A MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURE REGIME WILL THEN SET UP BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD ON
MONDAY...AS A PATTERN SHIFT IS FORECAST TO OCCUR WITH A LONG WAVE
TROUGH SETTING UP ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. FROM SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY...THERE WILL BE PERIODIC CHANCES FOR A FEW SHOWERS AS
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH. THE BEST CHANCES WILL
BE OVER THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY WHERE LAKE
ENHANCED SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DUE TO LAKE-AIR TEMP
DIFFERENTIALS INCREASING WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT MOVING IN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WAS PROGRESSING ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS WHERE SKIES WERE CLEAR...STRATUS WAS
RAPIDLY DEVELOPING AS THOSE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS WERE NARROWING.
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE COLD FRONT...CIGS WERE RATHER LOW AS THIS
WILL BE THE MAIN CHALLENGE THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE
REGION.

HIGH CONFIDENCE OF MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT KPSF THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD DUE TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
NEARBY.  FOR KGFL...RESTRICTIONS WILL BE OCCASIONAL TO ABRUPT AS
THIS TAF LOCATION HAS BEEN ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS.  HOWEVER...AS THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MIGRATES INTO
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR CIGS AND VIS WILL
OCCUR.  FOR KALB-KPOU...IT WILL TAKE ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE
THE MVFR/IFR STRATUS DECK ARRIVES...HENCE THE TEMPO GROUPS AT THIS
TIME.

THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KPSF WHERE ELEVATION SHOULD KEEP FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS WELL INTO MVFR THRESHOLDS.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...SHIFTING TO THE EAST OR NORTHEAST
AROUND 5 KT OVERNIGHT...THEN EAST-SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH VALUES WILL RECOVER TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD
DEW FORMATION AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.

RH VALUES WILL ONLY DROP TO 60 TO 70 PERCENT ON TUESDAY WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A FEW RAIN SHOWERS AROUND...MAINLY FOR
WESTERN/SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION. S-SE WINDS WILL BE AROUND 5
TO 10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC RELATED ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY FOR MOST OF THIS WEEK. THE ONLY
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL COME AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS INTO THE
AREA AND STALLS ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION. WITH THIS
BOUNDARY AROUND...AND SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANY RAIN SHOWERS THAT OCCUR WILL HAVE LITTLE OR
NO EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. MOST RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE
RUNNING BELOW NORMAL...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/GJM/JPV
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM







000
FXUS61 KALY 300528
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
128 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT AND ON
TUESDAY...BRINGING SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR. THE COMBINATION OF THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM THE WEST
WILL ALSO RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES REMAINING A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MUCH
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 128 AM EDT...A BACK/SIDE DOOR COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE
CENTRAL ADIRONDACKS TOWARDS THE CAPITAL REGION AND INTO NW CT. THE
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT WESTWARD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALSO...A
CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SITUATED WEST OF THE REGION OVER
LOWER MICHIGAN...AND THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO WORK EASTWARD
TOWARDS OUR AREA.

THE STREAM OF MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SURGING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE
NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO AND FROM OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT. THIS CLOUDINESS WILL TEND TO THIN AND RECEDE AT
TIMES NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY...BUT MOST OF THE REGION WILL
AVERAGE MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR TONIGHT AS LOWER STRATUS CLOUDS MOVE IN
FROM NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE. EVEN
WITH THE CLOUD COVER IN PLACE...LIMITED MOISTURE IN THE LOWEST
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL PREVENT ANY PRECIP FROM OCCURRING
OVERNIGHT. DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER...TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE A LITTLE
MILDER...WITH LOWS FORECAST TO BE IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE BACKDOOR BOUNDARY WILL DROP SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION BY
TUESDAY...AND INTERACT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. THIS WILL RESULT
IN SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION...BUT NO WIDESPREAD PCPN IS
EXPECTED DUE TO THE WEAKNESS OF BOTH SYSTEMS. HAVE ONLY FORECAST 20
TO 40 PERCENT POPS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ALSO EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD. THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. HAVE ONLY INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST AREAS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE
DECREASING TO PARTLY CLOUDY.

TEMPS WILL CONTINUE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WILL BE BETWEEN 65 AND 75. LOWS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHTS WILL BE BETWEEN 45 AND 55.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT ON THURSDAY WITH OUR REGION UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...WITH A SURFACE HIGH LOCATED OVER
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES PROVIDING A WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW. SO DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING ABOVE NORMAL.
ON FRIDAY A POTENT UPPER TROUGH MIGRATES EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES...WITH A DEVELOPING SURFACE WAVE IN SOUTHEAST CANADA. WITH THE
SURFACE RIDGE HOLDING ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ESPECIALLY LATE IN
THE DAY. 12Z GFS/ECMWF IN AGREEMENT WITH HOLDING OFF MUCH OF THE
RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT...SO WILL
ONLY MENTION LOW CHANCE POPS WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY THROUGH
SUNSET.

THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE FOR A PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD MODERATE
RAINFALL FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSS OUR REGION. GOOD MOISTURE
INFLUX WITH 40+ KT LOW LEVEL SOUTHERN FLOW ALONG WITH GUIDANCE
INDICATING A POSSIBLE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD
FRONT AS IT PASSES THROUGH...WHICH COULD ENHANCE RAINFALL. AS OF NOW
IT LOOKS LIKE A AROUND 0.50-1.00 INCHES OF RAIN MAY OCCUR BUT DUE TO
THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM GREATER AMOUNTS ARE NOT
LIKELY. RAINFALL SHOULD TAPER OFF ON SATURDAY...WITH SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES NOTED IN MODELS. AT LEAST THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY MAY
END UP DRYING...ESPECIALLY FROM ALBANY WESTWARD.

A MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURE REGIME WILL THEN SET UP BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD ON
MONDAY...AS A PATTERN SHIFT IS FORECAST TO OCCUR WITH A LONG WAVE
TROUGH SETTING UP ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. FROM SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY...THERE WILL BE PERIODIC CHANCES FOR A FEW SHOWERS AS
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH. THE BEST CHANCES WILL
BE OVER THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY WHERE LAKE
ENHANCED SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DUE TO LAKE-AIR TEMP
DIFFERENTIALS INCREASING WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT MOVING IN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WAS PROGRESSING ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS WHERE SKIES WERE CLEAR...STRATUS WAS
RAPIDLY DEVELOPING AS THOSE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS WERE NARROWING.
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE COLD FRONT...CIGS WERE RATHER LOW AS THIS
WILL BE THE MAIN CHALLENGE THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE
REGION.

HIGH CONFIDENCE OF MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT KPSF THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD DUE TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
NEARBY.  FOR KGFL...RESTRICTIONS WILL BE OCCASIONAL TO ABRUPT AS
THIS TAF LOCATION HAS BEEN ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS.  HOWEVER...AS THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MIGRATES INTO
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR CIGS AND VIS WILL
OCCUR.  FOR KALB-KPOU...IT WILL TAKE ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE
THE MVFR/IFR STRATUS DECK ARRIVES...HENCE THE TEMPO GROUPS AT THIS
TIME.

THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KPSF WHERE ELEVATION SHOULD KEEP FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS WELL INTO MVFR THRESHOLDS.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...SHIFTING TO THE EAST OR NORTHEAST
AROUND 5 KT OVERNIGHT...THEN EAST-SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH VALUES WILL RECOVER TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD
DEW FORMATION AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.

RH VALUES WILL ONLY DROP TO 60 TO 70 PERCENT ON TUESDAY WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A FEW RAIN SHOWERS AROUND...MAINLY FOR
WESTERN/SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION. S-SE WINDS WILL BE AROUND 5
TO 10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC RELATED ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY FOR MOST OF THIS WEEK. THE ONLY
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL COME AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS INTO THE
AREA AND STALLS ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION. WITH THIS
BOUNDARY AROUND...AND SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANY RAIN SHOWERS THAT OCCUR WILL HAVE LITTLE OR
NO EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. MOST RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE
RUNNING BELOW NORMAL...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/GJM/JPV
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM







000
FXUS61 KOKX 300249
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1049 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL THEN AFFECT THE NORTHEAST DURING MID WEEK...
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH ON SATURDAY...FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A SHORTWAVE AND VORT MAX MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WAS TRIGGERING
SOME LIGHT RAIN AND SPRINKLES ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY INTO
SOUTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT. MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WAS NOT
REACHING THE GROUND AT THIS TIME. OTHER VORT MAXES WILL BE
ROTATING THROUGH THE SHORTWAVE OVERNIGHT AND WILL PRODUCE
ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES ACROSS MUCH OF CONNECTICUT AND
SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK.

A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVING INTO SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT AND
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...TURNING
LOW LEVEL FLOW TO THE E-NE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES ALOFT WITH THE SLOW MOVING
UPPER TROUGH ON TUE...AND AHEAD OF A MORE POTENT UPPER LOW APCHG
FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES LATE DAY TUE INTO TUE NIGHT...SHOULD
MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND CHANCES FOR ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS
THROUGH THE PD. E-NE FLOW OF MARITIME AIR WILL ALSO PERSIST...WITH
TEMPS CLOSER TO BUT STILL A COUPLE OF DEG ABOVE AVG.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHRTWV DROPPING INTO NRN MN WILL PASS THRU THE CWA AS A CLOSED H5
LOW ON WED. 12Z MODEL TIMING IS CONSISTENT AMONG THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF.
H85-H5 LAPSE RATES IN THE 5-6C/KM RANGE. DPVA SHOULD BE ABLE TO
OVERCOME THE WEAK CAP AROUND H7. AS A RESULT...WILL FCST SCT SHWRS
WED...ENDING FROM W TO E WED NGT AS THE UPR LOW SLOWLY EXITS. DEPTH
OF CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR AN ISOLD
LIGHTNING FLASH...ESPECIALLY OVER OR INVOF THE WATER WHERE THE WARM
AND MOIST BL WILL YIELD A SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE COLUMN.

SFC RIDGING EXTENDS SWD FROM ERN CANADA THU AND FRI. THIS WILL KEEP
A COOL NE-LY FLOW IN PLACE PRODUCING SEASONAL TEMPS. A MOIST MARINE
LAYER BLW THE DRY MID AND UPR LVLS WITH SUBSIDENCE...SO THE SETUP
WILL NOT BE CONDUCIVE TO ANY CONVECTION OR SIGNIFICANT PCPN. THE
MOST LIKELY SCENARIO WOULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES OR EVEN AREAS OF DZ.
HAVE INCLUDED CHC SPRINKLES WHERE THE GREATEST POOLING OF LLVL
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED ATTM.

MAIN PCPN EVEN IN THE LONG RANGE IS TAKING SHAPE FOR SAT. THE
PRIMARY DRIVER IS A STRONG UPR LOW OVER AK WHICH WILL DROP INTO THE
GREAT LAKES THRU THE PERIOD. STRONG RETURN FLOW FRI NGT PRODUCES
GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA FOR SAT. THE ASSOCIATED CDFNT
AND UPR DYNAMICS THEN PRODUCE A ROUND OF RAIN ON SAT. HAVE INCLUDED
LIKELY POPS IN THE FCST.

DRY ON SUN. A BLEND OF DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE DATA INDICATES
TEMPS WILL NOT GET OUT OF THE 60S. AS THE BROAD UPR LOW/TROF REACHES
THE AREA AROUND MON...THERE IS THE CHC THAT SOMETHING COULD DEVELOP
IN RESPONSE. ECMWF HAD A SFC LOW SPINNING UP...AND THE GFS HAS COLD
POOL TYPE SHWRS. HAVE INCLUDED SCHC POPS AND CLOUDY SKIES AS A
RESULT.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWEST THROUGH DAYBREAK...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY.

VFR. A FEW SPRINKLES OR ISOLATED -SHRA POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN TERMINALS OVERNIGHT.

IFR STRATUS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD CONTINUE OVER KGON
OVERNIGHT...WITH MVFR CIGS LIKELY DEVELOPING INTO KISP/KBDR/KHPN
LATE TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING. CONFIDENCE LOW ON STRATUS
DEVELOPING INTO NYC METRO TERMINALS TOWARDS DAYBREAK. STRATUS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT
POTENTIAL FOR IT TO LINGER INTO AFTERNOON ACROSS CT TERMINALS WITH
ISOLATED SHRA ACTIVITY.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOME E/NE IN THE WAKE OF COLD FRONT
OVERNIGHT. E/NE WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. WINDS
EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY RIGHT OF 040 MAG AND LEFT OF 130 MAG AT
METRO TERMINALS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUE NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER CIGS POSSIBLE. CHC -SHRA E-NE WINDS
AROUND 10 KT.
.WED...CHC MVFR CIGS/VSBYS/-SHRA. E-NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.THU...CHC MVFR MAINLY AM. NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.FRI...VFR. SE-S WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.SAT...RAIN LIKELY. CHC MVFR OR LOWER. SW WINDS AM BECMG WNW PM.
GUSTS 20-25KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH TUE. PERSISTENT/INCREASING E-NE FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN SCA
CONDS TUE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY LATE. TOO EARLY TO ISSUE SCA FOR THIS
TIME FRAME.

THESE CONDS COULD CONTINUE INTO THU...ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN AND
THE ERN SOUND/BAYS. WINDS AND WAVES WILL DECREASE ON FRI...ONLY TO
RAPIDLY BUILD AGAIN ON SAT WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A
CDFNT. WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS ON SUNDAY ATTM.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN EXPECTED THROUGH TUE NIGHT. A FEW TENTHS OF
AN INCH OF RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE WED-WED NGT. UP TO AN INCH OF
RAIN IS POSSIBLE ON SAT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/MET
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...JMC/GOODMAN/MET
HYDROLOGY...JMC/GOODMAN










000
FXUS61 KOKX 300249
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1049 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL THEN AFFECT THE NORTHEAST DURING MID WEEK...
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH ON SATURDAY...FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A SHORTWAVE AND VORT MAX MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WAS TRIGGERING
SOME LIGHT RAIN AND SPRINKLES ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY INTO
SOUTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT. MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WAS NOT
REACHING THE GROUND AT THIS TIME. OTHER VORT MAXES WILL BE
ROTATING THROUGH THE SHORTWAVE OVERNIGHT AND WILL PRODUCE
ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES ACROSS MUCH OF CONNECTICUT AND
SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK.

A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVING INTO SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT AND
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...TURNING
LOW LEVEL FLOW TO THE E-NE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES ALOFT WITH THE SLOW MOVING
UPPER TROUGH ON TUE...AND AHEAD OF A MORE POTENT UPPER LOW APCHG
FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES LATE DAY TUE INTO TUE NIGHT...SHOULD
MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND CHANCES FOR ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS
THROUGH THE PD. E-NE FLOW OF MARITIME AIR WILL ALSO PERSIST...WITH
TEMPS CLOSER TO BUT STILL A COUPLE OF DEG ABOVE AVG.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHRTWV DROPPING INTO NRN MN WILL PASS THRU THE CWA AS A CLOSED H5
LOW ON WED. 12Z MODEL TIMING IS CONSISTENT AMONG THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF.
H85-H5 LAPSE RATES IN THE 5-6C/KM RANGE. DPVA SHOULD BE ABLE TO
OVERCOME THE WEAK CAP AROUND H7. AS A RESULT...WILL FCST SCT SHWRS
WED...ENDING FROM W TO E WED NGT AS THE UPR LOW SLOWLY EXITS. DEPTH
OF CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR AN ISOLD
LIGHTNING FLASH...ESPECIALLY OVER OR INVOF THE WATER WHERE THE WARM
AND MOIST BL WILL YIELD A SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE COLUMN.

SFC RIDGING EXTENDS SWD FROM ERN CANADA THU AND FRI. THIS WILL KEEP
A COOL NE-LY FLOW IN PLACE PRODUCING SEASONAL TEMPS. A MOIST MARINE
LAYER BLW THE DRY MID AND UPR LVLS WITH SUBSIDENCE...SO THE SETUP
WILL NOT BE CONDUCIVE TO ANY CONVECTION OR SIGNIFICANT PCPN. THE
MOST LIKELY SCENARIO WOULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES OR EVEN AREAS OF DZ.
HAVE INCLUDED CHC SPRINKLES WHERE THE GREATEST POOLING OF LLVL
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED ATTM.

MAIN PCPN EVEN IN THE LONG RANGE IS TAKING SHAPE FOR SAT. THE
PRIMARY DRIVER IS A STRONG UPR LOW OVER AK WHICH WILL DROP INTO THE
GREAT LAKES THRU THE PERIOD. STRONG RETURN FLOW FRI NGT PRODUCES
GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA FOR SAT. THE ASSOCIATED CDFNT
AND UPR DYNAMICS THEN PRODUCE A ROUND OF RAIN ON SAT. HAVE INCLUDED
LIKELY POPS IN THE FCST.

DRY ON SUN. A BLEND OF DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE DATA INDICATES
TEMPS WILL NOT GET OUT OF THE 60S. AS THE BROAD UPR LOW/TROF REACHES
THE AREA AROUND MON...THERE IS THE CHC THAT SOMETHING COULD DEVELOP
IN RESPONSE. ECMWF HAD A SFC LOW SPINNING UP...AND THE GFS HAS COLD
POOL TYPE SHWRS. HAVE INCLUDED SCHC POPS AND CLOUDY SKIES AS A
RESULT.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWEST THROUGH DAYBREAK...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY.

VFR. A FEW SPRINKLES OR ISOLATED -SHRA POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN TERMINALS OVERNIGHT.

IFR STRATUS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD CONTINUE OVER KGON
OVERNIGHT...WITH MVFR CIGS LIKELY DEVELOPING INTO KISP/KBDR/KHPN
LATE TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING. CONFIDENCE LOW ON STRATUS
DEVELOPING INTO NYC METRO TERMINALS TOWARDS DAYBREAK. STRATUS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT
POTENTIAL FOR IT TO LINGER INTO AFTERNOON ACROSS CT TERMINALS WITH
ISOLATED SHRA ACTIVITY.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOME E/NE IN THE WAKE OF COLD FRONT
OVERNIGHT. E/NE WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. WINDS
EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY RIGHT OF 040 MAG AND LEFT OF 130 MAG AT
METRO TERMINALS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUE NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER CIGS POSSIBLE. CHC -SHRA E-NE WINDS
AROUND 10 KT.
.WED...CHC MVFR CIGS/VSBYS/-SHRA. E-NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.THU...CHC MVFR MAINLY AM. NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.FRI...VFR. SE-S WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.SAT...RAIN LIKELY. CHC MVFR OR LOWER. SW WINDS AM BECMG WNW PM.
GUSTS 20-25KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH TUE. PERSISTENT/INCREASING E-NE FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN SCA
CONDS TUE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY LATE. TOO EARLY TO ISSUE SCA FOR THIS
TIME FRAME.

THESE CONDS COULD CONTINUE INTO THU...ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN AND
THE ERN SOUND/BAYS. WINDS AND WAVES WILL DECREASE ON FRI...ONLY TO
RAPIDLY BUILD AGAIN ON SAT WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A
CDFNT. WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS ON SUNDAY ATTM.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN EXPECTED THROUGH TUE NIGHT. A FEW TENTHS OF
AN INCH OF RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE WED-WED NGT. UP TO AN INCH OF
RAIN IS POSSIBLE ON SAT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/MET
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...JMC/GOODMAN/MET
HYDROLOGY...JMC/GOODMAN










000
FXUS61 KOKX 300249
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1049 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL THEN AFFECT THE NORTHEAST DURING MID WEEK...
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH ON SATURDAY...FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A SHORTWAVE AND VORT MAX MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WAS TRIGGERING
SOME LIGHT RAIN AND SPRINKLES ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY INTO
SOUTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT. MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WAS NOT
REACHING THE GROUND AT THIS TIME. OTHER VORT MAXES WILL BE
ROTATING THROUGH THE SHORTWAVE OVERNIGHT AND WILL PRODUCE
ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES ACROSS MUCH OF CONNECTICUT AND
SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK.

A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVING INTO SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT AND
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...TURNING
LOW LEVEL FLOW TO THE E-NE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES ALOFT WITH THE SLOW MOVING
UPPER TROUGH ON TUE...AND AHEAD OF A MORE POTENT UPPER LOW APCHG
FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES LATE DAY TUE INTO TUE NIGHT...SHOULD
MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND CHANCES FOR ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS
THROUGH THE PD. E-NE FLOW OF MARITIME AIR WILL ALSO PERSIST...WITH
TEMPS CLOSER TO BUT STILL A COUPLE OF DEG ABOVE AVG.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHRTWV DROPPING INTO NRN MN WILL PASS THRU THE CWA AS A CLOSED H5
LOW ON WED. 12Z MODEL TIMING IS CONSISTENT AMONG THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF.
H85-H5 LAPSE RATES IN THE 5-6C/KM RANGE. DPVA SHOULD BE ABLE TO
OVERCOME THE WEAK CAP AROUND H7. AS A RESULT...WILL FCST SCT SHWRS
WED...ENDING FROM W TO E WED NGT AS THE UPR LOW SLOWLY EXITS. DEPTH
OF CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR AN ISOLD
LIGHTNING FLASH...ESPECIALLY OVER OR INVOF THE WATER WHERE THE WARM
AND MOIST BL WILL YIELD A SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE COLUMN.

SFC RIDGING EXTENDS SWD FROM ERN CANADA THU AND FRI. THIS WILL KEEP
A COOL NE-LY FLOW IN PLACE PRODUCING SEASONAL TEMPS. A MOIST MARINE
LAYER BLW THE DRY MID AND UPR LVLS WITH SUBSIDENCE...SO THE SETUP
WILL NOT BE CONDUCIVE TO ANY CONVECTION OR SIGNIFICANT PCPN. THE
MOST LIKELY SCENARIO WOULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES OR EVEN AREAS OF DZ.
HAVE INCLUDED CHC SPRINKLES WHERE THE GREATEST POOLING OF LLVL
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED ATTM.

MAIN PCPN EVEN IN THE LONG RANGE IS TAKING SHAPE FOR SAT. THE
PRIMARY DRIVER IS A STRONG UPR LOW OVER AK WHICH WILL DROP INTO THE
GREAT LAKES THRU THE PERIOD. STRONG RETURN FLOW FRI NGT PRODUCES
GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA FOR SAT. THE ASSOCIATED CDFNT
AND UPR DYNAMICS THEN PRODUCE A ROUND OF RAIN ON SAT. HAVE INCLUDED
LIKELY POPS IN THE FCST.

DRY ON SUN. A BLEND OF DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE DATA INDICATES
TEMPS WILL NOT GET OUT OF THE 60S. AS THE BROAD UPR LOW/TROF REACHES
THE AREA AROUND MON...THERE IS THE CHC THAT SOMETHING COULD DEVELOP
IN RESPONSE. ECMWF HAD A SFC LOW SPINNING UP...AND THE GFS HAS COLD
POOL TYPE SHWRS. HAVE INCLUDED SCHC POPS AND CLOUDY SKIES AS A
RESULT.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWEST THROUGH DAYBREAK...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY.

VFR. A FEW SPRINKLES OR ISOLATED -SHRA POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN TERMINALS OVERNIGHT.

IFR STRATUS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD CONTINUE OVER KGON
OVERNIGHT...WITH MVFR CIGS LIKELY DEVELOPING INTO KISP/KBDR/KHPN
LATE TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING. CONFIDENCE LOW ON STRATUS
DEVELOPING INTO NYC METRO TERMINALS TOWARDS DAYBREAK. STRATUS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT
POTENTIAL FOR IT TO LINGER INTO AFTERNOON ACROSS CT TERMINALS WITH
ISOLATED SHRA ACTIVITY.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOME E/NE IN THE WAKE OF COLD FRONT
OVERNIGHT. E/NE WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. WINDS
EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY RIGHT OF 040 MAG AND LEFT OF 130 MAG AT
METRO TERMINALS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUE NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER CIGS POSSIBLE. CHC -SHRA E-NE WINDS
AROUND 10 KT.
.WED...CHC MVFR CIGS/VSBYS/-SHRA. E-NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.THU...CHC MVFR MAINLY AM. NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.FRI...VFR. SE-S WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.SAT...RAIN LIKELY. CHC MVFR OR LOWER. SW WINDS AM BECMG WNW PM.
GUSTS 20-25KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH TUE. PERSISTENT/INCREASING E-NE FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN SCA
CONDS TUE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY LATE. TOO EARLY TO ISSUE SCA FOR THIS
TIME FRAME.

THESE CONDS COULD CONTINUE INTO THU...ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN AND
THE ERN SOUND/BAYS. WINDS AND WAVES WILL DECREASE ON FRI...ONLY TO
RAPIDLY BUILD AGAIN ON SAT WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A
CDFNT. WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS ON SUNDAY ATTM.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN EXPECTED THROUGH TUE NIGHT. A FEW TENTHS OF
AN INCH OF RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE WED-WED NGT. UP TO AN INCH OF
RAIN IS POSSIBLE ON SAT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/MET
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...JMC/GOODMAN/MET
HYDROLOGY...JMC/GOODMAN










000
FXUS61 KOKX 300249
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1049 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL THEN AFFECT THE NORTHEAST DURING MID WEEK...
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH ON SATURDAY...FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A SHORTWAVE AND VORT MAX MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WAS TRIGGERING
SOME LIGHT RAIN AND SPRINKLES ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY INTO
SOUTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT. MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WAS NOT
REACHING THE GROUND AT THIS TIME. OTHER VORT MAXES WILL BE
ROTATING THROUGH THE SHORTWAVE OVERNIGHT AND WILL PRODUCE
ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES ACROSS MUCH OF CONNECTICUT AND
SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK.

A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVING INTO SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT AND
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...TURNING
LOW LEVEL FLOW TO THE E-NE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES ALOFT WITH THE SLOW MOVING
UPPER TROUGH ON TUE...AND AHEAD OF A MORE POTENT UPPER LOW APCHG
FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES LATE DAY TUE INTO TUE NIGHT...SHOULD
MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND CHANCES FOR ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS
THROUGH THE PD. E-NE FLOW OF MARITIME AIR WILL ALSO PERSIST...WITH
TEMPS CLOSER TO BUT STILL A COUPLE OF DEG ABOVE AVG.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHRTWV DROPPING INTO NRN MN WILL PASS THRU THE CWA AS A CLOSED H5
LOW ON WED. 12Z MODEL TIMING IS CONSISTENT AMONG THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF.
H85-H5 LAPSE RATES IN THE 5-6C/KM RANGE. DPVA SHOULD BE ABLE TO
OVERCOME THE WEAK CAP AROUND H7. AS A RESULT...WILL FCST SCT SHWRS
WED...ENDING FROM W TO E WED NGT AS THE UPR LOW SLOWLY EXITS. DEPTH
OF CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR AN ISOLD
LIGHTNING FLASH...ESPECIALLY OVER OR INVOF THE WATER WHERE THE WARM
AND MOIST BL WILL YIELD A SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE COLUMN.

SFC RIDGING EXTENDS SWD FROM ERN CANADA THU AND FRI. THIS WILL KEEP
A COOL NE-LY FLOW IN PLACE PRODUCING SEASONAL TEMPS. A MOIST MARINE
LAYER BLW THE DRY MID AND UPR LVLS WITH SUBSIDENCE...SO THE SETUP
WILL NOT BE CONDUCIVE TO ANY CONVECTION OR SIGNIFICANT PCPN. THE
MOST LIKELY SCENARIO WOULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES OR EVEN AREAS OF DZ.
HAVE INCLUDED CHC SPRINKLES WHERE THE GREATEST POOLING OF LLVL
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED ATTM.

MAIN PCPN EVEN IN THE LONG RANGE IS TAKING SHAPE FOR SAT. THE
PRIMARY DRIVER IS A STRONG UPR LOW OVER AK WHICH WILL DROP INTO THE
GREAT LAKES THRU THE PERIOD. STRONG RETURN FLOW FRI NGT PRODUCES
GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA FOR SAT. THE ASSOCIATED CDFNT
AND UPR DYNAMICS THEN PRODUCE A ROUND OF RAIN ON SAT. HAVE INCLUDED
LIKELY POPS IN THE FCST.

DRY ON SUN. A BLEND OF DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE DATA INDICATES
TEMPS WILL NOT GET OUT OF THE 60S. AS THE BROAD UPR LOW/TROF REACHES
THE AREA AROUND MON...THERE IS THE CHC THAT SOMETHING COULD DEVELOP
IN RESPONSE. ECMWF HAD A SFC LOW SPINNING UP...AND THE GFS HAS COLD
POOL TYPE SHWRS. HAVE INCLUDED SCHC POPS AND CLOUDY SKIES AS A
RESULT.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWEST THROUGH DAYBREAK...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY.

VFR. A FEW SPRINKLES OR ISOLATED -SHRA POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN TERMINALS OVERNIGHT.

IFR STRATUS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD CONTINUE OVER KGON
OVERNIGHT...WITH MVFR CIGS LIKELY DEVELOPING INTO KISP/KBDR/KHPN
LATE TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING. CONFIDENCE LOW ON STRATUS
DEVELOPING INTO NYC METRO TERMINALS TOWARDS DAYBREAK. STRATUS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT
POTENTIAL FOR IT TO LINGER INTO AFTERNOON ACROSS CT TERMINALS WITH
ISOLATED SHRA ACTIVITY.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOME E/NE IN THE WAKE OF COLD FRONT
OVERNIGHT. E/NE WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. WINDS
EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY RIGHT OF 040 MAG AND LEFT OF 130 MAG AT
METRO TERMINALS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUE NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER CIGS POSSIBLE. CHC -SHRA E-NE WINDS
AROUND 10 KT.
.WED...CHC MVFR CIGS/VSBYS/-SHRA. E-NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.THU...CHC MVFR MAINLY AM. NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.FRI...VFR. SE-S WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.SAT...RAIN LIKELY. CHC MVFR OR LOWER. SW WINDS AM BECMG WNW PM.
GUSTS 20-25KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH TUE. PERSISTENT/INCREASING E-NE FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN SCA
CONDS TUE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY LATE. TOO EARLY TO ISSUE SCA FOR THIS
TIME FRAME.

THESE CONDS COULD CONTINUE INTO THU...ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN AND
THE ERN SOUND/BAYS. WINDS AND WAVES WILL DECREASE ON FRI...ONLY TO
RAPIDLY BUILD AGAIN ON SAT WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A
CDFNT. WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS ON SUNDAY ATTM.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN EXPECTED THROUGH TUE NIGHT. A FEW TENTHS OF
AN INCH OF RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE WED-WED NGT. UP TO AN INCH OF
RAIN IS POSSIBLE ON SAT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/MET
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...JMC/GOODMAN/MET
HYDROLOGY...JMC/GOODMAN










000
FXUS61 KALY 300220
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1020 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT AND ON
TUESDAY...BRINGING SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR. THE COMBINATION OF THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM THE WEST
WILL ALSO RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES REMAINING A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MUCH
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1020 PM EDT...A SIDE-DOOR COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY
ADVANCE WESTWARD ACROSS THROUGH CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND AT THIS TIME
EVIDENCED BY HIGHER PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
LINE AND SURFACE WINDS SHIFTING TO A NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION
BEHIND THE FRONT. IT WILL TAKE A FEW MORE HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO
WORK INTO OUR AREA...WITH WESTERN NEW ENGLAND EXPERIENCING THE
EFFECTS OF THE COLD FRONT FIRST NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT...THEN ADVANCING WESTWARD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

THE STREAM OF MID/HI LEVEL CLOUDS SURGING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE
NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO AND FROM OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT. SIMILAR TO TODAY...THIS CLOUDINESS WILL TEND TO
THIN AND RECEDE AT TIMES NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY...BUT MOST OF
THE REGION WILL AVERAGE MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR TONIGHT AS LOWER STRATUS
CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT IN WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT PASSAGE. ALTHOUGH RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME PRECIP ALOFT
/VIRGA/...THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE TOO DRY TO ALLOW
ANY OF IT TO REACH THE GROUND. DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER...TEMPS
TONIGHT WILL BE A LITTLE MILDER...WITH LOWS FORECAST TO BE IN THE
UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE BACKDOOR BOUNDARY WILL DROP SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION BY
TUESDAY...AND INTERACT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. THIS WILL RESULT
IN SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION...BUT NO WIDESPREAD PCPN IS
EXPECTED DUE TO THE WEAKNESS OF BOTH SYSTEMS. HAVE ONLY FORECAST 20
TO 40 PERCENT POPS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ALSO EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD. THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. HAVE ONLY INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST AREAS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE
DECREASING TO PARTLY CLOUDY.

TEMPS WILL CONTINUE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WILL BE BETWEEN 65 AND 75. LOWS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHTS WILL BE BETWEEN 45 AND 55.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT ON THURSDAY WITH OUR REGION UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...WITH A SURFACE HIGH LOCATED OVER
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES PROVIDING A WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW. SO DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING ABOVE NORMAL.
ON FRIDAY A POTENT UPPER TROUGH MIGRATES EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES...WITH A DEVELOPING SURFACE WAVE IN SOUTHEAST CANADA. WITH THE
SURFACE RIDGE HOLDING ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ESPECIALLY LATE IN
THE DAY. 12Z GFS/ECMWF IN AGREEMENT WITH HOLDING OFF MUCH OF THE
RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT...SO WILL
ONLY MENTION LOW CHANCE POPS WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY THROUGH
SUNSET.

THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE FOR A PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD MODERATE
RAINFALL FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSS OUR REGION. GOOD MOISTURE
INFLUX WITH 40+ KT LOW LEVEL SOUTHERN FLOW ALONG WITH GUIDANCE
INDICATING A POSSIBLE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD
FRONT AS IT PASSES THROUGH...WHICH COULD ENHANCE RAINFALL. AS OF NOW
IT LOOKS LIKE A AROUND 0.50-1.00 INCHES OF RAIN MAY OCCUR BUT DUE TO
THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM GREATER AMOUNTS ARE NOT
LIKELY. RAINFALL SHOULD TAPER OFF ON SATURDAY...WITH SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES NOTED IN MODELS. AT LEAST THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY MAY
END UP DRYING...ESPECIALLY FROM ALBANY WESTWARD.

A MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURE REGIME WILL THEN SET UP BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD ON
MONDAY...AS A PATTERN SHIFT IS FORECAST TO OCCUR WITH A LONG WAVE
TROUGH SETTING UP ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. FROM SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY...THERE WILL BE PERIODIC CHANCES FOR A FEW SHOWERS AS
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH. THE BEST CHANCES WILL
BE OVER THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY WHERE LAKE
ENHANCED SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DUE TO LAKE-AIR TEMP
DIFFERENTIALS INCREASING WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT MOVING IN.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE TAF SITES FROM THE EAST THIS
EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL THEN MOVE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE TAF SITES
BY TUESDAY MORNING...ALLOWING FOR AN ONSHORE FLOW OF COOL AND
MOIST AIR TO GRADUALLY ADVECT IN FROM EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.

HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS CURRENTLY OVER THE TERMINALS...WITH
SIGNIFICANT BREAKS IN THIS CLOUD DECK AT KGFL WHERE SOME FOG HAS
ALREADY DEVELOPED EARLY THIS EVENING. WILL MENTION PREVAILING MVFR
WITH OCCASIONAL IFR AT KGFL FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING BEFORE
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND PROVIDES SOME MIXING WHICH SHOULD
INHIBIT THE FOG. AS THE FRONT PUSHES WESTWARD ACROSS THE
TERMINALS...CIGS WILL GRADUALLY DROP TO MVFR RANGE AND POSSIBLY
EVEN IFR LEVELS LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER ELEVATION
SITE KPSF.

CIGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN MVFR RANGE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY
MORNING...AND POSSIBLY WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW REMAINS ONSHORE FROM A E-SE DIRECTION. BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR
CIGS PERSISTING WILL BE AT KPSF.

WINDS WILL BE INITIALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...SHIFTING TO THE
EAST AROUND 5 KT OVERNIGHT...THEN EAST-SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH VALUES WILL RECOVER TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD
DEW FORMATION AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.

RH VALUES WILL ONLY DROP TO 60 TO 70 PERCENT ON TUESDAY WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A FEW RAIN SHOWERS AROUND...MAINLY FOR
WESTERN/SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION. S-SE WINDS WILL BE AROUND 5
TO 10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC RELATED ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY FOR MOST OF THIS WEEK. THE ONLY
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL COME AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS INTO THE
AREA AND STALLS ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION. WITH THIS
BOUNDARY AROUND...AND SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANY RAIN SHOWERS THAT OCCUR WILL HAVE LITTLE OR
NO EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. MOST RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE
RUNNING BELOW NORMAL...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/JPV
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM








000
FXUS61 KALY 300220
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1020 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT AND ON
TUESDAY...BRINGING SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR. THE COMBINATION OF THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM THE WEST
WILL ALSO RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES REMAINING A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MUCH
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1020 PM EDT...A SIDE-DOOR COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY
ADVANCE WESTWARD ACROSS THROUGH CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND AT THIS TIME
EVIDENCED BY HIGHER PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
LINE AND SURFACE WINDS SHIFTING TO A NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION
BEHIND THE FRONT. IT WILL TAKE A FEW MORE HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO
WORK INTO OUR AREA...WITH WESTERN NEW ENGLAND EXPERIENCING THE
EFFECTS OF THE COLD FRONT FIRST NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT...THEN ADVANCING WESTWARD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

THE STREAM OF MID/HI LEVEL CLOUDS SURGING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE
NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO AND FROM OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT. SIMILAR TO TODAY...THIS CLOUDINESS WILL TEND TO
THIN AND RECEDE AT TIMES NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY...BUT MOST OF
THE REGION WILL AVERAGE MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR TONIGHT AS LOWER STRATUS
CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT IN WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT PASSAGE. ALTHOUGH RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME PRECIP ALOFT
/VIRGA/...THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE TOO DRY TO ALLOW
ANY OF IT TO REACH THE GROUND. DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER...TEMPS
TONIGHT WILL BE A LITTLE MILDER...WITH LOWS FORECAST TO BE IN THE
UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE BACKDOOR BOUNDARY WILL DROP SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION BY
TUESDAY...AND INTERACT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. THIS WILL RESULT
IN SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION...BUT NO WIDESPREAD PCPN IS
EXPECTED DUE TO THE WEAKNESS OF BOTH SYSTEMS. HAVE ONLY FORECAST 20
TO 40 PERCENT POPS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ALSO EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD. THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. HAVE ONLY INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST AREAS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE
DECREASING TO PARTLY CLOUDY.

TEMPS WILL CONTINUE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WILL BE BETWEEN 65 AND 75. LOWS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHTS WILL BE BETWEEN 45 AND 55.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT ON THURSDAY WITH OUR REGION UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...WITH A SURFACE HIGH LOCATED OVER
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES PROVIDING A WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW. SO DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING ABOVE NORMAL.
ON FRIDAY A POTENT UPPER TROUGH MIGRATES EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES...WITH A DEVELOPING SURFACE WAVE IN SOUTHEAST CANADA. WITH THE
SURFACE RIDGE HOLDING ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ESPECIALLY LATE IN
THE DAY. 12Z GFS/ECMWF IN AGREEMENT WITH HOLDING OFF MUCH OF THE
RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT...SO WILL
ONLY MENTION LOW CHANCE POPS WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY THROUGH
SUNSET.

THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE FOR A PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD MODERATE
RAINFALL FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSS OUR REGION. GOOD MOISTURE
INFLUX WITH 40+ KT LOW LEVEL SOUTHERN FLOW ALONG WITH GUIDANCE
INDICATING A POSSIBLE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD
FRONT AS IT PASSES THROUGH...WHICH COULD ENHANCE RAINFALL. AS OF NOW
IT LOOKS LIKE A AROUND 0.50-1.00 INCHES OF RAIN MAY OCCUR BUT DUE TO
THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM GREATER AMOUNTS ARE NOT
LIKELY. RAINFALL SHOULD TAPER OFF ON SATURDAY...WITH SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES NOTED IN MODELS. AT LEAST THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY MAY
END UP DRYING...ESPECIALLY FROM ALBANY WESTWARD.

A MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURE REGIME WILL THEN SET UP BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD ON
MONDAY...AS A PATTERN SHIFT IS FORECAST TO OCCUR WITH A LONG WAVE
TROUGH SETTING UP ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. FROM SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY...THERE WILL BE PERIODIC CHANCES FOR A FEW SHOWERS AS
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH. THE BEST CHANCES WILL
BE OVER THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY WHERE LAKE
ENHANCED SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DUE TO LAKE-AIR TEMP
DIFFERENTIALS INCREASING WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT MOVING IN.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE TAF SITES FROM THE EAST THIS
EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL THEN MOVE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE TAF SITES
BY TUESDAY MORNING...ALLOWING FOR AN ONSHORE FLOW OF COOL AND
MOIST AIR TO GRADUALLY ADVECT IN FROM EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.

HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS CURRENTLY OVER THE TERMINALS...WITH
SIGNIFICANT BREAKS IN THIS CLOUD DECK AT KGFL WHERE SOME FOG HAS
ALREADY DEVELOPED EARLY THIS EVENING. WILL MENTION PREVAILING MVFR
WITH OCCASIONAL IFR AT KGFL FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING BEFORE
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND PROVIDES SOME MIXING WHICH SHOULD
INHIBIT THE FOG. AS THE FRONT PUSHES WESTWARD ACROSS THE
TERMINALS...CIGS WILL GRADUALLY DROP TO MVFR RANGE AND POSSIBLY
EVEN IFR LEVELS LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER ELEVATION
SITE KPSF.

CIGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN MVFR RANGE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY
MORNING...AND POSSIBLY WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW REMAINS ONSHORE FROM A E-SE DIRECTION. BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR
CIGS PERSISTING WILL BE AT KPSF.

WINDS WILL BE INITIALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...SHIFTING TO THE
EAST AROUND 5 KT OVERNIGHT...THEN EAST-SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH VALUES WILL RECOVER TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD
DEW FORMATION AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.

RH VALUES WILL ONLY DROP TO 60 TO 70 PERCENT ON TUESDAY WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A FEW RAIN SHOWERS AROUND...MAINLY FOR
WESTERN/SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION. S-SE WINDS WILL BE AROUND 5
TO 10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC RELATED ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY FOR MOST OF THIS WEEK. THE ONLY
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL COME AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS INTO THE
AREA AND STALLS ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION. WITH THIS
BOUNDARY AROUND...AND SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANY RAIN SHOWERS THAT OCCUR WILL HAVE LITTLE OR
NO EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. MOST RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE
RUNNING BELOW NORMAL...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/JPV
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM








000
FXUS61 KALY 300220
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1020 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT AND ON
TUESDAY...BRINGING SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR. THE COMBINATION OF THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM THE WEST
WILL ALSO RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES REMAINING A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MUCH
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1020 PM EDT...A SIDE-DOOR COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY
ADVANCE WESTWARD ACROSS THROUGH CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND AT THIS TIME
EVIDENCED BY HIGHER PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
LINE AND SURFACE WINDS SHIFTING TO A NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION
BEHIND THE FRONT. IT WILL TAKE A FEW MORE HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO
WORK INTO OUR AREA...WITH WESTERN NEW ENGLAND EXPERIENCING THE
EFFECTS OF THE COLD FRONT FIRST NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT...THEN ADVANCING WESTWARD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

THE STREAM OF MID/HI LEVEL CLOUDS SURGING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE
NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO AND FROM OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT. SIMILAR TO TODAY...THIS CLOUDINESS WILL TEND TO
THIN AND RECEDE AT TIMES NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY...BUT MOST OF
THE REGION WILL AVERAGE MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR TONIGHT AS LOWER STRATUS
CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT IN WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT PASSAGE. ALTHOUGH RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME PRECIP ALOFT
/VIRGA/...THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE TOO DRY TO ALLOW
ANY OF IT TO REACH THE GROUND. DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER...TEMPS
TONIGHT WILL BE A LITTLE MILDER...WITH LOWS FORECAST TO BE IN THE
UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE BACKDOOR BOUNDARY WILL DROP SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION BY
TUESDAY...AND INTERACT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. THIS WILL RESULT
IN SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION...BUT NO WIDESPREAD PCPN IS
EXPECTED DUE TO THE WEAKNESS OF BOTH SYSTEMS. HAVE ONLY FORECAST 20
TO 40 PERCENT POPS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ALSO EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD. THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. HAVE ONLY INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST AREAS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE
DECREASING TO PARTLY CLOUDY.

TEMPS WILL CONTINUE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WILL BE BETWEEN 65 AND 75. LOWS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHTS WILL BE BETWEEN 45 AND 55.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT ON THURSDAY WITH OUR REGION UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...WITH A SURFACE HIGH LOCATED OVER
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES PROVIDING A WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW. SO DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING ABOVE NORMAL.
ON FRIDAY A POTENT UPPER TROUGH MIGRATES EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES...WITH A DEVELOPING SURFACE WAVE IN SOUTHEAST CANADA. WITH THE
SURFACE RIDGE HOLDING ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ESPECIALLY LATE IN
THE DAY. 12Z GFS/ECMWF IN AGREEMENT WITH HOLDING OFF MUCH OF THE
RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT...SO WILL
ONLY MENTION LOW CHANCE POPS WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY THROUGH
SUNSET.

THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE FOR A PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD MODERATE
RAINFALL FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSS OUR REGION. GOOD MOISTURE
INFLUX WITH 40+ KT LOW LEVEL SOUTHERN FLOW ALONG WITH GUIDANCE
INDICATING A POSSIBLE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD
FRONT AS IT PASSES THROUGH...WHICH COULD ENHANCE RAINFALL. AS OF NOW
IT LOOKS LIKE A AROUND 0.50-1.00 INCHES OF RAIN MAY OCCUR BUT DUE TO
THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM GREATER AMOUNTS ARE NOT
LIKELY. RAINFALL SHOULD TAPER OFF ON SATURDAY...WITH SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES NOTED IN MODELS. AT LEAST THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY MAY
END UP DRYING...ESPECIALLY FROM ALBANY WESTWARD.

A MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURE REGIME WILL THEN SET UP BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD ON
MONDAY...AS A PATTERN SHIFT IS FORECAST TO OCCUR WITH A LONG WAVE
TROUGH SETTING UP ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. FROM SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY...THERE WILL BE PERIODIC CHANCES FOR A FEW SHOWERS AS
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH. THE BEST CHANCES WILL
BE OVER THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY WHERE LAKE
ENHANCED SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DUE TO LAKE-AIR TEMP
DIFFERENTIALS INCREASING WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT MOVING IN.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE TAF SITES FROM THE EAST THIS
EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL THEN MOVE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE TAF SITES
BY TUESDAY MORNING...ALLOWING FOR AN ONSHORE FLOW OF COOL AND
MOIST AIR TO GRADUALLY ADVECT IN FROM EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.

HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS CURRENTLY OVER THE TERMINALS...WITH
SIGNIFICANT BREAKS IN THIS CLOUD DECK AT KGFL WHERE SOME FOG HAS
ALREADY DEVELOPED EARLY THIS EVENING. WILL MENTION PREVAILING MVFR
WITH OCCASIONAL IFR AT KGFL FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING BEFORE
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND PROVIDES SOME MIXING WHICH SHOULD
INHIBIT THE FOG. AS THE FRONT PUSHES WESTWARD ACROSS THE
TERMINALS...CIGS WILL GRADUALLY DROP TO MVFR RANGE AND POSSIBLY
EVEN IFR LEVELS LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER ELEVATION
SITE KPSF.

CIGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN MVFR RANGE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY
MORNING...AND POSSIBLY WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW REMAINS ONSHORE FROM A E-SE DIRECTION. BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR
CIGS PERSISTING WILL BE AT KPSF.

WINDS WILL BE INITIALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...SHIFTING TO THE
EAST AROUND 5 KT OVERNIGHT...THEN EAST-SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH VALUES WILL RECOVER TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD
DEW FORMATION AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.

RH VALUES WILL ONLY DROP TO 60 TO 70 PERCENT ON TUESDAY WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A FEW RAIN SHOWERS AROUND...MAINLY FOR
WESTERN/SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION. S-SE WINDS WILL BE AROUND 5
TO 10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC RELATED ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY FOR MOST OF THIS WEEK. THE ONLY
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL COME AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS INTO THE
AREA AND STALLS ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION. WITH THIS
BOUNDARY AROUND...AND SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANY RAIN SHOWERS THAT OCCUR WILL HAVE LITTLE OR
NO EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. MOST RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE
RUNNING BELOW NORMAL...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/JPV
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM








000
FXUS61 KALY 300220
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1020 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT AND ON
TUESDAY...BRINGING SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR. THE COMBINATION OF THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM THE WEST
WILL ALSO RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES REMAINING A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MUCH
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1020 PM EDT...A SIDE-DOOR COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY
ADVANCE WESTWARD ACROSS THROUGH CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND AT THIS TIME
EVIDENCED BY HIGHER PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
LINE AND SURFACE WINDS SHIFTING TO A NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION
BEHIND THE FRONT. IT WILL TAKE A FEW MORE HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO
WORK INTO OUR AREA...WITH WESTERN NEW ENGLAND EXPERIENCING THE
EFFECTS OF THE COLD FRONT FIRST NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT...THEN ADVANCING WESTWARD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

THE STREAM OF MID/HI LEVEL CLOUDS SURGING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE
NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO AND FROM OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT. SIMILAR TO TODAY...THIS CLOUDINESS WILL TEND TO
THIN AND RECEDE AT TIMES NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY...BUT MOST OF
THE REGION WILL AVERAGE MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR TONIGHT AS LOWER STRATUS
CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT IN WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT PASSAGE. ALTHOUGH RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME PRECIP ALOFT
/VIRGA/...THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE TOO DRY TO ALLOW
ANY OF IT TO REACH THE GROUND. DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER...TEMPS
TONIGHT WILL BE A LITTLE MILDER...WITH LOWS FORECAST TO BE IN THE
UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE BACKDOOR BOUNDARY WILL DROP SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION BY
TUESDAY...AND INTERACT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. THIS WILL RESULT
IN SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION...BUT NO WIDESPREAD PCPN IS
EXPECTED DUE TO THE WEAKNESS OF BOTH SYSTEMS. HAVE ONLY FORECAST 20
TO 40 PERCENT POPS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ALSO EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD. THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. HAVE ONLY INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST AREAS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE
DECREASING TO PARTLY CLOUDY.

TEMPS WILL CONTINUE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WILL BE BETWEEN 65 AND 75. LOWS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHTS WILL BE BETWEEN 45 AND 55.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT ON THURSDAY WITH OUR REGION UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...WITH A SURFACE HIGH LOCATED OVER
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES PROVIDING A WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW. SO DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING ABOVE NORMAL.
ON FRIDAY A POTENT UPPER TROUGH MIGRATES EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES...WITH A DEVELOPING SURFACE WAVE IN SOUTHEAST CANADA. WITH THE
SURFACE RIDGE HOLDING ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ESPECIALLY LATE IN
THE DAY. 12Z GFS/ECMWF IN AGREEMENT WITH HOLDING OFF MUCH OF THE
RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT...SO WILL
ONLY MENTION LOW CHANCE POPS WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY THROUGH
SUNSET.

THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE FOR A PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD MODERATE
RAINFALL FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSS OUR REGION. GOOD MOISTURE
INFLUX WITH 40+ KT LOW LEVEL SOUTHERN FLOW ALONG WITH GUIDANCE
INDICATING A POSSIBLE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD
FRONT AS IT PASSES THROUGH...WHICH COULD ENHANCE RAINFALL. AS OF NOW
IT LOOKS LIKE A AROUND 0.50-1.00 INCHES OF RAIN MAY OCCUR BUT DUE TO
THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM GREATER AMOUNTS ARE NOT
LIKELY. RAINFALL SHOULD TAPER OFF ON SATURDAY...WITH SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES NOTED IN MODELS. AT LEAST THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY MAY
END UP DRYING...ESPECIALLY FROM ALBANY WESTWARD.

A MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURE REGIME WILL THEN SET UP BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD ON
MONDAY...AS A PATTERN SHIFT IS FORECAST TO OCCUR WITH A LONG WAVE
TROUGH SETTING UP ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. FROM SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY...THERE WILL BE PERIODIC CHANCES FOR A FEW SHOWERS AS
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH. THE BEST CHANCES WILL
BE OVER THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY WHERE LAKE
ENHANCED SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DUE TO LAKE-AIR TEMP
DIFFERENTIALS INCREASING WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT MOVING IN.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE TAF SITES FROM THE EAST THIS
EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL THEN MOVE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE TAF SITES
BY TUESDAY MORNING...ALLOWING FOR AN ONSHORE FLOW OF COOL AND
MOIST AIR TO GRADUALLY ADVECT IN FROM EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.

HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS CURRENTLY OVER THE TERMINALS...WITH
SIGNIFICANT BREAKS IN THIS CLOUD DECK AT KGFL WHERE SOME FOG HAS
ALREADY DEVELOPED EARLY THIS EVENING. WILL MENTION PREVAILING MVFR
WITH OCCASIONAL IFR AT KGFL FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING BEFORE
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND PROVIDES SOME MIXING WHICH SHOULD
INHIBIT THE FOG. AS THE FRONT PUSHES WESTWARD ACROSS THE
TERMINALS...CIGS WILL GRADUALLY DROP TO MVFR RANGE AND POSSIBLY
EVEN IFR LEVELS LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER ELEVATION
SITE KPSF.

CIGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN MVFR RANGE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY
MORNING...AND POSSIBLY WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW REMAINS ONSHORE FROM A E-SE DIRECTION. BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR
CIGS PERSISTING WILL BE AT KPSF.

WINDS WILL BE INITIALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...SHIFTING TO THE
EAST AROUND 5 KT OVERNIGHT...THEN EAST-SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH VALUES WILL RECOVER TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD
DEW FORMATION AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.

RH VALUES WILL ONLY DROP TO 60 TO 70 PERCENT ON TUESDAY WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A FEW RAIN SHOWERS AROUND...MAINLY FOR
WESTERN/SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION. S-SE WINDS WILL BE AROUND 5
TO 10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC RELATED ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY FOR MOST OF THIS WEEK. THE ONLY
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL COME AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS INTO THE
AREA AND STALLS ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION. WITH THIS
BOUNDARY AROUND...AND SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANY RAIN SHOWERS THAT OCCUR WILL HAVE LITTLE OR
NO EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. MOST RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE
RUNNING BELOW NORMAL...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/JPV
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM








000
FXUS61 KBOX 300201
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1001 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT THAT DROPPED THROUGH THE REGION EARLIER TODAY WILL
BRING COOL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK AS PERSISTENT
NORTHEAST WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE. ONE OR TWO WEAK WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE REGION. AN
APPROACHING FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO AFFECT
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...MADE ONLY MINOR UPDATES TO THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE LATEST TRENDS. THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO HAVE MOVED ALL THE
WAY DOWN THE EAST COAST OF MASSACHUSETTS AS WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO
THE NE. THE FRONT IS STILL WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH WESTERN AND
CENTRAL CONNECTICUT. WHILE FOG SEEMS TO BE CONFINED TO EASTERN
MASS AT THIS TIME...LOW CLOUDS HAVE SPREAD WESTWARD. THIS AND
LIGHT DRIZZLE ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE SW MOVEMENT AND OUT OF THE BOX CWA
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...COOLER MARINE FLOW OFF THE GULF OF
MAINE WHERE SST/S ARE AROUND 60F WILL BE UNDERCUTTING WARMER
MOIST AIR JUST ABOVE THE SFC. THE REMNANTS OF A MID LVL RIDGE IS
ALSO PRESENT AS A MID LOW-MID LVL DRY LAYER. THEREFORE...LOOKS
LIKE A GOOD SETUP FOR LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE TO FORM ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FROM NE TO SW. LIKED PREVIOUS
FORECASTER/S THINKING ON THIS SO FOLLOWED THEIR LEAD FAIRLY
CLOSELY. IT LOOKS LIKE...AT LEAST THANKS TO THE CONTINUED N-NE
FLOW THAT THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH NEAR SFC MIXING TO PRECLUDE FOG
IN FAVOR OF DRIZZLE CAUSING VSBY REDUCTIONS. HOWEVER...A FEW
PATCHES OF DENSE FOG CAN/T BE RULED THANKS TO THE COOLER MOIST
FLOW MOVING INLAND. BY EARLY MORNING...A WEAK INVERTED TROF LOOKS
TO DEVELOP BETWEEN THE OFFSHORE SYSTEM MOVING S OF THE REGION AND
THE UPPER LVL CUTOFF. THIS MAY LEAD TO AN INCREASING THREAT FOR
-SHRA RATHER THAN DRIZZLE...PARTICULARLY FOR EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA...REFLECT THIS AS INCREASING POPS TO CHANCE
OVERNIGHT.

LOWS OVERNIGHT DIP BACK INTO INTO THE 50S...NOT AS COOL AS WOULD
BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE OVERNIGHT CLOUD COVER AND MOIST AIR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...
INVERTED TROF AND N-NE FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE MORNING
SO IT MAY TAKE SOME TIME FOR DRIZZLE...FOG AND LOWER CLOUDS TO
COMPLETELY COME TO AN END. IN FACT...-SHRA MAY LINGER INTO THE
AFTERNOON IN THE E. HOWEVER...THANKS TO SOME DIURNAL BL
MIXING...SUSPECT THAT THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE DRIZZLE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH ONLY THE WIDELY SCT -SHRA IN THE E. NOT
EXPECTING A WASHOUT BY ANY MEANS AS THERE IS LITTLE
BAROCLINICITY. OTHERWISE...HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL.
ALTHOUGH EVEN 2M TEMPS HAVE WARMED IN RECENT RUNS INTO THE LOW-MID
60S.

TOMORROW NIGHT...
FAIRLY SIMILAR SETUP TO TONIGHT ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE
FOR PRECIP AS UPPER LVL CUTOFF BEGINS TO SHIFT WITH IT/S BASE
MOVING INTO THE REGION BY MORNING. THEREFORE...GIVEN SIMILAR
SETUP AND COLUMN ACROSS THE AREA...SUSPECT THERE WILL BE SOME
DRIZZLE...FOG AND SHOWERS CONTINUING WITH MIN TEMPS ONCE AGAIN
FALLING BACK INTO THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* NORTHEAST WINDS AND CLOUDS THIS WEEK WILL KEEP TEMPS NEAR NORMAL
* CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE ON WED AND THU
* COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SATURDAY WILL BRING PRECIP TO THE REGION

OVERVIEW...

FALL IS HERE TO STAY FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS 12Z GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. OVERALL THE 12Z
GUIDANCE IS IN GENERALLY AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
WITH ISSUES DOWN AT THE SURFACE. THE TREND FOR THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE
IS THAT THE EC IS MORE AMPLIFIED WHERE THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
IN THE OVERALL PATTERN. THE CMC IS ALSO LESS AMPLIFIED THEN THE EC
WHERE THE UKMET IS THE IN BETWEEN MODEL. BECAUSE OF THE
DIFFERENCES IN GUIDANCE DID A MODEL BLEND AS WELL AS HPC FORECAST
FOR THE EXTENDED.

HAVE A HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT AVERAGE TEMPS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
REGION THIS WEEK. LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE PRECIP POTENTIAL FOR WED AND
THURSDAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIP WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY BUT
STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND WHO WILL SEE THE HIGHER
QPF.

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CUT OFF RIGHT OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
DURING THIS TIME FRAME...KEEPING A SURFACE TROUGH/NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW OVER THE REGION. THIS LOW WILL BRING A FEW SHORTWAVES ACROSS
THE REGION INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR SCT SHOWERS. EASTERN MA
HAS THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE ACCUMULATING PRECIP ESPECIALLY ON WED
INTO WED NIGHT. ANTICIPATE DRIZZLE AND FOG FOR THURSDAY ESP IN
EASTERN AREAS AS UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO MOVE OFFSHORE AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE INCHES EASTWARD INTO THE REGION. THUNDER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED ON WED AS THE MARINE LAYER WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE
STABLE AND GUIDANCE IS NOT SHOWING ANY INSTABILITY AT THIS TIME.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIMEFRAME.

FRIDAY...
QUICK MOVING RIDGE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR RETURN FLOW AND TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S. DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL AS WE WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS.

WEEKEND...
STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY AND IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL PUSH
A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION AND BRING SOME MUCH NEEDED
RAINFALL. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO THE DETAILS OF
THIS SYSTEM AS THE EC SEEMS TO BE OUT OF PHASE WITH THE MAJORITY
OF THE GUIDANCE. THEREFORE TRENDED MORE TOWARDS THE 12Z GFS AND
ENSEMBLES FOR THIS PORTION. NOTE THAT IT APPEARS THAT THE ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM DOES GET STRETCHED AND IS NOT AS
ROBUST AS IT IS ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK. THE OTHER POINT IS THAT
THE RIDGE ON FRIDAY...HOW STRONG WILL IT GET AND HOW MUCH DRY AIR
WILL LINGER AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION ON SATURDAY. RIGHT
NOW PLAN ON KEEPING CHC POPS TO THE SOUTH AND LIKELY POPS TO THE
NORTH...CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY. HOPEFULLY GUIDANCE WILL
LINE UP WITHIN THE COMING DAYS.

TRENDING WITH THE GFS/CMC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON SUNDAY
BUT STILL COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS LINGER EARLY SUN MORNING
ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. CAA BEHIND THE FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPS
BELOW AVERAGE WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF LOWER CATEGORIES THIS EVENING.

INTO TONIGHT...
VFR WILL GRADUALLY DIP TO MVFR WITH POCKETS OF IFR THROUGH THE
EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT. LOW CIGS WITH SOME DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL
START IN NE MA AND SE NH...THEN GRADUALLY MOVE TOWARD THE
SW...REACHING THE CT VALLEY AND S COASTS THE LATEST.
THEN...MVFR/IFR REMAINS IN CONTROL THE REST OF THE NIGHT UNDER
PERSISTENT NELY WINDS.

TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...
GENERALLY MORE OF THE SAME...ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY
MAY IMPROVE TO VFR MID MORNING-MID DAY. SOME SHOWERS /HEAVIER
THAN THE OVERNIGHT DRIZZLE...BUT NOT TOO HEAVY/ ARE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE DAY ACROSS E MA AND RI. ANOTHER ROUND OF
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AND POSSIBLE DRIZZLE EXPECTED TOMORROW NIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. MVFR/IFR CIGS OVERNIGHT.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE
ON EXACT DETAILS.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN
SHOWERS. PATCHY IFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE ACROSS EAST COASTAL SECTIONS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAY SEE LEFTOVER MVFR
CIG/VSBYS EARLY THU ALONG THE E COAST BUT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
FROM WEST TO EAST ON THURSDAY TO VFR. FRIDAY WILL BE VFR.

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR TO LOCAL
IFR IN A LINE OF SHOWERS MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGHOUT THE
DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE NIGHT.

TONIGHT...
WINDS SHIFT NE ACROSS ALL WATERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH
A FEW GUSTS NEAR 25 KT AND SEAS 4-5 FT MAINLY OVER THE WATERS
SURROUNDING CAPE ANN. ELSEWHERE...LESS OF A RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ALTHOUGH INCREASING RISK FOR DRIZZLE AND FOG
AND LOWER VSBYS.

TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...
NE FLOW CONTINUES. THIS PROLONGED NE FETCH WILL YIELD A GRADUALLY
BUILDING SWELL WHICH COULD APPROACH 5 FT BY LATE TOMORROW NIGHT.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY ONCE AGAIN BE NEEDED FOR THIS RISK.
OTHERWISE...NE WIND GUSTS GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 20 KT. ANOTHER
ROUND OF FOG AND DRIZZLE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS TOMORROW NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE WATERS
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. COMBINED WITH EASTERLY SWELL WILL HELP
BUILD SEAS UP TO 5-7 FEET. SCA WILL BE NEEDED.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE WATERS ON FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR
BOTH SEAS AND WINDS TO RELAX. LINGERING SEAS OF 5 OR 6 FEET WILL KEEP
THE SCA IN PLACE FOR THE OUTER WATERS.

APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY WILL ALLOW FOR RETURN FLOW AND
INCREASE IN GUSTS...CLOSE TO 30 KTS. SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD AHEAD OF
AND BEHIND THE FRONT...NEAR 7 FEET. SCA WILL BE NEEDED.

MAY EXPERIENCE A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 1.5 FEET DURING MIDWEEK BUT
THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE NOT ALL THAT HIGH.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DOODY/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...DOODY/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...DOODY/DUNTEN
MARINE...DOODY/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 300201
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1001 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT THAT DROPPED THROUGH THE REGION EARLIER TODAY WILL
BRING COOL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK AS PERSISTENT
NORTHEAST WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE. ONE OR TWO WEAK WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE REGION. AN
APPROACHING FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO AFFECT
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...MADE ONLY MINOR UPDATES TO THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE LATEST TRENDS. THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO HAVE MOVED ALL THE
WAY DOWN THE EAST COAST OF MASSACHUSETTS AS WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO
THE NE. THE FRONT IS STILL WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH WESTERN AND
CENTRAL CONNECTICUT. WHILE FOG SEEMS TO BE CONFINED TO EASTERN
MASS AT THIS TIME...LOW CLOUDS HAVE SPREAD WESTWARD. THIS AND
LIGHT DRIZZLE ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE SW MOVEMENT AND OUT OF THE BOX CWA
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...COOLER MARINE FLOW OFF THE GULF OF
MAINE WHERE SST/S ARE AROUND 60F WILL BE UNDERCUTTING WARMER
MOIST AIR JUST ABOVE THE SFC. THE REMNANTS OF A MID LVL RIDGE IS
ALSO PRESENT AS A MID LOW-MID LVL DRY LAYER. THEREFORE...LOOKS
LIKE A GOOD SETUP FOR LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE TO FORM ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FROM NE TO SW. LIKED PREVIOUS
FORECASTER/S THINKING ON THIS SO FOLLOWED THEIR LEAD FAIRLY
CLOSELY. IT LOOKS LIKE...AT LEAST THANKS TO THE CONTINUED N-NE
FLOW THAT THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH NEAR SFC MIXING TO PRECLUDE FOG
IN FAVOR OF DRIZZLE CAUSING VSBY REDUCTIONS. HOWEVER...A FEW
PATCHES OF DENSE FOG CAN/T BE RULED THANKS TO THE COOLER MOIST
FLOW MOVING INLAND. BY EARLY MORNING...A WEAK INVERTED TROF LOOKS
TO DEVELOP BETWEEN THE OFFSHORE SYSTEM MOVING S OF THE REGION AND
THE UPPER LVL CUTOFF. THIS MAY LEAD TO AN INCREASING THREAT FOR
-SHRA RATHER THAN DRIZZLE...PARTICULARLY FOR EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA...REFLECT THIS AS INCREASING POPS TO CHANCE
OVERNIGHT.

LOWS OVERNIGHT DIP BACK INTO INTO THE 50S...NOT AS COOL AS WOULD
BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE OVERNIGHT CLOUD COVER AND MOIST AIR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...
INVERTED TROF AND N-NE FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE MORNING
SO IT MAY TAKE SOME TIME FOR DRIZZLE...FOG AND LOWER CLOUDS TO
COMPLETELY COME TO AN END. IN FACT...-SHRA MAY LINGER INTO THE
AFTERNOON IN THE E. HOWEVER...THANKS TO SOME DIURNAL BL
MIXING...SUSPECT THAT THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE DRIZZLE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH ONLY THE WIDELY SCT -SHRA IN THE E. NOT
EXPECTING A WASHOUT BY ANY MEANS AS THERE IS LITTLE
BAROCLINICITY. OTHERWISE...HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL.
ALTHOUGH EVEN 2M TEMPS HAVE WARMED IN RECENT RUNS INTO THE LOW-MID
60S.

TOMORROW NIGHT...
FAIRLY SIMILAR SETUP TO TONIGHT ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE
FOR PRECIP AS UPPER LVL CUTOFF BEGINS TO SHIFT WITH IT/S BASE
MOVING INTO THE REGION BY MORNING. THEREFORE...GIVEN SIMILAR
SETUP AND COLUMN ACROSS THE AREA...SUSPECT THERE WILL BE SOME
DRIZZLE...FOG AND SHOWERS CONTINUING WITH MIN TEMPS ONCE AGAIN
FALLING BACK INTO THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* NORTHEAST WINDS AND CLOUDS THIS WEEK WILL KEEP TEMPS NEAR NORMAL
* CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE ON WED AND THU
* COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SATURDAY WILL BRING PRECIP TO THE REGION

OVERVIEW...

FALL IS HERE TO STAY FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS 12Z GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. OVERALL THE 12Z
GUIDANCE IS IN GENERALLY AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
WITH ISSUES DOWN AT THE SURFACE. THE TREND FOR THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE
IS THAT THE EC IS MORE AMPLIFIED WHERE THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
IN THE OVERALL PATTERN. THE CMC IS ALSO LESS AMPLIFIED THEN THE EC
WHERE THE UKMET IS THE IN BETWEEN MODEL. BECAUSE OF THE
DIFFERENCES IN GUIDANCE DID A MODEL BLEND AS WELL AS HPC FORECAST
FOR THE EXTENDED.

HAVE A HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT AVERAGE TEMPS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
REGION THIS WEEK. LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE PRECIP POTENTIAL FOR WED AND
THURSDAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIP WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY BUT
STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND WHO WILL SEE THE HIGHER
QPF.

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CUT OFF RIGHT OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
DURING THIS TIME FRAME...KEEPING A SURFACE TROUGH/NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW OVER THE REGION. THIS LOW WILL BRING A FEW SHORTWAVES ACROSS
THE REGION INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR SCT SHOWERS. EASTERN MA
HAS THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE ACCUMULATING PRECIP ESPECIALLY ON WED
INTO WED NIGHT. ANTICIPATE DRIZZLE AND FOG FOR THURSDAY ESP IN
EASTERN AREAS AS UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO MOVE OFFSHORE AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE INCHES EASTWARD INTO THE REGION. THUNDER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED ON WED AS THE MARINE LAYER WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE
STABLE AND GUIDANCE IS NOT SHOWING ANY INSTABILITY AT THIS TIME.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIMEFRAME.

FRIDAY...
QUICK MOVING RIDGE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR RETURN FLOW AND TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S. DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL AS WE WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS.

WEEKEND...
STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY AND IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL PUSH
A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION AND BRING SOME MUCH NEEDED
RAINFALL. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO THE DETAILS OF
THIS SYSTEM AS THE EC SEEMS TO BE OUT OF PHASE WITH THE MAJORITY
OF THE GUIDANCE. THEREFORE TRENDED MORE TOWARDS THE 12Z GFS AND
ENSEMBLES FOR THIS PORTION. NOTE THAT IT APPEARS THAT THE ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM DOES GET STRETCHED AND IS NOT AS
ROBUST AS IT IS ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK. THE OTHER POINT IS THAT
THE RIDGE ON FRIDAY...HOW STRONG WILL IT GET AND HOW MUCH DRY AIR
WILL LINGER AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION ON SATURDAY. RIGHT
NOW PLAN ON KEEPING CHC POPS TO THE SOUTH AND LIKELY POPS TO THE
NORTH...CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY. HOPEFULLY GUIDANCE WILL
LINE UP WITHIN THE COMING DAYS.

TRENDING WITH THE GFS/CMC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON SUNDAY
BUT STILL COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS LINGER EARLY SUN MORNING
ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. CAA BEHIND THE FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPS
BELOW AVERAGE WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF LOWER CATEGORIES THIS EVENING.

INTO TONIGHT...
VFR WILL GRADUALLY DIP TO MVFR WITH POCKETS OF IFR THROUGH THE
EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT. LOW CIGS WITH SOME DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL
START IN NE MA AND SE NH...THEN GRADUALLY MOVE TOWARD THE
SW...REACHING THE CT VALLEY AND S COASTS THE LATEST.
THEN...MVFR/IFR REMAINS IN CONTROL THE REST OF THE NIGHT UNDER
PERSISTENT NELY WINDS.

TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...
GENERALLY MORE OF THE SAME...ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY
MAY IMPROVE TO VFR MID MORNING-MID DAY. SOME SHOWERS /HEAVIER
THAN THE OVERNIGHT DRIZZLE...BUT NOT TOO HEAVY/ ARE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE DAY ACROSS E MA AND RI. ANOTHER ROUND OF
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AND POSSIBLE DRIZZLE EXPECTED TOMORROW NIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. MVFR/IFR CIGS OVERNIGHT.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE
ON EXACT DETAILS.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN
SHOWERS. PATCHY IFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE ACROSS EAST COASTAL SECTIONS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAY SEE LEFTOVER MVFR
CIG/VSBYS EARLY THU ALONG THE E COAST BUT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
FROM WEST TO EAST ON THURSDAY TO VFR. FRIDAY WILL BE VFR.

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR TO LOCAL
IFR IN A LINE OF SHOWERS MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGHOUT THE
DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE NIGHT.

TONIGHT...
WINDS SHIFT NE ACROSS ALL WATERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH
A FEW GUSTS NEAR 25 KT AND SEAS 4-5 FT MAINLY OVER THE WATERS
SURROUNDING CAPE ANN. ELSEWHERE...LESS OF A RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ALTHOUGH INCREASING RISK FOR DRIZZLE AND FOG
AND LOWER VSBYS.

TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...
NE FLOW CONTINUES. THIS PROLONGED NE FETCH WILL YIELD A GRADUALLY
BUILDING SWELL WHICH COULD APPROACH 5 FT BY LATE TOMORROW NIGHT.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY ONCE AGAIN BE NEEDED FOR THIS RISK.
OTHERWISE...NE WIND GUSTS GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 20 KT. ANOTHER
ROUND OF FOG AND DRIZZLE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS TOMORROW NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE WATERS
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. COMBINED WITH EASTERLY SWELL WILL HELP
BUILD SEAS UP TO 5-7 FEET. SCA WILL BE NEEDED.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE WATERS ON FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR
BOTH SEAS AND WINDS TO RELAX. LINGERING SEAS OF 5 OR 6 FEET WILL KEEP
THE SCA IN PLACE FOR THE OUTER WATERS.

APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY WILL ALLOW FOR RETURN FLOW AND
INCREASE IN GUSTS...CLOSE TO 30 KTS. SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD AHEAD OF
AND BEHIND THE FRONT...NEAR 7 FEET. SCA WILL BE NEEDED.

MAY EXPERIENCE A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 1.5 FEET DURING MIDWEEK BUT
THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE NOT ALL THAT HIGH.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DOODY/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...DOODY/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...DOODY/DUNTEN
MARINE...DOODY/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KOKX 292357
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
757 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL THEN AFFECT THE NORTHEAST DURING MID WEEK...
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH ON SATURDAY...FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
WITH A SHORTWAVE AND VORT MAX MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THIS
EVENING WAS TRIGGERING SOME LIGHT RAIN AND SPRINKLES ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY INTO SOUTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT. OTHER VORT
MAXES WILL BE ROTATING THROUGH THE SHORTWAVE LATER THIS EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT AND WILL PRODUCE ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN OR
SPRINKLES ACROSS MUCH OF CONNECTICUT AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK.

A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT NOW STRETCHING FROM SRN NH INTO CENTRAL
AND EASTERN MA CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD AND PUSHES THROUGH
OVERNIGHT...TURNING LOW LEVEL FLOW TO THE E-NE.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES ALOFT WITH THE SLOW MOVING
UPPER TROUGH ON TUE...AND AHEAD OF A MORE POTENT UPPER LOW APCHG
FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES LATE DAY TUE INTO TUE NIGHT...SHOULD
MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND CHANCES FOR ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS
THROUGH THE PD. E-NE FLOW OF MARITIME AIR WILL ALSO PERSIST...WITH
TEMPS CLOSER TO BUT STILL A COUPLE OF DEG ABOVE AVG.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHRTWV DROPPING INTO NRN MN WILL PASS THRU THE CWA AS A CLOSED H5
LOW ON WED. 12Z MODEL TIMING IS CONSISTENT AMONG THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF.
H85-H5 LAPSE RATES IN THE 5-6C/KM RANGE. DPVA SHOULD BE ABLE TO
OVERCOME THE WEAK CAP AROUND H7. AS A RESULT...WILL FCST SCT SHWRS
WED...ENDING FROM W TO E WED NGT AS THE UPR LOW SLOWLY EXITS. DEPTH
OF CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR AN ISOLD
LIGHTNING FLASH...ESPECIALLY OVER OR INVOF THE WATER WHERE THE WARM
AND MOIST BL WILL YIELD A SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE COLUMN.

SFC RIDGING EXTENDS SWD FROM ERN CANADA THU AND FRI. THIS WILL KEEP
A COOL NE-LY FLOW IN PLACE PRODUCING SEASONAL TEMPS. A MOIST MARINE
LAYER BLW THE DRY MID AND UPR LVLS WITH SUBSIDENCE...SO THE SETUP
WILL NOT BE CONDUCIVE TO ANY CONVECTION OR SIGNIFICANT PCPN. THE
MOST LIKELY SCENARIO WOULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES OR EVEN AREAS OF DZ.
HAVE INCLUDED CHC SPRINKLES WHERE THE GREATEST POOLING OF LLVL
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED ATTM.

MAIN PCPN EVEN IN THE LONG RANGE IS TAKING SHAPE FOR SAT. THE
PRIMARY DRIVER IS A STRONG UPR LOW OVER AK WHICH WILL DROP INTO THE
GREAT LAKES THRU THE PERIOD. STRONG RETURN FLOW FRI NGT PRODUCES
GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA FOR SAT. THE ASSOCIATED CDFNT
AND UPR DYNAMICS THEN PRODUCE A ROUND OF RAIN ON SAT. HAVE INCLUDED
LIKELY POPS IN THE FCST.

DRY ON SUN. A BLEND OF DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE DATA INDICATES
TEMPS WILL NOT GET OUT OF THE 60S. AS THE BROAD UPR LOW/TROF REACHES
THE AREA AROUND MON...THERE IS THE CHC THAT SOMETHING COULD DEVELOP
IN RESPONSE. ECMWF HAD A SFC LOW SPINNING UP...AND THE GFS HAS COLD
POOL TYPE SHWRS. HAVE INCLUDED SCHC POPS AND CLOUDY SKIES AS A
RESULT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT THEN PUSHES SOUTHWEST THROUGH DAYBREAK
TUESDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
DURING THE DAY.

VFR. A FEW SPRINKLES OR ISOLATED -SHRA POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN TERMINALS OVERNIGHT.

MVFR STRATUS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EXPECTED TO DRIFT SW INTO
KGON AND LIKELY INTO KISP/KBDR/KHPN OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. CONFIDENCE LOW ON WHETHER MVFR STRATUS DEVELOPS INTO NYC
METRO TERMINALS TOWARDS DAYBREAK. STRATUS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
IMPROVE TO VFR THROUGH THE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT
POTENTIAL FOR IT TO LINGER ACROSS CT TERMINALS.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS EVENING...BECOMING E/NE IN THE WAKE
OF COLD FRONT. E/NE WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 10Z AND 14Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 10Z AND 14Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 10Z AND 14Z.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 10Z AND 14Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 10Z AND 14Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS BETWEEN
10Z AND 14Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUE NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER CIGS POSSIBLE. CHC -SHRA E-NE WINDS
AROUND 10 KT.
.WED...CHC MVFR CIGS/VSBYS/-SHRA. E-NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.THU...CHC MVFR MAINLY AM. NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.FRI...VFR. SE-S WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.SAT...RAIN LIKELY. CHC MVFR OR LOWER. SW WINDS AM BECMG WNW PM.
GUSTS 20-25KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH TUE. PERSISTENT/INCREASING E-NE FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN SCA
CONDS TUE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY LATE. TOO EARLY TO ISSUE SCA FOR THIS
TIME FRAME.

THESE CONDS COULD CONTINUE INTO THU...ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN AND
THE ERN SOUND/BAYS. WINDS AND WAVES WILL DECREASE ON FRI...ONLY TO
RAPIDLY BUILD AGAIN ON SAT WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A
CDFNT. WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS ON SUNDAY ATTM.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN EXPECTED THROUGH TUE NIGHT. A FEW TENTHS OF
AN INCH OF RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE WED-WED NGT. UP TO AN INCH OF
RAIN IS POSSIBLE ON SAT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/MET
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...JMC/GOODMAN/MET
HYDROLOGY...JMC/GOODMAN










000
FXUS61 KOKX 292357
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
757 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL THEN AFFECT THE NORTHEAST DURING MID WEEK...
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH ON SATURDAY...FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
WITH A SHORTWAVE AND VORT MAX MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THIS
EVENING WAS TRIGGERING SOME LIGHT RAIN AND SPRINKLES ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY INTO SOUTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT. OTHER VORT
MAXES WILL BE ROTATING THROUGH THE SHORTWAVE LATER THIS EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT AND WILL PRODUCE ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN OR
SPRINKLES ACROSS MUCH OF CONNECTICUT AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK.

A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT NOW STRETCHING FROM SRN NH INTO CENTRAL
AND EASTERN MA CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD AND PUSHES THROUGH
OVERNIGHT...TURNING LOW LEVEL FLOW TO THE E-NE.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES ALOFT WITH THE SLOW MOVING
UPPER TROUGH ON TUE...AND AHEAD OF A MORE POTENT UPPER LOW APCHG
FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES LATE DAY TUE INTO TUE NIGHT...SHOULD
MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND CHANCES FOR ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS
THROUGH THE PD. E-NE FLOW OF MARITIME AIR WILL ALSO PERSIST...WITH
TEMPS CLOSER TO BUT STILL A COUPLE OF DEG ABOVE AVG.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHRTWV DROPPING INTO NRN MN WILL PASS THRU THE CWA AS A CLOSED H5
LOW ON WED. 12Z MODEL TIMING IS CONSISTENT AMONG THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF.
H85-H5 LAPSE RATES IN THE 5-6C/KM RANGE. DPVA SHOULD BE ABLE TO
OVERCOME THE WEAK CAP AROUND H7. AS A RESULT...WILL FCST SCT SHWRS
WED...ENDING FROM W TO E WED NGT AS THE UPR LOW SLOWLY EXITS. DEPTH
OF CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR AN ISOLD
LIGHTNING FLASH...ESPECIALLY OVER OR INVOF THE WATER WHERE THE WARM
AND MOIST BL WILL YIELD A SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE COLUMN.

SFC RIDGING EXTENDS SWD FROM ERN CANADA THU AND FRI. THIS WILL KEEP
A COOL NE-LY FLOW IN PLACE PRODUCING SEASONAL TEMPS. A MOIST MARINE
LAYER BLW THE DRY MID AND UPR LVLS WITH SUBSIDENCE...SO THE SETUP
WILL NOT BE CONDUCIVE TO ANY CONVECTION OR SIGNIFICANT PCPN. THE
MOST LIKELY SCENARIO WOULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES OR EVEN AREAS OF DZ.
HAVE INCLUDED CHC SPRINKLES WHERE THE GREATEST POOLING OF LLVL
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED ATTM.

MAIN PCPN EVEN IN THE LONG RANGE IS TAKING SHAPE FOR SAT. THE
PRIMARY DRIVER IS A STRONG UPR LOW OVER AK WHICH WILL DROP INTO THE
GREAT LAKES THRU THE PERIOD. STRONG RETURN FLOW FRI NGT PRODUCES
GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA FOR SAT. THE ASSOCIATED CDFNT
AND UPR DYNAMICS THEN PRODUCE A ROUND OF RAIN ON SAT. HAVE INCLUDED
LIKELY POPS IN THE FCST.

DRY ON SUN. A BLEND OF DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE DATA INDICATES
TEMPS WILL NOT GET OUT OF THE 60S. AS THE BROAD UPR LOW/TROF REACHES
THE AREA AROUND MON...THERE IS THE CHC THAT SOMETHING COULD DEVELOP
IN RESPONSE. ECMWF HAD A SFC LOW SPINNING UP...AND THE GFS HAS COLD
POOL TYPE SHWRS. HAVE INCLUDED SCHC POPS AND CLOUDY SKIES AS A
RESULT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT THEN PUSHES SOUTHWEST THROUGH DAYBREAK
TUESDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
DURING THE DAY.

VFR. A FEW SPRINKLES OR ISOLATED -SHRA POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN TERMINALS OVERNIGHT.

MVFR STRATUS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EXPECTED TO DRIFT SW INTO
KGON AND LIKELY INTO KISP/KBDR/KHPN OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. CONFIDENCE LOW ON WHETHER MVFR STRATUS DEVELOPS INTO NYC
METRO TERMINALS TOWARDS DAYBREAK. STRATUS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
IMPROVE TO VFR THROUGH THE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT
POTENTIAL FOR IT TO LINGER ACROSS CT TERMINALS.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS EVENING...BECOMING E/NE IN THE WAKE
OF COLD FRONT. E/NE WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 10Z AND 14Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 10Z AND 14Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 10Z AND 14Z.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 10Z AND 14Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 10Z AND 14Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS BETWEEN
10Z AND 14Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUE NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER CIGS POSSIBLE. CHC -SHRA E-NE WINDS
AROUND 10 KT.
.WED...CHC MVFR CIGS/VSBYS/-SHRA. E-NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.THU...CHC MVFR MAINLY AM. NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.FRI...VFR. SE-S WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.SAT...RAIN LIKELY. CHC MVFR OR LOWER. SW WINDS AM BECMG WNW PM.
GUSTS 20-25KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH TUE. PERSISTENT/INCREASING E-NE FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN SCA
CONDS TUE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY LATE. TOO EARLY TO ISSUE SCA FOR THIS
TIME FRAME.

THESE CONDS COULD CONTINUE INTO THU...ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN AND
THE ERN SOUND/BAYS. WINDS AND WAVES WILL DECREASE ON FRI...ONLY TO
RAPIDLY BUILD AGAIN ON SAT WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A
CDFNT. WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS ON SUNDAY ATTM.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN EXPECTED THROUGH TUE NIGHT. A FEW TENTHS OF
AN INCH OF RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE WED-WED NGT. UP TO AN INCH OF
RAIN IS POSSIBLE ON SAT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/MET
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...JMC/GOODMAN/MET
HYDROLOGY...JMC/GOODMAN









000
FXUS61 KALY 292355
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
755 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT AND ON
TUESDAY...BRINGING SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR. THE COMBINATION OF THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM THE WEST
WILL ALSO RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES REMAINING A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MUCH
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 755 PM EDT...A SIDE-DOOR COLD FRONT IS GRADUALLY PROGRESSING
WESTWARD ACROSS EASTERN AND CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND AT THIS TIME
EVIDENCED BY HIGHER PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
LINE AND SURFACE WINDS SHIFTING TO A NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION
BEHIND THE FRONT. IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE FRONT TO WORK
INTO OUR AREA...WITH WESTERN NEW ENGLAND EXPERIENCING THE EFFECTS
OF THE COLD FRONT FIRST NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN
ADVANCING WESTWARD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

THE STREAM OF MID/HI LEVEL CLOUDS SURGING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE
NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO AND FROM OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT. SIMILAR TO TODAY...THIS CLOUDINESS WILL TEND TO
THIN AND RECEDE AT TIMES NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY...BUT MOST OF
THE REGION WILL AVERAGE MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR TONIGHT AS LOWER STRATUS
CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT IN WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT PASSAGE. ALTHOUGH RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME PRECIP ALOFT
/VIRGA/...THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE TOO DRY TO ALLOW
ANY OF IT TO REACH THE GROUND. DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER...TEMPS
TONIGHT WILL BE A LITTLE MILDER...WITH LOWS FORECAST TO BE IN THE
UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE BACKDOOR BOUNDARY WILL DROP SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION BY
TUESDAY...AND INTERACT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. THIS WILL RESULT
IN SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION...BUT NO WIDESPREAD PCPN IS
EXPECTED DUE TO THE WEAKNESS OF BOTH SYSTEMS. HAVE ONLY FORECAST 20
TO 40 PERCENT POPS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ALSO EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD. THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. HAVE ONLY INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST AREAS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE
DECREASING TO PARTLY CLOUDY.

TEMPS WILL CONTINUE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WILL BE BETWEEN 65 AND 75. LOWS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHTS WILL BE BETWEEN 45 AND 55.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT ON THURSDAY WITH OUR REGION UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...WITH A SURFACE HIGH LOCATED OVER
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES PROVIDING A WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW. SO DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING ABOVE NORMAL.
ON FRIDAY A POTENT UPPER TROUGH MIGRATES EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES...WITH A DEVELOPING SURFACE WAVE IN SOUTHEAST CANADA. WITH THE
SURFACE RIDGE HOLDING ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ESPECIALLY LATE IN
THE DAY. 12Z GFS/ECMWF IN AGREEMENT WITH HOLDING OFF MUCH OF THE
RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT...SO WILL
ONLY MENTION LOW CHANCE POPS WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY THROUGH
SUNSET.

THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE FOR A PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD MODERATE
RAINFALL FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSS OUR REGION. GOOD MOISTURE
INFLUX WITH 40+ KT LOW LEVEL SOUTHERN FLOW ALONG WITH GUIDANCE
INDICATING A POSSIBLE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD
FRONT AS IT PASSES THROUGH...WHICH COULD ENHANCE RAINFALL. AS OF NOW
IT LOOKS LIKE A AROUND 0.50-1.00 INCHES OF RAIN MAY OCCUR BUT DUE TO
THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM GREATER AMOUNTS ARE NOT
LIKELY. RAINFALL SHOULD TAPER OFF ON SATURDAY...WITH SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES NOTED IN MODELS. AT LEAST THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY MAY
END UP DRYING...ESPECIALLY FROM ALBANY WESTWARD.

A MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURE REGIME WILL THEN SET UP BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD ON
MONDAY...AS A PATTERN SHIFT IS FORECAST TO OCCUR WITH A LONG WAVE
TROUGH SETTING UP ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. FROM SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY...THERE WILL BE PERIODIC CHANCES FOR A FEW SHOWERS AS
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH. THE BEST CHANCES WILL
BE OVER THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY WHERE LAKE
ENHANCED SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DUE TO LAKE-AIR TEMP
DIFFERENTIALS INCREASING WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT MOVING IN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE TAF SITES FROM THE EAST THIS
EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL THEN MOVE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE TAF SITES
BY TUESDAY MORNING...ALLOWING FOR AN ONSHORE FLOW OF COOL AND
MOIST AIR TO GRADUALLY ADVECT IN FROM EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.

HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS CURRENTLY OVER THE TERMINALS...WITH
SIGNIFICANT BREAKS IN THIS CLOUD DECK AT KGFL WHERE SOME FOG HAS
ALREADY DEVELOPED EARLY THIS EVENING. WILL MENTION PREVAILING MVFR
WITH OCCASIONAL IFR AT KGFL FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING BEFORE
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND PROVIDES SOME MIXING WHICH SHOULD
INHIBIT THE FOG. AS THE FRONT PUSHES WESTWARD ACROSS THE
TERMINALS...CIGS WILL GRADUALLY DROP TO MVFR RANGE AND POSSIBLY
EVEN IFR LEVELS LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER ELEVATION
SITE KPSF.

CIGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN MVFR RANGE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY
MORNING...AND POSSIBLY WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW REMAINS ONSHORE FROM A E-SE DIRECTION. BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR
CIGS PERSISTING WILL BE AT KPSF.

WINDS WILL BE INITIALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...SHIFTING TO THE
EAST AROUND 5 KT OVERNIGHT...THEN EAST-SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH VALUES WILL RECOVER TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD
DEW FORMATION AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.

RH VALUES WILL ONLY DROP TO 60 TO 70 PERCENT ON TUESDAY WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A FEW RAIN SHOWERS AROUND...MAINLY FOR
WESTERN/SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION. S-SE WINDS WILL BE AROUND 5
TO 10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC RELATED ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY FOR MOST OF THIS WEEK. THE ONLY
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL COME AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS INTO THE
AREA AND STALLS ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION. WITH THIS
BOUNDARY AROUND...AND SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANY RAIN SHOWERS THAT OCCUR WILL HAVE LITTLE OR
NO EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. MOST RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE
RUNNING BELOW NORMAL...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/JPV
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM







000
FXUS61 KBOX 292301
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
701 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE REGION LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT
WILL BRING COOL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK AS
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE. ONE OR TWO WEAK WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE REGION. AN
APPROACHING FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO AFFECT
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

ADJUSTED THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS. BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT HAS ALREADY MOVED THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THE REGION.
AS THIS FRONT PASSES...TEMPERATURES DROP A FEW DEGREES. HOWEVER
THE MOISTURE INCREASES AND WITH A LOW TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREAD...FOG
AND LOW CLOUDS HAVE PUSHED ACROSS THE EAST COAST. IN FACT BVY IS
DOWN TO LESS THAN 2 MILES AND BOSTON DOWN TO 5SM. PER WEBCAMS
ANTICIPATE THIS FOG TO CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS THE SOUTH SHORE
AND ACROSS CAPE AND ISLANDS. STILL SOME QUESTIONS ON HOW FAR
WESTERWARD THE FOG WILL GET. HOWEVER LOW CLOUDS WILL PUSH WELL
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGHOUT THE EVENING. ANTICIPATE
DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP AS WELL OVERNIGHT.

OTHERWISE BULK OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CLOUD COVER HAS ONCE AGAIN REGAINED CONTROL ACROSS THE AREA AFTER
A BRIEF BREAK WITH MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS HAS OCCURRED AS THE TWO MOISTURE STREAMS...ONE TO THE N
ASSOCIATED WITH A DIGGING UPPER LVL CUTOFF AND BACKDOOR- ESQUE
COLD FRONT AND A DEVELOPING MID ATLANTIC COASTAL LOW PRES. USING A
MIX OF CURRENT SFC OBS AND MSAS ISALLOBARIC FLOW...THE COLD FRONT
LOOKS TO HAVE BEGUN SLIDING INTO THE REGION...AND IS CURRENTLY
DRAPED NEAR THE CT VALLEY INTO SE MA. NE FLOW HAS ALREADY
DEVELOPED AND BEGUN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT
AS IT SLIDES THROUGH.

AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE SW MOVEMENT AND OUT OF THE BOX CWA
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...COOLER MARINE FLOW OFF THE GULF OF
MAINE WHERE SST/S ARE AROUND 60F WILL BE UNDERCUTTING WARMER
MOIST AIR JUST ABOVE THE SFC. THE REMNANTS OF A MID LVL RIDGE IS
ALSO PRESENT AS A MID LOW-MID LVL DRY LAYER. THEREFORE...LOOKS
LIKE A GOOD SETUP FOR LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE TO FORM ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FROM NE TO SW. LIKED PREVIOUS
FORECASTER/S THINKING ON THIS SO FOLLOWED THEIR LEAD FAIRLY
CLOSELY. IT LOOKS LIKE...AT LEAST THANKS TO THE CONTINUED N-NE
FLOW THAT THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH NEAR SFC MIXING TO PRECLUDE FOG
IN FAVOR OF DRIZZLE CAUSING VSBY REDUCTIONS. HOWEVER...A FEW
PATCHES OF DENSE FOG CAN/T BE RULED THANKS TO THE COOLER MOIST
FLOW MOVING INLAND. BY EARLY MORNING...A WEAK INVERTED TROF LOOKS
TO DEVELOP BETWEEN THE OFFSHORE SYSTEM MOVING S OF THE REGION AND
THE UPPER LVL CUTOFF. THIS MAY LEAD TO AN INCREASING THREAT FOR
-SHRA RATHER THAN DRIZZLE...PARTICULARLY FOR EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA...REFLECT THIS AS INCREASING POPS TO CHANCE
OVERNIGHT.

LOWS OVERNIGHT DIP BACK INTO INTO THE 50S...NOT AS COOL AS WOULD
BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE OVERNIGHT CLOUD COVER AND MOIST AIR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...
INVERTED TROF AND N-NE FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE MORNING
SO IT MAY TAKE SOME TIME FOR DRIZZLE...FOG AND LOWER CLOUDS TO
COMPLETELY COME TO AN END. IN FACT...-SHRA MAY LINGER INTO THE
AFTERNOON IN THE E. HOWEVER...THANKS TO SOME DIURNAL BL
MIXING...SUSPECT THAT THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE DRIZZLE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH ONLY THE WIDELY SCT -SHRA IN THE E. NOT
EXPECTING A WASHOUT BY ANY MEANS AS THERE IS LITTLE
BAROCLINICITY. OTHERWISE...HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL.
ALTHOUGH EVEN 2M TEMPS HAVE WARMED IN RECENT RUNS INTO THE LOW-MID
60S.

TOMORROW NIGHT...
FAIRLY SIMILAR SETUP TO TONIGHT ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE
FOR PRECIP AS UPPER LVL CUTOFF BEGINS TO SHIFT WITH IT/S BASE
MOVING INTO THE REGION BY MORNING. THEREFORE...GIVEN SIMILAR
SETUP AND COLUMN ACROSS THE AREA...SUSPECT THERE WILL BE SOME
DRIZZLE...FOG AND SHOWERS CONTINUING WITH MIN TEMPS ONCE AGAIN
FALLING BACK INTO THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* NORTHEAST WINDS AND CLOUDS THIS WEEK WILL KEEP TEMPS NEAR NORMAL
* CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE ON WED AND THU
* COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SATURDAY WILL BRING PRECIP TO THE REGION

OVERVIEW...

FALL IS HERE TO STAY FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS 12Z GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. OVERALL THE 12Z
GUIDANCE IS IN GENERALLY AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
WITH ISSUES DOWN AT THE SURFACE. THE TREND FOR THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE
IS THAT THE EC IS MORE AMPLIFIED WHERE THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
IN THE OVERALL PATTERN. THE CMC IS ALSO LESS AMPLIFIED THEN THE EC
WHERE THE UKMET IS THE IN BETWEEN MODEL. BECAUSE OF THE
DIFFERENCES IN GUIDANCE DID A MODEL BLEND AS WELL AS HPC FORECAST
FOR THE EXTENDED.

HAVE A HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT AVERAGE TEMPS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
REGION THIS WEEK. LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE PRECIP POTENTIAL FOR WED AND
THURSDAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIP WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY BUT
STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND WHO WILL SEE THE HIGHER
QPF.

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CUT OFF RIGHT OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
DURING THIS TIME FRAME...KEEPING A SURFACE TROUGH/NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW OVER THE REGION. THIS LOW WILL BRING A FEW SHORTWAVES ACROSS
THE REGION INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR SCT SHOWERS. EASTERN MA
HAS THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE ACCUMULATING PRECIP ESPECIALLY ON WED
INTO WED NIGHT. ANTICIPATE DRIZZLE AND FOG FOR THURSDAY ESP IN
EASTERN AREAS AS UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO MOVE OFFSHORE AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE INCHES EASTWARD INTO THE REGION. THUNDER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED ON WED AS THE MARINE LAYER WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE
STABLE AND GUIDANCE IS NOT SHOWING ANY INSTABILITY AT THIS TIME.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIMEFRAME.

FRIDAY...
QUICK MOVING RIDGE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR RETURN FLOW AND TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S. DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL AS WE WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS.

WEEKEND...
STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY AND IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL PUSH
A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION AND BRING SOME MUCH NEEDED
RAINFALL. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO THE DETAILS OF
THIS SYSTEM AS THE EC SEEMS TO BE OUT OF PHASE WITH THE MAJORITY
OF THE GUIDANCE. THEREFORE TRENDED MORE TOWARDS THE 12Z GFS AND
ENSEMBLES FOR THIS PORTION. NOTE THAT IT APPEARS THAT THE ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM DOES GET STRETCHED AND IS NOT AS
ROBUST AS IT IS ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK. THE OTHER POINT IS THAT
THE RIDGE ON FRIDAY...HOW STRONG WILL IT GET AND HOW MUCH DRY AIR
WILL LINGER AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION ON SATURDAY. RIGHT
NOW PLAN ON KEEPING CHC POPS TO THE SOUTH AND LIKELY POPS TO THE
NORTH...CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY. HOPEFULLY GUIDANCE WILL
LINE UP WITHIN THE COMING DAYS.

TRENDING WITH THE GFS/CMC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON SUNDAY
BUT STILL COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS LINGER EARLY SUN MORNING
ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. CAA BEHIND THE FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPS
BELOW AVERAGE WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF LOWER CATEGORIES THIS EVENING.

INTO TONIGHT...
VFR WILL GRADUALLY DIP TO MVFR WITH POCKETS OF IFR THROUGH THE
EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT. LOW CIGS WITH SOME DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL
START IN NE MA AND SE NH...THEN GRADUALLY MOVE TOWARD THE
SW...REACHING THE CT VALLEY AND S COASTS THE LATEST.
THEN...MVFR/IFR REMAINS IN CONTROL THE REST OF THE NIGHT UNDER
PERSISTENT NELY WINDS.

TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...
GENERALLY MORE OF THE SAME...ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY
MAY IMPROVE TO VFR MID MORNING-MID DAY. SOME SHOWERS /HEAVIER
THAN THE OVERNIGHT DRIZZLE...BUT NOT TOO HEAVY/ ARE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE DAY ACROSS E MA AND RI. ANOTHER ROUND OF
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AND POSSIBLE DRIZZLE EXPECTED TOMORROW NIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. MVFR/IFR CIGS OVERNIGHT.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE
ON EXACT DETAILS.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN
SHOWERS. PATCHY IFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE ACROSS EAST COASTAL SECTIONS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAY SEE LEFTOVER MVFR
CIG/VSBYS EARLY THU ALONG THE E COAST BUT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
FROM WEST TO EAST ON THURSDAY TO VFR. FRIDAY WILL BE VFR.

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR TO LOCAL
IFR IN A LINE OF SHOWERS MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGHOUT THE
DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE NIGHT.

TONIGHT...
WINDS SHIFT NE ACROSS ALL WATERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH
A FEW GUSTS NEAR 25 KT AND SEAS 4-5 FT MAINLY OVER THE WATERS
SURROUNDING CAPE ANN. ELSEWHERE...LESS OF A RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ALTHOUGH INCREASING RISK FOR DRIZZLE AND FOG
AND LOWER VSBYS.

TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...
NE FLOW CONTINUES. THIS PROLONGED NE FETCH WILL YIELD A GRADUALLY
BUILDING SWELL WHICH COULD APPROACH 5 FT BY LATE TOMORROW NIGHT.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY ONCE AGAIN BE NEEDED FOR THIS RISK.
OTHERWISE...NE WIND GUSTS GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 20 KT. ANOTHER
ROUND OF FOG AND DRIZZLE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS TOMORROW NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE WATERS
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. COMBINED WITH EASTERLY SWELL WILL HELP
BUILD SEAS UP TO 5-7 FEET. SCA WILL BE NEEDED.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE WATERS ON FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR
BOTH SEAS AND WINDS TO RELAX. LINGERING SEAS OF 5 OR 6 FEET WILL KEEP
THE SCA IN PLACE FOR THE OUTER WATERS.

APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY WILL ALLOW FOR RETURN FLOW AND
INCREASE IN GUSTS...CLOSE TO 30 KTS. SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD AHEAD OF
AND BEHIND THE FRONT...NEAR 7 FEET. SCA WILL BE NEEDED.

MAY EXPERIENCE A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 1.5 FEET DURING MIDWEEK BUT
THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE NOT ALL THAT HIGH.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DOODY/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...DOODY/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...DOODY/DUNTEN
MARINE...DOODY/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 292301
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
701 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE REGION LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT
WILL BRING COOL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK AS
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE. ONE OR TWO WEAK WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE REGION. AN
APPROACHING FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO AFFECT
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

ADJUSTED THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS. BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT HAS ALREADY MOVED THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THE REGION.
AS THIS FRONT PASSES...TEMPERATURES DROP A FEW DEGREES. HOWEVER
THE MOISTURE INCREASES AND WITH A LOW TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREAD...FOG
AND LOW CLOUDS HAVE PUSHED ACROSS THE EAST COAST. IN FACT BVY IS
DOWN TO LESS THAN 2 MILES AND BOSTON DOWN TO 5SM. PER WEBCAMS
ANTICIPATE THIS FOG TO CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS THE SOUTH SHORE
AND ACROSS CAPE AND ISLANDS. STILL SOME QUESTIONS ON HOW FAR
WESTERWARD THE FOG WILL GET. HOWEVER LOW CLOUDS WILL PUSH WELL
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGHOUT THE EVENING. ANTICIPATE
DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP AS WELL OVERNIGHT.

OTHERWISE BULK OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CLOUD COVER HAS ONCE AGAIN REGAINED CONTROL ACROSS THE AREA AFTER
A BRIEF BREAK WITH MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS HAS OCCURRED AS THE TWO MOISTURE STREAMS...ONE TO THE N
ASSOCIATED WITH A DIGGING UPPER LVL CUTOFF AND BACKDOOR- ESQUE
COLD FRONT AND A DEVELOPING MID ATLANTIC COASTAL LOW PRES. USING A
MIX OF CURRENT SFC OBS AND MSAS ISALLOBARIC FLOW...THE COLD FRONT
LOOKS TO HAVE BEGUN SLIDING INTO THE REGION...AND IS CURRENTLY
DRAPED NEAR THE CT VALLEY INTO SE MA. NE FLOW HAS ALREADY
DEVELOPED AND BEGUN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT
AS IT SLIDES THROUGH.

AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE SW MOVEMENT AND OUT OF THE BOX CWA
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...COOLER MARINE FLOW OFF THE GULF OF
MAINE WHERE SST/S ARE AROUND 60F WILL BE UNDERCUTTING WARMER
MOIST AIR JUST ABOVE THE SFC. THE REMNANTS OF A MID LVL RIDGE IS
ALSO PRESENT AS A MID LOW-MID LVL DRY LAYER. THEREFORE...LOOKS
LIKE A GOOD SETUP FOR LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE TO FORM ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FROM NE TO SW. LIKED PREVIOUS
FORECASTER/S THINKING ON THIS SO FOLLOWED THEIR LEAD FAIRLY
CLOSELY. IT LOOKS LIKE...AT LEAST THANKS TO THE CONTINUED N-NE
FLOW THAT THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH NEAR SFC MIXING TO PRECLUDE FOG
IN FAVOR OF DRIZZLE CAUSING VSBY REDUCTIONS. HOWEVER...A FEW
PATCHES OF DENSE FOG CAN/T BE RULED THANKS TO THE COOLER MOIST
FLOW MOVING INLAND. BY EARLY MORNING...A WEAK INVERTED TROF LOOKS
TO DEVELOP BETWEEN THE OFFSHORE SYSTEM MOVING S OF THE REGION AND
THE UPPER LVL CUTOFF. THIS MAY LEAD TO AN INCREASING THREAT FOR
-SHRA RATHER THAN DRIZZLE...PARTICULARLY FOR EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA...REFLECT THIS AS INCREASING POPS TO CHANCE
OVERNIGHT.

LOWS OVERNIGHT DIP BACK INTO INTO THE 50S...NOT AS COOL AS WOULD
BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE OVERNIGHT CLOUD COVER AND MOIST AIR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...
INVERTED TROF AND N-NE FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE MORNING
SO IT MAY TAKE SOME TIME FOR DRIZZLE...FOG AND LOWER CLOUDS TO
COMPLETELY COME TO AN END. IN FACT...-SHRA MAY LINGER INTO THE
AFTERNOON IN THE E. HOWEVER...THANKS TO SOME DIURNAL BL
MIXING...SUSPECT THAT THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE DRIZZLE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH ONLY THE WIDELY SCT -SHRA IN THE E. NOT
EXPECTING A WASHOUT BY ANY MEANS AS THERE IS LITTLE
BAROCLINICITY. OTHERWISE...HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL.
ALTHOUGH EVEN 2M TEMPS HAVE WARMED IN RECENT RUNS INTO THE LOW-MID
60S.

TOMORROW NIGHT...
FAIRLY SIMILAR SETUP TO TONIGHT ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE
FOR PRECIP AS UPPER LVL CUTOFF BEGINS TO SHIFT WITH IT/S BASE
MOVING INTO THE REGION BY MORNING. THEREFORE...GIVEN SIMILAR
SETUP AND COLUMN ACROSS THE AREA...SUSPECT THERE WILL BE SOME
DRIZZLE...FOG AND SHOWERS CONTINUING WITH MIN TEMPS ONCE AGAIN
FALLING BACK INTO THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* NORTHEAST WINDS AND CLOUDS THIS WEEK WILL KEEP TEMPS NEAR NORMAL
* CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE ON WED AND THU
* COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SATURDAY WILL BRING PRECIP TO THE REGION

OVERVIEW...

FALL IS HERE TO STAY FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS 12Z GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. OVERALL THE 12Z
GUIDANCE IS IN GENERALLY AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
WITH ISSUES DOWN AT THE SURFACE. THE TREND FOR THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE
IS THAT THE EC IS MORE AMPLIFIED WHERE THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
IN THE OVERALL PATTERN. THE CMC IS ALSO LESS AMPLIFIED THEN THE EC
WHERE THE UKMET IS THE IN BETWEEN MODEL. BECAUSE OF THE
DIFFERENCES IN GUIDANCE DID A MODEL BLEND AS WELL AS HPC FORECAST
FOR THE EXTENDED.

HAVE A HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT AVERAGE TEMPS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
REGION THIS WEEK. LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE PRECIP POTENTIAL FOR WED AND
THURSDAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIP WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY BUT
STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND WHO WILL SEE THE HIGHER
QPF.

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CUT OFF RIGHT OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
DURING THIS TIME FRAME...KEEPING A SURFACE TROUGH/NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW OVER THE REGION. THIS LOW WILL BRING A FEW SHORTWAVES ACROSS
THE REGION INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR SCT SHOWERS. EASTERN MA
HAS THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE ACCUMULATING PRECIP ESPECIALLY ON WED
INTO WED NIGHT. ANTICIPATE DRIZZLE AND FOG FOR THURSDAY ESP IN
EASTERN AREAS AS UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO MOVE OFFSHORE AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE INCHES EASTWARD INTO THE REGION. THUNDER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED ON WED AS THE MARINE LAYER WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE
STABLE AND GUIDANCE IS NOT SHOWING ANY INSTABILITY AT THIS TIME.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIMEFRAME.

FRIDAY...
QUICK MOVING RIDGE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR RETURN FLOW AND TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S. DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL AS WE WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS.

WEEKEND...
STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY AND IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL PUSH
A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION AND BRING SOME MUCH NEEDED
RAINFALL. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO THE DETAILS OF
THIS SYSTEM AS THE EC SEEMS TO BE OUT OF PHASE WITH THE MAJORITY
OF THE GUIDANCE. THEREFORE TRENDED MORE TOWARDS THE 12Z GFS AND
ENSEMBLES FOR THIS PORTION. NOTE THAT IT APPEARS THAT THE ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM DOES GET STRETCHED AND IS NOT AS
ROBUST AS IT IS ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK. THE OTHER POINT IS THAT
THE RIDGE ON FRIDAY...HOW STRONG WILL IT GET AND HOW MUCH DRY AIR
WILL LINGER AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION ON SATURDAY. RIGHT
NOW PLAN ON KEEPING CHC POPS TO THE SOUTH AND LIKELY POPS TO THE
NORTH...CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY. HOPEFULLY GUIDANCE WILL
LINE UP WITHIN THE COMING DAYS.

TRENDING WITH THE GFS/CMC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON SUNDAY
BUT STILL COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS LINGER EARLY SUN MORNING
ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. CAA BEHIND THE FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPS
BELOW AVERAGE WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF LOWER CATEGORIES THIS EVENING.

INTO TONIGHT...
VFR WILL GRADUALLY DIP TO MVFR WITH POCKETS OF IFR THROUGH THE
EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT. LOW CIGS WITH SOME DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL
START IN NE MA AND SE NH...THEN GRADUALLY MOVE TOWARD THE
SW...REACHING THE CT VALLEY AND S COASTS THE LATEST.
THEN...MVFR/IFR REMAINS IN CONTROL THE REST OF THE NIGHT UNDER
PERSISTENT NELY WINDS.

TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...
GENERALLY MORE OF THE SAME...ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY
MAY IMPROVE TO VFR MID MORNING-MID DAY. SOME SHOWERS /HEAVIER
THAN THE OVERNIGHT DRIZZLE...BUT NOT TOO HEAVY/ ARE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE DAY ACROSS E MA AND RI. ANOTHER ROUND OF
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AND POSSIBLE DRIZZLE EXPECTED TOMORROW NIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. MVFR/IFR CIGS OVERNIGHT.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE
ON EXACT DETAILS.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN
SHOWERS. PATCHY IFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE ACROSS EAST COASTAL SECTIONS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAY SEE LEFTOVER MVFR
CIG/VSBYS EARLY THU ALONG THE E COAST BUT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
FROM WEST TO EAST ON THURSDAY TO VFR. FRIDAY WILL BE VFR.

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR TO LOCAL
IFR IN A LINE OF SHOWERS MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGHOUT THE
DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE NIGHT.

TONIGHT...
WINDS SHIFT NE ACROSS ALL WATERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH
A FEW GUSTS NEAR 25 KT AND SEAS 4-5 FT MAINLY OVER THE WATERS
SURROUNDING CAPE ANN. ELSEWHERE...LESS OF A RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ALTHOUGH INCREASING RISK FOR DRIZZLE AND FOG
AND LOWER VSBYS.

TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...
NE FLOW CONTINUES. THIS PROLONGED NE FETCH WILL YIELD A GRADUALLY
BUILDING SWELL WHICH COULD APPROACH 5 FT BY LATE TOMORROW NIGHT.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY ONCE AGAIN BE NEEDED FOR THIS RISK.
OTHERWISE...NE WIND GUSTS GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 20 KT. ANOTHER
ROUND OF FOG AND DRIZZLE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS TOMORROW NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE WATERS
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. COMBINED WITH EASTERLY SWELL WILL HELP
BUILD SEAS UP TO 5-7 FEET. SCA WILL BE NEEDED.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE WATERS ON FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR
BOTH SEAS AND WINDS TO RELAX. LINGERING SEAS OF 5 OR 6 FEET WILL KEEP
THE SCA IN PLACE FOR THE OUTER WATERS.

APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY WILL ALLOW FOR RETURN FLOW AND
INCREASE IN GUSTS...CLOSE TO 30 KTS. SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD AHEAD OF
AND BEHIND THE FRONT...NEAR 7 FEET. SCA WILL BE NEEDED.

MAY EXPERIENCE A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 1.5 FEET DURING MIDWEEK BUT
THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE NOT ALL THAT HIGH.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DOODY/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...DOODY/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...DOODY/DUNTEN
MARINE...DOODY/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KOKX 292156
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
556 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL THEN AFFECT THE NORTHEAST DURING MID WEEK...
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH ON SATURDAY...FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
BKN/OVC HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS.
HIGHER REFLECTIVITIES STILL SEEN ON KOKX RADAR MAINLY OVER
MIDDLESEX COUNTY CT ATTM ARE NOT SHOWERS BUT BIRDS...WHICH SHOULD
RETURN TO OLD LYME TO ROOST TOWARD SUNSET. MEANWHILE...SPRINKLES
ASSOCIATED WITH WITH A STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL VORT MAX AHEAD OF
AN APCHG UPPER TROUGH STREAMING NE INTO NYC METRO THIS EVENING.
THIS SHORTWAVE SHOULD THEN PRODUCE ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN OR
SPRINKLES MAINLY OVER SRN CT AND LONG ISLAND OVERNIGHT...WHILE A
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT NOW STRETCHING FROM SRN NH INTO CENTRAL AND
EASTERN MA CONTINUES SW-WARD...AND PUSHES THROUGH OVERNIGHT...
TURNING LOW LEVEL FLOW TO THE E-NE.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD BE MID AND UPPER 50S INLAND/LONG ISLAND
PINE BARRENS...AND LOWER/MID 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES ALOFT WITH THE SLOW MOVING
UPPER TROUGH ON TUE...AND AHEAD OF A MORE POTENT UPPER LOW APCHG
FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES LATE DAY TUE INTO TUE NIGHT...SHOULD
MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND CHANCES FOR ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS
THROUGH THE PD. E-NE FLOW OF MARITIME AIR WILL ALSO PERSIST...WITH
TEMPS CLOSER TO BUT STILL A COUPLE OF DEG ABOVE AVG.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHRTWV DROPPING INTO NRN MN WILL PASS THRU THE CWA AS A CLOSED H5
LOW ON WED. 12Z MODEL TIMING IS CONSISTENT AMONG THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF.
H85-H5 LAPSE RATES IN THE 5-6C/KM RANGE. DPVA SHOULD BE ABLE TO
OVERCOME THE WEAK CAP AROUND H7. AS A RESULT...WILL FCST SCT SHWRS
WED...ENDING FROM W TO E WED NGT AS THE UPR LOW SLOWLY EXITS. DEPTH
OF CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR AN ISOLD
LIGHTNING FLASH...ESPECIALLY OVER OR INVOF THE WATER WHERE THE WARM
AND MOIST BL WILL YIELD A SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE COLUMN.

SFC RIDGING EXTENDS SWD FROM ERN CANADA THU AND FRI. THIS WILL KEEP
A COOL NE-LY FLOW IN PLACE PRODUCING SEASONAL TEMPS. A MOIST MARINE
LAYER BLW THE DRY MID AND UPR LVLS WITH SUBSIDENCE...SO THE SETUP
WILL NOT BE CONDUCIVE TO ANY CONVECTION OR SIGNIFICANT PCPN. THE
MOST LIKELY SCENARIO WOULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES OR EVEN AREAS OF DZ.
HAVE INCLUDED CHC SPRINKLES WHERE THE GREATEST POOLING OF LLVL
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED ATTM.

MAIN PCPN EVEN IN THE LONG RANGE IS TAKING SHAPE FOR SAT. THE
PRIMARY DRIVER IS A STRONG UPR LOW OVER AK WHICH WILL DROP INTO THE
GREAT LAKES THRU THE PERIOD. STRONG RETURN FLOW FRI NGT PRODUCES
GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA FOR SAT. THE ASSOCIATED CDFNT
AND UPR DYNAMICS THEN PRODUCE A ROUND OF RAIN ON SAT. HAVE INCLUDED
LIKELY POPS IN THE FCST.

DRY ON SUN. A BLEND OF DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE DATA INDICATES
TEMPS WILL NOT GET OUT OF THE 60S. AS THE BROAD UPR LOW/TROF REACHES
THE AREA AROUND MON...THERE IS THE CHC THAT SOMETHING COULD DEVELOP
IN RESPONSE. ECMWF HAD A SFC LOW SPINNING UP...AND THE GFS HAS COLD
POOL TYPE SHWRS. HAVE INCLUDED SCHC POPS AND CLOUDY SKIES AS A
RESULT.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT THEN PUSHES THROUGH FROM THE NORTHEAST TOWARDS
DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

VFR. A FEW SPRINKLES OR ISOLATED -SHRA POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN TERMINALS THIS EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OUTSIDE OF SEA BREEZE INFLUENCES.
SEABREEZE EXPECTED TO WORK THROUGH KLGA/KEWR THROUGH 2230Z. WINDS WITH
SEA BREEZES AROUND 8 KT. SEABREEZE DIMINISHES BY AROUND 00-01Z.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: 180 MAG SEABREEZE THROUGH 24Z. WIND SPEED 8
KT OR LESS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: 170-180 MAG SEABREEZE BTWN 22 AND 24Z. WIND
SPEED 8 KT OR LESS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: 150-170 MAG SEABREEZE BTWN 22 AND 24Z. WIND
SPEED 8 KT OR LESS.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUE-TUE NIGHT...VFR LIKELY. CHC -SHRA E-NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.WED...CHC MVFR CIGS/VSBYS/-SHRA. E-NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.THU...CHC MVFR MAINLY AM. E-NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.FRI...VFR. SE-S WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.SAT...RAIN LIKELY. CHC MVFR OR LOWER. SW WINDS AM BECMG WNW PM.
GUSTS 20-25KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH TUE. PERSISTENT/INCREASING E-NE FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN SCA
CONDS TUE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY LATE. TOO EARLY TO ISSUE SCA FOR THIS
TIME FRAME.

THESE CONDS COULD CONTINUE INTO THU...ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN AND
THE ERN SOUND/BAYS. WINDS AND WAVES WILL DECREASE ON FRI...ONLY TO
RAPIDLY BUILD AGAIN ON SAT WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A
CDFNT. WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS ON SUNDAY ATTM.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN EXPECTED THROUGH TUE NIGHT. A FEW TENTHS OF
AN INCH OF RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE WED-WED NGT. UP TO AN INCH OF
RAIN IS POSSIBLE ON SAT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...GOODMAN/SEARS
HYDROLOGY...SEARS/TONGUE







000
FXUS61 KOKX 292055
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
455 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL THEN AFFECT THE NORTHEAST DURING MID WEEK...
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH ON SATURDAY...FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
BKN/OVC HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS.
HIGHER REFLECTIVITIES STILL SEEN ON KOKX RADAR MAINLY OVER
MIDDLESEX COUNTY CT ATTM ARE NOT SHOWERS BUT BIRDS...WHICH SHOULD
RETURN TO OLD LYME TO ROOST TOWARD SUNSET. MEANWHILE...TPHL RADAR
SHOWS REAL SPRINKLES ASSOCIATED WITH WITH A STRENGTHENING MID
LEVEL VORT MAX AHEAD OF AN APCHG UPPER TROUGH STREAMING NE INTO
PHILLY METRO ATTM...AND THESE SHOULD CONTINUE INTO NYC METRO THIS
EVENING. THIS SHORTWAVE SHOULD THEN PRODUCE ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN
OR SPRINKLES MAINLY OVER SRN CT AND LONG ISLAND OVERNIGHT...WHILE
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT NOW STRETCHING FROM SRN NH INTO CENTRAL AND
EASTERN MA CONTINUES SW-WARD...AND PUSHES THROUGH OVERNIGHT...
TURNING LOW LEVEL FLOW TO THE E-NE.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD BE MID AND UPPER 50S INLAND/LONG ISLAND
PINE BARRENS...AND LOWER/MID 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES ALOFT WITH THE SLOW MOVING
UPPER TROUGH ON TUE...AND AHEAD OF A MORE POTENT UPPER LOW APCHG
FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES LATE DAY TUE INTO TUE NIGHT...SHOULD
MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND CHANCES FOR ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS
THROUGH THE PD. E-NE FLOW OF MARITIME AIR WILL ALSO PERSIST...WITH
TEMPS CLOSER TO BUT STILL A COUPLE OF DEG ABOVE AVG.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHRTWV DROPPING INTO NRN MN WILL PASS THRU THE CWA AS A CLOSED H5
LOW ON WED. 12Z MODEL TIMING IS CONSISTENT AMONG THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF.
H85-H5 LAPSE RATES IN THE 5-6C/KM RANGE. DPVA SHOULD BE ABLE TO
OVERCOME THE WEAK CAP AROUND H7. AS A RESULT...WILL FCST SCT SHWRS
WED...ENDING FROM W TO E WED NGT AS THE UPR LOW SLOWLY EXITS. DEPTH
OF CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR AN ISOLD
LIGHTNING FLASH...ESPECIALLY OVER OR INVOF THE WATER WHERE THE WARM
AND MOIST BL WILL YIELD A SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE COLUMN.

SFC RIDGING EXTENDS SWD FROM ERN CANADA THU AND FRI. THIS WILL KEEP
A COOL NE-LY FLOW IN PLACE PRODUCING SEASONAL TEMPS. A MOIST MARINE
LAYER BLW THE DRY MID AND UPR LVLS WITH SUBSIDENCE...SO THE SETUP
WILL NOT BE CONDUCIVE TO ANY CONVECTION OR SIGNIFICANT PCPN. THE
MOST LIKELY SCENARIO WOULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES OR EVEN AREAS OF DZ.
HAVE INCLUDED CHC SPRINKLES WHERE THE GREATEST POOLING OF LLVL
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED ATTM.

MAIN PCPN EVEN IN THE LONG RANGE IS TAKING SHAPE FOR SAT. THE
PRIMARY DRIVER IS A STRONG UPR LOW OVER AK WHICH WILL DROP INTO THE
GREAT LAKES THRU THE PERIOD. STRONG RETURN FLOW FRI NGT PRODUCES
GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA FOR SAT. THE ASSOCIATED CDFNT
AND UPR DYNAMICS THEN PRODUCE A ROUND OF RAIN ON SAT. HAVE INCLUDED
LIKELY POPS IN THE FCST.

DRY ON SUN. A BLEND OF DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE DATA INDICATES
TEMPS WILL NOT GET OUT OF THE 60S. AS THE BROAD UPR LOW/TROF REACHES
THE AREA AROUND MON...THERE IS THE CHC THAT SOMETHING COULD DEVELOP
IN RESPONSE. ECMWF HAD A SFC LOW SPINNING UP...AND THE GFS HAS COLD
POOL TYPE SHWRS. HAVE INCLUDED SCHC POPS AND CLOUDY SKIES AS A
RESULT.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS IN THE VICINITY TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT
THEN PUSHES THROUGH TOWARDS DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

VFR. A FEW SPRINKLES OR ISOLATED -SHRA POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN TERMINALS THIS EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OUTSIDE OF SEA BREEZE INFLUENCES.
SEABREEZE PUSHING INTO JFK AS OF 21Z...WITH POTENTIAL TO REACH
KLGA BTWN BETWEEN 22-23Z. WINDS WITH SEA BREEZES AROUND 8-12 KT.
SEABREEZE DIMINISHES BY AROUND 00-01Z.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: CHANCE THAT WINDS ARE OFTEN CLOSER TO 220-190
MAGNETIC.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: LIGHT AND VARIABLE INTO THIS EVENING. SOUTHERLY
SEA BREEZE AT 8-10 KT COULD PUSH THROUGH BTWN 22-23Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE LIKELY DOES NOT OCCUR. IF IT
DID...IT WOULD PROBABLY OCCUR BETWEEN 22-23Z. WINDS WOULD THEN
SHIFT TO 150-170 MAG DURING THAT TIME. WIND SPEED 8 KT OR LESS.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUE-TUE NIGHT...VFR LIKELY. CHC -SHRA E-NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.WED...CHC MVFR CIGS/VSBYS/-SHRA. E-NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.THU...CHC MVFR MAINLY AM. E-NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.FRI...VFR. SE-S WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.SAT...RAIN LIKELY. CHC MVFR OR LOWER. SW WINDS AM BECMG WNW PM.
GUSTS 20-25KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH TUE. PERSISTENT/INCREASING E-NE FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN SCA
CONDS TUE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY LATE. TOO EARLY TO ISSUE SCA FOR THIS
TIME FRAME.

THESE CONDS COULD CONTINUE INTO THU...ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN AND
THE ERN SOUND/BAYS. WINDS AND WAVES WILL DECREASE ON FRI...ONLY TO
RAPIDLY BUILD AGAIN ON SAT WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A
CDFNT. WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS ON SUNDAY ATTM.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN EXPECTED THROUGH TUE NIGHT. A FEW TENTHS OF
AN INCH OF RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE WED-WED NGT. UP TO AN INCH OF
RAIN IS POSSIBLE ON SAT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...GOODMAN/SEARS
HYDROLOGY...SEARS/TONGUE







000
FXUS61 KOKX 292055
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
455 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL THEN AFFECT THE NORTHEAST DURING MID WEEK...
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH ON SATURDAY...FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
BKN/OVC HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS.
HIGHER REFLECTIVITIES STILL SEEN ON KOKX RADAR MAINLY OVER
MIDDLESEX COUNTY CT ATTM ARE NOT SHOWERS BUT BIRDS...WHICH SHOULD
RETURN TO OLD LYME TO ROOST TOWARD SUNSET. MEANWHILE...TPHL RADAR
SHOWS REAL SPRINKLES ASSOCIATED WITH WITH A STRENGTHENING MID
LEVEL VORT MAX AHEAD OF AN APCHG UPPER TROUGH STREAMING NE INTO
PHILLY METRO ATTM...AND THESE SHOULD CONTINUE INTO NYC METRO THIS
EVENING. THIS SHORTWAVE SHOULD THEN PRODUCE ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN
OR SPRINKLES MAINLY OVER SRN CT AND LONG ISLAND OVERNIGHT...WHILE
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT NOW STRETCHING FROM SRN NH INTO CENTRAL AND
EASTERN MA CONTINUES SW-WARD...AND PUSHES THROUGH OVERNIGHT...
TURNING LOW LEVEL FLOW TO THE E-NE.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD BE MID AND UPPER 50S INLAND/LONG ISLAND
PINE BARRENS...AND LOWER/MID 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES ALOFT WITH THE SLOW MOVING
UPPER TROUGH ON TUE...AND AHEAD OF A MORE POTENT UPPER LOW APCHG
FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES LATE DAY TUE INTO TUE NIGHT...SHOULD
MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND CHANCES FOR ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS
THROUGH THE PD. E-NE FLOW OF MARITIME AIR WILL ALSO PERSIST...WITH
TEMPS CLOSER TO BUT STILL A COUPLE OF DEG ABOVE AVG.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHRTWV DROPPING INTO NRN MN WILL PASS THRU THE CWA AS A CLOSED H5
LOW ON WED. 12Z MODEL TIMING IS CONSISTENT AMONG THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF.
H85-H5 LAPSE RATES IN THE 5-6C/KM RANGE. DPVA SHOULD BE ABLE TO
OVERCOME THE WEAK CAP AROUND H7. AS A RESULT...WILL FCST SCT SHWRS
WED...ENDING FROM W TO E WED NGT AS THE UPR LOW SLOWLY EXITS. DEPTH
OF CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR AN ISOLD
LIGHTNING FLASH...ESPECIALLY OVER OR INVOF THE WATER WHERE THE WARM
AND MOIST BL WILL YIELD A SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE COLUMN.

SFC RIDGING EXTENDS SWD FROM ERN CANADA THU AND FRI. THIS WILL KEEP
A COOL NE-LY FLOW IN PLACE PRODUCING SEASONAL TEMPS. A MOIST MARINE
LAYER BLW THE DRY MID AND UPR LVLS WITH SUBSIDENCE...SO THE SETUP
WILL NOT BE CONDUCIVE TO ANY CONVECTION OR SIGNIFICANT PCPN. THE
MOST LIKELY SCENARIO WOULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES OR EVEN AREAS OF DZ.
HAVE INCLUDED CHC SPRINKLES WHERE THE GREATEST POOLING OF LLVL
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED ATTM.

MAIN PCPN EVEN IN THE LONG RANGE IS TAKING SHAPE FOR SAT. THE
PRIMARY DRIVER IS A STRONG UPR LOW OVER AK WHICH WILL DROP INTO THE
GREAT LAKES THRU THE PERIOD. STRONG RETURN FLOW FRI NGT PRODUCES
GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA FOR SAT. THE ASSOCIATED CDFNT
AND UPR DYNAMICS THEN PRODUCE A ROUND OF RAIN ON SAT. HAVE INCLUDED
LIKELY POPS IN THE FCST.

DRY ON SUN. A BLEND OF DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE DATA INDICATES
TEMPS WILL NOT GET OUT OF THE 60S. AS THE BROAD UPR LOW/TROF REACHES
THE AREA AROUND MON...THERE IS THE CHC THAT SOMETHING COULD DEVELOP
IN RESPONSE. ECMWF HAD A SFC LOW SPINNING UP...AND THE GFS HAS COLD
POOL TYPE SHWRS. HAVE INCLUDED SCHC POPS AND CLOUDY SKIES AS A
RESULT.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS IN THE VICINITY TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT
THEN PUSHES THROUGH TOWARDS DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

VFR. A FEW SPRINKLES OR ISOLATED -SHRA POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN TERMINALS THIS EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OUTSIDE OF SEA BREEZE INFLUENCES.
SEABREEZE PUSHING INTO JFK AS OF 21Z...WITH POTENTIAL TO REACH
KLGA BTWN BETWEEN 22-23Z. WINDS WITH SEA BREEZES AROUND 8-12 KT.
SEABREEZE DIMINISHES BY AROUND 00-01Z.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: CHANCE THAT WINDS ARE OFTEN CLOSER TO 220-190
MAGNETIC.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: LIGHT AND VARIABLE INTO THIS EVENING. SOUTHERLY
SEA BREEZE AT 8-10 KT COULD PUSH THROUGH BTWN 22-23Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE LIKELY DOES NOT OCCUR. IF IT
DID...IT WOULD PROBABLY OCCUR BETWEEN 22-23Z. WINDS WOULD THEN
SHIFT TO 150-170 MAG DURING THAT TIME. WIND SPEED 8 KT OR LESS.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUE-TUE NIGHT...VFR LIKELY. CHC -SHRA E-NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.WED...CHC MVFR CIGS/VSBYS/-SHRA. E-NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.THU...CHC MVFR MAINLY AM. E-NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.FRI...VFR. SE-S WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.SAT...RAIN LIKELY. CHC MVFR OR LOWER. SW WINDS AM BECMG WNW PM.
GUSTS 20-25KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH TUE. PERSISTENT/INCREASING E-NE FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN SCA
CONDS TUE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY LATE. TOO EARLY TO ISSUE SCA FOR THIS
TIME FRAME.

THESE CONDS COULD CONTINUE INTO THU...ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN AND
THE ERN SOUND/BAYS. WINDS AND WAVES WILL DECREASE ON FRI...ONLY TO
RAPIDLY BUILD AGAIN ON SAT WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A
CDFNT. WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS ON SUNDAY ATTM.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN EXPECTED THROUGH TUE NIGHT. A FEW TENTHS OF
AN INCH OF RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE WED-WED NGT. UP TO AN INCH OF
RAIN IS POSSIBLE ON SAT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...GOODMAN/SEARS
HYDROLOGY...SEARS/TONGUE






000
FXUS61 KALY 292050
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
450 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT AND ON
TUESDAY...BRINGING SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR. THE COMBINATION OF THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM THE WEST
WILL ALSO RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES REMAINING A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MUCH
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY/...
THE STREAM OF MID/HI LEVEL CLOUDS SURGING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE
NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO AND FROM OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT. SIMILAR TO TODAY...THIS CLOUDINESS WILL TEND TO
THIN AND RECEDE AT TIMES...BUT MOST OF THE REGION WILL AVERAGE
MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW LOTS OF
PCPN ALOFT (VIRGA)...THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE TOO DRY
TO ALLOW ANY OF THIS PCPN TO REACH THE GROUND. DUE TO THE CLOUD
COVER...TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE A LITTLE MILDER...WITH LOWS FORECAST
TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE BACKDOOR BOUNDARY WILL DROP SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION BY
TUESDAY...AND INTERACT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. THIS WILL RESULT
IN SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION...BUT NO WIDESPREAD PCPN IS
EXPECTED DUE TO THE WEAKNESS OF BOTH SYSTEMS. HAVE ONLY FORECAST 20
TO 40 PERCENT POPS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ALSO EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD. THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. HAVE ONLY INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST AREAS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE
DECREASING TO PARTLY CLOUDY.

TEMPS WILL CONTINUE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WILL BE BETWEEN 65 AND 75. LOWS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHTS WILL BE BETWEEN 45 AND 55.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT ON THURSDAY WITH OUR REGION UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...WITH A SURFACE HIGH LOCATED OVER
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES PROVIDING A WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW. SO DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING ABOVE NORMAL.
ON FRIDAY A POTENT UPPER TROUGH MIGRATES EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES...WITH A DEVELOPING SURFACE WAVE IN SOUTHEAST CANADA. WITH THE
SURFACE RIDGE HOLDING ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ESPECIALLY LATE IN
THE DAY. 12Z GFS/ECMWF IN AGREEMENT WITH HOLDING OFF MUCH OF THE
RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT...SO WILL
ONLY MENTION LOW CHANCE POPS WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY THROUGH
SUNSET.

THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE FOR A PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD MODERATE
RAINFALL FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSS OUR REGION. GOOD MOISTURE
INFLUX WITH 40+ KT LOW LEVEL SOUTHERN FLOW ALONG WITH GUIDANCE
INDICATING A POSSIBLE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD
FRONT AS IT PASSES THROUGH...WHICH COULD ENHANCE RAINFALL. AS OF NOW
IT LOOKS LIKE A AROUND 0.50-1.00 INCHES OF RAIN MAY OCCUR BUT DUE TO
THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM GREATER AMOUNTS ARE NOT
LIKELY. RAINFALL SHOULD TAPER OFF ON SATURDAY...WITH SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES NOTED IN MODELS. AT LEAST THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY MAY
END UP DRYING...ESPECIALLY FROM ALBANY WESTWARD.

A MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURE REGIME WILL THEN SET UP BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD ON
MONDAY...AS A PATTERN SHIFT IS FORECAST TO OCCUR WITH A LONG WAVE
TROUGH SETTING UP ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. FROM SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY...THERE WILL BE PERIODIC CHANCES FOR A FEW SHOWERS AS
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH. THE BEST CHANCES WILL
BE OVER THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY WHERE LAKE
ENHANCED SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DUE TO LAKE-AIR TEMP
DIFFERENTIALS INCREASING WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT MOVING IN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE TAF SITES FROM THE NORTH
AND EAST THIS EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL THEN MOVE SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE TAF SITES BY TUESDAY MORNING...AS COOL AND DAMP AIR GRADUALLY
MOVES IN FROM NORTHERN AND EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 02Z-04Z/TUE.
THEREAFTER...AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...SOME LOWER CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND/OR ADVECT ACROSS THE TAF
SITES...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 06Z-10Z/TUE. THESE SHOULD LEAD TO AREAS
OF MVFR CIGS...WITH SOME POSSIBILITY OF EMBEDDED IFR CIGS AT KPSF.

CIGS MAY REMAIN IN THE MVFR RANGE INTO MIDDAY TUESDAY.
ALSO...ISOLATED SHOWERS OR SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE MAY DEVELOP...ESP
AFTER 15Z/TUE...WHICH COULD PRODUCE SOME MVFR VSBYS...ESP AT
KPSF.

WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THIS
EVENING...THEN SHIFT INTO THE EAST AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND
INCREASE TO 5-10 KT...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT 5-10 KT THROUGH MIDDAY
TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG
WX.
FRIDAY-SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH VALUES WILL RECOVER TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD
DEW FORMATION AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.

RH VALUES WILL ONLY DROP TO 60 TO 70 PERCENT ON TUESDAY WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A FEW RAIN SHOWERS AROUND...MAINLY FOR
WESTERN/SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION. S-SE WINDS WILL BE AROUND 5
TO 10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC RELATED ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY FOR MOST OF THIS WEEK. THE ONLY
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL COME AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS INTO THE
AREA AND STALLS ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION. WITH THIS
BOUNDARY AROUND...AND SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANY RAIN SHOWERS THAT OCCUR WILL HAVE LITTLE OR
NO EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. MOST RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE
RUNNING BELOW NORMAL...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...GJM/FRUGIS










000
FXUS61 KALY 292050
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
450 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT AND ON
TUESDAY...BRINGING SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR. THE COMBINATION OF THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM THE WEST
WILL ALSO RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES REMAINING A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MUCH
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY/...
THE STREAM OF MID/HI LEVEL CLOUDS SURGING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE
NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO AND FROM OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT. SIMILAR TO TODAY...THIS CLOUDINESS WILL TEND TO
THIN AND RECEDE AT TIMES...BUT MOST OF THE REGION WILL AVERAGE
MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW LOTS OF
PCPN ALOFT (VIRGA)...THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE TOO DRY
TO ALLOW ANY OF THIS PCPN TO REACH THE GROUND. DUE TO THE CLOUD
COVER...TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE A LITTLE MILDER...WITH LOWS FORECAST
TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE BACKDOOR BOUNDARY WILL DROP SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION BY
TUESDAY...AND INTERACT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. THIS WILL RESULT
IN SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION...BUT NO WIDESPREAD PCPN IS
EXPECTED DUE TO THE WEAKNESS OF BOTH SYSTEMS. HAVE ONLY FORECAST 20
TO 40 PERCENT POPS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ALSO EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD. THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. HAVE ONLY INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST AREAS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE
DECREASING TO PARTLY CLOUDY.

TEMPS WILL CONTINUE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WILL BE BETWEEN 65 AND 75. LOWS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHTS WILL BE BETWEEN 45 AND 55.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT ON THURSDAY WITH OUR REGION UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...WITH A SURFACE HIGH LOCATED OVER
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES PROVIDING A WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW. SO DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING ABOVE NORMAL.
ON FRIDAY A POTENT UPPER TROUGH MIGRATES EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES...WITH A DEVELOPING SURFACE WAVE IN SOUTHEAST CANADA. WITH THE
SURFACE RIDGE HOLDING ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ESPECIALLY LATE IN
THE DAY. 12Z GFS/ECMWF IN AGREEMENT WITH HOLDING OFF MUCH OF THE
RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT...SO WILL
ONLY MENTION LOW CHANCE POPS WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY THROUGH
SUNSET.

THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE FOR A PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD MODERATE
RAINFALL FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSS OUR REGION. GOOD MOISTURE
INFLUX WITH 40+ KT LOW LEVEL SOUTHERN FLOW ALONG WITH GUIDANCE
INDICATING A POSSIBLE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD
FRONT AS IT PASSES THROUGH...WHICH COULD ENHANCE RAINFALL. AS OF NOW
IT LOOKS LIKE A AROUND 0.50-1.00 INCHES OF RAIN MAY OCCUR BUT DUE TO
THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM GREATER AMOUNTS ARE NOT
LIKELY. RAINFALL SHOULD TAPER OFF ON SATURDAY...WITH SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES NOTED IN MODELS. AT LEAST THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY MAY
END UP DRYING...ESPECIALLY FROM ALBANY WESTWARD.

A MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURE REGIME WILL THEN SET UP BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD ON
MONDAY...AS A PATTERN SHIFT IS FORECAST TO OCCUR WITH A LONG WAVE
TROUGH SETTING UP ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. FROM SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY...THERE WILL BE PERIODIC CHANCES FOR A FEW SHOWERS AS
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH. THE BEST CHANCES WILL
BE OVER THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY WHERE LAKE
ENHANCED SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DUE TO LAKE-AIR TEMP
DIFFERENTIALS INCREASING WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT MOVING IN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE TAF SITES FROM THE NORTH
AND EAST THIS EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL THEN MOVE SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE TAF SITES BY TUESDAY MORNING...AS COOL AND DAMP AIR GRADUALLY
MOVES IN FROM NORTHERN AND EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 02Z-04Z/TUE.
THEREAFTER...AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...SOME LOWER CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND/OR ADVECT ACROSS THE TAF
SITES...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 06Z-10Z/TUE. THESE SHOULD LEAD TO AREAS
OF MVFR CIGS...WITH SOME POSSIBILITY OF EMBEDDED IFR CIGS AT KPSF.

CIGS MAY REMAIN IN THE MVFR RANGE INTO MIDDAY TUESDAY.
ALSO...ISOLATED SHOWERS OR SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE MAY DEVELOP...ESP
AFTER 15Z/TUE...WHICH COULD PRODUCE SOME MVFR VSBYS...ESP AT
KPSF.

WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THIS
EVENING...THEN SHIFT INTO THE EAST AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND
INCREASE TO 5-10 KT...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT 5-10 KT THROUGH MIDDAY
TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG
WX.
FRIDAY-SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH VALUES WILL RECOVER TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD
DEW FORMATION AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.

RH VALUES WILL ONLY DROP TO 60 TO 70 PERCENT ON TUESDAY WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A FEW RAIN SHOWERS AROUND...MAINLY FOR
WESTERN/SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION. S-SE WINDS WILL BE AROUND 5
TO 10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC RELATED ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY FOR MOST OF THIS WEEK. THE ONLY
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL COME AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS INTO THE
AREA AND STALLS ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION. WITH THIS
BOUNDARY AROUND...AND SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANY RAIN SHOWERS THAT OCCUR WILL HAVE LITTLE OR
NO EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. MOST RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE
RUNNING BELOW NORMAL...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...GJM/FRUGIS










000
FXUS61 KALY 292050
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
450 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT AND ON
TUESDAY...BRINGING SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR. THE COMBINATION OF THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM THE WEST
WILL ALSO RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES REMAINING A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MUCH
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY/...
THE STREAM OF MID/HI LEVEL CLOUDS SURGING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE
NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO AND FROM OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT. SIMILAR TO TODAY...THIS CLOUDINESS WILL TEND TO
THIN AND RECEDE AT TIMES...BUT MOST OF THE REGION WILL AVERAGE
MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW LOTS OF
PCPN ALOFT (VIRGA)...THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE TOO DRY
TO ALLOW ANY OF THIS PCPN TO REACH THE GROUND. DUE TO THE CLOUD
COVER...TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE A LITTLE MILDER...WITH LOWS FORECAST
TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE BACKDOOR BOUNDARY WILL DROP SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION BY
TUESDAY...AND INTERACT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. THIS WILL RESULT
IN SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION...BUT NO WIDESPREAD PCPN IS
EXPECTED DUE TO THE WEAKNESS OF BOTH SYSTEMS. HAVE ONLY FORECAST 20
TO 40 PERCENT POPS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ALSO EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD. THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. HAVE ONLY INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST AREAS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE
DECREASING TO PARTLY CLOUDY.

TEMPS WILL CONTINUE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WILL BE BETWEEN 65 AND 75. LOWS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHTS WILL BE BETWEEN 45 AND 55.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT ON THURSDAY WITH OUR REGION UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...WITH A SURFACE HIGH LOCATED OVER
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES PROVIDING A WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW. SO DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING ABOVE NORMAL.
ON FRIDAY A POTENT UPPER TROUGH MIGRATES EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES...WITH A DEVELOPING SURFACE WAVE IN SOUTHEAST CANADA. WITH THE
SURFACE RIDGE HOLDING ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ESPECIALLY LATE IN
THE DAY. 12Z GFS/ECMWF IN AGREEMENT WITH HOLDING OFF MUCH OF THE
RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT...SO WILL
ONLY MENTION LOW CHANCE POPS WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY THROUGH
SUNSET.

THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE FOR A PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD MODERATE
RAINFALL FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSS OUR REGION. GOOD MOISTURE
INFLUX WITH 40+ KT LOW LEVEL SOUTHERN FLOW ALONG WITH GUIDANCE
INDICATING A POSSIBLE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD
FRONT AS IT PASSES THROUGH...WHICH COULD ENHANCE RAINFALL. AS OF NOW
IT LOOKS LIKE A AROUND 0.50-1.00 INCHES OF RAIN MAY OCCUR BUT DUE TO
THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM GREATER AMOUNTS ARE NOT
LIKELY. RAINFALL SHOULD TAPER OFF ON SATURDAY...WITH SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES NOTED IN MODELS. AT LEAST THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY MAY
END UP DRYING...ESPECIALLY FROM ALBANY WESTWARD.

A MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURE REGIME WILL THEN SET UP BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD ON
MONDAY...AS A PATTERN SHIFT IS FORECAST TO OCCUR WITH A LONG WAVE
TROUGH SETTING UP ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. FROM SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY...THERE WILL BE PERIODIC CHANCES FOR A FEW SHOWERS AS
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH. THE BEST CHANCES WILL
BE OVER THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY WHERE LAKE
ENHANCED SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DUE TO LAKE-AIR TEMP
DIFFERENTIALS INCREASING WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT MOVING IN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE TAF SITES FROM THE NORTH
AND EAST THIS EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL THEN MOVE SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE TAF SITES BY TUESDAY MORNING...AS COOL AND DAMP AIR GRADUALLY
MOVES IN FROM NORTHERN AND EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 02Z-04Z/TUE.
THEREAFTER...AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...SOME LOWER CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND/OR ADVECT ACROSS THE TAF
SITES...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 06Z-10Z/TUE. THESE SHOULD LEAD TO AREAS
OF MVFR CIGS...WITH SOME POSSIBILITY OF EMBEDDED IFR CIGS AT KPSF.

CIGS MAY REMAIN IN THE MVFR RANGE INTO MIDDAY TUESDAY.
ALSO...ISOLATED SHOWERS OR SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE MAY DEVELOP...ESP
AFTER 15Z/TUE...WHICH COULD PRODUCE SOME MVFR VSBYS...ESP AT
KPSF.

WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THIS
EVENING...THEN SHIFT INTO THE EAST AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND
INCREASE TO 5-10 KT...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT 5-10 KT THROUGH MIDDAY
TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG
WX.
FRIDAY-SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH VALUES WILL RECOVER TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD
DEW FORMATION AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.

RH VALUES WILL ONLY DROP TO 60 TO 70 PERCENT ON TUESDAY WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A FEW RAIN SHOWERS AROUND...MAINLY FOR
WESTERN/SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION. S-SE WINDS WILL BE AROUND 5
TO 10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC RELATED ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY FOR MOST OF THIS WEEK. THE ONLY
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL COME AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS INTO THE
AREA AND STALLS ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION. WITH THIS
BOUNDARY AROUND...AND SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANY RAIN SHOWERS THAT OCCUR WILL HAVE LITTLE OR
NO EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. MOST RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE
RUNNING BELOW NORMAL...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...GJM/FRUGIS










000
FXUS61 KALY 292050
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
450 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT AND ON
TUESDAY...BRINGING SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR. THE COMBINATION OF THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM THE WEST
WILL ALSO RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES REMAINING A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MUCH
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY/...
THE STREAM OF MID/HI LEVEL CLOUDS SURGING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE
NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO AND FROM OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT. SIMILAR TO TODAY...THIS CLOUDINESS WILL TEND TO
THIN AND RECEDE AT TIMES...BUT MOST OF THE REGION WILL AVERAGE
MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW LOTS OF
PCPN ALOFT (VIRGA)...THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE TOO DRY
TO ALLOW ANY OF THIS PCPN TO REACH THE GROUND. DUE TO THE CLOUD
COVER...TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE A LITTLE MILDER...WITH LOWS FORECAST
TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE BACKDOOR BOUNDARY WILL DROP SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION BY
TUESDAY...AND INTERACT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. THIS WILL RESULT
IN SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION...BUT NO WIDESPREAD PCPN IS
EXPECTED DUE TO THE WEAKNESS OF BOTH SYSTEMS. HAVE ONLY FORECAST 20
TO 40 PERCENT POPS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ALSO EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD. THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. HAVE ONLY INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST AREAS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE
DECREASING TO PARTLY CLOUDY.

TEMPS WILL CONTINUE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WILL BE BETWEEN 65 AND 75. LOWS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHTS WILL BE BETWEEN 45 AND 55.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT ON THURSDAY WITH OUR REGION UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...WITH A SURFACE HIGH LOCATED OVER
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES PROVIDING A WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW. SO DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING ABOVE NORMAL.
ON FRIDAY A POTENT UPPER TROUGH MIGRATES EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES...WITH A DEVELOPING SURFACE WAVE IN SOUTHEAST CANADA. WITH THE
SURFACE RIDGE HOLDING ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ESPECIALLY LATE IN
THE DAY. 12Z GFS/ECMWF IN AGREEMENT WITH HOLDING OFF MUCH OF THE
RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT...SO WILL
ONLY MENTION LOW CHANCE POPS WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY THROUGH
SUNSET.

THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE FOR A PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD MODERATE
RAINFALL FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSS OUR REGION. GOOD MOISTURE
INFLUX WITH 40+ KT LOW LEVEL SOUTHERN FLOW ALONG WITH GUIDANCE
INDICATING A POSSIBLE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD
FRONT AS IT PASSES THROUGH...WHICH COULD ENHANCE RAINFALL. AS OF NOW
IT LOOKS LIKE A AROUND 0.50-1.00 INCHES OF RAIN MAY OCCUR BUT DUE TO
THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM GREATER AMOUNTS ARE NOT
LIKELY. RAINFALL SHOULD TAPER OFF ON SATURDAY...WITH SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES NOTED IN MODELS. AT LEAST THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY MAY
END UP DRYING...ESPECIALLY FROM ALBANY WESTWARD.

A MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURE REGIME WILL THEN SET UP BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD ON
MONDAY...AS A PATTERN SHIFT IS FORECAST TO OCCUR WITH A LONG WAVE
TROUGH SETTING UP ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. FROM SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY...THERE WILL BE PERIODIC CHANCES FOR A FEW SHOWERS AS
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH. THE BEST CHANCES WILL
BE OVER THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY WHERE LAKE
ENHANCED SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DUE TO LAKE-AIR TEMP
DIFFERENTIALS INCREASING WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT MOVING IN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE TAF SITES FROM THE NORTH
AND EAST THIS EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL THEN MOVE SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE TAF SITES BY TUESDAY MORNING...AS COOL AND DAMP AIR GRADUALLY
MOVES IN FROM NORTHERN AND EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 02Z-04Z/TUE.
THEREAFTER...AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...SOME LOWER CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND/OR ADVECT ACROSS THE TAF
SITES...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 06Z-10Z/TUE. THESE SHOULD LEAD TO AREAS
OF MVFR CIGS...WITH SOME POSSIBILITY OF EMBEDDED IFR CIGS AT KPSF.

CIGS MAY REMAIN IN THE MVFR RANGE INTO MIDDAY TUESDAY.
ALSO...ISOLATED SHOWERS OR SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE MAY DEVELOP...ESP
AFTER 15Z/TUE...WHICH COULD PRODUCE SOME MVFR VSBYS...ESP AT
KPSF.

WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THIS
EVENING...THEN SHIFT INTO THE EAST AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND
INCREASE TO 5-10 KT...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT 5-10 KT THROUGH MIDDAY
TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG
WX.
FRIDAY-SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH VALUES WILL RECOVER TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD
DEW FORMATION AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.

RH VALUES WILL ONLY DROP TO 60 TO 70 PERCENT ON TUESDAY WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A FEW RAIN SHOWERS AROUND...MAINLY FOR
WESTERN/SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION. S-SE WINDS WILL BE AROUND 5
TO 10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC RELATED ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY FOR MOST OF THIS WEEK. THE ONLY
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL COME AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS INTO THE
AREA AND STALLS ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION. WITH THIS
BOUNDARY AROUND...AND SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANY RAIN SHOWERS THAT OCCUR WILL HAVE LITTLE OR
NO EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. MOST RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE
RUNNING BELOW NORMAL...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...GJM/FRUGIS










000
FXUS61 KBOX 291954
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
354 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE REGION LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT
WILL BRING COOL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK AS
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE. ONE OR TWO WEAK WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE REGION. AN
APPROACHING FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO AFFECT
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
CLOUD COVER HAS ONCE AGAIN REGAINED CONTROL ACROSS THE AREA AFTER
A BRIEF BREAK WITH MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS HAS OCCURRED AS THE TWO MOISTURE STREAMS...ONE TO THE N
ASSOCIATED WITH A DIGGING UPPER LVL CUTOFF AND BACKDOOR-ESQUE COLD
FRONT AND A DEVELOPING MID ATLANTIC COASTAL LOW PRES. USING A MIX
OF CURRENT SFC OBS AND MSAS ISALLOBARIC FLOW...THE COLD FRONT
LOOKS TO HAVE BEGUN SLIDING INTO THE REGION...AND IS CURRENTLY
DRAPED NEAR THE CT VALLEY INTO SE MA. NE FLOW HAS ALREADY
DEVELOPED AND BEGUN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT
AS IT SLIDES THROUGH.

AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE SW MOVEMENT AND OUT OF THE BOX CWA
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...COOLER MARINE FLOW OFF THE GULF OF
MAINE WHERE SST/S ARE AROUND 60F WILL BE UNDERCUTTING WARMER
MOIST AIR JUST ABOVE THE SFC. THE REMNANTS OF A MID LVL RIDGE IS
ALSO PRESENT AS A MID LOW-MID LVL DRY LAYER. THEREFORE...LOOKS
LIKE A GOOD SETUP FOR LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE TO FORM ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FROM NE TO SW. LIKED PREVIOUS
FORECASTER/S THINKING ON THIS SO FOLLOWED THEIR LEAD FAIRLY
CLOSELY. IT LOOKS LIKE...AT LEAST THANKS TO THE CONTINUED N-NE
FLOW THAT THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH NEAR SFC MIXING TO PRECLUDE FOG
IN FAVOR OF DRIZZLE CAUSING VSBY REDUCTIONS. HOWEVER...A FEW
PATCHES OF DENSE FOG CAN/T BE RULED THANKS TO THE COOLER MOIST
FLOW MOVING INLAND. BY EARLY MORNING...A WEAK INVERTED TROF LOOKS
TO DEVELOP BETWEEN THE OFFSHORE SYSTEM MOVING S OF THE REGION AND
THE UPPER LVL CUTOFF. THIS MAY LEAD TO AN INCREASING THREAT FOR
-SHRA RATHER THAN DRIZZLE...PARTICULARLY FOR EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA...REFLECT THIS AS INCREASING POPS TO CHANCE
OVERNIGHT.

LOWS OVERNIGHT DIP BACK INTO INTO THE 50S...NOT AS COOL AS WOULD
BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE OVERNIGHT CLOUD COVER AND MOIST AIR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...
INVERTED TROF AND N-NE FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE MORNING
SO IT MAY TAKE SOME TIME FOR DRIZZLE...FOG AND LOWER CLOUDS TO
COMPLETELY COME TO AN END. IN FACT...-SHRA MAY LINGER INTO THE
AFTERNOON IN THE E. HOWEVER...THANKS TO SOME DIURNAL BL
MIXING...SUSPECT THAT THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE DRIZZLE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH ONLY THE WIDELY SCT -SHRA IN THE E. NOT
EXPECTING A WASHOUT BY ANY MEANS AS THERE IS LITTLE
BAROCLINICITY. OTHERWISE...HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL.
ALTHOUGH EVEN 2M TEMPS HAVE WARMED IN RECENT RUNS INTO THE LOW-MID
60S.

TOMORROW NIGHT...
FAIRLY SIMILAR SETUP TO TONIGHT ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE
FOR PRECIP AS UPPER LVL CUTOFF BEGINS TO SHIFT WITH IT/S BASE
MOVING INTO THE REGION BY MORNING. THEREFORE...GIVEN SIMILAR
SETUP AND COLUMN ACROSS THE AREA...SUSPECT THERE WILL BE SOME
DRIZZLE...FOG AND SHOWERS CONTINUING WITH MIN TEMPS ONCE AGAIN
FALLING BACK INTO THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* NORTHEAST WINDS AND CLOUDS THIS WEEK WILL KEEP TEMPS NEAR NORMAL
* CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE ON WED AND THU
* COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SATURDAY WILL BRING PRECIP TO THE REGION

OVERVIEW...

FALL IS HERE TO STAY FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS 12Z GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. OVERALL THE 12Z
GUIDANCE IS IN GENERALLY AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
WITH ISSUES DOWN AT THE SURFACE. THE TREND FOR THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE
IS THAT THE EC IS MORE AMPLIFIED WHERE THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
IN THE OVERALL PATTERN. THE CMC IS ALSO LESS AMPLIFIED THEN THE EC
WHERE THE UKMET IS THE IN BETWEEN MODEL. BECAUSE OF THE
DIFFERENCES IN GUIDANCE DID A MODEL BLEND AS WELL AS HPC FORECAST
FOR THE EXTENDED.

HAVE A HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT AVERAGE TEMPS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
REGION THIS WEEK. LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE PRECIP POTENTIAL FOR WED AND
THURSDAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIP WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY BUT
STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND WHO WILL SEE THE HIGHER
QPF.


DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CUT OFF RIGHT OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING
THIS TIME FRAME...KEEPING A SURFACE TROUGH/NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER
THE REGION. THIS LOW WILL BRING A FEW SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE REGION
INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR SCT SHOWERS. EASTERN MA HAS THE BEST
CHANCE TO SEE ACCUMULATING PRECIP ESPECIALLY ON WED INTO WED NIGHT.
ANTICIPATE DRIZZLE AND FOG FOR THURSDAY ESP IN EASTERN AREAS AS
UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO MOVE OFFSHORE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INCHES
EASTWARD INTO THE REGION. THUNDER IS NOT ANTICIPATED ON WED AS THE
MARINE LAYER WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE STABLE AND GUIDANCE IS NOT
SHOWING ANY INSTABILITY AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIMEFRAME.


FRIDAY...

QUICK MOVING RIDGE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR RETURN FLOW AND TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. DRY
WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL AS WE WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS.


WEEKEND...

STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY AND IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL PUSH A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION AND BRING SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL.
STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO THE DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM
AS THE EC SEEMS TO BE OUT OF PHASE WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE
GUIDANCE. THEREFORE TRENDED MORE TOWARDS THE 12Z GFS AND ENSEMBLES
FOR THIS PORTION. NOTE THAT IT APPEARS THAT THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM DOES GET STRETCHED AND IS NOT AS ROBUST AS IT IS
ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK. THE OTHER POINT IS THAT THE RIDGE ON
FRIDAY...HOW STRONG WILL IT GET AND HOW MUCH DRY AIR WILL LINGER AS
THE FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION ON SATURDAY. RIGHT NOW PLAN ON
KEEPING CHC POPS TO THE SOUTH AND LIKELY POPS TO THE NORTH...CLOSER
TO THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY. HOPEFULLY GUIDANCE WILL LINE UP WITHIN
THE COMING DAYS.

TRENDING WITH THE GFS/CMC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON SUNDAY
BUT STILL COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS LINGER EARLY SUN MORNING
ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. CAA BEHIND THE FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPS
BELOW AVERAGE WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF LOWER CATEGORIES THIS EVENING.

INTO TONIGHT...
VFR WILL GRADUALLY DIP TO MVFR WITH POCKETS OF IFR THROUGH THE
EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT. LOW CIGS WITH SOME DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL
START IN NE MA AND SE NH...THEN GRADUALLY MOVE TOWARD THE
SW...REACHING THE CT VALLEY AND S COASTS THE LATEST.
THEN...MVFR/IFR REMAINS IN CONTROL THE REST OF THE NIGHT UNDER
PERSISTENT NELY WINDS.

TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...
GENERALLY MORE OF THE SAME...ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY
MAY IMPROVE TO VFR MID MORNING-MID DAY. SOME SHOWERS /HEAVIER
THAN THE OVERNIGHT DRIZZLE...BUT NOT TOO HEAVY/ ARE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE DAY ACROSS E MA AND RI. ANOTHER ROUND OF
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AND POSSIBLE DRIZZLE EXPECTED TOMORROW NIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE
IN EXACT TIMING.  FIRST MVFR CIGS LIKELY 20-22Z.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE
ON EXACT DETAILS.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN
SHOWERS. PATCHY IFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE ACROSS EAST COASTAL SECTIONS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAY SEE LEFTOVER MVFR
CIG/VSBYS EARLY THU ALONG THE E COAST BUT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
FROM WEST TO EAST ON THURSDAY TO VFR. FRIDAY WILL BE VFR.

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR TO LOCAL
IFR IN A LINE OF SHOWERS MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGHOUT THE
DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE NIGHT.

TONIGHT...
WINDS SHIFT NE ACROSS ALL WATERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH
A FEW GUSTS NEAR 25 KT AND SEAS 4-5 FT MAINLY OVER THE WATERS
SURROUNDING CAPE ANN. ELSEWHERE...LESS OF A RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ALTHOUGH INCREASING RISK FOR DRIZZLE AND FOG
AND LOWER VSBYS.

TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...
NE FLOW CONTINUES. THIS PROLONGED NE FETCH WILL YIELD A GRADUALLY
BUILDING SWELL WHICH COULD APPROACH 5 FT BY LATE TOMORROW NIGHT.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY ONCE AGAIN BE NEEDED FOR THIS RISK.
OTHERWISE...NE WIND GUSTS GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 20 KT. ANOTHER
ROUND OF FOG AND DRIZZLE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS TOMORROW NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE WATERS
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. COMBINED WITH EASTERLY SWELL WILL HELP
BUILD SEAS UP TO 5-7 FEET. SCA WILL BE NEEDED.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE WATERS ON FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR
BOTH SEAS AND WINDS TO RELAX. LINGERING SEAS OF 5 OR 6 FEET WILL KEEP
THE SCA IN PLACE FOR THE OUTER WATERS.

APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY WILL ALLOW FOR RETURN FLOW AND
INCREASE IN GUSTS...CLOSE TO 30 KTS. SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD AHEAD OF
AND BEHIND THE FRONT...NEAR 7 FEET. SCA WILL BE NEEDED.

MAY EXPERIENCE A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 1.5 FEET DURING MIDWEEK BUT
THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE NOT ALL THAT HIGH.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DOODY/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...DOODY/DUNTEN
MARINE...DOODY/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 291954
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
354 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE REGION LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT
WILL BRING COOL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK AS
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE. ONE OR TWO WEAK WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE REGION. AN
APPROACHING FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO AFFECT
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
CLOUD COVER HAS ONCE AGAIN REGAINED CONTROL ACROSS THE AREA AFTER
A BRIEF BREAK WITH MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS HAS OCCURRED AS THE TWO MOISTURE STREAMS...ONE TO THE N
ASSOCIATED WITH A DIGGING UPPER LVL CUTOFF AND BACKDOOR-ESQUE COLD
FRONT AND A DEVELOPING MID ATLANTIC COASTAL LOW PRES. USING A MIX
OF CURRENT SFC OBS AND MSAS ISALLOBARIC FLOW...THE COLD FRONT
LOOKS TO HAVE BEGUN SLIDING INTO THE REGION...AND IS CURRENTLY
DRAPED NEAR THE CT VALLEY INTO SE MA. NE FLOW HAS ALREADY
DEVELOPED AND BEGUN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT
AS IT SLIDES THROUGH.

AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE SW MOVEMENT AND OUT OF THE BOX CWA
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...COOLER MARINE FLOW OFF THE GULF OF
MAINE WHERE SST/S ARE AROUND 60F WILL BE UNDERCUTTING WARMER
MOIST AIR JUST ABOVE THE SFC. THE REMNANTS OF A MID LVL RIDGE IS
ALSO PRESENT AS A MID LOW-MID LVL DRY LAYER. THEREFORE...LOOKS
LIKE A GOOD SETUP FOR LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE TO FORM ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FROM NE TO SW. LIKED PREVIOUS
FORECASTER/S THINKING ON THIS SO FOLLOWED THEIR LEAD FAIRLY
CLOSELY. IT LOOKS LIKE...AT LEAST THANKS TO THE CONTINUED N-NE
FLOW THAT THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH NEAR SFC MIXING TO PRECLUDE FOG
IN FAVOR OF DRIZZLE CAUSING VSBY REDUCTIONS. HOWEVER...A FEW
PATCHES OF DENSE FOG CAN/T BE RULED THANKS TO THE COOLER MOIST
FLOW MOVING INLAND. BY EARLY MORNING...A WEAK INVERTED TROF LOOKS
TO DEVELOP BETWEEN THE OFFSHORE SYSTEM MOVING S OF THE REGION AND
THE UPPER LVL CUTOFF. THIS MAY LEAD TO AN INCREASING THREAT FOR
-SHRA RATHER THAN DRIZZLE...PARTICULARLY FOR EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA...REFLECT THIS AS INCREASING POPS TO CHANCE
OVERNIGHT.

LOWS OVERNIGHT DIP BACK INTO INTO THE 50S...NOT AS COOL AS WOULD
BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE OVERNIGHT CLOUD COVER AND MOIST AIR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...
INVERTED TROF AND N-NE FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE MORNING
SO IT MAY TAKE SOME TIME FOR DRIZZLE...FOG AND LOWER CLOUDS TO
COMPLETELY COME TO AN END. IN FACT...-SHRA MAY LINGER INTO THE
AFTERNOON IN THE E. HOWEVER...THANKS TO SOME DIURNAL BL
MIXING...SUSPECT THAT THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE DRIZZLE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH ONLY THE WIDELY SCT -SHRA IN THE E. NOT
EXPECTING A WASHOUT BY ANY MEANS AS THERE IS LITTLE
BAROCLINICITY. OTHERWISE...HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL.
ALTHOUGH EVEN 2M TEMPS HAVE WARMED IN RECENT RUNS INTO THE LOW-MID
60S.

TOMORROW NIGHT...
FAIRLY SIMILAR SETUP TO TONIGHT ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE
FOR PRECIP AS UPPER LVL CUTOFF BEGINS TO SHIFT WITH IT/S BASE
MOVING INTO THE REGION BY MORNING. THEREFORE...GIVEN SIMILAR
SETUP AND COLUMN ACROSS THE AREA...SUSPECT THERE WILL BE SOME
DRIZZLE...FOG AND SHOWERS CONTINUING WITH MIN TEMPS ONCE AGAIN
FALLING BACK INTO THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* NORTHEAST WINDS AND CLOUDS THIS WEEK WILL KEEP TEMPS NEAR NORMAL
* CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE ON WED AND THU
* COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SATURDAY WILL BRING PRECIP TO THE REGION

OVERVIEW...

FALL IS HERE TO STAY FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS 12Z GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. OVERALL THE 12Z
GUIDANCE IS IN GENERALLY AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
WITH ISSUES DOWN AT THE SURFACE. THE TREND FOR THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE
IS THAT THE EC IS MORE AMPLIFIED WHERE THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
IN THE OVERALL PATTERN. THE CMC IS ALSO LESS AMPLIFIED THEN THE EC
WHERE THE UKMET IS THE IN BETWEEN MODEL. BECAUSE OF THE
DIFFERENCES IN GUIDANCE DID A MODEL BLEND AS WELL AS HPC FORECAST
FOR THE EXTENDED.

HAVE A HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT AVERAGE TEMPS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
REGION THIS WEEK. LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE PRECIP POTENTIAL FOR WED AND
THURSDAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIP WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY BUT
STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND WHO WILL SEE THE HIGHER
QPF.


DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CUT OFF RIGHT OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING
THIS TIME FRAME...KEEPING A SURFACE TROUGH/NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER
THE REGION. THIS LOW WILL BRING A FEW SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE REGION
INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR SCT SHOWERS. EASTERN MA HAS THE BEST
CHANCE TO SEE ACCUMULATING PRECIP ESPECIALLY ON WED INTO WED NIGHT.
ANTICIPATE DRIZZLE AND FOG FOR THURSDAY ESP IN EASTERN AREAS AS
UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO MOVE OFFSHORE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INCHES
EASTWARD INTO THE REGION. THUNDER IS NOT ANTICIPATED ON WED AS THE
MARINE LAYER WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE STABLE AND GUIDANCE IS NOT
SHOWING ANY INSTABILITY AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIMEFRAME.


FRIDAY...

QUICK MOVING RIDGE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR RETURN FLOW AND TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. DRY
WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL AS WE WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS.


WEEKEND...

STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY AND IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL PUSH A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION AND BRING SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL.
STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO THE DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM
AS THE EC SEEMS TO BE OUT OF PHASE WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE
GUIDANCE. THEREFORE TRENDED MORE TOWARDS THE 12Z GFS AND ENSEMBLES
FOR THIS PORTION. NOTE THAT IT APPEARS THAT THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM DOES GET STRETCHED AND IS NOT AS ROBUST AS IT IS
ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK. THE OTHER POINT IS THAT THE RIDGE ON
FRIDAY...HOW STRONG WILL IT GET AND HOW MUCH DRY AIR WILL LINGER AS
THE FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION ON SATURDAY. RIGHT NOW PLAN ON
KEEPING CHC POPS TO THE SOUTH AND LIKELY POPS TO THE NORTH...CLOSER
TO THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY. HOPEFULLY GUIDANCE WILL LINE UP WITHIN
THE COMING DAYS.

TRENDING WITH THE GFS/CMC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON SUNDAY
BUT STILL COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS LINGER EARLY SUN MORNING
ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. CAA BEHIND THE FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPS
BELOW AVERAGE WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF LOWER CATEGORIES THIS EVENING.

INTO TONIGHT...
VFR WILL GRADUALLY DIP TO MVFR WITH POCKETS OF IFR THROUGH THE
EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT. LOW CIGS WITH SOME DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL
START IN NE MA AND SE NH...THEN GRADUALLY MOVE TOWARD THE
SW...REACHING THE CT VALLEY AND S COASTS THE LATEST.
THEN...MVFR/IFR REMAINS IN CONTROL THE REST OF THE NIGHT UNDER
PERSISTENT NELY WINDS.

TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...
GENERALLY MORE OF THE SAME...ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY
MAY IMPROVE TO VFR MID MORNING-MID DAY. SOME SHOWERS /HEAVIER
THAN THE OVERNIGHT DRIZZLE...BUT NOT TOO HEAVY/ ARE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE DAY ACROSS E MA AND RI. ANOTHER ROUND OF
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AND POSSIBLE DRIZZLE EXPECTED TOMORROW NIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE
IN EXACT TIMING.  FIRST MVFR CIGS LIKELY 20-22Z.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE
ON EXACT DETAILS.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN
SHOWERS. PATCHY IFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE ACROSS EAST COASTAL SECTIONS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAY SEE LEFTOVER MVFR
CIG/VSBYS EARLY THU ALONG THE E COAST BUT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
FROM WEST TO EAST ON THURSDAY TO VFR. FRIDAY WILL BE VFR.

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR TO LOCAL
IFR IN A LINE OF SHOWERS MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGHOUT THE
DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE NIGHT.

TONIGHT...
WINDS SHIFT NE ACROSS ALL WATERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH
A FEW GUSTS NEAR 25 KT AND SEAS 4-5 FT MAINLY OVER THE WATERS
SURROUNDING CAPE ANN. ELSEWHERE...LESS OF A RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ALTHOUGH INCREASING RISK FOR DRIZZLE AND FOG
AND LOWER VSBYS.

TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...
NE FLOW CONTINUES. THIS PROLONGED NE FETCH WILL YIELD A GRADUALLY
BUILDING SWELL WHICH COULD APPROACH 5 FT BY LATE TOMORROW NIGHT.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY ONCE AGAIN BE NEEDED FOR THIS RISK.
OTHERWISE...NE WIND GUSTS GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 20 KT. ANOTHER
ROUND OF FOG AND DRIZZLE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS TOMORROW NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE WATERS
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. COMBINED WITH EASTERLY SWELL WILL HELP
BUILD SEAS UP TO 5-7 FEET. SCA WILL BE NEEDED.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE WATERS ON FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR
BOTH SEAS AND WINDS TO RELAX. LINGERING SEAS OF 5 OR 6 FEET WILL KEEP
THE SCA IN PLACE FOR THE OUTER WATERS.

APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY WILL ALLOW FOR RETURN FLOW AND
INCREASE IN GUSTS...CLOSE TO 30 KTS. SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD AHEAD OF
AND BEHIND THE FRONT...NEAR 7 FEET. SCA WILL BE NEEDED.

MAY EXPERIENCE A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 1.5 FEET DURING MIDWEEK BUT
THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE NOT ALL THAT HIGH.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DOODY/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...DOODY/DUNTEN
MARINE...DOODY/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KOKX 291950
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
350 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL THEN AFFECT THE NORTHEAST DURING MID WEEK...
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH ON SATURDAY...FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BKN/OVC HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS.
HIGHER REFLECTIVITIES STILL SEEN ON KOKX RADAR MAINLY OVER
MIDDLESEX COUNTY CT ATTM ARE NOT SHOWERS BUT BIRDS...WHICH SHOULD
RETURN TO OLD LYME TO ROOST TOWARD SUNSET. MEANWHILE...TPHL RADAR
SHOWS REAL SPRINKLES ASSOCIATED WITH WITH A STRENGTHENING MID
LEVEL VORT MAX AHEAD OF AN APCHG UPPER TROUGH STREAMING NE INTO
PHILLY METRO ATTM...AND THESE SHOULD CONTINUE INTO NYC METRO THIS
EVENING. THIS SHORTWAVE SHOULD THEN PRODUCE ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN
OR SPRINKLES MAINLY OVER SRN CT AND LONG ISLAND OVERNIGHT...WHILE
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT NOW STRETCHING FROM SRN NH INTO CENTRAL AND
EASTERN MA CONTINUES SW-WARD...AND PUSHES THROUGH OVERNIGHT...
TURNING LOW LEVEL FLOW TO THE E-NE.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD BE MID AND UPPER 50S INLAND/LONG ISLAND
PINE BARRENS...AND LOWER/MID 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES ALOFT WITH THE SLOW MOVING
UPPER TROUGH ON TUE...AND AHEAD OF A MORE POTENT UPPER LOW APCHG
FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES LATE DAY TUE INTO TUE NIGHT...SHOULD
MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND CHANCES FOR ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS
THROUGH THE PD. E-NE FLOW OF MARITIME AIR WILL ALSO PERSIST...WITH
TEMPS CLOSER TO BUT STILL A COUPLE OF DEG ABOVE AVG.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHRTWV DROPPING INTO NRN MN WILL PASS THRU THE CWA AS A CLOSED H5
LOW ON WED. 12Z MODEL TIMING IS CONSISTENT AMONG THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF.
H85-H5 LAPSE RATES IN THE 5-6C/KM RANGE. DPVA SHOULD BE ABLE TO
OVERCOME THE WEAK CAP AROUND H7. AS A RESULT...WILL FCST SCT SHWRS
WED...ENDING FROM W TO E WED NGT AS THE UPR LOW SLOWLY EXITS. DEPTH
OF CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR AN ISOLD
LIGHTNING FLASH...ESPECIALLY OVER OR INVOF THE WATER WHERE THE WARM
AND MOIST BL WILL YIELD A SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE COLUMN.

SFC RIDGING EXTENDS SWD FROM ERN CANADA THU AND FRI. THIS WILL KEEP
A COOL NE-LY FLOW IN PLACE PRODUCING SEASONAL TEMPS. A MOIST MARINE
LAYER BLW THE DRY MID AND UPR LVLS WITH SUBSIDENCE...SO THE SETUP
WILL NOT BE CONDUCIVE TO ANY CONVECTION OR SIGNIFICANT PCPN. THE
MOST LIKELY SCENARIO WOULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES OR EVEN AREAS OF DZ.
HAVE INCLUDED CHC SPRINKLES WHERE THE GREATEST POOLING OF LLVL
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED ATTM.

MAIN PCPN EVEN IN THE LONG RANGE IS TAKING SHAPE FOR SAT. THE
PRIMARY DRIVER IS A STRONG UPR LOW OVER AK WHICH WILL DROP INTO THE
GREAT LAKES THRU THE PERIOD. STRONG RETURN FLOW FRI NGT PRODUCES
GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA FOR SAT. THE ASSOCIATED CDFNT
AND UPR DYNAMICS THEN PRODUCE A ROUND OF RAIN ON SAT. HAVE INCLUDED
LIKELY POPS IN THE FCST.

DRY ON SUN. A BLEND OF DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE DATA INDICATES
TEMPS WILL NOT GET OUT OF THE 60S. AS THE BROAD UPR LOW/TROF REACHES
THE AREA AROUND MON...THERE IS THE CHC THAT SOMETHING COULD DEVELOP
IN RESPONSE. ECMWF HAD A SFC LOW SPINNING UP...AND THE GFS HAS COLD
POOL TYPE SHWRS. HAVE INCLUDED SCHC POPS AND CLOUDY SKIES AS A
RESULT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS IN THE VICINITY TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT
THEN PUSHES THROUGH TOWARDS DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

VFR. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OUTSIDE OF SEA BREEZE INFLUENCES.
WINDS WITH SEA BREEZES AROUND 8 KT OR LESS.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: CHANCE THAT WINDS ARE OFTEN CLOSER TO 220-190
MAGNETIC.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS COULD BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR MOST OF
THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY SEA BREEZE AT 8 KT OR LESS COULD
POTENTIALLY PUSH THROUGH AS WELL. TIMING WOULD PROBABLY BE IN THE
RANGE OF 20-22Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE LIKELY DOES NOT OCCUR. IF IT
DID...IT WOULD PROBABLY OCCUR BETWEEN 20-22Z. WINDS WOULD THEN SHIFT
TO 150-170 MAG DURING THAT TIME. WIND SPEED 8 KT OR LESS.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUE-TUE NIGHT...VFR LIKELY. CHC -SHRA E-NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.WED...CHC MVFR CIGS/VSBYS/-SHRA. E-NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.THU...CHC MVFR MAINLY AM. E-NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.FRI...VFR. SE-S WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.SAT...RAIN LIKELY. CHC MVFR OR LOWER. SW WINDS AM BECMG WNW PM.
GUSTS 20-25KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH TUE. PERSISTENT/INCREASING E-NE FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN SCA
CONDS TUE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY LATE. TOO EARLY TO ISSUE SCA FOR THIS
TIME FRAME.

THESE CONDS COULD CONTINUE INTO THU...ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN AND
THE ERN SOUND/BAYS. WINDS AND WAVES WILL DECREASE ON FRI...ONLY TO
RAPIDLY BUILD AGAIN ON SAT WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A
CDFNT. WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS ON SUNDAY ATTM.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN EXPECTED THROUGH TUE NIGHT. A FEW TENTHS OF
AN INCH OF RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE WED-WED NGT. UP TO AN INCH OF
RAIN IS POSSIBLE ON SAT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/JMC
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...GOODMAN/JMC
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/JMC






000
FXUS61 KOKX 291950
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
350 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL THEN AFFECT THE NORTHEAST DURING MID WEEK...
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH ON SATURDAY...FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BKN/OVC HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS.
HIGHER REFLECTIVITIES STILL SEEN ON KOKX RADAR MAINLY OVER
MIDDLESEX COUNTY CT ATTM ARE NOT SHOWERS BUT BIRDS...WHICH SHOULD
RETURN TO OLD LYME TO ROOST TOWARD SUNSET. MEANWHILE...TPHL RADAR
SHOWS REAL SPRINKLES ASSOCIATED WITH WITH A STRENGTHENING MID
LEVEL VORT MAX AHEAD OF AN APCHG UPPER TROUGH STREAMING NE INTO
PHILLY METRO ATTM...AND THESE SHOULD CONTINUE INTO NYC METRO THIS
EVENING. THIS SHORTWAVE SHOULD THEN PRODUCE ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN
OR SPRINKLES MAINLY OVER SRN CT AND LONG ISLAND OVERNIGHT...WHILE
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT NOW STRETCHING FROM SRN NH INTO CENTRAL AND
EASTERN MA CONTINUES SW-WARD...AND PUSHES THROUGH OVERNIGHT...
TURNING LOW LEVEL FLOW TO THE E-NE.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD BE MID AND UPPER 50S INLAND/LONG ISLAND
PINE BARRENS...AND LOWER/MID 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES ALOFT WITH THE SLOW MOVING
UPPER TROUGH ON TUE...AND AHEAD OF A MORE POTENT UPPER LOW APCHG
FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES LATE DAY TUE INTO TUE NIGHT...SHOULD
MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND CHANCES FOR ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS
THROUGH THE PD. E-NE FLOW OF MARITIME AIR WILL ALSO PERSIST...WITH
TEMPS CLOSER TO BUT STILL A COUPLE OF DEG ABOVE AVG.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHRTWV DROPPING INTO NRN MN WILL PASS THRU THE CWA AS A CLOSED H5
LOW ON WED. 12Z MODEL TIMING IS CONSISTENT AMONG THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF.
H85-H5 LAPSE RATES IN THE 5-6C/KM RANGE. DPVA SHOULD BE ABLE TO
OVERCOME THE WEAK CAP AROUND H7. AS A RESULT...WILL FCST SCT SHWRS
WED...ENDING FROM W TO E WED NGT AS THE UPR LOW SLOWLY EXITS. DEPTH
OF CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR AN ISOLD
LIGHTNING FLASH...ESPECIALLY OVER OR INVOF THE WATER WHERE THE WARM
AND MOIST BL WILL YIELD A SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE COLUMN.

SFC RIDGING EXTENDS SWD FROM ERN CANADA THU AND FRI. THIS WILL KEEP
A COOL NE-LY FLOW IN PLACE PRODUCING SEASONAL TEMPS. A MOIST MARINE
LAYER BLW THE DRY MID AND UPR LVLS WITH SUBSIDENCE...SO THE SETUP
WILL NOT BE CONDUCIVE TO ANY CONVECTION OR SIGNIFICANT PCPN. THE
MOST LIKELY SCENARIO WOULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES OR EVEN AREAS OF DZ.
HAVE INCLUDED CHC SPRINKLES WHERE THE GREATEST POOLING OF LLVL
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED ATTM.

MAIN PCPN EVEN IN THE LONG RANGE IS TAKING SHAPE FOR SAT. THE
PRIMARY DRIVER IS A STRONG UPR LOW OVER AK WHICH WILL DROP INTO THE
GREAT LAKES THRU THE PERIOD. STRONG RETURN FLOW FRI NGT PRODUCES
GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA FOR SAT. THE ASSOCIATED CDFNT
AND UPR DYNAMICS THEN PRODUCE A ROUND OF RAIN ON SAT. HAVE INCLUDED
LIKELY POPS IN THE FCST.

DRY ON SUN. A BLEND OF DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE DATA INDICATES
TEMPS WILL NOT GET OUT OF THE 60S. AS THE BROAD UPR LOW/TROF REACHES
THE AREA AROUND MON...THERE IS THE CHC THAT SOMETHING COULD DEVELOP
IN RESPONSE. ECMWF HAD A SFC LOW SPINNING UP...AND THE GFS HAS COLD
POOL TYPE SHWRS. HAVE INCLUDED SCHC POPS AND CLOUDY SKIES AS A
RESULT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS IN THE VICINITY TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT
THEN PUSHES THROUGH TOWARDS DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

VFR. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OUTSIDE OF SEA BREEZE INFLUENCES.
WINDS WITH SEA BREEZES AROUND 8 KT OR LESS.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: CHANCE THAT WINDS ARE OFTEN CLOSER TO 220-190
MAGNETIC.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS COULD BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR MOST OF
THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY SEA BREEZE AT 8 KT OR LESS COULD
POTENTIALLY PUSH THROUGH AS WELL. TIMING WOULD PROBABLY BE IN THE
RANGE OF 20-22Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE LIKELY DOES NOT OCCUR. IF IT
DID...IT WOULD PROBABLY OCCUR BETWEEN 20-22Z. WINDS WOULD THEN SHIFT
TO 150-170 MAG DURING THAT TIME. WIND SPEED 8 KT OR LESS.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUE-TUE NIGHT...VFR LIKELY. CHC -SHRA E-NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.WED...CHC MVFR CIGS/VSBYS/-SHRA. E-NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.THU...CHC MVFR MAINLY AM. E-NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.FRI...VFR. SE-S WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.SAT...RAIN LIKELY. CHC MVFR OR LOWER. SW WINDS AM BECMG WNW PM.
GUSTS 20-25KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH TUE. PERSISTENT/INCREASING E-NE FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN SCA
CONDS TUE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY LATE. TOO EARLY TO ISSUE SCA FOR THIS
TIME FRAME.

THESE CONDS COULD CONTINUE INTO THU...ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN AND
THE ERN SOUND/BAYS. WINDS AND WAVES WILL DECREASE ON FRI...ONLY TO
RAPIDLY BUILD AGAIN ON SAT WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A
CDFNT. WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS ON SUNDAY ATTM.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN EXPECTED THROUGH TUE NIGHT. A FEW TENTHS OF
AN INCH OF RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE WED-WED NGT. UP TO AN INCH OF
RAIN IS POSSIBLE ON SAT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/JMC
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...GOODMAN/JMC
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/JMC






000
FXUS61 KOKX 291950
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
350 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL THEN AFFECT THE NORTHEAST DURING MID WEEK...
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH ON SATURDAY...FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BKN/OVC HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS.
HIGHER REFLECTIVITIES STILL SEEN ON KOKX RADAR MAINLY OVER
MIDDLESEX COUNTY CT ATTM ARE NOT SHOWERS BUT BIRDS...WHICH SHOULD
RETURN TO OLD LYME TO ROOST TOWARD SUNSET. MEANWHILE...TPHL RADAR
SHOWS REAL SPRINKLES ASSOCIATED WITH WITH A STRENGTHENING MID
LEVEL VORT MAX AHEAD OF AN APCHG UPPER TROUGH STREAMING NE INTO
PHILLY METRO ATTM...AND THESE SHOULD CONTINUE INTO NYC METRO THIS
EVENING. THIS SHORTWAVE SHOULD THEN PRODUCE ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN
OR SPRINKLES MAINLY OVER SRN CT AND LONG ISLAND OVERNIGHT...WHILE
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT NOW STRETCHING FROM SRN NH INTO CENTRAL AND
EASTERN MA CONTINUES SW-WARD...AND PUSHES THROUGH OVERNIGHT...
TURNING LOW LEVEL FLOW TO THE E-NE.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD BE MID AND UPPER 50S INLAND/LONG ISLAND
PINE BARRENS...AND LOWER/MID 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES ALOFT WITH THE SLOW MOVING
UPPER TROUGH ON TUE...AND AHEAD OF A MORE POTENT UPPER LOW APCHG
FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES LATE DAY TUE INTO TUE NIGHT...SHOULD
MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND CHANCES FOR ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS
THROUGH THE PD. E-NE FLOW OF MARITIME AIR WILL ALSO PERSIST...WITH
TEMPS CLOSER TO BUT STILL A COUPLE OF DEG ABOVE AVG.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHRTWV DROPPING INTO NRN MN WILL PASS THRU THE CWA AS A CLOSED H5
LOW ON WED. 12Z MODEL TIMING IS CONSISTENT AMONG THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF.
H85-H5 LAPSE RATES IN THE 5-6C/KM RANGE. DPVA SHOULD BE ABLE TO
OVERCOME THE WEAK CAP AROUND H7. AS A RESULT...WILL FCST SCT SHWRS
WED...ENDING FROM W TO E WED NGT AS THE UPR LOW SLOWLY EXITS. DEPTH
OF CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR AN ISOLD
LIGHTNING FLASH...ESPECIALLY OVER OR INVOF THE WATER WHERE THE WARM
AND MOIST BL WILL YIELD A SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE COLUMN.

SFC RIDGING EXTENDS SWD FROM ERN CANADA THU AND FRI. THIS WILL KEEP
A COOL NE-LY FLOW IN PLACE PRODUCING SEASONAL TEMPS. A MOIST MARINE
LAYER BLW THE DRY MID AND UPR LVLS WITH SUBSIDENCE...SO THE SETUP
WILL NOT BE CONDUCIVE TO ANY CONVECTION OR SIGNIFICANT PCPN. THE
MOST LIKELY SCENARIO WOULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES OR EVEN AREAS OF DZ.
HAVE INCLUDED CHC SPRINKLES WHERE THE GREATEST POOLING OF LLVL
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED ATTM.

MAIN PCPN EVEN IN THE LONG RANGE IS TAKING SHAPE FOR SAT. THE
PRIMARY DRIVER IS A STRONG UPR LOW OVER AK WHICH WILL DROP INTO THE
GREAT LAKES THRU THE PERIOD. STRONG RETURN FLOW FRI NGT PRODUCES
GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA FOR SAT. THE ASSOCIATED CDFNT
AND UPR DYNAMICS THEN PRODUCE A ROUND OF RAIN ON SAT. HAVE INCLUDED
LIKELY POPS IN THE FCST.

DRY ON SUN. A BLEND OF DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE DATA INDICATES
TEMPS WILL NOT GET OUT OF THE 60S. AS THE BROAD UPR LOW/TROF REACHES
THE AREA AROUND MON...THERE IS THE CHC THAT SOMETHING COULD DEVELOP
IN RESPONSE. ECMWF HAD A SFC LOW SPINNING UP...AND THE GFS HAS COLD
POOL TYPE SHWRS. HAVE INCLUDED SCHC POPS AND CLOUDY SKIES AS A
RESULT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS IN THE VICINITY TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT
THEN PUSHES THROUGH TOWARDS DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

VFR. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OUTSIDE OF SEA BREEZE INFLUENCES.
WINDS WITH SEA BREEZES AROUND 8 KT OR LESS.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: CHANCE THAT WINDS ARE OFTEN CLOSER TO 220-190
MAGNETIC.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS COULD BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR MOST OF
THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY SEA BREEZE AT 8 KT OR LESS COULD
POTENTIALLY PUSH THROUGH AS WELL. TIMING WOULD PROBABLY BE IN THE
RANGE OF 20-22Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE LIKELY DOES NOT OCCUR. IF IT
DID...IT WOULD PROBABLY OCCUR BETWEEN 20-22Z. WINDS WOULD THEN SHIFT
TO 150-170 MAG DURING THAT TIME. WIND SPEED 8 KT OR LESS.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUE-TUE NIGHT...VFR LIKELY. CHC -SHRA E-NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.WED...CHC MVFR CIGS/VSBYS/-SHRA. E-NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.THU...CHC MVFR MAINLY AM. E-NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.FRI...VFR. SE-S WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.SAT...RAIN LIKELY. CHC MVFR OR LOWER. SW WINDS AM BECMG WNW PM.
GUSTS 20-25KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH TUE. PERSISTENT/INCREASING E-NE FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN SCA
CONDS TUE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY LATE. TOO EARLY TO ISSUE SCA FOR THIS
TIME FRAME.

THESE CONDS COULD CONTINUE INTO THU...ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN AND
THE ERN SOUND/BAYS. WINDS AND WAVES WILL DECREASE ON FRI...ONLY TO
RAPIDLY BUILD AGAIN ON SAT WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A
CDFNT. WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS ON SUNDAY ATTM.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN EXPECTED THROUGH TUE NIGHT. A FEW TENTHS OF
AN INCH OF RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE WED-WED NGT. UP TO AN INCH OF
RAIN IS POSSIBLE ON SAT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/JMC
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...GOODMAN/JMC
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/JMC






000
FXUS61 KOKX 291950
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
350 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL THEN AFFECT THE NORTHEAST DURING MID WEEK...
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH ON SATURDAY...FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BKN/OVC HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS.
HIGHER REFLECTIVITIES STILL SEEN ON KOKX RADAR MAINLY OVER
MIDDLESEX COUNTY CT ATTM ARE NOT SHOWERS BUT BIRDS...WHICH SHOULD
RETURN TO OLD LYME TO ROOST TOWARD SUNSET. MEANWHILE...TPHL RADAR
SHOWS REAL SPRINKLES ASSOCIATED WITH WITH A STRENGTHENING MID
LEVEL VORT MAX AHEAD OF AN APCHG UPPER TROUGH STREAMING NE INTO
PHILLY METRO ATTM...AND THESE SHOULD CONTINUE INTO NYC METRO THIS
EVENING. THIS SHORTWAVE SHOULD THEN PRODUCE ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN
OR SPRINKLES MAINLY OVER SRN CT AND LONG ISLAND OVERNIGHT...WHILE
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT NOW STRETCHING FROM SRN NH INTO CENTRAL AND
EASTERN MA CONTINUES SW-WARD...AND PUSHES THROUGH OVERNIGHT...
TURNING LOW LEVEL FLOW TO THE E-NE.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD BE MID AND UPPER 50S INLAND/LONG ISLAND
PINE BARRENS...AND LOWER/MID 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES ALOFT WITH THE SLOW MOVING
UPPER TROUGH ON TUE...AND AHEAD OF A MORE POTENT UPPER LOW APCHG
FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES LATE DAY TUE INTO TUE NIGHT...SHOULD
MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND CHANCES FOR ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS
THROUGH THE PD. E-NE FLOW OF MARITIME AIR WILL ALSO PERSIST...WITH
TEMPS CLOSER TO BUT STILL A COUPLE OF DEG ABOVE AVG.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHRTWV DROPPING INTO NRN MN WILL PASS THRU THE CWA AS A CLOSED H5
LOW ON WED. 12Z MODEL TIMING IS CONSISTENT AMONG THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF.
H85-H5 LAPSE RATES IN THE 5-6C/KM RANGE. DPVA SHOULD BE ABLE TO
OVERCOME THE WEAK CAP AROUND H7. AS A RESULT...WILL FCST SCT SHWRS
WED...ENDING FROM W TO E WED NGT AS THE UPR LOW SLOWLY EXITS. DEPTH
OF CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR AN ISOLD
LIGHTNING FLASH...ESPECIALLY OVER OR INVOF THE WATER WHERE THE WARM
AND MOIST BL WILL YIELD A SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE COLUMN.

SFC RIDGING EXTENDS SWD FROM ERN CANADA THU AND FRI. THIS WILL KEEP
A COOL NE-LY FLOW IN PLACE PRODUCING SEASONAL TEMPS. A MOIST MARINE
LAYER BLW THE DRY MID AND UPR LVLS WITH SUBSIDENCE...SO THE SETUP
WILL NOT BE CONDUCIVE TO ANY CONVECTION OR SIGNIFICANT PCPN. THE
MOST LIKELY SCENARIO WOULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES OR EVEN AREAS OF DZ.
HAVE INCLUDED CHC SPRINKLES WHERE THE GREATEST POOLING OF LLVL
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED ATTM.

MAIN PCPN EVEN IN THE LONG RANGE IS TAKING SHAPE FOR SAT. THE
PRIMARY DRIVER IS A STRONG UPR LOW OVER AK WHICH WILL DROP INTO THE
GREAT LAKES THRU THE PERIOD. STRONG RETURN FLOW FRI NGT PRODUCES
GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA FOR SAT. THE ASSOCIATED CDFNT
AND UPR DYNAMICS THEN PRODUCE A ROUND OF RAIN ON SAT. HAVE INCLUDED
LIKELY POPS IN THE FCST.

DRY ON SUN. A BLEND OF DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE DATA INDICATES
TEMPS WILL NOT GET OUT OF THE 60S. AS THE BROAD UPR LOW/TROF REACHES
THE AREA AROUND MON...THERE IS THE CHC THAT SOMETHING COULD DEVELOP
IN RESPONSE. ECMWF HAD A SFC LOW SPINNING UP...AND THE GFS HAS COLD
POOL TYPE SHWRS. HAVE INCLUDED SCHC POPS AND CLOUDY SKIES AS A
RESULT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS IN THE VICINITY TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT
THEN PUSHES THROUGH TOWARDS DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

VFR. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OUTSIDE OF SEA BREEZE INFLUENCES.
WINDS WITH SEA BREEZES AROUND 8 KT OR LESS.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: CHANCE THAT WINDS ARE OFTEN CLOSER TO 220-190
MAGNETIC.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS COULD BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR MOST OF
THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY SEA BREEZE AT 8 KT OR LESS COULD
POTENTIALLY PUSH THROUGH AS WELL. TIMING WOULD PROBABLY BE IN THE
RANGE OF 20-22Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE LIKELY DOES NOT OCCUR. IF IT
DID...IT WOULD PROBABLY OCCUR BETWEEN 20-22Z. WINDS WOULD THEN SHIFT
TO 150-170 MAG DURING THAT TIME. WIND SPEED 8 KT OR LESS.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUE-TUE NIGHT...VFR LIKELY. CHC -SHRA E-NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.WED...CHC MVFR CIGS/VSBYS/-SHRA. E-NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.THU...CHC MVFR MAINLY AM. E-NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.FRI...VFR. SE-S WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.SAT...RAIN LIKELY. CHC MVFR OR LOWER. SW WINDS AM BECMG WNW PM.
GUSTS 20-25KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH TUE. PERSISTENT/INCREASING E-NE FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN SCA
CONDS TUE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY LATE. TOO EARLY TO ISSUE SCA FOR THIS
TIME FRAME.

THESE CONDS COULD CONTINUE INTO THU...ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN AND
THE ERN SOUND/BAYS. WINDS AND WAVES WILL DECREASE ON FRI...ONLY TO
RAPIDLY BUILD AGAIN ON SAT WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A
CDFNT. WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS ON SUNDAY ATTM.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN EXPECTED THROUGH TUE NIGHT. A FEW TENTHS OF
AN INCH OF RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE WED-WED NGT. UP TO AN INCH OF
RAIN IS POSSIBLE ON SAT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/JMC
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...GOODMAN/JMC
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/JMC






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