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000
FXUS61 KOKX 071147
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
647 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY.
INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST US COAST WILL TRACK
SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. AN ACTIVE WINTER
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS SEVERAL WAVES OF
LOW PRESSURE POSSIBLY IMPACT THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE MAY RETURN AT
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SPLIT FLOW TODAY AS SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH PIVOTS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. VIGOROUS NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE UPPER MID
WEST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THE SFC...OUR AREA WILL BE
SANDWICHED BETWEEN DEEP LOW MOVING OFF THE SE COAST AND ANOTHER
STRONG LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS THE UPPER MID WEST. RIDGE
EXTENDS BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS ACROSS THE AREA.

AFTER MORNING PATCHY FOG...A DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAY IS EXPECTED
AS TEMPS RISE INTO THE 40S...THANKS TO WAA IN SW FLOW...PER MOS
AND FORECAST SOUNDING DATA. SUNSHINE COULD BE FILTERED THROUGH
HIGH CLOUDS LATER IN THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IN GENERAL...EXPECT INTERMITTENT LIGHT SNOW...POSSIBLY MODERATE AT
TIMES...THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT. EXACT
DETAILS AND TIMING REMAIN UNCERTAIN...BUT DO EXPECT UNSETTLED
WEATHER.

DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AS IT TRACKS
NORTHEAST...WITH NEXT VIGOROUS TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION TOWARD THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY TUESDAY.

AS THE INITIAL ATLANTIC SFC LOW DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST
MONDAY...NEXT LOW SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...WITH SECOND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT SOMEWHERE OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY. THIS LOW PULLS AWAY TO THE EAST WITH
NORLUN TROUGH LINGERING W/NWWD OVER THE AREA.

AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...DRY THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT...WITH SNOW APPROACHING LONG ISLAND LATE TONIGHT. ON
MONDAY...NOT SURE HOW FAR WEST THIS SNOW EXTENDS...BUT BEST CHANCE
FOR ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE ACROSS ERN LONG ISLAND...SE CT. THEN
EXPECT LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPMENT LATE MONDAY...MONDAY NIGHT AS UPPER
TROUGH/NEXT SFC LOW APPROACHES...RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT LIFT.

INTERMITTENT SNOW IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AS MENTIONED. A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY.

TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TONIGHT...RANGING FROM THE MID
20S INLAND TO THE MID 30S IN AND AROUND NYC.

WITH CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SNOW MOVING IN MONDAY...TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE
TO RISE MUCH...EXCEPT NW ZONES WHERE DRIER AIR IS MORE LIKELY TO
HOLD.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...NEAR NORMAL TEMPS ARE ANTICIPATED.

AS FOR SNOW AMOUNTS...NAM AND SREF STILL THE WETTER SOLUTIONS WHEN
COMPARED TO GFS AND ECMWF. PER COLLAB WITH WPC AND SURROUNDING
OFFICES...AGREE WITH A LIKELY SCENARIO OF A DUSTING TO COUPLE
INCHES ACROSS NYC METRO AND POINTS WEST AND 2 TO 5 INCHES TOWARDS
EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND SE CT MONDAY. OF COURSE AMOUNTS COULD BE
HIGHER IF NAM/SREF MEAN SCENARIO PANS OUT.

ADDITIONAL ACCUMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...MAINLY
LIGHT AMOUNTS. HOWEVER...ANY SNOW BANDS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS...WHICH IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO PIN POINT WHERE THEY
WOULD SET UP ATTM. GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH POTENTIAL
MODERATE SNOW TUESDAY...WHEREAS MOST OTHER MODEL/ENSEMBLE
SOLUTIONS PRODUCE MUCH LIGHTER QPF/SNOW.

BELIEVE A 2 TO 6 INCH SNOWFALL IS THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IF YOU
COMBINE THE TWO SYSTEMS...WHICH MAKES SENSE SINCE MINIMAL BREAK
IN PRECIP IS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH TIMES OF LIGHT SNOW IS LIKELY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES...AND NORLUN TROUGH LINGERS
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE AREA BEHIND ATLANTIC LOW.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT ANOMALOUS TROUGH IS LIKELY TO REMAIN
OVERHEAD. IN FACT...A SECOND LOW MAY DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE AREA
TUE NIGHT.

CANNOT RULE OUT LIGHT SNOW WEDNESDAY...BUT FOR NOW IT APPEARS BEST
LIFT SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA. UPPER TROF AXIS SHIFTS EAST THURSDAY.
POPS TAPER DOWN TO CHANCE WEDNESDAY AND THEN SLIGHT CHANCE ON
THURSDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS DEEP UPPER LOW SETS UP ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CANADA. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH DRY AS BEST MOISTURE AXIS HAS
SHIFTED OFFSHORE FROM EARLIER WEEK ACTIVITY. ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS INTO
THE AREA SATURDAY. THE 12Z ECMWF HAS 850 HPA TEMPS DROPPING TO
BETWEEN -22C TO -26C.

FORECAST TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE LONG
TERM...WITH INCREASING PROBABILITY OF A SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR AND WELL
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AT THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS OVER THE AREA TODAY. MEANWHILE...LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL TRACK TO THE
NORTHEAST...PASSING SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND ON MONDAY.

VFR THROUGH 06Z OR SO...WITH MVFR THEN DEVELOPING AT ALL TERMINALS
EXCEPT PERHAPS KSWF THROUGH 12Z. KGON MAY SEE LIGHT SNOW DEVELOP
BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z...BUT CHC`S AREN`T HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN
THE TAF ATTM.

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST...ALTHOUGH TIMING OF
WINDS SHIFTING TO THE E/NE THIS AFTN MAY BE 1-2 HOURS OFF.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.MON...MVFR OR LOWER LIKELY EAST/POSSIBLE WEST IN SNOW. NE-N
WINDS G20-30KT WEST AND 30-40KT EAST POSSIBLE.
.MON NIGHT-TUE NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER LIKELY IN SNOW. MIXED
PCPN POSSIBLE AT COAST DURING THE DAY TUE. N-NE WINDS G15-25KT
POSSIBLE MON NIGHT-TUE.
.WED-THU...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN -SN. W-NW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE
WED NIGHT-THU.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRES WEAKENS OVER THE AREA TODAY AS INTENSIFYING LOW PRES
OFF THE SE COAST TRACKS N THEN NE PASSING SE OF LONG ISLAND ON
MONDAY. NE WINDS DEVELOP AND INCREASE THIS EVENING. MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 35 KT GUSTS ARE LIKELY ON AT LEAST PORTIONS OF
THE OCEAN WATERS W OF FIRE ISLAND INLET AND EASTERN LI
SOUND/BAYS...THEREFORE HAVE CONVERTED THE GALE WATCH TO A WARNING
HERE. REST OF HEADLINES REMAIN UNCHANGED.

GALE FORCE WINDS MAY DIMINISH ON ALL BUT THE OCEAN WATERS E OF
MORICHES INLET DURING THE AFTN ON MON...BUT HAVE KEPT THE END TIME
AT 23Z FOR ALL ZONES TO ALLOW FOR SOME WIGGLE ROOM. SCA WINDS MAY
THEN LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE EVE...HOWEVER WINDS SHOULD COME
DOWN FAIRLY QUICKLY AS THE STORM DEPARTS AND THE PRES GRADIENT
RELAXES. SEAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN AOA 5 FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS IMPACT THE
WATERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

SUB-ADVSY WINDS PREVAIL TUE NIGHT INTO WED...BUT THEN INCREASE
AGAIN WED NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY THU WITH SCA POSSIBLE ON ALL
WATERS. GUSTS ON THE OCEAN WATERS MAY EVEN REACH GALE FORCE THU
AFTN AND EVE...BUT SINCE IT APPEARS MARGINAL ATTM WILL REFRAIN
FROM INCLUDING IN THE HWO.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL SOUTHEAST TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY...QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER LOW TUESDAY THAT WILL BE
CLOSER. A TROUGH LINGERS NEARBY TUE NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

DUE TO PROLONGED UNSETTLED PRECIP EVENT...OVERALL QPF SHOULD
AVERAGE FROM A TENTH OF AN INCH TO CLOSE TO A HALF AN INCH...FROM NW
TO SE. MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS LIKELY TO BE
IN THE FORM OF SNOW. NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
POTENTIAL FOR MINOR COASTAL IMPACTS MONDAY INTO MIDWEEK WITH A NEW
MOON ON MONDAY AND A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURES AFFECTING THE REGION.

AN INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN NE/N WINDS INCREASING TO
POTENTIALLY GALE FORCE SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO MONDAY.
BASED ON A TRACK OF INTENSIFYING LOW THAT SHOULD BE SE OF THE
40/70 LAT/LON BENCHMARK AND COLD AIR DAMMING SIGNATURE...WOULD
EXPECT POTENTIAL FOR WINDS TO BE BACKED MORE TO THE N THAN NE.
THIS WOULD FAVOR THE LOWER SURGE GUIDANCE FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT HIGH TIDE CYCLES...WHICH WOULD KEEP IMPACTS MINOR AND
LIKELY LIMITED TO THE MOST VULNERABLE LOCALES. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR.

AS WE HEAD INTO TUESDAYS HIGH TIDE CYCLES...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
WINDS TO VEER MORE TO THE NE AS ADDITIONAL WAVE/S OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACK TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. THE SPRING ASTRONOMICAL TIDES
AND MULTI-TIDAL CYCLE NATURE OF THE EVENT WILL FAVOR ADDITIONAL
MINOR FLOODING...WITH POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD MINOR TO MODERATE
IMPACTS IN THE BACK BAY AREAS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR ANZ335-338-345.
     GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ330-340-350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PW
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...DS/PW
AVIATION...24
MARINE...24
HYDROLOGY...PW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KOKX 071147
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
647 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY.
INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST US COAST WILL TRACK
SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. AN ACTIVE WINTER
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS SEVERAL WAVES OF
LOW PRESSURE POSSIBLY IMPACT THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE MAY RETURN AT
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SPLIT FLOW TODAY AS SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH PIVOTS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. VIGOROUS NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE UPPER MID
WEST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THE SFC...OUR AREA WILL BE
SANDWICHED BETWEEN DEEP LOW MOVING OFF THE SE COAST AND ANOTHER
STRONG LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS THE UPPER MID WEST. RIDGE
EXTENDS BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS ACROSS THE AREA.

AFTER MORNING PATCHY FOG...A DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAY IS EXPECTED
AS TEMPS RISE INTO THE 40S...THANKS TO WAA IN SW FLOW...PER MOS
AND FORECAST SOUNDING DATA. SUNSHINE COULD BE FILTERED THROUGH
HIGH CLOUDS LATER IN THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IN GENERAL...EXPECT INTERMITTENT LIGHT SNOW...POSSIBLY MODERATE AT
TIMES...THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT. EXACT
DETAILS AND TIMING REMAIN UNCERTAIN...BUT DO EXPECT UNSETTLED
WEATHER.

DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AS IT TRACKS
NORTHEAST...WITH NEXT VIGOROUS TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION TOWARD THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY TUESDAY.

AS THE INITIAL ATLANTIC SFC LOW DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST
MONDAY...NEXT LOW SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...WITH SECOND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT SOMEWHERE OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY. THIS LOW PULLS AWAY TO THE EAST WITH
NORLUN TROUGH LINGERING W/NWWD OVER THE AREA.

AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...DRY THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT...WITH SNOW APPROACHING LONG ISLAND LATE TONIGHT. ON
MONDAY...NOT SURE HOW FAR WEST THIS SNOW EXTENDS...BUT BEST CHANCE
FOR ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE ACROSS ERN LONG ISLAND...SE CT. THEN
EXPECT LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPMENT LATE MONDAY...MONDAY NIGHT AS UPPER
TROUGH/NEXT SFC LOW APPROACHES...RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT LIFT.

INTERMITTENT SNOW IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AS MENTIONED. A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY.

TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TONIGHT...RANGING FROM THE MID
20S INLAND TO THE MID 30S IN AND AROUND NYC.

WITH CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SNOW MOVING IN MONDAY...TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE
TO RISE MUCH...EXCEPT NW ZONES WHERE DRIER AIR IS MORE LIKELY TO
HOLD.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...NEAR NORMAL TEMPS ARE ANTICIPATED.

AS FOR SNOW AMOUNTS...NAM AND SREF STILL THE WETTER SOLUTIONS WHEN
COMPARED TO GFS AND ECMWF. PER COLLAB WITH WPC AND SURROUNDING
OFFICES...AGREE WITH A LIKELY SCENARIO OF A DUSTING TO COUPLE
INCHES ACROSS NYC METRO AND POINTS WEST AND 2 TO 5 INCHES TOWARDS
EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND SE CT MONDAY. OF COURSE AMOUNTS COULD BE
HIGHER IF NAM/SREF MEAN SCENARIO PANS OUT.

ADDITIONAL ACCUMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...MAINLY
LIGHT AMOUNTS. HOWEVER...ANY SNOW BANDS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS...WHICH IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO PIN POINT WHERE THEY
WOULD SET UP ATTM. GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH POTENTIAL
MODERATE SNOW TUESDAY...WHEREAS MOST OTHER MODEL/ENSEMBLE
SOLUTIONS PRODUCE MUCH LIGHTER QPF/SNOW.

BELIEVE A 2 TO 6 INCH SNOWFALL IS THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IF YOU
COMBINE THE TWO SYSTEMS...WHICH MAKES SENSE SINCE MINIMAL BREAK
IN PRECIP IS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH TIMES OF LIGHT SNOW IS LIKELY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES...AND NORLUN TROUGH LINGERS
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE AREA BEHIND ATLANTIC LOW.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT ANOMALOUS TROUGH IS LIKELY TO REMAIN
OVERHEAD. IN FACT...A SECOND LOW MAY DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE AREA
TUE NIGHT.

CANNOT RULE OUT LIGHT SNOW WEDNESDAY...BUT FOR NOW IT APPEARS BEST
LIFT SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA. UPPER TROF AXIS SHIFTS EAST THURSDAY.
POPS TAPER DOWN TO CHANCE WEDNESDAY AND THEN SLIGHT CHANCE ON
THURSDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS DEEP UPPER LOW SETS UP ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CANADA. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH DRY AS BEST MOISTURE AXIS HAS
SHIFTED OFFSHORE FROM EARLIER WEEK ACTIVITY. ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS INTO
THE AREA SATURDAY. THE 12Z ECMWF HAS 850 HPA TEMPS DROPPING TO
BETWEEN -22C TO -26C.

FORECAST TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE LONG
TERM...WITH INCREASING PROBABILITY OF A SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR AND WELL
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AT THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS OVER THE AREA TODAY. MEANWHILE...LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL TRACK TO THE
NORTHEAST...PASSING SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND ON MONDAY.

VFR THROUGH 06Z OR SO...WITH MVFR THEN DEVELOPING AT ALL TERMINALS
EXCEPT PERHAPS KSWF THROUGH 12Z. KGON MAY SEE LIGHT SNOW DEVELOP
BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z...BUT CHC`S AREN`T HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN
THE TAF ATTM.

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST...ALTHOUGH TIMING OF
WINDS SHIFTING TO THE E/NE THIS AFTN MAY BE 1-2 HOURS OFF.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.MON...MVFR OR LOWER LIKELY EAST/POSSIBLE WEST IN SNOW. NE-N
WINDS G20-30KT WEST AND 30-40KT EAST POSSIBLE.
.MON NIGHT-TUE NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER LIKELY IN SNOW. MIXED
PCPN POSSIBLE AT COAST DURING THE DAY TUE. N-NE WINDS G15-25KT
POSSIBLE MON NIGHT-TUE.
.WED-THU...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN -SN. W-NW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE
WED NIGHT-THU.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRES WEAKENS OVER THE AREA TODAY AS INTENSIFYING LOW PRES
OFF THE SE COAST TRACKS N THEN NE PASSING SE OF LONG ISLAND ON
MONDAY. NE WINDS DEVELOP AND INCREASE THIS EVENING. MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 35 KT GUSTS ARE LIKELY ON AT LEAST PORTIONS OF
THE OCEAN WATERS W OF FIRE ISLAND INLET AND EASTERN LI
SOUND/BAYS...THEREFORE HAVE CONVERTED THE GALE WATCH TO A WARNING
HERE. REST OF HEADLINES REMAIN UNCHANGED.

GALE FORCE WINDS MAY DIMINISH ON ALL BUT THE OCEAN WATERS E OF
MORICHES INLET DURING THE AFTN ON MON...BUT HAVE KEPT THE END TIME
AT 23Z FOR ALL ZONES TO ALLOW FOR SOME WIGGLE ROOM. SCA WINDS MAY
THEN LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE EVE...HOWEVER WINDS SHOULD COME
DOWN FAIRLY QUICKLY AS THE STORM DEPARTS AND THE PRES GRADIENT
RELAXES. SEAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN AOA 5 FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS IMPACT THE
WATERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

SUB-ADVSY WINDS PREVAIL TUE NIGHT INTO WED...BUT THEN INCREASE
AGAIN WED NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY THU WITH SCA POSSIBLE ON ALL
WATERS. GUSTS ON THE OCEAN WATERS MAY EVEN REACH GALE FORCE THU
AFTN AND EVE...BUT SINCE IT APPEARS MARGINAL ATTM WILL REFRAIN
FROM INCLUDING IN THE HWO.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL SOUTHEAST TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY...QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER LOW TUESDAY THAT WILL BE
CLOSER. A TROUGH LINGERS NEARBY TUE NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

DUE TO PROLONGED UNSETTLED PRECIP EVENT...OVERALL QPF SHOULD
AVERAGE FROM A TENTH OF AN INCH TO CLOSE TO A HALF AN INCH...FROM NW
TO SE. MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS LIKELY TO BE
IN THE FORM OF SNOW. NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
POTENTIAL FOR MINOR COASTAL IMPACTS MONDAY INTO MIDWEEK WITH A NEW
MOON ON MONDAY AND A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURES AFFECTING THE REGION.

AN INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN NE/N WINDS INCREASING TO
POTENTIALLY GALE FORCE SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO MONDAY.
BASED ON A TRACK OF INTENSIFYING LOW THAT SHOULD BE SE OF THE
40/70 LAT/LON BENCHMARK AND COLD AIR DAMMING SIGNATURE...WOULD
EXPECT POTENTIAL FOR WINDS TO BE BACKED MORE TO THE N THAN NE.
THIS WOULD FAVOR THE LOWER SURGE GUIDANCE FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT HIGH TIDE CYCLES...WHICH WOULD KEEP IMPACTS MINOR AND
LIKELY LIMITED TO THE MOST VULNERABLE LOCALES. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR.

AS WE HEAD INTO TUESDAYS HIGH TIDE CYCLES...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
WINDS TO VEER MORE TO THE NE AS ADDITIONAL WAVE/S OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACK TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. THE SPRING ASTRONOMICAL TIDES
AND MULTI-TIDAL CYCLE NATURE OF THE EVENT WILL FAVOR ADDITIONAL
MINOR FLOODING...WITH POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD MINOR TO MODERATE
IMPACTS IN THE BACK BAY AREAS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR ANZ335-338-345.
     GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ330-340-350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PW
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...DS/PW
AVIATION...24
MARINE...24
HYDROLOGY...PW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



  [top]

000
FXUS61 KALY 071131
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
631 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND
TONIGHT AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN CANADA WILL BUILD IN. TONIGHT
INTO THE MIDWEEK A LARGE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SETTLE INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL SET UP THE REGION FOR A PERIOD
OF TYPICAL FEBRUARY WEATHER...CLOUDY...COLD WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT
SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR SEVERAL DAYS...AS TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS AT
THIS TIME SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUDS IN NORTHERN AREAS CONFINED TO PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH
THE MORNING. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTH OUT OF
CANADA AND SOME OF THE CLOUD COVER COULD REDEVELOP OVER NORTHERN
AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT BUT SUNSHINE WILL HELP
TEMPERATURES REACH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S...SOME 30S IN
NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING
AND WITH A PARTLY CLOUDY TO CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT NORTH TO CALM
WINDS DURING THE EVENING...TEMPERATURES COULD DROP SHARPLY BEFORE
CLOUDS SPREAD OVER THE REGION TOWARD MIDNIGHT AND THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS OF MONDAY. LOWS IN THE 20S MOST AREAS...AROUND
20 NORTHERN AREAS.

COMPLEX EVOLUTION TO THE UPPER PATTERN AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
FEATURES MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE
SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE AS TO THE TRACK...TIMING AND COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES. THERE IS A GENERAL
CONSENSUS THAT THE STRONGER UPPER DYNAMICS...FORCING AND DEEPER
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM LARGELY MISSES
OUR FORECAST AREA TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

HOWEVER...DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM UPPER ENERGY INTERACTING WITH
GREAT LAKES MOISTURE COULD ALSO DRAW SOME INDIRECT MOISTURE FROM
THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM. ALSO...THE LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME EAST
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AND MOISTURE ON THE VERY NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM COULD ADVECT INTO WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND AND EASTERN NY. SO...ALL THIS SUGGESTS MORE CLOUDS
THAN SUN MONDAY....ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS...BUT
SOME INTERVALS OF BREAKS AND THINNING OF CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY IN
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S.

THEN...AT LEAST CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW IN MANY AREAS BY
MONDAY NIGHT. BETTER CHANCES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT BUT THE
STRONGER SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS AND
MOISTURE SHOULD BE GONE BY THEN. SO...WITH LESS DEEP MOISTURE BUT
STRONG NORTHERN STREAM UPPER DYNAMICS AND SOME GREAT LAKES
MOISTURE...THERE COULD STILL BE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW
THROUGH THE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT PERIOD.

AT THIS TIME THE BEST CHANCES FOR AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW WOULD BE
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...SOUTHERN TACONICS AND BERKSHIRES BUT
DUSTINGS TO AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE IN EASTERN NEW YORK
AND SOUTHERN VT. AGAIN...THERE IS STILL QUITE A SPREAD IN GUIDANCE
AND DETAILS WILL GET CLEARER AS WE GET CLOSER. HIGHS TUESDAY IN
THE 30S...WITH AROUND 30 NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WEDNESDAY WITH OUR REGION UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A SPRAWLING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS COVERING THE GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHEAST. DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE DIGGING
SOUTH OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ALONG WITH A SLOW MOVING SURFACE
ARCTIC BOUNDARY...WILL FOCUS SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. WILL
MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE AREA...WITH LIKELY ACROSS
HERKIMER COUNTY WHERE LAKE MOISTURE COULD LOCALLY ENHANCE SNOWFALL.
AT THIS TIME ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE LIGHT DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE
AND LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT BAROCLINICITY.

THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL LIKELY PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...AND WILL USHER IN MUCH
COLDER AIR. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE BELOW NORMAL FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN THE MOST
PROLONGED PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THUS FAR THIS WINTER.
CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH HIGHER PROBABILITY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

OVER THE WEEKEND MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR EVEN
COLDER TEMPERATURES...AS AN ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS SOUTH FROM CANADA. A
FRIGID AIR MASS WOULD TAKE HOLD...WHICH WOULD EASILY RESULT IN THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WINTER. CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL
ALSO DECREASE OVER THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE FLOW BECOMING NORTHERLY
AND THE AIR MASS VERY DRY. VERY LOW WIND CHILLS VALUES MAY ACCOMPANY
THE COLD AS WELL DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH WIND THERE IS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CLOUDS HAVE ERODED ACROSS THE TERMINALS...LEAVING CLEAR SKIES.
OTHER THAN SOME HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS LATER IN THE DAY...MAINLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. HOWEVER...AS AN EASTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS TONIGHT SOME STRATUS CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY FOR KPOU/KPSF...WHERE CIGS MAY BE CLOSE TO VFR/MVFR
THRESHOLD.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH TODAY...BECOMING EASTERLY
AROUND 5 KTS LATE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO CONCERNS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS AS
ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...NAS



000
FXUS61 KALY 071131
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
631 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND
TONIGHT AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN CANADA WILL BUILD IN. TONIGHT
INTO THE MIDWEEK A LARGE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SETTLE INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL SET UP THE REGION FOR A PERIOD
OF TYPICAL FEBRUARY WEATHER...CLOUDY...COLD WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT
SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR SEVERAL DAYS...AS TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS AT
THIS TIME SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUDS IN NORTHERN AREAS CONFINED TO PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH
THE MORNING. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTH OUT OF
CANADA AND SOME OF THE CLOUD COVER COULD REDEVELOP OVER NORTHERN
AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT BUT SUNSHINE WILL HELP
TEMPERATURES REACH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S...SOME 30S IN
NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING
AND WITH A PARTLY CLOUDY TO CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT NORTH TO CALM
WINDS DURING THE EVENING...TEMPERATURES COULD DROP SHARPLY BEFORE
CLOUDS SPREAD OVER THE REGION TOWARD MIDNIGHT AND THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS OF MONDAY. LOWS IN THE 20S MOST AREAS...AROUND
20 NORTHERN AREAS.

COMPLEX EVOLUTION TO THE UPPER PATTERN AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
FEATURES MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE
SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE AS TO THE TRACK...TIMING AND COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES. THERE IS A GENERAL
CONSENSUS THAT THE STRONGER UPPER DYNAMICS...FORCING AND DEEPER
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM LARGELY MISSES
OUR FORECAST AREA TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

HOWEVER...DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM UPPER ENERGY INTERACTING WITH
GREAT LAKES MOISTURE COULD ALSO DRAW SOME INDIRECT MOISTURE FROM
THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM. ALSO...THE LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME EAST
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AND MOISTURE ON THE VERY NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM COULD ADVECT INTO WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND AND EASTERN NY. SO...ALL THIS SUGGESTS MORE CLOUDS
THAN SUN MONDAY....ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS...BUT
SOME INTERVALS OF BREAKS AND THINNING OF CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY IN
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S.

THEN...AT LEAST CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW IN MANY AREAS BY
MONDAY NIGHT. BETTER CHANCES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT BUT THE
STRONGER SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS AND
MOISTURE SHOULD BE GONE BY THEN. SO...WITH LESS DEEP MOISTURE BUT
STRONG NORTHERN STREAM UPPER DYNAMICS AND SOME GREAT LAKES
MOISTURE...THERE COULD STILL BE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW
THROUGH THE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT PERIOD.

AT THIS TIME THE BEST CHANCES FOR AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW WOULD BE
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...SOUTHERN TACONICS AND BERKSHIRES BUT
DUSTINGS TO AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE IN EASTERN NEW YORK
AND SOUTHERN VT. AGAIN...THERE IS STILL QUITE A SPREAD IN GUIDANCE
AND DETAILS WILL GET CLEARER AS WE GET CLOSER. HIGHS TUESDAY IN
THE 30S...WITH AROUND 30 NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WEDNESDAY WITH OUR REGION UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A SPRAWLING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS COVERING THE GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHEAST. DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE DIGGING
SOUTH OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ALONG WITH A SLOW MOVING SURFACE
ARCTIC BOUNDARY...WILL FOCUS SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. WILL
MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE AREA...WITH LIKELY ACROSS
HERKIMER COUNTY WHERE LAKE MOISTURE COULD LOCALLY ENHANCE SNOWFALL.
AT THIS TIME ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE LIGHT DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE
AND LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT BAROCLINICITY.

THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL LIKELY PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...AND WILL USHER IN MUCH
COLDER AIR. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE BELOW NORMAL FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN THE MOST
PROLONGED PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THUS FAR THIS WINTER.
CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH HIGHER PROBABILITY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

OVER THE WEEKEND MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR EVEN
COLDER TEMPERATURES...AS AN ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS SOUTH FROM CANADA. A
FRIGID AIR MASS WOULD TAKE HOLD...WHICH WOULD EASILY RESULT IN THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WINTER. CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL
ALSO DECREASE OVER THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE FLOW BECOMING NORTHERLY
AND THE AIR MASS VERY DRY. VERY LOW WIND CHILLS VALUES MAY ACCOMPANY
THE COLD AS WELL DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH WIND THERE IS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CLOUDS HAVE ERODED ACROSS THE TERMINALS...LEAVING CLEAR SKIES.
OTHER THAN SOME HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS LATER IN THE DAY...MAINLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. HOWEVER...AS AN EASTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS TONIGHT SOME STRATUS CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY FOR KPOU/KPSF...WHERE CIGS MAY BE CLOSE TO VFR/MVFR
THRESHOLD.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH TODAY...BECOMING EASTERLY
AROUND 5 KTS LATE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO CONCERNS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS AS
ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...NAS




000
FXUS61 KALY 071113
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
613 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND
TONIGHT AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN CANADA WILL BUILD IN. TONIGHT
INTO THE MIDWEEK A LARGE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SETTLE INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL SET UP THE REGION FOR A PERIOD
OF TYPICAL FEBRUARY WEATHER...CLOUDY...COLD WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT
SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR SEVERAL DAYS...AS TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS AT
THIS TIME SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUDS IN NORTHERN AREAS IS ERODING AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DECREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE MORNING. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
SLOWLY DROP SOUTH OUT OF CANADA AND SOME OF THE CLOUD COVER COULD
REDEVELOP OVER NORTHERN AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT BUT SUNSHINE WILL HELP
TEMPERATURES REACH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S...SOME 30S IN
NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING
AND WITH A PARTLY CLOUDY TO CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT NORTH TO CALM
WINDS DURING THE EVENING...TEMPERATURES COULD DROP SHARPLY BEFORE
CLOUDS SPREAD OVER THE REGION TOWARD MIDNIGHT AND THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS OF MONDAY. LOWS IN THE 20S MOST AREAS...AROUND
20 NORTHERN AREAS.

COMPLEX EVOLUTION TO THE UPPER PATTERN AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
FEATURES MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE
SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE AS TO THE TRACK...TIMING AND COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES. THERE IS A GENERAL
CONSENSUS THAT THE STRONGER UPPER DYNAMICS...FORCING AND DEEPER
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM LARGELY MISSES
OUR FORECAST AREA TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

HOWEVER...DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM UPPER ENERGY INTERACTING WITH
GREAT LAKES MOISTURE COULD ALSO DRAW SOME INDIRECT MOISTURE FROM
THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM. ALSO...THE LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME EAST
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AND MOISTURE ON THE VERY NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM COULD ADVECT INTO WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND AND EASTERN NY. SO...ALL THIS SUGGESTS MORE CLOUDS
THAN SUN MONDAY....ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS...BUT
SOME INTERVALS OF BREAKS AND THINNING OF CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY IN
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S.

THEN...AT LEAST CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW IN MANY AREAS BY
MONDAY NIGHT. BETTER CHANCES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT BUT THE
STRONGER SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS AND
MOISTURE SHOULD BE GONE BY THEN. SO...WITH LESS DEEP MOISTURE BUT
STRONG NORTHERN STREAM UPPER DYNAMICS AND SOME GREAT LAKES
MOISTURE...THERE COULD STILL BE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW
THROUGH THE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT PERIOD.

AT THIS TIME THE BEST CHANCES FOR AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW WOULD BE
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...SOUTHERN TACONICS AND BERKSHIRES BUT
DUSTINGS TO AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE IN EASTERN NEW YORK
AND SOUTHERN VT. AGAIN...THERE IS STILL QUITE A SPREAD IN GUIDANCE
AND DETAILS WILL GET CLEARER AS WE GET CLOSER. HIGHS TUESDAY IN
THE 30S...WITH AROUND 30 NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WEDNESDAY WITH OUR REGION UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A SPRAWLING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS COVERING THE GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHEAST. DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE DIGGING
SOUTH OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ALONG WITH A SLOW MOVING SURFACE
ARCTIC BOUNDARY...WILL FOCUS SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. WILL
MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE AREA...WITH LIKELY ACROSS
HERKIMER COUNTY WHERE LAKE MOISTURE COULD LOCALLY ENHANCE SNOWFALL.
AT THIS TIME ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE LIGHT DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE
AND LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT BAROCLINICITY.

THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL LIKELY PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...AND WILL USHER IN MUCH
COLDER AIR. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE BELOW NORMAL FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN THE MOST
PROLONGED PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THUS FAR THIS WINTER.
CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH HIGHER PROBABILITY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

OVER THE WEEKEND MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR EVEN
COLDER TEMPERATURES...AS AN ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS SOUTH FROM CANADA. A
FRIGID AIR MASS WOULD TAKE HOLD...WHICH WOULD EASILY RESULT IN THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WINTER. CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL
ALSO DECREASE OVER THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE FLOW BECOMING NORTHERLY
AND THE AIR MASS VERY DRY. VERY LOW WIND CHILLS VALUES MAY ACCOMPANY
THE COLD AS WELL DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH WIND THERE IS.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CLOUDS HAVE ERODED ACROSS THE TERMINALS...LEAVING CLEAR SKIES.
OTHER THAN SOME HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS LATER IN THE DAY...MAINLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. HOWEVER...AS AN EASTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS TONIGHT SOME STRATUS CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY FOR KPOU/KPSF...WHERE CIGS MAY BE CLOSE TO VFR/MVFR
THRESHOLD.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH TODAY...BECOMING EASTERLY
AROUND 5 KTS LATE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO CONCERNS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS AS
ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...NAS



000
FXUS61 KALY 071113
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
613 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND
TONIGHT AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN CANADA WILL BUILD IN. TONIGHT
INTO THE MIDWEEK A LARGE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SETTLE INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL SET UP THE REGION FOR A PERIOD
OF TYPICAL FEBRUARY WEATHER...CLOUDY...COLD WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT
SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR SEVERAL DAYS...AS TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS AT
THIS TIME SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUDS IN NORTHERN AREAS IS ERODING AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DECREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE MORNING. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
SLOWLY DROP SOUTH OUT OF CANADA AND SOME OF THE CLOUD COVER COULD
REDEVELOP OVER NORTHERN AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT BUT SUNSHINE WILL HELP
TEMPERATURES REACH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S...SOME 30S IN
NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING
AND WITH A PARTLY CLOUDY TO CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT NORTH TO CALM
WINDS DURING THE EVENING...TEMPERATURES COULD DROP SHARPLY BEFORE
CLOUDS SPREAD OVER THE REGION TOWARD MIDNIGHT AND THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS OF MONDAY. LOWS IN THE 20S MOST AREAS...AROUND
20 NORTHERN AREAS.

COMPLEX EVOLUTION TO THE UPPER PATTERN AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
FEATURES MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE
SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE AS TO THE TRACK...TIMING AND COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES. THERE IS A GENERAL
CONSENSUS THAT THE STRONGER UPPER DYNAMICS...FORCING AND DEEPER
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM LARGELY MISSES
OUR FORECAST AREA TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

HOWEVER...DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM UPPER ENERGY INTERACTING WITH
GREAT LAKES MOISTURE COULD ALSO DRAW SOME INDIRECT MOISTURE FROM
THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM. ALSO...THE LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME EAST
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AND MOISTURE ON THE VERY NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM COULD ADVECT INTO WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND AND EASTERN NY. SO...ALL THIS SUGGESTS MORE CLOUDS
THAN SUN MONDAY....ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS...BUT
SOME INTERVALS OF BREAKS AND THINNING OF CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY IN
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S.

THEN...AT LEAST CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW IN MANY AREAS BY
MONDAY NIGHT. BETTER CHANCES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT BUT THE
STRONGER SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS AND
MOISTURE SHOULD BE GONE BY THEN. SO...WITH LESS DEEP MOISTURE BUT
STRONG NORTHERN STREAM UPPER DYNAMICS AND SOME GREAT LAKES
MOISTURE...THERE COULD STILL BE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW
THROUGH THE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT PERIOD.

AT THIS TIME THE BEST CHANCES FOR AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW WOULD BE
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...SOUTHERN TACONICS AND BERKSHIRES BUT
DUSTINGS TO AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE IN EASTERN NEW YORK
AND SOUTHERN VT. AGAIN...THERE IS STILL QUITE A SPREAD IN GUIDANCE
AND DETAILS WILL GET CLEARER AS WE GET CLOSER. HIGHS TUESDAY IN
THE 30S...WITH AROUND 30 NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WEDNESDAY WITH OUR REGION UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A SPRAWLING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS COVERING THE GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHEAST. DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE DIGGING
SOUTH OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ALONG WITH A SLOW MOVING SURFACE
ARCTIC BOUNDARY...WILL FOCUS SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. WILL
MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE AREA...WITH LIKELY ACROSS
HERKIMER COUNTY WHERE LAKE MOISTURE COULD LOCALLY ENHANCE SNOWFALL.
AT THIS TIME ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE LIGHT DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE
AND LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT BAROCLINICITY.

THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL LIKELY PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...AND WILL USHER IN MUCH
COLDER AIR. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE BELOW NORMAL FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN THE MOST
PROLONGED PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THUS FAR THIS WINTER.
CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH HIGHER PROBABILITY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

OVER THE WEEKEND MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR EVEN
COLDER TEMPERATURES...AS AN ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS SOUTH FROM CANADA. A
FRIGID AIR MASS WOULD TAKE HOLD...WHICH WOULD EASILY RESULT IN THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WINTER. CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL
ALSO DECREASE OVER THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE FLOW BECOMING NORTHERLY
AND THE AIR MASS VERY DRY. VERY LOW WIND CHILLS VALUES MAY ACCOMPANY
THE COLD AS WELL DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH WIND THERE IS.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CLOUDS HAVE ERODED ACROSS THE TERMINALS...LEAVING CLEAR SKIES.
OTHER THAN SOME HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS LATER IN THE DAY...MAINLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. HOWEVER...AS AN EASTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS TONIGHT SOME STRATUS CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY FOR KPOU/KPSF...WHERE CIGS MAY BE CLOSE TO VFR/MVFR
THRESHOLD.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH TODAY...BECOMING EASTERLY
AROUND 5 KTS LATE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO CONCERNS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS AS
ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...NAS



  [top]

000
FXUS61 KBOX 071045
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
545 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER WITH MILD TEMPERATURES TODAY.
ALTHOUGH WE WILL BE ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF A STRONG OCEAN STORM
PASSING FAR TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION...OCEAN-EFFECT
ENHANCEMENT MAY BRING A PLOWABLE SNOWFALL TO MUCH OF THE EASTERN
HALF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. AN ADDITIONAL
COASTAL LOW WILL BRING SNOW TO THE REGION ON TUESDAY...WITH
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE REGION THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY DRY AIR AND COLDER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO FINISH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
515 AM UPDATE...
A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY IS IN STORE TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A NORTHEASTERLY
DIRECTION LATE IN THE DAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...
1035 QUEBEC SURFACE HIGH ADVECTS SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR SOUTHWARD
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MEANWHILE MID LEVEL SOUTHERN STREAM
TROUGH OVER THE GULF STATES INDUCES CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE EAST
COAST OF SC THIS EVENING AND THEN RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES INTO A SUB
980 MB LOW/GALE CENTER WELL EAST OF THE NC COAST TONIGHT.

TYPICALLY THIS TRACK IS TOO FAR OFFSHORE TO YIELD ACCUMULATING
SNOW TO SOUTHEAST MA. HOWEVER THIS CYCLONE HAS A VERY LARGE
CIRCULATION/WCB/FIREHOSE IN ADDITION TO 1035 MB SURFACE HIGH OVER
QUEBEC...AND AS INDICATED BELOW...WE ARE EXPECTING OCEAN-EFFECT
ENHANCEMENT. LIGHT SNOW SHOULD MOVE ONSHORE FROM THE SOUTH BEFORE
DAYBREAK MONDAY.

MONDAY...
HAVE EXPANDED THE WINTER STORM WATCH TO INCLUDE MUCH OF EASTERN MA
INCLUDING WORCESTER AND BOSTON METROPOLITAN AREAS...AND TO THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF RI. CONTINUED THE WINTER STORM WATCH FOR
SOUTHEASTERN MA...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED ALMOST TO THE
POINT OF WARNINGS THERE BUT WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT GIVE A FINAL
ASSESSMENT.

ALTHOUGH WE WILL BE ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF A STRONG OCEAN STORM
PASSING FAR TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION...OCEAN-EFFECT
ENHANCEMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE THE KEY TO THE FORECAST. WITH WATER
TEMPERATURES RUNNING ABOUT +5C TO +6C...WE WOULD TYPICALLY BEGIN
TO SEE OCEAN EFFECT WITH A DIFFERENTIAL OF ABOUT 13 DEGREES C
BETWEEN THE OCEAN SURFACE AND 850 MB...OR ABOUT -7C. ALL MODELS
INDICATE THAT THIS WILL HAPPEN...AND THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE -10C
AIR AT 850 MB EXTENDING ALONG THE EASTERN MA COAST MON AFTERNOON
INTO MON NIGHT. WITH STRONG NE WINDS...GUSTING TO 40+ MPH AT THE
COAST...THE SNOW SHOULD EXTEND WELL INLAND.

THERE IS INCREASING CONSENSUS IN MODEL QPF BUT STILL SOME BIG
DIFFERENCES. THE UKMET HAS BETWEEN 0.5 AND 1.2 INCHES OF LIQUID
EQUIVALENT ACROSS EASTERN MA WITH THE HIGHEST ON CAPE COD AND
NANTUCKET. THE GFS HAS INCREASED SINCE THE PREVIOUS RUN. THE 00Z
NAM IS IN LINE WITH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF. IN GENERAL...4 TO 6
INCHES IS A REAL POSSIBILITY IN THE I-95 CORRIDOR PERHAPS EVEN
BACK TO WORCESTER AND NORTHEAST TO THE MERRIMACK VALLEY AND CAPE
ANN. ONLY 2 OR 3 INCHES OUT IN HARTFORD/SPRINGFIELD AREAS AND THE
CT RIVER VALLEY. HOWEVER...THE JACKPOT COULD BE SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH
COUNTY AND PORTIONS OF CAPE COD WHERE 6 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.
THE FORECAST IS VERY TRICKY FOR NANTUCKET WHERE WET BULB COOLING
SHOULD MEAN ALMOST ALL SNOW. WE MAY NEED TO UP POTENTIAL SNOW
AMOUNTS CONSIDERABLY.

ONE CONCERN IS THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM AND THE LOWER RESOLUTION
CANADIAN MODEL WHICH BOTH FORECAST MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS IN
SOUTHEAST MA.

WITH THE WINDS NEAR 40 MPH AT TIMES...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT NEAR
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR ALONG THE COAST...ESPECIALLY IN
PLYMOUTH...BARNSTABLE...DUKES...AND NANTUCKET COUNTIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...

LONGWAVE SCALE SHOWS RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN USA AND TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN USA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AT SHORTER SCALES...MODELS
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THREE SHORTWAVES AFFECTING SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND DURING EARLY TO MID WEEK. THE FIRST PASSES WELL OFFSHORE ON
MONDAY AS NOTED IN THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION. THE SECOND SHORTWAVE
DIGS OVER THE MIDWEST INTO THE MEAN TROUGH POSITION AND GENERATES
ANOTHER COASTAL LOW MONDAY NIGHT...THIS ONE ON THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST. THE THIRD SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTH FROM THE ARCTIC INTO THE
EASTERN USA TROUGH...THEN SWEEPS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY. CLOSED
UPPER LOW FROM BAFFIN ISLAND THEN DIVES SOUTH OVER EASTERN CANADA
AND MAINTAINS THE EASTERN CYCLONIC FLOW AND LOW HEIGHTS INTO
SATURDAY.  THIS POINTS TO AN UNSETTLED PERIOD MUCH OF THE COMING
WEEK WITH NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS EARLY WEEK AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
LATE WEEK.

MODEL MASS FIELDS ARE SIMILAR THROUGH TUESDAY AND INDICATE THE SAME
GENERAL PATTERN THROUGH SATURDAY. BUT THERE ARE ALSO DIFFERENCES IN
DETAILS IN TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVES...ESPECIALLY STARTING TUESDAY.
WE CONTINUE TO USE A BLEND OF MODEL DATA. CONFIDENCE IS LOW-MODERATE
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY AND MODERATE FOR THE LATE WEEK.

THE DAILIES...

MONDAY NIGHT... OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA
MONDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH UPPER DYNAMICS ARE MARGINAL...LOW LEVEL LIFT
WILL DRAW UPON THE LINGERING NORTHEAST FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MAINE TO
BRING SNOW TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY AREAS EAST OF THE CENTRAL
HILLS. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE IN SOUTHEAST MASS/CAPE COD WHERE THE
EXPOSURE TO THE NORTHEAST FLOW IS STRONGEST. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF
OVERNIGHT AS THE OFFSHORE LOW GETS FARTHER AWAY.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY... THE SECOND COASTAL LOW GEARS UP ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY TUESDAY AND MOVES NORTHEAST PASSING
JUST SOUTH OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. THIS IS CLOSE ENOUGH...AND
MODELS AGREE...TO BRING ANOTHER SURGE OF PRECIP INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. THE STRONGEST LIFT TUESDAY MORNING IS FOCUSSED IN THE LOWER
LEVELS...AOB 850 MB...WITH DEEPER LIFT TUESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT.
THE MOST FAVORED AREAS FOR SNOW WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...WITH
DECREASING POPS FARTHER NORTH AND NORTHWEST.

THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLD POOL WILL WORK INTO NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY
WITH SUFFICIENT UPPER MOISTURE FOR CLOUDS...AND ENOUGH COOLING TEMPS
ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.  ONE MORE SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH EITHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR
THURSDAY...MODELS SHOW SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES. THIS SHORTWAVE COMES
FROM NORTHERN CANADA...WILL SUPPORT AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT THAT WILL
BRING ONE MORE CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY... COLDER AIR POURS IN BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT.
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY SUPPORT DAYTIME CLOUDS BUT THE
DEEPER COLUMN WILL BECOME DRY SUGGESTING AT LEAST SOME SUNSHINE. THE
TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER SHOULD BE BETWEEN 900 AND 925 MB FRIDAY...AND
875 MB SATURDAY. TEMPS AT THESE LEVELS WOULD SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS
IN THE 20S FRIDAY AND MID TEENS TO MID 20S SATURDAY. THIS COLD AIR
ALONG WITH 15-25 KNOT WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GENERATE OCEAN
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OFF THE COAST. THE FRIDAY WEST-TO-EAST FETCH
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL SNOW BANDS SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND AFFECTING THE ISLANDS.  THE SATURDAY NORTHWEST FETCH SHOULD
MAINLY BE OFFSHORE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING NE
TOWARD SUNSET.

TONIGHT...VFR AND DRY THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT. THEN CEILINGS LOWERING
TO MVFR WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SNOW OR MIXED RAIN/SNOW TOWARD
DAYBREAK MON ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. NE WINDS GUSTING UP TO 35 KT
CAPE COD AND ISLANDS TOWARD DAYBREAK.

MONDAY...IFR IN SNOW EASTERN MA AND RI. VISIBILITIES MAY BE
REDUCED TO NEAR ZERO ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE HEAVY OCEAN
EFFECT SNOW SQUALLS ARE LIKELY. MVFR IN LIGHTER SNOW IN WESTERN MA
AND NORTHERN CT. NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING TO 40 KT ALONG THE MA
COAST...HIGHEST S OF BOSTON.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH THIS EVENING THEN
MODERATE CONFIDENCE LATE TONIGHT REGARDING ARRIVAL TIME OF
LOWERING CEILINGS AND ARRIVAL OF SNOW. MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR
MONDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MIDNIGHT. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING OF THE ARRIVAL OF LOWER CEILINGS LATER
TONIGHT AND ARRIVAL OF SNOW MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...IFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBYS IN PERIODS OF
SNOW. NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS ALONG THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT
AND 20-25 KNOTS TUESDAY. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY WITH WINDS SHIFTING WEST AND DIMINISHING.

THURSDAY...COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING A WIND
SHIFT. WINDS PICK UP OUT OF THE NORTHWEST NEAR 30 KNOTS. BRIEF
MVFR/IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OVERNIGHT...W TO SW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KT OVER THE EASTERN MA
WATERS...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING TOWARD DAYBREAK.

TODAY...TRANQUIL WIND AND SEAS ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER AND GOOD
VSBY.

TONIGHT...NE WINDS INCREASE TO GALE FORCE ACROSS THE RI AND
SOUTHERN MA WATERS...AND POSSIBLY THE NORTHERN MA WATERS TOWARD
DAYBREAK. GALE WARNINGS POSTED FOR ALL OF THE MA AND RI COASTAL
WATERS. VSBY LOWERING IN SNOW LATE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. SEAS
WILL BUILD RAPIDLY WITH POWERFUL LOW PRES WELL OFF THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST COMBINING WITH A 1035 MB SURFACE HIGH OVER QUEBEC.

MONDAY...GALE FORCE WINDS GUSTING TO 35-45 KTS OVER ALL COASTAL
WATERS ALONG WITH VISIBILITIES REDUCED TO BELOW 1 MILE IN SNOW.
LOCALLY NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SNOW SQUALLS. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION IS OVER NARRAGANSETT BAY WHERE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE POSTED FOR WIND GUSTS OF LESS THAN 30 KTS.
VERY ROUGH SEAS BUILDING UP TO 14-18 FEET OFF THE MA COAST.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...

MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE-HIGH CONFIDENCE.  DIMINISHING NORTHEAST
WINDS. GALES LINGERING NORTH AND EAST OF PROVINCETOWN EARLY IN THE
NIGHT. ROUGH SEAS EARLY WITH HEIGHTS AROUND 15 FEET EASTOF
MASSACHUSETTS...DIMINISHING TO 8-12 FEET BY MORNING. AS GALES COME
DOWN...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY... DIMINISHING NORTH WINDS TUESDAY WILL BECOME
NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY...WITH SPEEDS 20-25 KNOTS TUESDAY AND BELOW 20
KNOTS WEDNESDAY. SEAS WILL REMAIN ROUGH WITH 7-10 FOOT HEIGHTS
TUESDAY AND 5-10 FOOT HEIGHTS WEDNESDAY.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL
BE NEEDED.

THURSDAY... AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE WATERS WITH
COLDER AIR MOVING IN. WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 30
KNOTS. THESE WINDS WILL DRIVE 5-8 FOOT SEAS ESPECIALLY ON THE OUTER
WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED. THE COLD FRONT MAY
BRING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WITH BRIEFLY POOR VSBYS. THE ARCTIC COLD
AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL START TO GENERATE OCEAN EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS WITH LOCAL POOR VSBYS LATER IN THE DAY ESPECIALLY EAST OF
MASSACHUSETTS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRO TIDES LATE MON MORNING ARE HIGH WITH 11.2 FT AT BOSTON.
STRONG NE WINDS UP TO 40 KT WILL YIELD A STORM SURGE OF 1.5 FT TO
2.0 FT AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG WAVE
ACTION OF 14-18 FT JUST OFFSHORE WILL YIELD A RISK OF MODERATE
COASTAL FLOODING.

ETSS WAS A BIT HIGHER THAN ESTOFS AND SEEMS REASONABLE. WIND
FIELD IS SOMEWHAT LOWER NORTH OF PLYMOUTH COUNTY. THUS THREAT OF
COASTAL FLOODING IS LOWER FROM BOSTON NORTHWARD. THEREFORE HAVE
CONFINED THE COASTAL FLOOD WATCH SOUTH OF BOSTON THRU PLYMOUTH TO
CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET.

OTHER CONCERN IS BEACH EROSION GIVEN THE HIGH WATER LEVELS...STRONG
WAVE ACTION OVER MULTIPLE TIDE CYCLES. AGAIN APPEARS HIGHEST RISK
WILL BE SOUTH OF BOSTON. HOWEVER WILL HAVE TO MONITOR LATER MODEL
RUNS FOR POSSIBLE EXPANSION OF THE WATCH NORTHWARD.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MAZ019-022-024.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR MAZ005>007-012>024.
RI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR RIZ001-002-004-005-007.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ231>235-237-254>256.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ230.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ236.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ250-251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/GAF
NEAR TERM...EVT/GAF
SHORT TERM...GAF
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/GAF
MARINE...WTB/GAF
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NOCERA/GAF/WTB




000
FXUS61 KBOX 071024
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
524 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER WITH MILD TEMPERATURES TODAY.
ALTHOUGH WE WILL BE ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF A STRONG OCEAN STORM
PASSING FAR TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION...OCEAN-EFFECT
ENHANCEMENT MAY BRING A PLOWABLE SNOWFALL TO MUCH OF THE EASTERN
HALF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. AN ADDITIONAL
COASTAL LOW WILL BRING SNOW TO THE REGION ON TUESDAY...WITH
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE REGION THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY DRY AIR AND COLDER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO FINISH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
515 AM UPDATE...
A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY IS IN STORE TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A NORTHEASTERLY
DIRECTION LATE IN THE DAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...
1035 QUEBEC SURFACE HIGH ADVECTS SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR SOUTHWARD
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MEANWHILE MID LEVEL SOUTHERN STREAM
TROUGH OVER THE GULF STATES INDUCES CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE EAST
COAST OF SC THIS EVENING AND THEN RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES INTO A SUB
980 MB LOW/GALE CENTER WELL EAST OF THE NC COAST TONIGHT.

TYPICALLY THIS TRACK IS TOO FAR OFFSHORE TO YIELD ACCUMULATING
SNOW TO SOUTHEAST MA. HOWEVER THIS CYCLONE HAS A VERY LARGE
CIRCULATION/WCB/FIREHOSE IN ADDITION TO 1035 MB SURFACE HIGH OVER
QUEBEC...AND AS INDICATED BELOW...WE ARE EXPECTING OCEAN-EFFECT
ENHANCEMENT. LIGHT SNOW SHOULD MOVE ONSHORE FROM THE SOUTH BEFORE
DAYBREAK MONDAY.

MONDAY...
HAVE EXPANDED THE WINTER STORM WATCH TO INCLUDE MUCH OF EASTERN MA
INCLUDING WORCESTER AND BOSTON METROPOLITAN AREAS...AND TO THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF RI. CONTINUED THE WINTER STORM WATCH FOR
SOUTHEASTERN MA...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED ALMOST TO THE
POINT OF WARNINGS THERE BUT WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT GIVE A FINAL
ASSESSMENT.

ALTHOUGH WE WILL BE ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF A STRONG OCEAN STORM
PASSING FAR TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION...OCEAN-EFFECT
ENHANCEMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE THE KEY TO THE FORECAST. WITH WATER
TEMPERATURES RUNNING ABOUT +5C TO +6C...WE WOULD TYPICALLY BEGIN
TO SEE OCEAN EFFECT WITH A DIFFERENTIAL OF ABOUT 13 DEGREES C
BETWEEN THE OCEAN SURFACE AND 850 MB...OR ABOUT -7C. ALL MODELS
INDICATE THAT THIS WILL HAPPEN...AND THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE -10C
AIR AT 850 MB EXTENDING ALONG THE EASTERN MA COAST MON AFTERNOON
INTO MON NIGHT. WITH STRONG NE WINDS...GUSTING TO 40+ MPH AT THE
COAST...THE SNOW SHOULD EXTEND WELL INLAND.

THERE IS INCREASING CONSENSUS IN MODEL QPF BUT STILL SOME BIG
DIFFERENCES. THE UKMET HAS BETWEEN 0.5 AND 1.2 INCHES OF LIQUID
EQUIVALENT ACROSS EASTERN MA WITH THE HIGHEST ON CAPE COD AND
NANTUCKET. THE GFS HAS INCREASED SINCE THE PREVIOUS RUN. THE 00Z
NAM IS IN LINE WITH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF. IN GENERAL...4 TO 6
INCHES IS A REAL POSSIBILITY IN THE I-95 CORRIDOR PERHAPS EVEN
BACK TO WORCESTER AND NORTHEAST TO THE MERRIMACK VALLEY AND CAPE
ANN. ONLY 2 OR 3 INCHES OUT IN HARTFORD/SPRINGFIELD AREAS AND THE
CT RIVER VALLEY. HOWEVER...THE JACKPOT COULD BE SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH
COUNTY AND PORTIONS OF CAPE COD WHERE 6 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.
THE FORECAST IS VERY TRICKY FOR NANTUCKET WHERE WET BULB COOLING
SHOULD MEAN ALMOST ALL SNOW. WE MAY NEED TO UP POTENTIAL SNOW
AMOUNTS CONSIDERABLY.

ONE CONCERN IS THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM AND THE LOWER RESOLUTION
CANADIAN MODEL WHICH BOTH FORECAST MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS IN
SOUTHEAST MA.

WITH THE WINDS NEAR 40 MPH AT TIMES...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT NEAR
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR ALONG THE COAST...ESPECIALLY IN
PLYMOUTH...BARNSTABLE...DUKES...AND NANTUCKET COUNTIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...

LONGWAVE SCALE SHOWS RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN USA AND TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN USA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AT SHORTER SCALES...MODELS
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THREE SHORTWAVES AFFECTING SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND DURING EARLY TO MID WEEK. THE FIRST PASSES WELL OFFSHORE ON
MONDAY AS NOTED IN THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION. THE SECOND SHORTWAVE
DIGS OVER THE MIDWEST INTO THE MEAN TROUGH POSITION AND GENERATES
ANOTHER COASTAL LOW MONDAY NIGHT...THIS ONE ON THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST. THE THIRD SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTH FROM THE ARCTIC INTO THE
EASTERN USA TROUGH...THEN SWEEPS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY. CLOSED
UPPER LOW FROM BAFFIN ISLAND THEN DIVES SOUTH OVER EASTERN CANADA
AND MAINTAINS THE EASTERN CYCLONIC FLOW AND LOW HEIGHTS INTO
SATURDAY.  THIS POINTS TO AN UNSETTLED PERIOD MUCH OF THE COMING
WEEK WITH NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS EARLY WEEK AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
LATE WEEK.

MODEL MASS FIELDS ARE SIMILAR THROUGH TUESDAY AND INDICATE THE SAME
GENERAL PATTERN THROUGH SATURDAY. BUT THERE ARE ALSO DIFFERENCES IN
DETAILS IN TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVES...ESPECIALLY STARTING TUESDAY.
WE CONTINUE TO USE A BLEND OF MODEL DATA. CONFIDENCE IS LOW-MODERATE
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY AND MODERATE FOR THE LATE WEEK.

THE DAILIES...

MONDAY NIGHT... OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA
MONDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH UPPER DYNAMICS ARE MARGINAL...LOW LEVEL LIFT
WILL DRAW UPON THE LINGERING NORTHEAST FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MAINE TO
BRING SNOW TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY AREAS EAST OF THE CENTRAL
HILLS. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE IN SOUTHEAST MASS/CAPE COD WHERE THE
EXPOSURE TO THE NORTHEAST FLOW IS STRONGEST. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF
OVERNIGHT AS THE OFFSHORE LOW GETS FARTHER AWAY.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY... THE SECOND COASTAL LOW GEARS UP ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY TUESDAY AND MOVES NORTHEAST PASSING
JUST SOUTH OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. THIS IS CLOSE ENOUGH...AND
MODELS AGREE...TO BRING ANOTHER SURGE OF PRECIP INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. THE STRONGEST LIFT TUESDAY MORNING IS FOCUSSED IN THE LOWER
LEVELS...AOB 850 MB...WITH DEEPER LIFT TUESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT.
THE MOST FAVORED AREAS FOR SNOW WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...WITH
DECREASING POPS FARTHER NORTH AND NORTHWEST.

THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLD POOL WILL WORK INTO NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY
WITH SUFFICIENT UPPER MOISTURE FOR CLOUDS...AND ENOUGH COOLING TEMPS
ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.  ONE MORE SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH EITHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR
THURSDAY...MODELS SHOW SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES. THIS SHORTWAVE COMES
FROM NORTHERN CANADA...WILL SUPPORT AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT THAT WILL
BRING ONE MORE CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY... COLDER AIR POURS IN BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT.
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY SUPPORT DAYTIME CLOUDS BUT THE
DEEPER COLUMN WILL BECOME DRY SUGGESTING AT LEAST SOME SUNSHINE. THE
TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER SHOULD BE BETWEEN 900 AND 925 MB FRIDAY...AND
875 MB SATURDAY. TEMPS AT THESE LEVELS WOULD SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS
IN THE 20S FRIDAY AND MID TEENS TO MID 20S SATURDAY. THIS COLD AIR
ALONG WITH 15-25 KNOT WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GENERATE OCEAN
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OFF THE COAST. THE FRIDAY WEST-TO-EAST FETCH
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL SNOW BANDS SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND AFFECTING THE ISLANDS.  THE SATURDAY NORTHWEST FETCH SHOULD
MAINLY BE OFFSHORE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SW WINDS MAY GUST TO 20 KT IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF BERKSHIRE COUNTY AND THE WORCESTER HILLS.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
BECOMING NE TOWARD SUNSET.

SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR AND DRY THRU ABOUT MIDNIGHT. THEN LOWERING TO
MVFR WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SNOW OR MIX RAIN/SNOW TOWARD
DAYBREAK MON. NE WINDS GUSTING UP TO 35 KT CAPE COD AND ISLANDS
TOWARD 12Z MON.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE THRU SUN EVENING THEN LOWERING
LATE SUN NIGHT REGARDING ARRIVAL OF LOWER CIGS/VSBYS IN SNOW/RAIN.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MONDAY-TUESDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/IFR VSBYS IN -SN ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.
LOWEST CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS E MA/RI...WHERE THEY MAY SEE
PERIODS OF MODERATE SNOW IN OCEAN EFFECT ESPECIALLY SE COASTAL MA
/PLYMOUTH COUNTY/...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS LATE MON AND MON
NIGHT. MAY SEE MIXED -RN-SN ALONG E COAST TUE AFTERNOON. NE WIND
GUSTS UP TO 35 KT MON INTO MON NIGHT ALONG IMMEDIATE E COASTAL
MA...DIMINISHING TO AROUND 25 KT TUE.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT -SHSN TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION AS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. MAY SEE MIX WITH -RA ALONG S COAST
WED AFTERNOON. COULD SEE PERIODS OF MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR
CIGS/VSBYS... MAINLY WED-WED NIGHT. CONDITIONS SHOULD SLOWLY
IMPROVE TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THU. N-NE WIND GUSTS
AROUND 25 KT EARLY WED WILL DIMINISH BY AROUND MIDDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OVERNIGHT...W TO SW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KT OVER THE EASTERN MA
WATERS...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING TOWARD DAYBREAK.

SUNDAY...TRANQUIL WIND AND SEAS ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER AND GOOD
VSBY.

SUNDAY NIGHT ... NE WINDS LIKELY INCREASE TO GALE FORCE ACROSS THE
RI AND SOUTHERN MA WATERS. THUS GALE WARNINGS POSTED. LOW
PROBABILITY NORTH OF CAPE COD SO GALE WATCHES POSTED THERE. VSBY
LOWERING IN SNOW LATE. SEAS WILL BUILD RAPIDLY WITH POWERFUL LOW
PRES OFF THE NC COAST COMBINING WITH 1035 MB SURFACE HIGH OVER
QUEBEC.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...

MONDAY...GALE CENTER WILL PASS WELL SE OF NANTUCKET...BUT GALE
FORCE GUSTS WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND WELL NW OF THE CENTER. NE
WINDS GUSTING TO 35-45 KT...HIGHEST E AND S OF CAPE COD AND
NANTUCKET... WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE MORNING THEN WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND MON NIGHT. SEAS UP TO 14-18 FT
ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE MON AFTERNOON.
VSBY RESTRICTIONS FOR AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW MON-MON
NIGHT.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME. NE WINDS IN PLACE TUE AND TUE NIGHT...GUSTING UP
TO 25-30 KT...WITH SEAS UP TO 8-11 FT. EXPECT WINDS TO BACK TO
N-NW WITH GUSTS CONTINUING AT AROUND 25 KT. SEAS WILL BUILD AGAIN
ON TUESDAY...HIGHEST E AND S OF NANTUCKET...UP TO 9-14 KT AS
ANOTHER LOW PASSES SE OF NANTUCKET. VSBY RESTRICTIONS CONTINUE FOR
LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW.

THURSDAY...NW WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST UP TO 25-30 KT. LOW RISK OF
GUSTS UP TO 35 KT THU NIGHT E AND S OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET.
SEAS UP TO 7-11 FT ON THE SE OUTER WATERS. LOCAL VSBY RESTRICTIONS
IN SCT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS...BUT SHOULD IMPROVE THU
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRO TIDES LATE MON MORNING ARE HIGH WITH 11.2 FT AT BOSTON.
STRONG NE WINDS UP TO 40 KT WILL YIELD A STORM SURGE OF 1.5 FT TO
2.0 FT AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG WAVE
ACTION OF 12-18 FT JUST OFFSHORE WILL YIELD A RISK OF MODERATE
COASTAL FLOODING.

ETSS WAS A BIT HIGHER THAN ESTOFS AND SEEMS REASONABLE. WIND
FIELD DECREASES SUBSTANTIALLY NORTH OF PLYMOUTH COUNTY. THUS
THREAT OF COASTAL FLOODING IS LOWER FROM BOSTON NORTHWARD.
THEREFORE HAVE CONFINED THE COASTAL FLOOD WATCH SOUTH OF BOSTON
THRU PLYMOUTH TO CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET.

OTHER CONCERN IS BEACH EROSION GIVEN THE HIGH WATER LEVELS...STRONG
WAVE ACTION OVER MULTIPLE TIDE CYCLES. AGAIN APPEARS HIGHEST RISK
WILL BE SOUTH OF BOSTON. HOWEVER WILL HAVE TO MONITOR LATER MODEL
RUNS FOR POSSIBLE EXPANSION OF THE WATCH NORTHWARD.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MAZ019-022-024.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR MAZ005>007-012>024.
RI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR RIZ001-002-004-005-007.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ231>235-237-254>256.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ230.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ236.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ250-251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/GAF
NEAR TERM...EVT/GAF
SHORT TERM...GAF
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/GAF
MARINE...WTB/GAF
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NOCERA




000
FXUS61 KBOX 071021
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
521 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER WITH MILD TEMPERATURES TODAY.
ALTHOUGH WE WILL BE ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF A STRONG OCEAN STORM
PASSING FAR TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION...OCEAN-EFFECT
ENHANCEMENT MAY BRING A PLOWABLE SNOWFALL TO MUCH OF THE EASTERN
HALF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. PERIODS OF
LIGHT SNOW ARE LIKELY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND POSSIBLY LINGERING
INTO THURSDAY. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT BRINGS BITTERLY COLD CONDITIONS
THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
515 AM UPDATE...
A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY IS IN STORE TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A NORTHEASTERLY
DIRECTION LATE IN THE DAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...
1035 QUEBEC SURFACE HIGH ADVECTS SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR SOUTHWARD
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MEANWHILE MID LEVEL SOUTHERN STREAM
TROUGH OVER THE GULF STATES INDUCES CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE EAST
COAST OF SC THIS EVENING AND THEN RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES INTO A SUB
980 MB LOW/GALE CENTER WELL EAST OF THE NC COAST TONIGHT.

TYPICALLY THIS TRACK IS TOO FAR OFFSHORE TO YIELD ACCUMULATING
SNOW TO SOUTHEAST MA. HOWEVER THIS CYCLONE HAS A VERY LARGE
CIRCULATION/WCB/FIREHOSE IN ADDITION TO 1035 MB SURFACE HIGH OVER
QUEBEC...AND AS INDICATED BELOW...WE ARE EXPECTING OCEAN-EFFECT
ENHANCEMENT. LIGHT SNOW SHOULD MOVE ONSHORE FROM THE SOUTH BEFORE
DAYBREAK MONDAY.

MONDAY...
HAVE EXPANDED THE WINTER STORM WATCH TO INCLUDE MUCH OF EASTERN MA
INCLUDING WORCESTER AND BOSTON METROPOLITAN AREAS...AND TO THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF RI. CONTINUED THE WINTER STORM WATCH FOR
SOUTHEASTERN MA...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED ALMOST TO THE
POINT OF WARNINGS THERE BUT WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT GIVE A FINAL
ASSESSMENT.

ALTHOUGH WE WILL BE ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF A STRONG OCEAN STORM
PASSING FAR TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION...OCEAN-EFFECT
ENHANCEMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE THE KEY TO THE FORECAST. WITH WATER
TEMPERATURES RUNNING ABOUT +5C TO +6C...WE WOULD TYPICALLY BEGIN
TO SEE OCEAN EFFECT WITH A DIFFERENTIAL OF ABOUT 13 DEGREES C
BETWEEN THE OCEAN SURFACE AND 850 MB...OR ABOUT -7C. ALL MODELS
INDICATE THAT THIS WILL HAPPEN...AND THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE -10C
AIR AT 850 MB EXTENDING ALONG THE EASTERN MA COAST MON AFTERNOON
INTO MON NIGHT. WITH STRONG NE WINDS...GUSTING TO 40+ MPH AT THE
COAST...THE SNOW SHOULD EXTEND WELL INLAND.

THERE IS INCREASING CONSENSUS IN MODEL QPF BUT STILL SOME BIG
DIFFERENCES. THE UKMET HAS BETWEEN 0.5 AND 1.2 INCHES OF LIQUID
EQUIVALENT ACROSS EASTERN MA WITH THE HIGHEST ON CAPE COD AND
NANTUCKET. THE GFS HAS INCREASED SINCE THE PREVIOUS RUN. THE 00Z
NAM IS IN LINE WITH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF. IN GENERAL...4 TO 6
INCHES IS A REAL POSSIBILITY IN THE I-95 CORRIDOR PERHAPS EVEN
BACK TO WORCESTER AND NORTHEAST TO THE MERRIMACK VALLEY AND CAPE
ANN. ONLY 2 OR 3 INCHES OUT IN HARTFORD/SPRINGFIELD AREAS AND THE
CT RIVER VALLEY. HOWEVER...THE JACKPOT COULD BE SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH
COUNTY AND PORTIONS OF CAPE COD WHERE 6 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.
THE FORECAST IS VERY TRICKY FOR NANTUCKET WHERE WET BULB COOLING
SHOULD MEAN ALMOST ALL SNOW. WE MAY NEED TO UP POTENTIAL SNOW
AMOUNTS CONSIDERABLY.

ONE CONCERN IS THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM AND THE LOWER RESOLUTION
CANADIAN MODEL WHICH BOTH FORECAST MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS IN
SOUTHEAST MA.

WITH THE WINDS NEAR 40 MPH AT TIMES...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT NEAR
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR ALONG THE COAST...ESPECIALLY IN
PLYMOUTH...BARNSTABLE...DUKES...AND NANTUCKET COUNTIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DISCUSSION...
AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE FOR MUCH
IF NOT ALL OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THOUGH SIGNS CONTINUE TO SHOW
SOME DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH LATER THIS WEEK
ACROSS THE EAST. MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SIGNAL UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS THROUGH WED AND POSSIBLY INTO THU...THEN WILL START TO
SETTLE DOWN. HOWEVER...LOOKS LIKE WINTER TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH
IN WITH THE DRIER CONDITIONS LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

STILL PROBLEMS WITH SEPARATION BETWEEN SHORT WAVES IN THE OVERALL
CUTOFF LOW PRES/LONG WAVE TROUGH MON-WED...THOUGH DOES LOOK LIKE
SOME SETTLING IN WITH SOME OF THE DETAILS. HOWEVER...WITH UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE...WILL STILL SEE PERIODS OF PRECIP
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.

USED A BLEND OF MOST OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE ALONG WITH
ENSEMBLES WHICH GAVE REASONABLE CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

DETAILS...

MONDAY-TUESDAY...MODELS SETTLING IN WITH CONTINUE NE FLOW IN
PLACE. FIRST LOW PRES PASSES WELL SE OF NANTUCKET...BUT
COMBINATION OF THIS STRONG STORM /CENTRAL PRES FROM 970-978 HPA AS
IT PASSES MON AFTERNOON/ AND HIGH PRES RIDGING EXTENDING S OUT OF
QUEBEC ACROSS W NEW ENGLAND...VERY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT IN PLACE.
THIS WILL PRODUCE STRONG NE WINDS ACROSS E COASTAL
AREAS...GENERALLY S OF BOSTON. GUSTS MAY REACH UP TO 35-45 MPH
ALONG E COASTAL AREAS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...THEN WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH.

MODELS DO KEEP PUSHING NW FRINGE OF PRECIP INTO EASTERN AND
POSSIBLY CENTRAL AREAS...PLUS WILL LIKELY SEE COMBINATION OF OCEAN
EFFECT SNOW. NOTING AT LEAST CONDITIONAL CONDITIONS FOR LAKE
EFFECT ON BOTH GFS AND 4 KM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS LATE MON/MON NIGHT.

DID HAVE ISSUES WITH QPF FORECAST...THOUGH WITH STRONG ONSHORE
WINDS SHOULD SEE SOME ENHANCEMENT THERE. USED A BLEND OF WPC
GUIDANCE... 12Z GFS AND A TOUCH OF THE 15Z SREF...WITH HIGHEST
AMOUNTS ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z MONDAY WITH
INITIAL SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS LOW PASSES.

WITH THE COMBINATION OF INITIAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRONG
ONSHORE WINDS ENHANCING THE PRECIPITATION...EXPECT TO SEE BEST
CHANCE FOR SNOW ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS INTO PLYMOUTH
COUNTY. PARTIAL THICKNESSES SUPPORT MAINLY SNOW...THOUGH COULD SEE
SOME MIX WITH RAIN DURING TUESDAY WITH LIGHTER PRECIP. BASED ON
THIS...HAVE ISSUED WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THOSE AREAS MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF BUT NOT TOTALLY END DURING TUESDAY AS
UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL SITS CLOSE TO THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP
CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE AND KEEPING LIGHT SNOWFALL IN PLACE. WILL
LIKELY ALSO SEE A MIX WITH RAIN ALONG THE S COAST. BEST SHOT FOR
PRECIP WILL REMAIN ACROSS S COASTAL AREAS...THOUGH LOOKS TO BECOME
A BIT MORE SPOTTY TUE NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED FOR MOST OF THIS
PERIOD. WILL SEE CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. NOT A LOT
OF QPF TO DEAL WITH...MORE NUISANCE SNOW BUT COULD STILL SEE LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH MIDDAY WED. AS UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE
TROUGHING STARTS TO FLATTEN...NOTING AN ARCTIC FRONT IN THE NW
FLOW. EXPECT TO CROSS THE REGION LATE WED NIGHT OR EARLY
THU...WHICH WILL BE A DRY PASSAGE. EXPECT NW WINDS TO PICK UP ON
THU ALONG AS ARCTIC AIRMASS SHIFTS SE. HIGHS THU WILL ONLY BE IN
THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...EXPECT DRY TO VERY COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE.
ANOTHER REINFORCING ARCTIC FRONT CROSSES FRI NIGHT...WITH EVEN
COLDER AIR MOVING IN. CURRENT FORECAST SUGGESTS HIGHS ON SATURDAY
RUNNING AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS FOR MID FEBRUARY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SW WINDS MAY GUST TO 20 KT IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF BERKSHIRE COUNTY AND THE WORCESTER HILLS.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
BECOMING NE TOWARD SUNSET.

SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR AND DRY THRU ABOUT MIDNIGHT. THEN LOWERING TO
MVFR WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SNOW OR MIX RAIN/SNOW TOWARD
DAYBREAK MON. NE WINDS GUSTING UP TO 35 KT CAPE COD AND ISLANDS
TOWARD 12Z MON.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE THRU SUN EVENING THEN LOWERING
LATE SUN NIGHT REGARDING ARRIVAL OF LOWER CIGS/VSBYS IN SNOW/RAIN.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MONDAY-TUESDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/IFR VSBYS IN -SN ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.
LOWEST CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS E MA/RI...WHERE THEY MAY SEE
PERIODS OF MODERATE SNOW IN OCEAN EFFECT ESPECIALLY SE COASTAL MA
/PLYMOUTH COUNTY/...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS LATE MON AND MON
NIGHT. MAY SEE MIXED -RN-SN ALONG E COAST TUE AFTERNOON. NE WIND
GUSTS UP TO 35 KT MON INTO MON NIGHT ALONG IMMEDIATE E COASTAL
MA...DIMINISHING TO AROUND 25 KT TUE.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT -SHSN TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION AS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. MAY SEE MIX WITH -RA ALONG S COAST
WED AFTERNOON. COULD SEE PERIODS OF MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR
CIGS/VSBYS... MAINLY WED-WED NIGHT. CONDITIONS SHOULD SLOWLY
IMPROVE TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THU. N-NE WIND GUSTS
AROUND 25 KT EARLY WED WILL DIMINISH BY AROUND MIDDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OVERNIGHT...W TO SW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KT OVER THE EASTERN MA
WATERS...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING TOWARD DAYBREAK.

SUNDAY...TRANQUIL WIND AND SEAS ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER AND GOOD
VSBY.

SUNDAY NIGHT ... NE WINDS LIKELY INCREASE TO GALE FORCE ACROSS THE
RI AND SOUTHERN MA WATERS. THUS GALE WARNINGS POSTED. LOW
PROBABILITY NORTH OF CAPE COD SO GALE WATCHES POSTED THERE. VSBY
LOWERING IN SNOW LATE. SEAS WILL BUILD RAPIDLY WITH POWERFUL LOW
PRES OFF THE NC COAST COMBINING WITH 1035 MB SURFACE HIGH OVER
QUEBEC.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...

MONDAY...GALE CENTER WILL PASS WELL SE OF NANTUCKET...BUT GALE
FORCE GUSTS WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND WELL NW OF THE CENTER. NE
WINDS GUSTING TO 35-45 KT...HIGHEST E AND S OF CAPE COD AND
NANTUCKET... WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE MORNING THEN WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND MON NIGHT. SEAS UP TO 14-18 FT
ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE MON AFTERNOON.
VSBY RESTRICTIONS FOR AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW MON-MON
NIGHT.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME. NE WINDS IN PLACE TUE AND TUE NIGHT...GUSTING UP
TO 25-30 KT...WITH SEAS UP TO 8-11 FT. EXPECT WINDS TO BACK TO
N-NW WITH GUSTS CONTINUING AT AROUND 25 KT. SEAS WILL BUILD AGAIN
ON TUESDAY...HIGHEST E AND S OF NANTUCKET...UP TO 9-14 KT AS
ANOTHER LOW PASSES SE OF NANTUCKET. VSBY RESTRICTIONS CONTINUE FOR
LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW.

THURSDAY...NW WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST UP TO 25-30 KT. LOW RISK OF
GUSTS UP TO 35 KT THU NIGHT E AND S OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET.
SEAS UP TO 7-11 FT ON THE SE OUTER WATERS. LOCAL VSBY RESTRICTIONS
IN SCT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS...BUT SHOULD IMPROVE THU
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRO TIDES LATE MON MORNING ARE HIGH WITH 11.2 FT AT BOSTON.
STRONG NE WINDS UP TO 40 KT WILL YIELD A STORM SURGE OF 1.5 FT TO
2.0 FT AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG WAVE
ACTION OF 12-18 FT JUST OFFSHORE WILL YIELD A RISK OF MODERATE
COASTAL FLOODING.

ETSS WAS A BIT HIGHER THAN ESTOFS AND SEEMS REASONABLE. WIND
FIELD DECREASES SUBSTANTIALLY NORTH OF PLYMOUTH COUNTY. THUS
THREAT OF COASTAL FLOODING IS LOWER FROM BOSTON NORTHWARD.
THEREFORE HAVE CONFINED THE COASTAL FLOOD WATCH SOUTH OF BOSTON
THRU PLYMOUTH TO CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET.

OTHER CONCERN IS BEACH EROSION GIVEN THE HIGH WATER LEVELS...STRONG
WAVE ACTION OVER MULTIPLE TIDE CYCLES. AGAIN APPEARS HIGHEST RISK
WILL BE SOUTH OF BOSTON. HOWEVER WILL HAVE TO MONITOR LATER MODEL
RUNS FOR POSSIBLE EXPANSION OF THE WATCH NORTHWARD.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MAZ019-022-024.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR MAZ005>007-012>024.
RI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR RIZ001-002-004-005-007.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ231>235-237-254>256.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ230.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ236.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ250-251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVT/GAF
NEAR TERM...EVT/GAF
SHORT TERM...GAF
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...EVT/GAF
MARINE...EVT/GAF
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KOKX 070925
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
425 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY.
INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST US COAST WILL TRACK
SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. AN ACTIVE WINTER
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS SEVERAL WAVES OF
LOW PRESSURE POSSIBLY IMPACT THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE MAY RETURN AT
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SPLIT FLOW TODAY AS SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH PIVOTS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. VIGOROUS NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE UPPER MID
WEST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THE SFC...OUR AREA WILL BE
SANDWICHED BETWEEN DEEP LOW MOVING OFF THE SE COAST AND ANOTHER
STRONG LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS THE UPPER MID WEST. RIDGE
EXTENDS BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS ACROSS THE AREA.

AFTER MORNING PATCHY FOG OFF SNOW PACK...A DRY AND SUNNY DAY IS
EXPECTED AS TEMPS RISE INTO THE 40S...THANKS TO WAA IN SW
FLOW...PER MOS AND FORECAST SOUNDING DATA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IN GENERAL...EXPECT INTERMITTENT LIGHT SNOW...POSSIBLY MODERATE AT
TIMES...THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT. EXACT
DETAILS AND TIMING REMAIN UNCERTAIN...BUT DO EXPECT UNSETTLED
WEATHER.

DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AS IT TRACKS
NORTHEAST...WITH NEXT VIGOROUS TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION TOWARD THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY TUESDAY.

AS THE INITIAL ATLANTIC SFC LOW DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST
MONDAY...NEXT LOW SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...WITH SECOND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT SOMEWHERE OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY. THIS LOW PULLS AWAY TO THE EAST WITH
NORLUN TROUGH LINGERING W/NWWD OVER THE AREA.

AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...DRY THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT...WITH SNOW APPROACHING LONG ISLAND LATE TONIGHT. ON
MONDAY...NOT SURE HOW FAR WEST THIS SNOW EXTENDS...BUT BEST CHANCE
FOR ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE ACROSS ERN LONG ISLAND...SE CT. THEN
EXPECT LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPMENT LATE MONDAY...MONDAY NIGHT AS UPPER
TROUGH/NEXT SFC LOW APPROACHES...RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT LIFT.

INTERMITTENT SNOW IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AS MENTIONED. A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY.

TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TONIGHT...RANGING FROM THE MID
20S INLAND TO THE MID 30S IN AND AROUND NYC.

WITH CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SNOW MOVING IN MONDAY...TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE
TO RISE MUCH...EXCEPT NW ZONES WHERE DRIER AIR IS MORE LIKELY TO
HOLD.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...NEAR NORMAL TEMPS ARE ANTICIPATED.

AS FOR SNOW AMOUNTS...NAM AND SREF STILL THE WETTER SOLUTIONS WHEN
COMPARED TO GFS AND ECMWF. PER COLLAB WITH WPC AND SURROUNDING
OFFICES...AGREE WITH A LIKELY SCENARIO OF A DUSTING TO COUPLE
INCHES ACROSS NYC METRO AND POINTS WEST AND 2 TO 5 INCHES TOWARDS
EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND SE CT MONDAY. OF COURSE AMOUNTS COULD BE
HIGHER IF NAM/SREF MEAN SCENARIO PANS OUT.

ADDITIONAL ACCUMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...MAINLY
LIGHT AMOUNTS. HOWEVER...ANY SNOW BANDS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS...WHICH IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO PIN POINT WHERE THEY
WOULD SET UP ATTM. GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH POTENTIAL
MODERATE SNOW TUESDAY...WHEREAS MOST OTHER MODEL/ENSEMBLE
SOLUTIONS PRODUCE MUCH LIGHTER QPF/SNOW.

BELIEVE A 2 TO 6 INCH SNOWFALL IS THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IF YOU
COMBINE THE TWO SYSTEMS...WHICH MAKES SENSE SINCE MINIMAL BREAK
IN PRECIP IS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH TIMES OF LIGHT SNOW IS LIKELY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES...AND NORLUN TROUGH LINGERS
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE AREA BEHIND ATLANTIC LOW.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT ANOMALOUS TROUGH IS LIKELY TO REMAIN
OVERHEAD. IN FACT...A SECOND LOW MAY DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE AREA
TUE NIGHT.

CANNOT RULE OUT LIGHT SNOW WEDNESDAY...BUT FOR NOW IT APPEARS BEST
LIFT SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA. UPPER TROF AXIS SHIFTS EAST THURSDAY.
POPS TAPER DOWN TO CHANCE WEDNESDAY AND THEN SLIGHT CHANCE ON
THURSDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS DEEP UPPER LOW SETS UP ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CANADA. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH DRY AS BEST MOISTURE AXIS HAS
SHIFTED OFFSHORE FROM EARLIER WEEK ACTIVITY. ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS INTO
THE AREA SATURDAY. THE 12Z ECMWF HAS 850 HPA TEMPS DROPPING TO
BETWEEN -22C TO -26C.

FORECAST TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE LONG
TERM...WITH INCREASING PROBABILITY OF A SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR AND WELL
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AT THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS OVER THE AREA TODAY. MEANWHILE...LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL TRACK TO THE
NORTHEAST...PASSING SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND ON MONDAY.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST...ALTHOUGH TIMING OF
WINDS SHIFTING TO THE E/SE MAY BE 1-2 HOURS OFF.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.TONIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER DEVELOPING ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KSWF.
HIGHEST CHC AT SE CT/E LONG ISLAND TERMINALS. NE WINDS G20-30+KT
POSSIBLE. HIGHEST GUSTS EAST.
.MON...MVFR OR LOWER LIKELY EAST/POSSIBLE WEST IN SNOW. NE-N
WINDS G20-30KT WEST AND 30-40KT EAST POSSIBLE.
.MON NIGHT-TUE NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER LIKELY IN SNOW. MIXED
PCPN POSSIBLE AT COAST DURING THE DAY ON TUE. N-NE WINDS G15-25KT
POSSIBLE MON NIGHT-TUE.
.WED-THU...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN -SN. W-NW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE
WED NIGHT-THU.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRES WEAKENS OVER THE AREA TODAY AS INTENSIFYING LOW PRES
OFF THE SE COAST TRACKS N THEN NE PASSING SE OF LONG ISLAND ON
MONDAY. NE WINDS DEVELOP AND INCREASE THIS EVENING. MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 35 KT GUSTS ARE LIKELY ON AT LEAST PORTIONS OF
THE OCEAN WATERS W OF FIRE ISLAND INLET AND EASTERN LI
SOUND/BAYS...THEREFORE HAVE CONVERTED THE GALE WATCH TO A WARNING
HERE. REST OF HEADLINES REMAIN UNCHANGED.

GALE FORCE WINDS MAY DIMINISH ON ALL BUT THE OCEAN WATERS E OF
MORICHES INLET DURING THE AFTN ON MON...BUT HAVE KEPT THE END TIME
AT 23Z FOR ALL ZONES TO ALLOW FOR SOME WIGGLE ROOM. SCA WINDS MAY
THEN LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE EVE...HOWEVER WINDS SHOULD COME
DOWN FAIRLY QUICKLY AS THE STORM DEPARTS AND THE PRES GRADIENT
RELAXES. SEAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN AOA 5 FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS IMPACT THE
WATERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

SUB-ADVSY WINDS PREVAIL TUE NIGHT INTO WED...BUT THEN INCREASE
AGAIN WED NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY THU WITH SCA POSSIBLE ON ALL
WATERS. GUSTS ON THE OCEAN WATERS MAY EVEN REACH GALE FORCE THU
AFTN AND EVE...BUT SINCE IT APPEARS MARGINAL ATTM WILL REFRAIN
FROM INCLUDING IN THE HWO.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL SOUTHEAST TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY...QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER LOW TUESDAY THAT WILL BE
CLOSER. A TROUGH LINGERS NEARBY TUE NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

DUE TO PROLONGED UNSETTLED PRECIP EVENT...OVERALL QPF SHOULD
AVERAGE FROM A TENTH OF AN INCH TO CLOSE TO A HALF AN INCH...FROM NW
TO SE. MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS LIKELY TO BE
IN THE FORM OF SNOW. NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
POTENTIAL FOR MINOR COASTAL IMPACTS MONDAY INTO MIDWEEK WITH A NEW
MOON ON MONDAY AND A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURES AFFECTING THE REGION.

AN INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN NE/N WINDS INCREASING TO
POTENTIALLY GALE FORCE SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO MONDAY.
BASED ON A TRACK OF INTENSIFYING LOW THAT SHOULD BE SE OF THE
40/70 LAT/LON BENCHMARK AND COLD AIR DAMMING SIGNATURE...WOULD
EXPECT POTENTIAL FOR WINDS TO BE BACKED MORE TO THE N THAN NE.
THIS WOULD FAVOR THE LOWER SURGE GUIDANCE FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT HIGH TIDE CYCLES...WHICH WOULD KEEP IMPACTS MINOR AND
LIKELY LIMITED TO THE MOST VULNERABLE LOCALES. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR.

AS WE HEAD INTO TUESDAYS HIGH TIDE CYCLES...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
WINDS TO VEER MORE TO THE NE AS ADDITIONAL WAVE/S OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACK TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. THE SPRING ASTRONOMICAL TIDES
AND MULTI-TIDAL CYCLE NATURE OF THE EVENT WILL FAVOR ADDITIONAL
MINOR FLOODING...WITH POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD MINOR TO MODERATE
IMPACTS IN THE BACK BAY AREAS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR ANZ335-338-345.
     GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ330-340-350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PW
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...DS/PW
AVIATION...24
MARINE...24
HYDROLOGY...PW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KALY 070913
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
413 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND
TONIGHT AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN CANADA WILL BUILD IN. TONIGHT
INTO THE MIDWEEK A LARGE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SETTLE INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL SET UP THE REGION FOR A PERIOD
OF TYPICAL FEBRUARY WEATHER...CLOUDY...COLD WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT
SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR SEVERAL DAYS...AS TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS AT
THIS TIME SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUDS IN NORTHERN AREAS IS ERODING AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DECREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE MORNING. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
SLOWLY DROP SOUTH OUT OF CANADA AND SOME OF THE CLOUD COVER COULD
REDEVELOP OVER NORTHERN AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT BUT SUNSHINE WILL HELP
TEMPERATURES REACH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S...SOME 30S IN
NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING
AND WITH A PARTLY CLOUDY TO CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT NORTH TO CALM
WINDS DURING THE EVENING...TEMPERATURES COULD DROP SHARPLY BEFORE
CLOUDS SPREAD OVER THE REGION TOWARD MIDNIGHT AND THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS OF MONDAY. LOWS IN THE 20S MOST AREAS...AROUND
20 NORTHERN AREAS.

COMPLEX EVOLUTION TO THE UPPER PATTERN AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
FEATURES MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE
SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE AS TO THE TRACK...TIMING AND COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES. THERE IS A GENERAL
CONSENSUS THAT THE STRONGER UPPER DYNAMICS...FORCING AND DEEPER
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM LARGELY MISSES
OUR FORECAST AREA TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

HOWEVER...DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM UPPER ENERGY INTERACTING WITH
GREAT LAKES MOISTURE COULD ALSO DRAW SOME INDIRECT MOISTURE FROM
THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM. ALSO...THE LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME EAST
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AND MOISTURE ON THE VERY NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM COULD ADVECT INTO WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND AND EASTERN NY. SO...ALL THIS SUGGESTS MORE CLOUDS
THAN SUN MONDAY....ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS...BUT
SOME INTERVALS OF BREAKS AND THINNING OF CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY IN
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S.

THEN...AT LEAST CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW IN MANY AREAS BY
MONDAY NIGHT. BETTER CHANCES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT BUT THE
STRONGER SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS AND
MOISTURE SHOULD BE GONE BY THEN. SO...WITH LESS DEEP MOISTURE BUT
STRONG NORTHERN STREAM UPPER DYNAMICS AND SOME GREAT LAKES
MOISTURE...THERE COULD STILL BE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW
THROUGH THE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT PERIOD.

AT THIS TIME THE BEST CHANCES FOR AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW WOULD BE
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...SOUTHERN TACONICS AND BERKSHIRES BUT
DUSTINGS TO AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE IN EASTERN NEW YORK
AND SOUTHERN VT. AGAIN...THERE IS STILL QUITE A SPREAD IN GUIDANCE
AND DETAILS WILL GET CLEARER AS WE GET CLOSER. HIGHS TUESDAY IN
THE 30S...WITH AROUND 30 NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WEDNESDAY WITH OUR REGION UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A SPRAWLING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS COVERING THE GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHEAST. DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE DIGGING
SOUTH OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ALONG WITH A SLOW MOVING SURFACE
ARCTIC BOUNDARY...WILL FOCUS SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. WILL
MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE AREA...WITH LIKELY ACROSS
HERKIMER COUNTY WHERE LAKE MOISTURE COULD LOCALLY ENHANCE SNOWFALL.
AT THIS TIME ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE LIGHT DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE
AND LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT BAROCLINICITY.

THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL LIKELY PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...AND WILL USHER IN MUCH
COLDER AIR. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE BELOW NORMAL FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN THE MOST
PROLONGED PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THUS FAR THIS WINTER.
CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH HIGHER PROBABILITY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

OVER THE WEEKEND MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR EVEN
COLDER TEMPERATURES...AS AN ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS SOUTH FROM CANADA. A
FRIGID AIR MASS WOULD TAKE HOLD...WHICH WOULD EASILY RESULT IN THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WINTER. CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL
ALSO DECREASE OVER THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE FLOW BECOMING NORTHERLY
AND THE AIR MASS VERY DRY. VERY LOW WIND CHILLS VALUES MAY ACCOMPANY
THE COLD AS WELL DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH WIND THERE IS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT THE KALB/KPOU/KPSF/KGFL
TERMINALS THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD ENDING 06Z MONDAY.

SATELLITE IMAGERY STILL SHOWING QUITE A BIT OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS
FROM AROUND KALB NORTHWARD EARLY THIS MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION BKN CIGS FOR ALL SITES BUT KPOU...WHERE SKIES SHOULD
REMAIN CLEAR. GRADUAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED LATER IN THE
MORNING...AS AN AREA OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...BECOMING VARIABLE BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO CONCERNS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS AS
ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...NAS




000
FXUS61 KBOX 070701
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
201 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY. AN OCEAN STORM MAY BRING A PLOWABLE
SNOWFALL TO SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW ARE
LIKELY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO THURSDAY.
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT BRINGS BITTERLY COLD CONDITIONS THE END OF
THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
2 AM UPDATE... NOT MUCH CHANGE. SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR AND
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 20S WITH LOWER TO MID 30S ALONG THE SOUTH
COASTS OF RI AND MA. WINDS HAVE LIGHTENED UP AND WERE GENERALLY
LESS THAN 10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
SUNDAY ...

NOT MUCH CHANGE WITH CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRES AT THE
SURFACE. THUS EXPECTING A DRY COLUMN SUPPORTING LOTS OF SUNSHINE
AND LIGHT WINDS...WHICH WILL MAKE TEMPS IN THE L40S FEEL EVEN
MILDER.

SUNDAY NIGHT ...

1035 QUEBEC SURFACE HIGH ADVECTS SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR SOUTHWARD
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MEANWHILE MID LEVEL SOUTHERN STREAM
TROUGH OVER THE GULF STATES THIS AFTERNOON INDUCES CYCLOGENESIS
OFF THE EAST COAST OF FL THIS EVENING AND THEN RAPIDLY
INTENSIFYING INTO A SUB 980 MB LOW/GALE CENTER WELL EAST OF THE
NC COAST SUN NIGHT. TYPICALLY THIS TRACK IS TOO FAR OFFSHORE TO
YIELD ACCUMULATING SNOW TO SOUTHEAST MA. HOWEVER THIS CYCLONE HAS
A VERY LARGE CIRCULATION/WCB/FIREHOSE IN ADDITION TO 1035 MB
SURFACE HIGH OVER QUEBEC. THUS SNOW COMES ONSHORE 06Z-12 MON AND
WILL LIKELY HAVE SOME OCEAN EFFECT SNOW /OES/ COMPONENT GIVEN NE
WINDS AND SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR BLEEDING IN FROM THE NORTH. BIG
DIFFERENCES WITH MODEL QPF WITH NAM/ARW/NMM MOST ROBUST. EC/GFS
AND RGEM MORE MODEST SO FOLLOWED A MODEL BLEND GIVEN UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DISCUSSION...
AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE FOR MUCH
IF NOT ALL OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THOUGH SIGNS CONTINUE TO SHOW
SOME DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH LATER THIS WEEK
ACROSS THE EAST. MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SIGNAL UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS THROUGH WED AND POSSIBLY INTO THU...THEN WILL START TO
SETTLE DOWN. HOWEVER...LOOKS LIKE WINTER TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH
IN WITH THE DRIER CONDITIONS LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

STILL PROBLEMS WITH SEPARATION BETWEEN SHORT WAVES IN THE OVERALL
CUTOFF LOW PRES/LONG WAVE TROUGH MON-WED...THOUGH DOES LOOK LIKE
SOME SETTLING IN WITH SOME OF THE DETAILS. HOWEVER...WITH UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE...WILL STILL SEE PERIODS OF PRECIP
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.

USED A BLEND OF MOST OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE ALONG WITH
ENSEMBLES WHICH GAVE REASONABLE CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

DETAILS...

MONDAY-TUESDAY...MODELS SETTLING IN WITH CONTINUE NE FLOW IN
PLACE. FIRST LOW PRES PASSES WELL SE OF NANTUCKET...BUT
COMBINATION OF THIS STRONG STORM /CENTRAL PRES FROM 970-978 HPA AS
IT PASSES MON AFTERNOON/ AND HIGH PRES RIDGING EXTENDING S OUT OF
QUEBEC ACROSS W NEW ENGLAND...VERY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT IN PLACE.
THIS WILL PRODUCE STRONG NE WINDS ACROSS E COASTAL
AREAS...GENERALLY S OF BOSTON. GUSTS MAY REACH UP TO 35-45 MPH
ALONG E COASTAL AREAS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...THEN WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH.

MODELS DO KEEP PUSHING NW FRINGE OF PRECIP INTO EASTERN AND
POSSIBLY CENTRAL AREAS...PLUS WILL LIKELY SEE COMBINATION OF OCEAN
EFFECT SNOW. NOTING AT LEAST CONDITIONAL CONDITIONS FOR LAKE
EFFECT ON BOTH GFS AND 4 KM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS LATE MON/MON NIGHT.

DID HAVE ISSUES WITH QPF FORECAST...THOUGH WITH STRONG ONSHORE
WINDS SHOULD SEE SOME ENHANCEMENT THERE. USED A BLEND OF WPC
GUIDANCE... 12Z GFS AND A TOUCH OF THE 15Z SREF...WITH HIGHEST
AMOUNTS ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z MONDAY WITH
INITIAL SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS LOW PASSES.

WITH THE COMBINATION OF INITIAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRONG
ONSHORE WINDS ENHANCING THE PRECIPITATION...EXPECT TO SEE BEST
CHANCE FOR SNOW ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS INTO PLYMOUTH
COUNTY. PARTIAL THICKNESSES SUPPORT MAINLY SNOW...THOUGH COULD SEE
SOME MIX WITH RAIN DURING TUESDAY WITH LIGHTER PRECIP. BASED ON
THIS...HAVE ISSUED WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THOSE AREAS MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF BUT NOT TOTALLY END DURING TUESDAY AS
UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL SITS CLOSE TO THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP
CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE AND KEEPING LIGHT SNOWFALL IN PLACE. WILL
LIKELY ALSO SEE A MIX WITH RAIN ALONG THE S COAST. BEST SHOT FOR
PRECIP WILL REMAIN ACROSS S COASTAL AREAS...THOUGH LOOKS TO BECOME
A BIT MORE SPOTTY TUE NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED FOR MOST OF THIS
PERIOD. WILL SEE CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. NOT A LOT
OF QPF TO DEAL WITH...MORE NUISANCE SNOW BUT COULD STILL SEE LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH MIDDAY WED. AS UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE
TROUGHING STARTS TO FLATTEN...NOTING AN ARCTIC FRONT IN THE NW
FLOW. EXPECT TO CROSS THE REGION LATE WED NIGHT OR EARLY
THU...WHICH WILL BE A DRY PASSAGE. EXPECT NW WINDS TO PICK UP ON
THU ALONG AS ARCTIC AIRMASS SHIFTS SE. HIGHS THU WILL ONLY BE IN
THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...EXPECT DRY TO VERY COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE.
ANOTHER REINFORCING ARCTIC FRONT CROSSES FRI NIGHT...WITH EVEN
COLDER AIR MOVING IN. CURRENT FORECAST SUGGESTS HIGHS ON SATURDAY
RUNNING AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS FOR MID FEBRUARY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SW WINDS MAY GUST TO 20 KT IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF BERKSHIRE COUNTY AND THE WORCESTER HILLS.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
BECOMING NE TOWARD SUNSET.

SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR AND DRY THRU ABOUT MIDNIGHT. THEN LOWERING TO
MVFR WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SNOW OR MIX RAIN/SNOW TOWARD
DAYBREAK MON. NE WINDS GUSTING UP TO 35 KT CAPE COD AND ISLANDS
TOWARD 12Z MON.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE THRU SUN EVENING THEN LOWERING
LATE SUN NIGHT REGARDING ARRIVAL OF LOWER CIGS/VSBYS IN SNOW/RAIN.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MONDAY-TUESDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/IFR VSBYS IN -SN ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.
LOWEST CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS E MA/RI...WHERE THEY MAY SEE
PERIODS OF MODERATE SNOW IN OCEAN EFFECT ESPECIALLY SE COASTAL MA
/PLYMOUTH COUNTY/...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS LATE MON AND MON
NIGHT. MAY SEE MIXED -RN-SN ALONG E COAST TUE AFTERNOON. NE WIND
GUSTS UP TO 35 KT MON INTO MON NIGHT ALONG IMMEDIATE E COASTAL
MA...DIMINISHING TO AROUND 25 KT TUE.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT -SHSN TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION AS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. MAY SEE MIX WITH -RA ALONG S COAST
WED AFTERNOON. COULD SEE PERIODS OF MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR
CIGS/VSBYS... MAINLY WED-WED NIGHT. CONDITIONS SHOULD SLOWLY
IMPROVE TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THU. N-NE WIND GUSTS
AROUND 25 KT EARLY WED WILL DIMINISH BY AROUND MIDDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OVERNIGHT...W TO SW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KT OVER THE EASTERN MA
WATERS...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING TOWARD DAYBREAK.

SUNDAY...TRANQUIL WIND AND SEAS ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER AND GOOD
VSBY.

SUNDAY NIGHT ... NE WINDS LIKELY INCREASE TO GALE FORCE ACROSS THE
RI AND SOUTHERN MA WATERS. THUS GALE WARNINGS POSTED. LOW
PROBABILITY NORTH OF CAPE COD SO GALE WATCHES POSTED THERE. VSBY
LOWERING IN SNOW LATE. SEAS WILL BUILD RAPIDLY WITH POWERFUL LOW
PRES OFF THE NC COAST COMBINING WITH 1035 MB SURFACE HIGH OVER
QUEBEC.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...

MONDAY...GALE CENTER WILL PASS WELL SE OF NANTUCKET...BUT GALE
FORCE GUSTS WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND WELL NW OF THE CENTER. NE
WINDS GUSTING TO 35-45 KT...HIGHEST E AND S OF CAPE COD AND
NANTUCKET... WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE MORNING THEN WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND MON NIGHT. SEAS UP TO 14-18 FT
ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE MON AFTERNOON.
VSBY RESTRICTIONS FOR AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW MON-MON
NIGHT.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME. NE WINDS IN PLACE TUE AND TUE NIGHT...GUSTING UP
TO 25-30 KT...WITH SEAS UP TO 8-11 FT. EXPECT WINDS TO BACK TO
N-NW WITH GUSTS CONTINUING AT AROUND 25 KT. SEAS WILL BUILD AGAIN
ON TUESDAY...HIGHEST E AND S OF NANTUCKET...UP TO 9-14 KT AS
ANOTHER LOW PASSES SE OF NANTUCKET. VSBY RESTRICTIONS CONTINUE FOR
LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW.

THURSDAY...NW WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST UP TO 25-30 KT. LOW RISK OF
GUSTS UP TO 35 KT THU NIGHT E AND S OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET.
SEAS UP TO 7-11 FT ON THE SE OUTER WATERS. LOCAL VSBY RESTRICTIONS
IN SCT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS...BUT SHOULD IMPROVE THU
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRO TIDES LATE MON MORNING ARE HIGH WITH 11.2 FT AT BOSTON.
STRONG NE WINDS UP TO 40 KT WILL YIELD A STORM SURGE OF 1.5 FT TO
2.0 FT AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG WAVE
ACTION OF 12-18 FT JUST OFFSHORE WILL YIELD A RISK OF MODERATE
COASTAL FLOODING.

ETSS WAS A BIT HIGHER THAN ESTOFS AND SEEMS REASONABLE. WIND
FIELD DECREASES SUBSTANTIALLY NORTH OF PLYMOUTH COUNTY. THUS
THREAT OF COASTAL FLOODING IS LOWER FROM BOSTON NORTHWARD.
THEREFORE HAVE CONFINED THE COASTAL FLOOD WATCH SOUTH OF BOSTON
THRU PLYMOUTH TO CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET.

OTHER CONCERN IS BEACH EROSION GIVEN THE HIGH WATER LEVELS...STRONG
WAVE ACTION OVER MULTIPLE TIDE CYCLES. AGAIN APPEARS HIGHEST RISK
WILL BE SOUTH OF BOSTON. HOWEVER WILL HAVE TO MONITOR LATER MODEL
RUNS FOR POSSIBLE EXPANSION OF THE WATCH NORTHWARD.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MAZ019-022-024.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR MAZ018-019-021>024.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ231>235-237-254>256.
     GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ230-250-251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/EVT
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/EVT/GAF
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...NOCERA/EVT/GAF
MARINE...NOCERA/EVT/GAF
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NOCERA



000
FXUS61 KBOX 070701
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
201 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY. AN OCEAN STORM MAY BRING A PLOWABLE
SNOWFALL TO SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW ARE
LIKELY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO THURSDAY.
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT BRINGS BITTERLY COLD CONDITIONS THE END OF
THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
2 AM UPDATE... NOT MUCH CHANGE. SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR AND
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 20S WITH LOWER TO MID 30S ALONG THE SOUTH
COASTS OF RI AND MA. WINDS HAVE LIGHTENED UP AND WERE GENERALLY
LESS THAN 10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
SUNDAY ...

NOT MUCH CHANGE WITH CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRES AT THE
SURFACE. THUS EXPECTING A DRY COLUMN SUPPORTING LOTS OF SUNSHINE
AND LIGHT WINDS...WHICH WILL MAKE TEMPS IN THE L40S FEEL EVEN
MILDER.

SUNDAY NIGHT ...

1035 QUEBEC SURFACE HIGH ADVECTS SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR SOUTHWARD
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MEANWHILE MID LEVEL SOUTHERN STREAM
TROUGH OVER THE GULF STATES THIS AFTERNOON INDUCES CYCLOGENESIS
OFF THE EAST COAST OF FL THIS EVENING AND THEN RAPIDLY
INTENSIFYING INTO A SUB 980 MB LOW/GALE CENTER WELL EAST OF THE
NC COAST SUN NIGHT. TYPICALLY THIS TRACK IS TOO FAR OFFSHORE TO
YIELD ACCUMULATING SNOW TO SOUTHEAST MA. HOWEVER THIS CYCLONE HAS
A VERY LARGE CIRCULATION/WCB/FIREHOSE IN ADDITION TO 1035 MB
SURFACE HIGH OVER QUEBEC. THUS SNOW COMES ONSHORE 06Z-12 MON AND
WILL LIKELY HAVE SOME OCEAN EFFECT SNOW /OES/ COMPONENT GIVEN NE
WINDS AND SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR BLEEDING IN FROM THE NORTH. BIG
DIFFERENCES WITH MODEL QPF WITH NAM/ARW/NMM MOST ROBUST. EC/GFS
AND RGEM MORE MODEST SO FOLLOWED A MODEL BLEND GIVEN UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DISCUSSION...
AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE FOR MUCH
IF NOT ALL OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THOUGH SIGNS CONTINUE TO SHOW
SOME DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH LATER THIS WEEK
ACROSS THE EAST. MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SIGNAL UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS THROUGH WED AND POSSIBLY INTO THU...THEN WILL START TO
SETTLE DOWN. HOWEVER...LOOKS LIKE WINTER TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH
IN WITH THE DRIER CONDITIONS LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

STILL PROBLEMS WITH SEPARATION BETWEEN SHORT WAVES IN THE OVERALL
CUTOFF LOW PRES/LONG WAVE TROUGH MON-WED...THOUGH DOES LOOK LIKE
SOME SETTLING IN WITH SOME OF THE DETAILS. HOWEVER...WITH UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE...WILL STILL SEE PERIODS OF PRECIP
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.

USED A BLEND OF MOST OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE ALONG WITH
ENSEMBLES WHICH GAVE REASONABLE CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

DETAILS...

MONDAY-TUESDAY...MODELS SETTLING IN WITH CONTINUE NE FLOW IN
PLACE. FIRST LOW PRES PASSES WELL SE OF NANTUCKET...BUT
COMBINATION OF THIS STRONG STORM /CENTRAL PRES FROM 970-978 HPA AS
IT PASSES MON AFTERNOON/ AND HIGH PRES RIDGING EXTENDING S OUT OF
QUEBEC ACROSS W NEW ENGLAND...VERY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT IN PLACE.
THIS WILL PRODUCE STRONG NE WINDS ACROSS E COASTAL
AREAS...GENERALLY S OF BOSTON. GUSTS MAY REACH UP TO 35-45 MPH
ALONG E COASTAL AREAS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...THEN WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH.

MODELS DO KEEP PUSHING NW FRINGE OF PRECIP INTO EASTERN AND
POSSIBLY CENTRAL AREAS...PLUS WILL LIKELY SEE COMBINATION OF OCEAN
EFFECT SNOW. NOTING AT LEAST CONDITIONAL CONDITIONS FOR LAKE
EFFECT ON BOTH GFS AND 4 KM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS LATE MON/MON NIGHT.

DID HAVE ISSUES WITH QPF FORECAST...THOUGH WITH STRONG ONSHORE
WINDS SHOULD SEE SOME ENHANCEMENT THERE. USED A BLEND OF WPC
GUIDANCE... 12Z GFS AND A TOUCH OF THE 15Z SREF...WITH HIGHEST
AMOUNTS ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z MONDAY WITH
INITIAL SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS LOW PASSES.

WITH THE COMBINATION OF INITIAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRONG
ONSHORE WINDS ENHANCING THE PRECIPITATION...EXPECT TO SEE BEST
CHANCE FOR SNOW ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS INTO PLYMOUTH
COUNTY. PARTIAL THICKNESSES SUPPORT MAINLY SNOW...THOUGH COULD SEE
SOME MIX WITH RAIN DURING TUESDAY WITH LIGHTER PRECIP. BASED ON
THIS...HAVE ISSUED WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THOSE AREAS MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF BUT NOT TOTALLY END DURING TUESDAY AS
UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL SITS CLOSE TO THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP
CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE AND KEEPING LIGHT SNOWFALL IN PLACE. WILL
LIKELY ALSO SEE A MIX WITH RAIN ALONG THE S COAST. BEST SHOT FOR
PRECIP WILL REMAIN ACROSS S COASTAL AREAS...THOUGH LOOKS TO BECOME
A BIT MORE SPOTTY TUE NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED FOR MOST OF THIS
PERIOD. WILL SEE CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. NOT A LOT
OF QPF TO DEAL WITH...MORE NUISANCE SNOW BUT COULD STILL SEE LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH MIDDAY WED. AS UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE
TROUGHING STARTS TO FLATTEN...NOTING AN ARCTIC FRONT IN THE NW
FLOW. EXPECT TO CROSS THE REGION LATE WED NIGHT OR EARLY
THU...WHICH WILL BE A DRY PASSAGE. EXPECT NW WINDS TO PICK UP ON
THU ALONG AS ARCTIC AIRMASS SHIFTS SE. HIGHS THU WILL ONLY BE IN
THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...EXPECT DRY TO VERY COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE.
ANOTHER REINFORCING ARCTIC FRONT CROSSES FRI NIGHT...WITH EVEN
COLDER AIR MOVING IN. CURRENT FORECAST SUGGESTS HIGHS ON SATURDAY
RUNNING AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS FOR MID FEBRUARY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SW WINDS MAY GUST TO 20 KT IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF BERKSHIRE COUNTY AND THE WORCESTER HILLS.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
BECOMING NE TOWARD SUNSET.

SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR AND DRY THRU ABOUT MIDNIGHT. THEN LOWERING TO
MVFR WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SNOW OR MIX RAIN/SNOW TOWARD
DAYBREAK MON. NE WINDS GUSTING UP TO 35 KT CAPE COD AND ISLANDS
TOWARD 12Z MON.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE THRU SUN EVENING THEN LOWERING
LATE SUN NIGHT REGARDING ARRIVAL OF LOWER CIGS/VSBYS IN SNOW/RAIN.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MONDAY-TUESDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/IFR VSBYS IN -SN ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.
LOWEST CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS E MA/RI...WHERE THEY MAY SEE
PERIODS OF MODERATE SNOW IN OCEAN EFFECT ESPECIALLY SE COASTAL MA
/PLYMOUTH COUNTY/...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS LATE MON AND MON
NIGHT. MAY SEE MIXED -RN-SN ALONG E COAST TUE AFTERNOON. NE WIND
GUSTS UP TO 35 KT MON INTO MON NIGHT ALONG IMMEDIATE E COASTAL
MA...DIMINISHING TO AROUND 25 KT TUE.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT -SHSN TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION AS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. MAY SEE MIX WITH -RA ALONG S COAST
WED AFTERNOON. COULD SEE PERIODS OF MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR
CIGS/VSBYS... MAINLY WED-WED NIGHT. CONDITIONS SHOULD SLOWLY
IMPROVE TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THU. N-NE WIND GUSTS
AROUND 25 KT EARLY WED WILL DIMINISH BY AROUND MIDDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OVERNIGHT...W TO SW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KT OVER THE EASTERN MA
WATERS...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING TOWARD DAYBREAK.

SUNDAY...TRANQUIL WIND AND SEAS ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER AND GOOD
VSBY.

SUNDAY NIGHT ... NE WINDS LIKELY INCREASE TO GALE FORCE ACROSS THE
RI AND SOUTHERN MA WATERS. THUS GALE WARNINGS POSTED. LOW
PROBABILITY NORTH OF CAPE COD SO GALE WATCHES POSTED THERE. VSBY
LOWERING IN SNOW LATE. SEAS WILL BUILD RAPIDLY WITH POWERFUL LOW
PRES OFF THE NC COAST COMBINING WITH 1035 MB SURFACE HIGH OVER
QUEBEC.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...

MONDAY...GALE CENTER WILL PASS WELL SE OF NANTUCKET...BUT GALE
FORCE GUSTS WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND WELL NW OF THE CENTER. NE
WINDS GUSTING TO 35-45 KT...HIGHEST E AND S OF CAPE COD AND
NANTUCKET... WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE MORNING THEN WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND MON NIGHT. SEAS UP TO 14-18 FT
ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE MON AFTERNOON.
VSBY RESTRICTIONS FOR AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW MON-MON
NIGHT.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME. NE WINDS IN PLACE TUE AND TUE NIGHT...GUSTING UP
TO 25-30 KT...WITH SEAS UP TO 8-11 FT. EXPECT WINDS TO BACK TO
N-NW WITH GUSTS CONTINUING AT AROUND 25 KT. SEAS WILL BUILD AGAIN
ON TUESDAY...HIGHEST E AND S OF NANTUCKET...UP TO 9-14 KT AS
ANOTHER LOW PASSES SE OF NANTUCKET. VSBY RESTRICTIONS CONTINUE FOR
LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW.

THURSDAY...NW WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST UP TO 25-30 KT. LOW RISK OF
GUSTS UP TO 35 KT THU NIGHT E AND S OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET.
SEAS UP TO 7-11 FT ON THE SE OUTER WATERS. LOCAL VSBY RESTRICTIONS
IN SCT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS...BUT SHOULD IMPROVE THU
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRO TIDES LATE MON MORNING ARE HIGH WITH 11.2 FT AT BOSTON.
STRONG NE WINDS UP TO 40 KT WILL YIELD A STORM SURGE OF 1.5 FT TO
2.0 FT AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG WAVE
ACTION OF 12-18 FT JUST OFFSHORE WILL YIELD A RISK OF MODERATE
COASTAL FLOODING.

ETSS WAS A BIT HIGHER THAN ESTOFS AND SEEMS REASONABLE. WIND
FIELD DECREASES SUBSTANTIALLY NORTH OF PLYMOUTH COUNTY. THUS
THREAT OF COASTAL FLOODING IS LOWER FROM BOSTON NORTHWARD.
THEREFORE HAVE CONFINED THE COASTAL FLOOD WATCH SOUTH OF BOSTON
THRU PLYMOUTH TO CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET.

OTHER CONCERN IS BEACH EROSION GIVEN THE HIGH WATER LEVELS...STRONG
WAVE ACTION OVER MULTIPLE TIDE CYCLES. AGAIN APPEARS HIGHEST RISK
WILL BE SOUTH OF BOSTON. HOWEVER WILL HAVE TO MONITOR LATER MODEL
RUNS FOR POSSIBLE EXPANSION OF THE WATCH NORTHWARD.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MAZ019-022-024.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR MAZ018-019-021>024.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ231>235-237-254>256.
     GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ230-250-251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/EVT
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/EVT/GAF
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...NOCERA/EVT/GAF
MARINE...NOCERA/EVT/GAF
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NOCERA



000
FXUS61 KBOX 070701
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
201 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY. AN OCEAN STORM MAY BRING A PLOWABLE
SNOWFALL TO SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW ARE
LIKELY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO THURSDAY.
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT BRINGS BITTERLY COLD CONDITIONS THE END OF
THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
2 AM UPDATE... NOT MUCH CHANGE. SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR AND
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 20S WITH LOWER TO MID 30S ALONG THE SOUTH
COASTS OF RI AND MA. WINDS HAVE LIGHTENED UP AND WERE GENERALLY
LESS THAN 10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
SUNDAY ...

NOT MUCH CHANGE WITH CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRES AT THE
SURFACE. THUS EXPECTING A DRY COLUMN SUPPORTING LOTS OF SUNSHINE
AND LIGHT WINDS...WHICH WILL MAKE TEMPS IN THE L40S FEEL EVEN
MILDER.

SUNDAY NIGHT ...

1035 QUEBEC SURFACE HIGH ADVECTS SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR SOUTHWARD
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MEANWHILE MID LEVEL SOUTHERN STREAM
TROUGH OVER THE GULF STATES THIS AFTERNOON INDUCES CYCLOGENESIS
OFF THE EAST COAST OF FL THIS EVENING AND THEN RAPIDLY
INTENSIFYING INTO A SUB 980 MB LOW/GALE CENTER WELL EAST OF THE
NC COAST SUN NIGHT. TYPICALLY THIS TRACK IS TOO FAR OFFSHORE TO
YIELD ACCUMULATING SNOW TO SOUTHEAST MA. HOWEVER THIS CYCLONE HAS
A VERY LARGE CIRCULATION/WCB/FIREHOSE IN ADDITION TO 1035 MB
SURFACE HIGH OVER QUEBEC. THUS SNOW COMES ONSHORE 06Z-12 MON AND
WILL LIKELY HAVE SOME OCEAN EFFECT SNOW /OES/ COMPONENT GIVEN NE
WINDS AND SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR BLEEDING IN FROM THE NORTH. BIG
DIFFERENCES WITH MODEL QPF WITH NAM/ARW/NMM MOST ROBUST. EC/GFS
AND RGEM MORE MODEST SO FOLLOWED A MODEL BLEND GIVEN UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DISCUSSION...
AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE FOR MUCH
IF NOT ALL OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THOUGH SIGNS CONTINUE TO SHOW
SOME DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH LATER THIS WEEK
ACROSS THE EAST. MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SIGNAL UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS THROUGH WED AND POSSIBLY INTO THU...THEN WILL START TO
SETTLE DOWN. HOWEVER...LOOKS LIKE WINTER TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH
IN WITH THE DRIER CONDITIONS LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

STILL PROBLEMS WITH SEPARATION BETWEEN SHORT WAVES IN THE OVERALL
CUTOFF LOW PRES/LONG WAVE TROUGH MON-WED...THOUGH DOES LOOK LIKE
SOME SETTLING IN WITH SOME OF THE DETAILS. HOWEVER...WITH UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE...WILL STILL SEE PERIODS OF PRECIP
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.

USED A BLEND OF MOST OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE ALONG WITH
ENSEMBLES WHICH GAVE REASONABLE CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

DETAILS...

MONDAY-TUESDAY...MODELS SETTLING IN WITH CONTINUE NE FLOW IN
PLACE. FIRST LOW PRES PASSES WELL SE OF NANTUCKET...BUT
COMBINATION OF THIS STRONG STORM /CENTRAL PRES FROM 970-978 HPA AS
IT PASSES MON AFTERNOON/ AND HIGH PRES RIDGING EXTENDING S OUT OF
QUEBEC ACROSS W NEW ENGLAND...VERY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT IN PLACE.
THIS WILL PRODUCE STRONG NE WINDS ACROSS E COASTAL
AREAS...GENERALLY S OF BOSTON. GUSTS MAY REACH UP TO 35-45 MPH
ALONG E COASTAL AREAS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...THEN WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH.

MODELS DO KEEP PUSHING NW FRINGE OF PRECIP INTO EASTERN AND
POSSIBLY CENTRAL AREAS...PLUS WILL LIKELY SEE COMBINATION OF OCEAN
EFFECT SNOW. NOTING AT LEAST CONDITIONAL CONDITIONS FOR LAKE
EFFECT ON BOTH GFS AND 4 KM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS LATE MON/MON NIGHT.

DID HAVE ISSUES WITH QPF FORECAST...THOUGH WITH STRONG ONSHORE
WINDS SHOULD SEE SOME ENHANCEMENT THERE. USED A BLEND OF WPC
GUIDANCE... 12Z GFS AND A TOUCH OF THE 15Z SREF...WITH HIGHEST
AMOUNTS ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z MONDAY WITH
INITIAL SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS LOW PASSES.

WITH THE COMBINATION OF INITIAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRONG
ONSHORE WINDS ENHANCING THE PRECIPITATION...EXPECT TO SEE BEST
CHANCE FOR SNOW ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS INTO PLYMOUTH
COUNTY. PARTIAL THICKNESSES SUPPORT MAINLY SNOW...THOUGH COULD SEE
SOME MIX WITH RAIN DURING TUESDAY WITH LIGHTER PRECIP. BASED ON
THIS...HAVE ISSUED WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THOSE AREAS MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF BUT NOT TOTALLY END DURING TUESDAY AS
UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL SITS CLOSE TO THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP
CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE AND KEEPING LIGHT SNOWFALL IN PLACE. WILL
LIKELY ALSO SEE A MIX WITH RAIN ALONG THE S COAST. BEST SHOT FOR
PRECIP WILL REMAIN ACROSS S COASTAL AREAS...THOUGH LOOKS TO BECOME
A BIT MORE SPOTTY TUE NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED FOR MOST OF THIS
PERIOD. WILL SEE CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. NOT A LOT
OF QPF TO DEAL WITH...MORE NUISANCE SNOW BUT COULD STILL SEE LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH MIDDAY WED. AS UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE
TROUGHING STARTS TO FLATTEN...NOTING AN ARCTIC FRONT IN THE NW
FLOW. EXPECT TO CROSS THE REGION LATE WED NIGHT OR EARLY
THU...WHICH WILL BE A DRY PASSAGE. EXPECT NW WINDS TO PICK UP ON
THU ALONG AS ARCTIC AIRMASS SHIFTS SE. HIGHS THU WILL ONLY BE IN
THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...EXPECT DRY TO VERY COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE.
ANOTHER REINFORCING ARCTIC FRONT CROSSES FRI NIGHT...WITH EVEN
COLDER AIR MOVING IN. CURRENT FORECAST SUGGESTS HIGHS ON SATURDAY
RUNNING AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS FOR MID FEBRUARY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SW WINDS MAY GUST TO 20 KT IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF BERKSHIRE COUNTY AND THE WORCESTER HILLS.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
BECOMING NE TOWARD SUNSET.

SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR AND DRY THRU ABOUT MIDNIGHT. THEN LOWERING TO
MVFR WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SNOW OR MIX RAIN/SNOW TOWARD
DAYBREAK MON. NE WINDS GUSTING UP TO 35 KT CAPE COD AND ISLANDS
TOWARD 12Z MON.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE THRU SUN EVENING THEN LOWERING
LATE SUN NIGHT REGARDING ARRIVAL OF LOWER CIGS/VSBYS IN SNOW/RAIN.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MONDAY-TUESDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/IFR VSBYS IN -SN ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.
LOWEST CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS E MA/RI...WHERE THEY MAY SEE
PERIODS OF MODERATE SNOW IN OCEAN EFFECT ESPECIALLY SE COASTAL MA
/PLYMOUTH COUNTY/...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS LATE MON AND MON
NIGHT. MAY SEE MIXED -RN-SN ALONG E COAST TUE AFTERNOON. NE WIND
GUSTS UP TO 35 KT MON INTO MON NIGHT ALONG IMMEDIATE E COASTAL
MA...DIMINISHING TO AROUND 25 KT TUE.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT -SHSN TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION AS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. MAY SEE MIX WITH -RA ALONG S COAST
WED AFTERNOON. COULD SEE PERIODS OF MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR
CIGS/VSBYS... MAINLY WED-WED NIGHT. CONDITIONS SHOULD SLOWLY
IMPROVE TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THU. N-NE WIND GUSTS
AROUND 25 KT EARLY WED WILL DIMINISH BY AROUND MIDDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OVERNIGHT...W TO SW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KT OVER THE EASTERN MA
WATERS...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING TOWARD DAYBREAK.

SUNDAY...TRANQUIL WIND AND SEAS ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER AND GOOD
VSBY.

SUNDAY NIGHT ... NE WINDS LIKELY INCREASE TO GALE FORCE ACROSS THE
RI AND SOUTHERN MA WATERS. THUS GALE WARNINGS POSTED. LOW
PROBABILITY NORTH OF CAPE COD SO GALE WATCHES POSTED THERE. VSBY
LOWERING IN SNOW LATE. SEAS WILL BUILD RAPIDLY WITH POWERFUL LOW
PRES OFF THE NC COAST COMBINING WITH 1035 MB SURFACE HIGH OVER
QUEBEC.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...

MONDAY...GALE CENTER WILL PASS WELL SE OF NANTUCKET...BUT GALE
FORCE GUSTS WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND WELL NW OF THE CENTER. NE
WINDS GUSTING TO 35-45 KT...HIGHEST E AND S OF CAPE COD AND
NANTUCKET... WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE MORNING THEN WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND MON NIGHT. SEAS UP TO 14-18 FT
ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE MON AFTERNOON.
VSBY RESTRICTIONS FOR AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW MON-MON
NIGHT.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME. NE WINDS IN PLACE TUE AND TUE NIGHT...GUSTING UP
TO 25-30 KT...WITH SEAS UP TO 8-11 FT. EXPECT WINDS TO BACK TO
N-NW WITH GUSTS CONTINUING AT AROUND 25 KT. SEAS WILL BUILD AGAIN
ON TUESDAY...HIGHEST E AND S OF NANTUCKET...UP TO 9-14 KT AS
ANOTHER LOW PASSES SE OF NANTUCKET. VSBY RESTRICTIONS CONTINUE FOR
LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW.

THURSDAY...NW WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST UP TO 25-30 KT. LOW RISK OF
GUSTS UP TO 35 KT THU NIGHT E AND S OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET.
SEAS UP TO 7-11 FT ON THE SE OUTER WATERS. LOCAL VSBY RESTRICTIONS
IN SCT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS...BUT SHOULD IMPROVE THU
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRO TIDES LATE MON MORNING ARE HIGH WITH 11.2 FT AT BOSTON.
STRONG NE WINDS UP TO 40 KT WILL YIELD A STORM SURGE OF 1.5 FT TO
2.0 FT AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG WAVE
ACTION OF 12-18 FT JUST OFFSHORE WILL YIELD A RISK OF MODERATE
COASTAL FLOODING.

ETSS WAS A BIT HIGHER THAN ESTOFS AND SEEMS REASONABLE. WIND
FIELD DECREASES SUBSTANTIALLY NORTH OF PLYMOUTH COUNTY. THUS
THREAT OF COASTAL FLOODING IS LOWER FROM BOSTON NORTHWARD.
THEREFORE HAVE CONFINED THE COASTAL FLOOD WATCH SOUTH OF BOSTON
THRU PLYMOUTH TO CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET.

OTHER CONCERN IS BEACH EROSION GIVEN THE HIGH WATER LEVELS...STRONG
WAVE ACTION OVER MULTIPLE TIDE CYCLES. AGAIN APPEARS HIGHEST RISK
WILL BE SOUTH OF BOSTON. HOWEVER WILL HAVE TO MONITOR LATER MODEL
RUNS FOR POSSIBLE EXPANSION OF THE WATCH NORTHWARD.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MAZ019-022-024.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR MAZ018-019-021>024.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ231>235-237-254>256.
     GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ230-250-251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/EVT
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/EVT/GAF
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...NOCERA/EVT/GAF
MARINE...NOCERA/EVT/GAF
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NOCERA



000
FXUS61 KBOX 070701
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
201 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY. AN OCEAN STORM MAY BRING A PLOWABLE
SNOWFALL TO SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW ARE
LIKELY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO THURSDAY.
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT BRINGS BITTERLY COLD CONDITIONS THE END OF
THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
2 AM UPDATE... NOT MUCH CHANGE. SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR AND
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 20S WITH LOWER TO MID 30S ALONG THE SOUTH
COASTS OF RI AND MA. WINDS HAVE LIGHTENED UP AND WERE GENERALLY
LESS THAN 10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
SUNDAY ...

NOT MUCH CHANGE WITH CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRES AT THE
SURFACE. THUS EXPECTING A DRY COLUMN SUPPORTING LOTS OF SUNSHINE
AND LIGHT WINDS...WHICH WILL MAKE TEMPS IN THE L40S FEEL EVEN
MILDER.

SUNDAY NIGHT ...

1035 QUEBEC SURFACE HIGH ADVECTS SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR SOUTHWARD
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MEANWHILE MID LEVEL SOUTHERN STREAM
TROUGH OVER THE GULF STATES THIS AFTERNOON INDUCES CYCLOGENESIS
OFF THE EAST COAST OF FL THIS EVENING AND THEN RAPIDLY
INTENSIFYING INTO A SUB 980 MB LOW/GALE CENTER WELL EAST OF THE
NC COAST SUN NIGHT. TYPICALLY THIS TRACK IS TOO FAR OFFSHORE TO
YIELD ACCUMULATING SNOW TO SOUTHEAST MA. HOWEVER THIS CYCLONE HAS
A VERY LARGE CIRCULATION/WCB/FIREHOSE IN ADDITION TO 1035 MB
SURFACE HIGH OVER QUEBEC. THUS SNOW COMES ONSHORE 06Z-12 MON AND
WILL LIKELY HAVE SOME OCEAN EFFECT SNOW /OES/ COMPONENT GIVEN NE
WINDS AND SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR BLEEDING IN FROM THE NORTH. BIG
DIFFERENCES WITH MODEL QPF WITH NAM/ARW/NMM MOST ROBUST. EC/GFS
AND RGEM MORE MODEST SO FOLLOWED A MODEL BLEND GIVEN UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DISCUSSION...
AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE FOR MUCH
IF NOT ALL OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THOUGH SIGNS CONTINUE TO SHOW
SOME DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH LATER THIS WEEK
ACROSS THE EAST. MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SIGNAL UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS THROUGH WED AND POSSIBLY INTO THU...THEN WILL START TO
SETTLE DOWN. HOWEVER...LOOKS LIKE WINTER TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH
IN WITH THE DRIER CONDITIONS LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

STILL PROBLEMS WITH SEPARATION BETWEEN SHORT WAVES IN THE OVERALL
CUTOFF LOW PRES/LONG WAVE TROUGH MON-WED...THOUGH DOES LOOK LIKE
SOME SETTLING IN WITH SOME OF THE DETAILS. HOWEVER...WITH UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE...WILL STILL SEE PERIODS OF PRECIP
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.

USED A BLEND OF MOST OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE ALONG WITH
ENSEMBLES WHICH GAVE REASONABLE CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

DETAILS...

MONDAY-TUESDAY...MODELS SETTLING IN WITH CONTINUE NE FLOW IN
PLACE. FIRST LOW PRES PASSES WELL SE OF NANTUCKET...BUT
COMBINATION OF THIS STRONG STORM /CENTRAL PRES FROM 970-978 HPA AS
IT PASSES MON AFTERNOON/ AND HIGH PRES RIDGING EXTENDING S OUT OF
QUEBEC ACROSS W NEW ENGLAND...VERY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT IN PLACE.
THIS WILL PRODUCE STRONG NE WINDS ACROSS E COASTAL
AREAS...GENERALLY S OF BOSTON. GUSTS MAY REACH UP TO 35-45 MPH
ALONG E COASTAL AREAS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...THEN WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH.

MODELS DO KEEP PUSHING NW FRINGE OF PRECIP INTO EASTERN AND
POSSIBLY CENTRAL AREAS...PLUS WILL LIKELY SEE COMBINATION OF OCEAN
EFFECT SNOW. NOTING AT LEAST CONDITIONAL CONDITIONS FOR LAKE
EFFECT ON BOTH GFS AND 4 KM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS LATE MON/MON NIGHT.

DID HAVE ISSUES WITH QPF FORECAST...THOUGH WITH STRONG ONSHORE
WINDS SHOULD SEE SOME ENHANCEMENT THERE. USED A BLEND OF WPC
GUIDANCE... 12Z GFS AND A TOUCH OF THE 15Z SREF...WITH HIGHEST
AMOUNTS ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z MONDAY WITH
INITIAL SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS LOW PASSES.

WITH THE COMBINATION OF INITIAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRONG
ONSHORE WINDS ENHANCING THE PRECIPITATION...EXPECT TO SEE BEST
CHANCE FOR SNOW ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS INTO PLYMOUTH
COUNTY. PARTIAL THICKNESSES SUPPORT MAINLY SNOW...THOUGH COULD SEE
SOME MIX WITH RAIN DURING TUESDAY WITH LIGHTER PRECIP. BASED ON
THIS...HAVE ISSUED WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THOSE AREAS MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF BUT NOT TOTALLY END DURING TUESDAY AS
UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL SITS CLOSE TO THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP
CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE AND KEEPING LIGHT SNOWFALL IN PLACE. WILL
LIKELY ALSO SEE A MIX WITH RAIN ALONG THE S COAST. BEST SHOT FOR
PRECIP WILL REMAIN ACROSS S COASTAL AREAS...THOUGH LOOKS TO BECOME
A BIT MORE SPOTTY TUE NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED FOR MOST OF THIS
PERIOD. WILL SEE CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. NOT A LOT
OF QPF TO DEAL WITH...MORE NUISANCE SNOW BUT COULD STILL SEE LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH MIDDAY WED. AS UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE
TROUGHING STARTS TO FLATTEN...NOTING AN ARCTIC FRONT IN THE NW
FLOW. EXPECT TO CROSS THE REGION LATE WED NIGHT OR EARLY
THU...WHICH WILL BE A DRY PASSAGE. EXPECT NW WINDS TO PICK UP ON
THU ALONG AS ARCTIC AIRMASS SHIFTS SE. HIGHS THU WILL ONLY BE IN
THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...EXPECT DRY TO VERY COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE.
ANOTHER REINFORCING ARCTIC FRONT CROSSES FRI NIGHT...WITH EVEN
COLDER AIR MOVING IN. CURRENT FORECAST SUGGESTS HIGHS ON SATURDAY
RUNNING AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS FOR MID FEBRUARY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SW WINDS MAY GUST TO 20 KT IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF BERKSHIRE COUNTY AND THE WORCESTER HILLS.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
BECOMING NE TOWARD SUNSET.

SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR AND DRY THRU ABOUT MIDNIGHT. THEN LOWERING TO
MVFR WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SNOW OR MIX RAIN/SNOW TOWARD
DAYBREAK MON. NE WINDS GUSTING UP TO 35 KT CAPE COD AND ISLANDS
TOWARD 12Z MON.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE THRU SUN EVENING THEN LOWERING
LATE SUN NIGHT REGARDING ARRIVAL OF LOWER CIGS/VSBYS IN SNOW/RAIN.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MONDAY-TUESDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/IFR VSBYS IN -SN ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.
LOWEST CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS E MA/RI...WHERE THEY MAY SEE
PERIODS OF MODERATE SNOW IN OCEAN EFFECT ESPECIALLY SE COASTAL MA
/PLYMOUTH COUNTY/...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS LATE MON AND MON
NIGHT. MAY SEE MIXED -RN-SN ALONG E COAST TUE AFTERNOON. NE WIND
GUSTS UP TO 35 KT MON INTO MON NIGHT ALONG IMMEDIATE E COASTAL
MA...DIMINISHING TO AROUND 25 KT TUE.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT -SHSN TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION AS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. MAY SEE MIX WITH -RA ALONG S COAST
WED AFTERNOON. COULD SEE PERIODS OF MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR
CIGS/VSBYS... MAINLY WED-WED NIGHT. CONDITIONS SHOULD SLOWLY
IMPROVE TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THU. N-NE WIND GUSTS
AROUND 25 KT EARLY WED WILL DIMINISH BY AROUND MIDDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OVERNIGHT...W TO SW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KT OVER THE EASTERN MA
WATERS...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING TOWARD DAYBREAK.

SUNDAY...TRANQUIL WIND AND SEAS ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER AND GOOD
VSBY.

SUNDAY NIGHT ... NE WINDS LIKELY INCREASE TO GALE FORCE ACROSS THE
RI AND SOUTHERN MA WATERS. THUS GALE WARNINGS POSTED. LOW
PROBABILITY NORTH OF CAPE COD SO GALE WATCHES POSTED THERE. VSBY
LOWERING IN SNOW LATE. SEAS WILL BUILD RAPIDLY WITH POWERFUL LOW
PRES OFF THE NC COAST COMBINING WITH 1035 MB SURFACE HIGH OVER
QUEBEC.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...

MONDAY...GALE CENTER WILL PASS WELL SE OF NANTUCKET...BUT GALE
FORCE GUSTS WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND WELL NW OF THE CENTER. NE
WINDS GUSTING TO 35-45 KT...HIGHEST E AND S OF CAPE COD AND
NANTUCKET... WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE MORNING THEN WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND MON NIGHT. SEAS UP TO 14-18 FT
ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE MON AFTERNOON.
VSBY RESTRICTIONS FOR AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW MON-MON
NIGHT.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME. NE WINDS IN PLACE TUE AND TUE NIGHT...GUSTING UP
TO 25-30 KT...WITH SEAS UP TO 8-11 FT. EXPECT WINDS TO BACK TO
N-NW WITH GUSTS CONTINUING AT AROUND 25 KT. SEAS WILL BUILD AGAIN
ON TUESDAY...HIGHEST E AND S OF NANTUCKET...UP TO 9-14 KT AS
ANOTHER LOW PASSES SE OF NANTUCKET. VSBY RESTRICTIONS CONTINUE FOR
LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW.

THURSDAY...NW WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST UP TO 25-30 KT. LOW RISK OF
GUSTS UP TO 35 KT THU NIGHT E AND S OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET.
SEAS UP TO 7-11 FT ON THE SE OUTER WATERS. LOCAL VSBY RESTRICTIONS
IN SCT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS...BUT SHOULD IMPROVE THU
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRO TIDES LATE MON MORNING ARE HIGH WITH 11.2 FT AT BOSTON.
STRONG NE WINDS UP TO 40 KT WILL YIELD A STORM SURGE OF 1.5 FT TO
2.0 FT AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG WAVE
ACTION OF 12-18 FT JUST OFFSHORE WILL YIELD A RISK OF MODERATE
COASTAL FLOODING.

ETSS WAS A BIT HIGHER THAN ESTOFS AND SEEMS REASONABLE. WIND
FIELD DECREASES SUBSTANTIALLY NORTH OF PLYMOUTH COUNTY. THUS
THREAT OF COASTAL FLOODING IS LOWER FROM BOSTON NORTHWARD.
THEREFORE HAVE CONFINED THE COASTAL FLOOD WATCH SOUTH OF BOSTON
THRU PLYMOUTH TO CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET.

OTHER CONCERN IS BEACH EROSION GIVEN THE HIGH WATER LEVELS...STRONG
WAVE ACTION OVER MULTIPLE TIDE CYCLES. AGAIN APPEARS HIGHEST RISK
WILL BE SOUTH OF BOSTON. HOWEVER WILL HAVE TO MONITOR LATER MODEL
RUNS FOR POSSIBLE EXPANSION OF THE WATCH NORTHWARD.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MAZ019-022-024.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR MAZ018-019-021>024.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ231>235-237-254>256.
     GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ230-250-251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/EVT
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/EVT/GAF
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...NOCERA/EVT/GAF
MARINE...NOCERA/EVT/GAF
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NOCERA



000
FXUS61 KBOX 070701
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
201 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY. AN OCEAN STORM MAY BRING A PLOWABLE
SNOWFALL TO SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW ARE
LIKELY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO THURSDAY.
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT BRINGS BITTERLY COLD CONDITIONS THE END OF
THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
2 AM UPDATE... NOT MUCH CHANGE. SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR AND
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 20S WITH LOWER TO MID 30S ALONG THE SOUTH
COASTS OF RI AND MA. WINDS HAVE LIGHTENED UP AND WERE GENERALLY
LESS THAN 10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
SUNDAY ...

NOT MUCH CHANGE WITH CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRES AT THE
SURFACE. THUS EXPECTING A DRY COLUMN SUPPORTING LOTS OF SUNSHINE
AND LIGHT WINDS...WHICH WILL MAKE TEMPS IN THE L40S FEEL EVEN
MILDER.

SUNDAY NIGHT ...

1035 QUEBEC SURFACE HIGH ADVECTS SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR SOUTHWARD
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MEANWHILE MID LEVEL SOUTHERN STREAM
TROUGH OVER THE GULF STATES THIS AFTERNOON INDUCES CYCLOGENESIS
OFF THE EAST COAST OF FL THIS EVENING AND THEN RAPIDLY
INTENSIFYING INTO A SUB 980 MB LOW/GALE CENTER WELL EAST OF THE
NC COAST SUN NIGHT. TYPICALLY THIS TRACK IS TOO FAR OFFSHORE TO
YIELD ACCUMULATING SNOW TO SOUTHEAST MA. HOWEVER THIS CYCLONE HAS
A VERY LARGE CIRCULATION/WCB/FIREHOSE IN ADDITION TO 1035 MB
SURFACE HIGH OVER QUEBEC. THUS SNOW COMES ONSHORE 06Z-12 MON AND
WILL LIKELY HAVE SOME OCEAN EFFECT SNOW /OES/ COMPONENT GIVEN NE
WINDS AND SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR BLEEDING IN FROM THE NORTH. BIG
DIFFERENCES WITH MODEL QPF WITH NAM/ARW/NMM MOST ROBUST. EC/GFS
AND RGEM MORE MODEST SO FOLLOWED A MODEL BLEND GIVEN UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DISCUSSION...
AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE FOR MUCH
IF NOT ALL OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THOUGH SIGNS CONTINUE TO SHOW
SOME DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH LATER THIS WEEK
ACROSS THE EAST. MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SIGNAL UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS THROUGH WED AND POSSIBLY INTO THU...THEN WILL START TO
SETTLE DOWN. HOWEVER...LOOKS LIKE WINTER TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH
IN WITH THE DRIER CONDITIONS LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

STILL PROBLEMS WITH SEPARATION BETWEEN SHORT WAVES IN THE OVERALL
CUTOFF LOW PRES/LONG WAVE TROUGH MON-WED...THOUGH DOES LOOK LIKE
SOME SETTLING IN WITH SOME OF THE DETAILS. HOWEVER...WITH UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE...WILL STILL SEE PERIODS OF PRECIP
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.

USED A BLEND OF MOST OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE ALONG WITH
ENSEMBLES WHICH GAVE REASONABLE CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

DETAILS...

MONDAY-TUESDAY...MODELS SETTLING IN WITH CONTINUE NE FLOW IN
PLACE. FIRST LOW PRES PASSES WELL SE OF NANTUCKET...BUT
COMBINATION OF THIS STRONG STORM /CENTRAL PRES FROM 970-978 HPA AS
IT PASSES MON AFTERNOON/ AND HIGH PRES RIDGING EXTENDING S OUT OF
QUEBEC ACROSS W NEW ENGLAND...VERY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT IN PLACE.
THIS WILL PRODUCE STRONG NE WINDS ACROSS E COASTAL
AREAS...GENERALLY S OF BOSTON. GUSTS MAY REACH UP TO 35-45 MPH
ALONG E COASTAL AREAS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...THEN WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH.

MODELS DO KEEP PUSHING NW FRINGE OF PRECIP INTO EASTERN AND
POSSIBLY CENTRAL AREAS...PLUS WILL LIKELY SEE COMBINATION OF OCEAN
EFFECT SNOW. NOTING AT LEAST CONDITIONAL CONDITIONS FOR LAKE
EFFECT ON BOTH GFS AND 4 KM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS LATE MON/MON NIGHT.

DID HAVE ISSUES WITH QPF FORECAST...THOUGH WITH STRONG ONSHORE
WINDS SHOULD SEE SOME ENHANCEMENT THERE. USED A BLEND OF WPC
GUIDANCE... 12Z GFS AND A TOUCH OF THE 15Z SREF...WITH HIGHEST
AMOUNTS ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z MONDAY WITH
INITIAL SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS LOW PASSES.

WITH THE COMBINATION OF INITIAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRONG
ONSHORE WINDS ENHANCING THE PRECIPITATION...EXPECT TO SEE BEST
CHANCE FOR SNOW ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS INTO PLYMOUTH
COUNTY. PARTIAL THICKNESSES SUPPORT MAINLY SNOW...THOUGH COULD SEE
SOME MIX WITH RAIN DURING TUESDAY WITH LIGHTER PRECIP. BASED ON
THIS...HAVE ISSUED WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THOSE AREAS MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF BUT NOT TOTALLY END DURING TUESDAY AS
UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL SITS CLOSE TO THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP
CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE AND KEEPING LIGHT SNOWFALL IN PLACE. WILL
LIKELY ALSO SEE A MIX WITH RAIN ALONG THE S COAST. BEST SHOT FOR
PRECIP WILL REMAIN ACROSS S COASTAL AREAS...THOUGH LOOKS TO BECOME
A BIT MORE SPOTTY TUE NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED FOR MOST OF THIS
PERIOD. WILL SEE CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. NOT A LOT
OF QPF TO DEAL WITH...MORE NUISANCE SNOW BUT COULD STILL SEE LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH MIDDAY WED. AS UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE
TROUGHING STARTS TO FLATTEN...NOTING AN ARCTIC FRONT IN THE NW
FLOW. EXPECT TO CROSS THE REGION LATE WED NIGHT OR EARLY
THU...WHICH WILL BE A DRY PASSAGE. EXPECT NW WINDS TO PICK UP ON
THU ALONG AS ARCTIC AIRMASS SHIFTS SE. HIGHS THU WILL ONLY BE IN
THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...EXPECT DRY TO VERY COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE.
ANOTHER REINFORCING ARCTIC FRONT CROSSES FRI NIGHT...WITH EVEN
COLDER AIR MOVING IN. CURRENT FORECAST SUGGESTS HIGHS ON SATURDAY
RUNNING AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS FOR MID FEBRUARY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SW WINDS MAY GUST TO 20 KT IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF BERKSHIRE COUNTY AND THE WORCESTER HILLS.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
BECOMING NE TOWARD SUNSET.

SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR AND DRY THRU ABOUT MIDNIGHT. THEN LOWERING TO
MVFR WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SNOW OR MIX RAIN/SNOW TOWARD
DAYBREAK MON. NE WINDS GUSTING UP TO 35 KT CAPE COD AND ISLANDS
TOWARD 12Z MON.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE THRU SUN EVENING THEN LOWERING
LATE SUN NIGHT REGARDING ARRIVAL OF LOWER CIGS/VSBYS IN SNOW/RAIN.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MONDAY-TUESDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/IFR VSBYS IN -SN ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.
LOWEST CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS E MA/RI...WHERE THEY MAY SEE
PERIODS OF MODERATE SNOW IN OCEAN EFFECT ESPECIALLY SE COASTAL MA
/PLYMOUTH COUNTY/...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS LATE MON AND MON
NIGHT. MAY SEE MIXED -RN-SN ALONG E COAST TUE AFTERNOON. NE WIND
GUSTS UP TO 35 KT MON INTO MON NIGHT ALONG IMMEDIATE E COASTAL
MA...DIMINISHING TO AROUND 25 KT TUE.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT -SHSN TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION AS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. MAY SEE MIX WITH -RA ALONG S COAST
WED AFTERNOON. COULD SEE PERIODS OF MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR
CIGS/VSBYS... MAINLY WED-WED NIGHT. CONDITIONS SHOULD SLOWLY
IMPROVE TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THU. N-NE WIND GUSTS
AROUND 25 KT EARLY WED WILL DIMINISH BY AROUND MIDDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OVERNIGHT...W TO SW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KT OVER THE EASTERN MA
WATERS...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING TOWARD DAYBREAK.

SUNDAY...TRANQUIL WIND AND SEAS ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER AND GOOD
VSBY.

SUNDAY NIGHT ... NE WINDS LIKELY INCREASE TO GALE FORCE ACROSS THE
RI AND SOUTHERN MA WATERS. THUS GALE WARNINGS POSTED. LOW
PROBABILITY NORTH OF CAPE COD SO GALE WATCHES POSTED THERE. VSBY
LOWERING IN SNOW LATE. SEAS WILL BUILD RAPIDLY WITH POWERFUL LOW
PRES OFF THE NC COAST COMBINING WITH 1035 MB SURFACE HIGH OVER
QUEBEC.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...

MONDAY...GALE CENTER WILL PASS WELL SE OF NANTUCKET...BUT GALE
FORCE GUSTS WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND WELL NW OF THE CENTER. NE
WINDS GUSTING TO 35-45 KT...HIGHEST E AND S OF CAPE COD AND
NANTUCKET... WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE MORNING THEN WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND MON NIGHT. SEAS UP TO 14-18 FT
ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE MON AFTERNOON.
VSBY RESTRICTIONS FOR AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW MON-MON
NIGHT.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME. NE WINDS IN PLACE TUE AND TUE NIGHT...GUSTING UP
TO 25-30 KT...WITH SEAS UP TO 8-11 FT. EXPECT WINDS TO BACK TO
N-NW WITH GUSTS CONTINUING AT AROUND 25 KT. SEAS WILL BUILD AGAIN
ON TUESDAY...HIGHEST E AND S OF NANTUCKET...UP TO 9-14 KT AS
ANOTHER LOW PASSES SE OF NANTUCKET. VSBY RESTRICTIONS CONTINUE FOR
LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW.

THURSDAY...NW WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST UP TO 25-30 KT. LOW RISK OF
GUSTS UP TO 35 KT THU NIGHT E AND S OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET.
SEAS UP TO 7-11 FT ON THE SE OUTER WATERS. LOCAL VSBY RESTRICTIONS
IN SCT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS...BUT SHOULD IMPROVE THU
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRO TIDES LATE MON MORNING ARE HIGH WITH 11.2 FT AT BOSTON.
STRONG NE WINDS UP TO 40 KT WILL YIELD A STORM SURGE OF 1.5 FT TO
2.0 FT AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG WAVE
ACTION OF 12-18 FT JUST OFFSHORE WILL YIELD A RISK OF MODERATE
COASTAL FLOODING.

ETSS WAS A BIT HIGHER THAN ESTOFS AND SEEMS REASONABLE. WIND
FIELD DECREASES SUBSTANTIALLY NORTH OF PLYMOUTH COUNTY. THUS
THREAT OF COASTAL FLOODING IS LOWER FROM BOSTON NORTHWARD.
THEREFORE HAVE CONFINED THE COASTAL FLOOD WATCH SOUTH OF BOSTON
THRU PLYMOUTH TO CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET.

OTHER CONCERN IS BEACH EROSION GIVEN THE HIGH WATER LEVELS...STRONG
WAVE ACTION OVER MULTIPLE TIDE CYCLES. AGAIN APPEARS HIGHEST RISK
WILL BE SOUTH OF BOSTON. HOWEVER WILL HAVE TO MONITOR LATER MODEL
RUNS FOR POSSIBLE EXPANSION OF THE WATCH NORTHWARD.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MAZ019-022-024.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR MAZ018-019-021>024.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ231>235-237-254>256.
     GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ230-250-251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/EVT
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/EVT/GAF
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...NOCERA/EVT/GAF
MARINE...NOCERA/EVT/GAF
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NOCERA




000
FXUS61 KOKX 070546
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1246 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY.
INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST US COAST WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST...MOVING SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. AN ACTIVE WINTER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK AS SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE REGION.
HIGH PRESSURE MAY RETURN AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH PASSES WELL TO THE NORTH TONIGHT. MAIN
IMPACT WILL BE SOME MAINLY THIN CIRRUS CROSSING THE AREA...WITH A
MAINLY CLEAR SKY EXPECTED AS A RESULT.

AS WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING...SHOULD END UP WITH
DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT. STILL APPEAR
ON TRACK FOR LOWS TO FALL WELL INTO THE TEENS INLAND AND LOWER
AND MIDDLE 20S FOR MOST OTHER LOCATIONS...WITH SOME LOW 30S
POSSIBLE IN THE NYC METRO.

FOR SUNDAY...A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY CONDITION WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS
AND WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION ON SW WINDS WILL HELP TEMPS RISE
CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
SPLIT FLOW WITH MODEL IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW
OFF THE SE US COAST SUN EVENING PIVOTING NE SUN NIGHT TO SE OF THE
40/70 BENCHMARK MONDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE A SECOND LARGER CLOSED LOW
DEVELOPING LOW DIGS INTO THE EASTERN 1/2 OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS CONTINUES TO RESULT IN
SUBTLE DIFFERENCES (150 MILE SPREAD) IN TRACK OF AN INTENSIFYING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES FROM OFF THE NC COAST SUN EVENING AND
THEN SE OF THE 40/70 LAT/LON BENCHMARK ON MONDAY. THIS IS
ACCENTUATING DIFFERENCES IN THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE DEFORMATION
BANDING AND PRECIPITATION SHIELD...WITH SNOWFALL VARYING ANYWHERE
FROM A TRACE TO INCH FROM W TO E (GFS/ECMWF)...OR TRACE TO 2
INCHES WEST TO 2 TO 4 INCHES EAST (GEM/NAM). OVERALL...A SLIGHT
EASTWARD AND DRIER TREND HAS BEEN NOTED WITH THE 12Z GUIDANCE
VERSUS 00Z.

IN TERMS OF ENSEMBLES...WESTERN LYING 15Z SREF MEAN IS HOLDING
FIRM WITH AROUND 1/2 TO 1 INCH QPF ACROSS THE REGION WITH MEAN
LYING IN THE MIDDLE OF A TRI- MODAL PATTERN. MEANWHILE 12Z GEFS
HAS MEAN OF .05 TO .1 INCH QPF AREAWIDE...WHICH IS BETWEEN THE
STRONG CLUSTERING AROUND THE OPERATIONAL GFS OF ONLY A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AREA WIDE...TO A HANDFUL OF MEMBERS WITH
1/4 TO 1/2 INCH QPF.

00Z AND 12Z SBU ENSEMBLE SENSITIVITY INDICATING ENSEMBLE SPREAD
IS ON THE NW SIDE OF THE GEFS/ECMWF/CMC ENSEMBLE MEANS FOR THE
LOW TRACK...WITH SENSITIVITY LYING IN THE STRENGTH AND
INTERACTION OF THE AFORE MENTIONED UPPER LOWS. THIS NW SPREAD
PATTERN...HAS MANY TIMES FAVORED WESTERN MOST SOLUTIONS OR
WESTWARD TREND IN LOW PRESSURE TRACK.

BASED ON THE ABOVE...HESITANT TO MAKE MANY CHANGES TO THE CURRENT
FORECAST...PARTICULARLY TOWARDS THE DRIER DETERMINISTIC TREND. A
BLEND OF DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE QPF PROBABILITIES INDICATING
INCREASING LIKELIHOOD FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING EAST OF NYC AND HUDSON RIVER.
LOWER PROBABILITIES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WEST OF THE NYC
METRO AND HUDSON RIVER. PRECIPITATION SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE FORM
OF SNOW...BUT MAY INITIALLY START AS A MIX WITH RAIN ACROSS
EASTERN LONG ISLAND DUE TO WARM BOUNDARY LAYER.

WILL CONTINUE WITH A GOING FORECAST FOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY WITH...

A LIKELY SCENARIO OF A DUSTING TO COUPLE INCHES ACROSS NYC METRO
AND POINTS WEST AND 2 TO 4 INCHES TOWARDS EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND
SE CT.

A CHANCE SCENARIO FOR A WESTWARD SHIFT...AND DOUBLING OF THESE
AMOUNTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONFIDENCE THIS PERIOD IS LOW AS MODELS AND ENSEMBLES HAVE NOT COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE WINTER PATTERN FOR
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. INTENSE OFFSHORE LOW WILL CONTINUE MOVING
FURTHER NE AWAY FROM COAST MONDAY NIGHT. RIGHT BEHIND THIS SYSTEM IS
THE CONTINUATION OF A VERY ANOMALOUS PATTERN. BASED ON THE 12Z
GEFS...THE WESTERN NORTH AMERICA RIDGING HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE
BETWEEN 2 AND 3 SD ABOVE NORMAL. THE LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO
THE EASTERN STATES IS BETWEEN 3 AND 4 SD BELOW NORMAL. THIS TYPE OF
PATTERN IS USUALLY CAUSE FOR CONCERN AND MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE
SHOWING QUITE A LARGE SPREAD WITH IMPORTANT FEATURES AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT. SOME OF THIS COULD BE WITH HOW THEY HANDLE THE FIRST LOW
THAT MOVES AWAY FROM THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...A VERY ENERGETIC LONGWAVE TROUGH
SETS UP OVER THE EASTERN STATES. A PARENT LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE LAKES...TRANSFERRING SOMEWHERE NEAR THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
COAST. THIS NEW WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE ENE AWAY FROM
THE COAST TO SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF OF THE 40/70 BENCHMARK.
THERE IS A GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS AMONG THE DETERMINISTIC
MODELS...BUT THEY VARY IN HOW PRECIPITATION IS GENERATED DUE TO
PLACEMENT OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND AMPLITUDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. THEY SEEM TO BE KEYING ON AN INVERTED TROUGH TYPE
SIGNATURE. THE 12Z GFS/GEFS/CMC/CMC ENSEMBLE SEEM TO HAVE THIS
SETTING UP NEAR THE AREA FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE 12Z ECMWF HAS THIS SETTING UP A BIT FURTHER SOUTH
AWAY FROM OUR CWA. THE 15Z SREF MEAN IS SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF IDEA
AS WELL AS THE 12Z NAM. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF ENERGY WITHIN THIS
TROUGH AND SUBTLE CHANGES COULD MAKE A DIFFERENCE WHERE BEST LIFT
SETS UP. MODELS HAVE ALSO SHOWN PRETTY DRASTIC CHANGES WITH
IMPORTANT DYNAMICS OVER THE LAST FEW WEEKS...WHICH LEADS TO A
LOWER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.

WILL HOLD ONTO LIKELY POPS THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. FEEL CONTINUITY
IS THE WAY TO GO HERE AND HOPEFULLY AS WE GET CLOSER...WE WILL HAVE
A BETTER IDEA FOR WHERE THE INVERTED TROUGH AND BEST LIFT FROM UPPER
ENERGY WILL SET UP. THE TAKE HOME MESSAGE IS ACCUMULATING LIGHT SNOW
IS POSSIBLE AT SOME POINT MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER NE ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT ANOMALOUS TROUGH IS LIKELY TO REMAIN OVERHEAD.
CANNOT RULE OUT LIGHT SNOW WEDNESDAY...BUT FOR NOW IT APPEARS BEST
LIFT SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA. UPPER TROF AXIS SHIFTS EAST THURSDAY.
POPS TAPER DOWN TO CHANCE WEDNESDAY AND THEN SLIGHT CHANCE ON
THURSDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS DEEP UPPER LOW SETS UP ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CANADA. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH DRY AS BEST MOISTURE AXIS HAS
SHIFTED OFFSHORE FROM EARLIER WEEK ACTIVITY. ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS INTO
THE AREA SATURDAY. THE 12Z ECMWF HAS 850 HPA TEMPS DROPPING TO
BETWEEN -22C TO -26C.

FORECAST TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE LONG
TERM...WITH INCREASING PROBABILITY OF A SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR AND WELL
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AT THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY. LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS WELL TO THE SOUTH...THEN SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND
TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGHOUT EARLY...AND SHOULD REMAIN
SO INTO THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS BECOME SE-E THEN ENE-NE AT UNDER 10 KT
FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. WINDS BECOME NE AROUND 10 KT
THROUGHOUT TOWARDS MIDNIGHT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.TONIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KSWF. HIGHEST
CHC AT SE CT/E LONG ISLAND TERMINALS. NE WINDS G20-30+KT
POSSIBLE. HIGHEST GUSTS EAST.
.MON...MVFR OR LOWER LIKELY EAST/POSSIBLE WEST IN SNOW. NE-N
WINDS G20-30KT WEST AND 30-40KT EAST POSSIBLE.
.MON NIGHT-TUE NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER LIKELY IN SNOW. MIXED
PCPN POSSIBLE AT COAST DURING THE DAY ON TUE. N-NE WINDS G15-25KT
POSSIBLE MON NIGHT-TUE.
.WED-THU...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN -SN. W-NW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE
WED NIGHT-THU.

&&

.MARINE...
MADE MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.



SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON ALL WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY
WITH A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING
COASTAL LOW SUN NIGHT WITH GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN OCEAN WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUING
INTO MONDAY. POTENTIAL FOR GALES ON THE WESTERN OCEAN WATERS AND
EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND/BAYS. SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON
REMAINDER OF THE WATERS. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
TRACK OF LOW PRESSURE...AND IF IT TRACKS CLOSER TO THE COAST...THE
GALE THREAT WILL MOVE WESTWARD.

SCA IS LIKELY ON MOST WATERS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS MAY
TEMPORARILY DECREASE TUE NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT SEAS ON THE
OCEAN WILL REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT. WINDS THEN INCREASE ABOVE SCA LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THRU
MON...WITH LOW PROB FOR MODERATE PRECIPITATION. MOST IF NOT ALL
OF THE PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS LIKELY TO BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW
AT THIS TIME.

WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE MON NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
POTENTIAL FOR MINOR COASTAL IMPACTS MONDAY INTO MIDWEEK WITH A NEW
MOON ON MONDAY AND A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURES AFFECTING THE REGION.

AN INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE WILL HAVE NE/N WINDS INCREASING TO
POTENTIALLY GALE FORCE SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO MONDAY.
BASED ON A TRACK OF INTENSIFYING LOW THAT SHOULD BE SE OF THE
40/70 LAT/LON BENCHMARK AND COLD AIR DAMMING SIGNATURE...WOULD
EXPECT POTENTIAL FOR WINDS TO BE BACKED MORE TO THE N THAN NE.
THIS WOULD FAVOR THE LOWER SURGE GUIDANCE FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT HIGH TIDE CYCLES...WHICH WOULD KEEP IMPACTS MINOR AND
LIKELY LIMITED TO THE MOST VULNERABLE LOCALES. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR.

AS WE HEAD INTO TUESDAYS HIGH TIDE CYCLES...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
WINDS TO VEER MORE TO THE NE AS ADDITIONAL WAVE/S OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACK TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. THE SPRING ASTRONOMICAL TIDES
AND MULTI-TIDAL CYCLE NATURE OF THE EVENT WILL FAVOR ADDITIONAL
MINOR FLOODING...WITH POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD MINOR TO MODERATE
IMPACTS IN THE BACK BAY AREAS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR ANZ335-338-345.
     GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ330-340-355.
     GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/NV
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/DS/NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...MALOIT/DS/NV
HYDROLOGY...DS/NV
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KOKX 070546
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1246 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY.
INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST US COAST WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST...MOVING SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. AN ACTIVE WINTER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK AS SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE REGION.
HIGH PRESSURE MAY RETURN AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH PASSES WELL TO THE NORTH TONIGHT. MAIN
IMPACT WILL BE SOME MAINLY THIN CIRRUS CROSSING THE AREA...WITH A
MAINLY CLEAR SKY EXPECTED AS A RESULT.

AS WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING...SHOULD END UP WITH
DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT. STILL APPEAR
ON TRACK FOR LOWS TO FALL WELL INTO THE TEENS INLAND AND LOWER
AND MIDDLE 20S FOR MOST OTHER LOCATIONS...WITH SOME LOW 30S
POSSIBLE IN THE NYC METRO.

FOR SUNDAY...A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY CONDITION WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS
AND WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION ON SW WINDS WILL HELP TEMPS RISE
CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
SPLIT FLOW WITH MODEL IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW
OFF THE SE US COAST SUN EVENING PIVOTING NE SUN NIGHT TO SE OF THE
40/70 BENCHMARK MONDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE A SECOND LARGER CLOSED LOW
DEVELOPING LOW DIGS INTO THE EASTERN 1/2 OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS CONTINUES TO RESULT IN
SUBTLE DIFFERENCES (150 MILE SPREAD) IN TRACK OF AN INTENSIFYING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES FROM OFF THE NC COAST SUN EVENING AND
THEN SE OF THE 40/70 LAT/LON BENCHMARK ON MONDAY. THIS IS
ACCENTUATING DIFFERENCES IN THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE DEFORMATION
BANDING AND PRECIPITATION SHIELD...WITH SNOWFALL VARYING ANYWHERE
FROM A TRACE TO INCH FROM W TO E (GFS/ECMWF)...OR TRACE TO 2
INCHES WEST TO 2 TO 4 INCHES EAST (GEM/NAM). OVERALL...A SLIGHT
EASTWARD AND DRIER TREND HAS BEEN NOTED WITH THE 12Z GUIDANCE
VERSUS 00Z.

IN TERMS OF ENSEMBLES...WESTERN LYING 15Z SREF MEAN IS HOLDING
FIRM WITH AROUND 1/2 TO 1 INCH QPF ACROSS THE REGION WITH MEAN
LYING IN THE MIDDLE OF A TRI- MODAL PATTERN. MEANWHILE 12Z GEFS
HAS MEAN OF .05 TO .1 INCH QPF AREAWIDE...WHICH IS BETWEEN THE
STRONG CLUSTERING AROUND THE OPERATIONAL GFS OF ONLY A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AREA WIDE...TO A HANDFUL OF MEMBERS WITH
1/4 TO 1/2 INCH QPF.

00Z AND 12Z SBU ENSEMBLE SENSITIVITY INDICATING ENSEMBLE SPREAD
IS ON THE NW SIDE OF THE GEFS/ECMWF/CMC ENSEMBLE MEANS FOR THE
LOW TRACK...WITH SENSITIVITY LYING IN THE STRENGTH AND
INTERACTION OF THE AFORE MENTIONED UPPER LOWS. THIS NW SPREAD
PATTERN...HAS MANY TIMES FAVORED WESTERN MOST SOLUTIONS OR
WESTWARD TREND IN LOW PRESSURE TRACK.

BASED ON THE ABOVE...HESITANT TO MAKE MANY CHANGES TO THE CURRENT
FORECAST...PARTICULARLY TOWARDS THE DRIER DETERMINISTIC TREND. A
BLEND OF DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE QPF PROBABILITIES INDICATING
INCREASING LIKELIHOOD FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING EAST OF NYC AND HUDSON RIVER.
LOWER PROBABILITIES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WEST OF THE NYC
METRO AND HUDSON RIVER. PRECIPITATION SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE FORM
OF SNOW...BUT MAY INITIALLY START AS A MIX WITH RAIN ACROSS
EASTERN LONG ISLAND DUE TO WARM BOUNDARY LAYER.

WILL CONTINUE WITH A GOING FORECAST FOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY WITH...

A LIKELY SCENARIO OF A DUSTING TO COUPLE INCHES ACROSS NYC METRO
AND POINTS WEST AND 2 TO 4 INCHES TOWARDS EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND
SE CT.

A CHANCE SCENARIO FOR A WESTWARD SHIFT...AND DOUBLING OF THESE
AMOUNTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONFIDENCE THIS PERIOD IS LOW AS MODELS AND ENSEMBLES HAVE NOT COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE WINTER PATTERN FOR
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. INTENSE OFFSHORE LOW WILL CONTINUE MOVING
FURTHER NE AWAY FROM COAST MONDAY NIGHT. RIGHT BEHIND THIS SYSTEM IS
THE CONTINUATION OF A VERY ANOMALOUS PATTERN. BASED ON THE 12Z
GEFS...THE WESTERN NORTH AMERICA RIDGING HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE
BETWEEN 2 AND 3 SD ABOVE NORMAL. THE LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO
THE EASTERN STATES IS BETWEEN 3 AND 4 SD BELOW NORMAL. THIS TYPE OF
PATTERN IS USUALLY CAUSE FOR CONCERN AND MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE
SHOWING QUITE A LARGE SPREAD WITH IMPORTANT FEATURES AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT. SOME OF THIS COULD BE WITH HOW THEY HANDLE THE FIRST LOW
THAT MOVES AWAY FROM THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...A VERY ENERGETIC LONGWAVE TROUGH
SETS UP OVER THE EASTERN STATES. A PARENT LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE LAKES...TRANSFERRING SOMEWHERE NEAR THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
COAST. THIS NEW WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE ENE AWAY FROM
THE COAST TO SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF OF THE 40/70 BENCHMARK.
THERE IS A GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS AMONG THE DETERMINISTIC
MODELS...BUT THEY VARY IN HOW PRECIPITATION IS GENERATED DUE TO
PLACEMENT OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND AMPLITUDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. THEY SEEM TO BE KEYING ON AN INVERTED TROUGH TYPE
SIGNATURE. THE 12Z GFS/GEFS/CMC/CMC ENSEMBLE SEEM TO HAVE THIS
SETTING UP NEAR THE AREA FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE 12Z ECMWF HAS THIS SETTING UP A BIT FURTHER SOUTH
AWAY FROM OUR CWA. THE 15Z SREF MEAN IS SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF IDEA
AS WELL AS THE 12Z NAM. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF ENERGY WITHIN THIS
TROUGH AND SUBTLE CHANGES COULD MAKE A DIFFERENCE WHERE BEST LIFT
SETS UP. MODELS HAVE ALSO SHOWN PRETTY DRASTIC CHANGES WITH
IMPORTANT DYNAMICS OVER THE LAST FEW WEEKS...WHICH LEADS TO A
LOWER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.

WILL HOLD ONTO LIKELY POPS THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. FEEL CONTINUITY
IS THE WAY TO GO HERE AND HOPEFULLY AS WE GET CLOSER...WE WILL HAVE
A BETTER IDEA FOR WHERE THE INVERTED TROUGH AND BEST LIFT FROM UPPER
ENERGY WILL SET UP. THE TAKE HOME MESSAGE IS ACCUMULATING LIGHT SNOW
IS POSSIBLE AT SOME POINT MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER NE ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT ANOMALOUS TROUGH IS LIKELY TO REMAIN OVERHEAD.
CANNOT RULE OUT LIGHT SNOW WEDNESDAY...BUT FOR NOW IT APPEARS BEST
LIFT SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA. UPPER TROF AXIS SHIFTS EAST THURSDAY.
POPS TAPER DOWN TO CHANCE WEDNESDAY AND THEN SLIGHT CHANCE ON
THURSDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS DEEP UPPER LOW SETS UP ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CANADA. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH DRY AS BEST MOISTURE AXIS HAS
SHIFTED OFFSHORE FROM EARLIER WEEK ACTIVITY. ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS INTO
THE AREA SATURDAY. THE 12Z ECMWF HAS 850 HPA TEMPS DROPPING TO
BETWEEN -22C TO -26C.

FORECAST TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE LONG
TERM...WITH INCREASING PROBABILITY OF A SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR AND WELL
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AT THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY. LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS WELL TO THE SOUTH...THEN SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND
TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGHOUT EARLY...AND SHOULD REMAIN
SO INTO THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS BECOME SE-E THEN ENE-NE AT UNDER 10 KT
FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. WINDS BECOME NE AROUND 10 KT
THROUGHOUT TOWARDS MIDNIGHT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.TONIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KSWF. HIGHEST
CHC AT SE CT/E LONG ISLAND TERMINALS. NE WINDS G20-30+KT
POSSIBLE. HIGHEST GUSTS EAST.
.MON...MVFR OR LOWER LIKELY EAST/POSSIBLE WEST IN SNOW. NE-N
WINDS G20-30KT WEST AND 30-40KT EAST POSSIBLE.
.MON NIGHT-TUE NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER LIKELY IN SNOW. MIXED
PCPN POSSIBLE AT COAST DURING THE DAY ON TUE. N-NE WINDS G15-25KT
POSSIBLE MON NIGHT-TUE.
.WED-THU...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN -SN. W-NW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE
WED NIGHT-THU.

&&

.MARINE...
MADE MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.



SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON ALL WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY
WITH A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING
COASTAL LOW SUN NIGHT WITH GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN OCEAN WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUING
INTO MONDAY. POTENTIAL FOR GALES ON THE WESTERN OCEAN WATERS AND
EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND/BAYS. SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON
REMAINDER OF THE WATERS. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
TRACK OF LOW PRESSURE...AND IF IT TRACKS CLOSER TO THE COAST...THE
GALE THREAT WILL MOVE WESTWARD.

SCA IS LIKELY ON MOST WATERS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS MAY
TEMPORARILY DECREASE TUE NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT SEAS ON THE
OCEAN WILL REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT. WINDS THEN INCREASE ABOVE SCA LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THRU
MON...WITH LOW PROB FOR MODERATE PRECIPITATION. MOST IF NOT ALL
OF THE PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS LIKELY TO BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW
AT THIS TIME.

WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE MON NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
POTENTIAL FOR MINOR COASTAL IMPACTS MONDAY INTO MIDWEEK WITH A NEW
MOON ON MONDAY AND A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURES AFFECTING THE REGION.

AN INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE WILL HAVE NE/N WINDS INCREASING TO
POTENTIALLY GALE FORCE SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO MONDAY.
BASED ON A TRACK OF INTENSIFYING LOW THAT SHOULD BE SE OF THE
40/70 LAT/LON BENCHMARK AND COLD AIR DAMMING SIGNATURE...WOULD
EXPECT POTENTIAL FOR WINDS TO BE BACKED MORE TO THE N THAN NE.
THIS WOULD FAVOR THE LOWER SURGE GUIDANCE FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT HIGH TIDE CYCLES...WHICH WOULD KEEP IMPACTS MINOR AND
LIKELY LIMITED TO THE MOST VULNERABLE LOCALES. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR.

AS WE HEAD INTO TUESDAYS HIGH TIDE CYCLES...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
WINDS TO VEER MORE TO THE NE AS ADDITIONAL WAVE/S OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACK TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. THE SPRING ASTRONOMICAL TIDES
AND MULTI-TIDAL CYCLE NATURE OF THE EVENT WILL FAVOR ADDITIONAL
MINOR FLOODING...WITH POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD MINOR TO MODERATE
IMPACTS IN THE BACK BAY AREAS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR ANZ335-338-345.
     GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ330-340-355.
     GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/NV
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/DS/NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...MALOIT/DS/NV
HYDROLOGY...DS/NV
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KOKX 070546
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1246 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY.
INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST US COAST WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST...MOVING SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. AN ACTIVE WINTER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK AS SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE REGION.
HIGH PRESSURE MAY RETURN AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH PASSES WELL TO THE NORTH TONIGHT. MAIN
IMPACT WILL BE SOME MAINLY THIN CIRRUS CROSSING THE AREA...WITH A
MAINLY CLEAR SKY EXPECTED AS A RESULT.

AS WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING...SHOULD END UP WITH
DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT. STILL APPEAR
ON TRACK FOR LOWS TO FALL WELL INTO THE TEENS INLAND AND LOWER
AND MIDDLE 20S FOR MOST OTHER LOCATIONS...WITH SOME LOW 30S
POSSIBLE IN THE NYC METRO.

FOR SUNDAY...A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY CONDITION WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS
AND WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION ON SW WINDS WILL HELP TEMPS RISE
CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
SPLIT FLOW WITH MODEL IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW
OFF THE SE US COAST SUN EVENING PIVOTING NE SUN NIGHT TO SE OF THE
40/70 BENCHMARK MONDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE A SECOND LARGER CLOSED LOW
DEVELOPING LOW DIGS INTO THE EASTERN 1/2 OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS CONTINUES TO RESULT IN
SUBTLE DIFFERENCES (150 MILE SPREAD) IN TRACK OF AN INTENSIFYING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES FROM OFF THE NC COAST SUN EVENING AND
THEN SE OF THE 40/70 LAT/LON BENCHMARK ON MONDAY. THIS IS
ACCENTUATING DIFFERENCES IN THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE DEFORMATION
BANDING AND PRECIPITATION SHIELD...WITH SNOWFALL VARYING ANYWHERE
FROM A TRACE TO INCH FROM W TO E (GFS/ECMWF)...OR TRACE TO 2
INCHES WEST TO 2 TO 4 INCHES EAST (GEM/NAM). OVERALL...A SLIGHT
EASTWARD AND DRIER TREND HAS BEEN NOTED WITH THE 12Z GUIDANCE
VERSUS 00Z.

IN TERMS OF ENSEMBLES...WESTERN LYING 15Z SREF MEAN IS HOLDING
FIRM WITH AROUND 1/2 TO 1 INCH QPF ACROSS THE REGION WITH MEAN
LYING IN THE MIDDLE OF A TRI- MODAL PATTERN. MEANWHILE 12Z GEFS
HAS MEAN OF .05 TO .1 INCH QPF AREAWIDE...WHICH IS BETWEEN THE
STRONG CLUSTERING AROUND THE OPERATIONAL GFS OF ONLY A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AREA WIDE...TO A HANDFUL OF MEMBERS WITH
1/4 TO 1/2 INCH QPF.

00Z AND 12Z SBU ENSEMBLE SENSITIVITY INDICATING ENSEMBLE SPREAD
IS ON THE NW SIDE OF THE GEFS/ECMWF/CMC ENSEMBLE MEANS FOR THE
LOW TRACK...WITH SENSITIVITY LYING IN THE STRENGTH AND
INTERACTION OF THE AFORE MENTIONED UPPER LOWS. THIS NW SPREAD
PATTERN...HAS MANY TIMES FAVORED WESTERN MOST SOLUTIONS OR
WESTWARD TREND IN LOW PRESSURE TRACK.

BASED ON THE ABOVE...HESITANT TO MAKE MANY CHANGES TO THE CURRENT
FORECAST...PARTICULARLY TOWARDS THE DRIER DETERMINISTIC TREND. A
BLEND OF DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE QPF PROBABILITIES INDICATING
INCREASING LIKELIHOOD FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING EAST OF NYC AND HUDSON RIVER.
LOWER PROBABILITIES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WEST OF THE NYC
METRO AND HUDSON RIVER. PRECIPITATION SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE FORM
OF SNOW...BUT MAY INITIALLY START AS A MIX WITH RAIN ACROSS
EASTERN LONG ISLAND DUE TO WARM BOUNDARY LAYER.

WILL CONTINUE WITH A GOING FORECAST FOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY WITH...

A LIKELY SCENARIO OF A DUSTING TO COUPLE INCHES ACROSS NYC METRO
AND POINTS WEST AND 2 TO 4 INCHES TOWARDS EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND
SE CT.

A CHANCE SCENARIO FOR A WESTWARD SHIFT...AND DOUBLING OF THESE
AMOUNTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONFIDENCE THIS PERIOD IS LOW AS MODELS AND ENSEMBLES HAVE NOT COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE WINTER PATTERN FOR
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. INTENSE OFFSHORE LOW WILL CONTINUE MOVING
FURTHER NE AWAY FROM COAST MONDAY NIGHT. RIGHT BEHIND THIS SYSTEM IS
THE CONTINUATION OF A VERY ANOMALOUS PATTERN. BASED ON THE 12Z
GEFS...THE WESTERN NORTH AMERICA RIDGING HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE
BETWEEN 2 AND 3 SD ABOVE NORMAL. THE LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO
THE EASTERN STATES IS BETWEEN 3 AND 4 SD BELOW NORMAL. THIS TYPE OF
PATTERN IS USUALLY CAUSE FOR CONCERN AND MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE
SHOWING QUITE A LARGE SPREAD WITH IMPORTANT FEATURES AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT. SOME OF THIS COULD BE WITH HOW THEY HANDLE THE FIRST LOW
THAT MOVES AWAY FROM THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...A VERY ENERGETIC LONGWAVE TROUGH
SETS UP OVER THE EASTERN STATES. A PARENT LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE LAKES...TRANSFERRING SOMEWHERE NEAR THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
COAST. THIS NEW WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE ENE AWAY FROM
THE COAST TO SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF OF THE 40/70 BENCHMARK.
THERE IS A GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS AMONG THE DETERMINISTIC
MODELS...BUT THEY VARY IN HOW PRECIPITATION IS GENERATED DUE TO
PLACEMENT OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND AMPLITUDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. THEY SEEM TO BE KEYING ON AN INVERTED TROUGH TYPE
SIGNATURE. THE 12Z GFS/GEFS/CMC/CMC ENSEMBLE SEEM TO HAVE THIS
SETTING UP NEAR THE AREA FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE 12Z ECMWF HAS THIS SETTING UP A BIT FURTHER SOUTH
AWAY FROM OUR CWA. THE 15Z SREF MEAN IS SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF IDEA
AS WELL AS THE 12Z NAM. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF ENERGY WITHIN THIS
TROUGH AND SUBTLE CHANGES COULD MAKE A DIFFERENCE WHERE BEST LIFT
SETS UP. MODELS HAVE ALSO SHOWN PRETTY DRASTIC CHANGES WITH
IMPORTANT DYNAMICS OVER THE LAST FEW WEEKS...WHICH LEADS TO A
LOWER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.

WILL HOLD ONTO LIKELY POPS THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. FEEL CONTINUITY
IS THE WAY TO GO HERE AND HOPEFULLY AS WE GET CLOSER...WE WILL HAVE
A BETTER IDEA FOR WHERE THE INVERTED TROUGH AND BEST LIFT FROM UPPER
ENERGY WILL SET UP. THE TAKE HOME MESSAGE IS ACCUMULATING LIGHT SNOW
IS POSSIBLE AT SOME POINT MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER NE ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT ANOMALOUS TROUGH IS LIKELY TO REMAIN OVERHEAD.
CANNOT RULE OUT LIGHT SNOW WEDNESDAY...BUT FOR NOW IT APPEARS BEST
LIFT SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA. UPPER TROF AXIS SHIFTS EAST THURSDAY.
POPS TAPER DOWN TO CHANCE WEDNESDAY AND THEN SLIGHT CHANCE ON
THURSDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS DEEP UPPER LOW SETS UP ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CANADA. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH DRY AS BEST MOISTURE AXIS HAS
SHIFTED OFFSHORE FROM EARLIER WEEK ACTIVITY. ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS INTO
THE AREA SATURDAY. THE 12Z ECMWF HAS 850 HPA TEMPS DROPPING TO
BETWEEN -22C TO -26C.

FORECAST TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE LONG
TERM...WITH INCREASING PROBABILITY OF A SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR AND WELL
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AT THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY. LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS WELL TO THE SOUTH...THEN SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND
TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGHOUT EARLY...AND SHOULD REMAIN
SO INTO THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS BECOME SE-E THEN ENE-NE AT UNDER 10 KT
FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. WINDS BECOME NE AROUND 10 KT
THROUGHOUT TOWARDS MIDNIGHT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.TONIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KSWF. HIGHEST
CHC AT SE CT/E LONG ISLAND TERMINALS. NE WINDS G20-30+KT
POSSIBLE. HIGHEST GUSTS EAST.
.MON...MVFR OR LOWER LIKELY EAST/POSSIBLE WEST IN SNOW. NE-N
WINDS G20-30KT WEST AND 30-40KT EAST POSSIBLE.
.MON NIGHT-TUE NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER LIKELY IN SNOW. MIXED
PCPN POSSIBLE AT COAST DURING THE DAY ON TUE. N-NE WINDS G15-25KT
POSSIBLE MON NIGHT-TUE.
.WED-THU...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN -SN. W-NW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE
WED NIGHT-THU.

&&

.MARINE...
MADE MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.



SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON ALL WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY
WITH A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING
COASTAL LOW SUN NIGHT WITH GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN OCEAN WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUING
INTO MONDAY. POTENTIAL FOR GALES ON THE WESTERN OCEAN WATERS AND
EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND/BAYS. SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON
REMAINDER OF THE WATERS. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
TRACK OF LOW PRESSURE...AND IF IT TRACKS CLOSER TO THE COAST...THE
GALE THREAT WILL MOVE WESTWARD.

SCA IS LIKELY ON MOST WATERS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS MAY
TEMPORARILY DECREASE TUE NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT SEAS ON THE
OCEAN WILL REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT. WINDS THEN INCREASE ABOVE SCA LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THRU
MON...WITH LOW PROB FOR MODERATE PRECIPITATION. MOST IF NOT ALL
OF THE PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS LIKELY TO BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW
AT THIS TIME.

WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE MON NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
POTENTIAL FOR MINOR COASTAL IMPACTS MONDAY INTO MIDWEEK WITH A NEW
MOON ON MONDAY AND A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURES AFFECTING THE REGION.

AN INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE WILL HAVE NE/N WINDS INCREASING TO
POTENTIALLY GALE FORCE SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO MONDAY.
BASED ON A TRACK OF INTENSIFYING LOW THAT SHOULD BE SE OF THE
40/70 LAT/LON BENCHMARK AND COLD AIR DAMMING SIGNATURE...WOULD
EXPECT POTENTIAL FOR WINDS TO BE BACKED MORE TO THE N THAN NE.
THIS WOULD FAVOR THE LOWER SURGE GUIDANCE FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT HIGH TIDE CYCLES...WHICH WOULD KEEP IMPACTS MINOR AND
LIKELY LIMITED TO THE MOST VULNERABLE LOCALES. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR.

AS WE HEAD INTO TUESDAYS HIGH TIDE CYCLES...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
WINDS TO VEER MORE TO THE NE AS ADDITIONAL WAVE/S OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACK TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. THE SPRING ASTRONOMICAL TIDES
AND MULTI-TIDAL CYCLE NATURE OF THE EVENT WILL FAVOR ADDITIONAL
MINOR FLOODING...WITH POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD MINOR TO MODERATE
IMPACTS IN THE BACK BAY AREAS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR ANZ335-338-345.
     GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ330-340-355.
     GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/NV
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/DS/NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...MALOIT/DS/NV
HYDROLOGY...DS/NV
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KALY 070539
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1239 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK OVERNIGHT.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO CLOSE THE WEEKEND. TOMORROW
NIGHT INTO THE MIDWEEK A LARGE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SETTLE
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL SET UP THE REGION FOR A
PERIOD OF TYPICAL FEBRUARY WEATHER...CLOUDY...COLD WITH PERIODS OF
LIGHT SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR SEVERAL DAYS...AS TOTAL SNOW
AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
JUST SOME CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
BASED ON RADAR THERE COULD BE A FLURRY OR TWO IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...BUT TOO SMALL A CHANCE TO
MENTION. HAVE ADJUSTED SOME SKY GRIDS AND MINOR TOUCHES TO
TEMPERATURES THROUGH DAYBREAK. THE PREVIOUS AFD HAD A FEW MORE
DETAILS THROUGH TODAY AND IS BELOW...

A COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH FROM SE CANADA OVERNIGHT.
THIS WILL MAINLY RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS OVERNIGHT ACROSS
FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND A SLIGHT CHC OF
FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SRN DACKS. IT WILL REMAIN PARTLY
CLOUDY OR MOSTLY CLEAR FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST. LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL
BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S WITH SOME UPPER TEENS IN THE SHELTERED
VALLEYS. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT.

ON SUNDAY THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND KEEPING THE COLDEST AIR LOCKED UP NORTH OF
THE BOUNDARY. THERE WILL BE INTERVALS OF CLOUDS AND SUN ON SUNDAY
ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S EXCEPT FOR SOME UPPER 20S ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A SERIES OF 500 HPA SHORT WVS CARVE A TROF AND THEN A CUTOFF OVER
THE GRTLKS RGN THROUGH THIS PERIOD. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM GENERALLY
FAIR CONDS WILL PREVAIL SUN NT. MON THE ONE STRONG S STREAM SHORT
WV EJECTS SOUTH OF THE RGN AS A CSTL STORM...BUT IT MAY INJECT
SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE E PRTNS OF FCA AS THE CUT OFF
APPROACHES.

OTHERWISE THE 500 HPA CUT OFF SUPPORTS A WEAKENING CLIPPER LOW
OVER THE GRT LKS RGN MON INTO MIDWEEK. THIS LEAVES THE RGN UNDER
A SPRAWLING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THROUGH OUT THE ATMOSPHERE. YET
ANOTHER COASTAL LOW IS SPAWNED BY THIS 500 HPA LOW...BUT ALL
DETERMINISTIC GUID KEEPS IT WEAK AND TO THE SOUTH OF FCA TUE.

SO WHILE THERE IS UNANIMOUS AGREEMENT AMONG THE ECMWF/GFS/NAM/GEM
DETERMINISTIC RUNS IN KEEPING THE SIGNIFICANT ACTION TO OUR
EAST...ITS JUST TO OUR EAST AS SVRL NOR EASTER TYPE STORMS PASS
JUST BEYOND THE RGN. ATTM THE GUID IS FCST MOSTLY FISH STORMS.

THEN THERE THE SREFS WITH QPF FM 0.10 TO A 1.3 LIQ EQUIV OUTLIER...GEFS
A TRACE TO 0.5 INCH LIQ EQ.

SO THE CONSENSUS SUPPORTS FCA IN TYPICAL FEB REGIME. COLD...AS
ALL PCPN WILL BE -SN OR -SNSH...CLOUDY BUT QPF CONSTRAINED BY
LIMITED TO AT MOST MODEST MOISTURE. SNSH/-SN WILL BE FOCUSED BY PASSING
SHORT WVS...A NW-SE ORIENTED TROF THAT SHIFTS NE ACROSS THE
RGN...AS WELL AS THESE SYSTEMS ABILITY TO TRIGGER A LK EFFECT
RESPONSE...AND SOME MOISTURE INJECTIONS FM COASTAL STORMS PASSING
JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THE NET QPF IN THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS OVER THE
WHOLE PERIOD ARE ON THE ORDER OF A QUARTER OF AN INCH QPF...PLUS
OR MINUS A TENTH WITH A BIT MORE OVER MTN RIDGES.

WHILE THE MODEL SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT ON THE GENERAL SCENARIO...ALL
KEEPING THE SIGNIFICANT STORMS AT BAY TO OUR SOUTH...THEY DO VARY
ON THE TIMING OF FORCING MECHANISMS. FCA REMAINS UNCOMFORTABLY
CLOSE TO SHARP GRADIENTS OF PCPN AS EVIDENCED BY THE PLUMES AND
PERCENTAGES IN THE ENSEMBLE WPC OUTPUT.

FOR NOW THE BLEND IS THE BEST APPROACH TO ADDRESSING THIS DEGREE
OF UNCERTAINTY. TEMPS WILL REMAIN COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...WITH NR
NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS STILL TRENDING ABV NORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THIS LONG TERM PERIOD BRINGS THE LONGEST SUSTAINED COLD PERIOD
WE`VE SEEN THIS WINTER. THE 1ST CUTOFF AT 500 HPA LINGERS ONE
MORE DAY DEPARTING TO OUR EAST THURSDAY...AND CYCLOGENESIS ENSUES
IN THE GULF OF MAINE. HWVR THE SHRT WV PARADE CARVES OUT AND
REINFORCES THE FULL LATITUDE TROF IN THE EAST. IN ITS WAKE ARCTIC
AIR POURS SOUTH INTO THE RGN. THE COLDEST AIR IS USHERED INTO THE
RGN AS AN E-W CDFNT DROPS S INTO THE RGN AND COULD FOCUS SQUALLS
OR LES LATE WED.

OTRW THE RGN REMAINS UNDER A 500HPA CUT OFF. THE THREAT OF -SHSN
CONTINUES THROUGH THE EFP. TO THE FAR N...NW FLOW AND THE 500 HPA
CUT OFF WILL ENHANCE THE ACTIVITY OVER THE ADRNDKS. HWVR COVERAGE
OF -SNSH WILL DIMINISH TO MOSTLY N & W OF ALB. THE LES RESPONSE
WILL ALSO DIMINISH IN WAKE OF LAST CDFNT AS LLVL FLOW IS N-NW. SN
ACCUMS WILL BE LIGHT TO MODEST...BUT ONGOING FROM TIME TO TIME
PARTICULARLY N & W OF ALB. THE MOST NOTICEABLE THING ABOUT THE EFP
WILL TEMPS WILL TURN BLO NORMALS THU...AND KEEP TRENDING DOWN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT THE KALB/KPOU/KPSF/KGFL
TERMINALS THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD ENDING 06Z MONDAY.

SATELLITE IMAGERY STILL SHOWING QUITE A BIT OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS
FROM AROUND KALB NORTHWARD EARLY THIS MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION BKN CIGS FOR ALL SITES BUT KPOU...WHERE SKIES SHOULD
REMAIN CLEAR. GRADUAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED LATER IN THE
MORNING...AS AN AREA OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...BECOMING VARIABLE BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO CONCERNS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS AS
ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

THE THIRD WINTER SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE SEASON WAS ISSUED
ON FEBRUARY 4TH.

HIGHLIGHTS...REFER TO THE PRODUCTS FOR DETAILS (ALBESFALY):

DUE TO BELOW NORMAL SNOW COVER AND RIVER ICE...POTENTIAL FOR
SNOWMELT AND ICE JAM FLOODING IS LOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

HOWEVER BY LATE IN THE WEEK TEMPS WILL TREND BELOW NORMALS...AND
ICE FORMATION WILL INCREASE ON AREA RIVERS AND LAKES.

ALTHOUGH WATER SUPPLY LEVELS ARE NOT A CONCERN AT THE MOMENT...THERE
IS CURRENTLY VERY LITTLE SNOW WATER AVAILABLE FOR RESERVOIR RECHARGE
ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. IT WILL TAKE A STEADY SUPPLY OF RAIN AND
SNOW THROUGH SPRING INTO SUMMER FOR RESERVOIRS TO MAINTAIN ADEQUATE
LEVELS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER/WASULA
NEAR TERM...11/NAS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER




000
FXUS61 KALY 070539
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1239 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK OVERNIGHT.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO CLOSE THE WEEKEND. TOMORROW
NIGHT INTO THE MIDWEEK A LARGE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SETTLE
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL SET UP THE REGION FOR A
PERIOD OF TYPICAL FEBRUARY WEATHER...CLOUDY...COLD WITH PERIODS OF
LIGHT SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR SEVERAL DAYS...AS TOTAL SNOW
AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
JUST SOME CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
BASED ON RADAR THERE COULD BE A FLURRY OR TWO IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...BUT TOO SMALL A CHANCE TO
MENTION. HAVE ADJUSTED SOME SKY GRIDS AND MINOR TOUCHES TO
TEMPERATURES THROUGH DAYBREAK. THE PREVIOUS AFD HAD A FEW MORE
DETAILS THROUGH TODAY AND IS BELOW...

A COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH FROM SE CANADA OVERNIGHT.
THIS WILL MAINLY RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS OVERNIGHT ACROSS
FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND A SLIGHT CHC OF
FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SRN DACKS. IT WILL REMAIN PARTLY
CLOUDY OR MOSTLY CLEAR FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST. LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL
BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S WITH SOME UPPER TEENS IN THE SHELTERED
VALLEYS. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT.

ON SUNDAY THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND KEEPING THE COLDEST AIR LOCKED UP NORTH OF
THE BOUNDARY. THERE WILL BE INTERVALS OF CLOUDS AND SUN ON SUNDAY
ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S EXCEPT FOR SOME UPPER 20S ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A SERIES OF 500 HPA SHORT WVS CARVE A TROF AND THEN A CUTOFF OVER
THE GRTLKS RGN THROUGH THIS PERIOD. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM GENERALLY
FAIR CONDS WILL PREVAIL SUN NT. MON THE ONE STRONG S STREAM SHORT
WV EJECTS SOUTH OF THE RGN AS A CSTL STORM...BUT IT MAY INJECT
SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE E PRTNS OF FCA AS THE CUT OFF
APPROACHES.

OTHERWISE THE 500 HPA CUT OFF SUPPORTS A WEAKENING CLIPPER LOW
OVER THE GRT LKS RGN MON INTO MIDWEEK. THIS LEAVES THE RGN UNDER
A SPRAWLING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THROUGH OUT THE ATMOSPHERE. YET
ANOTHER COASTAL LOW IS SPAWNED BY THIS 500 HPA LOW...BUT ALL
DETERMINISTIC GUID KEEPS IT WEAK AND TO THE SOUTH OF FCA TUE.

SO WHILE THERE IS UNANIMOUS AGREEMENT AMONG THE ECMWF/GFS/NAM/GEM
DETERMINISTIC RUNS IN KEEPING THE SIGNIFICANT ACTION TO OUR
EAST...ITS JUST TO OUR EAST AS SVRL NOR EASTER TYPE STORMS PASS
JUST BEYOND THE RGN. ATTM THE GUID IS FCST MOSTLY FISH STORMS.

THEN THERE THE SREFS WITH QPF FM 0.10 TO A 1.3 LIQ EQUIV OUTLIER...GEFS
A TRACE TO 0.5 INCH LIQ EQ.

SO THE CONSENSUS SUPPORTS FCA IN TYPICAL FEB REGIME. COLD...AS
ALL PCPN WILL BE -SN OR -SNSH...CLOUDY BUT QPF CONSTRAINED BY
LIMITED TO AT MOST MODEST MOISTURE. SNSH/-SN WILL BE FOCUSED BY PASSING
SHORT WVS...A NW-SE ORIENTED TROF THAT SHIFTS NE ACROSS THE
RGN...AS WELL AS THESE SYSTEMS ABILITY TO TRIGGER A LK EFFECT
RESPONSE...AND SOME MOISTURE INJECTIONS FM COASTAL STORMS PASSING
JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THE NET QPF IN THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS OVER THE
WHOLE PERIOD ARE ON THE ORDER OF A QUARTER OF AN INCH QPF...PLUS
OR MINUS A TENTH WITH A BIT MORE OVER MTN RIDGES.

WHILE THE MODEL SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT ON THE GENERAL SCENARIO...ALL
KEEPING THE SIGNIFICANT STORMS AT BAY TO OUR SOUTH...THEY DO VARY
ON THE TIMING OF FORCING MECHANISMS. FCA REMAINS UNCOMFORTABLY
CLOSE TO SHARP GRADIENTS OF PCPN AS EVIDENCED BY THE PLUMES AND
PERCENTAGES IN THE ENSEMBLE WPC OUTPUT.

FOR NOW THE BLEND IS THE BEST APPROACH TO ADDRESSING THIS DEGREE
OF UNCERTAINTY. TEMPS WILL REMAIN COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...WITH NR
NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS STILL TRENDING ABV NORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THIS LONG TERM PERIOD BRINGS THE LONGEST SUSTAINED COLD PERIOD
WE`VE SEEN THIS WINTER. THE 1ST CUTOFF AT 500 HPA LINGERS ONE
MORE DAY DEPARTING TO OUR EAST THURSDAY...AND CYCLOGENESIS ENSUES
IN THE GULF OF MAINE. HWVR THE SHRT WV PARADE CARVES OUT AND
REINFORCES THE FULL LATITUDE TROF IN THE EAST. IN ITS WAKE ARCTIC
AIR POURS SOUTH INTO THE RGN. THE COLDEST AIR IS USHERED INTO THE
RGN AS AN E-W CDFNT DROPS S INTO THE RGN AND COULD FOCUS SQUALLS
OR LES LATE WED.

OTRW THE RGN REMAINS UNDER A 500HPA CUT OFF. THE THREAT OF -SHSN
CONTINUES THROUGH THE EFP. TO THE FAR N...NW FLOW AND THE 500 HPA
CUT OFF WILL ENHANCE THE ACTIVITY OVER THE ADRNDKS. HWVR COVERAGE
OF -SNSH WILL DIMINISH TO MOSTLY N & W OF ALB. THE LES RESPONSE
WILL ALSO DIMINISH IN WAKE OF LAST CDFNT AS LLVL FLOW IS N-NW. SN
ACCUMS WILL BE LIGHT TO MODEST...BUT ONGOING FROM TIME TO TIME
PARTICULARLY N & W OF ALB. THE MOST NOTICEABLE THING ABOUT THE EFP
WILL TEMPS WILL TURN BLO NORMALS THU...AND KEEP TRENDING DOWN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT THE KALB/KPOU/KPSF/KGFL
TERMINALS THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD ENDING 06Z MONDAY.

SATELLITE IMAGERY STILL SHOWING QUITE A BIT OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS
FROM AROUND KALB NORTHWARD EARLY THIS MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION BKN CIGS FOR ALL SITES BUT KPOU...WHERE SKIES SHOULD
REMAIN CLEAR. GRADUAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED LATER IN THE
MORNING...AS AN AREA OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...BECOMING VARIABLE BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO CONCERNS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS AS
ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

THE THIRD WINTER SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE SEASON WAS ISSUED
ON FEBRUARY 4TH.

HIGHLIGHTS...REFER TO THE PRODUCTS FOR DETAILS (ALBESFALY):

DUE TO BELOW NORMAL SNOW COVER AND RIVER ICE...POTENTIAL FOR
SNOWMELT AND ICE JAM FLOODING IS LOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

HOWEVER BY LATE IN THE WEEK TEMPS WILL TREND BELOW NORMALS...AND
ICE FORMATION WILL INCREASE ON AREA RIVERS AND LAKES.

ALTHOUGH WATER SUPPLY LEVELS ARE NOT A CONCERN AT THE MOMENT...THERE
IS CURRENTLY VERY LITTLE SNOW WATER AVAILABLE FOR RESERVOIR RECHARGE
ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. IT WILL TAKE A STEADY SUPPLY OF RAIN AND
SNOW THROUGH SPRING INTO SUMMER FOR RESERVOIRS TO MAINTAIN ADEQUATE
LEVELS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER/WASULA
NEAR TERM...11/NAS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER




000
FXUS61 KALY 070539
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1239 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK OVERNIGHT.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO CLOSE THE WEEKEND. TOMORROW
NIGHT INTO THE MIDWEEK A LARGE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SETTLE
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL SET UP THE REGION FOR A
PERIOD OF TYPICAL FEBRUARY WEATHER...CLOUDY...COLD WITH PERIODS OF
LIGHT SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR SEVERAL DAYS...AS TOTAL SNOW
AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
JUST SOME CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
BASED ON RADAR THERE COULD BE A FLURRY OR TWO IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...BUT TOO SMALL A CHANCE TO
MENTION. HAVE ADJUSTED SOME SKY GRIDS AND MINOR TOUCHES TO
TEMPERATURES THROUGH DAYBREAK. THE PREVIOUS AFD HAD A FEW MORE
DETAILS THROUGH TODAY AND IS BELOW...

A COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH FROM SE CANADA OVERNIGHT.
THIS WILL MAINLY RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS OVERNIGHT ACROSS
FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND A SLIGHT CHC OF
FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SRN DACKS. IT WILL REMAIN PARTLY
CLOUDY OR MOSTLY CLEAR FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST. LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL
BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S WITH SOME UPPER TEENS IN THE SHELTERED
VALLEYS. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT.

ON SUNDAY THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND KEEPING THE COLDEST AIR LOCKED UP NORTH OF
THE BOUNDARY. THERE WILL BE INTERVALS OF CLOUDS AND SUN ON SUNDAY
ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S EXCEPT FOR SOME UPPER 20S ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A SERIES OF 500 HPA SHORT WVS CARVE A TROF AND THEN A CUTOFF OVER
THE GRTLKS RGN THROUGH THIS PERIOD. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM GENERALLY
FAIR CONDS WILL PREVAIL SUN NT. MON THE ONE STRONG S STREAM SHORT
WV EJECTS SOUTH OF THE RGN AS A CSTL STORM...BUT IT MAY INJECT
SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE E PRTNS OF FCA AS THE CUT OFF
APPROACHES.

OTHERWISE THE 500 HPA CUT OFF SUPPORTS A WEAKENING CLIPPER LOW
OVER THE GRT LKS RGN MON INTO MIDWEEK. THIS LEAVES THE RGN UNDER
A SPRAWLING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THROUGH OUT THE ATMOSPHERE. YET
ANOTHER COASTAL LOW IS SPAWNED BY THIS 500 HPA LOW...BUT ALL
DETERMINISTIC GUID KEEPS IT WEAK AND TO THE SOUTH OF FCA TUE.

SO WHILE THERE IS UNANIMOUS AGREEMENT AMONG THE ECMWF/GFS/NAM/GEM
DETERMINISTIC RUNS IN KEEPING THE SIGNIFICANT ACTION TO OUR
EAST...ITS JUST TO OUR EAST AS SVRL NOR EASTER TYPE STORMS PASS
JUST BEYOND THE RGN. ATTM THE GUID IS FCST MOSTLY FISH STORMS.

THEN THERE THE SREFS WITH QPF FM 0.10 TO A 1.3 LIQ EQUIV OUTLIER...GEFS
A TRACE TO 0.5 INCH LIQ EQ.

SO THE CONSENSUS SUPPORTS FCA IN TYPICAL FEB REGIME. COLD...AS
ALL PCPN WILL BE -SN OR -SNSH...CLOUDY BUT QPF CONSTRAINED BY
LIMITED TO AT MOST MODEST MOISTURE. SNSH/-SN WILL BE FOCUSED BY PASSING
SHORT WVS...A NW-SE ORIENTED TROF THAT SHIFTS NE ACROSS THE
RGN...AS WELL AS THESE SYSTEMS ABILITY TO TRIGGER A LK EFFECT
RESPONSE...AND SOME MOISTURE INJECTIONS FM COASTAL STORMS PASSING
JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THE NET QPF IN THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS OVER THE
WHOLE PERIOD ARE ON THE ORDER OF A QUARTER OF AN INCH QPF...PLUS
OR MINUS A TENTH WITH A BIT MORE OVER MTN RIDGES.

WHILE THE MODEL SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT ON THE GENERAL SCENARIO...ALL
KEEPING THE SIGNIFICANT STORMS AT BAY TO OUR SOUTH...THEY DO VARY
ON THE TIMING OF FORCING MECHANISMS. FCA REMAINS UNCOMFORTABLY
CLOSE TO SHARP GRADIENTS OF PCPN AS EVIDENCED BY THE PLUMES AND
PERCENTAGES IN THE ENSEMBLE WPC OUTPUT.

FOR NOW THE BLEND IS THE BEST APPROACH TO ADDRESSING THIS DEGREE
OF UNCERTAINTY. TEMPS WILL REMAIN COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...WITH NR
NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS STILL TRENDING ABV NORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THIS LONG TERM PERIOD BRINGS THE LONGEST SUSTAINED COLD PERIOD
WE`VE SEEN THIS WINTER. THE 1ST CUTOFF AT 500 HPA LINGERS ONE
MORE DAY DEPARTING TO OUR EAST THURSDAY...AND CYCLOGENESIS ENSUES
IN THE GULF OF MAINE. HWVR THE SHRT WV PARADE CARVES OUT AND
REINFORCES THE FULL LATITUDE TROF IN THE EAST. IN ITS WAKE ARCTIC
AIR POURS SOUTH INTO THE RGN. THE COLDEST AIR IS USHERED INTO THE
RGN AS AN E-W CDFNT DROPS S INTO THE RGN AND COULD FOCUS SQUALLS
OR LES LATE WED.

OTRW THE RGN REMAINS UNDER A 500HPA CUT OFF. THE THREAT OF -SHSN
CONTINUES THROUGH THE EFP. TO THE FAR N...NW FLOW AND THE 500 HPA
CUT OFF WILL ENHANCE THE ACTIVITY OVER THE ADRNDKS. HWVR COVERAGE
OF -SNSH WILL DIMINISH TO MOSTLY N & W OF ALB. THE LES RESPONSE
WILL ALSO DIMINISH IN WAKE OF LAST CDFNT AS LLVL FLOW IS N-NW. SN
ACCUMS WILL BE LIGHT TO MODEST...BUT ONGOING FROM TIME TO TIME
PARTICULARLY N & W OF ALB. THE MOST NOTICEABLE THING ABOUT THE EFP
WILL TEMPS WILL TURN BLO NORMALS THU...AND KEEP TRENDING DOWN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT THE KALB/KPOU/KPSF/KGFL
TERMINALS THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD ENDING 06Z MONDAY.

SATELLITE IMAGERY STILL SHOWING QUITE A BIT OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS
FROM AROUND KALB NORTHWARD EARLY THIS MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION BKN CIGS FOR ALL SITES BUT KPOU...WHERE SKIES SHOULD
REMAIN CLEAR. GRADUAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED LATER IN THE
MORNING...AS AN AREA OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...BECOMING VARIABLE BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO CONCERNS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS AS
ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

THE THIRD WINTER SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE SEASON WAS ISSUED
ON FEBRUARY 4TH.

HIGHLIGHTS...REFER TO THE PRODUCTS FOR DETAILS (ALBESFALY):

DUE TO BELOW NORMAL SNOW COVER AND RIVER ICE...POTENTIAL FOR
SNOWMELT AND ICE JAM FLOODING IS LOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

HOWEVER BY LATE IN THE WEEK TEMPS WILL TREND BELOW NORMALS...AND
ICE FORMATION WILL INCREASE ON AREA RIVERS AND LAKES.

ALTHOUGH WATER SUPPLY LEVELS ARE NOT A CONCERN AT THE MOMENT...THERE
IS CURRENTLY VERY LITTLE SNOW WATER AVAILABLE FOR RESERVOIR RECHARGE
ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. IT WILL TAKE A STEADY SUPPLY OF RAIN AND
SNOW THROUGH SPRING INTO SUMMER FOR RESERVOIRS TO MAINTAIN ADEQUATE
LEVELS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER/WASULA
NEAR TERM...11/NAS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER




000
FXUS61 KALY 070539
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1239 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK OVERNIGHT.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO CLOSE THE WEEKEND. TOMORROW
NIGHT INTO THE MIDWEEK A LARGE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SETTLE
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL SET UP THE REGION FOR A
PERIOD OF TYPICAL FEBRUARY WEATHER...CLOUDY...COLD WITH PERIODS OF
LIGHT SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR SEVERAL DAYS...AS TOTAL SNOW
AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
JUST SOME CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
BASED ON RADAR THERE COULD BE A FLURRY OR TWO IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...BUT TOO SMALL A CHANCE TO
MENTION. HAVE ADJUSTED SOME SKY GRIDS AND MINOR TOUCHES TO
TEMPERATURES THROUGH DAYBREAK. THE PREVIOUS AFD HAD A FEW MORE
DETAILS THROUGH TODAY AND IS BELOW...

A COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH FROM SE CANADA OVERNIGHT.
THIS WILL MAINLY RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS OVERNIGHT ACROSS
FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND A SLIGHT CHC OF
FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SRN DACKS. IT WILL REMAIN PARTLY
CLOUDY OR MOSTLY CLEAR FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST. LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL
BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S WITH SOME UPPER TEENS IN THE SHELTERED
VALLEYS. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT.

ON SUNDAY THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND KEEPING THE COLDEST AIR LOCKED UP NORTH OF
THE BOUNDARY. THERE WILL BE INTERVALS OF CLOUDS AND SUN ON SUNDAY
ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S EXCEPT FOR SOME UPPER 20S ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A SERIES OF 500 HPA SHORT WVS CARVE A TROF AND THEN A CUTOFF OVER
THE GRTLKS RGN THROUGH THIS PERIOD. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM GENERALLY
FAIR CONDS WILL PREVAIL SUN NT. MON THE ONE STRONG S STREAM SHORT
WV EJECTS SOUTH OF THE RGN AS A CSTL STORM...BUT IT MAY INJECT
SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE E PRTNS OF FCA AS THE CUT OFF
APPROACHES.

OTHERWISE THE 500 HPA CUT OFF SUPPORTS A WEAKENING CLIPPER LOW
OVER THE GRT LKS RGN MON INTO MIDWEEK. THIS LEAVES THE RGN UNDER
A SPRAWLING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THROUGH OUT THE ATMOSPHERE. YET
ANOTHER COASTAL LOW IS SPAWNED BY THIS 500 HPA LOW...BUT ALL
DETERMINISTIC GUID KEEPS IT WEAK AND TO THE SOUTH OF FCA TUE.

SO WHILE THERE IS UNANIMOUS AGREEMENT AMONG THE ECMWF/GFS/NAM/GEM
DETERMINISTIC RUNS IN KEEPING THE SIGNIFICANT ACTION TO OUR
EAST...ITS JUST TO OUR EAST AS SVRL NOR EASTER TYPE STORMS PASS
JUST BEYOND THE RGN. ATTM THE GUID IS FCST MOSTLY FISH STORMS.

THEN THERE THE SREFS WITH QPF FM 0.10 TO A 1.3 LIQ EQUIV OUTLIER...GEFS
A TRACE TO 0.5 INCH LIQ EQ.

SO THE CONSENSUS SUPPORTS FCA IN TYPICAL FEB REGIME. COLD...AS
ALL PCPN WILL BE -SN OR -SNSH...CLOUDY BUT QPF CONSTRAINED BY
LIMITED TO AT MOST MODEST MOISTURE. SNSH/-SN WILL BE FOCUSED BY PASSING
SHORT WVS...A NW-SE ORIENTED TROF THAT SHIFTS NE ACROSS THE
RGN...AS WELL AS THESE SYSTEMS ABILITY TO TRIGGER A LK EFFECT
RESPONSE...AND SOME MOISTURE INJECTIONS FM COASTAL STORMS PASSING
JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THE NET QPF IN THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS OVER THE
WHOLE PERIOD ARE ON THE ORDER OF A QUARTER OF AN INCH QPF...PLUS
OR MINUS A TENTH WITH A BIT MORE OVER MTN RIDGES.

WHILE THE MODEL SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT ON THE GENERAL SCENARIO...ALL
KEEPING THE SIGNIFICANT STORMS AT BAY TO OUR SOUTH...THEY DO VARY
ON THE TIMING OF FORCING MECHANISMS. FCA REMAINS UNCOMFORTABLY
CLOSE TO SHARP GRADIENTS OF PCPN AS EVIDENCED BY THE PLUMES AND
PERCENTAGES IN THE ENSEMBLE WPC OUTPUT.

FOR NOW THE BLEND IS THE BEST APPROACH TO ADDRESSING THIS DEGREE
OF UNCERTAINTY. TEMPS WILL REMAIN COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...WITH NR
NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS STILL TRENDING ABV NORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THIS LONG TERM PERIOD BRINGS THE LONGEST SUSTAINED COLD PERIOD
WE`VE SEEN THIS WINTER. THE 1ST CUTOFF AT 500 HPA LINGERS ONE
MORE DAY DEPARTING TO OUR EAST THURSDAY...AND CYCLOGENESIS ENSUES
IN THE GULF OF MAINE. HWVR THE SHRT WV PARADE CARVES OUT AND
REINFORCES THE FULL LATITUDE TROF IN THE EAST. IN ITS WAKE ARCTIC
AIR POURS SOUTH INTO THE RGN. THE COLDEST AIR IS USHERED INTO THE
RGN AS AN E-W CDFNT DROPS S INTO THE RGN AND COULD FOCUS SQUALLS
OR LES LATE WED.

OTRW THE RGN REMAINS UNDER A 500HPA CUT OFF. THE THREAT OF -SHSN
CONTINUES THROUGH THE EFP. TO THE FAR N...NW FLOW AND THE 500 HPA
CUT OFF WILL ENHANCE THE ACTIVITY OVER THE ADRNDKS. HWVR COVERAGE
OF -SNSH WILL DIMINISH TO MOSTLY N & W OF ALB. THE LES RESPONSE
WILL ALSO DIMINISH IN WAKE OF LAST CDFNT AS LLVL FLOW IS N-NW. SN
ACCUMS WILL BE LIGHT TO MODEST...BUT ONGOING FROM TIME TO TIME
PARTICULARLY N & W OF ALB. THE MOST NOTICEABLE THING ABOUT THE EFP
WILL TEMPS WILL TURN BLO NORMALS THU...AND KEEP TRENDING DOWN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT THE KALB/KPOU/KPSF/KGFL
TERMINALS THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD ENDING 06Z MONDAY.

SATELLITE IMAGERY STILL SHOWING QUITE A BIT OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS
FROM AROUND KALB NORTHWARD EARLY THIS MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION BKN CIGS FOR ALL SITES BUT KPOU...WHERE SKIES SHOULD
REMAIN CLEAR. GRADUAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED LATER IN THE
MORNING...AS AN AREA OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...BECOMING VARIABLE BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO CONCERNS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS AS
ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

THE THIRD WINTER SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE SEASON WAS ISSUED
ON FEBRUARY 4TH.

HIGHLIGHTS...REFER TO THE PRODUCTS FOR DETAILS (ALBESFALY):

DUE TO BELOW NORMAL SNOW COVER AND RIVER ICE...POTENTIAL FOR
SNOWMELT AND ICE JAM FLOODING IS LOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

HOWEVER BY LATE IN THE WEEK TEMPS WILL TREND BELOW NORMALS...AND
ICE FORMATION WILL INCREASE ON AREA RIVERS AND LAKES.

ALTHOUGH WATER SUPPLY LEVELS ARE NOT A CONCERN AT THE MOMENT...THERE
IS CURRENTLY VERY LITTLE SNOW WATER AVAILABLE FOR RESERVOIR RECHARGE
ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. IT WILL TAKE A STEADY SUPPLY OF RAIN AND
SNOW THROUGH SPRING INTO SUMMER FOR RESERVOIRS TO MAINTAIN ADEQUATE
LEVELS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER/WASULA
NEAR TERM...11/NAS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER




000
FXUS61 KALY 070539
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1239 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK OVERNIGHT.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO CLOSE THE WEEKEND. TOMORROW
NIGHT INTO THE MIDWEEK A LARGE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SETTLE
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL SET UP THE REGION FOR A
PERIOD OF TYPICAL FEBRUARY WEATHER...CLOUDY...COLD WITH PERIODS OF
LIGHT SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR SEVERAL DAYS...AS TOTAL SNOW
AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
JUST SOME CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
BASED ON RADAR THERE COULD BE A FLURRY OR TWO IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...BUT TOO SMALL A CHANCE TO
MENTION. HAVE ADJUSTED SOME SKY GRIDS AND MINOR TOUCHES TO
TEMPERATURES THROUGH DAYBREAK. THE PREVIOUS AFD HAD A FEW MORE
DETAILS THROUGH TODAY AND IS BELOW...

A COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH FROM SE CANADA OVERNIGHT.
THIS WILL MAINLY RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS OVERNIGHT ACROSS
FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND A SLIGHT CHC OF
FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SRN DACKS. IT WILL REMAIN PARTLY
CLOUDY OR MOSTLY CLEAR FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST. LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL
BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S WITH SOME UPPER TEENS IN THE SHELTERED
VALLEYS. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT.

ON SUNDAY THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND KEEPING THE COLDEST AIR LOCKED UP NORTH OF
THE BOUNDARY. THERE WILL BE INTERVALS OF CLOUDS AND SUN ON SUNDAY
ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S EXCEPT FOR SOME UPPER 20S ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A SERIES OF 500 HPA SHORT WVS CARVE A TROF AND THEN A CUTOFF OVER
THE GRTLKS RGN THROUGH THIS PERIOD. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM GENERALLY
FAIR CONDS WILL PREVAIL SUN NT. MON THE ONE STRONG S STREAM SHORT
WV EJECTS SOUTH OF THE RGN AS A CSTL STORM...BUT IT MAY INJECT
SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE E PRTNS OF FCA AS THE CUT OFF
APPROACHES.

OTHERWISE THE 500 HPA CUT OFF SUPPORTS A WEAKENING CLIPPER LOW
OVER THE GRT LKS RGN MON INTO MIDWEEK. THIS LEAVES THE RGN UNDER
A SPRAWLING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THROUGH OUT THE ATMOSPHERE. YET
ANOTHER COASTAL LOW IS SPAWNED BY THIS 500 HPA LOW...BUT ALL
DETERMINISTIC GUID KEEPS IT WEAK AND TO THE SOUTH OF FCA TUE.

SO WHILE THERE IS UNANIMOUS AGREEMENT AMONG THE ECMWF/GFS/NAM/GEM
DETERMINISTIC RUNS IN KEEPING THE SIGNIFICANT ACTION TO OUR
EAST...ITS JUST TO OUR EAST AS SVRL NOR EASTER TYPE STORMS PASS
JUST BEYOND THE RGN. ATTM THE GUID IS FCST MOSTLY FISH STORMS.

THEN THERE THE SREFS WITH QPF FM 0.10 TO A 1.3 LIQ EQUIV OUTLIER...GEFS
A TRACE TO 0.5 INCH LIQ EQ.

SO THE CONSENSUS SUPPORTS FCA IN TYPICAL FEB REGIME. COLD...AS
ALL PCPN WILL BE -SN OR -SNSH...CLOUDY BUT QPF CONSTRAINED BY
LIMITED TO AT MOST MODEST MOISTURE. SNSH/-SN WILL BE FOCUSED BY PASSING
SHORT WVS...A NW-SE ORIENTED TROF THAT SHIFTS NE ACROSS THE
RGN...AS WELL AS THESE SYSTEMS ABILITY TO TRIGGER A LK EFFECT
RESPONSE...AND SOME MOISTURE INJECTIONS FM COASTAL STORMS PASSING
JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THE NET QPF IN THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS OVER THE
WHOLE PERIOD ARE ON THE ORDER OF A QUARTER OF AN INCH QPF...PLUS
OR MINUS A TENTH WITH A BIT MORE OVER MTN RIDGES.

WHILE THE MODEL SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT ON THE GENERAL SCENARIO...ALL
KEEPING THE SIGNIFICANT STORMS AT BAY TO OUR SOUTH...THEY DO VARY
ON THE TIMING OF FORCING MECHANISMS. FCA REMAINS UNCOMFORTABLY
CLOSE TO SHARP GRADIENTS OF PCPN AS EVIDENCED BY THE PLUMES AND
PERCENTAGES IN THE ENSEMBLE WPC OUTPUT.

FOR NOW THE BLEND IS THE BEST APPROACH TO ADDRESSING THIS DEGREE
OF UNCERTAINTY. TEMPS WILL REMAIN COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...WITH NR
NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS STILL TRENDING ABV NORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THIS LONG TERM PERIOD BRINGS THE LONGEST SUSTAINED COLD PERIOD
WE`VE SEEN THIS WINTER. THE 1ST CUTOFF AT 500 HPA LINGERS ONE
MORE DAY DEPARTING TO OUR EAST THURSDAY...AND CYCLOGENESIS ENSUES
IN THE GULF OF MAINE. HWVR THE SHRT WV PARADE CARVES OUT AND
REINFORCES THE FULL LATITUDE TROF IN THE EAST. IN ITS WAKE ARCTIC
AIR POURS SOUTH INTO THE RGN. THE COLDEST AIR IS USHERED INTO THE
RGN AS AN E-W CDFNT DROPS S INTO THE RGN AND COULD FOCUS SQUALLS
OR LES LATE WED.

OTRW THE RGN REMAINS UNDER A 500HPA CUT OFF. THE THREAT OF -SHSN
CONTINUES THROUGH THE EFP. TO THE FAR N...NW FLOW AND THE 500 HPA
CUT OFF WILL ENHANCE THE ACTIVITY OVER THE ADRNDKS. HWVR COVERAGE
OF -SNSH WILL DIMINISH TO MOSTLY N & W OF ALB. THE LES RESPONSE
WILL ALSO DIMINISH IN WAKE OF LAST CDFNT AS LLVL FLOW IS N-NW. SN
ACCUMS WILL BE LIGHT TO MODEST...BUT ONGOING FROM TIME TO TIME
PARTICULARLY N & W OF ALB. THE MOST NOTICEABLE THING ABOUT THE EFP
WILL TEMPS WILL TURN BLO NORMALS THU...AND KEEP TRENDING DOWN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT THE KALB/KPOU/KPSF/KGFL
TERMINALS THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD ENDING 06Z MONDAY.

SATELLITE IMAGERY STILL SHOWING QUITE A BIT OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS
FROM AROUND KALB NORTHWARD EARLY THIS MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION BKN CIGS FOR ALL SITES BUT KPOU...WHERE SKIES SHOULD
REMAIN CLEAR. GRADUAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED LATER IN THE
MORNING...AS AN AREA OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...BECOMING VARIABLE BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO CONCERNS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS AS
ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

THE THIRD WINTER SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE SEASON WAS ISSUED
ON FEBRUARY 4TH.

HIGHLIGHTS...REFER TO THE PRODUCTS FOR DETAILS (ALBESFALY):

DUE TO BELOW NORMAL SNOW COVER AND RIVER ICE...POTENTIAL FOR
SNOWMELT AND ICE JAM FLOODING IS LOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

HOWEVER BY LATE IN THE WEEK TEMPS WILL TREND BELOW NORMALS...AND
ICE FORMATION WILL INCREASE ON AREA RIVERS AND LAKES.

ALTHOUGH WATER SUPPLY LEVELS ARE NOT A CONCERN AT THE MOMENT...THERE
IS CURRENTLY VERY LITTLE SNOW WATER AVAILABLE FOR RESERVOIR RECHARGE
ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. IT WILL TAKE A STEADY SUPPLY OF RAIN AND
SNOW THROUGH SPRING INTO SUMMER FOR RESERVOIRS TO MAINTAIN ADEQUATE
LEVELS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER/WASULA
NEAR TERM...11/NAS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER




000
FXUS61 KALY 070518
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1218 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK OVERNIGHT.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO CLOSE THE WEEKEND. TOMORROW
NIGHT INTO THE MIDWEEK A LARGE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SETTLE
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL SET UP THE REGION FOR A
PERIOD OF TYPICAL FEBRUARY WEATHER...CLOUDY...COLD WITH PERIODS OF
LIGHT SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR SEVERAL DAYS...AS TOTAL SNOW
AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
JUST SOME CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
BASED ON RADAR THERE COULD BE A FLURRY OR TWO IN THE SOUTHENR
ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...BUT TOO SMALL A CHANCE TO
MENTION. HAVE ADJUSTED SOME SKY GFIDS AND MINOR TOUCHES TO
TEMPERATURES THROUGH DAYBREAK. THE PREVIOUS AFD HAD A FEW MORE
DETAILS THROUGH TODAY AND IS BELOW...

A COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH FROM SE CANADA OVERNIGHT.
THIS WILL MAINLY RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS OVERNIGHT ACROSS
FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND A SLIGHT CHC OF
FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SRN DACKS. IT WILL REMAIN PARTLY
CLOUDY OR MOSTLY CLEAR FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST. LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL
BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S WITH SOME UPPER TEENS IN THE SHELTERED
VALLEYS. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT.

ON SUNDAY THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND KEEPING THE COLDEST AIR LOCKED UP NORTH OF
THE BOUNDARY. THERE WILL BE INTERVALS OF CLOUDS AND SUN ON SUNDAY
ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S EXCEPT FOR SOME UPPER 20S ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A SERIES OF 500 HPA SHORT WVS CARVE A TROF AND THEN A CUTOFF OVER
THE GRTLKS RGN THROUGH THIS PERIOD. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM GENERALLY
FAIR CONDS WILL PREVAIL SUN NT. MON THE ONE STRONG S STREAM SHORT
WV EJECTS SOUTH OF THE RGN AS A CSTL STORM...BUT IT MAY INJECT
SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE E PRTNS OF FCA AS THE CUT OFF
APPROACHES.

OTHERWISE THE 500 HPA CUT OFF SUPPORTS A WEAKENING CLIPPER LOW
OVER THE GRT LKS RGN MON INTO MIDWEEK. THIS LEAVES THE RGN UNDER
A SPRAWLING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THROUGH OUT THE ATMOSPHERE. YET
ANOTHER COASTAL LOW IS SPAWNED BY THIS 500 HPA LOW...BUT ALL
DETERMINISTIC GUID KEEPS IT WEAK AND TO THE SOUTH OF FCA TUE.

SO WHILE THERE IS UNANIMOUS AGREEMENT AMONG THE ECMWF/GFS/NAM/GEM
DETERMINISTIC RUNS IN KEEPING THE SIGNIFICANT ACTION TO OUR
EAST...ITS JUST TO OUR EAST AS SVRL NOR EASTER TYPE STORMS PASS
JUST BEYOND THE RGN. ATTM THE GUID IS FCST MOSTLY FISH STORMS.

THEN THERE THE SREFS WITH QPF FM 0.10 TO A 1.3 LIQ EQUIV OUTLIER...GEFS
A TRACE TO 0.5 INCH LIQ EQ.

SO THE CONSENSUS SUPPORTS FCA IN TYPICAL FEB REGIME. COLD...AS
ALL PCPN WILL BE -SN OR -SNSH...CLOUDY BUT QPF CONSTRAINED BY
LIMITED TO AT MOST MODEST MOISTURE. SNSH/-SN WILL BE FOCUSED BY PASSING
SHORT WVS...A NW-SE ORIENTED TROF THAT SHIFTS NE ACROSS THE
RGN...AS WELL AS THESE SYSTEMS ABILITY TO TRIGGER A LK EFFECT
RESPONSE...AND SOME MOISTURE INJECTIONS FM COASTAL STORMS PASSING
JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THE NET QPF IN THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS OVER THE
WHOLE PERIOD ARE ON THE ORDER OF A QUARTER OF AN INCH QPF...PLUS
OR MINUS A TENTH WITH A BIT MORE OVER MTN RIDGES.

WHILE THE MODEL SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT ON THE GENERAL SCENARIO...ALL
KEEPING THE SIGNIFICANT STORMS AT BAY TO OUR SOUTH...THEY DO VARY
ON THE TIMING OF FORCING MECHANISMS. FCA REMAINS UNCOMFORTABLY
CLOSE TO SHARP GRADIENTS OF PCPN AS EVIDENCED BY THE PLUMES AND
PERCENTAGES IN THE ENSEMBLE WPC OUTPUT.

FOR NOW THE BLEND IS THE BEST APPROACH TO ADDRESSING THIS DEGREE
OF UNCERTAINTY. TEMPS WILL REMAIN COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...WITH NR
NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS STILL TRENDING ABV NORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THIS LONG TERM PERIOD BRINGS THE LONGEST SUSTAINED COLD PERIOD
WE`VE SEEN THIS WINTER. THE 1ST CUTOFF AT 500 HPA LINGERS ONE
MORE DAY DEPARTING TO OUR EAST THURSDAY...AND CYCLOGENESIS ENSUES
IN THE GULF OF MAINE. HWVR THE SHRT WV PARADE CARVES OUT AND
REINFORCES THE FULL LATITUDE TROF IN THE EAST. IN ITS WAKE ARCTIC
AIR POURS SOUTH INTO THE RGN. THE COLDEST AIR IS USHERED INTO THE
RGN AS AN E-W CDFNT DROPS S INTO THE RGN AND COULD FOCUS SQUALLS
OR LES LATE WED.

OTRW THE RGN REMAINS UNDER A 500HPA CUT OFF. THE THREAT OF -SHSN CONTINUES
THROUGH THE EFP. TO THE FAR N...NW FLOW AND THE 500 HPA CUT OFF WILL
ENHANCE THE ACTIVITY OVER THE ADRNDKS. HWVR COVERAGE OF -SNSH WILL
DIMINISH TO MOSTLY N & W OF ALB. THE LES RESPONSE WILL ALSO DIMINISH
IN WAKE OF LAST CDFNT AS LLVL FLOW IS N-NW. SN ACCUMS WILL BE
LIGHT TO MODEST...BUT ONGOING FROM TIME TO TIME PARTICULARLY N & W
OF ALB. THE MOST NOTICEABLE THING ABOUT THE EFP WILL TEMPS WILL
TURN BLO NORMALS THU...AND KEEP TRENDING DOWN.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST TONIGHT...AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN TOMORROW.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH DECREASING
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. SOME CIRRUS WILL BE AROUND LATE TOMORROW MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT AGAIN VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL
00Z/MON FOR KGFL/KPSF/KALB/KPOU.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST PRIOR TO
06Z/SUN...AND THEN WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT. EXPECT LIGHT
AND VARIABLE DIRECTION WINDS OF 6 KTS OR LESS LATE TOMORROW
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO CONCERNS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS AS
ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

THE THIRD WINTER SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE SEASON WAS ISSUED
ON FEBRUARY 4TH.

HIGHLIGHTS...REFER TO THE PRODUCTS FOR DETAILS (ALBESFALY):

DUE TO BELOW NORMAL SNOW COVER AND RIVER ICE...POTENTIAL FOR
SNOWMELT AND ICE JAM FLOODING IS LOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

HOWEVER BY LATE IN THE WEEK TEMPS WILL TREND BELOW NORMALS...AND
ICE FORMATION WILL INCREASE ON AREA RIVERS AND LAKES.

ALTHOUGH WATER SUPPLY LEVELS ARE NOT A CONCERN AT THE MOMENT...THERE
IS CURRENTLY VERY LITTLE SNOW WATER AVAILABLE FOR RESERVOIR RECHARGE
ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. IT WILL TAKE A STEADY SUPPLY OF RAIN AND
SNOW THROUGH SPRING INTO SUMMER FOR RESERVOIRS TO MAINTAIN ADEQUATE
LEVELS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER/WASULA
NEAR TERM...11/NAS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER



000
FXUS61 KALY 070518
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1218 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK OVERNIGHT.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO CLOSE THE WEEKEND. TOMORROW
NIGHT INTO THE MIDWEEK A LARGE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SETTLE
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL SET UP THE REGION FOR A
PERIOD OF TYPICAL FEBRUARY WEATHER...CLOUDY...COLD WITH PERIODS OF
LIGHT SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR SEVERAL DAYS...AS TOTAL SNOW
AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
JUST SOME CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
BASED ON RADAR THERE COULD BE A FLURRY OR TWO IN THE SOUTHENR
ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...BUT TOO SMALL A CHANCE TO
MENTION. HAVE ADJUSTED SOME SKY GFIDS AND MINOR TOUCHES TO
TEMPERATURES THROUGH DAYBREAK. THE PREVIOUS AFD HAD A FEW MORE
DETAILS THROUGH TODAY AND IS BELOW...

A COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH FROM SE CANADA OVERNIGHT.
THIS WILL MAINLY RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS OVERNIGHT ACROSS
FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND A SLIGHT CHC OF
FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SRN DACKS. IT WILL REMAIN PARTLY
CLOUDY OR MOSTLY CLEAR FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST. LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL
BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S WITH SOME UPPER TEENS IN THE SHELTERED
VALLEYS. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT.

ON SUNDAY THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND KEEPING THE COLDEST AIR LOCKED UP NORTH OF
THE BOUNDARY. THERE WILL BE INTERVALS OF CLOUDS AND SUN ON SUNDAY
ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S EXCEPT FOR SOME UPPER 20S ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A SERIES OF 500 HPA SHORT WVS CARVE A TROF AND THEN A CUTOFF OVER
THE GRTLKS RGN THROUGH THIS PERIOD. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM GENERALLY
FAIR CONDS WILL PREVAIL SUN NT. MON THE ONE STRONG S STREAM SHORT
WV EJECTS SOUTH OF THE RGN AS A CSTL STORM...BUT IT MAY INJECT
SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE E PRTNS OF FCA AS THE CUT OFF
APPROACHES.

OTHERWISE THE 500 HPA CUT OFF SUPPORTS A WEAKENING CLIPPER LOW
OVER THE GRT LKS RGN MON INTO MIDWEEK. THIS LEAVES THE RGN UNDER
A SPRAWLING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THROUGH OUT THE ATMOSPHERE. YET
ANOTHER COASTAL LOW IS SPAWNED BY THIS 500 HPA LOW...BUT ALL
DETERMINISTIC GUID KEEPS IT WEAK AND TO THE SOUTH OF FCA TUE.

SO WHILE THERE IS UNANIMOUS AGREEMENT AMONG THE ECMWF/GFS/NAM/GEM
DETERMINISTIC RUNS IN KEEPING THE SIGNIFICANT ACTION TO OUR
EAST...ITS JUST TO OUR EAST AS SVRL NOR EASTER TYPE STORMS PASS
JUST BEYOND THE RGN. ATTM THE GUID IS FCST MOSTLY FISH STORMS.

THEN THERE THE SREFS WITH QPF FM 0.10 TO A 1.3 LIQ EQUIV OUTLIER...GEFS
A TRACE TO 0.5 INCH LIQ EQ.

SO THE CONSENSUS SUPPORTS FCA IN TYPICAL FEB REGIME. COLD...AS
ALL PCPN WILL BE -SN OR -SNSH...CLOUDY BUT QPF CONSTRAINED BY
LIMITED TO AT MOST MODEST MOISTURE. SNSH/-SN WILL BE FOCUSED BY PASSING
SHORT WVS...A NW-SE ORIENTED TROF THAT SHIFTS NE ACROSS THE
RGN...AS WELL AS THESE SYSTEMS ABILITY TO TRIGGER A LK EFFECT
RESPONSE...AND SOME MOISTURE INJECTIONS FM COASTAL STORMS PASSING
JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THE NET QPF IN THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS OVER THE
WHOLE PERIOD ARE ON THE ORDER OF A QUARTER OF AN INCH QPF...PLUS
OR MINUS A TENTH WITH A BIT MORE OVER MTN RIDGES.

WHILE THE MODEL SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT ON THE GENERAL SCENARIO...ALL
KEEPING THE SIGNIFICANT STORMS AT BAY TO OUR SOUTH...THEY DO VARY
ON THE TIMING OF FORCING MECHANISMS. FCA REMAINS UNCOMFORTABLY
CLOSE TO SHARP GRADIENTS OF PCPN AS EVIDENCED BY THE PLUMES AND
PERCENTAGES IN THE ENSEMBLE WPC OUTPUT.

FOR NOW THE BLEND IS THE BEST APPROACH TO ADDRESSING THIS DEGREE
OF UNCERTAINTY. TEMPS WILL REMAIN COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...WITH NR
NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS STILL TRENDING ABV NORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THIS LONG TERM PERIOD BRINGS THE LONGEST SUSTAINED COLD PERIOD
WE`VE SEEN THIS WINTER. THE 1ST CUTOFF AT 500 HPA LINGERS ONE
MORE DAY DEPARTING TO OUR EAST THURSDAY...AND CYCLOGENESIS ENSUES
IN THE GULF OF MAINE. HWVR THE SHRT WV PARADE CARVES OUT AND
REINFORCES THE FULL LATITUDE TROF IN THE EAST. IN ITS WAKE ARCTIC
AIR POURS SOUTH INTO THE RGN. THE COLDEST AIR IS USHERED INTO THE
RGN AS AN E-W CDFNT DROPS S INTO THE RGN AND COULD FOCUS SQUALLS
OR LES LATE WED.

OTRW THE RGN REMAINS UNDER A 500HPA CUT OFF. THE THREAT OF -SHSN CONTINUES
THROUGH THE EFP. TO THE FAR N...NW FLOW AND THE 500 HPA CUT OFF WILL
ENHANCE THE ACTIVITY OVER THE ADRNDKS. HWVR COVERAGE OF -SNSH WILL
DIMINISH TO MOSTLY N & W OF ALB. THE LES RESPONSE WILL ALSO DIMINISH
IN WAKE OF LAST CDFNT AS LLVL FLOW IS N-NW. SN ACCUMS WILL BE
LIGHT TO MODEST...BUT ONGOING FROM TIME TO TIME PARTICULARLY N & W
OF ALB. THE MOST NOTICEABLE THING ABOUT THE EFP WILL TEMPS WILL
TURN BLO NORMALS THU...AND KEEP TRENDING DOWN.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST TONIGHT...AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN TOMORROW.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH DECREASING
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. SOME CIRRUS WILL BE AROUND LATE TOMORROW MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT AGAIN VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL
00Z/MON FOR KGFL/KPSF/KALB/KPOU.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST PRIOR TO
06Z/SUN...AND THEN WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT. EXPECT LIGHT
AND VARIABLE DIRECTION WINDS OF 6 KTS OR LESS LATE TOMORROW
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO CONCERNS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS AS
ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

THE THIRD WINTER SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE SEASON WAS ISSUED
ON FEBRUARY 4TH.

HIGHLIGHTS...REFER TO THE PRODUCTS FOR DETAILS (ALBESFALY):

DUE TO BELOW NORMAL SNOW COVER AND RIVER ICE...POTENTIAL FOR
SNOWMELT AND ICE JAM FLOODING IS LOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

HOWEVER BY LATE IN THE WEEK TEMPS WILL TREND BELOW NORMALS...AND
ICE FORMATION WILL INCREASE ON AREA RIVERS AND LAKES.

ALTHOUGH WATER SUPPLY LEVELS ARE NOT A CONCERN AT THE MOMENT...THERE
IS CURRENTLY VERY LITTLE SNOW WATER AVAILABLE FOR RESERVOIR RECHARGE
ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. IT WILL TAKE A STEADY SUPPLY OF RAIN AND
SNOW THROUGH SPRING INTO SUMMER FOR RESERVOIRS TO MAINTAIN ADEQUATE
LEVELS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER/WASULA
NEAR TERM...11/NAS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER




000
FXUS61 KBOX 070330
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1030 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY. AN OCEAN STORM MAY BRING A PLOWABLE
SNOWFALL TO SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW ARE
LIKELY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO THURSDAY.
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT BRINGS BITTERLY COLD CONDITIONS THE END OF
THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
1025 PM UPDATE...
SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS THE REGION WITH JUST SOME THIN CIRRUS
CLOUDS. HAVE ADJUSTED THE SKY COVER GRIDS TO REFLECT MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES OVERNIGHT. DEWPOINTS HAVING A HARD TIME FALLING ALONG THE
SOUTH COAST. WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 10 MPH ACROSS MANY
INLAND LOCATIONS... AND WERE GUSTING TO 20 MPH AT NORTH ADAMS AT
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN NORTHERN BERKSHIRE COUNTY. THE NAM SHOWS
SW WINDS INCREASING TO 20-30 KTS AT 925 MB OVERNIGHT... SO HAVE
INCREASED WINDS A TAD IN THE GRIDS. LITTLE ADJUSTMENT TO
TEMPERATURES...EXCEPT ON NANTUCKET WHERE IT WAS STILL IN THE UPPER
30S.

LOOKING AHEAD... THE 18Z RUN OF THE NAM HAD DRAMATICALLY INCREASED
THE SNOWFALL POTENTIAL FOR OUR REGION... BUT THE NEW 00Z RUN OF
THE NAM HAS COME BACK IN LINE WITH OUR CURRENT THINKING FOR THE
UPCOMING STORM. MORE DETAILS ON THIS WITH OUR FORECAST PACKAGE
AROUND 4 AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY ...

NOT MUCH CHANGE WITH CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRES AT THE
SURFACE. THUS EXPECTING A DRY COLUMN SUPPORTING LOTS OF SUNSHINE
AND LIGHT WINDS...WHICH WILL MAKE TEMPS IN THE L40S FEEL EVEN
MILDER.

SUNDAY NIGHT ...

1035 QUEBEC SURFACE HIGH ADVECTS SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR SOUTHWARD
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MEANWHILE MID LEVEL SOUTHERN STREAM
TROUGH OVER THE GULF STATES THIS AFTERNOON INDUCES CYCLOGENESIS
OFF THE EAST COAST OF FL THIS EVENING AND THEN RAPIDLY
INTENSIFYING INTO A SUB 980 MB LOW/GALE CENTER WELL EAST OF THE
NC COAST SUN NIGHT. TYPICALLY THIS TRACK IS TOO FAR OFFSHORE TO
YIELD ACCUMULATING SNOW TO SOUTHEAST MA. HOWEVER THIS CYCLONE HAS
A VERY LARGE CIRCULATION/WCB/FIREHOSE IN ADDITION TO 1035 MB
SURFACE HIGH OVER QUEBEC. THUS SNOW COMES ONSHORE 06Z-12 MON AND
WILL LIKELY HAVE SOME OCEAN EFFECT SNOW /OES/ COMPONENT GIVEN NE
WINDS AND SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR BLEEDING IN FROM THE NORTH. BIG
DIFFERENCES WITH MODEL QPF WITH NAM/ARW/NMM MOST ROBUST. EC/GFS
AND RGEM MORE MODEST SO FOLLOWED A MODEL BLEND GIVEN UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DISCUSSION...
AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE FOR MUCH
IF NOT ALL OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THOUGH SIGNS CONTINUE TO SHOW
SOME DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH LATER THIS WEEK
ACROSS THE EAST. MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SIGNAL UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS THROUGH WED AND POSSIBLY INTO THU...THEN WILL START TO
SETTLE DOWN. HOWEVER...LOOKS LIKE WINTER TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH
IN WITH THE DRIER CONDITIONS LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

STILL PROBLEMS WITH SEPARATION BETWEEN SHORT WAVES IN THE OVERALL
CUTOFF LOW PRES/LONG WAVE TROUGH MON-WED...THOUGH DOES LOOK LIKE
SOME SETTLING IN WITH SOME OF THE DETAILS. HOWEVER...WITH UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE...WILL STILL SEE PERIODS OF PRECIP
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.

USED A BLEND OF MOST OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE ALONG WITH
ENSEMBLES WHICH GAVE REASONABLE CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

DETAILS...

MONDAY-TUESDAY...MODELS SETTLING IN WITH CONTINUE NE FLOW IN
PLACE. FIRST LOW PRES PASSES WELL SE OF NANTUCKET...BUT
COMBINATION OF THIS STRONG STORM /CENTRAL PRES FROM 970-978 HPA AS
IT PASSES MON AFTERNOON/ AND HIGH PRES RIDGING EXTENDING S OUT OF
QUEBEC ACROSS W NEW ENGLAND...VERY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT IN PLACE.
THIS WILL PRODUCE STRONG NE WINDS ACROSS E COASTAL
AREAS...GENERALLY S OF BOSTON. GUSTS MAY REACH UP TO 35-45 MPH
ALONG E COASTAL AREAS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...THEN WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH.

MODELS DO KEEP PUSHING NW FRINGE OF PRECIP INTO EASTERN AND
POSSIBLY CENTRAL AREAS...PLUS WILL LIKELY SEE COMBINATION OF OCEAN
EFFECT SNOW. NOTING AT LEAST CONDITIONAL CONDITIONS FOR LAKE
EFFECT ON BOTH GFS AND 4 KM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS LATE MON/MON NIGHT.

DID HAVE ISSUES WITH QPF FORECAST...THOUGH WITH STRONG ONSHORE
WINDS SHOULD SEE SOME ENHANCEMENT THERE. USED A BLEND OF WPC
GUIDANCE... 12Z GFS AND A TOUCH OF THE 15Z SREF...WITH HIGHEST
AMOUNTS ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z MONDAY WITH
INITIAL SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS LOW PASSES.

WITH THE COMBINATION OF INITIAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRONG
ONSHORE WINDS ENHANCING THE PRECIPITATION...EXPECT TO SEE BEST
CHANCE FOR SNOW ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS INTO PLYMOUTH
COUNTY. PARTIAL THICKNESSES SUPPORT MAINLY SNOW...THOUGH COULD SEE
SOME MIX WITH RAIN DURING TUESDAY WITH LIGHTER PRECIP. BASED ON
THIS...HAVE ISSUED WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THOSE AREAS MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF BUT NOT TOTALLY END DURING TUESDAY AS
UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL SITS CLOSE TO THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP
CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE AND KEEPING LIGHT SNOWFALL IN PLACE. WILL
LIKELY ALSO SEE A MIX WITH RAIN ALONG THE S COAST. BEST SHOT FOR
PRECIP WILL REMAIN ACROSS S COASTAL AREAS...THOUGH LOOKS TO BECOME
A BIT MORE SPOTTY TUE NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED FOR MOST OF THIS
PERIOD. WILL SEE CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. NOT A LOT
OF QPF TO DEAL WITH...MORE NUISANCE SNOW BUT COULD STILL SEE LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH MIDDAY WED. AS UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE
TROUGHING STARTS TO FLATTEN...NOTING AN ARCTIC FRONT IN THE NW
FLOW. EXPECT TO CROSS THE REGION LATE WED NIGHT OR EARLY
THU...WHICH WILL BE A DRY PASSAGE. EXPECT NW WINDS TO PICK UP ON
THU ALONG AS ARCTIC AIRMASS SHIFTS SE. HIGHS THU WILL ONLY BE IN
THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...EXPECT DRY TO VERY COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE.
ANOTHER REINFORCING ARCTIC FRONT CROSSES FRI NIGHT...WITH EVEN
COLDER AIR MOVING IN. CURRENT FORECAST SUGGESTS HIGHS ON SATURDAY
RUNNING AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS FOR MID FEBRUARY.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SW WINDS MAY GUST TO 20 KT IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF BERKSHIRE COUNTY AND THE WORCESTER HILLS.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
BECOMING NE TOWARD SUNSET.

SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR AND DRY THRU ABOUT MIDNIGHT. THEN LOWERING TO
MVFR WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SNOW OR MIX RAIN/SNOW TOWARD
DAYBREAK MON. NE WINDS GUSTING UP TO 35 KT CAPE COD AND ISLANDS
TOWARD 12Z MON.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE THRU SUN EVENING THEN LOWERING
LATE SUN NIGHT REGARDING ARRIVAL OF LOWER CIGS/VSBYS IN SNOW/RAIN.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MONDAY-TUESDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/IFR VSBYS IN -SN ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.
LOWEST CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS E MA/RI...WHERE THEY MAY SEE
PERIODS OF MODERATE SNOW IN OCEAN EFFECT ESPECIALLY SE COASTAL MA
/PLYMOUTH COUNTY/...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS LATE MON AND MON
NIGHT. MAY SEE MIXED -RN-SN ALONG E COAST TUE AFTERNOON. NE WIND
GUSTS UP TO 35 KT MON INTO MON NIGHT ALONG IMMEDIATE E COASTAL
MA...DIMINISHING TO AROUND 25 KT TUE.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT -SHSN TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION AS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. MAY SEE MIX WITH -RA ALONG S COAST
WED AFTERNOON. COULD SEE PERIODS OF MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR
CIGS/VSBYS... MAINLY WED-WED NIGHT. CONDITIONS SHOULD SLOWLY
IMPROVE TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THU. N-NE WIND GUSTS
AROUND 25 KT EARLY WED WILL DIMINISH BY AROUND MIDDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OVERNIGHT...W TO SW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KT OVER THE EASTERN MA
WATERS...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING TOWARD DAYBREAK.

SUNDAY...TRANQUIL WIND AND SEAS ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER AND GOOD
VSBY.

SUNDAY NIGHT ... NE WINDS LIKELY INCREASE TO GALE FORCE ACROSS THE
RI AND SOUTHERN MA WATERS. THUS GALE WARNINGS POSTED. LOW
PROBABILITY NORTH OF CAPE COD SO GALE WATCHES POSTED THERE. VSBY
LOWERING IN SNOW LATE. SEAS WILL BUILD RAPIDLY WITH POWERFUL LOW
PRES OFF THE NC COAST COMBINING WITH 1035 MB SURFACE HIGH OVER
QUEBEC.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...

MONDAY...GALE CENTER WILL PASS WELL SE OF NANTUCKET...BUT GALE
FORCE GUSTS WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND WELL NW OF THE CENTER. NE
WINDS GUSTING TO 35-45 KT...HIGHEST E AND S OF CAPE COD AND
NANTUCKET... WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE MORNING THEN WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND MON NIGHT. SEAS UP TO 14-18 FT
ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE MON AFTERNOON.
VSBY RESTRICTIONS FOR AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW MON-MON
NIGHT.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME. NE WINDS IN PLACE TUE AND TUE NIGHT...GUSTING UP
TO 25-30 KT...WITH SEAS UP TO 8-11 FT. EXPECT WINDS TO BACK TO
N-NW WITH GUSTS CONTINUING AT AROUND 25 KT. SEAS WILL BUILD AGAIN
ON TUESDAY...HIGHEST E AND S OF NANTUCKET...UP TO 9-14 KT AS
ANOTHER LOW PASSES SE OF NANTUCKET. VSBY RESTRICTIONS CONTINUE FOR
LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW.

THURSDAY...NW WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST UP TO 25-30 KT. LOW RISK OF
GUSTS UP TO 35 KT THU NIGHT E AND S OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET.
SEAS UP TO 7-11 FT ON THE SE OUTER WATERS. LOCAL VSBY RESTRICTIONS
IN SCT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS...BUT SHOULD IMPROVE THU
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRO TIDES LATE MON MORNING ARE HIGH WITH 11.2 FT AT BOSTON.
STRONG NE WINDS UP TO 40 KT WILL YIELD A STORM SURGE OF 1.5 FT TO
2.0 FT AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG WAVE
ACTION OF 12-18 FT JUST OFFSHORE WILL YIELD A RISK OF MODERATE
COASTAL FLOODING.

ETSS WAS A BIT HIGHER THAN ESTOFS AND SEEMS REASONABLE. WIND
FIELD DECREASES SUBSTANTIALLY NORTH OF PLYMOUTH COUNTY. THUS
THREAT OF COASTAL FLOODING IS LOWER FROM BOSTON NORTHWARD.
THEREFORE HAVE CONFINED THE COASTAL FLOOD WATCH SOUTH OF BOSTON
THRU PLYMOUTH TO CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET.

OTHER CONCERN IS BEACH EROSION GIVEN THE HIGH WATER LEVELS...STRONG
WAVE ACTION OVER MULTIPLE TIDE CYCLES. AGAIN APPEARS HIGHEST RISK
WILL BE SOUTH OF BOSTON. HOWEVER WILL HAVE TO MONITOR LATER MODEL
RUNS FOR POSSIBLE EXPANSION OF THE WATCH NORTHWARD.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MAZ019-022-024.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR MAZ018-019-021>024.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ231>235-237-254>256.
     GALE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ230-250-251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/EVT/GAF
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/EVT/GAF
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...NOCERA/EVT/GAF
MARINE...NOCERA/EVT/GAF
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NOCERA



000
FXUS61 KBOX 070330
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1030 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY. AN OCEAN STORM MAY BRING A PLOWABLE
SNOWFALL TO SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW ARE
LIKELY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO THURSDAY.
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT BRINGS BITTERLY COLD CONDITIONS THE END OF
THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
1025 PM UPDATE...
SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS THE REGION WITH JUST SOME THIN CIRRUS
CLOUDS. HAVE ADJUSTED THE SKY COVER GRIDS TO REFLECT MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES OVERNIGHT. DEWPOINTS HAVING A HARD TIME FALLING ALONG THE
SOUTH COAST. WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 10 MPH ACROSS MANY
INLAND LOCATIONS... AND WERE GUSTING TO 20 MPH AT NORTH ADAMS AT
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN NORTHERN BERKSHIRE COUNTY. THE NAM SHOWS
SW WINDS INCREASING TO 20-30 KTS AT 925 MB OVERNIGHT... SO HAVE
INCREASED WINDS A TAD IN THE GRIDS. LITTLE ADJUSTMENT TO
TEMPERATURES...EXCEPT ON NANTUCKET WHERE IT WAS STILL IN THE UPPER
30S.

LOOKING AHEAD... THE 18Z RUN OF THE NAM HAD DRAMATICALLY INCREASED
THE SNOWFALL POTENTIAL FOR OUR REGION... BUT THE NEW 00Z RUN OF
THE NAM HAS COME BACK IN LINE WITH OUR CURRENT THINKING FOR THE
UPCOMING STORM. MORE DETAILS ON THIS WITH OUR FORECAST PACKAGE
AROUND 4 AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY ...

NOT MUCH CHANGE WITH CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRES AT THE
SURFACE. THUS EXPECTING A DRY COLUMN SUPPORTING LOTS OF SUNSHINE
AND LIGHT WINDS...WHICH WILL MAKE TEMPS IN THE L40S FEEL EVEN
MILDER.

SUNDAY NIGHT ...

1035 QUEBEC SURFACE HIGH ADVECTS SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR SOUTHWARD
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MEANWHILE MID LEVEL SOUTHERN STREAM
TROUGH OVER THE GULF STATES THIS AFTERNOON INDUCES CYCLOGENESIS
OFF THE EAST COAST OF FL THIS EVENING AND THEN RAPIDLY
INTENSIFYING INTO A SUB 980 MB LOW/GALE CENTER WELL EAST OF THE
NC COAST SUN NIGHT. TYPICALLY THIS TRACK IS TOO FAR OFFSHORE TO
YIELD ACCUMULATING SNOW TO SOUTHEAST MA. HOWEVER THIS CYCLONE HAS
A VERY LARGE CIRCULATION/WCB/FIREHOSE IN ADDITION TO 1035 MB
SURFACE HIGH OVER QUEBEC. THUS SNOW COMES ONSHORE 06Z-12 MON AND
WILL LIKELY HAVE SOME OCEAN EFFECT SNOW /OES/ COMPONENT GIVEN NE
WINDS AND SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR BLEEDING IN FROM THE NORTH. BIG
DIFFERENCES WITH MODEL QPF WITH NAM/ARW/NMM MOST ROBUST. EC/GFS
AND RGEM MORE MODEST SO FOLLOWED A MODEL BLEND GIVEN UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DISCUSSION...
AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE FOR MUCH
IF NOT ALL OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THOUGH SIGNS CONTINUE TO SHOW
SOME DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH LATER THIS WEEK
ACROSS THE EAST. MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SIGNAL UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS THROUGH WED AND POSSIBLY INTO THU...THEN WILL START TO
SETTLE DOWN. HOWEVER...LOOKS LIKE WINTER TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH
IN WITH THE DRIER CONDITIONS LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

STILL PROBLEMS WITH SEPARATION BETWEEN SHORT WAVES IN THE OVERALL
CUTOFF LOW PRES/LONG WAVE TROUGH MON-WED...THOUGH DOES LOOK LIKE
SOME SETTLING IN WITH SOME OF THE DETAILS. HOWEVER...WITH UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE...WILL STILL SEE PERIODS OF PRECIP
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.

USED A BLEND OF MOST OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE ALONG WITH
ENSEMBLES WHICH GAVE REASONABLE CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

DETAILS...

MONDAY-TUESDAY...MODELS SETTLING IN WITH CONTINUE NE FLOW IN
PLACE. FIRST LOW PRES PASSES WELL SE OF NANTUCKET...BUT
COMBINATION OF THIS STRONG STORM /CENTRAL PRES FROM 970-978 HPA AS
IT PASSES MON AFTERNOON/ AND HIGH PRES RIDGING EXTENDING S OUT OF
QUEBEC ACROSS W NEW ENGLAND...VERY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT IN PLACE.
THIS WILL PRODUCE STRONG NE WINDS ACROSS E COASTAL
AREAS...GENERALLY S OF BOSTON. GUSTS MAY REACH UP TO 35-45 MPH
ALONG E COASTAL AREAS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...THEN WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH.

MODELS DO KEEP PUSHING NW FRINGE OF PRECIP INTO EASTERN AND
POSSIBLY CENTRAL AREAS...PLUS WILL LIKELY SEE COMBINATION OF OCEAN
EFFECT SNOW. NOTING AT LEAST CONDITIONAL CONDITIONS FOR LAKE
EFFECT ON BOTH GFS AND 4 KM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS LATE MON/MON NIGHT.

DID HAVE ISSUES WITH QPF FORECAST...THOUGH WITH STRONG ONSHORE
WINDS SHOULD SEE SOME ENHANCEMENT THERE. USED A BLEND OF WPC
GUIDANCE... 12Z GFS AND A TOUCH OF THE 15Z SREF...WITH HIGHEST
AMOUNTS ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z MONDAY WITH
INITIAL SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS LOW PASSES.

WITH THE COMBINATION OF INITIAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRONG
ONSHORE WINDS ENHANCING THE PRECIPITATION...EXPECT TO SEE BEST
CHANCE FOR SNOW ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS INTO PLYMOUTH
COUNTY. PARTIAL THICKNESSES SUPPORT MAINLY SNOW...THOUGH COULD SEE
SOME MIX WITH RAIN DURING TUESDAY WITH LIGHTER PRECIP. BASED ON
THIS...HAVE ISSUED WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THOSE AREAS MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF BUT NOT TOTALLY END DURING TUESDAY AS
UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL SITS CLOSE TO THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP
CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE AND KEEPING LIGHT SNOWFALL IN PLACE. WILL
LIKELY ALSO SEE A MIX WITH RAIN ALONG THE S COAST. BEST SHOT FOR
PRECIP WILL REMAIN ACROSS S COASTAL AREAS...THOUGH LOOKS TO BECOME
A BIT MORE SPOTTY TUE NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED FOR MOST OF THIS
PERIOD. WILL SEE CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. NOT A LOT
OF QPF TO DEAL WITH...MORE NUISANCE SNOW BUT COULD STILL SEE LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH MIDDAY WED. AS UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE
TROUGHING STARTS TO FLATTEN...NOTING AN ARCTIC FRONT IN THE NW
FLOW. EXPECT TO CROSS THE REGION LATE WED NIGHT OR EARLY
THU...WHICH WILL BE A DRY PASSAGE. EXPECT NW WINDS TO PICK UP ON
THU ALONG AS ARCTIC AIRMASS SHIFTS SE. HIGHS THU WILL ONLY BE IN
THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...EXPECT DRY TO VERY COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE.
ANOTHER REINFORCING ARCTIC FRONT CROSSES FRI NIGHT...WITH EVEN
COLDER AIR MOVING IN. CURRENT FORECAST SUGGESTS HIGHS ON SATURDAY
RUNNING AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS FOR MID FEBRUARY.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SW WINDS MAY GUST TO 20 KT IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF BERKSHIRE COUNTY AND THE WORCESTER HILLS.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
BECOMING NE TOWARD SUNSET.

SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR AND DRY THRU ABOUT MIDNIGHT. THEN LOWERING TO
MVFR WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SNOW OR MIX RAIN/SNOW TOWARD
DAYBREAK MON. NE WINDS GUSTING UP TO 35 KT CAPE COD AND ISLANDS
TOWARD 12Z MON.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE THRU SUN EVENING THEN LOWERING
LATE SUN NIGHT REGARDING ARRIVAL OF LOWER CIGS/VSBYS IN SNOW/RAIN.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MONDAY-TUESDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/IFR VSBYS IN -SN ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.
LOWEST CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS E MA/RI...WHERE THEY MAY SEE
PERIODS OF MODERATE SNOW IN OCEAN EFFECT ESPECIALLY SE COASTAL MA
/PLYMOUTH COUNTY/...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS LATE MON AND MON
NIGHT. MAY SEE MIXED -RN-SN ALONG E COAST TUE AFTERNOON. NE WIND
GUSTS UP TO 35 KT MON INTO MON NIGHT ALONG IMMEDIATE E COASTAL
MA...DIMINISHING TO AROUND 25 KT TUE.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT -SHSN TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION AS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. MAY SEE MIX WITH -RA ALONG S COAST
WED AFTERNOON. COULD SEE PERIODS OF MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR
CIGS/VSBYS... MAINLY WED-WED NIGHT. CONDITIONS SHOULD SLOWLY
IMPROVE TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THU. N-NE WIND GUSTS
AROUND 25 KT EARLY WED WILL DIMINISH BY AROUND MIDDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OVERNIGHT...W TO SW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KT OVER THE EASTERN MA
WATERS...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING TOWARD DAYBREAK.

SUNDAY...TRANQUIL WIND AND SEAS ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER AND GOOD
VSBY.

SUNDAY NIGHT ... NE WINDS LIKELY INCREASE TO GALE FORCE ACROSS THE
RI AND SOUTHERN MA WATERS. THUS GALE WARNINGS POSTED. LOW
PROBABILITY NORTH OF CAPE COD SO GALE WATCHES POSTED THERE. VSBY
LOWERING IN SNOW LATE. SEAS WILL BUILD RAPIDLY WITH POWERFUL LOW
PRES OFF THE NC COAST COMBINING WITH 1035 MB SURFACE HIGH OVER
QUEBEC.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...

MONDAY...GALE CENTER WILL PASS WELL SE OF NANTUCKET...BUT GALE
FORCE GUSTS WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND WELL NW OF THE CENTER. NE
WINDS GUSTING TO 35-45 KT...HIGHEST E AND S OF CAPE COD AND
NANTUCKET... WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE MORNING THEN WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND MON NIGHT. SEAS UP TO 14-18 FT
ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE MON AFTERNOON.
VSBY RESTRICTIONS FOR AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW MON-MON
NIGHT.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME. NE WINDS IN PLACE TUE AND TUE NIGHT...GUSTING UP
TO 25-30 KT...WITH SEAS UP TO 8-11 FT. EXPECT WINDS TO BACK TO
N-NW WITH GUSTS CONTINUING AT AROUND 25 KT. SEAS WILL BUILD AGAIN
ON TUESDAY...HIGHEST E AND S OF NANTUCKET...UP TO 9-14 KT AS
ANOTHER LOW PASSES SE OF NANTUCKET. VSBY RESTRICTIONS CONTINUE FOR
LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW.

THURSDAY...NW WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST UP TO 25-30 KT. LOW RISK OF
GUSTS UP TO 35 KT THU NIGHT E AND S OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET.
SEAS UP TO 7-11 FT ON THE SE OUTER WATERS. LOCAL VSBY RESTRICTIONS
IN SCT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS...BUT SHOULD IMPROVE THU
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRO TIDES LATE MON MORNING ARE HIGH WITH 11.2 FT AT BOSTON.
STRONG NE WINDS UP TO 40 KT WILL YIELD A STORM SURGE OF 1.5 FT TO
2.0 FT AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG WAVE
ACTION OF 12-18 FT JUST OFFSHORE WILL YIELD A RISK OF MODERATE
COASTAL FLOODING.

ETSS WAS A BIT HIGHER THAN ESTOFS AND SEEMS REASONABLE. WIND
FIELD DECREASES SUBSTANTIALLY NORTH OF PLYMOUTH COUNTY. THUS
THREAT OF COASTAL FLOODING IS LOWER FROM BOSTON NORTHWARD.
THEREFORE HAVE CONFINED THE COASTAL FLOOD WATCH SOUTH OF BOSTON
THRU PLYMOUTH TO CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET.

OTHER CONCERN IS BEACH EROSION GIVEN THE HIGH WATER LEVELS...STRONG
WAVE ACTION OVER MULTIPLE TIDE CYCLES. AGAIN APPEARS HIGHEST RISK
WILL BE SOUTH OF BOSTON. HOWEVER WILL HAVE TO MONITOR LATER MODEL
RUNS FOR POSSIBLE EXPANSION OF THE WATCH NORTHWARD.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MAZ019-022-024.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR MAZ018-019-021>024.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ231>235-237-254>256.
     GALE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ230-250-251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/EVT/GAF
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/EVT/GAF
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...NOCERA/EVT/GAF
MARINE...NOCERA/EVT/GAF
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NOCERA




000
FXUS61 KALY 070300
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1000 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK OVERNIGHT.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO CLOSE THE WEEKEND. TOMORROW
NIGHT INTO THE MIDWEEK A LARGE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SETTLE
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL SET UP THE REGION FOR A
PERIOD OF TYPICAL FEBRUARY WEATHER...CLOUDY...COLD WITH PERIODS OF
LIGHT SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR SEVERAL DAYS...AS TOTAL SNOW
AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 958 PM EST...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DRIFT OFF THE NJ
AND SRN NEW ENGLAND COAST OVERNIGHT...AS A WEAK WARM FRONT MOVES
ACROSS SE QUEBEC. A COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH FROM SE
CANADA OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL MAINLY RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT ACROSS FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND
A SLIGHT CHC OF FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SRN DACKS. IT
WILL REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY OR MOSTLY CLEAR FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST.
LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S WITH SOME UPPER
TEENS IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM
OVERNIGHT.

ON SUNDAY THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND KEEPING THE COLDEST AIR LOCKED UP NORTH OF
THE BOUNDARY. THERE WILL BE INTERVALS OF CLOUDS AND SUN ON SUNDAY
ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S EXCEPT FOR SOME UPPER 20S ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A SERIES OF 500 HPA SHORT WVS CARVE A TROF AND THEN A CUTOFF OVER
THE GRTLKS RGN THROUGH THIS PERIOD. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM GENERALLY
FAIR CONDS WILL PREVAIL SUN NT. MON THE ONE STRONG S STREAM SHORT
WV EJECTS SOUTH OF THE RGN AS A CSTL STORM...BUT IT MAY INJECT
SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE E PRTNS OF FCA AS THE CUT OFF
APPROACHES.

OTHERWISE THE 500 HPA CUT OFF SUPPORTS A WEAKENING CLIPPER LOW
OVER THE GRT LKS RGN MON INTO MIDWEEK. THIS LEAVES THE RGN UNDER
A SPRAWLING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THROUGH OUT THE ATMOSPHERE. YET
ANOTHER COASTAL LOW IS SPAWNED BY THIS 500 HPA LOW...BUT ALL
DETERMINISTIC GUID KEEPS IT WEAK AND TO THE SOUTH OF FCA TUE.

SO WHILE THERE IS UNANIMOUS AGREEMENT AMONG THE ECMWF/GFS/NAM/GEM
DETERMINISTIC RUNS IN KEEPING THE SIGNIFICANT ACTION TO OUR
EAST...ITS JUST TO OUR EAST AS SVRL NOR EASTER TYPE STORMS PASS
JUST BEYOND THE RGN. ATTM THE GUID IS FCST MOSTLY FISH STORMS.

THEN THERE THE SREFS WITH QPF FM 0.10 TO A 1.3 LIQ EQUIV OUTLIER...GEFS
A TRACE TO 0.5 INCH LIQ EQ.

SO THE CONSENSUS SUPPORTS FCA IN TYPICAL FEB REGIME. COLD...AS
ALL PCPN WILL BE -SN OR -SNSH...CLOUDY BUT QPF CONSTRAINED BY
LIMITED TO AT MOST MODEST MOISTURE. SNSH/-SN WILL BE FOCUSED BY PASSING
SHORT WVS...A NW-SE ORIENTED TROF THAT SHIFTS NE ACROSS THE
RGN...AS WELL AS THESE SYSTEMS ABILITY TO TRIGGER A LK EFFECT
RESPONSE...AND SOME MOISTURE INJECTIONS FM COASTAL STORMS PASSING
JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THE NET QPF IN THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS OVER THE
WHOLE PERIOD ARE ON THE ORDER OF A QUARTER OF AN INCH QPF...PLUS
OR MINUS A TENTH WITH A BIT MORE OVER MTN RIDGES.

WHILE THE MODEL SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT ON THE GENERAL SCENARIO...ALL
KEEPING THE SIGNIFICANT STORMS AT BAY TO OUR SOUTH...THEY DO VARY
ON THE TIMING OF FORCING MECHANISMS. FCA REMAINS UNCOMFORTABLY
CLOSE TO SHARP GRADIENTS OF PCPN AS EVIDENCED BY THE PLUMES AND
PERCENTAGES IN THE ENSEMBLE WPC OUTPUT.

FOR NOW THE BLEND IS THE BEST APPROACH TO ADDRESSING THIS DEGREE
OF UNCERTAINTY. TEMPS WILL REMAIN COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...WITH NR
NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS STILL TRENDING ABV NORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THIS LONG TERM PERIOD BRINGS THE LONGEST SUSTAINED COLD PERIOD
WE`VE SEEN THIS WINTER. THE 1ST CUTOFF AT 500 HPA LINGERS ONE
MORE DAY DEPARTING TO OUR EAST THURSDAY...AND CYCLOGENESIS ENSUES
IN THE GULF OF MAINE. HWVR THE SHRT WV PARADE CARVES OUT AND
REINFORCES THE FULL LATITUDE TROF IN THE EAST. IN ITS WAKE ARCTIC
AIR POURS SOUTH INTO THE RGN. THE COLDEST AIR IS USHERED INTO THE
RGN AS AN E-W CDFNT DROPS S INTO THE RGN AND COULD FOCUS SQUALLS
OR LES LATE WED.

OTRW THE RGN REMAINS UNDER A 500HPA CUT OFF. THE THREAT OF -SHSN CONTINUES
THROUGH THE EFP. TO THE FAR N...NW FLOW AND THE 500 HPA CUT OFF WILL
ENHANCE THE ACTIVITY OVER THE ADRNDKS. HWVR COVERAGE OF -SNSH WILL
DIMINISH TO MOSTLY N & W OF ALB. THE LES RESPONSE WILL ALSO DIMINISH
IN WAKE OF LAST CDFNT AS LLVL FLOW IS N-NW. SN ACCUMS WILL BE
LIGHT TO MODEST...BUT ONGOING FROM TIME TO TIME PARTICULARLY N & W
OF ALB. THE MOST NOTICEABLE THING ABOUT THE EFP WILL TEMPS WILL
TURN BLO NORMALS THU...AND KEEP TRENDING DOWN.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST TONIGHT...AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN TOMORROW.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH DECREASING
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. SOME CIRRUS WILL BE AROUND LATE TOMORROW MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT AGAIN VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL
00Z/MON FOR KGFL/KPSF/KALB/KPOU.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST PRIOR TO
06Z/SUN...AND THEN WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT. EXPECT LIGHT
AND VARIABLE DIRECTION WINDS OF 6 KTS OR LESS LATE TOMORROW
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO CONCERNS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS AS
ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

THE THIRD WINTER SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE SEASON WAS ISSUED
ON FEBRUARY 4TH.

HIGHLIGHTS...REFER TO THE PRODUCTS FOR DETAILS (ALBESFALY):

DUE TO BELOW NORMAL SNOW COVER AND RIVER ICE...POTENTIAL FOR
SNOWMELT AND ICE JAM FLOODING IS LOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

HOWEVER BY LATE IN THE WEEK TEMPS WILL TREND BELOW NORMALS...AND
ICE FORMATION WILL INCREASE ON AREA RIVERS AND LAKES.

ALTHOUGH WATER SUPPLY LEVELS ARE NOT A CONCERN AT THE MOMENT...THERE
IS CURRENTLY VERY LITTLE SNOW WATER AVAILABLE FOR RESERVOIR RECHARGE
ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. IT WILL TAKE A STEADY SUPPLY OF RAIN AND
SNOW THROUGH SPRING INTO SUMMER FOR RESERVOIRS TO MAINTAIN ADEQUATE
LEVELS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER/WASULA
NEAR TERM...11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER




000
FXUS61 KOKX 070240
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
940 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY.
INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST US COAST WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST...MOVING SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. AN ACTIVE WINTER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK AS SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE REGION.
HIGH PRESSURE MAY RETURN AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH PASSES WELL TO THE NORTH TONIGHT. MAIN
IMPACT WILL BE SOME MAINLY THIN CIRRUS CROSSING THE AREA...WITH A
MAINLY CLEAR SKY EXPECTED AS A RESULT.

AS WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING...SHOULD END UP WITH
DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT. STILL APPEAR
ON TRACK FOR LOWS TO FALL WELL INTO THE TEENS INLAND AND LOWER
AND MIDDLE 20S FOR MOST OTHER LOCATIONS...WITH SOME LOW 30S
POSSIBLE IN THE NYC METRO.

FOR SUNDAY...A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY CONDITION WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS
AND WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION ON SW WINDS WILL HELP TEMPS RISE
CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SPLIT FLOW WITH MODEL IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW
OFF THE SE US COAST SUN EVENING PIVOTING NE SUN NIGHT TO SE OF THE
40/70 BENCHMARK MONDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE A SECOND LARGER CLOSED LOW
DEVELOPING LOW DIGS INTO THE EASTERN 1/2 OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS CONTINUES TO RESULT IN
SUBTLE DIFFERENCES (150 MILE SPREAD) IN TRACK OF AN INTENSIFYING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES FROM OFF THE NC COAST SUN EVENING AND
THEN SE OF THE 40/70 LAT/LON BENCHMARK ON MONDAY. THIS IS
ACCENTUATING DIFFERENCES IN THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE DEFORMATION
BANDING AND PRECIPITATION SHIELD...WITH SNOWFALL VARYING ANYWHERE
FROM A TRACE TO INCH FROM W TO E (GFS/ECMWF)...OR TRACE TO 2
INCHES WEST TO 2 TO 4 INCHES EAST (GEM/NAM). OVERALL...A SLIGHT
EASTWARD AND DRIER TREND HAS BEEN NOTED WITH THE 12Z GUIDANCE
VERSUS 00Z.

IN TERMS OF ENSEMBLES...WESTERN LYING 15Z SREF MEAN IS HOLDING
FIRM WITH AROUND 1/2 TO 1 INCH QPF ACROSS THE REGION WITH MEAN
LYING IN THE MIDDLE OF A TRI- MODAL PATTERN. MEANWHILE 12Z GEFS
HAS MEAN OF .05 TO .1 INCH QPF AREAWIDE...WHICH IS BETWEEN THE
STRONG CLUSTERING AROUND THE OPERATIONAL GFS OF ONLY A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AREA WIDE...TO A HANDFUL OF MEMBERS WITH
1/4 TO 1/2 INCH QPF.

00Z AND 12Z SBU ENSEMBLE SENSITIVITY INDICATING ENSEMBLE SPREAD
IS ON THE NW SIDE OF THE GEFS/ECMWF/CMC ENSEMBLE MEANS FOR THE
LOW TRACK...WITH SENSITIVITY LYING IN THE STRENGTH AND
INTERACTION OF THE AFORE MENTIONED UPPER LOWS. THIS NW SPREAD
PATTERN...HAS MANY TIMES FAVORED WESTERN MOST SOLUTIONS OR
WESTWARD TREND IN LOW PRESSURE TRACK.

BASED ON THE ABOVE...HESITANT TO MAKE MANY CHANGES TO THE CURRENT
FORECAST...PARTICULARLY TOWARDS THE DRIER DETERMINISTIC TREND. A
BLEND OF DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE QPF PROBABILITIES INDICATING
INCREASING LIKELIHOOD FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING EAST OF NYC AND HUDSON RIVER.
LOWER PROBABILITIES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WEST OF THE NYC
METRO AND HUDSON RIVER. PRECIPITATION SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE FORM
OF SNOW...BUT MAY INITIALLY START AS A MIX WITH RAIN ACROSS
EASTERN LONG ISLAND DUE TO WARM BOUNDARY LAYER.

WILL CONTINUE WITH A GOING FORECAST FOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY WITH...

A LIKELY SCENARIO OF A DUSTING TO COUPLE INCHES ACROSS NYC METRO
AND POINTS WEST AND 2 TO 4 INCHES TOWARDS EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND
SE CT.

A CHANCE SCENARIO FOR A WESTWARD SHIFT...AND DOUBLING OF THESE
AMOUNTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONFIDENCE THIS PERIOD IS LOW AS MODELS AND ENSEMBLES HAVE NOT COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE WINTER PATTERN FOR
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. INTENSE OFFSHORE LOW WILL CONTINUE MOVING
FURTHER NE AWAY FROM COAST MONDAY NIGHT. RIGHT BEHIND THIS SYSTEM IS
THE CONTINUATION OF A VERY ANOMALOUS PATTERN. BASED ON THE 12Z
GEFS...THE WESTERN NORTH AMERICA RIDGING HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE
BETWEEN 2 AND 3 SD ABOVE NORMAL. THE LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO
THE EASTERN STATES IS BETWEEN 3 AND 4 SD BELOW NORMAL. THIS TYPE OF
PATTERN IS USUALLY CAUSE FOR CONCERN AND MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE
SHOWING QUITE A LARGE SPREAD WITH IMPORTANT FEATURES AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT. SOME OF THIS COULD BE WITH HOW THEY HANDLE THE FIRST LOW
THAT MOVES AWAY FROM THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...A VERY ENERGETIC LONGWAVE TROUGH
SETS UP OVER THE EASTERN STATES. A PARENT LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE LAKES...TRANSFERRING SOMEWHERE NEAR THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
COAST. THIS NEW WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE ENE AWAY FROM
THE COAST TO SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF OF THE 40/70 BENCHMARK.
THERE IS A GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS AMONG THE DETERMINISTIC
MODELS...BUT THEY VARY IN HOW PRECIPITATION IS GENERATED DUE TO
PLACEMENT OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND AMPLITUDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. THEY SEEM TO BE KEYING ON AN INVERTED TROUGH TYPE
SIGNATURE. THE 12Z GFS/GEFS/CMC/CMC ENSEMBLE SEEM TO HAVE THIS
SETTING UP NEAR THE AREA FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE 12Z ECMWF HAS THIS SETTING UP A BIT FURTHER SOUTH
AWAY FROM OUR CWA. THE 15Z SREF MEAN IS SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF IDEA
AS WELL AS THE 12Z NAM. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF ENERGY WITHIN THIS
TROUGH AND SUBTLE CHANGES COULD MAKE A DIFFERENCE WHERE BEST LIFT
SETS UP. MODELS HAVE ALSO SHOWN PRETTY DRASTIC CHANGES WITH
IMPORTANT DYNAMICS OVER THE LAST FEW WEEKS...WHICH LEADS TO A
LOWER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.

WILL HOLD ONTO LIKELY POPS THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. FEEL CONTINUITY
IS THE WAY TO GO HERE AND HOPEFULLY AS WE GET CLOSER...WE WILL HAVE
A BETTER IDEA FOR WHERE THE INVERTED TROUGH AND BEST LIFT FROM UPPER
ENERGY WILL SET UP. THE TAKE HOME MESSAGE IS ACCUMULATING LIGHT SNOW
IS POSSIBLE AT SOME POINT MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER NE ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT ANOMALOUS TROUGH IS LIKELY TO REMAIN OVERHEAD.
CANNOT RULE OUT LIGHT SNOW WEDNESDAY...BUT FOR NOW IT APPEARS BEST
LIFT SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA. UPPER TROF AXIS SHIFTS EAST THURSDAY.
POPS TAPER DOWN TO CHANCE WEDNESDAY AND THEN SLIGHT CHANCE ON
THURSDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS DEEP UPPER LOW SETS UP ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CANADA. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH DRY AS BEST MOISTURE AXIS HAS
SHIFTED OFFSHORE FROM EARLIER WEEK ACTIVITY. ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS INTO
THE AREA SATURDAY. THE 12Z ECMWF HAS 850 HPA TEMPS DROPPING TO
BETWEEN -22C TO -26C.

FORECAST TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE LONG
TERM...WITH INCREASING PROBABILITY OF A SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR AND WELL
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AT THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST INTO SUNDAY
EVENING.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGHOUT TONIGHT...AND SHOULD
REMAIN SO INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS BECOME SE/E THEN ENE-NE AT
UNDER 10 KT LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY SUNDAY EVENING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR IN THE EVENING...THEN MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE
LATE...ESPECIALLY AT EASTERN TERMINALS IN -SN...POSSIBLY MIXED
WITH RAIN AT THE START FOR SOUTHERN/EASTERN TERMINALS. NE WINDS
G20-30+KT POSSIBLE. HIGHEST GUSTS EASTERN CT/LONG ISLAND
TERMINALS.
.MONDAY...MVFR OR LOWER LIKELY IN SNOW. NE-N WINDS G20-30KT
WESTERN TERMINALS AND 30-40KT EASTERN TERMINALS POSSIBLE.
.MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER LIKELY IN SNOW. MIXED
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.
N-NE WINDS G15-25KT POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY.
.WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN -SN. W-NW WINDS
G20-25KT POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
MADE MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.



SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON ALL WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY
WITH A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING
COASTAL LOW SUN NIGHT WITH GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN OCEAN WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUING
INTO MONDAY. POTENTIAL FOR GALES ON THE WESTERN OCEAN WATERS AND
EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND/BAYS. SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON
REMAINDER OF THE WATERS. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
TRACK OF LOW PRESSURE...AND IF IT TRACKS CLOSER TO THE COAST...THE
GALE THREAT WILL MOVE WESTWARD.

SCA IS LIKELY ON MOST WATERS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS MAY
TEMPORARILY DECREASE TUE NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT SEAS ON THE
OCEAN WILL REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT. WINDS THEN INCREASE ABOVE SCA LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THRU
MON...WITH LOW PROB FOR MODERATE PRECIPITATION. MOST IF NOT ALL
OF THE PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS LIKELY TO BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW
AT THIS TIME.

WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE MON NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
POTENTIAL FOR MINOR COASTAL IMPACTS MONDAY INTO MIDWEEK WITH A NEW
MOON ON MONDAY AND A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURES AFFECTING THE REGION.

AN INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE WILL HAVE NE/N WINDS INCREASING TO
POTENTIALLY GALE FORCE SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO MONDAY.
BASED ON A TRACK OF INTENSIFYING LOW THAT SHOULD BE SE OF THE
40/70 LAT/LON BENCHMARK AND COLD AIR DAMMING SIGNATURE...WOULD
EXPECT POTENTIAL FOR WINDS TO BE BACKED MORE TO THE N THAN NE.
THIS WOULD FAVOR THE LOWER SURGE GUIDANCE FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT HIGH TIDE CYCLES...WHICH WOULD KEEP IMPACTS MINOR AND
LIKELY LIMITED TO THE MOST VULNERABLE LOCALES. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR.

AS WE HEAD INTO TUESDAYS HIGH TIDE CYCLES...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
WINDS TO VEER MORE TO THE NE AS ADDITIONAL WAVE/S OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACK TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. THE SPRING ASTRONOMICAL TIDES
AND MULTI-TIDAL CYCLE NATURE OF THE EVENT WILL FAVOR ADDITIONAL
MINOR FLOODING...WITH POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD MINOR TO MODERATE
IMPACTS IN THE BACK BAY AREAS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT TO 6 PM EST
     MONDAY FOR ANZ335-338-345.
     GALE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ330-340-355.
     GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ350-353.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/DS/NV
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/DS/NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...MALOIT/DS/NV
HYDROLOGY...DS/NV
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 070024
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
724 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. AN OCEAN STORM MAY BRING A PLOWABLE SNOWFALL
TO SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS
MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW ARE LIKELY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...AND POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO THURSDAY. AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT BRINGS BITTERLY COLD CONDITIONS THE END OF THE WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...

650 PM UPDATE...
BAND OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
AREAS AT 23Z AS SEEN ON LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY. ALSO NOTING
SOME MID CLOUDS ACROSS S VT/NW MA THAT HAVE DEVELOPED SINCE
SUNSET THAT MAY CROSS INTO N CENTRAL AND NE MA THROUGH 03Z BEFORE
DISSIPATING. ADJUSTED SKY COVER TO MATCH UP WITH CURRENT
CONDITIONS.

DEWPTS A BIT LOWER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST SO ADJUSTED TO BRING
CURRENT. DO AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTER THAT DEWPTS SHOULD
SLOWLY RISE AROUND OR AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH LIGHT SW WINDS IN PLACE.

REMAINDER OF FORECAST IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE. HAVE UPDATED TO BRING
CONDITIONS CURRENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT PROVIDES DRY WEATHER TONIGHT ALONG WITH HIGH
PRES AT THE SURFACE JUST SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL RESULT IN
SW PRES GRADIENT/SURFACE WINDS AND YIELDING TEMPS NOT AS COLD AS
LAST NIGHT AS DEWPTS CLIMB INTO THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

SUNDAY ...

NOT MUCH CHANGE WITH CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRES AT THE
SURFACE. THUS EXPECTING A DRY COLUMN SUPPORTING LOTS OF SUNSHINE
AND LIGHT WINDS...WHICH WILL MAKE TEMPS IN THE L40S FEEL EVEN
MILDER.

SUNDAY NIGHT ...

1035 QUEBEC SURFACE HIGH ADVECTS SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR SOUTHWARD
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MEANWHILE MID LEVEL SOUTHERN STREAM
TROUGH OVER THE GULF STATES THIS AFTERNOON INDUCES CYCLOGENESIS
OFF THE EAST COAST OF FL THIS EVENING AND THEN RAPIDLY
INTENSIFYING INTO A SUB 980 MB LOW/GALE CENTER WELL EAST OF THE
NC COAST SUN NIGHT. TYPICALLY THIS TRACK IS TOO FAR OFFSHORE TO
YIELD ACCUMULATING SNOW TO SOUTHEAST MA. HOWEVER THIS CYCLONE HAS
A VERY LARGE CIRCULATION/WCB/FIREHOSE IN ADDITION TO 1035 MB
SURFACE HIGH OVER QUEBEC. THUS SNOW COMES ONSHORE 06Z-12 MON AND
WILL LIKELY HAVE SOME OCEAN EFFECT SNOW /OES/ COMPONENT GIVEN NE
WINDS AND SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR BLEEDING IN FROM THE NORTH. BIG
DIFFERENCES WITH MODEL QPF WITH NAM/ARW/NMM MOST ROBUST. EC/GFS
AND RGEM MORE MODEST SO FOLLOWED A MODEL BLEND GIVEN UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DISCUSSION...
AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE FOR MUCH
IF NOT ALL OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THOUGH SIGNS CONTINUE TO SHOW
SOME DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH LATER THIS WEEK
ACROSS THE EAST. MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SIGNAL UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS THROUGH WED AND POSSIBLY INTO THU...THEN WILL START TO
SETTLE DOWN. HOWEVER...LOOKS LIKE WINTER TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH
IN WITH THE DRIER CONDITIONS LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

STILL PROBLEMS WITH SEPARATION BETWEEN SHORT WAVES IN THE OVERALL
CUTOFF LOW PRES/LONG WAVE TROUGH MON-WED...THOUGH DOES LOOK LIKE
SOME SETTLING IN WITH SOME OF THE DETAILS. HOWEVER...WITH UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE...WILL STILL SEE PERIODS OF PRECIP
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.

USED A BLEND OF MOST OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE ALONG WITH
ENSEMBLES WHICH GAVE REASONABLE CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

DETAILS...

MONDAY-TUESDAY...MODELS SETTLING IN WITH CONTINUE NE FLOW IN
PLACE. FIRST LOW PRES PASSES WELL SE OF NANTUCKET...BUT
COMBINATION OF THIS STRONG STORM /CENTRAL PRES FROM 970-978 HPA AS
IT PASSES MON AFTERNOON/ AND HIGH PRES RIDGING EXTENDING S OUT OF
QUEBEC ACROSS W NEW ENGLAND...VERY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT IN PLACE.
THIS WILL PRODUCE STRONG NE WINDS ACROSS E COASTAL
AREAS...GENERALLY S OF BOSTON. GUSTS MAY REACH UP TO 35-45 MPH
ALONG E COASTAL AREAS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...THEN WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH.

MODELS DO KEEP PUSHING NW FRINGE OF PRECIP INTO EASTERN AND
POSSIBLY CENTRAL AREAS...PLUS WILL LIKELY SEE COMBINATION OF OCEAN
EFFECT SNOW. NOTING AT LEAST CONDITIONAL CONDITIONS FOR LAKE
EFFECT ON BOTH GFS AND 4 KM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS LATE MON/MON NIGHT.

DID HAVE ISSUES WITH QPF FORECAST...THOUGH WITH STRONG ONSHORE
WINDS SHOULD SEE SOME ENHANCEMENT THERE. USED A BLEND OF WPC
GUIDANCE... 12Z GFS AND A TOUCH OF THE 15Z SREF...WITH HIGHEST
AMOUNTS ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z MONDAY WITH
INITIAL SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS LOW PASSES.

WITH THE COMBINATION OF INITIAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRONG
ONSHORE WINDS ENHANCING THE PRECIPITATION...EXPECT TO SEE BEST
CHANCE FOR SNOW ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS INTO PLYMOUTH
COUNTY. PARTIAL THICKNESSES SUPPORT MAINLY SNOW...THOUGH COULD SEE
SOME MIX WITH RAIN DURING TUESDAY WITH LIGHTER PRECIP. BASED ON
THIS...HAVE ISSUED WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THOSE AREAS MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF BUT NOT TOTALLY END DURING TUESDAY AS
UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL SITS CLOSE TO THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP
CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE AND KEEPING LIGHT SNOWFALL IN PLACE. WILL
LIKELY ALSO SEE A MIX WITH RAIN ALONG THE S COAST. BEST SHOT FOR
PRECIP WILL REMAIN ACROSS S COASTAL AREAS...THOUGH LOOKS TO BECOME
A BIT MORE SPOTTY TUE NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED FOR MOST OF THIS
PERIOD. WILL SEE CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. NOT A LOT
OF QPF TO DEAL WITH...MORE NUISANCE SNOW BUT COULD STILL SEE LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH MIDDAY WED. AS UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE
TROUGHING STARTS TO FLATTEN...NOTING AN ARCTIC FRONT IN THE NW
FLOW. EXPECT TO CROSS THE REGION LATE WED NIGHT OR EARLY
THU...WHICH WILL BE A DRY PASSAGE. EXPECT NW WINDS TO PICK UP ON
THU ALONG AS ARCTIC AIRMASS SHIFTS SE. HIGHS THU WILL ONLY BE IN
THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...EXPECT DRY TO VERY COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE.
ANOTHER REINFORCING ARCTIC FRONT CROSSES FRI NIGHT...WITH EVEN
COLDER AIR MOVING IN. CURRENT FORECAST SUGGESTS HIGHS ON SATURDAY
RUNNING AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS FOR MID FEBRUARY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. DRY CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT SW
WINDS. MAY SEE SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 KT ACROSS OUTER CAPE COD
AND NANTUCKET THROUGH 03Z.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
BECOMING NE TOWARD SUNSET.

SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR AND DRY THRU ABOUT MIDNIGHT. THEN LOWERING TO
MVFR WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SNOW OR MIX RAIN/SNOW TOWARD
DAYBREAK MON. NE WINDS GUSTING UP TO 35 KT CAPE COD AND ISLANDS
TOWARD 12Z MON.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE THRU SUN EVENING THEN LOWERING
LATE SUN NIGHT REGARDING ARRIVAL OF LOWER CIGS/VSBYS IN SNOW/RAIN.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MONDAY-TUESDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/IFR VSBYS IN -SN ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.
LOWEST CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS E MA/RI...WHERE THEY MAY SEE
PERIODS OF MODERATE SNOW IN OCEAN EFFECT ESPECIALLY SE COASTAL MA
/PLYMOUTH COUNTY/...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS LATE MON AND MON
NIGHT. MAY SEE MIXED -RN-SN ALONG E COAST TUE AFTERNOON. NE WIND
GUSTS UP TO 35 KT MON INTO MON NIGHT ALONG IMMEDIATE E COASTAL
MA...DIMINISHING TO AROUND 25 KT TUE.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT -SHSN TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION AS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. MAY SEE MIX WITH -RA ALONG S COAST
WED AFTERNOON. COULD SEE PERIODS OF MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR
CIGS/VSBYS... MAINLY WED-WED NIGHT. CONDITIONS SHOULD SLOWLY
IMPROVE TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THU. N-NE WIND GUSTS
AROUND 25 KT EARLY WED WILL DIMINISH BY AROUND MIDDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT AND SUNDAY ... TRANQUIL WIND AND SEAS ALONG WITH DRY
WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY.

SUNDAY NIGHT ... NE WINDS LIKELY INCREASE TO GALE FORCE ACROSS THE
RI AND SOUTHERN MA WATERS. THUS GALE WARNINGS POSTED. LOW
PROBABILITY NORTH OF CAPE COD SO GALE WATCHES POSTED THERE. VSBY
LOWERING IN SNOW LATE. SEAS WILL BUILD RAPIDLY WITH POWERFUL LOW
PRES OFF THE NC COAST COMBINING WITH 1035 MB SURFACE HIGH OVER
QUEBEC.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...

MONDAY...GALE CENTER WILL PASS WELL SE OF NANTUCKET...BUT GALE
FORCE GUSTS WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND WELL NW OF THE CENTER. NE
WINDS GUSTING TO 35-45 KT...HIGHEST E AND S OF CAPE COD AND
NANTUCKET... WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE MORNING THEN WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND MON NIGHT. SEAS UP TO 14-18 FT
ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE MON AFTERNOON.
VSBY RESTRICTIONS FOR AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW MON-MON
NIGHT.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME. NE WINDS IN PLACE TUE AND TUE NIGHT...GUSTING UP
TO 25-30 KT...WITH SEAS UP TO 8-11 FT. EXPECT WINDS TO BACK TO
N-NW WITH GUSTS CONTINUING AT AROUND 25 KT. SEAS WILL BUILD AGAIN
ON TUESDAY...HIGHEST E AND S OF NANTUCKET...UP TO 9-14 KT AS
ANOTHER LOW PASSES SE OF NANTUCKET. VSBY RESTRICTIONS CONTINUE FOR
LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW.

THURSDAY...NW WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST UP TO 25-30 KT. LOW RISK OF
GUSTS UP TO 35 KT THU NIGHT E AND S OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET.
SEAS UP TO 7-11 FT ON THE SE OUTER WATERS. LOCAL VSBY RESTRICTIONS
IN SCT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS...BUT SHOULD IMPROVE THU
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRO TIDES LATE MON MORNING ARE HIGH WITH 11.2 FT AT BOSTON.
STRONG NE WINDS UP TO 40 KT WILL YIELD A STORM SURGE OF 1.5 FT TO
2.0 FT AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG WAVE
ACTION OF 12-18 FT JUST OFFSHORE WILL YIELD A RISK OF MODERATE
COASTAL FLOODING.

ETSS WAS A BIT HIGHER THAN ESTOFS AND SEEMS REASONABLE. WIND
FIELD DECREASES SUBSTANTIALLY NORTH OF PLYMOUTH COUNTY. THUS
THREAT OF COASTAL FLOODING IS LOWER FROM BOSTON NORTHWARD.
THEREFORE HAVE CONFINED THE COASTAL FLOOD WATCH SOUTH OF BOSTON
THRU PLYMOUTH TO CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET.

OTHER CONCERN IS BEACH EROSION GIVEN THE HIGH WATER LEVELS...STRONG
WAVE ACTION OVER MULTIPLE TIDE CYCLES. AGAIN APPEARS HIGHEST RISK
WILL BE SOUTH OF BOSTON. HOWEVER WILL HAVE TO MONITOR LATER MODEL
RUNS FOR POSSIBLE EXPANSION OF THE WATCH NORTHWARD.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MAZ019-022-024.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR MAZ018-019-021>024.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ231>235-237-254>256.
     GALE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ230-250-251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/EVT
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/EVT
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...NOCERA/EVT
MARINE...NOCERA/EVT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NOCERA



000
FXUS61 KBOX 070024
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
724 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. AN OCEAN STORM MAY BRING A PLOWABLE SNOWFALL
TO SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS
MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW ARE LIKELY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...AND POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO THURSDAY. AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT BRINGS BITTERLY COLD CONDITIONS THE END OF THE WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...

650 PM UPDATE...
BAND OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
AREAS AT 23Z AS SEEN ON LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY. ALSO NOTING
SOME MID CLOUDS ACROSS S VT/NW MA THAT HAVE DEVELOPED SINCE
SUNSET THAT MAY CROSS INTO N CENTRAL AND NE MA THROUGH 03Z BEFORE
DISSIPATING. ADJUSTED SKY COVER TO MATCH UP WITH CURRENT
CONDITIONS.

DEWPTS A BIT LOWER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST SO ADJUSTED TO BRING
CURRENT. DO AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTER THAT DEWPTS SHOULD
SLOWLY RISE AROUND OR AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH LIGHT SW WINDS IN PLACE.

REMAINDER OF FORECAST IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE. HAVE UPDATED TO BRING
CONDITIONS CURRENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT PROVIDES DRY WEATHER TONIGHT ALONG WITH HIGH
PRES AT THE SURFACE JUST SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL RESULT IN
SW PRES GRADIENT/SURFACE WINDS AND YIELDING TEMPS NOT AS COLD AS
LAST NIGHT AS DEWPTS CLIMB INTO THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

SUNDAY ...

NOT MUCH CHANGE WITH CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRES AT THE
SURFACE. THUS EXPECTING A DRY COLUMN SUPPORTING LOTS OF SUNSHINE
AND LIGHT WINDS...WHICH WILL MAKE TEMPS IN THE L40S FEEL EVEN
MILDER.

SUNDAY NIGHT ...

1035 QUEBEC SURFACE HIGH ADVECTS SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR SOUTHWARD
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MEANWHILE MID LEVEL SOUTHERN STREAM
TROUGH OVER THE GULF STATES THIS AFTERNOON INDUCES CYCLOGENESIS
OFF THE EAST COAST OF FL THIS EVENING AND THEN RAPIDLY
INTENSIFYING INTO A SUB 980 MB LOW/GALE CENTER WELL EAST OF THE
NC COAST SUN NIGHT. TYPICALLY THIS TRACK IS TOO FAR OFFSHORE TO
YIELD ACCUMULATING SNOW TO SOUTHEAST MA. HOWEVER THIS CYCLONE HAS
A VERY LARGE CIRCULATION/WCB/FIREHOSE IN ADDITION TO 1035 MB
SURFACE HIGH OVER QUEBEC. THUS SNOW COMES ONSHORE 06Z-12 MON AND
WILL LIKELY HAVE SOME OCEAN EFFECT SNOW /OES/ COMPONENT GIVEN NE
WINDS AND SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR BLEEDING IN FROM THE NORTH. BIG
DIFFERENCES WITH MODEL QPF WITH NAM/ARW/NMM MOST ROBUST. EC/GFS
AND RGEM MORE MODEST SO FOLLOWED A MODEL BLEND GIVEN UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DISCUSSION...
AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE FOR MUCH
IF NOT ALL OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THOUGH SIGNS CONTINUE TO SHOW
SOME DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH LATER THIS WEEK
ACROSS THE EAST. MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SIGNAL UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS THROUGH WED AND POSSIBLY INTO THU...THEN WILL START TO
SETTLE DOWN. HOWEVER...LOOKS LIKE WINTER TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH
IN WITH THE DRIER CONDITIONS LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

STILL PROBLEMS WITH SEPARATION BETWEEN SHORT WAVES IN THE OVERALL
CUTOFF LOW PRES/LONG WAVE TROUGH MON-WED...THOUGH DOES LOOK LIKE
SOME SETTLING IN WITH SOME OF THE DETAILS. HOWEVER...WITH UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE...WILL STILL SEE PERIODS OF PRECIP
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.

USED A BLEND OF MOST OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE ALONG WITH
ENSEMBLES WHICH GAVE REASONABLE CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

DETAILS...

MONDAY-TUESDAY...MODELS SETTLING IN WITH CONTINUE NE FLOW IN
PLACE. FIRST LOW PRES PASSES WELL SE OF NANTUCKET...BUT
COMBINATION OF THIS STRONG STORM /CENTRAL PRES FROM 970-978 HPA AS
IT PASSES MON AFTERNOON/ AND HIGH PRES RIDGING EXTENDING S OUT OF
QUEBEC ACROSS W NEW ENGLAND...VERY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT IN PLACE.
THIS WILL PRODUCE STRONG NE WINDS ACROSS E COASTAL
AREAS...GENERALLY S OF BOSTON. GUSTS MAY REACH UP TO 35-45 MPH
ALONG E COASTAL AREAS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...THEN WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH.

MODELS DO KEEP PUSHING NW FRINGE OF PRECIP INTO EASTERN AND
POSSIBLY CENTRAL AREAS...PLUS WILL LIKELY SEE COMBINATION OF OCEAN
EFFECT SNOW. NOTING AT LEAST CONDITIONAL CONDITIONS FOR LAKE
EFFECT ON BOTH GFS AND 4 KM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS LATE MON/MON NIGHT.

DID HAVE ISSUES WITH QPF FORECAST...THOUGH WITH STRONG ONSHORE
WINDS SHOULD SEE SOME ENHANCEMENT THERE. USED A BLEND OF WPC
GUIDANCE... 12Z GFS AND A TOUCH OF THE 15Z SREF...WITH HIGHEST
AMOUNTS ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z MONDAY WITH
INITIAL SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS LOW PASSES.

WITH THE COMBINATION OF INITIAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRONG
ONSHORE WINDS ENHANCING THE PRECIPITATION...EXPECT TO SEE BEST
CHANCE FOR SNOW ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS INTO PLYMOUTH
COUNTY. PARTIAL THICKNESSES SUPPORT MAINLY SNOW...THOUGH COULD SEE
SOME MIX WITH RAIN DURING TUESDAY WITH LIGHTER PRECIP. BASED ON
THIS...HAVE ISSUED WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THOSE AREAS MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF BUT NOT TOTALLY END DURING TUESDAY AS
UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL SITS CLOSE TO THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP
CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE AND KEEPING LIGHT SNOWFALL IN PLACE. WILL
LIKELY ALSO SEE A MIX WITH RAIN ALONG THE S COAST. BEST SHOT FOR
PRECIP WILL REMAIN ACROSS S COASTAL AREAS...THOUGH LOOKS TO BECOME
A BIT MORE SPOTTY TUE NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED FOR MOST OF THIS
PERIOD. WILL SEE CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. NOT A LOT
OF QPF TO DEAL WITH...MORE NUISANCE SNOW BUT COULD STILL SEE LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH MIDDAY WED. AS UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE
TROUGHING STARTS TO FLATTEN...NOTING AN ARCTIC FRONT IN THE NW
FLOW. EXPECT TO CROSS THE REGION LATE WED NIGHT OR EARLY
THU...WHICH WILL BE A DRY PASSAGE. EXPECT NW WINDS TO PICK UP ON
THU ALONG AS ARCTIC AIRMASS SHIFTS SE. HIGHS THU WILL ONLY BE IN
THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...EXPECT DRY TO VERY COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE.
ANOTHER REINFORCING ARCTIC FRONT CROSSES FRI NIGHT...WITH EVEN
COLDER AIR MOVING IN. CURRENT FORECAST SUGGESTS HIGHS ON SATURDAY
RUNNING AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS FOR MID FEBRUARY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. DRY CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT SW
WINDS. MAY SEE SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 KT ACROSS OUTER CAPE COD
AND NANTUCKET THROUGH 03Z.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
BECOMING NE TOWARD SUNSET.

SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR AND DRY THRU ABOUT MIDNIGHT. THEN LOWERING TO
MVFR WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SNOW OR MIX RAIN/SNOW TOWARD
DAYBREAK MON. NE WINDS GUSTING UP TO 35 KT CAPE COD AND ISLANDS
TOWARD 12Z MON.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE THRU SUN EVENING THEN LOWERING
LATE SUN NIGHT REGARDING ARRIVAL OF LOWER CIGS/VSBYS IN SNOW/RAIN.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MONDAY-TUESDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/IFR VSBYS IN -SN ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.
LOWEST CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS E MA/RI...WHERE THEY MAY SEE
PERIODS OF MODERATE SNOW IN OCEAN EFFECT ESPECIALLY SE COASTAL MA
/PLYMOUTH COUNTY/...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS LATE MON AND MON
NIGHT. MAY SEE MIXED -RN-SN ALONG E COAST TUE AFTERNOON. NE WIND
GUSTS UP TO 35 KT MON INTO MON NIGHT ALONG IMMEDIATE E COASTAL
MA...DIMINISHING TO AROUND 25 KT TUE.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT -SHSN TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION AS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. MAY SEE MIX WITH -RA ALONG S COAST
WED AFTERNOON. COULD SEE PERIODS OF MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR
CIGS/VSBYS... MAINLY WED-WED NIGHT. CONDITIONS SHOULD SLOWLY
IMPROVE TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THU. N-NE WIND GUSTS
AROUND 25 KT EARLY WED WILL DIMINISH BY AROUND MIDDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT AND SUNDAY ... TRANQUIL WIND AND SEAS ALONG WITH DRY
WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY.

SUNDAY NIGHT ... NE WINDS LIKELY INCREASE TO GALE FORCE ACROSS THE
RI AND SOUTHERN MA WATERS. THUS GALE WARNINGS POSTED. LOW
PROBABILITY NORTH OF CAPE COD SO GALE WATCHES POSTED THERE. VSBY
LOWERING IN SNOW LATE. SEAS WILL BUILD RAPIDLY WITH POWERFUL LOW
PRES OFF THE NC COAST COMBINING WITH 1035 MB SURFACE HIGH OVER
QUEBEC.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...

MONDAY...GALE CENTER WILL PASS WELL SE OF NANTUCKET...BUT GALE
FORCE GUSTS WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND WELL NW OF THE CENTER. NE
WINDS GUSTING TO 35-45 KT...HIGHEST E AND S OF CAPE COD AND
NANTUCKET... WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE MORNING THEN WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND MON NIGHT. SEAS UP TO 14-18 FT
ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE MON AFTERNOON.
VSBY RESTRICTIONS FOR AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW MON-MON
NIGHT.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME. NE WINDS IN PLACE TUE AND TUE NIGHT...GUSTING UP
TO 25-30 KT...WITH SEAS UP TO 8-11 FT. EXPECT WINDS TO BACK TO
N-NW WITH GUSTS CONTINUING AT AROUND 25 KT. SEAS WILL BUILD AGAIN
ON TUESDAY...HIGHEST E AND S OF NANTUCKET...UP TO 9-14 KT AS
ANOTHER LOW PASSES SE OF NANTUCKET. VSBY RESTRICTIONS CONTINUE FOR
LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW.

THURSDAY...NW WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST UP TO 25-30 KT. LOW RISK OF
GUSTS UP TO 35 KT THU NIGHT E AND S OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET.
SEAS UP TO 7-11 FT ON THE SE OUTER WATERS. LOCAL VSBY RESTRICTIONS
IN SCT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS...BUT SHOULD IMPROVE THU
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRO TIDES LATE MON MORNING ARE HIGH WITH 11.2 FT AT BOSTON.
STRONG NE WINDS UP TO 40 KT WILL YIELD A STORM SURGE OF 1.5 FT TO
2.0 FT AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG WAVE
ACTION OF 12-18 FT JUST OFFSHORE WILL YIELD A RISK OF MODERATE
COASTAL FLOODING.

ETSS WAS A BIT HIGHER THAN ESTOFS AND SEEMS REASONABLE. WIND
FIELD DECREASES SUBSTANTIALLY NORTH OF PLYMOUTH COUNTY. THUS
THREAT OF COASTAL FLOODING IS LOWER FROM BOSTON NORTHWARD.
THEREFORE HAVE CONFINED THE COASTAL FLOOD WATCH SOUTH OF BOSTON
THRU PLYMOUTH TO CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET.

OTHER CONCERN IS BEACH EROSION GIVEN THE HIGH WATER LEVELS...STRONG
WAVE ACTION OVER MULTIPLE TIDE CYCLES. AGAIN APPEARS HIGHEST RISK
WILL BE SOUTH OF BOSTON. HOWEVER WILL HAVE TO MONITOR LATER MODEL
RUNS FOR POSSIBLE EXPANSION OF THE WATCH NORTHWARD.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MAZ019-022-024.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR MAZ018-019-021>024.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ231>235-237-254>256.
     GALE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ230-250-251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/EVT
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/EVT
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...NOCERA/EVT
MARINE...NOCERA/EVT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NOCERA




000
FXUS61 KBOX 070024
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
724 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. AN OCEAN STORM MAY BRING A PLOWABLE SNOWFALL
TO SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS
MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW ARE LIKELY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...AND POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO THURSDAY. AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT BRINGS BITTERLY COLD CONDITIONS THE END OF THE WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...

650 PM UPDATE...
BAND OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
AREAS AT 23Z AS SEEN ON LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY. ALSO NOTING
SOME MID CLOUDS ACROSS S VT/NW MA THAT HAVE DEVELOPED SINCE
SUNSET THAT MAY CROSS INTO N CENTRAL AND NE MA THROUGH 03Z BEFORE
DISSIPATING. ADJUSTED SKY COVER TO MATCH UP WITH CURRENT
CONDITIONS.

DEWPTS A BIT LOWER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST SO ADJUSTED TO BRING
CURRENT. DO AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTER THAT DEWPTS SHOULD
SLOWLY RISE AROUND OR AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH LIGHT SW WINDS IN PLACE.

REMAINDER OF FORECAST IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE. HAVE UPDATED TO BRING
CONDITIONS CURRENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT PROVIDES DRY WEATHER TONIGHT ALONG WITH HIGH
PRES AT THE SURFACE JUST SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL RESULT IN
SW PRES GRADIENT/SURFACE WINDS AND YIELDING TEMPS NOT AS COLD AS
LAST NIGHT AS DEWPTS CLIMB INTO THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

SUNDAY ...

NOT MUCH CHANGE WITH CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRES AT THE
SURFACE. THUS EXPECTING A DRY COLUMN SUPPORTING LOTS OF SUNSHINE
AND LIGHT WINDS...WHICH WILL MAKE TEMPS IN THE L40S FEEL EVEN
MILDER.

SUNDAY NIGHT ...

1035 QUEBEC SURFACE HIGH ADVECTS SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR SOUTHWARD
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MEANWHILE MID LEVEL SOUTHERN STREAM
TROUGH OVER THE GULF STATES THIS AFTERNOON INDUCES CYCLOGENESIS
OFF THE EAST COAST OF FL THIS EVENING AND THEN RAPIDLY
INTENSIFYING INTO A SUB 980 MB LOW/GALE CENTER WELL EAST OF THE
NC COAST SUN NIGHT. TYPICALLY THIS TRACK IS TOO FAR OFFSHORE TO
YIELD ACCUMULATING SNOW TO SOUTHEAST MA. HOWEVER THIS CYCLONE HAS
A VERY LARGE CIRCULATION/WCB/FIREHOSE IN ADDITION TO 1035 MB
SURFACE HIGH OVER QUEBEC. THUS SNOW COMES ONSHORE 06Z-12 MON AND
WILL LIKELY HAVE SOME OCEAN EFFECT SNOW /OES/ COMPONENT GIVEN NE
WINDS AND SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR BLEEDING IN FROM THE NORTH. BIG
DIFFERENCES WITH MODEL QPF WITH NAM/ARW/NMM MOST ROBUST. EC/GFS
AND RGEM MORE MODEST SO FOLLOWED A MODEL BLEND GIVEN UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DISCUSSION...
AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE FOR MUCH
IF NOT ALL OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THOUGH SIGNS CONTINUE TO SHOW
SOME DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH LATER THIS WEEK
ACROSS THE EAST. MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SIGNAL UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS THROUGH WED AND POSSIBLY INTO THU...THEN WILL START TO
SETTLE DOWN. HOWEVER...LOOKS LIKE WINTER TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH
IN WITH THE DRIER CONDITIONS LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

STILL PROBLEMS WITH SEPARATION BETWEEN SHORT WAVES IN THE OVERALL
CUTOFF LOW PRES/LONG WAVE TROUGH MON-WED...THOUGH DOES LOOK LIKE
SOME SETTLING IN WITH SOME OF THE DETAILS. HOWEVER...WITH UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE...WILL STILL SEE PERIODS OF PRECIP
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.

USED A BLEND OF MOST OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE ALONG WITH
ENSEMBLES WHICH GAVE REASONABLE CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

DETAILS...

MONDAY-TUESDAY...MODELS SETTLING IN WITH CONTINUE NE FLOW IN
PLACE. FIRST LOW PRES PASSES WELL SE OF NANTUCKET...BUT
COMBINATION OF THIS STRONG STORM /CENTRAL PRES FROM 970-978 HPA AS
IT PASSES MON AFTERNOON/ AND HIGH PRES RIDGING EXTENDING S OUT OF
QUEBEC ACROSS W NEW ENGLAND...VERY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT IN PLACE.
THIS WILL PRODUCE STRONG NE WINDS ACROSS E COASTAL
AREAS...GENERALLY S OF BOSTON. GUSTS MAY REACH UP TO 35-45 MPH
ALONG E COASTAL AREAS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...THEN WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH.

MODELS DO KEEP PUSHING NW FRINGE OF PRECIP INTO EASTERN AND
POSSIBLY CENTRAL AREAS...PLUS WILL LIKELY SEE COMBINATION OF OCEAN
EFFECT SNOW. NOTING AT LEAST CONDITIONAL CONDITIONS FOR LAKE
EFFECT ON BOTH GFS AND 4 KM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS LATE MON/MON NIGHT.

DID HAVE ISSUES WITH QPF FORECAST...THOUGH WITH STRONG ONSHORE
WINDS SHOULD SEE SOME ENHANCEMENT THERE. USED A BLEND OF WPC
GUIDANCE... 12Z GFS AND A TOUCH OF THE 15Z SREF...WITH HIGHEST
AMOUNTS ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z MONDAY WITH
INITIAL SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS LOW PASSES.

WITH THE COMBINATION OF INITIAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRONG
ONSHORE WINDS ENHANCING THE PRECIPITATION...EXPECT TO SEE BEST
CHANCE FOR SNOW ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS INTO PLYMOUTH
COUNTY. PARTIAL THICKNESSES SUPPORT MAINLY SNOW...THOUGH COULD SEE
SOME MIX WITH RAIN DURING TUESDAY WITH LIGHTER PRECIP. BASED ON
THIS...HAVE ISSUED WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THOSE AREAS MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF BUT NOT TOTALLY END DURING TUESDAY AS
UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL SITS CLOSE TO THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP
CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE AND KEEPING LIGHT SNOWFALL IN PLACE. WILL
LIKELY ALSO SEE A MIX WITH RAIN ALONG THE S COAST. BEST SHOT FOR
PRECIP WILL REMAIN ACROSS S COASTAL AREAS...THOUGH LOOKS TO BECOME
A BIT MORE SPOTTY TUE NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED FOR MOST OF THIS
PERIOD. WILL SEE CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. NOT A LOT
OF QPF TO DEAL WITH...MORE NUISANCE SNOW BUT COULD STILL SEE LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH MIDDAY WED. AS UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE
TROUGHING STARTS TO FLATTEN...NOTING AN ARCTIC FRONT IN THE NW
FLOW. EXPECT TO CROSS THE REGION LATE WED NIGHT OR EARLY
THU...WHICH WILL BE A DRY PASSAGE. EXPECT NW WINDS TO PICK UP ON
THU ALONG AS ARCTIC AIRMASS SHIFTS SE. HIGHS THU WILL ONLY BE IN
THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...EXPECT DRY TO VERY COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE.
ANOTHER REINFORCING ARCTIC FRONT CROSSES FRI NIGHT...WITH EVEN
COLDER AIR MOVING IN. CURRENT FORECAST SUGGESTS HIGHS ON SATURDAY
RUNNING AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS FOR MID FEBRUARY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. DRY CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT SW
WINDS. MAY SEE SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 KT ACROSS OUTER CAPE COD
AND NANTUCKET THROUGH 03Z.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
BECOMING NE TOWARD SUNSET.

SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR AND DRY THRU ABOUT MIDNIGHT. THEN LOWERING TO
MVFR WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SNOW OR MIX RAIN/SNOW TOWARD
DAYBREAK MON. NE WINDS GUSTING UP TO 35 KT CAPE COD AND ISLANDS
TOWARD 12Z MON.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE THRU SUN EVENING THEN LOWERING
LATE SUN NIGHT REGARDING ARRIVAL OF LOWER CIGS/VSBYS IN SNOW/RAIN.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MONDAY-TUESDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/IFR VSBYS IN -SN ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.
LOWEST CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS E MA/RI...WHERE THEY MAY SEE
PERIODS OF MODERATE SNOW IN OCEAN EFFECT ESPECIALLY SE COASTAL MA
/PLYMOUTH COUNTY/...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS LATE MON AND MON
NIGHT. MAY SEE MIXED -RN-SN ALONG E COAST TUE AFTERNOON. NE WIND
GUSTS UP TO 35 KT MON INTO MON NIGHT ALONG IMMEDIATE E COASTAL
MA...DIMINISHING TO AROUND 25 KT TUE.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT -SHSN TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION AS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. MAY SEE MIX WITH -RA ALONG S COAST
WED AFTERNOON. COULD SEE PERIODS OF MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR
CIGS/VSBYS... MAINLY WED-WED NIGHT. CONDITIONS SHOULD SLOWLY
IMPROVE TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THU. N-NE WIND GUSTS
AROUND 25 KT EARLY WED WILL DIMINISH BY AROUND MIDDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT AND SUNDAY ... TRANQUIL WIND AND SEAS ALONG WITH DRY
WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY.

SUNDAY NIGHT ... NE WINDS LIKELY INCREASE TO GALE FORCE ACROSS THE
RI AND SOUTHERN MA WATERS. THUS GALE WARNINGS POSTED. LOW
PROBABILITY NORTH OF CAPE COD SO GALE WATCHES POSTED THERE. VSBY
LOWERING IN SNOW LATE. SEAS WILL BUILD RAPIDLY WITH POWERFUL LOW
PRES OFF THE NC COAST COMBINING WITH 1035 MB SURFACE HIGH OVER
QUEBEC.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...

MONDAY...GALE CENTER WILL PASS WELL SE OF NANTUCKET...BUT GALE
FORCE GUSTS WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND WELL NW OF THE CENTER. NE
WINDS GUSTING TO 35-45 KT...HIGHEST E AND S OF CAPE COD AND
NANTUCKET... WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE MORNING THEN WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND MON NIGHT. SEAS UP TO 14-18 FT
ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE MON AFTERNOON.
VSBY RESTRICTIONS FOR AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW MON-MON
NIGHT.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME. NE WINDS IN PLACE TUE AND TUE NIGHT...GUSTING UP
TO 25-30 KT...WITH SEAS UP TO 8-11 FT. EXPECT WINDS TO BACK TO
N-NW WITH GUSTS CONTINUING AT AROUND 25 KT. SEAS WILL BUILD AGAIN
ON TUESDAY...HIGHEST E AND S OF NANTUCKET...UP TO 9-14 KT AS
ANOTHER LOW PASSES SE OF NANTUCKET. VSBY RESTRICTIONS CONTINUE FOR
LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW.

THURSDAY...NW WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST UP TO 25-30 KT. LOW RISK OF
GUSTS UP TO 35 KT THU NIGHT E AND S OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET.
SEAS UP TO 7-11 FT ON THE SE OUTER WATERS. LOCAL VSBY RESTRICTIONS
IN SCT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS...BUT SHOULD IMPROVE THU
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRO TIDES LATE MON MORNING ARE HIGH WITH 11.2 FT AT BOSTON.
STRONG NE WINDS UP TO 40 KT WILL YIELD A STORM SURGE OF 1.5 FT TO
2.0 FT AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG WAVE
ACTION OF 12-18 FT JUST OFFSHORE WILL YIELD A RISK OF MODERATE
COASTAL FLOODING.

ETSS WAS A BIT HIGHER THAN ESTOFS AND SEEMS REASONABLE. WIND
FIELD DECREASES SUBSTANTIALLY NORTH OF PLYMOUTH COUNTY. THUS
THREAT OF COASTAL FLOODING IS LOWER FROM BOSTON NORTHWARD.
THEREFORE HAVE CONFINED THE COASTAL FLOOD WATCH SOUTH OF BOSTON
THRU PLYMOUTH TO CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET.

OTHER CONCERN IS BEACH EROSION GIVEN THE HIGH WATER LEVELS...STRONG
WAVE ACTION OVER MULTIPLE TIDE CYCLES. AGAIN APPEARS HIGHEST RISK
WILL BE SOUTH OF BOSTON. HOWEVER WILL HAVE TO MONITOR LATER MODEL
RUNS FOR POSSIBLE EXPANSION OF THE WATCH NORTHWARD.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MAZ019-022-024.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR MAZ018-019-021>024.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ231>235-237-254>256.
     GALE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ230-250-251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/EVT
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/EVT
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...NOCERA/EVT
MARINE...NOCERA/EVT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NOCERA




000
FXUS61 KALY 070005
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
705 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER INTO SUNDAY. MEANWHILE A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK. SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MIDWEEK A LARGE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SETTLE INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL SET UP THE REGION FOR A PERIOD OF
TYPICAL FEBRUARY WEATHER...CLOUDY...COLD WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT
SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR SEVERAL DAYS. TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS AT
THIS TIME SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 700 PM EST...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DRIFT OFF THE NJ
COAST THIS EVENING...AS A WEAK WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS SE QUEBEC.
A COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH FROM SOUTHERN CANADA INTO
NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL MAINLY RESULT IN AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS OVERNIGHT ACROSS FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FA WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE FA WILL REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY OR
MOSTLY CLEAR FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST. LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL BE IN
THE LOW TO MID 20S. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT.

ON SUNDAY THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND KEEPING THE COLDEST AIR LOCKED UP NORTH OF
THE BOUNDARY. THERE WILL BE INTERVALS OF CLOUDS AND SUN ON SUNDAY
ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S EXCEPT FOR SOME UPPER 20S ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A SERIES OF 500 HPA SHORT WVS CARVE A TROF AND THEN A CUTOFF OVER
THE GRTLKS RGN THROUGH THIS PERIOD. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM GENERALLY
FAIR CONDS WILL PREVAIL SUN NT. MON THE ONE STRONG S STREAM SHORT
WV EJECTS SOUTH OF THE RGN AS A CSTL STORM...BUT IT MAY INJECT
SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE E PRTNS OF FCA AS THE CUT OFF
APPROACHES.

OTHERWISE THE 500 HPA CUT OFF SUPPORTS A WEAKENING CLIPPER LOW
OVER THE GRT LKS RGN MON INTO MIDWEEK. THIS LEAVES THE RGN UNDER
A SPRAWLING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THROUGH OUT THE ATMOSPHERE. YET
ANOTHER COASTAL LOW IS SPAWNED BY THIS 500 HPA LOW...BUT ALL
DETERMINISTIC GUID KEEPS IT WEAK AND TO THE SOUTH OF FCA TUE.

SO WHILE THERE IS UNANIMOUS AGREEMENT AMONG THE ECMWF/GFS/NAM/GEM
DETERMINISTIC RUNS IN KEEPING THE SIGNIFICANT ACTION TO OUR
EAST...ITS JUST TO OUR EAST AS SVRL NOR EASTER TYPE STORMS PASS
JUST BEYOND THE RGN. ATTM THE GUID IS FCST MOSTLY FISH STORMS.

THEN THERE THE SREFS WITH QPF FM 0.10 TO A 1.3 LIQ EQUIV OUTLIER...GEFS
A TRACE TO 0.5 INCH LIQ EQ.

SO THE CONSENSUS SUPPORTS FCA IN TYPICAL FEB REGIME. COLD...AS
ALL PCPN WILL BE -SN OR -SNSH...CLOUDY BUT QPF CONSTRAINED BY
LIMITED TO AT MOST MODEST MOISTURE. SNSH/-SN WILL BE FOCUSED BY PASSING
SHORT WVS...A NW-SE ORIENTED TROF THAT SHIFTS NE ACROSS THE
RGN...AS WELL AS THESE SYSTEMS ABILITY TO TRIGGER A LK EFFECT
RESPONSE...AND SOME MOISTURE INJECTIONS FM COASTAL STORMS PASSING
JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THE NET QPF IN THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS OVER THE
WHOLE PERIOD ARE ON THE ORDER OF A QUARTER OF AN INCH QPF...PLUS
OR MINUS A TENTH WITH A BIT MORE OVER MTN RIDGES.

WHILE THE MODEL SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT ON THE GENERAL SCENARIO...ALL
KEEPING THE SIGNIFICANT STORMS AT BAY TO OUR SOUTH...THEY DO VARY
ON THE TIMING OF FORCING MECHANISMS. FCA REMAINS UNCOMFORTABLY
CLOSE TO SHARP GRADIENTS OF PCPN AS EVIDENCED BY THE PLUMES AND
PERCENTAGES IN THE ENSEMBLE WPC OUTPUT.

FOR NOW THE BLEND IS THE BEST APPROACH TO ADDRESSING THIS DEGREE
OF UNCERTAINTY. TEMPS WILL REMAIN COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...WITH NR
NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS STILL TRENDING ABV NORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THIS LONG TERM PERIOD BRINGS THE LONGEST SUSTAINED COLD PERIOD
WE`VE SEEN THIS WINTER. THE 1ST CUTOFF AT 500 HPA LINGERS ONE
MORE DAY DEPARTING TO OUR EAST THURSDAY...AND CYCLOGENESIS ENSUES
IN THE GULF OF MAINE. HWVR THE SHRT WV PARADE CARVES OUT AND
REINFORCES THE FULL LATITUDE TROF IN THE EAST. IN ITS WAKE ARCTIC
AIR POURS SOUTH INTO THE RGN. THE COLDEST AIR IS USHERED INTO THE
RGN AS AN E-W CDFNT DROPS S INTO THE RGN AND COULD FOCUS SQUALLS
OR LES LATE WED.

OTRW THE RGN REMAINS UNDER A 500HPA CUT OFF. THE THREAT OF -SHSN CONTINUES
THROUGH THE EFP. TO THE FAR N...NW FLOW AND THE 500 HPA CUT OFF WILL
ENHANCE THE ACTIVITY OVER THE ADRNDKS. HWVR COVERAGE OF -SNSH WILL
DIMINISH TO MOSTLY N & W OF ALB. THE LES RESPONSE WILL ALSO DIMINISH
IN WAKE OF LAST CDFNT AS LLVL FLOW IS N-NW. SN ACCUMS WILL BE
LIGHT TO MODEST...BUT ONGOING FROM TIME TO TIME PARTICULARLY N & W
OF ALB. THE MOST NOTICABLE THING ABOUT THE EFP WILL TEMPS WILL
TURN BLO NORMALS THU...AND KEEP TRENDING DOWN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST TONIGHT...AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN TOMORROW.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH DECREASING
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. SOME CIRRUS WILL BE AROUND LATE TOMORROW MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT AGAIN VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL
00Z/MON FOR KGFL/KPSF/KALB/KPOU.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST PRIOR TO
06Z/SUN...AND THEN WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT. EXPECT LIGHT
AND VARIABLE DIRECTION WINDS OF 6 KTS OR LESS LATE TOMORROW
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO CONCERNS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS AS
ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

THE THIRD WINTER SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE SEASON WAS ISSUED
ON FEBRUARY 4TH.

HIGHLIGHTS...REFER TO THE PRODUCTS FOR DETAILS (ALBESFALY):

DUE TO BELOW NORMAL SNOW COVER AND RIVER ICE...POTENTIAL FOR
SNOWMELT AND ICE JAM FLOODING IS LOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

HOWEVER BY LATE IN THE WEEK TEMPS WILL TREND BELOW NORMALS...AND
ICE FORMATION WILL INCREASE ON AREA RIVERS AND LAKES.

ALTHOUGH WATER SUPPLY LEVELS ARE NOT A CONCERN AT THE MOMENT...THERE
IS CURRENTLY VERY LITTLE SNOW WATER AVAILABLE FOR RESERVOIR RECHARGE
ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. IT WILL TAKE A STEADY SUPPLY OF RAIN AND
SNOW THROUGH SPRING INTO SUMMER FOR RESERVOIRS TO MAINTAIN ADEQUATE
LEVELS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER/WASULA
NEAR TERM...11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER



000
FXUS61 KALY 070005
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
705 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER INTO SUNDAY. MEANWHILE A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK. SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MIDWEEK A LARGE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SETTLE INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL SET UP THE REGION FOR A PERIOD OF
TYPICAL FEBRUARY WEATHER...CLOUDY...COLD WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT
SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR SEVERAL DAYS. TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS AT
THIS TIME SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 700 PM EST...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DRIFT OFF THE NJ
COAST THIS EVENING...AS A WEAK WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS SE QUEBEC.
A COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH FROM SOUTHERN CANADA INTO
NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL MAINLY RESULT IN AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS OVERNIGHT ACROSS FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FA WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE FA WILL REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY OR
MOSTLY CLEAR FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST. LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL BE IN
THE LOW TO MID 20S. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT.

ON SUNDAY THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND KEEPING THE COLDEST AIR LOCKED UP NORTH OF
THE BOUNDARY. THERE WILL BE INTERVALS OF CLOUDS AND SUN ON SUNDAY
ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S EXCEPT FOR SOME UPPER 20S ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A SERIES OF 500 HPA SHORT WVS CARVE A TROF AND THEN A CUTOFF OVER
THE GRTLKS RGN THROUGH THIS PERIOD. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM GENERALLY
FAIR CONDS WILL PREVAIL SUN NT. MON THE ONE STRONG S STREAM SHORT
WV EJECTS SOUTH OF THE RGN AS A CSTL STORM...BUT IT MAY INJECT
SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE E PRTNS OF FCA AS THE CUT OFF
APPROACHES.

OTHERWISE THE 500 HPA CUT OFF SUPPORTS A WEAKENING CLIPPER LOW
OVER THE GRT LKS RGN MON INTO MIDWEEK. THIS LEAVES THE RGN UNDER
A SPRAWLING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THROUGH OUT THE ATMOSPHERE. YET
ANOTHER COASTAL LOW IS SPAWNED BY THIS 500 HPA LOW...BUT ALL
DETERMINISTIC GUID KEEPS IT WEAK AND TO THE SOUTH OF FCA TUE.

SO WHILE THERE IS UNANIMOUS AGREEMENT AMONG THE ECMWF/GFS/NAM/GEM
DETERMINISTIC RUNS IN KEEPING THE SIGNIFICANT ACTION TO OUR
EAST...ITS JUST TO OUR EAST AS SVRL NOR EASTER TYPE STORMS PASS
JUST BEYOND THE RGN. ATTM THE GUID IS FCST MOSTLY FISH STORMS.

THEN THERE THE SREFS WITH QPF FM 0.10 TO A 1.3 LIQ EQUIV OUTLIER...GEFS
A TRACE TO 0.5 INCH LIQ EQ.

SO THE CONSENSUS SUPPORTS FCA IN TYPICAL FEB REGIME. COLD...AS
ALL PCPN WILL BE -SN OR -SNSH...CLOUDY BUT QPF CONSTRAINED BY
LIMITED TO AT MOST MODEST MOISTURE. SNSH/-SN WILL BE FOCUSED BY PASSING
SHORT WVS...A NW-SE ORIENTED TROF THAT SHIFTS NE ACROSS THE
RGN...AS WELL AS THESE SYSTEMS ABILITY TO TRIGGER A LK EFFECT
RESPONSE...AND SOME MOISTURE INJECTIONS FM COASTAL STORMS PASSING
JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THE NET QPF IN THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS OVER THE
WHOLE PERIOD ARE ON THE ORDER OF A QUARTER OF AN INCH QPF...PLUS
OR MINUS A TENTH WITH A BIT MORE OVER MTN RIDGES.

WHILE THE MODEL SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT ON THE GENERAL SCENARIO...ALL
KEEPING THE SIGNIFICANT STORMS AT BAY TO OUR SOUTH...THEY DO VARY
ON THE TIMING OF FORCING MECHANISMS. FCA REMAINS UNCOMFORTABLY
CLOSE TO SHARP GRADIENTS OF PCPN AS EVIDENCED BY THE PLUMES AND
PERCENTAGES IN THE ENSEMBLE WPC OUTPUT.

FOR NOW THE BLEND IS THE BEST APPROACH TO ADDRESSING THIS DEGREE
OF UNCERTAINTY. TEMPS WILL REMAIN COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...WITH NR
NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS STILL TRENDING ABV NORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THIS LONG TERM PERIOD BRINGS THE LONGEST SUSTAINED COLD PERIOD
WE`VE SEEN THIS WINTER. THE 1ST CUTOFF AT 500 HPA LINGERS ONE
MORE DAY DEPARTING TO OUR EAST THURSDAY...AND CYCLOGENESIS ENSUES
IN THE GULF OF MAINE. HWVR THE SHRT WV PARADE CARVES OUT AND
REINFORCES THE FULL LATITUDE TROF IN THE EAST. IN ITS WAKE ARCTIC
AIR POURS SOUTH INTO THE RGN. THE COLDEST AIR IS USHERED INTO THE
RGN AS AN E-W CDFNT DROPS S INTO THE RGN AND COULD FOCUS SQUALLS
OR LES LATE WED.

OTRW THE RGN REMAINS UNDER A 500HPA CUT OFF. THE THREAT OF -SHSN CONTINUES
THROUGH THE EFP. TO THE FAR N...NW FLOW AND THE 500 HPA CUT OFF WILL
ENHANCE THE ACTIVITY OVER THE ADRNDKS. HWVR COVERAGE OF -SNSH WILL
DIMINISH TO MOSTLY N & W OF ALB. THE LES RESPONSE WILL ALSO DIMINISH
IN WAKE OF LAST CDFNT AS LLVL FLOW IS N-NW. SN ACCUMS WILL BE
LIGHT TO MODEST...BUT ONGOING FROM TIME TO TIME PARTICULARLY N & W
OF ALB. THE MOST NOTICABLE THING ABOUT THE EFP WILL TEMPS WILL
TURN BLO NORMALS THU...AND KEEP TRENDING DOWN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST TONIGHT...AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN TOMORROW.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH DECREASING
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. SOME CIRRUS WILL BE AROUND LATE TOMORROW MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT AGAIN VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL
00Z/MON FOR KGFL/KPSF/KALB/KPOU.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST PRIOR TO
06Z/SUN...AND THEN WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT. EXPECT LIGHT
AND VARIABLE DIRECTION WINDS OF 6 KTS OR LESS LATE TOMORROW
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO CONCERNS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS AS
ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

THE THIRD WINTER SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE SEASON WAS ISSUED
ON FEBRUARY 4TH.

HIGHLIGHTS...REFER TO THE PRODUCTS FOR DETAILS (ALBESFALY):

DUE TO BELOW NORMAL SNOW COVER AND RIVER ICE...POTENTIAL FOR
SNOWMELT AND ICE JAM FLOODING IS LOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

HOWEVER BY LATE IN THE WEEK TEMPS WILL TREND BELOW NORMALS...AND
ICE FORMATION WILL INCREASE ON AREA RIVERS AND LAKES.

ALTHOUGH WATER SUPPLY LEVELS ARE NOT A CONCERN AT THE MOMENT...THERE
IS CURRENTLY VERY LITTLE SNOW WATER AVAILABLE FOR RESERVOIR RECHARGE
ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. IT WILL TAKE A STEADY SUPPLY OF RAIN AND
SNOW THROUGH SPRING INTO SUMMER FOR RESERVOIRS TO MAINTAIN ADEQUATE
LEVELS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER/WASULA
NEAR TERM...11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER




000
FXUS61 KALY 070005
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
705 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER INTO SUNDAY. MEANWHILE A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK. SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MIDWEEK A LARGE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SETTLE INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL SET UP THE REGION FOR A PERIOD OF
TYPICAL FEBRUARY WEATHER...CLOUDY...COLD WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT
SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR SEVERAL DAYS. TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS AT
THIS TIME SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 700 PM EST...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DRIFT OFF THE NJ
COAST THIS EVENING...AS A WEAK WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS SE QUEBEC.
A COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH FROM SOUTHERN CANADA INTO
NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL MAINLY RESULT IN AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS OVERNIGHT ACROSS FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FA WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE FA WILL REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY OR
MOSTLY CLEAR FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST. LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL BE IN
THE LOW TO MID 20S. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT.

ON SUNDAY THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND KEEPING THE COLDEST AIR LOCKED UP NORTH OF
THE BOUNDARY. THERE WILL BE INTERVALS OF CLOUDS AND SUN ON SUNDAY
ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S EXCEPT FOR SOME UPPER 20S ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A SERIES OF 500 HPA SHORT WVS CARVE A TROF AND THEN A CUTOFF OVER
THE GRTLKS RGN THROUGH THIS PERIOD. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM GENERALLY
FAIR CONDS WILL PREVAIL SUN NT. MON THE ONE STRONG S STREAM SHORT
WV EJECTS SOUTH OF THE RGN AS A CSTL STORM...BUT IT MAY INJECT
SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE E PRTNS OF FCA AS THE CUT OFF
APPROACHES.

OTHERWISE THE 500 HPA CUT OFF SUPPORTS A WEAKENING CLIPPER LOW
OVER THE GRT LKS RGN MON INTO MIDWEEK. THIS LEAVES THE RGN UNDER
A SPRAWLING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THROUGH OUT THE ATMOSPHERE. YET
ANOTHER COASTAL LOW IS SPAWNED BY THIS 500 HPA LOW...BUT ALL
DETERMINISTIC GUID KEEPS IT WEAK AND TO THE SOUTH OF FCA TUE.

SO WHILE THERE IS UNANIMOUS AGREEMENT AMONG THE ECMWF/GFS/NAM/GEM
DETERMINISTIC RUNS IN KEEPING THE SIGNIFICANT ACTION TO OUR
EAST...ITS JUST TO OUR EAST AS SVRL NOR EASTER TYPE STORMS PASS
JUST BEYOND THE RGN. ATTM THE GUID IS FCST MOSTLY FISH STORMS.

THEN THERE THE SREFS WITH QPF FM 0.10 TO A 1.3 LIQ EQUIV OUTLIER...GEFS
A TRACE TO 0.5 INCH LIQ EQ.

SO THE CONSENSUS SUPPORTS FCA IN TYPICAL FEB REGIME. COLD...AS
ALL PCPN WILL BE -SN OR -SNSH...CLOUDY BUT QPF CONSTRAINED BY
LIMITED TO AT MOST MODEST MOISTURE. SNSH/-SN WILL BE FOCUSED BY PASSING
SHORT WVS...A NW-SE ORIENTED TROF THAT SHIFTS NE ACROSS THE
RGN...AS WELL AS THESE SYSTEMS ABILITY TO TRIGGER A LK EFFECT
RESPONSE...AND SOME MOISTURE INJECTIONS FM COASTAL STORMS PASSING
JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THE NET QPF IN THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS OVER THE
WHOLE PERIOD ARE ON THE ORDER OF A QUARTER OF AN INCH QPF...PLUS
OR MINUS A TENTH WITH A BIT MORE OVER MTN RIDGES.

WHILE THE MODEL SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT ON THE GENERAL SCENARIO...ALL
KEEPING THE SIGNIFICANT STORMS AT BAY TO OUR SOUTH...THEY DO VARY
ON THE TIMING OF FORCING MECHANISMS. FCA REMAINS UNCOMFORTABLY
CLOSE TO SHARP GRADIENTS OF PCPN AS EVIDENCED BY THE PLUMES AND
PERCENTAGES IN THE ENSEMBLE WPC OUTPUT.

FOR NOW THE BLEND IS THE BEST APPROACH TO ADDRESSING THIS DEGREE
OF UNCERTAINTY. TEMPS WILL REMAIN COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...WITH NR
NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS STILL TRENDING ABV NORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THIS LONG TERM PERIOD BRINGS THE LONGEST SUSTAINED COLD PERIOD
WE`VE SEEN THIS WINTER. THE 1ST CUTOFF AT 500 HPA LINGERS ONE
MORE DAY DEPARTING TO OUR EAST THURSDAY...AND CYCLOGENESIS ENSUES
IN THE GULF OF MAINE. HWVR THE SHRT WV PARADE CARVES OUT AND
REINFORCES THE FULL LATITUDE TROF IN THE EAST. IN ITS WAKE ARCTIC
AIR POURS SOUTH INTO THE RGN. THE COLDEST AIR IS USHERED INTO THE
RGN AS AN E-W CDFNT DROPS S INTO THE RGN AND COULD FOCUS SQUALLS
OR LES LATE WED.

OTRW THE RGN REMAINS UNDER A 500HPA CUT OFF. THE THREAT OF -SHSN CONTINUES
THROUGH THE EFP. TO THE FAR N...NW FLOW AND THE 500 HPA CUT OFF WILL
ENHANCE THE ACTIVITY OVER THE ADRNDKS. HWVR COVERAGE OF -SNSH WILL
DIMINISH TO MOSTLY N & W OF ALB. THE LES RESPONSE WILL ALSO DIMINISH
IN WAKE OF LAST CDFNT AS LLVL FLOW IS N-NW. SN ACCUMS WILL BE
LIGHT TO MODEST...BUT ONGOING FROM TIME TO TIME PARTICULARLY N & W
OF ALB. THE MOST NOTICABLE THING ABOUT THE EFP WILL TEMPS WILL
TURN BLO NORMALS THU...AND KEEP TRENDING DOWN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST TONIGHT...AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN TOMORROW.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH DECREASING
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. SOME CIRRUS WILL BE AROUND LATE TOMORROW MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT AGAIN VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL
00Z/MON FOR KGFL/KPSF/KALB/KPOU.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST PRIOR TO
06Z/SUN...AND THEN WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT. EXPECT LIGHT
AND VARIABLE DIRECTION WINDS OF 6 KTS OR LESS LATE TOMORROW
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO CONCERNS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS AS
ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

THE THIRD WINTER SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE SEASON WAS ISSUED
ON FEBRUARY 4TH.

HIGHLIGHTS...REFER TO THE PRODUCTS FOR DETAILS (ALBESFALY):

DUE TO BELOW NORMAL SNOW COVER AND RIVER ICE...POTENTIAL FOR
SNOWMELT AND ICE JAM FLOODING IS LOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

HOWEVER BY LATE IN THE WEEK TEMPS WILL TREND BELOW NORMALS...AND
ICE FORMATION WILL INCREASE ON AREA RIVERS AND LAKES.

ALTHOUGH WATER SUPPLY LEVELS ARE NOT A CONCERN AT THE MOMENT...THERE
IS CURRENTLY VERY LITTLE SNOW WATER AVAILABLE FOR RESERVOIR RECHARGE
ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. IT WILL TAKE A STEADY SUPPLY OF RAIN AND
SNOW THROUGH SPRING INTO SUMMER FOR RESERVOIRS TO MAINTAIN ADEQUATE
LEVELS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER/WASULA
NEAR TERM...11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER




000
FXUS61 KOKX 062357
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
657 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY.
INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST US COAST WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST...MOVING SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. AN ACTIVE WINTER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK AS SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE REGION.
HIGH PRESSURE MAY RETURN AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT. JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS
STREAMING ACROSS AND LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW THEY ARE MOVING
EAST AND THINNING SOMEWHAT. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT.

WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND WITH MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS...LOWS
SHOULD DROP WELL INTO THE TEENS INLAND AND LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S
FOR MOST OTHER LOCATIONS. SOME LOW 30S POSSIBLE IN THE NYC METRO.

FOR SUNDAY...A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY CONDITION WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS
AND WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION ON SW WINDS WILL HELP TEMPS RISE
CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SPLIT FLOW WITH MODEL IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW
OFF THE SE US COAST SUN EVENING PIVOTING NE SUN NIGHT TO SE OF THE
40/70 BENCHMARK MONDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE A SECOND LARGER CLOSED LOW
DEVELOPING LOW DIGS INTO THE EASTERN 1/2 OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS CONTINUES TO RESULT IN
SUBTLE DIFFERENCES (150 MILE SPREAD) IN TRACK OF AN INTENSIFYING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES FROM OFF THE NC COAST SUN EVENING AND
THEN SE OF THE 40/70 LAT/LON BENCHMARK ON MONDAY. THIS IS
ACCENTUATING DIFFERENCES IN THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE DEFORMATION
BANDING AND PRECIPITATION SHIELD...WITH SNOWFALL VARYING ANYWHERE
FROM A TRACE TO INCH FROM W TO E (GFS/ECMWF)...OR TRACE TO 2
INCHES WEST TO 2 TO 4 INCHES EAST (GEM/NAM). OVERALL...A SLIGHT
EASTWARD AND DRIER TREND HAS BEEN NOTED WITH THE 12Z GUIDANCE
VERSUS 00Z.

IN TERMS OF ENSEMBLES...WESTERN LYING 15Z SREF MEAN IS HOLDING
FIRM WITH AROUND 1/2 TO 1 INCH QPF ACROSS THE REGION WITH MEAN
LYING IN THE MIDDLE OF A TRI- MODAL PATTERN. MEANWHILE 12Z GEFS
HAS MEAN OF .05 TO .1 INCH QPF AREAWIDE...WHICH IS BETWEEN THE
STRONG CLUSTERING AROUND THE OPERATIONAL GFS OF ONLY A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AREA WIDE...TO A HANDFUL OF MEMBERS WITH
1/4 TO 1/2 INCH QPF.

00Z AND 12Z SBU ENSEMBLE SENSITIVITY INDICATING ENSEMBLE SPREAD
IS ON THE NW SIDE OF THE GEFS/ECMWF/CMC ENSEMBLE MEANS FOR THE
LOW TRACK...WITH SENSITIVITY LYING IN THE STRENGTH AND
INTERACTION OF THE AFORE MENTIONED UPPER LOWS. THIS NW SPREAD
PATTERN...HAS MANY TIMES FAVORED WESTERN MOST SOLUTIONS OR
WESTWARD TREND IN LOW PRESSURE TRACK.

BASED ON THE ABOVE...HESITANT TO MAKE MANY CHANGES TO THE CURRENT
FORECAST...PARTICULARLY TOWARDS THE DRIER DETERMINISTIC TREND. A
BLEND OF DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE QPF PROBABILITIES INDICATING
INCREASING LIKELIHOOD FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING EAST OF NYC AND HUDSON RIVER.
LOWER PROBABILITIES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WEST OF THE NYC
METRO AND HUDSON RIVER. PRECIPITATION SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE FORM
OF SNOW...BUT MAY INITIALLY START AS A MIX WITH RAIN ACROSS
EASTERN LONG ISLAND DUE TO WARM BOUNDARY LAYER.

WILL CONTINUE WITH A GOING FORECAST FOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY WITH...

A LIKELY SCENARIO OF A DUSTING TO COUPLE INCHES ACROSS NYC METRO
AND POINTS WEST AND 2 TO 4 INCHES TOWARDS EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND
SE CT.

A CHANCE SCENARIO FOR A WESTWARD SHIFT...AND DOUBLING OF THESE
AMOUNTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONFIDENCE THIS PERIOD IS LOW AS MODELS AND ENSEMBLES HAVE NOT COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE WINTER PATTERN FOR
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. INTENSE OFFSHORE LOW WILL CONTINUE MOVING
FURTHER NE AWAY FROM COAST MONDAY NIGHT. RIGHT BEHIND THIS SYSTEM IS
THE CONTINUATION OF A VERY ANOMALOUS PATTERN. BASED ON THE 12Z
GEFS...THE WESTERN NORTH AMERICA RIDGING HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE
BETWEEN 2 AND 3 SD ABOVE NORMAL. THE LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO
THE EASTERN STATES IS BETWEEN 3 AND 4 SD BELOW NORMAL. THIS TYPE OF
PATTERN IS USUALLY CAUSE FOR CONCERN AND MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE
SHOWING QUITE A LARGE SPREAD WITH IMPORTANT FEATURES AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT. SOME OF THIS COULD BE WITH HOW THEY HANDLE THE FIRST LOW
THAT MOVES AWAY FROM THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...A VERY ENERGETIC LONGWAVE TROUGH
SETS UP OVER THE EASTERN STATES. A PARENT LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE LAKES...TRANSFERRING SOMEWHERE NEAR THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
COAST. THIS NEW WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE ENE AWAY FROM
THE COAST TO SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF OF THE 40/70 BENCHMARK.
THERE IS A GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS AMONG THE DETERMINISTIC
MODELS...BUT THEY VARY IN HOW PRECIPITATION IS GENERATED DUE TO
PLACEMENT OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND AMPLITUDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. THEY SEEM TO BE KEYING ON AN INVERTED TROUGH TYPE
SIGNATURE. THE 12Z GFS/GEFS/CMC/CMC ENSEMBLE SEEM TO HAVE THIS
SETTING UP NEAR THE AREA FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE 12Z ECMWF HAS THIS SETTING UP A BIT FURTHER SOUTH
AWAY FROM OUR CWA. THE 15Z SREF MEAN IS SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF IDEA
AS WELL AS THE 12Z NAM. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF ENERGY WITHIN THIS
TROUGH AND SUBTLE CHANGES COULD MAKE A DIFFERENCE WHERE BEST LIFT
SETS UP. MODELS HAVE ALSO SHOWN PRETTY DRASTIC CHANGES WITH
IMPORTANT DYNAMICS OVER THE LAST FEW WEEKS...WHICH LEADS TO A
LOWER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.

WILL HOLD ONTO LIKELY POPS THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. FEEL CONTINUITY
IS THE WAY TO GO HERE AND HOPEFULLY AS WE GET CLOSER...WE WILL HAVE
A BETTER IDEA FOR WHERE THE INVERTED TROUGH AND BEST LIFT FROM UPPER
ENERGY WILL SET UP. THE TAKE HOME MESSAGE IS ACCUMULATING LIGHT SNOW
IS POSSIBLE AT SOME POINT MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER NE ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT ANOMALOUS TROUGH IS LIKELY TO REMAIN OVERHEAD.
CANNOT RULE OUT LIGHT SNOW WEDNESDAY...BUT FOR NOW IT APPEARS BEST
LIFT SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA. UPPER TROF AXIS SHIFTS EAST THURSDAY.
POPS TAPER DOWN TO CHANCE WEDNESDAY AND THEN SLIGHT CHANCE ON
THURSDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS DEEP UPPER LOW SETS UP ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CANADA. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH DRY AS BEST MOISTURE AXIS HAS
SHIFTED OFFSHORE FROM EARLIER WEEK ACTIVITY. ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS INTO
THE AREA SATURDAY. THE 12Z ECMWF HAS 850 HPA TEMPS DROPPING TO
BETWEEN -22C TO -26C.

FORECAST TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE LONG
TERM...WITH INCREASING PROBABILITY OF A SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR AND WELL
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AT THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST INTO SUNDAY
EVENING.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGHOUT TONIGHT...AND SHOULD
REMAIN SO INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS BECOME SE/E THEN ENE-NE AT
UNDER 10 KT LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY SUNDAY EVENING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR IN THE EVENING...THEN MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE
LATE...ESPECIALLY AT EASTERN TERMINALS IN -SN...POSSIBLY MIXED
WITH RAIN AT THE START FOR SOUTHERN/EASTERN TERMINALS. NE WINDS
G20-30+KT POSSIBLE. HIGHEST GUSTS EASTERN CT/LONG ISLAND
TERMINALS.
.MONDAY...MVFR OR LOWER LIKELY IN SNOW. NE-N WINDS G20-30KT
WESTERN TERMINALS AND 30-40KT EASTERN TERMINALS POSSIBLE.
.MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER LIKELY IN SNOW. MIXED
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.
N-NE WINDS G15-25KT POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY.
.WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN -SN. W-NW WINDS
G20-25KT POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECAST ON THE WATERS REMAINS ON TRACK THIS EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTH.

SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON ALL WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH. WINDS GUSTS AROUND 20 KT LIKELY
THROUGH THIS EVENING ON THE OCEAN AND EASTERN LONG ISLAND...WITH
SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 4 FT ON THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS.

AN AREA OF LOW PRES DEVELOPS OFF THE SE COAST SUNDAY...INTENSIFYING
AS IT TRACKS NE. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SUN NIGHT WITH
GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN OCEAN WATERS
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO MONDAY. POTENTIAL FOR GALES ON
THE WESTERN OCEAN WATERS AND EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND/BAYS. SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON REMAINDER OF THE WATERS. THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK OF LOW PRESSURE...AND IF IT TRACKS
CLOSER TO THE COAST...THE GALE THREAT WILL MOVE WESTWARD.

SCA IS LIKELY ON MOST WATERS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS SEVERAL
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE FORECAST TO PASS NEAR THE WATERS. WINDS
MAY TEMPORARILY DECREASE TUE NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT SEAS ON THE
OCEAN WILL REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT. WINDS THEN INCREASE ABOVE SCA LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THRU
MON...WITH LOW PROB FOR MODERATE PRECIPITATION. MOST IF NOT ALL
OF THE PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS LIKELY TO BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW
AT THIS TIME.

WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE MON NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
POTENTIAL FOR MINOR COASTAL IMPACTS MONDAY INTO MIDWEEK WITH A NEW
MOON ON MONDAY AND A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURES AFFECTING THE REGION.

AN INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE WILL HAVE NE/N WINDS INCREASING TO
POTENTIALLY GALE FORCE SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO MONDAY.
BASED ON A TRACK OF INTENSIFYING LOW THAT SHOULD BE SE OF THE
40/70 LAT/LON BENCHMARK AND COLD AIR DAMMING SIGNATURE...WOULD
EXPECT POTENTIAL FOR WINDS TO BE BACKED MORE TO THE N THAN NE.
THIS WOULD FAVOR THE LOWER SURGE GUIDANCE FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT HIGH TIDE CYCLES...WHICH WOULD KEEP IMPACTS MINOR AND
LIKELY LIMITED TO THE MOST VULNERABLE LOCALES. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR.

AS WE HEAD INTO TUESDAYS HIGH TIDE CYCLES...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
WINDS TO VEER MORE TO THE NE AS ADDITIONAL WAVE/S OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACK TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. THE SPRING ASTRONOMICAL TIDES
AND MULTI-TIDAL CYCLE NATURE OF THE EVENT WILL FAVOR ADDITIONAL
MINOR FLOODING...WITH POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD MINOR TO MODERATE
IMPACTS IN THE BACK BAY AREAS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT TO 6 PM EST
     MONDAY FOR ANZ335-338-345.
     GALE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ330-340-355.
     GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ350-353.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DS/NV
NEAR TERM...DS/NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...DS/NV
HYDROLOGY...DS/NV
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NV




000
FXUS61 KOKX 062357
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
657 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY.
INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST US COAST WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST...MOVING SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. AN ACTIVE WINTER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK AS SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE REGION.
HIGH PRESSURE MAY RETURN AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT. JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS
STREAMING ACROSS AND LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW THEY ARE MOVING
EAST AND THINNING SOMEWHAT. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT.

WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND WITH MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS...LOWS
SHOULD DROP WELL INTO THE TEENS INLAND AND LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S
FOR MOST OTHER LOCATIONS. SOME LOW 30S POSSIBLE IN THE NYC METRO.

FOR SUNDAY...A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY CONDITION WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS
AND WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION ON SW WINDS WILL HELP TEMPS RISE
CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SPLIT FLOW WITH MODEL IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW
OFF THE SE US COAST SUN EVENING PIVOTING NE SUN NIGHT TO SE OF THE
40/70 BENCHMARK MONDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE A SECOND LARGER CLOSED LOW
DEVELOPING LOW DIGS INTO THE EASTERN 1/2 OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS CONTINUES TO RESULT IN
SUBTLE DIFFERENCES (150 MILE SPREAD) IN TRACK OF AN INTENSIFYING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES FROM OFF THE NC COAST SUN EVENING AND
THEN SE OF THE 40/70 LAT/LON BENCHMARK ON MONDAY. THIS IS
ACCENTUATING DIFFERENCES IN THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE DEFORMATION
BANDING AND PRECIPITATION SHIELD...WITH SNOWFALL VARYING ANYWHERE
FROM A TRACE TO INCH FROM W TO E (GFS/ECMWF)...OR TRACE TO 2
INCHES WEST TO 2 TO 4 INCHES EAST (GEM/NAM). OVERALL...A SLIGHT
EASTWARD AND DRIER TREND HAS BEEN NOTED WITH THE 12Z GUIDANCE
VERSUS 00Z.

IN TERMS OF ENSEMBLES...WESTERN LYING 15Z SREF MEAN IS HOLDING
FIRM WITH AROUND 1/2 TO 1 INCH QPF ACROSS THE REGION WITH MEAN
LYING IN THE MIDDLE OF A TRI- MODAL PATTERN. MEANWHILE 12Z GEFS
HAS MEAN OF .05 TO .1 INCH QPF AREAWIDE...WHICH IS BETWEEN THE
STRONG CLUSTERING AROUND THE OPERATIONAL GFS OF ONLY A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AREA WIDE...TO A HANDFUL OF MEMBERS WITH
1/4 TO 1/2 INCH QPF.

00Z AND 12Z SBU ENSEMBLE SENSITIVITY INDICATING ENSEMBLE SPREAD
IS ON THE NW SIDE OF THE GEFS/ECMWF/CMC ENSEMBLE MEANS FOR THE
LOW TRACK...WITH SENSITIVITY LYING IN THE STRENGTH AND
INTERACTION OF THE AFORE MENTIONED UPPER LOWS. THIS NW SPREAD
PATTERN...HAS MANY TIMES FAVORED WESTERN MOST SOLUTIONS OR
WESTWARD TREND IN LOW PRESSURE TRACK.

BASED ON THE ABOVE...HESITANT TO MAKE MANY CHANGES TO THE CURRENT
FORECAST...PARTICULARLY TOWARDS THE DRIER DETERMINISTIC TREND. A
BLEND OF DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE QPF PROBABILITIES INDICATING
INCREASING LIKELIHOOD FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING EAST OF NYC AND HUDSON RIVER.
LOWER PROBABILITIES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WEST OF THE NYC
METRO AND HUDSON RIVER. PRECIPITATION SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE FORM
OF SNOW...BUT MAY INITIALLY START AS A MIX WITH RAIN ACROSS
EASTERN LONG ISLAND DUE TO WARM BOUNDARY LAYER.

WILL CONTINUE WITH A GOING FORECAST FOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY WITH...

A LIKELY SCENARIO OF A DUSTING TO COUPLE INCHES ACROSS NYC METRO
AND POINTS WEST AND 2 TO 4 INCHES TOWARDS EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND
SE CT.

A CHANCE SCENARIO FOR A WESTWARD SHIFT...AND DOUBLING OF THESE
AMOUNTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONFIDENCE THIS PERIOD IS LOW AS MODELS AND ENSEMBLES HAVE NOT COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE WINTER PATTERN FOR
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. INTENSE OFFSHORE LOW WILL CONTINUE MOVING
FURTHER NE AWAY FROM COAST MONDAY NIGHT. RIGHT BEHIND THIS SYSTEM IS
THE CONTINUATION OF A VERY ANOMALOUS PATTERN. BASED ON THE 12Z
GEFS...THE WESTERN NORTH AMERICA RIDGING HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE
BETWEEN 2 AND 3 SD ABOVE NORMAL. THE LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO
THE EASTERN STATES IS BETWEEN 3 AND 4 SD BELOW NORMAL. THIS TYPE OF
PATTERN IS USUALLY CAUSE FOR CONCERN AND MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE
SHOWING QUITE A LARGE SPREAD WITH IMPORTANT FEATURES AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT. SOME OF THIS COULD BE WITH HOW THEY HANDLE THE FIRST LOW
THAT MOVES AWAY FROM THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...A VERY ENERGETIC LONGWAVE TROUGH
SETS UP OVER THE EASTERN STATES. A PARENT LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE LAKES...TRANSFERRING SOMEWHERE NEAR THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
COAST. THIS NEW WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE ENE AWAY FROM
THE COAST TO SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF OF THE 40/70 BENCHMARK.
THERE IS A GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS AMONG THE DETERMINISTIC
MODELS...BUT THEY VARY IN HOW PRECIPITATION IS GENERATED DUE TO
PLACEMENT OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND AMPLITUDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. THEY SEEM TO BE KEYING ON AN INVERTED TROUGH TYPE
SIGNATURE. THE 12Z GFS/GEFS/CMC/CMC ENSEMBLE SEEM TO HAVE THIS
SETTING UP NEAR THE AREA FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE 12Z ECMWF HAS THIS SETTING UP A BIT FURTHER SOUTH
AWAY FROM OUR CWA. THE 15Z SREF MEAN IS SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF IDEA
AS WELL AS THE 12Z NAM. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF ENERGY WITHIN THIS
TROUGH AND SUBTLE CHANGES COULD MAKE A DIFFERENCE WHERE BEST LIFT
SETS UP. MODELS HAVE ALSO SHOWN PRETTY DRASTIC CHANGES WITH
IMPORTANT DYNAMICS OVER THE LAST FEW WEEKS...WHICH LEADS TO A
LOWER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.

WILL HOLD ONTO LIKELY POPS THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. FEEL CONTINUITY
IS THE WAY TO GO HERE AND HOPEFULLY AS WE GET CLOSER...WE WILL HAVE
A BETTER IDEA FOR WHERE THE INVERTED TROUGH AND BEST LIFT FROM UPPER
ENERGY WILL SET UP. THE TAKE HOME MESSAGE IS ACCUMULATING LIGHT SNOW
IS POSSIBLE AT SOME POINT MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER NE ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT ANOMALOUS TROUGH IS LIKELY TO REMAIN OVERHEAD.
CANNOT RULE OUT LIGHT SNOW WEDNESDAY...BUT FOR NOW IT APPEARS BEST
LIFT SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA. UPPER TROF AXIS SHIFTS EAST THURSDAY.
POPS TAPER DOWN TO CHANCE WEDNESDAY AND THEN SLIGHT CHANCE ON
THURSDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS DEEP UPPER LOW SETS UP ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CANADA. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH DRY AS BEST MOISTURE AXIS HAS
SHIFTED OFFSHORE FROM EARLIER WEEK ACTIVITY. ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS INTO
THE AREA SATURDAY. THE 12Z ECMWF HAS 850 HPA TEMPS DROPPING TO
BETWEEN -22C TO -26C.

FORECAST TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE LONG
TERM...WITH INCREASING PROBABILITY OF A SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR AND WELL
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AT THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST INTO SUNDAY
EVENING.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGHOUT TONIGHT...AND SHOULD
REMAIN SO INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS BECOME SE/E THEN ENE-NE AT
UNDER 10 KT LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY SUNDAY EVENING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR IN THE EVENING...THEN MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE
LATE...ESPECIALLY AT EASTERN TERMINALS IN -SN...POSSIBLY MIXED
WITH RAIN AT THE START FOR SOUTHERN/EASTERN TERMINALS. NE WINDS
G20-30+KT POSSIBLE. HIGHEST GUSTS EASTERN CT/LONG ISLAND
TERMINALS.
.MONDAY...MVFR OR LOWER LIKELY IN SNOW. NE-N WINDS G20-30KT
WESTERN TERMINALS AND 30-40KT EASTERN TERMINALS POSSIBLE.
.MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER LIKELY IN SNOW. MIXED
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.
N-NE WINDS G15-25KT POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY.
.WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN -SN. W-NW WINDS
G20-25KT POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECAST ON THE WATERS REMAINS ON TRACK THIS EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTH.

SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON ALL WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH. WINDS GUSTS AROUND 20 KT LIKELY
THROUGH THIS EVENING ON THE OCEAN AND EASTERN LONG ISLAND...WITH
SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 4 FT ON THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS.

AN AREA OF LOW PRES DEVELOPS OFF THE SE COAST SUNDAY...INTENSIFYING
AS IT TRACKS NE. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SUN NIGHT WITH
GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN OCEAN WATERS
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO MONDAY. POTENTIAL FOR GALES ON
THE WESTERN OCEAN WATERS AND EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND/BAYS. SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON REMAINDER OF THE WATERS. THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK OF LOW PRESSURE...AND IF IT TRACKS
CLOSER TO THE COAST...THE GALE THREAT WILL MOVE WESTWARD.

SCA IS LIKELY ON MOST WATERS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS SEVERAL
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE FORECAST TO PASS NEAR THE WATERS. WINDS
MAY TEMPORARILY DECREASE TUE NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT SEAS ON THE
OCEAN WILL REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT. WINDS THEN INCREASE ABOVE SCA LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THRU
MON...WITH LOW PROB FOR MODERATE PRECIPITATION. MOST IF NOT ALL
OF THE PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS LIKELY TO BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW
AT THIS TIME.

WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE MON NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
POTENTIAL FOR MINOR COASTAL IMPACTS MONDAY INTO MIDWEEK WITH A NEW
MOON ON MONDAY AND A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURES AFFECTING THE REGION.

AN INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE WILL HAVE NE/N WINDS INCREASING TO
POTENTIALLY GALE FORCE SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO MONDAY.
BASED ON A TRACK OF INTENSIFYING LOW THAT SHOULD BE SE OF THE
40/70 LAT/LON BENCHMARK AND COLD AIR DAMMING SIGNATURE...WOULD
EXPECT POTENTIAL FOR WINDS TO BE BACKED MORE TO THE N THAN NE.
THIS WOULD FAVOR THE LOWER SURGE GUIDANCE FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT HIGH TIDE CYCLES...WHICH WOULD KEEP IMPACTS MINOR AND
LIKELY LIMITED TO THE MOST VULNERABLE LOCALES. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR.

AS WE HEAD INTO TUESDAYS HIGH TIDE CYCLES...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
WINDS TO VEER MORE TO THE NE AS ADDITIONAL WAVE/S OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACK TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. THE SPRING ASTRONOMICAL TIDES
AND MULTI-TIDAL CYCLE NATURE OF THE EVENT WILL FAVOR ADDITIONAL
MINOR FLOODING...WITH POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD MINOR TO MODERATE
IMPACTS IN THE BACK BAY AREAS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT TO 6 PM EST
     MONDAY FOR ANZ335-338-345.
     GALE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ330-340-355.
     GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ350-353.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DS/NV
NEAR TERM...DS/NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...DS/NV
HYDROLOGY...DS/NV
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NV



000
FXUS61 KOKX 062357
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
657 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY.
INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST US COAST WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST...MOVING SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. AN ACTIVE WINTER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK AS SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE REGION.
HIGH PRESSURE MAY RETURN AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT. JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS
STREAMING ACROSS AND LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW THEY ARE MOVING
EAST AND THINNING SOMEWHAT. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT.

WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND WITH MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS...LOWS
SHOULD DROP WELL INTO THE TEENS INLAND AND LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S
FOR MOST OTHER LOCATIONS. SOME LOW 30S POSSIBLE IN THE NYC METRO.

FOR SUNDAY...A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY CONDITION WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS
AND WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION ON SW WINDS WILL HELP TEMPS RISE
CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SPLIT FLOW WITH MODEL IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW
OFF THE SE US COAST SUN EVENING PIVOTING NE SUN NIGHT TO SE OF THE
40/70 BENCHMARK MONDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE A SECOND LARGER CLOSED LOW
DEVELOPING LOW DIGS INTO THE EASTERN 1/2 OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS CONTINUES TO RESULT IN
SUBTLE DIFFERENCES (150 MILE SPREAD) IN TRACK OF AN INTENSIFYING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES FROM OFF THE NC COAST SUN EVENING AND
THEN SE OF THE 40/70 LAT/LON BENCHMARK ON MONDAY. THIS IS
ACCENTUATING DIFFERENCES IN THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE DEFORMATION
BANDING AND PRECIPITATION SHIELD...WITH SNOWFALL VARYING ANYWHERE
FROM A TRACE TO INCH FROM W TO E (GFS/ECMWF)...OR TRACE TO 2
INCHES WEST TO 2 TO 4 INCHES EAST (GEM/NAM). OVERALL...A SLIGHT
EASTWARD AND DRIER TREND HAS BEEN NOTED WITH THE 12Z GUIDANCE
VERSUS 00Z.

IN TERMS OF ENSEMBLES...WESTERN LYING 15Z SREF MEAN IS HOLDING
FIRM WITH AROUND 1/2 TO 1 INCH QPF ACROSS THE REGION WITH MEAN
LYING IN THE MIDDLE OF A TRI- MODAL PATTERN. MEANWHILE 12Z GEFS
HAS MEAN OF .05 TO .1 INCH QPF AREAWIDE...WHICH IS BETWEEN THE
STRONG CLUSTERING AROUND THE OPERATIONAL GFS OF ONLY A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AREA WIDE...TO A HANDFUL OF MEMBERS WITH
1/4 TO 1/2 INCH QPF.

00Z AND 12Z SBU ENSEMBLE SENSITIVITY INDICATING ENSEMBLE SPREAD
IS ON THE NW SIDE OF THE GEFS/ECMWF/CMC ENSEMBLE MEANS FOR THE
LOW TRACK...WITH SENSITIVITY LYING IN THE STRENGTH AND
INTERACTION OF THE AFORE MENTIONED UPPER LOWS. THIS NW SPREAD
PATTERN...HAS MANY TIMES FAVORED WESTERN MOST SOLUTIONS OR
WESTWARD TREND IN LOW PRESSURE TRACK.

BASED ON THE ABOVE...HESITANT TO MAKE MANY CHANGES TO THE CURRENT
FORECAST...PARTICULARLY TOWARDS THE DRIER DETERMINISTIC TREND. A
BLEND OF DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE QPF PROBABILITIES INDICATING
INCREASING LIKELIHOOD FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING EAST OF NYC AND HUDSON RIVER.
LOWER PROBABILITIES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WEST OF THE NYC
METRO AND HUDSON RIVER. PRECIPITATION SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE FORM
OF SNOW...BUT MAY INITIALLY START AS A MIX WITH RAIN ACROSS
EASTERN LONG ISLAND DUE TO WARM BOUNDARY LAYER.

WILL CONTINUE WITH A GOING FORECAST FOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY WITH...

A LIKELY SCENARIO OF A DUSTING TO COUPLE INCHES ACROSS NYC METRO
AND POINTS WEST AND 2 TO 4 INCHES TOWARDS EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND
SE CT.

A CHANCE SCENARIO FOR A WESTWARD SHIFT...AND DOUBLING OF THESE
AMOUNTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONFIDENCE THIS PERIOD IS LOW AS MODELS AND ENSEMBLES HAVE NOT COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE WINTER PATTERN FOR
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. INTENSE OFFSHORE LOW WILL CONTINUE MOVING
FURTHER NE AWAY FROM COAST MONDAY NIGHT. RIGHT BEHIND THIS SYSTEM IS
THE CONTINUATION OF A VERY ANOMALOUS PATTERN. BASED ON THE 12Z
GEFS...THE WESTERN NORTH AMERICA RIDGING HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE
BETWEEN 2 AND 3 SD ABOVE NORMAL. THE LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO
THE EASTERN STATES IS BETWEEN 3 AND 4 SD BELOW NORMAL. THIS TYPE OF
PATTERN IS USUALLY CAUSE FOR CONCERN AND MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE
SHOWING QUITE A LARGE SPREAD WITH IMPORTANT FEATURES AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT. SOME OF THIS COULD BE WITH HOW THEY HANDLE THE FIRST LOW
THAT MOVES AWAY FROM THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...A VERY ENERGETIC LONGWAVE TROUGH
SETS UP OVER THE EASTERN STATES. A PARENT LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE LAKES...TRANSFERRING SOMEWHERE NEAR THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
COAST. THIS NEW WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE ENE AWAY FROM
THE COAST TO SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF OF THE 40/70 BENCHMARK.
THERE IS A GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS AMONG THE DETERMINISTIC
MODELS...BUT THEY VARY IN HOW PRECIPITATION IS GENERATED DUE TO
PLACEMENT OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND AMPLITUDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. THEY SEEM TO BE KEYING ON AN INVERTED TROUGH TYPE
SIGNATURE. THE 12Z GFS/GEFS/CMC/CMC ENSEMBLE SEEM TO HAVE THIS
SETTING UP NEAR THE AREA FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE 12Z ECMWF HAS THIS SETTING UP A BIT FURTHER SOUTH
AWAY FROM OUR CWA. THE 15Z SREF MEAN IS SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF IDEA
AS WELL AS THE 12Z NAM. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF ENERGY WITHIN THIS
TROUGH AND SUBTLE CHANGES COULD MAKE A DIFFERENCE WHERE BEST LIFT
SETS UP. MODELS HAVE ALSO SHOWN PRETTY DRASTIC CHANGES WITH
IMPORTANT DYNAMICS OVER THE LAST FEW WEEKS...WHICH LEADS TO A
LOWER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.

WILL HOLD ONTO LIKELY POPS THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. FEEL CONTINUITY
IS THE WAY TO GO HERE AND HOPEFULLY AS WE GET CLOSER...WE WILL HAVE
A BETTER IDEA FOR WHERE THE INVERTED TROUGH AND BEST LIFT FROM UPPER
ENERGY WILL SET UP. THE TAKE HOME MESSAGE IS ACCUMULATING LIGHT SNOW
IS POSSIBLE AT SOME POINT MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER NE ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT ANOMALOUS TROUGH IS LIKELY TO REMAIN OVERHEAD.
CANNOT RULE OUT LIGHT SNOW WEDNESDAY...BUT FOR NOW IT APPEARS BEST
LIFT SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA. UPPER TROF AXIS SHIFTS EAST THURSDAY.
POPS TAPER DOWN TO CHANCE WEDNESDAY AND THEN SLIGHT CHANCE ON
THURSDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS DEEP UPPER LOW SETS UP ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CANADA. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH DRY AS BEST MOISTURE AXIS HAS
SHIFTED OFFSHORE FROM EARLIER WEEK ACTIVITY. ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS INTO
THE AREA SATURDAY. THE 12Z ECMWF HAS 850 HPA TEMPS DROPPING TO
BETWEEN -22C TO -26C.

FORECAST TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE LONG
TERM...WITH INCREASING PROBABILITY OF A SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR AND WELL
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AT THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST INTO SUNDAY
EVENING.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGHOUT TONIGHT...AND SHOULD
REMAIN SO INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS BECOME SE/E THEN ENE-NE AT
UNDER 10 KT LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY SUNDAY EVENING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR IN THE EVENING...THEN MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE
LATE...ESPECIALLY AT EASTERN TERMINALS IN -SN...POSSIBLY MIXED
WITH RAIN AT THE START FOR SOUTHERN/EASTERN TERMINALS. NE WINDS
G20-30+KT POSSIBLE. HIGHEST GUSTS EASTERN CT/LONG ISLAND
TERMINALS.
.MONDAY...MVFR OR LOWER LIKELY IN SNOW. NE-N WINDS G20-30KT
WESTERN TERMINALS AND 30-40KT EASTERN TERMINALS POSSIBLE.
.MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER LIKELY IN SNOW. MIXED
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.
N-NE WINDS G15-25KT POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY.
.WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN -SN. W-NW WINDS
G20-25KT POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECAST ON THE WATERS REMAINS ON TRACK THIS EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTH.

SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON ALL WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH. WINDS GUSTS AROUND 20 KT LIKELY
THROUGH THIS EVENING ON THE OCEAN AND EASTERN LONG ISLAND...WITH
SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 4 FT ON THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS.

AN AREA OF LOW PRES DEVELOPS OFF THE SE COAST SUNDAY...INTENSIFYING
AS IT TRACKS NE. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SUN NIGHT WITH
GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN OCEAN WATERS
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO MONDAY. POTENTIAL FOR GALES ON
THE WESTERN OCEAN WATERS AND EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND/BAYS. SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON REMAINDER OF THE WATERS. THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK OF LOW PRESSURE...AND IF IT TRACKS
CLOSER TO THE COAST...THE GALE THREAT WILL MOVE WESTWARD.

SCA IS LIKELY ON MOST WATERS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS SEVERAL
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE FORECAST TO PASS NEAR THE WATERS. WINDS
MAY TEMPORARILY DECREASE TUE NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT SEAS ON THE
OCEAN WILL REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT. WINDS THEN INCREASE ABOVE SCA LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THRU
MON...WITH LOW PROB FOR MODERATE PRECIPITATION. MOST IF NOT ALL
OF THE PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS LIKELY TO BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW
AT THIS TIME.

WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE MON NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
POTENTIAL FOR MINOR COASTAL IMPACTS MONDAY INTO MIDWEEK WITH A NEW
MOON ON MONDAY AND A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURES AFFECTING THE REGION.

AN INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE WILL HAVE NE/N WINDS INCREASING TO
POTENTIALLY GALE FORCE SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO MONDAY.
BASED ON A TRACK OF INTENSIFYING LOW THAT SHOULD BE SE OF THE
40/70 LAT/LON BENCHMARK AND COLD AIR DAMMING SIGNATURE...WOULD
EXPECT POTENTIAL FOR WINDS TO BE BACKED MORE TO THE N THAN NE.
THIS WOULD FAVOR THE LOWER SURGE GUIDANCE FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT HIGH TIDE CYCLES...WHICH WOULD KEEP IMPACTS MINOR AND
LIKELY LIMITED TO THE MOST VULNERABLE LOCALES. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR.

AS WE HEAD INTO TUESDAYS HIGH TIDE CYCLES...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
WINDS TO VEER MORE TO THE NE AS ADDITIONAL WAVE/S OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACK TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. THE SPRING ASTRONOMICAL TIDES
AND MULTI-TIDAL CYCLE NATURE OF THE EVENT WILL FAVOR ADDITIONAL
MINOR FLOODING...WITH POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD MINOR TO MODERATE
IMPACTS IN THE BACK BAY AREAS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT TO 6 PM EST
     MONDAY FOR ANZ335-338-345.
     GALE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ330-340-355.
     GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ350-353.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DS/NV
NEAR TERM...DS/NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...DS/NV
HYDROLOGY...DS/NV
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NV




000
FXUS61 KBOX 062250
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
550 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. AN OCEAN STORM MAY BRING A PLOWABLE SNOWFALL
TO SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW ARE LIKELY FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND POSSIBLY
LINGERING INTO THURSDAY. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT BRINGS BITTERLY COLD
CONDITIONS THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
4 PM UPDATE...

TONIGHT...

CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT PROVIDES DRY WEATHER TONIGHT ALONG WITH HIGH
PRES AT THE SURFACE JUST SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL RESULT IN
SW PRES GRADIENT/SURFACE WINDS AND YIELDING TEMPS NOT AS COLD AS
LAST NIGHT AS DEW PTS CLIMB INTO THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY ...

NOT MUCH CHANGE WITH CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRES AT THE
SURFACE. THUS EXPECTING A DRY COLUMN SUPPORTING LOTS OF SUNSHINE
AND LIGHT WINDS...WHICH WILL MAKE TEMPS IN THE L40S FEEL EVEN
MILDER.

SUNDAY NIGHT ...

1035 QUEBEC SURFACE HIGH ADVECTS SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR SOUTHWARD
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MEANWHILE MID LEVEL SOUTHERN STREAM
TROUGH OVER THE GULF STATES THIS AFTERNOON INDUCES CYCLOGENESIS
OFF THE EAST COAST OF FL THIS EVENING AND THEN RAPIDLY
INTENSIFYING INTO A SUB 980 MB LOW/GALE CENTER WELL EAST OF THE
NC COAST SUN NIGHT. TYPICALLY THIS TRACK IS TOO FAR OFFSHORE TO
YIELD ACCUMULATING SNOW TO SOUTHEAST MA. HOWEVER THIS CYCLONE HAS
A VERY LARGE CIRCULATION/WCB/FIREHOSE IN ADDITION TO 1035 MB
SURFACE HIGH OVER QUEBEC. THUS SNOW COMES ONSHORE 06Z-12 MON AND
WILL LIKELY HAVE SOME OCEAN EFFECT SNOW /OES/ COMPONENT GIVEN NE
WINDS AND SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR BLEEDING IN FROM THE NORTH. BIG
DIFFERENCES WITH MODEL QPF WITH NAM/ARW/NMM MOST ROBUST. EC/GFS
AND RGEM MORE MODEST SO FOLLOWED A MODEL BLEND GIVEN UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

DISCUSSION...
AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE FOR MUCH
IF NOT ALL OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THOUGH SIGNS CONTINUE TO SHOW
SOME DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH LATER THIS WEEK
ACROSS THE EAST. MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SIGNAL UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS THROUGH WED AND POSSIBLY INTO THU...THEN WILL START TO
SETTLE DOWN. HOWEVER...LOOKS LIKE WINTER TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH
IN WITH THE DRIER CONDITIONS LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

STILL PROBLEMS WITH SEPARATION BETWEEN SHORT WAVES IN THE OVERALL
CUTOFF LOW PRES/LONG WAVE TROUGH MON-WED...THOUGH DOES LOOK LIKE
SOME SETTLING IN WITH SOME OF THE DETAILS. HOWEVER...WITH UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE...WILL STILL SEE PERIODS OF PRECIP
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.

USED A BLEND OF MOST OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE ALONG WITH
ENSEMBLES WHICH GAVE REASONABLE CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

DETAILS...

MONDAY-TUESDAY...MODELS SETTLING IN WITH CONTINUE NE FLOW IN
PLACE. FIRST LOW PRES PASSES WELL SE OF NANTUCKET...BUT
COMBINATION OF THIS STRONG STORM /CENTRAL PRES FROM 970-978 HPA AS
IT PASSES MON AFTERNOON/ AND HIGH PRES RIDGING EXTENDING S OUT OF
QUEBEC ACROSS W NEW ENGLAND...VERY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT IN PLACE.
THIS WILL PRODUCE STRONG NE WINDS ACROSS E COASTAL
AREAS...GENERALLY S OF BOSTON. GUSTS MAY REACH UP TO 35-45 MPH
ALONG E COASTAL AREAS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...THEN WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH.

MODELS DO KEEP PUSHING NW FRINGE OF PRECIP INTO EASTERN AND
POSSIBLY CENTRAL AREAS...PLUS WILL LIKELY SEE COMBINATION OF OCEAN
EFFECT SNOW. NOTING AT LEAST CONDITIONAL CONDITIONS FOR LAKE
EFFECT ON BOTH GFS AND 4 KM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS LATE MON/MON NIGHT.

DID HAVE ISSUES WITH QPF FORECAST...THOUGH WITH STRONG ONSHORE
WINDS SHOULD SEE SOME ENHANCEMENT THERE. USED A BLEND OF WPC
GUIDANCE... 12Z GFS AND A TOUCH OF THE 15Z SREF...WITH HIGHEST
AMOUNTS ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z MONDAY WITH
INITIAL SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS LOW PASSES.

WITH THE COMBINATION OF INITIAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRONG
ONSHORE WINDS ENHANCING THE PRECIPITATION...EXPECT TO SEE BEST
CHANCE FOR SNOW ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS INTO PLYMOUTH
COUNTY. PARTIAL THICKNESSES SUPPORT MAINLY SNOW...THOUGH COULD SEE
SOME MIX WITH RAIN DURING TUESDAY WITH LIGHTER PRECIP. BASED ON
THIS...HAVE ISSUED WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THOSE AREAS MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF BUT NOT TOTALLY END DURING TUESDAY AS
UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL SITS CLOSE TO THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP
CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE AND KEEPING LIGHT SNOWFALL IN PLACE. WILL
LIKELY ALSO SEE A MIX WITH RAIN ALONG THE S COAST. BEST SHOT FOR
PRECIP WILL REMAIN ACROSS S COASTAL AREAS...THOUGH LOOKS TO BECOME
A BIT MORE SPOTTY TUE NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED FOR MOST OF THIS
PERIOD. WILL SEE CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. NOT A LOT
OF QPF TO DEAL WITH...MORE NUISANCE SNOW BUT COULD STILL SEE LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH MIDDAY WED. AS UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE
TROUGHING STARTS TO FLATTEN...NOTING AN ARCTIC FRONT IN THE NW
FLOW. EXPECT TO CROSS THE REGION LATE WED NIGHT OR EARLY
THU...WHICH WILL BE A DRY PASSAGE. EXPECT NW WINDS TO PICK UP ON
THU ALONG AS ARCTIC AIRMASS SHIFTS SE. HIGHS THU WILL ONLY BE IN
THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...EXPECT DRY TO VERY COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE.
ANOTHER REINFORCING ARCTIC FRONT CROSSES FRI NIGHT...WITH EVEN
COLDER AIR MOVING IN. CURRENT FORECAST SUGGESTS HIGHS ON SATURDAY
RUNNING AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS FOR MID FEBRUARY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

THRU TONIGHT ... HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR VFR/DRY AND LIGHT
SW WIND. WINDS MAY GUSTS UP TO 15-20 KT CAPE COD AND ISLANDS THIS
EVENING.

SUNDAY ... HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
BECOMING NE TOWARD SUNSET.

SUNDAY NIGHT ... VFR AND DRY THRU ABOUT MIDNIGHT. THEN LOWERING TO
MVFR WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SNOW OR MIX RAIN/SNOW TOWARD
DAYBREAK MON. NE WINDS GUSTING UP TO 35 KT CAPE COD AND ISLANDS
TOWARD 12Z MON.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE THRU SUN EVENING THEN LOWERING
LATE SUN NIGHT REGARDING ARRIVAL OF LOWER CIGS/VSBYS IN SNOW/RAIN.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MONDAY-TUESDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/IFR VSBYS IN -SN ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.
LOWEST CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS E MA/RI...WHERE THEY MAY SEE
PERIODS OF MODERATE SNOW IN OCEAN EFFECT ESPECIALLY SE COASTAL MA
/PLYMOUTH COUNTY/...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS LATE MON AND MON
NIGHT. MAY SEE MIXED -RN-SN ALONG E COAST TUE AFTERNOON. NE WIND
GUSTS UP TO 35 KT MON INTO MON NIGHT ALONG IMMEDIATE E COASTAL
MA...DIMINISHING TO AROUND 25 KT TUE.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT -SHSN TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION AS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. MAY SEE MIX WITH -RA ALONG S COAST
WED AFTERNOON. COULD SEE PERIODS OF MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR
CIGS/VSBYS... MAINLY WED-WED NIGHT. CONDITIONS SHOULD SLOWLY
IMPROVE TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THU. N-NE WIND GUSTS
AROUND 25 KT EARLY WED WILL DIMINISH BY AROUND MIDDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT AND SUNDAY ... TRANQUIL WIND AND SEAS ALONG WITH DRY
WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY.

SUNDAY NIGHT ... NE WINDS LIKELY INCREASE TO GALE FORCE ACROSS THE
RI AND SOUTHERN MA WATERS. THUS GALE WARNINGS POSTED. LOW
PROBABILITY NORTH OF CAPE COD SO GALE WATCHES POSTED THERE. VSBY
LOWERING IN SNOW LATE. SEAS WILL BUILD RAPIDLY WITH POWERFUL LOW
PRES OFF THE NC COAST COMBINING WITH 1035 MB SURFACE HIGH OVER
QUEBEC.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...

MONDAY...GALE CENTER WILL PASS WELL SE OF NANTUCKET...BUT GALE
FORCE GUSTS WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND WELL NW OF THE CENTER. NE
WINDS GUSTING TO 35-45 KT...HIGHEST E AND S OF CAPE COD AND
NANTUCKET... WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE MORNING THEN WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND MON NIGHT. SEAS UP TO 14-18 FT
ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE MON AFTERNOON.
VSBY RESTRICTIONS FOR AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW MON-MON
NIGHT.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME. NE WINDS IN PLACE TUE AND TUE NIGHT...GUSTING UP
TO 25-30 KT...WITH SEAS UP TO 8-11 FT. EXPECT WINDS TO BACK TO
N-NW WITH GUSTS CONTINUING AT AROUND 25 KT. SEAS WILL BUILD AGAIN
ON TUESDAY...HIGHEST E AND S OF NANTUCKET...UP TO 9-14 KT AS
ANOTHER LOW PASSES SE OF NANTUCKET. VSBY RESTRICTIONS CONTINUE FOR
LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW.

THURSDAY...NW WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST UP TO 25-30 KT. LOW RISK OF
GUSTS UP TO 35 KT THU NIGHT E AND S OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET.
SEAS UP TO 7-11 FT ON THE SE OUTER WATERS. LOCAL VSBY RESTRICTIONS
IN SCT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS...BUT SHOULD IMPROVE THU
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRO TIDES LATE MON MORNING ARE HIGH WITH 11.2 FT AT BOSTON.
STRONG NE WINDS UP TO 40 KT WILL YIELD A STORM SURGE OF 1.5 FT TO
2.0 FT AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG WAVE
ACTION OF 12-18 FT JUST OFFSHORE WILL YIELD A RISK OF MODERATE
COASTAL FLOODING.

ETSS WAS A BIT HIGHER THAN ESTOFS AND SEEMS REASONABLE. WIND
FIELD DECREASES SUBSTANTIALLY NORTH OF PLYMOUTH COUNTY. THUS
THREAT OF COASTAL FLOODING IS LOWER FROM BOSTON NORTHWARD.
THEREFORE HAVE CONFINED THE COASTAL FLOOD WATCH SOUTH OF BOSTON
THRU PLYMOUTH TO CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET.

OTHER CONCERN IS BEACH EROSION GIVEN THE HIGH WATER LEVELS...STRONG
WAVE ACTION OVER MULTIPLE TIDE CYCLES. AGAIN APPEARS HIGHEST RISK
WILL BE SOUTH OF BOSTON. HOWEVER WILL HAVE TO MONITOR LATER MODEL
RUNS FOR POSSIBLE EXPANSION OF THE WATCH NORTHWARD.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MAZ019-022-024.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR MAZ018-019-021>024.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ231>235-237-254>256.
     GALE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ230-250-251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/EVT
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...NOCERA/EVT
MARINE...NOCERA/EVT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NOCERA




000
FXUS61 KBOX 062206
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
506 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. AN OCEAN STORM MAY BRING A PLOWABLE SNOWFALL
TO SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW ARE LIKELY FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND POSSIBLY
LINGERING INTO THURSDAY. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT BRINGS BITTERLY COLD
CONDITIONS THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
4 PM UPDATE...

TONIGHT...

CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT PROVIDES DRY WEATHER TONIGHT ALONG WITH HIGH
PRES AT THE SURFACE JUST SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL RESULT IN
SW PRES GRADIENT/SURFACE WINDS AND YIELDING TEMPS NOT AS COLD AS
LAST NIGHT AS DEW PTS CLIMB INTO THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY ...

NOT MUCH CHANGE WITH CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRES AT THE
SURFACE. THUS EXPECTING A DRY COLUMN SUPPORTING LOTS OF SUNSHINE
AND LIGHT WINDS...WHICH WILL MAKE TEMPS IN THE L40S FEEL EVEN
MILDER.

SUNDAY NIGHT ...

1035 QUEBEC SURFACE HIGH ADVECTS SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR SOUTHWARD
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MEANWHILE MID LEVEL SOUTHERN STREAM
TROUGH OVER THE GULF STATES THIS AFTERNOON INDUCES CYCLOGENESIS
OFF THE EAST COAST OF FL THIS EVENING AND THEN RAPIDLY
INTENSIFYING INTO A SUB 980 MB LOW/GALE CENTER WELL EAST OF THE
NC COAST SUN NIGHT. TYPICALLY THIS TRACK IS TOO FAR OFFSHORE TO
YIELD ACCUMULATING SNOW TO SOUTHEAST MA. HOWEVER THIS CYCLONE HAS
A VERY LARGE CIRCULATION/WCB/FIREHOSE IN ADDITION TO 1035 MB
SURFACE HIGH OVER QUEBEC. THUS SNOW COMES ONSHORE 06Z-12 MON AND
WILL LIKELY HAVE SOME OCEAN EFFECT SNOW /OES/ COMPONENT GIVEN NE
WINDS AND SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR BLEEDING IN FROM THE NORTH. BIG
DIFFERENCES WITH MODEL QPF WITH NAM/ARW/NMM MOST ROBUST. EC/GFS
AND RGEM MORE MODEST SO FOLLOWED A MODEL BLEND GIVEN UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...

LONGWAVE PATTERN SHOWS RIDGE WEST/TROUGH EAST AS BEFORE...WITH
INCREASING AMPLITUDE EARLY WEEK AND DECREASING AMPLITUDE LATE WEEK.
OVERALL A COLD AND UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  AT
SHORTER WAVE SCALES WE SEE THREE SHORTWAVES AFFECTING THE PATTERN.
THE FIRST IS IN THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY AND GENERATES COASTAL
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINAS SUNDAY. THIS SWINGS WIDE OF OUR
AREA...CROSSING ABOUT 4 DEGREES SOUTH OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK...AND
THEN SWEEPS NORTHEAST JUST SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA. THE SECOND
SHORTWAVE IS MOVING ASHORE IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND WILL CARVE A
DEEP COLD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN USA DURING THE EARLY WEEK.  THE
THIRD SHORTWAVE IS ALONG THE ARCTIC OCEAN COASTLINE AND WILL DROP
SOUTH INTO THE USA MIDWEEK.

OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE MASS FIELDS ARE SIMILAR ON THE BROAD SCALE MOST
OF THE PERIOD. BUT THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS...ESPECIALLY
REGARDING THE SECOND SHORTWAVE AND ITS DEVELOPING COASTAL SYSTEM
TUESDAY. THIS SECOND SHORTWAVE WAS JUST COMING ASHORE AT MEASUREMENT
TIME LAST NIGHT. THE 12Z SATURDAY MODELS SHOULD HAVE A BETTER READ
ON THE SHORTWAVE AND ITS EFFECTS. WE CONTINUE TO FAVOR A MODEL BLEND
ESPECIALLY USING THE GFS AND ECMWF.

THE DAILIES...

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY... COASTAL STORM PASSES WELL OFFSHORE...SOME 4
DEGREES SOUTH OF THE BENCHMARK. NORMALLY THAT WOULD MEAN A SWING AND
A MISS FOR STRIKE THREE. BUT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM QUEBEC
AND ESTABLISHES A PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT SHOULD BRING A NORTHEAST
MARINE FLOW WITH DELTA OF 13-15C. THIS SHOULD AT LEAST BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY. LESS CONFIDENCE ON PCPN
GIVEN MEDIOCRE FORCING AND CHANGING RUN-TO-RUN AMOUNTS.

MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON QPF DURING MONDAY WITH MAIN FOCUS ON CAPE
AND ISLANDS...POSSIBLY EASTERN MASS. WE HAVE BACKED OFF ONSET OF
POPS UNTIL 06-12Z MONDAY AND VALUE OF POPS BY ABOUT 20 PERCENT. THIS
STILL BRINGS POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES IN EASTERN MASS WITH
HIGHEST AMOUNTS CAPE COD/PLYMOUTH CO AREA.

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY... SECOND SHORTWAVE DIGS OVER THE MIDWEST WITH
SURFACE LOW REDEVELOPMENT ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS NEW
COASTAL LOW THEN MOVES PAST NEW ENGLAND. BETTER DYNAMICS AND
RESULTING LIFT SHOULD BE IN PLACE AND WITH DEEPER MOISTURE WOULD
EXPECT THIS TO BE A BETTER CHANCE OF PCPN THAN THE MONDAY OFFSHORE
SYSTEM. BUT THE RESPONSIBLE SHORTWAVE IS JUST NOW MOVING ASHORE AS
NOTED ABOVE. SO STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND ITS
POTENTIAL. WE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... UPPER TROUGH WITH ITS COLD POOL ALOFT
AND CLOUD SHIELD LINGER WEDNESDAY. THE ARCTIC SHORTWAVE THEN SWINGS
THROUGH ON THURSDAY. EXPECT QUITE A FEW CLOUDS DURING THIS PERIOD
WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. CLIPPER LOW THEN DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM
NORTHERN ONTARIO FRIDAY AND BRINGING MORE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS. MIXED LAYER REACHES EITHER SIDE OF 925 MB EACH DAY...A
LITTLE HIGHER THURSDAY BEHIND THE ARCTIC SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE
FRONT. TEMPS ALOFT AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER SUPPORT 30S
WEDNESDAY...20S WEST/32 EAST THURSDAY...AND 20S TO NEAR 30 FRIDAY.
AS NOTED EARLIER...COLD AND UNSETTLED.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

THRU TONIGHT ... HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR VFR/DRY AND LIGHT
SW WIND. WINDS MAY GUSTS UP TO 15-20 KT CAPE COD AND ISLANDS THIS
EVENING.

SUNDAY ... HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
BECOMING NE TOWARD SUNSET.

SUNDAY NIGHT ... VFR AND DRY THRU ABOUT MIDNIGHT. THEN LOWERING TO
MVFR WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SNOW OR MIX RAIN/SNOW TOWARD
DAYBREAK MON. NE WINDS GUSTING UP TO 35 KT CAPE COD AND ISLANDS
TOWARD 12Z MON.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE THRU SUN EVENING THEN LOWERING
LATE SUN NIGHT REGARDING ARRIVAL OF LOWER CIGS/VSBYS IN SNOW/RAIN.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MONDAY-TUESDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/IFR VSBYS IN -SN ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.
LOWEST CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS E MA/RI...WHERE THEY MAY SEE
PERIODS OF MODERATE SNOW IN OCEAN EFFECT ESPECIALLY SE COASTAL MA
/PLYMOUTH COUNTY/...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS LATE MON AND MON
NIGHT. MAY SEE MIXED -RN-SN ALONG E COAST TUE AFTERNOON. NE WIND
GUSTS UP TO 35 KT MON INTO MON NIGHT ALONG IMMEDIATE E COASTAL
MA... DIMINISHING TO AROUND 25 KT TUE.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT -SHSN TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION AS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. MAY SEE MIX WITH -RA ALONG S COAST
WED AFTERNOON. COULD SEE PERIODS OF MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR
CIGS/VSBYS... MAINLY WED-WED NIGHT. CONDITIONS SHOULD SLOWLY
IMPROVE TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THU. N-NE WIND GUSTS
AROUND 25 KT EARLY WED WILL DIMINISH BY AROUND MIDDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT AND SUNDAY ... TRANQUIL WIND AND SEAS ALONG WITH DRY
WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY.

SUNDAY NIGHT ... NE WINDS LIKELY INCREASE TO GALE FORCE ACROSS THE
RI AND SOUTHERN MA WATERS. THUS GALE WARNINGS POSTED. LOW
PROBABILITY NORTH OF CAPE COD SO GALE WATCHES POSTED THERE. VSBY
LOWERING IN SNOW LATE. SEAS WILL BUILD RAPIDLY WITH POWERFUL LOW
PRES OFF THE NC COAST COMBINING WITH 1035 MB SURFACE HIGH OVER
QUEBEC.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...

MONDAY...GALE CENTER WILL PASS WELL SE OF NANTUCKET...BUT GALE
FORCE GUSTS WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND WELL NW OF THE CENTER. NE
WINDS GUSTING TO 35-45 KT...HIGHEST E AND S OF CAPE COD AND
NANTUCKET... WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE MORNING THEN WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND MON NIGHT. SEAS UP TO 14-18 FT
ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE MON AFTERNOON.
VSBY RESTRICTIONS FOR AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW MON-MON
NIGHT.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME. NE WINDS IN PLACE TUE AND TUE NIGHT...GUSTING UP
TO 25-30 KT...WITH SEAS UP TO 8-11 FT. EXPECT WINDS TO BACK TO
N-NW WITH GUSTS CONTINUING AT AROUND 25 KT. SEAS WILL BUILD AGAIN
ON TUESDAY...HIGHEST E AND S OF NANTUCKET...UP TO 9-14 KT AS
ANOTHER LOW PASSES SE OF NANTUCKET. VSBY RESTRICTIONS CONTINUE FOR
LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW.

THURSDAY...NW WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST UP TO 25-30 KT. LOW RISK OF
GUSTS UP TO 35 KT THU NIGHT E AND S OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET.
SEAS UP TO 7-11 FT ON THE SE OUTER WATERS. LOCAL VSBY RESTRICTIONS
IN SCT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS...BUT SHOULD IMPROVE THU
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRO TIDES LATE MON MORNING ARE HIGH WITH 11.2 FT AT BOSTON.
STRONG NE WINDS UP TO 40 KT WILL YIELD A STORM SURGE OF 1.5 FT TO
2.0 FT AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG WAVE
ACTION OF 12-18 FT JUST OFFSHORE WILL YIELD A RISK OF MODERATE
COASTAL FLOODING.

ETSS WAS A BIT HIGHER THAN ESTOFS AND SEEMS REASONABLE. WIND
FIELD DECREASES SUBSTANTIALLY NORTH OF PLYMOUTH COUNTY. THUS
THREAT OF COASTAL FLOODING IS LOWER FROM BOSTON NORTHWARD.
THEREFORE HAVE CONFINED THE COASTAL FLOOD WATCH SOUTH OF BOSTON
THRU PLYMOUTH TO CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET.

OTHER CONCERN IS BEACH EROSION GIVEN THE HIGH WATER LEVELS...STRONG
WAVE ACTION OVER MULTIPLE TIDE CYCLES. AGAIN APPEARS HIGHEST RISK
WILL BE SOUTH OF BOSTON. HOWEVER WILL HAVE TO MONITOR LATER MODEL
RUNS FOR POSSIBLE EXPANSION OF THE WATCH NORTHWARD.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MAZ019-022-024.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR MAZ018-019-021>024.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ231>235-237-254>256.
     GALE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ230-250-251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/EVT
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...NOCERA/EVT
MARINE...NOCERA/EVT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NOCERA




000
FXUS61 KALY 062123
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
423 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER INTO SUNDAY. MEANWHILE A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK. SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MIDWEEK A LARGE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SETTLE INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL SET UP THE REGION FOR A PERIOD OF
TYPICAL FEBRUARY WEATHER...CLOUDY...COLD WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT
SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR SEVERAL DAYS. TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS AT
THIS TIME SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FOR TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH FROM SOUTHERN
CANADA INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL MAINLY
RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS OVERNIGHT ACROSS FAR NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FA WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE FA WILL REMAIN
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 20S.

ON SUNDAY THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND KEEPING THE COLDEST AIR LOCKED UP NORTH OF
THE BOUNDARY. THERE WILL BE INTERVALS OF CLOUDS AND SUN ON SUNDAY
ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S EXCEPT FOR SOME UPPER 20S ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A SERIES OF 500 HPA SHORT WVS CARVE A TROF AND THEN A CUTOFF OVER
THE GRTLKS RGN THROUGH THIS PERIOD. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM GENERALLY
FAIR CONDS WILL PREVAIL SUN NT. MON THE ONE STRONG S STREAM SHORT
WV EJECTS SOUTH OF THE RGN AS A CSTL STORM...BUT IT MAY INJECT
SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE E PRTNS OF FCA AS THE CUT OFF
APPROACHES.

OTHERWISE THE 500 HPA CUT OFF SUPPORTS A WEAKENING CLIPPER LOW
OVER THE GRT LKS RGN MON INTO MIDWEEK. THIS LEAVES THE RGN UNDER
A SPRAWLING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THROUGH OUT THE ATMOSPHERE. YET
ANOTHER COASTAL LOW IS SPAWNED BY THIS 500 HPA LOW...BUT ALL
DETERMINISTIC GUID KEEPS IT WEAK AND TO THE SOUTH OF FCA TUE.

SO WHILE THERE IS UNANIMOUS AGREEMENT AMONG THE ECMWF/GFS/NAM/GEM
DETERMINISTIC RUNS IN KEEPING THE SIGNIFICANT ACTION TO OUR
EAST...ITS JUST TO OUR EAST AS SVRL NOR EASTER TYPE STORMS PASS
JUST BEYOND THE RGN. ATTM THE GUID IS FCST MOSTLY FISH STORMS.

THEN THERE THE SREFS WITH QPF FM 0.10 TO A 1.3 LIQ EQUIV OUTLIER...GEFS
A TRACE TO 0.5 INCH LIQ EQ.

SO THE CONSENSUS SUPPORTS FCA IN TYPICAL FEB REGIME. COLD...AS
ALL PCPN WILL BE -SN OR -SNSH...CLOUDY BUT QPF CONSTRAINED BY
LIMITED TO AT MOST MODEST MOISTURE. SNSH/-SN WILL BE FOCUSED BY PASSING
SHORT WVS...A NW-SE ORIENTED TROF THAT SHIFTS NE ACROSS THE
RGN...AS WELL AS THESE SYSTEMS ABILITY TO TRIGGER A LK EFFECT
RESPONSE...AND SOME MOISTURE INJECTIONS FM COASTAL STORMS PASSING
JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THE NET QPF IN THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS OVER THE
WHOLE PERIOD ARE ON THE ORDER OF A QUARTER OF AN INCH QPF...PLUS
OR MINUS A TENTH WITH A BIT MORE OVER MTN RIDGES.

WHILE THE MODEL SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT ON THE GENERAL SCENARIO...ALL
KEEPING THE SIGNIFICANT STORMS AT BAY TO OUR SOUTH...THEY DO VARY
ON THE TIMING OF FORCING MECHANISMS. FCA REMAINS UNCOMFORTABLY
CLOSE TO SHARP GRADIENTS OF PCPN AS EVIDENCED BY THE PLUMES AND
PERCENTAGES IN THE ENSEMBLE WPC OUTPUT.

FOR NOW THE BLEND IS THE BEST APPROACH TO ADDRESSING THIS DEGREE
OF UNCERTAINTY. TEMPS WILL REMAIN COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...WITH NR
NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS STILL TRENDING ABV NORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THIS LONG TERM PERIOD BRINGS THE LONGEST SUSTAINED COLD PERIOD
WE`VE SEEN THIS WINTER. THE 1ST CUTOFF AT 500 HPA LINGERS ONE
MORE DAY DEPARTING TO OUR EAST THURSDAY...AND CYCLOGENISUS ENSUES
IN THE GULF OF MAINE. HWVR THE SHRT WV PARADE CARVES OUT AND
REINFORCES THE FULL LATITUDE TROF IN THE EAST. IN ITS WAKE ARCTIC
AIR POURS SOUTH INTO THE RGN. THE COLDEST AIR IS USHERED INTO THE
RGN AS AN E-W CDFNT DROPS S INTO THE RGN AND COULD FOCUS SQUALLS
OR LES LATE WED.

OTRW THE RGN REMAINS UNDER A 500HPA CUT OFF. THE THREAT OF -SHSN CONTINUES
THROUGH THE EFP. TO THE FAR N...NW FLOW AND THE 500 HPA CUT OFF WILL
ENHANCE THE ACTIVITY OVER THE ADRNDKS. HWVR COVERAGE OF -SNSH WILL
DIMINISH TO MOSTLY N & W OF ALB. THE LES RESPONSE WILL ALSO DIMINISH
IN WAKE OF LAST CDFNT AS LLVL FLOW IS N-NW. SN ACCUMULATOINS WILL
BE LIGHT TO MODEST...BUT ONGOING FROM TIME TO TIME PARTICULARLY N
& W OF ALB. THE MOST NOTICABLE THING ABOUT THE EFP WILL TEMPS WILL
TURN BLO NORMALS THU...AND KEEP TRENDING DOWN.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD FOR
ALL TAF SITES. THROUGH 21Z SATURDAY AT KGFL...SOME VCSH
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AS WEAKENING SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES
MOVE EAST BUT ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE NO CHANGE IN ANY FLIGHT
CATEGORIES. CLOUD COVERAGE WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE AFTER 00Z SUNDAY
AND BY 12Z SUNDAY...ONLY A FEW MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE REGION.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS WE GO PAST 00Z SUNDAY AND
INCREASE TO 5-10 KNOTS AFTER 12Z SUNDAY OUT OF THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY NT TO WED NT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY:LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO CONCERNS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS AS
ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

THE THIRD WINTER SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE SEASON WAS ISSUED
ON FEBRUARY 4TH.

HIGHLIGHTS...REFER TO THE PRODUCTS FOR DETAILS (ALBESFALY):

DUE TO BELOW NORMAL SNOW COVER AND RIVER ICE...POTENTIAL FOR
SNOWMELT AND ICE JAM FLOODING IS LOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

HOWEVER BY LATE IN THE WEEK TEMPS WILL TREND BELOW NORMALS...AND
ICE FORMATION WILL INCREASE ON AREA RIVERS AND LAKES.

ALTHOUGH WATER SUPPLY LEVELS ARE NOT A CONCERN AT THE MOMENT...THERE
IS CURRENTLY VERY LITTLE SNOW WATER AVAILABLE FOR RESERVOIR RECHARGE
ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. IT WILL TAKE A STEADY SUPPLY OF RAIN AND
SNOW THROUGH SPRING INTO SUMMER FOR RESERVOIRS TO MAINTAIN ADEQUATE
LEVELS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...LFM
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER




000
FXUS61 KBOX 062113
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
413 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. AN OCEAN STORM MAY BRING A PLOWABLE SNOWFALL
TO SOUTHEAST MASACHUSETTS INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. PERIODS OF SNOW ARE LIKELY FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE REGION TUE...WED AND POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO THU. AN ARCTIC
COLD FRONT BRINGS BITTERLY COLD CONDITIONS THE END OF THE WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...

4 PM UPDATE...

TONIGHT...

CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT PROVIDES DRY WEATHER TONIGHT ALONG WITH HIGH
PRES AT THE SURFACE JUST SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL RESULT IN
SW PRES GRADIENT/SURFACE WINDS AND YIELDING TEMPS NOT AS COLD AS
LAST NIGHT AS DEW PTS CLIMB INTO THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

SUNDAY ...

NOT MUCH CHANGE WITH CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRES AT THE
SURFACE. THUS EXPECTING A DRY COLUMN SUPPORTING LOTS OF SUNSHINE
AND LIGHT WINDS...WHICH WILL MAKE TEMPS IN THE L40S FEEL EVEN
MILDER.

SUNDAY NIGHT ...

1035 QUEBEC SURFACE HIGH ADVECTS SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR SOUTHWARD
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MEANWHILE MID LEVEL SOUTHERN STREAM
TROUGH OVER THE GULF STATES THIS AFTERNOON INDUCES CYCLOGENESIS
OFF THE EAST COAST OF FL THIS EVENING AND THEN RAPIDLY
INTENSIFYING INTO A SUB 980 MB LOW/GALE CENTER WELL EAST OF THE
NC COAST SUN NIGHT. TYPICALLY THIS TRACK IS TOO FAR OFFSHORE TO
YIELD ACCUMULATING SNOW TO SOUTHEAST MA. HOWEVER THIS CYCLONE HAS
A VERY LARGE CIRCULATION/WCB/FIREHOSE IN ADDITION TO 1035 MB
SURFACE HIGH OVER QUEBEC. THUS SNOW COMES ONSHORE 06Z-12 MON AND
WILL LIKELY HAVE SOME OCEAN EFFECT SNOW /OES/ COMPONENT GIVEN NE
WINDS AND SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR BLEEDING IN FROM THE NORTH. BIG
DIFFERENCES WITH MODEL QPF WITH NAM/ARW/NMM MOST ROBUST. EC/GFS
AND RGEM MORE MODEST SO FOLLOWED A MODEL BLEND GIVEN UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

BIG PICTURE...

LONGWAVE PATTERN SHOWS RIDGE WEST/TROUGH EAST AS BEFORE...WITH
INCREASING AMPLITUDE EARLY WEEK AND DECREASING AMPLITUDE LATE WEEK.
OVERALL A COLD AND UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  AT
SHORTER WAVE SCALES WE SEE THREE SHORTWAVES AFFECTING THE PATTERN.
THE FIRST IS IN THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY AND GENERATES COASTAL
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINAS SUNDAY. THIS SWINGS WIDE OF OUR
AREA...CROSSING ABOUT 4 DEGREES SOUTH OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK...AND
THEN SWEEPS NORTHEAST JUST SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA. THE SECOND
SHORTWAVE IS MOVING ASHORE IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND WILL CARVE A
DEEP COLD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN USA DURING THE EARLY WEEK.  THE
THIRD SHORTWAVE IS ALONG THE ARCTIC OCEAN COASTLINE AND WILL DROP
SOUTH INTO THE USA MIDWEEK.

OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE MASS FIELDS ARE SIMILAR ON THE BROAD SCALE MOST
OF THE PERIOD. BUT THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS...ESPECIALLY
REGARDING THE SECOND SHORTWAVE AND ITS DEVELOPING COASTAL SYSTEM
TUESDAY. THIS SECOND SHORTWAVE WAS JUST COMING ASHORE AT MEASUREMENT
TIME LAST NIGHT. THE 12Z SATURDAY MODELS SHOULD HAVE A BETTER READ
ON THE SHORTWAVE AND ITS EFFECTS. WE CONTINUE TO FAVOR A MODEL BLEND
ESPECIALLY USING THE GFS AND ECMWF.

THE DAILIES...

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY... COASTAL STORM PASSES WELL OFFSHORE...SOME 4
DEGREES SOUTH OF THE BENCHMARK. NORMALLY THAT WOULD MEAN A SWING AND
A MISS FOR STRIKE THREE. BUT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM QUEBEC
AND ESTABLISHES A PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT SHOULD BRING A NORTHEAST
MARINE FLOW WITH DELTA OF 13-15C. THIS SHOULD AT LEAST BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY. LESS CONFIDENCE ON PCPN
GIVEN MEDIOCRE FORCING AND CHANGING RUN-TO-RUN AMOUNTS.

MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON QPF DURING MONDAY WITH MAIN FOCUS ON CAPE
AND ISLANDS...POSSIBLY EASTERN MASS. WE HAVE BACKED OFF ONSET OF
POPS UNTIL 06-12Z MONDAY AND VALUE OF POPS BY ABOUT 20 PERCENT. THIS
STILL BRINGS POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES IN EASTERN MASS WITH
HIGHEST AMOUNTS CAPE COD/PLYMOUTH CO AREA.

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY... SECOND SHORTWAVE DIGS OVER THE MIDWEST WITH
SURFACE LOW REDEVELOPMENT ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS NEW
COASTAL LOW THEN MOVES PAST NEW ENGLAND. BETTER DYNAMICS AND
RESULTING LIFT SHOULD BE IN PLACE AND WITH DEEPER MOISTURE WOULD
EXPECT THIS TO BE A BETTER CHANCE OF PCPN THAN THE MONDAY OFFSHORE
SYSTEM. BUT THE RESPONSIBLE SHORTWAVE IS JUST NOW MOVING ASHORE AS
NOTED ABOVE. SO STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND ITS
POTENTIAL. WE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... UPPER TROUGH WITH ITS COLD POOL ALOFT
AND CLOUD SHIELD LINGER WEDNESDAY. THE ARCTIC SHORTWAVE THEN SWINGS
THROUGH ON THURSDAY. EXPECT QUITE A FEW CLOUDS DURING THIS PERIOD
WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. CLIPPER LOW THEN DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM
NORTHERN ONTARIO FRIDAY AND BRINGING MORE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS. MIXED LAYER REACHES EITHER SIDE OF 925 MB EACH DAY...A
LITTLE HIGHER THURSDAY BEHIND THE ARCTIC SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE
FRONT. TEMPS ALOFT AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER SUPPORT 30S
WEDNESDAY...20S WEST/32 EAST THURSDAY...AND 20S TO NEAR 30 FRIDAY.
AS NOTED EARLIER...COLD AND UNSETTLED.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

THRU TONIGHT ... HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR VFR/DRY AND LIGHT
SW WIND. WINDS MAY GUSTS UP TO 15-20 KT CAPE COD AND ISLANDS THIS
EVENING.

SUNDAY ... HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
BECOMING NE TOWARD SUNSET.

SUNDAY NIGHT ... VFR AND DRY THRU ABOUT MIDNIGHT. THEN LOWERING TO
MVFR WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SNOW OR MIX RAIN/SNOW TOWARD
DAYBREAK MON. NE WINDS GUSTING UP TO 35 KT CAPE COD AND ISLANDS
TOWARD 12Z MON.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE THRU SUN EVENING THEN LOWERING
LATE SUN NIGHT REGARDING ARRIVAL OF LOWER CIGS/VSBYS IN SNOW/RAIN.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

TWO POTENTIAL STORMS DURING THIS PERIOD...EITHER COULD BRING
IFR/LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN SNOW. THE FIRST CHANCE FOR THIS WILL BE
MONDAY...WITH BEST CHANCE ON CAPE COD AND ISLANDS. NORTH-NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL GUST TO 35 KNOTS ALONG THE EASTERN MASS COAST. THE SECOND
CHANCE WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH ALL OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND UNDER THE GUN. CONDITIONS IMPROVE WEDNESDAY TO MVFR CIGS
WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT AND SUNDAY ... TRANQUIL WIND AND SEAS ALONG WITH DRY
WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY.

SUNDAY NIGHT ... NE WINDS LIKELY INCREASE TO GALE FORCE ACROSS THE
RI AND SOUTHERN MA WATERS. THUS GALE WARNINGS POSTED. LOW
PROBABILITY NORTH OF CAPE COD SO GALE WATCHES POSTED THERE. VSBY
LOWERING IN SNOW LATE. SEAS WILL BUILD RAPIDLY WITH POWERFUL LOW
PRES OFF THE NC COAST COMBINING WITH 1035 MB SURFACE HIGH OVER
QUEBEC.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...

TUESDAY...A SECOND WEATHER SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST AND MOVE OUTSIDE NANTUCKET. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER
PERIOD OF NORTHEAST WINDS WITH GUSTS OVER 25 KNOTS. THERE REMAIN
MANY QUESTIONS ABOUT THIS NEXT SYSTEM...AS WELL AS LOW POTENTIAL
FOR WINDS REACHING 35 KNOTS. SEAS WILL REMAIN AT 7 TO 11 FEET.

WEDNESDAY... WINDS DIMINISH AS THE SECOND COASTAL STORM MOVES OFF.
WIND SPEEDS SHOULD GO BELOW 25 KNOTS. ROUGH SEAS WILL LINGER MUCH OF
THE DAY ESPECIALLY ON THE SOUTHERN EXPOSED WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

ASTRO TIDES LATE MON MORNING ARE HIGH WITH 11.2 FT AT BOSTON.
STRONG NE WINDS UP TO 40 KT WILL YIELD A STORM SURGE OF 1.5 FT TO
2.0 FT AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG WAVE
ACTION OF 12-18 FT JUST OFFSHORE WILL YIELD A RISK OF MODERATE
COASTAL FLOODING.

ETSS WAS A BIT HIGHER THAN ESTOFS AND SEEMS REASONABLE. WIND
FIELD DECREASES SUBSTANTIALLY NORTH OF PLYMOUTH COUNTY. THUS
THREAT OF COASTAL FLOODING IS LOWER FROM BOSTON NORTHWARD.
THEREFORE HAVE CONFINED THE COASTAL FLOOD WATCH SOUTH OF BOSTON
THRU PLYMOUTH TO CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET.

OTHER CONCERN IS BEACH EROSION GIVEN THE HIGH WATER LEVELS...STRONG
WAVE ACTION OVER MULTIPLE TIDE CYCLES. AGAIN APPEARS HIGHEST RISK
WILL BE SOUTH OF BOSTON. HOWEVER WILL HAVE TO MONITOR LATER MODEL
RUNS FOR POSSIBLE EXPANSION OF THE WATCH NORTHWARD.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MAZ019-022-024.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MAZ018-019-021>024.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ231>235-237-254>256.
     GALE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ230-250-251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/NOCERA
MARINE...WTB/NOCERA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NOCERA




000
FXUS61 KOKX 062104
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
404 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY.
INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST US COAST WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST...MOVING SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. AN ACTIVE WINTER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK AS SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE REGION.
HIGH PRESSURE MAY RETURN AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN JUST TO OUR
SOUTH.

A FILTERED SUNSHINE THROUGH HIGH CLOUDS AND WEAK WAA ON SW WINDS
WILL HELP TEMPS RISE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

SPLIT FLOW WITH MODEL IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW
OFF THE SE US COAST SUN EVENING PIVOTING NE SUN NIGHT TO SE OF THE
40/70 BENCHMARK MONDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE A SECOND LARGER CLOSED LOW
DEVELOPING LOW DIGS INTO THE EASTERN 1/2 OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS CONTINUES TO RESULT IN
SUBTLE DIFFERENCES (150 MILE SPREAD) IN TRACK OF AN INTENSIFYING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES FROM OFF THE NC COAST SUN EVENING AND
THEN SE OF THE 40/70 LAT/LON BENCHMARK ON MONDAY. THIS IS
ACCENTUATING DIFFERENCES IN THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE DEFORMATION
BANDING AND PRECIP SHIELD...WITH SNOWFALL VARYING ANYWHERE FROM A
TRACE TO INCH FROM W TO E (GFS/ECMWF)...OR TRACE TO 2 INCHES WEST
TO 2 TO 4 INCHES EAST (GEM/NAM). OVERALL...A SLIGHT EASTWARD AND
DRIER TREND HAS BEEN NOTED WITH THE 12Z GUIDANCE VERSUS 00Z.

IN TERMS OF ENSEMBLES...WESTERN LYING 15Z SREF MEAN IS HOLDING
FIRM WITH AROUND 1/2 TO 1 INCH QPF ACROSS THE REGION WITH MEAN
LYING IN THE MIDDLE OF A TRI- MODAL PATTERN. MEANWHILE 12Z GEFS
HAS MEAN OF .05 TO .1 INCH QPF AREAWIDE...WHICH IS BETWEEN THE
STRONG CLUSTERING AROUND THE OPERATIONAL GFS OF ONLY A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AREA WIDE...TO A HANDFUL OF MEMBERS WITH
1/4 TO 1/2 INCH QPF.

00Z AND 12Z SBU ENSEMBLE SENSITIVITY INDICATING ENSEMBLE SPREAD
IS ON THE NW SIDE OF THE GEFS/ECMWF/CMC ENSEMBLE MEANS FOR THE
LOW TRACK...WITH SENSITIVITY LYING IN THE STRENGTH AND
INTERACTION OF THE AFORE MENTIONED UPPER LOWS. THIS NW SPREAD
PATTERN...HAS MANY TIMES FAVORED WESTERN MOST SOLUTIONS OR
WESTWARD TREND IN LOW PRESSURE TRACK.

BASED ON THE ABOVE...HESITANT TO MAKE MANY CHANGES TO THE CURRENT
FORECAST...PARTICULARLY TOWARDS THE DRIER DETERMINISTIC TREND. A
BLEND OF DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE QPF PROBS INDICATING
INCREASING LIKELIHOOD FOR LIGHT PRECIP TO DEVELOP LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING EAST OF NYC AND HUDSON RIVER. LOWER
PROBS FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP WEST OF THE NYC METRO AND HUDSON
RIVER. PRECIP SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW...BUT MAY
INITIALLY START AS A MIX WITH RAIN ACROSS EASTERN LI DUE TO WARM
BOUNDARY LAYER.

WILL CONTINUE WITH A GOING FORECAST FOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY WITH...

A LIKELY SCENARIO OF A DUSTING TO COUPLE INCHES ACROSS NYC METRO
AND POINTS WEST AND 2 TO 4 INCHES TOWARDS EASTERN LI AND SE CT.

A CHANCE SCENARIO FOR A WESTWARD SHIFT...AND DOUBLING OF THESE
AMOUNTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

CONFIDENCE THIS PERIOD IS LOW AS MODELS AND ENSEMBLES HAVE NOT COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE WINTER PATTERN FOR
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. INTENSE OFFSHORE LOW WILL CONTINUE MOVING
FURTHER NE AWAY FROM COAST MONDAY NIGHT. RIGHT BEHIND THIS SYSTEM IS
THE CONTINUATION OF A VERY ANOMALOUS PATTERN. BASED ON THE 12Z
GEFS...THE WESTERN NORTH AMERICA RIDGING HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE
BETWEEN 2 AND 3 SD ABOVE NORMAL. THE LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO
THE EASTERN STATES IS BETWEEN 3 AND 4 SD BELOW NORMAL. THIS TYPE OF
PATTERN IS USUALLY CAUSE FOR CONCERN AND MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE
SHOWING QUITE A LARGE SPREAD WITH IMPORTANT FEATURES AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT. SOME OF THIS COULD BE WITH HOW THEY HANDLE THE FIRST LOW
THAT MOVES AWAY FROM THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...A VERY ENERGETIC LONGWAVE TROUGH
SETS UP OVER THE EASTERN STATES. A PARENT LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE LAKES...TRANSFERRING SOMEWHERE NEAR THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
COAST. THIS NEW WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE ENE AWAY FROM
THE COAST TO SOMEWHERE INVOF OF THE 40/70 BENCHMARK. THERE IS A
GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS AMONG THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS...BUT
THEY VARY IN HOW PRECIPITATION IS GENERATED DUE TO PLACEMENT OF
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND AMPLITUDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THEY
SEEM TO BE KEYING ON AN INVERTED TROUGH TYPE SIGNATURE. THE 12Z
GFS/GEFS/CMC/CMC ENSEMBLE SEEM TO HAVE THIS SETTING UP NEAR THE AREA
FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE 12Z ECMWF HAS THIS
SETTING UP A BIT FURTHER SOUTH AWAY FROM OUR CWA. THE 15Z SREF MEAN
IS SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF IDEA AS WELL AS THE 12Z NAM. THERE IS QUITE
A BIT OF ENERGY WITHIN THIS TROUGH AND SUBTLE CHANGES COULD MAKE A
DIFFERENCE WHERE BEST LIFT SETS UP. MODELS HAVE ALSO SHOWN PRETTY
DRASTIC CHANGES WITH IMPORTANT DYNAMICS OVER THE LAST FEW
WEEKS...WHICH LEADS TO A LOWER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD.

WILL HOLD ONTO LIKELY POPS THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. FEEL CONTINUITY
IS THE WAY TO GO HERE AND HOPEFULLY AS WE GET CLOSER...WE WILL HAVE
A BETTER IDEA FOR WHERE THE INVERTED TROUGH AND BEST LIFT FROM UPPER
ENERGY WILL SET UP. THE TAKE HOME MESSAGE IS ACCUMULATING LIGHT SNOW
IS POSSIBLE AT SOME POINT MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER NE ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT ANOMALOUS TROUGH IS LIKELY TO REMAIN OVERHEAD.
CANNOT RULE OUT LIGHT SNOW WEDNESDAY...BUT FOR NOW IT APPEARS BEST
LIFT SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA. UPPER TROF AXIS SHIFTS EAST THURSDAY.
POPS TAPER DOWN TO CHANCE WEDNESDAY AND THEN SLIGHT CHANCE ON
THURSDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS DEEP UPPER LOW SETS UP ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CANADA. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH DRY AS BEST MOISTURE AXIS HAS
SHIFTED OFFSHORE FROM EARLIER WEEK ACTIVITY. ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS INTO
THE AREA SATURDAY. THE 12Z ECMWF HAS 850 HPA TEMPS DROPPING TO
BETWEEN -22C TO -26C.

FORECAST TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE LONG
TERM...WITH INCREASING PROBABILITY OF A SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR AND WELL
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AT THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE REGION WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SW WINDS AROUND 10 KT WILL DIMINISH TO
LESS THAN 10 KT THIS EVENING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 21Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.SUNDAY AFTERNOON...VFR. WINDS 5 KT OR LESS.
.SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN -SN...
ESPECIALLY FOR CT AND LONG ISLAND TERMINALS. NE WINDS AROUND 15 KT
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT.
.TUESDAY...SUB-VFR CONDS LIKELY IN SNOW. MIXED PRECIP POSSIBLE
NEAR THE COAST.
.WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN -SN.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-ADVSY CONDS WILL PREVAIL ON ALL WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH. WINDS GUSTS AROUND 20 KT LIKELY THROUGH THIS
EVENING ON THE OCEAN AND EASTERN LI...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO
AROUND 4 FT ON THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS.

AN AREA OF LOW PRES DEVELOPS OFF THE SE COAST SUNDAY...INTENSIFYING
AS IT TRACKS NE. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SUN NIGHT WITH
GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN OCEAN WATERS
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO MONDAY. POTENTIAL FOR GALES ON
THE WESTERN OCEAN WATERS AND EASTERN LI SOUND/BAYS. SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ON REMAINDER OF THE WATERS. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK OF LOW PRESSURE...AND IF IT TRACKS
CLOSER TO THE COAST...THE GALE THREAT WILL MOVE WESTWARD.

SCA IS LIKELY ON MOST WATERS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS SEVERAL
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE FORECAST TO PASS NEAR THE WATERS. WINDS
MAY TEMPORARILY DECREASE TUE NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT SEAS ON THE
OCEAN WILL REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT. WINDS THEN INCREASE ABOVE SCA LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THRU
MON...WITH LOW PROB FOR MODERATE PRECIP. MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE
PCPN THAT FALLS LIKELY TO BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW ATTM.

WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE MON NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

POTENTIAL FOR MINOR COASTAL IMPACTS MONDAY INTO MIDWEEK WITH A NEW
MOON ON MONDAY AND A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURES AFFECTING THE REGION.

AN INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE WILL HAVE NE/N WINDS INCREASING TO
POTENTIALLY GALE FORCE SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO MONDAY.
BASED ON A TRACK OF INTENSIFYING LOW THAT SHOULD BE SE OF THE
40/70 LAT/LON BENCHMARK AND COLD AIR DAMMING SIGNATURE...WOULD
EXPECT POTENTIAL FOR WINDS TO BE BACKED MORE TO THE N THAN NE.
THIS WOULD FAVOR THE LOWER SURGE GUIDANCE FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT HIGH TIDE CYCLES...WHICH WOULD KEEP IMPACTS MINOR AND
LIKELY LIMITED TO THE MOST VULNERABLE LOCALES. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR.

AS WE HEAD INTO TUESDAYS HIGH TIDAL CYCLES...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
WINDS TO VEER MORE TO THE NE AS ADDITIONAL WAVE/S OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACK TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. THE SPRING ASTRO TIDES AND MULTI-
TIDAL CYCLE NATURE OF THE EVENT WILL FAVOR ADDITIONAL MINOR
FLOODING...WITH POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD MINOR TO MODERATE IMPACTS
IN THE BACK BAY AREAS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT TO 6 PM EST
     MONDAY FOR ANZ335-338-345.
     GALE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ330-340-355.
     GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/NV
NEAR TERM...NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...DS/NV
HYDROLOGY...DS/NV
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NV




000
FXUS61 KALY 062006
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
306 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER INTO SUNDAY. MEANWHILE A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK. SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MIDWEEK A LARGE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SETTLE INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL SET UP THE REGION FOR A PERIOD OF
TYPICAL FEBRUARY WEATHER...CLOUDY...COLD WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT
SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR SEVERAL DAYS. TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS AT
THIS TIME SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FOR TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH FROM SOUTHERN
CANADA INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL MAINLY
RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS OVERNIGHT ACROSS FAR NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FA WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE FA WILL REMAIN
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 20S.

ON SUNDAY THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND KEEPING THE COLDEST AIR LOCKED UP NORTH OF
THE BOUNDARY. THERE WILL BE INTERVALS OF CLOUDS AND SUN ON SUNDAY
ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S EXCEPT FOR SOME UPPER 20S ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A SERIES OF 500 HPA SHORT WVS CARVE A TROF AND THEN A CUTOFF OVER
THE GRTLKS RGN THROUGH THIS PERIOD. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM GENERALLY
FAIR CONDS WILL PREVAIL SUN NT. MON THE ONE STRONG S STREAM SHORT
WV EJECTS SOUTH OF THE RGN AS A CSTL STORM...BUT IT MAY INJECT
SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE E PRTNS OF FCA AS THE CUT OFF
APPROACHES.

OTHERWISE THE 500 HPA CUT OFF SUPPORTS A WEAKENING CLIPPER LOW
OVER THE GRT LKS RGN MON INTO MIDWEEK. THIS LEAVES THE RGN UNDER
A SPRAWLING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THROUGH OUT THE ATMOSPHERE. YET
ANOTHER COASTAL LOW IS SPAWNED BY THIS 500 HPA LOW...BUT ALL
DETERMINISTIC GUID KEEPS IT WEAK AND TO THE SOUTH OF FCA TUE.

SO WHILE THERE IS UNANIMOUS AGREEMENT AMONG THE ECMWF/GFS/NAM/GEM
DETERMINISTIC RUNS IN KEEPING THE SIGNIFICANT ACTION TO OUR
EAST...ITS JUST TO OUR EAST AS SVRL NOR EASTER TYPE STORMS PASS
JUST BEYOND THE RGN. ATTM THE GUID IS FCST MOSTLY FISH STORMS.

THEN THERE THE SREFS WITH QPF FM 0.10 TO A 1.3 LIQ EQUIV OUTLIER...GEFS
A TRACE TO 0.5 INCH LIQ EQ.

SO THE CONSENSUS SUPPORTS FCA IN TYPICAL FEB REGIME. COLD...AS
ALL PCPN WILL BE -SN OR -SNSH...CLOUDY BUT QPF CONSTRAINED BY
LIMITED TO AT MOST MODEST MOISTURE. SNSH/-SN WILL BE FOCUSED BY PASSING
SHORT WVS...A NW-SE ORIENTED TROF THAT SHIFTS NE ACROSS THE
RGN...AS WELL AS THESE SYSTEMS ABILITY TO TRIGGER A LK EFFECT
RESPONSE...AND SOME MOISTURE INJECTIONS FM COASTAL STORMS PASSING
JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THE NET QPF IN THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS OVER THE
WHOLE PERIOD ARE ON THE ORDER OF A QUARTER OF AN INCH QPF...PLUS
OR MINUS A TENTH WITH A BIT MORE OVER MTN RIDGES.

WHILE THE MODEL SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT ON THE GENERAL SCENARIO...ALL
KEEPING THE SIGNIFICANT STORMS AT BAY TO OUR SOUTH...THEY DO VARY
ON THE TIMING OF FORCING MECHANISMS. FCA REMAINS UNCOMFORTABLY
CLOSE TO SHARP GRADIENTS OF PCPN AS EVIDENCED BY THE PLUMES AND
PERCENTAGES IN THE ENSEMBLE WPC OUTPUT.

FOR NOW THE BLEND IS THE BEST APPROACH TO ADDRESSING THIS DEGREE
OF UNCERTAINTY. TEMPS WILL REMAIN COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...WITH NR
NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS STILL TRENDING ABV NORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THIS LONG TERM PERIOD BRINGS THE LONGEST SUSTAINED COLD PERIOD
WE`VE SEEN THIS WINTER. THE 1ST CUTOFF AT 500 HPA LINGERS ONE
MORE DAY DEPARTING TO OUR EAST THURSDAY...AND CYCLOGENISUS ENSUES
IN THE GULF OF MAINE. HWVR THE SHRT WV PARADE CARVES OUT AND
REINFORCES THE FULL LATITUDE TROF IN THE EAST. IN ITS WAKE ARCTIC
AIR POURS SOUTH INTO THE RGN. THE COLDEST AIR IS USHERED INTO THE
RGN AS AN E-W CDFNT DROPS S INTO THE RGN AND COULD FOCUS SQUALLS
OR LES LATE WED.

OTRW THE RGN REMAINS UNDER A 500HPA CUT OFF. THE THREAT OF -SHSN CONTINUES
THROUGH THE EFP. TO THE FAR N...NW FLOW AND THE 500 HPA CUT OFF WILL
ENHANCE THE ACTIVITY OVER THE ADRNDKS. HWVR COVERAGE OF -SNSH WILL
DIMINISH TO MOSTLY N & W OF ALB. THE LES RESPONSE WILL ALSO DIMINISH
IN WAKE OF LAST CDFNT AS LLVL FLOW IS N-NW. SN ACCUMULATOINS WILL
BE LIGHT TO MODEST...BUT ONGOING FROM TIME TO TIME PARTICULARLY N
& W OF ALB. THE MOST NOTICABLE THING ABOUT THE EFP WILL TEMPS WILL
TURN BLO NORMALS THU...AND KEEP TRENDING DOWN.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD FOR
ALL TAF SITES. THROUGH 21Z SATURDAY AT KGFL...SOME VCSH
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AS WEAKENING SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES
MOVE EAST BUT ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE NO CHANGE IN ANY FLIGHT
CATEGORIES. CLOUD COVERAGE WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE AFTER 00Z SUNDAY
AND BY 12Z SUNDAY...ONLY A FEW MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE REGION.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS WE GO PAST 00Z SUNDAY AND
INCREASE TO 5-10 KNOTS AFTER 12Z SUNDAY OUT OF THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO CONCERNS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS AS ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT OR IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

THE THIRD WINTER SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE SEASON WAS ISSUED
ON FEBRUARY 4TH.

HIGHLIGHTS...REFER TO THE PRODUCTS FOR DETAILS (ALBESFALY):

DUE TO BELOW NORMAL SNOW COVER AND RIVER ICE...POTENTIAL FOR
SNOWMELT AND ICE JAM FLOODING IS LOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

ALTHOUGH WATER SUPPLY LEVELS ARE NOT A CONCERN AT THE MOMENT...THERE
IS CURRENTLY VERY LITTLE SNOW WATER AVAILABLE FOR RESERVOIR RECHARGE
ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. IT WILL TAKE A STEADY SUPPLY OF RAIN AND
SNOW THROUGH SPRING INTO SUMMER FOR RESERVOIRS TO MAINTAIN ADEQUATE
LEVELS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...LFM
HYDROLOGY...NAS




000
FXUS61 KALY 061834
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
134 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER INTO SUNDAY. MEANWHILE A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK. SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MIDWEEK A LARGE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SETTLE INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL SET UP THE REGION FOR A PERIOD OF
TYPICAL FEBRUARY WEATHER...CLOUDY...COLD WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT
SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR SEVERAL DAYS. TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS AT
THIS TIME SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FOR TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH FROM SOUTHERN
CANADA INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL MAINLY
RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS OVERNIGHT ACROSS FAR NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FA WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE FA WILL REMAIN
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 20S.

ON SUNDAY THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND KEEPING THE COLDEST AIR LOCKED UP NORTH OF
THE BOUNDARY. THERE WILL BE INTERVALS OF CLOUDS AND SUN ON SUNDAY
ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S EXCEPT FOR SOME UPPER 20S ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A SERIES OF 500 HPA SHORT WVS CARVE A TROF AND THEN A CUTOFF OVER
THE GRTLKS RGN THROUGH THIS PERIOD. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM GENERALLY
FAIR CONDS WILL PREVAIL SUN NT. MON THE ONE STRONG S STREAM SHORT
WV EJECTS SOUTH OF THE RGN AS A CSTL STORM...BUT IT MAY INJECT
SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE E PRTNS OF FCA AS THE CUT OFF
APPROACHES.

OTHERWISE THE 500 HPA CUT OFF SUPPORTS A WEAKENING CLIPPER LOW
OVER THE GRT LKS RGN MON INTO MIDWEEK. THIS LEAVES THE RGN UNDER
A SPRAWLING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THROUGH OUT THE ATMOSPHERE. YET
ANOTHER COASTAL LOW IS SPAWNED BY THIS 500 HPA LOW...BUT ALL
DETERMINISTIC GUID KEEPS IT WEAK AND TO THE SOUTH OF FCA TUE.

SO WHILE THERE IS UNANIMOUS AGREEMENT AMONG THE ECMWF/GFS/NAM/GEM
DETERMINISTIC RUNS IN KEEPING THE SIGNIFICANT ACTION TO OUR
EAST...ITS JUST TO OUR EAST AS SVRL NOR EASTER TYPE STORMS PASS
JUST BEYOND THE RGN. ATTM THE GUID IS FCST MOSTLY FISH STORMS.

THEN THERE THE SREFS WITH QPF FM 0.10 TO A 1.3 LIQ EQUIV OUTLIER...GEFS
A TRACE TO 0.5 INCH LIQ EQ.

SO THE CONSENSUS SUPPORTS FCA IN TYPICAL FEB REGIME. COLD...AS
ALL PCPN WILL BE -SN OR -SNSH...CLOUDY BUT QPF CONSTRAINED BY
LIMITED TO AT MOST MODEST MOISTURE. SNSH/-SN WILL BE FOCUSED BY PASSING
SHORT WVS...A NW-SE ORIENTED TROF THAT SHIFTS NE ACROSS THE
RGN...AS WELL AS THESE SYSTEMS ABILITY TO TRIGGER A LK EFFECT
RESPONSE...AND SOME MOISTURE INJECTIONS FM COASTAL STORMS PASSING
JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THE NET QPF IN THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS OVER THE
WHOLE PERIOD ARE ON THE ORDER OF A QUARTER OF AN INCH QPF...PLUS
OR MINUS A TENTH WITH A BIT MORE OVER MTN RIDGES.

WHILE THE MODEL SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT ON THE GENERAL SCENARIO...ALL
KEEPING THE SIGNIFICANT STORMS AT BAY TO OUR SOUTH...THEY DO VARY
ON THE TIMING OF FORCING MECHANISMS. FCA REMAINS UNCOMFORTABLY
CLOSE TO SHARP GRADIENTS OF PCPN AS EVIDENCED BY THE PLUMES AND
PERCENTAGES IN THE ENSEMBLE WPC OUTPUT.

FOR NOW THE BLEND IS THE BEST APPROACH TO ADDRESSING THIS DEGREE
OF UNCERTAINTY. TEMPS WILL REMAIN COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...WITH NR
NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS STILL TRENDING ABV NORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MORE WINTER LIKE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE LONG TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST...WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING FROM NEAR
NORMAL ON TUESDAY TO BELOW NORMAL TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
THERE WILL BE MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS
DURING THE PERIOD AS WELL.

BY WEDNESDAY ANY POTENTIAL STORM SHOULD BE WELL OFFSHORE AND FAR
NORTH AND EAST OF OUR REGION. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVING
THROUGH ALONG WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT LOOKS POISED TO CROSS OUR
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT...WHILE THE
MAIN STORY WILL BE MUCH COLDER ARCTIC AIR SURGING SOUTHWARD INTO THE
REGION.

A SMALL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MAY BRIEFLY BUILD IN THURSDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE THE NEXT POTENTIALLY STRONG ARCTIC FRONT COULD USHER
IN THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON THUS FAR STARTING LATE FRIDAY. WE
ARE STILL ABOUT A WEEK AWAY FROM THIS...BUT WILL NOTE THE GFS/ECMWF
HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH SHOWING SUB-500 DECAMETER THICKNESS
VALUES OVER THE REGION BY THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD FOR
ALL TAF SITES. THROUGH 21Z SATURDAY AT KGFL...SOME VCSH
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AS WEAKENING SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES
MOVE EAST BUT ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE NO CHANGE IN ANY FLIGHT
CATEGORIES. CLOUD COVERAGE WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE AFTER 00Z SUNDAY
AND BY 12Z SUNDAY...ONLY A FEW MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE REGION.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS WE GO PAST 00Z SUNDAY AND
INCREASE TO 5-10 KNOTS AFTER 12Z SUNDAY OUT OF THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO CONCERNS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS AS ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT OR IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

THE THIRD WINTER SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE SEASON WAS ISSUED
ON FEBRUARY 4TH.

HIGHLIGHTS...REFER TO THE PRODUCTS FOR DETAILS (ALBESFALY):

DUE TO BELOW NORMAL SNOW COVER AND RIVER ICE...POTENTIAL FOR
SNOWMELT AND ICE JAM FLOODING IS LOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

ALTHOUGH WATER SUPPLY LEVELS ARE NOT A CONCERN AT THE MOMENT...THERE
IS CURRENTLY VERY LITTLE SNOW WATER AVAILABLE FOR RESERVOIR RECHARGE
ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. IT WILL TAKE A STEADY SUPPLY OF RAIN AND
SNOW THROUGH SPRING INTO SUMMER FOR RESERVOIRS TO MAINTAIN ADEQUATE
LEVELS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...LFM
HYDROLOGY...NAS




000
FXUS61 KALY 061834
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
134 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER INTO SUNDAY. MEANWHILE A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK. SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MIDWEEK A LARGE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SETTLE INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL SET UP THE REGION FOR A PERIOD OF
TYPICAL FEBRUARY WEATHER...CLOUDY...COLD WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT
SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR SEVERAL DAYS. TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS AT
THIS TIME SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FOR TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH FROM SOUTHERN
CANADA INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL MAINLY
RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS OVERNIGHT ACROSS FAR NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FA WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE FA WILL REMAIN
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 20S.

ON SUNDAY THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND KEEPING THE COLDEST AIR LOCKED UP NORTH OF
THE BOUNDARY. THERE WILL BE INTERVALS OF CLOUDS AND SUN ON SUNDAY
ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S EXCEPT FOR SOME UPPER 20S ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A SERIES OF 500 HPA SHORT WVS CARVE A TROF AND THEN A CUTOFF OVER
THE GRTLKS RGN THROUGH THIS PERIOD. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM GENERALLY
FAIR CONDS WILL PREVAIL SUN NT. MON THE ONE STRONG S STREAM SHORT
WV EJECTS SOUTH OF THE RGN AS A CSTL STORM...BUT IT MAY INJECT
SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE E PRTNS OF FCA AS THE CUT OFF
APPROACHES.

OTHERWISE THE 500 HPA CUT OFF SUPPORTS A WEAKENING CLIPPER LOW
OVER THE GRT LKS RGN MON INTO MIDWEEK. THIS LEAVES THE RGN UNDER
A SPRAWLING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THROUGH OUT THE ATMOSPHERE. YET
ANOTHER COASTAL LOW IS SPAWNED BY THIS 500 HPA LOW...BUT ALL
DETERMINISTIC GUID KEEPS IT WEAK AND TO THE SOUTH OF FCA TUE.

SO WHILE THERE IS UNANIMOUS AGREEMENT AMONG THE ECMWF/GFS/NAM/GEM
DETERMINISTIC RUNS IN KEEPING THE SIGNIFICANT ACTION TO OUR
EAST...ITS JUST TO OUR EAST AS SVRL NOR EASTER TYPE STORMS PASS
JUST BEYOND THE RGN. ATTM THE GUID IS FCST MOSTLY FISH STORMS.

THEN THERE THE SREFS WITH QPF FM 0.10 TO A 1.3 LIQ EQUIV OUTLIER...GEFS
A TRACE TO 0.5 INCH LIQ EQ.

SO THE CONSENSUS SUPPORTS FCA IN TYPICAL FEB REGIME. COLD...AS
ALL PCPN WILL BE -SN OR -SNSH...CLOUDY BUT QPF CONSTRAINED BY
LIMITED TO AT MOST MODEST MOISTURE. SNSH/-SN WILL BE FOCUSED BY PASSING
SHORT WVS...A NW-SE ORIENTED TROF THAT SHIFTS NE ACROSS THE
RGN...AS WELL AS THESE SYSTEMS ABILITY TO TRIGGER A LK EFFECT
RESPONSE...AND SOME MOISTURE INJECTIONS FM COASTAL STORMS PASSING
JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THE NET QPF IN THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS OVER THE
WHOLE PERIOD ARE ON THE ORDER OF A QUARTER OF AN INCH QPF...PLUS
OR MINUS A TENTH WITH A BIT MORE OVER MTN RIDGES.

WHILE THE MODEL SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT ON THE GENERAL SCENARIO...ALL
KEEPING THE SIGNIFICANT STORMS AT BAY TO OUR SOUTH...THEY DO VARY
ON THE TIMING OF FORCING MECHANISMS. FCA REMAINS UNCOMFORTABLY
CLOSE TO SHARP GRADIENTS OF PCPN AS EVIDENCED BY THE PLUMES AND
PERCENTAGES IN THE ENSEMBLE WPC OUTPUT.

FOR NOW THE BLEND IS THE BEST APPROACH TO ADDRESSING THIS DEGREE
OF UNCERTAINTY. TEMPS WILL REMAIN COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...WITH NR
NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS STILL TRENDING ABV NORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MORE WINTER LIKE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE LONG TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST...WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING FROM NEAR
NORMAL ON TUESDAY TO BELOW NORMAL TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
THERE WILL BE MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS
DURING THE PERIOD AS WELL.

BY WEDNESDAY ANY POTENTIAL STORM SHOULD BE WELL OFFSHORE AND FAR
NORTH AND EAST OF OUR REGION. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVING
THROUGH ALONG WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT LOOKS POISED TO CROSS OUR
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT...WHILE THE
MAIN STORY WILL BE MUCH COLDER ARCTIC AIR SURGING SOUTHWARD INTO THE
REGION.

A SMALL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MAY BRIEFLY BUILD IN THURSDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE THE NEXT POTENTIALLY STRONG ARCTIC FRONT COULD USHER
IN THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON THUS FAR STARTING LATE FRIDAY. WE
ARE STILL ABOUT A WEEK AWAY FROM THIS...BUT WILL NOTE THE GFS/ECMWF
HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH SHOWING SUB-500 DECAMETER THICKNESS
VALUES OVER THE REGION BY THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD FOR
ALL TAF SITES. THROUGH 21Z SATURDAY AT KGFL...SOME VCSH
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AS WEAKENING SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES
MOVE EAST BUT ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE NO CHANGE IN ANY FLIGHT
CATEGORIES. CLOUD COVERAGE WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE AFTER 00Z SUNDAY
AND BY 12Z SUNDAY...ONLY A FEW MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE REGION.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS WE GO PAST 00Z SUNDAY AND
INCREASE TO 5-10 KNOTS AFTER 12Z SUNDAY OUT OF THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO CONCERNS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS AS ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT OR IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

THE THIRD WINTER SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE SEASON WAS ISSUED
ON FEBRUARY 4TH.

HIGHLIGHTS...REFER TO THE PRODUCTS FOR DETAILS (ALBESFALY):

DUE TO BELOW NORMAL SNOW COVER AND RIVER ICE...POTENTIAL FOR
SNOWMELT AND ICE JAM FLOODING IS LOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

ALTHOUGH WATER SUPPLY LEVELS ARE NOT A CONCERN AT THE MOMENT...THERE
IS CURRENTLY VERY LITTLE SNOW WATER AVAILABLE FOR RESERVOIR RECHARGE
ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. IT WILL TAKE A STEADY SUPPLY OF RAIN AND
SNOW THROUGH SPRING INTO SUMMER FOR RESERVOIRS TO MAINTAIN ADEQUATE
LEVELS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...LFM
HYDROLOGY...NAS



000
FXUS61 KALY 061834
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
134 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER INTO SUNDAY. MEANWHILE A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK. SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MIDWEEK A LARGE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SETTLE INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL SET UP THE REGION FOR A PERIOD OF
TYPICAL FEBRUARY WEATHER...CLOUDY...COLD WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT
SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR SEVERAL DAYS. TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS AT
THIS TIME SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FOR TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH FROM SOUTHERN
CANADA INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL MAINLY
RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS OVERNIGHT ACROSS FAR NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FA WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE FA WILL REMAIN
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 20S.

ON SUNDAY THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND KEEPING THE COLDEST AIR LOCKED UP NORTH OF
THE BOUNDARY. THERE WILL BE INTERVALS OF CLOUDS AND SUN ON SUNDAY
ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S EXCEPT FOR SOME UPPER 20S ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A SERIES OF 500 HPA SHORT WVS CARVE A TROF AND THEN A CUTOFF OVER
THE GRTLKS RGN THROUGH THIS PERIOD. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM GENERALLY
FAIR CONDS WILL PREVAIL SUN NT. MON THE ONE STRONG S STREAM SHORT
WV EJECTS SOUTH OF THE RGN AS A CSTL STORM...BUT IT MAY INJECT
SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE E PRTNS OF FCA AS THE CUT OFF
APPROACHES.

OTHERWISE THE 500 HPA CUT OFF SUPPORTS A WEAKENING CLIPPER LOW
OVER THE GRT LKS RGN MON INTO MIDWEEK. THIS LEAVES THE RGN UNDER
A SPRAWLING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THROUGH OUT THE ATMOSPHERE. YET
ANOTHER COASTAL LOW IS SPAWNED BY THIS 500 HPA LOW...BUT ALL
DETERMINISTIC GUID KEEPS IT WEAK AND TO THE SOUTH OF FCA TUE.

SO WHILE THERE IS UNANIMOUS AGREEMENT AMONG THE ECMWF/GFS/NAM/GEM
DETERMINISTIC RUNS IN KEEPING THE SIGNIFICANT ACTION TO OUR
EAST...ITS JUST TO OUR EAST AS SVRL NOR EASTER TYPE STORMS PASS
JUST BEYOND THE RGN. ATTM THE GUID IS FCST MOSTLY FISH STORMS.

THEN THERE THE SREFS WITH QPF FM 0.10 TO A 1.3 LIQ EQUIV OUTLIER...GEFS
A TRACE TO 0.5 INCH LIQ EQ.

SO THE CONSENSUS SUPPORTS FCA IN TYPICAL FEB REGIME. COLD...AS
ALL PCPN WILL BE -SN OR -SNSH...CLOUDY BUT QPF CONSTRAINED BY
LIMITED TO AT MOST MODEST MOISTURE. SNSH/-SN WILL BE FOCUSED BY PASSING
SHORT WVS...A NW-SE ORIENTED TROF THAT SHIFTS NE ACROSS THE
RGN...AS WELL AS THESE SYSTEMS ABILITY TO TRIGGER A LK EFFECT
RESPONSE...AND SOME MOISTURE INJECTIONS FM COASTAL STORMS PASSING
JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THE NET QPF IN THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS OVER THE
WHOLE PERIOD ARE ON THE ORDER OF A QUARTER OF AN INCH QPF...PLUS
OR MINUS A TENTH WITH A BIT MORE OVER MTN RIDGES.

WHILE THE MODEL SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT ON THE GENERAL SCENARIO...ALL
KEEPING THE SIGNIFICANT STORMS AT BAY TO OUR SOUTH...THEY DO VARY
ON THE TIMING OF FORCING MECHANISMS. FCA REMAINS UNCOMFORTABLY
CLOSE TO SHARP GRADIENTS OF PCPN AS EVIDENCED BY THE PLUMES AND
PERCENTAGES IN THE ENSEMBLE WPC OUTPUT.

FOR NOW THE BLEND IS THE BEST APPROACH TO ADDRESSING THIS DEGREE
OF UNCERTAINTY. TEMPS WILL REMAIN COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...WITH NR
NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS STILL TRENDING ABV NORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MORE WINTER LIKE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE LONG TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST...WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING FROM NEAR
NORMAL ON TUESDAY TO BELOW NORMAL TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
THERE WILL BE MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS
DURING THE PERIOD AS WELL.

BY WEDNESDAY ANY POTENTIAL STORM SHOULD BE WELL OFFSHORE AND FAR
NORTH AND EAST OF OUR REGION. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVING
THROUGH ALONG WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT LOOKS POISED TO CROSS OUR
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT...WHILE THE
MAIN STORY WILL BE MUCH COLDER ARCTIC AIR SURGING SOUTHWARD INTO THE
REGION.

A SMALL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MAY BRIEFLY BUILD IN THURSDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE THE NEXT POTENTIALLY STRONG ARCTIC FRONT COULD USHER
IN THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON THUS FAR STARTING LATE FRIDAY. WE
ARE STILL ABOUT A WEEK AWAY FROM THIS...BUT WILL NOTE THE GFS/ECMWF
HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH SHOWING SUB-500 DECAMETER THICKNESS
VALUES OVER THE REGION BY THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD FOR
ALL TAF SITES. THROUGH 21Z SATURDAY AT KGFL...SOME VCSH
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AS WEAKENING SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES
MOVE EAST BUT ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE NO CHANGE IN ANY FLIGHT
CATEGORIES. CLOUD COVERAGE WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE AFTER 00Z SUNDAY
AND BY 12Z SUNDAY...ONLY A FEW MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE REGION.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS WE GO PAST 00Z SUNDAY AND
INCREASE TO 5-10 KNOTS AFTER 12Z SUNDAY OUT OF THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO CONCERNS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS AS ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT OR IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

THE THIRD WINTER SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE SEASON WAS ISSUED
ON FEBRUARY 4TH.

HIGHLIGHTS...REFER TO THE PRODUCTS FOR DETAILS (ALBESFALY):

DUE TO BELOW NORMAL SNOW COVER AND RIVER ICE...POTENTIAL FOR
SNOWMELT AND ICE JAM FLOODING IS LOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

ALTHOUGH WATER SUPPLY LEVELS ARE NOT A CONCERN AT THE MOMENT...THERE
IS CURRENTLY VERY LITTLE SNOW WATER AVAILABLE FOR RESERVOIR RECHARGE
ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. IT WILL TAKE A STEADY SUPPLY OF RAIN AND
SNOW THROUGH SPRING INTO SUMMER FOR RESERVOIRS TO MAINTAIN ADEQUATE
LEVELS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...LFM
HYDROLOGY...NAS




000
FXUS61 KALY 061825
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
125 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER INTO SUNDAY. MEANWHILE A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK. SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MIDWEEK A LARGE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SETTLE INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL SET UP THE REGION FOR A PERIOD OF
TYPICAL FEBRUARY WEATHER...CLOUDY...COLD WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT
SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR SEVERAL DAYS. TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS AT
THIS TIME SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1215 PM EST...SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WERE
OCCURRING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK VALLEY AND LAKE
GEORGE SARATOGA REGION. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WAS ON THE
LIGHT SIDE AND WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THIS AREA INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
HAVE INCREASED THE POPS ACROSS THIS AREA AS WELL AS FOR THE
SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS WHERE SOME UPSLOPE MAY OCCUR. ANY
ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE A DUSTING TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH. THE SNOW
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON
AS LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY. SOME MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE SPREADING INTO THE REGION AND WE SHOULD SEE
FILTERED SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS. EVEN WITH
THE FILTERED SUN...TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB TO HIGHS IN THE MID
30S TO LOWER 40S.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL BE IN CONTROL TONIGHT BUT A COLD
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM CANADA BY DAYBREAK AND THROUGH
THE DAY SUNDAY AS UPPER ENERGY TRACKS EAST THROUGH SE CANADA. MORE
INTERVALS OF HIGH CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS.
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A LITTLE AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT BUT VERY LIGHT WINDS SUNDAY COULD LIMIT MIXING. HIGHS
SUNDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S...SOME 30S IN NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A SERIES OF 500 HPA SHORT WVS CARVE A TROF AND THEN A CUTOFF OVER
THE GRTLKS RGN THROUGH THIS PERIOD. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM GENERALLY
FAIR CONDS WILL PREVAIL SUN NT. MON THE ONE STRONG S STREAM SHORT
WV EJECTS SOUTH OF THE RGN AS A CSTL STORM...BUT IT MAY INJECT
SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE E PRTNS OF FCA AS THE CUT OFF
APPROACHES.

OTHERWISE THE 500 HPA CUT OFF SUPPORTS A WEAKENING CLIPPER LOW
OVER THE GRT LKS RGN MON INTO MIDWEEK. THIS LEAVES THE RGN UNDER
A SPRAWLING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THROUGH OUT THE ATMOSPHERE. YET
ANOTHER COASTAL LOW IS SPAWNED BY THIS 500 HPA LOW...BUT ALL
DETERMINISTIC GUID KEEPS IT WEAK AND TO THE SOUTH OF FCA TUE.

SO WHILE THERE IS UNANIMOUS AGREEMENT AMONG THE ECMWF/GFS/NAM/GEM
DETERMINISTIC RUNS IN KEEPING THE SIGNIFICANT ACTION TO OUR
EAST...ITS JUST TO OUR EAST AS SVRL NOR EASTER TYPE STORMS PASS
JUST BEYOND THE RGN. ATTM THE GUID IS FCST MOSTLY FISH STORMS.

THEN THERE THE SREFS WITH QPF FM 0.10 TO A 1.3 LIQ EQUIV OUTLIER...GEFS
A TRACE TO 0.5 INCH LIQ EQ.

SO THE CONSENSUS SUPPORTS FCA IN TYPICAL FEB REGIME. COLD...AS
ALL PCPN WILL BE -SN OR -SNSH...CLOUDY BUT QPF CONSTRAINED BY
LIMITED TO AT MOST MODEST MOISTURE. SNSH/-SN WILL BE FOCUSED BY PASSING
SHORT WVS...A NW-SE ORIENTED TROF THAT SHIFTS NE ACROSS THE
RGN...AS WELL AS THESE SYSTEMS ABILITY TO TRIGGER A LK EFFECT
RESPONSE...AND SOME MOISTURE INJECTIONS FM COASTAL STORMS PASSING
JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THE NET QPF IN THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS OVER THE
WHOLE PERIOD ARE ON THE ORDER OF A QUARTER OF AN INCH QPF...PLUS
OR MINUS A TENTH WITH A BIT MORE OVER MTN RIDGES.

WHILE THE MODEL SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT ON THE GENERAL SCENARIO...ALL
KEEPING THE SIGNIFICANT STORMS AT BAY TO OUR SOUTH...THEY DO VARY
ON THE TIMING OF FORCING MECHANISMS. FCA REMAINS UNCOMFORTABLY
CLOSE TO SHARP GRADIENTS OF PCPN AS EVIDENCED BY THE PLUMES AND
PERCENTAGES IN THE ENSEMBLE WPC OUTPUT.

FOR NOW THE BLEND IS THE BEST APPROACH TO ADDRESSING THIS DEGREE
OF UNCERTAINTY. TEMPS WILL REMAIN COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...WITH NR
NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS STILL TRENDING ABV NORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MORE WINTER LIKE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE LONG TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST...WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING FROM NEAR
NORMAL ON TUESDAY TO BELOW NORMAL TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
THERE WILL BE MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS
DURING THE PERIOD AS WELL.

BY WEDNESDAY ANY POTENTIAL STORM SHOULD BE WELL OFFSHORE AND FAR
NORTH AND EAST OF OUR REGION. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVING
THROUGH ALONG WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT LOOKS POISED TO CROSS OUR
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT...WHILE THE
MAIN STORY WILL BE MUCH COLDER ARCTIC AIR SURGING SOUTHWARD INTO THE
REGION.

A SMALL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MAY BRIEFLY BUILD IN THURSDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE THE NEXT POTENTIALLY STRONG ARCTIC FRONT COULD USHER
IN THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON THUS FAR STARTING LATE FRIDAY. WE
ARE STILL ABOUT A WEEK AWAY FROM THIS...BUT WILL NOTE THE GFS/ECMWF
HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH SHOWING SUB-500 DECAMETER THICKNESS
VALUES OVER THE REGION BY THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD FOR
ALL TAF SITES. THROUGH 21Z SATURDAY AT KGFL...SOME VCSH
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AS WEAKENING SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES
MOVE EAST BUT ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE NO CHANGE IN ANY FLIGHT
CATEGORIES. CLOUD COVERAGE WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE AFTER 00Z SUNDAY
AND BY 12Z SUNDAY...ONLY A FEW MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE REGION.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS WE GO PAST 00Z SUNDAY AND
INCREASE TO 5-10 KNOTS AFTER 12Z SUNDAY OUT OF THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO CONCERNS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS AS ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT OR IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

THE THIRD WINTER SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE SEASON WAS ISSUED
ON FEBRUARY 4TH.

HIGHLIGHTS...REFER TO THE PRODUCTS FOR DETAILS (ALBESFALY):

DUE TO BELOW NORMAL SNOW COVER AND RIVER ICE...POTENTIAL FOR
SNOWMELT AND ICE JAM FLOODING IS LOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

ALTHOUGH WATER SUPPLY LEVELS ARE NOT A CONCERN AT THE MOMENT...THERE
IS CURRENTLY VERY LITTLE SNOW WATER AVAILABLE FOR RESERVOIR RECHARGE
ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. IT WILL TAKE A STEADY SUPPLY OF RAIN AND
SNOW THROUGH SPRING INTO SUMMER FOR RESERVOIRS TO MAINTAIN ADEQUATE
LEVELS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...11/NAS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...LFM
HYDROLOGY...NAS




000
FXUS61 KBOX 061759
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1259 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY WEATHER THIS WEEKEND WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY. TWO DEVELOPING COASTAL STORMS MAY BRING
ACCUMULATING SNOW MONDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN MA...THEN TUE
AND WED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
BRINGS MUCH CHILLIER AIR FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

1 PM UPDATE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. TEMPS CLIMBING JUST ABOVE
FREEZING IN MANY LOCATIONS AS OF 1230 PM. SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS
ALSO CONTRIBUTING TO PLEASANT CONDITIONS BY EARLY FEB STANDARDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO SET UP OVER THE REGION
TODAY. A PASSING HIGH TO OUR SOUTH WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE REGION FOR THIS AFTERNOON. ANTICIPATE GUSTS BETWEEN 15-20
MPH. WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL WILL ALSO BRING SOME MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA RESULTING IN A FILTERED SUNSHINE. GUIDANCE DOES
INDICATE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S BUT WITH THE FRESH
SNOW PACK THAT MAY BE A BIT TO OPTIMISTIC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINLY DOMINATE RESULTING IN QUIET WEATHER.
HOWEVER PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE SLOW TO RELAX WHICH WILL LIMIT
RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT. TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE 20S WITH
PERHAPS LOW READINGS IN AREAS WHERE THE WIND WILL BE CALM.

SUNDAY...

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH WILL DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION ON SUNDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BE DRY BUT MAY BRING IN SOME
CLOUDS. WESTERLY FLOW WILL DOMINATE IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM IN TO THE 40S. HELP AID IN MELTING
SOME OF THE SNOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...

LONGWAVE PATTERN SHOWS RIDGE WEST/TROUGH EAST AS BEFORE...WITH
INCREASING AMPLITUDE EARLY WEEK AND DECREASING AMPLITUDE LATE WEEK.
OVERALL A COLD AND UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  AT
SHORTER WAVE SCALES WE SEE THREE SHORTWAVES AFFECTING THE PATTERN.
THE FIRST IS IN THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY AND GENERATES COASTAL
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINAS SUNDAY. THIS SWINGS WIDE OF OUR
AREA...CROSSING ABOUT 4 DEGREES SOUTH OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK...AND
THEN SWEEPS NORTHEAST JUST SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA. THE SECOND
SHORTWAVE IS MOVING ASHORE IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND WILL CARVE A
DEEP COLD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN USA DURING THE EARLY WEEK.  THE
THIRD SHORTWAVE IS ALONG THE ARCTIC OCEAN COASTLINE AND WILL DROP
SOUTH INTO THE USA MIDWEEK.

OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE MASS FIELDS ARE SIMILAR ON THE BROAD SCALE MOST
OF THE PERIOD. BUT THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS...ESPECIALLY
REGARDING THE SECOND SHORTWAVE AND ITS DEVELOPING COASTAL SYSTEM
TUESDAY. THIS SECOND SHORTWAVE WAS JUST COMING ASHORE AT MEASUREMENT
TIME LAST NIGHT. THE 12Z SATURDAY MODELS SHOULD HAVE A BETTER READ
ON THE SHORTWAVE AND ITS EFFECTS. WE CONTINUE TO FAVOR A MODEL BLEND
ESPECIALLY USING THE GFS AND ECMWF.

THE DAILIES...

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY... COASTAL STORM PASSES WELL OFFSHORE...SOME 4
DEGREES SOUTH OF THE BENCHMARK. NORMALLY THAT WOULD MEAN A SWING AND
A MISS FOR STRIKE THREE. BUT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM QUEBEC
AND ESTABLISHES A PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT SHOULD BRING A NORTHEAST
MARINE FLOW WITH DELTA OF 13-15C. THIS SHOULD AT LEAST BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY. LESS CONFIDENCE ON PCPN
GIVEN MEDIOCRE FORCING AND CHANGING RUN-TO-RUN AMOUNTS.

MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON QPF DURING MONDAY WITH MAIN FOCUS ON CAPE
AND ISLANDS...POSSIBLY EASTERN MASS. WE HAVE BACKED OFF ONSET OF
POPS UNTIL 06-12Z MONDAY AND VALUE OF POPS BY ABOUT 20 PERCENT. THIS
STILL BRINGS POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES IN EASTERN MASS WITH
HIGHEST AMOUNTS CAPE COD/PLYMOUTH CO AREA.

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY... SECOND SHORTWAVE DIGS OVER THE MIDWEST WITH
SURFACE LOW REDEVELOPMENT ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS NEW
COASTAL LOW THEN MOVES PAST NEW ENGLAND. BETTER DYNAMICS AND
RESULTING LIFT SHOULD BE IN PLACE AND WITH DEEPER MOISTURE WOULD
EXPECT THIS TO BE A BETTER CHANCE OF PCPN THAN THE MONDAY OFFSHORE
SYSTEM. BUT THE RESPONSIBLE SHORTWAVE IS JUST NOW MOVING ASHORE AS
NOTED ABOVE. SO STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND ITS
POTENTIAL. WE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... UPPER TROUGH WITH ITS COLD POOL ALOFT
AND CLOUD SHIELD LINGER WEDNESDAY. THE ARCTIC SHORTWAVE THEN SWINGS
THROUGH ON THURSDAY. EXPECT QUITE A FEW CLOUDS DURING THIS PERIOD
WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. CLIPPER LOW THEN DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM
NORTHERN ONTARIO FRIDAY AND BRINGING MORE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS. MIXED LAYER REACHES EITHER SIDE OF 925 MB EACH DAY...A
LITTLE HIGHER THURSDAY BEHIND THE ARCTIC SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE
FRONT. TEMPS ALOFT AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER SUPPORT 30S
WEDNESDAY...20S WEST/32 EAST THURSDAY...AND 20S TO NEAR 30 FRIDAY.
AS NOTED EARLIER...COLD AND UNSETTLED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

1 PM UPDATE ...

THRU TONIGHT ... HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR VFR/DRY AND LIGHT
SW WIND. WINDS MAY GUSTS UP TO 15-20 KT CAPE COD AND ISLANDS THIS
EVENING.

SUNDAY ... HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
BECOMING NE TOWARD SUNSET.

SUNDAY NIGHT ... VFR AND DRY THRU ABOUT MIDNIGHT. THEN LOWERING TO
MVFR WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SNOW OR MIX RAIN/SNOW TOWARD
DAYBREAK MON. NE WINDS GUSTING UP TO 35 KT CAPE COD AND ISLANDS
TOWARD 12Z MON.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE THRU SUN EVENING THEN LOWERING
LATE SUN NIGHT REGARDING ARRIVAL OF LOWER CIGS/VSBYS IN SNOW/RAIN.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS.

OUTLOOK /MON THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

TWO POTENTIAL STORMS DURING THIS PERIOD...EITHER COULD BRING
IFR/LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN SNOW. THE FIRST CHANCE FOR THIS WILL BE
MONDAY...WITH BEST CHANCE ON CAPE COD AND ISLANDS. NORTH-NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL GUST TO 35 KNOTS ALONG THE EASTERN MASS COAST. THE SECOND
CHANCE WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH ALL OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND UNDER THE GUN. CONDITIONS IMPROVE WEDNESDAY TO MVFR CIGS
WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

1 PM UPDATE ... NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. CHOP
SEAS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS WSW WINDS OPPOSE EASTERLY SWELLS
ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS OF RI AND MA. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

======================================================================

LINGERING SWELLS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TODAY. SCA LINGERS FOR
A PORTION OF THE DAY...BUT MAY BE ABLE TO BE DROPPED SOONER.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AN
INCREASE IN THE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD IN
RESPONSE. SCA MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW FOR BUILDING
SEAS IN RESPONSE TO GUSTY WINDS.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...A DEVELOPING GALE CENTER WILL PASS WELL
OFFSHORE SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET...BUT STRONG WINDS WILL EXTEND AN
UNUSUAL DISTANCE OUT FROM THE WEATHER SYSTEM. NORTHEAST WINDS OVER
THE WATERS WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE. THIS WILL BUILD SEAS OF 7 TO
11 FEET ON THE EXPOSED WATERS. A GALE WARNING WILL EVENTUALLY BE
NEEDED FOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ALSO EXPECT REDUCED VSBYS
IN RAIN AND SNOW.

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...A SECOND WEATHER SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND MOVE OUTSIDE NANTUCKET. THIS WILL BRING
ANOTHER PERIOD OF NORTHEAST WINDS WITH GUSTS OVER 25 KNOTS. THERE
REMAIN MANY QUESTIONS ABOUT THIS NEXT SYSTEM...AS WELL AS LOW
POTENTIAL FOR WINDS REACHING 35 KNOTS. SEAS WILL REMAIN AT 7 TO 11
FEET.

WEDNESDAY... WINDS DIMINISH AS THE SECOND COASTAL STORM MOVES OFF.
WIND SPEEDS SHOULD GO BELOW 25 KNOTS. ROUGH SEAS WILL LINGER MUCH OF
THE DAY ESPECIALLY ON THE SOUTHERN EXPOSED WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
MONDAY...

THERE IS A FAIRLY HIGH ASTRO TIDE OF 11.2 IN BOSTON LATE MONDAY
MORNING.  NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS FROM LARGE
CIRCULATION OF THE INTENSIFYING OCEAN STORM WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A
1 TO 1.5 SURGE.  SEAS SHOULD BE BUILT UP TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 FEET
BY THEN...SO FEEL THERE IS A DECENT SHOT FOR POCKETS OF MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING ALONG EASTERN MA COAST.  THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR
POCKETS OF MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING...IF THE STORMS ENDS UP A BIT
FASTER AND TRACKING FURTHER WEST THAN CURRENT GUIDANCE INDICATES.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...

MAIN CONCERN IS IF WE END UP WITH A SECOND AREA OF STRONG LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING UP THE COAST...WHICH COULD IMPACT ADDITIONAL HIGH
TIDE CYCLES. LARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE ON WHETHER OR NOT THIS
HAPPENS.  IF SO...WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE TUESDAY NOON HIGH TIDE
CYCLE ACROSS EASTERN MA AS BOSTON HAS AN 11.5 ASTRO TIDE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ254-
     255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/NOCERA
MARINE...WTB/NOCERA/DUNTEN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 061759
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1259 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY WEATHER THIS WEEKEND WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY. TWO DEVELOPING COASTAL STORMS MAY BRING
ACCUMULATING SNOW MONDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN MA...THEN TUE
AND WED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
BRINGS MUCH CHILLIER AIR FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

1 PM UPDATE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. TEMPS CLIMBING JUST ABOVE
FREEZING IN MANY LOCATIONS AS OF 1230 PM. SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS
ALSO CONTRIBUTING TO PLEASANT CONDITIONS BY EARLY FEB STANDARDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO SET UP OVER THE REGION
TODAY. A PASSING HIGH TO OUR SOUTH WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE REGION FOR THIS AFTERNOON. ANTICIPATE GUSTS BETWEEN 15-20
MPH. WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL WILL ALSO BRING SOME MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA RESULTING IN A FILTERED SUNSHINE. GUIDANCE DOES
INDICATE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S BUT WITH THE FRESH
SNOW PACK THAT MAY BE A BIT TO OPTIMISTIC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINLY DOMINATE RESULTING IN QUIET WEATHER.
HOWEVER PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE SLOW TO RELAX WHICH WILL LIMIT
RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT. TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE 20S WITH
PERHAPS LOW READINGS IN AREAS WHERE THE WIND WILL BE CALM.

SUNDAY...

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH WILL DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION ON SUNDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BE DRY BUT MAY BRING IN SOME
CLOUDS. WESTERLY FLOW WILL DOMINATE IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM IN TO THE 40S. HELP AID IN MELTING
SOME OF THE SNOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...

LONGWAVE PATTERN SHOWS RIDGE WEST/TROUGH EAST AS BEFORE...WITH
INCREASING AMPLITUDE EARLY WEEK AND DECREASING AMPLITUDE LATE WEEK.
OVERALL A COLD AND UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  AT
SHORTER WAVE SCALES WE SEE THREE SHORTWAVES AFFECTING THE PATTERN.
THE FIRST IS IN THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY AND GENERATES COASTAL
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINAS SUNDAY. THIS SWINGS WIDE OF OUR
AREA...CROSSING ABOUT 4 DEGREES SOUTH OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK...AND
THEN SWEEPS NORTHEAST JUST SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA. THE SECOND
SHORTWAVE IS MOVING ASHORE IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND WILL CARVE A
DEEP COLD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN USA DURING THE EARLY WEEK.  THE
THIRD SHORTWAVE IS ALONG THE ARCTIC OCEAN COASTLINE AND WILL DROP
SOUTH INTO THE USA MIDWEEK.

OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE MASS FIELDS ARE SIMILAR ON THE BROAD SCALE MOST
OF THE PERIOD. BUT THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS...ESPECIALLY
REGARDING THE SECOND SHORTWAVE AND ITS DEVELOPING COASTAL SYSTEM
TUESDAY. THIS SECOND SHORTWAVE WAS JUST COMING ASHORE AT MEASUREMENT
TIME LAST NIGHT. THE 12Z SATURDAY MODELS SHOULD HAVE A BETTER READ
ON THE SHORTWAVE AND ITS EFFECTS. WE CONTINUE TO FAVOR A MODEL BLEND
ESPECIALLY USING THE GFS AND ECMWF.

THE DAILIES...

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY... COASTAL STORM PASSES WELL OFFSHORE...SOME 4
DEGREES SOUTH OF THE BENCHMARK. NORMALLY THAT WOULD MEAN A SWING AND
A MISS FOR STRIKE THREE. BUT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM QUEBEC
AND ESTABLISHES A PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT SHOULD BRING A NORTHEAST
MARINE FLOW WITH DELTA OF 13-15C. THIS SHOULD AT LEAST BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY. LESS CONFIDENCE ON PCPN
GIVEN MEDIOCRE FORCING AND CHANGING RUN-TO-RUN AMOUNTS.

MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON QPF DURING MONDAY WITH MAIN FOCUS ON CAPE
AND ISLANDS...POSSIBLY EASTERN MASS. WE HAVE BACKED OFF ONSET OF
POPS UNTIL 06-12Z MONDAY AND VALUE OF POPS BY ABOUT 20 PERCENT. THIS
STILL BRINGS POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES IN EASTERN MASS WITH
HIGHEST AMOUNTS CAPE COD/PLYMOUTH CO AREA.

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY... SECOND SHORTWAVE DIGS OVER THE MIDWEST WITH
SURFACE LOW REDEVELOPMENT ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS NEW
COASTAL LOW THEN MOVES PAST NEW ENGLAND. BETTER DYNAMICS AND
RESULTING LIFT SHOULD BE IN PLACE AND WITH DEEPER MOISTURE WOULD
EXPECT THIS TO BE A BETTER CHANCE OF PCPN THAN THE MONDAY OFFSHORE
SYSTEM. BUT THE RESPONSIBLE SHORTWAVE IS JUST NOW MOVING ASHORE AS
NOTED ABOVE. SO STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND ITS
POTENTIAL. WE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... UPPER TROUGH WITH ITS COLD POOL ALOFT
AND CLOUD SHIELD LINGER WEDNESDAY. THE ARCTIC SHORTWAVE THEN SWINGS
THROUGH ON THURSDAY. EXPECT QUITE A FEW CLOUDS DURING THIS PERIOD
WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. CLIPPER LOW THEN DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM
NORTHERN ONTARIO FRIDAY AND BRINGING MORE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS. MIXED LAYER REACHES EITHER SIDE OF 925 MB EACH DAY...A
LITTLE HIGHER THURSDAY BEHIND THE ARCTIC SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE
FRONT. TEMPS ALOFT AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER SUPPORT 30S
WEDNESDAY...20S WEST/32 EAST THURSDAY...AND 20S TO NEAR 30 FRIDAY.
AS NOTED EARLIER...COLD AND UNSETTLED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

1 PM UPDATE ...

THRU TONIGHT ... HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR VFR/DRY AND LIGHT
SW WIND. WINDS MAY GUSTS UP TO 15-20 KT CAPE COD AND ISLANDS THIS
EVENING.

SUNDAY ... HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
BECOMING NE TOWARD SUNSET.

SUNDAY NIGHT ... VFR AND DRY THRU ABOUT MIDNIGHT. THEN LOWERING TO
MVFR WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SNOW OR MIX RAIN/SNOW TOWARD
DAYBREAK MON. NE WINDS GUSTING UP TO 35 KT CAPE COD AND ISLANDS
TOWARD 12Z MON.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE THRU SUN EVENING THEN LOWERING
LATE SUN NIGHT REGARDING ARRIVAL OF LOWER CIGS/VSBYS IN SNOW/RAIN.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS.

OUTLOOK /MON THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

TWO POTENTIAL STORMS DURING THIS PERIOD...EITHER COULD BRING
IFR/LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN SNOW. THE FIRST CHANCE FOR THIS WILL BE
MONDAY...WITH BEST CHANCE ON CAPE COD AND ISLANDS. NORTH-NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL GUST TO 35 KNOTS ALONG THE EASTERN MASS COAST. THE SECOND
CHANCE WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH ALL OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND UNDER THE GUN. CONDITIONS IMPROVE WEDNESDAY TO MVFR CIGS
WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

1 PM UPDATE ... NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. CHOP
SEAS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS WSW WINDS OPPOSE EASTERLY SWELLS
ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS OF RI AND MA. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

======================================================================

LINGERING SWELLS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TODAY. SCA LINGERS FOR
A PORTION OF THE DAY...BUT MAY BE ABLE TO BE DROPPED SOONER.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AN
INCREASE IN THE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD IN
RESPONSE. SCA MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW FOR BUILDING
SEAS IN RESPONSE TO GUSTY WINDS.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...A DEVELOPING GALE CENTER WILL PASS WELL
OFFSHORE SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET...BUT STRONG WINDS WILL EXTEND AN
UNUSUAL DISTANCE OUT FROM THE WEATHER SYSTEM. NORTHEAST WINDS OVER
THE WATERS WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE. THIS WILL BUILD SEAS OF 7 TO
11 FEET ON THE EXPOSED WATERS. A GALE WARNING WILL EVENTUALLY BE
NEEDED FOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ALSO EXPECT REDUCED VSBYS
IN RAIN AND SNOW.

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...A SECOND WEATHER SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND MOVE OUTSIDE NANTUCKET. THIS WILL BRING
ANOTHER PERIOD OF NORTHEAST WINDS WITH GUSTS OVER 25 KNOTS. THERE
REMAIN MANY QUESTIONS ABOUT THIS NEXT SYSTEM...AS WELL AS LOW
POTENTIAL FOR WINDS REACHING 35 KNOTS. SEAS WILL REMAIN AT 7 TO 11
FEET.

WEDNESDAY... WINDS DIMINISH AS THE SECOND COASTAL STORM MOVES OFF.
WIND SPEEDS SHOULD GO BELOW 25 KNOTS. ROUGH SEAS WILL LINGER MUCH OF
THE DAY ESPECIALLY ON THE SOUTHERN EXPOSED WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
MONDAY...

THERE IS A FAIRLY HIGH ASTRO TIDE OF 11.2 IN BOSTON LATE MONDAY
MORNING.  NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS FROM LARGE
CIRCULATION OF THE INTENSIFYING OCEAN STORM WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A
1 TO 1.5 SURGE.  SEAS SHOULD BE BUILT UP TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 FEET
BY THEN...SO FEEL THERE IS A DECENT SHOT FOR POCKETS OF MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING ALONG EASTERN MA COAST.  THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR
POCKETS OF MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING...IF THE STORMS ENDS UP A BIT
FASTER AND TRACKING FURTHER WEST THAN CURRENT GUIDANCE INDICATES.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...

MAIN CONCERN IS IF WE END UP WITH A SECOND AREA OF STRONG LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING UP THE COAST...WHICH COULD IMPACT ADDITIONAL HIGH
TIDE CYCLES. LARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE ON WHETHER OR NOT THIS
HAPPENS.  IF SO...WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE TUESDAY NOON HIGH TIDE
CYCLE ACROSS EASTERN MA AS BOSTON HAS AN 11.5 ASTRO TIDE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ254-
     255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/NOCERA
MARINE...WTB/NOCERA/DUNTEN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KBOX 061759
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1259 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY WEATHER THIS WEEKEND WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY. TWO DEVELOPING COASTAL STORMS MAY BRING
ACCUMULATING SNOW MONDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN MA...THEN TUE
AND WED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
BRINGS MUCH CHILLIER AIR FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

1 PM UPDATE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. TEMPS CLIMBING JUST ABOVE
FREEZING IN MANY LOCATIONS AS OF 1230 PM. SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS
ALSO CONTRIBUTING TO PLEASANT CONDITIONS BY EARLY FEB STANDARDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO SET UP OVER THE REGION
TODAY. A PASSING HIGH TO OUR SOUTH WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE REGION FOR THIS AFTERNOON. ANTICIPATE GUSTS BETWEEN 15-20
MPH. WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL WILL ALSO BRING SOME MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA RESULTING IN A FILTERED SUNSHINE. GUIDANCE DOES
INDICATE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S BUT WITH THE FRESH
SNOW PACK THAT MAY BE A BIT TO OPTIMISTIC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINLY DOMINATE RESULTING IN QUIET WEATHER.
HOWEVER PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE SLOW TO RELAX WHICH WILL LIMIT
RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT. TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE 20S WITH
PERHAPS LOW READINGS IN AREAS WHERE THE WIND WILL BE CALM.

SUNDAY...

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH WILL DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION ON SUNDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BE DRY BUT MAY BRING IN SOME
CLOUDS. WESTERLY FLOW WILL DOMINATE IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM IN TO THE 40S. HELP AID IN MELTING
SOME OF THE SNOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...

LONGWAVE PATTERN SHOWS RIDGE WEST/TROUGH EAST AS BEFORE...WITH
INCREASING AMPLITUDE EARLY WEEK AND DECREASING AMPLITUDE LATE WEEK.
OVERALL A COLD AND UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  AT
SHORTER WAVE SCALES WE SEE THREE SHORTWAVES AFFECTING THE PATTERN.
THE FIRST IS IN THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY AND GENERATES COASTAL
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINAS SUNDAY. THIS SWINGS WIDE OF OUR
AREA...CROSSING ABOUT 4 DEGREES SOUTH OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK...AND
THEN SWEEPS NORTHEAST JUST SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA. THE SECOND
SHORTWAVE IS MOVING ASHORE IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND WILL CARVE A
DEEP COLD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN USA DURING THE EARLY WEEK.  THE
THIRD SHORTWAVE IS ALONG THE ARCTIC OCEAN COASTLINE AND WILL DROP
SOUTH INTO THE USA MIDWEEK.

OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE MASS FIELDS ARE SIMILAR ON THE BROAD SCALE MOST
OF THE PERIOD. BUT THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS...ESPECIALLY
REGARDING THE SECOND SHORTWAVE AND ITS DEVELOPING COASTAL SYSTEM
TUESDAY. THIS SECOND SHORTWAVE WAS JUST COMING ASHORE AT MEASUREMENT
TIME LAST NIGHT. THE 12Z SATURDAY MODELS SHOULD HAVE A BETTER READ
ON THE SHORTWAVE AND ITS EFFECTS. WE CONTINUE TO FAVOR A MODEL BLEND
ESPECIALLY USING THE GFS AND ECMWF.

THE DAILIES...

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY... COASTAL STORM PASSES WELL OFFSHORE...SOME 4
DEGREES SOUTH OF THE BENCHMARK. NORMALLY THAT WOULD MEAN A SWING AND
A MISS FOR STRIKE THREE. BUT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM QUEBEC
AND ESTABLISHES A PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT SHOULD BRING A NORTHEAST
MARINE FLOW WITH DELTA OF 13-15C. THIS SHOULD AT LEAST BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY. LESS CONFIDENCE ON PCPN
GIVEN MEDIOCRE FORCING AND CHANGING RUN-TO-RUN AMOUNTS.

MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON QPF DURING MONDAY WITH MAIN FOCUS ON CAPE
AND ISLANDS...POSSIBLY EASTERN MASS. WE HAVE BACKED OFF ONSET OF
POPS UNTIL 06-12Z MONDAY AND VALUE OF POPS BY ABOUT 20 PERCENT. THIS
STILL BRINGS POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES IN EASTERN MASS WITH
HIGHEST AMOUNTS CAPE COD/PLYMOUTH CO AREA.

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY... SECOND SHORTWAVE DIGS OVER THE MIDWEST WITH
SURFACE LOW REDEVELOPMENT ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS NEW
COASTAL LOW THEN MOVES PAST NEW ENGLAND. BETTER DYNAMICS AND
RESULTING LIFT SHOULD BE IN PLACE AND WITH DEEPER MOISTURE WOULD
EXPECT THIS TO BE A BETTER CHANCE OF PCPN THAN THE MONDAY OFFSHORE
SYSTEM. BUT THE RESPONSIBLE SHORTWAVE IS JUST NOW MOVING ASHORE AS
NOTED ABOVE. SO STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND ITS
POTENTIAL. WE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... UPPER TROUGH WITH ITS COLD POOL ALOFT
AND CLOUD SHIELD LINGER WEDNESDAY. THE ARCTIC SHORTWAVE THEN SWINGS
THROUGH ON THURSDAY. EXPECT QUITE A FEW CLOUDS DURING THIS PERIOD
WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. CLIPPER LOW THEN DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM
NORTHERN ONTARIO FRIDAY AND BRINGING MORE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS. MIXED LAYER REACHES EITHER SIDE OF 925 MB EACH DAY...A
LITTLE HIGHER THURSDAY BEHIND THE ARCTIC SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE
FRONT. TEMPS ALOFT AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER SUPPORT 30S
WEDNESDAY...20S WEST/32 EAST THURSDAY...AND 20S TO NEAR 30 FRIDAY.
AS NOTED EARLIER...COLD AND UNSETTLED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

1 PM UPDATE ...

THRU TONIGHT ... HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR VFR/DRY AND LIGHT
SW WIND. WINDS MAY GUSTS UP TO 15-20 KT CAPE COD AND ISLANDS THIS
EVENING.

SUNDAY ... HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
BECOMING NE TOWARD SUNSET.

SUNDAY NIGHT ... VFR AND DRY THRU ABOUT MIDNIGHT. THEN LOWERING TO
MVFR WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SNOW OR MIX RAIN/SNOW TOWARD
DAYBREAK MON. NE WINDS GUSTING UP TO 35 KT CAPE COD AND ISLANDS
TOWARD 12Z MON.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE THRU SUN EVENING THEN LOWERING
LATE SUN NIGHT REGARDING ARRIVAL OF LOWER CIGS/VSBYS IN SNOW/RAIN.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS.

OUTLOOK /MON THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

TWO POTENTIAL STORMS DURING THIS PERIOD...EITHER COULD BRING
IFR/LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN SNOW. THE FIRST CHANCE FOR THIS WILL BE
MONDAY...WITH BEST CHANCE ON CAPE COD AND ISLANDS. NORTH-NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL GUST TO 35 KNOTS ALONG THE EASTERN MASS COAST. THE SECOND
CHANCE WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH ALL OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND UNDER THE GUN. CONDITIONS IMPROVE WEDNESDAY TO MVFR CIGS
WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

1 PM UPDATE ... NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. CHOP
SEAS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS WSW WINDS OPPOSE EASTERLY SWELLS
ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS OF RI AND MA. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

======================================================================

LINGERING SWELLS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TODAY. SCA LINGERS FOR
A PORTION OF THE DAY...BUT MAY BE ABLE TO BE DROPPED SOONER.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AN
INCREASE IN THE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD IN
RESPONSE. SCA MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW FOR BUILDING
SEAS IN RESPONSE TO GUSTY WINDS.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...A DEVELOPING GALE CENTER WILL PASS WELL
OFFSHORE SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET...BUT STRONG WINDS WILL EXTEND AN
UNUSUAL DISTANCE OUT FROM THE WEATHER SYSTEM. NORTHEAST WINDS OVER
THE WATERS WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE. THIS WILL BUILD SEAS OF 7 TO
11 FEET ON THE EXPOSED WATERS. A GALE WARNING WILL EVENTUALLY BE
NEEDED FOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ALSO EXPECT REDUCED VSBYS
IN RAIN AND SNOW.

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...A SECOND WEATHER SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND MOVE OUTSIDE NANTUCKET. THIS WILL BRING
ANOTHER PERIOD OF NORTHEAST WINDS WITH GUSTS OVER 25 KNOTS. THERE
REMAIN MANY QUESTIONS ABOUT THIS NEXT SYSTEM...AS WELL AS LOW
POTENTIAL FOR WINDS REACHING 35 KNOTS. SEAS WILL REMAIN AT 7 TO 11
FEET.

WEDNESDAY... WINDS DIMINISH AS THE SECOND COASTAL STORM MOVES OFF.
WIND SPEEDS SHOULD GO BELOW 25 KNOTS. ROUGH SEAS WILL LINGER MUCH OF
THE DAY ESPECIALLY ON THE SOUTHERN EXPOSED WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
MONDAY...

THERE IS A FAIRLY HIGH ASTRO TIDE OF 11.2 IN BOSTON LATE MONDAY
MORNING.  NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS FROM LARGE
CIRCULATION OF THE INTENSIFYING OCEAN STORM WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A
1 TO 1.5 SURGE.  SEAS SHOULD BE BUILT UP TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 FEET
BY THEN...SO FEEL THERE IS A DECENT SHOT FOR POCKETS OF MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING ALONG EASTERN MA COAST.  THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR
POCKETS OF MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING...IF THE STORMS ENDS UP A BIT
FASTER AND TRACKING FURTHER WEST THAN CURRENT GUIDANCE INDICATES.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...

MAIN CONCERN IS IF WE END UP WITH A SECOND AREA OF STRONG LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING UP THE COAST...WHICH COULD IMPACT ADDITIONAL HIGH
TIDE CYCLES. LARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE ON WHETHER OR NOT THIS
HAPPENS.  IF SO...WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE TUESDAY NOON HIGH TIDE
CYCLE ACROSS EASTERN MA AS BOSTON HAS AN 11.5 ASTRO TIDE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ254-
     255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/NOCERA
MARINE...WTB/NOCERA/DUNTEN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KOKX 061734
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1234 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH TODAY AND TONIGHT. DEEP LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK OVER THE ATLANTIC LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AN
ACTIVE WINTER PATTERN WILL THEN SET UP OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN JUST TO OUR
SOUTH.

A FILTERED SUNSHINE THROUGH HIGH CLOUDS AND WEAK WAA ON SW WINDS
WILL HELP TEMPS RISE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
SFC HIGH REMAINS NEARBY TONIGHT BUT SHOULD YIELD TO DEVELOPING
AND DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY. TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES MOVES OFF THE SE COAST SUNDAY
AS NEXT NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH
SFC LOW MOVING TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION. DRY WEATHER
CONTINUES WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS AT MOST DURING THIS TIME.

TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD FALL CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS. SOME
RADIATIONAL COOLING COULD TAKE PLACE WITH SNOW PACK AND MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES...BUT LIGHT SW WIND FLOW MAY PREVENT IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING FROM OCCURRING.

ON SUNDAY...TEMPS RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S...SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CHALLENGING FORECAST WITH MANY FEATURES IN PLAY.
ONCE AGAIN...SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVES OFF THE SE
COAST...DRIVING DEEP SFC LOW OFFSHORE...PASSING SOMEWHERE SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE BENCHMARK. THEN LARGE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST...AND YET ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...THIS ONE MUCH CLOSER TO THE AREA.

CONCERN FOR EVENTUAL PLACEMENT OF FIRST LOW OFFSHORE...FOLLOWED
BY NEXT LOW AND TRACK TUESDAY. LARGE MODEL/ENSEMBLE SPREADS ON
QPF/SNOW.

BASED ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...NAM AND SREF MUCH WETTER MONDAY
AS LOW TRACKS FURTHER NORTHWARD COMPARED TO GFS/ECMWF...AND QPF
SHIELD EXTENDS MUCH FURTHER NORTHWESTWARD...OVER THE FORECAST
AREA.

HAVE DECIDED TO NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...WHICH
IS SUPPORTED BY WPC AND LATEST MODELS BLEND SUITE. WOULD EXPECT
PRECIP TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH MONDAY ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
LOW.

EVEN IF THAT DOES NOT OCCUR...LIFT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
TROUGH SHOULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT SNOW BEFORE NEXT
LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.

AS THE INITIAL SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH PIVOTS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST AND DEPARTS TO THE EAST...AND NEXT TROUGH APPROACHES AND
SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...WE COULD BE
LOOKING AT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOW FROM MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW IS QUITE POSSIBLE. CANNOT THOUGH
RULE OUT POSSIBLE HEAVIER QPF IF INGREDIENTS COME TOGETHER FOR
SUCH.

HAVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH SNOW AT TIMES
MAY VERY WELL OCCUR MONDAY THRU WED. HOWEVER...HAVE MUCH
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN EXACT DETAILS AND WHERE ANY HEAVIER SNOW
BANDS SET UP. STAY TUNED.

ARCTIC AIR STILL LOOKS POISED FOR THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF USHERS
IT IN WITH A CLIPPER FRI WHICH WOULD BRING MORE SNOW CHCS.
IN SUMMARY...THERE ARE CHCS FOR PCPN IN EVERY PERIOD OF THE
EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE REGION TODAY BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE
TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SW WINDS AROUND 10 KT WILL DIMINISH TO
LESS THAN 10 KT THIS EVENING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.SUNDAY AFTERNOON...VFR. WINDS 5 KT OR LESS.
.SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN -SN...
ESPECIALLY FOR CT AND LONG ISLAND TERMINALS. NE WINDS AROUND 15 KT
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT.
.TUESDAY...SUB-VFR CONDS LIKELY IN SNOW. MIXED PRECIP POSSIBLE
NEAR THE COAST.
.WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN -SN.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-ADVSY CONDS WILL PREVAIL ON ALL WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH. WINDS GUSTS AROUND 20 KT LIKELY LATE
TODAY INTO THIS EVENING...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 4 FT ON
THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS.

AN AREA OF LOW PRES DEVELOPS OFF THE SE COAST SUNDAY...INTENSIFYING
AS IT TRACKS NE. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SUN NIGHT WITH
GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE BEST CHC FOR GALES
CURRENTLY EXISTS ON THE OCEAN WATERS AND EASTERN LI SOUND/BAYS SO
HAVE ISSUED A GALE WATCH FOR THESE ZONES. THE STRONG WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY MON. OTHERWISE...SCA
LIKELY DURING THIS TIME.

SCA IS THEN LIKELY ON MOST OF THE WATERS INTO TUE AS A WEAKER LOW
PRES SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PASS CLOSER TO THE LOCAL AREA. WINDS
THEN DECREASE TEMPORARILY TUE NIGHT...ALTHOUGH SEAS ON THE OCEAN
WILL REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT...BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN ON WED FROM A
TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THRU
MON...AND AGAIN DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MOST IF NOT ALL OF
THE PCPN THAT FALLS LIKELY TO BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW ATTM.

WIDESPREAD PCPN IS POSSIBLE LATE SUN NGT THRU MON...AND AGAIN DURING
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE PCPN THAT FALLS
LIKELY TO BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW ATTM.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEW MOON ON MONDAY AND POTENTIAL FOR NERLY
WINDS MONDAY AND TUE...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TIDES FOR POSSIBLE MINOR
CSTL FLOODING.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ330-340-350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PW
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...JMC/PW
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...24
HYDROLOGY...PW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KALY 061721
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1221 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER OVER THE
WEEKEND. A FAST MOVING...CLIPPER...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS
TO OUR NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON THE LOCAL
AREA. SOME SNOW IS POSSIBLE FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1215 PM EST...SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WERE
OCCURRING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK VALLEY AND LAKE
GEORGE SARATOGA REGION. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WAS ON THE
LIGHT SIDE AND WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THIS AREA INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
HAVE INCREASED THE POPS ACROSS THIS AREA AS WELL AS FOR THE
SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS WHERE SOME UPSLOPE MAY OCCUR. ANY
ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE A DUSTING TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH. THE SNOW
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON
AS LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY. SOME MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE SPREADING INTO THE REGION AND WE SHOULD SEE
FILTERED SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS. EVEN WITH
THE FILTERED SUN...TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB TO HIGHS IN THE MID
30S TO LOWER 40S.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL BE IN CONTROL TONIGHT BUT A COLD
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM CANADA BY DAYBREAK AND THROUGH
THE DAY SUNDAY AS UPPER ENERGY TRACKS EAST THROUGH SE CANADA. MORE
INTERVALS OF HIGH CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS.
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A LITTLE AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT BUT VERY LIGHT WINDS SUNDAY COULD LIMIT MIXING. HIGHS
SUNDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S...SOME 30S IN NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO TRACK ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND OFFSHORE...WITH A
GENERAL CONSENSUS FROM SOURCES OF GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES FOR THE
PRIMARY UPPER ENERGY AND LOW LEVEL FORCING TO TRACK WELL SOUTH AND
EAST OF NEW ENGLAND. THERE ARE STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTIES...THOUGH...BECAUSE DIGGING...TRAILING...STRONG
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY MAY HAVE SOME INFLUENCE IN HOW FAR NORTH
AND WEST THE STEADIER PRECIPITATION GETS...DEPENDING ON ITS
INFLUENCE ON THE TRACK OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM...IF AT ALL.

ALSO...AS THE COASTAL SYSTEM DEVELOPS...THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT THERE COULD BE A SOMEWHAT LONG FETCH OF EASTERLY
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OFF THE OCEAN INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. WHICH
COULD RESULT IN A MORE EXPANDED PRECIPITATION SHIELD. LOTS OF
IFS...WHICH AGAIN ILLUSTRATES THE UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT. AT THE
VERY LEAST...THE DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY AND MOISTURE FROM
THE GREAT LAKES COULD BRING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT TO THE REGION. TIME WILL TELL HOW
EVERYTHING SORTS OUT IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

SO...GENERALLY BECOMING CLOUDY SUNDAY NIGHT AND STAYING MAINLY
CLOUDY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. ON MONDAY...INDICATING HIGH
CHANCES BORDERING ON LIKELY FOR SNOW IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
NW CT. SMALLER CHANCES TO THE SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN VT
WITH SLIGHT CHANCES A LITTLE NORTH AND WEST OF THOSE AREAS. BY
MONDAY NIGHT...MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE HIGH CHANCES FOR SNOW. HIGHS
MONDAY IN THE LOWER 30S NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 30S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MORE WINTER LIKE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE LONG TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST...WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING FROM NEAR
NORMAL ON TUESDAY TO BELOW NORMAL TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
THERE WILL BE MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS
DURING THE PERIOD AS WELL.

THE PERIOD STARTS OUT ON TUESDAY WITH A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN
ACROSS THE CONUS AND A SPRAWLING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATING SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT WILL SPAWN A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THERE
IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE EVENTUAL STRENGTH OF
THIS SYSTEM...AS IT MAY NOT HAVE MUCH BAROCLINICITY TO WORK WITH.
THIS WILL STILL BE A SYSTEM TO KEEP AN EYE ON...AS DEPENDING ON THE
EXACT TRACK COULD BRING AT LEAST A LIGHT SNOWFALL TO PARTS OF THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. WILL
MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR NOW...WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS ANY
SNOWFALL WILL BE LIGHT...HOWEVER THERE ARE SEVERAL FACTORS THAT MAY
ALLOW THE STORM TO TAKE A MORE WESTERLY TRACK WHICH WOULD RESULT IN
GREATER SNOWFALL. STAY TUNED.

BY WEDNESDAY ANY POTENTIAL STORM SHOULD BE WELL OFFSHORE AND FAR
NORTH AND EAST OF OUR REGION. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVING
THROUGH ALONG WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT LOOKS POISED TO CROSS OUR
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT...WHILE THE
MAIN STORY WILL BE MUCH COLDER ARCTIC AIR SURGING SOUTHWARD INTO THE
REGION.

A SMALL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MAY BRIEFLY BUILD IN THURSDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE THE NEXT POTENTIALLY STRONG ARCTIC FRONT COULD USHER
IN THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON THUS FAR STARTING LATE FRIDAY. WE
ARE STILL ABOUT A WEEK AWAY FROM THIS...BUT WILL NOTE THE GFS/ECMWF
HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH SHOWING SUB-500 DECAMETER THICKNESS
VALUES OVER THE REGION BY THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD FOR
ALL TAF SITES. THROUGH 21Z SATURDAY AT KGFL...SOME VCSH
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AS WEAKENING SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES
MOVE EAST BUT ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE NO CHANGE IN ANY FLIGHT
CATEGORIES. CLOUD COVERAGE WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE AFTER 00Z SUNDAY
AND BY 12Z SUNDAY...ONLY A FEW MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE REGION.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS WE GO PAST 00Z SUNDAY AND
INCREASE TO 5-10 KNOTS AFTER 12Z SUNDAY OUT OF THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO CONCERNS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS AS ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT OR IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

THE THIRD WINTER SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE SEASON WAS ISSUED
ON FEBRUARY 4TH.

HIGHLIGHTS...REFER TO THE PRODUCTS FOR DETAILS (ALBESFALY):

DUE TO BELOW NORMAL SNOW COVER AND RIVER ICE...POTENTIAL FOR
SNOWMELT AND ICE JAM FLOODING IS LOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

ALTHOUGH WATER SUPPLY LEVELS ARE NOT A CONCERN AT THE MOMENT...THERE
IS CURRENTLY VERY LITTLE SNOW WATER AVAILABLE FOR RESERVOIR RECHARGE
ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. IT WILL TAKE A STEADY SUPPLY OF RAIN AND
SNOW THROUGH SPRING INTO SUMMER FOR RESERVOIRS TO MAINTAIN ADEQUATE
LEVELS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...11/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...LFM
HYDROLOGY...NAS




000
FXUS61 KALY 061719
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1219 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER OVER THE
WEEKEND. A FAST MOVING...CLIPPER...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS
TO OUR NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON THE LOCAL
AREA. SOME SNOW IS POSSIBLE FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1215 PM EST...SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WERE
OCCURRING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK VALLEY AND LAKE
GEORGE SARATOGA REGION. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WAS ON THE
LIGHT SIDE AND WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THIS AREA INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
HAVE INCREASED THE POPS ACROSS THIS AREA AS WELL AS FOR THE
SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS WHERE SOME UPSLOPE MAY OCCUR. ANY
ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE A DUSTING TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH. THE SNOW
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON
AS LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY. SOME MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE SPREADING INTO THE REGION AND WE SHOULD SEE
FILTERED SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS. EVEN WITH
THE FILTERED SUN...TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB TO HIGHS IN THE MID
30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL BE IN CONTROL TONIGHT BUT A COLD
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM CANADA BY DAYBREAK AND THROUGH
THE DAY SUNDAY AS UPPER ENERGY TRACKS EAST THROUGH SE CANADA. MORE
INTERVALS OF HIGH CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS.
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A LITTLE AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT BUT VERY LIGHT WINDS SUNDAY COULD LIMIT MIXING. HIGHS
SUNDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S...SOME 30S IN NORTHERN AREAS.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND OFFSHORE...WITH A GENERAL
CONSENSUS FROM SOURCES OF GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES FOR THE PRIMARY
UPPER ENERGY AND LOW LEVEL FORCING TO TRACK WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF
NEW ENGLAND. THERE ARE STILL SOME UNCERTAINTIES...THOUGH...BECAUSE
DIGGING...TRAILING...STRONG NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY MAY HAVE SOME
INFLUENCE IN HOW FAR NORTH AND WEST THE STEADIER PRECIPITATION
GETS...DEPENDING ON ITS INFLUENCE ON THE TRACK OF THE SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM...IF AT ALL.

ALSO...AS THE COASTAL SYSTEM DEVELOPS...THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT THERE COULD BE A SOMEWHAT LONG FETCH OF EASTERLY
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OFF THE OCEAN INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. WHICH
COULD RESULT IN A MORE EXPANDED PRECIPITATION SHIELD. LOTS OF
IFS...WHICH AGAIN ILLUSTRATES THE UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT. AT THE
VERY LEAST...THE DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY AND MOISTURE FROM
THE GREAT LAKES COULD BRING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT TO THE REGION. TIME WILL TELL HOW
EVERYTHING SORTS OUT IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

SO...GENERALLY BECOMING CLOUDY SUNDAY NIGHT AND STAYING MAINLY
CLOUDY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. ON MONDAY...INDICATING HIGH
CHANCES BORDERING ON LIKELY FOR SNOW IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
NW CT. SMALLER CHANCES TO THE SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN VT
WITH SLIGHT CHANCES A LITTLE NORTH AND WEST OF THOSE AREAS. BY
MONDAY NIGHT...MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE HIGH CHANCES FOR SNOW. HIGHS
MONDAY IN THE LOWER 30S NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 30S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MORE WINTER LIKE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE LONG TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST...WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING FROM NEAR
NORMAL ON TUESDAY TO BELOW NORMAL TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
THERE WILL BE MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS
DURING THE PERIOD AS WELL.

THE PERIOD STARTS OUT ON TUESDAY WITH A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN
ACROSS THE CONUS AND A SPRAWLING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATING SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT WILL SPAWN A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THERE
IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE EVENTUAL STRENGTH OF
THIS SYSTEM...AS IT MAY NOT HAVE MUCH BAROCLINICITY TO WORK WITH.
THIS WILL STILL BE A SYSTEM TO KEEP AN EYE ON...AS DEPENDING ON THE
EXACT TRACK COULD BRING AT LEAST A LIGHT SNOWFALL TO PARTS OF THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. WILL
MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR NOW...WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS ANY
SNOWFALL WILL BE LIGHT...HOWEVER THERE ARE SEVERAL FACTORS THAT MAY
ALLOW THE STORM TO TAKE A MORE WESTERLY TRACK WHICH WOULD RESULT IN
GREATER SNOWFALL. STAY TUNED.

BY WEDNESDAY ANY POTENTIAL STORM SHOULD BE WELL OFFSHORE AND FAR
NORTH AND EAST OF OUR REGION. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVING
THROUGH ALONG WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT LOOKS POISED TO CROSS OUR
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT...WHILE THE
MAIN STORY WILL BE MUCH COLDER ARCTIC AIR SURGING SOUTHWARD INTO THE
REGION.

A SMALL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MAY BRIEFLY BUILD IN THURSDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE THE NEXT POTENTIALLY STRONG ARCTIC FRONT COULD USHER
IN THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON THUS FAR STARTING LATE FRIDAY. WE
ARE STILL ABOUT A WEEK AWAY FROM THIS...BUT WILL NOTE THE GFS/ECMWF
HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH SHOWING SUB-500 DECAMETER THICKNESS
VALUES OVER THE REGION BY THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD FOR
ALL TAF SITES. THROUGH 21Z SATURDAY AT KGFL...SOME VCSH
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AS WEAKENING SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES
MOVE EAST BUT ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE NO CHANGE IN ANY FLIGHT
CATEGORIES. CLOUD COVERAGE WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE AFTER 00Z SUNDAY
AND BY 12Z SUNDAY...ONLY A FEW MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE REGION.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS WE GO PAST 00Z SUNDAY AND
INCREASE TO 5-10 KNOTS AFTER 12Z SUNDAY OUT OF THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO CONCERNS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS AS ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT OR IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

THE THIRD WINTER SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE SEASON WAS ISSUED
ON FEBRUARY 4TH.

HIGHLIGHTS...REFER TO THE PRODUCTS FOR DETAILS (ALBESFALY):

DUE TO BELOW NORMAL SNOW COVER AND RIVER ICE...POTENTIAL FOR
SNOWMELT AND ICE JAM FLOODING IS LOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

ALTHOUGH WATER SUPPLY LEVELS ARE NOT A CONCERN AT THE MOMENT...THERE
IS CURRENTLY VERY LITTLE SNOW WATER AVAILABLE FOR RESERVOIR RECHARGE
ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. IT WILL TAKE A STEADY SUPPLY OF RAIN AND
SNOW THROUGH SPRING INTO SUMMER FOR RESERVOIRS TO MAINTAIN ADEQUATE
LEVELS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...11/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...LFM
HYDROLOGY...NAS




000
FXUS61 KALY 061657
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1157 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER OVER THE
WEEKEND. A FAST MOVING...CLIPPER...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS
TO OUR NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON THE LOCAL
AREA. SOME SNOW IS POSSIBLE FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 940 AM EST...SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WERE
OCCURRING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY. MOST
OF THE PRECIPITATION WAS ON THE LIGHT SIDE AND WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THIS AREA INTO THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE INCREASED THE POPS
ACROSS THIS AREA. FURTHER EAST THE PRECIPITATION WAS WEAKENING AS
IT ENCOUNTERS DRIER AIR IN THE HUDSON VALLEY. THE SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL
FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY. SOME MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS ARE SPREADING INTO THE REGION AND WE SHOULD SEE FILTERED
SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS. EVEN WITH THE
FILTERED SUN...TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB TO HIGHS IN THE MID 30S
TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL BE IN CONTROL TONIGHT BUT A COLD
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM CANADA BY DAYBREAK AND THROUGH
THE DAY SUNDAY AS UPPER ENERGY TRACKS EAST THROUGH SE CANADA. MORE
INTERVALS OF HIGH CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS.
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A LITTLE AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT BUT VERY LIGHT WINDS SUNDAY COULD LIMIT MIXING. HIGHS
SUNDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S...SOME 30S IN NORTHERN AREAS.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND OFFSHORE...WITH A GENERAL
CONSENSUS FROM SOURCES OF GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES FOR THE PRIMARY
UPPER ENERGY AND LOW LEVEL FORCING TO TRACK WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF
NEW ENGLAND. THERE ARE STILL SOME UNCERTAINTIES...THOUGH...BECAUSE
DIGGING...TRAILING...STRONG NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY MAY HAVE SOME
INFLUENCE IN HOW FAR NORTH AND WEST THE STEADIER PRECIPITATION
GETS...DEPENDING ON ITS INFLUENCE ON THE TRACK OF THE SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM...IF AT ALL.

ALSO...AS THE COASTAL SYSTEM DEVELOPS...THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT THERE COULD BE A SOMEWHAT LONG FETCH OF EASTERLY
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OFF THE OCEAN INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. WHICH
COULD RESULT IN A MORE EXPANDED PRECIPITATION SHIELD. LOTS OF
IFS...WHICH AGAIN ILLUSTRATES THE UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT. AT THE
VERY LEAST...THE DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY AND MOISTURE FROM
THE GREAT LAKES COULD BRING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT TO THE REGION. TIME WILL TELL HOW
EVERYTHING SORTS OUT IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

SO...GENERALLY BECOMING CLOUDY SUNDAY NIGHT AND STAYING MAINLY
CLOUDY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. ON MONDAY...INDICATING HIGH
CHANCES BORDERING ON LIKELY FOR SNOW IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
NW CT. SMALLER CHANCES TO THE SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN VT
WITH SLIGHT CHANCES A LITTLE NORTH AND WEST OF THOSE AREAS. BY
MONDAY NIGHT...MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE HIGH CHANCES FOR SNOW. HIGHS
MONDAY IN THE LOWER 30S NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 30S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MORE WINTER LIKE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE LONG TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST...WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING FROM NEAR
NORMAL ON TUESDAY TO BELOW NORMAL TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
THERE WILL BE MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS
DURING THE PERIOD AS WELL.

THE PERIOD STARTS OUT ON TUESDAY WITH A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN
ACROSS THE CONUS AND A SPRAWLING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATING SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT WILL SPAWN A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THERE
IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE EVENTUAL STRENGTH OF
THIS SYSTEM...AS IT MAY NOT HAVE MUCH BAROCLINICITY TO WORK WITH.
THIS WILL STILL BE A SYSTEM TO KEEP AN EYE ON...AS DEPENDING ON THE
EXACT TRACK COULD BRING AT LEAST A LIGHT SNOWFALL TO PARTS OF THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. WILL
MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR NOW...WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS ANY
SNOWFALL WILL BE LIGHT...HOWEVER THERE ARE SEVERAL FACTORS THAT MAY
ALLOW THE STORM TO TAKE A MORE WESTERLY TRACK WHICH WOULD RESULT IN
GREATER SNOWFALL. STAY TUNED.

BY WEDNESDAY ANY POTENTIAL STORM SHOULD BE WELL OFFSHORE AND FAR
NORTH AND EAST OF OUR REGION. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVING
THROUGH ALONG WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT LOOKS POISED TO CROSS OUR
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT...WHILE THE
MAIN STORY WILL BE MUCH COLDER ARCTIC AIR SURGING SOUTHWARD INTO THE
REGION.

A SMALL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MAY BRIEFLY BUILD IN THURSDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE THE NEXT POTENTIALLY STRONG ARCTIC FRONT COULD USHER
IN THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON THUS FAR STARTING LATE FRIDAY. WE
ARE STILL ABOUT A WEEK AWAY FROM THIS...BUT WILL NOTE THE GFS/ECMWF
HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH SHOWING SUB-500 DECAMETER THICKNESS
VALUES OVER THE REGION BY THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD FOR
ALL TAF SITES. THROUGH 21Z SATURDAY AT KGFL...SOME VCSH
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AS WEAKENING SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES
MOVE EAST BUT ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE NO CHANGE IN ANY FLIGHT
CATEGORIES. CLOUD COVERAGE WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE AFTER 00Z SUNDAY
AND BY 12Z SUNDAY...ONLY A FEW MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE REGION.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS WE GO PAST 00Z SUNDAY AND
INCREASE TO 5-10 KNOTS AFTER 12Z SUNDAY OUT OF THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO CONCERNS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS AS ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT OR IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

THE THIRD WINTER SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE SEASON WAS ISSUED
ON FEBRUARY 4TH.

HIGHLIGHTS...REFER TO THE PRODUCTS FOR DETAILS (ALBESFALY):

DUE TO BELOW NORMAL SNOW COVER AND RIVER ICE...POTENTIAL FOR
SNOWMELT AND ICE JAM FLOODING IS LOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

ALTHOUGH WATER SUPPLY LEVELS ARE NOT A CONCERN AT THE MOMENT...THERE
IS CURRENTLY VERY LITTLE SNOW WATER AVAILABLE FOR RESERVOIR RECHARGE
ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. IT WILL TAKE A STEADY SUPPLY OF RAIN AND
SNOW THROUGH SPRING INTO SUMMER FOR RESERVOIRS TO MAINTAIN ADEQUATE
LEVELS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...11/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...LFM
HYDROLOGY...NAS




000
FXUS61 KALY 061657
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1157 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER OVER THE
WEEKEND. A FAST MOVING...CLIPPER...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS
TO OUR NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON THE LOCAL
AREA. SOME SNOW IS POSSIBLE FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 940 AM EST...SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WERE
OCCURRING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY. MOST
OF THE PRECIPITATION WAS ON THE LIGHT SIDE AND WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THIS AREA INTO THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE INCREASED THE POPS
ACROSS THIS AREA. FURTHER EAST THE PRECIPITATION WAS WEAKENING AS
IT ENCOUNTERS DRIER AIR IN THE HUDSON VALLEY. THE SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL
FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY. SOME MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS ARE SPREADING INTO THE REGION AND WE SHOULD SEE FILTERED
SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS. EVEN WITH THE
FILTERED SUN...TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB TO HIGHS IN THE MID 30S
TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL BE IN CONTROL TONIGHT BUT A COLD
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM CANADA BY DAYBREAK AND THROUGH
THE DAY SUNDAY AS UPPER ENERGY TRACKS EAST THROUGH SE CANADA. MORE
INTERVALS OF HIGH CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS.
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A LITTLE AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT BUT VERY LIGHT WINDS SUNDAY COULD LIMIT MIXING. HIGHS
SUNDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S...SOME 30S IN NORTHERN AREAS.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND OFFSHORE...WITH A GENERAL
CONSENSUS FROM SOURCES OF GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES FOR THE PRIMARY
UPPER ENERGY AND LOW LEVEL FORCING TO TRACK WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF
NEW ENGLAND. THERE ARE STILL SOME UNCERTAINTIES...THOUGH...BECAUSE
DIGGING...TRAILING...STRONG NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY MAY HAVE SOME
INFLUENCE IN HOW FAR NORTH AND WEST THE STEADIER PRECIPITATION
GETS...DEPENDING ON ITS INFLUENCE ON THE TRACK OF THE SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM...IF AT ALL.

ALSO...AS THE COASTAL SYSTEM DEVELOPS...THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT THERE COULD BE A SOMEWHAT LONG FETCH OF EASTERLY
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OFF THE OCEAN INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. WHICH
COULD RESULT IN A MORE EXPANDED PRECIPITATION SHIELD. LOTS OF
IFS...WHICH AGAIN ILLUSTRATES THE UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT. AT THE
VERY LEAST...THE DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY AND MOISTURE FROM
THE GREAT LAKES COULD BRING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT TO THE REGION. TIME WILL TELL HOW
EVERYTHING SORTS OUT IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

SO...GENERALLY BECOMING CLOUDY SUNDAY NIGHT AND STAYING MAINLY
CLOUDY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. ON MONDAY...INDICATING HIGH
CHANCES BORDERING ON LIKELY FOR SNOW IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
NW CT. SMALLER CHANCES TO THE SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN VT
WITH SLIGHT CHANCES A LITTLE NORTH AND WEST OF THOSE AREAS. BY
MONDAY NIGHT...MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE HIGH CHANCES FOR SNOW. HIGHS
MONDAY IN THE LOWER 30S NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 30S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MORE WINTER LIKE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE LONG TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST...WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING FROM NEAR
NORMAL ON TUESDAY TO BELOW NORMAL TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
THERE WILL BE MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS
DURING THE PERIOD AS WELL.

THE PERIOD STARTS OUT ON TUESDAY WITH A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN
ACROSS THE CONUS AND A SPRAWLING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATING SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT WILL SPAWN A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THERE
IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE EVENTUAL STRENGTH OF
THIS SYSTEM...AS IT MAY NOT HAVE MUCH BAROCLINICITY TO WORK WITH.
THIS WILL STILL BE A SYSTEM TO KEEP AN EYE ON...AS DEPENDING ON THE
EXACT TRACK COULD BRING AT LEAST A LIGHT SNOWFALL TO PARTS OF THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. WILL
MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR NOW...WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS ANY
SNOWFALL WILL BE LIGHT...HOWEVER THERE ARE SEVERAL FACTORS THAT MAY
ALLOW THE STORM TO TAKE A MORE WESTERLY TRACK WHICH WOULD RESULT IN
GREATER SNOWFALL. STAY TUNED.

BY WEDNESDAY ANY POTENTIAL STORM SHOULD BE WELL OFFSHORE AND FAR
NORTH AND EAST OF OUR REGION. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVING
THROUGH ALONG WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT LOOKS POISED TO CROSS OUR
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT...WHILE THE
MAIN STORY WILL BE MUCH COLDER ARCTIC AIR SURGING SOUTHWARD INTO THE
REGION.

A SMALL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MAY BRIEFLY BUILD IN THURSDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE THE NEXT POTENTIALLY STRONG ARCTIC FRONT COULD USHER
IN THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON THUS FAR STARTING LATE FRIDAY. WE
ARE STILL ABOUT A WEEK AWAY FROM THIS...BUT WILL NOTE THE GFS/ECMWF
HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH SHOWING SUB-500 DECAMETER THICKNESS
VALUES OVER THE REGION BY THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD FOR
ALL TAF SITES. THROUGH 21Z SATURDAY AT KGFL...SOME VCSH
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AS WEAKENING SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES
MOVE EAST BUT ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE NO CHANGE IN ANY FLIGHT
CATEGORIES. CLOUD COVERAGE WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE AFTER 00Z SUNDAY
AND BY 12Z SUNDAY...ONLY A FEW MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE REGION.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS WE GO PAST 00Z SUNDAY AND
INCREASE TO 5-10 KNOTS AFTER 12Z SUNDAY OUT OF THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO CONCERNS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS AS ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT OR IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

THE THIRD WINTER SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE SEASON WAS ISSUED
ON FEBRUARY 4TH.

HIGHLIGHTS...REFER TO THE PRODUCTS FOR DETAILS (ALBESFALY):

DUE TO BELOW NORMAL SNOW COVER AND RIVER ICE...POTENTIAL FOR
SNOWMELT AND ICE JAM FLOODING IS LOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

ALTHOUGH WATER SUPPLY LEVELS ARE NOT A CONCERN AT THE MOMENT...THERE
IS CURRENTLY VERY LITTLE SNOW WATER AVAILABLE FOR RESERVOIR RECHARGE
ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. IT WILL TAKE A STEADY SUPPLY OF RAIN AND
SNOW THROUGH SPRING INTO SUMMER FOR RESERVOIRS TO MAINTAIN ADEQUATE
LEVELS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...11/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...LFM
HYDROLOGY...NAS




000
FXUS61 KALY 061657
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1157 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER OVER THE
WEEKEND. A FAST MOVING...CLIPPER...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS
TO OUR NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON THE LOCAL
AREA. SOME SNOW IS POSSIBLE FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 940 AM EST...SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WERE
OCCURRING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY. MOST
OF THE PRECIPITATION WAS ON THE LIGHT SIDE AND WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THIS AREA INTO THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE INCREASED THE POPS
ACROSS THIS AREA. FURTHER EAST THE PRECIPITATION WAS WEAKENING AS
IT ENCOUNTERS DRIER AIR IN THE HUDSON VALLEY. THE SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL
FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY. SOME MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS ARE SPREADING INTO THE REGION AND WE SHOULD SEE FILTERED
SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS. EVEN WITH THE
FILTERED SUN...TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB TO HIGHS IN THE MID 30S
TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL BE IN CONTROL TONIGHT BUT A COLD
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM CANADA BY DAYBREAK AND THROUGH
THE DAY SUNDAY AS UPPER ENERGY TRACKS EAST THROUGH SE CANADA. MORE
INTERVALS OF HIGH CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS.
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A LITTLE AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT BUT VERY LIGHT WINDS SUNDAY COULD LIMIT MIXING. HIGHS
SUNDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S...SOME 30S IN NORTHERN AREAS.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND OFFSHORE...WITH A GENERAL
CONSENSUS FROM SOURCES OF GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES FOR THE PRIMARY
UPPER ENERGY AND LOW LEVEL FORCING TO TRACK WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF
NEW ENGLAND. THERE ARE STILL SOME UNCERTAINTIES...THOUGH...BECAUSE
DIGGING...TRAILING...STRONG NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY MAY HAVE SOME
INFLUENCE IN HOW FAR NORTH AND WEST THE STEADIER PRECIPITATION
GETS...DEPENDING ON ITS INFLUENCE ON THE TRACK OF THE SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM...IF AT ALL.

ALSO...AS THE COASTAL SYSTEM DEVELOPS...THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT THERE COULD BE A SOMEWHAT LONG FETCH OF EASTERLY
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OFF THE OCEAN INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. WHICH
COULD RESULT IN A MORE EXPANDED PRECIPITATION SHIELD. LOTS OF
IFS...WHICH AGAIN ILLUSTRATES THE UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT. AT THE
VERY LEAST...THE DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY AND MOISTURE FROM
THE GREAT LAKES COULD BRING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT TO THE REGION. TIME WILL TELL HOW
EVERYTHING SORTS OUT IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

SO...GENERALLY BECOMING CLOUDY SUNDAY NIGHT AND STAYING MAINLY
CLOUDY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. ON MONDAY...INDICATING HIGH
CHANCES BORDERING ON LIKELY FOR SNOW IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
NW CT. SMALLER CHANCES TO THE SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN VT
WITH SLIGHT CHANCES A LITTLE NORTH AND WEST OF THOSE AREAS. BY
MONDAY NIGHT...MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE HIGH CHANCES FOR SNOW. HIGHS
MONDAY IN THE LOWER 30S NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 30S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MORE WINTER LIKE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE LONG TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST...WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING FROM NEAR
NORMAL ON TUESDAY TO BELOW NORMAL TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
THERE WILL BE MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS
DURING THE PERIOD AS WELL.

THE PERIOD STARTS OUT ON TUESDAY WITH A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN
ACROSS THE CONUS AND A SPRAWLING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATING SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT WILL SPAWN A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THERE
IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE EVENTUAL STRENGTH OF
THIS SYSTEM...AS IT MAY NOT HAVE MUCH BAROCLINICITY TO WORK WITH.
THIS WILL STILL BE A SYSTEM TO KEEP AN EYE ON...AS DEPENDING ON THE
EXACT TRACK COULD BRING AT LEAST A LIGHT SNOWFALL TO PARTS OF THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. WILL
MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR NOW...WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS ANY
SNOWFALL WILL BE LIGHT...HOWEVER THERE ARE SEVERAL FACTORS THAT MAY
ALLOW THE STORM TO TAKE A MORE WESTERLY TRACK WHICH WOULD RESULT IN
GREATER SNOWFALL. STAY TUNED.

BY WEDNESDAY ANY POTENTIAL STORM SHOULD BE WELL OFFSHORE AND FAR
NORTH AND EAST OF OUR REGION. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVING
THROUGH ALONG WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT LOOKS POISED TO CROSS OUR
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT...WHILE THE
MAIN STORY WILL BE MUCH COLDER ARCTIC AIR SURGING SOUTHWARD INTO THE
REGION.

A SMALL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MAY BRIEFLY BUILD IN THURSDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE THE NEXT POTENTIALLY STRONG ARCTIC FRONT COULD USHER
IN THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON THUS FAR STARTING LATE FRIDAY. WE
ARE STILL ABOUT A WEEK AWAY FROM THIS...BUT WILL NOTE THE GFS/ECMWF
HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH SHOWING SUB-500 DECAMETER THICKNESS
VALUES OVER THE REGION BY THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD FOR
ALL TAF SITES. THROUGH 21Z SATURDAY AT KGFL...SOME VCSH
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AS WEAKENING SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES
MOVE EAST BUT ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE NO CHANGE IN ANY FLIGHT
CATEGORIES. CLOUD COVERAGE WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE AFTER 00Z SUNDAY
AND BY 12Z SUNDAY...ONLY A FEW MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE REGION.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS WE GO PAST 00Z SUNDAY AND
INCREASE TO 5-10 KNOTS AFTER 12Z SUNDAY OUT OF THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO CONCERNS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS AS ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT OR IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

THE THIRD WINTER SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE SEASON WAS ISSUED
ON FEBRUARY 4TH.

HIGHLIGHTS...REFER TO THE PRODUCTS FOR DETAILS (ALBESFALY):

DUE TO BELOW NORMAL SNOW COVER AND RIVER ICE...POTENTIAL FOR
SNOWMELT AND ICE JAM FLOODING IS LOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

ALTHOUGH WATER SUPPLY LEVELS ARE NOT A CONCERN AT THE MOMENT...THERE
IS CURRENTLY VERY LITTLE SNOW WATER AVAILABLE FOR RESERVOIR RECHARGE
ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. IT WILL TAKE A STEADY SUPPLY OF RAIN AND
SNOW THROUGH SPRING INTO SUMMER FOR RESERVOIRS TO MAINTAIN ADEQUATE
LEVELS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...11/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...LFM
HYDROLOGY...NAS



000
FXUS61 KBOX 061502
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1002 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY WEATHER THIS WEEKEND WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY. TWO DEVELOPING COASTAL STORMS MAY BRING
ACCUMULATING SNOW MONDAY AND TUESDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN
MA. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT BRINGS MUCH CHILLIER AIR FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

10 AM UPDATE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE
REGION TODAY POSITIONS HIGH PRES AT THE SURFACE JUST SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND. THIS WILL RESULT IN WINDS BECOMING WSW THIS AFTERNOON AND
HELPING TEMPS RECOVER TO 35 TO 40. SO OTHER THAN ADJUSTING HOURLY
TEMPS A BIT PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO SET UP OVER THE REGION
TODAY. A PASSING HIGH TO OUR SOUTH WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE REGION FOR THIS AFTERNOON. ANTICIPATE GUSTS BETWEEN 15-20
MPH. WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL WILL ALSO BRING SOME MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA RESULTING IN A FILTERED SUNSHINE. GUIDANCE DOES
INDICATE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S BUT WITH THE FRESH
SNOW PACK THAT MAY BE A BIT TO OPTIMISTIC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINLY DOMINATE RESULTING IN QUIET WEATHER.
HOWEVER PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE SLOW TO RELAX WHICH WILL LIMIT
RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT. TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE 20S WITH
PERHAPS LOW READINGS IN AREAS WHERE THE WIND WILL BE CALM.

SUNDAY...

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH WILL DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION ON SUNDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BE DRY BUT MAY BRING IN SOME
CLOUDS. WESTERLY FLOW WILL DOMINATE IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM IN TO THE 40S. HELP AID IN MELTING
SOME OF THE SNOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...

LONGWAVE PATTERN SHOWS RIDGE WEST/TROUGH EAST AS BEFORE...WITH
INCREASING AMPLITUDE EARLY WEEK AND DECREASING AMPLITUDE LATE WEEK.
OVERALL A COLD AND UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  AT
SHORTER WAVE SCALES WE SEE THREE SHORTWAVES AFFECTING THE PATTERN.
THE FIRST IS IN THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY AND GENERATES COASTAL
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINAS SUNDAY. THIS SWINGS WIDE OF OUR
AREA...CROSSING ABOUT 4 DEGREES SOUTH OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK...AND
THEN SWEEPS NORTHEAST JUST SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA. THE SECOND
SHORTWAVE IS MOVING ASHORE IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND WILL CARVE A
DEEP COLD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN USA DURING THE EARLY WEEK.  THE
THIRD SHORTWAVE IS ALONG THE ARCTIC OCEAN COASTLINE AND WILL DROP
SOUTH INTO THE USA MIDWEEK.

OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE MASS FIELDS ARE SIMILAR ON THE BROAD SCALE MOST
OF THE PERIOD. BUT THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS...ESPECIALLY
REGARDING THE SECOND SHORTWAVE AND ITS DEVELOPING COASTAL SYSTEM
TUESDAY. THIS SECOND SHORTWAVE WAS JUST COMING ASHORE AT MEASUREMENT
TIME LAST NIGHT. THE 12Z SATURDAY MODELS SHOULD HAVE A BETTER READ
ON THE SHORTWAVE AND ITS EFFECTS. WE CONTINUE TO FAVOR A MODEL BLEND
ESPECIALLY USING THE GFS AND ECMWF.

THE DAILIES...

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY... COASTAL STORM PASSES WELL OFFSHORE...SOME 4
DEGREES SOUTH OF THE BENCHMARK. NORMALLY THAT WOULD MEAN A SWING AND
A MISS FOR STRIKE THREE. BUT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM QUEBEC
AND ESTABLISHES A PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT SHOULD BRING A NORTHEAST
MARINE FLOW WITH DELTA OF 13-15C. THIS SHOULD AT LEAST BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY. LESS CONFIDENCE ON PCPN
GIVEN MEDIOCRE FORCING AND CHANGING RUN-TO-RUN AMOUNTS.

MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON QPF DURING MONDAY WITH MAIN FOCUS ON CAPE
AND ISLANDS...POSSIBLY EASTERN MASS. WE HAVE BACKED OFF ONSET OF
POPS UNTIL 06-12Z MONDAY AND VALUE OF POPS BY ABOUT 20 PERCENT. THIS
STILL BRINGS POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES IN EASTERN MASS WITH
HIGHEST AMOUNTS CAPE COD/PLYMOUTH CO AREA.

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY... SECOND SHORTWAVE DIGS OVER THE MIDWEST WITH
SURFACE LOW REDEVELOPMENT ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS NEW
COASTAL LOW THEN MOVES PAST NEW ENGLAND. BETTER DYNAMICS AND
RESULTING LIFT SHOULD BE IN PLACE AND WITH DEEPER MOISTURE WOULD
EXPECT THIS TO BE A BETTER CHANCE OF PCPN THAN THE MONDAY OFFSHORE
SYSTEM. BUT THE RESPONSIBLE SHORTWAVE IS JUST NOW MOVING ASHORE AS
NOTED ABOVE. SO STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND ITS
POTENTIAL. WE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... UPPER TROUGH WITH ITS COLD POOL ALOFT
AND CLOUD SHIELD LINGER WEDNESDAY. THE ARCTIC SHORTWAVE THEN SWINGS
THROUGH ON THURSDAY. EXPECT QUITE A FEW CLOUDS DURING THIS PERIOD
WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. CLIPPER LOW THEN DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM
NORTHERN ONTARIO FRIDAY AND BRINGING MORE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS. MIXED LAYER REACHES EITHER SIDE OF 925 MB EACH DAY...A
LITTLE HIGHER THURSDAY BEHIND THE ARCTIC SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE
FRONT. TEMPS ALOFT AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER SUPPORT 30S
WEDNESDAY...20S WEST/32 EAST THURSDAY...AND 20S TO NEAR 30 FRIDAY.
AS NOTED EARLIER...COLD AND UNSETTLED.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

10 AM UPDATE ... NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM 12Z TAFS. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION BELOW.

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. WINDS SHIFT TO THE SW. A FEW GUSTS
BETWEEN 15-20 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

TWO POTENTIAL STORMS DURING THIS PERIOD...EITHER COULD BRING
IFR/LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN SNOW. THE FIRST CHANCE FOR THIS WILL BE
MONDAY...WITH BEST CHANCE ON CAPE COD AND ISLANDS. NORTH-NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL GUST TO 35 KNOTS ALONG THE EASTERN MASS COAST. THE SECOND
CHANCE WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH ALL OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND UNDER THE GUN. CONDITIONS IMPROVE WEDNESDAY TO MVFR CIGS
WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

10 AM UPDATE ... NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. CHOP
SEAS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS WSW WINDS OPPOSE EASTERLY SWELLS
ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS OF RI AND MA. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

======================================================================

LINGERING SWELLS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TODAY. SCA LINGERS FOR
A PORTION OF THE DAY...BUT MAY BE ABLE TO BE DROPPED SOONER.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AN
INCREASE IN THE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD IN
RESPONSE. SCA MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW FOR BUILDING
SEAS IN RESPONSE TO GUSTY WINDS.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...A DEVELOPING GALE CENTER WILL PASS WELL
OFFSHORE SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET...BUT STRONG WINDS WILL EXTEND AN
UNUSUAL DISTANCE OUT FROM THE WEATHER SYSTEM. NORTHEAST WINDS OVER
THE WATERS WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE. THIS WILL BUILD SEAS OF 7 TO
11 FEET ON THE EXPOSED WATERS. A GALE WARNING WILL EVENTUALLY BE
NEEDED FOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ALSO EXPECT REDUCED VSBYS
IN RAIN AND SNOW.

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...A SECOND WEATHER SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND MOVE OUTSIDE NANTUCKET. THIS WILL BRING
ANOTHER PERIOD OF NORTHEAST WINDS WITH GUSTS OVER 25 KNOTS. THERE
REMAIN MANY QUESTIONS ABOUT THIS NEXT SYSTEM...AS WELL AS LOW
POTENTIAL FOR WINDS REACHING 35 KNOTS. SEAS WILL REMAIN AT 7 TO 11
FEET.

WEDNESDAY... WINDS DIMINISH AS THE SECOND COASTAL STORM MOVES OFF.
WIND SPEEDS SHOULD GO BELOW 25 KNOTS. ROUGH SEAS WILL LINGER MUCH OF
THE DAY ESPECIALLY ON THE SOUTHERN EXPOSED WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
MONDAY...

THERE IS A FAIRLY HIGH ASTRO TIDE OF 11.2 IN BOSTON LATE MONDAY
MORNING.  NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS FROM LARGE
CIRCULATION OF THE INTENSIFYING OCEAN STORM WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A
1 TO 1.5 SURGE.  SEAS SHOULD BE BUILT UP TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 FEET
BY THEN...SO FEEL THERE IS A DECENT SHOT FOR POCKETS OF MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING ALONG EASTERN MA COAST.  THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR
POCKETS OF MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING...IF THE STORMS ENDS UP A BIT
FASTER AND TRACKING FURTHER WEST THAN CURRENT GUIDANCE INDICATES.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...

MAIN CONCERN IS IF WE END UP WITH A SECOND AREA OF STRONG LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING UP THE COAST...WHICH COULD IMPACT ADDITIONAL HIGH
TIDE CYCLES. LARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE ON WHETHER OR NOT THIS
HAPPENS.  IF SO...WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE TUESDAY NOON HIGH TIDE
CYCLE ACROSS EASTERN MA AS BOSTON HAS AN 11.5 ASTRO TIDE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ254-
     255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB/NOCERA/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/NOCERA/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/NOCERA/DUNTEN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 061502
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1002 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY WEATHER THIS WEEKEND WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY. TWO DEVELOPING COASTAL STORMS MAY BRING
ACCUMULATING SNOW MONDAY AND TUESDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN
MA. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT BRINGS MUCH CHILLIER AIR FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

10 AM UPDATE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE
REGION TODAY POSITIONS HIGH PRES AT THE SURFACE JUST SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND. THIS WILL RESULT IN WINDS BECOMING WSW THIS AFTERNOON AND
HELPING TEMPS RECOVER TO 35 TO 40. SO OTHER THAN ADJUSTING HOURLY
TEMPS A BIT PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO SET UP OVER THE REGION
TODAY. A PASSING HIGH TO OUR SOUTH WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE REGION FOR THIS AFTERNOON. ANTICIPATE GUSTS BETWEEN 15-20
MPH. WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL WILL ALSO BRING SOME MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA RESULTING IN A FILTERED SUNSHINE. GUIDANCE DOES
INDICATE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S BUT WITH THE FRESH
SNOW PACK THAT MAY BE A BIT TO OPTIMISTIC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINLY DOMINATE RESULTING IN QUIET WEATHER.
HOWEVER PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE SLOW TO RELAX WHICH WILL LIMIT
RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT. TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE 20S WITH
PERHAPS LOW READINGS IN AREAS WHERE THE WIND WILL BE CALM.

SUNDAY...

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH WILL DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION ON SUNDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BE DRY BUT MAY BRING IN SOME
CLOUDS. WESTERLY FLOW WILL DOMINATE IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM IN TO THE 40S. HELP AID IN MELTING
SOME OF THE SNOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...

LONGWAVE PATTERN SHOWS RIDGE WEST/TROUGH EAST AS BEFORE...WITH
INCREASING AMPLITUDE EARLY WEEK AND DECREASING AMPLITUDE LATE WEEK.
OVERALL A COLD AND UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  AT
SHORTER WAVE SCALES WE SEE THREE SHORTWAVES AFFECTING THE PATTERN.
THE FIRST IS IN THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY AND GENERATES COASTAL
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINAS SUNDAY. THIS SWINGS WIDE OF OUR
AREA...CROSSING ABOUT 4 DEGREES SOUTH OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK...AND
THEN SWEEPS NORTHEAST JUST SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA. THE SECOND
SHORTWAVE IS MOVING ASHORE IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND WILL CARVE A
DEEP COLD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN USA DURING THE EARLY WEEK.  THE
THIRD SHORTWAVE IS ALONG THE ARCTIC OCEAN COASTLINE AND WILL DROP
SOUTH INTO THE USA MIDWEEK.

OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE MASS FIELDS ARE SIMILAR ON THE BROAD SCALE MOST
OF THE PERIOD. BUT THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS...ESPECIALLY
REGARDING THE SECOND SHORTWAVE AND ITS DEVELOPING COASTAL SYSTEM
TUESDAY. THIS SECOND SHORTWAVE WAS JUST COMING ASHORE AT MEASUREMENT
TIME LAST NIGHT. THE 12Z SATURDAY MODELS SHOULD HAVE A BETTER READ
ON THE SHORTWAVE AND ITS EFFECTS. WE CONTINUE TO FAVOR A MODEL BLEND
ESPECIALLY USING THE GFS AND ECMWF.

THE DAILIES...

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY... COASTAL STORM PASSES WELL OFFSHORE...SOME 4
DEGREES SOUTH OF THE BENCHMARK. NORMALLY THAT WOULD MEAN A SWING AND
A MISS FOR STRIKE THREE. BUT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM QUEBEC
AND ESTABLISHES A PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT SHOULD BRING A NORTHEAST
MARINE FLOW WITH DELTA OF 13-15C. THIS SHOULD AT LEAST BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY. LESS CONFIDENCE ON PCPN
GIVEN MEDIOCRE FORCING AND CHANGING RUN-TO-RUN AMOUNTS.

MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON QPF DURING MONDAY WITH MAIN FOCUS ON CAPE
AND ISLANDS...POSSIBLY EASTERN MASS. WE HAVE BACKED OFF ONSET OF
POPS UNTIL 06-12Z MONDAY AND VALUE OF POPS BY ABOUT 20 PERCENT. THIS
STILL BRINGS POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES IN EASTERN MASS WITH
HIGHEST AMOUNTS CAPE COD/PLYMOUTH CO AREA.

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY... SECOND SHORTWAVE DIGS OVER THE MIDWEST WITH
SURFACE LOW REDEVELOPMENT ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS NEW
COASTAL LOW THEN MOVES PAST NEW ENGLAND. BETTER DYNAMICS AND
RESULTING LIFT SHOULD BE IN PLACE AND WITH DEEPER MOISTURE WOULD
EXPECT THIS TO BE A BETTER CHANCE OF PCPN THAN THE MONDAY OFFSHORE
SYSTEM. BUT THE RESPONSIBLE SHORTWAVE IS JUST NOW MOVING ASHORE AS
NOTED ABOVE. SO STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND ITS
POTENTIAL. WE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... UPPER TROUGH WITH ITS COLD POOL ALOFT
AND CLOUD SHIELD LINGER WEDNESDAY. THE ARCTIC SHORTWAVE THEN SWINGS
THROUGH ON THURSDAY. EXPECT QUITE A FEW CLOUDS DURING THIS PERIOD
WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. CLIPPER LOW THEN DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM
NORTHERN ONTARIO FRIDAY AND BRINGING MORE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS. MIXED LAYER REACHES EITHER SIDE OF 925 MB EACH DAY...A
LITTLE HIGHER THURSDAY BEHIND THE ARCTIC SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE
FRONT. TEMPS ALOFT AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER SUPPORT 30S
WEDNESDAY...20S WEST/32 EAST THURSDAY...AND 20S TO NEAR 30 FRIDAY.
AS NOTED EARLIER...COLD AND UNSETTLED.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

10 AM UPDATE ... NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM 12Z TAFS. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION BELOW.

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. WINDS SHIFT TO THE SW. A FEW GUSTS
BETWEEN 15-20 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

TWO POTENTIAL STORMS DURING THIS PERIOD...EITHER COULD BRING
IFR/LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN SNOW. THE FIRST CHANCE FOR THIS WILL BE
MONDAY...WITH BEST CHANCE ON CAPE COD AND ISLANDS. NORTH-NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL GUST TO 35 KNOTS ALONG THE EASTERN MASS COAST. THE SECOND
CHANCE WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH ALL OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND UNDER THE GUN. CONDITIONS IMPROVE WEDNESDAY TO MVFR CIGS
WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

10 AM UPDATE ... NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. CHOP
SEAS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS WSW WINDS OPPOSE EASTERLY SWELLS
ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS OF RI AND MA. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

======================================================================

LINGERING SWELLS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TODAY. SCA LINGERS FOR
A PORTION OF THE DAY...BUT MAY BE ABLE TO BE DROPPED SOONER.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AN
INCREASE IN THE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD IN
RESPONSE. SCA MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW FOR BUILDING
SEAS IN RESPONSE TO GUSTY WINDS.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...A DEVELOPING GALE CENTER WILL PASS WELL
OFFSHORE SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET...BUT STRONG WINDS WILL EXTEND AN
UNUSUAL DISTANCE OUT FROM THE WEATHER SYSTEM. NORTHEAST WINDS OVER
THE WATERS WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE. THIS WILL BUILD SEAS OF 7 TO
11 FEET ON THE EXPOSED WATERS. A GALE WARNING WILL EVENTUALLY BE
NEEDED FOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ALSO EXPECT REDUCED VSBYS
IN RAIN AND SNOW.

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...A SECOND WEATHER SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND MOVE OUTSIDE NANTUCKET. THIS WILL BRING
ANOTHER PERIOD OF NORTHEAST WINDS WITH GUSTS OVER 25 KNOTS. THERE
REMAIN MANY QUESTIONS ABOUT THIS NEXT SYSTEM...AS WELL AS LOW
POTENTIAL FOR WINDS REACHING 35 KNOTS. SEAS WILL REMAIN AT 7 TO 11
FEET.

WEDNESDAY... WINDS DIMINISH AS THE SECOND COASTAL STORM MOVES OFF.
WIND SPEEDS SHOULD GO BELOW 25 KNOTS. ROUGH SEAS WILL LINGER MUCH OF
THE DAY ESPECIALLY ON THE SOUTHERN EXPOSED WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
MONDAY...

THERE IS A FAIRLY HIGH ASTRO TIDE OF 11.2 IN BOSTON LATE MONDAY
MORNING.  NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS FROM LARGE
CIRCULATION OF THE INTENSIFYING OCEAN STORM WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A
1 TO 1.5 SURGE.  SEAS SHOULD BE BUILT UP TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 FEET
BY THEN...SO FEEL THERE IS A DECENT SHOT FOR POCKETS OF MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING ALONG EASTERN MA COAST.  THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR
POCKETS OF MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING...IF THE STORMS ENDS UP A BIT
FASTER AND TRACKING FURTHER WEST THAN CURRENT GUIDANCE INDICATES.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...

MAIN CONCERN IS IF WE END UP WITH A SECOND AREA OF STRONG LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING UP THE COAST...WHICH COULD IMPACT ADDITIONAL HIGH
TIDE CYCLES. LARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE ON WHETHER OR NOT THIS
HAPPENS.  IF SO...WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE TUESDAY NOON HIGH TIDE
CYCLE ACROSS EASTERN MA AS BOSTON HAS AN 11.5 ASTRO TIDE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ254-
     255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB/NOCERA/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/NOCERA/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/NOCERA/DUNTEN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KBOX 061502
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1002 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY WEATHER THIS WEEKEND WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY. TWO DEVELOPING COASTAL STORMS MAY BRING
ACCUMULATING SNOW MONDAY AND TUESDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN
MA. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT BRINGS MUCH CHILLIER AIR FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

10 AM UPDATE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE
REGION TODAY POSITIONS HIGH PRES AT THE SURFACE JUST SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND. THIS WILL RESULT IN WINDS BECOMING WSW THIS AFTERNOON AND
HELPING TEMPS RECOVER TO 35 TO 40. SO OTHER THAN ADJUSTING HOURLY
TEMPS A BIT PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO SET UP OVER THE REGION
TODAY. A PASSING HIGH TO OUR SOUTH WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE REGION FOR THIS AFTERNOON. ANTICIPATE GUSTS BETWEEN 15-20
MPH. WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL WILL ALSO BRING SOME MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA RESULTING IN A FILTERED SUNSHINE. GUIDANCE DOES
INDICATE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S BUT WITH THE FRESH
SNOW PACK THAT MAY BE A BIT TO OPTIMISTIC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINLY DOMINATE RESULTING IN QUIET WEATHER.
HOWEVER PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE SLOW TO RELAX WHICH WILL LIMIT
RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT. TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE 20S WITH
PERHAPS LOW READINGS IN AREAS WHERE THE WIND WILL BE CALM.

SUNDAY...

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH WILL DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION ON SUNDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BE DRY BUT MAY BRING IN SOME
CLOUDS. WESTERLY FLOW WILL DOMINATE IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM IN TO THE 40S. HELP AID IN MELTING
SOME OF THE SNOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...

LONGWAVE PATTERN SHOWS RIDGE WEST/TROUGH EAST AS BEFORE...WITH
INCREASING AMPLITUDE EARLY WEEK AND DECREASING AMPLITUDE LATE WEEK.
OVERALL A COLD AND UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  AT
SHORTER WAVE SCALES WE SEE THREE SHORTWAVES AFFECTING THE PATTERN.
THE FIRST IS IN THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY AND GENERATES COASTAL
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINAS SUNDAY. THIS SWINGS WIDE OF OUR
AREA...CROSSING ABOUT 4 DEGREES SOUTH OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK...AND
THEN SWEEPS NORTHEAST JUST SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA. THE SECOND
SHORTWAVE IS MOVING ASHORE IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND WILL CARVE A
DEEP COLD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN USA DURING THE EARLY WEEK.  THE
THIRD SHORTWAVE IS ALONG THE ARCTIC OCEAN COASTLINE AND WILL DROP
SOUTH INTO THE USA MIDWEEK.

OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE MASS FIELDS ARE SIMILAR ON THE BROAD SCALE MOST
OF THE PERIOD. BUT THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS...ESPECIALLY
REGARDING THE SECOND SHORTWAVE AND ITS DEVELOPING COASTAL SYSTEM
TUESDAY. THIS SECOND SHORTWAVE WAS JUST COMING ASHORE AT MEASUREMENT
TIME LAST NIGHT. THE 12Z SATURDAY MODELS SHOULD HAVE A BETTER READ
ON THE SHORTWAVE AND ITS EFFECTS. WE CONTINUE TO FAVOR A MODEL BLEND
ESPECIALLY USING THE GFS AND ECMWF.

THE DAILIES...

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY... COASTAL STORM PASSES WELL OFFSHORE...SOME 4
DEGREES SOUTH OF THE BENCHMARK. NORMALLY THAT WOULD MEAN A SWING AND
A MISS FOR STRIKE THREE. BUT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM QUEBEC
AND ESTABLISHES A PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT SHOULD BRING A NORTHEAST
MARINE FLOW WITH DELTA OF 13-15C. THIS SHOULD AT LEAST BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY. LESS CONFIDENCE ON PCPN
GIVEN MEDIOCRE FORCING AND CHANGING RUN-TO-RUN AMOUNTS.

MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON QPF DURING MONDAY WITH MAIN FOCUS ON CAPE
AND ISLANDS...POSSIBLY EASTERN MASS. WE HAVE BACKED OFF ONSET OF
POPS UNTIL 06-12Z MONDAY AND VALUE OF POPS BY ABOUT 20 PERCENT. THIS
STILL BRINGS POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES IN EASTERN MASS WITH
HIGHEST AMOUNTS CAPE COD/PLYMOUTH CO AREA.

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY... SECOND SHORTWAVE DIGS OVER THE MIDWEST WITH
SURFACE LOW REDEVELOPMENT ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS NEW
COASTAL LOW THEN MOVES PAST NEW ENGLAND. BETTER DYNAMICS AND
RESULTING LIFT SHOULD BE IN PLACE AND WITH DEEPER MOISTURE WOULD
EXPECT THIS TO BE A BETTER CHANCE OF PCPN THAN THE MONDAY OFFSHORE
SYSTEM. BUT THE RESPONSIBLE SHORTWAVE IS JUST NOW MOVING ASHORE AS
NOTED ABOVE. SO STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND ITS
POTENTIAL. WE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... UPPER TROUGH WITH ITS COLD POOL ALOFT
AND CLOUD SHIELD LINGER WEDNESDAY. THE ARCTIC SHORTWAVE THEN SWINGS
THROUGH ON THURSDAY. EXPECT QUITE A FEW CLOUDS DURING THIS PERIOD
WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. CLIPPER LOW THEN DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM
NORTHERN ONTARIO FRIDAY AND BRINGING MORE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS. MIXED LAYER REACHES EITHER SIDE OF 925 MB EACH DAY...A
LITTLE HIGHER THURSDAY BEHIND THE ARCTIC SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE
FRONT. TEMPS ALOFT AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER SUPPORT 30S
WEDNESDAY...20S WEST/32 EAST THURSDAY...AND 20S TO NEAR 30 FRIDAY.
AS NOTED EARLIER...COLD AND UNSETTLED.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

10 AM UPDATE ... NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM 12Z TAFS. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION BELOW.

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. WINDS SHIFT TO THE SW. A FEW GUSTS
BETWEEN 15-20 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

TWO POTENTIAL STORMS DURING THIS PERIOD...EITHER COULD BRING
IFR/LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN SNOW. THE FIRST CHANCE FOR THIS WILL BE
MONDAY...WITH BEST CHANCE ON CAPE COD AND ISLANDS. NORTH-NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL GUST TO 35 KNOTS ALONG THE EASTERN MASS COAST. THE SECOND
CHANCE WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH ALL OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND UNDER THE GUN. CONDITIONS IMPROVE WEDNESDAY TO MVFR CIGS
WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

10 AM UPDATE ... NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. CHOP
SEAS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS WSW WINDS OPPOSE EASTERLY SWELLS
ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS OF RI AND MA. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

======================================================================

LINGERING SWELLS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TODAY. SCA LINGERS FOR
A PORTION OF THE DAY...BUT MAY BE ABLE TO BE DROPPED SOONER.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AN
INCREASE IN THE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD IN
RESPONSE. SCA MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW FOR BUILDING
SEAS IN RESPONSE TO GUSTY WINDS.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...A DEVELOPING GALE CENTER WILL PASS WELL
OFFSHORE SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET...BUT STRONG WINDS WILL EXTEND AN
UNUSUAL DISTANCE OUT FROM THE WEATHER SYSTEM. NORTHEAST WINDS OVER
THE WATERS WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE. THIS WILL BUILD SEAS OF 7 TO
11 FEET ON THE EXPOSED WATERS. A GALE WARNING WILL EVENTUALLY BE
NEEDED FOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ALSO EXPECT REDUCED VSBYS
IN RAIN AND SNOW.

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...A SECOND WEATHER SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND MOVE OUTSIDE NANTUCKET. THIS WILL BRING
ANOTHER PERIOD OF NORTHEAST WINDS WITH GUSTS OVER 25 KNOTS. THERE
REMAIN MANY QUESTIONS ABOUT THIS NEXT SYSTEM...AS WELL AS LOW
POTENTIAL FOR WINDS REACHING 35 KNOTS. SEAS WILL REMAIN AT 7 TO 11
FEET.

WEDNESDAY... WINDS DIMINISH AS THE SECOND COASTAL STORM MOVES OFF.
WIND SPEEDS SHOULD GO BELOW 25 KNOTS. ROUGH SEAS WILL LINGER MUCH OF
THE DAY ESPECIALLY ON THE SOUTHERN EXPOSED WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
MONDAY...

THERE IS A FAIRLY HIGH ASTRO TIDE OF 11.2 IN BOSTON LATE MONDAY
MORNING.  NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS FROM LARGE
CIRCULATION OF THE INTENSIFYING OCEAN STORM WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A
1 TO 1.5 SURGE.  SEAS SHOULD BE BUILT UP TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 FEET
BY THEN...SO FEEL THERE IS A DECENT SHOT FOR POCKETS OF MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING ALONG EASTERN MA COAST.  THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR
POCKETS OF MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING...IF THE STORMS ENDS UP A BIT
FASTER AND TRACKING FURTHER WEST THAN CURRENT GUIDANCE INDICATES.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...

MAIN CONCERN IS IF WE END UP WITH A SECOND AREA OF STRONG LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING UP THE COAST...WHICH COULD IMPACT ADDITIONAL HIGH
TIDE CYCLES. LARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE ON WHETHER OR NOT THIS
HAPPENS.  IF SO...WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE TUESDAY NOON HIGH TIDE
CYCLE ACROSS EASTERN MA AS BOSTON HAS AN 11.5 ASTRO TIDE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ254-
     255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB/NOCERA/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/NOCERA/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/NOCERA/DUNTEN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KALY 061444
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
944 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER OVER THE
WEEKEND. A FAST MOVING...CLIPPER...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS
TO OUR NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON THE LOCAL
AREA. SOME SNOW IS POSSIBLE FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 940 AM EST...SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WERE
OCCURRING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY. MOST
OF THE PRECIPITATION WAS ON THE LIGHT SIDE AND WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THIS AREA INTO THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE INCREASED THE POPS
ACROSS THIS AREA. FURTHER EAST THE PRECIPITATION WAS WEAKENING AS
IT ENCOUNTERS DRIER AIR IN THE HUDSON VALLEY. THE SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL
FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY. SOME MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS ARE SPREADING INTO THE REGION AND WE SHOULD SEE FILTERED
SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS. EVEN WITH THE
FILTERED SUN...TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB TO HIGHS IN THE MID 30S
TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL BE IN CONTROL TONIGHT BUT A COLD
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM CANADA BY DAYBREAK AND THROUGH
THE DAY SUNDAY AS UPPER ENERGY TRACKS EAST THROUGH SE CANADA. MORE
INTERVALS OF HIGH CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS.
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A LITTLE AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT BUT VERY LIGHT WINDS SUNDAY COULD LIMIT MIXING. HIGHS
SUNDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S...SOME 30S IN NORTHERN AREAS.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND OFFSHORE...WITH A GENERAL
CONSENSUS FROM SOURCES OF GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES FOR THE PRIMARY
UPPER ENERGY AND LOW LEVEL FORCING TO TRACK WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF
NEW ENGLAND. THERE ARE STILL SOME UNCERTAINTIES...THOUGH...BECAUSE
DIGGING...TRAILING...STRONG NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY MAY HAVE SOME
INFLUENCE IN HOW FAR NORTH AND WEST THE STEADIER PRECIPITATION
GETS...DEPENDING ON ITS INFLUENCE ON THE TRACK OF THE SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM...IF AT ALL.

ALSO...AS THE COASTAL SYSTEM DEVELOPS...THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT THERE COULD BE A SOMEWHAT LONG FETCH OF EASTERLY
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OFF THE OCEAN INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. WHICH
COULD RESULT IN A MORE EXPANDED PRECIPITATION SHIELD. LOTS OF
IFS...WHICH AGAIN ILLUSTRATES THE UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT. AT THE
VERY LEAST...THE DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY AND MOISTURE FROM
THE GREAT LAKES COULD BRING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT TO THE REGION. TIME WILL TELL HOW
EVERYTHING SORTS OUT IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

SO...GENERALLY BECOMING CLOUDY SUNDAY NIGHT AND STAYING MAINLY
CLOUDY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. ON MONDAY...INDICATING HIGH
CHANCES BORDERING ON LIKELY FOR SNOW IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
NW CT. SMALLER CHANCES TO THE SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN VT
WITH SLIGHT CHANCES A LITTLE NORTH AND WEST OF THOSE AREAS. BY
MONDAY NIGHT...MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE HIGH CHANCES FOR SNOW. HIGHS
MONDAY IN THE LOWER 30S NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 30S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MORE WINTER LIKE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE LONG TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST...WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING FROM NEAR
NORMAL ON TUESDAY TO BELOW NORMAL TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
THERE WILL BE MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS
DURING THE PERIOD AS WELL.

THE PERIOD STARTS OUT ON TUESDAY WITH A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN
ACROSS THE CONUS AND A SPRAWLING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATING SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT WILL SPAWN A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THERE
IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE EVENTUAL STRENGTH OF
THIS SYSTEM...AS IT MAY NOT HAVE MUCH BAROCLINICITY TO WORK WITH.
THIS WILL STILL BE A SYSTEM TO KEEP AN EYE ON...AS DEPENDING ON THE
EXACT TRACK COULD BRING AT LEAST A LIGHT SNOWFALL TO PARTS OF THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. WILL
MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR NOW...WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS ANY
SNOWFALL WILL BE LIGHT...HOWEVER THERE ARE SEVERAL FACTORS THAT MAY
ALLOW THE STORM TO TAKE A MORE WESTERLY TRACK WHICH WOULD RESULT IN
GREATER SNOWFALL. STAY TUNED.

BY WEDNESDAY ANY POTENTIAL STORM SHOULD BE WELL OFFSHORE AND FAR
NORTH AND EAST OF OUR REGION. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVING
THROUGH ALONG WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT LOOKS POISED TO CROSS OUR
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT...WHILE THE
MAIN STORY WILL BE MUCH COLDER ARCTIC AIR SURGING SOUTHWARD INTO THE
REGION.

A SMALL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MAY BRIEFLY BUILD IN THURSDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE THE NEXT POTENTIALLY STRONG ARCTIC FRONT COULD USHER
IN THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON THUS FAR STARTING LATE FRIDAY. WE
ARE STILL ABOUT A WEEK AWAY FROM THIS...BUT WILL NOTE THE GFS/ECMWF
HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH SHOWING SUB-500 DECAMETER THICKNESS
VALUES OVER THE REGION BY THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE KALB/KPOU/KPSF/KGFL TERMINALS
THROUGH THE 24 HOUR PERIOD ENDING 12Z SUNDAY. SKIES STARTING OUT
MOSTLY CLEAR OR PARTLY CLOUDY EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE LATER IN THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED. CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE AFTER DARK AS A WEAK RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 5-10 KTS...BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER DARK.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO CONCERNS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS AS ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT OR IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

THE THIRD WINTER SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE SEASON WAS ISSUED
ON FEBRUARY 4TH.

HIGHLIGHTS...REFER TO THE PRODUCTS FOR DETAILS (ALBESFALY):

DUE TO BELOW NORMAL SNOW COVER AND RIVER ICE...POTENTIAL FOR
SNOWMELT AND ICE JAM FLOODING IS LOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

ALTHOUGH WATER SUPPLY LEVELS ARE NOT A CONCERN AT THE MOMENT...THERE
IS CURRENTLY VERY LITTLE SNOW WATER AVAILABLE FOR RESERVOIR RECHARGE
ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. IT WILL TAKE A STEADY SUPPLY OF RAIN AND
SNOW THROUGH SPRING INTO SUMMER FOR RESERVOIRS TO MAINTAIN ADEQUATE
LEVELS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...11/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...NAS




000
FXUS61 KALY 061444
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
944 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER OVER THE
WEEKEND. A FAST MOVING...CLIPPER...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS
TO OUR NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON THE LOCAL
AREA. SOME SNOW IS POSSIBLE FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 940 AM EST...SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WERE
OCCURRING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY. MOST
OF THE PRECIPITATION WAS ON THE LIGHT SIDE AND WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THIS AREA INTO THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE INCREASED THE POPS
ACROSS THIS AREA. FURTHER EAST THE PRECIPITATION WAS WEAKENING AS
IT ENCOUNTERS DRIER AIR IN THE HUDSON VALLEY. THE SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL
FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY. SOME MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS ARE SPREADING INTO THE REGION AND WE SHOULD SEE FILTERED
SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS. EVEN WITH THE
FILTERED SUN...TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB TO HIGHS IN THE MID 30S
TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL BE IN CONTROL TONIGHT BUT A COLD
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM CANADA BY DAYBREAK AND THROUGH
THE DAY SUNDAY AS UPPER ENERGY TRACKS EAST THROUGH SE CANADA. MORE
INTERVALS OF HIGH CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS.
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A LITTLE AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT BUT VERY LIGHT WINDS SUNDAY COULD LIMIT MIXING. HIGHS
SUNDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S...SOME 30S IN NORTHERN AREAS.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND OFFSHORE...WITH A GENERAL
CONSENSUS FROM SOURCES OF GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES FOR THE PRIMARY
UPPER ENERGY AND LOW LEVEL FORCING TO TRACK WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF
NEW ENGLAND. THERE ARE STILL SOME UNCERTAINTIES...THOUGH...BECAUSE
DIGGING...TRAILING...STRONG NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY MAY HAVE SOME
INFLUENCE IN HOW FAR NORTH AND WEST THE STEADIER PRECIPITATION
GETS...DEPENDING ON ITS INFLUENCE ON THE TRACK OF THE SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM...IF AT ALL.

ALSO...AS THE COASTAL SYSTEM DEVELOPS...THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT THERE COULD BE A SOMEWHAT LONG FETCH OF EASTERLY
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OFF THE OCEAN INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. WHICH
COULD RESULT IN A MORE EXPANDED PRECIPITATION SHIELD. LOTS OF
IFS...WHICH AGAIN ILLUSTRATES THE UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT. AT THE
VERY LEAST...THE DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY AND MOISTURE FROM
THE GREAT LAKES COULD BRING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT TO THE REGION. TIME WILL TELL HOW
EVERYTHING SORTS OUT IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

SO...GENERALLY BECOMING CLOUDY SUNDAY NIGHT AND STAYING MAINLY
CLOUDY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. ON MONDAY...INDICATING HIGH
CHANCES BORDERING ON LIKELY FOR SNOW IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
NW CT. SMALLER CHANCES TO THE SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN VT
WITH SLIGHT CHANCES A LITTLE NORTH AND WEST OF THOSE AREAS. BY
MONDAY NIGHT...MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE HIGH CHANCES FOR SNOW. HIGHS
MONDAY IN THE LOWER 30S NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 30S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MORE WINTER LIKE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE LONG TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST...WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING FROM NEAR
NORMAL ON TUESDAY TO BELOW NORMAL TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
THERE WILL BE MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS
DURING THE PERIOD AS WELL.

THE PERIOD STARTS OUT ON TUESDAY WITH A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN
ACROSS THE CONUS AND A SPRAWLING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATING SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT WILL SPAWN A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THERE
IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE EVENTUAL STRENGTH OF
THIS SYSTEM...AS IT MAY NOT HAVE MUCH BAROCLINICITY TO WORK WITH.
THIS WILL STILL BE A SYSTEM TO KEEP AN EYE ON...AS DEPENDING ON THE
EXACT TRACK COULD BRING AT LEAST A LIGHT SNOWFALL TO PARTS OF THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. WILL
MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR NOW...WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS ANY
SNOWFALL WILL BE LIGHT...HOWEVER THERE ARE SEVERAL FACTORS THAT MAY
ALLOW THE STORM TO TAKE A MORE WESTERLY TRACK WHICH WOULD RESULT IN
GREATER SNOWFALL. STAY TUNED.

BY WEDNESDAY ANY POTENTIAL STORM SHOULD BE WELL OFFSHORE AND FAR
NORTH AND EAST OF OUR REGION. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVING
THROUGH ALONG WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT LOOKS POISED TO CROSS OUR
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT...WHILE THE
MAIN STORY WILL BE MUCH COLDER ARCTIC AIR SURGING SOUTHWARD INTO THE
REGION.

A SMALL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MAY BRIEFLY BUILD IN THURSDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE THE NEXT POTENTIALLY STRONG ARCTIC FRONT COULD USHER
IN THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON THUS FAR STARTING LATE FRIDAY. WE
ARE STILL ABOUT A WEEK AWAY FROM THIS...BUT WILL NOTE THE GFS/ECMWF
HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH SHOWING SUB-500 DECAMETER THICKNESS
VALUES OVER THE REGION BY THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE KALB/KPOU/KPSF/KGFL TERMINALS
THROUGH THE 24 HOUR PERIOD ENDING 12Z SUNDAY. SKIES STARTING OUT
MOSTLY CLEAR OR PARTLY CLOUDY EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE LATER IN THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED. CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE AFTER DARK AS A WEAK RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 5-10 KTS...BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER DARK.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO CONCERNS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS AS ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT OR IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

THE THIRD WINTER SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE SEASON WAS ISSUED
ON FEBRUARY 4TH.

HIGHLIGHTS...REFER TO THE PRODUCTS FOR DETAILS (ALBESFALY):

DUE TO BELOW NORMAL SNOW COVER AND RIVER ICE...POTENTIAL FOR
SNOWMELT AND ICE JAM FLOODING IS LOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

ALTHOUGH WATER SUPPLY LEVELS ARE NOT A CONCERN AT THE MOMENT...THERE
IS CURRENTLY VERY LITTLE SNOW WATER AVAILABLE FOR RESERVOIR RECHARGE
ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. IT WILL TAKE A STEADY SUPPLY OF RAIN AND
SNOW THROUGH SPRING INTO SUMMER FOR RESERVOIRS TO MAINTAIN ADEQUATE
LEVELS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...11/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...NAS




000
FXUS61 KOKX 061430
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
930 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH TODAY AND TONIGHT. DEEP LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK OVER THE ATLANTIC LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AN
ACTIVE WINTER PATTERN WILL THEN SET UP OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN JUST TO OUR
SOUTH.

A FILTERED SUNSHINE THROUGH HIGH CLOUDS AND WEAK WAA ON SW WINDS
WILL HELP TEMPS RISE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
SFC HIGH REMAINS NEARBY TONIGHT BUT SHOULD YIELD TO DEVELOPING
AND DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY. TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES MOVES OFF THE SE COAST SUNDAY
AS NEXT NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH
SFC LOW MOVING TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION. DRY WEATHER
CONTINUES WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS AT MOST DURING THIS TIME.

TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD FALL CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS. SOME
RADIATIONAL COOLING COULD TAKE PLACE WITH SNOW PACK AND MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES...BUT LIGHT SW WIND FLOW MAY PREVENT IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING FROM OCCURRING.

ON SUNDAY...TEMPS RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S...SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CHALLENGING FORECAST WITH MANY FEATURES IN PLAY.
ONCE AGAIN...SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVES OFF THE SE
COAST...DRIVING DEEP SFC LOW OFFSHORE...PASSING SOMEWHERE SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE BENCHMARK. THEN LARGE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST...AND YET ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...THIS ONE MUCH CLOSER TO THE AREA.

CONCERN FOR EVENTUAL PLACEMENT OF FIRST LOW OFFSHORE...FOLLOWED
BY NEXT LOW AND TRACK TUESDAY. LARGE MODEL/ENSEMBLE SPREADS ON
QPF/SNOW.

BASED ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...NAM AND SREF MUCH WETTER MONDAY
AS LOW TRACKS FURTHER NORTHWARD COMPARED TO GFS/ECMWF...AND QPF
SHIELD EXTENDS MUCH FURTHER NORTHWESTWARD...OVER THE FORECAST
AREA.

HAVE DECIDED TO NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...WHICH
IS SUPPORTED BY WPC AND LATEST MODELS BLEND SUITE. WOULD EXPECT
PRECIP TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH MONDAY ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
LOW.

EVEN IF THAT DOES NOT OCCUR...LIFT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
TROUGH SHOULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT SNOW BEFORE NEXT
LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.

AS THE INITIAL SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH PIVOTS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST AND DEPARTS TO THE EAST...AND NEXT TROUGH APPROACHES AND
SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...WE COULD BE
LOOKING AT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOW FROM MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW IS QUITE POSSIBLE. CANNOT THOUGH
RULE OUT POSSIBLE HEAVIER QPF IF INGREDIENTS COME TOGETHER FOR
SUCH.

HAVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH SNOW AT TIMES
MAY VERY WELL OCCUR MONDAY THRU WED. HOWEVER...HAVE MUCH
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN EXACT DETAILS AND WHERE ANY HEAVIER SNOW
BANDS SET UP. STAY TUNED.

ARCTIC AIR STILL LOOKS POISED FOR THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF USHERS
IT IN WITH A CLIPPER FRI WHICH WOULD BRING MORE SNOW CHCS.
IN SUMMARY...THERE ARE CHCS FOR PCPN IN EVERY PERIOD OF THE
EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH TODAY AND GRADUALLY WEAKENS
TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND
FORECAST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SUNDAY...VFR.
.SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...CHC SUB-VFR AND SNOW...ESPECIALLY EAST OF
CITY. CHC NE GUSTS AROUND 25KT.
.TUESDAY...SUB-VFR WITH SNOW LIKELY...POSSIBLY MIXED PTYPE DURING
THE AFTN AT THE COAST...TAPERING OFF LATE IN THE DAY.
.WEDNESDAY...CHC SUB-VFR WITH -SHSN. NW GUST AROUND 25KT.

&&

.MARINE...

SUB-ADVSY CONDS WILL PREVAIL ON ALL WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH. WINDS GUSTS AROUND 20 KT LIKELY LATE
TODAY INTO THIS EVENING...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 4 FT ON
THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS.

AN AREA OF LOW PRES DEVELOPS OFF THE SE COAST SUNDAY...INTENSIFYING
AS IT TRACKS NE. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SUN NIGHT WITH
GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE BEST CHC FOR GALES
CURRENTLY EXISTS ON THE OCEAN WATERS AND EASTERN LI SOUND/BAYS SO
HAVE ISSUED A GALE WATCH FOR THESE ZONES. THE STRONG WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY MON. OTHERWISE...SCA
LIKELY DURING THIS TIME.

SCA IS THEN LIKELY ON MOST OF THE WATERS INTO TUE AS A WEAKER LOW
PRES SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PASS CLOSER TO THE LOCAL AREA. WINDS
THEN DECREASE TEMPORARILY TUE NIGHT...ALTHOUGH SEAS ON THE OCEAN
WILL REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT...BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN ON WED FROM A
TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THRU
MON...AND AGAIN DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MOST IF NOT ALL OF
THE PCPN THAT FALLS LIKELY TO BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW ATTM.

WIDESPREAD PCPN IS POSSIBLE LATE SUN NGT THRU MON...AND AGAIN DURING
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE PCPN THAT FALLS
LIKELY TO BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW ATTM.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEW MOON ON MONDAY AND POTENTIAL FOR NERLY
WINDS MONDAY AND TUE...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TIDES FOR POSSIBLE MINOR
CSTL FLOODING.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ330-340-350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PW
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...JMC/PW
AVIATION...24
MARINE...24
HYDROLOGY...PW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KOKX 061159
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
659 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH TODAY AND TONIGHT. DEEP LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK OVER THE ATLANTIC LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AN
ACTIVE WINTER PATTERN WILL THEN SET UP OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE DAY...SUNSHINE AND WEAK WAA WILL HELP
TEMPS RISE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS.

DO EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...POSSIBLY FILTERED THROUGH HIGH
CLOUDS AT TIMES THROUGH THE DAY.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND WINDS WILL
TURN TOWARD THE WEST/SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
SFC HIGH REMAINS NEARBY TONIGHT BUT SHOULD YIELD TO DEVELOPING
AND DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY. TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES MOVES OFF THE SE COAST SUNDAY
AS NEXT NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH
SFC LOW MOVING TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION. DRY WEATHER
CONTINUES WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS AT MOST DURING THIS TIME.

TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD FALL CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS. SOME
RADIATIONAL COOLING COULD TAKE PLACE WITH SNOW PACK AND MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES...BUT LIGHT SW WIND FLOW MAY PREVENT IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING FROM OCCURRING.

ON SUNDAY...TEMPS RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S...SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CHALLENGING FORECAST WITH MANY FEATURES IN PLAY.
ONCE AGAIN...SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVES OFF THE SE
COAST...DRIVING DEEP SFC LOW OFFSHORE...PASSING SOMEWHERE SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE BENCHMARK. THEN LARGE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST...AND YET ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...THIS ONE MUCH CLOSER TO THE AREA.

CONCERN FOR EVENTUAL PLACEMENT OF FIRST LOW OFFSHORE...FOLLOWED
BY NEXT LOW AND TRACK TUESDAY. LARGE MODEL/ENSEMBLE SPREADS ON
QPF/SNOW.

BASED ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...NAM AND SREF MUCH WETTER MONDAY
AS LOW TRACKS FURTHER NORTHWARD COMPARED TO GFS/ECMWF...AND QPF
SHIELD EXTENDS MUCH FURTHER NORTHWESTWARD...OVER THE FORECAST
AREA.

HAVE DECIDED TO NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...WHICH
IS SUPPORTED BY WPC AND LATEST MODELS BLEND SUITE. WOULD EXPECT
PRECIP TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH MONDAY ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
LOW.

EVEN IF THAT DOES NOT OCCUR...LIFT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
TROUGH SHOULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT SNOW BEFORE NEXT
LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.

AS THE INITIAL SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH PIVOTS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST AND DEPARTS TO THE EAST...AND NEXT TROUGH APPROACHES AND
SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...WE COULD BE
LOOKING AT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOW FROM MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW IS QUITE POSSIBLE. CANNOT THOUGH
RULE OUT POSSIBLE HEAVIER QPF IF INGREDIENTS COME TOGETHER FOR
SUCH.

HAVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH SNOW AT TIMES
MAY VERY WELL OCCUR MONDAY THRU WED. HOWEVER...HAVE MUCH
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN EXACT DETAILS AND WHERE ANY HEAVIER SNOW
BANDS SET UP. STAY TUNED.

ARCTIC AIR STILL LOOKS POISED FOR THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF USHERS
IT IN WITH A CLIPPER FRI WHICH WOULD BRING MORE SNOW CHCS.
IN SUMMARY...THERE ARE CHCS FOR PCPN IN EVERY PERIOD OF THE
EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH TODAY AND GRADUALLY WEAKENS
TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND
FORECAST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SUNDAY...VFR.
.SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...CHC SUB-VFR AND SNOW...ESPECIALLY EAST OF
CITY. CHC NE GUSTS AROUND 25KT.
.TUESDAY...SUB-VFR WITH SNOW LIKELY...POSSIBLY MIXED PTYPE DURING
THE AFTN AT THE COAST...TAPERING OFF LATE IN THE DAY.
.WEDNESDAY...CHC SUB-VFR WITH -SHSN. NW GUST AROUND 25KT.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS HAVE FALLEN BELOW ADVSY LEVELS...SO HAVE CANCELLED
THE SCA ON THE OCEAN. SUB-ADVSY CONDS WILL PREVAIL ON ALL WATERS
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH. THE HIGH WEAKENS
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRES DEVELOPS OFF THE SE
COAST INTENSIFYING AS IT TRACKS NE. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
SUN NIGHT WITH GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE BEST
CHC FOR GALES CURRENTLY EXISTS ON THE OCEAN WATERS AND EASTERN LI
SOUND/BAYS SO HAVE ISSUED A GALE WATCH FOR THESE ZONES. THE STRONG
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY MON.
OTHERWISE...SCA LIKELY DURING THIS TIME.

SCA IS THEN LIKELY ON MOST OF THE WATERS INTO TUE AS A WEAKER LOW
PRES SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PASS CLOSER TO THE LOCAL AREA. WINDS
THEN DECREASE TEMPORARILY TUE NIGHT...ALTHOUGH SEAS ON THE OCEAN
WILL REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT...BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN ON WED FROM A
TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THRU
MON...AND AGAIN DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MOST IF NOT ALL OF
THE PCPN THAT FALLS LIKELY TO BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW ATTM.

WIDESPREAD PCPN IS POSSIBLE LATE SUN NGT THRU MON...AND AGAIN DURING
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE PCPN THAT FALLS
LIKELY TO BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW ATTM.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEW MOON ON MONDAY AND POTENTIAL FOR NERLY
WINDS MONDAY AND TUE...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TIDES FOR POSSIBLE MINOR
CSTL FLOODING.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ330-340-350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PW
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...JMC/PW
AVIATION...24
MARINE...24
HYDROLOGY...PW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KOKX 061159
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
659 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH TODAY AND TONIGHT. DEEP LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK OVER THE ATLANTIC LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AN
ACTIVE WINTER PATTERN WILL THEN SET UP OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE DAY...SUNSHINE AND WEAK WAA WILL HELP
TEMPS RISE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS.

DO EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...POSSIBLY FILTERED THROUGH HIGH
CLOUDS AT TIMES THROUGH THE DAY.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND WINDS WILL
TURN TOWARD THE WEST/SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
SFC HIGH REMAINS NEARBY TONIGHT BUT SHOULD YIELD TO DEVELOPING
AND DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY. TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES MOVES OFF THE SE COAST SUNDAY
AS NEXT NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH
SFC LOW MOVING TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION. DRY WEATHER
CONTINUES WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS AT MOST DURING THIS TIME.

TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD FALL CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS. SOME
RADIATIONAL COOLING COULD TAKE PLACE WITH SNOW PACK AND MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES...BUT LIGHT SW WIND FLOW MAY PREVENT IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING FROM OCCURRING.

ON SUNDAY...TEMPS RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S...SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CHALLENGING FORECAST WITH MANY FEATURES IN PLAY.
ONCE AGAIN...SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVES OFF THE SE
COAST...DRIVING DEEP SFC LOW OFFSHORE...PASSING SOMEWHERE SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE BENCHMARK. THEN LARGE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST...AND YET ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...THIS ONE MUCH CLOSER TO THE AREA.

CONCERN FOR EVENTUAL PLACEMENT OF FIRST LOW OFFSHORE...FOLLOWED
BY NEXT LOW AND TRACK TUESDAY. LARGE MODEL/ENSEMBLE SPREADS ON
QPF/SNOW.

BASED ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...NAM AND SREF MUCH WETTER MONDAY
AS LOW TRACKS FURTHER NORTHWARD COMPARED TO GFS/ECMWF...AND QPF
SHIELD EXTENDS MUCH FURTHER NORTHWESTWARD...OVER THE FORECAST
AREA.

HAVE DECIDED TO NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...WHICH
IS SUPPORTED BY WPC AND LATEST MODELS BLEND SUITE. WOULD EXPECT
PRECIP TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH MONDAY ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
LOW.

EVEN IF THAT DOES NOT OCCUR...LIFT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
TROUGH SHOULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT SNOW BEFORE NEXT
LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.

AS THE INITIAL SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH PIVOTS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST AND DEPARTS TO THE EAST...AND NEXT TROUGH APPROACHES AND
SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...WE COULD BE
LOOKING AT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOW FROM MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW IS QUITE POSSIBLE. CANNOT THOUGH
RULE OUT POSSIBLE HEAVIER QPF IF INGREDIENTS COME TOGETHER FOR
SUCH.

HAVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH SNOW AT TIMES
MAY VERY WELL OCCUR MONDAY THRU WED. HOWEVER...HAVE MUCH
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN EXACT DETAILS AND WHERE ANY HEAVIER SNOW
BANDS SET UP. STAY TUNED.

ARCTIC AIR STILL LOOKS POISED FOR THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF USHERS
IT IN WITH A CLIPPER FRI WHICH WOULD BRING MORE SNOW CHCS.
IN SUMMARY...THERE ARE CHCS FOR PCPN IN EVERY PERIOD OF THE
EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH TODAY AND GRADUALLY WEAKENS
TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND
FORECAST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SUNDAY...VFR.
.SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...CHC SUB-VFR AND SNOW...ESPECIALLY EAST OF
CITY. CHC NE GUSTS AROUND 25KT.
.TUESDAY...SUB-VFR WITH SNOW LIKELY...POSSIBLY MIXED PTYPE DURING
THE AFTN AT THE COAST...TAPERING OFF LATE IN THE DAY.
.WEDNESDAY...CHC SUB-VFR WITH -SHSN. NW GUST AROUND 25KT.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS HAVE FALLEN BELOW ADVSY LEVELS...SO HAVE CANCELLED
THE SCA ON THE OCEAN. SUB-ADVSY CONDS WILL PREVAIL ON ALL WATERS
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH. THE HIGH WEAKENS
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRES DEVELOPS OFF THE SE
COAST INTENSIFYING AS IT TRACKS NE. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
SUN NIGHT WITH GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE BEST
CHC FOR GALES CURRENTLY EXISTS ON THE OCEAN WATERS AND EASTERN LI
SOUND/BAYS SO HAVE ISSUED A GALE WATCH FOR THESE ZONES. THE STRONG
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY MON.
OTHERWISE...SCA LIKELY DURING THIS TIME.

SCA IS THEN LIKELY ON MOST OF THE WATERS INTO TUE AS A WEAKER LOW
PRES SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PASS CLOSER TO THE LOCAL AREA. WINDS
THEN DECREASE TEMPORARILY TUE NIGHT...ALTHOUGH SEAS ON THE OCEAN
WILL REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT...BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN ON WED FROM A
TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THRU
MON...AND AGAIN DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MOST IF NOT ALL OF
THE PCPN THAT FALLS LIKELY TO BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW ATTM.

WIDESPREAD PCPN IS POSSIBLE LATE SUN NGT THRU MON...AND AGAIN DURING
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE PCPN THAT FALLS
LIKELY TO BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW ATTM.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEW MOON ON MONDAY AND POTENTIAL FOR NERLY
WINDS MONDAY AND TUE...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TIDES FOR POSSIBLE MINOR
CSTL FLOODING.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ330-340-350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PW
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...JMC/PW
AVIATION...24
MARINE...24
HYDROLOGY...PW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KOKX 061159
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
659 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH TODAY AND TONIGHT. DEEP LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK OVER THE ATLANTIC LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AN
ACTIVE WINTER PATTERN WILL THEN SET UP OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE DAY...SUNSHINE AND WEAK WAA WILL HELP
TEMPS RISE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS.

DO EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...POSSIBLY FILTERED THROUGH HIGH
CLOUDS AT TIMES THROUGH THE DAY.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND WINDS WILL
TURN TOWARD THE WEST/SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
SFC HIGH REMAINS NEARBY TONIGHT BUT SHOULD YIELD TO DEVELOPING
AND DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY. TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES MOVES OFF THE SE COAST SUNDAY
AS NEXT NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH
SFC LOW MOVING TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION. DRY WEATHER
CONTINUES WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS AT MOST DURING THIS TIME.

TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD FALL CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS. SOME
RADIATIONAL COOLING COULD TAKE PLACE WITH SNOW PACK AND MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES...BUT LIGHT SW WIND FLOW MAY PREVENT IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING FROM OCCURRING.

ON SUNDAY...TEMPS RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S...SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CHALLENGING FORECAST WITH MANY FEATURES IN PLAY.
ONCE AGAIN...SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVES OFF THE SE
COAST...DRIVING DEEP SFC LOW OFFSHORE...PASSING SOMEWHERE SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE BENCHMARK. THEN LARGE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST...AND YET ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...THIS ONE MUCH CLOSER TO THE AREA.

CONCERN FOR EVENTUAL PLACEMENT OF FIRST LOW OFFSHORE...FOLLOWED
BY NEXT LOW AND TRACK TUESDAY. LARGE MODEL/ENSEMBLE SPREADS ON
QPF/SNOW.

BASED ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...NAM AND SREF MUCH WETTER MONDAY
AS LOW TRACKS FURTHER NORTHWARD COMPARED TO GFS/ECMWF...AND QPF
SHIELD EXTENDS MUCH FURTHER NORTHWESTWARD...OVER THE FORECAST
AREA.

HAVE DECIDED TO NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...WHICH
IS SUPPORTED BY WPC AND LATEST MODELS BLEND SUITE. WOULD EXPECT
PRECIP TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH MONDAY ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
LOW.

EVEN IF THAT DOES NOT OCCUR...LIFT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
TROUGH SHOULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT SNOW BEFORE NEXT
LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.

AS THE INITIAL SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH PIVOTS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST AND DEPARTS TO THE EAST...AND NEXT TROUGH APPROACHES AND
SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...WE COULD BE
LOOKING AT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOW FROM MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW IS QUITE POSSIBLE. CANNOT THOUGH
RULE OUT POSSIBLE HEAVIER QPF IF INGREDIENTS COME TOGETHER FOR
SUCH.

HAVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH SNOW AT TIMES
MAY VERY WELL OCCUR MONDAY THRU WED. HOWEVER...HAVE MUCH
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN EXACT DETAILS AND WHERE ANY HEAVIER SNOW
BANDS SET UP. STAY TUNED.

ARCTIC AIR STILL LOOKS POISED FOR THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF USHERS
IT IN WITH A CLIPPER FRI WHICH WOULD BRING MORE SNOW CHCS.
IN SUMMARY...THERE ARE CHCS FOR PCPN IN EVERY PERIOD OF THE
EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH TODAY AND GRADUALLY WEAKENS
TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND
FORECAST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SUNDAY...VFR.
.SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...CHC SUB-VFR AND SNOW...ESPECIALLY EAST OF
CITY. CHC NE GUSTS AROUND 25KT.
.TUESDAY...SUB-VFR WITH SNOW LIKELY...POSSIBLY MIXED PTYPE DURING
THE AFTN AT THE COAST...TAPERING OFF LATE IN THE DAY.
.WEDNESDAY...CHC SUB-VFR WITH -SHSN. NW GUST AROUND 25KT.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS HAVE FALLEN BELOW ADVSY LEVELS...SO HAVE CANCELLED
THE SCA ON THE OCEAN. SUB-ADVSY CONDS WILL PREVAIL ON ALL WATERS
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH. THE HIGH WEAKENS
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRES DEVELOPS OFF THE SE
COAST INTENSIFYING AS IT TRACKS NE. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
SUN NIGHT WITH GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE BEST
CHC FOR GALES CURRENTLY EXISTS ON THE OCEAN WATERS AND EASTERN LI
SOUND/BAYS SO HAVE ISSUED A GALE WATCH FOR THESE ZONES. THE STRONG
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY MON.
OTHERWISE...SCA LIKELY DURING THIS TIME.

SCA IS THEN LIKELY ON MOST OF THE WATERS INTO TUE AS A WEAKER LOW
PRES SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PASS CLOSER TO THE LOCAL AREA. WINDS
THEN DECREASE TEMPORARILY TUE NIGHT...ALTHOUGH SEAS ON THE OCEAN
WILL REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT...BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN ON WED FROM A
TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THRU
MON...AND AGAIN DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MOST IF NOT ALL OF
THE PCPN THAT FALLS LIKELY TO BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW ATTM.

WIDESPREAD PCPN IS POSSIBLE LATE SUN NGT THRU MON...AND AGAIN DURING
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE PCPN THAT FALLS
LIKELY TO BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW ATTM.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEW MOON ON MONDAY AND POTENTIAL FOR NERLY
WINDS MONDAY AND TUE...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TIDES FOR POSSIBLE MINOR
CSTL FLOODING.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ330-340-350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PW
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...JMC/PW
AVIATION...24
MARINE...24
HYDROLOGY...PW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 061128
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
628 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY WEATHER THIS WEEKEND WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY. TWO DEVELOPING COASTAL STORMS MAY BRING
ACCUMULATING SNOW ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN
MA. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT BRINGS MUCH CHILLIER AIR FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

630 AM UPDATE...

PATCHY CLOUDS OVER THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES. OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN USA WILL BRING FAIR SKIES THROUGH
THE DAY. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO SET UP OVER THE REGION
TODAY. A PASSING HIGH TO OUR SOUTH WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE REGION FOR THIS AFTERNOON. ANTICIPATE GUSTS BETWEEN 15-20
MPH. WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL WILL ALSO BRING SOME MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA RESULTING IN A FILTERED SUNSHINE. GUIDANCE DOES
INDICATE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S BUT WITH THE FRESH
SNOW PACK THAT MAY BE A BIT TO OPTIMISTIC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINLY DOMINATE RESULTING IN QUIET WEATHER.
HOWEVER PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE SLOW TO RELAX WHICH WILL LIMIT
RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT. TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE 20S WITH
PERHAPS LOW READINGS IN AREAS WHERE THE WIND WILL BE CALM.

SUNDAY...

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH WILL DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION ON SUNDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BE DRY BUT MAY BRING IN SOME
CLOUDS. WESTERLY FLOW WILL DOMINATE IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM IN TO THE 40S. HELP AID IN MELTING
SOME OF THE SNOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...

LONGWAVE PATTERN SHOWS RIDGE WEST/TROUGH EAST AS BEFORE...WITH
INCREASING AMPLITUDE EARLY WEEK AND DECREASING AMPLITUDE LATE WEEK.
OVERALL A COLD AND UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  AT
SHORTER WAVE SCALES WE SEE THREE SHORTWAVES AFFECTING THE PATTERN.
THE FIRST IS IN THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY AND GENERATES COASTAL
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINAS SUNDAY. THIS SWINGS WIDE OF OUR
AREA...CROSSING ABOUT 4 DEGREES SOUTH OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK...AND
THEN SWEEPS NORTHEAST JUST SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA. THE SECOND
SHORTWAVE IS MOVING ASHORE IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND WILL CARVE A
DEEP COLD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN USA DURING THE EARLY WEEK.  THE
THIRD SHORTWAVE IS ALONG THE ARCTIC OCEAN COASTLINE AND WILL DROP
SOUTH INTO THE USA MIDWEEK.

OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE MASS FIELDS ARE SIMILAR ON THE BROAD SCALE MOST
OF THE PERIOD. BUT THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS...ESPECIALLY
REGARDING THE SECOND SHORTWAVE AND ITS DEVELOPING COASTAL SYSTEM
TUESDAY. THIS SECOND SHORTWAVE WAS JUST COMING ASHORE AT MEASUREMENT
TIME LAST NIGHT. THE 12Z SATURDAY MODELS SHOULD HAVE A BETTER READ
ON THE SHORTWAVE AND ITS EFFECTS. WE CONTINUE TO FAVOR A MODEL BLEND
ESPECIALLY USING THE GFS AND ECMWF.

THE DAILIES...

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY... COASTAL STORM PASSES WELL OFFSHORE...SOME 4
DEGREES SOUTH OF THE BENCHMARK. NORMALLY THAT WOULD MEAN A SWING AND
A MISS FOR STRIKE THREE. BUT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM QUEBEC
AND ESTABLISHES A PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT SHOULD BRING A NORTHEAST
MARINE FLOW WITH DELTA OF 13-15C. THIS SHOULD AT LEAST BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY. LESS CONFIDENCE ON PCPN
GIVEN MEDIOCRE FORCING AND CHANGING RUN-TO-RUN AMOUNTS.

MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON QPF DURING MONDAY WITH MAIN FOCUS ON CAPE
AND ISLANDS...POSSIBLY EASTERN MASS. WE HAVE BACKED OFF ONSET OF
POPS UNTIL 06-12Z MONDAY AND VALUE OF POPS BY ABOUT 20 PERCENT. THIS
STILL BRINGS POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES IN EASTERN MASS WITH
HIGHEST AMOUNTS CAPE COD/PLYMOUTH CO AREA.

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY... SECOND SHORTWAVE DIGS OVER THE MIDWEST WITH
SURFACE LOW REDEVELOPMENT ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS NEW
COASTAL LOW THEN MOVES PAST NEW ENGLAND. BETTER DYNAMICS AND
RESULTING LIFT SHOULD BE IN PLACE AND WITH DEEPER MOISTURE WOULD
EXPECT THIS TO BE A BETTER CHANCE OF PCPN THAN THE MONDAY OFFSHORE
SYSTEM. BUT THE RESPONSIBLE SHORTWAVE IS JUST NOW MOVING ASHORE AS
NOTED ABOVE. SO STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND ITS
POTENTIAL. WE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... UPPER TROUGH WITH ITS COLD POOL ALOFT
AND CLOUD SHIELD LINGER WEDNESDAY. THE ARCTIC SHORTWAVE THEN SWINGS
THROUGH ON THURSDAY. EXPECT QUITE A FEW CLOUDS DURING THIS PERIOD
WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. CLIPPER LOW THEN DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM
NORTHERN ONTARIO FRIDAY AND BRINGING MORE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS. MIXED LAYER REACHES EITHER SIDE OF 925 MB EACH DAY...A
LITTLE HIGHER THURSDAY BEHIND THE ARCTIC SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE
FRONT. TEMPS ALOFT AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER SUPPORT 30S
WEDNESDAY...20S WEST/32 EAST THURSDAY...AND 20S TO NEAR 30 FRIDAY.
AS NOTED EARLIER...COLD AND UNSETTLED.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. WINDS SHIFT TO THE SW. A FEW GUSTS
BETWEEN 15-20 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

TWO POTENTIAL STORMS DURING THIS PERIOD...EITHER COULD BRING
IFR/LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN SNOW. THE FIRST CHANCE FOR THIS WILL BE
MONDAY...WITH BEST CHANCE ON CAPE COD AND ISLANDS. NORTH-NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL GUST TO 35 KNOTS ALONG THE EASTERN MASS COAST. THE SECOND
CHANCE WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH ALL OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND UNDER THE GUN. CONDITIONS IMPROVE WEDNESDAY TO MVFR CIGS
WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

LINGERING SWELLS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TODAY. SCA LINGERS FOR
A PORTION OF THE DAY...BUT MAY BE ABLE TO BE DROPPED SOONER.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AN
INCREASE IN THE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD IN
RESPONSE. SCA MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW FOR BUILDING
SEAS IN RESPONSE TO GUSTY WINDS.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...A DEVELOPING GALE CENTER WILL PASS WELL
OFFSHORE SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET...BUT STRONG WINDS WILL EXTEND AN
UNUSUAL DISTANCE OUT FROM THE WEATHER SYSTEM. NORTHEAST WINDS OVER
THE WATERS WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE. THIS WILL BUILD SEAS OF 7 TO
11 FEET ON THE EXPOSED WATERS. A GALE WARNING WILL EVENTUALLY BE
NEEDED FOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ALSO EXPECT REDUCED VSBYS
IN RAIN AND SNOW.

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...A SECOND WEATHER SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND MOVE OUTSIDE NANTUCKET. THIS WILL BRING
ANOTHER PERIOD OF NORTHEAST WINDS WITH GUSTS OVER 25 KNOTS. THERE
REMAIN MANY QUESTIONS ABOUT THIS NEXT SYSTEM...AS WELL AS LOW
POTENTIAL FOR WINDS REACHING 35 KNOTS. SEAS WILL REMAIN AT 7 TO 11
FEET.

WEDNESDAY... WINDS DIMINISH AS THE SECOND COASTAL STORM MOVES OFF.
WIND SPEEDS SHOULD GO BELOW 25 KNOTS. ROUGH SEAS WILL LINGER MUCH OF
THE DAY ESPECIALLY ON THE SOUTHERN EXPOSED WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
MONDAY...

THERE IS A FAIRLY HIGH ASTRO TIDE OF 11.2 IN BOSTON LATE MONDAY
MORNING.  NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS FROM LARGE
CIRCULATION OF THE INTENSIFYING OCEAN STORM WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A
1 TO 1.5 SURGE.  SEAS SHOULD BE BUILT UP TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 FEET
BY THEN...SO FEEL THERE IS A DECENT SHOT FOR POCKETS OF MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING ALONG EASTERN MA COAST.  THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR
POCKETS OF MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING...IF THE STORMS ENDS UP A BIT
FASTER AND TRACKING FURTHER WEST THAN CURRENT GUIDANCE INDICATES.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...

MAIN CONCERN IS IF WE END UP WITH A SECOND AREA OF STRONG LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING UP THE COAST...WHICH COULD IMPACT ADDITIONAL HIGH
TIDE CYCLES. LARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE ON WHETHER OR NOT THIS
HAPPENS.  IF SO...WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE TUESDAY NOON HIGH TIDE
CYCLE ACROSS EASTERN MA AS BOSTON HAS AN 11.5 ASTRO TIDE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ254-
     255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 061128
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
628 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY WEATHER THIS WEEKEND WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY. TWO DEVELOPING COASTAL STORMS MAY BRING
ACCUMULATING SNOW ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN
MA. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT BRINGS MUCH CHILLIER AIR FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

630 AM UPDATE...

PATCHY CLOUDS OVER THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES. OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN USA WILL BRING FAIR SKIES THROUGH
THE DAY. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO SET UP OVER THE REGION
TODAY. A PASSING HIGH TO OUR SOUTH WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE REGION FOR THIS AFTERNOON. ANTICIPATE GUSTS BETWEEN 15-20
MPH. WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL WILL ALSO BRING SOME MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA RESULTING IN A FILTERED SUNSHINE. GUIDANCE DOES
INDICATE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S BUT WITH THE FRESH
SNOW PACK THAT MAY BE A BIT TO OPTIMISTIC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINLY DOMINATE RESULTING IN QUIET WEATHER.
HOWEVER PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE SLOW TO RELAX WHICH WILL LIMIT
RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT. TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE 20S WITH
PERHAPS LOW READINGS IN AREAS WHERE THE WIND WILL BE CALM.

SUNDAY...

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH WILL DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION ON SUNDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BE DRY BUT MAY BRING IN SOME
CLOUDS. WESTERLY FLOW WILL DOMINATE IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM IN TO THE 40S. HELP AID IN MELTING
SOME OF THE SNOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...

LONGWAVE PATTERN SHOWS RIDGE WEST/TROUGH EAST AS BEFORE...WITH
INCREASING AMPLITUDE EARLY WEEK AND DECREASING AMPLITUDE LATE WEEK.
OVERALL A COLD AND UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  AT
SHORTER WAVE SCALES WE SEE THREE SHORTWAVES AFFECTING THE PATTERN.
THE FIRST IS IN THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY AND GENERATES COASTAL
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINAS SUNDAY. THIS SWINGS WIDE OF OUR
AREA...CROSSING ABOUT 4 DEGREES SOUTH OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK...AND
THEN SWEEPS NORTHEAST JUST SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA. THE SECOND
SHORTWAVE IS MOVING ASHORE IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND WILL CARVE A
DEEP COLD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN USA DURING THE EARLY WEEK.  THE
THIRD SHORTWAVE IS ALONG THE ARCTIC OCEAN COASTLINE AND WILL DROP
SOUTH INTO THE USA MIDWEEK.

OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE MASS FIELDS ARE SIMILAR ON THE BROAD SCALE MOST
OF THE PERIOD. BUT THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS...ESPECIALLY
REGARDING THE SECOND SHORTWAVE AND ITS DEVELOPING COASTAL SYSTEM
TUESDAY. THIS SECOND SHORTWAVE WAS JUST COMING ASHORE AT MEASUREMENT
TIME LAST NIGHT. THE 12Z SATURDAY MODELS SHOULD HAVE A BETTER READ
ON THE SHORTWAVE AND ITS EFFECTS. WE CONTINUE TO FAVOR A MODEL BLEND
ESPECIALLY USING THE GFS AND ECMWF.

THE DAILIES...

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY... COASTAL STORM PASSES WELL OFFSHORE...SOME 4
DEGREES SOUTH OF THE BENCHMARK. NORMALLY THAT WOULD MEAN A SWING AND
A MISS FOR STRIKE THREE. BUT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM QUEBEC
AND ESTABLISHES A PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT SHOULD BRING A NORTHEAST
MARINE FLOW WITH DELTA OF 13-15C. THIS SHOULD AT LEAST BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY. LESS CONFIDENCE ON PCPN
GIVEN MEDIOCRE FORCING AND CHANGING RUN-TO-RUN AMOUNTS.

MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON QPF DURING MONDAY WITH MAIN FOCUS ON CAPE
AND ISLANDS...POSSIBLY EASTERN MASS. WE HAVE BACKED OFF ONSET OF
POPS UNTIL 06-12Z MONDAY AND VALUE OF POPS BY ABOUT 20 PERCENT. THIS
STILL BRINGS POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES IN EASTERN MASS WITH
HIGHEST AMOUNTS CAPE COD/PLYMOUTH CO AREA.

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY... SECOND SHORTWAVE DIGS OVER THE MIDWEST WITH
SURFACE LOW REDEVELOPMENT ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS NEW
COASTAL LOW THEN MOVES PAST NEW ENGLAND. BETTER DYNAMICS AND
RESULTING LIFT SHOULD BE IN PLACE AND WITH DEEPER MOISTURE WOULD
EXPECT THIS TO BE A BETTER CHANCE OF PCPN THAN THE MONDAY OFFSHORE
SYSTEM. BUT THE RESPONSIBLE SHORTWAVE IS JUST NOW MOVING ASHORE AS
NOTED ABOVE. SO STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND ITS
POTENTIAL. WE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... UPPER TROUGH WITH ITS COLD POOL ALOFT
AND CLOUD SHIELD LINGER WEDNESDAY. THE ARCTIC SHORTWAVE THEN SWINGS
THROUGH ON THURSDAY. EXPECT QUITE A FEW CLOUDS DURING THIS PERIOD
WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. CLIPPER LOW THEN DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM
NORTHERN ONTARIO FRIDAY AND BRINGING MORE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS. MIXED LAYER REACHES EITHER SIDE OF 925 MB EACH DAY...A
LITTLE HIGHER THURSDAY BEHIND THE ARCTIC SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE
FRONT. TEMPS ALOFT AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER SUPPORT 30S
WEDNESDAY...20S WEST/32 EAST THURSDAY...AND 20S TO NEAR 30 FRIDAY.
AS NOTED EARLIER...COLD AND UNSETTLED.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. WINDS SHIFT TO THE SW. A FEW GUSTS
BETWEEN 15-20 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

TWO POTENTIAL STORMS DURING THIS PERIOD...EITHER COULD BRING
IFR/LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN SNOW. THE FIRST CHANCE FOR THIS WILL BE
MONDAY...WITH BEST CHANCE ON CAPE COD AND ISLANDS. NORTH-NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL GUST TO 35 KNOTS ALONG THE EASTERN MASS COAST. THE SECOND
CHANCE WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH ALL OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND UNDER THE GUN. CONDITIONS IMPROVE WEDNESDAY TO MVFR CIGS
WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

LINGERING SWELLS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TODAY. SCA LINGERS FOR
A PORTION OF THE DAY...BUT MAY BE ABLE TO BE DROPPED SOONER.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AN
INCREASE IN THE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD IN
RESPONSE. SCA MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW FOR BUILDING
SEAS IN RESPONSE TO GUSTY WINDS.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...A DEVELOPING GALE CENTER WILL PASS WELL
OFFSHORE SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET...BUT STRONG WINDS WILL EXTEND AN
UNUSUAL DISTANCE OUT FROM THE WEATHER SYSTEM. NORTHEAST WINDS OVER
THE WATERS WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE. THIS WILL BUILD SEAS OF 7 TO
11 FEET ON THE EXPOSED WATERS. A GALE WARNING WILL EVENTUALLY BE
NEEDED FOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ALSO EXPECT REDUCED VSBYS
IN RAIN AND SNOW.

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...A SECOND WEATHER SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND MOVE OUTSIDE NANTUCKET. THIS WILL BRING
ANOTHER PERIOD OF NORTHEAST WINDS WITH GUSTS OVER 25 KNOTS. THERE
REMAIN MANY QUESTIONS ABOUT THIS NEXT SYSTEM...AS WELL AS LOW
POTENTIAL FOR WINDS REACHING 35 KNOTS. SEAS WILL REMAIN AT 7 TO 11
FEET.

WEDNESDAY... WINDS DIMINISH AS THE SECOND COASTAL STORM MOVES OFF.
WIND SPEEDS SHOULD GO BELOW 25 KNOTS. ROUGH SEAS WILL LINGER MUCH OF
THE DAY ESPECIALLY ON THE SOUTHERN EXPOSED WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
MONDAY...

THERE IS A FAIRLY HIGH ASTRO TIDE OF 11.2 IN BOSTON LATE MONDAY
MORNING.  NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS FROM LARGE
CIRCULATION OF THE INTENSIFYING OCEAN STORM WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A
1 TO 1.5 SURGE.  SEAS SHOULD BE BUILT UP TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 FEET
BY THEN...SO FEEL THERE IS A DECENT SHOT FOR POCKETS OF MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING ALONG EASTERN MA COAST.  THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR
POCKETS OF MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING...IF THE STORMS ENDS UP A BIT
FASTER AND TRACKING FURTHER WEST THAN CURRENT GUIDANCE INDICATES.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...

MAIN CONCERN IS IF WE END UP WITH A SECOND AREA OF STRONG LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING UP THE COAST...WHICH COULD IMPACT ADDITIONAL HIGH
TIDE CYCLES. LARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE ON WHETHER OR NOT THIS
HAPPENS.  IF SO...WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE TUESDAY NOON HIGH TIDE
CYCLE ACROSS EASTERN MA AS BOSTON HAS AN 11.5 ASTRO TIDE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ254-
     255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KBOX 061128
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
628 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY WEATHER THIS WEEKEND WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY. TWO DEVELOPING COASTAL STORMS MAY BRING
ACCUMULATING SNOW ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN
MA. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT BRINGS MUCH CHILLIER AIR FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

630 AM UPDATE...

PATCHY CLOUDS OVER THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES. OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN USA WILL BRING FAIR SKIES THROUGH
THE DAY. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO SET UP OVER THE REGION
TODAY. A PASSING HIGH TO OUR SOUTH WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE REGION FOR THIS AFTERNOON. ANTICIPATE GUSTS BETWEEN 15-20
MPH. WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL WILL ALSO BRING SOME MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA RESULTING IN A FILTERED SUNSHINE. GUIDANCE DOES
INDICATE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S BUT WITH THE FRESH
SNOW PACK THAT MAY BE A BIT TO OPTIMISTIC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINLY DOMINATE RESULTING IN QUIET WEATHER.
HOWEVER PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE SLOW TO RELAX WHICH WILL LIMIT
RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT. TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE 20S WITH
PERHAPS LOW READINGS IN AREAS WHERE THE WIND WILL BE CALM.

SUNDAY...

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH WILL DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION ON SUNDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BE DRY BUT MAY BRING IN SOME
CLOUDS. WESTERLY FLOW WILL DOMINATE IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM IN TO THE 40S. HELP AID IN MELTING
SOME OF THE SNOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...

LONGWAVE PATTERN SHOWS RIDGE WEST/TROUGH EAST AS BEFORE...WITH
INCREASING AMPLITUDE EARLY WEEK AND DECREASING AMPLITUDE LATE WEEK.
OVERALL A COLD AND UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  AT
SHORTER WAVE SCALES WE SEE THREE SHORTWAVES AFFECTING THE PATTERN.
THE FIRST IS IN THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY AND GENERATES COASTAL
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINAS SUNDAY. THIS SWINGS WIDE OF OUR
AREA...CROSSING ABOUT 4 DEGREES SOUTH OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK...AND
THEN SWEEPS NORTHEAST JUST SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA. THE SECOND
SHORTWAVE IS MOVING ASHORE IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND WILL CARVE A
DEEP COLD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN USA DURING THE EARLY WEEK.  THE
THIRD SHORTWAVE IS ALONG THE ARCTIC OCEAN COASTLINE AND WILL DROP
SOUTH INTO THE USA MIDWEEK.

OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE MASS FIELDS ARE SIMILAR ON THE BROAD SCALE MOST
OF THE PERIOD. BUT THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS...ESPECIALLY
REGARDING THE SECOND SHORTWAVE AND ITS DEVELOPING COASTAL SYSTEM
TUESDAY. THIS SECOND SHORTWAVE WAS JUST COMING ASHORE AT MEASUREMENT
TIME LAST NIGHT. THE 12Z SATURDAY MODELS SHOULD HAVE A BETTER READ
ON THE SHORTWAVE AND ITS EFFECTS. WE CONTINUE TO FAVOR A MODEL BLEND
ESPECIALLY USING THE GFS AND ECMWF.

THE DAILIES...

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY... COASTAL STORM PASSES WELL OFFSHORE...SOME 4
DEGREES SOUTH OF THE BENCHMARK. NORMALLY THAT WOULD MEAN A SWING AND
A MISS FOR STRIKE THREE. BUT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM QUEBEC
AND ESTABLISHES A PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT SHOULD BRING A NORTHEAST
MARINE FLOW WITH DELTA OF 13-15C. THIS SHOULD AT LEAST BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY. LESS CONFIDENCE ON PCPN
GIVEN MEDIOCRE FORCING AND CHANGING RUN-TO-RUN AMOUNTS.

MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON QPF DURING MONDAY WITH MAIN FOCUS ON CAPE
AND ISLANDS...POSSIBLY EASTERN MASS. WE HAVE BACKED OFF ONSET OF
POPS UNTIL 06-12Z MONDAY AND VALUE OF POPS BY ABOUT 20 PERCENT. THIS
STILL BRINGS POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES IN EASTERN MASS WITH
HIGHEST AMOUNTS CAPE COD/PLYMOUTH CO AREA.

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY... SECOND SHORTWAVE DIGS OVER THE MIDWEST WITH
SURFACE LOW REDEVELOPMENT ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS NEW
COASTAL LOW THEN MOVES PAST NEW ENGLAND. BETTER DYNAMICS AND
RESULTING LIFT SHOULD BE IN PLACE AND WITH DEEPER MOISTURE WOULD
EXPECT THIS TO BE A BETTER CHANCE OF PCPN THAN THE MONDAY OFFSHORE
SYSTEM. BUT THE RESPONSIBLE SHORTWAVE IS JUST NOW MOVING ASHORE AS
NOTED ABOVE. SO STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND ITS
POTENTIAL. WE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... UPPER TROUGH WITH ITS COLD POOL ALOFT
AND CLOUD SHIELD LINGER WEDNESDAY. THE ARCTIC SHORTWAVE THEN SWINGS
THROUGH ON THURSDAY. EXPECT QUITE A FEW CLOUDS DURING THIS PERIOD
WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. CLIPPER LOW THEN DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM
NORTHERN ONTARIO FRIDAY AND BRINGING MORE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS. MIXED LAYER REACHES EITHER SIDE OF 925 MB EACH DAY...A
LITTLE HIGHER THURSDAY BEHIND THE ARCTIC SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE
FRONT. TEMPS ALOFT AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER SUPPORT 30S
WEDNESDAY...20S WEST/32 EAST THURSDAY...AND 20S TO NEAR 30 FRIDAY.
AS NOTED EARLIER...COLD AND UNSETTLED.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. WINDS SHIFT TO THE SW. A FEW GUSTS
BETWEEN 15-20 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

TWO POTENTIAL STORMS DURING THIS PERIOD...EITHER COULD BRING
IFR/LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN SNOW. THE FIRST CHANCE FOR THIS WILL BE
MONDAY...WITH BEST CHANCE ON CAPE COD AND ISLANDS. NORTH-NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL GUST TO 35 KNOTS ALONG THE EASTERN MASS COAST. THE SECOND
CHANCE WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH ALL OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND UNDER THE GUN. CONDITIONS IMPROVE WEDNESDAY TO MVFR CIGS
WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

LINGERING SWELLS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TODAY. SCA LINGERS FOR
A PORTION OF THE DAY...BUT MAY BE ABLE TO BE DROPPED SOONER.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AN
INCREASE IN THE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD IN
RESPONSE. SCA MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW FOR BUILDING
SEAS IN RESPONSE TO GUSTY WINDS.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...A DEVELOPING GALE CENTER WILL PASS WELL
OFFSHORE SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET...BUT STRONG WINDS WILL EXTEND AN
UNUSUAL DISTANCE OUT FROM THE WEATHER SYSTEM. NORTHEAST WINDS OVER
THE WATERS WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE. THIS WILL BUILD SEAS OF 7 TO
11 FEET ON THE EXPOSED WATERS. A GALE WARNING WILL EVENTUALLY BE
NEEDED FOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ALSO EXPECT REDUCED VSBYS
IN RAIN AND SNOW.

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...A SECOND WEATHER SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND MOVE OUTSIDE NANTUCKET. THIS WILL BRING
ANOTHER PERIOD OF NORTHEAST WINDS WITH GUSTS OVER 25 KNOTS. THERE
REMAIN MANY QUESTIONS ABOUT THIS NEXT SYSTEM...AS WELL AS LOW
POTENTIAL FOR WINDS REACHING 35 KNOTS. SEAS WILL REMAIN AT 7 TO 11
FEET.

WEDNESDAY... WINDS DIMINISH AS THE SECOND COASTAL STORM MOVES OFF.
WIND SPEEDS SHOULD GO BELOW 25 KNOTS. ROUGH SEAS WILL LINGER MUCH OF
THE DAY ESPECIALLY ON THE SOUTHERN EXPOSED WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
MONDAY...

THERE IS A FAIRLY HIGH ASTRO TIDE OF 11.2 IN BOSTON LATE MONDAY
MORNING.  NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS FROM LARGE
CIRCULATION OF THE INTENSIFYING OCEAN STORM WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A
1 TO 1.5 SURGE.  SEAS SHOULD BE BUILT UP TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 FEET
BY THEN...SO FEEL THERE IS A DECENT SHOT FOR POCKETS OF MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING ALONG EASTERN MA COAST.  THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR
POCKETS OF MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING...IF THE STORMS ENDS UP A BIT
FASTER AND TRACKING FURTHER WEST THAN CURRENT GUIDANCE INDICATES.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...

MAIN CONCERN IS IF WE END UP WITH A SECOND AREA OF STRONG LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING UP THE COAST...WHICH COULD IMPACT ADDITIONAL HIGH
TIDE CYCLES. LARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE ON WHETHER OR NOT THIS
HAPPENS.  IF SO...WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE TUESDAY NOON HIGH TIDE
CYCLE ACROSS EASTERN MA AS BOSTON HAS AN 11.5 ASTRO TIDE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ254-
     255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KALY 061127
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
627 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER OVER THE
WEEKEND. A FAST MOVING...CLIPPER...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS
TO OUR NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON THE LOCAL
AREA. SOME SNOW IS POSSIBLE FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EXTENDING NORTHERN HERKIMER
COUNTY...TRACKING INTO HAMILTON COUNTY...THAT WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT NORTHWARD AS LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHWEST THROUGH
THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THE DAY. SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE
SPREADING INTO THE REGION AND WE SHOULD SEE FILTERED SUNSHINE
THROUGH THE DAY WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS. EVEN WITH THE FILTERED
SUN...TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB TO HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER
40S

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL BE IN CONTROL TONIGHT BUT A COLD
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM CANADA BY DAYBREAK AND THROUGH
THE DAY SUNDAY AS UPPER ENERGY TRACKS EAST THROUGH SE CANADA. MORE
INTERVALS OF HIGH CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS.
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A LITTLE AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT BUT VERY LIGHT WINDS SUNDAY COULD LIMIT MIXING. HIGHS
SUNDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S...SOME 30S IN NORTHERN AREAS.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND OFFSHORE...WITH A GENERAL
CONSENSUS FROM SOURCES OF GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES FOR THE PRIMARY
UPPER ENERGY AND LOW LEVEL FORCING TO TRACK WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF
NEW ENGLAND. THERE ARE STILL SOME UNCERTAINTIES...THOUGH...BECAUSE
DIGGING...TRAILING...STRONG NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY MAY HAVE SOME
INFLUENCE IN HOW FAR NORTH AND WEST THE STEADIER PRECIPITATION
GETS...DEPENDING ON ITS INFLUENCE ON THE TRACK OF THE SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM...IF AT ALL.

ALSO...AS THE COASTAL SYSTEM DEVELOPS...THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT THERE COULD BE A SOMEWHAT LONG FETCH OF EASTERLY
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OFF THE OCEAN INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. WHICH
COULD RESULT IN A MORE EXPANDED PRECIPITATION SHIELD. LOTS OF
IFS...WHICH AGAIN ILLUSTRATES THE UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT. AT THE
VERY LEAST...THE DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY AND MOISTURE FROM
THE GREAT LAKES COULD BRING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT TO THE REGION. TIME WILL TELL HOW
EVERYTHING SORTS OUT IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

SO...GENERALLY BECOMING CLOUDY SUNDAY NIGHT AND STAYING MAINLY
CLOUDY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. ON MONDAY...INDICATING HIGH
CHANCES BORDERING ON LIKELY FOR SNOW IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
NW CT. SMALLER CHANCES TO THE SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN VT
WITH SLIGHT CHANCES A LITTLE NORTH AND WEST OF THOSE AREAS. BY
MONDAY NIGHT...MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE HIGH CHANCES FOR SNOW. HIGHS
MONDAY IN THE LOWER 30S NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 30S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MORE WINTER LIKE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE LONG TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST...WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING FROM NEAR
NORMAL ON TUESDAY TO BELOW NORMAL TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
THERE WILL BE MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS
DURING THE PERIOD AS WELL.

THE PERIOD STARTS OUT ON TUESDAY WITH A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN
ACROSS THE CONUS AND A SPRAWLING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATING SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT WILL SPAWN A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THERE
IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE EVENTUAL STRENGTH OF
THIS SYSTEM...AS IT MAY NOT HAVE MUCH BAROCLINICITY TO WORK WITH.
THIS WILL STILL BE A SYSTEM TO KEEP AN EYE ON...AS DEPENDING ON THE
EXACT TRACK COULD BRING AT LEAST A LIGHT SNOWFALL TO PARTS OF THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. WILL
MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR NOW...WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS ANY
SNOWFALL WILL BE LIGHT...HOWEVER THERE ARE SEVERAL FACTORS THAT MAY
ALLOW THE STORM TO TAKE A MORE WESTERLY TRACK WHICH WOULD RESULT IN
GREATER SNOWFALL. STAY TUNED.

BY WEDNESDAY ANY POTENTIAL STORM SHOULD BE WELL OFFSHORE AND FAR
NORTH AND EAST OF OUR REGION. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVING
THROUGH ALONG WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT LOOKS POISED TO CROSS OUR
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT...WHILE THE
MAIN STORY WILL BE MUCH COLDER ARCTIC AIR SURGING SOUTHWARD INTO THE
REGION.

A SMALL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MAY BRIEFLY BUILD IN THURSDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE THE NEXT POTENTIALLY STRONG ARCTIC FRONT COULD USHER
IN THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON THUS FAR STARTING LATE FRIDAY. WE
ARE STILL ABOUT A WEEK AWAY FROM THIS...BUT WILL NOTE THE GFS/ECMWF
HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH SHOWING SUB-500 DECAMETER THICKNESS
VALUES OVER THE REGION BY THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE KALB/KPOU/KPSF/KGFL TERMINALS
THROUGH THE 24 HOUR PERIOD ENDING 12Z SUNDAY. SKIES STARTING OUT
MOSTLY CLEAR OR PARTLY CLOUDY EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE LATER IN THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED. CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE AFTER DARK AS A WEAK RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 5-10 KTS...BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER DARK.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO CONCERNS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS AS ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT OR IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

THE THIRD WINTER SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE SEASON WAS ISSUED
ON FEBRUARY 4TH.

HIGHLIGHTS...REFER TO THE PRODUCTS FOR DETAILS (ALBESFALY):

DUE TO BELOW NORMAL SNOW COVER AND RIVER ICE...POTENTIAL FOR
SNOWMELT AND ICE JAM FLOODING IS LOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

ALTHOUGH WATER SUPPLY LEVELS ARE NOT A CONCERN AT THE MOMENT...THERE
IS CURRENTLY VERY LITTLE SNOW WATER AVAILABLE FOR RESERVOIR RECHARGE
ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. IT WILL TAKE A STEADY SUPPLY OF RAIN AND
SNOW THROUGH SPRING INTO SUMMER FOR RESERVOIRS TO MAINTAIN ADEQUATE
LEVELS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...NAS




000
FXUS61 KALY 061127
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
627 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER OVER THE
WEEKEND. A FAST MOVING...CLIPPER...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS
TO OUR NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON THE LOCAL
AREA. SOME SNOW IS POSSIBLE FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EXTENDING NORTHERN HERKIMER
COUNTY...TRACKING INTO HAMILTON COUNTY...THAT WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT NORTHWARD AS LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHWEST THROUGH
THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THE DAY. SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE
SPREADING INTO THE REGION AND WE SHOULD SEE FILTERED SUNSHINE
THROUGH THE DAY WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS. EVEN WITH THE FILTERED
SUN...TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB TO HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER
40S

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL BE IN CONTROL TONIGHT BUT A COLD
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM CANADA BY DAYBREAK AND THROUGH
THE DAY SUNDAY AS UPPER ENERGY TRACKS EAST THROUGH SE CANADA. MORE
INTERVALS OF HIGH CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS.
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A LITTLE AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT BUT VERY LIGHT WINDS SUNDAY COULD LIMIT MIXING. HIGHS
SUNDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S...SOME 30S IN NORTHERN AREAS.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND OFFSHORE...WITH A GENERAL
CONSENSUS FROM SOURCES OF GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES FOR THE PRIMARY
UPPER ENERGY AND LOW LEVEL FORCING TO TRACK WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF
NEW ENGLAND. THERE ARE STILL SOME UNCERTAINTIES...THOUGH...BECAUSE
DIGGING...TRAILING...STRONG NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY MAY HAVE SOME
INFLUENCE IN HOW FAR NORTH AND WEST THE STEADIER PRECIPITATION
GETS...DEPENDING ON ITS INFLUENCE ON THE TRACK OF THE SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM...IF AT ALL.

ALSO...AS THE COASTAL SYSTEM DEVELOPS...THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT THERE COULD BE A SOMEWHAT LONG FETCH OF EASTERLY
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OFF THE OCEAN INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. WHICH
COULD RESULT IN A MORE EXPANDED PRECIPITATION SHIELD. LOTS OF
IFS...WHICH AGAIN ILLUSTRATES THE UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT. AT THE
VERY LEAST...THE DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY AND MOISTURE FROM
THE GREAT LAKES COULD BRING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT TO THE REGION. TIME WILL TELL HOW
EVERYTHING SORTS OUT IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

SO...GENERALLY BECOMING CLOUDY SUNDAY NIGHT AND STAYING MAINLY
CLOUDY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. ON MONDAY...INDICATING HIGH
CHANCES BORDERING ON LIKELY FOR SNOW IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
NW CT. SMALLER CHANCES TO THE SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN VT
WITH SLIGHT CHANCES A LITTLE NORTH AND WEST OF THOSE AREAS. BY
MONDAY NIGHT...MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE HIGH CHANCES FOR SNOW. HIGHS
MONDAY IN THE LOWER 30S NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 30S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MORE WINTER LIKE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE LONG TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST...WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING FROM NEAR
NORMAL ON TUESDAY TO BELOW NORMAL TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
THERE WILL BE MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS
DURING THE PERIOD AS WELL.

THE PERIOD STARTS OUT ON TUESDAY WITH A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN
ACROSS THE CONUS AND A SPRAWLING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATING SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT WILL SPAWN A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THERE
IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE EVENTUAL STRENGTH OF
THIS SYSTEM...AS IT MAY NOT HAVE MUCH BAROCLINICITY TO WORK WITH.
THIS WILL STILL BE A SYSTEM TO KEEP AN EYE ON...AS DEPENDING ON THE
EXACT TRACK COULD BRING AT LEAST A LIGHT SNOWFALL TO PARTS OF THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. WILL
MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR NOW...WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS ANY
SNOWFALL WILL BE LIGHT...HOWEVER THERE ARE SEVERAL FACTORS THAT MAY
ALLOW THE STORM TO TAKE A MORE WESTERLY TRACK WHICH WOULD RESULT IN
GREATER SNOWFALL. STAY TUNED.

BY WEDNESDAY ANY POTENTIAL STORM SHOULD BE WELL OFFSHORE AND FAR
NORTH AND EAST OF OUR REGION. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVING
THROUGH ALONG WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT LOOKS POISED TO CROSS OUR
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT...WHILE THE
MAIN STORY WILL BE MUCH COLDER ARCTIC AIR SURGING SOUTHWARD INTO THE
REGION.

A SMALL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MAY BRIEFLY BUILD IN THURSDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE THE NEXT POTENTIALLY STRONG ARCTIC FRONT COULD USHER
IN THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON THUS FAR STARTING LATE FRIDAY. WE
ARE STILL ABOUT A WEEK AWAY FROM THIS...BUT WILL NOTE THE GFS/ECMWF
HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH SHOWING SUB-500 DECAMETER THICKNESS
VALUES OVER THE REGION BY THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE KALB/KPOU/KPSF/KGFL TERMINALS
THROUGH THE 24 HOUR PERIOD ENDING 12Z SUNDAY. SKIES STARTING OUT
MOSTLY CLEAR OR PARTLY CLOUDY EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE LATER IN THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED. CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE AFTER DARK AS A WEAK RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 5-10 KTS...BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER DARK.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO CONCERNS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS AS ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT OR IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

THE THIRD WINTER SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE SEASON WAS ISSUED
ON FEBRUARY 4TH.

HIGHLIGHTS...REFER TO THE PRODUCTS FOR DETAILS (ALBESFALY):

DUE TO BELOW NORMAL SNOW COVER AND RIVER ICE...POTENTIAL FOR
SNOWMELT AND ICE JAM FLOODING IS LOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

ALTHOUGH WATER SUPPLY LEVELS ARE NOT A CONCERN AT THE MOMENT...THERE
IS CURRENTLY VERY LITTLE SNOW WATER AVAILABLE FOR RESERVOIR RECHARGE
ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. IT WILL TAKE A STEADY SUPPLY OF RAIN AND
SNOW THROUGH SPRING INTO SUMMER FOR RESERVOIRS TO MAINTAIN ADEQUATE
LEVELS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...NAS




000
FXUS61 KALY 061127
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
627 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER OVER THE
WEEKEND. A FAST MOVING...CLIPPER...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS
TO OUR NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON THE LOCAL
AREA. SOME SNOW IS POSSIBLE FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EXTENDING NORTHERN HERKIMER
COUNTY...TRACKING INTO HAMILTON COUNTY...THAT WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT NORTHWARD AS LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHWEST THROUGH
THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THE DAY. SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE
SPREADING INTO THE REGION AND WE SHOULD SEE FILTERED SUNSHINE
THROUGH THE DAY WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS. EVEN WITH THE FILTERED
SUN...TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB TO HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER
40S

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL BE IN CONTROL TONIGHT BUT A COLD
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM CANADA BY DAYBREAK AND THROUGH
THE DAY SUNDAY AS UPPER ENERGY TRACKS EAST THROUGH SE CANADA. MORE
INTERVALS OF HIGH CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS.
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A LITTLE AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT BUT VERY LIGHT WINDS SUNDAY COULD LIMIT MIXING. HIGHS
SUNDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S...SOME 30S IN NORTHERN AREAS.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND OFFSHORE...WITH A GENERAL
CONSENSUS FROM SOURCES OF GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES FOR THE PRIMARY
UPPER ENERGY AND LOW LEVEL FORCING TO TRACK WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF
NEW ENGLAND. THERE ARE STILL SOME UNCERTAINTIES...THOUGH...BECAUSE
DIGGING...TRAILING...STRONG NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY MAY HAVE SOME
INFLUENCE IN HOW FAR NORTH AND WEST THE STEADIER PRECIPITATION
GETS...DEPENDING ON ITS INFLUENCE ON THE TRACK OF THE SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM...IF AT ALL.

ALSO...AS THE COASTAL SYSTEM DEVELOPS...THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT THERE COULD BE A SOMEWHAT LONG FETCH OF EASTERLY
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OFF THE OCEAN INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. WHICH
COULD RESULT IN A MORE EXPANDED PRECIPITATION SHIELD. LOTS OF
IFS...WHICH AGAIN ILLUSTRATES THE UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT. AT THE
VERY LEAST...THE DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY AND MOISTURE FROM
THE GREAT LAKES COULD BRING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT TO THE REGION. TIME WILL TELL HOW
EVERYTHING SORTS OUT IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

SO...GENERALLY BECOMING CLOUDY SUNDAY NIGHT AND STAYING MAINLY
CLOUDY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. ON MONDAY...INDICATING HIGH
CHANCES BORDERING ON LIKELY FOR SNOW IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
NW CT. SMALLER CHANCES TO THE SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN VT
WITH SLIGHT CHANCES A LITTLE NORTH AND WEST OF THOSE AREAS. BY
MONDAY NIGHT...MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE HIGH CHANCES FOR SNOW. HIGHS
MONDAY IN THE LOWER 30S NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 30S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MORE WINTER LIKE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE LONG TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST...WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING FROM NEAR
NORMAL ON TUESDAY TO BELOW NORMAL TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
THERE WILL BE MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS
DURING THE PERIOD AS WELL.

THE PERIOD STARTS OUT ON TUESDAY WITH A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN
ACROSS THE CONUS AND A SPRAWLING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATING SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT WILL SPAWN A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THERE
IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE EVENTUAL STRENGTH OF
THIS SYSTEM...AS IT MAY NOT HAVE MUCH BAROCLINICITY TO WORK WITH.
THIS WILL STILL BE A SYSTEM TO KEEP AN EYE ON...AS DEPENDING ON THE
EXACT TRACK COULD BRING AT LEAST A LIGHT SNOWFALL TO PARTS OF THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. WILL
MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR NOW...WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS ANY
SNOWFALL WILL BE LIGHT...HOWEVER THERE ARE SEVERAL FACTORS THAT MAY
ALLOW THE STORM TO TAKE A MORE WESTERLY TRACK WHICH WOULD RESULT IN
GREATER SNOWFALL. STAY TUNED.

BY WEDNESDAY ANY POTENTIAL STORM SHOULD BE WELL OFFSHORE AND FAR
NORTH AND EAST OF OUR REGION. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVING
THROUGH ALONG WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT LOOKS POISED TO CROSS OUR
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT...WHILE THE
MAIN STORY WILL BE MUCH COLDER ARCTIC AIR SURGING SOUTHWARD INTO THE
REGION.

A SMALL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MAY BRIEFLY BUILD IN THURSDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE THE NEXT POTENTIALLY STRONG ARCTIC FRONT COULD USHER
IN THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON THUS FAR STARTING LATE FRIDAY. WE
ARE STILL ABOUT A WEEK AWAY FROM THIS...BUT WILL NOTE THE GFS/ECMWF
HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH SHOWING SUB-500 DECAMETER THICKNESS
VALUES OVER THE REGION BY THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE KALB/KPOU/KPSF/KGFL TERMINALS
THROUGH THE 24 HOUR PERIOD ENDING 12Z SUNDAY. SKIES STARTING OUT
MOSTLY CLEAR OR PARTLY CLOUDY EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE LATER IN THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED. CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE AFTER DARK AS A WEAK RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 5-10 KTS...BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER DARK.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO CONCERNS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS AS ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT OR IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

THE THIRD WINTER SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE SEASON WAS ISSUED
ON FEBRUARY 4TH.

HIGHLIGHTS...REFER TO THE PRODUCTS FOR DETAILS (ALBESFALY):

DUE TO BELOW NORMAL SNOW COVER AND RIVER ICE...POTENTIAL FOR
SNOWMELT AND ICE JAM FLOODING IS LOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

ALTHOUGH WATER SUPPLY LEVELS ARE NOT A CONCERN AT THE MOMENT...THERE
IS CURRENTLY VERY LITTLE SNOW WATER AVAILABLE FOR RESERVOIR RECHARGE
ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. IT WILL TAKE A STEADY SUPPLY OF RAIN AND
SNOW THROUGH SPRING INTO SUMMER FOR RESERVOIRS TO MAINTAIN ADEQUATE
LEVELS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...NAS



000
FXUS61 KALY 061120
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
620 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER OVER THE
WEEKEND. A FAST MOVING...CLIPPER...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS
TO OUR NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON THE LOCAL
AREA. SOME SNOW IS POSSIBLE FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EXTENDING NORTHERN HERKIMER
COUNTY...TRACKING INTO HAMILTON COUNTY...THAT WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT NORTHWARD AS LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHWEST THROUGH
THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THE DAY. SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE
SPREADING INTO THE REGION AND WE SHOULD SEE FILTERED SUNSHINE
THROUGH THE DAY WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS. EVEN WITH THE FILTERED
SUN...TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB TO HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER
40S

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL BE IN CONTROL TONIGHT BUT A COLD
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM CANADA BY DAYBREAK AND THROUGH
THE DAY SUNDAY AS UPPER ENERGY TRACKS EAST THROUGH SE CANADA. MORE
INTERVALS OF HIGH CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS.
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A LITTLE AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT BUT VERY LIGHT WINDS SUNDAY COULD LIMIT MIXING. HIGHS
SUNDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S...SOME 30S IN NORTHERN AREAS.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND OFFSHORE...WITH A GENERAL
CONSENSUS FROM SOURCES OF GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES FOR THE PRIMARY
UPPER ENERGY AND LOW LEVEL FORCING TO TRACK WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF
NEW ENGLAND. THERE ARE STILL SOME UNCERTAINTIES...THOUGH...BECAUSE
DIGGING...TRAILING...STRONG NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY MAY HAVE SOME
INFLUENCE IN HOW FAR NORTH AND WEST THE STEADIER PRECIPITATION
GETS...DEPENDING ON ITS INFLUENCE ON THE TRACK OF THE SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM...IF AT ALL.

ALSO...AS THE COASTAL SYSTEM DEVELOPS...THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT THERE COULD BE A SOMEWHAT LONG FETCH OF EASTERLY
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OFF THE OCEAN INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. WHICH
COULD RESULT IN A MORE EXPANDED PRECIPITATION SHIELD. LOTS OF
IFS...WHICH AGAIN ILLUSTRATES THE UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT. AT THE
VERY LEAST...THE DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY AND MOISTURE FROM
THE GREAT LAKES COULD BRING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT TO THE REGION. TIME WILL TELL HOW
EVERYTHING SORTS OUT IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

SO...GENERALLY BECOMING CLOUDY SUNDAY NIGHT AND STAYING MAINLY
CLOUDY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. ON MONDAY...INDICATING HIGH
CHANCES BORDERING ON LIKELY FOR SNOW IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
NW CT. SMALLER CHANCES TO THE SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN VT
WITH SLIGHT CHANCES A LITTLE NORTH AND WEST OF THOSE AREAS. BY
MONDAY NIGHT...MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE HIGH CHANCES FOR SNOW. HIGHS
MONDAY IN THE LOWER 30S NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 30S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MORE WINTER LIKE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE LONG TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST...WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING FROM NEAR
NORMAL ON TUESDAY TO BELOW NORMAL TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
THERE WILL BE MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS
DURING THE PERIOD AS WELL.

THE PERIOD STARTS OUT ON TUESDAY WITH A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN
ACROSS THE CONUS AND A SPRAWLING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATING SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT WILL SPAWN A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THERE
IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE EVENTUAL STRENGTH OF
THIS SYSTEM...AS IT MAY NOT HAVE MUCH BAROCLINICITY TO WORK WITH.
THIS WILL STILL BE A SYSTEM TO KEEP AN EYE ON...AS DEPENDING ON THE
EXACT TRACK COULD BRING AT LEAST A LIGHT SNOWFALL TO PARTS OF THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. WILL
MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR NOW...WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS ANY
SNOWFALL WILL BE LIGHT...HOWEVER THERE ARE SEVERAL FACTORS THAT MAY
ALLOW THE STORM TO TAKE A MORE WESTERLY TRACK WHICH WOULD RESULT IN
GREATER SNOWFALL. STAY TUNED.

BY WEDNESDAY ANY POTENTIAL STORM SHOULD BE WELL OFFSHORE AND FAR
NORTH AND EAST OF OUR REGION. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVING
THROUGH ALONG WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT LOOKS POISED TO CROSS OUR
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT...WHILE THE
MAIN STORY WILL BE MUCH COLDER ARCTIC AIR SURGING SOUTHWARD INTO THE
REGION.

A SMALL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MAY BRIEFLY BUILD IN THURSDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE THE NEXT POTENTIALLY STRONG ARCTIC FRONT COULD USHER
IN THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON THUS FAR STARTING LATE FRIDAY. WE
ARE STILL ABOUT A WEEK AWAY FROM THIS...BUT WILL NOTE THE GFS/ECMWF
HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH SHOWING SUB-500 DECAMETER THICKNESS
VALUES OVER THE REGION BY THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE KALB/KPOU/KPSF/KGFL TERMINALS
THROUGH THE 24 HOUR PERIOD ENDING 06Z SUNDAY. SKIES STARTING OUT
MAINLY CLEAR EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE LATER IN THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY THIS
MORNING...BECOMING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 7-10 KTS BY NOON.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO CONCERNS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS AS ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT OR IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

THE THIRD WINTER SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE SEASON WAS ISSUED
ON FEBRUARY 4TH.

HIGHLIGHTS...REFER TO THE PRODUCTS FOR DETAILS (ALBESFALY):

DUE TO BELOW NORMAL SNOW COVER AND RIVER ICE...POTENTIAL FOR
SNOWMELT AND ICE JAM FLOODING IS LOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

ALTHOUGH WATER SUPPLY LEVELS ARE NOT A CONCERN AT THE MOMENT...THERE
IS CURRENTLY VERY LITTLE SNOW WATER AVAILABLE FOR RESERVOIR RECHARGE
ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. IT WILL TAKE A STEADY SUPPLY OF RAIN AND
SNOW THROUGH SPRING INTO SUMMER FOR RESERVOIRS TO MAINTAIN ADEQUATE
LEVELS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...NAS




000
FXUS61 KALY 061120
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
620 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER OVER THE
WEEKEND. A FAST MOVING...CLIPPER...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS
TO OUR NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON THE LOCAL
AREA. SOME SNOW IS POSSIBLE FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EXTENDING NORTHERN HERKIMER
COUNTY...TRACKING INTO HAMILTON COUNTY...THAT WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT NORTHWARD AS LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHWEST THROUGH
THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THE DAY. SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE
SPREADING INTO THE REGION AND WE SHOULD SEE FILTERED SUNSHINE
THROUGH THE DAY WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS. EVEN WITH THE FILTERED
SUN...TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB TO HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER
40S

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL BE IN CONTROL TONIGHT BUT A COLD
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM CANADA BY DAYBREAK AND THROUGH
THE DAY SUNDAY AS UPPER ENERGY TRACKS EAST THROUGH SE CANADA. MORE
INTERVALS OF HIGH CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS.
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A LITTLE AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT BUT VERY LIGHT WINDS SUNDAY COULD LIMIT MIXING. HIGHS
SUNDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S...SOME 30S IN NORTHERN AREAS.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND OFFSHORE...WITH A GENERAL
CONSENSUS FROM SOURCES OF GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES FOR THE PRIMARY
UPPER ENERGY AND LOW LEVEL FORCING TO TRACK WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF
NEW ENGLAND. THERE ARE STILL SOME UNCERTAINTIES...THOUGH...BECAUSE
DIGGING...TRAILING...STRONG NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY MAY HAVE SOME
INFLUENCE IN HOW FAR NORTH AND WEST THE STEADIER PRECIPITATION
GETS...DEPENDING ON ITS INFLUENCE ON THE TRACK OF THE SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM...IF AT ALL.

ALSO...AS THE COASTAL SYSTEM DEVELOPS...THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT THERE COULD BE A SOMEWHAT LONG FETCH OF EASTERLY
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OFF THE OCEAN INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. WHICH
COULD RESULT IN A MORE EXPANDED PRECIPITATION SHIELD. LOTS OF
IFS...WHICH AGAIN ILLUSTRATES THE UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT. AT THE
VERY LEAST...THE DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY AND MOISTURE FROM
THE GREAT LAKES COULD BRING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT TO THE REGION. TIME WILL TELL HOW
EVERYTHING SORTS OUT IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

SO...GENERALLY BECOMING CLOUDY SUNDAY NIGHT AND STAYING MAINLY
CLOUDY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. ON MONDAY...INDICATING HIGH
CHANCES BORDERING ON LIKELY FOR SNOW IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
NW CT. SMALLER CHANCES TO THE SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN VT
WITH SLIGHT CHANCES A LITTLE NORTH AND WEST OF THOSE AREAS. BY
MONDAY NIGHT...MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE HIGH CHANCES FOR SNOW. HIGHS
MONDAY IN THE LOWER 30S NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 30S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MORE WINTER LIKE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE LONG TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST...WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING FROM NEAR
NORMAL ON TUESDAY TO BELOW NORMAL TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
THERE WILL BE MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS
DURING THE PERIOD AS WELL.

THE PERIOD STARTS OUT ON TUESDAY WITH A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN
ACROSS THE CONUS AND A SPRAWLING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATING SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT WILL SPAWN A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THERE
IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE EVENTUAL STRENGTH OF
THIS SYSTEM...AS IT MAY NOT HAVE MUCH BAROCLINICITY TO WORK WITH.
THIS WILL STILL BE A SYSTEM TO KEEP AN EYE ON...AS DEPENDING ON THE
EXACT TRACK COULD BRING AT LEAST A LIGHT SNOWFALL TO PARTS OF THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. WILL
MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR NOW...WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS ANY
SNOWFALL WILL BE LIGHT...HOWEVER THERE ARE SEVERAL FACTORS THAT MAY
ALLOW THE STORM TO TAKE A MORE WESTERLY TRACK WHICH WOULD RESULT IN
GREATER SNOWFALL. STAY TUNED.

BY WEDNESDAY ANY POTENTIAL STORM SHOULD BE WELL OFFSHORE AND FAR
NORTH AND EAST OF OUR REGION. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVING
THROUGH ALONG WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT LOOKS POISED TO CROSS OUR
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT...WHILE THE
MAIN STORY WILL BE MUCH COLDER ARCTIC AIR SURGING SOUTHWARD INTO THE
REGION.

A SMALL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MAY BRIEFLY BUILD IN THURSDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE THE NEXT POTENTIALLY STRONG ARCTIC FRONT COULD USHER
IN THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON THUS FAR STARTING LATE FRIDAY. WE
ARE STILL ABOUT A WEEK AWAY FROM THIS...BUT WILL NOTE THE GFS/ECMWF
HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH SHOWING SUB-500 DECAMETER THICKNESS
VALUES OVER THE REGION BY THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE KALB/KPOU/KPSF/KGFL TERMINALS
THROUGH THE 24 HOUR PERIOD ENDING 06Z SUNDAY. SKIES STARTING OUT
MAINLY CLEAR EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE LATER IN THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY THIS
MORNING...BECOMING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 7-10 KTS BY NOON.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO CONCERNS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS AS ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT OR IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

THE THIRD WINTER SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE SEASON WAS ISSUED
ON FEBRUARY 4TH.

HIGHLIGHTS...REFER TO THE PRODUCTS FOR DETAILS (ALBESFALY):

DUE TO BELOW NORMAL SNOW COVER AND RIVER ICE...POTENTIAL FOR
SNOWMELT AND ICE JAM FLOODING IS LOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

ALTHOUGH WATER SUPPLY LEVELS ARE NOT A CONCERN AT THE MOMENT...THERE
IS CURRENTLY VERY LITTLE SNOW WATER AVAILABLE FOR RESERVOIR RECHARGE
ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. IT WILL TAKE A STEADY SUPPLY OF RAIN AND
SNOW THROUGH SPRING INTO SUMMER FOR RESERVOIRS TO MAINTAIN ADEQUATE
LEVELS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...NAS




000
FXUS61 KBOX 060916
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
416 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY WEATHER THIS WEEKEND WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY. TWO DEVELOPING COASTAL STORMS MAY BRING
ACCUMULATING SNOW ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN
MA. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT BRINGS MUCH CHILLIER AIR FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
4AM UPDATE...

A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT CONTINUES THIS MORNING...AS CHILLY
TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW ANY STANDING WATER/SLUSH TO FREEZE SOLID.
MOTORISTS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR BLACK ICE.

TODAY....

WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO SET UP OVER THE REGION
TODAY. A PASSING HIGH TO OUR SOUTH WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE REGION FOR THIS AFTERNOON. ANTICIPATE GUSTS BETWEEN 15-20
MPH. WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL WILL ALSO BRING SOME MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA RESULTING IN A FILTERED SUNSHINE. GUIDANCE DOES
INDICATE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S BUT WITH THE FRESH
SNOW PACK THAT MAY BE A BIT TO OPTIMISTIC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINLY DOMINATE RESULTING IN QUIET WEATHER.
HOWEVER PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE SLOW TO RELAX WHICH WILL LIMIT
RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT. TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE 20S WITH
PERHAPS LOW READINGS IN AREAS WHERE THE WIND WILL BE CALM.

TOMORROW...

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH WILL DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION ON SUNDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BE DRY BUT MAY BRING IN SOME
CLOUDS. WESTERLY FLOW WILL DOMINATE IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM IN TO THE 40S. HELP AID IN MELTING
SOME OF THE SNOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

BIG PICTURE...

LONGWAVE PATTERN SHOWS RIDGE WEST/TROUGH EAST AS BEFORE...WITH
INCREASING AMPLITUDE EARLY WEEK AND DECREASING AMPLITUDE LATE WEEK.
OVERALL A COLD AND UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  AT
SHORTER WAVE SCALES WE SEE THREE SHORTWAVES AFFECTING THE PATTERN.
THE FIRST IS IN THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY AND GENERATES COASTAL
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINAS SUNDAY. THIS SWINGS WIDE OF OUR
AREA...CROSSING ABOUT 4 DEGREES SOUTH OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK...AND
THEN SWEEPS NORTHEAST JUST SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA. THE SECOND
SHORTWAVE IS MOVING ASHORE IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND WILL CARVE A
DEEP COLD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN USA DURING THE EARLY WEEK.  THE
THIRD SHORTWAVE IS ALONG THE ARCTIC OCEAN COASTLINE AND WILL DROP
SOUTH INTO THE USA MIDWEEK.

OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE MASS FIELDS ARE SIMILAR ON THE BROAD SCALE MOST
OF THE PERIOD. BUT THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS...ESPECIALLY
REGARDING THE SECOND SHORTWAVE AND ITS DEVELOPING COASTAL SYSTEM
TUESDAY. THIS SECOND SHORTWAVE WAS JUST COMING ASHORE AT MEASUREMENT
TIME LAST NIGHT. THE 12Z SATURDAY MODELS SHOULD HAVE A BETTER READ
ON THE SHORTWAVE AND ITS EFFECTS. WE CONTINUE TO FAVOR A MODEL BLEND
ESPECIALLY USING THE GFS AND ECMWF.

THE DAILIES...

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY... COASTAL STORM PASSES WELL OFFSHORE...SOME 4
DEGREES SOUTH OF THE BENCHMARK. NORMALLY THAT WOULD MEAN A SWING AND
A MISS FOR STRIKE THREE. BUT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM QUEBEC
AND ESTABLISHES A PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT SHOULD BRING A NORTHEAST
MARINE FLOW WITH DELTA OF 13-15C. THIS SHOULD AT LEAST BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY. LESS CONFIDENCE ON PCPN
GIVEN MEDIOCRE FORCING AND CHANGING RUN-TO-RUN AMOUNTS.

MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON QPF DURING MONDAY WITH MAIN FOCUS ON CAPE
AND ISLANDS...POSSIBLY EASTERN MASS. WE HAVE BACKED OFF ONSET OF
POPS UNTIL 06-12Z MONDAY AND VALUE OF POPS BY ABOUT 20 PERCENT. THIS
STILL BRINGS POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES IN EASTERN MASS WITH
HIGHEST AMOUNTS CAPE COD/PLYMOUTH CO AREA.

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY... SECOND SHORTWAVE DIGS OVER THE MIDWEST WITH
SURFACE LOW REDEVELOPMENT ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS NEW
COASTAL LOW THEN MOVES PAST NEW ENGLAND. BETTER DYNAMICS AND
RESULTING LIFT SHOULD BE IN PLACE AND WITH DEEPER MOISTURE WOULD
EXPECT THIS TO BE A BETTER CHANCE OF PCPN THAN THE MONDAY OFFSHORE
SYSTEM. BUT THE RESPONSIBLE SHORTWAVE IS JUST NOW MOVING ASHORE AS
NOTED ABOVE. SO STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND ITS
POTENTIAL. WE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... UPPER TROUGH WITH ITS COLD POOL ALOFT
AND CLOUD SHIELD LINGER WEDNESDAY. THE ARCTIC SHORTWAVE THEN SWINGS
THROUGH ON THURSDAY. EXPECT QUITE A FEW CLOUDS DURING THIS PERIOD
WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. CLIPPER LOW THEN DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM
NORTHERN ONTARIO FRIDAY AND BRINGING MORE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS. MIXED LAYER REACHES EITHER SIDE OF 925 MB EACH DAY...A
LITTLE HIGHER THURSDAY BEHIND THE ARCTIC SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE
FRONT. TEMPS ALOFT AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER SUPPORT 30S
WEDNESDAY...20S WEST/32 EAST THURSDAY...AND 20S TO NEAR 30 FRIDAY.
AS NOTED EARLIER...COLD AND UNSETTLED.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. WINDS SHIFT TO THE SW. A FEW
GUSTS BETWEEN 15-20 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

TWO POTENTIAL STORMS DURING THIS PERIOD...EITHER COULD BRING
IFR/LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN SNOW. THE FIRST CHANCE FOR THIS WILL BE
MONDAY...WITH BEST CHANCE ON CAPE COD AND ISLANDS. NORTH-NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL GUST TO 35 KNOTS ALONG THE EASTERN MASS COAST. THE SECOND
CHANCE WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH ALL OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND UNDER THE GUN. CONDITIONS IMPROVE WEDNESDAY TO MVFR CIGS
WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

LINGERING SWELLS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TODAY. SCA LINGERS FOR
A PORTION OF THE DAY...BUT MAY BE ABLE TO BE DROPPED SOONER.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AN
INCREASE IN THE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD IN
RESPONSE. SCA MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW FOR BUILDING
SEAS IN RESPONSE TO GUSTY WINDS.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...A DEVELOPING GALE CENTER WILL PASS WELL
OFFSHORE SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET...BUT STRONG WINDS WILL EXTEND AN
UNUSUAL DISTANCE OUT FROM THE WEATHER SYSTEM. NORTHEAST WINDS OVER
THE WATERS WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE. THIS WILL BUILD SEAS OF 7 TO
11 FEET ON THE EXPOSED WATERS. A GALE WARNING WILL EVENTUALLY BE
NEEDED FOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ALSO EXPECT REDUCED VSBYS
IN RAIN AND SNOW.

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...A SECOND WEATHER SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND MOVE OUTSIDE NANTUCKET. THIS WILL BRING
ANOTHER PERIOD OF NORTHEAST WINDS WITH GUSTS OVER 25 KNOTS. THERE
REMAIN MANY QUESTIONS ABOUT THIS NEXT SYSTEM...AS WELL AS LOW
POTENTIAL FOR WINDS REACHING 35 KNOTS. SEAS WILL REMAIN AT 7 TO 11
FEET.

WEDNESDAY... WINDS DIMINISH AS THE SECOND COASTAL STORM MOVES OFF.
WIND SPEEDS SHOULD GO BELOW 25 KNOTS. ROUGH SEAS WILL LINGER MUCH OF
THE DAY ESPECIALLY ON THE SOUTHERN EXPOSED WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

MONDAY...

THERE IS A FAIRLY HIGH ASTRO TIDE OF 11.2 IN BOSTON LATE MONDAY
MORNING.  NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS FROM LARGE
CIRCULATION OF THE INTENSIFYING OCEAN STORM WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A
1 TO 1.5 SURGE.  SEAS SHOULD BE BUILT UP TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 FEET
BY THEN...SO FEEL THERE IS A DECENT SHOT FOR POCKETS OF MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING ALONG EASTERN MA COAST.  THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR
POCKETS OF MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING...IF THE STORMS ENDS UP A BIT
FASTER AND TRACKING FURTHER WEST THAN CURRENT GUIDANCE INDICATES.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...

MAIN CONCERN IS IF WE END UP WITH A SECOND AREA OF STRONG LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING UP THE COAST...WHICH COULD IMPACT ADDITIONAL HIGH
TIDE CYCLES. LARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE ON WHETHER OR NOT THIS
HAPPENS.  IF SO...WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE TUESDAY NOON HIGH TIDE
CYCLE ACROSS EASTERN MA AS BOSTON HAS AN 11.5 ASTRO TIDE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ254-
     255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KOKX 060910
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
410 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH TODAY AND TONIGHT. DEEP LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK OVER THE ATLANTIC LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AN
ACTIVE WINTER PATTERN WILL THEN SET UP OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE DAY...SUNSHINE AND WEAK WAA WILL HELP
TEMPS RISE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS.

DO EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...POSSIBLY FILTERED THROUGH HIGH
CLOUDS AT TIMES THROUGH THE DAY.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND WINDS WILL
TURN TOWARD THE WEST/SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
SFC HIGH REMAINS NEARBY TONIGHT BUT SHOULD YIELD TO DEVELOPING
AND DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY. TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES MOVES OFF THE SE COAST SUNDAY
AS NEXT NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH
SFC LOW MOVING TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION. DRY WEATHER
CONTINUES WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS AT MOST DURING THIS TIME.

TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD FALL CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS. SOME
RADIATIONAL COOLING COULD TAKE PLACE WITH SNOW PACK AND MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES...BUT LIGHT SW WIND FLOW MAY PREVENT IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING FROM OCCURRING.

ON SUNDAY...TEMPS RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S...SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CHALLENGING FORECAST WITH MANY FEATURES IN PLAY.
ONCE AGAIN...SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVES OFF THE SE
COAST...DRIVING DEEP SFC LOW OFFSHORE...PASSING SOMEWHERE SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE BENCHMARK. THEN LARGE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST...AND YET ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...THIS ONE MUCH CLOSER TO THE AREA.

CONCERN FOR EVENTUAL PLACEMENT OF FIRST LOW OFFSHORE...FOLLOWED
BY NEXT LOW AND TRACK TUESDAY. LARGE MODEL/ENSEMBLE SPREADS ON
QPF/SNOW.

BASED ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...NAM AND SREF MUCH WETTER MONDAY
AS LOW TRACKS FURTHER NORTHWARD COMPARED TO GFS/ECMWF...AND QPF
SHIELD EXTENDS MUCH FURTHER NORTHWESTWARD...OVER THE FORECAST
AREA.

HAVE DECIDED TO NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...WHICH
IS SUPPORTED BY WPC AND LATEST MODELS BLEND SUITE. WOULD EXPECT
PRECIP TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH MONDAY ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
LOW.

EVEN IF THAT DOES NOT OCCUR...LIFT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
TROUGH SHOULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT SNOW BEFORE NEXT
LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.

AS THE INITIAL SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH PIVOTS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST AND DEPARTS TO THE EAST...AND NEXT TROUGH APPROACHES AND
SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...WE COULD BE
LOOKING AT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOW FROM MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW IS QUITE POSSIBLE. CANNOT THOUGH
RULE OUT POSSIBLE HEAVIER QPF IF INGREDIENTS COME TOGETHER FOR
SUCH.

HAVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH SNOW AT TIMES
MAY VERY WELL OCCUR MONDAY THRU WED. HOWEVER...HAVE MUCH
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN EXACT DETAILS AND WHERE ANY HEAVIER SNOW
BANDS SET UP. STAY TUNED.

ARCTIC AIR STILL LOOKS POISED FOR THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF USHERS
IT IN WITH A CLIPPER FRI WHICH WOULD BRING MORE SNOW CHCS.
IN SUMMARY...THERE ARE CHCS FOR PCPN IN EVERY PERIOD OF THE
EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH TODAY AND GRADUALLY WEAKENS
TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND
FORECAST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.TONIGHT-SUNDAY...VFR.
.SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...CHC SUB-VFR AND SNOW...ESPECIALLY EAST OF
CITY. CHC NE GUSTS AROUND 25KT.
.TUESDAY...SUB-VFR WITH SNOW LIKELY...POSSIBLY MIXED PTYPE DURING
THE AFTN AT THE COAST...TAPERING OFF LATE IN THE DAY.
.WEDNESDAY...CHC SUB-VFR WITH -SHSN. NW GUST AROUND 25KT.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS HAVE FALLEN BELOW ADVSY LEVELS...SO HAVE CANCELLED
THE SCA ON THE OCEAN. SUB-ADVSY CONDS WILL PREVAIL ON ALL WATERS
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH. THE HIGH WEAKENS
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRES DEVELOPS OFF THE SE
COAST INTENSIFYING AS IT TRACKS NE. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
SUN NIGHT WITH GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE BEST
CHC FOR GALES CURRENTLY EXISTS ON THE OCEAN WATERS AND EASTERN LI
SOUND/BAYS SO HAVE ISSUED A GALE WATCH FOR THESE ZONES. THE STRONG
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY MON.
OTHERWISE...SCA LIKELY DURING THIS TIME.

SCA IS THEN LIKELY ON MOST OF THE WATERS INTO TUE AS A WEAKER LOW
PRES SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PASS CLOSER TO THE LOCAL AREA. WINDS
THEN DECREASE TEMPORARILY TUE NIGHT...ALTHOUGH SEAS ON THE OCEAN
WILL REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT...BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN ON WED FROM A
TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THRU
MON...AND AGAIN DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MOST IF NOT ALL OF
THE PCPN THAT FALLS LIKELY TO BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW ATTM.

WIDESPREAD PCPN IS POSSIBLE LATE SUN NGT THRU MON...AND AGAIN DURING
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE PCPN THAT FALLS
LIKELY TO BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW ATTM.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEW MOON ON MONDAY AND POTENTIAL FOR NERLY
WINDS MONDAY AND TUE...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TIDES FOR POSSIBLE MINOR
CSTL FLOODING.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ330-340-350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PW
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...JMC/PW
AVIATION...24
MARINE...24
HYDROLOGY...PW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KOKX 060910
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
410 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH TODAY AND TONIGHT. DEEP LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK OVER THE ATLANTIC LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AN
ACTIVE WINTER PATTERN WILL THEN SET UP OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE DAY...SUNSHINE AND WEAK WAA WILL HELP
TEMPS RISE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS.

DO EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...POSSIBLY FILTERED THROUGH HIGH
CLOUDS AT TIMES THROUGH THE DAY.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND WINDS WILL
TURN TOWARD THE WEST/SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
SFC HIGH REMAINS NEARBY TONIGHT BUT SHOULD YIELD TO DEVELOPING
AND DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY. TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES MOVES OFF THE SE COAST SUNDAY
AS NEXT NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH
SFC LOW MOVING TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION. DRY WEATHER
CONTINUES WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS AT MOST DURING THIS TIME.

TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD FALL CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS. SOME
RADIATIONAL COOLING COULD TAKE PLACE WITH SNOW PACK AND MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES...BUT LIGHT SW WIND FLOW MAY PREVENT IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING FROM OCCURRING.

ON SUNDAY...TEMPS RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S...SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CHALLENGING FORECAST WITH MANY FEATURES IN PLAY.
ONCE AGAIN...SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVES OFF THE SE
COAST...DRIVING DEEP SFC LOW OFFSHORE...PASSING SOMEWHERE SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE BENCHMARK. THEN LARGE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST...AND YET ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...THIS ONE MUCH CLOSER TO THE AREA.

CONCERN FOR EVENTUAL PLACEMENT OF FIRST LOW OFFSHORE...FOLLOWED
BY NEXT LOW AND TRACK TUESDAY. LARGE MODEL/ENSEMBLE SPREADS ON
QPF/SNOW.

BASED ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...NAM AND SREF MUCH WETTER MONDAY
AS LOW TRACKS FURTHER NORTHWARD COMPARED TO GFS/ECMWF...AND QPF
SHIELD EXTENDS MUCH FURTHER NORTHWESTWARD...OVER THE FORECAST
AREA.

HAVE DECIDED TO NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...WHICH
IS SUPPORTED BY WPC AND LATEST MODELS BLEND SUITE. WOULD EXPECT
PRECIP TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH MONDAY ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
LOW.

EVEN IF THAT DOES NOT OCCUR...LIFT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
TROUGH SHOULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT SNOW BEFORE NEXT
LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.

AS THE INITIAL SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH PIVOTS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST AND DEPARTS TO THE EAST...AND NEXT TROUGH APPROACHES AND
SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...WE COULD BE
LOOKING AT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOW FROM MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW IS QUITE POSSIBLE. CANNOT THOUGH
RULE OUT POSSIBLE HEAVIER QPF IF INGREDIENTS COME TOGETHER FOR
SUCH.

HAVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH SNOW AT TIMES
MAY VERY WELL OCCUR MONDAY THRU WED. HOWEVER...HAVE MUCH
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN EXACT DETAILS AND WHERE ANY HEAVIER SNOW
BANDS SET UP. STAY TUNED.

ARCTIC AIR STILL LOOKS POISED FOR THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF USHERS
IT IN WITH A CLIPPER FRI WHICH WOULD BRING MORE SNOW CHCS.
IN SUMMARY...THERE ARE CHCS FOR PCPN IN EVERY PERIOD OF THE
EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH TODAY AND GRADUALLY WEAKENS
TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND
FORECAST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.TONIGHT-SUNDAY...VFR.
.SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...CHC SUB-VFR AND SNOW...ESPECIALLY EAST OF
CITY. CHC NE GUSTS AROUND 25KT.
.TUESDAY...SUB-VFR WITH SNOW LIKELY...POSSIBLY MIXED PTYPE DURING
THE AFTN AT THE COAST...TAPERING OFF LATE IN THE DAY.
.WEDNESDAY...CHC SUB-VFR WITH -SHSN. NW GUST AROUND 25KT.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS HAVE FALLEN BELOW ADVSY LEVELS...SO HAVE CANCELLED
THE SCA ON THE OCEAN. SUB-ADVSY CONDS WILL PREVAIL ON ALL WATERS
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH. THE HIGH WEAKENS
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRES DEVELOPS OFF THE SE
COAST INTENSIFYING AS IT TRACKS NE. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
SUN NIGHT WITH GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE BEST
CHC FOR GALES CURRENTLY EXISTS ON THE OCEAN WATERS AND EASTERN LI
SOUND/BAYS SO HAVE ISSUED A GALE WATCH FOR THESE ZONES. THE STRONG
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY MON.
OTHERWISE...SCA LIKELY DURING THIS TIME.

SCA IS THEN LIKELY ON MOST OF THE WATERS INTO TUE AS A WEAKER LOW
PRES SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PASS CLOSER TO THE LOCAL AREA. WINDS
THEN DECREASE TEMPORARILY TUE NIGHT...ALTHOUGH SEAS ON THE OCEAN
WILL REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT...BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN ON WED FROM A
TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THRU
MON...AND AGAIN DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MOST IF NOT ALL OF
THE PCPN THAT FALLS LIKELY TO BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW ATTM.

WIDESPREAD PCPN IS POSSIBLE LATE SUN NGT THRU MON...AND AGAIN DURING
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE PCPN THAT FALLS
LIKELY TO BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW ATTM.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEW MOON ON MONDAY AND POTENTIAL FOR NERLY
WINDS MONDAY AND TUE...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TIDES FOR POSSIBLE MINOR
CSTL FLOODING.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ330-340-350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PW
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...JMC/PW
AVIATION...24
MARINE...24
HYDROLOGY...PW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KOKX 060910
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
410 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH TODAY AND TONIGHT. DEEP LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK OVER THE ATLANTIC LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AN
ACTIVE WINTER PATTERN WILL THEN SET UP OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE DAY...SUNSHINE AND WEAK WAA WILL HELP
TEMPS RISE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS.

DO EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...POSSIBLY FILTERED THROUGH HIGH
CLOUDS AT TIMES THROUGH THE DAY.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND WINDS WILL
TURN TOWARD THE WEST/SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
SFC HIGH REMAINS NEARBY TONIGHT BUT SHOULD YIELD TO DEVELOPING
AND DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY. TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES MOVES OFF THE SE COAST SUNDAY
AS NEXT NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH
SFC LOW MOVING TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION. DRY WEATHER
CONTINUES WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS AT MOST DURING THIS TIME.

TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD FALL CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS. SOME
RADIATIONAL COOLING COULD TAKE PLACE WITH SNOW PACK AND MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES...BUT LIGHT SW WIND FLOW MAY PREVENT IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING FROM OCCURRING.

ON SUNDAY...TEMPS RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S...SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CHALLENGING FORECAST WITH MANY FEATURES IN PLAY.
ONCE AGAIN...SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVES OFF THE SE
COAST...DRIVING DEEP SFC LOW OFFSHORE...PASSING SOMEWHERE SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE BENCHMARK. THEN LARGE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST...AND YET ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...THIS ONE MUCH CLOSER TO THE AREA.

CONCERN FOR EVENTUAL PLACEMENT OF FIRST LOW OFFSHORE...FOLLOWED
BY NEXT LOW AND TRACK TUESDAY. LARGE MODEL/ENSEMBLE SPREADS ON
QPF/SNOW.

BASED ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...NAM AND SREF MUCH WETTER MONDAY
AS LOW TRACKS FURTHER NORTHWARD COMPARED TO GFS/ECMWF...AND QPF
SHIELD EXTENDS MUCH FURTHER NORTHWESTWARD...OVER THE FORECAST
AREA.

HAVE DECIDED TO NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...WHICH
IS SUPPORTED BY WPC AND LATEST MODELS BLEND SUITE. WOULD EXPECT
PRECIP TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH MONDAY ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
LOW.

EVEN IF THAT DOES NOT OCCUR...LIFT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
TROUGH SHOULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT SNOW BEFORE NEXT
LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.

AS THE INITIAL SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH PIVOTS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST AND DEPARTS TO THE EAST...AND NEXT TROUGH APPROACHES AND
SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...WE COULD BE
LOOKING AT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOW FROM MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW IS QUITE POSSIBLE. CANNOT THOUGH
RULE OUT POSSIBLE HEAVIER QPF IF INGREDIENTS COME TOGETHER FOR
SUCH.

HAVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH SNOW AT TIMES
MAY VERY WELL OCCUR MONDAY THRU WED. HOWEVER...HAVE MUCH
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN EXACT DETAILS AND WHERE ANY HEAVIER SNOW
BANDS SET UP. STAY TUNED.

ARCTIC AIR STILL LOOKS POISED FOR THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF USHERS
IT IN WITH A CLIPPER FRI WHICH WOULD BRING MORE SNOW CHCS.
IN SUMMARY...THERE ARE CHCS FOR PCPN IN EVERY PERIOD OF THE
EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH TODAY AND GRADUALLY WEAKENS
TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND
FORECAST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.TONIGHT-SUNDAY...VFR.
.SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...CHC SUB-VFR AND SNOW...ESPECIALLY EAST OF
CITY. CHC NE GUSTS AROUND 25KT.
.TUESDAY...SUB-VFR WITH SNOW LIKELY...POSSIBLY MIXED PTYPE DURING
THE AFTN AT THE COAST...TAPERING OFF LATE IN THE DAY.
.WEDNESDAY...CHC SUB-VFR WITH -SHSN. NW GUST AROUND 25KT.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS HAVE FALLEN BELOW ADVSY LEVELS...SO HAVE CANCELLED
THE SCA ON THE OCEAN. SUB-ADVSY CONDS WILL PREVAIL ON ALL WATERS
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH. THE HIGH WEAKENS
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRES DEVELOPS OFF THE SE
COAST INTENSIFYING AS IT TRACKS NE. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
SUN NIGHT WITH GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE BEST
CHC FOR GALES CURRENTLY EXISTS ON THE OCEAN WATERS AND EASTERN LI
SOUND/BAYS SO HAVE ISSUED A GALE WATCH FOR THESE ZONES. THE STRONG
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY MON.
OTHERWISE...SCA LIKELY DURING THIS TIME.

SCA IS THEN LIKELY ON MOST OF THE WATERS INTO TUE AS A WEAKER LOW
PRES SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PASS CLOSER TO THE LOCAL AREA. WINDS
THEN DECREASE TEMPORARILY TUE NIGHT...ALTHOUGH SEAS ON THE OCEAN
WILL REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT...BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN ON WED FROM A
TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THRU
MON...AND AGAIN DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MOST IF NOT ALL OF
THE PCPN THAT FALLS LIKELY TO BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW ATTM.

WIDESPREAD PCPN IS POSSIBLE LATE SUN NGT THRU MON...AND AGAIN DURING
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE PCPN THAT FALLS
LIKELY TO BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW ATTM.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEW MOON ON MONDAY AND POTENTIAL FOR NERLY
WINDS MONDAY AND TUE...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TIDES FOR POSSIBLE MINOR
CSTL FLOODING.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ330-340-350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PW
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...JMC/PW
AVIATION...24
MARINE...24
HYDROLOGY...PW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KALY 060908
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
408 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER OVER THE
WEEKEND. A FAST MOVING...CLIPPER...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS
TO OUR NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON THE LOCAL
AREA. SOME SNOW IS POSSIBLE FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EXTENDING NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY
THAT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHWARD AS LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THE DAY. SOME MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS ARE SPREADING INTO THE REGION AND WE SHOULD SEE
FILTERED SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS. EVEN WITH
THE FILTERED SUN...TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB TO HIGHS IN THE MID
30S TO LOWER 40S

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL BE IN CONTROL TONIGHT BUT A COLD
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM CANADA BY DAYBREAK AND THROUGH
THE DAY SUNDAY AS UPPER ENERGY TRACKS EAST THROUGH SE CANADA. MORE
INTERVALS OF HIGH CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS.
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A LITTLE AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT BUT VERY LIGHT WINDS SUNDAY COULD LIMIT MIXING. HIGHS
SUNDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S...SOME 30S IN NORTHERN AREAS.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND OFFSHORE...WITH A GENERAL
CONSENSUS FROM SOURCES OF GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES FOR THE PRIMARY
UPPER ENERGY AND LOW LEVEL FORCING TO TRACK WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF
NEW ENGLAND. THERE ARE STILL SOME UNCERTAINTIES...THOUGH...BECAUSE
DIGGING...TRAILING...STRONG NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY MAY HAVE SOME
INFLUENCE IN HOW FAR NORTH AND WEST THE STEADIER PRECIPITATION
GETS...DEPENDING ON ITS INFLUENCE ON THE TRACK OF THE SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM...IF AT ALL.

ALSO...AS THE COASTAL SYSTEM DEVELOPS...THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT THERE COULD BE A SOMEWHAT LONG FETCH OF EASTERLY
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OFF THE OCEAN INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. WHICH
COULD RESULT IN A MORE EXPANDED PRECIPITATION SHIELD. LOTS OF
IFS...WHICH AGAIN ILLUSTRATES THE UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT. AT THE
VERY LEAST...THE DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY AND MOISTURE FROM
THE GREAT LAKES COULD BRING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT TO THE REGION. TIME WILL TELL HOW
EVERYTHING SORTS OUT IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

SO...GENERALLY BECOMING CLOUDY SUNDAY NIGHT AND STAYING MAINLY
CLOUDY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. ON MONDAY...INDICATING HIGH
CHANCES BORDERING ON LIKELY FOR SNOW IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
NW CT. SMALLER CHANCES TO THE SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN VT
WITH SLIGHT CHANCES A LITTLE NORTH AND WEST OF THOSE AREAS. BY
MONDAY NIGHT...MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE HIGH CHANCES FOR SNOW. HIGHS
MONDAY IN THE LOWER 30S NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 30S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MORE WINTER LIKE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE LONG TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST...WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING FROM NEAR
NORMAL ON TUESDAY TO BELOW NORMAL TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
THERE WILL BE MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS
DURING THE PERIOD AS WELL.

THE PERIOD STARTS OUT ON TUESDAY WITH A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN
ACROSS THE CONUS AND A SPRAWLING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATING SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT WILL SPAWN A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THERE
IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE EVENTUAL STRENGTH OF
THIS SYSTEM...AS IT MAY NOT HAVE MUCH BAROCLINICITY TO WORK WITH.
THIS WILL STILL BE A SYSTEM TO KEEP AN EYE ON...AS DEPENDING ON THE
EXACT TRACK COULD BRING AT LEAST A LIGHT SNOWFALL TO PARTS OF THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. WILL
MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR NOW...WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS ANY
SNOWFALL WILL BE LIGHT...HOWEVER THERE ARE SEVERAL FACTORS THAT MAY
ALLOW THE STORM TO TAKE A MORE WESTERLY TRACK WHICH WOULD RESULT IN
GREATER SNOWFALL. STAY TUNED.

BY WEDNESDAY ANY POTENTIAL STORM SHOULD BE WELL OFFSHORE AND FAR
NORTH AND EAST OF OUR REGION. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVING
THROUGH ALONG WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT LOOKS POISED TO CROSS OUR
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT...WHILE THE
MAIN STORY WILL BE MUCH COLDER ARCTIC AIR SURGING SOUTHWARD INTO THE
REGION.

A SMALL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MAY BRIEFLY BUILD IN THURSDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE THE NEXT POTENTIALLY STRONG ARCTIC FRONT COULD USHER
IN THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON THUS FAR STARTING LATE FRIDAY. WE
ARE STILL ABOUT A WEEK AWAY FROM THIS...BUT WILL NOTE THE GFS/ECMWF
HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH SHOWING SUB-500 DECAMETER THICKNESS
VALUES OVER THE REGION BY THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE KALB/KPOU/KPSF/KGFL TERMINALS
THROUGH THE 24 HOUR PERIOD ENDING 06Z SUNDAY. SKIES STARTING OUT
MAINLY CLEAR EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE LATER IN THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY THIS
MORNING...BECOMING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 7-10 KTS BY NOON.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO CONCERNS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS AS ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT OR IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

THE THIRD WINTER SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE SEASON WAS ISSUED
ON FEBRUARY 4TH.

HIGHLIGHTS...REFER TO THE PRODUCTS FOR DETAILS (ALBESFALY):

DUE TO BELOW NORMAL SNOW COVER AND RIVER ICE...POTENTIAL FOR
SNOWMELT AND ICE JAM FLOODING IS LOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

ALTHOUGH WATER SUPPLY LEVELS ARE NOT A CONCERN AT THE MOMENT...THERE
IS CURRENTLY VERY LITTLE SNOW WATER AVAILABLE FOR RESERVOIR RECHARGE
ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. IT WILL TAKE A STEADY SUPPLY OF RAIN AND
SNOW THROUGH SPRING INTO SUMMER FOR RESERVOIRS TO MAINTAIN ADEQUATE
LEVELS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...NAS




000
FXUS61 KALY 060908
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
408 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER OVER THE
WEEKEND. A FAST MOVING...CLIPPER...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS
TO OUR NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON THE LOCAL
AREA. SOME SNOW IS POSSIBLE FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EXTENDING NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY
THAT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHWARD AS LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THE DAY. SOME MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS ARE SPREADING INTO THE REGION AND WE SHOULD SEE
FILTERED SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS. EVEN WITH
THE FILTERED SUN...TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB TO HIGHS IN THE MID
30S TO LOWER 40S

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL BE IN CONTROL TONIGHT BUT A COLD
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM CANADA BY DAYBREAK AND THROUGH
THE DAY SUNDAY AS UPPER ENERGY TRACKS EAST THROUGH SE CANADA. MORE
INTERVALS OF HIGH CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS.
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A LITTLE AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT BUT VERY LIGHT WINDS SUNDAY COULD LIMIT MIXING. HIGHS
SUNDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S...SOME 30S IN NORTHERN AREAS.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND OFFSHORE...WITH A GENERAL
CONSENSUS FROM SOURCES OF GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES FOR THE PRIMARY
UPPER ENERGY AND LOW LEVEL FORCING TO TRACK WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF
NEW ENGLAND. THERE ARE STILL SOME UNCERTAINTIES...THOUGH...BECAUSE
DIGGING...TRAILING...STRONG NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY MAY HAVE SOME
INFLUENCE IN HOW FAR NORTH AND WEST THE STEADIER PRECIPITATION
GETS...DEPENDING ON ITS INFLUENCE ON THE TRACK OF THE SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM...IF AT ALL.

ALSO...AS THE COASTAL SYSTEM DEVELOPS...THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT THERE COULD BE A SOMEWHAT LONG FETCH OF EASTERLY
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OFF THE OCEAN INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. WHICH
COULD RESULT IN A MORE EXPANDED PRECIPITATION SHIELD. LOTS OF
IFS...WHICH AGAIN ILLUSTRATES THE UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT. AT THE
VERY LEAST...THE DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY AND MOISTURE FROM
THE GREAT LAKES COULD BRING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT TO THE REGION. TIME WILL TELL HOW
EVERYTHING SORTS OUT IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

SO...GENERALLY BECOMING CLOUDY SUNDAY NIGHT AND STAYING MAINLY
CLOUDY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. ON MONDAY...INDICATING HIGH
CHANCES BORDERING ON LIKELY FOR SNOW IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
NW CT. SMALLER CHANCES TO THE SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN VT
WITH SLIGHT CHANCES A LITTLE NORTH AND WEST OF THOSE AREAS. BY
MONDAY NIGHT...MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE HIGH CHANCES FOR SNOW. HIGHS
MONDAY IN THE LOWER 30S NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 30S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MORE WINTER LIKE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE LONG TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST...WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING FROM NEAR
NORMAL ON TUESDAY TO BELOW NORMAL TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
THERE WILL BE MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS
DURING THE PERIOD AS WELL.

THE PERIOD STARTS OUT ON TUESDAY WITH A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN
ACROSS THE CONUS AND A SPRAWLING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATING SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT WILL SPAWN A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THERE
IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE EVENTUAL STRENGTH OF
THIS SYSTEM...AS IT MAY NOT HAVE MUCH BAROCLINICITY TO WORK WITH.
THIS WILL STILL BE A SYSTEM TO KEEP AN EYE ON...AS DEPENDING ON THE
EXACT TRACK COULD BRING AT LEAST A LIGHT SNOWFALL TO PARTS OF THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. WILL
MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR NOW...WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS ANY
SNOWFALL WILL BE LIGHT...HOWEVER THERE ARE SEVERAL FACTORS THAT MAY
ALLOW THE STORM TO TAKE A MORE WESTERLY TRACK WHICH WOULD RESULT IN
GREATER SNOWFALL. STAY TUNED.

BY WEDNESDAY ANY POTENTIAL STORM SHOULD BE WELL OFFSHORE AND FAR
NORTH AND EAST OF OUR REGION. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVING
THROUGH ALONG WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT LOOKS POISED TO CROSS OUR
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT...WHILE THE
MAIN STORY WILL BE MUCH COLDER ARCTIC AIR SURGING SOUTHWARD INTO THE
REGION.

A SMALL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MAY BRIEFLY BUILD IN THURSDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE THE NEXT POTENTIALLY STRONG ARCTIC FRONT COULD USHER
IN THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON THUS FAR STARTING LATE FRIDAY. WE
ARE STILL ABOUT A WEEK AWAY FROM THIS...BUT WILL NOTE THE GFS/ECMWF
HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH SHOWING SUB-500 DECAMETER THICKNESS
VALUES OVER THE REGION BY THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE KALB/KPOU/KPSF/KGFL TERMINALS
THROUGH THE 24 HOUR PERIOD ENDING 06Z SUNDAY. SKIES STARTING OUT
MAINLY CLEAR EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE LATER IN THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY THIS
MORNING...BECOMING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 7-10 KTS BY NOON.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO CONCERNS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS AS ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT OR IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

THE THIRD WINTER SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE SEASON WAS ISSUED
ON FEBRUARY 4TH.

HIGHLIGHTS...REFER TO THE PRODUCTS FOR DETAILS (ALBESFALY):

DUE TO BELOW NORMAL SNOW COVER AND RIVER ICE...POTENTIAL FOR
SNOWMELT AND ICE JAM FLOODING IS LOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

ALTHOUGH WATER SUPPLY LEVELS ARE NOT A CONCERN AT THE MOMENT...THERE
IS CURRENTLY VERY LITTLE SNOW WATER AVAILABLE FOR RESERVOIR RECHARGE
ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. IT WILL TAKE A STEADY SUPPLY OF RAIN AND
SNOW THROUGH SPRING INTO SUMMER FOR RESERVOIRS TO MAINTAIN ADEQUATE
LEVELS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...NAS



000
FXUS61 KALY 060908
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
408 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER OVER THE
WEEKEND. A FAST MOVING...CLIPPER...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS
TO OUR NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON THE LOCAL
AREA. SOME SNOW IS POSSIBLE FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EXTENDING NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY
THAT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHWARD AS LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THE DAY. SOME MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS ARE SPREADING INTO THE REGION AND WE SHOULD SEE
FILTERED SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS. EVEN WITH
THE FILTERED SUN...TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB TO HIGHS IN THE MID
30S TO LOWER 40S

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL BE IN CONTROL TONIGHT BUT A COLD
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM CANADA BY DAYBREAK AND THROUGH
THE DAY SUNDAY AS UPPER ENERGY TRACKS EAST THROUGH SE CANADA. MORE
INTERVALS OF HIGH CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS.
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A LITTLE AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT BUT VERY LIGHT WINDS SUNDAY COULD LIMIT MIXING. HIGHS
SUNDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S...SOME 30S IN NORTHERN AREAS.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND OFFSHORE...WITH A GENERAL
CONSENSUS FROM SOURCES OF GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES FOR THE PRIMARY
UPPER ENERGY AND LOW LEVEL FORCING TO TRACK WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF
NEW ENGLAND. THERE ARE STILL SOME UNCERTAINTIES...THOUGH...BECAUSE
DIGGING...TRAILING...STRONG NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY MAY HAVE SOME
INFLUENCE IN HOW FAR NORTH AND WEST THE STEADIER PRECIPITATION
GETS...DEPENDING ON ITS INFLUENCE ON THE TRACK OF THE SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM...IF AT ALL.

ALSO...AS THE COASTAL SYSTEM DEVELOPS...THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT THERE COULD BE A SOMEWHAT LONG FETCH OF EASTERLY
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OFF THE OCEAN INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. WHICH
COULD RESULT IN A MORE EXPANDED PRECIPITATION SHIELD. LOTS OF
IFS...WHICH AGAIN ILLUSTRATES THE UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT. AT THE
VERY LEAST...THE DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY AND MOISTURE FROM
THE GREAT LAKES COULD BRING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT TO THE REGION. TIME WILL TELL HOW
EVERYTHING SORTS OUT IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

SO...GENERALLY BECOMING CLOUDY SUNDAY NIGHT AND STAYING MAINLY
CLOUDY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. ON MONDAY...INDICATING HIGH
CHANCES BORDERING ON LIKELY FOR SNOW IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
NW CT. SMALLER CHANCES TO THE SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN VT
WITH SLIGHT CHANCES A LITTLE NORTH AND WEST OF THOSE AREAS. BY
MONDAY NIGHT...MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE HIGH CHANCES FOR SNOW. HIGHS
MONDAY IN THE LOWER 30S NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 30S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MORE WINTER LIKE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE LONG TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST...WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING FROM NEAR
NORMAL ON TUESDAY TO BELOW NORMAL TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
THERE WILL BE MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS
DURING THE PERIOD AS WELL.

THE PERIOD STARTS OUT ON TUESDAY WITH A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN
ACROSS THE CONUS AND A SPRAWLING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATING SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT WILL SPAWN A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THERE
IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE EVENTUAL STRENGTH OF
THIS SYSTEM...AS IT MAY NOT HAVE MUCH BAROCLINICITY TO WORK WITH.
THIS WILL STILL BE A SYSTEM TO KEEP AN EYE ON...AS DEPENDING ON THE
EXACT TRACK COULD BRING AT LEAST A LIGHT SNOWFALL TO PARTS OF THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. WILL
MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR NOW...WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS ANY
SNOWFALL WILL BE LIGHT...HOWEVER THERE ARE SEVERAL FACTORS THAT MAY
ALLOW THE STORM TO TAKE A MORE WESTERLY TRACK WHICH WOULD RESULT IN
GREATER SNOWFALL. STAY TUNED.

BY WEDNESDAY ANY POTENTIAL STORM SHOULD BE WELL OFFSHORE AND FAR
NORTH AND EAST OF OUR REGION. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVING
THROUGH ALONG WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT LOOKS POISED TO CROSS OUR
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT...WHILE THE
MAIN STORY WILL BE MUCH COLDER ARCTIC AIR SURGING SOUTHWARD INTO THE
REGION.

A SMALL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MAY BRIEFLY BUILD IN THURSDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE THE NEXT POTENTIALLY STRONG ARCTIC FRONT COULD USHER
IN THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON THUS FAR STARTING LATE FRIDAY. WE
ARE STILL ABOUT A WEEK AWAY FROM THIS...BUT WILL NOTE THE GFS/ECMWF
HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH SHOWING SUB-500 DECAMETER THICKNESS
VALUES OVER THE REGION BY THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE KALB/KPOU/KPSF/KGFL TERMINALS
THROUGH THE 24 HOUR PERIOD ENDING 06Z SUNDAY. SKIES STARTING OUT
MAINLY CLEAR EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE LATER IN THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY THIS
MORNING...BECOMING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 7-10 KTS BY NOON.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO CONCERNS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS AS ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT OR IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

THE THIRD WINTER SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE SEASON WAS ISSUED
ON FEBRUARY 4TH.

HIGHLIGHTS...REFER TO THE PRODUCTS FOR DETAILS (ALBESFALY):

DUE TO BELOW NORMAL SNOW COVER AND RIVER ICE...POTENTIAL FOR
SNOWMELT AND ICE JAM FLOODING IS LOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

ALTHOUGH WATER SUPPLY LEVELS ARE NOT A CONCERN AT THE MOMENT...THERE
IS CURRENTLY VERY LITTLE SNOW WATER AVAILABLE FOR RESERVOIR RECHARGE
ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. IT WILL TAKE A STEADY SUPPLY OF RAIN AND
SNOW THROUGH SPRING INTO SUMMER FOR RESERVOIRS TO MAINTAIN ADEQUATE
LEVELS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...NAS




000
FXUS61 KALY 060900
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
400 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVERNIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE
OUR WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND. A FAST MOVING...CLIPPER...LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
LITTLE IMPACT ON THE LOCAL AREA. SOME SNOW IS POSSIBLE FOR MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EXTENDING NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY
THAT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHWARD AS LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THE DAY. SOME MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS ARE SPREADING INTO THE REGION AND WE SHOULD SEE
FILTERED SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS. EVEN WITH
THE FILTERED SUN...TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB TO HIGHS IN THE MID
30S TO LOWER 40S

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL BE IN CONTROL TONIGHT BUT A COLD
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM CANADA BY DAYBREAK AND THROUGH
THE DAY SUNDAY AS UPPER ENERGY TRACKS EAST THROUGH SE CANADA. MORE
INTERVALS OF HIGH CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS.
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A LITTLE AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT BUT VERY LIGHT WINDS SUNDAY COULD LIMIT MIXING. HIGHS
SUNDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S...SOME 30S IN NORTHERN AREAS.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND OFFSHORE...WITH A GENERAL
CONSENSUS FROM SOURCES OF GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES FOR THE PRIMARY
UPPER ENERGY AND LOW LEVEL FORCING TO TRACK WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF
NEW ENGLAND. THERE ARE STILL SOME UNCERTAINTIES...THOUGH...BECAUSE
DIGGING...TRAILING...STRONG NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY MAY HAVE SOME
INFLUENCE IN HOW FAR NORTH AND WEST THE STEADIER PRECIPITATION
GETS...DEPENDING ON ITS INFLUENCE ON THE TRACK OF THE SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM...IF AT ALL.

ALSO...AS THE COASTAL SYSTEM DEVELOPS...THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT THERE COULD BE A SOMEWHAT LONG FETCH OF EASTERLY
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OFF THE OCEAN INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. WHICH
COULD RESULT IN A MORE EXPANDED PRECIPITATION SHIELD. LOTS OF
IFS...WHICH AGAIN ILLUSTRATES THE UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT. AT THE
VERY LEAST...THE DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY AND MOISTURE FROM
THE GREAT LAKES COULD BRING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT TO THE REGION. TIME WILL TELL HOW
EVERYTHING SORTS OUT IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

SO...GENERALLY BECOMING CLOUDY SUNDAY NIGHT AND STAYING MAINLY
CLOUDY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. INDICATING HIGH CHANCES BORDERING
ON LIKELY FOR SNOW IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. SMALLER CHANCES
TO THE SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN VT WITH SLIGHT CHANCES A
LITTLE NORTH AND WEST OF THOSE AREAS. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE LOWER
30S NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 30S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MORE WINTER LIKE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE LONG TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST...WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING FROM NEAR
NORMAL ON TUESDAY TO BELOW NORMAL TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
THERE WILL BE MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS
DURING THE PERIOD AS WELL.

THE PERIOD STARTS OUT ON TUESDAY WITH A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN
ACROSS THE CONUS AND A SPRAWLING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATING SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT WILL SPAWN A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THERE
IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE EVENTUAL STRENGTH OF
THIS SYSTEM...AS IT MAY NOT HAVE MUCH BAROCLINICITY TO WORK WITH.
THIS WILL STILL BE A SYSTEM TO KEEP AN EYE ON...AS DEPENDING ON THE
EXACT TRACK COULD BRING AT LEAST A LIGHT SNOWFALL TO PARTS OF THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. WILL
MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR NOW...WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS ANY
SNOWFALL WILL BE LIGHT...HOWEVER THERE ARE SEVERAL FACTORS THAT MAY
ALLOW THE STORM TO TAKE A MORE WESTERLY TRACK WHICH WOULD RESULT IN
GREATER SNOWFALL. STAY TUNED.

BY WEDNESDAY ANY POTENTIAL STORM SHOULD BE WELL OFFSHORE AND FAR
NORTH AND EAST OF OUR REGION. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVING
THROUGH ALONG WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT LOOKS POISED TO CROSS OUR
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT...WHILE THE
MAIN STORY WILL BE MUCH COLDER ARCTIC AIR SURGING SOUTHWARD INTO THE
REGION.

A SMALL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MAY BRIEFLY BUILD IN THURSDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE THE NEXT POTENTIALLY STRONG ARCTIC FRONT COULD USHER
IN THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON THUS FAR STARTING LATE FRIDAY. WE
ARE STILL ABOUT A WEEK AWAY FROM THIS...BUT WILL NOTE THE GFS/ECMWF
HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH SHOWING SUB-500 DECAMETER THICKNESS
VALUES OVER THE REGION BY THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE KALB/KPOU/KPSF/KGFL TERMINALS
THROUGH THE 24 HOUR PERIOD ENDING 06Z SUNDAY. SKIES STARTING OUT
MAINLY CLEAR EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE LATER IN THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY THIS
MORNING...BECOMING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 7-10 KTS BY NOON.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO CONCERNS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS AS ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT OR IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

THE THIRD WINTER SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE SEASON WAS ISSUED
ON FEBRUARY 4TH.

HIGHLIGHTS...REFER TO THE PRODUCTS FOR DETAILS (ALBESFALY):

DUE TO BELOW NORMAL SNOW COVER AND RIVER ICE...POTENTIAL FOR
SNOWMELT AND ICE JAM FLOODING IS LOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

ALTHOUGH WATER SUPPLY LEVELS ARE NOT A CONCERN AT THE MOMENT...THERE
IS CURRENTLY VERY LITTLE SNOW WATER AVAILABLE FOR RESERVOIR RECHARGE
ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. IT WILL TAKE A STEADY SUPPLY OF RAIN AND
SNOW THROUGH SPRING INTO SUMMER FOR RESERVOIRS TO MAINTAIN ADEQUATE
LEVELS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...NAS




000
FXUS61 KBOX 060855
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
355 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY WEATHER THIS WEEKEND WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY. A PERIOD OR TWO OF ACCUMULATING SNOW IS
LIKELY MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN MA...BUT ITS
UNCERTAIN IF THIS WILL MAINLY BE A NUISANCE EVENT OR A SIGNIFICANT
WINTER STORM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

4AM UPDATE...

A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT CONTINUES THIS MORNING...AS CHILLY
TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW ANY STANDING WATER/SLUSH TO FREEZE SOLID.
MOTORISTS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR BLACK ICE.

TODAY....

WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO SET UP OVER THE REGION
TODAY. A PASSING HIGH TO OUR SOUTH WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE REGION FOR THIS AFTERNOON. ANTICIPATE GUSTS BETWEEN 15-20
MPH. WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL WILL ALSO BRING SOME MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA RESULTING IN A FILTERED SUNSHINE. GUIDANCE DOES
INDICATE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S BUT WITH THE FRESH
SNOW PACK THAT MAY BE A BIT TO OPTIMISTIC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...

TONIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINLY DOMINATE RESULTING IN QUIET WEATHER.
HOWEVER PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE SLOW TO RELAX WHICH WILL LIMIT
RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT. TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE 20S WITH
PERHAPS LOW READINGS IN AREAS WHERE THE WIND WILL BE CALM.

TOMORROW...

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH WILL DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION ON SUNDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BE DRY BUT MAY BRING IN SOME
CLOUDS. WESTERLY FLOW WILL DOMINATE IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM IN TO THE 40S. HELP AID IN MELTING
SOME OF THE SNOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY WITH RELATIVELY MILD TEMPS SUN
* PERIOD OR TWO OF ACCUMULATING SNOW LIKELY MON-WED ESPECIALLY COAST
* UNCERTAIN IF MON-WED IS NUISANCE SNOW OR SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM

DETAILS...

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...

WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER.  LOW TEMPS
SAT NIGHT MAINLY IN THE 20S...BUT SOME UPPER TEENS POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE NORMALLY COLDER OUTLYING LOCATIONS.  PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON
SUNDAY AND WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD ALLOW MUCH OF THE REGION TO SEE
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 40S.

LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

EXTREMELY COMPLEX AND DIFFICULT FORECAST OVER THIS TIME PERIOD.  A
COUPLE OF POTENT SHORTWAVES WILL CARVE OUT A DEEP EAST COAST TROUGH.
THERE IS SO MUCH ENERGY IN THE FLOW THAT THE MODELS ARE GOING TO
HAVE A TOUGH TIME ON RESOLVING WHAT EXACTLY UNFOLDS.

FIRST THING IS FIRST...AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE WILL EMERGE OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AND RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST. CURRENT
INDICATIONS TAKE THE STORM SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK.  NOW OF
COURSE THAT IS 72+ HOURS OUT...SO A TRACK CLOSER TO THE COAST IS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE AND WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.  HOWEVER...EVEN IF
THE STORM PASSES WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK...MAY STILL END UP
WITH A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW EVENT ESPECIALLY ON THE COAST.  THIS
STORM LOOKS TO HAVE A FAIRLY BROAD CIRCULATION WITH 35 TO 50 KNOTS
OF ENE FLOW AT 850 MB...SO ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY FOR AT LEAST
THE COASTAL PLAIN.  ALSO...SOME LAND/SEA INTERFACE AND OCEAN
ENHANCEMENT MAY OCCUR IN EASTERN MA.

A SECOND POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL DROP DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
WILL ALLOW LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND
TRACK NORTHEAST TUE INTO EARLY WED.  A LOT OF WHAT HAPPENS WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE AFFECTED BY THE STRENGTH/TRACK OF THE FIRST SYSTEM ON
MONDAY.  THERE ARE A WIDE RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES...FROM A GLANCING
BLOW...TO A STRONG NOREASTER AND EVEN AN INVERTED TROUGH SETUP.

TO SUM UP...THE MAIN IDEA IS THAT WE ARE LIKELY TO RECEIVE AT LEAST
SOME SNOW AT TIMES MONDAY INTO WED.  WHETHER OR NOT WE SEE A
SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM REMAINS TO BE SEEN...BUT AS MENTIONED IN
THE PREVIOUS PARAGRAPHS ALL OPTIONS ARE ON THE TABLE.  WE ARE LIKELY
TO SEE AT LEAST SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...

LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY OVER THIS TIME FRAME.  WILL HAVE TO WATCH A WAVE
OR TWO OF LOW PRESSURE THAT MAY END UP BRINGING A BIT MORE
SNOW...BUT MUCH OF THIS PERIOD MAY END UP DRY.  GIVEN LOW
CONFIDENCE...WILL KEEP POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

TOMORROW...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR. WINDS SHIFT TO THE SW. A
FEW GUSTS BETWEEN 15-20 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE ESPECIALLY ON TIMING.
PERIOD OR TWO OF SNOW LIKELY IN THIS TIME FRAME...SO WILL PROBABLY
SEE SOME IFR CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST ON MON. NORTHEAST
WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS LIKELY ON MONDAY ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

LINGERING SWELLS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TODAY. SCA LINGERS FOR
A PORTION OF THE DAY...BUT MAY BE ABLE TO BE DROPPED SOONER.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AN
INCREASE IN THE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD IN
RESPONSE. SCA MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW FOR BUILDING
SEAS IN RESPONSE TO GUSTY WINDS.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LEFT OVER 5 FOOT SWELL
MAY LINGER INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS OUR EASTERN OUTER-
WATERS.  OTHERWISE...WINDS/SEAS WILL BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS WITH A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  GALE FORCE NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS
LIKELY AS A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIKELY TRACKS
SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK.  THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY FOR A PERIOD
OF STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS IF THAT SYSTEM TRACKS CLOSER TO THE COAST
THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED. SEAS LIKELY BUILD TO AT LEAST 15 FEET
ACROSS OUR EASTERN OUTER-WATERS WITH LONG NORTHEAST FETCH AND GOOD
MIXING.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.  AT THE VERY LEAST NORTHEAST
SMALL CRAFT WIND GUSTS AND HIGH SEAS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUE EVENING.
HOWEVER...POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER WIND GUSTS DEPENDING ON STRENGTH
AND LOCATION OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.  BY WEDNESDAY WIND
GUSTS AND SEAS ARE QUITE UNCERTAIN...DEPENDING ON WHAT HAPPENS WITH
THAT SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
MONDAY...

THERE IS A FAIRLY HIGH ASTRO TIDE OF 11.2 IN BOSTON LATE MONDAY
MORNING.  NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS FROM LARGE
CIRCULATION OF THE INTENSIFYING OCEAN STORM WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A
1 TO 1.5 SURGE.  SEAS SHOULD BE BUILT UP TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 FEET
BY THEN...SO FEEL THERE IS A DECENT SHOT FOR POCKETS OF MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING ALONG EASTERN MA COAST.  THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR
POCKETS OF MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING...IF THE STORMS ENDS UP A BIT
FASTER AND TRACKING FURTHER WEST THAN CURRENT GUIDANCE INDICATES.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...

MAIN CONCERN IS IF WE END UP WITH A SECOND AREA OF STRONG LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING UP THE COAST...WHICH COULD IMPACT ADDITIONAL HIGH
TIDE CYCLES. LARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE ON WHETHER OR NOT THIS
HAPPENS.  IF SO...WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE TUESDAY NOON HIGH TIDE
CYCLE ACROSS EASTERN MA AS BOSTON HAS AN 11.5 ASTRO TIDE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ254-
     255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...FRANK/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...FRANK/DUNTEN
MARINE...FRANK/DUNTEN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...STAFF




000
FXUS61 KALY 060537
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1237 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVERNIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE
OUR WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND. A FAST MOVING...CLIPPER...LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
LITTLE IMPACT ON THE LOCAL AREA. SOME SNOW IS POSSIBLE FOR MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS COMING OFF THE GREAT LAKES INTO PARTS OF
HERKIMER COUNTY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE...CLEAR
TO MOSTLY CLEAR OUTSIDE THE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS
WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. JUST A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
FORECAST THROUGH DAYBREAK.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL WEAKEN DURING THE DAY TODAY AND BE
SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH AS FAST MOVING CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION ASSOCIATED WITH
NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THIS WILL CAUSE AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS DURING THE DAY AND WILL ALSO CAUSE ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS TO SHIFT NORTH OUT OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AS THE FLOW
BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE ON FRIDAY RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 40S WITH MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA IN 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY DRY OUTSIDE OF MORE UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. A CLIPPER SYSTEM RIDING TO THE
NORTH OF OUR REGION...WILL ENHANCE THE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS AND EVEN INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
20S.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION
TO WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY MIDDAY SUNDAY...AND THE HUDSON VALLEY
AND REMAINING AREAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SOME CLOUDS AND
SPRINKLES/FLURRIES COULD ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...AS THE FRONT WILL
HAVE EXTREMELY LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.

THERE WILL BE A WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO WEST AS THE DAY WEAR
ON...WITH WIND SPEEDS AGAIN AVERAGING AROUND 10 MPH WITH SOME
HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM 30-35 ACROSS THE ELEVATED
TERRAIN...35-40 THE UPPER HUDSON AND MOHAWK VALLEYS/40-45
ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD FROM EASTERN
CANADA TO PROVIDE A MAINLY DRY NIGHT WITH LOWS 20-25 ALBANY
SOUTHWARD...TEENS FURTHER NORTH. THE SKY WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY.

MONDAY WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH A STORM AS IT LOOKS TO TRACK WELL
OFFSHORE THE CAROLINAS. THE COMBINATION OF THE LOW AND
HIGH TO THE NORTH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE AN ONSHORE FLOW OF
INCREASING MOISTURE WITH PERHAPS SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
BREAKING UP MAINLY SOUTH OF I-90.

HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE NOTABLY COLDER THAN SUNDAY...30-35
VALLEYS... 35-30 HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A FAIRLY ACTIVE PERIOD IS EXPECTED DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH
A GREAT DEAL OF CLOUDINESS AND SOME SNOW EXPECTED DURING THE MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME.

ON MONDAY NIGHT A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES AS A SECONDARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE
DELMARVA PENINSULA. THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
THERE WILL ONLY BE MINOR IMPACTS FROM THESE SYSTEMS. BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING THE COASTAL LOW WILL BE UP IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AS THE
CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE FA FOLLOWED BY AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IN THE WAKE OF THE CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM
EXPECT SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SINCE THIS IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO BRING A
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO OUR REGION WE WILL BE REMOVING THE MENTION
OF SIGNIFICANT SNOW FROM OUR HWO. THE 12Z GEFS PLUME DIAGRAM FOR
ALBANY GENERALLY HAS A RANGE OF A TENTH TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH
FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A FEW MEMBERS SHOWING UP TO
FOUR TENTHS OF AN INCH OF QPF.

IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY COLDER DURING THE PERIOD WITH MUCH MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPS FOR FEBRUARY. HIGHS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN
THE MID TEENS TO UPPER 20S. LOWS ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S WITH LOWS ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO UPPER TEENS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE KALB/KPOU/KPSF/KGFL TERMINALS
THROUGH THE 24 HOUR PERIOD ENDING 06Z SUNDAY. SKIES STARTING OUT
MAINLY CLEAR EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE LATER IN THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY THIS
MORNING...BECOMING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 7-10 KTS BY NOON.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT-SUN NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
MON NIGHT-WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO CONCERNS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS AS ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT OR IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

THE THIRD WINTER SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE SEASON WAS ISSUED
ON FEBRUARY 4TH.

HIGHLIGHTS...REFER TO THE PRODUCTS FOR DETAILS (ALBESFALY):

DUE TO BELOW NORMAL SNOW COVER AND RIVER ICE...POTENTIAL FOR
SNOWMELT AND ICE JAM FLOODING IS LOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

ALTHOUGH WATER SUPPLY LEVELS ARE NOT A CONCERN AT THE MOMENT...THERE
IS CURRENTLY VERY LITTLE SNOW WATER AVAILABLE FOR RESERVOIR RECHARGE
ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. IT WILL TAKE A STEADY SUPPLY OF RAIN AND
SNOW THROUGH SPRING INTO SUMMER FOR RESERVOIRS TO MAINTAIN ADEQUATE
LEVELS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/NAS



000
FXUS61 KALY 060537
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1237 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVERNIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE
OUR WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND. A FAST MOVING...CLIPPER...LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
LITTLE IMPACT ON THE LOCAL AREA. SOME SNOW IS POSSIBLE FOR MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS COMING OFF THE GREAT LAKES INTO PARTS OF
HERKIMER COUNTY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE...CLEAR
TO MOSTLY CLEAR OUTSIDE THE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS
WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. JUST A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
FORECAST THROUGH DAYBREAK.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL WEAKEN DURING THE DAY TODAY AND BE
SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH AS FAST MOVING CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION ASSOCIATED WITH
NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THIS WILL CAUSE AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS DURING THE DAY AND WILL ALSO CAUSE ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS TO SHIFT NORTH OUT OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AS THE FLOW
BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE ON FRIDAY RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 40S WITH MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA IN 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY DRY OUTSIDE OF MORE UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. A CLIPPER SYSTEM RIDING TO THE
NORTH OF OUR REGION...WILL ENHANCE THE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS AND EVEN INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
20S.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION
TO WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY MIDDAY SUNDAY...AND THE HUDSON VALLEY
AND REMAINING AREAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SOME CLOUDS AND
SPRINKLES/FLURRIES COULD ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...AS THE FRONT WILL
HAVE EXTREMELY LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.

THERE WILL BE A WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO WEST AS THE DAY WEAR
ON...WITH WIND SPEEDS AGAIN AVERAGING AROUND 10 MPH WITH SOME
HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM 30-35 ACROSS THE ELEVATED
TERRAIN...35-40 THE UPPER HUDSON AND MOHAWK VALLEYS/40-45
ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD FROM EASTERN
CANADA TO PROVIDE A MAINLY DRY NIGHT WITH LOWS 20-25 ALBANY
SOUTHWARD...TEENS FURTHER NORTH. THE SKY WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY.

MONDAY WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH A STORM AS IT LOOKS TO TRACK WELL
OFFSHORE THE CAROLINAS. THE COMBINATION OF THE LOW AND
HIGH TO THE NORTH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE AN ONSHORE FLOW OF
INCREASING MOISTURE WITH PERHAPS SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
BREAKING UP MAINLY SOUTH OF I-90.

HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE NOTABLY COLDER THAN SUNDAY...30-35
VALLEYS... 35-30 HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A FAIRLY ACTIVE PERIOD IS EXPECTED DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH
A GREAT DEAL OF CLOUDINESS AND SOME SNOW EXPECTED DURING THE MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME.

ON MONDAY NIGHT A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES AS A SECONDARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE
DELMARVA PENINSULA. THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
THERE WILL ONLY BE MINOR IMPACTS FROM THESE SYSTEMS. BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING THE COASTAL LOW WILL BE UP IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AS THE
CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE FA FOLLOWED BY AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IN THE WAKE OF THE CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM
EXPECT SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SINCE THIS IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO BRING A
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO OUR REGION WE WILL BE REMOVING THE MENTION
OF SIGNIFICANT SNOW FROM OUR HWO. THE 12Z GEFS PLUME DIAGRAM FOR
ALBANY GENERALLY HAS A RANGE OF A TENTH TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH
FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A FEW MEMBERS SHOWING UP TO
FOUR TENTHS OF AN INCH OF QPF.

IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY COLDER DURING THE PERIOD WITH MUCH MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPS FOR FEBRUARY. HIGHS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN
THE MID TEENS TO UPPER 20S. LOWS ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S WITH LOWS ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO UPPER TEENS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE KALB/KPOU/KPSF/KGFL TERMINALS
THROUGH THE 24 HOUR PERIOD ENDING 06Z SUNDAY. SKIES STARTING OUT
MAINLY CLEAR EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE LATER IN THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY THIS
MORNING...BECOMING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 7-10 KTS BY NOON.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT-SUN NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
MON NIGHT-WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO CONCERNS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS AS ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT OR IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

THE THIRD WINTER SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE SEASON WAS ISSUED
ON FEBRUARY 4TH.

HIGHLIGHTS...REFER TO THE PRODUCTS FOR DETAILS (ALBESFALY):

DUE TO BELOW NORMAL SNOW COVER AND RIVER ICE...POTENTIAL FOR
SNOWMELT AND ICE JAM FLOODING IS LOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

ALTHOUGH WATER SUPPLY LEVELS ARE NOT A CONCERN AT THE MOMENT...THERE
IS CURRENTLY VERY LITTLE SNOW WATER AVAILABLE FOR RESERVOIR RECHARGE
ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. IT WILL TAKE A STEADY SUPPLY OF RAIN AND
SNOW THROUGH SPRING INTO SUMMER FOR RESERVOIRS TO MAINTAIN ADEQUATE
LEVELS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/NAS




000
FXUS61 KALY 060537
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1237 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVERNIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE
OUR WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND. A FAST MOVING...CLIPPER...LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
LITTLE IMPACT ON THE LOCAL AREA. SOME SNOW IS POSSIBLE FOR MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS COMING OFF THE GREAT LAKES INTO PARTS OF
HERKIMER COUNTY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE...CLEAR
TO MOSTLY CLEAR OUTSIDE THE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS
WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. JUST A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
FORECAST THROUGH DAYBREAK.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL WEAKEN DURING THE DAY TODAY AND BE
SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH AS FAST MOVING CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION ASSOCIATED WITH
NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THIS WILL CAUSE AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS DURING THE DAY AND WILL ALSO CAUSE ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS TO SHIFT NORTH OUT OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AS THE FLOW
BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE ON FRIDAY RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 40S WITH MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA IN 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY DRY OUTSIDE OF MORE UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. A CLIPPER SYSTEM RIDING TO THE
NORTH OF OUR REGION...WILL ENHANCE THE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS AND EVEN INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
20S.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION
TO WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY MIDDAY SUNDAY...AND THE HUDSON VALLEY
AND REMAINING AREAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SOME CLOUDS AND
SPRINKLES/FLURRIES COULD ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...AS THE FRONT WILL
HAVE EXTREMELY LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.

THERE WILL BE A WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO WEST AS THE DAY WEAR
ON...WITH WIND SPEEDS AGAIN AVERAGING AROUND 10 MPH WITH SOME
HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM 30-35 ACROSS THE ELEVATED
TERRAIN...35-40 THE UPPER HUDSON AND MOHAWK VALLEYS/40-45
ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD FROM EASTERN
CANADA TO PROVIDE A MAINLY DRY NIGHT WITH LOWS 20-25 ALBANY
SOUTHWARD...TEENS FURTHER NORTH. THE SKY WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY.

MONDAY WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH A STORM AS IT LOOKS TO TRACK WELL
OFFSHORE THE CAROLINAS. THE COMBINATION OF THE LOW AND
HIGH TO THE NORTH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE AN ONSHORE FLOW OF
INCREASING MOISTURE WITH PERHAPS SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
BREAKING UP MAINLY SOUTH OF I-90.

HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE NOTABLY COLDER THAN SUNDAY...30-35
VALLEYS... 35-30 HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A FAIRLY ACTIVE PERIOD IS EXPECTED DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH
A GREAT DEAL OF CLOUDINESS AND SOME SNOW EXPECTED DURING THE MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME.

ON MONDAY NIGHT A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES AS A SECONDARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE
DELMARVA PENINSULA. THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
THERE WILL ONLY BE MINOR IMPACTS FROM THESE SYSTEMS. BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING THE COASTAL LOW WILL BE UP IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AS THE
CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE FA FOLLOWED BY AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IN THE WAKE OF THE CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM
EXPECT SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SINCE THIS IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO BRING A
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO OUR REGION WE WILL BE REMOVING THE MENTION
OF SIGNIFICANT SNOW FROM OUR HWO. THE 12Z GEFS PLUME DIAGRAM FOR
ALBANY GENERALLY HAS A RANGE OF A TENTH TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH
FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A FEW MEMBERS SHOWING UP TO
FOUR TENTHS OF AN INCH OF QPF.

IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY COLDER DURING THE PERIOD WITH MUCH MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPS FOR FEBRUARY. HIGHS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN
THE MID TEENS TO UPPER 20S. LOWS ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S WITH LOWS ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO UPPER TEENS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE KALB/KPOU/KPSF/KGFL TERMINALS
THROUGH THE 24 HOUR PERIOD ENDING 06Z SUNDAY. SKIES STARTING OUT
MAINLY CLEAR EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE LATER IN THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY THIS
MORNING...BECOMING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 7-10 KTS BY NOON.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT-SUN NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
MON NIGHT-WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO CONCERNS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS AS ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT OR IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

THE THIRD WINTER SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE SEASON WAS ISSUED
ON FEBRUARY 4TH.

HIGHLIGHTS...REFER TO THE PRODUCTS FOR DETAILS (ALBESFALY):

DUE TO BELOW NORMAL SNOW COVER AND RIVER ICE...POTENTIAL FOR
SNOWMELT AND ICE JAM FLOODING IS LOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

ALTHOUGH WATER SUPPLY LEVELS ARE NOT A CONCERN AT THE MOMENT...THERE
IS CURRENTLY VERY LITTLE SNOW WATER AVAILABLE FOR RESERVOIR RECHARGE
ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. IT WILL TAKE A STEADY SUPPLY OF RAIN AND
SNOW THROUGH SPRING INTO SUMMER FOR RESERVOIRS TO MAINTAIN ADEQUATE
LEVELS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/NAS




000
FXUS61 KALY 060521
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1221 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVERNIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE
OUR WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND. A FAST MOVING...CLIPPER...LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
LITTLE IMPACT ON THE LOCAL AREA. SOME SNOW IS POSSIBLE FOR MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS COMING OFF THE GREAT LAEKS INTO PARTS OF
HERKIMER COUNTY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE...CLEAR
TO MOSTLY CLEAR OUTSIDE THE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS
WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. JUST A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
FORECAST THROUGH DAYBREAK.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL WEAKEN DURING THE DAY TODAY AND BE
SURPRESSED TO THE SOUTH AS FAST MOVING CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERN
STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THIS WILL CAUSE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS
DURING THE DAY AND WILL ALSO CAUSE ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO
SHIFT NORTH OUT OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AS THE FLOW BECOMES
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE ON FRIDAY RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 40S WITH MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA IN 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY DRY OUTSIDE OF MORE UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. A CLIPPER SYSTEM RIDING TO THE
NORTH OF OUR REGION...WILL ENHANCE THE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS AND EVEN INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
20S.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION
TO WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY MIDDAY SUNDAY...AND THE HUDSON VALLEY
AND REMAINING AREAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SOME CLOUDS AND
SPRINKLES/FLURRIES COULD ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...AS THE FRONT WILL
HAVE EXTREMELY LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.

THERE WILL BE A WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO WEST AS THE DAY WEAR
ON...WITH WIND SPEEDS AGAIN AVERAGING AROUND 10 MPH WITH SOME
HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM 30-35 ACROSS THE ELEVATED
TERRAIN...35-40 THE UPPER HUDSON AND MOHAWK VALLEYS/40-45
ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD FROM EASTERN
CANADA TO PROVIDE A MAINLY DRY NIGHT WITH LOWS 20-25 ALBANY
SOUTHWARD...TEENS FURTHER NORTH. THE SKY WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY.

MONDAY WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH A STORM AS IT LOOKS TO TRACK WELL
OFFSHORE THE CAROLINAS. THE COMBINATION OF THE LOW AND
HIGH TO THE NORTH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE AN ONSHORE FLOW OF
INCREASING MOISTURE WITH PERHAPS SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
BREAKING UP MAINLY SOUTH OF I-90.

HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE NOTABLY COLDER THAN SUNDAY...30-35
VALLEYS... 35-30 HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A FAIRLY ACTIVE PERIOD IS EXPECTED DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH
A GREAT DEAL OF CLOUDINESS AND SOME SNOW EXPECTED DURING THE MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME.

ON MONDAY NIGHT A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES AS A SECONDARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE
DELMARVA PENINSULA. THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
THERE WILL ONLY BE MINOR IMPACTS FROM THESE SYSTEMS. BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING THE COASTAL LOW WILL BE UP IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AS THE
CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE FA FOLLOWED BY AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IN THE WAKE OF THE CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM
EXPECT SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SINCE THIS IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO BRING A
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO OUR REGION WE WILL BE REMOVING THE MENTION
OF SIGNIFICANT SNOW FROM OUR HWO. THE 12Z GEFS PLUME DIAGRAM FOR
ALBANY GENERALLY HAS A RANGE OF A TENTH TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH
FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A FEW MEMBERS SHOWING UP TO
FOUR TENTHS OF AN INCH OF QPF.

IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY COLDER DURING THE PERIOD WITH MUCH MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPS FOR FEBRUARY. HIGHS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN
THE MID TEENS TO UPPER 20S. LOWS ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S WITH LOWS ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO UPPER TEENS.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...00Z SUNDAY.

THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL WEAKEN AS THE
LOW OFF NEW ENGLAND COAST MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM
THE AREA AND RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE. SKIES HAVE ALREADY
CLEARED AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TO CALM.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL WEAKEN DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AND BE
SURPRESSED TO THE SOUTH AS FAST MOVING CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERN
STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THIS WILL CAUSE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS
DURING THE DAY.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON SATURDAY AT 5 TO 10
KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE TEENS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AT KALB.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT-SUN NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
MON NIGHT-WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO CONCERNS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS AS ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT OR IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

THE THIRD WINTER SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE SEASON WAS ISSUED
ON FEBRUARY 4TH.

HIGHLIGHTS...REFER TO THE PRODUCTS FOR DETAILS (ALBESFALY):

DUE TO BELOW NORMAL SNOW COVER AND RIVER ICE...POTENTIAL FOR
SNOWMELT AND ICE JAM FLOODING IS LOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

ALTHOUGH WATER SUPPLY LEVELS ARE NOT A CONCERN AT THE MOMENT...THERE
IS CURRENTLY VERY LITTLE SNOW WATER AVAILABLE FOR RESERVOIR RECHARGE
ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. IT WILL TAKE A STEADY SUPPLY OF RAIN AND
SNOW THROUGH SPRING INTO SUMMER FOR RESERVOIRS TO MAINTAIN ADEQUATE
LEVELS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/NAS




000
FXUS61 KOKX 060346
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1046 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL HEAD NORTHEAST AND FARTHER
AWAY FROM THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST TONIGHT AND REMAIN INTO THIS WEEKEND. DEEP LOW PRESSURE
WILL TRACK OVER THE ATLANTIC LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
AN ACTIVE WINTER PATTERN WILL THEN SET UP OVER THE AREA THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
CLEAR SKIES OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AS THE LOW DEPARTS AND HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN. EXPECT VERY GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES LATE TONIGHT OVER
FRESH SNOW PACK. EXPECT TEMPS WELL DOWN INTO THE TEENS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND LONG ISLAND PINE BARRENS BARRENS REGIONS...AND INTO
THE 20S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH A DEVELOPING SPLIT UPPER FLOW.
A NORTHERN STREAM CUTOFF LOW WILL TRACK FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO INTO
CENTRAL QUEBEC SAT INTO SAT NIGHT...WITH RESULTANT CLIPPER SYSTEM
TAKING A SIMILAR TRACK. MEANWHILE A CUTOFF LOW SEPARATES INTO THE
SOUTHERN STATES SAT INTO SAT NIGHT FROM THE BASE OF AN APPROACHING
CENTRAL STATES TROUGH...WITH RESULTANT LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE GULF COAST.

EXPECT TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE CENTRAL US SAT MORNING...AND THEN SINKS SE OF
THE REGION FOR SAT AFT INTO SAT NIGHT.

HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S SATURDAY...BASED ON A
SLIGHT REDUCTION OF GUIDANCE BLEND DUE TO NEW SNOW PACK.
POTENTIAL FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS ACROSS INTERIOR
ONCE AGAIN SAT NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THIS MAY BE TEMPERED BY HIGH
CLOUDS AND SW WINDS NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRES WILL BEGIN TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OFF THE SERN CONUS ON SUN.
A WEAK RIDGE OF HI PRES OVER THE CWA DURING THIS TIME SO FAIR WX
WITH TEMPS AROUND AVG. THE LOW THEN TRACKS NEWD OVER THE
ATLC...REACHING A POINT ABOUT 350 MILES E OF THE BENCHMARK MON AFTN.
THE MODELS ARE IN REMARKABLE AGREEMENT WRT TO THE POSITION OF THE
LOW...WITH THE 12Z GEFS/GEM/GFS/ECMWF SOLNS VIRTUALLY STACKED ON TOP
OF EACH OTHER. THERE ARE SOME INTENSITY DIFFERENCES...BUT NOT MUCH.
AT 18Z MON...THE ECMWF GETS DOWN TO 971...THE GEM 975 AND THE GFS
977. THE GFS AND GEM HAVE TRENDED WWD. THE ECMWF IS RELATIVELY
UNCHANGED. BASED ON MODEL PROGS FOR THIS STORM EARLY THIS
WEEK...MODEL PERFORMANCE THIS YEAR AND CURRENT TRENDS...EXPECTING
THE STORM TO END UP TRACKING W OF THE CURRENT PROGS. AS A
RESULT...FCST DATA IS AUGMENTED ABV THE SUPERBLEND FOR WINDS AND
POPS. AT LEAST MINOR TIDAL FLOODING POSSIBLE WITH A NEW MOON ON MON.
WILL START A MENTION IN THE HWO FOR THE SYS. ALTHOUGH THE CURRENT
MODEL DATA SUGGESTS ONLY A GLANCING BLOW AT BEST...ALL INTERESTS
SHOULD PAY ATTENTION TO THIS STORM AS A MID 970S LOW TRACKING UP THE
COAST WOULD HAVE SERIOUS IMPACTS. ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO THE H5
LOW DROPPING INTO THE NERN CONUS TUE-THU. THE PATTERN SUPPORTS THE
DEVELOPMENT OF 2 WEAK LOWS TUE AND WED S OF THE REGION...PROVIDING
CHCS FOR SNOW. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY...WITH THE ULTIMATE
LATITUDE OF THE SYS DICTATING SNOW CHCS AND AMTS. IN ADDITION...IF
THE PATTERN EASES UP AT ALL AND THE LOWS DEVELOP FURTHER NWD...SOME
RAIN IN THE MIX PARTICULARLY CSTL AREAS.  ARCTIC AIR STILL LOOKS
POISED FOR THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF USHERS IT IN WITH A CLIPPER FRI
WHICH WOULD BRING MORE SNOW CHCS. IN SUMMARY...THERE ARE CHCS FOR
PCPN IN EVERY PERIOD OF THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE REGION TOMORROW.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST
THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST FOR SATURDAY. SOME
LEFTOVER GUSTS 25-30KT CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MIDNIGHT. WINDS
ON SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN 10KT OR LESS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SATURDAY-SUNDAY...VFR.
.MONDAY...CHC SUB-VFR AND SNOW...ESPECIALLY EAST OF CITY. CHC NE
GUSTS AROUND 25KT.
.TUESDAY...SUB-VFR WITH SNOW LIKELY...POSSIBLY MIXED PTYPE DURING
THE AFTN AT THE COAST...TAPERING OFF LATE IN THE DAY.
.WEDNESDAY...CHC SUB-VFR WITH -SHSN. NW GUST AROUND 25KT.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WITH NW
WINDS GUSTING TO 25-30 KT AND SEAS UP TO 5 FT. SUB SCA CONDS
THEN EXPECTED ON ALL WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT...ALTHOUGH
WINDS GUSTS UP TO 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN LATE SAT INTO
SAT NIGHT.

WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS ON SUN...THEN DEEP LOW PRES WILL TRACK E
OF THE WATERS SUN NGT AND MON. THIS WILL PRODUCE AT LEAST SCA
COND...WITH GALES POSSIBLE. IF THE STORM TRACKS CLOSE
ENOUGH...STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SCA COND ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST ON
THE OCEAN RIGHT THRU THU. ELSEWHERE...PERIODS OF SCA LVL WINDS
POSSIBLE WITH NW FLOW DEVELOPING...ESPECIALLY WED AND THU.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD PCPN IS POSSIBLE LATE SUN NGT THRU MON...AND AGAIN DURING
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE PCPN THAT FALLS
LIKELY TO BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW ATTM.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-
     335-338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/NV
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...JMC/GOODMAN/NV
HYDROLOGY...JMC/NV



000
FXUS61 KALY 060346
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1046 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVERNIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE
OUR WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND. A FAST MOVING...CLIPPER...LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
LITTLE IMPACT ON THE LOCAL AREA. SOME SNOW IS POSSIBLE FOR MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WINDS HAVE WEAKEN ARE GENERALLY 5 KNOTS OR LESS AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD FROM THE WEST. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE TO CALM...TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP TO NEAR
SEASONABLY COLD READINGS...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE TEENS.

BY LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...A WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW OFF
LAKE ONTARIO WILL PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL WEAKEN DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AND BE
SURPRESSED TO THE SOUTH AS FAST MOVING CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERN
STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THIS WILL CAUSE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS
DURING THE DAY AND WILL ALSO CAUSE ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
TO SHIFT NORTH OUT OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AS THE FLOW BECOMES
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.

HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO FRIDAY`S RANGING FROM THE UPPER
20S TO LOWER 40S WITH MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA IN 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY DRY OUTSIDE OF MORE UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. A CLIPPER SYSTEM RIDING TO THE
NORTH OF OUR REGION...WILL ENHANCE THE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS AND EVEN INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
20S.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION
TO WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY MIDDAY SUNDAY...AND THE HUDSON VALLEY
AND REMAINING AREAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SOME CLOUDS AND
SPRINKLES/FLURRIES COULD ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...AS THE FRONT WILL
HAVE EXTREMELY LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.

THERE WILL BE A WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO WEST AS THE DAY WEAR
ON...WITH WIND SPEEDS AGAIN AVERAGING AROUND 10 MPH WITH SOME
HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM 30-35 ACROSS THE ELEVATED
TERRAIN...35-40 THE UPPER HUDSON AND MOHAWK VALLEYS/40-45
ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD FROM EASTERN
CANADA TO PROVIDE A MAINLY DRY NIGHT WITH LOWS 20-25 ALBANY
SOUTHWARD...TEENS FURTHER NORTH. THE SKY WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY.

MONDAY WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH A STORM AS IT LOOKS TO TRACK WELL
OFFSHORE THE CAROLINAS. THE COMBINATION OF THE LOW AND
HIGH TO THE NORTH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE AN ONSHORE FLOW OF
INCREASING MOISTURE WITH PERHAPS SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
BREAKING UP MAINLY SOUTH OF I-90.

HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE NOTABLY COLDER THAN SUNDAY...30-35
VALLEYS... 35-30 HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A FAIRLY ACTIVE PERIOD IS EXPECTED DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH
A GREAT DEAL OF CLOUDINESS AND SOME SNOW EXPECTED DURING THE MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME.

ON MONDAY NIGHT A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES AS A SECONDARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE
DELMARVA PENINSULA. THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
THERE WILL ONLY BE MINOR IMPACTS FROM THESE SYSTEMS. BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING THE COASTAL LOW WILL BE UP IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AS THE
CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE FA FOLLOWED BY AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IN THE WAKE OF THE CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM
EXPECT SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SINCE THIS IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO BRING A
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO OUR REGION WE WILL BE REMOVING THE MENTION
OF SIGNIFICANT SNOW FROM OUR HWO. THE 12Z GEFS PLUME DIAGRAM FOR
ALBANY GENERALLY HAS A RANGE OF A TENTH TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH
FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A FEW MEMBERS SHOWING UP TO
FOUR TENTHS OF AN INCH OF QPF.

IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY COLDER DURING THE PERIOD WITH MUCH MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPS FOR FEBRUARY. HIGHS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN
THE MID TEENS TO UPPER 20S. LOWS ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S WITH LOWS ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO UPPER TEENS.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...00Z SUNDAY.

THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL WEAKEN AS THE
LOW OFF NEW ENGLAND COAST MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM
THE AREA AND RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE. SKIES HAVE ALREADY
CLEARED AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TO CALM.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL WEAKEN DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AND BE
SURPRESSED TO THE SOUTH AS FAST MOVING CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERN
STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THIS WILL CAUSE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS
DURING THE DAY.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON SATURDAY AT 5 TO 10
KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE TEENS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AT KALB.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT-SUN NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
MON NIGHT-WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO CONCERNS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS AS ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT OR IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

THE THIRD WINTER SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE SEASON WAS ISSUED
ON FEBRUARY 4TH.

HIGHLIGHTS...REFER TO THE PRODUCTS FOR DETAILS (ALBESFALY):

DUE TO BELOW NORMAL SNOW COVER AND RIVER ICE...POTENTIAL FOR
SNOWMELT AND ICE JAM FLOODING IS LOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

ALTHOUGH WATER SUPPLY LEVELS ARE NOT A CONCERN AT THE MOMENT...THERE
IS CURRENTLY VERY LITTLE SNOW WATER AVAILABLE FOR RESERVOIR RECHARGE
ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. IT WILL TAKE A STEADY SUPPLY OF RAIN AND
SNOW THROUGH SPRING INTO SUMMER FOR RESERVOIRS TO MAINTAIN ADEQUATE
LEVELS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/NAS




000
FXUS61 KOKX 060346
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1046 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL HEAD NORTHEAST AND FARTHER
AWAY FROM THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST TONIGHT AND REMAIN INTO THIS WEEKEND. DEEP LOW PRESSURE
WILL TRACK OVER THE ATLANTIC LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
AN ACTIVE WINTER PATTERN WILL THEN SET UP OVER THE AREA THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
CLEAR SKIES OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AS THE LOW DEPARTS AND HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN. EXPECT VERY GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES LATE TONIGHT OVER
FRESH SNOW PACK. EXPECT TEMPS WELL DOWN INTO THE TEENS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND LONG ISLAND PINE BARRENS BARRENS REGIONS...AND INTO
THE 20S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH A DEVELOPING SPLIT UPPER FLOW.
A NORTHERN STREAM CUTOFF LOW WILL TRACK FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO INTO
CENTRAL QUEBEC SAT INTO SAT NIGHT...WITH RESULTANT CLIPPER SYSTEM
TAKING A SIMILAR TRACK. MEANWHILE A CUTOFF LOW SEPARATES INTO THE
SOUTHERN STATES SAT INTO SAT NIGHT FROM THE BASE OF AN APPROACHING
CENTRAL STATES TROUGH...WITH RESULTANT LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE GULF COAST.

EXPECT TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE CENTRAL US SAT MORNING...AND THEN SINKS SE OF
THE REGION FOR SAT AFT INTO SAT NIGHT.

HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S SATURDAY...BASED ON A
SLIGHT REDUCTION OF GUIDANCE BLEND DUE TO NEW SNOW PACK.
POTENTIAL FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS ACROSS INTERIOR
ONCE AGAIN SAT NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THIS MAY BE TEMPERED BY HIGH
CLOUDS AND SW WINDS NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRES WILL BEGIN TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OFF THE SERN CONUS ON SUN.
A WEAK RIDGE OF HI PRES OVER THE CWA DURING THIS TIME SO FAIR WX
WITH TEMPS AROUND AVG. THE LOW THEN TRACKS NEWD OVER THE
ATLC...REACHING A POINT ABOUT 350 MILES E OF THE BENCHMARK MON AFTN.
THE MODELS ARE IN REMARKABLE AGREEMENT WRT TO THE POSITION OF THE
LOW...WITH THE 12Z GEFS/GEM/GFS/ECMWF SOLNS VIRTUALLY STACKED ON TOP
OF EACH OTHER. THERE ARE SOME INTENSITY DIFFERENCES...BUT NOT MUCH.
AT 18Z MON...THE ECMWF GETS DOWN TO 971...THE GEM 975 AND THE GFS
977. THE GFS AND GEM HAVE TRENDED WWD. THE ECMWF IS RELATIVELY
UNCHANGED. BASED ON MODEL PROGS FOR THIS STORM EARLY THIS
WEEK...MODEL PERFORMANCE THIS YEAR AND CURRENT TRENDS...EXPECTING
THE STORM TO END UP TRACKING W OF THE CURRENT PROGS. AS A
RESULT...FCST DATA IS AUGMENTED ABV THE SUPERBLEND FOR WINDS AND
POPS. AT LEAST MINOR TIDAL FLOODING POSSIBLE WITH A NEW MOON ON MON.
WILL START A MENTION IN THE HWO FOR THE SYS. ALTHOUGH THE CURRENT
MODEL DATA SUGGESTS ONLY A GLANCING BLOW AT BEST...ALL INTERESTS
SHOULD PAY ATTENTION TO THIS STORM AS A MID 970S LOW TRACKING UP THE
COAST WOULD HAVE SERIOUS IMPACTS. ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO THE H5
LOW DROPPING INTO THE NERN CONUS TUE-THU. THE PATTERN SUPPORTS THE
DEVELOPMENT OF 2 WEAK LOWS TUE AND WED S OF THE REGION...PROVIDING
CHCS FOR SNOW. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY...WITH THE ULTIMATE
LATITUDE OF THE SYS DICTATING SNOW CHCS AND AMTS. IN ADDITION...IF
THE PATTERN EASES UP AT ALL AND THE LOWS DEVELOP FURTHER NWD...SOME
RAIN IN THE MIX PARTICULARLY CSTL AREAS.  ARCTIC AIR STILL LOOKS
POISED FOR THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF USHERS IT IN WITH A CLIPPER FRI
WHICH WOULD BRING MORE SNOW CHCS. IN SUMMARY...THERE ARE CHCS FOR
PCPN IN EVERY PERIOD OF THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE REGION TOMORROW.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST
THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST FOR SATURDAY. SOME
LEFTOVER GUSTS 25-30KT CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MIDNIGHT. WINDS
ON SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN 10KT OR LESS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SATURDAY-SUNDAY...VFR.
.MONDAY...CHC SUB-VFR AND SNOW...ESPECIALLY EAST OF CITY. CHC NE
GUSTS AROUND 25KT.
.TUESDAY...SUB-VFR WITH SNOW LIKELY...POSSIBLY MIXED PTYPE DURING
THE AFTN AT THE COAST...TAPERING OFF LATE IN THE DAY.
.WEDNESDAY...CHC SUB-VFR WITH -SHSN. NW GUST AROUND 25KT.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WITH NW
WINDS GUSTING TO 25-30 KT AND SEAS UP TO 5 FT. SUB SCA CONDS
THEN EXPECTED ON ALL WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT...ALTHOUGH
WINDS GUSTS UP TO 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN LATE SAT INTO
SAT NIGHT.

WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS ON SUN...THEN DEEP LOW PRES WILL TRACK E
OF THE WATERS SUN NGT AND MON. THIS WILL PRODUCE AT LEAST SCA
COND...WITH GALES POSSIBLE. IF THE STORM TRACKS CLOSE
ENOUGH...STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SCA COND ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST ON
THE OCEAN RIGHT THRU THU. ELSEWHERE...PERIODS OF SCA LVL WINDS
POSSIBLE WITH NW FLOW DEVELOPING...ESPECIALLY WED AND THU.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD PCPN IS POSSIBLE LATE SUN NGT THRU MON...AND AGAIN DURING
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE PCPN THAT FALLS
LIKELY TO BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW ATTM.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-
     335-338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/NV
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...JMC/GOODMAN/NV
HYDROLOGY...JMC/NV




000
FXUS61 KBOX 060320
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1020 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY WEATHER THIS WEEKEND WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY. A PERIOD OR TWO OF ACCUMULATING SNOW IS
LIKELY MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN MA...BUT ITS
UNCERTAIN IF THIS WILL MAINLY BE A NUISANCE EVENT OR A SIGNIFICANT
WINTER STORM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...

1030 PM UPDATE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. CONTINUE TO MONITOR
TEMPS WHICH CONTINUE TO FALL TONIGHT. WINDS ARE STILL A BIT GUSTY
SO THAT HAS SLOWED RADIATION COOLING A BIT. OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS
AND CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AND QUIET WEATHER.


7 PM UPDATE...

ALL WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES HAVE BEEN DROPPED.  THE LAST OF THE
LIGHT SNOW WILL COME TO AN END BY 8 PM ACROSS THE OUTER-CAPE AND
NANTUCKET. OTHERWISE...SKIES HAVE BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE
REST OF THE REGION AND THIS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE CAPE/ISLANDS OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE REGION AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT WEAKENS.  FRESH SNOW COVER AND DIMINISHING WIND WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW GUIDANCE NUMBERS IN THE OUTLYING
LOCATIONS.  LOWS WILL RANGE FROM BETWEEN 10 AND 15 ACROSS THE
OUTLYING LOCATIONS...TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S IN THE URBAN HEAT
ISLANDS OF DOWNTOWN BOSTON/PROVIDENCE.

A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT CONTINUES THIS EVENING...AS FALLING
TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW ANY STANDING WATER/SLUSH TO FREEZE SOLID.
MOTORISTS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR BLACK ICE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
NOSE OF HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER FROM THE W. THE COMBINATION OF COLD
ADVECTION ALOFT AND SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW-MID LVL MOISTURE
SUGGESTS SOME AFTERNOON CLOUD DEVELOPMENT...BUT LITTLE ELSE.
DROPPED HIGHS A LITTLE BIT FROM CURRENT FORECASTS AS THE ADDED
SNOWPACK WILL LIKELY KEEP 2M TEMPS A BIT LOWER THAN SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE IS CURRENTLY SUGGESTING. EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY WITH RELATIVELY MILD TEMPS SUN
* PERIOD OR TWO OF ACCUMULATING SNOW LIKELY MON-WED ESPECIALLY COAST
* UNCERTAIN IF MON-WED IS NUISANCE SNOW OR SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM

DETAILS...

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...

WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER.  LOW TEMPS
SAT NIGHT MAINLY IN THE 20S...BUT SOME UPPER TEENS POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE NORMALLY COLDER OUTLYING LOCATIONS.  PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON
SUNDAY AND WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD ALLOW MUCH OF THE REGION TO SEE
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 40S.

LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

EXTREMELY COMPLEX AND DIFFICULT FORECAST OVER THIS TIME PERIOD.  A
COUPLE OF POTENT SHORTWAVES WILL CARVE OUT A DEEP EAST COAST TROUGH.
THERE IS SO MUCH ENERGY IN THE FLOW THAT THE MODELS ARE GOING TO
HAVE A TOUGH TIME ON RESOLVING WHAT EXACTLY UNFOLDS.

FIRST THING IS FIRST...AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE WILL EMERGE OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AND RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST. CURRENT
INDICATIONS TAKE THE STORM SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK.  NOW OF
COURSE THAT IS 72+ HOURS OUT...SO A TRACK CLOSER TO THE COAST IS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE AND WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.  HOWEVER...EVEN IF
THE STORM PASSES WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK...MAY STILL END UP
WITH A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW EVENT ESPECIALLY ON THE COAST.  THIS
STORM LOOKS TO HAVE A FAIRLY BROAD CIRCULATION WITH 35 TO 50 KNOTS
OF ENE FLOW AT 850 MB...SO ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY FOR AT LEAST
THE COASTAL PLAIN.  ALSO...SOME LAND/SEA INTERFACE AND OCEAN
ENHANCEMENT MAY OCCUR IN EASTERN MA.

A SECOND POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL DROP DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
WILL ALLOW LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND
TRACK NORTHEAST TUE INTO EARLY WED.  A LOT OF WHAT HAPPENS WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE AFFECTED BY THE STRENGTH/TRACK OF THE FIRST SYSTEM ON
MONDAY.  THERE ARE A WIDE RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES...FROM A GLANCING
BLOW...TO A STRONG NOREASTER AND EVEN AN INVERTED TROUGH SETUP.

TO SUM UP...THE MAIN IDEA IS THAT WE ARE LIKELY TO RECEIVE AT LEAST
SOME SNOW AT TIMES MONDAY INTO WED.  WHETHER OR NOT WE SEE A
SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM REMAINS TO BE SEEN...BUT AS MENTIONED IN
THE PREVIOUS PARAGRAPHS ALL OPTIONS ARE ON THE TABLE.  WE ARE LIKELY
TO SEE AT LEAST SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...

LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY OVER THIS TIME FRAME.  WILL HAVE TO WATCH A WAVE
OR TWO OF LOW PRESSURE THAT MAY END UP BRINGING A BIT MORE
SNOW...BUT MUCH OF THIS PERIOD MAY END UP DRY.  GIVEN LOW
CONFIDENCE...WILL KEEP POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LINGERING SNOW EXITS THE
OUTER-CAPE/NANTUCKET BY 01Z WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING IN THOSE
LOCATIONS TO VFR BY 02Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT.  ANY
UNTREATED AND WET RUNWAYS WILL FREEZE AS TEMPERATURES DROP. WIND
GUSTS REMAIN N-NW BUT DIMINISH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

TOMORROW...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR. WINDS SHIFT TO THE SW...BUT
SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 10 KT OR LESS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...TIMING MAY BE OFF A
BIT.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS....TIMING MAY BE OFF A
BIT.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE ESPECIALLY ON TIMING.
PERIOD OR TWO OF SNOW LIKELY IN THIS TIME FRAME...SO WILL PROBABLY
SEE SOME IFR CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST ON MON. NORTHEAST
WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS LIKELY ON MONDAY ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING
HOURS SUCH THAT MOST GALE WARNINGS CAN BE DROPPED BY ABOUT
MIDNIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL HAVE TO FOLLOW...BECAUSE
EVEN THOUGH WINDS WILL DROP BELOW THRESHOLDS...HIGH SEAS OF 10-12
FT HAVE DEVELOPED AND WILL LINGER WELL INTO THE DAY TOMORROW.
SO...EXPECT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...MAINLY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS TO
FOLLOW.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LEFT OVER 5 FOOT SWELL
MAY LINGER INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS OUR EASTERN OUTER-
WATERS.  OTHERWISE...WINDS/SEAS WILL BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS WITH A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  GALE FORCE NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS
LIKELY AS A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIKELY TRACKS
SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK.  THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY FOR A PERIOD
OF STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS IF THAT SYSTEM TRACKS CLOSER TO THE COAST
THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED. SEAS LIKELY BUILD TO AT LEAST 15 FEET
ACROSS OUR EASTERN OUTER-WATERS WITH LONG NORTHEAST FETCH AND GOOD
MIXING.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.  AT THE VERY LEAST NORTHEAST
SMALL CRAFT WIND GUSTS AND HIGH SEAS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUE EVENING.
HOWEVER...POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER WIND GUSTS DEPENDING ON STRENGTH
AND LOCATION OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.  BY WEDNESDAY WIND
GUSTS AND SEAS ARE QUITE UNCERTAIN...DEPENDING ON WHAT HAPPENS WITH
THAT SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
MONDAY...

THERE IS A FAIRLY HIGH ASTRO TIDE OF 11.2 IN BOSTON LATE MONDAY
MORNING.  NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS FROM LARGE
CIRCULATION OF THE INTENSIFYING OCEAN STORM WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A
1 TO 1.5 SURGE.  SEAS SHOULD BE BUILT UP TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 FEET
BY THEN...SO FEEL THERE IS A DECENT SHOT FOR POCKETS OF MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING ALONG EASTERN MA COAST.  THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR
POCKETS OF MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING...IF THE STORMS ENDS UP A BIT
FASTER AND TRACKING FURTHER WEST THAN CURRENT GUIDANCE INDICATES.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...

MAIN CONCERN IS IF WE END UP WITH A SECOND AREA OF STRONG LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING UP THE COAST...WHICH COULD IMPACT ADDITIONAL HIGH
TIDE CYCLES. LARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE ON WHETHER OR NOT THIS
HAPPENS.  IF SO...WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE TUESDAY NOON HIGH TIDE
CYCLE ACROSS EASTERN MA AS BOSTON HAS AN 11.5 ASTRO TIDE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ231>235-
     237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ251-256.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...FRANK/DOODY
MARINE...FRANK/DOODY
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 060320
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1020 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY WEATHER THIS WEEKEND WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY. A PERIOD OR TWO OF ACCUMULATING SNOW IS
LIKELY MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN MA...BUT ITS
UNCERTAIN IF THIS WILL MAINLY BE A NUISANCE EVENT OR A SIGNIFICANT
WINTER STORM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...

1030 PM UPDATE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. CONTINUE TO MONITOR
TEMPS WHICH CONTINUE TO FALL TONIGHT. WINDS ARE STILL A BIT GUSTY
SO THAT HAS SLOWED RADIATION COOLING A BIT. OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS
AND CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AND QUIET WEATHER.


7 PM UPDATE...

ALL WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES HAVE BEEN DROPPED.  THE LAST OF THE
LIGHT SNOW WILL COME TO AN END BY 8 PM ACROSS THE OUTER-CAPE AND
NANTUCKET. OTHERWISE...SKIES HAVE BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE
REST OF THE REGION AND THIS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE CAPE/ISLANDS OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE REGION AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT WEAKENS.  FRESH SNOW COVER AND DIMINISHING WIND WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW GUIDANCE NUMBERS IN THE OUTLYING
LOCATIONS.  LOWS WILL RANGE FROM BETWEEN 10 AND 15 ACROSS THE
OUTLYING LOCATIONS...TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S IN THE URBAN HEAT
ISLANDS OF DOWNTOWN BOSTON/PROVIDENCE.

A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT CONTINUES THIS EVENING...AS FALLING
TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW ANY STANDING WATER/SLUSH TO FREEZE SOLID.
MOTORISTS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR BLACK ICE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
NOSE OF HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER FROM THE W. THE COMBINATION OF COLD
ADVECTION ALOFT AND SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW-MID LVL MOISTURE
SUGGESTS SOME AFTERNOON CLOUD DEVELOPMENT...BUT LITTLE ELSE.
DROPPED HIGHS A LITTLE BIT FROM CURRENT FORECASTS AS THE ADDED
SNOWPACK WILL LIKELY KEEP 2M TEMPS A BIT LOWER THAN SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE IS CURRENTLY SUGGESTING. EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY WITH RELATIVELY MILD TEMPS SUN
* PERIOD OR TWO OF ACCUMULATING SNOW LIKELY MON-WED ESPECIALLY COAST
* UNCERTAIN IF MON-WED IS NUISANCE SNOW OR SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM

DETAILS...

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...

WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER.  LOW TEMPS
SAT NIGHT MAINLY IN THE 20S...BUT SOME UPPER TEENS POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE NORMALLY COLDER OUTLYING LOCATIONS.  PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON
SUNDAY AND WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD ALLOW MUCH OF THE REGION TO SEE
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 40S.

LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

EXTREMELY COMPLEX AND DIFFICULT FORECAST OVER THIS TIME PERIOD.  A
COUPLE OF POTENT SHORTWAVES WILL CARVE OUT A DEEP EAST COAST TROUGH.
THERE IS SO MUCH ENERGY IN THE FLOW THAT THE MODELS ARE GOING TO
HAVE A TOUGH TIME ON RESOLVING WHAT EXACTLY UNFOLDS.

FIRST THING IS FIRST...AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE WILL EMERGE OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AND RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST. CURRENT
INDICATIONS TAKE THE STORM SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK.  NOW OF
COURSE THAT IS 72+ HOURS OUT...SO A TRACK CLOSER TO THE COAST IS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE AND WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.  HOWEVER...EVEN IF
THE STORM PASSES WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK...MAY STILL END UP
WITH A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW EVENT ESPECIALLY ON THE COAST.  THIS
STORM LOOKS TO HAVE A FAIRLY BROAD CIRCULATION WITH 35 TO 50 KNOTS
OF ENE FLOW AT 850 MB...SO ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY FOR AT LEAST
THE COASTAL PLAIN.  ALSO...SOME LAND/SEA INTERFACE AND OCEAN
ENHANCEMENT MAY OCCUR IN EASTERN MA.

A SECOND POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL DROP DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
WILL ALLOW LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND
TRACK NORTHEAST TUE INTO EARLY WED.  A LOT OF WHAT HAPPENS WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE AFFECTED BY THE STRENGTH/TRACK OF THE FIRST SYSTEM ON
MONDAY.  THERE ARE A WIDE RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES...FROM A GLANCING
BLOW...TO A STRONG NOREASTER AND EVEN AN INVERTED TROUGH SETUP.

TO SUM UP...THE MAIN IDEA IS THAT WE ARE LIKELY TO RECEIVE AT LEAST
SOME SNOW AT TIMES MONDAY INTO WED.  WHETHER OR NOT WE SEE A
SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM REMAINS TO BE SEEN...BUT AS MENTIONED IN
THE PREVIOUS PARAGRAPHS ALL OPTIONS ARE ON THE TABLE.  WE ARE LIKELY
TO SEE AT LEAST SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...

LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY OVER THIS TIME FRAME.  WILL HAVE TO WATCH A WAVE
OR TWO OF LOW PRESSURE THAT MAY END UP BRINGING A BIT MORE
SNOW...BUT MUCH OF THIS PERIOD MAY END UP DRY.  GIVEN LOW
CONFIDENCE...WILL KEEP POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LINGERING SNOW EXITS THE
OUTER-CAPE/NANTUCKET BY 01Z WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING IN THOSE
LOCATIONS TO VFR BY 02Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT.  ANY
UNTREATED AND WET RUNWAYS WILL FREEZE AS TEMPERATURES DROP. WIND
GUSTS REMAIN N-NW BUT DIMINISH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

TOMORROW...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR. WINDS SHIFT TO THE SW...BUT
SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 10 KT OR LESS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...TIMING MAY BE OFF A
BIT.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS....TIMING MAY BE OFF A
BIT.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE ESPECIALLY ON TIMING.
PERIOD OR TWO OF SNOW LIKELY IN THIS TIME FRAME...SO WILL PROBABLY
SEE SOME IFR CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST ON MON. NORTHEAST
WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS LIKELY ON MONDAY ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING
HOURS SUCH THAT MOST GALE WARNINGS CAN BE DROPPED BY ABOUT
MIDNIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL HAVE TO FOLLOW...BECAUSE
EVEN THOUGH WINDS WILL DROP BELOW THRESHOLDS...HIGH SEAS OF 10-12
FT HAVE DEVELOPED AND WILL LINGER WELL INTO THE DAY TOMORROW.
SO...EXPECT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...MAINLY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS TO
FOLLOW.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LEFT OVER 5 FOOT SWELL
MAY LINGER INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS OUR EASTERN OUTER-
WATERS.  OTHERWISE...WINDS/SEAS WILL BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS WITH A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  GALE FORCE NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS
LIKELY AS A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIKELY TRACKS
SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK.  THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY FOR A PERIOD
OF STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS IF THAT SYSTEM TRACKS CLOSER TO THE COAST
THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED. SEAS LIKELY BUILD TO AT LEAST 15 FEET
ACROSS OUR EASTERN OUTER-WATERS WITH LONG NORTHEAST FETCH AND GOOD
MIXING.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.  AT THE VERY LEAST NORTHEAST
SMALL CRAFT WIND GUSTS AND HIGH SEAS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUE EVENING.
HOWEVER...POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER WIND GUSTS DEPENDING ON STRENGTH
AND LOCATION OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.  BY WEDNESDAY WIND
GUSTS AND SEAS ARE QUITE UNCERTAIN...DEPENDING ON WHAT HAPPENS WITH
THAT SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
MONDAY...

THERE IS A FAIRLY HIGH ASTRO TIDE OF 11.2 IN BOSTON LATE MONDAY
MORNING.  NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS FROM LARGE
CIRCULATION OF THE INTENSIFYING OCEAN STORM WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A
1 TO 1.5 SURGE.  SEAS SHOULD BE BUILT UP TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 FEET
BY THEN...SO FEEL THERE IS A DECENT SHOT FOR POCKETS OF MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING ALONG EASTERN MA COAST.  THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR
POCKETS OF MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING...IF THE STORMS ENDS UP A BIT
FASTER AND TRACKING FURTHER WEST THAN CURRENT GUIDANCE INDICATES.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...

MAIN CONCERN IS IF WE END UP WITH A SECOND AREA OF STRONG LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING UP THE COAST...WHICH COULD IMPACT ADDITIONAL HIGH
TIDE CYCLES. LARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE ON WHETHER OR NOT THIS
HAPPENS.  IF SO...WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE TUESDAY NOON HIGH TIDE
CYCLE ACROSS EASTERN MA AS BOSTON HAS AN 11.5 ASTRO TIDE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ231>235-
     237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ251-256.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...FRANK/DOODY
MARINE...FRANK/DOODY
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 060320
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1020 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY WEATHER THIS WEEKEND WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY. A PERIOD OR TWO OF ACCUMULATING SNOW IS
LIKELY MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN MA...BUT ITS
UNCERTAIN IF THIS WILL MAINLY BE A NUISANCE EVENT OR A SIGNIFICANT
WINTER STORM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...

1030 PM UPDATE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. CONTINUE TO MONITOR
TEMPS WHICH CONTINUE TO FALL TONIGHT. WINDS ARE STILL A BIT GUSTY
SO THAT HAS SLOWED RADIATION COOLING A BIT. OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS
AND CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AND QUIET WEATHER.


7 PM UPDATE...

ALL WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES HAVE BEEN DROPPED.  THE LAST OF THE
LIGHT SNOW WILL COME TO AN END BY 8 PM ACROSS THE OUTER-CAPE AND
NANTUCKET. OTHERWISE...SKIES HAVE BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE
REST OF THE REGION AND THIS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE CAPE/ISLANDS OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE REGION AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT WEAKENS.  FRESH SNOW COVER AND DIMINISHING WIND WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW GUIDANCE NUMBERS IN THE OUTLYING
LOCATIONS.  LOWS WILL RANGE FROM BETWEEN 10 AND 15 ACROSS THE
OUTLYING LOCATIONS...TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S IN THE URBAN HEAT
ISLANDS OF DOWNTOWN BOSTON/PROVIDENCE.

A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT CONTINUES THIS EVENING...AS FALLING
TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW ANY STANDING WATER/SLUSH TO FREEZE SOLID.
MOTORISTS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR BLACK ICE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
NOSE OF HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER FROM THE W. THE COMBINATION OF COLD
ADVECTION ALOFT AND SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW-MID LVL MOISTURE
SUGGESTS SOME AFTERNOON CLOUD DEVELOPMENT...BUT LITTLE ELSE.
DROPPED HIGHS A LITTLE BIT FROM CURRENT FORECASTS AS THE ADDED
SNOWPACK WILL LIKELY KEEP 2M TEMPS A BIT LOWER THAN SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE IS CURRENTLY SUGGESTING. EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY WITH RELATIVELY MILD TEMPS SUN
* PERIOD OR TWO OF ACCUMULATING SNOW LIKELY MON-WED ESPECIALLY COAST
* UNCERTAIN IF MON-WED IS NUISANCE SNOW OR SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM

DETAILS...

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...

WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER.  LOW TEMPS
SAT NIGHT MAINLY IN THE 20S...BUT SOME UPPER TEENS POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE NORMALLY COLDER OUTLYING LOCATIONS.  PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON
SUNDAY AND WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD ALLOW MUCH OF THE REGION TO SEE
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 40S.

LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

EXTREMELY COMPLEX AND DIFFICULT FORECAST OVER THIS TIME PERIOD.  A
COUPLE OF POTENT SHORTWAVES WILL CARVE OUT A DEEP EAST COAST TROUGH.
THERE IS SO MUCH ENERGY IN THE FLOW THAT THE MODELS ARE GOING TO
HAVE A TOUGH TIME ON RESOLVING WHAT EXACTLY UNFOLDS.

FIRST THING IS FIRST...AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE WILL EMERGE OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AND RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST. CURRENT
INDICATIONS TAKE THE STORM SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK.  NOW OF
COURSE THAT IS 72+ HOURS OUT...SO A TRACK CLOSER TO THE COAST IS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE AND WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.  HOWEVER...EVEN IF
THE STORM PASSES WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK...MAY STILL END UP
WITH A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW EVENT ESPECIALLY ON THE COAST.  THIS
STORM LOOKS TO HAVE A FAIRLY BROAD CIRCULATION WITH 35 TO 50 KNOTS
OF ENE FLOW AT 850 MB...SO ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY FOR AT LEAST
THE COASTAL PLAIN.  ALSO...SOME LAND/SEA INTERFACE AND OCEAN
ENHANCEMENT MAY OCCUR IN EASTERN MA.

A SECOND POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL DROP DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
WILL ALLOW LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND
TRACK NORTHEAST TUE INTO EARLY WED.  A LOT OF WHAT HAPPENS WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE AFFECTED BY THE STRENGTH/TRACK OF THE FIRST SYSTEM ON
MONDAY.  THERE ARE A WIDE RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES...FROM A GLANCING
BLOW...TO A STRONG NOREASTER AND EVEN AN INVERTED TROUGH SETUP.

TO SUM UP...THE MAIN IDEA IS THAT WE ARE LIKELY TO RECEIVE AT LEAST
SOME SNOW AT TIMES MONDAY INTO WED.  WHETHER OR NOT WE SEE A
SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM REMAINS TO BE SEEN...BUT AS MENTIONED IN
THE PREVIOUS PARAGRAPHS ALL OPTIONS ARE ON THE TABLE.  WE ARE LIKELY
TO SEE AT LEAST SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...

LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY OVER THIS TIME FRAME.  WILL HAVE TO WATCH A WAVE
OR TWO OF LOW PRESSURE THAT MAY END UP BRINGING A BIT MORE
SNOW...BUT MUCH OF THIS PERIOD MAY END UP DRY.  GIVEN LOW
CONFIDENCE...WILL KEEP POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LINGERING SNOW EXITS THE
OUTER-CAPE/NANTUCKET BY 01Z WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING IN THOSE
LOCATIONS TO VFR BY 02Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT.  ANY
UNTREATED AND WET RUNWAYS WILL FREEZE AS TEMPERATURES DROP. WIND
GUSTS REMAIN N-NW BUT DIMINISH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

TOMORROW...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR. WINDS SHIFT TO THE SW...BUT
SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 10 KT OR LESS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...TIMING MAY BE OFF A
BIT.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS....TIMING MAY BE OFF A
BIT.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE ESPECIALLY ON TIMING.
PERIOD OR TWO OF SNOW LIKELY IN THIS TIME FRAME...SO WILL PROBABLY
SEE SOME IFR CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST ON MON. NORTHEAST
WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS LIKELY ON MONDAY ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING
HOURS SUCH THAT MOST GALE WARNINGS CAN BE DROPPED BY ABOUT
MIDNIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL HAVE TO FOLLOW...BECAUSE
EVEN THOUGH WINDS WILL DROP BELOW THRESHOLDS...HIGH SEAS OF 10-12
FT HAVE DEVELOPED AND WILL LINGER WELL INTO THE DAY TOMORROW.
SO...EXPECT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...MAINLY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS TO
FOLLOW.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LEFT OVER 5 FOOT SWELL
MAY LINGER INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS OUR EASTERN OUTER-
WATERS.  OTHERWISE...WINDS/SEAS WILL BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS WITH A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  GALE FORCE NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS
LIKELY AS A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIKELY TRACKS
SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK.  THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY FOR A PERIOD
OF STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS IF THAT SYSTEM TRACKS CLOSER TO THE COAST
THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED. SEAS LIKELY BUILD TO AT LEAST 15 FEET
ACROSS OUR EASTERN OUTER-WATERS WITH LONG NORTHEAST FETCH AND GOOD
MIXING.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.  AT THE VERY LEAST NORTHEAST
SMALL CRAFT WIND GUSTS AND HIGH SEAS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUE EVENING.
HOWEVER...POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER WIND GUSTS DEPENDING ON STRENGTH
AND LOCATION OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.  BY WEDNESDAY WIND
GUSTS AND SEAS ARE QUITE UNCERTAIN...DEPENDING ON WHAT HAPPENS WITH
THAT SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
MONDAY...

THERE IS A FAIRLY HIGH ASTRO TIDE OF 11.2 IN BOSTON LATE MONDAY
MORNING.  NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS FROM LARGE
CIRCULATION OF THE INTENSIFYING OCEAN STORM WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A
1 TO 1.5 SURGE.  SEAS SHOULD BE BUILT UP TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 FEET
BY THEN...SO FEEL THERE IS A DECENT SHOT FOR POCKETS OF MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING ALONG EASTERN MA COAST.  THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR
POCKETS OF MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING...IF THE STORMS ENDS UP A BIT
FASTER AND TRACKING FURTHER WEST THAN CURRENT GUIDANCE INDICATES.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...

MAIN CONCERN IS IF WE END UP WITH A SECOND AREA OF STRONG LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING UP THE COAST...WHICH COULD IMPACT ADDITIONAL HIGH
TIDE CYCLES. LARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE ON WHETHER OR NOT THIS
HAPPENS.  IF SO...WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE TUESDAY NOON HIGH TIDE
CYCLE ACROSS EASTERN MA AS BOSTON HAS AN 11.5 ASTRO TIDE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ231>235-
     237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ251-256.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...FRANK/DOODY
MARINE...FRANK/DOODY
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KOKX 060039
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
739 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL HEAD NORTHEAST AND FARTHER
AWAY FROM THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST TONIGHT AND REMAIN INTO THIS WEEKEND. DEEP LOW PRESSURE
WILL TRACK OVER THE ATLANTIC LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
AN ACTIVE WINTER PATTERN WILL THEN SET UP OVER THE AREA THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
CLEAR SKIES OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AS THE LOW DEPARTS AND HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN. EXPECT VERY GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES LATE TONIGHT OVER
FRESH SNOW PACK. EXPECT TEMPS WELL DOWN INTO THE TEENS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND LONG ISLAND PINE BARRENS BARRENS REGIONS...AND INTO
THE 20S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH A DEVELOPING SPLIT UPPER FLOW.
A NORTHERN STREAM CUTOFF LOW WILL TRACK FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO INTO
CENTRAL QUEBEC SAT INTO SAT NIGHT...WITH RESULTANT CLIPPER SYSTEM
TAKING A SIMILAR TRACK. MEANWHILE A CUTOFF LOW SEPARATES INTO THE
SOUTHERN STATES SAT INTO SAT NIGHT FROM THE BASE OF AN APPROACHING
CENTRAL STATES TROUGH...WITH RESULTANT LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE GULF COAST.

EXPECT TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE CENTRAL US SAT MORNING...AND THEN SINKS SE OF
THE REGION FOR SAT AFT INTO SAT NIGHT.

HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S SATURDAY...BASED ON A
SLIGHT REDUCTION OF GUIDANCE BLEND DUE TO NEW SNOW PACK.
POTENTIAL FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS ACROSS INTERIOR
ONCE AGAIN SAT NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THIS MAY BE TEMPERED BY HIGH
CLOUDS AND SW WINDS NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRES WILL BEGIN TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OFF THE SERN CONUS ON SUN.
A WEAK RIDGE OF HI PRES OVER THE CWA DURING THIS TIME SO FAIR WX
WITH TEMPS AROUND AVG. THE LOW THEN TRACKS NEWD OVER THE
ATLC...REACHING A POINT ABOUT 350 MILES E OF THE BENCHMARK MON AFTN.
THE MODELS ARE IN REMARKABLE AGREEMENT WRT TO THE POSITION OF THE
LOW...WITH THE 12Z GEFS/GEM/GFS/ECMWF SOLNS VIRTUALLY STACKED ON TOP
OF EACH OTHER. THERE ARE SOME INTENSITY DIFFERENCES...BUT NOT MUCH.
AT 18Z MON...THE ECMWF GETS DOWN TO 971...THE GEM 975 AND THE GFS
977. THE GFS AND GEM HAVE TRENDED WWD. THE ECMWF IS RELATIVELY
UNCHANGED. BASED ON MODEL PROGS FOR THIS STORM EARLY THIS
WEEK...MODEL PERFORMANCE THIS YEAR AND CURRENT TRENDS...EXPECTING
THE STORM TO END UP TRACKING W OF THE CURRENT PROGS. AS A
RESULT...FCST DATA IS AUGMENTED ABV THE SUPERBLEND FOR WINDS AND
POPS. AT LEAST MINOR TIDAL FLOODING POSSIBLE WITH A NEW MOON ON MON.
WILL START A MENTION IN THE HWO FOR THE SYS. ALTHOUGH THE CURRENT
MODEL DATA SUGGESTS ONLY A GLANCING BLOW AT BEST...ALL INTERESTS
SHOULD PAY ATTENTION TO THIS STORM AS A MID 970S LOW TRACKING UP THE
COAST WOULD HAVE SERIOUS IMPACTS. ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO THE H5
LOW DROPPING INTO THE NERN CONUS TUE-THU. THE PATTERN SUPPORTS THE
DEVELOPMENT OF 2 WEAK LOWS TUE AND WED S OF THE REGION...PROVIDING
CHCS FOR SNOW. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY...WITH THE ULTIMATE
LATITUDE OF THE SYS DICTATING SNOW CHCS AND AMTS. IN ADDITION...IF
THE PATTERN EASES UP AT ALL AND THE LOWS DEVELOP FURTHER NWD...SOME
RAIN IN THE MIX PARTICULARLY CSTL AREAS.  ARCTIC AIR STILL LOOKS
POISED FOR THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF USHERS IT IN WITH A CLIPPER FRI
WHICH WOULD BRING MORE SNOW CHCS. IN SUMMARY...THERE ARE CHCS FOR
PCPN IN EVERY PERIOD OF THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST
THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST FOR SATURDAY. SOME
LEFTOVER GUSTS 25-30KT CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS
TOMORROW WILL REMAIN 10KT OR LESS.

   NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY END AN HOUR OR SO EARLIER THAN
FORECAST THIS EVE.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY END AN HOUR OR SO EARLIER THAN
FORECAST THIS EVE.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY END AN HOUR OR SO EARLIER THAN
FORECAST THIS EVE.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY END AN HOUR OR SO EARLIER THAN
FORECAST THIS EVE.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY END AN HOUR OR SO EARLIER THAN
FORECAST THIS EVE.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY END AN HOUR OR SO EARLIER THAN
FORECAST THIS EVE.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SATURDAY-SUNDAY...VFR.
.MONDAY...CHC SUB-VFR AND SNOW...ESPECIALLY EAST OF CITY. CHC NE
GUSTS AROUND 25KT.
.TUESDAY...SUB-VFR WITH SNOW LIKELY...POSSIBLY MIXED PTYPE DURING
THE AFTN AT THE COAST...TAPERING OFF LATE IN THE DAY.
.WEDNESDAY...CHC SUB-VFR WITH -SHSN. NW GUST AROUND 25KT.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WARNING REPLACED WITH SCA OUT EAST AS PEAK WINDS QUICKLY
DIMINISHED BELOW 35 KT AT 44017...SO SCA CONDS NOW ARE IN EFFECT
FOR ALL WATERS UNTIL 10 PM...AND FOR THE OCEAN THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT...THOUGH CONDS THERE MAY EVEN SUBSIDE SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SUB SCA CONDS EXPECTED ON ALL WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH WINDS GUSTS UP TO 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN
LATE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT.

WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS ON SUN...THEN DEEP LOW PRES WILL TRACK E
OF THE WATERS SUN NGT AND MON. THIS WILL PRODUCE AT LEAST SCA
COND...WITH GALES POSSIBLE. IF THE STORM TRACKS CLOSE
ENOUGH...STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SCA COND ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST ON
THE OCEAN RIGHT THRU THU. ELSEWHERE...PERIODS OF SCA LVL WINDS
POSSIBLE WITH NW FLOW DEVELOPING...ESPECIALLY WED AND THU.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD PCPN IS POSSIBLE LATE SUN NGT THRU MON...AND AGAIN DURING
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE PCPN THAT FALLS
LIKELY TO BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW ATTM.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-
     335-338-340-345.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-353.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/NV
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...JMC/GOODMAN/NV
HYDROLOGY...JMC/NV



000
FXUS61 KOKX 060039
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
739 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL HEAD NORTHEAST AND FARTHER
AWAY FROM THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST TONIGHT AND REMAIN INTO THIS WEEKEND. DEEP LOW PRESSURE
WILL TRACK OVER THE ATLANTIC LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
AN ACTIVE WINTER PATTERN WILL THEN SET UP OVER THE AREA THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
CLEAR SKIES OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AS THE LOW DEPARTS AND HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN. EXPECT VERY GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES LATE TONIGHT OVER
FRESH SNOW PACK. EXPECT TEMPS WELL DOWN INTO THE TEENS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND LONG ISLAND PINE BARRENS BARRENS REGIONS...AND INTO
THE 20S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH A DEVELOPING SPLIT UPPER FLOW.
A NORTHERN STREAM CUTOFF LOW WILL TRACK FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO INTO
CENTRAL QUEBEC SAT INTO SAT NIGHT...WITH RESULTANT CLIPPER SYSTEM
TAKING A SIMILAR TRACK. MEANWHILE A CUTOFF LOW SEPARATES INTO THE
SOUTHERN STATES SAT INTO SAT NIGHT FROM THE BASE OF AN APPROACHING
CENTRAL STATES TROUGH...WITH RESULTANT LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE GULF COAST.

EXPECT TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE CENTRAL US SAT MORNING...AND THEN SINKS SE OF
THE REGION FOR SAT AFT INTO SAT NIGHT.

HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S SATURDAY...BASED ON A
SLIGHT REDUCTION OF GUIDANCE BLEND DUE TO NEW SNOW PACK.
POTENTIAL FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS ACROSS INTERIOR
ONCE AGAIN SAT NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THIS MAY BE TEMPERED BY HIGH
CLOUDS AND SW WINDS NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRES WILL BEGIN TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OFF THE SERN CONUS ON SUN.
A WEAK RIDGE OF HI PRES OVER THE CWA DURING THIS TIME SO FAIR WX
WITH TEMPS AROUND AVG. THE LOW THEN TRACKS NEWD OVER THE
ATLC...REACHING A POINT ABOUT 350 MILES E OF THE BENCHMARK MON AFTN.
THE MODELS ARE IN REMARKABLE AGREEMENT WRT TO THE POSITION OF THE
LOW...WITH THE 12Z GEFS/GEM/GFS/ECMWF SOLNS VIRTUALLY STACKED ON TOP
OF EACH OTHER. THERE ARE SOME INTENSITY DIFFERENCES...BUT NOT MUCH.
AT 18Z MON...THE ECMWF GETS DOWN TO 971...THE GEM 975 AND THE GFS
977. THE GFS AND GEM HAVE TRENDED WWD. THE ECMWF IS RELATIVELY
UNCHANGED. BASED ON MODEL PROGS FOR THIS STORM EARLY THIS
WEEK...MODEL PERFORMANCE THIS YEAR AND CURRENT TRENDS...EXPECTING
THE STORM TO END UP TRACKING W OF THE CURRENT PROGS. AS A
RESULT...FCST DATA IS AUGMENTED ABV THE SUPERBLEND FOR WINDS AND
POPS. AT LEAST MINOR TIDAL FLOODING POSSIBLE WITH A NEW MOON ON MON.
WILL START A MENTION IN THE HWO FOR THE SYS. ALTHOUGH THE CURRENT
MODEL DATA SUGGESTS ONLY A GLANCING BLOW AT BEST...ALL INTERESTS
SHOULD PAY ATTENTION TO THIS STORM AS A MID 970S LOW TRACKING UP THE
COAST WOULD HAVE SERIOUS IMPACTS. ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO THE H5
LOW DROPPING INTO THE NERN CONUS TUE-THU. THE PATTERN SUPPORTS THE
DEVELOPMENT OF 2 WEAK LOWS TUE AND WED S OF THE REGION...PROVIDING
CHCS FOR SNOW. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY...WITH THE ULTIMATE
LATITUDE OF THE SYS DICTATING SNOW CHCS AND AMTS. IN ADDITION...IF
THE PATTERN EASES UP AT ALL AND THE LOWS DEVELOP FURTHER NWD...SOME
RAIN IN THE MIX PARTICULARLY CSTL AREAS.  ARCTIC AIR STILL LOOKS
POISED FOR THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF USHERS IT IN WITH A CLIPPER FRI
WHICH WOULD BRING MORE SNOW CHCS. IN SUMMARY...THERE ARE CHCS FOR
PCPN IN EVERY PERIOD OF THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST
THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST FOR SATURDAY. SOME
LEFTOVER GUSTS 25-30KT CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS
TOMORROW WILL REMAIN 10KT OR LESS.

   NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY END AN HOUR OR SO EARLIER THAN
FORECAST THIS EVE.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY END AN HOUR OR SO EARLIER THAN
FORECAST THIS EVE.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY END AN HOUR OR SO EARLIER THAN
FORECAST THIS EVE.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY END AN HOUR OR SO EARLIER THAN
FORECAST THIS EVE.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY END AN HOUR OR SO EARLIER THAN
FORECAST THIS EVE.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY END AN HOUR OR SO EARLIER THAN
FORECAST THIS EVE.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SATURDAY-SUNDAY...VFR.
.MONDAY...CHC SUB-VFR AND SNOW...ESPECIALLY EAST OF CITY. CHC NE
GUSTS AROUND 25KT.
.TUESDAY...SUB-VFR WITH SNOW LIKELY...POSSIBLY MIXED PTYPE DURING
THE AFTN AT THE COAST...TAPERING OFF LATE IN THE DAY.
.WEDNESDAY...CHC SUB-VFR WITH -SHSN. NW GUST AROUND 25KT.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WARNING REPLACED WITH SCA OUT EAST AS PEAK WINDS QUICKLY
DIMINISHED BELOW 35 KT AT 44017...SO SCA CONDS NOW ARE IN EFFECT
FOR ALL WATERS UNTIL 10 PM...AND FOR THE OCEAN THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT...THOUGH CONDS THERE MAY EVEN SUBSIDE SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SUB SCA CONDS EXPECTED ON ALL WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH WINDS GUSTS UP TO 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN
LATE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT.

WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS ON SUN...THEN DEEP LOW PRES WILL TRACK E
OF THE WATERS SUN NGT AND MON. THIS WILL PRODUCE AT LEAST SCA
COND...WITH GALES POSSIBLE. IF THE STORM TRACKS CLOSE
ENOUGH...STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SCA COND ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST ON
THE OCEAN RIGHT THRU THU. ELSEWHERE...PERIODS OF SCA LVL WINDS
POSSIBLE WITH NW FLOW DEVELOPING...ESPECIALLY WED AND THU.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD PCPN IS POSSIBLE LATE SUN NGT THRU MON...AND AGAIN DURING
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE PCPN THAT FALLS
LIKELY TO BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW ATTM.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-
     335-338-340-345.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-353.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/NV
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...JMC/GOODMAN/NV
HYDROLOGY...JMC/NV




000
FXUS61 KOKX 060039
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
739 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL HEAD NORTHEAST AND FARTHER
AWAY FROM THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST TONIGHT AND REMAIN INTO THIS WEEKEND. DEEP LOW PRESSURE
WILL TRACK OVER THE ATLANTIC LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
AN ACTIVE WINTER PATTERN WILL THEN SET UP OVER THE AREA THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
CLEAR SKIES OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AS THE LOW DEPARTS AND HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN. EXPECT VERY GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES LATE TONIGHT OVER
FRESH SNOW PACK. EXPECT TEMPS WELL DOWN INTO THE TEENS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND LONG ISLAND PINE BARRENS BARRENS REGIONS...AND INTO
THE 20S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH A DEVELOPING SPLIT UPPER FLOW.
A NORTHERN STREAM CUTOFF LOW WILL TRACK FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO INTO
CENTRAL QUEBEC SAT INTO SAT NIGHT...WITH RESULTANT CLIPPER SYSTEM
TAKING A SIMILAR TRACK. MEANWHILE A CUTOFF LOW SEPARATES INTO THE
SOUTHERN STATES SAT INTO SAT NIGHT FROM THE BASE OF AN APPROACHING
CENTRAL STATES TROUGH...WITH RESULTANT LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE GULF COAST.

EXPECT TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE CENTRAL US SAT MORNING...AND THEN SINKS SE OF
THE REGION FOR SAT AFT INTO SAT NIGHT.

HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S SATURDAY...BASED ON A
SLIGHT REDUCTION OF GUIDANCE BLEND DUE TO NEW SNOW PACK.
POTENTIAL FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS ACROSS INTERIOR
ONCE AGAIN SAT NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THIS MAY BE TEMPERED BY HIGH
CLOUDS AND SW WINDS NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRES WILL BEGIN TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OFF THE SERN CONUS ON SUN.
A WEAK RIDGE OF HI PRES OVER THE CWA DURING THIS TIME SO FAIR WX
WITH TEMPS AROUND AVG. THE LOW THEN TRACKS NEWD OVER THE
ATLC...REACHING A POINT ABOUT 350 MILES E OF THE BENCHMARK MON AFTN.
THE MODELS ARE IN REMARKABLE AGREEMENT WRT TO THE POSITION OF THE
LOW...WITH THE 12Z GEFS/GEM/GFS/ECMWF SOLNS VIRTUALLY STACKED ON TOP
OF EACH OTHER. THERE ARE SOME INTENSITY DIFFERENCES...BUT NOT MUCH.
AT 18Z MON...THE ECMWF GETS DOWN TO 971...THE GEM 975 AND THE GFS
977. THE GFS AND GEM HAVE TRENDED WWD. THE ECMWF IS RELATIVELY
UNCHANGED. BASED ON MODEL PROGS FOR THIS STORM EARLY THIS
WEEK...MODEL PERFORMANCE THIS YEAR AND CURRENT TRENDS...EXPECTING
THE STORM TO END UP TRACKING W OF THE CURRENT PROGS. AS A
RESULT...FCST DATA IS AUGMENTED ABV THE SUPERBLEND FOR WINDS AND
POPS. AT LEAST MINOR TIDAL FLOODING POSSIBLE WITH A NEW MOON ON MON.
WILL START A MENTION IN THE HWO FOR THE SYS. ALTHOUGH THE CURRENT
MODEL DATA SUGGESTS ONLY A GLANCING BLOW AT BEST...ALL INTERESTS
SHOULD PAY ATTENTION TO THIS STORM AS A MID 970S LOW TRACKING UP THE
COAST WOULD HAVE SERIOUS IMPACTS. ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO THE H5
LOW DROPPING INTO THE NERN CONUS TUE-THU. THE PATTERN SUPPORTS THE
DEVELOPMENT OF 2 WEAK LOWS TUE AND WED S OF THE REGION...PROVIDING
CHCS FOR SNOW. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY...WITH THE ULTIMATE
LATITUDE OF THE SYS DICTATING SNOW CHCS AND AMTS. IN ADDITION...IF
THE PATTERN EASES UP AT ALL AND THE LOWS DEVELOP FURTHER NWD...SOME
RAIN IN THE MIX PARTICULARLY CSTL AREAS.  ARCTIC AIR STILL LOOKS
POISED FOR THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF USHERS IT IN WITH A CLIPPER FRI
WHICH WOULD BRING MORE SNOW CHCS. IN SUMMARY...THERE ARE CHCS FOR
PCPN IN EVERY PERIOD OF THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST
THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST FOR SATURDAY. SOME
LEFTOVER GUSTS 25-30KT CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS
TOMORROW WILL REMAIN 10KT OR LESS.

   NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY END AN HOUR OR SO EARLIER THAN
FORECAST THIS EVE.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY END AN HOUR OR SO EARLIER THAN
FORECAST THIS EVE.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY END AN HOUR OR SO EARLIER THAN
FORECAST THIS EVE.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY END AN HOUR OR SO EARLIER THAN
FORECAST THIS EVE.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY END AN HOUR OR SO EARLIER THAN
FORECAST THIS EVE.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY END AN HOUR OR SO EARLIER THAN
FORECAST THIS EVE.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SATURDAY-SUNDAY...VFR.
.MONDAY...CHC SUB-VFR AND SNOW...ESPECIALLY EAST OF CITY. CHC NE
GUSTS AROUND 25KT.
.TUESDAY...SUB-VFR WITH SNOW LIKELY...POSSIBLY MIXED PTYPE DURING
THE AFTN AT THE COAST...TAPERING OFF LATE IN THE DAY.
.WEDNESDAY...CHC SUB-VFR WITH -SHSN. NW GUST AROUND 25KT.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WARNING REPLACED WITH SCA OUT EAST AS PEAK WINDS QUICKLY
DIMINISHED BELOW 35 KT AT 44017...SO SCA CONDS NOW ARE IN EFFECT
FOR ALL WATERS UNTIL 10 PM...AND FOR THE OCEAN THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT...THOUGH CONDS THERE MAY EVEN SUBSIDE SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SUB SCA CONDS EXPECTED ON ALL WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH WINDS GUSTS UP TO 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN
LATE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT.

WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS ON SUN...THEN DEEP LOW PRES WILL TRACK E
OF THE WATERS SUN NGT AND MON. THIS WILL PRODUCE AT LEAST SCA
COND...WITH GALES POSSIBLE. IF THE STORM TRACKS CLOSE
ENOUGH...STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SCA COND ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST ON
THE OCEAN RIGHT THRU THU. ELSEWHERE...PERIODS OF SCA LVL WINDS
POSSIBLE WITH NW FLOW DEVELOPING...ESPECIALLY WED AND THU.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD PCPN IS POSSIBLE LATE SUN NGT THRU MON...AND AGAIN DURING
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE PCPN THAT FALLS
LIKELY TO BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW ATTM.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-
     335-338-340-345.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-353.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/NV
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...JMC/GOODMAN/NV
HYDROLOGY...JMC/NV




000
FXUS61 KALY 060018
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
718 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVERNIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE
OUR WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND. A FAST MOVING...CLIPPER...LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
LITTLE IMPACT ON THE LOCAL AREA. SOME SNOW IS POSSIBLE FOR MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL WEAKEN AS THE
LOW OFF NEW ENGLAND COAST MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM
THE AREA AND RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE. SKIES HAVE ALREADY
CLEARED AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.

SOME HIGH THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL STREAM IN OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER
WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO DROP TO NEAR SEASONABLY COLD READINGS...WITH LOWS
MAINLY IN THE TEENS.

BY LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...A WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW OFF
LAKE ONTARIO WILL PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL WEAKEN DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AND BE
SURPRESSED TO THE SOUTH AS FAST MOVING CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERN
STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THIS WILL CAUSE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS
DURING THE DAY AND WILL ALSO CAUSE ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
TO SHIFT NORTH OUT OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AS THE FLOW BECOMES
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.

HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO FRIDAY`S RANGING FROM THE UPPER
20S TO LOWER 40S WITH MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA IN 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY DRY OUTSIDE OF MORE UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. A CLIPPER SYSTEM RIDING TO THE
NORTH OF OUR REGION...WILL ENHANCE THE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS AND EVEN INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
20S.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION
TO WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY MIDDAY SUNDAY...AND THE HUDSON VALLEY
AND REMAINING AREAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SOME CLOUDS AND
SPRINKLES/FLURRIES COULD ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...AS THE FRONT WILL
HAVE EXTREMELY LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.

THERE WILL BE A WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO WEST AS THE DAY WEAR
ON...WITH WIND SPEEDS AGAIN AVERAGING AROUND 10 MPH WITH SOME
HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM 30-35 ACROSS THE ELEVATED
TERRAIN...35-40 THE UPPER HUDSON AND MOHAWK VALLEYS/40-45
ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD FROM EASTERN
CANADA TO PROVIDE A MAINLY DRY NIGHT WITH LOWS 20-25 ALBANY
SOUTHWARD...TEENS FURTHER NORTH. THE SKY WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY.

MONDAY WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH A STORM AS IT LOOKS TO TRACK WELL
OFFSHORE THE CAROLINAS. THE COMBINATION OF THE LOW AND
HIGH TO THE NORTH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE AN ONSHORE FLOW OF
INCREASING MOISTURE WITH PERHAPS SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
BREAKING UP MAINLY SOUTH OF I-90.

HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE NOTABLY COLDER THAN SUNDAY...30-35
VALLEYS... 35-30 HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A FAIRLY ACTIVE PERIOD IS EXPECTED DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH
A GREAT DEAL OF CLOUDINESS AND SOME SNOW EXPECTED DURING THE MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME.

ON MONDAY NIGHT A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES AS A SECONDARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE
DELMARVA PENINSULA. THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
THERE WILL ONLY BE MINOR IMPACTS FROM THESE SYSTEMS. BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING THE COASTAL LOW WILL BE UP IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AS THE
CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE FA FOLLOWED BY AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IN THE WAKE OF THE CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM
EXPECT SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SINCE THIS IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO BRING A
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO OUR REGION WE WILL BE REMOVING THE MENTION
OF SIGNIFICANT SNOW FROM OUR HWO. THE 12Z GEFS PLUME DIAGRAM FOR
ALBANY GENERALLY HAS A RANGE OF A TENTH TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH
FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A FEW MEMBERS SHOWING UP TO
FOUR TENTHS OF AN INCH OF QPF.

IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY COLDER DURING THE PERIOD WITH MUCH MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPS FOR FEBRUARY. HIGHS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN
THE MID TEENS TO UPPER 20S. LOWS ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S WITH LOWS ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO UPPER TEENS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...00Z SUNDAY.

THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL WEAKEN AS THE
LOW OFF NEW ENGLAND COAST MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM
THE AREA AND RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE. SKIES HAVE ALREADY
CLEARED AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TO CALM.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL WEAKEN DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AND BE
SURPRESSED TO THE SOUTH AS FAST MOVING CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERN
STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THIS WILL CAUSE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS
DURING THE DAY.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON SATURDAY AT 5 TO 10
KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE TEENS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AT KALB.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT-SUN NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
MON NIGHT-WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO CONCERNS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS AS ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT OR IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

THE THIRD WINTER SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE SEASON WAS ISSUED
ON FEBRUARY 4TH.

HIGHLIGHTS...REFER TO THE PRODUCTS FOR DETAILS (ALBESFALY):

DUE TO BELOW NORMAL SNOW COVER AND RIVER ICE...POTENTIAL FOR
SNOWMELT AND ICE JAM FLOODING IS LOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

ALTHOUGH WATER SUPPLY LEVELS ARE NOT A CONCERN AT THE MOMENT...THERE
IS CURRENTLY VERY LITTLE SNOW WATER AVAILABLE FOR RESERVOIR RECHARGE
ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. IT WILL TAKE A STEADY SUPPLY OF RAIN AND
SNOW THROUGH SPRING INTO SUMMER FOR RESERVOIRS TO MAINTAIN ADEQUATE
LEVELS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/NAS



000
FXUS61 KALY 060018
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
718 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVERNIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE
OUR WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND. A FAST MOVING...CLIPPER...LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
LITTLE IMPACT ON THE LOCAL AREA. SOME SNOW IS POSSIBLE FOR MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL WEAKEN AS THE
LOW OFF NEW ENGLAND COAST MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM
THE AREA AND RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE. SKIES HAVE ALREADY
CLEARED AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.

SOME HIGH THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL STREAM IN OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER
WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO DROP TO NEAR SEASONABLY COLD READINGS...WITH LOWS
MAINLY IN THE TEENS.

BY LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...A WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW OFF
LAKE ONTARIO WILL PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL WEAKEN DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AND BE
SURPRESSED TO THE SOUTH AS FAST MOVING CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERN
STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THIS WILL CAUSE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS
DURING THE DAY AND WILL ALSO CAUSE ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
TO SHIFT NORTH OUT OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AS THE FLOW BECOMES
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.

HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO FRIDAY`S RANGING FROM THE UPPER
20S TO LOWER 40S WITH MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA IN 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY DRY OUTSIDE OF MORE UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. A CLIPPER SYSTEM RIDING TO THE
NORTH OF OUR REGION...WILL ENHANCE THE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS AND EVEN INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
20S.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION
TO WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY MIDDAY SUNDAY...AND THE HUDSON VALLEY
AND REMAINING AREAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SOME CLOUDS AND
SPRINKLES/FLURRIES COULD ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...AS THE FRONT WILL
HAVE EXTREMELY LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.

THERE WILL BE A WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO WEST AS THE DAY WEAR
ON...WITH WIND SPEEDS AGAIN AVERAGING AROUND 10 MPH WITH SOME
HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM 30-35 ACROSS THE ELEVATED
TERRAIN...35-40 THE UPPER HUDSON AND MOHAWK VALLEYS/40-45
ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD FROM EASTERN
CANADA TO PROVIDE A MAINLY DRY NIGHT WITH LOWS 20-25 ALBANY
SOUTHWARD...TEENS FURTHER NORTH. THE SKY WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY.

MONDAY WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH A STORM AS IT LOOKS TO TRACK WELL
OFFSHORE THE CAROLINAS. THE COMBINATION OF THE LOW AND
HIGH TO THE NORTH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE AN ONSHORE FLOW OF
INCREASING MOISTURE WITH PERHAPS SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
BREAKING UP MAINLY SOUTH OF I-90.

HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE NOTABLY COLDER THAN SUNDAY...30-35
VALLEYS... 35-30 HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A FAIRLY ACTIVE PERIOD IS EXPECTED DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH
A GREAT DEAL OF CLOUDINESS AND SOME SNOW EXPECTED DURING THE MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME.

ON MONDAY NIGHT A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES AS A SECONDARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE
DELMARVA PENINSULA. THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
THERE WILL ONLY BE MINOR IMPACTS FROM THESE SYSTEMS. BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING THE COASTAL LOW WILL BE UP IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AS THE
CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE FA FOLLOWED BY AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IN THE WAKE OF THE CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM
EXPECT SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SINCE THIS IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO BRING A
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO OUR REGION WE WILL BE REMOVING THE MENTION
OF SIGNIFICANT SNOW FROM OUR HWO. THE 12Z GEFS PLUME DIAGRAM FOR
ALBANY GENERALLY HAS A RANGE OF A TENTH TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH
FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A FEW MEMBERS SHOWING UP TO
FOUR TENTHS OF AN INCH OF QPF.

IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY COLDER DURING THE PERIOD WITH MUCH MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPS FOR FEBRUARY. HIGHS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN
THE MID TEENS TO UPPER 20S. LOWS ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S WITH LOWS ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO UPPER TEENS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...00Z SUNDAY.

THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL WEAKEN AS THE
LOW OFF NEW ENGLAND COAST MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM
THE AREA AND RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE. SKIES HAVE ALREADY
CLEARED AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TO CALM.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL WEAKEN DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AND BE
SURPRESSED TO THE SOUTH AS FAST MOVING CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERN
STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THIS WILL CAUSE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS
DURING THE DAY.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON SATURDAY AT 5 TO 10
KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE TEENS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AT KALB.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT-SUN NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
MON NIGHT-WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO CONCERNS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS AS ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT OR IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

THE THIRD WINTER SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE SEASON WAS ISSUED
ON FEBRUARY 4TH.

HIGHLIGHTS...REFER TO THE PRODUCTS FOR DETAILS (ALBESFALY):

DUE TO BELOW NORMAL SNOW COVER AND RIVER ICE...POTENTIAL FOR
SNOWMELT AND ICE JAM FLOODING IS LOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

ALTHOUGH WATER SUPPLY LEVELS ARE NOT A CONCERN AT THE MOMENT...THERE
IS CURRENTLY VERY LITTLE SNOW WATER AVAILABLE FOR RESERVOIR RECHARGE
ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. IT WILL TAKE A STEADY SUPPLY OF RAIN AND
SNOW THROUGH SPRING INTO SUMMER FOR RESERVOIRS TO MAINTAIN ADEQUATE
LEVELS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/NAS



000
FXUS61 KALY 060018
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
718 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVERNIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE
OUR WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND. A FAST MOVING...CLIPPER...LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
LITTLE IMPACT ON THE LOCAL AREA. SOME SNOW IS POSSIBLE FOR MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL WEAKEN AS THE
LOW OFF NEW ENGLAND COAST MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM
THE AREA AND RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE. SKIES HAVE ALREADY
CLEARED AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.

SOME HIGH THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL STREAM IN OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER
WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO DROP TO NEAR SEASONABLY COLD READINGS...WITH LOWS
MAINLY IN THE TEENS.

BY LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...A WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW OFF
LAKE ONTARIO WILL PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL WEAKEN DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AND BE
SURPRESSED TO THE SOUTH AS FAST MOVING CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERN
STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THIS WILL CAUSE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS
DURING THE DAY AND WILL ALSO CAUSE ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
TO SHIFT NORTH OUT OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AS THE FLOW BECOMES
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.

HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO FRIDAY`S RANGING FROM THE UPPER
20S TO LOWER 40S WITH MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA IN 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY DRY OUTSIDE OF MORE UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. A CLIPPER SYSTEM RIDING TO THE
NORTH OF OUR REGION...WILL ENHANCE THE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS AND EVEN INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
20S.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION
TO WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY MIDDAY SUNDAY...AND THE HUDSON VALLEY
AND REMAINING AREAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SOME CLOUDS AND
SPRINKLES/FLURRIES COULD ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...AS THE FRONT WILL
HAVE EXTREMELY LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.

THERE WILL BE A WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO WEST AS THE DAY WEAR
ON...WITH WIND SPEEDS AGAIN AVERAGING AROUND 10 MPH WITH SOME
HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM 30-35 ACROSS THE ELEVATED
TERRAIN...35-40 THE UPPER HUDSON AND MOHAWK VALLEYS/40-45
ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD FROM EASTERN
CANADA TO PROVIDE A MAINLY DRY NIGHT WITH LOWS 20-25 ALBANY
SOUTHWARD...TEENS FURTHER NORTH. THE SKY WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY.

MONDAY WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH A STORM AS IT LOOKS TO TRACK WELL
OFFSHORE THE CAROLINAS. THE COMBINATION OF THE LOW AND
HIGH TO THE NORTH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE AN ONSHORE FLOW OF
INCREASING MOISTURE WITH PERHAPS SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
BREAKING UP MAINLY SOUTH OF I-90.

HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE NOTABLY COLDER THAN SUNDAY...30-35
VALLEYS... 35-30 HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A FAIRLY ACTIVE PERIOD IS EXPECTED DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH
A GREAT DEAL OF CLOUDINESS AND SOME SNOW EXPECTED DURING THE MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME.

ON MONDAY NIGHT A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES AS A SECONDARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE
DELMARVA PENINSULA. THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
THERE WILL ONLY BE MINOR IMPACTS FROM THESE SYSTEMS. BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING THE COASTAL LOW WILL BE UP IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AS THE
CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE FA FOLLOWED BY AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IN THE WAKE OF THE CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM
EXPECT SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SINCE THIS IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO BRING A
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO OUR REGION WE WILL BE REMOVING THE MENTION
OF SIGNIFICANT SNOW FROM OUR HWO. THE 12Z GEFS PLUME DIAGRAM FOR
ALBANY GENERALLY HAS A RANGE OF A TENTH TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH
FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A FEW MEMBERS SHOWING UP TO
FOUR TENTHS OF AN INCH OF QPF.

IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY COLDER DURING THE PERIOD WITH MUCH MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPS FOR FEBRUARY. HIGHS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN
THE MID TEENS TO UPPER 20S. LOWS ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S WITH LOWS ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO UPPER TEENS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...00Z SUNDAY.

THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL WEAKEN AS THE
LOW OFF NEW ENGLAND COAST MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM
THE AREA AND RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE. SKIES HAVE ALREADY
CLEARED AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TO CALM.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL WEAKEN DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AND BE
SURPRESSED TO THE SOUTH AS FAST MOVING CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERN
STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THIS WILL CAUSE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS
DURING THE DAY.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON SATURDAY AT 5 TO 10
KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE TEENS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AT KALB.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT-SUN NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
MON NIGHT-WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO CONCERNS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS AS ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT OR IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

THE THIRD WINTER SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE SEASON WAS ISSUED
ON FEBRUARY 4TH.

HIGHLIGHTS...REFER TO THE PRODUCTS FOR DETAILS (ALBESFALY):

DUE TO BELOW NORMAL SNOW COVER AND RIVER ICE...POTENTIAL FOR
SNOWMELT AND ICE JAM FLOODING IS LOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

ALTHOUGH WATER SUPPLY LEVELS ARE NOT A CONCERN AT THE MOMENT...THERE
IS CURRENTLY VERY LITTLE SNOW WATER AVAILABLE FOR RESERVOIR RECHARGE
ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. IT WILL TAKE A STEADY SUPPLY OF RAIN AND
SNOW THROUGH SPRING INTO SUMMER FOR RESERVOIRS TO MAINTAIN ADEQUATE
LEVELS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/NAS



000
FXUS61 KALY 060018
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
718 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVERNIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE
OUR WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND. A FAST MOVING...CLIPPER...LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
LITTLE IMPACT ON THE LOCAL AREA. SOME SNOW IS POSSIBLE FOR MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL WEAKEN AS THE
LOW OFF NEW ENGLAND COAST MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM
THE AREA AND RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE. SKIES HAVE ALREADY
CLEARED AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.

SOME HIGH THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL STREAM IN OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER
WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO DROP TO NEAR SEASONABLY COLD READINGS...WITH LOWS
MAINLY IN THE TEENS.

BY LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...A WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW OFF
LAKE ONTARIO WILL PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL WEAKEN DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AND BE
SURPRESSED TO THE SOUTH AS FAST MOVING CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERN
STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THIS WILL CAUSE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS
DURING THE DAY AND WILL ALSO CAUSE ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
TO SHIFT NORTH OUT OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AS THE FLOW BECOMES
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.

HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO FRIDAY`S RANGING FROM THE UPPER
20S TO LOWER 40S WITH MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA IN 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY DRY OUTSIDE OF MORE UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. A CLIPPER SYSTEM RIDING TO THE
NORTH OF OUR REGION...WILL ENHANCE THE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS AND EVEN INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
20S.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION
TO WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY MIDDAY SUNDAY...AND THE HUDSON VALLEY
AND REMAINING AREAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SOME CLOUDS AND
SPRINKLES/FLURRIES COULD ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...AS THE FRONT WILL
HAVE EXTREMELY LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.

THERE WILL BE A WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO WEST AS THE DAY WEAR
ON...WITH WIND SPEEDS AGAIN AVERAGING AROUND 10 MPH WITH SOME
HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM 30-35 ACROSS THE ELEVATED
TERRAIN...35-40 THE UPPER HUDSON AND MOHAWK VALLEYS/40-45
ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD FROM EASTERN
CANADA TO PROVIDE A MAINLY DRY NIGHT WITH LOWS 20-25 ALBANY
SOUTHWARD...TEENS FURTHER NORTH. THE SKY WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY.

MONDAY WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH A STORM AS IT LOOKS TO TRACK WELL
OFFSHORE THE CAROLINAS. THE COMBINATION OF THE LOW AND
HIGH TO THE NORTH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE AN ONSHORE FLOW OF
INCREASING MOISTURE WITH PERHAPS SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
BREAKING UP MAINLY SOUTH OF I-90.

HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE NOTABLY COLDER THAN SUNDAY...30-35
VALLEYS... 35-30 HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A FAIRLY ACTIVE PERIOD IS EXPECTED DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH
A GREAT DEAL OF CLOUDINESS AND SOME SNOW EXPECTED DURING THE MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME.

ON MONDAY NIGHT A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES AS A SECONDARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE
DELMARVA PENINSULA. THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
THERE WILL ONLY BE MINOR IMPACTS FROM THESE SYSTEMS. BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING THE COASTAL LOW WILL BE UP IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AS THE
CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE FA FOLLOWED BY AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IN THE WAKE OF THE CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM
EXPECT SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SINCE THIS IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO BRING A
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO OUR REGION WE WILL BE REMOVING THE MENTION
OF SIGNIFICANT SNOW FROM OUR HWO. THE 12Z GEFS PLUME DIAGRAM FOR
ALBANY GENERALLY HAS A RANGE OF A TENTH TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH
FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A FEW MEMBERS SHOWING UP TO
FOUR TENTHS OF AN INCH OF QPF.

IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY COLDER DURING THE PERIOD WITH MUCH MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPS FOR FEBRUARY. HIGHS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN
THE MID TEENS TO UPPER 20S. LOWS ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S WITH LOWS ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO UPPER TEENS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...00Z SUNDAY.

THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL WEAKEN AS THE
LOW OFF NEW ENGLAND COAST MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM
THE AREA AND RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE. SKIES HAVE ALREADY
CLEARED AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TO CALM.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL WEAKEN DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AND BE
SURPRESSED TO THE SOUTH AS FAST MOVING CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERN
STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THIS WILL CAUSE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS
DURING THE DAY.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON SATURDAY AT 5 TO 10
KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE TEENS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AT KALB.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT-SUN NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
MON NIGHT-WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO CONCERNS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS AS ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT OR IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

THE THIRD WINTER SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE SEASON WAS ISSUED
ON FEBRUARY 4TH.

HIGHLIGHTS...REFER TO THE PRODUCTS FOR DETAILS (ALBESFALY):

DUE TO BELOW NORMAL SNOW COVER AND RIVER ICE...POTENTIAL FOR
SNOWMELT AND ICE JAM FLOODING IS LOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

ALTHOUGH WATER SUPPLY LEVELS ARE NOT A CONCERN AT THE MOMENT...THERE
IS CURRENTLY VERY LITTLE SNOW WATER AVAILABLE FOR RESERVOIR RECHARGE
ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. IT WILL TAKE A STEADY SUPPLY OF RAIN AND
SNOW THROUGH SPRING INTO SUMMER FOR RESERVOIRS TO MAINTAIN ADEQUATE
LEVELS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/NAS



000
FXUS61 KALY 060018
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
718 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVERNIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE
OUR WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND. A FAST MOVING...CLIPPER...LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
LITTLE IMPACT ON THE LOCAL AREA. SOME SNOW IS POSSIBLE FOR MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL WEAKEN AS THE
LOW OFF NEW ENGLAND COAST MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM
THE AREA AND RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE. SKIES HAVE ALREADY
CLEARED AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.

SOME HIGH THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL STREAM IN OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER
WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO DROP TO NEAR SEASONABLY COLD READINGS...WITH LOWS
MAINLY IN THE TEENS.

BY LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...A WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW OFF
LAKE ONTARIO WILL PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL WEAKEN DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AND BE
SURPRESSED TO THE SOUTH AS FAST MOVING CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERN
STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THIS WILL CAUSE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS
DURING THE DAY AND WILL ALSO CAUSE ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
TO SHIFT NORTH OUT OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AS THE FLOW BECOMES
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.

HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO FRIDAY`S RANGING FROM THE UPPER
20S TO LOWER 40S WITH MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA IN 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY DRY OUTSIDE OF MORE UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. A CLIPPER SYSTEM RIDING TO THE
NORTH OF OUR REGION...WILL ENHANCE THE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS AND EVEN INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
20S.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION
TO WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY MIDDAY SUNDAY...AND THE HUDSON VALLEY
AND REMAINING AREAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SOME CLOUDS AND
SPRINKLES/FLURRIES COULD ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...AS THE FRONT WILL
HAVE EXTREMELY LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.

THERE WILL BE A WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO WEST AS THE DAY WEAR
ON...WITH WIND SPEEDS AGAIN AVERAGING AROUND 10 MPH WITH SOME
HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM 30-35 ACROSS THE ELEVATED
TERRAIN...35-40 THE UPPER HUDSON AND MOHAWK VALLEYS/40-45
ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD FROM EASTERN
CANADA TO PROVIDE A MAINLY DRY NIGHT WITH LOWS 20-25 ALBANY
SOUTHWARD...TEENS FURTHER NORTH. THE SKY WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY.

MONDAY WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH A STORM AS IT LOOKS TO TRACK WELL
OFFSHORE THE CAROLINAS. THE COMBINATION OF THE LOW AND
HIGH TO THE NORTH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE AN ONSHORE FLOW OF
INCREASING MOISTURE WITH PERHAPS SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
BREAKING UP MAINLY SOUTH OF I-90.

HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE NOTABLY COLDER THAN SUNDAY...30-35
VALLEYS... 35-30 HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A FAIRLY ACTIVE PERIOD IS EXPECTED DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH
A GREAT DEAL OF CLOUDINESS AND SOME SNOW EXPECTED DURING THE MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME.

ON MONDAY NIGHT A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES AS A SECONDARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE
DELMARVA PENINSULA. THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
THERE WILL ONLY BE MINOR IMPACTS FROM THESE SYSTEMS. BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING THE COASTAL LOW WILL BE UP IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AS THE
CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE FA FOLLOWED BY AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IN THE WAKE OF THE CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM
EXPECT SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SINCE THIS IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO BRING A
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO OUR REGION WE WILL BE REMOVING THE MENTION
OF SIGNIFICANT SNOW FROM OUR HWO. THE 12Z GEFS PLUME DIAGRAM FOR
ALBANY GENERALLY HAS A RANGE OF A TENTH TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH
FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A FEW MEMBERS SHOWING UP TO
FOUR TENTHS OF AN INCH OF QPF.

IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY COLDER DURING THE PERIOD WITH MUCH MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPS FOR FEBRUARY. HIGHS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN
THE MID TEENS TO UPPER 20S. LOWS ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S WITH LOWS ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO UPPER TEENS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...00Z SUNDAY.

THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL WEAKEN AS THE
LOW OFF NEW ENGLAND COAST MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM
THE AREA AND RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE. SKIES HAVE ALREADY
CLEARED AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TO CALM.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL WEAKEN DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AND BE
SURPRESSED TO THE SOUTH AS FAST MOVING CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERN
STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THIS WILL CAUSE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS
DURING THE DAY.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON SATURDAY AT 5 TO 10
KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE TEENS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AT KALB.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT-SUN NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
MON NIGHT-WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO CONCERNS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS AS ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT OR IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

THE THIRD WINTER SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE SEASON WAS ISSUED
ON FEBRUARY 4TH.

HIGHLIGHTS...REFER TO THE PRODUCTS FOR DETAILS (ALBESFALY):

DUE TO BELOW NORMAL SNOW COVER AND RIVER ICE...POTENTIAL FOR
SNOWMELT AND ICE JAM FLOODING IS LOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

ALTHOUGH WATER SUPPLY LEVELS ARE NOT A CONCERN AT THE MOMENT...THERE
IS CURRENTLY VERY LITTLE SNOW WATER AVAILABLE FOR RESERVOIR RECHARGE
ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. IT WILL TAKE A STEADY SUPPLY OF RAIN AND
SNOW THROUGH SPRING INTO SUMMER FOR RESERVOIRS TO MAINTAIN ADEQUATE
LEVELS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/NAS




000
FXUS61 KBOX 060010
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
710 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY WEATHER THIS WEEKEND WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY. A PERIOD OR TWO OF ACCUMULATING SNOW IS
LIKELY MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN MA...BUT ITS
UNCERTAIN IF THIS WILL MAINLY BE A NUISANCE EVENT OR A SIGNIFICANT
WINTER STORM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...

7 PM UPDATE...

ALL WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES HAVE BEEN DROPPED.  THE LAST OF THE
LIGHT SNOW WILL COME TO AN END BY 8 PM ACROSS THE OUTER-CAPE AND
NANTUCKET. OTHERWISE...SKIES HAVE BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE
REST OF THE REGION AND THIS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE CAPE/ISLANDS OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE REGION AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT WEAKENS.  FRESH SNOW COVER AND DIMINISHING WIND WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW GUIDANCE NUMBERS IN THE OUTLYING
LOCATIONS.  LOWS WILL RANGE FROM BETWEEN 10 AND 15 ACROSS THE
OUTLYING LOCATIONS...TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S IN THE URBAN HEAT
ISLANDS OF DOWNTOWN BOSTON/PROVIDENCE.

A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT CONTINUES THIS EVENING...AS FALLING
TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW ANY STANDING WATER/SLUSH TO FREEZE SOLID.
MOTORISTS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR BLACK ICE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
NOSE OF HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER FROM THE W. THE COMBINATION OF COLD
ADVECTION ALOFT AND SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW-MID LVL MOISTURE
SUGGESTS SOME AFTERNOON CLOUD DEVELOPMENT...BUT LITTLE ELSE.
DROPPED HIGHS A LITTLE BIT FROM CURRENT FORECASTS AS THE ADDED
SNOWPACK WILL LIKELY KEEP 2M TEMPS A BIT LOWER THAN SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE IS CURRENTLY SUGGESTING. EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY WITH RELATIVELY MILD TEMPS SUN
* PERIOD OR TWO OF ACCUMULATING SNOW LIKELY MON-WED ESPECIALLY COAST
* UNCERTAIN IF MON-WED IS NUISANCE SNOW OR SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM

DETAILS...

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...

WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER.  LOW TEMPS
SAT NIGHT MAINLY IN THE 20S...BUT SOME UPPER TEENS POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE NORMALLY COLDER OUTLYING LOCATIONS.  PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON
SUNDAY AND WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD ALLOW MUCH OF THE REGION TO SEE
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 40S.

LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

EXTREMELY COMPLEX AND DIFFICULT FORECAST OVER THIS TIME PERIOD.  A
COUPLE OF POTENT SHORTWAVES WILL CARVE OUT A DEEP EAST COAST TROUGH.
THERE IS SO MUCH ENERGY IN THE FLOW THAT THE MODELS ARE GOING TO
HAVE A TOUGH TIME ON RESOLVING WHAT EXACTLY UNFOLDS.

FIRST THING IS FIRST...AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE WILL EMERGE OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AND RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST. CURRENT
INDICATIONS TAKE THE STORM SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK.  NOW OF
COURSE THAT IS 72+ HOURS OUT...SO A TRACK CLOSER TO THE COAST IS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE AND WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.  HOWEVER...EVEN IF
THE STORM PASSES WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK...MAY STILL END UP
WITH A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW EVENT ESPECIALLY ON THE COAST.  THIS
STORM LOOKS TO HAVE A FAIRLY BROAD CIRCULATION WITH 35 TO 50 KNOTS
OF ENE FLOW AT 850 MB...SO ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY FOR AT LEAST
THE COASTAL PLAIN.  ALSO...SOME LAND/SEA INTERFACE AND OCEAN
ENHANCEMENT MAY OCCUR IN EASTERN MA.

A SECOND POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL DROP DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
WILL ALLOW LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND
TRACK NORTHEAST TUE INTO EARLY WED.  A LOT OF WHAT HAPPENS WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE AFFECTED BY THE STRENGTH/TRACK OF THE FIRST SYSTEM ON
MONDAY.  THERE ARE A WIDE RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES...FROM A GLANCING
BLOW...TO A STRONG NOREASTER AND EVEN AN INVERTED TROUGH SETUP.

TO SUM UP...THE MAIN IDEA IS THAT WE ARE LIKELY TO RECEIVE AT LEAST
SOME SNOW AT TIMES MONDAY INTO WED.  WHETHER OR NOT WE SEE A
SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM REMAINS TO BE SEEN...BUT AS MENTIONED IN
THE PREVIOUS PARAGRAPHS ALL OPTIONS ARE ON THE TABLE.  WE ARE LIKELY
TO SEE AT LEAST SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...

LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY OVER THIS TIME FRAME.  WILL HAVE TO WATCH A WAVE
OR TWO OF LOW PRESSURE THAT MAY END UP BRINGING A BIT MORE
SNOW...BUT MUCH OF THIS PERIOD MAY END UP DRY.  GIVEN LOW
CONFIDENCE...WILL KEEP POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LINGERING SNOW EXITS THE
OUTER-CAPE/NANTUCKET BY 01Z WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING IN THOSE
LOCATIONS TO VFR BY 02Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT.  ANY
UNTREATED AND WET RUNWAYS WILL FREEZE AS TEMPERATURES DROP. WIND
GUSTS REMAIN N-NW BUT DIMINISH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

TOMORROW...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR. WINDS SHIFT TO THE SW...BUT
SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 10 KT OR LESS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...TIMING MAY BE OFF A
BIT.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS....TIMING MAY BE OFF A
BIT.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE ESPECIALLY ON TIMING.
PERIOD OR TWO OF SNOW LIKELY IN THIS TIME FRAME...SO WILL PROBABLY
SEE SOME IFR CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST ON MON. NORTHEAST
WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS LIKELY ON MONDAY ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING
HOURS SUCH THAT MOST GALE WARNINGS CAN BE DROPPED BY ABOUT
MIDNIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL HAVE TO FOLLOW...BECAUSE
EVEN THOUGH WINDS WILL DROP BELOW THRESHOLDS...HIGH SEAS OF 10-12
FT HAVE DEVELOPED AND WILL LINGER WELL INTO THE DAY TOMORROW.
SO...EXPECT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...MAINLY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS TO
FOLLOW.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LEFT OVER 5 FOOT SWELL
MAY LINGER INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS OUR EASTERN OUTER-
WATERS.  OTHERWISE...WINDS/SEAS WILL BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS WITH A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  GALE FORCE NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS
LIKELY AS A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIKELY TRACKS
SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK.  THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY FOR A PERIOD
OF STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS IF THAT SYSTEM TRACKS CLOSER TO THE COAST
THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED. SEAS LIKELY BUILD TO AT LEAST 15 FEET
ACROSS OUR EASTERN OUTER-WATERS WITH LONG NORTHEAST FETCH AND GOOD
MIXING.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.  AT THE VERY LEAST NORTHEAST
SMALL CRAFT WIND GUSTS AND HIGH SEAS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUE EVENING.
HOWEVER...POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER WIND GUSTS DEPENDING ON STRENGTH
AND LOCATION OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.  BY WEDNESDAY WIND
GUSTS AND SEAS ARE QUITE UNCERTAIN...DEPENDING ON WHAT HAPPENS WITH
THAT SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
MONDAY...

THERE IS A FAIRLY HIGH ASTRO TIDE OF 11.2 IN BOSTON LATE MONDAY
MORNING.  NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS FROM LARGE
CIRCULATION OF THE INTENSIFYING OCEAN STORM WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A
1 TO 1.5 SURGE.  SEAS SHOULD BE BUILT UP TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 FEET
BY THEN...SO FEEL THERE IS A DECENT SHOT FOR POCKETS OF MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING ALONG EASTERN MA COAST.  THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR
POCKETS OF MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING...IF THE STORMS ENDS UP A BIT
FASTER AND TRACKING FURTHER WEST THAN CURRENT GUIDANCE INDICATES.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...

MAIN CONCERN IS IF WE END UP WITH A SECOND AREA OF STRONG LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING UP THE COAST...WHICH COULD IMPACT ADDITIONAL HIGH
TIDE CYCLES. LARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE ON WHETHER OR NOT THIS
HAPPENS.  IF SO...WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE TUESDAY NOON HIGH TIDE
CYCLE ACROSS EASTERN MA AS BOSTON HAS AN 11.5 ASTRO TIDE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     MAZ019>021.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MAZ022-
     023.
RI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR RIZ007.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR RIZ008.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231>234-250-
     254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DOODY/FRANK
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...FRANK/DOODY
MARINE...FRANK/DOODY
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...FRANK




000
FXUS61 KBOX 060010
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
710 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY WEATHER THIS WEEKEND WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY. A PERIOD OR TWO OF ACCUMULATING SNOW IS
LIKELY MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN MA...BUT ITS
UNCERTAIN IF THIS WILL MAINLY BE A NUISANCE EVENT OR A SIGNIFICANT
WINTER STORM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...

7 PM UPDATE...

ALL WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES HAVE BEEN DROPPED.  THE LAST OF THE
LIGHT SNOW WILL COME TO AN END BY 8 PM ACROSS THE OUTER-CAPE AND
NANTUCKET. OTHERWISE...SKIES HAVE BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE
REST OF THE REGION AND THIS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE CAPE/ISLANDS OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE REGION AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT WEAKENS.  FRESH SNOW COVER AND DIMINISHING WIND WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW GUIDANCE NUMBERS IN THE OUTLYING
LOCATIONS.  LOWS WILL RANGE FROM BETWEEN 10 AND 15 ACROSS THE
OUTLYING LOCATIONS...TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S IN THE URBAN HEAT
ISLANDS OF DOWNTOWN BOSTON/PROVIDENCE.

A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT CONTINUES THIS EVENING...AS FALLING
TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW ANY STANDING WATER/SLUSH TO FREEZE SOLID.
MOTORISTS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR BLACK ICE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
NOSE OF HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER FROM THE W. THE COMBINATION OF COLD
ADVECTION ALOFT AND SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW-MID LVL MOISTURE
SUGGESTS SOME AFTERNOON CLOUD DEVELOPMENT...BUT LITTLE ELSE.
DROPPED HIGHS A LITTLE BIT FROM CURRENT FORECASTS AS THE ADDED
SNOWPACK WILL LIKELY KEEP 2M TEMPS A BIT LOWER THAN SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE IS CURRENTLY SUGGESTING. EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY WITH RELATIVELY MILD TEMPS SUN
* PERIOD OR TWO OF ACCUMULATING SNOW LIKELY MON-WED ESPECIALLY COAST
* UNCERTAIN IF MON-WED IS NUISANCE SNOW OR SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM

DETAILS...

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...

WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER.  LOW TEMPS
SAT NIGHT MAINLY IN THE 20S...BUT SOME UPPER TEENS POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE NORMALLY COLDER OUTLYING LOCATIONS.  PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON
SUNDAY AND WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD ALLOW MUCH OF THE REGION TO SEE
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 40S.

LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

EXTREMELY COMPLEX AND DIFFICULT FORECAST OVER THIS TIME PERIOD.  A
COUPLE OF POTENT SHORTWAVES WILL CARVE OUT A DEEP EAST COAST TROUGH.
THERE IS SO MUCH ENERGY IN THE FLOW THAT THE MODELS ARE GOING TO
HAVE A TOUGH TIME ON RESOLVING WHAT EXACTLY UNFOLDS.

FIRST THING IS FIRST...AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE WILL EMERGE OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AND RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST. CURRENT
INDICATIONS TAKE THE STORM SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK.  NOW OF
COURSE THAT IS 72+ HOURS OUT...SO A TRACK CLOSER TO THE COAST IS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE AND WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.  HOWEVER...EVEN IF
THE STORM PASSES WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK...MAY STILL END UP
WITH A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW EVENT ESPECIALLY ON THE COAST.  THIS
STORM LOOKS TO HAVE A FAIRLY BROAD CIRCULATION WITH 35 TO 50 KNOTS
OF ENE FLOW AT 850 MB...SO ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY FOR AT LEAST
THE COASTAL PLAIN.  ALSO...SOME LAND/SEA INTERFACE AND OCEAN
ENHANCEMENT MAY OCCUR IN EASTERN MA.

A SECOND POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL DROP DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
WILL ALLOW LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND
TRACK NORTHEAST TUE INTO EARLY WED.  A LOT OF WHAT HAPPENS WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE AFFECTED BY THE STRENGTH/TRACK OF THE FIRST SYSTEM ON
MONDAY.  THERE ARE A WIDE RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES...FROM A GLANCING
BLOW...TO A STRONG NOREASTER AND EVEN AN INVERTED TROUGH SETUP.

TO SUM UP...THE MAIN IDEA IS THAT WE ARE LIKELY TO RECEIVE AT LEAST
SOME SNOW AT TIMES MONDAY INTO WED.  WHETHER OR NOT WE SEE A
SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM REMAINS TO BE SEEN...BUT AS MENTIONED IN
THE PREVIOUS PARAGRAPHS ALL OPTIONS ARE ON THE TABLE.  WE ARE LIKELY
TO SEE AT LEAST SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...

LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY OVER THIS TIME FRAME.  WILL HAVE TO WATCH A WAVE
OR TWO OF LOW PRESSURE THAT MAY END UP BRINGING A BIT MORE
SNOW...BUT MUCH OF THIS PERIOD MAY END UP DRY.  GIVEN LOW
CONFIDENCE...WILL KEEP POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LINGERING SNOW EXITS THE
OUTER-CAPE/NANTUCKET BY 01Z WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING IN THOSE
LOCATIONS TO VFR BY 02Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT.  ANY
UNTREATED AND WET RUNWAYS WILL FREEZE AS TEMPERATURES DROP. WIND
GUSTS REMAIN N-NW BUT DIMINISH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

TOMORROW...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR. WINDS SHIFT TO THE SW...BUT
SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 10 KT OR LESS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...TIMING MAY BE OFF A
BIT.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS....TIMING MAY BE OFF A
BIT.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE ESPECIALLY ON TIMING.
PERIOD OR TWO OF SNOW LIKELY IN THIS TIME FRAME...SO WILL PROBABLY
SEE SOME IFR CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST ON MON. NORTHEAST
WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS LIKELY ON MONDAY ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING
HOURS SUCH THAT MOST GALE WARNINGS CAN BE DROPPED BY ABOUT
MIDNIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL HAVE TO FOLLOW...BECAUSE
EVEN THOUGH WINDS WILL DROP BELOW THRESHOLDS...HIGH SEAS OF 10-12
FT HAVE DEVELOPED AND WILL LINGER WELL INTO THE DAY TOMORROW.
SO...EXPECT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...MAINLY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS TO
FOLLOW.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LEFT OVER 5 FOOT SWELL
MAY LINGER INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS OUR EASTERN OUTER-
WATERS.  OTHERWISE...WINDS/SEAS WILL BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS WITH A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  GALE FORCE NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS
LIKELY AS A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIKELY TRACKS
SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK.  THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY FOR A PERIOD
OF STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS IF THAT SYSTEM TRACKS CLOSER TO THE COAST
THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED. SEAS LIKELY BUILD TO AT LEAST 15 FEET
ACROSS OUR EASTERN OUTER-WATERS WITH LONG NORTHEAST FETCH AND GOOD
MIXING.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.  AT THE VERY LEAST NORTHEAST
SMALL CRAFT WIND GUSTS AND HIGH SEAS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUE EVENING.
HOWEVER...POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER WIND GUSTS DEPENDING ON STRENGTH
AND LOCATION OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.  BY WEDNESDAY WIND
GUSTS AND SEAS ARE QUITE UNCERTAIN...DEPENDING ON WHAT HAPPENS WITH
THAT SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
MONDAY...

THERE IS A FAIRLY HIGH ASTRO TIDE OF 11.2 IN BOSTON LATE MONDAY
MORNING.  NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS FROM LARGE
CIRCULATION OF THE INTENSIFYING OCEAN STORM WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A
1 TO 1.5 SURGE.  SEAS SHOULD BE BUILT UP TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 FEET
BY THEN...SO FEEL THERE IS A DECENT SHOT FOR POCKETS OF MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING ALONG EASTERN MA COAST.  THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR
POCKETS OF MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING...IF THE STORMS ENDS UP A BIT
FASTER AND TRACKING FURTHER WEST THAN CURRENT GUIDANCE INDICATES.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...

MAIN CONCERN IS IF WE END UP WITH A SECOND AREA OF STRONG LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING UP THE COAST...WHICH COULD IMPACT ADDITIONAL HIGH
TIDE CYCLES. LARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE ON WHETHER OR NOT THIS
HAPPENS.  IF SO...WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE TUESDAY NOON HIGH TIDE
CYCLE ACROSS EASTERN MA AS BOSTON HAS AN 11.5 ASTRO TIDE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     MAZ019>021.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MAZ022-
     023.
RI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR RIZ007.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR RIZ008.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231>234-250-
     254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DOODY/FRANK
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...FRANK/DOODY
MARINE...FRANK/DOODY
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...FRANK




000
FXUS61 KBOX 052103
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
403 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE CENTER OFFSHORE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION
ALLOWING WINDS AND SNOWS TO END THIS EVENING EVERYWHERE. COLDER
WEATHER FOLLOWS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY
WEATHER THIS WEEKEND WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY. A
PERIOD OR TWO OF ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN MA...BUT ITS UNCERTAIN IF THIS WILL
MAINLY BE A NUISANCE EVENT OR A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM.


&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...

*** WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES DROP THIS EVENING ***
*** COLD AIR WILL ALLOW UNTREATED SURFACES TO FREEZE OVERNIGHT ***

BEST F-GEN BAND AROUND H6 COINCIDENT WITH HEAVY BANDED SNOW NOW
ORIENTED OVER CAPE/ISLANDS. ACK WAS THE FINAL PIN TO FALL INTO ALL
SNOW OVER THE LAST HOUR. THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO DROP ABOUT 2-3
INCH/HOUR SNOWFALL RATES ALONG WITH AREAS TO THE W STILL
RECEIVING AROUND AN INCH/HOUR. NOTING A STRONGER WESTERLY
COMPONENT TO THE FLOW THANKS TO STRONGER ISALLOBARIC WINDS WITH
THE LOW PRES MAKING ITS CLOSEST PASS TO THE E. THIS IS ALLOWING
FOR MORE DRY AIR TO WEDGE INTO THE LOWER LVLS. ITS ALL ENDED FOR
AREAS WEST OF WORCESTER AND TOLLAND COUNTIES.

THE SNOWS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFFSHORE AND END FROM W-E OVER THE
NEXT 3-4 HOURS...POSSIBLY ABOUT 6 HOURS FOR ACK. THIS SUGGESTS AN
ADDITIONAL 1-4 INCHES OF LOCALIZED SNOWFALL LEFT FOR THOSE STILL
RECEIVING SNOW. THE DRY AIR IS ASSOCIATED WITH VERY LOW SFC DWPTS
IN THE TEENS...WHICH WILL HELP ALLOWING TEMPS TO COOL WITH RAPIDLY
CLEARING SKIES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE EVENING. WILL ALLOW
THE CURRENT WARNINGS/ADVISORIES TO CONTINUE. INCLUDING THE WIND
ADVISORY FOR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS WITH VERY STRONG PRES CHANGE
COUPLET NOTED ON MSAS/LAPS THROUGH THE EVENING JUST OFFSHORE. THIS
WILL GRADUALLY END THIS EVENING THOUGH...WITH WINDS DYING OFF AT
THE SFC.

SO...COMBINING THE CLEARING SKIES...ENDING SNOWS AND WEAKENING
PRES GRADIENT...GOOD SETUP FOR RAPID COOLING OVERNIGHT THANKS TO
DWPTS FALLING INTO THE LOW TEENS. SO A VERY COLD NIGHT AHEAD
BEHIND THIS STORM. GIVEN THE VERY WET NATURE OF THE SNOWFALL AND
CLEANUP EFFORTS TODAY...UNTREATED SFCS WILL LIKELY BECOME VERY
SLIPPERY OVERNIGHT WHERE THE LEFTOVER BREEZES ARE UNABLE TO DRY.
PATCHY BLACK ICE POSSIBLE. WILL BE ISSUING AN SPS FOR THIS RISK
FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXPECT MINS MAINLY IN THE TEENS AND LOW
20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
NOSE OF HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER FROM THE W. THE COMBINATION OF COLD
ADVECTION ALOFT AND SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW-MID LVL MOISTURE
SUGGESTS SOME AFTERNOON CLOUD DEVELOPMENT...BUT LITTLE ELSE.
DROPPED HIGHS A LITTLE BIT FROM CURRENT FORECASTS AS THE ADDED
SNOWPACK WILL LIKELY KEEP 2M TEMPS A BIT LOWER THAN SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE IS CURRENTLY SUGGESTING. EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY WITH RELATIVELY MILD TEMPS SUN
* PERIOD OR TWO OF ACCUMULATING SNOW LIKELY MON-WED ESPECIALLY COAST
* UNCERTAIN IF MON-WED IS NUISANCE SNOW OR SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM

DETAILS...

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...

WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER.  LOW TEMPS
SAT NIGHT MAINLY IN THE 20S...BUT SOME UPPER TEENS POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE NORMALLY COLDER OUTLYING LOCATIONS.  PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON
SUNDAY AND WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD ALLOW MUCH OF THE REGION TO SEE
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 40S.

LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

EXTREMELY COMPLEX AND DIFFICULT FORECAST OVER THIS TIME PERIOD.  A
COUPLE OF POTENT SHORTWAVES WILL CARVE OUT A DEEP EAST COAST TROUGH.
THERE IS SO MUCH ENERGY IN THE FLOW THAT THE MODELS ARE GOING TO
HAVE A TOUGH TIME ON RESOLVING WHAT EXACTLY UNFOLDS.

FIRST THING IS FIRST...AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE WILL EMERGE OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AND RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST. CURRENT
INDICATIONS TAKE THE STORM SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK.  NOW OF
COURSE THAT IS 72+ HOURS OUT...SO A TRACK CLOSER TO THE COAST IS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE AND WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.  HOWEVER...EVEN IF
THE STORM PASSES WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK...MAY STILL END UP
WITH A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW EVENT ESPECIALLY ON THE COAST.  THIS
STORM LOOKS TO HAVE A FAIRLY BROAD CIRCULATION WITH 35 TO 50 KNOTS
OF ENE FLOW AT 850 MB...SO ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY FOR AT LEAST
THE COASTAL PLAIN.  ALSO...SOME LAND/SEA INTERFACE AND OCEAN
ENHANCEMENT MAY OCCUR IN EASTERN MA.

A SECOND POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL DROP DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
WILL ALLOW LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND
TRACK NORTHEAST TUE INTO EARLY WED.  A LOT OF WHAT HAPPENS WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE AFFECTED BY THE STRENGTH/TRACK OF THE FIRST SYSTEM ON
MONDAY.  THERE ARE A WIDE RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES...FROM A GLANCING
BLOW...TO A STRONG NOREASTER AND EVEN AN INVERTED TROUGH SETUP.

TO SUM UP...THE MAIN IDEA IS THAT WE ARE LIKELY TO RECEIVE AT LEAST
SOME SNOW AT TIMES MONDAY INTO WED.  WHETHER OR NOT WE SEE A
SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM REMAINS TO BE SEEN...BUT AS MENTIONED IN
THE PREVIOUS PARAGRAPHS ALL OPTIONS ARE ON THE TABLE.  WE ARE LIKELY
TO SEE AT LEAST SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...

LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY OVER THIS TIME FRAME.  WILL HAVE TO WATCH A WAVE
OR TWO OF LOW PRESSURE THAT MAY END UP BRINGING A BIT MORE
SNOW...BUT MUCH OF THIS PERIOD MAY END UP DRY.  GIVEN LOW
CONFIDENCE...WILL KEEP POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

THROUGH 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...TIMING MAY BE OFF A BIT.
AREAS OF LIFR/IFR IN HEAVY SNOW AND LOW CIGS CONTINUE THROUGH
ABOUT 20Z EVERYWHERE...THEN GIVE WAY TO VFR FROM W-E THROUGH 00Z.
STRONG N WINDS WITH GUSTS 20-30 KT OVER THE INTERIOR AND 30-40 KT
ALONG THE CAPE/ISLAND.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. ANY UNTREATED AND WET RUNWAYS WILL FREEZE AS
TEMPERATURES DROP RAPIDLY. WIND GUSTS REMAIN N-NW BUT DIMINISH
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

TOMORROW...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. WINDS SHIFT TO THE SW...BUT SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 10 KT
OR LESS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...TIMING MAY BE OFF A
BIT.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS....TIMING MAY BE OFF A
BIT.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE ESPECIALLY ON TIMING.
PERIOD OR TWO OF SNOW LIKELY IN THIS TIME FRAME...SO WILL PROBABLY
SEE SOME IFR CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST ON MON. NORTHEAST
WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS LIKELY ON MONDAY ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING
HOURS SUCH THAT MOST GALE WARNINGS CAN BE DROPPED BY ABOUT
MIDNIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL HAVE TO FOLLOW...BECAUSE
EVEN THOUGH WINDS WILL DROP BELOW THRESHOLDS...HIGH SEAS OF 10-12
FT HAVE DEVELOPED AND WILL LINGER WELL INTO THE DAY TOMORROW.
SO...EXPECT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...MAINLY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS TO
FOLLOW.

AREAS OF SNOW/RAIN/FOG REDUCING VSBYS WILL COME TO AN END BETWEEN
6PM AND 10PM LOCAL.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LEFT OVER 5 FOOT SWELL
MAY LINGER INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS OUR EASTERN OUTER-
WATERS.  OTHERWISE...WINDS/SEAS WILL BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS WITH A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  GALE FORCE NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS
LIKELY AS A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIKELY TRACKS
SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK.  THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY FOR A PERIOD
OF STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS IF THAT SYSTEM TRACKS CLOSER TO THE COAST
THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED. SEAS LIKELY BUILD TO AT LEAST 15 FEET
ACROSS OUR EASTERN OUTER-WATERS WITH LONG NORTHEAST FETCH AND GOOD
MIXING.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.  AT THE VERY LEAST NORTHEAST
SMALL CRAFT WIND GUSTS AND HIGH SEAS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUE EVENING.
HOWEVER...POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER WIND GUSTS DEPENDING ON STRENGTH
AND LOCATION OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.  BY WEDNESDAY WIND
GUSTS AND SEAS ARE QUITE UNCERTAIN...DEPENDING ON WHAT HAPPENS WITH
THAT SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
MONDAY...

THERE IS A FAIRLY HIGH ASTRO TIDE OF 11.2 IN BOSTON LATE MONDAY
MORNING.  NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS FROM LARGE
CIRCULATION OF THE INTENSIFYING OCEAN STORM WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A
1 TO 1.5 SURGE.  SEAS SHOULD BE BUILT UP TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 FEET
BY THEN...SO FEEL THERE IS A DECENT SHOT FOR POCKETS OF MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING ALONG EASTERN MA COAST.  THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR
POCKETS OF MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING...IF THE STORMS ENDS UP A BIT
FASTER AND TRACKING FURTHER WEST THAN CURRENT GUIDANCE INDICATES.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...

MAIN CONCERN IS IF WE END UP WITH A SECOND AREA OF STRONG LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING UP THE COAST...WHICH COULD IMPACT ADDITIONAL HIGH
TIDE CYCLES. LARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE ON WHETHER OR NOT THIS
HAPPENS.  IF SO...WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE TUESDAY NOON HIGH TIDE
CYCLE ACROSS EASTERN MA AS BOSTON HAS AN 11.5 ASTRO TIDE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CTZ003-
     004.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MAZ022-
     023.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     MAZ019>021.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MAZ004>007-012>018-026.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MAZ022>024.
RI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR RIZ008.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR RIZ007.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     RIZ001>006.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231>234-250-
     254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ230.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ236.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...FRANK/DOODY
MARINE...FRANK/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KOKX 052058
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
358 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

LOW PRESSURE PASSES TRACKS TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
TONIGHT...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND
REMAINS INTO THIS WEEKEND. DEEP LOW PRES WILL TRACK OVER THE ATLC
LATE SUN NGT INTO MON. AN ACTIVE WINTER PATTERN WILL THEN SET UP
OVER THE AREA THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...

A GENERAL 6 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW...WITH A FEW LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS...HAS FALLEN ACROSS LI AND CT. HIGHEST AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN
ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF BOTH REGIONS. THE HEAVY WET
SNOW...COMBINED WITH NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS INTO
THE 30S...WILL CONTINUE A DANGEROUS THREAT FOR DOWNED TREE LIMBS AND
POWER LINES INTO THIS EVENING.

OTHERWISE...VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND COASTAL LOW PRESSURE MOVES
TOWARDS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TONIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE EVENING. POTENTIAL FOR GOOD
RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT ACROSS INTERIOR AND PINE
BARRENS...COUPLE WITH FRESH SNOWPACK...ALLOWING TEMPS TO FALL WELL
DOWN INTO THE TEENS. ELSEWHERE LOWS IN THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH A DEVELOPING SPLIT UPPER FLOW. A
NORTHERN STREAM CUTOFF LOW WILL TRACK FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO INTO
CENTRAL QUEBEC SAT INTO SAT NIGHT...WITH RESULTANT CLIPPER SYSTEM
TAKING A SIMILAR TRACK. MEANWHILE A CUTOFF LOW SEPARATES INTO THE
SOUTHERN US SAT INTO SAT NIGHT FROM THE BASE OF AN APPROACHING
CENTRAL US TROUGH...WITH RESULTANT LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE
GULF COAST.

FOR THE TRI-STATE...TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE CENTRAL US SAT MORNING...AND THEN SINKS
SE OF THE REGION FOR SAT AFT INTO SAT NIGHT.

HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S SATURDAY...BASED ON A
SLIGHT REDUCTION OF GUIDANCE BLEND DUE TO NEW SNOWPACK. POTENTIAL
FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS ACROSS INTERIOR ONCE AGAIN SAT
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THIS MAY BE TEMPERED BY HIGH CLOUDS AND SW WINDS
NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

LOW PRES WILL BEGIN TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OFF THE SERN CONUS ON SUN.
A WEAK RIDGE OF HI PRES OVER THE CWA DURING THIS TIME SO FAIR WX
WITH TEMPS AROUND AVG. THE LOW THEN TRACKS NEWD OVER THE
ATLC...REACHING A POINT ABOUT 350 MILES E OF THE BENCHMARK MON AFTN.
THE MODELS ARE IN REMARKABLE AGREEMENT WRT TO THE POSITION OF THE
LOW...WITH THE 12Z GEFS/GEM/GFS/ECMWF SOLNS VIRTUALLY STACKED ON TOP
OF EACH OTHER. THERE ARE SOME INTENSITY DIFFERENCES...BUT NOT MUCH.
AT 18Z MON...THE ECMWF GETS DOWN TO 971...THE GEM 975 AND THE GFS
977. THE GFS AND GEM HAVE TRENDED WWD. THE ECMWF IS RELATIVELY
UNCHANGED. BASED ON MODEL PROGS FOR THIS STORM EARLY THIS
WEEK...MODEL PERFORMANCE THIS YEAR AND CURRENT TRENDS...EXPECTING
THE STORM TO END UP TRACKING W OF THE CURRENT PROGS. AS A
RESULT...FCST DATA IS AUGMENTED ABV THE SUPERBLEND FOR WINDS AND
POPS. AT LEAST MINOR TIDAL FLOODING POSSIBLE WITH A NEW MOON ON MON.
WILL START A MENTION IN THE HWO FOR THE SYS. ALTHOUGH THE CURRENT
MODEL DATA SUGGESTS ONLY A GLANCING BLOW AT BEST...ALL INTERESTS
SHOULD PAY ATTENTION TO THIS STORM AS A MID 970S LOW TRACKING UP THE
COAST WOULD HAVE SERIOUS IMPACTS. ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO THE H5
LOW DROPPING INTO THE NERN CONUS TUE-THU. THE PATTERN SUPPORTS THE
DEVELOPMENT OF 2 WEAK LOWS TUE AND WED S OF THE REGION...PROVIDING
CHCS FOR SNOW. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY...WITH THE ULTIMATE
LATITUDE OF THE SYS DICTATING SNOW CHCS AND AMTS. IN ADDITION...IF
THE PATTERN EASES UP AT ALL AND THE LOWS DEVELOP FURTHER NWD...SOME
RAIN IN THE MIX PARTICULARLY CSTL AREAS.  ARCTIC AIR STILL LOOKS
POISED FOR THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF USHERS IT IN WITH A CLIPPER FRI
WHICH WOULD BRING MORE SNOW CHCS. IN SUMMARY...THERE ARE CHCS FOR
PCPN IN EVERY PERIOD OF THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TONIGHT.

SNOW WILL COME TO AN END ACROSS KGON SHORTLY...WITH CONDS IMPROVING
TO VFR SHORTLY AFTER SNOW ENDS.

GUSTY NW WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING...PRIMARILY RIGHT OF 310
MAGNETIC. GUSTS 25-30KT THRU EARLY EVENING...DIMINISHING LATE.

   NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY END AN HOUR OR SO EARLIER THAN
FORECAST THIS EVE.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY END AN HOUR OR SO EARLIER THAN
FORECAST THIS EVE.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY END AN HOUR OR SO EARLIER THAN
FORECAST THIS EVE.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY END AN HOUR OR SO EARLIER THAN
FORECAST THIS EVE.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY END AN HOUR OR SO EARLIER THAN
FORECAST THIS EVE.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY END AN HOUR OR SO EARLIER THAN
FORECAST THIS EVE.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SATURDAY-SUNDAY...VFR.
.MONDAY...CHC SUB-VFR AND SNOW...ESPECIALLY EAST OF CITY. CHC NE
GUSTS AROUND 25KT.
.TUESDAY...SUB-VFR WITH SNOW LIKELY...POSSIBLY MIXED PTYPE DURING
THE AFTN AT THE COAST...TAPERING OFF LATE IN THE DAY.
.WEDNESDAY...CHC SUB-VFR WITH -SHSN. NW GUST AROUND 25KT.

&&

.MARINE...

LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TOWARDS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TONIGHT. MINIMAL
GALE FORCE WINDS GUSTS ON THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN OCEAN WATERS AND
SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WATERS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING FROM W TO E THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS TOWARDS INTO THE WATERS. THE

SCA SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL BE A BIT SLOWER TO SUBSIDE DUE TO
SOUTHERLY SWELLS...BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW SCA TOWARDS SATURDAY
MORNING. THEREAFTER...SUB SCA CONDS EXPECTED ON ALL WATERS INT
SAT NIGHT...ALTHOUGH WINDS GUSTS UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE ON OCEAN
WATERS LATE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT.

WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS ON SUN...THEN DEEP LOW PRES WILL TRACK E
OF THE WATERS SUN NGT AND MON. THIS WILL PRODUCE AT LEAST SCA
COND...WITH GALES POSSIBLE. IF THE STORM TRACKS CLOSE
ENOUGH...STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SCA COND ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST ON
THE OCEAN RIGHT THRU THU. ELSEWHERE...PERIODS OF SCA LVL WINDS
POSSIBLE WITH NW FLOW DEVELOPING...ESPECIALLY WED AND THU.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

WIDESPREAD PCPN IS POSSIBLE LATE SUN NGT THRU MON...AND AGAIN DURING
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE PCPN THAT FALLS
LIKELY TO BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW ATTM.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-
     335-338-340-345.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-353.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/NV
NEAR TERM...NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JMC/NV
HYDROLOGY...JMC/NV




000
FXUS61 KALY 052011
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
310 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WORKING INTO THE GULF OF MAINE WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE FURTHER NORTH AND EAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT
AND TAKE CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE WEEKEND. A CLIPPER
MOVING NORTH OF OUR REGION...WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY WITH LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. IT WILL TURN A BIT COLDER
MONDAY WITH SOME SNOW POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

AS OF 300 PM EST...SNOW WAS PRETTY OUT OF OUR REGION ALTHOUGH
THERE WAS A PLUME OF CLOUDS OFF LAKE CHAMPLAIN THAT COULD BE
CAUSING SOME ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES INTO WASHINGTON
COUNTY. THIS PLUME SHOULD DIMINISH TOWARD EVENING AS THE WIND
TURNS A BIT MORE NORTHWESTERLY.

OTHERWISE MOST OF THE AREA WAS NOW ENJOYING A PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKY. TEMPERATURES HAVE REACHED AROUND 40 FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD
WHILE IT WAS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S MOST OF THE ELEVATED TERRAIN
AND AREAS WELL NORTH OF ALBANY.

THESE VALUES ARE AS HIGH AS TEMPERATURES GO THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.

THE WIND WAS NORTH OR NORTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
25 MPH. THESE GUSTS WILL BEGIN TO ABATE AFTER DARK.

TONIGHT LOOKS CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND COLDER THAN LAST NIGHT.
THE WIND WILL DIMINISH TO NEAR CALM OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING IN MOST PLACES ALLOWING TEMPERATURES
TO FALL THROUGH THE 20S...AND NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY...INTO THE
TEENS.

BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY...A WSW FLOW OFF LAKE ONTARIO COULD PRODUCE
SOME CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH WILL SUPPLY MOST OF THE REGION WITH
A DRY DAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE ONLY EXCEPTION
WILL BE SOME ON GOING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS
DUE TO UPSLOPE AND LAKE ENHANCEMENT OFF ONTARIO.

OTHERWISE IT WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY WITH VARYING AMOUNTS OF HIGH
CLOUDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 40 IN THE VALLEYS...
LOWER TO MID 30S MUCH OF THE ELEVATED TERRAIN...EXCEPT
CLOSER TO 30 ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

A LIGHT WIND WILL BECOME SOUTH AROUND 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY DRY OUTSIDE OF MORE UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. A CLIPPER SYSTEM RIDING TO THE NORTH
OF OUR REGION...WILL ENHANCE THE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS
AND EVEN INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION
TO WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY MIDDAY SUNDAY...AND THE HUDSON VALLEY
AND REMAINING AREAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SOME CLOUDS AND
SPRINKLES/FLURRIES COULD ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...AS THE FRONT WILL
HAVE EXTREMELY LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.

THERE WILL BE A WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO WEST AS THE DAY WEAR
ON...WITH WIND SPEEDS AGAIN AVERAGING AROUND 10 MPH WITH SOME
HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM 30-35 ACROSS THE ELEVATED
TERRAIN...35-40 THE UPPER HUDSON AND MOHAWK VALLEYS/40-45
ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD FROM EASTERN
CANADA TO PROVIDE A MAINLY DRY NIGHT WITH LOWS 20-25 ALBANY
SOUTHWARD...TEENS FURTHER NORTH. THE SKY WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY.

MONDAY WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH A STORM AS IT LOOKS TO TRACK WELL
OFFSHORE THE CAROLINAS. THE COMBINATION OF THE LOW AND
HIGH TO THE NORTH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE AN ONSHORE FLOW OF
INCREASING MOISTURE WITH PERHAPS SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
BREAKING UP MAINLY SOUTH OF I-90.

HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE NOTEABLY COLDER THAN SUNDAY...30-35 VALLEYS...
35-30 HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A FAIRLY ACTIVE PERIOD IS EXPECTED DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH
A GREAT DEAL OF CLOUDINESS AND SOME SNOW EXPECTED DURING THE MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME.

ON MONDAY NIGHT A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES AS A SECONDARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE
DELMARVA PENINSULA. THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
THERE WILL ONLY BE MINOR IMPACTS FROM THESE SYSTEMS. BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING THE COASTAL LOW WILL BE UP IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AS THE
CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE FA FOLLOWED BY AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IN THE WAKE OF THE CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM
EXPECT SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SINCE THIS IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO BRING A
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO OUR REGION WE WILL BE REMOVING THE MENTION
OF SIGNIFICANT SNOW FROM OUR HWO. THE 12Z GEFS PLUME DIAGRAM FOR
ALBANY GENERALLY HAS A RANGE OF A TENTH TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH
FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A FEW MEMBERS SHOWING UP TO
FOUR TENTHS OF AN INCH OF QPF.

IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY COLDER DURING THE PERIOD WITH MUCH MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPS FOR FEBRUARY. HIGHS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN
THE MID TEENS TO UPPER 20S. LOWS ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S WITH LOWS ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO UPPER TEENS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE ENDING AT 18Z SATURDAY.

VFR MID AND HIGH LEVEL CIGS WILL PERSIST AWHILE...ESPECIALLY
AT KPSF AND KPOU...BUT EVENING...THESE SHOULD
BECOME SCATTERED AS WELL. THERE WILL BE FEW-SCT MID
LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...WITH HIGH CLOUDS
INCREASING LATER IN THE DAY.

A NORTHWESTERLY WIND AROUND 10KTS WILL GUST TO 20KTS AT TIMES.
THE WIND WILL DIMINISH AFTER 00Z...DOWN TO UNDER 5KTS. THE SURFACE
WIND WILL THEN BECOME SOUTH 5-10KTS ON SATURDAY AFTER 12Z.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO CONCERNS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS AS ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT OR IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

THE THIRD WINTER SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE SEASON HAS BEEN
ISSUED.

HIGHLIGHTS...REFER TO THE PRODUCTS FOR DETAILS (ALBESFALY):

DUE TO BELOW NORMAL SNOW COVER AND RIVER ICE...POTENTIAL FOR
SNOWMELT AND ICE JAM FLOODING IS LOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

ALTHOUGH WATER SUPPLY LEVELS ARE NOT A CONCERN AT THE MOMENT...THERE
IS CURRENTLY VERY LITTLE SNOW WATER AVAILABLE FOR RESERVOIR RECHARGE
ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. IT WILL TAKE A STEADY SUPPLY OF RAIN AND
SNOW THROUGH SPRING INTO SUMMER FOR RESERVOIRS TO MAINTAIN ADEQUATE
LEVELS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/NAS




000
FXUS61 KOKX 051814
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
114 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND
REMAINS OVER THE REGION SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE GIVES WAY TO
PASSING OFFSHORE LOW MONDAY...AND ANOTHER LOW THAT TRACKS CLOSER
TO THE AREA TUESDAY. LINGERING TROUGH IMPACTS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A GENERAL 6 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW...WITH A FEW LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS...HAS FALLEN ACROSS LI AND CT. HIGHEST AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN
ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF BOTH REGIONS. THE HEAVY WET SNOW...COMBINED
WITH MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS INTO THE
30S...WILL CONTINUE A THREAT FOR DOWNED TREE LIMBS AND POWER
LINES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THIS AREA.

SNOWFALL AMOUNTS RANGE FROM 2 TO 6 INCHES FOR NYC METRO...LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY AND NE NJ...WITH LITTLE SNOW ACROSS FAR WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUD VALLEY.

OTHERWISE...WINTER STORM WINDING DOWN QUICKLY AS LOW
PRESSURE...JUST SOUTHEAST OF 40/70 LAT/LON...CONTINUES TO TRACK TO
THE NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW HAS COME
TO AND END FOR WESTERN LI AND CT...AND WILL END THROUGH 3 PM FOR
EASTERN LI AND SE CT...WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES LIKELY
BEFORE COMING TO AND END.

EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN IN THE LOWER AND MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN TONIGHT WITH THE UPPER FLOW NEARLY
ZONAL AS A PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM DOMINATES. DURING SATURDAY
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT AND IS SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AFTER A COOL DOWN TODAY TEMPERATURES MODERATE
AS WEAK WARM ADVECTION SETS UP TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SPLIT FLOW ALOFT AS SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY...AND NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
TRACKS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. FAST ON IT/S HEELS IS NEXT SHORTWAVE
THAT WILL TRACK TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE THIS
WEEKEND...AMPLIFYING AS IT DOES SO. THIS ELONGATED TROUGH SLOWLY
MOVES EAST...WITH REINFORCING ENERGY DIVING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA
AND EVENTUALLY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH BY MID WEEK.

AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE AREA GIVES WAY TO
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SE COAST. THIS LOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH
SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH. THIS LOW TRACKS WELL TO THE SE OF THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK BY MONDAY. UPSTREAM LOW MOVES OUT OF THE UPPER MID
WEST TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY...EVENTUALLY STRENGTHENING OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST/DELMARVA VCNTY BY TUESDAY. NORLUN TROUGH EXTENDS
NW...WITH WEAK TROUGH LINGERING ACROSS THE NE INTO WED.

AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...DRY INITIALLY WITH A POSSIBLE GLANCING
BLOW OF LIGHT SNOW MONDAY WITH PASSING OFFSHORE LOW. THEN LIGHT SNOW
MAY DEVELOP NEARBY AHEAD OF TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WITH POSSIBLE
HIGHEST COVERAGE TUESDAY AS THE SFC LOW PASSES CLOSEST TO THE AREA.
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT AND WED WITH SFC
TROUGH/UPPER TROUGH/CYCLONIC FLOW IN VICINITY.

TOO EARLY FOR ANY SNOW ACCUMS...WITH BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
ACCUMULATING SNOW MON NIGHT AND TUE. MODEL DETAILS DO DIFFER ON QPF
AMOUNTS. COULD BE SOME PTYPE ISSUES DURING THE DAYTIME AS WELL.

OVERALL MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPS FOLLOWED FAIRLY CLOSELY...WHICH WAS IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT FROM PREV FCST ANYWAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND TODAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE TONIGHT.

SNOW HAS ENDED OVER THE CITY TERMINALS AND POINTS WEST. SNOW WILL
COME TO AN END OVER THE EASTERN TERMINALS BY LATE AFTN.

VFR WHERE SNOW HAS ENDED. WHERE SNOW CONTINUES...IFR TO MVFR CONDS
IMPROVING TO VFR SHORTLY AFTER SNOW ENDS.

NW WINDS THIS AFTN...PRIMARILY NORTH OF 310 MAGNETIC. GUSTS 25-30KT
THRU AT LEAST MID-AFTN...DIMINISHING LATE.

   NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY END AN HOUR OR TWO EARLIER THAN
FORECAST THIS EVE.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY END AN HOUR OR TWO EARLIER
THAN FORECAST THIS EVE.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS MIGHT BE FORECAST TO
BE A COUPLE OF KTS TOO STRONG THIS AFTN. GUSTS MAY END AN HOUR OR
TWO EARLIER THAN FORECAST THIS EVE.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MIGHT BE ONLY OCCASIONAL...AND IF
FREQUENT...MAY END AN HOUR OR TWO EARLIER THAN FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY END AN HOUR OR TWO EARLIER
THAN FORECAST THIS EVE.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AFTER 18Z
EXPECTED TO BE UNDER AN INCH. GUSTS MAY END A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN
FORECAST THIS EVE.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SATURDAY-SUNDAY...VFR.
.MONDAY...CHC SUB-VFR AND SNOW...ESPECIALLY EAST OF CITY. CHC NE
GUSTS AROUND 25KT.
.TUESDAY...SUB-VFR WITH SNOW LIKELY...POSSIBLY MIXED PTYPE DURING
THE AFTN AT THE COAST...TAPERING OFF LATE IN THE DAY.
.WEDNESDAY...CHC SUB-VFR WITH -SHSN. NW GUST AROUND 25KT.

&&

.MARINE...

MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS GUSTS ON THE OCEAN WATERS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
WATERS. WITH LOW PRESSURE PASSING QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST THIS
EVENING AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEAKENS AND WIND SUBSIDE. THERE MAY BE SOME SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ON
THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS INTO THIS EVENING...AND MAYBE THE FAR
EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND AND BAYS...OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE BELOW
SMALL CRAFT TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HOWEVER...SMALL CRAFT SEAS
REMAIN ON THE OCEAN INTO TONIGHT.

SW WINDS SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL SHIFT TO THE N...THEN NE
AS HIGH PRESSURE GIVES WAY TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE THAT IS
EXPECTED TO PASS WELL SE OF THE WATERS MONDAY.

ANOTHER LOW PASSES CLOSER TO THE WATERS TUESDAY. AS SUCH...EXPECT
INCREASING WINDS BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ALONG WITH BUILDING SEAS BY
THAT TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SNOWFALL WILL WIND DOWN THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...WITH AN
ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN LI AND FAR SE CT
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED.

WIDESPREAD MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY THRU
TUESDAY. MOST OF THAT COULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW WITH NO
HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS. OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     CTZ006>008-010>012.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NYZ078>081.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-
     335-338-340-345.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NV
NEAR TERM...NV
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...NV




000
FXUS61 KOKX 051814
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
114 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND
REMAINS OVER THE REGION SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE GIVES WAY TO
PASSING OFFSHORE LOW MONDAY...AND ANOTHER LOW THAT TRACKS CLOSER
TO THE AREA TUESDAY. LINGERING TROUGH IMPACTS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A GENERAL 6 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW...WITH A FEW LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS...HAS FALLEN ACROSS LI AND CT. HIGHEST AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN
ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF BOTH REGIONS. THE HEAVY WET SNOW...COMBINED
WITH MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS INTO THE
30S...WILL CONTINUE A THREAT FOR DOWNED TREE LIMBS AND POWER
LINES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THIS AREA.

SNOWFALL AMOUNTS RANGE FROM 2 TO 6 INCHES FOR NYC METRO...LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY AND NE NJ...WITH LITTLE SNOW ACROSS FAR WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUD VALLEY.

OTHERWISE...WINTER STORM WINDING DOWN QUICKLY AS LOW
PRESSURE...JUST SOUTHEAST OF 40/70 LAT/LON...CONTINUES TO TRACK TO
THE NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW HAS COME
TO AND END FOR WESTERN LI AND CT...AND WILL END THROUGH 3 PM FOR
EASTERN LI AND SE CT...WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES LIKELY
BEFORE COMING TO AND END.

EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN IN THE LOWER AND MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN TONIGHT WITH THE UPPER FLOW NEARLY
ZONAL AS A PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM DOMINATES. DURING SATURDAY
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT AND IS SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AFTER A COOL DOWN TODAY TEMPERATURES MODERATE
AS WEAK WARM ADVECTION SETS UP TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SPLIT FLOW ALOFT AS SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY...AND NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
TRACKS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. FAST ON IT/S HEELS IS NEXT SHORTWAVE
THAT WILL TRACK TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE THIS
WEEKEND...AMPLIFYING AS IT DOES SO. THIS ELONGATED TROUGH SLOWLY
MOVES EAST...WITH REINFORCING ENERGY DIVING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA
AND EVENTUALLY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH BY MID WEEK.

AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE AREA GIVES WAY TO
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SE COAST. THIS LOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH
SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH. THIS LOW TRACKS WELL TO THE SE OF THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK BY MONDAY. UPSTREAM LOW MOVES OUT OF THE UPPER MID
WEST TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY...EVENTUALLY STRENGTHENING OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST/DELMARVA VCNTY BY TUESDAY. NORLUN TROUGH EXTENDS
NW...WITH WEAK TROUGH LINGERING ACROSS THE NE INTO WED.

AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...DRY INITIALLY WITH A POSSIBLE GLANCING
BLOW OF LIGHT SNOW MONDAY WITH PASSING OFFSHORE LOW. THEN LIGHT SNOW
MAY DEVELOP NEARBY AHEAD OF TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WITH POSSIBLE
HIGHEST COVERAGE TUESDAY AS THE SFC LOW PASSES CLOSEST TO THE AREA.
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT AND WED WITH SFC
TROUGH/UPPER TROUGH/CYCLONIC FLOW IN VICINITY.

TOO EARLY FOR ANY SNOW ACCUMS...WITH BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
ACCUMULATING SNOW MON NIGHT AND TUE. MODEL DETAILS DO DIFFER ON QPF
AMOUNTS. COULD BE SOME PTYPE ISSUES DURING THE DAYTIME AS WELL.

OVERALL MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPS FOLLOWED FAIRLY CLOSELY...WHICH WAS IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT FROM PREV FCST ANYWAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND TODAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE TONIGHT.

SNOW HAS ENDED OVER THE CITY TERMINALS AND POINTS WEST. SNOW WILL
COME TO AN END OVER THE EASTERN TERMINALS BY LATE AFTN.

VFR WHERE SNOW HAS ENDED. WHERE SNOW CONTINUES...IFR TO MVFR CONDS
IMPROVING TO VFR SHORTLY AFTER SNOW ENDS.

NW WINDS THIS AFTN...PRIMARILY NORTH OF 310 MAGNETIC. GUSTS 25-30KT
THRU AT LEAST MID-AFTN...DIMINISHING LATE.

   NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY END AN HOUR OR TWO EARLIER THAN
FORECAST THIS EVE.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY END AN HOUR OR TWO EARLIER
THAN FORECAST THIS EVE.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS MIGHT BE FORECAST TO
BE A COUPLE OF KTS TOO STRONG THIS AFTN. GUSTS MAY END AN HOUR OR
TWO EARLIER THAN FORECAST THIS EVE.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MIGHT BE ONLY OCCASIONAL...AND IF
FREQUENT...MAY END AN HOUR OR TWO EARLIER THAN FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY END AN HOUR OR TWO EARLIER
THAN FORECAST THIS EVE.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AFTER 18Z
EXPECTED TO BE UNDER AN INCH. GUSTS MAY END A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN
FORECAST THIS EVE.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SATURDAY-SUNDAY...VFR.
.MONDAY...CHC SUB-VFR AND SNOW...ESPECIALLY EAST OF CITY. CHC NE
GUSTS AROUND 25KT.
.TUESDAY...SUB-VFR WITH SNOW LIKELY...POSSIBLY MIXED PTYPE DURING
THE AFTN AT THE COAST...TAPERING OFF LATE IN THE DAY.
.WEDNESDAY...CHC SUB-VFR WITH -SHSN. NW GUST AROUND 25KT.

&&

.MARINE...

MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS GUSTS ON THE OCEAN WATERS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
WATERS. WITH LOW PRESSURE PASSING QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST THIS
EVENING AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEAKENS AND WIND SUBSIDE. THERE MAY BE SOME SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ON
THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS INTO THIS EVENING...AND MAYBE THE FAR
EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND AND BAYS...OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE BELOW
SMALL CRAFT TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HOWEVER...SMALL CRAFT SEAS
REMAIN ON THE OCEAN INTO TONIGHT.

SW WINDS SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL SHIFT TO THE N...THEN NE
AS HIGH PRESSURE GIVES WAY TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE THAT IS
EXPECTED TO PASS WELL SE OF THE WATERS MONDAY.

ANOTHER LOW PASSES CLOSER TO THE WATERS TUESDAY. AS SUCH...EXPECT
INCREASING WINDS BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ALONG WITH BUILDING SEAS BY
THAT TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SNOWFALL WILL WIND DOWN THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...WITH AN
ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN LI AND FAR SE CT
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED.

WIDESPREAD MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY THRU
TUESDAY. MOST OF THAT COULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW WITH NO
HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS. OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     CTZ006>008-010>012.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NYZ078>081.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-
     335-338-340-345.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NV
NEAR TERM...NV
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...NV




000
FXUS61 KALY 051740
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1224 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD PASSING SOUTH OF CAPE COD THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING A
LIGHT TO POSSIBLY MODERATE SNOWFALL TO AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT THIS MORNING. HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BEGIN
TO BUILD IN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD DOMINATE OUR WEATHER
INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LITCHFIELD COUNTY
WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

AS OF 1245 PM EST...RADAR INDICATING THAT THE SHIELD OF
SNOW...ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF CAPE COD...WAS PULLING OUT OF OUR REGION. THIS LOW
WILL BE NEAR NOVA SCOTIA BY TONIGHT.

THE SNOW SHOULD BE GONE BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE
OR NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.
CLOUDS...HAVE BEEN SLOW TO CLEAR WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY...
BUT WERE SHOWING SIGNS OF BREAKING UP DUE TO AN
INCREASINGLY DOWNSLOPING NNW WIND.

INTERESTINGLY....THERE HAS BEEN AN INDICATION OF LAKE
ENHANCED CLOUDS OFF LAKE CHAMPLAIN...POSSIBLY
PRODUCING A FEW FLURRIES OR ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS. WE
DO NOT EXPECT ANY REAL ACCUMULATIONS FOR THESE WHICH
SHOULD END BY MID AFTERNOON.

AREAS OUTSIDE OF THIS AFOREMENTIONED SNOW AREAS...WILL REMAIN
DRY WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE...OR INCREASING SUNSHINE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

WE PRETTY MUCH LEFT HIGH TEMPERATURES ALONE. LOOK FOR THEM TO TOP
OUT AROUND 40 IN THE HUDSON VALLEY FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD...LOWER
TO MID 30S HIGHER TERRAIN AND WELL NORTH OF ALBANY.

A NORTH WIND WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AND A LITTLE GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
INTERVALS OF CLOUDS AND CLEARING AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
AND BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES STAY RELATIVELY STRONG.
SURFACE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BUT COULD STAY STEADY AND LIGHT LONG
ENOUGH TO PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO MUCH. LOWS IN THE
UPPER TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS TO LOWER 20S IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
AREAS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OF OUR REGION AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION
BEGINS. STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WELL
SOUTH OF OUR REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE SOME NORTHERN STREAM
ENERGY TRACKS NORTH OF THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM
UPPER ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY...WITH SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE IN
WESTERN AREAS SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY...PARTIALLY DUE ALSO TO
BOUNDARY LAYER WIND FLOW OFF THE GREAT LAKES BUT THERE SHOULD BE
SOME DECENT FRONTOGENESIS AND ASSOCIATED FORCING AS THE COLD
FRONT TRACKS THROUGH.

SO...INTERVALS OF CLOUDS AND SUN SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH
SURFACE FLOW FORM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST...BUT BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW FROM MAINLY THE WEST...COULD HELP ENHANCE SOME MIXING ACROSS
THE REGION. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. HIGH
SUNDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S...BUT AROUND 30 TO THE MID 30S IN
NORTHERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES COULD FALL SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN
THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE MORE
UNSETTLED...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL INITIALLY TRENDING TOWARDS
BELOW NORMAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING WHETHER OUR REGION WILL BE AFFECTED BY A POTENTIAL COASTAL
STORM EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE PERIOD STARTS OUT ON MONDAY WITH A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS. MODELS INDICATING A SPRAWLING UPPER LOW
WILL BE POSITIONED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST...WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST. AN EASTERLY LOW LEVEL
FETCH FROM THE ATLANTIC MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SOME SPOTTY
LIGHT SNOW...BUT GENERALLY DRY AIR IN PLACE SHOULD PRECLUDE MUCH IN
THE WAY OF MEASURABLE SNOW. WILL ONLY MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT
THIS TIME. WILL BE WATCHING A POWERFUL OCEAN STORM QUICKLY TRACKING
NORTHEAST WELL OFF THE COAST...BUT THIS SYSTEM SHOULD NOT HAVE ANY
IMPACT ON OUR REGION.

THE MORE INTERESTING PERIOD WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST AND POTENTIALLY STARTS TO
INTERACT WITH ENERGY MOVING NORTH ALONG THE COAST. A SECONDARY LOW
IS EXPECTED TO FORM SOMEWHERE SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WHERE AND HOW QUICKLY PHASING CAN OCCUR WILL
DETERMINE WHETHER THIS WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT STORM OR JUST LIGHT
SNOW FOR OUR AREA. LATEST MODEL TRENDS ARE TOWARDS THE LATTER
SCENARIO...SUPPORTED BY THE 00Z ECMWF/CMC. THERE ARE SOME GEFS
MEMBER THAT HAVE SIGNIFICANT SNOW...ALONG WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS
MAINLY SOUTH OF ALBANY...BUT THESE SEEM TO BE THE OUTLIERS AT THIS
TIME. LATER PHASING MAY BE PLAUSIBLE CONSIDERING THE LACK OF
BAROCLINICITY THAT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ALONG THE COAST IN WAKE OF
MONDAY/S OCEAN STORM. STILL A LOT OF TIME BEFORE THE EVENT DRAWS
NEAR WITH POTENTIAL FOR MORE FORECAST CHANGES. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE
TO MENTION CHANCE POPS DURING THIS TIME.

COLDER AIR STARTS TO WORK IN ON WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG AND
PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA. A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL POSITIONED ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES ACTUALLY
BECOMING BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE ENDING AT 18Z SATURDAY.

THE SNOW...ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE WELL TO THE EAST OF OUR
REGION...HAS MOVED TO THE EAST OF THE REGION AND WILL NOT IMPACT
THE TAFS ANYMORE THIS AFTERNOON.

VFR MID AND HIGH LEVEL CIGS WILL PERSIST AWHILE...ESPECIALLY
AT KPSF AND KPOU...BUT BY LATE IN THE DAY...THESE SHOULD
BECOME SCATTERED AS WELL.

A NORTH WIND 5-10KTS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY
AROUND 10KTS...WITH GUSTS TO 20KTS AT TIMES. THE WIND
WILL DIMINISH AFTER 00Z...DOWN TO UNDER 5KTS. THE SURFACE
WIND WILL THEN BECOME SOUTH 5-10KTS ON SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO CONCERNS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS AS ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT OR IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

THE THIRD WINTER SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE SEASON HAS BEEN
ISSUED.

HIGHLIGHTS...REFER TO THE PRODUCTS FOR DETAILS (ALBESFALY):

DUE TO BELOW NORMAL SNOW COVER AND RIVER ICE...POTENTIAL FOR
SNOWMELT AND ICE JAM FLOODING IS LOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

ALTHOUGH WATER SUPPLY LEVELS ARE NOT A CONCERN AT THE MOMENT...THERE
IS CURRENTLY VERY LITTLE SNOW WATER AVAILABLE FOR RESERVOIR RECHARGE
ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. IT WILL TAKE A STEADY SUPPLY OF RAIN AND
SNOW THROUGH SPRING INTO SUMMER FOR RESERVOIRS TO MAINTAIN ADEQUATE
LEVELS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/11/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...HWJIV/JPV
HYDROLOGY...NAS



000
FXUS61 KALY 051740
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1224 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD PASSING SOUTH OF CAPE COD THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING A
LIGHT TO POSSIBLY MODERATE SNOWFALL TO AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT THIS MORNING. HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BEGIN
TO BUILD IN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD DOMINATE OUR WEATHER
INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LITCHFIELD COUNTY
WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

AS OF 1245 PM EST...RADAR INDICATING THAT THE SHIELD OF
SNOW...ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF CAPE COD...WAS PULLING OUT OF OUR REGION. THIS LOW
WILL BE NEAR NOVA SCOTIA BY TONIGHT.

THE SNOW SHOULD BE GONE BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE
OR NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.
CLOUDS...HAVE BEEN SLOW TO CLEAR WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY...
BUT WERE SHOWING SIGNS OF BREAKING UP DUE TO AN
INCREASINGLY DOWNSLOPING NNW WIND.

INTERESTINGLY....THERE HAS BEEN AN INDICATION OF LAKE
ENHANCED CLOUDS OFF LAKE CHAMPLAIN...POSSIBLY
PRODUCING A FEW FLURRIES OR ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS. WE
DO NOT EXPECT ANY REAL ACCUMULATIONS FOR THESE WHICH
SHOULD END BY MID AFTERNOON.

AREAS OUTSIDE OF THIS AFOREMENTIONED SNOW AREAS...WILL REMAIN
DRY WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE...OR INCREASING SUNSHINE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

WE PRETTY MUCH LEFT HIGH TEMPERATURES ALONE. LOOK FOR THEM TO TOP
OUT AROUND 40 IN THE HUDSON VALLEY FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD...LOWER
TO MID 30S HIGHER TERRAIN AND WELL NORTH OF ALBANY.

A NORTH WIND WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AND A LITTLE GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
INTERVALS OF CLOUDS AND CLEARING AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
AND BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES STAY RELATIVELY STRONG.
SURFACE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BUT COULD STAY STEADY AND LIGHT LONG
ENOUGH TO PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO MUCH. LOWS IN THE
UPPER TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS TO LOWER 20S IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
AREAS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OF OUR REGION AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION
BEGINS. STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WELL
SOUTH OF OUR REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE SOME NORTHERN STREAM
ENERGY TRACKS NORTH OF THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM
UPPER ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY...WITH SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE IN
WESTERN AREAS SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY...PARTIALLY DUE ALSO TO
BOUNDARY LAYER WIND FLOW OFF THE GREAT LAKES BUT THERE SHOULD BE
SOME DECENT FRONTOGENESIS AND ASSOCIATED FORCING AS THE COLD
FRONT TRACKS THROUGH.

SO...INTERVALS OF CLOUDS AND SUN SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH
SURFACE FLOW FORM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST...BUT BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW FROM MAINLY THE WEST...COULD HELP ENHANCE SOME MIXING ACROSS
THE REGION. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. HIGH
SUNDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S...BUT AROUND 30 TO THE MID 30S IN
NORTHERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES COULD FALL SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN
THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE MORE
UNSETTLED...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL INITIALLY TRENDING TOWARDS
BELOW NORMAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING WHETHER OUR REGION WILL BE AFFECTED BY A POTENTIAL COASTAL
STORM EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE PERIOD STARTS OUT ON MONDAY WITH A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS. MODELS INDICATING A SPRAWLING UPPER LOW
WILL BE POSITIONED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST...WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST. AN EASTERLY LOW LEVEL
FETCH FROM THE ATLANTIC MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SOME SPOTTY
LIGHT SNOW...BUT GENERALLY DRY AIR IN PLACE SHOULD PRECLUDE MUCH IN
THE WAY OF MEASURABLE SNOW. WILL ONLY MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT
THIS TIME. WILL BE WATCHING A POWERFUL OCEAN STORM QUICKLY TRACKING
NORTHEAST WELL OFF THE COAST...BUT THIS SYSTEM SHOULD NOT HAVE ANY
IMPACT ON OUR REGION.

THE MORE INTERESTING PERIOD WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST AND POTENTIALLY STARTS TO
INTERACT WITH ENERGY MOVING NORTH ALONG THE COAST. A SECONDARY LOW
IS EXPECTED TO FORM SOMEWHERE SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WHERE AND HOW QUICKLY PHASING CAN OCCUR WILL
DETERMINE WHETHER THIS WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT STORM OR JUST LIGHT
SNOW FOR OUR AREA. LATEST MODEL TRENDS ARE TOWARDS THE LATTER
SCENARIO...SUPPORTED BY THE 00Z ECMWF/CMC. THERE ARE SOME GEFS
MEMBER THAT HAVE SIGNIFICANT SNOW...ALONG WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS
MAINLY SOUTH OF ALBANY...BUT THESE SEEM TO BE THE OUTLIERS AT THIS
TIME. LATER PHASING MAY BE PLAUSIBLE CONSIDERING THE LACK OF
BAROCLINICITY THAT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ALONG THE COAST IN WAKE OF
MONDAY/S OCEAN STORM. STILL A LOT OF TIME BEFORE THE EVENT DRAWS
NEAR WITH POTENTIAL FOR MORE FORECAST CHANGES. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE
TO MENTION CHANCE POPS DURING THIS TIME.

COLDER AIR STARTS TO WORK IN ON WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG AND
PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA. A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL POSITIONED ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES ACTUALLY
BECOMING BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE ENDING AT 18Z SATURDAY.

THE SNOW...ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE WELL TO THE EAST OF OUR
REGION...HAS MOVED TO THE EAST OF THE REGION AND WILL NOT IMPACT
THE TAFS ANYMORE THIS AFTERNOON.

VFR MID AND HIGH LEVEL CIGS WILL PERSIST AWHILE...ESPECIALLY
AT KPSF AND KPOU...BUT BY LATE IN THE DAY...THESE SHOULD
BECOME SCATTERED AS WELL.

A NORTH WIND 5-10KTS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY
AROUND 10KTS...WITH GUSTS TO 20KTS AT TIMES. THE WIND
WILL DIMINISH AFTER 00Z...DOWN TO UNDER 5KTS. THE SURFACE
WIND WILL THEN BECOME SOUTH 5-10KTS ON SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO CONCERNS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS AS ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT OR IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

THE THIRD WINTER SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE SEASON HAS BEEN
ISSUED.

HIGHLIGHTS...REFER TO THE PRODUCTS FOR DETAILS (ALBESFALY):

DUE TO BELOW NORMAL SNOW COVER AND RIVER ICE...POTENTIAL FOR
SNOWMELT AND ICE JAM FLOODING IS LOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

ALTHOUGH WATER SUPPLY LEVELS ARE NOT A CONCERN AT THE MOMENT...THERE
IS CURRENTLY VERY LITTLE SNOW WATER AVAILABLE FOR RESERVOIR RECHARGE
ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. IT WILL TAKE A STEADY SUPPLY OF RAIN AND
SNOW THROUGH SPRING INTO SUMMER FOR RESERVOIRS TO MAINTAIN ADEQUATE
LEVELS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/11/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...HWJIV/JPV
HYDROLOGY...NAS




000
FXUS61 KBOX 051731
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1231 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT STALLING OFFSHORE WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR LOW PRESSURE
TO TRAVEL ALONG AFTER SUNRISE. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL DELIVER A
MIX OF RAIN CHANGING TO HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BRINGS DRY WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH A WEAK
COLD FRONT SUNDAY MAY BRING A FEW CLOUDS. A COMPLEX COASTAL STORM
SHOULD AFFECT THE REGION LATER MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON/...
1 PM UPDATE...
CONTINUE TO REVISE SNOW MAP AS STRONG BANDING CONTINUES TO MOVE
ACROSS BOTH ERN MA AND WESTERN/CENTRAL MA AT THIS TIME. HAVE
REPORTS ALREADY EXCEEDING 8 INCHES IN SEVERAL SPOTS AS A RESULT OF
THESE BANDS. RATIOS USED LIKELY TOO LOW IS PART OF THE ISSUE AS
THE FEW REPORTS OF LIQUID EQUIVALENTS ARE ON TARGET WITH QPF.
OTHERWISE...TIMING STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR ENDING LATER TODAY/THIS
AFTERNOON.

HAVE ADDED ADVISORIES FOR CAPE/VINEYARD AND ALSO HOISTED WIND
ADVISORIES THERE AS WELL AS STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE AS THE LOW
PRES MAKES IT/S CLOSEST PASS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

*** WESTWARD TREND IN THE SYSTEM HAS ALLOWED FOR WARNINGS AND
  ADVISORIES TO BE EXPANDED ***

BUSY NIGHT AS WE CONTINUE TO EVALUATE THE LATEST DATA AND TRENDS FOR
THIS UPCOMING WINTER SYSTEM. PRECIP SHIELD CONTINUES TO MOVE
WESTWARD AS MID-LEVEL TROUGH STRENGTHENS. GULF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
POOL INTO THE REGION ALLOWING FOR PWATS TO BE CLOSE TO AN INCH.
BIGGEST TREND BETWEEN THE 12Z AND 00Z RUNS IS THAT THE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES ITS WESTWARD TREND.

HEAVY PRECIP SWATH OVER NJ AND EASTERN PA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHWARD AND IMPACT WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS. BECAUSE OF THIS
UPSTREAM TREND...HAVE EXPANDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO
INCLUDE ALL OF THE PIONEER VALLEY. ANY PRECIP THAT IS OR WILL FALL
WILL BE SNOW ACROSS THE EAST SLOPE OF THE BERKS AS MESONET SITES ARE
ALREADY REPORTING TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS TREND IS IN LINE WITH THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP
GUIDANCE.

ASIDE FROM THE EXPANSION...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO HEADLINES AT THIS
TIME. HAVE RECEIVED SEVERAL REPORTS OF EITHER SNOW...OR A WINTRY MIX
ACROSS CENTRAL MASS AND INTO CT. THIS IS ALSO IN LINE WITH THE
LATEST DUAL-POL DATA. HIGHER REFLECTIVITY ECHOES ARE STARTING TO
MOVE INTO WINDHAM COUNTY...WHICH WILL BE EITHER A MIX OR JUST SNOW
AS 925 MB TEMPS ARE ALREADY BELOW 32F PER SPC MESO DATA. ANTICIPATE
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS TO BE FAIRLY BUSY WITH RAIN/SNOW MIX
TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST AND SURFACE LOW NEARS.

P-TYPE AND CHANGE OVER TIMING...

MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPILL INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS COASTAL
LOW MOVES ALONG STALLED COLD FRONT. AS MENTIONED EARLIER THE PRECIP
SHIED HAS EXPANDED FARTHER WESTWARD THEN ORIGINALLY FORECAST...WHICH
IS THE LATEST TREND IN ALL OF THE GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE 06Z NAM.
CHANGE OVER HAS ALREADY STARTED TO OCCUR ACROSS SEVERAL LOCATIONS
AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. STILL
CONCERNED ABOUT THE MORNING COMMUTE FOR MANY AREAS WEST OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR WHERE HEAVY WET SNOW WILL BE FALLING. ANTICIPATE THE CHANGE
OVER TO MAKE IT TO SOUTHEASTERN MASS INCLUDING BOS AND PVD CLOSER TO
THE 6-8 AM HOUR. THE CAPE AND ISLANDS WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER AS CAA
WILL TAKE A BIT OF TIME TO REACH THEM. FEEL IT WILL BE CLOSER TO
10AM-NOON. ALTHOUGH SLEET MAY MIX IN DURING THE TRANSITION...BELIEVE
MANY LOCATIONS WILL SWITCH FROM RAIN TO STRAIGHT SNOW.

QPF AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...

HAVE ADJUSTED THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SOME OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.
GENERALLY BELIEVE THAT LOCATIONS WITHIN THE WARNING WILL GET AT
LEAST A SLOPPY 5-7 INCHES OF SNOW. HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL HILLS WITHIN
TOLLAND...WINDHAM...WORCESTER AND PROVIDENCE COUNTIES. MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT FOR QPF. THE BIGGEST ISSUE IS THE BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPS AND THERMAL PROFILES. BELIEVE WE HAVE A GOOD TREND GOING
AT THIS TIME. SOME AREAS IN QUESTION WHICH COULD BE UPGRADED WITHIN
THE WARNING IS SOUTHERN BRISTOL AND PLYMOUTH COUNTIES. HOWEVER THESE
LOCATIONS MAY BE STUCK IN THE MIX LONGER KEEPING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
LOW. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND UPGRADED THE EAST SLOPE OF THE BERK TO AN
ADV AS SNOW IS ALREADY STARTING TO FALL PER WEBCAMS. THE PIONEER AND
CONNECTICUT VALLEY MAY SEE LOWER AMOUNTS AS WELL THANKS TO
SHADOWING. SO EVEN THOUGH SNOW AMOUNTS ARE OUT...THERE STILL COULD
BE SOME CHANGES THANKS TO SOME MESOSCALE ISSUES.

IMPACTS...

DUE TO THE FACT THAT SNOW RATIOS WILL BE LOW WITH THIS STORM...AND
BANDING WITH 1+ INCH/HR RATES ARE POSSIBLE...HEAVY WET SNOW MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED POWER OUTAGES. THIS WILL BE EXACERBATED BY A LLJ AROUND
40 KT WITH THE POTENTIAL TO MIX DOWN SOME OF IT/S MOMENTUM.
THEREFORE...THE COMBINATION OF WIND GUSTS 30-40 MPH AND HEAVY WET
SNOW MAY INCREASE THE RISK.

THE OTHER PRIMARY IMPACT IS THAT THE CHANGE-OVER AND HEAVIEST
PRECIP/SNOW WILL BE OCCURRING DURING THE PEAK HOURS OF THE AM
COMMUTE...WITH LOCALIZED VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AND SLIPPERY
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /2 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE MORE DYNAMIC NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM IN RELATION TO PREVIOUS
PROGS SUGGEST A SLOWER END. ALTHOUGH THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BE
DRYING THE LOW LEVELS...SO THERE COULD BE A LITTLE BIT OF SNOW
LEFTOVER MID-LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN MA BEFORE THINGS END BY
EARLY EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO QUICKLY DROP OFF DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS MAY CAUSE ANY UNTREATED ROADS TO BE SLIPPERY
FOR THE EVENING COMMUTE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...

LONGWAVE SCALE CONTINUES TO SHOW BUILDING RIDGE IN THE WEST AND
DIGGING TROUGH IN THE EAST...POINTING TO WARM TREND WEST AND COOLING
EAST. SMALLER SCALE CONTINUES TO SHOW A THREE-RING CIRCUS OF
SHORTWAVES EITHER AFFECTING OR WITH POTENTIAL TO AFFECT OUR WEATHER
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.  THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE WITH TWO
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN UPPER TROUGH TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY
WHERE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE SHORTWAVES COULD OCCUR.

MODEL MASS FIELDS ARE SIMILAR THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS ALSO AGREE
ON TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS...ONE WELL OFFSHORE MONDAY AND A SECOND CLOSE
TO SHORE TUESDAY. BUT ALL SHOW DIFFERING SCENARIOS FOR HOW THESE
SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BEST CONFIDENCE IN
HANDLING THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEMS IS WITH THE GEFS /ENSEMBLES/

THE DAILIES...

TONIGHT-SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

COASTAL LOW MOVES OFF THROUGH NOVA SCOTIA AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE EASTERN USA.  EXPECT DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLY COLD
TEMPERATURES. CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WIND OVER FRESH SNOW COVER
MAY LEAD TO COOLER TEMPS TONIGHT THAN INDICATED BY GUIDANCE. WITH
DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS AND WINDS BECOMING LIGHT...WE BUMPED
GUIDANCE DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES.  ON SATURDAY WITH WINDS ALOFT
SHIFTING SOUTHWEST...THE MIXED LAYER SHOULD REACH AROUND 950 MB.
TEMPS AT THAT LEVEL WOULD SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S.

SUNDAY...MODERATE-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
CROSS THE NORTHEAST USA. THE GFS PUSHES THE FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE DAY WHILE THE ECMWF SEEMS TO LOSE THE FRONT
IN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. LIMITED MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS SUGGEST JUST
A FEW CLOUDS BUT NO PRECIP.  HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM QUEBEC
INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH COLDER AIR ARRIVING BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE LOWER
40S. THE COLDER AIR ARRIVING SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BRING MIN TEMPS
ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN ON SATURDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE...AS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED...GENERATES A
SURFACE LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST USA COAST. THIS COASTAL LOW THEN MOVES
NORTHEAST AND PASSES WELL OFFSHORE OF OUR AREA. NORMALLY THIS PATH
WOULD KEEP PCPN OFFSHORE. HOWEVER WITH THE HIGH TO THE NORTH WE
COULD DEVELOP SUFFICIENT MARINE FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MAINE TO BRING
CLOUDS AND PCPN MONDAY ESPECIALLY IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. TEMPERATURE
PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT MAINLY SNOW...BUT WITH POTENTIAL RAIN/SNOW
MIX NEAR THE COAST.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES ASHORE FROM THE PACIFIC TONIGHT AND CROSSES
TO THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS DIGS AN UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE MIDWEST AND LEADS TO COASTAL LOW PRESSURE FORMING ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THE LOW THEN MOVES UP
THE COAST TUESDAY AND PASSES OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND. EACH MODEL
HANDLES THIS COASTAL LOW DIFFERENTLY...SO CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE
SOLUTION IS LOW. CONFIDENCE SHOULD INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AS
THE SHORTWAVE MOVES FEET-DRY ON THE PACIFIC COAST.

BEST DYNAMICS UNDER THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE SUPPORTING UPPER JET
MOVES OFF TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT...SO BEST CHANCE
OF PCPN SHOULD BE ON TUESDAY THEN DIMINISH TO SHOWERS TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. PTYPE AGAIN FAVORS SNOW INLAND AND SNOW OR A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ALONG THE COAST.

UPPER TROUGH/COLD POOL FROM THE MIDWEST LINGERS OVER THE NORTHEAST
USA THROUGH THURSDAY MAINTAINING SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

THROUGH 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...TIMING MAY BE OFF A BIT.
AREAS OF LIFR/IFR IN HEAVY SNOW AND LOW CIGS CONTINUE THROUGH
ABOUT 20Z EVERYWHERE...THEN GIVE WAY TO VFR FROM W-E THROUGH 00Z.
STRONG N WINDS WITH GUSTS 20-30 KT OVER THE INTERIOR AND 30-40 KT
ALONG THE CAPE/ISLAND.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. ANY UNTREATED AND WET RUNWAYS WILL FREEZE AS
TEMPERATURES DROP RAPIDLY. WIND GUSTS REMAIN N-NW BUT DIMINISH
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

TOMORROW...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. WINDS SHIFT TO THE SW...BUT SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 10 KT
OR LESS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...TIMING MAY BE OFF A
BIT.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS....TIMING MAY BE OFF A
BIT.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW OR
RAIN/SNOW MIX. NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING 20-30 KNOTS ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY... NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS PICK UP THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH
GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 35 KT ALONG THE SOUTHERN WATERS...AND 35-45
KT ON THE EASTERN WATERS. GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY. SEAS BECOME HIGH...MAINLY 8-10 FT ON THE SE OCEAN
WATERS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A PERIOD OF RAIN/FOG ACROSS THE WATERS
WITH A POSSIBLE CHANGE TO SNOW NEAR THE EASTERN SHORELINES.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...

TONIGHT...DIMINISHING NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 30 KNOTS EARLY AND
POPPING UNDER 25 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS AS HIGH AS 14 FEET ON
THE OUTER WATERS WILL SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT TO 5-7 FEET BY MORNING.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR MOST WATERS DURING THE
NIGHT.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY BELOW 25 KNOTS BUT
GUSTING NEAR 25 KNOTS EAST OF CAPE ANN SATURDAY NIGHT. SEAS
DIMINISH SATURDAY BUT THEN RETURN TO NEAR 5 FEET EAST OF CAPE ANN
SATURDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY BUT WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE
BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...NORTH WINDS TURN NORTHEAST AND INCREASE TO AT LEAST
NEAR 30 KNOTS EACH DAY. DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUAL BEHAVIOR OF THE
TWO COASTAL LOW PRESSURE AREAS PASSING BY...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
WINDS TO REACH 35-40 KNOTS AT THIS TIME. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR GALES AT
THIS TIME...BUT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE. WINDS TURN BACK TO NORTHWEST
TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MAZ019>021.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MAZ004>007-009-011>018-026.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MAZ002-003-008-010.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MAZ022>024.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MAZ022.
RI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR RIZ007.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     RIZ001>006.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231>235-237-
     250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     236-251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...DOODY
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/DOODY
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 051731
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1231 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT STALLING OFFSHORE WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR LOW PRESSURE
TO TRAVEL ALONG AFTER SUNRISE. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL DELIVER A
MIX OF RAIN CHANGING TO HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BRINGS DRY WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH A WEAK
COLD FRONT SUNDAY MAY BRING A FEW CLOUDS. A COMPLEX COASTAL STORM
SHOULD AFFECT THE REGION LATER MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON/...
1 PM UPDATE...
CONTINUE TO REVISE SNOW MAP AS STRONG BANDING CONTINUES TO MOVE
ACROSS BOTH ERN MA AND WESTERN/CENTRAL MA AT THIS TIME. HAVE
REPORTS ALREADY EXCEEDING 8 INCHES IN SEVERAL SPOTS AS A RESULT OF
THESE BANDS. RATIOS USED LIKELY TOO LOW IS PART OF THE ISSUE AS
THE FEW REPORTS OF LIQUID EQUIVALENTS ARE ON TARGET WITH QPF.
OTHERWISE...TIMING STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR ENDING LATER TODAY/THIS
AFTERNOON.

HAVE ADDED ADVISORIES FOR CAPE/VINEYARD AND ALSO HOISTED WIND
ADVISORIES THERE AS WELL AS STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE AS THE LOW
PRES MAKES IT/S CLOSEST PASS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

*** WESTWARD TREND IN THE SYSTEM HAS ALLOWED FOR WARNINGS AND
  ADVISORIES TO BE EXPANDED ***

BUSY NIGHT AS WE CONTINUE TO EVALUATE THE LATEST DATA AND TRENDS FOR
THIS UPCOMING WINTER SYSTEM. PRECIP SHIELD CONTINUES TO MOVE
WESTWARD AS MID-LEVEL TROUGH STRENGTHENS. GULF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
POOL INTO THE REGION ALLOWING FOR PWATS TO BE CLOSE TO AN INCH.
BIGGEST TREND BETWEEN THE 12Z AND 00Z RUNS IS THAT THE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES ITS WESTWARD TREND.

HEAVY PRECIP SWATH OVER NJ AND EASTERN PA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHWARD AND IMPACT WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS. BECAUSE OF THIS
UPSTREAM TREND...HAVE EXPANDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO
INCLUDE ALL OF THE PIONEER VALLEY. ANY PRECIP THAT IS OR WILL FALL
WILL BE SNOW ACROSS THE EAST SLOPE OF THE BERKS AS MESONET SITES ARE
ALREADY REPORTING TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS TREND IS IN LINE WITH THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP
GUIDANCE.

ASIDE FROM THE EXPANSION...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO HEADLINES AT THIS
TIME. HAVE RECEIVED SEVERAL REPORTS OF EITHER SNOW...OR A WINTRY MIX
ACROSS CENTRAL MASS AND INTO CT. THIS IS ALSO IN LINE WITH THE
LATEST DUAL-POL DATA. HIGHER REFLECTIVITY ECHOES ARE STARTING TO
MOVE INTO WINDHAM COUNTY...WHICH WILL BE EITHER A MIX OR JUST SNOW
AS 925 MB TEMPS ARE ALREADY BELOW 32F PER SPC MESO DATA. ANTICIPATE
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS TO BE FAIRLY BUSY WITH RAIN/SNOW MIX
TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST AND SURFACE LOW NEARS.

P-TYPE AND CHANGE OVER TIMING...

MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPILL INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS COASTAL
LOW MOVES ALONG STALLED COLD FRONT. AS MENTIONED EARLIER THE PRECIP
SHIED HAS EXPANDED FARTHER WESTWARD THEN ORIGINALLY FORECAST...WHICH
IS THE LATEST TREND IN ALL OF THE GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE 06Z NAM.
CHANGE OVER HAS ALREADY STARTED TO OCCUR ACROSS SEVERAL LOCATIONS
AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. STILL
CONCERNED ABOUT THE MORNING COMMUTE FOR MANY AREAS WEST OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR WHERE HEAVY WET SNOW WILL BE FALLING. ANTICIPATE THE CHANGE
OVER TO MAKE IT TO SOUTHEASTERN MASS INCLUDING BOS AND PVD CLOSER TO
THE 6-8 AM HOUR. THE CAPE AND ISLANDS WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER AS CAA
WILL TAKE A BIT OF TIME TO REACH THEM. FEEL IT WILL BE CLOSER TO
10AM-NOON. ALTHOUGH SLEET MAY MIX IN DURING THE TRANSITION...BELIEVE
MANY LOCATIONS WILL SWITCH FROM RAIN TO STRAIGHT SNOW.

QPF AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...

HAVE ADJUSTED THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SOME OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.
GENERALLY BELIEVE THAT LOCATIONS WITHIN THE WARNING WILL GET AT
LEAST A SLOPPY 5-7 INCHES OF SNOW. HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL HILLS WITHIN
TOLLAND...WINDHAM...WORCESTER AND PROVIDENCE COUNTIES. MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT FOR QPF. THE BIGGEST ISSUE IS THE BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPS AND THERMAL PROFILES. BELIEVE WE HAVE A GOOD TREND GOING
AT THIS TIME. SOME AREAS IN QUESTION WHICH COULD BE UPGRADED WITHIN
THE WARNING IS SOUTHERN BRISTOL AND PLYMOUTH COUNTIES. HOWEVER THESE
LOCATIONS MAY BE STUCK IN THE MIX LONGER KEEPING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
LOW. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND UPGRADED THE EAST SLOPE OF THE BERK TO AN
ADV AS SNOW IS ALREADY STARTING TO FALL PER WEBCAMS. THE PIONEER AND
CONNECTICUT VALLEY MAY SEE LOWER AMOUNTS AS WELL THANKS TO
SHADOWING. SO EVEN THOUGH SNOW AMOUNTS ARE OUT...THERE STILL COULD
BE SOME CHANGES THANKS TO SOME MESOSCALE ISSUES.

IMPACTS...

DUE TO THE FACT THAT SNOW RATIOS WILL BE LOW WITH THIS STORM...AND
BANDING WITH 1+ INCH/HR RATES ARE POSSIBLE...HEAVY WET SNOW MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED POWER OUTAGES. THIS WILL BE EXACERBATED BY A LLJ AROUND
40 KT WITH THE POTENTIAL TO MIX DOWN SOME OF IT/S MOMENTUM.
THEREFORE...THE COMBINATION OF WIND GUSTS 30-40 MPH AND HEAVY WET
SNOW MAY INCREASE THE RISK.

THE OTHER PRIMARY IMPACT IS THAT THE CHANGE-OVER AND HEAVIEST
PRECIP/SNOW WILL BE OCCURRING DURING THE PEAK HOURS OF THE AM
COMMUTE...WITH LOCALIZED VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AND SLIPPERY
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /2 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE MORE DYNAMIC NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM IN RELATION TO PREVIOUS
PROGS SUGGEST A SLOWER END. ALTHOUGH THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BE
DRYING THE LOW LEVELS...SO THERE COULD BE A LITTLE BIT OF SNOW
LEFTOVER MID-LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN MA BEFORE THINGS END BY
EARLY EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO QUICKLY DROP OFF DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS MAY CAUSE ANY UNTREATED ROADS TO BE SLIPPERY
FOR THE EVENING COMMUTE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...

LONGWAVE SCALE CONTINUES TO SHOW BUILDING RIDGE IN THE WEST AND
DIGGING TROUGH IN THE EAST...POINTING TO WARM TREND WEST AND COOLING
EAST. SMALLER SCALE CONTINUES TO SHOW A THREE-RING CIRCUS OF
SHORTWAVES EITHER AFFECTING OR WITH POTENTIAL TO AFFECT OUR WEATHER
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.  THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE WITH TWO
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN UPPER TROUGH TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY
WHERE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE SHORTWAVES COULD OCCUR.

MODEL MASS FIELDS ARE SIMILAR THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS ALSO AGREE
ON TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS...ONE WELL OFFSHORE MONDAY AND A SECOND CLOSE
TO SHORE TUESDAY. BUT ALL SHOW DIFFERING SCENARIOS FOR HOW THESE
SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BEST CONFIDENCE IN
HANDLING THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEMS IS WITH THE GEFS /ENSEMBLES/

THE DAILIES...

TONIGHT-SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

COASTAL LOW MOVES OFF THROUGH NOVA SCOTIA AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE EASTERN USA.  EXPECT DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLY COLD
TEMPERATURES. CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WIND OVER FRESH SNOW COVER
MAY LEAD TO COOLER TEMPS TONIGHT THAN INDICATED BY GUIDANCE. WITH
DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS AND WINDS BECOMING LIGHT...WE BUMPED
GUIDANCE DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES.  ON SATURDAY WITH WINDS ALOFT
SHIFTING SOUTHWEST...THE MIXED LAYER SHOULD REACH AROUND 950 MB.
TEMPS AT THAT LEVEL WOULD SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S.

SUNDAY...MODERATE-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
CROSS THE NORTHEAST USA. THE GFS PUSHES THE FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE DAY WHILE THE ECMWF SEEMS TO LOSE THE FRONT
IN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. LIMITED MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS SUGGEST JUST
A FEW CLOUDS BUT NO PRECIP.  HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM QUEBEC
INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH COLDER AIR ARRIVING BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE LOWER
40S. THE COLDER AIR ARRIVING SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BRING MIN TEMPS
ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN ON SATURDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE...AS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED...GENERATES A
SURFACE LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST USA COAST. THIS COASTAL LOW THEN MOVES
NORTHEAST AND PASSES WELL OFFSHORE OF OUR AREA. NORMALLY THIS PATH
WOULD KEEP PCPN OFFSHORE. HOWEVER WITH THE HIGH TO THE NORTH WE
COULD DEVELOP SUFFICIENT MARINE FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MAINE TO BRING
CLOUDS AND PCPN MONDAY ESPECIALLY IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. TEMPERATURE
PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT MAINLY SNOW...BUT WITH POTENTIAL RAIN/SNOW
MIX NEAR THE COAST.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES ASHORE FROM THE PACIFIC TONIGHT AND CROSSES
TO THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS DIGS AN UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE MIDWEST AND LEADS TO COASTAL LOW PRESSURE FORMING ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THE LOW THEN MOVES UP
THE COAST TUESDAY AND PASSES OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND. EACH MODEL
HANDLES THIS COASTAL LOW DIFFERENTLY...SO CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE
SOLUTION IS LOW. CONFIDENCE SHOULD INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AS
THE SHORTWAVE MOVES FEET-DRY ON THE PACIFIC COAST.

BEST DYNAMICS UNDER THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE SUPPORTING UPPER JET
MOVES OFF TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT...SO BEST CHANCE
OF PCPN SHOULD BE ON TUESDAY THEN DIMINISH TO SHOWERS TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. PTYPE AGAIN FAVORS SNOW INLAND AND SNOW OR A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ALONG THE COAST.

UPPER TROUGH/COLD POOL FROM THE MIDWEST LINGERS OVER THE NORTHEAST
USA THROUGH THURSDAY MAINTAINING SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

THROUGH 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...TIMING MAY BE OFF A BIT.
AREAS OF LIFR/IFR IN HEAVY SNOW AND LOW CIGS CONTINUE THROUGH
ABOUT 20Z EVERYWHERE...THEN GIVE WAY TO VFR FROM W-E THROUGH 00Z.
STRONG N WINDS WITH GUSTS 20-30 KT OVER THE INTERIOR AND 30-40 KT
ALONG THE CAPE/ISLAND.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. ANY UNTREATED AND WET RUNWAYS WILL FREEZE AS
TEMPERATURES DROP RAPIDLY. WIND GUSTS REMAIN N-NW BUT DIMINISH
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

TOMORROW...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. WINDS SHIFT TO THE SW...BUT SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 10 KT
OR LESS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...TIMING MAY BE OFF A
BIT.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS....TIMING MAY BE OFF A
BIT.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW OR
RAIN/SNOW MIX. NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING 20-30 KNOTS ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY... NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS PICK UP THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH
GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 35 KT ALONG THE SOUTHERN WATERS...AND 35-45
KT ON THE EASTERN WATERS. GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY. SEAS BECOME HIGH...MAINLY 8-10 FT ON THE SE OCEAN
WATERS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A PERIOD OF RAIN/FOG ACROSS THE WATERS
WITH A POSSIBLE CHANGE TO SNOW NEAR THE EASTERN SHORELINES.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...

TONIGHT...DIMINISHING NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 30 KNOTS EARLY AND
POPPING UNDER 25 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS AS HIGH AS 14 FEET ON
THE OUTER WATERS WILL SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT TO 5-7 FEET BY MORNING.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR MOST WATERS DURING THE
NIGHT.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY BELOW 25 KNOTS BUT
GUSTING NEAR 25 KNOTS EAST OF CAPE ANN SATURDAY NIGHT. SEAS
DIMINISH SATURDAY BUT THEN RETURN TO NEAR 5 FEET EAST OF CAPE ANN
SATURDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY BUT WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE
BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...NORTH WINDS TURN NORTHEAST AND INCREASE TO AT LEAST
NEAR 30 KNOTS EACH DAY. DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUAL BEHAVIOR OF THE
TWO COASTAL LOW PRESSURE AREAS PASSING BY...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
WINDS TO REACH 35-40 KNOTS AT THIS TIME. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR GALES AT
THIS TIME...BUT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE. WINDS TURN BACK TO NORTHWEST
TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MAZ019>021.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MAZ004>007-009-011>018-026.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MAZ002-003-008-010.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MAZ022>024.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MAZ022.
RI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR RIZ007.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     RIZ001>006.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231>235-237-
     250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     236-251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...DOODY
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/DOODY
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 051731
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1231 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT STALLING OFFSHORE WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR LOW PRESSURE
TO TRAVEL ALONG AFTER SUNRISE. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL DELIVER A
MIX OF RAIN CHANGING TO HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BRINGS DRY WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH A WEAK
COLD FRONT SUNDAY MAY BRING A FEW CLOUDS. A COMPLEX COASTAL STORM
SHOULD AFFECT THE REGION LATER MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON/...
1 PM UPDATE...
CONTINUE TO REVISE SNOW MAP AS STRONG BANDING CONTINUES TO MOVE
ACROSS BOTH ERN MA AND WESTERN/CENTRAL MA AT THIS TIME. HAVE
REPORTS ALREADY EXCEEDING 8 INCHES IN SEVERAL SPOTS AS A RESULT OF
THESE BANDS. RATIOS USED LIKELY TOO LOW IS PART OF THE ISSUE AS
THE FEW REPORTS OF LIQUID EQUIVALENTS ARE ON TARGET WITH QPF.
OTHERWISE...TIMING STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR ENDING LATER TODAY/THIS
AFTERNOON.

HAVE ADDED ADVISORIES FOR CAPE/VINEYARD AND ALSO HOISTED WIND
ADVISORIES THERE AS WELL AS STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE AS THE LOW
PRES MAKES IT/S CLOSEST PASS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

*** WESTWARD TREND IN THE SYSTEM HAS ALLOWED FOR WARNINGS AND
  ADVISORIES TO BE EXPANDED ***

BUSY NIGHT AS WE CONTINUE TO EVALUATE THE LATEST DATA AND TRENDS FOR
THIS UPCOMING WINTER SYSTEM. PRECIP SHIELD CONTINUES TO MOVE
WESTWARD AS MID-LEVEL TROUGH STRENGTHENS. GULF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
POOL INTO THE REGION ALLOWING FOR PWATS TO BE CLOSE TO AN INCH.
BIGGEST TREND BETWEEN THE 12Z AND 00Z RUNS IS THAT THE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES ITS WESTWARD TREND.

HEAVY PRECIP SWATH OVER NJ AND EASTERN PA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHWARD AND IMPACT WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS. BECAUSE OF THIS
UPSTREAM TREND...HAVE EXPANDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO
INCLUDE ALL OF THE PIONEER VALLEY. ANY PRECIP THAT IS OR WILL FALL
WILL BE SNOW ACROSS THE EAST SLOPE OF THE BERKS AS MESONET SITES ARE
ALREADY REPORTING TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS TREND IS IN LINE WITH THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP
GUIDANCE.

ASIDE FROM THE EXPANSION...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO HEADLINES AT THIS
TIME. HAVE RECEIVED SEVERAL REPORTS OF EITHER SNOW...OR A WINTRY MIX
ACROSS CENTRAL MASS AND INTO CT. THIS IS ALSO IN LINE WITH THE
LATEST DUAL-POL DATA. HIGHER REFLECTIVITY ECHOES ARE STARTING TO
MOVE INTO WINDHAM COUNTY...WHICH WILL BE EITHER A MIX OR JUST SNOW
AS 925 MB TEMPS ARE ALREADY BELOW 32F PER SPC MESO DATA. ANTICIPATE
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS TO BE FAIRLY BUSY WITH RAIN/SNOW MIX
TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST AND SURFACE LOW NEARS.

P-TYPE AND CHANGE OVER TIMING...

MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPILL INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS COASTAL
LOW MOVES ALONG STALLED COLD FRONT. AS MENTIONED EARLIER THE PRECIP
SHIED HAS EXPANDED FARTHER WESTWARD THEN ORIGINALLY FORECAST...WHICH
IS THE LATEST TREND IN ALL OF THE GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE 06Z NAM.
CHANGE OVER HAS ALREADY STARTED TO OCCUR ACROSS SEVERAL LOCATIONS
AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. STILL
CONCERNED ABOUT THE MORNING COMMUTE FOR MANY AREAS WEST OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR WHERE HEAVY WET SNOW WILL BE FALLING. ANTICIPATE THE CHANGE
OVER TO MAKE IT TO SOUTHEASTERN MASS INCLUDING BOS AND PVD CLOSER TO
THE 6-8 AM HOUR. THE CAPE AND ISLANDS WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER AS CAA
WILL TAKE A BIT OF TIME TO REACH THEM. FEEL IT WILL BE CLOSER TO
10AM-NOON. ALTHOUGH SLEET MAY MIX IN DURING THE TRANSITION...BELIEVE
MANY LOCATIONS WILL SWITCH FROM RAIN TO STRAIGHT SNOW.

QPF AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...

HAVE ADJUSTED THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SOME OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.
GENERALLY BELIEVE THAT LOCATIONS WITHIN THE WARNING WILL GET AT
LEAST A SLOPPY 5-7 INCHES OF SNOW. HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL HILLS WITHIN
TOLLAND...WINDHAM...WORCESTER AND PROVIDENCE COUNTIES. MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT FOR QPF. THE BIGGEST ISSUE IS THE BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPS AND THERMAL PROFILES. BELIEVE WE HAVE A GOOD TREND GOING
AT THIS TIME. SOME AREAS IN QUESTION WHICH COULD BE UPGRADED WITHIN
THE WARNING IS SOUTHERN BRISTOL AND PLYMOUTH COUNTIES. HOWEVER THESE
LOCATIONS MAY BE STUCK IN THE MIX LONGER KEEPING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
LOW. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND UPGRADED THE EAST SLOPE OF THE BERK TO AN
ADV AS SNOW IS ALREADY STARTING TO FALL PER WEBCAMS. THE PIONEER AND
CONNECTICUT VALLEY MAY SEE LOWER AMOUNTS AS WELL THANKS TO
SHADOWING. SO EVEN THOUGH SNOW AMOUNTS ARE OUT...THERE STILL COULD
BE SOME CHANGES THANKS TO SOME MESOSCALE ISSUES.

IMPACTS...

DUE TO THE FACT THAT SNOW RATIOS WILL BE LOW WITH THIS STORM...AND
BANDING WITH 1+ INCH/HR RATES ARE POSSIBLE...HEAVY WET SNOW MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED POWER OUTAGES. THIS WILL BE EXACERBATED BY A LLJ AROUND
40 KT WITH THE POTENTIAL TO MIX DOWN SOME OF IT/S MOMENTUM.
THEREFORE...THE COMBINATION OF WIND GUSTS 30-40 MPH AND HEAVY WET
SNOW MAY INCREASE THE RISK.

THE OTHER PRIMARY IMPACT IS THAT THE CHANGE-OVER AND HEAVIEST
PRECIP/SNOW WILL BE OCCURRING DURING THE PEAK HOURS OF THE AM
COMMUTE...WITH LOCALIZED VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AND SLIPPERY
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /2 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE MORE DYNAMIC NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM IN RELATION TO PREVIOUS
PROGS SUGGEST A SLOWER END. ALTHOUGH THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BE
DRYING THE LOW LEVELS...SO THERE COULD BE A LITTLE BIT OF SNOW
LEFTOVER MID-LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN MA BEFORE THINGS END BY
EARLY EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO QUICKLY DROP OFF DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS MAY CAUSE ANY UNTREATED ROADS TO BE SLIPPERY
FOR THE EVENING COMMUTE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...

LONGWAVE SCALE CONTINUES TO SHOW BUILDING RIDGE IN THE WEST AND
DIGGING TROUGH IN THE EAST...POINTING TO WARM TREND WEST AND COOLING
EAST. SMALLER SCALE CONTINUES TO SHOW A THREE-RING CIRCUS OF
SHORTWAVES EITHER AFFECTING OR WITH POTENTIAL TO AFFECT OUR WEATHER
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.  THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE WITH TWO
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN UPPER TROUGH TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY
WHERE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE SHORTWAVES COULD OCCUR.

MODEL MASS FIELDS ARE SIMILAR THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS ALSO AGREE
ON TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS...ONE WELL OFFSHORE MONDAY AND A SECOND CLOSE
TO SHORE TUESDAY. BUT ALL SHOW DIFFERING SCENARIOS FOR HOW THESE
SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BEST CONFIDENCE IN
HANDLING THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEMS IS WITH THE GEFS /ENSEMBLES/

THE DAILIES...

TONIGHT-SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

COASTAL LOW MOVES OFF THROUGH NOVA SCOTIA AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE EASTERN USA.  EXPECT DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLY COLD
TEMPERATURES. CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WIND OVER FRESH SNOW COVER
MAY LEAD TO COOLER TEMPS TONIGHT THAN INDICATED BY GUIDANCE. WITH
DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS AND WINDS BECOMING LIGHT...WE BUMPED
GUIDANCE DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES.  ON SATURDAY WITH WINDS ALOFT
SHIFTING SOUTHWEST...THE MIXED LAYER SHOULD REACH AROUND 950 MB.
TEMPS AT THAT LEVEL WOULD SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S.

SUNDAY...MODERATE-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
CROSS THE NORTHEAST USA. THE GFS PUSHES THE FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE DAY WHILE THE ECMWF SEEMS TO LOSE THE FRONT
IN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. LIMITED MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS SUGGEST JUST
A FEW CLOUDS BUT NO PRECIP.  HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM QUEBEC
INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH COLDER AIR ARRIVING BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE LOWER
40S. THE COLDER AIR ARRIVING SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BRING MIN TEMPS
ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN ON SATURDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE...AS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED...GENERATES A
SURFACE LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST USA COAST. THIS COASTAL LOW THEN MOVES
NORTHEAST AND PASSES WELL OFFSHORE OF OUR AREA. NORMALLY THIS PATH
WOULD KEEP PCPN OFFSHORE. HOWEVER WITH THE HIGH TO THE NORTH WE
COULD DEVELOP SUFFICIENT MARINE FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MAINE TO BRING
CLOUDS AND PCPN MONDAY ESPECIALLY IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. TEMPERATURE
PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT MAINLY SNOW...BUT WITH POTENTIAL RAIN/SNOW
MIX NEAR THE COAST.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES ASHORE FROM THE PACIFIC TONIGHT AND CROSSES
TO THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS DIGS AN UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE MIDWEST AND LEADS TO COASTAL LOW PRESSURE FORMING ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THE LOW THEN MOVES UP
THE COAST TUESDAY AND PASSES OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND. EACH MODEL
HANDLES THIS COASTAL LOW DIFFERENTLY...SO CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE
SOLUTION IS LOW. CONFIDENCE SHOULD INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AS
THE SHORTWAVE MOVES FEET-DRY ON THE PACIFIC COAST.

BEST DYNAMICS UNDER THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE SUPPORTING UPPER JET
MOVES OFF TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT...SO BEST CHANCE
OF PCPN SHOULD BE ON TUESDAY THEN DIMINISH TO SHOWERS TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. PTYPE AGAIN FAVORS SNOW INLAND AND SNOW OR A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ALONG THE COAST.

UPPER TROUGH/COLD POOL FROM THE MIDWEST LINGERS OVER THE NORTHEAST
USA THROUGH THURSDAY MAINTAINING SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

THROUGH 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...TIMING MAY BE OFF A BIT.
AREAS OF LIFR/IFR IN HEAVY SNOW AND LOW CIGS CONTINUE THROUGH
ABOUT 20Z EVERYWHERE...THEN GIVE WAY TO VFR FROM W-E THROUGH 00Z.
STRONG N WINDS WITH GUSTS 20-30 KT OVER THE INTERIOR AND 30-40 KT
ALONG THE CAPE/ISLAND.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. ANY UNTREATED AND WET RUNWAYS WILL FREEZE AS
TEMPERATURES DROP RAPIDLY. WIND GUSTS REMAIN N-NW BUT DIMINISH
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

TOMORROW...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. WINDS SHIFT TO THE SW...BUT SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 10 KT
OR LESS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...TIMING MAY BE OFF A
BIT.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS....TIMING MAY BE OFF A
BIT.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW OR
RAIN/SNOW MIX. NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING 20-30 KNOTS ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY... NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS PICK UP THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH
GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 35 KT ALONG THE SOUTHERN WATERS...AND 35-45
KT ON THE EASTERN WATERS. GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY. SEAS BECOME HIGH...MAINLY 8-10 FT ON THE SE OCEAN
WATERS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A PERIOD OF RAIN/FOG ACROSS THE WATERS
WITH A POSSIBLE CHANGE TO SNOW NEAR THE EASTERN SHORELINES.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...

TONIGHT...DIMINISHING NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 30 KNOTS EARLY AND
POPPING UNDER 25 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS AS HIGH AS 14 FEET ON
THE OUTER WATERS WILL SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT TO 5-7 FEET BY MORNING.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR MOST WATERS DURING THE
NIGHT.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY BELOW 25 KNOTS BUT
GUSTING NEAR 25 KNOTS EAST OF CAPE ANN SATURDAY NIGHT. SEAS
DIMINISH SATURDAY BUT THEN RETURN TO NEAR 5 FEET EAST OF CAPE ANN
SATURDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY BUT WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE
BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...NORTH WINDS TURN NORTHEAST AND INCREASE TO AT LEAST
NEAR 30 KNOTS EACH DAY. DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUAL BEHAVIOR OF THE
TWO COASTAL LOW PRESSURE AREAS PASSING BY...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
WINDS TO REACH 35-40 KNOTS AT THIS TIME. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR GALES AT
THIS TIME...BUT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE. WINDS TURN BACK TO NORTHWEST
TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MAZ019>021.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MAZ004>007-009-011>018-026.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MAZ002-003-008-010.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MAZ022>024.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MAZ022.
RI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR RIZ007.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     RIZ001>006.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231>235-237-
     250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     236-251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...DOODY
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/DOODY
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 051731
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1231 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT STALLING OFFSHORE WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR LOW PRESSURE
TO TRAVEL ALONG AFTER SUNRISE. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL DELIVER A
MIX OF RAIN CHANGING TO HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BRINGS DRY WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH A WEAK
COLD FRONT SUNDAY MAY BRING A FEW CLOUDS. A COMPLEX COASTAL STORM
SHOULD AFFECT THE REGION LATER MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON/...
1 PM UPDATE...
CONTINUE TO REVISE SNOW MAP AS STRONG BANDING CONTINUES TO MOVE
ACROSS BOTH ERN MA AND WESTERN/CENTRAL MA AT THIS TIME. HAVE
REPORTS ALREADY EXCEEDING 8 INCHES IN SEVERAL SPOTS AS A RESULT OF
THESE BANDS. RATIOS USED LIKELY TOO LOW IS PART OF THE ISSUE AS
THE FEW REPORTS OF LIQUID EQUIVALENTS ARE ON TARGET WITH QPF.
OTHERWISE...TIMING STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR ENDING LATER TODAY/THIS
AFTERNOON.

HAVE ADDED ADVISORIES FOR CAPE/VINEYARD AND ALSO HOISTED WIND
ADVISORIES THERE AS WELL AS STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE AS THE LOW
PRES MAKES IT/S CLOSEST PASS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

*** WESTWARD TREND IN THE SYSTEM HAS ALLOWED FOR WARNINGS AND
  ADVISORIES TO BE EXPANDED ***

BUSY NIGHT AS WE CONTINUE TO EVALUATE THE LATEST DATA AND TRENDS FOR
THIS UPCOMING WINTER SYSTEM. PRECIP SHIELD CONTINUES TO MOVE
WESTWARD AS MID-LEVEL TROUGH STRENGTHENS. GULF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
POOL INTO THE REGION ALLOWING FOR PWATS TO BE CLOSE TO AN INCH.
BIGGEST TREND BETWEEN THE 12Z AND 00Z RUNS IS THAT THE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES ITS WESTWARD TREND.

HEAVY PRECIP SWATH OVER NJ AND EASTERN PA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHWARD AND IMPACT WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS. BECAUSE OF THIS
UPSTREAM TREND...HAVE EXPANDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO
INCLUDE ALL OF THE PIONEER VALLEY. ANY PRECIP THAT IS OR WILL FALL
WILL BE SNOW ACROSS THE EAST SLOPE OF THE BERKS AS MESONET SITES ARE
ALREADY REPORTING TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS TREND IS IN LINE WITH THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP
GUIDANCE.

ASIDE FROM THE EXPANSION...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO HEADLINES AT THIS
TIME. HAVE RECEIVED SEVERAL REPORTS OF EITHER SNOW...OR A WINTRY MIX
ACROSS CENTRAL MASS AND INTO CT. THIS IS ALSO IN LINE WITH THE
LATEST DUAL-POL DATA. HIGHER REFLECTIVITY ECHOES ARE STARTING TO
MOVE INTO WINDHAM COUNTY...WHICH WILL BE EITHER A MIX OR JUST SNOW
AS 925 MB TEMPS ARE ALREADY BELOW 32F PER SPC MESO DATA. ANTICIPATE
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS TO BE FAIRLY BUSY WITH RAIN/SNOW MIX
TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST AND SURFACE LOW NEARS.

P-TYPE AND CHANGE OVER TIMING...

MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPILL INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS COASTAL
LOW MOVES ALONG STALLED COLD FRONT. AS MENTIONED EARLIER THE PRECIP
SHIED HAS EXPANDED FARTHER WESTWARD THEN ORIGINALLY FORECAST...WHICH
IS THE LATEST TREND IN ALL OF THE GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE 06Z NAM.
CHANGE OVER HAS ALREADY STARTED TO OCCUR ACROSS SEVERAL LOCATIONS
AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. STILL
CONCERNED ABOUT THE MORNING COMMUTE FOR MANY AREAS WEST OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR WHERE HEAVY WET SNOW WILL BE FALLING. ANTICIPATE THE CHANGE
OVER TO MAKE IT TO SOUTHEASTERN MASS INCLUDING BOS AND PVD CLOSER TO
THE 6-8 AM HOUR. THE CAPE AND ISLANDS WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER AS CAA
WILL TAKE A BIT OF TIME TO REACH THEM. FEEL IT WILL BE CLOSER TO
10AM-NOON. ALTHOUGH SLEET MAY MIX IN DURING THE TRANSITION...BELIEVE
MANY LOCATIONS WILL SWITCH FROM RAIN TO STRAIGHT SNOW.

QPF AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...

HAVE ADJUSTED THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SOME OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.
GENERALLY BELIEVE THAT LOCATIONS WITHIN THE WARNING WILL GET AT
LEAST A SLOPPY 5-7 INCHES OF SNOW. HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL HILLS WITHIN
TOLLAND...WINDHAM...WORCESTER AND PROVIDENCE COUNTIES. MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT FOR QPF. THE BIGGEST ISSUE IS THE BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPS AND THERMAL PROFILES. BELIEVE WE HAVE A GOOD TREND GOING
AT THIS TIME. SOME AREAS IN QUESTION WHICH COULD BE UPGRADED WITHIN
THE WARNING IS SOUTHERN BRISTOL AND PLYMOUTH COUNTIES. HOWEVER THESE
LOCATIONS MAY BE STUCK IN THE MIX LONGER KEEPING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
LOW. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND UPGRADED THE EAST SLOPE OF THE BERK TO AN
ADV AS SNOW IS ALREADY STARTING TO FALL PER WEBCAMS. THE PIONEER AND
CONNECTICUT VALLEY MAY SEE LOWER AMOUNTS AS WELL THANKS TO
SHADOWING. SO EVEN THOUGH SNOW AMOUNTS ARE OUT...THERE STILL COULD
BE SOME CHANGES THANKS TO SOME MESOSCALE ISSUES.

IMPACTS...

DUE TO THE FACT THAT SNOW RATIOS WILL BE LOW WITH THIS STORM...AND
BANDING WITH 1+ INCH/HR RATES ARE POSSIBLE...HEAVY WET SNOW MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED POWER OUTAGES. THIS WILL BE EXACERBATED BY A LLJ AROUND
40 KT WITH THE POTENTIAL TO MIX DOWN SOME OF IT/S MOMENTUM.
THEREFORE...THE COMBINATION OF WIND GUSTS 30-40 MPH AND HEAVY WET
SNOW MAY INCREASE THE RISK.

THE OTHER PRIMARY IMPACT IS THAT THE CHANGE-OVER AND HEAVIEST
PRECIP/SNOW WILL BE OCCURRING DURING THE PEAK HOURS OF THE AM
COMMUTE...WITH LOCALIZED VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AND SLIPPERY
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /2 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE MORE DYNAMIC NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM IN RELATION TO PREVIOUS
PROGS SUGGEST A SLOWER END. ALTHOUGH THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BE
DRYING THE LOW LEVELS...SO THERE COULD BE A LITTLE BIT OF SNOW
LEFTOVER MID-LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN MA BEFORE THINGS END BY
EARLY EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO QUICKLY DROP OFF DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS MAY CAUSE ANY UNTREATED ROADS TO BE SLIPPERY
FOR THE EVENING COMMUTE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...

LONGWAVE SCALE CONTINUES TO SHOW BUILDING RIDGE IN THE WEST AND
DIGGING TROUGH IN THE EAST...POINTING TO WARM TREND WEST AND COOLING
EAST. SMALLER SCALE CONTINUES TO SHOW A THREE-RING CIRCUS OF
SHORTWAVES EITHER AFFECTING OR WITH POTENTIAL TO AFFECT OUR WEATHER
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.  THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE WITH TWO
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN UPPER TROUGH TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY
WHERE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE SHORTWAVES COULD OCCUR.

MODEL MASS FIELDS ARE SIMILAR THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS ALSO AGREE
ON TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS...ONE WELL OFFSHORE MONDAY AND A SECOND CLOSE
TO SHORE TUESDAY. BUT ALL SHOW DIFFERING SCENARIOS FOR HOW THESE
SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BEST CONFIDENCE IN
HANDLING THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEMS IS WITH THE GEFS /ENSEMBLES/

THE DAILIES...

TONIGHT-SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

COASTAL LOW MOVES OFF THROUGH NOVA SCOTIA AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE EASTERN USA.  EXPECT DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLY COLD
TEMPERATURES. CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WIND OVER FRESH SNOW COVER
MAY LEAD TO COOLER TEMPS TONIGHT THAN INDICATED BY GUIDANCE. WITH
DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS AND WINDS BECOMING LIGHT...WE BUMPED
GUIDANCE DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES.  ON SATURDAY WITH WINDS ALOFT
SHIFTING SOUTHWEST...THE MIXED LAYER SHOULD REACH AROUND 950 MB.
TEMPS AT THAT LEVEL WOULD SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S.

SUNDAY...MODERATE-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
CROSS THE NORTHEAST USA. THE GFS PUSHES THE FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE DAY WHILE THE ECMWF SEEMS TO LOSE THE FRONT
IN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. LIMITED MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS SUGGEST JUST
A FEW CLOUDS BUT NO PRECIP.  HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM QUEBEC
INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH COLDER AIR ARRIVING BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE LOWER
40S. THE COLDER AIR ARRIVING SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BRING MIN TEMPS
ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN ON SATURDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE...AS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED...GENERATES A
SURFACE LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST USA COAST. THIS COASTAL LOW THEN MOVES
NORTHEAST AND PASSES WELL OFFSHORE OF OUR AREA. NORMALLY THIS PATH
WOULD KEEP PCPN OFFSHORE. HOWEVER WITH THE HIGH TO THE NORTH WE
COULD DEVELOP SUFFICIENT MARINE FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MAINE TO BRING
CLOUDS AND PCPN MONDAY ESPECIALLY IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. TEMPERATURE
PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT MAINLY SNOW...BUT WITH POTENTIAL RAIN/SNOW
MIX NEAR THE COAST.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES ASHORE FROM THE PACIFIC TONIGHT AND CROSSES
TO THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS DIGS AN UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE MIDWEST AND LEADS TO COASTAL LOW PRESSURE FORMING ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THE LOW THEN MOVES UP
THE COAST TUESDAY AND PASSES OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND. EACH MODEL
HANDLES THIS COASTAL LOW DIFFERENTLY...SO CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE
SOLUTION IS LOW. CONFIDENCE SHOULD INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AS
THE SHORTWAVE MOVES FEET-DRY ON THE PACIFIC COAST.

BEST DYNAMICS UNDER THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE SUPPORTING UPPER JET
MOVES OFF TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT...SO BEST CHANCE
OF PCPN SHOULD BE ON TUESDAY THEN DIMINISH TO SHOWERS TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. PTYPE AGAIN FAVORS SNOW INLAND AND SNOW OR A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ALONG THE COAST.

UPPER TROUGH/COLD POOL FROM THE MIDWEST LINGERS OVER THE NORTHEAST
USA THROUGH THURSDAY MAINTAINING SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

THROUGH 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...TIMING MAY BE OFF A BIT.
AREAS OF LIFR/IFR IN HEAVY SNOW AND LOW CIGS CONTINUE THROUGH
ABOUT 20Z EVERYWHERE...THEN GIVE WAY TO VFR FROM W-E THROUGH 00Z.
STRONG N WINDS WITH GUSTS 20-30 KT OVER THE INTERIOR AND 30-40 KT
ALONG THE CAPE/ISLAND.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. ANY UNTREATED AND WET RUNWAYS WILL FREEZE AS
TEMPERATURES DROP RAPIDLY. WIND GUSTS REMAIN N-NW BUT DIMINISH
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

TOMORROW...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. WINDS SHIFT TO THE SW...BUT SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 10 KT
OR LESS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...TIMING MAY BE OFF A
BIT.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS....TIMING MAY BE OFF A
BIT.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW OR
RAIN/SNOW MIX. NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING 20-30 KNOTS ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY... NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS PICK UP THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH
GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 35 KT ALONG THE SOUTHERN WATERS...AND 35-45
KT ON THE EASTERN WATERS. GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY. SEAS BECOME HIGH...MAINLY 8-10 FT ON THE SE OCEAN
WATERS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A PERIOD OF RAIN/FOG ACROSS THE WATERS
WITH A POSSIBLE CHANGE TO SNOW NEAR THE EASTERN SHORELINES.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...

TONIGHT...DIMINISHING NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 30 KNOTS EARLY AND
POPPING UNDER 25 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS AS HIGH AS 14 FEET ON
THE OUTER WATERS WILL SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT TO 5-7 FEET BY MORNING.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR MOST WATERS DURING THE
NIGHT.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY BELOW 25 KNOTS BUT
GUSTING NEAR 25 KNOTS EAST OF CAPE ANN SATURDAY NIGHT. SEAS
DIMINISH SATURDAY BUT THEN RETURN TO NEAR 5 FEET EAST OF CAPE ANN
SATURDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY BUT WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE
BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...NORTH WINDS TURN NORTHEAST AND INCREASE TO AT LEAST
NEAR 30 KNOTS EACH DAY. DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUAL BEHAVIOR OF THE
TWO COASTAL LOW PRESSURE AREAS PASSING BY...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
WINDS TO REACH 35-40 KNOTS AT THIS TIME. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR GALES AT
THIS TIME...BUT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE. WINDS TURN BACK TO NORTHWEST
TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MAZ019>021.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MAZ004>007-009-011>018-026.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MAZ002-003-008-010.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MAZ022>024.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MAZ022.
RI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR RIZ007.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     RIZ001>006.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231>235-237-
     250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     236-251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...DOODY
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/DOODY
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 051731
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1231 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT STALLING OFFSHORE WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR LOW PRESSURE
TO TRAVEL ALONG AFTER SUNRISE. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL DELIVER A
MIX OF RAIN CHANGING TO HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BRINGS DRY WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH A WEAK
COLD FRONT SUNDAY MAY BRING A FEW CLOUDS. A COMPLEX COASTAL STORM
SHOULD AFFECT THE REGION LATER MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON/...
1 PM UPDATE...
CONTINUE TO REVISE SNOW MAP AS STRONG BANDING CONTINUES TO MOVE
ACROSS BOTH ERN MA AND WESTERN/CENTRAL MA AT THIS TIME. HAVE
REPORTS ALREADY EXCEEDING 8 INCHES IN SEVERAL SPOTS AS A RESULT OF
THESE BANDS. RATIOS USED LIKELY TOO LOW IS PART OF THE ISSUE AS
THE FEW REPORTS OF LIQUID EQUIVALENTS ARE ON TARGET WITH QPF.
OTHERWISE...TIMING STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR ENDING LATER TODAY/THIS
AFTERNOON.

HAVE ADDED ADVISORIES FOR CAPE/VINEYARD AND ALSO HOISTED WIND
ADVISORIES THERE AS WELL AS STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE AS THE LOW
PRES MAKES IT/S CLOSEST PASS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

*** WESTWARD TREND IN THE SYSTEM HAS ALLOWED FOR WARNINGS AND
  ADVISORIES TO BE EXPANDED ***

BUSY NIGHT AS WE CONTINUE TO EVALUATE THE LATEST DATA AND TRENDS FOR
THIS UPCOMING WINTER SYSTEM. PRECIP SHIELD CONTINUES TO MOVE
WESTWARD AS MID-LEVEL TROUGH STRENGTHENS. GULF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
POOL INTO THE REGION ALLOWING FOR PWATS TO BE CLOSE TO AN INCH.
BIGGEST TREND BETWEEN THE 12Z AND 00Z RUNS IS THAT THE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES ITS WESTWARD TREND.

HEAVY PRECIP SWATH OVER NJ AND EASTERN PA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHWARD AND IMPACT WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS. BECAUSE OF THIS
UPSTREAM TREND...HAVE EXPANDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO
INCLUDE ALL OF THE PIONEER VALLEY. ANY PRECIP THAT IS OR WILL FALL
WILL BE SNOW ACROSS THE EAST SLOPE OF THE BERKS AS MESONET SITES ARE
ALREADY REPORTING TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS TREND IS IN LINE WITH THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP
GUIDANCE.

ASIDE FROM THE EXPANSION...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO HEADLINES AT THIS
TIME. HAVE RECEIVED SEVERAL REPORTS OF EITHER SNOW...OR A WINTRY MIX
ACROSS CENTRAL MASS AND INTO CT. THIS IS ALSO IN LINE WITH THE
LATEST DUAL-POL DATA. HIGHER REFLECTIVITY ECHOES ARE STARTING TO
MOVE INTO WINDHAM COUNTY...WHICH WILL BE EITHER A MIX OR JUST SNOW
AS 925 MB TEMPS ARE ALREADY BELOW 32F PER SPC MESO DATA. ANTICIPATE
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS TO BE FAIRLY BUSY WITH RAIN/SNOW MIX
TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST AND SURFACE LOW NEARS.

P-TYPE AND CHANGE OVER TIMING...

MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPILL INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS COASTAL
LOW MOVES ALONG STALLED COLD FRONT. AS MENTIONED EARLIER THE PRECIP
SHIED HAS EXPANDED FARTHER WESTWARD THEN ORIGINALLY FORECAST...WHICH
IS THE LATEST TREND IN ALL OF THE GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE 06Z NAM.
CHANGE OVER HAS ALREADY STARTED TO OCCUR ACROSS SEVERAL LOCATIONS
AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. STILL
CONCERNED ABOUT THE MORNING COMMUTE FOR MANY AREAS WEST OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR WHERE HEAVY WET SNOW WILL BE FALLING. ANTICIPATE THE CHANGE
OVER TO MAKE IT TO SOUTHEASTERN MASS INCLUDING BOS AND PVD CLOSER TO
THE 6-8 AM HOUR. THE CAPE AND ISLANDS WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER AS CAA
WILL TAKE A BIT OF TIME TO REACH THEM. FEEL IT WILL BE CLOSER TO
10AM-NOON. ALTHOUGH SLEET MAY MIX IN DURING THE TRANSITION...BELIEVE
MANY LOCATIONS WILL SWITCH FROM RAIN TO STRAIGHT SNOW.

QPF AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...

HAVE ADJUSTED THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SOME OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.
GENERALLY BELIEVE THAT LOCATIONS WITHIN THE WARNING WILL GET AT
LEAST A SLOPPY 5-7 INCHES OF SNOW. HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL HILLS WITHIN
TOLLAND...WINDHAM...WORCESTER AND PROVIDENCE COUNTIES. MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT FOR QPF. THE BIGGEST ISSUE IS THE BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPS AND THERMAL PROFILES. BELIEVE WE HAVE A GOOD TREND GOING
AT THIS TIME. SOME AREAS IN QUESTION WHICH COULD BE UPGRADED WITHIN
THE WARNING IS SOUTHERN BRISTOL AND PLYMOUTH COUNTIES. HOWEVER THESE
LOCATIONS MAY BE STUCK IN THE MIX LONGER KEEPING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
LOW. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND UPGRADED THE EAST SLOPE OF THE BERK TO AN
ADV AS SNOW IS ALREADY STARTING TO FALL PER WEBCAMS. THE PIONEER AND
CONNECTICUT VALLEY MAY SEE LOWER AMOUNTS AS WELL THANKS TO
SHADOWING. SO EVEN THOUGH SNOW AMOUNTS ARE OUT...THERE STILL COULD
BE SOME CHANGES THANKS TO SOME MESOSCALE ISSUES.

IMPACTS...

DUE TO THE FACT THAT SNOW RATIOS WILL BE LOW WITH THIS STORM...AND
BANDING WITH 1+ INCH/HR RATES ARE POSSIBLE...HEAVY WET SNOW MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED POWER OUTAGES. THIS WILL BE EXACERBATED BY A LLJ AROUND
40 KT WITH THE POTENTIAL TO MIX DOWN SOME OF IT/S MOMENTUM.
THEREFORE...THE COMBINATION OF WIND GUSTS 30-40 MPH AND HEAVY WET
SNOW MAY INCREASE THE RISK.

THE OTHER PRIMARY IMPACT IS THAT THE CHANGE-OVER AND HEAVIEST
PRECIP/SNOW WILL BE OCCURRING DURING THE PEAK HOURS OF THE AM
COMMUTE...WITH LOCALIZED VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AND SLIPPERY
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /2 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE MORE DYNAMIC NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM IN RELATION TO PREVIOUS
PROGS SUGGEST A SLOWER END. ALTHOUGH THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BE
DRYING THE LOW LEVELS...SO THERE COULD BE A LITTLE BIT OF SNOW
LEFTOVER MID-LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN MA BEFORE THINGS END BY
EARLY EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO QUICKLY DROP OFF DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS MAY CAUSE ANY UNTREATED ROADS TO BE SLIPPERY
FOR THE EVENING COMMUTE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...

LONGWAVE SCALE CONTINUES TO SHOW BUILDING RIDGE IN THE WEST AND
DIGGING TROUGH IN THE EAST...POINTING TO WARM TREND WEST AND COOLING
EAST. SMALLER SCALE CONTINUES TO SHOW A THREE-RING CIRCUS OF
SHORTWAVES EITHER AFFECTING OR WITH POTENTIAL TO AFFECT OUR WEATHER
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.  THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE WITH TWO
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN UPPER TROUGH TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY
WHERE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE SHORTWAVES COULD OCCUR.

MODEL MASS FIELDS ARE SIMILAR THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS ALSO AGREE
ON TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS...ONE WELL OFFSHORE MONDAY AND A SECOND CLOSE
TO SHORE TUESDAY. BUT ALL SHOW DIFFERING SCENARIOS FOR HOW THESE
SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BEST CONFIDENCE IN
HANDLING THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEMS IS WITH THE GEFS /ENSEMBLES/

THE DAILIES...

TONIGHT-SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

COASTAL LOW MOVES OFF THROUGH NOVA SCOTIA AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE EASTERN USA.  EXPECT DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLY COLD
TEMPERATURES. CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WIND OVER FRESH SNOW COVER
MAY LEAD TO COOLER TEMPS TONIGHT THAN INDICATED BY GUIDANCE. WITH
DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS AND WINDS BECOMING LIGHT...WE BUMPED
GUIDANCE DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES.  ON SATURDAY WITH WINDS ALOFT
SHIFTING SOUTHWEST...THE MIXED LAYER SHOULD REACH AROUND 950 MB.
TEMPS AT THAT LEVEL WOULD SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S.

SUNDAY...MODERATE-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
CROSS THE NORTHEAST USA. THE GFS PUSHES THE FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE DAY WHILE THE ECMWF SEEMS TO LOSE THE FRONT
IN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. LIMITED MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS SUGGEST JUST
A FEW CLOUDS BUT NO PRECIP.  HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM QUEBEC
INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH COLDER AIR ARRIVING BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE LOWER
40S. THE COLDER AIR ARRIVING SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BRING MIN TEMPS
ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN ON SATURDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE...AS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED...GENERATES A
SURFACE LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST USA COAST. THIS COASTAL LOW THEN MOVES
NORTHEAST AND PASSES WELL OFFSHORE OF OUR AREA. NORMALLY THIS PATH
WOULD KEEP PCPN OFFSHORE. HOWEVER WITH THE HIGH TO THE NORTH WE
COULD DEVELOP SUFFICIENT MARINE FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MAINE TO BRING
CLOUDS AND PCPN MONDAY ESPECIALLY IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. TEMPERATURE
PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT MAINLY SNOW...BUT WITH POTENTIAL RAIN/SNOW
MIX NEAR THE COAST.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES ASHORE FROM THE PACIFIC TONIGHT AND CROSSES
TO THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS DIGS AN UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE MIDWEST AND LEADS TO COASTAL LOW PRESSURE FORMING ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THE LOW THEN MOVES UP
THE COAST TUESDAY AND PASSES OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND. EACH MODEL
HANDLES THIS COASTAL LOW DIFFERENTLY...SO CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE
SOLUTION IS LOW. CONFIDENCE SHOULD INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AS
THE SHORTWAVE MOVES FEET-DRY ON THE PACIFIC COAST.

BEST DYNAMICS UNDER THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE SUPPORTING UPPER JET
MOVES OFF TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT...SO BEST CHANCE
OF PCPN SHOULD BE ON TUESDAY THEN DIMINISH TO SHOWERS TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. PTYPE AGAIN FAVORS SNOW INLAND AND SNOW OR A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ALONG THE COAST.

UPPER TROUGH/COLD POOL FROM THE MIDWEST LINGERS OVER THE NORTHEAST
USA THROUGH THURSDAY MAINTAINING SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

THROUGH 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...TIMING MAY BE OFF A BIT.
AREAS OF LIFR/IFR IN HEAVY SNOW AND LOW CIGS CONTINUE THROUGH
ABOUT 20Z EVERYWHERE...THEN GIVE WAY TO VFR FROM W-E THROUGH 00Z.
STRONG N WINDS WITH GUSTS 20-30 KT OVER THE INTERIOR AND 30-40 KT
ALONG THE CAPE/ISLAND.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. ANY UNTREATED AND WET RUNWAYS WILL FREEZE AS
TEMPERATURES DROP RAPIDLY. WIND GUSTS REMAIN N-NW BUT DIMINISH
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

TOMORROW...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. WINDS SHIFT TO THE SW...BUT SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 10 KT
OR LESS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...TIMING MAY BE OFF A
BIT.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS....TIMING MAY BE OFF A
BIT.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW OR
RAIN/SNOW MIX. NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING 20-30 KNOTS ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY... NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS PICK UP THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH
GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 35 KT ALONG THE SOUTHERN WATERS...AND 35-45
KT ON THE EASTERN WATERS. GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY. SEAS BECOME HIGH...MAINLY 8-10 FT ON THE SE OCEAN
WATERS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A PERIOD OF RAIN/FOG ACROSS THE WATERS
WITH A POSSIBLE CHANGE TO SNOW NEAR THE EASTERN SHORELINES.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...

TONIGHT...DIMINISHING NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 30 KNOTS EARLY AND
POPPING UNDER 25 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS AS HIGH AS 14 FEET ON
THE OUTER WATERS WILL SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT TO 5-7 FEET BY MORNING.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR MOST WATERS DURING THE
NIGHT.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY BELOW 25 KNOTS BUT
GUSTING NEAR 25 KNOTS EAST OF CAPE ANN SATURDAY NIGHT. SEAS
DIMINISH SATURDAY BUT THEN RETURN TO NEAR 5 FEET EAST OF CAPE ANN
SATURDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY BUT WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE
BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...NORTH WINDS TURN NORTHEAST AND INCREASE TO AT LEAST
NEAR 30 KNOTS EACH DAY. DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUAL BEHAVIOR OF THE
TWO COASTAL LOW PRESSURE AREAS PASSING BY...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
WINDS TO REACH 35-40 KNOTS AT THIS TIME. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR GALES AT
THIS TIME...BUT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE. WINDS TURN BACK TO NORTHWEST
TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MAZ019>021.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MAZ004>007-009-011>018-026.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MAZ002-003-008-010.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MAZ022>024.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MAZ022.
RI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR RIZ007.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     RIZ001>006.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231>235-237-
     250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     236-251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...DOODY
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/DOODY
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KOKX 051549
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1049 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND REMAINS OVER THE
REGION SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE GIVES WAY TO PASSING OFFSHORE LOW
MONDAY...AND ANOTHER LOW THAT TRACKS CLOSER TO THE AREA TUESDAY.
LINGERING TROUGH IMPACTS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DEEPENING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK JUST SOUTHEAST OF 40/70
LAT/LON TROUGH MIDDAY...THEN CONTINUING TO TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST
INTO THE GULF OF MAINE THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW WILL END VERY SHORTLY
OVER THE FAR NW ZONES...AND SHOULD END NEAR NOON FOR THE
NE NJ/NYC/LOWER HUD WITH UP TO AN ADDITIONAL INCH POSSIBLE THERE.

ACROSS LI/CT...HEAVY WET SNOW BANDING ON THE NW SIDE OF THE
LOW...JUST EAST OF THE NYC METRO...WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE NE OF
LI/CT THROUGH THE EARLY/MID AFTERNOON. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2
INCH PER HOUR ARE OCCURRING UNDER THIS BAND AS IT PUSHES EAST.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS
LI AND CT...WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS EAST. BASED ON 4 TO 7 INCHES THAT
HAVE ALREADY FALLEN ACROSS LI/CT...A GENERAL 6 TO 10 INCHES OF
SNOW IS EXPECTED IN THE WARNED AREA...WITH LOCALLY 1 FT AMOUNTS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SE CT AND
HILLS OF SUFFOLK COUNTY.

IN ADDITION...THE HEAVY WET SNOW COMBINED WITH MODERATE NORTHERLY
WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS INTO THE 30S...WILL LIKELY CAUSE
DOWNED TREE LIMBS AND POWER LINES.

WINTER STORM WARNING CONTINUE INTO THIS AFTERNOON FOR LI AND CT.

EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN IN THE LOWER AND MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN TONIGHT WITH THE UPPER FLOW NEARLY
ZONAL AS A PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM DOMINATES. DURING SATURDAY
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT AND IS SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AFTER A COOL DOWN TODAY TEMPERATURES MODERATE
AS WEAK WARM ADVECTION SETS UP TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SPLIT FLOW ALOFT AS SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY...AND NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
TRACKS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. FAST ON IT/S HEELS IS NEXT SHORTWAVE
THAT WILL TRACK TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE THIS
WEEKEND...AMPLIFYING AS IT DOES SO. THIS ELONGATED TROUGH SLOWLY
MOVES EAST...WITH REINFORCING ENERGY DIVING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA
AND EVENTUALLY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH BY MID WEEK.

AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE AREA GIVES WAY TO
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SE COAST. THIS LOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH
SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH. THIS LOW TRACKS WELL TO THE SE OF THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK BY MONDAY. UPSTREAM LOW MOVES OUT OF THE UPPER MID
WEST TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY...EVENTUALLY STRENGTHENING OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST/DELMARVA VCNTY BY TUESDAY. NORLUN TROUGH EXTENDS
NW...WITH WEAK TROUGH LINGERING ACROSS THE NE INTO WED.

AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...DRY INITIALLY WITH A POSSIBLE GLANCING
BLOW OF LIGHT SNOW MONDAY WITH PASSING OFFSHORE LOW. THEN LIGHT SNOW
MAY DEVELOP NEARBY AHEAD OF TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WITH POSSIBLE
HIGHEST COVERAGE TUESDAY AS THE SFC LOW PASSES CLOSEST TO THE AREA.
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT AND WED WITH SFC
TROUGH/UPPER TROUGH/CYCLONIC FLOW IN VICINITY.

TOO EARLY FOR ANY SNOW ACCUMS...WITH BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
ACCUMULATING SNOW MON NIGHT AND TUE. MODEL DETAILS DO DIFFER ON QPF
AMOUNTS. COULD BE SOME PTYPE ISSUES DURING THE DAYTIME AS WELL.

OVERALL MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPS FOLLOWED FAIRLY CLOSELY...WHICH WAS IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT FROM PREV FCST ANYWAY.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND TODAY FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT.

SNOW CONTINUES THIS MORNING...ENDING NEAR 17-18Z FOR THE CITY
TERMINALS...AND ENDING BY AROUND 21Z OVER KGON.

IFR TO MVFR CONDS IMPROVING TO VFR SHORTLY AFTER SNOW ENDS.

N WINDS BACK NW THIS AFTN. GUSTS 25-30KT THRU AT LEAST MID-
AFTN...DIMINISHING LATE.

ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS STARTING 1430Z:
KSWF/TEB...TRACE
KEWR...TRACE
KHPN...1 INCH
KLGA...1-2 INCHES
KJFK...2 INCHES
KBDR...2-3 INCHES
KISP...3 INCHES
KGON...4 INCHES


   NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TEMPO MVFR CIGS 18-19Z MIGHT NOT OCCUR. GUSTS
MAY END A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST THIS EVE.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TEMPO MVFR CIGS 18-19Z MIGHT NOT OCCUR.
GUSTS MAY END A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST THIS EVE.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TEMPO MVFR CIGS 17-18Z MIGHT NOT OCCUR. GUSTS
MAY END A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST THIS EVE.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TEMPO MVFR CIGS 17-18Z MIGHT NOT OCCUR.
GUSTS MAY END A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST THIS EVE.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TEMPO MVFR CIGS 18-19Z MIGHT NOT OCCUR.
GUSTS MAY END A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST THIS EVE.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CIGS MIGHT OCCUR AN HOUR OR TWO EARLIER
THAN FORECAST. TEMPO MVFR CIGS 20-21Z MIGHT NOT OCCUR. GUSTS MAY END
A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST THIS EVE.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.SATURDAY-SUNDAY...VFR.
.MONDAY...MAINLY VFR EARLY...WITH MVFR OR LOWER AS SNOW BECOMES
LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT.
.TUESDAY...MVFR OR LOWER WITH SNOW LIKELY...POSSIBLY MIXED PTYPE
DURING THE AFTN AT THE COAST...TAPERING OFF LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECAST WINDS AND WAVES ON TRACK.

LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE WATERS TODAY WITH A
STRONG AND GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW. MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS
GUSTS ON THE OCEAN WATERS TODAY WITH SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WATERS. WITH LOW PRESSURE PASSING
QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST THIS EVENING AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS AND WIND SUBSIDE. THERE MAY BE
SOME SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ON THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS INTO THIS
EVENING...AND MAYBE THE FAR EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND AND
BAYS...OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...SMALL CRAFT SEAS REMAIN ON THE OCEAN INTO
TONIGHT.

SW WINDS SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL SHIFT TO THE N...THEN NE
AS HIGH PRESSURE GIVES WAY TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE THAT IS
EXPECTED TO PASS WELL SE OF THE WATERS MONDAY.

ANOTHER LOW PASSES CLOSER TO THE WATERS TUESDAY. AS SUCH...EXPECT
INCREASING WINDS BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ALONG WITH BUILDING SEAS BY
THAT TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SNOWFALL WILL WIND DOWN THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH AN
ADDITIONAL 3 TO 6 INCHES EXPECTED ACROSS LI AND CT THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED.

WIDESPREAD MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY THRU
TUESDAY. MOST OF THAT COULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW WITH NO
HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS. OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     CTZ006>008-010>012.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CTZ005-
     009.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NYZ078>081.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NYZ068>075-
     176-178.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ177-
     179.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NJZ004-006-
     103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-
     335-338-340-345.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NV
NEAR TERM...NV
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...NV



000
FXUS61 KOKX 051549
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1049 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND REMAINS OVER THE
REGION SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE GIVES WAY TO PASSING OFFSHORE LOW
MONDAY...AND ANOTHER LOW THAT TRACKS CLOSER TO THE AREA TUESDAY.
LINGERING TROUGH IMPACTS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DEEPENING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK JUST SOUTHEAST OF 40/70
LAT/LON TROUGH MIDDAY...THEN CONTINUING TO TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST
INTO THE GULF OF MAINE THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW WILL END VERY SHORTLY
OVER THE FAR NW ZONES...AND SHOULD END NEAR NOON FOR THE
NE NJ/NYC/LOWER HUD WITH UP TO AN ADDITIONAL INCH POSSIBLE THERE.

ACROSS LI/CT...HEAVY WET SNOW BANDING ON THE NW SIDE OF THE
LOW...JUST EAST OF THE NYC METRO...WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE NE OF
LI/CT THROUGH THE EARLY/MID AFTERNOON. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2
INCH PER HOUR ARE OCCURRING UNDER THIS BAND AS IT PUSHES EAST.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS
LI AND CT...WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS EAST. BASED ON 4 TO 7 INCHES THAT
HAVE ALREADY FALLEN ACROSS LI/CT...A GENERAL 6 TO 10 INCHES OF
SNOW IS EXPECTED IN THE WARNED AREA...WITH LOCALLY 1 FT AMOUNTS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SE CT AND
HILLS OF SUFFOLK COUNTY.

IN ADDITION...THE HEAVY WET SNOW COMBINED WITH MODERATE NORTHERLY
WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS INTO THE 30S...WILL LIKELY CAUSE
DOWNED TREE LIMBS AND POWER LINES.

WINTER STORM WARNING CONTINUE INTO THIS AFTERNOON FOR LI AND CT.

EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN IN THE LOWER AND MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN TONIGHT WITH THE UPPER FLOW NEARLY
ZONAL AS A PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM DOMINATES. DURING SATURDAY
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT AND IS SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AFTER A COOL DOWN TODAY TEMPERATURES MODERATE
AS WEAK WARM ADVECTION SETS UP TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SPLIT FLOW ALOFT AS SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY...AND NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
TRACKS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. FAST ON IT/S HEELS IS NEXT SHORTWAVE
THAT WILL TRACK TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE THIS
WEEKEND...AMPLIFYING AS IT DOES SO. THIS ELONGATED TROUGH SLOWLY
MOVES EAST...WITH REINFORCING ENERGY DIVING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA
AND EVENTUALLY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH BY MID WEEK.

AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE AREA GIVES WAY TO
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SE COAST. THIS LOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH
SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH. THIS LOW TRACKS WELL TO THE SE OF THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK BY MONDAY. UPSTREAM LOW MOVES OUT OF THE UPPER MID
WEST TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY...EVENTUALLY STRENGTHENING OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST/DELMARVA VCNTY BY TUESDAY. NORLUN TROUGH EXTENDS
NW...WITH WEAK TROUGH LINGERING ACROSS THE NE INTO WED.

AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...DRY INITIALLY WITH A POSSIBLE GLANCING
BLOW OF LIGHT SNOW MONDAY WITH PASSING OFFSHORE LOW. THEN LIGHT SNOW
MAY DEVELOP NEARBY AHEAD OF TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WITH POSSIBLE
HIGHEST COVERAGE TUESDAY AS THE SFC LOW PASSES CLOSEST TO THE AREA.
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT AND WED WITH SFC
TROUGH/UPPER TROUGH/CYCLONIC FLOW IN VICINITY.

TOO EARLY FOR ANY SNOW ACCUMS...WITH BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
ACCUMULATING SNOW MON NIGHT AND TUE. MODEL DETAILS DO DIFFER ON QPF
AMOUNTS. COULD BE SOME PTYPE ISSUES DURING THE DAYTIME AS WELL.

OVERALL MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPS FOLLOWED FAIRLY CLOSELY...WHICH WAS IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT FROM PREV FCST ANYWAY.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND TODAY FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT.

SNOW CONTINUES THIS MORNING...ENDING NEAR 17-18Z FOR THE CITY
TERMINALS...AND ENDING BY AROUND 21Z OVER KGON.

IFR TO MVFR CONDS IMPROVING TO VFR SHORTLY AFTER SNOW ENDS.

N WINDS BACK NW THIS AFTN. GUSTS 25-30KT THRU AT LEAST MID-
AFTN...DIMINISHING LATE.

ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS STARTING 1430Z:
KSWF/TEB...TRACE
KEWR...TRACE
KHPN...1 INCH
KLGA...1-2 INCHES
KJFK...2 INCHES
KBDR...2-3 INCHES
KISP...3 INCHES
KGON...4 INCHES


   NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TEMPO MVFR CIGS 18-19Z MIGHT NOT OCCUR. GUSTS
MAY END A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST THIS EVE.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TEMPO MVFR CIGS 18-19Z MIGHT NOT OCCUR.
GUSTS MAY END A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST THIS EVE.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TEMPO MVFR CIGS 17-18Z MIGHT NOT OCCUR. GUSTS
MAY END A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST THIS EVE.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TEMPO MVFR CIGS 17-18Z MIGHT NOT OCCUR.
GUSTS MAY END A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST THIS EVE.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TEMPO MVFR CIGS 18-19Z MIGHT NOT OCCUR.
GUSTS MAY END A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST THIS EVE.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CIGS MIGHT OCCUR AN HOUR OR TWO EARLIER
THAN FORECAST. TEMPO MVFR CIGS 20-21Z MIGHT NOT OCCUR. GUSTS MAY END
A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST THIS EVE.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.SATURDAY-SUNDAY...VFR.
.MONDAY...MAINLY VFR EARLY...WITH MVFR OR LOWER AS SNOW BECOMES
LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT.
.TUESDAY...MVFR OR LOWER WITH SNOW LIKELY...POSSIBLY MIXED PTYPE
DURING THE AFTN AT THE COAST...TAPERING OFF LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECAST WINDS AND WAVES ON TRACK.

LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE WATERS TODAY WITH A
STRONG AND GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW. MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS
GUSTS ON THE OCEAN WATERS TODAY WITH SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WATERS. WITH LOW PRESSURE PASSING
QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST THIS EVENING AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS AND WIND SUBSIDE. THERE MAY BE
SOME SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ON THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS INTO THIS
EVENING...AND MAYBE THE FAR EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND AND
BAYS...OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...SMALL CRAFT SEAS REMAIN ON THE OCEAN INTO
TONIGHT.

SW WINDS SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL SHIFT TO THE N...THEN NE
AS HIGH PRESSURE GIVES WAY TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE THAT IS
EXPECTED TO PASS WELL SE OF THE WATERS MONDAY.

ANOTHER LOW PASSES CLOSER TO THE WATERS TUESDAY. AS SUCH...EXPECT
INCREASING WINDS BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ALONG WITH BUILDING SEAS BY
THAT TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SNOWFALL WILL WIND DOWN THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH AN
ADDITIONAL 3 TO 6 INCHES EXPECTED ACROSS LI AND CT THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED.

WIDESPREAD MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY THRU
TUESDAY. MOST OF THAT COULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW WITH NO
HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS. OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     CTZ006>008-010>012.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CTZ005-
     009.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NYZ078>081.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NYZ068>075-
     176-178.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ177-
     179.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NJZ004-006-
     103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-
     335-338-340-345.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NV
NEAR TERM...NV
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...NV




000
FXUS61 KOKX 051549
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1049 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND REMAINS OVER THE
REGION SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE GIVES WAY TO PASSING OFFSHORE LOW
MONDAY...AND ANOTHER LOW THAT TRACKS CLOSER TO THE AREA TUESDAY.
LINGERING TROUGH IMPACTS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DEEPENING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK JUST SOUTHEAST OF 40/70
LAT/LON TROUGH MIDDAY...THEN CONTINUING TO TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST
INTO THE GULF OF MAINE THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW WILL END VERY SHORTLY
OVER THE FAR NW ZONES...AND SHOULD END NEAR NOON FOR THE
NE NJ/NYC/LOWER HUD WITH UP TO AN ADDITIONAL INCH POSSIBLE THERE.

ACROSS LI/CT...HEAVY WET SNOW BANDING ON THE NW SIDE OF THE
LOW...JUST EAST OF THE NYC METRO...WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE NE OF
LI/CT THROUGH THE EARLY/MID AFTERNOON. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2
INCH PER HOUR ARE OCCURRING UNDER THIS BAND AS IT PUSHES EAST.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS
LI AND CT...WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS EAST. BASED ON 4 TO 7 INCHES THAT
HAVE ALREADY FALLEN ACROSS LI/CT...A GENERAL 6 TO 10 INCHES OF
SNOW IS EXPECTED IN THE WARNED AREA...WITH LOCALLY 1 FT AMOUNTS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SE CT AND
HILLS OF SUFFOLK COUNTY.

IN ADDITION...THE HEAVY WET SNOW COMBINED WITH MODERATE NORTHERLY
WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS INTO THE 30S...WILL LIKELY CAUSE
DOWNED TREE LIMBS AND POWER LINES.

WINTER STORM WARNING CONTINUE INTO THIS AFTERNOON FOR LI AND CT.

EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN IN THE LOWER AND MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN TONIGHT WITH THE UPPER FLOW NEARLY
ZONAL AS A PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM DOMINATES. DURING SATURDAY
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT AND IS SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AFTER A COOL DOWN TODAY TEMPERATURES MODERATE
AS WEAK WARM ADVECTION SETS UP TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SPLIT FLOW ALOFT AS SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY...AND NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
TRACKS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. FAST ON IT/S HEELS IS NEXT SHORTWAVE
THAT WILL TRACK TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE THIS
WEEKEND...AMPLIFYING AS IT DOES SO. THIS ELONGATED TROUGH SLOWLY
MOVES EAST...WITH REINFORCING ENERGY DIVING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA
AND EVENTUALLY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH BY MID WEEK.

AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE AREA GIVES WAY TO
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SE COAST. THIS LOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH
SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH. THIS LOW TRACKS WELL TO THE SE OF THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK BY MONDAY. UPSTREAM LOW MOVES OUT OF THE UPPER MID
WEST TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY...EVENTUALLY STRENGTHENING OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST/DELMARVA VCNTY BY TUESDAY. NORLUN TROUGH EXTENDS
NW...WITH WEAK TROUGH LINGERING ACROSS THE NE INTO WED.

AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...DRY INITIALLY WITH A POSSIBLE GLANCING
BLOW OF LIGHT SNOW MONDAY WITH PASSING OFFSHORE LOW. THEN LIGHT SNOW
MAY DEVELOP NEARBY AHEAD OF TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WITH POSSIBLE
HIGHEST COVERAGE TUESDAY AS THE SFC LOW PASSES CLOSEST TO THE AREA.
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT AND WED WITH SFC
TROUGH/UPPER TROUGH/CYCLONIC FLOW IN VICINITY.

TOO EARLY FOR ANY SNOW ACCUMS...WITH BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
ACCUMULATING SNOW MON NIGHT AND TUE. MODEL DETAILS DO DIFFER ON QPF
AMOUNTS. COULD BE SOME PTYPE ISSUES DURING THE DAYTIME AS WELL.

OVERALL MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPS FOLLOWED FAIRLY CLOSELY...WHICH WAS IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT FROM PREV FCST ANYWAY.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND TODAY FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT.

SNOW CONTINUES THIS MORNING...ENDING NEAR 17-18Z FOR THE CITY
TERMINALS...AND ENDING BY AROUND 21Z OVER KGON.

IFR TO MVFR CONDS IMPROVING TO VFR SHORTLY AFTER SNOW ENDS.

N WINDS BACK NW THIS AFTN. GUSTS 25-30KT THRU AT LEAST MID-
AFTN...DIMINISHING LATE.

ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS STARTING 1430Z:
KSWF/TEB...TRACE
KEWR...TRACE
KHPN...1 INCH
KLGA...1-2 INCHES
KJFK...2 INCHES
KBDR...2-3 INCHES
KISP...3 INCHES
KGON...4 INCHES


   NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TEMPO MVFR CIGS 18-19Z MIGHT NOT OCCUR. GUSTS
MAY END A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST THIS EVE.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TEMPO MVFR CIGS 18-19Z MIGHT NOT OCCUR.
GUSTS MAY END A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST THIS EVE.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TEMPO MVFR CIGS 17-18Z MIGHT NOT OCCUR. GUSTS
MAY END A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST THIS EVE.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TEMPO MVFR CIGS 17-18Z MIGHT NOT OCCUR.
GUSTS MAY END A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST THIS EVE.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TEMPO MVFR CIGS 18-19Z MIGHT NOT OCCUR.
GUSTS MAY END A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST THIS EVE.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CIGS MIGHT OCCUR AN HOUR OR TWO EARLIER
THAN FORECAST. TEMPO MVFR CIGS 20-21Z MIGHT NOT OCCUR. GUSTS MAY END
A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST THIS EVE.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.SATURDAY-SUNDAY...VFR.
.MONDAY...MAINLY VFR EARLY...WITH MVFR OR LOWER AS SNOW BECOMES
LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT.
.TUESDAY...MVFR OR LOWER WITH SNOW LIKELY...POSSIBLY MIXED PTYPE
DURING THE AFTN AT THE COAST...TAPERING OFF LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECAST WINDS AND WAVES ON TRACK.

LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE WATERS TODAY WITH A
STRONG AND GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW. MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS
GUSTS ON THE OCEAN WATERS TODAY WITH SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WATERS. WITH LOW PRESSURE PASSING
QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST THIS EVENING AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS AND WIND SUBSIDE. THERE MAY BE
SOME SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ON THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS INTO THIS
EVENING...AND MAYBE THE FAR EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND AND
BAYS...OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...SMALL CRAFT SEAS REMAIN ON THE OCEAN INTO
TONIGHT.

SW WINDS SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL SHIFT TO THE N...THEN NE
AS HIGH PRESSURE GIVES WAY TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE THAT IS
EXPECTED TO PASS WELL SE OF THE WATERS MONDAY.

ANOTHER LOW PASSES CLOSER TO THE WATERS TUESDAY. AS SUCH...EXPECT
INCREASING WINDS BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ALONG WITH BUILDING SEAS BY
THAT TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SNOWFALL WILL WIND DOWN THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH AN
ADDITIONAL 3 TO 6 INCHES EXPECTED ACROSS LI AND CT THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED.

WIDESPREAD MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY THRU
TUESDAY. MOST OF THAT COULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW WITH NO
HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS. OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     CTZ006>008-010>012.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CTZ005-
     009.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NYZ078>081.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NYZ068>075-
     176-178.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ177-
     179.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NJZ004-006-
     103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-
     335-338-340-345.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NV
NEAR TERM...NV
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...NV




000
FXUS61 KALY 051544
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1044 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD PASSING SOUTH OF CAPE COD THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING A
LIGHT TO POSSIBLY MODERATE SNOWFALL TO AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT THIS MORNING. HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BEGIN
TO BUILD IN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD DOMINATE OUR WEATHER
INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR LITCHFIELD COUNTY FOR SNOW.

A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SOUTHEAST OF CAPE MAY WILL TRACK NORTHEAST
TO SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN PASS
SOUTHEAST OF NOVA SCOTIA THIS EVENING. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OF
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE TACONICS AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TO EXIT AROUND NOON...SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS BY THE TIME THE SNOW
TAPERS OFF ARE EXPECTED TO BE 2 TO 5 INCHES IN NW CT AND THE
EASTERN BERKSHIRES...AND 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE
TACONICS...WESTERN BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.

SUNSHINE WILL BECOME PARTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FA THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS NORTH AND EAST
AWAY FROM OUR AREA. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S WITH SOME LOWER 40S POSSIBLE IN THE HUDSON
VALLEY WHICH WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH SUN WE GET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
INTERVALS OF CLOUDS AND CLEARING AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
AND BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES STAY RELATIVELY STRONG.
SURFACE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BUT COULD STAY STEADY AND LIGHT LONG
ENOUGH TO PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO MUCH. LOWS IN THE
UPPER TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS TO LOWER 20S IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
AREAS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OF OUR REGION AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION
BEGINS. STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WELL
SOUTH OF OUR REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE SOME NORTHERN STREAM
ENERGY TRACKS NORTH OF THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM
UPPER ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY...WITH SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE IN
WESTERN AREAS SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY...PARTIALLY DUE ALSO TO
BOUNDARY LAYER WIND FLOW OFF THE GREAT LAKES BUT THERE SHOULD BE
SOME DECENT FRONTOGENESIS AND ASSOCIATED FORCING AS THE COLD
FRONT TRACKS THROUGH.

SO...INTERVALS OF CLOUDS AND SUN SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH
SURFACE FLOW FORM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST...BUT BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW FROM MAINLY THE WEST...COULD HELP ENHANCE SOME MIXING ACROSS
THE REGION. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. HIGH
SUNDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S...BUT AROUND 30 TO THE MID 30S IN
NORTHERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES COULD FALL SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN
THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE MORE
UNSETTLED...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL INITIALLY TRENDING TOWARDS
BELOW NORMAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING WHETHER OUR REGION WILL BE AFFECTED BY A POTENTIAL COASTAL
STORM EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE PERIOD STARTS OUT ON MONDAY WITH A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS. MODELS INDICATING A SPRAWLING UPPER LOW
WILL BE POSITIONED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST...WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST. AN EASTERLY LOW LEVEL
FETCH FROM THE ATLANTIC MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SOME SPOTTY
LIGHT SNOW...BUT GENERALLY DRY AIR IN PLACE SHOULD PRECLUDE MUCH IN
THE WAY OF MEASURABLE SNOW. WILL ONLY MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT
THIS TIME. WILL BE WATCHING A POWERFUL OCEAN STORM QUICKLY TRACKING
NORTHEAST WELL OFF THE COAST...BUT THIS SYSTEM SHOULD NOT HAVE ANY
IMPACT ON OUR REGION.

THE MORE INTERESTING PERIOD WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST AND POTENTIALLY STARTS TO
INTERACT WITH ENERGY MOVING NORTH ALONG THE COAST. A SECONDARY LOW
IS EXPECTED TO FORM SOMEWHERE SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WHERE AND HOW QUICKLY PHASING CAN OCCUR WILL
DETERMINE WHETHER THIS WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT STORM OR JUST LIGHT
SNOW FOR OUR AREA. LATEST MODEL TRENDS ARE TOWARDS THE LATTER
SCENARIO...SUPPORTED BY THE 00Z ECMWF/CMC. THERE ARE SOME GEFS
MEMBER THAT HAVE SIGNIFICANT SNOW...ALONG WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS
MAINLY SOUTH OF ALBANY...BUT THESE SEEM TO BE THE OUTLIERS AT THIS
TIME. LATER PHASING MAY BE PLAUSIBLE CONSIDERING THE LACK OF
BAROCLINICITY THAT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ALONG THE COAST IN WAKE OF
MONDAY/S OCEAN STORM. STILL A LOT OF TIME BEFORE THE EVENT DRAWS
NEAR WITH POTENTIAL FOR MORE FORECAST CHANGES. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE
TO MENTION CHANCE POPS DURING THIS TIME.

COLDER AIR STARTS TO WORK IN ON WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG AND
PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA. A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL POSITIONED ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES ACTUALLY
BECOMING BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN AREA LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE DELMARVA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD...PASSING JUST SOUTH OF CAPE COD THIS AFTERNOON
BRINGING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT THIS MORNING. HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN
DURING THE AFTERNOON...ENDING THE THREAT FOR SNOW.

VERY DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS RESULTING IN A VERY SHARP GRADIENT
TO THE SNOWFALL. WILL TAKE OUT MENTION OF SNOW AT KALB WITH ONLY
VCSH THERE. WILL MENTION LIGHT SNOW WITH MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS
AND OCCASIONAL IFR IN TEMPO GROUPS AT KPOU/KPSF UNTIL 15Z. THE
THREAT OF SNOW WILL END BY 15Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING
THEREAFTER.

WINDS WILL BE NORTH-NORTHWEST AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND
20-25 KTS DEVELOPING BY THIS AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE THIS EVENING AFTER DARK.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO CONCERNS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS AS ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT OR IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

THE THIRD WINTER SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE SEASON HAS BEEN
ISSUED.

HIGHLIGHTS...REFER TO THE PRODUCTS FOR DETAILS (ALBESFALY):

DUE TO BELOW NORMAL SNOW COVER AND RIVER ICE...POTENTIAL FOR
SNOWMELT AND ICE JAM FLOODING IS LOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

ALTHOUGH WATER SUPPLY LEVELS ARE NOT A CONCERN AT THE MOMENT...THERE
IS CURRENTLY VERY LITTLE SNOW WATER AVAILABLE FOR RESERVOIR RECHARGE
ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. IT WILL TAKE A STEADY SUPPLY OF RAIN AND
SNOW THROUGH SPRING INTO SUMMER FOR RESERVOIRS TO MAINTAIN ADEQUATE
LEVELS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...11/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...NAS




000
FXUS61 KBOX 051501
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1001 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT STALLING OFFSHORE WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR LOW PRESSURE
TO TRAVEL ALONG AFTER SUNRISE. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL DELIVER A
MIX OF RAIN CHANGING TO HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BRINGS DRY WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH A WEAK
COLD FRONT SUNDAY MAY BRING A FEW CLOUDS. A COMPLEX COASTAL STORM
SHOULD AFFECT THE REGION LATER MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON/...
10 AM UPDATE...
KBOX CC DATA SHOWS A NEARLY STALLING RAIN/SNOW LINE JUST OVER THE
CC CANAL AT THIS TIME. IF ANYTHING IT/S LIKELY TO PIVOT TO A MORE
S-N ORIENTATION. OTHERWISE SNOW FOR MOST EVERYONE AT THIS POINT
EVEN WITH MARGINAL SFC TEMPS NEAR OR EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING.
RATIOS HAVE BEEN LOW SO FAR EVERYWHERE OUTSIDE OF WRN MA/CT WHERE
THE CHANGEOVER OCCURRED EARLIER AND DWPTS CONTINUE TO DROP.

THE KEY NOW IS TO MONITOR STRONG BANDING OCCURRING THROUGH
CENTRAL AND WESTERN MA/CT CONNECTED TO A BAND AROUND H6-H5 OR
RIGHT WITHIN THE -12C TO -18C GROWTH REGIME. HENCE WE ARE SEEING
1-2 INCH/HOUR RATES IN AN AREA OF 30DBZ. THIS BAND WILL CONTINUE
TO PIVOT SLIGHTLY THEN SLIDE E THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...STILL EXPECT GOOD ACCUMS OVER THE NEXT 3-6
HOURS FOR CENTRAL MA/CT AS WELL AS RI AND ERN MA A BIT LATER. AS
SUCH HAVE UPPED TOTALS ACROSS THE REGION AND NOW FEATURE A BAND OF
8+ INCHES FROM NE CT-NRN RI AND CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF
NORTHEASTERN MA. MORE REFINEMENT LIKELY TO COME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

*** WESTWARD TREND IN THE SYSTEM HAS ALLOWED FOR WARNINGS AND
  ADVISORIES TO BE EXPANDED ***

BUSY NIGHT AS WE CONTINUE TO EVALUATE THE LATEST DATA AND TRENDS FOR
THIS UPCOMING WINTER SYSTEM. PRECIP SHIELD CONTINUES TO MOVE
WESTWARD AS MID-LEVEL TROUGH STRENGTHENS. GULF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
POOL INTO THE REGION ALLOWING FOR PWATS TO BE CLOSE TO AN INCH.
BIGGEST TREND BETWEEN THE 12Z AND 00Z RUNS IS THAT THE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES ITS WESTWARD TREND.

HEAVY PRECIP SWATH OVER NJ AND EASTERN PA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHWARD AND IMPACT WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS. BECAUSE OF THIS
UPSTREAM TREND...HAVE EXPANDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO
INCLUDE ALL OF THE PIONEER VALLEY. ANY PRECIP THAT IS OR WILL FALL
WILL BE SNOW ACROSS THE EAST SLOPE OF THE BERKS AS MESONET SITES ARE
ALREADY REPORTING TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS TREND IS IN LINE WITH THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP
GUIDANCE.

ASIDE FROM THE EXPANSION...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO HEADLINES AT THIS
TIME. HAVE RECEIVED SEVERAL REPORTS OF EITHER SNOW...OR A WINTRY MIX
ACROSS CENTRAL MASS AND INTO CT. THIS IS ALSO IN LINE WITH THE
LATEST DUAL-POL DATA. HIGHER REFLECTIVITY ECHOES ARE STARTING TO
MOVE INTO WINDHAM COUNTY...WHICH WILL BE EITHER A MIX OR JUST SNOW
AS 925 MB TEMPS ARE ALREADY BELOW 32F PER SPC MESO DATA. ANTICIPATE
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS TO BE FAIRLY BUSY WITH RAIN/SNOW MIX
TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST AND SURFACE LOW NEARS.

P-TYPE AND CHANGE OVER TIMING...

MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPILL INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS COASTAL
LOW MOVES ALONG STALLED COLD FRONT. AS MENTIONED EARLIER THE PRECIP
SHIED HAS EXPANDED FARTHER WESTWARD THEN ORIGINALLY FORECAST...WHICH
IS THE LATEST TREND IN ALL OF THE GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE 06Z NAM.
CHANGE OVER HAS ALREADY STARTED TO OCCUR ACROSS SEVERAL LOCATIONS
AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. STILL
CONCERNED ABOUT THE MORNING COMMUTE FOR MANY AREAS WEST OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR WHERE HEAVY WET SNOW WILL BE FALLING. ANTICIPATE THE CHANGE
OVER TO MAKE IT TO SOUTHEASTERN MASS INCLUDING BOS AND PVD CLOSER TO
THE 6-8 AM HOUR. THE CAPE AND ISLANDS WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER AS CAA
WILL TAKE A BIT OF TIME TO REACH THEM. FEEL IT WILL BE CLOSER TO
10AM-NOON. ALTHOUGH SLEET MAY MIX IN DURING THE TRANSITION...BELIEVE
MANY LOCATIONS WILL SWITCH FROM RAIN TO STRAIGHT SNOW.

QPF AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...

HAVE ADJUSTED THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SOME OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.
GENERALLY BELIEVE THAT LOCATIONS WITHIN THE WARNING WILL GET AT
LEAST A SLOPPY 5-7 INCHES OF SNOW. HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL HILLS WITHIN
TOLLAND...WINDHAM...WORCESTER AND PROVIDENCE COUNTIES. MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT FOR QPF. THE BIGGEST ISSUE IS THE BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPS AND THERMAL PROFILES. BELIEVE WE HAVE A GOOD TREND GOING
AT THIS TIME. SOME AREAS IN QUESTION WHICH COULD BE UPGRADED WITHIN
THE WARNING IS SOUTHERN BRISTOL AND PLYMOUTH COUNTIES. HOWEVER THESE
LOCATIONS MAY BE STUCK IN THE MIX LONGER KEEPING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
LOW. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND UPGRADED THE EAST SLOPE OF THE BERK TO AN
ADV AS SNOW IS ALREADY STARTING TO FALL PER WEBCAMS. THE PIONEER AND
CONNECTICUT VALLEY MAY SEE LOWER AMOUNTS AS WELL THANKS TO
SHADOWING. SO EVEN THOUGH SNOW AMOUNTS ARE OUT...THERE STILL COULD
BE SOME CHANGES THANKS TO SOME MESOSCALE ISSUES.

IMPACTS...

DUE TO THE FACT THAT SNOW RATIOS WILL BE LOW WITH THIS STORM...AND
BANDING WITH 1+ INCH/HR RATES ARE POSSIBLE...HEAVY WET SNOW MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED POWER OUTAGES. THIS WILL BE EXACERBATED BY A LLJ AROUND
40 KT WITH THE POTENTIAL TO MIX DOWN SOME OF IT/S MOMENTUM.
THEREFORE...THE COMBINATION OF WIND GUSTS 30-40 MPH AND HEAVY WET
SNOW MAY INCREASE THE RISK.

THE OTHER PRIMARY IMPACT IS THAT THE CHANGE-OVER AND HEAVIEST
PRECIP/SNOW WILL BE OCCURRING DURING THE PEAK HOURS OF THE AM
COMMUTE...WITH LOCALIZED VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AND SLIPPERY
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /2 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE MORE DYNAMIC NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM IN RELATION TO PREVIOUS
PROGS SUGGEST A SLOWER END. ALTHOUGH THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BE
DRYING THE LOW LEVELS...SO THERE COULD BE A LITTLE BIT OF SNOW
LEFTOVER MID-LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN MA BEFORE THINGS END BY
EARLY EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO QUICKLY DROP OFF DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS MAY CAUSE ANY UNTREATED ROADS TO BE SLIPPERY
FOR THE EVENING COMMUTE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...

LONGWAVE SCALE CONTINUES TO SHOW BUILDING RIDGE IN THE WEST AND
DIGGING TROUGH IN THE EAST...POINTING TO WARM TREND WEST AND COOLING
EAST. SMALLER SCALE CONTINUES TO SHOW A THREE-RING CIRCUS OF
SHORTWAVES EITHER AFFECTING OR WITH POTENTIAL TO AFFECT OUR WEATHER
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.  THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE WITH TWO
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN UPPER TROUGH TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY
WHERE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE SHORTWAVES COULD OCCUR.

MODEL MASS FIELDS ARE SIMILAR THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS ALSO AGREE
ON TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS...ONE WELL OFFSHORE MONDAY AND A SECOND CLOSE
TO SHORE TUESDAY. BUT ALL SHOW DIFFERING SCENARIOS FOR HOW THESE
SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BEST CONFIDENCE IN
HANDLING THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEMS IS WITH THE GEFS /ENSEMBLES/

THE DAILIES...

TONIGHT-SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

COASTAL LOW MOVES OFF THROUGH NOVA SCOTIA AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE EASTERN USA.  EXPECT DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLY COLD
TEMPERATURES. CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WIND OVER FRESH SNOW COVER
MAY LEAD TO COOLER TEMPS TONIGHT THAN INDICATED BY GUIDANCE. WITH
DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS AND WINDS BECOMING LIGHT...WE BUMPED
GUIDANCE DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES.  ON SATURDAY WITH WINDS ALOFT
SHIFTING SOUTHWEST...THE MIXED LAYER SHOULD REACH AROUND 950 MB.
TEMPS AT THAT LEVEL WOULD SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S.

SUNDAY...MODERATE-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
CROSS THE NORTHEAST USA. THE GFS PUSHES THE FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE DAY WHILE THE ECMWF SEEMS TO LOSE THE FRONT
IN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. LIMITED MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS SUGGEST JUST
A FEW CLOUDS BUT NO PRECIP.  HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM QUEBEC
INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH COLDER AIR ARRIVING BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE LOWER
40S. THE COLDER AIR ARRIVING SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BRING MIN TEMPS
ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN ON SATURDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE...AS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED...GENERATES A
SURFACE LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST USA COAST. THIS COASTAL LOW THEN MOVES
NORTHEAST AND PASSES WELL OFFSHORE OF OUR AREA. NORMALLY THIS PATH
WOULD KEEP PCPN OFFSHORE. HOWEVER WITH THE HIGH TO THE NORTH WE
COULD DEVELOP SUFFICIENT MARINE FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MAINE TO BRING
CLOUDS AND PCPN MONDAY ESPECIALLY IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. TEMPERATURE
PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT MAINLY SNOW...BUT WITH POTENTIAL RAIN/SNOW
MIX NEAR THE COAST.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES ASHORE FROM THE PACIFIC TONIGHT AND CROSSES
TO THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS DIGS AN UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE MIDWEST AND LEADS TO COASTAL LOW PRESSURE FORMING ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THE LOW THEN MOVES UP
THE COAST TUESDAY AND PASSES OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND. EACH MODEL
HANDLES THIS COASTAL LOW DIFFERENTLY...SO CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE
SOLUTION IS LOW. CONFIDENCE SHOULD INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AS
THE SHORTWAVE MOVES FEET-DRY ON THE PACIFIC COAST.

BEST DYNAMICS UNDER THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE SUPPORTING UPPER JET
MOVES OFF TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT...SO BEST CHANCE
OF PCPN SHOULD BE ON TUESDAY THEN DIMINISH TO SHOWERS TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. PTYPE AGAIN FAVORS SNOW INLAND AND SNOW OR A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ALONG THE COAST.

UPPER TROUGH/COLD POOL FROM THE MIDWEST LINGERS OVER THE NORTHEAST
USA THROUGH THURSDAY MAINTAINING SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

THROUGH 18Z...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST
OF THE TERMINALS. THE CHANGE OVER LINE IS PUSHING THROUGH UUU AND
PYM. THIS LINE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS SWITCHING ALL PRECIP TO SNOW. ANTICIPATE SNOW ACCUMS ON
THE RUNWAYS ESP ORH...BOS AND PVD. GUSTY WINDS AROUND 20-30 KTS
WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP AFTER 15Z.

AFTER 18Z TOMORROW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SNOWS/RAIN COME TO AN END AND VERY QUICK IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
EXPECTED.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW OR
RAIN/SNOW MIX. NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING 20-30 KNOTS ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY... NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS PICK UP THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH
GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 35 KT ALONG THE SOUTHERN WATERS...AND 35-45
KT ON THE EASTERN WATERS. GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY. SEAS BECOME HIGH...MAINLY 8-10 FT ON THE SE OCEAN
WATERS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A PERIOD OF RAIN/FOG ACROSS THE WATERS
WITH A POSSIBLE CHANGE TO SNOW NEAR THE EASTERN SHORELINES.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...

TONIGHT...DIMINISHING NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 30 KNOTS EARLY AND
POPPING UNDER 25 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS AS HIGH AS 14 FEET ON
THE OUTER WATERS WILL SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT TO 5-7 FEET BY MORNING.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR MOST WATERS DURING THE
NIGHT.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY BELOW 25 KNOTS BUT
GUSTING NEAR 25 KNOTS EAST OF CAPE ANN SATURDAY NIGHT. SEAS
DIMINISH SATURDAY BUT THEN RETURN TO NEAR 5 FEET EAST OF CAPE ANN
SATURDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY BUT WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE
BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...NORTH WINDS TURN NORTHEAST AND INCREASE TO AT LEAST
NEAR 30 KNOTS EACH DAY. DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUAL BEHAVIOR OF THE
TWO COASTAL LOW PRESSURE AREAS PASSING BY...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
WINDS TO REACH 35-40 KNOTS AT THIS TIME. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR GALES AT
THIS TIME...BUT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE. WINDS TURN BACK TO NORTHWEST
TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CTZ003-
     004.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     CTZ002.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MAZ019>022.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MAZ004>007-012>018-026.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MAZ002-003-008>011.
RI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     RIZ007.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     RIZ001>006.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231>235-237-
     250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     236-251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...DOODY
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KOKX 051459 CCA
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
959 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND REMAINS OVER THE
REGION SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE GIVES WAY TO PASSING OFFSHORE LOW
MONDAY...AND ANOTHER LOW THAT TRACKS CLOSER TO THE AREA TUESDAY.
LINGERING TROUGH IMPACTS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DEEPENING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WAS APPROX 150 MILES SOUTH OF
MONTAUK 14Z. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST AND
DEEPEN FURTHER THIS MORNING. PCPN TYPE IS NOW SNOW FOR ALL AREAS
AND WILL CONTINUE TO FALL. SNOW WILL END VERY SHORTLY OVER THE FAR
NW ZONES...AND SHOULD END NEAR NOON FOR THE CITY/METRO AREA...AND
FINALLY SHIFT EAST OUT THE CWA LATE THIS AFTN.

BASED ON OBS AND RADAR TRENDS...HAVE EXPANDED WINTER STORM WARNING
WESTWARD TO COVER NASSAU COUNTY AS WELL AS NEW HAVEN AND FAIRFIELD
COUNTIES.

EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN IN THE LOWER AND MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN TONIGHT WITH THE UPPER FLOW NEARLY
ZONAL AS A PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM DOMINATES. DURING SATURDAY
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT AND IS SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AFTER A COOL DOWN TODAY TEMPERATURES MODERATE
AS WEAK WARM ADVECTION SETS UP TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SPLIT FLOW ALOFT AS SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY...AND NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
TRACKS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. FAST ON IT/S HEELS IS NEXT SHORTWAVE
THAT WILL TRACK TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE THIS
WEEKEND...AMPLIFYING AS IT DOES SO. THIS ELONGATED TROUGH SLOWLY
MOVES EAST...WITH REINFORCING ENERGY DIVING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA
AND EVENTUALLY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH BY MID WEEK.

AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE AREA GIVES WAY TO
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SE COAST. THIS LOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH
SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH. THIS LOW TRACKS WELL TO THE SE OF THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK BY MONDAY. UPSTREAM LOW MOVES OUT OF THE UPPER MID
WEST TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY...EVENTUALLY STRENGTHENING OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST/DELMARVA VCNTY BY TUESDAY. NORLUN TROUGH EXTENDS
NW...WITH WEAK TROUGH LINGERING ACROSS THE NE INTO WED.

AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...DRY INITIALLY WITH A POSSIBLE GLANCING
BLOW OF LIGHT SNOW MONDAY WITH PASSING OFFSHORE LOW. THEN LIGHT SNOW
MAY DEVELOP NEARBY AHEAD OF TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WITH POSSIBLE
HIGHEST COVERAGE TUESDAY AS THE SFC LOW PASSES CLOSEST TO THE AREA.
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT AND WED WITH SFC
TROUGH/UPPER TROUGH/CYCLONIC FLOW IN VICINITY.

TOO EARLY FOR ANY SNOW ACCUMS...WITH BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
ACCUMULATING SNOW MON NIGHT AND TUE. MODEL DETAILS DO DIFFER ON QPF
AMOUNTS. COULD BE SOME PTYPE ISSUES DURING THE DAYTIME AS WELL.

OVERALL MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPS FOLLOWED FAIRLY CLOSELY...WHICH WAS IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT FROM PREV FCST ANYWAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND TODAY FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT.

SNOW CONTINUES THIS MORNING...ENDING NEAR 17-18Z FOR THE CITY
TERMINALS...AND ENDING BY AROUND 21Z OVER KGON.

IFR TO MVFR CONDS IMPROVING TO VFR SHORTLY AFTER SNOW ENDS.

N WINDS BACK NW THIS AFTN. GUSTS 25-30KT THRU AT LEAST MID-
AFTN...DIMINISHING LATE.

ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS STARTING 1430Z:
KSWF/TEB...TRACE
KEWR...TRACE
KHPN...1 INCH
KLGA...1-2 INCHES
KJFK...2 INCHES
KBDR...2-3 INCHES
KISP...3 INCHES
KGON...4 INCHES


   NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TEMPO MVFR CIGS 18-19Z MIGHT NOT OCCUR. GUSTS
MAY END A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST THIS EVE.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TEMPO MVFR CIGS 18-19Z MIGHT NOT OCCUR.
GUSTS MAY END A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST THIS EVE.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TEMPO MVFR CIGS 17-18Z MIGHT NOT OCCUR. GUSTS
MAY END A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST THIS EVE.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TEMPO MVFR CIGS 17-18Z MIGHT NOT OCCUR.
GUSTS MAY END A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST THIS EVE.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TEMPO MVFR CIGS 18-19Z MIGHT NOT OCCUR.
GUSTS MAY END A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST THIS EVE.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CIGS MIGHT OCCUR AN HOUR OR TWO EARLIER
THAN FORECAST. TEMPO MVFR CIGS 20-21Z MIGHT NOT OCCUR. GUSTS MAY END
A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST THIS EVE.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.SATURDAY-SUNDAY...VFR.
.MONDAY...MAINLY VFR EARLY...WITH MVFR OR LOWER AS SNOW BECOMES
LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT.
.TUESDAY...MVFR OR LOWER WITH SNOW LIKELY...POSSIBLY MIXED PTYPE
DURING THE AFTN AT THE COAST...TAPERING OFF LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECAST WINDS AND WAVES ON TRACK. MINOR CHANGES TO THE WEATHER
ACROSS THE WATERS FOR TODAY WITH RAIN AND SNOW.

LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE WATERS TODAY WITH A
STRONG AND GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW. MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS
GUSTS ARE LIKELY ON THE OCEAN WATERS TODAY WITH SMALL CRAFT GUSTS
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WATERS. WITH LOW PRESSURE
PASSING QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST THIS EVENING AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS AND WIND SUBSIDE. THERE
MAY BE SOME SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ON THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS INTO
THIS EVENING...AND MAYBE THE FAR EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND AND
BAYS...OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...SMALL CRAFT SEAS REMAIN ON THE OCEAN INTO
TONIGHT.

SW WINDS SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL SHIFT TO THE N...THEN NE
AS HIGH PRESSURE GIVES WAY TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE THAT IS
EXPECTED TO PASS WELL SE OF THE WATERS MONDAY.

ANOTHER LOW PASSES CLOSER TO THE WATERS TUESDAY. AS SUCH...EXPECT
INCREASING WINDS BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ALONG WITH BUILDING SEAS BY
THAT TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TODAY...LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF A TENTH NORTH AND WEST TO JUST UNDER AN
INCH ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT AND EASTERN LONG ISLAND
FALLS AS RAIN AND SNOW EARLY THIS MORNING...THE ALL SNOW INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. NO IMPACTS EXPECTED.

WIDESPREAD MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY THRU
TUESDAY. MOST OF THAT COULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW WITH NO
HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS. OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     CTZ006>008-010>012.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CTZ005-
     009.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NYZ078>081.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     NYZ067.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NYZ068>075-
     176-178.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ177-
     179.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     NJZ002.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NJZ004-006-
     103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-
     335-338-340-345.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...




000
FXUS61 KOKX 051459
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
959 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND REMAINS OVER THE
REGION SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE GIVES WAY TO PASSING OFFSHORE LOW
MONDAY...AND ANOTHER LOW THAT TRACKS CLOSER TO THE AREA TUESDAY.
LINGERING TROUGH IMPACTS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DEEPENING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WAS APPROX 150 MILES SOUTH OF
MONTAUK 14Z. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST AND
DEEPEN FURTHER THIS MORNING. PCPN TYPE IS NOW SNOW FOR ALL AREAS
AND WILL CONTINUE TO FALL. SNOW WILL END VERY SHORTLY OVER THE FAR
NW ZONES...AND SHOULD END NEAR NOON FOR THE CITY/METRO AREA...AND
FINALLY SHIFT EAST OUT THE CWA LATE THIS AFTN.

BASED ON OBS AND RADAR TRENDS...HAVE EXPANDED WINTER STORM WARNING
WESTWARD TO COVER NASSAU COUNTY AS WELL AS NEW HAVEN AND MIDDLESEX
COUNTIES.

EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN IN THE LOWER AND MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN TONIGHT WITH THE UPPER FLOW NEARLY
ZONAL AS A PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM DOMINATES. DURING SATURDAY
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT AND IS SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AFTER A COOL DOWN TODAY TEMPERATURES MODERATE
AS WEAK WARM ADVECTION SETS UP TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SPLIT FLOW ALOFT AS SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY...AND NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
TRACKS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. FAST ON IT/S HEELS IS NEXT SHORTWAVE
THAT WILL TRACK TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE THIS
WEEKEND...AMPLIFYING AS IT DOES SO. THIS ELONGATED TROUGH SLOWLY
MOVES EAST...WITH REINFORCING ENERGY DIVING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA
AND EVENTUALLY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH BY MID WEEK.

AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE AREA GIVES WAY TO
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SE COAST. THIS LOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH
SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH. THIS LOW TRACKS WELL TO THE SE OF THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK BY MONDAY. UPSTREAM LOW MOVES OUT OF THE UPPER MID
WEST TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY...EVENTUALLY STRENGTHENING OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST/DELMARVA VCNTY BY TUESDAY. NORLUN TROUGH EXTENDS
NW...WITH WEAK TROUGH LINGERING ACROSS THE NE INTO WED.

AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...DRY INITIALLY WITH A POSSIBLE GLANCING
BLOW OF LIGHT SNOW MONDAY WITH PASSING OFFSHORE LOW. THEN LIGHT SNOW
MAY DEVELOP NEARBY AHEAD OF TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WITH POSSIBLE
HIGHEST COVERAGE TUESDAY AS THE SFC LOW PASSES CLOSEST TO THE AREA.
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT AND WED WITH SFC
TROUGH/UPPER TROUGH/CYCLONIC FLOW IN VICINITY.

TOO EARLY FOR ANY SNOW ACCUMS...WITH BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
ACCUMULATING SNOW MON NIGHT AND TUE. MODEL DETAILS DO DIFFER ON QPF
AMOUNTS. COULD BE SOME PTYPE ISSUES DURING THE DAYTIME AS WELL.

OVERALL MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPS FOLLOWED FAIRLY CLOSELY...WHICH WAS IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT FROM PREV FCST ANYWAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND TODAY FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT.

SNOW CONTINUES THIS MORNING...ENDING NEAR 17-18Z FOR THE CITY
TERMINALS...AND ENDING BY AROUND 21Z OVER KGON.

IFR TO MVFR CONDS IMPROVING TO VFR SHORTLY AFTER SNOW ENDS.

N WINDS BACK NW THIS AFTN. GUSTS 25-30KT THRU AT LEAST MID-
AFTN...DIMINISHING LATE.

ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS STARTING 1430Z:
KSWF/TEB...TRACE
KEWR...TRACE
KHPN...1 INCH
KLGA...1-2 INCHES
KJFK...2 INCHES
KBDR...2-3 INCHES
KISP...3 INCHES
KGON...4 INCHES


   NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TEMPO MVFR CIGS 18-19Z MIGHT NOT OCCUR. GUSTS
MAY END A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST THIS EVE.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TEMPO MVFR CIGS 18-19Z MIGHT NOT OCCUR.
GUSTS MAY END A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST THIS EVE.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TEMPO MVFR CIGS 17-18Z MIGHT NOT OCCUR. GUSTS
MAY END A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST THIS EVE.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TEMPO MVFR CIGS 17-18Z MIGHT NOT OCCUR.
GUSTS MAY END A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST THIS EVE.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TEMPO MVFR CIGS 18-19Z MIGHT NOT OCCUR.
GUSTS MAY END A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST THIS EVE.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CIGS MIGHT OCCUR AN HOUR OR TWO EARLIER
THAN FORECAST. TEMPO MVFR CIGS 20-21Z MIGHT NOT OCCUR. GUSTS MAY END
A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST THIS EVE.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.SATURDAY-SUNDAY...VFR.
.MONDAY...MAINLY VFR EARLY...WITH MVFR OR LOWER AS SNOW BECOMES
LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT.
.TUESDAY...MVFR OR LOWER WITH SNOW LIKELY...POSSIBLY MIXED PTYPE
DURING THE AFTN AT THE COAST...TAPERING OFF LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECAST WINDS AND WAVES ON TRACK. MINOR CHANGES TO THE WEATHER
ACROSS THE WATERS FOR TODAY WITH RAIN AND SNOW.

LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE WATERS TODAY WITH A
STRONG AND GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW. MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS
GUSTS ARE LIKELY ON THE OCEAN WATERS TODAY WITH SMALL CRAFT GUSTS
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WATERS. WITH LOW PRESSURE
PASSING QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST THIS EVENING AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS AND WIND SUBSIDE. THERE
MAY BE SOME SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ON THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS INTO
THIS EVENING...AND MAYBE THE FAR EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND AND
BAYS...OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...SMALL CRAFT SEAS REMAIN ON THE OCEAN INTO
TONIGHT.

SW WINDS SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL SHIFT TO THE N...THEN NE
AS HIGH PRESSURE GIVES WAY TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE THAT IS
EXPECTED TO PASS WELL SE OF THE WATERS MONDAY.

ANOTHER LOW PASSES CLOSER TO THE WATERS TUESDAY. AS SUCH...EXPECT
INCREASING WINDS BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ALONG WITH BUILDING SEAS BY
THAT TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TODAY...LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF A TENTH NORTH AND WEST TO JUST UNDER AN
INCH ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT AND EASTERN LONG ISLAND
FALLS AS RAIN AND SNOW EARLY THIS MORNING...THE ALL SNOW INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. NO IMPACTS EXPECTED.

WIDESPREAD MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY THRU
TUESDAY. MOST OF THAT COULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW WITH NO
HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS. OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     CTZ006>008-010>012.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CTZ005-
     009.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NYZ078>081.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     NYZ067.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NYZ068>075-
     176-178.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ177-
     179.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     NJZ002.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NJZ004-006-
     103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-
     335-338-340-345.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...




000
FXUS61 KOKX 051459 CCA
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
959 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND REMAINS OVER THE
REGION SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE GIVES WAY TO PASSING OFFSHORE LOW
MONDAY...AND ANOTHER LOW THAT TRACKS CLOSER TO THE AREA TUESDAY.
LINGERING TROUGH IMPACTS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DEEPENING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WAS APPROX 150 MILES SOUTH OF
MONTAUK 14Z. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST AND
DEEPEN FURTHER THIS MORNING. PCPN TYPE IS NOW SNOW FOR ALL AREAS
AND WILL CONTINUE TO FALL. SNOW WILL END VERY SHORTLY OVER THE FAR
NW ZONES...AND SHOULD END NEAR NOON FOR THE CITY/METRO AREA...AND
FINALLY SHIFT EAST OUT THE CWA LATE THIS AFTN.

BASED ON OBS AND RADAR TRENDS...HAVE EXPANDED WINTER STORM WARNING
WESTWARD TO COVER NASSAU COUNTY AS WELL AS NEW HAVEN AND FAIRFIELD
COUNTIES.

EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN IN THE LOWER AND MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN TONIGHT WITH THE UPPER FLOW NEARLY
ZONAL AS A PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM DOMINATES. DURING SATURDAY
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT AND IS SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AFTER A COOL DOWN TODAY TEMPERATURES MODERATE
AS WEAK WARM ADVECTION SETS UP TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SPLIT FLOW ALOFT AS SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY...AND NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
TRACKS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. FAST ON IT/S HEELS IS NEXT SHORTWAVE
THAT WILL TRACK TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE THIS
WEEKEND...AMPLIFYING AS IT DOES SO. THIS ELONGATED TROUGH SLOWLY
MOVES EAST...WITH REINFORCING ENERGY DIVING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA
AND EVENTUALLY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH BY MID WEEK.

AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE AREA GIVES WAY TO
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SE COAST. THIS LOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH
SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH. THIS LOW TRACKS WELL TO THE SE OF THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK BY MONDAY. UPSTREAM LOW MOVES OUT OF THE UPPER MID
WEST TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY...EVENTUALLY STRENGTHENING OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST/DELMARVA VCNTY BY TUESDAY. NORLUN TROUGH EXTENDS
NW...WITH WEAK TROUGH LINGERING ACROSS THE NE INTO WED.

AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...DRY INITIALLY WITH A POSSIBLE GLANCING
BLOW OF LIGHT SNOW MONDAY WITH PASSING OFFSHORE LOW. THEN LIGHT SNOW
MAY DEVELOP NEARBY AHEAD OF TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WITH POSSIBLE
HIGHEST COVERAGE TUESDAY AS THE SFC LOW PASSES CLOSEST TO THE AREA.
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT AND WED WITH SFC
TROUGH/UPPER TROUGH/CYCLONIC FLOW IN VICINITY.

TOO EARLY FOR ANY SNOW ACCUMS...WITH BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
ACCUMULATING SNOW MON NIGHT AND TUE. MODEL DETAILS DO DIFFER ON QPF
AMOUNTS. COULD BE SOME PTYPE ISSUES DURING THE DAYTIME AS WELL.

OVERALL MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPS FOLLOWED FAIRLY CLOSELY...WHICH WAS IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT FROM PREV FCST ANYWAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND TODAY FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT.

SNOW CONTINUES THIS MORNING...ENDING NEAR 17-18Z FOR THE CITY
TERMINALS...AND ENDING BY AROUND 21Z OVER KGON.

IFR TO MVFR CONDS IMPROVING TO VFR SHORTLY AFTER SNOW ENDS.

N WINDS BACK NW THIS AFTN. GUSTS 25-30KT THRU AT LEAST MID-
AFTN...DIMINISHING LATE.

ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS STARTING 1430Z:
KSWF/TEB...TRACE
KEWR...TRACE
KHPN...1 INCH
KLGA...1-2 INCHES
KJFK...2 INCHES
KBDR...2-3 INCHES
KISP...3 INCHES
KGON...4 INCHES


   NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TEMPO MVFR CIGS 18-19Z MIGHT NOT OCCUR. GUSTS
MAY END A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST THIS EVE.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TEMPO MVFR CIGS 18-19Z MIGHT NOT OCCUR.
GUSTS MAY END A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST THIS EVE.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TEMPO MVFR CIGS 17-18Z MIGHT NOT OCCUR. GUSTS
MAY END A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST THIS EVE.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TEMPO MVFR CIGS 17-18Z MIGHT NOT OCCUR.
GUSTS MAY END A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST THIS EVE.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TEMPO MVFR CIGS 18-19Z MIGHT NOT OCCUR.
GUSTS MAY END A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST THIS EVE.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CIGS MIGHT OCCUR AN HOUR OR TWO EARLIER
THAN FORECAST. TEMPO MVFR CIGS 20-21Z MIGHT NOT OCCUR. GUSTS MAY END
A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST THIS EVE.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.SATURDAY-SUNDAY...VFR.
.MONDAY...MAINLY VFR EARLY...WITH MVFR OR LOWER AS SNOW BECOMES
LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT.
.TUESDAY...MVFR OR LOWER WITH SNOW LIKELY...POSSIBLY MIXED PTYPE
DURING THE AFTN AT THE COAST...TAPERING OFF LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECAST WINDS AND WAVES ON TRACK. MINOR CHANGES TO THE WEATHER
ACROSS THE WATERS FOR TODAY WITH RAIN AND SNOW.

LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE WATERS TODAY WITH A
STRONG AND GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW. MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS
GUSTS ARE LIKELY ON THE OCEAN WATERS TODAY WITH SMALL CRAFT GUSTS
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WATERS. WITH LOW PRESSURE
PASSING QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST THIS EVENING AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS AND WIND SUBSIDE. THERE
MAY BE SOME SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ON THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS INTO
THIS EVENING...AND MAYBE THE FAR EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND AND
BAYS...OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...SMALL CRAFT SEAS REMAIN ON THE OCEAN INTO
TONIGHT.

SW WINDS SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL SHIFT TO THE N...THEN NE
AS HIGH PRESSURE GIVES WAY TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE THAT IS
EXPECTED TO PASS WELL SE OF THE WATERS MONDAY.

ANOTHER LOW PASSES CLOSER TO THE WATERS TUESDAY. AS SUCH...EXPECT
INCREASING WINDS BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ALONG WITH BUILDING SEAS BY
THAT TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TODAY...LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF A TENTH NORTH AND WEST TO JUST UNDER AN
INCH ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT AND EASTERN LONG ISLAND
FALLS AS RAIN AND SNOW EARLY THIS MORNING...THE ALL SNOW INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. NO IMPACTS EXPECTED.

WIDESPREAD MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY THRU
TUESDAY. MOST OF THAT COULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW WITH NO
HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS. OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     CTZ006>008-010>012.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CTZ005-
     009.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NYZ078>081.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     NYZ067.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NYZ068>075-
     176-178.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ177-
     179.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     NJZ002.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NJZ004-006-
     103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-
     335-338-340-345.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...



000
FXUS61 KOKX 051459 CCA
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
959 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND REMAINS OVER THE
REGION SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE GIVES WAY TO PASSING OFFSHORE LOW
MONDAY...AND ANOTHER LOW THAT TRACKS CLOSER TO THE AREA TUESDAY.
LINGERING TROUGH IMPACTS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DEEPENING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WAS APPROX 150 MILES SOUTH OF
MONTAUK 14Z. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST AND
DEEPEN FURTHER THIS MORNING. PCPN TYPE IS NOW SNOW FOR ALL AREAS
AND WILL CONTINUE TO FALL. SNOW WILL END VERY SHORTLY OVER THE FAR
NW ZONES...AND SHOULD END NEAR NOON FOR THE CITY/METRO AREA...AND
FINALLY SHIFT EAST OUT THE CWA LATE THIS AFTN.

BASED ON OBS AND RADAR TRENDS...HAVE EXPANDED WINTER STORM WARNING
WESTWARD TO COVER NASSAU COUNTY AS WELL AS NEW HAVEN AND FAIRFIELD
COUNTIES.

EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN IN THE LOWER AND MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN TONIGHT WITH THE UPPER FLOW NEARLY
ZONAL AS A PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM DOMINATES. DURING SATURDAY
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT AND IS SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AFTER A COOL DOWN TODAY TEMPERATURES MODERATE
AS WEAK WARM ADVECTION SETS UP TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SPLIT FLOW ALOFT AS SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY...AND NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
TRACKS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. FAST ON IT/S HEELS IS NEXT SHORTWAVE
THAT WILL TRACK TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE THIS
WEEKEND...AMPLIFYING AS IT DOES SO. THIS ELONGATED TROUGH SLOWLY
MOVES EAST...WITH REINFORCING ENERGY DIVING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA
AND EVENTUALLY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH BY MID WEEK.

AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE AREA GIVES WAY TO
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SE COAST. THIS LOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH
SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH. THIS LOW TRACKS WELL TO THE SE OF THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK BY MONDAY. UPSTREAM LOW MOVES OUT OF THE UPPER MID
WEST TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY...EVENTUALLY STRENGTHENING OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST/DELMARVA VCNTY BY TUESDAY. NORLUN TROUGH EXTENDS
NW...WITH WEAK TROUGH LINGERING ACROSS THE NE INTO WED.

AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...DRY INITIALLY WITH A POSSIBLE GLANCING
BLOW OF LIGHT SNOW MONDAY WITH PASSING OFFSHORE LOW. THEN LIGHT SNOW
MAY DEVELOP NEARBY AHEAD OF TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WITH POSSIBLE
HIGHEST COVERAGE TUESDAY AS THE SFC LOW PASSES CLOSEST TO THE AREA.
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT AND WED WITH SFC
TROUGH/UPPER TROUGH/CYCLONIC FLOW IN VICINITY.

TOO EARLY FOR ANY SNOW ACCUMS...WITH BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
ACCUMULATING SNOW MON NIGHT AND TUE. MODEL DETAILS DO DIFFER ON QPF
AMOUNTS. COULD BE SOME PTYPE ISSUES DURING THE DAYTIME AS WELL.

OVERALL MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPS FOLLOWED FAIRLY CLOSELY...WHICH WAS IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT FROM PREV FCST ANYWAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND TODAY FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT.

SNOW CONTINUES THIS MORNING...ENDING NEAR 17-18Z FOR THE CITY
TERMINALS...AND ENDING BY AROUND 21Z OVER KGON.

IFR TO MVFR CONDS IMPROVING TO VFR SHORTLY AFTER SNOW ENDS.

N WINDS BACK NW THIS AFTN. GUSTS 25-30KT THRU AT LEAST MID-
AFTN...DIMINISHING LATE.

ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS STARTING 1430Z:
KSWF/TEB...TRACE
KEWR...TRACE
KHPN...1 INCH
KLGA...1-2 INCHES
KJFK...2 INCHES
KBDR...2-3 INCHES
KISP...3 INCHES
KGON...4 INCHES


   NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TEMPO MVFR CIGS 18-19Z MIGHT NOT OCCUR. GUSTS
MAY END A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST THIS EVE.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TEMPO MVFR CIGS 18-19Z MIGHT NOT OCCUR.
GUSTS MAY END A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST THIS EVE.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TEMPO MVFR CIGS 17-18Z MIGHT NOT OCCUR. GUSTS
MAY END A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST THIS EVE.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TEMPO MVFR CIGS 17-18Z MIGHT NOT OCCUR.
GUSTS MAY END A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST THIS EVE.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TEMPO MVFR CIGS 18-19Z MIGHT NOT OCCUR.
GUSTS MAY END A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST THIS EVE.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CIGS MIGHT OCCUR AN HOUR OR TWO EARLIER
THAN FORECAST. TEMPO MVFR CIGS 20-21Z MIGHT NOT OCCUR. GUSTS MAY END
A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST THIS EVE.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.SATURDAY-SUNDAY...VFR.
.MONDAY...MAINLY VFR EARLY...WITH MVFR OR LOWER AS SNOW BECOMES
LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT.
.TUESDAY...MVFR OR LOWER WITH SNOW LIKELY...POSSIBLY MIXED PTYPE
DURING THE AFTN AT THE COAST...TAPERING OFF LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECAST WINDS AND WAVES ON TRACK. MINOR CHANGES TO THE WEATHER
ACROSS THE WATERS FOR TODAY WITH RAIN AND SNOW.

LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE WATERS TODAY WITH A
STRONG AND GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW. MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS
GUSTS ARE LIKELY ON THE OCEAN WATERS TODAY WITH SMALL CRAFT GUSTS
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WATERS. WITH LOW PRESSURE
PASSING QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST THIS EVENING AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS AND WIND SUBSIDE. THERE
MAY BE SOME SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ON THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS INTO
THIS EVENING...AND MAYBE THE FAR EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND AND
BAYS...OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...SMALL CRAFT SEAS REMAIN ON THE OCEAN INTO
TONIGHT.

SW WINDS SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL SHIFT TO THE N...THEN NE
AS HIGH PRESSURE GIVES WAY TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE THAT IS
EXPECTED TO PASS WELL SE OF THE WATERS MONDAY.

ANOTHER LOW PASSES CLOSER TO THE WATERS TUESDAY. AS SUCH...EXPECT
INCREASING WINDS BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ALONG WITH BUILDING SEAS BY
THAT TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TODAY...LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF A TENTH NORTH AND WEST TO JUST UNDER AN
INCH ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT AND EASTERN LONG ISLAND
FALLS AS RAIN AND SNOW EARLY THIS MORNING...THE ALL SNOW INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. NO IMPACTS EXPECTED.

WIDESPREAD MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY THRU
TUESDAY. MOST OF THAT COULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW WITH NO
HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS. OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     CTZ006>008-010>012.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CTZ005-
     009.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NYZ078>081.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     NYZ067.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NYZ068>075-
     176-178.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ177-
     179.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     NJZ002.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NJZ004-006-
     103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-
     335-338-340-345.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...




000
FXUS61 KOKX 051459
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
959 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND REMAINS OVER THE
REGION SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE GIVES WAY TO PASSING OFFSHORE LOW
MONDAY...AND ANOTHER LOW THAT TRACKS CLOSER TO THE AREA TUESDAY.
LINGERING TROUGH IMPACTS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DEEPENING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WAS APPROX 150 MILES SOUTH OF
MONTAUK 14Z. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST AND
DEEPEN FURTHER THIS MORNING. PCPN TYPE IS NOW SNOW FOR ALL AREAS
AND WILL CONTINUE TO FALL. SNOW WILL END VERY SHORTLY OVER THE FAR
NW ZONES...AND SHOULD END NEAR NOON FOR THE CITY/METRO AREA...AND
FINALLY SHIFT EAST OUT THE CWA LATE THIS AFTN.

BASED ON OBS AND RADAR TRENDS...HAVE EXPANDED WINTER STORM WARNING
WESTWARD TO COVER NASSAU COUNTY AS WELL AS NEW HAVEN AND MIDDLESEX
COUNTIES.

EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN IN THE LOWER AND MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN TONIGHT WITH THE UPPER FLOW NEARLY
ZONAL AS A PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM DOMINATES. DURING SATURDAY
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT AND IS SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AFTER A COOL DOWN TODAY TEMPERATURES MODERATE
AS WEAK WARM ADVECTION SETS UP TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SPLIT FLOW ALOFT AS SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY...AND NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
TRACKS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. FAST ON IT/S HEELS IS NEXT SHORTWAVE
THAT WILL TRACK TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE THIS
WEEKEND...AMPLIFYING AS IT DOES SO. THIS ELONGATED TROUGH SLOWLY
MOVES EAST...WITH REINFORCING ENERGY DIVING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA
AND EVENTUALLY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH BY MID WEEK.

AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE AREA GIVES WAY TO
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SE COAST. THIS LOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH
SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH. THIS LOW TRACKS WELL TO THE SE OF THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK BY MONDAY. UPSTREAM LOW MOVES OUT OF THE UPPER MID
WEST TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY...EVENTUALLY STRENGTHENING OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST/DELMARVA VCNTY BY TUESDAY. NORLUN TROUGH EXTENDS
NW...WITH WEAK TROUGH LINGERING ACROSS THE NE INTO WED.

AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...DRY INITIALLY WITH A POSSIBLE GLANCING
BLOW OF LIGHT SNOW MONDAY WITH PASSING OFFSHORE LOW. THEN LIGHT SNOW
MAY DEVELOP NEARBY AHEAD OF TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WITH POSSIBLE
HIGHEST COVERAGE TUESDAY AS THE SFC LOW PASSES CLOSEST TO THE AREA.
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT AND WED WITH SFC
TROUGH/UPPER TROUGH/CYCLONIC FLOW IN VICINITY.

TOO EARLY FOR ANY SNOW ACCUMS...WITH BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
ACCUMULATING SNOW MON NIGHT AND TUE. MODEL DETAILS DO DIFFER ON QPF
AMOUNTS. COULD BE SOME PTYPE ISSUES DURING THE DAYTIME AS WELL.

OVERALL MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPS FOLLOWED FAIRLY CLOSELY...WHICH WAS IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT FROM PREV FCST ANYWAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND TODAY FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT.

SNOW CONTINUES THIS MORNING...ENDING NEAR 17-18Z FOR THE CITY
TERMINALS...AND ENDING BY AROUND 21Z OVER KGON.

IFR TO MVFR CONDS IMPROVING TO VFR SHORTLY AFTER SNOW ENDS.

N WINDS BACK NW THIS AFTN. GUSTS 25-30KT THRU AT LEAST MID-
AFTN...DIMINISHING LATE.

ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS STARTING 1430Z:
KSWF/TEB...TRACE
KEWR...TRACE
KHPN...1 INCH
KLGA...1-2 INCHES
KJFK...2 INCHES
KBDR...2-3 INCHES
KISP...3 INCHES
KGON...4 INCHES


   NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TEMPO MVFR CIGS 18-19Z MIGHT NOT OCCUR. GUSTS
MAY END A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST THIS EVE.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TEMPO MVFR CIGS 18-19Z MIGHT NOT OCCUR.
GUSTS MAY END A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST THIS EVE.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TEMPO MVFR CIGS 17-18Z MIGHT NOT OCCUR. GUSTS
MAY END A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST THIS EVE.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TEMPO MVFR CIGS 17-18Z MIGHT NOT OCCUR.
GUSTS MAY END A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST THIS EVE.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TEMPO MVFR CIGS 18-19Z MIGHT NOT OCCUR.
GUSTS MAY END A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST THIS EVE.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CIGS MIGHT OCCUR AN HOUR OR TWO EARLIER
THAN FORECAST. TEMPO MVFR CIGS 20-21Z MIGHT NOT OCCUR. GUSTS MAY END
A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST THIS EVE.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.SATURDAY-SUNDAY...VFR.
.MONDAY...MAINLY VFR EARLY...WITH MVFR OR LOWER AS SNOW BECOMES
LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT.
.TUESDAY...MVFR OR LOWER WITH SNOW LIKELY...POSSIBLY MIXED PTYPE
DURING THE AFTN AT THE COAST...TAPERING OFF LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECAST WINDS AND WAVES ON TRACK. MINOR CHANGES TO THE WEATHER
ACROSS THE WATERS FOR TODAY WITH RAIN AND SNOW.

LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE WATERS TODAY WITH A
STRONG AND GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW. MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS
GUSTS ARE LIKELY ON THE OCEAN WATERS TODAY WITH SMALL CRAFT GUSTS
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WATERS. WITH LOW PRESSURE
PASSING QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST THIS EVENING AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS AND WIND SUBSIDE. THERE
MAY BE SOME SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ON THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS INTO
THIS EVENING...AND MAYBE THE FAR EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND AND
BAYS...OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...SMALL CRAFT SEAS REMAIN ON THE OCEAN INTO
TONIGHT.

SW WINDS SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL SHIFT TO THE N...THEN NE
AS HIGH PRESSURE GIVES WAY TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE THAT IS
EXPECTED TO PASS WELL SE OF THE WATERS MONDAY.

ANOTHER LOW PASSES CLOSER TO THE WATERS TUESDAY. AS SUCH...EXPECT
INCREASING WINDS BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ALONG WITH BUILDING SEAS BY
THAT TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TODAY...LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF A TENTH NORTH AND WEST TO JUST UNDER AN
INCH ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT AND EASTERN LONG ISLAND
FALLS AS RAIN AND SNOW EARLY THIS MORNING...THE ALL SNOW INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. NO IMPACTS EXPECTED.

WIDESPREAD MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY THRU
TUESDAY. MOST OF THAT COULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW WITH NO
HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS. OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     CTZ006>008-010>012.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CTZ005-
     009.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NYZ078>081.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     NYZ067.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NYZ068>075-
     176-178.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ177-
     179.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     NJZ002.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NJZ004-006-
     103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-
     335-338-340-345.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...




000
FXUS61 KOKX 051459
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
959 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND REMAINS OVER THE
REGION SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE GIVES WAY TO PASSING OFFSHORE LOW
MONDAY...AND ANOTHER LOW THAT TRACKS CLOSER TO THE AREA TUESDAY.
LINGERING TROUGH IMPACTS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DEEPENING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WAS APPROX 150 MILES SOUTH OF
MONTAUK 14Z. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST AND
DEEPEN FURTHER THIS MORNING. PCPN TYPE IS NOW SNOW FOR ALL AREAS
AND WILL CONTINUE TO FALL. SNOW WILL END VERY SHORTLY OVER THE FAR
NW ZONES...AND SHOULD END NEAR NOON FOR THE CITY/METRO AREA...AND
FINALLY SHIFT EAST OUT THE CWA LATE THIS AFTN.

BASED ON OBS AND RADAR TRENDS...HAVE EXPANDED WINTER STORM WARNING
WESTWARD TO COVER NASSAU COUNTY AS WELL AS NEW HAVEN AND MIDDLESEX
COUNTIES.

EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN IN THE LOWER AND MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN TONIGHT WITH THE UPPER FLOW NEARLY
ZONAL AS A PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM DOMINATES. DURING SATURDAY
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT AND IS SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AFTER A COOL DOWN TODAY TEMPERATURES MODERATE
AS WEAK WARM ADVECTION SETS UP TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SPLIT FLOW ALOFT AS SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY...AND NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
TRACKS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. FAST ON IT/S HEELS IS NEXT SHORTWAVE
THAT WILL TRACK TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE THIS
WEEKEND...AMPLIFYING AS IT DOES SO. THIS ELONGATED TROUGH SLOWLY
MOVES EAST...WITH REINFORCING ENERGY DIVING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA
AND EVENTUALLY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH BY MID WEEK.

AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE AREA GIVES WAY TO
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SE COAST. THIS LOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH
SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH. THIS LOW TRACKS WELL TO THE SE OF THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK BY MONDAY. UPSTREAM LOW MOVES OUT OF THE UPPER MID
WEST TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY...EVENTUALLY STRENGTHENING OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST/DELMARVA VCNTY BY TUESDAY. NORLUN TROUGH EXTENDS
NW...WITH WEAK TROUGH LINGERING ACROSS THE NE INTO WED.

AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...DRY INITIALLY WITH A POSSIBLE GLANCING
BLOW OF LIGHT SNOW MONDAY WITH PASSING OFFSHORE LOW. THEN LIGHT SNOW
MAY DEVELOP NEARBY AHEAD OF TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WITH POSSIBLE
HIGHEST COVERAGE TUESDAY AS THE SFC LOW PASSES CLOSEST TO THE AREA.
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT AND WED WITH SFC
TROUGH/UPPER TROUGH/CYCLONIC FLOW IN VICINITY.

TOO EARLY FOR ANY SNOW ACCUMS...WITH BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
ACCUMULATING SNOW MON NIGHT AND TUE. MODEL DETAILS DO DIFFER ON QPF
AMOUNTS. COULD BE SOME PTYPE ISSUES DURING THE DAYTIME AS WELL.

OVERALL MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPS FOLLOWED FAIRLY CLOSELY...WHICH WAS IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT FROM PREV FCST ANYWAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND TODAY FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT.

SNOW CONTINUES THIS MORNING...ENDING NEAR 17-18Z FOR THE CITY
TERMINALS...AND ENDING BY AROUND 21Z OVER KGON.

IFR TO MVFR CONDS IMPROVING TO VFR SHORTLY AFTER SNOW ENDS.

N WINDS BACK NW THIS AFTN. GUSTS 25-30KT THRU AT LEAST MID-
AFTN...DIMINISHING LATE.

ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS STARTING 1430Z:
KSWF/TEB...TRACE
KEWR...TRACE
KHPN...1 INCH
KLGA...1-2 INCHES
KJFK...2 INCHES
KBDR...2-3 INCHES
KISP...3 INCHES
KGON...4 INCHES


   NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TEMPO MVFR CIGS 18-19Z MIGHT NOT OCCUR. GUSTS
MAY END A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST THIS EVE.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TEMPO MVFR CIGS 18-19Z MIGHT NOT OCCUR.
GUSTS MAY END A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST THIS EVE.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TEMPO MVFR CIGS 17-18Z MIGHT NOT OCCUR. GUSTS
MAY END A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST THIS EVE.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TEMPO MVFR CIGS 17-18Z MIGHT NOT OCCUR.
GUSTS MAY END A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST THIS EVE.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TEMPO MVFR CIGS 18-19Z MIGHT NOT OCCUR.
GUSTS MAY END A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST THIS EVE.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CIGS MIGHT OCCUR AN HOUR OR TWO EARLIER
THAN FORECAST. TEMPO MVFR CIGS 20-21Z MIGHT NOT OCCUR. GUSTS MAY END
A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST THIS EVE.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.SATURDAY-SUNDAY...VFR.
.MONDAY...MAINLY VFR EARLY...WITH MVFR OR LOWER AS SNOW BECOMES
LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT.
.TUESDAY...MVFR OR LOWER WITH SNOW LIKELY...POSSIBLY MIXED PTYPE
DURING THE AFTN AT THE COAST...TAPERING OFF LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECAST WINDS AND WAVES ON TRACK. MINOR CHANGES TO THE WEATHER
ACROSS THE WATERS FOR TODAY WITH RAIN AND SNOW.

LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE WATERS TODAY WITH A
STRONG AND GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW. MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS
GUSTS ARE LIKELY ON THE OCEAN WATERS TODAY WITH SMALL CRAFT GUSTS
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WATERS. WITH LOW PRESSURE
PASSING QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST THIS EVENING AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS AND WIND SUBSIDE. THERE
MAY BE SOME SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ON THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS INTO
THIS EVENING...AND MAYBE THE FAR EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND AND
BAYS...OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT TONIGH