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000
FXUS61 KOKX 260547
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
147 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PERSIST OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF COAST STATES WILL TRACK TO
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY THURSDAY AND CONTINUING NORTHEAST INTO
THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MAY IMPACT THE AREA ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
FORECAST IS ON TRACK. AFTER COLLAB WITH BOX...SOME CONCERN WITH
REGARD TO TEMPS OVERNIGHT DUE TO HIGH CLOUDS ENCROACHING FROM THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS PIVOTING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND. ANY ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER MAY PREVENT TEMPS FROM
FALLING QUITE AS LOW AS CURRENT FCST. HOWEVER...LATEST HOURLY
GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST CLEARING OCCURS. LIGHT NORTH FLOW COULD LEAD
TO THE COOL TEMPS THAT ARE ALREADY IN THE FORECAST. AS
SUCH...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BEGINS TO PIVOT
SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY...WITH WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH REFLECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN.

DAYTIME INSTABILITY...STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND
CONVERGENCE ALONG SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SCT-BKN AFT/EVE
INSTABILITY CU AND ISO-SCT SHOWER DEVELOPING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AND SINKING S/SE. HIGHEST COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS CT IN
VICINITY OF SURFACE TROUGH. GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWERS
WITH INVERTED V SOUNDING. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S.

UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO SINK SE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.
DIMINISHING SURFACE INSTABILITY AND CONVERGENCE SHOULD END ANY
SHOWER ACTIVITY...BUT MID-DECK SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGH APPEARS
TO SINK SOUTH OVER THE REGION. THIS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS SEVERAL
DEGREES MILDER SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A BLOCKY PATTERN LOOKS TO DOMINATE THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK
ACROSS THE CONUS. A LARGE PERSISTENT CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO PLAGUE THE NORTHEAST US THROUGH TUESDAY WHICH WILL
RESULT IN GENERALLY MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND SCT SHOWERS
MON/MON NIGHT AS SPOKES OF VORTICITY WITHIN THE CYCLONIC FLOW
ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA.

THIS CUTOFF FINALLY EXITS ON TUE WITH RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDING IN
TUE NIGHT AND WED. DRY CONDS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED.

MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS DIVERGENT WITH HOW QUICKLY THE RIDGE AXIS
MOVES THROUGH AND THE NEXT TROUGH APPROACHES. GFS IS FASTER THAN THE
EC. WHAT BOTH MODELS DO AGREE ON IS THE PHASING OF A NRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WITH A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS RESULTING IN A
DEEP TROUGH THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUE NIGHT. THE SFC LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CUTOFF TRACKS THROUGH THE GULF COAST STATES TO
OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST ON THU AND CONTINUES ON A NE TRACK
THROUGH FRI. HOWEVER DUE TO THE DIFFERENCES ALOFT THE EC IS
STRONGER...SLOWER AND CLOSER TO THE COAST...BUT CONTINUES TO REMAIN
WELL S OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE KEPT SCHC POPS ACROSS THE AREA THU
AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES DIVE DOWN FROM THE N DURING THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE PATTERN EARLIER IN THE
FORECAST...THIS IS VERY LOW CONFIDENCE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVELS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REESTABLISHES ITSELF FROM THE NW THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS BEFORE ANOTHER THERMAL TROF SETS UP ACROSS THE
AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. THE HIGH THEN BUILDS BACK IN SUN NIGHT.

THIS WILL RESULT IN A N/NE FLOW AT LESS THAN 10 KT OVERNIGHT...
WHICH THEN BACKS AROUND THE THE W/SW BY AFTERNOON. SEABREEZES ARE
LIKELY AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS...DEVELOPING AS EARLY AS 15Z
ALONG THE CT COAST. KEWR AND KLGA MAY SEABREEZE LATE. WINDS ARE
LIKELY TO VARY AS THE TROUGH SETS UP IN THE AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THU...
.SUN NIGHT...VFR..
.MON-MON NIGHT...POSSIBLE MVFR WITH SHOWERS.
.TUE-WED NIGHT...VFR.
.THU...POSSIBLE MVFR WITH SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK PRES GRADIENT WILL KEEP SUB-ADVSY CONDS ACROSS THE WATERS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

MARGINAL NW GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE ON THE
EASTERN OCEAN WATERS AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CTZ005>008-
     010>012.
NY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ067>070-079-
     081.
NJ...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ002-004-103-
     105-107.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KOKX 260547
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
147 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PERSIST OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF COAST STATES WILL TRACK TO
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY THURSDAY AND CONTINUING NORTHEAST INTO
THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MAY IMPACT THE AREA ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
FORECAST IS ON TRACK. AFTER COLLAB WITH BOX...SOME CONCERN WITH
REGARD TO TEMPS OVERNIGHT DUE TO HIGH CLOUDS ENCROACHING FROM THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS PIVOTING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND. ANY ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER MAY PREVENT TEMPS FROM
FALLING QUITE AS LOW AS CURRENT FCST. HOWEVER...LATEST HOURLY
GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST CLEARING OCCURS. LIGHT NORTH FLOW COULD LEAD
TO THE COOL TEMPS THAT ARE ALREADY IN THE FORECAST. AS
SUCH...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BEGINS TO PIVOT
SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY...WITH WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH REFLECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN.

DAYTIME INSTABILITY...STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND
CONVERGENCE ALONG SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SCT-BKN AFT/EVE
INSTABILITY CU AND ISO-SCT SHOWER DEVELOPING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AND SINKING S/SE. HIGHEST COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS CT IN
VICINITY OF SURFACE TROUGH. GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWERS
WITH INVERTED V SOUNDING. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S.

UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO SINK SE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.
DIMINISHING SURFACE INSTABILITY AND CONVERGENCE SHOULD END ANY
SHOWER ACTIVITY...BUT MID-DECK SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGH APPEARS
TO SINK SOUTH OVER THE REGION. THIS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS SEVERAL
DEGREES MILDER SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A BLOCKY PATTERN LOOKS TO DOMINATE THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK
ACROSS THE CONUS. A LARGE PERSISTENT CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO PLAGUE THE NORTHEAST US THROUGH TUESDAY WHICH WILL
RESULT IN GENERALLY MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND SCT SHOWERS
MON/MON NIGHT AS SPOKES OF VORTICITY WITHIN THE CYCLONIC FLOW
ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA.

THIS CUTOFF FINALLY EXITS ON TUE WITH RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDING IN
TUE NIGHT AND WED. DRY CONDS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED.

MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS DIVERGENT WITH HOW QUICKLY THE RIDGE AXIS
MOVES THROUGH AND THE NEXT TROUGH APPROACHES. GFS IS FASTER THAN THE
EC. WHAT BOTH MODELS DO AGREE ON IS THE PHASING OF A NRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WITH A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS RESULTING IN A
DEEP TROUGH THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUE NIGHT. THE SFC LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CUTOFF TRACKS THROUGH THE GULF COAST STATES TO
OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST ON THU AND CONTINUES ON A NE TRACK
THROUGH FRI. HOWEVER DUE TO THE DIFFERENCES ALOFT THE EC IS
STRONGER...SLOWER AND CLOSER TO THE COAST...BUT CONTINUES TO REMAIN
WELL S OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE KEPT SCHC POPS ACROSS THE AREA THU
AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES DIVE DOWN FROM THE N DURING THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE PATTERN EARLIER IN THE
FORECAST...THIS IS VERY LOW CONFIDENCE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVELS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REESTABLISHES ITSELF FROM THE NW THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS BEFORE ANOTHER THERMAL TROF SETS UP ACROSS THE
AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. THE HIGH THEN BUILDS BACK IN SUN NIGHT.

THIS WILL RESULT IN A N/NE FLOW AT LESS THAN 10 KT OVERNIGHT...
WHICH THEN BACKS AROUND THE THE W/SW BY AFTERNOON. SEABREEZES ARE
LIKELY AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS...DEVELOPING AS EARLY AS 15Z
ALONG THE CT COAST. KEWR AND KLGA MAY SEABREEZE LATE. WINDS ARE
LIKELY TO VARY AS THE TROUGH SETS UP IN THE AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THU...
.SUN NIGHT...VFR..
.MON-MON NIGHT...POSSIBLE MVFR WITH SHOWERS.
.TUE-WED NIGHT...VFR.
.THU...POSSIBLE MVFR WITH SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK PRES GRADIENT WILL KEEP SUB-ADVSY CONDS ACROSS THE WATERS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

MARGINAL NW GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE ON THE
EASTERN OCEAN WATERS AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CTZ005>008-
     010>012.
NY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ067>070-079-
     081.
NJ...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ002-004-103-
     105-107.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$


  [top]

000
FXUS61 KALY 260503
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
103 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LEVEL STORM IN THE GULF OF MAINE WILL KEEP OUR
WEATHER UNSETTLED AND UNSEASONABLY COOL THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK.  A
RETURN TO MORE SPRING LIKE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE MID WEEK
PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1230 AM EDT...CLOUDS REMAIN INTACT MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF
I90 PER THE IR/FOG SATELLITE PRODUCTS THIS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING SO
HAVE ADJUSTED THE SKY GRIDS/FORECAST. IN ADDITION...DEWPOINTS
EVERYWHERE WERE RUNNING A LITTLE WARMER SO HAVE ADJUST UPWARD BOTH
THE DEWPOINTS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO. OTHERWISE...A
TRANQUIL NIGHT EXPECTED AS IT WILL BE A CHILLY NIGHT AGAIN WITH
LOWS 25F TO 35F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF CONTINUES TO SHIFT SLOWLY WESTWARD ON
SUNDAY...CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN MOST AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN A MUCH BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON MONDAY AS
THE UPPER LOW GETS RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE REGION. HAVE FORECAST
35 TO 50 PERCENT POPS ON MONDAY FOR MOST OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY...EASTWARD TO THE BERKSHIRES AND NW CT. LIKELY POPS ARE
FORECAST FROM THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS TO THE LAKE GEORGE
AREA...THE ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK VALLEY AND EASTERN CATSKILLS. THE
LOW WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
AND HAVE FORECAST POPS TO LOWER TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN ALL AREAS BY
LATE AT NIGHT.

ONCE CLOUDS INCREASE TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ON SUNDAY...EXPECT SKY COVER
TO REMAIN CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MONDAY...THEN START TO
SLOWLY DECREASE MONDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN COOL DURING THE PERIOD...AND WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS FOR THE
SHOWERS TO FALL AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW OR JUST SNOW IN HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS. LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. HIGHS SUNDAY
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 30S TO
AROUND 40. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S ONCE AGAIN. LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH THE CUT-OFF LOW STILL POTENTIALLY
IMPACTING OUR REGION. HOWEVER...IT NOW LOOKS AS IF SOUTHERN STREAM
ENERGY WILL NOT PHASE WITH THIS FEATURE. ALL OF THE LONG RANGE
FORECAST MODELS INDICATED THE NORTHERN STREAM CUTOFF LOW WILL BEGIN
TO SLOWLY EXIT ON TUESDAY...BUT THERE STILL COULD BE SOME UPSLOPE
SHOWERS TO THE EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY SO CONTINUED THE IDEA OF
POPS IN THAT AREA ON TUESDAY. THERE MIGHT ALSO BE A FEW LIGHT RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WITH A LITTLE MOISTURE OFF
LAKE ONTARIO.

THEN...THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW LOOKS TO BECOME WEAKLY
ANTICYCLONIC BY WEDNESDAY. THE 12Z GFS HAD A WEAK COLD FRONT
WORKING ACROSS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY...BUT CANADIAN AND
EUROPEAN MODELS DID NOT HAVE THIS FEATURE ARRIVING UNTIL EARLY
THURSDAY.

WE WILL KEEP WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY DRY WITH THE CHANCE FOR MAINLY
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. BY SATURDAY...THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT A RIDGE COULD START BUILDING INTO OUR REGION FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY WHICH WOULD BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES.

UNTIL THAT TIME...TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE CLOSE TO
NORMAL WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN....LOWER 60S TO UPPER 60S VALLEY LOCATIONS. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S MOUNTAINS AND COLDEST
SHELTERED VALLEYS...LOWER TO MID 40S MOST OTHER PLACES. BY NEXT
SATURDAY...WE GO WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 IN THE VALLEYS...60S HIGHER
TERRAIN.

PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE BELOW NORMAL DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS
ANY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS THAT TAKE PLACE LOOK LIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO BE SITUATED JUST EAST OF NEW
ENGLAND. AS MOISTURE ROTATES AROUND THIS FEATURE...BKN-OVC CIGS OF 5-
7 KFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REAMINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR
KGFL/KALB/KPSF. MEANWHILE...SKIES WILL BE NEARLY CLEAR AT KPOU WITH
JUST SOME PASSING CIRRUS CLOUDS...THANKS TO A WEAK FEATURE ALOFT
MOVING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. AT ALL SITES...FLYING
CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE VFR THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH NEARLY CALM
WINDS.

DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...DAYTIME MIXING WILL ALLOW W-NW WINDS TO
INCREASE TO 5-10 KTS. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW STARTS TO ROTATE BACK
WESTWARD...THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT WILL PROMOTE STRATOCU CLOUDS TO
DEVELOP AT ALL SITES BY THE LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTN HOURS....WITH
BKN-OVC CIGS FOR ALL TERMINALS AT 4-6 KFT.

WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTING CLOSER TO THE REGION...A RAIN
SHOWER OR TWO MAY DEVELOP BY LATE IN THE DAY AND INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...MAINLY FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS...BUT COVERAGE LOOKS TO
TOO SMALL TO ADDRESS WITH MORE THAN JUST A VCSH IN THE TAFS AT THIS
TIME. WINDS LOOK TO DIMINISH TO 5 KTS OR LESS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
CONTINUED BKN-OVC CIGS IN PLACE.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA.
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT : MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA.
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT : NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT...RH VALUES WILL RECOVER TO BETWEEN
70 AND 90 PERCENT.

THERE WILL BE A FURTHER INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE ON
SUNDAY...ALONG WITH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FROM LATE SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ELEVATED WITH MINIMUM
VALUES ON SUNDAY RANGING FROM 35 TO 45 PERCENT...THEN 40 TO 60
PERCENT ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION. ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION
WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR
HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA /HSA/.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/BGM
NEAR TERM...GJM/BGM/JPV
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/BGM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY




000
FXUS61 KALY 260503
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
103 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LEVEL STORM IN THE GULF OF MAINE WILL KEEP OUR
WEATHER UNSETTLED AND UNSEASONABLY COOL THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK.  A
RETURN TO MORE SPRING LIKE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE MID WEEK
PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1230 AM EDT...CLOUDS REMAIN INTACT MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF
I90 PER THE IR/FOG SATELLITE PRODUCTS THIS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING SO
HAVE ADJUSTED THE SKY GRIDS/FORECAST. IN ADDITION...DEWPOINTS
EVERYWHERE WERE RUNNING A LITTLE WARMER SO HAVE ADJUST UPWARD BOTH
THE DEWPOINTS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO. OTHERWISE...A
TRANQUIL NIGHT EXPECTED AS IT WILL BE A CHILLY NIGHT AGAIN WITH
LOWS 25F TO 35F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF CONTINUES TO SHIFT SLOWLY WESTWARD ON
SUNDAY...CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN MOST AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN A MUCH BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON MONDAY AS
THE UPPER LOW GETS RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE REGION. HAVE FORECAST
35 TO 50 PERCENT POPS ON MONDAY FOR MOST OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY...EASTWARD TO THE BERKSHIRES AND NW CT. LIKELY POPS ARE
FORECAST FROM THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS TO THE LAKE GEORGE
AREA...THE ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK VALLEY AND EASTERN CATSKILLS. THE
LOW WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
AND HAVE FORECAST POPS TO LOWER TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN ALL AREAS BY
LATE AT NIGHT.

ONCE CLOUDS INCREASE TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ON SUNDAY...EXPECT SKY COVER
TO REMAIN CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MONDAY...THEN START TO
SLOWLY DECREASE MONDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN COOL DURING THE PERIOD...AND WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS FOR THE
SHOWERS TO FALL AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW OR JUST SNOW IN HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS. LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. HIGHS SUNDAY
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 30S TO
AROUND 40. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S ONCE AGAIN. LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH THE CUT-OFF LOW STILL POTENTIALLY
IMPACTING OUR REGION. HOWEVER...IT NOW LOOKS AS IF SOUTHERN STREAM
ENERGY WILL NOT PHASE WITH THIS FEATURE. ALL OF THE LONG RANGE
FORECAST MODELS INDICATED THE NORTHERN STREAM CUTOFF LOW WILL BEGIN
TO SLOWLY EXIT ON TUESDAY...BUT THERE STILL COULD BE SOME UPSLOPE
SHOWERS TO THE EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY SO CONTINUED THE IDEA OF
POPS IN THAT AREA ON TUESDAY. THERE MIGHT ALSO BE A FEW LIGHT RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WITH A LITTLE MOISTURE OFF
LAKE ONTARIO.

THEN...THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW LOOKS TO BECOME WEAKLY
ANTICYCLONIC BY WEDNESDAY. THE 12Z GFS HAD A WEAK COLD FRONT
WORKING ACROSS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY...BUT CANADIAN AND
EUROPEAN MODELS DID NOT HAVE THIS FEATURE ARRIVING UNTIL EARLY
THURSDAY.

WE WILL KEEP WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY DRY WITH THE CHANCE FOR MAINLY
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. BY SATURDAY...THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT A RIDGE COULD START BUILDING INTO OUR REGION FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY WHICH WOULD BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES.

UNTIL THAT TIME...TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE CLOSE TO
NORMAL WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN....LOWER 60S TO UPPER 60S VALLEY LOCATIONS. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S MOUNTAINS AND COLDEST
SHELTERED VALLEYS...LOWER TO MID 40S MOST OTHER PLACES. BY NEXT
SATURDAY...WE GO WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 IN THE VALLEYS...60S HIGHER
TERRAIN.

PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE BELOW NORMAL DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS
ANY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS THAT TAKE PLACE LOOK LIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO BE SITUATED JUST EAST OF NEW
ENGLAND. AS MOISTURE ROTATES AROUND THIS FEATURE...BKN-OVC CIGS OF 5-
7 KFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REAMINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR
KGFL/KALB/KPSF. MEANWHILE...SKIES WILL BE NEARLY CLEAR AT KPOU WITH
JUST SOME PASSING CIRRUS CLOUDS...THANKS TO A WEAK FEATURE ALOFT
MOVING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. AT ALL SITES...FLYING
CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE VFR THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH NEARLY CALM
WINDS.

DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...DAYTIME MIXING WILL ALLOW W-NW WINDS TO
INCREASE TO 5-10 KTS. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW STARTS TO ROTATE BACK
WESTWARD...THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT WILL PROMOTE STRATOCU CLOUDS TO
DEVELOP AT ALL SITES BY THE LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTN HOURS....WITH
BKN-OVC CIGS FOR ALL TERMINALS AT 4-6 KFT.

WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTING CLOSER TO THE REGION...A RAIN
SHOWER OR TWO MAY DEVELOP BY LATE IN THE DAY AND INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...MAINLY FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS...BUT COVERAGE LOOKS TO
TOO SMALL TO ADDRESS WITH MORE THAN JUST A VCSH IN THE TAFS AT THIS
TIME. WINDS LOOK TO DIMINISH TO 5 KTS OR LESS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
CONTINUED BKN-OVC CIGS IN PLACE.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA.
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT : MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA.
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT : NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT...RH VALUES WILL RECOVER TO BETWEEN
70 AND 90 PERCENT.

THERE WILL BE A FURTHER INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE ON
SUNDAY...ALONG WITH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FROM LATE SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ELEVATED WITH MINIMUM
VALUES ON SUNDAY RANGING FROM 35 TO 45 PERCENT...THEN 40 TO 60
PERCENT ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION. ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION
WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR
HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA /HSA/.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/BGM
NEAR TERM...GJM/BGM/JPV
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/BGM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY



000
FXUS61 KALY 260503
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
103 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LEVEL STORM IN THE GULF OF MAINE WILL KEEP OUR
WEATHER UNSETTLED AND UNSEASONABLY COOL THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK.  A
RETURN TO MORE SPRING LIKE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE MID WEEK
PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1230 AM EDT...CLOUDS REMAIN INTACT MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF
I90 PER THE IR/FOG SATELLITE PRODUCTS THIS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING SO
HAVE ADJUSTED THE SKY GRIDS/FORECAST. IN ADDITION...DEWPOINTS
EVERYWHERE WERE RUNNING A LITTLE WARMER SO HAVE ADJUST UPWARD BOTH
THE DEWPOINTS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO. OTHERWISE...A
TRANQUIL NIGHT EXPECTED AS IT WILL BE A CHILLY NIGHT AGAIN WITH
LOWS 25F TO 35F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF CONTINUES TO SHIFT SLOWLY WESTWARD ON
SUNDAY...CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN MOST AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN A MUCH BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON MONDAY AS
THE UPPER LOW GETS RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE REGION. HAVE FORECAST
35 TO 50 PERCENT POPS ON MONDAY FOR MOST OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY...EASTWARD TO THE BERKSHIRES AND NW CT. LIKELY POPS ARE
FORECAST FROM THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS TO THE LAKE GEORGE
AREA...THE ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK VALLEY AND EASTERN CATSKILLS. THE
LOW WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
AND HAVE FORECAST POPS TO LOWER TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN ALL AREAS BY
LATE AT NIGHT.

ONCE CLOUDS INCREASE TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ON SUNDAY...EXPECT SKY COVER
TO REMAIN CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MONDAY...THEN START TO
SLOWLY DECREASE MONDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN COOL DURING THE PERIOD...AND WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS FOR THE
SHOWERS TO FALL AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW OR JUST SNOW IN HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS. LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. HIGHS SUNDAY
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 30S TO
AROUND 40. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S ONCE AGAIN. LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH THE CUT-OFF LOW STILL POTENTIALLY
IMPACTING OUR REGION. HOWEVER...IT NOW LOOKS AS IF SOUTHERN STREAM
ENERGY WILL NOT PHASE WITH THIS FEATURE. ALL OF THE LONG RANGE
FORECAST MODELS INDICATED THE NORTHERN STREAM CUTOFF LOW WILL BEGIN
TO SLOWLY EXIT ON TUESDAY...BUT THERE STILL COULD BE SOME UPSLOPE
SHOWERS TO THE EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY SO CONTINUED THE IDEA OF
POPS IN THAT AREA ON TUESDAY. THERE MIGHT ALSO BE A FEW LIGHT RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WITH A LITTLE MOISTURE OFF
LAKE ONTARIO.

THEN...THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW LOOKS TO BECOME WEAKLY
ANTICYCLONIC BY WEDNESDAY. THE 12Z GFS HAD A WEAK COLD FRONT
WORKING ACROSS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY...BUT CANADIAN AND
EUROPEAN MODELS DID NOT HAVE THIS FEATURE ARRIVING UNTIL EARLY
THURSDAY.

WE WILL KEEP WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY DRY WITH THE CHANCE FOR MAINLY
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. BY SATURDAY...THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT A RIDGE COULD START BUILDING INTO OUR REGION FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY WHICH WOULD BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES.

UNTIL THAT TIME...TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE CLOSE TO
NORMAL WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN....LOWER 60S TO UPPER 60S VALLEY LOCATIONS. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S MOUNTAINS AND COLDEST
SHELTERED VALLEYS...LOWER TO MID 40S MOST OTHER PLACES. BY NEXT
SATURDAY...WE GO WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 IN THE VALLEYS...60S HIGHER
TERRAIN.

PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE BELOW NORMAL DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS
ANY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS THAT TAKE PLACE LOOK LIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO BE SITUATED JUST EAST OF NEW
ENGLAND. AS MOISTURE ROTATES AROUND THIS FEATURE...BKN-OVC CIGS OF 5-
7 KFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REAMINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR
KGFL/KALB/KPSF. MEANWHILE...SKIES WILL BE NEARLY CLEAR AT KPOU WITH
JUST SOME PASSING CIRRUS CLOUDS...THANKS TO A WEAK FEATURE ALOFT
MOVING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. AT ALL SITES...FLYING
CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE VFR THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH NEARLY CALM
WINDS.

DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...DAYTIME MIXING WILL ALLOW W-NW WINDS TO
INCREASE TO 5-10 KTS. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW STARTS TO ROTATE BACK
WESTWARD...THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT WILL PROMOTE STRATOCU CLOUDS TO
DEVELOP AT ALL SITES BY THE LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTN HOURS....WITH
BKN-OVC CIGS FOR ALL TERMINALS AT 4-6 KFT.

WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTING CLOSER TO THE REGION...A RAIN
SHOWER OR TWO MAY DEVELOP BY LATE IN THE DAY AND INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...MAINLY FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS...BUT COVERAGE LOOKS TO
TOO SMALL TO ADDRESS WITH MORE THAN JUST A VCSH IN THE TAFS AT THIS
TIME. WINDS LOOK TO DIMINISH TO 5 KTS OR LESS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
CONTINUED BKN-OVC CIGS IN PLACE.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA.
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT : MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA.
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT : NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT...RH VALUES WILL RECOVER TO BETWEEN
70 AND 90 PERCENT.

THERE WILL BE A FURTHER INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE ON
SUNDAY...ALONG WITH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FROM LATE SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ELEVATED WITH MINIMUM
VALUES ON SUNDAY RANGING FROM 35 TO 45 PERCENT...THEN 40 TO 60
PERCENT ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION. ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION
WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR
HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA /HSA/.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/BGM
NEAR TERM...GJM/BGM/JPV
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/BGM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY



000
FXUS61 KALY 260503
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
103 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LEVEL STORM IN THE GULF OF MAINE WILL KEEP OUR
WEATHER UNSETTLED AND UNSEASONABLY COOL THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK.  A
RETURN TO MORE SPRING LIKE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE MID WEEK
PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1230 AM EDT...CLOUDS REMAIN INTACT MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF
I90 PER THE IR/FOG SATELLITE PRODUCTS THIS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING SO
HAVE ADJUSTED THE SKY GRIDS/FORECAST. IN ADDITION...DEWPOINTS
EVERYWHERE WERE RUNNING A LITTLE WARMER SO HAVE ADJUST UPWARD BOTH
THE DEWPOINTS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO. OTHERWISE...A
TRANQUIL NIGHT EXPECTED AS IT WILL BE A CHILLY NIGHT AGAIN WITH
LOWS 25F TO 35F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF CONTINUES TO SHIFT SLOWLY WESTWARD ON
SUNDAY...CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN MOST AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN A MUCH BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON MONDAY AS
THE UPPER LOW GETS RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE REGION. HAVE FORECAST
35 TO 50 PERCENT POPS ON MONDAY FOR MOST OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY...EASTWARD TO THE BERKSHIRES AND NW CT. LIKELY POPS ARE
FORECAST FROM THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS TO THE LAKE GEORGE
AREA...THE ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK VALLEY AND EASTERN CATSKILLS. THE
LOW WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
AND HAVE FORECAST POPS TO LOWER TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN ALL AREAS BY
LATE AT NIGHT.

ONCE CLOUDS INCREASE TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ON SUNDAY...EXPECT SKY COVER
TO REMAIN CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MONDAY...THEN START TO
SLOWLY DECREASE MONDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN COOL DURING THE PERIOD...AND WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS FOR THE
SHOWERS TO FALL AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW OR JUST SNOW IN HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS. LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. HIGHS SUNDAY
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 30S TO
AROUND 40. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S ONCE AGAIN. LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH THE CUT-OFF LOW STILL POTENTIALLY
IMPACTING OUR REGION. HOWEVER...IT NOW LOOKS AS IF SOUTHERN STREAM
ENERGY WILL NOT PHASE WITH THIS FEATURE. ALL OF THE LONG RANGE
FORECAST MODELS INDICATED THE NORTHERN STREAM CUTOFF LOW WILL BEGIN
TO SLOWLY EXIT ON TUESDAY...BUT THERE STILL COULD BE SOME UPSLOPE
SHOWERS TO THE EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY SO CONTINUED THE IDEA OF
POPS IN THAT AREA ON TUESDAY. THERE MIGHT ALSO BE A FEW LIGHT RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WITH A LITTLE MOISTURE OFF
LAKE ONTARIO.

THEN...THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW LOOKS TO BECOME WEAKLY
ANTICYCLONIC BY WEDNESDAY. THE 12Z GFS HAD A WEAK COLD FRONT
WORKING ACROSS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY...BUT CANADIAN AND
EUROPEAN MODELS DID NOT HAVE THIS FEATURE ARRIVING UNTIL EARLY
THURSDAY.

WE WILL KEEP WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY DRY WITH THE CHANCE FOR MAINLY
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. BY SATURDAY...THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT A RIDGE COULD START BUILDING INTO OUR REGION FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY WHICH WOULD BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES.

UNTIL THAT TIME...TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE CLOSE TO
NORMAL WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN....LOWER 60S TO UPPER 60S VALLEY LOCATIONS. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S MOUNTAINS AND COLDEST
SHELTERED VALLEYS...LOWER TO MID 40S MOST OTHER PLACES. BY NEXT
SATURDAY...WE GO WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 IN THE VALLEYS...60S HIGHER
TERRAIN.

PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE BELOW NORMAL DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS
ANY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS THAT TAKE PLACE LOOK LIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO BE SITUATED JUST EAST OF NEW
ENGLAND. AS MOISTURE ROTATES AROUND THIS FEATURE...BKN-OVC CIGS OF 5-
7 KFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REAMINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR
KGFL/KALB/KPSF. MEANWHILE...SKIES WILL BE NEARLY CLEAR AT KPOU WITH
JUST SOME PASSING CIRRUS CLOUDS...THANKS TO A WEAK FEATURE ALOFT
MOVING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. AT ALL SITES...FLYING
CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE VFR THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH NEARLY CALM
WINDS.

DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...DAYTIME MIXING WILL ALLOW W-NW WINDS TO
INCREASE TO 5-10 KTS. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW STARTS TO ROTATE BACK
WESTWARD...THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT WILL PROMOTE STRATOCU CLOUDS TO
DEVELOP AT ALL SITES BY THE LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTN HOURS....WITH
BKN-OVC CIGS FOR ALL TERMINALS AT 4-6 KFT.

WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTING CLOSER TO THE REGION...A RAIN
SHOWER OR TWO MAY DEVELOP BY LATE IN THE DAY AND INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...MAINLY FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS...BUT COVERAGE LOOKS TO
TOO SMALL TO ADDRESS WITH MORE THAN JUST A VCSH IN THE TAFS AT THIS
TIME. WINDS LOOK TO DIMINISH TO 5 KTS OR LESS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
CONTINUED BKN-OVC CIGS IN PLACE.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA.
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT : MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA.
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT : NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT...RH VALUES WILL RECOVER TO BETWEEN
70 AND 90 PERCENT.

THERE WILL BE A FURTHER INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE ON
SUNDAY...ALONG WITH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FROM LATE SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ELEVATED WITH MINIMUM
VALUES ON SUNDAY RANGING FROM 35 TO 45 PERCENT...THEN 40 TO 60
PERCENT ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION. ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION
WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR
HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA /HSA/.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/BGM
NEAR TERM...GJM/BGM/JPV
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/BGM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY




000
FXUS61 KALY 260224
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1024 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LEVEL STORM IN THE GULF OF MAINE WILL WOBBLE BACK INTO
MAINE ON SUNDAY...WHICH WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1024 PM EDT...PATCHY CLOUDS REMAIN LATE THIS EVENING FROM
AROUND I-90 NORTHWARD WITH SOME BREAKS...WHILE THERE ARE MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES TO THE SOUTH. CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY START TO INCREASE
AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...AS THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE GULF OF MAINE BEGINS TO WOBBLE WESTWARD AND BRINGS AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE. IT WILL BE A CHILLY NIGHT AGAIN WITH LOWS 25
TO 35.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF CONTINUES TO SHIFT SLOWLY WESTWARD ON
SUNDAY...CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN MOST AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN A MUCH BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON MONDAY AS
THE UPPER LOW GETS RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE REGION. HAVE FORECAST
35 TO 50 PERCENT POPS ON MONDAY FOR MOST OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY...EASTWARD TO THE BERKSHIRES AND NW CT. LIKELY POPS ARE
FORECAST FROM THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS TO THE LAKE GEORGE
AREA...THE ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK VALLEY AND EASTERN CATSKILLS. THE
LOW WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
AND HAVE FORECAST POPS TO LOWER TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN ALL AREAS BY
LATE AT NIGHT.

ONCE CLOUDS INCREASE TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ON SUNDAY...EXPECT SKY COVER
TO REMAIN CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MONDAY...THEN START TO
SLOWLY DECREASE MONDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN COOL DURING THE PERIOD...AND WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS FOR THE
SHOWERS TO FALL AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW OR JUST SNOW IN HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS. LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. HIGHS SUNDAY
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 30S TO
AROUND 40. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S ONCE AGAIN. LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH THE CUT-OFF LOW STILL POTENTIALLY
IMPACTING OUR REGION. HOWEVER...IT NOW LOOKS AS IF SOUTHERN STREAM
ENERGY WILL NOT PHASE WITH THIS FEATURE. ALL OF THE LONG RANGE
FORECAST MODELS INDICATED THE NORTHERN STREAM CUTOFF LOW WILL BEGIN
TO SLOWLY EXIT ON TUESDAY...BUT THERE STILL COULD BE SOME UPSLOPE
SHOWERS TO THE EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY SO CONTINUED THE IDEA OF
POPS IN THAT AREA ON TUESDAY. THERE MIGHT ALSO BE A FEW LIGHT RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WITH A LITTLE MOISTURE OFF
LAKE ONTARIO.

THEN...THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW LOOKS TO BECOME WEAKLY
ANTICYCLONIC BY WEDNESDAY. THE 12Z GFS HAD A WEAK COLD FRONT
WORKING ACROSS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY...BUT CANADIAN AND
EUROPEAN MODELS DID NOT HAVE THIS FEATURE ARRIVING UNTIL EARLY
THURSDAY.

WE WILL KEEP WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY DRY WITH THE CHANCE FOR MAINLY
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. BY SATURDAY...THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT A RIDGE COULD START BUILDING INTO OUR REGION FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY WHICH WOULD BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES.

UNTIL THAT TIME...TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE CLOSE TO
NORMAL WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN....LOWER 60S TO UPPER 60S VALLEY LOCATIONS. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S MOUNTAINS AND COLDEST
SHELTERED VALLEYS...LOWER TO MID 40S MOST OTHER PLACES. BY NEXT
SATURDAY...WE GO WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 IN THE VALLEYS...60S HIGHER
TERRAIN.

PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE BELOW NORMAL DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS
ANY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS THAT TAKE PLACE LOOK LIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WILL GRADUALLY BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO OUR REGION THROUGH
SUNDAY. INITIALLY THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM...SO JUST INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS IN VFR RANGE
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z MONDAY. TONIGHT IT APPEARS THE CLOUD
LINE WILL BE FROM AROUND KALB/KPSF NORTHWARD TO KGFL...WHILE KPOU
REMAINS MOSTLY CLEAR.

WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST LESS THAN 5 KTS TONIGHT...INCREASING
TO AROUND 6-8 KTS SUNDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT...RH VALUES WILL RECOVER TO BETWEEN
70 AND 90 PERCENT.

THERE WILL BE A FURTHER INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE ON
SUNDAY...ALONG WITH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FROM LATE SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ELEVATED WITH MINIMUM
VALUES ON SUNDAY RANGING FROM 35 TO 45 PERCENT...THEN 40 TO 60
PERCENT ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION. ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION
WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR
HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA /HSA/.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/JPV
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/BGM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM



000
FXUS61 KOKX 260156
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
956 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PERSIST OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF COAST STATES WILL TRACK TO
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY THURSDAY AND CONTINUING NORTHEAST INTO
THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MAY IMPACT THE AREA ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST IS ON TRACK. AFTER COLLAB WITH BOX...SOME CONCERN WITH
REGARD TO TEMPS OVERNIGHT DUE TO HIGH CLOUDS ENCROACHING FROM THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS PIVOTING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND. ANY ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER MAY PREVENT TEMPS FROM
FALLING QUITE AS LOW AS CURRENT FCST. HOWEVER...LATEST HOURLY
GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST CLEARING OCCURS. LIGHT NORTH FLOW COULD LEAD
TO THE COOL TEMPS THAT ARE ALREADY IN THE FORECAST. AS
SUCH...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BEGINS TO PIVOT
SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY...WITH WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH REFLECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN.

DAYTIME INSTABILITY...STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND
CONVERGENCE ALONG SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SCT-BKN AFT/EVE
INSTABILITY CU AND ISO-SCT SHOWER DEVELOPING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AND SINKING S/SE. HIGHEST COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS CT IN
VICINITY OF SURFACE TROUGH. GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWERS
WITH INVERTED V SOUNDING. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S.

UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO SINK SE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.
DIMINISHING SURFACE INSTABILITY AND CONVERGENCE SHOULD END ANY
SHOWER ACTIVITY...BUT MID-DECK SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGH APPEARS
TO SINK SOUTH OVER THE REGION. THIS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS SEVERAL
DEGREES MILDER SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A BLOCKY PATTERN LOOKS TO DOMINATE THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK
ACROSS THE CONUS. A LARGE PERSISTENT CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO PLAGUE THE NORTHEAST US THROUGH TUESDAY WHICH WILL
RESULT IN GENERALLY MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND SCT SHOWERS MON/MON
NIGHT AS SPOKES OF VORTICITY WITHIN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ROTATE THROUGH
THE AREA.

THIS CUTOFF FINALLY EXITS ON TUE WITH RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDING IN
TUE NIGHT AND WED. DRY CONDS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED.

MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS DIVERGENT WITH HOW QUICKLY THE RIDGE AXIS
MOVES THROUGH AND THE NEXT TROUGH APPROACHES. GFS IS FASTER THAN THE
EC. WHAT BOTH MODELS DO AGREE ON IS THE PHASING OF A NRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WITH A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS RESULTING IN A
DEEP TROUGH THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUE NIGHT. THE SFC LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CUTOFF TRACKS THROUGH THE GULF COAST STATES TO
OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST ON THU AND CONTINUES ON A NE TRACK
THROUGH FRI. HOWEVER DUE TO THE DIFFERENCES ALOFT THE EC IS
STRONGER...SLOWER AND CLOSER TO THE COAST...BUT CONTINUES TO REMAIN
WELL S OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE KEPT SCHC POPS ACROSS THE AREA THU
AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES DIVE DOWN FROM THE N DURING THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE PATTERN EARLIER IN THE
FORECAST...THIS IS VERY LOW CONFIDENCE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVELS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL GIVE WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
FROM THE NORTHWEST.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TURN TO THE NORTH OVERNIGHT. ONLY SOME MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE FORECAST OVERNIGHT. VFR.

DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...ANOTHER TROUGH DEVELOPS. NORTHERLY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED IN THE MORNING...THEN WINDS WILL VARY BASED ON
LOCATION DURING THE AFTERNOON. GENERALLY EXPECT NW WINDS FOR NJ
AND LOWER HUDSON VALLEY TERMINALS...WITH POTENTIAL W/SW OR SEA
BREEZE WIND FLOW TO THE EAST ON LONG ISLAND AND SRN CT. VFR WITH
BROKEN CU AND AC DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. A FEW
SHOWERS WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH...BUT GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH 00Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THU...
.SUN NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLE MVFR WITH SHOWERS EARLY EVE.
.MON-MON NIGHT...POSSIBLE MVFR WITH SHOWERS.
.TUE-WED NIGHT...VFR.
.THU...POSSIBLE MVFR WITH SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK PRES GRADIENT WILL KEEP SUB-ADVSY CONDS ACROSS THE WATERS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

MARGINAL NW GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE ON THE
EASTERN OCEAN WATERS AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR CTZ005>008-
     010>012.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NYZ067>070-079-
     081.
NJ...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NJZ002-004-103-
     105-107.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...PW



000
FXUS61 KOKX 260156
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
956 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PERSIST OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF COAST STATES WILL TRACK TO
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY THURSDAY AND CONTINUING NORTHEAST INTO
THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MAY IMPACT THE AREA ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST IS ON TRACK. AFTER COLLAB WITH BOX...SOME CONCERN WITH
REGARD TO TEMPS OVERNIGHT DUE TO HIGH CLOUDS ENCROACHING FROM THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS PIVOTING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND. ANY ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER MAY PREVENT TEMPS FROM
FALLING QUITE AS LOW AS CURRENT FCST. HOWEVER...LATEST HOURLY
GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST CLEARING OCCURS. LIGHT NORTH FLOW COULD LEAD
TO THE COOL TEMPS THAT ARE ALREADY IN THE FORECAST. AS
SUCH...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BEGINS TO PIVOT
SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY...WITH WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH REFLECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN.

DAYTIME INSTABILITY...STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND
CONVERGENCE ALONG SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SCT-BKN AFT/EVE
INSTABILITY CU AND ISO-SCT SHOWER DEVELOPING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AND SINKING S/SE. HIGHEST COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS CT IN
VICINITY OF SURFACE TROUGH. GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWERS
WITH INVERTED V SOUNDING. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S.

UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO SINK SE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.
DIMINISHING SURFACE INSTABILITY AND CONVERGENCE SHOULD END ANY
SHOWER ACTIVITY...BUT MID-DECK SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGH APPEARS
TO SINK SOUTH OVER THE REGION. THIS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS SEVERAL
DEGREES MILDER SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A BLOCKY PATTERN LOOKS TO DOMINATE THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK
ACROSS THE CONUS. A LARGE PERSISTENT CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO PLAGUE THE NORTHEAST US THROUGH TUESDAY WHICH WILL
RESULT IN GENERALLY MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND SCT SHOWERS MON/MON
NIGHT AS SPOKES OF VORTICITY WITHIN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ROTATE THROUGH
THE AREA.

THIS CUTOFF FINALLY EXITS ON TUE WITH RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDING IN
TUE NIGHT AND WED. DRY CONDS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED.

MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS DIVERGENT WITH HOW QUICKLY THE RIDGE AXIS
MOVES THROUGH AND THE NEXT TROUGH APPROACHES. GFS IS FASTER THAN THE
EC. WHAT BOTH MODELS DO AGREE ON IS THE PHASING OF A NRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WITH A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS RESULTING IN A
DEEP TROUGH THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUE NIGHT. THE SFC LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CUTOFF TRACKS THROUGH THE GULF COAST STATES TO
OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST ON THU AND CONTINUES ON A NE TRACK
THROUGH FRI. HOWEVER DUE TO THE DIFFERENCES ALOFT THE EC IS
STRONGER...SLOWER AND CLOSER TO THE COAST...BUT CONTINUES TO REMAIN
WELL S OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE KEPT SCHC POPS ACROSS THE AREA THU
AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES DIVE DOWN FROM THE N DURING THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE PATTERN EARLIER IN THE
FORECAST...THIS IS VERY LOW CONFIDENCE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVELS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL GIVE WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
FROM THE NORTHWEST.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TURN TO THE NORTH OVERNIGHT. ONLY SOME MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE FORECAST OVERNIGHT. VFR.

DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...ANOTHER TROUGH DEVELOPS. NORTHERLY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED IN THE MORNING...THEN WINDS WILL VARY BASED ON
LOCATION DURING THE AFTERNOON. GENERALLY EXPECT NW WINDS FOR NJ
AND LOWER HUDSON VALLEY TERMINALS...WITH POTENTIAL W/SW OR SEA
BREEZE WIND FLOW TO THE EAST ON LONG ISLAND AND SRN CT. VFR WITH
BROKEN CU AND AC DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. A FEW
SHOWERS WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH...BUT GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH 00Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THU...
.SUN NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLE MVFR WITH SHOWERS EARLY EVE.
.MON-MON NIGHT...POSSIBLE MVFR WITH SHOWERS.
.TUE-WED NIGHT...VFR.
.THU...POSSIBLE MVFR WITH SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK PRES GRADIENT WILL KEEP SUB-ADVSY CONDS ACROSS THE WATERS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

MARGINAL NW GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE ON THE
EASTERN OCEAN WATERS AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR CTZ005>008-
     010>012.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NYZ067>070-079-
     081.
NJ...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NJZ002-004-103-
     105-107.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...PW



  [top]

000
FXUS61 KBOX 260153
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
953 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH
SPOTTY SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES. PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF NEXT
WEEK AS WELL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
953 PM UPDATE...

AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE PAST FEW NIGHT...CLOUDS WERE PLAYING A
SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS TIME OF NIGHT. LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL CLOUDS OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS HAS BROUGHT INTO QUESTION THE
POSSIBILITY FOR FROST FORMATION...AND THE NEED FOR THE FROST
ADVISORY ACROSS NORTHERN CT...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN RI
AND SOUTHEAST MA.

SATELLITE DATA ALSO SHOWED SOME CLEARING OVER SOUTHERN NH. OF ALL
THE NEAR-TERM GUIDANCE...THE LAV GUIDANCE WAS HANDLING THE SKY
COVER THE BEST. LEANED HEAVILY UPON IT WHEN MAKING ADJUSTMENTS
THIS EVENING. THE LAV ALSO CLEARED THE CLOUDS AWAY FROM SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE 04-06Z TIME FRAME. WITH LIGHT WINDS ALREADY...
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE EFFECTIVE WITH THE CLEAR SKIES. IN
CONSIDERATION OF ALL THE FACTORS...AND COLLABORATION WITH A
NEIGHBORING OFFICE...DECIDED TO LEAVE THE ADVISORY INTACT AT THIS
TIME.

MADE QUITE A FEW CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING DUE TO THE
CLOUDS AS WELL.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL RESULT IN
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT.  THIS WILL DROP MANY
LOCATIONS INTO BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE INTERIOR.  TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS NORTHERN CONNECTICUT...RHODE
ISLAND...AND SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS. BECAUSE THE GROWING
SEASON HAS BEGUN ACROSS THESE AREAS...WILL ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY
FOR THIS REGION. THERE IS ALSO A LOW PROBABILITY OF FROST
OCCURRING ALONG THE EAST COAST OF MASSACHUSETTS.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THERE SO HAVE HELD OFF ON ISSUING AN
ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY...THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO OUR
REGION. THUS WE WILL BE IN A MORE FAVORABLE POSITION FOR DIURNAL
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. SKIES SHOULD START OFF PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
THEN CLOUDS DEVELOP ALONG WITH A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS.  THESE SHOWERS
ARE MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE.  HIGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE IN THE 50S ONCE AGAIN...THOUGH IF ENOUGH SUN PEEKS THROUGH
THE CLOUDS...COULD SEE TEMPS NEAR 60 THROUGH THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY
AND IN PARTS OF RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND WITH THE UPPER LOW JUST EAST OF THE AREA.  WITH CLOUDY
SKIES AND RAIN SHOWERS...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE A BIT WARMER THAN
EITHER OF THE PREVIOUS TWO NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO THE
LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* RISK FOR SHOWERS AT TIMES BUT DRY MOST OF PERIOD
* LOW CONFIDENCE AFTER WEDNESDAY

OVERVIEW...PERSISTENT UPPER TROF OVER MARITIMES RETROGRADES EARLY
IN THE WEEK BEFORE MOVING BACK OFFSHORE. SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY
WHICH CAME ASHORE LAST NIGHT IN CA MAY PHASE WITH NORTHERN STREAM
ENERGY LATE IN THE WEEK. OPERATIONAL GFS DOES NOT SHOW PHASING.
THE 12Z ECMWF DOES SHOW PHASING LIKE ITS PREDECESSOR...BUT ALSO
LIKE ITS PRIOR RUN...STILL TAKES THE SURFACE LOW WELL SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND. THE ECMWF HAS SHOWN BETTER RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY AND ITS
12Z OPERATIONAL RUN SEEMS FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH ITS 00Z ENSEMBLE
MEAN. THE OPERATIONAL GFS RUNS SHOW LITTLE RUN TO RUN
CONTINUITY...AND ITS ENSEMBLES ARE WIDELY DISPERSED WITH MANY
MEMBERS SHOWING NO SURFACE LOW OFF THE MID ATLC COAST AND A FEW
OTHERS DEPICTING AN INTENSE COASTAL LOW JUST SE OF NEW ENGLAND.
ALTHOUGH OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS LOW AFTER WEDNESDAY...TEND TO HAVE
A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE ECMWF SOLUTION AT THIS TIME GIVEN
ITS BETTER INTERNAL CONSISTENCY.

DETAILS...

MONDAY...UPPER LOW RETROGRADES TO THE WEST AND INDUCES SOME LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND A COLD POOL ALOFT THAT SUPPORTS
SHOWERS. HAVE POPS GENERALLY AROUND 40 PERCENT BUT THINKING THAT
FUTURE SHIFTS MAY WISH TO INCREASE THOSE IF FUTURE MODEL RUNS REMAIN
CONSISTENT. NOTED THAT TOTAL TOTALS WERE NEAR 50...REFLECTIVE OF THE
COLD POOL ALOFT.

MONDAY NIGHT...MAY SEE SHOWERS LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE
GRADUALLY DISSIPATING AND UPPER TROF STARTS TO SHIFT SE IN ADDITION
TO LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

TUESDAY...HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE AFTERNOON IN
THE EAST GIVEN SOME LINGERING MOISTURE...CYCLONIC FLOW AND PROXIMITY
OF COLD POOL ALOFT.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WEDNESDAY IS LOOKING DRY FOR NOW. GFS
BRINGS UPPER SHORT WAVE TOWARD NEW ENGLAND LATE IN DAY/EVENING BUT
ECMWF HOLDS IT BACK. ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY THAT HAVE JUST LOW END
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY FOR THIS
PERIOD DEPENDENT UPON EVOLUTION OF PROBABLE LOW DEVELOPMENT OFF THE
MID ATLC COAST. THE ECMWF SHOWS BEST CONSISTENCY RUN TO RUN AND WITH
ITS ENSEMBLES SO LEANING IN THAT DIRECTION FOR THE MOMENT. THIS
WOULD SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL OF A SIGNIFICANT SURFACE LOW FORMING
NEAR THE MID ATLC COAST BUT PROBABLY REMAINING SE OF NEW ENGLAND.

IT IS POSSIBLE THAT BY SATURDAY WILL SEE BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND
INCREASING THICKNESSES AS A RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE OH VALLEY AND
ATTEMPTS TO BUILD TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. THIS MAY SIGNAL THE START OF A
WARMER PERIOD FOR THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. CONTINUE TO EXPECT VFR WITH LIGHT
WINDS.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS. SEA BREEZES
LIKELY. POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR IN SPOTTY SHOWERS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS. POSSIBLE
BRIEF MVFR IN SPOTTY SHOWERS.

KBOS TAF...GENERALLY HIGH CONFIDENCE. SEA BREEZE DEVELOPED LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. ANTICIPATE LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW TO REDEVELOP AROUND
OR VERY SHORTLY AFTER 01Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THOUGH THURSDAY...

MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...VFR MOST OF THE TIME BUT AREAS OF MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE. ADJUSTED SEAS SLIGHTLY UP ACROSS THE OUTER SOUTH
COASTAL WATERS AS WELL AS MASS BAY PER LATEST OBSERVATIONS BUT NOT
A CONCERN AS SEAS REVERTING BACK TO LARGELY A GENTLE SWELL
OVERNIGHT. QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD
WITH WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM TIME TO TIME THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT BUT SHOULD
BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST FOR MUCH OF THE TIME.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THOUGHT THURSDAY...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

ENOUGH NORTHERLY GRADIENT ANTICIPATED MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING
THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MIGHT BE MET...ESPECIALLY
COASTAL WATERS TO THE EAST. MAY TAKE UNTIL TUE EVENING BEFORE SEAS
SUBSIDE BACK BELOW 5 FEET.

OFFSHORE LOW MAY BRING INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS...PERHAPS NEAR OR
ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS...TO THE OUTER SOUTH COASTAL
WATERS LATE THU OR THU NIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THE WIND FIELD FOR THAT TIME FRAME GIVEN HIGHER THAN
AVERAGE NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION MODEL UNCERTAINTIES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR MAZ017-018.
RI...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR RIZ001-003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...BELK/RLG/THOMPSON
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...THOMPSON
AVIATION...RLG/THOMPSON
MARINE...RLG/THOMPSON




000
FXUS61 KALY 252327
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
727 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LEVEL STORM IN THE GULF OF MAINE WILL WOBBLE BACK INTO
MAINE ON SUNDAY...WHICH WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 727 PM EDT...CLOUD COVER EARLY THIS EVENING LOCATED FROM
AROUND THE CAPITAL DISTRICT NORTHWARD WITH SOME BREAKS...WHILE
THERE ARE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TO THE SOUTH. CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY
START TO INCREASE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...AS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF OF MAINE BEGINS TO WOBBLE
WESTWARD AND BRINGS AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE. IT WILL BE A CHILLY
NIGHT AGAIN WITH LOWS 25 TO 35.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF CONTINUES TO SHIFT SLOWLY WESTWARD ON
SUNDAY...CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN MOST AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN A MUCH BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON MONDAY AS
THE UPPER LOW GETS RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE REGION. HAVE FORECAST
35 TO 50 PERCENT POPS ON MONDAY FOR MOST OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY...EASTWARD TO THE BERKSHIRES AND NW CT. LIKELY POPS ARE
FORECAST FROM THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS TO THE LAKE GEORGE
AREA...THE ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK VALLEY AND EASTERN CATSKILLS. THE
LOW WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
AND HAVE FORECAST POPS TO LOWER TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN ALL AREAS BY
LATE AT NIGHT.

ONCE CLOUDS INCREASE TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ON SUNDAY...EXPECT SKY COVER
TO REMAIN CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MONDAY...THEN START TO
SLOWLY DECREASE MONDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN COOL DURING THE PERIOD...AND WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS FOR THE
SHOWERS TO FALL AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW OR JUST SNOW IN HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS. LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. HIGHS SUNDAY
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 30S TO
AROUND 40. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S ONCE AGAIN. LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH THE CUT-OFF LOW STILL POTENTIALLY
IMPACTING OUR REGION. HOWEVER...IT NOW LOOKS AS IF SOUTHERN STREAM
ENERGY WILL NOT PHASE WITH THIS FEATURE. ALL OF THE LONG RANGE
FORECAST MODELS INDICATED THE NORTHERN STREAM CUTOFF LOW WILL BEGIN
TO SLOWLY EXIT ON TUESDAY...BUT THERE STILL COULD BE SOME UPSLOPE
SHOWERS TO THE EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY SO CONTINUED THE IDEA OF
POPS IN THAT AREA ON TUESDAY. THERE MIGHT ALSO BE A FEW LIGHT RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WITH A LITTLE MOISTURE OFF
LAKE ONTARIO.

THEN...THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW LOOKS TO BECOME WEAKLY
ANTICYCLONIC BY WEDNESDAY. THE 12Z GFS HAD A WEAK COLD FRONT
WORKING ACROSS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY...BUT CANADIAN AND
EUROPEAN MODELS DID NOT HAVE THIS FEATURE ARRIVING UNTIL EARLY
THURSDAY.

WE WILL KEEP WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY DRY WITH THE CHANCE FOR MAINLY
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. BY SATURDAY...THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT A RIDGE COULD START BUILDING INTO OUR REGION FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY WHICH WOULD BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES.

UNTIL THAT TIME...TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE CLOSE TO
NORMAL WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN....LOWER 60S TO UPPER 60S VALLEY LOCATIONS. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S MOUNTAINS AND COLDEST
SHELTERED VALLEYS...LOWER TO MID 40S MOST OTHER PLACES. BY NEXT
SATURDAY...WE GO WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 IN THE VALLEYS...60S HIGHER
TERRAIN.

PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE BELOW NORMAL DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS
ANY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS THAT TAKE PLACE LOOK LIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WILL GRADUALLY BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO OUR REGION THROUGH
SUNDAY. INITIALLY THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM...SO JUST INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS IN VFR RANGE
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z MONDAY. TONIGHT IT APPEARS THE CLOUD
LINE WILL BE FROM AROUND KALB/KPSF NORTHWARD TO KGFL...WHILE KPOU
REMAINS MOSTLY CLEAR.

WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST LESS THAN 5 KTS TONIGHT...INCREASING
TO AROUND 6-8 KTS SUNDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT...RH VALUES WILL RECOVER TO BETWEEN
70 AND 90 PERCENT.

THERE WILL BE A FURTHER INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE ON
SUNDAY...ALONG WITH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FROM LATE SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ELEVATED WITH MINIMUM
VALUES ON SUNDAY RANGING FROM 35 TO 45 PERCENT...THEN 40 TO 60
PERCENT ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION. ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION
WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR
HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA /HSA/.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/JPV
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/BGM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM




000
FXUS61 KALY 252327
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
727 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LEVEL STORM IN THE GULF OF MAINE WILL WOBBLE BACK INTO
MAINE ON SUNDAY...WHICH WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 727 PM EDT...CLOUD COVER EARLY THIS EVENING LOCATED FROM
AROUND THE CAPITAL DISTRICT NORTHWARD WITH SOME BREAKS...WHILE
THERE ARE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TO THE SOUTH. CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY
START TO INCREASE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...AS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF OF MAINE BEGINS TO WOBBLE
WESTWARD AND BRINGS AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE. IT WILL BE A CHILLY
NIGHT AGAIN WITH LOWS 25 TO 35.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF CONTINUES TO SHIFT SLOWLY WESTWARD ON
SUNDAY...CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN MOST AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN A MUCH BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON MONDAY AS
THE UPPER LOW GETS RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE REGION. HAVE FORECAST
35 TO 50 PERCENT POPS ON MONDAY FOR MOST OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY...EASTWARD TO THE BERKSHIRES AND NW CT. LIKELY POPS ARE
FORECAST FROM THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS TO THE LAKE GEORGE
AREA...THE ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK VALLEY AND EASTERN CATSKILLS. THE
LOW WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
AND HAVE FORECAST POPS TO LOWER TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN ALL AREAS BY
LATE AT NIGHT.

ONCE CLOUDS INCREASE TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ON SUNDAY...EXPECT SKY COVER
TO REMAIN CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MONDAY...THEN START TO
SLOWLY DECREASE MONDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN COOL DURING THE PERIOD...AND WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS FOR THE
SHOWERS TO FALL AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW OR JUST SNOW IN HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS. LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. HIGHS SUNDAY
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 30S TO
AROUND 40. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S ONCE AGAIN. LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH THE CUT-OFF LOW STILL POTENTIALLY
IMPACTING OUR REGION. HOWEVER...IT NOW LOOKS AS IF SOUTHERN STREAM
ENERGY WILL NOT PHASE WITH THIS FEATURE. ALL OF THE LONG RANGE
FORECAST MODELS INDICATED THE NORTHERN STREAM CUTOFF LOW WILL BEGIN
TO SLOWLY EXIT ON TUESDAY...BUT THERE STILL COULD BE SOME UPSLOPE
SHOWERS TO THE EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY SO CONTINUED THE IDEA OF
POPS IN THAT AREA ON TUESDAY. THERE MIGHT ALSO BE A FEW LIGHT RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WITH A LITTLE MOISTURE OFF
LAKE ONTARIO.

THEN...THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW LOOKS TO BECOME WEAKLY
ANTICYCLONIC BY WEDNESDAY. THE 12Z GFS HAD A WEAK COLD FRONT
WORKING ACROSS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY...BUT CANADIAN AND
EUROPEAN MODELS DID NOT HAVE THIS FEATURE ARRIVING UNTIL EARLY
THURSDAY.

WE WILL KEEP WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY DRY WITH THE CHANCE FOR MAINLY
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. BY SATURDAY...THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT A RIDGE COULD START BUILDING INTO OUR REGION FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY WHICH WOULD BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES.

UNTIL THAT TIME...TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE CLOSE TO
NORMAL WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN....LOWER 60S TO UPPER 60S VALLEY LOCATIONS. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S MOUNTAINS AND COLDEST
SHELTERED VALLEYS...LOWER TO MID 40S MOST OTHER PLACES. BY NEXT
SATURDAY...WE GO WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 IN THE VALLEYS...60S HIGHER
TERRAIN.

PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE BELOW NORMAL DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS
ANY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS THAT TAKE PLACE LOOK LIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WILL GRADUALLY BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO OUR REGION THROUGH
SUNDAY. INITIALLY THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM...SO JUST INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS IN VFR RANGE
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z MONDAY. TONIGHT IT APPEARS THE CLOUD
LINE WILL BE FROM AROUND KALB/KPSF NORTHWARD TO KGFL...WHILE KPOU
REMAINS MOSTLY CLEAR.

WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST LESS THAN 5 KTS TONIGHT...INCREASING
TO AROUND 6-8 KTS SUNDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT...RH VALUES WILL RECOVER TO BETWEEN
70 AND 90 PERCENT.

THERE WILL BE A FURTHER INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE ON
SUNDAY...ALONG WITH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FROM LATE SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ELEVATED WITH MINIMUM
VALUES ON SUNDAY RANGING FROM 35 TO 45 PERCENT...THEN 40 TO 60
PERCENT ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION. ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION
WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR
HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA /HSA/.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/JPV
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/BGM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM




000
FXUS61 KALY 252327
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
727 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LEVEL STORM IN THE GULF OF MAINE WILL WOBBLE BACK INTO
MAINE ON SUNDAY...WHICH WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 727 PM EDT...CLOUD COVER EARLY THIS EVENING LOCATED FROM
AROUND THE CAPITAL DISTRICT NORTHWARD WITH SOME BREAKS...WHILE
THERE ARE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TO THE SOUTH. CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY
START TO INCREASE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...AS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF OF MAINE BEGINS TO WOBBLE
WESTWARD AND BRINGS AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE. IT WILL BE A CHILLY
NIGHT AGAIN WITH LOWS 25 TO 35.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF CONTINUES TO SHIFT SLOWLY WESTWARD ON
SUNDAY...CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN MOST AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN A MUCH BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON MONDAY AS
THE UPPER LOW GETS RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE REGION. HAVE FORECAST
35 TO 50 PERCENT POPS ON MONDAY FOR MOST OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY...EASTWARD TO THE BERKSHIRES AND NW CT. LIKELY POPS ARE
FORECAST FROM THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS TO THE LAKE GEORGE
AREA...THE ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK VALLEY AND EASTERN CATSKILLS. THE
LOW WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
AND HAVE FORECAST POPS TO LOWER TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN ALL AREAS BY
LATE AT NIGHT.

ONCE CLOUDS INCREASE TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ON SUNDAY...EXPECT SKY COVER
TO REMAIN CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MONDAY...THEN START TO
SLOWLY DECREASE MONDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN COOL DURING THE PERIOD...AND WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS FOR THE
SHOWERS TO FALL AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW OR JUST SNOW IN HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS. LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. HIGHS SUNDAY
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 30S TO
AROUND 40. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S ONCE AGAIN. LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH THE CUT-OFF LOW STILL POTENTIALLY
IMPACTING OUR REGION. HOWEVER...IT NOW LOOKS AS IF SOUTHERN STREAM
ENERGY WILL NOT PHASE WITH THIS FEATURE. ALL OF THE LONG RANGE
FORECAST MODELS INDICATED THE NORTHERN STREAM CUTOFF LOW WILL BEGIN
TO SLOWLY EXIT ON TUESDAY...BUT THERE STILL COULD BE SOME UPSLOPE
SHOWERS TO THE EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY SO CONTINUED THE IDEA OF
POPS IN THAT AREA ON TUESDAY. THERE MIGHT ALSO BE A FEW LIGHT RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WITH A LITTLE MOISTURE OFF
LAKE ONTARIO.

THEN...THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW LOOKS TO BECOME WEAKLY
ANTICYCLONIC BY WEDNESDAY. THE 12Z GFS HAD A WEAK COLD FRONT
WORKING ACROSS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY...BUT CANADIAN AND
EUROPEAN MODELS DID NOT HAVE THIS FEATURE ARRIVING UNTIL EARLY
THURSDAY.

WE WILL KEEP WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY DRY WITH THE CHANCE FOR MAINLY
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. BY SATURDAY...THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT A RIDGE COULD START BUILDING INTO OUR REGION FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY WHICH WOULD BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES.

UNTIL THAT TIME...TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE CLOSE TO
NORMAL WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN....LOWER 60S TO UPPER 60S VALLEY LOCATIONS. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S MOUNTAINS AND COLDEST
SHELTERED VALLEYS...LOWER TO MID 40S MOST OTHER PLACES. BY NEXT
SATURDAY...WE GO WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 IN THE VALLEYS...60S HIGHER
TERRAIN.

PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE BELOW NORMAL DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS
ANY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS THAT TAKE PLACE LOOK LIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WILL GRADUALLY BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO OUR REGION THROUGH
SUNDAY. INITIALLY THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM...SO JUST INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS IN VFR RANGE
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z MONDAY. TONIGHT IT APPEARS THE CLOUD
LINE WILL BE FROM AROUND KALB/KPSF NORTHWARD TO KGFL...WHILE KPOU
REMAINS MOSTLY CLEAR.

WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST LESS THAN 5 KTS TONIGHT...INCREASING
TO AROUND 6-8 KTS SUNDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT...RH VALUES WILL RECOVER TO BETWEEN
70 AND 90 PERCENT.

THERE WILL BE A FURTHER INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE ON
SUNDAY...ALONG WITH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FROM LATE SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ELEVATED WITH MINIMUM
VALUES ON SUNDAY RANGING FROM 35 TO 45 PERCENT...THEN 40 TO 60
PERCENT ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION. ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION
WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR
HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA /HSA/.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/JPV
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/BGM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM



000
FXUS61 KOKX 252320
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
720 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PERSIST OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF COAST STATES WILL TRACK TO
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY THURSDAY AND CONTINUING NORTHEAST INTO
THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MAY IMPACT THE AREA ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST IS ON TRACK. JUST FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY T/TD AND MADE
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY FORECAST WITH CIRRUS OHD AND EXPECTED
TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...UPPER LOW ELONGATES INTO
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT...WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE
OHIO/TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON/EVE SLIDING TO THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST BY DAYBREAK. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE REGION BEING
IN AN AREA OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BETWEEN THE CANADIAN MARITIME LOW
AND LOW PRESSURE SLIDING THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.

DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS. THE CAVEAT WILL BE NORTHERN EXTENT OF
CIRRUS SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TO THE SOUTH. MODELS ARE
GENERALLY KEEPING THIS CIRRUS SHIELD SKIRTING SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE REGION. SO HIGH POTENTIAL FOR FROST CONDITIONS ACROSS INTERIOR
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND CT AREAS TONIGHT...WITH A SLIGHTLY MODERATED
POTENTIAL ACROSS INTERIOR NE NJ AND EASTERN LI DUE TO CIRRUS
POTENTIAL. WILL ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUN
MORNING FOR THESE REGIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BEGINS TO PIVOTS
SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY...WITH WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
REFLECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN.

DAYTIME INSTABILITY...STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND
CONVERGENCE ALONG SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SCT-BKN AFT/EVE
INSTABILITY CU AND ISO-SCT SHOWER DEVELOPING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AND SINKING S/SE. HIGHEST COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS CT IN
VICINITY OF SURFACE TROUGH. GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWERS
WITH INVERTED V SOUNDING. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S.

UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO SINK SE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.
DIMINISHING SURFACE INSTABILITY AND CONVERGENCE SHOULD END ANY
SHOWER ACTIVITY...BUT MID-DECK SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGH APPEARS
TO SINK SOUTH OVER THE REGION. THIS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS SEVERAL
DEGREES MILDER SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A BLOCKY PATTERN LOOKS TO DOMINATE THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK
ACROSS THE CONUS. A LARGE PERSISTENT CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO PLAGUE THE NORTHEAST US THROUGH TUESDAY WHICH WILL
RESULT IN GENERALLY MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND SCT SHOWERS MON/MON
NIGHT AS SPOKES OF VORTICITY WITHIN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ROTATE THROUGH
THE AREA.

THIS CUTOFF FINALLY EXITS ON TUE WITH RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDING IN
TUE NIGHT AND WED. DRY CONDS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED.

MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS DIVERGENT WITH HOW QUICKLY THE RIDGE AXIS
MOVES THROUGH AND THE NEXT TROUGH APPROACHES. GFS IS FASTER THAN THE
EC. WHAT BOTH MODELS DO AGREE ON IS THE PHASING OF A NRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WITH A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS RESULTING IN A
DEEP TROUGH THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUE NIGHT. THE SFC LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CUTOFF TRACKS THROUGH THE GULF COAST STATES TO
OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST ON THU AND CONTINUES ON A NE TRACK
THROUGH FRI. HOWEVER DUE TO THE DIFFERENCES ALOFT THE EC IS
STRONGER...SLOWER AND CLOSER TO THE COAST...BUT CONTINUES TO REMAIN
WELL S OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE KEPT SCHC POPS ACROSS THE AREA THU
AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES DIVE DOWN FROM THE N DURING THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE PATTERN EARLIER IN THE
FORECAST...THIS IS VERY LOW CONFIDENCE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVELS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL GIVE WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
FROM THE NORTHWEST.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TURN TO THE NORTHWEST...THEN NORTH LATER
THIS EVENING. ONLY HIGH CLOUDS ARE FORECAST OVERNIGHT. VFR.

DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...ANOTHER TROUGH DEVELOPS. NORTHERLY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED IN THE MORNING...THEN WINDS WILL VARY BASED ON
LOCATION DURING THE AFTERNOON. GENERALLY EXPECT NW WINDS FOR NJ
AND LOWER HUDSON VALLEY TERMINALS...WITH POTENTIAL W/SW OR SEA
BREEZE WIND FLOW TO THE EAST ON LONG ISLAND AND SRN CT. VFR WITH
BROKEN CU AND AC DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. A FEW
SHOWERS WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH...BUT GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH 00Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THU...
.SUN NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLE MVFR WITH SHOWERS EARLY EVE.
.MON-MON NIGHT...POSSIBLE MVFR WITH SHOWERS.
.TUE-WED NIGHT...VFR.
.THU...POSSIBLE MVFR WITH SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
MARGINAL SCA GUSTS ACROSS EASTERN LI SOUND AND ROUGH WATER NEAR
THE RACE THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE A WEAK PRES GRADIENT WILL
KEEP SUB-ADVSY CONDS ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

MARGINAL NW GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE ON THE
EASTERN OCEAN WATERS AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR CTZ005>008-
     010>012.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NYZ067>070-079-
     081.
NJ...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NJZ002-004-103-
     105-107.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KOKX 252320
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
720 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PERSIST OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF COAST STATES WILL TRACK TO
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY THURSDAY AND CONTINUING NORTHEAST INTO
THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MAY IMPACT THE AREA ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST IS ON TRACK. JUST FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY T/TD AND MADE
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY FORECAST WITH CIRRUS OHD AND EXPECTED
TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...UPPER LOW ELONGATES INTO
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT...WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE
OHIO/TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON/EVE SLIDING TO THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST BY DAYBREAK. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE REGION BEING
IN AN AREA OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BETWEEN THE CANADIAN MARITIME LOW
AND LOW PRESSURE SLIDING THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.

DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS. THE CAVEAT WILL BE NORTHERN EXTENT OF
CIRRUS SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TO THE SOUTH. MODELS ARE
GENERALLY KEEPING THIS CIRRUS SHIELD SKIRTING SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE REGION. SO HIGH POTENTIAL FOR FROST CONDITIONS ACROSS INTERIOR
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND CT AREAS TONIGHT...WITH A SLIGHTLY MODERATED
POTENTIAL ACROSS INTERIOR NE NJ AND EASTERN LI DUE TO CIRRUS
POTENTIAL. WILL ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUN
MORNING FOR THESE REGIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BEGINS TO PIVOTS
SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY...WITH WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
REFLECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN.

DAYTIME INSTABILITY...STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND
CONVERGENCE ALONG SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SCT-BKN AFT/EVE
INSTABILITY CU AND ISO-SCT SHOWER DEVELOPING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AND SINKING S/SE. HIGHEST COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS CT IN
VICINITY OF SURFACE TROUGH. GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWERS
WITH INVERTED V SOUNDING. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S.

UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO SINK SE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.
DIMINISHING SURFACE INSTABILITY AND CONVERGENCE SHOULD END ANY
SHOWER ACTIVITY...BUT MID-DECK SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGH APPEARS
TO SINK SOUTH OVER THE REGION. THIS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS SEVERAL
DEGREES MILDER SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A BLOCKY PATTERN LOOKS TO DOMINATE THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK
ACROSS THE CONUS. A LARGE PERSISTENT CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO PLAGUE THE NORTHEAST US THROUGH TUESDAY WHICH WILL
RESULT IN GENERALLY MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND SCT SHOWERS MON/MON
NIGHT AS SPOKES OF VORTICITY WITHIN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ROTATE THROUGH
THE AREA.

THIS CUTOFF FINALLY EXITS ON TUE WITH RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDING IN
TUE NIGHT AND WED. DRY CONDS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED.

MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS DIVERGENT WITH HOW QUICKLY THE RIDGE AXIS
MOVES THROUGH AND THE NEXT TROUGH APPROACHES. GFS IS FASTER THAN THE
EC. WHAT BOTH MODELS DO AGREE ON IS THE PHASING OF A NRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WITH A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS RESULTING IN A
DEEP TROUGH THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUE NIGHT. THE SFC LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CUTOFF TRACKS THROUGH THE GULF COAST STATES TO
OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST ON THU AND CONTINUES ON A NE TRACK
THROUGH FRI. HOWEVER DUE TO THE DIFFERENCES ALOFT THE EC IS
STRONGER...SLOWER AND CLOSER TO THE COAST...BUT CONTINUES TO REMAIN
WELL S OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE KEPT SCHC POPS ACROSS THE AREA THU
AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES DIVE DOWN FROM THE N DURING THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE PATTERN EARLIER IN THE
FORECAST...THIS IS VERY LOW CONFIDENCE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVELS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL GIVE WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
FROM THE NORTHWEST.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TURN TO THE NORTHWEST...THEN NORTH LATER
THIS EVENING. ONLY HIGH CLOUDS ARE FORECAST OVERNIGHT. VFR.

DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...ANOTHER TROUGH DEVELOPS. NORTHERLY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED IN THE MORNING...THEN WINDS WILL VARY BASED ON
LOCATION DURING THE AFTERNOON. GENERALLY EXPECT NW WINDS FOR NJ
AND LOWER HUDSON VALLEY TERMINALS...WITH POTENTIAL W/SW OR SEA
BREEZE WIND FLOW TO THE EAST ON LONG ISLAND AND SRN CT. VFR WITH
BROKEN CU AND AC DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. A FEW
SHOWERS WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH...BUT GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH 00Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THU...
.SUN NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLE MVFR WITH SHOWERS EARLY EVE.
.MON-MON NIGHT...POSSIBLE MVFR WITH SHOWERS.
.TUE-WED NIGHT...VFR.
.THU...POSSIBLE MVFR WITH SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
MARGINAL SCA GUSTS ACROSS EASTERN LI SOUND AND ROUGH WATER NEAR
THE RACE THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE A WEAK PRES GRADIENT WILL
KEEP SUB-ADVSY CONDS ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

MARGINAL NW GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE ON THE
EASTERN OCEAN WATERS AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR CTZ005>008-
     010>012.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NYZ067>070-079-
     081.
NJ...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NJZ002-004-103-
     105-107.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KOKX 252320
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
720 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PERSIST OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF COAST STATES WILL TRACK TO
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY THURSDAY AND CONTINUING NORTHEAST INTO
THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MAY IMPACT THE AREA ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST IS ON TRACK. JUST FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY T/TD AND MADE
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY FORECAST WITH CIRRUS OHD AND EXPECTED
TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...UPPER LOW ELONGATES INTO
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT...WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE
OHIO/TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON/EVE SLIDING TO THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST BY DAYBREAK. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE REGION BEING
IN AN AREA OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BETWEEN THE CANADIAN MARITIME LOW
AND LOW PRESSURE SLIDING THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.

DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS. THE CAVEAT WILL BE NORTHERN EXTENT OF
CIRRUS SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TO THE SOUTH. MODELS ARE
GENERALLY KEEPING THIS CIRRUS SHIELD SKIRTING SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE REGION. SO HIGH POTENTIAL FOR FROST CONDITIONS ACROSS INTERIOR
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND CT AREAS TONIGHT...WITH A SLIGHTLY MODERATED
POTENTIAL ACROSS INTERIOR NE NJ AND EASTERN LI DUE TO CIRRUS
POTENTIAL. WILL ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUN
MORNING FOR THESE REGIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BEGINS TO PIVOTS
SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY...WITH WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
REFLECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN.

DAYTIME INSTABILITY...STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND
CONVERGENCE ALONG SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SCT-BKN AFT/EVE
INSTABILITY CU AND ISO-SCT SHOWER DEVELOPING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AND SINKING S/SE. HIGHEST COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS CT IN
VICINITY OF SURFACE TROUGH. GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWERS
WITH INVERTED V SOUNDING. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S.

UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO SINK SE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.
DIMINISHING SURFACE INSTABILITY AND CONVERGENCE SHOULD END ANY
SHOWER ACTIVITY...BUT MID-DECK SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGH APPEARS
TO SINK SOUTH OVER THE REGION. THIS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS SEVERAL
DEGREES MILDER SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A BLOCKY PATTERN LOOKS TO DOMINATE THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK
ACROSS THE CONUS. A LARGE PERSISTENT CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO PLAGUE THE NORTHEAST US THROUGH TUESDAY WHICH WILL
RESULT IN GENERALLY MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND SCT SHOWERS MON/MON
NIGHT AS SPOKES OF VORTICITY WITHIN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ROTATE THROUGH
THE AREA.

THIS CUTOFF FINALLY EXITS ON TUE WITH RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDING IN
TUE NIGHT AND WED. DRY CONDS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED.

MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS DIVERGENT WITH HOW QUICKLY THE RIDGE AXIS
MOVES THROUGH AND THE NEXT TROUGH APPROACHES. GFS IS FASTER THAN THE
EC. WHAT BOTH MODELS DO AGREE ON IS THE PHASING OF A NRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WITH A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS RESULTING IN A
DEEP TROUGH THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUE NIGHT. THE SFC LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CUTOFF TRACKS THROUGH THE GULF COAST STATES TO
OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST ON THU AND CONTINUES ON A NE TRACK
THROUGH FRI. HOWEVER DUE TO THE DIFFERENCES ALOFT THE EC IS
STRONGER...SLOWER AND CLOSER TO THE COAST...BUT CONTINUES TO REMAIN
WELL S OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE KEPT SCHC POPS ACROSS THE AREA THU
AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES DIVE DOWN FROM THE N DURING THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE PATTERN EARLIER IN THE
FORECAST...THIS IS VERY LOW CONFIDENCE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVELS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL GIVE WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
FROM THE NORTHWEST.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TURN TO THE NORTHWEST...THEN NORTH LATER
THIS EVENING. ONLY HIGH CLOUDS ARE FORECAST OVERNIGHT. VFR.

DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...ANOTHER TROUGH DEVELOPS. NORTHERLY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED IN THE MORNING...THEN WINDS WILL VARY BASED ON
LOCATION DURING THE AFTERNOON. GENERALLY EXPECT NW WINDS FOR NJ
AND LOWER HUDSON VALLEY TERMINALS...WITH POTENTIAL W/SW OR SEA
BREEZE WIND FLOW TO THE EAST ON LONG ISLAND AND SRN CT. VFR WITH
BROKEN CU AND AC DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. A FEW
SHOWERS WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH...BUT GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH 00Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THU...
.SUN NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLE MVFR WITH SHOWERS EARLY EVE.
.MON-MON NIGHT...POSSIBLE MVFR WITH SHOWERS.
.TUE-WED NIGHT...VFR.
.THU...POSSIBLE MVFR WITH SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
MARGINAL SCA GUSTS ACROSS EASTERN LI SOUND AND ROUGH WATER NEAR
THE RACE THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE A WEAK PRES GRADIENT WILL
KEEP SUB-ADVSY CONDS ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

MARGINAL NW GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE ON THE
EASTERN OCEAN WATERS AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR CTZ005>008-
     010>012.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NYZ067>070-079-
     081.
NJ...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NJZ002-004-103-
     105-107.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KOKX 252320
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
720 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PERSIST OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF COAST STATES WILL TRACK TO
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY THURSDAY AND CONTINUING NORTHEAST INTO
THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MAY IMPACT THE AREA ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST IS ON TRACK. JUST FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY T/TD AND MADE
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY FORECAST WITH CIRRUS OHD AND EXPECTED
TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...UPPER LOW ELONGATES INTO
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT...WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE
OHIO/TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON/EVE SLIDING TO THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST BY DAYBREAK. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE REGION BEING
IN AN AREA OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BETWEEN THE CANADIAN MARITIME LOW
AND LOW PRESSURE SLIDING THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.

DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS. THE CAVEAT WILL BE NORTHERN EXTENT OF
CIRRUS SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TO THE SOUTH. MODELS ARE
GENERALLY KEEPING THIS CIRRUS SHIELD SKIRTING SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE REGION. SO HIGH POTENTIAL FOR FROST CONDITIONS ACROSS INTERIOR
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND CT AREAS TONIGHT...WITH A SLIGHTLY MODERATED
POTENTIAL ACROSS INTERIOR NE NJ AND EASTERN LI DUE TO CIRRUS
POTENTIAL. WILL ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUN
MORNING FOR THESE REGIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BEGINS TO PIVOTS
SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY...WITH WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
REFLECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN.

DAYTIME INSTABILITY...STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND
CONVERGENCE ALONG SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SCT-BKN AFT/EVE
INSTABILITY CU AND ISO-SCT SHOWER DEVELOPING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AND SINKING S/SE. HIGHEST COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS CT IN
VICINITY OF SURFACE TROUGH. GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWERS
WITH INVERTED V SOUNDING. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S.

UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO SINK SE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.
DIMINISHING SURFACE INSTABILITY AND CONVERGENCE SHOULD END ANY
SHOWER ACTIVITY...BUT MID-DECK SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGH APPEARS
TO SINK SOUTH OVER THE REGION. THIS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS SEVERAL
DEGREES MILDER SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A BLOCKY PATTERN LOOKS TO DOMINATE THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK
ACROSS THE CONUS. A LARGE PERSISTENT CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO PLAGUE THE NORTHEAST US THROUGH TUESDAY WHICH WILL
RESULT IN GENERALLY MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND SCT SHOWERS MON/MON
NIGHT AS SPOKES OF VORTICITY WITHIN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ROTATE THROUGH
THE AREA.

THIS CUTOFF FINALLY EXITS ON TUE WITH RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDING IN
TUE NIGHT AND WED. DRY CONDS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED.

MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS DIVERGENT WITH HOW QUICKLY THE RIDGE AXIS
MOVES THROUGH AND THE NEXT TROUGH APPROACHES. GFS IS FASTER THAN THE
EC. WHAT BOTH MODELS DO AGREE ON IS THE PHASING OF A NRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WITH A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS RESULTING IN A
DEEP TROUGH THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUE NIGHT. THE SFC LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CUTOFF TRACKS THROUGH THE GULF COAST STATES TO
OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST ON THU AND CONTINUES ON A NE TRACK
THROUGH FRI. HOWEVER DUE TO THE DIFFERENCES ALOFT THE EC IS
STRONGER...SLOWER AND CLOSER TO THE COAST...BUT CONTINUES TO REMAIN
WELL S OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE KEPT SCHC POPS ACROSS THE AREA THU
AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES DIVE DOWN FROM THE N DURING THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE PATTERN EARLIER IN THE
FORECAST...THIS IS VERY LOW CONFIDENCE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVELS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL GIVE WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
FROM THE NORTHWEST.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TURN TO THE NORTHWEST...THEN NORTH LATER
THIS EVENING. ONLY HIGH CLOUDS ARE FORECAST OVERNIGHT. VFR.

DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...ANOTHER TROUGH DEVELOPS. NORTHERLY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED IN THE MORNING...THEN WINDS WILL VARY BASED ON
LOCATION DURING THE AFTERNOON. GENERALLY EXPECT NW WINDS FOR NJ
AND LOWER HUDSON VALLEY TERMINALS...WITH POTENTIAL W/SW OR SEA
BREEZE WIND FLOW TO THE EAST ON LONG ISLAND AND SRN CT. VFR WITH
BROKEN CU AND AC DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. A FEW
SHOWERS WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH...BUT GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH 00Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THU...
.SUN NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLE MVFR WITH SHOWERS EARLY EVE.
.MON-MON NIGHT...POSSIBLE MVFR WITH SHOWERS.
.TUE-WED NIGHT...VFR.
.THU...POSSIBLE MVFR WITH SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
MARGINAL SCA GUSTS ACROSS EASTERN LI SOUND AND ROUGH WATER NEAR
THE RACE THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE A WEAK PRES GRADIENT WILL
KEEP SUB-ADVSY CONDS ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

MARGINAL NW GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE ON THE
EASTERN OCEAN WATERS AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR CTZ005>008-
     010>012.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NYZ067>070-079-
     081.
NJ...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NJZ002-004-103-
     105-107.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KBOX 252308
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
708 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH
SPOTTY SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES. PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF NEXT
WEEK AS WELL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
7 PM UPDATE...MID LEVEL CLOUDS COVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA NE
OF A PSF-WST LINE AT 00Z...BUT THESE CLOUDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO
THIN OUT BY AROUND MIDNIGHT AND ALLOW FOR FAIRLY ROBUST
RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT. IF THESE CLOUDS TAKE LONGER TO
DISSIPATE THAN ANTICIPATED...THEN IT MIGHT BE NECESSARY TO TAKE
ANOTHER LOOK AT OVERNIGHT PROJECTED LOW TEMPERATURES AND FROST
ADVISORY. ANOTHER ISSUE EARLY THIS EVENING IS PROGRESSION OF SEA
BREEZE TO THE IMMEDIATE BOS SHORELINE. ANTICIPATE THE A LIGHT
OFFSHORE FLOW TO BECOME REESTABLISHED AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 01Z.

330 PM UPDATE...CLOUDS HAVE STREAMED DOWN THE EAST COAST OF
MASSACHUSETTS THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE
SLOWLY ROTATING ITS WAY AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW WHICH IS
EAST OF MASSACHUSETTS.  OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE MID
50S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES NEAR THE COAST.

TONIGHT...LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL RESULT IN
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT.  THIS WILL DROP MANY
LOCATIONS INTO BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE INTERIOR.  TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS NORTHERN CONNECTICUT...
RHODE ISLAND...AND SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS.  BECAUSE THE GROWING
SEASON HAS BEGUN ACROSS THESE AREAS...WILL ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY
FOR THIS REGION.  THERE IS ALSO A LOW PROBABILITY OF FROST OCCURRING
ALONG THE EAST COAST OF MASSACHUSETTS.  HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS
LOWER THERE SO HAVE HELD OFF ON ISSUING AN ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY...THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO OUR
REGION. THUS WE WILL BE IN A MORE FAVORABLE POSITION FOR DIURNAL
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. SKIES SHOULD START OFF PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
THEN CLOUDS DEVELOP ALONG WITH A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS.  THESE SHOWERS
ARE MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE.  HIGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE IN THE 50S ONCE AGAIN...THOUGH IF ENOUGH SUN PEEKS THROUGH
THE CLOUDS...COULD SEE TEMPS NEAR 60 THROUGH THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY
AND IN PARTS OF RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND WITH THE UPPER LOW JUST EAST OF THE AREA.  WITH CLOUDY
SKIES AND RAIN SHOWERS...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE A BIT WARMER THAN
EITHER OF THE PREVIOUS TWO NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO THE
LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* RISK FOR SHOWERS AT TIMES BUT DRY MOST OF PERIOD
* LOW CONFIDENCE AFTER WEDNESDAY

OVERVIEW... PERSISTENT UPPER TROF OVER MARITIMES RETROGRADES EARLY
IN THE WEEK BEFORE MOVING BACK OFFSHORE. SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY
WHICH CAME ASHORE LAST NIGHT IN CA MAY PHASE WITH NORTHERN STREAM
ENERGY LATE IN THE WEEK. OPERATIONAL GFS DOES NOT SHOW PHASING. THE
12Z ECMWF DOES SHOW PHASING LIKE ITS PREDECESSOR...BUT ALSO LIKE ITS
PRIOR RUN...STILL TAKES THE SURFACE LOW WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.
THE ECMWF HAS SHOWN BETTER RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY AND ITS 12Z
OPERATIONAL RUN SEEMS FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH ITS 00Z ENSEMBLE MEAN.
THE OPERATIONAL GFS RUNS SHOW LITTLE RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY...AND
ITS ENSEMBLES ARE WIDELY DISPERSED WITH MANY MEMBERS SHOWING NO
SURFACE LOW OFF THE MID ATLC COAST AND A FEW OTHERS DEPICTING AN
INTENSE COASTAL LOW JUST SE OF NEW ENGLAND. ALTHOUGH OVERALL
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AFTER WEDNESDAY...TEND TO HAVE A LITTLE MORE
CONFIDENCE IN THE ECMWF SOLUTION AT THIS TIME GIVEN ITS BETTER
INTERNAL CONSISTENCY.

DETAILS...

MONDAY...UPPER LOW RETROGRADES TO THE WEST AND INDUCES SOME LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND A COLD POOL ALOFT THAT SUPPORTS
SHOWERS. HAVE POPS GENERALLY AROUND 40 PERCENT BUT THINKING THAT
FUTURE SHIFTS MAY WISH TO INCREASE THOSE IF FUTURE MODEL RUNS REMAIN
CONSISTENT. NOTED THAT TOTAL TOTALS WERE NEAR 50...REFLECTIVE OF THE
COLD POOL ALOFT.

MONDAY NIGHT...MAY SEE SHOWERS LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE
GRADUALLY DISSIPATING AND UPPER TROF STARTS TO SHIFT SE IN ADDITION
TO LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

TUESDAY...HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE AFTERNOON IN
THE EAST GIVEN SOME LINGERING MOISTURE...CYCLONIC FLOW AND PROXIMITY
OF COLD POOL ALOFT.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WEDNESDAY IS LOOKING DRY FOR NOW. GFS
BRINGS UPPER SHORT WAVE TOWARD NEW ENGLAND LATE IN DAY/EVENING BUT
ECMWF HOLDS IT BACK. ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY THAT HAVE JUST LOW END
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY FOR THIS
PERIOD DEPENDENT UPON EVOLUTION OF PROBABLE LOW DEVELOPMENT OFF THE
MID ATLC COAST. THE ECMWF SHOWS BEST CONSISTENCY RUN TO RUN AND WITH
ITS ENSEMBLES SO LEANING IN THAT DIRECTION FOR THE MOMENT. THIS
WOULD SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL OF A SIGNIFICANT SURFACE LOW FORMING
NEAR THE MID ATLC COAST BUT PROBABLY REMAINING SE OF NEW ENGLAND.

IT IS POSSIBLE THAT BY SATURDAY WILL SEE BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND
INCREASING THICKNESSES AS A RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE OH VALLEY AND
ATTEMPTS TO BUILD TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. THIS MAY SIGNAL THE START OF A
WARMER PERIOD FOR THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. CONTINUE TO EXPECT VFR WITH LIGHT
WINDS.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS. SEA BREEZES
LIKELY. POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR IN SPOTTY SHOWERS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS. POSSIBLE
BRIEF MVFR IN SPOTTY SHOWERS.

KBOS TAF...GENERALLY HIGH CONFIDENCE. SEA BREEZE DEVELOPED LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. ANTICIPATE LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW TO REDEVELOP AROUND
OR VERY SHORTLY AFTER 01Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THOUGH THURSDAY...

MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...VFR MOST OF THE TIME BUT AREAS OF MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE. ADJUSTED SEAS SLIGHTLY UP ACROSS THE OUTER SOUTH
COASTAL WATERS AS WELL AS MASS BAY PER LATEST OBSERVATIONS BUT NOT
A CONCERN AS SEAS REVERTING BACK TO LARGELY A GENTLE SWELL
OVERNIGHT. QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD
WITH WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM TIME TO TIME THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT BUT SHOULD
BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST FOR MUCH OF THE TIME.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THOUGHT THURSDAY...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

ENOUGH NORTHERLY GRADIENT ANTICIPATED MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING
THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MIGHT BE MET...ESPECIALLY
COASTAL WATERS TO THE EAST. MAY TAKE UNTIL TUE EVENING BEFORE SEAS
SUBSIDE BACK BELOW 5 FEET.

OFFSHORE LOW MAY BRING INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS...PERHAPS NEAR OR
ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS...TO THE OUTER SOUTH COASTAL
WATERS LATE THU OR THU NIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THE WIND FIELD FOR THAT TIME FRAME GIVEN HIGHER THAN
AVERAGE NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION MODEL UNCERTAINTIES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR MAZ017-018.
RI...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR RIZ001-003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...RLG/THOMPSON
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...THOMPSON
AVIATION...RLG/THOMPSON
MARINE...RLG/THOMPSON




000
FXUS61 KBOX 252308
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
708 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH
SPOTTY SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES. PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF NEXT
WEEK AS WELL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
7 PM UPDATE...MID LEVEL CLOUDS COVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA NE
OF A PSF-WST LINE AT 00Z...BUT THESE CLOUDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO
THIN OUT BY AROUND MIDNIGHT AND ALLOW FOR FAIRLY ROBUST
RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT. IF THESE CLOUDS TAKE LONGER TO
DISSIPATE THAN ANTICIPATED...THEN IT MIGHT BE NECESSARY TO TAKE
ANOTHER LOOK AT OVERNIGHT PROJECTED LOW TEMPERATURES AND FROST
ADVISORY. ANOTHER ISSUE EARLY THIS EVENING IS PROGRESSION OF SEA
BREEZE TO THE IMMEDIATE BOS SHORELINE. ANTICIPATE THE A LIGHT
OFFSHORE FLOW TO BECOME REESTABLISHED AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 01Z.

330 PM UPDATE...CLOUDS HAVE STREAMED DOWN THE EAST COAST OF
MASSACHUSETTS THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE
SLOWLY ROTATING ITS WAY AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW WHICH IS
EAST OF MASSACHUSETTS.  OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE MID
50S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES NEAR THE COAST.

TONIGHT...LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL RESULT IN
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT.  THIS WILL DROP MANY
LOCATIONS INTO BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE INTERIOR.  TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS NORTHERN CONNECTICUT...
RHODE ISLAND...AND SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS.  BECAUSE THE GROWING
SEASON HAS BEGUN ACROSS THESE AREAS...WILL ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY
FOR THIS REGION.  THERE IS ALSO A LOW PROBABILITY OF FROST OCCURRING
ALONG THE EAST COAST OF MASSACHUSETTS.  HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS
LOWER THERE SO HAVE HELD OFF ON ISSUING AN ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY...THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO OUR
REGION. THUS WE WILL BE IN A MORE FAVORABLE POSITION FOR DIURNAL
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. SKIES SHOULD START OFF PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
THEN CLOUDS DEVELOP ALONG WITH A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS.  THESE SHOWERS
ARE MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE.  HIGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE IN THE 50S ONCE AGAIN...THOUGH IF ENOUGH SUN PEEKS THROUGH
THE CLOUDS...COULD SEE TEMPS NEAR 60 THROUGH THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY
AND IN PARTS OF RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND WITH THE UPPER LOW JUST EAST OF THE AREA.  WITH CLOUDY
SKIES AND RAIN SHOWERS...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE A BIT WARMER THAN
EITHER OF THE PREVIOUS TWO NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO THE
LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* RISK FOR SHOWERS AT TIMES BUT DRY MOST OF PERIOD
* LOW CONFIDENCE AFTER WEDNESDAY

OVERVIEW... PERSISTENT UPPER TROF OVER MARITIMES RETROGRADES EARLY
IN THE WEEK BEFORE MOVING BACK OFFSHORE. SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY
WHICH CAME ASHORE LAST NIGHT IN CA MAY PHASE WITH NORTHERN STREAM
ENERGY LATE IN THE WEEK. OPERATIONAL GFS DOES NOT SHOW PHASING. THE
12Z ECMWF DOES SHOW PHASING LIKE ITS PREDECESSOR...BUT ALSO LIKE ITS
PRIOR RUN...STILL TAKES THE SURFACE LOW WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.
THE ECMWF HAS SHOWN BETTER RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY AND ITS 12Z
OPERATIONAL RUN SEEMS FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH ITS 00Z ENSEMBLE MEAN.
THE OPERATIONAL GFS RUNS SHOW LITTLE RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY...AND
ITS ENSEMBLES ARE WIDELY DISPERSED WITH MANY MEMBERS SHOWING NO
SURFACE LOW OFF THE MID ATLC COAST AND A FEW OTHERS DEPICTING AN
INTENSE COASTAL LOW JUST SE OF NEW ENGLAND. ALTHOUGH OVERALL
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AFTER WEDNESDAY...TEND TO HAVE A LITTLE MORE
CONFIDENCE IN THE ECMWF SOLUTION AT THIS TIME GIVEN ITS BETTER
INTERNAL CONSISTENCY.

DETAILS...

MONDAY...UPPER LOW RETROGRADES TO THE WEST AND INDUCES SOME LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND A COLD POOL ALOFT THAT SUPPORTS
SHOWERS. HAVE POPS GENERALLY AROUND 40 PERCENT BUT THINKING THAT
FUTURE SHIFTS MAY WISH TO INCREASE THOSE IF FUTURE MODEL RUNS REMAIN
CONSISTENT. NOTED THAT TOTAL TOTALS WERE NEAR 50...REFLECTIVE OF THE
COLD POOL ALOFT.

MONDAY NIGHT...MAY SEE SHOWERS LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE
GRADUALLY DISSIPATING AND UPPER TROF STARTS TO SHIFT SE IN ADDITION
TO LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

TUESDAY...HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE AFTERNOON IN
THE EAST GIVEN SOME LINGERING MOISTURE...CYCLONIC FLOW AND PROXIMITY
OF COLD POOL ALOFT.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WEDNESDAY IS LOOKING DRY FOR NOW. GFS
BRINGS UPPER SHORT WAVE TOWARD NEW ENGLAND LATE IN DAY/EVENING BUT
ECMWF HOLDS IT BACK. ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY THAT HAVE JUST LOW END
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY FOR THIS
PERIOD DEPENDENT UPON EVOLUTION OF PROBABLE LOW DEVELOPMENT OFF THE
MID ATLC COAST. THE ECMWF SHOWS BEST CONSISTENCY RUN TO RUN AND WITH
ITS ENSEMBLES SO LEANING IN THAT DIRECTION FOR THE MOMENT. THIS
WOULD SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL OF A SIGNIFICANT SURFACE LOW FORMING
NEAR THE MID ATLC COAST BUT PROBABLY REMAINING SE OF NEW ENGLAND.

IT IS POSSIBLE THAT BY SATURDAY WILL SEE BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND
INCREASING THICKNESSES AS A RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE OH VALLEY AND
ATTEMPTS TO BUILD TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. THIS MAY SIGNAL THE START OF A
WARMER PERIOD FOR THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. CONTINUE TO EXPECT VFR WITH LIGHT
WINDS.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS. SEA BREEZES
LIKELY. POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR IN SPOTTY SHOWERS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS. POSSIBLE
BRIEF MVFR IN SPOTTY SHOWERS.

KBOS TAF...GENERALLY HIGH CONFIDENCE. SEA BREEZE DEVELOPED LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. ANTICIPATE LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW TO REDEVELOP AROUND
OR VERY SHORTLY AFTER 01Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THOUGH THURSDAY...

MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...VFR MOST OF THE TIME BUT AREAS OF MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE. ADJUSTED SEAS SLIGHTLY UP ACROSS THE OUTER SOUTH
COASTAL WATERS AS WELL AS MASS BAY PER LATEST OBSERVATIONS BUT NOT
A CONCERN AS SEAS REVERTING BACK TO LARGELY A GENTLE SWELL
OVERNIGHT. QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD
WITH WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM TIME TO TIME THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT BUT SHOULD
BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST FOR MUCH OF THE TIME.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THOUGHT THURSDAY...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

ENOUGH NORTHERLY GRADIENT ANTICIPATED MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING
THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MIGHT BE MET...ESPECIALLY
COASTAL WATERS TO THE EAST. MAY TAKE UNTIL TUE EVENING BEFORE SEAS
SUBSIDE BACK BELOW 5 FEET.

OFFSHORE LOW MAY BRING INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS...PERHAPS NEAR OR
ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS...TO THE OUTER SOUTH COASTAL
WATERS LATE THU OR THU NIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THE WIND FIELD FOR THAT TIME FRAME GIVEN HIGHER THAN
AVERAGE NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION MODEL UNCERTAINTIES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR MAZ017-018.
RI...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR RIZ001-003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...RLG/THOMPSON
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...THOMPSON
AVIATION...RLG/THOMPSON
MARINE...RLG/THOMPSON



000
FXUS61 KALY 252043
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
443 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LEVEL STORM IN THE GULF OF MAINE WILL WOBBLE BACK INTO
MAINE ON SUNDAY...WHICH WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DIURNALLY INDUCED CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING...THEN INCREASE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW OVER
THE GULF OF MAINE BEGINS TO WOBBLE WESTWARD AND BRINGS AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE. IT WILL BE A CHILLY NIGHT AGAIN WITH LOWS 25 TO 35.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF CONTINUES TO SHIFT SLOWLY WESTWARD ON
SUNDAY...CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN MOST AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN A MUCH BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON MONDAY AS
THE UPPER LOW GETS RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE REGION. HAVE FORECAST
35 TO 50 PERCENT POPS ON MONDAY FOR MOST OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY...EASTWARD TO THE BERKSHIRES AND NW CT. LIKELY POPS ARE
FORECAST FROM THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS TO THE LAKE GEORGE
AREA...THE ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK VALLEY AND EASTERN CATSKILLS. THE
LOW WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
AND HAVE FORECAST POPS TO LOWER TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN ALL AREAS BY
LATE AT NIGHT.

ONCE CLOUDS INCREASE TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ON SUNDAY...EXPECT SKY COVER
TO REMAIN CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MONDAY...THEN START TO
SLOWLY DECREASE MONDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN COOL DURING THE PERIOD...AND WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS FOR THE
SHOWERS TO FALL AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW OR JUST SNOW IN HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS. LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. HIGHS SUNDAY
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 30S TO
AROUND 40. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S ONCE AGAIN. LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH THE CUT-OFF LOW STILL POTENTIALLY
IMPACTING OUR REGION. HOWEVER...IT NOW LOOKS AS IF SOUTHERN STREAM
ENERGY WILL NOT PHASE WITH THIS FEATURE. ALL OF THE LONG RANGE
FORECAST MODELS INDICATED THE NORTHERN STREAM CUTOFF LOW WILL BEGIN
TO SLOWLY EXIT ON TUESDAY...BUT THERE STILL COULD BE SOME UPSLOPE
SHOWERS TO THE EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY SO CONTINUED THE IDEA OF
POPS IN THAT AREA ON TUESDAY. THERE MIGHT ALSO BE A FEW LIGHT RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WITH A LITTLE MOISTURE OFF
LAKE ONTARIO.

THEN...THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW LOOKS TO BECOME WEAKLY
ANTICYLONIC  BY WEDNESDAY. THE 12Z GFS HAD A WEAK COLD FRONT WORKING
ACROSS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY...BUT CANADIAN AND EUROPEAN MODELS
DID NOT HAVE THIS FEATURE ARRIVING UNTIL EARLY THURSDAY.

WE WILL KEEP WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY DRY WITH THE CHANCE FOR MAINLY
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. BY SATURDAY...THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT A RIDGE COULD START BUILDING INTO OUR REGION FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY WHICH WOULD BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES.

UNTIL THAT TIME...TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE CLOSE TO
NORMAL WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN....LOWER 60S TO UPPER 60S VALLEY LOCATIONS. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S MOUNTAINS AND COLDEST
SHELTERED VALLEYS...LOWER TO MID 40S MOST OTHER PLACES. BY NEXT
SATURDAY...WE GO WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 IN THE VALLEYS...60S HIGHER
TERRAIN.

PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE BELOW NORMAL DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS
ANY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS THAT TAKE PLACE LOOK LIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.
AS OUR REGION IS ON THE WEST SIDE OF AN ALMOST STATIONARY UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND SOME GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE THROUGH 00Z
SUNDAY. ONCE WE GO PAST 00Z SUNDAY...MORE FEW TO SCT CLOUD
COVERAGE WILL BEGIN TO WORK BACK INTO THE REGION. BKN CEILINGS
POSSIBLE AT KGFL CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BUT
STILL IN VFR CRITERIA. CLOUDS WILL BE AT ALL TAF SITES AT VARYING
COVERAGE PAST 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD
REMAINING AT VFR CONDITIONS.

WINDS WILL BE GUSTING AT OR ABOVE 10 KNOTS OUT OF THE NW AT
KGFL/KALB BEFORE 00Z. WINDS AT ALL TAF SITES WILL BE NEAR CALM FROM
00Z-12Z SUNDAY BEFORE GUSTING BETWEEN 5-10 KNOTS OUT OF THE WNW 12Z
SUNDAY THROUGH END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT...RH VALUES WILL RECOVER TO BETWEEN
70 AND 90 PERCENT.

THERE WILL BE A FURTHER INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE ON
SUNDAY...ALONG WITH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FROM LATE SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ELEVATED WITH MINIMUM
VALUES ON SUNDAY RANGING FROM 35 TO 45 PERCENT...THEN 40 TO 60
PERCENT ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION. ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION
WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR
HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA /HSA/.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...LFM
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/BGM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM



000
FXUS61 KALY 252043
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
443 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LEVEL STORM IN THE GULF OF MAINE WILL WOBBLE BACK INTO
MAINE ON SUNDAY...WHICH WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DIURNALLY INDUCED CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING...THEN INCREASE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW OVER
THE GULF OF MAINE BEGINS TO WOBBLE WESTWARD AND BRINGS AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE. IT WILL BE A CHILLY NIGHT AGAIN WITH LOWS 25 TO 35.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF CONTINUES TO SHIFT SLOWLY WESTWARD ON
SUNDAY...CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN MOST AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN A MUCH BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON MONDAY AS
THE UPPER LOW GETS RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE REGION. HAVE FORECAST
35 TO 50 PERCENT POPS ON MONDAY FOR MOST OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY...EASTWARD TO THE BERKSHIRES AND NW CT. LIKELY POPS ARE
FORECAST FROM THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS TO THE LAKE GEORGE
AREA...THE ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK VALLEY AND EASTERN CATSKILLS. THE
LOW WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
AND HAVE FORECAST POPS TO LOWER TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN ALL AREAS BY
LATE AT NIGHT.

ONCE CLOUDS INCREASE TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ON SUNDAY...EXPECT SKY COVER
TO REMAIN CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MONDAY...THEN START TO
SLOWLY DECREASE MONDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN COOL DURING THE PERIOD...AND WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS FOR THE
SHOWERS TO FALL AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW OR JUST SNOW IN HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS. LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. HIGHS SUNDAY
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 30S TO
AROUND 40. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S ONCE AGAIN. LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH THE CUT-OFF LOW STILL POTENTIALLY
IMPACTING OUR REGION. HOWEVER...IT NOW LOOKS AS IF SOUTHERN STREAM
ENERGY WILL NOT PHASE WITH THIS FEATURE. ALL OF THE LONG RANGE
FORECAST MODELS INDICATED THE NORTHERN STREAM CUTOFF LOW WILL BEGIN
TO SLOWLY EXIT ON TUESDAY...BUT THERE STILL COULD BE SOME UPSLOPE
SHOWERS TO THE EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY SO CONTINUED THE IDEA OF
POPS IN THAT AREA ON TUESDAY. THERE MIGHT ALSO BE A FEW LIGHT RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WITH A LITTLE MOISTURE OFF
LAKE ONTARIO.

THEN...THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW LOOKS TO BECOME WEAKLY
ANTICYLONIC  BY WEDNESDAY. THE 12Z GFS HAD A WEAK COLD FRONT WORKING
ACROSS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY...BUT CANADIAN AND EUROPEAN MODELS
DID NOT HAVE THIS FEATURE ARRIVING UNTIL EARLY THURSDAY.

WE WILL KEEP WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY DRY WITH THE CHANCE FOR MAINLY
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. BY SATURDAY...THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT A RIDGE COULD START BUILDING INTO OUR REGION FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY WHICH WOULD BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES.

UNTIL THAT TIME...TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE CLOSE TO
NORMAL WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN....LOWER 60S TO UPPER 60S VALLEY LOCATIONS. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S MOUNTAINS AND COLDEST
SHELTERED VALLEYS...LOWER TO MID 40S MOST OTHER PLACES. BY NEXT
SATURDAY...WE GO WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 IN THE VALLEYS...60S HIGHER
TERRAIN.

PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE BELOW NORMAL DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS
ANY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS THAT TAKE PLACE LOOK LIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.
AS OUR REGION IS ON THE WEST SIDE OF AN ALMOST STATIONARY UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND SOME GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE THROUGH 00Z
SUNDAY. ONCE WE GO PAST 00Z SUNDAY...MORE FEW TO SCT CLOUD
COVERAGE WILL BEGIN TO WORK BACK INTO THE REGION. BKN CEILINGS
POSSIBLE AT KGFL CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BUT
STILL IN VFR CRITERIA. CLOUDS WILL BE AT ALL TAF SITES AT VARYING
COVERAGE PAST 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD
REMAINING AT VFR CONDITIONS.

WINDS WILL BE GUSTING AT OR ABOVE 10 KNOTS OUT OF THE NW AT
KGFL/KALB BEFORE 00Z. WINDS AT ALL TAF SITES WILL BE NEAR CALM FROM
00Z-12Z SUNDAY BEFORE GUSTING BETWEEN 5-10 KNOTS OUT OF THE WNW 12Z
SUNDAY THROUGH END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT...RH VALUES WILL RECOVER TO BETWEEN
70 AND 90 PERCENT.

THERE WILL BE A FURTHER INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE ON
SUNDAY...ALONG WITH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FROM LATE SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ELEVATED WITH MINIMUM
VALUES ON SUNDAY RANGING FROM 35 TO 45 PERCENT...THEN 40 TO 60
PERCENT ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION. ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION
WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR
HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA /HSA/.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...LFM
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/BGM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM



000
FXUS61 KALY 252043
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
443 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LEVEL STORM IN THE GULF OF MAINE WILL WOBBLE BACK INTO
MAINE ON SUNDAY...WHICH WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DIURNALLY INDUCED CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING...THEN INCREASE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW OVER
THE GULF OF MAINE BEGINS TO WOBBLE WESTWARD AND BRINGS AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE. IT WILL BE A CHILLY NIGHT AGAIN WITH LOWS 25 TO 35.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF CONTINUES TO SHIFT SLOWLY WESTWARD ON
SUNDAY...CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN MOST AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN A MUCH BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON MONDAY AS
THE UPPER LOW GETS RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE REGION. HAVE FORECAST
35 TO 50 PERCENT POPS ON MONDAY FOR MOST OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY...EASTWARD TO THE BERKSHIRES AND NW CT. LIKELY POPS ARE
FORECAST FROM THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS TO THE LAKE GEORGE
AREA...THE ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK VALLEY AND EASTERN CATSKILLS. THE
LOW WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
AND HAVE FORECAST POPS TO LOWER TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN ALL AREAS BY
LATE AT NIGHT.

ONCE CLOUDS INCREASE TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ON SUNDAY...EXPECT SKY COVER
TO REMAIN CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MONDAY...THEN START TO
SLOWLY DECREASE MONDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN COOL DURING THE PERIOD...AND WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS FOR THE
SHOWERS TO FALL AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW OR JUST SNOW IN HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS. LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. HIGHS SUNDAY
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 30S TO
AROUND 40. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S ONCE AGAIN. LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH THE CUT-OFF LOW STILL POTENTIALLY
IMPACTING OUR REGION. HOWEVER...IT NOW LOOKS AS IF SOUTHERN STREAM
ENERGY WILL NOT PHASE WITH THIS FEATURE. ALL OF THE LONG RANGE
FORECAST MODELS INDICATED THE NORTHERN STREAM CUTOFF LOW WILL BEGIN
TO SLOWLY EXIT ON TUESDAY...BUT THERE STILL COULD BE SOME UPSLOPE
SHOWERS TO THE EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY SO CONTINUED THE IDEA OF
POPS IN THAT AREA ON TUESDAY. THERE MIGHT ALSO BE A FEW LIGHT RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WITH A LITTLE MOISTURE OFF
LAKE ONTARIO.

THEN...THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW LOOKS TO BECOME WEAKLY
ANTICYLONIC  BY WEDNESDAY. THE 12Z GFS HAD A WEAK COLD FRONT WORKING
ACROSS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY...BUT CANADIAN AND EUROPEAN MODELS
DID NOT HAVE THIS FEATURE ARRIVING UNTIL EARLY THURSDAY.

WE WILL KEEP WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY DRY WITH THE CHANCE FOR MAINLY
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. BY SATURDAY...THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT A RIDGE COULD START BUILDING INTO OUR REGION FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY WHICH WOULD BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES.

UNTIL THAT TIME...TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE CLOSE TO
NORMAL WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN....LOWER 60S TO UPPER 60S VALLEY LOCATIONS. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S MOUNTAINS AND COLDEST
SHELTERED VALLEYS...LOWER TO MID 40S MOST OTHER PLACES. BY NEXT
SATURDAY...WE GO WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 IN THE VALLEYS...60S HIGHER
TERRAIN.

PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE BELOW NORMAL DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS
ANY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS THAT TAKE PLACE LOOK LIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.
AS OUR REGION IS ON THE WEST SIDE OF AN ALMOST STATIONARY UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND SOME GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE THROUGH 00Z
SUNDAY. ONCE WE GO PAST 00Z SUNDAY...MORE FEW TO SCT CLOUD
COVERAGE WILL BEGIN TO WORK BACK INTO THE REGION. BKN CEILINGS
POSSIBLE AT KGFL CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BUT
STILL IN VFR CRITERIA. CLOUDS WILL BE AT ALL TAF SITES AT VARYING
COVERAGE PAST 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD
REMAINING AT VFR CONDITIONS.

WINDS WILL BE GUSTING AT OR ABOVE 10 KNOTS OUT OF THE NW AT
KGFL/KALB BEFORE 00Z. WINDS AT ALL TAF SITES WILL BE NEAR CALM FROM
00Z-12Z SUNDAY BEFORE GUSTING BETWEEN 5-10 KNOTS OUT OF THE WNW 12Z
SUNDAY THROUGH END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT...RH VALUES WILL RECOVER TO BETWEEN
70 AND 90 PERCENT.

THERE WILL BE A FURTHER INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE ON
SUNDAY...ALONG WITH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FROM LATE SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ELEVATED WITH MINIMUM
VALUES ON SUNDAY RANGING FROM 35 TO 45 PERCENT...THEN 40 TO 60
PERCENT ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION. ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION
WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR
HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA /HSA/.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...LFM
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/BGM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM



000
FXUS61 KALY 252043
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
443 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LEVEL STORM IN THE GULF OF MAINE WILL WOBBLE BACK INTO
MAINE ON SUNDAY...WHICH WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DIURNALLY INDUCED CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING...THEN INCREASE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW OVER
THE GULF OF MAINE BEGINS TO WOBBLE WESTWARD AND BRINGS AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE. IT WILL BE A CHILLY NIGHT AGAIN WITH LOWS 25 TO 35.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF CONTINUES TO SHIFT SLOWLY WESTWARD ON
SUNDAY...CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN MOST AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN A MUCH BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON MONDAY AS
THE UPPER LOW GETS RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE REGION. HAVE FORECAST
35 TO 50 PERCENT POPS ON MONDAY FOR MOST OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY...EASTWARD TO THE BERKSHIRES AND NW CT. LIKELY POPS ARE
FORECAST FROM THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS TO THE LAKE GEORGE
AREA...THE ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK VALLEY AND EASTERN CATSKILLS. THE
LOW WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
AND HAVE FORECAST POPS TO LOWER TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN ALL AREAS BY
LATE AT NIGHT.

ONCE CLOUDS INCREASE TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ON SUNDAY...EXPECT SKY COVER
TO REMAIN CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MONDAY...THEN START TO
SLOWLY DECREASE MONDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN COOL DURING THE PERIOD...AND WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS FOR THE
SHOWERS TO FALL AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW OR JUST SNOW IN HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS. LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. HIGHS SUNDAY
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 30S TO
AROUND 40. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S ONCE AGAIN. LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH THE CUT-OFF LOW STILL POTENTIALLY
IMPACTING OUR REGION. HOWEVER...IT NOW LOOKS AS IF SOUTHERN STREAM
ENERGY WILL NOT PHASE WITH THIS FEATURE. ALL OF THE LONG RANGE
FORECAST MODELS INDICATED THE NORTHERN STREAM CUTOFF LOW WILL BEGIN
TO SLOWLY EXIT ON TUESDAY...BUT THERE STILL COULD BE SOME UPSLOPE
SHOWERS TO THE EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY SO CONTINUED THE IDEA OF
POPS IN THAT AREA ON TUESDAY. THERE MIGHT ALSO BE A FEW LIGHT RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WITH A LITTLE MOISTURE OFF
LAKE ONTARIO.

THEN...THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW LOOKS TO BECOME WEAKLY
ANTICYLONIC  BY WEDNESDAY. THE 12Z GFS HAD A WEAK COLD FRONT WORKING
ACROSS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY...BUT CANADIAN AND EUROPEAN MODELS
DID NOT HAVE THIS FEATURE ARRIVING UNTIL EARLY THURSDAY.

WE WILL KEEP WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY DRY WITH THE CHANCE FOR MAINLY
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. BY SATURDAY...THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT A RIDGE COULD START BUILDING INTO OUR REGION FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY WHICH WOULD BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES.

UNTIL THAT TIME...TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE CLOSE TO
NORMAL WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN....LOWER 60S TO UPPER 60S VALLEY LOCATIONS. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S MOUNTAINS AND COLDEST
SHELTERED VALLEYS...LOWER TO MID 40S MOST OTHER PLACES. BY NEXT
SATURDAY...WE GO WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 IN THE VALLEYS...60S HIGHER
TERRAIN.

PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE BELOW NORMAL DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS
ANY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS THAT TAKE PLACE LOOK LIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.
AS OUR REGION IS ON THE WEST SIDE OF AN ALMOST STATIONARY UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND SOME GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE THROUGH 00Z
SUNDAY. ONCE WE GO PAST 00Z SUNDAY...MORE FEW TO SCT CLOUD
COVERAGE WILL BEGIN TO WORK BACK INTO THE REGION. BKN CEILINGS
POSSIBLE AT KGFL CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BUT
STILL IN VFR CRITERIA. CLOUDS WILL BE AT ALL TAF SITES AT VARYING
COVERAGE PAST 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD
REMAINING AT VFR CONDITIONS.

WINDS WILL BE GUSTING AT OR ABOVE 10 KNOTS OUT OF THE NW AT
KGFL/KALB BEFORE 00Z. WINDS AT ALL TAF SITES WILL BE NEAR CALM FROM
00Z-12Z SUNDAY BEFORE GUSTING BETWEEN 5-10 KNOTS OUT OF THE WNW 12Z
SUNDAY THROUGH END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT...RH VALUES WILL RECOVER TO BETWEEN
70 AND 90 PERCENT.

THERE WILL BE A FURTHER INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE ON
SUNDAY...ALONG WITH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FROM LATE SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ELEVATED WITH MINIMUM
VALUES ON SUNDAY RANGING FROM 35 TO 45 PERCENT...THEN 40 TO 60
PERCENT ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION. ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION
WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR
HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA /HSA/.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...LFM
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/BGM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM



000
FXUS61 KALY 252043
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
443 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LEVEL STORM IN THE GULF OF MAINE WILL WOBBLE BACK INTO
MAINE ON SUNDAY...WHICH WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DIURNALLY INDUCED CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING...THEN INCREASE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW OVER
THE GULF OF MAINE BEGINS TO WOBBLE WESTWARD AND BRINGS AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE. IT WILL BE A CHILLY NIGHT AGAIN WITH LOWS 25 TO 35.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF CONTINUES TO SHIFT SLOWLY WESTWARD ON
SUNDAY...CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN MOST AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN A MUCH BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON MONDAY AS
THE UPPER LOW GETS RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE REGION. HAVE FORECAST
35 TO 50 PERCENT POPS ON MONDAY FOR MOST OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY...EASTWARD TO THE BERKSHIRES AND NW CT. LIKELY POPS ARE
FORECAST FROM THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS TO THE LAKE GEORGE
AREA...THE ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK VALLEY AND EASTERN CATSKILLS. THE
LOW WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
AND HAVE FORECAST POPS TO LOWER TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN ALL AREAS BY
LATE AT NIGHT.

ONCE CLOUDS INCREASE TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ON SUNDAY...EXPECT SKY COVER
TO REMAIN CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MONDAY...THEN START TO
SLOWLY DECREASE MONDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN COOL DURING THE PERIOD...AND WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS FOR THE
SHOWERS TO FALL AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW OR JUST SNOW IN HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS. LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. HIGHS SUNDAY
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 30S TO
AROUND 40. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S ONCE AGAIN. LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH THE CUT-OFF LOW STILL POTENTIALLY
IMPACTING OUR REGION. HOWEVER...IT NOW LOOKS AS IF SOUTHERN STREAM
ENERGY WILL NOT PHASE WITH THIS FEATURE. ALL OF THE LONG RANGE
FORECAST MODELS INDICATED THE NORTHERN STREAM CUTOFF LOW WILL BEGIN
TO SLOWLY EXIT ON TUESDAY...BUT THERE STILL COULD BE SOME UPSLOPE
SHOWERS TO THE EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY SO CONTINUED THE IDEA OF
POPS IN THAT AREA ON TUESDAY. THERE MIGHT ALSO BE A FEW LIGHT RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WITH A LITTLE MOISTURE OFF
LAKE ONTARIO.

THEN...THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW LOOKS TO BECOME WEAKLY
ANTICYLONIC  BY WEDNESDAY. THE 12Z GFS HAD A WEAK COLD FRONT WORKING
ACROSS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY...BUT CANADIAN AND EUROPEAN MODELS
DID NOT HAVE THIS FEATURE ARRIVING UNTIL EARLY THURSDAY.

WE WILL KEEP WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY DRY WITH THE CHANCE FOR MAINLY
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. BY SATURDAY...THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT A RIDGE COULD START BUILDING INTO OUR REGION FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY WHICH WOULD BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES.

UNTIL THAT TIME...TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE CLOSE TO
NORMAL WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN....LOWER 60S TO UPPER 60S VALLEY LOCATIONS. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S MOUNTAINS AND COLDEST
SHELTERED VALLEYS...LOWER TO MID 40S MOST OTHER PLACES. BY NEXT
SATURDAY...WE GO WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 IN THE VALLEYS...60S HIGHER
TERRAIN.

PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE BELOW NORMAL DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS
ANY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS THAT TAKE PLACE LOOK LIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.
AS OUR REGION IS ON THE WEST SIDE OF AN ALMOST STATIONARY UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND SOME GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE THROUGH 00Z
SUNDAY. ONCE WE GO PAST 00Z SUNDAY...MORE FEW TO SCT CLOUD
COVERAGE WILL BEGIN TO WORK BACK INTO THE REGION. BKN CEILINGS
POSSIBLE AT KGFL CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BUT
STILL IN VFR CRITERIA. CLOUDS WILL BE AT ALL TAF SITES AT VARYING
COVERAGE PAST 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD
REMAINING AT VFR CONDITIONS.

WINDS WILL BE GUSTING AT OR ABOVE 10 KNOTS OUT OF THE NW AT
KGFL/KALB BEFORE 00Z. WINDS AT ALL TAF SITES WILL BE NEAR CALM FROM
00Z-12Z SUNDAY BEFORE GUSTING BETWEEN 5-10 KNOTS OUT OF THE WNW 12Z
SUNDAY THROUGH END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT...RH VALUES WILL RECOVER TO BETWEEN
70 AND 90 PERCENT.

THERE WILL BE A FURTHER INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE ON
SUNDAY...ALONG WITH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FROM LATE SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ELEVATED WITH MINIMUM
VALUES ON SUNDAY RANGING FROM 35 TO 45 PERCENT...THEN 40 TO 60
PERCENT ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION. ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION
WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR
HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA /HSA/.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...LFM
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/BGM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM




000
FXUS61 KBOX 252000
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
400 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH
SPOTTY SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES. PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF NEXT
WEEK AS WELL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
330 PM UPDATE...CLOUDS HAVE STREAMED DOWN THE EAST COAST OF
MASSACHUSETTS THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE
SLOWLY ROTATING ITS WAY AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW WHICH IS
EAST OF MASSACHUSETTS.  OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE MID
50S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES NEAR THE COAST.

TONIGHT...LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL RESULT IN
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT.  THIS WILL DROP MANY
LOCATIONS INTO BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE INTERIOR.  TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS NORTHERN CONNECTICUT...
RHODE ISLAND...AND SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS.  BECAUSE THE GROWING
SEASON HAS BEGUN ACROSS THESE AREAS...WILL ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY
FOR THIS REGION.  THERE IS ALSO A LOW PROBABILITY OF FROST OCCURRING
ALONG THE EAST COAST OF MASSACHUSETTS.  HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS
LOWER THERE SO HAVE HELD OFF ON ISSUING AN ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY...THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO OUR
REGION. THUS WE WILL BE IN A MORE FAVORABLE POSITION FOR DIURNAL
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. SKIES SHOULD START OFF PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
THEN CLOUDS DEVELOP ALONG WITH A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS.  THESE SHOWERS
ARE MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE.  HIGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE IN THE 50S ONCE AGAIN...THOUGH IF ENOUGH SUN PEEKS THROUGH
THE CLOUDS...COULD SEE TEMPS NEAR 60 THROUGH THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY
AND IN PARTS OF RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND WITH THE UPPER LOW JUST EAST OF THE AREA.  WITH CLOUDY
SKIES AND RAIN SHOWERS...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE A BIT WARMER THAN
EITHER OF THE PREVIOUS TWO NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO THE
LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* RISK FOR SHOWERS AT TIMES BUT DRY MOST OF PERIOD
* LOW CONFIDENCE AFTER WEDNESDAY

OVERVIEW... PERSISTENT UPPER TROF OVER MARITIMES RETROGRADES EARLY
IN THE WEEK BEFORE MOVING BACK OFFSHORE. SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY
WHICH CAME ASHORE LAST NIGHT IN CA MAY PHASE WITH NORTHERN STREAM
ENERGY LATE IN THE WEEK. OPERATIONAL GFS DOES NOT SHOW PHASING. THE
12Z ECMWF DOES SHOW PHASING LIKE ITS PREDECESSOR...BUT ALSO LIKE ITS
PRIOR RUN...STILL TAKES THE SURFACE LOW WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.
THE ECMWF HAS SHOWN BETTER RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY AND ITS 12Z
OPERATIONAL RUN SEEMS FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH ITS 00Z ENSEMBLE MEAN.
THE OPERATIONAL GFS RUNS SHOW LITTLE RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY...AND
ITS ENSEMBLES ARE WIDELY DISPERSED WITH MANY MEMBERS SHOWING NO
SURFACE LOW OFF THE MID ATLC COAST AND A FEW OTHERS DEPICTING AN
INTENSE COASTAL LOW JUST SE OF NEW ENGLAND. ALTHOUGH OVERALL
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AFTER WEDNESDAY...TEND TO HAVE A LITTLE MORE
CONFIDENCE IN THE ECMWF SOLUTION AT THIS TIME GIVEN ITS BETTER
INTERNAL CONSISTENCY.

DETAILS...

MONDAY...UPPER LOW RETROGRADES TO THE WEST AND INDUCES SOME LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND A COLD POOL ALOFT THAT SUPPORTS
SHOWERS. HAVE POPS GENERALLY AROUND 40 PERCENT BUT THINKING THAT
FUTURE SHIFTS MAY WISH TO INCREASE THOSE IF FUTURE MODEL RUNS REMAIN
CONSISTENT. NOTED THAT TOTAL TOTALS WERE NEAR 50...REFLECTIVE OF THE
COLD POOL ALOFT.

MONDAY NIGHT...MAY SEE SHOWERS LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE
GRADUALLY DISSIPATING AND UPPER TROF STARTS TO SHIFT SE IN ADDITION
TO LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

TUESDAY...HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE AFTERNOON IN
THE EAST GIVEN SOME LINGERING MOISTURE...CYCLONIC FLOW AND PROXIMITY
OF COLD POOL ALOFT.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WEDNESDAY IS LOOKING DRY FOR NOW. GFS
BRINGS UPPER SHORT WAVE TOWARD NEW ENGLAND LATE IN DAY/EVENING BUT
ECMWF HOLDS IT BACK. ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY THAT HAVE JUST LOW END
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY FOR THIS
PERIOD DEPENDENT UPON EVOLUTION OF PROBABLE LOW DEVELOPMENT OFF THE
MID ATLC COAST. THE ECMWF SHOWS BEST CONSISTENCY RUN TO RUN AND WITH
ITS ENSEMBLES SO LEANING IN THAT DIRECTION FOR THE MOMENT. THIS
WOULD SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL OF A SIGNIFICANT SURFACE LOW FORMING
NEAR THE MID ATLC COAST BUT PROBABLY REMAINING SE OF NEW ENGLAND.

IT IS POSSIBLE THAT BY SATURDAY WILL SEE BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND
INCREASING THICKNESSES AS A RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE OH VALLEY AND
ATTEMPTS TO BUILD TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. THIS MAY SIGNAL THE START OF A
WARMER PERIOD FOR THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THROUGH 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. NW WINDS GUSTING AROUND 20
KNOTS.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS. SEA BREEZES
LIKELY. POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR IN SPOTTY SHOWERS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS. POSSIBLE
BRIEF MVFR IN SPOTTY SHOWERS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF. LOW CONFIDENCE IN LATE
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THOUGH THURSDAY...

MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...VFR MOST OF THE TIME BUT AREAS OF MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE.  QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD WITH WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA.  WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM TIME TO TIME THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
BUT SHOULD BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST FOR MUCH OF THE TIME.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THOUGHT THURSDAY...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

ENOUGH NORTHERLY GRADIENT ANTICIPATED MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING
THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MIGHT BE MET...ESPECIALLY
COASTAL WATERS TO THE EAST. MAY TAKE UNTIL TUE EVENING BEFORE SEAS
SUBSIDE BACK BELOW 5 FEET.

OFFSHORE LOW MAY BRING INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS...PERHAPS NEAR OR
ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS...TO THE OUTER SOUTH COASTAL
WATERS LATE THU OR THU NIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THE WIND FIELD FOR THAT TIME FRAME GIVEN HIGHER THAN
AVERAGE NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION MODEL UNCERTAINTIES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR MAZ017-018.
RI...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR RIZ001-003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...THOMPSON
AVIATION...RLG/THOMPSON
MARINE...RLG/THOMPSON




000
FXUS61 KBOX 252000
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
400 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH
SPOTTY SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES. PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF NEXT
WEEK AS WELL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
330 PM UPDATE...CLOUDS HAVE STREAMED DOWN THE EAST COAST OF
MASSACHUSETTS THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE
SLOWLY ROTATING ITS WAY AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW WHICH IS
EAST OF MASSACHUSETTS.  OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE MID
50S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES NEAR THE COAST.

TONIGHT...LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL RESULT IN
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT.  THIS WILL DROP MANY
LOCATIONS INTO BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE INTERIOR.  TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS NORTHERN CONNECTICUT...
RHODE ISLAND...AND SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS.  BECAUSE THE GROWING
SEASON HAS BEGUN ACROSS THESE AREAS...WILL ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY
FOR THIS REGION.  THERE IS ALSO A LOW PROBABILITY OF FROST OCCURRING
ALONG THE EAST COAST OF MASSACHUSETTS.  HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS
LOWER THERE SO HAVE HELD OFF ON ISSUING AN ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY...THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO OUR
REGION. THUS WE WILL BE IN A MORE FAVORABLE POSITION FOR DIURNAL
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. SKIES SHOULD START OFF PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
THEN CLOUDS DEVELOP ALONG WITH A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS.  THESE SHOWERS
ARE MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE.  HIGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE IN THE 50S ONCE AGAIN...THOUGH IF ENOUGH SUN PEEKS THROUGH
THE CLOUDS...COULD SEE TEMPS NEAR 60 THROUGH THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY
AND IN PARTS OF RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND WITH THE UPPER LOW JUST EAST OF THE AREA.  WITH CLOUDY
SKIES AND RAIN SHOWERS...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE A BIT WARMER THAN
EITHER OF THE PREVIOUS TWO NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO THE
LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* RISK FOR SHOWERS AT TIMES BUT DRY MOST OF PERIOD
* LOW CONFIDENCE AFTER WEDNESDAY

OVERVIEW... PERSISTENT UPPER TROF OVER MARITIMES RETROGRADES EARLY
IN THE WEEK BEFORE MOVING BACK OFFSHORE. SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY
WHICH CAME ASHORE LAST NIGHT IN CA MAY PHASE WITH NORTHERN STREAM
ENERGY LATE IN THE WEEK. OPERATIONAL GFS DOES NOT SHOW PHASING. THE
12Z ECMWF DOES SHOW PHASING LIKE ITS PREDECESSOR...BUT ALSO LIKE ITS
PRIOR RUN...STILL TAKES THE SURFACE LOW WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.
THE ECMWF HAS SHOWN BETTER RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY AND ITS 12Z
OPERATIONAL RUN SEEMS FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH ITS 00Z ENSEMBLE MEAN.
THE OPERATIONAL GFS RUNS SHOW LITTLE RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY...AND
ITS ENSEMBLES ARE WIDELY DISPERSED WITH MANY MEMBERS SHOWING NO
SURFACE LOW OFF THE MID ATLC COAST AND A FEW OTHERS DEPICTING AN
INTENSE COASTAL LOW JUST SE OF NEW ENGLAND. ALTHOUGH OVERALL
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AFTER WEDNESDAY...TEND TO HAVE A LITTLE MORE
CONFIDENCE IN THE ECMWF SOLUTION AT THIS TIME GIVEN ITS BETTER
INTERNAL CONSISTENCY.

DETAILS...

MONDAY...UPPER LOW RETROGRADES TO THE WEST AND INDUCES SOME LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND A COLD POOL ALOFT THAT SUPPORTS
SHOWERS. HAVE POPS GENERALLY AROUND 40 PERCENT BUT THINKING THAT
FUTURE SHIFTS MAY WISH TO INCREASE THOSE IF FUTURE MODEL RUNS REMAIN
CONSISTENT. NOTED THAT TOTAL TOTALS WERE NEAR 50...REFLECTIVE OF THE
COLD POOL ALOFT.

MONDAY NIGHT...MAY SEE SHOWERS LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE
GRADUALLY DISSIPATING AND UPPER TROF STARTS TO SHIFT SE IN ADDITION
TO LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

TUESDAY...HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE AFTERNOON IN
THE EAST GIVEN SOME LINGERING MOISTURE...CYCLONIC FLOW AND PROXIMITY
OF COLD POOL ALOFT.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WEDNESDAY IS LOOKING DRY FOR NOW. GFS
BRINGS UPPER SHORT WAVE TOWARD NEW ENGLAND LATE IN DAY/EVENING BUT
ECMWF HOLDS IT BACK. ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY THAT HAVE JUST LOW END
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY FOR THIS
PERIOD DEPENDENT UPON EVOLUTION OF PROBABLE LOW DEVELOPMENT OFF THE
MID ATLC COAST. THE ECMWF SHOWS BEST CONSISTENCY RUN TO RUN AND WITH
ITS ENSEMBLES SO LEANING IN THAT DIRECTION FOR THE MOMENT. THIS
WOULD SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL OF A SIGNIFICANT SURFACE LOW FORMING
NEAR THE MID ATLC COAST BUT PROBABLY REMAINING SE OF NEW ENGLAND.

IT IS POSSIBLE THAT BY SATURDAY WILL SEE BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND
INCREASING THICKNESSES AS A RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE OH VALLEY AND
ATTEMPTS TO BUILD TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. THIS MAY SIGNAL THE START OF A
WARMER PERIOD FOR THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THROUGH 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. NW WINDS GUSTING AROUND 20
KNOTS.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS. SEA BREEZES
LIKELY. POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR IN SPOTTY SHOWERS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS. POSSIBLE
BRIEF MVFR IN SPOTTY SHOWERS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF. LOW CONFIDENCE IN LATE
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THOUGH THURSDAY...

MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...VFR MOST OF THE TIME BUT AREAS OF MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE.  QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD WITH WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA.  WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM TIME TO TIME THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
BUT SHOULD BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST FOR MUCH OF THE TIME.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THOUGHT THURSDAY...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

ENOUGH NORTHERLY GRADIENT ANTICIPATED MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING
THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MIGHT BE MET...ESPECIALLY
COASTAL WATERS TO THE EAST. MAY TAKE UNTIL TUE EVENING BEFORE SEAS
SUBSIDE BACK BELOW 5 FEET.

OFFSHORE LOW MAY BRING INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS...PERHAPS NEAR OR
ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS...TO THE OUTER SOUTH COASTAL
WATERS LATE THU OR THU NIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THE WIND FIELD FOR THAT TIME FRAME GIVEN HIGHER THAN
AVERAGE NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION MODEL UNCERTAINTIES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR MAZ017-018.
RI...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR RIZ001-003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...THOMPSON
AVIATION...RLG/THOMPSON
MARINE...RLG/THOMPSON



000
FXUS61 KOKX 252000
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
400 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PERSIST OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF COAST STATES WILL TRACK TO
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY THURSDAY AND CONTINUING NORTHEAST INTO
THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MAY IMPACT THE AREA ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
UPPER LOW ELONGATES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT...WITH
SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE OHIO/TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVE SLIDING TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY DAYBREAK. THIS
WILL RESULT IN THE REGION BEING IN AN AREA OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BETWEEN THE CANADIAN MARITIME LOW AND LOW PRESSURE SLIDING THROUGH
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.

DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS. THE CAVEAT WILL BE NORTHERN EXTENT OF
CIRRUS SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TO THE SOUTH. MODELS ARE
GENERALLY KEEPING THIS CIRRUS SHIELD SKIRTING SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE REGION. SO HIGH POTENTIAL FOR FROST CONDITIONS ACROSS INTERIOR
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND CT AREAS TONIGHT...WITH A SLIGHTLY MODERATED
POTENTIAL ACROSS INTERIOR NE NJ AND EASTERN LI DUE TO CIRRUS
POTENTIAL. WILL ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUN
MORNING FOR THESE REGIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BEGINS TO PIVOTS
SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY...WITH WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
REFLECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN.

DAYTIME INSTABILITY...STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND
CONVERGENCE ALONG SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SCT-BKN AFT/EVE
INSTABILITY CU AND ISO-SCT SHOWER DEVELOPING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AND SINKING S/SE. HIGHEST COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS CT IN
VICINITY OF SURFACE TROUGH. GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWERS
WITH INVERTED V SOUNDING. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S.

UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO SINK SE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.
DIMINISHING SURFACE INSTABILITY AND CONVERGENCE SHOULD END ANY
SHOWER ACTIVITY...BUT MID-DECK SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGH APPEARS
TO SINK SOUTH OVER THE REGION. THIS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS SEVERAL
DEGREES MILDER SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A BLOCKY PATTERN LOOKS TO DOMINATE THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK
ACROSS THE CONUS. A LARGE PERSISTENT CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO PLAGUE THE NORTHEAST US THROUGH TUESDAY WHICH WILL
RESULT IN GENERALLY MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND SCT SHOWERS MON/MON
NIGHT AS SPOKES OF VORTICITY WITHIN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ROTATE THROUGH
THE AREA.

THIS CUTOFF FINALLY EXITS ON TUE WITH RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDING IN
TUE NIGHT AND WED. DRY CONDS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED.

MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS DIVERGENT WITH HOW QUICKLY THE RIDGE AXIS
MOVES THROUGH AND THE NEXT TROUGH APPROACHES. GFS IS FASTER THAN THE
EC. WHAT BOTH MODELS DO AGREE ON IS THE PHASING OF A NRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WITH A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS RESULTING IN A
DEEP TROUGH THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUE NIGHT. THE SFC LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CUTOFF TRACKS THROUGH THE GULF COAST STATES TO
OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST ON THU AND CONTINUES ON A NE TRACK
THROUGH FRI. HOWEVER DUE TO THE DIFFERENCES ALOFT THE EC IS
STRONGER...SLOWER AND CLOSER TO THE COAST...BUT CONTINUES TO REMAIN
WELL S OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE KEPT SCHC POPS ACROSS THE AREA THU
AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES DIVE DOWN FROM THE N DURING THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE PATTERN EARLIER IN THE
FORECAST...THIS IS VERY LOW CONFIDENCE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVELS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A LOW WEAKENS IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AS ANOTHER WEAK LOW PASSES
SOUTH OF THE REGION. VFR CONTINUES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WIND
GUSTS 15-20 KT WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING ALONG WITH VARIATION IN WIND DIRECTION.

A TROUGH LOOKS TO SET UP LOCALLY THIS AFTERNOON...MAKING FOR VARYING
WIND DIRECTIONS. KJFK WOULD HAVE A SEA BREEZE AND SOUTHERLY FLOW
WHILE INTERIOR TERMINALS WIND WILL REMAIN NW OR SLIGHTLY BECOME MORE
NORTHERLY. CT COASTS WILL HAVE A SW FLOW BUT FOR KISP AND KLGA
REMAINS UNCERTAIN WHEN THE SEA BREEZE WILL ARRIVE.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH WITH THE CATEGORY FORECAST. CONFIDENCE IS
MODERATE WITH THE WIND FORECAST. SEA BREEZE TIMING COULD VARY
1-2 HOURS COMPARED TO FORECAST. WIND DIRECTION UNCERTAINTY OF 20-50
DEGREES WITH WIND FORECAST INTO EARLY EVENING. THIS RANGE OF WIND
DIRECTION WOULD LIKELY EXIST FOR TERMINALS N/W OF KJFK.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THU...
.SUN AFTN-SUN NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLE MVFR WITH SHOWERS LATE
AFTN INTO EARLY EVE.
.MON-TUE...POSSIBLE MVFR WITH SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT-WED NIGHT...VFR.
.THU...POSSIBLE MVFR WITH SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
MARGINAL SCA GUSTS ACROSS EASTERN LI SOUND AND ROUGH WATER NEAR
THE RACE THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE A WEAK PRES GRADIENT WILL
KEEP SUB-ADVSY CONDS ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

MARGINAL NW GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE ON THE
EASTERN OCEAN WATERS AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR CTZ005>008-
     010>012.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NYZ067>070-079-
     081.
NJ...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NJZ002-004-103-
     105-107.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...24/NV
NEAR TERM...NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...24/NV
HYDROLOGY...24/NV



000
FXUS61 KOKX 252000
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
400 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PERSIST OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF COAST STATES WILL TRACK TO
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY THURSDAY AND CONTINUING NORTHEAST INTO
THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MAY IMPACT THE AREA ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
UPPER LOW ELONGATES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT...WITH
SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE OHIO/TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVE SLIDING TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY DAYBREAK. THIS
WILL RESULT IN THE REGION BEING IN AN AREA OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BETWEEN THE CANADIAN MARITIME LOW AND LOW PRESSURE SLIDING THROUGH
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.

DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS. THE CAVEAT WILL BE NORTHERN EXTENT OF
CIRRUS SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TO THE SOUTH. MODELS ARE
GENERALLY KEEPING THIS CIRRUS SHIELD SKIRTING SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE REGION. SO HIGH POTENTIAL FOR FROST CONDITIONS ACROSS INTERIOR
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND CT AREAS TONIGHT...WITH A SLIGHTLY MODERATED
POTENTIAL ACROSS INTERIOR NE NJ AND EASTERN LI DUE TO CIRRUS
POTENTIAL. WILL ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUN
MORNING FOR THESE REGIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BEGINS TO PIVOTS
SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY...WITH WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
REFLECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN.

DAYTIME INSTABILITY...STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND
CONVERGENCE ALONG SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SCT-BKN AFT/EVE
INSTABILITY CU AND ISO-SCT SHOWER DEVELOPING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AND SINKING S/SE. HIGHEST COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS CT IN
VICINITY OF SURFACE TROUGH. GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWERS
WITH INVERTED V SOUNDING. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S.

UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO SINK SE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.
DIMINISHING SURFACE INSTABILITY AND CONVERGENCE SHOULD END ANY
SHOWER ACTIVITY...BUT MID-DECK SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGH APPEARS
TO SINK SOUTH OVER THE REGION. THIS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS SEVERAL
DEGREES MILDER SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A BLOCKY PATTERN LOOKS TO DOMINATE THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK
ACROSS THE CONUS. A LARGE PERSISTENT CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO PLAGUE THE NORTHEAST US THROUGH TUESDAY WHICH WILL
RESULT IN GENERALLY MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND SCT SHOWERS MON/MON
NIGHT AS SPOKES OF VORTICITY WITHIN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ROTATE THROUGH
THE AREA.

THIS CUTOFF FINALLY EXITS ON TUE WITH RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDING IN
TUE NIGHT AND WED. DRY CONDS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED.

MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS DIVERGENT WITH HOW QUICKLY THE RIDGE AXIS
MOVES THROUGH AND THE NEXT TROUGH APPROACHES. GFS IS FASTER THAN THE
EC. WHAT BOTH MODELS DO AGREE ON IS THE PHASING OF A NRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WITH A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS RESULTING IN A
DEEP TROUGH THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUE NIGHT. THE SFC LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CUTOFF TRACKS THROUGH THE GULF COAST STATES TO
OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST ON THU AND CONTINUES ON A NE TRACK
THROUGH FRI. HOWEVER DUE TO THE DIFFERENCES ALOFT THE EC IS
STRONGER...SLOWER AND CLOSER TO THE COAST...BUT CONTINUES TO REMAIN
WELL S OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE KEPT SCHC POPS ACROSS THE AREA THU
AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES DIVE DOWN FROM THE N DURING THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE PATTERN EARLIER IN THE
FORECAST...THIS IS VERY LOW CONFIDENCE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVELS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A LOW WEAKENS IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AS ANOTHER WEAK LOW PASSES
SOUTH OF THE REGION. VFR CONTINUES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WIND
GUSTS 15-20 KT WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING ALONG WITH VARIATION IN WIND DIRECTION.

A TROUGH LOOKS TO SET UP LOCALLY THIS AFTERNOON...MAKING FOR VARYING
WIND DIRECTIONS. KJFK WOULD HAVE A SEA BREEZE AND SOUTHERLY FLOW
WHILE INTERIOR TERMINALS WIND WILL REMAIN NW OR SLIGHTLY BECOME MORE
NORTHERLY. CT COASTS WILL HAVE A SW FLOW BUT FOR KISP AND KLGA
REMAINS UNCERTAIN WHEN THE SEA BREEZE WILL ARRIVE.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH WITH THE CATEGORY FORECAST. CONFIDENCE IS
MODERATE WITH THE WIND FORECAST. SEA BREEZE TIMING COULD VARY
1-2 HOURS COMPARED TO FORECAST. WIND DIRECTION UNCERTAINTY OF 20-50
DEGREES WITH WIND FORECAST INTO EARLY EVENING. THIS RANGE OF WIND
DIRECTION WOULD LIKELY EXIST FOR TERMINALS N/W OF KJFK.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THU...
.SUN AFTN-SUN NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLE MVFR WITH SHOWERS LATE
AFTN INTO EARLY EVE.
.MON-TUE...POSSIBLE MVFR WITH SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT-WED NIGHT...VFR.
.THU...POSSIBLE MVFR WITH SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
MARGINAL SCA GUSTS ACROSS EASTERN LI SOUND AND ROUGH WATER NEAR
THE RACE THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE A WEAK PRES GRADIENT WILL
KEEP SUB-ADVSY CONDS ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

MARGINAL NW GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE ON THE
EASTERN OCEAN WATERS AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR CTZ005>008-
     010>012.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NYZ067>070-079-
     081.
NJ...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NJZ002-004-103-
     105-107.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...24/NV
NEAR TERM...NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...24/NV
HYDROLOGY...24/NV




000
FXUS61 KOKX 251808
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
208 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER
INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FOR THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...FOLLOWED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECAST ON TRACK...WITH UPR LOW WILL DRIFTING S OF NOVA SCOTIA
TODAY. AT THE SAME TIME...LOW PRES WILL APPROACH THE NC COAST
TODAY AND OUT TO SEA ON SUNDAY.

THIS PUTS THE CWA IN A SUBSIDENT REGION TODAY...AND DESPITE THE
COLD POOL ALOFT...SHOULD SUPPRESS PCPN CHCS. SW PORTIONS OF THE
TRI-STATE WILL BE CLIPPED BY THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A CIRRUS
SHIELD...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TO THE NE. HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S...SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE.

SUBSIDENCE BEGINS TO WEAKEN TNGT...BUT INSTABILITY IS ALSO
REDUCED WITH THE LOSS OF SFC HEATING. POTENTIAL FOR FROST ACROSS
INTERIOR AND EASTERN LI PORTIONS OF THE TRI-STATE LATE TONIGHT
WITH WINDOW FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING.

INSTABILITY INCREASES DURING THE DAY ON SUN...WITH CONVECTIVE
TEMPS IN THE UPR 50S TO NEAR 60. SOME WEAK MID LVL LIFT SHOULD
HELP PROVIDE A TRIGGER. KEPT POPS LOW...BUT WENT WITH COVERAGE
WORDING. TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD CLOSE TO GMOS25.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
COOLING BL SUN NGT SO PCPN CHCS DIMINISH. STRONGER UPR SUPPORT ON
MON...SO PCPN COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE GREATER THAN SUN. CHANGED
WORDING TO SCT...WITH POPS AROUND 40 REASONABLE ATTM. CHCS AGAIN
WANE A BIT OVERNIGHT...BUT THERE IS A BETTER CHC AT SHWRS HANGING
IN PAST DARK WITH THE SHRTWV ENERGY MOVING THRU. ANOTHER CHC FOR
SOME ISOLD SHWRS TUE AFTN...ESPECIALLY CT AND PERHAPS LI...WITH
THE H5 LOW OVER 400 MILES E OF MONTAUK. DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST
AND THE UPR FORCING IS WEAK TO NON BY TUE NGT...SO A DRY FCST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A BROAD AREA OF HI PRES BUILDS OVER THE NERN CONUS ON WED. DRY WX
EXPECTED AS A RESULT. INCREASING HEIGHTS WILL ALLOW FOR A
NOTICEABLE WARMING TREND...WITH TEMPS APPROACHING 70 ALONG AND W
OF THE HUDSON. WITH WEAK FLOW...SEA BREEZES WILL LIKELY LIMIT
TEMPS ON LI AND CT. THE GFS BRINGS AN UPR LOW THRU IN THE THU-FRI
PERIOD. THE ECMWF BRINGS THIS UPR LEVEL SYS TO THE NC COAST AND
SPAWNS A 980S LOW OVER THE ATLC. THIS LOW IS PROGGED TO GENERALLY
TRACK TO THE ENE AND THEREFORE NOT IMPACT THE CWA. MADE NO CHANGES
TO POPS FOR THE PERIOD...KEEPING THE LOW CHCS ALREADY IN THE
GRIDS. TEMPS CLOSE TO GMOS25 FOR THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A LOW WEAKENS IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AS ANOTHER WEAK LOW PASSES
SOUTH OF THE REGION. VFR CONTINUES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WIND
GUSTS 15-20 KT WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING ALONG WITH VARIATION IN WIND DIRECTION.

A TROUGH LOOKS TO SET UP LOCALLY THIS AFTERNOON...MAKING FOR VARYING
WIND DIRECTIONS. KJFK WOULD HAVE A SEA BREEZE AND SOUTHERLY FLOW
WHILE INTERIOR TERMINALS WIND WILL REMAIN NW OR SLIGHTLY BECOME MORE
NORTHERLY. CT COASTS WILL HAVE A SW FLOW BUT KISP REMAINS
UNCERTAIN WHEN THE SEA BREEZE WILL ARRIVE. IT DOES REMAIN QUITE
POSSIBLE THOUGH.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH WITH THE CATEGORY FORECAST. CONFIDENCE IS
MODERATE WITH THE WIND FORECAST. SEA BREEZE TIMING COULD VARY
1-2 HOURS COMPARED TO FORECAST. WIND DIRECTION UNCERTAINTY OF 20-40
DEGREES WITH WIND FORECAST INTO EARLY EVENING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THU...
.SUN-SUN NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLE MVFR WITH SHOWERS LATE AFTN
INTO EARLY EVE.
.MON-TUE...POSSIBLE MVFR WITH SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT-WED NIGHT...VFR.
.THU...POSSIBLE MVFR WITH SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
MARGINAL SCA GUSTS ACROSS EASTERN LI SOUND AND ROUGH WATER NEAR
THE RACE THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE SUB- SCA CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY WORKS SLOWLY EAST.
THERE COULD BE A SHORT PERIOD TUE MORNING FOR MARGI9NAL SCA GUSTS
AS A NLY FLOW STRENGTHENS BETWEEN A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
WEST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MIN RH WILL FALL INTO THE 20S THIS AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS ARE FCST
TO BE IN THE 15-20 MPH RANGE...WHICH IS BLW RED FLAG CRITERIA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC
NEAR TERM...JMC/NV
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...DW/NV
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JMC




000
FXUS61 KOKX 251808
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
208 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER
INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FOR THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...FOLLOWED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECAST ON TRACK...WITH UPR LOW WILL DRIFTING S OF NOVA SCOTIA
TODAY. AT THE SAME TIME...LOW PRES WILL APPROACH THE NC COAST
TODAY AND OUT TO SEA ON SUNDAY.

THIS PUTS THE CWA IN A SUBSIDENT REGION TODAY...AND DESPITE THE
COLD POOL ALOFT...SHOULD SUPPRESS PCPN CHCS. SW PORTIONS OF THE
TRI-STATE WILL BE CLIPPED BY THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A CIRRUS
SHIELD...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TO THE NE. HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S...SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE.

SUBSIDENCE BEGINS TO WEAKEN TNGT...BUT INSTABILITY IS ALSO
REDUCED WITH THE LOSS OF SFC HEATING. POTENTIAL FOR FROST ACROSS
INTERIOR AND EASTERN LI PORTIONS OF THE TRI-STATE LATE TONIGHT
WITH WINDOW FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING.

INSTABILITY INCREASES DURING THE DAY ON SUN...WITH CONVECTIVE
TEMPS IN THE UPR 50S TO NEAR 60. SOME WEAK MID LVL LIFT SHOULD
HELP PROVIDE A TRIGGER. KEPT POPS LOW...BUT WENT WITH COVERAGE
WORDING. TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD CLOSE TO GMOS25.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
COOLING BL SUN NGT SO PCPN CHCS DIMINISH. STRONGER UPR SUPPORT ON
MON...SO PCPN COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE GREATER THAN SUN. CHANGED
WORDING TO SCT...WITH POPS AROUND 40 REASONABLE ATTM. CHCS AGAIN
WANE A BIT OVERNIGHT...BUT THERE IS A BETTER CHC AT SHWRS HANGING
IN PAST DARK WITH THE SHRTWV ENERGY MOVING THRU. ANOTHER CHC FOR
SOME ISOLD SHWRS TUE AFTN...ESPECIALLY CT AND PERHAPS LI...WITH
THE H5 LOW OVER 400 MILES E OF MONTAUK. DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST
AND THE UPR FORCING IS WEAK TO NON BY TUE NGT...SO A DRY FCST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A BROAD AREA OF HI PRES BUILDS OVER THE NERN CONUS ON WED. DRY WX
EXPECTED AS A RESULT. INCREASING HEIGHTS WILL ALLOW FOR A
NOTICEABLE WARMING TREND...WITH TEMPS APPROACHING 70 ALONG AND W
OF THE HUDSON. WITH WEAK FLOW...SEA BREEZES WILL LIKELY LIMIT
TEMPS ON LI AND CT. THE GFS BRINGS AN UPR LOW THRU IN THE THU-FRI
PERIOD. THE ECMWF BRINGS THIS UPR LEVEL SYS TO THE NC COAST AND
SPAWNS A 980S LOW OVER THE ATLC. THIS LOW IS PROGGED TO GENERALLY
TRACK TO THE ENE AND THEREFORE NOT IMPACT THE CWA. MADE NO CHANGES
TO POPS FOR THE PERIOD...KEEPING THE LOW CHCS ALREADY IN THE
GRIDS. TEMPS CLOSE TO GMOS25 FOR THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A LOW WEAKENS IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AS ANOTHER WEAK LOW PASSES
SOUTH OF THE REGION. VFR CONTINUES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WIND
GUSTS 15-20 KT WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING ALONG WITH VARIATION IN WIND DIRECTION.

A TROUGH LOOKS TO SET UP LOCALLY THIS AFTERNOON...MAKING FOR VARYING
WIND DIRECTIONS. KJFK WOULD HAVE A SEA BREEZE AND SOUTHERLY FLOW
WHILE INTERIOR TERMINALS WIND WILL REMAIN NW OR SLIGHTLY BECOME MORE
NORTHERLY. CT COASTS WILL HAVE A SW FLOW BUT KISP REMAINS
UNCERTAIN WHEN THE SEA BREEZE WILL ARRIVE. IT DOES REMAIN QUITE
POSSIBLE THOUGH.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH WITH THE CATEGORY FORECAST. CONFIDENCE IS
MODERATE WITH THE WIND FORECAST. SEA BREEZE TIMING COULD VARY
1-2 HOURS COMPARED TO FORECAST. WIND DIRECTION UNCERTAINTY OF 20-40
DEGREES WITH WIND FORECAST INTO EARLY EVENING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THU...
.SUN-SUN NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLE MVFR WITH SHOWERS LATE AFTN
INTO EARLY EVE.
.MON-TUE...POSSIBLE MVFR WITH SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT-WED NIGHT...VFR.
.THU...POSSIBLE MVFR WITH SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
MARGINAL SCA GUSTS ACROSS EASTERN LI SOUND AND ROUGH WATER NEAR
THE RACE THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE SUB- SCA CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY WORKS SLOWLY EAST.
THERE COULD BE A SHORT PERIOD TUE MORNING FOR MARGI9NAL SCA GUSTS
AS A NLY FLOW STRENGTHENS BETWEEN A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
WEST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MIN RH WILL FALL INTO THE 20S THIS AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS ARE FCST
TO BE IN THE 15-20 MPH RANGE...WHICH IS BLW RED FLAG CRITERIA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC
NEAR TERM...JMC/NV
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...DW/NV
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JMC



000
FXUS61 KBOX 251744
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
144 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH
SPOTTY SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES. PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF NEXT
WEEK AS WELL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
145 PM UPDATE...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS
STREAMING INTO NORTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW EAST OF SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. EXCEPTIONS ARE PORTIONS OF
THE OUTER CAPE AND ISLANDS WHERE TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE UPPER
40S. GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE WITH MOST GUSTS AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
WEAK RIDGE BUILDS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT...PROVIDING
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE 30S...SO MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE 30S
ONCE MORE.

FOR SUNDAY...THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO
OUR REGION. THUS WE WILL BE IN A MORE FAVORABLE POSITION FOR
DIURNAL CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. SO...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE OVER THE
LAST SEVERAL DAYS...SKIES SHOULD START OFF PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY.
THEN CLOUDS DEVELOP ALONG WITH A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
NEAR AND NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE. EXPECTING MAX TEMPERATURES TO BE
MAINLY IN THE 50S. IF A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE WORKS THROUGH THE
CLOUDS ACROSS THE LOWER CT VALLEY...READINGS MAY TOUCH 60 IN A FEW
SPOTS THERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT WEEK
* SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS MONDAY AND TUESDAY
* HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY
* LOW CONFIDENCE ON COASTAL SYSTEM THURS/FRIDAY

OVERVIEW...

STRETCHED CLOSED LOW OVER THE REGION WILL BRING SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
THROUGH THE FLOW MONDAY AND INTO EARLY TUESDAY. NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE APPEARS TO PUSH CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST
KICKING THIS LOW OUT TO SEA BY WEDNESDAY.

BEYOND THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN AS GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SPLIT. OVERALL APPEARS UNSETTLED WEATHER AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUE AS BLOCKING PATTERN PERSIST...SUPPORTED BY
-NAO/-AO/+PNA. BOTH MODELS AGREE IN BREAKING THE RIDGE DOWN FAIRLY
QUICKLY ON WEDNESDAY. AMONG THE OPERATIONAL MODELS THE PAST COUPLE
ECMWF RUNS AND NEW 00Z UKMET SEEM TO FORM ONE CLUSTER THAT IS QUITE
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE DEPTH/CLOSURE OF ENERGY FROM THE GREAT LAKES
INTO MID ATLC...AND STILL WITH VERY DIFFERENT SFC SOLNS...WHILE SOME
RECENT GFS RUNS AND THE 00Z/24 ECMWF WERE MOST PRONOUNCED IN
BRINGING TRAILING NERN PAC AND/OR CANADIAN ENERGY ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST AS A CONCENTRATED UPR LOW LATE IN THE PERIOD.  THE LATTER
FEATURE WOULD BRING DEEP SFC LOW PRES CLOSE TO NEW ENGLAND OR AT
LEAST THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AS IN THE THE NEW 00Z GFS. REGARDLESS
BOTH CAMPS CONTINUE TO PUT THE EASTERN CONUS IN A DEEP TROUGH AT THE
END OF THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. THEREFORE FELT ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE WAS BEST FOR THE WORK WEEK FORECAST.

DETAILS...

* MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN BRINGING ITS COOL POOL
OVER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. CHANCES OF PRECIP HAS INCREASED...ESP ON
MONDAY AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW FROM THE NORTH.
EXPECT SCT DIURNAL SHOWERS AS COLD POOL ALOFT WILL BE SITTING OVER
THE REGION. PRECIP CHANCES ARE SLIGHTLY LOWER ON TUESDAY AS COLD
POOL AND UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGIN TO MOVE OFFSHORE...ESP LATE IN THE
DAY. TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON
MONDAY AND ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY.

* WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

DIGGING TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL PUSH RIDGE OVER THE
REGION. THIS WILL GIVE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND A BREAK IN PRECIP AND
TEMPS NEAR NORMAL. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER
THANKS TO PERSISTENT NORTHERLY FLOW.

* THURSDAY AND BEYOND...LOW CONFIDENCE.

STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. EVERYTHING
IS DEPENDENT ON HOW THE CUT-OFF LOW IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND
DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM WAVES BEHAVES.  REGARDLESS APPEARS DEEP
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP PUTTING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BACK BELOW NORMAL
FOR TEMPS WITH AN INCREASE IN UNSETTLED WEATHER. STILL WATCHING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL LOW ON THURSDAY/FRIDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND EC
HAVE PUSHED THE LOW OUT TO SEA...OR FOCUSED ON THE MID-ATLANTIC
WHERE THE ENSEMBLES KEEP IT NEAR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. STILL A LOT
OF UNCERTAINTY AND WILL NEED TO WAIT UNTIL MODELS CAN GET A BETTER
SAMPLE ON THE SHORTWAVES WHEN THEY COME OFF THE PACIFIC.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THROUGH 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. NW WINDS GUSTING AROUND 20
KNOTS.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS. SEA BREEZES
LIKELY. POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR IN SPOTTY SHOWERS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS. POSSIBLE
BRIEF MVFR IN SPOTTY SHOWERS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF. LOW CONFIDENCE IN LATE
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THOUGH WEDNESDAY...

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
IN SCT SHOWERS. SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST
COAST.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS GUST TO 20 KT...WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KT
OFFSHORE. SEAS LINGER NEAR 5 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS THIS
MORNING...THEN SUBSIDE.

TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA. EXPECT NW WINDS TO SHIFT TO NE SUNDAY...BUT REMAIN
BELOW 15 KT. SEA BREEZES LIKELY SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THOUGHT WEDNESDAY...

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO SPIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. HIT OR MISS SHOWERS POSSIBLE
DURING THE DAY. WIND AND SEAS TO REMAINS BELOW SCA ON SUNDAY. POTENT
COLD POOL WILL FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH CREATING STRONG CAA AN
INCREASE WINDS/SEAS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SCA MAY BE NEEDED.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH KEEPING SEAS AND WINDS BELOW SCA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...BELK/RLG
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...DUNTEN/RLG
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 251744
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
144 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH
SPOTTY SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES. PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF NEXT
WEEK AS WELL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
145 PM UPDATE...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS
STREAMING INTO NORTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW EAST OF SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. EXCEPTIONS ARE PORTIONS OF
THE OUTER CAPE AND ISLANDS WHERE TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE UPPER
40S. GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE WITH MOST GUSTS AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
WEAK RIDGE BUILDS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT...PROVIDING
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE 30S...SO MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE 30S
ONCE MORE.

FOR SUNDAY...THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO
OUR REGION. THUS WE WILL BE IN A MORE FAVORABLE POSITION FOR
DIURNAL CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. SO...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE OVER THE
LAST SEVERAL DAYS...SKIES SHOULD START OFF PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY.
THEN CLOUDS DEVELOP ALONG WITH A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
NEAR AND NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE. EXPECTING MAX TEMPERATURES TO BE
MAINLY IN THE 50S. IF A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE WORKS THROUGH THE
CLOUDS ACROSS THE LOWER CT VALLEY...READINGS MAY TOUCH 60 IN A FEW
SPOTS THERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT WEEK
* SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS MONDAY AND TUESDAY
* HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY
* LOW CONFIDENCE ON COASTAL SYSTEM THURS/FRIDAY

OVERVIEW...

STRETCHED CLOSED LOW OVER THE REGION WILL BRING SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
THROUGH THE FLOW MONDAY AND INTO EARLY TUESDAY. NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE APPEARS TO PUSH CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST
KICKING THIS LOW OUT TO SEA BY WEDNESDAY.

BEYOND THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN AS GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SPLIT. OVERALL APPEARS UNSETTLED WEATHER AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUE AS BLOCKING PATTERN PERSIST...SUPPORTED BY
-NAO/-AO/+PNA. BOTH MODELS AGREE IN BREAKING THE RIDGE DOWN FAIRLY
QUICKLY ON WEDNESDAY. AMONG THE OPERATIONAL MODELS THE PAST COUPLE
ECMWF RUNS AND NEW 00Z UKMET SEEM TO FORM ONE CLUSTER THAT IS QUITE
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE DEPTH/CLOSURE OF ENERGY FROM THE GREAT LAKES
INTO MID ATLC...AND STILL WITH VERY DIFFERENT SFC SOLNS...WHILE SOME
RECENT GFS RUNS AND THE 00Z/24 ECMWF WERE MOST PRONOUNCED IN
BRINGING TRAILING NERN PAC AND/OR CANADIAN ENERGY ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST AS A CONCENTRATED UPR LOW LATE IN THE PERIOD.  THE LATTER
FEATURE WOULD BRING DEEP SFC LOW PRES CLOSE TO NEW ENGLAND OR AT
LEAST THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AS IN THE THE NEW 00Z GFS. REGARDLESS
BOTH CAMPS CONTINUE TO PUT THE EASTERN CONUS IN A DEEP TROUGH AT THE
END OF THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. THEREFORE FELT ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE WAS BEST FOR THE WORK WEEK FORECAST.

DETAILS...

* MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN BRINGING ITS COOL POOL
OVER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. CHANCES OF PRECIP HAS INCREASED...ESP ON
MONDAY AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW FROM THE NORTH.
EXPECT SCT DIURNAL SHOWERS AS COLD POOL ALOFT WILL BE SITTING OVER
THE REGION. PRECIP CHANCES ARE SLIGHTLY LOWER ON TUESDAY AS COLD
POOL AND UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGIN TO MOVE OFFSHORE...ESP LATE IN THE
DAY. TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON
MONDAY AND ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY.

* WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

DIGGING TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL PUSH RIDGE OVER THE
REGION. THIS WILL GIVE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND A BREAK IN PRECIP AND
TEMPS NEAR NORMAL. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER
THANKS TO PERSISTENT NORTHERLY FLOW.

* THURSDAY AND BEYOND...LOW CONFIDENCE.

STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. EVERYTHING
IS DEPENDENT ON HOW THE CUT-OFF LOW IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND
DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM WAVES BEHAVES.  REGARDLESS APPEARS DEEP
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP PUTTING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BACK BELOW NORMAL
FOR TEMPS WITH AN INCREASE IN UNSETTLED WEATHER. STILL WATCHING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL LOW ON THURSDAY/FRIDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND EC
HAVE PUSHED THE LOW OUT TO SEA...OR FOCUSED ON THE MID-ATLANTIC
WHERE THE ENSEMBLES KEEP IT NEAR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. STILL A LOT
OF UNCERTAINTY AND WILL NEED TO WAIT UNTIL MODELS CAN GET A BETTER
SAMPLE ON THE SHORTWAVES WHEN THEY COME OFF THE PACIFIC.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THROUGH 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. NW WINDS GUSTING AROUND 20
KNOTS.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS. SEA BREEZES
LIKELY. POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR IN SPOTTY SHOWERS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS. POSSIBLE
BRIEF MVFR IN SPOTTY SHOWERS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF. LOW CONFIDENCE IN LATE
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THOUGH WEDNESDAY...

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
IN SCT SHOWERS. SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST
COAST.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS GUST TO 20 KT...WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KT
OFFSHORE. SEAS LINGER NEAR 5 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS THIS
MORNING...THEN SUBSIDE.

TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA. EXPECT NW WINDS TO SHIFT TO NE SUNDAY...BUT REMAIN
BELOW 15 KT. SEA BREEZES LIKELY SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THOUGHT WEDNESDAY...

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO SPIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. HIT OR MISS SHOWERS POSSIBLE
DURING THE DAY. WIND AND SEAS TO REMAINS BELOW SCA ON SUNDAY. POTENT
COLD POOL WILL FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH CREATING STRONG CAA AN
INCREASE WINDS/SEAS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SCA MAY BE NEEDED.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH KEEPING SEAS AND WINDS BELOW SCA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...BELK/RLG
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...DUNTEN/RLG
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KALY 251717
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
117 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LEVEL STORM HAS MOVED JUST FAR ENOUGH AWAY OF
THE GULF OF MAINE TO ALLOW FOR MORE SUNSHINE AND LESS COOL
TEMPERATURES TODAY. IT WILL HOWEVER WOBBLE BACK INTO MAINE ON SUNDAY
WHICH WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AGAIN SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. &&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

AS OF 1015 AM EDT...STILL LOOKING AT
A MAINLY CLEAR SKY EXCEPT FOR OUR ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS
WHERE A FEW MORE INSTABILITY CLOUD HAVE FORMED.

OVERALL FORECAST LOOKS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THINGS...SO WITH
THIS UPDATE JUST SOME VERY MINOR TWEAKS OF THE HOURLY GRIDS. NO
CHANGES TO HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON.

A WEAK ANTICYLONIC FLOW (AS OPPOSED TO A CYCLONIC ONE) SHOULD ALLOW
OUR REGION TO REMAIN RATHER TRANQUIL TODAY. THE ONLY MINOR EXCEPTION
TO THIS WOULD BE SOME INFLUENCE OF LAKE ONTARIO ALONG WITH UPSLOPE
INTO THE DACKS WHERE A SHOWER OR TWO COULD DEVELOP COINCIDING WITH
THE MAX HEATING OF THE DAY. DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU/SC EXPECTED WITH
HIGHS MAINLY INTO THE 50S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND 40S FOR THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE NEXT ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH AXIS JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES REGION BEGINS TO MIGRATE SOUTHWARD TONIGHT. PER THE
NCEP MODEL SUITE...TIMING OF THIS FEATURE WILL DELAY THE ONSET OF
PRECIP AS WE WILL KEEP MOST OF THE REGION DRY TONIGHT. A MIXTURE
OF CLOUDS AND STARS WILL ALLOW FOR DIVERSE TEMPERATURE RANGES FROM
20S INTO THE TERRAIN AND MID 30S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH AXIS SLIDES FURTHER SOUTHWARD
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR BOTH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVERAGE AND PROBABILITIES FOR SHOWERS. THE SHOWERS WILL INITIALLY
BE CONFINED MAINLY INTO THE TERRAIN ON SUNDAY THEN A MORE COVERAGE
IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY. IN FACT...MONDAY WE WILL SEE WARM
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM THE NORTH AS THE UPPER LOW
COMPLETELY WRAPS IN ATLANTIC MOISTURE. DUE TO THE CLOUD COVERAGE
AND THE INCREASE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS...THIS TOO WILL HAVE AN
IMPACT TO THE TEMPERATURES AS WILL SHAVE OFF A DEGREE OR TWO FROM
MOS GUIDANCE. SOME OF THE HIGHEST TERRAIN WILL LIKELY SEE SOME
RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS.

THIS LAST PIECE OF ENERGY QUICKLY MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
AS DEEPENING CYCLOGENSIS COMMENCES WELL EAST OF THE COASTLINE.
THIS TOO WILL QUICKLY END THE PRECIP FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT. SOME PARTIAL CLEARING WILL COMMENCE BUT DUE TO THE
WARMING THERMAL PROFILES...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A LITTLE MILDER
WITH LOWS GENERALLY RANGING FROM 35-45F.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE SLOW MOVING CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY BE MOVING AWAY
FROM THE REGION BY TUESDAY. ASIDE FROM AN EARLY MORNING RAIN SHOWER
IN FAR EASTERN AREAS...DRY WEATHER WITH A PARTLY SUNNY SKY IS
EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY WITH TEMPS REBOUNDING BACK TOWARDS SEASONAL
VALUES...OF LOW TO MID 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS...AND MID TO UPPER 50S
FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN.

WITH WEAK RIDGING AT 500 HPA BUILDING INTO THE REGION...DRY WEATHER
WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS WILL CONTINUE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WED
NIGHT. HIGHS LOOK MAINLY IN THE 60S...AND LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO MID
40S...WITH SKIES PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR.

THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW THE END OF THE WEEK PLAYS
OUT...GENERALLY DUE TO THE UNPREDICTABLE NATURE OF THE MOVEMENT OF
ADDITIONAL CUTOFF LOWS. WHILE SOME MODELS /SUCH AS THE 00Z GFS/
SUGGEST THAT A CUTOFF LOW WILL DIVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM CANADA
FOR THURSDAY/FRI...OTHER MODELS /SUCH AS THE 00Z ECMWF AND 00Z GEM/
EITHER KEEP THESE SYSTEMS ACROSS CANADA OR OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US.
ALSO...WHILE MOST DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE SEEMED TO BACK OFF THIS
IDEA...THERE IS ALSO THE CHANCE THAT THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN US COULD DEVELOP A SFC COASTAL LOW THAT MOVES UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD FOR THE LATE WEEK OR INTO THE WEEKEND...AS SEEN IN
A FEW MEMBERS OF THE 00Z GEFS.

WITH ALL THIS IN MIND...WILL GO WITH SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS FOR
THURSDAY/FRI FOR RAIN SHOWERS FOR NOW...BUT THIS WILL BE SUBJECT TO
CHANGE DEPENDING ON MODEL TRENDS. WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST TEMPS
NEAR NORMAL LEVELS...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE A COOLER IF MORE CLOUDS/RAIN
SHOWERS OCCUR...ESP WITH THE LOWER HEIGHTS OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVERHEAD.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.
AS OUR REGION IS ON THE WEST SIDE OF AN ALMOST STATIONARY UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND SOME GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE THROUGH 00Z
SUNDAY. ONCE WE GO PAST 00Z SUNDAY...MORE FEW TO SCT CLOUD
COVERAGE WILL BEGIN TO WORK BACK INTO THE REGION. BKN CEILINGS
POSSIBLE AT KGFL CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BUT
STILL IN VFR CRITERIA. CLOUDS WILL BE AT ALL TAF SITES AT VARYING
COVERAGE PAST 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD
REMAINING AT VFR CONDITIONS.

WINDS WILL BE GUSTING AT OR ABOVE 10 KNOTS OUT OF THE NW AT
KGFL/KALB BEFORE 00Z. WINDS AT ALL TAF SITES WILL BE NEAR CALM FROM
00Z-12Z SUNDAY BEFORE GUSTING BETWEEN 5-10 KNOTS OUT OF THE WNW 12Z
SUNDAY THROUGH END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM 25 TO 35
PERCENT...

A MAINLY DRY DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION WITH A NORTHERLY WIND
BETWEEN 10 AND 18 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS INTO THE 20 MPH
RANGE. PARTIAL CLOUD COVERAGE TONIGHT WITH A RECOVERY OF RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES BETWEEN 70 AND 90 PERCENT.

THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE IN
THE FORECAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES ELEVATED WITH MINIMUM VALUES ON SUNDAY RANGING FROM 35
TO 45 PERCENT...THEN 40 TO 60 PERCENT ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION. ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION
WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR
HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA /HSA/.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/BGM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...LFM
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM



000
FXUS61 KALY 251717
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
117 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LEVEL STORM HAS MOVED JUST FAR ENOUGH AWAY OF
THE GULF OF MAINE TO ALLOW FOR MORE SUNSHINE AND LESS COOL
TEMPERATURES TODAY. IT WILL HOWEVER WOBBLE BACK INTO MAINE ON SUNDAY
WHICH WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AGAIN SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. &&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

AS OF 1015 AM EDT...STILL LOOKING AT
A MAINLY CLEAR SKY EXCEPT FOR OUR ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS
WHERE A FEW MORE INSTABILITY CLOUD HAVE FORMED.

OVERALL FORECAST LOOKS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THINGS...SO WITH
THIS UPDATE JUST SOME VERY MINOR TWEAKS OF THE HOURLY GRIDS. NO
CHANGES TO HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON.

A WEAK ANTICYLONIC FLOW (AS OPPOSED TO A CYCLONIC ONE) SHOULD ALLOW
OUR REGION TO REMAIN RATHER TRANQUIL TODAY. THE ONLY MINOR EXCEPTION
TO THIS WOULD BE SOME INFLUENCE OF LAKE ONTARIO ALONG WITH UPSLOPE
INTO THE DACKS WHERE A SHOWER OR TWO COULD DEVELOP COINCIDING WITH
THE MAX HEATING OF THE DAY. DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU/SC EXPECTED WITH
HIGHS MAINLY INTO THE 50S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND 40S FOR THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE NEXT ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH AXIS JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES REGION BEGINS TO MIGRATE SOUTHWARD TONIGHT. PER THE
NCEP MODEL SUITE...TIMING OF THIS FEATURE WILL DELAY THE ONSET OF
PRECIP AS WE WILL KEEP MOST OF THE REGION DRY TONIGHT. A MIXTURE
OF CLOUDS AND STARS WILL ALLOW FOR DIVERSE TEMPERATURE RANGES FROM
20S INTO THE TERRAIN AND MID 30S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH AXIS SLIDES FURTHER SOUTHWARD
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR BOTH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVERAGE AND PROBABILITIES FOR SHOWERS. THE SHOWERS WILL INITIALLY
BE CONFINED MAINLY INTO THE TERRAIN ON SUNDAY THEN A MORE COVERAGE
IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY. IN FACT...MONDAY WE WILL SEE WARM
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM THE NORTH AS THE UPPER LOW
COMPLETELY WRAPS IN ATLANTIC MOISTURE. DUE TO THE CLOUD COVERAGE
AND THE INCREASE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS...THIS TOO WILL HAVE AN
IMPACT TO THE TEMPERATURES AS WILL SHAVE OFF A DEGREE OR TWO FROM
MOS GUIDANCE. SOME OF THE HIGHEST TERRAIN WILL LIKELY SEE SOME
RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS.

THIS LAST PIECE OF ENERGY QUICKLY MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
AS DEEPENING CYCLOGENSIS COMMENCES WELL EAST OF THE COASTLINE.
THIS TOO WILL QUICKLY END THE PRECIP FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT. SOME PARTIAL CLEARING WILL COMMENCE BUT DUE TO THE
WARMING THERMAL PROFILES...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A LITTLE MILDER
WITH LOWS GENERALLY RANGING FROM 35-45F.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE SLOW MOVING CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY BE MOVING AWAY
FROM THE REGION BY TUESDAY. ASIDE FROM AN EARLY MORNING RAIN SHOWER
IN FAR EASTERN AREAS...DRY WEATHER WITH A PARTLY SUNNY SKY IS
EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY WITH TEMPS REBOUNDING BACK TOWARDS SEASONAL
VALUES...OF LOW TO MID 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS...AND MID TO UPPER 50S
FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN.

WITH WEAK RIDGING AT 500 HPA BUILDING INTO THE REGION...DRY WEATHER
WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS WILL CONTINUE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WED
NIGHT. HIGHS LOOK MAINLY IN THE 60S...AND LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO MID
40S...WITH SKIES PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR.

THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW THE END OF THE WEEK PLAYS
OUT...GENERALLY DUE TO THE UNPREDICTABLE NATURE OF THE MOVEMENT OF
ADDITIONAL CUTOFF LOWS. WHILE SOME MODELS /SUCH AS THE 00Z GFS/
SUGGEST THAT A CUTOFF LOW WILL DIVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM CANADA
FOR THURSDAY/FRI...OTHER MODELS /SUCH AS THE 00Z ECMWF AND 00Z GEM/
EITHER KEEP THESE SYSTEMS ACROSS CANADA OR OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US.
ALSO...WHILE MOST DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE SEEMED TO BACK OFF THIS
IDEA...THERE IS ALSO THE CHANCE THAT THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN US COULD DEVELOP A SFC COASTAL LOW THAT MOVES UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD FOR THE LATE WEEK OR INTO THE WEEKEND...AS SEEN IN
A FEW MEMBERS OF THE 00Z GEFS.

WITH ALL THIS IN MIND...WILL GO WITH SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS FOR
THURSDAY/FRI FOR RAIN SHOWERS FOR NOW...BUT THIS WILL BE SUBJECT TO
CHANGE DEPENDING ON MODEL TRENDS. WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST TEMPS
NEAR NORMAL LEVELS...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE A COOLER IF MORE CLOUDS/RAIN
SHOWERS OCCUR...ESP WITH THE LOWER HEIGHTS OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVERHEAD.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.
AS OUR REGION IS ON THE WEST SIDE OF AN ALMOST STATIONARY UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND SOME GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE THROUGH 00Z
SUNDAY. ONCE WE GO PAST 00Z SUNDAY...MORE FEW TO SCT CLOUD
COVERAGE WILL BEGIN TO WORK BACK INTO THE REGION. BKN CEILINGS
POSSIBLE AT KGFL CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BUT
STILL IN VFR CRITERIA. CLOUDS WILL BE AT ALL TAF SITES AT VARYING
COVERAGE PAST 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD
REMAINING AT VFR CONDITIONS.

WINDS WILL BE GUSTING AT OR ABOVE 10 KNOTS OUT OF THE NW AT
KGFL/KALB BEFORE 00Z. WINDS AT ALL TAF SITES WILL BE NEAR CALM FROM
00Z-12Z SUNDAY BEFORE GUSTING BETWEEN 5-10 KNOTS OUT OF THE WNW 12Z
SUNDAY THROUGH END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM 25 TO 35
PERCENT...

A MAINLY DRY DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION WITH A NORTHERLY WIND
BETWEEN 10 AND 18 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS INTO THE 20 MPH
RANGE. PARTIAL CLOUD COVERAGE TONIGHT WITH A RECOVERY OF RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES BETWEEN 70 AND 90 PERCENT.

THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE IN
THE FORECAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES ELEVATED WITH MINIMUM VALUES ON SUNDAY RANGING FROM 35
TO 45 PERCENT...THEN 40 TO 60 PERCENT ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION. ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION
WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR
HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA /HSA/.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/BGM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...LFM
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM



000
FXUS61 KALY 251717
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
117 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LEVEL STORM HAS MOVED JUST FAR ENOUGH AWAY OF
THE GULF OF MAINE TO ALLOW FOR MORE SUNSHINE AND LESS COOL
TEMPERATURES TODAY. IT WILL HOWEVER WOBBLE BACK INTO MAINE ON SUNDAY
WHICH WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AGAIN SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. &&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

AS OF 1015 AM EDT...STILL LOOKING AT
A MAINLY CLEAR SKY EXCEPT FOR OUR ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS
WHERE A FEW MORE INSTABILITY CLOUD HAVE FORMED.

OVERALL FORECAST LOOKS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THINGS...SO WITH
THIS UPDATE JUST SOME VERY MINOR TWEAKS OF THE HOURLY GRIDS. NO
CHANGES TO HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON.

A WEAK ANTICYLONIC FLOW (AS OPPOSED TO A CYCLONIC ONE) SHOULD ALLOW
OUR REGION TO REMAIN RATHER TRANQUIL TODAY. THE ONLY MINOR EXCEPTION
TO THIS WOULD BE SOME INFLUENCE OF LAKE ONTARIO ALONG WITH UPSLOPE
INTO THE DACKS WHERE A SHOWER OR TWO COULD DEVELOP COINCIDING WITH
THE MAX HEATING OF THE DAY. DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU/SC EXPECTED WITH
HIGHS MAINLY INTO THE 50S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND 40S FOR THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE NEXT ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH AXIS JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES REGION BEGINS TO MIGRATE SOUTHWARD TONIGHT. PER THE
NCEP MODEL SUITE...TIMING OF THIS FEATURE WILL DELAY THE ONSET OF
PRECIP AS WE WILL KEEP MOST OF THE REGION DRY TONIGHT. A MIXTURE
OF CLOUDS AND STARS WILL ALLOW FOR DIVERSE TEMPERATURE RANGES FROM
20S INTO THE TERRAIN AND MID 30S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH AXIS SLIDES FURTHER SOUTHWARD
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR BOTH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVERAGE AND PROBABILITIES FOR SHOWERS. THE SHOWERS WILL INITIALLY
BE CONFINED MAINLY INTO THE TERRAIN ON SUNDAY THEN A MORE COVERAGE
IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY. IN FACT...MONDAY WE WILL SEE WARM
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM THE NORTH AS THE UPPER LOW
COMPLETELY WRAPS IN ATLANTIC MOISTURE. DUE TO THE CLOUD COVERAGE
AND THE INCREASE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS...THIS TOO WILL HAVE AN
IMPACT TO THE TEMPERATURES AS WILL SHAVE OFF A DEGREE OR TWO FROM
MOS GUIDANCE. SOME OF THE HIGHEST TERRAIN WILL LIKELY SEE SOME
RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS.

THIS LAST PIECE OF ENERGY QUICKLY MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
AS DEEPENING CYCLOGENSIS COMMENCES WELL EAST OF THE COASTLINE.
THIS TOO WILL QUICKLY END THE PRECIP FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT. SOME PARTIAL CLEARING WILL COMMENCE BUT DUE TO THE
WARMING THERMAL PROFILES...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A LITTLE MILDER
WITH LOWS GENERALLY RANGING FROM 35-45F.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE SLOW MOVING CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY BE MOVING AWAY
FROM THE REGION BY TUESDAY. ASIDE FROM AN EARLY MORNING RAIN SHOWER
IN FAR EASTERN AREAS...DRY WEATHER WITH A PARTLY SUNNY SKY IS
EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY WITH TEMPS REBOUNDING BACK TOWARDS SEASONAL
VALUES...OF LOW TO MID 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS...AND MID TO UPPER 50S
FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN.

WITH WEAK RIDGING AT 500 HPA BUILDING INTO THE REGION...DRY WEATHER
WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS WILL CONTINUE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WED
NIGHT. HIGHS LOOK MAINLY IN THE 60S...AND LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO MID
40S...WITH SKIES PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR.

THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW THE END OF THE WEEK PLAYS
OUT...GENERALLY DUE TO THE UNPREDICTABLE NATURE OF THE MOVEMENT OF
ADDITIONAL CUTOFF LOWS. WHILE SOME MODELS /SUCH AS THE 00Z GFS/
SUGGEST THAT A CUTOFF LOW WILL DIVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM CANADA
FOR THURSDAY/FRI...OTHER MODELS /SUCH AS THE 00Z ECMWF AND 00Z GEM/
EITHER KEEP THESE SYSTEMS ACROSS CANADA OR OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US.
ALSO...WHILE MOST DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE SEEMED TO BACK OFF THIS
IDEA...THERE IS ALSO THE CHANCE THAT THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN US COULD DEVELOP A SFC COASTAL LOW THAT MOVES UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD FOR THE LATE WEEK OR INTO THE WEEKEND...AS SEEN IN
A FEW MEMBERS OF THE 00Z GEFS.

WITH ALL THIS IN MIND...WILL GO WITH SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS FOR
THURSDAY/FRI FOR RAIN SHOWERS FOR NOW...BUT THIS WILL BE SUBJECT TO
CHANGE DEPENDING ON MODEL TRENDS. WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST TEMPS
NEAR NORMAL LEVELS...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE A COOLER IF MORE CLOUDS/RAIN
SHOWERS OCCUR...ESP WITH THE LOWER HEIGHTS OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVERHEAD.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.
AS OUR REGION IS ON THE WEST SIDE OF AN ALMOST STATIONARY UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND SOME GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE THROUGH 00Z
SUNDAY. ONCE WE GO PAST 00Z SUNDAY...MORE FEW TO SCT CLOUD
COVERAGE WILL BEGIN TO WORK BACK INTO THE REGION. BKN CEILINGS
POSSIBLE AT KGFL CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BUT
STILL IN VFR CRITERIA. CLOUDS WILL BE AT ALL TAF SITES AT VARYING
COVERAGE PAST 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD
REMAINING AT VFR CONDITIONS.

WINDS WILL BE GUSTING AT OR ABOVE 10 KNOTS OUT OF THE NW AT
KGFL/KALB BEFORE 00Z. WINDS AT ALL TAF SITES WILL BE NEAR CALM FROM
00Z-12Z SUNDAY BEFORE GUSTING BETWEEN 5-10 KNOTS OUT OF THE WNW 12Z
SUNDAY THROUGH END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM 25 TO 35
PERCENT...

A MAINLY DRY DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION WITH A NORTHERLY WIND
BETWEEN 10 AND 18 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS INTO THE 20 MPH
RANGE. PARTIAL CLOUD COVERAGE TONIGHT WITH A RECOVERY OF RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES BETWEEN 70 AND 90 PERCENT.

THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE IN
THE FORECAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES ELEVATED WITH MINIMUM VALUES ON SUNDAY RANGING FROM 35
TO 45 PERCENT...THEN 40 TO 60 PERCENT ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION. ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION
WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR
HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA /HSA/.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/BGM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...LFM
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM




000
FXUS61 KALY 251717
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
117 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LEVEL STORM HAS MOVED JUST FAR ENOUGH AWAY OF
THE GULF OF MAINE TO ALLOW FOR MORE SUNSHINE AND LESS COOL
TEMPERATURES TODAY. IT WILL HOWEVER WOBBLE BACK INTO MAINE ON SUNDAY
WHICH WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AGAIN SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. &&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

AS OF 1015 AM EDT...STILL LOOKING AT
A MAINLY CLEAR SKY EXCEPT FOR OUR ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS
WHERE A FEW MORE INSTABILITY CLOUD HAVE FORMED.

OVERALL FORECAST LOOKS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THINGS...SO WITH
THIS UPDATE JUST SOME VERY MINOR TWEAKS OF THE HOURLY GRIDS. NO
CHANGES TO HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON.

A WEAK ANTICYLONIC FLOW (AS OPPOSED TO A CYCLONIC ONE) SHOULD ALLOW
OUR REGION TO REMAIN RATHER TRANQUIL TODAY. THE ONLY MINOR EXCEPTION
TO THIS WOULD BE SOME INFLUENCE OF LAKE ONTARIO ALONG WITH UPSLOPE
INTO THE DACKS WHERE A SHOWER OR TWO COULD DEVELOP COINCIDING WITH
THE MAX HEATING OF THE DAY. DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU/SC EXPECTED WITH
HIGHS MAINLY INTO THE 50S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND 40S FOR THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE NEXT ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH AXIS JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES REGION BEGINS TO MIGRATE SOUTHWARD TONIGHT. PER THE
NCEP MODEL SUITE...TIMING OF THIS FEATURE WILL DELAY THE ONSET OF
PRECIP AS WE WILL KEEP MOST OF THE REGION DRY TONIGHT. A MIXTURE
OF CLOUDS AND STARS WILL ALLOW FOR DIVERSE TEMPERATURE RANGES FROM
20S INTO THE TERRAIN AND MID 30S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH AXIS SLIDES FURTHER SOUTHWARD
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR BOTH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVERAGE AND PROBABILITIES FOR SHOWERS. THE SHOWERS WILL INITIALLY
BE CONFINED MAINLY INTO THE TERRAIN ON SUNDAY THEN A MORE COVERAGE
IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY. IN FACT...MONDAY WE WILL SEE WARM
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM THE NORTH AS THE UPPER LOW
COMPLETELY WRAPS IN ATLANTIC MOISTURE. DUE TO THE CLOUD COVERAGE
AND THE INCREASE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS...THIS TOO WILL HAVE AN
IMPACT TO THE TEMPERATURES AS WILL SHAVE OFF A DEGREE OR TWO FROM
MOS GUIDANCE. SOME OF THE HIGHEST TERRAIN WILL LIKELY SEE SOME
RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS.

THIS LAST PIECE OF ENERGY QUICKLY MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
AS DEEPENING CYCLOGENSIS COMMENCES WELL EAST OF THE COASTLINE.
THIS TOO WILL QUICKLY END THE PRECIP FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT. SOME PARTIAL CLEARING WILL COMMENCE BUT DUE TO THE
WARMING THERMAL PROFILES...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A LITTLE MILDER
WITH LOWS GENERALLY RANGING FROM 35-45F.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE SLOW MOVING CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY BE MOVING AWAY
FROM THE REGION BY TUESDAY. ASIDE FROM AN EARLY MORNING RAIN SHOWER
IN FAR EASTERN AREAS...DRY WEATHER WITH A PARTLY SUNNY SKY IS
EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY WITH TEMPS REBOUNDING BACK TOWARDS SEASONAL
VALUES...OF LOW TO MID 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS...AND MID TO UPPER 50S
FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN.

WITH WEAK RIDGING AT 500 HPA BUILDING INTO THE REGION...DRY WEATHER
WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS WILL CONTINUE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WED
NIGHT. HIGHS LOOK MAINLY IN THE 60S...AND LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO MID
40S...WITH SKIES PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR.

THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW THE END OF THE WEEK PLAYS
OUT...GENERALLY DUE TO THE UNPREDICTABLE NATURE OF THE MOVEMENT OF
ADDITIONAL CUTOFF LOWS. WHILE SOME MODELS /SUCH AS THE 00Z GFS/
SUGGEST THAT A CUTOFF LOW WILL DIVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM CANADA
FOR THURSDAY/FRI...OTHER MODELS /SUCH AS THE 00Z ECMWF AND 00Z GEM/
EITHER KEEP THESE SYSTEMS ACROSS CANADA OR OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US.
ALSO...WHILE MOST DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE SEEMED TO BACK OFF THIS
IDEA...THERE IS ALSO THE CHANCE THAT THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN US COULD DEVELOP A SFC COASTAL LOW THAT MOVES UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD FOR THE LATE WEEK OR INTO THE WEEKEND...AS SEEN IN
A FEW MEMBERS OF THE 00Z GEFS.

WITH ALL THIS IN MIND...WILL GO WITH SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS FOR
THURSDAY/FRI FOR RAIN SHOWERS FOR NOW...BUT THIS WILL BE SUBJECT TO
CHANGE DEPENDING ON MODEL TRENDS. WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST TEMPS
NEAR NORMAL LEVELS...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE A COOLER IF MORE CLOUDS/RAIN
SHOWERS OCCUR...ESP WITH THE LOWER HEIGHTS OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVERHEAD.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.
AS OUR REGION IS ON THE WEST SIDE OF AN ALMOST STATIONARY UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND SOME GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE THROUGH 00Z
SUNDAY. ONCE WE GO PAST 00Z SUNDAY...MORE FEW TO SCT CLOUD
COVERAGE WILL BEGIN TO WORK BACK INTO THE REGION. BKN CEILINGS
POSSIBLE AT KGFL CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BUT
STILL IN VFR CRITERIA. CLOUDS WILL BE AT ALL TAF SITES AT VARYING
COVERAGE PAST 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD
REMAINING AT VFR CONDITIONS.

WINDS WILL BE GUSTING AT OR ABOVE 10 KNOTS OUT OF THE NW AT
KGFL/KALB BEFORE 00Z. WINDS AT ALL TAF SITES WILL BE NEAR CALM FROM
00Z-12Z SUNDAY BEFORE GUSTING BETWEEN 5-10 KNOTS OUT OF THE WNW 12Z
SUNDAY THROUGH END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM 25 TO 35
PERCENT...

A MAINLY DRY DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION WITH A NORTHERLY WIND
BETWEEN 10 AND 18 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS INTO THE 20 MPH
RANGE. PARTIAL CLOUD COVERAGE TONIGHT WITH A RECOVERY OF RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES BETWEEN 70 AND 90 PERCENT.

THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE IN
THE FORECAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES ELEVATED WITH MINIMUM VALUES ON SUNDAY RANGING FROM 35
TO 45 PERCENT...THEN 40 TO 60 PERCENT ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION. ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION
WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR
HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA /HSA/.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/BGM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...LFM
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM




000
FXUS61 KALY 251417
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1015 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

THE UPPER LEVEL STORM HAS MOVED JUST FAR ENOUGH AWAY OF
THE GULF OF MAINE TO ALLOW FOR MORE SUNSHINE AND LESS COOL
TEMPERATURES TODAY. IT WILL HOWEVER WOBBLE BACK INTO MAINE ON SUNDAY
WHICH WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AGAIN SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. &&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

AS OF 1015 AM EDT...STILL LOOKING AT
A MAINLY CLEAR SKY EXCEPT FOR OUR ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS
WHERE A FEW MORE INSTABILITY CLOUD HAVE FORMED.

OVERALL FORECAST LOOKS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THINGS...SO WITH
THIS UPDATE JUST SOME VERY MINOR TWEAKS OF THE HOURLY GRIDS. NO
CHANGES TO HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON.

A WEAK ANTICYLONIC FLOW (AS OPPOSED TO A CYCLONIC ONE) SHOULD ALLOW
OUR REGION TO REMAIN RATHER TRANQUIL TODAY. THE ONLY MINOR EXCEPTION
TO THIS WOULD BE SOME INFLUENCE OF LAKE ONTARIO ALONG WITH UPSLOPE
INTO THE DACKS WHERE A SHOWER OR TWO COULD DEVELOP COINCIDING WITH
THE MAX HEATING OF THE DAY. DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU/SC EXPECTED WITH
HIGHS MAINLY INTO THE 50S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND 40S FOR THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE NEXT ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH AXIS JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES REGION BEGINS TO MIGRATE SOUTHWARD TONIGHT. PER THE
NCEP MODEL SUITE...TIMING OF THIS FEATURE WILL DELAY THE ONSET OF
PRECIP AS WE WILL KEEP MOST OF THE REGION DRY TONIGHT. A MIXTURE
OF CLOUDS AND STARS WILL ALLOW FOR DIVERSE TEMPERATURE RANGES FROM
20S INTO THE TERRAIN AND MID 30S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH AXIS SLIDES FURTHER SOUTHWARD
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR BOTH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVERAGE AND PROBABILITIES FOR SHOWERS. THE SHOWERS WILL INITIALLY
BE CONFINED MAINLY INTO THE TERRAIN ON SUNDAY THEN A MORE COVERAGE
IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY. IN FACT...MONDAY WE WILL SEE WARM
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM THE NORTH AS THE UPPER LOW
COMPLETELY WRAPS IN ATLANTIC MOISTURE. DUE TO THE CLOUD COVERAGE
AND THE INCREASE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS...THIS TOO WILL HAVE AN
IMPACT TO THE TEMPERATURES AS WILL SHAVE OFF A DEGREE OR TWO FROM
MOS GUIDANCE. SOME OF THE HIGHEST TERRAIN WILL LIKELY SEE SOME
RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS.

THIS LAST PIECE OF ENERGY QUICKLY MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
AS DEEPENING CYCLOGENSIS COMMENCES WELL EAST OF THE COASTLINE.
THIS TOO WILL QUICKLY END THE PRECIP FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT. SOME PARTIAL CLEARING WILL COMMENCE BUT DUE TO THE
WARMING THERMAL PROFILES...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A LITTLE MILDER
WITH LOWS GENERALLY RANGING FROM 35-45F.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE SLOW MOVING CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY BE MOVING AWAY
FROM THE REGION BY TUESDAY. ASIDE FROM AN EARLY MORNING RAIN SHOWER
IN FAR EASTERN AREAS...DRY WEATHER WITH A PARTLY SUNNY SKY IS
EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY WITH TEMPS REBOUNDING BACK TOWARDS SEASONAL
VALUES...OF LOW TO MID 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS...AND MID TO UPPER 50S
FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN.

WITH WEAK RIDGING AT 500 HPA BUILDING INTO THE REGION...DRY WEATHER
WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS WILL CONTINUE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WED
NIGHT. HIGHS LOOK MAINLY IN THE 60S...AND LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO MID
40S...WITH SKIES PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR.

THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW THE END OF THE WEEK PLAYS
OUT...GENERALLY DUE TO THE UNPREDICTABLE NATURE OF THE MOVEMENT OF
ADDITIONAL CUTOFF LOWS. WHILE SOME MODELS /SUCH AS THE 00Z GFS/
SUGGEST THAT A CUTOFF LOW WILL DIVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM CANADA
FOR THURSDAY/FRI...OTHER MODELS /SUCH AS THE 00Z ECMWF AND 00Z GEM/
EITHER KEEP THESE SYSTEMS ACROSS CANADA OR OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US.
ALSO...WHILE MOST DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE SEEMED TO BACK OFF THIS
IDEA...THERE IS ALSO THE CHANCE THAT THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN US COULD DEVELOP A SFC COASTAL LOW THAT MOVES UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD FOR THE LATE WEEK OR INTO THE WEEKEND...AS SEEN IN
A FEW MEMBERS OF THE 00Z GEFS.

WITH ALL THIS IN MIND...WILL GO WITH SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS FOR
THURSDAY/FRI FOR RAIN SHOWERS FOR NOW...BUT THIS WILL BE SUBJECT TO
CHANGE DEPENDING ON MODEL TRENDS. WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST TEMPS
NEAR NORMAL LEVELS...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE A COOLER IF MORE CLOUDS/RAIN
SHOWERS OCCUR...ESP WITH THE LOWER HEIGHTS OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVERHEAD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SITUATED JUST NORTHEAST OF THE REGION OVER
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND/SOUTHEASTERN CANADA WITH A PERSISTENT
CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE AROUND THIS SYSTEM.

ALTHOUGH SKIES ARE CURRENTLY CLEAR OVER MUCH OF THE REGION...THE
COOL TEMPS ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PROMOTE
CLOUDS TO DEVELOP DURING DAYTIME HEATING...ESP FOR THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS. AS A RESULT...SCT-BKN CLOUDS OF 5-6 KFT WILL
FORM...ALTHOUGH NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED...AND FLYING CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN VFR.

DURING DAYTIME MIXING...NW WINDS OF AROUND 10 KTS WILL BE IN
PLACE...WITH SOME GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS AT KALB/KPSF POSSIBLE. WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE EVENING HOURS WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...AND LOOK TO BE AROUND 5 KTS FOR TONIGHT FROM A W-NW
DIRECTION. MOST AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SCT-BKN CIGS AT
4-6 KFT THROUGH THE NIGHT THANKS TO PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW IN
PLACE.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM 25 TO 35
PERCENT...

A MAINLY DRY DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION WITH A NORTHERLY WIND
BETWEEN 10 AND 18 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS INTO THE 20 MPH
RANGE. PARTIAL CLOUD COVERAGE TONIGHT WITH A RECOVERY OF RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES BETWEEN 70 AND 90 PERCENT.

THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE IN
THE FORECAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES ELEVATED WITH MINIMUM VALUES ON SUNDAY RANGING FROM 35
TO 45 PERCENT...THEN 40 TO 60 PERCENT ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION. ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION
WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR
HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA /HSA/.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/BGM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM




000
FXUS61 KALY 251417
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1015 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

THE UPPER LEVEL STORM HAS MOVED JUST FAR ENOUGH AWAY OF
THE GULF OF MAINE TO ALLOW FOR MORE SUNSHINE AND LESS COOL
TEMPERATURES TODAY. IT WILL HOWEVER WOBBLE BACK INTO MAINE ON SUNDAY
WHICH WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AGAIN SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. &&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

AS OF 1015 AM EDT...STILL LOOKING AT
A MAINLY CLEAR SKY EXCEPT FOR OUR ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS
WHERE A FEW MORE INSTABILITY CLOUD HAVE FORMED.

OVERALL FORECAST LOOKS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THINGS...SO WITH
THIS UPDATE JUST SOME VERY MINOR TWEAKS OF THE HOURLY GRIDS. NO
CHANGES TO HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON.

A WEAK ANTICYLONIC FLOW (AS OPPOSED TO A CYCLONIC ONE) SHOULD ALLOW
OUR REGION TO REMAIN RATHER TRANQUIL TODAY. THE ONLY MINOR EXCEPTION
TO THIS WOULD BE SOME INFLUENCE OF LAKE ONTARIO ALONG WITH UPSLOPE
INTO THE DACKS WHERE A SHOWER OR TWO COULD DEVELOP COINCIDING WITH
THE MAX HEATING OF THE DAY. DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU/SC EXPECTED WITH
HIGHS MAINLY INTO THE 50S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND 40S FOR THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE NEXT ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH AXIS JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES REGION BEGINS TO MIGRATE SOUTHWARD TONIGHT. PER THE
NCEP MODEL SUITE...TIMING OF THIS FEATURE WILL DELAY THE ONSET OF
PRECIP AS WE WILL KEEP MOST OF THE REGION DRY TONIGHT. A MIXTURE
OF CLOUDS AND STARS WILL ALLOW FOR DIVERSE TEMPERATURE RANGES FROM
20S INTO THE TERRAIN AND MID 30S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH AXIS SLIDES FURTHER SOUTHWARD
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR BOTH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVERAGE AND PROBABILITIES FOR SHOWERS. THE SHOWERS WILL INITIALLY
BE CONFINED MAINLY INTO THE TERRAIN ON SUNDAY THEN A MORE COVERAGE
IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY. IN FACT...MONDAY WE WILL SEE WARM
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM THE NORTH AS THE UPPER LOW
COMPLETELY WRAPS IN ATLANTIC MOISTURE. DUE TO THE CLOUD COVERAGE
AND THE INCREASE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS...THIS TOO WILL HAVE AN
IMPACT TO THE TEMPERATURES AS WILL SHAVE OFF A DEGREE OR TWO FROM
MOS GUIDANCE. SOME OF THE HIGHEST TERRAIN WILL LIKELY SEE SOME
RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS.

THIS LAST PIECE OF ENERGY QUICKLY MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
AS DEEPENING CYCLOGENSIS COMMENCES WELL EAST OF THE COASTLINE.
THIS TOO WILL QUICKLY END THE PRECIP FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT. SOME PARTIAL CLEARING WILL COMMENCE BUT DUE TO THE
WARMING THERMAL PROFILES...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A LITTLE MILDER
WITH LOWS GENERALLY RANGING FROM 35-45F.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE SLOW MOVING CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY BE MOVING AWAY
FROM THE REGION BY TUESDAY. ASIDE FROM AN EARLY MORNING RAIN SHOWER
IN FAR EASTERN AREAS...DRY WEATHER WITH A PARTLY SUNNY SKY IS
EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY WITH TEMPS REBOUNDING BACK TOWARDS SEASONAL
VALUES...OF LOW TO MID 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS...AND MID TO UPPER 50S
FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN.

WITH WEAK RIDGING AT 500 HPA BUILDING INTO THE REGION...DRY WEATHER
WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS WILL CONTINUE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WED
NIGHT. HIGHS LOOK MAINLY IN THE 60S...AND LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO MID
40S...WITH SKIES PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR.

THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW THE END OF THE WEEK PLAYS
OUT...GENERALLY DUE TO THE UNPREDICTABLE NATURE OF THE MOVEMENT OF
ADDITIONAL CUTOFF LOWS. WHILE SOME MODELS /SUCH AS THE 00Z GFS/
SUGGEST THAT A CUTOFF LOW WILL DIVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM CANADA
FOR THURSDAY/FRI...OTHER MODELS /SUCH AS THE 00Z ECMWF AND 00Z GEM/
EITHER KEEP THESE SYSTEMS ACROSS CANADA OR OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US.
ALSO...WHILE MOST DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE SEEMED TO BACK OFF THIS
IDEA...THERE IS ALSO THE CHANCE THAT THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN US COULD DEVELOP A SFC COASTAL LOW THAT MOVES UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD FOR THE LATE WEEK OR INTO THE WEEKEND...AS SEEN IN
A FEW MEMBERS OF THE 00Z GEFS.

WITH ALL THIS IN MIND...WILL GO WITH SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS FOR
THURSDAY/FRI FOR RAIN SHOWERS FOR NOW...BUT THIS WILL BE SUBJECT TO
CHANGE DEPENDING ON MODEL TRENDS. WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST TEMPS
NEAR NORMAL LEVELS...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE A COOLER IF MORE CLOUDS/RAIN
SHOWERS OCCUR...ESP WITH THE LOWER HEIGHTS OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVERHEAD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SITUATED JUST NORTHEAST OF THE REGION OVER
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND/SOUTHEASTERN CANADA WITH A PERSISTENT
CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE AROUND THIS SYSTEM.

ALTHOUGH SKIES ARE CURRENTLY CLEAR OVER MUCH OF THE REGION...THE
COOL TEMPS ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PROMOTE
CLOUDS TO DEVELOP DURING DAYTIME HEATING...ESP FOR THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS. AS A RESULT...SCT-BKN CLOUDS OF 5-6 KFT WILL
FORM...ALTHOUGH NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED...AND FLYING CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN VFR.

DURING DAYTIME MIXING...NW WINDS OF AROUND 10 KTS WILL BE IN
PLACE...WITH SOME GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS AT KALB/KPSF POSSIBLE. WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE EVENING HOURS WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...AND LOOK TO BE AROUND 5 KTS FOR TONIGHT FROM A W-NW
DIRECTION. MOST AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SCT-BKN CIGS AT
4-6 KFT THROUGH THE NIGHT THANKS TO PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW IN
PLACE.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM 25 TO 35
PERCENT...

A MAINLY DRY DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION WITH A NORTHERLY WIND
BETWEEN 10 AND 18 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS INTO THE 20 MPH
RANGE. PARTIAL CLOUD COVERAGE TONIGHT WITH A RECOVERY OF RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES BETWEEN 70 AND 90 PERCENT.

THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE IN
THE FORECAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES ELEVATED WITH MINIMUM VALUES ON SUNDAY RANGING FROM 35
TO 45 PERCENT...THEN 40 TO 60 PERCENT ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION. ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION
WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR
HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA /HSA/.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/BGM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM




000
FXUS61 KALY 251417
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1015 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

THE UPPER LEVEL STORM HAS MOVED JUST FAR ENOUGH AWAY OF
THE GULF OF MAINE TO ALLOW FOR MORE SUNSHINE AND LESS COOL
TEMPERATURES TODAY. IT WILL HOWEVER WOBBLE BACK INTO MAINE ON SUNDAY
WHICH WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AGAIN SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. &&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

AS OF 1015 AM EDT...STILL LOOKING AT
A MAINLY CLEAR SKY EXCEPT FOR OUR ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS
WHERE A FEW MORE INSTABILITY CLOUD HAVE FORMED.

OVERALL FORECAST LOOKS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THINGS...SO WITH
THIS UPDATE JUST SOME VERY MINOR TWEAKS OF THE HOURLY GRIDS. NO
CHANGES TO HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON.

A WEAK ANTICYLONIC FLOW (AS OPPOSED TO A CYCLONIC ONE) SHOULD ALLOW
OUR REGION TO REMAIN RATHER TRANQUIL TODAY. THE ONLY MINOR EXCEPTION
TO THIS WOULD BE SOME INFLUENCE OF LAKE ONTARIO ALONG WITH UPSLOPE
INTO THE DACKS WHERE A SHOWER OR TWO COULD DEVELOP COINCIDING WITH
THE MAX HEATING OF THE DAY. DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU/SC EXPECTED WITH
HIGHS MAINLY INTO THE 50S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND 40S FOR THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE NEXT ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH AXIS JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES REGION BEGINS TO MIGRATE SOUTHWARD TONIGHT. PER THE
NCEP MODEL SUITE...TIMING OF THIS FEATURE WILL DELAY THE ONSET OF
PRECIP AS WE WILL KEEP MOST OF THE REGION DRY TONIGHT. A MIXTURE
OF CLOUDS AND STARS WILL ALLOW FOR DIVERSE TEMPERATURE RANGES FROM
20S INTO THE TERRAIN AND MID 30S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH AXIS SLIDES FURTHER SOUTHWARD
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR BOTH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVERAGE AND PROBABILITIES FOR SHOWERS. THE SHOWERS WILL INITIALLY
BE CONFINED MAINLY INTO THE TERRAIN ON SUNDAY THEN A MORE COVERAGE
IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY. IN FACT...MONDAY WE WILL SEE WARM
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM THE NORTH AS THE UPPER LOW
COMPLETELY WRAPS IN ATLANTIC MOISTURE. DUE TO THE CLOUD COVERAGE
AND THE INCREASE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS...THIS TOO WILL HAVE AN
IMPACT TO THE TEMPERATURES AS WILL SHAVE OFF A DEGREE OR TWO FROM
MOS GUIDANCE. SOME OF THE HIGHEST TERRAIN WILL LIKELY SEE SOME
RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS.

THIS LAST PIECE OF ENERGY QUICKLY MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
AS DEEPENING CYCLOGENSIS COMMENCES WELL EAST OF THE COASTLINE.
THIS TOO WILL QUICKLY END THE PRECIP FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT. SOME PARTIAL CLEARING WILL COMMENCE BUT DUE TO THE
WARMING THERMAL PROFILES...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A LITTLE MILDER
WITH LOWS GENERALLY RANGING FROM 35-45F.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE SLOW MOVING CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY BE MOVING AWAY
FROM THE REGION BY TUESDAY. ASIDE FROM AN EARLY MORNING RAIN SHOWER
IN FAR EASTERN AREAS...DRY WEATHER WITH A PARTLY SUNNY SKY IS
EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY WITH TEMPS REBOUNDING BACK TOWARDS SEASONAL
VALUES...OF LOW TO MID 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS...AND MID TO UPPER 50S
FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN.

WITH WEAK RIDGING AT 500 HPA BUILDING INTO THE REGION...DRY WEATHER
WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS WILL CONTINUE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WED
NIGHT. HIGHS LOOK MAINLY IN THE 60S...AND LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO MID
40S...WITH SKIES PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR.

THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW THE END OF THE WEEK PLAYS
OUT...GENERALLY DUE TO THE UNPREDICTABLE NATURE OF THE MOVEMENT OF
ADDITIONAL CUTOFF LOWS. WHILE SOME MODELS /SUCH AS THE 00Z GFS/
SUGGEST THAT A CUTOFF LOW WILL DIVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM CANADA
FOR THURSDAY/FRI...OTHER MODELS /SUCH AS THE 00Z ECMWF AND 00Z GEM/
EITHER KEEP THESE SYSTEMS ACROSS CANADA OR OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US.
ALSO...WHILE MOST DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE SEEMED TO BACK OFF THIS
IDEA...THERE IS ALSO THE CHANCE THAT THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN US COULD DEVELOP A SFC COASTAL LOW THAT MOVES UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD FOR THE LATE WEEK OR INTO THE WEEKEND...AS SEEN IN
A FEW MEMBERS OF THE 00Z GEFS.

WITH ALL THIS IN MIND...WILL GO WITH SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS FOR
THURSDAY/FRI FOR RAIN SHOWERS FOR NOW...BUT THIS WILL BE SUBJECT TO
CHANGE DEPENDING ON MODEL TRENDS. WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST TEMPS
NEAR NORMAL LEVELS...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE A COOLER IF MORE CLOUDS/RAIN
SHOWERS OCCUR...ESP WITH THE LOWER HEIGHTS OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVERHEAD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SITUATED JUST NORTHEAST OF THE REGION OVER
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND/SOUTHEASTERN CANADA WITH A PERSISTENT
CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE AROUND THIS SYSTEM.

ALTHOUGH SKIES ARE CURRENTLY CLEAR OVER MUCH OF THE REGION...THE
COOL TEMPS ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PROMOTE
CLOUDS TO DEVELOP DURING DAYTIME HEATING...ESP FOR THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS. AS A RESULT...SCT-BKN CLOUDS OF 5-6 KFT WILL
FORM...ALTHOUGH NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED...AND FLYING CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN VFR.

DURING DAYTIME MIXING...NW WINDS OF AROUND 10 KTS WILL BE IN
PLACE...WITH SOME GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS AT KALB/KPSF POSSIBLE. WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE EVENING HOURS WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...AND LOOK TO BE AROUND 5 KTS FOR TONIGHT FROM A W-NW
DIRECTION. MOST AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SCT-BKN CIGS AT
4-6 KFT THROUGH THE NIGHT THANKS TO PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW IN
PLACE.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM 25 TO 35
PERCENT...

A MAINLY DRY DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION WITH A NORTHERLY WIND
BETWEEN 10 AND 18 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS INTO THE 20 MPH
RANGE. PARTIAL CLOUD COVERAGE TONIGHT WITH A RECOVERY OF RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES BETWEEN 70 AND 90 PERCENT.

THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE IN
THE FORECAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES ELEVATED WITH MINIMUM VALUES ON SUNDAY RANGING FROM 35
TO 45 PERCENT...THEN 40 TO 60 PERCENT ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION. ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION
WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR
HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA /HSA/.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/BGM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM




000
FXUS61 KALY 251417
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1015 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

THE UPPER LEVEL STORM HAS MOVED JUST FAR ENOUGH AWAY OF
THE GULF OF MAINE TO ALLOW FOR MORE SUNSHINE AND LESS COOL
TEMPERATURES TODAY. IT WILL HOWEVER WOBBLE BACK INTO MAINE ON SUNDAY
WHICH WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AGAIN SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. &&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

AS OF 1015 AM EDT...STILL LOOKING AT
A MAINLY CLEAR SKY EXCEPT FOR OUR ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS
WHERE A FEW MORE INSTABILITY CLOUD HAVE FORMED.

OVERALL FORECAST LOOKS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THINGS...SO WITH
THIS UPDATE JUST SOME VERY MINOR TWEAKS OF THE HOURLY GRIDS. NO
CHANGES TO HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON.

A WEAK ANTICYLONIC FLOW (AS OPPOSED TO A CYCLONIC ONE) SHOULD ALLOW
OUR REGION TO REMAIN RATHER TRANQUIL TODAY. THE ONLY MINOR EXCEPTION
TO THIS WOULD BE SOME INFLUENCE OF LAKE ONTARIO ALONG WITH UPSLOPE
INTO THE DACKS WHERE A SHOWER OR TWO COULD DEVELOP COINCIDING WITH
THE MAX HEATING OF THE DAY. DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU/SC EXPECTED WITH
HIGHS MAINLY INTO THE 50S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND 40S FOR THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE NEXT ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH AXIS JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES REGION BEGINS TO MIGRATE SOUTHWARD TONIGHT. PER THE
NCEP MODEL SUITE...TIMING OF THIS FEATURE WILL DELAY THE ONSET OF
PRECIP AS WE WILL KEEP MOST OF THE REGION DRY TONIGHT. A MIXTURE
OF CLOUDS AND STARS WILL ALLOW FOR DIVERSE TEMPERATURE RANGES FROM
20S INTO THE TERRAIN AND MID 30S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH AXIS SLIDES FURTHER SOUTHWARD
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR BOTH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVERAGE AND PROBABILITIES FOR SHOWERS. THE SHOWERS WILL INITIALLY
BE CONFINED MAINLY INTO THE TERRAIN ON SUNDAY THEN A MORE COVERAGE
IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY. IN FACT...MONDAY WE WILL SEE WARM
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM THE NORTH AS THE UPPER LOW
COMPLETELY WRAPS IN ATLANTIC MOISTURE. DUE TO THE CLOUD COVERAGE
AND THE INCREASE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS...THIS TOO WILL HAVE AN
IMPACT TO THE TEMPERATURES AS WILL SHAVE OFF A DEGREE OR TWO FROM
MOS GUIDANCE. SOME OF THE HIGHEST TERRAIN WILL LIKELY SEE SOME
RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS.

THIS LAST PIECE OF ENERGY QUICKLY MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
AS DEEPENING CYCLOGENSIS COMMENCES WELL EAST OF THE COASTLINE.
THIS TOO WILL QUICKLY END THE PRECIP FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT. SOME PARTIAL CLEARING WILL COMMENCE BUT DUE TO THE
WARMING THERMAL PROFILES...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A LITTLE MILDER
WITH LOWS GENERALLY RANGING FROM 35-45F.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE SLOW MOVING CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY BE MOVING AWAY
FROM THE REGION BY TUESDAY. ASIDE FROM AN EARLY MORNING RAIN SHOWER
IN FAR EASTERN AREAS...DRY WEATHER WITH A PARTLY SUNNY SKY IS
EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY WITH TEMPS REBOUNDING BACK TOWARDS SEASONAL
VALUES...OF LOW TO MID 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS...AND MID TO UPPER 50S
FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN.

WITH WEAK RIDGING AT 500 HPA BUILDING INTO THE REGION...DRY WEATHER
WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS WILL CONTINUE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WED
NIGHT. HIGHS LOOK MAINLY IN THE 60S...AND LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO MID
40S...WITH SKIES PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR.

THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW THE END OF THE WEEK PLAYS
OUT...GENERALLY DUE TO THE UNPREDICTABLE NATURE OF THE MOVEMENT OF
ADDITIONAL CUTOFF LOWS. WHILE SOME MODELS /SUCH AS THE 00Z GFS/
SUGGEST THAT A CUTOFF LOW WILL DIVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM CANADA
FOR THURSDAY/FRI...OTHER MODELS /SUCH AS THE 00Z ECMWF AND 00Z GEM/
EITHER KEEP THESE SYSTEMS ACROSS CANADA OR OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US.
ALSO...WHILE MOST DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE SEEMED TO BACK OFF THIS
IDEA...THERE IS ALSO THE CHANCE THAT THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN US COULD DEVELOP A SFC COASTAL LOW THAT MOVES UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD FOR THE LATE WEEK OR INTO THE WEEKEND...AS SEEN IN
A FEW MEMBERS OF THE 00Z GEFS.

WITH ALL THIS IN MIND...WILL GO WITH SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS FOR
THURSDAY/FRI FOR RAIN SHOWERS FOR NOW...BUT THIS WILL BE SUBJECT TO
CHANGE DEPENDING ON MODEL TRENDS. WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST TEMPS
NEAR NORMAL LEVELS...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE A COOLER IF MORE CLOUDS/RAIN
SHOWERS OCCUR...ESP WITH THE LOWER HEIGHTS OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVERHEAD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SITUATED JUST NORTHEAST OF THE REGION OVER
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND/SOUTHEASTERN CANADA WITH A PERSISTENT
CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE AROUND THIS SYSTEM.

ALTHOUGH SKIES ARE CURRENTLY CLEAR OVER MUCH OF THE REGION...THE
COOL TEMPS ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PROMOTE
CLOUDS TO DEVELOP DURING DAYTIME HEATING...ESP FOR THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS. AS A RESULT...SCT-BKN CLOUDS OF 5-6 KFT WILL
FORM...ALTHOUGH NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED...AND FLYING CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN VFR.

DURING DAYTIME MIXING...NW WINDS OF AROUND 10 KTS WILL BE IN
PLACE...WITH SOME GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS AT KALB/KPSF POSSIBLE. WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE EVENING HOURS WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...AND LOOK TO BE AROUND 5 KTS FOR TONIGHT FROM A W-NW
DIRECTION. MOST AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SCT-BKN CIGS AT
4-6 KFT THROUGH THE NIGHT THANKS TO PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW IN
PLACE.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM 25 TO 35
PERCENT...

A MAINLY DRY DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION WITH A NORTHERLY WIND
BETWEEN 10 AND 18 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS INTO THE 20 MPH
RANGE. PARTIAL CLOUD COVERAGE TONIGHT WITH A RECOVERY OF RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES BETWEEN 70 AND 90 PERCENT.

THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE IN
THE FORECAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES ELEVATED WITH MINIMUM VALUES ON SUNDAY RANGING FROM 35
TO 45 PERCENT...THEN 40 TO 60 PERCENT ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION. ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION
WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR
HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA /HSA/.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/BGM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM




000
FXUS61 KALY 251417
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1015 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

THE UPPER LEVEL STORM HAS MOVED JUST FAR ENOUGH AWAY OF
THE GULF OF MAINE TO ALLOW FOR MORE SUNSHINE AND LESS COOL
TEMPERATURES TODAY. IT WILL HOWEVER WOBBLE BACK INTO MAINE ON SUNDAY
WHICH WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AGAIN SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. &&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

AS OF 1015 AM EDT...STILL LOOKING AT
A MAINLY CLEAR SKY EXCEPT FOR OUR ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS
WHERE A FEW MORE INSTABILITY CLOUD HAVE FORMED.

OVERALL FORECAST LOOKS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THINGS...SO WITH
THIS UPDATE JUST SOME VERY MINOR TWEAKS OF THE HOURLY GRIDS. NO
CHANGES TO HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON.

A WEAK ANTICYLONIC FLOW (AS OPPOSED TO A CYCLONIC ONE) SHOULD ALLOW
OUR REGION TO REMAIN RATHER TRANQUIL TODAY. THE ONLY MINOR EXCEPTION
TO THIS WOULD BE SOME INFLUENCE OF LAKE ONTARIO ALONG WITH UPSLOPE
INTO THE DACKS WHERE A SHOWER OR TWO COULD DEVELOP COINCIDING WITH
THE MAX HEATING OF THE DAY. DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU/SC EXPECTED WITH
HIGHS MAINLY INTO THE 50S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND 40S FOR THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE NEXT ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH AXIS JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES REGION BEGINS TO MIGRATE SOUTHWARD TONIGHT. PER THE
NCEP MODEL SUITE...TIMING OF THIS FEATURE WILL DELAY THE ONSET OF
PRECIP AS WE WILL KEEP MOST OF THE REGION DRY TONIGHT. A MIXTURE
OF CLOUDS AND STARS WILL ALLOW FOR DIVERSE TEMPERATURE RANGES FROM
20S INTO THE TERRAIN AND MID 30S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH AXIS SLIDES FURTHER SOUTHWARD
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR BOTH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVERAGE AND PROBABILITIES FOR SHOWERS. THE SHOWERS WILL INITIALLY
BE CONFINED MAINLY INTO THE TERRAIN ON SUNDAY THEN A MORE COVERAGE
IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY. IN FACT...MONDAY WE WILL SEE WARM
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM THE NORTH AS THE UPPER LOW
COMPLETELY WRAPS IN ATLANTIC MOISTURE. DUE TO THE CLOUD COVERAGE
AND THE INCREASE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS...THIS TOO WILL HAVE AN
IMPACT TO THE TEMPERATURES AS WILL SHAVE OFF A DEGREE OR TWO FROM
MOS GUIDANCE. SOME OF THE HIGHEST TERRAIN WILL LIKELY SEE SOME
RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS.

THIS LAST PIECE OF ENERGY QUICKLY MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
AS DEEPENING CYCLOGENSIS COMMENCES WELL EAST OF THE COASTLINE.
THIS TOO WILL QUICKLY END THE PRECIP FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT. SOME PARTIAL CLEARING WILL COMMENCE BUT DUE TO THE
WARMING THERMAL PROFILES...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A LITTLE MILDER
WITH LOWS GENERALLY RANGING FROM 35-45F.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE SLOW MOVING CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY BE MOVING AWAY
FROM THE REGION BY TUESDAY. ASIDE FROM AN EARLY MORNING RAIN SHOWER
IN FAR EASTERN AREAS...DRY WEATHER WITH A PARTLY SUNNY SKY IS
EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY WITH TEMPS REBOUNDING BACK TOWARDS SEASONAL
VALUES...OF LOW TO MID 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS...AND MID TO UPPER 50S
FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN.

WITH WEAK RIDGING AT 500 HPA BUILDING INTO THE REGION...DRY WEATHER
WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS WILL CONTINUE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WED
NIGHT. HIGHS LOOK MAINLY IN THE 60S...AND LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO MID
40S...WITH SKIES PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR.

THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW THE END OF THE WEEK PLAYS
OUT...GENERALLY DUE TO THE UNPREDICTABLE NATURE OF THE MOVEMENT OF
ADDITIONAL CUTOFF LOWS. WHILE SOME MODELS /SUCH AS THE 00Z GFS/
SUGGEST THAT A CUTOFF LOW WILL DIVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM CANADA
FOR THURSDAY/FRI...OTHER MODELS /SUCH AS THE 00Z ECMWF AND 00Z GEM/
EITHER KEEP THESE SYSTEMS ACROSS CANADA OR OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US.
ALSO...WHILE MOST DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE SEEMED TO BACK OFF THIS
IDEA...THERE IS ALSO THE CHANCE THAT THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN US COULD DEVELOP A SFC COASTAL LOW THAT MOVES UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD FOR THE LATE WEEK OR INTO THE WEEKEND...AS SEEN IN
A FEW MEMBERS OF THE 00Z GEFS.

WITH ALL THIS IN MIND...WILL GO WITH SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS FOR
THURSDAY/FRI FOR RAIN SHOWERS FOR NOW...BUT THIS WILL BE SUBJECT TO
CHANGE DEPENDING ON MODEL TRENDS. WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST TEMPS
NEAR NORMAL LEVELS...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE A COOLER IF MORE CLOUDS/RAIN
SHOWERS OCCUR...ESP WITH THE LOWER HEIGHTS OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVERHEAD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SITUATED JUST NORTHEAST OF THE REGION OVER
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND/SOUTHEASTERN CANADA WITH A PERSISTENT
CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE AROUND THIS SYSTEM.

ALTHOUGH SKIES ARE CURRENTLY CLEAR OVER MUCH OF THE REGION...THE
COOL TEMPS ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PROMOTE
CLOUDS TO DEVELOP DURING DAYTIME HEATING...ESP FOR THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS. AS A RESULT...SCT-BKN CLOUDS OF 5-6 KFT WILL
FORM...ALTHOUGH NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED...AND FLYING CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN VFR.

DURING DAYTIME MIXING...NW WINDS OF AROUND 10 KTS WILL BE IN
PLACE...WITH SOME GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS AT KALB/KPSF POSSIBLE. WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE EVENING HOURS WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...AND LOOK TO BE AROUND 5 KTS FOR TONIGHT FROM A W-NW
DIRECTION. MOST AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SCT-BKN CIGS AT
4-6 KFT THROUGH THE NIGHT THANKS TO PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW IN
PLACE.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM 25 TO 35
PERCENT...

A MAINLY DRY DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION WITH A NORTHERLY WIND
BETWEEN 10 AND 18 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS INTO THE 20 MPH
RANGE. PARTIAL CLOUD COVERAGE TONIGHT WITH A RECOVERY OF RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES BETWEEN 70 AND 90 PERCENT.

THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE IN
THE FORECAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES ELEVATED WITH MINIMUM VALUES ON SUNDAY RANGING FROM 35
TO 45 PERCENT...THEN 40 TO 60 PERCENT ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION. ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION
WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR
HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA /HSA/.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/BGM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM



000
FXUS61 KALY 251417
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1015 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

THE UPPER LEVEL STORM HAS MOVED JUST FAR ENOUGH AWAY OF
THE GULF OF MAINE TO ALLOW FOR MORE SUNSHINE AND LESS COOL
TEMPERATURES TODAY. IT WILL HOWEVER WOBBLE BACK INTO MAINE ON SUNDAY
WHICH WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AGAIN SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. &&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

AS OF 1015 AM EDT...STILL LOOKING AT
A MAINLY CLEAR SKY EXCEPT FOR OUR ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS
WHERE A FEW MORE INSTABILITY CLOUD HAVE FORMED.

OVERALL FORECAST LOOKS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THINGS...SO WITH
THIS UPDATE JUST SOME VERY MINOR TWEAKS OF THE HOURLY GRIDS. NO
CHANGES TO HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON.

A WEAK ANTICYLONIC FLOW (AS OPPOSED TO A CYCLONIC ONE) SHOULD ALLOW
OUR REGION TO REMAIN RATHER TRANQUIL TODAY. THE ONLY MINOR EXCEPTION
TO THIS WOULD BE SOME INFLUENCE OF LAKE ONTARIO ALONG WITH UPSLOPE
INTO THE DACKS WHERE A SHOWER OR TWO COULD DEVELOP COINCIDING WITH
THE MAX HEATING OF THE DAY. DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU/SC EXPECTED WITH
HIGHS MAINLY INTO THE 50S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND 40S FOR THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE NEXT ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH AXIS JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES REGION BEGINS TO MIGRATE SOUTHWARD TONIGHT. PER THE
NCEP MODEL SUITE...TIMING OF THIS FEATURE WILL DELAY THE ONSET OF
PRECIP AS WE WILL KEEP MOST OF THE REGION DRY TONIGHT. A MIXTURE
OF CLOUDS AND STARS WILL ALLOW FOR DIVERSE TEMPERATURE RANGES FROM
20S INTO THE TERRAIN AND MID 30S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH AXIS SLIDES FURTHER SOUTHWARD
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR BOTH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVERAGE AND PROBABILITIES FOR SHOWERS. THE SHOWERS WILL INITIALLY
BE CONFINED MAINLY INTO THE TERRAIN ON SUNDAY THEN A MORE COVERAGE
IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY. IN FACT...MONDAY WE WILL SEE WARM
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM THE NORTH AS THE UPPER LOW
COMPLETELY WRAPS IN ATLANTIC MOISTURE. DUE TO THE CLOUD COVERAGE
AND THE INCREASE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS...THIS TOO WILL HAVE AN
IMPACT TO THE TEMPERATURES AS WILL SHAVE OFF A DEGREE OR TWO FROM
MOS GUIDANCE. SOME OF THE HIGHEST TERRAIN WILL LIKELY SEE SOME
RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS.

THIS LAST PIECE OF ENERGY QUICKLY MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
AS DEEPENING CYCLOGENSIS COMMENCES WELL EAST OF THE COASTLINE.
THIS TOO WILL QUICKLY END THE PRECIP FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT. SOME PARTIAL CLEARING WILL COMMENCE BUT DUE TO THE
WARMING THERMAL PROFILES...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A LITTLE MILDER
WITH LOWS GENERALLY RANGING FROM 35-45F.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE SLOW MOVING CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY BE MOVING AWAY
FROM THE REGION BY TUESDAY. ASIDE FROM AN EARLY MORNING RAIN SHOWER
IN FAR EASTERN AREAS...DRY WEATHER WITH A PARTLY SUNNY SKY IS
EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY WITH TEMPS REBOUNDING BACK TOWARDS SEASONAL
VALUES...OF LOW TO MID 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS...AND MID TO UPPER 50S
FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN.

WITH WEAK RIDGING AT 500 HPA BUILDING INTO THE REGION...DRY WEATHER
WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS WILL CONTINUE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WED
NIGHT. HIGHS LOOK MAINLY IN THE 60S...AND LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO MID
40S...WITH SKIES PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR.

THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW THE END OF THE WEEK PLAYS
OUT...GENERALLY DUE TO THE UNPREDICTABLE NATURE OF THE MOVEMENT OF
ADDITIONAL CUTOFF LOWS. WHILE SOME MODELS /SUCH AS THE 00Z GFS/
SUGGEST THAT A CUTOFF LOW WILL DIVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM CANADA
FOR THURSDAY/FRI...OTHER MODELS /SUCH AS THE 00Z ECMWF AND 00Z GEM/
EITHER KEEP THESE SYSTEMS ACROSS CANADA OR OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US.
ALSO...WHILE MOST DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE SEEMED TO BACK OFF THIS
IDEA...THERE IS ALSO THE CHANCE THAT THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN US COULD DEVELOP A SFC COASTAL LOW THAT MOVES UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD FOR THE LATE WEEK OR INTO THE WEEKEND...AS SEEN IN
A FEW MEMBERS OF THE 00Z GEFS.

WITH ALL THIS IN MIND...WILL GO WITH SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS FOR
THURSDAY/FRI FOR RAIN SHOWERS FOR NOW...BUT THIS WILL BE SUBJECT TO
CHANGE DEPENDING ON MODEL TRENDS. WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST TEMPS
NEAR NORMAL LEVELS...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE A COOLER IF MORE CLOUDS/RAIN
SHOWERS OCCUR...ESP WITH THE LOWER HEIGHTS OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVERHEAD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SITUATED JUST NORTHEAST OF THE REGION OVER
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND/SOUTHEASTERN CANADA WITH A PERSISTENT
CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE AROUND THIS SYSTEM.

ALTHOUGH SKIES ARE CURRENTLY CLEAR OVER MUCH OF THE REGION...THE
COOL TEMPS ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PROMOTE
CLOUDS TO DEVELOP DURING DAYTIME HEATING...ESP FOR THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS. AS A RESULT...SCT-BKN CLOUDS OF 5-6 KFT WILL
FORM...ALTHOUGH NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED...AND FLYING CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN VFR.

DURING DAYTIME MIXING...NW WINDS OF AROUND 10 KTS WILL BE IN
PLACE...WITH SOME GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS AT KALB/KPSF POSSIBLE. WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE EVENING HOURS WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...AND LOOK TO BE AROUND 5 KTS FOR TONIGHT FROM A W-NW
DIRECTION. MOST AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SCT-BKN CIGS AT
4-6 KFT THROUGH THE NIGHT THANKS TO PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW IN
PLACE.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM 25 TO 35
PERCENT...

A MAINLY DRY DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION WITH A NORTHERLY WIND
BETWEEN 10 AND 18 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS INTO THE 20 MPH
RANGE. PARTIAL CLOUD COVERAGE TONIGHT WITH A RECOVERY OF RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES BETWEEN 70 AND 90 PERCENT.

THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE IN
THE FORECAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES ELEVATED WITH MINIMUM VALUES ON SUNDAY RANGING FROM 35
TO 45 PERCENT...THEN 40 TO 60 PERCENT ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION. ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION
WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR
HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA /HSA/.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/BGM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM




000
FXUS61 KBOX 251410
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1010 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH
SPOTTY SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES. PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF NEXT
WEEK AS WELL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE...STILL SEEING A FEW RADAR ECHOES DRIFTING THROUGH
ESSEX COUNTY WITH THE SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW.
STILL NOT SURE WHAT...IF ANY...PRECIP IS REACHING THE GROUND SO
HAVE KEPT SPRINKLES IN THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL SHIFTS SLIGHTLY FURTHER AWAY FROM OUR
REGION TODAY....BUT STILL CLOSE ENOUGH TO HAVE SOME INFLUENCE ON
OUR WEATHER. THE MAIN CHANGES WILL BE SLIGHTLY LESS CLOUDS...
PARTICULARLY TOWARD SOUTHWEST NEW ENGLAND. THE SURFACE LAYER WILL
BE DRIER...SO MOST ATTEMPTS AT PRECIPITATION SHOULD EVAPORATE ON
THE WAY DOWN. DECENT MIXING...SO WE SHOULD SEE ANOTHER GUSTY DAY
WITH PEAK GUSTS AROUND 20 KT/25 MPH. MORE SUNSHINE SHOULD MEAN
SLIGHTLY HIGHER MAX TEMPERATURES THAN FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
WEAK RIDGE BUILDS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT...PROVIDING
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE 30S...SO MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE 30S
ONCE MORE.

FOR SUNDAY...THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO
OUR REGION. THUS WE WILL BE IN A MORE FAVORABLE POSITION FOR
DIURNAL CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. SO...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE OVER THE
LAST SEVERAL DAYS...SKIES SHOULD START OFF PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY.
THEN CLOUDS DEVELOP ALONG WITH A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
NEAR AND NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE. EXPECTING MAX TEMPERATURES TO BE
MAINLY IN THE 50S. IF A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE WORKS THROUGH THE
CLOUDS ACROSS THE LOWER CT VALLEY...READINGS MAY TOUCH 60 IN A FEW
SPOTS THERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT WEEK
* SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS MONDAY AND TUESDAY
* HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY
* LOW CONFIDENCE ON COASTAL SYSTEM THURS/FRIDAY

OVERVIEW...

STRETCHED CLOSED LOW OVER THE REGION WILL BRING SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
THROUGH THE FLOW MONDAY AND INTO EARLY TUESDAY. NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE APPEARS TO PUSH CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST
KICKING THIS LOW OUT TO SEA BY WEDNESDAY.

BEYOND THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN AS GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SPLIT. OVERALL APPEARS UNSETTLED WEATHER AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUE AS BLOCKING PATTERN PERSIST...SUPPORTED BY
-NAO/-AO/+PNA. BOTH MODELS AGREE IN BREAKING THE RIDGE DOWN FAIRLY
QUICKLY ON WEDNESDAY. AMONG THE OPERATIONAL MODELS THE PAST COUPLE
ECMWF RUNS AND NEW 00Z UKMET SEEM TO FORM ONE CLUSTER THAT IS QUITE
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE DEPTH/CLOSURE OF ENERGY FROM THE GREAT LAKES
INTO MID ATLC...AND STILL WITH VERY DIFFERENT SFC SOLNS...WHILE SOME
RECENT GFS RUNS AND THE 00Z/24 ECMWF WERE MOST PRONOUNCED IN
BRINGING TRAILING NERN PAC AND/OR CANADIAN ENERGY ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST AS A CONCENTRATED UPR LOW LATE IN THE PERIOD.  THE LATTER
FEATURE WOULD BRING DEEP SFC LOW PRES CLOSE TO NEW ENGLAND OR AT
LEAST THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AS IN THE THE NEW 00Z GFS. REGARDLESS
BOTH CAMPS CONTINUE TO PUT THE EASTERN CONUS IN A DEEP TROUGH AT THE
END OF THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. THEREFORE FELT ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE WAS BEST FOR THE WORK WEEK FORECAST.

DETAILS...

* MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN BRINGING ITS COOL POOL
OVER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. CHANCES OF PRECIP HAS INCREASED...ESP ON
MONDAY AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW FROM THE NORTH.
EXPECT SCT DIURNAL SHOWERS AS COLD POOL ALOFT WILL BE SITTING OVER
THE REGION. PRECIP CHANCES ARE SLIGHTLY LOWER ON TUESDAY AS COLD
POOL AND UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGIN TO MOVE OFFSHORE...ESP LATE IN THE
DAY. TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON
MONDAY AND ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY.

* WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

DIGGING TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL PUSH RIDGE OVER THE
REGION. THIS WILL GIVE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND A BREAK IN PRECIP AND
TEMPS NEAR NORMAL. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER
THANKS TO PERSISTENT NORTHERLY FLOW.

* THURSDAY AND BEYOND...LOW CONFIDENCE.

STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. EVERYTHING
IS DEPENDENT ON HOW THE CUT-OFF LOW IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND
DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM WAVES BEHAVES.  REGARDLESS APPEARS DEEP
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP PUTTING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BACK BELOW NORMAL
FOR TEMPS WITH AN INCREASE IN UNSETTLED WEATHER. STILL WATCHING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL LOW ON THURSDAY/FRIDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND EC
HAVE PUSHED THE LOW OUT TO SEA...OR FOCUSED ON THE MID-ATLANTIC
WHERE THE ENSEMBLES KEEP IT NEAR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. STILL A LOT
OF UNCERTAINTY AND WILL NEED TO WAIT UNTIL MODELS CAN GET A BETTER
SAMPLE ON THE SHORTWAVES WHEN THEY COME OFF THE PACIFIC.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR IN SPOTTY
SHOWERS. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING AROUND 20 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS. SEA BREEZES
LIKELY. POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR IN SPOTTY SHOWERS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF. LOW CONFIDENCE IN LATE
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THOUGH WEDNESDAY...

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
IN SCT SHOWERS. SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST
COAST.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS GUST TO 20 KT...WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KT
OFFSHORE. SEAS LINGER NEAR 5 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS THIS
MORNING...THEN SUBSIDE.

TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA. EXPECT NW WINDS TO SHIFT TO NE SUNDAY...BUT REMAIN
BELOW 15 KT. SEA BREEZES LIKELY SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THOUGHT WEDNESDAY...

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO SPIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. HIT OR MISS SHOWERS POSSIBLE
DURING THE DAY. WIND AND SEAS TO REMAINS BELOW SCA ON SUNDAY. POTENT
COLD POOL WILL FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH CREATING STRONG CAA AN
INCREASE WINDS/SEAS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SCA MAY BE NEEDED.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH KEEPING SEAS AND WINDS BELOW SCA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...BELK/RLG
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 251410
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1010 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH
SPOTTY SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES. PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF NEXT
WEEK AS WELL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE...STILL SEEING A FEW RADAR ECHOES DRIFTING THROUGH
ESSEX COUNTY WITH THE SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW.
STILL NOT SURE WHAT...IF ANY...PRECIP IS REACHING THE GROUND SO
HAVE KEPT SPRINKLES IN THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL SHIFTS SLIGHTLY FURTHER AWAY FROM OUR
REGION TODAY....BUT STILL CLOSE ENOUGH TO HAVE SOME INFLUENCE ON
OUR WEATHER. THE MAIN CHANGES WILL BE SLIGHTLY LESS CLOUDS...
PARTICULARLY TOWARD SOUTHWEST NEW ENGLAND. THE SURFACE LAYER WILL
BE DRIER...SO MOST ATTEMPTS AT PRECIPITATION SHOULD EVAPORATE ON
THE WAY DOWN. DECENT MIXING...SO WE SHOULD SEE ANOTHER GUSTY DAY
WITH PEAK GUSTS AROUND 20 KT/25 MPH. MORE SUNSHINE SHOULD MEAN
SLIGHTLY HIGHER MAX TEMPERATURES THAN FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
WEAK RIDGE BUILDS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT...PROVIDING
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE 30S...SO MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE 30S
ONCE MORE.

FOR SUNDAY...THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO
OUR REGION. THUS WE WILL BE IN A MORE FAVORABLE POSITION FOR
DIURNAL CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. SO...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE OVER THE
LAST SEVERAL DAYS...SKIES SHOULD START OFF PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY.
THEN CLOUDS DEVELOP ALONG WITH A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
NEAR AND NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE. EXPECTING MAX TEMPERATURES TO BE
MAINLY IN THE 50S. IF A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE WORKS THROUGH THE
CLOUDS ACROSS THE LOWER CT VALLEY...READINGS MAY TOUCH 60 IN A FEW
SPOTS THERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT WEEK
* SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS MONDAY AND TUESDAY
* HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY
* LOW CONFIDENCE ON COASTAL SYSTEM THURS/FRIDAY

OVERVIEW...

STRETCHED CLOSED LOW OVER THE REGION WILL BRING SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
THROUGH THE FLOW MONDAY AND INTO EARLY TUESDAY. NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE APPEARS TO PUSH CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST
KICKING THIS LOW OUT TO SEA BY WEDNESDAY.

BEYOND THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN AS GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SPLIT. OVERALL APPEARS UNSETTLED WEATHER AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUE AS BLOCKING PATTERN PERSIST...SUPPORTED BY
-NAO/-AO/+PNA. BOTH MODELS AGREE IN BREAKING THE RIDGE DOWN FAIRLY
QUICKLY ON WEDNESDAY. AMONG THE OPERATIONAL MODELS THE PAST COUPLE
ECMWF RUNS AND NEW 00Z UKMET SEEM TO FORM ONE CLUSTER THAT IS QUITE
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE DEPTH/CLOSURE OF ENERGY FROM THE GREAT LAKES
INTO MID ATLC...AND STILL WITH VERY DIFFERENT SFC SOLNS...WHILE SOME
RECENT GFS RUNS AND THE 00Z/24 ECMWF WERE MOST PRONOUNCED IN
BRINGING TRAILING NERN PAC AND/OR CANADIAN ENERGY ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST AS A CONCENTRATED UPR LOW LATE IN THE PERIOD.  THE LATTER
FEATURE WOULD BRING DEEP SFC LOW PRES CLOSE TO NEW ENGLAND OR AT
LEAST THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AS IN THE THE NEW 00Z GFS. REGARDLESS
BOTH CAMPS CONTINUE TO PUT THE EASTERN CONUS IN A DEEP TROUGH AT THE
END OF THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. THEREFORE FELT ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE WAS BEST FOR THE WORK WEEK FORECAST.

DETAILS...

* MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN BRINGING ITS COOL POOL
OVER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. CHANCES OF PRECIP HAS INCREASED...ESP ON
MONDAY AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW FROM THE NORTH.
EXPECT SCT DIURNAL SHOWERS AS COLD POOL ALOFT WILL BE SITTING OVER
THE REGION. PRECIP CHANCES ARE SLIGHTLY LOWER ON TUESDAY AS COLD
POOL AND UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGIN TO MOVE OFFSHORE...ESP LATE IN THE
DAY. TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON
MONDAY AND ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY.

* WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

DIGGING TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL PUSH RIDGE OVER THE
REGION. THIS WILL GIVE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND A BREAK IN PRECIP AND
TEMPS NEAR NORMAL. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER
THANKS TO PERSISTENT NORTHERLY FLOW.

* THURSDAY AND BEYOND...LOW CONFIDENCE.

STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. EVERYTHING
IS DEPENDENT ON HOW THE CUT-OFF LOW IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND
DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM WAVES BEHAVES.  REGARDLESS APPEARS DEEP
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP PUTTING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BACK BELOW NORMAL
FOR TEMPS WITH AN INCREASE IN UNSETTLED WEATHER. STILL WATCHING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL LOW ON THURSDAY/FRIDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND EC
HAVE PUSHED THE LOW OUT TO SEA...OR FOCUSED ON THE MID-ATLANTIC
WHERE THE ENSEMBLES KEEP IT NEAR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. STILL A LOT
OF UNCERTAINTY AND WILL NEED TO WAIT UNTIL MODELS CAN GET A BETTER
SAMPLE ON THE SHORTWAVES WHEN THEY COME OFF THE PACIFIC.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR IN SPOTTY
SHOWERS. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING AROUND 20 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS. SEA BREEZES
LIKELY. POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR IN SPOTTY SHOWERS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF. LOW CONFIDENCE IN LATE
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THOUGH WEDNESDAY...

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
IN SCT SHOWERS. SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST
COAST.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS GUST TO 20 KT...WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KT
OFFSHORE. SEAS LINGER NEAR 5 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS THIS
MORNING...THEN SUBSIDE.

TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA. EXPECT NW WINDS TO SHIFT TO NE SUNDAY...BUT REMAIN
BELOW 15 KT. SEA BREEZES LIKELY SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THOUGHT WEDNESDAY...

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO SPIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. HIT OR MISS SHOWERS POSSIBLE
DURING THE DAY. WIND AND SEAS TO REMAINS BELOW SCA ON SUNDAY. POTENT
COLD POOL WILL FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH CREATING STRONG CAA AN
INCREASE WINDS/SEAS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SCA MAY BE NEEDED.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH KEEPING SEAS AND WINDS BELOW SCA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...BELK/RLG
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 251410
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1010 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH
SPOTTY SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES. PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF NEXT
WEEK AS WELL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE...STILL SEEING A FEW RADAR ECHOES DRIFTING THROUGH
ESSEX COUNTY WITH THE SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW.
STILL NOT SURE WHAT...IF ANY...PRECIP IS REACHING THE GROUND SO
HAVE KEPT SPRINKLES IN THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL SHIFTS SLIGHTLY FURTHER AWAY FROM OUR
REGION TODAY....BUT STILL CLOSE ENOUGH TO HAVE SOME INFLUENCE ON
OUR WEATHER. THE MAIN CHANGES WILL BE SLIGHTLY LESS CLOUDS...
PARTICULARLY TOWARD SOUTHWEST NEW ENGLAND. THE SURFACE LAYER WILL
BE DRIER...SO MOST ATTEMPTS AT PRECIPITATION SHOULD EVAPORATE ON
THE WAY DOWN. DECENT MIXING...SO WE SHOULD SEE ANOTHER GUSTY DAY
WITH PEAK GUSTS AROUND 20 KT/25 MPH. MORE SUNSHINE SHOULD MEAN
SLIGHTLY HIGHER MAX TEMPERATURES THAN FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
WEAK RIDGE BUILDS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT...PROVIDING
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE 30S...SO MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE 30S
ONCE MORE.

FOR SUNDAY...THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO
OUR REGION. THUS WE WILL BE IN A MORE FAVORABLE POSITION FOR
DIURNAL CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. SO...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE OVER THE
LAST SEVERAL DAYS...SKIES SHOULD START OFF PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY.
THEN CLOUDS DEVELOP ALONG WITH A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
NEAR AND NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE. EXPECTING MAX TEMPERATURES TO BE
MAINLY IN THE 50S. IF A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE WORKS THROUGH THE
CLOUDS ACROSS THE LOWER CT VALLEY...READINGS MAY TOUCH 60 IN A FEW
SPOTS THERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT WEEK
* SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS MONDAY AND TUESDAY
* HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY
* LOW CONFIDENCE ON COASTAL SYSTEM THURS/FRIDAY

OVERVIEW...

STRETCHED CLOSED LOW OVER THE REGION WILL BRING SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
THROUGH THE FLOW MONDAY AND INTO EARLY TUESDAY. NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE APPEARS TO PUSH CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST
KICKING THIS LOW OUT TO SEA BY WEDNESDAY.

BEYOND THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN AS GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SPLIT. OVERALL APPEARS UNSETTLED WEATHER AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUE AS BLOCKING PATTERN PERSIST...SUPPORTED BY
-NAO/-AO/+PNA. BOTH MODELS AGREE IN BREAKING THE RIDGE DOWN FAIRLY
QUICKLY ON WEDNESDAY. AMONG THE OPERATIONAL MODELS THE PAST COUPLE
ECMWF RUNS AND NEW 00Z UKMET SEEM TO FORM ONE CLUSTER THAT IS QUITE
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE DEPTH/CLOSURE OF ENERGY FROM THE GREAT LAKES
INTO MID ATLC...AND STILL WITH VERY DIFFERENT SFC SOLNS...WHILE SOME
RECENT GFS RUNS AND THE 00Z/24 ECMWF WERE MOST PRONOUNCED IN
BRINGING TRAILING NERN PAC AND/OR CANADIAN ENERGY ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST AS A CONCENTRATED UPR LOW LATE IN THE PERIOD.  THE LATTER
FEATURE WOULD BRING DEEP SFC LOW PRES CLOSE TO NEW ENGLAND OR AT
LEAST THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AS IN THE THE NEW 00Z GFS. REGARDLESS
BOTH CAMPS CONTINUE TO PUT THE EASTERN CONUS IN A DEEP TROUGH AT THE
END OF THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. THEREFORE FELT ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE WAS BEST FOR THE WORK WEEK FORECAST.

DETAILS...

* MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN BRINGING ITS COOL POOL
OVER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. CHANCES OF PRECIP HAS INCREASED...ESP ON
MONDAY AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW FROM THE NORTH.
EXPECT SCT DIURNAL SHOWERS AS COLD POOL ALOFT WILL BE SITTING OVER
THE REGION. PRECIP CHANCES ARE SLIGHTLY LOWER ON TUESDAY AS COLD
POOL AND UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGIN TO MOVE OFFSHORE...ESP LATE IN THE
DAY. TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON
MONDAY AND ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY.

* WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

DIGGING TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL PUSH RIDGE OVER THE
REGION. THIS WILL GIVE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND A BREAK IN PRECIP AND
TEMPS NEAR NORMAL. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER
THANKS TO PERSISTENT NORTHERLY FLOW.

* THURSDAY AND BEYOND...LOW CONFIDENCE.

STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. EVERYTHING
IS DEPENDENT ON HOW THE CUT-OFF LOW IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND
DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM WAVES BEHAVES.  REGARDLESS APPEARS DEEP
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP PUTTING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BACK BELOW NORMAL
FOR TEMPS WITH AN INCREASE IN UNSETTLED WEATHER. STILL WATCHING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL LOW ON THURSDAY/FRIDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND EC
HAVE PUSHED THE LOW OUT TO SEA...OR FOCUSED ON THE MID-ATLANTIC
WHERE THE ENSEMBLES KEEP IT NEAR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. STILL A LOT
OF UNCERTAINTY AND WILL NEED TO WAIT UNTIL MODELS CAN GET A BETTER
SAMPLE ON THE SHORTWAVES WHEN THEY COME OFF THE PACIFIC.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR IN SPOTTY
SHOWERS. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING AROUND 20 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS. SEA BREEZES
LIKELY. POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR IN SPOTTY SHOWERS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF. LOW CONFIDENCE IN LATE
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THOUGH WEDNESDAY...

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
IN SCT SHOWERS. SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST
COAST.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS GUST TO 20 KT...WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KT
OFFSHORE. SEAS LINGER NEAR 5 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS THIS
MORNING...THEN SUBSIDE.

TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA. EXPECT NW WINDS TO SHIFT TO NE SUNDAY...BUT REMAIN
BELOW 15 KT. SEA BREEZES LIKELY SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THOUGHT WEDNESDAY...

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO SPIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. HIT OR MISS SHOWERS POSSIBLE
DURING THE DAY. WIND AND SEAS TO REMAINS BELOW SCA ON SUNDAY. POTENT
COLD POOL WILL FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH CREATING STRONG CAA AN
INCREASE WINDS/SEAS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SCA MAY BE NEEDED.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH KEEPING SEAS AND WINDS BELOW SCA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...BELK/RLG
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KOKX 251353
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
953 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER
INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FOR THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...FOLLOWED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPR LOW WILL DRIFT S OF NOVA SCOTIA TODAY. AT THE SAME TIME...LOW
PRES WILL APPROACH THE NC COAST TODAY AND OUT TO SEA ON SUNDAY.

THIS PUTS THE CWA IN A SUBSIDENT REGION TODAY...AND DESPITE THE
COLD POOL ALOFT...SHOULD SUPPRESS PCPN CHCS. SW PORTIONS OF THE
TRI-STATE WILL BE CLIPPED BY THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A CIRRUS
SHIELD...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TO THE NE. HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S...SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE.

SUBSIDENCE BEGINS TO WEAKEN TNGT...BUT INSTABILITY IS ALSO
REDUCED WITH THE LOSS OF SFC HEATING. POTENTIAL FOR FROST ACROSS
INTERIOR AND EASTERN LI PORTIONS OF THE TRI-STATE LATE TONIGHT
WITH WINDOW FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING.

INSTABILITY INCREASES DURING THE DAY ON SUN...WITH CONVECTIVE
TEMPS IN THE UPR 50S TO NEAR 60. SOME WEAK MID LVL LIFT SHOULD
HELP PROVIDE A TRIGGER. KEPT POPS LOW...BUT WENT WITH COVERAGE
WORDING. TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD CLOSE TO GMOS25.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
COOLING BL SUN NGT SO PCPN CHCS DIMINISH. STRONGER UPR SUPPORT ON
MON...SO PCPN COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE GREATER THAN SUN. CHANGED
WORDING TO SCT...WITH POPS AROUND 40 REASONABLE ATTM. CHCS AGAIN
WANE A BIT OVERNIGHT...BUT THERE IS A BETTER CHC AT SHWRS HANGING
IN PAST DARK WITH THE SHRTWV ENERGY MOVING THRU. ANOTHER CHC FOR
SOME ISOLD SHWRS TUE AFTN...ESPECIALLY CT AND PERHAPS LI...WITH
THE H5 LOW OVER 400 MILES E OF MONTAUK. DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST
AND THE UPR FORCING IS WEAK TO NON BY TUE NGT...SO A DRY FCST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A BROAD AREA OF HI PRES BUILDS OVER THE NERN CONUS ON WED. DRY WX
EXPECTED AS A RESULT. INCREASING HEIGHTS WILL ALLOW FOR A
NOTICEABLE WARMING TREND...WITH TEMPS APPROACHING 70 ALONG AND W
OF THE HUDSON. WITH WEAK FLOW...SEA BREEZES WILL LIKELY LIMIT
TEMPS ON LI AND CT. THE GFS BRINGS AN UPR LOW THRU IN THE THU-FRI
PERIOD. THE ECMWF BRINGS THIS UPR LEVEL SYS TO THE NC COAST AND
SPAWNS A 980S LOW OVER THE ATLC. THIS LOW IS PROGGED TO GENERALLY
TRACK TO THE ENE AND THEREFORE NOT IMPACT THE CWA. MADE NO CHANGES
TO POPS FOR THE PERIOD...KEEPING THE LOW CHCS ALREADY IN THE
GRIDS. TEMPS CLOSE TO GMOS25 FOR THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A LOW WEAKENS IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AS ANOTHER WEAK LOW PASSES
SOUTH OF THE REGION. VFR CONTINUES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS
INITIALLY NW WILL VARY MORE IN DIRECTION IN THE AFTERNOON AS THEY
BECOME LIGHTER.

THE FLOW BACKS AROUND TO THE W/SW IN THE AFT DUE TO A TROF
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA. LOCAL SEABREEZES MAY DEVELOP IF THE
FLOW WEAKENS ENOUGH WITH PERHAPS MORE OF A NNW FLOW FOR TERMINALS
NW OF KLGA. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS TO OCCUR WILL BE AT KJFK AND
KBDR. WINDS THEN VEER AROUND TO THE N LATE SAT NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE NW.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH WITH THE CATEGORY FORECAST. CONFIDENCE IS
MODERATE WITH THE WIND FORECAST. SEA BREEZE TIMING COULD VARY 1-2
HOURS COMPARED TO FORECAST. WIND DIRECTION UNCERTAINTY OF 20-40
DEGREES WITH AFTERNOON WIND FORECAST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WED...
.SUN...MAINLY VFR.
.MON-TUE...POSSIBLE MVFR WITH SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT-WED...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A
LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY
WORKS SLOWLY EAST. THERE COULD BE A SHORT PERIOD TUE MORNING FOR
MARGI9NAL SCA GUSTS AS A NLY FLOW STRENGTHENS BETWEEN A BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MIN RH WILL FALL INTO THE 20S THIS AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS ARE FCST
TO BE IN THE 15-20 MPH RANGE...WHICH IS BLW RED FLAG CRITERIA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC
NEAR TERM...JMC/NV
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...DW/JM
MARINE...DW
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JMC




000
FXUS61 KOKX 251353
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
953 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER
INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FOR THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...FOLLOWED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPR LOW WILL DRIFT S OF NOVA SCOTIA TODAY. AT THE SAME TIME...LOW
PRES WILL APPROACH THE NC COAST TODAY AND OUT TO SEA ON SUNDAY.

THIS PUTS THE CWA IN A SUBSIDENT REGION TODAY...AND DESPITE THE
COLD POOL ALOFT...SHOULD SUPPRESS PCPN CHCS. SW PORTIONS OF THE
TRI-STATE WILL BE CLIPPED BY THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A CIRRUS
SHIELD...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TO THE NE. HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S...SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE.

SUBSIDENCE BEGINS TO WEAKEN TNGT...BUT INSTABILITY IS ALSO
REDUCED WITH THE LOSS OF SFC HEATING. POTENTIAL FOR FROST ACROSS
INTERIOR AND EASTERN LI PORTIONS OF THE TRI-STATE LATE TONIGHT
WITH WINDOW FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING.

INSTABILITY INCREASES DURING THE DAY ON SUN...WITH CONVECTIVE
TEMPS IN THE UPR 50S TO NEAR 60. SOME WEAK MID LVL LIFT SHOULD
HELP PROVIDE A TRIGGER. KEPT POPS LOW...BUT WENT WITH COVERAGE
WORDING. TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD CLOSE TO GMOS25.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
COOLING BL SUN NGT SO PCPN CHCS DIMINISH. STRONGER UPR SUPPORT ON
MON...SO PCPN COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE GREATER THAN SUN. CHANGED
WORDING TO SCT...WITH POPS AROUND 40 REASONABLE ATTM. CHCS AGAIN
WANE A BIT OVERNIGHT...BUT THERE IS A BETTER CHC AT SHWRS HANGING
IN PAST DARK WITH THE SHRTWV ENERGY MOVING THRU. ANOTHER CHC FOR
SOME ISOLD SHWRS TUE AFTN...ESPECIALLY CT AND PERHAPS LI...WITH
THE H5 LOW OVER 400 MILES E OF MONTAUK. DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST
AND THE UPR FORCING IS WEAK TO NON BY TUE NGT...SO A DRY FCST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A BROAD AREA OF HI PRES BUILDS OVER THE NERN CONUS ON WED. DRY WX
EXPECTED AS A RESULT. INCREASING HEIGHTS WILL ALLOW FOR A
NOTICEABLE WARMING TREND...WITH TEMPS APPROACHING 70 ALONG AND W
OF THE HUDSON. WITH WEAK FLOW...SEA BREEZES WILL LIKELY LIMIT
TEMPS ON LI AND CT. THE GFS BRINGS AN UPR LOW THRU IN THE THU-FRI
PERIOD. THE ECMWF BRINGS THIS UPR LEVEL SYS TO THE NC COAST AND
SPAWNS A 980S LOW OVER THE ATLC. THIS LOW IS PROGGED TO GENERALLY
TRACK TO THE ENE AND THEREFORE NOT IMPACT THE CWA. MADE NO CHANGES
TO POPS FOR THE PERIOD...KEEPING THE LOW CHCS ALREADY IN THE
GRIDS. TEMPS CLOSE TO GMOS25 FOR THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A LOW WEAKENS IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AS ANOTHER WEAK LOW PASSES
SOUTH OF THE REGION. VFR CONTINUES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS
INITIALLY NW WILL VARY MORE IN DIRECTION IN THE AFTERNOON AS THEY
BECOME LIGHTER.

THE FLOW BACKS AROUND TO THE W/SW IN THE AFT DUE TO A TROF
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA. LOCAL SEABREEZES MAY DEVELOP IF THE
FLOW WEAKENS ENOUGH WITH PERHAPS MORE OF A NNW FLOW FOR TERMINALS
NW OF KLGA. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS TO OCCUR WILL BE AT KJFK AND
KBDR. WINDS THEN VEER AROUND TO THE N LATE SAT NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE NW.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH WITH THE CATEGORY FORECAST. CONFIDENCE IS
MODERATE WITH THE WIND FORECAST. SEA BREEZE TIMING COULD VARY 1-2
HOURS COMPARED TO FORECAST. WIND DIRECTION UNCERTAINTY OF 20-40
DEGREES WITH AFTERNOON WIND FORECAST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WED...
.SUN...MAINLY VFR.
.MON-TUE...POSSIBLE MVFR WITH SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT-WED...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A
LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY
WORKS SLOWLY EAST. THERE COULD BE A SHORT PERIOD TUE MORNING FOR
MARGI9NAL SCA GUSTS AS A NLY FLOW STRENGTHENS BETWEEN A BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MIN RH WILL FALL INTO THE 20S THIS AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS ARE FCST
TO BE IN THE 15-20 MPH RANGE...WHICH IS BLW RED FLAG CRITERIA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC
NEAR TERM...JMC/NV
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...DW/JM
MARINE...DW
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JMC



000
FXUS61 KOKX 251353
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
953 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER
INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FOR THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...FOLLOWED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPR LOW WILL DRIFT S OF NOVA SCOTIA TODAY. AT THE SAME TIME...LOW
PRES WILL APPROACH THE NC COAST TODAY AND OUT TO SEA ON SUNDAY.

THIS PUTS THE CWA IN A SUBSIDENT REGION TODAY...AND DESPITE THE
COLD POOL ALOFT...SHOULD SUPPRESS PCPN CHCS. SW PORTIONS OF THE
TRI-STATE WILL BE CLIPPED BY THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A CIRRUS
SHIELD...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TO THE NE. HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S...SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE.

SUBSIDENCE BEGINS TO WEAKEN TNGT...BUT INSTABILITY IS ALSO
REDUCED WITH THE LOSS OF SFC HEATING. POTENTIAL FOR FROST ACROSS
INTERIOR AND EASTERN LI PORTIONS OF THE TRI-STATE LATE TONIGHT
WITH WINDOW FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING.

INSTABILITY INCREASES DURING THE DAY ON SUN...WITH CONVECTIVE
TEMPS IN THE UPR 50S TO NEAR 60. SOME WEAK MID LVL LIFT SHOULD
HELP PROVIDE A TRIGGER. KEPT POPS LOW...BUT WENT WITH COVERAGE
WORDING. TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD CLOSE TO GMOS25.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
COOLING BL SUN NGT SO PCPN CHCS DIMINISH. STRONGER UPR SUPPORT ON
MON...SO PCPN COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE GREATER THAN SUN. CHANGED
WORDING TO SCT...WITH POPS AROUND 40 REASONABLE ATTM. CHCS AGAIN
WANE A BIT OVERNIGHT...BUT THERE IS A BETTER CHC AT SHWRS HANGING
IN PAST DARK WITH THE SHRTWV ENERGY MOVING THRU. ANOTHER CHC FOR
SOME ISOLD SHWRS TUE AFTN...ESPECIALLY CT AND PERHAPS LI...WITH
THE H5 LOW OVER 400 MILES E OF MONTAUK. DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST
AND THE UPR FORCING IS WEAK TO NON BY TUE NGT...SO A DRY FCST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A BROAD AREA OF HI PRES BUILDS OVER THE NERN CONUS ON WED. DRY WX
EXPECTED AS A RESULT. INCREASING HEIGHTS WILL ALLOW FOR A
NOTICEABLE WARMING TREND...WITH TEMPS APPROACHING 70 ALONG AND W
OF THE HUDSON. WITH WEAK FLOW...SEA BREEZES WILL LIKELY LIMIT
TEMPS ON LI AND CT. THE GFS BRINGS AN UPR LOW THRU IN THE THU-FRI
PERIOD. THE ECMWF BRINGS THIS UPR LEVEL SYS TO THE NC COAST AND
SPAWNS A 980S LOW OVER THE ATLC. THIS LOW IS PROGGED TO GENERALLY
TRACK TO THE ENE AND THEREFORE NOT IMPACT THE CWA. MADE NO CHANGES
TO POPS FOR THE PERIOD...KEEPING THE LOW CHCS ALREADY IN THE
GRIDS. TEMPS CLOSE TO GMOS25 FOR THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A LOW WEAKENS IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AS ANOTHER WEAK LOW PASSES
SOUTH OF THE REGION. VFR CONTINUES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS
INITIALLY NW WILL VARY MORE IN DIRECTION IN THE AFTERNOON AS THEY
BECOME LIGHTER.

THE FLOW BACKS AROUND TO THE W/SW IN THE AFT DUE TO A TROF
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA. LOCAL SEABREEZES MAY DEVELOP IF THE
FLOW WEAKENS ENOUGH WITH PERHAPS MORE OF A NNW FLOW FOR TERMINALS
NW OF KLGA. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS TO OCCUR WILL BE AT KJFK AND
KBDR. WINDS THEN VEER AROUND TO THE N LATE SAT NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE NW.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH WITH THE CATEGORY FORECAST. CONFIDENCE IS
MODERATE WITH THE WIND FORECAST. SEA BREEZE TIMING COULD VARY 1-2
HOURS COMPARED TO FORECAST. WIND DIRECTION UNCERTAINTY OF 20-40
DEGREES WITH AFTERNOON WIND FORECAST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WED...
.SUN...MAINLY VFR.
.MON-TUE...POSSIBLE MVFR WITH SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT-WED...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A
LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY
WORKS SLOWLY EAST. THERE COULD BE A SHORT PERIOD TUE MORNING FOR
MARGI9NAL SCA GUSTS AS A NLY FLOW STRENGTHENS BETWEEN A BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MIN RH WILL FALL INTO THE 20S THIS AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS ARE FCST
TO BE IN THE 15-20 MPH RANGE...WHICH IS BLW RED FLAG CRITERIA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC
NEAR TERM...JMC/NV
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...DW/JM
MARINE...DW
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JMC



000
FXUS61 KOKX 251353
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
953 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER
INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FOR THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...FOLLOWED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPR LOW WILL DRIFT S OF NOVA SCOTIA TODAY. AT THE SAME TIME...LOW
PRES WILL APPROACH THE NC COAST TODAY AND OUT TO SEA ON SUNDAY.

THIS PUTS THE CWA IN A SUBSIDENT REGION TODAY...AND DESPITE THE
COLD POOL ALOFT...SHOULD SUPPRESS PCPN CHCS. SW PORTIONS OF THE
TRI-STATE WILL BE CLIPPED BY THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A CIRRUS
SHIELD...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TO THE NE. HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S...SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE.

SUBSIDENCE BEGINS TO WEAKEN TNGT...BUT INSTABILITY IS ALSO
REDUCED WITH THE LOSS OF SFC HEATING. POTENTIAL FOR FROST ACROSS
INTERIOR AND EASTERN LI PORTIONS OF THE TRI-STATE LATE TONIGHT
WITH WINDOW FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING.

INSTABILITY INCREASES DURING THE DAY ON SUN...WITH CONVECTIVE
TEMPS IN THE UPR 50S TO NEAR 60. SOME WEAK MID LVL LIFT SHOULD
HELP PROVIDE A TRIGGER. KEPT POPS LOW...BUT WENT WITH COVERAGE
WORDING. TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD CLOSE TO GMOS25.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
COOLING BL SUN NGT SO PCPN CHCS DIMINISH. STRONGER UPR SUPPORT ON
MON...SO PCPN COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE GREATER THAN SUN. CHANGED
WORDING TO SCT...WITH POPS AROUND 40 REASONABLE ATTM. CHCS AGAIN
WANE A BIT OVERNIGHT...BUT THERE IS A BETTER CHC AT SHWRS HANGING
IN PAST DARK WITH THE SHRTWV ENERGY MOVING THRU. ANOTHER CHC FOR
SOME ISOLD SHWRS TUE AFTN...ESPECIALLY CT AND PERHAPS LI...WITH
THE H5 LOW OVER 400 MILES E OF MONTAUK. DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST
AND THE UPR FORCING IS WEAK TO NON BY TUE NGT...SO A DRY FCST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A BROAD AREA OF HI PRES BUILDS OVER THE NERN CONUS ON WED. DRY WX
EXPECTED AS A RESULT. INCREASING HEIGHTS WILL ALLOW FOR A
NOTICEABLE WARMING TREND...WITH TEMPS APPROACHING 70 ALONG AND W
OF THE HUDSON. WITH WEAK FLOW...SEA BREEZES WILL LIKELY LIMIT
TEMPS ON LI AND CT. THE GFS BRINGS AN UPR LOW THRU IN THE THU-FRI
PERIOD. THE ECMWF BRINGS THIS UPR LEVEL SYS TO THE NC COAST AND
SPAWNS A 980S LOW OVER THE ATLC. THIS LOW IS PROGGED TO GENERALLY
TRACK TO THE ENE AND THEREFORE NOT IMPACT THE CWA. MADE NO CHANGES
TO POPS FOR THE PERIOD...KEEPING THE LOW CHCS ALREADY IN THE
GRIDS. TEMPS CLOSE TO GMOS25 FOR THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A LOW WEAKENS IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AS ANOTHER WEAK LOW PASSES
SOUTH OF THE REGION. VFR CONTINUES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS
INITIALLY NW WILL VARY MORE IN DIRECTION IN THE AFTERNOON AS THEY
BECOME LIGHTER.

THE FLOW BACKS AROUND TO THE W/SW IN THE AFT DUE TO A TROF
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA. LOCAL SEABREEZES MAY DEVELOP IF THE
FLOW WEAKENS ENOUGH WITH PERHAPS MORE OF A NNW FLOW FOR TERMINALS
NW OF KLGA. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS TO OCCUR WILL BE AT KJFK AND
KBDR. WINDS THEN VEER AROUND TO THE N LATE SAT NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE NW.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH WITH THE CATEGORY FORECAST. CONFIDENCE IS
MODERATE WITH THE WIND FORECAST. SEA BREEZE TIMING COULD VARY 1-2
HOURS COMPARED TO FORECAST. WIND DIRECTION UNCERTAINTY OF 20-40
DEGREES WITH AFTERNOON WIND FORECAST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WED...
.SUN...MAINLY VFR.
.MON-TUE...POSSIBLE MVFR WITH SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT-WED...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A
LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY
WORKS SLOWLY EAST. THERE COULD BE A SHORT PERIOD TUE MORNING FOR
MARGI9NAL SCA GUSTS AS A NLY FLOW STRENGTHENS BETWEEN A BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MIN RH WILL FALL INTO THE 20S THIS AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS ARE FCST
TO BE IN THE 15-20 MPH RANGE...WHICH IS BLW RED FLAG CRITERIA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC
NEAR TERM...JMC/NV
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...DW/JM
MARINE...DW
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JMC



000
FXUS61 KOKX 251353
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
953 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER
INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FOR THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...FOLLOWED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPR LOW WILL DRIFT S OF NOVA SCOTIA TODAY. AT THE SAME TIME...LOW
PRES WILL APPROACH THE NC COAST TODAY AND OUT TO SEA ON SUNDAY.

THIS PUTS THE CWA IN A SUBSIDENT REGION TODAY...AND DESPITE THE
COLD POOL ALOFT...SHOULD SUPPRESS PCPN CHCS. SW PORTIONS OF THE
TRI-STATE WILL BE CLIPPED BY THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A CIRRUS
SHIELD...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TO THE NE. HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S...SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE.

SUBSIDENCE BEGINS TO WEAKEN TNGT...BUT INSTABILITY IS ALSO
REDUCED WITH THE LOSS OF SFC HEATING. POTENTIAL FOR FROST ACROSS
INTERIOR AND EASTERN LI PORTIONS OF THE TRI-STATE LATE TONIGHT
WITH WINDOW FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING.

INSTABILITY INCREASES DURING THE DAY ON SUN...WITH CONVECTIVE
TEMPS IN THE UPR 50S TO NEAR 60. SOME WEAK MID LVL LIFT SHOULD
HELP PROVIDE A TRIGGER. KEPT POPS LOW...BUT WENT WITH COVERAGE
WORDING. TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD CLOSE TO GMOS25.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
COOLING BL SUN NGT SO PCPN CHCS DIMINISH. STRONGER UPR SUPPORT ON
MON...SO PCPN COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE GREATER THAN SUN. CHANGED
WORDING TO SCT...WITH POPS AROUND 40 REASONABLE ATTM. CHCS AGAIN
WANE A BIT OVERNIGHT...BUT THERE IS A BETTER CHC AT SHWRS HANGING
IN PAST DARK WITH THE SHRTWV ENERGY MOVING THRU. ANOTHER CHC FOR
SOME ISOLD SHWRS TUE AFTN...ESPECIALLY CT AND PERHAPS LI...WITH
THE H5 LOW OVER 400 MILES E OF MONTAUK. DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST
AND THE UPR FORCING IS WEAK TO NON BY TUE NGT...SO A DRY FCST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A BROAD AREA OF HI PRES BUILDS OVER THE NERN CONUS ON WED. DRY WX
EXPECTED AS A RESULT. INCREASING HEIGHTS WILL ALLOW FOR A
NOTICEABLE WARMING TREND...WITH TEMPS APPROACHING 70 ALONG AND W
OF THE HUDSON. WITH WEAK FLOW...SEA BREEZES WILL LIKELY LIMIT
TEMPS ON LI AND CT. THE GFS BRINGS AN UPR LOW THRU IN THE THU-FRI
PERIOD. THE ECMWF BRINGS THIS UPR LEVEL SYS TO THE NC COAST AND
SPAWNS A 980S LOW OVER THE ATLC. THIS LOW IS PROGGED TO GENERALLY
TRACK TO THE ENE AND THEREFORE NOT IMPACT THE CWA. MADE NO CHANGES
TO POPS FOR THE PERIOD...KEEPING THE LOW CHCS ALREADY IN THE
GRIDS. TEMPS CLOSE TO GMOS25 FOR THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A LOW WEAKENS IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AS ANOTHER WEAK LOW PASSES
SOUTH OF THE REGION. VFR CONTINUES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS
INITIALLY NW WILL VARY MORE IN DIRECTION IN THE AFTERNOON AS THEY
BECOME LIGHTER.

THE FLOW BACKS AROUND TO THE W/SW IN THE AFT DUE TO A TROF
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA. LOCAL SEABREEZES MAY DEVELOP IF THE
FLOW WEAKENS ENOUGH WITH PERHAPS MORE OF A NNW FLOW FOR TERMINALS
NW OF KLGA. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS TO OCCUR WILL BE AT KJFK AND
KBDR. WINDS THEN VEER AROUND TO THE N LATE SAT NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE NW.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH WITH THE CATEGORY FORECAST. CONFIDENCE IS
MODERATE WITH THE WIND FORECAST. SEA BREEZE TIMING COULD VARY 1-2
HOURS COMPARED TO FORECAST. WIND DIRECTION UNCERTAINTY OF 20-40
DEGREES WITH AFTERNOON WIND FORECAST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WED...
.SUN...MAINLY VFR.
.MON-TUE...POSSIBLE MVFR WITH SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT-WED...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A
LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY
WORKS SLOWLY EAST. THERE COULD BE A SHORT PERIOD TUE MORNING FOR
MARGI9NAL SCA GUSTS AS A NLY FLOW STRENGTHENS BETWEEN A BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MIN RH WILL FALL INTO THE 20S THIS AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS ARE FCST
TO BE IN THE 15-20 MPH RANGE...WHICH IS BLW RED FLAG CRITERIA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC
NEAR TERM...JMC/NV
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...DW/JM
MARINE...DW
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JMC



000
FXUS61 KOKX 251353
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
953 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER
INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FOR THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...FOLLOWED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPR LOW WILL DRIFT S OF NOVA SCOTIA TODAY. AT THE SAME TIME...LOW
PRES WILL APPROACH THE NC COAST TODAY AND OUT TO SEA ON SUNDAY.

THIS PUTS THE CWA IN A SUBSIDENT REGION TODAY...AND DESPITE THE
COLD POOL ALOFT...SHOULD SUPPRESS PCPN CHCS. SW PORTIONS OF THE
TRI-STATE WILL BE CLIPPED BY THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A CIRRUS
SHIELD...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TO THE NE. HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S...SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE.

SUBSIDENCE BEGINS TO WEAKEN TNGT...BUT INSTABILITY IS ALSO
REDUCED WITH THE LOSS OF SFC HEATING. POTENTIAL FOR FROST ACROSS
INTERIOR AND EASTERN LI PORTIONS OF THE TRI-STATE LATE TONIGHT
WITH WINDOW FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING.

INSTABILITY INCREASES DURING THE DAY ON SUN...WITH CONVECTIVE
TEMPS IN THE UPR 50S TO NEAR 60. SOME WEAK MID LVL LIFT SHOULD
HELP PROVIDE A TRIGGER. KEPT POPS LOW...BUT WENT WITH COVERAGE
WORDING. TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD CLOSE TO GMOS25.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
COOLING BL SUN NGT SO PCPN CHCS DIMINISH. STRONGER UPR SUPPORT ON
MON...SO PCPN COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE GREATER THAN SUN. CHANGED
WORDING TO SCT...WITH POPS AROUND 40 REASONABLE ATTM. CHCS AGAIN
WANE A BIT OVERNIGHT...BUT THERE IS A BETTER CHC AT SHWRS HANGING
IN PAST DARK WITH THE SHRTWV ENERGY MOVING THRU. ANOTHER CHC FOR
SOME ISOLD SHWRS TUE AFTN...ESPECIALLY CT AND PERHAPS LI...WITH
THE H5 LOW OVER 400 MILES E OF MONTAUK. DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST
AND THE UPR FORCING IS WEAK TO NON BY TUE NGT...SO A DRY FCST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A BROAD AREA OF HI PRES BUILDS OVER THE NERN CONUS ON WED. DRY WX
EXPECTED AS A RESULT. INCREASING HEIGHTS WILL ALLOW FOR A
NOTICEABLE WARMING TREND...WITH TEMPS APPROACHING 70 ALONG AND W
OF THE HUDSON. WITH WEAK FLOW...SEA BREEZES WILL LIKELY LIMIT
TEMPS ON LI AND CT. THE GFS BRINGS AN UPR LOW THRU IN THE THU-FRI
PERIOD. THE ECMWF BRINGS THIS UPR LEVEL SYS TO THE NC COAST AND
SPAWNS A 980S LOW OVER THE ATLC. THIS LOW IS PROGGED TO GENERALLY
TRACK TO THE ENE AND THEREFORE NOT IMPACT THE CWA. MADE NO CHANGES
TO POPS FOR THE PERIOD...KEEPING THE LOW CHCS ALREADY IN THE
GRIDS. TEMPS CLOSE TO GMOS25 FOR THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A LOW WEAKENS IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AS ANOTHER WEAK LOW PASSES
SOUTH OF THE REGION. VFR CONTINUES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS
INITIALLY NW WILL VARY MORE IN DIRECTION IN THE AFTERNOON AS THEY
BECOME LIGHTER.

THE FLOW BACKS AROUND TO THE W/SW IN THE AFT DUE TO A TROF
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA. LOCAL SEABREEZES MAY DEVELOP IF THE
FLOW WEAKENS ENOUGH WITH PERHAPS MORE OF A NNW FLOW FOR TERMINALS
NW OF KLGA. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS TO OCCUR WILL BE AT KJFK AND
KBDR. WINDS THEN VEER AROUND TO THE N LATE SAT NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE NW.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH WITH THE CATEGORY FORECAST. CONFIDENCE IS
MODERATE WITH THE WIND FORECAST. SEA BREEZE TIMING COULD VARY 1-2
HOURS COMPARED TO FORECAST. WIND DIRECTION UNCERTAINTY OF 20-40
DEGREES WITH AFTERNOON WIND FORECAST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WED...
.SUN...MAINLY VFR.
.MON-TUE...POSSIBLE MVFR WITH SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT-WED...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A
LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY
WORKS SLOWLY EAST. THERE COULD BE A SHORT PERIOD TUE MORNING FOR
MARGI9NAL SCA GUSTS AS A NLY FLOW STRENGTHENS BETWEEN A BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MIN RH WILL FALL INTO THE 20S THIS AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS ARE FCST
TO BE IN THE 15-20 MPH RANGE...WHICH IS BLW RED FLAG CRITERIA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC
NEAR TERM...JMC/NV
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...DW/JM
MARINE...DW
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JMC



000
FXUS61 KOKX 251136
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
736 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER
INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FOR THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...FOLLOWED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST TEMPS. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES.

UPR LOW OVER NRN ME/ERN CANADA WILL DRIFT TO JUST S OF NOVA
SCOTIA TODAY. AT THE SAME TIME...LOW PRES WILL TRACK OFF THE NC
COAST AND OUT TO SEA. THIS PUTS THE CWA IN A SUBSIDENT
REGION...AND DESPITE THE COLD POOL ALOFT...SHOULD SUPPRESS PCPN
CHCS. AS A RESULT...MAINTAINED THE DRY FCST FOR TODAY. SUBSIDENCE
BEGINS TO WEAKEN TNGT...BUT INSTABILITY IS ALSO REDUCED WITH THE
LOSS OF SFC HEATING. THIS INSTABILITY INCREASES HOWEVER DURING THE
DAY ON SUN...WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE UPR 50S TO NEAR 60. SOME
WEAK MID LVL LIFT SHOULD HELP PROVIDE A TRIGGER. KEPT POPS
LOW...BUT WENT WITH COVERAGE WORDING. TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD CLOSE
TO GMOS25.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
COOLING BL SUN NGT SO PCPN CHCS DIMINISH. STRONGER UPR SUPPORT ON
MON...SO PCPN COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE GREATER THAN SUN. CHANGED
WORDING TO SCT...WITH POPS AROUND 40 REASONABLE ATTM. CHCS AGAIN
WANE A BIT OVERNIGHT...BUT THERE IS A BETTER CHC AT SHWRS HANGING
IN PAST DARK WITH THE SHRTWV ENERGY MOVING THRU. ANOTHER CHC FOR
SOME ISOLD SHWRS TUE AFTN...ESPECIALLY CT AND PERHAPS LI...WITH
THE H5 LOW OVER 400 MILES E OF MONTAUK. DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST
AND THE UPR FORCING IS WEAK TO NON BY TUE NGT...SO A DRY FCST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A BROAD AREA OF HI PRES BUILDS OVER THE NERN CONUS ON WED. DRY WX
EXPECTED AS A RESULT. INCREASING HEIGHTS WILL ALLOW FOR A
NOTICEABLE WARMING TREND...WITH TEMPS APPROACHING 70 ALONG AND W
OF THE HUDSON. WITH WEAK FLOW...SEA BREEZES WILL LIKELY LIMIT
TEMPS ON LI AND CT. THE GFS BRINGS AN UPR LOW THRU IN THE THU-FRI
PERIOD. THE ECMWF BRINGS THIS UPR LEVEL SYS TO THE NC COAST AND
SPAWNS A 980S LOW OVER THE ATLC. THIS LOW IS PROGGED TO GENERALLY
TRACK TO THE ENE AND THEREFORE NOT IMPACT THE CWA. MADE NO CHANGES
TO POPS FOR THE PERIOD...KEEPING THE LOW CHCS ALREADY IN THE
GRIDS. TEMPS CLOSE TO GMOS25 FOR THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OVER THE NEXT DAY...WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES WILL BE SLOW TO WORK OFFSHORE...WHILE ANOTHER AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND
CAROLINAS. IN BETWEEN...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE AREA.

THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A CONTINUATION OF VFR CONDITIONS WITH W/NW
FLOW IN THE MORNING. THE FLOW BACKS AROUND TO THE W/SW IN THE AFT
DUE TO A TROF DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA. LOCAL SEABREEZES MAY
DEVELOP IF THE FLOW WEAKENS ENOUGH. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS TO
OCCUR WILL BE AT KJFK AND KBDR. WINDS THEN VEER AROUND TO THE N
LATE SAT NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE NW.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WED...
.SUN...MAINLY VFR.
.MON-TUE...POSSIBLE MVFR WITH SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT-WED...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A
LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY
WORKS SLOWLY EAST. THERE COULD BE A SHORT PERIOD THIS MORNING WHERE
NW GUSTS COME CLOSE ON THE OCEAN WATERS...AND AGAIN ON TUE AS A NLY
FLOW STRENGTHENS BETWEEN A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MIN RH WILL FALL INTO THE 20S TODAY. WIND GUSTS ARE FCST TO BE IN
THE 15-20 MPH RANGE...WHICH IS BLW RED FLAG CRITERIA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS AND FORECAST LOWS FOR SATURDAY APRIL 25

NEWARK NJ...34/1936......35
BRIDGEPORT CT 32/1956....33
CENTRAL PARK NY 29/1919..36
LAGUARDIA NY 36/1971.....38
KENNEDY NY *37/1971......36
ISLIP NY 36/2012.........31

*AND PREVIOUS YEARS

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ067>070-
     078>081.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ002-004-
     103>105-107.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JMC
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...DW
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JMC
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KOKX 251136
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
736 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER
INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FOR THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...FOLLOWED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST TEMPS. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES.

UPR LOW OVER NRN ME/ERN CANADA WILL DRIFT TO JUST S OF NOVA
SCOTIA TODAY. AT THE SAME TIME...LOW PRES WILL TRACK OFF THE NC
COAST AND OUT TO SEA. THIS PUTS THE CWA IN A SUBSIDENT
REGION...AND DESPITE THE COLD POOL ALOFT...SHOULD SUPPRESS PCPN
CHCS. AS A RESULT...MAINTAINED THE DRY FCST FOR TODAY. SUBSIDENCE
BEGINS TO WEAKEN TNGT...BUT INSTABILITY IS ALSO REDUCED WITH THE
LOSS OF SFC HEATING. THIS INSTABILITY INCREASES HOWEVER DURING THE
DAY ON SUN...WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE UPR 50S TO NEAR 60. SOME
WEAK MID LVL LIFT SHOULD HELP PROVIDE A TRIGGER. KEPT POPS
LOW...BUT WENT WITH COVERAGE WORDING. TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD CLOSE
TO GMOS25.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
COOLING BL SUN NGT SO PCPN CHCS DIMINISH. STRONGER UPR SUPPORT ON
MON...SO PCPN COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE GREATER THAN SUN. CHANGED
WORDING TO SCT...WITH POPS AROUND 40 REASONABLE ATTM. CHCS AGAIN
WANE A BIT OVERNIGHT...BUT THERE IS A BETTER CHC AT SHWRS HANGING
IN PAST DARK WITH THE SHRTWV ENERGY MOVING THRU. ANOTHER CHC FOR
SOME ISOLD SHWRS TUE AFTN...ESPECIALLY CT AND PERHAPS LI...WITH
THE H5 LOW OVER 400 MILES E OF MONTAUK. DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST
AND THE UPR FORCING IS WEAK TO NON BY TUE NGT...SO A DRY FCST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A BROAD AREA OF HI PRES BUILDS OVER THE NERN CONUS ON WED. DRY WX
EXPECTED AS A RESULT. INCREASING HEIGHTS WILL ALLOW FOR A
NOTICEABLE WARMING TREND...WITH TEMPS APPROACHING 70 ALONG AND W
OF THE HUDSON. WITH WEAK FLOW...SEA BREEZES WILL LIKELY LIMIT
TEMPS ON LI AND CT. THE GFS BRINGS AN UPR LOW THRU IN THE THU-FRI
PERIOD. THE ECMWF BRINGS THIS UPR LEVEL SYS TO THE NC COAST AND
SPAWNS A 980S LOW OVER THE ATLC. THIS LOW IS PROGGED TO GENERALLY
TRACK TO THE ENE AND THEREFORE NOT IMPACT THE CWA. MADE NO CHANGES
TO POPS FOR THE PERIOD...KEEPING THE LOW CHCS ALREADY IN THE
GRIDS. TEMPS CLOSE TO GMOS25 FOR THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OVER THE NEXT DAY...WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES WILL BE SLOW TO WORK OFFSHORE...WHILE ANOTHER AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND
CAROLINAS. IN BETWEEN...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE AREA.

THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A CONTINUATION OF VFR CONDITIONS WITH W/NW
FLOW IN THE MORNING. THE FLOW BACKS AROUND TO THE W/SW IN THE AFT
DUE TO A TROF DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA. LOCAL SEABREEZES MAY
DEVELOP IF THE FLOW WEAKENS ENOUGH. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS TO
OCCUR WILL BE AT KJFK AND KBDR. WINDS THEN VEER AROUND TO THE N
LATE SAT NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE NW.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WED...
.SUN...MAINLY VFR.
.MON-TUE...POSSIBLE MVFR WITH SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT-WED...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A
LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY
WORKS SLOWLY EAST. THERE COULD BE A SHORT PERIOD THIS MORNING WHERE
NW GUSTS COME CLOSE ON THE OCEAN WATERS...AND AGAIN ON TUE AS A NLY
FLOW STRENGTHENS BETWEEN A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MIN RH WILL FALL INTO THE 20S TODAY. WIND GUSTS ARE FCST TO BE IN
THE 15-20 MPH RANGE...WHICH IS BLW RED FLAG CRITERIA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS AND FORECAST LOWS FOR SATURDAY APRIL 25

NEWARK NJ...34/1936......35
BRIDGEPORT CT 32/1956....33
CENTRAL PARK NY 29/1919..36
LAGUARDIA NY 36/1971.....38
KENNEDY NY *37/1971......36
ISLIP NY 36/2012.........31

*AND PREVIOUS YEARS

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ067>070-
     078>081.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ002-004-
     103>105-107.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JMC
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...DW
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JMC
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KOKX 251136
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
736 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER
INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FOR THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...FOLLOWED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST TEMPS. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES.

UPR LOW OVER NRN ME/ERN CANADA WILL DRIFT TO JUST S OF NOVA
SCOTIA TODAY. AT THE SAME TIME...LOW PRES WILL TRACK OFF THE NC
COAST AND OUT TO SEA. THIS PUTS THE CWA IN A SUBSIDENT
REGION...AND DESPITE THE COLD POOL ALOFT...SHOULD SUPPRESS PCPN
CHCS. AS A RESULT...MAINTAINED THE DRY FCST FOR TODAY. SUBSIDENCE
BEGINS TO WEAKEN TNGT...BUT INSTABILITY IS ALSO REDUCED WITH THE
LOSS OF SFC HEATING. THIS INSTABILITY INCREASES HOWEVER DURING THE
DAY ON SUN...WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE UPR 50S TO NEAR 60. SOME
WEAK MID LVL LIFT SHOULD HELP PROVIDE A TRIGGER. KEPT POPS
LOW...BUT WENT WITH COVERAGE WORDING. TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD CLOSE
TO GMOS25.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
COOLING BL SUN NGT SO PCPN CHCS DIMINISH. STRONGER UPR SUPPORT ON
MON...SO PCPN COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE GREATER THAN SUN. CHANGED
WORDING TO SCT...WITH POPS AROUND 40 REASONABLE ATTM. CHCS AGAIN
WANE A BIT OVERNIGHT...BUT THERE IS A BETTER CHC AT SHWRS HANGING
IN PAST DARK WITH THE SHRTWV ENERGY MOVING THRU. ANOTHER CHC FOR
SOME ISOLD SHWRS TUE AFTN...ESPECIALLY CT AND PERHAPS LI...WITH
THE H5 LOW OVER 400 MILES E OF MONTAUK. DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST
AND THE UPR FORCING IS WEAK TO NON BY TUE NGT...SO A DRY FCST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A BROAD AREA OF HI PRES BUILDS OVER THE NERN CONUS ON WED. DRY WX
EXPECTED AS A RESULT. INCREASING HEIGHTS WILL ALLOW FOR A
NOTICEABLE WARMING TREND...WITH TEMPS APPROACHING 70 ALONG AND W
OF THE HUDSON. WITH WEAK FLOW...SEA BREEZES WILL LIKELY LIMIT
TEMPS ON LI AND CT. THE GFS BRINGS AN UPR LOW THRU IN THE THU-FRI
PERIOD. THE ECMWF BRINGS THIS UPR LEVEL SYS TO THE NC COAST AND
SPAWNS A 980S LOW OVER THE ATLC. THIS LOW IS PROGGED TO GENERALLY
TRACK TO THE ENE AND THEREFORE NOT IMPACT THE CWA. MADE NO CHANGES
TO POPS FOR THE PERIOD...KEEPING THE LOW CHCS ALREADY IN THE
GRIDS. TEMPS CLOSE TO GMOS25 FOR THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OVER THE NEXT DAY...WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES WILL BE SLOW TO WORK OFFSHORE...WHILE ANOTHER AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND
CAROLINAS. IN BETWEEN...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE AREA.

THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A CONTINUATION OF VFR CONDITIONS WITH W/NW
FLOW IN THE MORNING. THE FLOW BACKS AROUND TO THE W/SW IN THE AFT
DUE TO A TROF DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA. LOCAL SEABREEZES MAY
DEVELOP IF THE FLOW WEAKENS ENOUGH. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS TO
OCCUR WILL BE AT KJFK AND KBDR. WINDS THEN VEER AROUND TO THE N
LATE SAT NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE NW.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WED...
.SUN...MAINLY VFR.
.MON-TUE...POSSIBLE MVFR WITH SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT-WED...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A
LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY
WORKS SLOWLY EAST. THERE COULD BE A SHORT PERIOD THIS MORNING WHERE
NW GUSTS COME CLOSE ON THE OCEAN WATERS...AND AGAIN ON TUE AS A NLY
FLOW STRENGTHENS BETWEEN A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MIN RH WILL FALL INTO THE 20S TODAY. WIND GUSTS ARE FCST TO BE IN
THE 15-20 MPH RANGE...WHICH IS BLW RED FLAG CRITERIA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS AND FORECAST LOWS FOR SATURDAY APRIL 25

NEWARK NJ...34/1936......35
BRIDGEPORT CT 32/1956....33
CENTRAL PARK NY 29/1919..36
LAGUARDIA NY 36/1971.....38
KENNEDY NY *37/1971......36
ISLIP NY 36/2012.........31

*AND PREVIOUS YEARS

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ067>070-
     078>081.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ002-004-
     103>105-107.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JMC
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...DW
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JMC
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KOKX 251136
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
736 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER
INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FOR THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...FOLLOWED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST TEMPS. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES.

UPR LOW OVER NRN ME/ERN CANADA WILL DRIFT TO JUST S OF NOVA
SCOTIA TODAY. AT THE SAME TIME...LOW PRES WILL TRACK OFF THE NC
COAST AND OUT TO SEA. THIS PUTS THE CWA IN A SUBSIDENT
REGION...AND DESPITE THE COLD POOL ALOFT...SHOULD SUPPRESS PCPN
CHCS. AS A RESULT...MAINTAINED THE DRY FCST FOR TODAY. SUBSIDENCE
BEGINS TO WEAKEN TNGT...BUT INSTABILITY IS ALSO REDUCED WITH THE
LOSS OF SFC HEATING. THIS INSTABILITY INCREASES HOWEVER DURING THE
DAY ON SUN...WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE UPR 50S TO NEAR 60. SOME
WEAK MID LVL LIFT SHOULD HELP PROVIDE A TRIGGER. KEPT POPS
LOW...BUT WENT WITH COVERAGE WORDING. TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD CLOSE
TO GMOS25.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
COOLING BL SUN NGT SO PCPN CHCS DIMINISH. STRONGER UPR SUPPORT ON
MON...SO PCPN COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE GREATER THAN SUN. CHANGED
WORDING TO SCT...WITH POPS AROUND 40 REASONABLE ATTM. CHCS AGAIN
WANE A BIT OVERNIGHT...BUT THERE IS A BETTER CHC AT SHWRS HANGING
IN PAST DARK WITH THE SHRTWV ENERGY MOVING THRU. ANOTHER CHC FOR
SOME ISOLD SHWRS TUE AFTN...ESPECIALLY CT AND PERHAPS LI...WITH
THE H5 LOW OVER 400 MILES E OF MONTAUK. DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST
AND THE UPR FORCING IS WEAK TO NON BY TUE NGT...SO A DRY FCST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A BROAD AREA OF HI PRES BUILDS OVER THE NERN CONUS ON WED. DRY WX
EXPECTED AS A RESULT. INCREASING HEIGHTS WILL ALLOW FOR A
NOTICEABLE WARMING TREND...WITH TEMPS APPROACHING 70 ALONG AND W
OF THE HUDSON. WITH WEAK FLOW...SEA BREEZES WILL LIKELY LIMIT
TEMPS ON LI AND CT. THE GFS BRINGS AN UPR LOW THRU IN THE THU-FRI
PERIOD. THE ECMWF BRINGS THIS UPR LEVEL SYS TO THE NC COAST AND
SPAWNS A 980S LOW OVER THE ATLC. THIS LOW IS PROGGED TO GENERALLY
TRACK TO THE ENE AND THEREFORE NOT IMPACT THE CWA. MADE NO CHANGES
TO POPS FOR THE PERIOD...KEEPING THE LOW CHCS ALREADY IN THE
GRIDS. TEMPS CLOSE TO GMOS25 FOR THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OVER THE NEXT DAY...WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES WILL BE SLOW TO WORK OFFSHORE...WHILE ANOTHER AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND
CAROLINAS. IN BETWEEN...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE AREA.

THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A CONTINUATION OF VFR CONDITIONS WITH W/NW
FLOW IN THE MORNING. THE FLOW BACKS AROUND TO THE W/SW IN THE AFT
DUE TO A TROF DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA. LOCAL SEABREEZES MAY
DEVELOP IF THE FLOW WEAKENS ENOUGH. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS TO
OCCUR WILL BE AT KJFK AND KBDR. WINDS THEN VEER AROUND TO THE N
LATE SAT NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE NW.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WED...
.SUN...MAINLY VFR.
.MON-TUE...POSSIBLE MVFR WITH SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT-WED...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A
LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY
WORKS SLOWLY EAST. THERE COULD BE A SHORT PERIOD THIS MORNING WHERE
NW GUSTS COME CLOSE ON THE OCEAN WATERS...AND AGAIN ON TUE AS A NLY
FLOW STRENGTHENS BETWEEN A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MIN RH WILL FALL INTO THE 20S TODAY. WIND GUSTS ARE FCST TO BE IN
THE 15-20 MPH RANGE...WHICH IS BLW RED FLAG CRITERIA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS AND FORECAST LOWS FOR SATURDAY APRIL 25

NEWARK NJ...34/1936......35
BRIDGEPORT CT 32/1956....33
CENTRAL PARK NY 29/1919..36
LAGUARDIA NY 36/1971.....38
KENNEDY NY *37/1971......36
ISLIP NY 36/2012.........31

*AND PREVIOUS YEARS

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ067>070-
     078>081.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ002-004-
     103>105-107.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JMC
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...DW
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JMC
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 251055
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
655 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH
SPOTTY SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES. PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF NEXT
WEEK AS WELL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

700 AM UPDATE...

OVERALL TREND IN THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. WATCHING SCT
ECHOES MOVING DOWN FROM MAINE TO ESSEX COUNTY. NOT EXPECTING MUCH
IN PRECIP BUT DID ADD FLURRIES/SPRINKLES TO THE FORECAST. GUSTY
WINDS ALONG THE COAST WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOUR. EXPECT A QUIET DAY...HOWEVER MAY SEE A SPOT SHOWER IN THE
AFTERNOON. SHORTWAVE MOVING AROUND THE FLOW COULD TRIGGER A FEW
ISO DIURNAL SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE JUST MADE SOME MINOR
TWEAKS TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.

FREEZE WARNING WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 12Z AS MANY SITES ACROSS CT AND
RI HAVE DROPPED BELOW 32F THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

LATEST SATELLITE DATA INDICATES SKIES ARE NOW MOSTLY CLEAR OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MESONET TEMPERATURES ARE STARTING TO REFLECT
THIS AS WELL...WITH MORE THAN A FEW READINGS AROUND FREEZING...OR
LOWER. CURRENT FREEZE WARNINGS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING.

THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL SHIFTS SLIGHTLY FURTHER AWAY FROM OUR
REGION TODAY....BUT STILL CLOSE ENOUGH TO HAVE SOME INFLUENCE ON
OUR WEATHER. THE MAIN CHANGES WILL BE SLIGHTLY LESS CLOUDS...
PARTICULARLY TOWARD SOUTHWEST NEW ENGLAND. THE SURFACE LAYER WILL
BE DRIER...SO MOST ATTEMPTS AT PRECIPITATION SHOULD EVAPORATE ON
THE WAY DOWN. DECENT MIXING...SO WE SHOULD SEE ANOTHER GUSTY DAY
WITH PEAK GUSTS AROUND 20 KT/25 MPH. MORE SUNSHINE SHOULD MEAN
SLIGHTLY HIGHER MAX TEMPERATURES THAN FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
WEAK RIDGE BUILDS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT...PROVIDING
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE 30S...SO MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE 30S
ONCE MORE.

FOR SUNDAY...THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO
OUR REGION. THUS WE WILL BE IN A MORE FAVORABLE POSITION FOR
DIURNAL CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. SO...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE OVER THE
LAST SEVERAL DAYS...SKIES SHOULD START OFF PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY.
THEN CLOUDS DEVELOP ALONG WITH A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
NEAR AND NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE. EXPECTING MAX TEMPERATURES TO BE
MAINLY IN THE 50S. IF A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE WORKS THROUGH THE
CLOUDS ACROSS THE LOWER CT VALLEY...READINGS MAY TOUCH 60 IN A FEW
SPOTS THERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT WEEK
* SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS MONDAY AND TUESDAY
* HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY
* LOW CONFIDENCE ON COASTAL SYSTEM THURS/FRIDAY

OVERVIEW...

STRETCHED CLOSED LOW OVER THE REGION WILL BRING SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
THROUGH THE FLOW MONDAY AND INTO EARLY TUESDAY. NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE APPEARS TO PUSH CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST
KICKING THIS LOW OUT TO SEA BY WEDNESDAY.

BEYOND THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN AS GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SPLIT. OVERALL APPEARS UNSETTLED WEATHER AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUE AS BLOCKING PATTERN PERSIST...SUPPORTED BY
-NAO/-AO/+PNA. BOTH MODELS AGREE IN BREAKING THE RIDGE DOWN FAIRLY
QUICKLY ON WEDNESDAY. AMONG THE OPERATIONAL MODELS THE PAST COUPLE
ECMWF RUNS AND NEW 00Z UKMET SEEM TO FORM ONE CLUSTER THAT IS QUITE
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE DEPTH/CLOSURE OF ENERGY FROM THE GREAT LAKES
INTO MID ATLC...AND STILL WITH VERY DIFFERENT SFC SOLNS...WHILE SOME
RECENT GFS RUNS AND THE 00Z/24 ECMWF WERE MOST PRONOUNCED IN
BRINGING TRAILING NERN PAC AND/OR CANADIAN ENERGY ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST AS A CONCENTRATED UPR LOW LATE IN THE PERIOD.  THE LATTER
FEATURE WOULD BRING DEEP SFC LOW PRES CLOSE TO NEW ENGLAND OR AT
LEAST THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AS IN THE THE NEW 00Z GFS. REGARDLESS
BOTH CAMPS CONTINUE TO PUT THE EASTERN CONUS IN A DEEP TROUGH AT THE
END OF THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. THEREFORE FELT ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE WAS BEST FOR THE WORK WEEK FORECAST.

DETAILS...

* MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN BRINGING ITS COOL POOL
OVER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. CHANCES OF PRECIP HAS INCREASED...ESP ON
MONDAY AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW FROM THE NORTH.
EXPECT SCT DIURNAL SHOWERS AS COLD POOL ALOFT WILL BE SITTING OVER
THE REGION. PRECIP CHANCES ARE SLIGHTLY LOWER ON TUESDAY AS COLD
POOL AND UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGIN TO MOVE OFFSHORE...ESP LATE IN THE
DAY. TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON
MONDAY AND ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY.

* WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

DIGGING TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL PUSH RIDGE OVER THE
REGION. THIS WILL GIVE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND A BREAK IN PRECIP AND
TEMPS NEAR NORMAL. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER
THANKS TO PERSISTENT NORTHERLY FLOW.

* THURSDAY AND BEYOND...LOW CONFIDENCE.

STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. EVERYTHING
IS DEPENDENT ON HOW THE CUT-OFF LOW IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND
DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM WAVES BEHAVES.  REGARDLESS APPEARS DEEP
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP PUTTING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BACK BELOW NORMAL
FOR TEMPS WITH AN INCREASE IN UNSETTLED WEATHER. STILL WATCHING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL LOW ON THURSDAY/FRIDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND EC
HAVE PUSHED THE LOW OUT TO SEA...OR FOCUSED ON THE MID-ATLANTIC
WHERE THE ENSEMBLES KEEP IT NEAR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. STILL A LOT
OF UNCERTAINTY AND WILL NEED TO WAIT UNTIL MODELS CAN GET A BETTER
SAMPLE ON THE SHORTWAVES WHEN THEY COME OFF THE PACIFIC.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR IN SPOTTY
SHOWERS. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING AROUND 20 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS. SEA BREEZES
LIKELY. POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR IN SPOTTY SHOWERS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF. LOW CONFIDENCE IN LATE
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THOUGH WEDNESDAY...

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
IN SCT SHOWERS. SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST
COAST.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS GUST TO 20 KT...WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KT
OFFSHORE. SEAS LINGER NEAR 5 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS THIS
MORNING...THEN SUBSIDE.

TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA. EXPECT NW WINDS TO SHIFT TO NE SUNDAY...BUT REMAIN
BELOW 15 KT. SEA BREEZES LIKELY SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THOUGHT WEDNESDAY...

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO SPIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. HIT OR MISS SHOWERS POSSIBLE
DURING THE DAY. WIND AND SEAS TO REMAINS BELOW SCA ON SUNDAY. POTENT
COLD POOL WILL FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH CREATING STRONG CAA AN
INCREASE WINDS/SEAS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SCA MAY BE NEEDED.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH KEEPING SEAS AND WINDS BELOW SCA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...NONE.
RI...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR RIZ001-003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ250-
     256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...BELK/DUNTEN/EVT
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 251055
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
655 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH
SPOTTY SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES. PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF NEXT
WEEK AS WELL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

700 AM UPDATE...

OVERALL TREND IN THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. WATCHING SCT
ECHOES MOVING DOWN FROM MAINE TO ESSEX COUNTY. NOT EXPECTING MUCH
IN PRECIP BUT DID ADD FLURRIES/SPRINKLES TO THE FORECAST. GUSTY
WINDS ALONG THE COAST WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOUR. EXPECT A QUIET DAY...HOWEVER MAY SEE A SPOT SHOWER IN THE
AFTERNOON. SHORTWAVE MOVING AROUND THE FLOW COULD TRIGGER A FEW
ISO DIURNAL SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE JUST MADE SOME MINOR
TWEAKS TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.

FREEZE WARNING WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 12Z AS MANY SITES ACROSS CT AND
RI HAVE DROPPED BELOW 32F THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

LATEST SATELLITE DATA INDICATES SKIES ARE NOW MOSTLY CLEAR OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MESONET TEMPERATURES ARE STARTING TO REFLECT
THIS AS WELL...WITH MORE THAN A FEW READINGS AROUND FREEZING...OR
LOWER. CURRENT FREEZE WARNINGS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING.

THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL SHIFTS SLIGHTLY FURTHER AWAY FROM OUR
REGION TODAY....BUT STILL CLOSE ENOUGH TO HAVE SOME INFLUENCE ON
OUR WEATHER. THE MAIN CHANGES WILL BE SLIGHTLY LESS CLOUDS...
PARTICULARLY TOWARD SOUTHWEST NEW ENGLAND. THE SURFACE LAYER WILL
BE DRIER...SO MOST ATTEMPTS AT PRECIPITATION SHOULD EVAPORATE ON
THE WAY DOWN. DECENT MIXING...SO WE SHOULD SEE ANOTHER GUSTY DAY
WITH PEAK GUSTS AROUND 20 KT/25 MPH. MORE SUNSHINE SHOULD MEAN
SLIGHTLY HIGHER MAX TEMPERATURES THAN FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
WEAK RIDGE BUILDS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT...PROVIDING
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE 30S...SO MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE 30S
ONCE MORE.

FOR SUNDAY...THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO
OUR REGION. THUS WE WILL BE IN A MORE FAVORABLE POSITION FOR
DIURNAL CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. SO...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE OVER THE
LAST SEVERAL DAYS...SKIES SHOULD START OFF PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY.
THEN CLOUDS DEVELOP ALONG WITH A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
NEAR AND NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE. EXPECTING MAX TEMPERATURES TO BE
MAINLY IN THE 50S. IF A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE WORKS THROUGH THE
CLOUDS ACROSS THE LOWER CT VALLEY...READINGS MAY TOUCH 60 IN A FEW
SPOTS THERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT WEEK
* SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS MONDAY AND TUESDAY
* HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY
* LOW CONFIDENCE ON COASTAL SYSTEM THURS/FRIDAY

OVERVIEW...

STRETCHED CLOSED LOW OVER THE REGION WILL BRING SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
THROUGH THE FLOW MONDAY AND INTO EARLY TUESDAY. NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE APPEARS TO PUSH CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST
KICKING THIS LOW OUT TO SEA BY WEDNESDAY.

BEYOND THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN AS GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SPLIT. OVERALL APPEARS UNSETTLED WEATHER AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUE AS BLOCKING PATTERN PERSIST...SUPPORTED BY
-NAO/-AO/+PNA. BOTH MODELS AGREE IN BREAKING THE RIDGE DOWN FAIRLY
QUICKLY ON WEDNESDAY. AMONG THE OPERATIONAL MODELS THE PAST COUPLE
ECMWF RUNS AND NEW 00Z UKMET SEEM TO FORM ONE CLUSTER THAT IS QUITE
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE DEPTH/CLOSURE OF ENERGY FROM THE GREAT LAKES
INTO MID ATLC...AND STILL WITH VERY DIFFERENT SFC SOLNS...WHILE SOME
RECENT GFS RUNS AND THE 00Z/24 ECMWF WERE MOST PRONOUNCED IN
BRINGING TRAILING NERN PAC AND/OR CANADIAN ENERGY ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST AS A CONCENTRATED UPR LOW LATE IN THE PERIOD.  THE LATTER
FEATURE WOULD BRING DEEP SFC LOW PRES CLOSE TO NEW ENGLAND OR AT
LEAST THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AS IN THE THE NEW 00Z GFS. REGARDLESS
BOTH CAMPS CONTINUE TO PUT THE EASTERN CONUS IN A DEEP TROUGH AT THE
END OF THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. THEREFORE FELT ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE WAS BEST FOR THE WORK WEEK FORECAST.

DETAILS...

* MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN BRINGING ITS COOL POOL
OVER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. CHANCES OF PRECIP HAS INCREASED...ESP ON
MONDAY AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW FROM THE NORTH.
EXPECT SCT DIURNAL SHOWERS AS COLD POOL ALOFT WILL BE SITTING OVER
THE REGION. PRECIP CHANCES ARE SLIGHTLY LOWER ON TUESDAY AS COLD
POOL AND UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGIN TO MOVE OFFSHORE...ESP LATE IN THE
DAY. TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON
MONDAY AND ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY.

* WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

DIGGING TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL PUSH RIDGE OVER THE
REGION. THIS WILL GIVE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND A BREAK IN PRECIP AND
TEMPS NEAR NORMAL. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER
THANKS TO PERSISTENT NORTHERLY FLOW.

* THURSDAY AND BEYOND...LOW CONFIDENCE.

STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. EVERYTHING
IS DEPENDENT ON HOW THE CUT-OFF LOW IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND
DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM WAVES BEHAVES.  REGARDLESS APPEARS DEEP
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP PUTTING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BACK BELOW NORMAL
FOR TEMPS WITH AN INCREASE IN UNSETTLED WEATHER. STILL WATCHING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL LOW ON THURSDAY/FRIDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND EC
HAVE PUSHED THE LOW OUT TO SEA...OR FOCUSED ON THE MID-ATLANTIC
WHERE THE ENSEMBLES KEEP IT NEAR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. STILL A LOT
OF UNCERTAINTY AND WILL NEED TO WAIT UNTIL MODELS CAN GET A BETTER
SAMPLE ON THE SHORTWAVES WHEN THEY COME OFF THE PACIFIC.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR IN SPOTTY
SHOWERS. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING AROUND 20 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS. SEA BREEZES
LIKELY. POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR IN SPOTTY SHOWERS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF. LOW CONFIDENCE IN LATE
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THOUGH WEDNESDAY...

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
IN SCT SHOWERS. SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST
COAST.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS GUST TO 20 KT...WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KT
OFFSHORE. SEAS LINGER NEAR 5 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS THIS
MORNING...THEN SUBSIDE.

TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA. EXPECT NW WINDS TO SHIFT TO NE SUNDAY...BUT REMAIN
BELOW 15 KT. SEA BREEZES LIKELY SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THOUGHT WEDNESDAY...

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO SPIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. HIT OR MISS SHOWERS POSSIBLE
DURING THE DAY. WIND AND SEAS TO REMAINS BELOW SCA ON SUNDAY. POTENT
COLD POOL WILL FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH CREATING STRONG CAA AN
INCREASE WINDS/SEAS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SCA MAY BE NEEDED.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH KEEPING SEAS AND WINDS BELOW SCA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...NONE.
RI...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR RIZ001-003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ250-
     256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...BELK/DUNTEN/EVT
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 251055
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
655 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH
SPOTTY SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES. PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF NEXT
WEEK AS WELL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

700 AM UPDATE...

OVERALL TREND IN THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. WATCHING SCT
ECHOES MOVING DOWN FROM MAINE TO ESSEX COUNTY. NOT EXPECTING MUCH
IN PRECIP BUT DID ADD FLURRIES/SPRINKLES TO THE FORECAST. GUSTY
WINDS ALONG THE COAST WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOUR. EXPECT A QUIET DAY...HOWEVER MAY SEE A SPOT SHOWER IN THE
AFTERNOON. SHORTWAVE MOVING AROUND THE FLOW COULD TRIGGER A FEW
ISO DIURNAL SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE JUST MADE SOME MINOR
TWEAKS TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.

FREEZE WARNING WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 12Z AS MANY SITES ACROSS CT AND
RI HAVE DROPPED BELOW 32F THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

LATEST SATELLITE DATA INDICATES SKIES ARE NOW MOSTLY CLEAR OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MESONET TEMPERATURES ARE STARTING TO REFLECT
THIS AS WELL...WITH MORE THAN A FEW READINGS AROUND FREEZING...OR
LOWER. CURRENT FREEZE WARNINGS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING.

THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL SHIFTS SLIGHTLY FURTHER AWAY FROM OUR
REGION TODAY....BUT STILL CLOSE ENOUGH TO HAVE SOME INFLUENCE ON
OUR WEATHER. THE MAIN CHANGES WILL BE SLIGHTLY LESS CLOUDS...
PARTICULARLY TOWARD SOUTHWEST NEW ENGLAND. THE SURFACE LAYER WILL
BE DRIER...SO MOST ATTEMPTS AT PRECIPITATION SHOULD EVAPORATE ON
THE WAY DOWN. DECENT MIXING...SO WE SHOULD SEE ANOTHER GUSTY DAY
WITH PEAK GUSTS AROUND 20 KT/25 MPH. MORE SUNSHINE SHOULD MEAN
SLIGHTLY HIGHER MAX TEMPERATURES THAN FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
WEAK RIDGE BUILDS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT...PROVIDING
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE 30S...SO MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE 30S
ONCE MORE.

FOR SUNDAY...THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO
OUR REGION. THUS WE WILL BE IN A MORE FAVORABLE POSITION FOR
DIURNAL CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. SO...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE OVER THE
LAST SEVERAL DAYS...SKIES SHOULD START OFF PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY.
THEN CLOUDS DEVELOP ALONG WITH A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
NEAR AND NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE. EXPECTING MAX TEMPERATURES TO BE
MAINLY IN THE 50S. IF A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE WORKS THROUGH THE
CLOUDS ACROSS THE LOWER CT VALLEY...READINGS MAY TOUCH 60 IN A FEW
SPOTS THERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT WEEK
* SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS MONDAY AND TUESDAY
* HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY
* LOW CONFIDENCE ON COASTAL SYSTEM THURS/FRIDAY

OVERVIEW...

STRETCHED CLOSED LOW OVER THE REGION WILL BRING SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
THROUGH THE FLOW MONDAY AND INTO EARLY TUESDAY. NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE APPEARS TO PUSH CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST
KICKING THIS LOW OUT TO SEA BY WEDNESDAY.

BEYOND THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN AS GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SPLIT. OVERALL APPEARS UNSETTLED WEATHER AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUE AS BLOCKING PATTERN PERSIST...SUPPORTED BY
-NAO/-AO/+PNA. BOTH MODELS AGREE IN BREAKING THE RIDGE DOWN FAIRLY
QUICKLY ON WEDNESDAY. AMONG THE OPERATIONAL MODELS THE PAST COUPLE
ECMWF RUNS AND NEW 00Z UKMET SEEM TO FORM ONE CLUSTER THAT IS QUITE
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE DEPTH/CLOSURE OF ENERGY FROM THE GREAT LAKES
INTO MID ATLC...AND STILL WITH VERY DIFFERENT SFC SOLNS...WHILE SOME
RECENT GFS RUNS AND THE 00Z/24 ECMWF WERE MOST PRONOUNCED IN
BRINGING TRAILING NERN PAC AND/OR CANADIAN ENERGY ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST AS A CONCENTRATED UPR LOW LATE IN THE PERIOD.  THE LATTER
FEATURE WOULD BRING DEEP SFC LOW PRES CLOSE TO NEW ENGLAND OR AT
LEAST THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AS IN THE THE NEW 00Z GFS. REGARDLESS
BOTH CAMPS CONTINUE TO PUT THE EASTERN CONUS IN A DEEP TROUGH AT THE
END OF THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. THEREFORE FELT ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE WAS BEST FOR THE WORK WEEK FORECAST.

DETAILS...

* MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN BRINGING ITS COOL POOL
OVER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. CHANCES OF PRECIP HAS INCREASED...ESP ON
MONDAY AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW FROM THE NORTH.
EXPECT SCT DIURNAL SHOWERS AS COLD POOL ALOFT WILL BE SITTING OVER
THE REGION. PRECIP CHANCES ARE SLIGHTLY LOWER ON TUESDAY AS COLD
POOL AND UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGIN TO MOVE OFFSHORE...ESP LATE IN THE
DAY. TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON
MONDAY AND ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY.

* WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

DIGGING TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL PUSH RIDGE OVER THE
REGION. THIS WILL GIVE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND A BREAK IN PRECIP AND
TEMPS NEAR NORMAL. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER
THANKS TO PERSISTENT NORTHERLY FLOW.

* THURSDAY AND BEYOND...LOW CONFIDENCE.

STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. EVERYTHING
IS DEPENDENT ON HOW THE CUT-OFF LOW IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND
DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM WAVES BEHAVES.  REGARDLESS APPEARS DEEP
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP PUTTING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BACK BELOW NORMAL
FOR TEMPS WITH AN INCREASE IN UNSETTLED WEATHER. STILL WATCHING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL LOW ON THURSDAY/FRIDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND EC
HAVE PUSHED THE LOW OUT TO SEA...OR FOCUSED ON THE MID-ATLANTIC
WHERE THE ENSEMBLES KEEP IT NEAR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. STILL A LOT
OF UNCERTAINTY AND WILL NEED TO WAIT UNTIL MODELS CAN GET A BETTER
SAMPLE ON THE SHORTWAVES WHEN THEY COME OFF THE PACIFIC.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR IN SPOTTY
SHOWERS. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING AROUND 20 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS. SEA BREEZES
LIKELY. POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR IN SPOTTY SHOWERS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF. LOW CONFIDENCE IN LATE
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THOUGH WEDNESDAY...

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
IN SCT SHOWERS. SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST
COAST.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS GUST TO 20 KT...WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KT
OFFSHORE. SEAS LINGER NEAR 5 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS THIS
MORNING...THEN SUBSIDE.

TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA. EXPECT NW WINDS TO SHIFT TO NE SUNDAY...BUT REMAIN
BELOW 15 KT. SEA BREEZES LIKELY SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THOUGHT WEDNESDAY...

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO SPIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. HIT OR MISS SHOWERS POSSIBLE
DURING THE DAY. WIND AND SEAS TO REMAINS BELOW SCA ON SUNDAY. POTENT
COLD POOL WILL FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH CREATING STRONG CAA AN
INCREASE WINDS/SEAS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SCA MAY BE NEEDED.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH KEEPING SEAS AND WINDS BELOW SCA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...NONE.
RI...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR RIZ001-003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ250-
     256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...BELK/DUNTEN/EVT
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 251055
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
655 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH
SPOTTY SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES. PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF NEXT
WEEK AS WELL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

700 AM UPDATE...

OVERALL TREND IN THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. WATCHING SCT
ECHOES MOVING DOWN FROM MAINE TO ESSEX COUNTY. NOT EXPECTING MUCH
IN PRECIP BUT DID ADD FLURRIES/SPRINKLES TO THE FORECAST. GUSTY
WINDS ALONG THE COAST WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOUR. EXPECT A QUIET DAY...HOWEVER MAY SEE A SPOT SHOWER IN THE
AFTERNOON. SHORTWAVE MOVING AROUND THE FLOW COULD TRIGGER A FEW
ISO DIURNAL SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE JUST MADE SOME MINOR
TWEAKS TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.

FREEZE WARNING WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 12Z AS MANY SITES ACROSS CT AND
RI HAVE DROPPED BELOW 32F THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

LATEST SATELLITE DATA INDICATES SKIES ARE NOW MOSTLY CLEAR OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MESONET TEMPERATURES ARE STARTING TO REFLECT
THIS AS WELL...WITH MORE THAN A FEW READINGS AROUND FREEZING...OR
LOWER. CURRENT FREEZE WARNINGS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING.

THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL SHIFTS SLIGHTLY FURTHER AWAY FROM OUR
REGION TODAY....BUT STILL CLOSE ENOUGH TO HAVE SOME INFLUENCE ON
OUR WEATHER. THE MAIN CHANGES WILL BE SLIGHTLY LESS CLOUDS...
PARTICULARLY TOWARD SOUTHWEST NEW ENGLAND. THE SURFACE LAYER WILL
BE DRIER...SO MOST ATTEMPTS AT PRECIPITATION SHOULD EVAPORATE ON
THE WAY DOWN. DECENT MIXING...SO WE SHOULD SEE ANOTHER GUSTY DAY
WITH PEAK GUSTS AROUND 20 KT/25 MPH. MORE SUNSHINE SHOULD MEAN
SLIGHTLY HIGHER MAX TEMPERATURES THAN FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
WEAK RIDGE BUILDS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT...PROVIDING
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE 30S...SO MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE 30S
ONCE MORE.

FOR SUNDAY...THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO
OUR REGION. THUS WE WILL BE IN A MORE FAVORABLE POSITION FOR
DIURNAL CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. SO...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE OVER THE
LAST SEVERAL DAYS...SKIES SHOULD START OFF PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY.
THEN CLOUDS DEVELOP ALONG WITH A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
NEAR AND NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE. EXPECTING MAX TEMPERATURES TO BE
MAINLY IN THE 50S. IF A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE WORKS THROUGH THE
CLOUDS ACROSS THE LOWER CT VALLEY...READINGS MAY TOUCH 60 IN A FEW
SPOTS THERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT WEEK
* SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS MONDAY AND TUESDAY
* HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY
* LOW CONFIDENCE ON COASTAL SYSTEM THURS/FRIDAY

OVERVIEW...

STRETCHED CLOSED LOW OVER THE REGION WILL BRING SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
THROUGH THE FLOW MONDAY AND INTO EARLY TUESDAY. NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE APPEARS TO PUSH CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST
KICKING THIS LOW OUT TO SEA BY WEDNESDAY.

BEYOND THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN AS GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SPLIT. OVERALL APPEARS UNSETTLED WEATHER AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUE AS BLOCKING PATTERN PERSIST...SUPPORTED BY
-NAO/-AO/+PNA. BOTH MODELS AGREE IN BREAKING THE RIDGE DOWN FAIRLY
QUICKLY ON WEDNESDAY. AMONG THE OPERATIONAL MODELS THE PAST COUPLE
ECMWF RUNS AND NEW 00Z UKMET SEEM TO FORM ONE CLUSTER THAT IS QUITE
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE DEPTH/CLOSURE OF ENERGY FROM THE GREAT LAKES
INTO MID ATLC...AND STILL WITH VERY DIFFERENT SFC SOLNS...WHILE SOME
RECENT GFS RUNS AND THE 00Z/24 ECMWF WERE MOST PRONOUNCED IN
BRINGING TRAILING NERN PAC AND/OR CANADIAN ENERGY ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST AS A CONCENTRATED UPR LOW LATE IN THE PERIOD.  THE LATTER
FEATURE WOULD BRING DEEP SFC LOW PRES CLOSE TO NEW ENGLAND OR AT
LEAST THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AS IN THE THE NEW 00Z GFS. REGARDLESS
BOTH CAMPS CONTINUE TO PUT THE EASTERN CONUS IN A DEEP TROUGH AT THE
END OF THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. THEREFORE FELT ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE WAS BEST FOR THE WORK WEEK FORECAST.

DETAILS...

* MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN BRINGING ITS COOL POOL
OVER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. CHANCES OF PRECIP HAS INCREASED...ESP ON
MONDAY AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW FROM THE NORTH.
EXPECT SCT DIURNAL SHOWERS AS COLD POOL ALOFT WILL BE SITTING OVER
THE REGION. PRECIP CHANCES ARE SLIGHTLY LOWER ON TUESDAY AS COLD
POOL AND UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGIN TO MOVE OFFSHORE...ESP LATE IN THE
DAY. TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON
MONDAY AND ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY.

* WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

DIGGING TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL PUSH RIDGE OVER THE
REGION. THIS WILL GIVE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND A BREAK IN PRECIP AND
TEMPS NEAR NORMAL. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER
THANKS TO PERSISTENT NORTHERLY FLOW.

* THURSDAY AND BEYOND...LOW CONFIDENCE.

STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. EVERYTHING
IS DEPENDENT ON HOW THE CUT-OFF LOW IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND
DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM WAVES BEHAVES.  REGARDLESS APPEARS DEEP
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP PUTTING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BACK BELOW NORMAL
FOR TEMPS WITH AN INCREASE IN UNSETTLED WEATHER. STILL WATCHING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL LOW ON THURSDAY/FRIDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND EC
HAVE PUSHED THE LOW OUT TO SEA...OR FOCUSED ON THE MID-ATLANTIC
WHERE THE ENSEMBLES KEEP IT NEAR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. STILL A LOT
OF UNCERTAINTY AND WILL NEED TO WAIT UNTIL MODELS CAN GET A BETTER
SAMPLE ON THE SHORTWAVES WHEN THEY COME OFF THE PACIFIC.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR IN SPOTTY
SHOWERS. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING AROUND 20 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS. SEA BREEZES
LIKELY. POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR IN SPOTTY SHOWERS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF. LOW CONFIDENCE IN LATE
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THOUGH WEDNESDAY...

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
IN SCT SHOWERS. SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST
COAST.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS GUST TO 20 KT...WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KT
OFFSHORE. SEAS LINGER NEAR 5 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS THIS
MORNING...THEN SUBSIDE.

TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA. EXPECT NW WINDS TO SHIFT TO NE SUNDAY...BUT REMAIN
BELOW 15 KT. SEA BREEZES LIKELY SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THOUGHT WEDNESDAY...

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO SPIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. HIT OR MISS SHOWERS POSSIBLE
DURING THE DAY. WIND AND SEAS TO REMAINS BELOW SCA ON SUNDAY. POTENT
COLD POOL WILL FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH CREATING STRONG CAA AN
INCREASE WINDS/SEAS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SCA MAY BE NEEDED.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH KEEPING SEAS AND WINDS BELOW SCA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...NONE.
RI...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR RIZ001-003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ250-
     256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...BELK/DUNTEN/EVT
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 251055
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
655 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH
SPOTTY SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES. PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF NEXT
WEEK AS WELL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

700 AM UPDATE...

OVERALL TREND IN THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. WATCHING SCT
ECHOES MOVING DOWN FROM MAINE TO ESSEX COUNTY. NOT EXPECTING MUCH
IN PRECIP BUT DID ADD FLURRIES/SPRINKLES TO THE FORECAST. GUSTY
WINDS ALONG THE COAST WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOUR. EXPECT A QUIET DAY...HOWEVER MAY SEE A SPOT SHOWER IN THE
AFTERNOON. SHORTWAVE MOVING AROUND THE FLOW COULD TRIGGER A FEW
ISO DIURNAL SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE JUST MADE SOME MINOR
TWEAKS TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.

FREEZE WARNING WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 12Z AS MANY SITES ACROSS CT AND
RI HAVE DROPPED BELOW 32F THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

LATEST SATELLITE DATA INDICATES SKIES ARE NOW MOSTLY CLEAR OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MESONET TEMPERATURES ARE STARTING TO REFLECT
THIS AS WELL...WITH MORE THAN A FEW READINGS AROUND FREEZING...OR
LOWER. CURRENT FREEZE WARNINGS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING.

THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL SHIFTS SLIGHTLY FURTHER AWAY FROM OUR
REGION TODAY....BUT STILL CLOSE ENOUGH TO HAVE SOME INFLUENCE ON
OUR WEATHER. THE MAIN CHANGES WILL BE SLIGHTLY LESS CLOUDS...
PARTICULARLY TOWARD SOUTHWEST NEW ENGLAND. THE SURFACE LAYER WILL
BE DRIER...SO MOST ATTEMPTS AT PRECIPITATION SHOULD EVAPORATE ON
THE WAY DOWN. DECENT MIXING...SO WE SHOULD SEE ANOTHER GUSTY DAY
WITH PEAK GUSTS AROUND 20 KT/25 MPH. MORE SUNSHINE SHOULD MEAN
SLIGHTLY HIGHER MAX TEMPERATURES THAN FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
WEAK RIDGE BUILDS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT...PROVIDING
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE 30S...SO MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE 30S
ONCE MORE.

FOR SUNDAY...THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO
OUR REGION. THUS WE WILL BE IN A MORE FAVORABLE POSITION FOR
DIURNAL CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. SO...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE OVER THE
LAST SEVERAL DAYS...SKIES SHOULD START OFF PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY.
THEN CLOUDS DEVELOP ALONG WITH A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
NEAR AND NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE. EXPECTING MAX TEMPERATURES TO BE
MAINLY IN THE 50S. IF A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE WORKS THROUGH THE
CLOUDS ACROSS THE LOWER CT VALLEY...READINGS MAY TOUCH 60 IN A FEW
SPOTS THERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT WEEK
* SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS MONDAY AND TUESDAY
* HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY
* LOW CONFIDENCE ON COASTAL SYSTEM THURS/FRIDAY

OVERVIEW...

STRETCHED CLOSED LOW OVER THE REGION WILL BRING SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
THROUGH THE FLOW MONDAY AND INTO EARLY TUESDAY. NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE APPEARS TO PUSH CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST
KICKING THIS LOW OUT TO SEA BY WEDNESDAY.

BEYOND THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN AS GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SPLIT. OVERALL APPEARS UNSETTLED WEATHER AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUE AS BLOCKING PATTERN PERSIST...SUPPORTED BY
-NAO/-AO/+PNA. BOTH MODELS AGREE IN BREAKING THE RIDGE DOWN FAIRLY
QUICKLY ON WEDNESDAY. AMONG THE OPERATIONAL MODELS THE PAST COUPLE
ECMWF RUNS AND NEW 00Z UKMET SEEM TO FORM ONE CLUSTER THAT IS QUITE
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE DEPTH/CLOSURE OF ENERGY FROM THE GREAT LAKES
INTO MID ATLC...AND STILL WITH VERY DIFFERENT SFC SOLNS...WHILE SOME
RECENT GFS RUNS AND THE 00Z/24 ECMWF WERE MOST PRONOUNCED IN
BRINGING TRAILING NERN PAC AND/OR CANADIAN ENERGY ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST AS A CONCENTRATED UPR LOW LATE IN THE PERIOD.  THE LATTER
FEATURE WOULD BRING DEEP SFC LOW PRES CLOSE TO NEW ENGLAND OR AT
LEAST THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AS IN THE THE NEW 00Z GFS. REGARDLESS
BOTH CAMPS CONTINUE TO PUT THE EASTERN CONUS IN A DEEP TROUGH AT THE
END OF THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. THEREFORE FELT ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE WAS BEST FOR THE WORK WEEK FORECAST.

DETAILS...

* MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN BRINGING ITS COOL POOL
OVER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. CHANCES OF PRECIP HAS INCREASED...ESP ON
MONDAY AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW FROM THE NORTH.
EXPECT SCT DIURNAL SHOWERS AS COLD POOL ALOFT WILL BE SITTING OVER
THE REGION. PRECIP CHANCES ARE SLIGHTLY LOWER ON TUESDAY AS COLD
POOL AND UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGIN TO MOVE OFFSHORE...ESP LATE IN THE
DAY. TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON
MONDAY AND ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY.

* WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

DIGGING TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL PUSH RIDGE OVER THE
REGION. THIS WILL GIVE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND A BREAK IN PRECIP AND
TEMPS NEAR NORMAL. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER
THANKS TO PERSISTENT NORTHERLY FLOW.

* THURSDAY AND BEYOND...LOW CONFIDENCE.

STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. EVERYTHING
IS DEPENDENT ON HOW THE CUT-OFF LOW IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND
DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM WAVES BEHAVES.  REGARDLESS APPEARS DEEP
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP PUTTING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BACK BELOW NORMAL
FOR TEMPS WITH AN INCREASE IN UNSETTLED WEATHER. STILL WATCHING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL LOW ON THURSDAY/FRIDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND EC
HAVE PUSHED THE LOW OUT TO SEA...OR FOCUSED ON THE MID-ATLANTIC
WHERE THE ENSEMBLES KEEP IT NEAR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. STILL A LOT
OF UNCERTAINTY AND WILL NEED TO WAIT UNTIL MODELS CAN GET A BETTER
SAMPLE ON THE SHORTWAVES WHEN THEY COME OFF THE PACIFIC.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR IN SPOTTY
SHOWERS. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING AROUND 20 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS. SEA BREEZES
LIKELY. POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR IN SPOTTY SHOWERS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF. LOW CONFIDENCE IN LATE
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THOUGH WEDNESDAY...

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
IN SCT SHOWERS. SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST
COAST.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS GUST TO 20 KT...WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KT
OFFSHORE. SEAS LINGER NEAR 5 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS THIS
MORNING...THEN SUBSIDE.

TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA. EXPECT NW WINDS TO SHIFT TO NE SUNDAY...BUT REMAIN
BELOW 15 KT. SEA BREEZES LIKELY SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THOUGHT WEDNESDAY...

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO SPIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. HIT OR MISS SHOWERS POSSIBLE
DURING THE DAY. WIND AND SEAS TO REMAINS BELOW SCA ON SUNDAY. POTENT
COLD POOL WILL FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH CREATING STRONG CAA AN
INCREASE WINDS/SEAS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SCA MAY BE NEEDED.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH KEEPING SEAS AND WINDS BELOW SCA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...NONE.
RI...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR RIZ001-003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ250-
     256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...BELK/DUNTEN/EVT
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 251055
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
655 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH
SPOTTY SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES. PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF NEXT
WEEK AS WELL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

700 AM UPDATE...

OVERALL TREND IN THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. WATCHING SCT
ECHOES MOVING DOWN FROM MAINE TO ESSEX COUNTY. NOT EXPECTING MUCH
IN PRECIP BUT DID ADD FLURRIES/SPRINKLES TO THE FORECAST. GUSTY
WINDS ALONG THE COAST WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOUR. EXPECT A QUIET DAY...HOWEVER MAY SEE A SPOT SHOWER IN THE
AFTERNOON. SHORTWAVE MOVING AROUND THE FLOW COULD TRIGGER A FEW
ISO DIURNAL SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE JUST MADE SOME MINOR
TWEAKS TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.

FREEZE WARNING WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 12Z AS MANY SITES ACROSS CT AND
RI HAVE DROPPED BELOW 32F THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

LATEST SATELLITE DATA INDICATES SKIES ARE NOW MOSTLY CLEAR OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MESONET TEMPERATURES ARE STARTING TO REFLECT
THIS AS WELL...WITH MORE THAN A FEW READINGS AROUND FREEZING...OR
LOWER. CURRENT FREEZE WARNINGS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING.

THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL SHIFTS SLIGHTLY FURTHER AWAY FROM OUR
REGION TODAY....BUT STILL CLOSE ENOUGH TO HAVE SOME INFLUENCE ON
OUR WEATHER. THE MAIN CHANGES WILL BE SLIGHTLY LESS CLOUDS...
PARTICULARLY TOWARD SOUTHWEST NEW ENGLAND. THE SURFACE LAYER WILL
BE DRIER...SO MOST ATTEMPTS AT PRECIPITATION SHOULD EVAPORATE ON
THE WAY DOWN. DECENT MIXING...SO WE SHOULD SEE ANOTHER GUSTY DAY
WITH PEAK GUSTS AROUND 20 KT/25 MPH. MORE SUNSHINE SHOULD MEAN
SLIGHTLY HIGHER MAX TEMPERATURES THAN FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
WEAK RIDGE BUILDS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT...PROVIDING
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE 30S...SO MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE 30S
ONCE MORE.

FOR SUNDAY...THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO
OUR REGION. THUS WE WILL BE IN A MORE FAVORABLE POSITION FOR
DIURNAL CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. SO...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE OVER THE
LAST SEVERAL DAYS...SKIES SHOULD START OFF PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY.
THEN CLOUDS DEVELOP ALONG WITH A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
NEAR AND NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE. EXPECTING MAX TEMPERATURES TO BE
MAINLY IN THE 50S. IF A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE WORKS THROUGH THE
CLOUDS ACROSS THE LOWER CT VALLEY...READINGS MAY TOUCH 60 IN A FEW
SPOTS THERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT WEEK
* SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS MONDAY AND TUESDAY
* HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY
* LOW CONFIDENCE ON COASTAL SYSTEM THURS/FRIDAY

OVERVIEW...

STRETCHED CLOSED LOW OVER THE REGION WILL BRING SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
THROUGH THE FLOW MONDAY AND INTO EARLY TUESDAY. NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE APPEARS TO PUSH CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST
KICKING THIS LOW OUT TO SEA BY WEDNESDAY.

BEYOND THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN AS GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SPLIT. OVERALL APPEARS UNSETTLED WEATHER AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUE AS BLOCKING PATTERN PERSIST...SUPPORTED BY
-NAO/-AO/+PNA. BOTH MODELS AGREE IN BREAKING THE RIDGE DOWN FAIRLY
QUICKLY ON WEDNESDAY. AMONG THE OPERATIONAL MODELS THE PAST COUPLE
ECMWF RUNS AND NEW 00Z UKMET SEEM TO FORM ONE CLUSTER THAT IS QUITE
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE DEPTH/CLOSURE OF ENERGY FROM THE GREAT LAKES
INTO MID ATLC...AND STILL WITH VERY DIFFERENT SFC SOLNS...WHILE SOME
RECENT GFS RUNS AND THE 00Z/24 ECMWF WERE MOST PRONOUNCED IN
BRINGING TRAILING NERN PAC AND/OR CANADIAN ENERGY ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST AS A CONCENTRATED UPR LOW LATE IN THE PERIOD.  THE LATTER
FEATURE WOULD BRING DEEP SFC LOW PRES CLOSE TO NEW ENGLAND OR AT
LEAST THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AS IN THE THE NEW 00Z GFS. REGARDLESS
BOTH CAMPS CONTINUE TO PUT THE EASTERN CONUS IN A DEEP TROUGH AT THE
END OF THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. THEREFORE FELT ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE WAS BEST FOR THE WORK WEEK FORECAST.

DETAILS...

* MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN BRINGING ITS COOL POOL
OVER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. CHANCES OF PRECIP HAS INCREASED...ESP ON
MONDAY AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW FROM THE NORTH.
EXPECT SCT DIURNAL SHOWERS AS COLD POOL ALOFT WILL BE SITTING OVER
THE REGION. PRECIP CHANCES ARE SLIGHTLY LOWER ON TUESDAY AS COLD
POOL AND UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGIN TO MOVE OFFSHORE...ESP LATE IN THE
DAY. TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON
MONDAY AND ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY.

* WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

DIGGING TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL PUSH RIDGE OVER THE
REGION. THIS WILL GIVE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND A BREAK IN PRECIP AND
TEMPS NEAR NORMAL. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER
THANKS TO PERSISTENT NORTHERLY FLOW.

* THURSDAY AND BEYOND...LOW CONFIDENCE.

STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. EVERYTHING
IS DEPENDENT ON HOW THE CUT-OFF LOW IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND
DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM WAVES BEHAVES.  REGARDLESS APPEARS DEEP
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP PUTTING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BACK BELOW NORMAL
FOR TEMPS WITH AN INCREASE IN UNSETTLED WEATHER. STILL WATCHING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL LOW ON THURSDAY/FRIDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND EC
HAVE PUSHED THE LOW OUT TO SEA...OR FOCUSED ON THE MID-ATLANTIC
WHERE THE ENSEMBLES KEEP IT NEAR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. STILL A LOT
OF UNCERTAINTY AND WILL NEED TO WAIT UNTIL MODELS CAN GET A BETTER
SAMPLE ON THE SHORTWAVES WHEN THEY COME OFF THE PACIFIC.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR IN SPOTTY
SHOWERS. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING AROUND 20 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS. SEA BREEZES
LIKELY. POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR IN SPOTTY SHOWERS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF. LOW CONFIDENCE IN LATE
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THOUGH WEDNESDAY...

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
IN SCT SHOWERS. SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST
COAST.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS GUST TO 20 KT...WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KT
OFFSHORE. SEAS LINGER NEAR 5 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS THIS
MORNING...THEN SUBSIDE.

TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA. EXPECT NW WINDS TO SHIFT TO NE SUNDAY...BUT REMAIN
BELOW 15 KT. SEA BREEZES LIKELY SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THOUGHT WEDNESDAY...

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO SPIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. HIT OR MISS SHOWERS POSSIBLE
DURING THE DAY. WIND AND SEAS TO REMAINS BELOW SCA ON SUNDAY. POTENT
COLD POOL WILL FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH CREATING STRONG CAA AN
INCREASE WINDS/SEAS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SCA MAY BE NEEDED.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH KEEPING SEAS AND WINDS BELOW SCA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...NONE.
RI...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR RIZ001-003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ250-
     256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...BELK/DUNTEN/EVT
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KALY 251031
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
631 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE STORM IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN IN
THE VICINITY OF THE NORTHEAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP
OUR WEATHER A BIT COOL AND UNSETTLED FOR THE THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AS THE
WEEK PROGRESSES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM EDT...PER THE IR SATELLITE IMAGERY...MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS AS TEMPERATURES HAVE LIKELY ACHIEVED THEIR
LOWS. H2O VAPOR LOOP SHOWS THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE
STATE OF MAINE WITH ANOTHER UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THIS PLACES OUR REGION WITHIN A ZONE OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CONFLUENCE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW OUR REGION TO REMAIN RATHER TRANQUIL
TODAY WITH A NARROW ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW TO EDGE FURTHER INTO
OUR REGION. THE ONLY MINOR EXCEPTION TO THIS WOULD BE SOME
INFLUENCE OF LAKE ONTARIO ALONG WITH UPSLOPE INTO THE DACKS WHERE
A SHOWER OR TWO COULD DEVELOP COINCIDING WITH THE MAX HEATING OF
THE DAY. DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU/SC EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MAINLY INTO
THE 50S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND 40S FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE NEXT ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH AXIS JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES REGION BEGINS TO MIGRATE SOUTHWARD TONIGHT. PER THE
NCEP MODEL SUITE...TIMING OF THIS FEATURE WILL DELAY THE ONSET OF
PRECIP AS WE WILL KEEP MOST OF THE REGION DRY TONIGHT. A MIXTURE
OF CLOUDS AND STARS WILL ALLOW FOR DIVERSE TEMPERATURE RANGES FROM
20S INTO THE TERRAIN AND MID 30S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH AXIS SLIDES FURTHER SOUTHWARD
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR BOTH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVERAGE AND PROBABILITIES FOR SHOWERS. THE SHOWERS WILL INITIALLY
BE CONFINED MAINLY INTO THE TERRAIN ON SUNDAY THEN A MORE COVERAGE
IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY. IN FACT...MONDAY WE WILL SEE WARM
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM THE NORTH AS THE UPPER LOW
COMPLETELY WRAPS IN ATLANTIC MOISTURE. DUE TO THE CLOUD COVERAGE
AND THE INCREASE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS...THIS TOO WILL HAVE AN
IMPACT TO THE TEMPERATURES AS WILL SHAVE OFF A DEGREE OR TWO FROM
MOS GUIDANCE. SOME OF THE HIGHEST TERRAIN WILL LIKELY SEE SOME
RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS.

THIS LAST PIECE OF ENERGY QUICKLY MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
AS DEEPENING CYCLOGENSIS COMMENCES WELL EAST OF THE COASTLINE.
THIS TOO WILL QUICKLY END THE PRECIP FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT. SOME PARTIAL CLEARING WILL COMMENCE BUT DUE TO THE
WARMING THERMAL PROFILES...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A LITTLE MILDER
WITH LOWS GENERALLY RANGING FROM 35-45F.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE SLOW MOVING CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY BE MOVING AWAY
FROM THE REGION BY TUESDAY. ASIDE FROM AN EARLY MORNING RAIN SHOWER
IN FAR EASTERN AREAS...DRY WEATHER WITH A PARTLY SUNNY SKY IS
EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY WITH TEMPS REBOUNDING BACK TOWARDS SEASONAL
VALUES...OF LOW TO MID 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS...AND MID TO UPPER 50S
FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN.

WITH WEAK RIDGING AT 500 HPA BUILDING INTO THE REGION...DRY WEATHER
WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS WILL CONTINUE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WED
NIGHT. HIGHS LOOK MAINLY IN THE 60S...AND LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO MID
40S...WITH SKIES PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR.

THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW THE END OF THE WEEK PLAYS
OUT...GENERALLY DUE TO THE UNPREDICTABLE NATURE OF THE MOVEMENT OF
ADDITIONAL CUTOFF LOWS. WHILE SOME MODELS /SUCH AS THE 00Z GFS/
SUGGEST THAT A CUTOFF LOW WILL DIVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM CANADA
FOR THURS/FRI...OTHER MODELS /SUCH AS THE 00Z ECMWF AND 00Z GEM/
EITHER KEEP THESE SYSTEMS ACROSS CANADA OR OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US.
ALSO...WHILE MOST DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE SEEMED TO BACK OFF THIS
IDEA...THERE IS ALSO THE CHANCE THAT THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN US COULD DEVELOP A SFC COASTAL LOW THAT MOVES UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD FOR THE LATE WEEK OR INTO THE WEEKEND...AS SEEN IN
A FEW MEMBERS OF THE 00Z GEFS.

WITH ALL THIS IN MIND...WILL GO WITH SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS FOR
THURS/FRI FOR RAIN SHOWERS FOR NOW...BUT THIS WILL BE SUBJECT TO
CHANGE DEPENDING ON MODEL TRENDS. WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST TEMPS
NEAR NORMAL LEVELS...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE A COOLER IF MORE CLOUDS/RAIN
SHOWERS OCCUR...ESP WITH THE LOWER HEIGHTS OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVERHEAD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SITUATED JUST NORTHEAST OF THE REGION OVER
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND/SOUTHEASTERN CANADA WITH A PERSISTENT
CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE AROUND THIS SYSTEM.

ALTHOUGH SKIES ARE CURRENTLY CLEAR OVER MUCH OF THE REGION...THE
COOL TEMPS ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PROMOTE
CLOUDS TO DEVELOP DURING DAYTIME HEATING...ESP FOR THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS. AS A RESULT...SCT-BKN CLOUDS OF 5-6 KFT WILL
FORM...ALTHOUGH NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED...AND FLYING CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN VFR.

DURING DAYTIME MIXING...NW WINDS OF AROUND 10 KTS WILL BE IN
PLACE...WITH SOME GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS AT KALB/KPSF POSSIBLE. WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE EVENING HOURS WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...AND LOOK TO BE AROUND 5 KTS FOR TONIGHT FROM A W-NW
DIRECTION. MOST AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SCT-BKN CIGS AT
4-6 KFT THROUGH THE NIGHT THANKS TO PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW IN
PLACE.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM 25 TO 35
PERCENT...

A MAINLY DRY DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION WITH A NORTHERLY WIND
BETWEEN 10 AND 18 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS INTO THE 20 MPH
RANGE. PARTIAL CLOUD COVERAGE TONIGHT WITH A RECOVERY OF RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES BETWEEN 70 AND 90 PERCENT.

THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE IN
THE FORECAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES ELEVATED WITH MINIMUM VALUES ON SUNDAY RANGING FROM 35
TO 45 PERCENT...THEN 40 TO 60 PERCENT ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION. ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION
WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR
HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA /HSA/.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM



000
FXUS61 KALY 251031
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
631 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE STORM IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN IN
THE VICINITY OF THE NORTHEAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP
OUR WEATHER A BIT COOL AND UNSETTLED FOR THE THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AS THE
WEEK PROGRESSES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM EDT...PER THE IR SATELLITE IMAGERY...MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS AS TEMPERATURES HAVE LIKELY ACHIEVED THEIR
LOWS. H2O VAPOR LOOP SHOWS THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE
STATE OF MAINE WITH ANOTHER UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THIS PLACES OUR REGION WITHIN A ZONE OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CONFLUENCE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW OUR REGION TO REMAIN RATHER TRANQUIL
TODAY WITH A NARROW ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW TO EDGE FURTHER INTO
OUR REGION. THE ONLY MINOR EXCEPTION TO THIS WOULD BE SOME
INFLUENCE OF LAKE ONTARIO ALONG WITH UPSLOPE INTO THE DACKS WHERE
A SHOWER OR TWO COULD DEVELOP COINCIDING WITH THE MAX HEATING OF
THE DAY. DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU/SC EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MAINLY INTO
THE 50S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND 40S FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE NEXT ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH AXIS JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES REGION BEGINS TO MIGRATE SOUTHWARD TONIGHT. PER THE
NCEP MODEL SUITE...TIMING OF THIS FEATURE WILL DELAY THE ONSET OF
PRECIP AS WE WILL KEEP MOST OF THE REGION DRY TONIGHT. A MIXTURE
OF CLOUDS AND STARS WILL ALLOW FOR DIVERSE TEMPERATURE RANGES FROM
20S INTO THE TERRAIN AND MID 30S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH AXIS SLIDES FURTHER SOUTHWARD
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR BOTH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVERAGE AND PROBABILITIES FOR SHOWERS. THE SHOWERS WILL INITIALLY
BE CONFINED MAINLY INTO THE TERRAIN ON SUNDAY THEN A MORE COVERAGE
IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY. IN FACT...MONDAY WE WILL SEE WARM
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM THE NORTH AS THE UPPER LOW
COMPLETELY WRAPS IN ATLANTIC MOISTURE. DUE TO THE CLOUD COVERAGE
AND THE INCREASE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS...THIS TOO WILL HAVE AN
IMPACT TO THE TEMPERATURES AS WILL SHAVE OFF A DEGREE OR TWO FROM
MOS GUIDANCE. SOME OF THE HIGHEST TERRAIN WILL LIKELY SEE SOME
RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS.

THIS LAST PIECE OF ENERGY QUICKLY MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
AS DEEPENING CYCLOGENSIS COMMENCES WELL EAST OF THE COASTLINE.
THIS TOO WILL QUICKLY END THE PRECIP FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT. SOME PARTIAL CLEARING WILL COMMENCE BUT DUE TO THE
WARMING THERMAL PROFILES...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A LITTLE MILDER
WITH LOWS GENERALLY RANGING FROM 35-45F.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE SLOW MOVING CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY BE MOVING AWAY
FROM THE REGION BY TUESDAY. ASIDE FROM AN EARLY MORNING RAIN SHOWER
IN FAR EASTERN AREAS...DRY WEATHER WITH A PARTLY SUNNY SKY IS
EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY WITH TEMPS REBOUNDING BACK TOWARDS SEASONAL
VALUES...OF LOW TO MID 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS...AND MID TO UPPER 50S
FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN.

WITH WEAK RIDGING AT 500 HPA BUILDING INTO THE REGION...DRY WEATHER
WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS WILL CONTINUE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WED
NIGHT. HIGHS LOOK MAINLY IN THE 60S...AND LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO MID
40S...WITH SKIES PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR.

THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW THE END OF THE WEEK PLAYS
OUT...GENERALLY DUE TO THE UNPREDICTABLE NATURE OF THE MOVEMENT OF
ADDITIONAL CUTOFF LOWS. WHILE SOME MODELS /SUCH AS THE 00Z GFS/
SUGGEST THAT A CUTOFF LOW WILL DIVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM CANADA
FOR THURS/FRI...OTHER MODELS /SUCH AS THE 00Z ECMWF AND 00Z GEM/
EITHER KEEP THESE SYSTEMS ACROSS CANADA OR OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US.
ALSO...WHILE MOST DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE SEEMED TO BACK OFF THIS
IDEA...THERE IS ALSO THE CHANCE THAT THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN US COULD DEVELOP A SFC COASTAL LOW THAT MOVES UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD FOR THE LATE WEEK OR INTO THE WEEKEND...AS SEEN IN
A FEW MEMBERS OF THE 00Z GEFS.

WITH ALL THIS IN MIND...WILL GO WITH SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS FOR
THURS/FRI FOR RAIN SHOWERS FOR NOW...BUT THIS WILL BE SUBJECT TO
CHANGE DEPENDING ON MODEL TRENDS. WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST TEMPS
NEAR NORMAL LEVELS...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE A COOLER IF MORE CLOUDS/RAIN
SHOWERS OCCUR...ESP WITH THE LOWER HEIGHTS OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVERHEAD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SITUATED JUST NORTHEAST OF THE REGION OVER
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND/SOUTHEASTERN CANADA WITH A PERSISTENT
CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE AROUND THIS SYSTEM.

ALTHOUGH SKIES ARE CURRENTLY CLEAR OVER MUCH OF THE REGION...THE
COOL TEMPS ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PROMOTE
CLOUDS TO DEVELOP DURING DAYTIME HEATING...ESP FOR THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS. AS A RESULT...SCT-BKN CLOUDS OF 5-6 KFT WILL
FORM...ALTHOUGH NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED...AND FLYING CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN VFR.

DURING DAYTIME MIXING...NW WINDS OF AROUND 10 KTS WILL BE IN
PLACE...WITH SOME GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS AT KALB/KPSF POSSIBLE. WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE EVENING HOURS WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...AND LOOK TO BE AROUND 5 KTS FOR TONIGHT FROM A W-NW
DIRECTION. MOST AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SCT-BKN CIGS AT
4-6 KFT THROUGH THE NIGHT THANKS TO PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW IN
PLACE.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM 25 TO 35
PERCENT...

A MAINLY DRY DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION WITH A NORTHERLY WIND
BETWEEN 10 AND 18 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS INTO THE 20 MPH
RANGE. PARTIAL CLOUD COVERAGE TONIGHT WITH A RECOVERY OF RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES BETWEEN 70 AND 90 PERCENT.

THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE IN
THE FORECAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES ELEVATED WITH MINIMUM VALUES ON SUNDAY RANGING FROM 35
TO 45 PERCENT...THEN 40 TO 60 PERCENT ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION. ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION
WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR
HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA /HSA/.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM




000
FXUS61 KALY 251027
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
627 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE STORM IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN IN
THE VICINITY OF THE NORTHEAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP
OUR WEATHER A BIT COOL AND UNSETTLED FOR THE THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AS THE
WEEK PROGRESSES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM EDT...PER THE IR SATELLITE IMAGERY...MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS AS TEMPERATURES HAVE LIKELY ACHIEVED THEIR
LOWS. H2O VAPOR LOOP SHOWS THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE
STATE OF MAINE WITH ANOTHER UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THIS PLACES OUR REGION WITHIN A ZONE OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CONFLUENCE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW OUR REGION TO REMAIN RATHER TRANQUIL
TODAY WITH A NARROW ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW TO EDGE FURTHER INTO
OUR REGION. THE ONLY MINOR EXCEPTION TO THIS WOULD BE SOME
INFLUENCE OF LAKE ONTARIO ALONG WITH UPSLOPE INTO THE DACKS WHERE
A SHOWER OR TWO COULD DEVELOP COINCIDING WITH THE MAX HEATING OF
THE DAY. DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU/SC EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MAINLY INTO
THE 50S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND 40S FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE NEXT ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH AXIS JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES REGION BEGINS TO MIGRATE SOUTHWARD TONIGHT. PER THE
NCEP MODEL SUITE...TIMING OF THIS FEATURE WILL DELAY THE ONSET OF
PRECIP AS WE WILL KEEP MOST OF THE REGION DRY TONIGHT. A MIXTURE
OF CLOUDS AND STARS WILL ALLOW FOR DIVERSE TEMPERATURE RANGES FROM
20S INTO THE TERRAIN AND MID 30S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH AXIS SLIDES FURTHER SOUTHWARD
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR BOTH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVERAGE AND PROBABILITIES FOR SHOWERS. THE SHOWERS WILL INITIALLY
BE CONFINED MAINLY INTO THE TERRAIN ON SUNDAY THEN A MORE COVERAGE
IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY. IN FACT...MONDAY WE WILL SEE WARM
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM THE NORTH AS THE UPPER LOW
COMPLETELY WRAPS IN ATLANTIC MOISTURE. DUE TO THE CLOUD COVERAGE
AND THE INCREASE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS...THIS TOO WILL HAVE AN
IMPACT TO THE TEMPERATURES AS WILL SHAVE OFF A DEGREE OR TWO FROM
MOS GUIDANCE. SOME OF THE HIGHEST TERRAIN WILL LIKELY SEE SOME
RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS.

THIS LAST PIECE OF ENERGY QUICKLY MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
AS DEEPENING CYCLOGENSIS COMMENCES WELL EAST OF THE COASTLINE.
THIS TOO WILL QUICKLY END THE PRECIP FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT. SOME PARTIAL CLEARING WILL COMMENCE BUT DUE TO THE
WARMING THERMAL PROFILES...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A LITTLE MILDER
WITH LOWS GENERALLY RANGING FROM 35-45F.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE SLOW MOVING CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY BE MOVING AWAY
FROM THE REGION BY TUESDAY. ASIDE FROM AN EARLY MORNING RAIN SHOWER
IN FAR EASTERN AREAS...DRY WEATHER WITH A PARTLY SUNNY SKY IS
EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY WITH TEMPS REBOUNDING BACK TOWARDS SEASONAL
VALUES...OF LOW TO MID 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS...AND MID TO UPPER 50S
FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN.

WITH WEAK RIDGING AT 500 HPA BUILDING INTO THE REGION...DRY WEATHER
WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS WILL CONTINUE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WED
NIGHT. HIGHS LOOK MAINLY IN THE 60S...AND LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO MID
40S...WITH SKIES PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR.

THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW THE END OF THE WEEK PLAYS
OUT...GENERALLY DUE TO THE UNPREDICTABLE NATURE OF THE MOVEMENT OF
ADDITIONAL CUTOFF LOWS. WHILE SOME MODELS /SUCH AS THE 00Z GFS/
SUGGEST THAT A CUTOFF LOW WILL DIVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM CANADA
FOR THURS/FRI...OTHER MODELS /SUCH AS THE 00Z ECMWF AND 00Z GEM/
EITHER KEEP THESE SYSTEMS ACROSS CANADA OR OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US.
ALSO...WHILE MOST DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE SEEMED TO BACK OFF THIS
IDEA...THERE IS ALSO THE CHANCE THAT THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN US COULD DEVELOP A SFC COASTAL LOW THAT MOVES UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD FOR THE LATE WEEK OR INTO THE WEEKEND...AS SEEN IN
A FEW MEMBERS OF THE 00Z GEFS.

WITH ALL THIS IN MIND...WILL GO WITH SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS FOR
THURS/FRI FOR RAIN SHOWERS FOR NOW...BUT THIS WILL BE SUBJECT TO
CHANGE DEPENDING ON MODEL TRENDS. WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST TEMPS
NEAR NORMAL LEVELS...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE A COOLER IF MORE CLOUDS/RAIN
SHOWERS OCCUR...ESP WITH THE LOWER HEIGHTS OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVERHEAD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WITH A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED JUST NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION OVER MAINE...CYCLONIC FLOW IS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA. SCT-
BKN CLOUDS AT 4-6 KFT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS OF
KGFL/KALB/KPSF THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ALTHOUGH ENOUGH DRY
AIR HAS WORKED IN TO ALLOW FOR NEARLY CLEAR SKIES AT KPOU. W-NW
WINDS WILL BE AROUND 5-10 KTS FOR ALL SITES...ALTHOUGH THEY MAY
BRIEFLY DROP TO 5 KTS OR LESS FOR THE LATE NIGHT HOURS.

DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT WILL PROMOTE
MORE CLOUDS TO DEVELOP DURING DAYTIME HEATING...ESP FOR THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS. AS A RESULT...SCT-BKN CLOUDS OF 5-6 KFT WILL
CONTINUE...ALTHOUGH NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED...AND FLYING CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN VFR. DURING DAYTIME MIXING...NW WINDS OF AROUND 10 KTS
WILL BE IN PLACE...WITH SOME GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS AT KALB/KPSF
POSSIBLE. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE EVENING HOURS WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING...AND LOOK TO BE AROUND 5 KTS FOR SAT NIGHT
FROM A W-NW DIRECTION. CLOUDS SHOULD START TO DIMINISH FOR SAT
NIGHT AS WELL.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
     MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM 25 TO 35
PERCENT...

A MAINLY DRY DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION WITH A NORTHERLY WIND
BETWEEN 10 AND 18 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS INTO THE 20 MPH
RANGE. PARTIAL CLOUD COVERAGE TONIGHT WITH A RECOVERY OF RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES BETWEEN 70 AND 90 PERCENT.

THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE IN
THE FORECAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES ELEVATED WITH MINIMUM VALUES ON SUNDAY RANGING FROM 35
TO 45 PERCENT...THEN 40 TO 60 PERCENT ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION. ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION
WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR
HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA /HSA/.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY




000
FXUS61 KALY 251027
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
627 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE STORM IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN IN
THE VICINITY OF THE NORTHEAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP
OUR WEATHER A BIT COOL AND UNSETTLED FOR THE THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AS THE
WEEK PROGRESSES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM EDT...PER THE IR SATELLITE IMAGERY...MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS AS TEMPERATURES HAVE LIKELY ACHIEVED THEIR
LOWS. H2O VAPOR LOOP SHOWS THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE
STATE OF MAINE WITH ANOTHER UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THIS PLACES OUR REGION WITHIN A ZONE OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CONFLUENCE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW OUR REGION TO REMAIN RATHER TRANQUIL
TODAY WITH A NARROW ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW TO EDGE FURTHER INTO
OUR REGION. THE ONLY MINOR EXCEPTION TO THIS WOULD BE SOME
INFLUENCE OF LAKE ONTARIO ALONG WITH UPSLOPE INTO THE DACKS WHERE
A SHOWER OR TWO COULD DEVELOP COINCIDING WITH THE MAX HEATING OF
THE DAY. DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU/SC EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MAINLY INTO
THE 50S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND 40S FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE NEXT ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH AXIS JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES REGION BEGINS TO MIGRATE SOUTHWARD TONIGHT. PER THE
NCEP MODEL SUITE...TIMING OF THIS FEATURE WILL DELAY THE ONSET OF
PRECIP AS WE WILL KEEP MOST OF THE REGION DRY TONIGHT. A MIXTURE
OF CLOUDS AND STARS WILL ALLOW FOR DIVERSE TEMPERATURE RANGES FROM
20S INTO THE TERRAIN AND MID 30S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH AXIS SLIDES FURTHER SOUTHWARD
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR BOTH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVERAGE AND PROBABILITIES FOR SHOWERS. THE SHOWERS WILL INITIALLY
BE CONFINED MAINLY INTO THE TERRAIN ON SUNDAY THEN A MORE COVERAGE
IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY. IN FACT...MONDAY WE WILL SEE WARM
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM THE NORTH AS THE UPPER LOW
COMPLETELY WRAPS IN ATLANTIC MOISTURE. DUE TO THE CLOUD COVERAGE
AND THE INCREASE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS...THIS TOO WILL HAVE AN
IMPACT TO THE TEMPERATURES AS WILL SHAVE OFF A DEGREE OR TWO FROM
MOS GUIDANCE. SOME OF THE HIGHEST TERRAIN WILL LIKELY SEE SOME
RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS.

THIS LAST PIECE OF ENERGY QUICKLY MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
AS DEEPENING CYCLOGENSIS COMMENCES WELL EAST OF THE COASTLINE.
THIS TOO WILL QUICKLY END THE PRECIP FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT. SOME PARTIAL CLEARING WILL COMMENCE BUT DUE TO THE
WARMING THERMAL PROFILES...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A LITTLE MILDER
WITH LOWS GENERALLY RANGING FROM 35-45F.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE SLOW MOVING CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY BE MOVING AWAY
FROM THE REGION BY TUESDAY. ASIDE FROM AN EARLY MORNING RAIN SHOWER
IN FAR EASTERN AREAS...DRY WEATHER WITH A PARTLY SUNNY SKY IS
EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY WITH TEMPS REBOUNDING BACK TOWARDS SEASONAL
VALUES...OF LOW TO MID 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS...AND MID TO UPPER 50S
FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN.

WITH WEAK RIDGING AT 500 HPA BUILDING INTO THE REGION...DRY WEATHER
WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS WILL CONTINUE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WED
NIGHT. HIGHS LOOK MAINLY IN THE 60S...AND LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO MID
40S...WITH SKIES PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR.

THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW THE END OF THE WEEK PLAYS
OUT...GENERALLY DUE TO THE UNPREDICTABLE NATURE OF THE MOVEMENT OF
ADDITIONAL CUTOFF LOWS. WHILE SOME MODELS /SUCH AS THE 00Z GFS/
SUGGEST THAT A CUTOFF LOW WILL DIVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM CANADA
FOR THURS/FRI...OTHER MODELS /SUCH AS THE 00Z ECMWF AND 00Z GEM/
EITHER KEEP THESE SYSTEMS ACROSS CANADA OR OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US.
ALSO...WHILE MOST DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE SEEMED TO BACK OFF THIS
IDEA...THERE IS ALSO THE CHANCE THAT THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN US COULD DEVELOP A SFC COASTAL LOW THAT MOVES UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD FOR THE LATE WEEK OR INTO THE WEEKEND...AS SEEN IN
A FEW MEMBERS OF THE 00Z GEFS.

WITH ALL THIS IN MIND...WILL GO WITH SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS FOR
THURS/FRI FOR RAIN SHOWERS FOR NOW...BUT THIS WILL BE SUBJECT TO
CHANGE DEPENDING ON MODEL TRENDS. WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST TEMPS
NEAR NORMAL LEVELS...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE A COOLER IF MORE CLOUDS/RAIN
SHOWERS OCCUR...ESP WITH THE LOWER HEIGHTS OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVERHEAD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WITH A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED JUST NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION OVER MAINE...CYCLONIC FLOW IS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA. SCT-
BKN CLOUDS AT 4-6 KFT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS OF
KGFL/KALB/KPSF THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ALTHOUGH ENOUGH DRY
AIR HAS WORKED IN TO ALLOW FOR NEARLY CLEAR SKIES AT KPOU. W-NW
WINDS WILL BE AROUND 5-10 KTS FOR ALL SITES...ALTHOUGH THEY MAY
BRIEFLY DROP TO 5 KTS OR LESS FOR THE LATE NIGHT HOURS.

DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT WILL PROMOTE
MORE CLOUDS TO DEVELOP DURING DAYTIME HEATING...ESP FOR THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS. AS A RESULT...SCT-BKN CLOUDS OF 5-6 KFT WILL
CONTINUE...ALTHOUGH NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED...AND FLYING CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN VFR. DURING DAYTIME MIXING...NW WINDS OF AROUND 10 KTS
WILL BE IN PLACE...WITH SOME GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS AT KALB/KPSF
POSSIBLE. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE EVENING HOURS WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING...AND LOOK TO BE AROUND 5 KTS FOR SAT NIGHT
FROM A W-NW DIRECTION. CLOUDS SHOULD START TO DIMINISH FOR SAT
NIGHT AS WELL.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
     MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM 25 TO 35
PERCENT...

A MAINLY DRY DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION WITH A NORTHERLY WIND
BETWEEN 10 AND 18 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS INTO THE 20 MPH
RANGE. PARTIAL CLOUD COVERAGE TONIGHT WITH A RECOVERY OF RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES BETWEEN 70 AND 90 PERCENT.

THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE IN
THE FORECAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES ELEVATED WITH MINIMUM VALUES ON SUNDAY RANGING FROM 35
TO 45 PERCENT...THEN 40 TO 60 PERCENT ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION. ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION
WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR
HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA /HSA/.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY




000
FXUS61 KALY 251027
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
627 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE STORM IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN IN
THE VICINITY OF THE NORTHEAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP
OUR WEATHER A BIT COOL AND UNSETTLED FOR THE THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AS THE
WEEK PROGRESSES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM EDT...PER THE IR SATELLITE IMAGERY...MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS AS TEMPERATURES HAVE LIKELY ACHIEVED THEIR
LOWS. H2O VAPOR LOOP SHOWS THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE
STATE OF MAINE WITH ANOTHER UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THIS PLACES OUR REGION WITHIN A ZONE OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CONFLUENCE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW OUR REGION TO REMAIN RATHER TRANQUIL
TODAY WITH A NARROW ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW TO EDGE FURTHER INTO
OUR REGION. THE ONLY MINOR EXCEPTION TO THIS WOULD BE SOME
INFLUENCE OF LAKE ONTARIO ALONG WITH UPSLOPE INTO THE DACKS WHERE
A SHOWER OR TWO COULD DEVELOP COINCIDING WITH THE MAX HEATING OF
THE DAY. DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU/SC EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MAINLY INTO
THE 50S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND 40S FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE NEXT ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH AXIS JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES REGION BEGINS TO MIGRATE SOUTHWARD TONIGHT. PER THE
NCEP MODEL SUITE...TIMING OF THIS FEATURE WILL DELAY THE ONSET OF
PRECIP AS WE WILL KEEP MOST OF THE REGION DRY TONIGHT. A MIXTURE
OF CLOUDS AND STARS WILL ALLOW FOR DIVERSE TEMPERATURE RANGES FROM
20S INTO THE TERRAIN AND MID 30S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH AXIS SLIDES FURTHER SOUTHWARD
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR BOTH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVERAGE AND PROBABILITIES FOR SHOWERS. THE SHOWERS WILL INITIALLY
BE CONFINED MAINLY INTO THE TERRAIN ON SUNDAY THEN A MORE COVERAGE
IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY. IN FACT...MONDAY WE WILL SEE WARM
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM THE NORTH AS THE UPPER LOW
COMPLETELY WRAPS IN ATLANTIC MOISTURE. DUE TO THE CLOUD COVERAGE
AND THE INCREASE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS...THIS TOO WILL HAVE AN
IMPACT TO THE TEMPERATURES AS WILL SHAVE OFF A DEGREE OR TWO FROM
MOS GUIDANCE. SOME OF THE HIGHEST TERRAIN WILL LIKELY SEE SOME
RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS.

THIS LAST PIECE OF ENERGY QUICKLY MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
AS DEEPENING CYCLOGENSIS COMMENCES WELL EAST OF THE COASTLINE.
THIS TOO WILL QUICKLY END THE PRECIP FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT. SOME PARTIAL CLEARING WILL COMMENCE BUT DUE TO THE
WARMING THERMAL PROFILES...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A LITTLE MILDER
WITH LOWS GENERALLY RANGING FROM 35-45F.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE SLOW MOVING CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY BE MOVING AWAY
FROM THE REGION BY TUESDAY. ASIDE FROM AN EARLY MORNING RAIN SHOWER
IN FAR EASTERN AREAS...DRY WEATHER WITH A PARTLY SUNNY SKY IS
EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY WITH TEMPS REBOUNDING BACK TOWARDS SEASONAL
VALUES...OF LOW TO MID 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS...AND MID TO UPPER 50S
FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN.

WITH WEAK RIDGING AT 500 HPA BUILDING INTO THE REGION...DRY WEATHER
WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS WILL CONTINUE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WED
NIGHT. HIGHS LOOK MAINLY IN THE 60S...AND LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO MID
40S...WITH SKIES PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR.

THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW THE END OF THE WEEK PLAYS
OUT...GENERALLY DUE TO THE UNPREDICTABLE NATURE OF THE MOVEMENT OF
ADDITIONAL CUTOFF LOWS. WHILE SOME MODELS /SUCH AS THE 00Z GFS/
SUGGEST THAT A CUTOFF LOW WILL DIVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM CANADA
FOR THURS/FRI...OTHER MODELS /SUCH AS THE 00Z ECMWF AND 00Z GEM/
EITHER KEEP THESE SYSTEMS ACROSS CANADA OR OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US.
ALSO...WHILE MOST DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE SEEMED TO BACK OFF THIS
IDEA...THERE IS ALSO THE CHANCE THAT THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN US COULD DEVELOP A SFC COASTAL LOW THAT MOVES UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD FOR THE LATE WEEK OR INTO THE WEEKEND...AS SEEN IN
A FEW MEMBERS OF THE 00Z GEFS.

WITH ALL THIS IN MIND...WILL GO WITH SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS FOR
THURS/FRI FOR RAIN SHOWERS FOR NOW...BUT THIS WILL BE SUBJECT TO
CHANGE DEPENDING ON MODEL TRENDS. WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST TEMPS
NEAR NORMAL LEVELS...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE A COOLER IF MORE CLOUDS/RAIN
SHOWERS OCCUR...ESP WITH THE LOWER HEIGHTS OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVERHEAD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WITH A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED JUST NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION OVER MAINE...CYCLONIC FLOW IS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA. SCT-
BKN CLOUDS AT 4-6 KFT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS OF
KGFL/KALB/KPSF THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ALTHOUGH ENOUGH DRY
AIR HAS WORKED IN TO ALLOW FOR NEARLY CLEAR SKIES AT KPOU. W-NW
WINDS WILL BE AROUND 5-10 KTS FOR ALL SITES...ALTHOUGH THEY MAY
BRIEFLY DROP TO 5 KTS OR LESS FOR THE LATE NIGHT HOURS.

DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT WILL PROMOTE
MORE CLOUDS TO DEVELOP DURING DAYTIME HEATING...ESP FOR THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS. AS A RESULT...SCT-BKN CLOUDS OF 5-6 KFT WILL
CONTINUE...ALTHOUGH NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED...AND FLYING CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN VFR. DURING DAYTIME MIXING...NW WINDS OF AROUND 10 KTS
WILL BE IN PLACE...WITH SOME GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS AT KALB/KPSF
POSSIBLE. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE EVENING HOURS WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING...AND LOOK TO BE AROUND 5 KTS FOR SAT NIGHT
FROM A W-NW DIRECTION. CLOUDS SHOULD START TO DIMINISH FOR SAT
NIGHT AS WELL.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
     MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM 25 TO 35
PERCENT...

A MAINLY DRY DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION WITH A NORTHERLY WIND
BETWEEN 10 AND 18 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS INTO THE 20 MPH
RANGE. PARTIAL CLOUD COVERAGE TONIGHT WITH A RECOVERY OF RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES BETWEEN 70 AND 90 PERCENT.

THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE IN
THE FORECAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES ELEVATED WITH MINIMUM VALUES ON SUNDAY RANGING FROM 35
TO 45 PERCENT...THEN 40 TO 60 PERCENT ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION. ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION
WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR
HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA /HSA/.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY




000
FXUS61 KALY 251027
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
627 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE STORM IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN IN
THE VICINITY OF THE NORTHEAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP
OUR WEATHER A BIT COOL AND UNSETTLED FOR THE THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AS THE
WEEK PROGRESSES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM EDT...PER THE IR SATELLITE IMAGERY...MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS AS TEMPERATURES HAVE LIKELY ACHIEVED THEIR
LOWS. H2O VAPOR LOOP SHOWS THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE
STATE OF MAINE WITH ANOTHER UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THIS PLACES OUR REGION WITHIN A ZONE OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CONFLUENCE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW OUR REGION TO REMAIN RATHER TRANQUIL
TODAY WITH A NARROW ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW TO EDGE FURTHER INTO
OUR REGION. THE ONLY MINOR EXCEPTION TO THIS WOULD BE SOME
INFLUENCE OF LAKE ONTARIO ALONG WITH UPSLOPE INTO THE DACKS WHERE
A SHOWER OR TWO COULD DEVELOP COINCIDING WITH THE MAX HEATING OF
THE DAY. DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU/SC EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MAINLY INTO
THE 50S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND 40S FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE NEXT ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH AXIS JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES REGION BEGINS TO MIGRATE SOUTHWARD TONIGHT. PER THE
NCEP MODEL SUITE...TIMING OF THIS FEATURE WILL DELAY THE ONSET OF
PRECIP AS WE WILL KEEP MOST OF THE REGION DRY TONIGHT. A MIXTURE
OF CLOUDS AND STARS WILL ALLOW FOR DIVERSE TEMPERATURE RANGES FROM
20S INTO THE TERRAIN AND MID 30S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH AXIS SLIDES FURTHER SOUTHWARD
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR BOTH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVERAGE AND PROBABILITIES FOR SHOWERS. THE SHOWERS WILL INITIALLY
BE CONFINED MAINLY INTO THE TERRAIN ON SUNDAY THEN A MORE COVERAGE
IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY. IN FACT...MONDAY WE WILL SEE WARM
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM THE NORTH AS THE UPPER LOW
COMPLETELY WRAPS IN ATLANTIC MOISTURE. DUE TO THE CLOUD COVERAGE
AND THE INCREASE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS...THIS TOO WILL HAVE AN
IMPACT TO THE TEMPERATURES AS WILL SHAVE OFF A DEGREE OR TWO FROM
MOS GUIDANCE. SOME OF THE HIGHEST TERRAIN WILL LIKELY SEE SOME
RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS.

THIS LAST PIECE OF ENERGY QUICKLY MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
AS DEEPENING CYCLOGENSIS COMMENCES WELL EAST OF THE COASTLINE.
THIS TOO WILL QUICKLY END THE PRECIP FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT. SOME PARTIAL CLEARING WILL COMMENCE BUT DUE TO THE
WARMING THERMAL PROFILES...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A LITTLE MILDER
WITH LOWS GENERALLY RANGING FROM 35-45F.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE SLOW MOVING CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY BE MOVING AWAY
FROM THE REGION BY TUESDAY. ASIDE FROM AN EARLY MORNING RAIN SHOWER
IN FAR EASTERN AREAS...DRY WEATHER WITH A PARTLY SUNNY SKY IS
EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY WITH TEMPS REBOUNDING BACK TOWARDS SEASONAL
VALUES...OF LOW TO MID 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS...AND MID TO UPPER 50S
FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN.

WITH WEAK RIDGING AT 500 HPA BUILDING INTO THE REGION...DRY WEATHER
WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS WILL CONTINUE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WED
NIGHT. HIGHS LOOK MAINLY IN THE 60S...AND LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO MID
40S...WITH SKIES PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR.

THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW THE END OF THE WEEK PLAYS
OUT...GENERALLY DUE TO THE UNPREDICTABLE NATURE OF THE MOVEMENT OF
ADDITIONAL CUTOFF LOWS. WHILE SOME MODELS /SUCH AS THE 00Z GFS/
SUGGEST THAT A CUTOFF LOW WILL DIVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM CANADA
FOR THURS/FRI...OTHER MODELS /SUCH AS THE 00Z ECMWF AND 00Z GEM/
EITHER KEEP THESE SYSTEMS ACROSS CANADA OR OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US.
ALSO...WHILE MOST DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE SEEMED TO BACK OFF THIS
IDEA...THERE IS ALSO THE CHANCE THAT THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN US COULD DEVELOP A SFC COASTAL LOW THAT MOVES UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD FOR THE LATE WEEK OR INTO THE WEEKEND...AS SEEN IN
A FEW MEMBERS OF THE 00Z GEFS.

WITH ALL THIS IN MIND...WILL GO WITH SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS FOR
THURS/FRI FOR RAIN SHOWERS FOR NOW...BUT THIS WILL BE SUBJECT TO
CHANGE DEPENDING ON MODEL TRENDS. WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST TEMPS
NEAR NORMAL LEVELS...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE A COOLER IF MORE CLOUDS/RAIN
SHOWERS OCCUR...ESP WITH THE LOWER HEIGHTS OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVERHEAD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WITH A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED JUST NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION OVER MAINE...CYCLONIC FLOW IS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA. SCT-
BKN CLOUDS AT 4-6 KFT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS OF
KGFL/KALB/KPSF THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ALTHOUGH ENOUGH DRY
AIR HAS WORKED IN TO ALLOW FOR NEARLY CLEAR SKIES AT KPOU. W-NW
WINDS WILL BE AROUND 5-10 KTS FOR ALL SITES...ALTHOUGH THEY MAY
BRIEFLY DROP TO 5 KTS OR LESS FOR THE LATE NIGHT HOURS.

DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT WILL PROMOTE
MORE CLOUDS TO DEVELOP DURING DAYTIME HEATING...ESP FOR THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS. AS A RESULT...SCT-BKN CLOUDS OF 5-6 KFT WILL
CONTINUE...ALTHOUGH NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED...AND FLYING CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN VFR. DURING DAYTIME MIXING...NW WINDS OF AROUND 10 KTS
WILL BE IN PLACE...WITH SOME GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS AT KALB/KPSF
POSSIBLE. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE EVENING HOURS WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING...AND LOOK TO BE AROUND 5 KTS FOR SAT NIGHT
FROM A W-NW DIRECTION. CLOUDS SHOULD START TO DIMINISH FOR SAT
NIGHT AS WELL.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
     MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM 25 TO 35
PERCENT...

A MAINLY DRY DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION WITH A NORTHERLY WIND
BETWEEN 10 AND 18 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS INTO THE 20 MPH
RANGE. PARTIAL CLOUD COVERAGE TONIGHT WITH A RECOVERY OF RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES BETWEEN 70 AND 90 PERCENT.

THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE IN
THE FORECAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES ELEVATED WITH MINIMUM VALUES ON SUNDAY RANGING FROM 35
TO 45 PERCENT...THEN 40 TO 60 PERCENT ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION. ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION
WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR
HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA /HSA/.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY




000
FXUS61 KOKX 251006
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
606 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER
INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FOR THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...FOLLOWED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST TEMPS. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES.

UPR LOW OVER NRN ME/ERN CANADA WILL DRIFT TO JUST S OF NOVA
SCOTIA TODAY. AT THE SAME TIME...LOW PRES WILL TRACK OFF THE NC
COAST AND OUT TO SEA. THIS PUTS THE CWA IN A SUBSIDENT
REGION...AND DESPITE THE COLD POOL ALOFT...SHOULD SUPPRESS PCPN
CHCS. AS A RESULT...MAINTAINED THE DRY FCST FOR TODAY. SUBSIDENCE
BEGINS TO WEAKEN TNGT...BUT INSTABILITY IS ALSO REDUCED WITH THE
LOSS OF SFC HEATING. THIS INSTABILITY INCREASES HOWEVER DURING THE
DAY ON SUN...WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE UPR 50S TO NEAR 60. SOME
WEAK MID LVL LIFT SHOULD HELP PROVIDE A TRIGGER. KEPT POPS
LOW...BUT WENT WITH COVERAGE WORDING. TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD CLOSE
TO GMOS25.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
COOLING BL SUN NGT SO PCPN CHCS DIMINISH. STRONGER UPR SUPPORT ON
MON...SO PCPN COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE GREATER THAN SUN. CHANGED
WORDING TO SCT...WITH POPS AROUND 40 REASONABLE ATTM. CHCS AGAIN
WANE A BIT OVERNIGHT...BUT THERE IS A BETTER CHC AT SHWRS HANGING
IN PAST DARK WITH THE SHRTWV ENERGY MOVING THRU. ANOTHER CHC FOR
SOME ISOLD SHWRS TUE AFTN...ESPECIALLY CT AND PERHAPS LI...WITH
THE H5 LOW OVER 400 MILES E OF MONTAUK. DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST
AND THE UPR FORCING IS WEAK TO NON BY TUE NGT...SO A DRY FCST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A BROAD AREA OF HI PRES BUILDS OVER THE NERN CONUS ON WED. DRY WX
EXPECTED AS A RESULT. INCREASING HEIGHTS WILL ALLOW FOR A
NOTICEABLE WARMING TREND...WITH TEMPS APPROACHING 70 ALONG AND W
OF THE HUDSON. WITH WEAK FLOW...SEA BREEZES WILL LIKELY LIMIT
TEMPS ON LI AND CT. THE GFS BRINGS AN UPR LOW THRU IN THE THU-FRI
PERIOD. THE ECMWF BRINGS THIS UPR LEVEL SYS TO THE NC COAST AND
SPAWNS A 980S LOW OVER THE ATLC. THIS LOW IS PROGGED TO GENERALLY
TRACK TO THE ENE AND THEREFORE NOT IMPACT THE CWA. MADE NO CHANGES
TO POPS FOR THE PERIOD...KEEPING THE LOW CHCS ALREADY IN THE
GRIDS. TEMPS CLOSE TO GMOS25 FOR THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OVER THE NEXT DAY...WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES WILL BE SLOW TO WORK OFFSHORE...WHILE ANOTHER AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND
CAROLINAS. IN BETWEEN...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE AREA.

THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A CONTINUATION OF VFR CONDITIONS WITH W/NW
FLOW IN THE MORNING. THE FLOW BACKS AROUND TO THE W/SW IN THE AFT
DUE TO A TROF DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA. LOCAL SEABREEZES MAY
DEVELOP IF THE FLOW WEAKENS ENOUGH. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS TO
OCCUR WILL BE AT KJFK AND KBDR. WINDS THEN VEER AROUND TO THE N
LATE SAT NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE NW.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WED...
.SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.
.MON-TUE...POSSIBLE MVFR WITH SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT-WED...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A
LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY
WORKS SLOWLY EAST. THERE COULD BE A SHORT PERIOD THIS MORNING WHERE
NW GUSTS COME CLOSE ON THE OCEAN WATERS...AND AGAIN ON TUE AS A NLY
FLOW STRENGTHENS BETWEEN A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MIN RH WILL FALL INTO THE 20S TODAY. WIND GUSTS ARE FCST TO BE IN
THE 15-20 MPH RANGE...WHICH IS BLW RED FLAG CRITERIA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS AND FORECAST LOWS FOR SATURDAY APRIL 25

NEWARK NJ...34/1936......35
BRIDGEPORT CT 32/1956....33
CENTRAL PARK NY 29/1919..36
LAGUARDIA NY 36/1971.....38
KENNEDY NY *37/1971......36
ISLIP NY 36/2012.........31

*AND PREVIOUS YEARS

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ067>070-
     078>081.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ002-004-
     103>105-107.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...DW
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JMC
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KOKX 251006
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
606 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER
INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FOR THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...FOLLOWED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST TEMPS. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES.

UPR LOW OVER NRN ME/ERN CANADA WILL DRIFT TO JUST S OF NOVA
SCOTIA TODAY. AT THE SAME TIME...LOW PRES WILL TRACK OFF THE NC
COAST AND OUT TO SEA. THIS PUTS THE CWA IN A SUBSIDENT
REGION...AND DESPITE THE COLD POOL ALOFT...SHOULD SUPPRESS PCPN
CHCS. AS A RESULT...MAINTAINED THE DRY FCST FOR TODAY. SUBSIDENCE
BEGINS TO WEAKEN TNGT...BUT INSTABILITY IS ALSO REDUCED WITH THE
LOSS OF SFC HEATING. THIS INSTABILITY INCREASES HOWEVER DURING THE
DAY ON SUN...WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE UPR 50S TO NEAR 60. SOME
WEAK MID LVL LIFT SHOULD HELP PROVIDE A TRIGGER. KEPT POPS
LOW...BUT WENT WITH COVERAGE WORDING. TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD CLOSE
TO GMOS25.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
COOLING BL SUN NGT SO PCPN CHCS DIMINISH. STRONGER UPR SUPPORT ON
MON...SO PCPN COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE GREATER THAN SUN. CHANGED
WORDING TO SCT...WITH POPS AROUND 40 REASONABLE ATTM. CHCS AGAIN
WANE A BIT OVERNIGHT...BUT THERE IS A BETTER CHC AT SHWRS HANGING
IN PAST DARK WITH THE SHRTWV ENERGY MOVING THRU. ANOTHER CHC FOR
SOME ISOLD SHWRS TUE AFTN...ESPECIALLY CT AND PERHAPS LI...WITH
THE H5 LOW OVER 400 MILES E OF MONTAUK. DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST
AND THE UPR FORCING IS WEAK TO NON BY TUE NGT...SO A DRY FCST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A BROAD AREA OF HI PRES BUILDS OVER THE NERN CONUS ON WED. DRY WX
EXPECTED AS A RESULT. INCREASING HEIGHTS WILL ALLOW FOR A
NOTICEABLE WARMING TREND...WITH TEMPS APPROACHING 70 ALONG AND W
OF THE HUDSON. WITH WEAK FLOW...SEA BREEZES WILL LIKELY LIMIT
TEMPS ON LI AND CT. THE GFS BRINGS AN UPR LOW THRU IN THE THU-FRI
PERIOD. THE ECMWF BRINGS THIS UPR LEVEL SYS TO THE NC COAST AND
SPAWNS A 980S LOW OVER THE ATLC. THIS LOW IS PROGGED TO GENERALLY
TRACK TO THE ENE AND THEREFORE NOT IMPACT THE CWA. MADE NO CHANGES
TO POPS FOR THE PERIOD...KEEPING THE LOW CHCS ALREADY IN THE
GRIDS. TEMPS CLOSE TO GMOS25 FOR THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OVER THE NEXT DAY...WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES WILL BE SLOW TO WORK OFFSHORE...WHILE ANOTHER AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND
CAROLINAS. IN BETWEEN...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE AREA.

THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A CONTINUATION OF VFR CONDITIONS WITH W/NW
FLOW IN THE MORNING. THE FLOW BACKS AROUND TO THE W/SW IN THE AFT
DUE TO A TROF DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA. LOCAL SEABREEZES MAY
DEVELOP IF THE FLOW WEAKENS ENOUGH. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS TO
OCCUR WILL BE AT KJFK AND KBDR. WINDS THEN VEER AROUND TO THE N
LATE SAT NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE NW.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WED...
.SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.
.MON-TUE...POSSIBLE MVFR WITH SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT-WED...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A
LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY
WORKS SLOWLY EAST. THERE COULD BE A SHORT PERIOD THIS MORNING WHERE
NW GUSTS COME CLOSE ON THE OCEAN WATERS...AND AGAIN ON TUE AS A NLY
FLOW STRENGTHENS BETWEEN A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MIN RH WILL FALL INTO THE 20S TODAY. WIND GUSTS ARE FCST TO BE IN
THE 15-20 MPH RANGE...WHICH IS BLW RED FLAG CRITERIA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS AND FORECAST LOWS FOR SATURDAY APRIL 25

NEWARK NJ...34/1936......35
BRIDGEPORT CT 32/1956....33
CENTRAL PARK NY 29/1919..36
LAGUARDIA NY 36/1971.....38
KENNEDY NY *37/1971......36
ISLIP NY 36/2012.........31

*AND PREVIOUS YEARS

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ067>070-
     078>081.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ002-004-
     103>105-107.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...DW
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JMC
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KOKX 251006
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
606 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER
INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FOR THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...FOLLOWED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST TEMPS. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES.

UPR LOW OVER NRN ME/ERN CANADA WILL DRIFT TO JUST S OF NOVA
SCOTIA TODAY. AT THE SAME TIME...LOW PRES WILL TRACK OFF THE NC
COAST AND OUT TO SEA. THIS PUTS THE CWA IN A SUBSIDENT
REGION...AND DESPITE THE COLD POOL ALOFT...SHOULD SUPPRESS PCPN
CHCS. AS A RESULT...MAINTAINED THE DRY FCST FOR TODAY. SUBSIDENCE
BEGINS TO WEAKEN TNGT...BUT INSTABILITY IS ALSO REDUCED WITH THE
LOSS OF SFC HEATING. THIS INSTABILITY INCREASES HOWEVER DURING THE
DAY ON SUN...WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE UPR 50S TO NEAR 60. SOME
WEAK MID LVL LIFT SHOULD HELP PROVIDE A TRIGGER. KEPT POPS
LOW...BUT WENT WITH COVERAGE WORDING. TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD CLOSE
TO GMOS25.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
COOLING BL SUN NGT SO PCPN CHCS DIMINISH. STRONGER UPR SUPPORT ON
MON...SO PCPN COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE GREATER THAN SUN. CHANGED
WORDING TO SCT...WITH POPS AROUND 40 REASONABLE ATTM. CHCS AGAIN
WANE A BIT OVERNIGHT...BUT THERE IS A BETTER CHC AT SHWRS HANGING
IN PAST DARK WITH THE SHRTWV ENERGY MOVING THRU. ANOTHER CHC FOR
SOME ISOLD SHWRS TUE AFTN...ESPECIALLY CT AND PERHAPS LI...WITH
THE H5 LOW OVER 400 MILES E OF MONTAUK. DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST
AND THE UPR FORCING IS WEAK TO NON BY TUE NGT...SO A DRY FCST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A BROAD AREA OF HI PRES BUILDS OVER THE NERN CONUS ON WED. DRY WX
EXPECTED AS A RESULT. INCREASING HEIGHTS WILL ALLOW FOR A
NOTICEABLE WARMING TREND...WITH TEMPS APPROACHING 70 ALONG AND W
OF THE HUDSON. WITH WEAK FLOW...SEA BREEZES WILL LIKELY LIMIT
TEMPS ON LI AND CT. THE GFS BRINGS AN UPR LOW THRU IN THE THU-FRI
PERIOD. THE ECMWF BRINGS THIS UPR LEVEL SYS TO THE NC COAST AND
SPAWNS A 980S LOW OVER THE ATLC. THIS LOW IS PROGGED TO GENERALLY
TRACK TO THE ENE AND THEREFORE NOT IMPACT THE CWA. MADE NO CHANGES
TO POPS FOR THE PERIOD...KEEPING THE LOW CHCS ALREADY IN THE
GRIDS. TEMPS CLOSE TO GMOS25 FOR THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OVER THE NEXT DAY...WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES WILL BE SLOW TO WORK OFFSHORE...WHILE ANOTHER AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND
CAROLINAS. IN BETWEEN...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE AREA.

THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A CONTINUATION OF VFR CONDITIONS WITH W/NW
FLOW IN THE MORNING. THE FLOW BACKS AROUND TO THE W/SW IN THE AFT
DUE TO A TROF DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA. LOCAL SEABREEZES MAY
DEVELOP IF THE FLOW WEAKENS ENOUGH. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS TO
OCCUR WILL BE AT KJFK AND KBDR. WINDS THEN VEER AROUND TO THE N
LATE SAT NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE NW.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WED...
.SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.
.MON-TUE...POSSIBLE MVFR WITH SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT-WED...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A
LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY
WORKS SLOWLY EAST. THERE COULD BE A SHORT PERIOD THIS MORNING WHERE
NW GUSTS COME CLOSE ON THE OCEAN WATERS...AND AGAIN ON TUE AS A NLY
FLOW STRENGTHENS BETWEEN A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MIN RH WILL FALL INTO THE 20S TODAY. WIND GUSTS ARE FCST TO BE IN
THE 15-20 MPH RANGE...WHICH IS BLW RED FLAG CRITERIA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS AND FORECAST LOWS FOR SATURDAY APRIL 25

NEWARK NJ...34/1936......35
BRIDGEPORT CT 32/1956....33
CENTRAL PARK NY 29/1919..36
LAGUARDIA NY 36/1971.....38
KENNEDY NY *37/1971......36
ISLIP NY 36/2012.........31

*AND PREVIOUS YEARS

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ067>070-
     078>081.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ002-004-
     103>105-107.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...DW
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JMC
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KOKX 251006
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
606 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER
INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FOR THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...FOLLOWED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST TEMPS. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES.

UPR LOW OVER NRN ME/ERN CANADA WILL DRIFT TO JUST S OF NOVA
SCOTIA TODAY. AT THE SAME TIME...LOW PRES WILL TRACK OFF THE NC
COAST AND OUT TO SEA. THIS PUTS THE CWA IN A SUBSIDENT
REGION...AND DESPITE THE COLD POOL ALOFT...SHOULD SUPPRESS PCPN
CHCS. AS A RESULT...MAINTAINED THE DRY FCST FOR TODAY. SUBSIDENCE
BEGINS TO WEAKEN TNGT...BUT INSTABILITY IS ALSO REDUCED WITH THE
LOSS OF SFC HEATING. THIS INSTABILITY INCREASES HOWEVER DURING THE
DAY ON SUN...WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE UPR 50S TO NEAR 60. SOME
WEAK MID LVL LIFT SHOULD HELP PROVIDE A TRIGGER. KEPT POPS
LOW...BUT WENT WITH COVERAGE WORDING. TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD CLOSE
TO GMOS25.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
COOLING BL SUN NGT SO PCPN CHCS DIMINISH. STRONGER UPR SUPPORT ON
MON...SO PCPN COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE GREATER THAN SUN. CHANGED
WORDING TO SCT...WITH POPS AROUND 40 REASONABLE ATTM. CHCS AGAIN
WANE A BIT OVERNIGHT...BUT THERE IS A BETTER CHC AT SHWRS HANGING
IN PAST DARK WITH THE SHRTWV ENERGY MOVING THRU. ANOTHER CHC FOR
SOME ISOLD SHWRS TUE AFTN...ESPECIALLY CT AND PERHAPS LI...WITH
THE H5 LOW OVER 400 MILES E OF MONTAUK. DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST
AND THE UPR FORCING IS WEAK TO NON BY TUE NGT...SO A DRY FCST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A BROAD AREA OF HI PRES BUILDS OVER THE NERN CONUS ON WED. DRY WX
EXPECTED AS A RESULT. INCREASING HEIGHTS WILL ALLOW FOR A
NOTICEABLE WARMING TREND...WITH TEMPS APPROACHING 70 ALONG AND W
OF THE HUDSON. WITH WEAK FLOW...SEA BREEZES WILL LIKELY LIMIT
TEMPS ON LI AND CT. THE GFS BRINGS AN UPR LOW THRU IN THE THU-FRI
PERIOD. THE ECMWF BRINGS THIS UPR LEVEL SYS TO THE NC COAST AND
SPAWNS A 980S LOW OVER THE ATLC. THIS LOW IS PROGGED TO GENERALLY
TRACK TO THE ENE AND THEREFORE NOT IMPACT THE CWA. MADE NO CHANGES
TO POPS FOR THE PERIOD...KEEPING THE LOW CHCS ALREADY IN THE
GRIDS. TEMPS CLOSE TO GMOS25 FOR THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OVER THE NEXT DAY...WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES WILL BE SLOW TO WORK OFFSHORE...WHILE ANOTHER AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND
CAROLINAS. IN BETWEEN...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE AREA.

THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A CONTINUATION OF VFR CONDITIONS WITH W/NW
FLOW IN THE MORNING. THE FLOW BACKS AROUND TO THE W/SW IN THE AFT
DUE TO A TROF DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA. LOCAL SEABREEZES MAY
DEVELOP IF THE FLOW WEAKENS ENOUGH. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS TO
OCCUR WILL BE AT KJFK AND KBDR. WINDS THEN VEER AROUND TO THE N
LATE SAT NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE NW.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WED...
.SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.
.MON-TUE...POSSIBLE MVFR WITH SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT-WED...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A
LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY
WORKS SLOWLY EAST. THERE COULD BE A SHORT PERIOD THIS MORNING WHERE
NW GUSTS COME CLOSE ON THE OCEAN WATERS...AND AGAIN ON TUE AS A NLY
FLOW STRENGTHENS BETWEEN A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MIN RH WILL FALL INTO THE 20S TODAY. WIND GUSTS ARE FCST TO BE IN
THE 15-20 MPH RANGE...WHICH IS BLW RED FLAG CRITERIA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS AND FORECAST LOWS FOR SATURDAY APRIL 25

NEWARK NJ...34/1936......35
BRIDGEPORT CT 32/1956....33
CENTRAL PARK NY 29/1919..36
LAGUARDIA NY 36/1971.....38
KENNEDY NY *37/1971......36
ISLIP NY 36/2012.........31

*AND PREVIOUS YEARS

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ067>070-
     078>081.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ002-004-
     103>105-107.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...DW
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JMC
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KOKX 251006
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
606 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER
INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FOR THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...FOLLOWED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST TEMPS. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES.

UPR LOW OVER NRN ME/ERN CANADA WILL DRIFT TO JUST S OF NOVA
SCOTIA TODAY. AT THE SAME TIME...LOW PRES WILL TRACK OFF THE NC
COAST AND OUT TO SEA. THIS PUTS THE CWA IN A SUBSIDENT
REGION...AND DESPITE THE COLD POOL ALOFT...SHOULD SUPPRESS PCPN
CHCS. AS A RESULT...MAINTAINED THE DRY FCST FOR TODAY. SUBSIDENCE
BEGINS TO WEAKEN TNGT...BUT INSTABILITY IS ALSO REDUCED WITH THE
LOSS OF SFC HEATING. THIS INSTABILITY INCREASES HOWEVER DURING THE
DAY ON SUN...WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE UPR 50S TO NEAR 60. SOME
WEAK MID LVL LIFT SHOULD HELP PROVIDE A TRIGGER. KEPT POPS
LOW...BUT WENT WITH COVERAGE WORDING. TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD CLOSE
TO GMOS25.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
COOLING BL SUN NGT SO PCPN CHCS DIMINISH. STRONGER UPR SUPPORT ON
MON...SO PCPN COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE GREATER THAN SUN. CHANGED
WORDING TO SCT...WITH POPS AROUND 40 REASONABLE ATTM. CHCS AGAIN
WANE A BIT OVERNIGHT...BUT THERE IS A BETTER CHC AT SHWRS HANGING
IN PAST DARK WITH THE SHRTWV ENERGY MOVING THRU. ANOTHER CHC FOR
SOME ISOLD SHWRS TUE AFTN...ESPECIALLY CT AND PERHAPS LI...WITH
THE H5 LOW OVER 400 MILES E OF MONTAUK. DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST
AND THE UPR FORCING IS WEAK TO NON BY TUE NGT...SO A DRY FCST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A BROAD AREA OF HI PRES BUILDS OVER THE NERN CONUS ON WED. DRY WX
EXPECTED AS A RESULT. INCREASING HEIGHTS WILL ALLOW FOR A
NOTICEABLE WARMING TREND...WITH TEMPS APPROACHING 70 ALONG AND W
OF THE HUDSON. WITH WEAK FLOW...SEA BREEZES WILL LIKELY LIMIT
TEMPS ON LI AND CT. THE GFS BRINGS AN UPR LOW THRU IN THE THU-FRI
PERIOD. THE ECMWF BRINGS THIS UPR LEVEL SYS TO THE NC COAST AND
SPAWNS A 980S LOW OVER THE ATLC. THIS LOW IS PROGGED TO GENERALLY
TRACK TO THE ENE AND THEREFORE NOT IMPACT THE CWA. MADE NO CHANGES
TO POPS FOR THE PERIOD...KEEPING THE LOW CHCS ALREADY IN THE
GRIDS. TEMPS CLOSE TO GMOS25 FOR THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OVER THE NEXT DAY...WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES WILL BE SLOW TO WORK OFFSHORE...WHILE ANOTHER AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND
CAROLINAS. IN BETWEEN...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE AREA.

THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A CONTINUATION OF VFR CONDITIONS WITH W/NW
FLOW IN THE MORNING. THE FLOW BACKS AROUND TO THE W/SW IN THE AFT
DUE TO A TROF DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA. LOCAL SEABREEZES MAY
DEVELOP IF THE FLOW WEAKENS ENOUGH. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS TO
OCCUR WILL BE AT KJFK AND KBDR. WINDS THEN VEER AROUND TO THE N
LATE SAT NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE NW.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WED...
.SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.
.MON-TUE...POSSIBLE MVFR WITH SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT-WED...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A
LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY
WORKS SLOWLY EAST. THERE COULD BE A SHORT PERIOD THIS MORNING WHERE
NW GUSTS COME CLOSE ON THE OCEAN WATERS...AND AGAIN ON TUE AS A NLY
FLOW STRENGTHENS BETWEEN A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MIN RH WILL FALL INTO THE 20S TODAY. WIND GUSTS ARE FCST TO BE IN
THE 15-20 MPH RANGE...WHICH IS BLW RED FLAG CRITERIA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS AND FORECAST LOWS FOR SATURDAY APRIL 25

NEWARK NJ...34/1936......35
BRIDGEPORT CT 32/1956....33
CENTRAL PARK NY 29/1919..36
LAGUARDIA NY 36/1971.....38
KENNEDY NY *37/1971......36
ISLIP NY 36/2012.........31

*AND PREVIOUS YEARS

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ067>070-
     078>081.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ002-004-
     103>105-107.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...DW
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JMC
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 250805
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
405 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH
SPOTTY SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES. PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF NEXT
WEEK AS WELL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST SATELLITE DATA INDICATES SKIES ARE NOW MOSTLY CLEAR OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MESONET TEMPERATURES ARE STARTING TO
REFLECT THIS AS WELL...WITH MORE THAN A FEW READINGS AROUND
FREEZING...OR LOWER. CURRENT FREEZE WARNINGS WILL CONTINUE THIS
MORNING.

THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL SHIFTS SLIGHTLY FURTHER AWAY FROM OUR
REGION TODAY....BUT STILL CLOSE ENOUGH TO HAVE SOME INFLUENCE ON
OUR WEATHER. THE MAIN CHANGES WILL BE SLIGHTLY LESS CLOUDS...
PARTICULARLY TOWARD SOUTHWEST NEW ENGLAND. THE SURFACE LAYER WILL
BE DRIER...SO MOST ATTEMPTS AT PRECIPITATION SHOULD EVAPORATE ON
THE WAY DOWN. DECENT MIXING...SO WE SHOULD SEE ANOTHER GUSTY DAY
WITH PEAK GUSTS AROUND 20 KT/25 MPH. MORE SUNSHINE SHOULD MEAN
SLIGHTLY HIGHER MAX TEMPERATURES THAN FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
WEAK RIDGE BUILDS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT...PROVIDING
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE 30S...SO MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE 30S
ONCE MORE.

FOR SUNDAY...THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO
OUR REGION. THUS WE WILL BE IN A MORE FAVORABLE POSITION FOR
DIURNAL CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. SO...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE OVER THE
LAST SEVERAL DAYS...SKIES SHOULD START OFF PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY.
THEN CLOUDS DEVELOP ALONG WITH A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
NEAR AND NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE. EXPECTING MAX TEMPERATURES TO BE
MAINLY IN THE 50S. IF A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE WORKS THROUGH THE
CLOUDS ACROSS THE LOWER CT VALLEY...READINGS MAY TOUCH 60 IN A FEW
SPOTS THERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT WEEK
* SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS MONDAY AND TUESDAY
* HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY
* LOW CONFIDENCE ON COASTAL SYSTEM THURS/FRIDAY

OVERVIEW...

STRETCHED CLOSED LOW OVER THE REGION WILL BRING SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
THROUGH THE FLOW MONDAY AND INTO EARLY TUESDAY. NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE APPEARS TO PUSH CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST
KICKING THIS LOW OUT TO SEA BY WEDNESDAY.

BEYOND THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN AS GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SPLIT. OVERALL APPEARS UNSETTLED WEATHER AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUE AS BLOCKING PATTERN PERSIST...SUPPORTED BY
-NAO/-AO/+PNA. BOTH MODELS AGREE IN BREAKING THE RIDGE DOWN FAIRLY
QUICKLY ON WEDNESDAY. AMONG THE OPERATIONAL MODELS THE PAST COUPLE
ECMWF RUNS AND NEW 00Z UKMET SEEM TO FORM ONE CLUSTER THAT IS QUITE
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE DEPTH/CLOSURE OF ENERGY FROM THE GREAT LAKES
INTO MID ATLC...AND STILL WITH VERY DIFFERENT SFC SOLNS...WHILE SOME
RECENT GFS RUNS AND THE 00Z/24 ECMWF WERE MOST PRONOUNCED IN
BRINGING TRAILING NERN PAC AND/OR CANADIAN ENERGY ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST AS A CONCENTRATED UPR LOW LATE IN THE PERIOD.  THE LATTER
FEATURE WOULD BRING DEEP SFC LOW PRES CLOSE TO NEW ENGLAND OR AT
LEAST THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AS IN THE THE NEW 00Z GFS. REGARDLESS
BOTH CAMPS CONTINUE TO PUT THE EASTERN CONUS IN A DEEP TROUGH AT THE
END OF THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. THEREFORE FELT ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE WAS BEST FOR THE WORK WEEK FORECAST.

DETAILS...

* MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN BRINGING ITS COOL POOL
OVER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. CHANCES OF PRECIP HAS INCREASED...ESP ON
MONDAY AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW FROM THE NORTH.
EXPECT SCT DIURNAL SHOWERS AS COLD POOL ALOFT WILL BE SITTING OVER
THE REGION. PRECIP CHANCES ARE SLIGHTLY LOWER ON TUESDAY AS COLD
POOL AND UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGIN TO MOVE OFFSHORE...ESP LATE IN THE
DAY. TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON
MONDAY AND ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY.

* WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

DIGGING TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL PUSH RIDGE OVER THE
REGION. THIS WILL GIVE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND A BREAK IN PRECIP AND
TEMPS NEAR NORMAL. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER
THANKS TO PERSISTENT NORTHERLY FLOW.

* THURSDAY AND BEYOND...LOW CONFIDENCE.

STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. EVERYTHING
IS DEPENDENT ON HOW THE CUT-OFF LOW IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND
DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM WAVES BEHAVES.  REGARDLESS APPEARS DEEP
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP PUTTING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BACK BELOW NORMAL
FOR TEMPS WITH AN INCREASE IN UNSETTLED WEATHER. STILL WATCHING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL LOW ON THURSDAY/FRIDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND EC
HAVE PUSHED THE LOW OUT TO SEA...OR FOCUSED ON THE MID-ATLANTIC
WHERE THE ENSEMBLES KEEP IT NEAR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. STILL A LOT
OF UNCERTAINTY AND WILL NEED TO WAIT UNTIL MODELS CAN GET A BETTER
SAMPLE ON THE SHORTWAVES WHEN THEY COME OFF THE PACIFIC.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR IN SPOTTY
SHOWERS. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING AROUND 20 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS. SEA BREEZES
LIKELY. POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR IN SPOTTY SHOWERS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THOUGH WEDNESDAY...

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
IN SCT SHOWERS. SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST
COAST.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS GUST TO 20 KT...WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KT
OFFSHORE. SEAS LINGER NEAR 5 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS THIS
MORNING...THEN SUBSIDE.

TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA. EXPECT NW WINDS TO SHIFT TO NE SUNDAY...BUT REMAIN
BELOW 15 KT. SEA BREEZES LIKELY SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THOUGHT WEDNESDAY...

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO SPIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. HIT OR MISS SHOWERS POSSIBLE
DURING THE DAY. WIND AND SEAS TO REMAINS BELOW SCA ON SUNDAY. POTENT
COLD POOL WILL FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH CREATING STRONG CAA AN
INCREASE WINDS/SEAS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SCA MAY BE NEEDED.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH KEEPING SEAS AND WINDS BELOW SCA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...NONE.
RI...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR RIZ001-003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ250-
     256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...BELK/EVT
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 250805
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
405 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH
SPOTTY SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES. PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF NEXT
WEEK AS WELL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST SATELLITE DATA INDICATES SKIES ARE NOW MOSTLY CLEAR OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MESONET TEMPERATURES ARE STARTING TO
REFLECT THIS AS WELL...WITH MORE THAN A FEW READINGS AROUND
FREEZING...OR LOWER. CURRENT FREEZE WARNINGS WILL CONTINUE THIS
MORNING.

THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL SHIFTS SLIGHTLY FURTHER AWAY FROM OUR
REGION TODAY....BUT STILL CLOSE ENOUGH TO HAVE SOME INFLUENCE ON
OUR WEATHER. THE MAIN CHANGES WILL BE SLIGHTLY LESS CLOUDS...
PARTICULARLY TOWARD SOUTHWEST NEW ENGLAND. THE SURFACE LAYER WILL
BE DRIER...SO MOST ATTEMPTS AT PRECIPITATION SHOULD EVAPORATE ON
THE WAY DOWN. DECENT MIXING...SO WE SHOULD SEE ANOTHER GUSTY DAY
WITH PEAK GUSTS AROUND 20 KT/25 MPH. MORE SUNSHINE SHOULD MEAN
SLIGHTLY HIGHER MAX TEMPERATURES THAN FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
WEAK RIDGE BUILDS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT...PROVIDING
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE 30S...SO MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE 30S
ONCE MORE.

FOR SUNDAY...THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO
OUR REGION. THUS WE WILL BE IN A MORE FAVORABLE POSITION FOR
DIURNAL CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. SO...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE OVER THE
LAST SEVERAL DAYS...SKIES SHOULD START OFF PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY.
THEN CLOUDS DEVELOP ALONG WITH A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
NEAR AND NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE. EXPECTING MAX TEMPERATURES TO BE
MAINLY IN THE 50S. IF A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE WORKS THROUGH THE
CLOUDS ACROSS THE LOWER CT VALLEY...READINGS MAY TOUCH 60 IN A FEW
SPOTS THERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT WEEK
* SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS MONDAY AND TUESDAY
* HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY
* LOW CONFIDENCE ON COASTAL SYSTEM THURS/FRIDAY

OVERVIEW...

STRETCHED CLOSED LOW OVER THE REGION WILL BRING SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
THROUGH THE FLOW MONDAY AND INTO EARLY TUESDAY. NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE APPEARS TO PUSH CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST
KICKING THIS LOW OUT TO SEA BY WEDNESDAY.

BEYOND THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN AS GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SPLIT. OVERALL APPEARS UNSETTLED WEATHER AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUE AS BLOCKING PATTERN PERSIST...SUPPORTED BY
-NAO/-AO/+PNA. BOTH MODELS AGREE IN BREAKING THE RIDGE DOWN FAIRLY
QUICKLY ON WEDNESDAY. AMONG THE OPERATIONAL MODELS THE PAST COUPLE
ECMWF RUNS AND NEW 00Z UKMET SEEM TO FORM ONE CLUSTER THAT IS QUITE
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE DEPTH/CLOSURE OF ENERGY FROM THE GREAT LAKES
INTO MID ATLC...AND STILL WITH VERY DIFFERENT SFC SOLNS...WHILE SOME
RECENT GFS RUNS AND THE 00Z/24 ECMWF WERE MOST PRONOUNCED IN
BRINGING TRAILING NERN PAC AND/OR CANADIAN ENERGY ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST AS A CONCENTRATED UPR LOW LATE IN THE PERIOD.  THE LATTER
FEATURE WOULD BRING DEEP SFC LOW PRES CLOSE TO NEW ENGLAND OR AT
LEAST THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AS IN THE THE NEW 00Z GFS. REGARDLESS
BOTH CAMPS CONTINUE TO PUT THE EASTERN CONUS IN A DEEP TROUGH AT THE
END OF THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. THEREFORE FELT ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE WAS BEST FOR THE WORK WEEK FORECAST.

DETAILS...

* MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN BRINGING ITS COOL POOL
OVER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. CHANCES OF PRECIP HAS INCREASED...ESP ON
MONDAY AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW FROM THE NORTH.
EXPECT SCT DIURNAL SHOWERS AS COLD POOL ALOFT WILL BE SITTING OVER
THE REGION. PRECIP CHANCES ARE SLIGHTLY LOWER ON TUESDAY AS COLD
POOL AND UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGIN TO MOVE OFFSHORE...ESP LATE IN THE
DAY. TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON
MONDAY AND ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY.

* WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

DIGGING TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL PUSH RIDGE OVER THE
REGION. THIS WILL GIVE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND A BREAK IN PRECIP AND
TEMPS NEAR NORMAL. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER
THANKS TO PERSISTENT NORTHERLY FLOW.

* THURSDAY AND BEYOND...LOW CONFIDENCE.

STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. EVERYTHING
IS DEPENDENT ON HOW THE CUT-OFF LOW IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND
DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM WAVES BEHAVES.  REGARDLESS APPEARS DEEP
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP PUTTING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BACK BELOW NORMAL
FOR TEMPS WITH AN INCREASE IN UNSETTLED WEATHER. STILL WATCHING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL LOW ON THURSDAY/FRIDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND EC
HAVE PUSHED THE LOW OUT TO SEA...OR FOCUSED ON THE MID-ATLANTIC
WHERE THE ENSEMBLES KEEP IT NEAR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. STILL A LOT
OF UNCERTAINTY AND WILL NEED TO WAIT UNTIL MODELS CAN GET A BETTER
SAMPLE ON THE SHORTWAVES WHEN THEY COME OFF THE PACIFIC.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR IN SPOTTY
SHOWERS. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING AROUND 20 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS. SEA BREEZES
LIKELY. POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR IN SPOTTY SHOWERS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THOUGH WEDNESDAY...

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
IN SCT SHOWERS. SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST
COAST.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS GUST TO 20 KT...WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KT
OFFSHORE. SEAS LINGER NEAR 5 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS THIS
MORNING...THEN SUBSIDE.

TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA. EXPECT NW WINDS TO SHIFT TO NE SUNDAY...BUT REMAIN
BELOW 15 KT. SEA BREEZES LIKELY SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THOUGHT WEDNESDAY...

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO SPIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. HIT OR MISS SHOWERS POSSIBLE
DURING THE DAY. WIND AND SEAS TO REMAINS BELOW SCA ON SUNDAY. POTENT
COLD POOL WILL FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH CREATING STRONG CAA AN
INCREASE WINDS/SEAS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SCA MAY BE NEEDED.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH KEEPING SEAS AND WINDS BELOW SCA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...NONE.
RI...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR RIZ001-003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ250-
     256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...BELK/EVT
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KALY 250752
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
352 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE STORM IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN IN
THE VICINITY OF THE NORTHEAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP
OUR WEATHER A BIT COOL AND UNSETTLED FOR THE THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AS THE
WEEK PROGRESSES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT...PER THE IR SATELLITE IMAGERY...CLOUDS NORTH OF
I90 CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF ERODING AS TEMPERATURES HAVE
RESPONDING WITH A SEVERAL DEGREE DROP IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS THIS
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. H2O VAPOR LOOP SHOWS THE CENTER OF THE
UPPER LOW OVER THE STATE OF MAINE WITH ANOTHER UPPER LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS PLACES OUR REGION WITHIN A ZONE OF MID AND
UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW OUR REGION TO REMAIN
RATHER TRANQUIL TODAY WITH A NARROW ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW TO
EDGE FURTHER INTO OUR REGION. THE ONLY MINOR EXCEPTION TO THIS
WOULD BE SOME INFLUENCE OF LAKE ONTARIO ALONG WITH UPSLOPE INTO
THE DACKS WHERE A SHOWER OR TWO COULD DEVELOP COINCIDING WITH THE
MAX HEATING OF THE DAY. DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU/SC EXPECTED WITH HIGHS
MAINLY INTO THE 50S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND 40S FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

THE NEXT ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH AXIS JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES REGION BEGINS TO MIGRATE SOUTHWARD TONIGHT. PER THE
NCEP MODEL SUITE...TIMING OF THIS FEATURE WILL DELAY THE ONSET OF
PRECIP AS WE WILL KEEP MOST OF THE REGION DRY TONIGHT. A MIXTURE
OF CLOUDS AND STARS WILL ALLOW FOR DIVERSE TEMPERATURE RANGES FROM
20S INTO THE TERRAIN AND MID 30S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH AXIS SLIDES FURTHER SOUTHWARD
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR BOTH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVERAGE AND PROBABILITIES FOR SHOWERS. THE SHOWERS WILL INITIALLY
BE CONFINED MAINLY INTO THE TERRAIN ON SUNDAY THEN A MORE COVERAGE
IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY. IN FACT...MONDAY WE WILL SEE WARM
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM THE NORTH AS THE UPPER LOW
COMPLETELY WRAPS IN ATLANTIC MOISTURE. DUE TO THE CLOUD COVERAGE
AND THE INCREASE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS...THIS TOO WILL HAVE AN
IMPACT TO THE TEMPERATURES AS WILL SHAVE OFF A DEGREE OR TWO FROM
MOS GUIDANCE. SOME OF THE HIGHEST TERRAIN WILL LIKELY SEE SOME
RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS.

THIS LAST PIECE OF ENERGY QUICKLY MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
AS DEEPENING CYCLOGENSIS COMMENCES WELL EAST OF THE COASTLINE.
THIS TOO WILL QUICKLY END THE PRECIP FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT. SOME PARTIAL CLEARING WILL COMMENCE BUT DUE TO THE
WARMING THERMAL PROFILES...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A LITTLE MILDER
WITH LOWS GENERALLY RANGING FROM 35-45F.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE SLOW MOVING CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY BE MOVING AWAY
FROM THE REGION BY TUESDAY. ASIDE FROM AN EARLY MORNING RAIN SHOWER
IN FAR EASTERN AREAS...DRY WEATHER WITH A PARTLY SUNNY SKY IS
EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY WITH TEMPS REBOUNDING BACK TOWARDS SEASONAL
VALUES...OF LOW TO MID 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS...AND MID TO UPPER 50S
FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN.

WITH WEAK RIDGING AT 500 HPA BUILDING INTO THE REGION...DRY WEATHER
WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS WILL CONTINUE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WED
NIGHT. HIGHS LOOK MAINLY IN THE 60S...AND LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO MID
40S...WITH SKIES PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR.

THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW THE END OF THE WEEK PLAYS
OUT...GENERALLY DUE TO THE UNPREDICTABLE NATURE OF THE MOVEMENT OF
ADDITIONAL CUTOFF LOWS. WHILE SOME MODELS /SUCH AS THE 00Z GFS/
SUGGEST THAT A CUTOFF LOW WILL DIVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM CANADA
FOR THURS/FRI...OTHER MODELS /SUCH AS THE 00Z ECMWF AND 00Z GEM/
EITHER KEEP THESE SYSTEMS ACROSS CANADA OR OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US.
ALSO...WHILE MOST DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE SEEMED TO BACK OFF THIS
IDEA...THERE IS ALSO THE CHANCE THAT THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN US COULD DEVELOP A SFC COASTAL LOW THAT MOVES UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD FOR THE LATE WEEK OR INTO THE WEEKEND...AS SEEN IN
A FEW MEMBERS OF THE 00Z GEFS.

WITH ALL THIS IN MIND...WILL GO WITH SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS FOR
THURS/FRI FOR RAIN SHOWERS FOR NOW...BUT THIS WILL BE SUBJECT TO
CHANGE DEPENDING ON MODEL TRENDS. WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST TEMPS
NEAR NORMAL LEVELS...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE A COOLER IF MORE CLOUDS/RAIN
SHOWERS OCCUR...ESP WITH THE LOWER HEIGHTS OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVERHEAD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WITH A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED JUST NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION OVER MAINE...CYCLONIC FLOW IS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA. SCT-
BKN CLOUDS AT 4-6 KFT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS OF
KGFL/KALB/KPSF THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ALTHOUGH ENOUGH DRY
AIR HAS WORKED IN TO ALLOW FOR NEARLY CLEAR SKIES AT KPOU. W-NW
WINDS WILL BE AROUND 5-10 KTS FOR ALL SITES...ALTHOUGH THEY MAY
BRIEFLY DROP TO 5 KTS OR LESS FOR THE LATE NIGHT HOURS.

DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT WILL PROMOTE
MORE CLOUDS TO DEVELOP DURING DAYTIME HEATING...ESP FOR THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS. AS A RESULT...SCT-BKN CLOUDS OF 5-6 KFT WILL
CONTINUE...ALTHOUGH NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED...AND FLYING CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN VFR. DURING DAYTIME MIXING...NW WINDS OF AROUND 10 KTS
WILL BE IN PLACE...WITH SOME GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS AT KALB/KPSF
POSSIBLE. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE EVENING HOURS WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING...AND LOOK TO BE AROUND 5 KTS FOR SAT NIGHT
FROM A W-NW DIRECTION. CLOUDS SHOULD START TO DIMINISH FOR SAT
NIGHT AS WELL.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM 25 TO 35
PERCENT...

A MAINLY DRY DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION WITH A NORTHERLY WIND
BETWEEN 10 AND 18 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS INTO THE 20 MPH
RANGE. PARTIAL CLOUD COVERAGE TONIGHT WITH A RECOVERY OF RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES BETWEEN 70 AND 90 PERCENT.

THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE IN
THE FORECAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES ELEVATED WITH MINIMUM VALUES ON SUNDAY RANGING FROM 35
TO 45 PERCENT...THEN 40 TO 60 PERCENT ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION. ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION
WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR
HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA /HSA/.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 250745
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
345 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH
SPOTTY SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES. PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF NEXT
WEEK AS WELL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...

LATEST SATELLITE DATA INDICATES SKIES ARE NOW MOSTLY CLEAR OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MESONET TEMPERATURES ARE STARTING TO
REFLECT THIS AS WELL...WITH MORE THAN A FEW READINGS AROUND
FREEZING...OR LOWER. CURRENT FREEZE WARNINGS WILL CONTINUE THIS
MORNING.

THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL SHIFTS SLIGHTLY FURTHER AWAY FROM OUR
REGION TODAY....BUT STILL CLOSE ENOUGH TO HAVE SOME INFLUENCE ON
OUR WEATHER. THE MAIN CHANGES WILL BE SLIGHTLY LESS CLOUDS...
PARTICULARLY TOWARD SOUTHWEST NEW ENGLAND. THE SURFACE LAYER WILL
BE DRIER...SO MOST ATTEMPTS AT PRECIPITATION SHOULD EVAPORATE ON
THE WAY DOWN. DECENT MIXING...SO WE SHOULD SEE ANOTHER GUSTY DAY
WITH PEAK GUSTS AROUND 20 KT/25 MPH. MORE SUNSHINE SHOULD MEAN
SLIGHTLY HIGHER MAX TEMPERATURES THAN FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...

WEAK RIDGE BUILDS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT...PROVIDING
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE 30S...SO MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE 30S
ONCE MORE.

FOR SUNDAY...THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO
OUR REGION. THUS WE WILL BE IN A MORE FAVORABLE POSITION FOR
DIURNAL CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. SO...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE OVER THE
LAST SEVERAL DAYS...SKIES SHOULD START OFF PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY.
THEN CLOUDS DEVELOP ALONG WITH A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
NEAR AND NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE. EXPECTING MAX TEMPERATURES TO BE
MAINLY IN THE 50S. IF A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE WORKS THROUGH THE
CLOUDS ACROSS THE LOWER CT VALLEY...READINGS MAY TOUCH 60 IN A FEW
SPOTS THERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
  WEEK
* SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND INTO MID-NEXT WEEK
* LOW CONFIDENCE ON COASTAL SYSTEM THU OR FRI

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL BLOCKING PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE LOWER 48 WITH FEW CHANGES EXPECTED INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. HOWEVER...NOTING SOME SUBTLE CHANGES TOWARD NEXT THU/FRI
WHICH ARE SHOWING UP AT LEAST ON THE LAST COUPLE OF MEDIUM RANGE
OPERATIONAL RUNS OF BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF THAT ARE STARTING TO
SIGNAL THE BREAKING DOWN OF THE UPPER TROUGH PATTERN. THE GEFS
AND EC ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO KEEP SLOW PROGRESSION OF SYSTEMS...SO
STILL QUITE A BIT OF TIMING AND TRACK ISSUES TO CONTEND WITH THIS
FORECAST CYCLE.

NEGATIVE NAO/AO PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE...KEEPING BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS AND PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK AS CUTOFF H5 LOW PRES CONTINUES TO SIT AND SPIN
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN QUEBEC AND THE MARITIMES. MODELS
SIGNALING A STRONGER SHORT WAVE THAT WILL DROP S ACROSS THE REGION
OUT OF EASTERN CANADA IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL DROP ACROSS THE
REGION BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALONG WITH AN ENHANCED
N-NE WIND FLOW. ONCE THIS SHORT WAVE MOVES S...THE UPPER SYSTEM
MAY START TO SHIFT E BUT TIMING IS STILL VERY MUCH IN QUESTION DUE
TO WIDE MODEL SOLUTION SPREAD BEYOND TUESDAY.

ANOTHER QUESTION AT THIS POINT IS THE POTENTIAL COASTAL SYSTEM
THAT WORKS OFF THE SE U.S. COAST LATE WED OR THU. THE 12Z MODEL
RUNS CONTINUE TO KEEP THE BLOCKING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WHICH MAY
ACTUALLY SHUNT THE COASTAL SYSTEM S OF THE REGION. NOTING A RATHER
STRONG SYSTEM ON THE 12Z ECMWF...WHICH TENDS TO DEVELOP AND SLOW
THE SYSTEM AS IT PASSES S OF NEW ENGLAND THU NIGHT OR FRIDAY...
WHILE THE GFS IS A MORE OPEN WAVE BUT STILL PUSHES OFFSHORE. WILL
STILL NEED TO WATCH FUTURE MODEL TRENDS BEFORE WRITING THIS ONE
OFF FOR NOW.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INTO TUESDAY...WHICH SHOWED
GOOD CONSISTENCY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...THEN TRANSITIONED
OVER TO ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.

DETAILS...

* MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

RATHER POTENT H5 SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED BACKDOOR /OF SORTS/
SURFACE REFLECTION ROTATE SW ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME. LOOKS LIKE THE BEST ENERGY AND PRECIP CHANCES WILL
PUSH ACROSS MON NIGHT THROUGH INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS ALSO
SHIFT TO N-NE AND INCREASE. GUSTS UP TO AROUND 25 KT POSSIBLE
MAINLY ALONG E COASTAL AREAS. MAY SEE SOME APPRECIABLE RAINFALL
WITH QPF OF 0.2 TO 0.3 INCHES ALONG THE E COAST AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES WITH THE ONSHORE WIND.

* WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM THAT
MAY MAKE THE TURN UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. HOWEVER...12Z MODEL
TRENDS ARE TENDING TO KEEP THIS SYSTEM TO THE S THANKS TO THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT MAY PUSH THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM OFFSHORE. THIS
THIS WAS A RECENT TREND THOUGH...DID KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING FROM
THU AFTERNOON THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF FRIDAY DUE TO THE MODEL/S
HANDLING OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. TEMPS ARE ALSO
TRYING TO CREEP BACK CLOSER TO SEASONAL LEVELS DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR IN SPOTTY
SHOWERS. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING AROUND 20 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS. SEA BREEZES
LIKELY. POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR IN SPOTTY SHOWERS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE
WEDNESDAY.

SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCT SHOWERS.
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE ALONG E COAST.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE WITH BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. N-NE WINDS INCREASE ESPECIALLY ALONG E COAST.
MAY SEE GUSTS TO 20-25 KT FROM PLYMOUTH COUNTY S TO CAPE COD AND
THE ISLANDS MAINLY MON NIGHT AND TUE.

WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. LIGHT N-NW WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS GUST TO 20 KT...WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KT
OFFSHORE. SEAS LINGER NEAR 5 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS THIS
MORNING...THEN SUBSIDE.

TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA. EXPECT NW WINDS TO SHIFT TO NE SUNDAY...BUT REMAIN
BELOW 15 KT. SEA BREEZES LIKELY SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY...N-NW WINDS INCREASE BUT REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT. SEAS
REMAIN BELOW 5 FT.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...N-NE WINDS INCREASE...GUSTING
TO 25-30 KT. SEAS BUILD UP TO 5-7 FT...HIGHEST ON THE EASTERN
OUTER WATERS DURING TUE. MODERATE PROBABILITY FOR SMALL CRAFT.

WEDNESDAY...WINDS BECOME NW AND DIMINISH. MAY SEE LEFTOVER GUSTS
TO 25 KT EARLY. SEAS WILL REMAIN AOA 5 FT MAINLY ON THE OUTER
WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...NONE.
RI...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR RIZ001-003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ250-
     256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/EVT
NEAR TERM...BELK/EVT
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...BELK/EVT
MARINE...BELK/EVT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 250745
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
345 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH
SPOTTY SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES. PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF NEXT
WEEK AS WELL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...

LATEST SATELLITE DATA INDICATES SKIES ARE NOW MOSTLY CLEAR OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MESONET TEMPERATURES ARE STARTING TO
REFLECT THIS AS WELL...WITH MORE THAN A FEW READINGS AROUND
FREEZING...OR LOWER. CURRENT FREEZE WARNINGS WILL CONTINUE THIS
MORNING.

THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL SHIFTS SLIGHTLY FURTHER AWAY FROM OUR
REGION TODAY....BUT STILL CLOSE ENOUGH TO HAVE SOME INFLUENCE ON
OUR WEATHER. THE MAIN CHANGES WILL BE SLIGHTLY LESS CLOUDS...
PARTICULARLY TOWARD SOUTHWEST NEW ENGLAND. THE SURFACE LAYER WILL
BE DRIER...SO MOST ATTEMPTS AT PRECIPITATION SHOULD EVAPORATE ON
THE WAY DOWN. DECENT MIXING...SO WE SHOULD SEE ANOTHER GUSTY DAY
WITH PEAK GUSTS AROUND 20 KT/25 MPH. MORE SUNSHINE SHOULD MEAN
SLIGHTLY HIGHER MAX TEMPERATURES THAN FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...

WEAK RIDGE BUILDS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT...PROVIDING
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE 30S...SO MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE 30S
ONCE MORE.

FOR SUNDAY...THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO
OUR REGION. THUS WE WILL BE IN A MORE FAVORABLE POSITION FOR
DIURNAL CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. SO...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE OVER THE
LAST SEVERAL DAYS...SKIES SHOULD START OFF PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY.
THEN CLOUDS DEVELOP ALONG WITH A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
NEAR AND NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE. EXPECTING MAX TEMPERATURES TO BE
MAINLY IN THE 50S. IF A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE WORKS THROUGH THE
CLOUDS ACROSS THE LOWER CT VALLEY...READINGS MAY TOUCH 60 IN A FEW
SPOTS THERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
  WEEK
* SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND INTO MID-NEXT WEEK
* LOW CONFIDENCE ON COASTAL SYSTEM THU OR FRI

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL BLOCKING PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE LOWER 48 WITH FEW CHANGES EXPECTED INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. HOWEVER...NOTING SOME SUBTLE CHANGES TOWARD NEXT THU/FRI
WHICH ARE SHOWING UP AT LEAST ON THE LAST COUPLE OF MEDIUM RANGE
OPERATIONAL RUNS OF BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF THAT ARE STARTING TO
SIGNAL THE BREAKING DOWN OF THE UPPER TROUGH PATTERN. THE GEFS
AND EC ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO KEEP SLOW PROGRESSION OF SYSTEMS...SO
STILL QUITE A BIT OF TIMING AND TRACK ISSUES TO CONTEND WITH THIS
FORECAST CYCLE.

NEGATIVE NAO/AO PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE...KEEPING BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS AND PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK AS CUTOFF H5 LOW PRES CONTINUES TO SIT AND SPIN
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN QUEBEC AND THE MARITIMES. MODELS
SIGNALING A STRONGER SHORT WAVE THAT WILL DROP S ACROSS THE REGION
OUT OF EASTERN CANADA IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL DROP ACROSS THE
REGION BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALONG WITH AN ENHANCED
N-NE WIND FLOW. ONCE THIS SHORT WAVE MOVES S...THE UPPER SYSTEM
MAY START TO SHIFT E BUT TIMING IS STILL VERY MUCH IN QUESTION DUE
TO WIDE MODEL SOLUTION SPREAD BEYOND TUESDAY.

ANOTHER QUESTION AT THIS POINT IS THE POTENTIAL COASTAL SYSTEM
THAT WORKS OFF THE SE U.S. COAST LATE WED OR THU. THE 12Z MODEL
RUNS CONTINUE TO KEEP THE BLOCKING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WHICH MAY
ACTUALLY SHUNT THE COASTAL SYSTEM S OF THE REGION. NOTING A RATHER
STRONG SYSTEM ON THE 12Z ECMWF...WHICH TENDS TO DEVELOP AND SLOW
THE SYSTEM AS IT PASSES S OF NEW ENGLAND THU NIGHT OR FRIDAY...
WHILE THE GFS IS A MORE OPEN WAVE BUT STILL PUSHES OFFSHORE. WILL
STILL NEED TO WATCH FUTURE MODEL TRENDS BEFORE WRITING THIS ONE
OFF FOR NOW.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INTO TUESDAY...WHICH SHOWED
GOOD CONSISTENCY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...THEN TRANSITIONED
OVER TO ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.

DETAILS...

* MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

RATHER POTENT H5 SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED BACKDOOR /OF SORTS/
SURFACE REFLECTION ROTATE SW ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME. LOOKS LIKE THE BEST ENERGY AND PRECIP CHANCES WILL
PUSH ACROSS MON NIGHT THROUGH INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS ALSO
SHIFT TO N-NE AND INCREASE. GUSTS UP TO AROUND 25 KT POSSIBLE
MAINLY ALONG E COASTAL AREAS. MAY SEE SOME APPRECIABLE RAINFALL
WITH QPF OF 0.2 TO 0.3 INCHES ALONG THE E COAST AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES WITH THE ONSHORE WIND.

* WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM THAT
MAY MAKE THE TURN UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. HOWEVER...12Z MODEL
TRENDS ARE TENDING TO KEEP THIS SYSTEM TO THE S THANKS TO THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT MAY PUSH THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM OFFSHORE. THIS
THIS WAS A RECENT TREND THOUGH...DID KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING FROM
THU AFTERNOON THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF FRIDAY DUE TO THE MODEL/S
HANDLING OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. TEMPS ARE ALSO
TRYING TO CREEP BACK CLOSER TO SEASONAL LEVELS DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR IN SPOTTY
SHOWERS. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING AROUND 20 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS. SEA BREEZES
LIKELY. POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR IN SPOTTY SHOWERS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE
WEDNESDAY.

SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCT SHOWERS.
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE ALONG E COAST.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE WITH BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. N-NE WINDS INCREASE ESPECIALLY ALONG E COAST.
MAY SEE GUSTS TO 20-25 KT FROM PLYMOUTH COUNTY S TO CAPE COD AND
THE ISLANDS MAINLY MON NIGHT AND TUE.

WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. LIGHT N-NW WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS GUST TO 20 KT...WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KT
OFFSHORE. SEAS LINGER NEAR 5 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS THIS
MORNING...THEN SUBSIDE.

TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA. EXPECT NW WINDS TO SHIFT TO NE SUNDAY...BUT REMAIN
BELOW 15 KT. SEA BREEZES LIKELY SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY...N-NW WINDS INCREASE BUT REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT. SEAS
REMAIN BELOW 5 FT.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...N-NE WINDS INCREASE...GUSTING
TO 25-30 KT. SEAS BUILD UP TO 5-7 FT...HIGHEST ON THE EASTERN
OUTER WATERS DURING TUE. MODERATE PROBABILITY FOR SMALL CRAFT.

WEDNESDAY...WINDS BECOME NW AND DIMINISH. MAY SEE LEFTOVER GUSTS
TO 25 KT EARLY. SEAS WILL REMAIN AOA 5 FT MAINLY ON THE OUTER
WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...NONE.
RI...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR RIZ001-003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ250-
     256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/EVT
NEAR TERM...BELK/EVT
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...BELK/EVT
MARINE...BELK/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 250745
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
345 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH
SPOTTY SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES. PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF NEXT
WEEK AS WELL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...

LATEST SATELLITE DATA INDICATES SKIES ARE NOW MOSTLY CLEAR OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MESONET TEMPERATURES ARE STARTING TO
REFLECT THIS AS WELL...WITH MORE THAN A FEW READINGS AROUND
FREEZING...OR LOWER. CURRENT FREEZE WARNINGS WILL CONTINUE THIS
MORNING.

THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL SHIFTS SLIGHTLY FURTHER AWAY FROM OUR
REGION TODAY....BUT STILL CLOSE ENOUGH TO HAVE SOME INFLUENCE ON
OUR WEATHER. THE MAIN CHANGES WILL BE SLIGHTLY LESS CLOUDS...
PARTICULARLY TOWARD SOUTHWEST NEW ENGLAND. THE SURFACE LAYER WILL
BE DRIER...SO MOST ATTEMPTS AT PRECIPITATION SHOULD EVAPORATE ON
THE WAY DOWN. DECENT MIXING...SO WE SHOULD SEE ANOTHER GUSTY DAY
WITH PEAK GUSTS AROUND 20 KT/25 MPH. MORE SUNSHINE SHOULD MEAN
SLIGHTLY HIGHER MAX TEMPERATURES THAN FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...

WEAK RIDGE BUILDS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT...PROVIDING
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE 30S...SO MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE 30S
ONCE MORE.

FOR SUNDAY...THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO
OUR REGION. THUS WE WILL BE IN A MORE FAVORABLE POSITION FOR
DIURNAL CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. SO...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE OVER THE
LAST SEVERAL DAYS...SKIES SHOULD START OFF PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY.
THEN CLOUDS DEVELOP ALONG WITH A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
NEAR AND NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE. EXPECTING MAX TEMPERATURES TO BE
MAINLY IN THE 50S. IF A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE WORKS THROUGH THE
CLOUDS ACROSS THE LOWER CT VALLEY...READINGS MAY TOUCH 60 IN A FEW
SPOTS THERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
  WEEK
* SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND INTO MID-NEXT WEEK
* LOW CONFIDENCE ON COASTAL SYSTEM THU OR FRI

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL BLOCKING PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE LOWER 48 WITH FEW CHANGES EXPECTED INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. HOWEVER...NOTING SOME SUBTLE CHANGES TOWARD NEXT THU/FRI
WHICH ARE SHOWING UP AT LEAST ON THE LAST COUPLE OF MEDIUM RANGE
OPERATIONAL RUNS OF BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF THAT ARE STARTING TO
SIGNAL THE BREAKING DOWN OF THE UPPER TROUGH PATTERN. THE GEFS
AND EC ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO KEEP SLOW PROGRESSION OF SYSTEMS...SO
STILL QUITE A BIT OF TIMING AND TRACK ISSUES TO CONTEND WITH THIS
FORECAST CYCLE.

NEGATIVE NAO/AO PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE...KEEPING BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS AND PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK AS CUTOFF H5 LOW PRES CONTINUES TO SIT AND SPIN
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN QUEBEC AND THE MARITIMES. MODELS
SIGNALING A STRONGER SHORT WAVE THAT WILL DROP S ACROSS THE REGION
OUT OF EASTERN CANADA IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL DROP ACROSS THE
REGION BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALONG WITH AN ENHANCED
N-NE WIND FLOW. ONCE THIS SHORT WAVE MOVES S...THE UPPER SYSTEM
MAY START TO SHIFT E BUT TIMING IS STILL VERY MUCH IN QUESTION DUE
TO WIDE MODEL SOLUTION SPREAD BEYOND TUESDAY.

ANOTHER QUESTION AT THIS POINT IS THE POTENTIAL COASTAL SYSTEM
THAT WORKS OFF THE SE U.S. COAST LATE WED OR THU. THE 12Z MODEL
RUNS CONTINUE TO KEEP THE BLOCKING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WHICH MAY
ACTUALLY SHUNT THE COASTAL SYSTEM S OF THE REGION. NOTING A RATHER
STRONG SYSTEM ON THE 12Z ECMWF...WHICH TENDS TO DEVELOP AND SLOW
THE SYSTEM AS IT PASSES S OF NEW ENGLAND THU NIGHT OR FRIDAY...
WHILE THE GFS IS A MORE OPEN WAVE BUT STILL PUSHES OFFSHORE. WILL
STILL NEED TO WATCH FUTURE MODEL TRENDS BEFORE WRITING THIS ONE
OFF FOR NOW.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INTO TUESDAY...WHICH SHOWED
GOOD CONSISTENCY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...THEN TRANSITIONED
OVER TO ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.

DETAILS...

* MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

RATHER POTENT H5 SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED BACKDOOR /OF SORTS/
SURFACE REFLECTION ROTATE SW ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME. LOOKS LIKE THE BEST ENERGY AND PRECIP CHANCES WILL
PUSH ACROSS MON NIGHT THROUGH INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS ALSO
SHIFT TO N-NE AND INCREASE. GUSTS UP TO AROUND 25 KT POSSIBLE
MAINLY ALONG E COASTAL AREAS. MAY SEE SOME APPRECIABLE RAINFALL
WITH QPF OF 0.2 TO 0.3 INCHES ALONG THE E COAST AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES WITH THE ONSHORE WIND.

* WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM THAT
MAY MAKE THE TURN UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. HOWEVER...12Z MODEL
TRENDS ARE TENDING TO KEEP THIS SYSTEM TO THE S THANKS TO THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT MAY PUSH THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM OFFSHORE. THIS
THIS WAS A RECENT TREND THOUGH...DID KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING FROM
THU AFTERNOON THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF FRIDAY DUE TO THE MODEL/S
HANDLING OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. TEMPS ARE ALSO
TRYING TO CREEP BACK CLOSER TO SEASONAL LEVELS DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR IN SPOTTY
SHOWERS. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING AROUND 20 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS. SEA BREEZES
LIKELY. POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR IN SPOTTY SHOWERS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE
WEDNESDAY.

SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCT SHOWERS.
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE ALONG E COAST.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE WITH BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. N-NE WINDS INCREASE ESPECIALLY ALONG E COAST.
MAY SEE GUSTS TO 20-25 KT FROM PLYMOUTH COUNTY S TO CAPE COD AND
THE ISLANDS MAINLY MON NIGHT AND TUE.

WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. LIGHT N-NW WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS GUST TO 20 KT...WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KT
OFFSHORE. SEAS LINGER NEAR 5 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS THIS
MORNING...THEN SUBSIDE.

TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA. EXPECT NW WINDS TO SHIFT TO NE SUNDAY...BUT REMAIN
BELOW 15 KT. SEA BREEZES LIKELY SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY...N-NW WINDS INCREASE BUT REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT. SEAS
REMAIN BELOW 5 FT.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...N-NE WINDS INCREASE...GUSTING
TO 25-30 KT. SEAS BUILD UP TO 5-7 FT...HIGHEST ON THE EASTERN
OUTER WATERS DURING TUE. MODERATE PROBABILITY FOR SMALL CRAFT.

WEDNESDAY...WINDS BECOME NW AND DIMINISH. MAY SEE LEFTOVER GUSTS
TO 25 KT EARLY. SEAS WILL REMAIN AOA 5 FT MAINLY ON THE OUTER
WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...NONE.
RI...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR RIZ001-003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ250-
     256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/EVT
NEAR TERM...BELK/EVT
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...BELK/EVT
MARINE...BELK/EVT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 250745
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
345 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH
SPOTTY SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES. PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF NEXT
WEEK AS WELL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...

LATEST SATELLITE DATA INDICATES SKIES ARE NOW MOSTLY CLEAR OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MESONET TEMPERATURES ARE STARTING TO
REFLECT THIS AS WELL...WITH MORE THAN A FEW READINGS AROUND
FREEZING...OR LOWER. CURRENT FREEZE WARNINGS WILL CONTINUE THIS
MORNING.

THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL SHIFTS SLIGHTLY FURTHER AWAY FROM OUR
REGION TODAY....BUT STILL CLOSE ENOUGH TO HAVE SOME INFLUENCE ON
OUR WEATHER. THE MAIN CHANGES WILL BE SLIGHTLY LESS CLOUDS...
PARTICULARLY TOWARD SOUTHWEST NEW ENGLAND. THE SURFACE LAYER WILL
BE DRIER...SO MOST ATTEMPTS AT PRECIPITATION SHOULD EVAPORATE ON
THE WAY DOWN. DECENT MIXING...SO WE SHOULD SEE ANOTHER GUSTY DAY
WITH PEAK GUSTS AROUND 20 KT/25 MPH. MORE SUNSHINE SHOULD MEAN
SLIGHTLY HIGHER MAX TEMPERATURES THAN FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...

WEAK RIDGE BUILDS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT...PROVIDING
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE 30S...SO MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE 30S
ONCE MORE.

FOR SUNDAY...THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO
OUR REGION. THUS WE WILL BE IN A MORE FAVORABLE POSITION FOR
DIURNAL CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. SO...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE OVER THE
LAST SEVERAL DAYS...SKIES SHOULD START OFF PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY.
THEN CLOUDS DEVELOP ALONG WITH A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
NEAR AND NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE. EXPECTING MAX TEMPERATURES TO BE
MAINLY IN THE 50S. IF A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE WORKS THROUGH THE
CLOUDS ACROSS THE LOWER CT VALLEY...READINGS MAY TOUCH 60 IN A FEW
SPOTS THERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
  WEEK
* SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND INTO MID-NEXT WEEK
* LOW CONFIDENCE ON COASTAL SYSTEM THU OR FRI

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL BLOCKING PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE LOWER 48 WITH FEW CHANGES EXPECTED INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. HOWEVER...NOTING SOME SUBTLE CHANGES TOWARD NEXT THU/FRI
WHICH ARE SHOWING UP AT LEAST ON THE LAST COUPLE OF MEDIUM RANGE
OPERATIONAL RUNS OF BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF THAT ARE STARTING TO
SIGNAL THE BREAKING DOWN OF THE UPPER TROUGH PATTERN. THE GEFS
AND EC ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO KEEP SLOW PROGRESSION OF SYSTEMS...SO
STILL QUITE A BIT OF TIMING AND TRACK ISSUES TO CONTEND WITH THIS
FORECAST CYCLE.

NEGATIVE NAO/AO PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE...KEEPING BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS AND PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK AS CUTOFF H5 LOW PRES CONTINUES TO SIT AND SPIN
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN QUEBEC AND THE MARITIMES. MODELS
SIGNALING A STRONGER SHORT WAVE THAT WILL DROP S ACROSS THE REGION
OUT OF EASTERN CANADA IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL DROP ACROSS THE
REGION BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALONG WITH AN ENHANCED
N-NE WIND FLOW. ONCE THIS SHORT WAVE MOVES S...THE UPPER SYSTEM
MAY START TO SHIFT E BUT TIMING IS STILL VERY MUCH IN QUESTION DUE
TO WIDE MODEL SOLUTION SPREAD BEYOND TUESDAY.

ANOTHER QUESTION AT THIS POINT IS THE POTENTIAL COASTAL SYSTEM
THAT WORKS OFF THE SE U.S. COAST LATE WED OR THU. THE 12Z MODEL
RUNS CONTINUE TO KEEP THE BLOCKING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WHICH MAY
ACTUALLY SHUNT THE COASTAL SYSTEM S OF THE REGION. NOTING A RATHER
STRONG SYSTEM ON THE 12Z ECMWF...WHICH TENDS TO DEVELOP AND SLOW
THE SYSTEM AS IT PASSES S OF NEW ENGLAND THU NIGHT OR FRIDAY...
WHILE THE GFS IS A MORE OPEN WAVE BUT STILL PUSHES OFFSHORE. WILL
STILL NEED TO WATCH FUTURE MODEL TRENDS BEFORE WRITING THIS ONE
OFF FOR NOW.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INTO TUESDAY...WHICH SHOWED
GOOD CONSISTENCY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...THEN TRANSITIONED
OVER TO ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.

DETAILS...

* MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

RATHER POTENT H5 SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED BACKDOOR /OF SORTS/
SURFACE REFLECTION ROTATE SW ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME. LOOKS LIKE THE BEST ENERGY AND PRECIP CHANCES WILL
PUSH ACROSS MON NIGHT THROUGH INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS ALSO
SHIFT TO N-NE AND INCREASE. GUSTS UP TO AROUND 25 KT POSSIBLE
MAINLY ALONG E COASTAL AREAS. MAY SEE SOME APPRECIABLE RAINFALL
WITH QPF OF 0.2 TO 0.3 INCHES ALONG THE E COAST AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES WITH THE ONSHORE WIND.

* WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM THAT
MAY MAKE THE TURN UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. HOWEVER...12Z MODEL
TRENDS ARE TENDING TO KEEP THIS SYSTEM TO THE S THANKS TO THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT MAY PUSH THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM OFFSHORE. THIS
THIS WAS A RECENT TREND THOUGH...DID KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING FROM
THU AFTERNOON THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF FRIDAY DUE TO THE MODEL/S
HANDLING OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. TEMPS ARE ALSO
TRYING TO CREEP BACK CLOSER TO SEASONAL LEVELS DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR IN SPOTTY
SHOWERS. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING AROUND 20 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS. SEA BREEZES
LIKELY. POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR IN SPOTTY SHOWERS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE
WEDNESDAY.

SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCT SHOWERS.
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE ALONG E COAST.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE WITH BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. N-NE WINDS INCREASE ESPECIALLY ALONG E COAST.
MAY SEE GUSTS TO 20-25 KT FROM PLYMOUTH COUNTY S TO CAPE COD AND
THE ISLANDS MAINLY MON NIGHT AND TUE.

WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. LIGHT N-NW WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS GUST TO 20 KT...WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KT
OFFSHORE. SEAS LINGER NEAR 5 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS THIS
MORNING...THEN SUBSIDE.

TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA. EXPECT NW WINDS TO SHIFT TO NE SUNDAY...BUT REMAIN
BELOW 15 KT. SEA BREEZES LIKELY SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY...N-NW WINDS INCREASE BUT REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT. SEAS
REMAIN BELOW 5 FT.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...N-NE WINDS INCREASE...GUSTING
TO 25-30 KT. SEAS BUILD UP TO 5-7 FT...HIGHEST ON THE EASTERN
OUTER WATERS DURING TUE. MODERATE PROBABILITY FOR SMALL CRAFT.

WEDNESDAY...WINDS BECOME NW AND DIMINISH. MAY SEE LEFTOVER GUSTS
TO 25 KT EARLY. SEAS WILL REMAIN AOA 5 FT MAINLY ON THE OUTER
WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...NONE.
RI...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR RIZ001-003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ250-
     256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/EVT
NEAR TERM...BELK/EVT
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...BELK/EVT
MARINE...BELK/EVT




000
FXUS61 KOKX 250743
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
343 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER
INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FOR THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...FOLLOWED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPR LOW OVER NRN ME/ERN CANADA WILL DRIFT TO JUST S OF NOVA SCOTIA
TODAY. AT THE SAME TIME...LOW PRES WILL TRACK OFF THE NC COAST AND
OUT TO SEA. THIS PUTS THE CWA IN A SUBSIDENT REGION...AND DESPITE
THE COLD POOL ALOFT...SHOULD SUPPRESS PCPN CHCS. AS A
RESULT...MAINTAINED THE DRY FCST FOR TODAY. SUBSIDENCE BEGINS TO
WEAKEN TNGT...BUT INSTABILITY IS ALSO REDUCED WITH THE LOSS OF SFC
HEATING. THIS INSTABILITY INCREASES HOWEVER DURING THE DAY ON
SUN...WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE UPR 50S TO NEAR 60. SOME WEAK
MID LVL LIFT SHOULD HELP PROVIDE A TRIGGER. KEPT POPS LOW...BUT
WENT WITH COVERAGE WORDING. TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD CLOSE TO
GMOS25.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
COOLING BL SUN NGT SO PCPN CHCS DIMINISH. STRONGER UPR SUPPORT ON
MON...SO PCPN COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE GREATER THAN SUN. CHANGED
WORDING TO SCT...WITH POPS AROUND 40 REASONABLE ATTM. CHCS AGAIN
WANE A BIT OVERNIGHT...BUT THERE IS A BETTER CHC AT SHWRS HANGING
IN PAST DARK WITH THE SHRTWV ENERGY MOVING THRU. ANOTHER CHC FOR
SOME ISOLD SHWRS TUE AFTN...ESPECIALLY CT AND PERHAPS LI...WITH
THE H5 LOW OVER 400 MILES E OF MONTAUK. DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST
AND THE UPR FORCING IS WEAK TO NON BY TUE NGT...SO A DRY FCST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A BROAD AREA OF HI PRES BUILDS OVER THE NERN CONUS ON WED. DRY WX
EXPECTED AS A RESULT. INCREASING HEIGHTS WILL ALLOW FOR A
NOTICEABLE WARMING TREND...WITH TEMPS APPROACHING 70 ALONG AND W
OF THE HUDSON. WITH WEAK FLOW...SEA BREEZES WILL LIKELY LIMIT
TEMPS ON LI AND CT. THE GFS BRINGS AN UPR LOW THRU IN THE THU-FRI
PERIOD. THE ECMWF BRINGS THIS UPR LEVEL SYS TO THE NC COAST AND
SPAWNS A 980S LOW OVER THE ATLC. THIS LOW IS PROGGED TO GENERALLY
TRACK TO THE ENE AND THEREFORE NOT IMPACT THE CWA. MADE NO CHANGES
TO POPS FOR THE PERIOD...KEEPING THE LOW CHCS ALREADY IN THE
GRIDS. TEMPS CLOSE TO GMOS25 FOR THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OVER THE NEXT DAY...WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES WILL BE SLOW TO WORK OFFSHORE...WHILE ANOTHER AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND
CAROLINAS. IN BETWEEN...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE AREA.

THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A CONTINUATION OF VFR CONDITIONS WITH W/NW
FLOW IN THE MORNING. THE FLOW BACKS AROUND TO THE W/SW IN THE AFT
DUE TO A TROF DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA. LOCAL SEABREEZES MAY
DEVELOP IF THE FLOW WEAKENS ENOUGH. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS TO
OCCUR WILL BE AT KJFK AND KBDR. WINDS THEN VEER AROUND TO THE N
LATE SAT NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE NW.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WED...
.SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.
.MON-TUE...POSSIBLE MVFR WITH SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT-WED...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A
LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY
WORKS SLOWLY EAST. THERE COULD BE A SHORT PERIOD THIS MORNING WHERE
NW GUSTS COME CLOSE ON THE OCEAN WATERS...AND AGAIN ON TUE AS A NLY
FLOW STRENGTHENS BETWEEN A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MIN RH WILL FALL INTO THE 20S TODAY. WIND GUSTS ARE FCST TO BE IN
THE 15-20 MPH RANGE...WHICH IS BLW RED FLAG CRITERIA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS AND FORECAST LOWS FOR SATURDAY APRIL 25

NEWARK NJ...34/1936......35
BRIDGEPORT CT 32/1956....33
CENTRAL PARK NY 29/1919..36
LAGUARDIA NY 36/1971.....38
KENNEDY NY *37/1971......36
ISLIP NY 36/2012.........31

*AND PREVIOUS YEARS

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ067>070-
     078>081.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ002-004-
     103>105-107.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...DW
FIRE WEATHER...JMC
HYDROLOGY...JMC
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KOKX 250743
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
343 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER
INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FOR THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...FOLLOWED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPR LOW OVER NRN ME/ERN CANADA WILL DRIFT TO JUST S OF NOVA SCOTIA
TODAY. AT THE SAME TIME...LOW PRES WILL TRACK OFF THE NC COAST AND
OUT TO SEA. THIS PUTS THE CWA IN A SUBSIDENT REGION...AND DESPITE
THE COLD POOL ALOFT...SHOULD SUPPRESS PCPN CHCS. AS A
RESULT...MAINTAINED THE DRY FCST FOR TODAY. SUBSIDENCE BEGINS TO
WEAKEN TNGT...BUT INSTABILITY IS ALSO REDUCED WITH THE LOSS OF SFC
HEATING. THIS INSTABILITY INCREASES HOWEVER DURING THE DAY ON
SUN...WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE UPR 50S TO NEAR 60. SOME WEAK
MID LVL LIFT SHOULD HELP PROVIDE A TRIGGER. KEPT POPS LOW...BUT
WENT WITH COVERAGE WORDING. TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD CLOSE TO
GMOS25.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
COOLING BL SUN NGT SO PCPN CHCS DIMINISH. STRONGER UPR SUPPORT ON
MON...SO PCPN COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE GREATER THAN SUN. CHANGED
WORDING TO SCT...WITH POPS AROUND 40 REASONABLE ATTM. CHCS AGAIN
WANE A BIT OVERNIGHT...BUT THERE IS A BETTER CHC AT SHWRS HANGING
IN PAST DARK WITH THE SHRTWV ENERGY MOVING THRU. ANOTHER CHC FOR
SOME ISOLD SHWRS TUE AFTN...ESPECIALLY CT AND PERHAPS LI...WITH
THE H5 LOW OVER 400 MILES E OF MONTAUK. DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST
AND THE UPR FORCING IS WEAK TO NON BY TUE NGT...SO A DRY FCST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A BROAD AREA OF HI PRES BUILDS OVER THE NERN CONUS ON WED. DRY WX
EXPECTED AS A RESULT. INCREASING HEIGHTS WILL ALLOW FOR A
NOTICEABLE WARMING TREND...WITH TEMPS APPROACHING 70 ALONG AND W
OF THE HUDSON. WITH WEAK FLOW...SEA BREEZES WILL LIKELY LIMIT
TEMPS ON LI AND CT. THE GFS BRINGS AN UPR LOW THRU IN THE THU-FRI
PERIOD. THE ECMWF BRINGS THIS UPR LEVEL SYS TO THE NC COAST AND
SPAWNS A 980S LOW OVER THE ATLC. THIS LOW IS PROGGED TO GENERALLY
TRACK TO THE ENE AND THEREFORE NOT IMPACT THE CWA. MADE NO CHANGES
TO POPS FOR THE PERIOD...KEEPING THE LOW CHCS ALREADY IN THE
GRIDS. TEMPS CLOSE TO GMOS25 FOR THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OVER THE NEXT DAY...WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES WILL BE SLOW TO WORK OFFSHORE...WHILE ANOTHER AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND
CAROLINAS. IN BETWEEN...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE AREA.

THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A CONTINUATION OF VFR CONDITIONS WITH W/NW
FLOW IN THE MORNING. THE FLOW BACKS AROUND TO THE W/SW IN THE AFT
DUE TO A TROF DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA. LOCAL SEABREEZES MAY
DEVELOP IF THE FLOW WEAKENS ENOUGH. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS TO
OCCUR WILL BE AT KJFK AND KBDR. WINDS THEN VEER AROUND TO THE N
LATE SAT NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE NW.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WED...
.SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.
.MON-TUE...POSSIBLE MVFR WITH SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT-WED...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A
LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY
WORKS SLOWLY EAST. THERE COULD BE A SHORT PERIOD THIS MORNING WHERE
NW GUSTS COME CLOSE ON THE OCEAN WATERS...AND AGAIN ON TUE AS A NLY
FLOW STRENGTHENS BETWEEN A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MIN RH WILL FALL INTO THE 20S TODAY. WIND GUSTS ARE FCST TO BE IN
THE 15-20 MPH RANGE...WHICH IS BLW RED FLAG CRITERIA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS AND FORECAST LOWS FOR SATURDAY APRIL 25

NEWARK NJ...34/1936......35
BRIDGEPORT CT 32/1956....33
CENTRAL PARK NY 29/1919..36
LAGUARDIA NY 36/1971.....38
KENNEDY NY *37/1971......36
ISLIP NY 36/2012.........31

*AND PREVIOUS YEARS

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ067>070-
     078>081.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ002-004-
     103>105-107.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...DW
FIRE WEATHER...JMC
HYDROLOGY...JMC
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KOKX 250531
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
131 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS FROM TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF
COAST STATES WILL TRACK TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
THURSDAY...AND CONTINUE NORTHEAST INTO THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPDATE PRIMARILY FOR MARINE HEADLINES. THE FCST IS ON TRACK.

UPPER LOW WEAKENS SLIGHTLY TONIGHT AS IT REMAINS CENTERED OVER
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. HEIGHTS RISE SLIGHTLY ACROSS OUR AREA
TONIGHT.

AT THE SURFACE...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION REMAINING WEST OF THE AREA AS LOW PRESSURE REMAINS
STATIONARY OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

MODELS DO SHOW PLENTY OF DRYING TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW LOSES IT/S
GRIP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE NW. THESE
WINDS THOUGH ARE EXPECTED TO LIGHTEN LATE TONIGHT.

FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT AS A MOS BLEND WOULD SUPPORT
TEMPS CLOSE TO OR BELOW FREEZING. A FEW ZONES ARE BORDERLINE...BUT
WILL BE QUITE CLOSE OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN FORECAST DILEMMA IS THE
AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MIXING AND EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER WHICH COULD
IMPACT TEMPS. CLOUD COVER IS DISSIPATING AS EXPECTED...SO FEEL
FREEZE WARNING IS STILL WARRANTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
MORE OF THE SAME AS UPPER LOW REMAINS SITUATED TO THE NORTHEAST.
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES SOMEWHAT...AND TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE.
EXPECT HIGH/S TO STILL FALL SHORT OF SEASONAL NORMS...BUT WILL BE
WARMER. WEAK WAA DUE TO RISING HEIGHTS AND MORE SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP
TEMPS WARM THROUGH THE 50S...APPROACHING 60 IN SPOTS.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE CENTRAL MID WEST
AND TRACKS TO OUR SOUTH. THIS LOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH MID WEST
SHORTWAVE...WHICH SHOULD GET BLOCKED BY THE PESKY LOW OFF THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. AS SUCH...DRY WEATHER IS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 40S IN AND AROUND
NYC TO THE LOWER 30S IN THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A BLOCKY PATTERN LOOKS TO DOMINATE MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD
ACROSS THE CONUS. A LARGE PERSISTENT CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO PLAGUE THE NORTHEAST US THROUGH TUESDAY WHICH WILL
RESULT IN GENERALLY MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS
POSSIBLE...MAINLY DURING THE DAY...AS SPOKES OF VORTICITY WITHIN
THE CYCLONIC FLOW ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA.

THIS CUTOFF FINALLY EXITS ON TUE WITH RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TUE
NIGHT AND WED. DRY CONDS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED.

MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE WITH HOW QUICKLY THE RIDGE AXIS
MOVES THROUGH AND THE NEXT TROUGH APPROACHES. GFS IS FASTER THAN THE
EC. WHAT BOTH MODELS DO AGREE ON IS THE PHASING OF A NRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WITH A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS RESULTING IN A
DEEP TROUGH THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUE NIGHT. THE SFC LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CUTOFF TRACKS THROUGH THE GULF COAST STATES TO
OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST ON THU AND CONTINUES ON A NE TRACK
THROUGH FRI. HOWEVER DUE TO THE DIFFERENCES ALOFT THE EC IS
STRONGER...SLOWER AND CLOSER TO THE COAST...BUT HAS TRENDED FURTHER
OFFSHORE THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...THAN THE GFS. HAVE MAINTAINED CHC POPS
AT THE COAST...AND HAVE SCALED BACK TO SCHC FURTHER INLAND.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVELS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OVER THE NEXT DAY...WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES WILL BE SLOW TO WORK OFFSHORE...WHILE ANOTHER AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND
CAROLINAS. IN BETWEEN...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE AREA.

THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A CONTINUATION OF VFR CONDITIONS WITH W/NW
FLOW IN THE MORNING. THE FLOW BACKS AROUND TO THE W/SW IN THE AFT
DUE TO A TROF DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA. LOCAL SEABREEZES MAY
DEVELOP IF THE FLOW WEAKENS ENOUGH. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS TO
OCCUR WILL BE AT KJFK AND KBDR. WINDS THEN VEER AROUND TO THE N
LATE SAT NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE NW.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WED...
.SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.
.MON-TUE...POSSIBLE MVFR WITH SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT-WED...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FOR THE PROTECTED WATERS CANCELLED WITH WINDS BLW 25 KT. THE
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT TIL 6 AM ON THE OCEAN. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW 5 FEET OVER THE OCEAN WATERS...AND BELOW 2 TO 3 FT
ELSEWHERE. WINDS ABATE SOMEWHAT THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES SOMEWHAT.

THEREAFTER...A WEAK PRES GRADIENT WILL KEEP SUB-ADVY CONDS ACROSS
THE WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. MARGINAL NW GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE ON THE OCEAN WATERS AS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR ELEVATED FIRE GROWTH WILL EXIST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. WIND CRITERIA LOOKS TO FALL SHORT IN SEVERAL
AREAS...AND FORECAST RH VALUES FALL SHORT FOR SOME SPOTS. 1 AND
1O HOUR FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS HAVE LOWERED IN THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS...SO AN SPS COULD EVENTUALLY BE APPROPRIATE FOR SOME
LOCATIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS AND FORECAST LOWS FOR SATURDAY APRIL 25

NEWARK NJ...34/1936......33
BRIDGEPORT CT 32/1956....34
CENTRAL PARK NY 29/1919..36
LAGUARDIA NY 36/1971.....38
KENNEDY NY *37/1971......36
ISLIP NY 36/2012.........31

*AND PREVIOUS YEARS

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ067>070-
     078>081.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ002-004-
     103>105-107.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...24/PW
NEAR TERM...JMC/JC/PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...JMC/GOODMAN
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...24/PW
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KOKX 250531
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
131 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS FROM TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF
COAST STATES WILL TRACK TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
THURSDAY...AND CONTINUE NORTHEAST INTO THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPDATE PRIMARILY FOR MARINE HEADLINES. THE FCST IS ON TRACK.

UPPER LOW WEAKENS SLIGHTLY TONIGHT AS IT REMAINS CENTERED OVER
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. HEIGHTS RISE SLIGHTLY ACROSS OUR AREA
TONIGHT.

AT THE SURFACE...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION REMAINING WEST OF THE AREA AS LOW PRESSURE REMAINS
STATIONARY OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

MODELS DO SHOW PLENTY OF DRYING TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW LOSES IT/S
GRIP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE NW. THESE
WINDS THOUGH ARE EXPECTED TO LIGHTEN LATE TONIGHT.

FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT AS A MOS BLEND WOULD SUPPORT
TEMPS CLOSE TO OR BELOW FREEZING. A FEW ZONES ARE BORDERLINE...BUT
WILL BE QUITE CLOSE OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN FORECAST DILEMMA IS THE
AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MIXING AND EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER WHICH COULD
IMPACT TEMPS. CLOUD COVER IS DISSIPATING AS EXPECTED...SO FEEL
FREEZE WARNING IS STILL WARRANTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
MORE OF THE SAME AS UPPER LOW REMAINS SITUATED TO THE NORTHEAST.
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES SOMEWHAT...AND TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE.
EXPECT HIGH/S TO STILL FALL SHORT OF SEASONAL NORMS...BUT WILL BE
WARMER. WEAK WAA DUE TO RISING HEIGHTS AND MORE SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP
TEMPS WARM THROUGH THE 50S...APPROACHING 60 IN SPOTS.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE CENTRAL MID WEST
AND TRACKS TO OUR SOUTH. THIS LOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH MID WEST
SHORTWAVE...WHICH SHOULD GET BLOCKED BY THE PESKY LOW OFF THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. AS SUCH...DRY WEATHER IS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 40S IN AND AROUND
NYC TO THE LOWER 30S IN THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A BLOCKY PATTERN LOOKS TO DOMINATE MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD
ACROSS THE CONUS. A LARGE PERSISTENT CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO PLAGUE THE NORTHEAST US THROUGH TUESDAY WHICH WILL
RESULT IN GENERALLY MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS
POSSIBLE...MAINLY DURING THE DAY...AS SPOKES OF VORTICITY WITHIN
THE CYCLONIC FLOW ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA.

THIS CUTOFF FINALLY EXITS ON TUE WITH RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TUE
NIGHT AND WED. DRY CONDS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED.

MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE WITH HOW QUICKLY THE RIDGE AXIS
MOVES THROUGH AND THE NEXT TROUGH APPROACHES. GFS IS FASTER THAN THE
EC. WHAT BOTH MODELS DO AGREE ON IS THE PHASING OF A NRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WITH A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS RESULTING IN A
DEEP TROUGH THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUE NIGHT. THE SFC LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CUTOFF TRACKS THROUGH THE GULF COAST STATES TO
OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST ON THU AND CONTINUES ON A NE TRACK
THROUGH FRI. HOWEVER DUE TO THE DIFFERENCES ALOFT THE EC IS
STRONGER...SLOWER AND CLOSER TO THE COAST...BUT HAS TRENDED FURTHER
OFFSHORE THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...THAN THE GFS. HAVE MAINTAINED CHC POPS
AT THE COAST...AND HAVE SCALED BACK TO SCHC FURTHER INLAND.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVELS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OVER THE NEXT DAY...WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES WILL BE SLOW TO WORK OFFSHORE...WHILE ANOTHER AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND
CAROLINAS. IN BETWEEN...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE AREA.

THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A CONTINUATION OF VFR CONDITIONS WITH W/NW
FLOW IN THE MORNING. THE FLOW BACKS AROUND TO THE W/SW IN THE AFT
DUE TO A TROF DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA. LOCAL SEABREEZES MAY
DEVELOP IF THE FLOW WEAKENS ENOUGH. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS TO
OCCUR WILL BE AT KJFK AND KBDR. WINDS THEN VEER AROUND TO THE N
LATE SAT NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE NW.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WED...
.SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.
.MON-TUE...POSSIBLE MVFR WITH SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT-WED...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FOR THE PROTECTED WATERS CANCELLED WITH WINDS BLW 25 KT. THE
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT TIL 6 AM ON THE OCEAN. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW 5 FEET OVER THE OCEAN WATERS...AND BELOW 2 TO 3 FT
ELSEWHERE. WINDS ABATE SOMEWHAT THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES SOMEWHAT.

THEREAFTER...A WEAK PRES GRADIENT WILL KEEP SUB-ADVY CONDS ACROSS
THE WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. MARGINAL NW GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE ON THE OCEAN WATERS AS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR ELEVATED FIRE GROWTH WILL EXIST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. WIND CRITERIA LOOKS TO FALL SHORT IN SEVERAL
AREAS...AND FORECAST RH VALUES FALL SHORT FOR SOME SPOTS. 1 AND
1O HOUR FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS HAVE LOWERED IN THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS...SO AN SPS COULD EVENTUALLY BE APPROPRIATE FOR SOME
LOCATIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS AND FORECAST LOWS FOR SATURDAY APRIL 25

NEWARK NJ...34/1936......33
BRIDGEPORT CT 32/1956....34
CENTRAL PARK NY 29/1919..36
LAGUARDIA NY 36/1971.....38
KENNEDY NY *37/1971......36
ISLIP NY 36/2012.........31

*AND PREVIOUS YEARS

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ067>070-
     078>081.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ002-004-
     103>105-107.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...24/PW
NEAR TERM...JMC/JC/PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...JMC/GOODMAN
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...24/PW
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KALY 250511
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
111 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE STORM IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NORTHWEST
FLOW AROUND IT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 100 AM EDT...CLOUDS SLOWLY ERODING NORTH OF I90 AS DRIER
AIR GRADUALLY WORKS INTO THE REGION. CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME STILL
PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION...BUT WILL BECOME MORE NEUTRAL TOWARDS
SATURDAY MORNING. A FEW WEAK RETURNS ON THE RADAR COMING DOWN FROM
LAKE CHAMPLAIN MAY IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTY
NEAR WHITEHALL AND A FEW FLURRIES SEEN ON THE WEBCAMS INTO THE
DACKS. THIS TREND SHOULD ALSO DIMINISH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD.

EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY IN MOST
AREAS OVERNIGHT...BUT REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
THIRD TO NORTHERN QUARTER OF THE FORECAST AREA DUE TO THE CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LOW WHICH WILL REMAIN OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST.

IT WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COLD TONIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
20S...WHICH IS ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ITS INFLUENCE ON OUR
REGION WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AS TEMPS ALOFT WARM A LITTLE AND
THE CYCLONIC FLOW WEAKENS. THIS WILL RESULT IN LESS CLOUDINESS
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...GENERALLY MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS...AND WARMER TEMPS. ALTHOUGH A SHOWERS OR SNOW SHOWERS
CAN NOT BE RULED OUT SATURDAY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...THE
COVERAGE OF ANY PCPN WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN IT WAS ON FRIDAY.

ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND...TEMPS WILL
STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL. HIGH SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 40S AND 50S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID
30S. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

ANOTHER IMPULSE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL BRING MORE CLOUDINESS AND A CHANCE OF
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND HAVE FORECAST POPS INCREASING
TO 25 TO 45 PERCENT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE PERIOD MARKS A TRANSITION TO A WARMING PATTERN.  WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
GIVEN NO ORGANIZED SYSTEMS DURING THE PERIOD...SHOWERS WILL BE MOST
LIKELY AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WHEN TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLEST...WITH ONLY SPOTTY SHOWERS POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SUNSHINE WILL BE LIMITED...BUT MOST ABUNDANT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WITH A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED JUST NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION OVER MAINE...CYCLONIC FLOW IS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA. SCT-
BKN CLOUDS AT 4-6 KFT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS OF
KGFL/KALB/KPSF THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ALTHOUGH ENOUGH DRY
AIR HAS WORKED IN TO ALLOW FOR NEARLY CLEAR SKIES AT KPOU. W-NW
WINDS WILL BE AROUND 5-10 KTS FOR ALL SITES...ALTHOUGH THEY MAY
BRIEFLY DROP TO 5 KTS OR LESS FOR THE LATE NIGHT HOURS.

DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT WILL PROMOTE
MORE CLOUDS TO DEVELOP DURING DAYTIME HEATING...ESP FOR THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS. AS A RESULT...SCT-BKN CLOUDS OF 5-6 KFT WILL
CONTINUE...ALTHOUGH NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED...AND FLYING CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN VFR. DURING DAYTIME MIXING...NW WINDS OF AROUND 10 KTS
WILL BE IN PLACE...WITH SOME GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS AT KALB/KPSF
POSSIBLE. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE EVENING HOURS WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING...AND LOOK TO BE AROUND 5 KTS FOR SAT NIGHT
FROM A W-NW DIRECTION. CLOUDS SHOULD START TO DIMINISH FOR SAT
NIGHT AS WELL.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
OUR REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
LOW ANCHORED ACROSS EASTERN CANADA.

THE RH SHOULD RECOVER TO 75-90 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN DROP INTO
THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE SAT AFTERNOON. WINDS SAT MAY STILL
OCCASIONALLY GUST UP TO 25-30 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION...MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF
SNOW TONIGHT...WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL
HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR
HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA (HSA).

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/BGM/JPV
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...GJM




000
FXUS61 KALY 250511
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
111 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE STORM IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NORTHWEST
FLOW AROUND IT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 100 AM EDT...CLOUDS SLOWLY ERODING NORTH OF I90 AS DRIER
AIR GRADUALLY WORKS INTO THE REGION. CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME STILL
PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION...BUT WILL BECOME MORE NEUTRAL TOWARDS
SATURDAY MORNING. A FEW WEAK RETURNS ON THE RADAR COMING DOWN FROM
LAKE CHAMPLAIN MAY IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTY
NEAR WHITEHALL AND A FEW FLURRIES SEEN ON THE WEBCAMS INTO THE
DACKS. THIS TREND SHOULD ALSO DIMINISH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD.

EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY IN MOST
AREAS OVERNIGHT...BUT REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
THIRD TO NORTHERN QUARTER OF THE FORECAST AREA DUE TO THE CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LOW WHICH WILL REMAIN OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST.

IT WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COLD TONIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
20S...WHICH IS ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ITS INFLUENCE ON OUR
REGION WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AS TEMPS ALOFT WARM A LITTLE AND
THE CYCLONIC FLOW WEAKENS. THIS WILL RESULT IN LESS CLOUDINESS
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...GENERALLY MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS...AND WARMER TEMPS. ALTHOUGH A SHOWERS OR SNOW SHOWERS
CAN NOT BE RULED OUT SATURDAY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...THE
COVERAGE OF ANY PCPN WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN IT WAS ON FRIDAY.

ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND...TEMPS WILL
STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL. HIGH SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 40S AND 50S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID
30S. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

ANOTHER IMPULSE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL BRING MORE CLOUDINESS AND A CHANCE OF
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND HAVE FORECAST POPS INCREASING
TO 25 TO 45 PERCENT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE PERIOD MARKS A TRANSITION TO A WARMING PATTERN.  WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
GIVEN NO ORGANIZED SYSTEMS DURING THE PERIOD...SHOWERS WILL BE MOST
LIKELY AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WHEN TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLEST...WITH ONLY SPOTTY SHOWERS POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SUNSHINE WILL BE LIMITED...BUT MOST ABUNDANT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WITH A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED JUST NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION OVER MAINE...CYCLONIC FLOW IS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA. SCT-
BKN CLOUDS AT 4-6 KFT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS OF
KGFL/KALB/KPSF THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ALTHOUGH ENOUGH DRY
AIR HAS WORKED IN TO ALLOW FOR NEARLY CLEAR SKIES AT KPOU. W-NW
WINDS WILL BE AROUND 5-10 KTS FOR ALL SITES...ALTHOUGH THEY MAY
BRIEFLY DROP TO 5 KTS OR LESS FOR THE LATE NIGHT HOURS.

DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT WILL PROMOTE
MORE CLOUDS TO DEVELOP DURING DAYTIME HEATING...ESP FOR THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS. AS A RESULT...SCT-BKN CLOUDS OF 5-6 KFT WILL
CONTINUE...ALTHOUGH NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED...AND FLYING CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN VFR. DURING DAYTIME MIXING...NW WINDS OF AROUND 10 KTS
WILL BE IN PLACE...WITH SOME GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS AT KALB/KPSF
POSSIBLE. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE EVENING HOURS WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING...AND LOOK TO BE AROUND 5 KTS FOR SAT NIGHT
FROM A W-NW DIRECTION. CLOUDS SHOULD START TO DIMINISH FOR SAT
NIGHT AS WELL.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
OUR REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
LOW ANCHORED ACROSS EASTERN CANADA.

THE RH SHOULD RECOVER TO 75-90 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN DROP INTO
THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE SAT AFTERNOON. WINDS SAT MAY STILL
OCCASIONALLY GUST UP TO 25-30 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION...MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF
SNOW TONIGHT...WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL
HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR
HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA (HSA).

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/BGM/JPV
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...GJM



000
FXUS61 KALY 250511
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
111 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE STORM IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NORTHWEST
FLOW AROUND IT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 100 AM EDT...CLOUDS SLOWLY ERODING NORTH OF I90 AS DRIER
AIR GRADUALLY WORKS INTO THE REGION. CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME STILL
PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION...BUT WILL BECOME MORE NEUTRAL TOWARDS
SATURDAY MORNING. A FEW WEAK RETURNS ON THE RADAR COMING DOWN FROM
LAKE CHAMPLAIN MAY IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTY
NEAR WHITEHALL AND A FEW FLURRIES SEEN ON THE WEBCAMS INTO THE
DACKS. THIS TREND SHOULD ALSO DIMINISH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD.

EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY IN MOST
AREAS OVERNIGHT...BUT REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
THIRD TO NORTHERN QUARTER OF THE FORECAST AREA DUE TO THE CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LOW WHICH WILL REMAIN OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST.

IT WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COLD TONIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
20S...WHICH IS ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ITS INFLUENCE ON OUR
REGION WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AS TEMPS ALOFT WARM A LITTLE AND
THE CYCLONIC FLOW WEAKENS. THIS WILL RESULT IN LESS CLOUDINESS
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...GENERALLY MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS...AND WARMER TEMPS. ALTHOUGH A SHOWERS OR SNOW SHOWERS
CAN NOT BE RULED OUT SATURDAY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...THE
COVERAGE OF ANY PCPN WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN IT WAS ON FRIDAY.

ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND...TEMPS WILL
STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL. HIGH SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 40S AND 50S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID
30S. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

ANOTHER IMPULSE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL BRING MORE CLOUDINESS AND A CHANCE OF
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND HAVE FORECAST POPS INCREASING
TO 25 TO 45 PERCENT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE PERIOD MARKS A TRANSITION TO A WARMING PATTERN.  WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
GIVEN NO ORGANIZED SYSTEMS DURING THE PERIOD...SHOWERS WILL BE MOST
LIKELY AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WHEN TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLEST...WITH ONLY SPOTTY SHOWERS POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SUNSHINE WILL BE LIMITED...BUT MOST ABUNDANT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WITH A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED JUST NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION OVER MAINE...CYCLONIC FLOW IS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA. SCT-
BKN CLOUDS AT 4-6 KFT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS OF
KGFL/KALB/KPSF THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ALTHOUGH ENOUGH DRY
AIR HAS WORKED IN TO ALLOW FOR NEARLY CLEAR SKIES AT KPOU. W-NW
WINDS WILL BE AROUND 5-10 KTS FOR ALL SITES...ALTHOUGH THEY MAY
BRIEFLY DROP TO 5 KTS OR LESS FOR THE LATE NIGHT HOURS.

DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT WILL PROMOTE
MORE CLOUDS TO DEVELOP DURING DAYTIME HEATING...ESP FOR THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS. AS A RESULT...SCT-BKN CLOUDS OF 5-6 KFT WILL
CONTINUE...ALTHOUGH NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED...AND FLYING CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN VFR. DURING DAYTIME MIXING...NW WINDS OF AROUND 10 KTS
WILL BE IN PLACE...WITH SOME GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS AT KALB/KPSF
POSSIBLE. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE EVENING HOURS WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING...AND LOOK TO BE AROUND 5 KTS FOR SAT NIGHT
FROM A W-NW DIRECTION. CLOUDS SHOULD START TO DIMINISH FOR SAT
NIGHT AS WELL.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
OUR REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
LOW ANCHORED ACROSS EASTERN CANADA.

THE RH SHOULD RECOVER TO 75-90 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN DROP INTO
THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE SAT AFTERNOON. WINDS SAT MAY STILL
OCCASIONALLY GUST UP TO 25-30 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION...MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF
SNOW TONIGHT...WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL
HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR
HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA (HSA).

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/BGM/JPV
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...GJM



000
FXUS61 KALY 250503
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
103 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE STORM IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NORTHWEST
FLOW AROUND IT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 100 AM EDT...CLOUDS SLOWLY ERODING NORTH OF I90 AS DRIER
AIR GRADUALLY WORKS INTO THE REGION. CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME STILL
PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION...BUT WILL BECOME MORE NEUTRAL TOWARDS
SATURDAY MORNING. A FEW WEAK RETURNS ON THE RADAR COMING DOWN FROM
LAKE CHAMPLAIN MAY IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTY
NEAR WHITEHALL AND A FEW FLURRIES SEEN ON THE WEBCAMS INTO THE
DACKS. THIS TREND SHOULD ALSO DIMINISH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD.

EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY IN MOST
AREAS OVERNIGHT...BUT REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
THIRD TO NORTHERN QUARTER OF THE FORECAST AREA DUE TO THE CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LOW WHICH WILL REMAIN OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST.

IT WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COLD TONIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
20S...WHICH IS ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ITS INFLUENCE ON OUR
REGION WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AS TEMPS ALOFT WARM A LITTLE AND
THE CYCLONIC FLOW WEAKENS. THIS WILL RESULT IN LESS CLOUDINESS
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...GENERALLY MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS...AND WARMER TEMPS. ALTHOUGH A SHOWERS OR SNOW SHOWERS
CAN NOT BE RULED OUT SATURDAY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...THE
COVERAGE OF ANY PCPN WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN IT WAS ON FRIDAY.

ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND...TEMPS WILL
STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL. HIGH SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 40S AND 50S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID
30S. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

ANOTHER IMPULSE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL BRING MORE CLOUDINESS AND A CHANCE OF
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND HAVE FORECAST POPS INCREASING
TO 25 TO 45 PERCENT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE PERIOD MARKS A TRANSITION TO A WARMING PATTERN.  WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
GIVEN NO ORGANIZED SYSTEMS DURING THE PERIOD...SHOWERS WILL BE MOST
LIKELY AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WHEN TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLEST...WITH ONLY SPOTTY SHOWERS POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SUNSHINE WILL BE LIMITED...BUT MOST ABUNDANT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO TONIGHT...BUT
WILL BECOME LESS CYCLONIC ON SATURDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
TO RESULT IN PLENTY OF CLOUDS IN VFR RANGE AROUND 4-6 KFT EARLY
TONIGHT...WITH CLOUDS BECOMING MORE SCATTERED LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING MAINLY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. SNOW SHOWERS
HAVE DIMINISHED SO DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
ENDING 00Z SUNDAY.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST AROUND 8-13 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS AT
KALB/KPSF...WITH WIND SPEEDS DECREASING TO 5-10 KTS OVERNIGHT.
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS AFTER
MIXING COMMENCES SATURDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
OUR REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
LOW ANCHORED ACROSS EASTERN CANADA.

THE RH SHOULD RECOVER TO 75-90 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN DROP INTO
THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE SAT AFTERNOON. WINDS SAT MAY STILL
OCCASIONALLY GUST UP TO 25-30 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION...MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF
SNOW TONIGHT...WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL
HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR
HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA (HSA).

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/BGM/JPV
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...GJM



000
FXUS61 KALY 250503
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
103 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE STORM IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NORTHWEST
FLOW AROUND IT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 100 AM EDT...CLOUDS SLOWLY ERODING NORTH OF I90 AS DRIER
AIR GRADUALLY WORKS INTO THE REGION. CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME STILL
PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION...BUT WILL BECOME MORE NEUTRAL TOWARDS
SATURDAY MORNING. A FEW WEAK RETURNS ON THE RADAR COMING DOWN FROM
LAKE CHAMPLAIN MAY IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTY
NEAR WHITEHALL AND A FEW FLURRIES SEEN ON THE WEBCAMS INTO THE
DACKS. THIS TREND SHOULD ALSO DIMINISH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD.

EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY IN MOST
AREAS OVERNIGHT...BUT REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
THIRD TO NORTHERN QUARTER OF THE FORECAST AREA DUE TO THE CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LOW WHICH WILL REMAIN OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST.

IT WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COLD TONIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
20S...WHICH IS ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ITS INFLUENCE ON OUR
REGION WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AS TEMPS ALOFT WARM A LITTLE AND
THE CYCLONIC FLOW WEAKENS. THIS WILL RESULT IN LESS CLOUDINESS
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...GENERALLY MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS...AND WARMER TEMPS. ALTHOUGH A SHOWERS OR SNOW SHOWERS
CAN NOT BE RULED OUT SATURDAY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...THE
COVERAGE OF ANY PCPN WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN IT WAS ON FRIDAY.

ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND...TEMPS WILL
STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL. HIGH SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 40S AND 50S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID
30S. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

ANOTHER IMPULSE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL BRING MORE CLOUDINESS AND A CHANCE OF
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND HAVE FORECAST POPS INCREASING
TO 25 TO 45 PERCENT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE PERIOD MARKS A TRANSITION TO A WARMING PATTERN.  WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
GIVEN NO ORGANIZED SYSTEMS DURING THE PERIOD...SHOWERS WILL BE MOST
LIKELY AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WHEN TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLEST...WITH ONLY SPOTTY SHOWERS POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SUNSHINE WILL BE LIMITED...BUT MOST ABUNDANT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO TONIGHT...BUT
WILL BECOME LESS CYCLONIC ON SATURDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
TO RESULT IN PLENTY OF CLOUDS IN VFR RANGE AROUND 4-6 KFT EARLY
TONIGHT...WITH CLOUDS BECOMING MORE SCATTERED LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING MAINLY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. SNOW SHOWERS
HAVE DIMINISHED SO DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
ENDING 00Z SUNDAY.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST AROUND 8-13 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS AT
KALB/KPSF...WITH WIND SPEEDS DECREASING TO 5-10 KTS OVERNIGHT.
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS AFTER
MIXING COMMENCES SATURDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
OUR REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
LOW ANCHORED ACROSS EASTERN CANADA.

THE RH SHOULD RECOVER TO 75-90 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN DROP INTO
THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE SAT AFTERNOON. WINDS SAT MAY STILL
OCCASIONALLY GUST UP TO 25-30 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION...MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF
SNOW TONIGHT...WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL
HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR
HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA (HSA).

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/BGM/JPV
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...GJM




000
FXUS61 KALY 250503
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
103 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE STORM IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NORTHWEST
FLOW AROUND IT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 100 AM EDT...CLOUDS SLOWLY ERODING NORTH OF I90 AS DRIER
AIR GRADUALLY WORKS INTO THE REGION. CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME STILL
PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION...BUT WILL BECOME MORE NEUTRAL TOWARDS
SATURDAY MORNING. A FEW WEAK RETURNS ON THE RADAR COMING DOWN FROM
LAKE CHAMPLAIN MAY IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTY
NEAR WHITEHALL AND A FEW FLURRIES SEEN ON THE WEBCAMS INTO THE
DACKS. THIS TREND SHOULD ALSO DIMINISH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD.

EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY IN MOST
AREAS OVERNIGHT...BUT REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
THIRD TO NORTHERN QUARTER OF THE FORECAST AREA DUE TO THE CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LOW WHICH WILL REMAIN OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST.

IT WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COLD TONIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
20S...WHICH IS ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ITS INFLUENCE ON OUR
REGION WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AS TEMPS ALOFT WARM A LITTLE AND
THE CYCLONIC FLOW WEAKENS. THIS WILL RESULT IN LESS CLOUDINESS
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...GENERALLY MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS...AND WARMER TEMPS. ALTHOUGH A SHOWERS OR SNOW SHOWERS
CAN NOT BE RULED OUT SATURDAY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...THE
COVERAGE OF ANY PCPN WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN IT WAS ON FRIDAY.

ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND...TEMPS WILL
STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL. HIGH SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 40S AND 50S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID
30S. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

ANOTHER IMPULSE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL BRING MORE CLOUDINESS AND A CHANCE OF
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND HAVE FORECAST POPS INCREASING
TO 25 TO 45 PERCENT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE PERIOD MARKS A TRANSITION TO A WARMING PATTERN.  WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
GIVEN NO ORGANIZED SYSTEMS DURING THE PERIOD...SHOWERS WILL BE MOST
LIKELY AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WHEN TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLEST...WITH ONLY SPOTTY SHOWERS POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SUNSHINE WILL BE LIMITED...BUT MOST ABUNDANT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO TONIGHT...BUT
WILL BECOME LESS CYCLONIC ON SATURDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
TO RESULT IN PLENTY OF CLOUDS IN VFR RANGE AROUND 4-6 KFT EARLY
TONIGHT...WITH CLOUDS BECOMING MORE SCATTERED LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING MAINLY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. SNOW SHOWERS
HAVE DIMINISHED SO DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
ENDING 00Z SUNDAY.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST AROUND 8-13 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS AT
KALB/KPSF...WITH WIND SPEEDS DECREASING TO 5-10 KTS OVERNIGHT.
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS AFTER
MIXING COMMENCES SATURDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
OUR REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
LOW ANCHORED ACROSS EASTERN CANADA.

THE RH SHOULD RECOVER TO 75-90 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN DROP INTO
THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE SAT AFTERNOON. WINDS SAT MAY STILL
OCCASIONALLY GUST UP TO 25-30 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION...MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF
SNOW TONIGHT...WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL
HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR
HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA (HSA).

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/BGM/JPV
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...GJM



000
FXUS61 KOKX 250409
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1209 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS FROM TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF
COAST STATES WILL TRACK TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
THURSDAY...AND CONTINUE NORTHEAST INTO THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPDATE PRIMARILY FOR MARINE HEADLINES. THE FCST IS ON TRACK.

UPPER LOW WEAKENS SLIGHTLY TONIGHT AS IT REMAINS CENTERED OVER
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. HEIGHTS RISE SLIGHTLY ACROSS OUR AREA
TONIGHT.

AT THE SURFACE...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION REMAINING WEST OF THE AREA AS LOW PRESSURE REMAINS
STATIONARY OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

MODELS DO SHOW PLENTY OF DRYING TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW LOSES IT/S
GRIP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE NW. THESE
WINDS THOUGH ARE EXPECTED TO LIGHTEN LATE TONIGHT.

FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT AS A MOS BLEND WOULD SUPPORT
TEMPS CLOSE TO OR BELOW FREEZING. A FEW ZONES ARE BORDERLINE...BUT
WILL BE QUITE CLOSE OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN FORECAST DILEMMA IS THE
AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MIXING AND EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER WHICH COULD
IMPACT TEMPS. CLOUD COVER IS DISSIPATING AS EXPECTED...SO FEEL
FREEZE WARNING IS STILL WARRANTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
MORE OF THE SAME AS UPPER LOW REMAINS SITUATED TO THE NORTHEAST.
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES SOMEWHAT...AND TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE.
EXPECT HIGH/S TO STILL FALL SHORT OF SEASONAL NORMS...BUT WILL BE
WARMER. WEAK WAA DUE TO RISING HEIGHTS AND MORE SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP
TEMPS WARM THROUGH THE 50S...APPROACHING 60 IN SPOTS.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE CENTRAL MID WEST
AND TRACKS TO OUR SOUTH. THIS LOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH MID WEST
SHORTWAVE...WHICH SHOULD GET BLOCKED BY THE PESKY LOW OFF THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. AS SUCH...DRY WEATHER IS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 40S IN AND AROUND
NYC TO THE LOWER 30S IN THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A BLOCKY PATTERN LOOKS TO DOMINATE MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD
ACROSS THE CONUS. A LARGE PERSISTENT CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO PLAGUE THE NORTHEAST US THROUGH TUESDAY WHICH WILL
RESULT IN GENERALLY MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS
POSSIBLE...MAINLY DURING THE DAY...AS SPOKES OF VORTICITY WITHIN
THE CYCLONIC FLOW ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA.

THIS CUTOFF FINALLY EXITS ON TUE WITH RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TUE
NIGHT AND WED. DRY CONDS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED.

MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE WITH HOW QUICKLY THE RIDGE AXIS
MOVES THROUGH AND THE NEXT TROUGH APPROACHES. GFS IS FASTER THAN THE
EC. WHAT BOTH MODELS DO AGREE ON IS THE PHASING OF A NRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WITH A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS RESULTING IN A
DEEP TROUGH THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUE NIGHT. THE SFC LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CUTOFF TRACKS THROUGH THE GULF COAST STATES TO
OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST ON THU AND CONTINUES ON A NE TRACK
THROUGH FRI. HOWEVER DUE TO THE DIFFERENCES ALOFT THE EC IS
STRONGER...SLOWER AND CLOSER TO THE COAST...BUT HAS TRENDED FURTHER
OFFSHORE THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...THAN THE GFS. HAVE MAINTAINED CHC POPS
AT THE COAST...AND HAVE SCALED BACK TO SCHC FURTHER INLAND.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVELS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL SLOWLY
WEAKEN TONIGHT...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST. THE HIGH WILL RETREAT FARTHER NORTH ON SATURDAY.
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY NW TO NNW FLOW WILL DIMINISH
AND BACK WNW OVERNIGHT. GUSTS SHOULD RESUME DURING THE
MORNING...THEN WINDS SHOULD BACK WSW TO SW AT NEAR COASTAL
TERMINALS IN THE AFTERNOON...AND W ELSEWHERE.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WED...
.SAT...VFR.
.SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.
.MON-TUE...POSSIBLE MVFR WITH SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT-WED...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FOR THE PROTECTED WATERS CANCELLED WITH WINDS BLW 25 KT. THE
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT TIL 6 AM ON THE OCEAN. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW 5 FEET OVER THE OCEAN WATERS...AND BELOW 2 TO 3 FT
ELSEWHERE. WINDS ABATE SOMEWHAT THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES SOMEWHAT.

THEREAFTER...A WEAK PRES GRADIENT WILL KEEP SUB-ADVY CONDS ACROSS
THE WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. MARGINAL NW GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE ON THE OCEAN WATERS AS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR ELEVATED FIRE GROWTH WILL EXIST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. WIND CRITERIA LOOKS TO FALL SHORT IN SEVERAL
AREAS...AND FORECAST RH VALUES FALL SHORT FOR SOME SPOTS. 1 AND
1O HOUR FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS HAVE LOWERED IN THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS...SO AN SPS COULD EVENTUALLY BE APPROPRIATE FOR SOME
LOCATIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS AND FORECAST LOWS FOR SATURDAY APRIL 25

NEWARK NJ...34/1936......33
BRIDGEPORT CT 32/1956....34
CENTRAL PARK NY 29/1919..36
LAGUARDIA NY 36/1971.....38
KENNEDY NY *37/1971......36
ISLIP NY 36/2012.........31

*AND PREVIOUS YEARS

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ067>070-
     078>081.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ002-004-
     103>105-107.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...24/PW
NEAR TERM...JMC/JC/PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JMC/GOODMAN
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...24/PW
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KOKX 250409
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1209 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS FROM TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF
COAST STATES WILL TRACK TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
THURSDAY...AND CONTINUE NORTHEAST INTO THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPDATE PRIMARILY FOR MARINE HEADLINES. THE FCST IS ON TRACK.

UPPER LOW WEAKENS SLIGHTLY TONIGHT AS IT REMAINS CENTERED OVER
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. HEIGHTS RISE SLIGHTLY ACROSS OUR AREA
TONIGHT.

AT THE SURFACE...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION REMAINING WEST OF THE AREA AS LOW PRESSURE REMAINS
STATIONARY OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

MODELS DO SHOW PLENTY OF DRYING TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW LOSES IT/S
GRIP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE NW. THESE
WINDS THOUGH ARE EXPECTED TO LIGHTEN LATE TONIGHT.

FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT AS A MOS BLEND WOULD SUPPORT
TEMPS CLOSE TO OR BELOW FREEZING. A FEW ZONES ARE BORDERLINE...BUT
WILL BE QUITE CLOSE OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN FORECAST DILEMMA IS THE
AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MIXING AND EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER WHICH COULD
IMPACT TEMPS. CLOUD COVER IS DISSIPATING AS EXPECTED...SO FEEL
FREEZE WARNING IS STILL WARRANTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
MORE OF THE SAME AS UPPER LOW REMAINS SITUATED TO THE NORTHEAST.
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES SOMEWHAT...AND TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE.
EXPECT HIGH/S TO STILL FALL SHORT OF SEASONAL NORMS...BUT WILL BE
WARMER. WEAK WAA DUE TO RISING HEIGHTS AND MORE SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP
TEMPS WARM THROUGH THE 50S...APPROACHING 60 IN SPOTS.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE CENTRAL MID WEST
AND TRACKS TO OUR SOUTH. THIS LOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH MID WEST
SHORTWAVE...WHICH SHOULD GET BLOCKED BY THE PESKY LOW OFF THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. AS SUCH...DRY WEATHER IS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 40S IN AND AROUND
NYC TO THE LOWER 30S IN THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A BLOCKY PATTERN LOOKS TO DOMINATE MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD
ACROSS THE CONUS. A LARGE PERSISTENT CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO PLAGUE THE NORTHEAST US THROUGH TUESDAY WHICH WILL
RESULT IN GENERALLY MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS
POSSIBLE...MAINLY DURING THE DAY...AS SPOKES OF VORTICITY WITHIN
THE CYCLONIC FLOW ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA.

THIS CUTOFF FINALLY EXITS ON TUE WITH RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TUE
NIGHT AND WED. DRY CONDS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED.

MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE WITH HOW QUICKLY THE RIDGE AXIS
MOVES THROUGH AND THE NEXT TROUGH APPROACHES. GFS IS FASTER THAN THE
EC. WHAT BOTH MODELS DO AGREE ON IS THE PHASING OF A NRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WITH A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS RESULTING IN A
DEEP TROUGH THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUE NIGHT. THE SFC LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CUTOFF TRACKS THROUGH THE GULF COAST STATES TO
OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST ON THU AND CONTINUES ON A NE TRACK
THROUGH FRI. HOWEVER DUE TO THE DIFFERENCES ALOFT THE EC IS
STRONGER...SLOWER AND CLOSER TO THE COAST...BUT HAS TRENDED FURTHER
OFFSHORE THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...THAN THE GFS. HAVE MAINTAINED CHC POPS
AT THE COAST...AND HAVE SCALED BACK TO SCHC FURTHER INLAND.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVELS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL SLOWLY
WEAKEN TONIGHT...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST. THE HIGH WILL RETREAT FARTHER NORTH ON SATURDAY.
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY NW TO NNW FLOW WILL DIMINISH
AND BACK WNW OVERNIGHT. GUSTS SHOULD RESUME DURING THE
MORNING...THEN WINDS SHOULD BACK WSW TO SW AT NEAR COASTAL
TERMINALS IN THE AFTERNOON...AND W ELSEWHERE.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WED...
.SAT...VFR.
.SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.
.MON-TUE...POSSIBLE MVFR WITH SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT-WED...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FOR THE PROTECTED WATERS CANCELLED WITH WINDS BLW 25 KT. THE
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT TIL 6 AM ON THE OCEAN. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW 5 FEET OVER THE OCEAN WATERS...AND BELOW 2 TO 3 FT
ELSEWHERE. WINDS ABATE SOMEWHAT THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES SOMEWHAT.

THEREAFTER...A WEAK PRES GRADIENT WILL KEEP SUB-ADVY CONDS ACROSS
THE WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. MARGINAL NW GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE ON THE OCEAN WATERS AS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR ELEVATED FIRE GROWTH WILL EXIST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. WIND CRITERIA LOOKS TO FALL SHORT IN SEVERAL
AREAS...AND FORECAST RH VALUES FALL SHORT FOR SOME SPOTS. 1 AND
1O HOUR FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS HAVE LOWERED IN THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS...SO AN SPS COULD EVENTUALLY BE APPROPRIATE FOR SOME
LOCATIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS AND FORECAST LOWS FOR SATURDAY APRIL 25

NEWARK NJ...34/1936......33
BRIDGEPORT CT 32/1956....34
CENTRAL PARK NY 29/1919..36
LAGUARDIA NY 36/1971.....38
KENNEDY NY *37/1971......36
ISLIP NY 36/2012.........31

*AND PREVIOUS YEARS

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ067>070-
     078>081.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ002-004-
     103>105-107.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...24/PW
NEAR TERM...JMC/JC/PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JMC/GOODMAN
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...24/PW
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KOKX 250250
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1050 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS FROM TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF
COAST STATES WILL TRACK TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
THURSDAY...AND CONTINUE NORTHEAST INTO THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
UPDATES MADE MAINLY TO CLOUD COVER FOR THIS EVENING.
FORECAST OTHERWISE ON TRACK.

UPPER LOW WEAKENS SLIGHTLY TONIGHT AS IT REMAINS CENTERED OVER
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. HEIGHTS RISE SLIGHTLY ACROSS OUR AREA
TONIGHT.

AT THE SURFACE...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION REMAINING WEST OF THE AREA AS LOW PRESSURE REMAINS
STATIONARY OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

MODELS DO SHOW PLENTY OF DRYING TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW LOSES IT/S
GRIP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE NW. THESE
WINDS THOUGH ARE EXPECTED TO LIGHTEN LATE TONIGHT.

FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT AS A MOS BLEND WOULD SUPPORT
TEMPS CLOSE TO OR BELOW FREEZING. A FEW ZONES ARE BORDERLINE...BUT
WILL BE QUITE CLOSE OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN FORECAST DILEMMA IS THE
AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MIXING AND EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER WHICH COULD
IMPACT TEMPS. CLOUD COVER IS DISSIPATING AS EXPECTED...SO FEEL
FREEZE WARNING IS STILL WARRANTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MORE OF THE SAME AS UPPER LOW REMAINS SITUATED TO THE NORTHEAST.
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES SOMEWHAT...AND TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE.
EXPECT HIGH/S TO STILL FALL SHORT OF SEASONAL NORMS...BUT WILL BE
WARMER. WEAK WAA DUE TO RISING HEIGHTS AND MORE SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP
TEMPS WARM THROUGH THE 50S...APPROACHING 60 IN SPOTS.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE CENTRAL MID WEST
AND TRACKS TO OUR SOUTH. THIS LOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH MID WEST
SHORTWAVE...WHICH SHOULD GET BLOCKED BY THE PESKY LOW OFF THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. AS SUCH...DRY WEATHER IS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 40S IN AND AROUND
NYC TO THE LOWER 30S IN THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A BLOCKY PATTERN LOOKS TO DOMINATE MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD
ACROSS THE CONUS. A LARGE PERSISTENT CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO PLAGUE THE NORTHEAST US THROUGH TUESDAY WHICH WILL
RESULT IN GENERALLY MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS
POSSIBLE...MAINLY DURING THE DAY...AS SPOKES OF VORTICITY WITHIN
THE CYCLONIC FLOW ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA.

THIS CUTOFF FINALLY EXITS ON TUE WITH RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TUE
NIGHT AND WED. DRY CONDS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED.

MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE WITH HOW QUICKLY THE RIDGE AXIS
MOVES THROUGH AND THE NEXT TROUGH APPROACHES. GFS IS FASTER THAN THE
EC. WHAT BOTH MODELS DO AGREE ON IS THE PHASING OF A NRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WITH A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS RESULTING IN A
DEEP TROUGH THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUE NIGHT. THE SFC LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CUTOFF TRACKS THROUGH THE GULF COAST STATES TO
OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST ON THU AND CONTINUES ON A NE TRACK
THROUGH FRI. HOWEVER DUE TO THE DIFFERENCES ALOFT THE EC IS
STRONGER...SLOWER AND CLOSER TO THE COAST...BUT HAS TRENDED FURTHER
OFFSHORE THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...THAN THE GFS. HAVE MAINTAINED CHC POPS
AT THE COAST...AND HAVE SCALED BACK TO SCHC FURTHER INLAND.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVELS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL SLOWLY
WEAKEN TONIGHT...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST. THE HIGH WILL RETREAT FARTHER NORTH ON SATURDAY.
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY NW TO NNW FLOW WILL DIMINISH
AND BACK WNW OVERNIGHT. GUSTS SHOULD RESUME DURING THE
MORNING...THEN WINDS SHOULD BACK WSW TO SW AT NEAR COASTAL
TERMINALS IN THE AFTERNOON...AND W ELSEWHERE.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WED...
.SAT...VFR.
.SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.
.MON-TUE...POSSIBLE MVFR WITH SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT-WED...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT DUE TO GUSTY NW
WINDS THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SEAS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW 5 FEET OVER THE OCEAN WATERS...AND BELOW 2 TO 3 FT
ELSEWHERE. WINDS ABATE SOMEWHAT LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES SOMEWHAT.

THEREAFTER...A WEAK PRES GRADIENT WILL KEEP SUB-ADVY CONDS ACROSS
THE WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. MARGINAL NW GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE ON THE OCEAN WATERS AS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR ELEVATED FIRE GROWTH WILL EXIST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. WIND CRITERIA LOOKS TO FALL SHORT IN SEVERAL
AREAS...AND FORECAST RH VALUES FALL SHORT FOR SOME SPOTS. 1 AND
1O HOUR FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS HAVE LOWERED IN THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS...SO AN SPS COULD EVENTUALLY BE APPROPRIATE FOR SOME
LOCATIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS AND FORECAST LOWS FOR SATURDAY APRIL 25

NEWARK NJ...34/1936......33
BRIDGEPORT CT 32/1956....34
CENTRAL PARK NY 29/1919..36
LAGUARDIA NY 36/1971.....38
KENNEDY NY *37/1971......36
ISLIP NY 36/2012.........31

*AND PREVIOUS YEARS

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NYZ067>070-078>081.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NJZ002-004-103>105-
     107.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...24/PW
NEAR TERM...JC/PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...GOODMAN
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...24/PW
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KOKX 250250
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1050 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS FROM TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF
COAST STATES WILL TRACK TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
THURSDAY...AND CONTINUE NORTHEAST INTO THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
UPDATES MADE MAINLY TO CLOUD COVER FOR THIS EVENING.
FORECAST OTHERWISE ON TRACK.

UPPER LOW WEAKENS SLIGHTLY TONIGHT AS IT REMAINS CENTERED OVER
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. HEIGHTS RISE SLIGHTLY ACROSS OUR AREA
TONIGHT.

AT THE SURFACE...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION REMAINING WEST OF THE AREA AS LOW PRESSURE REMAINS
STATIONARY OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

MODELS DO SHOW PLENTY OF DRYING TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW LOSES IT/S
GRIP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE NW. THESE
WINDS THOUGH ARE EXPECTED TO LIGHTEN LATE TONIGHT.

FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT AS A MOS BLEND WOULD SUPPORT
TEMPS CLOSE TO OR BELOW FREEZING. A FEW ZONES ARE BORDERLINE...BUT
WILL BE QUITE CLOSE OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN FORECAST DILEMMA IS THE
AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MIXING AND EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER WHICH COULD
IMPACT TEMPS. CLOUD COVER IS DISSIPATING AS EXPECTED...SO FEEL
FREEZE WARNING IS STILL WARRANTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MORE OF THE SAME AS UPPER LOW REMAINS SITUATED TO THE NORTHEAST.
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES SOMEWHAT...AND TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE.
EXPECT HIGH/S TO STILL FALL SHORT OF SEASONAL NORMS...BUT WILL BE
WARMER. WEAK WAA DUE TO RISING HEIGHTS AND MORE SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP
TEMPS WARM THROUGH THE 50S...APPROACHING 60 IN SPOTS.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE CENTRAL MID WEST
AND TRACKS TO OUR SOUTH. THIS LOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH MID WEST
SHORTWAVE...WHICH SHOULD GET BLOCKED BY THE PESKY LOW OFF THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. AS SUCH...DRY WEATHER IS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 40S IN AND AROUND
NYC TO THE LOWER 30S IN THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A BLOCKY PATTERN LOOKS TO DOMINATE MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD
ACROSS THE CONUS. A LARGE PERSISTENT CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO PLAGUE THE NORTHEAST US THROUGH TUESDAY WHICH WILL
RESULT IN GENERALLY MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS
POSSIBLE...MAINLY DURING THE DAY...AS SPOKES OF VORTICITY WITHIN
THE CYCLONIC FLOW ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA.

THIS CUTOFF FINALLY EXITS ON TUE WITH RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TUE
NIGHT AND WED. DRY CONDS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED.

MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE WITH HOW QUICKLY THE RIDGE AXIS
MOVES THROUGH AND THE NEXT TROUGH APPROACHES. GFS IS FASTER THAN THE
EC. WHAT BOTH MODELS DO AGREE ON IS THE PHASING OF A NRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WITH A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS RESULTING IN A
DEEP TROUGH THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUE NIGHT. THE SFC LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CUTOFF TRACKS THROUGH THE GULF COAST STATES TO
OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST ON THU AND CONTINUES ON A NE TRACK
THROUGH FRI. HOWEVER DUE TO THE DIFFERENCES ALOFT THE EC IS
STRONGER...SLOWER AND CLOSER TO THE COAST...BUT HAS TRENDED FURTHER
OFFSHORE THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...THAN THE GFS. HAVE MAINTAINED CHC POPS
AT THE COAST...AND HAVE SCALED BACK TO SCHC FURTHER INLAND.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVELS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL SLOWLY
WEAKEN TONIGHT...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST. THE HIGH WILL RETREAT FARTHER NORTH ON SATURDAY.
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY NW TO NNW FLOW WILL DIMINISH
AND BACK WNW OVERNIGHT. GUSTS SHOULD RESUME DURING THE
MORNING...THEN WINDS SHOULD BACK WSW TO SW AT NEAR COASTAL
TERMINALS IN THE AFTERNOON...AND W ELSEWHERE.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WED...
.SAT...VFR.
.SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.
.MON-TUE...POSSIBLE MVFR WITH SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT-WED...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT DUE TO GUSTY NW
WINDS THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SEAS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW 5 FEET OVER THE OCEAN WATERS...AND BELOW 2 TO 3 FT
ELSEWHERE. WINDS ABATE SOMEWHAT LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES SOMEWHAT.

THEREAFTER...A WEAK PRES GRADIENT WILL KEEP SUB-ADVY CONDS ACROSS
THE WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. MARGINAL NW GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE ON THE OCEAN WATERS AS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR ELEVATED FIRE GROWTH WILL EXIST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. WIND CRITERIA LOOKS TO FALL SHORT IN SEVERAL
AREAS...AND FORECAST RH VALUES FALL SHORT FOR SOME SPOTS. 1 AND
1O HOUR FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS HAVE LOWERED IN THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS...SO AN SPS COULD EVENTUALLY BE APPROPRIATE FOR SOME
LOCATIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS AND FORECAST LOWS FOR SATURDAY APRIL 25

NEWARK NJ...34/1936......33
BRIDGEPORT CT 32/1956....34
CENTRAL PARK NY 29/1919..36
LAGUARDIA NY 36/1971.....38
KENNEDY NY *37/1971......36
ISLIP NY 36/2012.........31

*AND PREVIOUS YEARS

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NYZ067>070-078>081.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NJZ002-004-103>105-
     107.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...24/PW
NEAR TERM...JC/PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...GOODMAN
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...24/PW
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KALY 250223
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1023 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE STORM IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NORTHWEST
FLOW AROUND IT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1023 PM EDT...CLOUDS STARTING TO ERODE FROM THE SOUTH AND
WEST AND DRIER AIR GRADUALLY WORKS INTO THE REGION. CYCLONIC FLOW
REGIME STILL PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION...BUT WILL BECOME MORE
NEUTRAL TOWARDS SATURDAY MORNING.

EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY IN MOST
AREAS BY LATE TONIGHT...BUT REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST DUE TO THE CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE
UPPER LOW WHICH WILL REMAIN OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

IT WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COLD TONIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
20S...WHICH IS ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ITS INFLUENCE ON OUR
REGION WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AS TEMPS ALOFT WARM A LITTLE AND
THE CYCLONIC FLOW WEAKENS. THIS WILL RESULT IN LESS CLOUDINESS
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...GENERALLY MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS...AND WARMER TEMPS. ALTHOUGH A SHOWERS OR SNOW SHOWERS
CAN NOT BE RULED OUT SATURDAY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...THE
COVERAGE OF ANY PCPN WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN IT WAS ON FRIDAY.

ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND...TEMPS WILL
STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL. HIGH SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 40S AND 50S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID
30S. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

ANOTHER IMPULSE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL BRING MORE CLOUDINESS AND A CHANCE OF
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND HAVE FORECAST POPS INCREASING
TO 25 TO 45 PERCENT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE PERIOD MARKS A TRANSITION TO A WARMING PATTERN.  WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
GIVEN NO ORGANIZED SYSTEMS DURING THE PERIOD...SHOWERS WILL BE MOST
LIKELY AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WHEN TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLEST...WITH ONLY SPOTTY SHOWERS POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SUNSHINE WILL BE LIMITED...BUT MOST ABUNDANT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO TONIGHT...BUT
WILL BECOME LESS CYCLONIC ON SATURDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
TO RESULT IN PLENTY OF CLOUDS IN VFR RANGE AROUND 4-6 KFT EARLY
TONIGHT...WITH CLOUDS BECOMING MORE SCATTERED LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING MAINLY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. SNOW SHOWERS
HAVE DIMINISHED SO DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
ENDING 00Z SUNDAY.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST AROUND 8-13 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS AT
KALB/KPSF...WITH WIND SPEEDS DECREASING TO 5-10 KTS OVERNIGHT.
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS AFTER
MIXING COMMENCES SATURDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
OUR REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
LOW ANCHORED ACROSS EASTERN CANADA.

THE RH SHOULD RECOVER TO 75-90 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN DROP INTO
THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE SAT AFTERNOON. WINDS SAT MAY STILL
OCCASIONALLY GUST UP TO 25-30 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION...MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF
SNOW TONIGHT...WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL
HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR
HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA (HSA).

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/JPV
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...GJM



000
FXUS61 KALY 250223
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1023 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE STORM IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NORTHWEST
FLOW AROUND IT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1023 PM EDT...CLOUDS STARTING TO ERODE FROM THE SOUTH AND
WEST AND DRIER AIR GRADUALLY WORKS INTO THE REGION. CYCLONIC FLOW
REGIME STILL PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION...BUT WILL BECOME MORE
NEUTRAL TOWARDS SATURDAY MORNING.

EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY IN MOST
AREAS BY LATE TONIGHT...BUT REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST DUE TO THE CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE
UPPER LOW WHICH WILL REMAIN OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

IT WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COLD TONIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
20S...WHICH IS ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ITS INFLUENCE ON OUR
REGION WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AS TEMPS ALOFT WARM A LITTLE AND
THE CYCLONIC FLOW WEAKENS. THIS WILL RESULT IN LESS CLOUDINESS
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...GENERALLY MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS...AND WARMER TEMPS. ALTHOUGH A SHOWERS OR SNOW SHOWERS
CAN NOT BE RULED OUT SATURDAY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...THE
COVERAGE OF ANY PCPN WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN IT WAS ON FRIDAY.

ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND...TEMPS WILL
STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL. HIGH SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 40S AND 50S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID
30S. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

ANOTHER IMPULSE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL BRING MORE CLOUDINESS AND A CHANCE OF
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND HAVE FORECAST POPS INCREASING
TO 25 TO 45 PERCENT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE PERIOD MARKS A TRANSITION TO A WARMING PATTERN.  WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
GIVEN NO ORGANIZED SYSTEMS DURING THE PERIOD...SHOWERS WILL BE MOST
LIKELY AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WHEN TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLEST...WITH ONLY SPOTTY SHOWERS POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SUNSHINE WILL BE LIMITED...BUT MOST ABUNDANT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO TONIGHT...BUT
WILL BECOME LESS CYCLONIC ON SATURDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
TO RESULT IN PLENTY OF CLOUDS IN VFR RANGE AROUND 4-6 KFT EARLY
TONIGHT...WITH CLOUDS BECOMING MORE SCATTERED LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING MAINLY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. SNOW SHOWERS
HAVE DIMINISHED SO DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
ENDING 00Z SUNDAY.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST AROUND 8-13 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS AT
KALB/KPSF...WITH WIND SPEEDS DECREASING TO 5-10 KTS OVERNIGHT.
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS AFTER
MIXING COMMENCES SATURDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
OUR REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
LOW ANCHORED ACROSS EASTERN CANADA.

THE RH SHOULD RECOVER TO 75-90 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN DROP INTO
THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE SAT AFTERNOON. WINDS SAT MAY STILL
OCCASIONALLY GUST UP TO 25-30 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION...MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF
SNOW TONIGHT...WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL
HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR
HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA (HSA).

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/JPV
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...GJM




000
FXUS61 KALY 250223
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1023 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE STORM IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NORTHWEST
FLOW AROUND IT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1023 PM EDT...CLOUDS STARTING TO ERODE FROM THE SOUTH AND
WEST AND DRIER AIR GRADUALLY WORKS INTO THE REGION. CYCLONIC FLOW
REGIME STILL PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION...BUT WILL BECOME MORE
NEUTRAL TOWARDS SATURDAY MORNING.

EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY IN MOST
AREAS BY LATE TONIGHT...BUT REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST DUE TO THE CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE
UPPER LOW WHICH WILL REMAIN OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

IT WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COLD TONIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
20S...WHICH IS ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ITS INFLUENCE ON OUR
REGION WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AS TEMPS ALOFT WARM A LITTLE AND
THE CYCLONIC FLOW WEAKENS. THIS WILL RESULT IN LESS CLOUDINESS
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...GENERALLY MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS...AND WARMER TEMPS. ALTHOUGH A SHOWERS OR SNOW SHOWERS
CAN NOT BE RULED OUT SATURDAY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...THE
COVERAGE OF ANY PCPN WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN IT WAS ON FRIDAY.

ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND...TEMPS WILL
STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL. HIGH SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 40S AND 50S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID
30S. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

ANOTHER IMPULSE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL BRING MORE CLOUDINESS AND A CHANCE OF
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND HAVE FORECAST POPS INCREASING
TO 25 TO 45 PERCENT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE PERIOD MARKS A TRANSITION TO A WARMING PATTERN.  WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
GIVEN NO ORGANIZED SYSTEMS DURING THE PERIOD...SHOWERS WILL BE MOST
LIKELY AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WHEN TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLEST...WITH ONLY SPOTTY SHOWERS POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SUNSHINE WILL BE LIMITED...BUT MOST ABUNDANT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO TONIGHT...BUT
WILL BECOME LESS CYCLONIC ON SATURDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
TO RESULT IN PLENTY OF CLOUDS IN VFR RANGE AROUND 4-6 KFT EARLY
TONIGHT...WITH CLOUDS BECOMING MORE SCATTERED LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING MAINLY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. SNOW SHOWERS
HAVE DIMINISHED SO DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
ENDING 00Z SUNDAY.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST AROUND 8-13 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS AT
KALB/KPSF...WITH WIND SPEEDS DECREASING TO 5-10 KTS OVERNIGHT.
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS AFTER
MIXING COMMENCES SATURDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
OUR REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
LOW ANCHORED ACROSS EASTERN CANADA.

THE RH SHOULD RECOVER TO 75-90 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN DROP INTO
THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE SAT AFTERNOON. WINDS SAT MAY STILL
OCCASIONALLY GUST UP TO 25-30 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION...MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF
SNOW TONIGHT...WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL
HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR
HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA (HSA).

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/JPV
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...GJM




000
FXUS61 KBOX 250215
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1015 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH
SPOTTY SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES. PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF NEXT
WEEK AS WELL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
1015 PM UPDATE...

LATEST SATELLITE DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW A SLOW EROSION OF THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD POOL ALOFT.
LIKE LAST NIGHT...THIS WILL BE KEY TO LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
MORNING. LIKE LAST NIGHT...DEW POINTS ARE LINGERING AROUND 20. IF
WE CAN KEEP THE SKIES CLEAR FOR LONG ENOUGH...THEN FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE REALIZED. HAVE MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
THE CURRENT FREEZE WARNING AT THIS TIME ACROSS NORTHERN CT. LESS
CLOUDS OVER RI...SO SLIGHTLY GREATER CONFIDENCE THERE.

WE STILL EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH DIMINISHING WINDS OVERNIGHT.
COLD POOL ALOFT ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES /MAINLY
AROUND OR AFTER MIDNIGHT/ WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO EVENTUALLY
FALL.

HAVE UPDATED NEAR TERM CONDITIONS TO REFLECT LATEST OBSERVED
TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...
LINGERING CLOUD SHIELD UNDER THE UPPER LOW AND COLD POOL...BUT
THIS SHOULD START TO LIFT OUT TO THE NORTH AND EAST SOMEWHAT. SO
WE EXPECT AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING TONIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCE
OVER CONNECTICUT. PRESSURE GRADIENT STAYS ENOUGH TO KEEP THE AIR
MOVING...SO FROST IS NOT LIKELY EXCEPT POSSIBLY IN THE MOST
SHELTERED OF LOCATIONS THAT CLEAR. ON THE OTHER HAND TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT OR PERHAPS A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER.
EXPECTED RANGE IS IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S...AND FREEZING TEMPS IN
PARTS OF THE ACTIVE GROWING ZONE /CT-RI-SOUTHEAST MA/. WE PLAN ON
CONVERTING THE EXISTING FREEZE WATCH TO A FREEZE WARNING FOR
NORTHERN CT AND NORTHWEST RI.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...UPPER CLOUD SHIELD AND COLD POOL WILL BE FOCUSED OVER
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO AFFECT US. DAYTIME
HEATING AND A SHORTWAVE CYCLING AROUND THE LOW MAY PUSH CLOUDS
BACK OUR WAY DURING THE DAY. THE SURFACE LAYER WILL BE DRIER...SO
MOST ATTEMPTS AT PRECIPITATION SHOULD EVAPORATE ON THE WAY DOWN.
TEMPS AT 850 MB ARE FORECAST AROUND -2C...WHICH SUPPORTS MAX SFC
TEMPS IN THE 50S. WINDS ALOFT IN THE MIXED LAYER REACH 20
KNOTS...SO EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF GUSTS EITHER SIDE OF 20.

SATURDAY NIGHT...

WEAK RIDGE BUILDS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND PROVIDING CLEARING
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
30S...SO MIN SFC TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
  WEEK
* SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND INTO MID-NEXT WEEK
* LOW CONFIDENCE ON COASTAL SYSTEM THU OR FRI

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL BLOCKING PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE LOWER 48 WITH FEW CHANGES EXPECTED INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. HOWEVER...NOTING SOME SUBTLE CHANGES TOWARD NEXT THU/FRI
WHICH ARE SHOWING UP AT LEAST ON THE LAST COUPLE OF MEDIUM RANGE
OPERATIONAL RUNS OF BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF THAT ARE STARTING TO
SIGNAL THE BREAKING DOWN OF THE UPPER TROUGH PATTERN. THE GEFS
AND EC ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO KEEP SLOW PROGRESSION OF SYSTEMS...SO
STILL QUITE A BIT OF TIMING AND TRACK ISSUES TO CONTEND WITH THIS
FORECAST CYCLE.

NEGATIVE NAO/AO PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE...KEEPING BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS AND PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK AS CUTOFF H5 LOW PRES CONTINUES TO SIT AND SPIN
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN QUEBEC AND THE MARITIMES. MODELS
SIGNALING A STRONGER SHORT WAVE THAT WILL DROP S ACROSS THE REGION
OUT OF EASTERN CANADA IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL DROP ACROSS THE
REGION BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALONG WITH AN ENHANCED
N-NE WIND FLOW. ONCE THIS SHORT WAVE MOVES S...THE UPPER SYSTEM
MAY START TO SHIFT E BUT TIMING IS STILL VERY MUCH IN QUESTION DUE
TO WIDE MODEL SOLUTION SPREAD BEYOND TUESDAY.

ANOTHER QUESTION AT THIS POINT IS THE POTENTIAL COASTAL SYSTEM
THAT WORKS OFF THE SE U.S. COAST LATE WED OR THU. THE 12Z MODEL
RUNS CONTINUE TO KEEP THE BLOCKING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WHICH MAY
ACTUALLY SHUNT THE COASTAL SYSTEM S OF THE REGION. NOTING A RATHER
STRONG SYSTEM ON THE 12Z ECMWF...WHICH TENDS TO DEVELOP AND SLOW
THE SYSTEM AS IT PASSES S OF NEW ENGLAND THU NIGHT OR FRIDAY...
WHILE THE GFS IS A MORE OPEN WAVE BUT STILL PUSHES OFFSHORE. WILL
STILL NEED TO WATCH FUTURE MODEL TRENDS BEFORE WRITING THIS ONE
OFF FOR NOW.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INTO TUESDAY...WHICH SHOWED
GOOD CONSISTENCY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...THEN TRANSITIONED
OVER TO ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.

DETAILS...

* SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WHILE THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO BRING A FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS WITH
THE COLD POOL ALOFT WHICH ACTUALLY LOOKS TO SLOWLY SHIFT E LATER
IN THE DAY. SO...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS...SKIES SHOULD START OFF PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY THEN CLOUDS
DEVELOP ALONG WITH A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS ESPECIALLY NEAR AND N OF
THE MASS PIKE CLOSER TO THE SHORT WAVE THAT BEGINS TO SHIFT OUT OF
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE DAY.

EXPECT TEMPS TO TOP OFF MAINLY IN THE 50S...BUT IF A LITTLE MORE
SUN WORKS THROUGH THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE LOWER CT VALLEY...READINGS
MAY TOUCH 60 IN A FEW SPOTS.

* MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

RATHER POTENT H5 SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED BACKDOOR /OF SORTS/
SURFACE REFLECTION ROTATE SW ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME. LOOKS LIKE THE BEST ENERGY AND PRECIP CHANCES WILL
PUSH ACROSS MON NIGHT THROUGH INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS ALSO
SHIFT TO N-NE AND INCREASE. GUSTS UP TO AROUND 25 KT POSSIBLE
MAINLY ALONG E COASTAL AREAS. MAY SEE SOME APPRECIABLE RAINFALL
WITH QPF OF 0.2 TO 0.3 INCHES ALONG THE E COAST AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES WITH THE ONSHORE WIND.

* WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM THAT
MAY MAKE THE TURN UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. HOWEVER...12Z MODEL
TRENDS ARE TENDING TO KEEP THIS SYSTEM TO THE S THANKS TO THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT MAY PUSH THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM OFFSHORE. THIS
THIS WAS A RECENT TREND THOUGH...DID KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING FROM
THU AFTERNOON THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF FRIDAY DUE TO THE MODEL/S
HANDLING OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. TEMPS ARE ALSO
TRYING TO CREEP BACK CLOSER TO SEASONAL LEVELS DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. LEFTOVER W-NW WIND GUSTING TO 20
KT TOWARD THE COASTS...DIMINISHING LATE.

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR IN SPOTTY
SHOWERS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING AROUND
20 KNOTS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH LIGHT WIND.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE
WEDNESDAY.

SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCT SHOWERS.
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE ALONG E COAST.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE WITH BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. N-NE WINDS INCREASE ESPECIALLY ALONG E COAST.
MAY SEE GUSTS TO 20-25 KT FROM PLYMOUTH COUNTY S TO CAPE COD AND
THE ISLANDS MAINLY MON NIGHT AND TUE.

WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. LIGHT N-NW WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS GUST 20 TO 25 KNOTS...WITH STRONGEST GUSTS
OFFSHORE. SEAS LINGER NEAR 5 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH
SATURDAY...THEN SUBSIDE. SEAS BELOW 5 FEET ALL OTHER WATERS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. CANCELLED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE
SOUNDS OF RI THIS EVENING...WHERE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO LESS
THAN 25 KT.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LINGERS ON THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING DUE TO SEAS AND OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS. SCA ALSO
LINGERS ON RI AND BLOCK ISLAND SOUNDS TONIGHT MOSTLY DUE TO WINDS
AT OR NEAR 25 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. EXPECT NW
WINDS TO SHIFT TO NE BUT REMAIN BELOW 15 KT. SEA BREEZES POSSIBLE
ALONG E COAST.

MONDAY...N-NW WINDS INCREASE BUT REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT. SEAS
REMAIN BELOW 5 FT.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...N-NE WINDS INCREASE...GUSTING
TO 25-30 KT. SEAS BUILD UP TO 5-7 FT...HIGHEST ON THE EASTERN
OUTER WATERS DURING TUE. MODERATE PROBABILITY FOR SMALL CRAFT.

WEDNESDAY...WINDS BECOME NW AND DIMINISH. MAY SEE LEFTOVER GUSTS
TO 25 KT EARLY. SEAS WILL REMAIN AOA 5 FT MAINLY ON THE OUTER
WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...NONE.
RI...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR RIZ001-003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB/BELK/EVT
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/BELK/EVT
MARINE...WTB/BELK/EVT




000
FXUS61 KOKX 250214
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1014 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PERSIST OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF COAST STATES WILL TRACK TO
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY THURSDAY AND CONTINUING NORTHEAST INTO
THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
UPDATES MADE MAINLY TO CLOUD COVER FOR THIS EVENING. FORECAST
OTHERWISE ON TRACK.

UPPER LOW WEAKENS SLIGHTLY TONIGHT AS IT REMAINS CENTERED OVER
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. HEIGHTS RISE SLIGHTLY ACROSS OUR AREA
TONIGHT.

AT THE SURFACE...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION REMAINING WEST OF THE AREA AS LOW PRESSURE REMAINS
STATIONARY OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

MODELS DO SHOW PLENTY OF DRYING TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW LOSES IT/S
GRIP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE NW. THESE
WINDS THOUGH ARE EXPECTED TO LIGHTEN LATE TONIGHT.

FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT AS A MOS BLEND WOULD SUPPORT
TEMPS CLOSE TO OR BELOW FREEZING. A FEW ZONES ARE BORDERLINE...BUT
WILL BE QUITE CLOSE OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN FORECAST DILEMMA IS THE
AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MIXING AND EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER WHICH COULD
IMPACT TEMPS. CLOUD COVER IS DISSIPATING AS EXPECTED...SO FEEL
FREEZE WARNING IS STILL WARRANTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MORE OF THE SAME AS UPPER LOW REMAINS SITUATED TO THE NORTHEAST.
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES SOMEWHAT...AND TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE.
EXPECT HIGH/S TO STILL FALL SHORT OF SEASONAL NORMS...BUT WILL BE
WARMER. WEAK WAA DUE TO RISING HEIGHTS AND MORE SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP
TEMPS WARM THROUGH THE 50S...APPROACHING 60 IN SPOTS.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE CENTRAL MID WEST
AND TRACKS TO OUR SOUTH. THIS LOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH MID WEST
SHORTWAVE...WHICH SHOULD GET BLOCKED BY THE PESKY LOW OFF THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. AS SUCH...DRY WEATHER IS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 40S IN AND AROUND
NYC TO THE LOWER 30S IN THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A BLOCKY PATTERN LOOKS TO DOMINATE MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD
ACROSS THE CONUS. A LARGE PERSISTENT CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO PLAGUE THE NORTHEAST US THROUGH TUESDAY WHICH WILL
RESULT IN GENERALLY MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS
POSSIBLE...MAINLY DURING THE DAY...AS SPOKES OF VORTICITY WITHIN
THE CYCLONIC FLOW ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA.

THIS CUTOFF FINALLY EXITS ON TUE WITH RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TUE
NIGHT AND WED. DRY CONDS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED.

MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE WITH HOW QUICKLY THE RIDGE AXIS
MOVES THROUGH AND THE NEXT TROUGH APPROACHES. GFS IS FASTER THAN THE
EC. WHAT BOTH MODELS DO AGREE ON IS THE PHASING OF A NRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WITH A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS RESULTING IN A
DEEP TROUGH THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUE NIGHT. THE SFC LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CUTOFF TRACKS THROUGH THE GULF COAST STATES TO
OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST ON THU AND CONTINUES ON A NE TRACK
THROUGH FRI. HOWEVER DUE TO THE DIFFERENCES ALOFT THE EC IS
STRONGER...SLOWER AND CLOSER TO THE COAST...BUT HAS TRENDED FURTHER
OFFSHORE THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...THAN THE GFS. HAVE MAINTAINED CHC POPS
AT THE COAST...AND HAVE SCALED BACK TO SCHC FURTHER INLAND.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVELS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL SLOWLY
WEAKEN TONIGHT...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST. THE HIGH WILL RETREAT FARTHER NORTH ON SATURDAY. VFR
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY NW TO NNW FLOW WILL DIMINISH AND
BACK WNW LATER TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS RESUMING DURING THE
MORNING...THEN BACK W TO WSW IN THE AFTERNOON.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: OCNL GUSTS JUST OVER 30 KT BEFORE 03Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: OCNL GUSTS UP TO 30 KT BEFORE 03Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WED...
.SAT...VFR.
.SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.
.MON-TUE...POSSIBLE MVFR WITH SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT-WED...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT DUE TO GUSTY NW
WINDS THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SEAS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW 5 FEET OVER THE OCEAN WATERS...AND BELOW 2 TO 3 FT
ELSEWHERE. WINDS ABATE SOMEWHAT LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES SOMEWHAT.

THEREAFTER...A WEAK PRES GRADIENT WILL KEEP SUB-ADVY CONDS ACROSS
THE WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. MARGINAL NW GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE ON THE OCEAN WATERS AS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR ELEVATED FIRE GROWTH WILL EXIST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. WIND CRITERIA LOOKS TO FALL SHORT IN SEVERAL
AREAS...AND FORECAST RH VALUES FALL SHORT FOR SOME SPOTS. 1 AND
1O HOUR FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS HAVE LOWERED IN THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS...SO AN SPS COULD EVENTUALLY BE APPROPRIATE FOR SOME
LOCATIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS AND FORECAST LOWS FOR SATURDAY APRIL 25

NEWARK NJ...34/1936......33
BRIDGEPORT CT 32/1956....34
CENTRAL PARK NY 29/1919..36
LAGUARDIA NY 36/1971.....38
KENNEDY NY *37/1971......36
ISLIP NY 36/2012.........31

*AND PREVIOUS YEARS

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NYZ067>070-078>081.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NJZ002-004-103>105-
     107.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...24/PW
NEAR TERM...JC/PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...GOODMAN
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...24/PW
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KOKX 250214
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1014 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PERSIST OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF COAST STATES WILL TRACK TO
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY THURSDAY AND CONTINUING NORTHEAST INTO
THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
UPDATES MADE MAINLY TO CLOUD COVER FOR THIS EVENING. FORECAST
OTHERWISE ON TRACK.

UPPER LOW WEAKENS SLIGHTLY TONIGHT AS IT REMAINS CENTERED OVER
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. HEIGHTS RISE SLIGHTLY ACROSS OUR AREA
TONIGHT.

AT THE SURFACE...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION REMAINING WEST OF THE AREA AS LOW PRESSURE REMAINS
STATIONARY OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

MODELS DO SHOW PLENTY OF DRYING TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW LOSES IT/S
GRIP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE NW. THESE
WINDS THOUGH ARE EXPECTED TO LIGHTEN LATE TONIGHT.

FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT AS A MOS BLEND WOULD SUPPORT
TEMPS CLOSE TO OR BELOW FREEZING. A FEW ZONES ARE BORDERLINE...BUT
WILL BE QUITE CLOSE OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN FORECAST DILEMMA IS THE
AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MIXING AND EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER WHICH COULD
IMPACT TEMPS. CLOUD COVER IS DISSIPATING AS EXPECTED...SO FEEL
FREEZE WARNING IS STILL WARRANTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MORE OF THE SAME AS UPPER LOW REMAINS SITUATED TO THE NORTHEAST.
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES SOMEWHAT...AND TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE.
EXPECT HIGH/S TO STILL FALL SHORT OF SEASONAL NORMS...BUT WILL BE
WARMER. WEAK WAA DUE TO RISING HEIGHTS AND MORE SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP
TEMPS WARM THROUGH THE 50S...APPROACHING 60 IN SPOTS.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE CENTRAL MID WEST
AND TRACKS TO OUR SOUTH. THIS LOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH MID WEST
SHORTWAVE...WHICH SHOULD GET BLOCKED BY THE PESKY LOW OFF THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. AS SUCH...DRY WEATHER IS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 40S IN AND AROUND
NYC TO THE LOWER 30S IN THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A BLOCKY PATTERN LOOKS TO DOMINATE MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD
ACROSS THE CONUS. A LARGE PERSISTENT CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO PLAGUE THE NORTHEAST US THROUGH TUESDAY WHICH WILL
RESULT IN GENERALLY MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS
POSSIBLE...MAINLY DURING THE DAY...AS SPOKES OF VORTICITY WITHIN
THE CYCLONIC FLOW ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA.

THIS CUTOFF FINALLY EXITS ON TUE WITH RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TUE
NIGHT AND WED. DRY CONDS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED.

MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE WITH HOW QUICKLY THE RIDGE AXIS
MOVES THROUGH AND THE NEXT TROUGH APPROACHES. GFS IS FASTER THAN THE
EC. WHAT BOTH MODELS DO AGREE ON IS THE PHASING OF A NRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WITH A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS RESULTING IN A
DEEP TROUGH THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUE NIGHT. THE SFC LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CUTOFF TRACKS THROUGH THE GULF COAST STATES TO
OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST ON THU AND CONTINUES ON A NE TRACK
THROUGH FRI. HOWEVER DUE TO THE DIFFERENCES ALOFT THE EC IS
STRONGER...SLOWER AND CLOSER TO THE COAST...BUT HAS TRENDED FURTHER
OFFSHORE THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...THAN THE GFS. HAVE MAINTAINED CHC POPS
AT THE COAST...AND HAVE SCALED BACK TO SCHC FURTHER INLAND.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVELS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL SLOWLY
WEAKEN TONIGHT...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST. THE HIGH WILL RETREAT FARTHER NORTH ON SATURDAY. VFR
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY NW TO NNW FLOW WILL DIMINISH AND
BACK WNW LATER TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS RESUMING DURING THE
MORNING...THEN BACK W TO WSW IN THE AFTERNOON.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: OCNL GUSTS JUST OVER 30 KT BEFORE 03Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: OCNL GUSTS UP TO 30 KT BEFORE 03Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WED...
.SAT...VFR.
.SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.
.MON-TUE...POSSIBLE MVFR WITH SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT-WED...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT DUE TO GUSTY NW
WINDS THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SEAS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW 5 FEET OVER THE OCEAN WATERS...AND BELOW 2 TO 3 FT
ELSEWHERE. WINDS ABATE SOMEWHAT LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES SOMEWHAT.

THEREAFTER...A WEAK PRES GRADIENT WILL KEEP SUB-ADVY CONDS ACROSS
THE WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. MARGINAL NW GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE ON THE OCEAN WATERS AS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR ELEVATED FIRE GROWTH WILL EXIST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. WIND CRITERIA LOOKS TO FALL SHORT IN SEVERAL
AREAS...AND FORECAST RH VALUES FALL SHORT FOR SOME SPOTS. 1 AND
1O HOUR FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS HAVE LOWERED IN THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS...SO AN SPS COULD EVENTUALLY BE APPROPRIATE FOR SOME
LOCATIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS AND FORECAST LOWS FOR SATURDAY APRIL 25

NEWARK NJ...34/1936......33
BRIDGEPORT CT 32/1956....34
CENTRAL PARK NY 29/1919..36
LAGUARDIA NY 36/1971.....38
KENNEDY NY *37/1971......36
ISLIP NY 36/2012.........31

*AND PREVIOUS YEARS

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NYZ067>070-078>081.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NJZ002-004-103>105-
     107.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...24/PW
NEAR TERM...JC/PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...GOODMAN
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...24/PW
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KOKX 250214
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1014 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PERSIST OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF COAST STATES WILL TRACK TO
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY THURSDAY AND CONTINUING NORTHEAST INTO
THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
UPDATES MADE MAINLY TO CLOUD COVER FOR THIS EVENING. FORECAST
OTHERWISE ON TRACK.

UPPER LOW WEAKENS SLIGHTLY TONIGHT AS IT REMAINS CENTERED OVER
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. HEIGHTS RISE SLIGHTLY ACROSS OUR AREA
TONIGHT.

AT THE SURFACE...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION REMAINING WEST OF THE AREA AS LOW PRESSURE REMAINS
STATIONARY OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

MODELS DO SHOW PLENTY OF DRYING TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW LOSES IT/S
GRIP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE NW. THESE
WINDS THOUGH ARE EXPECTED TO LIGHTEN LATE TONIGHT.

FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT AS A MOS BLEND WOULD SUPPORT
TEMPS CLOSE TO OR BELOW FREEZING. A FEW ZONES ARE BORDERLINE...BUT
WILL BE QUITE CLOSE OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN FORECAST DILEMMA IS THE
AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MIXING AND EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER WHICH COULD
IMPACT TEMPS. CLOUD COVER IS DISSIPATING AS EXPECTED...SO FEEL
FREEZE WARNING IS STILL WARRANTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MORE OF THE SAME AS UPPER LOW REMAINS SITUATED TO THE NORTHEAST.
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES SOMEWHAT...AND TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE.
EXPECT HIGH/S TO STILL FALL SHORT OF SEASONAL NORMS...BUT WILL BE
WARMER. WEAK WAA DUE TO RISING HEIGHTS AND MORE SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP
TEMPS WARM THROUGH THE 50S...APPROACHING 60 IN SPOTS.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE CENTRAL MID WEST
AND TRACKS TO OUR SOUTH. THIS LOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH MID WEST
SHORTWAVE...WHICH SHOULD GET BLOCKED BY THE PESKY LOW OFF THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. AS SUCH...DRY WEATHER IS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 40S IN AND AROUND
NYC TO THE LOWER 30S IN THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A BLOCKY PATTERN LOOKS TO DOMINATE MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD
ACROSS THE CONUS. A LARGE PERSISTENT CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO PLAGUE THE NORTHEAST US THROUGH TUESDAY WHICH WILL
RESULT IN GENERALLY MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS
POSSIBLE...MAINLY DURING THE DAY...AS SPOKES OF VORTICITY WITHIN
THE CYCLONIC FLOW ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA.

THIS CUTOFF FINALLY EXITS ON TUE WITH RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TUE
NIGHT AND WED. DRY CONDS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED.

MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE WITH HOW QUICKLY THE RIDGE AXIS
MOVES THROUGH AND THE NEXT TROUGH APPROACHES. GFS IS FASTER THAN THE
EC. WHAT BOTH MODELS DO AGREE ON IS THE PHASING OF A NRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WITH A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS RESULTING IN A
DEEP TROUGH THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUE NIGHT. THE SFC LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CUTOFF TRACKS THROUGH THE GULF COAST STATES TO
OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST ON THU AND CONTINUES ON A NE TRACK
THROUGH FRI. HOWEVER DUE TO THE DIFFERENCES ALOFT THE EC IS
STRONGER...SLOWER AND CLOSER TO THE COAST...BUT HAS TRENDED FURTHER
OFFSHORE THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...THAN THE GFS. HAVE MAINTAINED CHC POPS
AT THE COAST...AND HAVE SCALED BACK TO SCHC FURTHER INLAND.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVELS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL SLOWLY
WEAKEN TONIGHT...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST. THE HIGH WILL RETREAT FARTHER NORTH ON SATURDAY. VFR
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY NW TO NNW FLOW WILL DIMINISH AND
BACK WNW LATER TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS RESUMING DURING THE
MORNING...THEN BACK W TO WSW IN THE AFTERNOON.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: OCNL GUSTS JUST OVER 30 KT BEFORE 03Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: OCNL GUSTS UP TO 30 KT BEFORE 03Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WED...
.SAT...VFR.
.SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.
.MON-TUE...POSSIBLE MVFR WITH SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT-WED...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT DUE TO GUSTY NW
WINDS THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SEAS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW 5 FEET OVER THE OCEAN WATERS...AND BELOW 2 TO 3 FT
ELSEWHERE. WINDS ABATE SOMEWHAT LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES SOMEWHAT.

THEREAFTER...A WEAK PRES GRADIENT WILL KEEP SUB-ADVY CONDS ACROSS
THE WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. MARGINAL NW GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE ON THE OCEAN WATERS AS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR ELEVATED FIRE GROWTH WILL EXIST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. WIND CRITERIA LOOKS TO FALL SHORT IN SEVERAL
AREAS...AND FORECAST RH VALUES FALL SHORT FOR SOME SPOTS. 1 AND
1O HOUR FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS HAVE LOWERED IN THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS...SO AN SPS COULD EVENTUALLY BE APPROPRIATE FOR SOME
LOCATIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS AND FORECAST LOWS FOR SATURDAY APRIL 25

NEWARK NJ...34/1936......33
BRIDGEPORT CT 32/1956....34
CENTRAL PARK NY 29/1919..36
LAGUARDIA NY 36/1971.....38
KENNEDY NY *37/1971......36
ISLIP NY 36/2012.........31

*AND PREVIOUS YEARS

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NYZ067>070-078>081.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NJZ002-004-103>105-
     107.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...24/PW
NEAR TERM...JC/PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...GOODMAN
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...24/PW
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KOKX 250214
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1014 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PERSIST OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF COAST STATES WILL TRACK TO
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY THURSDAY AND CONTINUING NORTHEAST INTO
THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
UPDATES MADE MAINLY TO CLOUD COVER FOR THIS EVENING. FORECAST
OTHERWISE ON TRACK.

UPPER LOW WEAKENS SLIGHTLY TONIGHT AS IT REMAINS CENTERED OVER
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. HEIGHTS RISE SLIGHTLY ACROSS OUR AREA
TONIGHT.

AT THE SURFACE...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION REMAINING WEST OF THE AREA AS LOW PRESSURE REMAINS
STATIONARY OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

MODELS DO SHOW PLENTY OF DRYING TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW LOSES IT/S
GRIP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE NW. THESE
WINDS THOUGH ARE EXPECTED TO LIGHTEN LATE TONIGHT.

FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT AS A MOS BLEND WOULD SUPPORT
TEMPS CLOSE TO OR BELOW FREEZING. A FEW ZONES ARE BORDERLINE...BUT
WILL BE QUITE CLOSE OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN FORECAST DILEMMA IS THE
AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MIXING AND EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER WHICH COULD
IMPACT TEMPS. CLOUD COVER IS DISSIPATING AS EXPECTED...SO FEEL
FREEZE WARNING IS STILL WARRANTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MORE OF THE SAME AS UPPER LOW REMAINS SITUATED TO THE NORTHEAST.
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES SOMEWHAT...AND TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE.
EXPECT HIGH/S TO STILL FALL SHORT OF SEASONAL NORMS...BUT WILL BE
WARMER. WEAK WAA DUE TO RISING HEIGHTS AND MORE SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP
TEMPS WARM THROUGH THE 50S...APPROACHING 60 IN SPOTS.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE CENTRAL MID WEST
AND TRACKS TO OUR SOUTH. THIS LOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH MID WEST
SHORTWAVE...WHICH SHOULD GET BLOCKED BY THE PESKY LOW OFF THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. AS SUCH...DRY WEATHER IS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 40S IN AND AROUND
NYC TO THE LOWER 30S IN THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A BLOCKY PATTERN LOOKS TO DOMINATE MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD
ACROSS THE CONUS. A LARGE PERSISTENT CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO PLAGUE THE NORTHEAST US THROUGH TUESDAY WHICH WILL
RESULT IN GENERALLY MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS
POSSIBLE...MAINLY DURING THE DAY...AS SPOKES OF VORTICITY WITHIN
THE CYCLONIC FLOW ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA.

THIS CUTOFF FINALLY EXITS ON TUE WITH RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TUE
NIGHT AND WED. DRY CONDS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED.

MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE WITH HOW QUICKLY THE RIDGE AXIS
MOVES THROUGH AND THE NEXT TROUGH APPROACHES. GFS IS FASTER THAN THE
EC. WHAT BOTH MODELS DO AGREE ON IS THE PHASING OF A NRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WITH A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS RESULTING IN A
DEEP TROUGH THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUE NIGHT. THE SFC LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CUTOFF TRACKS THROUGH THE GULF COAST STATES TO
OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST ON THU AND CONTINUES ON A NE TRACK
THROUGH FRI. HOWEVER DUE TO THE DIFFERENCES ALOFT THE EC IS
STRONGER...SLOWER AND CLOSER TO THE COAST...BUT HAS TRENDED FURTHER
OFFSHORE THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...THAN THE GFS. HAVE MAINTAINED CHC POPS
AT THE COAST...AND HAVE SCALED BACK TO SCHC FURTHER INLAND.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVELS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL SLOWLY
WEAKEN TONIGHT...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST. THE HIGH WILL RETREAT FARTHER NORTH ON SATURDAY. VFR
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY NW TO NNW FLOW WILL DIMINISH AND
BACK WNW LATER TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS RESUMING DURING THE
MORNING...THEN BACK W TO WSW IN THE AFTERNOON.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: OCNL GUSTS JUST OVER 30 KT BEFORE 03Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: OCNL GUSTS UP TO 30 KT BEFORE 03Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WED...
.SAT...VFR.
.SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.
.MON-TUE...POSSIBLE MVFR WITH SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT-WED...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT DUE TO GUSTY NW
WINDS THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SEAS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW 5 FEET OVER THE OCEAN WATERS...AND BELOW 2 TO 3 FT
ELSEWHERE. WINDS ABATE SOMEWHAT LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES SOMEWHAT.

THEREAFTER...A WEAK PRES GRADIENT WILL KEEP SUB-ADVY CONDS ACROSS
THE WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. MARGINAL NW GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE ON THE OCEAN WATERS AS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR ELEVATED FIRE GROWTH WILL EXIST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. WIND CRITERIA LOOKS TO FALL SHORT IN SEVERAL
AREAS...AND FORECAST RH VALUES FALL SHORT FOR SOME SPOTS. 1 AND
1O HOUR FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS HAVE LOWERED IN THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS...SO AN SPS COULD EVENTUALLY BE APPROPRIATE FOR SOME
LOCATIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS AND FORECAST LOWS FOR SATURDAY APRIL 25

NEWARK NJ...34/1936......33
BRIDGEPORT CT 32/1956....34
CENTRAL PARK NY 29/1919..36
LAGUARDIA NY 36/1971.....38
KENNEDY NY *37/1971......36
ISLIP NY 36/2012.........31

*AND PREVIOUS YEARS

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NYZ067>070-078>081.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NJZ002-004-103>105-
     107.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...24/PW
NEAR TERM...JC/PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...GOODMAN
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...24/PW
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KOKX 250214
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1014 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PERSIST OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF COAST STATES WILL TRACK TO
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY THURSDAY AND CONTINUING NORTHEAST INTO
THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
UPDATES MADE MAINLY TO CLOUD COVER FOR THIS EVENING. FORECAST
OTHERWISE ON TRACK.

UPPER LOW WEAKENS SLIGHTLY TONIGHT AS IT REMAINS CENTERED OVER
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. HEIGHTS RISE SLIGHTLY ACROSS OUR AREA
TONIGHT.

AT THE SURFACE...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION REMAINING WEST OF THE AREA AS LOW PRESSURE REMAINS
STATIONARY OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

MODELS DO SHOW PLENTY OF DRYING TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW LOSES IT/S
GRIP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE NW. THESE
WINDS THOUGH ARE EXPECTED TO LIGHTEN LATE TONIGHT.

FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT AS A MOS BLEND WOULD SUPPORT
TEMPS CLOSE TO OR BELOW FREEZING. A FEW ZONES ARE BORDERLINE...BUT
WILL BE QUITE CLOSE OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN FORECAST DILEMMA IS THE
AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MIXING AND EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER WHICH COULD
IMPACT TEMPS. CLOUD COVER IS DISSIPATING AS EXPECTED...SO FEEL
FREEZE WARNING IS STILL WARRANTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MORE OF THE SAME AS UPPER LOW REMAINS SITUATED TO THE NORTHEAST.
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES SOMEWHAT...AND TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE.
EXPECT HIGH/S TO STILL FALL SHORT OF SEASONAL NORMS...BUT WILL BE
WARMER. WEAK WAA DUE TO RISING HEIGHTS AND MORE SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP
TEMPS WARM THROUGH THE 50S...APPROACHING 60 IN SPOTS.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE CENTRAL MID WEST
AND TRACKS TO OUR SOUTH. THIS LOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH MID WEST
SHORTWAVE...WHICH SHOULD GET BLOCKED BY THE PESKY LOW OFF THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. AS SUCH...DRY WEATHER IS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 40S IN AND AROUND
NYC TO THE LOWER 30S IN THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A BLOCKY PATTERN LOOKS TO DOMINATE MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD
ACROSS THE CONUS. A LARGE PERSISTENT CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO PLAGUE THE NORTHEAST US THROUGH TUESDAY WHICH WILL
RESULT IN GENERALLY MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS
POSSIBLE...MAINLY DURING THE DAY...AS SPOKES OF VORTICITY WITHIN
THE CYCLONIC FLOW ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA.

THIS CUTOFF FINALLY EXITS ON TUE WITH RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TUE
NIGHT AND WED. DRY CONDS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED.

MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE WITH HOW QUICKLY THE RIDGE AXIS
MOVES THROUGH AND THE NEXT TROUGH APPROACHES. GFS IS FASTER THAN THE
EC. WHAT BOTH MODELS DO AGREE ON IS THE PHASING OF A NRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WITH A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS RESULTING IN A
DEEP TROUGH THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUE NIGHT. THE SFC LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CUTOFF TRACKS THROUGH THE GULF COAST STATES TO
OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST ON THU AND CONTINUES ON A NE TRACK
THROUGH FRI. HOWEVER DUE TO THE DIFFERENCES ALOFT THE EC IS
STRONGER...SLOWER AND CLOSER TO THE COAST...BUT HAS TRENDED FURTHER
OFFSHORE THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...THAN THE GFS. HAVE MAINTAINED CHC POPS
AT THE COAST...AND HAVE SCALED BACK TO SCHC FURTHER INLAND.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVELS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL SLOWLY
WEAKEN TONIGHT...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST. THE HIGH WILL RETREAT FARTHER NORTH ON SATURDAY. VFR
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY NW TO NNW FLOW WILL DIMINISH AND
BACK WNW LATER TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS RESUMING DURING THE
MORNING...THEN BACK W TO WSW IN THE AFTERNOON.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: OCNL GUSTS JUST OVER 30 KT BEFORE 03Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: OCNL GUSTS UP TO 30 KT BEFORE 03Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WED...
.SAT...VFR.
.SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.
.MON-TUE...POSSIBLE MVFR WITH SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT-WED...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT DUE TO GUSTY NW
WINDS THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SEAS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW 5 FEET OVER THE OCEAN WATERS...AND BELOW 2 TO 3 FT
ELSEWHERE. WINDS ABATE SOMEWHAT LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES SOMEWHAT.

THEREAFTER...A WEAK PRES GRADIENT WILL KEEP SUB-ADVY CONDS ACROSS
THE WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. MARGINAL NW GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE ON THE OCEAN WATERS AS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR ELEVATED FIRE GROWTH WILL EXIST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. WIND CRITERIA LOOKS TO FALL SHORT IN SEVERAL
AREAS...AND FORECAST RH VALUES FALL SHORT FOR SOME SPOTS. 1 AND
1O HOUR FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS HAVE LOWERED IN THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS...SO AN SPS COULD EVENTUALLY BE APPROPRIATE FOR SOME
LOCATIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS AND FORECAST LOWS FOR SATURDAY APRIL 25

NEWARK NJ...34/1936......33
BRIDGEPORT CT 32/1956....34
CENTRAL PARK NY 29/1919..36
LAGUARDIA NY 36/1971.....38
KENNEDY NY *37/1971......36
ISLIP NY 36/2012.........31

*AND PREVIOUS YEARS

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NYZ067>070-078>081.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NJZ002-004-103>105-
     107.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...24/PW
NEAR TERM...JC/PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...GOODMAN
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...24/PW
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KOKX 250013
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
813 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PERSIST OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF COAST STATES WILL TRACK TO
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY THURSDAY AND CONTINUING NORTHEAST INTO
THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
UPDATES MADE MAINLY TO CLOUD COVER FOR THIS EVENING. FORECAST
OTHERWISE ON TRACK.

UPPER LOW WEAKENS SLIGHTLY TONIGHT AS IT REMAINS CENTERED OVER
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. HEIGHTS RISE SLIGHTLY ACROSS OUR AREA
TONIGHT.

AT THE SURFACE...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION REMAINING WEST OF THE AREA AS LOW PRESSURE REMAINS
STATIONARY OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

MODELS DO SHOW PLENTY OF DRYING TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW LOSES IT/S
GRIP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE NW. THESE
WINDS THOUGH ARE EXPECTED TO LIGHTEN LATE TONIGHT.

FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT AS A MOS BLEND WOULD SUPPORT
TEMPS CLOSE TO OR BELOW FREEZING. A FEW ZONES ARE BORDERLINE...BUT
WILL BE QUITE CLOSE OVERNIGHT.

THE MAIN FORECAST DILEMMA IS THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MIXING AND
EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER WHICH COULD IMPACT TEMPS. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR BUT FEEL FREEZE WARNING IS WARRANTED ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MORE OF THE SAME AS UPPER LOW REMAINS SITUATED TO THE NORTHEAST.
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES SOMEWHAT...AND TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE.
EXPECT HIGH/S TO STILL FALL SHORT OF SEASONAL NORMS...BUT WILL BE
WARMER. WEAK WAA DUE TO RISING HEIGHTS AND MORE SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP
TEMPS WARM THROUGH THE 50S...APPROACHING 60 IN SPOTS.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE CENTRAL MID WEST
AND TRACKS TO OUR SOUTH. THIS LOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH MID WEST
SHORTWAVE...WHICH SHOULD GET BLOCKED BY THE PESKY LOW OFF THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. AS SUCH...DRY WEATHER IS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 40S IN AND AROUND
NYC TO THE LOWER 30S IN THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A BLOCKY PATTERN LOOKS TO DOMINATE MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD
ACROSS THE CONUS. A LARGE PERSISTENT CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO PLAGUE THE NORTHEAST US THROUGH TUESDAY WHICH WILL
RESULT IN GENERALLY MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS
POSSIBLE...MAINLY DURING THE DAY...AS SPOKES OF VORTICITY WITHIN
THE CYCLONIC FLOW ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA.

THIS CUTOFF FINALLY EXITS ON TUE WITH RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TUE
NIGHT AND WED. DRY CONDS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED.

MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE WITH HOW QUICKLY THE RIDGE AXIS
MOVES THROUGH AND THE NEXT TROUGH APPROACHES. GFS IS FASTER THAN THE
EC. WHAT BOTH MODELS DO AGREE ON IS THE PHASING OF A NRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WITH A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS RESULTING IN A
DEEP TROUGH THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUE NIGHT. THE SFC LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CUTOFF TRACKS THROUGH THE GULF COAST STATES TO
OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST ON THU AND CONTINUES ON A NE TRACK
THROUGH FRI. HOWEVER DUE TO THE DIFFERENCES ALOFT THE EC IS
STRONGER...SLOWER AND CLOSER TO THE COAST...BUT HAS TRENDED FURTHER
OFFSHORE THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...THAN THE GFS. HAVE MAINTAINED CHC POPS
AT THE COAST...AND HAVE SCALED BACK TO SCHC FURTHER INLAND.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVELS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL SLOWLY
WEAKEN TONIGHT...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST. THE HIGH WILL RETREAT FARTHER NORTH ON SATURDAY. VFR
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY NW TO NNW FLOW WILL DIMINISH AND
BACK WNW LATER TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS RESUMING DURING THE
MORNING...THEN BACK W TO WSW IN THE AFTERNOON.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: OCNL GUSTS JUST OVER 30 KT BEFORE 03Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: OCNL GUSTS UP TO 30 KT BEFORE 03Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WED...
.SAT...VFR.
.SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.
.MON-TUE...POSSIBLE MVFR WITH SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT-WED...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT DUE TO GUSTY NW
WINDS THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SEAS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW 5 FEET OVER THE OCEAN WATERS...AND BELOW 2 TO 3 FT
ELSEWHERE. WINDS ABATE SOMEWHAT LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES SOMEWHAT.

THEREAFTER...A WEAK PRES GRADIENT WILL KEEP SUB-ADVY CONDS ACROSS
THE WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. MARGINAL NW GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE ON THE OCEAN WATERS AS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR ELEVATED FIRE GROWTH WILL EXIST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. WIND CRITERIA LOOKS TO FALL SHORT IN SEVERAL
AREAS...AND FORECAST RH VALUES FALL SHORT FOR SOME SPOTS. 1 AND
1O HOUR FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS HAVE LOWERED IN THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS...SO AN SPS COULD EVENTUALLY BE APPROPRIATE FOR SOME
LOCATIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS AND FORECAST LOWS FOR SATURDAY APRIL 25

NEWARK NJ...34/1936......33
BRIDGEPORT CT 32/1956....34
CENTRAL PARK NY 29/1919..36
LAGUARDIA NY 36/1971.....38
KENNEDY NY *37/1971......36
ISLIP NY 36/2012.........31

*AND PREVIOUS YEARS

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NYZ067>070-
     078>081.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NJZ002-004-
     103>105-107.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...24/PW
NEAR TERM...JC/PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...GOODMAN
MARINE...24/PW
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...24/PW
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KOKX 250013
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
813 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PERSIST OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF COAST STATES WILL TRACK TO
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY THURSDAY AND CONTINUING NORTHEAST INTO
THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
UPDATES MADE MAINLY TO CLOUD COVER FOR THIS EVENING. FORECAST
OTHERWISE ON TRACK.

UPPER LOW WEAKENS SLIGHTLY TONIGHT AS IT REMAINS CENTERED OVER
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. HEIGHTS RISE SLIGHTLY ACROSS OUR AREA
TONIGHT.

AT THE SURFACE...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION REMAINING WEST OF THE AREA AS LOW PRESSURE REMAINS
STATIONARY OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

MODELS DO SHOW PLENTY OF DRYING TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW LOSES IT/S
GRIP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE NW. THESE
WINDS THOUGH ARE EXPECTED TO LIGHTEN LATE TONIGHT.

FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT AS A MOS BLEND WOULD SUPPORT
TEMPS CLOSE TO OR BELOW FREEZING. A FEW ZONES ARE BORDERLINE...BUT
WILL BE QUITE CLOSE OVERNIGHT.

THE MAIN FORECAST DILEMMA IS THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MIXING AND
EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER WHICH COULD IMPACT TEMPS. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR BUT FEEL FREEZE WARNING IS WARRANTED ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MORE OF THE SAME AS UPPER LOW REMAINS SITUATED TO THE NORTHEAST.
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES SOMEWHAT...AND TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE.
EXPECT HIGH/S TO STILL FALL SHORT OF SEASONAL NORMS...BUT WILL BE
WARMER. WEAK WAA DUE TO RISING HEIGHTS AND MORE SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP
TEMPS WARM THROUGH THE 50S...APPROACHING 60 IN SPOTS.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE CENTRAL MID WEST
AND TRACKS TO OUR SOUTH. THIS LOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH MID WEST
SHORTWAVE...WHICH SHOULD GET BLOCKED BY THE PESKY LOW OFF THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. AS SUCH...DRY WEATHER IS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 40S IN AND AROUND
NYC TO THE LOWER 30S IN THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A BLOCKY PATTERN LOOKS TO DOMINATE MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD
ACROSS THE CONUS. A LARGE PERSISTENT CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO PLAGUE THE NORTHEAST US THROUGH TUESDAY WHICH WILL
RESULT IN GENERALLY MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS
POSSIBLE...MAINLY DURING THE DAY...AS SPOKES OF VORTICITY WITHIN
THE CYCLONIC FLOW ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA.

THIS CUTOFF FINALLY EXITS ON TUE WITH RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TUE
NIGHT AND WED. DRY CONDS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED.

MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE WITH HOW QUICKLY THE RIDGE AXIS
MOVES THROUGH AND THE NEXT TROUGH APPROACHES. GFS IS FASTER THAN THE
EC. WHAT BOTH MODELS DO AGREE ON IS THE PHASING OF A NRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WITH A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS RESULTING IN A
DEEP TROUGH THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUE NIGHT. THE SFC LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CUTOFF TRACKS THROUGH THE GULF COAST STATES TO
OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST ON THU AND CONTINUES ON A NE TRACK
THROUGH FRI. HOWEVER DUE TO THE DIFFERENCES ALOFT THE EC IS
STRONGER...SLOWER AND CLOSER TO THE COAST...BUT HAS TRENDED FURTHER
OFFSHORE THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...THAN THE GFS. HAVE MAINTAINED CHC POPS
AT THE COAST...AND HAVE SCALED BACK TO SCHC FURTHER INLAND.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVELS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL SLOWLY
WEAKEN TONIGHT...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST. THE HIGH WILL RETREAT FARTHER NORTH ON SATURDAY. VFR
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY NW TO NNW FLOW WILL DIMINISH AND
BACK WNW LATER TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS RESUMING DURING THE
MORNING...THEN BACK W TO WSW IN THE AFTERNOON.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: OCNL GUSTS JUST OVER 30 KT BEFORE 03Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: OCNL GUSTS UP TO 30 KT BEFORE 03Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WED...
.SAT...VFR.
.SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.
.MON-TUE...POSSIBLE MVFR WITH SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT-WED...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT DUE TO GUSTY NW
WINDS THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SEAS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW 5 FEET OVER THE OCEAN WATERS...AND BELOW 2 TO 3 FT
ELSEWHERE. WINDS ABATE SOMEWHAT LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES SOMEWHAT.

THEREAFTER...A WEAK PRES GRADIENT WILL KEEP SUB-ADVY CONDS ACROSS
THE WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. MARGINAL NW GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE ON THE OCEAN WATERS AS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR ELEVATED FIRE GROWTH WILL EXIST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. WIND CRITERIA LOOKS TO FALL SHORT IN SEVERAL
AREAS...AND FORECAST RH VALUES FALL SHORT FOR SOME SPOTS. 1 AND
1O HOUR FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS HAVE LOWERED IN THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS...SO AN SPS COULD EVENTUALLY BE APPROPRIATE FOR SOME
LOCATIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS AND FORECAST LOWS FOR SATURDAY APRIL 25

NEWARK NJ...34/1936......33
BRIDGEPORT CT 32/1956....34
CENTRAL PARK NY 29/1919..36
LAGUARDIA NY 36/1971.....38
KENNEDY NY *37/1971......36
ISLIP NY 36/2012.........31

*AND PREVIOUS YEARS

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NYZ067>070-
     078>081.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NJZ002-004-
     103>105-107.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...24/PW
NEAR TERM...JC/PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...GOODMAN
MARINE...24/PW
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...24/PW
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 242349
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
749 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH
SPOTTY SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES. PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF NEXT
WEEK AS WELL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...

735 PM UPDATE...
DIURNAL ISOLD SHOWERS THAT DEVELOPED ACROSS WESTERN AREAS EARLIER
THIS AFTERNOON HAVE DISSIPATED AS SEEN ON LATEST NE REGIONAL 88D
RADAR MOSAIC. REMAINDER OF LOW AND MID CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH
SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS ARE SHIFTING NE AND DISSIPATING VIA
LATEST IR SATELLITE TRENDS.

WILL SEE CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE FROM S-N AS WELL AS SHIFT NE
AS THEY ROTATE AROUND THE NW-SE ORIENTED UPPER LOW EXTENDING FROM
WEST CENTRAL QUEBEC THROUGH MAINE/N NH TO THE GULF OF MAINE.
SO...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH DIMINISHING WINDS OVERNIGHT. COLD
POOL ALOFT ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES /MAINLY
AROUND OR AFTER MIDNIGHT/ WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL.

HAVE UPDATED NEAR TERM CONDITIONS TO BRING CONDITIONS AND
INCORPORATED INTO TRENDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THIS LEFT
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...
LINGERING CLOUD SHIELD UNDER THE UPPER LOW AND COLD POOL...BUT
THIS SHOULD START TO LIFT OUT TO THE NORTH AND EAST SOMEWHAT. SO
WE EXPECT AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING TONIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCE
OVER CONNECTICUT. PRESSURE GRADIENT STAYS ENOUGH TO KEEP THE AIR
MOVING...SO FROST IS NOT LIKELY EXCEPT POSSIBLY IN THE MOST
SHELTERED OF LOCATIONS THAT CLEAR. ON THE OTHER HAND TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT OR PERHAPS A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER.
EXPECTED RANGE IS IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S...AND FREEZING TEMPS IN
PARTS OF THE ACTIVE GROWING ZONE /CT-RI-SOUTHEAST MA/. WE PLAN ON
CONVERTING THE EXISTING FREEZE WATCH TO A FREEZE WARNING FOR
NORTHERN CT AND NORTHWEST RI.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...UPPER CLOUD SHIELD AND COLD POOL WILL BE FOCUSED OVER
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO AFFECT US. DAYTIME
HEATING AND A SHORTWAVE CYCLING AROUND THE LOW MAY PUSH CLOUDS
BACK OUR WAY DURING THE DAY. THE SURFACE LAYER WILL BE DRIER...SO
MOST ATTEMPTS AT PRECIPITATION SHOULD EVAPORATE ON THE WAY DOWN.
TEMPS AT 850 MB ARE FORECAST AROUND -2C...WHICH SUPPORTS MAX SFC
TEMPS IN THE 50S. WINDS ALOFT IN THE MIXED LAYER REACH 20
KNOTS...SO EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF GUSTS EITHER SIDE OF 20.

SATURDAY NIGHT...

WEAK RIDGE BUILDS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND PROVIDING CLEARING
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
30S...SO MIN SFC TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
  WEEK
* SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND INTO MID-NEXT WEEK
* LOW CONFIDENCE ON COASTAL SYSTEM THU OR FRI

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL BLOCKING PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE LOWER 48 WITH FEW CHANGES EXPECTED INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. HOWEVER...NOTING SOME SUBTLE CHANGES TOWARD NEXT THU/FRI
WHICH ARE SHOWING UP AT LEAST ON THE LAST COUPLE OF MEDIUM RANGE
OPERATIONAL RUNS OF BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF THAT ARE STARTING TO
SIGNAL THE BREAKING DOWN OF THE UPPER TROUGH PATTERN. THE GEFS
AND EC ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO KEEP SLOW PROGRESSION OF SYSTEMS...SO
STILL QUITE A BIT OF TIMING AND TRACK ISSUES TO CONTEND WITH THIS
FORECAST CYCLE.

NEGATIVE NAO/AO PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE...KEEPING BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS AND PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK AS CUTOFF H5 LOW PRES CONTINUES TO SIT AND SPIN
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN QUEBEC AND THE MARITIMES. MODELS
SIGNALING A STRONGER SHORT WAVE THAT WILL DROP S ACROSS THE REGION
OUT OF EASTERN CANADA IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL DROP ACROSS THE
REGION BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALONG WITH AN ENHANCED
N-NE WIND FLOW. ONCE THIS SHORT WAVE MOVES S...THE UPPER SYSTEM
MAY START TO SHIFT E BUT TIMING IS STILL VERY MUCH IN QUESTION DUE
TO WIDE MODEL SOLUTION SPREAD BEYOND TUESDAY.

ANOTHER QUESTION AT THIS POINT IS THE POTENTIAL COASTAL SYSTEM
THAT WORKS OFF THE SE U.S. COAST LATE WED OR THU. THE 12Z MODEL
RUNS CONTINUE TO KEEP THE BLOCKING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WHICH MAY
ACTUALLY SHUNT THE COASTAL SYSTEM S OF THE REGION. NOTING A RATHER
STRONG SYSTEM ON THE 12Z ECMWF...WHICH TENDS TO DEVELOP AND SLOW
THE SYSTEM AS IT PASSES S OF NEW ENGLAND THU NIGHT OR FRIDAY...
WHILE THE GFS IS A MORE OPEN WAVE BUT STILL PUSHES OFFSHORE. WILL
STILL NEED TO WATCH FUTURE MODEL TRENDS BEFORE WRITING THIS ONE
OFF FOR NOW.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INTO TUESDAY...WHICH SHOWED
GOOD CONSISTENCY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...THEN TRANSITIONED
OVER TO ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.

DETAILS...

* SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WHILE THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO BRING A FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS WITH
THE COLD POOL ALOFT WHICH ACTUALLY LOOKS TO SLOWLY SHIFT E LATER
IN THE DAY. SO...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS...SKIES SHOULD START OFF PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY THEN CLOUDS
DEVELOP ALONG WITH A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS ESPECIALLY NEAR AND N OF
THE MASS PIKE CLOSER TO THE SHORT WAVE THAT BEGINS TO SHIFT OUT OF
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE DAY.

EXPECT TEMPS TO TOP OFF MAINLY IN THE 50S...BUT IF A LITTLE MORE
SUN WORKS THROUGH THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE LOWER CT VALLEY...READINGS
MAY TOUCH 60 IN A FEW SPOTS.

* MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

RATHER POTENT H5 SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED BACKDOOR /OF SORTS/
SURFACE REFLECTION ROTATE SW ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME. LOOKS LIKE THE BEST ENERGY AND PRECIP CHANCES WILL
PUSH ACROSS MON NIGHT THROUGH INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS ALSO
SHIFT TO N-NE AND INCREASE. GUSTS UP TO AROUND 25 KT POSSIBLE
MAINLY ALONG E COASTAL AREAS. MAY SEE SOME APPRECIABLE RAINFALL
WITH QPF OF 0.2 TO 0.3 INCHES ALONG THE E COAST AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES WITH THE ONSHORE WIND.

* WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM THAT
MAY MAKE THE TURN UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. HOWEVER...12Z MODEL
TRENDS ARE TENDING TO KEEP THIS SYSTEM TO THE S THANKS TO THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT MAY PUSH THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM OFFSHORE. THIS
THIS WAS A RECENT TREND THOUGH...DID KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING FROM
THU AFTERNOON THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF FRIDAY DUE TO THE MODEL/S
HANDLING OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. TEMPS ARE ALSO
TRYING TO CREEP BACK CLOSER TO SEASONAL LEVELS DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. LEFTOVER W-NW WIND GUSTING TO 20
KT THROUGH 02Z-03Z INLAND THEN DIMINISHING.

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR IN SPOTTY
SHOWERS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING AROUND
20 KNOTS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH LIGHT WIND.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE
WEDNESDAY.

SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCT SHOWERS.
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE ALONG E COAST.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE WITH BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. N-NE WINDS INCREASE ESPECIALLY ALONG E COAST.
MAY SEE GUSTS TO 20-25 KT FROM PLYMOUTH COUNTY S TO CAPE COD AND
THE ISLANDS MAINLY MON NIGHT AND TUE.

WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. LIGHT N-NW WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS GUST 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH STRONGEST GUSTS
OFFSHORE. SEAS LINGER NEAR 5 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH
SATURDAY AND THEN SUBSIDE. SEAS BELOW 5 FEET ALL OTHER WATERS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LINGERS ON THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING DUE TO SEAS AND OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS. SCA ALSO
LINGERS ON RI AND BLOCK ISLAND SOUNDS TONIGHT MOSTLY DUE TO WINDS
AT OR NEAR 25 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. EXPECT NW
WINDS TO SHIFT TO NE BUT REMAIN BELOW 15 KT. SEA BREEZES POSSIBLE
ALONG E COAST.

MONDAY...N-NW WINDS INCREASE BUT REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT. SEAS
REMAIN BELOW 5 FT.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...N-NE WINDS INCREASE...GUSTING
TO 25-30 KT. SEAS BUILD UP TO 5-7 FT...HIGHEST ON THE EASTERN
OUTER WATERS DURING TUE. MODERATE PROBABILITY FOR SMALL CRAFT.

WEDNESDAY...WINDS BECOME NW AND DIMINISH. MAY SEE LEFTOVER GUSTS
TO 25 KT EARLY. SEAS WILL REMAIN AOA 5 FT MAINLY ON THE OUTER
WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...NONE.
RI...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR RIZ001-003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB/EVT
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 242349
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
749 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH
SPOTTY SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES. PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF NEXT
WEEK AS WELL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...

735 PM UPDATE...
DIURNAL ISOLD SHOWERS THAT DEVELOPED ACROSS WESTERN AREAS EARLIER
THIS AFTERNOON HAVE DISSIPATED AS SEEN ON LATEST NE REGIONAL 88D
RADAR MOSAIC. REMAINDER OF LOW AND MID CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH
SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS ARE SHIFTING NE AND DISSIPATING VIA
LATEST IR SATELLITE TRENDS.

WILL SEE CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE FROM S-N AS WELL AS SHIFT NE
AS THEY ROTATE AROUND THE NW-SE ORIENTED UPPER LOW EXTENDING FROM
WEST CENTRAL QUEBEC THROUGH MAINE/N NH TO THE GULF OF MAINE.
SO...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH DIMINISHING WINDS OVERNIGHT. COLD
POOL ALOFT ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES /MAINLY
AROUND OR AFTER MIDNIGHT/ WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL.

HAVE UPDATED NEAR TERM CONDITIONS TO BRING CONDITIONS AND
INCORPORATED INTO TRENDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THIS LEFT
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...
LINGERING CLOUD SHIELD UNDER THE UPPER LOW AND COLD POOL...BUT
THIS SHOULD START TO LIFT OUT TO THE NORTH AND EAST SOMEWHAT. SO
WE EXPECT AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING TONIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCE
OVER CONNECTICUT. PRESSURE GRADIENT STAYS ENOUGH TO KEEP THE AIR
MOVING...SO FROST IS NOT LIKELY EXCEPT POSSIBLY IN THE MOST
SHELTERED OF LOCATIONS THAT CLEAR. ON THE OTHER HAND TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT OR PERHAPS A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER.
EXPECTED RANGE IS IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S...AND FREEZING TEMPS IN
PARTS OF THE ACTIVE GROWING ZONE /CT-RI-SOUTHEAST MA/. WE PLAN ON
CONVERTING THE EXISTING FREEZE WATCH TO A FREEZE WARNING FOR
NORTHERN CT AND NORTHWEST RI.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...UPPER CLOUD SHIELD AND COLD POOL WILL BE FOCUSED OVER
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO AFFECT US. DAYTIME
HEATING AND A SHORTWAVE CYCLING AROUND THE LOW MAY PUSH CLOUDS
BACK OUR WAY DURING THE DAY. THE SURFACE LAYER WILL BE DRIER...SO
MOST ATTEMPTS AT PRECIPITATION SHOULD EVAPORATE ON THE WAY DOWN.
TEMPS AT 850 MB ARE FORECAST AROUND -2C...WHICH SUPPORTS MAX SFC
TEMPS IN THE 50S. WINDS ALOFT IN THE MIXED LAYER REACH 20
KNOTS...SO EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF GUSTS EITHER SIDE OF 20.

SATURDAY NIGHT...

WEAK RIDGE BUILDS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND PROVIDING CLEARING
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
30S...SO MIN SFC TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
  WEEK
* SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND INTO MID-NEXT WEEK
* LOW CONFIDENCE ON COASTAL SYSTEM THU OR FRI

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL BLOCKING PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE LOWER 48 WITH FEW CHANGES EXPECTED INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. HOWEVER...NOTING SOME SUBTLE CHANGES TOWARD NEXT THU/FRI
WHICH ARE SHOWING UP AT LEAST ON THE LAST COUPLE OF MEDIUM RANGE
OPERATIONAL RUNS OF BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF THAT ARE STARTING TO
SIGNAL THE BREAKING DOWN OF THE UPPER TROUGH PATTERN. THE GEFS
AND EC ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO KEEP SLOW PROGRESSION OF SYSTEMS...SO
STILL QUITE A BIT OF TIMING AND TRACK ISSUES TO CONTEND WITH THIS
FORECAST CYCLE.

NEGATIVE NAO/AO PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE...KEEPING BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS AND PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK AS CUTOFF H5 LOW PRES CONTINUES TO SIT AND SPIN
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN QUEBEC AND THE MARITIMES. MODELS
SIGNALING A STRONGER SHORT WAVE THAT WILL DROP S ACROSS THE REGION
OUT OF EASTERN CANADA IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL DROP ACROSS THE
REGION BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALONG WITH AN ENHANCED
N-NE WIND FLOW. ONCE THIS SHORT WAVE MOVES S...THE UPPER SYSTEM
MAY START TO SHIFT E BUT TIMING IS STILL VERY MUCH IN QUESTION DUE
TO WIDE MODEL SOLUTION SPREAD BEYOND TUESDAY.

ANOTHER QUESTION AT THIS POINT IS THE POTENTIAL COASTAL SYSTEM
THAT WORKS OFF THE SE U.S. COAST LATE WED OR THU. THE 12Z MODEL
RUNS CONTINUE TO KEEP THE BLOCKING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WHICH MAY
ACTUALLY SHUNT THE COASTAL SYSTEM S OF THE REGION. NOTING A RATHER
STRONG SYSTEM ON THE 12Z ECMWF...WHICH TENDS TO DEVELOP AND SLOW
THE SYSTEM AS IT PASSES S OF NEW ENGLAND THU NIGHT OR FRIDAY...
WHILE THE GFS IS A MORE OPEN WAVE BUT STILL PUSHES OFFSHORE. WILL
STILL NEED TO WATCH FUTURE MODEL TRENDS BEFORE WRITING THIS ONE
OFF FOR NOW.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INTO TUESDAY...WHICH SHOWED
GOOD CONSISTENCY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...THEN TRANSITIONED
OVER TO ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.

DETAILS...

* SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WHILE THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO BRING A FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS WITH
THE COLD POOL ALOFT WHICH ACTUALLY LOOKS TO SLOWLY SHIFT E LATER
IN THE DAY. SO...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS...SKIES SHOULD START OFF PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY THEN CLOUDS
DEVELOP ALONG WITH A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS ESPECIALLY NEAR AND N OF
THE MASS PIKE CLOSER TO THE SHORT WAVE THAT BEGINS TO SHIFT OUT OF
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE DAY.

EXPECT TEMPS TO TOP OFF MAINLY IN THE 50S...BUT IF A LITTLE MORE
SUN WORKS THROUGH THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE LOWER CT VALLEY...READINGS
MAY TOUCH 60 IN A FEW SPOTS.

* MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

RATHER POTENT H5 SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED BACKDOOR /OF SORTS/
SURFACE REFLECTION ROTATE SW ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME. LOOKS LIKE THE BEST ENERGY AND PRECIP CHANCES WILL
PUSH ACROSS MON NIGHT THROUGH INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS ALSO
SHIFT TO N-NE AND INCREASE. GUSTS UP TO AROUND 25 KT POSSIBLE
MAINLY ALONG E COASTAL AREAS. MAY SEE SOME APPRECIABLE RAINFALL
WITH QPF OF 0.2 TO 0.3 INCHES ALONG THE E COAST AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES WITH THE ONSHORE WIND.

* WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM THAT
MAY MAKE THE TURN UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. HOWEVER...12Z MODEL
TRENDS ARE TENDING TO KEEP THIS SYSTEM TO THE S THANKS TO THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT MAY PUSH THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM OFFSHORE. THIS
THIS WAS A RECENT TREND THOUGH...DID KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING FROM
THU AFTERNOON THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF FRIDAY DUE TO THE MODEL/S
HANDLING OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. TEMPS ARE ALSO
TRYING TO CREEP BACK CLOSER TO SEASONAL LEVELS DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. LEFTOVER W-NW WIND GUSTING TO 20
KT THROUGH 02Z-03Z INLAND THEN DIMINISHING.

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR IN SPOTTY
SHOWERS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING AROUND
20 KNOTS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH LIGHT WIND.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE
WEDNESDAY.

SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCT SHOWERS.
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE ALONG E COAST.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE WITH BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. N-NE WINDS INCREASE ESPECIALLY ALONG E COAST.
MAY SEE GUSTS TO 20-25 KT FROM PLYMOUTH COUNTY S TO CAPE COD AND
THE ISLANDS MAINLY MON NIGHT AND TUE.

WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. LIGHT N-NW WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS GUST 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH STRONGEST GUSTS
OFFSHORE. SEAS LINGER NEAR 5 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH
SATURDAY AND THEN SUBSIDE. SEAS BELOW 5 FEET ALL OTHER WATERS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LINGERS ON THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING DUE TO SEAS AND OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS. SCA ALSO
LINGERS ON RI AND BLOCK ISLAND SOUNDS TONIGHT MOSTLY DUE TO WINDS
AT OR NEAR 25 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. EXPECT NW
WINDS TO SHIFT TO NE BUT REMAIN BELOW 15 KT. SEA BREEZES POSSIBLE
ALONG E COAST.

MONDAY...N-NW WINDS INCREASE BUT REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT. SEAS
REMAIN BELOW 5 FT.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...N-NE WINDS INCREASE...GUSTING
TO 25-30 KT. SEAS BUILD UP TO 5-7 FT...HIGHEST ON THE EASTERN
OUTER WATERS DURING TUE. MODERATE PROBABILITY FOR SMALL CRAFT.

WEDNESDAY...WINDS BECOME NW AND DIMINISH. MAY SEE LEFTOVER GUSTS
TO 25 KT EARLY. SEAS WILL REMAIN AOA 5 FT MAINLY ON THE OUTER
WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...NONE.
RI...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR RIZ001-003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB/EVT
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT




000
FXUS61 KALY 242347
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
747 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE STORM IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NORTHWEST
FLOW AROUND IT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 747 PM EDT...STILL MOSTLY CLOUDY EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE
GUSTY CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION...ACCOMPANIED BY A
COLD POOL OF AIR ALOFT TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD CU/SC ALONG WITH SOME
LIGHT FLURRIES. THE CLOUDS AND FLURRIES WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
THIS EVENING AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT AS SOME DRIER AIR STARTS TO
WORK IN.

EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY IN MOST
AREAS BY LATE TONIGHT...BUT REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST DUE TO THE CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE
UPPER LOW WHICH WILL REMAIN OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

IT WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COLD TONIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
20S...WHICH IS ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ITS INFLUENCE ON OUR
REGION WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AS TEMPS ALOFT WARM A LITTLE AND
THE CYCLONIC FLOW WEAKENS. THIS WILL RESULT IN LESS CLOUDINESS
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...GENERALLY MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS...AND WARMER TEMPS. ALTHOUGH A SHOWERS OR SNOW SHOWERS
CAN NOT BE RULED OUT SATURDAY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...THE
COVERAGE OF ANY PCPN WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN IT WAS ON FRIDAY.

ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND...TEMPS WILL
STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL. HIGH SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 40S AND 50S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID
30S. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

ANOTHER IMPULSE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL BRING MORE CLOUDINESS AND A CHANCE OF
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND HAVE FORECAST POPS INCREASING
TO 25 TO 45 PERCENT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE PERIOD MARKS A TRANSITION TO A WARMING PATTERN.  WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
GIVEN NO ORGANIZED SYSTEMS DURING THE PERIOD...SHOWERS WILL BE MOST
LIKELY AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WHEN TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLEST...WITH ONLY SPOTTY SHOWERS POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SUNSHINE WILL BE LIMITED...BUT MOST ABUNDANT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO TONIGHT...BUT
WILL BECOME LESS CYCLONIC ON SATURDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
TO RESULT IN PLENTY OF CLOUDS IN VFR RANGE AROUND 4-6 KFT EARLY
TONIGHT...WITH CLOUDS BECOMING MORE SCATTERED LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING MAINLY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. SNOW SHOWERS
HAVE DIMINISHED SO DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
ENDING 00Z SUNDAY.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST AROUND 8-13 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS AT
KALB/KPSF...WITH WIND SPEEDS DECREASING TO 5-10 KTS OVERNIGHT.
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS AFTER
MIXING COMMENCES SATURDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
OUR REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
LOW ANCHORED ACROSS EASTERN CANADA.

THE RH SHOULD RECOVER TO 75-90 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN DROP INTO
THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE SAT AFTERNOON. WINDS SAT MAY STILL
OCCASIONALLY GUST UP TO 25-30 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION...MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF
SNOW TONIGHT...WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL
HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR
HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA (HSA).

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/JPV
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...GJM




000
FXUS61 KALY 242347
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
747 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE STORM IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NORTHWEST
FLOW AROUND IT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 747 PM EDT...STILL MOSTLY CLOUDY EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE
GUSTY CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION...ACCOMPANIED BY A
COLD POOL OF AIR ALOFT TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD CU/SC ALONG WITH SOME
LIGHT FLURRIES. THE CLOUDS AND FLURRIES WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
THIS EVENING AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT AS SOME DRIER AIR STARTS TO
WORK IN.

EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY IN MOST
AREAS BY LATE TONIGHT...BUT REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST DUE TO THE CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE
UPPER LOW WHICH WILL REMAIN OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

IT WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COLD TONIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
20S...WHICH IS ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ITS INFLUENCE ON OUR
REGION WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AS TEMPS ALOFT WARM A LITTLE AND
THE CYCLONIC FLOW WEAKENS. THIS WILL RESULT IN LESS CLOUDINESS
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...GENERALLY MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS...AND WARMER TEMPS. ALTHOUGH A SHOWERS OR SNOW SHOWERS
CAN NOT BE RULED OUT SATURDAY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...THE
COVERAGE OF ANY PCPN WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN IT WAS ON FRIDAY.

ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND...TEMPS WILL
STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL. HIGH SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 40S AND 50S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID
30S. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

ANOTHER IMPULSE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL BRING MORE CLOUDINESS AND A CHANCE OF
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND HAVE FORECAST POPS INCREASING
TO 25 TO 45 PERCENT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE PERIOD MARKS A TRANSITION TO A WARMING PATTERN.  WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
GIVEN NO ORGANIZED SYSTEMS DURING THE PERIOD...SHOWERS WILL BE MOST
LIKELY AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WHEN TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLEST...WITH ONLY SPOTTY SHOWERS POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SUNSHINE WILL BE LIMITED...BUT MOST ABUNDANT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO TONIGHT...BUT
WILL BECOME LESS CYCLONIC ON SATURDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
TO RESULT IN PLENTY OF CLOUDS IN VFR RANGE AROUND 4-6 KFT EARLY
TONIGHT...WITH CLOUDS BECOMING MORE SCATTERED LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING MAINLY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. SNOW SHOWERS
HAVE DIMINISHED SO DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
ENDING 00Z SUNDAY.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST AROUND 8-13 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS AT
KALB/KPSF...WITH WIND SPEEDS DECREASING TO 5-10 KTS OVERNIGHT.
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS AFTER
MIXING COMMENCES SATURDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
OUR REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
LOW ANCHORED ACROSS EASTERN CANADA.

THE RH SHOULD RECOVER TO 75-90 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN DROP INTO
THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE SAT AFTERNOON. WINDS SAT MAY STILL
OCCASIONALLY GUST UP TO 25-30 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION...MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF
SNOW TONIGHT...WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL
HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR
HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA (HSA).

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/JPV
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...GJM



000
FXUS61 KBOX 242110
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
510 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH
SPOTTY SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES. PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF NEXT
WEEK AS WELL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
THROUGH 8 PM...
UPPER LOW AND COLD POOL IN PLACE OVER NEW NEW ENGLAND. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS LOW AND
CROSSES NEW ENGLAND TOWARD 00Z. RH FORECAST PROFILES SHOW A LAYER
OF HIGH RH VALUES BETWEEN 850 AND 700 MB THROUGH 00Z...ALTHOUGH
VERTICAL MOTION IS SUBSIDENT. WE COULD SEE A FEW SPRINKLES OR
FLURRIES LATE TODAY/THIS EVENING.

TONIGHT...LINGERING CLOUD SHIELD UNDER THE UPPER LOW AND COLD
POOL...BUT THIS SHOULD START TO LIFT OUT TO THE NORTH AND EAST
SOMEWHAT. SO WE EXPECT AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING TONIGHT WITH THE
BEST CHANCE OVER CONNECTICUT. PRESSURE GRADIENT STAYS ENOUGH TO
KEEP THE AIR MOVING...SO FROST IS NOT LIKELY EXCEPT POSSIBLY IN
THE MOST SHELTERED OF LOCATIONS THAT CLEAR. ON THE OTHER HAND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT OR PERHAPS A DEGREE OR
TWO COOLER. EXPECTED RANGE IS IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S...AND
FREEZING TEMPS IN PARTS OF THE ACTIVE GROWING ZONE /CT-RI-
SOUTHEAST MA/. WE PLAN ON CONVERTING THE EXISTING FREEZE WATCH TO
A FREEZE WARNING FOR NORTHERN CT AND NORTHWEST RI.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...UPPER CLOUD SHIELD AND COLD POOL WILL BE FOCUSED OVER
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO AFFECT US. DAYTIME
HEATING AND A SHORTWAVE CYCLING AROUND THE LOW MAY PUSH CLOUDS
BACK OUR WAY DURING THE DAY. THE SURFACE LAYER WILL BE DRIER...SO
MOST ATTEMPTS AT PRECIPITATION SHOULD EVAPORATE ON THE WAY DOWN.
TEMPS AT 850 MB ARE FORECAST AROUND -2C...WHICH SUPPORTS MAX SFC
TEMPS IN THE 50S. WINDS ALOFT IN THE MIXED LAYER REACH 20
KNOTS...SO EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF GUSTS EITHER SIDE OF 20.

SATURDAY NIGHT...

WEAK RIDGE BUILDS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND PROVIDING CLEARING
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
30S...SO MIN SFC TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
  WEEK
* SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND INTO MID-NEXT WEEK
* LOW CONFIDENCE ON COASTAL SYSTEM THU OR FRI

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL BLOCKING PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE LOWER 48 WITH FEW CHANGES EXPECTED INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. HOWEVER...NOTING SOME SUBTLE CHANGES TOWARD NEXT THU/FRI
WHICH ARE SHOWING UP AT LEAST ON THE LAST COUPLE OF MEDIUM RANGE
OPERATIONAL RUNS OF BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF THAT ARE STARTING TO
SIGNAL THE BREAKING DOWN OF THE UPPER TROUGH PATTERN. THE GEFS
AND EC ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO KEEP SLOW PROGRESSION OF SYSTEMS...SO
STILL QUITE A BIT OF TIMING AND TRACK ISSUES TO CONTEND WITH THIS
FORECAST CYCLE.

NEGATIVE NAO/AO PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE...KEEPING BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS AND PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK AS CUTOFF H5 LOW PRES CONTINUES TO SIT AND SPIN
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN QUEBEC AND THE MARITIMES. MODELS
SIGNALING A STRONGER SHORT WAVE THAT WILL DROP S ACROSS THE REGION
OUT OF EASTERN CANADA IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL DROP ACROSS THE
REGION BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALONG WITH AN ENHANCED
N-NE WIND FLOW. ONCE THIS SHORT WAVE MOVES S...THE UPPER SYSTEM
MAY START TO SHIFT E BUT TIMING IS STILL VERY MUCH IN QUESTION DUE
TO WIDE MODEL SOLUTION SPREAD BEYOND TUESDAY.

ANOTHER QUESTION AT THIS POINT IS THE POTENTIAL COASTAL SYSTEM
THAT WORKS OFF THE SE U.S. COAST LATE WED OR THU. THE 12Z MODEL
RUNS CONTINUE TO KEEP THE BLOCKING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WHICH MAY
ACTUALLY SHUNT THE COASTAL SYSTEM S OF THE REGION. NOTING A RATHER
STRONG SYSTEM ON THE 12Z ECMWF...WHICH TENDS TO DEVELOP AND SLOW
THE SYSTEM AS IT PASSES S OF NEW ENGLAND THU NIGHT OR FRIDAY...
WHILE THE GFS IS A MORE OPEN WAVE BUT STILL PUSHES OFFSHORE. WILL
STILL NEED TO WATCH FUTURE MODEL TRENDS BEFORE WRITING THIS ONE
OFF FOR NOW.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INTO TUESDAY...WHICH SHOWED
GOOD CONSISTENCY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...THEN TRANSITIONED
OVER TO ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.

DETAILS...

* SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WHILE THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO BRING A FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS WITH
THE COLD POOL ALOFT WHICH ACTUALLY LOOKS TO SLOWLY SHIFT E LATER
IN THE DAY. SO...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS...SKIES SHOULD START OFF PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY THEN CLOUDS
DEVELOP ALONG WITH A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS ESPECIALLY NEAR AND N OF
THE MASS PIKE CLOSER TO THE SHORT WAVE THAT BEGINS TO SHIFT OUT OF
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE DAY.

EXPECT TEMPS TO TOP OFF MAINLY IN THE 50S...BUT IF A LITTLE MORE
SUN WORKS THROUGH THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE LOWER CT VALLEY...READINGS
MAY TOUCH 60 IN A FEW SPOTS.

* MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

RATHER POTENT H5 SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED BACKDOOR /OF SORTS/
SURFACE REFLECTION ROTATE SW ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME. LOOKS LIKE THE BEST ENERGY AND PRECIP CHANCES WILL
PUSH ACROSS MON NIGHT THROUGH INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS ALSO
SHIFT TO N-NE AND INCREASE. GUSTS UP TO AROUND 25 KT POSSIBLE
MAINLY ALONG E COASTAL AREAS. MAY SEE SOME APPRECIABLE RAINFALL
WITH QPF OF 0.2 TO 0.3 INCHES ALONG THE E COAST AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES WITH THE ONSHORE WIND.

* WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM THAT
MAY MAKE THE TURN UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. HOWEVER...12Z MODEL
TRENDS ARE TENDING TO KEEP THIS SYSTEM TO THE S THANKS TO THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT MAY PUSH THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM OFFSHORE. THIS
THIS WAS A RECENT TREND THOUGH...DID KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING FROM
THU AFTERNOON THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF FRIDAY DUE TO THE MODEL/S
HANDLING OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. TEMPS ARE ALSO
TRYING TO CREEP BACK CLOSER TO SEASONAL LEVELS DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

THIS AFTERNOON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING
20-22 KNOTS.

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR
IN SPOTTY SHOWERS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING
AROUND 20 KNOTS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH LIGHT WIND.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE
WEDNESDAY.

SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCT SHOWERS.
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE ALONG E COAST.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE WITH BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. N-NE WINDS INCREASE ESPECIALLY ALONG E COAST.
MAY SEE GUSTS TO 20-25 KT FROM PLYMOUTH COUNTY S TO CAPE COD AND
THE ISLANDS MAINLY MON NIGHT AND TUE.

WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. LIGHT N-NW WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS GUST 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH STRONGEST GUSTS
OFFSHORE. SEAS LINGER NEAR 5 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH
SATURDAY AND THEN SUBSIDE. SEAS BELOW 5 FEET ALL OTHER WATERS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LINGERS ON THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING DUE TO SEAS AND OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS. SCA ALSO
LINGERS ON RI AND BLOCK ISLAND SOUNDS TONIGHT MOSTLY DUE TO WINDS
AT OR NEAR 25 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. EXPECT NW
WINDS TO SHIFT TO NE BUT REMAIN BELOW 15 KT. SEA BREEZES POSSIBLE
ALONG E COAST.

MONDAY...N-NW WINDS INCREASE BUT REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT. SEAS
REMAIN BELOW 5 FT.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...N-NE WINDS INCREASE...GUSTING
TO 25-30 KT. SEAS BUILD UP TO 5-7 FT...HIGHEST ON THE EASTERN
OUTER WATERS DURING TUE. MODERATE PROBABILITY FOR SMALL CRAFT.

WEDNESDAY...WINDS BECOME NW AND DIMINISH. MAY SEE LEFTOVER GUSTS
TO 25 KT EARLY. SEAS WILL REMAIN AOA 5 FT MAINLY ON THE OUTER
WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...NONE.
RI...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR RIZ001-003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 242110
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
510 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH
SPOTTY SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES. PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF NEXT
WEEK AS WELL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
THROUGH 8 PM...
UPPER LOW AND COLD POOL IN PLACE OVER NEW NEW ENGLAND. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS LOW AND
CROSSES NEW ENGLAND TOWARD 00Z. RH FORECAST PROFILES SHOW A LAYER
OF HIGH RH VALUES BETWEEN 850 AND 700 MB THROUGH 00Z...ALTHOUGH
VERTICAL MOTION IS SUBSIDENT. WE COULD SEE A FEW SPRINKLES OR
FLURRIES LATE TODAY/THIS EVENING.

TONIGHT...LINGERING CLOUD SHIELD UNDER THE UPPER LOW AND COLD
POOL...BUT THIS SHOULD START TO LIFT OUT TO THE NORTH AND EAST
SOMEWHAT. SO WE EXPECT AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING TONIGHT WITH THE
BEST CHANCE OVER CONNECTICUT. PRESSURE GRADIENT STAYS ENOUGH TO
KEEP THE AIR MOVING...SO FROST IS NOT LIKELY EXCEPT POSSIBLY IN
THE MOST SHELTERED OF LOCATIONS THAT CLEAR. ON THE OTHER HAND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT OR PERHAPS A DEGREE OR
TWO COOLER. EXPECTED RANGE IS IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S...AND
FREEZING TEMPS IN PARTS OF THE ACTIVE GROWING ZONE /CT-RI-
SOUTHEAST MA/. WE PLAN ON CONVERTING THE EXISTING FREEZE WATCH TO
A FREEZE WARNING FOR NORTHERN CT AND NORTHWEST RI.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...UPPER CLOUD SHIELD AND COLD POOL WILL BE FOCUSED OVER
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO AFFECT US. DAYTIME
HEATING AND A SHORTWAVE CYCLING AROUND THE LOW MAY PUSH CLOUDS
BACK OUR WAY DURING THE DAY. THE SURFACE LAYER WILL BE DRIER...SO
MOST ATTEMPTS AT PRECIPITATION SHOULD EVAPORATE ON THE WAY DOWN.
TEMPS AT 850 MB ARE FORECAST AROUND -2C...WHICH SUPPORTS MAX SFC
TEMPS IN THE 50S. WINDS ALOFT IN THE MIXED LAYER REACH 20
KNOTS...SO EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF GUSTS EITHER SIDE OF 20.

SATURDAY NIGHT...

WEAK RIDGE BUILDS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND PROVIDING CLEARING
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
30S...SO MIN SFC TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
  WEEK
* SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND INTO MID-NEXT WEEK
* LOW CONFIDENCE ON COASTAL SYSTEM THU OR FRI

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL BLOCKING PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE LOWER 48 WITH FEW CHANGES EXPECTED INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. HOWEVER...NOTING SOME SUBTLE CHANGES TOWARD NEXT THU/FRI
WHICH ARE SHOWING UP AT LEAST ON THE LAST COUPLE OF MEDIUM RANGE
OPERATIONAL RUNS OF BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF THAT ARE STARTING TO
SIGNAL THE BREAKING DOWN OF THE UPPER TROUGH PATTERN. THE GEFS
AND EC ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO KEEP SLOW PROGRESSION OF SYSTEMS...SO
STILL QUITE A BIT OF TIMING AND TRACK ISSUES TO CONTEND WITH THIS
FORECAST CYCLE.

NEGATIVE NAO/AO PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE...KEEPING BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS AND PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK AS CUTOFF H5 LOW PRES CONTINUES TO SIT AND SPIN
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN QUEBEC AND THE MARITIMES. MODELS
SIGNALING A STRONGER SHORT WAVE THAT WILL DROP S ACROSS THE REGION
OUT OF EASTERN CANADA IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL DROP ACROSS THE
REGION BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALONG WITH AN ENHANCED
N-NE WIND FLOW. ONCE THIS SHORT WAVE MOVES S...THE UPPER SYSTEM
MAY START TO SHIFT E BUT TIMING IS STILL VERY MUCH IN QUESTION DUE
TO WIDE MODEL SOLUTION SPREAD BEYOND TUESDAY.

ANOTHER QUESTION AT THIS POINT IS THE POTENTIAL COASTAL SYSTEM
THAT WORKS OFF THE SE U.S. COAST LATE WED OR THU. THE 12Z MODEL
RUNS CONTINUE TO KEEP THE BLOCKING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WHICH MAY
ACTUALLY SHUNT THE COASTAL SYSTEM S OF THE REGION. NOTING A RATHER
STRONG SYSTEM ON THE 12Z ECMWF...WHICH TENDS TO DEVELOP AND SLOW
THE SYSTEM AS IT PASSES S OF NEW ENGLAND THU NIGHT OR FRIDAY...
WHILE THE GFS IS A MORE OPEN WAVE BUT STILL PUSHES OFFSHORE. WILL
STILL NEED TO WATCH FUTURE MODEL TRENDS BEFORE WRITING THIS ONE
OFF FOR NOW.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INTO TUESDAY...WHICH SHOWED
GOOD CONSISTENCY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...THEN TRANSITIONED
OVER TO ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.

DETAILS...

* SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WHILE THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO BRING A FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS WITH
THE COLD POOL ALOFT WHICH ACTUALLY LOOKS TO SLOWLY SHIFT E LATER
IN THE DAY. SO...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS...SKIES SHOULD START OFF PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY THEN CLOUDS
DEVELOP ALONG WITH A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS ESPECIALLY NEAR AND N OF
THE MASS PIKE CLOSER TO THE SHORT WAVE THAT BEGINS TO SHIFT OUT OF
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE DAY.

EXPECT TEMPS TO TOP OFF MAINLY IN THE 50S...BUT IF A LITTLE MORE
SUN WORKS THROUGH THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE LOWER CT VALLEY...READINGS
MAY TOUCH 60 IN A FEW SPOTS.

* MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

RATHER POTENT H5 SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED BACKDOOR /OF SORTS/
SURFACE REFLECTION ROTATE SW ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME. LOOKS LIKE THE BEST ENERGY AND PRECIP CHANCES WILL
PUSH ACROSS MON NIGHT THROUGH INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS ALSO
SHIFT TO N-NE AND INCREASE. GUSTS UP TO AROUND 25 KT POSSIBLE
MAINLY ALONG E COASTAL AREAS. MAY SEE SOME APPRECIABLE RAINFALL
WITH QPF OF 0.2 TO 0.3 INCHES ALONG THE E COAST AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES WITH THE ONSHORE WIND.

* WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM THAT
MAY MAKE THE TURN UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. HOWEVER...12Z MODEL
TRENDS ARE TENDING TO KEEP THIS SYSTEM TO THE S THANKS TO THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT MAY PUSH THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM OFFSHORE. THIS
THIS WAS A RECENT TREND THOUGH...DID KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING FROM
THU AFTERNOON THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF FRIDAY DUE TO THE MODEL/S
HANDLING OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. TEMPS ARE ALSO
TRYING TO CREEP BACK CLOSER TO SEASONAL LEVELS DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

THIS AFTERNOON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING
20-22 KNOTS.

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR
IN SPOTTY SHOWERS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING
AROUND 20 KNOTS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH LIGHT WIND.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE
WEDNESDAY.

SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCT SHOWERS.
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE ALONG E COAST.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE WITH BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. N-NE WINDS INCREASE ESPECIALLY ALONG E COAST.
MAY SEE GUSTS TO 20-25 KT FROM PLYMOUTH COUNTY S TO CAPE COD AND
THE ISLANDS MAINLY MON NIGHT AND TUE.

WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. LIGHT N-NW WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS GUST 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH STRONGEST GUSTS
OFFSHORE. SEAS LINGER NEAR 5 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH
SATURDAY AND THEN SUBSIDE. SEAS BELOW 5 FEET ALL OTHER WATERS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LINGERS ON THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING DUE TO SEAS AND OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS. SCA ALSO
LINGERS ON RI AND BLOCK ISLAND SOUNDS TONIGHT MOSTLY DUE TO WINDS
AT OR NEAR 25 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. EXPECT NW
WINDS TO SHIFT TO NE BUT REMAIN BELOW 15 KT. SEA BREEZES POSSIBLE
ALONG E COAST.

MONDAY...N-NW WINDS INCREASE BUT REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT. SEAS
REMAIN BELOW 5 FT.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...N-NE WINDS INCREASE...GUSTING
TO 25-30 KT. SEAS BUILD UP TO 5-7 FT...HIGHEST ON THE EASTERN
OUTER WATERS DURING TUE. MODERATE PROBABILITY FOR SMALL CRAFT.

WEDNESDAY...WINDS BECOME NW AND DIMINISH. MAY SEE LEFTOVER GUSTS
TO 25 KT EARLY. SEAS WILL REMAIN AOA 5 FT MAINLY ON THE OUTER
WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...NONE.
RI...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR RIZ001-003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT




000
FXUS61 KALY 242101
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
501 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE STORM IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NORTHWEST
FLOW AROUND IT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 445 PM EDT...STILL MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE REGION AS THE
GUSTY CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION...ACCOMPANIED BY
A COLD POOL OF AIR ALOFT TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD CU/SC ALONG WITH
SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. THE CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS DIURNAL HEATING
SUBSIDES.

EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME MAINLY CLEAR IN MOST AREAS BY LATE
TONIGHT...BUT REMAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
THIRD OF THE FORECAST DUE TO THE CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LOW
WHICH WILL REMAIN OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

IT WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COLD TONIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
20S...WHICH IS ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ITS INFLUENCE ON OUR
REGION WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AS TEMPS ALOFT WARM A LITTLE AND
THE CYCLONIC FLOW WEAKENS. THIS WILL RESULT IN LESS CLOUDINESS
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...GENERALLY MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS...AND WARMER TEMPS. ALTHOUGH A SHOWERS OR SNOW SHOWERS
CAN NOT BE RULED OUT SATURDAY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...THE
COVERAGE OF ANY PCPN WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN IT WAS ON FRIDAY.

ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND...TEMPS WILL
STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL. HIGH SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 40S AND 50S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID
30S. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

ANOTHER IMPULSE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL BRING MORE CLOUDINESS AND A CHANCE OF
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND HAVE FORECAST POPS INCREASING
TO 25 TO 45 PERCENT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

THE PERIOD MARKS A TRANSITION TO A WARMING PATTERN.  WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
GIVEN NO ORGANIZED SYSTEMS DURING THE PERIOD...SHOWERS WILL BE MOST
LIKELY AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WHEN TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLEST...WITH ONLY SPOTTY SHOWERS POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SUNSHINE WILL BE LIMITED...BUT MOST ABUNDANT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.

THERE COULD SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON THAT COULD
BRIEFLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO MVFR OR EVEN IFR BUT ONLY A FEW
MINUTES AT MOST...AND NOT WORTH EVEN PLACING AS A TEMPO IN THE TAFS.

OTHERWISE VFR CIGS AROUND 5000 FEET AGL WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
EVENING PEAK. THE WIND WILL AVERAGE 10-15 KTS FROM A WEST OR
NORTHWEST DIRECTION WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO PERHAPS 30KTS...ESPECIALLY
AT KPSF AND KALB.

THE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING...AND THE CIGS WILL BECOME
SCATTERED LATER THIS EVENING AS WELL...FIRST AT KPOU THEN THE OTHER
TAF SITES AS WELL.

SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY DAY WITH EXCELLENT
VISIBILITIES. THE WIND WILL BECOME A LITTLE GUSTY AGAIN...WNW AROUND
10KTS...GUSTING TO 20KTS AFTER 12Z-14Z.

A CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT
BUT THE FLOW WILL BECOME LESS CYCLONIC ON SATURDAY.


OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
OUR REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
LOW ANCHORED ACROSS EASTERN CANADA.

THE RH SHOULD RECOVER TO 75-90 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN DROP INTO
THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE SAT AFTERNOON. WINDS SAT MAY STILL
OCCASIONALLY GUST UP TO 25-30 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION...MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF
SNOW TONIGHT...WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL
HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR
HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA (HSA).

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...GJM




000
FXUS61 KALY 242101
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
501 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE STORM IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NORTHWEST
FLOW AROUND IT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 445 PM EDT...STILL MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE REGION AS THE
GUSTY CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION...ACCOMPANIED BY
A COLD POOL OF AIR ALOFT TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD CU/SC ALONG WITH
SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. THE CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS DIURNAL HEATING
SUBSIDES.

EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME MAINLY CLEAR IN MOST AREAS BY LATE
TONIGHT...BUT REMAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
THIRD OF THE FORECAST DUE TO THE CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LOW
WHICH WILL REMAIN OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

IT WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COLD TONIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
20S...WHICH IS ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ITS INFLUENCE ON OUR
REGION WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AS TEMPS ALOFT WARM A LITTLE AND
THE CYCLONIC FLOW WEAKENS. THIS WILL RESULT IN LESS CLOUDINESS
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...GENERALLY MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS...AND WARMER TEMPS. ALTHOUGH A SHOWERS OR SNOW SHOWERS
CAN NOT BE RULED OUT SATURDAY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...THE
COVERAGE OF ANY PCPN WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN IT WAS ON FRIDAY.

ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND...TEMPS WILL
STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL. HIGH SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 40S AND 50S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID
30S. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

ANOTHER IMPULSE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL BRING MORE CLOUDINESS AND A CHANCE OF
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND HAVE FORECAST POPS INCREASING
TO 25 TO 45 PERCENT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

THE PERIOD MARKS A TRANSITION TO A WARMING PATTERN.  WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
GIVEN NO ORGANIZED SYSTEMS DURING THE PERIOD...SHOWERS WILL BE MOST
LIKELY AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WHEN TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLEST...WITH ONLY SPOTTY SHOWERS POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SUNSHINE WILL BE LIMITED...BUT MOST ABUNDANT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.

THERE COULD SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON THAT COULD
BRIEFLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO MVFR OR EVEN IFR BUT ONLY A FEW
MINUTES AT MOST...AND NOT WORTH EVEN PLACING AS A TEMPO IN THE TAFS.

OTHERWISE VFR CIGS AROUND 5000 FEET AGL WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
EVENING PEAK. THE WIND WILL AVERAGE 10-15 KTS FROM A WEST OR
NORTHWEST DIRECTION WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO PERHAPS 30KTS...ESPECIALLY
AT KPSF AND KALB.

THE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING...AND THE CIGS WILL BECOME
SCATTERED LATER THIS EVENING AS WELL...FIRST AT KPOU THEN THE OTHER
TAF SITES AS WELL.

SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY DAY WITH EXCELLENT
VISIBILITIES. THE WIND WILL BECOME A LITTLE GUSTY AGAIN...WNW AROUND
10KTS...GUSTING TO 20KTS AFTER 12Z-14Z.

A CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT
BUT THE FLOW WILL BECOME LESS CYCLONIC ON SATURDAY.


OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
OUR REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
LOW ANCHORED ACROSS EASTERN CANADA.

THE RH SHOULD RECOVER TO 75-90 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN DROP INTO
THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE SAT AFTERNOON. WINDS SAT MAY STILL
OCCASIONALLY GUST UP TO 25-30 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION...MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF
SNOW TONIGHT...WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL
HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR
HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA (HSA).

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...GJM



000
FXUS61 KALY 242101
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
501 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE STORM IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NORTHWEST
FLOW AROUND IT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 445 PM EDT...STILL MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE REGION AS THE
GUSTY CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION...ACCOMPANIED BY
A COLD POOL OF AIR ALOFT TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD CU/SC ALONG WITH
SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. THE CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS DIURNAL HEATING
SUBSIDES.

EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME MAINLY CLEAR IN MOST AREAS BY LATE
TONIGHT...BUT REMAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
THIRD OF THE FORECAST DUE TO THE CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LOW
WHICH WILL REMAIN OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

IT WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COLD TONIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
20S...WHICH IS ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ITS INFLUENCE ON OUR
REGION WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AS TEMPS ALOFT WARM A LITTLE AND
THE CYCLONIC FLOW WEAKENS. THIS WILL RESULT IN LESS CLOUDINESS
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...GENERALLY MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS...AND WARMER TEMPS. ALTHOUGH A SHOWERS OR SNOW SHOWERS
CAN NOT BE RULED OUT SATURDAY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...THE
COVERAGE OF ANY PCPN WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN IT WAS ON FRIDAY.

ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND...TEMPS WILL
STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL. HIGH SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 40S AND 50S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID
30S. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

ANOTHER IMPULSE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL BRING MORE CLOUDINESS AND A CHANCE OF
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND HAVE FORECAST POPS INCREASING
TO 25 TO 45 PERCENT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

THE PERIOD MARKS A TRANSITION TO A WARMING PATTERN.  WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
GIVEN NO ORGANIZED SYSTEMS DURING THE PERIOD...SHOWERS WILL BE MOST
LIKELY AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WHEN TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLEST...WITH ONLY SPOTTY SHOWERS POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SUNSHINE WILL BE LIMITED...BUT MOST ABUNDANT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.

THERE COULD SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON THAT COULD
BRIEFLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO MVFR OR EVEN IFR BUT ONLY A FEW
MINUTES AT MOST...AND NOT WORTH EVEN PLACING AS A TEMPO IN THE TAFS.

OTHERWISE VFR CIGS AROUND 5000 FEET AGL WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
EVENING PEAK. THE WIND WILL AVERAGE 10-15 KTS FROM A WEST OR
NORTHWEST DIRECTION WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO PERHAPS 30KTS...ESPECIALLY
AT KPSF AND KALB.

THE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING...AND THE CIGS WILL BECOME
SCATTERED LATER THIS EVENING AS WELL...FIRST AT KPOU THEN THE OTHER
TAF SITES AS WELL.

SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY DAY WITH EXCELLENT
VISIBILITIES. THE WIND WILL BECOME A LITTLE GUSTY AGAIN...WNW AROUND
10KTS...GUSTING TO 20KTS AFTER 12Z-14Z.

A CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT
BUT THE FLOW WILL BECOME LESS CYCLONIC ON SATURDAY.


OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
OUR REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
LOW ANCHORED ACROSS EASTERN CANADA.

THE RH SHOULD RECOVER TO 75-90 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN DROP INTO
THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE SAT AFTERNOON. WINDS SAT MAY STILL
OCCASIONALLY GUST UP TO 25-30 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION...MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF
SNOW TONIGHT...WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL
HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR
HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA (HSA).

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...GJM




000
FXUS61 KALY 242101
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
501 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE STORM IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NORTHWEST
FLOW AROUND IT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 445 PM EDT...STILL MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE REGION AS THE
GUSTY CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION...ACCOMPANIED BY
A COLD POOL OF AIR ALOFT TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD CU/SC ALONG WITH
SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. THE CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS DIURNAL HEATING
SUBSIDES.

EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME MAINLY CLEAR IN MOST AREAS BY LATE
TONIGHT...BUT REMAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
THIRD OF THE FORECAST DUE TO THE CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LOW
WHICH WILL REMAIN OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

IT WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COLD TONIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
20S...WHICH IS ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ITS INFLUENCE ON OUR
REGION WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AS TEMPS ALOFT WARM A LITTLE AND
THE CYCLONIC FLOW WEAKENS. THIS WILL RESULT IN LESS CLOUDINESS
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...GENERALLY MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS...AND WARMER TEMPS. ALTHOUGH A SHOWERS OR SNOW SHOWERS
CAN NOT BE RULED OUT SATURDAY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...THE
COVERAGE OF ANY PCPN WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN IT WAS ON FRIDAY.

ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND...TEMPS WILL
STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL. HIGH SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 40S AND 50S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID
30S. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

ANOTHER IMPULSE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL BRING MORE CLOUDINESS AND A CHANCE OF
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND HAVE FORECAST POPS INCREASING
TO 25 TO 45 PERCENT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

THE PERIOD MARKS A TRANSITION TO A WARMING PATTERN.  WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
GIVEN NO ORGANIZED SYSTEMS DURING THE PERIOD...SHOWERS WILL BE MOST
LIKELY AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WHEN TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLEST...WITH ONLY SPOTTY SHOWERS POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SUNSHINE WILL BE LIMITED...BUT MOST ABUNDANT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.

THERE COULD SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON THAT COULD
BRIEFLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO MVFR OR EVEN IFR BUT ONLY A FEW
MINUTES AT MOST...AND NOT WORTH EVEN PLACING AS A TEMPO IN THE TAFS.

OTHERWISE VFR CIGS AROUND 5000 FEET AGL WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
EVENING PEAK. THE WIND WILL AVERAGE 10-15 KTS FROM A WEST OR
NORTHWEST DIRECTION WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO PERHAPS 30KTS...ESPECIALLY
AT KPSF AND KALB.

THE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING...AND THE CIGS WILL BECOME
SCATTERED LATER THIS EVENING AS WELL...FIRST AT KPOU THEN THE OTHER
TAF SITES AS WELL.

SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY DAY WITH EXCELLENT
VISIBILITIES. THE WIND WILL BECOME A LITTLE GUSTY AGAIN...WNW AROUND
10KTS...GUSTING TO 20KTS AFTER 12Z-14Z.

A CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT
BUT THE FLOW WILL BECOME LESS CYCLONIC ON SATURDAY.


OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
OUR REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
LOW ANCHORED ACROSS EASTERN CANADA.

THE RH SHOULD RECOVER TO 75-90 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN DROP INTO
THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE SAT AFTERNOON. WINDS SAT MAY STILL
OCCASIONALLY GUST UP TO 25-30 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION...MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF
SNOW TONIGHT...WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL
HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR
HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA (HSA).

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...GJM



000
FXUS61 KOKX 242005
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
405 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PERSIST OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF COAST STATES WILL TRACK TO
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY THURSDAY AND CONTINUING NORTHEAST INTO
THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
UPPER LOW WEAKENS SLIGHTLY TONIGHT AS IT REMAINS CENTERED OVER
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. HEIGHTS RISE SLIGHTLY ACROSS OUR AREA
TONIGHT.

AT THE SURFACE...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION REMAINING WEST OF THE AREA AS LOW PRESSURE REMAINS
STATIONARY OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

MODELS DO SHOW PLENTY OF DRYING TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW LOSES IT/S
GRIP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE NW. THESE
WINDS THOUGH ARE EXPECTED TO LIGHTEN LATE TONIGHT.

WILL CONVERT THE FREEZE WATCH TO A WARNING AS A MOS BLEND WOULD
SUPPORT TEMPS CLOSE TO OR BELOW FREEZING. A FEW ZONES ARE
BORDERLINE...BUT WILL BE QUITE CLOSE OVERNIGHT.

THE MAIN FORECAST DILEMMA IS THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MIXING AND
EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER WHICH COULD IMPACT TEMPS. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR BUT FEEL FREEZE WARNING IS WARRANTED ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MORE OF THE SAME AS UPPER LOW REMAINS SITUATED TO THE NORTHEAST.
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES SOMEWHAT...AND TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE.
EXPECT HIGH/S TO STILL FALL SHORT OF SEASONAL NORMS...BUT WILL BE
WARMER. WEAK WAA DUE TO RISING HEIGHTS AND MORE SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP
TEMPS WARM THROUGH THE 50S...APPROACHING 60 IN SPOTS.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE CENTRAL MID WEST
AND TRACKS TO OUR SOUTH. THIS LOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH MID WEST
SHORTWAVE...WHICH SHOULD GET BLOCKED BY THE PESKY LOW OFF THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. AS SUCH...DRY WEATHER IS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 40S IN AND AROUND
NYC TO THE LOWER 30S IN THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A BLOCKY PATTERN LOOKS TO DOMINATE MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD
ACROSS THE CONUS. A LARGE PERSISTENT CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO PLAGUE THE NORTHEAST US THROUGH TUESDAY WHICH WILL
RESULT IN GENERALLY MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS
POSSIBLE...MAINLY DURING THE DAY...AS SPOKES OF VORTICITY WITHIN
THE CYCLONIC FLOW ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA.

THIS CUTOFF FINALLY EXITS ON TUE WITH RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TUE
NIGHT AND WED. DRY CONDS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED.

MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE WITH HOW QUICKLY THE RIDGE AXIS
MOVES THROUGH AND THE NEXT TROUGH APPROACHES. GFS IS FASTER THAN THE
EC. WHAT BOTH MODELS DO AGREE ON IS THE PHASING OF A NRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WITH A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS RESULTING IN A
DEEP TROUGH THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUE NIGHT. THE SFC LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CUTOFF TRACKS THROUGH THE GULF COAST STATES TO
OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST ON THU AND CONTINUES ON A NE TRACK
THROUGH FRI. HOWEVER DUE TO THE DIFFERENCES ALOFT THE EC IS
STRONGER...SLOWER AND CLOSER TO THE COAST...BUT HAS TRENDED FURTHER
OFFSHORE THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...THAN THE GFS. HAVE MAINTAINED CHC POPS
AT THE COAST...AND HAVE SCALED BACK TO SCHC FURTHER INLAND.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVELS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SLOWLY WEAKENS WITH BRIEF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST INTO TONIGHT. THIS HIGH WILL
RETREAT FARTHER NORTH SATURDAY. VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH
GUSTY NW FLOW MUCH OF THE TIME.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND GUSTS COULD BECOME OCCASIONAL TONIGHT.
GUSTS COULD OCCASIONALLY PEAK TO 30-35 KT BEFORE 03Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND GUSTS COULD BECOME OCCASIONAL TONIGHT.
GUSTS COULD OCCASIONALLY PEAK TO 30-35 KT BEFORE 03Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND GUSTS COULD BECOME OCCASIONAL TONIGHT.
GUSTS COULD OCCASIONALLY PEAK TO 30-35 KT BEFORE 02Z.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND GUSTS COULD BECOME OCCASIONAL EARLY
THIS EVENING. GUSTS COULD OCCASIONALLY PEAK TO NEAR 30 KT BEFORE 00Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND GUSTS COULD BECOME OCCASIONAL EARLY
THIS EVENING. GUSTS COULD OCCASIONALLY PEAK TO NEAR 30 KT BEFORE 01Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND GUSTS COULD BECOME OCCASIONAL THIS
EVENING. GUSTS COULD OCCASIONALLY PEAK TO 30-35 KT BEFORE 01Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SAT THROUGH WED...
.SAT...VFR. NW FLOW BACKING TO W-SW SAT AFTN.
.SAT NIGHT-SUN NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.
.MON-TUE...POSSIBLE MVFR WITH SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT-WED...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT DUE TO GUSTY NW
WINDS THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SEAS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW 5 FEET OVER THE OCEAN WATERS...AND BELOW 2 TO 3 FT
ELSEWHERE. WINDS ABATE SOMEWHAT LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES SOMEWHAT.

THEREAFTER...A WEAK PRES GRADIENT WILL KEEP SUB-ADVSY CONDS
ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. MARGINAL NW GUSTS
ARE POSSIBLE LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE ON THE OCEAN WATERS AS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY INTO THE EVENING ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED. HOWEVER...ALTHOUGH LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL
HAS FALLEN OVER THE PREVIOUS 3 DAYS...SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL MONDAY IS
HELPING KEEP FORECAST 1 AND 10 HOUR FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS HIGH ENOUGH
TO HAMPER ELEVATED FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL. A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS AND FORECAST LOWS FOR SATURDAY APRIL 25

NEWARK NJ...34/1936......33
BRIDGEPORT CT 32/1956....34
CENTRAL PARK NY 29/1919..36
LAGUARDIA NY 36/1971.....38
KENNEDY NY *37/1971......36
ISLIP NY 36/2012.........31

*AND PREVIOUS YEARS

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NYZ067>070-
     078>081.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NJZ002-004-
     103>105-107.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...24/PW
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...24/PW
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...24/PW
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KOKX 242005
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
405 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PERSIST OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF COAST STATES WILL TRACK TO
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY THURSDAY AND CONTINUING NORTHEAST INTO
THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
UPPER LOW WEAKENS SLIGHTLY TONIGHT AS IT REMAINS CENTERED OVER
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. HEIGHTS RISE SLIGHTLY ACROSS OUR AREA
TONIGHT.

AT THE SURFACE...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION REMAINING WEST OF THE AREA AS LOW PRESSURE REMAINS
STATIONARY OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

MODELS DO SHOW PLENTY OF DRYING TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW LOSES IT/S
GRIP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE NW. THESE
WINDS THOUGH ARE EXPECTED TO LIGHTEN LATE TONIGHT.

WILL CONVERT THE FREEZE WATCH TO A WARNING AS A MOS BLEND WOULD
SUPPORT TEMPS CLOSE TO OR BELOW FREEZING. A FEW ZONES ARE
BORDERLINE...BUT WILL BE QUITE CLOSE OVERNIGHT.

THE MAIN FORECAST DILEMMA IS THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MIXING AND
EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER WHICH COULD IMPACT TEMPS. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR BUT FEEL FREEZE WARNING IS WARRANTED ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MORE OF THE SAME AS UPPER LOW REMAINS SITUATED TO THE NORTHEAST.
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES SOMEWHAT...AND TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE.
EXPECT HIGH/S TO STILL FALL SHORT OF SEASONAL NORMS...BUT WILL BE
WARMER. WEAK WAA DUE TO RISING HEIGHTS AND MORE SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP
TEMPS WARM THROUGH THE 50S...APPROACHING 60 IN SPOTS.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE CENTRAL MID WEST
AND TRACKS TO OUR SOUTH. THIS LOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH MID WEST
SHORTWAVE...WHICH SHOULD GET BLOCKED BY THE PESKY LOW OFF THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. AS SUCH...DRY WEATHER IS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 40S IN AND AROUND
NYC TO THE LOWER 30S IN THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A BLOCKY PATTERN LOOKS TO DOMINATE MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD
ACROSS THE CONUS. A LARGE PERSISTENT CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO PLAGUE THE NORTHEAST US THROUGH TUESDAY WHICH WILL
RESULT IN GENERALLY MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS
POSSIBLE...MAINLY DURING THE DAY...AS SPOKES OF VORTICITY WITHIN
THE CYCLONIC FLOW ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA.

THIS CUTOFF FINALLY EXITS ON TUE WITH RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TUE
NIGHT AND WED. DRY CONDS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED.

MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE WITH HOW QUICKLY THE RIDGE AXIS
MOVES THROUGH AND THE NEXT TROUGH APPROACHES. GFS IS FASTER THAN THE
EC. WHAT BOTH MODELS DO AGREE ON IS THE PHASING OF A NRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WITH A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS RESULTING IN A
DEEP TROUGH THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUE NIGHT. THE SFC LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CUTOFF TRACKS THROUGH THE GULF COAST STATES TO
OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST ON THU AND CONTINUES ON A NE TRACK
THROUGH FRI. HOWEVER DUE TO THE DIFFERENCES ALOFT THE EC IS
STRONGER...SLOWER AND CLOSER TO THE COAST...BUT HAS TRENDED FURTHER
OFFSHORE THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...THAN THE GFS. HAVE MAINTAINED CHC POPS
AT THE COAST...AND HAVE SCALED BACK TO SCHC FURTHER INLAND.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVELS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SLOWLY WEAKENS WITH BRIEF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST INTO TONIGHT. THIS HIGH WILL
RETREAT FARTHER NORTH SATURDAY. VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH
GUSTY NW FLOW MUCH OF THE TIME.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND GUSTS COULD BECOME OCCASIONAL TONIGHT.
GUSTS COULD OCCASIONALLY PEAK TO 30-35 KT BEFORE 03Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND GUSTS COULD BECOME OCCASIONAL TONIGHT.
GUSTS COULD OCCASIONALLY PEAK TO 30-35 KT BEFORE 03Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND GUSTS COULD BECOME OCCASIONAL TONIGHT.
GUSTS COULD OCCASIONALLY PEAK TO 30-35 KT BEFORE 02Z.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND GUSTS COULD BECOME OCCASIONAL EARLY
THIS EVENING. GUSTS COULD OCCASIONALLY PEAK TO NEAR 30 KT BEFORE 00Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND GUSTS COULD BECOME OCCASIONAL EARLY
THIS EVENING. GUSTS COULD OCCASIONALLY PEAK TO NEAR 30 KT BEFORE 01Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND GUSTS COULD BECOME OCCASIONAL THIS
EVENING. GUSTS COULD OCCASIONALLY PEAK TO 30-35 KT BEFORE 01Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SAT THROUGH WED...
.SAT...VFR. NW FLOW BACKING TO W-SW SAT AFTN.
.SAT NIGHT-SUN NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.
.MON-TUE...POSSIBLE MVFR WITH SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT-WED...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT DUE TO GUSTY NW
WINDS THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SEAS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW 5 FEET OVER THE OCEAN WATERS...AND BELOW 2 TO 3 FT
ELSEWHERE. WINDS ABATE SOMEWHAT LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES SOMEWHAT.

THEREAFTER...A WEAK PRES GRADIENT WILL KEEP SUB-ADVSY CONDS
ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. MARGINAL NW GUSTS
ARE POSSIBLE LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE ON THE OCEAN WATERS AS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY INTO THE EVENING ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED. HOWEVER...ALTHOUGH LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL
HAS FALLEN OVER THE PREVIOUS 3 DAYS...SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL MONDAY IS
HELPING KEEP FORECAST 1 AND 10 HOUR FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS HIGH ENOUGH
TO HAMPER ELEVATED FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL. A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS AND FORECAST LOWS FOR SATURDAY APRIL 25

NEWARK NJ...34/1936......33
BRIDGEPORT CT 32/1956....34
CENTRAL PARK NY 29/1919..36
LAGUARDIA NY 36/1971.....38
KENNEDY NY *37/1971......36
ISLIP NY 36/2012.........31

*AND PREVIOUS YEARS

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NYZ067>070-
     078>081.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NJZ002-004-
     103>105-107.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...24/PW
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...24/PW
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...24/PW
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KBOX 241854
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
254 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH
SPOTTY SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES. UNSETTLED WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS WELL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
THROUGH 8 PM...
UPPER LOW AND COLD POOL IN PLACE OVER NEW NEW ENGLAND. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS LOW AND
CROSSES NEW ENGLAND TOWARD 00Z. RH FORECAST PROFILES SHOW A LAYER
OF HIGH RH VALUES BETWEEN 850 AND 700 MB THROUGH 00Z...ALTHOUGH
VERTICAL MOTION IS SUBSIDENT. WE COULD SEE A FEW SPRINKLES OR
FLURRIES LATE TODAY/THIS EVENING.

TONIGHT...LINGERING CLOUD SHIELD UNDER THE UPPER LOW AND COLD
POOL...BUT THIS SHOULD START TO LIFT OUT TO THE NORTH AND EAST
SOMEWHAT. SO WE EXPECT AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING TONIGHT WITH THE
BEST CHANCE OVER CONNECTICUT. PRESSURE GRADIENT STAYS ENOUGH TO
KEEP THE AIR MOVING...SO FROST IS NOT LIKELY EXCEPT POSSIBLY IN
THE MOST SHELTERED OF LOCATIONS THAT CLEAR. ON THE OTHER HAND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT OR PERHAPS A DEGREE OR
TWO COOLER. EXPECTED RANGE IS IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S...AND
FREEZING TEMPS IN PARTS OF THE ACTIVE GROWING ZONE /CT-RI-
SOUTHEAST MA/. WE PLAN ON CONVERTING THE EXISTING FREEZE WATCH TO
A FREEZE WARNING FOR NORTHERN CT AND NORTHWEST RI.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...UPPER CLOUD SHIELD AND COLD POOL WILL BE FOCUSSED OVER
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO AFFECT US. DAYTIME
HEATING AND A SHORTWAVE CYCLING AROUND THE LOW MAY PUSH CLOUDS
BACK OUR WAY DURING THE DAY. THE SURFACE LAYER WILL BE DRIER...SO
MOST ATTEMPTS AT PRECIPITATION SHOULD EVAPORATE ON THE WAY DOWN.
TEMPS AT 850 MB ARE FORECAST AROUND -2C...WHICH SUPPORTS MAX SFC
TEMPS IN THE 50S. WINDS ALOFT IN THE MIXED LAYER REACH 20
KNOTS...SO EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF GUSTS EITHER SIDE OF 20.

SATURDAY NIGHT...

WEAK RIDGE BUILDS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND PROVIDING CLEARING
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
30S...SO MIN SFC TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT WEEK
* SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND INTO MID-NEXT WEEK
* LOW CONFIDENCE ON COASTAL SYSTEM THURS/FRIDAY.

OVERVIEW...

DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER THE REGION BEGINS TO GRADUALLY PIVOT EAST
OFFSHORE NOVA SCOTIA ON SAT BUT THEN BECOMES NOTABLY ELONGATED BY
SUN AS ADDITIONAL ENERGY DROPS SOUTH DOWN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THE
00Z GEM IS THE WEAKEST SOLUTION WHILE THE 00Z GFS/00Z NAM/00Z UKMET
AND 00Z ECMWF ARE ALL BETTER CLUSTERED WITH DEPTH AND TIMING THROUGH
SUNDAY.

BY NEXT WEEK APPEARS UNSETTLED WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
CONTINUE AS BLOCKING PATTERN PERSIST...SUPPORTED BY -NAO/-AO/+PNA.
UPPER LEVEL LOW AND CONTINUED COLD POOL WILL KEEP ON SPINNING OVER
THE REGION MONDAY AND BEGIN TO EXIT LATE TUESDAY. STILL LOTS OF
QUESTIONS ABOUT THE MIGRATION OF THE DESERT CUTOFF LOW AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND ITS POTENTIAL WRAP UP INTO ANOTHER CLOSED
LOW FOR NEW ENGLAND. A KEY COMPONENT OF THE SYSTEM`S INTENSIFICATION
WILL BE THE INCORPORATION OF SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING SHORTWAVE ENERGY
AND WHERE THIS NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL PHASE WITH THE CUTOFF
SYSTEM. CURRENTLY THE 00Z GFS PHASES THE SOUTHERN PLAIN WAVE FASTER
THAN THE EC WHICH IS MORE AMPLIFIED. THE EC/S NORTHERN STREAM IS
FARTHER EASTWARD THAN THE GFS...IN WHICH THE EC SEEMS TO PULL A
COASTAL LOW CLOSER TO THE REGION BY THUS/FRI. REGARDLESS APPEARS
THAT A COASTAL LOW WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE REGION LATE IN THE
WORK WEEK. FELT ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE WAS BEST FOR THE WORK WEEK.

DETAILS...

* SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

STRONG CUTOFF LOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE NORTHEAST DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTER CONUS WILL BUILD
PUSHING THE BULK OF THE ENERGY OFFSHORE SAT NIGHT BEFORE THE LOW
MIGRATES BACK TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND BY SUNDAY. STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE NORTH INCREASING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ON SUNDAY. TEMPS MAY REACH 60F AS COLD POOL IS STILL
OFFSHORE.

* MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL RETROGRADE INCREASING THE CHANCES OF PRECIP
AS 2 POTENT SHORTWAVES MORE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM THE NORTH. COLD
POOL ALOFT SEEMS TO SIT OVER THE REGION AS WELL. CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
WILL BE HIGHER THAN FOR THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND AS LAPSE RATES WILL BE
STEEPER AND SOME HINTS OF INSTABILITY. INCREASED POPS ESP ALONG THE
MASS COASTLINE WHERE FORCING COULD OCCUR IF SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS.
TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER ON MONDAY THANKS
TO THE STRONG COLD POOL OVER THE REGION.


* WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...LOW CONFIDENCE.

STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. EVERYTHING
IS DEPENDENT ON HOW THE CUT-OFF LOW IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND
DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM WAVES BEHAVES. CURRENTLY BELIEVE WED IS A
TRANSITION DAY WITH MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION BUT
KEEPING TEMPS BELOW NORMAL. WATCHING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL
LOW ON THURSDAY/FRIDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND EC HAVE SHOWN THE COASTAL
LOW THIS TIME AROUND...SO CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT IT WILL
OCCUR. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE ENSEMBLES. THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY
FARTHER OFFSHORE AND FASTER COMPARED TO THE EC...REGARDLESS WET
WEATHER AND COOL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

THIS AFTERNOON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING
20-22 KNOTS.

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR
IN SPOTTY SHOWERS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING
AROUND 20 KNOTS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH LIGHT WIND.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCT SHOWERS. SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST COAST EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS GUST 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH STRONGEST GUSTS
OFFSHORE. SEAS LINGER NEAR 5 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH
SATURDAY AND THEN SUBSIDE. SEAS BELOW 5 FEET ALL OTHER WATERS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LINGERS ON THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING DUE TO SEAS AND OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS. SCA ALSO
LINGERS ON RI AND BLOCK ISLAND SOUNDS TONIGHT MOSTLY DUE TO WINDS
AT OR NEAR 25 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THOUGH TUESDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST. HIT OR MISS SHOWERS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY. WIND AND
SEAS TO REMAINS BELOW SCA ON SUNDAY. POTENT COLD POOL WILL FILTER
IN FROM THE NORTH CREATING STRONG CAA AN INCREASE WINDS/SEAS FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SCA MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...NONE.
RI...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR RIZ001-003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 241854
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
254 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH
SPOTTY SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES. UNSETTLED WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS WELL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
THROUGH 8 PM...
UPPER LOW AND COLD POOL IN PLACE OVER NEW NEW ENGLAND. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS LOW AND
CROSSES NEW ENGLAND TOWARD 00Z. RH FORECAST PROFILES SHOW A LAYER
OF HIGH RH VALUES BETWEEN 850 AND 700 MB THROUGH 00Z...ALTHOUGH
VERTICAL MOTION IS SUBSIDENT. WE COULD SEE A FEW SPRINKLES OR
FLURRIES LATE TODAY/THIS EVENING.

TONIGHT...LINGERING CLOUD SHIELD UNDER THE UPPER LOW AND COLD
POOL...BUT THIS SHOULD START TO LIFT OUT TO THE NORTH AND EAST
SOMEWHAT. SO WE EXPECT AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING TONIGHT WITH THE
BEST CHANCE OVER CONNECTICUT. PRESSURE GRADIENT STAYS ENOUGH TO
KEEP THE AIR MOVING...SO FROST IS NOT LIKELY EXCEPT POSSIBLY IN
THE MOST SHELTERED OF LOCATIONS THAT CLEAR. ON THE OTHER HAND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT OR PERHAPS A DEGREE OR
TWO COOLER. EXPECTED RANGE IS IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S...AND
FREEZING TEMPS IN PARTS OF THE ACTIVE GROWING ZONE /CT-RI-
SOUTHEAST MA/. WE PLAN ON CONVERTING THE EXISTING FREEZE WATCH TO
A FREEZE WARNING FOR NORTHERN CT AND NORTHWEST RI.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...UPPER CLOUD SHIELD AND COLD POOL WILL BE FOCUSSED OVER
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO AFFECT US. DAYTIME
HEATING AND A SHORTWAVE CYCLING AROUND THE LOW MAY PUSH CLOUDS
BACK OUR WAY DURING THE DAY. THE SURFACE LAYER WILL BE DRIER...SO
MOST ATTEMPTS AT PRECIPITATION SHOULD EVAPORATE ON THE WAY DOWN.
TEMPS AT 850 MB ARE FORECAST AROUND -2C...WHICH SUPPORTS MAX SFC
TEMPS IN THE 50S. WINDS ALOFT IN THE MIXED LAYER REACH 20
KNOTS...SO EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF GUSTS EITHER SIDE OF 20.

SATURDAY NIGHT...

WEAK RIDGE BUILDS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND PROVIDING CLEARING
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
30S...SO MIN SFC TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT WEEK
* SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND INTO MID-NEXT WEEK
* LOW CONFIDENCE ON COASTAL SYSTEM THURS/FRIDAY.

OVERVIEW...

DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER THE REGION BEGINS TO GRADUALLY PIVOT EAST
OFFSHORE NOVA SCOTIA ON SAT BUT THEN BECOMES NOTABLY ELONGATED BY
SUN AS ADDITIONAL ENERGY DROPS SOUTH DOWN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THE
00Z GEM IS THE WEAKEST SOLUTION WHILE THE 00Z GFS/00Z NAM/00Z UKMET
AND 00Z ECMWF ARE ALL BETTER CLUSTERED WITH DEPTH AND TIMING THROUGH
SUNDAY.

BY NEXT WEEK APPEARS UNSETTLED WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
CONTINUE AS BLOCKING PATTERN PERSIST...SUPPORTED BY -NAO/-AO/+PNA.
UPPER LEVEL LOW AND CONTINUED COLD POOL WILL KEEP ON SPINNING OVER
THE REGION MONDAY AND BEGIN TO EXIT LATE TUESDAY. STILL LOTS OF
QUESTIONS ABOUT THE MIGRATION OF THE DESERT CUTOFF LOW AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND ITS POTENTIAL WRAP UP INTO ANOTHER CLOSED
LOW FOR NEW ENGLAND. A KEY COMPONENT OF THE SYSTEM`S INTENSIFICATION
WILL BE THE INCORPORATION OF SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING SHORTWAVE ENERGY
AND WHERE THIS NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL PHASE WITH THE CUTOFF
SYSTEM. CURRENTLY THE 00Z GFS PHASES THE SOUTHERN PLAIN WAVE FASTER
THAN THE EC WHICH IS MORE AMPLIFIED. THE EC/S NORTHERN STREAM IS
FARTHER EASTWARD THAN THE GFS...IN WHICH THE EC SEEMS TO PULL A
COASTAL LOW CLOSER TO THE REGION BY THUS/FRI. REGARDLESS APPEARS
THAT A COASTAL LOW WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE REGION LATE IN THE
WORK WEEK. FELT ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE WAS BEST FOR THE WORK WEEK.

DETAILS...

* SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

STRONG CUTOFF LOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE NORTHEAST DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTER CONUS WILL BUILD
PUSHING THE BULK OF THE ENERGY OFFSHORE SAT NIGHT BEFORE THE LOW
MIGRATES BACK TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND BY SUNDAY. STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE NORTH INCREASING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ON SUNDAY. TEMPS MAY REACH 60F AS COLD POOL IS STILL
OFFSHORE.

* MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL RETROGRADE INCREASING THE CHANCES OF PRECIP
AS 2 POTENT SHORTWAVES MORE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM THE NORTH. COLD
POOL ALOFT SEEMS TO SIT OVER THE REGION AS WELL. CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
WILL BE HIGHER THAN FOR THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND AS LAPSE RATES WILL BE
STEEPER AND SOME HINTS OF INSTABILITY. INCREASED POPS ESP ALONG THE
MASS COASTLINE WHERE FORCING COULD OCCUR IF SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS.
TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER ON MONDAY THANKS
TO THE STRONG COLD POOL OVER THE REGION.


* WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...LOW CONFIDENCE.

STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. EVERYTHING
IS DEPENDENT ON HOW THE CUT-OFF LOW IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND
DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM WAVES BEHAVES. CURRENTLY BELIEVE WED IS A
TRANSITION DAY WITH MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION BUT
KEEPING TEMPS BELOW NORMAL. WATCHING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL
LOW ON THURSDAY/FRIDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND EC HAVE SHOWN THE COASTAL
LOW THIS TIME AROUND...SO CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT IT WILL
OCCUR. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE ENSEMBLES. THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY
FARTHER OFFSHORE AND FASTER COMPARED TO THE EC...REGARDLESS WET
WEATHER AND COOL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

THIS AFTERNOON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING
20-22 KNOTS.

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR
IN SPOTTY SHOWERS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING
AROUND 20 KNOTS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH LIGHT WIND.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCT SHOWERS. SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST COAST EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS GUST 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH STRONGEST GUSTS
OFFSHORE. SEAS LINGER NEAR 5 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH
SATURDAY AND THEN SUBSIDE. SEAS BELOW 5 FEET ALL OTHER WATERS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LINGERS ON THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING DUE TO SEAS AND OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS. SCA ALSO
LINGERS ON RI AND BLOCK ISLAND SOUNDS TONIGHT MOSTLY DUE TO WINDS
AT OR NEAR 25 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THOUGH TUESDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST. HIT OR MISS SHOWERS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY. WIND AND
SEAS TO REMAINS BELOW SCA ON SUNDAY. POTENT COLD POOL WILL FILTER
IN FROM THE NORTH CREATING STRONG CAA AN INCREASE WINDS/SEAS FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SCA MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...NONE.
RI...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR RIZ001-003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 241800
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
200 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH
SPOTTY SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES. UNSETTLED WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS WELL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

THROUGH 8 PM...
UPPER LOW AND COLD POOL IN PLACE OVER NEW NEW ENGLAND. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS LOW AND
CROSSES NEW ENGLAND TOWARD 00Z. RH FORECAST PROFILES SHOW A LAYER
OF HIGH RH VALUES BETWEEN 850 AND 700 MB THROUGH 00Z...ALTHOUGH
VERTICAL MOTION IS SUBSIDENT. WE COULD SEE A FEW SPRINKLES OR
FLURRIES LATE TODAY/THIS EVENING.

TONIGHT...LINGERING CLOUD SHIELD UNDER THE UPPER LOW AND COLD
POOL...BUT THIS SHOULD START TO LIFT OUT TO THE NORTH AND EAST
SOMEWHAT. SO WE EXPECT AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING TONIGHT WITH THE
BEST CHANCE OVER CONNECTICUT. PRESSURE GRADIENT STAYS ENOUGH TO
KEEP THE AIR MOVING...SO FROST IS NOT LIKELY EXCEPT POSSIBLY IN
THE MOST SHELTERED OF LOCATIONS THAT CLEAR. ON THE OTHER HAND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT OR PERHAPS A DEGREE OR
TWO COOLER. EXPECTED RANGE IS IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S...AND
FREEZING TEMPS IN PARTS OF THE ACTIVE GROWING ZONE /CT-RI-
SOUTHEAST MA/. WE PLAN ON CONVERTING THE EXISTING FREEZE WATCH TO
A FREEZE WARNING FOR NORTHERN CT AND NORTHWEST RI.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

SATURDAY...UPPER CLOUD SHIELD AND COLD POOL WILL BE FOCUSSED OVER
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO AFFECT US. DAYTIME
HEATING AND A SHORTWAVE CYCLING AROUND THE LOW MAY PUSH CLOUDS
BACK OUR WAY DURING THE DAY. THE SURFACE LAYER WILL BE DRIER...SO
MOST ATTEMPTS AT PRECIPITATION SHOULD EVAPORATE ON THE WAY DOWN.
TEMPS AT 850 MB ARE FORECAST AROUND -2C...WHICH SUPPORTS MAX SFC
TEMPS IN THE 50S. WINDS ALOFT IN THE MIXED LAYER REACH 20
KNOTS...SO EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF GUSTS EITHER SIDE OF 20.

SATURDAY NIGHT...

WEAK RIDGE BUILDS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND PROVIDING CLEARING
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
30S...SO MIN SFC TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT WEEK
* SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND INTO MID-NEXT WEEK
* LOW CONFIDENCE ON COASTAL SYSTEM THURS/FRIDAY.

OVERVIEW...

DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER THE REGION BEGINS TO GRADUALLY PIVOT EAST
OFFSHORE NOVA SCOTIA ON SAT BUT THEN BECOMES NOTABLY ELONGATED BY
SUN AS ADDITIONAL ENERGY DROPS SOUTH DOWN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THE
00Z GEM IS THE WEAKEST SOLUTION WHILE THE 00Z GFS/00Z NAM/00Z UKMET
AND 00Z ECMWF ARE ALL BETTER CLUSTERED WITH DEPTH AND TIMING THROUGH
SUNDAY.

BY NEXT WEEK APPEARS UNSETTLED WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
CONTINUE AS BLOCKING PATTERN PERSIST...SUPPORTED BY -NAO/-AO/+PNA.
UPPER LEVEL LOW AND CONTINUED COLD POOL WILL KEEP ON SPINNING OVER
THE REGION MONDAY AND BEGIN TO EXIT LATE TUESDAY. STILL LOTS OF
QUESTIONS ABOUT THE MIGRATION OF THE DESERT CUTOFF LOW AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND ITS POTENTIAL WRAP UP INTO ANOTHER CLOSED
LOW FOR NEW ENGLAND. A KEY COMPONENT OF THE SYSTEM`S INTENSIFICATION
WILL BE THE INCORPORATION OF SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING SHORTWAVE ENERGY
AND WHERE THIS NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL PHASE WITH THE CUTOFF
SYSTEM. CURRENTLY THE 00Z GFS PHASES THE SOUTHERN PLAIN WAVE FASTER
THAN THE EC WHICH IS MORE AMPLIFIED. THE EC/S NORTHERN STREAM IS
FARTHER EASTWARD THAN THE GFS...IN WHICH THE EC SEEMS TO PULL A
COASTAL LOW CLOSER TO THE REGION BY THUS/FRI. REGARDLESS APPEARS
THAT A COASTAL LOW WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE REGION LATE IN THE
WORK WEEK. FELT ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE WAS BEST FOR THE WORK WEEK.

DETAILS...

* SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

STRONG CUTOFF LOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE NORTHEAST DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTER CONUS WILL BUILD
PUSHING THE BULK OF THE ENERGY OFFSHORE SAT NIGHT BEFORE THE LOW
MIGRATES BACK TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND BY SUNDAY. STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE NORTH INCREASING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ON SUNDAY. TEMPS MAY REACH 60F AS COLD POOL IS STILL
OFFSHORE.

* MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL RETROGRADE INCREASING THE CHANCES OF PRECIP
AS 2 POTENT SHORTWAVES MORE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM THE NORTH. COLD
POOL ALOFT SEEMS TO SIT OVER THE REGION AS WELL. CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
WILL BE HIGHER THAN FOR THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND AS LAPSE RATES WILL BE
STEEPER AND SOME HINTS OF INSTABILITY. INCREASED POPS ESP ALONG THE
MASS COASTLINE WHERE FORCING COULD OCCUR IF SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS.
TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER ON MONDAY THANKS
TO THE STRONG COLD POOL OVER THE REGION.


* WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...LOW CONFIDENCE.

STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. EVERYTHING
IS DEPENDENT ON HOW THE CUT-OFF LOW IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND
DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM WAVES BEHAVES. CURRENTLY BELIEVE WED IS A
TRANSITION DAY WITH MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION BUT
KEEPING TEMPS BELOW NORMAL. WATCHING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL
LOW ON THURSDAY/FRIDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND EC HAVE SHOWN THE COASTAL
LOW THIS TIME AROUND...SO CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT IT WILL
OCCUR. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE ENSEMBLES. THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY
FARTHER OFFSHORE AND FASTER COMPARED TO THE EC...REGARDLESS WET
WEATHER AND COOL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

THIS AFTERNOON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING
20-22 KNOTS.

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR
IN SPOTTY SHOWERS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING
AROUND 20 KNOTS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH LIGHT WIND.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCT SHOWERS. SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST COAST EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

TODAY...HIGH OVERALL CONFIDENCE.

1000 AM UPDATE...WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST AT OR ABOVE 25KTS ACROSS
SOME OF THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. EXPECT THESE GUSTS TO CONTINUE
UNTIL AROUND NOON...SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL THAT TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WEST- NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 20 KT.
SEAS LINGER AROUND 5 FEET ON THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST OUTER
WATERS. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BRIEF PERIOD WHERE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NOT MET. THOUGHT IT BEST TO KEEP SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES GOING CONSISTENTLY ACROSS THE OUTER COASTAL
WATERS...RATHER THAN TAKING THEM DOWN...ONLY TO HAVE TO HOIST THEM
AGAIN LATER.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THOUGH TUESDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST. HIT OR MISS SHOWERS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY. WIND AND
SEAS TO REMAINS BELOW SCA ON SUNDAY. POTENT COLD POOL WILL FILTER
IN FROM THE NORTH CREATING STRONG CAA AN INCREASE WINDS/SEAS FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SCA MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     CTZ002>004.
MA...NONE.
RI...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     RIZ001-003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN/NMB




000
FXUS61 KBOX 241800
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
200 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH
SPOTTY SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES. UNSETTLED WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS WELL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

THROUGH 8 PM...
UPPER LOW AND COLD POOL IN PLACE OVER NEW NEW ENGLAND. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS LOW AND
CROSSES NEW ENGLAND TOWARD 00Z. RH FORECAST PROFILES SHOW A LAYER
OF HIGH RH VALUES BETWEEN 850 AND 700 MB THROUGH 00Z...ALTHOUGH
VERTICAL MOTION IS SUBSIDENT. WE COULD SEE A FEW SPRINKLES OR
FLURRIES LATE TODAY/THIS EVENING.

TONIGHT...LINGERING CLOUD SHIELD UNDER THE UPPER LOW AND COLD
POOL...BUT THIS SHOULD START TO LIFT OUT TO THE NORTH AND EAST
SOMEWHAT. SO WE EXPECT AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING TONIGHT WITH THE
BEST CHANCE OVER CONNECTICUT. PRESSURE GRADIENT STAYS ENOUGH TO
KEEP THE AIR MOVING...SO FROST IS NOT LIKELY EXCEPT POSSIBLY IN
THE MOST SHELTERED OF LOCATIONS THAT CLEAR. ON THE OTHER HAND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT OR PERHAPS A DEGREE OR
TWO COOLER. EXPECTED RANGE IS IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S...AND
FREEZING TEMPS IN PARTS OF THE ACTIVE GROWING ZONE /CT-RI-
SOUTHEAST MA/. WE PLAN ON CONVERTING THE EXISTING FREEZE WATCH TO
A FREEZE WARNING FOR NORTHERN CT AND NORTHWEST RI.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

SATURDAY...UPPER CLOUD SHIELD AND COLD POOL WILL BE FOCUSSED OVER
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO AFFECT US. DAYTIME
HEATING AND A SHORTWAVE CYCLING AROUND THE LOW MAY PUSH CLOUDS
BACK OUR WAY DURING THE DAY. THE SURFACE LAYER WILL BE DRIER...SO
MOST ATTEMPTS AT PRECIPITATION SHOULD EVAPORATE ON THE WAY DOWN.
TEMPS AT 850 MB ARE FORECAST AROUND -2C...WHICH SUPPORTS MAX SFC
TEMPS IN THE 50S. WINDS ALOFT IN THE MIXED LAYER REACH 20
KNOTS...SO EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF GUSTS EITHER SIDE OF 20.

SATURDAY NIGHT...

WEAK RIDGE BUILDS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND PROVIDING CLEARING
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
30S...SO MIN SFC TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT WEEK
* SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND INTO MID-NEXT WEEK
* LOW CONFIDENCE ON COASTAL SYSTEM THURS/FRIDAY.

OVERVIEW...

DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER THE REGION BEGINS TO GRADUALLY PIVOT EAST
OFFSHORE NOVA SCOTIA ON SAT BUT THEN BECOMES NOTABLY ELONGATED BY
SUN AS ADDITIONAL ENERGY DROPS SOUTH DOWN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THE
00Z GEM IS THE WEAKEST SOLUTION WHILE THE 00Z GFS/00Z NAM/00Z UKMET
AND 00Z ECMWF ARE ALL BETTER CLUSTERED WITH DEPTH AND TIMING THROUGH
SUNDAY.

BY NEXT WEEK APPEARS UNSETTLED WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
CONTINUE AS BLOCKING PATTERN PERSIST...SUPPORTED BY -NAO/-AO/+PNA.
UPPER LEVEL LOW AND CONTINUED COLD POOL WILL KEEP ON SPINNING OVER
THE REGION MONDAY AND BEGIN TO EXIT LATE TUESDAY. STILL LOTS OF
QUESTIONS ABOUT THE MIGRATION OF THE DESERT CUTOFF LOW AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND ITS POTENTIAL WRAP UP INTO ANOTHER CLOSED
LOW FOR NEW ENGLAND. A KEY COMPONENT OF THE SYSTEM`S INTENSIFICATION
WILL BE THE INCORPORATION OF SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING SHORTWAVE ENERGY
AND WHERE THIS NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL PHASE WITH THE CUTOFF
SYSTEM. CURRENTLY THE 00Z GFS PHASES THE SOUTHERN PLAIN WAVE FASTER
THAN THE EC WHICH IS MORE AMPLIFIED. THE EC/S NORTHERN STREAM IS
FARTHER EASTWARD THAN THE GFS...IN WHICH THE EC SEEMS TO PULL A
COASTAL LOW CLOSER TO THE REGION BY THUS/FRI. REGARDLESS APPEARS
THAT A COASTAL LOW WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE REGION LATE IN THE
WORK WEEK. FELT ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE WAS BEST FOR THE WORK WEEK.

DETAILS...

* SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

STRONG CUTOFF LOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE NORTHEAST DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTER CONUS WILL BUILD
PUSHING THE BULK OF THE ENERGY OFFSHORE SAT NIGHT BEFORE THE LOW
MIGRATES BACK TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND BY SUNDAY. STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE NORTH INCREASING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ON SUNDAY. TEMPS MAY REACH 60F AS COLD POOL IS STILL
OFFSHORE.

* MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL RETROGRADE INCREASING THE CHANCES OF PRECIP
AS 2 POTENT SHORTWAVES MORE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM THE NORTH. COLD
POOL ALOFT SEEMS TO SIT OVER THE REGION AS WELL. CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
WILL BE HIGHER THAN FOR THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND AS LAPSE RATES WILL BE
STEEPER AND SOME HINTS OF INSTABILITY. INCREASED POPS ESP ALONG THE
MASS COASTLINE WHERE FORCING COULD OCCUR IF SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS.
TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER ON MONDAY THANKS
TO THE STRONG COLD POOL OVER THE REGION.


* WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...LOW CONFIDENCE.

STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. EVERYTHING
IS DEPENDENT ON HOW THE CUT-OFF LOW IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND
DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM WAVES BEHAVES. CURRENTLY BELIEVE WED IS A
TRANSITION DAY WITH MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION BUT
KEEPING TEMPS BELOW NORMAL. WATCHING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL
LOW ON THURSDAY/FRIDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND EC HAVE SHOWN THE COASTAL
LOW THIS TIME AROUND...SO CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT IT WILL
OCCUR. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE ENSEMBLES. THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY
FARTHER OFFSHORE AND FASTER COMPARED TO THE EC...REGARDLESS WET
WEATHER AND COOL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

THIS AFTERNOON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING
20-22 KNOTS.

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR
IN SPOTTY SHOWERS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING
AROUND 20 KNOTS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH LIGHT WIND.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCT SHOWERS. SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST COAST EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

TODAY...HIGH OVERALL CONFIDENCE.

1000 AM UPDATE...WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST AT OR ABOVE 25KTS ACROSS
SOME OF THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. EXPECT THESE GUSTS TO CONTINUE
UNTIL AROUND NOON...SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL THAT TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WEST- NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 20 KT.
SEAS LINGER AROUND 5 FEET ON THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST OUTER
WATERS. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BRIEF PERIOD WHERE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NOT MET. THOUGHT IT BEST TO KEEP SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES GOING CONSISTENTLY ACROSS THE OUTER COASTAL
WATERS...RATHER THAN TAKING THEM DOWN...ONLY TO HAVE TO HOIST THEM
AGAIN LATER.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THOUGH TUESDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST. HIT OR MISS SHOWERS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY. WIND AND
SEAS TO REMAINS BELOW SCA ON SUNDAY. POTENT COLD POOL WILL FILTER
IN FROM THE NORTH CREATING STRONG CAA AN INCREASE WINDS/SEAS FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SCA MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     CTZ002>004.
MA...NONE.
RI...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     RIZ001-003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN/NMB



000
FXUS61 KALY 241748
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
148 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE STORM IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT...AS A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES CIRCULATE AROUND IT AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. EACH
DISTURBANCE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASED CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT...NOTHING MUCH HAS CHANGED FROM BEFORE...LOTS OF
CLOUDS...SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS AND CHILLY
TEMPERATURES. IN FACT AT ALBANY...TEMPERATURES AT 100 PM STILL
ONLY 40 DEGREES.

ONCE AGAIN DEALING WITH A COLD ATMOSPHERE WITH THE FREEZING
TEMPERATURE JUST OFF THE DECK. THE FLOW REMAINS CYCLONIC SO IT LOOKS
AS IF THE CLOUDS ARE HERE TO STAY ONCE MORE.

FOR THIS UPDATED...DECIDED TO LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES ANOTHER
DEGREE OR TWO. LOOK FOR HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID OR UPPER 40S IN THE
VALLEYS...MID 30S TO LOWER 40S HIGHER TERRAIN.

A BRISK WIND 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH WILL MAKE THESE
VALUES FEEL ABOUT 10 DEGREES COLDER.

ALSO BELIEVE MOSTLY SNOW (OR GRAUPEL) WILL FALL ONCE MORE SO HAVE
SNOW SHOWERS WITH TEMPERATURES AS HIGH AS 43 DEGREES (DUE TO THE
EXCEPTIONALLY COLD AIR ALOFT). ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
CONFINED TO GRASSY AREAS OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.


TONIGHT...A COMPACT SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER WESTERN
QUEBEC...IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE SOUTHEASTWARD BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
SOME WEAK SYNOPTIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY ALLOW FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO LINGER INTO THIS
EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THEN...INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE AND RISING HEIGHTS SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE AREAL COVERAGE
OF ANY SNOW SHOWERS TO DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT...ALONG WITH
CLEARING SKIES. WINDS SHOULD PERSIST MUCH OF THE NIGHT...BUT COULD
TREND DOWNWARD TOWARD DAYBREAK...ALLOWING TEMPS TO FALL TO OR
BELOW FREEZING ACROSS A LARGER PORTION OF THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT...INCLUDING MANY VALLEY AREAS. HAVE SIDED WITH THE COOLER
GUIDANCE IN MOST AREAS...WITH WIDESPREAD 20S EXPECTED...EXCEPT
CLOSER TO 30 IN VALLEY AREAS. SHOULD WINDS DECREASE EVEN
QUICKER THAN EXPECTED...MIN TEMPS COULD BE COLDER.

SATURDAY...IT APPEARS THAT OUR REGION WILL LIE BETWEEN THE
SPRAWLING UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS EASTERN CANADA/CANADIAN
MARITIMES...AND A POTENT SHORTWAVE TRACKING WELL SOUTH OF THE
REGION INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. ENHANCED UPPER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS SHOULD PROMOTE SUBSIDENCE...AND
MUCH LESS IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. TEMPS
SHOULD RESPOND...CLIMBING INTO THE 55-60 RANGE FOR VALLEYS...AND
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS. EVEN WARMER MAX
TEMPS COULD OCCUR...AS MIXING DEPTHS COULD BECOME QUITE DEEP BY
LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY AT TIMES THROUGH THE
DAY...PERHAPS REACHING AROUND 30 MPH AT TIMES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
LARGE 500HPA CUTOFF LOW ROTATES ABOUT BUT REMAINS IN THE
MARITIMES...GULF OF MAINE AND OVER THE NORTHEAST USA THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...BEFORE FINALLY LIFTING SLOWLY OUT TO SEA TUESDAY.
THE ECMWF AND GFS FEATURE THIS LIFTING OUT...WHILE THE GEM KEEPS
THE CUT OFF CENTER AND SFC LOW WELL WEST OVER NEW ENGLAND. WILL
CONSIDER THE GEM THE OUTLIER AT THIS TIME GIVEN PREVIOUS RUNS AND
ENSEMBLES.

THE 5000HPA SHORT WV PARADE AROUND 500HPA CUTOFF WILL
PERSIST...BOTH THOSE ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN SYSTEM AND OTHERS
DROPPING INTO THE SYSTEM. AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO
THE REGION FM THE NW...INTO SUNDAY. AFTERWARD SFC LOW MOVING E TO OUR
SOUTH WILL DEEPEN INTO AN INTENSE OCEANIC STORM WELL OFFSHORE...BUT
CLOSE ENOUGH THAT COMBINED W/LARGE SFC HIGH OVER GREAT LAKES
REESTABLISHES A BRISK WIND GRADIENT OVER FORECAST AREA.

INCRG CLOUDS AND -SHRA/SN WILL BE TIED TO PASSING SHORT WAVES WITH
GREATEST THREAT LATE SUN INTO MON. THE BEGINNING AND END OF THE
PERIOD OFFER THE BEST CHC FOR PS SKIES...AND SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPS. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S WITH LOW 60S SOUTH. LOWS
IN THE 30S AND LOW 40S, TUES TEMPS WILL KICK UP A NOTCH...WITH
MOST AREAS REACHING THE 60S EXCEPT THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

WILL LARGELY POPULATE WITH GFSMOS...AND BLEND INTO CURRENT
FORECAST...UNLESS ECMWF SIGNIFICANTLY DEPARTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WPC SEEMS HAVE LARGELY GONE WITH AN ECMWF (LIGHT) SOLUTION THIS
AM. IN THIS SCENARIO RIDGING AT 500HPA BUILDS EAST...WITH BULK OF
SHORT WV ENERGY PASSING TO OUR SOUTH IN A SE STATES CUT OFF...AND
ANOTHER 500HPA CUTOFF ARRIVING TOWARD END OF PERIOD FM OTTAWA VALLEY.
THE GFS IS ONLY SIMILAR WITH THIS TIL THU...THEN MUCH MORE GREATLY
INTENSIFIES THE N BRANCH CUTOFF OVER NE USA...WITH JANUARY LIKE
BOMB ON THE SEABOARD...AS 520 DEKA METER METER CUT OFF PROPAGATES ACROSS THE
REGION. TO PUT IT MILDLY THIS LOOKS A BIT EXTREME AND OVERDONE.

IN THE WPC/ECMWF SOLUTION LARGE SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO NE
WED...COASTAL STORM PASSES JUST S OF REGION GLANCING SE AREAS WITH
CLOUDS AND CHC POPS THU AND SFC HIGH REASSERTS ITSELF FRI. THE
ECMWF HAS A DEEPER COASTAL STORM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH TOWARD THE END
OF THE PERIOD...BUT STRONGER COLD AIR ADVECTION IN ITS WAKE.

FOR NOW WILL POPULATE WITH WPC AND RETAIN CONTINUITY WITH CURRENT
FORECAST. TEMPS WILL RETURN TO NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.

THERE COULD SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON THAT COULD
BRIEFLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO MVFR OR EVEN IFR BUT ONLY A FEW
MINUTES AT MOST...AND NOT WORTH EVEN PLACING AS A TEMPO IN THE TAFS.

OTHERWISE VFR CIGS AROUND 5000 FEET AGL WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
EVENING PEAK. THE WIND WILL AVERAGE 10-15 KTS FROM A WEST OR
NORTHWEST DIRECTION WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO PERHAPS 30KTS...ESPECIALLY
AT KPSF AND KALB.

THE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING...AND THE CIGS WILL BECOME
SCATTERED LATER THIS EVENING AS WELL...FIRST AT KPOU THEN THE OTHER
TAF SITES AS WELL.

SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY DAY WITH EXCELLENT
VISIBILITIES. THE WIND WILL BECOME A LITTLE GUSTY AGAIN...WNW AROUND
10KTS...GUSTING TO 20KTS AFTER 12Z-14Z.

A CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT
BUT THE FLOW WILL BECOME LESS CYCLONIC ON SATURDAY.


OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WIND GUSTS UP OF 25-35 MPH LIKELY TODAY...

RH VALUES FALL TO 25-30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON IN VALLEY AREAS...

WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF GREATER THAN ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH
OCCURRED BETWEEN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF THIS WEEK.

OUR REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
LOW ANCHORED ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL PERSIST TODAY...AND RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 25-35
PERCENT RANGE IN VALLEYS...AND 35-50 PERCENT ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON.

THE RH SHOULD RECOVER TO 75-90 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN DROP INTO
THE 25-35 PERCENT RANGE ONCE AGAIN SAT AFTERNOON. WINDS SAT MAY
STILL OCCASIONALLY GUST UP TO 25-30 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF
MOSTLY SNOW IN THE MOUNTAIN. ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE
LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR HYDROLOGICAL
SERVICE AREA (HSA).

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/GJM/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/KL/GJM
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...HWJIV/KL/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER



000
FXUS61 KALY 241748
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
148 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE STORM IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT...AS A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES CIRCULATE AROUND IT AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. EACH
DISTURBANCE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASED CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT...NOTHING MUCH HAS CHANGED FROM BEFORE...LOTS OF
CLOUDS...SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS AND CHILLY
TEMPERATURES. IN FACT AT ALBANY...TEMPERATURES AT 100 PM STILL
ONLY 40 DEGREES.

ONCE AGAIN DEALING WITH A COLD ATMOSPHERE WITH THE FREEZING
TEMPERATURE JUST OFF THE DECK. THE FLOW REMAINS CYCLONIC SO IT LOOKS
AS IF THE CLOUDS ARE HERE TO STAY ONCE MORE.

FOR THIS UPDATED...DECIDED TO LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES ANOTHER
DEGREE OR TWO. LOOK FOR HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID OR UPPER 40S IN THE
VALLEYS...MID 30S TO LOWER 40S HIGHER TERRAIN.

A BRISK WIND 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH WILL MAKE THESE
VALUES FEEL ABOUT 10 DEGREES COLDER.

ALSO BELIEVE MOSTLY SNOW (OR GRAUPEL) WILL FALL ONCE MORE SO HAVE
SNOW SHOWERS WITH TEMPERATURES AS HIGH AS 43 DEGREES (DUE TO THE
EXCEPTIONALLY COLD AIR ALOFT). ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
CONFINED TO GRASSY AREAS OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.


TONIGHT...A COMPACT SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER WESTERN
QUEBEC...IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE SOUTHEASTWARD BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
SOME WEAK SYNOPTIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY ALLOW FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO LINGER INTO THIS
EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THEN...INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE AND RISING HEIGHTS SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE AREAL COVERAGE
OF ANY SNOW SHOWERS TO DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT...ALONG WITH
CLEARING SKIES. WINDS SHOULD PERSIST MUCH OF THE NIGHT...BUT COULD
TREND DOWNWARD TOWARD DAYBREAK...ALLOWING TEMPS TO FALL TO OR
BELOW FREEZING ACROSS A LARGER PORTION OF THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT...INCLUDING MANY VALLEY AREAS. HAVE SIDED WITH THE COOLER
GUIDANCE IN MOST AREAS...WITH WIDESPREAD 20S EXPECTED...EXCEPT
CLOSER TO 30 IN VALLEY AREAS. SHOULD WINDS DECREASE EVEN
QUICKER THAN EXPECTED...MIN TEMPS COULD BE COLDER.

SATURDAY...IT APPEARS THAT OUR REGION WILL LIE BETWEEN THE
SPRAWLING UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS EASTERN CANADA/CANADIAN
MARITIMES...AND A POTENT SHORTWAVE TRACKING WELL SOUTH OF THE
REGION INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. ENHANCED UPPER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS SHOULD PROMOTE SUBSIDENCE...AND
MUCH LESS IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. TEMPS
SHOULD RESPOND...CLIMBING INTO THE 55-60 RANGE FOR VALLEYS...AND
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS. EVEN WARMER MAX
TEMPS COULD OCCUR...AS MIXING DEPTHS COULD BECOME QUITE DEEP BY
LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY AT TIMES THROUGH THE
DAY...PERHAPS REACHING AROUND 30 MPH AT TIMES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
LARGE 500HPA CUTOFF LOW ROTATES ABOUT BUT REMAINS IN THE
MARITIMES...GULF OF MAINE AND OVER THE NORTHEAST USA THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...BEFORE FINALLY LIFTING SLOWLY OUT TO SEA TUESDAY.
THE ECMWF AND GFS FEATURE THIS LIFTING OUT...WHILE THE GEM KEEPS
THE CUT OFF CENTER AND SFC LOW WELL WEST OVER NEW ENGLAND. WILL
CONSIDER THE GEM THE OUTLIER AT THIS TIME GIVEN PREVIOUS RUNS AND
ENSEMBLES.

THE 5000HPA SHORT WV PARADE AROUND 500HPA CUTOFF WILL
PERSIST...BOTH THOSE ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN SYSTEM AND OTHERS
DROPPING INTO THE SYSTEM. AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO
THE REGION FM THE NW...INTO SUNDAY. AFTERWARD SFC LOW MOVING E TO OUR
SOUTH WILL DEEPEN INTO AN INTENSE OCEANIC STORM WELL OFFSHORE...BUT
CLOSE ENOUGH THAT COMBINED W/LARGE SFC HIGH OVER GREAT LAKES
REESTABLISHES A BRISK WIND GRADIENT OVER FORECAST AREA.

INCRG CLOUDS AND -SHRA/SN WILL BE TIED TO PASSING SHORT WAVES WITH
GREATEST THREAT LATE SUN INTO MON. THE BEGINNING AND END OF THE
PERIOD OFFER THE BEST CHC FOR PS SKIES...AND SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPS. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S WITH LOW 60S SOUTH. LOWS
IN THE 30S AND LOW 40S, TUES TEMPS WILL KICK UP A NOTCH...WITH
MOST AREAS REACHING THE 60S EXCEPT THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

WILL LARGELY POPULATE WITH GFSMOS...AND BLEND INTO CURRENT
FORECAST...UNLESS ECMWF SIGNIFICANTLY DEPARTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WPC SEEMS HAVE LARGELY GONE WITH AN ECMWF (LIGHT) SOLUTION THIS
AM. IN THIS SCENARIO RIDGING AT 500HPA BUILDS EAST...WITH BULK OF
SHORT WV ENERGY PASSING TO OUR SOUTH IN A SE STATES CUT OFF...AND
ANOTHER 500HPA CUTOFF ARRIVING TOWARD END OF PERIOD FM OTTAWA VALLEY.
THE GFS IS ONLY SIMILAR WITH THIS TIL THU...THEN MUCH MORE GREATLY
INTENSIFIES THE N BRANCH CUTOFF OVER NE USA...WITH JANUARY LIKE
BOMB ON THE SEABOARD...AS 520 DEKA METER METER CUT OFF PROPAGATES ACROSS THE
REGION. TO PUT IT MILDLY THIS LOOKS A BIT EXTREME AND OVERDONE.

IN THE WPC/ECMWF SOLUTION LARGE SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO NE
WED...COASTAL STORM PASSES JUST S OF REGION GLANCING SE AREAS WITH
CLOUDS AND CHC POPS THU AND SFC HIGH REASSERTS ITSELF FRI. THE
ECMWF HAS A DEEPER COASTAL STORM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH TOWARD THE END
OF THE PERIOD...BUT STRONGER COLD AIR ADVECTION IN ITS WAKE.

FOR NOW WILL POPULATE WITH WPC AND RETAIN CONTINUITY WITH CURRENT
FORECAST. TEMPS WILL RETURN TO NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.

THERE COULD SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON THAT COULD
BRIEFLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO MVFR OR EVEN IFR BUT ONLY A FEW
MINUTES AT MOST...AND NOT WORTH EVEN PLACING AS A TEMPO IN THE TAFS.

OTHERWISE VFR CIGS AROUND 5000 FEET AGL WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
EVENING PEAK. THE WIND WILL AVERAGE 10-15 KTS FROM A WEST OR
NORTHWEST DIRECTION WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO PERHAPS 30KTS...ESPECIALLY
AT KPSF AND KALB.

THE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING...AND THE CIGS WILL BECOME
SCATTERED LATER THIS EVENING AS WELL...FIRST AT KPOU THEN THE OTHER
TAF SITES AS WELL.

SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY DAY WITH EXCELLENT
VISIBILITIES. THE WIND WILL BECOME A LITTLE GUSTY AGAIN...WNW AROUND
10KTS...GUSTING TO 20KTS AFTER 12Z-14Z.

A CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT
BUT THE FLOW WILL BECOME LESS CYCLONIC ON SATURDAY.


OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WIND GUSTS UP OF 25-35 MPH LIKELY TODAY...

RH VALUES FALL TO 25-30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON IN VALLEY AREAS...

WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF GREATER THAN ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH
OCCURRED BETWEEN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF THIS WEEK.

OUR REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
LOW ANCHORED ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL PERSIST TODAY...AND RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 25-35
PERCENT RANGE IN VALLEYS...AND 35-50 PERCENT ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON.

THE RH SHOULD RECOVER TO 75-90 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN DROP INTO
THE 25-35 PERCENT RANGE ONCE AGAIN SAT AFTERNOON. WINDS SAT MAY
STILL OCCASIONALLY GUST UP TO 25-30 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF
MOSTLY SNOW IN THE MOUNTAIN. ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE
LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR HYDROLOGICAL
SERVICE AREA (HSA).

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/GJM/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/KL/GJM
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...HWJIV/KL/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER



000
FXUS61 KALY 241748
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
148 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE STORM IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT...AS A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES CIRCULATE AROUND IT AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. EACH
DISTURBANCE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASED CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT...NOTHING MUCH HAS CHANGED FROM BEFORE...LOTS OF
CLOUDS...SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS AND CHILLY
TEMPERATURES. IN FACT AT ALBANY...TEMPERATURES AT 100 PM STILL
ONLY 40 DEGREES.

ONCE AGAIN DEALING WITH A COLD ATMOSPHERE WITH THE FREEZING
TEMPERATURE JUST OFF THE DECK. THE FLOW REMAINS CYCLONIC SO IT LOOKS
AS IF THE CLOUDS ARE HERE TO STAY ONCE MORE.

FOR THIS UPDATED...DECIDED TO LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES ANOTHER
DEGREE OR TWO. LOOK FOR HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID OR UPPER 40S IN THE
VALLEYS...MID 30S TO LOWER 40S HIGHER TERRAIN.

A BRISK WIND 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH WILL MAKE THESE
VALUES FEEL ABOUT 10 DEGREES COLDER.

ALSO BELIEVE MOSTLY SNOW (OR GRAUPEL) WILL FALL ONCE MORE SO HAVE
SNOW SHOWERS WITH TEMPERATURES AS HIGH AS 43 DEGREES (DUE TO THE
EXCEPTIONALLY COLD AIR ALOFT). ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
CONFINED TO GRASSY AREAS OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.


TONIGHT...A COMPACT SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER WESTERN
QUEBEC...IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE SOUTHEASTWARD BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
SOME WEAK SYNOPTIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY ALLOW FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO LINGER INTO THIS
EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THEN...INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE AND RISING HEIGHTS SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE AREAL COVERAGE
OF ANY SNOW SHOWERS TO DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT...ALONG WITH
CLEARING SKIES. WINDS SHOULD PERSIST MUCH OF THE NIGHT...BUT COULD
TREND DOWNWARD TOWARD DAYBREAK...ALLOWING TEMPS TO FALL TO OR
BELOW FREEZING ACROSS A LARGER PORTION OF THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT...INCLUDING MANY VALLEY AREAS. HAVE SIDED WITH THE COOLER
GUIDANCE IN MOST AREAS...WITH WIDESPREAD 20S EXPECTED...EXCEPT
CLOSER TO 30 IN VALLEY AREAS. SHOULD WINDS DECREASE EVEN
QUICKER THAN EXPECTED...MIN TEMPS COULD BE COLDER.

SATURDAY...IT APPEARS THAT OUR REGION WILL LIE BETWEEN THE
SPRAWLING UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS EASTERN CANADA/CANADIAN
MARITIMES...AND A POTENT SHORTWAVE TRACKING WELL SOUTH OF THE
REGION INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. ENHANCED UPPER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS SHOULD PROMOTE SUBSIDENCE...AND
MUCH LESS IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. TEMPS
SHOULD RESPOND...CLIMBING INTO THE 55-60 RANGE FOR VALLEYS...AND
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS. EVEN WARMER MAX
TEMPS COULD OCCUR...AS MIXING DEPTHS COULD BECOME QUITE DEEP BY
LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY AT TIMES THROUGH THE
DAY...PERHAPS REACHING AROUND 30 MPH AT TIMES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
LARGE 500HPA CUTOFF LOW ROTATES ABOUT BUT REMAINS IN THE
MARITIMES...GULF OF MAINE AND OVER THE NORTHEAST USA THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...BEFORE FINALLY LIFTING SLOWLY OUT TO SEA TUESDAY.
THE ECMWF AND GFS FEATURE THIS LIFTING OUT...WHILE THE GEM KEEPS
THE CUT OFF CENTER AND SFC LOW WELL WEST OVER NEW ENGLAND. WILL
CONSIDER THE GEM THE OUTLIER AT THIS TIME GIVEN PREVIOUS RUNS AND
ENSEMBLES.

THE 5000HPA SHORT WV PARADE AROUND 500HPA CUTOFF WILL
PERSIST...BOTH THOSE ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN SYSTEM AND OTHERS
DROPPING INTO THE SYSTEM. AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO
THE REGION FM THE NW...INTO SUNDAY. AFTERWARD SFC LOW MOVING E TO OUR
SOUTH WILL DEEPEN INTO AN INTENSE OCEANIC STORM WELL OFFSHORE...BUT
CLOSE ENOUGH THAT COMBINED W/LARGE SFC HIGH OVER GREAT LAKES
REESTABLISHES A BRISK WIND GRADIENT OVER FORECAST AREA.

INCRG CLOUDS AND -SHRA/SN WILL BE TIED TO PASSING SHORT WAVES WITH
GREATEST THREAT LATE SUN INTO MON. THE BEGINNING AND END OF THE
PERIOD OFFER THE BEST CHC FOR PS SKIES...AND SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPS. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S WITH LOW 60S SOUTH. LOWS
IN THE 30S AND LOW 40S, TUES TEMPS WILL KICK UP A NOTCH...WITH
MOST AREAS REACHING THE 60S EXCEPT THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

WILL LARGELY POPULATE WITH GFSMOS...AND BLEND INTO CURRENT
FORECAST...UNLESS ECMWF SIGNIFICANTLY DEPARTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WPC SEEMS HAVE LARGELY GONE WITH AN ECMWF (LIGHT) SOLUTION THIS
AM. IN THIS SCENARIO RIDGING AT 500HPA BUILDS EAST...WITH BULK OF
SHORT WV ENERGY PASSING TO OUR SOUTH IN A SE STATES CUT OFF...AND
ANOTHER 500HPA CUTOFF ARRIVING TOWARD END OF PERIOD FM OTTAWA VALLEY.
THE GFS IS ONLY SIMILAR WITH THIS TIL THU...THEN MUCH MORE GREATLY
INTENSIFIES THE N BRANCH CUTOFF OVER NE USA...WITH JANUARY LIKE
BOMB ON THE SEABOARD...AS 520 DEKA METER METER CUT OFF PROPAGATES ACROSS THE
REGION. TO PUT IT MILDLY THIS LOOKS A BIT EXTREME AND OVERDONE.

IN THE WPC/ECMWF SOLUTION LARGE SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO NE
WED...COASTAL STORM PASSES JUST S OF REGION GLANCING SE AREAS WITH
CLOUDS AND CHC POPS THU AND SFC HIGH REASSERTS ITSELF FRI. THE
ECMWF HAS A DEEPER COASTAL STORM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH TOWARD THE END
OF THE PERIOD...BUT STRONGER COLD AIR ADVECTION IN ITS WAKE.

FOR NOW WILL POPULATE WITH WPC AND RETAIN CONTINUITY WITH CURRENT
FORECAST. TEMPS WILL RETURN TO NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.

THERE COULD SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON THAT COULD
BRIEFLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO MVFR OR EVEN IFR BUT ONLY A FEW
MINUTES AT MOST...AND NOT WORTH EVEN PLACING AS A TEMPO IN THE TAFS.

OTHERWISE VFR CIGS AROUND 5000 FEET AGL WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
EVENING PEAK. THE WIND WILL AVERAGE 10-15 KTS FROM A WEST OR
NORTHWEST DIRECTION WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO PERHAPS 30KTS...ESPECIALLY
AT KPSF AND KALB.

THE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING...AND THE CIGS WILL BECOME
SCATTERED LATER THIS EVENING AS WELL...FIRST AT KPOU THEN THE OTHER
TAF SITES AS WELL.

SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY DAY WITH EXCELLENT
VISIBILITIES. THE WIND WILL BECOME A LITTLE GUSTY AGAIN...WNW AROUND
10KTS...GUSTING TO 20KTS AFTER 12Z-14Z.

A CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT
BUT THE FLOW WILL BECOME LESS CYCLONIC ON SATURDAY.


OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WIND GUSTS UP OF 25-35 MPH LIKELY TODAY...

RH VALUES FALL TO 25-30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON IN VALLEY AREAS...

WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF GREATER THAN ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH
OCCURRED BETWEEN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF THIS WEEK.

OUR REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
LOW ANCHORED ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL PERSIST TODAY...AND RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 25-35
PERCENT RANGE IN VALLEYS...AND 35-50 PERCENT ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON.

THE RH SHOULD RECOVER TO 75-90 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN DROP INTO
THE 25-35 PERCENT RANGE ONCE AGAIN SAT AFTERNOON. WINDS SAT MAY
STILL OCCASIONALLY GUST UP TO 25-30 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF
MOSTLY SNOW IN THE MOUNTAIN. ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE
LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR HYDROLOGICAL
SERVICE AREA (HSA).

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/GJM/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/KL/GJM
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...HWJIV/KL/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER



000
FXUS61 KALY 241748
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
148 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE STORM IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT...AS A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES CIRCULATE AROUND IT AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. EACH
DISTURBANCE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASED CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT...NOTHING MUCH HAS CHANGED FROM BEFORE...LOTS OF
CLOUDS...SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS AND CHILLY
TEMPERATURES. IN FACT AT ALBANY...TEMPERATURES AT 100 PM STILL
ONLY 40 DEGREES.

ONCE AGAIN DEALING WITH A COLD ATMOSPHERE WITH THE FREEZING
TEMPERATURE JUST OFF THE DECK. THE FLOW REMAINS CYCLONIC SO IT LOOKS
AS IF THE CLOUDS ARE HERE TO STAY ONCE MORE.

FOR THIS UPDATED...DECIDED TO LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES ANOTHER
DEGREE OR TWO. LOOK FOR HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID OR UPPER 40S IN THE
VALLEYS...MID 30S TO LOWER 40S HIGHER TERRAIN.

A BRISK WIND 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH WILL MAKE THESE
VALUES FEEL ABOUT 10 DEGREES COLDER.

ALSO BELIEVE MOSTLY SNOW (OR GRAUPEL) WILL FALL ONCE MORE SO HAVE
SNOW SHOWERS WITH TEMPERATURES AS HIGH AS 43 DEGREES (DUE TO THE
EXCEPTIONALLY COLD AIR ALOFT). ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
CONFINED TO GRASSY AREAS OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.


TONIGHT...A COMPACT SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER WESTERN
QUEBEC...IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE SOUTHEASTWARD BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
SOME WEAK SYNOPTIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY ALLOW FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO LINGER INTO THIS
EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THEN...INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE AND RISING HEIGHTS SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE AREAL COVERAGE
OF ANY SNOW SHOWERS TO DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT...ALONG WITH
CLEARING SKIES. WINDS SHOULD PERSIST MUCH OF THE NIGHT...BUT COULD
TREND DOWNWARD TOWARD DAYBREAK...ALLOWING TEMPS TO FALL TO OR
BELOW FREEZING ACROSS A LARGER PORTION OF THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT...INCLUDING MANY VALLEY AREAS. HAVE SIDED WITH THE COOLER
GUIDANCE IN MOST AREAS...WITH WIDESPREAD 20S EXPECTED...EXCEPT
CLOSER TO 30 IN VALLEY AREAS. SHOULD WINDS DECREASE EVEN
QUICKER THAN EXPECTED...MIN TEMPS COULD BE COLDER.

SATURDAY...IT APPEARS THAT OUR REGION WILL LIE BETWEEN THE
SPRAWLING UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS EASTERN CANADA/CANADIAN
MARITIMES...AND A POTENT SHORTWAVE TRACKING WELL SOUTH OF THE
REGION INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. ENHANCED UPPER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS SHOULD PROMOTE SUBSIDENCE...AND
MUCH LESS IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. TEMPS
SHOULD RESPOND...CLIMBING INTO THE 55-60 RANGE FOR VALLEYS...AND
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS. EVEN WARMER MAX
TEMPS COULD OCCUR...AS MIXING DEPTHS COULD BECOME QUITE DEEP BY
LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY AT TIMES THROUGH THE
DAY...PERHAPS REACHING AROUND 30 MPH AT TIMES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
LARGE 500HPA CUTOFF LOW ROTATES ABOUT BUT REMAINS IN THE
MARITIMES...GULF OF MAINE AND OVER THE NORTHEAST USA THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...BEFORE FINALLY LIFTING SLOWLY OUT TO SEA TUESDAY.
THE ECMWF AND GFS FEATURE THIS LIFTING OUT...WHILE THE GEM KEEPS
THE CUT OFF CENTER AND SFC LOW WELL WEST OVER NEW ENGLAND. WILL
CONSIDER THE GEM THE OUTLIER AT THIS TIME GIVEN PREVIOUS RUNS AND
ENSEMBLES.

THE 5000HPA SHORT WV PARADE AROUND 500HPA CUTOFF WILL
PERSIST...BOTH THOSE ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN SYSTEM AND OTHERS
DROPPING INTO THE SYSTEM. AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO
THE REGION FM THE NW...INTO SUNDAY. AFTERWARD SFC LOW MOVING E TO OUR
SOUTH WILL DEEPEN INTO AN INTENSE OCEANIC STORM WELL OFFSHORE...BUT
CLOSE ENOUGH THAT COMBINED W/LARGE SFC HIGH OVER GREAT LAKES
REESTABLISHES A BRISK WIND GRADIENT OVER FORECAST AREA.

INCRG CLOUDS AND -SHRA/SN WILL BE TIED TO PASSING SHORT WAVES WITH
GREATEST THREAT LATE SUN INTO MON. THE BEGINNING AND END OF THE
PERIOD OFFER THE BEST CHC FOR PS SKIES...AND SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPS. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S WITH LOW 60S SOUTH. LOWS
IN THE 30S AND LOW 40S, TUES TEMPS WILL KICK UP A NOTCH...WITH
MOST AREAS REACHING THE 60S EXCEPT THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

WILL LARGELY POPULATE WITH GFSMOS...AND BLEND INTO CURRENT
FORECAST...UNLESS ECMWF SIGNIFICANTLY DEPARTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WPC SEEMS HAVE LARGELY GONE WITH AN ECMWF (LIGHT) SOLUTION THIS
AM. IN THIS SCENARIO RIDGING AT 500HPA BUILDS EAST...WITH BULK OF
SHORT WV ENERGY PASSING TO OUR SOUTH IN A SE STATES CUT OFF...AND
ANOTHER 500HPA CUTOFF ARRIVING TOWARD END OF PERIOD FM OTTAWA VALLEY.
THE GFS IS ONLY SIMILAR WITH THIS TIL THU...THEN MUCH MORE GREATLY
INTENSIFIES THE N BRANCH CUTOFF OVER NE USA...WITH JANUARY LIKE
BOMB ON THE SEABOARD...AS 520 DEKA METER METER CUT OFF PROPAGATES ACROSS THE
REGION. TO PUT IT MILDLY THIS LOOKS A BIT EXTREME AND OVERDONE.

IN THE WPC/ECMWF SOLUTION LARGE SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO NE
WED...COASTAL STORM PASSES JUST S OF REGION GLANCING SE AREAS WITH
CLOUDS AND CHC POPS THU AND SFC HIGH REASSERTS ITSELF FRI. THE
ECMWF HAS A DEEPER COASTAL STORM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH TOWARD THE END
OF THE PERIOD...BUT STRONGER COLD AIR ADVECTION IN ITS WAKE.

FOR NOW WILL POPULATE WITH WPC AND RETAIN CONTINUITY WITH CURRENT
FORECAST. TEMPS WILL RETURN TO NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.

THERE COULD SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON THAT COULD
BRIEFLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO MVFR OR EVEN IFR BUT ONLY A FEW
MINUTES AT MOST...AND NOT WORTH EVEN PLACING AS A TEMPO IN THE TAFS.

OTHERWISE VFR CIGS AROUND 5000 FEET AGL WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
EVENING PEAK. THE WIND WILL AVERAGE 10-15 KTS FROM A WEST OR
NORTHWEST DIRECTION WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO PERHAPS 30KTS...ESPECIALLY
AT KPSF AND KALB.

THE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING...AND THE CIGS WILL BECOME
SCATTERED LATER THIS EVENING AS WELL...FIRST AT KPOU THEN THE OTHER
TAF SITES AS WELL.

SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY DAY WITH EXCELLENT
VISIBILITIES. THE WIND WILL BECOME A LITTLE GUSTY AGAIN...WNW AROUND
10KTS...GUSTING TO 20KTS AFTER 12Z-14Z.

A CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT
BUT THE FLOW WILL BECOME LESS CYCLONIC ON SATURDAY.


OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WIND GUSTS UP OF 25-35 MPH LIKELY TODAY...

RH VALUES FALL TO 25-30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON IN VALLEY AREAS...

WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF GREATER THAN ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH
OCCURRED BETWEEN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF THIS WEEK.

OUR REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
LOW ANCHORED ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL PERSIST TODAY...AND RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 25-35
PERCENT RANGE IN VALLEYS...AND 35-50 PERCENT ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON.

THE RH SHOULD RECOVER TO 75-90 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN DROP INTO
THE 25-35 PERCENT RANGE ONCE AGAIN SAT AFTERNOON. WINDS SAT MAY
STILL OCCASIONALLY GUST UP TO 25-30 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF
MOSTLY SNOW IN THE MOUNTAIN. ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE
LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR HYDROLOGICAL
SERVICE AREA (HSA).

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/GJM/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/KL/GJM
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...HWJIV/KL/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER



000
FXUS61 KOKX 241723
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
123 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY TO THE EAST. MEANWHILE...LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PASS BY TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW
WILL DEEPEN OVER THE ATLANTIC DURING THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLE...THE AREA WILL
REMAIN DRY TODAY AS AN UPPER AND SURFACE LOW REMAIN ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY TO THE
WEST WITH RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT. A CYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST TO WEST WIND. TEMPERATURES HAVE STRUGGLED TO RISE
DUE TO COLD AIR IN PLACE AND CLOUD COVER. DID LOWER TEMPS
SLIGHTLY...WITH MID 40S TO AROUND 50 EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS CONTINUE TO MEANDER ACROSS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND SLOWLY FILL AS HIGHER PRESSURE
BUILDS TO THE WEST AND HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE. WITH A
COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE...SLIGHTLY LESS MIXING AND LESS CLOUD
COVER...TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE MORE LIKELY TO FALL TO FREEZING
OR BELOW ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
METROPOLITAN NEW YORK. SO A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION...SOME RECORD
LOWS WILL MAY BE SET...SEE CLIMATE SECTION. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY...AND THE AIRMASS WILL MODIFY
WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND LESS WIND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE LARGE UPR LOW SPINNING OVER
THE MARITIMES AND NERN CONUS. WITHIN THIS FLOW...A STRONG SHRTWV IS
PROGGED TO DROP THRU THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ERN ZONES...ON SUN. THIS
COULD BRING SOME ISOLD SHWRS. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING STRONGER
UPR ENERGY INTO THE REGION MON. THE ECMWF HOWEVER BRINGS THE MAIN
UPR LOW CENTER DOWN THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND AS A RESULT PROVIDES
BETTER DYNAMICS. FOR NOW KEPT POPS CAPPED AT ISOLD. IN
ADDITION...THE DEEPER ECMWF SOLN COULD RESULT IN SOME SNOW MIXING IN
MON NGT DUE TO THE MUCH COOLER COLUMN. RIDGING BUILDS IN TUE AND
WED...PRODUCING A WARMUP PARTICULARLY WRN ZONES. A SLOW MOVING
DEVELOPING LOW WILL BE THE NEXT FOCUS FOR PCPN TOWARDS THE END OF
NEXT WEEK. LEFT THU DRY FOR NOW AS THESE SYS TEND TO BE A BIT SLOWER
THAN PROGGED THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SLOWLY WEAKENS WITH BRIEF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST INTO TONIGHT. THIS HIGH
WILL RETREAT FARTHER NORTH SATURDAY. VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
WITH GUSTY NW FLOW MUCH OF THE TIME.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BACK 20 TO 40 DEGREES COMPARED TO
TAF THIS AFTN WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SFC TROF. GUSTS
COULD OCCASIONALLY PEAK TO 30-35 KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTN.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BACK 20 TO 40 DEGREES COMPARED TO
TAF THIS AFTN WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SFC TROF. GUSTS
COULD OCCASIONALLY PEAK TO 30-35 KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTN.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BACK 20 TO 40 DEGREES COMPARED TO
TAF THIS AFTN WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SFC TROF. GUSTS
COULD OCCASIONALLY PEAK TO 30-35 KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTN.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BACK 20 TO 40 DEGREES THIS AFT
WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SFC TROF. GUSTS COULD OCCASIONALLY
PEAK TO 30-35 KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTN.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS COULD OCCASIONALLY PEAK TO 30-35 KT AT
TIMES THROUGH THE AFTN.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BACK 20 TO 40 DEGREES COMPARED TO
TAF THIS AFTN WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SFC TROF. GUSTS
COULD OCCASIONALLY PEAK TO 30-35 KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTN.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SAT THROUGH WED...
.SAT...VFR. NW FLOW BACKING TO W-SW SAT AFTN.
.SAT NIGHT-SUN NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.
.MON-TUE...MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT-WED...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH LOW PRESSURE REMAINING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST
WATERS AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST...A PERSISTENT GUSTY
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES INTO TONIGHT. WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON
AND INTO TONIGHT TO LIKELY REACH 25 TO 30 KT AND THEN SLOWLY
SUBSIDE LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS
TOWARD THE WATERS AND THE LOW TO THE NORTHEAST WEAKENS. SEAS ON
THE OCEAN WATERS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. BECAUSE OF THE
FREQUENT GUSTY WIND UP TO 30 KT AN ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED ON ALL
THE FORECAST WATERS THROUGH 2 AM EDT SATURDAY AND ON THE OCEAN
WATERS THROUGH 600 AM SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ON THE OCEAN MAY
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY MORNING AND THE ADVISORY MA NEED TO BE
EXTENDED.

WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS SUN AND MON. WINDS MAY APPROACH SCA LVLS
MON NGT AND TUE AS LOW PRES DEEPENS OVER THE ATLC...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE ERN OCEAN. WINDS AND SEAS THEN PROGGED TO FALL BLW SCA LVLS WED
AND THU.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL FALL BELOW 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON AND
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH ARE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...ALTHOUGH LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH OF
RAINFALL WILL HAVE FALLEN OVER THE PREVIOUS 3 DAYS...SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL MONDAY IS HELPING KEEP FORECAST 1 AND 10 HOUR FUEL
MOISTURE LEVELS HIGH ENOUGH TO HAMPER ELEVATED FIRE GROWTH
POTENTIAL. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS AND FORECAST LOWS FOR SATURDAY APRIL 25

NEWARK NJ...34/1936...36
BRIDGEPORT CT 32/1956...34
CENTRAL PARK NY 29/1919...37
LAGUARDIA NY 36/1971...39
KENNEDY NY *37/1971...37
ISLIP NY 36/2012...31

*AND PREVIOUS YEARS

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     CTZ005>012.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     NYZ067>070-078>081.
NJ...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     NJZ002-004-103>105-107.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/MET
NEAR TERM...JMC/MET/PW
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JMC/MET/PW
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JMC/MET
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KOKX 241723
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
123 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY TO THE EAST. MEANWHILE...LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PASS BY TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW
WILL DEEPEN OVER THE ATLANTIC DURING THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLE...THE AREA WILL
REMAIN DRY TODAY AS AN UPPER AND SURFACE LOW REMAIN ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY TO THE
WEST WITH RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT. A CYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST TO WEST WIND. TEMPERATURES HAVE STRUGGLED TO RISE
DUE TO COLD AIR IN PLACE AND CLOUD COVER. DID LOWER TEMPS
SLIGHTLY...WITH MID 40S TO AROUND 50 EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS CONTINUE TO MEANDER ACROSS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND SLOWLY FILL AS HIGHER PRESSURE
BUILDS TO THE WEST AND HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE. WITH A
COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE...SLIGHTLY LESS MIXING AND LESS CLOUD
COVER...TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE MORE LIKELY TO FALL TO FREEZING
OR BELOW ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
METROPOLITAN NEW YORK. SO A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION...SOME RECORD
LOWS WILL MAY BE SET...SEE CLIMATE SECTION. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY...AND THE AIRMASS WILL MODIFY
WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND LESS WIND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE LARGE UPR LOW SPINNING OVER
THE MARITIMES AND NERN CONUS. WITHIN THIS FLOW...A STRONG SHRTWV IS
PROGGED TO DROP THRU THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ERN ZONES...ON SUN. THIS
COULD BRING SOME ISOLD SHWRS. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING STRONGER
UPR ENERGY INTO THE REGION MON. THE ECMWF HOWEVER BRINGS THE MAIN
UPR LOW CENTER DOWN THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND AS A RESULT PROVIDES
BETTER DYNAMICS. FOR NOW KEPT POPS CAPPED AT ISOLD. IN
ADDITION...THE DEEPER ECMWF SOLN COULD RESULT IN SOME SNOW MIXING IN
MON NGT DUE TO THE MUCH COOLER COLUMN. RIDGING BUILDS IN TUE AND
WED...PRODUCING A WARMUP PARTICULARLY WRN ZONES. A SLOW MOVING
DEVELOPING LOW WILL BE THE NEXT FOCUS FOR PCPN TOWARDS THE END OF
NEXT WEEK. LEFT THU DRY FOR NOW AS THESE SYS TEND TO BE A BIT SLOWER
THAN PROGGED THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SLOWLY WEAKENS WITH BRIEF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST INTO TONIGHT. THIS HIGH
WILL RETREAT FARTHER NORTH SATURDAY. VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
WITH GUSTY NW FLOW MUCH OF THE TIME.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BACK 20 TO 40 DEGREES COMPARED TO
TAF THIS AFTN WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SFC TROF. GUSTS
COULD OCCASIONALLY PEAK TO 30-35 KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTN.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BACK 20 TO 40 DEGREES COMPARED TO
TAF THIS AFTN WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SFC TROF. GUSTS
COULD OCCASIONALLY PEAK TO 30-35 KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTN.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BACK 20 TO 40 DEGREES COMPARED TO
TAF THIS AFTN WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SFC TROF. GUSTS
COULD OCCASIONALLY PEAK TO 30-35 KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTN.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BACK 20 TO 40 DEGREES THIS AFT
WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SFC TROF. GUSTS COULD OCCASIONALLY
PEAK TO 30-35 KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTN.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS COULD OCCASIONALLY PEAK TO 30-35 KT AT
TIMES THROUGH THE AFTN.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BACK 20 TO 40 DEGREES COMPARED TO
TAF THIS AFTN WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SFC TROF. GUSTS
COULD OCCASIONALLY PEAK TO 30-35 KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTN.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SAT THROUGH WED...
.SAT...VFR. NW FLOW BACKING TO W-SW SAT AFTN.
.SAT NIGHT-SUN NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.
.MON-TUE...MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT-WED...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH LOW PRESSURE REMAINING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST
WATERS AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST...A PERSISTENT GUSTY
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES INTO TONIGHT. WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON
AND INTO TONIGHT TO LIKELY REACH 25 TO 30 KT AND THEN SLOWLY
SUBSIDE LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS
TOWARD THE WATERS AND THE LOW TO THE NORTHEAST WEAKENS. SEAS ON
THE OCEAN WATERS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. BECAUSE OF THE
FREQUENT GUSTY WIND UP TO 30 KT AN ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED ON ALL
THE FORECAST WATERS THROUGH 2 AM EDT SATURDAY AND ON THE OCEAN
WATERS THROUGH 600 AM SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ON THE OCEAN MAY
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY MORNING AND THE ADVISORY MA NEED TO BE
EXTENDED.

WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS SUN AND MON. WINDS MAY APPROACH SCA LVLS
MON NGT AND TUE AS LOW PRES DEEPENS OVER THE ATLC...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE ERN OCEAN. WINDS AND SEAS THEN PROGGED TO FALL BLW SCA LVLS WED
AND THU.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL FALL BELOW 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON AND
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH ARE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...ALTHOUGH LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH OF
RAINFALL WILL HAVE FALLEN OVER THE PREVIOUS 3 DAYS...SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL MONDAY IS HELPING KEEP FORECAST 1 AND 10 HOUR FUEL
MOISTURE LEVELS HIGH ENOUGH TO HAMPER ELEVATED FIRE GROWTH
POTENTIAL. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS AND FORECAST LOWS FOR SATURDAY APRIL 25

NEWARK NJ...34/1936...36
BRIDGEPORT CT 32/1956...34
CENTRAL PARK NY 29/1919...37
LAGUARDIA NY 36/1971...39
KENNEDY NY *37/1971...37
ISLIP NY 36/2012...31

*AND PREVIOUS YEARS

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     CTZ005>012.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     NYZ067>070-078>081.
NJ...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     NJZ002-004-103>105-107.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/MET
NEAR TERM...JMC/MET/PW
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JMC/MET/PW
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JMC/MET
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KOKX 241723
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
123 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY TO THE EAST. MEANWHILE...LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PASS BY TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW
WILL DEEPEN OVER THE ATLANTIC DURING THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLE...THE AREA WILL
REMAIN DRY TODAY AS AN UPPER AND SURFACE LOW REMAIN ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY TO THE
WEST WITH RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT. A CYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST TO WEST WIND. TEMPERATURES HAVE STRUGGLED TO RISE
DUE TO COLD AIR IN PLACE AND CLOUD COVER. DID LOWER TEMPS
SLIGHTLY...WITH MID 40S TO AROUND 50 EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS CONTINUE TO MEANDER ACROSS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND SLOWLY FILL AS HIGHER PRESSURE
BUILDS TO THE WEST AND HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE. WITH A
COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE...SLIGHTLY LESS MIXING AND LESS CLOUD
COVER...TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE MORE LIKELY TO FALL TO FREEZING
OR BELOW ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
METROPOLITAN NEW YORK. SO A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION...SOME RECORD
LOWS WILL MAY BE SET...SEE CLIMATE SECTION. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY...AND THE AIRMASS WILL MODIFY
WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND LESS WIND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE LARGE UPR LOW SPINNING OVER
THE MARITIMES AND NERN CONUS. WITHIN THIS FLOW...A STRONG SHRTWV IS
PROGGED TO DROP THRU THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ERN ZONES...ON SUN. THIS
COULD BRING SOME ISOLD SHWRS. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING STRONGER
UPR ENERGY INTO THE REGION MON. THE ECMWF HOWEVER BRINGS THE MAIN
UPR LOW CENTER DOWN THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND AS A RESULT PROVIDES
BETTER DYNAMICS. FOR NOW KEPT POPS CAPPED AT ISOLD. IN
ADDITION...THE DEEPER ECMWF SOLN COULD RESULT IN SOME SNOW MIXING IN
MON NGT DUE TO THE MUCH COOLER COLUMN. RIDGING BUILDS IN TUE AND
WED...PRODUCING A WARMUP PARTICULARLY WRN ZONES. A SLOW MOVING
DEVELOPING LOW WILL BE THE NEXT FOCUS FOR PCPN TOWARDS THE END OF
NEXT WEEK. LEFT THU DRY FOR NOW AS THESE SYS TEND TO BE A BIT SLOWER
THAN PROGGED THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SLOWLY WEAKENS WITH BRIEF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST INTO TONIGHT. THIS HIGH
WILL RETREAT FARTHER NORTH SATURDAY. VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
WITH GUSTY NW FLOW MUCH OF THE TIME.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BACK 20 TO 40 DEGREES COMPARED TO
TAF THIS AFTN WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SFC TROF. GUSTS
COULD OCCASIONALLY PEAK TO 30-35 KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTN.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BACK 20 TO 40 DEGREES COMPARED TO
TAF THIS AFTN WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SFC TROF. GUSTS
COULD OCCASIONALLY PEAK TO 30-35 KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTN.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BACK 20 TO 40 DEGREES COMPARED TO
TAF THIS AFTN WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SFC TROF. GUSTS
COULD OCCASIONALLY PEAK TO 30-35 KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTN.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BACK 20 TO 40 DEGREES THIS AFT
WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SFC TROF. GUSTS COULD OCCASIONALLY
PEAK TO 30-35 KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTN.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS COULD OCCASIONALLY PEAK TO 30-35 KT AT
TIMES THROUGH THE AFTN.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BACK 20 TO 40 DEGREES COMPARED TO
TAF THIS AFTN WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SFC TROF. GUSTS
COULD OCCASIONALLY PEAK TO 30-35 KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTN.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SAT THROUGH WED...
.SAT...VFR. NW FLOW BACKING TO W-SW SAT AFTN.
.SAT NIGHT-SUN NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.
.MON-TUE...MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT-WED...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH LOW PRESSURE REMAINING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST
WATERS AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST...A PERSISTENT GUSTY
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES INTO TONIGHT. WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON
AND INTO TONIGHT TO LIKELY REACH 25 TO 30 KT AND THEN SLOWLY
SUBSIDE LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS
TOWARD THE WATERS AND THE LOW TO THE NORTHEAST WEAKENS. SEAS ON
THE OCEAN WATERS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. BECAUSE OF THE
FREQUENT GUSTY WIND UP TO 30 KT AN ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED ON ALL
THE FORECAST WATERS THROUGH 2 AM EDT SATURDAY AND ON THE OCEAN
WATERS THROUGH 600 AM SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ON THE OCEAN MAY
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY MORNING AND THE ADVISORY MA NEED TO BE
EXTENDED.

WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS SUN AND MON. WINDS MAY APPROACH SCA LVLS
MON NGT AND TUE AS LOW PRES DEEPENS OVER THE ATLC...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE ERN OCEAN. WINDS AND SEAS THEN PROGGED TO FALL BLW SCA LVLS WED
AND THU.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL FALL BELOW 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON AND
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH ARE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...ALTHOUGH LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH OF
RAINFALL WILL HAVE FALLEN OVER THE PREVIOUS 3 DAYS...SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL MONDAY IS HELPING KEEP FORECAST 1 AND 10 HOUR FUEL
MOISTURE LEVELS HIGH ENOUGH TO HAMPER ELEVATED FIRE GROWTH
POTENTIAL. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS AND FORECAST LOWS FOR SATURDAY APRIL 25

NEWARK NJ...34/1936...36
BRIDGEPORT CT 32/1956...34
CENTRAL PARK NY 29/1919...37
LAGUARDIA NY 36/1971...39
KENNEDY NY *37/1971...37
ISLIP NY 36/2012...31

*AND PREVIOUS YEARS

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     CTZ005>012.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     NYZ067>070-078>081.
NJ...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     NJZ002-004-103>105-107.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/MET
NEAR TERM...JMC/MET/PW
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JMC/MET/PW
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JMC/MET
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KOKX 241723
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
123 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY TO THE EAST. MEANWHILE...LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PASS BY TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW
WILL DEEPEN OVER THE ATLANTIC DURING THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLE...THE AREA WILL
REMAIN DRY TODAY AS AN UPPER AND SURFACE LOW REMAIN ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY TO THE
WEST WITH RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT. A CYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST TO WEST WIND. TEMPERATURES HAVE STRUGGLED TO RISE
DUE TO COLD AIR IN PLACE AND CLOUD COVER. DID LOWER TEMPS
SLIGHTLY...WITH MID 40S TO AROUND 50 EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS CONTINUE TO MEANDER ACROSS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND SLOWLY FILL AS HIGHER PRESSURE
BUILDS TO THE WEST AND HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE. WITH A
COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE...SLIGHTLY LESS MIXING AND LESS CLOUD
COVER...TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE MORE LIKELY TO FALL TO FREEZING
OR BELOW ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
METROPOLITAN NEW YORK. SO A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION...SOME RECORD
LOWS WILL MAY BE SET...SEE CLIMATE SECTION. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY...AND THE AIRMASS WILL MODIFY
WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND LESS WIND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE LARGE UPR LOW SPINNING OVER
THE MARITIMES AND NERN CONUS. WITHIN THIS FLOW...A STRONG SHRTWV IS
PROGGED TO DROP THRU THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ERN ZONES...ON SUN. THIS
COULD BRING SOME ISOLD SHWRS. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING STRONGER
UPR ENERGY INTO THE REGION MON. THE ECMWF HOWEVER BRINGS THE MAIN
UPR LOW CENTER DOWN THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND AS A RESULT PROVIDES
BETTER DYNAMICS. FOR NOW KEPT POPS CAPPED AT ISOLD. IN
ADDITION...THE DEEPER ECMWF SOLN COULD RESULT IN SOME SNOW MIXING IN
MON NGT DUE TO THE MUCH COOLER COLUMN. RIDGING BUILDS IN TUE AND
WED...PRODUCING A WARMUP PARTICULARLY WRN ZONES. A SLOW MOVING
DEVELOPING LOW WILL BE THE NEXT FOCUS FOR PCPN TOWARDS THE END OF
NEXT WEEK. LEFT THU DRY FOR NOW AS THESE SYS TEND TO BE A BIT SLOWER
THAN PROGGED THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SLOWLY WEAKENS WITH BRIEF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST INTO TONIGHT. THIS HIGH
WILL RETREAT FARTHER NORTH SATURDAY. VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
WITH GUSTY NW FLOW MUCH OF THE TIME.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BACK 20 TO 40 DEGREES COMPARED TO
TAF THIS AFTN WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SFC TROF. GUSTS
COULD OCCASIONALLY PEAK TO 30-35 KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTN.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BACK 20 TO 40 DEGREES COMPARED TO
TAF THIS AFTN WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SFC TROF. GUSTS
COULD OCCASIONALLY PEAK TO 30-35 KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTN.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BACK 20 TO 40 DEGREES COMPARED TO
TAF THIS AFTN WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SFC TROF. GUSTS
COULD OCCASIONALLY PEAK TO 30-35 KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTN.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BACK 20 TO 40 DEGREES THIS AFT
WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SFC TROF. GUSTS COULD OCCASIONALLY
PEAK TO 30-35 KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTN.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS COULD OCCASIONALLY PEAK TO 30-35 KT AT
TIMES THROUGH THE AFTN.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BACK 20 TO 40 DEGREES COMPARED TO
TAF THIS AFTN WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SFC TROF. GUSTS
COULD OCCASIONALLY PEAK TO 30-35 KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTN.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SAT THROUGH WED...
.SAT...VFR. NW FLOW BACKING TO W-SW SAT AFTN.
.SAT NIGHT-SUN NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.
.MON-TUE...MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT-WED...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH LOW PRESSURE REMAINING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST
WATERS AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST...A PERSISTENT GUSTY
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES INTO TONIGHT. WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON
AND INTO TONIGHT TO LIKELY REACH 25 TO 30 KT AND THEN SLOWLY
SUBSIDE LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS
TOWARD THE WATERS AND THE LOW TO THE NORTHEAST WEAKENS. SEAS ON
THE OCEAN WATERS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. BECAUSE OF THE
FREQUENT GUSTY WIND UP TO 30 KT AN ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED ON ALL
THE FORECAST WATERS THROUGH 2 AM EDT SATURDAY AND ON THE OCEAN
WATERS THROUGH 600 AM SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ON THE OCEAN MAY
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY MORNING AND THE ADVISORY MA NEED TO BE
EXTENDED.

WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS SUN AND MON. WINDS MAY APPROACH SCA LVLS
MON NGT AND TUE AS LOW PRES DEEPENS OVER THE ATLC...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE ERN OCEAN. WINDS AND SEAS THEN PROGGED TO FALL BLW SCA LVLS WED
AND THU.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL FALL BELOW 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON AND
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH ARE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...ALTHOUGH LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH OF
RAINFALL WILL HAVE FALLEN OVER THE PREVIOUS 3 DAYS...SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL MONDAY IS HELPING KEEP FORECAST 1 AND 10 HOUR FUEL
MOISTURE LEVELS HIGH ENOUGH TO HAMPER ELEVATED FIRE GROWTH
POTENTIAL. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS AND FORECAST LOWS FOR SATURDAY APRIL 25

NEWARK NJ...34/1936...36
BRIDGEPORT CT 32/1956...34
CENTRAL PARK NY 29/1919...37
LAGUARDIA NY 36/1971...39
KENNEDY NY *37/1971...37
ISLIP NY 36/2012...31

*AND PREVIOUS YEARS

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     CTZ005>012.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     NYZ067>070-078>081.
NJ...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     NJZ002-004-103>105-107.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/MET
NEAR TERM...JMC/MET/PW
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JMC/MET/PW
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JMC/MET
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KOKX 241723 CCA
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
123 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY TO THE EAST. MEANWHILE...LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PASS BY TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW
WILL DEEPEN OVER THE ATLANTIC DURING THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLE...THE AREA WILL
REMAIN DRY TODAY AS AN UPPER AND SURFACE LOW REMAIN ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY TO THE
WEST WITH RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT. A CYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST TO WEST WIND. TEMPERATURES HAVE STRUGGLED TO RISE
DUE TO COLD AIR IN PLACE AND CLOUD COVER. DID LOWER TEMPS
SLIGHTLY...WITH MID 40S TO AROUND 50 EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS CONTINUE TO MEANDER ACROSS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND SLOWLY FILL AS HIGHER PRESSURE
BUILDS TO THE WEST AND HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE. WITH A
COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE...SLIGHTLY LESS MIXING AND LESS CLOUD
COVER...TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE MORE LIKELY TO FALL TO FREEZING
OR BELOW ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
METROPOLITAN NEW YORK. SO A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION...SOME RECORD
LOWS WILL MAY BE SET...SEE CLIMATE SECTION. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY...AND THE AIRMASS WILL MODIFY
WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND LESS WIND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE LARGE UPR LOW SPINNING OVER
THE MARITIMES AND NERN CONUS. WITHIN THIS FLOW...A STRONG SHRTWV IS
PROGGED TO DROP THRU THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ERN ZONES...ON SUN. THIS
COULD BRING SOME ISOLD SHWRS. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING STRONGER
UPR ENERGY INTO THE REGION MON. THE ECMWF HOWEVER BRINGS THE MAIN
UPR LOW CENTER DOWN THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND AS A RESULT PROVIDES
BETTER DYNAMICS. FOR NOW KEPT POPS CAPPED AT ISOLD. IN
ADDITION...THE DEEPER ECMWF SOLN COULD RESULT IN SOME SNOW MIXING IN
MON NGT DUE TO THE MUCH COOLER COLUMN. RIDGING BUILDS IN TUE AND
WED...PRODUCING A WARMUP PARTICULARLY WRN ZONES. A SLOW MOVING
DEVELOPING LOW WILL BE THE NEXT FOCUS FOR PCPN TOWARDS THE END OF
NEXT WEEK. LEFT THU DRY FOR NOW AS THESE SYS TEND TO BE A BIT SLOWER
THAN PROGGED THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SLOWLY WEAKENS WITH BRIEF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST INTO TONIGHT. THIS HIGH
WILL RETREAT FARTHER NORTH SATURDAY. VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
WITH GUSTY NW FLOW MUCH OF THE TIME.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND GUSTS COULD BECOME OCCASIONAL TONIGHT.
GUSTS COULD OCCASIONALLY PEAK TO 30-35 KT BEFORE 03Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND GUSTS COULD BECOME OCCASIONAL TONIGHT.
GUSTS COULD OCCASIONALLY PEAK TO 30-35 KT BEFORE 03Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND GUSTS COULD BECOME OCCASIONAL TONIGHT.
GUSTS COULD OCCASIONALLY PEAK TO 30-35 KT BEFORE 01Z.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND GUSTS COULD BECOME OCCASIONAL EARLY
THIS EVENING. GUSTS COULD OCCASIONALLY PEAK TO 30-35 KT BEFORE
23Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND GUSTS COULD BECOME OCCASIONAL EARLY
THIS EVENING. GUSTS COULD OCCASIONALLY PEAK TO 30-35 KT BEFORE
01Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND GUSTS COULD BECOME OCCASIONAL THIS
EVENING. GUSTS COULD OCCASIONALLY PEAK TO 30-35 KT BEFORE 00Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SAT THROUGH WED...
.SAT...VFR. NW FLOW BACKING TO W-SW SAT AFTN.
.SAT NIGHT-SUN NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.
.MON-TUE...MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT-WED...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH LOW PRESSURE REMAINING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST
WATERS AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST...A PERSISTENT GUSTY
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES INTO TONIGHT. WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON
AND INTO TONIGHT TO LIKELY REACH 25 TO 30 KT AND THEN SLOWLY
SUBSIDE LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS
TOWARD THE WATERS AND THE LOW TO THE NORTHEAST WEAKENS. SEAS ON
THE OCEAN WATERS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. BECAUSE OF THE
FREQUENT GUSTY WIND UP TO 30 KT AN ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED ON ALL
THE FORECAST WATERS THROUGH 2 AM EDT SATURDAY AND ON THE OCEAN
WATERS THROUGH 600 AM SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ON THE OCEAN MAY
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY MORNING AND THE ADVISORY MA NEED TO BE
EXTENDED.

WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS SUN AND MON. WINDS MAY APPROACH SCA LVLS
MON NGT AND TUE AS LOW PRES DEEPENS OVER THE ATLC...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE ERN OCEAN. WINDS AND SEAS THEN PROGGED TO FALL BLW SCA LVLS WED
AND THU.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL FALL BELOW 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON AND
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH ARE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...ALTHOUGH LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH OF
RAINFALL WILL HAVE FALLEN OVER THE PREVIOUS 3 DAYS...SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL MONDAY IS HELPING KEEP FORECAST 1 AND 10 HOUR FUEL
MOISTURE LEVELS HIGH ENOUGH TO HAMPER ELEVATED FIRE GROWTH
POTENTIAL. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS AND FORECAST LOWS FOR SATURDAY APRIL 25

NEWARK NJ...34/1936...36
BRIDGEPORT CT 32/1956...34
CENTRAL PARK NY 29/1919...37
LAGUARDIA NY 36/1971...39
KENNEDY NY *37/1971...37
ISLIP NY 36/2012...31

*AND PREVIOUS YEARS

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     CTZ005>012.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     NYZ067>070-078>081.
NJ...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     NJZ002-004-103>105-107.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/MET
NEAR TERM...JMC/MET/PW
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JMC/MET/PW
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JMC/MET
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KOKX 241723
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
123 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY TO THE EAST. MEANWHILE...LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PASS BY TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW
WILL DEEPEN OVER THE ATLANTIC DURING THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLE...THE AREA WILL
REMAIN DRY TODAY AS AN UPPER AND SURFACE LOW REMAIN ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY TO THE
WEST WITH RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT. A CYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST TO WEST WIND. TEMPERATURES HAVE STRUGGLED TO RISE
DUE TO COLD AIR IN PLACE AND CLOUD COVER. DID LOWER TEMPS
SLIGHTLY...WITH MID 40S TO AROUND 50 EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS CONTINUE TO MEANDER ACROSS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND SLOWLY FILL AS HIGHER PRESSURE
BUILDS TO THE WEST AND HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE. WITH A
COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE...SLIGHTLY LESS MIXING AND LESS CLOUD
COVER...TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE MORE LIKELY TO FALL TO FREEZING
OR BELOW ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
METROPOLITAN NEW YORK. SO A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION...SOME RECORD
LOWS WILL MAY BE SET...SEE CLIMATE SECTION. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY...AND THE AIRMASS WILL MODIFY
WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND LESS WIND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE LARGE UPR LOW SPINNING OVER
THE MARITIMES AND NERN CONUS. WITHIN THIS FLOW...A STRONG SHRTWV IS
PROGGED TO DROP THRU THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ERN ZONES...ON SUN. THIS
COULD BRING SOME ISOLD SHWRS. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING STRONGER
UPR ENERGY INTO THE REGION MON. THE ECMWF HOWEVER BRINGS THE MAIN
UPR LOW CENTER DOWN THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND AS A RESULT PROVIDES
BETTER DYNAMICS. FOR NOW KEPT POPS CAPPED AT ISOLD. IN
ADDITION...THE DEEPER ECMWF SOLN COULD RESULT IN SOME SNOW MIXING IN
MON NGT DUE TO THE MUCH COOLER COLUMN. RIDGING BUILDS IN TUE AND
WED...PRODUCING A WARMUP PARTICULARLY WRN ZONES. A SLOW MOVING
DEVELOPING LOW WILL BE THE NEXT FOCUS FOR PCPN TOWARDS THE END OF
NEXT WEEK. LEFT THU DRY FOR NOW AS THESE SYS TEND TO BE A BIT SLOWER
THAN PROGGED THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SLOWLY WEAKENS WITH BRIEF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST INTO TONIGHT. THIS HIGH
WILL RETREAT FARTHER NORTH SATURDAY. VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
WITH GUSTY NW FLOW MUCH OF THE TIME.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BACK 20 TO 40 DEGREES COMPARED TO
TAF THIS AFTN WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SFC TROF. GUSTS
COULD OCCASIONALLY PEAK TO 30-35 KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTN.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BACK 20 TO 40 DEGREES COMPARED TO
TAF THIS AFTN WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SFC TROF. GUSTS
COULD OCCASIONALLY PEAK TO 30-35 KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTN.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BACK 20 TO 40 DEGREES COMPARED TO
TAF THIS AFTN WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SFC TROF. GUSTS
COULD OCCASIONALLY PEAK TO 30-35 KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTN.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BACK 20 TO 40 DEGREES THIS AFT
WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SFC TROF. GUSTS COULD OCCASIONALLY
PEAK TO 30-35 KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTN.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS COULD OCCASIONALLY PEAK TO 30-35 KT AT
TIMES THROUGH THE AFTN.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BACK 20 TO 40 DEGREES COMPARED TO
TAF THIS AFTN WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SFC TROF. GUSTS
COULD OCCASIONALLY PEAK TO 30-35 KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTN.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SAT THROUGH WED...
.SAT...VFR. NW FLOW BACKING TO W-SW SAT AFTN.
.SAT NIGHT-SUN NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.
.MON-TUE...MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT-WED...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH LOW PRESSURE REMAINING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST
WATERS AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST...A PERSISTENT GUSTY
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES INTO TONIGHT. WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON
AND INTO TONIGHT TO LIKELY REACH 25 TO 30 KT AND THEN SLOWLY
SUBSIDE LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS
TOWARD THE WATERS AND THE LOW TO THE NORTHEAST WEAKENS. SEAS ON
THE OCEAN WATERS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. BECAUSE OF THE
FREQUENT GUSTY WIND UP TO 30 KT AN ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED ON ALL
THE FORECAST WATERS THROUGH 2 AM EDT SATURDAY AND ON THE OCEAN
WATERS THROUGH 600 AM SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ON THE OCEAN MAY
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY MORNING AND THE ADVISORY MA NEED TO BE
EXTENDED.

WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS SUN AND MON. WINDS MAY APPROACH SCA LVLS
MON NGT AND TUE AS LOW PRES DEEPENS OVER THE ATLC...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE ERN OCEAN. WINDS AND SEAS THEN PROGGED TO FALL BLW SCA LVLS WED
AND THU.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL FALL BELOW 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON AND
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH ARE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...ALTHOUGH LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH OF
RAINFALL WILL HAVE FALLEN OVER THE PREVIOUS 3 DAYS...SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL MONDAY IS HELPING KEEP FORECAST 1 AND 10 HOUR FUEL
MOISTURE LEVELS HIGH ENOUGH TO HAMPER ELEVATED FIRE GROWTH
POTENTIAL. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS AND FORECAST LOWS FOR SATURDAY APRIL 25

NEWARK NJ...34/1936...36
BRIDGEPORT CT 32/1956...34
CENTRAL PARK NY 29/1919...37
LAGUARDIA NY 36/1971...39
KENNEDY NY *37/1971...37
ISLIP NY 36/2012...31

*AND PREVIOUS YEARS

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     CTZ005>012.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     NYZ067>070-078>081.
NJ...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     NJZ002-004-103>105-107.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/MET
NEAR TERM...JMC/MET/PW
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JMC/MET/PW
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JMC/MET
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KOKX 241723
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
123 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY TO THE EAST. MEANWHILE...LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PASS BY TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW
WILL DEEPEN OVER THE ATLANTIC DURING THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLE...THE AREA WILL
REMAIN DRY TODAY AS AN UPPER AND SURFACE LOW REMAIN ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY TO THE
WEST WITH RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT. A CYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST TO WEST WIND. TEMPERATURES HAVE STRUGGLED TO RISE
DUE TO COLD AIR IN PLACE AND CLOUD COVER. DID LOWER TEMPS
SLIGHTLY...WITH MID 40S TO AROUND 50 EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS CONTINUE TO MEANDER ACROSS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND SLOWLY FILL AS HIGHER PRESSURE
BUILDS TO THE WEST AND HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE. WITH A
COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE...SLIGHTLY LESS MIXING AND LESS CLOUD
COVER...TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE MORE LIKELY TO FALL TO FREEZING
OR BELOW ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
METROPOLITAN NEW YORK. SO A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION...SOME RECORD
LOWS WILL MAY BE SET...SEE CLIMATE SECTION. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY...AND THE AIRMASS WILL MODIFY
WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND LESS WIND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE LARGE UPR LOW SPINNING OVER
THE MARITIMES AND NERN CONUS. WITHIN THIS FLOW...A STRONG SHRTWV IS
PROGGED TO DROP THRU THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ERN ZONES...ON SUN. THIS
COULD BRING SOME ISOLD SHWRS. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING STRONGER
UPR ENERGY INTO THE REGION MON. THE ECMWF HOWEVER BRINGS THE MAIN
UPR LOW CENTER DOWN THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND AS A RESULT PROVIDES
BETTER DYNAMICS. FOR NOW KEPT POPS CAPPED AT ISOLD. IN
ADDITION...THE DEEPER ECMWF SOLN COULD RESULT IN SOME SNOW MIXING IN
MON NGT DUE TO THE MUCH COOLER COLUMN. RIDGING BUILDS IN TUE AND
WED...PRODUCING A WARMUP PARTICULARLY WRN ZONES. A SLOW MOVING
DEVELOPING LOW WILL BE THE NEXT FOCUS FOR PCPN TOWARDS THE END OF
NEXT WEEK. LEFT THU DRY FOR NOW AS THESE SYS TEND TO BE A BIT SLOWER
THAN PROGGED THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SLOWLY WEAKENS WITH BRIEF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST INTO TONIGHT. THIS HIGH
WILL RETREAT FARTHER NORTH SATURDAY. VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
WITH GUSTY NW FLOW MUCH OF THE TIME.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BACK 20 TO 40 DEGREES COMPARED TO
TAF THIS AFTN WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SFC TROF. GUSTS
COULD OCCASIONALLY PEAK TO 30-35 KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTN.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BACK 20 TO 40 DEGREES COMPARED TO
TAF THIS AFTN WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SFC TROF. GUSTS
COULD OCCASIONALLY PEAK TO 30-35 KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTN.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BACK 20 TO 40 DEGREES COMPARED TO
TAF THIS AFTN WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SFC TROF. GUSTS
COULD OCCASIONALLY PEAK TO 30-35 KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTN.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BACK 20 TO 40 DEGREES THIS AFT
WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SFC TROF. GUSTS COULD OCCASIONALLY
PEAK TO 30-35 KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTN.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS COULD OCCASIONALLY PEAK TO 30-35 KT AT
TIMES THROUGH THE AFTN.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BACK 20 TO 40 DEGREES COMPARED TO
TAF THIS AFTN WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SFC TROF. GUSTS
COULD OCCASIONALLY PEAK TO 30-35 KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTN.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SAT THROUGH WED...
.SAT...VFR. NW FLOW BACKING TO W-SW SAT AFTN.
.SAT NIGHT-SUN NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.
.MON-TUE...MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT-WED...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH LOW PRESSURE REMAINING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST
WATERS AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST...A PERSISTENT GUSTY
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES INTO TONIGHT. WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON
AND INTO TONIGHT TO LIKELY REACH 25 TO 30 KT AND THEN SLOWLY
SUBSIDE LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS
TOWARD THE WATERS AND THE LOW TO THE NORTHEAST WEAKENS. SEAS ON
THE OCEAN WATERS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. BECAUSE OF THE
FREQUENT GUSTY WIND UP TO 30 KT AN ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED ON ALL
THE FORECAST WATERS THROUGH 2 AM EDT SATURDAY AND ON THE OCEAN
WATERS THROUGH 600 AM SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ON THE OCEAN MAY
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY MORNING AND THE ADVISORY MA NEED TO BE
EXTENDED.

WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS SUN AND MON. WINDS MAY APPROACH SCA LVLS
MON NGT AND TUE AS LOW PRES DEEPENS OVER THE ATLC...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE ERN OCEAN. WINDS AND SEAS THEN PROGGED TO FALL BLW SCA LVLS WED
AND THU.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL FALL BELOW 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON AND
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH ARE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...ALTHOUGH LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH OF
RAINFALL WILL HAVE FALLEN OVER THE PREVIOUS 3 DAYS...SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL MONDAY IS HELPING KEEP FORECAST 1 AND 10 HOUR FUEL
MOISTURE LEVELS HIGH ENOUGH TO HAMPER ELEVATED FIRE GROWTH
POTENTIAL. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS AND FORECAST LOWS FOR SATURDAY APRIL 25

NEWARK NJ...34/1936...36
BRIDGEPORT CT 32/1956...34
CENTRAL PARK NY 29/1919...37
LAGUARDIA NY 36/1971...39
KENNEDY NY *37/1971...37
ISLIP NY 36/2012...31

*AND PREVIOUS YEARS

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     CTZ005>012.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     NYZ067>070-078>081.
NJ...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     NJZ002-004-103>105-107.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/MET
NEAR TERM...JMC/MET/PW
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JMC/MET/PW
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JMC/MET
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KOKX 241723
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
123 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY TO THE EAST. MEANWHILE...LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PASS BY TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW
WILL DEEPEN OVER THE ATLANTIC DURING THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLE...THE AREA WILL
REMAIN DRY TODAY AS AN UPPER AND SURFACE LOW REMAIN ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY TO THE
WEST WITH RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT. A CYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST TO WEST WIND. TEMPERATURES HAVE STRUGGLED TO RISE
DUE TO COLD AIR IN PLACE AND CLOUD COVER. DID LOWER TEMPS
SLIGHTLY...WITH MID 40S TO AROUND 50 EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS CONTINUE TO MEANDER ACROSS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND SLOWLY FILL AS HIGHER PRESSURE
BUILDS TO THE WEST AND HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE. WITH A
COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE...SLIGHTLY LESS MIXING AND LESS CLOUD
COVER...TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE MORE LIKELY TO FALL TO FREEZING
OR BELOW ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
METROPOLITAN NEW YORK. SO A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION...SOME RECORD
LOWS WILL MAY BE SET...SEE CLIMATE SECTION. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY...AND THE AIRMASS WILL MODIFY
WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND LESS WIND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE LARGE UPR LOW SPINNING OVER
THE MARITIMES AND NERN CONUS. WITHIN THIS FLOW...A STRONG SHRTWV IS
PROGGED TO DROP THRU THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ERN ZONES...ON SUN. THIS
COULD BRING SOME ISOLD SHWRS. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING STRONGER
UPR ENERGY INTO THE REGION MON. THE ECMWF HOWEVER BRINGS THE MAIN
UPR LOW CENTER DOWN THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND AS A RESULT PROVIDES
BETTER DYNAMICS. FOR NOW KEPT POPS CAPPED AT ISOLD. IN
ADDITION...THE DEEPER ECMWF SOLN COULD RESULT IN SOME SNOW MIXING IN
MON NGT DUE TO THE MUCH COOLER COLUMN. RIDGING BUILDS IN TUE AND
WED...PRODUCING A WARMUP PARTICULARLY WRN ZONES. A SLOW MOVING
DEVELOPING LOW WILL BE THE NEXT FOCUS FOR PCPN TOWARDS THE END OF
NEXT WEEK. LEFT THU DRY FOR NOW AS THESE SYS TEND TO BE A BIT SLOWER
THAN PROGGED THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SLOWLY WEAKENS WITH BRIEF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST INTO TONIGHT. THIS HIGH
WILL RETREAT FARTHER NORTH SATURDAY. VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
WITH GUSTY NW FLOW MUCH OF THE TIME.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BACK 20 TO 40 DEGREES COMPARED TO
TAF THIS AFTN WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SFC TROF. GUSTS
COULD OCCASIONALLY PEAK TO 30-35 KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTN.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BACK 20 TO 40 DEGREES COMPARED TO
TAF THIS AFTN WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SFC TROF. GUSTS
COULD OCCASIONALLY PEAK TO 30-35 KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTN.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BACK 20 TO 40 DEGREES COMPARED TO
TAF THIS AFTN WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SFC TROF. GUSTS
COULD OCCASIONALLY PEAK TO 30-35 KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTN.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BACK 20 TO 40 DEGREES THIS AFT
WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SFC TROF. GUSTS COULD OCCASIONALLY
PEAK TO 30-35 KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTN.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS COULD OCCASIONALLY PEAK TO 30-35 KT AT
TIMES THROUGH THE AFTN.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BACK 20 TO 40 DEGREES COMPARED TO
TAF THIS AFTN WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SFC TROF. GUSTS
COULD OCCASIONALLY PEAK TO 30-35 KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTN.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SAT THROUGH WED...
.SAT...VFR. NW FLOW BACKING TO W-SW SAT AFTN.
.SAT NIGHT-SUN NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.
.MON-TUE...MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT-WED...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH LOW PRESSURE REMAINING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST
WATERS AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST...A PERSISTENT GUSTY
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES INTO TONIGHT. WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON
AND INTO TONIGHT TO LIKELY REACH 25 TO 30 KT AND THEN SLOWLY
SUBSIDE LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS
TOWARD THE WATERS AND THE LOW TO THE NORTHEAST WEAKENS. SEAS ON
THE OCEAN WATERS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. BECAUSE OF THE
FREQUENT GUSTY WIND UP TO 30 KT AN ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED ON ALL
THE FORECAST WATERS THROUGH 2 AM EDT SATURDAY AND ON THE OCEAN
WATERS THROUGH 600 AM SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ON THE OCEAN MAY
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY MORNING AND THE ADVISORY MA NEED TO BE
EXTENDED.

WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS SUN AND MON. WINDS MAY APPROACH SCA LVLS
MON NGT AND TUE AS LOW PRES DEEPENS OVER THE ATLC...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE ERN OCEAN. WINDS AND SEAS THEN PROGGED TO FALL BLW SCA LVLS WED
AND THU.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL FALL BELOW 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON AND
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH ARE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...ALTHOUGH LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH OF
RAINFALL WILL HAVE FALLEN OVER THE PREVIOUS 3 DAYS...SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL MONDAY IS HELPING KEEP FORECAST 1 AND 10 HOUR FUEL
MOISTURE LEVELS HIGH ENOUGH TO HAMPER ELEVATED FIRE GROWTH
POTENTIAL. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS AND FORECAST LOWS FOR SATURDAY APRIL 25

NEWARK NJ...34/1936...36
BRIDGEPORT CT 32/1956...34
CENTRAL PARK NY 29/1919...37
LAGUARDIA NY 36/1971...39
KENNEDY NY *37/1971...37
ISLIP NY 36/2012...31

*AND PREVIOUS YEARS

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     CTZ005>012.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     NYZ067>070-078>081.
NJ...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     NJZ002-004-103>105-107.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/MET
NEAR TERM...JMC/MET/PW
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JMC/MET/PW
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JMC/MET
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KOKX 241723
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
123 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY TO THE EAST. MEANWHILE...LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PASS BY TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW
WILL DEEPEN OVER THE ATLANTIC DURING THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLE...THE AREA WILL
REMAIN DRY TODAY AS AN UPPER AND SURFACE LOW REMAIN ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY TO THE
WEST WITH RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT. A CYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST TO WEST WIND. TEMPERATURES HAVE STRUGGLED TO RISE
DUE TO COLD AIR IN PLACE AND CLOUD COVER. DID LOWER TEMPS
SLIGHTLY...WITH MID 40S TO AROUND 50 EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS CONTINUE TO MEANDER ACROSS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND SLOWLY FILL AS HIGHER PRESSURE
BUILDS TO THE WEST AND HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE. WITH A
COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE...SLIGHTLY LESS MIXING AND LESS CLOUD
COVER...TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE MORE LIKELY TO FALL TO FREEZING
OR BELOW ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
METROPOLITAN NEW YORK. SO A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION...SOME RECORD
LOWS WILL MAY BE SET...SEE CLIMATE SECTION. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY...AND THE AIRMASS WILL MODIFY
WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND LESS WIND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE LARGE UPR LOW SPINNING OVER
THE MARITIMES AND NERN CONUS. WITHIN THIS FLOW...A STRONG SHRTWV IS
PROGGED TO DROP THRU THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ERN ZONES...ON SUN. THIS
COULD BRING SOME ISOLD SHWRS. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING STRONGER
UPR ENERGY INTO THE REGION MON. THE ECMWF HOWEVER BRINGS THE MAIN
UPR LOW CENTER DOWN THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND AS A RESULT PROVIDES
BETTER DYNAMICS. FOR NOW KEPT POPS CAPPED AT ISOLD. IN
ADDITION...THE DEEPER ECMWF SOLN COULD RESULT IN SOME SNOW MIXING IN
MON NGT DUE TO THE MUCH COOLER COLUMN. RIDGING BUILDS IN TUE AND
WED...PRODUCING A WARMUP PARTICULARLY WRN ZONES. A SLOW MOVING
DEVELOPING LOW WILL BE THE NEXT FOCUS FOR PCPN TOWARDS THE END OF
NEXT WEEK. LEFT THU DRY FOR NOW AS THESE SYS TEND TO BE A BIT SLOWER
THAN PROGGED THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SLOWLY WEAKENS WITH BRIEF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST INTO TONIGHT. THIS HIGH
WILL RETREAT FARTHER NORTH SATURDAY. VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
WITH GUSTY NW FLOW MUCH OF THE TIME.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BACK 20 TO 40 DEGREES COMPARED TO
TAF THIS AFTN WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SFC TROF. GUSTS
COULD OCCASIONALLY PEAK TO 30-35 KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTN.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BACK 20 TO 40 DEGREES COMPARED TO
TAF THIS AFTN WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SFC TROF. GUSTS
COULD OCCASIONALLY PEAK TO 30-35 KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTN.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BACK 20 TO 40 DEGREES COMPARED TO
TAF THIS AFTN WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SFC TROF. GUSTS
COULD OCCASIONALLY PEAK TO 30-35 KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTN.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BACK 20 TO 40 DEGREES THIS AFT
WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SFC TROF. GUSTS COULD OCCASIONALLY
PEAK TO 30-35 KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTN.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS COULD OCCASIONALLY PEAK TO 30-35 KT AT
TIMES THROUGH THE AFTN.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BACK 20 TO 40 DEGREES COMPARED TO
TAF THIS AFTN WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SFC TROF. GUSTS
COULD OCCASIONALLY PEAK TO 30-35 KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTN.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SAT THROUGH WED...
.SAT...VFR. NW FLOW BACKING TO W-SW SAT AFTN.
.SAT NIGHT-SUN NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.
.MON-TUE...MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT-WED...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH LOW PRESSURE REMAINING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST
WATERS AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST...A PERSISTENT GUSTY
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES INTO TONIGHT. WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON
AND INTO TONIGHT TO LIKELY REACH 25 TO 30 KT AND THEN SLOWLY
SUBSIDE LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS
TOWARD THE WATERS AND THE LOW TO THE NORTHEAST WEAKENS. SEAS ON
THE OCEAN WATERS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. BECAUSE OF THE
FREQUENT GUSTY WIND UP TO 30 KT AN ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED ON ALL
THE FORECAST WATERS THROUGH 2 AM EDT SATURDAY AND ON THE OCEAN
WATERS THROUGH 600 AM SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ON THE OCEAN MAY
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY MORNING AND THE ADVISORY MA NEED TO BE
EXTENDED.

WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS SUN AND MON. WINDS MAY APPROACH SCA LVLS
MON NGT AND TUE AS LOW PRES DEEPENS OVER THE ATLC...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE ERN OCEAN. WINDS AND SEAS THEN PROGGED TO FALL BLW SCA LVLS WED
AND THU.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL FALL BELOW 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON AND
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH ARE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...ALTHOUGH LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH OF
RAINFALL WILL HAVE FALLEN OVER THE PREVIOUS 3 DAYS...SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL MONDAY IS HELPING KEEP FORECAST 1 AND 10 HOUR FUEL
MOISTURE LEVELS HIGH ENOUGH TO HAMPER ELEVATED FIRE GROWTH
POTENTIAL. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS AND FORECAST LOWS FOR SATURDAY APRIL 25

NEWARK NJ...34/1936...36
BRIDGEPORT CT 32/1956...34
CENTRAL PARK NY 29/1919...37
LAGUARDIA NY 36/1971...39
KENNEDY NY *37/1971...37
ISLIP NY 36/2012...31

*AND PREVIOUS YEARS

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     CTZ005>012.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     NYZ067>070-078>081.
NJ...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     NJZ002-004-103>105-107.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/MET
NEAR TERM...JMC/MET/PW
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JMC/MET/PW
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JMC/MET
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KALY 241656
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1256 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE STORM IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST...AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
CIRCULATE AROUND IT ACROSS THE REGION. EACH DISTURBANCE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASED CLOUDS...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...
ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WINDS WILL BE BRISK TO END THE
WEEK...AND START THE NEW WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMALS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1015 AM EDT...NOTHING MUCH HAS CHANGED FROM BEFORE...LOTS OF
CLOUDS...SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS AND CHILLY TEMPERATURES.
IN FACT AT ALBANY...TEMPERATURES THIS HOUR ACTUALLY FELL A DEGREE.

ONCE AGAIN DEALING WITH A COLD ATMOSPHERE WITH THE FREEZING
TEMPERATURE JUST OFF THE DECK. THE FLOW REMAINS CYCLONIC SO IT LOOKS
AS IF THE CLOUDS ARE HERE TO STAY ONCE MORE.

FOR THIS UPDATED...DECIDED TO LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES A CATEGORY DUE
TO THE CLOUDS AND COLD CORE ALOFT. LOOK FOR HIGHS ONLY 45-50 IN THE
VALLEYS...MID 30S TO LOWER 40S HIGHER TERRAIN.

A BRISK WIND 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH WILL MAKE THESE
VALUES FEEL ABOUT 10 DEGREES COLDER.

ALSO BELIEVE MOSTLY SNOW (OR GRAUPEL) WILL FALL ONCE MORE SO HAVE
SNOW SHOWERS WITH TEMPERATURES AS HIGH AS 43 DEGREES (DUE TO THE
EXCEPTIONALLY COLD AIR ALOFT). ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
CONFINED TO GRASSY AREAS OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.


TONIGHT...A COMPACT SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER WESTERN
QUEBEC...IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE SOUTHEASTWARD BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
SOME WEAK SYNOPTIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY ALLOW FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO LINGER INTO THIS
EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THEN...INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE AND RISING HEIGHTS SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE AREAL COVERAGE
OF ANY SNOW SHOWERS TO DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT...ALONG WITH
CLEARING SKIES. WINDS SHOULD PERSIST MUCH OF THE NIGHT...BUT COULD
TREND DOWNWARD TOWARD DAYBREAK...ALLOWING TEMPS TO FALL TO OR
BELOW FREEZING ACROSS A LARGER PORTION OF THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT...INCLUDING MANY VALLEY AREAS. HAVE SIDED WITH THE COOLER
GUIDANCE IN MOST AREAS...WITH WIDESPREAD 20S EXPECTED...EXCEPT
CLOSER TO 30 IN VALLEY AREAS. SHOULD WINDS DECREASE EVEN
QUICKER THAN EXPECTED...MIN TEMPS COULD BE COLDER.

SATURDAY...IT APPEARS THAT OUR REGION WILL LIE BETWEEN THE
SPRAWLING UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS EASTERN CANADA/CANADIAN
MARITIMES...AND A POTENT SHORTWAVE TRACKING WELL SOUTH OF THE
REGION INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. ENHANCED UPPER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS SHOULD PROMOTE SUBSIDENCE...AND
MUCH LESS IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. TEMPS
SHOULD RESPOND...CLIMBING INTO THE 55-60 RANGE FOR VALLEYS...AND
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS. EVEN WARMER MAX
TEMPS COULD OCCUR...AS MIXING DEPTHS COULD BECOME QUITE DEEP BY
LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY AT TIMES THROUGH THE
DAY...PERHAPS REACHING AROUND 30 MPH AT TIMES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
LARGE 500HPA CUTOFF LOW ROTATES ABOUT BUT REMAINS IN THE
MARITIMES...GULF OF MAINE AND OVER THE NORTHEAST USA THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...BEFORE FINALLY LIFTING SLOWLY OUT TO SEA TUESDAY.
THE ECMWF AND GFS FEATURE THIS LIFTING OUT...WHILE THE GEM KEEPS
THE CUT OFF CENTER AND SFC LOW WELL WEST OVER NEW ENGLAND. WILL
CONSIDER THE GEM THE OUTLIER AT THIS TIME GIVEN PREVIOUS RUNS AND
ENSEMBLES.

THE 5000HPA SHORT WV PARADE AROUND 500HPA CUTOFF WILL
PERSIST...BOTH THOSE ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN SYSTEM AND OTHERS
DROPPING INTO THE SYSTEM. AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO
THE REGION FM THE NW...INTO SUNDAY. AFTERWARD SFC LOW MOVING E TO OUR
SOUTH WILL DEEPEN INTO AN INTENSE OCEANIC STORM WELL OFFSHORE...BUT
CLOSE ENOUGH THAT COMBINED W/LARGE SFC HIGH OVER GREAT LAKES
REESTABLISHES A BRISK WIND GRADIENT OVER FORECAST AREA.

INCRG CLOUDS AND -SHRA/SN WILL BE TIED TO PASSING SHORT WAVES WITH
GREATEST THREAT LATE SUN INTO MON. THE BEGINNING AND END OF THE
PERIOD OFFER THE BEST CHC FOR PS SKIES...AND SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPS. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S WITH LOW 60S SOUTH. LOWS
IN THE 30S AND LOW 40S, TUES TEMPS WILL KICK UP A NOTCH...WITH
MOST AREAS REACHING THE 60S EXCEPT THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

WILL LARGELY POPULATE WITH GFSMOS...AND BLEND INTO CURRENT
FORECAST...UNLESS ECMWF SIGNIFICANTLY DEPARTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WPC SEEMS HAVE LARGELY GONE WITH AN ECMWF (LIGHT) SOLUTION THIS
AM. IN THIS SCENARIO RIDGING AT 500HPA BUILDS EAST...WITH BULK OF
SHORT WV ENERGY PASSING TO OUR SOUTH IN A SE STATES CUT OFF...AND
ANOTHER 500HPA CUTOFF ARRIVING TOWARD END OF PERIOD FM OTTAWA VALLEY.
THE GFS IS ONLY SIMILAR WITH THIS TIL THU...THEN MUCH MORE GREATLY
INTENSIFIES THE N BRANCH CUTOFF OVER NE USA...WITH JANUARY LIKE
BOMB ON THE SEABOARD...AS 520 DEKA METER METER CUT OFF PROPAGATES ACROSS THE
REGION. TO PUT IT MILDLY THIS LOOKS A BIT EXTREME AND OVERDONE.

IN THE WPC/ECMWF SOLUTION LARGE SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO NE
WED...COASTAL STORM PASSES JUST S OF REGION GLANCING SE AREAS WITH
CLOUDS AND CHC POPS THU AND SFC HIGH REASSERTS ITSELF FRI. THE
ECMWF HAS A DEEPER COASTAL STORM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH TOWARD THE END
OF THE PERIOD...BUT STRONGER COLD AIR ADVECTION IN ITS WAKE.

FOR NOW WILL POPULATE WITH WPC AND RETAIN CONTINUITY WITH CURRENT
FORECAST. TEMPS WILL RETURN TO NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.

THERE COULD SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON THAT COULD
BRIEFLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO MVFR OR EVEN IFR BUT ONLY A FEW
MINUTES AT MOST...AND NOT WORTH EVEN PLACING AS A TEMPO IN THE TAFS.

OTHERWISE VFR CIGS AROUND 5000 FEET AGL WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
EVENING PEAK. THE WIND WILL AVERAGE 10-15 KTS FROM A WEST OR
NORTHWEST DIRECTION WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO PERHAPS 30KTS...ESPECIALLY
AT KPSF AND KALB.

THE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING...AND THE CIGS WILL BECOME
SCATTERED LATER THIS EVENING AS WELL...FIRST AT KPOU THEN THE OTHER
TAF SITES AS WELL.

SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY DAY WITH EXCELLENT
VISIBILITIES. THE WIND WILL BECOME A LITTLE GUSTY AGAIN...WNW AROUND
10KTS...GUSTING TO 20KTS AFTER 12Z-14Z.

A CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT
BUT THE FLOW WILL BECOME LESS CYCLONIC ON SATURDAY.


OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WIND GUSTS UP OF 25-35 MPH LIKELY TODAY...

RH VALUES FALL TO 25-30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON IN VALLEY AREAS...

WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF GREATER THAN ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH
OCCURRED BETWEEN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF THIS WEEK.

OUR REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
LOW ANCHORED ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL PERSIST TODAY...AND RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 25-35
PERCENT RANGE IN VALLEYS...AND 35-50 PERCENT ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON.

THE RH SHOULD RECOVER TO 75-90 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN DROP INTO
THE 25-35 PERCENT RANGE ONCE AGAIN SAT AFTERNOON. WINDS SAT MAY
STILL OCCASIONALLY GUST UP TO 25-30 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF
MOSTLY SNOW IN THE MOUNTAIN. ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE
LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR HYDROLOGICAL
SERVICE AREA (HSA).

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/KL
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...HWJIV
JPV FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER



000
FXUS61 KALY 241656
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1256 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE STORM IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST...AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
CIRCULATE AROUND IT ACROSS THE REGION. EACH DISTURBANCE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASED CLOUDS...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...
ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WINDS WILL BE BRISK TO END THE
WEEK...AND START THE NEW WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMALS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1015 AM EDT...NOTHING MUCH HAS CHANGED FROM BEFORE...LOTS OF
CLOUDS...SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS AND CHILLY TEMPERATURES.
IN FACT AT ALBANY...TEMPERATURES THIS HOUR ACTUALLY FELL A DEGREE.

ONCE AGAIN DEALING WITH A COLD ATMOSPHERE WITH THE FREEZING
TEMPERATURE JUST OFF THE DECK. THE FLOW REMAINS CYCLONIC SO IT LOOKS
AS IF THE CLOUDS ARE HERE TO STAY ONCE MORE.

FOR THIS UPDATED...DECIDED TO LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES A CATEGORY DUE
TO THE CLOUDS AND COLD CORE ALOFT. LOOK FOR HIGHS ONLY 45-50 IN THE
VALLEYS...MID 30S TO LOWER 40S HIGHER TERRAIN.

A BRISK WIND 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH WILL MAKE THESE
VALUES FEEL ABOUT 10 DEGREES COLDER.

ALSO BELIEVE MOSTLY SNOW (OR GRAUPEL) WILL FALL ONCE MORE SO HAVE
SNOW SHOWERS WITH TEMPERATURES AS HIGH AS 43 DEGREES (DUE TO THE
EXCEPTIONALLY COLD AIR ALOFT). ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
CONFINED TO GRASSY AREAS OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.


TONIGHT...A COMPACT SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER WESTERN
QUEBEC...IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE SOUTHEASTWARD BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
SOME WEAK SYNOPTIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY ALLOW FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO LINGER INTO THIS
EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THEN...INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE AND RISING HEIGHTS SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE AREAL COVERAGE
OF ANY SNOW SHOWERS TO DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT...ALONG WITH
CLEARING SKIES. WINDS SHOULD PERSIST MUCH OF THE NIGHT...BUT COULD
TREND DOWNWARD TOWARD DAYBREAK...ALLOWING TEMPS TO FALL TO OR
BELOW FREEZING ACROSS A LARGER PORTION OF THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT...INCLUDING MANY VALLEY AREAS. HAVE SIDED WITH THE COOLER
GUIDANCE IN MOST AREAS...WITH WIDESPREAD 20S EXPECTED...EXCEPT
CLOSER TO 30 IN VALLEY AREAS. SHOULD WINDS DECREASE EVEN
QUICKER THAN EXPECTED...MIN TEMPS COULD BE COLDER.

SATURDAY...IT APPEARS THAT OUR REGION WILL LIE BETWEEN THE
SPRAWLING UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS EASTERN CANADA/CANADIAN
MARITIMES...AND A POTENT SHORTWAVE TRACKING WELL SOUTH OF THE
REGION INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. ENHANCED UPPER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS SHOULD PROMOTE SUBSIDENCE...AND
MUCH LESS IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. TEMPS
SHOULD RESPOND...CLIMBING INTO THE 55-60 RANGE FOR VALLEYS...AND
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS. EVEN WARMER MAX
TEMPS COULD OCCUR...AS MIXING DEPTHS COULD BECOME QUITE DEEP BY
LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY AT TIMES THROUGH THE
DAY...PERHAPS REACHING AROUND 30 MPH AT TIMES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
LARGE 500HPA CUTOFF LOW ROTATES ABOUT BUT REMAINS IN THE
MARITIMES...GULF OF MAINE AND OVER THE NORTHEAST USA THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...BEFORE FINALLY LIFTING SLOWLY OUT TO SEA TUESDAY.
THE ECMWF AND GFS FEATURE THIS LIFTING OUT...WHILE THE GEM KEEPS
THE CUT OFF CENTER AND SFC LOW WELL WEST OVER NEW ENGLAND. WILL
CONSIDER THE GEM THE OUTLIER AT THIS TIME GIVEN PREVIOUS RUNS AND
ENSEMBLES.

THE 5000HPA SHORT WV PARADE AROUND 500HPA CUTOFF WILL
PERSIST...BOTH THOSE ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN SYSTEM AND OTHERS
DROPPING INTO THE SYSTEM. AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO
THE REGION FM THE NW...INTO SUNDAY. AFTERWARD SFC LOW MOVING E TO OUR
SOUTH WILL DEEPEN INTO AN INTENSE OCEANIC STORM WELL OFFSHORE...BUT
CLOSE ENOUGH THAT COMBINED W/LARGE SFC HIGH OVER GREAT LAKES
REESTABLISHES A BRISK WIND GRADIENT OVER FORECAST AREA.

INCRG CLOUDS AND -SHRA/SN WILL BE TIED TO PASSING SHORT WAVES WITH
GREATEST THREAT LATE SUN INTO MON. THE BEGINNING AND END OF THE
PERIOD OFFER THE BEST CHC FOR PS SKIES...AND SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPS. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S WITH LOW 60S SOUTH. LOWS
IN THE 30S AND LOW 40S, TUES TEMPS WILL KICK UP A NOTCH...WITH
MOST AREAS REACHING THE 60S EXCEPT THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

WILL LARGELY POPULATE WITH GFSMOS...AND BLEND INTO CURRENT
FORECAST...UNLESS ECMWF SIGNIFICANTLY DEPARTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WPC SEEMS HAVE LARGELY GONE WITH AN ECMWF (LIGHT) SOLUTION THIS
AM. IN THIS SCENARIO RIDGING AT 500HPA BUILDS EAST...WITH BULK OF
SHORT WV ENERGY PASSING TO OUR SOUTH IN A SE STATES CUT OFF...AND
ANOTHER 500HPA CUTOFF ARRIVING TOWARD END OF PERIOD FM OTTAWA VALLEY.
THE GFS IS ONLY SIMILAR WITH THIS TIL THU...THEN MUCH MORE GREATLY
INTENSIFIES THE N BRANCH CUTOFF OVER NE USA...WITH JANUARY LIKE
BOMB ON THE SEABOARD...AS 520 DEKA METER METER CUT OFF PROPAGATES ACROSS THE
REGION. TO PUT IT MILDLY THIS LOOKS A BIT EXTREME AND OVERDONE.

IN THE WPC/ECMWF SOLUTION LARGE SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO NE
WED...COASTAL STORM PASSES JUST S OF REGION GLANCING SE AREAS WITH
CLOUDS AND CHC POPS THU AND SFC HIGH REASSERTS ITSELF FRI. THE
ECMWF HAS A DEEPER COASTAL STORM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH TOWARD THE END
OF THE PERIOD...BUT STRONGER COLD AIR ADVECTION IN ITS WAKE.

FOR NOW WILL POPULATE WITH WPC AND RETAIN CONTINUITY WITH CURRENT
FORECAST. TEMPS WILL RETURN TO NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.

THERE COULD SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON THAT COULD
BRIEFLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO MVFR OR EVEN IFR BUT ONLY A FEW
MINUTES AT MOST...AND NOT WORTH EVEN PLACING AS A TEMPO IN THE TAFS.

OTHERWISE VFR CIGS AROUND 5000 FEET AGL WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
EVENING PEAK. THE WIND WILL AVERAGE 10-15 KTS FROM A WEST OR
NORTHWEST DIRECTION WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO PERHAPS 30KTS...ESPECIALLY
AT KPSF AND KALB.

THE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING...AND THE CIGS WILL BECOME
SCATTERED LATER THIS EVENING AS WELL...FIRST AT KPOU THEN THE OTHER
TAF SITES AS WELL.

SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY DAY WITH EXCELLENT
VISIBILITIES. THE WIND WILL BECOME A LITTLE GUSTY AGAIN...WNW AROUND
10KTS...GUSTING TO 20KTS AFTER 12Z-14Z.

A CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT
BUT THE FLOW WILL BECOME LESS CYCLONIC ON SATURDAY.


OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WIND GUSTS UP OF 25-35 MPH LIKELY TODAY...

RH VALUES FALL TO 25-30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON IN VALLEY AREAS...

WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF GREATER THAN ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH
OCCURRED BETWEEN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF THIS WEEK.

OUR REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
LOW ANCHORED ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL PERSIST TODAY...AND RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 25-35
PERCENT RANGE IN VALLEYS...AND 35-50 PERCENT ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON.

THE RH SHOULD RECOVER TO 75-90 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN DROP INTO
THE 25-35 PERCENT RANGE ONCE AGAIN SAT AFTERNOON. WINDS SAT MAY
STILL OCCASIONALLY GUST UP TO 25-30 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF
MOSTLY SNOW IN THE MOUNTAIN. ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE
LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR HYDROLOGICAL
SERVICE AREA (HSA).

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/KL
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...HWJIV
JPV FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER




000
FXUS61 KALY 241656
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1256 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE STORM IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST...AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
CIRCULATE AROUND IT ACROSS THE REGION. EACH DISTURBANCE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASED CLOUDS...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...
ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WINDS WILL BE BRISK TO END THE
WEEK...AND START THE NEW WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMALS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1015 AM EDT...NOTHING MUCH HAS CHANGED FROM BEFORE...LOTS OF
CLOUDS...SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS AND CHILLY TEMPERATURES.
IN FACT AT ALBANY...TEMPERATURES THIS HOUR ACTUALLY FELL A DEGREE.

ONCE AGAIN DEALING WITH A COLD ATMOSPHERE WITH THE FREEZING
TEMPERATURE JUST OFF THE DECK. THE FLOW REMAINS CYCLONIC SO IT LOOKS
AS IF THE CLOUDS ARE HERE TO STAY ONCE MORE.

FOR THIS UPDATED...DECIDED TO LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES A CATEGORY DUE
TO THE CLOUDS AND COLD CORE ALOFT. LOOK FOR HIGHS ONLY 45-50 IN THE
VALLEYS...MID 30S TO LOWER 40S HIGHER TERRAIN.

A BRISK WIND 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH WILL MAKE THESE
VALUES FEEL ABOUT 10 DEGREES COLDER.

ALSO BELIEVE MOSTLY SNOW (OR GRAUPEL) WILL FALL ONCE MORE SO HAVE
SNOW SHOWERS WITH TEMPERATURES AS HIGH AS 43 DEGREES (DUE TO THE
EXCEPTIONALLY COLD AIR ALOFT). ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
CONFINED TO GRASSY AREAS OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.


TONIGHT...A COMPACT SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER WESTERN
QUEBEC...IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE SOUTHEASTWARD BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
SOME WEAK SYNOPTIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY ALLOW FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO LINGER INTO THIS
EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THEN...INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE AND RISING HEIGHTS SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE AREAL COVERAGE
OF ANY SNOW SHOWERS TO DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT...ALONG WITH
CLEARING SKIES. WINDS SHOULD PERSIST MUCH OF THE NIGHT...BUT COULD
TREND DOWNWARD TOWARD DAYBREAK...ALLOWING TEMPS TO FALL TO OR
BELOW FREEZING ACROSS A LARGER PORTION OF THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT...INCLUDING MANY VALLEY AREAS. HAVE SIDED WITH THE COOLER
GUIDANCE IN MOST AREAS...WITH WIDESPREAD 20S EXPECTED...EXCEPT
CLOSER TO 30 IN VALLEY AREAS. SHOULD WINDS DECREASE EVEN
QUICKER THAN EXPECTED...MIN TEMPS COULD BE COLDER.

SATURDAY...IT APPEARS THAT OUR REGION WILL LIE BETWEEN THE
SPRAWLING UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS EASTERN CANADA/CANADIAN
MARITIMES...AND A POTENT SHORTWAVE TRACKING WELL SOUTH OF THE
REGION INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. ENHANCED UPPER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS SHOULD PROMOTE SUBSIDENCE...AND
MUCH LESS IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. TEMPS
SHOULD RESPOND...CLIMBING INTO THE 55-60 RANGE FOR VALLEYS...AND
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS. EVEN WARMER MAX
TEMPS COULD OCCUR...AS MIXING DEPTHS COULD BECOME QUITE DEEP BY
LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY AT TIMES THROUGH THE
DAY...PERHAPS REACHING AROUND 30 MPH AT TIMES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
LARGE 500HPA CUTOFF LOW ROTATES ABOUT BUT REMAINS IN THE
MARITIMES...GULF OF MAINE AND OVER THE NORTHEAST USA THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...BEFORE FINALLY LIFTING SLOWLY OUT TO SEA TUESDAY.
THE ECMWF AND GFS FEATURE THIS LIFTING OUT...WHILE THE GEM KEEPS
THE CUT OFF CENTER AND SFC LOW WELL WEST OVER NEW ENGLAND. WILL
CONSIDER THE GEM THE OUTLIER AT THIS TIME GIVEN PREVIOUS RUNS AND
ENSEMBLES.

THE 5000HPA SHORT WV PARADE AROUND 500HPA CUTOFF WILL
PERSIST...BOTH THOSE ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN SYSTEM AND OTHERS
DROPPING INTO THE SYSTEM. AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO
THE REGION FM THE NW...INTO SUNDAY. AFTERWARD SFC LOW MOVING E TO OUR
SOUTH WILL DEEPEN INTO AN INTENSE OCEANIC STORM WELL OFFSHORE...BUT
CLOSE ENOUGH THAT COMBINED W/LARGE SFC HIGH OVER GREAT LAKES
REESTABLISHES A BRISK WIND GRADIENT OVER FORECAST AREA.

INCRG CLOUDS AND -SHRA/SN WILL BE TIED TO PASSING SHORT WAVES WITH
GREATEST THREAT LATE SUN INTO MON. THE BEGINNING AND END OF THE
PERIOD OFFER THE BEST CHC FOR PS SKIES...AND SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPS. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S WITH LOW 60S SOUTH. LOWS
IN THE 30S AND LOW 40S, TUES TEMPS WILL KICK UP A NOTCH...WITH
MOST AREAS REACHING THE 60S EXCEPT THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

WILL LARGELY POPULATE WITH GFSMOS...AND BLEND INTO CURRENT
FORECAST...UNLESS ECMWF SIGNIFICANTLY DEPARTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WPC SEEMS HAVE LARGELY GONE WITH AN ECMWF (LIGHT) SOLUTION THIS
AM. IN THIS SCENARIO RIDGING AT 500HPA BUILDS EAST...WITH BULK OF
SHORT WV ENERGY PASSING TO OUR SOUTH IN A SE STATES CUT OFF...AND
ANOTHER 500HPA CUTOFF ARRIVING TOWARD END OF PERIOD FM OTTAWA VALLEY.
THE GFS IS ONLY SIMILAR WITH THIS TIL THU...THEN MUCH MORE GREATLY
INTENSIFIES THE N BRANCH CUTOFF OVER NE USA...WITH JANUARY LIKE
BOMB ON THE SEABOARD...AS 520 DEKA METER METER CUT OFF PROPAGATES ACROSS THE
REGION. TO PUT IT MILDLY THIS LOOKS A BIT EXTREME AND OVERDONE.

IN THE WPC/ECMWF SOLUTION LARGE SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO NE
WED...COASTAL STORM PASSES JUST S OF REGION GLANCING SE AREAS WITH
CLOUDS AND CHC POPS THU AND SFC HIGH REASSERTS ITSELF FRI. THE
ECMWF HAS A DEEPER COASTAL STORM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH TOWARD THE END
OF THE PERIOD...BUT STRONGER COLD AIR ADVECTION IN ITS WAKE.

FOR NOW WILL POPULATE WITH WPC AND RETAIN CONTINUITY WITH CURRENT
FORECAST. TEMPS WILL RETURN TO NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.

THERE COULD SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON THAT COULD
BRIEFLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO MVFR OR EVEN IFR BUT ONLY A FEW
MINUTES AT MOST...AND NOT WORTH EVEN PLACING AS A TEMPO IN THE TAFS.

OTHERWISE VFR CIGS AROUND 5000 FEET AGL WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
EVENING PEAK. THE WIND WILL AVERAGE 10-15 KTS FROM A WEST OR
NORTHWEST DIRECTION WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO PERHAPS 30KTS...ESPECIALLY
AT KPSF AND KALB.

THE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING...AND THE CIGS WILL BECOME
SCATTERED LATER THIS EVENING AS WELL...FIRST AT KPOU THEN THE OTHER
TAF SITES AS WELL.

SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY DAY WITH EXCELLENT
VISIBILITIES. THE WIND WILL BECOME A LITTLE GUSTY AGAIN...WNW AROUND
10KTS...GUSTING TO 20KTS AFTER 12Z-14Z.

A CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT
BUT THE FLOW WILL BECOME LESS CYCLONIC ON SATURDAY.


OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WIND GUSTS UP OF 25-35 MPH LIKELY TODAY...

RH VALUES FALL TO 25-30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON IN VALLEY AREAS...

WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF GREATER THAN ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH
OCCURRED BETWEEN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF THIS WEEK.

OUR REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
LOW ANCHORED ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL PERSIST TODAY...AND RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 25-35
PERCENT RANGE IN VALLEYS...AND 35-50 PERCENT ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON.

THE RH SHOULD RECOVER TO 75-90 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN DROP INTO
THE 25-35 PERCENT RANGE ONCE AGAIN SAT AFTERNOON. WINDS SAT MAY
STILL OCCASIONALLY GUST UP TO 25-30 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF
MOSTLY SNOW IN THE MOUNTAIN. ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE
LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR HYDROLOGICAL
SERVICE AREA (HSA).

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/KL
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...HWJIV
JPV FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER




000
FXUS61 KALY 241656
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1256 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE STORM IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST...AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
CIRCULATE AROUND IT ACROSS THE REGION. EACH DISTURBANCE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASED CLOUDS...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...
ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WINDS WILL BE BRISK TO END THE
WEEK...AND START THE NEW WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMALS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1015 AM EDT...NOTHING MUCH HAS CHANGED FROM BEFORE...LOTS OF
CLOUDS...SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS AND CHILLY TEMPERATURES.
IN FACT AT ALBANY...TEMPERATURES THIS HOUR ACTUALLY FELL A DEGREE.

ONCE AGAIN DEALING WITH A COLD ATMOSPHERE WITH THE FREEZING
TEMPERATURE JUST OFF THE DECK. THE FLOW REMAINS CYCLONIC SO IT LOOKS
AS IF THE CLOUDS ARE HERE TO STAY ONCE MORE.

FOR THIS UPDATED...DECIDED TO LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES A CATEGORY DUE
TO THE CLOUDS AND COLD CORE ALOFT. LOOK FOR HIGHS ONLY 45-50 IN THE
VALLEYS...MID 30S TO LOWER 40S HIGHER TERRAIN.

A BRISK WIND 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH WILL MAKE THESE
VALUES FEEL ABOUT 10 DEGREES COLDER.

ALSO BELIEVE MOSTLY SNOW (OR GRAUPEL) WILL FALL ONCE MORE SO HAVE
SNOW SHOWERS WITH TEMPERATURES AS HIGH AS 43 DEGREES (DUE TO THE
EXCEPTIONALLY COLD AIR ALOFT). ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
CONFINED TO GRASSY AREAS OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.


TONIGHT...A COMPACT SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER WESTERN
QUEBEC...IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE SOUTHEASTWARD BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
SOME WEAK SYNOPTIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY ALLOW FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO LINGER INTO THIS
EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THEN...INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE AND RISING HEIGHTS SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE AREAL COVERAGE
OF ANY SNOW SHOWERS TO DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT...ALONG WITH
CLEARING SKIES. WINDS SHOULD PERSIST MUCH OF THE NIGHT...BUT COULD
TREND DOWNWARD TOWARD DAYBREAK...ALLOWING TEMPS TO FALL TO OR
BELOW FREEZING ACROSS A LARGER PORTION OF THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT...INCLUDING MANY VALLEY AREAS. HAVE SIDED WITH THE COOLER
GUIDANCE IN MOST AREAS...WITH WIDESPREAD 20S EXPECTED...EXCEPT
CLOSER TO 30 IN VALLEY AREAS. SHOULD WINDS DECREASE EVEN
QUICKER THAN EXPECTED...MIN TEMPS COULD BE COLDER.

SATURDAY...IT APPEARS THAT OUR REGION WILL LIE BETWEEN THE
SPRAWLING UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS EASTERN CANADA/CANADIAN
MARITIMES...AND A POTENT SHORTWAVE TRACKING WELL SOUTH OF THE
REGION INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. ENHANCED UPPER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS SHOULD PROMOTE SUBSIDENCE...AND
MUCH LESS IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. TEMPS
SHOULD RESPOND...CLIMBING INTO THE 55-60 RANGE FOR VALLEYS...AND
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS. EVEN WARMER MAX
TEMPS COULD OCCUR...AS MIXING DEPTHS COULD BECOME QUITE DEEP BY
LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY AT TIMES THROUGH THE
DAY...PERHAPS REACHING AROUND 30 MPH AT TIMES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
LARGE 500HPA CUTOFF LOW ROTATES ABOUT BUT REMAINS IN THE
MARITIMES...GULF OF MAINE AND OVER THE NORTHEAST USA THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...BEFORE FINALLY LIFTING SLOWLY OUT TO SEA TUESDAY.
THE ECMWF AND GFS FEATURE THIS LIFTING OUT...WHILE THE GEM KEEPS
THE CUT OFF CENTER AND SFC LOW WELL WEST OVER NEW ENGLAND. WILL
CONSIDER THE GEM THE OUTLIER AT THIS TIME GIVEN PREVIOUS RUNS AND
ENSEMBLES.

THE 5000HPA SHORT WV PARADE AROUND 500HPA CUTOFF WILL
PERSIST...BOTH THOSE ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN SYSTEM AND OTHERS
DROPPING INTO THE SYSTEM. AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO
THE REGION FM THE NW...INTO SUNDAY. AFTERWARD SFC LOW MOVING E TO OUR
SOUTH WILL DEEPEN INTO AN INTENSE OCEANIC STORM WELL OFFSHORE...BUT
CLOSE ENOUGH THAT COMBINED W/LARGE SFC HIGH OVER GREAT LAKES
REESTABLISHES A BRISK WIND GRADIENT OVER FORECAST AREA.

INCRG CLOUDS AND -SHRA/SN WILL BE TIED TO PASSING SHORT WAVES WITH
GREATEST THREAT LATE SUN INTO MON. THE BEGINNING AND END OF THE
PERIOD OFFER THE BEST CHC FOR PS SKIES...AND SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPS. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S WITH LOW 60S SOUTH. LOWS
IN THE 30S AND LOW 40S, TUES TEMPS WILL KICK UP A NOTCH...WITH
MOST AREAS REACHING THE 60S EXCEPT THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

WILL LARGELY POPULATE WITH GFSMOS...AND BLEND INTO CURRENT
FORECAST...UNLESS ECMWF SIGNIFICANTLY DEPARTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WPC SEEMS HAVE LARGELY GONE WITH AN ECMWF (LIGHT) SOLUTION THIS
AM. IN THIS SCENARIO RIDGING AT 500HPA BUILDS EAST...WITH BULK OF
SHORT WV ENERGY PASSING TO OUR SOUTH IN A SE STATES CUT OFF...AND
ANOTHER 500HPA CUTOFF ARRIVING TOWARD END OF PERIOD FM OTTAWA VALLEY.
THE GFS IS ONLY SIMILAR WITH THIS TIL THU...THEN MUCH MORE GREATLY
INTENSIFIES THE N BRANCH CUTOFF OVER NE USA...WITH JANUARY LIKE
BOMB ON THE SEABOARD...AS 520 DEKA METER METER CUT OFF PROPAGATES ACROSS THE
REGION. TO PUT IT MILDLY THIS LOOKS A BIT EXTREME AND OVERDONE.

IN THE WPC/ECMWF SOLUTION LARGE SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO NE
WED...COASTAL STORM PASSES JUST S OF REGION GLANCING SE AREAS WITH
CLOUDS AND CHC POPS THU AND SFC HIGH REASSERTS ITSELF FRI. THE
ECMWF HAS A DEEPER COASTAL STORM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH TOWARD THE END
OF THE PERIOD...BUT STRONGER COLD AIR ADVECTION IN ITS WAKE.

FOR NOW WILL POPULATE WITH WPC AND RETAIN CONTINUITY WITH CURRENT
FORECAST. TEMPS WILL RETURN TO NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.

THERE COULD SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON THAT COULD
BRIEFLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO MVFR OR EVEN IFR BUT ONLY A FEW
MINUTES AT MOST...AND NOT WORTH EVEN PLACING AS A TEMPO IN THE TAFS.

OTHERWISE VFR CIGS AROUND 5000 FEET AGL WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
EVENING PEAK. THE WIND WILL AVERAGE 10-15 KTS FROM A WEST OR
NORTHWEST DIRECTION WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO PERHAPS 30KTS...ESPECIALLY
AT KPSF AND KALB.

THE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING...AND THE CIGS WILL BECOME
SCATTERED LATER THIS EVENING AS WELL...FIRST AT KPOU THEN THE OTHER
TAF SITES AS WELL.

SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY DAY WITH EXCELLENT
VISIBILITIES. THE WIND WILL BECOME A LITTLE GUSTY AGAIN...WNW AROUND
10KTS...GUSTING TO 20KTS AFTER 12Z-14Z.

A CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT
BUT THE FLOW WILL BECOME LESS CYCLONIC ON SATURDAY.


OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WIND GUSTS UP OF 25-35 MPH LIKELY TODAY...

RH VALUES FALL TO 25-30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON IN VALLEY AREAS...

WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF GREATER THAN ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH
OCCURRED BETWEEN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF THIS WEEK.

OUR REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
LOW ANCHORED ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL PERSIST TODAY...AND RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 25-35
PERCENT RANGE IN VALLEYS...AND 35-50 PERCENT ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON.

THE RH SHOULD RECOVER TO 75-90 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN DROP INTO
THE 25-35 PERCENT RANGE ONCE AGAIN SAT AFTERNOON. WINDS SAT MAY
STILL OCCASIONALLY GUST UP TO 25-30 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF
MOSTLY SNOW IN THE MOUNTAIN. ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE
LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR HYDROLOGICAL
SERVICE AREA (HSA).

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/KL
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...HWJIV
JPV FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER




000
FXUS61 KALY 241656
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1256 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE STORM IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST...AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
CIRCULATE AROUND IT ACROSS THE REGION. EACH DISTURBANCE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASED CLOUDS...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...
ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WINDS WILL BE BRISK TO END THE
WEEK...AND START THE NEW WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMALS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1015 AM EDT...NOTHING MUCH HAS CHANGED FROM BEFORE...LOTS OF
CLOUDS...SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS AND CHILLY TEMPERATURES.
IN FACT AT ALBANY...TEMPERATURES THIS HOUR ACTUALLY FELL A DEGREE.

ONCE AGAIN DEALING WITH A COLD ATMOSPHERE WITH THE FREEZING
TEMPERATURE JUST OFF THE DECK. THE FLOW REMAINS CYCLONIC SO IT LOOKS
AS IF THE CLOUDS ARE HERE TO STAY ONCE MORE.

FOR THIS UPDATED...DECIDED TO LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES A CATEGORY DUE
TO THE CLOUDS AND COLD CORE ALOFT. LOOK FOR HIGHS ONLY 45-50 IN THE
VALLEYS...MID 30S TO LOWER 40S HIGHER TERRAIN.

A BRISK WIND 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH WILL MAKE THESE
VALUES FEEL ABOUT 10 DEGREES COLDER.

ALSO BELIEVE MOSTLY SNOW (OR GRAUPEL) WILL FALL ONCE MORE SO HAVE
SNOW SHOWERS WITH TEMPERATURES AS HIGH AS 43 DEGREES (DUE TO THE
EXCEPTIONALLY COLD AIR ALOFT). ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
CONFINED TO GRASSY AREAS OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.


TONIGHT...A COMPACT SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER WESTERN
QUEBEC...IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE SOUTHEASTWARD BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
SOME WEAK SYNOPTIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY ALLOW FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO LINGER INTO THIS
EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THEN...INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE AND RISING HEIGHTS SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE AREAL COVERAGE
OF ANY SNOW SHOWERS TO DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT...ALONG WITH
CLEARING SKIES. WINDS SHOULD PERSIST MUCH OF THE NIGHT...BUT COULD
TREND DOWNWARD TOWARD DAYBREAK...ALLOWING TEMPS TO FALL TO OR
BELOW FREEZING ACROSS A LARGER PORTION OF THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT...INCLUDING MANY VALLEY AREAS. HAVE SIDED WITH THE COOLER
GUIDANCE IN MOST AREAS...WITH WIDESPREAD 20S EXPECTED...EXCEPT
CLOSER TO 30 IN VALLEY AREAS. SHOULD WINDS DECREASE EVEN
QUICKER THAN EXPECTED...MIN TEMPS COULD BE COLDER.

SATURDAY...IT APPEARS THAT OUR REGION WILL LIE BETWEEN THE
SPRAWLING UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS EASTERN CANADA/CANADIAN
MARITIMES...AND A POTENT SHORTWAVE TRACKING WELL SOUTH OF THE
REGION INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. ENHANCED UPPER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS SHOULD PROMOTE SUBSIDENCE...AND
MUCH LESS IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. TEMPS
SHOULD RESPOND...CLIMBING INTO THE 55-60 RANGE FOR VALLEYS...AND
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS. EVEN WARMER MAX
TEMPS COULD OCCUR...AS MIXING DEPTHS COULD BECOME QUITE DEEP BY
LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY AT TIMES THROUGH THE
DAY...PERHAPS REACHING AROUND 30 MPH AT TIMES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
LARGE 500HPA CUTOFF LOW ROTATES ABOUT BUT REMAINS IN THE
MARITIMES...GULF OF MAINE AND OVER THE NORTHEAST USA THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...BEFORE FINALLY LIFTING SLOWLY OUT TO SEA TUESDAY.
THE ECMWF AND GFS FEATURE THIS LIFTING OUT...WHILE THE GEM KEEPS
THE CUT OFF CENTER AND SFC LOW WELL WEST OVER NEW ENGLAND. WILL
CONSIDER THE GEM THE OUTLIER AT THIS TIME GIVEN PREVIOUS RUNS AND
ENSEMBLES.

THE 5000HPA SHORT WV PARADE AROUND 500HPA CUTOFF WILL
PERSIST...BOTH THOSE ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN SYSTEM AND OTHERS
DROPPING INTO THE SYSTEM. AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO
THE REGION FM THE NW...INTO SUNDAY. AFTERWARD SFC LOW MOVING E TO OUR
SOUTH WILL DEEPEN INTO AN INTENSE OCEANIC STORM WELL OFFSHORE...BUT
CLOSE ENOUGH THAT COMBINED W/LARGE SFC HIGH OVER GREAT LAKES
REESTABLISHES A BRISK WIND GRADIENT OVER FORECAST AREA.

INCRG CLOUDS AND -SHRA/SN WILL BE TIED TO PASSING SHORT WAVES WITH
GREATEST THREAT LATE SUN INTO MON. THE BEGINNING AND END OF THE
PERIOD OFFER THE BEST CHC FOR PS SKIES...AND SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPS. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S WITH LOW 60S SOUTH. LOWS
IN THE 30S AND LOW 40S, TUES TEMPS WILL KICK UP A NOTCH...WITH
MOST AREAS REACHING THE 60S EXCEPT THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

WILL LARGELY POPULATE WITH GFSMOS...AND BLEND INTO CURRENT
FORECAST...UNLESS ECMWF SIGNIFICANTLY DEPARTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WPC SEEMS HAVE LARGELY GONE WITH AN ECMWF (LIGHT) SOLUTION THIS
AM. IN THIS SCENARIO RIDGING AT 500HPA BUILDS EAST...WITH BULK OF
SHORT WV ENERGY PASSING TO OUR SOUTH IN A SE STATES CUT OFF...AND
ANOTHER 500HPA CUTOFF ARRIVING TOWARD END OF PERIOD FM OTTAWA VALLEY.
THE GFS IS ONLY SIMILAR WITH THIS TIL THU...THEN MUCH MORE GREATLY
INTENSIFIES THE N BRANCH CUTOFF OVER NE USA...WITH JANUARY LIKE
BOMB ON THE SEABOARD...AS 520 DEKA METER METER CUT OFF PROPAGATES ACROSS THE
REGION. TO PUT IT MILDLY THIS LOOKS A BIT EXTREME AND OVERDONE.

IN THE WPC/ECMWF SOLUTION LARGE SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO NE
WED...COASTAL STORM PASSES JUST S OF REGION GLANCING SE AREAS WITH
CLOUDS AND CHC POPS THU AND SFC HIGH REASSERTS ITSELF FRI. THE
ECMWF HAS A DEEPER COASTAL STORM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH TOWARD THE END
OF THE PERIOD...BUT STRONGER COLD AIR ADVECTION IN ITS WAKE.

FOR NOW WILL POPULATE WITH WPC AND RETAIN CONTINUITY WITH CURRENT
FORECAST. TEMPS WILL RETURN TO NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.

THERE COULD SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON THAT COULD
BRIEFLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO MVFR OR EVEN IFR BUT ONLY A FEW
MINUTES AT MOST...AND NOT WORTH EVEN PLACING AS A TEMPO IN THE TAFS.

OTHERWISE VFR CIGS AROUND 5000 FEET AGL WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
EVENING PEAK. THE WIND WILL AVERAGE 10-15 KTS FROM A WEST OR
NORTHWEST DIRECTION WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO PERHAPS 30KTS...ESPECIALLY
AT KPSF AND KALB.

THE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING...AND THE CIGS WILL BECOME
SCATTERED LATER THIS EVENING AS WELL...FIRST AT KPOU THEN THE OTHER
TAF SITES AS WELL.

SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY DAY WITH EXCELLENT
VISIBILITIES. THE WIND WILL BECOME A LITTLE GUSTY AGAIN...WNW AROUND
10KTS...GUSTING TO 20KTS AFTER 12Z-14Z.

A CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT
BUT THE FLOW WILL BECOME LESS CYCLONIC ON SATURDAY.


OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WIND GUSTS UP OF 25-35 MPH LIKELY TODAY...

RH VALUES FALL TO 25-30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON IN VALLEY AREAS...

WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF GREATER THAN ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH
OCCURRED BETWEEN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF THIS WEEK.

OUR REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
LOW ANCHORED ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL PERSIST TODAY...AND RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 25-35
PERCENT RANGE IN VALLEYS...AND 35-50 PERCENT ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON.

THE RH SHOULD RECOVER TO 75-90 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN DROP INTO
THE 25-35 PERCENT RANGE ONCE AGAIN SAT AFTERNOON. WINDS SAT MAY
STILL OCCASIONALLY GUST UP TO 25-30 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF
MOSTLY SNOW IN THE MOUNTAIN. ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE
LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR HYDROLOGICAL
SERVICE AREA (HSA).

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/KL
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...HWJIV
JPV FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER




000
FXUS61 KALY 241656
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1256 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE STORM IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST...AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
CIRCULATE AROUND IT ACROSS THE REGION. EACH DISTURBANCE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASED CLOUDS...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...
ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WINDS WILL BE BRISK TO END THE
WEEK...AND START THE NEW WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMALS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1015 AM EDT...NOTHING MUCH HAS CHANGED FROM BEFORE...LOTS OF
CLOUDS...SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS AND CHILLY TEMPERATURES.
IN FACT AT ALBANY...TEMPERATURES THIS HOUR ACTUALLY FELL A DEGREE.

ONCE AGAIN DEALING WITH A COLD ATMOSPHERE WITH THE FREEZING
TEMPERATURE JUST OFF THE DECK. THE FLOW REMAINS CYCLONIC SO IT LOOKS
AS IF THE CLOUDS ARE HERE TO STAY ONCE MORE.

FOR THIS UPDATED...DECIDED TO LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES A CATEGORY DUE
TO THE CLOUDS AND COLD CORE ALOFT. LOOK FOR HIGHS ONLY 45-50 IN THE
VALLEYS...MID 30S TO LOWER 40S HIGHER TERRAIN.

A BRISK WIND 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH WILL MAKE THESE
VALUES FEEL ABOUT 10 DEGREES COLDER.

ALSO BELIEVE MOSTLY SNOW (OR GRAUPEL) WILL FALL ONCE MORE SO HAVE
SNOW SHOWERS WITH TEMPERATURES AS HIGH AS 43 DEGREES (DUE TO THE
EXCEPTIONALLY COLD AIR ALOFT). ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
CONFINED TO GRASSY AREAS OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.


TONIGHT...A COMPACT SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER WESTERN
QUEBEC...IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE SOUTHEASTWARD BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
SOME WEAK SYNOPTIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY ALLOW FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO LINGER INTO THIS
EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THEN...INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE AND RISING HEIGHTS SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE AREAL COVERAGE
OF ANY SNOW SHOWERS TO DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT...ALONG WITH
CLEARING SKIES. WINDS SHOULD PERSIST MUCH OF THE NIGHT...BUT COULD
TREND DOWNWARD TOWARD DAYBREAK...ALLOWING TEMPS TO FALL TO OR
BELOW FREEZING ACROSS A LARGER PORTION OF THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT...INCLUDING MANY VALLEY AREAS. HAVE SIDED WITH THE COOLER
GUIDANCE IN MOST AREAS...WITH WIDESPREAD 20S EXPECTED...EXCEPT
CLOSER TO 30 IN VALLEY AREAS. SHOULD WINDS DECREASE EVEN
QUICKER THAN EXPECTED...MIN TEMPS COULD BE COLDER.

SATURDAY...IT APPEARS THAT OUR REGION WILL LIE BETWEEN THE
SPRAWLING UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS EASTERN CANADA/CANADIAN
MARITIMES...AND A POTENT SHORTWAVE TRACKING WELL SOUTH OF THE
REGION INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. ENHANCED UPPER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS SHOULD PROMOTE SUBSIDENCE...AND
MUCH LESS IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. TEMPS
SHOULD RESPOND...CLIMBING INTO THE 55-60 RANGE FOR VALLEYS...AND
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS. EVEN WARMER MAX
TEMPS COULD OCCUR...AS MIXING DEPTHS COULD BECOME QUITE DEEP BY
LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY AT TIMES THROUGH THE
DAY...PERHAPS REACHING AROUND 30 MPH AT TIMES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
LARGE 500HPA CUTOFF LOW ROTATES ABOUT BUT REMAINS IN THE
MARITIMES...GULF OF MAINE AND OVER THE NORTHEAST USA THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...BEFORE FINALLY LIFTING SLOWLY OUT TO SEA TUESDAY.
THE ECMWF AND GFS FEATURE THIS LIFTING OUT...WHILE THE GEM KEEPS
THE CUT OFF CENTER AND SFC LOW WELL WEST OVER NEW ENGLAND. WILL
CONSIDER THE GEM THE OUTLIER AT THIS TIME GIVEN PREVIOUS RUNS AND
ENSEMBLES.

THE 5000HPA SHORT WV PARADE AROUND 500HPA CUTOFF WILL
PERSIST...BOTH THOSE ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN SYSTEM AND OTHERS
DROPPING INTO THE SYSTEM. AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO
THE REGION FM THE NW...INTO SUNDAY. AFTERWARD SFC LOW MOVING E TO OUR
SOUTH WILL DEEPEN INTO AN INTENSE OCEANIC STORM WELL OFFSHORE...BUT
CLOSE ENOUGH THAT COMBINED W/LARGE SFC HIGH OVER GREAT LAKES
REESTABLISHES A BRISK WIND GRADIENT OVER FORECAST AREA.

INCRG CLOUDS AND -SHRA/SN WILL BE TIED TO PASSING SHORT WAVES WITH
GREATEST THREAT LATE SUN INTO MON. THE BEGINNING AND END OF THE
PERIOD OFFER THE BEST CHC FOR PS SKIES...AND SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPS. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S WITH LOW 60S SOUTH. LOWS
IN THE 30S AND LOW 40S, TUES TEMPS WILL KICK UP A NOTCH...WITH
MOST AREAS REACHING THE 60S EXCEPT THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

WILL LARGELY POPULATE WITH GFSMOS...AND BLEND INTO CURRENT
FORECAST...UNLESS ECMWF SIGNIFICANTLY DEPARTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WPC SEEMS HAVE LARGELY GONE WITH AN ECMWF (LIGHT) SOLUTION THIS
AM. IN THIS SCENARIO RIDGING AT 500HPA BUILDS EAST...WITH BULK OF
SHORT WV ENERGY PASSING TO OUR SOUTH IN A SE STATES CUT OFF...AND
ANOTHER 500HPA CUTOFF ARRIVING TOWARD END OF PERIOD FM OTTAWA VALLEY.
THE GFS IS ONLY SIMILAR WITH THIS TIL THU...THEN MUCH MORE GREATLY
INTENSIFIES THE N BRANCH CUTOFF OVER NE USA...WITH JANUARY LIKE
BOMB ON THE SEABOARD...AS 520 DEKA METER METER CUT OFF PROPAGATES ACROSS THE
REGION. TO PUT IT MILDLY THIS LOOKS A BIT EXTREME AND OVERDONE.

IN THE WPC/ECMWF SOLUTION LARGE SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO NE
WED...COASTAL STORM PASSES JUST S OF REGION GLANCING SE AREAS WITH
CLOUDS AND CHC POPS THU AND SFC HIGH REASSERTS ITSELF FRI. THE
ECMWF HAS A DEEPER COASTAL STORM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH TOWARD THE END
OF THE PERIOD...BUT STRONGER COLD AIR ADVECTION IN ITS WAKE.

FOR NOW WILL POPULATE WITH WPC AND RETAIN CONTINUITY WITH CURRENT
FORECAST. TEMPS WILL RETURN TO NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.

THERE COULD SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON THAT COULD
BRIEFLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO MVFR OR EVEN IFR BUT ONLY A FEW
MINUTES AT MOST...AND NOT WORTH EVEN PLACING AS A TEMPO IN THE TAFS.

OTHERWISE VFR CIGS AROUND 5000 FEET AGL WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
EVENING PEAK. THE WIND WILL AVERAGE 10-15 KTS FROM A WEST OR
NORTHWEST DIRECTION WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO PERHAPS 30KTS...ESPECIALLY
AT KPSF AND KALB.

THE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING...AND THE CIGS WILL BECOME
SCATTERED LATER THIS EVENING AS WELL...FIRST AT KPOU THEN THE OTHER
TAF SITES AS WELL.

SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY DAY WITH EXCELLENT
VISIBILITIES. THE WIND WILL BECOME A LITTLE GUSTY AGAIN...WNW AROUND
10KTS...GUSTING TO 20KTS AFTER 12Z-14Z.

A CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT
BUT THE FLOW WILL BECOME LESS CYCLONIC ON SATURDAY.


OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WIND GUSTS UP OF 25-35 MPH LIKELY TODAY...

RH VALUES FALL TO 25-30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON IN VALLEY AREAS...

WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF GREATER THAN ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH
OCCURRED BETWEEN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF THIS WEEK.

OUR REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
LOW ANCHORED ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL PERSIST TODAY...AND RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 25-35
PERCENT RANGE IN VALLEYS...AND 35-50 PERCENT ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON.

THE RH SHOULD RECOVER TO 75-90 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN DROP INTO
THE 25-35 PERCENT RANGE ONCE AGAIN SAT AFTERNOON. WINDS SAT MAY
STILL OCCASIONALLY GUST UP TO 25-30 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF
MOSTLY SNOW IN THE MOUNTAIN. ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE
LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR HYDROLOGICAL
SERVICE AREA (HSA).

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/KL
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...HWJIV
JPV FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER




000
FXUS61 KOKX 241457
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1057 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY TO THE EAST. MEANWHILE...LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PASS BY TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW
WILL DEEPEN OVER THE ATLANTIC DURING THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLE...THE AREA WILL
REMAIN DRY TODAY AS AN UPPER AND SURFACE LOW REMAIN ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY TO THE
WEST WITH RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT. A CYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST TO WEST WIND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO
THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY A COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER WITH
LESS CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS CONTINUE TO MEANDER ACROSS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND SLOWLY FILL AS HIGHER PRESSURE
BUILDS TO THE WEST AND HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE. WITH A
COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE...SLIGHTLY LESS MIXING AND LESS CLOUD
COVER...TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE MORE LIKELY TO FALL TO FREEZING
OR BELOW ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
METROPOLITAN NEW YORK. SO A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION...SOME RECORD
LOWS WILL MAY BE SET...SEE CLIMATE SECTION. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY...AND THE AIRMASS WILL MODIFY
WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND LESS WIND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE LARGE UPR LOW SPINNING OVER
THE MARITIMES AND NERN CONUS. WITHIN THIS FLOW...A STRONG SHRTWV IS
PROGGED TO DROP THRU THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ERN ZONES...ON SUN. THIS
COULD BRING SOME ISOLD SHWRS. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING STRONGER
UPR ENERGY INTO THE REGION MON. THE ECMWF HOWEVER BRINGS THE MAIN
UPR LOW CENTER DOWN THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND AS A RESULT PROVIDES
BETTER DYNAMICS. FOR NOW KEPT POPS CAPPED AT ISOLD. IN
ADDITION...THE DEEPER ECMWF SOLN COULD RESULT IN SOME SNOW MIXING IN
MON NGT DUE TO THE MUCH COOLER COLUMN. RIDGING BUILDS IN TUE AND
WED...PRODUCING A WARMUP PARTICULARLY WRN ZONES. A SLOW MOVING
DEVELOPING LOW WILL BE THE NEXT FOCUS FOR PCPN TOWARDS THE END OF
NEXT WEEK. LEFT THU DRY FOR NOW AS THESE SYS TEND TO BE A BIT SLOWER
THAN PROGGED THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS
WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS AND A GUSTY NW FLOW.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BACK 20 TO 40 DEGREES COMPARED TO
TAF THIS AFTN WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SFC TROF. GUSTS
COULD OCCASIONALLY PEAK TO 30-35 KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTN.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BACK 20 TO 40 DEGREES COMPARED TO
TAF THIS AFTN WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SFC TROF. GUSTS
COULD OCCASIONALLY PEAK TO 30-35 KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTN.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BACK 20 TO 40 DEGREES COMPARED TO
TAF THIS AFTN WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SFC TROF. GUSTS
COULD OCCASIONALLY PEAK TO 30-35 KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTN.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BACK 20 TO 40 DEGREES THIS AFT
WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SFC TROF. GUSTS COULD OCCASIONALLY
PEAK TO 30-35 KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTN.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS COULD OCCASIONALLY PEAK TO 30-35 KT AT
TIMES THROUGH THE AFTN.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BACK 20 TO 40 DEGREES COMPARED TO
TAF THIS AFTN WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SFC TROF. GUSTS
COULD OCCASIONALLY PEAK TO 30-35 KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTN.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SAT THROUGH TUE...
.FRI NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS FRI EVENING.
.MON-TUE...MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH LOW PRESSURE REMAINING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST
WATERS AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST...A PERSISTENT GUSTY
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES INTO TONIGHT. WIND GUSTS TODAY AND INTO
TONIGHT TO LIKELY REACH 25 TO 30 KT AND THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE WATERS
AND THE LOW TO THE NORTHEAST WEAKENS. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. BECAUSE OF THE FREQUENT GUSTY
WIND UP TO 30 KT AN ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED ON ALL THE FORECAST
WATERS THROUGH 2 AM EDT SATURDAY AND ON THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH
600 AM SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ON THE OCEAN MAY CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY MORNING AND THE ADVISORY MA NEED TO BE EXTENDED.

WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS SUN AND MON. WINDS MAY APPROACH SCA LVLS
MON NGT AND TUE AS LOW PRES DEEPENS OVER THE ATLC...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE ERN OCEAN. WINDS AND SEAS THEN PROGGED TO FALL BLW SCA LVLS WED
AND THU.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL FALL BELOW 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON AND
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH ARE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...ALTHOUGH LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH OF
RAINFALL WILL HAVE FALLEN OVER THE PREVIOUS 3 DAYS...SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL MONDAY IS HELPING KEEP FORECAST 1 AND 10 HOUR FUEL
MOISTURE LEVELS HIGH ENOUGH TO HAMPER ELEVATED FIRE GROWTH
POTENTIAL. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS AND FORECAST LOWS FOR SATURDAY APRIL 25

NEWARK NJ...34/1936...36
BRIDGEPORT CT 32/1956...34
CENTRAL PARK NY 29/1919...37
LAGUARDIA NY 36/1971...39
KENNEDY NY *37/1971...37
ISLIP NY 36/2012...31

*AND PREVIOUS YEARS

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     CTZ005>012.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     NYZ067>070-078>081.
NJ...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     NJZ002-004-103>105-107.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/MET
NEAR TERM...JMC/MET/PW
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...JM/DW
MARINE...JMC/MET/PW
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JMC/MET
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KOKX 241457
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1057 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY TO THE EAST. MEANWHILE...LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PASS BY TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW
WILL DEEPEN OVER THE ATLANTIC DURING THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLE...THE AREA WILL
REMAIN DRY TODAY AS AN UPPER AND SURFACE LOW REMAIN ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY TO THE
WEST WITH RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT. A CYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST TO WEST WIND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO
THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY A COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER WITH
LESS CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS CONTINUE TO MEANDER ACROSS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND SLOWLY FILL AS HIGHER PRESSURE
BUILDS TO THE WEST AND HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE. WITH A
COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE...SLIGHTLY LESS MIXING AND LESS CLOUD
COVER...TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE MORE LIKELY TO FALL TO FREEZING
OR BELOW ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
METROPOLITAN NEW YORK. SO A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION...SOME RECORD
LOWS WILL MAY BE SET...SEE CLIMATE SECTION. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY...AND THE AIRMASS WILL MODIFY
WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND LESS WIND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE LARGE UPR LOW SPINNING OVER
THE MARITIMES AND NERN CONUS. WITHIN THIS FLOW...A STRONG SHRTWV IS
PROGGED TO DROP THRU THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ERN ZONES...ON SUN. THIS
COULD BRING SOME ISOLD SHWRS. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING STRONGER
UPR ENERGY INTO THE REGION MON. THE ECMWF HOWEVER BRINGS THE MAIN
UPR LOW CENTER DOWN THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND AS A RESULT PROVIDES
BETTER DYNAMICS. FOR NOW KEPT POPS CAPPED AT ISOLD. IN
ADDITION...THE DEEPER ECMWF SOLN COULD RESULT IN SOME SNOW MIXING IN
MON NGT DUE TO THE MUCH COOLER COLUMN. RIDGING BUILDS IN TUE AND
WED...PRODUCING A WARMUP PARTICULARLY WRN ZONES. A SLOW MOVING
DEVELOPING LOW WILL BE THE NEXT FOCUS FOR PCPN TOWARDS THE END OF
NEXT WEEK. LEFT THU DRY FOR NOW AS THESE SYS TEND TO BE A BIT SLOWER
THAN PROGGED THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS
WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS AND A GUSTY NW FLOW.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BACK 20 TO 40 DEGREES COMPARED TO
TAF THIS AFTN WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SFC TROF. GUSTS
COULD OCCASIONALLY PEAK TO 30-35 KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTN.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BACK 20 TO 40 DEGREES COMPARED TO
TAF THIS AFTN WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SFC TROF. GUSTS
COULD OCCASIONALLY PEAK TO 30-35 KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTN.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BACK 20 TO 40 DEGREES COMPARED TO
TAF THIS AFTN WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SFC TROF. GUSTS
COULD OCCASIONALLY PEAK TO 30-35 KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTN.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BACK 20 TO 40 DEGREES THIS AFT
WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SFC TROF. GUSTS COULD OCCASIONALLY
PEAK TO 30-35 KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTN.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS COULD OCCASIONALLY PEAK TO 30-35 KT AT
TIMES THROUGH THE AFTN.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BACK 20 TO 40 DEGREES COMPARED TO
TAF THIS AFTN WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SFC TROF. GUSTS
COULD OCCASIONALLY PEAK TO 30-35 KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTN.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SAT THROUGH TUE...
.FRI NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS FRI EVENING.
.MON-TUE...MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH LOW PRESSURE REMAINING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST
WATERS AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST...A PERSISTENT GUSTY
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES INTO TONIGHT. WIND GUSTS TODAY AND INTO
TONIGHT TO LIKELY REACH 25 TO 30 KT AND THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE WATERS
AND THE LOW TO THE NORTHEAST WEAKENS. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. BECAUSE OF THE FREQUENT GUSTY
WIND UP TO 30 KT AN ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED ON ALL THE FORECAST
WATERS THROUGH 2 AM EDT SATURDAY AND ON THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH
600 AM SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ON THE OCEAN MAY CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY MORNING AND THE ADVISORY MA NEED TO BE EXTENDED.

WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS SUN AND MON. WINDS MAY APPROACH SCA LVLS
MON NGT AND TUE AS LOW PRES DEEPENS OVER THE ATLC...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE ERN OCEAN. WINDS AND SEAS THEN PROGGED TO FALL BLW SCA LVLS WED
AND THU.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL FALL BELOW 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON AND
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH ARE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...ALTHOUGH LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH OF
RAINFALL WILL HAVE FALLEN OVER THE PREVIOUS 3 DAYS...SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL MONDAY IS HELPING KEEP FORECAST 1 AND 10 HOUR FUEL
MOISTURE LEVELS HIGH ENOUGH TO HAMPER ELEVATED FIRE GROWTH
POTENTIAL. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS AND FORECAST LOWS FOR SATURDAY APRIL 25

NEWARK NJ...34/1936...36
BRIDGEPORT CT 32/1956...34
CENTRAL PARK NY 29/1919...37
LAGUARDIA NY 36/1971...39
KENNEDY NY *37/1971...37
ISLIP NY 36/2012...31

*AND PREVIOUS YEARS

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     CTZ005>012.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     NYZ067>070-078>081.
NJ...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     NJZ002-004-103>105-107.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/MET
NEAR TERM...JMC/MET/PW
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...JM/DW
MARINE...JMC/MET/PW
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JMC/MET
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KOKX 241457
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1057 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY TO THE EAST. MEANWHILE...LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PASS BY TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW
WILL DEEPEN OVER THE ATLANTIC DURING THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLE...THE AREA WILL
REMAIN DRY TODAY AS AN UPPER AND SURFACE LOW REMAIN ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY TO THE
WEST WITH RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT. A CYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST TO WEST WIND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO
THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY A COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER WITH
LESS CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS CONTINUE TO MEANDER ACROSS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND SLOWLY FILL AS HIGHER PRESSURE
BUILDS TO THE WEST AND HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE. WITH A
COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE...SLIGHTLY LESS MIXING AND LESS CLOUD
COVER...TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE MORE LIKELY TO FALL TO FREEZING
OR BELOW ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
METROPOLITAN NEW YORK. SO A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION...SOME RECORD
LOWS WILL MAY BE SET...SEE CLIMATE SECTION. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY...AND THE AIRMASS WILL MODIFY
WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND LESS WIND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE LARGE UPR LOW SPINNING OVER
THE MARITIMES AND NERN CONUS. WITHIN THIS FLOW...A STRONG SHRTWV IS
PROGGED TO DROP THRU THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ERN ZONES...ON SUN. THIS
COULD BRING SOME ISOLD SHWRS. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING STRONGER
UPR ENERGY INTO THE REGION MON. THE ECMWF HOWEVER BRINGS THE MAIN
UPR LOW CENTER DOWN THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND AS A RESULT PROVIDES
BETTER DYNAMICS. FOR NOW KEPT POPS CAPPED AT ISOLD. IN
ADDITION...THE DEEPER ECMWF SOLN COULD RESULT IN SOME SNOW MIXING IN
MON NGT DUE TO THE MUCH COOLER COLUMN. RIDGING BUILDS IN TUE AND
WED...PRODUCING A WARMUP PARTICULARLY WRN ZONES. A SLOW MOVING
DEVELOPING LOW WILL BE THE NEXT FOCUS FOR PCPN TOWARDS THE END OF
NEXT WEEK. LEFT THU DRY FOR NOW AS THESE SYS TEND TO BE A BIT SLOWER
THAN PROGGED THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS
WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS AND A GUSTY NW FLOW.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BACK 20 TO 40 DEGREES COMPARED TO
TAF THIS AFTN WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SFC TROF. GUSTS
COULD OCCASIONALLY PEAK TO 30-35 KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTN.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BACK 20 TO 40 DEGREES COMPARED TO
TAF THIS AFTN WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SFC TROF. GUSTS
COULD OCCASIONALLY PEAK TO 30-35 KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTN.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BACK 20 TO 40 DEGREES COMPARED TO
TAF THIS AFTN WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SFC TROF. GUSTS
COULD OCCASIONALLY PEAK TO 30-35 KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTN.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BACK 20 TO 40 DEGREES THIS AFT
WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SFC TROF. GUSTS COULD OCCASIONALLY
PEAK TO 30-35 KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTN.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS COULD OCCASIONALLY PEAK TO 30-35 KT AT
TIMES THROUGH THE AFTN.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BACK 20 TO 40 DEGREES COMPARED TO
TAF THIS AFTN WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SFC TROF. GUSTS
COULD OCCASIONALLY PEAK TO 30-35 KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTN.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SAT THROUGH TUE...
.FRI NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS FRI EVENING.
.MON-TUE...MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH LOW PRESSURE REMAINING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST
WATERS AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST...A PERSISTENT GUSTY
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES INTO TONIGHT. WIND GUSTS TODAY AND INTO
TONIGHT TO LIKELY REACH 25 TO 30 KT AND THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE WATERS
AND THE LOW TO THE NORTHEAST WEAKENS. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. BECAUSE OF THE FREQUENT GUSTY
WIND UP TO 30 KT AN ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED ON ALL THE FORECAST
WATERS THROUGH 2 AM EDT SATURDAY AND ON THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH
600 AM SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ON THE OCEAN MAY CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY MORNING AND THE ADVISORY MA NEED TO BE EXTENDED.

WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS SUN AND MON. WINDS MAY APPROACH SCA LVLS
MON NGT AND TUE AS LOW PRES DEEPENS OVER THE ATLC...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE ERN OCEAN. WINDS AND SEAS THEN PROGGED TO FALL BLW SCA LVLS WED
AND THU.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL FALL BELOW 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON AND
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH ARE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...ALTHOUGH LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH OF
RAINFALL WILL HAVE FALLEN OVER THE PREVIOUS 3 DAYS...SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL MONDAY IS HELPING KEEP FORECAST 1 AND 10 HOUR FUEL
MOISTURE LEVELS HIGH ENOUGH TO HAMPER ELEVATED FIRE GROWTH
POTENTIAL. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS AND FORECAST LOWS FOR SATURDAY APRIL 25

NEWARK NJ...34/1936...36
BRIDGEPORT CT 32/1956...34
CENTRAL PARK NY 29/1919...37
LAGUARDIA NY 36/1971...39
KENNEDY NY *37/1971...37
ISLIP NY 36/2012...31

*AND PREVIOUS YEARS

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     CTZ005>012.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     NYZ067>070-078>081.
NJ...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     NJZ002-004-103>105-107.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/MET
NEAR TERM...JMC/MET/PW
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...JM/DW
MARINE...JMC/MET/PW
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JMC/MET
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KALY 241423
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1025 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A LARGE STORM IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST...AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
CIRCULATE AROUND IT ACROSS THE REGION. EACH DISTURBANCE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASED CLOUDS...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...
ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WINDS WILL BE BRISK TO END THE
WEEK...AND START THE NEW WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMALS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

AS OF 1015 AM EDT...NOTHING MUCH HAS CHANGED FROM BEFORE...LOTS OF
CLOUDS...SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS AND CHILLY TEMPERATURES.
IN FACT AT ALBANY...TEMPERATURES THIS HOUR ACTUALLY FELL A DEGREE.

ONCE AGAIN DEALING WITH A COLD ATMOSPHERE WITH THE FREEZING
TEMPERATURE JUST OFF THE DECK. THE FLOW REMAINS CYCLONIC SO IT LOOKS
AS IF THE CLOUDS ARE HERE TO STAY ONCE MORE.

FOR THIS UPDATED...DECIDED TO LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES A CATEGORY DUE
TO THE CLOUDS AND COLD CORE ALOFT. LOOK FOR HIGHS ONLY 45-50 IN THE
VALLEYS...MID 30S TO LOWER 40S HIGHER TERRAIN.

A BRISK WIND 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH WILL MAKE THESE
VALUES FEEL ABOUT 10 DEGREES COLDER.

ALSO BELIEVE MOSTLY SNOW (OR GRAUPEL) WILL FALL ONCE MORE SO HAVE
SNOW SHOWERS WITH TEMPERATURES AS HIGH AS 43 DEGREES (DUE TO THE
EXCEPTIONALLY COLD AIR ALOFT). ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
CONFINED TO GRASSY AREAS OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.


TONIGHT...A COMPACT SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER WESTERN
QUEBEC...IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE SOUTHEASTWARD BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
SOME WEAK SYNOPTIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY ALLOW FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO LINGER INTO THIS
EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THEN...INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE AND RISING HEIGHTS SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE AREAL COVERAGE
OF ANY SNOW SHOWERS TO DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT...ALONG WITH
CLEARING SKIES. WINDS SHOULD PERSIST MUCH OF THE NIGHT...BUT COULD
TREND DOWNWARD TOWARD DAYBREAK...ALLOWING TEMPS TO FALL TO OR
BELOW FREEZING ACROSS A LARGER PORTION OF THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT...INCLUDING MANY VALLEY AREAS. HAVE SIDED WITH THE COOLER
GUIDANCE IN MOST AREAS...WITH WIDESPREAD 20S EXPECTED...EXCEPT
CLOSER TO 30 IN VALLEY AREAS. SHOULD WINDS DECREASE EVEN
QUICKER THAN EXPECTED...MIN TEMPS COULD BE COLDER.

SATURDAY...IT APPEARS THAT OUR REGION WILL LIE BETWEEN THE
SPRAWLING UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS EASTERN CANADA/CANADIAN
MARITIMES...AND A POTENT SHORTWAVE TRACKING WELL SOUTH OF THE
REGION INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. ENHANCED UPPER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS SHOULD PROMOTE SUBSIDENCE...AND
MUCH LESS IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. TEMPS
SHOULD RESPOND...CLIMBING INTO THE 55-60 RANGE FOR VALLEYS...AND
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS. EVEN WARMER MAX
TEMPS COULD OCCUR...AS MIXING DEPTHS COULD BECOME QUITE DEEP BY
LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY AT TIMES THROUGH THE
DAY...PERHAPS REACHING AROUND 30 MPH AT TIMES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
LARGE 500HPA CUTOFF LOW ROTATES ABOUT BUT REMAINS IN THE
MARITIMES...GULF OF MAINE AND OVER THE NORTHEAST USA THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...BEFORE FINALLY LIFTING SLOWLY OUT TO SEA TUESDAY.
THE ECMWF AND GFS FEATURE THIS LIFTING OUT...WHILE THE GEM KEEPS
THE CUT OFF CENTER AND SFC LOW WELL WEST OVER NEW ENGLAND. WILL
CONSIDER THE GEM THE OUTLIER AT THIS TIME GIVEN PREVIOUS RUNS AND
ENSEMBLES.

THE 5000HPA SHORT WV PARADE AROUND 500HPA CUTOFF WILL
PERSIST...BOTH THOSE ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN SYSTEM AND OTHERS
DROPPING INTO THE SYSTEM. AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO
THE REGION FM THE NW...INTO SUNDAY. AFTERWARD SFC LOW MOVING E TO OUR
SOUTH WILL DEEPEN INTO AN INTENSE OCEANIC STORM WELL OFFSHORE...BUT
CLOSE ENOUGH THAT COMBINED W/LARGE SFC HIGH OVER GREAT LAKES
REESTABLISHES A BRISK WIND GRADIENT OVER FORECAST AREA.

INCRG CLOUDS AND -SHRA/SN WILL BE TIED TO PASSING SHORT WAVES WITH
GREATEST THREAT LATE SUN INTO MON. THE BEGINNING AND END OF THE
PERIOD OFFER THE BEST CHC FOR PS SKIES...AND SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPS. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S WITH LOW 60S SOUTH. LOWS
IN THE 30S AND LOW 40S, TUES TEMPS WILL KICK UP A NOTCH...WITH
MOST AREAS REACHING THE 60S EXCEPT THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

WILL LARGELY POPULATE WITH GFSMOS...AND BLEND INTO CURRENT
FORECAST...UNLESS ECMWF SIGNIFICANTLY DEPARTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WPC SEEMS HAVE LARGELY GONE WITH AN ECMWF (LIGHT) SOLUTION THIS
AM. IN THIS SCENARIO RIDGING AT 500HPA BUILDS EAST...WITH BULK OF
SHORT WV ENERGY PASSING TO OUR SOUTH IN A SE STATES CUT OFF...AND
ANOTHER 500HPA CUTOFF ARRIVING TOWARD END OF PERIOD FM OTTAWA VALLEY.
THE GFS IS ONLY SIMILAR WITH THIS TIL THU...THEN MUCH MORE GREATLY
INTENSIFIES THE N BRANCH CUTOFF OVER NE USA...WITH JANUARY LIKE
BOMB ON THE SEABOARD...AS 520 DEKA METER CUT OFF PROPAGATES ACROSS THE
REGION. TO PUT IT MILDLY THIS LOOKS A BIT EXTREME AND OVERDONE.

IN THE WPC/ECMWF SOLUTION LARGE SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO NE
WED...COASTAL STORM PASSES JUST S OF REGION GLANCING SE AREAS WITH
CLOUDS AND CHC POPS THU AND SFC HIGH REASSERTS ITSELF FRI. THE
ECMWF HAS A DEEPER COASTAL STORM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH TOWARD THE END
OF THE PERIOD...BUT STRONGER COLD AIR ADVECTION IN ITS WAKE.

FOR NOW WILL POPULATE WITH WPC AND RETAIN CONTINUITY WITH CURRENT
FORECAST. TEMPS WILL RETURN TO NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF
PERIOD ENDING 12Z/SAT. PLENTY OF CLOUDS...MAINLY IN VFR
RANGE...WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AND INTO FRIDAY
EVENING...ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. SCATTERED UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KPSF...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...ANY
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MUCH MORE ISOLATED THAN THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...ANY PASSING SNOW SHOWERS COULD EASILY DROP VSBYS INTO
THE MVFR/IFR RANGE.

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 12-15 KTS THIS
MORNING...WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 KTS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL THEN
DECREASE SLIGHTLY SEVERAL HOURS AFTER SUNSET FRIDAY AT 8-12 KT.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
     WIND GUSTS UP OF 25-35 MPH LIKELY TODAY...

     RH VALUES FALL TO 25-35 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON IN VALLEY
AREAS...

WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF GREATER THAN ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH
OCCURRED BETWEEN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF THIS WEEK.

OUR REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
LOW ANCHORED ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL PERSIST TODAY...AND RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 25-35
PERCENT RANGE IN VALLEYS...AND 35-50 PERCENT ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON.

THE RH SHOULD RECOVER TO 75-90 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN DROP INTO
THE 25-35 PERCENT RANGE ONCE AGAIN SAT AFTERNOON. WINDS SAT MAY
STILL OCCASIONALLY GUST UP TO 25-30 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF
MOSTLY SNOW IN THE MOUNTAIN. ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE
LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR HYDROLOGICAL
SERVICE AREA (HSA).

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/KL
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...KL/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER



000
FXUS61 KALY 241423
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1025 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A LARGE STORM IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST...AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
CIRCULATE AROUND IT ACROSS THE REGION. EACH DISTURBANCE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASED CLOUDS...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...
ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WINDS WILL BE BRISK TO END THE
WEEK...AND START THE NEW WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMALS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

AS OF 1015 AM EDT...NOTHING MUCH HAS CHANGED FROM BEFORE...LOTS OF
CLOUDS...SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS AND CHILLY TEMPERATURES.
IN FACT AT ALBANY...TEMPERATURES THIS HOUR ACTUALLY FELL A DEGREE.

ONCE AGAIN DEALING WITH A COLD ATMOSPHERE WITH THE FREEZING
TEMPERATURE JUST OFF THE DECK. THE FLOW REMAINS CYCLONIC SO IT LOOKS
AS IF THE CLOUDS ARE HERE TO STAY ONCE MORE.

FOR THIS UPDATED...DECIDED TO LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES A CATEGORY DUE
TO THE CLOUDS AND COLD CORE ALOFT. LOOK FOR HIGHS ONLY 45-50 IN THE
VALLEYS...MID 30S TO LOWER 40S HIGHER TERRAIN.

A BRISK WIND 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH WILL MAKE THESE
VALUES FEEL ABOUT 10 DEGREES COLDER.

ALSO BELIEVE MOSTLY SNOW (OR GRAUPEL) WILL FALL ONCE MORE SO HAVE
SNOW SHOWERS WITH TEMPERATURES AS HIGH AS 43 DEGREES (DUE TO THE
EXCEPTIONALLY COLD AIR ALOFT). ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
CONFINED TO GRASSY AREAS OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.


TONIGHT...A COMPACT SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER WESTERN
QUEBEC...IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE SOUTHEASTWARD BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
SOME WEAK SYNOPTIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY ALLOW FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO LINGER INTO THIS
EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THEN...INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE AND RISING HEIGHTS SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE AREAL COVERAGE
OF ANY SNOW SHOWERS TO DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT...ALONG WITH
CLEARING SKIES. WINDS SHOULD PERSIST MUCH OF THE NIGHT...BUT COULD
TREND DOWNWARD TOWARD DAYBREAK...ALLOWING TEMPS TO FALL TO OR
BELOW FREEZING ACROSS A LARGER PORTION OF THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT...INCLUDING MANY VALLEY AREAS. HAVE SIDED WITH THE COOLER
GUIDANCE IN MOST AREAS...WITH WIDESPREAD 20S EXPECTED...EXCEPT
CLOSER TO 30 IN VALLEY AREAS. SHOULD WINDS DECREASE EVEN
QUICKER THAN EXPECTED...MIN TEMPS COULD BE COLDER.

SATURDAY...IT APPEARS THAT OUR REGION WILL LIE BETWEEN THE
SPRAWLING UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS EASTERN CANADA/CANADIAN
MARITIMES...AND A POTENT SHORTWAVE TRACKING WELL SOUTH OF THE
REGION INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. ENHANCED UPPER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS SHOULD PROMOTE SUBSIDENCE...AND
MUCH LESS IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. TEMPS
SHOULD RESPOND...CLIMBING INTO THE 55-60 RANGE FOR VALLEYS...AND
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS. EVEN WARMER MAX
TEMPS COULD OCCUR...AS MIXING DEPTHS COULD BECOME QUITE DEEP BY
LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY AT TIMES THROUGH THE
DAY...PERHAPS REACHING AROUND 30 MPH AT TIMES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
LARGE 500HPA CUTOFF LOW ROTATES ABOUT BUT REMAINS IN THE
MARITIMES...GULF OF MAINE AND OVER THE NORTHEAST USA THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...BEFORE FINALLY LIFTING SLOWLY OUT TO SEA TUESDAY.
THE ECMWF AND GFS FEATURE THIS LIFTING OUT...WHILE THE GEM KEEPS
THE CUT OFF CENTER AND SFC LOW WELL WEST OVER NEW ENGLAND. WILL
CONSIDER THE GEM THE OUTLIER AT THIS TIME GIVEN PREVIOUS RUNS AND
ENSEMBLES.

THE 5000HPA SHORT WV PARADE AROUND 500HPA CUTOFF WILL
PERSIST...BOTH THOSE ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN SYSTEM AND OTHERS
DROPPING INTO THE SYSTEM. AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO
THE REGION FM THE NW...INTO SUNDAY. AFTERWARD SFC LOW MOVING E TO OUR
SOUTH WILL DEEPEN INTO AN INTENSE OCEANIC STORM WELL OFFSHORE...BUT
CLOSE ENOUGH THAT COMBINED W/LARGE SFC HIGH OVER GREAT LAKES
REESTABLISHES A BRISK WIND GRADIENT OVER FORECAST AREA.

INCRG CLOUDS AND -SHRA/SN WILL BE TIED TO PASSING SHORT WAVES WITH
GREATEST THREAT LATE SUN INTO MON. THE BEGINNING AND END OF THE
PERIOD OFFER THE BEST CHC FOR PS SKIES...AND SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPS. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S WITH LOW 60S SOUTH. LOWS
IN THE 30S AND LOW 40S, TUES TEMPS WILL KICK UP A NOTCH...WITH
MOST AREAS REACHING THE 60S EXCEPT THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

WILL LARGELY POPULATE WITH GFSMOS...AND BLEND INTO CURRENT
FORECAST...UNLESS ECMWF SIGNIFICANTLY DEPARTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WPC SEEMS HAVE LARGELY GONE WITH AN ECMWF (LIGHT) SOLUTION THIS
AM. IN THIS SCENARIO RIDGING AT 500HPA BUILDS EAST...WITH BULK OF
SHORT WV ENERGY PASSING TO OUR SOUTH IN A SE STATES CUT OFF...AND
ANOTHER 500HPA CUTOFF ARRIVING TOWARD END OF PERIOD FM OTTAWA VALLEY.
THE GFS IS ONLY SIMILAR WITH THIS TIL THU...THEN MUCH MORE GREATLY
INTENSIFIES THE N BRANCH CUTOFF OVER NE USA...WITH JANUARY LIKE
BOMB ON THE SEABOARD...AS 520 DEKA METER CUT OFF PROPAGATES ACROSS THE
REGION. TO PUT IT MILDLY THIS LOOKS A BIT EXTREME AND OVERDONE.

IN THE WPC/ECMWF SOLUTION LARGE SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO NE
WED...COASTAL STORM PASSES JUST S OF REGION GLANCING SE AREAS WITH
CLOUDS AND CHC POPS THU AND SFC HIGH REASSERTS ITSELF FRI. THE
ECMWF HAS A DEEPER COASTAL STORM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH TOWARD THE END
OF THE PERIOD...BUT STRONGER COLD AIR ADVECTION IN ITS WAKE.

FOR NOW WILL POPULATE WITH WPC AND RETAIN CONTINUITY WITH CURRENT
FORECAST. TEMPS WILL RETURN TO NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF
PERIOD ENDING 12Z/SAT. PLENTY OF CLOUDS...MAINLY IN VFR
RANGE...WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AND INTO FRIDAY
EVENING...ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. SCATTERED UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KPSF...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...ANY
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MUCH MORE ISOLATED THAN THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...ANY PASSING SNOW SHOWERS COULD EASILY DROP VSBYS INTO
THE MVFR/IFR RANGE.

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 12-15 KTS THIS
MORNING...WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 KTS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL THEN
DECREASE SLIGHTLY SEVERAL HOURS AFTER SUNSET FRIDAY AT 8-12 KT.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
     WIND GUSTS UP OF 25-35 MPH LIKELY TODAY...

     RH VALUES FALL TO 25-35 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON IN VALLEY
AREAS...

WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF GREATER THAN ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH
OCCURRED BETWEEN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF THIS WEEK.

OUR REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
LOW ANCHORED ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL PERSIST TODAY...AND RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 25-35
PERCENT RANGE IN VALLEYS...AND 35-50 PERCENT ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON.

THE RH SHOULD RECOVER TO 75-90 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN DROP INTO
THE 25-35 PERCENT RANGE ONCE AGAIN SAT AFTERNOON. WINDS SAT MAY
STILL OCCASIONALLY GUST UP TO 25-30 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF
MOSTLY SNOW IN THE MOUNTAIN. ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE
LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR HYDROLOGICAL
SERVICE AREA (HSA).

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/KL
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...KL/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER



000
FXUS61 KALY 241423
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1025 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A LARGE STORM IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST...AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
CIRCULATE AROUND IT ACROSS THE REGION. EACH DISTURBANCE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASED CLOUDS...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...
ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WINDS WILL BE BRISK TO END THE
WEEK...AND START THE NEW WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMALS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

AS OF 1015 AM EDT...NOTHING MUCH HAS CHANGED FROM BEFORE...LOTS OF
CLOUDS...SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS AND CHILLY TEMPERATURES.
IN FACT AT ALBANY...TEMPERATURES THIS HOUR ACTUALLY FELL A DEGREE.

ONCE AGAIN DEALING WITH A COLD ATMOSPHERE WITH THE FREEZING
TEMPERATURE JUST OFF THE DECK. THE FLOW REMAINS CYCLONIC SO IT LOOKS
AS IF THE CLOUDS ARE HERE TO STAY ONCE MORE.

FOR THIS UPDATED...DECIDED TO LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES A CATEGORY DUE
TO THE CLOUDS AND COLD CORE ALOFT. LOOK FOR HIGHS ONLY 45-50 IN THE
VALLEYS...MID 30S TO LOWER 40S HIGHER TERRAIN.

A BRISK WIND 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH WILL MAKE THESE
VALUES FEEL ABOUT 10 DEGREES COLDER.

ALSO BELIEVE MOSTLY SNOW (OR GRAUPEL) WILL FALL ONCE MORE SO HAVE
SNOW SHOWERS WITH TEMPERATURES AS HIGH AS 43 DEGREES (DUE TO THE
EXCEPTIONALLY COLD AIR ALOFT). ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
CONFINED TO GRASSY AREAS OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.


TONIGHT...A COMPACT SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER WESTERN
QUEBEC...IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE SOUTHEASTWARD BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
SOME WEAK SYNOPTIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY ALLOW FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO LINGER INTO THIS
EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THEN...INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE AND RISING HEIGHTS SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE AREAL COVERAGE
OF ANY SNOW SHOWERS TO DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT...ALONG WITH
CLEARING SKIES. WINDS SHOULD PERSIST MUCH OF THE NIGHT...BUT COULD
TREND DOWNWARD TOWARD DAYBREAK...ALLOWING TEMPS TO FALL TO OR
BELOW FREEZING ACROSS A LARGER PORTION OF THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT...INCLUDING MANY VALLEY AREAS. HAVE SIDED WITH THE COOLER
GUIDANCE IN MOST AREAS...WITH WIDESPREAD 20S EXPECTED...EXCEPT
CLOSER TO 30 IN VALLEY AREAS. SHOULD WINDS DECREASE EVEN
QUICKER THAN EXPECTED...MIN TEMPS COULD BE COLDER.

SATURDAY...IT APPEARS THAT OUR REGION WILL LIE BETWEEN THE
SPRAWLING UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS EASTERN CANADA/CANADIAN
MARITIMES...AND A POTENT SHORTWAVE TRACKING WELL SOUTH OF THE
REGION INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. ENHANCED UPPER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS SHOULD PROMOTE SUBSIDENCE...AND
MUCH LESS IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. TEMPS
SHOULD RESPOND...CLIMBING INTO THE 55-60 RANGE FOR VALLEYS...AND
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS. EVEN WARMER MAX
TEMPS COULD OCCUR...AS MIXING DEPTHS COULD BECOME QUITE DEEP BY
LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY AT TIMES THROUGH THE
DAY...PERHAPS REACHING AROUND 30 MPH AT TIMES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
LARGE 500HPA CUTOFF LOW ROTATES ABOUT BUT REMAINS IN THE
MARITIMES...GULF OF MAINE AND OVER THE NORTHEAST USA THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...BEFORE FINALLY LIFTING SLOWLY OUT TO SEA TUESDAY.
THE ECMWF AND GFS FEATURE THIS LIFTING OUT...WHILE THE GEM KEEPS
THE CUT OFF CENTER AND SFC LOW WELL WEST OVER NEW ENGLAND. WILL
CONSIDER THE GEM THE OUTLIER AT THIS TIME GIVEN PREVIOUS RUNS AND
ENSEMBLES.

THE 5000HPA SHORT WV PARADE AROUND 500HPA CUTOFF WILL
PERSIST...BOTH THOSE ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN SYSTEM AND OTHERS
DROPPING INTO THE SYSTEM. AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO
THE REGION FM THE NW...INTO SUNDAY. AFTERWARD SFC LOW MOVING E TO OUR
SOUTH WILL DEEPEN INTO AN INTENSE OCEANIC STORM WELL OFFSHORE...BUT
CLOSE ENOUGH THAT COMBINED W/LARGE SFC HIGH OVER GREAT LAKES
REESTABLISHES A BRISK WIND GRADIENT OVER FORECAST AREA.

INCRG CLOUDS AND -SHRA/SN WILL BE TIED TO PASSING SHORT WAVES WITH
GREATEST THREAT LATE SUN INTO MON. THE BEGINNING AND END OF THE
PERIOD OFFER THE BEST CHC FOR PS SKIES...AND SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPS. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S WITH LOW 60S SOUTH. LOWS
IN THE 30S AND LOW 40S, TUES TEMPS WILL KICK UP A NOTCH...WITH
MOST AREAS REACHING THE 60S EXCEPT THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

WILL LARGELY POPULATE WITH GFSMOS...AND BLEND INTO CURRENT
FORECAST...UNLESS ECMWF SIGNIFICANTLY DEPARTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WPC SEEMS HAVE LARGELY GONE WITH AN ECMWF (LIGHT) SOLUTION THIS
AM. IN THIS SCENARIO RIDGING AT 500HPA BUILDS EAST...WITH BULK OF
SHORT WV ENERGY PASSING TO OUR SOUTH IN A SE STATES CUT OFF...AND
ANOTHER 500HPA CUTOFF ARRIVING TOWARD END OF PERIOD FM OTTAWA VALLEY.
THE GFS IS ONLY SIMILAR WITH THIS TIL THU...THEN MUCH MORE GREATLY
INTENSIFIES THE N BRANCH CUTOFF OVER NE USA...WITH JANUARY LIKE
BOMB ON THE SEABOARD...AS 520 DEKA METER CUT OFF PROPAGATES ACROSS THE
REGION. TO PUT IT MILDLY THIS LOOKS A BIT EXTREME AND OVERDONE.

IN THE WPC/ECMWF SOLUTION LARGE SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO NE
WED...COASTAL STORM PASSES JUST S OF REGION GLANCING SE AREAS WITH
CLOUDS AND CHC POPS THU AND SFC HIGH REASSERTS ITSELF FRI. THE
ECMWF HAS A DEEPER COASTAL STORM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH TOWARD THE END
OF THE PERIOD...BUT STRONGER COLD AIR ADVECTION IN ITS WAKE.

FOR NOW WILL POPULATE WITH WPC AND RETAIN CONTINUITY WITH CURRENT
FORECAST. TEMPS WILL RETURN TO NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF
PERIOD ENDING 12Z/SAT. PLENTY OF CLOUDS...MAINLY IN VFR
RANGE...WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AND INTO FRIDAY
EVENING...ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. SCATTERED UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KPSF...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...ANY
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MUCH MORE ISOLATED THAN THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...ANY PASSING SNOW SHOWERS COULD EASILY DROP VSBYS INTO
THE MVFR/IFR RANGE.

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 12-15 KTS THIS
MORNING...WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 KTS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL THEN
DECREASE SLIGHTLY SEVERAL HOURS AFTER SUNSET FRIDAY AT 8-12 KT.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
     WIND GUSTS UP OF 25-35 MPH LIKELY TODAY...

     RH VALUES FALL TO 25-35 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON IN VALLEY
AREAS...

WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF GREATER THAN ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH
OCCURRED BETWEEN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF THIS WEEK.

OUR REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
LOW ANCHORED ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL PERSIST TODAY...AND RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 25-35
PERCENT RANGE IN VALLEYS...AND 35-50 PERCENT ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON.

THE RH SHOULD RECOVER TO 75-90 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN DROP INTO
THE 25-35 PERCENT RANGE ONCE AGAIN SAT AFTERNOON. WINDS SAT MAY
STILL OCCASIONALLY GUST UP TO 25-30 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF
MOSTLY SNOW IN THE MOUNTAIN. ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE
LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR HYDROLOGICAL
SERVICE AREA (HSA).

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/KL
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...KL/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER



000
FXUS61 KALY 241423
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1025 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A LARGE STORM IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST...AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
CIRCULATE AROUND IT ACROSS THE REGION. EACH DISTURBANCE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASED CLOUDS...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...
ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WINDS WILL BE BRISK TO END THE
WEEK...AND START THE NEW WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMALS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

AS OF 1015 AM EDT...NOTHING MUCH HAS CHANGED FROM BEFORE...LOTS OF
CLOUDS...SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS AND CHILLY TEMPERATURES.
IN FACT AT ALBANY...TEMPERATURES THIS HOUR ACTUALLY FELL A DEGREE.

ONCE AGAIN DEALING WITH A COLD ATMOSPHERE WITH THE FREEZING
TEMPERATURE JUST OFF THE DECK. THE FLOW REMAINS CYCLONIC SO IT LOOKS
AS IF THE CLOUDS ARE HERE TO STAY ONCE MORE.

FOR THIS UPDATED...DECIDED TO LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES A CATEGORY DUE
TO THE CLOUDS AND COLD CORE ALOFT. LOOK FOR HIGHS ONLY 45-50 IN THE
VALLEYS...MID 30S TO LOWER 40S HIGHER TERRAIN.

A BRISK WIND 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH WILL MAKE THESE
VALUES FEEL ABOUT 10 DEGREES COLDER.

ALSO BELIEVE MOSTLY SNOW (OR GRAUPEL) WILL FALL ONCE MORE SO HAVE
SNOW SHOWERS WITH TEMPERATURES AS HIGH AS 43 DEGREES (DUE TO THE
EXCEPTIONALLY COLD AIR ALOFT). ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
CONFINED TO GRASSY AREAS OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.


TONIGHT...A COMPACT SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER WESTERN
QUEBEC...IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE SOUTHEASTWARD BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
SOME WEAK SYNOPTIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY ALLOW FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO LINGER INTO THIS
EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THEN...INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE AND RISING HEIGHTS SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE AREAL COVERAGE
OF ANY SNOW SHOWERS TO DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT...ALONG WITH
CLEARING SKIES. WINDS SHOULD PERSIST MUCH OF THE NIGHT...BUT COULD
TREND DOWNWARD TOWARD DAYBREAK...ALLOWING TEMPS TO FALL TO OR
BELOW FREEZING ACROSS A LARGER PORTION OF THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT...INCLUDING MANY VALLEY AREAS. HAVE SIDED WITH THE COOLER
GUIDANCE IN MOST AREAS...WITH WIDESPREAD 20S EXPECTED...EXCEPT
CLOSER TO 30 IN VALLEY AREAS. SHOULD WINDS DECREASE EVEN
QUICKER THAN EXPECTED...MIN TEMPS COULD BE COLDER.

SATURDAY...IT APPEARS THAT OUR REGION WILL LIE BETWEEN THE
SPRAWLING UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS EASTERN CANADA/CANADIAN
MARITIMES...AND A POTENT SHORTWAVE TRACKING WELL SOUTH OF THE
REGION INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. ENHANCED UPPER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS SHOULD PROMOTE SUBSIDENCE...AND
MUCH LESS IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. TEMPS
SHOULD RESPOND...CLIMBING INTO THE 55-60 RANGE FOR VALLEYS...AND
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS. EVEN WARMER MAX
TEMPS COULD OCCUR...AS MIXING DEPTHS COULD BECOME QUITE DEEP BY
LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY AT TIMES THROUGH THE
DAY...PERHAPS REACHING AROUND 30 MPH AT TIMES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
LARGE 500HPA CUTOFF LOW ROTATES ABOUT BUT REMAINS IN THE
MARITIMES...GULF OF MAINE AND OVER THE NORTHEAST USA THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...BEFORE FINALLY LIFTING SLOWLY OUT TO SEA TUESDAY.
THE ECMWF AND GFS FEATURE THIS LIFTING OUT...WHILE THE GEM KEEPS
THE CUT OFF CENTER AND SFC LOW WELL WEST OVER NEW ENGLAND. WILL
CONSIDER THE GEM THE OUTLIER AT THIS TIME GIVEN PREVIOUS RUNS AND
ENSEMBLES.

THE 5000HPA SHORT WV PARADE AROUND 500HPA CUTOFF WILL
PERSIST...BOTH THOSE ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN SYSTEM AND OTHERS
DROPPING INTO THE SYSTEM. AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO
THE REGION FM THE NW...INTO SUNDAY. AFTERWARD SFC LOW MOVING E TO OUR
SOUTH WILL DEEPEN INTO AN INTENSE OCEANIC STORM WELL OFFSHORE...BUT
CLOSE ENOUGH THAT COMBINED W/LARGE SFC HIGH OVER GREAT LAKES
REESTABLISHES A BRISK WIND GRADIENT OVER FORECAST AREA.

INCRG CLOUDS AND -SHRA/SN WILL BE TIED TO PASSING SHORT WAVES WITH
GREATEST THREAT LATE SUN INTO MON. THE BEGINNING AND END OF THE
PERIOD OFFER THE BEST CHC FOR PS SKIES...AND SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPS. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S WITH LOW 60S SOUTH. LOWS
IN THE 30S AND LOW 40S, TUES TEMPS WILL KICK UP A NOTCH...WITH
MOST AREAS REACHING THE 60S EXCEPT THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

WILL LARGELY POPULATE WITH GFSMOS...AND BLEND INTO CURRENT
FORECAST...UNLESS ECMWF SIGNIFICANTLY DEPARTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WPC SEEMS HAVE LARGELY GONE WITH AN ECMWF (LIGHT) SOLUTION THIS
AM. IN THIS SCENARIO RIDGING AT 500HPA BUILDS EAST...WITH BULK OF
SHORT WV ENERGY PASSING TO OUR SOUTH IN A SE STATES CUT OFF...AND
ANOTHER 500HPA CUTOFF ARRIVING TOWARD END OF PERIOD FM OTTAWA VALLEY.
THE GFS IS ONLY SIMILAR WITH THIS TIL THU...THEN MUCH MORE GREATLY
INTENSIFIES THE N BRANCH CUTOFF OVER NE USA...WITH JANUARY LIKE
BOMB ON THE SEABOARD...AS 520 DEKA METER CUT OFF PROPAGATES ACROSS THE
REGION. TO PUT IT MILDLY THIS LOOKS A BIT EXTREME AND OVERDONE.

IN THE WPC/ECMWF SOLUTION LARGE SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO NE
WED...COASTAL STORM PASSES JUST S OF REGION GLANCING SE AREAS WITH
CLOUDS AND CHC POPS THU AND SFC HIGH REASSERTS ITSELF FRI. THE
ECMWF HAS A DEEPER COASTAL STORM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH TOWARD THE END
OF THE PERIOD...BUT STRONGER COLD AIR ADVECTION IN ITS WAKE.

FOR NOW WILL POPULATE WITH WPC AND RETAIN CONTINUITY WITH CURRENT
FORECAST. TEMPS WILL RETURN TO NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF
PERIOD ENDING 12Z/SAT. PLENTY OF CLOUDS...MAINLY IN VFR
RANGE...WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AND INTO FRIDAY
EVENING...ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. SCATTERED UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KPSF...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...ANY
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MUCH MORE ISOLATED THAN THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...ANY PASSING SNOW SHOWERS COULD EASILY DROP VSBYS INTO
THE MVFR/IFR RANGE.

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 12-15 KTS THIS
MORNING...WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 KTS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL THEN
DECREASE SLIGHTLY SEVERAL HOURS AFTER SUNSET FRIDAY AT 8-12 KT.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
     WIND GUSTS UP OF 25-35 MPH LIKELY TODAY...

     RH VALUES FALL TO 25-35 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON IN VALLEY
AREAS...

WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF GREATER THAN ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH
OCCURRED BETWEEN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF THIS WEEK.

OUR REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
LOW ANCHORED ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL PERSIST TODAY...AND RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 25-35
PERCENT RANGE IN VALLEYS...AND 35-50 PERCENT ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON.

THE RH SHOULD RECOVER TO 75-90 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN DROP INTO
THE 25-35 PERCENT RANGE ONCE AGAIN SAT AFTERNOON. WINDS SAT MAY
STILL OCCASIONALLY GUST UP TO 25-30 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF
MOSTLY SNOW IN THE MOUNTAIN. ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE
LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR HYDROLOGICAL
SERVICE AREA (HSA).

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/KL
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...KL/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER



000
FXUS61 KALY 241423
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1025 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A LARGE STORM IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST...AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
CIRCULATE AROUND IT ACROSS THE REGION. EACH DISTURBANCE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASED CLOUDS...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...
ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WINDS WILL BE BRISK TO END THE
WEEK...AND START THE NEW WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMALS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

AS OF 1015 AM EDT...NOTHING MUCH HAS CHANGED FROM BEFORE...LOTS OF
CLOUDS...SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS AND CHILLY TEMPERATURES.
IN FACT AT ALBANY...TEMPERATURES THIS HOUR ACTUALLY FELL A DEGREE.

ONCE AGAIN DEALING WITH A COLD ATMOSPHERE WITH THE FREEZING
TEMPERATURE JUST OFF THE DECK. THE FLOW REMAINS CYCLONIC SO IT LOOKS
AS IF THE CLOUDS ARE HERE TO STAY ONCE MORE.

FOR THIS UPDATED...DECIDED TO LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES A CATEGORY DUE
TO THE CLOUDS AND COLD CORE ALOFT. LOOK FOR HIGHS ONLY 45-50 IN THE
VALLEYS...MID 30S TO LOWER 40S HIGHER TERRAIN.

A BRISK WIND 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH WILL MAKE THESE
VALUES FEEL ABOUT 10 DEGREES COLDER.

ALSO BELIEVE MOSTLY SNOW (OR GRAUPEL) WILL FALL ONCE MORE SO HAVE
SNOW SHOWERS WITH TEMPERATURES AS HIGH AS 43 DEGREES (DUE TO THE
EXCEPTIONALLY COLD AIR ALOFT). ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
CONFINED TO GRASSY AREAS OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.


TONIGHT...A COMPACT SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER WESTERN
QUEBEC...IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE SOUTHEASTWARD BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
SOME WEAK SYNOPTIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY ALLOW FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO LINGER INTO THIS
EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THEN...INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE AND RISING HEIGHTS SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE AREAL COVERAGE
OF ANY SNOW SHOWERS TO DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT...ALONG WITH
CLEARING SKIES. WINDS SHOULD PERSIST MUCH OF THE NIGHT...BUT COULD
TREND DOWNWARD TOWARD DAYBREAK...ALLOWING TEMPS TO FALL TO OR
BELOW FREEZING ACROSS A LARGER PORTION OF THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT...INCLUDING MANY VALLEY AREAS. HAVE SIDED WITH THE COOLER
GUIDANCE IN MOST AREAS...WITH WIDESPREAD 20S EXPECTED...EXCEPT
CLOSER TO 30 IN VALLEY AREAS. SHOULD WINDS DECREASE EVEN
QUICKER THAN EXPECTED...MIN TEMPS COULD BE COLDER.

SATURDAY...IT APPEARS THAT OUR REGION WILL LIE BETWEEN THE
SPRAWLING UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS EASTERN CANADA/CANADIAN
MARITIMES...AND A POTENT SHORTWAVE TRACKING WELL SOUTH OF THE
REGION INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. ENHANCED UPPER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS SHOULD PROMOTE SUBSIDENCE...AND
MUCH LESS IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. TEMPS
SHOULD RESPOND...CLIMBING INTO THE 55-60 RANGE FOR VALLEYS...AND
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS. EVEN WARMER MAX
TEMPS COULD OCCUR...AS MIXING DEPTHS COULD BECOME QUITE DEEP BY
LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY AT TIMES THROUGH THE
DAY...PERHAPS REACHING AROUND 30 MPH AT TIMES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
LARGE 500HPA CUTOFF LOW ROTATES ABOUT BUT REMAINS IN THE
MARITIMES...GULF OF MAINE AND OVER THE NORTHEAST USA THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...BEFORE FINALLY LIFTING SLOWLY OUT TO SEA TUESDAY.
THE ECMWF AND GFS FEATURE THIS LIFTING OUT...WHILE THE GEM KEEPS
THE CUT OFF CENTER AND SFC LOW WELL WEST OVER NEW ENGLAND. WILL
CONSIDER THE GEM THE OUTLIER AT THIS TIME GIVEN PREVIOUS RUNS AND
ENSEMBLES.

THE 5000HPA SHORT WV PARADE AROUND 500HPA CUTOFF WILL
PERSIST...BOTH THOSE ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN SYSTEM AND OTHERS
DROPPING INTO THE SYSTEM. AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO
THE REGION FM THE NW...INTO SUNDAY. AFTERWARD SFC LOW MOVING E TO OUR
SOUTH WILL DEEPEN INTO AN INTENSE OCEANIC STORM WELL OFFSHORE...BUT
CLOSE ENOUGH THAT COMBINED W/LARGE SFC HIGH OVER GREAT LAKES
REESTABLISHES A BRISK WIND GRADIENT OVER FORECAST AREA.

INCRG CLOUDS AND -SHRA/SN WILL BE TIED TO PASSING SHORT WAVES WITH
GREATEST THREAT LATE SUN INTO MON. THE BEGINNING AND END OF THE
PERIOD OFFER THE BEST CHC FOR PS SKIES...AND SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPS. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S WITH LOW 60S SOUTH. LOWS
IN THE 30S AND LOW 40S, TUES TEMPS WILL KICK UP A NOTCH...WITH
MOST AREAS REACHING THE 60S EXCEPT THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

WILL LARGELY POPULATE WITH GFSMOS...AND BLEND INTO CURRENT
FORECAST...UNLESS ECMWF SIGNIFICANTLY DEPARTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WPC SEEMS HAVE LARGELY GONE WITH AN ECMWF (LIGHT) SOLUTION THIS
AM. IN THIS SCENARIO RIDGING AT 500HPA BUILDS EAST...WITH BULK OF
SHORT WV ENERGY PASSING TO OUR SOUTH IN A SE STATES CUT OFF...AND
ANOTHER 500HPA CUTOFF ARRIVING TOWARD END OF PERIOD FM OTTAWA VALLEY.
THE GFS IS ONLY SIMILAR WITH THIS TIL THU...THEN MUCH MORE GREATLY
INTENSIFIES THE N BRANCH CUTOFF OVER NE USA...WITH JANUARY LIKE
BOMB ON THE SEABOARD...AS 520 DEKA METER CUT OFF PROPAGATES ACROSS THE
REGION. TO PUT IT MILDLY THIS LOOKS A BIT EXTREME AND OVERDONE.

IN THE WPC/ECMWF SOLUTION LARGE SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO NE
WED...COASTAL STORM PASSES JUST S OF REGION GLANCING SE AREAS WITH
CLOUDS AND CHC POPS THU AND SFC HIGH REASSERTS ITSELF FRI. THE
ECMWF HAS A DEEPER COASTAL STORM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH TOWARD THE END
OF THE PERIOD...BUT STRONGER COLD AIR ADVECTION IN ITS WAKE.

FOR NOW WILL POPULATE WITH WPC AND RETAIN CONTINUITY WITH CURRENT
FORECAST. TEMPS WILL RETURN TO NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF
PERIOD ENDING 12Z/SAT. PLENTY OF CLOUDS...MAINLY IN VFR
RANGE...WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AND INTO FRIDAY
EVENING...ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. SCATTERED UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KPSF...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...ANY
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MUCH MORE ISOLATED THAN THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...ANY PASSING SNOW SHOWERS COULD EASILY DROP VSBYS INTO
THE MVFR/IFR RANGE.

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 12-15 KTS THIS
MORNING...WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 KTS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL THEN
DECREASE SLIGHTLY SEVERAL HOURS AFTER SUNSET FRIDAY AT 8-12 KT.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
     WIND GUSTS UP OF 25-35 MPH LIKELY TODAY...

     RH VALUES FALL TO 25-35 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON IN VALLEY
AREAS...

WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF GREATER THAN ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH
OCCURRED BETWEEN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF THIS WEEK.

OUR REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
LOW ANCHORED ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL PERSIST TODAY...AND RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 25-35
PERCENT RANGE IN VALLEYS...AND 35-50 PERCENT ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON.

THE RH SHOULD RECOVER TO 75-90 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN DROP INTO
THE 25-35 PERCENT RANGE ONCE AGAIN SAT AFTERNOON. WINDS SAT MAY
STILL OCCASIONALLY GUST UP TO 25-30 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF
MOSTLY SNOW IN THE MOUNTAIN. ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE
LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR HYDROLOGICAL
SERVICE AREA (HSA).

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/KL
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...KL/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER




000
FXUS61 KALY 241423
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1025 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A LARGE STORM IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST...AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
CIRCULATE AROUND IT ACROSS THE REGION. EACH DISTURBANCE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASED CLOUDS...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...
ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WINDS WILL BE BRISK TO END THE
WEEK...AND START THE NEW WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMALS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

AS OF 1015 AM EDT...NOTHING MUCH HAS CHANGED FROM BEFORE...LOTS OF
CLOUDS...SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS AND CHILLY TEMPERATURES.
IN FACT AT ALBANY...TEMPERATURES THIS HOUR ACTUALLY FELL A DEGREE.

ONCE AGAIN DEALING WITH A COLD ATMOSPHERE WITH THE FREEZING
TEMPERATURE JUST OFF THE DECK. THE FLOW REMAINS CYCLONIC SO IT LOOKS
AS IF THE CLOUDS ARE HERE TO STAY ONCE MORE.

FOR THIS UPDATED...DECIDED TO LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES A CATEGORY DUE
TO THE CLOUDS AND COLD CORE ALOFT. LOOK FOR HIGHS ONLY 45-50 IN THE
VALLEYS...MID 30S TO LOWER 40S HIGHER TERRAIN.

A BRISK WIND 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH WILL MAKE THESE
VALUES FEEL ABOUT 10 DEGREES COLDER.

ALSO BELIEVE MOSTLY SNOW (OR GRAUPEL) WILL FALL ONCE MORE SO HAVE
SNOW SHOWERS WITH TEMPERATURES AS HIGH AS 43 DEGREES (DUE TO THE
EXCEPTIONALLY COLD AIR ALOFT). ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
CONFINED TO GRASSY AREAS OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.


TONIGHT...A COMPACT SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER WESTERN
QUEBEC...IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE SOUTHEASTWARD BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
SOME WEAK SYNOPTIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY ALLOW FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO LINGER INTO THIS
EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THEN...INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE AND RISING HEIGHTS SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE AREAL COVERAGE
OF ANY SNOW SHOWERS TO DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT...ALONG WITH
CLEARING SKIES. WINDS SHOULD PERSIST MUCH OF THE NIGHT...BUT COULD
TREND DOWNWARD TOWARD DAYBREAK...ALLOWING TEMPS TO FALL TO OR
BELOW FREEZING ACROSS A LARGER PORTION OF THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT...INCLUDING MANY VALLEY AREAS. HAVE SIDED WITH THE COOLER
GUIDANCE IN MOST AREAS...WITH WIDESPREAD 20S EXPECTED...EXCEPT
CLOSER TO 30 IN VALLEY AREAS. SHOULD WINDS DECREASE EVEN
QUICKER THAN EXPECTED...MIN TEMPS COULD BE COLDER.

SATURDAY...IT APPEARS THAT OUR REGION WILL LIE BETWEEN THE
SPRAWLING UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS EASTERN CANADA/CANADIAN
MARITIMES...AND A POTENT SHORTWAVE TRACKING WELL SOUTH OF THE
REGION INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. ENHANCED UPPER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS SHOULD PROMOTE SUBSIDENCE...AND
MUCH LESS IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. TEMPS
SHOULD RESPOND...CLIMBING INTO THE 55-60 RANGE FOR VALLEYS...AND
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS. EVEN WARMER MAX
TEMPS COULD OCCUR...AS MIXING DEPTHS COULD BECOME QUITE DEEP BY
LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY AT TIMES THROUGH THE
DAY...PERHAPS REACHING AROUND 30 MPH AT TIMES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
LARGE 500HPA CUTOFF LOW ROTATES ABOUT BUT REMAINS IN THE
MARITIMES...GULF OF MAINE AND OVER THE NORTHEAST USA THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...BEFORE FINALLY LIFTING SLOWLY OUT TO SEA TUESDAY.
THE ECMWF AND GFS FEATURE THIS LIFTING OUT...WHILE THE GEM KEEPS
THE CUT OFF CENTER AND SFC LOW WELL WEST OVER NEW ENGLAND. WILL
CONSIDER THE GEM THE OUTLIER AT THIS TIME GIVEN PREVIOUS RUNS AND
ENSEMBLES.

THE 5000HPA SHORT WV PARADE AROUND 500HPA CUTOFF WILL
PERSIST...BOTH THOSE ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN SYSTEM AND OTHERS
DROPPING INTO THE SYSTEM. AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO
THE REGION FM THE NW...INTO SUNDAY. AFTERWARD SFC LOW MOVING E TO OUR
SOUTH WILL DEEPEN INTO AN INTENSE OCEANIC STORM WELL OFFSHORE...BUT
CLOSE ENOUGH THAT COMBINED W/LARGE SFC HIGH OVER GREAT LAKES
REESTABLISHES A BRISK WIND GRADIENT OVER FORECAST AREA.

INCRG CLOUDS AND -SHRA/SN WILL BE TIED TO PASSING SHORT WAVES WITH
GREATEST THREAT LATE SUN INTO MON. THE BEGINNING AND END OF THE
PERIOD OFFER THE BEST CHC FOR PS SKIES...AND SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPS. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S WITH LOW 60S SOUTH. LOWS
IN THE 30S AND LOW 40S, TUES TEMPS WILL KICK UP A NOTCH...WITH
MOST AREAS REACHING THE 60S EXCEPT THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

WILL LARGELY POPULATE WITH GFSMOS...AND BLEND INTO CURRENT
FORECAST...UNLESS ECMWF SIGNIFICANTLY DEPARTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WPC SEEMS HAVE LARGELY GONE WITH AN ECMWF (LIGHT) SOLUTION THIS
AM. IN THIS SCENARIO RIDGING AT 500HPA BUILDS EAST...WITH BULK OF
SHORT WV ENERGY PASSING TO OUR SOUTH IN A SE STATES CUT OFF...AND
ANOTHER 500HPA CUTOFF ARRIVING TOWARD END OF PERIOD FM OTTAWA VALLEY.
THE GFS IS ONLY SIMILAR WITH THIS TIL THU...THEN MUCH MORE GREATLY
INTENSIFIES THE N BRANCH CUTOFF OVER NE USA...WITH JANUARY LIKE
BOMB ON THE SEABOARD...AS 520 DEKA METER CUT OFF PROPAGATES ACROSS THE
REGION. TO PUT IT MILDLY THIS LOOKS A BIT EXTREME AND OVERDONE.

IN THE WPC/ECMWF SOLUTION LARGE SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO NE
WED...COASTAL STORM PASSES JUST S OF REGION GLANCING SE AREAS WITH
CLOUDS AND CHC POPS THU AND SFC HIGH REASSERTS ITSELF FRI. THE
ECMWF HAS A DEEPER COASTAL STORM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH TOWARD THE END
OF THE PERIOD...BUT STRONGER COLD AIR ADVECTION IN ITS WAKE.

FOR NOW WILL POPULATE WITH WPC AND RETAIN CONTINUITY WITH CURRENT
FORECAST. TEMPS WILL RETURN TO NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF
PERIOD ENDING 12Z/SAT. PLENTY OF CLOUDS...MAINLY IN VFR
RANGE...WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AND INTO FRIDAY
EVENING...ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. SCATTERED UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KPSF...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...ANY
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MUCH MORE ISOLATED THAN THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...ANY PASSING SNOW SHOWERS COULD EASILY DROP VSBYS INTO
THE MVFR/IFR RANGE.

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 12-15 KTS THIS
MORNING...WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 KTS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL THEN
DECREASE SLIGHTLY SEVERAL HOURS AFTER SUNSET FRIDAY AT 8-12 KT.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
     WIND GUSTS UP OF 25-35 MPH LIKELY TODAY...

     RH VALUES FALL TO 25-35 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON IN VALLEY
AREAS...

WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF GREATER THAN ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH
OCCURRED BETWEEN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF THIS WEEK.

OUR REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
LOW ANCHORED ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL PERSIST TODAY...AND RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 25-35
PERCENT RANGE IN VALLEYS...AND 35-50 PERCENT ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON.

THE RH SHOULD RECOVER TO 75-90 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN DROP INTO
THE 25-35 PERCENT RANGE ONCE AGAIN SAT AFTERNOON. WINDS SAT MAY
STILL OCCASIONALLY GUST UP TO 25-30 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF
MOSTLY SNOW IN THE MOUNTAIN. ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE
LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR HYDROLOGICAL
SERVICE AREA (HSA).

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/KL
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...KL/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER




000
FXUS61 KBOX 241412
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1012 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH
SPOTTY SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES. UNSETTLED WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS WELL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1000 AM UPDATE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE MOSTLY PULLED AWAY FROM
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT STILL A CHANCE THAT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
WOULD BRIEFLY PASS THRU THE MA NORTH SHORE BEFORE NOON. ALSO
CONTINUING TO MONITOR THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WITH A VERY LOW
CHANCE THAT SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MAKE IT INTO EXTREME
WESTERN FRANKLIN/HAMPSHIRE COUNTIES.

OTHERWISE MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY
WITH UPPER LOW IN OUR VICINITY. WITH SOME BREAKS OF SUN TEMPS
STILL EXPECTED TO CLIMB MAINLY INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S...EXCEPT LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF
CENTRAL/WESTERN MA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WE WILL HAVE ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL
CLOUDS WITH SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE
SIMILAR TO THOSE WE SAW YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
UPPER LOW SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...BUT THE COLD
POOL AND CLOUD MOISTURE LINGERS NEAR NEW ENGLAND. SO WE MAY NOT
CLEAR COMPLETELY...BUT PROBABLY FEWER CLOUDS THAN TONIGHT FOR A
TIME. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY MORNING SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THIS
MORNING. ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH FOR TONIGHT...AS CLEARER SKIES
COULD LEAD TO MORE FREEZING TEMPERATURES.

CLOUDS RETURN FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW CYCLES BACK
TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT WEEK
* SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND INTO MID-NEXT WEEK
* LOW CONFIDENCE ON COASTAL SYSTEM THURS/FRIDAY.

OVERVIEW...

DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER THE REGION BEGINS TO GRADUALLY PIVOT EAST
OFFSHORE NOVA SCOTIA ON SAT BUT THEN BECOMES NOTABLY ELONGATED BY
SUN AS ADDITIONAL ENERGY DROPS SOUTH DOWN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THE
00Z GEM IS THE WEAKEST SOLUTION WHILE THE 00Z GFS/00Z NAM/00Z UKMET
AND 00Z ECMWF ARE ALL BETTER CLUSTERED WITH DEPTH AND TIMING THROUGH
SUNDAY.

BY NEXT WEEK APPEARS UNSETTLED WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
CONTINUE AS BLOCKING PATTERN PERSIST...SUPPORTED BY -NAO/-AO/+PNA.
UPPER LEVEL LOW AND CONTINUED COLD POOL WILL KEEP ON SPINNING OVER
THE REGION MONDAY AND BEGIN TO EXIT LATE TUESDAY. STILL LOTS OF
QUESTIONS ABOUT THE MIGRATION OF THE DESERT CUTOFF LOW AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND ITS POTENTIAL WRAP UP INTO ANOTHER CLOSED
LOW FOR NEW ENGLAND. A KEY COMPONENT OF THE SYSTEM`S INTENSIFICATION
WILL BE THE INCORPORATION OF SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING SHORTWAVE ENERGY
AND WHERE THIS NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL PHASE WITH THE CUTOFF
SYSTEM. CURRENTLY THE 00Z GFS PHASES THE SOUTHERN PLAIN WAVE FASTER
THAN THE EC WHICH IS MORE AMPLIFIED. THE EC/S NORTHERN STREAM IS
FARTHER EASTWARD THAN THE GFS...IN WHICH THE EC SEEMS TO PULL A
COASTAL LOW CLOSER TO THE REGION BY THUS/FRI. REGARDLESS APPEARS
THAT A COASTAL LOW WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE REGION LATE IN THE
WORK WEEK. FELT ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE WAS BEST FOR THE WORK WEEK.

DETAILS...

* SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

STRONG CUTOFF LOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE NORTHEAST DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTER CONUS WILL BUILD
PUSHING THE BULK OF THE ENERGY OFFSHORE SAT NIGHT BEFORE THE LOW
MIGRATES BACK TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND BY SUNDAY. STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE NORTH INCREASING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ON SUNDAY. TEMPS MAY REACH 60F AS COLD POOL IS STILL
OFFSHORE.

* MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL RETROGRADE INCREASING THE CHANCES OF PRECIP
AS 2 POTENT SHORTWAVES MORE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM THE NORTH. COLD
POOL ALOFT SEEMS TO SIT OVER THE REGION AS WELL. CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
WILL BE HIGHER THAN FOR THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND AS LAPSE RATES WILL BE
STEEPER AND SOME HINTS OF INSTABILITY. INCREASED POPS ESP ALONG THE
MASS COASTLINE WHERE FORCING COULD OCCUR IF SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS.
TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER ON MONDAY THANKS
TO THE STRONG COLD POOL OVER THE REGION.


* WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...LOW CONFIDENCE.

STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. EVERYTHING
IS DEPENDENT ON HOW THE CUT-OFF LOW IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND
DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM WAVES BEHAVES. CURRENTLY BELIEVE WED IS A
TRANSITION DAY WITH MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION BUT
KEEPING TEMPS BELOW NORMAL. WATCHING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL
LOW ON THURSDAY/FRIDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND EC HAVE SHOWN THE COASTAL
LOW THIS TIME AROUND...SO CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT IT WILL
OCCUR. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE ENSEMBLES. THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY
FARTHER OFFSHORE AND FASTER COMPARED TO THE EC...REGARDLESS WET
WEATHER AND COOL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY LOWER
TO MVFR IN LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WEST
WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KNOTS DURING THE DAY.

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. MORE SPOTTY MVFR IN
SHOWERS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCT SHOWERS. SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST COAST EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

TODAY...HIGH OVERALL CONFIDENCE.

1000 AM UPDATE...WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST AT OR ABOVE 25KTS ACROSS
SOME OF THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. EXPECT THESE GUSTS TO CONTINUE
UNTIL AROUND NOON...SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL THAT TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WEST- NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 20 KT.
SEAS LINGER AROUND 5 FEET ON THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST OUTER
WATERS. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BRIEF PERIOD WHERE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NOT MET. THOUGHT IT BEST TO KEEP SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES GOING CONSISTENTLY ACROSS THE OUTER COASTAL
WATERS...RATHER THAN TAKING THEM DOWN...ONLY TO HAVE TO HOIST THEM
AGAIN LATER.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THOUGH TUESDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST. HIT OR MISS SHOWERS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY. WIND AND
SEAS TO REMAINS BELOW SCA ON SUNDAY. POTENT COLD POOL WILL FILTER
IN FROM THE NORTH CREATING STRONG CAA AN INCREASE WINDS/SEAS FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SCA MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE CONNECTICUT RIVER NEAR MIDDLE HADDAM IS EXPECTED TO GO ABOVE
ITS FLOOD STAGE ONE LAST TIME WITH THE HIGH TIDE THIS MORNING.
FURTHER HIGH TIDE CRESTS SHOULD THEN REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE
HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     CTZ002>004.
MA...NONE.
RI...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     RIZ001-003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ231>234-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...BELK/DUNTEN/NMB
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN/NMB
HYDROLOGY...STAFF




000
FXUS61 KBOX 241412
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1012 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH
SPOTTY SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES. UNSETTLED WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS WELL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1000 AM UPDATE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE MOSTLY PULLED AWAY FROM
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT STILL A CHANCE THAT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
WOULD BRIEFLY PASS THRU THE MA NORTH SHORE BEFORE NOON. ALSO
CONTINUING TO MONITOR THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WITH A VERY LOW
CHANCE THAT SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MAKE IT INTO EXTREME
WESTERN FRANKLIN/HAMPSHIRE COUNTIES.

OTHERWISE MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY
WITH UPPER LOW IN OUR VICINITY. WITH SOME BREAKS OF SUN TEMPS
STILL EXPECTED TO CLIMB MAINLY INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S...EXCEPT LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF
CENTRAL/WESTERN MA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WE WILL HAVE ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL
CLOUDS WITH SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE
SIMILAR TO THOSE WE SAW YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
UPPER LOW SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...BUT THE COLD
POOL AND CLOUD MOISTURE LINGERS NEAR NEW ENGLAND. SO WE MAY NOT
CLEAR COMPLETELY...BUT PROBABLY FEWER CLOUDS THAN TONIGHT FOR A
TIME. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY MORNING SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THIS
MORNING. ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH FOR TONIGHT...AS CLEARER SKIES
COULD LEAD TO MORE FREEZING TEMPERATURES.

CLOUDS RETURN FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW CYCLES BACK
TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT WEEK
* SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND INTO MID-NEXT WEEK
* LOW CONFIDENCE ON COASTAL SYSTEM THURS/FRIDAY.

OVERVIEW...

DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER THE REGION BEGINS TO GRADUALLY PIVOT EAST
OFFSHORE NOVA SCOTIA ON SAT BUT THEN BECOMES NOTABLY ELONGATED BY
SUN AS ADDITIONAL ENERGY DROPS SOUTH DOWN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THE
00Z GEM IS THE WEAKEST SOLUTION WHILE THE 00Z GFS/00Z NAM/00Z UKMET
AND 00Z ECMWF ARE ALL BETTER CLUSTERED WITH DEPTH AND TIMING THROUGH
SUNDAY.

BY NEXT WEEK APPEARS UNSETTLED WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
CONTINUE AS BLOCKING PATTERN PERSIST...SUPPORTED BY -NAO/-AO/+PNA.
UPPER LEVEL LOW AND CONTINUED COLD POOL WILL KEEP ON SPINNING OVER
THE REGION MONDAY AND BEGIN TO EXIT LATE TUESDAY. STILL LOTS OF
QUESTIONS ABOUT THE MIGRATION OF THE DESERT CUTOFF LOW AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND ITS POTENTIAL WRAP UP INTO ANOTHER CLOSED
LOW FOR NEW ENGLAND. A KEY COMPONENT OF THE SYSTEM`S INTENSIFICATION
WILL BE THE INCORPORATION OF SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING SHORTWAVE ENERGY
AND WHERE THIS NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL PHASE WITH THE CUTOFF
SYSTEM. CURRENTLY THE 00Z GFS PHASES THE SOUTHERN PLAIN WAVE FASTER
THAN THE EC WHICH IS MORE AMPLIFIED. THE EC/S NORTHERN STREAM IS
FARTHER EASTWARD THAN THE GFS...IN WHICH THE EC SEEMS TO PULL A
COASTAL LOW CLOSER TO THE REGION BY THUS/FRI. REGARDLESS APPEARS
THAT A COASTAL LOW WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE REGION LATE IN THE
WORK WEEK. FELT ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE WAS BEST FOR THE WORK WEEK.

DETAILS...

* SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

STRONG CUTOFF LOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE NORTHEAST DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTER CONUS WILL BUILD
PUSHING THE BULK OF THE ENERGY OFFSHORE SAT NIGHT BEFORE THE LOW
MIGRATES BACK TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND BY SUNDAY. STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE NORTH INCREASING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ON SUNDAY. TEMPS MAY REACH 60F AS COLD POOL IS STILL
OFFSHORE.

* MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL RETROGRADE INCREASING THE CHANCES OF PRECIP
AS 2 POTENT SHORTWAVES MORE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM THE NORTH. COLD
POOL ALOFT SEEMS TO SIT OVER THE REGION AS WELL. CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
WILL BE HIGHER THAN FOR THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND AS LAPSE RATES WILL BE
STEEPER AND SOME HINTS OF INSTABILITY. INCREASED POPS ESP ALONG THE
MASS COASTLINE WHERE FORCING COULD OCCUR IF SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS.
TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER ON MONDAY THANKS
TO THE STRONG COLD POOL OVER THE REGION.


* WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...LOW CONFIDENCE.

STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. EVERYTHING
IS DEPENDENT ON HOW THE CUT-OFF LOW IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND
DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM WAVES BEHAVES. CURRENTLY BELIEVE WED IS A
TRANSITION DAY WITH MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION BUT
KEEPING TEMPS BELOW NORMAL. WATCHING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL
LOW ON THURSDAY/FRIDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND EC HAVE SHOWN THE COASTAL
LOW THIS TIME AROUND...SO CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT IT WILL
OCCUR. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE ENSEMBLES. THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY
FARTHER OFFSHORE AND FASTER COMPARED TO THE EC...REGARDLESS WET
WEATHER AND COOL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY LOWER
TO MVFR IN LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WEST
WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KNOTS DURING THE DAY.

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. MORE SPOTTY MVFR IN
SHOWERS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCT SHOWERS. SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST COAST EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

TODAY...HIGH OVERALL CONFIDENCE.

1000 AM UPDATE...WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST AT OR ABOVE 25KTS ACROSS
SOME OF THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. EXPECT THESE GUSTS TO CONTINUE
UNTIL AROUND NOON...SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL THAT TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WEST- NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 20 KT.
SEAS LINGER AROUND 5 FEET ON THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST OUTER
WATERS. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BRIEF PERIOD WHERE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NOT MET. THOUGHT IT BEST TO KEEP SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES GOING CONSISTENTLY ACROSS THE OUTER COASTAL
WATERS...RATHER THAN TAKING THEM DOWN...ONLY TO HAVE TO HOIST THEM
AGAIN LATER.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THOUGH TUESDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST. HIT OR MISS SHOWERS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY. WIND AND
SEAS TO REMAINS BELOW SCA ON SUNDAY. POTENT COLD POOL WILL FILTER
IN FROM THE NORTH CREATING STRONG CAA AN INCREASE WINDS/SEAS FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SCA MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE CONNECTICUT RIVER NEAR MIDDLE HADDAM IS EXPECTED TO GO ABOVE
ITS FLOOD STAGE ONE LAST TIME WITH THE HIGH TIDE THIS MORNING.
FURTHER HIGH TIDE CRESTS SHOULD THEN REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE
HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     CTZ002>004.
MA...NONE.
RI...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     RIZ001-003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ231>234-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...BELK/DUNTEN/NMB
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN/NMB
HYDROLOGY...STAFF



000
FXUS61 KBOX 241412
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1012 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH
SPOTTY SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES. UNSETTLED WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS WELL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1000 AM UPDATE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE MOSTLY PULLED AWAY FROM
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT STILL A CHANCE THAT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
WOULD BRIEFLY PASS THRU THE MA NORTH SHORE BEFORE NOON. ALSO
CONTINUING TO MONITOR THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WITH A VERY LOW
CHANCE THAT SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MAKE IT INTO EXTREME
WESTERN FRANKLIN/HAMPSHIRE COUNTIES.

OTHERWISE MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY
WITH UPPER LOW IN OUR VICINITY. WITH SOME BREAKS OF SUN TEMPS
STILL EXPECTED TO CLIMB MAINLY INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S...EXCEPT LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF
CENTRAL/WESTERN MA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WE WILL HAVE ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL
CLOUDS WITH SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE
SIMILAR TO THOSE WE SAW YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
UPPER LOW SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...BUT THE COLD
POOL AND CLOUD MOISTURE LINGERS NEAR NEW ENGLAND. SO WE MAY NOT
CLEAR COMPLETELY...BUT PROBABLY FEWER CLOUDS THAN TONIGHT FOR A
TIME. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY MORNING SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THIS
MORNING. ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH FOR TONIGHT...AS CLEARER SKIES
COULD LEAD TO MORE FREEZING TEMPERATURES.

CLOUDS RETURN FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW CYCLES BACK
TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT WEEK
* SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND INTO MID-NEXT WEEK
* LOW CONFIDENCE ON COASTAL SYSTEM THURS/FRIDAY.

OVERVIEW...

DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER THE REGION BEGINS TO GRADUALLY PIVOT EAST
OFFSHORE NOVA SCOTIA ON SAT BUT THEN BECOMES NOTABLY ELONGATED BY
SUN AS ADDITIONAL ENERGY DROPS SOUTH DOWN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THE
00Z GEM IS THE WEAKEST SOLUTION WHILE THE 00Z GFS/00Z NAM/00Z UKMET
AND 00Z ECMWF ARE ALL BETTER CLUSTERED WITH DEPTH AND TIMING THROUGH
SUNDAY.

BY NEXT WEEK APPEARS UNSETTLED WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
CONTINUE AS BLOCKING PATTERN PERSIST...SUPPORTED BY -NAO/-AO/+PNA.
UPPER LEVEL LOW AND CONTINUED COLD POOL WILL KEEP ON SPINNING OVER
THE REGION MONDAY AND BEGIN TO EXIT LATE TUESDAY. STILL LOTS OF
QUESTIONS ABOUT THE MIGRATION OF THE DESERT CUTOFF LOW AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND ITS POTENTIAL WRAP UP INTO ANOTHER CLOSED
LOW FOR NEW ENGLAND. A KEY COMPONENT OF THE SYSTEM`S INTENSIFICATION
WILL BE THE INCORPORATION OF SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING SHORTWAVE ENERGY
AND WHERE THIS NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL PHASE WITH THE CUTOFF
SYSTEM. CURRENTLY THE 00Z GFS PHASES THE SOUTHERN PLAIN WAVE FASTER
THAN THE EC WHICH IS MORE AMPLIFIED. THE EC/S NORTHERN STREAM IS
FARTHER EASTWARD THAN THE GFS...IN WHICH THE EC SEEMS TO PULL A
COASTAL LOW CLOSER TO THE REGION BY THUS/FRI. REGARDLESS APPEARS
THAT A COASTAL LOW WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE REGION LATE IN THE
WORK WEEK. FELT ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE WAS BEST FOR THE WORK WEEK.

DETAILS...

* SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

STRONG CUTOFF LOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE NORTHEAST DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTER CONUS WILL BUILD
PUSHING THE BULK OF THE ENERGY OFFSHORE SAT NIGHT BEFORE THE LOW
MIGRATES BACK TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND BY SUNDAY. STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE NORTH INCREASING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ON SUNDAY. TEMPS MAY REACH 60F AS COLD POOL IS STILL
OFFSHORE.

* MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL RETROGRADE INCREASING THE CHANCES OF PRECIP
AS 2 POTENT SHORTWAVES MORE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM THE NORTH. COLD
POOL ALOFT SEEMS TO SIT OVER THE REGION AS WELL. CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
WILL BE HIGHER THAN FOR THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND AS LAPSE RATES WILL BE
STEEPER AND SOME HINTS OF INSTABILITY. INCREASED POPS ESP ALONG THE
MASS COASTLINE WHERE FORCING COULD OCCUR IF SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS.
TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER ON MONDAY THANKS
TO THE STRONG COLD POOL OVER THE REGION.


* WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...LOW CONFIDENCE.

STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. EVERYTHING
IS DEPENDENT ON HOW THE CUT-OFF LOW IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND
DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM WAVES BEHAVES. CURRENTLY BELIEVE WED IS A
TRANSITION DAY WITH MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION BUT
KEEPING TEMPS BELOW NORMAL. WATCHING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL
LOW ON THURSDAY/FRIDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND EC HAVE SHOWN THE COASTAL
LOW THIS TIME AROUND...SO CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT IT WILL
OCCUR. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE ENSEMBLES. THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY
FARTHER OFFSHORE AND FASTER COMPARED TO THE EC...REGARDLESS WET
WEATHER AND COOL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY LOWER
TO MVFR IN LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WEST
WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KNOTS DURING THE DAY.

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. MORE SPOTTY MVFR IN
SHOWERS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCT SHOWERS. SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST COAST EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

TODAY...HIGH OVERALL CONFIDENCE.

1000 AM UPDATE...WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST AT OR ABOVE 25KTS ACROSS
SOME OF THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. EXPECT THESE GUSTS TO CONTINUE
UNTIL AROUND NOON...SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL THAT TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WEST- NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 20 KT.
SEAS LINGER AROUND 5 FEET ON THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST OUTER
WATERS. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BRIEF PERIOD WHERE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NOT MET. THOUGHT IT BEST TO KEEP SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES GOING CONSISTENTLY ACROSS THE OUTER COASTAL
WATERS...RATHER THAN TAKING THEM DOWN...ONLY TO HAVE TO HOIST THEM
AGAIN LATER.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THOUGH TUESDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST. HIT OR MISS SHOWERS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY. WIND AND
SEAS TO REMAINS BELOW SCA ON SUNDAY. POTENT COLD POOL WILL FILTER
IN FROM THE NORTH CREATING STRONG CAA AN INCREASE WINDS/SEAS FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SCA MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE CONNECTICUT RIVER NEAR MIDDLE HADDAM IS EXPECTED TO GO ABOVE
ITS FLOOD STAGE ONE LAST TIME WITH THE HIGH TIDE THIS MORNING.
FURTHER HIGH TIDE CRESTS SHOULD THEN REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE
HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     CTZ002>004.
MA...NONE.
RI...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     RIZ001-003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ231>234-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...BELK/DUNTEN/NMB
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN/NMB
HYDROLOGY...STAFF




000
FXUS61 KBOX 241412
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1012 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH
SPOTTY SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES. UNSETTLED WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS WELL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1000 AM UPDATE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE MOSTLY PULLED AWAY FROM
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT STILL A CHANCE THAT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
WOULD BRIEFLY PASS THRU THE MA NORTH SHORE BEFORE NOON. ALSO
CONTINUING TO MONITOR THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WITH A VERY LOW
CHANCE THAT SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MAKE IT INTO EXTREME
WESTERN FRANKLIN/HAMPSHIRE COUNTIES.

OTHERWISE MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY
WITH UPPER LOW IN OUR VICINITY. WITH SOME BREAKS OF SUN TEMPS
STILL EXPECTED TO CLIMB MAINLY INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S...EXCEPT LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF
CENTRAL/WESTERN MA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WE WILL HAVE ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL
CLOUDS WITH SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE
SIMILAR TO THOSE WE SAW YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
UPPER LOW SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...BUT THE COLD
POOL AND CLOUD MOISTURE LINGERS NEAR NEW ENGLAND. SO WE MAY NOT
CLEAR COMPLETELY...BUT PROBABLY FEWER CLOUDS THAN TONIGHT FOR A
TIME. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY MORNING SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THIS
MORNING. ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH FOR TONIGHT...AS CLEARER SKIES
COULD LEAD TO MORE FREEZING TEMPERATURES.

CLOUDS RETURN FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW CYCLES BACK
TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT WEEK
* SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND INTO MID-NEXT WEEK
* LOW CONFIDENCE ON COASTAL SYSTEM THURS/FRIDAY.

OVERVIEW...

DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER THE REGION BEGINS TO GRADUALLY PIVOT EAST
OFFSHORE NOVA SCOTIA ON SAT BUT THEN BECOMES NOTABLY ELONGATED BY
SUN AS ADDITIONAL ENERGY DROPS SOUTH DOWN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THE
00Z GEM IS THE WEAKEST SOLUTION WHILE THE 00Z GFS/00Z NAM/00Z UKMET
AND 00Z ECMWF ARE ALL BETTER CLUSTERED WITH DEPTH AND TIMING THROUGH
SUNDAY.

BY NEXT WEEK APPEARS UNSETTLED WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
CONTINUE AS BLOCKING PATTERN PERSIST...SUPPORTED BY -NAO/-AO/+PNA.
UPPER LEVEL LOW AND CONTINUED COLD POOL WILL KEEP ON SPINNING OVER
THE REGION MONDAY AND BEGIN TO EXIT LATE TUESDAY. STILL LOTS OF
QUESTIONS ABOUT THE MIGRATION OF THE DESERT CUTOFF LOW AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND ITS POTENTIAL WRAP UP INTO ANOTHER CLOSED
LOW FOR NEW ENGLAND. A KEY COMPONENT OF THE SYSTEM`S INTENSIFICATION
WILL BE THE INCORPORATION OF SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING SHORTWAVE ENERGY
AND WHERE THIS NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL PHASE WITH THE CUTOFF
SYSTEM. CURRENTLY THE 00Z GFS PHASES THE SOUTHERN PLAIN WAVE FASTER
THAN THE EC WHICH IS MORE AMPLIFIED. THE EC/S NORTHERN STREAM IS
FARTHER EASTWARD THAN THE GFS...IN WHICH THE EC SEEMS TO PULL A
COASTAL LOW CLOSER TO THE REGION BY THUS/FRI. REGARDLESS APPEARS
THAT A COASTAL LOW WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE REGION LATE IN THE
WORK WEEK. FELT ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE WAS BEST FOR THE WORK WEEK.

DETAILS...

* SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

STRONG CUTOFF LOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE NORTHEAST DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTER CONUS WILL BUILD
PUSHING THE BULK OF THE ENERGY OFFSHORE SAT NIGHT BEFORE THE LOW
MIGRATES BACK TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND BY SUNDAY. STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE NORTH INCREASING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ON SUNDAY. TEMPS MAY REACH 60F AS COLD POOL IS STILL
OFFSHORE.

* MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL RETROGRADE INCREASING THE CHANCES OF PRECIP
AS 2 POTENT SHORTWAVES MORE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM THE NORTH. COLD
POOL ALOFT SEEMS TO SIT OVER THE REGION AS WELL. CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
WILL BE HIGHER THAN FOR THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND AS LAPSE RATES WILL BE
STEEPER AND SOME HINTS OF INSTABILITY. INCREASED POPS ESP ALONG THE
MASS COASTLINE WHERE FORCING COULD OCCUR IF SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS.
TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER ON MONDAY THANKS
TO THE STRONG COLD POOL OVER THE REGION.


* WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...LOW CONFIDENCE.

STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. EVERYTHING
IS DEPENDENT ON HOW THE CUT-OFF LOW IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND
DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM WAVES BEHAVES. CURRENTLY BELIEVE WED IS A
TRANSITION DAY WITH MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION BUT
KEEPING TEMPS BELOW NORMAL. WATCHING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL
LOW ON THURSDAY/FRIDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND EC HAVE SHOWN THE COASTAL
LOW THIS TIME AROUND...SO CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT IT WILL
OCCUR. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE ENSEMBLES. THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY
FARTHER OFFSHORE AND FASTER COMPARED TO THE EC...REGARDLESS WET
WEATHER AND COOL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY LOWER
TO MVFR IN LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WEST
WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KNOTS DURING THE DAY.

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. MORE SPOTTY MVFR IN
SHOWERS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCT SHOWERS. SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST COAST EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

TODAY...HIGH OVERALL CONFIDENCE.

1000 AM UPDATE...WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST AT OR ABOVE 25KTS ACROSS
SOME OF THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. EXPECT THESE GUSTS TO CONTINUE
UNTIL AROUND NOON...SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL THAT TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WEST- NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 20 KT.
SEAS LINGER AROUND 5 FEET ON THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST OUTER
WATERS. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BRIEF PERIOD WHERE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NOT MET. THOUGHT IT BEST TO KEEP SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES GOING CONSISTENTLY ACROSS THE OUTER COASTAL
WATERS...RATHER THAN TAKING THEM DOWN...ONLY TO HAVE TO HOIST THEM
AGAIN LATER.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THOUGH TUESDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST. HIT OR MISS SHOWERS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY. WIND AND
SEAS TO REMAINS BELOW SCA ON SUNDAY. POTENT COLD POOL WILL FILTER
IN FROM THE NORTH CREATING STRONG CAA AN INCREASE WINDS/SEAS FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SCA MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE CONNECTICUT RIVER NEAR MIDDLE HADDAM IS EXPECTED TO GO ABOVE
ITS FLOOD STAGE ONE LAST TIME WITH THE HIGH TIDE THIS MORNING.
FURTHER HIGH TIDE CRESTS SHOULD THEN REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE
HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     CTZ002>004.
MA...NONE.
RI...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     RIZ001-003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ231>234-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...BELK/DUNTEN/NMB
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN/NMB
HYDROLOGY...STAFF




000
FXUS61 KBOX 241412
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1012 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH
SPOTTY SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES. UNSETTLED WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS WELL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1000 AM UPDATE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE MOSTLY PULLED AWAY FROM
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT STILL A CHANCE THAT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
WOULD BRIEFLY PASS THRU THE MA NORTH SHORE BEFORE NOON. ALSO
CONTINUING TO MONITOR THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WITH A VERY LOW
CHANCE THAT SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MAKE IT INTO EXTREME
WESTERN FRANKLIN/HAMPSHIRE COUNTIES.

OTHERWISE MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY
WITH UPPER LOW IN OUR VICINITY. WITH SOME BREAKS OF SUN TEMPS
STILL EXPECTED TO CLIMB MAINLY INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S...EXCEPT LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF
CENTRAL/WESTERN MA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WE WILL HAVE ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL
CLOUDS WITH SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE
SIMILAR TO THOSE WE SAW YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
UPPER LOW SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...BUT THE COLD
POOL AND CLOUD MOISTURE LINGERS NEAR NEW ENGLAND. SO WE MAY NOT
CLEAR COMPLETELY...BUT PROBABLY FEWER CLOUDS THAN TONIGHT FOR A
TIME. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY MORNING SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THIS
MORNING. ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH FOR TONIGHT...AS CLEARER SKIES
COULD LEAD TO MORE FREEZING TEMPERATURES.

CLOUDS RETURN FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW CYCLES BACK
TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT WEEK
* SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND INTO MID-NEXT WEEK
* LOW CONFIDENCE ON COASTAL SYSTEM THURS/FRIDAY.

OVERVIEW...

DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER THE REGION BEGINS TO GRADUALLY PIVOT EAST
OFFSHORE NOVA SCOTIA ON SAT BUT THEN BECOMES NOTABLY ELONGATED BY
SUN AS ADDITIONAL ENERGY DROPS SOUTH DOWN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THE
00Z GEM IS THE WEAKEST SOLUTION WHILE THE 00Z GFS/00Z NAM/00Z UKMET
AND 00Z ECMWF ARE ALL BETTER CLUSTERED WITH DEPTH AND TIMING THROUGH
SUNDAY.

BY NEXT WEEK APPEARS UNSETTLED WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
CONTINUE AS BLOCKING PATTERN PERSIST...SUPPORTED BY -NAO/-AO/+PNA.
UPPER LEVEL LOW AND CONTINUED COLD POOL WILL KEEP ON SPINNING OVER
THE REGION MONDAY AND BEGIN TO EXIT LATE TUESDAY. STILL LOTS OF
QUESTIONS ABOUT THE MIGRATION OF THE DESERT CUTOFF LOW AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND ITS POTENTIAL WRAP UP INTO ANOTHER CLOSED
LOW FOR NEW ENGLAND. A KEY COMPONENT OF THE SYSTEM`S INTENSIFICATION
WILL BE THE INCORPORATION OF SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING SHORTWAVE ENERGY
AND WHERE THIS NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL PHASE WITH THE CUTOFF
SYSTEM. CURRENTLY THE 00Z GFS PHASES THE SOUTHERN PLAIN WAVE FASTER
THAN THE EC WHICH IS MORE AMPLIFIED. THE EC/S NORTHERN STREAM IS
FARTHER EASTWARD THAN THE GFS...IN WHICH THE EC SEEMS TO PULL A
COASTAL LOW CLOSER TO THE REGION BY THUS/FRI. REGARDLESS APPEARS
THAT A COASTAL LOW WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE REGION LATE IN THE
WORK WEEK. FELT ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE WAS BEST FOR THE WORK WEEK.

DETAILS...

* SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

STRONG CUTOFF LOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE NORTHEAST DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTER CONUS WILL BUILD
PUSHING THE BULK OF THE ENERGY OFFSHORE SAT NIGHT BEFORE THE LOW
MIGRATES BACK TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND BY SUNDAY. STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE NORTH INCREASING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ON SUNDAY. TEMPS MAY REACH 60F AS COLD POOL IS STILL
OFFSHORE.

* MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL RETROGRADE INCREASING THE CHANCES OF PRECIP
AS 2 POTENT SHORTWAVES MORE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM THE NORTH. COLD
POOL ALOFT SEEMS TO SIT OVER THE REGION AS WELL. CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
WILL BE HIGHER THAN FOR THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND AS LAPSE RATES WILL BE
STEEPER AND SOME HINTS OF INSTABILITY. INCREASED POPS ESP ALONG THE
MASS COASTLINE WHERE FORCING COULD OCCUR IF SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS.
TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER ON MONDAY THANKS
TO THE STRONG COLD POOL OVER THE REGION.


* WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...LOW CONFIDENCE.

STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. EVERYTHING
IS DEPENDENT ON HOW THE CUT-OFF LOW IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND
DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM WAVES BEHAVES. CURRENTLY BELIEVE WED IS A
TRANSITION DAY WITH MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION BUT
KEEPING TEMPS BELOW NORMAL. WATCHING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL
LOW ON THURSDAY/FRIDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND EC HAVE SHOWN THE COASTAL
LOW THIS TIME AROUND...SO CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT IT WILL
OCCUR. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE ENSEMBLES. THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY
FARTHER OFFSHORE AND FASTER COMPARED TO THE EC...REGARDLESS WET
WEATHER AND COOL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY LOWER
TO MVFR IN LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WEST
WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KNOTS DURING THE DAY.

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. MORE SPOTTY MVFR IN
SHOWERS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCT SHOWERS. SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST COAST EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

TODAY...HIGH OVERALL CONFIDENCE.

1000 AM UPDATE...WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST AT OR ABOVE 25KTS ACROSS
SOME OF THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. EXPECT THESE GUSTS TO CONTINUE
UNTIL AROUND NOON...SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL THAT TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WEST- NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 20 KT.
SEAS LINGER AROUND 5 FEET ON THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST OUTER
WATERS. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BRIEF PERIOD WHERE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NOT MET. THOUGHT IT BEST TO KEEP SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES GOING CONSISTENTLY ACROSS THE OUTER COASTAL
WATERS...RATHER THAN TAKING THEM DOWN...ONLY TO HAVE TO HOIST THEM
AGAIN LATER.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THOUGH TUESDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST. HIT OR MISS SHOWERS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY. WIND AND
SEAS TO REMAINS BELOW SCA ON SUNDAY. POTENT COLD POOL WILL FILTER
IN FROM THE NORTH CREATING STRONG CAA AN INCREASE WINDS/SEAS FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SCA MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE CONNECTICUT RIVER NEAR MIDDLE HADDAM IS EXPECTED TO GO ABOVE
ITS FLOOD STAGE ONE LAST TIME WITH THE HIGH TIDE THIS MORNING.
FURTHER HIGH TIDE CRESTS SHOULD THEN REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE
HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     CTZ002>004.
MA...NONE.
RI...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     RIZ001-003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ231>234-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...BELK/DUNTEN/NMB
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN/NMB
HYDROLOGY...STAFF




000
FXUS61 KBOX 241412
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1012 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH
SPOTTY SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES. UNSETTLED WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS WELL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1000 AM UPDATE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE MOSTLY PULLED AWAY FROM
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT STILL A CHANCE THAT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
WOULD BRIEFLY PASS THRU THE MA NORTH SHORE BEFORE NOON. ALSO
CONTINUING TO MONITOR THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WITH A VERY LOW
CHANCE THAT SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MAKE IT INTO EXTREME
WESTERN FRANKLIN/HAMPSHIRE COUNTIES.

OTHERWISE MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY
WITH UPPER LOW IN OUR VICINITY. WITH SOME BREAKS OF SUN TEMPS
STILL EXPECTED TO CLIMB MAINLY INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S...EXCEPT LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF
CENTRAL/WESTERN MA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WE WILL HAVE ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL
CLOUDS WITH SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE
SIMILAR TO THOSE WE SAW YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
UPPER LOW SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...BUT THE COLD
POOL AND CLOUD MOISTURE LINGERS NEAR NEW ENGLAND. SO WE MAY NOT
CLEAR COMPLETELY...BUT PROBABLY FEWER CLOUDS THAN TONIGHT FOR A
TIME. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY MORNING SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THIS
MORNING. ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH FOR TONIGHT...AS CLEARER SKIES
COULD LEAD TO MORE FREEZING TEMPERATURES.

CLOUDS RETURN FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW CYCLES BACK
TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT WEEK
* SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND INTO MID-NEXT WEEK
* LOW CONFIDENCE ON COASTAL SYSTEM THURS/FRIDAY.

OVERVIEW...

DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER THE REGION BEGINS TO GRADUALLY PIVOT EAST
OFFSHORE NOVA SCOTIA ON SAT BUT THEN BECOMES NOTABLY ELONGATED BY
SUN AS ADDITIONAL ENERGY DROPS SOUTH DOWN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THE
00Z GEM IS THE WEAKEST SOLUTION WHILE THE 00Z GFS/00Z NAM/00Z UKMET
AND 00Z ECMWF ARE ALL BETTER CLUSTERED WITH DEPTH AND TIMING THROUGH
SUNDAY.

BY NEXT WEEK APPEARS UNSETTLED WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
CONTINUE AS BLOCKING PATTERN PERSIST...SUPPORTED BY -NAO/-AO/+PNA.
UPPER LEVEL LOW AND CONTINUED COLD POOL WILL KEEP ON SPINNING OVER
THE REGION MONDAY AND BEGIN TO EXIT LATE TUESDAY. STILL LOTS OF
QUESTIONS ABOUT THE MIGRATION OF THE DESERT CUTOFF LOW AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND ITS POTENTIAL WRAP UP INTO ANOTHER CLOSED
LOW FOR NEW ENGLAND. A KEY COMPONENT OF THE SYSTEM`S INTENSIFICATION
WILL BE THE INCORPORATION OF SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING SHORTWAVE ENERGY
AND WHERE THIS NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL PHASE WITH THE CUTOFF
SYSTEM. CURRENTLY THE 00Z GFS PHASES THE SOUTHERN PLAIN WAVE FASTER
THAN THE EC WHICH IS MORE AMPLIFIED. THE EC/S NORTHERN STREAM IS
FARTHER EASTWARD THAN THE GFS...IN WHICH THE EC SEEMS TO PULL A
COASTAL LOW CLOSER TO THE REGION BY THUS/FRI. REGARDLESS APPEARS
THAT A COASTAL LOW WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE REGION LATE IN THE
WORK WEEK. FELT ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE WAS BEST FOR THE WORK WEEK.

DETAILS...

* SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

STRONG CUTOFF LOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE NORTHEAST DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTER CONUS WILL BUILD
PUSHING THE BULK OF THE ENERGY OFFSHORE SAT NIGHT BEFORE THE LOW
MIGRATES BACK TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND BY SUNDAY. STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE NORTH INCREASING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ON SUNDAY. TEMPS MAY REACH 60F AS COLD POOL IS STILL
OFFSHORE.

* MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL RETROGRADE INCREASING THE CHANCES OF PRECIP
AS 2 POTENT SHORTWAVES MORE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM THE NORTH. COLD
POOL ALOFT SEEMS TO SIT OVER THE REGION AS WELL. CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
WILL BE HIGHER THAN FOR THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND AS LAPSE RATES WILL BE
STEEPER AND SOME HINTS OF INSTABILITY. INCREASED POPS ESP ALONG THE
MASS COASTLINE WHERE FORCING COULD OCCUR IF SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS.
TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER ON MONDAY THANKS
TO THE STRONG COLD POOL OVER THE REGION.


* WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...LOW CONFIDENCE.

STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. EVERYTHING
IS DEPENDENT ON HOW THE CUT-OFF LOW IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND
DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM WAVES BEHAVES. CURRENTLY BELIEVE WED IS A
TRANSITION DAY WITH MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION BUT
KEEPING TEMPS BELOW NORMAL. WATCHING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL
LOW ON THURSDAY/FRIDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND EC HAVE SHOWN THE COASTAL
LOW THIS TIME AROUND...SO CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT IT WILL
OCCUR. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE ENSEMBLES. THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY
FARTHER OFFSHORE AND FASTER COMPARED TO THE EC...REGARDLESS WET
WEATHER AND COOL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY LOWER
TO MVFR IN LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WEST
WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KNOTS DURING THE DAY.

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. MORE SPOTTY MVFR IN
SHOWERS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCT SHOWERS. SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST COAST EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

TODAY...HIGH OVERALL CONFIDENCE.

1000 AM UPDATE...WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST AT OR ABOVE 25KTS ACROSS
SOME OF THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. EXPECT THESE GUSTS TO CONTINUE
UNTIL AROUND NOON...SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL THAT TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WEST- NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 20 KT.
SEAS LINGER AROUND 5 FEET ON THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST OUTER
WATERS. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BRIEF PERIOD WHERE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NOT MET. THOUGHT IT BEST TO KEEP SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES GOING CONSISTENTLY ACROSS THE OUTER COASTAL
WATERS...RATHER THAN TAKING THEM DOWN...ONLY TO HAVE TO HOIST THEM
AGAIN LATER.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THOUGH TUESDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST. HIT OR MISS SHOWERS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY. WIND AND
SEAS TO REMAINS BELOW SCA ON SUNDAY. POTENT COLD POOL WILL FILTER
IN FROM THE NORTH CREATING STRONG CAA AN INCREASE WINDS/SEAS FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SCA MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE CONNECTICUT RIVER NEAR MIDDLE HADDAM IS EXPECTED TO GO ABOVE
ITS FLOOD STAGE ONE LAST TIME WITH THE HIGH TIDE THIS MORNING.
FURTHER HIGH TIDE CRESTS SHOULD THEN REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE
HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     CTZ002>004.
MA...NONE.
RI...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     RIZ001-003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ231>234-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...BELK/DUNTEN/NMB
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN/NMB
HYDROLOGY...STAFF




000
FXUS61 KOKX 241346
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
946 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY TO THE EAST. MEANWHILE...LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PASS BY TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW
WILL DEEPEN OVER THE ATLANTIC DURING THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLE...THE AREA WILL
REMAIN DRY TODAY AS AN UPPER AND SURFACE LOW REMAIN ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY TO THE
WEST WITH RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT. A CYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST TO WEST WIND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO
THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY A COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER WITH
LESS CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS CONTINUE TO MEANDER ACROSS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND SLOWLY FILL AS HIGHER PRESSURE
BUILDS TO THE WEST AND HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE. WITH A
COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE...SLIGHTLY LESS MIXING AND LESS CLOUD
COVER...TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE MORE LIKELY TO FALL TO FREEZING
OR BELOW ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
METROPOLITAN NEW YORK. SO A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION...SOME RECORD
LOWS WILL MAY BE SET...SEE CLIMATE SECTION. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY...AND THE AIRMASS WILL MODIFY
WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND LESS WIND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE LARGE UPR LOW SPINNING OVER
THE MARITIMES AND NERN CONUS. WITHIN THIS FLOW...A STRONG SHRTWV IS
PROGGED TO DROP THRU THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ERN ZONES...ON SUN. THIS
COULD BRING SOME ISOLD SHWRS. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING STRONGER
UPR ENERGY INTO THE REGION MON. THE ECMWF HOWEVER BRINGS THE MAIN
UPR LOW CENTER DOWN THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND AS A RESULT PROVIDES
BETTER DYNAMICS. FOR NOW KEPT POPS CAPPED AT ISOLD. IN
ADDITION...THE DEEPER ECMWF SOLN COULD RESULT IN SOME SNOW MIXING IN
MON NGT DUE TO THE MUCH COOLER COLUMN. RIDGING BUILDS IN TUE AND
WED...PRODUCING A WARMUP PARTICULARLY WRN ZONES. A SLOW MOVING
DEVELOPING LOW WILL BE THE NEXT FOCUS FOR PCPN TOWARDS THE END OF
NEXT WEEK. LEFT THU DRY FOR NOW AS THESE SYS TEND TO BE A BIT SLOWER
THAN PROGGED THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS
WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS AND A GUSTY NW FLOW.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BACK 20 TO 40 DEGREES THIS AFT
WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SFC TROF.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BACK 20 TO 40 DEGREES THIS AFT
WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SFC TROF.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BACK 20 TO 40 DEGREES THIS AFT
WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SFC TROF.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BACK 20 TO 40 DEGREES THIS AFT
WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SFC TROF.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SAT THROUGH TUE...
.FRI NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS FRI EVENING.
.MON-TUE...MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH LOW PRESSURE REMAINING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST
WATERS AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST...A PERSISTENT GUSTY
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES INTO TONIGHT. WIND GUSTS TODAY AND INTO
TONIGHT TO LIKELY REACH 25 TO 30 KT AND THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE WATERS
AND THE LOW TO THE NORTHEAST WEAKENS. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. BECAUSE OF THE FREQUENT GUSTY
WIND UP TO 30 KT AN ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED ON ALL THE FORECAST
WATERS THROUGH 2 AM EDT SATURDAY AND ON THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH
600 AM SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ON THE OCEAN MAY CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY MORNING AND THE ADVISORY MA NEED TO BE EXTENDED.

WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS SUN AND MON. WINDS MAY APPROACH SCA LVLS
MON NGT AND TUE AS LOW PRES DEEPENS OVER THE ATLC...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE ERN OCEAN. WINDS AND SEAS THEN PROGGED TO FALL BLW SCA LVLS WED
AND THU.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL FALL BELOW 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON AND
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH ARE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...ALTHOUGH LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH OF
RAINFALL WILL HAVE FALLEN OVER THE PREVIOUS 3 DAYS...SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL MONDAY IS HELPING KEEP FORECAST 1 AND 10 HOUR FUEL
MOISTURE LEVELS HIGH ENOUGH TO HAMPER ELEVATED FIRE GROWTH
POTENTIAL. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS AND FORECAST LOWS FOR SATURDAY APRIL 25

NEWARK NJ...34/1936...36
BRIDGEPORT CT 32/1956...34
CENTRAL PARK NY 29/1919...37
LAGUARDIA NY 36/1971...39
KENNEDY NY *37/1971...37
ISLIP NY 36/2012...31

*AND PREVIOUS YEARS

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     CTZ005>012.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     NYZ067>070-078>081.
NJ...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     NJZ002-004-103>105-107.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/MET
NEAR TERM...JMC/MET/PW
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...JMC/MET/PW
FIRE WEATHER...PW
HYDROLOGY...JMC/MET
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KBOX 241100
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
700 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH
SPOTTY SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES. UNSETTLED WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS WELL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

700 AM UPDATE...
SCT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO STREAM DOWN FROM NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AS SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE REGION. ANTICIPATE THE
TRAJECTORY OF THE NORTH TO SOUTH SHOWERS TO ROTATE TO A MORE NW TO
SE...WHILE MOVING OFFSHORE. WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ON THE
EASTERN HALF OF MA...TEMPS WILL WARM INTO 40S OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ANY PRECIP TO BE OF THE LIQUID VARIETY
RATHER THAN SNOW.

ALSO WATCHING THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THAT ARE MOVING ACROSS
UPSTATE NY. HAVE A LOW CONFIDENCE IF THEY WILL MAKE IT OVER THE
BERKSHIRES THIS MORNING.

PLAN ON CANCELING FREEZE WARNING HERE AT THE TOP OF THE HOUR. A
FEW SITES ACROSS NORTHERN CT HAVE DROPPED DOWN TO FREEZING BUT
WITH THE SUN COMING UP ANTICIPATE A QUICK WARMUP ABOVE 32F.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WE WILL HAVE ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL CLOUDS WITH SPOTTY LIGHT
SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THOSE WE SAW
YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
UPPER LOW SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...BUT THE COLD
POOL AND CLOUD MOISTURE LINGERS NEAR NEW ENGLAND. SO WE MAY NOT
CLEAR COMPLETELY...BUT PROBABLY FEWER CLOUDS THAN TONIGHT FOR A
TIME. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY MORNING SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THIS
MORNING. ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH FOR TONIGHT...AS CLEARER SKIES
COULD LEAD TO MORE FREEZING TEMPERATURES.

CLOUDS RETURN FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW CYCLES BACK
TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT WEEK
* SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND INTO MID-NEXT WEEK
* LOW CONFIDENCE ON COASTAL SYSTEM THURS/FRIDAY.

OVERVIEW...

DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER THE REGION BEGINS TO GRADUALLY PIVOT EAST
OFFSHORE NOVA SCOTIA ON SAT BUT THEN BECOMES NOTABLY ELONGATED BY
SUN AS ADDITIONAL ENERGY DROPS SOUTH DOWN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THE
00Z GEM IS THE WEAKEST SOLUTION WHILE THE 00Z GFS/00Z NAM/00Z UKMET
AND 00Z ECMWF ARE ALL BETTER CLUSTERED WITH DEPTH AND TIMING THROUGH
SUNDAY.

BY NEXT WEEK APPEARS UNSETTLED WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
CONTINUE AS BLOCKING PATTERN PERSIST...SUPPORTED BY -NAO/-AO/+PNA.
UPPER LEVEL LOW AND CONTINUED COLD POOL WILL KEEP ON SPINNING OVER
THE REGION MONDAY AND BEGIN TO EXIT LATE TUESDAY. STILL LOTS OF
QUESTIONS ABOUT THE MIGRATION OF THE DESERT CUTOFF LOW AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND ITS POTENTIAL WRAP UP INTO ANOTHER CLOSED
LOW FOR NEW ENGLAND. A KEY COMPONENT OF THE SYSTEM`S INTENSIFICATION
WILL BE THE INCORPORATION OF SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING SHORTWAVE ENERGY
AND WHERE THIS NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL PHASE WITH THE CUTOFF
SYSTEM. CURRENTLY THE 00Z GFS PHASES THE SOUTHERN PLAIN WAVE FASTER
THAN THE EC WHICH IS MORE AMPLIFIED. THE EC/S NORTHERN STREAM IS
FARTHER EASTWARD THAN THE GFS...IN WHICH THE EC SEEMS TO PULL A
COASTAL LOW CLOSER TO THE REGION BY THUS/FRI. REGARDLESS APPEARS
THAT A COASTAL LOW WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE REGION LATE IN THE
WORK WEEK. FELT ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE WAS BEST FOR THE WORK WEEK.

DETAILS...

* SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

STRONG CUTOFF LOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE NORTHEAST DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTER CONUS WILL BUILD
PUSHING THE BULK OF THE ENERGY OFFSHORE SAT NIGHT BEFORE THE LOW
MIGRATES BACK TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND BY SUNDAY. STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE NORTH INCREASING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ON SUNDAY. TEMPS MAY REACH 60F AS COLD POOL IS STILL
OFFSHORE.

* MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL RETROGRADE INCREASING THE CHANCES OF PRECIP
AS 2 POTENT SHORTWAVES MORE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM THE NORTH. COLD
POOL ALOFT SEEMS TO SIT OVER THE REGION AS WELL. CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
WILL BE HIGHER THAN FOR THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND AS LAPSE RATES WILL BE
STEEPER AND SOME HINTS OF INSTABILITY. INCREASED POPS ESP ALONG THE
MASS COASTLINE WHERE FORCING COULD OCCUR IF SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS.
TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER ON MONDAY THANKS
TO THE STRONG COLD POOL OVER THE REGION.


* WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...LOW CONFIDENCE.

STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. EVERYTHING
IS DEPENDENT ON HOW THE CUT-OFF LOW IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND
DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM WAVES BEHAVES. CURRENTLY BELIEVE WED IS A
TRANSITION DAY WITH MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION BUT
KEEPING TEMPS BELOW NORMAL. WATCHING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL
LOW ON THURSDAY/FRIDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND EC HAVE SHOWN THE COASTAL
LOW THIS TIME AROUND...SO CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT IT WILL
OCCUR. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE ENSEMBLES. THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY
FARTHER OFFSHORE AND FASTER COMPARED TO THE EC...REGARDLESS WET
WEATHER AND COOL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY LOWER
TO MVFR IN LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WEST
WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KNOTS DURING THE DAY.

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. MORE SPOTTY MVFR IN
SHOWERS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCT SHOWERS. SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST COAST EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

TODAY...HIGH OVERALL CONFIDENCE.

700 AM UPDATE...WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST AT OR ABOVE 25KTS ACROSS
THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. EXPECT THESE GUSTY TO CONTINUE OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THEREFORE HAVE HOISTED A SCA TIL NOON. EXPECT
THE DAY SHIFT TO DROP IT EARLY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WEST- NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 20 KT.
SEAS LINGER AROUND 5 FEET ON THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST OUTER
WATERS. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BRIEF PERIOD WHERE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NOT MET. THOUGHT IT BEST TO KEEP SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES GOING CONSISTENTLY ACROSS THE OUTER COASTAL
WATERS...RATHER THAN TAKING THEM DOWN...ONLY TO HAVE TO HOIST THEM
AGAIN LATER.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THOUGH TUESDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST. HIT OR MISS SHOWERS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY. WIND AND
SEAS TO REMAINS BELOW SCA ON SUNDAY. POTENT COLD POOL WILL FILTER
IN FROM THE NORTH CREATING STRONG CAA AN INCREASE WINDS/SEAS FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SCA MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE CONNECTICUT RIVER NEAR MIDDLE HADDAM IS EXPECTED TO GO ABOVE
ITS FLOOD STAGE ONE LAST TIME WITH THE HIGH TIDE THIS MORNING.
FURTHER HIGH TIDE CRESTS SHOULD THEN REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE
HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     CTZ002>004.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...NONE.
RI...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     RIZ001-003.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR RIZ001-003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ231>235-237-
     251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...BELK/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN
HYDROLOGY...STAFF




000
FXUS61 KBOX 241100
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
700 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH
SPOTTY SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES. UNSETTLED WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS WELL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

700 AM UPDATE...
SCT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO STREAM DOWN FROM NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AS SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE REGION. ANTICIPATE THE
TRAJECTORY OF THE NORTH TO SOUTH SHOWERS TO ROTATE TO A MORE NW TO
SE...WHILE MOVING OFFSHORE. WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ON THE
EASTERN HALF OF MA...TEMPS WILL WARM INTO 40S OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ANY PRECIP TO BE OF THE LIQUID VARIETY
RATHER THAN SNOW.

ALSO WATCHING THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THAT ARE MOVING ACROSS
UPSTATE NY. HAVE A LOW CONFIDENCE IF THEY WILL MAKE IT OVER THE
BERKSHIRES THIS MORNING.

PLAN ON CANCELING FREEZE WARNING HERE AT THE TOP OF THE HOUR. A
FEW SITES ACROSS NORTHERN CT HAVE DROPPED DOWN TO FREEZING BUT
WITH THE SUN COMING UP ANTICIPATE A QUICK WARMUP ABOVE 32F.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WE WILL HAVE ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL CLOUDS WITH SPOTTY LIGHT
SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THOSE WE SAW
YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
UPPER LOW SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...BUT THE COLD
POOL AND CLOUD MOISTURE LINGERS NEAR NEW ENGLAND. SO WE MAY NOT
CLEAR COMPLETELY...BUT PROBABLY FEWER CLOUDS THAN TONIGHT FOR A
TIME. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY MORNING SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THIS
MORNING. ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH FOR TONIGHT...AS CLEARER SKIES
COULD LEAD TO MORE FREEZING TEMPERATURES.

CLOUDS RETURN FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW CYCLES BACK
TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT WEEK
* SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND INTO MID-NEXT WEEK
* LOW CONFIDENCE ON COASTAL SYSTEM THURS/FRIDAY.

OVERVIEW...

DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER THE REGION BEGINS TO GRADUALLY PIVOT EAST
OFFSHORE NOVA SCOTIA ON SAT BUT THEN BECOMES NOTABLY ELONGATED BY
SUN AS ADDITIONAL ENERGY DROPS SOUTH DOWN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THE
00Z GEM IS THE WEAKEST SOLUTION WHILE THE 00Z GFS/00Z NAM/00Z UKMET
AND 00Z ECMWF ARE ALL BETTER CLUSTERED WITH DEPTH AND TIMING THROUGH
SUNDAY.

BY NEXT WEEK APPEARS UNSETTLED WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
CONTINUE AS BLOCKING PATTERN PERSIST...SUPPORTED BY -NAO/-AO/+PNA.
UPPER LEVEL LOW AND CONTINUED COLD POOL WILL KEEP ON SPINNING OVER
THE REGION MONDAY AND BEGIN TO EXIT LATE TUESDAY. STILL LOTS OF
QUESTIONS ABOUT THE MIGRATION OF THE DESERT CUTOFF LOW AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND ITS POTENTIAL WRAP UP INTO ANOTHER CLOSED
LOW FOR NEW ENGLAND. A KEY COMPONENT OF THE SYSTEM`S INTENSIFICATION
WILL BE THE INCORPORATION OF SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING SHORTWAVE ENERGY
AND WHERE THIS NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL PHASE WITH THE CUTOFF
SYSTEM. CURRENTLY THE 00Z GFS PHASES THE SOUTHERN PLAIN WAVE FASTER
THAN THE EC WHICH IS MORE AMPLIFIED. THE EC/S NORTHERN STREAM IS
FARTHER EASTWARD THAN THE GFS...IN WHICH THE EC SEEMS TO PULL A
COASTAL LOW CLOSER TO THE REGION BY THUS/FRI. REGARDLESS APPEARS
THAT A COASTAL LOW WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE REGION LATE IN THE
WORK WEEK. FELT ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE WAS BEST FOR THE WORK WEEK.

DETAILS...

* SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

STRONG CUTOFF LOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE NORTHEAST DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTER CONUS WILL BUILD
PUSHING THE BULK OF THE ENERGY OFFSHORE SAT NIGHT BEFORE THE LOW
MIGRATES BACK TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND BY SUNDAY. STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE NORTH INCREASING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ON SUNDAY. TEMPS MAY REACH 60F AS COLD POOL IS STILL
OFFSHORE.

* MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL RETROGRADE INCREASING THE CHANCES OF PRECIP
AS 2 POTENT SHORTWAVES MORE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM THE NORTH. COLD
POOL ALOFT SEEMS TO SIT OVER THE REGION AS WELL. CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
WILL BE HIGHER THAN FOR THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND AS LAPSE RATES WILL BE
STEEPER AND SOME HINTS OF INSTABILITY. INCREASED POPS ESP ALONG THE
MASS COASTLINE WHERE FORCING COULD OCCUR IF SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS.
TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER ON MONDAY THANKS
TO THE STRONG COLD POOL OVER THE REGION.


* WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...LOW CONFIDENCE.

STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. EVERYTHING
IS DEPENDENT ON HOW THE CUT-OFF LOW IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND
DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM WAVES BEHAVES. CURRENTLY BELIEVE WED IS A
TRANSITION DAY WITH MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION BUT
KEEPING TEMPS BELOW NORMAL. WATCHING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL
LOW ON THURSDAY/FRIDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND EC HAVE SHOWN THE COASTAL
LOW THIS TIME AROUND...SO CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT IT WILL
OCCUR. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE ENSEMBLES. THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY
FARTHER OFFSHORE AND FASTER COMPARED TO THE EC...REGARDLESS WET
WEATHER AND COOL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY LOWER
TO MVFR IN LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WEST
WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KNOTS DURING THE DAY.

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. MORE SPOTTY MVFR IN
SHOWERS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCT SHOWERS. SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST COAST EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

TODAY...HIGH OVERALL CONFIDENCE.

700 AM UPDATE...WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST AT OR ABOVE 25KTS ACROSS
THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. EXPECT THESE GUSTY TO CONTINUE OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THEREFORE HAVE HOISTED A SCA TIL NOON. EXPECT
THE DAY SHIFT TO DROP IT EARLY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WEST- NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 20 KT.
SEAS LINGER AROUND 5 FEET ON THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST OUTER
WATERS. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BRIEF PERIOD WHERE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NOT MET. THOUGHT IT BEST TO KEEP SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES GOING CONSISTENTLY ACROSS THE OUTER COASTAL
WATERS...RATHER THAN TAKING THEM DOWN...ONLY TO HAVE TO HOIST THEM
AGAIN LATER.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THOUGH TUESDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST. HIT OR MISS SHOWERS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY. WIND AND
SEAS TO REMAINS BELOW SCA ON SUNDAY. POTENT COLD POOL WILL FILTER
IN FROM THE NORTH CREATING STRONG CAA AN INCREASE WINDS/SEAS FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SCA MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE CONNECTICUT RIVER NEAR MIDDLE HADDAM IS EXPECTED TO GO ABOVE
ITS FLOOD STAGE ONE LAST TIME WITH THE HIGH TIDE THIS MORNING.
FURTHER HIGH TIDE CRESTS SHOULD THEN REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE
HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     CTZ002>004.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...NONE.
RI...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     RIZ001-003.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR RIZ001-003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ231>235-237-
     251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...BELK/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN
HYDROLOGY...STAFF



000
FXUS61 KALY 241034
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
634 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE STORM IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST...AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
CIRCULATE AROUND IT ACROSS THE REGION. EACH DISTURBANCE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASED CLOUDS...SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND
POSSIBLE SNOW SHOWERS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WINDS WILL BE BRISK
TO END THE WEEK...AND START THE NEW WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMALS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 630 AM EDT...SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE MAJORITY
OF THE REGION...ALTHOUGH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. REGIONAL RADARS STILL
SUGGEST SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ONGOING ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY...AND EASTERN CATSKILLS.

FOR TODAY...IT WILL STILL BE BLUSTERY...BUT NOT QUITE AS COLD AS
THURSDAY...AND WITH LESS OVERALL SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...AS HEIGHTS
RISE A BIT FROM THE VERY LOW LEVELS OF YESTERDAY WHEN A STRONG
VORT MAX PASSED BY. A FEW BREAKS OF SUN WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
VALLEYS...MAINLY THIS MORNING...BEFORE CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE
REACHED AND CLOUDS TEND TO FILL BACK IN. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS OF SNOW ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...AND SNOW/GRAUPEL AND
PERHAPS RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE IN VALLEY AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF
ALBANY DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS.

TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT LEAST A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN
THURSDAY...BUT STILL WELL BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS...WITH MAX TEMPS
OF 45-50 EXPECTED IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER 30S TO MID 40S FOR MOST
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE
CATSKILLS/ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS MAY ONLY REACH THE
MID 30S.

WINDS WILL REMAIN BRISK FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST...WITH SOME
GUSTS REACHING 30-35 MPH LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...ESP WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY...THE GREATER CAPITAL REGION...AND INTO THE BERKSHIRES.

TONIGHT...A COMPACT SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER WESTERN
QUEBEC...IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE SOUTHEASTWARD BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
SOME WEAK SYNOPTIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY ALLOW FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO LINGER INTO THIS
EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THEN...INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE AND RISING HEIGHTS SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE AREAL COVERAGE
OF ANY SNOW SHOWERS TO DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT...ALONG WITH
CLEARING SKIES. WINDS SHOULD PERSIST MUCH OF THE NIGHT...BUT COULD
TREND DOWNWARD TOWARD DAYBREAK...ALLOWING TEMPS TO FALL TO OR
BELOW FREEZING ACROSS A LARGER PORTION OF THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT...INCLUDING MANY VALLEY AREAS. HAVE SIDED WITH THE COOLER
GUIDANCE IN MOST AREAS...WITH WIDESPREAD 20S EXPECTED...EXCEPT
CLOSER TO 30 IN VALLEY AREAS. SHOULD WINDS DECREASE EVEN
QUICKER THAN EXPECTED...MIN TEMPS COULD BE COLDER.

SATURDAY...IT APPEARS THAT OUR REGION WILL LIE BETWEEN THE
SPRAWLING UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS EASTERN CANADA/CANADIAN
MARITIMES...AND A POTENT SHORTWAVE TRACKING WELL SOUTH OF THE
REGION INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. ENHANCED UPPER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS SHOULD PROMOTE SUBSIDENCE...AND
MUCH LESS IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. TEMPS
SHOULD RESPOND...CLIMBING INTO THE 55-60 RANGE FOR VALLEYS...AND
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS. EVEN WARMER MAX
TEMPS COULD OCCUR...AS MIXING DEPTHS COULD BECOME QUITE DEEP BY
LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY AT TIMES THROUGH THE
DAY...PERHAPS REACHING AROUND 30 MPH AT TIMES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
LARGE 500HPA CUTOFF LOW ROTATES ABOUT BUT REMAINS IN THE
MARITIMES...GULF OF MAINE AND OVER THE NORTHEAST USA THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...BEFORE FINALLY LIFTING SLOWLY OUT TO SEA TUESDAY.
THE ECMWF AND GFS FEATURE THIS LIFTING OUT...WHILE THE GEM KEEPS
THE CUT OFF CENTER AND SFC LOW WELL WEST OVER NEW ENG. WILL
CONSIDER THE GEM THE OUTLIER AT THIS TIME GIVEN PVS RUNS AND
ENSEMBLES.

THE 5000HPA SHORT WV PARADE AROUND 500HPA CUTOFF WILL
PERSIST...BOTH THOSE ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN SYSTEM AND OTHERS
DROPPING INTO THE SYSTEM. AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO
THE RGN FM THE NW...INTO SUNDAY. AFTERWARD SFC LOW MOVING E TO OUR
SOUTH WILL DEEPEN INTO AN INTENSE OCEANIC STORM WELL OFFSHORE...BUT
CLOSE ENOUGH THAT COMBINED W/LARGE SFC HIGH OVER GRTLKS
REESTABLISHES A BRISK WIND GRADIENT OVER FCA.

INCRG CLOUDS AND -SHRA/SN WILL BE TIED TO PASSING SHORT WVS WITH
GREATEST THREAT LATE SUN INTO MON. THE BEGINNING AND END OF THE
PERIOD OFFER THE BEST CHC FOR PS SKIES...AND SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPS. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S WITH LOW 60S SOUTH. LOWS
IN THE 30S AND LOW 40S, TUES TEMPS WILL KICK UP A NOTCH...WITH
MOST AREAS REACHING THE 60S EXCEPT THE HIR TRRN.

WILL LARGELY POPULATE WITH GFSMOS...AND BLEND INTO CURRENT
FCST...UNLESS ECMWF SIGNIFICANTLY DEPARTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HPC SEEMS HAVE LARGELY GONE WITH AN ECMWF (LIGHT) SOLUTION THIS
AM. IN THIS SCENARIO RIDGING AT 500HPA BUILDS EAST...WITH BULK OF
SHORT WV ENERGY PASSING TO OUR SOUTH IN A SE STATES CUT OFF...AND
ANOTHER 500HPA CUTOFF ARRIVING TWRD END OF PERIOD FM OTTAWA VLY.
THE GFS IS ONLY SIMILAR WITH THIS TIL THU...THEN MUCH MORE GREATLY
INTENSIFIES THE N BRANCH CUTOFF OVER NE USA...WITH JANUARY LIKE
BOMB ON THE SEABOARD...AS 520 DM CUT OFF PROPAGATES ACROSS THE
RGN. TO PUT IT MILDLY THIS LOOKS A BIT EXTREME AND OVERDONE.

IN THE HPC/ECMWF SOLUTION LARGE SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO NE
WED...COASTAL STORM PASSES JUST S OF RGN GLANCING SE AREAS WITH
CLOUDS AND CHC POPS THU AND SFC HIGH REASSERTS ITSELF FRI. THE
ECMWF HAS A DEEPER COASTAL STORM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH TWRD THE END
OF THE PERIOD...BUT STRONGER CAA IN ITS WAKE.

FOR NOW WILL POPULATE WITH HPC AND RETAIN CONTINUITY WITH CURRENT
FCST. TEMPS WILL RETURN TO NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF
PERIOD ENDING 12Z/SAT. PLENTY OF CLOUDS...MAINLY IN VFR
RANGE...WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AND INTO FRIDAY
EVENING...ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. SCATTERED UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KPSF...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...ANY
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MUCH MORE ISOLATED THAN THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...ANY PASSING SNOW SHOWERS COULD EASILY DROP VSBYS INTO
THE MVFR/IFR RANGE.

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 12-15 KTS THIS
MORNING...WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 KTS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL THEN
DECREASE SLIGHTLY SEVERAL HOURS AFTER SUNSET FRIDAY AT 8-12 KT.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...WIND GUSTS UP OF 25-35 MPH LIKELY TODAY...

...RH VALUES FALL TO 25-35 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON IN VALLEY
AREAS...

WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMTS OF GREATER THAN ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH
OCCURRED BETWEEN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF THIS WEEK.

OUR REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
LOW ANCHORED ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL PERSIST TODAY...AND RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 25-35
PERCENT RANGE IN VALLEYS...AND 35-50 PERCENT ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON.

THE RH SHOULD RECOVER TO 75-90 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN DROP INTO
THE 25-35 PERCENT RANGE ONCE AGAIN SAT AFTERNOON. WINDS SAT MAY
STILL OCCASIONALLY GUST UP TO 25-30 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF
MOSTLY SNOW IN THE MOUNTAIN. ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE
LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR HYDROLOGICAL
SERVICE AREA (HSA).

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...KL/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER



000
FXUS61 KALY 241034
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
634 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE STORM IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST...AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
CIRCULATE AROUND IT ACROSS THE REGION. EACH DISTURBANCE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASED CLOUDS...SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND
POSSIBLE SNOW SHOWERS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WINDS WILL BE BRISK
TO END THE WEEK...AND START THE NEW WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMALS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 630 AM EDT...SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE MAJORITY
OF THE REGION...ALTHOUGH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. REGIONAL RADARS STILL
SUGGEST SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ONGOING ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY...AND EASTERN CATSKILLS.

FOR TODAY...IT WILL STILL BE BLUSTERY...BUT NOT QUITE AS COLD AS
THURSDAY...AND WITH LESS OVERALL SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...AS HEIGHTS
RISE A BIT FROM THE VERY LOW LEVELS OF YESTERDAY WHEN A STRONG
VORT MAX PASSED BY. A FEW BREAKS OF SUN WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
VALLEYS...MAINLY THIS MORNING...BEFORE CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE
REACHED AND CLOUDS TEND TO FILL BACK IN. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS OF SNOW ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...AND SNOW/GRAUPEL AND
PERHAPS RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE IN VALLEY AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF
ALBANY DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS.

TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT LEAST A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN
THURSDAY...BUT STILL WELL BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS...WITH MAX TEMPS
OF 45-50 EXPECTED IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER 30S TO MID 40S FOR MOST
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE
CATSKILLS/ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS MAY ONLY REACH THE
MID 30S.

WINDS WILL REMAIN BRISK FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST...WITH SOME
GUSTS REACHING 30-35 MPH LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...ESP WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY...THE GREATER CAPITAL REGION...AND INTO THE BERKSHIRES.

TONIGHT...A COMPACT SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER WESTERN
QUEBEC...IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE SOUTHEASTWARD BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
SOME WEAK SYNOPTIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY ALLOW FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO LINGER INTO THIS
EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THEN...INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE AND RISING HEIGHTS SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE AREAL COVERAGE
OF ANY SNOW SHOWERS TO DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT...ALONG WITH
CLEARING SKIES. WINDS SHOULD PERSIST MUCH OF THE NIGHT...BUT COULD
TREND DOWNWARD TOWARD DAYBREAK...ALLOWING TEMPS TO FALL TO OR
BELOW FREEZING ACROSS A LARGER PORTION OF THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT...INCLUDING MANY VALLEY AREAS. HAVE SIDED WITH THE COOLER
GUIDANCE IN MOST AREAS...WITH WIDESPREAD 20S EXPECTED...EXCEPT
CLOSER TO 30 IN VALLEY AREAS. SHOULD WINDS DECREASE EVEN
QUICKER THAN EXPECTED...MIN TEMPS COULD BE COLDER.

SATURDAY...IT APPEARS THAT OUR REGION WILL LIE BETWEEN THE
SPRAWLING UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS EASTERN CANADA/CANADIAN
MARITIMES...AND A POTENT SHORTWAVE TRACKING WELL SOUTH OF THE
REGION INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. ENHANCED UPPER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS SHOULD PROMOTE SUBSIDENCE...AND
MUCH LESS IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. TEMPS
SHOULD RESPOND...CLIMBING INTO THE 55-60 RANGE FOR VALLEYS...AND
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS. EVEN WARMER MAX
TEMPS COULD OCCUR...AS MIXING DEPTHS COULD BECOME QUITE DEEP BY
LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY AT TIMES THROUGH THE
DAY...PERHAPS REACHING AROUND 30 MPH AT TIMES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
LARGE 500HPA CUTOFF LOW ROTATES ABOUT BUT REMAINS IN THE
MARITIMES...GULF OF MAINE AND OVER THE NORTHEAST USA THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...BEFORE FINALLY LIFTING SLOWLY OUT TO SEA TUESDAY.
THE ECMWF AND GFS FEATURE THIS LIFTING OUT...WHILE THE GEM KEEPS
THE CUT OFF CENTER AND SFC LOW WELL WEST OVER NEW ENG. WILL
CONSIDER THE GEM THE OUTLIER AT THIS TIME GIVEN PVS RUNS AND
ENSEMBLES.

THE 5000HPA SHORT WV PARADE AROUND 500HPA CUTOFF WILL
PERSIST...BOTH THOSE ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN SYSTEM AND OTHERS
DROPPING INTO THE SYSTEM. AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO
THE RGN FM THE NW...INTO SUNDAY. AFTERWARD SFC LOW MOVING E TO OUR
SOUTH WILL DEEPEN INTO AN INTENSE OCEANIC STORM WELL OFFSHORE...BUT
CLOSE ENOUGH THAT COMBINED W/LARGE SFC HIGH OVER GRTLKS
REESTABLISHES A BRISK WIND GRADIENT OVER FCA.

INCRG CLOUDS AND -SHRA/SN WILL BE TIED TO PASSING SHORT WVS WITH
GREATEST THREAT LATE SUN INTO MON. THE BEGINNING AND END OF THE
PERIOD OFFER THE BEST CHC FOR PS SKIES...AND SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPS. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S WITH LOW 60S SOUTH. LOWS
IN THE 30S AND LOW 40S, TUES TEMPS WILL KICK UP A NOTCH...WITH
MOST AREAS REACHING THE 60S EXCEPT THE HIR TRRN.

WILL LARGELY POPULATE WITH GFSMOS...AND BLEND INTO CURRENT
FCST...UNLESS ECMWF SIGNIFICANTLY DEPARTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HPC SEEMS HAVE LARGELY GONE WITH AN ECMWF (LIGHT) SOLUTION THIS
AM. IN THIS SCENARIO RIDGING AT 500HPA BUILDS EAST...WITH BULK OF
SHORT WV ENERGY PASSING TO OUR SOUTH IN A SE STATES CUT OFF...AND
ANOTHER 500HPA CUTOFF ARRIVING TWRD END OF PERIOD FM OTTAWA VLY.
THE GFS IS ONLY SIMILAR WITH THIS TIL THU...THEN MUCH MORE GREATLY
INTENSIFIES THE N BRANCH CUTOFF OVER NE USA...WITH JANUARY LIKE
BOMB ON THE SEABOARD...AS 520 DM CUT OFF PROPAGATES ACRO