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000
FXUS61 KBOX 221451
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
951 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES MODERATE TODAY ON GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. THIS WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY
MONDAY...BUT WITH A PERIOD OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. DRY
AND COOLER TUESDAY...THEN A COASTAL STORM MAY AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT THE TRACK IS STILL
UNCERTAIN. TURNING COLDER INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

950 AM UPDATE...

HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL ALLOW SOMEWHAT
MILDER WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.
NONETHELESS...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL.
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S
IN MOST LOCALES...WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S EXPECTED ACROSS THE CAPE
AND ISLANDS.  HOWEVER...GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL STILL MAKE
IT FEEL RATHER CHILLY.  SHOULD SEE SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS DEVELOP OF
25 TO 35 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ON THE COASTAL PLAIN WITH
INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET.  STRONGEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP TOWARD
EVENING ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.

SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS BEGINNING TO INCREASE AS OF MID
MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...BUT STILL EXPECT PARTIAL
SUNSHINE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.  SHOULD SEE CLOUDS
GRADUALLY THICKEN THOUGH...WITH MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN BY LATE
AFTERNOON.  NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON GIVEN DRY
LOW LEVELS AND BEST FORCING TO OUR WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...

TONIGHT...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION AND WHILE MOISTURE
IN THE COLUMN DEEPENS IT IS STILL SOMEWHAT DRY IN THE LOW LEVELS.
A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY N ZONES WHERE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS GREATER BUT ANY PRECIP WILL BE SPOTTY AND VERY LIGHT.
THE MAIN CONCERN IS FOR ISOLATED POCKETS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN
CENTRAL/W MA AND SW NH IF ANY PRECIP DEVELOPS AS TEMPS EXPECTED TO
COOL TO NEAR FREEZING TONIGHT WHILE TEMPS ALOFT WARM WELL ABOVE
FREEZING. THIS IS NOT A CERTAINTY AS IT COULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY
AND WE WILL HAVE ONLY CHC POPS. TEMPS WILL HOLD NEARLY STEADY IN
THE 30S TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION AND NEAR 30 DEGREES
NW...BUT RISING INTO THE 40S S COAST AS GUSTY SW WINDS CONTINUE.
IN FACT...COULD SEE GUSTS TO 40 MPH ON CAPE/ISLANDS.

SUNDAY...
WEAK SFC RIDGING DEVELOPS ACROSS SNE AS MOISTURE GRADUALLY
DECREASES. EXPECT A DRY AND MILD DAY WITH MORNING CLOUDS GIVING
WAY TO PARTIAL SUNSHINE. USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR
TEMPS WITH MAXES IN THE LOW TO MID 50S...EXCEPT UPPER 40S NW
HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - TURNING WARMER AND WET MONDAY
 - A POSSIBLE MIDWEEK STORM...ESPECIALLY FOR SE NEW ENGLAND
 - LOOKING COLDER INTO LATE WEEK

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
22.00Z MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH ABOUT MID WEEK. THE KEY IS A DEVELOPING
LONGWAVE TROF...WHICH AXIS REMAINS WELL TO THE W ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS YIELDS CONTINUES STACKED SW
FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD...KEEPING THE BULK OF THE COLDER AIR TO
THE W. THE ONE PRIMARY ISSUE STILL WITHIN THE MOST UNCERTAIN
PORTION...FROM WED ONWARD...IS A NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT
OF THE PACIFIC TO THE S OF THE ALLEUTIAN ISLANDS. IT IS THIS
FEATURE WHICH IS STILL GENERATING A WAVE OF LOW PRES ALONG A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS LOW PRES
WOULD THEN PASS SOMEWHERE FROM THE S COAST TO WELL SE OF THE 40/70
BENCHMARK. THE ENVELOP OF POTENTIAL TRACKS START LATE WED INTO WED
NIGHT...AND RANGE FROM NEAR THE CAPE COD CANAL TO WELL OFFSHORE
WITH LITTLE TO NO IMPACT. THE ENSEMBLES ALL FALL IN THIS ENVELOP
WHILE THE GFS IS NEAR THE E EDGE AND THE ECMWF NEAR THE W EDGE.
THEREFORE...FEEL THAT A BLEND OF GUIDANCE WILL CONVEY BOTH THE
UNCERTAINTY AND TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE POTENTIAL SOLUTIONS. THIS
INCLUDES THERMAL PROFILES AS THE ECMWF IS SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER
THAN THE GFS.

DETAILS...

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...
WARM OCCLUSION WILL BE MOVING THROUGH EARLY MON MORNING...THIS IS
ASSOCIATED WITH PWATS BETWEEN 1.0-1.25 INCHES...MODERATE SLY LLJ
AROUND 65 KT AND K-VALUES ABOVE 30. ESSENTIALLY ALL INGREDIENTS FOR
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER RAIN AND CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS. TS WOULD BE ISOLATED...BUT NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. WILL
NEED TO MONITOR FOR THIS HEAVY RAIN THREAT UNTIL IT MOVES THROUGH
BY ABOUT MID MORNING-MID DAY MON. WILL ALSO NEED TO MONITOR FOR
STRONG WINDS THANKS TO PRECIP DRAG OR CONVECTIVE FORCING TO THE
SFC AS THE 65 KT LLJ CORE IS ONLY AT ABOUT H92. NOTE MODEST
INVERSION INITIALLY...BUT SOME MIXING OF THIS MOMENTUM IS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION. SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO THE MON NIGHT HOURS...BUT
WILL BE LIGHTER AND LESS WIDESPREAD AS THE UPPER LVL IMPULSE MOVES
THROUGH AND LOW-MID LVL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE.

TUE AND TUE NIGHT...
BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH PRES MOVES OVER FROM THE SW AND CRESTS ACROSS
THE REGION. MID LVL TEMPS STILL RELATIVELY HIGH...SO EXPECT TEMPS
MAINLY ABOVE NORMAL.

WED AND THU...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR A COASTAL LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVING
NE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK...COULD SEE JUST
SOME RAIN FOR E MA AND RI WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A BIT OF LIGHT
MIXED PRECIP TO THE INTERIOR CT/MA/SW NH...THIS IS THE E EDGE OF
THE ENVELOP REPRESENTED BY THE GFS. THE ECMWF IS MUCH WARMER AND
PASSES NEAR THE CANAL..BUT ALSO IS MORE DYNAMIC WITH MORE
PRECIPITATION. AT THIS TIME...GIVEN THE LACK OF A BLOCKING ARCTIC
HIGH AND SLIGHTLY POSITIVE AO/NAO AS THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER
NOTED...FEEL THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH WARM AIR IN PLACE FOR
RAIN/MIXED PRECIP RATHER THAN SNOW OUTRIGHT EVEN IF THE GFS OR E
TRACKING ENSEMBLES VERIFY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS
HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT WARM AIR COULD COME IN FASTER ALOFT AND THERE
WILL BE SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL FOR THE HOLIDAY.

LATE NEXT WEEK-EARLY WEEKEND...
THU-FRI COULD SEE BRIEF SHOT OF LIGHT PRECIP AS THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE EJECTS ENE...BUT BY THIS POINT DRIER AIR IS ALREADY
MOVING IN BEHIND THE COASTAL LOW. IN ANY CASE EXPECT COOLER AIR
TO BEGIN TO FILTER IN TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

950 AM UPDATE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THE 15Z UPDATE.

TODAY...
VFR. MID LEVEL CIGS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON. INCREASING SW
WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 KT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN.  MAY SEE GUSTS NEAR 35 KNOTS TOWARD EVENING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.

TONIGHT...MAINLY LOW-END VFR CIGS DEVELOPING BUT LOW PROB FOR MVFR
WITH A FEW SHOWERS EXPECTED. ISOLATED POCKETS OF -FZRA POSSIBLE
IN W MA AND SW NH. ANY ICING WILL BE VERY LIGHT. SW WIND GUSTS TO
25-30 KT NEAR THE COAST...POSSIBLY UP TO 35 KT CAPE/ISLANDS.

SUNDAY...VFR CIGS. SW GUSTS TO 25 KT CAPE/ISLANDS IN THE
MORNING...THEN DIMINISHING WIND.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. EXPECT VFR CIGS TONIGHT BUT A
FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. SW GUSTS 25-30 KT DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE TONIGHT
BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY -FZRA. LOW PROB FOR BRIEF MVFR CIGS
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CONDITIONS DETERIORATE MVFR-LIFR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
WITH +RA AND STRONG S-WINDS WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS POSSIBLE...
OTHERWISE LLWS IMPACTS WITH 50 KT S-WINDS 2 KFT AGL. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE BY MIDDAY...BUT COULD SEE CONTINUED SW-WINDS AROUND 25 KTS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WSW-FLOW WITH MAINLY VFR.

WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

AN OFFSHORE STORM SYSTEM COULD BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ESPECIALLY
TO THE SE-TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. WITH STILL COOL AIR OVER WARMER SST...MIXING OVER THE
WATER WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR GUSTS TO 35-40 KT DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WITH STRONGEST WINDS E AND S OF CAPE
COD. WE CONVERTED THE GALE WATCH TO WARNINGS...WITH SCA FOR BOS
HARBOR...NARRAGANSETT BAY AND MASS BAY. SEAS BUILD TO 10 FEET
TONIGHT OVER SOUTHERN WATERS.

SUNDAY...GUSTY SW WINDS 25-30 KT IN THE MORNING WILL BE
DIMINISHING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND DROPPING BELOW 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CONDITIONS DETERIORATE INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH RAIN OVER THE WATERS
AND EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS. VISIBILITY IMPACTS POSSIBLE. WINDS
INCREASING OUT OF THE S. SOUTHERLY WINDS GUST TO AROUND 30
KT...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO ABOUT 10+ FEET ON THE SRN OCEAN WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AT LEAST NEEDED.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WINDS TURNING SW REMAINING BLUSTERY WITH GUSTS EXCEEDING 25 KTS.
WAVES MAINTAINED WITH HEIGHTS OF 8 TO 10 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS.

WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

AN OFFSHORE STORM SYSTEM COULD BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE
WATERS YET DETAILS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ231-232.
     GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ233>235-237-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ230-236-251.
     GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ250-254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...FRANK/KJC/DOODY
MARINE...KJC/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 221451
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
951 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES MODERATE TODAY ON GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. THIS WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY
MONDAY...BUT WITH A PERIOD OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. DRY
AND COOLER TUESDAY...THEN A COASTAL STORM MAY AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT THE TRACK IS STILL
UNCERTAIN. TURNING COLDER INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

950 AM UPDATE...

HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL ALLOW SOMEWHAT
MILDER WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.
NONETHELESS...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL.
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S
IN MOST LOCALES...WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S EXPECTED ACROSS THE CAPE
AND ISLANDS.  HOWEVER...GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL STILL MAKE
IT FEEL RATHER CHILLY.  SHOULD SEE SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS DEVELOP OF
25 TO 35 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ON THE COASTAL PLAIN WITH
INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET.  STRONGEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP TOWARD
EVENING ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.

SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS BEGINNING TO INCREASE AS OF MID
MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...BUT STILL EXPECT PARTIAL
SUNSHINE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.  SHOULD SEE CLOUDS
GRADUALLY THICKEN THOUGH...WITH MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN BY LATE
AFTERNOON.  NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON GIVEN DRY
LOW LEVELS AND BEST FORCING TO OUR WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...

TONIGHT...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION AND WHILE MOISTURE
IN THE COLUMN DEEPENS IT IS STILL SOMEWHAT DRY IN THE LOW LEVELS.
A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY N ZONES WHERE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS GREATER BUT ANY PRECIP WILL BE SPOTTY AND VERY LIGHT.
THE MAIN CONCERN IS FOR ISOLATED POCKETS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN
CENTRAL/W MA AND SW NH IF ANY PRECIP DEVELOPS AS TEMPS EXPECTED TO
COOL TO NEAR FREEZING TONIGHT WHILE TEMPS ALOFT WARM WELL ABOVE
FREEZING. THIS IS NOT A CERTAINTY AS IT COULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY
AND WE WILL HAVE ONLY CHC POPS. TEMPS WILL HOLD NEARLY STEADY IN
THE 30S TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION AND NEAR 30 DEGREES
NW...BUT RISING INTO THE 40S S COAST AS GUSTY SW WINDS CONTINUE.
IN FACT...COULD SEE GUSTS TO 40 MPH ON CAPE/ISLANDS.

SUNDAY...
WEAK SFC RIDGING DEVELOPS ACROSS SNE AS MOISTURE GRADUALLY
DECREASES. EXPECT A DRY AND MILD DAY WITH MORNING CLOUDS GIVING
WAY TO PARTIAL SUNSHINE. USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR
TEMPS WITH MAXES IN THE LOW TO MID 50S...EXCEPT UPPER 40S NW
HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - TURNING WARMER AND WET MONDAY
 - A POSSIBLE MIDWEEK STORM...ESPECIALLY FOR SE NEW ENGLAND
 - LOOKING COLDER INTO LATE WEEK

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
22.00Z MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH ABOUT MID WEEK. THE KEY IS A DEVELOPING
LONGWAVE TROF...WHICH AXIS REMAINS WELL TO THE W ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS YIELDS CONTINUES STACKED SW
FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD...KEEPING THE BULK OF THE COLDER AIR TO
THE W. THE ONE PRIMARY ISSUE STILL WITHIN THE MOST UNCERTAIN
PORTION...FROM WED ONWARD...IS A NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT
OF THE PACIFIC TO THE S OF THE ALLEUTIAN ISLANDS. IT IS THIS
FEATURE WHICH IS STILL GENERATING A WAVE OF LOW PRES ALONG A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS LOW PRES
WOULD THEN PASS SOMEWHERE FROM THE S COAST TO WELL SE OF THE 40/70
BENCHMARK. THE ENVELOP OF POTENTIAL TRACKS START LATE WED INTO WED
NIGHT...AND RANGE FROM NEAR THE CAPE COD CANAL TO WELL OFFSHORE
WITH LITTLE TO NO IMPACT. THE ENSEMBLES ALL FALL IN THIS ENVELOP
WHILE THE GFS IS NEAR THE E EDGE AND THE ECMWF NEAR THE W EDGE.
THEREFORE...FEEL THAT A BLEND OF GUIDANCE WILL CONVEY BOTH THE
UNCERTAINTY AND TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE POTENTIAL SOLUTIONS. THIS
INCLUDES THERMAL PROFILES AS THE ECMWF IS SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER
THAN THE GFS.

DETAILS...

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...
WARM OCCLUSION WILL BE MOVING THROUGH EARLY MON MORNING...THIS IS
ASSOCIATED WITH PWATS BETWEEN 1.0-1.25 INCHES...MODERATE SLY LLJ
AROUND 65 KT AND K-VALUES ABOVE 30. ESSENTIALLY ALL INGREDIENTS FOR
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER RAIN AND CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS. TS WOULD BE ISOLATED...BUT NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. WILL
NEED TO MONITOR FOR THIS HEAVY RAIN THREAT UNTIL IT MOVES THROUGH
BY ABOUT MID MORNING-MID DAY MON. WILL ALSO NEED TO MONITOR FOR
STRONG WINDS THANKS TO PRECIP DRAG OR CONVECTIVE FORCING TO THE
SFC AS THE 65 KT LLJ CORE IS ONLY AT ABOUT H92. NOTE MODEST
INVERSION INITIALLY...BUT SOME MIXING OF THIS MOMENTUM IS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION. SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO THE MON NIGHT HOURS...BUT
WILL BE LIGHTER AND LESS WIDESPREAD AS THE UPPER LVL IMPULSE MOVES
THROUGH AND LOW-MID LVL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE.

TUE AND TUE NIGHT...
BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH PRES MOVES OVER FROM THE SW AND CRESTS ACROSS
THE REGION. MID LVL TEMPS STILL RELATIVELY HIGH...SO EXPECT TEMPS
MAINLY ABOVE NORMAL.

WED AND THU...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR A COASTAL LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVING
NE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK...COULD SEE JUST
SOME RAIN FOR E MA AND RI WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A BIT OF LIGHT
MIXED PRECIP TO THE INTERIOR CT/MA/SW NH...THIS IS THE E EDGE OF
THE ENVELOP REPRESENTED BY THE GFS. THE ECMWF IS MUCH WARMER AND
PASSES NEAR THE CANAL..BUT ALSO IS MORE DYNAMIC WITH MORE
PRECIPITATION. AT THIS TIME...GIVEN THE LACK OF A BLOCKING ARCTIC
HIGH AND SLIGHTLY POSITIVE AO/NAO AS THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER
NOTED...FEEL THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH WARM AIR IN PLACE FOR
RAIN/MIXED PRECIP RATHER THAN SNOW OUTRIGHT EVEN IF THE GFS OR E
TRACKING ENSEMBLES VERIFY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS
HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT WARM AIR COULD COME IN FASTER ALOFT AND THERE
WILL BE SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL FOR THE HOLIDAY.

LATE NEXT WEEK-EARLY WEEKEND...
THU-FRI COULD SEE BRIEF SHOT OF LIGHT PRECIP AS THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE EJECTS ENE...BUT BY THIS POINT DRIER AIR IS ALREADY
MOVING IN BEHIND THE COASTAL LOW. IN ANY CASE EXPECT COOLER AIR
TO BEGIN TO FILTER IN TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

950 AM UPDATE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THE 15Z UPDATE.

TODAY...
VFR. MID LEVEL CIGS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON. INCREASING SW
WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 KT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN.  MAY SEE GUSTS NEAR 35 KNOTS TOWARD EVENING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.

TONIGHT...MAINLY LOW-END VFR CIGS DEVELOPING BUT LOW PROB FOR MVFR
WITH A FEW SHOWERS EXPECTED. ISOLATED POCKETS OF -FZRA POSSIBLE
IN W MA AND SW NH. ANY ICING WILL BE VERY LIGHT. SW WIND GUSTS TO
25-30 KT NEAR THE COAST...POSSIBLY UP TO 35 KT CAPE/ISLANDS.

SUNDAY...VFR CIGS. SW GUSTS TO 25 KT CAPE/ISLANDS IN THE
MORNING...THEN DIMINISHING WIND.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. EXPECT VFR CIGS TONIGHT BUT A
FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. SW GUSTS 25-30 KT DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE TONIGHT
BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY -FZRA. LOW PROB FOR BRIEF MVFR CIGS
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CONDITIONS DETERIORATE MVFR-LIFR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
WITH +RA AND STRONG S-WINDS WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS POSSIBLE...
OTHERWISE LLWS IMPACTS WITH 50 KT S-WINDS 2 KFT AGL. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE BY MIDDAY...BUT COULD SEE CONTINUED SW-WINDS AROUND 25 KTS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WSW-FLOW WITH MAINLY VFR.

WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

AN OFFSHORE STORM SYSTEM COULD BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ESPECIALLY
TO THE SE-TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. WITH STILL COOL AIR OVER WARMER SST...MIXING OVER THE
WATER WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR GUSTS TO 35-40 KT DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WITH STRONGEST WINDS E AND S OF CAPE
COD. WE CONVERTED THE GALE WATCH TO WARNINGS...WITH SCA FOR BOS
HARBOR...NARRAGANSETT BAY AND MASS BAY. SEAS BUILD TO 10 FEET
TONIGHT OVER SOUTHERN WATERS.

SUNDAY...GUSTY SW WINDS 25-30 KT IN THE MORNING WILL BE
DIMINISHING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND DROPPING BELOW 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CONDITIONS DETERIORATE INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH RAIN OVER THE WATERS
AND EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS. VISIBILITY IMPACTS POSSIBLE. WINDS
INCREASING OUT OF THE S. SOUTHERLY WINDS GUST TO AROUND 30
KT...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO ABOUT 10+ FEET ON THE SRN OCEAN WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AT LEAST NEEDED.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WINDS TURNING SW REMAINING BLUSTERY WITH GUSTS EXCEEDING 25 KTS.
WAVES MAINTAINED WITH HEIGHTS OF 8 TO 10 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS.

WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

AN OFFSHORE STORM SYSTEM COULD BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE
WATERS YET DETAILS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ231-232.
     GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ233>235-237-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ230-236-251.
     GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ250-254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...FRANK/KJC/DOODY
MARINE...KJC/DOODY


  [top]

000
FXUS61 KOKX 221447
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
947 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH TONIGHT...
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE AREA TONIGHT AS
WELL. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY...THEN
LIFTS TO OUR NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT
THEN FOLLOWS BEHIND IT MONDAY NIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD
TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY TRACKS NORTHEAST AS IT
STRENGTHENS...REACHING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THURSDAY. A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THEN LINGERS NEAR THE AREA INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS
IN OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. OVERALL THOUGH...THE FORECAST
APPEARS ON TRACK.

A SHORTWAVE RIDGE EXITS LEAVING ZONAL FLOW IN ITS WAKE ALOFT.
WITH NO DISCERNIBLE FORCING EMBEDDED IN THE ZONAL FLOW...IT SHOULD
BE DRY. LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS SIM REFL INDICATE SOME LIGHT
PRECIP IS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY NW ZONES...BUT DO NOT FEEL MUCH
WILL REACH THE GROUND.

THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE.

TEMPS ON TRACK AND SHOULD BE NOT QUITE AS COLD AS YESTERDAY.
HOWEVER...AFTERNOON READINGS WILL STILL RUN AROUND 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES TO THE NORTH TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD BRING
AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND...WHEN COUPLED WITH SOME WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT...A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT RAIN OR
FREEZING RAIN ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA. FOR NOW
IT APPEARS THAT LOWS ACROSS MAINLY THE FAR NORTHERN TIER OF THE
CWA...AS WELL AS THE W 2/3-3/4 OF ORANGE COUNTY SHOULD BE AT OR
JUST BELOW FREEZING. SO THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN
IN THESE AREAS...IF ANY PRECIPITATION FALLS. AT THIS TIME...THE
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION OCCURRING IS FAR TO LOW - LESS THAN
40 PERCENT TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY - OR EVEN A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT HIGHLIGHTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME GLAZING OF ICE FROM
ORANGE COUNTY ON E ACROSS INTERIOR S CT.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES WAS USED...WITH VALUES EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL.

DEEP LAYERED RIDGING TRANSITS THE AREA SUNDAY...KEEPING THINGS
DRY. AS THE RIDGE EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT...DEEPENING
SE SFC-SW FLOW ALOFT WILL ADVECT IN ABUNDANT MOISTURE...AND WITH
DIFFLUENT FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT - THE LIKELIHOOD OF MODERATE
RAINFALL INCREASES BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO
CATEGORICAL SUNDAY NIGHT.

FOR HIGHS SUNDAY A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH A MIX DOWN
FROM 975 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES
WAS USED. HIGHS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. FOR LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES WAS USED...WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE 10-15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. LIKELY WILL SEE RISING TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT.

RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS MONDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE
AND 850 WARM FRONTS FINISH LIFTING TO THE NORTH...WITH ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS COMING TO AN END MONDAY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. REFER TO THE HYDROLOGY SECTION OF THE AFD
FOR FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND ANY IMPACTS.

MONDAY WILL END UP BEING VERY MILD...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
LOWER 60S OVER FAR EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA...TO THE UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70 ACROSS THE NYC METRO. THIS IS 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
AND CONSISTENT WITH A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 950-925 HPA PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A BLEND OF MAV/MET
GUIDANCE. RECORD HIGHS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AS A RESULT. REFER
TO THE CLIMATE SECTION OF THE AFD FOR DETAILS.

FOR LOWS MONDAY NIGHT A BLEND OF MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE
WAS USED WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES. VALUES SHOULD BE AROUND
THE MID TO UPPER 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THERE ARE STILL SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS HANDLING OF
A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO TEXAS
TUESDAY MORNING...AND MORE IMPORTANTLY HOW A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE DIVING DOWN FROM N CENTRAL CANADA INTERACTS WITH THIS
TROUGH IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

THE 00Z ECMWF IS THE STRONGEST WITH THIS NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE...AND HENCE ULTIMATELY DEEPER AND CLOSER TO THE COAST
WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW. THE CMC IS THE SLOWEST WITH THIS
FEATURE AND DOES NOT HAVE MUCH IF ANY PHASING WITH THE FULL
LATITUDE TROUGH...SO ITS LOW IS WEAKER AND FAR ENOUGH OUT TO SEA
THAT THERE WOULD BE LITTLE OR NO IMPACT. THE GFS HAS ABOUT THE
SAME STRENGTH OF THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AS THE CMC...BUT
IS FASTER AND HENCE HAS ENOUGH PHASING WITH THE FULL LATITUDE
TROUGH TO HAVE ITS LOW BE A BIT STRONGER AND CLOSER TO THE COAST
THAN THE CMC. THE 00Z GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS. SO BASED ON THIS...FOR
NOW IT APPEARS THE ECMWF IS AN OUTLIER AND HAVE LEANED MORE
TOWARDS A NON-ECMWF SOLUTION AT THIS TIME.

GIVEN THE GFS TENDENCY TO BE A BIT TO FAR OFFSHORE THIS FAR OUT
IN TIME WITH THESE SORTS OF SYSTEMS...HAVE OPTED FOR A SOLUTION
SIMILAR IN STRENGTH TO THE GFS...BUT SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO THE
COAST...BUT STILL TO THE EAST OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. ADJUSTED
POPS TO BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN 6 HOURLY
PROBABILITY OF 0.05 INCHES OF QPF FROM TUESDAY- THURSDAY...THOUGH
DID GENERALLY CAP AT AROUND 40 PERCENT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.

IT SHOULD BE DRY TUESDAY UNDER SW FLOW ALOFT. A REINFORCING SHOT OF
LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ARRIVES LATE TUESDAY BEHIND A PASSING DRY COLD
FRONT. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP FROM SE TO NW LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE...FOR NOW OFF AND ON IN
NATURE...INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING...THEN TAPER OFF FROM NW TO SE
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN AS LIGHT SNOW
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS AREAS N/W OF NYC...IF IT GETS THAT
FAR INLAND...AND AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS MOST OF S CT...WITH
MAINLY RAIN ELSEWHERE. ALL PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE TO RAIN
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. AS THE LOW DEEPENS AS IT PASSES TO OUR
SE AND E WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ENOUGH LOW LEVEL COLD AIR SHOULD MOVE
IN TO TURN ALL PRECIPITATION OVER TO A LIGHT SNOW. PRECIPITATION
SHOULD TRANSITION BACK OVER TO RAIN THEN RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY AS
THE STORM PULLS AWAY.

ONCE AGAIN...THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL THAT THE STORM STAYS FAR
ENOUGH OUT TO SEE THAT THE AREA RECEIVES NO PRECIPITATION. THERE
IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY THAT A SOLUTION CLOSER TO THE ECMWF
OCCURS...THIS WOULD RESULT IN MORE PRECIPITATION...AND LIKELY MORE
SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA. AT THIS
TIME IT IS TOO EARLY TO SPECULATE ON ANY EXACT IMPACT/EXTENT OF
THIS SYSTEM DUE TO THE LARGE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY ON ITS EXACT
TRACK AND STRENGTH. STAY TUNED.

MODELS ARE STILL DIVERGENT OVER WHAT HAPPENS BEHIND THE
STORM...BUT IT APPEARS MOST LIKELY THAT THERE COULD BE SOME
UNSETTLED WEATHER IN ITS WAKE EITHER DUE TO A LINGERING TROUGH
BEHIND THE LOW...OR ANOTHER WEAK STORM SYSTEM CROSSING THE AREA
LATE IN THE WEEK.

FOR TEMPERATURES TUESDAY-FRIDAY USED A BLEND OF
MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE. BLENDED IN GFS 2-METER
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ECMWF AND GFS
2-METER TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY TO BETTER REFLECT IMPACT OF
EVAPORATIVE COOLING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THE LONG RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH TODAY.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A MID LEVEL DECK MOVES IN LATE
AFTN/EVE. BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE 00Z TO 03Z SUN AT KSWF. LOW
PROB FOR POCKETS OF LGT FZRA AT KSWF OVERNIGHT...TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS ATTM.

SW WINDS INCREASE THIS MORNING TO 10 TO 15 KT WITH G20KT AFTER
14-15Z. GUSTS END BY 00Z SUN.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUN THROUGH WED...
.SUN...VFR.
.SUN NIGHT-MON...BECOMING MVFR/IFR. POSSIBLY SUB-IFR. RA AND FG
WITH LLWS POSSIBLE.
.MON NIGHT-TUE...VFR.
.WED...MAINLY VFR...ALTHOUGH POSSIBLE RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX MAY
IMPACT THE AREA...ESPECIALLY EAST OF NYC METRO.

&&

.MARINE...
MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS
IN OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR SOUTH TODAY WITH THE GRADIENT TIGHTENING
THIS AFTERNOON. SCA CONDITIONS BECOME LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALL
WATERS EXCEPT THE WESTERN SOUND AND NY HARBOR...BUT A GUST OR TWO UP
TO 25 KT FOR THESE ZONES IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THE GRADIENT
RELAXES TOWARDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE RIDGE PIVOTS THROUGH
THE WATERS. WILL CARRY THE SCA THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOR THE EASTERN
SOUND AND LI BAYS...AND THROUGH THE ENTIRE NIGHT FOR THE OCEAN
WATERS WEST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET. EAST OF THIS...SEAS WILL BE SLOWER
TO SUBSIDE ON A SW FLOW. WAVEWATCH LOOKS A LITTLE TOO HIGH FOR SEAS
HERE CONSIDERING THERE SHOULD BE VERY LITTLE SWELL TO FACTOR IN.
HAVE THEREFORE ENDED SCA HERE AT NOON ON SUNDAY.

WINDS PICK UP AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A STRONG LOW MOVES
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A 60KT+ LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTING
THROUGH LATE AT NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING BRINGS THE THREAT OF
GALES. BETTER OVERALL CHANCES WOULD BE ON THE OCEAN WATERS...BUT
THIS COULD EXPAND TO THE OTHER ZONES. SCA CONDITIONS OTHERWISE PREVAIL
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A RELATIVELY
BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. SCA
CONDITIONS THEN BECOME MORE PROBABLE AS WEDNESDAY PROGRESSES AS A
COASTAL STORM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR 3/4 TO 1 1/3 INCHES OF RAIN FROM SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY EVENING...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AT THIS TIME IS EXPECTED OVER THE NYC METRO
AREA...AND LIGHTEST AMOUNTS OVER FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF SE CT AND
THE TWIN FORKS OF LONG ISLAND. WHILE FOR THE MOST PART NO
SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC IMPACT IS EXPECTED...THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. AREAS THAT
EXPERIENCE THIS...IF ANY DO...COULD EXPERIENCE MINOR FLOODING OF
URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY 24 NOVEMBER...

LOCATION........RECORD/YEAR.....FORECAST HIGH

NEWARK..............75/1979...........70
BRIDGEPORT..........63/1979...........64
CENTRAL PARK........73/1979...........68
LAGUARDIA AIRPORT...68/1999...........69
JFK AIRPORT.........63/2001*..........66
ISLIP...............63/2001...........66

* ALSO OCCURRED IN PREVIOUS YEARS

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ330-340-
     345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/PW
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...JC/JMC
MARINE...JC/PW
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT
CLIMATE...











000
FXUS61 KOKX 221447
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
947 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH TONIGHT...
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE AREA TONIGHT AS
WELL. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY...THEN
LIFTS TO OUR NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT
THEN FOLLOWS BEHIND IT MONDAY NIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD
TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY TRACKS NORTHEAST AS IT
STRENGTHENS...REACHING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THURSDAY. A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THEN LINGERS NEAR THE AREA INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS
IN OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. OVERALL THOUGH...THE FORECAST
APPEARS ON TRACK.

A SHORTWAVE RIDGE EXITS LEAVING ZONAL FLOW IN ITS WAKE ALOFT.
WITH NO DISCERNIBLE FORCING EMBEDDED IN THE ZONAL FLOW...IT SHOULD
BE DRY. LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS SIM REFL INDICATE SOME LIGHT
PRECIP IS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY NW ZONES...BUT DO NOT FEEL MUCH
WILL REACH THE GROUND.

THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE.

TEMPS ON TRACK AND SHOULD BE NOT QUITE AS COLD AS YESTERDAY.
HOWEVER...AFTERNOON READINGS WILL STILL RUN AROUND 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES TO THE NORTH TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD BRING
AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND...WHEN COUPLED WITH SOME WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT...A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT RAIN OR
FREEZING RAIN ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA. FOR NOW
IT APPEARS THAT LOWS ACROSS MAINLY THE FAR NORTHERN TIER OF THE
CWA...AS WELL AS THE W 2/3-3/4 OF ORANGE COUNTY SHOULD BE AT OR
JUST BELOW FREEZING. SO THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN
IN THESE AREAS...IF ANY PRECIPITATION FALLS. AT THIS TIME...THE
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION OCCURRING IS FAR TO LOW - LESS THAN
40 PERCENT TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY - OR EVEN A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT HIGHLIGHTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME GLAZING OF ICE FROM
ORANGE COUNTY ON E ACROSS INTERIOR S CT.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES WAS USED...WITH VALUES EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL.

DEEP LAYERED RIDGING TRANSITS THE AREA SUNDAY...KEEPING THINGS
DRY. AS THE RIDGE EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT...DEEPENING
SE SFC-SW FLOW ALOFT WILL ADVECT IN ABUNDANT MOISTURE...AND WITH
DIFFLUENT FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT - THE LIKELIHOOD OF MODERATE
RAINFALL INCREASES BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO
CATEGORICAL SUNDAY NIGHT.

FOR HIGHS SUNDAY A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH A MIX DOWN
FROM 975 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES
WAS USED. HIGHS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. FOR LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES WAS USED...WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE 10-15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. LIKELY WILL SEE RISING TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT.

RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS MONDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE
AND 850 WARM FRONTS FINISH LIFTING TO THE NORTH...WITH ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS COMING TO AN END MONDAY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. REFER TO THE HYDROLOGY SECTION OF THE AFD
FOR FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND ANY IMPACTS.

MONDAY WILL END UP BEING VERY MILD...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
LOWER 60S OVER FAR EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA...TO THE UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70 ACROSS THE NYC METRO. THIS IS 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
AND CONSISTENT WITH A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 950-925 HPA PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A BLEND OF MAV/MET
GUIDANCE. RECORD HIGHS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AS A RESULT. REFER
TO THE CLIMATE SECTION OF THE AFD FOR DETAILS.

FOR LOWS MONDAY NIGHT A BLEND OF MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE
WAS USED WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES. VALUES SHOULD BE AROUND
THE MID TO UPPER 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THERE ARE STILL SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS HANDLING OF
A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO TEXAS
TUESDAY MORNING...AND MORE IMPORTANTLY HOW A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE DIVING DOWN FROM N CENTRAL CANADA INTERACTS WITH THIS
TROUGH IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

THE 00Z ECMWF IS THE STRONGEST WITH THIS NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE...AND HENCE ULTIMATELY DEEPER AND CLOSER TO THE COAST
WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW. THE CMC IS THE SLOWEST WITH THIS
FEATURE AND DOES NOT HAVE MUCH IF ANY PHASING WITH THE FULL
LATITUDE TROUGH...SO ITS LOW IS WEAKER AND FAR ENOUGH OUT TO SEA
THAT THERE WOULD BE LITTLE OR NO IMPACT. THE GFS HAS ABOUT THE
SAME STRENGTH OF THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AS THE CMC...BUT
IS FASTER AND HENCE HAS ENOUGH PHASING WITH THE FULL LATITUDE
TROUGH TO HAVE ITS LOW BE A BIT STRONGER AND CLOSER TO THE COAST
THAN THE CMC. THE 00Z GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS. SO BASED ON THIS...FOR
NOW IT APPEARS THE ECMWF IS AN OUTLIER AND HAVE LEANED MORE
TOWARDS A NON-ECMWF SOLUTION AT THIS TIME.

GIVEN THE GFS TENDENCY TO BE A BIT TO FAR OFFSHORE THIS FAR OUT
IN TIME WITH THESE SORTS OF SYSTEMS...HAVE OPTED FOR A SOLUTION
SIMILAR IN STRENGTH TO THE GFS...BUT SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO THE
COAST...BUT STILL TO THE EAST OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. ADJUSTED
POPS TO BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN 6 HOURLY
PROBABILITY OF 0.05 INCHES OF QPF FROM TUESDAY- THURSDAY...THOUGH
DID GENERALLY CAP AT AROUND 40 PERCENT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.

IT SHOULD BE DRY TUESDAY UNDER SW FLOW ALOFT. A REINFORCING SHOT OF
LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ARRIVES LATE TUESDAY BEHIND A PASSING DRY COLD
FRONT. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP FROM SE TO NW LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE...FOR NOW OFF AND ON IN
NATURE...INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING...THEN TAPER OFF FROM NW TO SE
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN AS LIGHT SNOW
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS AREAS N/W OF NYC...IF IT GETS THAT
FAR INLAND...AND AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS MOST OF S CT...WITH
MAINLY RAIN ELSEWHERE. ALL PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE TO RAIN
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. AS THE LOW DEEPENS AS IT PASSES TO OUR
SE AND E WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ENOUGH LOW LEVEL COLD AIR SHOULD MOVE
IN TO TURN ALL PRECIPITATION OVER TO A LIGHT SNOW. PRECIPITATION
SHOULD TRANSITION BACK OVER TO RAIN THEN RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY AS
THE STORM PULLS AWAY.

ONCE AGAIN...THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL THAT THE STORM STAYS FAR
ENOUGH OUT TO SEE THAT THE AREA RECEIVES NO PRECIPITATION. THERE
IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY THAT A SOLUTION CLOSER TO THE ECMWF
OCCURS...THIS WOULD RESULT IN MORE PRECIPITATION...AND LIKELY MORE
SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA. AT THIS
TIME IT IS TOO EARLY TO SPECULATE ON ANY EXACT IMPACT/EXTENT OF
THIS SYSTEM DUE TO THE LARGE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY ON ITS EXACT
TRACK AND STRENGTH. STAY TUNED.

MODELS ARE STILL DIVERGENT OVER WHAT HAPPENS BEHIND THE
STORM...BUT IT APPEARS MOST LIKELY THAT THERE COULD BE SOME
UNSETTLED WEATHER IN ITS WAKE EITHER DUE TO A LINGERING TROUGH
BEHIND THE LOW...OR ANOTHER WEAK STORM SYSTEM CROSSING THE AREA
LATE IN THE WEEK.

FOR TEMPERATURES TUESDAY-FRIDAY USED A BLEND OF
MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE. BLENDED IN GFS 2-METER
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ECMWF AND GFS
2-METER TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY TO BETTER REFLECT IMPACT OF
EVAPORATIVE COOLING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THE LONG RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH TODAY.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A MID LEVEL DECK MOVES IN LATE
AFTN/EVE. BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE 00Z TO 03Z SUN AT KSWF. LOW
PROB FOR POCKETS OF LGT FZRA AT KSWF OVERNIGHT...TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS ATTM.

SW WINDS INCREASE THIS MORNING TO 10 TO 15 KT WITH G20KT AFTER
14-15Z. GUSTS END BY 00Z SUN.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUN THROUGH WED...
.SUN...VFR.
.SUN NIGHT-MON...BECOMING MVFR/IFR. POSSIBLY SUB-IFR. RA AND FG
WITH LLWS POSSIBLE.
.MON NIGHT-TUE...VFR.
.WED...MAINLY VFR...ALTHOUGH POSSIBLE RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX MAY
IMPACT THE AREA...ESPECIALLY EAST OF NYC METRO.

&&

.MARINE...
MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS
IN OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR SOUTH TODAY WITH THE GRADIENT TIGHTENING
THIS AFTERNOON. SCA CONDITIONS BECOME LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALL
WATERS EXCEPT THE WESTERN SOUND AND NY HARBOR...BUT A GUST OR TWO UP
TO 25 KT FOR THESE ZONES IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THE GRADIENT
RELAXES TOWARDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE RIDGE PIVOTS THROUGH
THE WATERS. WILL CARRY THE SCA THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOR THE EASTERN
SOUND AND LI BAYS...AND THROUGH THE ENTIRE NIGHT FOR THE OCEAN
WATERS WEST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET. EAST OF THIS...SEAS WILL BE SLOWER
TO SUBSIDE ON A SW FLOW. WAVEWATCH LOOKS A LITTLE TOO HIGH FOR SEAS
HERE CONSIDERING THERE SHOULD BE VERY LITTLE SWELL TO FACTOR IN.
HAVE THEREFORE ENDED SCA HERE AT NOON ON SUNDAY.

WINDS PICK UP AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A STRONG LOW MOVES
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A 60KT+ LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTING
THROUGH LATE AT NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING BRINGS THE THREAT OF
GALES. BETTER OVERALL CHANCES WOULD BE ON THE OCEAN WATERS...BUT
THIS COULD EXPAND TO THE OTHER ZONES. SCA CONDITIONS OTHERWISE PREVAIL
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A RELATIVELY
BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. SCA
CONDITIONS THEN BECOME MORE PROBABLE AS WEDNESDAY PROGRESSES AS A
COASTAL STORM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR 3/4 TO 1 1/3 INCHES OF RAIN FROM SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY EVENING...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AT THIS TIME IS EXPECTED OVER THE NYC METRO
AREA...AND LIGHTEST AMOUNTS OVER FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF SE CT AND
THE TWIN FORKS OF LONG ISLAND. WHILE FOR THE MOST PART NO
SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC IMPACT IS EXPECTED...THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. AREAS THAT
EXPERIENCE THIS...IF ANY DO...COULD EXPERIENCE MINOR FLOODING OF
URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY 24 NOVEMBER...

LOCATION........RECORD/YEAR.....FORECAST HIGH

NEWARK..............75/1979...........70
BRIDGEPORT..........63/1979...........64
CENTRAL PARK........73/1979...........68
LAGUARDIA AIRPORT...68/1999...........69
JFK AIRPORT.........63/2001*..........66
ISLIP...............63/2001...........66

* ALSO OCCURRED IN PREVIOUS YEARS

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ330-340-
     345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/PW
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...JC/JMC
MARINE...JC/PW
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT
CLIMATE...











000
FXUS61 KOKX 221447
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
947 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH TONIGHT...
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE AREA TONIGHT AS
WELL. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY...THEN
LIFTS TO OUR NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT
THEN FOLLOWS BEHIND IT MONDAY NIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD
TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY TRACKS NORTHEAST AS IT
STRENGTHENS...REACHING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THURSDAY. A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THEN LINGERS NEAR THE AREA INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS
IN OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. OVERALL THOUGH...THE FORECAST
APPEARS ON TRACK.

A SHORTWAVE RIDGE EXITS LEAVING ZONAL FLOW IN ITS WAKE ALOFT.
WITH NO DISCERNIBLE FORCING EMBEDDED IN THE ZONAL FLOW...IT SHOULD
BE DRY. LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS SIM REFL INDICATE SOME LIGHT
PRECIP IS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY NW ZONES...BUT DO NOT FEEL MUCH
WILL REACH THE GROUND.

THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE.

TEMPS ON TRACK AND SHOULD BE NOT QUITE AS COLD AS YESTERDAY.
HOWEVER...AFTERNOON READINGS WILL STILL RUN AROUND 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES TO THE NORTH TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD BRING
AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND...WHEN COUPLED WITH SOME WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT...A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT RAIN OR
FREEZING RAIN ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA. FOR NOW
IT APPEARS THAT LOWS ACROSS MAINLY THE FAR NORTHERN TIER OF THE
CWA...AS WELL AS THE W 2/3-3/4 OF ORANGE COUNTY SHOULD BE AT OR
JUST BELOW FREEZING. SO THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN
IN THESE AREAS...IF ANY PRECIPITATION FALLS. AT THIS TIME...THE
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION OCCURRING IS FAR TO LOW - LESS THAN
40 PERCENT TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY - OR EVEN A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT HIGHLIGHTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME GLAZING OF ICE FROM
ORANGE COUNTY ON E ACROSS INTERIOR S CT.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES WAS USED...WITH VALUES EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL.

DEEP LAYERED RIDGING TRANSITS THE AREA SUNDAY...KEEPING THINGS
DRY. AS THE RIDGE EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT...DEEPENING
SE SFC-SW FLOW ALOFT WILL ADVECT IN ABUNDANT MOISTURE...AND WITH
DIFFLUENT FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT - THE LIKELIHOOD OF MODERATE
RAINFALL INCREASES BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO
CATEGORICAL SUNDAY NIGHT.

FOR HIGHS SUNDAY A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH A MIX DOWN
FROM 975 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES
WAS USED. HIGHS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. FOR LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES WAS USED...WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE 10-15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. LIKELY WILL SEE RISING TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT.

RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS MONDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE
AND 850 WARM FRONTS FINISH LIFTING TO THE NORTH...WITH ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS COMING TO AN END MONDAY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. REFER TO THE HYDROLOGY SECTION OF THE AFD
FOR FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND ANY IMPACTS.

MONDAY WILL END UP BEING VERY MILD...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
LOWER 60S OVER FAR EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA...TO THE UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70 ACROSS THE NYC METRO. THIS IS 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
AND CONSISTENT WITH A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 950-925 HPA PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A BLEND OF MAV/MET
GUIDANCE. RECORD HIGHS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AS A RESULT. REFER
TO THE CLIMATE SECTION OF THE AFD FOR DETAILS.

FOR LOWS MONDAY NIGHT A BLEND OF MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE
WAS USED WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES. VALUES SHOULD BE AROUND
THE MID TO UPPER 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THERE ARE STILL SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS HANDLING OF
A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO TEXAS
TUESDAY MORNING...AND MORE IMPORTANTLY HOW A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE DIVING DOWN FROM N CENTRAL CANADA INTERACTS WITH THIS
TROUGH IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

THE 00Z ECMWF IS THE STRONGEST WITH THIS NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE...AND HENCE ULTIMATELY DEEPER AND CLOSER TO THE COAST
WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW. THE CMC IS THE SLOWEST WITH THIS
FEATURE AND DOES NOT HAVE MUCH IF ANY PHASING WITH THE FULL
LATITUDE TROUGH...SO ITS LOW IS WEAKER AND FAR ENOUGH OUT TO SEA
THAT THERE WOULD BE LITTLE OR NO IMPACT. THE GFS HAS ABOUT THE
SAME STRENGTH OF THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AS THE CMC...BUT
IS FASTER AND HENCE HAS ENOUGH PHASING WITH THE FULL LATITUDE
TROUGH TO HAVE ITS LOW BE A BIT STRONGER AND CLOSER TO THE COAST
THAN THE CMC. THE 00Z GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS. SO BASED ON THIS...FOR
NOW IT APPEARS THE ECMWF IS AN OUTLIER AND HAVE LEANED MORE
TOWARDS A NON-ECMWF SOLUTION AT THIS TIME.

GIVEN THE GFS TENDENCY TO BE A BIT TO FAR OFFSHORE THIS FAR OUT
IN TIME WITH THESE SORTS OF SYSTEMS...HAVE OPTED FOR A SOLUTION
SIMILAR IN STRENGTH TO THE GFS...BUT SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO THE
COAST...BUT STILL TO THE EAST OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. ADJUSTED
POPS TO BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN 6 HOURLY
PROBABILITY OF 0.05 INCHES OF QPF FROM TUESDAY- THURSDAY...THOUGH
DID GENERALLY CAP AT AROUND 40 PERCENT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.

IT SHOULD BE DRY TUESDAY UNDER SW FLOW ALOFT. A REINFORCING SHOT OF
LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ARRIVES LATE TUESDAY BEHIND A PASSING DRY COLD
FRONT. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP FROM SE TO NW LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE...FOR NOW OFF AND ON IN
NATURE...INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING...THEN TAPER OFF FROM NW TO SE
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN AS LIGHT SNOW
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS AREAS N/W OF NYC...IF IT GETS THAT
FAR INLAND...AND AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS MOST OF S CT...WITH
MAINLY RAIN ELSEWHERE. ALL PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE TO RAIN
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. AS THE LOW DEEPENS AS IT PASSES TO OUR
SE AND E WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ENOUGH LOW LEVEL COLD AIR SHOULD MOVE
IN TO TURN ALL PRECIPITATION OVER TO A LIGHT SNOW. PRECIPITATION
SHOULD TRANSITION BACK OVER TO RAIN THEN RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY AS
THE STORM PULLS AWAY.

ONCE AGAIN...THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL THAT THE STORM STAYS FAR
ENOUGH OUT TO SEE THAT THE AREA RECEIVES NO PRECIPITATION. THERE
IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY THAT A SOLUTION CLOSER TO THE ECMWF
OCCURS...THIS WOULD RESULT IN MORE PRECIPITATION...AND LIKELY MORE
SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA. AT THIS
TIME IT IS TOO EARLY TO SPECULATE ON ANY EXACT IMPACT/EXTENT OF
THIS SYSTEM DUE TO THE LARGE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY ON ITS EXACT
TRACK AND STRENGTH. STAY TUNED.

MODELS ARE STILL DIVERGENT OVER WHAT HAPPENS BEHIND THE
STORM...BUT IT APPEARS MOST LIKELY THAT THERE COULD BE SOME
UNSETTLED WEATHER IN ITS WAKE EITHER DUE TO A LINGERING TROUGH
BEHIND THE LOW...OR ANOTHER WEAK STORM SYSTEM CROSSING THE AREA
LATE IN THE WEEK.

FOR TEMPERATURES TUESDAY-FRIDAY USED A BLEND OF
MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE. BLENDED IN GFS 2-METER
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ECMWF AND GFS
2-METER TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY TO BETTER REFLECT IMPACT OF
EVAPORATIVE COOLING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THE LONG RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH TODAY.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A MID LEVEL DECK MOVES IN LATE
AFTN/EVE. BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE 00Z TO 03Z SUN AT KSWF. LOW
PROB FOR POCKETS OF LGT FZRA AT KSWF OVERNIGHT...TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS ATTM.

SW WINDS INCREASE THIS MORNING TO 10 TO 15 KT WITH G20KT AFTER
14-15Z. GUSTS END BY 00Z SUN.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUN THROUGH WED...
.SUN...VFR.
.SUN NIGHT-MON...BECOMING MVFR/IFR. POSSIBLY SUB-IFR. RA AND FG
WITH LLWS POSSIBLE.
.MON NIGHT-TUE...VFR.
.WED...MAINLY VFR...ALTHOUGH POSSIBLE RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX MAY
IMPACT THE AREA...ESPECIALLY EAST OF NYC METRO.

&&

.MARINE...
MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS
IN OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR SOUTH TODAY WITH THE GRADIENT TIGHTENING
THIS AFTERNOON. SCA CONDITIONS BECOME LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALL
WATERS EXCEPT THE WESTERN SOUND AND NY HARBOR...BUT A GUST OR TWO UP
TO 25 KT FOR THESE ZONES IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THE GRADIENT
RELAXES TOWARDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE RIDGE PIVOTS THROUGH
THE WATERS. WILL CARRY THE SCA THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOR THE EASTERN
SOUND AND LI BAYS...AND THROUGH THE ENTIRE NIGHT FOR THE OCEAN
WATERS WEST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET. EAST OF THIS...SEAS WILL BE SLOWER
TO SUBSIDE ON A SW FLOW. WAVEWATCH LOOKS A LITTLE TOO HIGH FOR SEAS
HERE CONSIDERING THERE SHOULD BE VERY LITTLE SWELL TO FACTOR IN.
HAVE THEREFORE ENDED SCA HERE AT NOON ON SUNDAY.

WINDS PICK UP AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A STRONG LOW MOVES
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A 60KT+ LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTING
THROUGH LATE AT NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING BRINGS THE THREAT OF
GALES. BETTER OVERALL CHANCES WOULD BE ON THE OCEAN WATERS...BUT
THIS COULD EXPAND TO THE OTHER ZONES. SCA CONDITIONS OTHERWISE PREVAIL
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A RELATIVELY
BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. SCA
CONDITIONS THEN BECOME MORE PROBABLE AS WEDNESDAY PROGRESSES AS A
COASTAL STORM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR 3/4 TO 1 1/3 INCHES OF RAIN FROM SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY EVENING...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AT THIS TIME IS EXPECTED OVER THE NYC METRO
AREA...AND LIGHTEST AMOUNTS OVER FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF SE CT AND
THE TWIN FORKS OF LONG ISLAND. WHILE FOR THE MOST PART NO
SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC IMPACT IS EXPECTED...THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. AREAS THAT
EXPERIENCE THIS...IF ANY DO...COULD EXPERIENCE MINOR FLOODING OF
URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY 24 NOVEMBER...

LOCATION........RECORD/YEAR.....FORECAST HIGH

NEWARK..............75/1979...........70
BRIDGEPORT..........63/1979...........64
CENTRAL PARK........73/1979...........68
LAGUARDIA AIRPORT...68/1999...........69
JFK AIRPORT.........63/2001*..........66
ISLIP...............63/2001...........66

* ALSO OCCURRED IN PREVIOUS YEARS

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ330-340-
     345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/PW
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...JC/JMC
MARINE...JC/PW
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT
CLIMATE...











000
FXUS61 KOKX 221447
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
947 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH TONIGHT...
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE AREA TONIGHT AS
WELL. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY...THEN
LIFTS TO OUR NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT
THEN FOLLOWS BEHIND IT MONDAY NIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD
TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY TRACKS NORTHEAST AS IT
STRENGTHENS...REACHING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THURSDAY. A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THEN LINGERS NEAR THE AREA INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS
IN OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. OVERALL THOUGH...THE FORECAST
APPEARS ON TRACK.

A SHORTWAVE RIDGE EXITS LEAVING ZONAL FLOW IN ITS WAKE ALOFT.
WITH NO DISCERNIBLE FORCING EMBEDDED IN THE ZONAL FLOW...IT SHOULD
BE DRY. LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS SIM REFL INDICATE SOME LIGHT
PRECIP IS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY NW ZONES...BUT DO NOT FEEL MUCH
WILL REACH THE GROUND.

THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE.

TEMPS ON TRACK AND SHOULD BE NOT QUITE AS COLD AS YESTERDAY.
HOWEVER...AFTERNOON READINGS WILL STILL RUN AROUND 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES TO THE NORTH TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD BRING
AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND...WHEN COUPLED WITH SOME WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT...A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT RAIN OR
FREEZING RAIN ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA. FOR NOW
IT APPEARS THAT LOWS ACROSS MAINLY THE FAR NORTHERN TIER OF THE
CWA...AS WELL AS THE W 2/3-3/4 OF ORANGE COUNTY SHOULD BE AT OR
JUST BELOW FREEZING. SO THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN
IN THESE AREAS...IF ANY PRECIPITATION FALLS. AT THIS TIME...THE
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION OCCURRING IS FAR TO LOW - LESS THAN
40 PERCENT TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY - OR EVEN A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT HIGHLIGHTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME GLAZING OF ICE FROM
ORANGE COUNTY ON E ACROSS INTERIOR S CT.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES WAS USED...WITH VALUES EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL.

DEEP LAYERED RIDGING TRANSITS THE AREA SUNDAY...KEEPING THINGS
DRY. AS THE RIDGE EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT...DEEPENING
SE SFC-SW FLOW ALOFT WILL ADVECT IN ABUNDANT MOISTURE...AND WITH
DIFFLUENT FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT - THE LIKELIHOOD OF MODERATE
RAINFALL INCREASES BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO
CATEGORICAL SUNDAY NIGHT.

FOR HIGHS SUNDAY A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH A MIX DOWN
FROM 975 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES
WAS USED. HIGHS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. FOR LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES WAS USED...WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE 10-15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. LIKELY WILL SEE RISING TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT.

RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS MONDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE
AND 850 WARM FRONTS FINISH LIFTING TO THE NORTH...WITH ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS COMING TO AN END MONDAY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. REFER TO THE HYDROLOGY SECTION OF THE AFD
FOR FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND ANY IMPACTS.

MONDAY WILL END UP BEING VERY MILD...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
LOWER 60S OVER FAR EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA...TO THE UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70 ACROSS THE NYC METRO. THIS IS 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
AND CONSISTENT WITH A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 950-925 HPA PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A BLEND OF MAV/MET
GUIDANCE. RECORD HIGHS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AS A RESULT. REFER
TO THE CLIMATE SECTION OF THE AFD FOR DETAILS.

FOR LOWS MONDAY NIGHT A BLEND OF MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE
WAS USED WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES. VALUES SHOULD BE AROUND
THE MID TO UPPER 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THERE ARE STILL SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS HANDLING OF
A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO TEXAS
TUESDAY MORNING...AND MORE IMPORTANTLY HOW A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE DIVING DOWN FROM N CENTRAL CANADA INTERACTS WITH THIS
TROUGH IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

THE 00Z ECMWF IS THE STRONGEST WITH THIS NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE...AND HENCE ULTIMATELY DEEPER AND CLOSER TO THE COAST
WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW. THE CMC IS THE SLOWEST WITH THIS
FEATURE AND DOES NOT HAVE MUCH IF ANY PHASING WITH THE FULL
LATITUDE TROUGH...SO ITS LOW IS WEAKER AND FAR ENOUGH OUT TO SEA
THAT THERE WOULD BE LITTLE OR NO IMPACT. THE GFS HAS ABOUT THE
SAME STRENGTH OF THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AS THE CMC...BUT
IS FASTER AND HENCE HAS ENOUGH PHASING WITH THE FULL LATITUDE
TROUGH TO HAVE ITS LOW BE A BIT STRONGER AND CLOSER TO THE COAST
THAN THE CMC. THE 00Z GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS. SO BASED ON THIS...FOR
NOW IT APPEARS THE ECMWF IS AN OUTLIER AND HAVE LEANED MORE
TOWARDS A NON-ECMWF SOLUTION AT THIS TIME.

GIVEN THE GFS TENDENCY TO BE A BIT TO FAR OFFSHORE THIS FAR OUT
IN TIME WITH THESE SORTS OF SYSTEMS...HAVE OPTED FOR A SOLUTION
SIMILAR IN STRENGTH TO THE GFS...BUT SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO THE
COAST...BUT STILL TO THE EAST OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. ADJUSTED
POPS TO BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN 6 HOURLY
PROBABILITY OF 0.05 INCHES OF QPF FROM TUESDAY- THURSDAY...THOUGH
DID GENERALLY CAP AT AROUND 40 PERCENT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.

IT SHOULD BE DRY TUESDAY UNDER SW FLOW ALOFT. A REINFORCING SHOT OF
LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ARRIVES LATE TUESDAY BEHIND A PASSING DRY COLD
FRONT. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP FROM SE TO NW LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE...FOR NOW OFF AND ON IN
NATURE...INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING...THEN TAPER OFF FROM NW TO SE
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN AS LIGHT SNOW
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS AREAS N/W OF NYC...IF IT GETS THAT
FAR INLAND...AND AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS MOST OF S CT...WITH
MAINLY RAIN ELSEWHERE. ALL PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE TO RAIN
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. AS THE LOW DEEPENS AS IT PASSES TO OUR
SE AND E WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ENOUGH LOW LEVEL COLD AIR SHOULD MOVE
IN TO TURN ALL PRECIPITATION OVER TO A LIGHT SNOW. PRECIPITATION
SHOULD TRANSITION BACK OVER TO RAIN THEN RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY AS
THE STORM PULLS AWAY.

ONCE AGAIN...THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL THAT THE STORM STAYS FAR
ENOUGH OUT TO SEE THAT THE AREA RECEIVES NO PRECIPITATION. THERE
IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY THAT A SOLUTION CLOSER TO THE ECMWF
OCCURS...THIS WOULD RESULT IN MORE PRECIPITATION...AND LIKELY MORE
SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA. AT THIS
TIME IT IS TOO EARLY TO SPECULATE ON ANY EXACT IMPACT/EXTENT OF
THIS SYSTEM DUE TO THE LARGE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY ON ITS EXACT
TRACK AND STRENGTH. STAY TUNED.

MODELS ARE STILL DIVERGENT OVER WHAT HAPPENS BEHIND THE
STORM...BUT IT APPEARS MOST LIKELY THAT THERE COULD BE SOME
UNSETTLED WEATHER IN ITS WAKE EITHER DUE TO A LINGERING TROUGH
BEHIND THE LOW...OR ANOTHER WEAK STORM SYSTEM CROSSING THE AREA
LATE IN THE WEEK.

FOR TEMPERATURES TUESDAY-FRIDAY USED A BLEND OF
MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE. BLENDED IN GFS 2-METER
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ECMWF AND GFS
2-METER TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY TO BETTER REFLECT IMPACT OF
EVAPORATIVE COOLING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THE LONG RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH TODAY.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A MID LEVEL DECK MOVES IN LATE
AFTN/EVE. BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE 00Z TO 03Z SUN AT KSWF. LOW
PROB FOR POCKETS OF LGT FZRA AT KSWF OVERNIGHT...TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS ATTM.

SW WINDS INCREASE THIS MORNING TO 10 TO 15 KT WITH G20KT AFTER
14-15Z. GUSTS END BY 00Z SUN.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUN THROUGH WED...
.SUN...VFR.
.SUN NIGHT-MON...BECOMING MVFR/IFR. POSSIBLY SUB-IFR. RA AND FG
WITH LLWS POSSIBLE.
.MON NIGHT-TUE...VFR.
.WED...MAINLY VFR...ALTHOUGH POSSIBLE RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX MAY
IMPACT THE AREA...ESPECIALLY EAST OF NYC METRO.

&&

.MARINE...
MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS
IN OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR SOUTH TODAY WITH THE GRADIENT TIGHTENING
THIS AFTERNOON. SCA CONDITIONS BECOME LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALL
WATERS EXCEPT THE WESTERN SOUND AND NY HARBOR...BUT A GUST OR TWO UP
TO 25 KT FOR THESE ZONES IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THE GRADIENT
RELAXES TOWARDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE RIDGE PIVOTS THROUGH
THE WATERS. WILL CARRY THE SCA THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOR THE EASTERN
SOUND AND LI BAYS...AND THROUGH THE ENTIRE NIGHT FOR THE OCEAN
WATERS WEST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET. EAST OF THIS...SEAS WILL BE SLOWER
TO SUBSIDE ON A SW FLOW. WAVEWATCH LOOKS A LITTLE TOO HIGH FOR SEAS
HERE CONSIDERING THERE SHOULD BE VERY LITTLE SWELL TO FACTOR IN.
HAVE THEREFORE ENDED SCA HERE AT NOON ON SUNDAY.

WINDS PICK UP AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A STRONG LOW MOVES
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A 60KT+ LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTING
THROUGH LATE AT NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING BRINGS THE THREAT OF
GALES. BETTER OVERALL CHANCES WOULD BE ON THE OCEAN WATERS...BUT
THIS COULD EXPAND TO THE OTHER ZONES. SCA CONDITIONS OTHERWISE PREVAIL
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A RELATIVELY
BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. SCA
CONDITIONS THEN BECOME MORE PROBABLE AS WEDNESDAY PROGRESSES AS A
COASTAL STORM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR 3/4 TO 1 1/3 INCHES OF RAIN FROM SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY EVENING...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AT THIS TIME IS EXPECTED OVER THE NYC METRO
AREA...AND LIGHTEST AMOUNTS OVER FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF SE CT AND
THE TWIN FORKS OF LONG ISLAND. WHILE FOR THE MOST PART NO
SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC IMPACT IS EXPECTED...THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. AREAS THAT
EXPERIENCE THIS...IF ANY DO...COULD EXPERIENCE MINOR FLOODING OF
URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY 24 NOVEMBER...

LOCATION........RECORD/YEAR.....FORECAST HIGH

NEWARK..............75/1979...........70
BRIDGEPORT..........63/1979...........64
CENTRAL PARK........73/1979...........68
LAGUARDIA AIRPORT...68/1999...........69
JFK AIRPORT.........63/2001*..........66
ISLIP...............63/2001...........66

* ALSO OCCURRED IN PREVIOUS YEARS

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ330-340-
     345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/PW
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...JC/JMC
MARINE...JC/PW
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT
CLIMATE...










  [top]

000
FXUS61 KALY 221427
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
927 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION
THIS MORNING. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH
AND WEST OF ALBANY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING MILDER AIR TO THE
REGION FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH SOME RAINFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM EST SATURDAY
TO 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY...SCHOHARIE
VALLEY...SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA
REGION...

AS OF 927 AM EST...IN RESPONSE TO RAPID WARM ADVECTION ALOFT...MID
LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE CONTINUED TO INCREASE THIS MORNING ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME
BREAKS ACROSS THE CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY. THERE MAY
ACTUAL EVEN BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOME SUNSHINE FOR A GOOD PART OF
THE AREA BEHIND THIS INITIAL BAND OF CLOUDS FOR LATE THIS
MORNING...BUT MORE THICKER AND LOWER CLOUDS CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN
NY AND NORTHWESTERN PA WILL BE MOVING TOWARDS OUR AREA FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

IN ADDITION...A PAIR OF MID LEVEL IMPULSES...ONE CURRENTLY ACROSS
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...AND ANOTHER TO THE NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES...WILL PROVIDE ENHANCED DYNAMICAL LIFT AS WELL BY LATE
AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY REGION...WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND AREAS MAINLY W OF THE HUDSON RIVER FROM ALBANY
NORTH BETWEEN 3 AND 5 PM.

FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THAT PRECIP MAY START AS A
SNOW/SLEET MIX ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...AND A SLEET/RAIN MIX IN
LOWER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER...AS SOME WET BULB COOLING
DEVELOPS...THE CHANCES FOR FREEZING RAIN WILL INCREASE AROUND AND
ESP AFTER SUNSET FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY REGION AND AREAS NORTHWARD.
ALSO...DESPITE TEMPS POSSIBLY RISING ABOVE FREEZING TODAY...THE
GROUND WILL REMAIN QUITE COLD...SO IT SHOULD BE FAIRLY EASY FOR
LIGHT ICING TO DEVELOP ON UNTREATED SURFACES.

FURTHER S AND E...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE...THE THREAT FOR
PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH SUNSET FOR AREAS E OF THE
HUDSON RIVER.

TEMPS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND MID TO UPPER 30S FOR VALLEY AREAS. A BRISK
SOUTH WIND IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
FROM ALBANY SOUTH LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WHICH
WILL MAKE CONDITIONS FEEL EVEN COLDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...PRECIPITATION SHOULD EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE FOR AREAS
NEAR AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. SOME LIGHT PRECIP MAY
ALSO OCCASIONALLY REACH AREAS SOUTH OF I-90...INTO THE SE
CATSKILLS...TACONICS AND BERKSHIRES...AND PERHAPS AS FAR S AS THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST
THAT HYDROMETEORS REACHING THE SFC SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF
LIQUID RAIN /PERHAPS A FEW SLEET PELLETS/...BUT FOR MANY AREAS N
AND W OF ALBANY...SFC TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
FREEZING THROUGH MIDNIGHT...ALLOWING FOR THE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
POTENTIAL. AGAIN...WITH THE GROUND SO COLD...UNTREATED SURFACES
COULD BECOME RATHER SLIPPERY. THE AREA WHERE THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT REPRESENTS THE REGION WITH THE GREATEST
PROBABILITY OF FREEZING RAIN. WILL HAVE TO WATCH RADAR TRENDS AND
MESONET SFC OBS CLOSELY...AS SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN MAY
OCCUR EVEN OUTSIDE THE CURRENT ADVISORY AREAS...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN VT AND WESTERN MA. MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE REACHED
BETWEEN 10 PM AND 1 AM EST...BEFORE GRADUALLY RISING THEREAFTER.

SUNDAY...THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD PASS NORTH AND EAST OF
THE REGION BY EARLY/MID MORNING...WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL FORCING
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...QUITE A BIT OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION IN THE FORM OF LOW
CLOUDS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. HAVE SIDED
ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS...WITH MAINLY 40S
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH SOME LOWER 50S ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A STRONGER MID LEVEL IMPULSE...CURRENTLY
APPROACHING THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...IS EXPECTED TO DAMPEN AS IT
TRACKS RAPIDLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. STRONG LOW AND MID
LEVEL SOUTH WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IMPULSE WILL ALLOW A BURST
OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION LATE AT
NIGHT. BEFORE THIS OCCURS...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS IN THE
EVENING MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO BRIEFLY DIP INTO THE MID AND UPPER
30S...BEFORE RISING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE RAPIDLY INCREASING
CLOUDS. MODERATE RAIN IS THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...THROUGH DAYBREAK
MONDAY. RAINFALL AMTS OF ONE TO TWO THIRDS OF AN INCH ARE
EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. IN ADDITION...GIVEN
THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL JET TRAVERSING THE REGION LATE AT
NIGHT...WITH THE 00Z/NAM12 SUGGESTING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST H850 WINDS
OF 60-70 KT OVER SW NEW ENGLAND AND SE NY...SOME RATHER WINDY
CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
TACONICS...SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS AND BERKSHIRES...AND POSSIBLY THE
CATSKILLS...WITH SOME WIND GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 40-45 MPH.

MONDAY...RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF RATHER QUICKLY EARLY IN THE MORNING
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. THEREAFTER...IT APPEARS THAT LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF FORCING WILL BE PRESENT IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH
AFTERNOON...AS THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAIN WELL
TO OUR WEST. SO...ALTHOUGH HAVE INDICATED SOME SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS...MUCH OF MONDAY AFTERNOON MAY ACTUALLY REMAIN RAIN FREE.
HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST IN THE FORM OF LOW
CLOUDS IN MOST AREAS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD STILL BECOME RATHER MILD BY
LATE AFTERNOON...GENERALLY REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN
MOST VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 50S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. SHOULD ANY
BREAKS OF SUN DEVELOP...MUCH WARMER MAX TEMPS COULD OCCUR.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS MAINLY DRY AND ENDS MAINLY DRY. IT IS
THE MIDDLE PERIOD OF THE FORECAST PERIOD SURROUNDING THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY WHICH MAKES FOR A TRICKY FORECAST. THE ECMWF
HAS TRACKED FARTHER NORTH AND WEST WITH THE COASTAL LOW THE LAST
COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS AS SURFACE WAVE GETS CAPTURED BY UPPER TROUGH
THE GFS AND GGEM ARE MUCH FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE SURFACE
WAVE THUS THE REASON FOR ONLY GOING WITH CHANCE POPS THIS FAR OUT.
IN ADDITION TO BEING FARTHER OUT TO SEA...BOTH THE GFS AND GGEM HAVE
A MUCH WEAKER SYSTEM. AT 12Z THURSDAY ECMWF HAS A 985 MB LOW ALONG
DOWNEAST MAINE WHEREAS THE GFS HAS A 1004 MB LOW SOUTHEAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA AND THE GGEM IS EVEN WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH A
1007 MB LOW ESSENTIALLY OUT TO SEA. THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WITH ONLY THE ECMWF SHOWING AN
IMPACT ON FA WILL ONLY MENTION A CHANCE OF A STORM POTENTIALLY
IMPACTING THE FA IN THE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY TIME FRAME IN THE
HWO.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD...A COOL DOWN IS IN STORE WITH TEMPS
FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S
NORTHWEST TO LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST...LOWERS 30S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 40S
SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY...UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 40 SOUTHEAST
ON THURSDAY AND UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S ON FRIDAY. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 40S SOUTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT...UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO MID 30S SOUTHEAST TUESDAY
NIGHT....20S TO LOWER 30S WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
UPPER 20S THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT
MIXED PCPN TO THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WITH
MAINLY RAIN AND SLEET EXCEPT FOR FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET AT KGFL
AND KPSF.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS DURING MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z
SUNDAY. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE MOVING IN BETWEEN 13Z-15Z/SAT.
THERE COULD BE SOME SPOTTY SNOW SHOWERS AROUND FROM KALB NORTH AND
EAST AFTER 20Z/SAT...AND THESE WERE ADDRESSED WITH A VCSH FOR
KALB/KGFL/KPSF FOR NOW. THIS EVENING THE PCPN WILL BEGIN AND WHILE
CIGS WL REMAIN VFR...MVFR VSBYS ARE EXPECTED AT KGFL/KALB AND
KPSF. ONCE AGAIN THE PCPN TYPE WL BE MAINLY -RAPL EXCEPT FOR
-FZRAPL AT KGFL AND KPSF.

EXPECT THE WINDS TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 8-12
KTS LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH SOME GUSTS CLOSE
TO 20 KTS AT KALB. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 4 TO 10 KTS
THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL IMPACT THE REGION...MAINLY FOR AREAS
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
BASIN AVERAGE LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF PRECIP WILL BE A QUARTER OF AN
INCH OR LESS...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS. ALONG WITH A MILDER AIR MASS...A MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP
EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY
BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR SO...LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR NYZ032-033-038>042-047-048-082-083.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/KL
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL








000
FXUS61 KALY 221427
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
927 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION
THIS MORNING. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH
AND WEST OF ALBANY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING MILDER AIR TO THE
REGION FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH SOME RAINFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM EST SATURDAY
TO 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY...SCHOHARIE
VALLEY...SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA
REGION...

AS OF 927 AM EST...IN RESPONSE TO RAPID WARM ADVECTION ALOFT...MID
LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE CONTINUED TO INCREASE THIS MORNING ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME
BREAKS ACROSS THE CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY. THERE MAY
ACTUAL EVEN BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOME SUNSHINE FOR A GOOD PART OF
THE AREA BEHIND THIS INITIAL BAND OF CLOUDS FOR LATE THIS
MORNING...BUT MORE THICKER AND LOWER CLOUDS CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN
NY AND NORTHWESTERN PA WILL BE MOVING TOWARDS OUR AREA FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

IN ADDITION...A PAIR OF MID LEVEL IMPULSES...ONE CURRENTLY ACROSS
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...AND ANOTHER TO THE NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES...WILL PROVIDE ENHANCED DYNAMICAL LIFT AS WELL BY LATE
AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY REGION...WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND AREAS MAINLY W OF THE HUDSON RIVER FROM ALBANY
NORTH BETWEEN 3 AND 5 PM.

FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THAT PRECIP MAY START AS A
SNOW/SLEET MIX ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...AND A SLEET/RAIN MIX IN
LOWER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER...AS SOME WET BULB COOLING
DEVELOPS...THE CHANCES FOR FREEZING RAIN WILL INCREASE AROUND AND
ESP AFTER SUNSET FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY REGION AND AREAS NORTHWARD.
ALSO...DESPITE TEMPS POSSIBLY RISING ABOVE FREEZING TODAY...THE
GROUND WILL REMAIN QUITE COLD...SO IT SHOULD BE FAIRLY EASY FOR
LIGHT ICING TO DEVELOP ON UNTREATED SURFACES.

FURTHER S AND E...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE...THE THREAT FOR
PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH SUNSET FOR AREAS E OF THE
HUDSON RIVER.

TEMPS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND MID TO UPPER 30S FOR VALLEY AREAS. A BRISK
SOUTH WIND IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
FROM ALBANY SOUTH LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WHICH
WILL MAKE CONDITIONS FEEL EVEN COLDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...PRECIPITATION SHOULD EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE FOR AREAS
NEAR AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. SOME LIGHT PRECIP MAY
ALSO OCCASIONALLY REACH AREAS SOUTH OF I-90...INTO THE SE
CATSKILLS...TACONICS AND BERKSHIRES...AND PERHAPS AS FAR S AS THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST
THAT HYDROMETEORS REACHING THE SFC SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF
LIQUID RAIN /PERHAPS A FEW SLEET PELLETS/...BUT FOR MANY AREAS N
AND W OF ALBANY...SFC TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
FREEZING THROUGH MIDNIGHT...ALLOWING FOR THE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
POTENTIAL. AGAIN...WITH THE GROUND SO COLD...UNTREATED SURFACES
COULD BECOME RATHER SLIPPERY. THE AREA WHERE THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT REPRESENTS THE REGION WITH THE GREATEST
PROBABILITY OF FREEZING RAIN. WILL HAVE TO WATCH RADAR TRENDS AND
MESONET SFC OBS CLOSELY...AS SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN MAY
OCCUR EVEN OUTSIDE THE CURRENT ADVISORY AREAS...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN VT AND WESTERN MA. MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE REACHED
BETWEEN 10 PM AND 1 AM EST...BEFORE GRADUALLY RISING THEREAFTER.

SUNDAY...THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD PASS NORTH AND EAST OF
THE REGION BY EARLY/MID MORNING...WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL FORCING
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...QUITE A BIT OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION IN THE FORM OF LOW
CLOUDS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. HAVE SIDED
ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS...WITH MAINLY 40S
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH SOME LOWER 50S ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A STRONGER MID LEVEL IMPULSE...CURRENTLY
APPROACHING THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...IS EXPECTED TO DAMPEN AS IT
TRACKS RAPIDLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. STRONG LOW AND MID
LEVEL SOUTH WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IMPULSE WILL ALLOW A BURST
OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION LATE AT
NIGHT. BEFORE THIS OCCURS...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS IN THE
EVENING MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO BRIEFLY DIP INTO THE MID AND UPPER
30S...BEFORE RISING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE RAPIDLY INCREASING
CLOUDS. MODERATE RAIN IS THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...THROUGH DAYBREAK
MONDAY. RAINFALL AMTS OF ONE TO TWO THIRDS OF AN INCH ARE
EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. IN ADDITION...GIVEN
THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL JET TRAVERSING THE REGION LATE AT
NIGHT...WITH THE 00Z/NAM12 SUGGESTING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST H850 WINDS
OF 60-70 KT OVER SW NEW ENGLAND AND SE NY...SOME RATHER WINDY
CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
TACONICS...SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS AND BERKSHIRES...AND POSSIBLY THE
CATSKILLS...WITH SOME WIND GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 40-45 MPH.

MONDAY...RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF RATHER QUICKLY EARLY IN THE MORNING
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. THEREAFTER...IT APPEARS THAT LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF FORCING WILL BE PRESENT IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH
AFTERNOON...AS THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAIN WELL
TO OUR WEST. SO...ALTHOUGH HAVE INDICATED SOME SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS...MUCH OF MONDAY AFTERNOON MAY ACTUALLY REMAIN RAIN FREE.
HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST IN THE FORM OF LOW
CLOUDS IN MOST AREAS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD STILL BECOME RATHER MILD BY
LATE AFTERNOON...GENERALLY REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN
MOST VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 50S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. SHOULD ANY
BREAKS OF SUN DEVELOP...MUCH WARMER MAX TEMPS COULD OCCUR.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS MAINLY DRY AND ENDS MAINLY DRY. IT IS
THE MIDDLE PERIOD OF THE FORECAST PERIOD SURROUNDING THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY WHICH MAKES FOR A TRICKY FORECAST. THE ECMWF
HAS TRACKED FARTHER NORTH AND WEST WITH THE COASTAL LOW THE LAST
COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS AS SURFACE WAVE GETS CAPTURED BY UPPER TROUGH
THE GFS AND GGEM ARE MUCH FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE SURFACE
WAVE THUS THE REASON FOR ONLY GOING WITH CHANCE POPS THIS FAR OUT.
IN ADDITION TO BEING FARTHER OUT TO SEA...BOTH THE GFS AND GGEM HAVE
A MUCH WEAKER SYSTEM. AT 12Z THURSDAY ECMWF HAS A 985 MB LOW ALONG
DOWNEAST MAINE WHEREAS THE GFS HAS A 1004 MB LOW SOUTHEAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA AND THE GGEM IS EVEN WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH A
1007 MB LOW ESSENTIALLY OUT TO SEA. THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WITH ONLY THE ECMWF SHOWING AN
IMPACT ON FA WILL ONLY MENTION A CHANCE OF A STORM POTENTIALLY
IMPACTING THE FA IN THE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY TIME FRAME IN THE
HWO.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD...A COOL DOWN IS IN STORE WITH TEMPS
FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S
NORTHWEST TO LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST...LOWERS 30S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 40S
SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY...UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 40 SOUTHEAST
ON THURSDAY AND UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S ON FRIDAY. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 40S SOUTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT...UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO MID 30S SOUTHEAST TUESDAY
NIGHT....20S TO LOWER 30S WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
UPPER 20S THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT
MIXED PCPN TO THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WITH
MAINLY RAIN AND SLEET EXCEPT FOR FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET AT KGFL
AND KPSF.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS DURING MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z
SUNDAY. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE MOVING IN BETWEEN 13Z-15Z/SAT.
THERE COULD BE SOME SPOTTY SNOW SHOWERS AROUND FROM KALB NORTH AND
EAST AFTER 20Z/SAT...AND THESE WERE ADDRESSED WITH A VCSH FOR
KALB/KGFL/KPSF FOR NOW. THIS EVENING THE PCPN WILL BEGIN AND WHILE
CIGS WL REMAIN VFR...MVFR VSBYS ARE EXPECTED AT KGFL/KALB AND
KPSF. ONCE AGAIN THE PCPN TYPE WL BE MAINLY -RAPL EXCEPT FOR
-FZRAPL AT KGFL AND KPSF.

EXPECT THE WINDS TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 8-12
KTS LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH SOME GUSTS CLOSE
TO 20 KTS AT KALB. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 4 TO 10 KTS
THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL IMPACT THE REGION...MAINLY FOR AREAS
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
BASIN AVERAGE LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF PRECIP WILL BE A QUARTER OF AN
INCH OR LESS...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS. ALONG WITH A MILDER AIR MASS...A MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP
EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY
BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR SO...LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR NYZ032-033-038>042-047-048-082-083.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/KL
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL








000
FXUS61 KALY 221427
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
927 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION
THIS MORNING. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH
AND WEST OF ALBANY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING MILDER AIR TO THE
REGION FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH SOME RAINFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM EST SATURDAY
TO 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY...SCHOHARIE
VALLEY...SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA
REGION...

AS OF 927 AM EST...IN RESPONSE TO RAPID WARM ADVECTION ALOFT...MID
LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE CONTINUED TO INCREASE THIS MORNING ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME
BREAKS ACROSS THE CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY. THERE MAY
ACTUAL EVEN BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOME SUNSHINE FOR A GOOD PART OF
THE AREA BEHIND THIS INITIAL BAND OF CLOUDS FOR LATE THIS
MORNING...BUT MORE THICKER AND LOWER CLOUDS CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN
NY AND NORTHWESTERN PA WILL BE MOVING TOWARDS OUR AREA FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

IN ADDITION...A PAIR OF MID LEVEL IMPULSES...ONE CURRENTLY ACROSS
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...AND ANOTHER TO THE NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES...WILL PROVIDE ENHANCED DYNAMICAL LIFT AS WELL BY LATE
AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY REGION...WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND AREAS MAINLY W OF THE HUDSON RIVER FROM ALBANY
NORTH BETWEEN 3 AND 5 PM.

FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THAT PRECIP MAY START AS A
SNOW/SLEET MIX ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...AND A SLEET/RAIN MIX IN
LOWER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER...AS SOME WET BULB COOLING
DEVELOPS...THE CHANCES FOR FREEZING RAIN WILL INCREASE AROUND AND
ESP AFTER SUNSET FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY REGION AND AREAS NORTHWARD.
ALSO...DESPITE TEMPS POSSIBLY RISING ABOVE FREEZING TODAY...THE
GROUND WILL REMAIN QUITE COLD...SO IT SHOULD BE FAIRLY EASY FOR
LIGHT ICING TO DEVELOP ON UNTREATED SURFACES.

FURTHER S AND E...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE...THE THREAT FOR
PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH SUNSET FOR AREAS E OF THE
HUDSON RIVER.

TEMPS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND MID TO UPPER 30S FOR VALLEY AREAS. A BRISK
SOUTH WIND IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
FROM ALBANY SOUTH LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WHICH
WILL MAKE CONDITIONS FEEL EVEN COLDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...PRECIPITATION SHOULD EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE FOR AREAS
NEAR AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. SOME LIGHT PRECIP MAY
ALSO OCCASIONALLY REACH AREAS SOUTH OF I-90...INTO THE SE
CATSKILLS...TACONICS AND BERKSHIRES...AND PERHAPS AS FAR S AS THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST
THAT HYDROMETEORS REACHING THE SFC SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF
LIQUID RAIN /PERHAPS A FEW SLEET PELLETS/...BUT FOR MANY AREAS N
AND W OF ALBANY...SFC TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
FREEZING THROUGH MIDNIGHT...ALLOWING FOR THE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
POTENTIAL. AGAIN...WITH THE GROUND SO COLD...UNTREATED SURFACES
COULD BECOME RATHER SLIPPERY. THE AREA WHERE THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT REPRESENTS THE REGION WITH THE GREATEST
PROBABILITY OF FREEZING RAIN. WILL HAVE TO WATCH RADAR TRENDS AND
MESONET SFC OBS CLOSELY...AS SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN MAY
OCCUR EVEN OUTSIDE THE CURRENT ADVISORY AREAS...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN VT AND WESTERN MA. MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE REACHED
BETWEEN 10 PM AND 1 AM EST...BEFORE GRADUALLY RISING THEREAFTER.

SUNDAY...THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD PASS NORTH AND EAST OF
THE REGION BY EARLY/MID MORNING...WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL FORCING
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...QUITE A BIT OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION IN THE FORM OF LOW
CLOUDS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. HAVE SIDED
ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS...WITH MAINLY 40S
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH SOME LOWER 50S ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A STRONGER MID LEVEL IMPULSE...CURRENTLY
APPROACHING THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...IS EXPECTED TO DAMPEN AS IT
TRACKS RAPIDLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. STRONG LOW AND MID
LEVEL SOUTH WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IMPULSE WILL ALLOW A BURST
OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION LATE AT
NIGHT. BEFORE THIS OCCURS...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS IN THE
EVENING MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO BRIEFLY DIP INTO THE MID AND UPPER
30S...BEFORE RISING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE RAPIDLY INCREASING
CLOUDS. MODERATE RAIN IS THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...THROUGH DAYBREAK
MONDAY. RAINFALL AMTS OF ONE TO TWO THIRDS OF AN INCH ARE
EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. IN ADDITION...GIVEN
THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL JET TRAVERSING THE REGION LATE AT
NIGHT...WITH THE 00Z/NAM12 SUGGESTING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST H850 WINDS
OF 60-70 KT OVER SW NEW ENGLAND AND SE NY...SOME RATHER WINDY
CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
TACONICS...SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS AND BERKSHIRES...AND POSSIBLY THE
CATSKILLS...WITH SOME WIND GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 40-45 MPH.

MONDAY...RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF RATHER QUICKLY EARLY IN THE MORNING
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. THEREAFTER...IT APPEARS THAT LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF FORCING WILL BE PRESENT IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH
AFTERNOON...AS THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAIN WELL
TO OUR WEST. SO...ALTHOUGH HAVE INDICATED SOME SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS...MUCH OF MONDAY AFTERNOON MAY ACTUALLY REMAIN RAIN FREE.
HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST IN THE FORM OF LOW
CLOUDS IN MOST AREAS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD STILL BECOME RATHER MILD BY
LATE AFTERNOON...GENERALLY REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN
MOST VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 50S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. SHOULD ANY
BREAKS OF SUN DEVELOP...MUCH WARMER MAX TEMPS COULD OCCUR.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS MAINLY DRY AND ENDS MAINLY DRY. IT IS
THE MIDDLE PERIOD OF THE FORECAST PERIOD SURROUNDING THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY WHICH MAKES FOR A TRICKY FORECAST. THE ECMWF
HAS TRACKED FARTHER NORTH AND WEST WITH THE COASTAL LOW THE LAST
COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS AS SURFACE WAVE GETS CAPTURED BY UPPER TROUGH
THE GFS AND GGEM ARE MUCH FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE SURFACE
WAVE THUS THE REASON FOR ONLY GOING WITH CHANCE POPS THIS FAR OUT.
IN ADDITION TO BEING FARTHER OUT TO SEA...BOTH THE GFS AND GGEM HAVE
A MUCH WEAKER SYSTEM. AT 12Z THURSDAY ECMWF HAS A 985 MB LOW ALONG
DOWNEAST MAINE WHEREAS THE GFS HAS A 1004 MB LOW SOUTHEAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA AND THE GGEM IS EVEN WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH A
1007 MB LOW ESSENTIALLY OUT TO SEA. THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WITH ONLY THE ECMWF SHOWING AN
IMPACT ON FA WILL ONLY MENTION A CHANCE OF A STORM POTENTIALLY
IMPACTING THE FA IN THE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY TIME FRAME IN THE
HWO.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD...A COOL DOWN IS IN STORE WITH TEMPS
FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S
NORTHWEST TO LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST...LOWERS 30S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 40S
SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY...UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 40 SOUTHEAST
ON THURSDAY AND UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S ON FRIDAY. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 40S SOUTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT...UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO MID 30S SOUTHEAST TUESDAY
NIGHT....20S TO LOWER 30S WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
UPPER 20S THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT
MIXED PCPN TO THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WITH
MAINLY RAIN AND SLEET EXCEPT FOR FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET AT KGFL
AND KPSF.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS DURING MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z
SUNDAY. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE MOVING IN BETWEEN 13Z-15Z/SAT.
THERE COULD BE SOME SPOTTY SNOW SHOWERS AROUND FROM KALB NORTH AND
EAST AFTER 20Z/SAT...AND THESE WERE ADDRESSED WITH A VCSH FOR
KALB/KGFL/KPSF FOR NOW. THIS EVENING THE PCPN WILL BEGIN AND WHILE
CIGS WL REMAIN VFR...MVFR VSBYS ARE EXPECTED AT KGFL/KALB AND
KPSF. ONCE AGAIN THE PCPN TYPE WL BE MAINLY -RAPL EXCEPT FOR
-FZRAPL AT KGFL AND KPSF.

EXPECT THE WINDS TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 8-12
KTS LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH SOME GUSTS CLOSE
TO 20 KTS AT KALB. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 4 TO 10 KTS
THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL IMPACT THE REGION...MAINLY FOR AREAS
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
BASIN AVERAGE LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF PRECIP WILL BE A QUARTER OF AN
INCH OR LESS...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS. ALONG WITH A MILDER AIR MASS...A MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP
EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY
BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR SO...LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR NYZ032-033-038>042-047-048-082-083.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/KL
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL








000
FXUS61 KALY 221427
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
927 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION
THIS MORNING. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH
AND WEST OF ALBANY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING MILDER AIR TO THE
REGION FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH SOME RAINFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM EST SATURDAY
TO 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY...SCHOHARIE
VALLEY...SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA
REGION...

AS OF 927 AM EST...IN RESPONSE TO RAPID WARM ADVECTION ALOFT...MID
LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE CONTINUED TO INCREASE THIS MORNING ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME
BREAKS ACROSS THE CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY. THERE MAY
ACTUAL EVEN BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOME SUNSHINE FOR A GOOD PART OF
THE AREA BEHIND THIS INITIAL BAND OF CLOUDS FOR LATE THIS
MORNING...BUT MORE THICKER AND LOWER CLOUDS CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN
NY AND NORTHWESTERN PA WILL BE MOVING TOWARDS OUR AREA FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

IN ADDITION...A PAIR OF MID LEVEL IMPULSES...ONE CURRENTLY ACROSS
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...AND ANOTHER TO THE NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES...WILL PROVIDE ENHANCED DYNAMICAL LIFT AS WELL BY LATE
AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY REGION...WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND AREAS MAINLY W OF THE HUDSON RIVER FROM ALBANY
NORTH BETWEEN 3 AND 5 PM.

FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THAT PRECIP MAY START AS A
SNOW/SLEET MIX ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...AND A SLEET/RAIN MIX IN
LOWER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER...AS SOME WET BULB COOLING
DEVELOPS...THE CHANCES FOR FREEZING RAIN WILL INCREASE AROUND AND
ESP AFTER SUNSET FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY REGION AND AREAS NORTHWARD.
ALSO...DESPITE TEMPS POSSIBLY RISING ABOVE FREEZING TODAY...THE
GROUND WILL REMAIN QUITE COLD...SO IT SHOULD BE FAIRLY EASY FOR
LIGHT ICING TO DEVELOP ON UNTREATED SURFACES.

FURTHER S AND E...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE...THE THREAT FOR
PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH SUNSET FOR AREAS E OF THE
HUDSON RIVER.

TEMPS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND MID TO UPPER 30S FOR VALLEY AREAS. A BRISK
SOUTH WIND IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
FROM ALBANY SOUTH LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WHICH
WILL MAKE CONDITIONS FEEL EVEN COLDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...PRECIPITATION SHOULD EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE FOR AREAS
NEAR AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. SOME LIGHT PRECIP MAY
ALSO OCCASIONALLY REACH AREAS SOUTH OF I-90...INTO THE SE
CATSKILLS...TACONICS AND BERKSHIRES...AND PERHAPS AS FAR S AS THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST
THAT HYDROMETEORS REACHING THE SFC SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF
LIQUID RAIN /PERHAPS A FEW SLEET PELLETS/...BUT FOR MANY AREAS N
AND W OF ALBANY...SFC TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
FREEZING THROUGH MIDNIGHT...ALLOWING FOR THE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
POTENTIAL. AGAIN...WITH THE GROUND SO COLD...UNTREATED SURFACES
COULD BECOME RATHER SLIPPERY. THE AREA WHERE THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT REPRESENTS THE REGION WITH THE GREATEST
PROBABILITY OF FREEZING RAIN. WILL HAVE TO WATCH RADAR TRENDS AND
MESONET SFC OBS CLOSELY...AS SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN MAY
OCCUR EVEN OUTSIDE THE CURRENT ADVISORY AREAS...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN VT AND WESTERN MA. MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE REACHED
BETWEEN 10 PM AND 1 AM EST...BEFORE GRADUALLY RISING THEREAFTER.

SUNDAY...THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD PASS NORTH AND EAST OF
THE REGION BY EARLY/MID MORNING...WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL FORCING
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...QUITE A BIT OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION IN THE FORM OF LOW
CLOUDS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. HAVE SIDED
ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS...WITH MAINLY 40S
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH SOME LOWER 50S ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A STRONGER MID LEVEL IMPULSE...CURRENTLY
APPROACHING THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...IS EXPECTED TO DAMPEN AS IT
TRACKS RAPIDLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. STRONG LOW AND MID
LEVEL SOUTH WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IMPULSE WILL ALLOW A BURST
OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION LATE AT
NIGHT. BEFORE THIS OCCURS...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS IN THE
EVENING MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO BRIEFLY DIP INTO THE MID AND UPPER
30S...BEFORE RISING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE RAPIDLY INCREASING
CLOUDS. MODERATE RAIN IS THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...THROUGH DAYBREAK
MONDAY. RAINFALL AMTS OF ONE TO TWO THIRDS OF AN INCH ARE
EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. IN ADDITION...GIVEN
THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL JET TRAVERSING THE REGION LATE AT
NIGHT...WITH THE 00Z/NAM12 SUGGESTING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST H850 WINDS
OF 60-70 KT OVER SW NEW ENGLAND AND SE NY...SOME RATHER WINDY
CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
TACONICS...SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS AND BERKSHIRES...AND POSSIBLY THE
CATSKILLS...WITH SOME WIND GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 40-45 MPH.

MONDAY...RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF RATHER QUICKLY EARLY IN THE MORNING
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. THEREAFTER...IT APPEARS THAT LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF FORCING WILL BE PRESENT IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH
AFTERNOON...AS THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAIN WELL
TO OUR WEST. SO...ALTHOUGH HAVE INDICATED SOME SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS...MUCH OF MONDAY AFTERNOON MAY ACTUALLY REMAIN RAIN FREE.
HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST IN THE FORM OF LOW
CLOUDS IN MOST AREAS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD STILL BECOME RATHER MILD BY
LATE AFTERNOON...GENERALLY REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN
MOST VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 50S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. SHOULD ANY
BREAKS OF SUN DEVELOP...MUCH WARMER MAX TEMPS COULD OCCUR.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS MAINLY DRY AND ENDS MAINLY DRY. IT IS
THE MIDDLE PERIOD OF THE FORECAST PERIOD SURROUNDING THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY WHICH MAKES FOR A TRICKY FORECAST. THE ECMWF
HAS TRACKED FARTHER NORTH AND WEST WITH THE COASTAL LOW THE LAST
COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS AS SURFACE WAVE GETS CAPTURED BY UPPER TROUGH
THE GFS AND GGEM ARE MUCH FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE SURFACE
WAVE THUS THE REASON FOR ONLY GOING WITH CHANCE POPS THIS FAR OUT.
IN ADDITION TO BEING FARTHER OUT TO SEA...BOTH THE GFS AND GGEM HAVE
A MUCH WEAKER SYSTEM. AT 12Z THURSDAY ECMWF HAS A 985 MB LOW ALONG
DOWNEAST MAINE WHEREAS THE GFS HAS A 1004 MB LOW SOUTHEAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA AND THE GGEM IS EVEN WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH A
1007 MB LOW ESSENTIALLY OUT TO SEA. THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WITH ONLY THE ECMWF SHOWING AN
IMPACT ON FA WILL ONLY MENTION A CHANCE OF A STORM POTENTIALLY
IMPACTING THE FA IN THE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY TIME FRAME IN THE
HWO.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD...A COOL DOWN IS IN STORE WITH TEMPS
FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S
NORTHWEST TO LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST...LOWERS 30S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 40S
SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY...UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 40 SOUTHEAST
ON THURSDAY AND UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S ON FRIDAY. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 40S SOUTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT...UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO MID 30S SOUTHEAST TUESDAY
NIGHT....20S TO LOWER 30S WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
UPPER 20S THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT
MIXED PCPN TO THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WITH
MAINLY RAIN AND SLEET EXCEPT FOR FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET AT KGFL
AND KPSF.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS DURING MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z
SUNDAY. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE MOVING IN BETWEEN 13Z-15Z/SAT.
THERE COULD BE SOME SPOTTY SNOW SHOWERS AROUND FROM KALB NORTH AND
EAST AFTER 20Z/SAT...AND THESE WERE ADDRESSED WITH A VCSH FOR
KALB/KGFL/KPSF FOR NOW. THIS EVENING THE PCPN WILL BEGIN AND WHILE
CIGS WL REMAIN VFR...MVFR VSBYS ARE EXPECTED AT KGFL/KALB AND
KPSF. ONCE AGAIN THE PCPN TYPE WL BE MAINLY -RAPL EXCEPT FOR
-FZRAPL AT KGFL AND KPSF.

EXPECT THE WINDS TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 8-12
KTS LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH SOME GUSTS CLOSE
TO 20 KTS AT KALB. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 4 TO 10 KTS
THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL IMPACT THE REGION...MAINLY FOR AREAS
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
BASIN AVERAGE LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF PRECIP WILL BE A QUARTER OF AN
INCH OR LESS...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS. ALONG WITH A MILDER AIR MASS...A MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP
EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY
BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR SO...LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR NYZ032-033-038>042-047-048-082-083.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/KL
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL








000
FXUS61 KBOX 221210
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
710 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES MODERATE TODAY ON GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. THIS WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY
MONDAY...BUT WITH A PERIOD OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. DRY
AND COOLER TUESDAY...THEN A COASTAL STORM MAY AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT THE TRACK IS STILL
UNCERTAIN. TURNING COLDER INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
7 AM UPDATE...
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS THIS MORNING AS THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK
FOR THE MOST PART. MAIN ISSUE IS TO EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS LATE
THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRES OFF THE MID ATLC COAST WILL RESULT IN DECENT WARM
ADVECTION TO DEVELOP TODAY. SUNSHINE WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING
MID/HIGH CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES...BUT NO PRECIP EXPECTED AS LOW LEVELS REMAIN QUITE DRY.
AFTER A COLD START TO THE DAY TEMPS WILL RECOVER NICELY BUT STILL
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. MAXES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S WITH MID 40S OVER THE CAPE/ISLANDS. LOW LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL LEAD TO
GUSTY SW WINDS DEVELOPING WITH GUSTS TO 25-35 MPH...MAINLY IN THE
COASTAL PLAIN. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ON THE CAPE/ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION AND WHILE MOISTURE
IN THE COLUMN DEEPENS IT IS STILL SOMEWHAT DRY IN THE LOW LEVELS.
A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY N ZONES WHERE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS GREATER BUT ANY PRECIP WILL BE SPOTTY AND VERY LIGHT.
THE MAIN CONCERN IS FOR ISOLATED POCKETS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN
CENTRAL/W MA AND SW NH IF ANY PRECIP DEVELOPS AS TEMPS EXPECTED TO
COOL TO NEAR FREEZING TONIGHT WHILE TEMPS ALOFT WARM WELL ABOVE
FREEZING. THIS IS NOT A CERTAINTY AS IT COULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY
AND WE WILL HAVE ONLY CHC POPS. TEMPS WILL HOLD NEARLY STEADY IN
THE 30S TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION AND NEAR 30 DEGREES
NW...BUT RISING INTO THE 40S S COAST AS GUSTY SW WINDS CONTINUE.
IN FACT...COULD SEE GUSTS TO 40 MPH ON CAPE/ISLANDS.

SUNDAY...
WEAK SFC RIDGING DEVELOPS ACROSS SNE AS MOISTURE GRADUALLY
DECREASES. EXPECT A DRY AND MILD DAY WITH MORNING CLOUDS GIVING
WAY TO PARTIAL SUNSHINE. USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR
TEMPS WITH MAXES IN THE LOW TO MID 50S...EXCEPT UPPER 40S NW
HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - TURNING WARMER AND WET MONDAY
 - A POSSIBLE MIDWEEK STORM...ESPECIALLY FOR SE NEW ENGLAND
 - LOOKING COLDER INTO LATE WEEK

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
22.00Z MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH ABOUT MID WEEK. THE KEY IS A DEVELOPING
LONGWAVE TROF...WHICH AXIS REMAINS WELL TO THE W ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS YIELDS CONTINUES STACKED SW
FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD...KEEPING THE BULK OF THE COLDER AIR TO
THE W. THE ONE PRIMARY ISSUE STILL WITHIN THE MOST UNCERTAIN
PORTION...FROM WED ONWARD...IS A NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT
OF THE PACIFIC TO THE S OF THE ALLEUTIAN ISLANDS. IT IS THIS
FEATURE WHICH IS STILL GENERATING A WAVE OF LOW PRES ALONG A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS LOW PRES
WOULD THEN PASS SOMEWHERE FROM THE S COAST TO WELL SE OF THE 40/70
BENCHMARK. THE ENVELOP OF POTENTIAL TRACKS START LATE WED INTO WED
NIGHT...AND RANGE FROM NEAR THE CAPE COD CANAL TO WELL OFFSHORE
WITH LITTLE TO NO IMPACT. THE ENSEMBLES ALL FALL IN THIS ENVELOP
WHILE THE GFS IS NEAR THE E EDGE AND THE ECMWF NEAR THE W EDGE.
THEREFORE...FEEL THAT A BLEND OF GUIDANCE WILL CONVEY BOTH THE
UNCERTAINTY AND TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE POTENTIAL SOLUTIONS. THIS
INCLUDES THERMAL PROFILES AS THE ECMWF IS SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER
THAN THE GFS.

DETAILS...

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...
WARM OCCLUSION WILL BE MOVING THROUGH EARLY MON MORNING...THIS IS
ASSOCIATED WITH PWATS BETWEEN 1.0-1.25 INCHES...MODERATE SLY LLJ
AROUND 65 KT AND K-VALUES ABOVE 30. ESSENTIALLY ALL INGREDIENTS FOR
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER RAIN AND CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS. TS WOULD BE ISOLATED...BUT NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. WILL
NEED TO MONITOR FOR THIS HEAVY RAIN THREAT UNTIL IT MOVES THROUGH
BY ABOUT MID MORNING-MID DAY MON. WILL ALSO NEED TO MONITOR FOR
STRONG WINDS THANKS TO PRECIP DRAG OR CONVECTIVE FORCING TO THE
SFC AS THE 65 KT LLJ CORE IS ONLY AT ABOUT H92. NOTE MODEST
INVERSION INITIALLY...BUT SOME MIXING OF THIS MOMENTUM IS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION. SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO THE MON NIGHT HOURS...BUT
WILL BE LIGHTER AND LESS WIDESPREAD AS THE UPPER LVL IMPULSE MOVES
THROUGH AND LOW-MID LVL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE.

TUE AND TUE NIGHT...
BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH PRES MOVES OVER FROM THE SW AND CRESTS ACROSS
THE REGION. MID LVL TEMPS STILL RELATIVELY HIGH...SO EXPECT TEMPS
MAINLY ABOVE NORMAL.

WED AND THU...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR A COASTAL LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVING
NE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK...COULD SEE JUST
SOME RAIN FOR E MA AND RI WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A BIT OF LIGHT
MIXED PRECIP TO THE INTERIOR CT/MA/SW NH...THIS IS THE E EDGE OF
THE ENVELOP REPRESENTED BY THE GFS. THE ECMWF IS MUCH WARMER AND
PASSES NEAR THE CANAL..BUT ALSO IS MORE DYNAMIC WITH MORE
PRECIPITATION. AT THIS TIME...GIVEN THE LACK OF A BLOCKING ARCTIC
HIGH AND SLIGHTLY POSITIVE AO/NAO AS THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER
NOTED...FEEL THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH WARM AIR IN PLACE FOR
RAIN/MIXED PRECIP RATHER THAN SNOW OUTRIGHT EVEN IF THE GFS OR E
TRACKING ENSEMBLES VERIFY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS
HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT WARM AIR COULD COME IN FASTER ALOFT AND THERE
WILL BE SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL FOR THE HOLIDAY.

LATE NEXT WEEK-EARLY WEEKEND...
THU-FRI COULD SEE BRIEF SHOT OF LIGHT PRECIP AS THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE EJECTS ENE...BUT BY THIS POINT DRIER AIR IS ALREADY
MOVING IN BEHIND THE COASTAL LOW. IN ANY CASE EXPECT COOLER AIR
TO BEGIN TO FILTER IN TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THE 12Z UPDATE.

TODAY...
VFR. MID LEVEL CIGS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON. INCREASING SW
WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 KT IN THE COASTAL
PLAIN.

TONIGHT...MAINLY LOW-END VFR CIGS DEVELOPING BUT LOW PROB FOR MVFR
WITH A FEW SHOWERS EXPECTED. ISOLATED POCKETS OF -FZRA POSSIBLE
IN W MA AND SW NH. ANY ICING WILL BE VERY LIGHT. SW WIND GUSTS TO
25-30 KT NEAR THE COAST...POSSIBLY UP TO 35 KT CAPE/ISLANDS.

SUNDAY...VFR CIGS. SW GUSTS TO 25 KT CAPE/ISLANDS IN THE
MORNING...THEN DIMINISHING WIND.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. EXPECT VFR CIGS TONIGHT BUT A
FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. SW GUSTS 25-30 KT DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE TONIGHT
BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY -FZRA. LOW PROB FOR BRIEF MVFR CIGS
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CONDITIONS DETERIORATE MVFR-LIFR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
WITH +RA AND STRONG S-WINDS WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS POSSIBLE...
OTHERWISE LLWS IMPACTS WITH 50 KT S-WINDS 2 KFT AGL. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE BY MIDDAY...BUT COULD SEE CONTINUED SW-WINDS AROUND 25 KTS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WSW-FLOW WITH MAINLY VFR.

WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

AN OFFSHORE STORM SYSTEM COULD BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ESPECIALLY
TO THE SE-TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. WITH STILL COOL AIR OVER WARMER SST...MIXING OVER THE
WATER WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR GUSTS TO 35-40 KT DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WITH STRONGEST WINDS E AND S OF CAPE
COD. WE CONVERTED THE GALE WATCH TO WARNINGS...WITH SCA FOR BOS
HARBOR...NARRAGANSETT BAY AND MASS BAY. SEAS BUILD TO 10 FEET
TONIGHT OVER SOUTHERN WATERS.

SUNDAY...GUSTY SW WINDS 25-30 KT IN THE MORNING WILL BE
DIMINISHING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND DROPPING BELOW 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CONDITIONS DETERIORATE INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH RAIN OVER THE WATERS
AND EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS. VISIBILITY IMPACTS POSSIBLE. WINDS
INCREASING OUT OF THE S. SOUTHERLY WINDS GUST TO AROUND 30
KT...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO ABOUT 10+ FEET ON THE SRN OCEAN WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AT LEAST NEEDED.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WINDS TURNING SW REMAINING BLUSTERY WITH GUSTS EXCEEDING 25 KTS.
WAVES MAINTAINED WITH HEIGHTS OF 8 TO 10 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS.

WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

AN OFFSHORE STORM SYSTEM COULD BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE
WATERS YET DETAILS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ231-232.
     GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ233>235-237-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ230-236-251.
     GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ250-254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DOODY
NEAR TERM...KJC/DOODY
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...KJC/DOODY
MARINE...KJC/DOODY



000
FXUS61 KBOX 221210
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
710 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES MODERATE TODAY ON GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. THIS WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY
MONDAY...BUT WITH A PERIOD OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. DRY
AND COOLER TUESDAY...THEN A COASTAL STORM MAY AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT THE TRACK IS STILL
UNCERTAIN. TURNING COLDER INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
7 AM UPDATE...
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS THIS MORNING AS THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK
FOR THE MOST PART. MAIN ISSUE IS TO EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS LATE
THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRES OFF THE MID ATLC COAST WILL RESULT IN DECENT WARM
ADVECTION TO DEVELOP TODAY. SUNSHINE WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING
MID/HIGH CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES...BUT NO PRECIP EXPECTED AS LOW LEVELS REMAIN QUITE DRY.
AFTER A COLD START TO THE DAY TEMPS WILL RECOVER NICELY BUT STILL
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. MAXES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S WITH MID 40S OVER THE CAPE/ISLANDS. LOW LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL LEAD TO
GUSTY SW WINDS DEVELOPING WITH GUSTS TO 25-35 MPH...MAINLY IN THE
COASTAL PLAIN. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ON THE CAPE/ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION AND WHILE MOISTURE
IN THE COLUMN DEEPENS IT IS STILL SOMEWHAT DRY IN THE LOW LEVELS.
A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY N ZONES WHERE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS GREATER BUT ANY PRECIP WILL BE SPOTTY AND VERY LIGHT.
THE MAIN CONCERN IS FOR ISOLATED POCKETS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN
CENTRAL/W MA AND SW NH IF ANY PRECIP DEVELOPS AS TEMPS EXPECTED TO
COOL TO NEAR FREEZING TONIGHT WHILE TEMPS ALOFT WARM WELL ABOVE
FREEZING. THIS IS NOT A CERTAINTY AS IT COULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY
AND WE WILL HAVE ONLY CHC POPS. TEMPS WILL HOLD NEARLY STEADY IN
THE 30S TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION AND NEAR 30 DEGREES
NW...BUT RISING INTO THE 40S S COAST AS GUSTY SW WINDS CONTINUE.
IN FACT...COULD SEE GUSTS TO 40 MPH ON CAPE/ISLANDS.

SUNDAY...
WEAK SFC RIDGING DEVELOPS ACROSS SNE AS MOISTURE GRADUALLY
DECREASES. EXPECT A DRY AND MILD DAY WITH MORNING CLOUDS GIVING
WAY TO PARTIAL SUNSHINE. USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR
TEMPS WITH MAXES IN THE LOW TO MID 50S...EXCEPT UPPER 40S NW
HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - TURNING WARMER AND WET MONDAY
 - A POSSIBLE MIDWEEK STORM...ESPECIALLY FOR SE NEW ENGLAND
 - LOOKING COLDER INTO LATE WEEK

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
22.00Z MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH ABOUT MID WEEK. THE KEY IS A DEVELOPING
LONGWAVE TROF...WHICH AXIS REMAINS WELL TO THE W ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS YIELDS CONTINUES STACKED SW
FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD...KEEPING THE BULK OF THE COLDER AIR TO
THE W. THE ONE PRIMARY ISSUE STILL WITHIN THE MOST UNCERTAIN
PORTION...FROM WED ONWARD...IS A NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT
OF THE PACIFIC TO THE S OF THE ALLEUTIAN ISLANDS. IT IS THIS
FEATURE WHICH IS STILL GENERATING A WAVE OF LOW PRES ALONG A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS LOW PRES
WOULD THEN PASS SOMEWHERE FROM THE S COAST TO WELL SE OF THE 40/70
BENCHMARK. THE ENVELOP OF POTENTIAL TRACKS START LATE WED INTO WED
NIGHT...AND RANGE FROM NEAR THE CAPE COD CANAL TO WELL OFFSHORE
WITH LITTLE TO NO IMPACT. THE ENSEMBLES ALL FALL IN THIS ENVELOP
WHILE THE GFS IS NEAR THE E EDGE AND THE ECMWF NEAR THE W EDGE.
THEREFORE...FEEL THAT A BLEND OF GUIDANCE WILL CONVEY BOTH THE
UNCERTAINTY AND TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE POTENTIAL SOLUTIONS. THIS
INCLUDES THERMAL PROFILES AS THE ECMWF IS SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER
THAN THE GFS.

DETAILS...

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...
WARM OCCLUSION WILL BE MOVING THROUGH EARLY MON MORNING...THIS IS
ASSOCIATED WITH PWATS BETWEEN 1.0-1.25 INCHES...MODERATE SLY LLJ
AROUND 65 KT AND K-VALUES ABOVE 30. ESSENTIALLY ALL INGREDIENTS FOR
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER RAIN AND CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS. TS WOULD BE ISOLATED...BUT NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. WILL
NEED TO MONITOR FOR THIS HEAVY RAIN THREAT UNTIL IT MOVES THROUGH
BY ABOUT MID MORNING-MID DAY MON. WILL ALSO NEED TO MONITOR FOR
STRONG WINDS THANKS TO PRECIP DRAG OR CONVECTIVE FORCING TO THE
SFC AS THE 65 KT LLJ CORE IS ONLY AT ABOUT H92. NOTE MODEST
INVERSION INITIALLY...BUT SOME MIXING OF THIS MOMENTUM IS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION. SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO THE MON NIGHT HOURS...BUT
WILL BE LIGHTER AND LESS WIDESPREAD AS THE UPPER LVL IMPULSE MOVES
THROUGH AND LOW-MID LVL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE.

TUE AND TUE NIGHT...
BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH PRES MOVES OVER FROM THE SW AND CRESTS ACROSS
THE REGION. MID LVL TEMPS STILL RELATIVELY HIGH...SO EXPECT TEMPS
MAINLY ABOVE NORMAL.

WED AND THU...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR A COASTAL LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVING
NE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK...COULD SEE JUST
SOME RAIN FOR E MA AND RI WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A BIT OF LIGHT
MIXED PRECIP TO THE INTERIOR CT/MA/SW NH...THIS IS THE E EDGE OF
THE ENVELOP REPRESENTED BY THE GFS. THE ECMWF IS MUCH WARMER AND
PASSES NEAR THE CANAL..BUT ALSO IS MORE DYNAMIC WITH MORE
PRECIPITATION. AT THIS TIME...GIVEN THE LACK OF A BLOCKING ARCTIC
HIGH AND SLIGHTLY POSITIVE AO/NAO AS THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER
NOTED...FEEL THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH WARM AIR IN PLACE FOR
RAIN/MIXED PRECIP RATHER THAN SNOW OUTRIGHT EVEN IF THE GFS OR E
TRACKING ENSEMBLES VERIFY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS
HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT WARM AIR COULD COME IN FASTER ALOFT AND THERE
WILL BE SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL FOR THE HOLIDAY.

LATE NEXT WEEK-EARLY WEEKEND...
THU-FRI COULD SEE BRIEF SHOT OF LIGHT PRECIP AS THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE EJECTS ENE...BUT BY THIS POINT DRIER AIR IS ALREADY
MOVING IN BEHIND THE COASTAL LOW. IN ANY CASE EXPECT COOLER AIR
TO BEGIN TO FILTER IN TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THE 12Z UPDATE.

TODAY...
VFR. MID LEVEL CIGS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON. INCREASING SW
WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 KT IN THE COASTAL
PLAIN.

TONIGHT...MAINLY LOW-END VFR CIGS DEVELOPING BUT LOW PROB FOR MVFR
WITH A FEW SHOWERS EXPECTED. ISOLATED POCKETS OF -FZRA POSSIBLE
IN W MA AND SW NH. ANY ICING WILL BE VERY LIGHT. SW WIND GUSTS TO
25-30 KT NEAR THE COAST...POSSIBLY UP TO 35 KT CAPE/ISLANDS.

SUNDAY...VFR CIGS. SW GUSTS TO 25 KT CAPE/ISLANDS IN THE
MORNING...THEN DIMINISHING WIND.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. EXPECT VFR CIGS TONIGHT BUT A
FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. SW GUSTS 25-30 KT DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE TONIGHT
BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY -FZRA. LOW PROB FOR BRIEF MVFR CIGS
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CONDITIONS DETERIORATE MVFR-LIFR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
WITH +RA AND STRONG S-WINDS WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS POSSIBLE...
OTHERWISE LLWS IMPACTS WITH 50 KT S-WINDS 2 KFT AGL. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE BY MIDDAY...BUT COULD SEE CONTINUED SW-WINDS AROUND 25 KTS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WSW-FLOW WITH MAINLY VFR.

WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

AN OFFSHORE STORM SYSTEM COULD BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ESPECIALLY
TO THE SE-TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. WITH STILL COOL AIR OVER WARMER SST...MIXING OVER THE
WATER WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR GUSTS TO 35-40 KT DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WITH STRONGEST WINDS E AND S OF CAPE
COD. WE CONVERTED THE GALE WATCH TO WARNINGS...WITH SCA FOR BOS
HARBOR...NARRAGANSETT BAY AND MASS BAY. SEAS BUILD TO 10 FEET
TONIGHT OVER SOUTHERN WATERS.

SUNDAY...GUSTY SW WINDS 25-30 KT IN THE MORNING WILL BE
DIMINISHING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND DROPPING BELOW 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CONDITIONS DETERIORATE INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH RAIN OVER THE WATERS
AND EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS. VISIBILITY IMPACTS POSSIBLE. WINDS
INCREASING OUT OF THE S. SOUTHERLY WINDS GUST TO AROUND 30
KT...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO ABOUT 10+ FEET ON THE SRN OCEAN WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AT LEAST NEEDED.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WINDS TURNING SW REMAINING BLUSTERY WITH GUSTS EXCEEDING 25 KTS.
WAVES MAINTAINED WITH HEIGHTS OF 8 TO 10 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS.

WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

AN OFFSHORE STORM SYSTEM COULD BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE
WATERS YET DETAILS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ231-232.
     GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ233>235-237-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ230-236-251.
     GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ250-254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DOODY
NEAR TERM...KJC/DOODY
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...KJC/DOODY
MARINE...KJC/DOODY



000
FXUS61 KBOX 221210
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
710 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES MODERATE TODAY ON GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. THIS WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY
MONDAY...BUT WITH A PERIOD OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. DRY
AND COOLER TUESDAY...THEN A COASTAL STORM MAY AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT THE TRACK IS STILL
UNCERTAIN. TURNING COLDER INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
7 AM UPDATE...
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS THIS MORNING AS THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK
FOR THE MOST PART. MAIN ISSUE IS TO EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS LATE
THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRES OFF THE MID ATLC COAST WILL RESULT IN DECENT WARM
ADVECTION TO DEVELOP TODAY. SUNSHINE WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING
MID/HIGH CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES...BUT NO PRECIP EXPECTED AS LOW LEVELS REMAIN QUITE DRY.
AFTER A COLD START TO THE DAY TEMPS WILL RECOVER NICELY BUT STILL
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. MAXES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S WITH MID 40S OVER THE CAPE/ISLANDS. LOW LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL LEAD TO
GUSTY SW WINDS DEVELOPING WITH GUSTS TO 25-35 MPH...MAINLY IN THE
COASTAL PLAIN. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ON THE CAPE/ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION AND WHILE MOISTURE
IN THE COLUMN DEEPENS IT IS STILL SOMEWHAT DRY IN THE LOW LEVELS.
A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY N ZONES WHERE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS GREATER BUT ANY PRECIP WILL BE SPOTTY AND VERY LIGHT.
THE MAIN CONCERN IS FOR ISOLATED POCKETS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN
CENTRAL/W MA AND SW NH IF ANY PRECIP DEVELOPS AS TEMPS EXPECTED TO
COOL TO NEAR FREEZING TONIGHT WHILE TEMPS ALOFT WARM WELL ABOVE
FREEZING. THIS IS NOT A CERTAINTY AS IT COULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY
AND WE WILL HAVE ONLY CHC POPS. TEMPS WILL HOLD NEARLY STEADY IN
THE 30S TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION AND NEAR 30 DEGREES
NW...BUT RISING INTO THE 40S S COAST AS GUSTY SW WINDS CONTINUE.
IN FACT...COULD SEE GUSTS TO 40 MPH ON CAPE/ISLANDS.

SUNDAY...
WEAK SFC RIDGING DEVELOPS ACROSS SNE AS MOISTURE GRADUALLY
DECREASES. EXPECT A DRY AND MILD DAY WITH MORNING CLOUDS GIVING
WAY TO PARTIAL SUNSHINE. USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR
TEMPS WITH MAXES IN THE LOW TO MID 50S...EXCEPT UPPER 40S NW
HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - TURNING WARMER AND WET MONDAY
 - A POSSIBLE MIDWEEK STORM...ESPECIALLY FOR SE NEW ENGLAND
 - LOOKING COLDER INTO LATE WEEK

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
22.00Z MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH ABOUT MID WEEK. THE KEY IS A DEVELOPING
LONGWAVE TROF...WHICH AXIS REMAINS WELL TO THE W ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS YIELDS CONTINUES STACKED SW
FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD...KEEPING THE BULK OF THE COLDER AIR TO
THE W. THE ONE PRIMARY ISSUE STILL WITHIN THE MOST UNCERTAIN
PORTION...FROM WED ONWARD...IS A NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT
OF THE PACIFIC TO THE S OF THE ALLEUTIAN ISLANDS. IT IS THIS
FEATURE WHICH IS STILL GENERATING A WAVE OF LOW PRES ALONG A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS LOW PRES
WOULD THEN PASS SOMEWHERE FROM THE S COAST TO WELL SE OF THE 40/70
BENCHMARK. THE ENVELOP OF POTENTIAL TRACKS START LATE WED INTO WED
NIGHT...AND RANGE FROM NEAR THE CAPE COD CANAL TO WELL OFFSHORE
WITH LITTLE TO NO IMPACT. THE ENSEMBLES ALL FALL IN THIS ENVELOP
WHILE THE GFS IS NEAR THE E EDGE AND THE ECMWF NEAR THE W EDGE.
THEREFORE...FEEL THAT A BLEND OF GUIDANCE WILL CONVEY BOTH THE
UNCERTAINTY AND TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE POTENTIAL SOLUTIONS. THIS
INCLUDES THERMAL PROFILES AS THE ECMWF IS SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER
THAN THE GFS.

DETAILS...

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...
WARM OCCLUSION WILL BE MOVING THROUGH EARLY MON MORNING...THIS IS
ASSOCIATED WITH PWATS BETWEEN 1.0-1.25 INCHES...MODERATE SLY LLJ
AROUND 65 KT AND K-VALUES ABOVE 30. ESSENTIALLY ALL INGREDIENTS FOR
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER RAIN AND CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS. TS WOULD BE ISOLATED...BUT NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. WILL
NEED TO MONITOR FOR THIS HEAVY RAIN THREAT UNTIL IT MOVES THROUGH
BY ABOUT MID MORNING-MID DAY MON. WILL ALSO NEED TO MONITOR FOR
STRONG WINDS THANKS TO PRECIP DRAG OR CONVECTIVE FORCING TO THE
SFC AS THE 65 KT LLJ CORE IS ONLY AT ABOUT H92. NOTE MODEST
INVERSION INITIALLY...BUT SOME MIXING OF THIS MOMENTUM IS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION. SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO THE MON NIGHT HOURS...BUT
WILL BE LIGHTER AND LESS WIDESPREAD AS THE UPPER LVL IMPULSE MOVES
THROUGH AND LOW-MID LVL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE.

TUE AND TUE NIGHT...
BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH PRES MOVES OVER FROM THE SW AND CRESTS ACROSS
THE REGION. MID LVL TEMPS STILL RELATIVELY HIGH...SO EXPECT TEMPS
MAINLY ABOVE NORMAL.

WED AND THU...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR A COASTAL LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVING
NE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK...COULD SEE JUST
SOME RAIN FOR E MA AND RI WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A BIT OF LIGHT
MIXED PRECIP TO THE INTERIOR CT/MA/SW NH...THIS IS THE E EDGE OF
THE ENVELOP REPRESENTED BY THE GFS. THE ECMWF IS MUCH WARMER AND
PASSES NEAR THE CANAL..BUT ALSO IS MORE DYNAMIC WITH MORE
PRECIPITATION. AT THIS TIME...GIVEN THE LACK OF A BLOCKING ARCTIC
HIGH AND SLIGHTLY POSITIVE AO/NAO AS THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER
NOTED...FEEL THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH WARM AIR IN PLACE FOR
RAIN/MIXED PRECIP RATHER THAN SNOW OUTRIGHT EVEN IF THE GFS OR E
TRACKING ENSEMBLES VERIFY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS
HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT WARM AIR COULD COME IN FASTER ALOFT AND THERE
WILL BE SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL FOR THE HOLIDAY.

LATE NEXT WEEK-EARLY WEEKEND...
THU-FRI COULD SEE BRIEF SHOT OF LIGHT PRECIP AS THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE EJECTS ENE...BUT BY THIS POINT DRIER AIR IS ALREADY
MOVING IN BEHIND THE COASTAL LOW. IN ANY CASE EXPECT COOLER AIR
TO BEGIN TO FILTER IN TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THE 12Z UPDATE.

TODAY...
VFR. MID LEVEL CIGS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON. INCREASING SW
WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 KT IN THE COASTAL
PLAIN.

TONIGHT...MAINLY LOW-END VFR CIGS DEVELOPING BUT LOW PROB FOR MVFR
WITH A FEW SHOWERS EXPECTED. ISOLATED POCKETS OF -FZRA POSSIBLE
IN W MA AND SW NH. ANY ICING WILL BE VERY LIGHT. SW WIND GUSTS TO
25-30 KT NEAR THE COAST...POSSIBLY UP TO 35 KT CAPE/ISLANDS.

SUNDAY...VFR CIGS. SW GUSTS TO 25 KT CAPE/ISLANDS IN THE
MORNING...THEN DIMINISHING WIND.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. EXPECT VFR CIGS TONIGHT BUT A
FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. SW GUSTS 25-30 KT DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE TONIGHT
BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY -FZRA. LOW PROB FOR BRIEF MVFR CIGS
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CONDITIONS DETERIORATE MVFR-LIFR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
WITH +RA AND STRONG S-WINDS WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS POSSIBLE...
OTHERWISE LLWS IMPACTS WITH 50 KT S-WINDS 2 KFT AGL. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE BY MIDDAY...BUT COULD SEE CONTINUED SW-WINDS AROUND 25 KTS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WSW-FLOW WITH MAINLY VFR.

WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

AN OFFSHORE STORM SYSTEM COULD BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ESPECIALLY
TO THE SE-TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. WITH STILL COOL AIR OVER WARMER SST...MIXING OVER THE
WATER WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR GUSTS TO 35-40 KT DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WITH STRONGEST WINDS E AND S OF CAPE
COD. WE CONVERTED THE GALE WATCH TO WARNINGS...WITH SCA FOR BOS
HARBOR...NARRAGANSETT BAY AND MASS BAY. SEAS BUILD TO 10 FEET
TONIGHT OVER SOUTHERN WATERS.

SUNDAY...GUSTY SW WINDS 25-30 KT IN THE MORNING WILL BE
DIMINISHING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND DROPPING BELOW 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CONDITIONS DETERIORATE INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH RAIN OVER THE WATERS
AND EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS. VISIBILITY IMPACTS POSSIBLE. WINDS
INCREASING OUT OF THE S. SOUTHERLY WINDS GUST TO AROUND 30
KT...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO ABOUT 10+ FEET ON THE SRN OCEAN WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AT LEAST NEEDED.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WINDS TURNING SW REMAINING BLUSTERY WITH GUSTS EXCEEDING 25 KTS.
WAVES MAINTAINED WITH HEIGHTS OF 8 TO 10 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS.

WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

AN OFFSHORE STORM SYSTEM COULD BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE
WATERS YET DETAILS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ231-232.
     GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ233>235-237-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ230-236-251.
     GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ250-254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DOODY
NEAR TERM...KJC/DOODY
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...KJC/DOODY
MARINE...KJC/DOODY



000
FXUS61 KBOX 221210
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
710 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES MODERATE TODAY ON GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. THIS WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY
MONDAY...BUT WITH A PERIOD OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. DRY
AND COOLER TUESDAY...THEN A COASTAL STORM MAY AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT THE TRACK IS STILL
UNCERTAIN. TURNING COLDER INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
7 AM UPDATE...
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS THIS MORNING AS THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK
FOR THE MOST PART. MAIN ISSUE IS TO EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS LATE
THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRES OFF THE MID ATLC COAST WILL RESULT IN DECENT WARM
ADVECTION TO DEVELOP TODAY. SUNSHINE WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING
MID/HIGH CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES...BUT NO PRECIP EXPECTED AS LOW LEVELS REMAIN QUITE DRY.
AFTER A COLD START TO THE DAY TEMPS WILL RECOVER NICELY BUT STILL
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. MAXES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S WITH MID 40S OVER THE CAPE/ISLANDS. LOW LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL LEAD TO
GUSTY SW WINDS DEVELOPING WITH GUSTS TO 25-35 MPH...MAINLY IN THE
COASTAL PLAIN. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ON THE CAPE/ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION AND WHILE MOISTURE
IN THE COLUMN DEEPENS IT IS STILL SOMEWHAT DRY IN THE LOW LEVELS.
A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY N ZONES WHERE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS GREATER BUT ANY PRECIP WILL BE SPOTTY AND VERY LIGHT.
THE MAIN CONCERN IS FOR ISOLATED POCKETS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN
CENTRAL/W MA AND SW NH IF ANY PRECIP DEVELOPS AS TEMPS EXPECTED TO
COOL TO NEAR FREEZING TONIGHT WHILE TEMPS ALOFT WARM WELL ABOVE
FREEZING. THIS IS NOT A CERTAINTY AS IT COULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY
AND WE WILL HAVE ONLY CHC POPS. TEMPS WILL HOLD NEARLY STEADY IN
THE 30S TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION AND NEAR 30 DEGREES
NW...BUT RISING INTO THE 40S S COAST AS GUSTY SW WINDS CONTINUE.
IN FACT...COULD SEE GUSTS TO 40 MPH ON CAPE/ISLANDS.

SUNDAY...
WEAK SFC RIDGING DEVELOPS ACROSS SNE AS MOISTURE GRADUALLY
DECREASES. EXPECT A DRY AND MILD DAY WITH MORNING CLOUDS GIVING
WAY TO PARTIAL SUNSHINE. USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR
TEMPS WITH MAXES IN THE LOW TO MID 50S...EXCEPT UPPER 40S NW
HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - TURNING WARMER AND WET MONDAY
 - A POSSIBLE MIDWEEK STORM...ESPECIALLY FOR SE NEW ENGLAND
 - LOOKING COLDER INTO LATE WEEK

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
22.00Z MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH ABOUT MID WEEK. THE KEY IS A DEVELOPING
LONGWAVE TROF...WHICH AXIS REMAINS WELL TO THE W ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS YIELDS CONTINUES STACKED SW
FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD...KEEPING THE BULK OF THE COLDER AIR TO
THE W. THE ONE PRIMARY ISSUE STILL WITHIN THE MOST UNCERTAIN
PORTION...FROM WED ONWARD...IS A NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT
OF THE PACIFIC TO THE S OF THE ALLEUTIAN ISLANDS. IT IS THIS
FEATURE WHICH IS STILL GENERATING A WAVE OF LOW PRES ALONG A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS LOW PRES
WOULD THEN PASS SOMEWHERE FROM THE S COAST TO WELL SE OF THE 40/70
BENCHMARK. THE ENVELOP OF POTENTIAL TRACKS START LATE WED INTO WED
NIGHT...AND RANGE FROM NEAR THE CAPE COD CANAL TO WELL OFFSHORE
WITH LITTLE TO NO IMPACT. THE ENSEMBLES ALL FALL IN THIS ENVELOP
WHILE THE GFS IS NEAR THE E EDGE AND THE ECMWF NEAR THE W EDGE.
THEREFORE...FEEL THAT A BLEND OF GUIDANCE WILL CONVEY BOTH THE
UNCERTAINTY AND TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE POTENTIAL SOLUTIONS. THIS
INCLUDES THERMAL PROFILES AS THE ECMWF IS SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER
THAN THE GFS.

DETAILS...

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...
WARM OCCLUSION WILL BE MOVING THROUGH EARLY MON MORNING...THIS IS
ASSOCIATED WITH PWATS BETWEEN 1.0-1.25 INCHES...MODERATE SLY LLJ
AROUND 65 KT AND K-VALUES ABOVE 30. ESSENTIALLY ALL INGREDIENTS FOR
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER RAIN AND CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS. TS WOULD BE ISOLATED...BUT NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. WILL
NEED TO MONITOR FOR THIS HEAVY RAIN THREAT UNTIL IT MOVES THROUGH
BY ABOUT MID MORNING-MID DAY MON. WILL ALSO NEED TO MONITOR FOR
STRONG WINDS THANKS TO PRECIP DRAG OR CONVECTIVE FORCING TO THE
SFC AS THE 65 KT LLJ CORE IS ONLY AT ABOUT H92. NOTE MODEST
INVERSION INITIALLY...BUT SOME MIXING OF THIS MOMENTUM IS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION. SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO THE MON NIGHT HOURS...BUT
WILL BE LIGHTER AND LESS WIDESPREAD AS THE UPPER LVL IMPULSE MOVES
THROUGH AND LOW-MID LVL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE.

TUE AND TUE NIGHT...
BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH PRES MOVES OVER FROM THE SW AND CRESTS ACROSS
THE REGION. MID LVL TEMPS STILL RELATIVELY HIGH...SO EXPECT TEMPS
MAINLY ABOVE NORMAL.

WED AND THU...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR A COASTAL LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVING
NE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK...COULD SEE JUST
SOME RAIN FOR E MA AND RI WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A BIT OF LIGHT
MIXED PRECIP TO THE INTERIOR CT/MA/SW NH...THIS IS THE E EDGE OF
THE ENVELOP REPRESENTED BY THE GFS. THE ECMWF IS MUCH WARMER AND
PASSES NEAR THE CANAL..BUT ALSO IS MORE DYNAMIC WITH MORE
PRECIPITATION. AT THIS TIME...GIVEN THE LACK OF A BLOCKING ARCTIC
HIGH AND SLIGHTLY POSITIVE AO/NAO AS THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER
NOTED...FEEL THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH WARM AIR IN PLACE FOR
RAIN/MIXED PRECIP RATHER THAN SNOW OUTRIGHT EVEN IF THE GFS OR E
TRACKING ENSEMBLES VERIFY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS
HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT WARM AIR COULD COME IN FASTER ALOFT AND THERE
WILL BE SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL FOR THE HOLIDAY.

LATE NEXT WEEK-EARLY WEEKEND...
THU-FRI COULD SEE BRIEF SHOT OF LIGHT PRECIP AS THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE EJECTS ENE...BUT BY THIS POINT DRIER AIR IS ALREADY
MOVING IN BEHIND THE COASTAL LOW. IN ANY CASE EXPECT COOLER AIR
TO BEGIN TO FILTER IN TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THE 12Z UPDATE.

TODAY...
VFR. MID LEVEL CIGS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON. INCREASING SW
WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 KT IN THE COASTAL
PLAIN.

TONIGHT...MAINLY LOW-END VFR CIGS DEVELOPING BUT LOW PROB FOR MVFR
WITH A FEW SHOWERS EXPECTED. ISOLATED POCKETS OF -FZRA POSSIBLE
IN W MA AND SW NH. ANY ICING WILL BE VERY LIGHT. SW WIND GUSTS TO
25-30 KT NEAR THE COAST...POSSIBLY UP TO 35 KT CAPE/ISLANDS.

SUNDAY...VFR CIGS. SW GUSTS TO 25 KT CAPE/ISLANDS IN THE
MORNING...THEN DIMINISHING WIND.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. EXPECT VFR CIGS TONIGHT BUT A
FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. SW GUSTS 25-30 KT DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE TONIGHT
BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY -FZRA. LOW PROB FOR BRIEF MVFR CIGS
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CONDITIONS DETERIORATE MVFR-LIFR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
WITH +RA AND STRONG S-WINDS WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS POSSIBLE...
OTHERWISE LLWS IMPACTS WITH 50 KT S-WINDS 2 KFT AGL. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE BY MIDDAY...BUT COULD SEE CONTINUED SW-WINDS AROUND 25 KTS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WSW-FLOW WITH MAINLY VFR.

WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

AN OFFSHORE STORM SYSTEM COULD BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ESPECIALLY
TO THE SE-TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. WITH STILL COOL AIR OVER WARMER SST...MIXING OVER THE
WATER WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR GUSTS TO 35-40 KT DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WITH STRONGEST WINDS E AND S OF CAPE
COD. WE CONVERTED THE GALE WATCH TO WARNINGS...WITH SCA FOR BOS
HARBOR...NARRAGANSETT BAY AND MASS BAY. SEAS BUILD TO 10 FEET
TONIGHT OVER SOUTHERN WATERS.

SUNDAY...GUSTY SW WINDS 25-30 KT IN THE MORNING WILL BE
DIMINISHING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND DROPPING BELOW 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CONDITIONS DETERIORATE INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH RAIN OVER THE WATERS
AND EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS. VISIBILITY IMPACTS POSSIBLE. WINDS
INCREASING OUT OF THE S. SOUTHERLY WINDS GUST TO AROUND 30
KT...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO ABOUT 10+ FEET ON THE SRN OCEAN WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AT LEAST NEEDED.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WINDS TURNING SW REMAINING BLUSTERY WITH GUSTS EXCEEDING 25 KTS.
WAVES MAINTAINED WITH HEIGHTS OF 8 TO 10 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS.

WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

AN OFFSHORE STORM SYSTEM COULD BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE
WATERS YET DETAILS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ231-232.
     GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ233>235-237-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ230-236-251.
     GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ250-254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DOODY
NEAR TERM...KJC/DOODY
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...KJC/DOODY
MARINE...KJC/DOODY



000
FXUS61 KOKX 221149 CCA
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
645 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH TONIGHT...
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE AREA TONIGHT AS
WELL. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY...THEN
LIFTS TO OUR NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT
THEN FOLLOWS BEHIND IT MONDAY NIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD
TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY TRACKS NORTHEAST AS IT
STRENGTHENS...REACHING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THURSDAY. A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THEN LINGERS NEAR THE AREA INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS
IN OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. MAINLY TO TWEAK DOWNWARD
TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING IN NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS.
OVERALL THOUGH...THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

A SHORTWAVE RIDGE EXITS THIS MORNING...LEAVING ZONAL FLOW IN ITS
WAKE ALOFT. WITH NO DISCERNIBLE FORCING EMBEDDED IN THE ZONAL
FLOW...IT SHOULD BE DRY. THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON IN
RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE.

FOR HIGHS TODAY...USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 950 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE NOT QUITE AS COLD AS YESTERDAY...BUT
STILL AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES TO THE NORTH TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD BRING
AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND...WHEN COUPLED WITH SOME WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT...A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT RAIN OR
FREEZING RAIN ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA. FOR NOW
IT APPEARS THAT LOWS ACROSS MAINLY THE FAR NORTHERN TIER OF THE
CWA...AS WELL AS THE W 2/3-3/4 OF ORANGE COUNTY SHOULD BE AT OR
JUST BELOW FREEZING. SO THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN
IN THESE AREAS...IF ANY PRECIPITATION FALLS. AT THIS TIME...THE
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION OCCURRING IS FAR TO LOW - LESS THAN
40 PERCENT TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY - OR EVEN A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT HIGHLIGHTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME GLAZING OF ICE FROM
ORANGE COUNTY ON E ACROSS INTERIOR S CT.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES WAS USED...WITH VALUES EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL.

DEEP LAYERED RIDGING TRANSITS THE AREA SUNDAY...KEEPING THINGS
DRY. AS THE RIDGE EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT...DEEPENING
SE SFC-SW FLOW ALOFT WILL ADVECT IN ABUNDANT MOISTURE...AND WITH
DIFFLUENT FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT - THE LIKELIHOOD OF MODERATE
RAINFALL INCREASES BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO
CATEGORICAL SUNDAY NIGHT.

FOR HIGHS SUNDAY A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH A MIX DOWN
FROM 975 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES
WAS USED. HIGHS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. FOR LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES WAS USED...WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE 10-15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. LIKELY WILL SEE RISING TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT.

RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS MONDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE
AND 850 WARM FRONTS FINISH LIFTING TO THE NORTH...WITH ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS COMING TO AN END MONDAY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. REFER TO THE HYDROLOGY SECTION OF THE AFD
FOR FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND ANY IMPACTS.

MONDAY WILL END UP BEING VERY MILD...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
LOWER 60S OVER FAR EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA...TO THE UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70 ACROSS THE NYC METRO. THIS IS 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
AND CONSISTENT WITH A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 950-925 HPA PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A BLEND OF MAV/MET
GUIDANCE. RECORD HIGHS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AS A RESULT. REFER
TO THE CLIMATE SECTION OF THE AFD FOR DETAILS.

FOR LOWS MONDAY NIGHT A BLEND OF MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE
WAS USED WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES. VALUES SHOULD BE AROUND
THE MID TO UPPER 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THERE ARE STILL SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS HANDLING OF
A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO TEXAS
TUESDAY MORNING...AND MORE IMPORTANTLY HOW A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE DIVING DOWN FROM N CENTRAL CANADA INTERACTS WITH THIS
TROUGH IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

THE 00Z ECMWF IS THE STRONGEST WITH THIS NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE...AND HENCE ULTIMATELY DEEPER AND CLOSER TO THE COAST
WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW. THE CMC IS THE SLOWEST WITH THIS
FEATURE AND DOES NOT HAVE MUCH IF ANY PHASING WITH THE FULL
LATITUDE TROUGH...SO ITS LOW IS WEAKER AND FAR ENOUGH OUT TO SEA
THAT THERE WOULD BE LITTLE OR NO IMPACT. THE GFS HAS ABOUT THE
SAME STRENGTH OF THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AS THE CMC...BUT
IS FASTER AND HENCE HAS ENOUGH PHASING WITH THE FULL LATITUDE
TROUGH TO HAVE ITS LOW BE A BIT STRONGER AND CLOSER TO THE COAST
THAN THE CMC. THE 00Z GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS. SO BASED ON THIS...FOR
NOW IT APPEARS THE ECMWF IS AN OUTLIER AND HAVE LEANED MORE
TOWARDS A NON-ECMWF SOLUTION AT THIS TIME.

GIVEN THE GFS TENDENCY TO BE A BIT TO FAR OFFSHORE THIS FAR OUT
IN TIME WITH THESE SORTS OF SYSTEMS...HAVE OPTED FOR A SOLUTION
SIMILAR IN STRENGTH TO THE GFS...BUT SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO THE
COAST...BUT STILL TO THE EAST OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. ADJUSTED
POPS TO BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN 6 HOURLY
PROBABILITY OF 0.05 INCHES OF QPF FROM TUESDAY- THURSDAY...THOUGH
DID GENERALLY CAP AT AROUND 40 PERCENT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.

IT SHOULD BE DRY TUESDAY UNDER SW FLOW ALOFT. A REINFORCING SHOT OF
LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ARRIVES LATE TUESDAY BEHIND A PASSING DRY COLD
FRONT. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP FROM SE TO NW LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE...FOR NOW OFF AND ON IN
NATURE...INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING...THEN TAPER OFF FROM NW TO SE
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN AS LIGHT SNOW
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS AREAS N/W OF NYC...IF IT GETS THAT
FAR INLAND...AND AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS MOST OF S CT...WITH
MAINLY RAIN ELSEWHERE. ALL PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE TO RAIN
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. AS THE LOW DEEPENS AS IT PASSES TO OUR
SE AND E WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ENOUGH LOW LEVEL COLD AIR SHOULD MOVE
IN TO TURN ALL PRECIPITATION OVER TO A LIGHT SNOW. PRECIPITATION
SHOULD TRANSITION BACK OVER TO RAIN THEN RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY AS
THE STORM PULLS AWAY.

ONCE AGAIN...THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL THAT THE STORM STAYS FAR
ENOUGH OUT TO SEE THAT THE AREA RECEIVES NO PRECIPITATION. THERE
IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY THAT A SOLUTION CLOSER TO THE ECMWF
OCCURS...THIS WOULD RESULT IN MORE PRECIPITATION...AND LIKELY MORE
SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA. AT THIS
TIME IT IS TOO EARLY TO SPECULATE ON ANY EXACT IMPACT/EXTENT OF
THIS SYSTEM DUE TO THE LARGE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY ON ITS EXACT
TRACK AND STRENGTH. STAY TUNED.

MODELS ARE STILL DIVERGENT OVER WHAT HAPPENS BEHIND THE
STORM...BUT IT APPEARS MOST LIKELY THAT THERE COULD BE SOME
UNSETTLED WEATHER IN ITS WAKE EITHER DUE TO A LINGERING TROUGH
BEHIND THE LOW...OR ANOTHER WEAK STORM SYSTEM CROSSING THE AREA
LATE IN THE WEEK.

FOR TEMPERATURES TUESDAY-FRIDAY USED A BLEND OF
MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE. BLENDED IN GFS 2-METER
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ECMWF AND GFS
2-METER TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY TO BETTER REFLECT IMPACT OF
EVAPORATIVE COOLING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THE LONG RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH TODAY.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A FEW HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THIS
MORNING...WITH A MID LEVEL DECK MOVING IN LATE AFT/EVE. BRIEF MVFR
CEILINGS POSSIBLE 00Z TO 03Z SUN AT KSWF.

SW WINDS INCREASE THIS MORNING TO 10 TO 15 KT WITH G20KT AFTER
14-15Z. GUSTS END BY 00Z SUN.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUN THROUGH WED...
.SUN...VFR.
.SUN NIGHT-MON...BECOMING MVFR/IFR. POSSIBLY SUB-IFR. RA AND FG
WITH LLWS POSSIBLE.
.MON NIGHT-TUE...VFR.
.WED...MAINLY VFR...ALTHOUGH POSSIBLE RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX MAY
IMPACT THE AREA...ESPECIALLY EAST OF NYC METRO.

&&

.MARINE...
MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS
IN OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR SOUTH TODAY WITH THE GRADIENT TIGHTENING
THIS AFTERNOON. SCA CONDITIONS BECOME LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALL
WATERS EXCEPT THE WESTERN SOUND AND NY HARBOR...BUT A GUST OR TWO UP
TO 25 KT FOR THESE ZONES IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THE GRADIENT
RELAXES TOWARDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE RIDGE PIVOTS THROUGH
THE WATERS. WILL CARRY THE SCA THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOR THE EASTERN
SOUND AND LI BAYS...AND THROUGH THE ENTIRE NIGHT FOR THE OCEAN
WATERS WEST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET. EAST OF THIS...SEAS WILL BE SLOWER
TO SUBSIDE ON A SW FLOW. WAVEWATCH LOOKS A LITTLE TOO HIGH FOR SEAS
HERE CONSIDERING THERE SHOULD BE VERY LITTLE SWELL TO FACTOR IN.
HAVE THEREFORE ENDED SCA HERE AT NOON ON SUNDAY.

WINDS PICK UP AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A STRONG LOW MOVES
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A 60KT+ LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTING
THROUGH LATE AT NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING BRINGS THE THREAT OF
GALES. BETTER OVERALL CHANCES WOULD BE ON THE OCEAN WATERS...BUT
THIS COULD EXPAND TO THE OTHER ZONES. SCA CONDITIONS OTHERWISE PREVAIL
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A RELATIVELY
BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. SCA
CONDITIONS THEN BECOME MORE PROBABLE AS WEDNESDAY PROGRESSES AS A
COASTAL STORM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR 3/4 TO 1 1/3 INCHES OF RAIN FROM SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY EVENING...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AT THIS TIME IS EXPECTED OVER THE NYC METRO
AREA...AND LIGHTEST AMOUNTS OVER FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF SE CT AND
THE TWIN FORKS OF LONG ISLAND. WHILE FOR THE MOST PART NO
SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC IMPACT IS EXPECTED...THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. AREAS THAT
EXPERIENCE THIS...IF ANY DO...COULD EXPERIENCE MINOR FLOODING OF
URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY 24 NOVEMBER...

LOCATION........RECORD/YEAR.....FORECAST HIGH

NEWARK..............75/1979...........70
BRIDGEPORT..........63/1979...........64
CENTRAL PARK........73/1979...........68
LAGUARDIA AIRPORT...68/1999...........69
JFK AIRPORT.........63/2001*..........66
ISLIP...............63/2001...........66

* ALSO OCCURRED IN PREVIOUS YEARS

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT
     FOR ANZ330-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JC
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT
CLIMATE...








000
FXUS61 KOKX 221149 CCA
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
645 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH TONIGHT...
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE AREA TONIGHT AS
WELL. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY...THEN
LIFTS TO OUR NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT
THEN FOLLOWS BEHIND IT MONDAY NIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD
TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY TRACKS NORTHEAST AS IT
STRENGTHENS...REACHING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THURSDAY. A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THEN LINGERS NEAR THE AREA INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS
IN OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. MAINLY TO TWEAK DOWNWARD
TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING IN NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS.
OVERALL THOUGH...THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

A SHORTWAVE RIDGE EXITS THIS MORNING...LEAVING ZONAL FLOW IN ITS
WAKE ALOFT. WITH NO DISCERNIBLE FORCING EMBEDDED IN THE ZONAL
FLOW...IT SHOULD BE DRY. THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON IN
RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE.

FOR HIGHS TODAY...USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 950 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE NOT QUITE AS COLD AS YESTERDAY...BUT
STILL AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES TO THE NORTH TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD BRING
AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND...WHEN COUPLED WITH SOME WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT...A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT RAIN OR
FREEZING RAIN ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA. FOR NOW
IT APPEARS THAT LOWS ACROSS MAINLY THE FAR NORTHERN TIER OF THE
CWA...AS WELL AS THE W 2/3-3/4 OF ORANGE COUNTY SHOULD BE AT OR
JUST BELOW FREEZING. SO THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN
IN THESE AREAS...IF ANY PRECIPITATION FALLS. AT THIS TIME...THE
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION OCCURRING IS FAR TO LOW - LESS THAN
40 PERCENT TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY - OR EVEN A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT HIGHLIGHTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME GLAZING OF ICE FROM
ORANGE COUNTY ON E ACROSS INTERIOR S CT.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES WAS USED...WITH VALUES EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL.

DEEP LAYERED RIDGING TRANSITS THE AREA SUNDAY...KEEPING THINGS
DRY. AS THE RIDGE EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT...DEEPENING
SE SFC-SW FLOW ALOFT WILL ADVECT IN ABUNDANT MOISTURE...AND WITH
DIFFLUENT FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT - THE LIKELIHOOD OF MODERATE
RAINFALL INCREASES BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO
CATEGORICAL SUNDAY NIGHT.

FOR HIGHS SUNDAY A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH A MIX DOWN
FROM 975 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES
WAS USED. HIGHS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. FOR LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES WAS USED...WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE 10-15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. LIKELY WILL SEE RISING TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT.

RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS MONDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE
AND 850 WARM FRONTS FINISH LIFTING TO THE NORTH...WITH ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS COMING TO AN END MONDAY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. REFER TO THE HYDROLOGY SECTION OF THE AFD
FOR FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND ANY IMPACTS.

MONDAY WILL END UP BEING VERY MILD...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
LOWER 60S OVER FAR EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA...TO THE UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70 ACROSS THE NYC METRO. THIS IS 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
AND CONSISTENT WITH A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 950-925 HPA PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A BLEND OF MAV/MET
GUIDANCE. RECORD HIGHS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AS A RESULT. REFER
TO THE CLIMATE SECTION OF THE AFD FOR DETAILS.

FOR LOWS MONDAY NIGHT A BLEND OF MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE
WAS USED WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES. VALUES SHOULD BE AROUND
THE MID TO UPPER 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THERE ARE STILL SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS HANDLING OF
A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO TEXAS
TUESDAY MORNING...AND MORE IMPORTANTLY HOW A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE DIVING DOWN FROM N CENTRAL CANADA INTERACTS WITH THIS
TROUGH IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

THE 00Z ECMWF IS THE STRONGEST WITH THIS NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE...AND HENCE ULTIMATELY DEEPER AND CLOSER TO THE COAST
WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW. THE CMC IS THE SLOWEST WITH THIS
FEATURE AND DOES NOT HAVE MUCH IF ANY PHASING WITH THE FULL
LATITUDE TROUGH...SO ITS LOW IS WEAKER AND FAR ENOUGH OUT TO SEA
THAT THERE WOULD BE LITTLE OR NO IMPACT. THE GFS HAS ABOUT THE
SAME STRENGTH OF THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AS THE CMC...BUT
IS FASTER AND HENCE HAS ENOUGH PHASING WITH THE FULL LATITUDE
TROUGH TO HAVE ITS LOW BE A BIT STRONGER AND CLOSER TO THE COAST
THAN THE CMC. THE 00Z GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS. SO BASED ON THIS...FOR
NOW IT APPEARS THE ECMWF IS AN OUTLIER AND HAVE LEANED MORE
TOWARDS A NON-ECMWF SOLUTION AT THIS TIME.

GIVEN THE GFS TENDENCY TO BE A BIT TO FAR OFFSHORE THIS FAR OUT
IN TIME WITH THESE SORTS OF SYSTEMS...HAVE OPTED FOR A SOLUTION
SIMILAR IN STRENGTH TO THE GFS...BUT SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO THE
COAST...BUT STILL TO THE EAST OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. ADJUSTED
POPS TO BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN 6 HOURLY
PROBABILITY OF 0.05 INCHES OF QPF FROM TUESDAY- THURSDAY...THOUGH
DID GENERALLY CAP AT AROUND 40 PERCENT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.

IT SHOULD BE DRY TUESDAY UNDER SW FLOW ALOFT. A REINFORCING SHOT OF
LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ARRIVES LATE TUESDAY BEHIND A PASSING DRY COLD
FRONT. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP FROM SE TO NW LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE...FOR NOW OFF AND ON IN
NATURE...INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING...THEN TAPER OFF FROM NW TO SE
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN AS LIGHT SNOW
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS AREAS N/W OF NYC...IF IT GETS THAT
FAR INLAND...AND AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS MOST OF S CT...WITH
MAINLY RAIN ELSEWHERE. ALL PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE TO RAIN
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. AS THE LOW DEEPENS AS IT PASSES TO OUR
SE AND E WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ENOUGH LOW LEVEL COLD AIR SHOULD MOVE
IN TO TURN ALL PRECIPITATION OVER TO A LIGHT SNOW. PRECIPITATION
SHOULD TRANSITION BACK OVER TO RAIN THEN RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY AS
THE STORM PULLS AWAY.

ONCE AGAIN...THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL THAT THE STORM STAYS FAR
ENOUGH OUT TO SEE THAT THE AREA RECEIVES NO PRECIPITATION. THERE
IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY THAT A SOLUTION CLOSER TO THE ECMWF
OCCURS...THIS WOULD RESULT IN MORE PRECIPITATION...AND LIKELY MORE
SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA. AT THIS
TIME IT IS TOO EARLY TO SPECULATE ON ANY EXACT IMPACT/EXTENT OF
THIS SYSTEM DUE TO THE LARGE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY ON ITS EXACT
TRACK AND STRENGTH. STAY TUNED.

MODELS ARE STILL DIVERGENT OVER WHAT HAPPENS BEHIND THE
STORM...BUT IT APPEARS MOST LIKELY THAT THERE COULD BE SOME
UNSETTLED WEATHER IN ITS WAKE EITHER DUE TO A LINGERING TROUGH
BEHIND THE LOW...OR ANOTHER WEAK STORM SYSTEM CROSSING THE AREA
LATE IN THE WEEK.

FOR TEMPERATURES TUESDAY-FRIDAY USED A BLEND OF
MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE. BLENDED IN GFS 2-METER
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ECMWF AND GFS
2-METER TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY TO BETTER REFLECT IMPACT OF
EVAPORATIVE COOLING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THE LONG RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH TODAY.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A FEW HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THIS
MORNING...WITH A MID LEVEL DECK MOVING IN LATE AFT/EVE. BRIEF MVFR
CEILINGS POSSIBLE 00Z TO 03Z SUN AT KSWF.

SW WINDS INCREASE THIS MORNING TO 10 TO 15 KT WITH G20KT AFTER
14-15Z. GUSTS END BY 00Z SUN.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUN THROUGH WED...
.SUN...VFR.
.SUN NIGHT-MON...BECOMING MVFR/IFR. POSSIBLY SUB-IFR. RA AND FG
WITH LLWS POSSIBLE.
.MON NIGHT-TUE...VFR.
.WED...MAINLY VFR...ALTHOUGH POSSIBLE RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX MAY
IMPACT THE AREA...ESPECIALLY EAST OF NYC METRO.

&&

.MARINE...
MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS
IN OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR SOUTH TODAY WITH THE GRADIENT TIGHTENING
THIS AFTERNOON. SCA CONDITIONS BECOME LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALL
WATERS EXCEPT THE WESTERN SOUND AND NY HARBOR...BUT A GUST OR TWO UP
TO 25 KT FOR THESE ZONES IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THE GRADIENT
RELAXES TOWARDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE RIDGE PIVOTS THROUGH
THE WATERS. WILL CARRY THE SCA THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOR THE EASTERN
SOUND AND LI BAYS...AND THROUGH THE ENTIRE NIGHT FOR THE OCEAN
WATERS WEST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET. EAST OF THIS...SEAS WILL BE SLOWER
TO SUBSIDE ON A SW FLOW. WAVEWATCH LOOKS A LITTLE TOO HIGH FOR SEAS
HERE CONSIDERING THERE SHOULD BE VERY LITTLE SWELL TO FACTOR IN.
HAVE THEREFORE ENDED SCA HERE AT NOON ON SUNDAY.

WINDS PICK UP AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A STRONG LOW MOVES
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A 60KT+ LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTING
THROUGH LATE AT NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING BRINGS THE THREAT OF
GALES. BETTER OVERALL CHANCES WOULD BE ON THE OCEAN WATERS...BUT
THIS COULD EXPAND TO THE OTHER ZONES. SCA CONDITIONS OTHERWISE PREVAIL
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A RELATIVELY
BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. SCA
CONDITIONS THEN BECOME MORE PROBABLE AS WEDNESDAY PROGRESSES AS A
COASTAL STORM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR 3/4 TO 1 1/3 INCHES OF RAIN FROM SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY EVENING...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AT THIS TIME IS EXPECTED OVER THE NYC METRO
AREA...AND LIGHTEST AMOUNTS OVER FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF SE CT AND
THE TWIN FORKS OF LONG ISLAND. WHILE FOR THE MOST PART NO
SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC IMPACT IS EXPECTED...THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. AREAS THAT
EXPERIENCE THIS...IF ANY DO...COULD EXPERIENCE MINOR FLOODING OF
URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY 24 NOVEMBER...

LOCATION........RECORD/YEAR.....FORECAST HIGH

NEWARK..............75/1979...........70
BRIDGEPORT..........63/1979...........64
CENTRAL PARK........73/1979...........68
LAGUARDIA AIRPORT...68/1999...........69
JFK AIRPORT.........63/2001*..........66
ISLIP...............63/2001...........66

* ALSO OCCURRED IN PREVIOUS YEARS

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT
     FOR ANZ330-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JC
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT
CLIMATE...









000
FXUS61 KOKX 221126
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
626 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH TONIGHT...
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE AREA TONIGHT AS
WELL. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY...THEN
LIFTS TO OUR NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT
THEN FOLLOWS BEHIND IT MONDAY NIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD
TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY TRACKS NORTHEAST AS IT
STRENGTHENS...REACHING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THURSDAY. A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THEN LINGERS NEAR THE AREA INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS
IN OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. MAINLY TO TWEAK DOWNWARD
TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING IN NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS.
OVERALL THOUGH...THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

A SHORTWAVE RIDGE EXITS THIS MORNING...LEAVING ZONAL FLOW IN ITS
WAKE ALOFT. WITH NO DISCERNIBLE FORCING EMBEDDED IN THE ZONAL
FLOW...IT SHOULD BE DRY. THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON IN
RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE.

FOR HIGHS TODAY...USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 950 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE NOT QUITE AS COLD AS YESTERDAY...BUT
STILL AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES TO THE NORTH TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD BRING
AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND...WHEN COUPLED WITH SOME WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT...A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT RAIN OR
FREEZING RAIN ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA. FOR NOW
IT APPEARS THAT LOWS ACROSS MAINLY THE FAR NORTHERN TIER OF THE
CWA...AS WELL AS THE W 2/3-3/4 OF ORANGE COUNTY SHOULD BE AT OR
JUST BELOW FREEZING. SO THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN
IN THESE AREAS...IF ANY PRECIPITATION FALLS. AT THIS TIME...THE
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION OCCURRING IS FAR TO LOW - LESS THAN
40 PERCENT TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY - OR EVEN A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT HIGHLIGHTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME GLAZING OF ICE FROM
ORANGE COUNTY ON E ACROSS INTERIOR S CT.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES WAS USED...WITH VALUES EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL.

DEEP LAYERED RIDGING TRANSITS THE AREA SUNDAY...KEEPING THINGS
DRY. AS THE RIDGE EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT...DEEPENING
SE SFC-SW FLOW ALOFT WILL ADVECTING IN ABUNDANT MOISTURE...AND
WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT - THE LIKELIHOOD OF MODERATE
RAINFALL BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL
SUNDAY NIGHT.

FOR HIGHS SUNDAY A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH A MIX DOWN
FROM 975 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES
WAS USED. HIGHS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. FOR LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES WAS USED...WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE 10-15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. LIKELY WILL SEE RISING TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT.

RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS MONDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE
AND 850 WARM FRONTS FINISH LIFTING TO THE NORTH...WITH ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS COMING TO AN END MONDAY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. REFER TO THE HYDROLOGY SECTION OF THE AFD
FOR FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND ANY IMPACTS.

MONDAY WILL END UP BEING VERY MILD...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
LOWER 60S OVER FAR EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA...TO THE UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70 ACROSS THE NYC METRO. THIS IS 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
AND CONSISTENT WITH A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 950-925 HPA PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A BLEND OF MAV/MET
GUIDANCE. RECORD HIGHS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AS A RESULT. REFER
TO THE CLIMATE SECTION OF THE AFD FOR DETAILS.

FOR LOWS MONDAY NIGHT A BLEND OF MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE
WAS USED WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES. VALUES SHOULD BE AROUND

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THERE ARE STILL SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS HANDLING OF
A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO TEXAS
TUESDAY MORNING...AND MORE IMPORTANTLY HOW A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE DIVING DOWN FROM N CENTRAL CANADA INTERACTS WITH THIS
TROUGH IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

THE 00Z ECMWF IS THE STRONGEST WITH THIS NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE...AND HENCE ULTIMATELY DEEPER AND CLOSER TO THE COAST
WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW. THE CMC IS THE SLOWEST WITH THIS
FEATURE AND DOES NOT HAVE MUCH IF ANY PHASING WITH THE FULL
LATITUDE TROUGH...SO ITS LOW IS WEAKER AND FAR ENOUGH OUT TO SEA
THAT THERE WOULD BE LITTLE OR NO IMPACT. THE GFS HAS ABOUT THE
SAME STRENGTH OF THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AS THE CMC...BUT
IS FASTER AND HENCE HAS ENOUGH PHASING WITH THE FULL LATITUDE
TROUGH TO HAVE ITS LOW BE A BIT STRONGER AND CLOSER TO THE COAST
THAN THE CMC. THE 00Z GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS. SO BASED ON THIS...FOR
NOW IT APPEARS THE ECMWF IS AN OUTLIER AND HAVE LEANED MORE
TOWARDS A NON-ECMWF SOLUTION AT THIS TIME.

GIVEN THE GFS TENDENCY TO BE A BIT TO FAR OFFSHORE THIS FAR OUT
IN TIME WITH THESE SORTS OF SYSTEMS...HAVE OPTED FOR A SOLUTION
SIMILAR IN STRENGTH TO THE GFS...BUT SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO THE
COAST...BUT STILL TO THE EAST OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. ADJUSTED
POPS TO BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN 6 HOURLY
PROBABILITY OF 0.05 INCHES OF QPF FROM TUESDAY- THURSDAY...THOUGH
DID GENERALLY CAP AT AROUND 40 PERCENT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.

IT SHOULD BE DRY TUESDAY UNDER SW FLOW ALOFT. A REINFORCING SHOT OF
LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ARRIVES LATE TUESDAY BEHIND A PASSING DRY COLD
FRONT. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP FROM SE TO NW LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE...FOR NOW OFF AND ON IN
NATURE...INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING...THEN TAPER OFF FROM NW TO SE
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN AS LIGHT SNOW
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS AREAS N/W OF NYC...IF IT GETS THAT
FAR INLAND...AND AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS MOST OF S CT...WITH
MAINLY RAIN ELSEWHERE. ALL PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE TO RAIN
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. AS THE LOW DEEPENS AS IT PASSES TO OUR
SE AND E WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ENOUGH LOW LEVEL COLD AIR SHOULD MOVE
IN TO TURN ALL PRECIPITATION OVER TO A LIGHT SNOW. PRECIPITATION
SHOULD TRANSITION BACK OVER TO RAIN THEN RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY AS
THE STORM PULLS AWAY.

ONCE AGAIN...THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL THAT THE STORM STAYS FAR
ENOUGH OUT TO SEE THAT THE AREA RECEIVES NO PRECIPITATION. THERE
IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY THAT A SOLUTION CLOSER TO THE ECMWF
OCCURS...THIS WOULD RESULT IN MORE PRECIPITATION...AND LIKELY MORE
SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA. AT THIS
TIME IT IS TOO EARLY TO SPECULATE ON ANY EXACT IMPACT/EXTENT OF
THIS SYSTEM DUE TO THE LARGE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY ON ITS EXACT
TRACK AND STRENGTH. STAY TUNED.

MODELS ARE STILL DIVERGENT OVER WHAT HAPPENS BEHIND THE
STORM...BUT IT APPEARS MOST LIKELY THAT THERE COULD BE SOME
UNSETTLED WEATHER IN ITS WAKE EITHER DUE TO A LINGERING TROUGH
BEHIND THE LOW...OR ANOTHER WEAK STORM SYSTEM CROSSING THE AREA
LATE IN THE WEEK.

FOR TEMPERATURES TUESDAY-FRIDAY USED A BLEND OF
MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE. BLENDED IN GFS 2-METER
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ECMWF AND GFS
2-METER TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY TO BETTER REFLECT IMPACT OF
EVAPORATIVE COOLING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THE LONG RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH TODAY.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A FEW HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THIS
MORNING...WITH A MID LEVEL DECK MOVING IN LATE AFT/EVE. BRIEF MVFR
CEILINGS POSSIBLE 00Z TO 03Z SUN AT KSWF.

SW WINDS INCREASE THIS MORNING TO 10 TO 15 KT WITH G20KT AFTER
14-15Z. GUSTS END BY 00Z SUN.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUN THROUGH WED...
.SUN...VFR.
.SUN NIGHT-MON...BECOMING MVFR/IFR. POSSIBLY SUB-IFR. RA AND FG
WITH LLWS POSSIBLE.
.MON NIGHT-TUE...VFR.
.WED...MAINLY VFR...ALTHOUGH POSSIBLE RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX MAY
IMPACT THE AREA...ESPECIALLY EAST OF NYC METRO.

&&

.MARINE...
MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS
IN OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR SOUTH TODAY WITH THE GRADIENT TIGHTENING
THIS AFTERNOON. SCA CONDITIONS BECOME LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALL
WATERS EXCEPT THE WESTERN SOUND AND NY HARBOR...BUT A GUST OR TWO UP
TO 25 KT FOR THESE ZONES IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THE GRADIENT
RELAXES TOWARDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE RIDGE PIVOTS THROUGH
THE WATERS. WILL CARRY THE SCA THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOR THE EASTERN
SOUND AND LI BAYS...AND THROUGH THE ENTIRE NIGHT FOR THE OCEAN
WATERS WEST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET. EAST OF THIS...SEAS WILL BE SLOWER
TO SUBSIDE ON A SW FLOW. WAVEWATCH LOOKS A LITTLE TOO HIGH FOR SEAS
HERE CONSIDERING THERE SHOULD BE VERY LITTLE SWELL TO FACTOR IN.
HAVE THEREFORE ENDED SCA HERE AT NOON ON SUNDAY.

WINDS PICK UP AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A STRONG LOW MOVES
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A 60KT+ LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTING
THROUGH LATE AT NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING BRINGS THE THREAT OF
GALES. BETTER OVERALL CHANCES WOULD BE ON THE OCEAN WATERS...BUT
THIS COULD EXPAND TO THE OTHER ZONES. SCA CONDITIONS OTHERWISE PREVAIL
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A RELATIVELY
BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. SCA
CONDITIONS THEN BECOME MORE PROBABLE AS WEDNESDAY PROGRESSES AS A
COASTAL STORM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR 3/4 TO 1 1/3 INCHES OF RAIN FROM SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY EVENING...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AT THIS TIME IS EXPECTED OVER THE NYC METRO
AREA...AND LIGHTEST AMOUNTS OVER FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF SE CT AND
THE TWIN FORKS OF LONG ISLAND. WHILE FOR THE MOST PART NO
SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC IMPACT IS EXPECTED...THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. AREAS THAT
EXPERIENCE THIS...IF ANY DO...COULD EXPERIENCE MINOR FLOODING OF
URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY 24 NOVEMBER...

LOCATION........RECORD/YEAR.....FORECAST HIGH

NEWARK..............75/1979...........70
BRIDGEPORT..........63/1979...........64
CENTRAL PARK........73/1979...........68
LAGUARDIA AIRPORT...68/1999...........69
JFK AIRPORT.........63/2001*..........66
ISLIP...............63/2001...........66

* ALSO OCCURRED IN PREVIOUS YEARS

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT
     FOR ANZ330-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JC
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KALY 221126
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
626 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION
THIS MORNING. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH
AND WEST OF ALBANY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING MILDER AIR TO THE
REGION FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH SOME RAINFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM EST SATURDAY TO 5
AM EST SUNDAY FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY...SCHOHARIE VALLEY...SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...

AS OF 630 AM EST...MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS. IN FACT...SOME OF THE WARMEST TEMPS
ARE CURRENTLY IN THESE NORTHERN AREAS DUE TO THE CLOUDS...IN THE
LOWER 20S...WHILE AREAS ACROSS NW CT AND WESTERN MA ARE AMONG THE
COLDEST...GENERALLY IN THE LOWER/MID TEENS.

SOME SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING FOR AREAS S AND E OF
ALBANY...WHILE SOME HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO EXPAND
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH MID MORNING. CLOUDS ARE
THEN EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON...IN RESPONSE TO INTENSIFYING MID LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S.

IN ADDITION...A PAIR OF MID LEVEL IMPULSES...ONE CURRENTLY ACROSS
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...AND ANOTHER TO THE NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES...WILL PROVIDE ENHANCED DYNAMICAL LIFT AS WELL BY LATE
AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY REGION...WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND AREAS MAINLY W OF THE HUDSON RIVER FROM ALBANY
NORTH BETWEEN 3 AND 5 PM.

FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THAT PRECIP MAY START AS A
SNOW/SLEET MIX ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...AND A SLEET/RAIN MIX IN
LOWER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER...AS SOME WET BULB COOLING
DEVELOPS...THE CHANCES FOR FREEZING RAIN WILL INCREASE AROUND AND
ESP AFTER SUNSET FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY REGION AND AREAS NORTHWARD.
ALSO...DESPITE TEMPS POSSIBLY RISING ABOVE FREEZING TODAY...THE
GROUND WILL REMAIN QUITE COLD...SO IT SHOULD BE FAIRLY EASY FOR
LIGHT ICING TO DEVELOP ON UNTREATED SURFACES.

FURTHER S AND E...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE...THE THREAT FOR
PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH SUNSET FOR AREAS E OF THE
HUDSON RIVER.

TEMPS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 30S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND MID/UPPER 30S FOR VALLEY AREAS. A BRISK SOUTH
WIND IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FROM
ALBANY SOUTH LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL
MAKE CONDITIONS FEEL EVEN COLDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...PRECIPITATION SHOULD EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE FOR AREAS
NEAR AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. SOME LIGHT PRECIP MAY
ALSO OCCASIONALLY REACH AREAS SOUTH OF I-90...INTO THE SE
CATSKILLS...TACONICS AND BERKSHIRES...AND PERHAPS AS FAR S AS THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST
THAT HYDROMETEORS REACHING THE SFC SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF
ICE PELLETS OF LIQUID...BUT FOR MANY AREAS N AND W OF ALBANY...SFC
TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...ALLOWING FOR THE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL.
AGAIN...WITH THE GROUND SO COLD...UNTREATED SURFACES COULD BECOME
RATHER SLIPPERY. THE AREA WHERE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT REPRESENTS THE REGION WITH THE GREATEST PROBABILITY OF
FREEZING RAIN. WILL HAVE TO WATCH RADAR TRENDS AND MESONET SFC
OBS CLOSELY...AS SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN MAY OCCUR EVEN
OUTSIDE THE CURRENT ADVISORY AREAS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
VT AND WESTERN MA. MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE REACHED BETWEEN 10 PM AND 1
AM EST...BEFORE GRADUALLY RISING THEREAFTER.

SUNDAY...THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD PASS NORTH AND EAST OF
THE REGION BY EARLY/MID MORNING...WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL FORCING
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...QUITE A BIT OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION IN THE FORM OF LOW
CLOUDS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. HAVE SIDED
ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS...WITH MAINLY 40S
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH SOME LOWER 50S ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A STRONGER MID LEVEL IMPULSE...CURRENTLY
APPROACHING THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...IS EXPECTED TO DAMPEN AS IT
TRACKS RAPIDLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. STRONG LOW AND MID
LEVEL SOUTH WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IMPULSE WILL ALLOW A BURST
OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION LATE AT
NIGHT. BEFORE THIS OCCURS...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS IN THE
EVENING MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO BRIEFLY DIP INTO THE MID AND UPPER
30S...BEFORE RISING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE RAPIDLY INCREASING
CLOUDS. MODERATE RAIN IS THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...THROUGH DAYBREAK
MONDAY. RAINFALL AMTS OF ONE TO TWO THIRDS OF AN INCH ARE
EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. IN ADDITION...GIVEN
THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL JET TRAVERSING THE REGION LATE AT
NIGHT...WITH THE 00Z/NAM12 SUGGESTING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST H850 WINDS
OF 60-70 KT OVER SW NEW ENGLAND AND SE NY...SOME RATHER WINDY
CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
TACONICS...SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS AND BERKSHIRES...AND POSSIBLY THE
CATSKILLS...WITH SOME WIND GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 40-45 MPH.

MONDAY...RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF RATHER QUICKLY EARLY IN THE MORNING
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. THEREAFTER...IT APPEARS THAT LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF FORCING WILL BE PRESENT IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH
AFTERNOON...AS THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAIN WELL
TO OUR WEST. SO...ALTHOUGH HAVE INDICATED SOME SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS...MUCH OF MONDAY AFTERNOON MAY ACTUALLY REMAIN RAIN FREE.
HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST IN THE FORM OF LOW
CLOUDS IN MOST AREAS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD STILL BECOME RATHER MILD BY
LATE AFTERNOON...GENERALLY REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN
MOST VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 50S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. SHOULD ANY
BREAKS OF SUN DEVELOP...MUCH WARMER MAX TEMPS COULD OCCUR.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS MAINLY DRY AND ENDS MAINLY DRY. IT IS
THE MIDDLE PERIOD OF THE FORECAST PERIOD SURROUNDING THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY WHICH MAKES FOR A TRICKY FORECAST. THE ECMWF
HAS TRACKED FARTHER NORTH AND WEST WITH THE COASTAL LOW THE LAST
COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS AS SURFACE WAVE GETS CAPTURED BY UPPER TROUGH
THE GFS AND GGEM ARE MUCH FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE SURFACE
WAVE THUS THE REASON FOR ONLY GOING WITH CHANCE POPS THIS FAR OUT.
IN ADDITION TO BEING FARTHER OUT TO SEA...BOTH THE GFS AND GGEM HAVE
A MUCH WEAKER SYSTEM. AT 12Z THURSDAY ECMWF HAS A 985 MB LOW ALONG
DOWNEAST MAINE WHEREAS THE GFS HAS A 1004 MB LOW SOUTHEAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA AND THE GGEM IS EVEN WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH A
1007 MB LOW ESSENTIALLY OUT TO SEA. THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WITH ONLY THE ECMWF SHOWING AN
IMPACT ON FA WILL ONLY MENTION A CHANCE OF A STORM POTENTIALLY
IMPACTING THE FA IN THE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY TIME FRAME IN THE
HWO.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD...A COOL DOWN IS IN STORE WITH TEMPS
FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S
NORTHWEST TO LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST...LOWERS 30S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 40S
SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY...UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 40 SOUTHEAST
ON THURSDAY AND UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S ON FRIDAY. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 40S SOUTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT...UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO MID 30S SOUTHEAST TUESDAY
NIGHT....20S TO LOWER 30S WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
UPPER 20S THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT
MIXED PCPN TO THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WITH
MAINLY RAIN AND SLEET EXCEPT FOR FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET AT KGFL
AND KPSF.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS DURING MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z
SUNDAY. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE MOVING IN BETWEEN 13Z-15Z/SAT.
THERE COULD BE SOME SPOTTY SNOW SHOWERS AROUND FROM KALB NORTH AND
EAST AFTER 20Z/SAT...AND THESE WERE ADDRESSED WITH A VCSH FOR
KALB/KGFL/KPSF FOR NOW. THIS EVENING THE PCPN WILL BEGIN AND WHILE
CIGS WL REMAIN VFR...MVFR VSBYS ARE EXPECTED AT KGFL/KALB AND
KPSF. ONCE AGAIN THE PCPN TYPE WL BE MAINLY -RAPL EXCEPT FOR
-FZRAPL AT KGFL AND KPSF.

EXPECT THE WINDS TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 8-12
KTS LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH SOME GUSTS CLOSE
TO 20 KTS AT KALB. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 4 TO 10 KTS
THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL IMPACT THE REGION...MAINLY FOR AREAS
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
BASIN AVERAGE LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF PRECIP WILL BE A QUARTER OF AN
INCH OR LESS...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS. ALONG WITH A MILDER AIR MASS...A MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP
EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY
BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR SO...LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR NYZ032-033-038>042-047-048-082-083.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL








000
FXUS61 KALY 221126
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
626 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION
THIS MORNING. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH
AND WEST OF ALBANY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING MILDER AIR TO THE
REGION FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH SOME RAINFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM EST SATURDAY TO 5
AM EST SUNDAY FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY...SCHOHARIE VALLEY...SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...

AS OF 630 AM EST...MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS. IN FACT...SOME OF THE WARMEST TEMPS
ARE CURRENTLY IN THESE NORTHERN AREAS DUE TO THE CLOUDS...IN THE
LOWER 20S...WHILE AREAS ACROSS NW CT AND WESTERN MA ARE AMONG THE
COLDEST...GENERALLY IN THE LOWER/MID TEENS.

SOME SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING FOR AREAS S AND E OF
ALBANY...WHILE SOME HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO EXPAND
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH MID MORNING. CLOUDS ARE
THEN EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON...IN RESPONSE TO INTENSIFYING MID LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S.

IN ADDITION...A PAIR OF MID LEVEL IMPULSES...ONE CURRENTLY ACROSS
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...AND ANOTHER TO THE NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES...WILL PROVIDE ENHANCED DYNAMICAL LIFT AS WELL BY LATE
AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY REGION...WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND AREAS MAINLY W OF THE HUDSON RIVER FROM ALBANY
NORTH BETWEEN 3 AND 5 PM.

FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THAT PRECIP MAY START AS A
SNOW/SLEET MIX ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...AND A SLEET/RAIN MIX IN
LOWER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER...AS SOME WET BULB COOLING
DEVELOPS...THE CHANCES FOR FREEZING RAIN WILL INCREASE AROUND AND
ESP AFTER SUNSET FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY REGION AND AREAS NORTHWARD.
ALSO...DESPITE TEMPS POSSIBLY RISING ABOVE FREEZING TODAY...THE
GROUND WILL REMAIN QUITE COLD...SO IT SHOULD BE FAIRLY EASY FOR
LIGHT ICING TO DEVELOP ON UNTREATED SURFACES.

FURTHER S AND E...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE...THE THREAT FOR
PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH SUNSET FOR AREAS E OF THE
HUDSON RIVER.

TEMPS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 30S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND MID/UPPER 30S FOR VALLEY AREAS. A BRISK SOUTH
WIND IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FROM
ALBANY SOUTH LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL
MAKE CONDITIONS FEEL EVEN COLDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...PRECIPITATION SHOULD EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE FOR AREAS
NEAR AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. SOME LIGHT PRECIP MAY
ALSO OCCASIONALLY REACH AREAS SOUTH OF I-90...INTO THE SE
CATSKILLS...TACONICS AND BERKSHIRES...AND PERHAPS AS FAR S AS THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST
THAT HYDROMETEORS REACHING THE SFC SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF
ICE PELLETS OF LIQUID...BUT FOR MANY AREAS N AND W OF ALBANY...SFC
TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...ALLOWING FOR THE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL.
AGAIN...WITH THE GROUND SO COLD...UNTREATED SURFACES COULD BECOME
RATHER SLIPPERY. THE AREA WHERE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT REPRESENTS THE REGION WITH THE GREATEST PROBABILITY OF
FREEZING RAIN. WILL HAVE TO WATCH RADAR TRENDS AND MESONET SFC
OBS CLOSELY...AS SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN MAY OCCUR EVEN
OUTSIDE THE CURRENT ADVISORY AREAS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
VT AND WESTERN MA. MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE REACHED BETWEEN 10 PM AND 1
AM EST...BEFORE GRADUALLY RISING THEREAFTER.

SUNDAY...THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD PASS NORTH AND EAST OF
THE REGION BY EARLY/MID MORNING...WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL FORCING
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...QUITE A BIT OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION IN THE FORM OF LOW
CLOUDS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. HAVE SIDED
ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS...WITH MAINLY 40S
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH SOME LOWER 50S ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A STRONGER MID LEVEL IMPULSE...CURRENTLY
APPROACHING THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...IS EXPECTED TO DAMPEN AS IT
TRACKS RAPIDLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. STRONG LOW AND MID
LEVEL SOUTH WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IMPULSE WILL ALLOW A BURST
OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION LATE AT
NIGHT. BEFORE THIS OCCURS...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS IN THE
EVENING MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO BRIEFLY DIP INTO THE MID AND UPPER
30S...BEFORE RISING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE RAPIDLY INCREASING
CLOUDS. MODERATE RAIN IS THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...THROUGH DAYBREAK
MONDAY. RAINFALL AMTS OF ONE TO TWO THIRDS OF AN INCH ARE
EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. IN ADDITION...GIVEN
THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL JET TRAVERSING THE REGION LATE AT
NIGHT...WITH THE 00Z/NAM12 SUGGESTING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST H850 WINDS
OF 60-70 KT OVER SW NEW ENGLAND AND SE NY...SOME RATHER WINDY
CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
TACONICS...SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS AND BERKSHIRES...AND POSSIBLY THE
CATSKILLS...WITH SOME WIND GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 40-45 MPH.

MONDAY...RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF RATHER QUICKLY EARLY IN THE MORNING
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. THEREAFTER...IT APPEARS THAT LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF FORCING WILL BE PRESENT IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH
AFTERNOON...AS THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAIN WELL
TO OUR WEST. SO...ALTHOUGH HAVE INDICATED SOME SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS...MUCH OF MONDAY AFTERNOON MAY ACTUALLY REMAIN RAIN FREE.
HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST IN THE FORM OF LOW
CLOUDS IN MOST AREAS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD STILL BECOME RATHER MILD BY
LATE AFTERNOON...GENERALLY REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN
MOST VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 50S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. SHOULD ANY
BREAKS OF SUN DEVELOP...MUCH WARMER MAX TEMPS COULD OCCUR.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS MAINLY DRY AND ENDS MAINLY DRY. IT IS
THE MIDDLE PERIOD OF THE FORECAST PERIOD SURROUNDING THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY WHICH MAKES FOR A TRICKY FORECAST. THE ECMWF
HAS TRACKED FARTHER NORTH AND WEST WITH THE COASTAL LOW THE LAST
COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS AS SURFACE WAVE GETS CAPTURED BY UPPER TROUGH
THE GFS AND GGEM ARE MUCH FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE SURFACE
WAVE THUS THE REASON FOR ONLY GOING WITH CHANCE POPS THIS FAR OUT.
IN ADDITION TO BEING FARTHER OUT TO SEA...BOTH THE GFS AND GGEM HAVE
A MUCH WEAKER SYSTEM. AT 12Z THURSDAY ECMWF HAS A 985 MB LOW ALONG
DOWNEAST MAINE WHEREAS THE GFS HAS A 1004 MB LOW SOUTHEAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA AND THE GGEM IS EVEN WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH A
1007 MB LOW ESSENTIALLY OUT TO SEA. THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WITH ONLY THE ECMWF SHOWING AN
IMPACT ON FA WILL ONLY MENTION A CHANCE OF A STORM POTENTIALLY
IMPACTING THE FA IN THE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY TIME FRAME IN THE
HWO.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD...A COOL DOWN IS IN STORE WITH TEMPS
FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S
NORTHWEST TO LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST...LOWERS 30S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 40S
SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY...UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 40 SOUTHEAST
ON THURSDAY AND UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S ON FRIDAY. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 40S SOUTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT...UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO MID 30S SOUTHEAST TUESDAY
NIGHT....20S TO LOWER 30S WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
UPPER 20S THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT
MIXED PCPN TO THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WITH
MAINLY RAIN AND SLEET EXCEPT FOR FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET AT KGFL
AND KPSF.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS DURING MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z
SUNDAY. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE MOVING IN BETWEEN 13Z-15Z/SAT.
THERE COULD BE SOME SPOTTY SNOW SHOWERS AROUND FROM KALB NORTH AND
EAST AFTER 20Z/SAT...AND THESE WERE ADDRESSED WITH A VCSH FOR
KALB/KGFL/KPSF FOR NOW. THIS EVENING THE PCPN WILL BEGIN AND WHILE
CIGS WL REMAIN VFR...MVFR VSBYS ARE EXPECTED AT KGFL/KALB AND
KPSF. ONCE AGAIN THE PCPN TYPE WL BE MAINLY -RAPL EXCEPT FOR
-FZRAPL AT KGFL AND KPSF.

EXPECT THE WINDS TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 8-12
KTS LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH SOME GUSTS CLOSE
TO 20 KTS AT KALB. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 4 TO 10 KTS
THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL IMPACT THE REGION...MAINLY FOR AREAS
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
BASIN AVERAGE LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF PRECIP WILL BE A QUARTER OF AN
INCH OR LESS...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS. ALONG WITH A MILDER AIR MASS...A MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP
EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY
BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR SO...LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR NYZ032-033-038>042-047-048-082-083.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL








000
FXUS61 KOKX 221126
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
626 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH TONIGHT...
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE AREA TONIGHT AS
WELL. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY...THEN
LIFTS TO OUR NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT
THEN FOLLOWS BEHIND IT MONDAY NIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD
TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY TRACKS NORTHEAST AS IT
STRENGTHENS...REACHING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THURSDAY. A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THEN LINGERS NEAR THE AREA INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS
IN OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. MAINLY TO TWEAK DOWNWARD
TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING IN NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS.
OVERALL THOUGH...THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

A SHORTWAVE RIDGE EXITS THIS MORNING...LEAVING ZONAL FLOW IN ITS
WAKE ALOFT. WITH NO DISCERNIBLE FORCING EMBEDDED IN THE ZONAL
FLOW...IT SHOULD BE DRY. THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON IN
RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE.

FOR HIGHS TODAY...USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 950 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE NOT QUITE AS COLD AS YESTERDAY...BUT
STILL AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES TO THE NORTH TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD BRING
AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND...WHEN COUPLED WITH SOME WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT...A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT RAIN OR
FREEZING RAIN ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA. FOR NOW
IT APPEARS THAT LOWS ACROSS MAINLY THE FAR NORTHERN TIER OF THE
CWA...AS WELL AS THE W 2/3-3/4 OF ORANGE COUNTY SHOULD BE AT OR
JUST BELOW FREEZING. SO THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN
IN THESE AREAS...IF ANY PRECIPITATION FALLS. AT THIS TIME...THE
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION OCCURRING IS FAR TO LOW - LESS THAN
40 PERCENT TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY - OR EVEN A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT HIGHLIGHTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME GLAZING OF ICE FROM
ORANGE COUNTY ON E ACROSS INTERIOR S CT.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES WAS USED...WITH VALUES EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL.

DEEP LAYERED RIDGING TRANSITS THE AREA SUNDAY...KEEPING THINGS
DRY. AS THE RIDGE EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT...DEEPENING
SE SFC-SW FLOW ALOFT WILL ADVECTING IN ABUNDANT MOISTURE...AND
WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT - THE LIKELIHOOD OF MODERATE
RAINFALL BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL
SUNDAY NIGHT.

FOR HIGHS SUNDAY A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH A MIX DOWN
FROM 975 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES
WAS USED. HIGHS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. FOR LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES WAS USED...WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE 10-15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. LIKELY WILL SEE RISING TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT.

RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS MONDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE
AND 850 WARM FRONTS FINISH LIFTING TO THE NORTH...WITH ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS COMING TO AN END MONDAY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. REFER TO THE HYDROLOGY SECTION OF THE AFD
FOR FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND ANY IMPACTS.

MONDAY WILL END UP BEING VERY MILD...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
LOWER 60S OVER FAR EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA...TO THE UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70 ACROSS THE NYC METRO. THIS IS 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
AND CONSISTENT WITH A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 950-925 HPA PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A BLEND OF MAV/MET
GUIDANCE. RECORD HIGHS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AS A RESULT. REFER
TO THE CLIMATE SECTION OF THE AFD FOR DETAILS.

FOR LOWS MONDAY NIGHT A BLEND OF MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE
WAS USED WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES. VALUES SHOULD BE AROUND

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THERE ARE STILL SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS HANDLING OF
A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO TEXAS
TUESDAY MORNING...AND MORE IMPORTANTLY HOW A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE DIVING DOWN FROM N CENTRAL CANADA INTERACTS WITH THIS
TROUGH IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

THE 00Z ECMWF IS THE STRONGEST WITH THIS NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE...AND HENCE ULTIMATELY DEEPER AND CLOSER TO THE COAST
WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW. THE CMC IS THE SLOWEST WITH THIS
FEATURE AND DOES NOT HAVE MUCH IF ANY PHASING WITH THE FULL
LATITUDE TROUGH...SO ITS LOW IS WEAKER AND FAR ENOUGH OUT TO SEA
THAT THERE WOULD BE LITTLE OR NO IMPACT. THE GFS HAS ABOUT THE
SAME STRENGTH OF THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AS THE CMC...BUT
IS FASTER AND HENCE HAS ENOUGH PHASING WITH THE FULL LATITUDE
TROUGH TO HAVE ITS LOW BE A BIT STRONGER AND CLOSER TO THE COAST
THAN THE CMC. THE 00Z GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS. SO BASED ON THIS...FOR
NOW IT APPEARS THE ECMWF IS AN OUTLIER AND HAVE LEANED MORE
TOWARDS A NON-ECMWF SOLUTION AT THIS TIME.

GIVEN THE GFS TENDENCY TO BE A BIT TO FAR OFFSHORE THIS FAR OUT
IN TIME WITH THESE SORTS OF SYSTEMS...HAVE OPTED FOR A SOLUTION
SIMILAR IN STRENGTH TO THE GFS...BUT SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO THE
COAST...BUT STILL TO THE EAST OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. ADJUSTED
POPS TO BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN 6 HOURLY
PROBABILITY OF 0.05 INCHES OF QPF FROM TUESDAY- THURSDAY...THOUGH
DID GENERALLY CAP AT AROUND 40 PERCENT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.

IT SHOULD BE DRY TUESDAY UNDER SW FLOW ALOFT. A REINFORCING SHOT OF
LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ARRIVES LATE TUESDAY BEHIND A PASSING DRY COLD
FRONT. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP FROM SE TO NW LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE...FOR NOW OFF AND ON IN
NATURE...INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING...THEN TAPER OFF FROM NW TO SE
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN AS LIGHT SNOW
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS AREAS N/W OF NYC...IF IT GETS THAT
FAR INLAND...AND AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS MOST OF S CT...WITH
MAINLY RAIN ELSEWHERE. ALL PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE TO RAIN
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. AS THE LOW DEEPENS AS IT PASSES TO OUR
SE AND E WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ENOUGH LOW LEVEL COLD AIR SHOULD MOVE
IN TO TURN ALL PRECIPITATION OVER TO A LIGHT SNOW. PRECIPITATION
SHOULD TRANSITION BACK OVER TO RAIN THEN RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY AS
THE STORM PULLS AWAY.

ONCE AGAIN...THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL THAT THE STORM STAYS FAR
ENOUGH OUT TO SEE THAT THE AREA RECEIVES NO PRECIPITATION. THERE
IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY THAT A SOLUTION CLOSER TO THE ECMWF
OCCURS...THIS WOULD RESULT IN MORE PRECIPITATION...AND LIKELY MORE
SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA. AT THIS
TIME IT IS TOO EARLY TO SPECULATE ON ANY EXACT IMPACT/EXTENT OF
THIS SYSTEM DUE TO THE LARGE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY ON ITS EXACT
TRACK AND STRENGTH. STAY TUNED.

MODELS ARE STILL DIVERGENT OVER WHAT HAPPENS BEHIND THE
STORM...BUT IT APPEARS MOST LIKELY THAT THERE COULD BE SOME
UNSETTLED WEATHER IN ITS WAKE EITHER DUE TO A LINGERING TROUGH
BEHIND THE LOW...OR ANOTHER WEAK STORM SYSTEM CROSSING THE AREA
LATE IN THE WEEK.

FOR TEMPERATURES TUESDAY-FRIDAY USED A BLEND OF
MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE. BLENDED IN GFS 2-METER
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ECMWF AND GFS
2-METER TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY TO BETTER REFLECT IMPACT OF
EVAPORATIVE COOLING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THE LONG RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH TODAY.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A FEW HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THIS
MORNING...WITH A MID LEVEL DECK MOVING IN LATE AFT/EVE. BRIEF MVFR
CEILINGS POSSIBLE 00Z TO 03Z SUN AT KSWF.

SW WINDS INCREASE THIS MORNING TO 10 TO 15 KT WITH G20KT AFTER
14-15Z. GUSTS END BY 00Z SUN.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUN THROUGH WED...
.SUN...VFR.
.SUN NIGHT-MON...BECOMING MVFR/IFR. POSSIBLY SUB-IFR. RA AND FG
WITH LLWS POSSIBLE.
.MON NIGHT-TUE...VFR.
.WED...MAINLY VFR...ALTHOUGH POSSIBLE RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX MAY
IMPACT THE AREA...ESPECIALLY EAST OF NYC METRO.

&&

.MARINE...
MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS
IN OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR SOUTH TODAY WITH THE GRADIENT TIGHTENING
THIS AFTERNOON. SCA CONDITIONS BECOME LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALL
WATERS EXCEPT THE WESTERN SOUND AND NY HARBOR...BUT A GUST OR TWO UP
TO 25 KT FOR THESE ZONES IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THE GRADIENT
RELAXES TOWARDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE RIDGE PIVOTS THROUGH
THE WATERS. WILL CARRY THE SCA THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOR THE EASTERN
SOUND AND LI BAYS...AND THROUGH THE ENTIRE NIGHT FOR THE OCEAN
WATERS WEST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET. EAST OF THIS...SEAS WILL BE SLOWER
TO SUBSIDE ON A SW FLOW. WAVEWATCH LOOKS A LITTLE TOO HIGH FOR SEAS
HERE CONSIDERING THERE SHOULD BE VERY LITTLE SWELL TO FACTOR IN.
HAVE THEREFORE ENDED SCA HERE AT NOON ON SUNDAY.

WINDS PICK UP AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A STRONG LOW MOVES
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A 60KT+ LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTING
THROUGH LATE AT NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING BRINGS THE THREAT OF
GALES. BETTER OVERALL CHANCES WOULD BE ON THE OCEAN WATERS...BUT
THIS COULD EXPAND TO THE OTHER ZONES. SCA CONDITIONS OTHERWISE PREVAIL
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A RELATIVELY
BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. SCA
CONDITIONS THEN BECOME MORE PROBABLE AS WEDNESDAY PROGRESSES AS A
COASTAL STORM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR 3/4 TO 1 1/3 INCHES OF RAIN FROM SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY EVENING...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AT THIS TIME IS EXPECTED OVER THE NYC METRO
AREA...AND LIGHTEST AMOUNTS OVER FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF SE CT AND
THE TWIN FORKS OF LONG ISLAND. WHILE FOR THE MOST PART NO
SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC IMPACT IS EXPECTED...THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. AREAS THAT
EXPERIENCE THIS...IF ANY DO...COULD EXPERIENCE MINOR FLOODING OF
URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY 24 NOVEMBER...

LOCATION........RECORD/YEAR.....FORECAST HIGH

NEWARK..............75/1979...........70
BRIDGEPORT..........63/1979...........64
CENTRAL PARK........73/1979...........68
LAGUARDIA AIRPORT...68/1999...........69
JFK AIRPORT.........63/2001*..........66
ISLIP...............63/2001...........66

* ALSO OCCURRED IN PREVIOUS YEARS

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT
     FOR ANZ330-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JC
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KALY 221126
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
626 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION
THIS MORNING. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH
AND WEST OF ALBANY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING MILDER AIR TO THE
REGION FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH SOME RAINFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM EST SATURDAY TO 5
AM EST SUNDAY FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY...SCHOHARIE VALLEY...SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...

AS OF 630 AM EST...MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS. IN FACT...SOME OF THE WARMEST TEMPS
ARE CURRENTLY IN THESE NORTHERN AREAS DUE TO THE CLOUDS...IN THE
LOWER 20S...WHILE AREAS ACROSS NW CT AND WESTERN MA ARE AMONG THE
COLDEST...GENERALLY IN THE LOWER/MID TEENS.

SOME SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING FOR AREAS S AND E OF
ALBANY...WHILE SOME HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO EXPAND
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH MID MORNING. CLOUDS ARE
THEN EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON...IN RESPONSE TO INTENSIFYING MID LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S.

IN ADDITION...A PAIR OF MID LEVEL IMPULSES...ONE CURRENTLY ACROSS
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...AND ANOTHER TO THE NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES...WILL PROVIDE ENHANCED DYNAMICAL LIFT AS WELL BY LATE
AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY REGION...WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND AREAS MAINLY W OF THE HUDSON RIVER FROM ALBANY
NORTH BETWEEN 3 AND 5 PM.

FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THAT PRECIP MAY START AS A
SNOW/SLEET MIX ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...AND A SLEET/RAIN MIX IN
LOWER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER...AS SOME WET BULB COOLING
DEVELOPS...THE CHANCES FOR FREEZING RAIN WILL INCREASE AROUND AND
ESP AFTER SUNSET FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY REGION AND AREAS NORTHWARD.
ALSO...DESPITE TEMPS POSSIBLY RISING ABOVE FREEZING TODAY...THE
GROUND WILL REMAIN QUITE COLD...SO IT SHOULD BE FAIRLY EASY FOR
LIGHT ICING TO DEVELOP ON UNTREATED SURFACES.

FURTHER S AND E...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE...THE THREAT FOR
PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH SUNSET FOR AREAS E OF THE
HUDSON RIVER.

TEMPS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 30S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND MID/UPPER 30S FOR VALLEY AREAS. A BRISK SOUTH
WIND IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FROM
ALBANY SOUTH LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL
MAKE CONDITIONS FEEL EVEN COLDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...PRECIPITATION SHOULD EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE FOR AREAS
NEAR AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. SOME LIGHT PRECIP MAY
ALSO OCCASIONALLY REACH AREAS SOUTH OF I-90...INTO THE SE
CATSKILLS...TACONICS AND BERKSHIRES...AND PERHAPS AS FAR S AS THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST
THAT HYDROMETEORS REACHING THE SFC SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF
ICE PELLETS OF LIQUID...BUT FOR MANY AREAS N AND W OF ALBANY...SFC
TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...ALLOWING FOR THE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL.
AGAIN...WITH THE GROUND SO COLD...UNTREATED SURFACES COULD BECOME
RATHER SLIPPERY. THE AREA WHERE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT REPRESENTS THE REGION WITH THE GREATEST PROBABILITY OF
FREEZING RAIN. WILL HAVE TO WATCH RADAR TRENDS AND MESONET SFC
OBS CLOSELY...AS SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN MAY OCCUR EVEN
OUTSIDE THE CURRENT ADVISORY AREAS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
VT AND WESTERN MA. MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE REACHED BETWEEN 10 PM AND 1
AM EST...BEFORE GRADUALLY RISING THEREAFTER.

SUNDAY...THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD PASS NORTH AND EAST OF
THE REGION BY EARLY/MID MORNING...WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL FORCING
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...QUITE A BIT OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION IN THE FORM OF LOW
CLOUDS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. HAVE SIDED
ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS...WITH MAINLY 40S
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH SOME LOWER 50S ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A STRONGER MID LEVEL IMPULSE...CURRENTLY
APPROACHING THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...IS EXPECTED TO DAMPEN AS IT
TRACKS RAPIDLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. STRONG LOW AND MID
LEVEL SOUTH WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IMPULSE WILL ALLOW A BURST
OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION LATE AT
NIGHT. BEFORE THIS OCCURS...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS IN THE
EVENING MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO BRIEFLY DIP INTO THE MID AND UPPER
30S...BEFORE RISING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE RAPIDLY INCREASING
CLOUDS. MODERATE RAIN IS THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...THROUGH DAYBREAK
MONDAY. RAINFALL AMTS OF ONE TO TWO THIRDS OF AN INCH ARE
EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. IN ADDITION...GIVEN
THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL JET TRAVERSING THE REGION LATE AT
NIGHT...WITH THE 00Z/NAM12 SUGGESTING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST H850 WINDS
OF 60-70 KT OVER SW NEW ENGLAND AND SE NY...SOME RATHER WINDY
CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
TACONICS...SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS AND BERKSHIRES...AND POSSIBLY THE
CATSKILLS...WITH SOME WIND GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 40-45 MPH.

MONDAY...RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF RATHER QUICKLY EARLY IN THE MORNING
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. THEREAFTER...IT APPEARS THAT LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF FORCING WILL BE PRESENT IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH
AFTERNOON...AS THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAIN WELL
TO OUR WEST. SO...ALTHOUGH HAVE INDICATED SOME SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS...MUCH OF MONDAY AFTERNOON MAY ACTUALLY REMAIN RAIN FREE.
HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST IN THE FORM OF LOW
CLOUDS IN MOST AREAS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD STILL BECOME RATHER MILD BY
LATE AFTERNOON...GENERALLY REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN
MOST VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 50S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. SHOULD ANY
BREAKS OF SUN DEVELOP...MUCH WARMER MAX TEMPS COULD OCCUR.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS MAINLY DRY AND ENDS MAINLY DRY. IT IS
THE MIDDLE PERIOD OF THE FORECAST PERIOD SURROUNDING THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY WHICH MAKES FOR A TRICKY FORECAST. THE ECMWF
HAS TRACKED FARTHER NORTH AND WEST WITH THE COASTAL LOW THE LAST
COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS AS SURFACE WAVE GETS CAPTURED BY UPPER TROUGH
THE GFS AND GGEM ARE MUCH FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE SURFACE
WAVE THUS THE REASON FOR ONLY GOING WITH CHANCE POPS THIS FAR OUT.
IN ADDITION TO BEING FARTHER OUT TO SEA...BOTH THE GFS AND GGEM HAVE
A MUCH WEAKER SYSTEM. AT 12Z THURSDAY ECMWF HAS A 985 MB LOW ALONG
DOWNEAST MAINE WHEREAS THE GFS HAS A 1004 MB LOW SOUTHEAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA AND THE GGEM IS EVEN WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH A
1007 MB LOW ESSENTIALLY OUT TO SEA. THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WITH ONLY THE ECMWF SHOWING AN
IMPACT ON FA WILL ONLY MENTION A CHANCE OF A STORM POTENTIALLY
IMPACTING THE FA IN THE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY TIME FRAME IN THE
HWO.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD...A COOL DOWN IS IN STORE WITH TEMPS
FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S
NORTHWEST TO LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST...LOWERS 30S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 40S
SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY...UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 40 SOUTHEAST
ON THURSDAY AND UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S ON FRIDAY. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 40S SOUTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT...UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO MID 30S SOUTHEAST TUESDAY
NIGHT....20S TO LOWER 30S WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
UPPER 20S THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT
MIXED PCPN TO THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WITH
MAINLY RAIN AND SLEET EXCEPT FOR FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET AT KGFL
AND KPSF.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS DURING MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z
SUNDAY. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE MOVING IN BETWEEN 13Z-15Z/SAT.
THERE COULD BE SOME SPOTTY SNOW SHOWERS AROUND FROM KALB NORTH AND
EAST AFTER 20Z/SAT...AND THESE WERE ADDRESSED WITH A VCSH FOR
KALB/KGFL/KPSF FOR NOW. THIS EVENING THE PCPN WILL BEGIN AND WHILE
CIGS WL REMAIN VFR...MVFR VSBYS ARE EXPECTED AT KGFL/KALB AND
KPSF. ONCE AGAIN THE PCPN TYPE WL BE MAINLY -RAPL EXCEPT FOR
-FZRAPL AT KGFL AND KPSF.

EXPECT THE WINDS TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 8-12
KTS LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH SOME GUSTS CLOSE
TO 20 KTS AT KALB. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 4 TO 10 KTS
THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL IMPACT THE REGION...MAINLY FOR AREAS
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
BASIN AVERAGE LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF PRECIP WILL BE A QUARTER OF AN
INCH OR LESS...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS. ALONG WITH A MILDER AIR MASS...A MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP
EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY
BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR SO...LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR NYZ032-033-038>042-047-048-082-083.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL








000
FXUS61 KALY 221126
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
626 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION
THIS MORNING. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH
AND WEST OF ALBANY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING MILDER AIR TO THE
REGION FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH SOME RAINFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM EST SATURDAY TO 5
AM EST SUNDAY FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY...SCHOHARIE VALLEY...SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...

AS OF 630 AM EST...MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS. IN FACT...SOME OF THE WARMEST TEMPS
ARE CURRENTLY IN THESE NORTHERN AREAS DUE TO THE CLOUDS...IN THE
LOWER 20S...WHILE AREAS ACROSS NW CT AND WESTERN MA ARE AMONG THE
COLDEST...GENERALLY IN THE LOWER/MID TEENS.

SOME SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING FOR AREAS S AND E OF
ALBANY...WHILE SOME HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO EXPAND
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH MID MORNING. CLOUDS ARE
THEN EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON...IN RESPONSE TO INTENSIFYING MID LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S.

IN ADDITION...A PAIR OF MID LEVEL IMPULSES...ONE CURRENTLY ACROSS
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...AND ANOTHER TO THE NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES...WILL PROVIDE ENHANCED DYNAMICAL LIFT AS WELL BY LATE
AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY REGION...WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND AREAS MAINLY W OF THE HUDSON RIVER FROM ALBANY
NORTH BETWEEN 3 AND 5 PM.

FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THAT PRECIP MAY START AS A
SNOW/SLEET MIX ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...AND A SLEET/RAIN MIX IN
LOWER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER...AS SOME WET BULB COOLING
DEVELOPS...THE CHANCES FOR FREEZING RAIN WILL INCREASE AROUND AND
ESP AFTER SUNSET FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY REGION AND AREAS NORTHWARD.
ALSO...DESPITE TEMPS POSSIBLY RISING ABOVE FREEZING TODAY...THE
GROUND WILL REMAIN QUITE COLD...SO IT SHOULD BE FAIRLY EASY FOR
LIGHT ICING TO DEVELOP ON UNTREATED SURFACES.

FURTHER S AND E...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE...THE THREAT FOR
PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH SUNSET FOR AREAS E OF THE
HUDSON RIVER.

TEMPS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 30S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND MID/UPPER 30S FOR VALLEY AREAS. A BRISK SOUTH
WIND IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FROM
ALBANY SOUTH LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL
MAKE CONDITIONS FEEL EVEN COLDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...PRECIPITATION SHOULD EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE FOR AREAS
NEAR AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. SOME LIGHT PRECIP MAY
ALSO OCCASIONALLY REACH AREAS SOUTH OF I-90...INTO THE SE
CATSKILLS...TACONICS AND BERKSHIRES...AND PERHAPS AS FAR S AS THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST
THAT HYDROMETEORS REACHING THE SFC SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF
ICE PELLETS OF LIQUID...BUT FOR MANY AREAS N AND W OF ALBANY...SFC
TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...ALLOWING FOR THE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL.
AGAIN...WITH THE GROUND SO COLD...UNTREATED SURFACES COULD BECOME
RATHER SLIPPERY. THE AREA WHERE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT REPRESENTS THE REGION WITH THE GREATEST PROBABILITY OF
FREEZING RAIN. WILL HAVE TO WATCH RADAR TRENDS AND MESONET SFC
OBS CLOSELY...AS SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN MAY OCCUR EVEN
OUTSIDE THE CURRENT ADVISORY AREAS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
VT AND WESTERN MA. MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE REACHED BETWEEN 10 PM AND 1
AM EST...BEFORE GRADUALLY RISING THEREAFTER.

SUNDAY...THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD PASS NORTH AND EAST OF
THE REGION BY EARLY/MID MORNING...WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL FORCING
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...QUITE A BIT OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION IN THE FORM OF LOW
CLOUDS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. HAVE SIDED
ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS...WITH MAINLY 40S
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH SOME LOWER 50S ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A STRONGER MID LEVEL IMPULSE...CURRENTLY
APPROACHING THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...IS EXPECTED TO DAMPEN AS IT
TRACKS RAPIDLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. STRONG LOW AND MID
LEVEL SOUTH WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IMPULSE WILL ALLOW A BURST
OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION LATE AT
NIGHT. BEFORE THIS OCCURS...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS IN THE
EVENING MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO BRIEFLY DIP INTO THE MID AND UPPER
30S...BEFORE RISING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE RAPIDLY INCREASING
CLOUDS. MODERATE RAIN IS THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...THROUGH DAYBREAK
MONDAY. RAINFALL AMTS OF ONE TO TWO THIRDS OF AN INCH ARE
EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. IN ADDITION...GIVEN
THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL JET TRAVERSING THE REGION LATE AT
NIGHT...WITH THE 00Z/NAM12 SUGGESTING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST H850 WINDS
OF 60-70 KT OVER SW NEW ENGLAND AND SE NY...SOME RATHER WINDY
CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
TACONICS...SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS AND BERKSHIRES...AND POSSIBLY THE
CATSKILLS...WITH SOME WIND GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 40-45 MPH.

MONDAY...RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF RATHER QUICKLY EARLY IN THE MORNING
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. THEREAFTER...IT APPEARS THAT LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF FORCING WILL BE PRESENT IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH
AFTERNOON...AS THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAIN WELL
TO OUR WEST. SO...ALTHOUGH HAVE INDICATED SOME SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS...MUCH OF MONDAY AFTERNOON MAY ACTUALLY REMAIN RAIN FREE.
HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST IN THE FORM OF LOW
CLOUDS IN MOST AREAS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD STILL BECOME RATHER MILD BY
LATE AFTERNOON...GENERALLY REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN
MOST VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 50S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. SHOULD ANY
BREAKS OF SUN DEVELOP...MUCH WARMER MAX TEMPS COULD OCCUR.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS MAINLY DRY AND ENDS MAINLY DRY. IT IS
THE MIDDLE PERIOD OF THE FORECAST PERIOD SURROUNDING THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY WHICH MAKES FOR A TRICKY FORECAST. THE ECMWF
HAS TRACKED FARTHER NORTH AND WEST WITH THE COASTAL LOW THE LAST
COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS AS SURFACE WAVE GETS CAPTURED BY UPPER TROUGH
THE GFS AND GGEM ARE MUCH FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE SURFACE
WAVE THUS THE REASON FOR ONLY GOING WITH CHANCE POPS THIS FAR OUT.
IN ADDITION TO BEING FARTHER OUT TO SEA...BOTH THE GFS AND GGEM HAVE
A MUCH WEAKER SYSTEM. AT 12Z THURSDAY ECMWF HAS A 985 MB LOW ALONG
DOWNEAST MAINE WHEREAS THE GFS HAS A 1004 MB LOW SOUTHEAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA AND THE GGEM IS EVEN WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH A
1007 MB LOW ESSENTIALLY OUT TO SEA. THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WITH ONLY THE ECMWF SHOWING AN
IMPACT ON FA WILL ONLY MENTION A CHANCE OF A STORM POTENTIALLY
IMPACTING THE FA IN THE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY TIME FRAME IN THE
HWO.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD...A COOL DOWN IS IN STORE WITH TEMPS
FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S
NORTHWEST TO LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST...LOWERS 30S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 40S
SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY...UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 40 SOUTHEAST
ON THURSDAY AND UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S ON FRIDAY. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 40S SOUTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT...UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO MID 30S SOUTHEAST TUESDAY
NIGHT....20S TO LOWER 30S WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
UPPER 20S THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT
MIXED PCPN TO THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WITH
MAINLY RAIN AND SLEET EXCEPT FOR FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET AT KGFL
AND KPSF.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS DURING MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z
SUNDAY. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE MOVING IN BETWEEN 13Z-15Z/SAT.
THERE COULD BE SOME SPOTTY SNOW SHOWERS AROUND FROM KALB NORTH AND
EAST AFTER 20Z/SAT...AND THESE WERE ADDRESSED WITH A VCSH FOR
KALB/KGFL/KPSF FOR NOW. THIS EVENING THE PCPN WILL BEGIN AND WHILE
CIGS WL REMAIN VFR...MVFR VSBYS ARE EXPECTED AT KGFL/KALB AND
KPSF. ONCE AGAIN THE PCPN TYPE WL BE MAINLY -RAPL EXCEPT FOR
-FZRAPL AT KGFL AND KPSF.

EXPECT THE WINDS TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 8-12
KTS LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH SOME GUSTS CLOSE
TO 20 KTS AT KALB. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 4 TO 10 KTS
THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL IMPACT THE REGION...MAINLY FOR AREAS
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
BASIN AVERAGE LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF PRECIP WILL BE A QUARTER OF AN
INCH OR LESS...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS. ALONG WITH A MILDER AIR MASS...A MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP
EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY
BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR SO...LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR NYZ032-033-038>042-047-048-082-083.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL








000
FXUS61 KOKX 221126
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
626 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH TONIGHT...
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE AREA TONIGHT AS
WELL. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY...THEN
LIFTS TO OUR NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT
THEN FOLLOWS BEHIND IT MONDAY NIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD
TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY TRACKS NORTHEAST AS IT
STRENGTHENS...REACHING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THURSDAY. A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THEN LINGERS NEAR THE AREA INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS
IN OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. MAINLY TO TWEAK DOWNWARD
TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING IN NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS.
OVERALL THOUGH...THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

A SHORTWAVE RIDGE EXITS THIS MORNING...LEAVING ZONAL FLOW IN ITS
WAKE ALOFT. WITH NO DISCERNIBLE FORCING EMBEDDED IN THE ZONAL
FLOW...IT SHOULD BE DRY. THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON IN
RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE.

FOR HIGHS TODAY...USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 950 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE NOT QUITE AS COLD AS YESTERDAY...BUT
STILL AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES TO THE NORTH TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD BRING
AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND...WHEN COUPLED WITH SOME WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT...A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT RAIN OR
FREEZING RAIN ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA. FOR NOW
IT APPEARS THAT LOWS ACROSS MAINLY THE FAR NORTHERN TIER OF THE
CWA...AS WELL AS THE W 2/3-3/4 OF ORANGE COUNTY SHOULD BE AT OR
JUST BELOW FREEZING. SO THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN
IN THESE AREAS...IF ANY PRECIPITATION FALLS. AT THIS TIME...THE
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION OCCURRING IS FAR TO LOW - LESS THAN
40 PERCENT TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY - OR EVEN A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT HIGHLIGHTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME GLAZING OF ICE FROM
ORANGE COUNTY ON E ACROSS INTERIOR S CT.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES WAS USED...WITH VALUES EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL.

DEEP LAYERED RIDGING TRANSITS THE AREA SUNDAY...KEEPING THINGS
DRY. AS THE RIDGE EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT...DEEPENING
SE SFC-SW FLOW ALOFT WILL ADVECTING IN ABUNDANT MOISTURE...AND
WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT - THE LIKELIHOOD OF MODERATE
RAINFALL BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL
SUNDAY NIGHT.

FOR HIGHS SUNDAY A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH A MIX DOWN
FROM 975 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES
WAS USED. HIGHS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. FOR LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES WAS USED...WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE 10-15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. LIKELY WILL SEE RISING TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT.

RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS MONDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE
AND 850 WARM FRONTS FINISH LIFTING TO THE NORTH...WITH ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS COMING TO AN END MONDAY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. REFER TO THE HYDROLOGY SECTION OF THE AFD
FOR FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND ANY IMPACTS.

MONDAY WILL END UP BEING VERY MILD...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
LOWER 60S OVER FAR EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA...TO THE UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70 ACROSS THE NYC METRO. THIS IS 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
AND CONSISTENT WITH A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 950-925 HPA PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A BLEND OF MAV/MET
GUIDANCE. RECORD HIGHS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AS A RESULT. REFER
TO THE CLIMATE SECTION OF THE AFD FOR DETAILS.

FOR LOWS MONDAY NIGHT A BLEND OF MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE
WAS USED WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES. VALUES SHOULD BE AROUND

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THERE ARE STILL SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS HANDLING OF
A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO TEXAS
TUESDAY MORNING...AND MORE IMPORTANTLY HOW A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE DIVING DOWN FROM N CENTRAL CANADA INTERACTS WITH THIS
TROUGH IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

THE 00Z ECMWF IS THE STRONGEST WITH THIS NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE...AND HENCE ULTIMATELY DEEPER AND CLOSER TO THE COAST
WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW. THE CMC IS THE SLOWEST WITH THIS
FEATURE AND DOES NOT HAVE MUCH IF ANY PHASING WITH THE FULL
LATITUDE TROUGH...SO ITS LOW IS WEAKER AND FAR ENOUGH OUT TO SEA
THAT THERE WOULD BE LITTLE OR NO IMPACT. THE GFS HAS ABOUT THE
SAME STRENGTH OF THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AS THE CMC...BUT
IS FASTER AND HENCE HAS ENOUGH PHASING WITH THE FULL LATITUDE
TROUGH TO HAVE ITS LOW BE A BIT STRONGER AND CLOSER TO THE COAST
THAN THE CMC. THE 00Z GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS. SO BASED ON THIS...FOR
NOW IT APPEARS THE ECMWF IS AN OUTLIER AND HAVE LEANED MORE
TOWARDS A NON-ECMWF SOLUTION AT THIS TIME.

GIVEN THE GFS TENDENCY TO BE A BIT TO FAR OFFSHORE THIS FAR OUT
IN TIME WITH THESE SORTS OF SYSTEMS...HAVE OPTED FOR A SOLUTION
SIMILAR IN STRENGTH TO THE GFS...BUT SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO THE
COAST...BUT STILL TO THE EAST OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. ADJUSTED
POPS TO BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN 6 HOURLY
PROBABILITY OF 0.05 INCHES OF QPF FROM TUESDAY- THURSDAY...THOUGH
DID GENERALLY CAP AT AROUND 40 PERCENT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.

IT SHOULD BE DRY TUESDAY UNDER SW FLOW ALOFT. A REINFORCING SHOT OF
LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ARRIVES LATE TUESDAY BEHIND A PASSING DRY COLD
FRONT. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP FROM SE TO NW LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE...FOR NOW OFF AND ON IN
NATURE...INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING...THEN TAPER OFF FROM NW TO SE
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN AS LIGHT SNOW
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS AREAS N/W OF NYC...IF IT GETS THAT
FAR INLAND...AND AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS MOST OF S CT...WITH
MAINLY RAIN ELSEWHERE. ALL PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE TO RAIN
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. AS THE LOW DEEPENS AS IT PASSES TO OUR
SE AND E WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ENOUGH LOW LEVEL COLD AIR SHOULD MOVE
IN TO TURN ALL PRECIPITATION OVER TO A LIGHT SNOW. PRECIPITATION
SHOULD TRANSITION BACK OVER TO RAIN THEN RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY AS
THE STORM PULLS AWAY.

ONCE AGAIN...THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL THAT THE STORM STAYS FAR
ENOUGH OUT TO SEE THAT THE AREA RECEIVES NO PRECIPITATION. THERE
IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY THAT A SOLUTION CLOSER TO THE ECMWF
OCCURS...THIS WOULD RESULT IN MORE PRECIPITATION...AND LIKELY MORE
SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA. AT THIS
TIME IT IS TOO EARLY TO SPECULATE ON ANY EXACT IMPACT/EXTENT OF
THIS SYSTEM DUE TO THE LARGE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY ON ITS EXACT
TRACK AND STRENGTH. STAY TUNED.

MODELS ARE STILL DIVERGENT OVER WHAT HAPPENS BEHIND THE
STORM...BUT IT APPEARS MOST LIKELY THAT THERE COULD BE SOME
UNSETTLED WEATHER IN ITS WAKE EITHER DUE TO A LINGERING TROUGH
BEHIND THE LOW...OR ANOTHER WEAK STORM SYSTEM CROSSING THE AREA
LATE IN THE WEEK.

FOR TEMPERATURES TUESDAY-FRIDAY USED A BLEND OF
MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE. BLENDED IN GFS 2-METER
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ECMWF AND GFS
2-METER TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY TO BETTER REFLECT IMPACT OF
EVAPORATIVE COOLING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THE LONG RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH TODAY.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A FEW HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THIS
MORNING...WITH A MID LEVEL DECK MOVING IN LATE AFT/EVE. BRIEF MVFR
CEILINGS POSSIBLE 00Z TO 03Z SUN AT KSWF.

SW WINDS INCREASE THIS MORNING TO 10 TO 15 KT WITH G20KT AFTER
14-15Z. GUSTS END BY 00Z SUN.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUN THROUGH WED...
.SUN...VFR.
.SUN NIGHT-MON...BECOMING MVFR/IFR. POSSIBLY SUB-IFR. RA AND FG
WITH LLWS POSSIBLE.
.MON NIGHT-TUE...VFR.
.WED...MAINLY VFR...ALTHOUGH POSSIBLE RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX MAY
IMPACT THE AREA...ESPECIALLY EAST OF NYC METRO.

&&

.MARINE...
MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS
IN OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR SOUTH TODAY WITH THE GRADIENT TIGHTENING
THIS AFTERNOON. SCA CONDITIONS BECOME LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALL
WATERS EXCEPT THE WESTERN SOUND AND NY HARBOR...BUT A GUST OR TWO UP
TO 25 KT FOR THESE ZONES IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THE GRADIENT
RELAXES TOWARDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE RIDGE PIVOTS THROUGH
THE WATERS. WILL CARRY THE SCA THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOR THE EASTERN
SOUND AND LI BAYS...AND THROUGH THE ENTIRE NIGHT FOR THE OCEAN
WATERS WEST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET. EAST OF THIS...SEAS WILL BE SLOWER
TO SUBSIDE ON A SW FLOW. WAVEWATCH LOOKS A LITTLE TOO HIGH FOR SEAS
HERE CONSIDERING THERE SHOULD BE VERY LITTLE SWELL TO FACTOR IN.
HAVE THEREFORE ENDED SCA HERE AT NOON ON SUNDAY.

WINDS PICK UP AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A STRONG LOW MOVES
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A 60KT+ LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTING
THROUGH LATE AT NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING BRINGS THE THREAT OF
GALES. BETTER OVERALL CHANCES WOULD BE ON THE OCEAN WATERS...BUT
THIS COULD EXPAND TO THE OTHER ZONES. SCA CONDITIONS OTHERWISE PREVAIL
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A RELATIVELY
BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. SCA
CONDITIONS THEN BECOME MORE PROBABLE AS WEDNESDAY PROGRESSES AS A
COASTAL STORM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR 3/4 TO 1 1/3 INCHES OF RAIN FROM SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY EVENING...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AT THIS TIME IS EXPECTED OVER THE NYC METRO
AREA...AND LIGHTEST AMOUNTS OVER FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF SE CT AND
THE TWIN FORKS OF LONG ISLAND. WHILE FOR THE MOST PART NO
SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC IMPACT IS EXPECTED...THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. AREAS THAT
EXPERIENCE THIS...IF ANY DO...COULD EXPERIENCE MINOR FLOODING OF
URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY 24 NOVEMBER...

LOCATION........RECORD/YEAR.....FORECAST HIGH

NEWARK..............75/1979...........70
BRIDGEPORT..........63/1979...........64
CENTRAL PARK........73/1979...........68
LAGUARDIA AIRPORT...68/1999...........69
JFK AIRPORT.........63/2001*..........66
ISLIP...............63/2001...........66

* ALSO OCCURRED IN PREVIOUS YEARS

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT
     FOR ANZ330-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JC
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KALY 221126
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
626 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION
THIS MORNING. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH
AND WEST OF ALBANY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING MILDER AIR TO THE
REGION FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH SOME RAINFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM EST SATURDAY TO 5
AM EST SUNDAY FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY...SCHOHARIE VALLEY...SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...

AS OF 630 AM EST...MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS. IN FACT...SOME OF THE WARMEST TEMPS
ARE CURRENTLY IN THESE NORTHERN AREAS DUE TO THE CLOUDS...IN THE
LOWER 20S...WHILE AREAS ACROSS NW CT AND WESTERN MA ARE AMONG THE
COLDEST...GENERALLY IN THE LOWER/MID TEENS.

SOME SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING FOR AREAS S AND E OF
ALBANY...WHILE SOME HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO EXPAND
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH MID MORNING. CLOUDS ARE
THEN EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON...IN RESPONSE TO INTENSIFYING MID LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S.

IN ADDITION...A PAIR OF MID LEVEL IMPULSES...ONE CURRENTLY ACROSS
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...AND ANOTHER TO THE NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES...WILL PROVIDE ENHANCED DYNAMICAL LIFT AS WELL BY LATE
AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY REGION...WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND AREAS MAINLY W OF THE HUDSON RIVER FROM ALBANY
NORTH BETWEEN 3 AND 5 PM.

FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THAT PRECIP MAY START AS A
SNOW/SLEET MIX ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...AND A SLEET/RAIN MIX IN
LOWER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER...AS SOME WET BULB COOLING
DEVELOPS...THE CHANCES FOR FREEZING RAIN WILL INCREASE AROUND AND
ESP AFTER SUNSET FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY REGION AND AREAS NORTHWARD.
ALSO...DESPITE TEMPS POSSIBLY RISING ABOVE FREEZING TODAY...THE
GROUND WILL REMAIN QUITE COLD...SO IT SHOULD BE FAIRLY EASY FOR
LIGHT ICING TO DEVELOP ON UNTREATED SURFACES.

FURTHER S AND E...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE...THE THREAT FOR
PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH SUNSET FOR AREAS E OF THE
HUDSON RIVER.

TEMPS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 30S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND MID/UPPER 30S FOR VALLEY AREAS. A BRISK SOUTH
WIND IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FROM
ALBANY SOUTH LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL
MAKE CONDITIONS FEEL EVEN COLDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...PRECIPITATION SHOULD EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE FOR AREAS
NEAR AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. SOME LIGHT PRECIP MAY
ALSO OCCASIONALLY REACH AREAS SOUTH OF I-90...INTO THE SE
CATSKILLS...TACONICS AND BERKSHIRES...AND PERHAPS AS FAR S AS THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST
THAT HYDROMETEORS REACHING THE SFC SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF
ICE PELLETS OF LIQUID...BUT FOR MANY AREAS N AND W OF ALBANY...SFC
TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...ALLOWING FOR THE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL.
AGAIN...WITH THE GROUND SO COLD...UNTREATED SURFACES COULD BECOME
RATHER SLIPPERY. THE AREA WHERE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT REPRESENTS THE REGION WITH THE GREATEST PROBABILITY OF
FREEZING RAIN. WILL HAVE TO WATCH RADAR TRENDS AND MESONET SFC
OBS CLOSELY...AS SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN MAY OCCUR EVEN
OUTSIDE THE CURRENT ADVISORY AREAS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
VT AND WESTERN MA. MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE REACHED BETWEEN 10 PM AND 1
AM EST...BEFORE GRADUALLY RISING THEREAFTER.

SUNDAY...THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD PASS NORTH AND EAST OF
THE REGION BY EARLY/MID MORNING...WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL FORCING
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...QUITE A BIT OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION IN THE FORM OF LOW
CLOUDS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. HAVE SIDED
ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS...WITH MAINLY 40S
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH SOME LOWER 50S ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A STRONGER MID LEVEL IMPULSE...CURRENTLY
APPROACHING THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...IS EXPECTED TO DAMPEN AS IT
TRACKS RAPIDLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. STRONG LOW AND MID
LEVEL SOUTH WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IMPULSE WILL ALLOW A BURST
OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION LATE AT
NIGHT. BEFORE THIS OCCURS...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS IN THE
EVENING MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO BRIEFLY DIP INTO THE MID AND UPPER
30S...BEFORE RISING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE RAPIDLY INCREASING
CLOUDS. MODERATE RAIN IS THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...THROUGH DAYBREAK
MONDAY. RAINFALL AMTS OF ONE TO TWO THIRDS OF AN INCH ARE
EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. IN ADDITION...GIVEN
THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL JET TRAVERSING THE REGION LATE AT
NIGHT...WITH THE 00Z/NAM12 SUGGESTING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST H850 WINDS
OF 60-70 KT OVER SW NEW ENGLAND AND SE NY...SOME RATHER WINDY
CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
TACONICS...SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS AND BERKSHIRES...AND POSSIBLY THE
CATSKILLS...WITH SOME WIND GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 40-45 MPH.

MONDAY...RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF RATHER QUICKLY EARLY IN THE MORNING
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. THEREAFTER...IT APPEARS THAT LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF FORCING WILL BE PRESENT IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH
AFTERNOON...AS THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAIN WELL
TO OUR WEST. SO...ALTHOUGH HAVE INDICATED SOME SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS...MUCH OF MONDAY AFTERNOON MAY ACTUALLY REMAIN RAIN FREE.
HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST IN THE FORM OF LOW
CLOUDS IN MOST AREAS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD STILL BECOME RATHER MILD BY
LATE AFTERNOON...GENERALLY REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN
MOST VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 50S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. SHOULD ANY
BREAKS OF SUN DEVELOP...MUCH WARMER MAX TEMPS COULD OCCUR.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS MAINLY DRY AND ENDS MAINLY DRY. IT IS
THE MIDDLE PERIOD OF THE FORECAST PERIOD SURROUNDING THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY WHICH MAKES FOR A TRICKY FORECAST. THE ECMWF
HAS TRACKED FARTHER NORTH AND WEST WITH THE COASTAL LOW THE LAST
COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS AS SURFACE WAVE GETS CAPTURED BY UPPER TROUGH
THE GFS AND GGEM ARE MUCH FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE SURFACE
WAVE THUS THE REASON FOR ONLY GOING WITH CHANCE POPS THIS FAR OUT.
IN ADDITION TO BEING FARTHER OUT TO SEA...BOTH THE GFS AND GGEM HAVE
A MUCH WEAKER SYSTEM. AT 12Z THURSDAY ECMWF HAS A 985 MB LOW ALONG
DOWNEAST MAINE WHEREAS THE GFS HAS A 1004 MB LOW SOUTHEAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA AND THE GGEM IS EVEN WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH A
1007 MB LOW ESSENTIALLY OUT TO SEA. THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WITH ONLY THE ECMWF SHOWING AN
IMPACT ON FA WILL ONLY MENTION A CHANCE OF A STORM POTENTIALLY
IMPACTING THE FA IN THE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY TIME FRAME IN THE
HWO.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD...A COOL DOWN IS IN STORE WITH TEMPS
FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S
NORTHWEST TO LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST...LOWERS 30S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 40S
SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY...UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 40 SOUTHEAST
ON THURSDAY AND UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S ON FRIDAY. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 40S SOUTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT...UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO MID 30S SOUTHEAST TUESDAY
NIGHT....20S TO LOWER 30S WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
UPPER 20S THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT
MIXED PCPN TO THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WITH
MAINLY RAIN AND SLEET EXCEPT FOR FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET AT KGFL
AND KPSF.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS DURING MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z
SUNDAY. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE MOVING IN BETWEEN 13Z-15Z/SAT.
THERE COULD BE SOME SPOTTY SNOW SHOWERS AROUND FROM KALB NORTH AND
EAST AFTER 20Z/SAT...AND THESE WERE ADDRESSED WITH A VCSH FOR
KALB/KGFL/KPSF FOR NOW. THIS EVENING THE PCPN WILL BEGIN AND WHILE
CIGS WL REMAIN VFR...MVFR VSBYS ARE EXPECTED AT KGFL/KALB AND
KPSF. ONCE AGAIN THE PCPN TYPE WL BE MAINLY -RAPL EXCEPT FOR
-FZRAPL AT KGFL AND KPSF.

EXPECT THE WINDS TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 8-12
KTS LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH SOME GUSTS CLOSE
TO 20 KTS AT KALB. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 4 TO 10 KTS
THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL IMPACT THE REGION...MAINLY FOR AREAS
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
BASIN AVERAGE LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF PRECIP WILL BE A QUARTER OF AN
INCH OR LESS...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS. ALONG WITH A MILDER AIR MASS...A MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP
EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY
BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR SO...LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR NYZ032-033-038>042-047-048-082-083.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL








000
FXUS61 KALY 221126
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
626 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION
THIS MORNING. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH
AND WEST OF ALBANY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING MILDER AIR TO THE
REGION FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH SOME RAINFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM EST SATURDAY TO 5
AM EST SUNDAY FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY...SCHOHARIE VALLEY...SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...

AS OF 630 AM EST...MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS. IN FACT...SOME OF THE WARMEST TEMPS
ARE CURRENTLY IN THESE NORTHERN AREAS DUE TO THE CLOUDS...IN THE
LOWER 20S...WHILE AREAS ACROSS NW CT AND WESTERN MA ARE AMONG THE
COLDEST...GENERALLY IN THE LOWER/MID TEENS.

SOME SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING FOR AREAS S AND E OF
ALBANY...WHILE SOME HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO EXPAND
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH MID MORNING. CLOUDS ARE
THEN EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON...IN RESPONSE TO INTENSIFYING MID LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S.

IN ADDITION...A PAIR OF MID LEVEL IMPULSES...ONE CURRENTLY ACROSS
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...AND ANOTHER TO THE NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES...WILL PROVIDE ENHANCED DYNAMICAL LIFT AS WELL BY LATE
AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY REGION...WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND AREAS MAINLY W OF THE HUDSON RIVER FROM ALBANY
NORTH BETWEEN 3 AND 5 PM.

FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THAT PRECIP MAY START AS A
SNOW/SLEET MIX ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...AND A SLEET/RAIN MIX IN
LOWER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER...AS SOME WET BULB COOLING
DEVELOPS...THE CHANCES FOR FREEZING RAIN WILL INCREASE AROUND AND
ESP AFTER SUNSET FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY REGION AND AREAS NORTHWARD.
ALSO...DESPITE TEMPS POSSIBLY RISING ABOVE FREEZING TODAY...THE
GROUND WILL REMAIN QUITE COLD...SO IT SHOULD BE FAIRLY EASY FOR
LIGHT ICING TO DEVELOP ON UNTREATED SURFACES.

FURTHER S AND E...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE...THE THREAT FOR
PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH SUNSET FOR AREAS E OF THE
HUDSON RIVER.

TEMPS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 30S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND MID/UPPER 30S FOR VALLEY AREAS. A BRISK SOUTH
WIND IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FROM
ALBANY SOUTH LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL
MAKE CONDITIONS FEEL EVEN COLDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...PRECIPITATION SHOULD EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE FOR AREAS
NEAR AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. SOME LIGHT PRECIP MAY
ALSO OCCASIONALLY REACH AREAS SOUTH OF I-90...INTO THE SE
CATSKILLS...TACONICS AND BERKSHIRES...AND PERHAPS AS FAR S AS THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST
THAT HYDROMETEORS REACHING THE SFC SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF
ICE PELLETS OF LIQUID...BUT FOR MANY AREAS N AND W OF ALBANY...SFC
TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...ALLOWING FOR THE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL.
AGAIN...WITH THE GROUND SO COLD...UNTREATED SURFACES COULD BECOME
RATHER SLIPPERY. THE AREA WHERE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT REPRESENTS THE REGION WITH THE GREATEST PROBABILITY OF
FREEZING RAIN. WILL HAVE TO WATCH RADAR TRENDS AND MESONET SFC
OBS CLOSELY...AS SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN MAY OCCUR EVEN
OUTSIDE THE CURRENT ADVISORY AREAS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
VT AND WESTERN MA. MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE REACHED BETWEEN 10 PM AND 1
AM EST...BEFORE GRADUALLY RISING THEREAFTER.

SUNDAY...THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD PASS NORTH AND EAST OF
THE REGION BY EARLY/MID MORNING...WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL FORCING
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...QUITE A BIT OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION IN THE FORM OF LOW
CLOUDS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. HAVE SIDED
ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS...WITH MAINLY 40S
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH SOME LOWER 50S ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A STRONGER MID LEVEL IMPULSE...CURRENTLY
APPROACHING THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...IS EXPECTED TO DAMPEN AS IT
TRACKS RAPIDLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. STRONG LOW AND MID
LEVEL SOUTH WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IMPULSE WILL ALLOW A BURST
OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION LATE AT
NIGHT. BEFORE THIS OCCURS...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS IN THE
EVENING MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO BRIEFLY DIP INTO THE MID AND UPPER
30S...BEFORE RISING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE RAPIDLY INCREASING
CLOUDS. MODERATE RAIN IS THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...THROUGH DAYBREAK
MONDAY. RAINFALL AMTS OF ONE TO TWO THIRDS OF AN INCH ARE
EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. IN ADDITION...GIVEN
THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL JET TRAVERSING THE REGION LATE AT
NIGHT...WITH THE 00Z/NAM12 SUGGESTING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST H850 WINDS
OF 60-70 KT OVER SW NEW ENGLAND AND SE NY...SOME RATHER WINDY
CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
TACONICS...SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS AND BERKSHIRES...AND POSSIBLY THE
CATSKILLS...WITH SOME WIND GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 40-45 MPH.

MONDAY...RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF RATHER QUICKLY EARLY IN THE MORNING
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. THEREAFTER...IT APPEARS THAT LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF FORCING WILL BE PRESENT IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH
AFTERNOON...AS THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAIN WELL
TO OUR WEST. SO...ALTHOUGH HAVE INDICATED SOME SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS...MUCH OF MONDAY AFTERNOON MAY ACTUALLY REMAIN RAIN FREE.
HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST IN THE FORM OF LOW
CLOUDS IN MOST AREAS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD STILL BECOME RATHER MILD BY
LATE AFTERNOON...GENERALLY REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN
MOST VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 50S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. SHOULD ANY
BREAKS OF SUN DEVELOP...MUCH WARMER MAX TEMPS COULD OCCUR.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS MAINLY DRY AND ENDS MAINLY DRY. IT IS
THE MIDDLE PERIOD OF THE FORECAST PERIOD SURROUNDING THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY WHICH MAKES FOR A TRICKY FORECAST. THE ECMWF
HAS TRACKED FARTHER NORTH AND WEST WITH THE COASTAL LOW THE LAST
COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS AS SURFACE WAVE GETS CAPTURED BY UPPER TROUGH
THE GFS AND GGEM ARE MUCH FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE SURFACE
WAVE THUS THE REASON FOR ONLY GOING WITH CHANCE POPS THIS FAR OUT.
IN ADDITION TO BEING FARTHER OUT TO SEA...BOTH THE GFS AND GGEM HAVE
A MUCH WEAKER SYSTEM. AT 12Z THURSDAY ECMWF HAS A 985 MB LOW ALONG
DOWNEAST MAINE WHEREAS THE GFS HAS A 1004 MB LOW SOUTHEAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA AND THE GGEM IS EVEN WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH A
1007 MB LOW ESSENTIALLY OUT TO SEA. THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WITH ONLY THE ECMWF SHOWING AN
IMPACT ON FA WILL ONLY MENTION A CHANCE OF A STORM POTENTIALLY
IMPACTING THE FA IN THE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY TIME FRAME IN THE
HWO.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD...A COOL DOWN IS IN STORE WITH TEMPS
FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S
NORTHWEST TO LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST...LOWERS 30S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 40S
SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY...UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 40 SOUTHEAST
ON THURSDAY AND UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S ON FRIDAY. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 40S SOUTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT...UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO MID 30S SOUTHEAST TUESDAY
NIGHT....20S TO LOWER 30S WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
UPPER 20S THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT
MIXED PCPN TO THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WITH
MAINLY RAIN AND SLEET EXCEPT FOR FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET AT KGFL
AND KPSF.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS DURING MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z
SUNDAY. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE MOVING IN BETWEEN 13Z-15Z/SAT.
THERE COULD BE SOME SPOTTY SNOW SHOWERS AROUND FROM KALB NORTH AND
EAST AFTER 20Z/SAT...AND THESE WERE ADDRESSED WITH A VCSH FOR
KALB/KGFL/KPSF FOR NOW. THIS EVENING THE PCPN WILL BEGIN AND WHILE
CIGS WL REMAIN VFR...MVFR VSBYS ARE EXPECTED AT KGFL/KALB AND
KPSF. ONCE AGAIN THE PCPN TYPE WL BE MAINLY -RAPL EXCEPT FOR
-FZRAPL AT KGFL AND KPSF.

EXPECT THE WINDS TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 8-12
KTS LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH SOME GUSTS CLOSE
TO 20 KTS AT KALB. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 4 TO 10 KTS
THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL IMPACT THE REGION...MAINLY FOR AREAS
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
BASIN AVERAGE LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF PRECIP WILL BE A QUARTER OF AN
INCH OR LESS...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS. ALONG WITH A MILDER AIR MASS...A MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP
EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY
BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR SO...LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR NYZ032-033-038>042-047-048-082-083.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL








000
FXUS61 KOKX 221126
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
626 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH TONIGHT...
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE AREA TONIGHT AS
WELL. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY...THEN
LIFTS TO OUR NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT
THEN FOLLOWS BEHIND IT MONDAY NIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD
TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY TRACKS NORTHEAST AS IT
STRENGTHENS...REACHING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THURSDAY. A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THEN LINGERS NEAR THE AREA INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS
IN OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. MAINLY TO TWEAK DOWNWARD
TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING IN NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS.
OVERALL THOUGH...THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

A SHORTWAVE RIDGE EXITS THIS MORNING...LEAVING ZONAL FLOW IN ITS
WAKE ALOFT. WITH NO DISCERNIBLE FORCING EMBEDDED IN THE ZONAL
FLOW...IT SHOULD BE DRY. THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON IN
RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE.

FOR HIGHS TODAY...USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 950 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE NOT QUITE AS COLD AS YESTERDAY...BUT
STILL AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES TO THE NORTH TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD BRING
AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND...WHEN COUPLED WITH SOME WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT...A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT RAIN OR
FREEZING RAIN ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA. FOR NOW
IT APPEARS THAT LOWS ACROSS MAINLY THE FAR NORTHERN TIER OF THE
CWA...AS WELL AS THE W 2/3-3/4 OF ORANGE COUNTY SHOULD BE AT OR
JUST BELOW FREEZING. SO THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN
IN THESE AREAS...IF ANY PRECIPITATION FALLS. AT THIS TIME...THE
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION OCCURRING IS FAR TO LOW - LESS THAN
40 PERCENT TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY - OR EVEN A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT HIGHLIGHTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME GLAZING OF ICE FROM
ORANGE COUNTY ON E ACROSS INTERIOR S CT.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES WAS USED...WITH VALUES EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL.

DEEP LAYERED RIDGING TRANSITS THE AREA SUNDAY...KEEPING THINGS
DRY. AS THE RIDGE EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT...DEEPENING
SE SFC-SW FLOW ALOFT WILL ADVECTING IN ABUNDANT MOISTURE...AND
WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT - THE LIKELIHOOD OF MODERATE
RAINFALL BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL
SUNDAY NIGHT.

FOR HIGHS SUNDAY A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH A MIX DOWN
FROM 975 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES
WAS USED. HIGHS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. FOR LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES WAS USED...WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE 10-15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. LIKELY WILL SEE RISING TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT.

RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS MONDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE
AND 850 WARM FRONTS FINISH LIFTING TO THE NORTH...WITH ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS COMING TO AN END MONDAY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. REFER TO THE HYDROLOGY SECTION OF THE AFD
FOR FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND ANY IMPACTS.

MONDAY WILL END UP BEING VERY MILD...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
LOWER 60S OVER FAR EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA...TO THE UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70 ACROSS THE NYC METRO. THIS IS 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
AND CONSISTENT WITH A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 950-925 HPA PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A BLEND OF MAV/MET
GUIDANCE. RECORD HIGHS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AS A RESULT. REFER
TO THE CLIMATE SECTION OF THE AFD FOR DETAILS.

FOR LOWS MONDAY NIGHT A BLEND OF MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE
WAS USED WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES. VALUES SHOULD BE AROUND

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THERE ARE STILL SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS HANDLING OF
A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO TEXAS
TUESDAY MORNING...AND MORE IMPORTANTLY HOW A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE DIVING DOWN FROM N CENTRAL CANADA INTERACTS WITH THIS
TROUGH IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

THE 00Z ECMWF IS THE STRONGEST WITH THIS NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE...AND HENCE ULTIMATELY DEEPER AND CLOSER TO THE COAST
WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW. THE CMC IS THE SLOWEST WITH THIS
FEATURE AND DOES NOT HAVE MUCH IF ANY PHASING WITH THE FULL
LATITUDE TROUGH...SO ITS LOW IS WEAKER AND FAR ENOUGH OUT TO SEA
THAT THERE WOULD BE LITTLE OR NO IMPACT. THE GFS HAS ABOUT THE
SAME STRENGTH OF THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AS THE CMC...BUT
IS FASTER AND HENCE HAS ENOUGH PHASING WITH THE FULL LATITUDE
TROUGH TO HAVE ITS LOW BE A BIT STRONGER AND CLOSER TO THE COAST
THAN THE CMC. THE 00Z GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS. SO BASED ON THIS...FOR
NOW IT APPEARS THE ECMWF IS AN OUTLIER AND HAVE LEANED MORE
TOWARDS A NON-ECMWF SOLUTION AT THIS TIME.

GIVEN THE GFS TENDENCY TO BE A BIT TO FAR OFFSHORE THIS FAR OUT
IN TIME WITH THESE SORTS OF SYSTEMS...HAVE OPTED FOR A SOLUTION
SIMILAR IN STRENGTH TO THE GFS...BUT SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO THE
COAST...BUT STILL TO THE EAST OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. ADJUSTED
POPS TO BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN 6 HOURLY
PROBABILITY OF 0.05 INCHES OF QPF FROM TUESDAY- THURSDAY...THOUGH
DID GENERALLY CAP AT AROUND 40 PERCENT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.

IT SHOULD BE DRY TUESDAY UNDER SW FLOW ALOFT. A REINFORCING SHOT OF
LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ARRIVES LATE TUESDAY BEHIND A PASSING DRY COLD
FRONT. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP FROM SE TO NW LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE...FOR NOW OFF AND ON IN
NATURE...INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING...THEN TAPER OFF FROM NW TO SE
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN AS LIGHT SNOW
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS AREAS N/W OF NYC...IF IT GETS THAT
FAR INLAND...AND AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS MOST OF S CT...WITH
MAINLY RAIN ELSEWHERE. ALL PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE TO RAIN
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. AS THE LOW DEEPENS AS IT PASSES TO OUR
SE AND E WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ENOUGH LOW LEVEL COLD AIR SHOULD MOVE
IN TO TURN ALL PRECIPITATION OVER TO A LIGHT SNOW. PRECIPITATION
SHOULD TRANSITION BACK OVER TO RAIN THEN RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY AS
THE STORM PULLS AWAY.

ONCE AGAIN...THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL THAT THE STORM STAYS FAR
ENOUGH OUT TO SEE THAT THE AREA RECEIVES NO PRECIPITATION. THERE
IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY THAT A SOLUTION CLOSER TO THE ECMWF
OCCURS...THIS WOULD RESULT IN MORE PRECIPITATION...AND LIKELY MORE
SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA. AT THIS
TIME IT IS TOO EARLY TO SPECULATE ON ANY EXACT IMPACT/EXTENT OF
THIS SYSTEM DUE TO THE LARGE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY ON ITS EXACT
TRACK AND STRENGTH. STAY TUNED.

MODELS ARE STILL DIVERGENT OVER WHAT HAPPENS BEHIND THE
STORM...BUT IT APPEARS MOST LIKELY THAT THERE COULD BE SOME
UNSETTLED WEATHER IN ITS WAKE EITHER DUE TO A LINGERING TROUGH
BEHIND THE LOW...OR ANOTHER WEAK STORM SYSTEM CROSSING THE AREA
LATE IN THE WEEK.

FOR TEMPERATURES TUESDAY-FRIDAY USED A BLEND OF
MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE. BLENDED IN GFS 2-METER
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ECMWF AND GFS
2-METER TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY TO BETTER REFLECT IMPACT OF
EVAPORATIVE COOLING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THE LONG RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH TODAY.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A FEW HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THIS
MORNING...WITH A MID LEVEL DECK MOVING IN LATE AFT/EVE. BRIEF MVFR
CEILINGS POSSIBLE 00Z TO 03Z SUN AT KSWF.

SW WINDS INCREASE THIS MORNING TO 10 TO 15 KT WITH G20KT AFTER
14-15Z. GUSTS END BY 00Z SUN.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUN THROUGH WED...
.SUN...VFR.
.SUN NIGHT-MON...BECOMING MVFR/IFR. POSSIBLY SUB-IFR. RA AND FG
WITH LLWS POSSIBLE.
.MON NIGHT-TUE...VFR.
.WED...MAINLY VFR...ALTHOUGH POSSIBLE RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX MAY
IMPACT THE AREA...ESPECIALLY EAST OF NYC METRO.

&&

.MARINE...
MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS
IN OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR SOUTH TODAY WITH THE GRADIENT TIGHTENING
THIS AFTERNOON. SCA CONDITIONS BECOME LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALL
WATERS EXCEPT THE WESTERN SOUND AND NY HARBOR...BUT A GUST OR TWO UP
TO 25 KT FOR THESE ZONES IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THE GRADIENT
RELAXES TOWARDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE RIDGE PIVOTS THROUGH
THE WATERS. WILL CARRY THE SCA THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOR THE EASTERN
SOUND AND LI BAYS...AND THROUGH THE ENTIRE NIGHT FOR THE OCEAN
WATERS WEST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET. EAST OF THIS...SEAS WILL BE SLOWER
TO SUBSIDE ON A SW FLOW. WAVEWATCH LOOKS A LITTLE TOO HIGH FOR SEAS
HERE CONSIDERING THERE SHOULD BE VERY LITTLE SWELL TO FACTOR IN.
HAVE THEREFORE ENDED SCA HERE AT NOON ON SUNDAY.

WINDS PICK UP AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A STRONG LOW MOVES
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A 60KT+ LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTING
THROUGH LATE AT NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING BRINGS THE THREAT OF
GALES. BETTER OVERALL CHANCES WOULD BE ON THE OCEAN WATERS...BUT
THIS COULD EXPAND TO THE OTHER ZONES. SCA CONDITIONS OTHERWISE PREVAIL
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A RELATIVELY
BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. SCA
CONDITIONS THEN BECOME MORE PROBABLE AS WEDNESDAY PROGRESSES AS A
COASTAL STORM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR 3/4 TO 1 1/3 INCHES OF RAIN FROM SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY EVENING...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AT THIS TIME IS EXPECTED OVER THE NYC METRO
AREA...AND LIGHTEST AMOUNTS OVER FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF SE CT AND
THE TWIN FORKS OF LONG ISLAND. WHILE FOR THE MOST PART NO
SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC IMPACT IS EXPECTED...THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. AREAS THAT
EXPERIENCE THIS...IF ANY DO...COULD EXPERIENCE MINOR FLOODING OF
URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY 24 NOVEMBER...

LOCATION........RECORD/YEAR.....FORECAST HIGH

NEWARK..............75/1979...........70
BRIDGEPORT..........63/1979...........64
CENTRAL PARK........73/1979...........68
LAGUARDIA AIRPORT...68/1999...........69
JFK AIRPORT.........63/2001*..........66
ISLIP...............63/2001...........66

* ALSO OCCURRED IN PREVIOUS YEARS

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT
     FOR ANZ330-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JC
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT
CLIMATE...






000
FXUS61 KALY 221104
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
604 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION
THIS MORNING. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH
AND WEST OF ALBANY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING MILDER AIR TO THE
REGION FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH SOME RAINFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM EST SATURDAY TO 5
AM EST SUNDAY FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY...SCHOHARIE VALLEY...SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...

AS OF 4 AM EST...PATCHY LOW CLOUDS ARE LINGERING ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS. THESE
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY ERODE OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS.

OTHERWISE...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE IN PLACE...AS TEMPS HAVE DIPPED
INTO THE TEENS IN MANY AREAS.

FOR TODAY...SOME SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING...ESP FOR AREAS
S AND E OF ALBANY...WHILE SOME HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS BEGIN TO
EXPAND BACK ACROSS WESTERN AREAS BY MID MORNING. CLOUDS ARE THEN
EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM W TO E ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON...IN RESPONSE TO INTENSIFYING MID LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S.

IN ADDITION...A PAIR OF MID LEVEL IMPULSES...ONE CURRENTLY ACROSS
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...AND ANOTHER TO THE NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES...WILL PROVIDE ENHANCED DYNAMICAL LIFT AS WELL BY LATE
AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY REGION...WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND AREAS MAINLY W OF THE HUDSON RIVER FROM ALBANY
NORTH TOWARD AND AFTER SUNSET...ALTHOUGH COULD REACH FAR WESTERN
AREAS AS EARLY AS 3 OR 4 PM.

FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THAT PRECIP MAY START AS A
SNOW/SLEET MIX ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...AND A SLEET/RAIN MIX IN
LOWER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER...AS SOME WET BULB COOLING
DEVELOPS...THE CHANCES FOR FREEZING RAIN WILL INCREASE AROUND AND
ESP AFTER SUNSET FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY REGION AND AREAS NORTHWARD.
ALSO...DESPITE TEMPS POSSIBLY RISING ABOVE FREEZING TODAY...THE
GROUND WILL REMAIN QUITE COLD...SO IT SHOULD BE FAIRLY EASY FOR
LIGHT ICING TO DEVELOP ON UNTREATED SURFACES.

FURTHER S AND E...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE...THE THREAT FOR
PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH SUNSET FOR AREAS E OF THE
HUDSON RIVER.

TEMPS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 30S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND MID/UPPER 30S FOR VALLEY AREAS. A BRISK SOUTH
WIND IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FROM
ALBANY SOUTH LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL
MAKE CONDITIONS FEEL EVEN COLDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...PRECIPITATION SHOULD EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE FOR AREAS
NEAR AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. SOME LIGHT PRECIP MAY
ALSO OCCASIONALLY REACH AREAS SOUTH OF I-90...INTO THE SE
CATSKILLS...TACONICS AND BERKSHIRES...AND PERHAPS AS FAR S AS THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST
THAT HYDROMETEORS REACHING THE SFC SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF
ICE PELLETS OF LIQUID...BUT FOR MANY AREAS N AND W OF ALBANY...SFC
TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...ALLOWING FOR THE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL.
AGAIN...WITH THE GROUND SO COLD...UNTREATED SURFACES COULD BECOME
RATHER SLIPPERY. THE AREA WHERE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT REPRESENTS THE REGION WITH THE GREATEST PROBABILITY OF
FREEZING RAIN. WILL HAVE TO WATCH RADAR TRENDS AND MESONET SFC
OBS CLOSELY...AS SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN MAY OCCUR EVEN
OUTSIDE THE CURRENT ADVISORY AREAS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
VT AND WESTERN MA. MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE REACHED BETWEEN 10 PM AND 1
AM EST...BEFORE GRADUALLY RISING THEREAFTER.

SUNDAY...THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD PASS NORTH AND EAST OF
THE REGION BY EARLY/MID MORNING...WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL FORCING
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...QUITE A BIT OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION IN THE FORM OF LOW
CLOUDS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. HAVE SIDED
ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS...WITH MAINLY 40S
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH SOME LOWER 50S ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A STRONGER MID LEVEL IMPULSE...CURRENTLY
APPROACHING THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...IS EXPECTED TO DAMPEN AS IT
TRACKS RAPIDLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. STRONG LOW AND MID
LEVEL SOUTH WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IMPULSE WILL ALLOW A BURST
OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION LATE AT
NIGHT. BEFORE THIS OCCURS...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS IN THE
EVENING MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO BRIEFLY DIP INTO THE MID AND UPPER
30S...BEFORE RISING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE RAPIDLY INCREASING
CLOUDS. MODERATE RAIN IS THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...THROUGH DAYBREAK
MONDAY. RAINFALL AMTS OF ONE TO TWO THIRDS OF AN INCH ARE
EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. IN ADDITION...GIVEN
THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL JET TRAVERSING THE REGION LATE AT
NIGHT...WITH THE 00Z/NAM12 SUGGESTING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST H850 WINDS
OF 60-70 KT OVER SW NEW ENGLAND AND SE NY...SOME RATHER WINDY
CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
TACONICS...SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS AND BERKSHIRES...AND POSSIBLY THE
CATSKILLS...WITH SOME WIND GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 40-45 MPH.

MONDAY...RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF RATHER QUICKLY EARLY IN THE MORNING
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. THEREAFTER...IT APPEARS THAT LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF FORCING WILL BE PRESENT IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH
AFTERNOON...AS THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAIN WELL
TO OUR WEST. SO...ALTHOUGH HAVE INDICATED SOME SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS...MUCH OF MONDAY AFTERNOON MAY ACTUALLY REMAIN RAIN FREE.
HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST IN THE FORM OF LOW
CLOUDS IN MOST AREAS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD STILL BECOME RATHER MILD BY
LATE AFTERNOON...GENERALLY REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN
MOST VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 50S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. SHOULD ANY
BREAKS OF SUN DEVELOP...MUCH WARMER MAX TEMPS COULD OCCUR.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS MAINLY DRY AND ENDS MAINLY DRY. IT IS
THE MIDDLE PERIOD OF THE FORECAST PERIOD SURROUNDING THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY WHICH MAKES FOR A TRICKY FORECAST. THE ECMWF
HAS TRACKED FARTHER NORTH AND WEST WITH THE COASTAL LOW THE LAST
COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS AS SURFACE WAVE GETS CAPTURED BY UPPER TROUGH
THE GFS AND GGEM ARE MUCH FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE SURFACE
WAVE THUS THE REASON FOR ONLY GOING WITH CHANCE POPS THIS FAR OUT.
IN ADDITION TO BEING FARTHER OUT TO SEA...BOTH THE GFS AND GGEM HAVE
A MUCH WEAKER SYSTEM. AT 12Z THURSDAY ECMWF HAS A 985 MB LOW ALONG
DOWNEAST MAINE WHEREAS THE GFS HAS A 1004 MB LOW SOUTHEAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA AND THE GGEM IS EVEN WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH A
1007 MB LOW ESSENTIALLY OUT TO SEA. THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WITH ONLY THE ECMWF SHOWING AN
IMPACT ON FA WILL ONLY MENTION A CHANCE OF A STORM POTENTIALLY
IMPACTING THE FA IN THE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY TIME FRAME IN THE
HWO.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD...A COOL DOWN IS IN STORE WITH TEMPS
FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S
NORTHWEST TO LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST...LOWERS 30S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 40S
SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY...UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 40 SOUTHEAST
ON THURSDAY AND UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S ON FRIDAY. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 40S SOUTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT...UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO MID 30S SOUTHEAST TUESDAY
NIGHT....20S TO LOWER 30S WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
UPPER 20S THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT
MIXED PCPN TO THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WITH
MAINLY RAIN AND SLEET EXCEPT FOR FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET AT KGFL
AND KPSF.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS DURING MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z
SUNDAY. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE MOVING IN BETWEEN 13Z-15Z/SAT.
THERE COULD BE SOME SPOTTY SNOW SHOWERS AROUND FROM KALB NORTH AND
EAST AFTER 20Z/SAT...AND THESE WERE ADDRESSED WITH A VCSH FOR
KALB/KGFL/KPSF FOR NOW. THIS EVENING THE PCPN WILL BEGIN AND WHILE
CIGS WL REMAIN VFR...MVFR VSBYS ARE EXPECTED AT KGFL/KALB AND
KPSF. ONCE AGAIN THE PCPN TYPE WL BE MAINLY -RAPL EXCEPT FOR
-FZRAPL AT KGFL AND KPSF.

EXPECT THE WINDS TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 8-12
KTS LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH SOME GUSTS CLOSE
TO 20 KTS AT KALB. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 4 TO 10 KTS
THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL IMPACT THE REGION...MAINLY FOR AREAS
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
BASIN AVERAGE LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF PRECIP WILL BE A QUARTER OF AN
INCH OR LESS...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS. ALONG WITH A MILDER AIR MASS...A MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP
EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY
BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR SO...LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR NYZ032-033-038>042-047-048-082-083.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL








000
FXUS61 KALY 221104
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
604 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION
THIS MORNING. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH
AND WEST OF ALBANY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING MILDER AIR TO THE
REGION FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH SOME RAINFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM EST SATURDAY TO 5
AM EST SUNDAY FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY...SCHOHARIE VALLEY...SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...

AS OF 4 AM EST...PATCHY LOW CLOUDS ARE LINGERING ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS. THESE
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY ERODE OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS.

OTHERWISE...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE IN PLACE...AS TEMPS HAVE DIPPED
INTO THE TEENS IN MANY AREAS.

FOR TODAY...SOME SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING...ESP FOR AREAS
S AND E OF ALBANY...WHILE SOME HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS BEGIN TO
EXPAND BACK ACROSS WESTERN AREAS BY MID MORNING. CLOUDS ARE THEN
EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM W TO E ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON...IN RESPONSE TO INTENSIFYING MID LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S.

IN ADDITION...A PAIR OF MID LEVEL IMPULSES...ONE CURRENTLY ACROSS
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...AND ANOTHER TO THE NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES...WILL PROVIDE ENHANCED DYNAMICAL LIFT AS WELL BY LATE
AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY REGION...WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND AREAS MAINLY W OF THE HUDSON RIVER FROM ALBANY
NORTH TOWARD AND AFTER SUNSET...ALTHOUGH COULD REACH FAR WESTERN
AREAS AS EARLY AS 3 OR 4 PM.

FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THAT PRECIP MAY START AS A
SNOW/SLEET MIX ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...AND A SLEET/RAIN MIX IN
LOWER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER...AS SOME WET BULB COOLING
DEVELOPS...THE CHANCES FOR FREEZING RAIN WILL INCREASE AROUND AND
ESP AFTER SUNSET FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY REGION AND AREAS NORTHWARD.
ALSO...DESPITE TEMPS POSSIBLY RISING ABOVE FREEZING TODAY...THE
GROUND WILL REMAIN QUITE COLD...SO IT SHOULD BE FAIRLY EASY FOR
LIGHT ICING TO DEVELOP ON UNTREATED SURFACES.

FURTHER S AND E...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE...THE THREAT FOR
PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH SUNSET FOR AREAS E OF THE
HUDSON RIVER.

TEMPS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 30S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND MID/UPPER 30S FOR VALLEY AREAS. A BRISK SOUTH
WIND IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FROM
ALBANY SOUTH LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL
MAKE CONDITIONS FEEL EVEN COLDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...PRECIPITATION SHOULD EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE FOR AREAS
NEAR AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. SOME LIGHT PRECIP MAY
ALSO OCCASIONALLY REACH AREAS SOUTH OF I-90...INTO THE SE
CATSKILLS...TACONICS AND BERKSHIRES...AND PERHAPS AS FAR S AS THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST
THAT HYDROMETEORS REACHING THE SFC SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF
ICE PELLETS OF LIQUID...BUT FOR MANY AREAS N AND W OF ALBANY...SFC
TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...ALLOWING FOR THE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL.
AGAIN...WITH THE GROUND SO COLD...UNTREATED SURFACES COULD BECOME
RATHER SLIPPERY. THE AREA WHERE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT REPRESENTS THE REGION WITH THE GREATEST PROBABILITY OF
FREEZING RAIN. WILL HAVE TO WATCH RADAR TRENDS AND MESONET SFC
OBS CLOSELY...AS SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN MAY OCCUR EVEN
OUTSIDE THE CURRENT ADVISORY AREAS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
VT AND WESTERN MA. MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE REACHED BETWEEN 10 PM AND 1
AM EST...BEFORE GRADUALLY RISING THEREAFTER.

SUNDAY...THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD PASS NORTH AND EAST OF
THE REGION BY EARLY/MID MORNING...WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL FORCING
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...QUITE A BIT OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION IN THE FORM OF LOW
CLOUDS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. HAVE SIDED
ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS...WITH MAINLY 40S
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH SOME LOWER 50S ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A STRONGER MID LEVEL IMPULSE...CURRENTLY
APPROACHING THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...IS EXPECTED TO DAMPEN AS IT
TRACKS RAPIDLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. STRONG LOW AND MID
LEVEL SOUTH WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IMPULSE WILL ALLOW A BURST
OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION LATE AT
NIGHT. BEFORE THIS OCCURS...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS IN THE
EVENING MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO BRIEFLY DIP INTO THE MID AND UPPER
30S...BEFORE RISING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE RAPIDLY INCREASING
CLOUDS. MODERATE RAIN IS THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...THROUGH DAYBREAK
MONDAY. RAINFALL AMTS OF ONE TO TWO THIRDS OF AN INCH ARE
EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. IN ADDITION...GIVEN
THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL JET TRAVERSING THE REGION LATE AT
NIGHT...WITH THE 00Z/NAM12 SUGGESTING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST H850 WINDS
OF 60-70 KT OVER SW NEW ENGLAND AND SE NY...SOME RATHER WINDY
CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
TACONICS...SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS AND BERKSHIRES...AND POSSIBLY THE
CATSKILLS...WITH SOME WIND GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 40-45 MPH.

MONDAY...RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF RATHER QUICKLY EARLY IN THE MORNING
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. THEREAFTER...IT APPEARS THAT LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF FORCING WILL BE PRESENT IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH
AFTERNOON...AS THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAIN WELL
TO OUR WEST. SO...ALTHOUGH HAVE INDICATED SOME SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS...MUCH OF MONDAY AFTERNOON MAY ACTUALLY REMAIN RAIN FREE.
HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST IN THE FORM OF LOW
CLOUDS IN MOST AREAS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD STILL BECOME RATHER MILD BY
LATE AFTERNOON...GENERALLY REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN
MOST VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 50S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. SHOULD ANY
BREAKS OF SUN DEVELOP...MUCH WARMER MAX TEMPS COULD OCCUR.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS MAINLY DRY AND ENDS MAINLY DRY. IT IS
THE MIDDLE PERIOD OF THE FORECAST PERIOD SURROUNDING THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY WHICH MAKES FOR A TRICKY FORECAST. THE ECMWF
HAS TRACKED FARTHER NORTH AND WEST WITH THE COASTAL LOW THE LAST
COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS AS SURFACE WAVE GETS CAPTURED BY UPPER TROUGH
THE GFS AND GGEM ARE MUCH FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE SURFACE
WAVE THUS THE REASON FOR ONLY GOING WITH CHANCE POPS THIS FAR OUT.
IN ADDITION TO BEING FARTHER OUT TO SEA...BOTH THE GFS AND GGEM HAVE
A MUCH WEAKER SYSTEM. AT 12Z THURSDAY ECMWF HAS A 985 MB LOW ALONG
DOWNEAST MAINE WHEREAS THE GFS HAS A 1004 MB LOW SOUTHEAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA AND THE GGEM IS EVEN WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH A
1007 MB LOW ESSENTIALLY OUT TO SEA. THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WITH ONLY THE ECMWF SHOWING AN
IMPACT ON FA WILL ONLY MENTION A CHANCE OF A STORM POTENTIALLY
IMPACTING THE FA IN THE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY TIME FRAME IN THE
HWO.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD...A COOL DOWN IS IN STORE WITH TEMPS
FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S
NORTHWEST TO LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST...LOWERS 30S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 40S
SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY...UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 40 SOUTHEAST
ON THURSDAY AND UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S ON FRIDAY. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 40S SOUTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT...UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO MID 30S SOUTHEAST TUESDAY
NIGHT....20S TO LOWER 30S WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
UPPER 20S THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT
MIXED PCPN TO THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WITH
MAINLY RAIN AND SLEET EXCEPT FOR FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET AT KGFL
AND KPSF.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS DURING MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z
SUNDAY. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE MOVING IN BETWEEN 13Z-15Z/SAT.
THERE COULD BE SOME SPOTTY SNOW SHOWERS AROUND FROM KALB NORTH AND
EAST AFTER 20Z/SAT...AND THESE WERE ADDRESSED WITH A VCSH FOR
KALB/KGFL/KPSF FOR NOW. THIS EVENING THE PCPN WILL BEGIN AND WHILE
CIGS WL REMAIN VFR...MVFR VSBYS ARE EXPECTED AT KGFL/KALB AND
KPSF. ONCE AGAIN THE PCPN TYPE WL BE MAINLY -RAPL EXCEPT FOR
-FZRAPL AT KGFL AND KPSF.

EXPECT THE WINDS TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 8-12
KTS LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH SOME GUSTS CLOSE
TO 20 KTS AT KALB. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 4 TO 10 KTS
THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL IMPACT THE REGION...MAINLY FOR AREAS
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
BASIN AVERAGE LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF PRECIP WILL BE A QUARTER OF AN
INCH OR LESS...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS. ALONG WITH A MILDER AIR MASS...A MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP
EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY
BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR SO...LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR NYZ032-033-038>042-047-048-082-083.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL







000
FXUS61 KOKX 221019 CCA
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
516 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH
TONIGHT...MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE AREA
TONIGHT AS WELL. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST
SUNDAY...THEN LIFTS TO OUR NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.
A COLD FRONT THEN FOLLOWS BEHIND IT MONDAY NIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD
TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY TRACKS NORTHEAST AS IT
STRENGTHENS...REACHING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THURSDAY. A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THEN LINGERS NEAR THE AREA INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SHORTWAVE RIDGE EXITS THIS MORNING...LEAVING ZONAL FLOW IN ITS
WAKE ALOFT. WITH NO DISCERNIBLE FORCING EMBEDDED IN THE ZONAL
FLOW...IT SHOULD BE DRY. THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON IN
RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE.

FOR HIGHS TODAY...USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 950 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE NOT QUITE AS COLD AS YESTERDAY...BUT
STILL AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES TO THE NORTH TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD BRING AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND...WHEN COUPLED WITH SOME WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT...A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT RAIN OR
FREEZING RAIN ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA. FOR NOW
IT APPEARS THAT LOWS ACROSS MAINLY THE FAR NORTHERN TIER OF THE
CWA...AS WELL AS THE W 2/3-3/4 OF ORANGE COUNTY SHOULD BE AT OR
JUST BELOW FREEZING. SO THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN
IN THESE AREAS...IF ANY PRECIPITATION FALLS. AT THIS TIME...THE
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION OCCURRING IS FAR TO LOW - LESS THAN 40
PERCENT TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY - OR EVEN A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT HIGHLIGHTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME GLAZING OF ICE FROM
ORANGE COUNTY ON E ACROSS INTERIOR S CT.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES WAS USED...WITH VALUES EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL.

DEEP LAYERED RIDGING TRANSITS THE AREA SUNDAY...KEEPING THINGS
DRY. AS THE RIDGE EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT...DEEPENING
SE SFC-SW FLOW ALOFT WILL ADVECTING IN ABUNDANT MOISTURE...AND
WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT - THE LIKELIHOOD OF MODERATE
RAINFALL BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL
SUNDAY NIGHT.

FOR HIGHS SUNDAY A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH A MIX DOWN
FROM 975 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES
WAS USED. HIGHS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. FOR LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES WAS USED...WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE 10-15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. LIKELY WILL SEE RISING TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT.

RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS MONDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE AND
850 WARM FRONTS FINISH LIFTING TO THE NORTH...WITH ANY LINGERING
SHOWERS COMING TO AN END MONDAY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. REFER TO THE HYDROLOGY SECTION OF THE AFD FOR
FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND ANY IMPACTS.

MONDAY WILL END UP BEING VERY MILD...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
LOWER 60S OVER FAR EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA...TO THE UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70 ACROSS THE NYC METRO. THIS IS 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
AND CONSISTENT WITH A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 950-925 HPA PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A BLEND OF MAV/MET
GUIDANCE. RECORD HIGHS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AS A RESULT. REFER
TO THE CLIMATE SECTION OF THE AFD FOR DETAILS.

FOR LOWS MONDAY NIGHT A BLEND OF MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE
WAS USED WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES. VALUES SHOULD BE AROUND

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THERE ARE STILL SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS HANDLING OF
A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO TEXAS
TUESDAY MORNING...AND MORE IMPORTANTLY HOW A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE DIVING DOWN FROM N CENTRAL CANADA INTERACTS WITH THIS
TROUGH IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

THE 00Z ECMWF IS THE STRONGEST WITH THIS NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE...AND HENCE ULTIMATELY DEEPER AND CLOSER TO THE COAST
WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW. THE CMC IS THE SLOWEST WITH THIS
FEATURE AND DOES NOT HAVE MUCH IF ANY PHASING WITH THE FULL
LATITUDE TROUGH...SO ITS LOW IS WEAKER AND FAR ENOUGH OUT TO SEA
THAT THERE WOULD BE LITTLE OR NO IMPACT. THE GFS HAS ABOUT THE
SAME STRENGTH OF THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AS THE CMC...BUT IS
FASTER AND HENCE HAS ENOUGH PHASING WITH THE FULL LATITUDE TROUGH
TO HAVE ITS LOW BE A BIT STRONGER AND CLOSER TO THE COAST THAN THE
CMC. THE GEFS MEAN IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
OPERATIONAL GFS. SO BASED ON THIS...FOR NOW IT APPEARS THE ECMWF
IS AN OUTLIER AND HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARDS A NON-ECMWF SOLUTION AT
THIS TIME.

GIVEN THE GFS TENDENCY TO BE A BIT TO FAR OFFSHORE THIS FAR OUT
IN TIME WITH THESE SORTS OF SYSTEMS...HAVE OPTED FOR A SOLUTION
SIMILAR IN STRENGTH TO THE GFS...BUT SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO THE
COAST...BUT STILL TO THE EAST OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. ADJUSTED
POPS TO BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN 6 HOURLY
PROBABILITY OF 0.05 INCHES OF QPF FROM TUESDAY- THURSDAY...THOUGH
DID GENERALLY CAP AT AROUND 40 PERCENT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.

IT SHOULD BE DRY TUESDAY UNDER SW FLOW ALOFT. A REINFORCING SHOT OF
LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ARRIVES LATE TUESDAY BEHIND A PASSING DRY COLD
FRONT. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP FROM SE TO NW LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE...FOR NOW OFF AND ON IN
NATURE...INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING...THEN TAPER OFF FROM NW TO SE
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN AS LIGHT SNOW
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS AREAS N/W OF NYC...IF IT GETS THAT
FAR INLAND...AND AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS MOST OF S CT...WITH
MAINLY RAIN ELSEWHERE. ALL PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE TO RAIN
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. AS THE LOW DEEPENS AS IT PASSES TO OUR
SE AND E WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ENOUGH LOW LEVEL COLD AIR SHOULD MOVE
IN TO TURN ALL PRECIPITATION OVER TO A LIGHT SNOW. PRECIPITATION
SHOULD TRANSITION BACK OVER TO RAIN THEN RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY AS
THE STORM PULLS AWAY.

ONCE AGAIN...THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL THAT THE STORM STAYS FAR
ENOUGH OUT TO SEE THAT THE AREA RECEIVES NO PRECIPITATION. THERE
IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY THAT A SOLUTION CLOSER TO THE ECMWF
OCCURS...THIS WOULD RESULT IN MORE PRECIPITATION...AND LIKELY MORE
SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA. AT THIS
TIME IT IS TOO EARLY TO SPECULATE ON ANY EXACT IMPACT/EXTENT OF
THIS SYSTEM DUE TO THE LARGE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY ON ITS EXACT
TRACK AND STRENGTH. STAY TUNED.

MODELS ARE STILL DIVERGENT OVER WHAT HAPPENS BEHIND THE
STORM...BUT IT APPEARS MOST LIKELY THAT THERE COULD BE SOME
UNSETTLED WEATHER IN ITS WAKE EITHER DUE TO A LINGERING TROUGH
BEHIND THE LOW...OR ANOTHER WEAK STORM SYSTEM CROSSING THE AREA
LATE IN THE WEEK.

FOR TEMPERATURES TUESDAY-FRIDAY USED A BLEND OF
MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE. BLENDED IN GFS 2-METER
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ECMWF AND GFS
2-METER TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY TO BETTER REFLECT IMPACT OF
EVAPORATIVE COOLING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THE LONG RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH TODAY.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH
THIS MORNING...WITH A MID LEVEL DECK MOVING IN LATE AFT/EVE.
BRIEF MVFR CIG POSSIBLE 00Z TO 03Z SUN AT KSWF.

WSW WINDS AT LESS THAN 8 KT THRU EARLY MORNING...THEN BACKING
SLIGHTLY AND INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KT WITH G20KT AFTER 14-15Z.
GUSTS LOST BY 00Z SUN.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUN THROUGH WED...
.SUN...VFR.
.SUN NIGHT-MON...BECOMING MVFR/IFR. POSSIBLY SUB-IFR. RA AND FG
WITH LLWS POSSIBLE.
.MON NIGHT-TUE...VFR.
.WED...MAINLY VFR...ALTHOUGH POSSIBLE RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX MAY
IMPACT THE AREA...ESPECIALLY EAST OF NYC METRO.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR SOUTH TODAY WITH THE GRADIENT TIGHTENING
THIS AFTERNOON. SCA CONDITIONS BECOME LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALL
WATERS EXCEPT THE WESTERN SOUND AND NY HARBOR...BUT A GUST OR TWO UP
TO 25 KT FOR THESE ZONES IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THE GRADIENT
RELAXES TOWARDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE RIDGE PIVOTS THROUGH
THE WATERS. WILL CARRY THE SCA THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOR THE EASTERN
SOUND AND LI BAYS...AND THROUGH THE ENTIRE NIGHT FOR THE OCEAN
WATERS WEST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET. EAST OF THIS...SEAS WILL BE SLOWER
TO SUBSIDE ON A SW FLOW. WAVEWATCH LOOKS A LITTLE TOO HIGH FOR SEAS
HERE CONSIDERING THERE SHOULD BE VERY LITTLE SWELL TO FACTOR IN.
HAVE THEREFORE ENDED SCA HERE AT NOON ON SUNDAY.

WINDS PICK UP AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A STRONG LOW MOVES
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A 60KT+ LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTING
THROUGH LATE AT NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING BRINGS THE THREAT OF
GALES. BETTER OVERALL CHANCES WOULD BE ON THE OCEAN WATERS...BUT
THIS COULD EXPAND TO THE OTHER ZONES. SCA CONDITIONS OTHERWISE PREVAIL
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A RELATIVELY
BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. SCA
CONDITIONS THEN BECOME MORE PROBABLE AS WEDNESDAY PROGRESSES AS A
COASTAL STORM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR 3/4 TO 1 1/3 INCHES OF RAIN FROM SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY EVENING...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AT THIS TIME IS EXPECTED OVER THE NYC METRO
AREA...AND LIGHTEST AMOUNTS OVER FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF SE CT AND
THE TWIN FORKS OF LONG ISLAND. WHILE FOR THE MOST PART NO
SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC IMPACT IS EXPECTED...THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. AREAS THAT
EXPERIENCE THIS...IF ANY DO...COULD EXPERIENCE MINOR FLOODING OF
URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY 24 NOVEMBER...

LOCATION........RECORD/YEAR.....FORECAST HIGH

NEWARK..............75/1979...........70
BRIDGEPORT..........63/1979...........64
CENTRAL PARK........73/1979...........68
LAGUARDIA AIRPORT...68/1999...........69
JFK AIRPORT.........63/2001*..........66
ISLIP...............63/2001...........66

* ALSO OCCURRED IN PREVIOUS YEARS

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT
     FOR ANZ330-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JC
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT





000
FXUS61 KOKX 221019 CCA
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
516 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH
TONIGHT...MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE AREA
TONIGHT AS WELL. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST
SUNDAY...THEN LIFTS TO OUR NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.
A COLD FRONT THEN FOLLOWS BEHIND IT MONDAY NIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD
TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY TRACKS NORTHEAST AS IT
STRENGTHENS...REACHING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THURSDAY. A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THEN LINGERS NEAR THE AREA INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SHORTWAVE RIDGE EXITS THIS MORNING...LEAVING ZONAL FLOW IN ITS
WAKE ALOFT. WITH NO DISCERNIBLE FORCING EMBEDDED IN THE ZONAL
FLOW...IT SHOULD BE DRY. THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON IN
RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE.

FOR HIGHS TODAY...USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 950 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE NOT QUITE AS COLD AS YESTERDAY...BUT
STILL AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES TO THE NORTH TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD BRING AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND...WHEN COUPLED WITH SOME WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT...A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT RAIN OR
FREEZING RAIN ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA. FOR NOW
IT APPEARS THAT LOWS ACROSS MAINLY THE FAR NORTHERN TIER OF THE
CWA...AS WELL AS THE W 2/3-3/4 OF ORANGE COUNTY SHOULD BE AT OR
JUST BELOW FREEZING. SO THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN
IN THESE AREAS...IF ANY PRECIPITATION FALLS. AT THIS TIME...THE
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION OCCURRING IS FAR TO LOW - LESS THAN 40
PERCENT TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY - OR EVEN A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT HIGHLIGHTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME GLAZING OF ICE FROM
ORANGE COUNTY ON E ACROSS INTERIOR S CT.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES WAS USED...WITH VALUES EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL.

DEEP LAYERED RIDGING TRANSITS THE AREA SUNDAY...KEEPING THINGS
DRY. AS THE RIDGE EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT...DEEPENING
SE SFC-SW FLOW ALOFT WILL ADVECTING IN ABUNDANT MOISTURE...AND
WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT - THE LIKELIHOOD OF MODERATE
RAINFALL BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL
SUNDAY NIGHT.

FOR HIGHS SUNDAY A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH A MIX DOWN
FROM 975 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES
WAS USED. HIGHS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. FOR LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES WAS USED...WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE 10-15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. LIKELY WILL SEE RISING TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT.

RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS MONDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE AND
850 WARM FRONTS FINISH LIFTING TO THE NORTH...WITH ANY LINGERING
SHOWERS COMING TO AN END MONDAY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. REFER TO THE HYDROLOGY SECTION OF THE AFD FOR
FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND ANY IMPACTS.

MONDAY WILL END UP BEING VERY MILD...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
LOWER 60S OVER FAR EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA...TO THE UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70 ACROSS THE NYC METRO. THIS IS 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
AND CONSISTENT WITH A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 950-925 HPA PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A BLEND OF MAV/MET
GUIDANCE. RECORD HIGHS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AS A RESULT. REFER
TO THE CLIMATE SECTION OF THE AFD FOR DETAILS.

FOR LOWS MONDAY NIGHT A BLEND OF MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE
WAS USED WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES. VALUES SHOULD BE AROUND

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THERE ARE STILL SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS HANDLING OF
A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO TEXAS
TUESDAY MORNING...AND MORE IMPORTANTLY HOW A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE DIVING DOWN FROM N CENTRAL CANADA INTERACTS WITH THIS
TROUGH IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

THE 00Z ECMWF IS THE STRONGEST WITH THIS NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE...AND HENCE ULTIMATELY DEEPER AND CLOSER TO THE COAST
WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW. THE CMC IS THE SLOWEST WITH THIS
FEATURE AND DOES NOT HAVE MUCH IF ANY PHASING WITH THE FULL
LATITUDE TROUGH...SO ITS LOW IS WEAKER AND FAR ENOUGH OUT TO SEA
THAT THERE WOULD BE LITTLE OR NO IMPACT. THE GFS HAS ABOUT THE
SAME STRENGTH OF THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AS THE CMC...BUT IS
FASTER AND HENCE HAS ENOUGH PHASING WITH THE FULL LATITUDE TROUGH
TO HAVE ITS LOW BE A BIT STRONGER AND CLOSER TO THE COAST THAN THE
CMC. THE GEFS MEAN IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
OPERATIONAL GFS. SO BASED ON THIS...FOR NOW IT APPEARS THE ECMWF
IS AN OUTLIER AND HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARDS A NON-ECMWF SOLUTION AT
THIS TIME.

GIVEN THE GFS TENDENCY TO BE A BIT TO FAR OFFSHORE THIS FAR OUT
IN TIME WITH THESE SORTS OF SYSTEMS...HAVE OPTED FOR A SOLUTION
SIMILAR IN STRENGTH TO THE GFS...BUT SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO THE
COAST...BUT STILL TO THE EAST OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. ADJUSTED
POPS TO BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN 6 HOURLY
PROBABILITY OF 0.05 INCHES OF QPF FROM TUESDAY- THURSDAY...THOUGH
DID GENERALLY CAP AT AROUND 40 PERCENT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.

IT SHOULD BE DRY TUESDAY UNDER SW FLOW ALOFT. A REINFORCING SHOT OF
LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ARRIVES LATE TUESDAY BEHIND A PASSING DRY COLD
FRONT. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP FROM SE TO NW LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE...FOR NOW OFF AND ON IN
NATURE...INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING...THEN TAPER OFF FROM NW TO SE
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN AS LIGHT SNOW
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS AREAS N/W OF NYC...IF IT GETS THAT
FAR INLAND...AND AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS MOST OF S CT...WITH
MAINLY RAIN ELSEWHERE. ALL PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE TO RAIN
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. AS THE LOW DEEPENS AS IT PASSES TO OUR
SE AND E WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ENOUGH LOW LEVEL COLD AIR SHOULD MOVE
IN TO TURN ALL PRECIPITATION OVER TO A LIGHT SNOW. PRECIPITATION
SHOULD TRANSITION BACK OVER TO RAIN THEN RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY AS
THE STORM PULLS AWAY.

ONCE AGAIN...THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL THAT THE STORM STAYS FAR
ENOUGH OUT TO SEE THAT THE AREA RECEIVES NO PRECIPITATION. THERE
IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY THAT A SOLUTION CLOSER TO THE ECMWF
OCCURS...THIS WOULD RESULT IN MORE PRECIPITATION...AND LIKELY MORE
SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA. AT THIS
TIME IT IS TOO EARLY TO SPECULATE ON ANY EXACT IMPACT/EXTENT OF
THIS SYSTEM DUE TO THE LARGE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY ON ITS EXACT
TRACK AND STRENGTH. STAY TUNED.

MODELS ARE STILL DIVERGENT OVER WHAT HAPPENS BEHIND THE
STORM...BUT IT APPEARS MOST LIKELY THAT THERE COULD BE SOME
UNSETTLED WEATHER IN ITS WAKE EITHER DUE TO A LINGERING TROUGH
BEHIND THE LOW...OR ANOTHER WEAK STORM SYSTEM CROSSING THE AREA
LATE IN THE WEEK.

FOR TEMPERATURES TUESDAY-FRIDAY USED A BLEND OF
MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE. BLENDED IN GFS 2-METER
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ECMWF AND GFS
2-METER TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY TO BETTER REFLECT IMPACT OF
EVAPORATIVE COOLING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THE LONG RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH TODAY.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH
THIS MORNING...WITH A MID LEVEL DECK MOVING IN LATE AFT/EVE.
BRIEF MVFR CIG POSSIBLE 00Z TO 03Z SUN AT KSWF.

WSW WINDS AT LESS THAN 8 KT THRU EARLY MORNING...THEN BACKING
SLIGHTLY AND INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KT WITH G20KT AFTER 14-15Z.
GUSTS LOST BY 00Z SUN.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUN THROUGH WED...
.SUN...VFR.
.SUN NIGHT-MON...BECOMING MVFR/IFR. POSSIBLY SUB-IFR. RA AND FG
WITH LLWS POSSIBLE.
.MON NIGHT-TUE...VFR.
.WED...MAINLY VFR...ALTHOUGH POSSIBLE RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX MAY
IMPACT THE AREA...ESPECIALLY EAST OF NYC METRO.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR SOUTH TODAY WITH THE GRADIENT TIGHTENING
THIS AFTERNOON. SCA CONDITIONS BECOME LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALL
WATERS EXCEPT THE WESTERN SOUND AND NY HARBOR...BUT A GUST OR TWO UP
TO 25 KT FOR THESE ZONES IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THE GRADIENT
RELAXES TOWARDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE RIDGE PIVOTS THROUGH
THE WATERS. WILL CARRY THE SCA THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOR THE EASTERN
SOUND AND LI BAYS...AND THROUGH THE ENTIRE NIGHT FOR THE OCEAN
WATERS WEST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET. EAST OF THIS...SEAS WILL BE SLOWER
TO SUBSIDE ON A SW FLOW. WAVEWATCH LOOKS A LITTLE TOO HIGH FOR SEAS
HERE CONSIDERING THERE SHOULD BE VERY LITTLE SWELL TO FACTOR IN.
HAVE THEREFORE ENDED SCA HERE AT NOON ON SUNDAY.

WINDS PICK UP AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A STRONG LOW MOVES
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A 60KT+ LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTING
THROUGH LATE AT NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING BRINGS THE THREAT OF
GALES. BETTER OVERALL CHANCES WOULD BE ON THE OCEAN WATERS...BUT
THIS COULD EXPAND TO THE OTHER ZONES. SCA CONDITIONS OTHERWISE PREVAIL
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A RELATIVELY
BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. SCA
CONDITIONS THEN BECOME MORE PROBABLE AS WEDNESDAY PROGRESSES AS A
COASTAL STORM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR 3/4 TO 1 1/3 INCHES OF RAIN FROM SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY EVENING...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AT THIS TIME IS EXPECTED OVER THE NYC METRO
AREA...AND LIGHTEST AMOUNTS OVER FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF SE CT AND
THE TWIN FORKS OF LONG ISLAND. WHILE FOR THE MOST PART NO
SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC IMPACT IS EXPECTED...THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. AREAS THAT
EXPERIENCE THIS...IF ANY DO...COULD EXPERIENCE MINOR FLOODING OF
URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY 24 NOVEMBER...

LOCATION........RECORD/YEAR.....FORECAST HIGH

NEWARK..............75/1979...........70
BRIDGEPORT..........63/1979...........64
CENTRAL PARK........73/1979...........68
LAGUARDIA AIRPORT...68/1999...........69
JFK AIRPORT.........63/2001*..........66
ISLIP...............63/2001...........66

* ALSO OCCURRED IN PREVIOUS YEARS

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT
     FOR ANZ330-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JC
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT




000
FXUS61 KOKX 220939
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
439 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH
TONIGHT...MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE AREA
TONIGHT AS WELL. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST
SUNDAY...THEN LIFTS TO OUR NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.
A COLD FRONT THEN FOLLOWS BEHIND IT MONDAY NIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD
TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY TRACKS NORTHEAST AS IT
STRENGTHENS...REACHING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THURSDAY. A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THEN LINGERS NEAR THE AREA INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SHORTWAVE RIDGE EXITS THIS MORNING...LEAVING ZONAL FLOW IN ITS
WAKE ALOFT. WITH NO DISCERNIBLE FORCING EMBEDDED IN THE ZONAL
FLOW...IT SHOULD BE DRY. THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON IN
RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE.

FOR HIGHS TODAY...USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 950 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE NOT QUITE AS COLD AS YESTERDAY...BUT
STILL AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES TO THE NORTH TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD BRING AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND...WHEN COUPLED WITH SOME WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT...A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT RAIN OR
FREEZING RAIN ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA. FOR NOW
IT APPEARS THAT LOWS ACROSS MAINLY THE FAR NORTHERN TIER OF THE
CWA...AS WELL AS THE W 2/3-3/4 OF ORANGE COUNTY SHOULD BE AT OR
JUST BELOW FREEZING. SO THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN
IN THESE AREAS...IF ANY PRECIPITATION FALLS. AT THIS TIME...THE
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION OCCURRING IS FAR TO LOW - LESS THAN 40
PERCENT TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY - OR EVEN A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT HIGHLIGHTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME GLAZING OF ICE FROM
ORANGE COUNTY ON E ACROSS INTERIOR S CT.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES WAS USED...WITH VALUES EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL.

DEEP LAYERED RIDGING TRANSITS THE AREA SUNDAY...KEEPING THINGS
DRY. AS THE RIDGE EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT...DEEPENING
SE SFC-SW FLOW ALOFT WILL ADVECTING IN ABUNDANT MOISTURE...AND
WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT - THE LIKELIHOOD OF MODERATE
RAINFALL BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL
SUNDAY NIGHT.

FOR HIGHS SUNDAY A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH A MIX DOWN
FROM 975 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES
WAS USED. HIGHS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. FOR LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES WAS USED...WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE 10-15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. LIKELY WILL SEE RISING TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT.

RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS MONDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE AND
850 WARM FRONTS FINISH LIFTING TO THE NORTH...WITH ANY LINGERING
SHOWERS COMING TO AN END MONDAY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. REFER TO THE HYDROLOGY SECTION OF THE AFD FOR
FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND ANY IMPACTS.

MONDAY WILL END UP BEING VERY MILD...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
LOWER 60S OVER FAR EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA...TO THE UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70 ACROSS THE NYC METRO. THIS IS 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
AND CONSISTENT WITH A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 950-925 HPA PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A BLEND OF MAV/MET
GUIDANCE. RECORD HIGHS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AS A RESULT. REFER
TO THE CLIMATE SECTION OF THE AFD FOR DETAILS.

FOR LOWS MONDAY NIGHT A BLEND OF MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE
WAS USED WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES. VALUES SHOULD BE AROUND

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THERE ARE STILL SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS HANDLING OF
A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO TEXAS
TUESDAY MORNING...AND MORE IMPORTANTLY HOW A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE DIVING DOWN FROM N CENTRAL CANADA INTERACTS WITH THIS
TROUGH IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

THE 00Z ECMWF IS THE STRONGEST WITH THIS NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE...AND HENCE ULTIMATELY DEEPER AND CLOSER TO THE COAST
WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW. THE CMC IS THE SLOWEST WITH THIS
FEATURE AND DOES NOT HAVE MUCH IF ANY PHASING WITH THE FULL
LATITUDE TROUGH...SO ITS LOW IS WEAKER AND FAR ENOUGH OUT TO SEA
THAT THERE WOULD BE LITTLE OR NO IMPACT. THE GFS HAS ABOUT THE
SAME STRENGTH OF THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AS THE CMC...BUT IS
FASTER AND HENCE HAS ENOUGH PHASING WITH THE FULL LATITUDE TROUGH
TO HAVE ITS LOW BE A BIT STRONGER AND CLOSER TO THE COAST THAN THE
CMC. THE GEFS MEAN IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
OPERATIONAL GFS. SO BASED ON THIS...FOR NOW IT APPEARS THE ECMWF
IS AN OUTLIER AND HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARDS A NON-ECMWF SOLUTION AT
THIS TIME.

GIVEN THE GFS TENDENCY TO BE A BIT TO FAR OFFSHORE THIS FAR OUT
IN TIME WITH THESE SORTS OF SYSTEMS...HAVE OPTED FOR A SOLUTION
SIMILAR IN STRENGTH TO THE GFS...BUT SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO THE
COAST...BUT STILL TO THE EAST OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. ADJUSTED
POPS TO BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN 6 HOURLY
PROBABILITY OF 0.05 INCHES OF QPF FROM TUESDAY- THURSDAY...THOUGH
DID GENERALLY CAP AT AROUND 40 PERCENT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.

IT SHOULD BE DRY TUESDAY UNDER SW FLOW ALOFT. A REINFORCING SHOT OF
LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ARRIVES LATE TUESDAY BEHIND A PASSING DRY COLD
FRONT. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP FROM SE TO NW LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE...FOR NOW OFF AND ON IN
NATURE...INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING...THEN TAPER OFF FROM NW TO SE
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN AS LIGHT SNOW
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS AREAS N/W OF NYC...IF IT GETS THAT
FAR INLAND...AND AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS MOST OF S CT...WITH
MAINLY RAIN ELSEWHERE. ALL PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE TO RAIN
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. AS THE LOW DEEPENS AS IT PASSES TO OUR
SE AND E WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ENOUGH LOW LEVEL COLD AIR SHOULD MOVE
IN TO TURN ALL PRECIPITATION OVER TO A LIGHT SNOW. PRECIPITATION
SHOULD TRANSITION BACK OVER TO RAIN THEN RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY AS
THE STORM PULLS AWAY.

ONCE AGAIN...THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL THAT THE STORM STAYS FAR
ENOUGH OUT TO SEE THAT THE AREA RECEIVES NO PRECIPITATION. THERE
IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY THAT A SOLUTION CLOSER TO THE ECMWF
OCCURS...THIS WOULD RESULT IN MORE PRECIPITATION...AND LIKELY MORE
SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA. AT THIS
TIME IT IS TOO EARLY TO SPECULATE ON ANY EXACT IMPACT/EXTENT OF
THIS SYSTEM DUE TO THE LARGE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY ON ITS EXACT
TRACK AND STRENGTH. STAY TUNED.

MODELS ARE STILL DIVERGENT OVER WHAT HAPPENS BEHIND THE
STORM...BUT IT APPEARS MOST LIKELY THAT THERE COULD BE SOME
UNSETTLED WEATHER IN ITS WAKE EITHER DUE TO A LINGERING TROUGH
BEHIND THE LOW...OR ANOTHER WEAK STORM SYSTEM CROSSING THE AREA
LATE IN THE WEEK.

FOR TEMPERATURES TUESDAY-FRIDAY USED A BLEND OF
MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE. BLENDED IN GFS 2-METER
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ECMWF AND GFS
2-METER TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY TO BETTER REFLECT IMPACT OF
EVAPORTATIVE COOLING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THE LONG RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH TODAY.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH
THIS MORNING...WITH A MID LEVEL DECK MOVING IN LATE AFT/EVE.
BRIEF MVFR CIG POSSIBLE 00Z TO 03Z SUN AT KSWF.

WSW WINDS AT LESS THAN 8 KT THRU EARLY MORNING...THEN BACKING
SLIGHTLY AND INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KT WITH G20KT AFTER 14-15Z.
GUSTS LOST BY 00Z SUN.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUN THROUGH WED...
.SUN...VFR.
.SUN NIGHT-MON...BECOMING MVFR/IFR. POSSIBLY SUB-IFR. RA AND FG
WITH LLWS POSSIBLE.
.MON NIGHT-TUE...VFR.
.WED...MAINLY VFR...ALTHOUGH POSSIBLE RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX MAY
IMPACT THE AREA...ESPECIALLY EAST OF NYC METRO.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR SOUTH TODAY WITH THE GRADIENT TIGHTENING
THIS AFTERNOON. SCA CONDITIONS BECOME LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALL
WATERS EXCEPT THE WESTERN SOUND AND NY HARBOR...BUT A GUST OR TWO UP
TO 25 KT FOR THESE ZONES IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THE GRADIENT
RELAXES TOWARDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE RIDGE PIVOTS THROUGH
THE WATERS. WILL CARRY THE SCA THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOR THE EASTERN
SOUND AND LI BAYS...AND THROUGH THE ENTIRE NIGHT FOR THE OCEAN
WATERS WEST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET. EAST OF THIS...SEAS WILL BE SLOWER
TO SUBSIDE ON A SW FLOW. WAVEWATCH LOOKS A LITTLE TOO HIGH FOR SEAS
HERE CONSIDERING THERE SHOULD BE VERY LITTLE SWELL TO FACTOR IN.
HAVE THEREFORE ENDED SCA HERE AT NOON ON SUNDAY.

WINDS PICK UP AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A STRONG LOW MOVES
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A 60KT+ LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTING
THROUGH LATE AT NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING BRINGS THE THREAT OF
GALES. BETTER OVERALL CHANCES WOULD BE ON THE OCEAN WATERS...BUT
THIS COULD EXPAND TO THE OTHER ZONES. SCA CONDITIONS OTHERWISE PREVAIL
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A RELATIVELY
BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. SCA CONDITIONS
THEN BECOME MORE PROBABLE AS WEDNESDAY PROGRESSES AS A COASTAL STORM
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR 3/4 TO 1 1/3 INCHES OF RAIN FROM SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY EVENING...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AT THIS TIME IS EXPECTED OVER THE NYC METRO
AREA...AND LIGHTEST AMOUNTS OVER FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF SE CT AND
THE TWIN FORKS OF LONG ISLAND. WHILE FOR THE MOST PART NO
SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC IMPACT IS EXPECTED...THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. AREAS THAT
EXPERIENCE THIS...IF ANY DO...COULD EXPERIENCE MINOR FLOODING OF
URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY 24 NOVEMBER...

LOCATIONRECORD/YEARFORECAST HIGH

NEWARK     75/1979           70
BRIDGEPORT    63/1979           64
CENTRAL PARK    73/1979           68
LAGUARDIA AIRPORT   68/1999           69
JFK AIRPORT         63/2001*          66
ISLIP     63/2001           66

* ALSO OCCURRED IN PREVIOUS YEARS

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT
     FOR ANZ330-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JC
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT




000
FXUS61 KOKX 220939
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
439 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH
TONIGHT...MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE AREA
TONIGHT AS WELL. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST
SUNDAY...THEN LIFTS TO OUR NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.
A COLD FRONT THEN FOLLOWS BEHIND IT MONDAY NIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD
TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY TRACKS NORTHEAST AS IT
STRENGTHENS...REACHING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THURSDAY. A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THEN LINGERS NEAR THE AREA INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SHORTWAVE RIDGE EXITS THIS MORNING...LEAVING ZONAL FLOW IN ITS
WAKE ALOFT. WITH NO DISCERNIBLE FORCING EMBEDDED IN THE ZONAL
FLOW...IT SHOULD BE DRY. THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON IN
RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE.

FOR HIGHS TODAY...USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 950 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE NOT QUITE AS COLD AS YESTERDAY...BUT
STILL AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES TO THE NORTH TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD BRING AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND...WHEN COUPLED WITH SOME WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT...A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT RAIN OR
FREEZING RAIN ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA. FOR NOW
IT APPEARS THAT LOWS ACROSS MAINLY THE FAR NORTHERN TIER OF THE
CWA...AS WELL AS THE W 2/3-3/4 OF ORANGE COUNTY SHOULD BE AT OR
JUST BELOW FREEZING. SO THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN
IN THESE AREAS...IF ANY PRECIPITATION FALLS. AT THIS TIME...THE
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION OCCURRING IS FAR TO LOW - LESS THAN 40
PERCENT TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY - OR EVEN A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT HIGHLIGHTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME GLAZING OF ICE FROM
ORANGE COUNTY ON E ACROSS INTERIOR S CT.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES WAS USED...WITH VALUES EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL.

DEEP LAYERED RIDGING TRANSITS THE AREA SUNDAY...KEEPING THINGS
DRY. AS THE RIDGE EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT...DEEPENING
SE SFC-SW FLOW ALOFT WILL ADVECTING IN ABUNDANT MOISTURE...AND
WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT - THE LIKELIHOOD OF MODERATE
RAINFALL BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL
SUNDAY NIGHT.

FOR HIGHS SUNDAY A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH A MIX DOWN
FROM 975 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES
WAS USED. HIGHS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. FOR LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES WAS USED...WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE 10-15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. LIKELY WILL SEE RISING TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT.

RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS MONDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE AND
850 WARM FRONTS FINISH LIFTING TO THE NORTH...WITH ANY LINGERING
SHOWERS COMING TO AN END MONDAY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. REFER TO THE HYDROLOGY SECTION OF THE AFD FOR
FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND ANY IMPACTS.

MONDAY WILL END UP BEING VERY MILD...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
LOWER 60S OVER FAR EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA...TO THE UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70 ACROSS THE NYC METRO. THIS IS 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
AND CONSISTENT WITH A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 950-925 HPA PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A BLEND OF MAV/MET
GUIDANCE. RECORD HIGHS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AS A RESULT. REFER
TO THE CLIMATE SECTION OF THE AFD FOR DETAILS.

FOR LOWS MONDAY NIGHT A BLEND OF MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE
WAS USED WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES. VALUES SHOULD BE AROUND

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THERE ARE STILL SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS HANDLING OF
A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO TEXAS
TUESDAY MORNING...AND MORE IMPORTANTLY HOW A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE DIVING DOWN FROM N CENTRAL CANADA INTERACTS WITH THIS
TROUGH IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

THE 00Z ECMWF IS THE STRONGEST WITH THIS NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE...AND HENCE ULTIMATELY DEEPER AND CLOSER TO THE COAST
WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW. THE CMC IS THE SLOWEST WITH THIS
FEATURE AND DOES NOT HAVE MUCH IF ANY PHASING WITH THE FULL
LATITUDE TROUGH...SO ITS LOW IS WEAKER AND FAR ENOUGH OUT TO SEA
THAT THERE WOULD BE LITTLE OR NO IMPACT. THE GFS HAS ABOUT THE
SAME STRENGTH OF THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AS THE CMC...BUT IS
FASTER AND HENCE HAS ENOUGH PHASING WITH THE FULL LATITUDE TROUGH
TO HAVE ITS LOW BE A BIT STRONGER AND CLOSER TO THE COAST THAN THE
CMC. THE GEFS MEAN IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
OPERATIONAL GFS. SO BASED ON THIS...FOR NOW IT APPEARS THE ECMWF
IS AN OUTLIER AND HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARDS A NON-ECMWF SOLUTION AT
THIS TIME.

GIVEN THE GFS TENDENCY TO BE A BIT TO FAR OFFSHORE THIS FAR OUT
IN TIME WITH THESE SORTS OF SYSTEMS...HAVE OPTED FOR A SOLUTION
SIMILAR IN STRENGTH TO THE GFS...BUT SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO THE
COAST...BUT STILL TO THE EAST OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. ADJUSTED
POPS TO BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN 6 HOURLY
PROBABILITY OF 0.05 INCHES OF QPF FROM TUESDAY- THURSDAY...THOUGH
DID GENERALLY CAP AT AROUND 40 PERCENT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.

IT SHOULD BE DRY TUESDAY UNDER SW FLOW ALOFT. A REINFORCING SHOT OF
LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ARRIVES LATE TUESDAY BEHIND A PASSING DRY COLD
FRONT. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP FROM SE TO NW LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE...FOR NOW OFF AND ON IN
NATURE...INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING...THEN TAPER OFF FROM NW TO SE
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN AS LIGHT SNOW
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS AREAS N/W OF NYC...IF IT GETS THAT
FAR INLAND...AND AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS MOST OF S CT...WITH
MAINLY RAIN ELSEWHERE. ALL PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE TO RAIN
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. AS THE LOW DEEPENS AS IT PASSES TO OUR
SE AND E WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ENOUGH LOW LEVEL COLD AIR SHOULD MOVE
IN TO TURN ALL PRECIPITATION OVER TO A LIGHT SNOW. PRECIPITATION
SHOULD TRANSITION BACK OVER TO RAIN THEN RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY AS
THE STORM PULLS AWAY.

ONCE AGAIN...THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL THAT THE STORM STAYS FAR
ENOUGH OUT TO SEE THAT THE AREA RECEIVES NO PRECIPITATION. THERE
IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY THAT A SOLUTION CLOSER TO THE ECMWF
OCCURS...THIS WOULD RESULT IN MORE PRECIPITATION...AND LIKELY MORE
SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA. AT THIS
TIME IT IS TOO EARLY TO SPECULATE ON ANY EXACT IMPACT/EXTENT OF
THIS SYSTEM DUE TO THE LARGE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY ON ITS EXACT
TRACK AND STRENGTH. STAY TUNED.

MODELS ARE STILL DIVERGENT OVER WHAT HAPPENS BEHIND THE
STORM...BUT IT APPEARS MOST LIKELY THAT THERE COULD BE SOME
UNSETTLED WEATHER IN ITS WAKE EITHER DUE TO A LINGERING TROUGH
BEHIND THE LOW...OR ANOTHER WEAK STORM SYSTEM CROSSING THE AREA
LATE IN THE WEEK.

FOR TEMPERATURES TUESDAY-FRIDAY USED A BLEND OF
MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE. BLENDED IN GFS 2-METER
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ECMWF AND GFS
2-METER TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY TO BETTER REFLECT IMPACT OF
EVAPORTATIVE COOLING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THE LONG RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH TODAY.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH
THIS MORNING...WITH A MID LEVEL DECK MOVING IN LATE AFT/EVE.
BRIEF MVFR CIG POSSIBLE 00Z TO 03Z SUN AT KSWF.

WSW WINDS AT LESS THAN 8 KT THRU EARLY MORNING...THEN BACKING
SLIGHTLY AND INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KT WITH G20KT AFTER 14-15Z.
GUSTS LOST BY 00Z SUN.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUN THROUGH WED...
.SUN...VFR.
.SUN NIGHT-MON...BECOMING MVFR/IFR. POSSIBLY SUB-IFR. RA AND FG
WITH LLWS POSSIBLE.
.MON NIGHT-TUE...VFR.
.WED...MAINLY VFR...ALTHOUGH POSSIBLE RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX MAY
IMPACT THE AREA...ESPECIALLY EAST OF NYC METRO.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR SOUTH TODAY WITH THE GRADIENT TIGHTENING
THIS AFTERNOON. SCA CONDITIONS BECOME LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALL
WATERS EXCEPT THE WESTERN SOUND AND NY HARBOR...BUT A GUST OR TWO UP
TO 25 KT FOR THESE ZONES IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THE GRADIENT
RELAXES TOWARDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE RIDGE PIVOTS THROUGH
THE WATERS. WILL CARRY THE SCA THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOR THE EASTERN
SOUND AND LI BAYS...AND THROUGH THE ENTIRE NIGHT FOR THE OCEAN
WATERS WEST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET. EAST OF THIS...SEAS WILL BE SLOWER
TO SUBSIDE ON A SW FLOW. WAVEWATCH LOOKS A LITTLE TOO HIGH FOR SEAS
HERE CONSIDERING THERE SHOULD BE VERY LITTLE SWELL TO FACTOR IN.
HAVE THEREFORE ENDED SCA HERE AT NOON ON SUNDAY.

WINDS PICK UP AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A STRONG LOW MOVES
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A 60KT+ LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTING
THROUGH LATE AT NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING BRINGS THE THREAT OF
GALES. BETTER OVERALL CHANCES WOULD BE ON THE OCEAN WATERS...BUT
THIS COULD EXPAND TO THE OTHER ZONES. SCA CONDITIONS OTHERWISE PREVAIL
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A RELATIVELY
BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. SCA CONDITIONS
THEN BECOME MORE PROBABLE AS WEDNESDAY PROGRESSES AS A COASTAL STORM
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR 3/4 TO 1 1/3 INCHES OF RAIN FROM SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY EVENING...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AT THIS TIME IS EXPECTED OVER THE NYC METRO
AREA...AND LIGHTEST AMOUNTS OVER FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF SE CT AND
THE TWIN FORKS OF LONG ISLAND. WHILE FOR THE MOST PART NO
SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC IMPACT IS EXPECTED...THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. AREAS THAT
EXPERIENCE THIS...IF ANY DO...COULD EXPERIENCE MINOR FLOODING OF
URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY 24 NOVEMBER...

LOCATIONRECORD/YEARFORECAST HIGH

NEWARK     75/1979           70
BRIDGEPORT    63/1979           64
CENTRAL PARK    73/1979           68
LAGUARDIA AIRPORT   68/1999           69
JFK AIRPORT         63/2001*          66
ISLIP     63/2001           66

* ALSO OCCURRED IN PREVIOUS YEARS

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT
     FOR ANZ330-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JC
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT





000
FXUS61 KALY 220916
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
416 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION
THIS MORNING. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH
AND WEST OF ALBANY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING MILDER AIR TO THE
REGION FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH SOME RAINFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM EST SATURDAY TO 5
AM EST SUNDAY FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY...SCHOHARIE VALLEY...SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...

AS OF 4 AM EST...PATCHY LOW CLOUDS ARE LINGERING ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS. THESE
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY ERODE OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS.

OTHERWISE...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE IN PLACE...AS TEMPS HAVE DIPPED
INTO THE TEENS IN MANY AREAS.

FOR TODAY...SOME SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING...ESP FOR AREAS
S AND E OF ALBANY...WHILE SOME HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS BEGIN TO
EXPAND BACK ACROSS WESTERN AREAS BY MID MORNING. CLOUDS ARE THEN
EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM W TO E ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON...IN RESPONSE TO INTENSIFYING MID LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S.

IN ADDITION...A PAIR OF MID LEVEL IMPULSES...ONE CURRENTLY ACROSS
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...AND ANOTHER TO THE NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES...WILL PROVIDE ENHANCED DYNAMICAL LIFT AS WELL BY LATE
AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY REGION...WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND AREAS MAINLY W OF THE HUDSON RIVER FROM ALBANY
NORTH TOWARD AND AFTER SUNSET...ALTHOUGH COULD REACH FAR WESTERN
AREAS AS EARLY AS 3 OR 4 PM.

FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THAT PRECIP MAY START AS A
SNOW/SLEET MIX ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...AND A SLEET/RAIN MIX IN
LOWER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER...AS SOME WET BULB COOLING
DEVELOPS...THE CHANCES FOR FREEZING RAIN WILL INCREASE AROUND AND
ESP AFTER SUNSET FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY REGION AND AREAS NORTHWARD.
ALSO...DESPITE TEMPS POSSIBLY RISING ABOVE FREEZING TODAY...THE
GROUND WILL REMAIN QUITE COLD...SO IT SHOULD BE FAIRLY EASY FOR
LIGHT ICING TO DEVELOP ON UNTREATED SURFACES.

FURTHER S AND E...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE...THE THREAT FOR
PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH SUNSET FOR AREAS E OF THE
HUDSON RIVER.

TEMPS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 30S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND MID/UPPER 30S FOR VALLEY AREAS. A BRISK SOUTH
WIND IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FROM
ALBANY SOUTH LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL
MAKE CONDITIONS FEEL EVEN COLDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...PRECIPITATION SHOULD EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE FOR AREAS
NEAR AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. SOME LIGHT PRECIP MAY
ALSO OCCASIONALLY REACH AREAS SOUTH OF I-90...INTO THE SE
CATSKILLS...TACONICS AND BERKSHIRES...AND PERHAPS AS FAR S AS THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST
THAT HYDROMETEORS REACHING THE SFC SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF
ICE PELLETS OF LIQUID...BUT FOR MANY AREAS N AND W OF ALBANY...SFC
TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...ALLOWING FOR THE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL.
AGAIN...WITH THE GROUND SO COLD...UNTREATED SURFACES COULD BECOME
RATHER SLIPPERY. THE AREA WHERE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT REPRESENTS THE REGION WITH THE GREATEST PROBABILITY OF
FREEZING RAIN. WILL HAVE TO WATCH RADAR TRENDS AND MESONET SFC
OBS CLOSELY...AS SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN MAY OCCUR EVEN
OUTSIDE THE CURRENT ADVISORY AREAS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
VT AND WESTERN MA. MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE REACHED BETWEEN 10 PM AND 1
AM EST...BEFORE GRADUALLY RISING THEREAFTER.

SUNDAY...THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD PASS NORTH AND EAST OF
THE REGION BY EARLY/MID MORNING...WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL FORCING
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...QUITE A BIT OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION IN THE FORM OF LOW
CLOUDS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. HAVE SIDED
ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS...WITH MAINLY 40S
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH SOME LOWER 50S ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A STRONGER MID LEVEL IMPULSE...CURRENTLY
APPROACHING THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...IS EXPECTED TO DAMPEN AS IT
TRACKS RAPIDLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. STRONG LOW AND MID
LEVEL SOUTH WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IMPULSE WILL ALLOW A BURST
OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION LATE AT
NIGHT. BEFORE THIS OCCURS...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS IN THE
EVENING MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO BRIEFLY DIP INTO THE MID AND UPPER
30S...BEFORE RISING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE RAPIDLY INCREASING
CLOUDS. MODERATE RAIN IS THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...THROUGH DAYBREAK
MONDAY. RAINFALL AMTS OF ONE TO TWO THIRDS OF AN INCH ARE
EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. IN ADDITION...GIVEN
THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL JET TRAVERSING THE REGION LATE AT
NIGHT...WITH THE 00Z/NAM12 SUGGESTING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST H850 WINDS
OF 60-70 KT OVER SW NEW ENGLAND AND SE NY...SOME RATHER WINDY
CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
TACONICS...SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS AND BERKSHIRES...AND POSSIBLY THE
CATSKILLS...WITH SOME WIND GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 40-45 MPH.

MONDAY...RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF RATHER QUICKLY EARLY IN THE MORNING
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. THEREAFTER...IT APPEARS THAT LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF FORCING WILL BE PRESENT IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH
AFTERNOON...AS THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAIN WELL
TO OUR WEST. SO...ALTHOUGH HAVE INDICATED SOME SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS...MUCH OF MONDAY AFTERNOON MAY ACTUALLY REMAIN RAIN FREE.
HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST IN THE FORM OF LOW
CLOUDS IN MOST AREAS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD STILL BECOME RATHER MILD BY
LATE AFTERNOON...GENERALLY REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN
MOST VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 50S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. SHOULD ANY
BREAKS OF SUN DEVELOP...MUCH WARMER MAX TEMPS COULD OCCUR.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS MAINLY DRY AND ENDS MAINLY DRY. IT IS
THE MIDDLE PERIOD OF THE FORECAST PERIOD SURROUNDING THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY WHICH MAKES FOR A TRICKY FORECAST. THE ECMWF
HAS TRACKED FARTHER NORTH AND WEST WITH THE COASTAL LOW THE LAST
COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS AS SURFACE WAVE GETS CAPTURED BY UPPER TROUGH
THE GFS AND GGEM ARE MUCH FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE SURFACE
WAVE THUS THE REASON FOR ONLY GOING WITH CHANCE POPS THIS FAR OUT.
IN ADDITION TO BEING FARTHER OUT TO SEA...BOTH THE GFS AND GGEM HAVE
A MUCH WEAKER SYSTEM. AT 12Z THURSDAY ECMWF HAS A 985 MB LOW ALONG
DOWNEAST MAINE WHEREAS THE GFS HAS A 1004 MB LOW SOUTHEAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA AND THE GGEM IS EVEN WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH A
1007 MB LOW ESSENTIALLY OUT TO SEA. THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WITH ONLY THE ECMWF SHOWING AN
IMPACT ON FA WILL ONLY MENTION A CHANCE OF A STORM POTENTIALLY
IMPACTING THE FA IN THE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY TIME FRAME IN THE
HWO.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD...A COOL DOWN IS IN STORE WITH TEMPS
FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S
NORTHWEST TO LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST...LOWERS 30S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 40S
SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY...UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 40 SOUTHEAST
ON THURSDAY AND UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S ON FRIDAY. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 40S SOUTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT...UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO MID 30S SOUTHEAST TUESDAY
NIGHT....20S TO LOWER 30S WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
UPPER 20S THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT...AND MOVE
OFFSHORE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT MIXED PCPN TO THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WITH MAINLY RAIN AND SLEET EXCEPT FOR
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET AT KGFL.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS DURING MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 06Z
SUNDAY. THE SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT...WITH THE MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN BETWEEN 10-15Z/SAT. THERE COULD BE SOME
SPOTTY SNOW SHOWERS AROUND FROM KALB NORTH AND EAST AFTER
20Z/SAT...AND THESE WERE ADDRESSED WITH A VCSH FOR KALB/KGFL/KPSF
FOR NOW. THIS EVENING THE PCPN WILL BEGIN AND WHILE CIGS WL REMAIN
VFR...MVFR VSBYS ARE EXPECTED AT KGFL/KALB AND KPSF. ONCE AGAIN
THE PCPN TYPE WL BE MAINLY -RAPL EXCEPT FOR -FZRAPL AT KGFL.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SW TO W AT 4-10 KTS EARLY THIS
EVENING..AND THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 5 KTS
OR LESS AFTER 05Z/SAT. EXPECT THE WINDS TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST AT 8-12 KTS LATE TOMORROW MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME GUSTS CLOSE TO 20 KTS AT KALB. WINDS WILL BE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 4 TO 10 KTS THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL IMPACT THE REGION...MAINLY FOR AREAS
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
BASIN AVERAGE LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF PRECIP WILL BE A QUARTER OF AN
INCH OR LESS...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS. ALONG WITH A MILDER AIR MASS...A MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP
EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY
BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR SO...LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR NYZ032-033-038>042-047-048-082-083.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL








000
FXUS61 KALY 220916
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
416 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION
THIS MORNING. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH
AND WEST OF ALBANY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING MILDER AIR TO THE
REGION FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH SOME RAINFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM EST SATURDAY TO 5
AM EST SUNDAY FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY...SCHOHARIE VALLEY...SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...

AS OF 4 AM EST...PATCHY LOW CLOUDS ARE LINGERING ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS. THESE
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY ERODE OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS.

OTHERWISE...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE IN PLACE...AS TEMPS HAVE DIPPED
INTO THE TEENS IN MANY AREAS.

FOR TODAY...SOME SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING...ESP FOR AREAS
S AND E OF ALBANY...WHILE SOME HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS BEGIN TO
EXPAND BACK ACROSS WESTERN AREAS BY MID MORNING. CLOUDS ARE THEN
EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM W TO E ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON...IN RESPONSE TO INTENSIFYING MID LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S.

IN ADDITION...A PAIR OF MID LEVEL IMPULSES...ONE CURRENTLY ACROSS
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...AND ANOTHER TO THE NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES...WILL PROVIDE ENHANCED DYNAMICAL LIFT AS WELL BY LATE
AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY REGION...WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND AREAS MAINLY W OF THE HUDSON RIVER FROM ALBANY
NORTH TOWARD AND AFTER SUNSET...ALTHOUGH COULD REACH FAR WESTERN
AREAS AS EARLY AS 3 OR 4 PM.

FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THAT PRECIP MAY START AS A
SNOW/SLEET MIX ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...AND A SLEET/RAIN MIX IN
LOWER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER...AS SOME WET BULB COOLING
DEVELOPS...THE CHANCES FOR FREEZING RAIN WILL INCREASE AROUND AND
ESP AFTER SUNSET FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY REGION AND AREAS NORTHWARD.
ALSO...DESPITE TEMPS POSSIBLY RISING ABOVE FREEZING TODAY...THE
GROUND WILL REMAIN QUITE COLD...SO IT SHOULD BE FAIRLY EASY FOR
LIGHT ICING TO DEVELOP ON UNTREATED SURFACES.

FURTHER S AND E...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE...THE THREAT FOR
PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH SUNSET FOR AREAS E OF THE
HUDSON RIVER.

TEMPS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 30S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND MID/UPPER 30S FOR VALLEY AREAS. A BRISK SOUTH
WIND IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FROM
ALBANY SOUTH LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL
MAKE CONDITIONS FEEL EVEN COLDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...PRECIPITATION SHOULD EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE FOR AREAS
NEAR AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. SOME LIGHT PRECIP MAY
ALSO OCCASIONALLY REACH AREAS SOUTH OF I-90...INTO THE SE
CATSKILLS...TACONICS AND BERKSHIRES...AND PERHAPS AS FAR S AS THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST
THAT HYDROMETEORS REACHING THE SFC SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF
ICE PELLETS OF LIQUID...BUT FOR MANY AREAS N AND W OF ALBANY...SFC
TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...ALLOWING FOR THE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL.
AGAIN...WITH THE GROUND SO COLD...UNTREATED SURFACES COULD BECOME
RATHER SLIPPERY. THE AREA WHERE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT REPRESENTS THE REGION WITH THE GREATEST PROBABILITY OF
FREEZING RAIN. WILL HAVE TO WATCH RADAR TRENDS AND MESONET SFC
OBS CLOSELY...AS SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN MAY OCCUR EVEN
OUTSIDE THE CURRENT ADVISORY AREAS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
VT AND WESTERN MA. MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE REACHED BETWEEN 10 PM AND 1
AM EST...BEFORE GRADUALLY RISING THEREAFTER.

SUNDAY...THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD PASS NORTH AND EAST OF
THE REGION BY EARLY/MID MORNING...WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL FORCING
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...QUITE A BIT OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION IN THE FORM OF LOW
CLOUDS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. HAVE SIDED
ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS...WITH MAINLY 40S
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH SOME LOWER 50S ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A STRONGER MID LEVEL IMPULSE...CURRENTLY
APPROACHING THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...IS EXPECTED TO DAMPEN AS IT
TRACKS RAPIDLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. STRONG LOW AND MID
LEVEL SOUTH WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IMPULSE WILL ALLOW A BURST
OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION LATE AT
NIGHT. BEFORE THIS OCCURS...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS IN THE
EVENING MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO BRIEFLY DIP INTO THE MID AND UPPER
30S...BEFORE RISING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE RAPIDLY INCREASING
CLOUDS. MODERATE RAIN IS THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...THROUGH DAYBREAK
MONDAY. RAINFALL AMTS OF ONE TO TWO THIRDS OF AN INCH ARE
EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. IN ADDITION...GIVEN
THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL JET TRAVERSING THE REGION LATE AT
NIGHT...WITH THE 00Z/NAM12 SUGGESTING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST H850 WINDS
OF 60-70 KT OVER SW NEW ENGLAND AND SE NY...SOME RATHER WINDY
CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
TACONICS...SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS AND BERKSHIRES...AND POSSIBLY THE
CATSKILLS...WITH SOME WIND GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 40-45 MPH.

MONDAY...RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF RATHER QUICKLY EARLY IN THE MORNING
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. THEREAFTER...IT APPEARS THAT LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF FORCING WILL BE PRESENT IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH
AFTERNOON...AS THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAIN WELL
TO OUR WEST. SO...ALTHOUGH HAVE INDICATED SOME SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS...MUCH OF MONDAY AFTERNOON MAY ACTUALLY REMAIN RAIN FREE.
HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST IN THE FORM OF LOW
CLOUDS IN MOST AREAS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD STILL BECOME RATHER MILD BY
LATE AFTERNOON...GENERALLY REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN
MOST VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 50S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. SHOULD ANY
BREAKS OF SUN DEVELOP...MUCH WARMER MAX TEMPS COULD OCCUR.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS MAINLY DRY AND ENDS MAINLY DRY. IT IS
THE MIDDLE PERIOD OF THE FORECAST PERIOD SURROUNDING THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY WHICH MAKES FOR A TRICKY FORECAST. THE ECMWF
HAS TRACKED FARTHER NORTH AND WEST WITH THE COASTAL LOW THE LAST
COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS AS SURFACE WAVE GETS CAPTURED BY UPPER TROUGH
THE GFS AND GGEM ARE MUCH FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE SURFACE
WAVE THUS THE REASON FOR ONLY GOING WITH CHANCE POPS THIS FAR OUT.
IN ADDITION TO BEING FARTHER OUT TO SEA...BOTH THE GFS AND GGEM HAVE
A MUCH WEAKER SYSTEM. AT 12Z THURSDAY ECMWF HAS A 985 MB LOW ALONG
DOWNEAST MAINE WHEREAS THE GFS HAS A 1004 MB LOW SOUTHEAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA AND THE GGEM IS EVEN WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH A
1007 MB LOW ESSENTIALLY OUT TO SEA. THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WITH ONLY THE ECMWF SHOWING AN
IMPACT ON FA WILL ONLY MENTION A CHANCE OF A STORM POTENTIALLY
IMPACTING THE FA IN THE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY TIME FRAME IN THE
HWO.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD...A COOL DOWN IS IN STORE WITH TEMPS
FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S
NORTHWEST TO LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST...LOWERS 30S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 40S
SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY...UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 40 SOUTHEAST
ON THURSDAY AND UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S ON FRIDAY. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 40S SOUTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT...UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO MID 30S SOUTHEAST TUESDAY
NIGHT....20S TO LOWER 30S WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
UPPER 20S THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT...AND MOVE
OFFSHORE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT MIXED PCPN TO THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WITH MAINLY RAIN AND SLEET EXCEPT FOR
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET AT KGFL.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS DURING MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 06Z
SUNDAY. THE SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT...WITH THE MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN BETWEEN 10-15Z/SAT. THERE COULD BE SOME
SPOTTY SNOW SHOWERS AROUND FROM KALB NORTH AND EAST AFTER
20Z/SAT...AND THESE WERE ADDRESSED WITH A VCSH FOR KALB/KGFL/KPSF
FOR NOW. THIS EVENING THE PCPN WILL BEGIN AND WHILE CIGS WL REMAIN
VFR...MVFR VSBYS ARE EXPECTED AT KGFL/KALB AND KPSF. ONCE AGAIN
THE PCPN TYPE WL BE MAINLY -RAPL EXCEPT FOR -FZRAPL AT KGFL.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SW TO W AT 4-10 KTS EARLY THIS
EVENING..AND THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 5 KTS
OR LESS AFTER 05Z/SAT. EXPECT THE WINDS TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST AT 8-12 KTS LATE TOMORROW MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME GUSTS CLOSE TO 20 KTS AT KALB. WINDS WILL BE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 4 TO 10 KTS THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL IMPACT THE REGION...MAINLY FOR AREAS
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
BASIN AVERAGE LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF PRECIP WILL BE A QUARTER OF AN
INCH OR LESS...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS. ALONG WITH A MILDER AIR MASS...A MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP
EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY
BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR SO...LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR NYZ032-033-038>042-047-048-082-083.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL








000
FXUS61 KALY 220916
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
416 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION
THIS MORNING. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH
AND WEST OF ALBANY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING MILDER AIR TO THE
REGION FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH SOME RAINFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM EST SATURDAY TO 5
AM EST SUNDAY FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY...SCHOHARIE VALLEY...SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...

AS OF 4 AM EST...PATCHY LOW CLOUDS ARE LINGERING ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS. THESE
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY ERODE OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS.

OTHERWISE...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE IN PLACE...AS TEMPS HAVE DIPPED
INTO THE TEENS IN MANY AREAS.

FOR TODAY...SOME SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING...ESP FOR AREAS
S AND E OF ALBANY...WHILE SOME HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS BEGIN TO
EXPAND BACK ACROSS WESTERN AREAS BY MID MORNING. CLOUDS ARE THEN
EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM W TO E ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON...IN RESPONSE TO INTENSIFYING MID LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S.

IN ADDITION...A PAIR OF MID LEVEL IMPULSES...ONE CURRENTLY ACROSS
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...AND ANOTHER TO THE NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES...WILL PROVIDE ENHANCED DYNAMICAL LIFT AS WELL BY LATE
AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY REGION...WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND AREAS MAINLY W OF THE HUDSON RIVER FROM ALBANY
NORTH TOWARD AND AFTER SUNSET...ALTHOUGH COULD REACH FAR WESTERN
AREAS AS EARLY AS 3 OR 4 PM.

FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THAT PRECIP MAY START AS A
SNOW/SLEET MIX ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...AND A SLEET/RAIN MIX IN
LOWER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER...AS SOME WET BULB COOLING
DEVELOPS...THE CHANCES FOR FREEZING RAIN WILL INCREASE AROUND AND
ESP AFTER SUNSET FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY REGION AND AREAS NORTHWARD.
ALSO...DESPITE TEMPS POSSIBLY RISING ABOVE FREEZING TODAY...THE
GROUND WILL REMAIN QUITE COLD...SO IT SHOULD BE FAIRLY EASY FOR
LIGHT ICING TO DEVELOP ON UNTREATED SURFACES.

FURTHER S AND E...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE...THE THREAT FOR
PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH SUNSET FOR AREAS E OF THE
HUDSON RIVER.

TEMPS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 30S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND MID/UPPER 30S FOR VALLEY AREAS. A BRISK SOUTH
WIND IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FROM
ALBANY SOUTH LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL
MAKE CONDITIONS FEEL EVEN COLDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...PRECIPITATION SHOULD EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE FOR AREAS
NEAR AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. SOME LIGHT PRECIP MAY
ALSO OCCASIONALLY REACH AREAS SOUTH OF I-90...INTO THE SE
CATSKILLS...TACONICS AND BERKSHIRES...AND PERHAPS AS FAR S AS THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST
THAT HYDROMETEORS REACHING THE SFC SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF
ICE PELLETS OF LIQUID...BUT FOR MANY AREAS N AND W OF ALBANY...SFC
TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...ALLOWING FOR THE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL.
AGAIN...WITH THE GROUND SO COLD...UNTREATED SURFACES COULD BECOME
RATHER SLIPPERY. THE AREA WHERE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT REPRESENTS THE REGION WITH THE GREATEST PROBABILITY OF
FREEZING RAIN. WILL HAVE TO WATCH RADAR TRENDS AND MESONET SFC
OBS CLOSELY...AS SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN MAY OCCUR EVEN
OUTSIDE THE CURRENT ADVISORY AREAS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
VT AND WESTERN MA. MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE REACHED BETWEEN 10 PM AND 1
AM EST...BEFORE GRADUALLY RISING THEREAFTER.

SUNDAY...THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD PASS NORTH AND EAST OF
THE REGION BY EARLY/MID MORNING...WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL FORCING
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...QUITE A BIT OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION IN THE FORM OF LOW
CLOUDS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. HAVE SIDED
ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS...WITH MAINLY 40S
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH SOME LOWER 50S ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A STRONGER MID LEVEL IMPULSE...CURRENTLY
APPROACHING THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...IS EXPECTED TO DAMPEN AS IT
TRACKS RAPIDLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. STRONG LOW AND MID
LEVEL SOUTH WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IMPULSE WILL ALLOW A BURST
OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION LATE AT
NIGHT. BEFORE THIS OCCURS...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS IN THE
EVENING MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO BRIEFLY DIP INTO THE MID AND UPPER
30S...BEFORE RISING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE RAPIDLY INCREASING
CLOUDS. MODERATE RAIN IS THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...THROUGH DAYBREAK
MONDAY. RAINFALL AMTS OF ONE TO TWO THIRDS OF AN INCH ARE
EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. IN ADDITION...GIVEN
THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL JET TRAVERSING THE REGION LATE AT
NIGHT...WITH THE 00Z/NAM12 SUGGESTING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST H850 WINDS
OF 60-70 KT OVER SW NEW ENGLAND AND SE NY...SOME RATHER WINDY
CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
TACONICS...SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS AND BERKSHIRES...AND POSSIBLY THE
CATSKILLS...WITH SOME WIND GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 40-45 MPH.

MONDAY...RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF RATHER QUICKLY EARLY IN THE MORNING
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. THEREAFTER...IT APPEARS THAT LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF FORCING WILL BE PRESENT IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH
AFTERNOON...AS THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAIN WELL
TO OUR WEST. SO...ALTHOUGH HAVE INDICATED SOME SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS...MUCH OF MONDAY AFTERNOON MAY ACTUALLY REMAIN RAIN FREE.
HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST IN THE FORM OF LOW
CLOUDS IN MOST AREAS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD STILL BECOME RATHER MILD BY
LATE AFTERNOON...GENERALLY REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN
MOST VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 50S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. SHOULD ANY
BREAKS OF SUN DEVELOP...MUCH WARMER MAX TEMPS COULD OCCUR.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS MAINLY DRY AND ENDS MAINLY DRY. IT IS
THE MIDDLE PERIOD OF THE FORECAST PERIOD SURROUNDING THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY WHICH MAKES FOR A TRICKY FORECAST. THE ECMWF
HAS TRACKED FARTHER NORTH AND WEST WITH THE COASTAL LOW THE LAST
COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS AS SURFACE WAVE GETS CAPTURED BY UPPER TROUGH
THE GFS AND GGEM ARE MUCH FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE SURFACE
WAVE THUS THE REASON FOR ONLY GOING WITH CHANCE POPS THIS FAR OUT.
IN ADDITION TO BEING FARTHER OUT TO SEA...BOTH THE GFS AND GGEM HAVE
A MUCH WEAKER SYSTEM. AT 12Z THURSDAY ECMWF HAS A 985 MB LOW ALONG
DOWNEAST MAINE WHEREAS THE GFS HAS A 1004 MB LOW SOUTHEAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA AND THE GGEM IS EVEN WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH A
1007 MB LOW ESSENTIALLY OUT TO SEA. THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WITH ONLY THE ECMWF SHOWING AN
IMPACT ON FA WILL ONLY MENTION A CHANCE OF A STORM POTENTIALLY
IMPACTING THE FA IN THE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY TIME FRAME IN THE
HWO.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD...A COOL DOWN IS IN STORE WITH TEMPS
FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S
NORTHWEST TO LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST...LOWERS 30S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 40S
SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY...UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 40 SOUTHEAST
ON THURSDAY AND UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S ON FRIDAY. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 40S SOUTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT...UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO MID 30S SOUTHEAST TUESDAY
NIGHT....20S TO LOWER 30S WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
UPPER 20S THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT...AND MOVE
OFFSHORE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT MIXED PCPN TO THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WITH MAINLY RAIN AND SLEET EXCEPT FOR
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET AT KGFL.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS DURING MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 06Z
SUNDAY. THE SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT...WITH THE MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN BETWEEN 10-15Z/SAT. THERE COULD BE SOME
SPOTTY SNOW SHOWERS AROUND FROM KALB NORTH AND EAST AFTER
20Z/SAT...AND THESE WERE ADDRESSED WITH A VCSH FOR KALB/KGFL/KPSF
FOR NOW. THIS EVENING THE PCPN WILL BEGIN AND WHILE CIGS WL REMAIN
VFR...MVFR VSBYS ARE EXPECTED AT KGFL/KALB AND KPSF. ONCE AGAIN
THE PCPN TYPE WL BE MAINLY -RAPL EXCEPT FOR -FZRAPL AT KGFL.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SW TO W AT 4-10 KTS EARLY THIS
EVENING..AND THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 5 KTS
OR LESS AFTER 05Z/SAT. EXPECT THE WINDS TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST AT 8-12 KTS LATE TOMORROW MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME GUSTS CLOSE TO 20 KTS AT KALB. WINDS WILL BE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 4 TO 10 KTS THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL IMPACT THE REGION...MAINLY FOR AREAS
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
BASIN AVERAGE LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF PRECIP WILL BE A QUARTER OF AN
INCH OR LESS...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS. ALONG WITH A MILDER AIR MASS...A MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP
EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY
BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR SO...LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR NYZ032-033-038>042-047-048-082-083.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL








000
FXUS61 KALY 220916
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
416 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION
THIS MORNING. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH
AND WEST OF ALBANY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING MILDER AIR TO THE
REGION FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH SOME RAINFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM EST SATURDAY TO 5
AM EST SUNDAY FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY...SCHOHARIE VALLEY...SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...

AS OF 4 AM EST...PATCHY LOW CLOUDS ARE LINGERING ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS. THESE
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY ERODE OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS.

OTHERWISE...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE IN PLACE...AS TEMPS HAVE DIPPED
INTO THE TEENS IN MANY AREAS.

FOR TODAY...SOME SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING...ESP FOR AREAS
S AND E OF ALBANY...WHILE SOME HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS BEGIN TO
EXPAND BACK ACROSS WESTERN AREAS BY MID MORNING. CLOUDS ARE THEN
EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM W TO E ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON...IN RESPONSE TO INTENSIFYING MID LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S.

IN ADDITION...A PAIR OF MID LEVEL IMPULSES...ONE CURRENTLY ACROSS
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...AND ANOTHER TO THE NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES...WILL PROVIDE ENHANCED DYNAMICAL LIFT AS WELL BY LATE
AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY REGION...WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND AREAS MAINLY W OF THE HUDSON RIVER FROM ALBANY
NORTH TOWARD AND AFTER SUNSET...ALTHOUGH COULD REACH FAR WESTERN
AREAS AS EARLY AS 3 OR 4 PM.

FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THAT PRECIP MAY START AS A
SNOW/SLEET MIX ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...AND A SLEET/RAIN MIX IN
LOWER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER...AS SOME WET BULB COOLING
DEVELOPS...THE CHANCES FOR FREEZING RAIN WILL INCREASE AROUND AND
ESP AFTER SUNSET FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY REGION AND AREAS NORTHWARD.
ALSO...DESPITE TEMPS POSSIBLY RISING ABOVE FREEZING TODAY...THE
GROUND WILL REMAIN QUITE COLD...SO IT SHOULD BE FAIRLY EASY FOR
LIGHT ICING TO DEVELOP ON UNTREATED SURFACES.

FURTHER S AND E...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE...THE THREAT FOR
PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH SUNSET FOR AREAS E OF THE
HUDSON RIVER.

TEMPS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 30S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND MID/UPPER 30S FOR VALLEY AREAS. A BRISK SOUTH
WIND IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FROM
ALBANY SOUTH LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL
MAKE CONDITIONS FEEL EVEN COLDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...PRECIPITATION SHOULD EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE FOR AREAS
NEAR AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. SOME LIGHT PRECIP MAY
ALSO OCCASIONALLY REACH AREAS SOUTH OF I-90...INTO THE SE
CATSKILLS...TACONICS AND BERKSHIRES...AND PERHAPS AS FAR S AS THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST
THAT HYDROMETEORS REACHING THE SFC SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF
ICE PELLETS OF LIQUID...BUT FOR MANY AREAS N AND W OF ALBANY...SFC
TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...ALLOWING FOR THE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL.
AGAIN...WITH THE GROUND SO COLD...UNTREATED SURFACES COULD BECOME
RATHER SLIPPERY. THE AREA WHERE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT REPRESENTS THE REGION WITH THE GREATEST PROBABILITY OF
FREEZING RAIN. WILL HAVE TO WATCH RADAR TRENDS AND MESONET SFC
OBS CLOSELY...AS SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN MAY OCCUR EVEN
OUTSIDE THE CURRENT ADVISORY AREAS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
VT AND WESTERN MA. MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE REACHED BETWEEN 10 PM AND 1
AM EST...BEFORE GRADUALLY RISING THEREAFTER.

SUNDAY...THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD PASS NORTH AND EAST OF
THE REGION BY EARLY/MID MORNING...WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL FORCING
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...QUITE A BIT OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION IN THE FORM OF LOW
CLOUDS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. HAVE SIDED
ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS...WITH MAINLY 40S
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH SOME LOWER 50S ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A STRONGER MID LEVEL IMPULSE...CURRENTLY
APPROACHING THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...IS EXPECTED TO DAMPEN AS IT
TRACKS RAPIDLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. STRONG LOW AND MID
LEVEL SOUTH WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IMPULSE WILL ALLOW A BURST
OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION LATE AT
NIGHT. BEFORE THIS OCCURS...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS IN THE
EVENING MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO BRIEFLY DIP INTO THE MID AND UPPER
30S...BEFORE RISING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE RAPIDLY INCREASING
CLOUDS. MODERATE RAIN IS THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...THROUGH DAYBREAK
MONDAY. RAINFALL AMTS OF ONE TO TWO THIRDS OF AN INCH ARE
EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. IN ADDITION...GIVEN
THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL JET TRAVERSING THE REGION LATE AT
NIGHT...WITH THE 00Z/NAM12 SUGGESTING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST H850 WINDS
OF 60-70 KT OVER SW NEW ENGLAND AND SE NY...SOME RATHER WINDY
CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
TACONICS...SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS AND BERKSHIRES...AND POSSIBLY THE
CATSKILLS...WITH SOME WIND GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 40-45 MPH.

MONDAY...RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF RATHER QUICKLY EARLY IN THE MORNING
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. THEREAFTER...IT APPEARS THAT LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF FORCING WILL BE PRESENT IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH
AFTERNOON...AS THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAIN WELL
TO OUR WEST. SO...ALTHOUGH HAVE INDICATED SOME SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS...MUCH OF MONDAY AFTERNOON MAY ACTUALLY REMAIN RAIN FREE.
HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST IN THE FORM OF LOW
CLOUDS IN MOST AREAS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD STILL BECOME RATHER MILD BY
LATE AFTERNOON...GENERALLY REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN
MOST VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 50S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. SHOULD ANY
BREAKS OF SUN DEVELOP...MUCH WARMER MAX TEMPS COULD OCCUR.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS MAINLY DRY AND ENDS MAINLY DRY. IT IS
THE MIDDLE PERIOD OF THE FORECAST PERIOD SURROUNDING THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY WHICH MAKES FOR A TRICKY FORECAST. THE ECMWF
HAS TRACKED FARTHER NORTH AND WEST WITH THE COASTAL LOW THE LAST
COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS AS SURFACE WAVE GETS CAPTURED BY UPPER TROUGH
THE GFS AND GGEM ARE MUCH FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE SURFACE
WAVE THUS THE REASON FOR ONLY GOING WITH CHANCE POPS THIS FAR OUT.
IN ADDITION TO BEING FARTHER OUT TO SEA...BOTH THE GFS AND GGEM HAVE
A MUCH WEAKER SYSTEM. AT 12Z THURSDAY ECMWF HAS A 985 MB LOW ALONG
DOWNEAST MAINE WHEREAS THE GFS HAS A 1004 MB LOW SOUTHEAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA AND THE GGEM IS EVEN WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH A
1007 MB LOW ESSENTIALLY OUT TO SEA. THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WITH ONLY THE ECMWF SHOWING AN
IMPACT ON FA WILL ONLY MENTION A CHANCE OF A STORM POTENTIALLY
IMPACTING THE FA IN THE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY TIME FRAME IN THE
HWO.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD...A COOL DOWN IS IN STORE WITH TEMPS
FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S
NORTHWEST TO LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST...LOWERS 30S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 40S
SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY...UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 40 SOUTHEAST
ON THURSDAY AND UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S ON FRIDAY. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 40S SOUTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT...UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO MID 30S SOUTHEAST TUESDAY
NIGHT....20S TO LOWER 30S WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
UPPER 20S THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT...AND MOVE
OFFSHORE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT MIXED PCPN TO THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WITH MAINLY RAIN AND SLEET EXCEPT FOR
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET AT KGFL.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS DURING MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 06Z
SUNDAY. THE SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT...WITH THE MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN BETWEEN 10-15Z/SAT. THERE COULD BE SOME
SPOTTY SNOW SHOWERS AROUND FROM KALB NORTH AND EAST AFTER
20Z/SAT...AND THESE WERE ADDRESSED WITH A VCSH FOR KALB/KGFL/KPSF
FOR NOW. THIS EVENING THE PCPN WILL BEGIN AND WHILE CIGS WL REMAIN
VFR...MVFR VSBYS ARE EXPECTED AT KGFL/KALB AND KPSF. ONCE AGAIN
THE PCPN TYPE WL BE MAINLY -RAPL EXCEPT FOR -FZRAPL AT KGFL.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SW TO W AT 4-10 KTS EARLY THIS
EVENING..AND THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 5 KTS
OR LESS AFTER 05Z/SAT. EXPECT THE WINDS TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST AT 8-12 KTS LATE TOMORROW MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME GUSTS CLOSE TO 20 KTS AT KALB. WINDS WILL BE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 4 TO 10 KTS THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL IMPACT THE REGION...MAINLY FOR AREAS
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
BASIN AVERAGE LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF PRECIP WILL BE A QUARTER OF AN
INCH OR LESS...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS. ALONG WITH A MILDER AIR MASS...A MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP
EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY
BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR SO...LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR NYZ032-033-038>042-047-048-082-083.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL








000
FXUS61 KBOX 220841
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
341 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES MODERATE TODAY ON GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. THIS WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY
MONDAY...BUT WITH A PERIOD OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. DRY
AND COOLER TUESDAY...THEN A COASTAL STORM MAY AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT THE TRACK IS STILL
UNCERTAIN. TURNING COLDER INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRES OFF THE MID ATLC COAST WILL RESULT IN DECENT WARM
ADVECTION TO DEVELOP TODAY. SUNSHINE WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING
MID/HIGH CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES...BUT NO PRECIP EXPECTED AS LOW LEVELS REMAIN QUITE DRY.
AFTER A COLD START TO THE DAY TEMPS WILL RECOVER NICELY BUT STILL
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. MAXES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S WITH MID 40S OVER THE CAPE/ISLANDS. LOW LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL LEAD TO
GUSTY SW WINDS DEVELOPING WITH GUSTS TO 25-35 MPH...MAINLY IN THE
COASTAL PLAIN. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ON THE CAPE/ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION AND WHILE MOISTURE
IN THE COLUMN DEEPENS IT IS STILL SOMEWHAT DRY IN THE LOW LEVELS.
A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY N ZONES WHERE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS GREATER BUT ANY PRECIP WILL BE SPOTTY AND VERY LIGHT.
THE MAIN CONCERN IS FOR ISOLATED POCKETS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN
CENTRAL/W MA AND SW NH IF ANY PRECIP DEVELOPS AS TEMPS EXPECTED TO
COOL TO NEAR FREEZING TONIGHT WHILE TEMPS ALOFT WARM WELL ABOVE
FREEZING. THIS IS NOT A CERTAINTY AS IT COULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY
AND WE WILL HAVE ONLY CHC POPS. TEMPS WILL HOLD NEARLY STEADY IN
THE 30S TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION AND NEAR 30 DEGREES
NW...BUT RISING INTO THE 40S S COAST AS GUSTY SW WINDS CONTINUE.
IN FACT...COULD SEE GUSTS TO 40 MPH ON CAPE/ISLANDS.

SUNDAY...
WEAK SFC RIDGING DEVELOPS ACROSS SNE AS MOISTURE GRADUALLY
DECREASES. EXPECT A DRY AND MILD DAY WITH MORNING CLOUDS GIVING
WAY TO PARTIAL SUNSHINE. USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR
TEMPS WITH MAXES IN THE LOW TO MID 50S...EXCEPT UPPER 40S NW
HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - TURNING WARMER AND WET MONDAY
 - A POSSIBLE MIDWEEK STORM...ESPECIALLY FOR SE NEW ENGLAND
 - LOOKING COLDER INTO LATE WEEK

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
22.00Z MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH ABOUT MID WEEK. THE KEY IS A DEVELOPING
LONGWAVE TROF...WHICH AXIS REMAINS WELL TO THE W ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS YIELDS CONTINUES STACKED SW
FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD...KEEPING THE BULK OF THE COLDER AIR TO
THE W. THE ONE PRIMARY ISSUE STILL WITHIN THE MOST UNCERTAIN
PORTION...FROM WED ONWARD...IS A NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT
OF THE PACIFIC TO THE S OF THE ALLEUTIAN ISLANDS. IT IS THIS
FEATURE WHICH IS STILL GENERATING A WAVE OF LOW PRES ALONG A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS LOW PRES
WOULD THEN PASS SOMEWHERE FROM THE S COAST TO WELL SE OF THE 40/70
BENCHMARK. THE ENVELOP OF POTENTIAL TRACKS START LATE WED INTO WED
NIGHT...AND RANGE FROM NEAR THE CAPE COD CANAL TO WELL OFFSHORE
WITH LITTLE TO NO IMPACT. THE ENSEMBLES ALL FALL IN THIS ENVELOP
WHILE THE GFS IS NEAR THE E EDGE AND THE ECMWF NEAR THE W EDGE.
THEREFORE...FEEL THAT A BLEND OF GUIDANCE WILL CONVEY BOTH THE
UNCERTAINTY AND TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE POTENTIAL SOLUTIONS. THIS
INCLUDES THERMAL PROFILES AS THE ECMWF IS SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER
THAN THE GFS.

DETAILS...

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...
WARM OCCLUSION WILL BE MOVING THROUGH EARLY MON MORNING...THIS IS
ASSOCIATED WITH PWATS BETWEEN 1.0-1.25 INCHES...MODERATE SLY LLJ
AROUND 65 KT AND K-VALUES ABOVE 30. ESSENTIALLY ALL INGREDIENTS FOR
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER RAIN AND CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS. TS WOULD BE ISOLATED...BUT NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. WILL
NEED TO MONITOR FOR THIS HEAVY RAIN THREAT UNTIL IT MOVES THROUGH
BY ABOUT MID MORNING-MID DAY MON. WILL ALSO NEED TO MONITOR FOR
STRONG WINDS THANKS TO PRECIP DRAG OR CONVECTIVE FORCING TO THE
SFC AS THE 65 KT LLJ CORE IS ONLY AT ABOUT H92. NOTE MODEST
INVERSION INITIALLY...BUT SOME MIXING OF THIS MOMENTUM IS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION. SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO THE MON NIGHT HOURS...BUT
WILL BE LIGHTER AND LESS WIDESPREAD AS THE UPPER LVL IMPULSE MOVES
THROUGH AND LOW-MID LVL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE.

TUE AND TUE NIGHT...
BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH PRES MOVES OVER FROM THE SW AND CRESTS ACROSS
THE REGION. MID LVL TEMPS STILL RELATIVELY HIGH...SO EXPECT TEMPS
MAINLY ABOVE NORMAL.

WED AND THU...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR A COASTAL LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVING
NE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK...COULD SEE JUST
SOME RAIN FOR E MA AND RI WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A BIT OF LIGHT
MIXED PRECIP TO THE INTERIOR CT/MA/SW NH...THIS IS THE E EDGE OF
THE ENVELOP REPRESENTED BY THE GFS. THE ECMWF IS MUCH WARMER AND
PASSES NEAR THE CANAL..BUT ALSO IS MORE DYNAMIC WITH MORE
PRECIPITATION. AT THIS TIME...GIVEN THE LACK OF A BLOCKING ARCTIC
HIGH AND SLIGHTLY POSITIVE AO/NAO AS THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER
NOTED...FEEL THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH WARM AIR IN PLACE FOR
RAIN/MIXED PRECIP RATHER THAN SNOW OUTRIGHT EVEN IF THE GFS OR E
TRACKING ENSEMBLES VERIFY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS
HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT WARM AIR COULD COME IN FASTER ALOFT AND THERE
WILL BE SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL FOR THE HOLIDAY.

LATE NEXT WEEK-EARLY WEEKEND...
THU-FRI COULD SEE BRIEF SHOT OF LIGHT PRECIP AS THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE EJECTS ENE...BUT BY THIS POINT DRIER AIR IS ALREADY
MOVING IN BEHIND THE COASTAL LOW. IN ANY CASE EXPECT COOLER AIR
TO BEGIN TO FILTER IN TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...VFR. MID LEVEL CIGS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON.
INCREASING SW WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 KT IN
THE COASTAL PLAIN.

TONIGHT...MAINLY LOW-END VFR CIGS DEVELOPING BUT LOW PROB FOR MVFR
WITH A FEW SHOWERS EXPECTED. ISOLATED POCKETS OF -FZRA POSSIBLE
IN W MA AND SW NH. ANY ICING WILL BE VERY LIGHT. SW WIND GUSTS TO
25-30 KT NEAR THE COAST...POSSIBLY UP TO 35 KT CAPE/ISLANDS.

SUNDAY...VFR CIGS. SW GUSTS TO 25 KT CAPE/ISLANDS IN THE
MORNING...THEN DIMINISHING WIND.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. EXPECT VFR CIGS TONIGHT BUT A
FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. SW GUSTS 25-30 KT DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE TONIGHT
BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY -FZRA. LOW PROB FOR BRIEF MVFR CIGS
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CONDITIONS DETERIORATE MVFR-LIFR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
WITH +RA AND STRONG S-WINDS WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS POSSIBLE...
OTHERWISE LLWS IMPACTS WITH 50 KT S-WINDS 2 KFT AGL. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE BY MIDDAY...BUT COULD SEE CONTINUED SW-WINDS AROUND 25 KTS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WSW-FLOW WITH MAINLY VFR.

WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

AN OFFSHORE STORM SYSTEM COULD BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ESPECIALLY
TO THE SE-TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. WITH STILL COOL AIR OVER WARMER SST...MIXING OVER THE
WATER WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR GUSTS TO 35-40 KT DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WITH STRONGEST WINDS E AND S OF CAPE
COD. WE CONVERTED THE GALE WATCH TO WARNINGS...WITH SCA FOR BOS
HARBOR...NARRAGANSETT BAY AND MASS BAY. SEAS BUILD TO 10 FEET
TONIGHT OVER SOUTHERN WATERS.

SUNDAY...GUSTY SW WINDS 25-30 KT IN THE MORNING WILL BE
DIMINISHING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND DROPPING BELOW 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CONDITIONS DETERIORATE INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH RAIN OVER THE WATERS
AND EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS. VISIBILITY IMPACTS POSSIBLE. WINDS
INCREASING OUT OF THE S. SOUTHERLY WINDS GUST TO AROUND 30
KT...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO ABOUT 10+ FEET ON THE SRN OCEAN WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AT LEAST NEEDED.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WINDS TURNING SW REMAINING BLUSTERY WITH GUSTS EXCEEDING 25 KTS.
WAVES MAINTAINED WITH HEIGHTS OF 8 TO 10 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS.

WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

AN OFFSHORE STORM SYSTEM COULD BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE
WATERS YET DETAILS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ231-232.
     GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ233>235-237-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ230-236-251.
     GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ250-254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DOODY
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...KJC/DOODY
MARINE...KJC/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 220841
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
341 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES MODERATE TODAY ON GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. THIS WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY
MONDAY...BUT WITH A PERIOD OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. DRY
AND COOLER TUESDAY...THEN A COASTAL STORM MAY AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT THE TRACK IS STILL
UNCERTAIN. TURNING COLDER INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRES OFF THE MID ATLC COAST WILL RESULT IN DECENT WARM
ADVECTION TO DEVELOP TODAY. SUNSHINE WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING
MID/HIGH CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES...BUT NO PRECIP EXPECTED AS LOW LEVELS REMAIN QUITE DRY.
AFTER A COLD START TO THE DAY TEMPS WILL RECOVER NICELY BUT STILL
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. MAXES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S WITH MID 40S OVER THE CAPE/ISLANDS. LOW LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL LEAD TO
GUSTY SW WINDS DEVELOPING WITH GUSTS TO 25-35 MPH...MAINLY IN THE
COASTAL PLAIN. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ON THE CAPE/ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION AND WHILE MOISTURE
IN THE COLUMN DEEPENS IT IS STILL SOMEWHAT DRY IN THE LOW LEVELS.
A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY N ZONES WHERE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS GREATER BUT ANY PRECIP WILL BE SPOTTY AND VERY LIGHT.
THE MAIN CONCERN IS FOR ISOLATED POCKETS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN
CENTRAL/W MA AND SW NH IF ANY PRECIP DEVELOPS AS TEMPS EXPECTED TO
COOL TO NEAR FREEZING TONIGHT WHILE TEMPS ALOFT WARM WELL ABOVE
FREEZING. THIS IS NOT A CERTAINTY AS IT COULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY
AND WE WILL HAVE ONLY CHC POPS. TEMPS WILL HOLD NEARLY STEADY IN
THE 30S TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION AND NEAR 30 DEGREES
NW...BUT RISING INTO THE 40S S COAST AS GUSTY SW WINDS CONTINUE.
IN FACT...COULD SEE GUSTS TO 40 MPH ON CAPE/ISLANDS.

SUNDAY...
WEAK SFC RIDGING DEVELOPS ACROSS SNE AS MOISTURE GRADUALLY
DECREASES. EXPECT A DRY AND MILD DAY WITH MORNING CLOUDS GIVING
WAY TO PARTIAL SUNSHINE. USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR
TEMPS WITH MAXES IN THE LOW TO MID 50S...EXCEPT UPPER 40S NW
HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - TURNING WARMER AND WET MONDAY
 - A POSSIBLE MIDWEEK STORM...ESPECIALLY FOR SE NEW ENGLAND
 - LOOKING COLDER INTO LATE WEEK

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
22.00Z MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH ABOUT MID WEEK. THE KEY IS A DEVELOPING
LONGWAVE TROF...WHICH AXIS REMAINS WELL TO THE W ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS YIELDS CONTINUES STACKED SW
FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD...KEEPING THE BULK OF THE COLDER AIR TO
THE W. THE ONE PRIMARY ISSUE STILL WITHIN THE MOST UNCERTAIN
PORTION...FROM WED ONWARD...IS A NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT
OF THE PACIFIC TO THE S OF THE ALLEUTIAN ISLANDS. IT IS THIS
FEATURE WHICH IS STILL GENERATING A WAVE OF LOW PRES ALONG A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS LOW PRES
WOULD THEN PASS SOMEWHERE FROM THE S COAST TO WELL SE OF THE 40/70
BENCHMARK. THE ENVELOP OF POTENTIAL TRACKS START LATE WED INTO WED
NIGHT...AND RANGE FROM NEAR THE CAPE COD CANAL TO WELL OFFSHORE
WITH LITTLE TO NO IMPACT. THE ENSEMBLES ALL FALL IN THIS ENVELOP
WHILE THE GFS IS NEAR THE E EDGE AND THE ECMWF NEAR THE W EDGE.
THEREFORE...FEEL THAT A BLEND OF GUIDANCE WILL CONVEY BOTH THE
UNCERTAINTY AND TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE POTENTIAL SOLUTIONS. THIS
INCLUDES THERMAL PROFILES AS THE ECMWF IS SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER
THAN THE GFS.

DETAILS...

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...
WARM OCCLUSION WILL BE MOVING THROUGH EARLY MON MORNING...THIS IS
ASSOCIATED WITH PWATS BETWEEN 1.0-1.25 INCHES...MODERATE SLY LLJ
AROUND 65 KT AND K-VALUES ABOVE 30. ESSENTIALLY ALL INGREDIENTS FOR
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER RAIN AND CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS. TS WOULD BE ISOLATED...BUT NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. WILL
NEED TO MONITOR FOR THIS HEAVY RAIN THREAT UNTIL IT MOVES THROUGH
BY ABOUT MID MORNING-MID DAY MON. WILL ALSO NEED TO MONITOR FOR
STRONG WINDS THANKS TO PRECIP DRAG OR CONVECTIVE FORCING TO THE
SFC AS THE 65 KT LLJ CORE IS ONLY AT ABOUT H92. NOTE MODEST
INVERSION INITIALLY...BUT SOME MIXING OF THIS MOMENTUM IS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION. SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO THE MON NIGHT HOURS...BUT
WILL BE LIGHTER AND LESS WIDESPREAD AS THE UPPER LVL IMPULSE MOVES
THROUGH AND LOW-MID LVL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE.

TUE AND TUE NIGHT...
BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH PRES MOVES OVER FROM THE SW AND CRESTS ACROSS
THE REGION. MID LVL TEMPS STILL RELATIVELY HIGH...SO EXPECT TEMPS
MAINLY ABOVE NORMAL.

WED AND THU...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR A COASTAL LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVING
NE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK...COULD SEE JUST
SOME RAIN FOR E MA AND RI WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A BIT OF LIGHT
MIXED PRECIP TO THE INTERIOR CT/MA/SW NH...THIS IS THE E EDGE OF
THE ENVELOP REPRESENTED BY THE GFS. THE ECMWF IS MUCH WARMER AND
PASSES NEAR THE CANAL..BUT ALSO IS MORE DYNAMIC WITH MORE
PRECIPITATION. AT THIS TIME...GIVEN THE LACK OF A BLOCKING ARCTIC
HIGH AND SLIGHTLY POSITIVE AO/NAO AS THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER
NOTED...FEEL THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH WARM AIR IN PLACE FOR
RAIN/MIXED PRECIP RATHER THAN SNOW OUTRIGHT EVEN IF THE GFS OR E
TRACKING ENSEMBLES VERIFY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS
HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT WARM AIR COULD COME IN FASTER ALOFT AND THERE
WILL BE SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL FOR THE HOLIDAY.

LATE NEXT WEEK-EARLY WEEKEND...
THU-FRI COULD SEE BRIEF SHOT OF LIGHT PRECIP AS THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE EJECTS ENE...BUT BY THIS POINT DRIER AIR IS ALREADY
MOVING IN BEHIND THE COASTAL LOW. IN ANY CASE EXPECT COOLER AIR
TO BEGIN TO FILTER IN TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...VFR. MID LEVEL CIGS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON.
INCREASING SW WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 KT IN
THE COASTAL PLAIN.

TONIGHT...MAINLY LOW-END VFR CIGS DEVELOPING BUT LOW PROB FOR MVFR
WITH A FEW SHOWERS EXPECTED. ISOLATED POCKETS OF -FZRA POSSIBLE
IN W MA AND SW NH. ANY ICING WILL BE VERY LIGHT. SW WIND GUSTS TO
25-30 KT NEAR THE COAST...POSSIBLY UP TO 35 KT CAPE/ISLANDS.

SUNDAY...VFR CIGS. SW GUSTS TO 25 KT CAPE/ISLANDS IN THE
MORNING...THEN DIMINISHING WIND.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. EXPECT VFR CIGS TONIGHT BUT A
FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. SW GUSTS 25-30 KT DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE TONIGHT
BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY -FZRA. LOW PROB FOR BRIEF MVFR CIGS
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CONDITIONS DETERIORATE MVFR-LIFR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
WITH +RA AND STRONG S-WINDS WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS POSSIBLE...
OTHERWISE LLWS IMPACTS WITH 50 KT S-WINDS 2 KFT AGL. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE BY MIDDAY...BUT COULD SEE CONTINUED SW-WINDS AROUND 25 KTS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WSW-FLOW WITH MAINLY VFR.

WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

AN OFFSHORE STORM SYSTEM COULD BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ESPECIALLY
TO THE SE-TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. WITH STILL COOL AIR OVER WARMER SST...MIXING OVER THE
WATER WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR GUSTS TO 35-40 KT DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WITH STRONGEST WINDS E AND S OF CAPE
COD. WE CONVERTED THE GALE WATCH TO WARNINGS...WITH SCA FOR BOS
HARBOR...NARRAGANSETT BAY AND MASS BAY. SEAS BUILD TO 10 FEET
TONIGHT OVER SOUTHERN WATERS.

SUNDAY...GUSTY SW WINDS 25-30 KT IN THE MORNING WILL BE
DIMINISHING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND DROPPING BELOW 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CONDITIONS DETERIORATE INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH RAIN OVER THE WATERS
AND EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS. VISIBILITY IMPACTS POSSIBLE. WINDS
INCREASING OUT OF THE S. SOUTHERLY WINDS GUST TO AROUND 30
KT...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO ABOUT 10+ FEET ON THE SRN OCEAN WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AT LEAST NEEDED.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WINDS TURNING SW REMAINING BLUSTERY WITH GUSTS EXCEEDING 25 KTS.
WAVES MAINTAINED WITH HEIGHTS OF 8 TO 10 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS.

WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

AN OFFSHORE STORM SYSTEM COULD BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE
WATERS YET DETAILS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ231-232.
     GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ233>235-237-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ230-236-251.
     GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ250-254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DOODY
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...KJC/DOODY
MARINE...KJC/DOODY



000
FXUS61 KBOX 220816
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
316 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES MODERATE TODAY ON GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. THIS WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY
MONDAY...BUT WITH A PERIOD OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. DRY
AND COOLER TUESDAY...THEN A COASTAL STORM MAY AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT THE TRACK IS STILL
UNCERTAIN. TURNING COLDER INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
HIGH PRES OFF THE MID ATLC COAST WILL RESULT IN DECENT WARM
ADVECTION TO DEVELOP TODAY. SUNSHINE WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING
MID/HIGH CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES...BUT NO PRECIP EXPECTED AS LOW LEVELS REMAIN QUITE DRY.
AFTER A COLD START TO THE DAY TEMPS WILL RECOVER NICELY BUT STILL
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. MAXES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S WITH MID 40S OVER THE CAPE/ISLANDS. LOW LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL LEAD TO
GUSTY SW WINDS DEVELOPING WITH GUSTS TO 25-35 MPH...MAINLY IN THE
COASTAL PLAIN. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ON THE CAPE/ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION AND WHILE MOISTURE
IN THE COLUMN DEEPENS IT IS STILL SOMEWHAT DRY IN THE LOW LEVELS.
A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY N ZONES WHERE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS GREATER BUT ANY PRECIP WILL BE SPOTTY AND VERY LIGHT.
THE MAIN CONCERN IS FOR ISOLATED POCKETS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN
CENTRAL/W MA AND SW NH IF ANY PRECIP DEVELOPS AS TEMPS EXPECTED TO
COOL TO NEAR FREEZING TONIGHT WHILE TEMPS ALOFT WARM WELL ABOVE
FREEZING. THIS IS NOT A CERTAINTY AS IT COULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY
AND WE WILL HAVE ONLY CHC POPS. TEMPS WILL HOLD NEARLY STEADY IN
THE 30S TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION AND NEAR 30 DEGREES
NW...BUT RISING INTO THE 40S S COAST AS GUSTY SW WINDS CONTINUE.
IN FACT...COULD SEE GUSTS TO 40 MPH ON CAPE/ISLANDS.

SUNDAY...
WEAK SFC RIDGING DEVELOPS ACROSS SNE AS MOISTURE GRADUALLY
DECREASES. EXPECT A DRY AND MILD DAY WITH MORNING CLOUDS GIVING
WAY TO PARTIAL SUNSHINE. USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR
TEMPS WITH MAXES IN THE LOW TO MID 50S...EXCEPT UPPER 40S NW
HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - TURNING WARMER AND WET MONDAY
 - A POSSIBLE MIDWEEK STORM...ESPECIALLY FOR SE NEW ENGLAND
 - LOOKING COLDER INTO THANKSGIVING

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL CONSENSUS...

TRENDING +AO/NAO WITH NEAR-NEUTRAL PNA SUGGESTS A MORE PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN AND MILD. NO SURPRISE TO SEE A LACK OF DEEP CLOSED-LOW H5
DISTURBANCES...THOUGH AN ACTIVE PATTERN WITH ABUNDANCE OF PACIFIC-
ORIGIN WAVES MAINTAINING TROUGHING BETWEEN SECTORS OF ABOVE-AVERAGE
OCEAN TEMPERATURES OVER THE NE-PACIFIC AND NW-ATLANTIC.

SOME OF THOSE WAVES ARE WELL OUT IN THE PACIFIC AND HAVE NOT EVEN
BEEN SAMPLED. THE WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WINTER-STORM POTENTIAL
FOR THE MIDWEEK / THANKSGIVING PERIOD IS JUST S OF THE FURTHEST E
ALEUTAIN ISLANDS OF ALASKA. NOTING THIS...HAVE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE
THROUGH EARLY-NEXT WEEK WITH THE FORECAST...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE FOR A
POTENTIAL MIDWEEK STORM. WILL HIT UP THE DETAILS BELOW.

SUNDAY NIGHT...

WARM-FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING BROADSCALE LIFT AHEAD OF A DEEPENING LOW
ACROSS THE C-CONUS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION BECOMES THE FOCUS
FOR RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. NON-DIURNAL WARMING TREND OVERNIGHT. ALL-
RAIN EVENT. MAIN CONCERNS ARE WITH BOTH WINDS AND RAIN.

WITH WINDS: STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET CENTERED AROUND MONDAY MORNING WITH
WINDS 1-2 KFT AGL MODEL-CONSENSUS AVERAGING AROUND 50 MPH /45 KTS/.
SUGGESTED BOUNDARY-LAYER DECOUPLING BENEATH MUCH WARMER AIR BETWEEN
H925-85. BUT IF 2M TEMPERATURES ARE WARMER AS FORECAST FOR SUNDAY
COULD BE WARMER SUNDAY NIGHT AIDING IN LOW-LEVEL MIXING. ALSO NEED
TO CONSIDER ANY HEAVY RAIN WHICH COULD ALSO AID WITH DRAGGING FASTER
MOMENTUM TO THE SURFACE. OVERALL: MAIN CONCERN ACROSS SE NEW ENGLAND
AND HIGH TERRAIN ABOVE 1 KFT. WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE NECESSARY. CIPS
ANALOG GUIDANCE HAS JUST ABOVE 50-PERCENT FOR WINDS > 35 MPH.

WITH RAIN: BROADSCALE ASCENT OF THE WARM-CONVEYER-BELT WITH PWATS UP
TO 1.5-INCHES AND ANOMALOUS HIGH-THETAE AIR. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
NOSE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET TO THE PARENT WARM-FRONT. EXPECT A BROAD
NW-SE BAND OF RAIN WITH PERHAPS AN EMBEDDED LINE OF HEAVIER RAIN. IT
MOVES THROUGH NOTABLY QUICK. MODEL-CONSENSUS AVERAGE RAIN AMOUNTS
ARE AROUND 0.50 - 0.75 INCHES. AM NOT EXPECTING ANY FLOOD ISSUES.

INTO MONDAY...

RAINS FOR THE MORNING...IMPROVING AFTERNOON. IF WE CLEAR AS H925
TEMPERATURES WARM TO +14C THEN WE COULD POSSIBLY SEE HIGHS INTO THE
MID- TO UPPER-60S /+18C/ POSSIBLY TO NEAR 70. MODEL-CONSENSUS H925
WINDS AVERAGE AROUND 45 MPH /40 KTS/ AND WITH WARMER CONDITIONS
COULD SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR MIXING OUT TO H9 AND MOMENTUM MIX-DOWN.
WILL HINT AT THIS IN THE FORECAST...BUT MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

WILL GO WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS...BUT THE MAIN PUMP OF MOISTURE
SHOULD BE WELL OFFSHORE. OTHERWISE THE MAIN COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO
THE DEEPENING LOW LIFTING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION SWEEPS
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. EXPECTING DRY AND COOLER WEATHER FOR TUESDAY...
PERHAPS CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...

JUST TOO EARLY TO SAY. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS VARY
CONSIDERABLY WITH SURFACE LOW CENTERS AROUND THE ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH
KEY UPON A LOW SE OF THE 40N / 70W BENCHMARK AROUND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HAVE CONCERNS FOR SE NEW ENGLAND WHICH COULD SEE THE GREATEST IMPACT
WHILE NOTING A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER S-CANADA /WITH THE CENTER
OVER THE C-CONUS/. THE GFS-UPGRADED /T1534/ IS A FAR OUTLIER AND IS
NOT CONSIDERED WITH THIS FORECAST.

EVALUATING SYNOPTICS...THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A COASTAL STORM
BUT MORE OF A WAVE LOW ALONG THE OFFSHORE STALLED FRONT. AS BEEN THE
CASE THIS YEAR...COLD AIR HAS BEEN PLUNGING INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS
BUT ITS TRUE BITE REMAINS MAINLY N/W OF OUR REGION. DO HAVE SOME
CONFIDENCE THAT THE WAVE LOW WILL HUG CLOSER TO THE COAST. THEN IT
COMES TO BREAKING DOWN TIMING / ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS / THERMAL FIELDS
WHICH RIGHT NOW ARE AGAIN TOO EARLY TO DIAGNOSE. THERE HAS BEEN A
CONSISTENT SIGNAL. STORM BEARS WATCHING.

EXPECTING A RETURN OF ARCTIC AIR BEHIND WHATEVER MIDWEEK SYSTEM THAT
MAY EMERGE. DAY 6-8 CIPS ANALOGS HAVE HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW-
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE SE-CONUS INTO THE OHIO-RIVER VALLEY
CENTERED AROUND THE LATE-THANKSGIVING WEEK PERIOD. EC ENSEMBLES AT
H85 HAVE THE FREEZING MARK PLUNGING TO NEARLY THE GULF COAST...WITH
-10C AIR INTO NEW ENGLAND BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...VFR. MID LEVEL CIGS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON.
INCREASING SW WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 KT IN
THE COASTAL PLAIN.

TONIGHT...MAINLY LOW-END VFR CIGS DEVELOPING BUT LOW PROB FOR MVFR
WITH A FEW SHOWERS EXPECTED. ISOLATED POCKETS OF -FZRA POSSIBLE
IN W MA AND SW NH. ANY ICING WILL BE VERY LIGHT. SW WIND GUSTS TO
25-30 KT NEAR THE COAST...POSSIBLY UP TO 35 KT CAPE/ISLANDS.

SUNDAY...VFR CIGS. SW GUSTS TO 25 KT CAPE/ISLANDS IN THE
MORNING...THEN DIMINISHING WIND.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. EXPECT VFR CIGS TONIGHT BUT A
FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. SW GUSTS 25-30 KT DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE TONIGHT
BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY -FZRA. LOW PROB FOR BRIEF MVFR CIGS
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CONDITIONS DETERIORATE MVFR-LIFR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
WITH +RA AND STRONG S-WINDS WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS POSSIBLE...
OTHERWISE LLWS IMPACTS WITH 50 KT S-WINDS 2 KFT AGL. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE BY MIDDAY...BUT COULD SEE CONTINUED SW-WINDS AROUND 25 KTS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

W-FLOW WITH MAINLY VFR.

WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

AN OFFSHORE STORM SYSTEM COULD BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ESPECIALLY
TO THE SE-TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. WITH STILL COOL AIR OVER WARMER SST...MIXING OVER THE
WATER WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR GUSTS TO 35-40 KT DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WITH STRONGEST WINDS E AND S OF CAPE
COD. WE CONVERTED THE GALE WATCH TO WARNINGS...WITH SCA FOR BOS
HARBOR...NARRAGANSETT BAY AND MASS BAY. SEAS BUILD TO 10 FEET
TONIGHT OVER SOUTHERN WATERS.

SUNDAY...GUSTY SW WINDS 25-30 KT IN THE MORNING WILL BE
DIMINISHING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND DROPPING BELOW 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CONDITIONS DETERIORATE INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH RAIN OVER THE WATERS
AND EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS. VISIBILITY IMPACTS POSSIBLE. WINDS
INCREASING OUT OF THE S. GUSTS EXCEEDING GALE FORCE APPEAR LIKELY.
WAVES SUBSEQUENTLY INCREASING TO 10 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WINDS TURNING SW REMAINING BLUSTERY WITH GUSTS EXCEEDING 25 KTS.
WAVES MAINTAINED WITH HEIGHTS OF 8 TO 10 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS.

WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

AN OFFSHORE STORM SYSTEM COULD BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE
WATERS YET DETAILS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ231-232.
     GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ233>235-237-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ230-236-251.
     GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ250-254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DOODY
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...KJC/DOODY
MARINE...KJC/DOODY



000
FXUS61 KBOX 220816
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
316 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES MODERATE TODAY ON GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. THIS WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY
MONDAY...BUT WITH A PERIOD OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. DRY
AND COOLER TUESDAY...THEN A COASTAL STORM MAY AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT THE TRACK IS STILL
UNCERTAIN. TURNING COLDER INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
HIGH PRES OFF THE MID ATLC COAST WILL RESULT IN DECENT WARM
ADVECTION TO DEVELOP TODAY. SUNSHINE WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING
MID/HIGH CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES...BUT NO PRECIP EXPECTED AS LOW LEVELS REMAIN QUITE DRY.
AFTER A COLD START TO THE DAY TEMPS WILL RECOVER NICELY BUT STILL
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. MAXES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S WITH MID 40S OVER THE CAPE/ISLANDS. LOW LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL LEAD TO
GUSTY SW WINDS DEVELOPING WITH GUSTS TO 25-35 MPH...MAINLY IN THE
COASTAL PLAIN. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ON THE CAPE/ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION AND WHILE MOISTURE
IN THE COLUMN DEEPENS IT IS STILL SOMEWHAT DRY IN THE LOW LEVELS.
A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY N ZONES WHERE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS GREATER BUT ANY PRECIP WILL BE SPOTTY AND VERY LIGHT.
THE MAIN CONCERN IS FOR ISOLATED POCKETS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN
CENTRAL/W MA AND SW NH IF ANY PRECIP DEVELOPS AS TEMPS EXPECTED TO
COOL TO NEAR FREEZING TONIGHT WHILE TEMPS ALOFT WARM WELL ABOVE
FREEZING. THIS IS NOT A CERTAINTY AS IT COULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY
AND WE WILL HAVE ONLY CHC POPS. TEMPS WILL HOLD NEARLY STEADY IN
THE 30S TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION AND NEAR 30 DEGREES
NW...BUT RISING INTO THE 40S S COAST AS GUSTY SW WINDS CONTINUE.
IN FACT...COULD SEE GUSTS TO 40 MPH ON CAPE/ISLANDS.

SUNDAY...
WEAK SFC RIDGING DEVELOPS ACROSS SNE AS MOISTURE GRADUALLY
DECREASES. EXPECT A DRY AND MILD DAY WITH MORNING CLOUDS GIVING
WAY TO PARTIAL SUNSHINE. USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR
TEMPS WITH MAXES IN THE LOW TO MID 50S...EXCEPT UPPER 40S NW
HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - TURNING WARMER AND WET MONDAY
 - A POSSIBLE MIDWEEK STORM...ESPECIALLY FOR SE NEW ENGLAND
 - LOOKING COLDER INTO THANKSGIVING

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL CONSENSUS...

TRENDING +AO/NAO WITH NEAR-NEUTRAL PNA SUGGESTS A MORE PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN AND MILD. NO SURPRISE TO SEE A LACK OF DEEP CLOSED-LOW H5
DISTURBANCES...THOUGH AN ACTIVE PATTERN WITH ABUNDANCE OF PACIFIC-
ORIGIN WAVES MAINTAINING TROUGHING BETWEEN SECTORS OF ABOVE-AVERAGE
OCEAN TEMPERATURES OVER THE NE-PACIFIC AND NW-ATLANTIC.

SOME OF THOSE WAVES ARE WELL OUT IN THE PACIFIC AND HAVE NOT EVEN
BEEN SAMPLED. THE WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WINTER-STORM POTENTIAL
FOR THE MIDWEEK / THANKSGIVING PERIOD IS JUST S OF THE FURTHEST E
ALEUTAIN ISLANDS OF ALASKA. NOTING THIS...HAVE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE
THROUGH EARLY-NEXT WEEK WITH THE FORECAST...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE FOR A
POTENTIAL MIDWEEK STORM. WILL HIT UP THE DETAILS BELOW.

SUNDAY NIGHT...

WARM-FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING BROADSCALE LIFT AHEAD OF A DEEPENING LOW
ACROSS THE C-CONUS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION BECOMES THE FOCUS
FOR RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. NON-DIURNAL WARMING TREND OVERNIGHT. ALL-
RAIN EVENT. MAIN CONCERNS ARE WITH BOTH WINDS AND RAIN.

WITH WINDS: STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET CENTERED AROUND MONDAY MORNING WITH
WINDS 1-2 KFT AGL MODEL-CONSENSUS AVERAGING AROUND 50 MPH /45 KTS/.
SUGGESTED BOUNDARY-LAYER DECOUPLING BENEATH MUCH WARMER AIR BETWEEN
H925-85. BUT IF 2M TEMPERATURES ARE WARMER AS FORECAST FOR SUNDAY
COULD BE WARMER SUNDAY NIGHT AIDING IN LOW-LEVEL MIXING. ALSO NEED
TO CONSIDER ANY HEAVY RAIN WHICH COULD ALSO AID WITH DRAGGING FASTER
MOMENTUM TO THE SURFACE. OVERALL: MAIN CONCERN ACROSS SE NEW ENGLAND
AND HIGH TERRAIN ABOVE 1 KFT. WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE NECESSARY. CIPS
ANALOG GUIDANCE HAS JUST ABOVE 50-PERCENT FOR WINDS > 35 MPH.

WITH RAIN: BROADSCALE ASCENT OF THE WARM-CONVEYER-BELT WITH PWATS UP
TO 1.5-INCHES AND ANOMALOUS HIGH-THETAE AIR. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
NOSE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET TO THE PARENT WARM-FRONT. EXPECT A BROAD
NW-SE BAND OF RAIN WITH PERHAPS AN EMBEDDED LINE OF HEAVIER RAIN. IT
MOVES THROUGH NOTABLY QUICK. MODEL-CONSENSUS AVERAGE RAIN AMOUNTS
ARE AROUND 0.50 - 0.75 INCHES. AM NOT EXPECTING ANY FLOOD ISSUES.

INTO MONDAY...

RAINS FOR THE MORNING...IMPROVING AFTERNOON. IF WE CLEAR AS H925
TEMPERATURES WARM TO +14C THEN WE COULD POSSIBLY SEE HIGHS INTO THE
MID- TO UPPER-60S /+18C/ POSSIBLY TO NEAR 70. MODEL-CONSENSUS H925
WINDS AVERAGE AROUND 45 MPH /40 KTS/ AND WITH WARMER CONDITIONS
COULD SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR MIXING OUT TO H9 AND MOMENTUM MIX-DOWN.
WILL HINT AT THIS IN THE FORECAST...BUT MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

WILL GO WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS...BUT THE MAIN PUMP OF MOISTURE
SHOULD BE WELL OFFSHORE. OTHERWISE THE MAIN COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO
THE DEEPENING LOW LIFTING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION SWEEPS
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. EXPECTING DRY AND COOLER WEATHER FOR TUESDAY...
PERHAPS CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...

JUST TOO EARLY TO SAY. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS VARY
CONSIDERABLY WITH SURFACE LOW CENTERS AROUND THE ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH
KEY UPON A LOW SE OF THE 40N / 70W BENCHMARK AROUND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HAVE CONCERNS FOR SE NEW ENGLAND WHICH COULD SEE THE GREATEST IMPACT
WHILE NOTING A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER S-CANADA /WITH THE CENTER
OVER THE C-CONUS/. THE GFS-UPGRADED /T1534/ IS A FAR OUTLIER AND IS
NOT CONSIDERED WITH THIS FORECAST.

EVALUATING SYNOPTICS...THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A COASTAL STORM
BUT MORE OF A WAVE LOW ALONG THE OFFSHORE STALLED FRONT. AS BEEN THE
CASE THIS YEAR...COLD AIR HAS BEEN PLUNGING INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS
BUT ITS TRUE BITE REMAINS MAINLY N/W OF OUR REGION. DO HAVE SOME
CONFIDENCE THAT THE WAVE LOW WILL HUG CLOSER TO THE COAST. THEN IT
COMES TO BREAKING DOWN TIMING / ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS / THERMAL FIELDS
WHICH RIGHT NOW ARE AGAIN TOO EARLY TO DIAGNOSE. THERE HAS BEEN A
CONSISTENT SIGNAL. STORM BEARS WATCHING.

EXPECTING A RETURN OF ARCTIC AIR BEHIND WHATEVER MIDWEEK SYSTEM THAT
MAY EMERGE. DAY 6-8 CIPS ANALOGS HAVE HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW-
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE SE-CONUS INTO THE OHIO-RIVER VALLEY
CENTERED AROUND THE LATE-THANKSGIVING WEEK PERIOD. EC ENSEMBLES AT
H85 HAVE THE FREEZING MARK PLUNGING TO NEARLY THE GULF COAST...WITH
-10C AIR INTO NEW ENGLAND BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...VFR. MID LEVEL CIGS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON.
INCREASING SW WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 KT IN
THE COASTAL PLAIN.

TONIGHT...MAINLY LOW-END VFR CIGS DEVELOPING BUT LOW PROB FOR MVFR
WITH A FEW SHOWERS EXPECTED. ISOLATED POCKETS OF -FZRA POSSIBLE
IN W MA AND SW NH. ANY ICING WILL BE VERY LIGHT. SW WIND GUSTS TO
25-30 KT NEAR THE COAST...POSSIBLY UP TO 35 KT CAPE/ISLANDS.

SUNDAY...VFR CIGS. SW GUSTS TO 25 KT CAPE/ISLANDS IN THE
MORNING...THEN DIMINISHING WIND.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. EXPECT VFR CIGS TONIGHT BUT A
FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. SW GUSTS 25-30 KT DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE TONIGHT
BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY -FZRA. LOW PROB FOR BRIEF MVFR CIGS
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CONDITIONS DETERIORATE MVFR-LIFR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
WITH +RA AND STRONG S-WINDS WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS POSSIBLE...
OTHERWISE LLWS IMPACTS WITH 50 KT S-WINDS 2 KFT AGL. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE BY MIDDAY...BUT COULD SEE CONTINUED SW-WINDS AROUND 25 KTS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

W-FLOW WITH MAINLY VFR.

WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

AN OFFSHORE STORM SYSTEM COULD BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ESPECIALLY
TO THE SE-TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. WITH STILL COOL AIR OVER WARMER SST...MIXING OVER THE
WATER WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR GUSTS TO 35-40 KT DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WITH STRONGEST WINDS E AND S OF CAPE
COD. WE CONVERTED THE GALE WATCH TO WARNINGS...WITH SCA FOR BOS
HARBOR...NARRAGANSETT BAY AND MASS BAY. SEAS BUILD TO 10 FEET
TONIGHT OVER SOUTHERN WATERS.

SUNDAY...GUSTY SW WINDS 25-30 KT IN THE MORNING WILL BE
DIMINISHING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND DROPPING BELOW 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CONDITIONS DETERIORATE INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH RAIN OVER THE WATERS
AND EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS. VISIBILITY IMPACTS POSSIBLE. WINDS
INCREASING OUT OF THE S. GUSTS EXCEEDING GALE FORCE APPEAR LIKELY.
WAVES SUBSEQUENTLY INCREASING TO 10 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WINDS TURNING SW REMAINING BLUSTERY WITH GUSTS EXCEEDING 25 KTS.
WAVES MAINTAINED WITH HEIGHTS OF 8 TO 10 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS.

WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

AN OFFSHORE STORM SYSTEM COULD BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE
WATERS YET DETAILS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ231-232.
     GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ233>235-237-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ230-236-251.
     GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ250-254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DOODY
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...KJC/DOODY
MARINE...KJC/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 220603
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
103 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A DRY BUT VERY COLD NIGHT...TEMPERATURES MODERATE SOME
SATURDAY ON GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A
SIGNIFICANT WARM UP SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY...BUT WITH A
PERIOD OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. QUIET FOR TUESDAY BUT
CONDITIONS MAY CHANGE BY WEDNESDAY WITH THE THREAT OF A STORM
SYSTEM. TURNING COLDER INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
1 AM UPDATE...
CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS SNE. UPDATED T/TD GRIDS FOR CURRENT
TRENDS...OTHERWISE FORECAST ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRES IN CONTROL BRINGING CLEAR AND DIMINISHING WIND. SOME
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SPILLING INTO THE BERKSHIRES MAY BRING A FEW
CLOUDS TO W MA THROUGH 06Z THEN LOW LEVEL DRYING TAKES PLACE.
EXPECT A NICE SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING ACROSS THE INTERIOR AS
WINDS CONTINUE TO DECOUPLE RESULTING IN LOWS INTO THE TEENS...WITH
SINGLE DIGITS POSSIBLE ACROSS NW MA AND SW NH...WELL BELOW-NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MILDEST READINGS IN THE 20S WILL BE IN
BOS...OUTER CAPE/ISLANDS AND AREAS ADJACENT TO NARRAGANSETT BAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC ALLOWING FOR STRONG MID
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION TO DEVELOP. THE RESPONSE WILL BE AN INCREASE
IN MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS AS THE DAY WEARS ON...BUT IT WILL
REMAIN DRY GIVEN THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

DESPITE THE WARM ADVECTION ALOFT...IT WILL TAKE TIME FOR THAT TO BE
COMPLETELY REALIZED AT THE SURFACE. WHILE IT WILL BE MILDER THAN
TODAY...HIGH TEMPS WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S WITH SOME MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S ON THE CAPE
AND ISLANDS. HOWEVER...EXPECTING SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30
MPH TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND PERHAPS A BIT STRONGER ALONG
THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS WILL STILL MAKE IT FEEL
RATHER CHILLY OUTSIDE FOR NOVEMBER STANDARDS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...

A MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SAT NIGHT.
THERE STILL SHOULD BE ENOUGH FORCING TO BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SCATTERED LIGHT PRECIPITATION. WHILE IT CERTAINLY WILL BE TOO
WARM ALOFT FOR ANY SNOW...THE BIGGEST QUESTION IS WILL IT BE COLD
ENOUGH AT THE SURFACE FOR SOME POCKETS OF SPOTTY LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN ACROSS THE INTERIOR. ITS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE AND WILL NEED TO
BE WATCHED...BUT ITS NOT AN IDEAL SETUP. THERE IS A LOT OF WIND
OFF THE DECK AND PROBABLY ENOUGH TO PREVENT MOST AREAS FROM
DECOUPLING. GIVEN WERE +4C AT 850 MB SOME OF THIS MILDER AIR WILL
BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN. THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL LIGHT ICING
THREAT...BUT STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED POCKETS IN THE
DEEPER VALLEY LOCATIONS. LOW TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE UPPER 20S
TO MIDDLE 30S DURING THE EVENING...BUT SHOULD RISE SOME OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - TURNING WARMER AND WET MONDAY
 - A POSSIBLE MIDWEEK STORM...ESPECIALLY FOR SE NEW ENGLAND
 - LOOKING COLDER INTO THANKSGIVING

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL CONSENSUS...

TRENDING +AO/NAO WITH NEAR-NEUTRAL PNA SUGGESTS A MORE PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN AND MILD. NO SURPRISE TO SEE A LACK OF DEEP CLOSED-LOW H5
DISTURBANCES...THOUGH AN ACTIVE PATTERN WITH ABUNDANCE OF PACIFIC-
ORIGIN WAVES MAINTAINING TROUGHING BETWEEN SECTORS OF ABOVE-AVERAGE
OCEAN TEMPERATURES OVER THE NE-PACIFIC AND NW-ATLANTIC.

SOME OF THOSE WAVES ARE WELL OUT IN THE PACIFIC AND HAVE NOT EVEN
BEEN SAMPLED. THE WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WINTER-STORM POTENTIAL
FOR THE MIDWEEK / THANKSGIVING PERIOD IS JUST S OF THE FURTHEST E
ALEUTAIN ISLANDS OF ALASKA. NOTING THIS...HAVE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE
THROUGH EARLY-NEXT WEEK WITH THE FORECAST...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE FOR A
POTENTIAL MIDWEEK STORM. WILL HIT UP THE DETAILS BELOW.

SO FOR SUNDAY...

CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK TROUGH DISTURBANCE.
DISSIPATING BENEATH A MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE / SUBSIDENCE. BENEATH
THE WARM-SECTOR AND RETURN S-FLOW ROUND THE HIGH PUSHING OFF INTO
THE ATLANTIC...H925 TEMPERATURES NEARLY +10C...MAY SEE HIGHS WARM
WELL INTO THE 50S WITH ANY SUNSHINE.

AS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...

WARM-FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING BROADSCALE LIFT AHEAD OF A DEEPENING LOW
ACROSS THE C-CONUS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION BECOMES THE FOCUS
FOR RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. NON-DIURNAL WARMING TREND OVERNIGHT. ALL-
RAIN EVENT. MAIN CONCERNS ARE WITH BOTH WINDS AND RAIN.

WITH WINDS: STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET CENTERED AROUND MONDAY MORNING WITH
WINDS 1-2 KFT AGL MODEL-CONSENSUS AVERAGING AROUND 50 MPH /45 KTS/.
SUGGESTED BOUNDARY-LAYER DECOUPLING BENEATH MUCH WARMER AIR BETWEEN
H925-85. BUT IF 2M TEMPERATURES ARE WARMER AS FORECAST FOR SUNDAY
COULD BE WARMER SUNDAY NIGHT AIDING IN LOW-LEVEL MIXING. ALSO NEED
TO CONSIDER ANY HEAVY RAIN WHICH COULD ALSO AID WITH DRAGGING FASTER
MOMENTUM TO THE SURFACE. OVERALL: MAIN CONCERN ACROSS SE NEW ENGLAND
AND HIGH TERRAIN ABOVE 1 KFT. WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE NECESSARY. CIPS
ANALOG GUIDANCE HAS JUST ABOVE 50-PERCENT FOR WINDS > 35 MPH.

WITH RAIN: BROADSCALE ASCENT OF THE WARM-CONVEYER-BELT WITH PWATS UP
TO 1.5-INCHES AND ANOMALOUS HIGH-THETAE AIR. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
NOSE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET TO THE PARENT WARM-FRONT. EXPECT A BROAD
NW-SE BAND OF RAIN WITH PERHAPS AN EMBEDDED LINE OF HEAVIER RAIN. IT
MOVES THROUGH NOTABLY QUICK. MODEL-CONSENSUS AVERAGE RAIN AMOUNTS
ARE AROUND 0.50 - 0.75 INCHES. AM NOT EXPECTING ANY FLOOD ISSUES.

INTO MONDAY...

RAINS FOR THE MORNING...IMPROVING AFTERNOON. IF WE CLEAR AS H925
TEMPERATURES WARM TO +14C THEN WE COULD POSSIBLY SEE HIGHS INTO THE
MID- TO UPPER-60S /+18C/ POSSIBLY TO NEAR 70. MODEL-CONSENSUS H925
WINDS AVERAGE AROUND 45 MPH /40 KTS/ AND WITH WARMER CONDITIONS
COULD SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR MIXING OUT TO H9 AND MOMENTUM MIX-DOWN.
WILL HINT AT THIS IN THE FORECAST...BUT MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

WILL GO WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS...BUT THE MAIN PUMP OF MOISTURE
SHOULD BE WELL OFFSHORE. OTHERWISE THE MAIN COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO
THE DEEPENING LOW LIFTING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION SWEEPS
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. EXPECTING DRY AND COOLER WEATHER FOR TUESDAY...
PERHAPS CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...

JUST TOO EARLY TO SAY. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS VARY
CONSIDERABLY WITH SURFACE LOW CENTERS AROUND THE ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH
KEY UPON A LOW SE OF THE 40N / 70W BENCHMARK AROUND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HAVE CONCERNS FOR SE NEW ENGLAND WHICH COULD SEE THE GREATEST IMPACT
WHILE NOTING A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER S-CANADA /WITH THE CENTER
OVER THE C-CONUS/. THE GFS-UPGRADED /T1534/ IS A FAR OUTLIER AND IS
NOT CONSIDERED WITH THIS FORECAST.

EVALUATING SYNOPTICS...THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A COASTAL STORM
BUT MORE OF A WAVE LOW ALONG THE OFFSHORE STALLED FRONT. AS BEEN THE
CASE THIS YEAR...COLD AIR HAS BEEN PLUNGING INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS
BUT ITS TRUE BITE REMAINS MAINLY N/W OF OUR REGION. DO HAVE SOME
CONFIDENCE THAT THE WAVE LOW WILL HUG CLOSER TO THE COAST. THEN IT
COMES TO BREAKING DOWN TIMING / ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS / THERMAL FIELDS
WHICH RIGHT NOW ARE AGAIN TOO EARLY TO DIAGNOSE. THERE HAS BEEN A
CONSISTENT SIGNAL. STORM BEARS WATCHING.

EXPECTING A RETURN OF ARCTIC AIR BEHIND WHATEVER MIDWEEK SYSTEM THAT
MAY EMERGE. DAY 6-8 CIPS ANALOGS HAVE HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW-
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE SE-CONUS INTO THE OHIO-RIVER VALLEY
CENTERED AROUND THE LATE-THANKSGIVING WEEK PERIOD. EC ENSEMBLES AT
H85 HAVE THE FREEZING MARK PLUNGING TO NEARLY THE GULF COAST...WITH
-10C AIR INTO NEW ENGLAND BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...VFR. MID LEVEL CIGS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON.
INCREASING SW WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 KT IN
THE COASTAL PLAIN.

TONIGHT...MAINLY LOW-END VFR CIGS DEVELOPING BUT LOW PROB FOR MVFR
WITH A FEW SHOWERS EXPECTED. ISOLATED POCKETS OF -FZRA POSSIBLE
IN W MA AND SW NH. ANY ICING WILL BE VERY LIGHT. SW WIND GUSTS TO
25-30 KT NEAR THE COAST...POSSIBLY UP TO 35 KT CAPE/ISLANDS.

SUNDAY...VFR CIGS. SW GUSTS TO 25 KT CAPE/ISLANDS IN THE
MORNING...THEN DIMINISHING WIND.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. EXPECT VFR CIGS TONIGHT BUT A
FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. SW GUSTS 25-30 KT DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE TONIGHT
BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY -FZRA. LOW PROB FOR BRIEF MVFR CIGS
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CONDITIONS DETERIORATE MVFR-LIFR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
WITH +RA AND STRONG S-WINDS WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS POSSIBLE...
OTHERWISE LLWS IMPACTS WITH 50 KT S-WINDS 2 KFT AGL. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE BY MIDDAY...BUT COULD SEE CONTINUED SW-WINDS AROUND 25 KTS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

W-FLOW WITH MAINLY VFR.

WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

AN OFFSHORE STORM SYSTEM COULD BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ESPECIALLY
TO THE SE-TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

7 PM UPDATE...

WILL ALLOW THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO DROP ON BOSTON HARBOR AND
NARRAGANSETT BAY...BUT PREVAIL ALL OTHER WATERS TOWARDS SATURDAY
MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION ALLOWING WINDS TO
GRADUALLY RELAX OUT OF THE W/NW.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES E ALLOWING FOR A FAST-FLOWING RETURN SW-FLOW
OF AIR OVER THE WATERS. COLDER AIR OVER WATER WATERS...EXPECT SW-
GUSTS POSSIBLY EXCEEDING GALE FORCE LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT.

GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE THREAT OF GUSTS OVER THE PERIOD OF
35 KTS. SEAS LIKELY BUILDING 6 TO 9 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE S/SE-WATERS. WILL ALLOW THE OVERNIGHT SHIFT TO
EVALUATE AS TO WHETHER TO GO WITH GALE WARNINGS OR HIGH-END
SMALL-CRAFT ADVISORIES.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CONDITIONS IMPROVING AS SW-WINDS TURN S AND RELAX. WILL SEE WAVE
ACTION DISSIPATE BELOW SMALL-CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CONDITIONS DETERIORATE INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH RAIN OVER THE WATERS
AND EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS. VISIBILITY IMPACTS POSSIBLE. WINDS
INCREASING OUT OF THE S. GUSTS EXCEEDING GALE FORCE APPEAR LIKELY.
WAVES SUBSEQUENTLY INCREASING TO 10 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WINDS TURNING SW REMAINING BLUSTERY WITH GUSTS EXCEEDING 25 KTS.
WAVES MAINTAINED WITH HEIGHTS OF 8 TO 10 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS.

WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

AN OFFSHORE STORM SYSTEM COULD BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE
WATERS YET DETAILS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR
     ANZ231>235-237-250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ232>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ231-
     251-255-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ250-
     254.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...KJC/SIPPRELL
MARINE...FRANK/SIPPRELL




000
FXUS61 KALY 220542
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1242 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS WILL END OVERNIGHT...WITH MAINLY COLD CONDITIONS FOR THE
REST OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.  A WARM FRONT WILL
BRING A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE REGION LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING MILDER AIR TO THE REGION
FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH SOME
RAINFALL AS WELL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1245 AM EST...VERY COLD CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS MOST THE
REGION WITH A SFC ANTICYCLONE RIDGING IN FROM THE SOUTH. A BAND OF
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES IS LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE TUG HILL
PLATEAU WITH THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW BACKING. A FEW OF THESE SNOW
SHOWERS ARE GETTING INTO THE WRN DACKS WITH LIGHT ACCUMS OF A
COATING TO A HALF AN INCH EXPECTED FOR NRN HERKIMER CTY. SOME OF
THE CLOUDS WILL SPILL INTO THE LAKE GEORGE REGION AND SW VT OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT THE SKIES SHOULD CLEAR THEREAFTER WITH
LOWS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FCST AREA IN THE TEENS WITH SOME SINGLE
DIGITS OVER THE NRN TIER /SRN DACKS...SRN GREENS AND LAKE GEORGE
REGION/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AFTER A COLD AND DRY START...CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE
WEST FOR DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. OUR REGION WILL BE INFLUENCED BY
FAST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AT 500 HPA...AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BE
MOVING TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES. 850 HPA TEMPS WILL
BE RAPIDLY WARMING THROUGH THE DAY THANKS TO WARM AIR
ADVECTION...AND 850 HPA TEMPS WILL RISE TO OR ABOVE FREEZING IN
MANY AREAS BY THE AFTN HOURS.

WITH THE ISENTROPIC LIFT/WARM AIR ADVECTION UNDERWAY...SOME LIGHT
PRECIP WILL BREAK OUT FROM WEST TO EAST LATE IN THE DAY AND
CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING PRECIP
WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA /NORTH OF I-90/...CLOSER
TO THE LARGE SCALE FORCING. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD
OF LIGHT SNOW FOR THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS TO START...MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL BE IN THE FORM OF A
WINTRY MIX CHANGING TO RAIN. IN MANY NORTHERN AREAS...THERE WILL
BE A PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIP /SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN/...WHICH WILL
EVENTUALLY CHANGE TO JUST A COLD PLAIN RAIN OVERNIGHT. FOR SOME
AREAS...INCLUDING THE GREATER CAPITAL REGION...TEMPS ON SAT MAY
RISE JUST ABOVE FREEZING...AND THEN HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE FOR
SAT NIGHT...AND PRECIP MAY WIND UP ONLY BEING IN THE FORM OF A
PLAIN COLD RAIN. ALL MEMBERS OF THE 15Z SREF SUGGEST THIS EVENT
WILL BE LIQUID FOR ALBANY...AND EVEN THE 12Z GEFS SHOW A LIMITED
WINDOW FOR MIXED PRECIP AT ALBANY AS WELL. THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING MIXED PRECIP WILL BE FOR THE ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE
SARATOGA REGION...SRN VT...TACONICS AND THE BERKSHIRES. EVEN IN
THE HIGH TERRAIN...LIGHT QPF WILL PREVENT ICE ACCRETION FROM BEING
MORE THAN JUST A COATING TO A TENTH OF AN INCH...WITH JUST A
COATING OF SNOW/SLEET POSSIBLE FOR HIGH TERRAIN AREAS AS WELL.

TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 30S FOR MANY AREAS ON
SATURDAY. ON SAT NIGHT...TEMPS WILL HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME OUT OF THE
S-SW AND BRING MILDER AIR INTO THE REGION.

ANY PRECIP LOOKS TO END BY SUNDAY MORNING...BUT IT WILL PROBABLY
REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...AS A LINGERING
BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER THE AREA. WE CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
RAIN SHOWER AROUND DUE TO THE SFC BOUNDARY NEARBY...BUT MOST AREAS
LOOK TO STAY DRY ON SUNDAY. THERE MAY BE SOME CLEARING LATE IN THE
DAY...MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN AREAS. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE SHORT
LIVED...AS YET ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE
SOUTH AND WEST. TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY MILDER ON SUNDAY...WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S TO LOW 50S.

THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE A MUCH STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CUTTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS STORM WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA LATE ON SUN
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. A WIDESPREAD STEADY RAINFALL WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA...AND PRECIP WILL BE IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAIN
EVERYWHERE DUE TO WARM TEMPS ALOFT. 850 HPA TEMPS WILL RISE TO AT
LEAST 10 DEGREES C EVERYWHERE BY MONDAY. A SOLID HALF INCH OF RAIN
IS EXPECTED FOR THE WHOLE REGION...AS 850 HPA SOUTHERLY WINDS OF
50 KTS OR MORE TRANSPORT PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THIS
WILL KEPT TEMPS MILD FOR SUN NIGHT...WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE UPPER
30S TO MID 40S. RAINFALL SHOULD BE ENDING ON MONDAY MORNING FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH.  BEHIND THE RAINFALL...THERE MAY BE SOME CLEARING
FOR LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY...AS OUR REGION BECOMES FULLY IN THE
STORM/S WARM SECTOR. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO REACH THE MID
50S TO MID 60S...WHICH IS 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE THE THE DOMINATE FEATURE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE EASTERN UNITED NEXT WEEK WITH NUMEROUS SHORT WAVES. IN THE
MEANWHILE THERE WILL BE RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST WHICH WILL
DAMPEN AS IT MOVES EASTWARD AS A TROUGH HEADS FOR THE WEST COAST
LATE IN THE WEEK. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK
ESPECIALLY AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. THE UNCERTAINTIES WILL ORIGINATE
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WHERE THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IS MODEL
GUIDANCE.

WE START OUT WITH SOME LINGERING PRECIPITATION AS LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WHICH PASSES WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST CONTINUES TO MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD
BECOME FAVORABLE IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW FOR LAKE EFFECT TO OCCUR
INTO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

IN THE MEANTIME...GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A SHORT WAVE ROTATING
ABOUT BASE OF THE DEEP TROUGH OVER NEAR THE GULF OF MEXICO COAST
TUESDAY WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST BY
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO HEAD NORTHEASTWARD
REMAINING WELL OFFSHORE. HOWEVER THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD
IN THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE LOW. THE ECMWF TRACKS THE LOW CLOSER
TO THE COAST THAN THE GFS AND BRINGS ITS PRECIPITATION SHIELD ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE GFS KEEP ITS PRECIPITATION
TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. FOLLOWING THE LEAD OF THE WEATHER PREDICTION
CENTER HAVE USED A BLENDED APPROACH. HAVE RUN WITH CHANCE POPS
ACROSS MY FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE
NEAR NORMAL WHICH MEANS WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN DURING THE DAY FOR SOME
AREAS.

THERE IS MUCH GREATER UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AS WE HEAD INTO
THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK...THANKSGIVING DAY AND FRIDAY. THE TIMING
OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES IN BOTH THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS
WILL HAVE BIG IMPACT ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER AND WHERE AND WHEN A
LOW FORMS AND HOW STRONG IT MAY GET. INDICATIONS ARE A LOW SHOULD
FORM SOMEWHERE OFF THE SOUTHEAST TO MID ATLANTIC COAST BY THURSDAY
NIGHT. HAVE RUN WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS/CLIMATOLOGICALLY FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY SINCE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IS SO HIGH.

AS FOR THANKSGIVING DAY...AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE WEATHER
SHOULD BE FAIR AS WE ARE BETWEEN SYSTEMS.

OVERALL GUIDANCE INDICATES TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY COOL AS THE
WEEK PROGRESSES WITH BELOW NORMAL READINGS EXPECTED BY THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT...AND MOVE
OFFSHORE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT MIXED PCPN TO THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WITH MAINLY RAIN AND SLEET EXCEPT FOR
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET AT KGFL.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS DURING MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 06Z
SUNDAY. THE SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT...WITH THE MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN BETWEEN 10-15Z/SAT. THERE COULD BE SOME
SPOTTY SNOW SHOWERS AROUND FROM KALB NORTH AND EAST AFTER
20Z/SAT...AND THESE WERE ADDRESSED WITH A VCSH FOR KALB/KGFL/KPSF
FOR NOW. THIS EVENING THE PCPN WILL BEGIN AND WHILE CIGS WL REMAIN
VFR...MVFR VSBYS ARE EXPECTED AT KGFL/KALB AND KPSF. ONCE AGAIN
THE PCPN TYPE WL BE MAINLY -RAPL EXCEPT FOR -FZRAPL AT KGFL.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SW TO W AT 4-10 KTS EARLY THIS
EVENING..AND THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 5 KTS
OR LESS AFTER 05Z/SAT. EXPECT THE WINDS TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST AT 8-12 KTS LATE TOMORROW MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME GUSTS CLOSE TO 20 KTS AT KALB. WINDS WILL BE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 4 TO 10 KTS THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

THERE WILL BE A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER FAR
WESTERN AREAS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED. A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL IMPACT THE REGION...MAINLY FOR
AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...FOR LATE TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW
NIGHT. BASIN AVERAGE LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF PRECIP WILL BE A
QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON AREA
RIVERS AND STREAMS. ALONG WITH A MILDER AIR MASS...A MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAINFALL...WILL
IMPACT THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR SO. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL/WASULA
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...11/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS







000
FXUS61 KALY 220542
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1242 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS WILL END OVERNIGHT...WITH MAINLY COLD CONDITIONS FOR THE
REST OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.  A WARM FRONT WILL
BRING A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE REGION LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING MILDER AIR TO THE REGION
FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH SOME
RAINFALL AS WELL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1245 AM EST...VERY COLD CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS MOST THE
REGION WITH A SFC ANTICYCLONE RIDGING IN FROM THE SOUTH. A BAND OF
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES IS LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE TUG HILL
PLATEAU WITH THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW BACKING. A FEW OF THESE SNOW
SHOWERS ARE GETTING INTO THE WRN DACKS WITH LIGHT ACCUMS OF A
COATING TO A HALF AN INCH EXPECTED FOR NRN HERKIMER CTY. SOME OF
THE CLOUDS WILL SPILL INTO THE LAKE GEORGE REGION AND SW VT OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT THE SKIES SHOULD CLEAR THEREAFTER WITH
LOWS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FCST AREA IN THE TEENS WITH SOME SINGLE
DIGITS OVER THE NRN TIER /SRN DACKS...SRN GREENS AND LAKE GEORGE
REGION/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AFTER A COLD AND DRY START...CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE
WEST FOR DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. OUR REGION WILL BE INFLUENCED BY
FAST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AT 500 HPA...AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BE
MOVING TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES. 850 HPA TEMPS WILL
BE RAPIDLY WARMING THROUGH THE DAY THANKS TO WARM AIR
ADVECTION...AND 850 HPA TEMPS WILL RISE TO OR ABOVE FREEZING IN
MANY AREAS BY THE AFTN HOURS.

WITH THE ISENTROPIC LIFT/WARM AIR ADVECTION UNDERWAY...SOME LIGHT
PRECIP WILL BREAK OUT FROM WEST TO EAST LATE IN THE DAY AND
CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING PRECIP
WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA /NORTH OF I-90/...CLOSER
TO THE LARGE SCALE FORCING. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD
OF LIGHT SNOW FOR THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS TO START...MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL BE IN THE FORM OF A
WINTRY MIX CHANGING TO RAIN. IN MANY NORTHERN AREAS...THERE WILL
BE A PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIP /SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN/...WHICH WILL
EVENTUALLY CHANGE TO JUST A COLD PLAIN RAIN OVERNIGHT. FOR SOME
AREAS...INCLUDING THE GREATER CAPITAL REGION...TEMPS ON SAT MAY
RISE JUST ABOVE FREEZING...AND THEN HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE FOR
SAT NIGHT...AND PRECIP MAY WIND UP ONLY BEING IN THE FORM OF A
PLAIN COLD RAIN. ALL MEMBERS OF THE 15Z SREF SUGGEST THIS EVENT
WILL BE LIQUID FOR ALBANY...AND EVEN THE 12Z GEFS SHOW A LIMITED
WINDOW FOR MIXED PRECIP AT ALBANY AS WELL. THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING MIXED PRECIP WILL BE FOR THE ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE
SARATOGA REGION...SRN VT...TACONICS AND THE BERKSHIRES. EVEN IN
THE HIGH TERRAIN...LIGHT QPF WILL PREVENT ICE ACCRETION FROM BEING
MORE THAN JUST A COATING TO A TENTH OF AN INCH...WITH JUST A
COATING OF SNOW/SLEET POSSIBLE FOR HIGH TERRAIN AREAS AS WELL.

TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 30S FOR MANY AREAS ON
SATURDAY. ON SAT NIGHT...TEMPS WILL HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME OUT OF THE
S-SW AND BRING MILDER AIR INTO THE REGION.

ANY PRECIP LOOKS TO END BY SUNDAY MORNING...BUT IT WILL PROBABLY
REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...AS A LINGERING
BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER THE AREA. WE CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
RAIN SHOWER AROUND DUE TO THE SFC BOUNDARY NEARBY...BUT MOST AREAS
LOOK TO STAY DRY ON SUNDAY. THERE MAY BE SOME CLEARING LATE IN THE
DAY...MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN AREAS. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE SHORT
LIVED...AS YET ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE
SOUTH AND WEST. TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY MILDER ON SUNDAY...WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S TO LOW 50S.

THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE A MUCH STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CUTTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS STORM WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA LATE ON SUN
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. A WIDESPREAD STEADY RAINFALL WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA...AND PRECIP WILL BE IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAIN
EVERYWHERE DUE TO WARM TEMPS ALOFT. 850 HPA TEMPS WILL RISE TO AT
LEAST 10 DEGREES C EVERYWHERE BY MONDAY. A SOLID HALF INCH OF RAIN
IS EXPECTED FOR THE WHOLE REGION...AS 850 HPA SOUTHERLY WINDS OF
50 KTS OR MORE TRANSPORT PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THIS
WILL KEPT TEMPS MILD FOR SUN NIGHT...WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE UPPER
30S TO MID 40S. RAINFALL SHOULD BE ENDING ON MONDAY MORNING FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH.  BEHIND THE RAINFALL...THERE MAY BE SOME CLEARING
FOR LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY...AS OUR REGION BECOMES FULLY IN THE
STORM/S WARM SECTOR. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO REACH THE MID
50S TO MID 60S...WHICH IS 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE THE THE DOMINATE FEATURE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE EASTERN UNITED NEXT WEEK WITH NUMEROUS SHORT WAVES. IN THE
MEANWHILE THERE WILL BE RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST WHICH WILL
DAMPEN AS IT MOVES EASTWARD AS A TROUGH HEADS FOR THE WEST COAST
LATE IN THE WEEK. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK
ESPECIALLY AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. THE UNCERTAINTIES WILL ORIGINATE
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WHERE THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IS MODEL
GUIDANCE.

WE START OUT WITH SOME LINGERING PRECIPITATION AS LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WHICH PASSES WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST CONTINUES TO MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD
BECOME FAVORABLE IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW FOR LAKE EFFECT TO OCCUR
INTO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

IN THE MEANTIME...GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A SHORT WAVE ROTATING
ABOUT BASE OF THE DEEP TROUGH OVER NEAR THE GULF OF MEXICO COAST
TUESDAY WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST BY
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO HEAD NORTHEASTWARD
REMAINING WELL OFFSHORE. HOWEVER THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD
IN THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE LOW. THE ECMWF TRACKS THE LOW CLOSER
TO THE COAST THAN THE GFS AND BRINGS ITS PRECIPITATION SHIELD ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE GFS KEEP ITS PRECIPITATION
TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. FOLLOWING THE LEAD OF THE WEATHER PREDICTION
CENTER HAVE USED A BLENDED APPROACH. HAVE RUN WITH CHANCE POPS
ACROSS MY FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE
NEAR NORMAL WHICH MEANS WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN DURING THE DAY FOR SOME
AREAS.

THERE IS MUCH GREATER UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AS WE HEAD INTO
THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK...THANKSGIVING DAY AND FRIDAY. THE TIMING
OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES IN BOTH THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS
WILL HAVE BIG IMPACT ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER AND WHERE AND WHEN A
LOW FORMS AND HOW STRONG IT MAY GET. INDICATIONS ARE A LOW SHOULD
FORM SOMEWHERE OFF THE SOUTHEAST TO MID ATLANTIC COAST BY THURSDAY
NIGHT. HAVE RUN WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS/CLIMATOLOGICALLY FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY SINCE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IS SO HIGH.

AS FOR THANKSGIVING DAY...AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE WEATHER
SHOULD BE FAIR AS WE ARE BETWEEN SYSTEMS.

OVERALL GUIDANCE INDICATES TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY COOL AS THE
WEEK PROGRESSES WITH BELOW NORMAL READINGS EXPECTED BY THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT...AND MOVE
OFFSHORE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT MIXED PCPN TO THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WITH MAINLY RAIN AND SLEET EXCEPT FOR
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET AT KGFL.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS DURING MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 06Z
SUNDAY. THE SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT...WITH THE MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN BETWEEN 10-15Z/SAT. THERE COULD BE SOME
SPOTTY SNOW SHOWERS AROUND FROM KALB NORTH AND EAST AFTER
20Z/SAT...AND THESE WERE ADDRESSED WITH A VCSH FOR KALB/KGFL/KPSF
FOR NOW. THIS EVENING THE PCPN WILL BEGIN AND WHILE CIGS WL REMAIN
VFR...MVFR VSBYS ARE EXPECTED AT KGFL/KALB AND KPSF. ONCE AGAIN
THE PCPN TYPE WL BE MAINLY -RAPL EXCEPT FOR -FZRAPL AT KGFL.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SW TO W AT 4-10 KTS EARLY THIS
EVENING..AND THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 5 KTS
OR LESS AFTER 05Z/SAT. EXPECT THE WINDS TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST AT 8-12 KTS LATE TOMORROW MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME GUSTS CLOSE TO 20 KTS AT KALB. WINDS WILL BE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 4 TO 10 KTS THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

THERE WILL BE A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER FAR
WESTERN AREAS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED. A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL IMPACT THE REGION...MAINLY FOR
AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...FOR LATE TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW
NIGHT. BASIN AVERAGE LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF PRECIP WILL BE A
QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON AREA
RIVERS AND STREAMS. ALONG WITH A MILDER AIR MASS...A MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAINFALL...WILL
IMPACT THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR SO. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL/WASULA
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...11/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS







000
FXUS61 KALY 220542
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1242 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS WILL END OVERNIGHT...WITH MAINLY COLD CONDITIONS FOR THE
REST OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.  A WARM FRONT WILL
BRING A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE REGION LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING MILDER AIR TO THE REGION
FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH SOME
RAINFALL AS WELL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1245 AM EST...VERY COLD CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS MOST THE
REGION WITH A SFC ANTICYCLONE RIDGING IN FROM THE SOUTH. A BAND OF
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES IS LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE TUG HILL
PLATEAU WITH THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW BACKING. A FEW OF THESE SNOW
SHOWERS ARE GETTING INTO THE WRN DACKS WITH LIGHT ACCUMS OF A
COATING TO A HALF AN INCH EXPECTED FOR NRN HERKIMER CTY. SOME OF
THE CLOUDS WILL SPILL INTO THE LAKE GEORGE REGION AND SW VT OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT THE SKIES SHOULD CLEAR THEREAFTER WITH
LOWS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FCST AREA IN THE TEENS WITH SOME SINGLE
DIGITS OVER THE NRN TIER /SRN DACKS...SRN GREENS AND LAKE GEORGE
REGION/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AFTER A COLD AND DRY START...CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE
WEST FOR DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. OUR REGION WILL BE INFLUENCED BY
FAST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AT 500 HPA...AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BE
MOVING TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES. 850 HPA TEMPS WILL
BE RAPIDLY WARMING THROUGH THE DAY THANKS TO WARM AIR
ADVECTION...AND 850 HPA TEMPS WILL RISE TO OR ABOVE FREEZING IN
MANY AREAS BY THE AFTN HOURS.

WITH THE ISENTROPIC LIFT/WARM AIR ADVECTION UNDERWAY...SOME LIGHT
PRECIP WILL BREAK OUT FROM WEST TO EAST LATE IN THE DAY AND
CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING PRECIP
WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA /NORTH OF I-90/...CLOSER
TO THE LARGE SCALE FORCING. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD
OF LIGHT SNOW FOR THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS TO START...MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL BE IN THE FORM OF A
WINTRY MIX CHANGING TO RAIN. IN MANY NORTHERN AREAS...THERE WILL
BE A PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIP /SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN/...WHICH WILL
EVENTUALLY CHANGE TO JUST A COLD PLAIN RAIN OVERNIGHT. FOR SOME
AREAS...INCLUDING THE GREATER CAPITAL REGION...TEMPS ON SAT MAY
RISE JUST ABOVE FREEZING...AND THEN HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE FOR
SAT NIGHT...AND PRECIP MAY WIND UP ONLY BEING IN THE FORM OF A
PLAIN COLD RAIN. ALL MEMBERS OF THE 15Z SREF SUGGEST THIS EVENT
WILL BE LIQUID FOR ALBANY...AND EVEN THE 12Z GEFS SHOW A LIMITED
WINDOW FOR MIXED PRECIP AT ALBANY AS WELL. THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING MIXED PRECIP WILL BE FOR THE ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE
SARATOGA REGION...SRN VT...TACONICS AND THE BERKSHIRES. EVEN IN
THE HIGH TERRAIN...LIGHT QPF WILL PREVENT ICE ACCRETION FROM BEING
MORE THAN JUST A COATING TO A TENTH OF AN INCH...WITH JUST A
COATING OF SNOW/SLEET POSSIBLE FOR HIGH TERRAIN AREAS AS WELL.

TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 30S FOR MANY AREAS ON
SATURDAY. ON SAT NIGHT...TEMPS WILL HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME OUT OF THE
S-SW AND BRING MILDER AIR INTO THE REGION.

ANY PRECIP LOOKS TO END BY SUNDAY MORNING...BUT IT WILL PROBABLY
REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...AS A LINGERING
BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER THE AREA. WE CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
RAIN SHOWER AROUND DUE TO THE SFC BOUNDARY NEARBY...BUT MOST AREAS
LOOK TO STAY DRY ON SUNDAY. THERE MAY BE SOME CLEARING LATE IN THE
DAY...MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN AREAS. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE SHORT
LIVED...AS YET ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE
SOUTH AND WEST. TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY MILDER ON SUNDAY...WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S TO LOW 50S.

THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE A MUCH STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CUTTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS STORM WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA LATE ON SUN
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. A WIDESPREAD STEADY RAINFALL WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA...AND PRECIP WILL BE IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAIN
EVERYWHERE DUE TO WARM TEMPS ALOFT. 850 HPA TEMPS WILL RISE TO AT
LEAST 10 DEGREES C EVERYWHERE BY MONDAY. A SOLID HALF INCH OF RAIN
IS EXPECTED FOR THE WHOLE REGION...AS 850 HPA SOUTHERLY WINDS OF
50 KTS OR MORE TRANSPORT PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THIS
WILL KEPT TEMPS MILD FOR SUN NIGHT...WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE UPPER
30S TO MID 40S. RAINFALL SHOULD BE ENDING ON MONDAY MORNING FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH.  BEHIND THE RAINFALL...THERE MAY BE SOME CLEARING
FOR LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY...AS OUR REGION BECOMES FULLY IN THE
STORM/S WARM SECTOR. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO REACH THE MID
50S TO MID 60S...WHICH IS 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE THE THE DOMINATE FEATURE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE EASTERN UNITED NEXT WEEK WITH NUMEROUS SHORT WAVES. IN THE
MEANWHILE THERE WILL BE RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST WHICH WILL
DAMPEN AS IT MOVES EASTWARD AS A TROUGH HEADS FOR THE WEST COAST
LATE IN THE WEEK. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK
ESPECIALLY AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. THE UNCERTAINTIES WILL ORIGINATE
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WHERE THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IS MODEL
GUIDANCE.

WE START OUT WITH SOME LINGERING PRECIPITATION AS LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WHICH PASSES WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST CONTINUES TO MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD
BECOME FAVORABLE IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW FOR LAKE EFFECT TO OCCUR
INTO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

IN THE MEANTIME...GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A SHORT WAVE ROTATING
ABOUT BASE OF THE DEEP TROUGH OVER NEAR THE GULF OF MEXICO COAST
TUESDAY WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST BY
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO HEAD NORTHEASTWARD
REMAINING WELL OFFSHORE. HOWEVER THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD
IN THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE LOW. THE ECMWF TRACKS THE LOW CLOSER
TO THE COAST THAN THE GFS AND BRINGS ITS PRECIPITATION SHIELD ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE GFS KEEP ITS PRECIPITATION
TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. FOLLOWING THE LEAD OF THE WEATHER PREDICTION
CENTER HAVE USED A BLENDED APPROACH. HAVE RUN WITH CHANCE POPS
ACROSS MY FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE
NEAR NORMAL WHICH MEANS WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN DURING THE DAY FOR SOME
AREAS.

THERE IS MUCH GREATER UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AS WE HEAD INTO
THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK...THANKSGIVING DAY AND FRIDAY. THE TIMING
OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES IN BOTH THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS
WILL HAVE BIG IMPACT ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER AND WHERE AND WHEN A
LOW FORMS AND HOW STRONG IT MAY GET. INDICATIONS ARE A LOW SHOULD
FORM SOMEWHERE OFF THE SOUTHEAST TO MID ATLANTIC COAST BY THURSDAY
NIGHT. HAVE RUN WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS/CLIMATOLOGICALLY FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY SINCE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IS SO HIGH.

AS FOR THANKSGIVING DAY...AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE WEATHER
SHOULD BE FAIR AS WE ARE BETWEEN SYSTEMS.

OVERALL GUIDANCE INDICATES TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY COOL AS THE
WEEK PROGRESSES WITH BELOW NORMAL READINGS EXPECTED BY THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT...AND MOVE
OFFSHORE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT MIXED PCPN TO THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WITH MAINLY RAIN AND SLEET EXCEPT FOR
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET AT KGFL.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS DURING MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 06Z
SUNDAY. THE SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT...WITH THE MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN BETWEEN 10-15Z/SAT. THERE COULD BE SOME
SPOTTY SNOW SHOWERS AROUND FROM KALB NORTH AND EAST AFTER
20Z/SAT...AND THESE WERE ADDRESSED WITH A VCSH FOR KALB/KGFL/KPSF
FOR NOW. THIS EVENING THE PCPN WILL BEGIN AND WHILE CIGS WL REMAIN
VFR...MVFR VSBYS ARE EXPECTED AT KGFL/KALB AND KPSF. ONCE AGAIN
THE PCPN TYPE WL BE MAINLY -RAPL EXCEPT FOR -FZRAPL AT KGFL.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SW TO W AT 4-10 KTS EARLY THIS
EVENING..AND THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 5 KTS
OR LESS AFTER 05Z/SAT. EXPECT THE WINDS TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST AT 8-12 KTS LATE TOMORROW MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME GUSTS CLOSE TO 20 KTS AT KALB. WINDS WILL BE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 4 TO 10 KTS THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

THERE WILL BE A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER FAR
WESTERN AREAS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED. A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL IMPACT THE REGION...MAINLY FOR
AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...FOR LATE TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW
NIGHT. BASIN AVERAGE LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF PRECIP WILL BE A
QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON AREA
RIVERS AND STREAMS. ALONG WITH A MILDER AIR MASS...A MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAINFALL...WILL
IMPACT THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR SO. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL/WASULA
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...11/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS







000
FXUS61 KALY 220542
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1242 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS WILL END OVERNIGHT...WITH MAINLY COLD CONDITIONS FOR THE
REST OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.  A WARM FRONT WILL
BRING A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE REGION LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING MILDER AIR TO THE REGION
FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH SOME
RAINFALL AS WELL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1245 AM EST...VERY COLD CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS MOST THE
REGION WITH A SFC ANTICYCLONE RIDGING IN FROM THE SOUTH. A BAND OF
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES IS LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE TUG HILL
PLATEAU WITH THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW BACKING. A FEW OF THESE SNOW
SHOWERS ARE GETTING INTO THE WRN DACKS WITH LIGHT ACCUMS OF A
COATING TO A HALF AN INCH EXPECTED FOR NRN HERKIMER CTY. SOME OF
THE CLOUDS WILL SPILL INTO THE LAKE GEORGE REGION AND SW VT OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT THE SKIES SHOULD CLEAR THEREAFTER WITH
LOWS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FCST AREA IN THE TEENS WITH SOME SINGLE
DIGITS OVER THE NRN TIER /SRN DACKS...SRN GREENS AND LAKE GEORGE
REGION/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AFTER A COLD AND DRY START...CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE
WEST FOR DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. OUR REGION WILL BE INFLUENCED BY
FAST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AT 500 HPA...AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BE
MOVING TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES. 850 HPA TEMPS WILL
BE RAPIDLY WARMING THROUGH THE DAY THANKS TO WARM AIR
ADVECTION...AND 850 HPA TEMPS WILL RISE TO OR ABOVE FREEZING IN
MANY AREAS BY THE AFTN HOURS.

WITH THE ISENTROPIC LIFT/WARM AIR ADVECTION UNDERWAY...SOME LIGHT
PRECIP WILL BREAK OUT FROM WEST TO EAST LATE IN THE DAY AND
CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING PRECIP
WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA /NORTH OF I-90/...CLOSER
TO THE LARGE SCALE FORCING. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD
OF LIGHT SNOW FOR THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS TO START...MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL BE IN THE FORM OF A
WINTRY MIX CHANGING TO RAIN. IN MANY NORTHERN AREAS...THERE WILL
BE A PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIP /SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN/...WHICH WILL
EVENTUALLY CHANGE TO JUST A COLD PLAIN RAIN OVERNIGHT. FOR SOME
AREAS...INCLUDING THE GREATER CAPITAL REGION...TEMPS ON SAT MAY
RISE JUST ABOVE FREEZING...AND THEN HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE FOR
SAT NIGHT...AND PRECIP MAY WIND UP ONLY BEING IN THE FORM OF A
PLAIN COLD RAIN. ALL MEMBERS OF THE 15Z SREF SUGGEST THIS EVENT
WILL BE LIQUID FOR ALBANY...AND EVEN THE 12Z GEFS SHOW A LIMITED
WINDOW FOR MIXED PRECIP AT ALBANY AS WELL. THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING MIXED PRECIP WILL BE FOR THE ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE
SARATOGA REGION...SRN VT...TACONICS AND THE BERKSHIRES. EVEN IN
THE HIGH TERRAIN...LIGHT QPF WILL PREVENT ICE ACCRETION FROM BEING
MORE THAN JUST A COATING TO A TENTH OF AN INCH...WITH JUST A
COATING OF SNOW/SLEET POSSIBLE FOR HIGH TERRAIN AREAS AS WELL.

TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 30S FOR MANY AREAS ON
SATURDAY. ON SAT NIGHT...TEMPS WILL HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME OUT OF THE
S-SW AND BRING MILDER AIR INTO THE REGION.

ANY PRECIP LOOKS TO END BY SUNDAY MORNING...BUT IT WILL PROBABLY
REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...AS A LINGERING
BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER THE AREA. WE CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
RAIN SHOWER AROUND DUE TO THE SFC BOUNDARY NEARBY...BUT MOST AREAS
LOOK TO STAY DRY ON SUNDAY. THERE MAY BE SOME CLEARING LATE IN THE
DAY...MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN AREAS. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE SHORT
LIVED...AS YET ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE
SOUTH AND WEST. TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY MILDER ON SUNDAY...WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S TO LOW 50S.

THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE A MUCH STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CUTTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS STORM WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA LATE ON SUN
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. A WIDESPREAD STEADY RAINFALL WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA...AND PRECIP WILL BE IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAIN
EVERYWHERE DUE TO WARM TEMPS ALOFT. 850 HPA TEMPS WILL RISE TO AT
LEAST 10 DEGREES C EVERYWHERE BY MONDAY. A SOLID HALF INCH OF RAIN
IS EXPECTED FOR THE WHOLE REGION...AS 850 HPA SOUTHERLY WINDS OF
50 KTS OR MORE TRANSPORT PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THIS
WILL KEPT TEMPS MILD FOR SUN NIGHT...WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE UPPER
30S TO MID 40S. RAINFALL SHOULD BE ENDING ON MONDAY MORNING FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH.  BEHIND THE RAINFALL...THERE MAY BE SOME CLEARING
FOR LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY...AS OUR REGION BECOMES FULLY IN THE
STORM/S WARM SECTOR. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO REACH THE MID
50S TO MID 60S...WHICH IS 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE THE THE DOMINATE FEATURE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE EASTERN UNITED NEXT WEEK WITH NUMEROUS SHORT WAVES. IN THE
MEANWHILE THERE WILL BE RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST WHICH WILL
DAMPEN AS IT MOVES EASTWARD AS A TROUGH HEADS FOR THE WEST COAST
LATE IN THE WEEK. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK
ESPECIALLY AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. THE UNCERTAINTIES WILL ORIGINATE
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WHERE THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IS MODEL
GUIDANCE.

WE START OUT WITH SOME LINGERING PRECIPITATION AS LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WHICH PASSES WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST CONTINUES TO MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD
BECOME FAVORABLE IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW FOR LAKE EFFECT TO OCCUR
INTO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

IN THE MEANTIME...GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A SHORT WAVE ROTATING
ABOUT BASE OF THE DEEP TROUGH OVER NEAR THE GULF OF MEXICO COAST
TUESDAY WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST BY
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO HEAD NORTHEASTWARD
REMAINING WELL OFFSHORE. HOWEVER THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD
IN THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE LOW. THE ECMWF TRACKS THE LOW CLOSER
TO THE COAST THAN THE GFS AND BRINGS ITS PRECIPITATION SHIELD ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE GFS KEEP ITS PRECIPITATION
TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. FOLLOWING THE LEAD OF THE WEATHER PREDICTION
CENTER HAVE USED A BLENDED APPROACH. HAVE RUN WITH CHANCE POPS
ACROSS MY FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE
NEAR NORMAL WHICH MEANS WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN DURING THE DAY FOR SOME
AREAS.

THERE IS MUCH GREATER UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AS WE HEAD INTO
THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK...THANKSGIVING DAY AND FRIDAY. THE TIMING
OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES IN BOTH THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS
WILL HAVE BIG IMPACT ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER AND WHERE AND WHEN A
LOW FORMS AND HOW STRONG IT MAY GET. INDICATIONS ARE A LOW SHOULD
FORM SOMEWHERE OFF THE SOUTHEAST TO MID ATLANTIC COAST BY THURSDAY
NIGHT. HAVE RUN WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS/CLIMATOLOGICALLY FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY SINCE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IS SO HIGH.

AS FOR THANKSGIVING DAY...AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE WEATHER
SHOULD BE FAIR AS WE ARE BETWEEN SYSTEMS.

OVERALL GUIDANCE INDICATES TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY COOL AS THE
WEEK PROGRESSES WITH BELOW NORMAL READINGS EXPECTED BY THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT...AND MOVE
OFFSHORE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT MIXED PCPN TO THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WITH MAINLY RAIN AND SLEET EXCEPT FOR
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET AT KGFL.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS DURING MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 06Z
SUNDAY. THE SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT...WITH THE MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN BETWEEN 10-15Z/SAT. THERE COULD BE SOME
SPOTTY SNOW SHOWERS AROUND FROM KALB NORTH AND EAST AFTER
20Z/SAT...AND THESE WERE ADDRESSED WITH A VCSH FOR KALB/KGFL/KPSF
FOR NOW. THIS EVENING THE PCPN WILL BEGIN AND WHILE CIGS WL REMAIN
VFR...MVFR VSBYS ARE EXPECTED AT KGFL/KALB AND KPSF. ONCE AGAIN
THE PCPN TYPE WL BE MAINLY -RAPL EXCEPT FOR -FZRAPL AT KGFL.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SW TO W AT 4-10 KTS EARLY THIS
EVENING..AND THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 5 KTS
OR LESS AFTER 05Z/SAT. EXPECT THE WINDS TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST AT 8-12 KTS LATE TOMORROW MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME GUSTS CLOSE TO 20 KTS AT KALB. WINDS WILL BE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 4 TO 10 KTS THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

THERE WILL BE A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER FAR
WESTERN AREAS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED. A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL IMPACT THE REGION...MAINLY FOR
AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...FOR LATE TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW
NIGHT. BASIN AVERAGE LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF PRECIP WILL BE A
QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON AREA
RIVERS AND STREAMS. ALONG WITH A MILDER AIR MASS...A MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAINFALL...WILL
IMPACT THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR SO. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL/WASULA
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...11/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS







000
FXUS61 KOKX 220530
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1230 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TODAY. A WARM FRONT THEN MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTH SUNDAY AND LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN STALLS
OFFSHORE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE MAY RIDE
ALONG THE FRONT AND PASS TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY...WITH ANOTHER LOW
POSSIBLY TRACKING EAST FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN OFF FASTER THAN FORECAST...ESPECIALLY IN
NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS. HAVE TWEAKED TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD
THERE BASED ON LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE...MADE
ONLY MINOR CHANGES BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS AND
GUIDANCE WITH THIS UPDATE.

A LARGE 1035 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS CENTERED OVER EASTERN
VA AND NC AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
OVERNIGHT.

SFC WINDS HAVE DECOUPLED AT ALL BUT AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST...BUT
EXPECT TO DECOUPLE EVEN THERE WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
GIVEN LIGHT WINDS AND A CLEAR SKY...EXPECT STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT EXPECT ANOTHER COLD NIGHT...WITH
LOWS PLUMMETING INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20 FOR MOST
COASTAL AREAS...AND AS LOW AS THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS
ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THE EXCEPTION IS IN THE IMMEDIATE NYC METRO
WHERE THE URBAN HEAT ISLAND EFFECT WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 20S. THESE LOWS OVERALL ARE 15-25 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
MOSTLY SUNNY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY SATURDAY. SW FLOW WILL USHER A
MILDER AIR MASS INTO THE REGION WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...AND IN THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS. THESE TEMPS...HOWEVER...ARE STILL 10-15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY AND AT NIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. SOME LIGHT...OVERRUNNING
PRECIP WILL DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. BEST FOCUS WILL
BE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ZONES WHERE POPS WILL BE LOW CHANCE...AND
WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE MOST ELSEWHERE. WITH SFC TEMPS BELOW
FREEZING ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF NE NJ...THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY...SOUTHERN CT AND THE PINE BARRENS OF EASTERN LONG
ISLAND...P-TYPE COULD BE FREEZING RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES AND
FREEZING RAIN/RAIN FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. NYC/LONG ISLAND SHOULD
STAY AS PLAIN RAIN...WITH SOME FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE FOR THE PINE
BARRENS OF LONG ISLAND.

LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S INLAND
AND IN THE MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS NYC/LONG ISLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EARLY SUNDAY...WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES NORTH OF THE
REGION...WITH UPPER RIDGING QUICKLY BUILDING DURING THE DAY. THIS
IS IN RESPONSE TO DIGGING MID WEST TROUGH.

THE RIDGE GIVES WAY TO SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE THAT TRACKS
NORTHEAST...PASSING JUST TO THE WEST OF THE AREA EARLY MONDAY.
MEANWHILE...MAIN TROUGH AMPLIFIES AND CLOSES OFF ACROSS THE UPPER
MID WEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS CLOSED LOW WEAKENS AND LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEK AS MAIN TROUGH SLOWLY MAKES EASTWARD
PROGRESS. TROUGH AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

AT THE SURFACE...A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH SUNDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE WARM FRONT
MOVES THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AS LOCAL AREA BECOMES WARM SECTORED. THE
DEEP LOW PRESSURE PASSES ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH BY TUESDAY. THIS FRONT SETTLES EAST OF THE AREA MID WEEK AS
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES ALONG IT...LIKELY PASSING JUST
SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK. BY THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE AND FRONT TO
THE WEST APPROACHES. WITH UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVERHEAD LATE
THURSDAY/FRIDAY...SFC LOW PRESSURE MAY INTENSIFY OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY.

AS FOR WEATHER...ANY LINGERING LIGHT RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN ENDS
SUNDAY. TEMPS WARM INTO THE LOWER 50S. WITH SOUTH
WINDS...TEMPERATURES REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD SUNDAY NIGHT FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR...THEN WARM INTO THE 60S MONDAY AS AREA BECOMES WARM
SECTORED.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO GRADUALLY FALL
BACK CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS BY MID TO LATE WEEK.

POPS AND WEATHER WILL DEPEND ON EVENTUAL PLACEMENT OF LOW PRESSURE
MID WEEK AND AGAIN LATE WEEK. KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE FOR
NOW...WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITIES EAST OF NYC. WEATHER TYPE WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH TODAY.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH
THIS MORNING...WITH A MID LEVEL DECK MOVING IN LATE AFT/EVE.
BRIEF MVFR CIG POSSIBLE 00Z TO 03Z SUN AT KSWF.

WINDS SHIFT TO THE SW AT LESS THAN 5 KT THRU EARLY MORNING...THEN
INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT WITH G20KT AFTER 14-15Z. GUSTS LOST BY 00Z
SUN.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUN THROUGH WED...
.SUN...VFR.
.SUN NIGHT-MON...BECOMING MVFR/IFR. POSSIBLY SUB-IFR. RA AND FG
WITH LLWS POSSIBLE.
.MON NIGHT-TUE...VFR.
.WED...MAINLY VFR...ALTHOUGH POSSIBLE RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX MAY
IMPACT THE AREA...ESPECIALLY EAST OF NYC METRO.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRES PASSES TO OUR SOUTH TODAY WITH THE GRADIENT TIGHTENING
THIS AFTERNOON. SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR AT LEAST THE OCEAN
WATERS LATE DAY AND TONIGHT. WILL ISSUE SCA AS NECESSARY WITH THE
NEXT UPDATE.

WESTERLY WINDS SHIFT TOWARD THE SW SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES. SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AHEAD
OF AND THEN BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH A SLIGHT SHIFT FROM S/SE TO S/SW.

THEN WINDS SHIFT AGAIN BACK TO THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THESE WINDS TURN TOWARD THE NW TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE
WATERS MAY TURN THE WINDS TOWARD THE N/NW LATE WEDNESDAY.

WINDS REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. IN FACT GALES ARE
POSSIBLE MONDAY BEHIND THE WARM FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT.

WINDS DO DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BRIEFLY AS THE HIGH BUILDS.

SEAS SHOULD REMAIN ROUGH THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY CONDITIONS TODAY...AND ONLY LIGHT PRECIP POSSIBLE TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KOKX 220530
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1230 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TODAY. A WARM FRONT THEN MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTH SUNDAY AND LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN STALLS
OFFSHORE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE MAY RIDE
ALONG THE FRONT AND PASS TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY...WITH ANOTHER LOW
POSSIBLY TRACKING EAST FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN OFF FASTER THAN FORECAST...ESPECIALLY IN
NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS. HAVE TWEAKED TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD
THERE BASED ON LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE...MADE
ONLY MINOR CHANGES BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS AND
GUIDANCE WITH THIS UPDATE.

A LARGE 1035 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS CENTERED OVER EASTERN
VA AND NC AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
OVERNIGHT.

SFC WINDS HAVE DECOUPLED AT ALL BUT AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST...BUT
EXPECT TO DECOUPLE EVEN THERE WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
GIVEN LIGHT WINDS AND A CLEAR SKY...EXPECT STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT EXPECT ANOTHER COLD NIGHT...WITH
LOWS PLUMMETING INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20 FOR MOST
COASTAL AREAS...AND AS LOW AS THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS
ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THE EXCEPTION IS IN THE IMMEDIATE NYC METRO
WHERE THE URBAN HEAT ISLAND EFFECT WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 20S. THESE LOWS OVERALL ARE 15-25 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
MOSTLY SUNNY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY SATURDAY. SW FLOW WILL USHER A
MILDER AIR MASS INTO THE REGION WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...AND IN THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS. THESE TEMPS...HOWEVER...ARE STILL 10-15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY AND AT NIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. SOME LIGHT...OVERRUNNING
PRECIP WILL DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. BEST FOCUS WILL
BE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ZONES WHERE POPS WILL BE LOW CHANCE...AND
WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE MOST ELSEWHERE. WITH SFC TEMPS BELOW
FREEZING ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF NE NJ...THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY...SOUTHERN CT AND THE PINE BARRENS OF EASTERN LONG
ISLAND...P-TYPE COULD BE FREEZING RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES AND
FREEZING RAIN/RAIN FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. NYC/LONG ISLAND SHOULD
STAY AS PLAIN RAIN...WITH SOME FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE FOR THE PINE
BARRENS OF LONG ISLAND.

LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S INLAND
AND IN THE MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS NYC/LONG ISLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EARLY SUNDAY...WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES NORTH OF THE
REGION...WITH UPPER RIDGING QUICKLY BUILDING DURING THE DAY. THIS
IS IN RESPONSE TO DIGGING MID WEST TROUGH.

THE RIDGE GIVES WAY TO SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE THAT TRACKS
NORTHEAST...PASSING JUST TO THE WEST OF THE AREA EARLY MONDAY.
MEANWHILE...MAIN TROUGH AMPLIFIES AND CLOSES OFF ACROSS THE UPPER
MID WEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS CLOSED LOW WEAKENS AND LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEK AS MAIN TROUGH SLOWLY MAKES EASTWARD
PROGRESS. TROUGH AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

AT THE SURFACE...A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH SUNDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE WARM FRONT
MOVES THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AS LOCAL AREA BECOMES WARM SECTORED. THE
DEEP LOW PRESSURE PASSES ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH BY TUESDAY. THIS FRONT SETTLES EAST OF THE AREA MID WEEK AS
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES ALONG IT...LIKELY PASSING JUST
SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK. BY THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE AND FRONT TO
THE WEST APPROACHES. WITH UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVERHEAD LATE
THURSDAY/FRIDAY...SFC LOW PRESSURE MAY INTENSIFY OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY.

AS FOR WEATHER...ANY LINGERING LIGHT RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN ENDS
SUNDAY. TEMPS WARM INTO THE LOWER 50S. WITH SOUTH
WINDS...TEMPERATURES REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD SUNDAY NIGHT FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR...THEN WARM INTO THE 60S MONDAY AS AREA BECOMES WARM
SECTORED.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO GRADUALLY FALL
BACK CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS BY MID TO LATE WEEK.

POPS AND WEATHER WILL DEPEND ON EVENTUAL PLACEMENT OF LOW PRESSURE
MID WEEK AND AGAIN LATE WEEK. KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE FOR
NOW...WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITIES EAST OF NYC. WEATHER TYPE WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH TODAY.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH
THIS MORNING...WITH A MID LEVEL DECK MOVING IN LATE AFT/EVE.
BRIEF MVFR CIG POSSIBLE 00Z TO 03Z SUN AT KSWF.

WINDS SHIFT TO THE SW AT LESS THAN 5 KT THRU EARLY MORNING...THEN
INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT WITH G20KT AFTER 14-15Z. GUSTS LOST BY 00Z
SUN.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUN THROUGH WED...
.SUN...VFR.
.SUN NIGHT-MON...BECOMING MVFR/IFR. POSSIBLY SUB-IFR. RA AND FG
WITH LLWS POSSIBLE.
.MON NIGHT-TUE...VFR.
.WED...MAINLY VFR...ALTHOUGH POSSIBLE RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX MAY
IMPACT THE AREA...ESPECIALLY EAST OF NYC METRO.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRES PASSES TO OUR SOUTH TODAY WITH THE GRADIENT TIGHTENING
THIS AFTERNOON. SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR AT LEAST THE OCEAN
WATERS LATE DAY AND TONIGHT. WILL ISSUE SCA AS NECESSARY WITH THE
NEXT UPDATE.

WESTERLY WINDS SHIFT TOWARD THE SW SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES. SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AHEAD
OF AND THEN BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH A SLIGHT SHIFT FROM S/SE TO S/SW.

THEN WINDS SHIFT AGAIN BACK TO THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THESE WINDS TURN TOWARD THE NW TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE
WATERS MAY TURN THE WINDS TOWARD THE N/NW LATE WEDNESDAY.

WINDS REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. IN FACT GALES ARE
POSSIBLE MONDAY BEHIND THE WARM FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT.

WINDS DO DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BRIEFLY AS THE HIGH BUILDS.

SEAS SHOULD REMAIN ROUGH THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY CONDITIONS TODAY...AND ONLY LIGHT PRECIP POSSIBLE TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KOKX 220530
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1230 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TODAY. A WARM FRONT THEN MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTH SUNDAY AND LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN STALLS
OFFSHORE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE MAY RIDE
ALONG THE FRONT AND PASS TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY...WITH ANOTHER LOW
POSSIBLY TRACKING EAST FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN OFF FASTER THAN FORECAST...ESPECIALLY IN
NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS. HAVE TWEAKED TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD
THERE BASED ON LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE...MADE
ONLY MINOR CHANGES BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS AND
GUIDANCE WITH THIS UPDATE.

A LARGE 1035 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS CENTERED OVER EASTERN
VA AND NC AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
OVERNIGHT.

SFC WINDS HAVE DECOUPLED AT ALL BUT AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST...BUT
EXPECT TO DECOUPLE EVEN THERE WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
GIVEN LIGHT WINDS AND A CLEAR SKY...EXPECT STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT EXPECT ANOTHER COLD NIGHT...WITH
LOWS PLUMMETING INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20 FOR MOST
COASTAL AREAS...AND AS LOW AS THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS
ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THE EXCEPTION IS IN THE IMMEDIATE NYC METRO
WHERE THE URBAN HEAT ISLAND EFFECT WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 20S. THESE LOWS OVERALL ARE 15-25 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
MOSTLY SUNNY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY SATURDAY. SW FLOW WILL USHER A
MILDER AIR MASS INTO THE REGION WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...AND IN THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS. THESE TEMPS...HOWEVER...ARE STILL 10-15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY AND AT NIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. SOME LIGHT...OVERRUNNING
PRECIP WILL DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. BEST FOCUS WILL
BE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ZONES WHERE POPS WILL BE LOW CHANCE...AND
WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE MOST ELSEWHERE. WITH SFC TEMPS BELOW
FREEZING ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF NE NJ...THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY...SOUTHERN CT AND THE PINE BARRENS OF EASTERN LONG
ISLAND...P-TYPE COULD BE FREEZING RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES AND
FREEZING RAIN/RAIN FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. NYC/LONG ISLAND SHOULD
STAY AS PLAIN RAIN...WITH SOME FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE FOR THE PINE
BARRENS OF LONG ISLAND.

LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S INLAND
AND IN THE MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS NYC/LONG ISLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EARLY SUNDAY...WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES NORTH OF THE
REGION...WITH UPPER RIDGING QUICKLY BUILDING DURING THE DAY. THIS
IS IN RESPONSE TO DIGGING MID WEST TROUGH.

THE RIDGE GIVES WAY TO SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE THAT TRACKS
NORTHEAST...PASSING JUST TO THE WEST OF THE AREA EARLY MONDAY.
MEANWHILE...MAIN TROUGH AMPLIFIES AND CLOSES OFF ACROSS THE UPPER
MID WEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS CLOSED LOW WEAKENS AND LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEK AS MAIN TROUGH SLOWLY MAKES EASTWARD
PROGRESS. TROUGH AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

AT THE SURFACE...A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH SUNDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE WARM FRONT
MOVES THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AS LOCAL AREA BECOMES WARM SECTORED. THE
DEEP LOW PRESSURE PASSES ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH BY TUESDAY. THIS FRONT SETTLES EAST OF THE AREA MID WEEK AS
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES ALONG IT...LIKELY PASSING JUST
SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK. BY THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE AND FRONT TO
THE WEST APPROACHES. WITH UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVERHEAD LATE
THURSDAY/FRIDAY...SFC LOW PRESSURE MAY INTENSIFY OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY.

AS FOR WEATHER...ANY LINGERING LIGHT RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN ENDS
SUNDAY. TEMPS WARM INTO THE LOWER 50S. WITH SOUTH
WINDS...TEMPERATURES REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD SUNDAY NIGHT FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR...THEN WARM INTO THE 60S MONDAY AS AREA BECOMES WARM
SECTORED.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO GRADUALLY FALL
BACK CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS BY MID TO LATE WEEK.

POPS AND WEATHER WILL DEPEND ON EVENTUAL PLACEMENT OF LOW PRESSURE
MID WEEK AND AGAIN LATE WEEK. KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE FOR
NOW...WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITIES EAST OF NYC. WEATHER TYPE WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH TODAY.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH
THIS MORNING...WITH A MID LEVEL DECK MOVING IN LATE AFT/EVE.
BRIEF MVFR CIG POSSIBLE 00Z TO 03Z SUN AT KSWF.

WINDS SHIFT TO THE SW AT LESS THAN 5 KT THRU EARLY MORNING...THEN
INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT WITH G20KT AFTER 14-15Z. GUSTS LOST BY 00Z
SUN.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUN THROUGH WED...
.SUN...VFR.
.SUN NIGHT-MON...BECOMING MVFR/IFR. POSSIBLY SUB-IFR. RA AND FG
WITH LLWS POSSIBLE.
.MON NIGHT-TUE...VFR.
.WED...MAINLY VFR...ALTHOUGH POSSIBLE RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX MAY
IMPACT THE AREA...ESPECIALLY EAST OF NYC METRO.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRES PASSES TO OUR SOUTH TODAY WITH THE GRADIENT TIGHTENING
THIS AFTERNOON. SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR AT LEAST THE OCEAN
WATERS LATE DAY AND TONIGHT. WILL ISSUE SCA AS NECESSARY WITH THE
NEXT UPDATE.

WESTERLY WINDS SHIFT TOWARD THE SW SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES. SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AHEAD
OF AND THEN BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH A SLIGHT SHIFT FROM S/SE TO S/SW.

THEN WINDS SHIFT AGAIN BACK TO THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THESE WINDS TURN TOWARD THE NW TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE
WATERS MAY TURN THE WINDS TOWARD THE N/NW LATE WEDNESDAY.

WINDS REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. IN FACT GALES ARE
POSSIBLE MONDAY BEHIND THE WARM FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT.

WINDS DO DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BRIEFLY AS THE HIGH BUILDS.

SEAS SHOULD REMAIN ROUGH THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY CONDITIONS TODAY...AND ONLY LIGHT PRECIP POSSIBLE TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KOKX 220530
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1230 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TODAY. A WARM FRONT THEN MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTH SUNDAY AND LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN STALLS
OFFSHORE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE MAY RIDE
ALONG THE FRONT AND PASS TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY...WITH ANOTHER LOW
POSSIBLY TRACKING EAST FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN OFF FASTER THAN FORECAST...ESPECIALLY IN
NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS. HAVE TWEAKED TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD
THERE BASED ON LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE...MADE
ONLY MINOR CHANGES BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS AND
GUIDANCE WITH THIS UPDATE.

A LARGE 1035 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS CENTERED OVER EASTERN
VA AND NC AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
OVERNIGHT.

SFC WINDS HAVE DECOUPLED AT ALL BUT AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST...BUT
EXPECT TO DECOUPLE EVEN THERE WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
GIVEN LIGHT WINDS AND A CLEAR SKY...EXPECT STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT EXPECT ANOTHER COLD NIGHT...WITH
LOWS PLUMMETING INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20 FOR MOST
COASTAL AREAS...AND AS LOW AS THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS
ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THE EXCEPTION IS IN THE IMMEDIATE NYC METRO
WHERE THE URBAN HEAT ISLAND EFFECT WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 20S. THESE LOWS OVERALL ARE 15-25 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
MOSTLY SUNNY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY SATURDAY. SW FLOW WILL USHER A
MILDER AIR MASS INTO THE REGION WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...AND IN THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS. THESE TEMPS...HOWEVER...ARE STILL 10-15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY AND AT NIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. SOME LIGHT...OVERRUNNING
PRECIP WILL DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. BEST FOCUS WILL
BE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ZONES WHERE POPS WILL BE LOW CHANCE...AND
WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE MOST ELSEWHERE. WITH SFC TEMPS BELOW
FREEZING ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF NE NJ...THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY...SOUTHERN CT AND THE PINE BARRENS OF EASTERN LONG
ISLAND...P-TYPE COULD BE FREEZING RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES AND
FREEZING RAIN/RAIN FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. NYC/LONG ISLAND SHOULD
STAY AS PLAIN RAIN...WITH SOME FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE FOR THE PINE
BARRENS OF LONG ISLAND.

LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S INLAND
AND IN THE MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS NYC/LONG ISLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EARLY SUNDAY...WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES NORTH OF THE
REGION...WITH UPPER RIDGING QUICKLY BUILDING DURING THE DAY. THIS
IS IN RESPONSE TO DIGGING MID WEST TROUGH.

THE RIDGE GIVES WAY TO SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE THAT TRACKS
NORTHEAST...PASSING JUST TO THE WEST OF THE AREA EARLY MONDAY.
MEANWHILE...MAIN TROUGH AMPLIFIES AND CLOSES OFF ACROSS THE UPPER
MID WEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS CLOSED LOW WEAKENS AND LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEK AS MAIN TROUGH SLOWLY MAKES EASTWARD
PROGRESS. TROUGH AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

AT THE SURFACE...A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH SUNDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE WARM FRONT
MOVES THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AS LOCAL AREA BECOMES WARM SECTORED. THE
DEEP LOW PRESSURE PASSES ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH BY TUESDAY. THIS FRONT SETTLES EAST OF THE AREA MID WEEK AS
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES ALONG IT...LIKELY PASSING JUST
SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK. BY THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE AND FRONT TO
THE WEST APPROACHES. WITH UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVERHEAD LATE
THURSDAY/FRIDAY...SFC LOW PRESSURE MAY INTENSIFY OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY.

AS FOR WEATHER...ANY LINGERING LIGHT RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN ENDS
SUNDAY. TEMPS WARM INTO THE LOWER 50S. WITH SOUTH
WINDS...TEMPERATURES REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD SUNDAY NIGHT FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR...THEN WARM INTO THE 60S MONDAY AS AREA BECOMES WARM
SECTORED.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO GRADUALLY FALL
BACK CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS BY MID TO LATE WEEK.

POPS AND WEATHER WILL DEPEND ON EVENTUAL PLACEMENT OF LOW PRESSURE
MID WEEK AND AGAIN LATE WEEK. KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE FOR
NOW...WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITIES EAST OF NYC. WEATHER TYPE WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH TODAY.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH
THIS MORNING...WITH A MID LEVEL DECK MOVING IN LATE AFT/EVE.
BRIEF MVFR CIG POSSIBLE 00Z TO 03Z SUN AT KSWF.

WINDS SHIFT TO THE SW AT LESS THAN 5 KT THRU EARLY MORNING...THEN
INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT WITH G20KT AFTER 14-15Z. GUSTS LOST BY 00Z
SUN.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUN THROUGH WED...
.SUN...VFR.
.SUN NIGHT-MON...BECOMING MVFR/IFR. POSSIBLY SUB-IFR. RA AND FG
WITH LLWS POSSIBLE.
.MON NIGHT-TUE...VFR.
.WED...MAINLY VFR...ALTHOUGH POSSIBLE RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX MAY
IMPACT THE AREA...ESPECIALLY EAST OF NYC METRO.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRES PASSES TO OUR SOUTH TODAY WITH THE GRADIENT TIGHTENING
THIS AFTERNOON. SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR AT LEAST THE OCEAN
WATERS LATE DAY AND TONIGHT. WILL ISSUE SCA AS NECESSARY WITH THE
NEXT UPDATE.

WESTERLY WINDS SHIFT TOWARD THE SW SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES. SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AHEAD
OF AND THEN BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH A SLIGHT SHIFT FROM S/SE TO S/SW.

THEN WINDS SHIFT AGAIN BACK TO THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THESE WINDS TURN TOWARD THE NW TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE
WATERS MAY TURN THE WINDS TOWARD THE N/NW LATE WEDNESDAY.

WINDS REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. IN FACT GALES ARE
POSSIBLE MONDAY BEHIND THE WARM FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT.

WINDS DO DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BRIEFLY AS THE HIGH BUILDS.

SEAS SHOULD REMAIN ROUGH THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY CONDITIONS TODAY...AND ONLY LIGHT PRECIP POSSIBLE TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KALY 220513
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1213 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS WILL END OVERNIGHT...WITH MAINLY COLD CONDITIONS FOR THE
REST OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.  A WARM FRONT WILL
BRING A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE REGION LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING MILDER AIR TO THE REGION
FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH SOME
RAINFALL AS WELL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1025 PM EST...VERY COLD AND QUIET CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
ACROSS MOST THE REGION WITH A SFC ANTICYCLONE RIDGING IN FROM THE
SOUTH. A BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES IS LIFTING NORTH ACROSS
THE TUG HILL PLATEAU WITH THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW BACKING. A FEW OF
THESE SNOW SHOWERS ARE GETTING INTO THE WRN DACKS WITH LIGHT
ACCUMS OF A COATING TO A HALF AN INCH EXPECTED FOR NRN HERKIMER
CTY. SOME OF THE CLOUDS WILL SPILL INTO THE LAKE GEORGE REGION FOR
AN HOUR OR SO...BUT THE SKIES SHOULD CLEAR THEREAFTER WITH LOWS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FCST AREA IN THE TEENS WITH SOME SINGLE DIGITS
OVER THE NRN TIER /SRN DACKS...SRN GREENS AND LAKE GEORGE REGION/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AFTER A COLD AND DRY START...CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE
WEST FOR DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. OUR REGION WILL BE INFLUENCED BY
FAST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AT 500 HPA...AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BE
MOVING TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES. 850 HPA TEMPS WILL
BE RAPIDLY WARMING THROUGH THE DAY THANKS TO WARM AIR
ADVECTION...AND 850 HPA TEMPS WILL RISE TO OR ABOVE FREEZING IN
MANY AREAS BY THE AFTN HOURS.

WITH THE ISENTROPIC LIFT/WARM AIR ADVECTION UNDERWAY...SOME LIGHT
PRECIP WILL BREAK OUT FROM WEST TO EAST LATE IN THE DAY AND
CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING PRECIP
WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA /NORTH OF I-90/...CLOSER
TO THE LARGE SCALE FORCING. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD
OF LIGHT SNOW FOR THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS TO START...MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL BE IN THE FORM OF A
WINTRY MIX CHANGING TO RAIN. IN MANY NORTHERN AREAS...THERE WILL
BE A PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIP /SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN/...WHICH WILL
EVENTUALLY CHANGE TO JUST A COLD PLAIN RAIN OVERNIGHT. FOR SOME
AREAS...INCLUDING THE GREATER CAPITAL REGION...TEMPS ON SAT MAY
RISE JUST ABOVE FREEZING...AND THEN HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE FOR
SAT NIGHT...AND PRECIP MAY WIND UP ONLY BEING IN THE FORM OF A
PLAIN COLD RAIN. ALL MEMBERS OF THE 15Z SREF SUGGEST THIS EVENT
WILL BE LIQUID FOR ALBANY...AND EVEN THE 12Z GEFS SHOW A LIMITED
WINDOW FOR MIXED PRECIP AT ALBANY AS WELL. THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING MIXED PRECIP WILL BE FOR THE ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE
SARATOGA REGION...SRN VT...TACONICS AND THE BERKSHIRES. EVEN IN
THE HIGH TERRAIN...LIGHT QPF WILL PREVENT ICE ACCRETION FROM BEING
MORE THAN JUST A COATING TO A TENTH OF AN INCH...WITH JUST A
COATING OF SNOW/SLEET POSSIBLE FOR HIGH TERRAIN AREAS AS WELL.

TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 30S FOR MANY AREAS ON
SATURDAY. ON SAT NIGHT...TEMPS WILL HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME OUT OF THE
S-SW AND BRING MILDER AIR INTO THE REGION.

ANY PRECIP LOOKS TO END BY SUNDAY MORNING...BUT IT WILL PROBABLY
REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...AS A LINGERING
BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER THE AREA. WE CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
RAIN SHOWER AROUND DUE TO THE SFC BOUNDARY NEARBY...BUT MOST AREAS
LOOK TO STAY DRY ON SUNDAY. THERE MAY BE SOME CLEARING LATE IN THE
DAY...MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN AREAS. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE SHORT
LIVED...AS YET ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE
SOUTH AND WEST. TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY MILDER ON SUNDAY...WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S TO LOW 50S.

THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE A MUCH STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CUTTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS STORM WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA LATE ON SUN
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. A WIDESPREAD STEADY RAINFALL WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA...AND PRECIP WILL BE IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAIN
EVERYWHERE DUE TO WARM TEMPS ALOFT. 850 HPA TEMPS WILL RISE TO AT
LEAST 10 DEGREES C EVERYWHERE BY MONDAY. A SOLID HALF INCH OF RAIN
IS EXPECTED FOR THE WHOLE REGION...AS 850 HPA SOUTHERLY WINDS OF
50 KTS OR MORE TRANSPORT PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THIS
WILL KEPT TEMPS MILD FOR SUN NIGHT...WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE UPPER
30S TO MID 40S. RAINFALL SHOULD BE ENDING ON MONDAY MORNING FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH.  BEHIND THE RAINFALL...THERE MAY BE SOME CLEARING
FOR LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY...AS OUR REGION BECOMES FULLY IN THE
STORM/S WARM SECTOR. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO REACH THE MID
50S TO MID 60S...WHICH IS 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE THE THE DOMINATE FEATURE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE EASTERN UNITED NEXT WEEK WITH NUMEROUS SHORT WAVES. IN THE
MEANWHILE THERE WILL BE RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST WHICH WILL
DAMPEN AS IT MOVES EASTWARD AS A TROUGH HEADS FOR THE WEST COAST
LATE IN THE WEEK. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK
ESPECIALLY AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. THE UNCERTAINTIES WILL ORIGINATE
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WHERE THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IS MODEL
GUIDANCE.

WE START OUT WITH SOME LINGERING PRECIPITATION AS LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WHICH PASSES WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST CONTINUES TO MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD
BECOME FAVORABLE IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW FOR LAKE EFFECT TO OCCUR
INTO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

IN THE MEANTIME...GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A SHORT WAVE ROTATING
ABOUT BASE OF THE DEEP TROUGH OVER NEAR THE GULF OF MEXICO COAST
TUESDAY WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST BY
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO HEAD NORTHEASTWARD
REMAINING WELL OFFSHORE. HOWEVER THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD
IN THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE LOW. THE ECMWF TRACKS THE LOW CLOSER
TO THE COAST THAN THE GFS AND BRINGS ITS PRECIPITATION SHIELD ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE GFS KEEP ITS PRECIPITATION
TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. FOLLOWING THE LEAD OF THE WEATHER PREDICTION
CENTER HAVE USED A BLENDED APPROACH. HAVE RUN WITH CHANCE POPS
ACROSS MY FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE
NEAR NORMAL WHICH MEANS WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN DURING THE DAY FOR SOME
AREAS.

THERE IS MUCH GREATER UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AS WE HEAD INTO
THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK...THANKSGIVING DAY AND FRIDAY. THE TIMING
OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES IN BOTH THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS
WILL HAVE BIG IMPACT ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER AND WHERE AND WHEN A
LOW FORMS AND HOW STRONG IT MAY GET. INDICATIONS ARE A LOW SHOULD
FORM SOMEWHERE OFF THE SOUTHEAST TO MID ATLANTIC COAST BY THURSDAY
NIGHT. HAVE RUN WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS/CLIMATOLOGICALLY FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY SINCE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IS SO HIGH.

AS FOR THANKSGIVING DAY...AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE WEATHER
SHOULD BE FAIR AS WE ARE BETWEEN SYSTEMS.

OVERALL GUIDANCE INDICATES TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY COOL AS THE
WEEK PROGRESSES WITH BELOW NORMAL READINGS EXPECTED BY THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT...AND MOVE
OFFSHORE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT MIXED PCPN TO THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WITH MAINLY RAIN AND SLEET EXCEPT FOR
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET AT KGFL.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS DURING MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 06Z
SUNDAY. THE SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT...WITH THE MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN BETWEEN 10-15Z/SAT. THERE COULD BE SOME
SPOTTY SNOW SHOWERS AROUND FROM KALB NORTH AND EAST AFTER
20Z/SAT...AND THESE WERE ADDRESSED WITH A VCSH FOR KALB/KGFL/KPSF
FOR NOW. THIS EVENING THE PCPN WILL BEGIN AND WHILE CIGS WL REMAIN
VFR...MVFR VSBYS ARE EXPECTED AT KGFL/KALB AND KPSF. ONCE AGAIN
THE PCPN TYPE WL BE MAINLY -RAPL EXCEPT FOR -FZRAPL AT KGFL.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SW TO W AT 4-10 KTS EARLY THIS
EVENING..AND THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 5 KTS
OR LESS AFTER 05Z/SAT. EXPECT THE WINDS TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST AT 8-12 KTS LATE TOMORROW MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME GUSTS CLOSE TO 20 KTS AT KALB. WINDS WILL BE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 4 TO 10 KTS THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

THERE WILL BE A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER FAR
WESTERN AREAS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED. A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL IMPACT THE REGION...MAINLY FOR
AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...FOR LATE TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW
NIGHT. BASIN AVERAGE LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF PRECIP WILL BE A
QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON AREA
RIVERS AND STREAMS. ALONG WITH A MILDER AIR MASS...A MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAINFALL...WILL
IMPACT THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR SO. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...11/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS







000
FXUS61 KALY 220513
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1213 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS WILL END OVERNIGHT...WITH MAINLY COLD CONDITIONS FOR THE
REST OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.  A WARM FRONT WILL
BRING A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE REGION LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING MILDER AIR TO THE REGION
FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH SOME
RAINFALL AS WELL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1025 PM EST...VERY COLD AND QUIET CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
ACROSS MOST THE REGION WITH A SFC ANTICYCLONE RIDGING IN FROM THE
SOUTH. A BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES IS LIFTING NORTH ACROSS
THE TUG HILL PLATEAU WITH THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW BACKING. A FEW OF
THESE SNOW SHOWERS ARE GETTING INTO THE WRN DACKS WITH LIGHT
ACCUMS OF A COATING TO A HALF AN INCH EXPECTED FOR NRN HERKIMER
CTY. SOME OF THE CLOUDS WILL SPILL INTO THE LAKE GEORGE REGION FOR
AN HOUR OR SO...BUT THE SKIES SHOULD CLEAR THEREAFTER WITH LOWS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FCST AREA IN THE TEENS WITH SOME SINGLE DIGITS
OVER THE NRN TIER /SRN DACKS...SRN GREENS AND LAKE GEORGE REGION/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AFTER A COLD AND DRY START...CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE
WEST FOR DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. OUR REGION WILL BE INFLUENCED BY
FAST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AT 500 HPA...AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BE
MOVING TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES. 850 HPA TEMPS WILL
BE RAPIDLY WARMING THROUGH THE DAY THANKS TO WARM AIR
ADVECTION...AND 850 HPA TEMPS WILL RISE TO OR ABOVE FREEZING IN
MANY AREAS BY THE AFTN HOURS.

WITH THE ISENTROPIC LIFT/WARM AIR ADVECTION UNDERWAY...SOME LIGHT
PRECIP WILL BREAK OUT FROM WEST TO EAST LATE IN THE DAY AND
CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING PRECIP
WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA /NORTH OF I-90/...CLOSER
TO THE LARGE SCALE FORCING. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD
OF LIGHT SNOW FOR THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS TO START...MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL BE IN THE FORM OF A
WINTRY MIX CHANGING TO RAIN. IN MANY NORTHERN AREAS...THERE WILL
BE A PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIP /SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN/...WHICH WILL
EVENTUALLY CHANGE TO JUST A COLD PLAIN RAIN OVERNIGHT. FOR SOME
AREAS...INCLUDING THE GREATER CAPITAL REGION...TEMPS ON SAT MAY
RISE JUST ABOVE FREEZING...AND THEN HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE FOR
SAT NIGHT...AND PRECIP MAY WIND UP ONLY BEING IN THE FORM OF A
PLAIN COLD RAIN. ALL MEMBERS OF THE 15Z SREF SUGGEST THIS EVENT
WILL BE LIQUID FOR ALBANY...AND EVEN THE 12Z GEFS SHOW A LIMITED
WINDOW FOR MIXED PRECIP AT ALBANY AS WELL. THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING MIXED PRECIP WILL BE FOR THE ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE
SARATOGA REGION...SRN VT...TACONICS AND THE BERKSHIRES. EVEN IN
THE HIGH TERRAIN...LIGHT QPF WILL PREVENT ICE ACCRETION FROM BEING
MORE THAN JUST A COATING TO A TENTH OF AN INCH...WITH JUST A
COATING OF SNOW/SLEET POSSIBLE FOR HIGH TERRAIN AREAS AS WELL.

TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 30S FOR MANY AREAS ON
SATURDAY. ON SAT NIGHT...TEMPS WILL HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME OUT OF THE
S-SW AND BRING MILDER AIR INTO THE REGION.

ANY PRECIP LOOKS TO END BY SUNDAY MORNING...BUT IT WILL PROBABLY
REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...AS A LINGERING
BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER THE AREA. WE CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
RAIN SHOWER AROUND DUE TO THE SFC BOUNDARY NEARBY...BUT MOST AREAS
LOOK TO STAY DRY ON SUNDAY. THERE MAY BE SOME CLEARING LATE IN THE
DAY...MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN AREAS. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE SHORT
LIVED...AS YET ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE
SOUTH AND WEST. TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY MILDER ON SUNDAY...WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S TO LOW 50S.

THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE A MUCH STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CUTTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS STORM WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA LATE ON SUN
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. A WIDESPREAD STEADY RAINFALL WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA...AND PRECIP WILL BE IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAIN
EVERYWHERE DUE TO WARM TEMPS ALOFT. 850 HPA TEMPS WILL RISE TO AT
LEAST 10 DEGREES C EVERYWHERE BY MONDAY. A SOLID HALF INCH OF RAIN
IS EXPECTED FOR THE WHOLE REGION...AS 850 HPA SOUTHERLY WINDS OF
50 KTS OR MORE TRANSPORT PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THIS
WILL KEPT TEMPS MILD FOR SUN NIGHT...WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE UPPER
30S TO MID 40S. RAINFALL SHOULD BE ENDING ON MONDAY MORNING FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH.  BEHIND THE RAINFALL...THERE MAY BE SOME CLEARING
FOR LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY...AS OUR REGION BECOMES FULLY IN THE
STORM/S WARM SECTOR. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO REACH THE MID
50S TO MID 60S...WHICH IS 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE THE THE DOMINATE FEATURE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE EASTERN UNITED NEXT WEEK WITH NUMEROUS SHORT WAVES. IN THE
MEANWHILE THERE WILL BE RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST WHICH WILL
DAMPEN AS IT MOVES EASTWARD AS A TROUGH HEADS FOR THE WEST COAST
LATE IN THE WEEK. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK
ESPECIALLY AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. THE UNCERTAINTIES WILL ORIGINATE
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WHERE THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IS MODEL
GUIDANCE.

WE START OUT WITH SOME LINGERING PRECIPITATION AS LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WHICH PASSES WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST CONTINUES TO MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD
BECOME FAVORABLE IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW FOR LAKE EFFECT TO OCCUR
INTO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

IN THE MEANTIME...GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A SHORT WAVE ROTATING
ABOUT BASE OF THE DEEP TROUGH OVER NEAR THE GULF OF MEXICO COAST
TUESDAY WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST BY
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO HEAD NORTHEASTWARD
REMAINING WELL OFFSHORE. HOWEVER THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD
IN THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE LOW. THE ECMWF TRACKS THE LOW CLOSER
TO THE COAST THAN THE GFS AND BRINGS ITS PRECIPITATION SHIELD ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE GFS KEEP ITS PRECIPITATION
TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. FOLLOWING THE LEAD OF THE WEATHER PREDICTION
CENTER HAVE USED A BLENDED APPROACH. HAVE RUN WITH CHANCE POPS
ACROSS MY FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE
NEAR NORMAL WHICH MEANS WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN DURING THE DAY FOR SOME
AREAS.

THERE IS MUCH GREATER UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AS WE HEAD INTO
THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK...THANKSGIVING DAY AND FRIDAY. THE TIMING
OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES IN BOTH THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS
WILL HAVE BIG IMPACT ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER AND WHERE AND WHEN A
LOW FORMS AND HOW STRONG IT MAY GET. INDICATIONS ARE A LOW SHOULD
FORM SOMEWHERE OFF THE SOUTHEAST TO MID ATLANTIC COAST BY THURSDAY
NIGHT. HAVE RUN WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS/CLIMATOLOGICALLY FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY SINCE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IS SO HIGH.

AS FOR THANKSGIVING DAY...AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE WEATHER
SHOULD BE FAIR AS WE ARE BETWEEN SYSTEMS.

OVERALL GUIDANCE INDICATES TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY COOL AS THE
WEEK PROGRESSES WITH BELOW NORMAL READINGS EXPECTED BY THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT...AND MOVE
OFFSHORE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT MIXED PCPN TO THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WITH MAINLY RAIN AND SLEET EXCEPT FOR
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET AT KGFL.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS DURING MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 06Z
SUNDAY. THE SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT...WITH THE MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN BETWEEN 10-15Z/SAT. THERE COULD BE SOME
SPOTTY SNOW SHOWERS AROUND FROM KALB NORTH AND EAST AFTER
20Z/SAT...AND THESE WERE ADDRESSED WITH A VCSH FOR KALB/KGFL/KPSF
FOR NOW. THIS EVENING THE PCPN WILL BEGIN AND WHILE CIGS WL REMAIN
VFR...MVFR VSBYS ARE EXPECTED AT KGFL/KALB AND KPSF. ONCE AGAIN
THE PCPN TYPE WL BE MAINLY -RAPL EXCEPT FOR -FZRAPL AT KGFL.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SW TO W AT 4-10 KTS EARLY THIS
EVENING..AND THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 5 KTS
OR LESS AFTER 05Z/SAT. EXPECT THE WINDS TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST AT 8-12 KTS LATE TOMORROW MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME GUSTS CLOSE TO 20 KTS AT KALB. WINDS WILL BE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 4 TO 10 KTS THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

THERE WILL BE A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER FAR
WESTERN AREAS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED. A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL IMPACT THE REGION...MAINLY FOR
AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...FOR LATE TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW
NIGHT. BASIN AVERAGE LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF PRECIP WILL BE A
QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON AREA
RIVERS AND STREAMS. ALONG WITH A MILDER AIR MASS...A MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAINFALL...WILL
IMPACT THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR SO. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...11/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS








000
FXUS61 KOKX 220454
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1154 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE THROUGH SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT THEN
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH SUNDAY AND LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
AND THEN STALLS OFFSHORE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. LOW
PRESSURE MAY RIDE ALONG THE FRONT AND PASS TO THE EAST
WEDNESDAY...WITH ANOTHER LOW POSSIBLY TRACKING EAST FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN OFF FASTER THAN FORECAST...ESPECIALLY IN
NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS. HAVE TWEAKED TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD
THERE BASED ON LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE...MADE
ONLY MINOR CHANGES BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS AND
GUIDANCE WITH THIS UPDATE.

A LARGE 1035 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS CENTERED OVER EASTERN
VA AND NC AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
OVERNIGHT.

SFC WINDS HAVE DECOUPLED AT ALL BUT AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST...BUT
EXPECT TO DECOUPLE EVEN THERE WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
GIVEN LIGHT WINDS AND A CLEAR SKY...EXPECT STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT EXPECT ANOTHER COLD NIGHT...WITH
LOWS PLUMMETING INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20 FOR MOST
COASTAL AREAS...AND AS LOW AS THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS
ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THE EXCEPTION IS IN THE IMMEDIATE NYC METRO
WHERE THE URBAN HEAT ISLAND EFFECT WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 20S. THESE LOWS OVERALL ARE 15-25 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MOSTLY SUNNY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY SATURDAY. SW FLOW WILL USHER A
MILDER AIR MASS INTO THE REGION WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...AND IN THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS. THESE TEMPS...HOWEVER...ARE STILL 10-15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY AND AT NIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. SOME LIGHT...OVERRUNNING
PRECIP WILL DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. BEST FOCUS WILL
BE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ZONES WHERE POPS WILL BE LOW CHANCE...AND
WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE MOST ELSEWHERE. WITH SFC TEMPS BELOW
FREEZING ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF NE NJ...THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY...SOUTHERN CT AND THE PINE BARRENS OF EASTERN LONG
ISLAND...P-TYPE COULD BE FREEZING RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES AND
FREEZING RAIN/RAIN FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. NYC/LONG ISLAND SHOULD
STAY AS PLAIN RAIN...WITH SOME FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE FOR THE PINE
BARRENS OF LONG ISLAND.

LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S INLAND
AND IN THE MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS NYC/LONG ISLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EARLY SUNDAY...WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES NORTH OF THE
REGION...WITH UPPER RIDGING QUICKLY BUILDING DURING THE DAY. THIS
IS IN RESPONSE TO DIGGING MID WEST TROUGH.

THE RIDGE GIVES WAY TO SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE THAT TRACKS
NORTHEAST...PASSING JUST TO THE WEST OF THE AREA EARLY MONDAY.
MEANWHILE...MAIN TROUGH AMPLIFIES AND CLOSES OFF ACROSS THE UPPER
MID WEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS CLOSED LOW WEAKENS AND LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEK AS MAIN TROUGH SLOWLY MAKES EASTWARD
PROGRESS. TROUGH AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

AT THE SURFACE...A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH SUNDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE WARM FRONT
MOVES THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AS LOCAL AREA BECOMES WARM SECTORED. THE
DEEP LOW PRESSURE PASSES ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH BY TUESDAY. THIS FRONT SETTLES EAST OF THE AREA MID WEEK AS
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES ALONG IT...LIKELY PASSING JUST
SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK. BY THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE AND FRONT TO
THE WEST APPROACHES. WITH UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVERHEAD LATE
THURSDAY/FRIDAY...SFC LOW PRESSURE MAY INTENSIFY OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY.

AS FOR WEATHER...ANY LINGERING LIGHT RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN ENDS
SUNDAY. TEMPS WARM INTO THE LOWER 50S. WITH SOUTH
WINDS...TEMPERATURES REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD SUNDAY NIGHT FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR...THEN WARM INTO THE 60S MONDAY AS AREA BECOMES WARM
SECTORED.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO GRADUALLY FALL
BACK CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS BY MID TO LATE WEEK.

POPS AND WEATHER WILL DEPEND ON EVENTUAL PLACEMENT OF LOW PRESSURE
MID WEEK AND AGAIN LATE WEEK. KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE FOR
NOW...WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITIES EAST OF NYC. WEATHER TYPE WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND PASSES SOUTH OF
THE AREA SATURDAY.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...WITH A MID LEVEL
DECK MOVING IN LATE SAT AFT/EVE.

WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST AND WILL BE QUITE LIGHT LATE TONIGHT.
SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT WITH G20KT AFTER 14-15Z
SATURDAY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUN THROUGH WED...
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...VFR. BRIEF MVFR CIG POSSIBLE AT KSWF SAT EVE.
.SUN NIGHT-MON...BECOMING MVFR/IFR. POSSIBLY SUB-IFR. RA AND FG
WITH LLWS POSSIBLE.
.MON NIGHT-TUE...VFR.
.WED...MAINLY VFR...ALTHOUGH POSSIBLE RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX MAY
IMPACT THE AREA...ESPECIALLY EAST OF NYC METRO.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS ARE BELOW 25 KT AT 44025 AND SEAS HAVE FALLEN BELOW 4 FT AT
BOTH 44025 AND 44017...THEREFORE HAVE CANCELLED THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS EAST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET.

OTHERWISE...MADE MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE BASED ON THE LATEST
TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON
TRACK.

TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING
OVER THE WATERS. THAT HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY...AND THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR AT
LEAST THE OCEAN WATERS LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

WESTERLY WINDS SHIFT TOWARD THE SW SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES. SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AHEAD
OF AND THEN BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH A SLIGHT SHIFT FROM S/SE TO S/SW.

THEN WINDS SHIFT AGAIN BACK TO THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THESE WINDS TURN TOWARD THE NW TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE
WATERS MAY TURN THE WINDS TOWARD THE N/NW LATE WEDNESDAY.

WINDS REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. IN FACT GALES ARE
POSSIBLE MONDAY BEHIND THE WARM FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT.

WINDS DO DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BRIEFLY AS THE HIGH BUILDS.

SEAS SHOULD REMAIN ROUGH THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY...AND ONLY LIGHT PRECIP POSSIBLE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/MPS/FIG
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/GC
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...MALOIT/GC/MPS/FIG
HYDROLOGY...MPS




000
FXUS61 KOKX 220454
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1154 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE THROUGH SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT THEN
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH SUNDAY AND LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
AND THEN STALLS OFFSHORE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. LOW
PRESSURE MAY RIDE ALONG THE FRONT AND PASS TO THE EAST
WEDNESDAY...WITH ANOTHER LOW POSSIBLY TRACKING EAST FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN OFF FASTER THAN FORECAST...ESPECIALLY IN
NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS. HAVE TWEAKED TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD
THERE BASED ON LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE...MADE
ONLY MINOR CHANGES BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS AND
GUIDANCE WITH THIS UPDATE.

A LARGE 1035 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS CENTERED OVER EASTERN
VA AND NC AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
OVERNIGHT.

SFC WINDS HAVE DECOUPLED AT ALL BUT AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST...BUT
EXPECT TO DECOUPLE EVEN THERE WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
GIVEN LIGHT WINDS AND A CLEAR SKY...EXPECT STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT EXPECT ANOTHER COLD NIGHT...WITH
LOWS PLUMMETING INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20 FOR MOST
COASTAL AREAS...AND AS LOW AS THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS
ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THE EXCEPTION IS IN THE IMMEDIATE NYC METRO
WHERE THE URBAN HEAT ISLAND EFFECT WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 20S. THESE LOWS OVERALL ARE 15-25 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MOSTLY SUNNY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY SATURDAY. SW FLOW WILL USHER A
MILDER AIR MASS INTO THE REGION WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...AND IN THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS. THESE TEMPS...HOWEVER...ARE STILL 10-15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY AND AT NIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. SOME LIGHT...OVERRUNNING
PRECIP WILL DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. BEST FOCUS WILL
BE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ZONES WHERE POPS WILL BE LOW CHANCE...AND
WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE MOST ELSEWHERE. WITH SFC TEMPS BELOW
FREEZING ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF NE NJ...THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY...SOUTHERN CT AND THE PINE BARRENS OF EASTERN LONG
ISLAND...P-TYPE COULD BE FREEZING RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES AND
FREEZING RAIN/RAIN FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. NYC/LONG ISLAND SHOULD
STAY AS PLAIN RAIN...WITH SOME FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE FOR THE PINE
BARRENS OF LONG ISLAND.

LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S INLAND
AND IN THE MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS NYC/LONG ISLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EARLY SUNDAY...WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES NORTH OF THE
REGION...WITH UPPER RIDGING QUICKLY BUILDING DURING THE DAY. THIS
IS IN RESPONSE TO DIGGING MID WEST TROUGH.

THE RIDGE GIVES WAY TO SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE THAT TRACKS
NORTHEAST...PASSING JUST TO THE WEST OF THE AREA EARLY MONDAY.
MEANWHILE...MAIN TROUGH AMPLIFIES AND CLOSES OFF ACROSS THE UPPER
MID WEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS CLOSED LOW WEAKENS AND LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEK AS MAIN TROUGH SLOWLY MAKES EASTWARD
PROGRESS. TROUGH AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

AT THE SURFACE...A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH SUNDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE WARM FRONT
MOVES THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AS LOCAL AREA BECOMES WARM SECTORED. THE
DEEP LOW PRESSURE PASSES ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH BY TUESDAY. THIS FRONT SETTLES EAST OF THE AREA MID WEEK AS
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES ALONG IT...LIKELY PASSING JUST
SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK. BY THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE AND FRONT TO
THE WEST APPROACHES. WITH UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVERHEAD LATE
THURSDAY/FRIDAY...SFC LOW PRESSURE MAY INTENSIFY OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY.

AS FOR WEATHER...ANY LINGERING LIGHT RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN ENDS
SUNDAY. TEMPS WARM INTO THE LOWER 50S. WITH SOUTH
WINDS...TEMPERATURES REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD SUNDAY NIGHT FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR...THEN WARM INTO THE 60S MONDAY AS AREA BECOMES WARM
SECTORED.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO GRADUALLY FALL
BACK CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS BY MID TO LATE WEEK.

POPS AND WEATHER WILL DEPEND ON EVENTUAL PLACEMENT OF LOW PRESSURE
MID WEEK AND AGAIN LATE WEEK. KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE FOR
NOW...WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITIES EAST OF NYC. WEATHER TYPE WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND PASSES SOUTH OF
THE AREA SATURDAY.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...WITH A MID LEVEL
DECK MOVING IN LATE SAT AFT/EVE.

WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST AND WILL BE QUITE LIGHT LATE TONIGHT.
SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT WITH G20KT AFTER 14-15Z
SATURDAY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUN THROUGH WED...
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...VFR. BRIEF MVFR CIG POSSIBLE AT KSWF SAT EVE.
.SUN NIGHT-MON...BECOMING MVFR/IFR. POSSIBLY SUB-IFR. RA AND FG
WITH LLWS POSSIBLE.
.MON NIGHT-TUE...VFR.
.WED...MAINLY VFR...ALTHOUGH POSSIBLE RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX MAY
IMPACT THE AREA...ESPECIALLY EAST OF NYC METRO.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS ARE BELOW 25 KT AT 44025 AND SEAS HAVE FALLEN BELOW 4 FT AT
BOTH 44025 AND 44017...THEREFORE HAVE CANCELLED THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS EAST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET.

OTHERWISE...MADE MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE BASED ON THE LATEST
TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON
TRACK.

TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING
OVER THE WATERS. THAT HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY...AND THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR AT
LEAST THE OCEAN WATERS LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

WESTERLY WINDS SHIFT TOWARD THE SW SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES. SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AHEAD
OF AND THEN BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH A SLIGHT SHIFT FROM S/SE TO S/SW.

THEN WINDS SHIFT AGAIN BACK TO THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THESE WINDS TURN TOWARD THE NW TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE
WATERS MAY TURN THE WINDS TOWARD THE N/NW LATE WEDNESDAY.

WINDS REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. IN FACT GALES ARE
POSSIBLE MONDAY BEHIND THE WARM FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT.

WINDS DO DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BRIEFLY AS THE HIGH BUILDS.

SEAS SHOULD REMAIN ROUGH THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY...AND ONLY LIGHT PRECIP POSSIBLE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/MPS/FIG
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/GC
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...MALOIT/GC/MPS/FIG
HYDROLOGY...MPS





000
FXUS61 KALY 220326
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1026 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS WILL END OVERNIGHT...WITH MAINLY COLD CONDITIONS FOR THE
REST OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.  A WARM FRONT WILL
BRING A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE REGION LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING MILDER AIR TO THE REGION
FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH SOME
RAINFALL AS WELL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1025 PM EST...VERY COLD AND QUIET CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
ACROSS MOST THE REGION WITH A SFC ANTICYCLONE RIDGING IN FROM THE
SOUTH. A BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES IS LIFTING NORTH ACROSS
THE TUG HILL PLATEAU WITH THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW BACKING. A FEW OF
THESE SNOW SHOWERS ARE GETTING INTO THE WRN DACKS WITH LIGHT
ACCUMS OF A COATING TO A HALF AN INCH EXPECTED FOR NRN HERKIMER
CTY. SOME OF THE CLOUDS WILL SPILL INTO THE LAKE GEORGE REGION FOR
AN HOUR OR SO...BUT THE SKIES SHOULD CLEAR THEREAFTER WITH LOWS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FCST AREA IN THE TEENS WITH SOME SINGLE DIGITS
OVER THE NRN TIER /SRN DACKS...SRN GREENS AND LAKE GEORGE REGION/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AFTER A COLD AND DRY START...CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE
WEST FOR DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. OUR REGION WILL BE INFLUENCED BY
FAST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AT 500 HPA...AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BE
MOVING TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES. 850 HPA TEMPS WILL
BE RAPIDLY WARMING THROUGH THE DAY THANKS TO WARM AIR
ADVECTION...AND 850 HPA TEMPS WILL RISE TO OR ABOVE FREEZING IN
MANY AREAS BY THE AFTN HOURS.

WITH THE ISENTROPIC LIFT/WARM AIR ADVECTION UNDERWAY...SOME LIGHT
PRECIP WILL BREAK OUT FROM WEST TO EAST LATE IN THE DAY AND
CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING PRECIP
WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA /NORTH OF I-90/...CLOSER
TO THE LARGE SCALE FORCING. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD
OF LIGHT SNOW FOR THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS TO START...MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL BE IN THE FORM OF A
WINTRY MIX CHANGING TO RAIN. IN MANY NORTHERN AREAS...THERE WILL
BE A PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIP /SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN/...WHICH WILL
EVENTUALLY CHANGE TO JUST A COLD PLAIN RAIN OVERNIGHT. FOR SOME
AREAS...INCLUDING THE GREATER CAPITAL REGION...TEMPS ON SAT MAY
RISE JUST ABOVE FREEZING...AND THEN HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE FOR
SAT NIGHT...AND PRECIP MAY WIND UP ONLY BEING IN THE FORM OF A
PLAIN COLD RAIN. ALL MEMBERS OF THE 15Z SREF SUGGEST THIS EVENT
WILL BE LIQUID FOR ALBANY...AND EVEN THE 12Z GEFS SHOW A LIMITED
WINDOW FOR MIXED PRECIP AT ALBANY AS WELL. THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING MIXED PRECIP WILL BE FOR THE ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE
SARATOGA REGION...SRN VT...TACONICS AND THE BERKSHIRES. EVEN IN
THE HIGH TERRAIN...LIGHT QPF WILL PREVENT ICE ACCRETION FROM BEING
MORE THAN JUST A COATING TO A TENTH OF AN INCH...WITH JUST A
COATING OF SNOW/SLEET POSSIBLE FOR HIGH TERRAIN AREAS AS WELL.

TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 30S FOR MANY AREAS ON
SATURDAY. ON SAT NIGHT...TEMPS WILL HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME OUT OF THE
S-SW AND BRING MILDER AIR INTO THE REGION.

ANY PRECIP LOOKS TO END BY SUNDAY MORNING...BUT IT WILL PROBABLY
REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...AS A LINGERING
BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER THE AREA. WE CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
RAIN SHOWER AROUND DUE TO THE SFC BOUNDARY NEARBY...BUT MOST AREAS
LOOK TO STAY DRY ON SUNDAY. THERE MAY BE SOME CLEARING LATE IN THE
DAY...MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN AREAS. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE SHORT
LIVED...AS YET ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE
SOUTH AND WEST. TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY MILDER ON SUNDAY...WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S TO LOW 50S.

THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE A MUCH STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CUTTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS STORM WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA LATE ON SUN
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. A WIDESPREAD STEADY RAINFALL WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA...AND PRECIP WILL BE IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAIN
EVERYWHERE DUE TO WARM TEMPS ALOFT. 850 HPA TEMPS WILL RISE TO AT
LEAST 10 DEGREES C EVERYWHERE BY MONDAY. A SOLID HALF INCH OF RAIN
IS EXPECTED FOR THE WHOLE REGION...AS 850 HPA SOUTHERLY WINDS OF
50 KTS OR MORE TRANSPORT PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THIS
WILL KEPT TEMPS MILD FOR SUN NIGHT...WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE UPPER
30S TO MID 40S. RAINFALL SHOULD BE ENDING ON MONDAY MORNING FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH.  BEHIND THE RAINFALL...THERE MAY BE SOME CLEARING
FOR LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY...AS OUR REGION BECOMES FULLY IN THE
STORM/S WARM SECTOR. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO REACH THE MID
50S TO MID 60S...WHICH IS 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE THE THE DOMINATE FEATURE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE EASTERN UNITED NEXT WEEK WITH NUMEROUS SHORT WAVES. IN THE
MEANWHILE THERE WILL BE RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST WHICH WILL
DAMPEN AS IT MOVES EASTWARD AS A TROUGH HEADS FOR THE WEST COAST
LATE IN THE WEEK. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK
ESPECIALLY AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. THE UNCERTAINTIES WILL ORIGINATE
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WHERE THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IS MODEL
GUIDANCE.

WE START OUT WITH SOME LINGERING PRECIPITATION AS LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WHICH PASSES WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST CONTINUES TO MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD
BECOME FAVORABLE IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW FOR LAKE EFFECT TO OCCUR
INTO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

IN THE MEANTIME...GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A SHORT WAVE ROTATING
ABOUT BASE OF THE DEEP TROUGH OVER NEAR THE GULF OF MEXICO COAST
TUESDAY WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST BY
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO HEAD NORTHEASTWARD
REMAINING WELL OFFSHORE. HOWEVER THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD
IN THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE LOW. THE ECMWF TRACKS THE LOW CLOSER
TO THE COAST THAN THE GFS AND BRINGS ITS PRECIPITATION SHIELD ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE GFS KEEP ITS PRECIPITATION
TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. FOLLOWING THE LEAD OF THE WEATHER PREDICTION
CENTER HAVE USED A BLENDED APPROACH. HAVE RUN WITH CHANCE POPS
ACROSS MY FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE
NEAR NORMAL WHICH MEANS WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN DURING THE DAY FOR SOME
AREAS.

THERE IS MUCH GREATER UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AS WE HEAD INTO
THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK...THANKSGIVING DAY AND FRIDAY. THE TIMING
OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES IN BOTH THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS
WILL HAVE BIG IMPACT ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER AND WHERE AND WHEN A
LOW FORMS AND HOW STRONG IT MAY GET. INDICATIONS ARE A LOW SHOULD
FORM SOMEWHERE OFF THE SOUTHEAST TO MID ATLANTIC COAST BY THURSDAY
NIGHT. HAVE RUN WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS/CLIMATOLOGICALLY FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY SINCE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IS SO HIGH.

AS FOR THANKSGIVING DAY...AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE WEATHER
SHOULD BE FAIR AS WE ARE BETWEEN SYSTEMS.

OVERALL GUIDANCE INDICATES TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY COOL AS THE
WEEK PROGRESSES WITH BELOW NORMAL READINGS EXPECTED BY THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT...AND MOVE
OFFSHORE EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. A WEAK DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF A
WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT MIXED PCPN TO THE REGION LATE
TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH THICKENING AND
LOWERING CLOUDS DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE
SKIES WILL CLEAR TONIGHT...WITH THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN
BETWEEN 10-15Z/SAT. THERE COULD BE SOME SPOTTY SNOW SHOWERS AROUND
FROM KALB NORTH AND EAST AFTER 20Z/SAT...AND THESE WERE ADDRESSED
WITH A VCSH FOR KALB/KGFL/KPSF FOR NOW.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SW TO W AT 4-10 KTS EARLY THIS
EVENING..AND THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 5 KTS
OR LESS AFTER 05Z/SAT. EXPECT THE WINDS TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST AT 8-12 KTS LATE TOMORROW MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME GUSTS CLOSE TO 20 KTS AT KALB.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

THERE WILL BE A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER FAR
WESTERN AREAS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED. A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL IMPACT THE REGION...MAINLY FOR
AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...FOR LATE TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW
NIGHT. BASIN AVERAGE LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF PRECIP WILL BE A
QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON AREA
RIVERS AND STREAMS. ALONG WITH A MILDER AIR MASS...A MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAINFALL...WILL
IMPACT THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR SO. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS








000
FXUS61 KALY 220326
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1026 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS WILL END OVERNIGHT...WITH MAINLY COLD CONDITIONS FOR THE
REST OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.  A WARM FRONT WILL
BRING A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE REGION LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING MILDER AIR TO THE REGION
FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH SOME
RAINFALL AS WELL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1025 PM EST...VERY COLD AND QUIET CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
ACROSS MOST THE REGION WITH A SFC ANTICYCLONE RIDGING IN FROM THE
SOUTH. A BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES IS LIFTING NORTH ACROSS
THE TUG HILL PLATEAU WITH THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW BACKING. A FEW OF
THESE SNOW SHOWERS ARE GETTING INTO THE WRN DACKS WITH LIGHT
ACCUMS OF A COATING TO A HALF AN INCH EXPECTED FOR NRN HERKIMER
CTY. SOME OF THE CLOUDS WILL SPILL INTO THE LAKE GEORGE REGION FOR
AN HOUR OR SO...BUT THE SKIES SHOULD CLEAR THEREAFTER WITH LOWS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FCST AREA IN THE TEENS WITH SOME SINGLE DIGITS
OVER THE NRN TIER /SRN DACKS...SRN GREENS AND LAKE GEORGE REGION/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AFTER A COLD AND DRY START...CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE
WEST FOR DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. OUR REGION WILL BE INFLUENCED BY
FAST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AT 500 HPA...AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BE
MOVING TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES. 850 HPA TEMPS WILL
BE RAPIDLY WARMING THROUGH THE DAY THANKS TO WARM AIR
ADVECTION...AND 850 HPA TEMPS WILL RISE TO OR ABOVE FREEZING IN
MANY AREAS BY THE AFTN HOURS.

WITH THE ISENTROPIC LIFT/WARM AIR ADVECTION UNDERWAY...SOME LIGHT
PRECIP WILL BREAK OUT FROM WEST TO EAST LATE IN THE DAY AND
CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING PRECIP
WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA /NORTH OF I-90/...CLOSER
TO THE LARGE SCALE FORCING. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD
OF LIGHT SNOW FOR THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS TO START...MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL BE IN THE FORM OF A
WINTRY MIX CHANGING TO RAIN. IN MANY NORTHERN AREAS...THERE WILL
BE A PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIP /SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN/...WHICH WILL
EVENTUALLY CHANGE TO JUST A COLD PLAIN RAIN OVERNIGHT. FOR SOME
AREAS...INCLUDING THE GREATER CAPITAL REGION...TEMPS ON SAT MAY
RISE JUST ABOVE FREEZING...AND THEN HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE FOR
SAT NIGHT...AND PRECIP MAY WIND UP ONLY BEING IN THE FORM OF A
PLAIN COLD RAIN. ALL MEMBERS OF THE 15Z SREF SUGGEST THIS EVENT
WILL BE LIQUID FOR ALBANY...AND EVEN THE 12Z GEFS SHOW A LIMITED
WINDOW FOR MIXED PRECIP AT ALBANY AS WELL. THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING MIXED PRECIP WILL BE FOR THE ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE
SARATOGA REGION...SRN VT...TACONICS AND THE BERKSHIRES. EVEN IN
THE HIGH TERRAIN...LIGHT QPF WILL PREVENT ICE ACCRETION FROM BEING
MORE THAN JUST A COATING TO A TENTH OF AN INCH...WITH JUST A
COATING OF SNOW/SLEET POSSIBLE FOR HIGH TERRAIN AREAS AS WELL.

TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 30S FOR MANY AREAS ON
SATURDAY. ON SAT NIGHT...TEMPS WILL HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME OUT OF THE
S-SW AND BRING MILDER AIR INTO THE REGION.

ANY PRECIP LOOKS TO END BY SUNDAY MORNING...BUT IT WILL PROBABLY
REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...AS A LINGERING
BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER THE AREA. WE CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
RAIN SHOWER AROUND DUE TO THE SFC BOUNDARY NEARBY...BUT MOST AREAS
LOOK TO STAY DRY ON SUNDAY. THERE MAY BE SOME CLEARING LATE IN THE
DAY...MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN AREAS. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE SHORT
LIVED...AS YET ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE
SOUTH AND WEST. TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY MILDER ON SUNDAY...WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S TO LOW 50S.

THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE A MUCH STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CUTTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS STORM WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA LATE ON SUN
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. A WIDESPREAD STEADY RAINFALL WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA...AND PRECIP WILL BE IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAIN
EVERYWHERE DUE TO WARM TEMPS ALOFT. 850 HPA TEMPS WILL RISE TO AT
LEAST 10 DEGREES C EVERYWHERE BY MONDAY. A SOLID HALF INCH OF RAIN
IS EXPECTED FOR THE WHOLE REGION...AS 850 HPA SOUTHERLY WINDS OF
50 KTS OR MORE TRANSPORT PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THIS
WILL KEPT TEMPS MILD FOR SUN NIGHT...WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE UPPER
30S TO MID 40S. RAINFALL SHOULD BE ENDING ON MONDAY MORNING FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH.  BEHIND THE RAINFALL...THERE MAY BE SOME CLEARING
FOR LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY...AS OUR REGION BECOMES FULLY IN THE
STORM/S WARM SECTOR. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO REACH THE MID
50S TO MID 60S...WHICH IS 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE THE THE DOMINATE FEATURE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE EASTERN UNITED NEXT WEEK WITH NUMEROUS SHORT WAVES. IN THE
MEANWHILE THERE WILL BE RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST WHICH WILL
DAMPEN AS IT MOVES EASTWARD AS A TROUGH HEADS FOR THE WEST COAST
LATE IN THE WEEK. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK
ESPECIALLY AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. THE UNCERTAINTIES WILL ORIGINATE
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WHERE THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IS MODEL
GUIDANCE.

WE START OUT WITH SOME LINGERING PRECIPITATION AS LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WHICH PASSES WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST CONTINUES TO MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD
BECOME FAVORABLE IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW FOR LAKE EFFECT TO OCCUR
INTO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

IN THE MEANTIME...GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A SHORT WAVE ROTATING
ABOUT BASE OF THE DEEP TROUGH OVER NEAR THE GULF OF MEXICO COAST
TUESDAY WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST BY
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO HEAD NORTHEASTWARD
REMAINING WELL OFFSHORE. HOWEVER THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD
IN THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE LOW. THE ECMWF TRACKS THE LOW CLOSER
TO THE COAST THAN THE GFS AND BRINGS ITS PRECIPITATION SHIELD ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE GFS KEEP ITS PRECIPITATION
TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. FOLLOWING THE LEAD OF THE WEATHER PREDICTION
CENTER HAVE USED A BLENDED APPROACH. HAVE RUN WITH CHANCE POPS
ACROSS MY FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE
NEAR NORMAL WHICH MEANS WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN DURING THE DAY FOR SOME
AREAS.

THERE IS MUCH GREATER UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AS WE HEAD INTO
THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK...THANKSGIVING DAY AND FRIDAY. THE TIMING
OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES IN BOTH THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS
WILL HAVE BIG IMPACT ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER AND WHERE AND WHEN A
LOW FORMS AND HOW STRONG IT MAY GET. INDICATIONS ARE A LOW SHOULD
FORM SOMEWHERE OFF THE SOUTHEAST TO MID ATLANTIC COAST BY THURSDAY
NIGHT. HAVE RUN WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS/CLIMATOLOGICALLY FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY SINCE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IS SO HIGH.

AS FOR THANKSGIVING DAY...AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE WEATHER
SHOULD BE FAIR AS WE ARE BETWEEN SYSTEMS.

OVERALL GUIDANCE INDICATES TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY COOL AS THE
WEEK PROGRESSES WITH BELOW NORMAL READINGS EXPECTED BY THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT...AND MOVE
OFFSHORE EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. A WEAK DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF A
WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT MIXED PCPN TO THE REGION LATE
TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH THICKENING AND
LOWERING CLOUDS DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE
SKIES WILL CLEAR TONIGHT...WITH THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN
BETWEEN 10-15Z/SAT. THERE COULD BE SOME SPOTTY SNOW SHOWERS AROUND
FROM KALB NORTH AND EAST AFTER 20Z/SAT...AND THESE WERE ADDRESSED
WITH A VCSH FOR KALB/KGFL/KPSF FOR NOW.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SW TO W AT 4-10 KTS EARLY THIS
EVENING..AND THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 5 KTS
OR LESS AFTER 05Z/SAT. EXPECT THE WINDS TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST AT 8-12 KTS LATE TOMORROW MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME GUSTS CLOSE TO 20 KTS AT KALB.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

THERE WILL BE A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER FAR
WESTERN AREAS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED. A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL IMPACT THE REGION...MAINLY FOR
AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...FOR LATE TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW
NIGHT. BASIN AVERAGE LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF PRECIP WILL BE A
QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON AREA
RIVERS AND STREAMS. ALONG WITH A MILDER AIR MASS...A MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAINFALL...WILL
IMPACT THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR SO. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS







000
FXUS61 KOKX 220246
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
946 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES NEARLY OVERHEAD TONIGHT BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE
ON SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT THEN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH SUNDAY AND
LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN STALLS OFFSHORE THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE MAY RIDE ALONG THE FRONT AND
PASS TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY...WITH ANOTHER LOW POSSIBLY TRACKING
EAST FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A LARGE 1035 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES AND WILL CONTINUE MVG ESEWD OFF THE COAST TONIGHT.

SFC WINDS CONT TO DECREASE AND DECOUPLE FROM THE UPPER LVL WINDS. TEMPS
ARE PLUMMETING WHERE SFC WINDS BECOME NEARLY CALM AS STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IS IN PROGRESS.

ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR THE LOCAL AREA.

USED A BLEND OF MET/MAV MOS GUIDANCE TO START...BUT THEN DROPPED
LOWS FROM 5-7 DEGREES ACROSS THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN CT...AND ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND.

THE URBAN HEAT ISLAND EFFECT WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN NYC IN
THE MID TO UPPER 20S. OTHERWISE...LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER
TEENS TO AROUND 20 FOR MOST COASTAL AREAS...AND AS LOW AS THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THESE TEMPS ARE
15-20 AND AS LOW AS 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MOSTLY SUNNY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY SATURDAY AS HIGH PRES CONTINUES
TO DEPART. SW FLOW WILL USHER A MILDER AIR MASS INTO THE REGION
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA...AND IN THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS. THESE
TEMPS...HOWEVER...ARE STILL 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY AND AT NIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. SOME LIGHT...OVERRUNNING
PRECIP WILL DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. BEST FOCUS WILL
BE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ZONES WHERE POPS WILL BE LOW CHANCE...AND
WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE MOST ELSEWHERE. WITH SFC TEMPS BELOW
FREEZING ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF NE NJ...THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY...SOUTHERN CT AND THE PINE BARRENS OF EASTERN LONG
ISLAND...PTYPE COULD BE FREEZING RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES AND
FREEZING RAIN/RAIN FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. NYC/LONG ISLAND SHOULD
STAY AS PLAIN RAIN...WITH SOME FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE FOR THE PINE
BARRENS OF LONG ISLAND.

LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S INLAND
AND IN THE MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS NYC/LONG ISLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EARLY SUNDAY...WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES NORTH OF THE
REGION...WITH UPPER RIDGING QUICKLY BUILDING DURING THE DAY. THIS IS
IN RESPONSE TO DIGGING MID WEST TROUGH.

THE RIDGE GIVES WAY TO SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE THAT TRACKS
NORTHEAST...PASSING JUST TO THE WEST OF THE AREA EARLY MONDAY.
MEANWHILE...MAIN TROUGH AMPLIFIES AND CLOSES OFF ACROSS THE UPPER
MID WEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS CLOSED LOW WEAKENS AND LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEK AS MAIN TROUGH SLOWLY MAKES EASTWARD
PROGRESS. TROUGH AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

AT THE SURFACE...A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH SUNDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE WARM FRONT
MOVES THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AS LOCAL AREA BECOMES WARM SECTORED. THE
DEEP LOW PRESSURE PASSES ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH BY TUESDAY. THIS FRONT SETTLES EAST OF THE AREA MID WEEK AS
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES ALONG IT...LIKELY PASSING JUST
SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK. BY THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE AND FRONT TO
THE WEST APPROACHES. WITH UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVERHEAD LATE
THURSDAY/FRIDAY...SFC LOW PRESSURE MAY INTENSIFY OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY.

AS FOR WEATHER...ANY LINGERING LIGHT RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN ENDS
SUNDAY. TEMPS WARM INTO THE LOWER 50S. WITH SOUTH
WINDS...TEMPERATURES REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD SUNDAY NIGHT FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR...THEN WARM INTO THE 60S MONDAY AS AREA BECOMES WARM
SECTORED.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO GRADUALLY FALL
BACK CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS BY MID TO LATE WEEK.

POPS AND WEATHER WILL DEPEND ON EVENTUAL PLACEMENT OF LOW PRESSURE
MID WEEK AND AGAIN LATE WEEK. KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE FOR
NOW...WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITIES EAST OF NYC. WEATHER TYPE WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND PASSES SOUTH OF
THE AREA SATURDAY.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...WITH A MID LEVEL
DECK MOVING IN LATE SAT AFT/EVE.

WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST AND WILL BE QUITE LIGHT LATE TONIGHT.
SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT WITH G20KT AFTER 14-15Z
SATURDAY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUN THROUGH WED...
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...VFR. BRIEF MVFR CIG POSSIBLE AT KSWF SAT EVE.
.SUN NIGHT-MON...BECOMING MVFR/IFR. POSSIBLY SUB-IFR. RA AND FG
WITH LLWS POSSIBLE.
.MON NIGHT-TUE...VFR.
.WED...MAINLY VFR...ALTHOUGH POSSIBLE RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX MAY
IMPACT THE AREA...ESPECIALLY EAST OF NYC METRO.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY/SCA FOR EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND...THE SOUTH
SHORE INLAND BAYS AND PECONIC AND GARDINERS BAY WAS EXTENDED UNTIL
10 PM FOR WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT.

OTHERWISE...THE SCA FOR THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS FROM FIRE ISLAND
EAST REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM SATURDAY.

TRANQUIL CONDS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING
OVER THE WATERS. THAT HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY...AND THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SCA CONDS LIKELY FOR AT
LEAST THE OCEAN WATERS LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

WESTERLY WINDS SHIFT TOWARD THE SW SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES. SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AHEAD
OF AND THEN BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH A SLIGHT SHIFT FROM S/SE TO S/SW.

THEN WINDS SHIFT AGAIN BACK TO THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THESE WINDS TURN TOWARD THE NW TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE
WATERS MAY TURN THE WINDS TOWARD THE N/NW LATE WEDNESDAY.

WINDS REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. IN FACT GALES ARE
POSSIBLE MONDAY BEHIND THE WARM FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT.

WINDS DO DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BRIEFLY AS THE HIGH BUILDS.

SEAS SHOULD REMAIN ROUGH THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY CONDS THROUGH SATURDAY...AND ONLY LIGHT PRECIP POSSIBLE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FIG/MPS
NEAR TERM...GC
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...GC/FIG/MPS
HYDROLOGY...FIG/MPS








000
FXUS61 KOKX 220246
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
946 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES NEARLY OVERHEAD TONIGHT BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE
ON SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT THEN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH SUNDAY AND
LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN STALLS OFFSHORE THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE MAY RIDE ALONG THE FRONT AND
PASS TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY...WITH ANOTHER LOW POSSIBLY TRACKING
EAST FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A LARGE 1035 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES AND WILL CONTINUE MVG ESEWD OFF THE COAST TONIGHT.

SFC WINDS CONT TO DECREASE AND DECOUPLE FROM THE UPPER LVL WINDS. TEMPS
ARE PLUMMETING WHERE SFC WINDS BECOME NEARLY CALM AS STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IS IN PROGRESS.

ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR THE LOCAL AREA.

USED A BLEND OF MET/MAV MOS GUIDANCE TO START...BUT THEN DROPPED
LOWS FROM 5-7 DEGREES ACROSS THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN CT...AND ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND.

THE URBAN HEAT ISLAND EFFECT WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN NYC IN
THE MID TO UPPER 20S. OTHERWISE...LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER
TEENS TO AROUND 20 FOR MOST COASTAL AREAS...AND AS LOW AS THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THESE TEMPS ARE
15-20 AND AS LOW AS 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MOSTLY SUNNY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY SATURDAY AS HIGH PRES CONTINUES
TO DEPART. SW FLOW WILL USHER A MILDER AIR MASS INTO THE REGION
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA...AND IN THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS. THESE
TEMPS...HOWEVER...ARE STILL 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY AND AT NIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. SOME LIGHT...OVERRUNNING
PRECIP WILL DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. BEST FOCUS WILL
BE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ZONES WHERE POPS WILL BE LOW CHANCE...AND
WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE MOST ELSEWHERE. WITH SFC TEMPS BELOW
FREEZING ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF NE NJ...THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY...SOUTHERN CT AND THE PINE BARRENS OF EASTERN LONG
ISLAND...PTYPE COULD BE FREEZING RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES AND
FREEZING RAIN/RAIN FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. NYC/LONG ISLAND SHOULD
STAY AS PLAIN RAIN...WITH SOME FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE FOR THE PINE
BARRENS OF LONG ISLAND.

LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S INLAND
AND IN THE MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS NYC/LONG ISLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EARLY SUNDAY...WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES NORTH OF THE
REGION...WITH UPPER RIDGING QUICKLY BUILDING DURING THE DAY. THIS IS
IN RESPONSE TO DIGGING MID WEST TROUGH.

THE RIDGE GIVES WAY TO SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE THAT TRACKS
NORTHEAST...PASSING JUST TO THE WEST OF THE AREA EARLY MONDAY.
MEANWHILE...MAIN TROUGH AMPLIFIES AND CLOSES OFF ACROSS THE UPPER
MID WEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS CLOSED LOW WEAKENS AND LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEK AS MAIN TROUGH SLOWLY MAKES EASTWARD
PROGRESS. TROUGH AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

AT THE SURFACE...A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH SUNDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE WARM FRONT
MOVES THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AS LOCAL AREA BECOMES WARM SECTORED. THE
DEEP LOW PRESSURE PASSES ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH BY TUESDAY. THIS FRONT SETTLES EAST OF THE AREA MID WEEK AS
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES ALONG IT...LIKELY PASSING JUST
SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK. BY THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE AND FRONT TO
THE WEST APPROACHES. WITH UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVERHEAD LATE
THURSDAY/FRIDAY...SFC LOW PRESSURE MAY INTENSIFY OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY.

AS FOR WEATHER...ANY LINGERING LIGHT RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN ENDS
SUNDAY. TEMPS WARM INTO THE LOWER 50S. WITH SOUTH
WINDS...TEMPERATURES REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD SUNDAY NIGHT FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR...THEN WARM INTO THE 60S MONDAY AS AREA BECOMES WARM
SECTORED.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO GRADUALLY FALL
BACK CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS BY MID TO LATE WEEK.

POPS AND WEATHER WILL DEPEND ON EVENTUAL PLACEMENT OF LOW PRESSURE
MID WEEK AND AGAIN LATE WEEK. KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE FOR
NOW...WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITIES EAST OF NYC. WEATHER TYPE WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND PASSES SOUTH OF
THE AREA SATURDAY.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...WITH A MID LEVEL
DECK MOVING IN LATE SAT AFT/EVE.

WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST AND WILL BE QUITE LIGHT LATE TONIGHT.
SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT WITH G20KT AFTER 14-15Z
SATURDAY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUN THROUGH WED...
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...VFR. BRIEF MVFR CIG POSSIBLE AT KSWF SAT EVE.
.SUN NIGHT-MON...BECOMING MVFR/IFR. POSSIBLY SUB-IFR. RA AND FG
WITH LLWS POSSIBLE.
.MON NIGHT-TUE...VFR.
.WED...MAINLY VFR...ALTHOUGH POSSIBLE RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX MAY
IMPACT THE AREA...ESPECIALLY EAST OF NYC METRO.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY/SCA FOR EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND...THE SOUTH
SHORE INLAND BAYS AND PECONIC AND GARDINERS BAY WAS EXTENDED UNTIL
10 PM FOR WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT.

OTHERWISE...THE SCA FOR THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS FROM FIRE ISLAND
EAST REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM SATURDAY.

TRANQUIL CONDS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING
OVER THE WATERS. THAT HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY...AND THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SCA CONDS LIKELY FOR AT
LEAST THE OCEAN WATERS LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

WESTERLY WINDS SHIFT TOWARD THE SW SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES. SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AHEAD
OF AND THEN BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH A SLIGHT SHIFT FROM S/SE TO S/SW.

THEN WINDS SHIFT AGAIN BACK TO THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THESE WINDS TURN TOWARD THE NW TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE
WATERS MAY TURN THE WINDS TOWARD THE N/NW LATE WEDNESDAY.

WINDS REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. IN FACT GALES ARE
POSSIBLE MONDAY BEHIND THE WARM FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT.

WINDS DO DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BRIEFLY AS THE HIGH BUILDS.

SEAS SHOULD REMAIN ROUGH THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY CONDS THROUGH SATURDAY...AND ONLY LIGHT PRECIP POSSIBLE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FIG/MPS
NEAR TERM...GC
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...GC/FIG/MPS
HYDROLOGY...FIG/MPS









000
FXUS61 KBOX 220235
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
935 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A DRY BUT VERY COLD NIGHT...TEMPERATURES MODERATE SOME
SATURDAY ON GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A
SIGNIFICANT WARM UP SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY...BUT WITH A
PERIOD OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. QUIET FOR TUESDAY BUT
CONDITIONS MAY CHANGE BY WEDNESDAY WITH THE THREAT OF A STORM
SYSTEM. TURNING COLDER INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
930 PM UPDATE...
HIGH PRES IN CONTROL BRINGING CLEAR AND DIMINISHING WIND. SOME LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SPILLING INTO THE BERKSHIRES MAY BRING A FEW CLOUDS
TO W MA THROUGH 06Z THEN LOW LEVEL DRYING TAKES PLACE. EXPECT A
NICE SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING ACROSS THE INTERIOR AS WINDS
CONTINUE TO DECOUPLE RESULTING IN LOWS INTO THE TEENS...WITH
SINGLE DIGITS POSSIBLE ACROSS NW MA AND SW NH...WELL BELOW-NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MILDEST READINGS IN THE 20S WILL BE IN
BOS...OUTER CAPE/ISLANDS AND AREAS ADJACENT TO NARRAGANSETT BAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC ALLOWING FOR STRONG MID
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION TO DEVELOP. THE RESPONSE WILL BE AN INCREASE
IN MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS AS THE DAY WEARS ON...BUT IT WILL
REMAIN DRY GIVEN THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

DESPITE THE WARM ADVECTION ALOFT...IT WILL TAKE TIME FOR THAT TO BE
COMPLETELY REALIZED AT THE SURFACE. WHILE IT WILL BE MILDER THAN
TODAY...HIGH TEMPS WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S WITH SOME MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S ON THE CAPE
AND ISLANDS. HOWEVER...EXPECTING SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30
MPH TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND PERHAPS A BIT STRONGER ALONG
THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS WILL STILL MAKE IT FEEL
RATHER CHILLY OUTSIDE FOR NOVEMBER STANDARDS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...

A MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SAT NIGHT.
THERE STILL SHOULD BE ENOUGH FORCING TO BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SCATTERED LIGHT PRECIPITATION. WHILE IT CERTAINLY WILL BE TOO
WARM ALOFT FOR ANY SNOW...THE BIGGEST QUESTION IS WILL IT BE COLD
ENOUGH AT THE SURFACE FOR SOME POCKETS OF SPOTTY LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN ACROSS THE INTERIOR. ITS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE AND WILL NEED TO
BE WATCHED...BUT ITS NOT AN IDEAL SETUP. THERE IS A LOT OF WIND
OFF THE DECK AND PROBABLY ENOUGH TO PREVENT MOST AREAS FROM
DECOUPLING. GIVEN WERE +4C AT 850 MB SOME OF THIS MILDER AIR WILL
BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN. THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL LIGHT ICING
THREAT...BUT STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED POCKETS IN THE
DEEPER VALLEY LOCATIONS. LOW TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE UPPER 20S
TO MIDDLE 30S DURING THE EVENING...BUT SHOULD RISE SOME OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - TURNING WARMER AND WET MONDAY
 - A POSSIBLE MIDWEEK STORM...ESPECIALLY FOR SE NEW ENGLAND
 - LOOKING COLDER INTO THANKSGIVING

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL CONSENSUS...

TRENDING +AO/NAO WITH NEAR-NEUTRAL PNA SUGGESTS A MORE PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN AND MILD. NO SURPRISE TO SEE A LACK OF DEEP CLOSED-LOW H5
DISTURBANCES...THOUGH AN ACTIVE PATTERN WITH ABUNDANCE OF PACIFIC-
ORIGIN WAVES MAINTAINING TROUGHING BETWEEN SECTORS OF ABOVE-AVERAGE
OCEAN TEMPERATURES OVER THE NE-PACIFIC AND NW-ATLANTIC.

SOME OF THOSE WAVES ARE WELL OUT IN THE PACIFIC AND HAVE NOT EVEN
BEEN SAMPLED. THE WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WINTER-STORM POTENTIAL
FOR THE MIDWEEK / THANKSGIVING PERIOD IS JUST S OF THE FURTHEST E
ALEUTAIN ISLANDS OF ALASKA. NOTING THIS...HAVE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE
THROUGH EARLY-NEXT WEEK WITH THE FORECAST...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE FOR A
POTENTIAL MIDWEEK STORM. WILL HIT UP THE DETAILS BELOW.

SO FOR SUNDAY...

CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK TROUGH DISTURBANCE.
DISSIPATING BENEATH A MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE / SUBSIDENCE. BENEATH
THE WARM-SECTOR AND RETURN S-FLOW ROUND THE HIGH PUSHING OFF INTO
THE ATLANTIC...H925 TEMPERATURES NEARLY +10C...MAY SEE HIGHS WARM
WELL INTO THE 50S WITH ANY SUNSHINE.

AS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...

WARM-FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING BROADSCALE LIFT AHEAD OF A DEEPENING LOW
ACROSS THE C-CONUS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION BECOMES THE FOCUS
FOR RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. NON-DIURNAL WARMING TREND OVERNIGHT. ALL-
RAIN EVENT. MAIN CONCERNS ARE WITH BOTH WINDS AND RAIN.

WITH WINDS: STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET CENTERED AROUND MONDAY MORNING WITH
WINDS 1-2 KFT AGL MODEL-CONSENSUS AVERAGING AROUND 50 MPH /45 KTS/.
SUGGESTED BOUNDARY-LAYER DECOUPLING BENEATH MUCH WARMER AIR BETWEEN
H925-85. BUT IF 2M TEMPERATURES ARE WARMER AS FORECAST FOR SUNDAY
COULD BE WARMER SUNDAY NIGHT AIDING IN LOW-LEVEL MIXING. ALSO NEED
TO CONSIDER ANY HEAVY RAIN WHICH COULD ALSO AID WITH DRAGGING FASTER
MOMENTUM TO THE SURFACE. OVERALL: MAIN CONCERN ACROSS SE NEW ENGLAND
AND HIGH TERRAIN ABOVE 1 KFT. WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE NECESSARY. CIPS
ANALOG GUIDANCE HAS JUST ABOVE 50-PERCENT FOR WINDS > 35 MPH.

WITH RAIN: BROADSCALE ASCENT OF THE WARM-CONVEYER-BELT WITH PWATS UP
TO 1.5-INCHES AND ANOMALOUS HIGH-THETAE AIR. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
NOSE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET TO THE PARENT WARM-FRONT. EXPECT A BROAD
NW-SE BAND OF RAIN WITH PERHAPS AN EMBEDDED LINE OF HEAVIER RAIN. IT
MOVES THROUGH NOTABLY QUICK. MODEL-CONSENSUS AVERAGE RAIN AMOUNTS
ARE AROUND 0.50 - 0.75 INCHES. AM NOT EXPECTING ANY FLOOD ISSUES.

INTO MONDAY...

RAINS FOR THE MORNING...IMPROVING AFTERNOON. IF WE CLEAR AS H925
TEMPERATURES WARM TO +14C THEN WE COULD POSSIBLY SEE HIGHS INTO THE
MID- TO UPPER-60S /+18C/ POSSIBLY TO NEAR 70. MODEL-CONSENSUS H925
WINDS AVERAGE AROUND 45 MPH /40 KTS/ AND WITH WARMER CONDITIONS
COULD SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR MIXING OUT TO H9 AND MOMENTUM MIX-DOWN.
WILL HINT AT THIS IN THE FORECAST...BUT MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

WILL GO WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS...BUT THE MAIN PUMP OF MOISTURE
SHOULD BE WELL OFFSHORE. OTHERWISE THE MAIN COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO
THE DEEPENING LOW LIFTING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION SWEEPS
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. EXPECTING DRY AND COOLER WEATHER FOR TUESDAY...
PERHAPS CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...

JUST TOO EARLY TO SAY. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS VARY
CONSIDERABLY WITH SURFACE LOW CENTERS AROUND THE ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH
KEY UPON A LOW SE OF THE 40N / 70W BENCHMARK AROUND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HAVE CONCERNS FOR SE NEW ENGLAND WHICH COULD SEE THE GREATEST IMPACT
WHILE NOTING A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER S-CANADA /WITH THE CENTER
OVER THE C-CONUS/. THE GFS-UPGRADED /T1534/ IS A FAR OUTLIER AND IS
NOT CONSIDERED WITH THIS FORECAST.

EVALUATING SYNOPTICS...THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A COASTAL STORM
BUT MORE OF A WAVE LOW ALONG THE OFFSHORE STALLED FRONT. AS BEEN THE
CASE THIS YEAR...COLD AIR HAS BEEN PLUNGING INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS
BUT ITS TRUE BITE REMAINS MAINLY N/W OF OUR REGION. DO HAVE SOME
CONFIDENCE THAT THE WAVE LOW WILL HUG CLOSER TO THE COAST. THEN IT
COMES TO BREAKING DOWN TIMING / ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS / THERMAL FIELDS
WHICH RIGHT NOW ARE AGAIN TOO EARLY TO DIAGNOSE. THERE HAS BEEN A
CONSISTENT SIGNAL. STORM BEARS WATCHING.

EXPECTING A RETURN OF ARCTIC AIR BEHIND WHATEVER MIDWEEK SYSTEM THAT
MAY EMERGE. DAY 6-8 CIPS ANALOGS HAVE HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW-
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE SE-CONUS INTO THE OHIO-RIVER VALLEY
CENTERED AROUND THE LATE-THANKSGIVING WEEK PERIOD. EC ENSEMBLES AT
H85 HAVE THE FREEZING MARK PLUNGING TO NEARLY THE GULF COAST...WITH
-10C AIR INTO NEW ENGLAND BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

0Z UPDATE...

VFR OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY. LIGHTS WINDS ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH
BREEZY W/NW FLOW ALONG THE SHORES WILL ENHANCE SATURDAY OUT OF THE
SW WITH LIKELY GUSTS 20-30 KTS BY AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY UP TO 35
KTS AT TIMES /ESPECIALLY OVER THE CAPE AND ISLANDS/.

LOW-END VFR SATURDAY NIGHT. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE WITH
ANY -SHRA. ISOLATED POCKETS OF -FZRA POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
IF ANY ICING IT IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIGHT. WINDS REMAINING AN
ISSUE WITH SW-GUSTS 20-30 KTS...POSSIBLY UP TO 35 KTS...MAINLY
ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN OF E/SE NEW ENGLAND.

KBOS TERMINAL...WILL HOLD VFR AND KEEP SW-WINDS AROUND 240 BRISK
THROUGHOUT BEGINNING SATURDAY. PERHAPS ISSUES ON 15/33. DO NOT
ANTICIPATE ANY -FZRA AT THE TERMINAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TERMINAL...IF ANY THREAT OF -FZRA ANTICIPATING IMPACTS AROUND
0-6Z SUNDAY /7 PM SATURDAY TO 1 AM SUNDAY/. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

INITIAL -SHRA EARLY SUNDAY WITH LOW-END VFR FOLLOWED BY SOME BRIEF
IMPROVEMENT. WINDS TURNING S.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CONDITIONS DETERIORATE MVFR-LIFR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
WITH +RA AND STRONG S-WINDS WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS POSSIBLE...
OTHERWISE LLWS IMPACTS WITH 50 KT S-WINDS 2 KFT AGL. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE BY MIDDAY...BUT COULD SEE CONTINUED SW-WINDS AROUND 25 KTS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

W-FLOW WITH MAINLY VFR.

WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

AN OFFSHORE STORM SYSTEM COULD BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ESPECIALLY
TO THE SE-TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

7 PM UPDATE...

WILL ALLOW THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO DROP ON BOSTON HARBOR AND
NARRAGANSETT BAY...BUT PREVAIL ALL OTHER WATERS TOWARDS SATURDAY
MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION ALLOWING WINDS TO
GRADUALLY RELAX OUT OF THE W/NW.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES E ALLOWING FOR A FAST-FLOWING RETURN SW-FLOW
OF AIR OVER THE WATERS. COLDER AIR OVER WATER WATERS...EXPECT SW-
GUSTS POSSIBLY EXCEEDING GALE FORCE LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT.

GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE THREAT OF GUSTS OVER THE PERIOD OF
35 KTS. SEAS LIKELY BUILDING 6 TO 9 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE S/SE-WATERS. WILL ALLOW THE OVERNIGHT SHIFT TO
EVALUATE AS TO WHETHER TO GO WITH GALE WARNINGS OR HIGH-END
SMALL-CRAFT ADVISORIES.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CONDITIONS IMPROVING AS SW-WINDS TURN S AND RELAX. WILL SEE WAVE
ACTION DISSIPATE BELOW SMALL-CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CONDITIONS DETERIORATE INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH RAIN OVER THE WATERS
AND EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS. VISIBILITY IMPACTS POSSIBLE. WINDS
INCREASING OUT OF THE S. GUSTS EXCEEDING GALE FORCE APPEAR LIKELY.
WAVES SUBSEQUENTLY INCREASING TO 10 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WINDS TURNING SW REMAINING BLUSTERY WITH GUSTS EXCEEDING 25 KTS.
WAVES MAINTAINED WITH HEIGHTS OF 8 TO 10 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS.

WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

AN OFFSHORE STORM SYSTEM COULD BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE
WATERS YET DETAILS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
     FOR ANZ231>235-237-250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ232>235-
     237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ231-251-
     255-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-254.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...FRANK/SIPPRELL
MARINE...FRANK/SIPPRELL



000
FXUS61 KBOX 220235
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
935 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A DRY BUT VERY COLD NIGHT...TEMPERATURES MODERATE SOME
SATURDAY ON GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A
SIGNIFICANT WARM UP SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY...BUT WITH A
PERIOD OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. QUIET FOR TUESDAY BUT
CONDITIONS MAY CHANGE BY WEDNESDAY WITH THE THREAT OF A STORM
SYSTEM. TURNING COLDER INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
930 PM UPDATE...
HIGH PRES IN CONTROL BRINGING CLEAR AND DIMINISHING WIND. SOME LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SPILLING INTO THE BERKSHIRES MAY BRING A FEW CLOUDS
TO W MA THROUGH 06Z THEN LOW LEVEL DRYING TAKES PLACE. EXPECT A
NICE SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING ACROSS THE INTERIOR AS WINDS
CONTINUE TO DECOUPLE RESULTING IN LOWS INTO THE TEENS...WITH
SINGLE DIGITS POSSIBLE ACROSS NW MA AND SW NH...WELL BELOW-NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MILDEST READINGS IN THE 20S WILL BE IN
BOS...OUTER CAPE/ISLANDS AND AREAS ADJACENT TO NARRAGANSETT BAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC ALLOWING FOR STRONG MID
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION TO DEVELOP. THE RESPONSE WILL BE AN INCREASE
IN MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS AS THE DAY WEARS ON...BUT IT WILL
REMAIN DRY GIVEN THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

DESPITE THE WARM ADVECTION ALOFT...IT WILL TAKE TIME FOR THAT TO BE
COMPLETELY REALIZED AT THE SURFACE. WHILE IT WILL BE MILDER THAN
TODAY...HIGH TEMPS WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S WITH SOME MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S ON THE CAPE
AND ISLANDS. HOWEVER...EXPECTING SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30
MPH TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND PERHAPS A BIT STRONGER ALONG
THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS WILL STILL MAKE IT FEEL
RATHER CHILLY OUTSIDE FOR NOVEMBER STANDARDS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...

A MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SAT NIGHT.
THERE STILL SHOULD BE ENOUGH FORCING TO BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SCATTERED LIGHT PRECIPITATION. WHILE IT CERTAINLY WILL BE TOO
WARM ALOFT FOR ANY SNOW...THE BIGGEST QUESTION IS WILL IT BE COLD
ENOUGH AT THE SURFACE FOR SOME POCKETS OF SPOTTY LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN ACROSS THE INTERIOR. ITS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE AND WILL NEED TO
BE WATCHED...BUT ITS NOT AN IDEAL SETUP. THERE IS A LOT OF WIND
OFF THE DECK AND PROBABLY ENOUGH TO PREVENT MOST AREAS FROM
DECOUPLING. GIVEN WERE +4C AT 850 MB SOME OF THIS MILDER AIR WILL
BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN. THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL LIGHT ICING
THREAT...BUT STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED POCKETS IN THE
DEEPER VALLEY LOCATIONS. LOW TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE UPPER 20S
TO MIDDLE 30S DURING THE EVENING...BUT SHOULD RISE SOME OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - TURNING WARMER AND WET MONDAY
 - A POSSIBLE MIDWEEK STORM...ESPECIALLY FOR SE NEW ENGLAND
 - LOOKING COLDER INTO THANKSGIVING

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL CONSENSUS...

TRENDING +AO/NAO WITH NEAR-NEUTRAL PNA SUGGESTS A MORE PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN AND MILD. NO SURPRISE TO SEE A LACK OF DEEP CLOSED-LOW H5
DISTURBANCES...THOUGH AN ACTIVE PATTERN WITH ABUNDANCE OF PACIFIC-
ORIGIN WAVES MAINTAINING TROUGHING BETWEEN SECTORS OF ABOVE-AVERAGE
OCEAN TEMPERATURES OVER THE NE-PACIFIC AND NW-ATLANTIC.

SOME OF THOSE WAVES ARE WELL OUT IN THE PACIFIC AND HAVE NOT EVEN
BEEN SAMPLED. THE WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WINTER-STORM POTENTIAL
FOR THE MIDWEEK / THANKSGIVING PERIOD IS JUST S OF THE FURTHEST E
ALEUTAIN ISLANDS OF ALASKA. NOTING THIS...HAVE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE
THROUGH EARLY-NEXT WEEK WITH THE FORECAST...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE FOR A
POTENTIAL MIDWEEK STORM. WILL HIT UP THE DETAILS BELOW.

SO FOR SUNDAY...

CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK TROUGH DISTURBANCE.
DISSIPATING BENEATH A MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE / SUBSIDENCE. BENEATH
THE WARM-SECTOR AND RETURN S-FLOW ROUND THE HIGH PUSHING OFF INTO
THE ATLANTIC...H925 TEMPERATURES NEARLY +10C...MAY SEE HIGHS WARM
WELL INTO THE 50S WITH ANY SUNSHINE.

AS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...

WARM-FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING BROADSCALE LIFT AHEAD OF A DEEPENING LOW
ACROSS THE C-CONUS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION BECOMES THE FOCUS
FOR RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. NON-DIURNAL WARMING TREND OVERNIGHT. ALL-
RAIN EVENT. MAIN CONCERNS ARE WITH BOTH WINDS AND RAIN.

WITH WINDS: STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET CENTERED AROUND MONDAY MORNING WITH
WINDS 1-2 KFT AGL MODEL-CONSENSUS AVERAGING AROUND 50 MPH /45 KTS/.
SUGGESTED BOUNDARY-LAYER DECOUPLING BENEATH MUCH WARMER AIR BETWEEN
H925-85. BUT IF 2M TEMPERATURES ARE WARMER AS FORECAST FOR SUNDAY
COULD BE WARMER SUNDAY NIGHT AIDING IN LOW-LEVEL MIXING. ALSO NEED
TO CONSIDER ANY HEAVY RAIN WHICH COULD ALSO AID WITH DRAGGING FASTER
MOMENTUM TO THE SURFACE. OVERALL: MAIN CONCERN ACROSS SE NEW ENGLAND
AND HIGH TERRAIN ABOVE 1 KFT. WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE NECESSARY. CIPS
ANALOG GUIDANCE HAS JUST ABOVE 50-PERCENT FOR WINDS > 35 MPH.

WITH RAIN: BROADSCALE ASCENT OF THE WARM-CONVEYER-BELT WITH PWATS UP
TO 1.5-INCHES AND ANOMALOUS HIGH-THETAE AIR. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
NOSE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET TO THE PARENT WARM-FRONT. EXPECT A BROAD
NW-SE BAND OF RAIN WITH PERHAPS AN EMBEDDED LINE OF HEAVIER RAIN. IT
MOVES THROUGH NOTABLY QUICK. MODEL-CONSENSUS AVERAGE RAIN AMOUNTS
ARE AROUND 0.50 - 0.75 INCHES. AM NOT EXPECTING ANY FLOOD ISSUES.

INTO MONDAY...

RAINS FOR THE MORNING...IMPROVING AFTERNOON. IF WE CLEAR AS H925
TEMPERATURES WARM TO +14C THEN WE COULD POSSIBLY SEE HIGHS INTO THE
MID- TO UPPER-60S /+18C/ POSSIBLY TO NEAR 70. MODEL-CONSENSUS H925
WINDS AVERAGE AROUND 45 MPH /40 KTS/ AND WITH WARMER CONDITIONS
COULD SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR MIXING OUT TO H9 AND MOMENTUM MIX-DOWN.
WILL HINT AT THIS IN THE FORECAST...BUT MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

WILL GO WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS...BUT THE MAIN PUMP OF MOISTURE
SHOULD BE WELL OFFSHORE. OTHERWISE THE MAIN COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO
THE DEEPENING LOW LIFTING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION SWEEPS
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. EXPECTING DRY AND COOLER WEATHER FOR TUESDAY...
PERHAPS CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...

JUST TOO EARLY TO SAY. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS VARY
CONSIDERABLY WITH SURFACE LOW CENTERS AROUND THE ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH
KEY UPON A LOW SE OF THE 40N / 70W BENCHMARK AROUND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HAVE CONCERNS FOR SE NEW ENGLAND WHICH COULD SEE THE GREATEST IMPACT
WHILE NOTING A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER S-CANADA /WITH THE CENTER
OVER THE C-CONUS/. THE GFS-UPGRADED /T1534/ IS A FAR OUTLIER AND IS
NOT CONSIDERED WITH THIS FORECAST.

EVALUATING SYNOPTICS...THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A COASTAL STORM
BUT MORE OF A WAVE LOW ALONG THE OFFSHORE STALLED FRONT. AS BEEN THE
CASE THIS YEAR...COLD AIR HAS BEEN PLUNGING INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS
BUT ITS TRUE BITE REMAINS MAINLY N/W OF OUR REGION. DO HAVE SOME
CONFIDENCE THAT THE WAVE LOW WILL HUG CLOSER TO THE COAST. THEN IT
COMES TO BREAKING DOWN TIMING / ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS / THERMAL FIELDS
WHICH RIGHT NOW ARE AGAIN TOO EARLY TO DIAGNOSE. THERE HAS BEEN A
CONSISTENT SIGNAL. STORM BEARS WATCHING.

EXPECTING A RETURN OF ARCTIC AIR BEHIND WHATEVER MIDWEEK SYSTEM THAT
MAY EMERGE. DAY 6-8 CIPS ANALOGS HAVE HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW-
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE SE-CONUS INTO THE OHIO-RIVER VALLEY
CENTERED AROUND THE LATE-THANKSGIVING WEEK PERIOD. EC ENSEMBLES AT
H85 HAVE THE FREEZING MARK PLUNGING TO NEARLY THE GULF COAST...WITH
-10C AIR INTO NEW ENGLAND BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

0Z UPDATE...

VFR OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY. LIGHTS WINDS ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH
BREEZY W/NW FLOW ALONG THE SHORES WILL ENHANCE SATURDAY OUT OF THE
SW WITH LIKELY GUSTS 20-30 KTS BY AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY UP TO 35
KTS AT TIMES /ESPECIALLY OVER THE CAPE AND ISLANDS/.

LOW-END VFR SATURDAY NIGHT. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE WITH
ANY -SHRA. ISOLATED POCKETS OF -FZRA POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
IF ANY ICING IT IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIGHT. WINDS REMAINING AN
ISSUE WITH SW-GUSTS 20-30 KTS...POSSIBLY UP TO 35 KTS...MAINLY
ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN OF E/SE NEW ENGLAND.

KBOS TERMINAL...WILL HOLD VFR AND KEEP SW-WINDS AROUND 240 BRISK
THROUGHOUT BEGINNING SATURDAY. PERHAPS ISSUES ON 15/33. DO NOT
ANTICIPATE ANY -FZRA AT THE TERMINAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TERMINAL...IF ANY THREAT OF -FZRA ANTICIPATING IMPACTS AROUND
0-6Z SUNDAY /7 PM SATURDAY TO 1 AM SUNDAY/. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

INITIAL -SHRA EARLY SUNDAY WITH LOW-END VFR FOLLOWED BY SOME BRIEF
IMPROVEMENT. WINDS TURNING S.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CONDITIONS DETERIORATE MVFR-LIFR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
WITH +RA AND STRONG S-WINDS WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS POSSIBLE...
OTHERWISE LLWS IMPACTS WITH 50 KT S-WINDS 2 KFT AGL. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE BY MIDDAY...BUT COULD SEE CONTINUED SW-WINDS AROUND 25 KTS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

W-FLOW WITH MAINLY VFR.

WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

AN OFFSHORE STORM SYSTEM COULD BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ESPECIALLY
TO THE SE-TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

7 PM UPDATE...

WILL ALLOW THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO DROP ON BOSTON HARBOR AND
NARRAGANSETT BAY...BUT PREVAIL ALL OTHER WATERS TOWARDS SATURDAY
MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION ALLOWING WINDS TO
GRADUALLY RELAX OUT OF THE W/NW.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES E ALLOWING FOR A FAST-FLOWING RETURN SW-FLOW
OF AIR OVER THE WATERS. COLDER AIR OVER WATER WATERS...EXPECT SW-
GUSTS POSSIBLY EXCEEDING GALE FORCE LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT.

GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE THREAT OF GUSTS OVER THE PERIOD OF
35 KTS. SEAS LIKELY BUILDING 6 TO 9 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE S/SE-WATERS. WILL ALLOW THE OVERNIGHT SHIFT TO
EVALUATE AS TO WHETHER TO GO WITH GALE WARNINGS OR HIGH-END
SMALL-CRAFT ADVISORIES.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CONDITIONS IMPROVING AS SW-WINDS TURN S AND RELAX. WILL SEE WAVE
ACTION DISSIPATE BELOW SMALL-CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CONDITIONS DETERIORATE INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH RAIN OVER THE WATERS
AND EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS. VISIBILITY IMPACTS POSSIBLE. WINDS
INCREASING OUT OF THE S. GUSTS EXCEEDING GALE FORCE APPEAR LIKELY.
WAVES SUBSEQUENTLY INCREASING TO 10 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WINDS TURNING SW REMAINING BLUSTERY WITH GUSTS EXCEEDING 25 KTS.
WAVES MAINTAINED WITH HEIGHTS OF 8 TO 10 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS.

WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

AN OFFSHORE STORM SYSTEM COULD BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE
WATERS YET DETAILS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
     FOR ANZ231>235-237-250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ232>235-
     237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ231-251-
     255-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-254.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...FRANK/SIPPRELL
MARINE...FRANK/SIPPRELL



000
FXUS61 KBOX 220235
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
935 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A DRY BUT VERY COLD NIGHT...TEMPERATURES MODERATE SOME
SATURDAY ON GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A
SIGNIFICANT WARM UP SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY...BUT WITH A
PERIOD OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. QUIET FOR TUESDAY BUT
CONDITIONS MAY CHANGE BY WEDNESDAY WITH THE THREAT OF A STORM
SYSTEM. TURNING COLDER INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
930 PM UPDATE...
HIGH PRES IN CONTROL BRINGING CLEAR AND DIMINISHING WIND. SOME LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SPILLING INTO THE BERKSHIRES MAY BRING A FEW CLOUDS
TO W MA THROUGH 06Z THEN LOW LEVEL DRYING TAKES PLACE. EXPECT A
NICE SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING ACROSS THE INTERIOR AS WINDS
CONTINUE TO DECOUPLE RESULTING IN LOWS INTO THE TEENS...WITH
SINGLE DIGITS POSSIBLE ACROSS NW MA AND SW NH...WELL BELOW-NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MILDEST READINGS IN THE 20S WILL BE IN
BOS...OUTER CAPE/ISLANDS AND AREAS ADJACENT TO NARRAGANSETT BAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC ALLOWING FOR STRONG MID
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION TO DEVELOP. THE RESPONSE WILL BE AN INCREASE
IN MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS AS THE DAY WEARS ON...BUT IT WILL
REMAIN DRY GIVEN THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

DESPITE THE WARM ADVECTION ALOFT...IT WILL TAKE TIME FOR THAT TO BE
COMPLETELY REALIZED AT THE SURFACE. WHILE IT WILL BE MILDER THAN
TODAY...HIGH TEMPS WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S WITH SOME MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S ON THE CAPE
AND ISLANDS. HOWEVER...EXPECTING SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30
MPH TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND PERHAPS A BIT STRONGER ALONG
THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS WILL STILL MAKE IT FEEL
RATHER CHILLY OUTSIDE FOR NOVEMBER STANDARDS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...

A MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SAT NIGHT.
THERE STILL SHOULD BE ENOUGH FORCING TO BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SCATTERED LIGHT PRECIPITATION. WHILE IT CERTAINLY WILL BE TOO
WARM ALOFT FOR ANY SNOW...THE BIGGEST QUESTION IS WILL IT BE COLD
ENOUGH AT THE SURFACE FOR SOME POCKETS OF SPOTTY LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN ACROSS THE INTERIOR. ITS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE AND WILL NEED TO
BE WATCHED...BUT ITS NOT AN IDEAL SETUP. THERE IS A LOT OF WIND
OFF THE DECK AND PROBABLY ENOUGH TO PREVENT MOST AREAS FROM
DECOUPLING. GIVEN WERE +4C AT 850 MB SOME OF THIS MILDER AIR WILL
BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN. THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL LIGHT ICING
THREAT...BUT STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED POCKETS IN THE
DEEPER VALLEY LOCATIONS. LOW TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE UPPER 20S
TO MIDDLE 30S DURING THE EVENING...BUT SHOULD RISE SOME OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - TURNING WARMER AND WET MONDAY
 - A POSSIBLE MIDWEEK STORM...ESPECIALLY FOR SE NEW ENGLAND
 - LOOKING COLDER INTO THANKSGIVING

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL CONSENSUS...

TRENDING +AO/NAO WITH NEAR-NEUTRAL PNA SUGGESTS A MORE PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN AND MILD. NO SURPRISE TO SEE A LACK OF DEEP CLOSED-LOW H5
DISTURBANCES...THOUGH AN ACTIVE PATTERN WITH ABUNDANCE OF PACIFIC-
ORIGIN WAVES MAINTAINING TROUGHING BETWEEN SECTORS OF ABOVE-AVERAGE
OCEAN TEMPERATURES OVER THE NE-PACIFIC AND NW-ATLANTIC.

SOME OF THOSE WAVES ARE WELL OUT IN THE PACIFIC AND HAVE NOT EVEN
BEEN SAMPLED. THE WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WINTER-STORM POTENTIAL
FOR THE MIDWEEK / THANKSGIVING PERIOD IS JUST S OF THE FURTHEST E
ALEUTAIN ISLANDS OF ALASKA. NOTING THIS...HAVE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE
THROUGH EARLY-NEXT WEEK WITH THE FORECAST...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE FOR A
POTENTIAL MIDWEEK STORM. WILL HIT UP THE DETAILS BELOW.

SO FOR SUNDAY...

CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK TROUGH DISTURBANCE.
DISSIPATING BENEATH A MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE / SUBSIDENCE. BENEATH
THE WARM-SECTOR AND RETURN S-FLOW ROUND THE HIGH PUSHING OFF INTO
THE ATLANTIC...H925 TEMPERATURES NEARLY +10C...MAY SEE HIGHS WARM
WELL INTO THE 50S WITH ANY SUNSHINE.

AS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...

WARM-FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING BROADSCALE LIFT AHEAD OF A DEEPENING LOW
ACROSS THE C-CONUS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION BECOMES THE FOCUS
FOR RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. NON-DIURNAL WARMING TREND OVERNIGHT. ALL-
RAIN EVENT. MAIN CONCERNS ARE WITH BOTH WINDS AND RAIN.

WITH WINDS: STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET CENTERED AROUND MONDAY MORNING WITH
WINDS 1-2 KFT AGL MODEL-CONSENSUS AVERAGING AROUND 50 MPH /45 KTS/.
SUGGESTED BOUNDARY-LAYER DECOUPLING BENEATH MUCH WARMER AIR BETWEEN
H925-85. BUT IF 2M TEMPERATURES ARE WARMER AS FORECAST FOR SUNDAY
COULD BE WARMER SUNDAY NIGHT AIDING IN LOW-LEVEL MIXING. ALSO NEED
TO CONSIDER ANY HEAVY RAIN WHICH COULD ALSO AID WITH DRAGGING FASTER
MOMENTUM TO THE SURFACE. OVERALL: MAIN CONCERN ACROSS SE NEW ENGLAND
AND HIGH TERRAIN ABOVE 1 KFT. WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE NECESSARY. CIPS
ANALOG GUIDANCE HAS JUST ABOVE 50-PERCENT FOR WINDS > 35 MPH.

WITH RAIN: BROADSCALE ASCENT OF THE WARM-CONVEYER-BELT WITH PWATS UP
TO 1.5-INCHES AND ANOMALOUS HIGH-THETAE AIR. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
NOSE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET TO THE PARENT WARM-FRONT. EXPECT A BROAD
NW-SE BAND OF RAIN WITH PERHAPS AN EMBEDDED LINE OF HEAVIER RAIN. IT
MOVES THROUGH NOTABLY QUICK. MODEL-CONSENSUS AVERAGE RAIN AMOUNTS
ARE AROUND 0.50 - 0.75 INCHES. AM NOT EXPECTING ANY FLOOD ISSUES.

INTO MONDAY...

RAINS FOR THE MORNING...IMPROVING AFTERNOON. IF WE CLEAR AS H925
TEMPERATURES WARM TO +14C THEN WE COULD POSSIBLY SEE HIGHS INTO THE
MID- TO UPPER-60S /+18C/ POSSIBLY TO NEAR 70. MODEL-CONSENSUS H925
WINDS AVERAGE AROUND 45 MPH /40 KTS/ AND WITH WARMER CONDITIONS
COULD SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR MIXING OUT TO H9 AND MOMENTUM MIX-DOWN.
WILL HINT AT THIS IN THE FORECAST...BUT MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

WILL GO WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS...BUT THE MAIN PUMP OF MOISTURE
SHOULD BE WELL OFFSHORE. OTHERWISE THE MAIN COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO
THE DEEPENING LOW LIFTING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION SWEEPS
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. EXPECTING DRY AND COOLER WEATHER FOR TUESDAY...
PERHAPS CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...

JUST TOO EARLY TO SAY. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS VARY
CONSIDERABLY WITH SURFACE LOW CENTERS AROUND THE ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH
KEY UPON A LOW SE OF THE 40N / 70W BENCHMARK AROUND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HAVE CONCERNS FOR SE NEW ENGLAND WHICH COULD SEE THE GREATEST IMPACT
WHILE NOTING A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER S-CANADA /WITH THE CENTER
OVER THE C-CONUS/. THE GFS-UPGRADED /T1534/ IS A FAR OUTLIER AND IS
NOT CONSIDERED WITH THIS FORECAST.

EVALUATING SYNOPTICS...THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A COASTAL STORM
BUT MORE OF A WAVE LOW ALONG THE OFFSHORE STALLED FRONT. AS BEEN THE
CASE THIS YEAR...COLD AIR HAS BEEN PLUNGING INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS
BUT ITS TRUE BITE REMAINS MAINLY N/W OF OUR REGION. DO HAVE SOME
CONFIDENCE THAT THE WAVE LOW WILL HUG CLOSER TO THE COAST. THEN IT
COMES TO BREAKING DOWN TIMING / ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS / THERMAL FIELDS
WHICH RIGHT NOW ARE AGAIN TOO EARLY TO DIAGNOSE. THERE HAS BEEN A
CONSISTENT SIGNAL. STORM BEARS WATCHING.

EXPECTING A RETURN OF ARCTIC AIR BEHIND WHATEVER MIDWEEK SYSTEM THAT
MAY EMERGE. DAY 6-8 CIPS ANALOGS HAVE HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW-
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE SE-CONUS INTO THE OHIO-RIVER VALLEY
CENTERED AROUND THE LATE-THANKSGIVING WEEK PERIOD. EC ENSEMBLES AT
H85 HAVE THE FREEZING MARK PLUNGING TO NEARLY THE GULF COAST...WITH
-10C AIR INTO NEW ENGLAND BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

0Z UPDATE...

VFR OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY. LIGHTS WINDS ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH
BREEZY W/NW FLOW ALONG THE SHORES WILL ENHANCE SATURDAY OUT OF THE
SW WITH LIKELY GUSTS 20-30 KTS BY AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY UP TO 35
KTS AT TIMES /ESPECIALLY OVER THE CAPE AND ISLANDS/.

LOW-END VFR SATURDAY NIGHT. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE WITH
ANY -SHRA. ISOLATED POCKETS OF -FZRA POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
IF ANY ICING IT IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIGHT. WINDS REMAINING AN
ISSUE WITH SW-GUSTS 20-30 KTS...POSSIBLY UP TO 35 KTS...MAINLY
ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN OF E/SE NEW ENGLAND.

KBOS TERMINAL...WILL HOLD VFR AND KEEP SW-WINDS AROUND 240 BRISK
THROUGHOUT BEGINNING SATURDAY. PERHAPS ISSUES ON 15/33. DO NOT
ANTICIPATE ANY -FZRA AT THE TERMINAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TERMINAL...IF ANY THREAT OF -FZRA ANTICIPATING IMPACTS AROUND
0-6Z SUNDAY /7 PM SATURDAY TO 1 AM SUNDAY/. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

INITIAL -SHRA EARLY SUNDAY WITH LOW-END VFR FOLLOWED BY SOME BRIEF
IMPROVEMENT. WINDS TURNING S.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CONDITIONS DETERIORATE MVFR-LIFR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
WITH +RA AND STRONG S-WINDS WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS POSSIBLE...
OTHERWISE LLWS IMPACTS WITH 50 KT S-WINDS 2 KFT AGL. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE BY MIDDAY...BUT COULD SEE CONTINUED SW-WINDS AROUND 25 KTS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

W-FLOW WITH MAINLY VFR.

WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

AN OFFSHORE STORM SYSTEM COULD BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ESPECIALLY
TO THE SE-TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

7 PM UPDATE...

WILL ALLOW THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO DROP ON BOSTON HARBOR AND
NARRAGANSETT BAY...BUT PREVAIL ALL OTHER WATERS TOWARDS SATURDAY
MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION ALLOWING WINDS TO
GRADUALLY RELAX OUT OF THE W/NW.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES E ALLOWING FOR A FAST-FLOWING RETURN SW-FLOW
OF AIR OVER THE WATERS. COLDER AIR OVER WATER WATERS...EXPECT SW-
GUSTS POSSIBLY EXCEEDING GALE FORCE LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT.

GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE THREAT OF GUSTS OVER THE PERIOD OF
35 KTS. SEAS LIKELY BUILDING 6 TO 9 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE S/SE-WATERS. WILL ALLOW THE OVERNIGHT SHIFT TO
EVALUATE AS TO WHETHER TO GO WITH GALE WARNINGS OR HIGH-END
SMALL-CRAFT ADVISORIES.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CONDITIONS IMPROVING AS SW-WINDS TURN S AND RELAX. WILL SEE WAVE
ACTION DISSIPATE BELOW SMALL-CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CONDITIONS DETERIORATE INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH RAIN OVER THE WATERS
AND EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS. VISIBILITY IMPACTS POSSIBLE. WINDS
INCREASING OUT OF THE S. GUSTS EXCEEDING GALE FORCE APPEAR LIKELY.
WAVES SUBSEQUENTLY INCREASING TO 10 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WINDS TURNING SW REMAINING BLUSTERY WITH GUSTS EXCEEDING 25 KTS.
WAVES MAINTAINED WITH HEIGHTS OF 8 TO 10 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS.

WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

AN OFFSHORE STORM SYSTEM COULD BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE
WATERS YET DETAILS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
     FOR ANZ231>235-237-250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ232>235-
     237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ231-251-
     255-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-254.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...FRANK/SIPPRELL
MARINE...FRANK/SIPPRELL



000
FXUS61 KBOX 220235
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
935 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A DRY BUT VERY COLD NIGHT...TEMPERATURES MODERATE SOME
SATURDAY ON GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A
SIGNIFICANT WARM UP SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY...BUT WITH A
PERIOD OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. QUIET FOR TUESDAY BUT
CONDITIONS MAY CHANGE BY WEDNESDAY WITH THE THREAT OF A STORM
SYSTEM. TURNING COLDER INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
930 PM UPDATE...
HIGH PRES IN CONTROL BRINGING CLEAR AND DIMINISHING WIND. SOME LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SPILLING INTO THE BERKSHIRES MAY BRING A FEW CLOUDS
TO W MA THROUGH 06Z THEN LOW LEVEL DRYING TAKES PLACE. EXPECT A
NICE SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING ACROSS THE INTERIOR AS WINDS
CONTINUE TO DECOUPLE RESULTING IN LOWS INTO THE TEENS...WITH
SINGLE DIGITS POSSIBLE ACROSS NW MA AND SW NH...WELL BELOW-NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MILDEST READINGS IN THE 20S WILL BE IN
BOS...OUTER CAPE/ISLANDS AND AREAS ADJACENT TO NARRAGANSETT BAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC ALLOWING FOR STRONG MID
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION TO DEVELOP. THE RESPONSE WILL BE AN INCREASE
IN MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS AS THE DAY WEARS ON...BUT IT WILL
REMAIN DRY GIVEN THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

DESPITE THE WARM ADVECTION ALOFT...IT WILL TAKE TIME FOR THAT TO BE
COMPLETELY REALIZED AT THE SURFACE. WHILE IT WILL BE MILDER THAN
TODAY...HIGH TEMPS WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S WITH SOME MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S ON THE CAPE
AND ISLANDS. HOWEVER...EXPECTING SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30
MPH TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND PERHAPS A BIT STRONGER ALONG
THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS WILL STILL MAKE IT FEEL
RATHER CHILLY OUTSIDE FOR NOVEMBER STANDARDS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...

A MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SAT NIGHT.
THERE STILL SHOULD BE ENOUGH FORCING TO BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SCATTERED LIGHT PRECIPITATION. WHILE IT CERTAINLY WILL BE TOO
WARM ALOFT FOR ANY SNOW...THE BIGGEST QUESTION IS WILL IT BE COLD
ENOUGH AT THE SURFACE FOR SOME POCKETS OF SPOTTY LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN ACROSS THE INTERIOR. ITS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE AND WILL NEED TO
BE WATCHED...BUT ITS NOT AN IDEAL SETUP. THERE IS A LOT OF WIND
OFF THE DECK AND PROBABLY ENOUGH TO PREVENT MOST AREAS FROM
DECOUPLING. GIVEN WERE +4C AT 850 MB SOME OF THIS MILDER AIR WILL
BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN. THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL LIGHT ICING
THREAT...BUT STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED POCKETS IN THE
DEEPER VALLEY LOCATIONS. LOW TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE UPPER 20S
TO MIDDLE 30S DURING THE EVENING...BUT SHOULD RISE SOME OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - TURNING WARMER AND WET MONDAY
 - A POSSIBLE MIDWEEK STORM...ESPECIALLY FOR SE NEW ENGLAND
 - LOOKING COLDER INTO THANKSGIVING

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL CONSENSUS...

TRENDING +AO/NAO WITH NEAR-NEUTRAL PNA SUGGESTS A MORE PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN AND MILD. NO SURPRISE TO SEE A LACK OF DEEP CLOSED-LOW H5
DISTURBANCES...THOUGH AN ACTIVE PATTERN WITH ABUNDANCE OF PACIFIC-
ORIGIN WAVES MAINTAINING TROUGHING BETWEEN SECTORS OF ABOVE-AVERAGE
OCEAN TEMPERATURES OVER THE NE-PACIFIC AND NW-ATLANTIC.

SOME OF THOSE WAVES ARE WELL OUT IN THE PACIFIC AND HAVE NOT EVEN
BEEN SAMPLED. THE WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WINTER-STORM POTENTIAL
FOR THE MIDWEEK / THANKSGIVING PERIOD IS JUST S OF THE FURTHEST E
ALEUTAIN ISLANDS OF ALASKA. NOTING THIS...HAVE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE
THROUGH EARLY-NEXT WEEK WITH THE FORECAST...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE FOR A
POTENTIAL MIDWEEK STORM. WILL HIT UP THE DETAILS BELOW.

SO FOR SUNDAY...

CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK TROUGH DISTURBANCE.
DISSIPATING BENEATH A MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE / SUBSIDENCE. BENEATH
THE WARM-SECTOR AND RETURN S-FLOW ROUND THE HIGH PUSHING OFF INTO
THE ATLANTIC...H925 TEMPERATURES NEARLY +10C...MAY SEE HIGHS WARM
WELL INTO THE 50S WITH ANY SUNSHINE.

AS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...

WARM-FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING BROADSCALE LIFT AHEAD OF A DEEPENING LOW
ACROSS THE C-CONUS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION BECOMES THE FOCUS
FOR RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. NON-DIURNAL WARMING TREND OVERNIGHT. ALL-
RAIN EVENT. MAIN CONCERNS ARE WITH BOTH WINDS AND RAIN.

WITH WINDS: STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET CENTERED AROUND MONDAY MORNING WITH
WINDS 1-2 KFT AGL MODEL-CONSENSUS AVERAGING AROUND 50 MPH /45 KTS/.
SUGGESTED BOUNDARY-LAYER DECOUPLING BENEATH MUCH WARMER AIR BETWEEN
H925-85. BUT IF 2M TEMPERATURES ARE WARMER AS FORECAST FOR SUNDAY
COULD BE WARMER SUNDAY NIGHT AIDING IN LOW-LEVEL MIXING. ALSO NEED
TO CONSIDER ANY HEAVY RAIN WHICH COULD ALSO AID WITH DRAGGING FASTER
MOMENTUM TO THE SURFACE. OVERALL: MAIN CONCERN ACROSS SE NEW ENGLAND
AND HIGH TERRAIN ABOVE 1 KFT. WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE NECESSARY. CIPS
ANALOG GUIDANCE HAS JUST ABOVE 50-PERCENT FOR WINDS > 35 MPH.

WITH RAIN: BROADSCALE ASCENT OF THE WARM-CONVEYER-BELT WITH PWATS UP
TO 1.5-INCHES AND ANOMALOUS HIGH-THETAE AIR. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
NOSE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET TO THE PARENT WARM-FRONT. EXPECT A BROAD
NW-SE BAND OF RAIN WITH PERHAPS AN EMBEDDED LINE OF HEAVIER RAIN. IT
MOVES THROUGH NOTABLY QUICK. MODEL-CONSENSUS AVERAGE RAIN AMOUNTS
ARE AROUND 0.50 - 0.75 INCHES. AM NOT EXPECTING ANY FLOOD ISSUES.

INTO MONDAY...

RAINS FOR THE MORNING...IMPROVING AFTERNOON. IF WE CLEAR AS H925
TEMPERATURES WARM TO +14C THEN WE COULD POSSIBLY SEE HIGHS INTO THE
MID- TO UPPER-60S /+18C/ POSSIBLY TO NEAR 70. MODEL-CONSENSUS H925
WINDS AVERAGE AROUND 45 MPH /40 KTS/ AND WITH WARMER CONDITIONS
COULD SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR MIXING OUT TO H9 AND MOMENTUM MIX-DOWN.
WILL HINT AT THIS IN THE FORECAST...BUT MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

WILL GO WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS...BUT THE MAIN PUMP OF MOISTURE
SHOULD BE WELL OFFSHORE. OTHERWISE THE MAIN COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO
THE DEEPENING LOW LIFTING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION SWEEPS
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. EXPECTING DRY AND COOLER WEATHER FOR TUESDAY...
PERHAPS CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...

JUST TOO EARLY TO SAY. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS VARY
CONSIDERABLY WITH SURFACE LOW CENTERS AROUND THE ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH
KEY UPON A LOW SE OF THE 40N / 70W BENCHMARK AROUND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HAVE CONCERNS FOR SE NEW ENGLAND WHICH COULD SEE THE GREATEST IMPACT
WHILE NOTING A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER S-CANADA /WITH THE CENTER
OVER THE C-CONUS/. THE GFS-UPGRADED /T1534/ IS A FAR OUTLIER AND IS
NOT CONSIDERED WITH THIS FORECAST.

EVALUATING SYNOPTICS...THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A COASTAL STORM
BUT MORE OF A WAVE LOW ALONG THE OFFSHORE STALLED FRONT. AS BEEN THE
CASE THIS YEAR...COLD AIR HAS BEEN PLUNGING INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS
BUT ITS TRUE BITE REMAINS MAINLY N/W OF OUR REGION. DO HAVE SOME
CONFIDENCE THAT THE WAVE LOW WILL HUG CLOSER TO THE COAST. THEN IT
COMES TO BREAKING DOWN TIMING / ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS / THERMAL FIELDS
WHICH RIGHT NOW ARE AGAIN TOO EARLY TO DIAGNOSE. THERE HAS BEEN A
CONSISTENT SIGNAL. STORM BEARS WATCHING.

EXPECTING A RETURN OF ARCTIC AIR BEHIND WHATEVER MIDWEEK SYSTEM THAT
MAY EMERGE. DAY 6-8 CIPS ANALOGS HAVE HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW-
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE SE-CONUS INTO THE OHIO-RIVER VALLEY
CENTERED AROUND THE LATE-THANKSGIVING WEEK PERIOD. EC ENSEMBLES AT
H85 HAVE THE FREEZING MARK PLUNGING TO NEARLY THE GULF COAST...WITH
-10C AIR INTO NEW ENGLAND BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

0Z UPDATE...

VFR OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY. LIGHTS WINDS ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH
BREEZY W/NW FLOW ALONG THE SHORES WILL ENHANCE SATURDAY OUT OF THE
SW WITH LIKELY GUSTS 20-30 KTS BY AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY UP TO 35
KTS AT TIMES /ESPECIALLY OVER THE CAPE AND ISLANDS/.

LOW-END VFR SATURDAY NIGHT. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE WITH
ANY -SHRA. ISOLATED POCKETS OF -FZRA POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
IF ANY ICING IT IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIGHT. WINDS REMAINING AN
ISSUE WITH SW-GUSTS 20-30 KTS...POSSIBLY UP TO 35 KTS...MAINLY
ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN OF E/SE NEW ENGLAND.

KBOS TERMINAL...WILL HOLD VFR AND KEEP SW-WINDS AROUND 240 BRISK
THROUGHOUT BEGINNING SATURDAY. PERHAPS ISSUES ON 15/33. DO NOT
ANTICIPATE ANY -FZRA AT THE TERMINAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TERMINAL...IF ANY THREAT OF -FZRA ANTICIPATING IMPACTS AROUND
0-6Z SUNDAY /7 PM SATURDAY TO 1 AM SUNDAY/. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

INITIAL -SHRA EARLY SUNDAY WITH LOW-END VFR FOLLOWED BY SOME BRIEF
IMPROVEMENT. WINDS TURNING S.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CONDITIONS DETERIORATE MVFR-LIFR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
WITH +RA AND STRONG S-WINDS WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS POSSIBLE...
OTHERWISE LLWS IMPACTS WITH 50 KT S-WINDS 2 KFT AGL. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE BY MIDDAY...BUT COULD SEE CONTINUED SW-WINDS AROUND 25 KTS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

W-FLOW WITH MAINLY VFR.

WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

AN OFFSHORE STORM SYSTEM COULD BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ESPECIALLY
TO THE SE-TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

7 PM UPDATE...

WILL ALLOW THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO DROP ON BOSTON HARBOR AND
NARRAGANSETT BAY...BUT PREVAIL ALL OTHER WATERS TOWARDS SATURDAY
MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION ALLOWING WINDS TO
GRADUALLY RELAX OUT OF THE W/NW.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES E ALLOWING FOR A FAST-FLOWING RETURN SW-FLOW
OF AIR OVER THE WATERS. COLDER AIR OVER WATER WATERS...EXPECT SW-
GUSTS POSSIBLY EXCEEDING GALE FORCE LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT.

GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE THREAT OF GUSTS OVER THE PERIOD OF
35 KTS. SEAS LIKELY BUILDING 6 TO 9 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE S/SE-WATERS. WILL ALLOW THE OVERNIGHT SHIFT TO
EVALUATE AS TO WHETHER TO GO WITH GALE WARNINGS OR HIGH-END
SMALL-CRAFT ADVISORIES.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CONDITIONS IMPROVING AS SW-WINDS TURN S AND RELAX. WILL SEE WAVE
ACTION DISSIPATE BELOW SMALL-CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CONDITIONS DETERIORATE INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH RAIN OVER THE WATERS
AND EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS. VISIBILITY IMPACTS POSSIBLE. WINDS
INCREASING OUT OF THE S. GUSTS EXCEEDING GALE FORCE APPEAR LIKELY.
WAVES SUBSEQUENTLY INCREASING TO 10 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WINDS TURNING SW REMAINING BLUSTERY WITH GUSTS EXCEEDING 25 KTS.
WAVES MAINTAINED WITH HEIGHTS OF 8 TO 10 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS.

WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

AN OFFSHORE STORM SYSTEM COULD BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE
WATERS YET DETAILS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
     FOR ANZ231>235-237-250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ232>235-
     237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ231-251-
     255-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-254.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...FRANK/SIPPRELL
MARINE...FRANK/SIPPRELL



000
FXUS61 KALY 220001
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
701 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ASIDE FROM A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER THE
MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...A COLD AND DRY NIGHT IS IN
STORE FOR TONIGHT.  A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO
THE REGION LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO TOMORROW NIGHT. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BRING MILDER AIR TO THE REGION FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH SOME RAINFALL AS WELL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 700 PM EST...THIS UPDATE WAS TO REDUCE CLOUD COVER BASED ON
THE SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND LOWER THE POPS OVER THE SRN
DACKS...WRN MOHAWK VALLEY...AND NRN CATSKILLS...WITH THE SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES BARELY GETTING INTO THESE AREAS OFF LAKE ONTARIO.
THE HOURLY T/TD/RH/APPARENT TEMPS WERE REDONE BASED ON THE
HOURLIES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY HAS SIGNIFICANTLY DIMINISHED
OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS OVER THE AREA. INVERSION HEIGHTS HAVE
LOWERED DOWN TO ABOUT 5000 FEET THANKS TO A BUILDING AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE...WHICH HAS CAUSED ANY REMAINING LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY TO
DWINDLE DOWN TO JUST LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES...MAINLY FOR
AREAS CLOSER TO THE LAKESHORE. HIRES MODELS...SUCH AS OUR LOCAL
WRF AND THE 3KM HRRR...SHOW ANY LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY THIS EVENING
TO SHIFT NORTHWARD AND AFFECT JUST THE FAR WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY
AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION WILL BE JUST
A COATING OR LESS...AS ANY APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION WILL BE
CONFINED TO AREAS CLOSER TO THE LAKE SHORE.

OUTSIDE OF THIS LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY...SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME MIXING...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND A RATHER CHILLY NIGHT. MINS WILL BE IN THE TEENS
/SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND SRN GREENS/. THESE LOW
TEMPS ARE IMPRESSIVE CONSIDERING IT/S ONLY MID NOVEMBER...AND MOST
OF THE AREA DOES NOT HAVE A DEEP SNOW COVER IN PLACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AFTER A COLD AND DRY START...CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE
WEST FOR DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. OUR REGION WILL BE INFLUENCED BY
FAST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AT 500 HPA...AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BE
MOVING TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES. 850 HPA TEMPS WILL
BE RAPIDLY WARMING THROUGH THE DAY THANKS TO WARM AIR
ADVECTION...AND 850 HPA TEMPS WILL RISE TO OR ABOVE FREEZING IN
MANY AREAS BY THE AFTN HOURS.

WITH THE ISENTROPIC LIFT/WARM AIR ADVECTION UNDERWAY...SOME LIGHT
PRECIP WILL BREAK OUT FROM WEST TO EAST LATE IN THE DAY AND
CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING PRECIP
WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA /NORTH OF I-90/...CLOSER
TO THE LARGE SCALE FORCING. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD
OF LIGHT SNOW FOR THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS TO START...MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL BE IN THE FORM OF A
WINTRY MIX CHANGING TO RAIN. IN MANY NORTHERN AREAS...THERE WILL
BE A PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIP /SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN/...WHICH WILL
EVENTUALLY CHANGE TO JUST A COLD PLAIN RAIN OVERNIGHT. FOR SOME
AREAS...INCLUDING THE GREATER CAPITAL REGION...TEMPS ON SAT MAY
RISE JUST ABOVE FREEZING...AND THEN HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE FOR
SAT NIGHT...AND PRECIP MAY WIND UP ONLY BEING IN THE FORM OF A
PLAIN COLD RAIN. ALL MEMBERS OF THE 15Z SREF SUGGEST THIS EVENT
WILL BE LIQUID FOR ALBANY...AND EVEN THE 12Z GEFS SHOW A LIMITED
WINDOW FOR MIXED PRECIP AT ALBANY AS WELL. THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING MIXED PRECIP WILL BE FOR THE ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE
SARATOGA REGION...SRN VT...TACONICS AND THE BERKSHIRES. EVEN IN
THE HIGH TERRAIN...LIGHT QPF WILL PREVENT ICE ACCRETION FROM BEING
MORE THAN JUST A COATING TO A TENTH OF AN INCH...WITH JUST A
COATING OF SNOW/SLEET POSSIBLE FOR HIGH TERRAIN AREAS AS WELL.

TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 30S FOR MANY AREAS ON
SATURDAY. ON SAT NIGHT...TEMPS WILL HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME OUT OF THE
S-SW AND BRING MILDER AIR INTO THE REGION.

ANY PRECIP LOOKS TO END BY SUNDAY MORNING...BUT IT WILL PROBABLY
REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...AS A LINGERING
BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER THE AREA. WE CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
RAIN SHOWER AROUND DUE TO THE SFC BOUNDARY NEARBY...BUT MOST AREAS
LOOK TO STAY DRY ON SUNDAY. THERE MAY BE SOME CLEARING LATE IN THE
DAY...MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN AREAS. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE SHORT
LIVED...AS YET ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE
SOUTH AND WEST. TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY MILDER ON SUNDAY...WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S TO LOW 50S.

THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE A MUCH STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CUTTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS STORM WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA LATE ON SUN
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. A WIDESPREAD STEADY RAINFALL WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA...AND PRECIP WILL BE IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAIN
EVERYWHERE DUE TO WARM TEMPS ALOFT. 850 HPA TEMPS WILL RISE TO AT
LEAST 10 DEGREES C EVERYWHERE BY MONDAY. A SOLID HALF INCH OF RAIN
IS EXPECTED FOR THE WHOLE REGION...AS 850 HPA SOUTHERLY WINDS OF
50 KTS OR MORE TRANSPORT PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THIS
WILL KEPT TEMPS MILD FOR SUN NIGHT...WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE UPPER
30S TO MID 40S. RAINFALL SHOULD BE ENDING ON MONDAY MORNING FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH.  BEHIND THE RAINFALL...THERE MAY BE SOME CLEARING
FOR LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY...AS OUR REGION BECOMES FULLY IN THE
STORM/S WARM SECTOR. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO REACH THE MID
50S TO MID 60S...WHICH IS 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE THE THE DOMINATE FEATURE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE EASTERN UNITED NEXT WEEK WITH NUMEROUS SHORT WAVES. IN THE
MEANWHILE THERE WILL BE RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST WHICH WILL
DAMPEN AS IT MOVES EASTWARD AS A TROUGH HEADS FOR THE WEST COAST
LATE IN THE WEEK. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK
ESPECIALLY AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. THE UNCERTAINTIES WILL ORIGINATE
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WHERE THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IS MODEL
GUIDANCE.

WE START OUT WITH SOME LINGERING PRECIPITATION AS LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WHICH PASSES WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST CONTINUES TO MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD
BECOME FAVORABLE IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW FOR LAKE EFFECT TO OCCUR
INTO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

IN THE MEANTIME...GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A SHORT WAVE ROTATING
ABOUT BASE OF THE DEEP TROUGH OVER NEAR THE GULF OF MEXICO COAST
TUESDAY WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST BY
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO HEAD NORTHEASTWARD
REMAINING WELL OFFSHORE. HOWEVER THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD
IN THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE LOW. THE ECMWF TRACKS THE LOW CLOSER
TO THE COAST THAN THE GFS AND BRINGS ITS PRECIPITATION SHIELD ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE GFS KEEP ITS PRECIPITATION
TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. FOLLOWING THE LEAD OF THE WEATHER PREDICTION
CENTER HAVE USED A BLENDED APPROACH. HAVE RUN WITH CHANCE POPS
ACROSS MY FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE
NEAR NORMAL WHICH MEANS WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN DURING THE DAY FOR SOME
AREAS.

THERE IS MUCH GREATER UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AS WE HEAD INTO
THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK...THANKSGIVING DAY AND FRIDAY. THE TIMING
OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES IN BOTH THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS
WILL HAVE BIG IMPACT ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER AND WHERE AND WHEN A
LOW FORMS AND HOW STRONG IT MAY GET. INDICATIONS ARE A LOW SHOULD
FORM SOMEWHERE OFF THE SOUTHEAST TO MID ATLANTIC COAST BY THURSDAY
NIGHT. HAVE RUN WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS/CLIMATOLOGICALLY FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY SINCE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IS SO HIGH.

AS FOR THANKSGIVING DAY...AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE WEATHER
SHOULD BE FAIR AS WE ARE BETWEEN SYSTEMS.

OVERALL GUIDANCE INDICATES TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY COOL AS THE
WEEK PROGRESSES WITH BELOW NORMAL READINGS EXPECTED BY THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT...AND MOVE
OFFSHORE EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. A WEAK DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF A
WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT MIXED PCPN TO THE REGION LATE
TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH THICKENING AND
LOWERING CLOUDS DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE
SKIES WILL CLEAR TONIGHT...WITH THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN
BETWEEN 10-15Z/SAT. THERE COULD BE SOME SPOTTY SNOW SHOWERS AROUND
FROM KALB NORTH AND EAST AFTER 20Z/SAT...AND THESE WERE ADDRESSED
WITH A VCSH FOR KALB/KGFL/KPSF FOR NOW.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SW TO W AT 4-10 KTS EARLY THIS
EVENING..AND THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 5 KTS
OR LESS AFTER 05Z/SAT. EXPECT THE WINDS TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST AT 8-12 KTS LATE TOMORROW MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME GUSTS CLOSE TO 20 KTS AT KALB.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

THERE WILL BE A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER FAR
WESTERN AREAS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED. A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL IMPACT THE REGION...MAINLY FOR
AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...FOR LATE TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW
NIGHT. BASIN AVERAGE LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF PRECIP WILL BE A
QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON AREA
RIVERS AND STREAMS. ALONG WITH A MILDER AIR MASS...A MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAINFALL...WILL
IMPACT THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR SO. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS








000
FXUS61 KALY 220001
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
701 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ASIDE FROM A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER THE
MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...A COLD AND DRY NIGHT IS IN
STORE FOR TONIGHT.  A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO
THE REGION LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO TOMORROW NIGHT. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BRING MILDER AIR TO THE REGION FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH SOME RAINFALL AS WELL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 700 PM EST...THIS UPDATE WAS TO REDUCE CLOUD COVER BASED ON
THE SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND LOWER THE POPS OVER THE SRN
DACKS...WRN MOHAWK VALLEY...AND NRN CATSKILLS...WITH THE SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES BARELY GETTING INTO THESE AREAS OFF LAKE ONTARIO.
THE HOURLY T/TD/RH/APPARENT TEMPS WERE REDONE BASED ON THE
HOURLIES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY HAS SIGNIFICANTLY DIMINISHED
OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS OVER THE AREA. INVERSION HEIGHTS HAVE
LOWERED DOWN TO ABOUT 5000 FEET THANKS TO A BUILDING AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE...WHICH HAS CAUSED ANY REMAINING LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY TO
DWINDLE DOWN TO JUST LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES...MAINLY FOR
AREAS CLOSER TO THE LAKESHORE. HIRES MODELS...SUCH AS OUR LOCAL
WRF AND THE 3KM HRRR...SHOW ANY LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY THIS EVENING
TO SHIFT NORTHWARD AND AFFECT JUST THE FAR WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY
AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION WILL BE JUST
A COATING OR LESS...AS ANY APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION WILL BE
CONFINED TO AREAS CLOSER TO THE LAKE SHORE.

OUTSIDE OF THIS LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY...SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME MIXING...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND A RATHER CHILLY NIGHT. MINS WILL BE IN THE TEENS
/SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND SRN GREENS/. THESE LOW
TEMPS ARE IMPRESSIVE CONSIDERING IT/S ONLY MID NOVEMBER...AND MOST
OF THE AREA DOES NOT HAVE A DEEP SNOW COVER IN PLACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AFTER A COLD AND DRY START...CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE
WEST FOR DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. OUR REGION WILL BE INFLUENCED BY
FAST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AT 500 HPA...AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BE
MOVING TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES. 850 HPA TEMPS WILL
BE RAPIDLY WARMING THROUGH THE DAY THANKS TO WARM AIR
ADVECTION...AND 850 HPA TEMPS WILL RISE TO OR ABOVE FREEZING IN
MANY AREAS BY THE AFTN HOURS.

WITH THE ISENTROPIC LIFT/WARM AIR ADVECTION UNDERWAY...SOME LIGHT
PRECIP WILL BREAK OUT FROM WEST TO EAST LATE IN THE DAY AND
CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING PRECIP
WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA /NORTH OF I-90/...CLOSER
TO THE LARGE SCALE FORCING. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD
OF LIGHT SNOW FOR THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS TO START...MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL BE IN THE FORM OF A
WINTRY MIX CHANGING TO RAIN. IN MANY NORTHERN AREAS...THERE WILL
BE A PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIP /SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN/...WHICH WILL
EVENTUALLY CHANGE TO JUST A COLD PLAIN RAIN OVERNIGHT. FOR SOME
AREAS...INCLUDING THE GREATER CAPITAL REGION...TEMPS ON SAT MAY
RISE JUST ABOVE FREEZING...AND THEN HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE FOR
SAT NIGHT...AND PRECIP MAY WIND UP ONLY BEING IN THE FORM OF A
PLAIN COLD RAIN. ALL MEMBERS OF THE 15Z SREF SUGGEST THIS EVENT
WILL BE LIQUID FOR ALBANY...AND EVEN THE 12Z GEFS SHOW A LIMITED
WINDOW FOR MIXED PRECIP AT ALBANY AS WELL. THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING MIXED PRECIP WILL BE FOR THE ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE
SARATOGA REGION...SRN VT...TACONICS AND THE BERKSHIRES. EVEN IN
THE HIGH TERRAIN...LIGHT QPF WILL PREVENT ICE ACCRETION FROM BEING
MORE THAN JUST A COATING TO A TENTH OF AN INCH...WITH JUST A
COATING OF SNOW/SLEET POSSIBLE FOR HIGH TERRAIN AREAS AS WELL.

TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 30S FOR MANY AREAS ON
SATURDAY. ON SAT NIGHT...TEMPS WILL HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME OUT OF THE
S-SW AND BRING MILDER AIR INTO THE REGION.

ANY PRECIP LOOKS TO END BY SUNDAY MORNING...BUT IT WILL PROBABLY
REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...AS A LINGERING
BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER THE AREA. WE CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
RAIN SHOWER AROUND DUE TO THE SFC BOUNDARY NEARBY...BUT MOST AREAS
LOOK TO STAY DRY ON SUNDAY. THERE MAY BE SOME CLEARING LATE IN THE
DAY...MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN AREAS. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE SHORT
LIVED...AS YET ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE
SOUTH AND WEST. TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY MILDER ON SUNDAY...WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S TO LOW 50S.

THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE A MUCH STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CUTTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS STORM WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA LATE ON SUN
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. A WIDESPREAD STEADY RAINFALL WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA...AND PRECIP WILL BE IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAIN
EVERYWHERE DUE TO WARM TEMPS ALOFT. 850 HPA TEMPS WILL RISE TO AT
LEAST 10 DEGREES C EVERYWHERE BY MONDAY. A SOLID HALF INCH OF RAIN
IS EXPECTED FOR THE WHOLE REGION...AS 850 HPA SOUTHERLY WINDS OF
50 KTS OR MORE TRANSPORT PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THIS
WILL KEPT TEMPS MILD FOR SUN NIGHT...WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE UPPER
30S TO MID 40S. RAINFALL SHOULD BE ENDING ON MONDAY MORNING FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH.  BEHIND THE RAINFALL...THERE MAY BE SOME CLEARING
FOR LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY...AS OUR REGION BECOMES FULLY IN THE
STORM/S WARM SECTOR. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO REACH THE MID
50S TO MID 60S...WHICH IS 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE THE THE DOMINATE FEATURE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE EASTERN UNITED NEXT WEEK WITH NUMEROUS SHORT WAVES. IN THE
MEANWHILE THERE WILL BE RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST WHICH WILL
DAMPEN AS IT MOVES EASTWARD AS A TROUGH HEADS FOR THE WEST COAST
LATE IN THE WEEK. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK
ESPECIALLY AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. THE UNCERTAINTIES WILL ORIGINATE
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WHERE THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IS MODEL
GUIDANCE.

WE START OUT WITH SOME LINGERING PRECIPITATION AS LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WHICH PASSES WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST CONTINUES TO MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD
BECOME FAVORABLE IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW FOR LAKE EFFECT TO OCCUR
INTO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

IN THE MEANTIME...GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A SHORT WAVE ROTATING
ABOUT BASE OF THE DEEP TROUGH OVER NEAR THE GULF OF MEXICO COAST
TUESDAY WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST BY
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO HEAD NORTHEASTWARD
REMAINING WELL OFFSHORE. HOWEVER THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD
IN THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE LOW. THE ECMWF TRACKS THE LOW CLOSER
TO THE COAST THAN THE GFS AND BRINGS ITS PRECIPITATION SHIELD ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE GFS KEEP ITS PRECIPITATION
TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. FOLLOWING THE LEAD OF THE WEATHER PREDICTION
CENTER HAVE USED A BLENDED APPROACH. HAVE RUN WITH CHANCE POPS
ACROSS MY FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE
NEAR NORMAL WHICH MEANS WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN DURING THE DAY FOR SOME
AREAS.

THERE IS MUCH GREATER UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AS WE HEAD INTO
THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK...THANKSGIVING DAY AND FRIDAY. THE TIMING
OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES IN BOTH THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS
WILL HAVE BIG IMPACT ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER AND WHERE AND WHEN A
LOW FORMS AND HOW STRONG IT MAY GET. INDICATIONS ARE A LOW SHOULD
FORM SOMEWHERE OFF THE SOUTHEAST TO MID ATLANTIC COAST BY THURSDAY
NIGHT. HAVE RUN WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS/CLIMATOLOGICALLY FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY SINCE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IS SO HIGH.

AS FOR THANKSGIVING DAY...AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE WEATHER
SHOULD BE FAIR AS WE ARE BETWEEN SYSTEMS.

OVERALL GUIDANCE INDICATES TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY COOL AS THE
WEEK PROGRESSES WITH BELOW NORMAL READINGS EXPECTED BY THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT...AND MOVE
OFFSHORE EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. A WEAK DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF A
WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT MIXED PCPN TO THE REGION LATE
TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH THICKENING AND
LOWERING CLOUDS DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE
SKIES WILL CLEAR TONIGHT...WITH THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN
BETWEEN 10-15Z/SAT. THERE COULD BE SOME SPOTTY SNOW SHOWERS AROUND
FROM KALB NORTH AND EAST AFTER 20Z/SAT...AND THESE WERE ADDRESSED
WITH A VCSH FOR KALB/KGFL/KPSF FOR NOW.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SW TO W AT 4-10 KTS EARLY THIS
EVENING..AND THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 5 KTS
OR LESS AFTER 05Z/SAT. EXPECT THE WINDS TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST AT 8-12 KTS LATE TOMORROW MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME GUSTS CLOSE TO 20 KTS AT KALB.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

THERE WILL BE A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER FAR
WESTERN AREAS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED. A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL IMPACT THE REGION...MAINLY FOR
AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...FOR LATE TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW
NIGHT. BASIN AVERAGE LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF PRECIP WILL BE A
QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON AREA
RIVERS AND STREAMS. ALONG WITH A MILDER AIR MASS...A MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAINFALL...WILL
IMPACT THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR SO. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS








000
FXUS61 KALY 220001
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
701 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ASIDE FROM A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER THE
MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...A COLD AND DRY NIGHT IS IN
STORE FOR TONIGHT.  A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO
THE REGION LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO TOMORROW NIGHT. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BRING MILDER AIR TO THE REGION FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH SOME RAINFALL AS WELL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 700 PM EST...THIS UPDATE WAS TO REDUCE CLOUD COVER BASED ON
THE SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND LOWER THE POPS OVER THE SRN
DACKS...WRN MOHAWK VALLEY...AND NRN CATSKILLS...WITH THE SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES BARELY GETTING INTO THESE AREAS OFF LAKE ONTARIO.
THE HOURLY T/TD/RH/APPARENT TEMPS WERE REDONE BASED ON THE
HOURLIES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY HAS SIGNIFICANTLY DIMINISHED
OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS OVER THE AREA. INVERSION HEIGHTS HAVE
LOWERED DOWN TO ABOUT 5000 FEET THANKS TO A BUILDING AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE...WHICH HAS CAUSED ANY REMAINING LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY TO
DWINDLE DOWN TO JUST LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES...MAINLY FOR
AREAS CLOSER TO THE LAKESHORE. HIRES MODELS...SUCH AS OUR LOCAL
WRF AND THE 3KM HRRR...SHOW ANY LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY THIS EVENING
TO SHIFT NORTHWARD AND AFFECT JUST THE FAR WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY
AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION WILL BE JUST
A COATING OR LESS...AS ANY APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION WILL BE
CONFINED TO AREAS CLOSER TO THE LAKE SHORE.

OUTSIDE OF THIS LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY...SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME MIXING...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND A RATHER CHILLY NIGHT. MINS WILL BE IN THE TEENS
/SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND SRN GREENS/. THESE LOW
TEMPS ARE IMPRESSIVE CONSIDERING IT/S ONLY MID NOVEMBER...AND MOST
OF THE AREA DOES NOT HAVE A DEEP SNOW COVER IN PLACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AFTER A COLD AND DRY START...CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE
WEST FOR DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. OUR REGION WILL BE INFLUENCED BY
FAST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AT 500 HPA...AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BE
MOVING TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES. 850 HPA TEMPS WILL
BE RAPIDLY WARMING THROUGH THE DAY THANKS TO WARM AIR
ADVECTION...AND 850 HPA TEMPS WILL RISE TO OR ABOVE FREEZING IN
MANY AREAS BY THE AFTN HOURS.

WITH THE ISENTROPIC LIFT/WARM AIR ADVECTION UNDERWAY...SOME LIGHT
PRECIP WILL BREAK OUT FROM WEST TO EAST LATE IN THE DAY AND
CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING PRECIP
WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA /NORTH OF I-90/...CLOSER
TO THE LARGE SCALE FORCING. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD
OF LIGHT SNOW FOR THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS TO START...MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL BE IN THE FORM OF A
WINTRY MIX CHANGING TO RAIN. IN MANY NORTHERN AREAS...THERE WILL
BE A PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIP /SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN/...WHICH WILL
EVENTUALLY CHANGE TO JUST A COLD PLAIN RAIN OVERNIGHT. FOR SOME
AREAS...INCLUDING THE GREATER CAPITAL REGION...TEMPS ON SAT MAY
RISE JUST ABOVE FREEZING...AND THEN HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE FOR
SAT NIGHT...AND PRECIP MAY WIND UP ONLY BEING IN THE FORM OF A
PLAIN COLD RAIN. ALL MEMBERS OF THE 15Z SREF SUGGEST THIS EVENT
WILL BE LIQUID FOR ALBANY...AND EVEN THE 12Z GEFS SHOW A LIMITED
WINDOW FOR MIXED PRECIP AT ALBANY AS WELL. THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING MIXED PRECIP WILL BE FOR THE ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE
SARATOGA REGION...SRN VT...TACONICS AND THE BERKSHIRES. EVEN IN
THE HIGH TERRAIN...LIGHT QPF WILL PREVENT ICE ACCRETION FROM BEING
MORE THAN JUST A COATING TO A TENTH OF AN INCH...WITH JUST A
COATING OF SNOW/SLEET POSSIBLE FOR HIGH TERRAIN AREAS AS WELL.

TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 30S FOR MANY AREAS ON
SATURDAY. ON SAT NIGHT...TEMPS WILL HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME OUT OF THE
S-SW AND BRING MILDER AIR INTO THE REGION.

ANY PRECIP LOOKS TO END BY SUNDAY MORNING...BUT IT WILL PROBABLY
REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...AS A LINGERING
BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER THE AREA. WE CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
RAIN SHOWER AROUND DUE TO THE SFC BOUNDARY NEARBY...BUT MOST AREAS
LOOK TO STAY DRY ON SUNDAY. THERE MAY BE SOME CLEARING LATE IN THE
DAY...MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN AREAS. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE SHORT
LIVED...AS YET ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE
SOUTH AND WEST. TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY MILDER ON SUNDAY...WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S TO LOW 50S.

THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE A MUCH STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CUTTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS STORM WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA LATE ON SUN
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. A WIDESPREAD STEADY RAINFALL WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA...AND PRECIP WILL BE IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAIN
EVERYWHERE DUE TO WARM TEMPS ALOFT. 850 HPA TEMPS WILL RISE TO AT
LEAST 10 DEGREES C EVERYWHERE BY MONDAY. A SOLID HALF INCH OF RAIN
IS EXPECTED FOR THE WHOLE REGION...AS 850 HPA SOUTHERLY WINDS OF
50 KTS OR MORE TRANSPORT PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THIS
WILL KEPT TEMPS MILD FOR SUN NIGHT...WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE UPPER
30S TO MID 40S. RAINFALL SHOULD BE ENDING ON MONDAY MORNING FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH.  BEHIND THE RAINFALL...THERE MAY BE SOME CLEARING
FOR LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY...AS OUR REGION BECOMES FULLY IN THE
STORM/S WARM SECTOR. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO REACH THE MID
50S TO MID 60S...WHICH IS 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE THE THE DOMINATE FEATURE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE EASTERN UNITED NEXT WEEK WITH NUMEROUS SHORT WAVES. IN THE
MEANWHILE THERE WILL BE RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST WHICH WILL
DAMPEN AS IT MOVES EASTWARD AS A TROUGH HEADS FOR THE WEST COAST
LATE IN THE WEEK. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK
ESPECIALLY AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. THE UNCERTAINTIES WILL ORIGINATE
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WHERE THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IS MODEL
GUIDANCE.

WE START OUT WITH SOME LINGERING PRECIPITATION AS LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WHICH PASSES WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST CONTINUES TO MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD
BECOME FAVORABLE IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW FOR LAKE EFFECT TO OCCUR
INTO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

IN THE MEANTIME...GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A SHORT WAVE ROTATING
ABOUT BASE OF THE DEEP TROUGH OVER NEAR THE GULF OF MEXICO COAST
TUESDAY WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST BY
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO HEAD NORTHEASTWARD
REMAINING WELL OFFSHORE. HOWEVER THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD
IN THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE LOW. THE ECMWF TRACKS THE LOW CLOSER
TO THE COAST THAN THE GFS AND BRINGS ITS PRECIPITATION SHIELD ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE GFS KEEP ITS PRECIPITATION
TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. FOLLOWING THE LEAD OF THE WEATHER PREDICTION
CENTER HAVE USED A BLENDED APPROACH. HAVE RUN WITH CHANCE POPS
ACROSS MY FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE
NEAR NORMAL WHICH MEANS WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN DURING THE DAY FOR SOME
AREAS.

THERE IS MUCH GREATER UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AS WE HEAD INTO
THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK...THANKSGIVING DAY AND FRIDAY. THE TIMING
OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES IN BOTH THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS
WILL HAVE BIG IMPACT ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER AND WHERE AND WHEN A
LOW FORMS AND HOW STRONG IT MAY GET. INDICATIONS ARE A LOW SHOULD
FORM SOMEWHERE OFF THE SOUTHEAST TO MID ATLANTIC COAST BY THURSDAY
NIGHT. HAVE RUN WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS/CLIMATOLOGICALLY FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY SINCE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IS SO HIGH.

AS FOR THANKSGIVING DAY...AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE WEATHER
SHOULD BE FAIR AS WE ARE BETWEEN SYSTEMS.

OVERALL GUIDANCE INDICATES TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY COOL AS THE
WEEK PROGRESSES WITH BELOW NORMAL READINGS EXPECTED BY THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT...AND MOVE
OFFSHORE EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. A WEAK DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF A
WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT MIXED PCPN TO THE REGION LATE
TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH THICKENING AND
LOWERING CLOUDS DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE
SKIES WILL CLEAR TONIGHT...WITH THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN
BETWEEN 10-15Z/SAT. THERE COULD BE SOME SPOTTY SNOW SHOWERS AROUND
FROM KALB NORTH AND EAST AFTER 20Z/SAT...AND THESE WERE ADDRESSED
WITH A VCSH FOR KALB/KGFL/KPSF FOR NOW.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SW TO W AT 4-10 KTS EARLY THIS
EVENING..AND THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 5 KTS
OR LESS AFTER 05Z/SAT. EXPECT THE WINDS TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST AT 8-12 KTS LATE TOMORROW MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME GUSTS CLOSE TO 20 KTS AT KALB.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

THERE WILL BE A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER FAR
WESTERN AREAS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED. A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL IMPACT THE REGION...MAINLY FOR
AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...FOR LATE TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW
NIGHT. BASIN AVERAGE LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF PRECIP WILL BE A
QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON AREA
RIVERS AND STREAMS. ALONG WITH A MILDER AIR MASS...A MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAINFALL...WILL
IMPACT THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR SO. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS








000
FXUS61 KALY 220001
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
701 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ASIDE FROM A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER THE
MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...A COLD AND DRY NIGHT IS IN
STORE FOR TONIGHT.  A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO
THE REGION LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO TOMORROW NIGHT. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BRING MILDER AIR TO THE REGION FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH SOME RAINFALL AS WELL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 700 PM EST...THIS UPDATE WAS TO REDUCE CLOUD COVER BASED ON
THE SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND LOWER THE POPS OVER THE SRN
DACKS...WRN MOHAWK VALLEY...AND NRN CATSKILLS...WITH THE SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES BARELY GETTING INTO THESE AREAS OFF LAKE ONTARIO.
THE HOURLY T/TD/RH/APPARENT TEMPS WERE REDONE BASED ON THE
HOURLIES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY HAS SIGNIFICANTLY DIMINISHED
OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS OVER THE AREA. INVERSION HEIGHTS HAVE
LOWERED DOWN TO ABOUT 5000 FEET THANKS TO A BUILDING AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE...WHICH HAS CAUSED ANY REMAINING LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY TO
DWINDLE DOWN TO JUST LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES...MAINLY FOR
AREAS CLOSER TO THE LAKESHORE. HIRES MODELS...SUCH AS OUR LOCAL
WRF AND THE 3KM HRRR...SHOW ANY LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY THIS EVENING
TO SHIFT NORTHWARD AND AFFECT JUST THE FAR WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY
AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION WILL BE JUST
A COATING OR LESS...AS ANY APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION WILL BE
CONFINED TO AREAS CLOSER TO THE LAKE SHORE.

OUTSIDE OF THIS LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY...SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME MIXING...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND A RATHER CHILLY NIGHT. MINS WILL BE IN THE TEENS
/SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND SRN GREENS/. THESE LOW
TEMPS ARE IMPRESSIVE CONSIDERING IT/S ONLY MID NOVEMBER...AND MOST
OF THE AREA DOES NOT HAVE A DEEP SNOW COVER IN PLACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AFTER A COLD AND DRY START...CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE
WEST FOR DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. OUR REGION WILL BE INFLUENCED BY
FAST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AT 500 HPA...AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BE
MOVING TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES. 850 HPA TEMPS WILL
BE RAPIDLY WARMING THROUGH THE DAY THANKS TO WARM AIR
ADVECTION...AND 850 HPA TEMPS WILL RISE TO OR ABOVE FREEZING IN
MANY AREAS BY THE AFTN HOURS.

WITH THE ISENTROPIC LIFT/WARM AIR ADVECTION UNDERWAY...SOME LIGHT
PRECIP WILL BREAK OUT FROM WEST TO EAST LATE IN THE DAY AND
CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING PRECIP
WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA /NORTH OF I-90/...CLOSER
TO THE LARGE SCALE FORCING. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD
OF LIGHT SNOW FOR THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS TO START...MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL BE IN THE FORM OF A
WINTRY MIX CHANGING TO RAIN. IN MANY NORTHERN AREAS...THERE WILL
BE A PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIP /SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN/...WHICH WILL
EVENTUALLY CHANGE TO JUST A COLD PLAIN RAIN OVERNIGHT. FOR SOME
AREAS...INCLUDING THE GREATER CAPITAL REGION...TEMPS ON SAT MAY
RISE JUST ABOVE FREEZING...AND THEN HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE FOR
SAT NIGHT...AND PRECIP MAY WIND UP ONLY BEING IN THE FORM OF A
PLAIN COLD RAIN. ALL MEMBERS OF THE 15Z SREF SUGGEST THIS EVENT
WILL BE LIQUID FOR ALBANY...AND EVEN THE 12Z GEFS SHOW A LIMITED
WINDOW FOR MIXED PRECIP AT ALBANY AS WELL. THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING MIXED PRECIP WILL BE FOR THE ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE
SARATOGA REGION...SRN VT...TACONICS AND THE BERKSHIRES. EVEN IN
THE HIGH TERRAIN...LIGHT QPF WILL PREVENT ICE ACCRETION FROM BEING
MORE THAN JUST A COATING TO A TENTH OF AN INCH...WITH JUST A
COATING OF SNOW/SLEET POSSIBLE FOR HIGH TERRAIN AREAS AS WELL.

TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 30S FOR MANY AREAS ON
SATURDAY. ON SAT NIGHT...TEMPS WILL HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME OUT OF THE
S-SW AND BRING MILDER AIR INTO THE REGION.

ANY PRECIP LOOKS TO END BY SUNDAY MORNING...BUT IT WILL PROBABLY
REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...AS A LINGERING
BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER THE AREA. WE CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
RAIN SHOWER AROUND DUE TO THE SFC BOUNDARY NEARBY...BUT MOST AREAS
LOOK TO STAY DRY ON SUNDAY. THERE MAY BE SOME CLEARING LATE IN THE
DAY...MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN AREAS. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE SHORT
LIVED...AS YET ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE
SOUTH AND WEST. TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY MILDER ON SUNDAY...WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S TO LOW 50S.

THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE A MUCH STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CUTTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS STORM WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA LATE ON SUN
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. A WIDESPREAD STEADY RAINFALL WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA...AND PRECIP WILL BE IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAIN
EVERYWHERE DUE TO WARM TEMPS ALOFT. 850 HPA TEMPS WILL RISE TO AT
LEAST 10 DEGREES C EVERYWHERE BY MONDAY. A SOLID HALF INCH OF RAIN
IS EXPECTED FOR THE WHOLE REGION...AS 850 HPA SOUTHERLY WINDS OF
50 KTS OR MORE TRANSPORT PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THIS
WILL KEPT TEMPS MILD FOR SUN NIGHT...WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE UPPER
30S TO MID 40S. RAINFALL SHOULD BE ENDING ON MONDAY MORNING FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH.  BEHIND THE RAINFALL...THERE MAY BE SOME CLEARING
FOR LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY...AS OUR REGION BECOMES FULLY IN THE
STORM/S WARM SECTOR. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO REACH THE MID
50S TO MID 60S...WHICH IS 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE THE THE DOMINATE FEATURE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE EASTERN UNITED NEXT WEEK WITH NUMEROUS SHORT WAVES. IN THE
MEANWHILE THERE WILL BE RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST WHICH WILL
DAMPEN AS IT MOVES EASTWARD AS A TROUGH HEADS FOR THE WEST COAST
LATE IN THE WEEK. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK
ESPECIALLY AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. THE UNCERTAINTIES WILL ORIGINATE
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WHERE THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IS MODEL
GUIDANCE.

WE START OUT WITH SOME LINGERING PRECIPITATION AS LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WHICH PASSES WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST CONTINUES TO MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD
BECOME FAVORABLE IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW FOR LAKE EFFECT TO OCCUR
INTO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

IN THE MEANTIME...GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A SHORT WAVE ROTATING
ABOUT BASE OF THE DEEP TROUGH OVER NEAR THE GULF OF MEXICO COAST
TUESDAY WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST BY
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO HEAD NORTHEASTWARD
REMAINING WELL OFFSHORE. HOWEVER THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD
IN THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE LOW. THE ECMWF TRACKS THE LOW CLOSER
TO THE COAST THAN THE GFS AND BRINGS ITS PRECIPITATION SHIELD ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE GFS KEEP ITS PRECIPITATION
TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. FOLLOWING THE LEAD OF THE WEATHER PREDICTION
CENTER HAVE USED A BLENDED APPROACH. HAVE RUN WITH CHANCE POPS
ACROSS MY FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE
NEAR NORMAL WHICH MEANS WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN DURING THE DAY FOR SOME
AREAS.

THERE IS MUCH GREATER UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AS WE HEAD INTO
THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK...THANKSGIVING DAY AND FRIDAY. THE TIMING
OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES IN BOTH THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS
WILL HAVE BIG IMPACT ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER AND WHERE AND WHEN A
LOW FORMS AND HOW STRONG IT MAY GET. INDICATIONS ARE A LOW SHOULD
FORM SOMEWHERE OFF THE SOUTHEAST TO MID ATLANTIC COAST BY THURSDAY
NIGHT. HAVE RUN WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS/CLIMATOLOGICALLY FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY SINCE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IS SO HIGH.

AS FOR THANKSGIVING DAY...AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE WEATHER
SHOULD BE FAIR AS WE ARE BETWEEN SYSTEMS.

OVERALL GUIDANCE INDICATES TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY COOL AS THE
WEEK PROGRESSES WITH BELOW NORMAL READINGS EXPECTED BY THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT...AND MOVE
OFFSHORE EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. A WEAK DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF A
WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT MIXED PCPN TO THE REGION LATE
TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH THICKENING AND
LOWERING CLOUDS DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE
SKIES WILL CLEAR TONIGHT...WITH THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN
BETWEEN 10-15Z/SAT. THERE COULD BE SOME SPOTTY SNOW SHOWERS AROUND
FROM KALB NORTH AND EAST AFTER 20Z/SAT...AND THESE WERE ADDRESSED
WITH A VCSH FOR KALB/KGFL/KPSF FOR NOW.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SW TO W AT 4-10 KTS EARLY THIS
EVENING..AND THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 5 KTS
OR LESS AFTER 05Z/SAT. EXPECT THE WINDS TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST AT 8-12 KTS LATE TOMORROW MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME GUSTS CLOSE TO 20 KTS AT KALB.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

THERE WILL BE A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER FAR
WESTERN AREAS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED. A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL IMPACT THE REGION...MAINLY FOR
AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...FOR LATE TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW
NIGHT. BASIN AVERAGE LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF PRECIP WILL BE A
QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON AREA
RIVERS AND STREAMS. ALONG WITH A MILDER AIR MASS...A MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAINFALL...WILL
IMPACT THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR SO. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS








000
FXUS61 KOKX 212354
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
654 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES NEARLY OVERHEAD TONIGHT BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE
ON SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT THEN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH SUNDAY AND
LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN STALLS OFFSHORE THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE MAY RIDE ALONG THE FRONT AND
PASS TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY...WITH ANOTHER LOW POSSIBLY TRACKING
EAST FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A LARGE 1035 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS CENTERED OVER WVA. IT WILL
CONTINUE MVG SLOWLY ESEWD OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL CONT TO DECREASE FROM W TO E EARLY TONIGHT. SFC WINDS ARE
FCST TO DECOUPLE FROM THE UPPER WIND FLOW AND CAUSE STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. ANOTHER ...COLD... NIGHT IS IN STORE
FOR THEM LOCAL AREA.

USED A BLEND OF MET/MAV MOS GUIDANCE TO START...BUT THEN DROPPED
LOWS FROM 5-7 DEGREES ACROSS THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN CT...AND ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND.
FLY IN THE OINTMENT COULD BE SOME WEAK H5 SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AFTER 06Z SATURDAY. ANY CLOUDS THAT
DEVELOP WILL INHIBIT RADIATIONAL COOLING...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
BE WARMER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. ALSO...WITH SFC DEW POINTS
MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS...IT IS POSSIBLE THE
CURRENT OVERNIGHT LOW TEMP FORECAST MAY NOT BE COLD ENOUGH IN SOME
SPOTS.

THE URBAN HEAT ISLAND EFFECT WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN NYC IN
THE MID TO UPPER 20S. OTHERWISE...LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER
TEENS TO AROUND 20 FOR MOST COASTAL AREAS...AND AS LOW AS THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THESE TEMPS ARE
15-20 AND AS LOW AS 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MOSTLY SUNNY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY SATURDAY AS HIGH PRES CONTINUES
TO DEPART. SW FLOW WILL USHER A MILDER AIR MASS INTO THE REGION
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA...AND IN THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS. THESE
TEMPS...HOWEVER...ARE STILL 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY AND AT NIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. SOME LIGHT...OVERRUNNING
PRECIP WILL DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. BEST FOCUS WILL
BE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ZONES WHERE POPS WILL BE LOW CHANCE...AND
WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE MOST ELSEWHERE. WITH SFC TEMPS BELOW
FREEZING ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF NE NJ...THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY...SOUTHERN CT AND THE PINE BARRENS OF EASTERN LONG
ISLAND...PTYPE COULD BE FREEZING RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES AND
FREEZING RAIN/RAIN FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. NYC/LONG ISLAND SHOULD
STAY AS PLAIN RAIN...WITH SOME FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE FOR THE PINE
BARRENS OF LONG ISLAND.

LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S INLAND
AND IN THE MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS NYC/LONG ISLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EARLY SUNDAY...WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES NORTH OF THE
REGION...WITH UPPER RIDGING QUICKLY BUILDING DURING THE DAY. THIS IS
IN RESPONSE TO DIGGING MID WEST TROUGH.

THE RIDGE GIVES WAY TO SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE THAT TRACKS
NORTHEAST...PASSING JUST TO THE WEST OF THE AREA EARLY MONDAY.
MEANWHILE...MAIN TROUGH AMPLIFIES AND CLOSES OFF ACROSS THE UPPER
MID WEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS CLOSED LOW WEAKENS AND LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEK AS MAIN TROUGH SLOWLY MAKES EASTWARD
PROGRESS. TROUGH AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

AT THE SURFACE...A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH SUNDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE WARM FRONT
MOVES THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AS LOCAL AREA BECOMES WARM SECTORED. THE
DEEP LOW PRESSURE PASSES ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH BY TUESDAY. THIS FRONT SETTLES EAST OF THE AREA MID WEEK AS
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES ALONG IT...LIKELY PASSING JUST
SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK. BY THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE AND FRONT TO
THE WEST APPROACHES. WITH UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVERHEAD LATE
THURSDAY/FRIDAY...SFC LOW PRESSURE MAY INTENSIFY OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY.

AS FOR WEATHER...ANY LINGERING LIGHT RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN ENDS
SUNDAY. TEMPS WARM INTO THE LOWER 50S. WITH SOUTH
WINDS...TEMPERATURES REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD SUNDAY NIGHT FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR...THEN WARM INTO THE 60S MONDAY AS AREA BECOMES WARM
SECTORED.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO GRADUALLY FALL
BACK CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS BY MID TO LATE WEEK.

POPS AND WEATHER WILL DEPEND ON EVENTUAL PLACEMENT OF LOW PRESSURE
MID WEEK AND AGAIN LATE WEEK. KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE FOR
NOW...WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITIES EAST OF NYC. WEATHER TYPE WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND PASSES SOUTH OF
THE AREA SATURDAY.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...WITH A MID LEVEL
DECK MOVING IN LATE SAT AFT/EVE.

WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST AND WILL BE QUITE LIGHT LATE TONIGHT.
SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT WITH G20KT AFTER 14-15Z
SATURDAY.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: EARLY EVENING...AROUND 310 MAGNETIC WITH AN
OCCASIONAL G20KT.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: EARLY EVENING...AROUND 310 MAGNETIC.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: EARLY EVENING...AROUND 310 MAGNETIC WITH AN
OCCASIONAL G20KT.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUN THROUGH WED...
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...VFR. BRIEF MVFR CIG POSSIBLE AT KSWF SAT EVE.
.SUN NIGHT-MON...BECOMING MVFR/IFR. POSSIBLY SUB-IFR. RA AND FG
WITH LLWS POSSIBLE.
.MON NIGHT-TUE...VFR.
.WED...MAINLY VFR...ALTHOUGH POSSIBLE RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX MAY
IMPACT THE AREA...ESPECIALLY EAST OF NYC METRO.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY/SCA FOR EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND...THE SOUTH
SHORE INLAND BAYS AND PECONIC AND GARDINERS BAY WAS EXTENDED UNTIL
10 PM FOR WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT.

OTHERWISE...THE SCA FOR THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS FROM FIRE ISLAND
EAST REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM SATURDAY.

TRANQUIL CONDS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING
OVER THE WATERS. THAT HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY...AND THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SCA CONDS LIKELY FOR AT
LEAST THE OCEAN WATERS LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

WESTERLY WINDS SHIFT TOWARD THE SW SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES. SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AHEAD
OF AND THEN BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH A SLIGHT SHIFT FROM S/SE TO S/SW.

THEN WINDS SHIFT AGAIN BACK TO THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THESE WINDS TURN TOWARD THE NW TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE
WATERS MAY TURN THE WINDS TOWARD THE N/NW LATE WEDNESDAY.

WINDS REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. IN FACT GALES ARE
POSSIBLE MONDAY BEHIND THE WARM FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT.

WINDS DO DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BRIEFLY AS THE HIGH BUILDS.

SEAS SHOULD REMAIN ROUGH THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY CONDS THROUGH SATURDAY...AND ONLY LIGHT PRECIP POSSIBLE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-
     340-345.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FIG/MPS
NEAR TERM...GC/MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...GC/FIG/MPS
HYDROLOGY...FIG/MPS






000
FXUS61 KOKX 212354
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
654 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES NEARLY OVERHEAD TONIGHT BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE
ON SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT THEN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH SUNDAY AND
LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN STALLS OFFSHORE THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE MAY RIDE ALONG THE FRONT AND
PASS TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY...WITH ANOTHER LOW POSSIBLY TRACKING
EAST FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A LARGE 1035 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS CENTERED OVER WVA. IT WILL
CONTINUE MVG SLOWLY ESEWD OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL CONT TO DECREASE FROM W TO E EARLY TONIGHT. SFC WINDS ARE
FCST TO DECOUPLE FROM THE UPPER WIND FLOW AND CAUSE STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. ANOTHER ...COLD... NIGHT IS IN STORE
FOR THEM LOCAL AREA.

USED A BLEND OF MET/MAV MOS GUIDANCE TO START...BUT THEN DROPPED
LOWS FROM 5-7 DEGREES ACROSS THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN CT...AND ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND.
FLY IN THE OINTMENT COULD BE SOME WEAK H5 SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AFTER 06Z SATURDAY. ANY CLOUDS THAT
DEVELOP WILL INHIBIT RADIATIONAL COOLING...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
BE WARMER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. ALSO...WITH SFC DEW POINTS
MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS...IT IS POSSIBLE THE
CURRENT OVERNIGHT LOW TEMP FORECAST MAY NOT BE COLD ENOUGH IN SOME
SPOTS.

THE URBAN HEAT ISLAND EFFECT WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN NYC IN
THE MID TO UPPER 20S. OTHERWISE...LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER
TEENS TO AROUND 20 FOR MOST COASTAL AREAS...AND AS LOW AS THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THESE TEMPS ARE
15-20 AND AS LOW AS 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MOSTLY SUNNY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY SATURDAY AS HIGH PRES CONTINUES
TO DEPART. SW FLOW WILL USHER A MILDER AIR MASS INTO THE REGION
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA...AND IN THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS. THESE
TEMPS...HOWEVER...ARE STILL 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY AND AT NIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. SOME LIGHT...OVERRUNNING
PRECIP WILL DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. BEST FOCUS WILL
BE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ZONES WHERE POPS WILL BE LOW CHANCE...AND
WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE MOST ELSEWHERE. WITH SFC TEMPS BELOW
FREEZING ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF NE NJ...THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY...SOUTHERN CT AND THE PINE BARRENS OF EASTERN LONG
ISLAND...PTYPE COULD BE FREEZING RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES AND
FREEZING RAIN/RAIN FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. NYC/LONG ISLAND SHOULD
STAY AS PLAIN RAIN...WITH SOME FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE FOR THE PINE
BARRENS OF LONG ISLAND.

LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S INLAND
AND IN THE MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS NYC/LONG ISLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EARLY SUNDAY...WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES NORTH OF THE
REGION...WITH UPPER RIDGING QUICKLY BUILDING DURING THE DAY. THIS IS
IN RESPONSE TO DIGGING MID WEST TROUGH.

THE RIDGE GIVES WAY TO SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE THAT TRACKS
NORTHEAST...PASSING JUST TO THE WEST OF THE AREA EARLY MONDAY.
MEANWHILE...MAIN TROUGH AMPLIFIES AND CLOSES OFF ACROSS THE UPPER
MID WEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS CLOSED LOW WEAKENS AND LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEK AS MAIN TROUGH SLOWLY MAKES EASTWARD
PROGRESS. TROUGH AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

AT THE SURFACE...A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH SUNDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE WARM FRONT
MOVES THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AS LOCAL AREA BECOMES WARM SECTORED. THE
DEEP LOW PRESSURE PASSES ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH BY TUESDAY. THIS FRONT SETTLES EAST OF THE AREA MID WEEK AS
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES ALONG IT...LIKELY PASSING JUST
SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK. BY THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE AND FRONT TO
THE WEST APPROACHES. WITH UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVERHEAD LATE
THURSDAY/FRIDAY...SFC LOW PRESSURE MAY INTENSIFY OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY.

AS FOR WEATHER...ANY LINGERING LIGHT RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN ENDS
SUNDAY. TEMPS WARM INTO THE LOWER 50S. WITH SOUTH
WINDS...TEMPERATURES REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD SUNDAY NIGHT FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR...THEN WARM INTO THE 60S MONDAY AS AREA BECOMES WARM
SECTORED.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO GRADUALLY FALL
BACK CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS BY MID TO LATE WEEK.

POPS AND WEATHER WILL DEPEND ON EVENTUAL PLACEMENT OF LOW PRESSURE
MID WEEK AND AGAIN LATE WEEK. KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE FOR
NOW...WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITIES EAST OF NYC. WEATHER TYPE WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND PASSES SOUTH OF
THE AREA SATURDAY.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...WITH A MID LEVEL
DECK MOVING IN LATE SAT AFT/EVE.

WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST AND WILL BE QUITE LIGHT LATE TONIGHT.
SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT WITH G20KT AFTER 14-15Z
SATURDAY.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: EARLY EVENING...AROUND 310 MAGNETIC WITH AN
OCCASIONAL G20KT.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: EARLY EVENING...AROUND 310 MAGNETIC.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: EARLY EVENING...AROUND 310 MAGNETIC WITH AN
OCCASIONAL G20KT.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUN THROUGH WED...
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...VFR. BRIEF MVFR CIG POSSIBLE AT KSWF SAT EVE.
.SUN NIGHT-MON...BECOMING MVFR/IFR. POSSIBLY SUB-IFR. RA AND FG
WITH LLWS POSSIBLE.
.MON NIGHT-TUE...VFR.
.WED...MAINLY VFR...ALTHOUGH POSSIBLE RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX MAY
IMPACT THE AREA...ESPECIALLY EAST OF NYC METRO.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY/SCA FOR EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND...THE SOUTH
SHORE INLAND BAYS AND PECONIC AND GARDINERS BAY WAS EXTENDED UNTIL
10 PM FOR WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT.

OTHERWISE...THE SCA FOR THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS FROM FIRE ISLAND
EAST REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM SATURDAY.

TRANQUIL CONDS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING
OVER THE WATERS. THAT HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY...AND THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SCA CONDS LIKELY FOR AT
LEAST THE OCEAN WATERS LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

WESTERLY WINDS SHIFT TOWARD THE SW SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES. SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AHEAD
OF AND THEN BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH A SLIGHT SHIFT FROM S/SE TO S/SW.

THEN WINDS SHIFT AGAIN BACK TO THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THESE WINDS TURN TOWARD THE NW TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE
WATERS MAY TURN THE WINDS TOWARD THE N/NW LATE WEDNESDAY.

WINDS REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. IN FACT GALES ARE
POSSIBLE MONDAY BEHIND THE WARM FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT.

WINDS DO DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BRIEFLY AS THE HIGH BUILDS.

SEAS SHOULD REMAIN ROUGH THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY CONDS THROUGH SATURDAY...AND ONLY LIGHT PRECIP POSSIBLE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-
     340-345.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FIG/MPS
NEAR TERM...GC/MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...GC/FIG/MPS
HYDROLOGY...FIG/MPS







000
FXUS61 KBOX 212347
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
647 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

AFTER A DRY BUT VERY COLD NIGHT...TEMPERATURES MODERATE SOME
SATURDAY ON GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A
SIGNIFICANT WARM UP SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY...BUT WITH A
PERIOD OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. QUIET FOR TUESDAY BUT
CONDITIONS MAY CHANGE BY WEDNESDAY WITH THE THREAT OF A STORM
SYSTEM. TURNING COLDER INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...

7 PM UPDATE...

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE W ALLOWING WINDS TO
GRADUALLY RELAX OUT OF THE N/NW BENEATH CLEAR CONDITIONS. EXPECT A
NICE SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING ACROSS THE INTERIOR AS WINDS
CONTINUE TO DECOUPLE RESULTING IN LOWS INTO THE TEENS...SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS NW MA AND SW NH...WELL BELOW-NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. WARMEST CONDITIONS ALONG THE SHORES AND WITHIN URBAN CENTERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC ALLOWING FOR STRONG MID
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION TO DEVELOP. THE RESPONSE WILL BE AN INCREASE
IN MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS AS THE DAY WEARS ON...BUT IT WILL
REMAIN DRY GIVEN THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

DESPITE THE WARM ADVECTION ALOFT...IT WILL TAKE TIME FOR THAT TO BE
COMPLETELY REALIZED AT THE SURFACE. WHILE IT WILL BE MILDER THAN
TODAY...HIGH TEMPS WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S WITH SOME MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S ON THE CAPE
AND ISLANDS. HOWEVER...EXPECTING SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30
MPH TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND PERHAPS A BIT STRONGER ALONG
THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS WILL STILL MAKE IT FEEL
RATHER CHILLY OUTSIDE FOR NOVEMBER STANDARDS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...

A MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SAT NIGHT.
THERE STILL SHOULD BE ENOUGH FORCING TO BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SCATTERED LIGHT PRECIPITATION. WHILE IT CERTAINLY WILL BE TOO
WARM ALOFT FOR ANY SNOW...THE BIGGEST QUESTION IS WILL IT BE COLD
ENOUGH AT THE SURFACE FOR SOME POCKETS OF SPOTTY LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN ACROSS THE INTERIOR. ITS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE AND WILL NEED TO
BE WATCHED...BUT ITS NOT AN IDEAL SETUP. THERE IS A LOT OF WIND
OFF THE DECK AND PROBABLY ENOUGH TO PREVENT MOST AREAS FROM
DECOUPLING. GIVEN WERE +4C AT 850 MB SOME OF THIS MILDER AIR WILL
BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN. THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL LIGHT ICING
THREAT...BUT STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED POCKETS IN THE
DEEPER VALLEY LOCATIONS. LOW TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE UPPER 20S
TO MIDDLE 30S DURING THE EVENING...BUT SHOULD RISE SOME OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - TURNING WARMER AND WET MONDAY
 - A POSSIBLE MIDWEEK STORM...ESPECIALLY FOR SE NEW ENGLAND
 - LOOKING COLDER INTO THANKSGIVING

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL CONSENSUS...

TRENDING +AO/NAO WITH NEAR-NEUTRAL PNA SUGGESTS A MORE PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN AND MILD. NO SURPRISE TO SEE A LACK OF DEEP CLOSED-LOW H5
DISTURBANCES...THOUGH AN ACTIVE PATTERN WITH ABUNDANCE OF PACIFIC-
ORIGIN WAVES MAINTAINING TROUGHING BETWEEN SECTORS OF ABOVE-AVERAGE
OCEAN TEMPERATURES OVER THE NE-PACIFIC AND NW-ATLANTIC.

SOME OF THOSE WAVES ARE WELL OUT IN THE PACIFIC AND HAVE NOT EVEN
BEEN SAMPLED. THE WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WINTER-STORM POTENTIAL
FOR THE MIDWEEK / THANKSGIVING PERIOD IS JUST S OF THE FURTHEST E
ALEUTAIN ISLANDS OF ALASKA. NOTING THIS...HAVE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE
THROUGH EARLY-NEXT WEEK WITH THE FORECAST...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE FOR A
POTENTIAL MIDWEEK STORM. WILL HIT UP THE DETAILS BELOW.

SO FOR SUNDAY...

CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK TROUGH DISTURBANCE.
DISSIPATING BENEATH A MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE / SUBSIDENCE. BENEATH
THE WARM-SECTOR AND RETURN S-FLOW ROUND THE HIGH PUSHING OFF INTO
THE ATLANTIC...H925 TEMPERATURES NEARLY +10C...MAY SEE HIGHS WARM
WELL INTO THE 50S WITH ANY SUNSHINE.

AS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...

WARM-FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING BROADSCALE LIFT AHEAD OF A DEEPENING LOW
ACROSS THE C-CONUS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION BECOMES THE FOCUS
FOR RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. NON-DIURNAL WARMING TREND OVERNIGHT. ALL-
RAIN EVENT. MAIN CONCERNS ARE WITH BOTH WINDS AND RAIN.

WITH WINDS: STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET CENTERED AROUND MONDAY MORNING WITH
WINDS 1-2 KFT AGL MODEL-CONSENSUS AVERAGING AROUND 50 MPH /45 KTS/.
SUGGESTED BOUNDARY-LAYER DECOUPLING BENEATH MUCH WARMER AIR BETWEEN
H925-85. BUT IF 2M TEMPERATURES ARE WARMER AS FORECAST FOR SUNDAY
COULD BE WARMER SUNDAY NIGHT AIDING IN LOW-LEVEL MIXING. ALSO NEED
TO CONSIDER ANY HEAVY RAIN WHICH COULD ALSO AID WITH DRAGGING FASTER
MOMENTUM TO THE SURFACE. OVERALL: MAIN CONCERN ACROSS SE NEW ENGLAND
AND HIGH TERRAIN ABOVE 1 KFT. WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE NECESSARY. CIPS
ANALOG GUIDANCE HAS JUST ABOVE 50-PERCENT FOR WINDS > 35 MPH.

WITH RAIN: BROADSCALE ASCENT OF THE WARM-CONVEYER-BELT WITH PWATS UP
TO 1.5-INCHES AND ANOMALOUS HIGH-THETAE AIR. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
NOSE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET TO THE PARENT WARM-FRONT. EXPECT A BROAD
NW-SE BAND OF RAIN WITH PERHAPS AN EMBEDDED LINE OF HEAVIER RAIN. IT
MOVES THROUGH NOTABLY QUICK. MODEL-CONSENSUS AVERAGE RAIN AMOUNTS
ARE AROUND 0.50 - 0.75 INCHES. AM NOT EXPECTING ANY FLOOD ISSUES.

INTO MONDAY...

RAINS FOR THE MORNING...IMPROVING AFTERNOON. IF WE CLEAR AS H925
TEMPERATURES WARM TO +14C THEN WE COULD POSSIBLY SEE HIGHS INTO THE
MID- TO UPPER-60S /+18C/ POSSIBLY TO NEAR 70. MODEL-CONSENSUS H925
WINDS AVERAGE AROUND 45 MPH /40 KTS/ AND WITH WARMER CONDITIONS
COULD SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR MIXING OUT TO H9 AND MOMENTUM MIX-DOWN.
WILL HINT AT THIS IN THE FORECAST...BUT MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

WILL GO WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS...BUT THE MAIN PUMP OF MOISTURE
SHOULD BE WELL OFFSHORE. OTHERWISE THE MAIN COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO
THE DEEPENING LOW LIFTING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION SWEEPS
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. EXPECTING DRY AND COOLER WEATHER FOR TUESDAY...
PERHAPS CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...

JUST TOO EARLY TO SAY. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS VARY
CONSIDERABLY WITH SURFACE LOW CENTERS AROUND THE ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH
KEY UPON A LOW SE OF THE 40N / 70W BENCHMARK AROUND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HAVE CONCERNS FOR SE NEW ENGLAND WHICH COULD SEE THE GREATEST IMPACT
WHILE NOTING A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER S-CANADA /WITH THE CENTER
OVER THE C-CONUS/. THE GFS-UPGRADED /T1534/ IS A FAR OUTLIER AND IS
NOT CONSIDERED WITH THIS FORECAST.

EVALUATING SYNOPTICS...THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A COASTAL STORM
BUT MORE OF A WAVE LOW ALONG THE OFFSHORE STALLED FRONT. AS BEEN THE
CASE THIS YEAR...COLD AIR HAS BEEN PLUNGING INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS
BUT ITS TRUE BITE REMAINS MAINLY N/W OF OUR REGION. DO HAVE SOME
CONFIDENCE THAT THE WAVE LOW WILL HUG CLOSER TO THE COAST. THEN IT
COMES TO BREAKING DOWN TIMING / ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS / THERMAL FIELDS
WHICH RIGHT NOW ARE AGAIN TOO EARLY TO DIAGNOSE. THERE HAS BEEN A
CONSISTENT SIGNAL. STORM BEARS WATCHING.

EXPECTING A RETURN OF ARCTIC AIR BEHIND WHATEVER MIDWEEK SYSTEM THAT
MAY EMERGE. DAY 6-8 CIPS ANALOGS HAVE HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW-
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE SE-CONUS INTO THE OHIO-RIVER VALLEY
CENTERED AROUND THE LATE-THANKSGIVING WEEK PERIOD. EC ENSEMBLES AT
H85 HAVE THE FREEZING MARK PLUNGING TO NEARLY THE GULF COAST...WITH
-10C AIR INTO NEW ENGLAND BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

0Z UPDATE...

VFR OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY. LIGHTS WINDS ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH
BREEZY W/NW FLOW ALONG THE SHORES WILL ENHANCE SATURDAY OUT OF THE
SW WITH LIKELY GUSTS 20-30 KTS BY AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY UP TO 35
KTS AT TIMES /ESPECIALLY OVER THE CAPE AND ISLANDS/.

LOW-END VFR SATURDAY NIGHT. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE WITH
ANY -SHRA. ISOLATED POCKETS OF -FZRA POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
IF ANY ICING IT IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIGHT. WINDS REMAINING AN
ISSUE WITH SW-GUSTS 20-30 KTS...POSSIBLY UP TO 35 KTS...MAINLY
ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN OF E/SE NEW ENGLAND.

KBOS TERMINAL...WILL HOLD VFR AND KEEP SW-WINDS AROUND 240 BRISK
THROUGHOUT BEGINNING SATURDAY. PERHAPS ISSUES ON 15/33. DO NOT
ANTICIPATE ANY -FZRA AT THE TERMINAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TERMINAL...IF ANY THREAT OF -FZRA ANTICIPATING IMPACTS AROUND
0-6Z SUNDAY /7 PM SATURDAY TO 1 AM SUNDAY/. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

INITIAL -SHRA EARLY SUNDAY WITH LOW-END VFR FOLLOWED BY SOME BRIEF
IMPROVEMENT. WINDS TURNING S.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CONDITIONS DETERIORATE MVFR-LIFR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
WITH +RA AND STRONG S-WINDS WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS POSSIBLE...
OTHERWISE LLWS IMPACTS WITH 50 KT S-WINDS 2 KFT AGL. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE BY MIDDAY...BUT COULD SEE CONTINUED SW-WINDS AROUND 25 KTS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

W-FLOW WITH MAINLY VFR.

WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

AN OFFSHORE STORM SYSTEM COULD BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ESPECIALLY
TO THE SE-TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

7 PM UPDATE...

WILL ALLOW THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO DROP ON BOSTON HARBOR AND
NARRAGANSETT BAY...BUT PREVAIL ALL OTHER WATERS TOWARDS SATURDAY
MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION ALLOWING WINDS TO
GRADUALLY RELAX OUT OF THE W/NW.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES E ALLOWING FOR A FAST-FLOWING RETURN SW-FLOW
OF AIR OVER THE WATERS. COLDER AIR OVER WATER WATERS...EXPECT SW-
GUSTS POSSIBLY EXCEEDING GALE FORCE LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT.

GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE THREAT OF GUSTS OVER THE PERIOD OF
35 KTS. SEAS LIKELY BUILDING 6 TO 9 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE S/SE-WATERS. WILL ALLOW THE OVERNIGHT SHIFT TO
EVALUATE AS TO WHETHER TO GO WITH GALE WARNINGS OR HIGH-END
SMALL-CRAFT ADVISORIES.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CONDITIONS IMPROVING AS SW-WINDS TURN S AND RELAX. WILL SEE WAVE
ACTION DISSIPATE BELOW SMALL-CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CONDITIONS DETERIORATE INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH RAIN OVER THE WATERS
AND EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS. VISIBILITY IMPACTS POSSIBLE. WINDS
INCREASING OUT OF THE S. GUSTS EXCEEDING GALE FORCE APPEAR LIKELY.
WAVES SUBSEQUENTLY INCREASING TO 10 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WINDS TURNING SW REMAINING BLUSTERY WITH GUSTS EXCEEDING 25 KTS.
WAVES MAINTAINED WITH HEIGHTS OF 8 TO 10 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS.

WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

AN OFFSHORE STORM SYSTEM COULD BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE
WATERS YET DETAILS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
     FOR ANZ231>235-237-250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ232>235-
     237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ231-251-
     255-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-254.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANK/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...FRANK/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...FRANK/SIPPRELL
MARINE...FRANK/SIPPRELL



000
FXUS61 KBOX 212347
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
647 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

AFTER A DRY BUT VERY COLD NIGHT...TEMPERATURES MODERATE SOME
SATURDAY ON GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A
SIGNIFICANT WARM UP SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY...BUT WITH A
PERIOD OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. QUIET FOR TUESDAY BUT
CONDITIONS MAY CHANGE BY WEDNESDAY WITH THE THREAT OF A STORM
SYSTEM. TURNING COLDER INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...

7 PM UPDATE...

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE W ALLOWING WINDS TO
GRADUALLY RELAX OUT OF THE N/NW BENEATH CLEAR CONDITIONS. EXPECT A
NICE SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING ACROSS THE INTERIOR AS WINDS
CONTINUE TO DECOUPLE RESULTING IN LOWS INTO THE TEENS...SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS NW MA AND SW NH...WELL BELOW-NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. WARMEST CONDITIONS ALONG THE SHORES AND WITHIN URBAN CENTERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC ALLOWING FOR STRONG MID
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION TO DEVELOP. THE RESPONSE WILL BE AN INCREASE
IN MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS AS THE DAY WEARS ON...BUT IT WILL
REMAIN DRY GIVEN THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

DESPITE THE WARM ADVECTION ALOFT...IT WILL TAKE TIME FOR THAT TO BE
COMPLETELY REALIZED AT THE SURFACE. WHILE IT WILL BE MILDER THAN
TODAY...HIGH TEMPS WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S WITH SOME MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S ON THE CAPE
AND ISLANDS. HOWEVER...EXPECTING SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30
MPH TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND PERHAPS A BIT STRONGER ALONG
THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS WILL STILL MAKE IT FEEL
RATHER CHILLY OUTSIDE FOR NOVEMBER STANDARDS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...

A MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SAT NIGHT.
THERE STILL SHOULD BE ENOUGH FORCING TO BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SCATTERED LIGHT PRECIPITATION. WHILE IT CERTAINLY WILL BE TOO
WARM ALOFT FOR ANY SNOW...THE BIGGEST QUESTION IS WILL IT BE COLD
ENOUGH AT THE SURFACE FOR SOME POCKETS OF SPOTTY LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN ACROSS THE INTERIOR. ITS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE AND WILL NEED TO
BE WATCHED...BUT ITS NOT AN IDEAL SETUP. THERE IS A LOT OF WIND
OFF THE DECK AND PROBABLY ENOUGH TO PREVENT MOST AREAS FROM
DECOUPLING. GIVEN WERE +4C AT 850 MB SOME OF THIS MILDER AIR WILL
BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN. THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL LIGHT ICING
THREAT...BUT STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED POCKETS IN THE
DEEPER VALLEY LOCATIONS. LOW TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE UPPER 20S
TO MIDDLE 30S DURING THE EVENING...BUT SHOULD RISE SOME OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - TURNING WARMER AND WET MONDAY
 - A POSSIBLE MIDWEEK STORM...ESPECIALLY FOR SE NEW ENGLAND
 - LOOKING COLDER INTO THANKSGIVING

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL CONSENSUS...

TRENDING +AO/NAO WITH NEAR-NEUTRAL PNA SUGGESTS A MORE PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN AND MILD. NO SURPRISE TO SEE A LACK OF DEEP CLOSED-LOW H5
DISTURBANCES...THOUGH AN ACTIVE PATTERN WITH ABUNDANCE OF PACIFIC-
ORIGIN WAVES MAINTAINING TROUGHING BETWEEN SECTORS OF ABOVE-AVERAGE
OCEAN TEMPERATURES OVER THE NE-PACIFIC AND NW-ATLANTIC.

SOME OF THOSE WAVES ARE WELL OUT IN THE PACIFIC AND HAVE NOT EVEN
BEEN SAMPLED. THE WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WINTER-STORM POTENTIAL
FOR THE MIDWEEK / THANKSGIVING PERIOD IS JUST S OF THE FURTHEST E
ALEUTAIN ISLANDS OF ALASKA. NOTING THIS...HAVE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE
THROUGH EARLY-NEXT WEEK WITH THE FORECAST...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE FOR A
POTENTIAL MIDWEEK STORM. WILL HIT UP THE DETAILS BELOW.

SO FOR SUNDAY...

CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK TROUGH DISTURBANCE.
DISSIPATING BENEATH A MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE / SUBSIDENCE. BENEATH
THE WARM-SECTOR AND RETURN S-FLOW ROUND THE HIGH PUSHING OFF INTO
THE ATLANTIC...H925 TEMPERATURES NEARLY +10C...MAY SEE HIGHS WARM
WELL INTO THE 50S WITH ANY SUNSHINE.

AS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...

WARM-FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING BROADSCALE LIFT AHEAD OF A DEEPENING LOW
ACROSS THE C-CONUS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION BECOMES THE FOCUS
FOR RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. NON-DIURNAL WARMING TREND OVERNIGHT. ALL-
RAIN EVENT. MAIN CONCERNS ARE WITH BOTH WINDS AND RAIN.

WITH WINDS: STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET CENTERED AROUND MONDAY MORNING WITH
WINDS 1-2 KFT AGL MODEL-CONSENSUS AVERAGING AROUND 50 MPH /45 KTS/.
SUGGESTED BOUNDARY-LAYER DECOUPLING BENEATH MUCH WARMER AIR BETWEEN
H925-85. BUT IF 2M TEMPERATURES ARE WARMER AS FORECAST FOR SUNDAY
COULD BE WARMER SUNDAY NIGHT AIDING IN LOW-LEVEL MIXING. ALSO NEED
TO CONSIDER ANY HEAVY RAIN WHICH COULD ALSO AID WITH DRAGGING FASTER
MOMENTUM TO THE SURFACE. OVERALL: MAIN CONCERN ACROSS SE NEW ENGLAND
AND HIGH TERRAIN ABOVE 1 KFT. WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE NECESSARY. CIPS
ANALOG GUIDANCE HAS JUST ABOVE 50-PERCENT FOR WINDS > 35 MPH.

WITH RAIN: BROADSCALE ASCENT OF THE WARM-CONVEYER-BELT WITH PWATS UP
TO 1.5-INCHES AND ANOMALOUS HIGH-THETAE AIR. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
NOSE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET TO THE PARENT WARM-FRONT. EXPECT A BROAD
NW-SE BAND OF RAIN WITH PERHAPS AN EMBEDDED LINE OF HEAVIER RAIN. IT
MOVES THROUGH NOTABLY QUICK. MODEL-CONSENSUS AVERAGE RAIN AMOUNTS
ARE AROUND 0.50 - 0.75 INCHES. AM NOT EXPECTING ANY FLOOD ISSUES.

INTO MONDAY...

RAINS FOR THE MORNING...IMPROVING AFTERNOON. IF WE CLEAR AS H925
TEMPERATURES WARM TO +14C THEN WE COULD POSSIBLY SEE HIGHS INTO THE
MID- TO UPPER-60S /+18C/ POSSIBLY TO NEAR 70. MODEL-CONSENSUS H925
WINDS AVERAGE AROUND 45 MPH /40 KTS/ AND WITH WARMER CONDITIONS
COULD SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR MIXING OUT TO H9 AND MOMENTUM MIX-DOWN.
WILL HINT AT THIS IN THE FORECAST...BUT MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

WILL GO WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS...BUT THE MAIN PUMP OF MOISTURE
SHOULD BE WELL OFFSHORE. OTHERWISE THE MAIN COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO
THE DEEPENING LOW LIFTING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION SWEEPS
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. EXPECTING DRY AND COOLER WEATHER FOR TUESDAY...
PERHAPS CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...

JUST TOO EARLY TO SAY. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS VARY
CONSIDERABLY WITH SURFACE LOW CENTERS AROUND THE ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH
KEY UPON A LOW SE OF THE 40N / 70W BENCHMARK AROUND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HAVE CONCERNS FOR SE NEW ENGLAND WHICH COULD SEE THE GREATEST IMPACT
WHILE NOTING A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER S-CANADA /WITH THE CENTER
OVER THE C-CONUS/. THE GFS-UPGRADED /T1534/ IS A FAR OUTLIER AND IS
NOT CONSIDERED WITH THIS FORECAST.

EVALUATING SYNOPTICS...THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A COASTAL STORM
BUT MORE OF A WAVE LOW ALONG THE OFFSHORE STALLED FRONT. AS BEEN THE
CASE THIS YEAR...COLD AIR HAS BEEN PLUNGING INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS
BUT ITS TRUE BITE REMAINS MAINLY N/W OF OUR REGION. DO HAVE SOME
CONFIDENCE THAT THE WAVE LOW WILL HUG CLOSER TO THE COAST. THEN IT
COMES TO BREAKING DOWN TIMING / ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS / THERMAL FIELDS
WHICH RIGHT NOW ARE AGAIN TOO EARLY TO DIAGNOSE. THERE HAS BEEN A
CONSISTENT SIGNAL. STORM BEARS WATCHING.

EXPECTING A RETURN OF ARCTIC AIR BEHIND WHATEVER MIDWEEK SYSTEM THAT
MAY EMERGE. DAY 6-8 CIPS ANALOGS HAVE HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW-
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE SE-CONUS INTO THE OHIO-RIVER VALLEY
CENTERED AROUND THE LATE-THANKSGIVING WEEK PERIOD. EC ENSEMBLES AT
H85 HAVE THE FREEZING MARK PLUNGING TO NEARLY THE GULF COAST...WITH
-10C AIR INTO NEW ENGLAND BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

0Z UPDATE...

VFR OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY. LIGHTS WINDS ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH
BREEZY W/NW FLOW ALONG THE SHORES WILL ENHANCE SATURDAY OUT OF THE
SW WITH LIKELY GUSTS 20-30 KTS BY AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY UP TO 35
KTS AT TIMES /ESPECIALLY OVER THE CAPE AND ISLANDS/.

LOW-END VFR SATURDAY NIGHT. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE WITH
ANY -SHRA. ISOLATED POCKETS OF -FZRA POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
IF ANY ICING IT IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIGHT. WINDS REMAINING AN
ISSUE WITH SW-GUSTS 20-30 KTS...POSSIBLY UP TO 35 KTS...MAINLY
ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN OF E/SE NEW ENGLAND.

KBOS TERMINAL...WILL HOLD VFR AND KEEP SW-WINDS AROUND 240 BRISK
THROUGHOUT BEGINNING SATURDAY. PERHAPS ISSUES ON 15/33. DO NOT
ANTICIPATE ANY -FZRA AT THE TERMINAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TERMINAL...IF ANY THREAT OF -FZRA ANTICIPATING IMPACTS AROUND
0-6Z SUNDAY /7 PM SATURDAY TO 1 AM SUNDAY/. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

INITIAL -SHRA EARLY SUNDAY WITH LOW-END VFR FOLLOWED BY SOME BRIEF
IMPROVEMENT. WINDS TURNING S.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CONDITIONS DETERIORATE MVFR-LIFR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
WITH +RA AND STRONG S-WINDS WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS POSSIBLE...
OTHERWISE LLWS IMPACTS WITH 50 KT S-WINDS 2 KFT AGL. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE BY MIDDAY...BUT COULD SEE CONTINUED SW-WINDS AROUND 25 KTS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

W-FLOW WITH MAINLY VFR.

WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

AN OFFSHORE STORM SYSTEM COULD BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ESPECIALLY
TO THE SE-TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

7 PM UPDATE...

WILL ALLOW THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO DROP ON BOSTON HARBOR AND
NARRAGANSETT BAY...BUT PREVAIL ALL OTHER WATERS TOWARDS SATURDAY
MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION ALLOWING WINDS TO
GRADUALLY RELAX OUT OF THE W/NW.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES E ALLOWING FOR A FAST-FLOWING RETURN SW-FLOW
OF AIR OVER THE WATERS. COLDER AIR OVER WATER WATERS...EXPECT SW-
GUSTS POSSIBLY EXCEEDING GALE FORCE LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT.

GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE THREAT OF GUSTS OVER THE PERIOD OF
35 KTS. SEAS LIKELY BUILDING 6 TO 9 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE S/SE-WATERS. WILL ALLOW THE OVERNIGHT SHIFT TO
EVALUATE AS TO WHETHER TO GO WITH GALE WARNINGS OR HIGH-END
SMALL-CRAFT ADVISORIES.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CONDITIONS IMPROVING AS SW-WINDS TURN S AND RELAX. WILL SEE WAVE
ACTION DISSIPATE BELOW SMALL-CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CONDITIONS DETERIORATE INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH RAIN OVER THE WATERS
AND EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS. VISIBILITY IMPACTS POSSIBLE. WINDS
INCREASING OUT OF THE S. GUSTS EXCEEDING GALE FORCE APPEAR LIKELY.
WAVES SUBSEQUENTLY INCREASING TO 10 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WINDS TURNING SW REMAINING BLUSTERY WITH GUSTS EXCEEDING 25 KTS.
WAVES MAINTAINED WITH HEIGHTS OF 8 TO 10 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS.

WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

AN OFFSHORE STORM SYSTEM COULD BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE
WATERS YET DETAILS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
     FOR ANZ231>235-237-250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ232>235-
     237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ231-251-
     255-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-254.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANK/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...FRANK/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...FRANK/SIPPRELL
MARINE...FRANK/SIPPRELL




000
FXUS61 KOKX 212324
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
624 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES NEARLY OVERHEAD TONIGHT BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE
ON SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT THEN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH SUNDAY AND
LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN STALLS OFFSHORE THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE MAY RIDE ALONG THE FRONT AND
PASS TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY...WITH ANOTHER LOW POSSIBLY TRACKING
EAST FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A LARGE 1035 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS CENTERED OVER WVA. IT WILL
CONTINUE MVG SLOWLY ESEWD OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL CONT TO DECREASE FROM W TO E EARLY TONIGHT. SFC WINDS ARE
FCST TO DECOUPLE FROM THE UPPER WIND FLOW AND CAUSE STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. ANOTHER ...COLD... NIGHT IS IN STORE
FOR THEM LOCAL AREA.

USED A BLEND OF MET/MAV MOS GUIDANCE TO START...BUT THEN DROPPED
LOWS FROM 5-7 DEGREES ACROSS THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN CT...AND ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND.
FLY IN THE OINTMENT COULD BE SOME WEAK H5 SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AFTER 06Z SATURDAY. ANY CLOUDS THAT
DEVELOP WILL INHIBIT RADIATIONAL COOLING...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
BE WARMER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. ALSO...WITH SFC DEW POINTS
MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS...IT IS POSSIBLE THE
CURRENT OVERNIGHT LOW TEMP FORECAST MAY NOT BE COLD ENOUGH IN SOME
SPOTS.

THE URBAN HEAT ISLAND EFFECT WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN NYC IN
THE MID TO UPPER 20S. OTHERWISE...LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER
TEENS TO AROUND 20 FOR MOST COASTAL AREAS...AND AS LOW AS THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THESE TEMPS ARE
15-20 AND AS LOW AS 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MOSTLY SUNNY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY SATURDAY AS HIGH PRES CONTINUES
TO DEPART. SW FLOW WILL USHER A MILDER AIR MASS INTO THE REGION
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA...AND IN THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS. THESE
TEMPS...HOWEVER...ARE STILL 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY AND AT NIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. SOME LIGHT...OVERRUNNING
PRECIP WILL DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. BEST FOCUS WILL
BE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ZONES WHERE POPS WILL BE LOW CHANCE...AND
WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE MOST ELSEWHERE. WITH SFC TEMPS BELOW
FREEZING ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF NE NJ...THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY...SOUTHERN CT AND THE PINE BARRENS OF EASTERN LONG
ISLAND...PTYPE COULD BE FREEZING RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES AND
FREEZING RAIN/RAIN FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. NYC/LONG ISLAND SHOULD
STAY AS PLAIN RAIN...WITH SOME FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE FOR THE PINE
BARRENS OF LONG ISLAND.

LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S INLAND
AND IN THE MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS NYC/LONG ISLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EARLY SUNDAY...WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES NORTH OF THE
REGION...WITH UPPER RIDGING QUICKLY BUILDING DURING THE DAY. THIS IS
IN RESPONSE TO DIGGING MID WEST TROUGH.

THE RIDGE GIVES WAY TO SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE THAT TRACKS
NORTHEAST...PASSING JUST TO THE WEST OF THE AREA EARLY MONDAY.
MEANWHILE...MAIN TROUGH AMPLIFIES AND CLOSES OFF ACROSS THE UPPER
MID WEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS CLOSED LOW WEAKENS AND LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEK AS MAIN TROUGH SLOWLY MAKES EASTWARD
PROGRESS. TROUGH AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

AT THE SURFACE...A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH SUNDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE WARM FRONT
MOVES THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AS LOCAL AREA BECOMES WARM SECTORED. THE
DEEP LOW PRESSURE PASSES ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH BY TUESDAY. THIS FRONT SETTLES EAST OF THE AREA MID WEEK AS
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES ALONG IT...LIKELY PASSING JUST
SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK. BY THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE AND FRONT TO
THE WEST APPROACHES. WITH UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVERHEAD LATE
THURSDAY/FRIDAY...SFC LOW PRESSURE MAY INTENSIFY OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY.

AS FOR WEATHER...ANY LINGERING LIGHT RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN ENDS
SUNDAY. TEMPS WARM INTO THE LOWER 50S. WITH SOUTH
WINDS...TEMPERATURES REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD SUNDAY NIGHT FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR...THEN WARM INTO THE 60S MONDAY AS AREA BECOMES WARM
SECTORED.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO GRADUALLY FALL
BACK CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS BY MID TO LATE WEEK.

POPS AND WEATHER WILL DEPEND ON EVENTUAL PLACEMENT OF LOW PRESSURE
MID WEEK AND AGAIN LATE WEEK. KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE FOR
NOW...WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITIES EAST OF NYC. WEATHER TYPE WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND PASSES SOUTH OF
THE AREA SATURDAY.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. FEW TO SCT CU THIS EVENING...WITH
SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING.

GUSTY NW WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING.

WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST AND WILL BE QUITE LIGHT LATE TONIGHT.
SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO 8-12 KTS AFTER 14-15Z SATURDAY.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING...AND
GUSTS BECOME LESS FREQUENT. TIMING OF THIS TRANSITION MAY BE OFF
AN HOUR OR TWO. OTHERWISE...WINDS RIGHT AROUND 310 MAGNETIC.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING...AND
GUSTS BECOME LESS FREQUENT. TIMING OF THIS TRANSITION MAY BE OFF
AN HOUR OR TWO. OTHERWISE...WINDS RIGHT AROUND OR JUST LEFT OF 310
MAGNETIC.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING...AND
GUSTS BECOME LESS FREQUENT. TIMING OF THIS TRANSITION MAY BE OFF
AN HOUR OR TWO. OTHERWISE...WINDS RIGHT AROUND 310 MAGNETIC.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS BECOME LESS FREQUENT AFTER 22-23Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS BECOME LESS FREQUENT AFTER 22-23Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS BECOME LESS FREQUENT AFTER 22-23Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SAT THROUGH WED...
.SAT AFTERNOON-SAT NIGHT...VFR. SW WINDS 10-15 GUSTS UP TO 20 KT DURING THE
DAYTIME.
.SUN...VFR.
.SUN NIGHT-MON...BECOMING MVFR/IFR. POSSIBLY SUB-IFR. RA AND FG
WITH LLWS POSSIBLE.
.MON NIGHT-TUE...VFR.
.WED...MAINLY VFR...ALTHOUGH POSSIBLE RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX MAY
IMPACT THE AREA...ESPECIALLY EAST OF NYC METRO.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY/SCA FOR EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND...THE SOUTH
SHORE INLAND BAYS AND PECONIC AND GARDINERS BAY WAS EXTENDED UNTIL
10 PM FOR WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT.

OTHERWISE...THE SCA FOR THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS FROM FIRE ISLAND
EAST REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM SATURDAY.

TRANQUIL CONDS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING
OVER THE WATERS. THAT HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY...AND THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SCA CONDS LIKELY FOR AT
LEAST THE OCEAN WATERS LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

WESTERLY WINDS SHIFT TOWARD THE SW SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES. SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AHEAD
OF AND THEN BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH A SLIGHT SHIFT FROM S/SE TO S/SW.

THEN WINDS SHIFT AGAIN BACK TO THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THESE WINDS TURN TOWARD THE NW TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE
WATERS MAY TURN THE WINDS TOWARD THE N/NW LATE WEDNESDAY.

WINDS REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. IN FACT GALES ARE
POSSIBLE MONDAY BEHIND THE WARM FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT.

WINDS DO DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BRIEFLY AS THE HIGH BUILDS.

SEAS SHOULD REMAIN ROUGH THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY CONDS THROUGH SATURDAY...AND ONLY LIGHT PRECIP POSSIBLE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-
     340-345.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FIG/MPS
NEAR TERM...GC/MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...GC/FIG/MPS
HYDROLOGY...FIG/MPS






000
FXUS61 KOKX 212324
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
624 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES NEARLY OVERHEAD TONIGHT BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE
ON SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT THEN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH SUNDAY AND
LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN STALLS OFFSHORE THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE MAY RIDE ALONG THE FRONT AND
PASS TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY...WITH ANOTHER LOW POSSIBLY TRACKING
EAST FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A LARGE 1035 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS CENTERED OVER WVA. IT WILL
CONTINUE MVG SLOWLY ESEWD OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL CONT TO DECREASE FROM W TO E EARLY TONIGHT. SFC WINDS ARE
FCST TO DECOUPLE FROM THE UPPER WIND FLOW AND CAUSE STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. ANOTHER ...COLD... NIGHT IS IN STORE
FOR THEM LOCAL AREA.

USED A BLEND OF MET/MAV MOS GUIDANCE TO START...BUT THEN DROPPED
LOWS FROM 5-7 DEGREES ACROSS THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN CT...AND ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND.
FLY IN THE OINTMENT COULD BE SOME WEAK H5 SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AFTER 06Z SATURDAY. ANY CLOUDS THAT
DEVELOP WILL INHIBIT RADIATIONAL COOLING...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
BE WARMER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. ALSO...WITH SFC DEW POINTS
MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS...IT IS POSSIBLE THE
CURRENT OVERNIGHT LOW TEMP FORECAST MAY NOT BE COLD ENOUGH IN SOME
SPOTS.

THE URBAN HEAT ISLAND EFFECT WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN NYC IN
THE MID TO UPPER 20S. OTHERWISE...LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER
TEENS TO AROUND 20 FOR MOST COASTAL AREAS...AND AS LOW AS THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THESE TEMPS ARE
15-20 AND AS LOW AS 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MOSTLY SUNNY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY SATURDAY AS HIGH PRES CONTINUES
TO DEPART. SW FLOW WILL USHER A MILDER AIR MASS INTO THE REGION
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA...AND IN THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS. THESE
TEMPS...HOWEVER...ARE STILL 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY AND AT NIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. SOME LIGHT...OVERRUNNING
PRECIP WILL DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. BEST FOCUS WILL
BE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ZONES WHERE POPS WILL BE LOW CHANCE...AND
WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE MOST ELSEWHERE. WITH SFC TEMPS BELOW
FREEZING ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF NE NJ...THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY...SOUTHERN CT AND THE PINE BARRENS OF EASTERN LONG
ISLAND...PTYPE COULD BE FREEZING RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES AND
FREEZING RAIN/RAIN FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. NYC/LONG ISLAND SHOULD
STAY AS PLAIN RAIN...WITH SOME FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE FOR THE PINE
BARRENS OF LONG ISLAND.

LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S INLAND
AND IN THE MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS NYC/LONG ISLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EARLY SUNDAY...WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES NORTH OF THE
REGION...WITH UPPER RIDGING QUICKLY BUILDING DURING THE DAY. THIS IS
IN RESPONSE TO DIGGING MID WEST TROUGH.

THE RIDGE GIVES WAY TO SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE THAT TRACKS
NORTHEAST...PASSING JUST TO THE WEST OF THE AREA EARLY MONDAY.
MEANWHILE...MAIN TROUGH AMPLIFIES AND CLOSES OFF ACROSS THE UPPER
MID WEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS CLOSED LOW WEAKENS AND LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEK AS MAIN TROUGH SLOWLY MAKES EASTWARD
PROGRESS. TROUGH AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

AT THE SURFACE...A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH SUNDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE WARM FRONT
MOVES THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AS LOCAL AREA BECOMES WARM SECTORED. THE
DEEP LOW PRESSURE PASSES ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH BY TUESDAY. THIS FRONT SETTLES EAST OF THE AREA MID WEEK AS
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES ALONG IT...LIKELY PASSING JUST
SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK. BY THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE AND FRONT TO
THE WEST APPROACHES. WITH UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVERHEAD LATE
THURSDAY/FRIDAY...SFC LOW PRESSURE MAY INTENSIFY OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY.

AS FOR WEATHER...ANY LINGERING LIGHT RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN ENDS
SUNDAY. TEMPS WARM INTO THE LOWER 50S. WITH SOUTH
WINDS...TEMPERATURES REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD SUNDAY NIGHT FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR...THEN WARM INTO THE 60S MONDAY AS AREA BECOMES WARM
SECTORED.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO GRADUALLY FALL
BACK CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS BY MID TO LATE WEEK.

POPS AND WEATHER WILL DEPEND ON EVENTUAL PLACEMENT OF LOW PRESSURE
MID WEEK AND AGAIN LATE WEEK. KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE FOR
NOW...WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITIES EAST OF NYC. WEATHER TYPE WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND PASSES SOUTH OF
THE AREA SATURDAY.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. FEW TO SCT CU THIS EVENING...WITH
SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING.

GUSTY NW WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING.

WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST AND WILL BE QUITE LIGHT LATE TONIGHT.
SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO 8-12 KTS AFTER 14-15Z SATURDAY.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING...AND
GUSTS BECOME LESS FREQUENT. TIMING OF THIS TRANSITION MAY BE OFF
AN HOUR OR TWO. OTHERWISE...WINDS RIGHT AROUND 310 MAGNETIC.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING...AND
GUSTS BECOME LESS FREQUENT. TIMING OF THIS TRANSITION MAY BE OFF
AN HOUR OR TWO. OTHERWISE...WINDS RIGHT AROUND OR JUST LEFT OF 310
MAGNETIC.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING...AND
GUSTS BECOME LESS FREQUENT. TIMING OF THIS TRANSITION MAY BE OFF
AN HOUR OR TWO. OTHERWISE...WINDS RIGHT AROUND 310 MAGNETIC.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS BECOME LESS FREQUENT AFTER 22-23Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS BECOME LESS FREQUENT AFTER 22-23Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS BECOME LESS FREQUENT AFTER 22-23Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SAT THROUGH WED...
.SAT AFTERNOON-SAT NIGHT...VFR. SW WINDS 10-15 GUSTS UP TO 20 KT DURING THE
DAYTIME.
.SUN...VFR.
.SUN NIGHT-MON...BECOMING MVFR/IFR. POSSIBLY SUB-IFR. RA AND FG
WITH LLWS POSSIBLE.
.MON NIGHT-TUE...VFR.
.WED...MAINLY VFR...ALTHOUGH POSSIBLE RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX MAY
IMPACT THE AREA...ESPECIALLY EAST OF NYC METRO.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY/SCA FOR EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND...THE SOUTH
SHORE INLAND BAYS AND PECONIC AND GARDINERS BAY WAS EXTENDED UNTIL
10 PM FOR WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT.

OTHERWISE...THE SCA FOR THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS FROM FIRE ISLAND
EAST REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM SATURDAY.

TRANQUIL CONDS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING
OVER THE WATERS. THAT HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY...AND THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SCA CONDS LIKELY FOR AT
LEAST THE OCEAN WATERS LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

WESTERLY WINDS SHIFT TOWARD THE SW SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES. SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AHEAD
OF AND THEN BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH A SLIGHT SHIFT FROM S/SE TO S/SW.

THEN WINDS SHIFT AGAIN BACK TO THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THESE WINDS TURN TOWARD THE NW TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE
WATERS MAY TURN THE WINDS TOWARD THE N/NW LATE WEDNESDAY.

WINDS REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. IN FACT GALES ARE
POSSIBLE MONDAY BEHIND THE WARM FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT.

WINDS DO DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BRIEFLY AS THE HIGH BUILDS.

SEAS SHOULD REMAIN ROUGH THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY CONDS THROUGH SATURDAY...AND ONLY LIGHT PRECIP POSSIBLE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-
     340-345.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FIG/MPS
NEAR TERM...GC/MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...GC/FIG/MPS
HYDROLOGY...FIG/MPS







000
FXUS61 KALY 212123
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
423 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ASIDE FROM A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER THE
MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...A COLD AND DRY NIGHT IS IN
STORE FOR TONIGHT.  A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO
THE REGION LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO TOMORROW NIGHT. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BRING MILDER AIR TO THE REGION FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH SOME RAINFALL AS WELL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 422 PM EST...LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY HAS SIGNIFICANTLY DIMINISHED
OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS OVER THE AREA. INVERSION HEIGHTS HAVE
LOWERED DOWN TO ABOUT 5000 FEET THANKS TO A BUILDING AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE...WHICH HAS CAUSED ANY REMAINING LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY TO
DWINDLE DOWN TO JUST LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES...MAINLY FOR
AREAS CLOSER TO THE LAKESHORE. HIRES MODELS...SUCH AS OUR LOCAL
WRF AND THE 3KM HRRR...SHOW ANY LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY THIS EVENING
TO SHIFT NORTHWARD AND AFFECT JUST THE FAR WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY
AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION WILL BE JUST
A COATING OR LESS...AS ANY APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION WILL BE
CONFINED TO AREAS CLOSER TO THE LAKE SHORE.

OUTSIDE OF THIS LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY...SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME MIXING...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND A RATHER CHILLY NIGHT. MINS WILL BE IN THE TEENS
/SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND SRN GREENS/. THESE LOW
TEMPS ARE IMPRESSIVE CONSIDERING IT/S ONLY MID NOVEMBER...AND MOST
OF THE AREA DOES NOT HAVE A DEEP SNOW COVER IN PLACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AFTER A COLD AND DRY START...CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE
WEST FOR DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. OUR REGION WILL BE INFLUENCED BY
FAST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AT 500 HPA...AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BE
MOVING TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES. 850 HPA TEMPS WILL
BE RAPIDLY WARMING THROUGH THE DAY THANKS TO WARM AIR
ADVECTION...AND 850 HPA TEMPS WILL RISE TO OR ABOVE FREEZING IN
MANY AREAS BY THE AFTN HOURS.

WITH THE ISENTROPIC LIFT/WARM AIR ADVECTION UNDERWAY...SOME LIGHT
PRECIP WILL BREAK OUT FROM WEST TO EAST LATE IN THE DAY AND
CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING PRECIP
WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA /NORTH OF I-90/...CLOSER
TO THE LARGE SCALE FORCING. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD
OF LIGHT SNOW FOR THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS TO START...MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL BE IN THE FORM OF A
WINTRY MIX CHANGING TO RAIN. IN MANY NORTHERN AREAS...THERE WILL
BE A PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIP /SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN/...WHICH WILL
EVENTUALLY CHANGE TO JUST A COLD PLAIN RAIN OVERNIGHT. FOR SOME
AREAS...INCLUDING THE GREATER CAPITAL REGION...TEMPS ON SAT MAY
RISE JUST ABOVE FREEZING...AND THEN HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE FOR
SAT NIGHT...AND PRECIP MAY WIND UP ONLY BEING IN THE FORM OF A
PLAIN COLD RAIN. ALL MEMBERS OF THE 15Z SREF SUGGEST THIS EVENT
WILL BE LIQUID FOR ALBANY...AND EVEN THE 12Z GEFS SHOW A LIMITED
WINDOW FOR MIXED PRECIP AT ALBANY AS WELL. THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING MIXED PRECIP WILL BE FOR THE ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE
SARATOGA REGION...SRN VT...TACONICS AND THE BERKSHIRES. EVEN IN
THE HIGH TERRAIN...LIGHT QPF WILL PREVENT ICE ACCRETION FROM BEING
MORE THAN JUST A COATING TO A TENTH OF AN INCH...WITH JUST A
COATING OF SNOW/SLEET POSSIBLE FOR HIGH TERRAIN AREAS AS WELL.

TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 30S FOR MANY AREAS ON
SATURDAY. ON SAT NIGHT...TEMPS WILL HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME OUT OF THE
S-SW AND BRING MILDER AIR INTO THE REGION.

ANY PRECIP LOOKS TO END BY SUNDAY MORNING...BUT IT WILL PROBABLY
REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...AS A LINGERING
BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER THE AREA. WE CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
RAIN SHOWER AROUND DUE TO THE SFC BOUNDARY NEARBY...BUT MOST AREAS
LOOK TO STAY DRY ON SUNDAY. THERE MAY BE SOME CLEARING LATE IN THE
DAY...MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN AREAS. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE SHORT
LIVED...AS YET ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE
SOUTH AND WEST. TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY MILDER ON SUNDAY...WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S TO LOW 50S.

THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE A MUCH STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CUTTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS STORM WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA LATE ON SUN
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. A WIDESPREAD STEADY RAINFALL WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA...AND PRECIP WILL BE IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAIN
EVERYWHERE DUE TO WARM TEMPS ALOFT. 850 HPA TEMPS WILL RISE TO AT
LEAST 10 DEGREES C EVERYWHERE BY MONDAY. A SOLID HALF INCH OF RAIN
IS EXPECTED FOR THE WHOLE REGION...AS 850 HPA SOUTHERLY WINDS OF
50 KTS OR MORE TRANSPORT PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THIS
WILL KEPT TEMPS MILD FOR SUN NIGHT...WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE UPPER
30S TO MID 40S. RAINFALL SHOULD BE ENDING ON MONDAY MORNING FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH.  BEHIND THE RAINFALL...THERE MAY BE SOME CLEARING
FOR LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY...AS OUR REGION BECOMES FULLY IN THE
STORM/S WARM SECTOR. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO REACH THE MID
50S TO MID 60S...WHICH IS 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE THE THE DOMINATE FEATURE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE EASTERN UNITED NEXT WEEK WITH NUMEROUS SHORT WAVES. IN THE
MEANWHILE THERE WILL BE RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST WHICH WILL
DAMPEN AS IT MOVES EASTWARD AS A TROUGH HEADS FOR THE WEST COAST
LATE IN THE WEEK. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK
ESPECIALLY AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. THE UNCERTAINTIES WILL ORIGINATE
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WHERE THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IS MODEL
GUIDANCE.

WE START OUT WITH SOME LINGERING PRECIPITATION AS LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WHICH PASSES WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST CONTINUES TO MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD
BECOME FAVORABLE IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW FOR LAKE EFFECT TO OCCUR
INTO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

IN THE MEANTIME...GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A SHORT WAVE ROTATING
ABOUT BASE OF THE DEEP TROUGH OVER NEAR THE GULF OF MEXICO COAST
TUESDAY WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST BY
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO HEAD NORTHEASTWARD
REMAINING WELL OFFSHORE. HOWEVER THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD
IN THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE LOW. THE ECMWF TRACKS THE LOW CLOSER
TO THE COAST THAN THE GFS AND BRINGS ITS PRECIPITATION SHIELD ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE GFS KEEP ITS PRECIPITATION
TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. FOLLOWING THE LEAD OF THE WEATHER PREDICTION
CENTER HAVE USED A BLENDED APPROACH. HAVE RUN WITH CHANCE POPS
ACROSS MY FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE
NEAR NORMAL WHICH MEANS WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN DURING THE DAY FOR SOME
AREAS.

THERE IS MUCH GREATER UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AS WE HEAD INTO
THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK...THANKSGIVING DAY AND FRIDAY. THE TIMING
OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES IN BOTH THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS
WILL HAVE BIG IMPACT ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER AND WHERE AND WHEN A
LOW FORMS AND HOW STRONG IT MAY GET. INDICATIONS ARE A LOW SHOULD
FORM SOMEWHERE OFF THE SOUTHEAST TO MID ATLANTIC COAST BY THURSDAY
NIGHT. HAVE RUN WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS/CLIMATOLOGICALLY FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY SINCE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IS SO HIGH.

AS FOR THANKSGIVING DAY...AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE WEATHER
SHOULD BE FAIR AS WE ARE BETWEEN SYSTEMS.

OVERALL GUIDANCE INDICATES TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY COOL AS THE
WEEK PROGRESSES WITH BELOW NORMAL READINGS EXPECTED BY THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...18Z/SAT.

HEIGHTS WILL RISE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES TO OUR EAST AND RIDGING BUILDS IN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST AT THE SURFACE. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY. DECREASING CLOUD COVER WITH SKIES
EXPECTED TO BECOME CLEAR FOR A PERIOD THIS EVENING BEFORE HIGH
CIRRUS CLOUDS STREAM IN SATURDAY MORNING.

HAVE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION HAS RESULTED IN
BRISK AND GUSTY WINDS WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS DOWN THE MOHAWK
VALLEY AND ACROSS THE TACONICS AND BERKSHIRES. WINDS WILL DECREASE
THIS EVENING AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL DEVELOP AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

THERE WILL BE A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER FAR
WESTERN AREAS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED. A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL IMPACT THE REGION...MAINLY FOR
AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...FOR LATE TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW
NIGHT. BASIN AVERAGE LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF PRECIP WILL BE A
QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON AREA
RIVERS AND STREAMS. ALONG WITH A MILDER AIR MASS...A MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAINFALL...WILL
IMPACT THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR SO. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS





000
FXUS61 KALY 212123
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
423 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ASIDE FROM A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER THE
MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...A COLD AND DRY NIGHT IS IN
STORE FOR TONIGHT.  A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO
THE REGION LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO TOMORROW NIGHT. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BRING MILDER AIR TO THE REGION FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH SOME RAINFALL AS WELL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 422 PM EST...LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY HAS SIGNIFICANTLY DIMINISHED
OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS OVER THE AREA. INVERSION HEIGHTS HAVE
LOWERED DOWN TO ABOUT 5000 FEET THANKS TO A BUILDING AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE...WHICH HAS CAUSED ANY REMAINING LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY TO
DWINDLE DOWN TO JUST LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES...MAINLY FOR
AREAS CLOSER TO THE LAKESHORE. HIRES MODELS...SUCH AS OUR LOCAL
WRF AND THE 3KM HRRR...SHOW ANY LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY THIS EVENING
TO SHIFT NORTHWARD AND AFFECT JUST THE FAR WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY
AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION WILL BE JUST
A COATING OR LESS...AS ANY APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION WILL BE
CONFINED TO AREAS CLOSER TO THE LAKE SHORE.

OUTSIDE OF THIS LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY...SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME MIXING...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND A RATHER CHILLY NIGHT. MINS WILL BE IN THE TEENS
/SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND SRN GREENS/. THESE LOW
TEMPS ARE IMPRESSIVE CONSIDERING IT/S ONLY MID NOVEMBER...AND MOST
OF THE AREA DOES NOT HAVE A DEEP SNOW COVER IN PLACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AFTER A COLD AND DRY START...CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE
WEST FOR DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. OUR REGION WILL BE INFLUENCED BY
FAST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AT 500 HPA...AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BE
MOVING TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES. 850 HPA TEMPS WILL
BE RAPIDLY WARMING THROUGH THE DAY THANKS TO WARM AIR
ADVECTION...AND 850 HPA TEMPS WILL RISE TO OR ABOVE FREEZING IN
MANY AREAS BY THE AFTN HOURS.

WITH THE ISENTROPIC LIFT/WARM AIR ADVECTION UNDERWAY...SOME LIGHT
PRECIP WILL BREAK OUT FROM WEST TO EAST LATE IN THE DAY AND
CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING PRECIP
WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA /NORTH OF I-90/...CLOSER
TO THE LARGE SCALE FORCING. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD
OF LIGHT SNOW FOR THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS TO START...MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL BE IN THE FORM OF A
WINTRY MIX CHANGING TO RAIN. IN MANY NORTHERN AREAS...THERE WILL
BE A PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIP /SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN/...WHICH WILL
EVENTUALLY CHANGE TO JUST A COLD PLAIN RAIN OVERNIGHT. FOR SOME
AREAS...INCLUDING THE GREATER CAPITAL REGION...TEMPS ON SAT MAY
RISE JUST ABOVE FREEZING...AND THEN HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE FOR
SAT NIGHT...AND PRECIP MAY WIND UP ONLY BEING IN THE FORM OF A
PLAIN COLD RAIN. ALL MEMBERS OF THE 15Z SREF SUGGEST THIS EVENT
WILL BE LIQUID FOR ALBANY...AND EVEN THE 12Z GEFS SHOW A LIMITED
WINDOW FOR MIXED PRECIP AT ALBANY AS WELL. THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING MIXED PRECIP WILL BE FOR THE ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE
SARATOGA REGION...SRN VT...TACONICS AND THE BERKSHIRES. EVEN IN
THE HIGH TERRAIN...LIGHT QPF WILL PREVENT ICE ACCRETION FROM BEING
MORE THAN JUST A COATING TO A TENTH OF AN INCH...WITH JUST A
COATING OF SNOW/SLEET POSSIBLE FOR HIGH TERRAIN AREAS AS WELL.

TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 30S FOR MANY AREAS ON
SATURDAY. ON SAT NIGHT...TEMPS WILL HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME OUT OF THE
S-SW AND BRING MILDER AIR INTO THE REGION.

ANY PRECIP LOOKS TO END BY SUNDAY MORNING...BUT IT WILL PROBABLY
REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...AS A LINGERING
BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER THE AREA. WE CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
RAIN SHOWER AROUND DUE TO THE SFC BOUNDARY NEARBY...BUT MOST AREAS
LOOK TO STAY DRY ON SUNDAY. THERE MAY BE SOME CLEARING LATE IN THE
DAY...MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN AREAS. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE SHORT
LIVED...AS YET ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE
SOUTH AND WEST. TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY MILDER ON SUNDAY...WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S TO LOW 50S.

THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE A MUCH STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CUTTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS STORM WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA LATE ON SUN
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. A WIDESPREAD STEADY RAINFALL WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA...AND PRECIP WILL BE IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAIN
EVERYWHERE DUE TO WARM TEMPS ALOFT. 850 HPA TEMPS WILL RISE TO AT
LEAST 10 DEGREES C EVERYWHERE BY MONDAY. A SOLID HALF INCH OF RAIN
IS EXPECTED FOR THE WHOLE REGION...AS 850 HPA SOUTHERLY WINDS OF
50 KTS OR MORE TRANSPORT PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THIS
WILL KEPT TEMPS MILD FOR SUN NIGHT...WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE UPPER
30S TO MID 40S. RAINFALL SHOULD BE ENDING ON MONDAY MORNING FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH.  BEHIND THE RAINFALL...THERE MAY BE SOME CLEARING
FOR LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY...AS OUR REGION BECOMES FULLY IN THE
STORM/S WARM SECTOR. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO REACH THE MID
50S TO MID 60S...WHICH IS 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE THE THE DOMINATE FEATURE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE EASTERN UNITED NEXT WEEK WITH NUMEROUS SHORT WAVES. IN THE
MEANWHILE THERE WILL BE RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST WHICH WILL
DAMPEN AS IT MOVES EASTWARD AS A TROUGH HEADS FOR THE WEST COAST
LATE IN THE WEEK. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK
ESPECIALLY AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. THE UNCERTAINTIES WILL ORIGINATE
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WHERE THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IS MODEL
GUIDANCE.

WE START OUT WITH SOME LINGERING PRECIPITATION AS LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WHICH PASSES WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST CONTINUES TO MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD
BECOME FAVORABLE IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW FOR LAKE EFFECT TO OCCUR
INTO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

IN THE MEANTIME...GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A SHORT WAVE ROTATING
ABOUT BASE OF THE DEEP TROUGH OVER NEAR THE GULF OF MEXICO COAST
TUESDAY WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST BY
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO HEAD NORTHEASTWARD
REMAINING WELL OFFSHORE. HOWEVER THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD
IN THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE LOW. THE ECMWF TRACKS THE LOW CLOSER
TO THE COAST THAN THE GFS AND BRINGS ITS PRECIPITATION SHIELD ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE GFS KEEP ITS PRECIPITATION
TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. FOLLOWING THE LEAD OF THE WEATHER PREDICTION
CENTER HAVE USED A BLENDED APPROACH. HAVE RUN WITH CHANCE POPS
ACROSS MY FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE
NEAR NORMAL WHICH MEANS WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN DURING THE DAY FOR SOME
AREAS.

THERE IS MUCH GREATER UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AS WE HEAD INTO
THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK...THANKSGIVING DAY AND FRIDAY. THE TIMING
OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES IN BOTH THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS
WILL HAVE BIG IMPACT ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER AND WHERE AND WHEN A
LOW FORMS AND HOW STRONG IT MAY GET. INDICATIONS ARE A LOW SHOULD
FORM SOMEWHERE OFF THE SOUTHEAST TO MID ATLANTIC COAST BY THURSDAY
NIGHT. HAVE RUN WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS/CLIMATOLOGICALLY FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY SINCE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IS SO HIGH.

AS FOR THANKSGIVING DAY...AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE WEATHER
SHOULD BE FAIR AS WE ARE BETWEEN SYSTEMS.

OVERALL GUIDANCE INDICATES TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY COOL AS THE
WEEK PROGRESSES WITH BELOW NORMAL READINGS EXPECTED BY THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...18Z/SAT.

HEIGHTS WILL RISE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES TO OUR EAST AND RIDGING BUILDS IN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST AT THE SURFACE. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY. DECREASING CLOUD COVER WITH SKIES
EXPECTED TO BECOME CLEAR FOR A PERIOD THIS EVENING BEFORE HIGH
CIRRUS CLOUDS STREAM IN SATURDAY MORNING.

HAVE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION HAS RESULTED IN
BRISK AND GUSTY WINDS WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS DOWN THE MOHAWK
VALLEY AND ACROSS THE TACONICS AND BERKSHIRES. WINDS WILL DECREASE
THIS EVENING AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL DEVELOP AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

THERE WILL BE A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER FAR
WESTERN AREAS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED. A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL IMPACT THE REGION...MAINLY FOR
AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...FOR LATE TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW
NIGHT. BASIN AVERAGE LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF PRECIP WILL BE A
QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON AREA
RIVERS AND STREAMS. ALONG WITH A MILDER AIR MASS...A MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAINFALL...WILL
IMPACT THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR SO. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS




000
FXUS61 KBOX 212020
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
319 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

AFTER A DRY BUT VERY COLD NIGHT...TEMPERATURES MODERATE SOME
SATURDAY ON GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS.  THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A
SIGNIFICANT WARM UP SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY...BUT WITH A PERIOD
OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.  QUIET FOR TUESDAY BUT CONDITIONS
MAY CHANGE BY WEDNESDAY WITH THE THREAT OF A STORM SYSTEM. TURNING
COLDER INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...

315 PM UPDATE...

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST.
THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT ALONG WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.  THE EXCEPTION TO THAT WILL BE THE OUTER-
CAPE...WHERE SOME OCEAN EFFECT CLOUDS MAY AFFECT THE REGION AT
TIMES.  OTHERWISE...GIVEN THE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...SHOULD BE A
NICE SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING ONCE WINDS DECOUPLE.  THIS WILL
RESULT IN TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

LOW TEMPS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT AROUND 10 DEGREES ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST NH/NORTHWEST MA...TO MAINLY THE TEENS ELSEWHERE.  THE
URBAN HEAT ISLANDS OF DOWNTOWN BOSTON/PROVIDENCE WILL BE THE MILD
SPOTS...WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 20 TO 25 DEGREE RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC ALLOWING FOR STRONG MID
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION TO DEVELOP.  THE RESPONSE WILL BE AN INCREASE
IN MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS AS THE DAY WEARS ON...BUT IT WILL
REMAIN DRY GIVEN THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

DESPITE THE WARM ADVECTION ALOFT...IT WILL TAKE TIME FOR THAT TO BE
COMPLETELY REALIZED AT THE SURFACE.  WHILE IT WILL BE MILDER THAN
TODAY...HIGH TEMPS WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE UPPER
30S AND LOWER 40S WITH SOME MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S ON THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS.  HOWEVER...EXPECTING SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH
TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND PERHAPS A BIT STRONGER ALONG THE FAR
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.  THIS WILL STILL MAKE IT FEEL RATHER
CHILLY OUTSIDE FOR NOVEMBER STANDARDS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...

A MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SAT NIGHT.
THERE STILL SHOULD BE ENOUGH FORCING TO BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SCATTERED LIGHT PRECIPITATION.  WHILE IT CERTAINLY WILL BE TOO WARM
ALOFT FOR ANY SNOW...THE BIGGEST QUESTION IS WILL IT BE COLD ENOUGH
AT THE SURFACE FOR SOME POCKETS OF SPOTTY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS
THE INTERIOR.  ITS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE AND WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED...BUT ITS NOT AN IDEAL SETUP.  THERE IS A LOT OF WIND OFF
THE DECK  AND PROBABLY ENOUGH TO PREVENT MOST AREAS FROM DECOUPLING.
 GIVEN WERE +4C AT 850 MB SOME OF THIS MILDER AIR WILL BE ABLE TO
MIX DOWN. THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL LIGHT ICING THREAT...BUT
STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED POCKETS IN THE DEEPER VALLEY
LOCATIONS.  LOW TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO MIDDLE 30S
DURING THE EVENING...BUT SHOULD RISE SOME OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

- TURNING WARMER AND WET MONDAY
- A POSSIBLE MIDWEEK STORM...ESPECIALLY FOR SE NEW ENGLAND
- LOOKING COLDER INTO THANKSGIVING

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL CONSENSUS...

TRENDING +AO/NAO WITH NEAR-NEUTRAL PNA SUGGESTS A MORE PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN AND MILD. NO SURPRISE TO SEE A LACK OF DEEP CLOSED-LOW H5
DISTURBANCES...THOUGH AN ACTIVE PATTERN WITH ABUNDANCE OF PACIFIC-
ORIGIN WAVES MAINTAINING TROUGHING BETWEEN SECTORS OF ABOVE-AVERAGE
OCEAN TEMPERATURES OVER THE NE-PACIFIC AND NW-ATLANTIC.

SOME OF THOSE WAVES ARE WELL OUT IN THE PACIFIC AND HAVE NOT EVEN
BEEN SAMPLED. THE WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WINTER-STORM POTENTIAL
FOR THE MIDWEEK / THANKSGIVING PERIOD IS JUST S OF THE FURTHEST E
ALEUTAIN ISLANDS OF ALASKA. NOTING THIS...HAVE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE
THROUGH EARLY-NEXT WEEK WITH THE FORECAST...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE FOR A
POTENTIAL MIDWEEK STORM. WILL HIT UP THE DETAILS BELOW.

SO FOR SUNDAY...

CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK TROUGH DISTURBANCE.
DISSIPATING BENEATH A MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE / SUBSIDENCE. BENEATH
THE WARM-SECTOR AND RETURN S-FLOW ROUND THE HIGH PUSHING OFF INTO
THE ATLANTIC...H925 TEMPERATURES NEARLY +10C...MAY SEE HIGHS WARM
WELL INTO THE 50S WITH ANY SUNSHINE.

AS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...

WARM-FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING BROADSCALE LIFT AHEAD OF A DEEPENING LOW
ACROSS THE C-CONUS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION BECOMES THE FOCUS
FOR RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. NON-DIURNAL WARMING TREND OVERNIGHT. ALL-
RAIN EVENT. MAIN CONCERNS ARE WITH BOTH WINDS AND RAIN.

WITH WINDS: STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET CENTERED AROUND MONDAY MORNING WITH
WINDS 1-2 KFT AGL MODEL-CONSENSUS AVERAGING AROUND 50 MPH /45 KTS/.
SUGGESTED BOUNDARY-LAYER DECOUPLING BENEATH MUCH WARMER AIR BETWEEN
H925-85. BUT IF 2M TEMPERATURES ARE WARMER AS FORECAST FOR SUNDAY
COULD BE WARMER SUNDAY NIGHT AIDING IN LOW-LEVEL MIXING. ALSO NEED
TO CONSIDER ANY HEAVY RAIN WHICH COULD ALSO AID WITH DRAGGING FASTER
MOMENTUM TO THE SURFACE. OVERALL: MAIN CONCERN ACROSS SE NEW ENGLAND
AND HIGH TERRAIN ABOVE 1 KFT. WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE NECESSARY. CIPS
ANALOG GUIDANCE HAS JUST ABOVE 50-PERCENT FOR WINDS > 35 MPH.

WITH RAIN: BROADSCALE ASCENT OF THE WARM-CONVEYER-BELT WITH PWATS UP
TO 1.5-INCHES AND ANOMALOUS HIGH-THETAE AIR. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
NOSE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET TO THE PARENT WARM-FRONT. EXPECT A BROAD
NW-SE BAND OF RAIN WITH PERHAPS AN EMBEDDED LINE OF HEAVIER RAIN. IT
MOVES THROUGH NOTABLY QUICK. MODEL-CONSENSUS AVERAGE RAIN AMOUNTS
ARE AROUND 0.50 - 0.75 INCHES. AM NOT EXPECTING ANY FLOOD ISSUES.

INTO MONDAY...

RAINS FOR THE MORNING...IMPROVING AFTERNOON. IF WE CLEAR AS H925
TEMPERATURES WARM TO +14C THEN WE COULD POSSIBLY SEE HIGHS INTO THE
MID- TO UPPER-60S /+18C/ POSSIBLY TO NEAR 70. MODEL-CONSENSUS H925
WINDS AVERAGE AROUND 45 MPH /40 KTS/ AND WITH WARMER CONDITIONS
COULD SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR MIXING OUT TO H9 AND MOMENTUM MIX-DOWN.
WILL HINT AT THIS IN THE FORECAST...BUT MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

WILL GO WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS...BUT THE MAIN PUMP OF MOISTURE
SHOULD BE WELL OFFSHORE. OTHERWISE THE MAIN COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO
THE DEEPENING LOW LIFTING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION SWEEPS
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. EXPECTING DRY AND COOLER WEATHER FOR TUESDAY...
PERHAPS CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...

JUST TOO EARLY TO SAY. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS VARY
CONSIDERABLY WITH SURFACE LOW CENTERS AROUND THE ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH
KEY UPON A LOW SE OF THE 40N / 70W BENCHMARK AROUND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HAVE CONCERNS FOR SE NEW ENGLAND WHICH COULD SEE THE GREATEST IMPACT
WHILE NOTING A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER S-CANADA /WITH THE CENTER
OVER THE C-CONUS/. THE GFS-UPGRADED /T1534/ IS A FAR OUTLIER AND IS
NOT CONSIDERED WITH THIS FORECAST.

EVALUATING SYNOPTICS...THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A COASTAL STORM
BUT MORE OF A WAVE LOW ALONG THE OFFSHORE STALLED FRONT. AS BEEN THE
CASE THIS YEAR...COLD AIR HAS BEEN PLUNGING INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS
BUT ITS TRUE BITE REMAINS MAINLY N/W OF OUR REGION. DO HAVE SOME
CONFIDENCE THAT THE WAVE LOW WILL HUG CLOSER TO THE COAST. THEN IT
COMES TO BREAKING DOWN TIMING / ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS / THERMAL FIELDS
WHICH RIGHT NOW ARE AGAIN TOO EARLY TO DIAGNOSE. THERE HAS BEEN A
CONSISTENT SIGNAL. STORM BEARS WATCHING.

EXPECTING A RETURN OF ARCTIC AIR BEHIND WHATEVER MIDWEEK SYSTEM THAT
MAY EMERGE. DAY 6-8 CIPS ANALOGS HAVE HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW-
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE SE-CONUS INTO THE OHIO-RIVER VALLEY
CENTERED AROUND THE LATE-THANKSGIVING WEEK PERIOD. EC ENSEMBLES AT
H85 HAVE THE FREEZING MARK PLUNGING TO NEARLY THE GULF COAST...WITH
-10C AIR INTO NEW ENGLAND BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

315 PM UPDATE...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR WITH GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WIND.

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR.  SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30
KNOTS DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON...PERHAPS UP TO 35 KNOTS BY EARLY EVENING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CAPE/ISLANDS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.  HOWEVER...A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN A FEW BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS.
ISOLATED POCKETS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR.  SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS
CONTINUE ON THE COASTAL PLAIN DURING THE EVENING...PERHAPS UP TO 35
KNOTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

INITIAL -SHRA EARLY SUNDAY WITH LOW-END VFR FOLLOWED BY SOME BRIEF
IMPROVEMENT. WINDS TURNING S.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CONDITIONS DETERIORATE MVFR-LIFR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
WITH +RA AND STRONG S-WINDS WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS POSSIBLE...
OTHERWISE LLWS IMPACTS WITH 50 KT S-WINDS 2 KFT AGL. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE BY MIDDAY...BUT COULD SEE CONTINUED SW-WINDS AROUND 25 KTS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

W-FLOW WITH MAINLY VFR.

WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

AN OFFSHORE STORM SYSTEM COULD BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ESPECIALLY
TO THE SE-TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  NORTHWEST SMALL CRAFT WIND GUSTS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.  THIS A RESULT OF A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST...DECREASING THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC ON SAT ALLOWING FOR A RETURN
SOUTHWEST FLOW OF AIR OVER THE WATERS.  THERE IS A PRETTY GOOD WEST
TO SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL JET AND GIVEN THE AIRMASS IS STILL RELATIVELY
COLD EXPECT DECENT MIXING OVER THE OCEAN.  THEREFORE...HAVE ISSUED A
GALE WATCH FOR MOST OF OUR OPEN WATERS FROM MID AFTERNOON SAT INTO
SAT NIGHT.  THERE IS ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD
OF 35 KNOT WIND GUSTS.  SEAS WILL LIKELY BUILD TO BETWEEN 6 AND 9
FEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS.  THE NEXT SHIFT CAN EITHER UPGRADE
TO STRONG SMALL CRAFTS OR LOW END GALE WARNINGS.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CONDITIONS IMPROVING AS SW-WINDS TURN S AND RELAX. WILL SEE WAVE
ACTION DISSIPATE BELOW SMALL-CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CONDITIONS DETERIORATE INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH RAIN OVER THE WATERS
AND EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS. VISIBILITY IMPACTS POSSIBLE. WINDS
INCREASING OUT OF THE S. GUSTS EXCEEDING GALE FORCE APPEAR LIKELY.
WAVES SUBSEQUENTLY INCREASING TO 10 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WINDS TURNING SW REMAINING BLUSTERY WITH GUSTS EXCEEDING 25 KTS.
WAVES MAINTAINED WITH HEIGHTS OF 8 TO 10 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS.

WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

AN OFFSHORE STORM SYSTEM COULD BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE
WATERS YET DETAILS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
     FOR ANZ231>235-237-250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ232>235-
     237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ231-251-
     255-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-254.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...FRANK/SIPPRELL
MARINE...FRANK/SIPPRELL




000
FXUS61 KBOX 212020
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
319 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

AFTER A DRY BUT VERY COLD NIGHT...TEMPERATURES MODERATE SOME
SATURDAY ON GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS.  THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A
SIGNIFICANT WARM UP SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY...BUT WITH A PERIOD
OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.  QUIET FOR TUESDAY BUT CONDITIONS
MAY CHANGE BY WEDNESDAY WITH THE THREAT OF A STORM SYSTEM. TURNING
COLDER INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...

315 PM UPDATE...

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST.
THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT ALONG WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.  THE EXCEPTION TO THAT WILL BE THE OUTER-
CAPE...WHERE SOME OCEAN EFFECT CLOUDS MAY AFFECT THE REGION AT
TIMES.  OTHERWISE...GIVEN THE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...SHOULD BE A
NICE SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING ONCE WINDS DECOUPLE.  THIS WILL
RESULT IN TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

LOW TEMPS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT AROUND 10 DEGREES ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST NH/NORTHWEST MA...TO MAINLY THE TEENS ELSEWHERE.  THE
URBAN HEAT ISLANDS OF DOWNTOWN BOSTON/PROVIDENCE WILL BE THE MILD
SPOTS...WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 20 TO 25 DEGREE RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC ALLOWING FOR STRONG MID
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION TO DEVELOP.  THE RESPONSE WILL BE AN INCREASE
IN MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS AS THE DAY WEARS ON...BUT IT WILL
REMAIN DRY GIVEN THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

DESPITE THE WARM ADVECTION ALOFT...IT WILL TAKE TIME FOR THAT TO BE
COMPLETELY REALIZED AT THE SURFACE.  WHILE IT WILL BE MILDER THAN
TODAY...HIGH TEMPS WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE UPPER
30S AND LOWER 40S WITH SOME MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S ON THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS.  HOWEVER...EXPECTING SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH
TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND PERHAPS A BIT STRONGER ALONG THE FAR
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.  THIS WILL STILL MAKE IT FEEL RATHER
CHILLY OUTSIDE FOR NOVEMBER STANDARDS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...

A MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SAT NIGHT.
THERE STILL SHOULD BE ENOUGH FORCING TO BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SCATTERED LIGHT PRECIPITATION.  WHILE IT CERTAINLY WILL BE TOO WARM
ALOFT FOR ANY SNOW...THE BIGGEST QUESTION IS WILL IT BE COLD ENOUGH
AT THE SURFACE FOR SOME POCKETS OF SPOTTY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS
THE INTERIOR.  ITS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE AND WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED...BUT ITS NOT AN IDEAL SETUP.  THERE IS A LOT OF WIND OFF
THE DECK  AND PROBABLY ENOUGH TO PREVENT MOST AREAS FROM DECOUPLING.
 GIVEN WERE +4C AT 850 MB SOME OF THIS MILDER AIR WILL BE ABLE TO
MIX DOWN. THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL LIGHT ICING THREAT...BUT
STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED POCKETS IN THE DEEPER VALLEY
LOCATIONS.  LOW TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO MIDDLE 30S
DURING THE EVENING...BUT SHOULD RISE SOME OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

- TURNING WARMER AND WET MONDAY
- A POSSIBLE MIDWEEK STORM...ESPECIALLY FOR SE NEW ENGLAND
- LOOKING COLDER INTO THANKSGIVING

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL CONSENSUS...

TRENDING +AO/NAO WITH NEAR-NEUTRAL PNA SUGGESTS A MORE PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN AND MILD. NO SURPRISE TO SEE A LACK OF DEEP CLOSED-LOW H5
DISTURBANCES...THOUGH AN ACTIVE PATTERN WITH ABUNDANCE OF PACIFIC-
ORIGIN WAVES MAINTAINING TROUGHING BETWEEN SECTORS OF ABOVE-AVERAGE
OCEAN TEMPERATURES OVER THE NE-PACIFIC AND NW-ATLANTIC.

SOME OF THOSE WAVES ARE WELL OUT IN THE PACIFIC AND HAVE NOT EVEN
BEEN SAMPLED. THE WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WINTER-STORM POTENTIAL
FOR THE MIDWEEK / THANKSGIVING PERIOD IS JUST S OF THE FURTHEST E
ALEUTAIN ISLANDS OF ALASKA. NOTING THIS...HAVE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE
THROUGH EARLY-NEXT WEEK WITH THE FORECAST...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE FOR A
POTENTIAL MIDWEEK STORM. WILL HIT UP THE DETAILS BELOW.

SO FOR SUNDAY...

CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK TROUGH DISTURBANCE.
DISSIPATING BENEATH A MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE / SUBSIDENCE. BENEATH
THE WARM-SECTOR AND RETURN S-FLOW ROUND THE HIGH PUSHING OFF INTO
THE ATLANTIC...H925 TEMPERATURES NEARLY +10C...MAY SEE HIGHS WARM
WELL INTO THE 50S WITH ANY SUNSHINE.

AS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...

WARM-FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING BROADSCALE LIFT AHEAD OF A DEEPENING LOW
ACROSS THE C-CONUS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION BECOMES THE FOCUS
FOR RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. NON-DIURNAL WARMING TREND OVERNIGHT. ALL-
RAIN EVENT. MAIN CONCERNS ARE WITH BOTH WINDS AND RAIN.

WITH WINDS: STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET CENTERED AROUND MONDAY MORNING WITH
WINDS 1-2 KFT AGL MODEL-CONSENSUS AVERAGING AROUND 50 MPH /45 KTS/.
SUGGESTED BOUNDARY-LAYER DECOUPLING BENEATH MUCH WARMER AIR BETWEEN
H925-85. BUT IF 2M TEMPERATURES ARE WARMER AS FORECAST FOR SUNDAY
COULD BE WARMER SUNDAY NIGHT AIDING IN LOW-LEVEL MIXING. ALSO NEED
TO CONSIDER ANY HEAVY RAIN WHICH COULD ALSO AID WITH DRAGGING FASTER
MOMENTUM TO THE SURFACE. OVERALL: MAIN CONCERN ACROSS SE NEW ENGLAND
AND HIGH TERRAIN ABOVE 1 KFT. WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE NECESSARY. CIPS
ANALOG GUIDANCE HAS JUST ABOVE 50-PERCENT FOR WINDS > 35 MPH.

WITH RAIN: BROADSCALE ASCENT OF THE WARM-CONVEYER-BELT WITH PWATS UP
TO 1.5-INCHES AND ANOMALOUS HIGH-THETAE AIR. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
NOSE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET TO THE PARENT WARM-FRONT. EXPECT A BROAD
NW-SE BAND OF RAIN WITH PERHAPS AN EMBEDDED LINE OF HEAVIER RAIN. IT
MOVES THROUGH NOTABLY QUICK. MODEL-CONSENSUS AVERAGE RAIN AMOUNTS
ARE AROUND 0.50 - 0.75 INCHES. AM NOT EXPECTING ANY FLOOD ISSUES.

INTO MONDAY...

RAINS FOR THE MORNING...IMPROVING AFTERNOON. IF WE CLEAR AS H925
TEMPERATURES WARM TO +14C THEN WE COULD POSSIBLY SEE HIGHS INTO THE
MID- TO UPPER-60S /+18C/ POSSIBLY TO NEAR 70. MODEL-CONSENSUS H925
WINDS AVERAGE AROUND 45 MPH /40 KTS/ AND WITH WARMER CONDITIONS
COULD SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR MIXING OUT TO H9 AND MOMENTUM MIX-DOWN.
WILL HINT AT THIS IN THE FORECAST...BUT MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

WILL GO WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS...BUT THE MAIN PUMP OF MOISTURE
SHOULD BE WELL OFFSHORE. OTHERWISE THE MAIN COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO
THE DEEPENING LOW LIFTING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION SWEEPS
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. EXPECTING DRY AND COOLER WEATHER FOR TUESDAY...
PERHAPS CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...

JUST TOO EARLY TO SAY. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS VARY
CONSIDERABLY WITH SURFACE LOW CENTERS AROUND THE ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH
KEY UPON A LOW SE OF THE 40N / 70W BENCHMARK AROUND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HAVE CONCERNS FOR SE NEW ENGLAND WHICH COULD SEE THE GREATEST IMPACT
WHILE NOTING A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER S-CANADA /WITH THE CENTER
OVER THE C-CONUS/. THE GFS-UPGRADED /T1534/ IS A FAR OUTLIER AND IS
NOT CONSIDERED WITH THIS FORECAST.

EVALUATING SYNOPTICS...THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A COASTAL STORM
BUT MORE OF A WAVE LOW ALONG THE OFFSHORE STALLED FRONT. AS BEEN THE
CASE THIS YEAR...COLD AIR HAS BEEN PLUNGING INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS
BUT ITS TRUE BITE REMAINS MAINLY N/W OF OUR REGION. DO HAVE SOME
CONFIDENCE THAT THE WAVE LOW WILL HUG CLOSER TO THE COAST. THEN IT
COMES TO BREAKING DOWN TIMING / ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS / THERMAL FIELDS
WHICH RIGHT NOW ARE AGAIN TOO EARLY TO DIAGNOSE. THERE HAS BEEN A
CONSISTENT SIGNAL. STORM BEARS WATCHING.

EXPECTING A RETURN OF ARCTIC AIR BEHIND WHATEVER MIDWEEK SYSTEM THAT
MAY EMERGE. DAY 6-8 CIPS ANALOGS HAVE HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW-
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE SE-CONUS INTO THE OHIO-RIVER VALLEY
CENTERED AROUND THE LATE-THANKSGIVING WEEK PERIOD. EC ENSEMBLES AT
H85 HAVE THE FREEZING MARK PLUNGING TO NEARLY THE GULF COAST...WITH
-10C AIR INTO NEW ENGLAND BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

315 PM UPDATE...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR WITH GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WIND.

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR.  SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30
KNOTS DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON...PERHAPS UP TO 35 KNOTS BY EARLY EVENING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CAPE/ISLANDS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.  HOWEVER...A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN A FEW BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS.
ISOLATED POCKETS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR.  SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS
CONTINUE ON THE COASTAL PLAIN DURING THE EVENING...PERHAPS UP TO 35
KNOTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

INITIAL -SHRA EARLY SUNDAY WITH LOW-END VFR FOLLOWED BY SOME BRIEF
IMPROVEMENT. WINDS TURNING S.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CONDITIONS DETERIORATE MVFR-LIFR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
WITH +RA AND STRONG S-WINDS WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS POSSIBLE...
OTHERWISE LLWS IMPACTS WITH 50 KT S-WINDS 2 KFT AGL. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE BY MIDDAY...BUT COULD SEE CONTINUED SW-WINDS AROUND 25 KTS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

W-FLOW WITH MAINLY VFR.

WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

AN OFFSHORE STORM SYSTEM COULD BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ESPECIALLY
TO THE SE-TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  NORTHWEST SMALL CRAFT WIND GUSTS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.  THIS A RESULT OF A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST...DECREASING THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC ON SAT ALLOWING FOR A RETURN
SOUTHWEST FLOW OF AIR OVER THE WATERS.  THERE IS A PRETTY GOOD WEST
TO SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL JET AND GIVEN THE AIRMASS IS STILL RELATIVELY
COLD EXPECT DECENT MIXING OVER THE OCEAN.  THEREFORE...HAVE ISSUED A
GALE WATCH FOR MOST OF OUR OPEN WATERS FROM MID AFTERNOON SAT INTO
SAT NIGHT.  THERE IS ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD
OF 35 KNOT WIND GUSTS.  SEAS WILL LIKELY BUILD TO BETWEEN 6 AND 9
FEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS.  THE NEXT SHIFT CAN EITHER UPGRADE
TO STRONG SMALL CRAFTS OR LOW END GALE WARNINGS.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CONDITIONS IMPROVING AS SW-WINDS TURN S AND RELAX. WILL SEE WAVE
ACTION DISSIPATE BELOW SMALL-CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CONDITIONS DETERIORATE INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH RAIN OVER THE WATERS
AND EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS. VISIBILITY IMPACTS POSSIBLE. WINDS
INCREASING OUT OF THE S. GUSTS EXCEEDING GALE FORCE APPEAR LIKELY.
WAVES SUBSEQUENTLY INCREASING TO 10 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WINDS TURNING SW REMAINING BLUSTERY WITH GUSTS EXCEEDING 25 KTS.
WAVES MAINTAINED WITH HEIGHTS OF 8 TO 10 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS.

WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

AN OFFSHORE STORM SYSTEM COULD BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE
WATERS YET DETAILS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
     FOR ANZ231>235-237-250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ232>235-
     237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ231-251-
     255-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-254.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...FRANK/SIPPRELL
MARINE...FRANK/SIPPRELL




000
FXUS61 KBOX 212020
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
319 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

AFTER A DRY BUT VERY COLD NIGHT...TEMPERATURES MODERATE SOME
SATURDAY ON GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS.  THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A
SIGNIFICANT WARM UP SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY...BUT WITH A PERIOD
OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.  QUIET FOR TUESDAY BUT CONDITIONS
MAY CHANGE BY WEDNESDAY WITH THE THREAT OF A STORM SYSTEM. TURNING
COLDER INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...

315 PM UPDATE...

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST.
THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT ALONG WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.  THE EXCEPTION TO THAT WILL BE THE OUTER-
CAPE...WHERE SOME OCEAN EFFECT CLOUDS MAY AFFECT THE REGION AT
TIMES.  OTHERWISE...GIVEN THE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...SHOULD BE A
NICE SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING ONCE WINDS DECOUPLE.  THIS WILL
RESULT IN TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

LOW TEMPS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT AROUND 10 DEGREES ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST NH/NORTHWEST MA...TO MAINLY THE TEENS ELSEWHERE.  THE
URBAN HEAT ISLANDS OF DOWNTOWN BOSTON/PROVIDENCE WILL BE THE MILD
SPOTS...WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 20 TO 25 DEGREE RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC ALLOWING FOR STRONG MID
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION TO DEVELOP.  THE RESPONSE WILL BE AN INCREASE
IN MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS AS THE DAY WEARS ON...BUT IT WILL
REMAIN DRY GIVEN THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

DESPITE THE WARM ADVECTION ALOFT...IT WILL TAKE TIME FOR THAT TO BE
COMPLETELY REALIZED AT THE SURFACE.  WHILE IT WILL BE MILDER THAN
TODAY...HIGH TEMPS WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE UPPER
30S AND LOWER 40S WITH SOME MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S ON THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS.  HOWEVER...EXPECTING SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH
TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND PERHAPS A BIT STRONGER ALONG THE FAR
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.  THIS WILL STILL MAKE IT FEEL RATHER
CHILLY OUTSIDE FOR NOVEMBER STANDARDS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...

A MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SAT NIGHT.
THERE STILL SHOULD BE ENOUGH FORCING TO BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SCATTERED LIGHT PRECIPITATION.  WHILE IT CERTAINLY WILL BE TOO WARM
ALOFT FOR ANY SNOW...THE BIGGEST QUESTION IS WILL IT BE COLD ENOUGH
AT THE SURFACE FOR SOME POCKETS OF SPOTTY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS
THE INTERIOR.  ITS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE AND WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED...BUT ITS NOT AN IDEAL SETUP.  THERE IS A LOT OF WIND OFF
THE DECK  AND PROBABLY ENOUGH TO PREVENT MOST AREAS FROM DECOUPLING.
 GIVEN WERE +4C AT 850 MB SOME OF THIS MILDER AIR WILL BE ABLE TO
MIX DOWN. THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL LIGHT ICING THREAT...BUT
STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED POCKETS IN THE DEEPER VALLEY
LOCATIONS.  LOW TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO MIDDLE 30S
DURING THE EVENING...BUT SHOULD RISE SOME OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

- TURNING WARMER AND WET MONDAY
- A POSSIBLE MIDWEEK STORM...ESPECIALLY FOR SE NEW ENGLAND
- LOOKING COLDER INTO THANKSGIVING

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL CONSENSUS...

TRENDING +AO/NAO WITH NEAR-NEUTRAL PNA SUGGESTS A MORE PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN AND MILD. NO SURPRISE TO SEE A LACK OF DEEP CLOSED-LOW H5
DISTURBANCES...THOUGH AN ACTIVE PATTERN WITH ABUNDANCE OF PACIFIC-
ORIGIN WAVES MAINTAINING TROUGHING BETWEEN SECTORS OF ABOVE-AVERAGE
OCEAN TEMPERATURES OVER THE NE-PACIFIC AND NW-ATLANTIC.

SOME OF THOSE WAVES ARE WELL OUT IN THE PACIFIC AND HAVE NOT EVEN
BEEN SAMPLED. THE WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WINTER-STORM POTENTIAL
FOR THE MIDWEEK / THANKSGIVING PERIOD IS JUST S OF THE FURTHEST E
ALEUTAIN ISLANDS OF ALASKA. NOTING THIS...HAVE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE
THROUGH EARLY-NEXT WEEK WITH THE FORECAST...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE FOR A
POTENTIAL MIDWEEK STORM. WILL HIT UP THE DETAILS BELOW.

SO FOR SUNDAY...

CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK TROUGH DISTURBANCE.
DISSIPATING BENEATH A MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE / SUBSIDENCE. BENEATH
THE WARM-SECTOR AND RETURN S-FLOW ROUND THE HIGH PUSHING OFF INTO
THE ATLANTIC...H925 TEMPERATURES NEARLY +10C...MAY SEE HIGHS WARM
WELL INTO THE 50S WITH ANY SUNSHINE.

AS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...

WARM-FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING BROADSCALE LIFT AHEAD OF A DEEPENING LOW
ACROSS THE C-CONUS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION BECOMES THE FOCUS
FOR RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. NON-DIURNAL WARMING TREND OVERNIGHT. ALL-
RAIN EVENT. MAIN CONCERNS ARE WITH BOTH WINDS AND RAIN.

WITH WINDS: STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET CENTERED AROUND MONDAY MORNING WITH
WINDS 1-2 KFT AGL MODEL-CONSENSUS AVERAGING AROUND 50 MPH /45 KTS/.
SUGGESTED BOUNDARY-LAYER DECOUPLING BENEATH MUCH WARMER AIR BETWEEN
H925-85. BUT IF 2M TEMPERATURES ARE WARMER AS FORECAST FOR SUNDAY
COULD BE WARMER SUNDAY NIGHT AIDING IN LOW-LEVEL MIXING. ALSO NEED
TO CONSIDER ANY HEAVY RAIN WHICH COULD ALSO AID WITH DRAGGING FASTER
MOMENTUM TO THE SURFACE. OVERALL: MAIN CONCERN ACROSS SE NEW ENGLAND
AND HIGH TERRAIN ABOVE 1 KFT. WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE NECESSARY. CIPS
ANALOG GUIDANCE HAS JUST ABOVE 50-PERCENT FOR WINDS > 35 MPH.

WITH RAIN: BROADSCALE ASCENT OF THE WARM-CONVEYER-BELT WITH PWATS UP
TO 1.5-INCHES AND ANOMALOUS HIGH-THETAE AIR. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
NOSE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET TO THE PARENT WARM-FRONT. EXPECT A BROAD
NW-SE BAND OF RAIN WITH PERHAPS AN EMBEDDED LINE OF HEAVIER RAIN. IT
MOVES THROUGH NOTABLY QUICK. MODEL-CONSENSUS AVERAGE RAIN AMOUNTS
ARE AROUND 0.50 - 0.75 INCHES. AM NOT EXPECTING ANY FLOOD ISSUES.

INTO MONDAY...

RAINS FOR THE MORNING...IMPROVING AFTERNOON. IF WE CLEAR AS H925
TEMPERATURES WARM TO +14C THEN WE COULD POSSIBLY SEE HIGHS INTO THE
MID- TO UPPER-60S /+18C/ POSSIBLY TO NEAR 70. MODEL-CONSENSUS H925
WINDS AVERAGE AROUND 45 MPH /40 KTS/ AND WITH WARMER CONDITIONS
COULD SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR MIXING OUT TO H9 AND MOMENTUM MIX-DOWN.
WILL HINT AT THIS IN THE FORECAST...BUT MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

WILL GO WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS...BUT THE MAIN PUMP OF MOISTURE
SHOULD BE WELL OFFSHORE. OTHERWISE THE MAIN COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO
THE DEEPENING LOW LIFTING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION SWEEPS
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. EXPECTING DRY AND COOLER WEATHER FOR TUESDAY...
PERHAPS CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...

JUST TOO EARLY TO SAY. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS VARY
CONSIDERABLY WITH SURFACE LOW CENTERS AROUND THE ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH
KEY UPON A LOW SE OF THE 40N / 70W BENCHMARK AROUND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HAVE CONCERNS FOR SE NEW ENGLAND WHICH COULD SEE THE GREATEST IMPACT
WHILE NOTING A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER S-CANADA /WITH THE CENTER
OVER THE C-CONUS/. THE GFS-UPGRADED /T1534/ IS A FAR OUTLIER AND IS
NOT CONSIDERED WITH THIS FORECAST.

EVALUATING SYNOPTICS...THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A COASTAL STORM
BUT MORE OF A WAVE LOW ALONG THE OFFSHORE STALLED FRONT. AS BEEN THE
CASE THIS YEAR...COLD AIR HAS BEEN PLUNGING INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS
BUT ITS TRUE BITE REMAINS MAINLY N/W OF OUR REGION. DO HAVE SOME
CONFIDENCE THAT THE WAVE LOW WILL HUG CLOSER TO THE COAST. THEN IT
COMES TO BREAKING DOWN TIMING / ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS / THERMAL FIELDS
WHICH RIGHT NOW ARE AGAIN TOO EARLY TO DIAGNOSE. THERE HAS BEEN A
CONSISTENT SIGNAL. STORM BEARS WATCHING.

EXPECTING A RETURN OF ARCTIC AIR BEHIND WHATEVER MIDWEEK SYSTEM THAT
MAY EMERGE. DAY 6-8 CIPS ANALOGS HAVE HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW-
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE SE-CONUS INTO THE OHIO-RIVER VALLEY
CENTERED AROUND THE LATE-THANKSGIVING WEEK PERIOD. EC ENSEMBLES AT
H85 HAVE THE FREEZING MARK PLUNGING TO NEARLY THE GULF COAST...WITH
-10C AIR INTO NEW ENGLAND BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

315 PM UPDATE...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR WITH GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WIND.

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR.  SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30
KNOTS DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON...PERHAPS UP TO 35 KNOTS BY EARLY EVENING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CAPE/ISLANDS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.  HOWEVER...A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN A FEW BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS.
ISOLATED POCKETS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR.  SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS
CONTINUE ON THE COASTAL PLAIN DURING THE EVENING...PERHAPS UP TO 35
KNOTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

INITIAL -SHRA EARLY SUNDAY WITH LOW-END VFR FOLLOWED BY SOME BRIEF
IMPROVEMENT. WINDS TURNING S.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CONDITIONS DETERIORATE MVFR-LIFR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
WITH +RA AND STRONG S-WINDS WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS POSSIBLE...
OTHERWISE LLWS IMPACTS WITH 50 KT S-WINDS 2 KFT AGL. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE BY MIDDAY...BUT COULD SEE CONTINUED SW-WINDS AROUND 25 KTS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

W-FLOW WITH MAINLY VFR.

WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

AN OFFSHORE STORM SYSTEM COULD BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ESPECIALLY
TO THE SE-TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  NORTHWEST SMALL CRAFT WIND GUSTS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.  THIS A RESULT OF A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST...DECREASING THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC ON SAT ALLOWING FOR A RETURN
SOUTHWEST FLOW OF AIR OVER THE WATERS.  THERE IS A PRETTY GOOD WEST
TO SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL JET AND GIVEN THE AIRMASS IS STILL RELATIVELY
COLD EXPECT DECENT MIXING OVER THE OCEAN.  THEREFORE...HAVE ISSUED A
GALE WATCH FOR MOST OF OUR OPEN WATERS FROM MID AFTERNOON SAT INTO
SAT NIGHT.  THERE IS ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD
OF 35 KNOT WIND GUSTS.  SEAS WILL LIKELY BUILD TO BETWEEN 6 AND 9
FEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS.  THE NEXT SHIFT CAN EITHER UPGRADE
TO STRONG SMALL CRAFTS OR LOW END GALE WARNINGS.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CONDITIONS IMPROVING AS SW-WINDS TURN S AND RELAX. WILL SEE WAVE
ACTION DISSIPATE BELOW SMALL-CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CONDITIONS DETERIORATE INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH RAIN OVER THE WATERS
AND EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS. VISIBILITY IMPACTS POSSIBLE. WINDS
INCREASING OUT OF THE S. GUSTS EXCEEDING GALE FORCE APPEAR LIKELY.
WAVES SUBSEQUENTLY INCREASING TO 10 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WINDS TURNING SW REMAINING BLUSTERY WITH GUSTS EXCEEDING 25 KTS.
WAVES MAINTAINED WITH HEIGHTS OF 8 TO 10 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS.

WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

AN OFFSHORE STORM SYSTEM COULD BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE
WATERS YET DETAILS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
     FOR ANZ231>235-237-250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ232>235-
     237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ231-251-
     255-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-254.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...FRANK/SIPPRELL
MARINE...FRANK/SIPPRELL




000
FXUS61 KBOX 212020
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
319 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

AFTER A DRY BUT VERY COLD NIGHT...TEMPERATURES MODERATE SOME
SATURDAY ON GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS.  THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A
SIGNIFICANT WARM UP SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY...BUT WITH A PERIOD
OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.  QUIET FOR TUESDAY BUT CONDITIONS
MAY CHANGE BY WEDNESDAY WITH THE THREAT OF A STORM SYSTEM. TURNING
COLDER INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...

315 PM UPDATE...

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST.
THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT ALONG WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.  THE EXCEPTION TO THAT WILL BE THE OUTER-
CAPE...WHERE SOME OCEAN EFFECT CLOUDS MAY AFFECT THE REGION AT
TIMES.  OTHERWISE...GIVEN THE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...SHOULD BE A
NICE SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING ONCE WINDS DECOUPLE.  THIS WILL
RESULT IN TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

LOW TEMPS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT AROUND 10 DEGREES ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST NH/NORTHWEST MA...TO MAINLY THE TEENS ELSEWHERE.  THE
URBAN HEAT ISLANDS OF DOWNTOWN BOSTON/PROVIDENCE WILL BE THE MILD
SPOTS...WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 20 TO 25 DEGREE RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC ALLOWING FOR STRONG MID
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION TO DEVELOP.  THE RESPONSE WILL BE AN INCREASE
IN MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS AS THE DAY WEARS ON...BUT IT WILL
REMAIN DRY GIVEN THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

DESPITE THE WARM ADVECTION ALOFT...IT WILL TAKE TIME FOR THAT TO BE
COMPLETELY REALIZED AT THE SURFACE.  WHILE IT WILL BE MILDER THAN
TODAY...HIGH TEMPS WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE UPPER
30S AND LOWER 40S WITH SOME MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S ON THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS.  HOWEVER...EXPECTING SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH
TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND PERHAPS A BIT STRONGER ALONG THE FAR
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.  THIS WILL STILL MAKE IT FEEL RATHER
CHILLY OUTSIDE FOR NOVEMBER STANDARDS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...

A MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SAT NIGHT.
THERE STILL SHOULD BE ENOUGH FORCING TO BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SCATTERED LIGHT PRECIPITATION.  WHILE IT CERTAINLY WILL BE TOO WARM
ALOFT FOR ANY SNOW...THE BIGGEST QUESTION IS WILL IT BE COLD ENOUGH
AT THE SURFACE FOR SOME POCKETS OF SPOTTY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS
THE INTERIOR.  ITS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE AND WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED...BUT ITS NOT AN IDEAL SETUP.  THERE IS A LOT OF WIND OFF
THE DECK  AND PROBABLY ENOUGH TO PREVENT MOST AREAS FROM DECOUPLING.
 GIVEN WERE +4C AT 850 MB SOME OF THIS MILDER AIR WILL BE ABLE TO
MIX DOWN. THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL LIGHT ICING THREAT...BUT
STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED POCKETS IN THE DEEPER VALLEY
LOCATIONS.  LOW TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO MIDDLE 30S
DURING THE EVENING...BUT SHOULD RISE SOME OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

- TURNING WARMER AND WET MONDAY
- A POSSIBLE MIDWEEK STORM...ESPECIALLY FOR SE NEW ENGLAND
- LOOKING COLDER INTO THANKSGIVING

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL CONSENSUS...

TRENDING +AO/NAO WITH NEAR-NEUTRAL PNA SUGGESTS A MORE PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN AND MILD. NO SURPRISE TO SEE A LACK OF DEEP CLOSED-LOW H5
DISTURBANCES...THOUGH AN ACTIVE PATTERN WITH ABUNDANCE OF PACIFIC-
ORIGIN WAVES MAINTAINING TROUGHING BETWEEN SECTORS OF ABOVE-AVERAGE
OCEAN TEMPERATURES OVER THE NE-PACIFIC AND NW-ATLANTIC.

SOME OF THOSE WAVES ARE WELL OUT IN THE PACIFIC AND HAVE NOT EVEN
BEEN SAMPLED. THE WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WINTER-STORM POTENTIAL
FOR THE MIDWEEK / THANKSGIVING PERIOD IS JUST S OF THE FURTHEST E
ALEUTAIN ISLANDS OF ALASKA. NOTING THIS...HAVE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE
THROUGH EARLY-NEXT WEEK WITH THE FORECAST...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE FOR A
POTENTIAL MIDWEEK STORM. WILL HIT UP THE DETAILS BELOW.

SO FOR SUNDAY...

CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK TROUGH DISTURBANCE.
DISSIPATING BENEATH A MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE / SUBSIDENCE. BENEATH
THE WARM-SECTOR AND RETURN S-FLOW ROUND THE HIGH PUSHING OFF INTO
THE ATLANTIC...H925 TEMPERATURES NEARLY +10C...MAY SEE HIGHS WARM
WELL INTO THE 50S WITH ANY SUNSHINE.

AS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...

WARM-FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING BROADSCALE LIFT AHEAD OF A DEEPENING LOW
ACROSS THE C-CONUS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION BECOMES THE FOCUS
FOR RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. NON-DIURNAL WARMING TREND OVERNIGHT. ALL-
RAIN EVENT. MAIN CONCERNS ARE WITH BOTH WINDS AND RAIN.

WITH WINDS: STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET CENTERED AROUND MONDAY MORNING WITH
WINDS 1-2 KFT AGL MODEL-CONSENSUS AVERAGING AROUND 50 MPH /45 KTS/.
SUGGESTED BOUNDARY-LAYER DECOUPLING BENEATH MUCH WARMER AIR BETWEEN
H925-85. BUT IF 2M TEMPERATURES ARE WARMER AS FORECAST FOR SUNDAY
COULD BE WARMER SUNDAY NIGHT AIDING IN LOW-LEVEL MIXING. ALSO NEED
TO CONSIDER ANY HEAVY RAIN WHICH COULD ALSO AID WITH DRAGGING FASTER
MOMENTUM TO THE SURFACE. OVERALL: MAIN CONCERN ACROSS SE NEW ENGLAND
AND HIGH TERRAIN ABOVE 1 KFT. WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE NECESSARY. CIPS
ANALOG GUIDANCE HAS JUST ABOVE 50-PERCENT FOR WINDS > 35 MPH.

WITH RAIN: BROADSCALE ASCENT OF THE WARM-CONVEYER-BELT WITH PWATS UP
TO 1.5-INCHES AND ANOMALOUS HIGH-THETAE AIR. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
NOSE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET TO THE PARENT WARM-FRONT. EXPECT A BROAD
NW-SE BAND OF RAIN WITH PERHAPS AN EMBEDDED LINE OF HEAVIER RAIN. IT
MOVES THROUGH NOTABLY QUICK. MODEL-CONSENSUS AVERAGE RAIN AMOUNTS
ARE AROUND 0.50 - 0.75 INCHES. AM NOT EXPECTING ANY FLOOD ISSUES.

INTO MONDAY...

RAINS FOR THE MORNING...IMPROVING AFTERNOON. IF WE CLEAR AS H925
TEMPERATURES WARM TO +14C THEN WE COULD POSSIBLY SEE HIGHS INTO THE
MID- TO UPPER-60S /+18C/ POSSIBLY TO NEAR 70. MODEL-CONSENSUS H925
WINDS AVERAGE AROUND 45 MPH /40 KTS/ AND WITH WARMER CONDITIONS
COULD SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR MIXING OUT TO H9 AND MOMENTUM MIX-DOWN.
WILL HINT AT THIS IN THE FORECAST...BUT MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

WILL GO WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS...BUT THE MAIN PUMP OF MOISTURE
SHOULD BE WELL OFFSHORE. OTHERWISE THE MAIN COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO
THE DEEPENING LOW LIFTING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION SWEEPS
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. EXPECTING DRY AND COOLER WEATHER FOR TUESDAY...
PERHAPS CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...

JUST TOO EARLY TO SAY. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS VARY
CONSIDERABLY WITH SURFACE LOW CENTERS AROUND THE ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH
KEY UPON A LOW SE OF THE 40N / 70W BENCHMARK AROUND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HAVE CONCERNS FOR SE NEW ENGLAND WHICH COULD SEE THE GREATEST IMPACT
WHILE NOTING A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER S-CANADA /WITH THE CENTER
OVER THE C-CONUS/. THE GFS-UPGRADED /T1534/ IS A FAR OUTLIER AND IS
NOT CONSIDERED WITH THIS FORECAST.

EVALUATING SYNOPTICS...THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A COASTAL STORM
BUT MORE OF A WAVE LOW ALONG THE OFFSHORE STALLED FRONT. AS BEEN THE
CASE THIS YEAR...COLD AIR HAS BEEN PLUNGING INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS
BUT ITS TRUE BITE REMAINS MAINLY N/W OF OUR REGION. DO HAVE SOME
CONFIDENCE THAT THE WAVE LOW WILL HUG CLOSER TO THE COAST. THEN IT
COMES TO BREAKING DOWN TIMING / ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS / THERMAL FIELDS
WHICH RIGHT NOW ARE AGAIN TOO EARLY TO DIAGNOSE. THERE HAS BEEN A
CONSISTENT SIGNAL. STORM BEARS WATCHING.

EXPECTING A RETURN OF ARCTIC AIR BEHIND WHATEVER MIDWEEK SYSTEM THAT
MAY EMERGE. DAY 6-8 CIPS ANALOGS HAVE HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW-
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE SE-CONUS INTO THE OHIO-RIVER VALLEY
CENTERED AROUND THE LATE-THANKSGIVING WEEK PERIOD. EC ENSEMBLES AT
H85 HAVE THE FREEZING MARK PLUNGING TO NEARLY THE GULF COAST...WITH
-10C AIR INTO NEW ENGLAND BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

315 PM UPDATE...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR WITH GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WIND.

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR.  SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30
KNOTS DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON...PERHAPS UP TO 35 KNOTS BY EARLY EVENING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CAPE/ISLANDS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.  HOWEVER...A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN A FEW BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS.
ISOLATED POCKETS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR.  SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS
CONTINUE ON THE COASTAL PLAIN DURING THE EVENING...PERHAPS UP TO 35
KNOTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

INITIAL -SHRA EARLY SUNDAY WITH LOW-END VFR FOLLOWED BY SOME BRIEF
IMPROVEMENT. WINDS TURNING S.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CONDITIONS DETERIORATE MVFR-LIFR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
WITH +RA AND STRONG S-WINDS WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS POSSIBLE...
OTHERWISE LLWS IMPACTS WITH 50 KT S-WINDS 2 KFT AGL. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE BY MIDDAY...BUT COULD SEE CONTINUED SW-WINDS AROUND 25 KTS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

W-FLOW WITH MAINLY VFR.

WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

AN OFFSHORE STORM SYSTEM COULD BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ESPECIALLY
TO THE SE-TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  NORTHWEST SMALL CRAFT WIND GUSTS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.  THIS A RESULT OF A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST...DECREASING THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC ON SAT ALLOWING FOR A RETURN
SOUTHWEST FLOW OF AIR OVER THE WATERS.  THERE IS A PRETTY GOOD WEST
TO SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL JET AND GIVEN THE AIRMASS IS STILL RELATIVELY
COLD EXPECT DECENT MIXING OVER THE OCEAN.  THEREFORE...HAVE ISSUED A
GALE WATCH FOR MOST OF OUR OPEN WATERS FROM MID AFTERNOON SAT INTO
SAT NIGHT.  THERE IS ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD
OF 35 KNOT WIND GUSTS.  SEAS WILL LIKELY BUILD TO BETWEEN 6 AND 9
FEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS.  THE NEXT SHIFT CAN EITHER UPGRADE
TO STRONG SMALL CRAFTS OR LOW END GALE WARNINGS.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CONDITIONS IMPROVING AS SW-WINDS TURN S AND RELAX. WILL SEE WAVE
ACTION DISSIPATE BELOW SMALL-CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CONDITIONS DETERIORATE INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH RAIN OVER THE WATERS
AND EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS. VISIBILITY IMPACTS POSSIBLE. WINDS
INCREASING OUT OF THE S. GUSTS EXCEEDING GALE FORCE APPEAR LIKELY.
WAVES SUBSEQUENTLY INCREASING TO 10 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WINDS TURNING SW REMAINING BLUSTERY WITH GUSTS EXCEEDING 25 KTS.
WAVES MAINTAINED WITH HEIGHTS OF 8 TO 10 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS.

WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

AN OFFSHORE STORM SYSTEM COULD BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE
WATERS YET DETAILS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
     FOR ANZ231>235-237-250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ232>235-
     237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ231-251-
     255-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-254.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...FRANK/SIPPRELL
MARINE...FRANK/SIPPRELL




000
FXUS61 KOKX 212017
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
317 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES NEARLY OVERHEAD TONIGHT BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE
ON SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT THEN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH SUNDAY AND
LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN STALLS OFFSHORE THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE MAY RIDE ALONG THE FRONT AND
PASS TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY...WITH ANOTHER LOW POSSIBLY TRACKING
EAST FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE TN/OH VALLEYS WILL SLIDE TO THE
EAST TONIGHT...PARKING ITSELF OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY
SATURDAY MORNING.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 MPH THIS EVENING...AND THEN WITH
HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA...SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT. AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT...WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 5 MPH OR LESS.

AS A RESULT OF THE CLEAR SKIES AND NEARLY CALM WINDS...CAN EXPECT
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS. USED A BLEND OF MET/MAV MOS
GUIDANCE TO START...BUT THEN DROPPED LOWS FROM 5-7 DEGREES ACROSS
THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
CT...AND ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND. FLY IN THE OINTMENT COULD BE
SOME WEAK H5 SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
AFTER 06Z SATURDAY. ANY CLOUDS THAT DEVELOP WILL INHIBIT
RADIATIONAL COOLING...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST. ALSO...WITH SFC DEW POINTS MAINLY IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS...IT IS POSSIBLE THE CURRENT OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMP FORECAST MAY NOT BE COLD ENOUGH IN SOME SPOTS.

THE URBAN HEAT ISLAND EFFECT WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN NYC IN
THE LOW TO MID 20S. OTHERWISE...LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER
TEENS TO AROUND 20 FOR MOST COASTAL AREAS...AND AS LOW AS THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THESE TEMPS ARE
15-20 AND AS LOW AS 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MOSTLY SUNNY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY SATURDAY AS HIGH PRES CONTINUES
TO DEPART. SW FLOW WILL USHER A MILDER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA...AND IN THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS. THESE
TEMPS...HOWEVER...ARE STILL 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY AND AT NIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. SOME LIGHT...OVERRUNNING
PRECIP WILL DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. BEST FOCUS WILL
BE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ZONES WHERE POPS WILL BE LOW CHANCE...AND
WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE MOST ELSEWHERE. WITH SFC TEMPS BELOW
FREEZING ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF NE NJ...THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY...SOUTHERN CT AND THE PINE BARRENS OF EASTERN LONG
ISLAND...PTYPE COULD BE FREEZING RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES AND
FREEZING RAIN/RAIN FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. NYC/LONG ISLAND SHOULD
STAY AS PLAIN RAIN...WITH SOME FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE FOR THE PINE
BARRENS OF LONG ISLAND.

LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S INLAND
AND IN THE MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS NYC/LONG ISLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EARLY SUNDAY...WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES NORTH OF THE
REGION...WITH UPPER RIDGING QUICKLY BUILDING DURING THE DAY. THIS IS
IN RESPONSE TO DIGGING MID WEST TROUGH.

THE RIDGE GIVES WAY TO SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE THAT TRACKS
NORTHEAST...PASSING JUST TO THE WEST OF THE AREA EARLY MONDAY.
MEANWHILE...MAIN TROUGH AMPLIFIES AND CLOSES OFF ACROSS THE UPPER
MID WEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS CLOSED LOW WEAKENS AND LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEK AS MAIN TROUGH SLOWLY MAKES EASTWARD
PROGRESS. TROUGH AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

AT THE SURFACE...A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH SUNDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE WARM FRONT
MOVES THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AS LOCAL AREA BECOMES WARM SECTORED. THE
DEEP LOW PRESSURE PASSES ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH BY TUESDAY. THIS FRONT SETTLES EAST OF THE AREA MID WEEK AS
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES ALONG IT...LIKELY PASSING JUST
SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK. BY THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE AND FRONT TO
THE WEST APPROACHES. WITH UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVERHEAD LATE
THURSDAY/FRIDAY...SFC LOW PRESSURE MAY INTENSIFY OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY.

AS FOR WEATHER...ANY LINGERING LIGHT RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN ENDS
SUNDAY. TEMPS WARM INTO THE LOWER 50S. WITH SOUTH
WINDS...TEMPERATURES REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD SUNDAY NIGHT FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR...THEN WARM INTO THE 60S MONDAY AS AREA BECOMES WARM
SECTORED.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO GRADUALLY FALL
BACK CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS BY MID TO LATE WEEK.

POPS AND WEATHER WILL DEPEND ON EVENTUAL PLACEMENT OF LOW PRESSURE
MID WEEK AND AGAIN LATE WEEK. KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE FOR
NOW...WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITIES EAST OF NYC. WEATHER TYPE WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND PASSES SOUTH OF
THE AREA SATURDAY.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. FEW TO SCT CU THIS EVENING...WITH
SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING.

GUSTY NW WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING.

WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST AND WILL BE QUITE LIGHT LATE TONIGHT.
SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO 8-12 KTS AFTER 14-15Z SATURDAY.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING...AND
GUSTS BECOME LESS FREQUENT. TIMING OF THIS TRANSITION MAY BE OFF
AN HOUR OR TWO. OTHERWISE...WINDS RIGHT AROUND 310 MAGNETIC.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING...AND
GUSTS BECOME LESS FREQUENT. TIMING OF THIS TRANSITION MAY BE OFF
AN HOUR OR TWO. OTHERWISE...WINDS RIGHT AROUND OR JUST LEFT OF 310
MAGNETIC.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING...AND
GUSTS BECOME LESS FREQUENT. TIMING OF THIS TRANSITION MAY BE OFF
AN HOUR OR TWO. OTHERWISE...WINDS RIGHT AROUND 310 MAGNETIC.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS BECOME LESS FREQUENT AFTER 22-23Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS BECOME LESS FREQUENT AFTER 22-23Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS BECOME LESS FREQUENT AFTER 22-23Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SAT THROUGH WED...
.SAT AFTERNOON-SAT NIGHT...VFR. SW WINDS 10-15 GUSTS UP TO 20 KT DURING THE
DAYTIME.
.SUN...VFR.
.SUN NIGHT-MON...BECOMING MVFR/IFR. POSSIBLY SUB-IFR. RA AND FG
WITH LLWS POSSIBLE.
.MON NIGHT-TUE...VFR.
.WED...MAINLY VFR...ALTHOUGH POSSIBLE RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX MAY
IMPACT THE AREA...ESPECIALLY EAST OF NYC METRO.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDS CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR LI SOUND/LI BAYS/NY
HARBOR/WESTERN OCEAN WATERS. FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN OCEAN
WATERS...CONDS WILL FALL BELOW SCA CONDS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

TRANQUIL CONDS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING
OVER THE WATERS. THAT HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY...AND THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SCA CONDS LIKELY FOR AT
LEAST THE OCEAN WATERS LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

WESTERLY WINDS SHIFT TOWARD THE SW SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES. SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AHEAD
OF AND THEN BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH A SLIGHT SHIFT FROM S/SE TO S/SW.

THEN WINDS SHIFT AGAIN BACK TO THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THESE WINDS TURN TOWARD THE NW TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE
WATERS MAY TURN THE WINDS TOWARD THE N/NW LATE WEDNESDAY.

WINDS REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. IN FACT GALES ARE
POSSIBLE MONDAY BEHIND THE WARM FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT.

WINDS DO DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BRIEFLY AS THE HIGH BUILDS.

SEAS SHOULD REMAIN ROUGH THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY CONDS THROUGH SATURDAY...AND ONLY LIGHT PRECIP POSSIBLE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-
     335-338-340-345-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FIG/MPS
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...FIG/MPS
HYDROLOGY...FIG/MPS













000
FXUS61 KOKX 212017
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
317 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES NEARLY OVERHEAD TONIGHT BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE
ON SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT THEN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH SUNDAY AND
LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN STALLS OFFSHORE THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE MAY RIDE ALONG THE FRONT AND
PASS TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY...WITH ANOTHER LOW POSSIBLY TRACKING
EAST FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE TN/OH VALLEYS WILL SLIDE TO THE
EAST TONIGHT...PARKING ITSELF OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY
SATURDAY MORNING.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 MPH THIS EVENING...AND THEN WITH
HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA...SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT. AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT...WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 5 MPH OR LESS.

AS A RESULT OF THE CLEAR SKIES AND NEARLY CALM WINDS...CAN EXPECT
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS. USED A BLEND OF MET/MAV MOS
GUIDANCE TO START...BUT THEN DROPPED LOWS FROM 5-7 DEGREES ACROSS
THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
CT...AND ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND. FLY IN THE OINTMENT COULD BE
SOME WEAK H5 SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
AFTER 06Z SATURDAY. ANY CLOUDS THAT DEVELOP WILL INHIBIT
RADIATIONAL COOLING...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST. ALSO...WITH SFC DEW POINTS MAINLY IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS...IT IS POSSIBLE THE CURRENT OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMP FORECAST MAY NOT BE COLD ENOUGH IN SOME SPOTS.

THE URBAN HEAT ISLAND EFFECT WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN NYC IN
THE LOW TO MID 20S. OTHERWISE...LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER
TEENS TO AROUND 20 FOR MOST COASTAL AREAS...AND AS LOW AS THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THESE TEMPS ARE
15-20 AND AS LOW AS 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MOSTLY SUNNY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY SATURDAY AS HIGH PRES CONTINUES
TO DEPART. SW FLOW WILL USHER A MILDER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA...AND IN THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS. THESE
TEMPS...HOWEVER...ARE STILL 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY AND AT NIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. SOME LIGHT...OVERRUNNING
PRECIP WILL DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. BEST FOCUS WILL
BE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ZONES WHERE POPS WILL BE LOW CHANCE...AND
WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE MOST ELSEWHERE. WITH SFC TEMPS BELOW
FREEZING ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF NE NJ...THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY...SOUTHERN CT AND THE PINE BARRENS OF EASTERN LONG
ISLAND...PTYPE COULD BE FREEZING RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES AND
FREEZING RAIN/RAIN FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. NYC/LONG ISLAND SHOULD
STAY AS PLAIN RAIN...WITH SOME FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE FOR THE PINE
BARRENS OF LONG ISLAND.

LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S INLAND
AND IN THE MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS NYC/LONG ISLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EARLY SUNDAY...WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES NORTH OF THE
REGION...WITH UPPER RIDGING QUICKLY BUILDING DURING THE DAY. THIS IS
IN RESPONSE TO DIGGING MID WEST TROUGH.

THE RIDGE GIVES WAY TO SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE THAT TRACKS
NORTHEAST...PASSING JUST TO THE WEST OF THE AREA EARLY MONDAY.
MEANWHILE...MAIN TROUGH AMPLIFIES AND CLOSES OFF ACROSS THE UPPER
MID WEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS CLOSED LOW WEAKENS AND LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEK AS MAIN TROUGH SLOWLY MAKES EASTWARD
PROGRESS. TROUGH AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

AT THE SURFACE...A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH SUNDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE WARM FRONT
MOVES THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AS LOCAL AREA BECOMES WARM SECTORED. THE
DEEP LOW PRESSURE PASSES ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH BY TUESDAY. THIS FRONT SETTLES EAST OF THE AREA MID WEEK AS
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES ALONG IT...LIKELY PASSING JUST
SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK. BY THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE AND FRONT TO
THE WEST APPROACHES. WITH UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVERHEAD LATE
THURSDAY/FRIDAY...SFC LOW PRESSURE MAY INTENSIFY OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY.

AS FOR WEATHER...ANY LINGERING LIGHT RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN ENDS
SUNDAY. TEMPS WARM INTO THE LOWER 50S. WITH SOUTH
WINDS...TEMPERATURES REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD SUNDAY NIGHT FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR...THEN WARM INTO THE 60S MONDAY AS AREA BECOMES WARM
SECTORED.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO GRADUALLY FALL
BACK CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS BY MID TO LATE WEEK.

POPS AND WEATHER WILL DEPEND ON EVENTUAL PLACEMENT OF LOW PRESSURE
MID WEEK AND AGAIN LATE WEEK. KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE FOR
NOW...WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITIES EAST OF NYC. WEATHER TYPE WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND PASSES SOUTH OF
THE AREA SATURDAY.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. FEW TO SCT CU THIS EVENING...WITH
SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING.

GUSTY NW WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING.

WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST AND WILL BE QUITE LIGHT LATE TONIGHT.
SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO 8-12 KTS AFTER 14-15Z SATURDAY.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING...AND
GUSTS BECOME LESS FREQUENT. TIMING OF THIS TRANSITION MAY BE OFF
AN HOUR OR TWO. OTHERWISE...WINDS RIGHT AROUND 310 MAGNETIC.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING...AND
GUSTS BECOME LESS FREQUENT. TIMING OF THIS TRANSITION MAY BE OFF
AN HOUR OR TWO. OTHERWISE...WINDS RIGHT AROUND OR JUST LEFT OF 310
MAGNETIC.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING...AND
GUSTS BECOME LESS FREQUENT. TIMING OF THIS TRANSITION MAY BE OFF
AN HOUR OR TWO. OTHERWISE...WINDS RIGHT AROUND 310 MAGNETIC.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS BECOME LESS FREQUENT AFTER 22-23Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS BECOME LESS FREQUENT AFTER 22-23Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS BECOME LESS FREQUENT AFTER 22-23Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SAT THROUGH WED...
.SAT AFTERNOON-SAT NIGHT...VFR. SW WINDS 10-15 GUSTS UP TO 20 KT DURING THE
DAYTIME.
.SUN...VFR.
.SUN NIGHT-MON...BECOMING MVFR/IFR. POSSIBLY SUB-IFR. RA AND FG
WITH LLWS POSSIBLE.
.MON NIGHT-TUE...VFR.
.WED...MAINLY VFR...ALTHOUGH POSSIBLE RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX MAY
IMPACT THE AREA...ESPECIALLY EAST OF NYC METRO.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDS CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR LI SOUND/LI BAYS/NY
HARBOR/WESTERN OCEAN WATERS. FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN OCEAN
WATERS...CONDS WILL FALL BELOW SCA CONDS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

TRANQUIL CONDS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING
OVER THE WATERS. THAT HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY...AND THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SCA CONDS LIKELY FOR AT
LEAST THE OCEAN WATERS LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

WESTERLY WINDS SHIFT TOWARD THE SW SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES. SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AHEAD
OF AND THEN BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH A SLIGHT SHIFT FROM S/SE TO S/SW.

THEN WINDS SHIFT AGAIN BACK TO THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THESE WINDS TURN TOWARD THE NW TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE
WATERS MAY TURN THE WINDS TOWARD THE N/NW LATE WEDNESDAY.

WINDS REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. IN FACT GALES ARE
POSSIBLE MONDAY BEHIND THE WARM FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT.

WINDS DO DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BRIEFLY AS THE HIGH BUILDS.

SEAS SHOULD REMAIN ROUGH THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY CONDS THROUGH SATURDAY...AND ONLY LIGHT PRECIP POSSIBLE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-
     335-338-340-345-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FIG/MPS
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...FIG/MPS
HYDROLOGY...FIG/MPS












000
FXUS61 KALY 211808
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
108 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES
WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH COLD AND BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS.  A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT MIXED
PRECIPITATION...INCLUDING SOME FREEZING RAIN...TO THE REGION
SATURDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. A MILDER AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
IN TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND...BEFORE SOME RAIN ARRIVES EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1243 PM EST...LAKE EFFECT SNOW HAS TRANSITIONED INTO MULTI
BANDS...EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL NY AND ACROSS THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY
AND INTO THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY. SOME UPSLOPE
SNOW SHOWERS ARE ALSO OCCURRING IN THE SRN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND
BERKSHIRES AS WELL. MESOSCALE MODELS AREN/T PICKING UP ON THIS
ACTIVITY...BUT WILL GENERALLY EXPECT THESE SNOW SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE AREA LOWERS THE INVERSION HEIGHT...AND CAUSES MUCH OF THE
LAKE EFFECT TO END. ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY JUST BE
A COATING...ALTHOUGH A FEW SPOTS IN THE HIGHEST SPOTS IN THE
WESTERN FACING SLOPES OF THE TACONICS/BERKSHIRES MAY SEE CLOSE TO
AN INCH.

WITH COLD 850 HPA TEMPS IN PLACE /ABOUT -14 TO -15 DEGREES
C/...GOOD MIXING WILL OCCUR. THIS WILL ALLOW NW WINDS TO BE GUSTY
AT TIMES...WITH A FEW GUSTS OVER 25 KTS...ESP AT KALB...WHERE AIR
IS FUNNELED DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY
BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S FOR VALLEY
AREAS...AND UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN.

TONIGHT...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION.
AS THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LOWERS...THIS WILL WEAKEN THE LAKE SNOW
BAND EVEN MORE...BUT IT STILL MIGHT CONTINUE AS THE FLOW TURNS BACK
TO MORE OF A WESTERLY MEAN FLOW WHICH WOULD PUT THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
BAND ACROSS THE NORTHERN RIM OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
SOME OF THESE AREAS.

REMAINING REGIONS OF THE EASTERN NEW YORK AND ALL OF ADJACENT
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WILL BE DRY WITH A MAINLY CLEAR SKY TONIGHT. THE
WIND WILL LIGHTEN. THIS WILL MAKE THIS NIGHT THE BEST RADIATIONAL
COOLING NIGHT OF THIS COLD SPELL THUS FAR FOR MOST AREAS OUTSIDE OF
THE ADIRONDACKS. LOOK FOR LOWS TO TUMBLE TO THE TEENS FROM ALBANY
SOUTHWARD. UP WELL NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...LOWS WILL RANGE
5 TO 10 ABOVE. WHILE WE EXPECT MORE CLOUDS IN THE ADIRONDACKS...IF
ENOUGH THIN SPOTS IN THE CLOUDS WERE TO DEVELOP...SOME SNOW
SHELTERED VALLEYS COULD MAKE A RUN AT ZERO DEGREES...WHILE MOST OF
THE ADIRONDACKS WILL AVERAGE CLOSER TO 10 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...AFTER A COLD START...SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD START THE
DAY...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE RATHER QUICKLY FROM MID MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON AS MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT INTENSIFIES. GIVEN
THAT WE EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE FAIRLY QUICKLY...AND THAT TEMPS
WILL START OFF SO COLD...WE HAVE SIDED ON THE COLDER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE IN MOST AREAS...MID/UPPER 30S IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER 30S
ACROSS MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY
DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS...AND COULD REACH AREAS JUST W OF
THE HUDSON RIVER TOWARD OR JUST AFTER SUNSET. FORECAST THERMAL
PROFILES SUGGEST P-TYPE SHOULD START AS A LIGHT SNOW/SLEET MIX
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...AND PERHAPS SLEET/FREEZING RAIN ACROSS
THE MOHAWK VALLEY REGION.

SAT NT...MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT LIGHT
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO EXPAND E/NE ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
EVENING...AND PERSISTS INTERMITTENTLY THROUGH THE NIGHT...IN
ASSOCIATION WITH MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT...AS WELL AS SOME
ADDITIONAL DYNAMIC LIFT AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING NORTH OF
THE GREAT LAKES. AGAIN...THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THAT A LIGHT MIX
OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WOULD BE MOST LIKELY...ALTHOUGH COULD
CHANGE TO PLAIN RAIN LATER AT NIGHT IN VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY
SOUTH AND EAST AS SFC TEMPS RISE A BIT INTO AND THROUGH THE
LOWER/MID 30S. SINCE THE GROUND IS SO COLD...THE MAIN PROBLEM WITH
ANY FREEZING RAIN WOULD BE MAINLY TRAVEL RELATED...WITH SOME LIGHT
ICING POSSIBLE ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS
POTENTIAL IN THE HWOALY AT THIS TIME...BUT IF CONFIDENCE CONTINUES
TO INCREASE FOR THE OCCURRENCE OF FREEZING RAIN...THEN FREEZING
RAIN ADVISORIES WILL NEED TO BE ISSUED FOR AT LEAST PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS/LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION AND MOHAWK
VALLEY.

SUNDAY...MAIN THRUST OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DYNAMICS LIFT NORTH
AND EAST OF THE REGION...ALTHOUGH SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP MAY
STILL BE ONGOING INITIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS.
THEREAFTER...DESPITE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY BE TOUGH TO DISLODGE...ESP FOR AREAS NEAR AND N OF
INTERSTATE 90...WHERE LOW CLOUDS MAY PERSIST. HAVE SIDED ON THE
COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MOST AREAS...WITH MAX TEMPS EXPECTED
TO REACH 45-50 IN VALLEY AREAS...AND LOWER/MID 40S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. SOME LOWER 50S COULD OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS IN NW CT SHOULD MORE SUNSHINE
BE ABLE TO BREAK THROUGH.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES...AND A HEALTHY SURGE OF MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL
JET APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH...RAIN SHOULD DEVELOP FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. TEMPS MAY BRIEFLY FALL
INTO THE 30S IN THE EVENING...BEFORE RISING LATER AT NIGHT WITH
THE DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET MAX AND WARM ADVECTION. GENERALLY ONE
QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...WITH SOME
LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN SURGE OF WARM ADVECTION SHOULD LIFT
NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION MON MORNING...WHILE A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE MON AND PASSES THROUGH MON NT.
SO...THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN APPEARS TO BE MON MORNING...ESP
ACROSS N/E AREAS...TAPERING TO SHOWERS DURING THE DAY...WITH AN
INCREASED THREAT OF SHOWERS AGAIN MON NT WITH THE FROPA. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT SHOWERS BECOME SCATTERED MON AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW
BREAKS OF SUN POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS. DEPENDING ON IF ANY SUN
CAN BREAK THROUGH...TEMPS COULD SURGE INTO THE 60S. FOR
NOW...GIVEN THAT IT IS NOVEMBER WITH SUCH A LOW SUN ANGLE...WE
THINK THAT AT LEAST SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY HOLD ON...AND THEREFORE
WENT A BIT COOLER THAN MOST GUIDANCE...WITH MAINLY 55-60 IN
VALLEYS...AND UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...ALTHOUGH
HAVE INCLUDED SOME 60-65 TEMPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT. AGAIN...SHOULD MORE
SUBSTANTIAL BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP...EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS
COULD OCCUR. SHOWERY AND WINDY CONDITIONS FOR MON NT AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. SHOWERS COULD MIX WITH/END AS SNOW ACROSS SOME
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS TOWARD TUE AM...WITH
MIN TEMPS FALLING INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S.

TUE-TUE NT...AT THIS VANTAGE POINT...APPEARS GRADUAL COOLING COULD
COMMENCE...WITH PERHAPS SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD STILL BE RATHER
MILD...GENERALLY 50-55 IN VALLEYS...AND 40S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. TUE NT MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID 30S FOR
LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND 25-30 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
EXTENDED...AS THE 00Z/21 GFS AND MOST GEFS INDICATE A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE EAST COAST...KEEPING MOST OF THE
PRECIP WELL E OF THE REGION...WHILE THE 00Z/21 ECMWF SUGGESTS THAT
THIS WAVE TRACKS CLOSER TO THE COAST...AND THAT PRECIP EXPANDS
ACROSS AT LEAST THE S/E HALF OF THE REGION...IF NOT EVEN FURTHER
N AND W. THIS HAS BEEN A N/W TREND IN THE ECMWF FROM PREVIOUS
CYCLES. WILL HAVE TO WATCH OVERALL TRENDS VERY CLOSELY...AS THE
ECMWF ALSO SUGGESTS THAT UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES POTENTIALLY CLOSES OFF A MID LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY. ALTHOUGH THE MODEL SUGGESTS THAT THE OFFSHORE WAVE
REMAINS SEPARATE FROM THIS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY...THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY THAT THE TWO COULD PHASE SHOULD THAT ENERGY DIG MORE
QUICKLY...RESULTING IN A MUCH MORE POTENT EAST COAST STORM SYSTEM.
AT THIS TIME...HAVE INDICATED CHC POPS FOR AREAS S/E OF ALBANY FOR
A RAIN/SNOW MIX WED...AND SLIGHT CHC ELSEWHERE. DEPENDING ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THESE TWO ENTITIES...THURSDAY COULD BE RATHER
BLUSTERY WITH AT LEAST SOME PASSING SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.
TEMPS WED-THU WILL TREND BELOW NORMAL...WITH GENERALLY UPPER
30S/LOWER 40S FOR MAX TEMPS IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER 30S ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...18Z/SAT.

HEIGHTS WILL RISE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES TO OUR EAST AND RIDGING BUILDS IN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST AT THE SURFACE. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY. DECREASING CLOUD COVER WITH SKIES
EXPECTED TO BECOME CLEAR FOR A PERIOD THIS EVENING BEFORE HIGH
CIRRUS CLOUDS STREAM IN SATURDAY MORNING.

HAVE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION HAS RESULTED IN
BRISK AND GUSTY WINDS WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS DOWN THE MOHAWK
VALLEY AND ACROSS THE TACONICS AND BERKSHIRES. WINDS WILL DECREASE
THIS EVENING AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL DEVELOP AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...FZRA...SLEET.
SUN: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MON: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
MON NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUE: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE HSA THROUGH
SATURDAY...EXCEPT LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACK REGION AND THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL MOHAWK
VALLEY.

A WARM FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH TOTAL QPF LESS THAN A
QUARTER OF AN INCH.

MILDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S
SUNDAY...50S AND LOW 60S MONDAY AND 50S TUESDAY...WITH NIGHTTIME
LOWS MAINLY ABOVE FREEZING.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD BRING A HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH OF
RAINFALL TO THE HSA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS TUESDAY. AT THIS POINT NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE RAINFALL AND MINOR SNOW MELT ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/FRUGIS/HWJIV/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...KL/SNYDER/WASULA







000
FXUS61 KALY 211808
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
108 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES
WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH COLD AND BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS.  A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT MIXED
PRECIPITATION...INCLUDING SOME FREEZING RAIN...TO THE REGION
SATURDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. A MILDER AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
IN TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND...BEFORE SOME RAIN ARRIVES EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1243 PM EST...LAKE EFFECT SNOW HAS TRANSITIONED INTO MULTI
BANDS...EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL NY AND ACROSS THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY
AND INTO THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY. SOME UPSLOPE
SNOW SHOWERS ARE ALSO OCCURRING IN THE SRN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND
BERKSHIRES AS WELL. MESOSCALE MODELS AREN/T PICKING UP ON THIS
ACTIVITY...BUT WILL GENERALLY EXPECT THESE SNOW SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE AREA LOWERS THE INVERSION HEIGHT...AND CAUSES MUCH OF THE
LAKE EFFECT TO END. ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY JUST BE
A COATING...ALTHOUGH A FEW SPOTS IN THE HIGHEST SPOTS IN THE
WESTERN FACING SLOPES OF THE TACONICS/BERKSHIRES MAY SEE CLOSE TO
AN INCH.

WITH COLD 850 HPA TEMPS IN PLACE /ABOUT -14 TO -15 DEGREES
C/...GOOD MIXING WILL OCCUR. THIS WILL ALLOW NW WINDS TO BE GUSTY
AT TIMES...WITH A FEW GUSTS OVER 25 KTS...ESP AT KALB...WHERE AIR
IS FUNNELED DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY
BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S FOR VALLEY
AREAS...AND UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN.

TONIGHT...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION.
AS THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LOWERS...THIS WILL WEAKEN THE LAKE SNOW
BAND EVEN MORE...BUT IT STILL MIGHT CONTINUE AS THE FLOW TURNS BACK
TO MORE OF A WESTERLY MEAN FLOW WHICH WOULD PUT THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
BAND ACROSS THE NORTHERN RIM OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
SOME OF THESE AREAS.

REMAINING REGIONS OF THE EASTERN NEW YORK AND ALL OF ADJACENT
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WILL BE DRY WITH A MAINLY CLEAR SKY TONIGHT. THE
WIND WILL LIGHTEN. THIS WILL MAKE THIS NIGHT THE BEST RADIATIONAL
COOLING NIGHT OF THIS COLD SPELL THUS FAR FOR MOST AREAS OUTSIDE OF
THE ADIRONDACKS. LOOK FOR LOWS TO TUMBLE TO THE TEENS FROM ALBANY
SOUTHWARD. UP WELL NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...LOWS WILL RANGE
5 TO 10 ABOVE. WHILE WE EXPECT MORE CLOUDS IN THE ADIRONDACKS...IF
ENOUGH THIN SPOTS IN THE CLOUDS WERE TO DEVELOP...SOME SNOW
SHELTERED VALLEYS COULD MAKE A RUN AT ZERO DEGREES...WHILE MOST OF
THE ADIRONDACKS WILL AVERAGE CLOSER TO 10 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...AFTER A COLD START...SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD START THE
DAY...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE RATHER QUICKLY FROM MID MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON AS MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT INTENSIFIES. GIVEN
THAT WE EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE FAIRLY QUICKLY...AND THAT TEMPS
WILL START OFF SO COLD...WE HAVE SIDED ON THE COLDER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE IN MOST AREAS...MID/UPPER 30S IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER 30S
ACROSS MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY
DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS...AND COULD REACH AREAS JUST W OF
THE HUDSON RIVER TOWARD OR JUST AFTER SUNSET. FORECAST THERMAL
PROFILES SUGGEST P-TYPE SHOULD START AS A LIGHT SNOW/SLEET MIX
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...AND PERHAPS SLEET/FREEZING RAIN ACROSS
THE MOHAWK VALLEY REGION.

SAT NT...MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT LIGHT
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO EXPAND E/NE ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
EVENING...AND PERSISTS INTERMITTENTLY THROUGH THE NIGHT...IN
ASSOCIATION WITH MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT...AS WELL AS SOME
ADDITIONAL DYNAMIC LIFT AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING NORTH OF
THE GREAT LAKES. AGAIN...THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THAT A LIGHT MIX
OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WOULD BE MOST LIKELY...ALTHOUGH COULD
CHANGE TO PLAIN RAIN LATER AT NIGHT IN VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY
SOUTH AND EAST AS SFC TEMPS RISE A BIT INTO AND THROUGH THE
LOWER/MID 30S. SINCE THE GROUND IS SO COLD...THE MAIN PROBLEM WITH
ANY FREEZING RAIN WOULD BE MAINLY TRAVEL RELATED...WITH SOME LIGHT
ICING POSSIBLE ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS
POTENTIAL IN THE HWOALY AT THIS TIME...BUT IF CONFIDENCE CONTINUES
TO INCREASE FOR THE OCCURRENCE OF FREEZING RAIN...THEN FREEZING
RAIN ADVISORIES WILL NEED TO BE ISSUED FOR AT LEAST PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS/LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION AND MOHAWK
VALLEY.

SUNDAY...MAIN THRUST OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DYNAMICS LIFT NORTH
AND EAST OF THE REGION...ALTHOUGH SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP MAY
STILL BE ONGOING INITIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS.
THEREAFTER...DESPITE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY BE TOUGH TO DISLODGE...ESP FOR AREAS NEAR AND N OF
INTERSTATE 90...WHERE LOW CLOUDS MAY PERSIST. HAVE SIDED ON THE
COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MOST AREAS...WITH MAX TEMPS EXPECTED
TO REACH 45-50 IN VALLEY AREAS...AND LOWER/MID 40S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. SOME LOWER 50S COULD OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS IN NW CT SHOULD MORE SUNSHINE
BE ABLE TO BREAK THROUGH.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES...AND A HEALTHY SURGE OF MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL
JET APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH...RAIN SHOULD DEVELOP FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. TEMPS MAY BRIEFLY FALL
INTO THE 30S IN THE EVENING...BEFORE RISING LATER AT NIGHT WITH
THE DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET MAX AND WARM ADVECTION. GENERALLY ONE
QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...WITH SOME
LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN SURGE OF WARM ADVECTION SHOULD LIFT
NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION MON MORNING...WHILE A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE MON AND PASSES THROUGH MON NT.
SO...THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN APPEARS TO BE MON MORNING...ESP
ACROSS N/E AREAS...TAPERING TO SHOWERS DURING THE DAY...WITH AN
INCREASED THREAT OF SHOWERS AGAIN MON NT WITH THE FROPA. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT SHOWERS BECOME SCATTERED MON AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW
BREAKS OF SUN POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS. DEPENDING ON IF ANY SUN
CAN BREAK THROUGH...TEMPS COULD SURGE INTO THE 60S. FOR
NOW...GIVEN THAT IT IS NOVEMBER WITH SUCH A LOW SUN ANGLE...WE
THINK THAT AT LEAST SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY HOLD ON...AND THEREFORE
WENT A BIT COOLER THAN MOST GUIDANCE...WITH MAINLY 55-60 IN
VALLEYS...AND UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...ALTHOUGH
HAVE INCLUDED SOME 60-65 TEMPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT. AGAIN...SHOULD MORE
SUBSTANTIAL BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP...EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS
COULD OCCUR. SHOWERY AND WINDY CONDITIONS FOR MON NT AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. SHOWERS COULD MIX WITH/END AS SNOW ACROSS SOME
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS TOWARD TUE AM...WITH
MIN TEMPS FALLING INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S.

TUE-TUE NT...AT THIS VANTAGE POINT...APPEARS GRADUAL COOLING COULD
COMMENCE...WITH PERHAPS SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD STILL BE RATHER
MILD...GENERALLY 50-55 IN VALLEYS...AND 40S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. TUE NT MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID 30S FOR
LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND 25-30 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
EXTENDED...AS THE 00Z/21 GFS AND MOST GEFS INDICATE A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE EAST COAST...KEEPING MOST OF THE
PRECIP WELL E OF THE REGION...WHILE THE 00Z/21 ECMWF SUGGESTS THAT
THIS WAVE TRACKS CLOSER TO THE COAST...AND THAT PRECIP EXPANDS
ACROSS AT LEAST THE S/E HALF OF THE REGION...IF NOT EVEN FURTHER
N AND W. THIS HAS BEEN A N/W TREND IN THE ECMWF FROM PREVIOUS
CYCLES. WILL HAVE TO WATCH OVERALL TRENDS VERY CLOSELY...AS THE
ECMWF ALSO SUGGESTS THAT UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES POTENTIALLY CLOSES OFF A MID LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY. ALTHOUGH THE MODEL SUGGESTS THAT THE OFFSHORE WAVE
REMAINS SEPARATE FROM THIS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY...THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY THAT THE TWO COULD PHASE SHOULD THAT ENERGY DIG MORE
QUICKLY...RESULTING IN A MUCH MORE POTENT EAST COAST STORM SYSTEM.
AT THIS TIME...HAVE INDICATED CHC POPS FOR AREAS S/E OF ALBANY FOR
A RAIN/SNOW MIX WED...AND SLIGHT CHC ELSEWHERE. DEPENDING ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THESE TWO ENTITIES...THURSDAY COULD BE RATHER
BLUSTERY WITH AT LEAST SOME PASSING SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.
TEMPS WED-THU WILL TREND BELOW NORMAL...WITH GENERALLY UPPER
30S/LOWER 40S FOR MAX TEMPS IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER 30S ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...18Z/SAT.

HEIGHTS WILL RISE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES TO OUR EAST AND RIDGING BUILDS IN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST AT THE SURFACE. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY. DECREASING CLOUD COVER WITH SKIES
EXPECTED TO BECOME CLEAR FOR A PERIOD THIS EVENING BEFORE HIGH
CIRRUS CLOUDS STREAM IN SATURDAY MORNING.

HAVE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION HAS RESULTED IN
BRISK AND GUSTY WINDS WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS DOWN THE MOHAWK
VALLEY AND ACROSS THE TACONICS AND BERKSHIRES. WINDS WILL DECREASE
THIS EVENING AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL DEVELOP AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...FZRA...SLEET.
SUN: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MON: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
MON NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUE: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE HSA THROUGH
SATURDAY...EXCEPT LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACK REGION AND THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL MOHAWK
VALLEY.

A WARM FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH TOTAL QPF LESS THAN A
QUARTER OF AN INCH.

MILDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S
SUNDAY...50S AND LOW 60S MONDAY AND 50S TUESDAY...WITH NIGHTTIME
LOWS MAINLY ABOVE FREEZING.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD BRING A HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH OF
RAINFALL TO THE HSA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS TUESDAY. AT THIS POINT NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE RAINFALL AND MINOR SNOW MELT ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/FRUGIS/HWJIV/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...KL/SNYDER/WASULA








000
FXUS61 KBOX 211744
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1245 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BLUSTERY AND UNSEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS TODAY. TEMPERATURES
MODERATE SATURDAY WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS...THEN A SIGNIFICANT
WARM-UP IS IN STORE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A PERIOD OF RAIN. A COASTAL STORM MAY AFFECT THE
REGION SOMETIME DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BUT IT IS UNCERTAIN
HOW CLOSE IT WILL TRACK TO NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

1245 PM UPDATE...

SCATTERED TO BROKEN DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE OVER SPREAD MUCH OF
INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  MAY EVEN
SEE A PASSING FLURRY ACROSS SOUTHERN NH/NORTHWEST MA OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO. MAIN STORY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON WILL BE
UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPS.  HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO
AROUND 30 ACROSS THE INTERIOR HIGH TERRAIN...TO THE MIDDLE 30S IN
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.  EXCELLENT MIXING WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH.  THIS WILL RESULT IN WIND
CHILL VALUES IN THE TEENS...TO THE LOWER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...

TONIGHT...
CENTER OF HIGH PRES MOVES TO THE MID ATLC COAST BUT RIDGE AXIS
BUILDS INTO NEW ENG WHICH WILL RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WIND AS PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. GIVEN VERY DRY
AIRMASS IT WILL BE A COLD NIGHT AS DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
DEVELOPS. MINS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE TEENS...EXCEPT LOWER 20S
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. LOW PROB FOR SOME SINGLE NUMBER MIN
TEMPS W MA AND SW NH.

SATURDAY...
HIGH PRES BUILDS S OF NEW ENG WITH SUNSHINE GIVING WAY TO
INCREASING AFTERNOON CLOUDS AS LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES FROM THE WEST. INCREASING SW FLOW BRINGS MILDER AIR
INTO SNE AS PRONOUNCED LOW AND MID LEVEL WARMING OCCURS. AFTER A
RATHER COLD START...TEMPS WILL RECOVER INTO THE MID 30S TO LOWER
40S. 40 KT LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS BY LATE DAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO
GUSTY SW WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COAST WHERE BETTER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
WITH THE ECMWF AND GFS OPERATIONAL RUNS CONTINUING TO SHOW
MODERATE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MID TERM...A GENERAL BLEND WILL BE
USED AS A BASELINE. ITS NOT UNTIL LATER ABOUT MID WEEK THAT THE
STRONGEST DIVERGENCE IN MODEL SOLUTIONS EVEN AMONG
ENSEMBLES/MEANS...SO CONFIDENCE THROUGH MON-TUE REMAINS RELATIVELY
HIGH WHILE CONFIDENCE BECOMES LOW FROM MID NEXT WEEK THROUGH THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY PERIOD.

THE ISSUE IS LIKELY THE SHIFTING PATTERN THROUGH THE
PERIOD...STARTING WITH BUILDING RIDGE SUN-MON AS PHASING NORTHERN
AND SOUTHERN STREAM WAVES DEVELOP INTO OCCLUDING SYSTEM AROUND THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS DEVELOPING TROF IS THEN EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
DEEPEN AND DIG INTO A SLOWER LONGWAVE TROF TO THE
W...SIMILAR...THOUGH NOT AS COLD AS THIS WEEK/S DEEP TROUGH BUT
WITH THE AXIS FURTHER TO THE W. THEREFORE...TIME-MEAN JET REMAINS
SOUTHWESTERLY AND WARMING UNTIL THE CORE CAN SLIDE TO THE E LATER
IN THE WEEK. AGREE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER...THAT THIS
SUGGEST THE NEAR NORMAL TO WARM WEATHER CONTINUES UNTIL A COOLING
TREND OCCURS LATER IN THE WEEK.

DETAILS...

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN EVENING...
SFC WARM FRONT WILL BE NOSING IN FROM THE W WHILE SHIFTING TO THE
N WITH TIME TOWARD 12Z SUN. NOTE MODEST MID LVL ISENTROPIC LIFT
WITH SOME MOISTURE SUGGESTING LOW END CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIP
ESPECIALLY N OF THE MA PIKE AND W OF I-495. TIMING WILL BE THE KEY
HERE...AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTER THAT IF THE CLOUDS BUILD IN
TOO QUICKLY TEMPS MAY REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING WHILE
ALLOWANCE FOR MORE COOLING SUGGESTS THAT SFC TEMPS MAY BE A FEW
DEGREES BELOW FREEZING. THEREFORE...MAY HAVE TO MONITOR FOR LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN...IF THE TEMPS FALL BACK INTO THE MID-UPPER 20S
LIGHT ICING IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT AGAIN TOTAL RAINFALL
WOULD BE LIGHT AND TEMPS MAY PRECLUDE ANY IMPACTS. WILL NEED TO
WATCH THIS AS WE APPROACH. OTHERWISE SUN...WARMING EXPECTED WITH
AREAS REACHING THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S BY LATE IN THE DAY IN SPITE
OF INCREASING CLOUDS. DWPTS ALSO RISE AS WELL.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...
OCCLUDING LOW PRES TO THE W WILL PUSH 60-65 KT LLJ THROUGH THE
REGION DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MON. THIS WILL BE
COINCIDENT WITH 1.0 INCH PWATS /ABOUT 2 STD DEVIATIONS FROM
NORMAL/. THEREFORE...EXPECT SOME WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WITH MODEST
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS AS K VALUES HOVER AROUND 30...SUGGESTING HEAVY
RAIN. THIS COULD ALSO YIELD SOME STRONG WINDS AND POSSIBLY EVEN A
FINE-LINE DEVELOPMENT WHICH WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. OVERALL
RAINFALL VALUES OF 0.5-1.0 INCHES EXPECTED...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE. AFTER A LULL THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS CONTINUES INTO MON
EVENING AS THE UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE PIVOTS THROUGH. MILD WX
CONTINUES AS HIGHS COULD APPROACH THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60F.

TUE...
HIGH PRES BUILDS IN BRIEFLY FOR TUE. WARM TEMPS STILL EXPECTED AS
THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR REMAINS TO THE W. EXPECT HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

WED-WED NIGHT...
STILL UNCERTAINTY HERE...BUT WITH STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE
SOUTHEAST...A DEVELOPING WAVE OF LOW PRES MAY PASS JUST CLOSE
ENOUGH THE 40/70 BENCHMARK TO INITIATE TROWAL BASED PRECIP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SRN NEW ENGLAND. REGARDING THERMAL PROFILES...WHICH
ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE GIVEN BOTH OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
ARE ONLY RECENTLY CONVERGING ON THIS...TEMPS APPROACHING -6C TO
-10C AT H85 SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF WINTERY PRECIP IN THE
INTERIOR...BUT MAY BE TOO WARM ALONG THE COAST. STILL TOO
UNCERTAIN HERE TO MAKE ANY CALLS...BUT WORTH WATCHING GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL TRAVEL IMPLICATIONS.

THU-FRI...
DEPENDENT ON THE FINAL TIMING TRACK OF THE OFFSHORE SYSTEM...HIGH
PRES WOULD FOLLOW FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD...WITH COLDER DRIER AIR
BUILDING IN FROM THE NW.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

1245 PM UPDATE...

SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

THIS AFTERNOON...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS OF 20 TO 30
KNOTS.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR WITH DIMINISHING WIND.

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR.  SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30
KNOTS DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON...PERHAPS UP TO 35 KNOTS BY EARLY EVENING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CAPE/ISLANDS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.  HOWEVER...A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN A FEW BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS.
ISOLATED POCKETS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR.  SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS
CONTINUE ON THE COASTAL PLAIN DURING THE EVENING...PERHAPS UP TO 35
KNOTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. DIMINISHING WIND.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...CIGS/VSBYS LOWER TO MVFR/IFR IN RAIN/FOG.
SOUTH WIND AT 2000 FEET INCREASES TO 60-65 KNOTS ALONG THE COASTAL
PLAIN LATE NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING AND MAY GENERATE ANOTHER ROUND
OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN THAT AREA. CONDITIONS THEN IMPROVE TO VFR
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS.

A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AT NIGHT AND SHOULD
GENERATE BRIEF MVFR IN SHOWERS. WIND WILL SHIFT FROM SSW TO WSW WITH
THE WIND SHIFT.

TUESDAY...VFR. A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN EASTERN MASS/RI

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE THRU SATURDAY.

TODAY...WE CONVERTED GALE WARNINGS TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR
ALL WATERS. EXPECT WIND GUSTS TODAY WILL FALL JUST SHY OF GALES
WITH NW GUSTS INTO THE LOWER 30 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH SPEEDS DROPPING BELOW 20
KT LATE TONIGHT.

SATURDAY...EXPECT INCREASING SW WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AS DECENT
LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN STILL WARM SST...
GOOD MIXING OVER WATER SUPPORTS WIND GUSTS TO 30 KT WITH MARGINAL
GALES POSSIBLE BY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SAT NIGHT...SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST TO 35 KNOTS DURING
THE DAY AND THEN DIMINISH IN THE EVENING. SEAS 5-8 FEET WILL
DIMINISH IN THE EVENING.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...A WARM FRONT MOVES UP ACROSS THE WATERS. VSBYS
WILL LOWER TO 1-3 MILES IN RAIN AND FOG STARTING AROUND MIDNIGHT
CONTINUING INTO THE MORNING. STRONG SOUTH WINDS...ROUGHLY 60-65
KNOTS...AT 2000 FEET ALTITUDE WILL MOVE OVER THE WATERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. SOME OF THIS WIND MAY BE
DRAWN TO THE SURFACE IN HEAVIER BURSTS OF RAIN. AT THE
LEAST...SOUTH WINDS WILL BE ON THE HIGH END OF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS AT OR NEAR GALE. THIS WILL DRIVE SEAS TO 5-10
FEET ON THE EXPOSED WATERS.

TUESDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST NEAR SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS.
SEAS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH BUT REMAIN ABOVE 5 FEET ON THE EXPOSED
WATERS.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ230-
     232>237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ231-251-
     255-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-254.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...FRANK/DOODY
MARINE...KJC/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 211744
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1245 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BLUSTERY AND UNSEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS TODAY. TEMPERATURES
MODERATE SATURDAY WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS...THEN A SIGNIFICANT
WARM-UP IS IN STORE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A PERIOD OF RAIN. A COASTAL STORM MAY AFFECT THE
REGION SOMETIME DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BUT IT IS UNCERTAIN
HOW CLOSE IT WILL TRACK TO NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

1245 PM UPDATE...

SCATTERED TO BROKEN DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE OVER SPREAD MUCH OF
INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  MAY EVEN
SEE A PASSING FLURRY ACROSS SOUTHERN NH/NORTHWEST MA OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO. MAIN STORY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON WILL BE
UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPS.  HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO
AROUND 30 ACROSS THE INTERIOR HIGH TERRAIN...TO THE MIDDLE 30S IN
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.  EXCELLENT MIXING WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH.  THIS WILL RESULT IN WIND
CHILL VALUES IN THE TEENS...TO THE LOWER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...

TONIGHT...
CENTER OF HIGH PRES MOVES TO THE MID ATLC COAST BUT RIDGE AXIS
BUILDS INTO NEW ENG WHICH WILL RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WIND AS PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. GIVEN VERY DRY
AIRMASS IT WILL BE A COLD NIGHT AS DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
DEVELOPS. MINS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE TEENS...EXCEPT LOWER 20S
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. LOW PROB FOR SOME SINGLE NUMBER MIN
TEMPS W MA AND SW NH.

SATURDAY...
HIGH PRES BUILDS S OF NEW ENG WITH SUNSHINE GIVING WAY TO
INCREASING AFTERNOON CLOUDS AS LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES FROM THE WEST. INCREASING SW FLOW BRINGS MILDER AIR
INTO SNE AS PRONOUNCED LOW AND MID LEVEL WARMING OCCURS. AFTER A
RATHER COLD START...TEMPS WILL RECOVER INTO THE MID 30S TO LOWER
40S. 40 KT LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS BY LATE DAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO
GUSTY SW WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COAST WHERE BETTER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
WITH THE ECMWF AND GFS OPERATIONAL RUNS CONTINUING TO SHOW
MODERATE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MID TERM...A GENERAL BLEND WILL BE
USED AS A BASELINE. ITS NOT UNTIL LATER ABOUT MID WEEK THAT THE
STRONGEST DIVERGENCE IN MODEL SOLUTIONS EVEN AMONG
ENSEMBLES/MEANS...SO CONFIDENCE THROUGH MON-TUE REMAINS RELATIVELY
HIGH WHILE CONFIDENCE BECOMES LOW FROM MID NEXT WEEK THROUGH THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY PERIOD.

THE ISSUE IS LIKELY THE SHIFTING PATTERN THROUGH THE
PERIOD...STARTING WITH BUILDING RIDGE SUN-MON AS PHASING NORTHERN
AND SOUTHERN STREAM WAVES DEVELOP INTO OCCLUDING SYSTEM AROUND THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS DEVELOPING TROF IS THEN EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
DEEPEN AND DIG INTO A SLOWER LONGWAVE TROF TO THE
W...SIMILAR...THOUGH NOT AS COLD AS THIS WEEK/S DEEP TROUGH BUT
WITH THE AXIS FURTHER TO THE W. THEREFORE...TIME-MEAN JET REMAINS
SOUTHWESTERLY AND WARMING UNTIL THE CORE CAN SLIDE TO THE E LATER
IN THE WEEK. AGREE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER...THAT THIS
SUGGEST THE NEAR NORMAL TO WARM WEATHER CONTINUES UNTIL A COOLING
TREND OCCURS LATER IN THE WEEK.

DETAILS...

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN EVENING...
SFC WARM FRONT WILL BE NOSING IN FROM THE W WHILE SHIFTING TO THE
N WITH TIME TOWARD 12Z SUN. NOTE MODEST MID LVL ISENTROPIC LIFT
WITH SOME MOISTURE SUGGESTING LOW END CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIP
ESPECIALLY N OF THE MA PIKE AND W OF I-495. TIMING WILL BE THE KEY
HERE...AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTER THAT IF THE CLOUDS BUILD IN
TOO QUICKLY TEMPS MAY REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING WHILE
ALLOWANCE FOR MORE COOLING SUGGESTS THAT SFC TEMPS MAY BE A FEW
DEGREES BELOW FREEZING. THEREFORE...MAY HAVE TO MONITOR FOR LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN...IF THE TEMPS FALL BACK INTO THE MID-UPPER 20S
LIGHT ICING IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT AGAIN TOTAL RAINFALL
WOULD BE LIGHT AND TEMPS MAY PRECLUDE ANY IMPACTS. WILL NEED TO
WATCH THIS AS WE APPROACH. OTHERWISE SUN...WARMING EXPECTED WITH
AREAS REACHING THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S BY LATE IN THE DAY IN SPITE
OF INCREASING CLOUDS. DWPTS ALSO RISE AS WELL.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...
OCCLUDING LOW PRES TO THE W WILL PUSH 60-65 KT LLJ THROUGH THE
REGION DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MON. THIS WILL BE
COINCIDENT WITH 1.0 INCH PWATS /ABOUT 2 STD DEVIATIONS FROM
NORMAL/. THEREFORE...EXPECT SOME WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WITH MODEST
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS AS K VALUES HOVER AROUND 30...SUGGESTING HEAVY
RAIN. THIS COULD ALSO YIELD SOME STRONG WINDS AND POSSIBLY EVEN A
FINE-LINE DEVELOPMENT WHICH WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. OVERALL
RAINFALL VALUES OF 0.5-1.0 INCHES EXPECTED...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE. AFTER A LULL THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS CONTINUES INTO MON
EVENING AS THE UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE PIVOTS THROUGH. MILD WX
CONTINUES AS HIGHS COULD APPROACH THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60F.

TUE...
HIGH PRES BUILDS IN BRIEFLY FOR TUE. WARM TEMPS STILL EXPECTED AS
THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR REMAINS TO THE W. EXPECT HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

WED-WED NIGHT...
STILL UNCERTAINTY HERE...BUT WITH STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE
SOUTHEAST...A DEVELOPING WAVE OF LOW PRES MAY PASS JUST CLOSE
ENOUGH THE 40/70 BENCHMARK TO INITIATE TROWAL BASED PRECIP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SRN NEW ENGLAND. REGARDING THERMAL PROFILES...WHICH
ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE GIVEN BOTH OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
ARE ONLY RECENTLY CONVERGING ON THIS...TEMPS APPROACHING -6C TO
-10C AT H85 SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF WINTERY PRECIP IN THE
INTERIOR...BUT MAY BE TOO WARM ALONG THE COAST. STILL TOO
UNCERTAIN HERE TO MAKE ANY CALLS...BUT WORTH WATCHING GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL TRAVEL IMPLICATIONS.

THU-FRI...
DEPENDENT ON THE FINAL TIMING TRACK OF THE OFFSHORE SYSTEM...HIGH
PRES WOULD FOLLOW FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD...WITH COLDER DRIER AIR
BUILDING IN FROM THE NW.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

1245 PM UPDATE...

SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

THIS AFTERNOON...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS OF 20 TO 30
KNOTS.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR WITH DIMINISHING WIND.

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR.  SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30
KNOTS DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON...PERHAPS UP TO 35 KNOTS BY EARLY EVENING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CAPE/ISLANDS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.  HOWEVER...A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN A FEW BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS.
ISOLATED POCKETS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR.  SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS
CONTINUE ON THE COASTAL PLAIN DURING THE EVENING...PERHAPS UP TO 35
KNOTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. DIMINISHING WIND.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...CIGS/VSBYS LOWER TO MVFR/IFR IN RAIN/FOG.
SOUTH WIND AT 2000 FEET INCREASES TO 60-65 KNOTS ALONG THE COASTAL
PLAIN LATE NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING AND MAY GENERATE ANOTHER ROUND
OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN THAT AREA. CONDITIONS THEN IMPROVE TO VFR
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS.

A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AT NIGHT AND SHOULD
GENERATE BRIEF MVFR IN SHOWERS. WIND WILL SHIFT FROM SSW TO WSW WITH
THE WIND SHIFT.

TUESDAY...VFR. A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN EASTERN MASS/RI

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE THRU SATURDAY.

TODAY...WE CONVERTED GALE WARNINGS TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR
ALL WATERS. EXPECT WIND GUSTS TODAY WILL FALL JUST SHY OF GALES
WITH NW GUSTS INTO THE LOWER 30 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH SPEEDS DROPPING BELOW 20
KT LATE TONIGHT.

SATURDAY...EXPECT INCREASING SW WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AS DECENT
LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN STILL WARM SST...
GOOD MIXING OVER WATER SUPPORTS WIND GUSTS TO 30 KT WITH MARGINAL
GALES POSSIBLE BY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SAT NIGHT...SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST TO 35 KNOTS DURING
THE DAY AND THEN DIMINISH IN THE EVENING. SEAS 5-8 FEET WILL
DIMINISH IN THE EVENING.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...A WARM FRONT MOVES UP ACROSS THE WATERS. VSBYS
WILL LOWER TO 1-3 MILES IN RAIN AND FOG STARTING AROUND MIDNIGHT
CONTINUING INTO THE MORNING. STRONG SOUTH WINDS...ROUGHLY 60-65
KNOTS...AT 2000 FEET ALTITUDE WILL MOVE OVER THE WATERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. SOME OF THIS WIND MAY BE
DRAWN TO THE SURFACE IN HEAVIER BURSTS OF RAIN. AT THE
LEAST...SOUTH WINDS WILL BE ON THE HIGH END OF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS AT OR NEAR GALE. THIS WILL DRIVE SEAS TO 5-10
FEET ON THE EXPOSED WATERS.

TUESDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST NEAR SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS.
SEAS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH BUT REMAIN ABOVE 5 FEET ON THE EXPOSED
WATERS.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ230-
     232>237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ231-251-
     255-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-254.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...FRANK/DOODY
MARINE...KJC/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 211744
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1245 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BLUSTERY AND UNSEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS TODAY. TEMPERATURES
MODERATE SATURDAY WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS...THEN A SIGNIFICANT
WARM-UP IS IN STORE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A PERIOD OF RAIN. A COASTAL STORM MAY AFFECT THE
REGION SOMETIME DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BUT IT IS UNCERTAIN
HOW CLOSE IT WILL TRACK TO NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

1245 PM UPDATE...

SCATTERED TO BROKEN DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE OVER SPREAD MUCH OF
INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  MAY EVEN
SEE A PASSING FLURRY ACROSS SOUTHERN NH/NORTHWEST MA OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO. MAIN STORY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON WILL BE
UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPS.  HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO
AROUND 30 ACROSS THE INTERIOR HIGH TERRAIN...TO THE MIDDLE 30S IN
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.  EXCELLENT MIXING WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH.  THIS WILL RESULT IN WIND
CHILL VALUES IN THE TEENS...TO THE LOWER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...

TONIGHT...
CENTER OF HIGH PRES MOVES TO THE MID ATLC COAST BUT RIDGE AXIS
BUILDS INTO NEW ENG WHICH WILL RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WIND AS PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. GIVEN VERY DRY
AIRMASS IT WILL BE A COLD NIGHT AS DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
DEVELOPS. MINS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE TEENS...EXCEPT LOWER 20S
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. LOW PROB FOR SOME SINGLE NUMBER MIN
TEMPS W MA AND SW NH.

SATURDAY...
HIGH PRES BUILDS S OF NEW ENG WITH SUNSHINE GIVING WAY TO
INCREASING AFTERNOON CLOUDS AS LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES FROM THE WEST. INCREASING SW FLOW BRINGS MILDER AIR
INTO SNE AS PRONOUNCED LOW AND MID LEVEL WARMING OCCURS. AFTER A
RATHER COLD START...TEMPS WILL RECOVER INTO THE MID 30S TO LOWER
40S. 40 KT LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS BY LATE DAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO
GUSTY SW WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COAST WHERE BETTER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
WITH THE ECMWF AND GFS OPERATIONAL RUNS CONTINUING TO SHOW
MODERATE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MID TERM...A GENERAL BLEND WILL BE
USED AS A BASELINE. ITS NOT UNTIL LATER ABOUT MID WEEK THAT THE
STRONGEST DIVERGENCE IN MODEL SOLUTIONS EVEN AMONG
ENSEMBLES/MEANS...SO CONFIDENCE THROUGH MON-TUE REMAINS RELATIVELY
HIGH WHILE CONFIDENCE BECOMES LOW FROM MID NEXT WEEK THROUGH THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY PERIOD.

THE ISSUE IS LIKELY THE SHIFTING PATTERN THROUGH THE
PERIOD...STARTING WITH BUILDING RIDGE SUN-MON AS PHASING NORTHERN
AND SOUTHERN STREAM WAVES DEVELOP INTO OCCLUDING SYSTEM AROUND THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS DEVELOPING TROF IS THEN EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
DEEPEN AND DIG INTO A SLOWER LONGWAVE TROF TO THE
W...SIMILAR...THOUGH NOT AS COLD AS THIS WEEK/S DEEP TROUGH BUT
WITH THE AXIS FURTHER TO THE W. THEREFORE...TIME-MEAN JET REMAINS
SOUTHWESTERLY AND WARMING UNTIL THE CORE CAN SLIDE TO THE E LATER
IN THE WEEK. AGREE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER...THAT THIS
SUGGEST THE NEAR NORMAL TO WARM WEATHER CONTINUES UNTIL A COOLING
TREND OCCURS LATER IN THE WEEK.

DETAILS...

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN EVENING...
SFC WARM FRONT WILL BE NOSING IN FROM THE W WHILE SHIFTING TO THE
N WITH TIME TOWARD 12Z SUN. NOTE MODEST MID LVL ISENTROPIC LIFT
WITH SOME MOISTURE SUGGESTING LOW END CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIP
ESPECIALLY N OF THE MA PIKE AND W OF I-495. TIMING WILL BE THE KEY
HERE...AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTER THAT IF THE CLOUDS BUILD IN
TOO QUICKLY TEMPS MAY REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING WHILE
ALLOWANCE FOR MORE COOLING SUGGESTS THAT SFC TEMPS MAY BE A FEW
DEGREES BELOW FREEZING. THEREFORE...MAY HAVE TO MONITOR FOR LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN...IF THE TEMPS FALL BACK INTO THE MID-UPPER 20S
LIGHT ICING IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT AGAIN TOTAL RAINFALL
WOULD BE LIGHT AND TEMPS MAY PRECLUDE ANY IMPACTS. WILL NEED TO
WATCH THIS AS WE APPROACH. OTHERWISE SUN...WARMING EXPECTED WITH
AREAS REACHING THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S BY LATE IN THE DAY IN SPITE
OF INCREASING CLOUDS. DWPTS ALSO RISE AS WELL.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...
OCCLUDING LOW PRES TO THE W WILL PUSH 60-65 KT LLJ THROUGH THE
REGION DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MON. THIS WILL BE
COINCIDENT WITH 1.0 INCH PWATS /ABOUT 2 STD DEVIATIONS FROM
NORMAL/. THEREFORE...EXPECT SOME WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WITH MODEST
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS AS K VALUES HOVER AROUND 30...SUGGESTING HEAVY
RAIN. THIS COULD ALSO YIELD SOME STRONG WINDS AND POSSIBLY EVEN A
FINE-LINE DEVELOPMENT WHICH WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. OVERALL
RAINFALL VALUES OF 0.5-1.0 INCHES EXPECTED...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE. AFTER A LULL THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS CONTINUES INTO MON
EVENING AS THE UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE PIVOTS THROUGH. MILD WX
CONTINUES AS HIGHS COULD APPROACH THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60F.

TUE...
HIGH PRES BUILDS IN BRIEFLY FOR TUE. WARM TEMPS STILL EXPECTED AS
THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR REMAINS TO THE W. EXPECT HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

WED-WED NIGHT...
STILL UNCERTAINTY HERE...BUT WITH STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE
SOUTHEAST...A DEVELOPING WAVE OF LOW PRES MAY PASS JUST CLOSE
ENOUGH THE 40/70 BENCHMARK TO INITIATE TROWAL BASED PRECIP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SRN NEW ENGLAND. REGARDING THERMAL PROFILES...WHICH
ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE GIVEN BOTH OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
ARE ONLY RECENTLY CONVERGING ON THIS...TEMPS APPROACHING -6C TO
-10C AT H85 SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF WINTERY PRECIP IN THE
INTERIOR...BUT MAY BE TOO WARM ALONG THE COAST. STILL TOO
UNCERTAIN HERE TO MAKE ANY CALLS...BUT WORTH WATCHING GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL TRAVEL IMPLICATIONS.

THU-FRI...
DEPENDENT ON THE FINAL TIMING TRACK OF THE OFFSHORE SYSTEM...HIGH
PRES WOULD FOLLOW FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD...WITH COLDER DRIER AIR
BUILDING IN FROM THE NW.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

1245 PM UPDATE...

SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

THIS AFTERNOON...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS OF 20 TO 30
KNOTS.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR WITH DIMINISHING WIND.

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR.  SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30
KNOTS DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON...PERHAPS UP TO 35 KNOTS BY EARLY EVENING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CAPE/ISLANDS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.  HOWEVER...A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN A FEW BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS.
ISOLATED POCKETS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR.  SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS
CONTINUE ON THE COASTAL PLAIN DURING THE EVENING...PERHAPS UP TO 35
KNOTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. DIMINISHING WIND.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...CIGS/VSBYS LOWER TO MVFR/IFR IN RAIN/FOG.
SOUTH WIND AT 2000 FEET INCREASES TO 60-65 KNOTS ALONG THE COASTAL
PLAIN LATE NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING AND MAY GENERATE ANOTHER ROUND
OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN THAT AREA. CONDITIONS THEN IMPROVE TO VFR
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS.

A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AT NIGHT AND SHOULD
GENERATE BRIEF MVFR IN SHOWERS. WIND WILL SHIFT FROM SSW TO WSW WITH
THE WIND SHIFT.

TUESDAY...VFR. A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN EASTERN MASS/RI

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE THRU SATURDAY.

TODAY...WE CONVERTED GALE WARNINGS TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR
ALL WATERS. EXPECT WIND GUSTS TODAY WILL FALL JUST SHY OF GALES
WITH NW GUSTS INTO THE LOWER 30 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH SPEEDS DROPPING BELOW 20
KT LATE TONIGHT.

SATURDAY...EXPECT INCREASING SW WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AS DECENT
LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN STILL WARM SST...
GOOD MIXING OVER WATER SUPPORTS WIND GUSTS TO 30 KT WITH MARGINAL
GALES POSSIBLE BY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SAT NIGHT...SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST TO 35 KNOTS DURING
THE DAY AND THEN DIMINISH IN THE EVENING. SEAS 5-8 FEET WILL
DIMINISH IN THE EVENING.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...A WARM FRONT MOVES UP ACROSS THE WATERS. VSBYS
WILL LOWER TO 1-3 MILES IN RAIN AND FOG STARTING AROUND MIDNIGHT
CONTINUING INTO THE MORNING. STRONG SOUTH WINDS...ROUGHLY 60-65
KNOTS...AT 2000 FEET ALTITUDE WILL MOVE OVER THE WATERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. SOME OF THIS WIND MAY BE
DRAWN TO THE SURFACE IN HEAVIER BURSTS OF RAIN. AT THE
LEAST...SOUTH WINDS WILL BE ON THE HIGH END OF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS AT OR NEAR GALE. THIS WILL DRIVE SEAS TO 5-10
FEET ON THE EXPOSED WATERS.

TUESDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST NEAR SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS.
SEAS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH BUT REMAIN ABOVE 5 FEET ON THE EXPOSED
WATERS.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ230-
     232>237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ231-251-
     255-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-254.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...FRANK/DOODY
MARINE...KJC/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 211744
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1245 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BLUSTERY AND UNSEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS TODAY. TEMPERATURES
MODERATE SATURDAY WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS...THEN A SIGNIFICANT
WARM-UP IS IN STORE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A PERIOD OF RAIN. A COASTAL STORM MAY AFFECT THE
REGION SOMETIME DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BUT IT IS UNCERTAIN
HOW CLOSE IT WILL TRACK TO NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

1245 PM UPDATE...

SCATTERED TO BROKEN DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE OVER SPREAD MUCH OF
INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  MAY EVEN
SEE A PASSING FLURRY ACROSS SOUTHERN NH/NORTHWEST MA OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO. MAIN STORY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON WILL BE
UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPS.  HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO
AROUND 30 ACROSS THE INTERIOR HIGH TERRAIN...TO THE MIDDLE 30S IN
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.  EXCELLENT MIXING WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH.  THIS WILL RESULT IN WIND
CHILL VALUES IN THE TEENS...TO THE LOWER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...

TONIGHT...
CENTER OF HIGH PRES MOVES TO THE MID ATLC COAST BUT RIDGE AXIS
BUILDS INTO NEW ENG WHICH WILL RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WIND AS PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. GIVEN VERY DRY
AIRMASS IT WILL BE A COLD NIGHT AS DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
DEVELOPS. MINS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE TEENS...EXCEPT LOWER 20S
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. LOW PROB FOR SOME SINGLE NUMBER MIN
TEMPS W MA AND SW NH.

SATURDAY...
HIGH PRES BUILDS S OF NEW ENG WITH SUNSHINE GIVING WAY TO
INCREASING AFTERNOON CLOUDS AS LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES FROM THE WEST. INCREASING SW FLOW BRINGS MILDER AIR
INTO SNE AS PRONOUNCED LOW AND MID LEVEL WARMING OCCURS. AFTER A
RATHER COLD START...TEMPS WILL RECOVER INTO THE MID 30S TO LOWER
40S. 40 KT LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS BY LATE DAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO
GUSTY SW WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COAST WHERE BETTER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
WITH THE ECMWF AND GFS OPERATIONAL RUNS CONTINUING TO SHOW
MODERATE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MID TERM...A GENERAL BLEND WILL BE
USED AS A BASELINE. ITS NOT UNTIL LATER ABOUT MID WEEK THAT THE
STRONGEST DIVERGENCE IN MODEL SOLUTIONS EVEN AMONG
ENSEMBLES/MEANS...SO CONFIDENCE THROUGH MON-TUE REMAINS RELATIVELY
HIGH WHILE CONFIDENCE BECOMES LOW FROM MID NEXT WEEK THROUGH THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY PERIOD.

THE ISSUE IS LIKELY THE SHIFTING PATTERN THROUGH THE
PERIOD...STARTING WITH BUILDING RIDGE SUN-MON AS PHASING NORTHERN
AND SOUTHERN STREAM WAVES DEVELOP INTO OCCLUDING SYSTEM AROUND THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS DEVELOPING TROF IS THEN EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
DEEPEN AND DIG INTO A SLOWER LONGWAVE TROF TO THE
W...SIMILAR...THOUGH NOT AS COLD AS THIS WEEK/S DEEP TROUGH BUT
WITH THE AXIS FURTHER TO THE W. THEREFORE...TIME-MEAN JET REMAINS
SOUTHWESTERLY AND WARMING UNTIL THE CORE CAN SLIDE TO THE E LATER
IN THE WEEK. AGREE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER...THAT THIS
SUGGEST THE NEAR NORMAL TO WARM WEATHER CONTINUES UNTIL A COOLING
TREND OCCURS LATER IN THE WEEK.

DETAILS...

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN EVENING...
SFC WARM FRONT WILL BE NOSING IN FROM THE W WHILE SHIFTING TO THE
N WITH TIME TOWARD 12Z SUN. NOTE MODEST MID LVL ISENTROPIC LIFT
WITH SOME MOISTURE SUGGESTING LOW END CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIP
ESPECIALLY N OF THE MA PIKE AND W OF I-495. TIMING WILL BE THE KEY
HERE...AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTER THAT IF THE CLOUDS BUILD IN
TOO QUICKLY TEMPS MAY REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING WHILE
ALLOWANCE FOR MORE COOLING SUGGESTS THAT SFC TEMPS MAY BE A FEW
DEGREES BELOW FREEZING. THEREFORE...MAY HAVE TO MONITOR FOR LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN...IF THE TEMPS FALL BACK INTO THE MID-UPPER 20S
LIGHT ICING IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT AGAIN TOTAL RAINFALL
WOULD BE LIGHT AND TEMPS MAY PRECLUDE ANY IMPACTS. WILL NEED TO
WATCH THIS AS WE APPROACH. OTHERWISE SUN...WARMING EXPECTED WITH
AREAS REACHING THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S BY LATE IN THE DAY IN SPITE
OF INCREASING CLOUDS. DWPTS ALSO RISE AS WELL.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...
OCCLUDING LOW PRES TO THE W WILL PUSH 60-65 KT LLJ THROUGH THE
REGION DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MON. THIS WILL BE
COINCIDENT WITH 1.0 INCH PWATS /ABOUT 2 STD DEVIATIONS FROM
NORMAL/. THEREFORE...EXPECT SOME WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WITH MODEST
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS AS K VALUES HOVER AROUND 30...SUGGESTING HEAVY
RAIN. THIS COULD ALSO YIELD SOME STRONG WINDS AND POSSIBLY EVEN A
FINE-LINE DEVELOPMENT WHICH WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. OVERALL
RAINFALL VALUES OF 0.5-1.0 INCHES EXPECTED...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE. AFTER A LULL THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS CONTINUES INTO MON
EVENING AS THE UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE PIVOTS THROUGH. MILD WX
CONTINUES AS HIGHS COULD APPROACH THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60F.

TUE...
HIGH PRES BUILDS IN BRIEFLY FOR TUE. WARM TEMPS STILL EXPECTED AS
THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR REMAINS TO THE W. EXPECT HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

WED-WED NIGHT...
STILL UNCERTAINTY HERE...BUT WITH STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE
SOUTHEAST...A DEVELOPING WAVE OF LOW PRES MAY PASS JUST CLOSE
ENOUGH THE 40/70 BENCHMARK TO INITIATE TROWAL BASED PRECIP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SRN NEW ENGLAND. REGARDING THERMAL PROFILES...WHICH
ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE GIVEN BOTH OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
ARE ONLY RECENTLY CONVERGING ON THIS...TEMPS APPROACHING -6C TO
-10C AT H85 SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF WINTERY PRECIP IN THE
INTERIOR...BUT MAY BE TOO WARM ALONG THE COAST. STILL TOO
UNCERTAIN HERE TO MAKE ANY CALLS...BUT WORTH WATCHING GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL TRAVEL IMPLICATIONS.

THU-FRI...
DEPENDENT ON THE FINAL TIMING TRACK OF THE OFFSHORE SYSTEM...HIGH
PRES WOULD FOLLOW FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD...WITH COLDER DRIER AIR
BUILDING IN FROM THE NW.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

1245 PM UPDATE...

SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

THIS AFTERNOON...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS OF 20 TO 30
KNOTS.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR WITH DIMINISHING WIND.

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR.  SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30
KNOTS DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON...PERHAPS UP TO 35 KNOTS BY EARLY EVENING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CAPE/ISLANDS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.  HOWEVER...A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN A FEW BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS.
ISOLATED POCKETS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR.  SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS
CONTINUE ON THE COASTAL PLAIN DURING THE EVENING...PERHAPS UP TO 35
KNOTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. DIMINISHING WIND.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...CIGS/VSBYS LOWER TO MVFR/IFR IN RAIN/FOG.
SOUTH WIND AT 2000 FEET INCREASES TO 60-65 KNOTS ALONG THE COASTAL
PLAIN LATE NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING AND MAY GENERATE ANOTHER ROUND
OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN THAT AREA. CONDITIONS THEN IMPROVE TO VFR
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS.

A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AT NIGHT AND SHOULD
GENERATE BRIEF MVFR IN SHOWERS. WIND WILL SHIFT FROM SSW TO WSW WITH
THE WIND SHIFT.

TUESDAY...VFR. A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN EASTERN MASS/RI

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE THRU SATURDAY.

TODAY...WE CONVERTED GALE WARNINGS TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR
ALL WATERS. EXPECT WIND GUSTS TODAY WILL FALL JUST SHY OF GALES
WITH NW GUSTS INTO THE LOWER 30 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH SPEEDS DROPPING BELOW 20
KT LATE TONIGHT.

SATURDAY...EXPECT INCREASING SW WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AS DECENT
LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN STILL WARM SST...
GOOD MIXING OVER WATER SUPPORTS WIND GUSTS TO 30 KT WITH MARGINAL
GALES POSSIBLE BY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SAT NIGHT...SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST TO 35 KNOTS DURING
THE DAY AND THEN DIMINISH IN THE EVENING. SEAS 5-8 FEET WILL
DIMINISH IN THE EVENING.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...A WARM FRONT MOVES UP ACROSS THE WATERS. VSBYS
WILL LOWER TO 1-3 MILES IN RAIN AND FOG STARTING AROUND MIDNIGHT
CONTINUING INTO THE MORNING. STRONG SOUTH WINDS...ROUGHLY 60-65
KNOTS...AT 2000 FEET ALTITUDE WILL MOVE OVER THE WATERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. SOME OF THIS WIND MAY BE
DRAWN TO THE SURFACE IN HEAVIER BURSTS OF RAIN. AT THE
LEAST...SOUTH WINDS WILL BE ON THE HIGH END OF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS AT OR NEAR GALE. THIS WILL DRIVE SEAS TO 5-10
FEET ON THE EXPOSED WATERS.

TUESDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST NEAR SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS.
SEAS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH BUT REMAIN ABOVE 5 FEET ON THE EXPOSED
WATERS.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ230-
     232>237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ231-251-
     255-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-254.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...FRANK/DOODY
MARINE...KJC/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KALY 211744
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1244 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES
WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH COLD AND BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS.  A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT MIXED
PRECIPITATION...INCLUDING SOME FREEZING RAIN...TO THE REGION
SATURDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. A MILDER AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
IN TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND...BEFORE SOME RAIN ARRIVES EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1243 PM EST...LAKE EFFECT SNOW HAS TRANSITIONED INTO MULTI
BANDS...EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL NY AND ACROSS THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY
AND INTO THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY. SOME UPSLOPE
SNOW SHOWERS ARE ALSO OCCURRING IN THE SRN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND
BERKSHIRES AS WELL. MESOSCALE MODELS AREN/T PICKING UP ON THIS
ACTIVITY...BUT WILL GENERALLY EXPECT THESE SNOW SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE AREA LOWERS THE INVERSION HEIGHT...AND CAUSES MUCH OF THE
LAKE EFFECT TO END. ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY JUST BE
A COATING...ALTHOUGH A FEW SPOTS IN THE HIGHEST SPOTS IN THE
WESTERN FACING SLOPES OF THE TACONICS/BERKSHIRES MAY SEE CLOSE TO
AN INCH.

WITH COLD 850 HPA TEMPS IN PLACE /ABOUT -14 TO -15 DEGREES
C/...GOOD MIXING WILL OCCUR. THIS WILL ALLOW NW WINDS TO BE GUSTY
AT TIMES...WITH A FEW GUSTS OVER 25 KTS...ESP AT KALB...WHERE AIR
IS FUNNELED DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY
BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S FOR VALLEY
AREAS...AND UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN.

TONIGHT...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION.
AS THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LOWERS...THIS WILL WEAKEN THE LAKE SNOW
BAND EVEN MORE...BUT IT STILL MIGHT CONTINUE AS THE FLOW TURNS BACK
TO MORE OF A WESTERLY MEAN FLOW WHICH WOULD PUT THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
BAND ACROSS THE NORTHERN RIM OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
SOME OF THESE AREAS.

REMAINING REGIONS OF THE EASTERN NEW YORK AND ALL OF ADJACENT
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WILL BE DRY WITH A MAINLY CLEAR SKY TONIGHT. THE
WIND WILL LIGHTEN. THIS WILL MAKE THIS NIGHT THE BEST RADIATIONAL
COOLING NIGHT OF THIS COLD SPELL THUS FAR FOR MOST AREAS OUTSIDE OF
THE ADIRONDACKS. LOOK FOR LOWS TO TUMBLE TO THE TEENS FROM ALBANY
SOUTHWARD. UP WELL NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...LOWS WILL RANGE
5 TO 10 ABOVE. WHILE WE EXPECT MORE CLOUDS IN THE ADIRONDACKS...IF
ENOUGH THIN SPOTS IN THE CLOUDS WERE TO DEVELOP...SOME SNOW
SHELTERED VALLEYS COULD MAKE A RUN AT ZERO DEGREES...WHILE MOST OF
THE ADIRONDACKS WILL AVERAGE CLOSER TO 10 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...AFTER A COLD START...SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD START THE
DAY...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE RATHER QUICKLY FROM MID MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON AS MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT INTENSIFIES. GIVEN
THAT WE EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE FAIRLY QUICKLY...AND THAT TEMPS
WILL START OFF SO COLD...WE HAVE SIDED ON THE COLDER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE IN MOST AREAS...MID/UPPER 30S IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER 30S
ACROSS MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY
DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS...AND COULD REACH AREAS JUST W OF
THE HUDSON RIVER TOWARD OR JUST AFTER SUNSET. FORECAST THERMAL
PROFILES SUGGEST P-TYPE SHOULD START AS A LIGHT SNOW/SLEET MIX
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...AND PERHAPS SLEET/FREEZING RAIN ACROSS
THE MOHAWK VALLEY REGION.

SAT NT...MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT LIGHT
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO EXPAND E/NE ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
EVENING...AND PERSISTS INTERMITTENTLY THROUGH THE NIGHT...IN
ASSOCIATION WITH MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT...AS WELL AS SOME
ADDITIONAL DYNAMIC LIFT AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING NORTH OF
THE GREAT LAKES. AGAIN...THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THAT A LIGHT MIX
OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WOULD BE MOST LIKELY...ALTHOUGH COULD
CHANGE TO PLAIN RAIN LATER AT NIGHT IN VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY
SOUTH AND EAST AS SFC TEMPS RISE A BIT INTO AND THROUGH THE
LOWER/MID 30S. SINCE THE GROUND IS SO COLD...THE MAIN PROBLEM WITH
ANY FREEZING RAIN WOULD BE MAINLY TRAVEL RELATED...WITH SOME LIGHT
ICING POSSIBLE ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS
POTENTIAL IN THE HWOALY AT THIS TIME...BUT IF CONFIDENCE CONTINUES
TO INCREASE FOR THE OCCURRENCE OF FREEZING RAIN...THEN FREEZING
RAIN ADVISORIES WILL NEED TO BE ISSUED FOR AT LEAST PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS/LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION AND MOHAWK
VALLEY.

SUNDAY...MAIN THRUST OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DYNAMICS LIFT NORTH
AND EAST OF THE REGION...ALTHOUGH SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP MAY
STILL BE ONGOING INITIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS.
THEREAFTER...DESPITE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY BE TOUGH TO DISLODGE...ESP FOR AREAS NEAR AND N OF
INTERSTATE 90...WHERE LOW CLOUDS MAY PERSIST. HAVE SIDED ON THE
COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MOST AREAS...WITH MAX TEMPS EXPECTED
TO REACH 45-50 IN VALLEY AREAS...AND LOWER/MID 40S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. SOME LOWER 50S COULD OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS IN NW CT SHOULD MORE SUNSHINE
BE ABLE TO BREAK THROUGH.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES...AND A HEALTHY SURGE OF MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL
JET APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH...RAIN SHOULD DEVELOP FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. TEMPS MAY BRIEFLY FALL
INTO THE 30S IN THE EVENING...BEFORE RISING LATER AT NIGHT WITH
THE DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET MAX AND WARM ADVECTION. GENERALLY ONE
QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...WITH SOME
LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN SURGE OF WARM ADVECTION SHOULD LIFT
NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION MON MORNING...WHILE A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE MON AND PASSES THROUGH MON NT.
SO...THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN APPEARS TO BE MON MORNING...ESP
ACROSS N/E AREAS...TAPERING TO SHOWERS DURING THE DAY...WITH AN
INCREASED THREAT OF SHOWERS AGAIN MON NT WITH THE FROPA. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT SHOWERS BECOME SCATTERED MON AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW
BREAKS OF SUN POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS. DEPENDING ON IF ANY SUN
CAN BREAK THROUGH...TEMPS COULD SURGE INTO THE 60S. FOR
NOW...GIVEN THAT IT IS NOVEMBER WITH SUCH A LOW SUN ANGLE...WE
THINK THAT AT LEAST SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY HOLD ON...AND THEREFORE
WENT A BIT COOLER THAN MOST GUIDANCE...WITH MAINLY 55-60 IN
VALLEYS...AND UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...ALTHOUGH
HAVE INCLUDED SOME 60-65 TEMPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT. AGAIN...SHOULD MORE
SUBSTANTIAL BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP...EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS
COULD OCCUR. SHOWERY AND WINDY CONDITIONS FOR MON NT AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. SHOWERS COULD MIX WITH/END AS SNOW ACROSS SOME
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS TOWARD TUE AM...WITH
MIN TEMPS FALLING INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S.

TUE-TUE NT...AT THIS VANTAGE POINT...APPEARS GRADUAL COOLING COULD
COMMENCE...WITH PERHAPS SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD STILL BE RATHER
MILD...GENERALLY 50-55 IN VALLEYS...AND 40S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. TUE NT MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID 30S FOR
LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND 25-30 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
EXTENDED...AS THE 00Z/21 GFS AND MOST GEFS INDICATE A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE EAST COAST...KEEPING MOST OF THE
PRECIP WELL E OF THE REGION...WHILE THE 00Z/21 ECMWF SUGGESTS THAT
THIS WAVE TRACKS CLOSER TO THE COAST...AND THAT PRECIP EXPANDS
ACROSS AT LEAST THE S/E HALF OF THE REGION...IF NOT EVEN FURTHER
N AND W. THIS HAS BEEN A N/W TREND IN THE ECMWF FROM PREVIOUS
CYCLES. WILL HAVE TO WATCH OVERALL TRENDS VERY CLOSELY...AS THE
ECMWF ALSO SUGGESTS THAT UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES POTENTIALLY CLOSES OFF A MID LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY. ALTHOUGH THE MODEL SUGGESTS THAT THE OFFSHORE WAVE
REMAINS SEPARATE FROM THIS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY...THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY THAT THE TWO COULD PHASE SHOULD THAT ENERGY DIG MORE
QUICKLY...RESULTING IN A MUCH MORE POTENT EAST COAST STORM SYSTEM.
AT THIS TIME...HAVE INDICATED CHC POPS FOR AREAS S/E OF ALBANY FOR
A RAIN/SNOW MIX WED...AND SLIGHT CHC ELSEWHERE. DEPENDING ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THESE TWO ENTITIES...THURSDAY COULD BE RATHER
BLUSTERY WITH AT LEAST SOME PASSING SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.
TEMPS WED-THU WILL TREND BELOW NORMAL...WITH GENERALLY UPPER
30S/LOWER 40S FOR MAX TEMPS IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER 30S ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD...12Z/SATURDAY. MVFR CLOUDS WILL LINGER DOWN THE MOHAWK
VALLEY AT KALB THIS MORNING AND POSSIBILITY AT KPSF.

HEIGHTS WILL RISE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES TO OUR EAST AND RIDGING BUILDS IN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST AT THE SURFACE. SO IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL
DECREASING CLOUD COVER.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL TIGHTEN RESULTING IN
BRISK AND GUSTY WINDS TODAY. WINDS WILL BE THE STRONGEST DOWN THE
MOHAWK VALLEY AND ACROSS THE TACONICS AND BERKSHIRES. WINDS WILL
DECREASE THIS EVENING AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...FZRA...SLEET.
SUN: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MON: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
MON NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUE: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE HSA THROUGH
SATURDAY...EXCEPT LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACK REGION AND THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL MOHAWK
VALLEY.

A WARM FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH TOTAL QPF LESS THAN A
QUARTER OF AN INCH.

MILDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S
SUNDAY...50S AND LOW 60S MONDAY AND 50S TUESDAY...WITH NIGHTTIME
LOWS MAINLY ABOVE FREEZING.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD BRING A HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH OF
RAINFALL TO THE HSA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS TUESDAY. AT THIS POINT NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE RAINFALL AND MINOR SNOW MELT ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/FRUGIS/HWJIV/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...IAA/HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...KL/SNYDER/WASULA








000
FXUS61 KALY 211744
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1244 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES
WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH COLD AND BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS.  A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT MIXED
PRECIPITATION...INCLUDING SOME FREEZING RAIN...TO THE REGION
SATURDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. A MILDER AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
IN TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND...BEFORE SOME RAIN ARRIVES EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1243 PM EST...LAKE EFFECT SNOW HAS TRANSITIONED INTO MULTI
BANDS...EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL NY AND ACROSS THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY
AND INTO THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY. SOME UPSLOPE
SNOW SHOWERS ARE ALSO OCCURRING IN THE SRN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND
BERKSHIRES AS WELL. MESOSCALE MODELS AREN/T PICKING UP ON THIS
ACTIVITY...BUT WILL GENERALLY EXPECT THESE SNOW SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE AREA LOWERS THE INVERSION HEIGHT...AND CAUSES MUCH OF THE
LAKE EFFECT TO END. ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY JUST BE
A COATING...ALTHOUGH A FEW SPOTS IN THE HIGHEST SPOTS IN THE
WESTERN FACING SLOPES OF THE TACONICS/BERKSHIRES MAY SEE CLOSE TO
AN INCH.

WITH COLD 850 HPA TEMPS IN PLACE /ABOUT -14 TO -15 DEGREES
C/...GOOD MIXING WILL OCCUR. THIS WILL ALLOW NW WINDS TO BE GUSTY
AT TIMES...WITH A FEW GUSTS OVER 25 KTS...ESP AT KALB...WHERE AIR
IS FUNNELED DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY
BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S FOR VALLEY
AREAS...AND UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN.

TONIGHT...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION.
AS THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LOWERS...THIS WILL WEAKEN THE LAKE SNOW
BAND EVEN MORE...BUT IT STILL MIGHT CONTINUE AS THE FLOW TURNS BACK
TO MORE OF A WESTERLY MEAN FLOW WHICH WOULD PUT THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
BAND ACROSS THE NORTHERN RIM OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
SOME OF THESE AREAS.

REMAINING REGIONS OF THE EASTERN NEW YORK AND ALL OF ADJACENT
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WILL BE DRY WITH A MAINLY CLEAR SKY TONIGHT. THE
WIND WILL LIGHTEN. THIS WILL MAKE THIS NIGHT THE BEST RADIATIONAL
COOLING NIGHT OF THIS COLD SPELL THUS FAR FOR MOST AREAS OUTSIDE OF
THE ADIRONDACKS. LOOK FOR LOWS TO TUMBLE TO THE TEENS FROM ALBANY
SOUTHWARD. UP WELL NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...LOWS WILL RANGE
5 TO 10 ABOVE. WHILE WE EXPECT MORE CLOUDS IN THE ADIRONDACKS...IF
ENOUGH THIN SPOTS IN THE CLOUDS WERE TO DEVELOP...SOME SNOW
SHELTERED VALLEYS COULD MAKE A RUN AT ZERO DEGREES...WHILE MOST OF
THE ADIRONDACKS WILL AVERAGE CLOSER TO 10 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...AFTER A COLD START...SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD START THE
DAY...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE RATHER QUICKLY FROM MID MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON AS MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT INTENSIFIES. GIVEN
THAT WE EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE FAIRLY QUICKLY...AND THAT TEMPS
WILL START OFF SO COLD...WE HAVE SIDED ON THE COLDER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE IN MOST AREAS...MID/UPPER 30S IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER 30S
ACROSS MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY
DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS...AND COULD REACH AREAS JUST W OF
THE HUDSON RIVER TOWARD OR JUST AFTER SUNSET. FORECAST THERMAL
PROFILES SUGGEST P-TYPE SHOULD START AS A LIGHT SNOW/SLEET MIX
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...AND PERHAPS SLEET/FREEZING RAIN ACROSS
THE MOHAWK VALLEY REGION.

SAT NT...MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT LIGHT
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO EXPAND E/NE ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
EVENING...AND PERSISTS INTERMITTENTLY THROUGH THE NIGHT...IN
ASSOCIATION WITH MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT...AS WELL AS SOME
ADDITIONAL DYNAMIC LIFT AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING NORTH OF
THE GREAT LAKES. AGAIN...THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THAT A LIGHT MIX
OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WOULD BE MOST LIKELY...ALTHOUGH COULD
CHANGE TO PLAIN RAIN LATER AT NIGHT IN VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY
SOUTH AND EAST AS SFC TEMPS RISE A BIT INTO AND THROUGH THE
LOWER/MID 30S. SINCE THE GROUND IS SO COLD...THE MAIN PROBLEM WITH
ANY FREEZING RAIN WOULD BE MAINLY TRAVEL RELATED...WITH SOME LIGHT
ICING POSSIBLE ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS
POTENTIAL IN THE HWOALY AT THIS TIME...BUT IF CONFIDENCE CONTINUES
TO INCREASE FOR THE OCCURRENCE OF FREEZING RAIN...THEN FREEZING
RAIN ADVISORIES WILL NEED TO BE ISSUED FOR AT LEAST PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS/LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION AND MOHAWK
VALLEY.

SUNDAY...MAIN THRUST OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DYNAMICS LIFT NORTH
AND EAST OF THE REGION...ALTHOUGH SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP MAY
STILL BE ONGOING INITIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS.
THEREAFTER...DESPITE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY BE TOUGH TO DISLODGE...ESP FOR AREAS NEAR AND N OF
INTERSTATE 90...WHERE LOW CLOUDS MAY PERSIST. HAVE SIDED ON THE
COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MOST AREAS...WITH MAX TEMPS EXPECTED
TO REACH 45-50 IN VALLEY AREAS...AND LOWER/MID 40S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. SOME LOWER 50S COULD OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS IN NW CT SHOULD MORE SUNSHINE
BE ABLE TO BREAK THROUGH.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES...AND A HEALTHY SURGE OF MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL
JET APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH...RAIN SHOULD DEVELOP FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. TEMPS MAY BRIEFLY FALL
INTO THE 30S IN THE EVENING...BEFORE RISING LATER AT NIGHT WITH
THE DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET MAX AND WARM ADVECTION. GENERALLY ONE
QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...WITH SOME
LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN SURGE OF WARM ADVECTION SHOULD LIFT
NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION MON MORNING...WHILE A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE MON AND PASSES THROUGH MON NT.
SO...THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN APPEARS TO BE MON MORNING...ESP
ACROSS N/E AREAS...TAPERING TO SHOWERS DURING THE DAY...WITH AN
INCREASED THREAT OF SHOWERS AGAIN MON NT WITH THE FROPA. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT SHOWERS BECOME SCATTERED MON AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW
BREAKS OF SUN POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS. DEPENDING ON IF ANY SUN
CAN BREAK THROUGH...TEMPS COULD SURGE INTO THE 60S. FOR
NOW...GIVEN THAT IT IS NOVEMBER WITH SUCH A LOW SUN ANGLE...WE
THINK THAT AT LEAST SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY HOLD ON...AND THEREFORE
WENT A BIT COOLER THAN MOST GUIDANCE...WITH MAINLY 55-60 IN
VALLEYS...AND UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...ALTHOUGH
HAVE INCLUDED SOME 60-65 TEMPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT. AGAIN...SHOULD MORE
SUBSTANTIAL BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP...EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS
COULD OCCUR. SHOWERY AND WINDY CONDITIONS FOR MON NT AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. SHOWERS COULD MIX WITH/END AS SNOW ACROSS SOME
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS TOWARD TUE AM...WITH
MIN TEMPS FALLING INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S.

TUE-TUE NT...AT THIS VANTAGE POINT...APPEARS GRADUAL COOLING COULD
COMMENCE...WITH PERHAPS SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD STILL BE RATHER
MILD...GENERALLY 50-55 IN VALLEYS...AND 40S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. TUE NT MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID 30S FOR
LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND 25-30 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
EXTENDED...AS THE 00Z/21 GFS AND MOST GEFS INDICATE A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE EAST COAST...KEEPING MOST OF THE
PRECIP WELL E OF THE REGION...WHILE THE 00Z/21 ECMWF SUGGESTS THAT
THIS WAVE TRACKS CLOSER TO THE COAST...AND THAT PRECIP EXPANDS
ACROSS AT LEAST THE S/E HALF OF THE REGION...IF NOT EVEN FURTHER
N AND W. THIS HAS BEEN A N/W TREND IN THE ECMWF FROM PREVIOUS
CYCLES. WILL HAVE TO WATCH OVERALL TRENDS VERY CLOSELY...AS THE
ECMWF ALSO SUGGESTS THAT UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES POTENTIALLY CLOSES OFF A MID LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY. ALTHOUGH THE MODEL SUGGESTS THAT THE OFFSHORE WAVE
REMAINS SEPARATE FROM THIS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY...THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY THAT THE TWO COULD PHASE SHOULD THAT ENERGY DIG MORE
QUICKLY...RESULTING IN A MUCH MORE POTENT EAST COAST STORM SYSTEM.
AT THIS TIME...HAVE INDICATED CHC POPS FOR AREAS S/E OF ALBANY FOR
A RAIN/SNOW MIX WED...AND SLIGHT CHC ELSEWHERE. DEPENDING ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THESE TWO ENTITIES...THURSDAY COULD BE RATHER
BLUSTERY WITH AT LEAST SOME PASSING SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.
TEMPS WED-THU WILL TREND BELOW NORMAL...WITH GENERALLY UPPER
30S/LOWER 40S FOR MAX TEMPS IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER 30S ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD...12Z/SATURDAY. MVFR CLOUDS WILL LINGER DOWN THE MOHAWK
VALLEY AT KALB THIS MORNING AND POSSIBILITY AT KPSF.

HEIGHTS WILL RISE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES TO OUR EAST AND RIDGING BUILDS IN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST AT THE SURFACE. SO IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL
DECREASING CLOUD COVER.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL TIGHTEN RESULTING IN
BRISK AND GUSTY WINDS TODAY. WINDS WILL BE THE STRONGEST DOWN THE
MOHAWK VALLEY AND ACROSS THE TACONICS AND BERKSHIRES. WINDS WILL
DECREASE THIS EVENING AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...FZRA...SLEET.
SUN: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MON: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
MON NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUE: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE HSA THROUGH
SATURDAY...EXCEPT LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACK REGION AND THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL MOHAWK
VALLEY.

A WARM FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH TOTAL QPF LESS THAN A
QUARTER OF AN INCH.

MILDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S
SUNDAY...50S AND LOW 60S MONDAY AND 50S TUESDAY...WITH NIGHTTIME
LOWS MAINLY ABOVE FREEZING.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD BRING A HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH OF
RAINFALL TO THE HSA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS TUESDAY. AT THIS POINT NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE RAINFALL AND MINOR SNOW MELT ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/FRUGIS/HWJIV/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...IAA/HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...KL/SNYDER/WASULA








000
FXUS61 KALY 211744
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1244 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES
WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH COLD AND BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS.  A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT MIXED
PRECIPITATION...INCLUDING SOME FREEZING RAIN...TO THE REGION
SATURDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. A MILDER AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
IN TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND...BEFORE SOME RAIN ARRIVES EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1243 PM EST...LAKE EFFECT SNOW HAS TRANSITIONED INTO MULTI
BANDS...EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL NY AND ACROSS THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY
AND INTO THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY. SOME UPSLOPE
SNOW SHOWERS ARE ALSO OCCURRING IN THE SRN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND
BERKSHIRES AS WELL. MESOSCALE MODELS AREN/T PICKING UP ON THIS
ACTIVITY...BUT WILL GENERALLY EXPECT THESE SNOW SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE AREA LOWERS THE INVERSION HEIGHT...AND CAUSES MUCH OF THE
LAKE EFFECT TO END. ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY JUST BE
A COATING...ALTHOUGH A FEW SPOTS IN THE HIGHEST SPOTS IN THE
WESTERN FACING SLOPES OF THE TACONICS/BERKSHIRES MAY SEE CLOSE TO
AN INCH.

WITH COLD 850 HPA TEMPS IN PLACE /ABOUT -14 TO -15 DEGREES
C/...GOOD MIXING WILL OCCUR. THIS WILL ALLOW NW WINDS TO BE GUSTY
AT TIMES...WITH A FEW GUSTS OVER 25 KTS...ESP AT KALB...WHERE AIR
IS FUNNELED DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY
BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S FOR VALLEY
AREAS...AND UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN.

TONIGHT...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION.
AS THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LOWERS...THIS WILL WEAKEN THE LAKE SNOW
BAND EVEN MORE...BUT IT STILL MIGHT CONTINUE AS THE FLOW TURNS BACK
TO MORE OF A WESTERLY MEAN FLOW WHICH WOULD PUT THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
BAND ACROSS THE NORTHERN RIM OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
SOME OF THESE AREAS.

REMAINING REGIONS OF THE EASTERN NEW YORK AND ALL OF ADJACENT
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WILL BE DRY WITH A MAINLY CLEAR SKY TONIGHT. THE
WIND WILL LIGHTEN. THIS WILL MAKE THIS NIGHT THE BEST RADIATIONAL
COOLING NIGHT OF THIS COLD SPELL THUS FAR FOR MOST AREAS OUTSIDE OF
THE ADIRONDACKS. LOOK FOR LOWS TO TUMBLE TO THE TEENS FROM ALBANY
SOUTHWARD. UP WELL NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...LOWS WILL RANGE
5 TO 10 ABOVE. WHILE WE EXPECT MORE CLOUDS IN THE ADIRONDACKS...IF
ENOUGH THIN SPOTS IN THE CLOUDS WERE TO DEVELOP...SOME SNOW
SHELTERED VALLEYS COULD MAKE A RUN AT ZERO DEGREES...WHILE MOST OF
THE ADIRONDACKS WILL AVERAGE CLOSER TO 10 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...AFTER A COLD START...SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD START THE
DAY...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE RATHER QUICKLY FROM MID MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON AS MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT INTENSIFIES. GIVEN
THAT WE EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE FAIRLY QUICKLY...AND THAT TEMPS
WILL START OFF SO COLD...WE HAVE SIDED ON THE COLDER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE IN MOST AREAS...MID/UPPER 30S IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER 30S
ACROSS MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY
DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS...AND COULD REACH AREAS JUST W OF
THE HUDSON RIVER TOWARD OR JUST AFTER SUNSET. FORECAST THERMAL
PROFILES SUGGEST P-TYPE SHOULD START AS A LIGHT SNOW/SLEET MIX
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...AND PERHAPS SLEET/FREEZING RAIN ACROSS
THE MOHAWK VALLEY REGION.

SAT NT...MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT LIGHT
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO EXPAND E/NE ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
EVENING...AND PERSISTS INTERMITTENTLY THROUGH THE NIGHT...IN
ASSOCIATION WITH MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT...AS WELL AS SOME
ADDITIONAL DYNAMIC LIFT AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING NORTH OF
THE GREAT LAKES. AGAIN...THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THAT A LIGHT MIX
OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WOULD BE MOST LIKELY...ALTHOUGH COULD
CHANGE TO PLAIN RAIN LATER AT NIGHT IN VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY
SOUTH AND EAST AS SFC TEMPS RISE A BIT INTO AND THROUGH THE
LOWER/MID 30S. SINCE THE GROUND IS SO COLD...THE MAIN PROBLEM WITH
ANY FREEZING RAIN WOULD BE MAINLY TRAVEL RELATED...WITH SOME LIGHT
ICING POSSIBLE ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS
POTENTIAL IN THE HWOALY AT THIS TIME...BUT IF CONFIDENCE CONTINUES
TO INCREASE FOR THE OCCURRENCE OF FREEZING RAIN...THEN FREEZING
RAIN ADVISORIES WILL NEED TO BE ISSUED FOR AT LEAST PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS/LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION AND MOHAWK
VALLEY.

SUNDAY...MAIN THRUST OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DYNAMICS LIFT NORTH
AND EAST OF THE REGION...ALTHOUGH SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP MAY
STILL BE ONGOING INITIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS.
THEREAFTER...DESPITE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY BE TOUGH TO DISLODGE...ESP FOR AREAS NEAR AND N OF
INTERSTATE 90...WHERE LOW CLOUDS MAY PERSIST. HAVE SIDED ON THE
COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MOST AREAS...WITH MAX TEMPS EXPECTED
TO REACH 45-50 IN VALLEY AREAS...AND LOWER/MID 40S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. SOME LOWER 50S COULD OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS IN NW CT SHOULD MORE SUNSHINE
BE ABLE TO BREAK THROUGH.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES...AND A HEALTHY SURGE OF MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL
JET APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH...RAIN SHOULD DEVELOP FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. TEMPS MAY BRIEFLY FALL
INTO THE 30S IN THE EVENING...BEFORE RISING LATER AT NIGHT WITH
THE DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET MAX AND WARM ADVECTION. GENERALLY ONE
QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...WITH SOME
LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN SURGE OF WARM ADVECTION SHOULD LIFT
NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION MON MORNING...WHILE A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE MON AND PASSES THROUGH MON NT.
SO...THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN APPEARS TO BE MON MORNING...ESP
ACROSS N/E AREAS...TAPERING TO SHOWERS DURING THE DAY...WITH AN
INCREASED THREAT OF SHOWERS AGAIN MON NT WITH THE FROPA. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT SHOWERS BECOME SCATTERED MON AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW
BREAKS OF SUN POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS. DEPENDING ON IF ANY SUN
CAN BREAK THROUGH...TEMPS COULD SURGE INTO THE 60S. FOR
NOW...GIVEN THAT IT IS NOVEMBER WITH SUCH A LOW SUN ANGLE...WE
THINK THAT AT LEAST SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY HOLD ON...AND THEREFORE
WENT A BIT COOLER THAN MOST GUIDANCE...WITH MAINLY 55-60 IN
VALLEYS...AND UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...ALTHOUGH
HAVE INCLUDED SOME 60-65 TEMPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT. AGAIN...SHOULD MORE
SUBSTANTIAL BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP...EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS
COULD OCCUR. SHOWERY AND WINDY CONDITIONS FOR MON NT AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. SHOWERS COULD MIX WITH/END AS SNOW ACROSS SOME
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS TOWARD TUE AM...WITH
MIN TEMPS FALLING INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S.

TUE-TUE NT...AT THIS VANTAGE POINT...APPEARS GRADUAL COOLING COULD
COMMENCE...WITH PERHAPS SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD STILL BE RATHER
MILD...GENERALLY 50-55 IN VALLEYS...AND 40S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. TUE NT MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID 30S FOR
LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND 25-30 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
EXTENDED...AS THE 00Z/21 GFS AND MOST GEFS INDICATE A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE EAST COAST...KEEPING MOST OF THE
PRECIP WELL E OF THE REGION...WHILE THE 00Z/21 ECMWF SUGGESTS THAT
THIS WAVE TRACKS CLOSER TO THE COAST...AND THAT PRECIP EXPANDS
ACROSS AT LEAST THE S/E HALF OF THE REGION...IF NOT EVEN FURTHER
N AND W. THIS HAS BEEN A N/W TREND IN THE ECMWF FROM PREVIOUS
CYCLES. WILL HAVE TO WATCH OVERALL TRENDS VERY CLOSELY...AS THE
ECMWF ALSO SUGGESTS THAT UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES POTENTIALLY CLOSES OFF A MID LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY. ALTHOUGH THE MODEL SUGGESTS THAT THE OFFSHORE WAVE
REMAINS SEPARATE FROM THIS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY...THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY THAT THE TWO COULD PHASE SHOULD THAT ENERGY DIG MORE
QUICKLY...RESULTING IN A MUCH MORE POTENT EAST COAST STORM SYSTEM.
AT THIS TIME...HAVE INDICATED CHC POPS FOR AREAS S/E OF ALBANY FOR
A RAIN/SNOW MIX WED...AND SLIGHT CHC ELSEWHERE. DEPENDING ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THESE TWO ENTITIES...THURSDAY COULD BE RATHER
BLUSTERY WITH AT LEAST SOME PASSING SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.
TEMPS WED-THU WILL TREND BELOW NORMAL...WITH GENERALLY UPPER
30S/LOWER 40S FOR MAX TEMPS IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER 30S ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD...12Z/SATURDAY. MVFR CLOUDS WILL LINGER DOWN THE MOHAWK
VALLEY AT KALB THIS MORNING AND POSSIBILITY AT KPSF.

HEIGHTS WILL RISE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES TO OUR EAST AND RIDGING BUILDS IN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST AT THE SURFACE. SO IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL
DECREASING CLOUD COVER.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL TIGHTEN RESULTING IN
BRISK AND GUSTY WINDS TODAY. WINDS WILL BE THE STRONGEST DOWN THE
MOHAWK VALLEY AND ACROSS THE TACONICS AND BERKSHIRES. WINDS WILL
DECREASE THIS EVENING AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...FZRA...SLEET.
SUN: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MON: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
MON NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUE: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE HSA THROUGH
SATURDAY...EXCEPT LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACK REGION AND THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL MOHAWK
VALLEY.

A WARM FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH TOTAL QPF LESS THAN A
QUARTER OF AN INCH.

MILDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S
SUNDAY...50S AND LOW 60S MONDAY AND 50S TUESDAY...WITH NIGHTTIME
LOWS MAINLY ABOVE FREEZING.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD BRING A HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH OF
RAINFALL TO THE HSA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS TUESDAY. AT THIS POINT NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE RAINFALL AND MINOR SNOW MELT ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/FRUGIS/HWJIV/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...IAA/HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...KL/SNYDER/WASULA








000
FXUS61 KALY 211744
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1244 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES
WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH COLD AND BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS.  A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT MIXED
PRECIPITATION...INCLUDING SOME FREEZING RAIN...TO THE REGION
SATURDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. A MILDER AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
IN TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND...BEFORE SOME RAIN ARRIVES EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1243 PM EST...LAKE EFFECT SNOW HAS TRANSITIONED INTO MULTI
BANDS...EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL NY AND ACROSS THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY
AND INTO THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY. SOME UPSLOPE
SNOW SHOWERS ARE ALSO OCCURRING IN THE SRN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND
BERKSHIRES AS WELL. MESOSCALE MODELS AREN/T PICKING UP ON THIS
ACTIVITY...BUT WILL GENERALLY EXPECT THESE SNOW SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE AREA LOWERS THE INVERSION HEIGHT...AND CAUSES MUCH OF THE
LAKE EFFECT TO END. ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY JUST BE
A COATING...ALTHOUGH A FEW SPOTS IN THE HIGHEST SPOTS IN THE
WESTERN FACING SLOPES OF THE TACONICS/BERKSHIRES MAY SEE CLOSE TO
AN INCH.

WITH COLD 850 HPA TEMPS IN PLACE /ABOUT -14 TO -15 DEGREES
C/...GOOD MIXING WILL OCCUR. THIS WILL ALLOW NW WINDS TO BE GUSTY
AT TIMES...WITH A FEW GUSTS OVER 25 KTS...ESP AT KALB...WHERE AIR
IS FUNNELED DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY
BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S FOR VALLEY
AREAS...AND UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN.

TONIGHT...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION.
AS THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LOWERS...THIS WILL WEAKEN THE LAKE SNOW
BAND EVEN MORE...BUT IT STILL MIGHT CONTINUE AS THE FLOW TURNS BACK
TO MORE OF A WESTERLY MEAN FLOW WHICH WOULD PUT THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
BAND ACROSS THE NORTHERN RIM OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
SOME OF THESE AREAS.

REMAINING REGIONS OF THE EASTERN NEW YORK AND ALL OF ADJACENT
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WILL BE DRY WITH A MAINLY CLEAR SKY TONIGHT. THE
WIND WILL LIGHTEN. THIS WILL MAKE THIS NIGHT THE BEST RADIATIONAL
COOLING NIGHT OF THIS COLD SPELL THUS FAR FOR MOST AREAS OUTSIDE OF
THE ADIRONDACKS. LOOK FOR LOWS TO TUMBLE TO THE TEENS FROM ALBANY
SOUTHWARD. UP WELL NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...LOWS WILL RANGE
5 TO 10 ABOVE. WHILE WE EXPECT MORE CLOUDS IN THE ADIRONDACKS...IF
ENOUGH THIN SPOTS IN THE CLOUDS WERE TO DEVELOP...SOME SNOW
SHELTERED VALLEYS COULD MAKE A RUN AT ZERO DEGREES...WHILE MOST OF
THE ADIRONDACKS WILL AVERAGE CLOSER TO 10 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...AFTER A COLD START...SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD START THE
DAY...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE RATHER QUICKLY FROM MID MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON AS MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT INTENSIFIES. GIVEN
THAT WE EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE FAIRLY QUICKLY...AND THAT TEMPS
WILL START OFF SO COLD...WE HAVE SIDED ON THE COLDER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE IN MOST AREAS...MID/UPPER 30S IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER 30S
ACROSS MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY
DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS...AND COULD REACH AREAS JUST W OF
THE HUDSON RIVER TOWARD OR JUST AFTER SUNSET. FORECAST THERMAL
PROFILES SUGGEST P-TYPE SHOULD START AS A LIGHT SNOW/SLEET MIX
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...AND PERHAPS SLEET/FREEZING RAIN ACROSS
THE MOHAWK VALLEY REGION.

SAT NT...MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT LIGHT
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO EXPAND E/NE ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
EVENING...AND PERSISTS INTERMITTENTLY THROUGH THE NIGHT...IN
ASSOCIATION WITH MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT...AS WELL AS SOME
ADDITIONAL DYNAMIC LIFT AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING NORTH OF
THE GREAT LAKES. AGAIN...THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THAT A LIGHT MIX
OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WOULD BE MOST LIKELY...ALTHOUGH COULD
CHANGE TO PLAIN RAIN LATER AT NIGHT IN VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY
SOUTH AND EAST AS SFC TEMPS RISE A BIT INTO AND THROUGH THE
LOWER/MID 30S. SINCE THE GROUND IS SO COLD...THE MAIN PROBLEM WITH
ANY FREEZING RAIN WOULD BE MAINLY TRAVEL RELATED...WITH SOME LIGHT
ICING POSSIBLE ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS
POTENTIAL IN THE HWOALY AT THIS TIME...BUT IF CONFIDENCE CONTINUES
TO INCREASE FOR THE OCCURRENCE OF FREEZING RAIN...THEN FREEZING
RAIN ADVISORIES WILL NEED TO BE ISSUED FOR AT LEAST PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS/LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION AND MOHAWK
VALLEY.

SUNDAY...MAIN THRUST OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DYNAMICS LIFT NORTH
AND EAST OF THE REGION...ALTHOUGH SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP MAY
STILL BE ONGOING INITIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS.
THEREAFTER...DESPITE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY BE TOUGH TO DISLODGE...ESP FOR AREAS NEAR AND N OF
INTERSTATE 90...WHERE LOW CLOUDS MAY PERSIST. HAVE SIDED ON THE
COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MOST AREAS...WITH MAX TEMPS EXPECTED
TO REACH 45-50 IN VALLEY AREAS...AND LOWER/MID 40S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. SOME LOWER 50S COULD OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS IN NW CT SHOULD MORE SUNSHINE
BE ABLE TO BREAK THROUGH.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES...AND A HEALTHY SURGE OF MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL
JET APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH...RAIN SHOULD DEVELOP FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. TEMPS MAY BRIEFLY FALL
INTO THE 30S IN THE EVENING...BEFORE RISING LATER AT NIGHT WITH
THE DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET MAX AND WARM ADVECTION. GENERALLY ONE
QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...WITH SOME
LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN SURGE OF WARM ADVECTION SHOULD LIFT
NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION MON MORNING...WHILE A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE MON AND PASSES THROUGH MON NT.
SO...THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN APPEARS TO BE MON MORNING...ESP
ACROSS N/E AREAS...TAPERING TO SHOWERS DURING THE DAY...WITH AN
INCREASED THREAT OF SHOWERS AGAIN MON NT WITH THE FROPA. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT SHOWERS BECOME SCATTERED MON AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW
BREAKS OF SUN POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS. DEPENDING ON IF ANY SUN
CAN BREAK THROUGH...TEMPS COULD SURGE INTO THE 60S. FOR
NOW...GIVEN THAT IT IS NOVEMBER WITH SUCH A LOW SUN ANGLE...WE
THINK THAT AT LEAST SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY HOLD ON...AND THEREFORE
WENT A BIT COOLER THAN MOST GUIDANCE...WITH MAINLY 55-60 IN
VALLEYS...AND UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...ALTHOUGH
HAVE INCLUDED SOME 60-65 TEMPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT. AGAIN...SHOULD MORE
SUBSTANTIAL BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP...EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS
COULD OCCUR. SHOWERY AND WINDY CONDITIONS FOR MON NT AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. SHOWERS COULD MIX WITH/END AS SNOW ACROSS SOME
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS TOWARD TUE AM...WITH
MIN TEMPS FALLING INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S.

TUE-TUE NT...AT THIS VANTAGE POINT...APPEARS GRADUAL COOLING COULD
COMMENCE...WITH PERHAPS SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD STILL BE RATHER
MILD...GENERALLY 50-55 IN VALLEYS...AND 40S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. TUE NT MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID 30S FOR
LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND 25-30 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
EXTENDED...AS THE 00Z/21 GFS AND MOST GEFS INDICATE A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE EAST COAST...KEEPING MOST OF THE
PRECIP WELL E OF THE REGION...WHILE THE 00Z/21 ECMWF SUGGESTS THAT
THIS WAVE TRACKS CLOSER TO THE COAST...AND THAT PRECIP EXPANDS
ACROSS AT LEAST THE S/E HALF OF THE REGION...IF NOT EVEN FURTHER
N AND W. THIS HAS BEEN A N/W TREND IN THE ECMWF FROM PREVIOUS
CYCLES. WILL HAVE TO WATCH OVERALL TRENDS VERY CLOSELY...AS THE
ECMWF ALSO SUGGESTS THAT UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES POTENTIALLY CLOSES OFF A MID LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY. ALTHOUGH THE MODEL SUGGESTS THAT THE OFFSHORE WAVE
REMAINS SEPARATE FROM THIS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY...THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY THAT THE TWO COULD PHASE SHOULD THAT ENERGY DIG MORE
QUICKLY...RESULTING IN A MUCH MORE POTENT EAST COAST STORM SYSTEM.
AT THIS TIME...HAVE INDICATED CHC POPS FOR AREAS S/E OF ALBANY FOR
A RAIN/SNOW MIX WED...AND SLIGHT CHC ELSEWHERE. DEPENDING ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THESE TWO ENTITIES...THURSDAY COULD BE RATHER
BLUSTERY WITH AT LEAST SOME PASSING SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.
TEMPS WED-THU WILL TREND BELOW NORMAL...WITH GENERALLY UPPER
30S/LOWER 40S FOR MAX TEMPS IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER 30S ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD...12Z/SATURDAY. MVFR CLOUDS WILL LINGER DOWN THE MOHAWK
VALLEY AT KALB THIS MORNING AND POSSIBILITY AT KPSF.

HEIGHTS WILL RISE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES TO OUR EAST AND RIDGING BUILDS IN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST AT THE SURFACE. SO IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL
DECREASING CLOUD COVER.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL TIGHTEN RESULTING IN
BRISK AND GUSTY WINDS TODAY. WINDS WILL BE THE STRONGEST DOWN THE
MOHAWK VALLEY AND ACROSS THE TACONICS AND BERKSHIRES. WINDS WILL
DECREASE THIS EVENING AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...FZRA...SLEET.
SUN: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MON: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
MON NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUE: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE HSA THROUGH
SATURDAY...EXCEPT LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACK REGION AND THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL MOHAWK
VALLEY.

A WARM FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH TOTAL QPF LESS THAN A
QUARTER OF AN INCH.

MILDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S
SUNDAY...50S AND LOW 60S MONDAY AND 50S TUESDAY...WITH NIGHTTIME
LOWS MAINLY ABOVE FREEZING.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD BRING A HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH OF
RAINFALL TO THE HSA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS TUESDAY. AT THIS POINT NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE RAINFALL AND MINOR SNOW MELT ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/FRUGIS/HWJIV/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...IAA/HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...KL/SNYDER/WASULA








000
FXUS61 KOKX 211730
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1230 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT AND SHIFTS
OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. A WEAK WARM FRONT THEN PASSES NEARBY
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ANOTHER WARM FRONT APPROACHES AND
LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN STALLS OFFSHORE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

COLD...DRY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST WITH SFC DEWPOINTS MAINLY
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS. NW WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 15-20
MPH WITH 20-30 MPH GUSTS...RESULTING IN WIND CHILLS IN THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WINDS SUBSIDE TONIGHT AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE NEARS THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. CLEAR WITH LOW TEMPS 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

A RETURN WSW-SW FLOW ON SATURDAY WILL HELP TEMPERATURES
MODERATE...BUT HIGHS WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL LEVELS. SUN
FILTERED THROUGH SOME CIRRUS IN SPOTS IN THE MORNING...THEN SOME
LOWER CLOUDS ENTERING DURING THE AFTERNOON.

CLOUDS THICKEN MORE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAK WARM FRONT PASSING
THROUGH. BETTER LIFT OVERALL TO THE NORTH...AND ENOUGH MOISTURE TO
MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHC POPS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CITY. AN ELEVATED
WARM LAYER WILL HAVE ANY PCPN REACHING THE GROUND AS RAIN. THERE IS
HOWEVER A CHANCE THAT IT COULD BE FREEZING RAIN ACROSS MAINLY THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. EXPECTING TEMPS TO
RISE A LITTLE FOR THE MOST PART OVERNIGHT WITH THE WARM ADVECTION
AND INCREASING CLOUDS...BUT TEMPS ARE STILL FORECAST TO BE AT OR
CLOSE TO FREEZING LATE AT NIGHT FOR THESE AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES NORTH OF THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
WITH UPPER RIDGING QUICKLY BUILDING OVERHEAD DURING THE DAY ON
IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW OVER
THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. ANY LIGHT PRECIP THAT DEVELOPS EARLY ENDS
QUICKLY WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AND SEASONABLE DAY.

A WARM FRONT THEN APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING
WIDESPREAD RAIN. MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT IN THE TIMING OF
THE BEST LIFT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z MONDAY.
THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY MORNING TAKING THE
BEST LIFT AND DEEPEST MOISTURE NORTH AND EAST. SOME LINGERING LOW
CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER THE WARM FRONT PASSES...BUT EXPECT ENOUGH
SUNSHINE IN COMBINATION WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW TO WARM
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 60S...WARMEST IN THE NEW YORK CITY METRO. A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. BEHIND THE FRONT
ON TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL IN THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S.

THE FRONT STALLS OFFSHORE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE PROGRESSION
OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWS DOWN DUE TO DEEP RIDGING OVER THE
EASTERN ATLANTIC. THIS PATTERN SETS UP A BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG THE
EAST COAST. 00Z MODELS DEPICT A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
ALONG THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE AS ENERGY ROTATES AROUND THE BASE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
EAST OR OVER THE 40/70 BENCHMARK ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AS EXPECTED SIX DAYS OUT...THERE ARE TIMING AND INTENSITY
DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS. THE 00Z ECMWF IS THE SLOWEST AND
STRONGEST AMONGST THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS. HOWEVER...IT SHOULD BE
NOTED SEVERAL MEMBERS OF THE 00Z GEFS SHOW A SLOWER AND STRONGER LOW
CLOSER TO THE COAST. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FUTURE MODEL TRENDS AS
THIS WILL BE OCCURRING DURING THE BUSIEST TRAVEL DAY OF THE YEAR.
UNCERTAINTIES EXIST IN HOW FAR WEST THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL
REACH...AND THE EXTENT OF COLD AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS THAT WILL BE
AVAILABLE. SYSTEM MOVES NORTH AND EAST ON THURSDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND PASSES SOUTH OF
THE AREA SATURDAY.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCT CU THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.

GUSTY NW WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STRONGEST GUSTS DURING THE
DAY...THEN A DRAMATIC DECREASE TONIGHT.

WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST AND WILL BE QUITE LIGHT LATE TONIGHT.
SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO 8-12 KTS AFTER 14-15Z SATURDAY.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTIONS WILL BE NEAR 310 MAGNETIC THIS
AFTERNOON. GUSTS BECOME LESS FREQUENT AFTER 22-00Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTIONS WILL BE NEAR 310 MAGNETIC THIS
AFTERNOON. GUSTS BECOME LESS FREQUENT AFTER 22-00Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTIONS WILL BE NEAR 310 MAGNETIC THIS
AFTERNOON. GUSTS BECOME LESS FREQUENT AFTER 22-00Z.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS BECOME LESS FREQUENT AFTER 21-23Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS BECOME LESS FREQUENT AFTER 21-23Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS BECOME LESS FREQUENT AFTER 21-23Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SAT THROUGH WED...
.SAT AFTERNOON-SAT NIGHT...VFR. SW WINDS 10-15 GUSTS UP TO 20 KT DURING THE
DAYTIME.
.SUN...VFR.
.SUN NIGHT-MON...BECOMING MVFR/IFR. POSSIBLY SUB-IFR. RA AND FG
WITH LLWS POSSIBLE.
.MON NIGHT-TUE...VFR.
.WED...MAINLY VFR...ALTHOUGH POSSIBLE RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX MAY
IMPACT THE AREA...ESPECIALLY EAST OF NYC METRO.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDS TODAY FOR ALL WATERS...WITH SCA CONDS CONTINUING INTO A
PORTION OF TONIGHT FOR THE OCEAN WATERS/EASTERN SOUND/EASTERN
BAYS. LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER SCA COULD BE NEEDED FOR THESE SAME AREAS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS A WSW FLOW INCREASES.

SCA WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AND THEN AGAIN ON MONDAY
WITH AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. GALE
FORCE WINDS COULD OCCUR ON MONDAY AS WELL. THE FRONT MOVES EAST OF
THE WATERS ON TUESDAY...BUT WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN AT SCA
LEVELS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE COMBINATION OF FREQUENT GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH...RH VALUES
DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 PERCENT...AND 4 DAYS
WITHOUT RAINFALL WILL PRESENT AN ENHANCED THREAT FOR BRUSH FIRE
SPREAD IF IGNITION OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY ON THE
COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN AMOUNTS THROUGH SUNDAY. RAIN IS EXPECTED SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH NO HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ335-
     338-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-
     340-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/DS
NEAR TERM...JC/MPS
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...JC/DS
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JC/DS








000
FXUS61 KOKX 211640
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1140 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT AND SHIFTS
OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. A WEAK WARM FRONT THEN PASSES NEARBY
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ANOTHER WARM FRONT APPROACHES AND
LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN STALLS OFFSHORE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

COLD...DRY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST WITH SFC DEWPOINTS MAINLY
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS. NW WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 15-20
MPH WITH 20-30 MPH GUSTS...RESULTING IN WIND CHILLS IN THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WINDS SUBSIDE TONIGHT AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE NEARS THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. CLEAR WITH LOW TEMPS 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

A RETURN WSW-SW FLOW ON SATURDAY WILL HELP TEMPERATURES
MODERATE...BUT HIGHS WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL LEVELS. SUN
FILTERED THROUGH SOME CIRRUS IN SPOTS IN THE MORNING...THEN SOME
LOWER CLOUDS ENTERING DURING THE AFTERNOON.

CLOUDS THICKEN MORE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAK WARM FRONT PASSING
THROUGH. BETTER LIFT OVERALL TO THE NORTH...AND ENOUGH MOISTURE TO
MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHC POPS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CITY. AN ELEVATED
WARM LAYER WILL HAVE ANY PCPN REACHING THE GROUND AS RAIN. THERE IS
HOWEVER A CHANCE THAT IT COULD BE FREEZING RAIN ACROSS MAINLY THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. EXPECTING TEMPS TO
RISE A LITTLE FOR THE MOST PART OVERNIGHT WITH THE WARM ADVECTION
AND INCREASING CLOUDS...BUT TEMPS ARE STILL FORECAST TO BE AT OR
CLOSE TO FREEZING LATE AT NIGHT FOR THESE AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES NORTH OF THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
WITH UPPER RIDGING QUICKLY BUILDING OVERHEAD DURING THE DAY ON
IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW OVER
THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. ANY LIGHT PRECIP THAT DEVELOPS EARLY ENDS
QUICKLY WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AND SEASONABLE DAY.

A WARM FRONT THEN APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING
WIDESPREAD RAIN. MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT IN THE TIMING OF
THE BEST LIFT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z MONDAY.
THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY MORNING TAKING THE
BEST LIFT AND DEEPEST MOISTURE NORTH AND EAST. SOME LINGERING LOW
CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER THE WARM FRONT PASSES...BUT EXPECT ENOUGH
SUNSHINE IN COMBINATION WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW TO WARM
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 60S...WARMEST IN THE NEW YORK CITY METRO. A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. BEHIND THE FRONT
ON TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL IN THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S.

THE FRONT STALLS OFFSHORE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE PROGRESSION
OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWS DOWN DUE TO DEEP RIDGING OVER THE
EASTERN ATLANTIC. THIS PATTERN SETS UP A BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG THE
EAST COAST. 00Z MODELS DEPICT A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
ALONG THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE AS ENERGY ROTATES AROUND THE BASE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
EAST OR OVER THE 40/70 BENCHMARK ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AS EXPECTED SIX DAYS OUT...THERE ARE TIMING AND INTENSITY
DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS. THE 00Z ECMWF IS THE SLOWEST AND
STRONGEST AMONGST THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS. HOWEVER...IT SHOULD BE
NOTED SEVERAL MEMBERS OF THE 00Z GEFS SHOW A SLOWER AND STRONGER LOW
CLOSER TO THE COAST. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FUTURE MODEL TRENDS AS
THIS WILL BE OCCURRING DURING THE BUSIEST TRAVEL DAY OF THE YEAR.
UNCERTAINTIES EXIST IN HOW FAR WEST THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL
REACH...AND THE EXTENT OF COLD AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS THAT WILL BE
AVAILABLE. SYSTEM MOVES NORTH AND EAST ON THURSDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

NW WINDS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. STRONGEST GUSTS DURING THE
DAY...THEN A DRAMATIC DECREASE TONIGHT.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTIONS WILL BE NEAR 310 MAGNETIC
TODAY...AND MAY FLUCTUATE ACROSS THE LINE THROUGHOUT THE AFTN/EVE.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTIONS WILL BE NEAR 310 MAGNETIC
TODAY...AND MAY FLUCTUATE ACROSS THE LINE THROUGHOUT THE AFTN/EVE.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTIONS WILL BE NEAR OR RIGHT ALONG
310 MAGNETIC TODAY. COULD REMAIN JUST LEFT OR ON 310...BUT MAY
FLUCTUATE ACROSS THE LINE THROUGHOUT THE AFTN/EVE.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS WELL INTO THE 20S TODAY.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SAT THROUGH TUE...
.SAT-SAT NIGHT...VFR. SW WINDS 10-15 GUSTS UP TO 20 KT DURING THE DAY.
.SUN...MAINLY VFR.
.SUN NIGHT-MON...MVFR/IFR. POSSIBLY SUB-IFR. RA AND FG WITH LLWS
POSSIBLE.
.TUE...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDS TODAY FOR ALL WATERS...WITH SCA CONDS CONTINUING INTO A
PORTION OF TONIGHT FOR THE OCEAN WATERS/EASTERN SOUND/EASTERN
BAYS. LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER SCA COULD BE NEEDED FOR THESE SAME AREAS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS A WSW FLOW INCREASES.

SCA WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AND THEN AGAIN ON MONDAY
WITH AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. GALE
FORCE WINDS COULD OCCUR ON MONDAY AS WELL. THE FRONT MOVES EAST OF
THE WATERS ON TUESDAY...BUT WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN AT SCA
LEVELS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE COMBINATION OF FREQUENT GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH...RH VALUES
DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 PERCENT...AND 4 DAYS
WITHOUT RAINFALL WILL PRESENT AN ENHANCED THREAT FOR BRUSH FIRE
SPREAD IF IGNITION OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY ON THE
COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN AMOUNTS THROUGH SUNDAY. RAIN IS EXPECTED SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH NO HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ335-
     338-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-
     340-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/DS
NEAR TERM...JC/MPS
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...JC/DS
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JC/DS











000
FXUS61 KALY 211518
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1018 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS..
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN TODAY AND TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT
MIXED PRECIPITATION INCLUDING CHANCES FREEZING RAIN TO THE AREA
SATURDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. A MILDER AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE IN TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HAVE DROPPED THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN HERKIMER
COUNTY. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS HAVE DIMINISHED AND MOVE TO THE
SOUTH OF THIS AREA. WE ARE ALSO GETTING SOME UPSLOPE LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS THE TACONICS AND BERKSHIRES. HAVE UPDATED FORECAST TO
ADDRESS THESE AND ALSO UPDATED TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS...WINDS
AND SKY COVER INTO TONIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE WAS WORKING ACROSS
THE REGION...BRINGING A FEW FLURRIES AND CLOUDS OF ITS OWN. THIS
SHORT WAVE WILL SERVE TO PUSH THE LOW LEVEL MEAN FLOW TO MORE OF
300 VECTOR...WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY SEND THE LAKE SNOW BAND SOUTH
INTO NORTHERN CATSKILLS LATER THIS MORNING.

THERE IS STILL A SLIM CHANCE THAT THE LAKE BAND MIGHT MAKE IT INTO
THE CAPITAL REGION...THROUGH SUNRISE...BUT THE INLAND LAKE EXTENT
OFF THE CSTAR CVIE GENERALLY WOULD INDICATE THE BAND NOT QUITE
MAKING INTO THE CAPITAL REGION.

THE VAST MAJORITY EASTERN NEW YORK AND ADJACENT NEW ENGLAND WILL
REMAIN DRY WITH A CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY. THE WIND IN MOST CASES
HAS ABATED TO ABOUT 5 MPH...MAINLY OUT OF THE SW. TEMPERATURES
RANGED FROM THE TEENS TO TO MID 20S...LOCALLY LOWER 20S IN THE
CAPITAL REGION.

TEMPERATURES HAVE GENERALLY BOTTOMED OUT IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

THE AIR IS QUITE COLD NOT ONLY AT THE SURFACE BUT ALOFT...SO WE
BELIEVE A ADDITIONAL INSTABILITY CLOUDS WILL FORM AFTER
SUNRISE...MAINLY FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD. ALSO...THE WIND WILL PICK
UP FROM THE NORTHWEST...GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH. THERE COULD BE A FEW
INSTABILITY TYPE SNOW FLURRIES/SHOWERS OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE BAND.
OTHERWISE...IT SHOULD BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE FALL YET WITH
HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE MID 30S ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
LOWER LITCHFIELD COUNTY...CLOSER TO 30 NORTHERN LITCHFIELD...THE
CAPITAL REGION AND SURROUNDING AREAS. AS ONE HEADS NORTHWEST INTO
THE MOHAWK VALLEY OR NORTH OF GLENS FALLS...EASTWARD TO
VERMONT...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD TO THE MID TO UPPER
20S...EXCEPT LOWER 20S OVER THE SNOW COVERED AREAS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS.

WIND CHILLS WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN THE ACTUAL
TEMPERATURES.

TONIGHT...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION.
AS THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LOWERS...THIS WILL WEAKEN THE LAKE SNOW
BAND EVEN MORE...BUT IT STILL MIGHT CONTINUE AS THE FLOW TURNS BACK
TO MORE OF A WESTERLY MEAN FLOW WHICH WOULD PUT THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
BAND ACROSS THE NORTHERN RIM OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
SOME OF THESE AREAS.

REMAINING REGIONS OF THE EASTERN NEW YORK AND ALL OF ADJACENT
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WILL BE DRY WITH A MAINLY CLEAR SKY TONIGHT. THE
WIND WILL LIGHTEN. THIS WILL MAKE THIS NIGHT THE BEST RADIATIONAL
COOLING NIGHT OF THIS COLD SPELL THUS FAR FOR MOST AREAS OUTSIDE OF
THE ADIRONDACKS. LOOK FOR LOWS TO TUMBLE TO THE TEENS FROM ALBANY
SOUTHWARD. UP WELL NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...LOWS WILL RANGE
5 TO 10 ABOVE. WHILE WE EXPECT MORE CLOUDS IN THE ADIRONDACKS...IF
ENOUGH THIN SPOTS IN THE CLOUDS WERE TO DEVELOP...SOME SNOW
SHELTERED VALLEYS COULD MAKE A RUN AT ZERO DEGREES...WHILE MOST OF
THE ADIRONDACKS WILL AVERAGE CLOSER TO 10 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...AFTER A COLD START...SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD START THE
DAY...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE RATHER QUICKLY FROM MID MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON AS MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT INTENSIFIES. GIVEN
THAT WE EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE FAIRLY QUICKLY...AND THAT TEMPS
WILL START OFF SO COLD...WE HAVE SIDED ON THE COLDER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE IN MOST AREAS...MID/UPPER 30S IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER 30S
ACROSS MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY
DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS...AND COULD REACH AREAS JUST W OF
THE HUDSON RIVER TOWARD OR JUST AFTER SUNSET. FORECAST THERMAL
PROFILES SUGGEST P-TYPE SHOULD START AS A LIGHT SNOW/SLEET MIX
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...AND PERHAPS SLEET/FREEZING RAIN ACROSS
THE MOHAWK VALLEY REGION.

SAT NT...MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT LIGHT
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO EXPAND E/NE ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
EVENING...AND PERSISTS INTERMITTENTLY THROUGH THE NIGHT...IN
ASSOCIATION WITH MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT...AS WELL AS SOME
ADDITIONAL DYNAMIC LIFT AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING NORTH OF
THE GREAT LAKES. AGAIN...THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THAT A LIGHT MIX
OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WOULD BE MOST LIKELY...ALTHOUGH COULD
CHANGE TO PLAIN RAIN LATER AT NIGHT IN VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY
SOUTH AND EAST AS SFC TEMPS RISE A BIT INTO AND THROUGH THE
LOWER/MID 30S. SINCE THE GROUND IS SO COLD...THE MAIN PROBLEM WITH
ANY FREEZING RAIN WOULD BE MAINLY TRAVEL RELATED...WITH SOME LIGHT
ICING POSSIBLE ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS
POTENTIAL IN THE HWOALY AT THIS TIME...BUT IF CONFIDENCE CONTINUES
TO INCREASE FOR THE OCCURRENCE OF FREEZING RAIN...THEN FREEZING
RAIN ADVISORIES WILL NEED TO BE ISSUED FOR AT LEAST PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS/LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION AND MOHAWK
VALLEY.

SUNDAY...MAIN THRUST OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DYNAMICS LIFT NORTH
AND EAST OF THE REGION...ALTHOUGH SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP MAY
STILL BE ONGOING INITIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS.
THEREAFTER...DESPITE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY BE TOUGH TO DISLODGE...ESP FOR AREAS NEAR AND N OF
INTERSTATE 90...WHERE LOW CLOUDS MAY PERSIST. HAVE SIDED ON THE
COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MOST AREAS...WITH MAX TEMPS EXPECTED
TO REACH 45-50 IN VALLEY AREAS...AND LOWER/MID 40S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. SOME LOWER 50S COULD OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS IN NW CT SHOULD MORE SUNSHINE
BE ABLE TO BREAK THROUGH.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES...AND A HEALTHY SURGE OF MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL
JET APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH...RAIN SHOULD DEVELOP FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. TEMPS MAY BRIEFLY FALL
INTO THE 30S IN THE EVENING...BEFORE RISING LATER AT NIGHT WITH
THE DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET MAX AND WARM ADVECTION. GENERALLY ONE
QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...WITH SOME
LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN SURGE OF WARM ADVECTION SHOULD LIFT
NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION MON MORNING...WHILE A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE MON AND PASSES THROUGH MON NT.
SO...THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN APPEARS TO BE MON MORNING...ESP
ACROSS N/E AREAS...TAPERING TO SHOWERS DURING THE DAY...WITH AN
INCREASED THREAT OF SHOWERS AGAIN MON NT WITH THE FROPA. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT SHOWERS BECOME SCATTERED MON AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW
BREAKS OF SUN POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS. DEPENDING ON IF ANY SUN
CAN BREAK THROUGH...TEMPS COULD SURGE INTO THE 60S. FOR
NOW...GIVEN THAT IT IS NOVEMBER WITH SUCH A LOW SUN ANGLE...WE
THINK THAT AT LEAST SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY HOLD ON...AND THEREFORE
WENT A BIT COOLER THAN MOST GUIDANCE...WITH MAINLY 55-60 IN
VALLEYS...AND UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...ALTHOUGH
HAVE INCLUDED SOME 60-65 TEMPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT. AGAIN...SHOULD MORE
SUBSTANTIAL BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP...EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS
COULD OCCUR. SHOWERY AND WINDY CONDITIONS FOR MON NT AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. SHOWERS COULD MIX WITH/END AS SNOW ACROSS SOME
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS TOWARD TUE AM...WITH
MIN TEMPS FALLING INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S.

TUE-TUE NT...AT THIS VANTAGE POINT...APPEARS GRADUAL COOLING COULD
COMMENCE...WITH PERHAPS SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD STILL BE RATHER
MILD...GENERALLY 50-55 IN VALLEYS...AND 40S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. TUE NT MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID 30S FOR
LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND 25-30 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
EXTENDED...AS THE 00Z/21 GFS AND MOST GEFS INDICATE A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE EAST COAST...KEEPING MOST OF THE
PRECIP WELL E OF THE REGION...WHILE THE 00Z/21 ECMWF SUGGESTS THAT
THIS WAVE TRACKS CLOSER TO THE COAST...AND THAT PRECIP EXPANDS
ACROSS AT LEAST THE S/E HALF OF THE REGION...IF NOT EVEN FURTHER
N AND W. THIS HAS BEEN A N/W TREND IN THE ECMWF FROM PREVIOUS
CYCLES. WILL HAVE TO WATCH OVERALL TRENDS VERY CLOSELY...AS THE
ECMWF ALSO SUGGESTS THAT UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES POTENTIALLY CLOSES OFF A MID LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY. ALTHOUGH THE MODEL SUGGESTS THAT THE OFFSHORE WAVE
REMAINS SEPARATE FROM THIS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY...THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY THAT THE TWO COULD PHASE SHOULD THAT ENERGY DIG MORE
QUICKLY...RESULTING IN A MUCH MORE POTENT EAST COAST STORM SYSTEM.
AT THIS TIME...HAVE INDICATED CHC POPS FOR AREAS S/E OF ALBANY FOR
A RAIN/SNOW MIX WED...AND SLIGHT CHC ELSEWHERE. DEPENDING ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THESE TWO ENTITIES...THURSDAY COULD BE RATHER
BLUSTERY WITH AT LEAST SOME PASSING SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.
TEMPS WED-THU WILL TREND BELOW NORMAL...WITH GENERALLY UPPER
30S/LOWER 40S FOR MAX TEMPS IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER 30S ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD...12Z/SATURDAY. MVFR CLOUDS WILL LINGER DOWN THE MOHAWK
VALLEY AT KALB THIS MORNING AND POSSIBILITY AT KPSF.

HEIGHTS WILL RISE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES TO OUR EAST AND RIDGING BUILDS IN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST AT THE SURFACE. SO IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL
DECREASING CLOUD COVER.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL TIGHTEN RESULTING IN
BRISK AND GUSTY WINDS TODAY. WINDS WILL BE THE STRONGEST DOWN THE
MOHAWK VALLEY AND ACROSS THE TACONICS AND BERKSHIRES. WINDS WILL
DECREASE THIS EVENING AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...FZRA...SLEET.
SUN: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MON: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
MON NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUE: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE HSA THROUGH
SATURDAY...EXCEPT LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACK REGION AND THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL MOHAWK
VALLEY.

A WARM FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH TOTAL QPF LESS THAN A
QUARTER OF AN INCH.

MILDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S
SUNDAY...50S AND LOW 60S MONDAY AND 50S TUESDAY...WITH NIGHTTIME
LOWS MAINLY ABOVE FREEZING.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD BRING A HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH OF
RAINFALL TO THE HSA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS TUESDAY. AT THIS POINT NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE RAINFALL AND MINOR SNOW MELT ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/HWJIV/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...IAA/HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...KL/SNYDER/WASULA







000
FXUS61 KALY 211518
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1018 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS..
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN TODAY AND TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT
MIXED PRECIPITATION INCLUDING CHANCES FREEZING RAIN TO THE AREA
SATURDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. A MILDER AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE IN TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HAVE DROPPED THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN HERKIMER
COUNTY. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS HAVE DIMINISHED AND MOVE TO THE
SOUTH OF THIS AREA. WE ARE ALSO GETTING SOME UPSLOPE LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS THE TACONICS AND BERKSHIRES. HAVE UPDATED FORECAST TO
ADDRESS THESE AND ALSO UPDATED TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS...WINDS
AND SKY COVER INTO TONIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE WAS WORKING ACROSS
THE REGION...BRINGING A FEW FLURRIES AND CLOUDS OF ITS OWN. THIS
SHORT WAVE WILL SERVE TO PUSH THE LOW LEVEL MEAN FLOW TO MORE OF
300 VECTOR...WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY SEND THE LAKE SNOW BAND SOUTH
INTO NORTHERN CATSKILLS LATER THIS MORNING.

THERE IS STILL A SLIM CHANCE THAT THE LAKE BAND MIGHT MAKE IT INTO
THE CAPITAL REGION...THROUGH SUNRISE...BUT THE INLAND LAKE EXTENT
OFF THE CSTAR CVIE GENERALLY WOULD INDICATE THE BAND NOT QUITE
MAKING INTO THE CAPITAL REGION.

THE VAST MAJORITY EASTERN NEW YORK AND ADJACENT NEW ENGLAND WILL
REMAIN DRY WITH A CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY. THE WIND IN MOST CASES
HAS ABATED TO ABOUT 5 MPH...MAINLY OUT OF THE SW. TEMPERATURES
RANGED FROM THE TEENS TO TO MID 20S...LOCALLY LOWER 20S IN THE
CAPITAL REGION.

TEMPERATURES HAVE GENERALLY BOTTOMED OUT IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

THE AIR IS QUITE COLD NOT ONLY AT THE SURFACE BUT ALOFT...SO WE
BELIEVE A ADDITIONAL INSTABILITY CLOUDS WILL FORM AFTER
SUNRISE...MAINLY FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD. ALSO...THE WIND WILL PICK
UP FROM THE NORTHWEST...GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH. THERE COULD BE A FEW
INSTABILITY TYPE SNOW FLURRIES/SHOWERS OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE BAND.
OTHERWISE...IT SHOULD BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE FALL YET WITH
HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE MID 30S ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
LOWER LITCHFIELD COUNTY...CLOSER TO 30 NORTHERN LITCHFIELD...THE
CAPITAL REGION AND SURROUNDING AREAS. AS ONE HEADS NORTHWEST INTO
THE MOHAWK VALLEY OR NORTH OF GLENS FALLS...EASTWARD TO
VERMONT...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD TO THE MID TO UPPER
20S...EXCEPT LOWER 20S OVER THE SNOW COVERED AREAS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS.

WIND CHILLS WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN THE ACTUAL
TEMPERATURES.

TONIGHT...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION.
AS THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LOWERS...THIS WILL WEAKEN THE LAKE SNOW
BAND EVEN MORE...BUT IT STILL MIGHT CONTINUE AS THE FLOW TURNS BACK
TO MORE OF A WESTERLY MEAN FLOW WHICH WOULD PUT THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
BAND ACROSS THE NORTHERN RIM OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
SOME OF THESE AREAS.

REMAINING REGIONS OF THE EASTERN NEW YORK AND ALL OF ADJACENT
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WILL BE DRY WITH A MAINLY CLEAR SKY TONIGHT. THE
WIND WILL LIGHTEN. THIS WILL MAKE THIS NIGHT THE BEST RADIATIONAL
COOLING NIGHT OF THIS COLD SPELL THUS FAR FOR MOST AREAS OUTSIDE OF
THE ADIRONDACKS. LOOK FOR LOWS TO TUMBLE TO THE TEENS FROM ALBANY
SOUTHWARD. UP WELL NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...LOWS WILL RANGE
5 TO 10 ABOVE. WHILE WE EXPECT MORE CLOUDS IN THE ADIRONDACKS...IF
ENOUGH THIN SPOTS IN THE CLOUDS WERE TO DEVELOP...SOME SNOW
SHELTERED VALLEYS COULD MAKE A RUN AT ZERO DEGREES...WHILE MOST OF
THE ADIRONDACKS WILL AVERAGE CLOSER TO 10 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...AFTER A COLD START...SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD START THE
DAY...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE RATHER QUICKLY FROM MID MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON AS MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT INTENSIFIES. GIVEN
THAT WE EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE FAIRLY QUICKLY...AND THAT TEMPS
WILL START OFF SO COLD...WE HAVE SIDED ON THE COLDER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE IN MOST AREAS...MID/UPPER 30S IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER 30S
ACROSS MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY
DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS...AND COULD REACH AREAS JUST W OF
THE HUDSON RIVER TOWARD OR JUST AFTER SUNSET. FORECAST THERMAL
PROFILES SUGGEST P-TYPE SHOULD START AS A LIGHT SNOW/SLEET MIX
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...AND PERHAPS SLEET/FREEZING RAIN ACROSS
THE MOHAWK VALLEY REGION.

SAT NT...MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT LIGHT
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO EXPAND E/NE ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
EVENING...AND PERSISTS INTERMITTENTLY THROUGH THE NIGHT...IN
ASSOCIATION WITH MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT...AS WELL AS SOME
ADDITIONAL DYNAMIC LIFT AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING NORTH OF
THE GREAT LAKES. AGAIN...THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THAT A LIGHT MIX
OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WOULD BE MOST LIKELY...ALTHOUGH COULD
CHANGE TO PLAIN RAIN LATER AT NIGHT IN VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY
SOUTH AND EAST AS SFC TEMPS RISE A BIT INTO AND THROUGH THE
LOWER/MID 30S. SINCE THE GROUND IS SO COLD...THE MAIN PROBLEM WITH
ANY FREEZING RAIN WOULD BE MAINLY TRAVEL RELATED...WITH SOME LIGHT
ICING POSSIBLE ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS
POTENTIAL IN THE HWOALY AT THIS TIME...BUT IF CONFIDENCE CONTINUES
TO INCREASE FOR THE OCCURRENCE OF FREEZING RAIN...THEN FREEZING
RAIN ADVISORIES WILL NEED TO BE ISSUED FOR AT LEAST PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS/LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION AND MOHAWK
VALLEY.

SUNDAY...MAIN THRUST OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DYNAMICS LIFT NORTH
AND EAST OF THE REGION...ALTHOUGH SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP MAY
STILL BE ONGOING INITIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS.
THEREAFTER...DESPITE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY BE TOUGH TO DISLODGE...ESP FOR AREAS NEAR AND N OF
INTERSTATE 90...WHERE LOW CLOUDS MAY PERSIST. HAVE SIDED ON THE
COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MOST AREAS...WITH MAX TEMPS EXPECTED
TO REACH 45-50 IN VALLEY AREAS...AND LOWER/MID 40S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. SOME LOWER 50S COULD OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS IN NW CT SHOULD MORE SUNSHINE
BE ABLE TO BREAK THROUGH.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES...AND A HEALTHY SURGE OF MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL
JET APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH...RAIN SHOULD DEVELOP FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. TEMPS MAY BRIEFLY FALL
INTO THE 30S IN THE EVENING...BEFORE RISING LATER AT NIGHT WITH
THE DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET MAX AND WARM ADVECTION. GENERALLY ONE
QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...WITH SOME
LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN SURGE OF WARM ADVECTION SHOULD LIFT
NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION MON MORNING...WHILE A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE MON AND PASSES THROUGH MON NT.
SO...THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN APPEARS TO BE MON MORNING...ESP
ACROSS N/E AREAS...TAPERING TO SHOWERS DURING THE DAY...WITH AN
INCREASED THREAT OF SHOWERS AGAIN MON NT WITH THE FROPA. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT SHOWERS BECOME SCATTERED MON AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW
BREAKS OF SUN POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS. DEPENDING ON IF ANY SUN
CAN BREAK THROUGH...TEMPS COULD SURGE INTO THE 60S. FOR
NOW...GIVEN THAT IT IS NOVEMBER WITH SUCH A LOW SUN ANGLE...WE
THINK THAT AT LEAST SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY HOLD ON...AND THEREFORE
WENT A BIT COOLER THAN MOST GUIDANCE...WITH MAINLY 55-60 IN
VALLEYS...AND UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...ALTHOUGH
HAVE INCLUDED SOME 60-65 TEMPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT. AGAIN...SHOULD MORE
SUBSTANTIAL BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP...EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS
COULD OCCUR. SHOWERY AND WINDY CONDITIONS FOR MON NT AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. SHOWERS COULD MIX WITH/END AS SNOW ACROSS SOME
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS TOWARD TUE AM...WITH
MIN TEMPS FALLING INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S.

TUE-TUE NT...AT THIS VANTAGE POINT...APPEARS GRADUAL COOLING COULD
COMMENCE...WITH PERHAPS SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD STILL BE RATHER
MILD...GENERALLY 50-55 IN VALLEYS...AND 40S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. TUE NT MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID 30S FOR
LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND 25-30 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
EXTENDED...AS THE 00Z/21 GFS AND MOST GEFS INDICATE A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE EAST COAST...KEEPING MOST OF THE
PRECIP WELL E OF THE REGION...WHILE THE 00Z/21 ECMWF SUGGESTS THAT
THIS WAVE TRACKS CLOSER TO THE COAST...AND THAT PRECIP EXPANDS
ACROSS AT LEAST THE S/E HALF OF THE REGION...IF NOT EVEN FURTHER
N AND W. THIS HAS BEEN A N/W TREND IN THE ECMWF FROM PREVIOUS
CYCLES. WILL HAVE TO WATCH OVERALL TRENDS VERY CLOSELY...AS THE
ECMWF ALSO SUGGESTS THAT UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES POTENTIALLY CLOSES OFF A MID LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY. ALTHOUGH THE MODEL SUGGESTS THAT THE OFFSHORE WAVE
REMAINS SEPARATE FROM THIS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY...THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY THAT THE TWO COULD PHASE SHOULD THAT ENERGY DIG MORE
QUICKLY...RESULTING IN A MUCH MORE POTENT EAST COAST STORM SYSTEM.
AT THIS TIME...HAVE INDICATED CHC POPS FOR AREAS S/E OF ALBANY FOR
A RAIN/SNOW MIX WED...AND SLIGHT CHC ELSEWHERE. DEPENDING ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THESE TWO ENTITIES...THURSDAY COULD BE RATHER
BLUSTERY WITH AT LEAST SOME PASSING SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.
TEMPS WED-THU WILL TREND BELOW NORMAL...WITH GENERALLY UPPER
30S/LOWER 40S FOR MAX TEMPS IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER 30S ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD...12Z/SATURDAY. MVFR CLOUDS WILL LINGER DOWN THE MOHAWK
VALLEY AT KALB THIS MORNING AND POSSIBILITY AT KPSF.

HEIGHTS WILL RISE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES TO OUR EAST AND RIDGING BUILDS IN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST AT THE SURFACE. SO IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL
DECREASING CLOUD COVER.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL TIGHTEN RESULTING IN
BRISK AND GUSTY WINDS TODAY. WINDS WILL BE THE STRONGEST DOWN THE
MOHAWK VALLEY AND ACROSS THE TACONICS AND BERKSHIRES. WINDS WILL
DECREASE THIS EVENING AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...FZRA...SLEET.
SUN: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MON: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
MON NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUE: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE HSA THROUGH
SATURDAY...EXCEPT LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACK REGION AND THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL MOHAWK
VALLEY.

A WARM FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH TOTAL QPF LESS THAN A
QUARTER OF AN INCH.

MILDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S
SUNDAY...50S AND LOW 60S MONDAY AND 50S TUESDAY...WITH NIGHTTIME
LOWS MAINLY ABOVE FREEZING.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD BRING A HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH OF
RAINFALL TO THE HSA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS TUESDAY. AT THIS POINT NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE RAINFALL AND MINOR SNOW MELT ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/HWJIV/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...IAA/HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...KL/SNYDER/WASULA







000
FXUS61 KALY 211518
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1018 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS..
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN TODAY AND TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT
MIXED PRECIPITATION INCLUDING CHANCES FREEZING RAIN TO THE AREA
SATURDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. A MILDER AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE IN TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HAVE DROPPED THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN HERKIMER
COUNTY. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS HAVE DIMINISHED AND MOVE TO THE
SOUTH OF THIS AREA. WE ARE ALSO GETTING SOME UPSLOPE LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS THE TACONICS AND BERKSHIRES. HAVE UPDATED FORECAST TO
ADDRESS THESE AND ALSO UPDATED TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS...WINDS
AND SKY COVER INTO TONIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE WAS WORKING ACROSS
THE REGION...BRINGING A FEW FLURRIES AND CLOUDS OF ITS OWN. THIS
SHORT WAVE WILL SERVE TO PUSH THE LOW LEVEL MEAN FLOW TO MORE OF
300 VECTOR...WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY SEND THE LAKE SNOW BAND SOUTH
INTO NORTHERN CATSKILLS LATER THIS MORNING.

THERE IS STILL A SLIM CHANCE THAT THE LAKE BAND MIGHT MAKE IT INTO
THE CAPITAL REGION...THROUGH SUNRISE...BUT THE INLAND LAKE EXTENT
OFF THE CSTAR CVIE GENERALLY WOULD INDICATE THE BAND NOT QUITE
MAKING INTO THE CAPITAL REGION.

THE VAST MAJORITY EASTERN NEW YORK AND ADJACENT NEW ENGLAND WILL
REMAIN DRY WITH A CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY. THE WIND IN MOST CASES
HAS ABATED TO ABOUT 5 MPH...MAINLY OUT OF THE SW. TEMPERATURES
RANGED FROM THE TEENS TO TO MID 20S...LOCALLY LOWER 20S IN THE
CAPITAL REGION.

TEMPERATURES HAVE GENERALLY BOTTOMED OUT IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

THE AIR IS QUITE COLD NOT ONLY AT THE SURFACE BUT ALOFT...SO WE
BELIEVE A ADDITIONAL INSTABILITY CLOUDS WILL FORM AFTER
SUNRISE...MAINLY FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD. ALSO...THE WIND WILL PICK
UP FROM THE NORTHWEST...GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH. THERE COULD BE A FEW
INSTABILITY TYPE SNOW FLURRIES/SHOWERS OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE BAND.
OTHERWISE...IT SHOULD BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE FALL YET WITH
HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE MID 30S ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
LOWER LITCHFIELD COUNTY...CLOSER TO 30 NORTHERN LITCHFIELD...THE
CAPITAL REGION AND SURROUNDING AREAS. AS ONE HEADS NORTHWEST INTO
THE MOHAWK VALLEY OR NORTH OF GLENS FALLS...EASTWARD TO
VERMONT...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD TO THE MID TO UPPER
20S...EXCEPT LOWER 20S OVER THE SNOW COVERED AREAS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS.

WIND CHILLS WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN THE ACTUAL
TEMPERATURES.

TONIGHT...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION.
AS THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LOWERS...THIS WILL WEAKEN THE LAKE SNOW
BAND EVEN MORE...BUT IT STILL MIGHT CONTINUE AS THE FLOW TURNS BACK
TO MORE OF A WESTERLY MEAN FLOW WHICH WOULD PUT THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
BAND ACROSS THE NORTHERN RIM OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
SOME OF THESE AREAS.

REMAINING REGIONS OF THE EASTERN NEW YORK AND ALL OF ADJACENT
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WILL BE DRY WITH A MAINLY CLEAR SKY TONIGHT. THE
WIND WILL LIGHTEN. THIS WILL MAKE THIS NIGHT THE BEST RADIATIONAL
COOLING NIGHT OF THIS COLD SPELL THUS FAR FOR MOST AREAS OUTSIDE OF
THE ADIRONDACKS. LOOK FOR LOWS TO TUMBLE TO THE TEENS FROM ALBANY
SOUTHWARD. UP WELL NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...LOWS WILL RANGE
5 TO 10 ABOVE. WHILE WE EXPECT MORE CLOUDS IN THE ADIRONDACKS...IF
ENOUGH THIN SPOTS IN THE CLOUDS WERE TO DEVELOP...SOME SNOW
SHELTERED VALLEYS COULD MAKE A RUN AT ZERO DEGREES...WHILE MOST OF
THE ADIRONDACKS WILL AVERAGE CLOSER TO 10 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...AFTER A COLD START...SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD START THE
DAY...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE RATHER QUICKLY FROM MID MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON AS MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT INTENSIFIES. GIVEN
THAT WE EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE FAIRLY QUICKLY...AND THAT TEMPS
WILL START OFF SO COLD...WE HAVE SIDED ON THE COLDER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE IN MOST AREAS...MID/UPPER 30S IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER 30S
ACROSS MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY
DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS...AND COULD REACH AREAS JUST W OF
THE HUDSON RIVER TOWARD OR JUST AFTER SUNSET. FORECAST THERMAL
PROFILES SUGGEST P-TYPE SHOULD START AS A LIGHT SNOW/SLEET MIX
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...AND PERHAPS SLEET/FREEZING RAIN ACROSS
THE MOHAWK VALLEY REGION.

SAT NT...MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT LIGHT
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO EXPAND E/NE ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
EVENING...AND PERSISTS INTERMITTENTLY THROUGH THE NIGHT...IN
ASSOCIATION WITH MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT...AS WELL AS SOME
ADDITIONAL DYNAMIC LIFT AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING NORTH OF
THE GREAT LAKES. AGAIN...THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THAT A LIGHT MIX
OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WOULD BE MOST LIKELY...ALTHOUGH COULD
CHANGE TO PLAIN RAIN LATER AT NIGHT IN VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY
SOUTH AND EAST AS SFC TEMPS RISE A BIT INTO AND THROUGH THE
LOWER/MID 30S. SINCE THE GROUND IS SO COLD...THE MAIN PROBLEM WITH
ANY FREEZING RAIN WOULD BE MAINLY TRAVEL RELATED...WITH SOME LIGHT
ICING POSSIBLE ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS
POTENTIAL IN THE HWOALY AT THIS TIME...BUT IF CONFIDENCE CONTINUES
TO INCREASE FOR THE OCCURRENCE OF FREEZING RAIN...THEN FREEZING
RAIN ADVISORIES WILL NEED TO BE ISSUED FOR AT LEAST PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS/LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION AND MOHAWK
VALLEY.

SUNDAY...MAIN THRUST OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DYNAMICS LIFT NORTH
AND EAST OF THE REGION...ALTHOUGH SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP MAY
STILL BE ONGOING INITIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS.
THEREAFTER...DESPITE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY BE TOUGH TO DISLODGE...ESP FOR AREAS NEAR AND N OF
INTERSTATE 90...WHERE LOW CLOUDS MAY PERSIST. HAVE SIDED ON THE
COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MOST AREAS...WITH MAX TEMPS EXPECTED
TO REACH 45-50 IN VALLEY AREAS...AND LOWER/MID 40S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. SOME LOWER 50S COULD OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS IN NW CT SHOULD MORE SUNSHINE
BE ABLE TO BREAK THROUGH.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES...AND A HEALTHY SURGE OF MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL
JET APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH...RAIN SHOULD DEVELOP FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. TEMPS MAY BRIEFLY FALL
INTO THE 30S IN THE EVENING...BEFORE RISING LATER AT NIGHT WITH
THE DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET MAX AND WARM ADVECTION. GENERALLY ONE
QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...WITH SOME
LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN SURGE OF WARM ADVECTION SHOULD LIFT
NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION MON MORNING...WHILE A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE MON AND PASSES THROUGH MON NT.
SO...THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN APPEARS TO BE MON MORNING...ESP
ACROSS N/E AREAS...TAPERING TO SHOWERS DURING THE DAY...WITH AN
INCREASED THREAT OF SHOWERS AGAIN MON NT WITH THE FROPA. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT SHOWERS BECOME SCATTERED MON AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW
BREAKS OF SUN POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS. DEPENDING ON IF ANY SUN
CAN BREAK THROUGH...TEMPS COULD SURGE INTO THE 60S. FOR
NOW...GIVEN THAT IT IS NOVEMBER WITH SUCH A LOW SUN ANGLE...WE
THINK THAT AT LEAST SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY HOLD ON...AND THEREFORE
WENT A BIT COOLER THAN MOST GUIDANCE...WITH MAINLY 55-60 IN
VALLEYS...AND UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...ALTHOUGH
HAVE INCLUDED SOME 60-65 TEMPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT. AGAIN...SHOULD MORE
SUBSTANTIAL BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP...EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS
COULD OCCUR. SHOWERY AND WINDY CONDITIONS FOR MON NT AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. SHOWERS COULD MIX WITH/END AS SNOW ACROSS SOME
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS TOWARD TUE AM...WITH
MIN TEMPS FALLING INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S.

TUE-TUE NT...AT THIS VANTAGE POINT...APPEARS GRADUAL COOLING COULD
COMMENCE...WITH PERHAPS SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD STILL BE RATHER
MILD...GENERALLY 50-55 IN VALLEYS...AND 40S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. TUE NT MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID 30S FOR
LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND 25-30 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
EXTENDED...AS THE 00Z/21 GFS AND MOST GEFS INDICATE A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE EAST COAST...KEEPING MOST OF THE
PRECIP WELL E OF THE REGION...WHILE THE 00Z/21 ECMWF SUGGESTS THAT
THIS WAVE TRACKS CLOSER TO THE COAST...AND THAT PRECIP EXPANDS
ACROSS AT LEAST THE S/E HALF OF THE REGION...IF NOT EVEN FURTHER
N AND W. THIS HAS BEEN A N/W TREND IN THE ECMWF FROM PREVIOUS
CYCLES. WILL HAVE TO WATCH OVERALL TRENDS VERY CLOSELY...AS THE
ECMWF ALSO SUGGESTS THAT UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES POTENTIALLY CLOSES OFF A MID LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY. ALTHOUGH THE MODEL SUGGESTS THAT THE OFFSHORE WAVE
REMAINS SEPARATE FROM THIS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY...THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY THAT THE TWO COULD PHASE SHOULD THAT ENERGY DIG MORE
QUICKLY...RESULTING IN A MUCH MORE POTENT EAST COAST STORM SYSTEM.
AT THIS TIME...HAVE INDICATED CHC POPS FOR AREAS S/E OF ALBANY FOR
A RAIN/SNOW MIX WED...AND SLIGHT CHC ELSEWHERE. DEPENDING ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THESE TWO ENTITIES...THURSDAY COULD BE RATHER
BLUSTERY WITH AT LEAST SOME PASSING SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.
TEMPS WED-THU WILL TREND BELOW NORMAL...WITH GENERALLY UPPER
30S/LOWER 40S FOR MAX TEMPS IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER 30S ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD...12Z/SATURDAY. MVFR CLOUDS WILL LINGER DOWN THE MOHAWK
VALLEY AT KALB THIS MORNING AND POSSIBILITY AT KPSF.

HEIGHTS WILL RISE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES TO OUR EAST AND RIDGING BUILDS IN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST AT THE SURFACE. SO IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL
DECREASING CLOUD COVER.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL TIGHTEN RESULTING IN
BRISK AND GUSTY WINDS TODAY. WINDS WILL BE THE STRONGEST DOWN THE
MOHAWK VALLEY AND ACROSS THE TACONICS AND BERKSHIRES. WINDS WILL
DECREASE THIS EVENING AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...FZRA...SLEET.
SUN: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MON: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
MON NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUE: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE HSA THROUGH
SATURDAY...EXCEPT LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACK REGION AND THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL MOHAWK
VALLEY.

A WARM FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH TOTAL QPF LESS THAN A
QUARTER OF AN INCH.

MILDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S
SUNDAY...50S AND LOW 60S MONDAY AND 50S TUESDAY...WITH NIGHTTIME
LOWS MAINLY ABOVE FREEZING.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD BRING A HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH OF
RAINFALL TO THE HSA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS TUESDAY. AT THIS POINT NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE RAINFALL AND MINOR SNOW MELT ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/HWJIV/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...IAA/HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...KL/SNYDER/WASULA







000
FXUS61 KALY 211518
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1018 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS..
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN TODAY AND TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT
MIXED PRECIPITATION INCLUDING CHANCES FREEZING RAIN TO THE AREA
SATURDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. A MILDER AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE IN TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HAVE DROPPED THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN HERKIMER
COUNTY. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS HAVE DIMINISHED AND MOVE TO THE
SOUTH OF THIS AREA. WE ARE ALSO GETTING SOME UPSLOPE LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS THE TACONICS AND BERKSHIRES. HAVE UPDATED FORECAST TO
ADDRESS THESE AND ALSO UPDATED TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS...WINDS
AND SKY COVER INTO TONIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE WAS WORKING ACROSS
THE REGION...BRINGING A FEW FLURRIES AND CLOUDS OF ITS OWN. THIS
SHORT WAVE WILL SERVE TO PUSH THE LOW LEVEL MEAN FLOW TO MORE OF
300 VECTOR...WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY SEND THE LAKE SNOW BAND SOUTH
INTO NORTHERN CATSKILLS LATER THIS MORNING.

THERE IS STILL A SLIM CHANCE THAT THE LAKE BAND MIGHT MAKE IT INTO
THE CAPITAL REGION...THROUGH SUNRISE...BUT THE INLAND LAKE EXTENT
OFF THE CSTAR CVIE GENERALLY WOULD INDICATE THE BAND NOT QUITE
MAKING INTO THE CAPITAL REGION.

THE VAST MAJORITY EASTERN NEW YORK AND ADJACENT NEW ENGLAND WILL
REMAIN DRY WITH A CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY. THE WIND IN MOST CASES
HAS ABATED TO ABOUT 5 MPH...MAINLY OUT OF THE SW. TEMPERATURES
RANGED FROM THE TEENS TO TO MID 20S...LOCALLY LOWER 20S IN THE
CAPITAL REGION.

TEMPERATURES HAVE GENERALLY BOTTOMED OUT IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

THE AIR IS QUITE COLD NOT ONLY AT THE SURFACE BUT ALOFT...SO WE
BELIEVE A ADDITIONAL INSTABILITY CLOUDS WILL FORM AFTER
SUNRISE...MAINLY FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD. ALSO...THE WIND WILL PICK
UP FROM THE NORTHWEST...GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH. THERE COULD BE A FEW
INSTABILITY TYPE SNOW FLURRIES/SHOWERS OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE BAND.
OTHERWISE...IT SHOULD BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE FALL YET WITH
HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE MID 30S ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
LOWER LITCHFIELD COUNTY...CLOSER TO 30 NORTHERN LITCHFIELD...THE
CAPITAL REGION AND SURROUNDING AREAS. AS ONE HEADS NORTHWEST INTO
THE MOHAWK VALLEY OR NORTH OF GLENS FALLS...EASTWARD TO
VERMONT...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD TO THE MID TO UPPER
20S...EXCEPT LOWER 20S OVER THE SNOW COVERED AREAS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS.

WIND CHILLS WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN THE ACTUAL
TEMPERATURES.

TONIGHT...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION.
AS THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LOWERS...THIS WILL WEAKEN THE LAKE SNOW
BAND EVEN MORE...BUT IT STILL MIGHT CONTINUE AS THE FLOW TURNS BACK
TO MORE OF A WESTERLY MEAN FLOW WHICH WOULD PUT THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
BAND ACROSS THE NORTHERN RIM OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
SOME OF THESE AREAS.

REMAINING REGIONS OF THE EASTERN NEW YORK AND ALL OF ADJACENT
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WILL BE DRY WITH A MAINLY CLEAR SKY TONIGHT. THE
WIND WILL LIGHTEN. THIS WILL MAKE THIS NIGHT THE BEST RADIATIONAL
COOLING NIGHT OF THIS COLD SPELL THUS FAR FOR MOST AREAS OUTSIDE OF
THE ADIRONDACKS. LOOK FOR LOWS TO TUMBLE TO THE TEENS FROM ALBANY
SOUTHWARD. UP WELL NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...LOWS WILL RANGE
5 TO 10 ABOVE. WHILE WE EXPECT MORE CLOUDS IN THE ADIRONDACKS...IF
ENOUGH THIN SPOTS IN THE CLOUDS WERE TO DEVELOP...SOME SNOW
SHELTERED VALLEYS COULD MAKE A RUN AT ZERO DEGREES...WHILE MOST OF
THE ADIRONDACKS WILL AVERAGE CLOSER TO 10 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...AFTER A COLD START...SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD START THE
DAY...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE RATHER QUICKLY FROM MID MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON AS MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT INTENSIFIES. GIVEN
THAT WE EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE FAIRLY QUICKLY...AND THAT TEMPS
WILL START OFF SO COLD...WE HAVE SIDED ON THE COLDER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE IN MOST AREAS...MID/UPPER 30S IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER 30S
ACROSS MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY
DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS...AND COULD REACH AREAS JUST W OF
THE HUDSON RIVER TOWARD OR JUST AFTER SUNSET. FORECAST THERMAL
PROFILES SUGGEST P-TYPE SHOULD START AS A LIGHT SNOW/SLEET MIX
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...AND PERHAPS SLEET/FREEZING RAIN ACROSS
THE MOHAWK VALLEY REGION.

SAT NT...MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT LIGHT
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO EXPAND E/NE ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
EVENING...AND PERSISTS INTERMITTENTLY THROUGH THE NIGHT...IN
ASSOCIATION WITH MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT...AS WELL AS SOME
ADDITIONAL DYNAMIC LIFT AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING NORTH OF
THE GREAT LAKES. AGAIN...THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THAT A LIGHT MIX
OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WOULD BE MOST LIKELY...ALTHOUGH COULD
CHANGE TO PLAIN RAIN LATER AT NIGHT IN VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY
SOUTH AND EAST AS SFC TEMPS RISE A BIT INTO AND THROUGH THE
LOWER/MID 30S. SINCE THE GROUND IS SO COLD...THE MAIN PROBLEM WITH
ANY FREEZING RAIN WOULD BE MAINLY TRAVEL RELATED...WITH SOME LIGHT
ICING POSSIBLE ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS
POTENTIAL IN THE HWOALY AT THIS TIME...BUT IF CONFIDENCE CONTINUES
TO INCREASE FOR THE OCCURRENCE OF FREEZING RAIN...THEN FREEZING
RAIN ADVISORIES WILL NEED TO BE ISSUED FOR AT LEAST PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS/LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION AND MOHAWK
VALLEY.

SUNDAY...MAIN THRUST OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DYNAMICS LIFT NORTH
AND EAST OF THE REGION...ALTHOUGH SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP MAY
STILL BE ONGOING INITIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS.
THEREAFTER...DESPITE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY BE TOUGH TO DISLODGE...ESP FOR AREAS NEAR AND N OF
INTERSTATE 90...WHERE LOW CLOUDS MAY PERSIST. HAVE SIDED ON THE
COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MOST AREAS...WITH MAX TEMPS EXPECTED
TO REACH 45-50 IN VALLEY AREAS...AND LOWER/MID 40S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. SOME LOWER 50S COULD OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS IN NW CT SHOULD MORE SUNSHINE
BE ABLE TO BREAK THROUGH.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES...AND A HEALTHY SURGE OF MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL
JET APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH...RAIN SHOULD DEVELOP FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. TEMPS MAY BRIEFLY FALL
INTO THE 30S IN THE EVENING...BEFORE RISING LATER AT NIGHT WITH
THE DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET MAX AND WARM ADVECTION. GENERALLY ONE
QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...WITH SOME
LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN SURGE OF WARM ADVECTION SHOULD LIFT
NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION MON MORNING...WHILE A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE MON AND PASSES THROUGH MON NT.
SO...THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN APPEARS TO BE MON MORNING...ESP
ACROSS N/E AREAS...TAPERING TO SHOWERS DURING THE DAY...WITH AN
INCREASED THREAT OF SHOWERS AGAIN MON NT WITH THE FROPA. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT SHOWERS BECOME SCATTERED MON AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW
BREAKS OF SUN POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS. DEPENDING ON IF ANY SUN
CAN BREAK THROUGH...TEMPS COULD SURGE INTO THE 60S. FOR
NOW...GIVEN THAT IT IS NOVEMBER WITH SUCH A LOW SUN ANGLE...WE
THINK THAT AT LEAST SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY HOLD ON...AND THEREFORE
WENT A BIT COOLER THAN MOST GUIDANCE...WITH MAINLY 55-60 IN
VALLEYS...AND UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...ALTHOUGH
HAVE INCLUDED SOME 60-65 TEMPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT. AGAIN...SHOULD MORE
SUBSTANTIAL BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP...EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS
COULD OCCUR. SHOWERY AND WINDY CONDITIONS FOR MON NT AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. SHOWERS COULD MIX WITH/END AS SNOW ACROSS SOME
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS TOWARD TUE AM...WITH
MIN TEMPS FALLING INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S.

TUE-TUE NT...AT THIS VANTAGE POINT...APPEARS GRADUAL COOLING COULD
COMMENCE...WITH PERHAPS SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD STILL BE RATHER
MILD...GENERALLY 50-55 IN VALLEYS...AND 40S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. TUE NT MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID 30S FOR
LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND 25-30 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
EXTENDED...AS THE 00Z/21 GFS AND MOST GEFS INDICATE A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE EAST COAST...KEEPING MOST OF THE
PRECIP WELL E OF THE REGION...WHILE THE 00Z/21 ECMWF SUGGESTS THAT
THIS WAVE TRACKS CLOSER TO THE COAST...AND THAT PRECIP EXPANDS
ACROSS AT LEAST THE S/E HALF OF THE REGION...IF NOT EVEN FURTHER
N AND W. THIS HAS BEEN A N/W TREND IN THE ECMWF FROM PREVIOUS
CYCLES. WILL HAVE TO WATCH OVERALL TRENDS VERY CLOSELY...AS THE
ECMWF ALSO SUGGESTS THAT UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES POTENTIALLY CLOSES OFF A MID LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY. ALTHOUGH THE MODEL SUGGESTS THAT THE OFFSHORE WAVE
REMAINS SEPARATE FROM THIS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY...THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY THAT THE TWO COULD PHASE SHOULD THAT ENERGY DIG MORE
QUICKLY...RESULTING IN A MUCH MORE POTENT EAST COAST STORM SYSTEM.
AT THIS TIME...HAVE INDICATED CHC POPS FOR AREAS S/E OF ALBANY FOR
A RAIN/SNOW MIX WED...AND SLIGHT CHC ELSEWHERE. DEPENDING ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THESE TWO ENTITIES...THURSDAY COULD BE RATHER
BLUSTERY WITH AT LEAST SOME PASSING SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.
TEMPS WED-THU WILL TREND BELOW NORMAL...WITH GENERALLY UPPER
30S/LOWER 40S FOR MAX TEMPS IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER 30S ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD...12Z/SATURDAY. MVFR CLOUDS WILL LINGER DOWN THE MOHAWK
VALLEY AT KALB THIS MORNING AND POSSIBILITY AT KPSF.

HEIGHTS WILL RISE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES TO OUR EAST AND RIDGING BUILDS IN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST AT THE SURFACE. SO IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL
DECREASING CLOUD COVER.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL TIGHTEN RESULTING IN
BRISK AND GUSTY WINDS TODAY. WINDS WILL BE THE STRONGEST DOWN THE
MOHAWK VALLEY AND ACROSS THE TACONICS AND BERKSHIRES. WINDS WILL
DECREASE THIS EVENING AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...FZRA...SLEET.
SUN: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MON: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
MON NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUE: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE HSA THROUGH
SATURDAY...EXCEPT LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACK REGION AND THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL MOHAWK
VALLEY.

A WARM FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH TOTAL QPF LESS THAN A
QUARTER OF AN INCH.

MILDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S
SUNDAY...50S AND LOW 60S MONDAY AND 50S TUESDAY...WITH NIGHTTIME
LOWS MAINLY ABOVE FREEZING.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD BRING A HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH OF
RAINFALL TO THE HSA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS TUESDAY. AT THIS POINT NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE RAINFALL AND MINOR SNOW MELT ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/HWJIV/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...IAA/HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...KL/SNYDER/WASULA







000
FXUS61 KBOX 211439
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
940 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BLUSTERY AND UNSEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS TODAY. TEMPERATURES
MODERATE SATURDAY WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS...THEN A SIGNIFICANT
WARM-UP IS IN STORE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A PERIOD OF RAIN. A COASTAL STORM MAY AFFECT THE
REGION SOMETIME DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BUT IT IS UNCERTAIN
HOW CLOSE IT WILL TRACK TO NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

940 AM UPDATE...

PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT MAY
JUST SEE A TOUCH OF DIURNAL CUMULUS ESPECIALLY IN THE INTERIOR.

UNSEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH 850 MB TEMPS -13/14C...
WHICH TRANSLATES TO MAXES UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 IN THE NW HIGHER
TERRAIN...TO MAINLY THE MIDDLE 30S COASTAL PLAIN.  WIND WILL BE A
FACTOR AS PRESSURE GRADIENT AND GOOD MIXING SUPPORTS NW WIND GUSTS
TO 25-35 MPH.  THIS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE TEENS TO
LOWER 20S FOR MOST OF THE DAY!  SO IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE JANUARY
THAN NOVEMBER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...
CENTER OF HIGH PRES MOVES TO THE MID ATLC COAST BUT RIDGE AXIS
BUILDS INTO NEW ENG WHICH WILL RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WIND AS PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. GIVEN VERY DRY
AIRMASS IT WILL BE A COLD NIGHT AS DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
DEVELOPS. MINS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE TEENS...EXCEPT LOWER 20S
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. LOW PROB FOR SOME SINGLE NUMBER MIN
TEMPS W MA AND SW NH.

SATURDAY...
HIGH PRES BUILDS S OF NEW ENG WITH SUNSHINE GIVING WAY TO
INCREASING AFTERNOON CLOUDS AS LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES FROM THE WEST. INCREASING SW FLOW BRINGS MILDER AIR
INTO SNE AS PRONOUNCED LOW AND MID LEVEL WARMING OCCURS. AFTER A
RATHER COLD START...TEMPS WILL RECOVER INTO THE MID 30S TO LOWER
40S. 40 KT LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS BY LATE DAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO
GUSTY SW WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COAST WHERE BETTER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
WITH THE ECMWF AND GFS OPERATIONAL RUNS CONTINUING TO SHOW
MODERATE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MID TERM...A GENERAL BLEND WILL BE
USED AS A BASELINE. ITS NOT UNTIL LATER ABOUT MID WEEK THAT THE
STRONGEST DIVERGENCE IN MODEL SOLUTIONS EVEN AMONG
ENSEMBLES/MEANS...SO CONFIDENCE THROUGH MON-TUE REMAINS RELATIVELY
HIGH WHILE CONFIDENCE BECOMES LOW FROM MID NEXT WEEK THROUGH THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY PERIOD.

THE ISSUE IS LIKELY THE SHIFTING PATTERN THROUGH THE
PERIOD...STARTING WITH BUILDING RIDGE SUN-MON AS PHASING NORTHERN
AND SOUTHERN STREAM WAVES DEVELOP INTO OCCLUDING SYSTEM AROUND THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS DEVELOPING TROF IS THEN EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
DEEPEN AND DIG INTO A SLOWER LONGWAVE TROF TO THE
W...SIMILAR...THOUGH NOT AS COLD AS THIS WEEK/S DEEP TROUGH BUT
WITH THE AXIS FURTHER TO THE W. THEREFORE...TIME-MEAN JET REMAINS
SOUTHWESTERLY AND WARMING UNTIL THE CORE CAN SLIDE TO THE E LATER
IN THE WEEK. AGREE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER...THAT THIS
SUGGEST THE NEAR NORMAL TO WARM WEATHER CONTINUES UNTIL A COOLING
TREND OCCURS LATER IN THE WEEK.

DETAILS...

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN EVENING...
SFC WARM FRONT WILL BE NOSING IN FROM THE W WHILE SHIFTING TO THE
N WITH TIME TOWARD 12Z SUN. NOTE MODEST MID LVL ISENTROPIC LIFT
WITH SOME MOISTURE SUGGESTING LOW END CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIP
ESPECIALLY N OF THE MA PIKE AND W OF I-495. TIMING WILL BE THE KEY
HERE...AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTER THAT IF THE CLOUDS BUILD IN
TOO QUICKLY TEMPS MAY REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING WHILE
ALLOWANCE FOR MORE COOLING SUGGESTS THAT SFC TEMPS MAY BE A FEW
DEGREES BELOW FREEZING. THEREFORE...MAY HAVE TO MONITOR FOR LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN...IF THE TEMPS FALL BACK INTO THE MID-UPPER 20S
LIGHT ICING IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT AGAIN TOTAL RAINFALL
WOULD BE LIGHT AND TEMPS MAY PRECLUDE ANY IMPACTS. WILL NEED TO
WATCH THIS AS WE APPROACH. OTHERWISE SUN...WARMING EXPECTED WITH
AREAS REACHING THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S BY LATE IN THE DAY IN SPITE
OF INCREASING CLOUDS. DWPTS ALSO RISE AS WELL.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...
OCCLUDING LOW PRES TO THE W WILL PUSH 60-65 KT LLJ THROUGH THE
REGION DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MON. THIS WILL BE
COINCIDENT WITH 1.0 INCH PWATS /ABOUT 2 STD DEVIATIONS FROM
NORMAL/. THEREFORE...EXPECT SOME WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WITH MODEST
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS AS K VALUES HOVER AROUND 30...SUGGESTING HEAVY
RAIN. THIS COULD ALSO YIELD SOME STRONG WINDS AND POSSIBLY EVEN A
FINE-LINE DEVELOPMENT WHICH WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. OVERALL
RAINFALL VALUES OF 0.5-1.0 INCHES EXPECTED...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE. AFTER A LULL THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS CONTINUES INTO MON
EVENING AS THE UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE PIVOTS THROUGH. MILD WX
CONTINUES AS HIGHS COULD APPROACH THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60F.

TUE...
HIGH PRES BUILDS IN BRIEFLY FOR TUE. WARM TEMPS STILL EXPECTED AS
THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR REMAINS TO THE W. EXPECT HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

WED-WED NIGHT...
STILL UNCERTAINTY HERE...BUT WITH STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE
SOUTHEAST...A DEVELOPING WAVE OF LOW PRES MAY PASS JUST CLOSE
ENOUGH THE 40/70 BENCHMARK TO INITIATE TROWAL BASED PRECIP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SRN NEW ENGLAND. REGARDING THERMAL PROFILES...WHICH
ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE GIVEN BOTH OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
ARE ONLY RECENTLY CONVERGING ON THIS...TEMPS APPROACHING -6C TO
-10C AT H85 SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF WINTERY PRECIP IN THE
INTERIOR...BUT MAY BE TOO WARM ALONG THE COAST. STILL TOO
UNCERTAIN HERE TO MAKE ANY CALLS...BUT WORTH WATCHING GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL TRAVEL IMPLICATIONS.

THU-FRI...
DEPENDENT ON THE FINAL TIMING TRACK OF THE OFFSHORE SYSTEM...HIGH
PRES WOULD FOLLOW FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD...WITH COLDER DRIER AIR
BUILDING IN FROM THE NW.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

940 AM UPDATE...

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE. NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH 15Z UPDATE.

TODAY...VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...VFR WITH DIMINISHING WIND.

SATURDAY...VFR. INCREASING SW WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO
25-30 KT DEVELOPING IN THE COASTAL PLAIN.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
CLOUDS MOVE IN AT NIGHT...BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT IN LIGHT
SPRINKLES ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE. COULD BE LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE/FREEZING SPRINKLES NORTH AND WEST OF I-495.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. DIMINISHING WIND.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...CIGS/VSBYS LOWER TO MVFR/IFR IN RAIN/FOG.
SOUTH WIND AT 2000 FEET INCREASES TO 60-65 KNOTS ALONG THE COASTAL
PLAIN LATE NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING AND MAY GENERATE ANOTHER ROUND
OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN THAT AREA. CONDITIONS THEN IMPROVE TO VFR
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS.

A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AT NIGHT AND SHOULD
GENERATE BRIEF MVFR IN SHOWERS. WIND WILL SHIFT FROM SSW TO WSW WITH
THE WIND SHIFT.

TUESDAY...VFR. A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN EASTERN MASS/RI

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE THRU SATURDAY.

TODAY...WE CONVERTED GALE WARNINGS TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR
ALL WATERS. EXPECT WIND GUSTS TODAY WILL FALL JUST SHY OF GALES
WITH NW GUSTS INTO THE LOWER 30 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH SPEEDS DROPPING BELOW 20
KT LATE TONIGHT.

SATURDAY...EXPECT INCREASING SW WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AS DECENT
LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN STILL WARM SST...
GOOD MIXING OVER WATER SUPPORTS WIND GUSTS TO 30 KT WITH MARGINAL
GALES POSSIBLE BY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SAT NIGHT...SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST TO 35 KNOTS DURING
THE DAY AND THEN DIMINISH IN THE EVENING. SEAS 5-8 FEET WILL
DIMINISH IN THE EVENING.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...A WARM FRONT MOVES UP ACROSS THE WATERS. VSBYS
WILL LOWER TO 1-3 MILES IN RAIN AND FOG STARTING AROUND MIDNIGHT
CONTINUING INTO THE MORNING. STRONG SOUTH WINDS...ROUGHLY 60-65
KNOTS...AT 2000 FEET ALTITUDE WILL MOVE OVER THE WATERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. SOME OF THIS WIND MAY BE
DRAWN TO THE SURFACE IN HEAVIER BURSTS OF RAIN. AT THE
LEAST...SOUTH WINDS WILL BE ON THE HIGH END OF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS AT OR NEAR GALE. THIS WILL DRIVE SEAS TO 5-10
FEET ON THE EXPOSED WATERS.

TUESDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST NEAR SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS.
SEAS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH BUT REMAIN ABOVE 5 FEET ON THE EXPOSED
WATERS.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ230-
     232>237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ231-251-
     255-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-254.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK/KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...FRANK/KJC/DOODY
MARINE...KJC/DOODY



000
FXUS61 KBOX 211439
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
940 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BLUSTERY AND UNSEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS TODAY. TEMPERATURES
MODERATE SATURDAY WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS...THEN A SIGNIFICANT
WARM-UP IS IN STORE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A PERIOD OF RAIN. A COASTAL STORM MAY AFFECT THE
REGION SOMETIME DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BUT IT IS UNCERTAIN
HOW CLOSE IT WILL TRACK TO NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

940 AM UPDATE...

PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT MAY
JUST SEE A TOUCH OF DIURNAL CUMULUS ESPECIALLY IN THE INTERIOR.

UNSEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH 850 MB TEMPS -13/14C...
WHICH TRANSLATES TO MAXES UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 IN THE NW HIGHER
TERRAIN...TO MAINLY THE MIDDLE 30S COASTAL PLAIN.  WIND WILL BE A
FACTOR AS PRESSURE GRADIENT AND GOOD MIXING SUPPORTS NW WIND GUSTS
TO 25-35 MPH.  THIS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE TEENS TO
LOWER 20S FOR MOST OF THE DAY!  SO IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE JANUARY
THAN NOVEMBER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...
CENTER OF HIGH PRES MOVES TO THE MID ATLC COAST BUT RIDGE AXIS
BUILDS INTO NEW ENG WHICH WILL RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WIND AS PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. GIVEN VERY DRY
AIRMASS IT WILL BE A COLD NIGHT AS DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
DEVELOPS. MINS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE TEENS...EXCEPT LOWER 20S
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. LOW PROB FOR SOME SINGLE NUMBER MIN
TEMPS W MA AND SW NH.

SATURDAY...
HIGH PRES BUILDS S OF NEW ENG WITH SUNSHINE GIVING WAY TO
INCREASING AFTERNOON CLOUDS AS LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES FROM THE WEST. INCREASING SW FLOW BRINGS MILDER AIR
INTO SNE AS PRONOUNCED LOW AND MID LEVEL WARMING OCCURS. AFTER A
RATHER COLD START...TEMPS WILL RECOVER INTO THE MID 30S TO LOWER
40S. 40 KT LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS BY LATE DAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO
GUSTY SW WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COAST WHERE BETTER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
WITH THE ECMWF AND GFS OPERATIONAL RUNS CONTINUING TO SHOW
MODERATE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MID TERM...A GENERAL BLEND WILL BE
USED AS A BASELINE. ITS NOT UNTIL LATER ABOUT MID WEEK THAT THE
STRONGEST DIVERGENCE IN MODEL SOLUTIONS EVEN AMONG
ENSEMBLES/MEANS...SO CONFIDENCE THROUGH MON-TUE REMAINS RELATIVELY
HIGH WHILE CONFIDENCE BECOMES LOW FROM MID NEXT WEEK THROUGH THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY PERIOD.

THE ISSUE IS LIKELY THE SHIFTING PATTERN THROUGH THE
PERIOD...STARTING WITH BUILDING RIDGE SUN-MON AS PHASING NORTHERN
AND SOUTHERN STREAM WAVES DEVELOP INTO OCCLUDING SYSTEM AROUND THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS DEVELOPING TROF IS THEN EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
DEEPEN AND DIG INTO A SLOWER LONGWAVE TROF TO THE
W...SIMILAR...THOUGH NOT AS COLD AS THIS WEEK/S DEEP TROUGH BUT
WITH THE AXIS FURTHER TO THE W. THEREFORE...TIME-MEAN JET REMAINS
SOUTHWESTERLY AND WARMING UNTIL THE CORE CAN SLIDE TO THE E LATER
IN THE WEEK. AGREE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER...THAT THIS
SUGGEST THE NEAR NORMAL TO WARM WEATHER CONTINUES UNTIL A COOLING
TREND OCCURS LATER IN THE WEEK.

DETAILS...

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN EVENING...
SFC WARM FRONT WILL BE NOSING IN FROM THE W WHILE SHIFTING TO THE
N WITH TIME TOWARD 12Z SUN. NOTE MODEST MID LVL ISENTROPIC LIFT
WITH SOME MOISTURE SUGGESTING LOW END CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIP
ESPECIALLY N OF THE MA PIKE AND W OF I-495. TIMING WILL BE THE KEY
HERE...AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTER THAT IF THE CLOUDS BUILD IN
TOO QUICKLY TEMPS MAY REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING WHILE
ALLOWANCE FOR MORE COOLING SUGGESTS THAT SFC TEMPS MAY BE A FEW
DEGREES BELOW FREEZING. THEREFORE...MAY HAVE TO MONITOR FOR LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN...IF THE TEMPS FALL BACK INTO THE MID-UPPER 20S
LIGHT ICING IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT AGAIN TOTAL RAINFALL
WOULD BE LIGHT AND TEMPS MAY PRECLUDE ANY IMPACTS. WILL NEED TO
WATCH THIS AS WE APPROACH. OTHERWISE SUN...WARMING EXPECTED WITH
AREAS REACHING THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S BY LATE IN THE DAY IN SPITE
OF INCREASING CLOUDS. DWPTS ALSO RISE AS WELL.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...
OCCLUDING LOW PRES TO THE W WILL PUSH 60-65 KT LLJ THROUGH THE
REGION DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MON. THIS WILL BE
COINCIDENT WITH 1.0 INCH PWATS /ABOUT 2 STD DEVIATIONS FROM
NORMAL/. THEREFORE...EXPECT SOME WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WITH MODEST
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS AS K VALUES HOVER AROUND 30...SUGGESTING HEAVY
RAIN. THIS COULD ALSO YIELD SOME STRONG WINDS AND POSSIBLY EVEN A
FINE-LINE DEVELOPMENT WHICH WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. OVERALL
RAINFALL VALUES OF 0.5-1.0 INCHES EXPECTED...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE. AFTER A LULL THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS CONTINUES INTO MON
EVENING AS THE UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE PIVOTS THROUGH. MILD WX
CONTINUES AS HIGHS COULD APPROACH THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60F.

TUE...
HIGH PRES BUILDS IN BRIEFLY FOR TUE. WARM TEMPS STILL EXPECTED AS
THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR REMAINS TO THE W. EXPECT HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

WED-WED NIGHT...
STILL UNCERTAINTY HERE...BUT WITH STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE
SOUTHEAST...A DEVELOPING WAVE OF LOW PRES MAY PASS JUST CLOSE
ENOUGH THE 40/70 BENCHMARK TO INITIATE TROWAL BASED PRECIP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SRN NEW ENGLAND. REGARDING THERMAL PROFILES...WHICH
ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE GIVEN BOTH OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
ARE ONLY RECENTLY CONVERGING ON THIS...TEMPS APPROACHING -6C TO
-10C AT H85 SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF WINTERY PRECIP IN THE
INTERIOR...BUT MAY BE TOO WARM ALONG THE COAST. STILL TOO
UNCERTAIN HERE TO MAKE ANY CALLS...BUT WORTH WATCHING GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL TRAVEL IMPLICATIONS.

THU-FRI...
DEPENDENT ON THE FINAL TIMING TRACK OF THE OFFSHORE SYSTEM...HIGH
PRES WOULD FOLLOW FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD...WITH COLDER DRIER AIR
BUILDING IN FROM THE NW.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

940 AM UPDATE...

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE. NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH 15Z UPDATE.

TODAY...VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...VFR WITH DIMINISHING WIND.

SATURDAY...VFR. INCREASING SW WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO
25-30 KT DEVELOPING IN THE COASTAL PLAIN.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
CLOUDS MOVE IN AT NIGHT...BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT IN LIGHT
SPRINKLES ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE. COULD BE LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE/FREEZING SPRINKLES NORTH AND WEST OF I-495.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. DIMINISHING WIND.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...CIGS/VSBYS LOWER TO MVFR/IFR IN RAIN/FOG.
SOUTH WIND AT 2000 FEET INCREASES TO 60-65 KNOTS ALONG THE COASTAL
PLAIN LATE NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING AND MAY GENERATE ANOTHER ROUND
OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN THAT AREA. CONDITIONS THEN IMPROVE TO VFR
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS.

A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AT NIGHT AND SHOULD
GENERATE BRIEF MVFR IN SHOWERS. WIND WILL SHIFT FROM SSW TO WSW WITH
THE WIND SHIFT.

TUESDAY...VFR. A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN EASTERN MASS/RI

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE THRU SATURDAY.

TODAY...WE CONVERTED GALE WARNINGS TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR
ALL WATERS. EXPECT WIND GUSTS TODAY WILL FALL JUST SHY OF GALES
WITH NW GUSTS INTO THE LOWER 30 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH SPEEDS DROPPING BELOW 20
KT LATE TONIGHT.

SATURDAY...EXPECT INCREASING SW WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AS DECENT
LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN STILL WARM SST...
GOOD MIXING OVER WATER SUPPORTS WIND GUSTS TO 30 KT WITH MARGINAL
GALES POSSIBLE BY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SAT NIGHT...SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST TO 35 KNOTS DURING
THE DAY AND THEN DIMINISH IN THE EVENING. SEAS 5-8 FEET WILL
DIMINISH IN THE EVENING.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...A WARM FRONT MOVES UP ACROSS THE WATERS. VSBYS
WILL LOWER TO 1-3 MILES IN RAIN AND FOG STARTING AROUND MIDNIGHT
CONTINUING INTO THE MORNING. STRONG SOUTH WINDS...ROUGHLY 60-65
KNOTS...AT 2000 FEET ALTITUDE WILL MOVE OVER THE WATERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. SOME OF THIS WIND MAY BE
DRAWN TO THE SURFACE IN HEAVIER BURSTS OF RAIN. AT THE
LEAST...SOUTH WINDS WILL BE ON THE HIGH END OF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS AT OR NEAR GALE. THIS WILL DRIVE SEAS TO 5-10
FEET ON THE EXPOSED WATERS.

TUESDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST NEAR SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS.
SEAS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH BUT REMAIN ABOVE 5 FEET ON THE EXPOSED
WATERS.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ230-
     232>237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ231-251-
     255-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-254.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK/KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...FRANK/KJC/DOODY
MARINE...KJC/DOODY



000
FXUS61 KBOX 211439
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
940 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BLUSTERY AND UNSEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS TODAY. TEMPERATURES
MODERATE SATURDAY WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS...THEN A SIGNIFICANT
WARM-UP IS IN STORE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A PERIOD OF RAIN. A COASTAL STORM MAY AFFECT THE
REGION SOMETIME DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BUT IT IS UNCERTAIN
HOW CLOSE IT WILL TRACK TO NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

940 AM UPDATE...

PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT MAY
JUST SEE A TOUCH OF DIURNAL CUMULUS ESPECIALLY IN THE INTERIOR.

UNSEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH 850 MB TEMPS -13/14C...
WHICH TRANSLATES TO MAXES UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 IN THE NW HIGHER
TERRAIN...TO MAINLY THE MIDDLE 30S COASTAL PLAIN.  WIND WILL BE A
FACTOR AS PRESSURE GRADIENT AND GOOD MIXING SUPPORTS NW WIND GUSTS
TO 25-35 MPH.  THIS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE TEENS TO
LOWER 20S FOR MOST OF THE DAY!  SO IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE JANUARY
THAN NOVEMBER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...
CENTER OF HIGH PRES MOVES TO THE MID ATLC COAST BUT RIDGE AXIS
BUILDS INTO NEW ENG WHICH WILL RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WIND AS PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. GIVEN VERY DRY
AIRMASS IT WILL BE A COLD NIGHT AS DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
DEVELOPS. MINS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE TEENS...EXCEPT LOWER 20S
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. LOW PROB FOR SOME SINGLE NUMBER MIN
TEMPS W MA AND SW NH.

SATURDAY...
HIGH PRES BUILDS S OF NEW ENG WITH SUNSHINE GIVING WAY TO
INCREASING AFTERNOON CLOUDS AS LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES FROM THE WEST. INCREASING SW FLOW BRINGS MILDER AIR
INTO SNE AS PRONOUNCED LOW AND MID LEVEL WARMING OCCURS. AFTER A
RATHER COLD START...TEMPS WILL RECOVER INTO THE MID 30S TO LOWER
40S. 40 KT LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS BY LATE DAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO
GUSTY SW WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COAST WHERE BETTER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
WITH THE ECMWF AND GFS OPERATIONAL RUNS CONTINUING TO SHOW
MODERATE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MID TERM...A GENERAL BLEND WILL BE
USED AS A BASELINE. ITS NOT UNTIL LATER ABOUT MID WEEK THAT THE
STRONGEST DIVERGENCE IN MODEL SOLUTIONS EVEN AMONG
ENSEMBLES/MEANS...SO CONFIDENCE THROUGH MON-TUE REMAINS RELATIVELY
HIGH WHILE CONFIDENCE BECOMES LOW FROM MID NEXT WEEK THROUGH THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY PERIOD.

THE ISSUE IS LIKELY THE SHIFTING PATTERN THROUGH THE
PERIOD...STARTING WITH BUILDING RIDGE SUN-MON AS PHASING NORTHERN
AND SOUTHERN STREAM WAVES DEVELOP INTO OCCLUDING SYSTEM AROUND THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS DEVELOPING TROF IS THEN EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
DEEPEN AND DIG INTO A SLOWER LONGWAVE TROF TO THE
W...SIMILAR...THOUGH NOT AS COLD AS THIS WEEK/S DEEP TROUGH BUT
WITH THE AXIS FURTHER TO THE W. THEREFORE...TIME-MEAN JET REMAINS
SOUTHWESTERLY AND WARMING UNTIL THE CORE CAN SLIDE TO THE E LATER
IN THE WEEK. AGREE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER...THAT THIS
SUGGEST THE NEAR NORMAL TO WARM WEATHER CONTINUES UNTIL A COOLING
TREND OCCURS LATER IN THE WEEK.

DETAILS...

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN EVENING...
SFC WARM FRONT WILL BE NOSING IN FROM THE W WHILE SHIFTING TO THE
N WITH TIME TOWARD 12Z SUN. NOTE MODEST MID LVL ISENTROPIC LIFT
WITH SOME MOISTURE SUGGESTING LOW END CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIP
ESPECIALLY N OF THE MA PIKE AND W OF I-495. TIMING WILL BE THE KEY
HERE...AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTER THAT IF THE CLOUDS BUILD IN
TOO QUICKLY TEMPS MAY REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING WHILE
ALLOWANCE FOR MORE COOLING SUGGESTS THAT SFC TEMPS MAY BE A FEW
DEGREES BELOW FREEZING. THEREFORE...MAY HAVE TO MONITOR FOR LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN...IF THE TEMPS FALL BACK INTO THE MID-UPPER 20S
LIGHT ICING IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT AGAIN TOTAL RAINFALL
WOULD BE LIGHT AND TEMPS MAY PRECLUDE ANY IMPACTS. WILL NEED TO
WATCH THIS AS WE APPROACH. OTHERWISE SUN...WARMING EXPECTED WITH
AREAS REACHING THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S BY LATE IN THE DAY IN SPITE
OF INCREASING CLOUDS. DWPTS ALSO RISE AS WELL.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...
OCCLUDING LOW PRES TO THE W WILL PUSH 60-65 KT LLJ THROUGH THE
REGION DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MON. THIS WILL BE
COINCIDENT WITH 1.0 INCH PWATS /ABOUT 2 STD DEVIATIONS FROM
NORMAL/. THEREFORE...EXPECT SOME WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WITH MODEST
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS AS K VALUES HOVER AROUND 30...SUGGESTING HEAVY
RAIN. THIS COULD ALSO YIELD SOME STRONG WINDS AND POSSIBLY EVEN A
FINE-LINE DEVELOPMENT WHICH WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. OVERALL
RAINFALL VALUES OF 0.5-1.0 INCHES EXPECTED...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE. AFTER A LULL THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS CONTINUES INTO MON
EVENING AS THE UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE PIVOTS THROUGH. MILD WX
CONTINUES AS HIGHS COULD APPROACH THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60F.

TUE...
HIGH PRES BUILDS IN BRIEFLY FOR TUE. WARM TEMPS STILL EXPECTED AS
THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR REMAINS TO THE W. EXPECT HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

WED-WED NIGHT...
STILL UNCERTAINTY HERE...BUT WITH STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE
SOUTHEAST...A DEVELOPING WAVE OF LOW PRES MAY PASS JUST CLOSE
ENOUGH THE 40/70 BENCHMARK TO INITIATE TROWAL BASED PRECIP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SRN NEW ENGLAND. REGARDING THERMAL PROFILES...WHICH
ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE GIVEN BOTH OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
ARE ONLY RECENTLY CONVERGING ON THIS...TEMPS APPROACHING -6C TO
-10C AT H85 SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF WINTERY PRECIP IN THE
INTERIOR...BUT MAY BE TOO WARM ALONG THE COAST. STILL TOO
UNCERTAIN HERE TO MAKE ANY CALLS...BUT WORTH WATCHING GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL TRAVEL IMPLICATIONS.

THU-FRI...
DEPENDENT ON THE FINAL TIMING TRACK OF THE OFFSHORE SYSTEM...HIGH
PRES WOULD FOLLOW FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD...WITH COLDER DRIER AIR
BUILDING IN FROM THE NW.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

940 AM UPDATE...

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE. NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH 15Z UPDATE.

TODAY...VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...VFR WITH DIMINISHING WIND.

SATURDAY...VFR. INCREASING SW WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO
25-30 KT DEVELOPING IN THE COASTAL PLAIN.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
CLOUDS MOVE IN AT NIGHT...BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT IN LIGHT
SPRINKLES ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE. COULD BE LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE/FREEZING SPRINKLES NORTH AND WEST OF I-495.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. DIMINISHING WIND.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...CIGS/VSBYS LOWER TO MVFR/IFR IN RAIN/FOG.
SOUTH WIND AT 2000 FEET INCREASES TO 60-65 KNOTS ALONG THE COASTAL
PLAIN LATE NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING AND MAY GENERATE ANOTHER ROUND
OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN THAT AREA. CONDITIONS THEN IMPROVE TO VFR
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS.

A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AT NIGHT AND SHOULD
GENERATE BRIEF MVFR IN SHOWERS. WIND WILL SHIFT FROM SSW TO WSW WITH
THE WIND SHIFT.

TUESDAY...VFR. A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN EASTERN MASS/RI

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE THRU SATURDAY.

TODAY...WE CONVERTED GALE WARNINGS TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR
ALL WATERS. EXPECT WIND GUSTS TODAY WILL FALL JUST SHY OF GALES
WITH NW GUSTS INTO THE LOWER 30 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH SPEEDS DROPPING BELOW 20
KT LATE TONIGHT.

SATURDAY...EXPECT INCREASING SW WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AS DECENT
LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN STILL WARM SST...
GOOD MIXING OVER WATER SUPPORTS WIND GUSTS TO 30 KT WITH MARGINAL
GALES POSSIBLE BY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SAT NIGHT...SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST TO 35 KNOTS DURING
THE DAY AND THEN DIMINISH IN THE EVENING. SEAS 5-8 FEET WILL
DIMINISH IN THE EVENING.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...A WARM FRONT MOVES UP ACROSS THE WATERS. VSBYS
WILL LOWER TO 1-3 MILES IN RAIN AND FOG STARTING AROUND MIDNIGHT
CONTINUING INTO THE MORNING. STRONG SOUTH WINDS...ROUGHLY 60-65
KNOTS...AT 2000 FEET ALTITUDE WILL MOVE OVER THE WATERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. SOME OF THIS WIND MAY BE
DRAWN TO THE SURFACE IN HEAVIER BURSTS OF RAIN. AT THE
LEAST...SOUTH WINDS WILL BE ON THE HIGH END OF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS AT OR NEAR GALE. THIS WILL DRIVE SEAS TO 5-10
FEET ON THE EXPOSED WATERS.

TUESDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST NEAR SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS.
SEAS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH BUT REMAIN ABOVE 5 FEET ON THE EXPOSED
WATERS.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ230-
     232>237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ231-251-
     255-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-254.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK/KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...FRANK/KJC/DOODY
MARINE...KJC/DOODY



000
FXUS61 KBOX 211439
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
940 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BLUSTERY AND UNSEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS TODAY. TEMPERATURES
MODERATE SATURDAY WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS...THEN A SIGNIFICANT
WARM-UP IS IN STORE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A PERIOD OF RAIN. A COASTAL STORM MAY AFFECT THE
REGION SOMETIME DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BUT IT IS UNCERTAIN
HOW CLOSE IT WILL TRACK TO NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

940 AM UPDATE...

PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT MAY
JUST SEE A TOUCH OF DIURNAL CUMULUS ESPECIALLY IN THE INTERIOR.

UNSEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH 850 MB TEMPS -13/14C...
WHICH TRANSLATES TO MAXES UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 IN THE NW HIGHER
TERRAIN...TO MAINLY THE MIDDLE 30S COASTAL PLAIN.  WIND WILL BE A
FACTOR AS PRESSURE GRADIENT AND GOOD MIXING SUPPORTS NW WIND GUSTS
TO 25-35 MPH.  THIS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE TEENS TO
LOWER 20S FOR MOST OF THE DAY!  SO IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE JANUARY
THAN NOVEMBER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...
CENTER OF HIGH PRES MOVES TO THE MID ATLC COAST BUT RIDGE AXIS
BUILDS INTO NEW ENG WHICH WILL RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WIND AS PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. GIVEN VERY DRY
AIRMASS IT WILL BE A COLD NIGHT AS DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
DEVELOPS. MINS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE TEENS...EXCEPT LOWER 20S
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. LOW PROB FOR SOME SINGLE NUMBER MIN
TEMPS W MA AND SW NH.

SATURDAY...
HIGH PRES BUILDS S OF NEW ENG WITH SUNSHINE GIVING WAY TO
INCREASING AFTERNOON CLOUDS AS LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES FROM THE WEST. INCREASING SW FLOW BRINGS MILDER AIR
INTO SNE AS PRONOUNCED LOW AND MID LEVEL WARMING OCCURS. AFTER A
RATHER COLD START...TEMPS WILL RECOVER INTO THE MID 30S TO LOWER
40S. 40 KT LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS BY LATE DAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO
GUSTY SW WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COAST WHERE BETTER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
WITH THE ECMWF AND GFS OPERATIONAL RUNS CONTINUING TO SHOW
MODERATE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MID TERM...A GENERAL BLEND WILL BE
USED AS A BASELINE. ITS NOT UNTIL LATER ABOUT MID WEEK THAT THE
STRONGEST DIVERGENCE IN MODEL SOLUTIONS EVEN AMONG
ENSEMBLES/MEANS...SO CONFIDENCE THROUGH MON-TUE REMAINS RELATIVELY
HIGH WHILE CONFIDENCE BECOMES LOW FROM MID NEXT WEEK THROUGH THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY PERIOD.

THE ISSUE IS LIKELY THE SHIFTING PATTERN THROUGH THE
PERIOD...STARTING WITH BUILDING RIDGE SUN-MON AS PHASING NORTHERN
AND SOUTHERN STREAM WAVES DEVELOP INTO OCCLUDING SYSTEM AROUND THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS DEVELOPING TROF IS THEN EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
DEEPEN AND DIG INTO A SLOWER LONGWAVE TROF TO THE
W...SIMILAR...THOUGH NOT AS COLD AS THIS WEEK/S DEEP TROUGH BUT
WITH THE AXIS FURTHER TO THE W. THEREFORE...TIME-MEAN JET REMAINS
SOUTHWESTERLY AND WARMING UNTIL THE CORE CAN SLIDE TO THE E LATER
IN THE WEEK. AGREE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER...THAT THIS
SUGGEST THE NEAR NORMAL TO WARM WEATHER CONTINUES UNTIL A COOLING
TREND OCCURS LATER IN THE WEEK.

DETAILS...

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN EVENING...
SFC WARM FRONT WILL BE NOSING IN FROM THE W WHILE SHIFTING TO THE
N WITH TIME TOWARD 12Z SUN. NOTE MODEST MID LVL ISENTROPIC LIFT
WITH SOME MOISTURE SUGGESTING LOW END CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIP
ESPECIALLY N OF THE MA PIKE AND W OF I-495. TIMING WILL BE THE KEY
HERE...AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTER THAT IF THE CLOUDS BUILD IN
TOO QUICKLY TEMPS MAY REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING WHILE
ALLOWANCE FOR MORE COOLING SUGGESTS THAT SFC TEMPS MAY BE A FEW
DEGREES BELOW FREEZING. THEREFORE...MAY HAVE TO MONITOR FOR LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN...IF THE TEMPS FALL BACK INTO THE MID-UPPER 20S
LIGHT ICING IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT AGAIN TOTAL RAINFALL
WOULD BE LIGHT AND TEMPS MAY PRECLUDE ANY IMPACTS. WILL NEED TO
WATCH THIS AS WE APPROACH. OTHERWISE SUN...WARMING EXPECTED WITH
AREAS REACHING THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S BY LATE IN THE DAY IN SPITE
OF INCREASING CLOUDS. DWPTS ALSO RISE AS WELL.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...
OCCLUDING LOW PRES TO THE W WILL PUSH 60-65 KT LLJ THROUGH THE
REGION DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MON. THIS WILL BE
COINCIDENT WITH 1.0 INCH PWATS /ABOUT 2 STD DEVIATIONS FROM
NORMAL/. THEREFORE...EXPECT SOME WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WITH MODEST
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS AS K VALUES HOVER AROUND 30...SUGGESTING HEAVY
RAIN. THIS COULD ALSO YIELD SOME STRONG WINDS AND POSSIBLY EVEN A
FINE-LINE DEVELOPMENT WHICH WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. OVERALL
RAINFALL VALUES OF 0.5-1.0 INCHES EXPECTED...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE. AFTER A LULL THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS CONTINUES INTO MON
EVENING AS THE UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE PIVOTS THROUGH. MILD WX
CONTINUES AS HIGHS COULD APPROACH THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60F.

TUE...
HIGH PRES BUILDS IN BRIEFLY FOR TUE. WARM TEMPS STILL EXPECTED AS
THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR REMAINS TO THE W. EXPECT HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

WED-WED NIGHT...
STILL UNCERTAINTY HERE...BUT WITH STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE
SOUTHEAST...A DEVELOPING WAVE OF LOW PRES MAY PASS JUST CLOSE
ENOUGH THE 40/70 BENCHMARK TO INITIATE TROWAL BASED PRECIP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SRN NEW ENGLAND. REGARDING THERMAL PROFILES...WHICH
ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE GIVEN BOTH OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
ARE ONLY RECENTLY CONVERGING ON THIS...TEMPS APPROACHING -6C TO
-10C AT H85 SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF WINTERY PRECIP IN THE
INTERIOR...BUT MAY BE TOO WARM ALONG THE COAST. STILL TOO
UNCERTAIN HERE TO MAKE ANY CALLS...BUT WORTH WATCHING GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL TRAVEL IMPLICATIONS.

THU-FRI...
DEPENDENT ON THE FINAL TIMING TRACK OF THE OFFSHORE SYSTEM...HIGH
PRES WOULD FOLLOW FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD...WITH COLDER DRIER AIR
BUILDING IN FROM THE NW.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

940 AM UPDATE...

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE. NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH 15Z UPDATE.

TODAY...VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...VFR WITH DIMINISHING WIND.

SATURDAY...VFR. INCREASING SW WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO
25-30 KT DEVELOPING IN THE COASTAL PLAIN.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
CLOUDS MOVE IN AT NIGHT...BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT IN LIGHT
SPRINKLES ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE. COULD BE LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE/FREEZING SPRINKLES NORTH AND WEST OF I-495.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. DIMINISHING WIND.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...CIGS/VSBYS LOWER TO MVFR/IFR IN RAIN/FOG.
SOUTH WIND AT 2000 FEET INCREASES TO 60-65 KNOTS ALONG THE COASTAL
PLAIN LATE NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING AND MAY GENERATE ANOTHER ROUND
OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN THAT AREA. CONDITIONS THEN IMPROVE TO VFR
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS.

A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AT NIGHT AND SHOULD
GENERATE BRIEF MVFR IN SHOWERS. WIND WILL SHIFT FROM SSW TO WSW WITH
THE WIND SHIFT.

TUESDAY...VFR. A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN EASTERN MASS/RI

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE THRU SATURDAY.

TODAY...WE CONVERTED GALE WARNINGS TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR
ALL WATERS. EXPECT WIND GUSTS TODAY WILL FALL JUST SHY OF GALES
WITH NW GUSTS INTO THE LOWER 30 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH SPEEDS DROPPING BELOW 20
KT LATE TONIGHT.

SATURDAY...EXPECT INCREASING SW WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AS DECENT
LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN STILL WARM SST...
GOOD MIXING OVER WATER SUPPORTS WIND GUSTS TO 30 KT WITH MARGINAL
GALES POSSIBLE BY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SAT NIGHT...SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST TO 35 KNOTS DURING
THE DAY AND THEN DIMINISH IN THE EVENING. SEAS 5-8 FEET WILL
DIMINISH IN THE EVENING.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...A WARM FRONT MOVES UP ACROSS THE WATERS. VSBYS
WILL LOWER TO 1-3 MILES IN RAIN AND FOG STARTING AROUND MIDNIGHT
CONTINUING INTO THE MORNING. STRONG SOUTH WINDS...ROUGHLY 60-65
KNOTS...AT 2000 FEET ALTITUDE WILL MOVE OVER THE WATERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. SOME OF THIS WIND MAY BE
DRAWN TO THE SURFACE IN HEAVIER BURSTS OF RAIN. AT THE
LEAST...SOUTH WINDS WILL BE ON THE HIGH END OF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS AT OR NEAR GALE. THIS WILL DRIVE SEAS TO 5-10
FEET ON THE EXPOSED WATERS.

TUESDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST NEAR SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS.
SEAS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH BUT REMAIN ABOVE 5 FEET ON THE EXPOSED
WATERS.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ230-
     232>237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ231-251-
     255-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-254.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK/KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...FRANK/KJC/DOODY
MARINE...KJC/DOODY



000
FXUS61 KOKX 211438
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
938 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT AND SHIFTS
OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. A WEAK WARM FRONT THEN PASSES NEARBY
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ANOTHER WARM FRONT APPROACHES AND
LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN STALLS OFFSHORE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD...DRY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST WITH SFC DEWPOINTS MAINLY
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS. NW WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 15-20
MPH WITH 20-30 MPH GUSTS...RESULTING IN WIND CHILLS IN THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WINDS SUBSIDE TONIGHT AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE NEARS THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. CLEAR WITH LOW TEMPS 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

A RETURN WSW-SW FLOW ON SATURDAY WILL HELP TEMPERATURES
MODERATE...BUT HIGHS WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL LEVELS. SUN
FILTERED THROUGH SOME CIRRUS IN SPOTS IN THE MORNING...THEN SOME
LOWER CLOUDS ENTERING DURING THE AFTERNOON.

CLOUDS THICKEN MORE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAK WARM FRONT PASSING
THROUGH. BETTER LIFT OVERALL TO THE NORTH...AND ENOUGH MOISTURE TO
MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHC POPS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CITY. AN ELEVATED
WARM LAYER WILL HAVE ANY PCPN REACHING THE GROUND AS RAIN. THERE IS
HOWEVER A CHANCE THAT IT COULD BE FREEZING RAIN ACROSS MAINLY THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. EXPECTING TEMPS TO
RISE A LITTLE FOR THE MOST PART OVERNIGHT WITH THE WARM ADVECTION
AND INCREASING CLOUDS...BUT TEMPS ARE STILL FORECAST TO BE AT OR
CLOSE TO FREEZING LATE AT NIGHT FOR THESE AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES NORTH OF THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
WITH UPPER RIDGING QUICKLY BUILDING OVERHEAD DURING THE DAY ON
IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW OVER
THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. ANY LIGHT PRECIP THAT DEVELOPS EARLY ENDS
QUICKLY WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AND SEASONABLE DAY.

A WARM FRONT THEN APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING
WIDESPREAD RAIN. MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT IN THE TIMING OF
THE BEST LIFT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z MONDAY.
THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY MORNING TAKING THE
BEST LIFT AND DEEPEST MOISTURE NORTH AND EAST. SOME LINGERING LOW
CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER THE WARM FRONT PASSES...BUT EXPECT ENOUGH
SUNSHINE IN COMBINATION WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW TO WARM
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 60S...WARMEST IN THE NEW YORK CITY METRO. A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. BEHIND THE FRONT
ON TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL IN THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S.

THE FRONT STALLS OFFSHORE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE PROGRESSION
OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWS DOWN DUE TO DEEP RIDGING OVER THE
EASTERN ATLANTIC. THIS PATTERN SETS UP A BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG THE
EAST COAST. 00Z MODELS DEPICT A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
ALONG THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE AS ENERGY ROTATES AROUND THE BASE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
EAST OR OVER THE 40/70 BENCHMARK ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AS EXPECTED SIX DAYS OUT...THERE ARE TIMING AND INTENSITY
DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS. THE 00Z ECMWF IS THE SLOWEST AND
STRONGEST AMONGST THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS. HOWEVER...IT SHOULD BE
NOTED SEVERAL MEMBERS OF THE 00Z GEFS SHOW A SLOWER AND STRONGER LOW
CLOSER TO THE COAST. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FUTURE MODEL TRENDS AS
THIS WILL BE OCCURRING DURING THE BUSIEST TRAVEL DAY OF THE YEAR.
UNCERTAINTIES EXIST IN HOW FAR WEST THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL
REACH...AND THE EXTENT OF COLD AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS THAT WILL BE
AVAILABLE. SYSTEM MOVES NORTH AND EAST ON THURSDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

NW WINDS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. STRONGEST GUSTS DURING THE
DAY...THEN A DRAMATIC DECREASE TONIGHT.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTIONS WILL BE NEAR 310 MAGNETIC
TODAY...AND MAY FLUCTUATE ACROSS THE LINE THROUGHOUT THE AFTN/EVE.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTIONS WILL BE NEAR 310 MAGNETIC
TODAY...AND MAY FLUCTUATE ACROSS THE LINE THROUGHOUT THE AFTN/EVE.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTIONS WILL BE NEAR OR RIGHT ALONG
310 MAGNETIC TODAY. COULD REMAIN JUST LEFT OR ON 310...BUT MAY
FLUCTUATE ACROSS THE LINE THROUGHOUT THE AFTN/EVE.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS WELL INTO THE 20S TODAY.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SAT THROUGH TUE...
.SAT-SAT NIGHT...VFR. SW WINDS 10-15 GUSTS UP TO 20 KT DURING THE DAY.
.SUN...MAINLY VFR.
.SUN NIGHT-MON...MVFR/IFR. POSSIBLY SUB-IFR. RA AND FG WITH LLWS
POSSIBLE.
.TUE...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A FEW GUSTS TO 35 KT ARE POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN WATERS THIS
MORNING...OTHRWISE...SCA CONDS ON TAP FOR TODAY THROUGH TODAY FOR
ALL WATERS...WITH SCA CONDS CONTINUING INTO A PORTION OF TONIGHT
FOR THE OCEAN WATERS/EASTERN SOUND/EASTERN BAYS. LOOKS LIKE
ANOTHER SCA COULD BE NEEDED FOR THESE SAME AREAS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS A WSW FLOW INCREASES.

SCA WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AND THEN AGAIN ON MONDAY
WITH AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. GALE
FORCE WINDS COULD OCCUR ON MONDAY AS WELL. THE FRONT MOVES EAST OF
THE WATERS ON TUESDAY...BUT WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN AT SCA
LEVELS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE COMBINATION OF FREQUENT GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH...RH VALUES
DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 PERCENT...AND 4 DAYS
WITHOUT RAINFALL WILL PRESENT AN ENHANCED THREAT FOR BRUSH FIRE
SPREAD IF IGNITION OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY ON THE
COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN AMOUNTS THROUGH SUNDAY. RAIN IS EXPECTED SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH NO HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ335-
     338-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-
     340-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/DS
NEAR TERM...JC/MPS
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...JC/DS
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JC/DS









000
FXUS61 KOKX 211438
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
938 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT AND SHIFTS
OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. A WEAK WARM FRONT THEN PASSES NEARBY
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ANOTHER WARM FRONT APPROACHES AND
LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN STALLS OFFSHORE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD...DRY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST WITH SFC DEWPOINTS MAINLY
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS. NW WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 15-20
MPH WITH 20-30 MPH GUSTS...RESULTING IN WIND CHILLS IN THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WINDS SUBSIDE TONIGHT AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE NEARS THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. CLEAR WITH LOW TEMPS 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

A RETURN WSW-SW FLOW ON SATURDAY WILL HELP TEMPERATURES
MODERATE...BUT HIGHS WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL LEVELS. SUN
FILTERED THROUGH SOME CIRRUS IN SPOTS IN THE MORNING...THEN SOME
LOWER CLOUDS ENTERING DURING THE AFTERNOON.

CLOUDS THICKEN MORE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAK WARM FRONT PASSING
THROUGH. BETTER LIFT OVERALL TO THE NORTH...AND ENOUGH MOISTURE TO
MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHC POPS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CITY. AN ELEVATED
WARM LAYER WILL HAVE ANY PCPN REACHING THE GROUND AS RAIN. THERE IS
HOWEVER A CHANCE THAT IT COULD BE FREEZING RAIN ACROSS MAINLY THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. EXPECTING TEMPS TO
RISE A LITTLE FOR THE MOST PART OVERNIGHT WITH THE WARM ADVECTION
AND INCREASING CLOUDS...BUT TEMPS ARE STILL FORECAST TO BE AT OR
CLOSE TO FREEZING LATE AT NIGHT FOR THESE AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES NORTH OF THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
WITH UPPER RIDGING QUICKLY BUILDING OVERHEAD DURING THE DAY ON
IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW OVER
THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. ANY LIGHT PRECIP THAT DEVELOPS EARLY ENDS
QUICKLY WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AND SEASONABLE DAY.

A WARM FRONT THEN APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING
WIDESPREAD RAIN. MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT IN THE TIMING OF
THE BEST LIFT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z MONDAY.
THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY MORNING TAKING THE
BEST LIFT AND DEEPEST MOISTURE NORTH AND EAST. SOME LINGERING LOW
CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER THE WARM FRONT PASSES...BUT EXPECT ENOUGH
SUNSHINE IN COMBINATION WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW TO WARM
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 60S...WARMEST IN THE NEW YORK CITY METRO. A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. BEHIND THE FRONT
ON TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL IN THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S.

THE FRONT STALLS OFFSHORE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE PROGRESSION
OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWS DOWN DUE TO DEEP RIDGING OVER THE
EASTERN ATLANTIC. THIS PATTERN SETS UP A BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG THE
EAST COAST. 00Z MODELS DEPICT A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
ALONG THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE AS ENERGY ROTATES AROUND THE BASE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
EAST OR OVER THE 40/70 BENCHMARK ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AS EXPECTED SIX DAYS OUT...THERE ARE TIMING AND INTENSITY
DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS. THE 00Z ECMWF IS THE SLOWEST AND
STRONGEST AMONGST THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS. HOWEVER...IT SHOULD BE
NOTED SEVERAL MEMBERS OF THE 00Z GEFS SHOW A SLOWER AND STRONGER LOW
CLOSER TO THE COAST. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FUTURE MODEL TRENDS AS
THIS WILL BE OCCURRING DURING THE BUSIEST TRAVEL DAY OF THE YEAR.
UNCERTAINTIES EXIST IN HOW FAR WEST THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL
REACH...AND THE EXTENT OF COLD AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS THAT WILL BE
AVAILABLE. SYSTEM MOVES NORTH AND EAST ON THURSDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

NW WINDS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. STRONGEST GUSTS DURING THE
DAY...THEN A DRAMATIC DECREASE TONIGHT.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTIONS WILL BE NEAR 310 MAGNETIC
TODAY...AND MAY FLUCTUATE ACROSS THE LINE THROUGHOUT THE AFTN/EVE.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTIONS WILL BE NEAR 310 MAGNETIC
TODAY...AND MAY FLUCTUATE ACROSS THE LINE THROUGHOUT THE AFTN/EVE.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTIONS WILL BE NEAR OR RIGHT ALONG
310 MAGNETIC TODAY. COULD REMAIN JUST LEFT OR ON 310...BUT MAY
FLUCTUATE ACROSS THE LINE THROUGHOUT THE AFTN/EVE.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS WELL INTO THE 20S TODAY.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SAT THROUGH TUE...
.SAT-SAT NIGHT...VFR. SW WINDS 10-15 GUSTS UP TO 20 KT DURING THE DAY.
.SUN...MAINLY VFR.
.SUN NIGHT-MON...MVFR/IFR. POSSIBLY SUB-IFR. RA AND FG WITH LLWS
POSSIBLE.
.TUE...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A FEW GUSTS TO 35 KT ARE POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN WATERS THIS
MORNING...OTHRWISE...SCA CONDS ON TAP FOR TODAY THROUGH TODAY FOR
ALL WATERS...WITH SCA CONDS CONTINUING INTO A PORTION OF TONIGHT
FOR THE OCEAN WATERS/EASTERN SOUND/EASTERN BAYS. LOOKS LIKE
ANOTHER SCA COULD BE NEEDED FOR THESE SAME AREAS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS A WSW FLOW INCREASES.

SCA WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AND THEN AGAIN ON MONDAY
WITH AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. GALE
FORCE WINDS COULD OCCUR ON MONDAY AS WELL. THE FRONT MOVES EAST OF
THE WATERS ON TUESDAY...BUT WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN AT SCA
LEVELS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE COMBINATION OF FREQUENT GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH...RH VALUES
DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 PERCENT...AND 4 DAYS
WITHOUT RAINFALL WILL PRESENT AN ENHANCED THREAT FOR BRUSH FIRE
SPREAD IF IGNITION OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY ON THE
COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN AMOUNTS THROUGH SUNDAY. RAIN IS EXPECTED SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH NO HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ335-
     338-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-
     340-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/DS
NEAR TERM...JC/MPS
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...JC/DS
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JC/DS









000
FXUS61 KOKX 211438
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
938 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT AND SHIFTS
OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. A WEAK WARM FRONT THEN PASSES NEARBY
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ANOTHER WARM FRONT APPROACHES AND
LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN STALLS OFFSHORE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD...DRY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST WITH SFC DEWPOINTS MAINLY
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS. NW WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 15-20
MPH WITH 20-30 MPH GUSTS...RESULTING IN WIND CHILLS IN THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WINDS SUBSIDE TONIGHT AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE NEARS THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. CLEAR WITH LOW TEMPS 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

A RETURN WSW-SW FLOW ON SATURDAY WILL HELP TEMPERATURES
MODERATE...BUT HIGHS WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL LEVELS. SUN
FILTERED THROUGH SOME CIRRUS IN SPOTS IN THE MORNING...THEN SOME
LOWER CLOUDS ENTERING DURING THE AFTERNOON.

CLOUDS THICKEN MORE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAK WARM FRONT PASSING
THROUGH. BETTER LIFT OVERALL TO THE NORTH...AND ENOUGH MOISTURE TO
MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHC POPS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CITY. AN ELEVATED
WARM LAYER WILL HAVE ANY PCPN REACHING THE GROUND AS RAIN. THERE IS
HOWEVER A CHANCE THAT IT COULD BE FREEZING RAIN ACROSS MAINLY THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. EXPECTING TEMPS TO
RISE A LITTLE FOR THE MOST PART OVERNIGHT WITH THE WARM ADVECTION
AND INCREASING CLOUDS...BUT TEMPS ARE STILL FORECAST TO BE AT OR
CLOSE TO FREEZING LATE AT NIGHT FOR THESE AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES NORTH OF THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
WITH UPPER RIDGING QUICKLY BUILDING OVERHEAD DURING THE DAY ON
IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW OVER
THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. ANY LIGHT PRECIP THAT DEVELOPS EARLY ENDS
QUICKLY WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AND SEASONABLE DAY.

A WARM FRONT THEN APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING
WIDESPREAD RAIN. MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT IN THE TIMING OF
THE BEST LIFT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z MONDAY.
THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY MORNING TAKING THE
BEST LIFT AND DEEPEST MOISTURE NORTH AND EAST. SOME LINGERING LOW
CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER THE WARM FRONT PASSES...BUT EXPECT ENOUGH
SUNSHINE IN COMBINATION WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW TO WARM
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 60S...WARMEST IN THE NEW YORK CITY METRO. A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. BEHIND THE FRONT
ON TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL IN THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S.

THE FRONT STALLS OFFSHORE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE PROGRESSION
OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWS DOWN DUE TO DEEP RIDGING OVER THE
EASTERN ATLANTIC. THIS PATTERN SETS UP A BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG THE
EAST COAST. 00Z MODELS DEPICT A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
ALONG THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE AS ENERGY ROTATES AROUND THE BASE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
EAST OR OVER THE 40/70 BENCHMARK ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AS EXPECTED SIX DAYS OUT...THERE ARE TIMING AND INTENSITY
DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS. THE 00Z ECMWF IS THE SLOWEST AND
STRONGEST AMONGST THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS. HOWEVER...IT SHOULD BE
NOTED SEVERAL MEMBERS OF THE 00Z GEFS SHOW A SLOWER AND STRONGER LOW
CLOSER TO THE COAST. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FUTURE MODEL TRENDS AS
THIS WILL BE OCCURRING DURING THE BUSIEST TRAVEL DAY OF THE YEAR.
UNCERTAINTIES EXIST IN HOW FAR WEST THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL
REACH...AND THE EXTENT OF COLD AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS THAT WILL BE
AVAILABLE. SYSTEM MOVES NORTH AND EAST ON THURSDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

NW WINDS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. STRONGEST GUSTS DURING THE
DAY...THEN A DRAMATIC DECREASE TONIGHT.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTIONS WILL BE NEAR 310 MAGNETIC
TODAY...AND MAY FLUCTUATE ACROSS THE LINE THROUGHOUT THE AFTN/EVE.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTIONS WILL BE NEAR 310 MAGNETIC
TODAY...AND MAY FLUCTUATE ACROSS THE LINE THROUGHOUT THE AFTN/EVE.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTIONS WILL BE NEAR OR RIGHT ALONG
310 MAGNETIC TODAY. COULD REMAIN JUST LEFT OR ON 310...BUT MAY
FLUCTUATE ACROSS THE LINE THROUGHOUT THE AFTN/EVE.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS WELL INTO THE 20S TODAY.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SAT THROUGH TUE...
.SAT-SAT NIGHT...VFR. SW WINDS 10-15 GUSTS UP TO 20 KT DURING THE DAY.
.SUN...MAINLY VFR.
.SUN NIGHT-MON...MVFR/IFR. POSSIBLY SUB-IFR. RA AND FG WITH LLWS
POSSIBLE.
.TUE...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A FEW GUSTS TO 35 KT ARE POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN WATERS THIS
MORNING...OTHRWISE...SCA CONDS ON TAP FOR TODAY THROUGH TODAY FOR
ALL WATERS...WITH SCA CONDS CONTINUING INTO A PORTION OF TONIGHT
FOR THE OCEAN WATERS/EASTERN SOUND/EASTERN BAYS. LOOKS LIKE
ANOTHER SCA COULD BE NEEDED FOR THESE SAME AREAS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS A WSW FLOW INCREASES.

SCA WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AND THEN AGAIN ON MONDAY
WITH AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. GALE
FORCE WINDS COULD OCCUR ON MONDAY AS WELL. THE FRONT MOVES EAST OF
THE WATERS ON TUESDAY...BUT WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN AT SCA
LEVELS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE COMBINATION OF FREQUENT GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH...RH VALUES
DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 PERCENT...AND 4 DAYS
WITHOUT RAINFALL WILL PRESENT AN ENHANCED THREAT FOR BRUSH FIRE
SPREAD IF IGNITION OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY ON THE
COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN AMOUNTS THROUGH SUNDAY. RAIN IS EXPECTED SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH NO HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ335-
     338-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-
     340-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/DS
NEAR TERM...JC/MPS
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...JC/DS
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JC/DS









000
FXUS61 KOKX 211438
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
938 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT AND SHIFTS
OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. A WEAK WARM FRONT THEN PASSES NEARBY
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ANOTHER WARM FRONT APPROACHES AND
LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN STALLS OFFSHORE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD...DRY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST WITH SFC DEWPOINTS MAINLY
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS. NW WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 15-20
MPH WITH 20-30 MPH GUSTS...RESULTING IN WIND CHILLS IN THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WINDS SUBSIDE TONIGHT AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE NEARS THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. CLEAR WITH LOW TEMPS 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

A RETURN WSW-SW FLOW ON SATURDAY WILL HELP TEMPERATURES
MODERATE...BUT HIGHS WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL LEVELS. SUN
FILTERED THROUGH SOME CIRRUS IN SPOTS IN THE MORNING...THEN SOME
LOWER CLOUDS ENTERING DURING THE AFTERNOON.

CLOUDS THICKEN MORE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAK WARM FRONT PASSING
THROUGH. BETTER LIFT OVERALL TO THE NORTH...AND ENOUGH MOISTURE TO
MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHC POPS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CITY. AN ELEVATED
WARM LAYER WILL HAVE ANY PCPN REACHING THE GROUND AS RAIN. THERE IS
HOWEVER A CHANCE THAT IT COULD BE FREEZING RAIN ACROSS MAINLY THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. EXPECTING TEMPS TO
RISE A LITTLE FOR THE MOST PART OVERNIGHT WITH THE WARM ADVECTION
AND INCREASING CLOUDS...BUT TEMPS ARE STILL FORECAST TO BE AT OR
CLOSE TO FREEZING LATE AT NIGHT FOR THESE AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES NORTH OF THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
WITH UPPER RIDGING QUICKLY BUILDING OVERHEAD DURING THE DAY ON
IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW OVER
THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. ANY LIGHT PRECIP THAT DEVELOPS EARLY ENDS
QUICKLY WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AND SEASONABLE DAY.

A WARM FRONT THEN APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING
WIDESPREAD RAIN. MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT IN THE TIMING OF
THE BEST LIFT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z MONDAY.
THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY MORNING TAKING THE
BEST LIFT AND DEEPEST MOISTURE NORTH AND EAST. SOME LINGERING LOW
CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER THE WARM FRONT PASSES...BUT EXPECT ENOUGH
SUNSHINE IN COMBINATION WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW TO WARM
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 60S...WARMEST IN THE NEW YORK CITY METRO. A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. BEHIND THE FRONT
ON TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL IN THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S.

THE FRONT STALLS OFFSHORE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE PROGRESSION
OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWS DOWN DUE TO DEEP RIDGING OVER THE
EASTERN ATLANTIC. THIS PATTERN SETS UP A BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG THE
EAST COAST. 00Z MODELS DEPICT A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
ALONG THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE AS ENERGY ROTATES AROUND THE BASE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
EAST OR OVER THE 40/70 BENCHMARK ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AS EXPECTED SIX DAYS OUT...THERE ARE TIMING AND INTENSITY
DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS. THE 00Z ECMWF IS THE SLOWEST AND
STRONGEST AMONGST THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS. HOWEVER...IT SHOULD BE
NOTED SEVERAL MEMBERS OF THE 00Z GEFS SHOW A SLOWER AND STRONGER LOW
CLOSER TO THE COAST. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FUTURE MODEL TRENDS AS
THIS WILL BE OCCURRING DURING THE BUSIEST TRAVEL DAY OF THE YEAR.
UNCERTAINTIES EXIST IN HOW FAR WEST THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL
REACH...AND THE EXTENT OF COLD AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS THAT WILL BE
AVAILABLE. SYSTEM MOVES NORTH AND EAST ON THURSDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

NW WINDS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. STRONGEST GUSTS DURING THE
DAY...THEN A DRAMATIC DECREASE TONIGHT.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTIONS WILL BE NEAR 310 MAGNETIC
TODAY...AND MAY FLUCTUATE ACROSS THE LINE THROUGHOUT THE AFTN/EVE.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTIONS WILL BE NEAR 310 MAGNETIC
TODAY...AND MAY FLUCTUATE ACROSS THE LINE THROUGHOUT THE AFTN/EVE.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTIONS WILL BE NEAR OR RIGHT ALONG
310 MAGNETIC TODAY. COULD REMAIN JUST LEFT OR ON 310...BUT MAY
FLUCTUATE ACROSS THE LINE THROUGHOUT THE AFTN/EVE.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS WELL INTO THE 20S TODAY.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SAT THROUGH TUE...
.SAT-SAT NIGHT...VFR. SW WINDS 10-15 GUSTS UP TO 20 KT DURING THE DAY.
.SUN...MAINLY VFR.
.SUN NIGHT-MON...MVFR/IFR. POSSIBLY SUB-IFR. RA AND FG WITH LLWS
POSSIBLE.
.TUE...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A FEW GUSTS TO 35 KT ARE POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN WATERS THIS
MORNING...OTHRWISE...SCA CONDS ON TAP FOR TODAY THROUGH TODAY FOR
ALL WATERS...WITH SCA CONDS CONTINUING INTO A PORTION OF TONIGHT
FOR THE OCEAN WATERS/EASTERN SOUND/EASTERN BAYS. LOOKS LIKE
ANOTHER SCA COULD BE NEEDED FOR THESE SAME AREAS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS A WSW FLOW INCREASES.

SCA WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AND THEN AGAIN ON MONDAY
WITH AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. GALE
FORCE WINDS COULD OCCUR ON MONDAY AS WELL. THE FRONT MOVES EAST OF
THE WATERS ON TUESDAY...BUT WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN AT SCA
LEVELS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE COMBINATION OF FREQUENT GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH...RH VALUES
DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 PERCENT...AND 4 DAYS
WITHOUT RAINFALL WILL PRESENT AN ENHANCED THREAT FOR BRUSH FIRE
SPREAD IF IGNITION OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY ON THE
COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN AMOUNTS THROUGH SUNDAY. RAIN IS EXPECTED SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH NO HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ335-
     338-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-
     340-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/DS
NEAR TERM...JC/MPS
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...JC/DS
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JC/DS









000
FXUS61 KBOX 211200
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
700 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BLUSTERY AND UNSEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS TODAY. TEMPERATURES
MODERATE SATURDAY WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS...THEN A SIGNIFICANT
WARM-UP IS IN STORE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A PERIOD OF RAIN. A COASTAL STORM MAY AFFECT THE
REGION SOMETIME DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BUT IT IS UNCERTAIN
HOW CLOSE IT WILL TRACK TO NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
7 AM UPDATE...
LAST IMPULSE DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COLD LONGWAVE TROF IS
MOVING SE OF THE REGION THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRES BEGINS TO NOSE
OVER FROM THE SW. EXPECT THE MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY...AND IN SPITE OF THIS...TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN WELL ON THE COOL SIDE OF NORMAL. FORECAST ON
TRACK...SO ADJUSTMENTS THIS MORNING ARE MINOR.

MID LEVEL TROF AND CORE OF COLD AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO NEW ENG
TODAY BUT COLUMN IS VERY DRY SO EXPECT MOSUNNY SKIES. UNSEASONABLY
COLD CONDITIONS AS 850 MB TEMPS -13/14C WHICH TRANSLATES TO MAXES
UPPER 20S NW HIGHER TERRAIN TO MID 30S COASTAL PLAIN. WIND WILL BE
A FACTOR AS PRESSURE GRADIENT AND GOOD MIXING SUPPORTS NW WIND
GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH WHICH WILL MAKE IT FEEL CONSIDERABLY COLDER IN
THE TEENS AND 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...
CENTER OF HIGH PRES MOVES TO THE MID ATLC COAST BUT RIDGE AXIS
BUILDS INTO NEW ENG WHICH WILL RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WIND AS PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. GIVEN VERY DRY
AIRMASS IT WILL BE A COLD NIGHT AS DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
DEVELOPS. MINS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE TEENS...EXCEPT LOWER 20S
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. LOW PROB FOR SOME SINGLE NUMBER MIN
TEMPS W MA AND SW NH.

SATURDAY...
HIGH PRES BUILDS S OF NEW ENG WITH SUNSHINE GIVING WAY TO
INCREASING AFTERNOON CLOUDS AS LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES FROM THE WEST. INCREASING SW FLOW BRINGS MILDER AIR
INTO SNE AS PRONOUNCED LOW AND MID LEVEL WARMING OCCURS. AFTER A
RATHER COLD START...TEMPS WILL RECOVER INTO THE MID 30S TO LOWER
40S. 40 KT LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS BY LATE DAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO
GUSTY SW WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COAST WHERE BETTER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
WITH THE ECMWF AND GFS OPERATIONAL RUNS CONTINUING TO SHOW
MODERATE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MID TERM...A GENERAL BLEND WILL BE
USED AS A BASELINE. ITS NOT UNTIL LATER ABOUT MID WEEK THAT THE
STRONGEST DIVERGENCE IN MODEL SOLUTIONS EVEN AMONG
ENSEMBLES/MEANS...SO CONFIDENCE THROUGH MON-TUE REMAINS RELATIVELY
HIGH WHILE CONFIDENCE BECOMES LOW FROM MID NEXT WEEK THROUGH THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY PERIOD.

THE ISSUE IS LIKELY THE SHIFTING PATTERN THROUGH THE
PERIOD...STARTING WITH BUILDING RIDGE SUN-MON AS PHASING NORTHERN
AND SOUTHERN STREAM WAVES DEVELOP INTO OCCLUDING SYSTEM AROUND THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS DEVELOPING TROF IS THEN EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
DEEPEN AND DIG INTO A SLOWER LONGWAVE TROF TO THE
W...SIMILAR...THOUGH NOT AS COLD AS THIS WEEK/S DEEP TROUGH BUT
WITH THE AXIS FURTHER TO THE W. THEREFORE...TIME-MEAN JET REMAINS
SOUTHWESTERLY AND WARMING UNTIL THE CORE CAN SLIDE TO THE E LATER
IN THE WEEK. AGREE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER...THAT THIS
SUGGEST THE NEAR NORMAL TO WARM WEATHER CONTINUES UNTIL A COOLING
TREND OCCURS LATER IN THE WEEK.

DETAILS...

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN EVENING...
SFC WARM FRONT WILL BE NOSING IN FROM THE W WHILE SHIFTING TO THE
N WITH TIME TOWARD 12Z SUN. NOTE MODEST MID LVL ISENTROPIC LIFT
WITH SOME MOISTURE SUGGESTING LOW END CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIP
ESPECIALLY N OF THE MA PIKE AND W OF I-495. TIMING WILL BE THE KEY
HERE...AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTER THAT IF THE CLOUDS BUILD IN
TOO QUICKLY TEMPS MAY REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING WHILE
ALLOWANCE FOR MORE COOLING SUGGESTS THAT SFC TEMPS MAY BE A FEW
DEGREES BELOW FREEZING. THEREFORE...MAY HAVE TO MONITOR FOR LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN...IF THE TEMPS FALL BACK INTO THE MID-UPPER 20S
LIGHT ICING IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT AGAIN TOTAL RAINFALL
WOULD BE LIGHT AND TEMPS MAY PRECLUDE ANY IMPACTS. WILL NEED TO
WATCH THIS AS WE APPROACH. OTHERWISE SUN...WARMING EXPECTED WITH
AREAS REACHING THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S BY LATE IN THE DAY IN SPITE
OF INCREASING CLOUDS. DWPTS ALSO RISE AS WELL.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...
OCCLUDING LOW PRES TO THE W WILL PUSH 60-65 KT LLJ THROUGH THE
REGION DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MON. THIS WILL BE
COINCIDENT WITH 1.0 INCH PWATS /ABOUT 2 STD DEVIATIONS FROM
NORMAL/. THEREFORE...EXPECT SOME WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WITH MODEST
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS AS K VALUES HOVER AROUND 30...SUGGESTING HEAVY
RAIN. THIS COULD ALSO YIELD SOME STRONG WINDS AND POSSIBLY EVEN A
FINE-LINE DEVELOPMENT WHICH WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. OVERALL
RAINFALL VALUES OF 0.5-1.0 INCHES EXPECTED...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE. AFTER A LULL THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS CONTINUES INTO MON
EVENING AS THE UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE PIVOTS THROUGH. MILD WX
CONTINUES AS HIGHS COULD APPROACH THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60F.

TUE...
HIGH PRES BUILDS IN BRIEFLY FOR TUE. WARM TEMPS STILL EXPECTED AS
THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR REMAINS TO THE W. EXPECT HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

WED-WED NIGHT...
STILL UNCERTAINTY HERE...BUT WITH STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE
SOUTHEAST...A DEVELOPING WAVE OF LOW PRES MAY PASS JUST CLOSE
ENOUGH THE 40/70 BENCHMARK TO INITIATE TROWAL BASED PRECIP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SRN NEW ENGLAND. REGARDING THERMAL PROFILES...WHICH
ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE GIVEN BOTH OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
ARE ONLY RECENTLY CONVERGING ON THIS...TEMPS APPROACHING -6C TO
-10C AT H85 SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF WINTERY PRECIP IN THE
INTERIOR...BUT MAY BE TOO WARM ALONG THE COAST. STILL TOO
UNCERTAIN HERE TO MAKE ANY CALLS...BUT WORTH WATCHING GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL TRAVEL IMPLICATIONS.

THU-FRI...
DEPENDENT ON THE FINAL TIMING TRACK OF THE OFFSHORE SYSTEM...HIGH
PRES WOULD FOLLOW FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD...WITH COLDER DRIER AIR
BUILDING IN FROM THE NW.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE. NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH 12Z UPDATE.

TODAY...
VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS TO 25 KT.

TONIGHT...VFR WITH DIMINISHING WIND.

SATURDAY...VFR. INCREASING SW WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO
25-30 KT DEVELOPING IN THE COASTAL PLAIN.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
CLOUDS MOVE IN AT NIGHT...BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT IN LIGHT
SPRINKLES ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE. COULD BE LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE/FREEZING SPRINKLES NORTH AND WEST OF I-495.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. DIMINISHING WIND.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...CIGS/VSBYS LOWER TO MVFR/IFR IN RAIN/FOG.
SOUTH WIND AT 2000 FEET INCREASES TO 60-65 KNOTS ALONG THE COASTAL
PLAIN LATE NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING AND MAY GENERATE ANOTHER ROUND
OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN THAT AREA. CONDITIONS THEN IMPROVE TO VFR
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS.

A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AT NIGHT AND SHOULD
GENERATE BRIEF MVFR IN SHOWERS. WIND WILL SHIFT FROM SSW TO WSW WITH
THE WIND SHIFT.

TUESDAY...VFR. A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN EASTERN MASS/RI

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE THRU SATURDAY.

TODAY...WE CONVERTED GALE WARNINGS TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR
ALL WATERS. EXPECT WIND GUSTS TODAY WILL FALL JUST SHY OF GALES
WITH NW GUSTS TO 30 KT.

TONIGHT...WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH SPEEDS DROPPING BELOW 20
KT LATE TONIGHT.

SATURDAY...EXPECT INCREASING SW WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AS DECENT
LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN STILL WARM SST...
GOOD MIXING OVER WATER SUPPORTS WIND GUSTS TO 30 KT WITH MARGINAL
GALES POSSIBLE BY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SAT NIGHT...SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST TO 35 KNOTS DURING
THE DAY AND THEN DIMINISH IN THE EVENING. SEAS 5-8 FEET WILL
DIMINISH IN THE EVENING.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...A WARM FRONT MOVES UP ACROSS THE WATERS. VSBYS
WILL LOWER TO 1-3 MILES IN RAIN AND FOG STARTING AROUND MIDNIGHT
CONTINUING INTO THE MORNING. STRONG SOUTH WINDS...ROUGHLY 60-65
KNOTS...AT 2000 FEET ALTITUDE WILL MOVE OVER THE WATERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. SOME OF THIS WIND MAY BE
DRAWN TO THE SURFACE IN HEAVIER BURSTS OF RAIN. AT THE
LEAST...SOUTH WINDS WILL BE ON THE HIGH END OF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS AT OR NEAR GALE. THIS WILL DRIVE SEAS TO 5-10
FEET ON THE EXPOSED WATERS.

TUESDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST NEAR SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS.
SEAS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH BUT REMAIN ABOVE 5 FEET ON THE EXPOSED
WATERS.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ230-
     232>237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ231-251-
     255-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-254.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DOODY
NEAR TERM...KJC/DOODY
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...KJC/DOODY
MARINE...KJC/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 211200
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
700 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BLUSTERY AND UNSEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS TODAY. TEMPERATURES
MODERATE SATURDAY WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS...THEN A SIGNIFICANT
WARM-UP IS IN STORE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A PERIOD OF RAIN. A COASTAL STORM MAY AFFECT THE
REGION SOMETIME DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BUT IT IS UNCERTAIN
HOW CLOSE IT WILL TRACK TO NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
7 AM UPDATE...
LAST IMPULSE DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COLD LONGWAVE TROF IS
MOVING SE OF THE REGION THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRES BEGINS TO NOSE
OVER FROM THE SW. EXPECT THE MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY...AND IN SPITE OF THIS...TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN WELL ON THE COOL SIDE OF NORMAL. FORECAST ON
TRACK...SO ADJUSTMENTS THIS MORNING ARE MINOR.

MID LEVEL TROF AND CORE OF COLD AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO NEW ENG
TODAY BUT COLUMN IS VERY DRY SO EXPECT MOSUNNY SKIES. UNSEASONABLY
COLD CONDITIONS AS 850 MB TEMPS -13/14C WHICH TRANSLATES TO MAXES
UPPER 20S NW HIGHER TERRAIN TO MID 30S COASTAL PLAIN. WIND WILL BE
A FACTOR AS PRESSURE GRADIENT AND GOOD MIXING SUPPORTS NW WIND
GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH WHICH WILL MAKE IT FEEL CONSIDERABLY COLDER IN
THE TEENS AND 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...
CENTER OF HIGH PRES MOVES TO THE MID ATLC COAST BUT RIDGE AXIS
BUILDS INTO NEW ENG WHICH WILL RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WIND AS PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. GIVEN VERY DRY
AIRMASS IT WILL BE A COLD NIGHT AS DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
DEVELOPS. MINS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE TEENS...EXCEPT LOWER 20S
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. LOW PROB FOR SOME SINGLE NUMBER MIN
TEMPS W MA AND SW NH.

SATURDAY...
HIGH PRES BUILDS S OF NEW ENG WITH SUNSHINE GIVING WAY TO
INCREASING AFTERNOON CLOUDS AS LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES FROM THE WEST. INCREASING SW FLOW BRINGS MILDER AIR
INTO SNE AS PRONOUNCED LOW AND MID LEVEL WARMING OCCURS. AFTER A
RATHER COLD START...TEMPS WILL RECOVER INTO THE MID 30S TO LOWER
40S. 40 KT LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS BY LATE DAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO
GUSTY SW WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COAST WHERE BETTER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
WITH THE ECMWF AND GFS OPERATIONAL RUNS CONTINUING TO SHOW
MODERATE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MID TERM...A GENERAL BLEND WILL BE
USED AS A BASELINE. ITS NOT UNTIL LATER ABOUT MID WEEK THAT THE
STRONGEST DIVERGENCE IN MODEL SOLUTIONS EVEN AMONG
ENSEMBLES/MEANS...SO CONFIDENCE THROUGH MON-TUE REMAINS RELATIVELY
HIGH WHILE CONFIDENCE BECOMES LOW FROM MID NEXT WEEK THROUGH THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY PERIOD.

THE ISSUE IS LIKELY THE SHIFTING PATTERN THROUGH THE
PERIOD...STARTING WITH BUILDING RIDGE SUN-MON AS PHASING NORTHERN
AND SOUTHERN STREAM WAVES DEVELOP INTO OCCLUDING SYSTEM AROUND THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS DEVELOPING TROF IS THEN EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
DEEPEN AND DIG INTO A SLOWER LONGWAVE TROF TO THE
W...SIMILAR...THOUGH NOT AS COLD AS THIS WEEK/S DEEP TROUGH BUT
WITH THE AXIS FURTHER TO THE W. THEREFORE...TIME-MEAN JET REMAINS
SOUTHWESTERLY AND WARMING UNTIL THE CORE CAN SLIDE TO THE E LATER
IN THE WEEK. AGREE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER...THAT THIS
SUGGEST THE NEAR NORMAL TO WARM WEATHER CONTINUES UNTIL A COOLING
TREND OCCURS LATER IN THE WEEK.

DETAILS...

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN EVENING...
SFC WARM FRONT WILL BE NOSING IN FROM THE W WHILE SHIFTING TO THE
N WITH TIME TOWARD 12Z SUN. NOTE MODEST MID LVL ISENTROPIC LIFT
WITH SOME MOISTURE SUGGESTING LOW END CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIP
ESPECIALLY N OF THE MA PIKE AND W OF I-495. TIMING WILL BE THE KEY
HERE...AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTER THAT IF THE CLOUDS BUILD IN
TOO QUICKLY TEMPS MAY REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING WHILE
ALLOWANCE FOR MORE COOLING SUGGESTS THAT SFC TEMPS MAY BE A FEW
DEGREES BELOW FREEZING. THEREFORE...MAY HAVE TO MONITOR FOR LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN...IF THE TEMPS FALL BACK INTO THE MID-UPPER 20S
LIGHT ICING IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT AGAIN TOTAL RAINFALL
WOULD BE LIGHT AND TEMPS MAY PRECLUDE ANY IMPACTS. WILL NEED TO
WATCH THIS AS WE APPROACH. OTHERWISE SUN...WARMING EXPECTED WITH
AREAS REACHING THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S BY LATE IN THE DAY IN SPITE
OF INCREASING CLOUDS. DWPTS ALSO RISE AS WELL.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...
OCCLUDING LOW PRES TO THE W WILL PUSH 60-65 KT LLJ THROUGH THE
REGION DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MON. THIS WILL BE
COINCIDENT WITH 1.0 INCH PWATS /ABOUT 2 STD DEVIATIONS FROM
NORMAL/. THEREFORE...EXPECT SOME WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WITH MODEST
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS AS K VALUES HOVER AROUND 30...SUGGESTING HEAVY
RAIN. THIS COULD ALSO YIELD SOME STRONG WINDS AND POSSIBLY EVEN A
FINE-LINE DEVELOPMENT WHICH WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. OVERALL
RAINFALL VALUES OF 0.5-1.0 INCHES EXPECTED...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE. AFTER A LULL THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS CONTINUES INTO MON
EVENING AS THE UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE PIVOTS THROUGH. MILD WX
CONTINUES AS HIGHS COULD APPROACH THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60F.

TUE...
HIGH PRES BUILDS IN BRIEFLY FOR TUE. WARM TEMPS STILL EXPECTED AS
THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR REMAINS TO THE W. EXPECT HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

WED-WED NIGHT...
STILL UNCERTAINTY HERE...BUT WITH STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE
SOUTHEAST...A DEVELOPING WAVE OF LOW PRES MAY PASS JUST CLOSE
ENOUGH THE 40/70 BENCHMARK TO INITIATE TROWAL BASED PRECIP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SRN NEW ENGLAND. REGARDING THERMAL PROFILES...WHICH
ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE GIVEN BOTH OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
ARE ONLY RECENTLY CONVERGING ON THIS...TEMPS APPROACHING -6C TO
-10C AT H85 SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF WINTERY PRECIP IN THE
INTERIOR...BUT MAY BE TOO WARM ALONG THE COAST. STILL TOO
UNCERTAIN HERE TO MAKE ANY CALLS...BUT WORTH WATCHING GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL TRAVEL IMPLICATIONS.

THU-FRI...
DEPENDENT ON THE FINAL TIMING TRACK OF THE OFFSHORE SYSTEM...HIGH
PRES WOULD FOLLOW FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD...WITH COLDER DRIER AIR
BUILDING IN FROM THE NW.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE. NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH 12Z UPDATE.

TODAY...
VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS TO 25 KT.

TONIGHT...VFR WITH DIMINISHING WIND.

SATURDAY...VFR. INCREASING SW WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO
25-30 KT DEVELOPING IN THE COASTAL PLAIN.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
CLOUDS MOVE IN AT NIGHT...BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT IN LIGHT
SPRINKLES ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE. COULD BE LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE/FREEZING SPRINKLES NORTH AND WEST OF I-495.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. DIMINISHING WIND.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...CIGS/VSBYS LOWER TO MVFR/IFR IN RAIN/FOG.
SOUTH WIND AT 2000 FEET INCREASES TO 60-65 KNOTS ALONG THE COASTAL
PLAIN LATE NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING AND MAY GENERATE ANOTHER ROUND
OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN THAT AREA. CONDITIONS THEN IMPROVE TO VFR
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS.

A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AT NIGHT AND