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000
FXUS61 KOKX 230040
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
840 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE DELMARVA WILL DEEPEN AND TRACK
NORTHEAST...PASSING SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THE LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...REACHING THE CANADIAN MARITIME BY LATE FRIDAY. LOW
PRESSURE DOMINATES IN CANADIAN MARITIMES FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
CLOSED UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DEEPEN AND TRACK TO THE
NORTHEAST FROM OFF THE DELMARVA TONIGHT. LATEST SAT WV IMAGERY
SHOWS DRY SLOT PUNCHING IN TOWARD MONTAUK HELPING TO ENHANCE MID
LEVEL CONVERGENCE/INSTABILITY...WITH LINE OF STRONG TO SVR TSTMS
WITH GRAVITY WAVE LIKE APPEARANCE S OF MONTAUK AND MOVING NW
TOWARD THE FORKS OF LONG ISLAND AND SE CT. CONVECTION IS ELEVATED
BUT DUCTING OF GRAVITY WAVE ENERGY JUST N OF THE APPROACHING
OCCLUDED FRONT COULD ALLOW VERY STRONG WINDS TO REACH THE SURFACE
THERE...AND WE ARE MONITORING RADAR FOR POSSIBLE SVR TSTM WARNING
ISSUANCES.

ELSEWHERE...BANDS OF LIGHT./MODERATE RAIN WILL PIVOT AROUND THE
CLOSED LOW TONIGHT AS IT DEEPENS AND PASSES SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND
TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FLUCTUATE MUCH WITH THE RAIN AND
CLOUD COVER...AND NO CHANGE IN THE AIR MASS...REMAINING MOSTLY IN
THE LOWER AND MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW REMAINS CLOSED OFF AND BY LATE IN THE DAY THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT BEGINS TO GET PICKED UP BY THE WESTERLIES AND
MOVES A LITTLE QUICKER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MEANWHILE THE
SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DEEPEN INTO FRIDAY. BANDS OF RAIN
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
CATEGORICAL POPS EARLY SLOWLY LOWERING INTO THE AFTERNOON. AS THE
LOW PULLS TO THE NORTHEAST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ENDING FROM WEST SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST.
MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK AND LOW INTENSITY AND
A BLEND WAS USED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW WITH EQUIVALENT BAROTROPIC CHARACTERISTICS
NEAR NOVA SCOTIA FRIDAY NIGHT EVENTUALLY BECOMES DIFFUSE AND MERGES
WITH ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN SOUTHEAST CANADA DURING THE
WEEKEND.

SO ESSENTIALLY...LOW PRESSURE REMAINS IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN THE REGION
WITH MORE SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE SATURDAY WILL ALLOW
FOR A WARMER THAN NORMAL AIR MASS BUT A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL DELIVER ANOTHER COOL AIR MASS ON SUNDAY. IT EVEN
APPEARS THERE COULD BE A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON
SUNDAY...HELPING TO REINFORCE THE COOLER AIR.

EARLY NEXT WEEK RIDGING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE.
THE AIR MASS MODERATES TO WARMER THAN NORMAL ON AVERAGE. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FOR LATE NEXT WEDNESDAY.

QUITE A DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER FORECAST. THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED WITH A MORE NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE. THEREFORE IT COULD VERY WELL MOVE
THROUGH DRY WITH PERHAPS A SHOWER OR TWO BUT JUST SLIGHT CHANCES.
THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY SHOWN AND DESPITE THE LACK OF
MOISTURE...THE SHORTWAVE AND VORTICITY ADVECTION IS LARGE SATURDAY
NIGHT SO THIS COULD RESULT IN POSSIBLE CONVECTION BUT WITH
INSTABILITY OF GENERALLY LESS THAN 100 J/KG OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA...LEFT ANY MENTION OF THUNDER OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY TRACKS JUST TO THE SOUTH...THEN EAST OF LONG
ISLAND INTO THURSDAY EVENING.

PRIMARILY MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ISOLATED POCKETS
IFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVY RAINFALL FROM TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. CONFIDENCE IN IFR OCCURRENCE AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION AND ITS
DURATION IS TOO LOW TO REFLECT IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. POCKETS OF
VFR POSSIBLE BY MID-LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE
IN THIS IS ALSO NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO REFLECT IN THE TAFS AT THIS
TIME.

WINDS SLOWLY BACK FROM NNE TO NNW-NW THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
STRONGER WINDS/GUSTS INITIALLY NEAR SOUTH SHORES OF CT/LONG
ISLAND/NYC TO GET STARTED. DO EXPECT WINDS AT OTHER TERMINALS TO
INCREASE THIS EVENING. GENERALLY HAVE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS AROUND 25-30KT
INTO AT LEAST EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SOME OCCASIONAL
GUSTS TO 35 KT POSSIBLE NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. PEAK GUSTS COULD
BE AS MUCH AS 10KT HIGHER AS THOSE FORECAST IN THE TAF.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE DUE TO POTENTIAL FOR
VARIABLE CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES AND WIND SPEED/GUST SPEED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE DUE TO POTENTIAL FOR
VARIABLE CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES AND WIND SPEED/GUST SPEED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE DUE TO POTENTIAL FOR
VARIABLE CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES AND WIND SPEED/GUST SPEED.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE DUE TO POTENTIAL FOR
VARIABLE CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES AND WIND SPEED/GUST SPEED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE DUE TO POTENTIAL FOR
VARIABLE CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES AND WIND SPEED/GUST SPEED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE DUE TO POTENTIAL FOR
VARIABLE CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES AND WIND SPEED/GUST SPEED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN PERIODS OF RA. NW
WINDS G25-30KT POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT COASTAL/CITY TERMINALS.
.FRIDAY...MOST LIKELY VFR...WITH LOW CHANCE SPOTTY MVFR. NW WINDS
G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY. VFR. NW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOST LIKELY VFR...LOW CHANCE MVFR. W WINDS G20-25KT
POSSIBLE.
.SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...MOST LIKELY VFR...LOW CHANCE MVFR. NW WINDS
G25-30KT POSSIBLE.
.MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE SOUTHERN NJ COAST EARLY THIS EVENING WILL
CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY...
REACHING NEAR NOVA SCOTIA BY FRIDAY EVENING. LATEST SFC OBS
INDICATE WINDS STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY FCST...AND THE 18Z NAM AND
OTHER HI-RES MODELS ARE CAPTURING THE SITUATION WELL....INCLUDING
BRIEF EPISODE OF WINDS NEAR 50 KT OVER THE FAR ERN OCEAN WATERS
THIS EVENING. GALE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT FOR
ALL WATERS...AND FOR THE OCEAN WATERS INTO THU AFTERNOON.

SCA LEVEL GUSTS EXPECTED ON THE SOUND/HARBOR/BAYS ON THU. AS THE
LOW PULLS NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY THE WIND WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH SCA LEVEL GUSTS POSSIBLE INTO FRIDAY.
OCEAN SEAS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT THROUGH AT LEAST THU NIGHT.

STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT...PROBABLY SOME RESIDUAL SCA CONDITIONS ON THE
WATERS. THESE WILL LOWER TO BELOW SCA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY BUT WILL TREND BACK UP DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. SCA
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE SATURDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR
GALES SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. THESE LOWER BY LATER SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY BUT SCA CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER DOWN FROM WEST
TO EAST MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GENERALLY LIGHT RAIN WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING WILL TOTAL FROM AROUND 3/4 OF AN INCH ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
NEW JERSEY TO 1 1/4 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT.

NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FRI NIGHT THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-
     345.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MET/JM
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...GOODMAN/MET/JM
HYDROLOGY...MET/JM









000
FXUS61 KOKX 230040
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
840 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE DELMARVA WILL DEEPEN AND TRACK
NORTHEAST...PASSING SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THE LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...REACHING THE CANADIAN MARITIME BY LATE FRIDAY. LOW
PRESSURE DOMINATES IN CANADIAN MARITIMES FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
CLOSED UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DEEPEN AND TRACK TO THE
NORTHEAST FROM OFF THE DELMARVA TONIGHT. LATEST SAT WV IMAGERY
SHOWS DRY SLOT PUNCHING IN TOWARD MONTAUK HELPING TO ENHANCE MID
LEVEL CONVERGENCE/INSTABILITY...WITH LINE OF STRONG TO SVR TSTMS
WITH GRAVITY WAVE LIKE APPEARANCE S OF MONTAUK AND MOVING NW
TOWARD THE FORKS OF LONG ISLAND AND SE CT. CONVECTION IS ELEVATED
BUT DUCTING OF GRAVITY WAVE ENERGY JUST N OF THE APPROACHING
OCCLUDED FRONT COULD ALLOW VERY STRONG WINDS TO REACH THE SURFACE
THERE...AND WE ARE MONITORING RADAR FOR POSSIBLE SVR TSTM WARNING
ISSUANCES.

ELSEWHERE...BANDS OF LIGHT./MODERATE RAIN WILL PIVOT AROUND THE
CLOSED LOW TONIGHT AS IT DEEPENS AND PASSES SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND
TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FLUCTUATE MUCH WITH THE RAIN AND
CLOUD COVER...AND NO CHANGE IN THE AIR MASS...REMAINING MOSTLY IN
THE LOWER AND MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW REMAINS CLOSED OFF AND BY LATE IN THE DAY THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT BEGINS TO GET PICKED UP BY THE WESTERLIES AND
MOVES A LITTLE QUICKER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MEANWHILE THE
SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DEEPEN INTO FRIDAY. BANDS OF RAIN
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
CATEGORICAL POPS EARLY SLOWLY LOWERING INTO THE AFTERNOON. AS THE
LOW PULLS TO THE NORTHEAST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ENDING FROM WEST SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST.
MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK AND LOW INTENSITY AND
A BLEND WAS USED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW WITH EQUIVALENT BAROTROPIC CHARACTERISTICS
NEAR NOVA SCOTIA FRIDAY NIGHT EVENTUALLY BECOMES DIFFUSE AND MERGES
WITH ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN SOUTHEAST CANADA DURING THE
WEEKEND.

SO ESSENTIALLY...LOW PRESSURE REMAINS IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN THE REGION
WITH MORE SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE SATURDAY WILL ALLOW
FOR A WARMER THAN NORMAL AIR MASS BUT A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL DELIVER ANOTHER COOL AIR MASS ON SUNDAY. IT EVEN
APPEARS THERE COULD BE A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON
SUNDAY...HELPING TO REINFORCE THE COOLER AIR.

EARLY NEXT WEEK RIDGING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE.
THE AIR MASS MODERATES TO WARMER THAN NORMAL ON AVERAGE. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FOR LATE NEXT WEDNESDAY.

QUITE A DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER FORECAST. THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED WITH A MORE NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE. THEREFORE IT COULD VERY WELL MOVE
THROUGH DRY WITH PERHAPS A SHOWER OR TWO BUT JUST SLIGHT CHANCES.
THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY SHOWN AND DESPITE THE LACK OF
MOISTURE...THE SHORTWAVE AND VORTICITY ADVECTION IS LARGE SATURDAY
NIGHT SO THIS COULD RESULT IN POSSIBLE CONVECTION BUT WITH
INSTABILITY OF GENERALLY LESS THAN 100 J/KG OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA...LEFT ANY MENTION OF THUNDER OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY TRACKS JUST TO THE SOUTH...THEN EAST OF LONG
ISLAND INTO THURSDAY EVENING.

PRIMARILY MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ISOLATED POCKETS
IFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVY RAINFALL FROM TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. CONFIDENCE IN IFR OCCURRENCE AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION AND ITS
DURATION IS TOO LOW TO REFLECT IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. POCKETS OF
VFR POSSIBLE BY MID-LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE
IN THIS IS ALSO NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO REFLECT IN THE TAFS AT THIS
TIME.

WINDS SLOWLY BACK FROM NNE TO NNW-NW THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
STRONGER WINDS/GUSTS INITIALLY NEAR SOUTH SHORES OF CT/LONG
ISLAND/NYC TO GET STARTED. DO EXPECT WINDS AT OTHER TERMINALS TO
INCREASE THIS EVENING. GENERALLY HAVE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS AROUND 25-30KT
INTO AT LEAST EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SOME OCCASIONAL
GUSTS TO 35 KT POSSIBLE NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. PEAK GUSTS COULD
BE AS MUCH AS 10KT HIGHER AS THOSE FORECAST IN THE TAF.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE DUE TO POTENTIAL FOR
VARIABLE CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES AND WIND SPEED/GUST SPEED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE DUE TO POTENTIAL FOR
VARIABLE CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES AND WIND SPEED/GUST SPEED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE DUE TO POTENTIAL FOR
VARIABLE CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES AND WIND SPEED/GUST SPEED.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE DUE TO POTENTIAL FOR
VARIABLE CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES AND WIND SPEED/GUST SPEED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE DUE TO POTENTIAL FOR
VARIABLE CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES AND WIND SPEED/GUST SPEED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE DUE TO POTENTIAL FOR
VARIABLE CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES AND WIND SPEED/GUST SPEED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN PERIODS OF RA. NW
WINDS G25-30KT POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT COASTAL/CITY TERMINALS.
.FRIDAY...MOST LIKELY VFR...WITH LOW CHANCE SPOTTY MVFR. NW WINDS
G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY. VFR. NW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOST LIKELY VFR...LOW CHANCE MVFR. W WINDS G20-25KT
POSSIBLE.
.SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...MOST LIKELY VFR...LOW CHANCE MVFR. NW WINDS
G25-30KT POSSIBLE.
.MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE SOUTHERN NJ COAST EARLY THIS EVENING WILL
CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY...
REACHING NEAR NOVA SCOTIA BY FRIDAY EVENING. LATEST SFC OBS
INDICATE WINDS STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY FCST...AND THE 18Z NAM AND
OTHER HI-RES MODELS ARE CAPTURING THE SITUATION WELL....INCLUDING
BRIEF EPISODE OF WINDS NEAR 50 KT OVER THE FAR ERN OCEAN WATERS
THIS EVENING. GALE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT FOR
ALL WATERS...AND FOR THE OCEAN WATERS INTO THU AFTERNOON.

SCA LEVEL GUSTS EXPECTED ON THE SOUND/HARBOR/BAYS ON THU. AS THE
LOW PULLS NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY THE WIND WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH SCA LEVEL GUSTS POSSIBLE INTO FRIDAY.
OCEAN SEAS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT THROUGH AT LEAST THU NIGHT.

STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT...PROBABLY SOME RESIDUAL SCA CONDITIONS ON THE
WATERS. THESE WILL LOWER TO BELOW SCA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY BUT WILL TREND BACK UP DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. SCA
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE SATURDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR
GALES SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. THESE LOWER BY LATER SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY BUT SCA CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER DOWN FROM WEST
TO EAST MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GENERALLY LIGHT RAIN WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING WILL TOTAL FROM AROUND 3/4 OF AN INCH ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
NEW JERSEY TO 1 1/4 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT.

NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FRI NIGHT THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-
     345.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MET/JM
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...GOODMAN/MET/JM
HYDROLOGY...MET/JM








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000
FXUS61 KBOX 222326
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
726 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN WILL AFFECT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING ALONG WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE EASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS COAST.  SHOWERS WILL LINGER FRIDAY AS THE STORM
SLOWLY PULLS AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND. SHOWERS POSSIBLE AGAIN
SATURDAY AS LOW PRES MOVES INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC. DRY...SEASONABLE
WEATHER RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
*** WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN WILL AFFECT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
  THURSDAY MORNING ALONG WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
  THE EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS COAST ***

730 PM UPDATE...WINDS HAVE INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH THE
EVENING WITH GUSTS UP TO 51 MPH AT LOGAN AIRPORT IN BOSTON.
THEREFORE...HAVE UPGRADED THE WIND ADVISORY TO A HIGH WIND WARNING
FOR THE IMMEDIATE MASSACHUSETTS COAST FROM PLYMOUTH UP TO ESSEX
COUNTY. STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE ESSEX COUNTY COAST
THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING. FURTHER INLAND...HAVE
KEPT THE WIND ADVISORY AS IS BUT WE ARE RECEIVING REPORTS OF
ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THROUGHOUT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BECAUSE OF
THE FULLY LEAVED TREES...THE HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ARE MORE
LIKELY TO DO DAMAGE TO TREES AND POWER LINES.

RAIN HAS OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE AREA WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN
CURRENTLY ACROSS CONNECTICUT...RHODE ISLAND...AND PARTS OF
SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS. EXPECT THESE HEAVIER BANDS TO CONTINUE
TO ROTATE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS THE COASTAL LOW GETS CLOSER
TO THE COAST.

MAIN UPDATES WITH THIS PACKAGE WERE TO THE WINDS AND THE HAZARDS.
OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS RIGHT ON. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

POTENT CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY TONIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO INTENSIFY AS IT SLOWLY
LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST PASSING NEAR THE BENCHMARK ON THURSDAY.
GIVEN THAT THIS SYSTEM HAS CLOSED MID LEVEL CIRCULATIONS...WERE
EXPECTING A BREAK DOWN IN PRECIPITATION FIELDS THAT WE OFTEN SEE
DURING WINTER STORMS.

1) HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL:

IN A NUTSHELL...PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION.  THE BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY IS TRYING TO LOCATE
WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN BANDS WILL SET UP.  THERE ARE A LOT OF
MOVING PARTS TO THIS FORECAST...WHICH MAKES THIS A DIFFICULT TASK.

WE EXPECT HEAVY RAIN TO INITIALLY OVERSPREAD SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND
AND WORK NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION THIS EVENING.
THE MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL THEN APPROACH SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND BY
LATE EVENING.  THIS MAY RESULT IN THE PRECIPITATION FIELD MORE
SCATTERED AT TIMES ACROSS SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OVERNIGHT...BUT ALSO
MORE CONVECTIVE GIVEN SOME ELEVATED CAPE. SO WHILE WE MAY SEE SOME
BREAKS IN THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ACROSS SOUTHEAST
SECTIONS...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE.  IN ADDITION...WE PROBABLY WILL SEE A SUBTLE
COASTAL FRONT SET UP ACROSS SOUTHEAST MA LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING SO SOME ENHANCEMENT IS POSSIBLE.

WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH FOR A SECOND AREA OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE/BACK BENT WARM
FRONT.  LOCATION OF THIS IS TRICKY BUT PERHAPS FURTHER BACK INTO
THE INTERIOR ACROSS  SOUTHERN NH AND EAST SLOPES OF BERKSHIRES?

FINALLY IN BETWEEN THE TWO BANDS OF HEAVIEST RAIN THERE WILL LIKELY
BE A MINIMUM.  SO BASICALLY...A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2.50 INCHES OF RAIN
IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE REGION...BUT LOCALIZED 4+ INCH AMOUNTS
ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE ACROSS A PORTION OF THE REGION.  WILL JUST
HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS OVERNIGHT AND
FINE TUNE OUR QPF FORECAST.  THE FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT ACROSS
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING IF THE
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE REALIZED.

2) TIMING:

HEAVY RAIN OVER SPREADS THE REGION FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST THIS
EVENING.  PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...WHICH WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE MORNING RUSH HOUR.  ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND NEAR THE DRY SLOT.  THE STEADIEST
RAIN SHOULD BE OVER BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE.

3) STRONG WIND POTENTIAL:

NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL JET OVER 50 KNOTS WILL IMPINGE ON EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.  IN FACT...BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SHOWING SOME PRETTY IMPRESSIVE WIND FIELDS BELOW 1000 FEET.  THE
UNCERTAINTY IS THAT AN INVERSION WILL ATTEMPT TO KEEP THE STRONGEST
WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK.  HOWEVER...HEAVY RAIN BANDS MAY BE ABLE TO
PULL BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS TO THE GROUND.  THE WIND ADVISORY
CONTINUES FOR NORTHEAST MA INTO COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY.  PROBLEMS
MAY BE EXACERBATED GIVEN THE MANY FULLY LEAFED TREES...RESULTING IN
SOME DOWNED TREE LIMBS AND EVEN ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES.  THERE
IS THE CHANCE THAT THE WIND ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED FURTHER
NORTHWEST...BUT AGAIN ITS UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH WIND WILL MIX DOWN.
THE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY MID MORNING ON THURSDAY AS THE LOW
LEVEL JET WEAKENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
* LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY
* SHOWERS POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY AS LOW PRES MOVES INTO QUEBEC
* MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK

OVERALL THE 12Z MODEL SUITE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
LONG TERM. THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE MESOSCALE DETAILS BUT
OTHERWISE THEY ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT.  AFTER THE COASTAL STORM
CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE REGION MOVES AWAY FROM SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...THE WEATHER STARTS TO DRY OUT AND BECOME MORE SEASONABLE.
THERE ARE A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION AND EACH OF THESE MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS WITH THEM.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE GULF
OF MAINE AND THEN THE MARITIMES FRIDAY.  WHILE THE BULK OF THE RAIN
WILL BE ENDING BY THURSDAY NIGHT...COULD SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS.
HOWEVER...WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST EARLY FRIDAY BRINGING
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION.  OVERALL EXPECT DRIER WEATHER
AND A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AS WE MOVE INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH
LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND INTO THE MARITIMES.
THE MODELS DON/T SHOW A WHOLE LOT OF MOISTURE OR A BIG WIND SHIFT
WITH THIS FRONT BUT WE COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS. THE GFS HAS A
STRONGER LOW LEVEL JET THAN THE ECMWF WHICH COULD ENHANCE THE AMOUNT
OF RAINFALL BUT THERE IS STILL MUCH TO BE SEEN WITH THIS SYSTEM.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND BRINGING DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER.  TEMPERATURES BEGIN
TO CLIMB AND MAY WARM TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
QUEBEC MAY BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH THIS FRONT BUT PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THU/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS IN PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN.  ISOLATED THUNDER LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND.
NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST
MA...WITH 50 KT GUSTS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...INCLUDING AT
KBOS. LLWS WILL ALSO AFFECT SOME OF THE AREA FOR A TIME.

THURSDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  IFR CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE
TO LOW END MVFR THRESHOLDS IN THE INTERIOR...BUT NOT MUCH
IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED ON THE COAST.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED AND THERE WILL REMAIN THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND...ESPECIALLY DURING THE FIRST PART OF
THE DAY.

KBOS...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS UP
TO 50 KNOTS TONIGHT.

KBDL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS MAY BRING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS BUT OVERALL A SLOW IMPROVEMENT
TO VFR EXPECTED.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.  LOW PROBABILITY
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

***20 FOOT SEAS AND STORM FORCE NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS CONTINUE
 INTO THURSDAY ACROSS THE EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS WATERS***

LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF
40 TO 50 KNOTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MASSACHUSETTS WATERS INCLUDING
BOSTON HARBOR THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING. STRONG WINDS AND LONG NORTHEAST FETCH WILL RESULT IN
20 FOOT SEAS ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR NORTHERN MASSACHUSETTS WATERS.
GALE FORCE NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  8 TO 11 FOOT SEAS WILL
SLOWLY DIMINISH AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE MARITIMES.  NORTHEAST
WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 30 KTS WILL DIMINISH AND SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST.  VISIBILITIES MAY BE REDUCED IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. AFTER A BRIEF LULL...SEAS
AND WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.  SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE
WATERS.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
DESPITE RATHER LOW ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE CYCLES LATE TONIGHT AND
AGAIN MIDDAY THURSDAY...OPTED TO ISSUE A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR A PORTION OF THE EASTERN MA COAST. THIS IS MAINLY FOR THE AREA
NORTH OF CAPE ANN AND THE SCITUATE AREA. A LONG DURATION OF
NORTHEAST WINDS COMBINED WITH 15 TO 20 FOOT SEAS ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN MA WATERS MAY YIELD POCKETS OF SPLASH OVER AND POCKETS OF
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. CERTAINLY NOT EXPECTING A SIGNIFICANT
COASTAL FLOOD EVENT...BUT FELT IT WAS WORTH AN ADVISORY.

IN ADDITION...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION ALONG
THE EXPOSED BEACHES FROM SALISBURY TO PLUM ISLAND.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR MAZ007-014>016-
     019.
     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR MAZ005>007-013>022-
     026.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR MAZ007-019.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR MAZ005-006.
NH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR NHZ012-015.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ231>237-254>256.
     STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ230.
     STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/RLG
NEAR TERM...FRANK/RLG
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...FRANK/RLG
MARINE...FRANK/RLG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...FRANK/RLG



  [top]

000
FXUS61 KALY 222309
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
709 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH PERIODS OF
RAINFALL. THE STEADIEST RAIN LOOKS TO OCCUR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME SUN ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 610 PM EDT...BOTH A SFC LOW AND A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
SITUATED JUST OFF THE DELMARVA REGION. THIS SYSTEM IS SLOWLY
DRIFTING TOWARDS THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND
THIS SYSTEM IS BRINGING PLENTY OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE UP AND AROUND
THE UPPER LOW AND INTO NEW ENGLAND. SOME SHOWERS HAVE MOVED FROM
EAST TO WEST ACROSS OUR AREA LATE THIS AFTN...AND THIS LOOKS TO
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WELL. 850 HPA
EASTERLY WIND ANOMALIES REACH 3-5 STD ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE
TONIGHT...SHOWING AN IMPRESSIVE PUSH OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM AN EASTERLY DIRECTION. BOTH OUR
LOCAL HIRESWRF AND THE 3KM HRRR SHOW THE SHOWERS EVOLVING INTO A
STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL BY LATE TONIGHT. SFC WINDS WILL
BE OUT OF THE NORTH AT AROUND 10 MPH...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS IN
THE HUDSON VALLEY...AS AIR IS FUNNELED DOWN BETWEEN THE TERRAIN.
RAINFALL WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT IN INTENSITY...ALTHOUGH A FEW
BRIEF PERIODS OF MORE MODERATE RAINFALL CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

WITH CLOUDY AND DANK CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...TEMPS WON/T DROP OFF
TOO MUCH FROM THEIR CURRENT READINGS. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO
MAINLY BE IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ON THURSDAY...THE STACKED LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE FROM JUST
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND TO SOUTH OF CAPE COD. THE CYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF CLOUDS
ACROSS OUR AREA. PERIODS OF STEADY RAINFALL EARLY IN THE DAY WILL
TURN INTO SHOWERS TOWARDS EVENING. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOL
DUE TO THE CLOUDS/RAIN...WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S...WARMEST IN SOUTHERN AREAS.

THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...AS THE LOW SLOWLY LIFTS TOWARDS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AND WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM. THE
STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
TOWARDS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT THERE STILL WILL BE SOME
SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME. IT LOOKS TO REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY AS
WELL...AS THERE WILL BE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. LOWS
ON THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...AND HIGHS
ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

CLOUDS MAY FINALLY START TO BREAK UP ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN
AREAS. MIN TEMPS ON FRI NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY INITIALLY UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS DURING THE WEEKEND BEFORE IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR THE
START OF NEXT WEEK.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE COASTAL LOW AND DEEP
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXITING NORTHEAST TO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...WITH THE FORECAST AREA UNDERNEATH A NORTHWEST FLOW
REGIME. A POTENT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL QUICKLY DIVE
SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN CANADA IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW SATURDAY AND
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST
OF THE CAPITAL REGION TO FAVORABLE UPSLOPE AREAS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. ENOUGH FORCING LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE TO MENTION WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION. SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO THE DAY SUNDAY AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND FOR THE START OF
NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHTS
RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION. DRY WEATHER AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY ALONG WITH SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS POTENTIALLY REACHING 70 ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY.

LONG TERM GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE HANDLING THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT THAT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE
COUNTRY AND MOVE EAST DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTION OF NEXT
WEEK. HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES...WITH THE 12Z GFS BEING
SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER THAN THE 12Z ECMWF DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF SLOWS THE FRONTAL
PROGRESSION AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THE WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE MID-HUDSON
VALLEY...BEFORE WARMING FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK INTO THE MID 50S
TO MID 60S ACROSS THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF THE DELMARVA
WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
PROVIDING A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

AS WE GO THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...ALL TAF SITES WILL EXPERIENCE VCSH
TO AT TIMES -RA CONDITIONS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY BEGINS TO
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE. AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE TAF PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FOR KALB/KPOU/KGFL ALONG
THE HUDSON VALLEY...NORTHERLY WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 20 KNOTS. WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE TO NEAR 10 KNOTS AS WE GO INTO THE OVERNIGHT. AS WE
GO PAST 06Z THURSDAY...SOME OF THE SAME AREAS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY COULD EXPERIENCE LOW CEILINGS AND MORE PERSISTENT RAINFALL
WITH IFR CONDITIONS. IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES TO MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE PAST 12Z WITH LOW CEILINGS BEING THE MAIN IMPACT.
NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW AFTER 12Z
TO THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 00Z FRIDAY FOR ALL TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS DUE TO A SLOW MOVING COASTAL LOW. PERIODS OF RAINFALL WILL
OCCUR AS WELL...ESP TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. AS A RESULT...RH VALUES
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED...MAINLY OVER 70 PERCENT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 5 TO 15 MPH OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

PERIODS OF RAINFALL WILL OCCUR THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. THE RAIN MAY BRIEFLY FALL MODERATE
IN INTENSITY AT TIMES. THROUGH FRIDAY...ABOUT AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF
RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY UP TO TWO INCHES ACROSS THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS IN SOUTHERN VERMONT.
DUE TO RECENT DRY WEATHER...THIS RAINFALL IS RATHER BENEFICIAL TO
THE REGION. THERE MAY BE SOME RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO
RIVER FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.  THERE MAY BE SOME
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS OR FIELDS...OR IN POOR DRAINAGE
LOCATIONS...BUT THIS SHOULD BE RATHER MINIMAL IN IMPACT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...LFM/11
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS








000
FXUS61 KALY 222309
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
709 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH PERIODS OF
RAINFALL. THE STEADIEST RAIN LOOKS TO OCCUR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME SUN ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 610 PM EDT...BOTH A SFC LOW AND A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
SITUATED JUST OFF THE DELMARVA REGION. THIS SYSTEM IS SLOWLY
DRIFTING TOWARDS THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND
THIS SYSTEM IS BRINGING PLENTY OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE UP AND AROUND
THE UPPER LOW AND INTO NEW ENGLAND. SOME SHOWERS HAVE MOVED FROM
EAST TO WEST ACROSS OUR AREA LATE THIS AFTN...AND THIS LOOKS TO
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WELL. 850 HPA
EASTERLY WIND ANOMALIES REACH 3-5 STD ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE
TONIGHT...SHOWING AN IMPRESSIVE PUSH OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM AN EASTERLY DIRECTION. BOTH OUR
LOCAL HIRESWRF AND THE 3KM HRRR SHOW THE SHOWERS EVOLVING INTO A
STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL BY LATE TONIGHT. SFC WINDS WILL
BE OUT OF THE NORTH AT AROUND 10 MPH...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS IN
THE HUDSON VALLEY...AS AIR IS FUNNELED DOWN BETWEEN THE TERRAIN.
RAINFALL WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT IN INTENSITY...ALTHOUGH A FEW
BRIEF PERIODS OF MORE MODERATE RAINFALL CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

WITH CLOUDY AND DANK CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...TEMPS WON/T DROP OFF
TOO MUCH FROM THEIR CURRENT READINGS. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO
MAINLY BE IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ON THURSDAY...THE STACKED LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE FROM JUST
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND TO SOUTH OF CAPE COD. THE CYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF CLOUDS
ACROSS OUR AREA. PERIODS OF STEADY RAINFALL EARLY IN THE DAY WILL
TURN INTO SHOWERS TOWARDS EVENING. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOL
DUE TO THE CLOUDS/RAIN...WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S...WARMEST IN SOUTHERN AREAS.

THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...AS THE LOW SLOWLY LIFTS TOWARDS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AND WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM. THE
STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
TOWARDS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT THERE STILL WILL BE SOME
SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME. IT LOOKS TO REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY AS
WELL...AS THERE WILL BE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. LOWS
ON THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...AND HIGHS
ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

CLOUDS MAY FINALLY START TO BREAK UP ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN
AREAS. MIN TEMPS ON FRI NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY INITIALLY UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS DURING THE WEEKEND BEFORE IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR THE
START OF NEXT WEEK.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE COASTAL LOW AND DEEP
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXITING NORTHEAST TO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...WITH THE FORECAST AREA UNDERNEATH A NORTHWEST FLOW
REGIME. A POTENT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL QUICKLY DIVE
SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN CANADA IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW SATURDAY AND
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST
OF THE CAPITAL REGION TO FAVORABLE UPSLOPE AREAS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. ENOUGH FORCING LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE TO MENTION WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION. SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO THE DAY SUNDAY AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND FOR THE START OF
NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHTS
RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION. DRY WEATHER AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY ALONG WITH SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS POTENTIALLY REACHING 70 ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY.

LONG TERM GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE HANDLING THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT THAT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE
COUNTRY AND MOVE EAST DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTION OF NEXT
WEEK. HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES...WITH THE 12Z GFS BEING
SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER THAN THE 12Z ECMWF DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF SLOWS THE FRONTAL
PROGRESSION AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THE WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE MID-HUDSON
VALLEY...BEFORE WARMING FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK INTO THE MID 50S
TO MID 60S ACROSS THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF THE DELMARVA
WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
PROVIDING A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

AS WE GO THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...ALL TAF SITES WILL EXPERIENCE VCSH
TO AT TIMES -RA CONDITIONS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY BEGINS TO
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE. AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE TAF PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FOR KALB/KPOU/KGFL ALONG
THE HUDSON VALLEY...NORTHERLY WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 20 KNOTS. WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE TO NEAR 10 KNOTS AS WE GO INTO THE OVERNIGHT. AS WE
GO PAST 06Z THURSDAY...SOME OF THE SAME AREAS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY COULD EXPERIENCE LOW CEILINGS AND MORE PERSISTENT RAINFALL
WITH IFR CONDITIONS. IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES TO MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE PAST 12Z WITH LOW CEILINGS BEING THE MAIN IMPACT.
NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW AFTER 12Z
TO THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 00Z FRIDAY FOR ALL TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS DUE TO A SLOW MOVING COASTAL LOW. PERIODS OF RAINFALL WILL
OCCUR AS WELL...ESP TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. AS A RESULT...RH VALUES
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED...MAINLY OVER 70 PERCENT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 5 TO 15 MPH OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

PERIODS OF RAINFALL WILL OCCUR THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. THE RAIN MAY BRIEFLY FALL MODERATE
IN INTENSITY AT TIMES. THROUGH FRIDAY...ABOUT AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF
RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY UP TO TWO INCHES ACROSS THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS IN SOUTHERN VERMONT.
DUE TO RECENT DRY WEATHER...THIS RAINFALL IS RATHER BENEFICIAL TO
THE REGION. THERE MAY BE SOME RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO
RIVER FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.  THERE MAY BE SOME
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS OR FIELDS...OR IN POOR DRAINAGE
LOCATIONS...BUT THIS SHOULD BE RATHER MINIMAL IN IMPACT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...LFM/11
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS








000
FXUS61 KALY 222212
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
612 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH PERIODS OF
RAINFALL. THE STEADIEST RAIN LOOKS TO OCCUR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME SUN ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 610 PM EDT...BOTH A SFC LOW AND A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
SITUATED JUST OFF THE DELMARVA REGION. THIS SYSTEM IS SLOWLY
DRIFTING TOWARDS THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND
THIS SYSTEM IS BRINGING PLENTY OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE UP AND AROUND
THE UPPER LOW AND INTO NEW ENGLAND. SOME SHOWERS HAVE MOVED FROM
EAST TO WEST ACROSS OUR AREA LATE THIS AFTN...AND THIS LOOKS TO
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WELL. 850 HPA
EASTERLY WIND ANOMALIES REACH 3-5 STD ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE
TONIGHT...SHOWING AN IMPRESSIVE PUSH OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM AN EASTERLY DIRECTION. BOTH OUR
LOCAL HIRESWRF AND THE 3KM HRRR SHOW THE SHOWERS EVOLVING INTO A
STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL BY LATE TONIGHT. SFC WINDS WILL
BE OUT OF THE NORTH AT AROUND 10 MPH...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS IN
THE HUDSON VALLEY...AS AIR IS FUNNELED DOWN BETWEEN THE TERRAIN.
RAINFALL WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT IN INTENSITY...ALTHOUGH A FEW
BRIEF PERIODS OF MORE MODERATE RAINFALL CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

WITH CLOUDY AND DANK CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...TEMPS WON/T DROP OFF
TOO MUCH FROM THEIR CURRENT READINGS. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO
MAINLY BE IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ON THURSDAY...THE STACKED LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE FROM JUST
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND TO SOUTH OF CAPE COD. THE CYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF CLOUDS
ACROSS OUR AREA. PERIODS OF STEADY RAINFALL EARLY IN THE DAY WILL
TURN INTO SHOWERS TOWARDS EVENING. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOL
DUE TO THE CLOUDS/RAIN...WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S...WARMEST IN SOUTHERN AREAS.

THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...AS THE LOW SLOWLY LIFTS TOWARDS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AND WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM. THE
STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
TOWARDS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT THERE STILL WILL BE SOME
SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME. IT LOOKS TO REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY AS
WELL...AS THERE WILL BE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. LOWS
ON THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...AND HIGHS
ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

CLOUDS MAY FINALLY START TO BREAK UP ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN
AREAS. MIN TEMPS ON FRI NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY INITIALLY UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS DURING THE WEEKEND BEFORE IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR THE
START OF NEXT WEEK.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE COASTAL LOW AND DEEP
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXITING NORTHEAST TO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...WITH THE FORECAST AREA UNDERNEATH A NORTHWEST FLOW
REGIME. A POTENT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL QUICKLY DIVE
SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN CANADA IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW SATURDAY AND
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST
OF THE CAPITAL REGION TO FAVORABLE UPSLOPE AREAS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. ENOUGH FORCING LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE TO MENTION WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION. SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO THE DAY SUNDAY AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND FOR THE START OF
NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHTS
RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION. DRY WEATHER AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY ALONG WITH SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS POTENTIALLY REACHING 70 ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY.

LONG TERM GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE HANDLING THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT THAT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE
COUNTRY AND MOVE EAST DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTION OF NEXT
WEEK. HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES...WITH THE 12Z GFS BEING
SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER THAN THE 12Z ECMWF DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF SLOWS THE FRONTAL
PROGRESSION AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THE WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE MID-HUDSON
VALLEY...BEFORE WARMING FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK INTO THE MID 50S
TO MID 60S ACROSS THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SPRAWLING COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF THE
DELMARVA WILL PROVIDE A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

AS WE GO THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...ALL TAF SITES WILL EXPERIENCE VCSH
TO AT TIMES -RA CONDITIONS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY BEGINS TO
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE...ESPECIALLY
AS WE GO PAST 00Z THURSDAY. AT THE BEGINNING OF THE TAF
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FOR KALB/KPOU/KGFL ALONG THE HUDSON
VALLEY...NORTHERLY WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 20 KNOTS. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE
TO NEAR 10 KNOTS AS WE GO INTO THE OVERNIGHT. AS WE GO PAST 06Z
THURSDAY...SOME OF THE SAME AREAS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY COULD
EXPERIENCE LOW CEILINGS AND MORE PERSISTENT RAINFALL WITH IFR
CONDITIONS. IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
PAST 12Z WITH LOW CEILINGS BEING THE MAIN IMPACT. NORTHERLY WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW AFTER 12Z TO THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD FOR ALL TAF SITES

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS DUE TO A SLOW MOVING COASTAL LOW. PERIODS OF RAINFALL WILL
OCCUR AS WELL...ESP TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. AS A RESULT...RH VALUES
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED...MAINLY OVER 70 PERCENT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 5 TO 15 MPH OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

PERIODS OF RAINFALL WILL OCCUR THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. THE RAIN MAY BRIEFLY FALL MODERATE
IN INTENSITY AT TIMES. THROUGH FRIDAY...ABOUT AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF
RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY UP TO TWO INCHES ACROSS THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS IN SOUTHERN VERMONT.
DUE TO RECENT DRY WEATHER...THIS RAINFALL IS RATHER BENEFICIAL TO
THE REGION. THERE MAY BE SOME RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO
RIVER FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.  THERE MAY BE SOME
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS OR FIELDS...OR IN POOR DRAINAGE
LOCATIONS...BUT THIS SHOULD BE RATHER MINIMAL IN IMPACT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...LFM
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS








000
FXUS61 KALY 222212
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
612 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH PERIODS OF
RAINFALL. THE STEADIEST RAIN LOOKS TO OCCUR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME SUN ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 610 PM EDT...BOTH A SFC LOW AND A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
SITUATED JUST OFF THE DELMARVA REGION. THIS SYSTEM IS SLOWLY
DRIFTING TOWARDS THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND
THIS SYSTEM IS BRINGING PLENTY OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE UP AND AROUND
THE UPPER LOW AND INTO NEW ENGLAND. SOME SHOWERS HAVE MOVED FROM
EAST TO WEST ACROSS OUR AREA LATE THIS AFTN...AND THIS LOOKS TO
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WELL. 850 HPA
EASTERLY WIND ANOMALIES REACH 3-5 STD ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE
TONIGHT...SHOWING AN IMPRESSIVE PUSH OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM AN EASTERLY DIRECTION. BOTH OUR
LOCAL HIRESWRF AND THE 3KM HRRR SHOW THE SHOWERS EVOLVING INTO A
STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL BY LATE TONIGHT. SFC WINDS WILL
BE OUT OF THE NORTH AT AROUND 10 MPH...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS IN
THE HUDSON VALLEY...AS AIR IS FUNNELED DOWN BETWEEN THE TERRAIN.
RAINFALL WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT IN INTENSITY...ALTHOUGH A FEW
BRIEF PERIODS OF MORE MODERATE RAINFALL CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

WITH CLOUDY AND DANK CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...TEMPS WON/T DROP OFF
TOO MUCH FROM THEIR CURRENT READINGS. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO
MAINLY BE IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ON THURSDAY...THE STACKED LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE FROM JUST
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND TO SOUTH OF CAPE COD. THE CYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF CLOUDS
ACROSS OUR AREA. PERIODS OF STEADY RAINFALL EARLY IN THE DAY WILL
TURN INTO SHOWERS TOWARDS EVENING. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOL
DUE TO THE CLOUDS/RAIN...WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S...WARMEST IN SOUTHERN AREAS.

THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...AS THE LOW SLOWLY LIFTS TOWARDS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AND WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM. THE
STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
TOWARDS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT THERE STILL WILL BE SOME
SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME. IT LOOKS TO REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY AS
WELL...AS THERE WILL BE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. LOWS
ON THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...AND HIGHS
ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

CLOUDS MAY FINALLY START TO BREAK UP ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN
AREAS. MIN TEMPS ON FRI NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY INITIALLY UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS DURING THE WEEKEND BEFORE IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR THE
START OF NEXT WEEK.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE COASTAL LOW AND DEEP
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXITING NORTHEAST TO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...WITH THE FORECAST AREA UNDERNEATH A NORTHWEST FLOW
REGIME. A POTENT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL QUICKLY DIVE
SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN CANADA IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW SATURDAY AND
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST
OF THE CAPITAL REGION TO FAVORABLE UPSLOPE AREAS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. ENOUGH FORCING LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE TO MENTION WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION. SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO THE DAY SUNDAY AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND FOR THE START OF
NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHTS
RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION. DRY WEATHER AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY ALONG WITH SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS POTENTIALLY REACHING 70 ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY.

LONG TERM GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE HANDLING THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT THAT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE
COUNTRY AND MOVE EAST DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTION OF NEXT
WEEK. HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES...WITH THE 12Z GFS BEING
SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER THAN THE 12Z ECMWF DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF SLOWS THE FRONTAL
PROGRESSION AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THE WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE MID-HUDSON
VALLEY...BEFORE WARMING FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK INTO THE MID 50S
TO MID 60S ACROSS THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SPRAWLING COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF THE
DELMARVA WILL PROVIDE A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

AS WE GO THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...ALL TAF SITES WILL EXPERIENCE VCSH
TO AT TIMES -RA CONDITIONS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY BEGINS TO
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE...ESPECIALLY
AS WE GO PAST 00Z THURSDAY. AT THE BEGINNING OF THE TAF
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FOR KALB/KPOU/KGFL ALONG THE HUDSON
VALLEY...NORTHERLY WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 20 KNOTS. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE
TO NEAR 10 KNOTS AS WE GO INTO THE OVERNIGHT. AS WE GO PAST 06Z
THURSDAY...SOME OF THE SAME AREAS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY COULD
EXPERIENCE LOW CEILINGS AND MORE PERSISTENT RAINFALL WITH IFR
CONDITIONS. IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
PAST 12Z WITH LOW CEILINGS BEING THE MAIN IMPACT. NORTHERLY WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW AFTER 12Z TO THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD FOR ALL TAF SITES

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS DUE TO A SLOW MOVING COASTAL LOW. PERIODS OF RAINFALL WILL
OCCUR AS WELL...ESP TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. AS A RESULT...RH VALUES
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED...MAINLY OVER 70 PERCENT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 5 TO 15 MPH OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

PERIODS OF RAINFALL WILL OCCUR THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. THE RAIN MAY BRIEFLY FALL MODERATE
IN INTENSITY AT TIMES. THROUGH FRIDAY...ABOUT AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF
RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY UP TO TWO INCHES ACROSS THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS IN SOUTHERN VERMONT.
DUE TO RECENT DRY WEATHER...THIS RAINFALL IS RATHER BENEFICIAL TO
THE REGION. THERE MAY BE SOME RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO
RIVER FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.  THERE MAY BE SOME
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS OR FIELDS...OR IN POOR DRAINAGE
LOCATIONS...BUT THIS SHOULD BE RATHER MINIMAL IN IMPACT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...LFM
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS








000
FXUS61 KBOX 222029
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
429 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN WILL AFFECT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING ALONG WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE EASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS COAST.  SHOWERS WILL LINGER FRIDAY AS THE STORM
SLOWLY PULLS AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND. SHOWERS POSSIBLE AGAIN
SATURDAY AS LOW PRES MOVES INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC. DRY...SEASONABLE
WEATHER RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR AND SHORT TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THURSDAY/...

*** WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN WILL AFFECT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
  THURSDAY MORNING ALONG WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
  THE EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS COAST ***

POTENT CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY TONIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO INTENSIFY AS IT
SLOWLY LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST PASSING NEAR THE BENCHMARK ON
THURSDAY.  GIVEN THAT THIS SYSTEM HAS CLOSED MID LEVEL
CIRCULATIONS...WERE EXPECTING A BREAK DOWN IN PRECIPITATION FIELDS
THAT WE OFTEN SEE DURING WINTER STORMS.

1) HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL:

IN A NUTSHELL...PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION.  THE BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY IS TRYING TO LOCATE
WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN BANDS WILL SET UP.  THERE ARE A LOT OF
MOVING PARTS TO THIS FORECAST...WHICH MAKES THIS A DIFFICULT TASK.

WE EXPECT HEAVY RAIN TO INITIALLY OVERSPREAD SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND
AND WORK NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION THIS EVENING.
THE MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL THEN APPROACH SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND BY
LATE EVENING.  THIS MAY RESULT IN THE PRECIPITATION FIELD MORE
SCATTERED AT TIMES ACROSS SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OVERNIGHT...BUT ALSO
MORE CONVECTIVE GIVEN SOME ELEVATED CAPE. SO WHILE WE MAY SEE SOME
BREAKS IN THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ACROSS SOUTHEAST
SECTIONS...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE.  IN ADDITION...WE PROBABLY WILL SEE A SUBTLE
COASTAL FRONT SET UP ACROSS SOUTHEAST MA LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING SO SOME ENHANCEMENT IS POSSIBLE.

WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH FOR A SECOND AREA OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE/BACK BENT WARM
FRONT.  LOCATION OF THIS IS TRICKY BUT PERHAPS FURTHER BACK INTO
THE INTERIOR ACROSS  SOUTHERN NH AND EAST SLOPES OF BERKSHIRES?

FINALLY IN BETWEEN THE TWO BANDS OF HEAVIEST RAIN THERE WILL LIKELY
BE A MINIMUM.  SO BASICALLY...A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2.50 INCHES OF RAIN
IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE REGION...BUT LOCALIZED 4+ INCH AMOUNTS
ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE ACROSS A PORTION OF THE REGION.  WILL JUST
HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS OVERNIGHT AND
FINE TUNE OUR QPF FORECAST.  THE FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT ACROSS
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING IF THE
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE REALIZED.

2) TIMING:

HEAVY RAIN OVER SPREADS THE REGION FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST THIS
EVENING.  PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...WHICH WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE MORNING RUSH HOUR.  ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND NEAR THE DRY SLOT.  THE STEADIEST
RAIN SHOULD BE OVER BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE.

3) STRONG WIND POTENTIAL:

NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL JET OVER 50 KNOTS WILL IMPINGE ON EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.  IN FACT...BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SHOWING SOME PRETTY IMPRESSIVE WIND FIELDS BELOW 1000 FEET.  THE
UNCERTAINTY IS THAT AN INVERSION WILL ATTEMPT TO KEEP THE STRONGEST
WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK.  HOWEVER...HEAVY RAIN BANDS MAY BE ABLE TO
PULL BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS TO THE GROUND.  THE WIND ADVISORY
CONTINUES FOR NORTHEAST MA INTO COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY.  PROBLEMS
MAY BE EXACERBATED GIVEN THE MANY FULLY LEAFED TREES...RESULTING IN
SOME DOWNED TREE LIMBS AND EVEN ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES.  THERE
IS THE CHANCE THAT THE WIND ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED FURTHER
NORTHWEST...BUT AGAIN ITS UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH WIND WILL MIX DOWN.
THE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY MID MORNING ON THURSDAY AS THE LOW
LEVEL JET WEAKENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
* LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY
* SHOWERS POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY AS LOW PRES MOVES INTO QUEBEC
* MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK

OVERALL THE 12Z MODEL SUITE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
LONG TERM. THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE MESOSCALE DETAILS BUT
OTHERWISE THEY ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT.  AFTER THE COASTAL STORM
CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE REGION MOVES AWAY FROM SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...THE WEATHER STARTS TO DRY OUT AND BECOME MORE SEASONABLE.
THERE ARE A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION AND EACH OF THESE MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS WITH THEM.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE GULF
OF MAINE AND THEN THE MARITIMES FRIDAY.  WHILE THE BULK OF THE RAIN
WILL BE ENDING BY THURSDAY NIGHT...COULD SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS.
HOWEVER...WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST EARLY FRIDAY BRINGING
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION.  OVERALL EXPECT DRIER WEATHER
AND A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AS WE MOVE INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH
LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND INTO THE MARITIMES.
THE MODELS DON/T SHOW A WHOLE LOT OF MOISTURE OR A BIG WIND SHIFT
WITH THIS FRONT BUT WE COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS. THE GFS HAS A
STRONGER LOW LEVEL JET THAN THE ECMWF WHICH COULD ENHANCE THE AMOUNT
OF RAINFALL BUT THERE IS STILL MUCH TO BE SEEN WITH THIS SYSTEM.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND BRINGING DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER.  TEMPERATURES BEGIN
TO CLIMB AND MAY WARM TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
QUEBEC MAY BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH THIS FRONT BUT PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THU/...

THIS AFTERNOON...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND WITH MAINLY MVFR IN THE INTERIOR.  LIGHT RAIN AND AREAS OF
DRIZZLE WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY OVER SPREAD WESTERN SECTIONS.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS IN PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN.  ISOLATED THUNDER LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND.
NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST
MA...PERHAPS A BIT HIGHER IN ESSEX COUNTY.  LLWS WILL ALSO AFFECT
SOME OF THE AREA FOR A TIME.

THURSDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  IFR CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE
TO LOW END MVFR THRESHOLDS IN THE INTERIOR...BUT NOT MUCH
IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED ON THE COAST.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED AND THERE WILL REMAIN THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND...ESPECIALLY DURING THE FIRST PART OF
THE DAY.

KBOS...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS UP
TO 40 KNOTS TONIGHT.

KBDL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  A PERIOD OF LLWS IS
LIKELY TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS MAY BRING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS BUT OVERALL A SLOW IMPROVEMENT
TO VFR EXPECTED.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.  LOW PROBABILITY
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

***20 FOOT SEAS AND GALE FORCE NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS CONTINUE INTO
  THURSDAY ACROSS THE EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS WATERS***

LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 35
TO 45 KNOTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MASSACHUSETTS WATERS INCLUDING
BOSTON HARBOR THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING.
STRONG WINDS AND LONG NORTHEAST FETCH WILL RESULT IN 20 FOOT
SEAS ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR NORTHERN MASSACHUSETTS WATERS. SCA
NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS
THROUGH THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL LIKELY BE A LULL IN THE
ACTION OVERNIGHT INTO THU MORNING AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TEMPORARILY
WEAKENS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  8 TO 11 FOOT SEAS WILL
SLOWLY DIMINISH AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE MARITIMES.  NORTHEAST
WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 30 KTS WILL DIMINISH AND SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST.  VISIBILITIES MAY BE REDUCED IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. AFTER A BRIEF LULL...SEAS
AND WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.  SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE
WATERS.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
DESPITE RATHER LOW ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE CYCLES LATE
TONIGHT AND AGAIN MIDDAY THURSDAY...OPTED TO ISSUE A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY FOR A PORTION OF THE EASTERN MA COAST.  THIS IS MAINLY FOR
THE AREA NORTH OF CAPE ANN AND THE SCITUATE AREA.  A LONG DURATION
OF NORTHEAST WINDS COMBINED WITH 15 TO 20 FOOT SEAS ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN MA WATERS MAY YIELD POCKETS OF SPLASH OVER AND POCKETS OF
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING.  CERTAINLY NOT EXPECTING A SIGNIFICANT
COASTAL FLOOD EVENT...BUT FELT IT WAS WORTH AN ADVISORY.  IN
ADDITION...SOME BEACH EROSION IS LIKELY ALONG THE EXPOSED BEACHES OF
SALISBURY AND PLUM ISLAND.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR MAZ005>007-013>022-
     026.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR MAZ005>007-014>016-
     019.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR MAZ007-019.
NH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR NHZ012-015.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ231>237.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ230.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/RLG
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...FRANK/RLG
MARINE...FRANK/RLG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...FRANK




000
FXUS61 KBOX 222029
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
429 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN WILL AFFECT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING ALONG WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE EASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS COAST.  SHOWERS WILL LINGER FRIDAY AS THE STORM
SLOWLY PULLS AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND. SHOWERS POSSIBLE AGAIN
SATURDAY AS LOW PRES MOVES INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC. DRY...SEASONABLE
WEATHER RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR AND SHORT TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THURSDAY/...

*** WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN WILL AFFECT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
  THURSDAY MORNING ALONG WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
  THE EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS COAST ***

POTENT CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY TONIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO INTENSIFY AS IT
SLOWLY LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST PASSING NEAR THE BENCHMARK ON
THURSDAY.  GIVEN THAT THIS SYSTEM HAS CLOSED MID LEVEL
CIRCULATIONS...WERE EXPECTING A BREAK DOWN IN PRECIPITATION FIELDS
THAT WE OFTEN SEE DURING WINTER STORMS.

1) HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL:

IN A NUTSHELL...PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION.  THE BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY IS TRYING TO LOCATE
WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN BANDS WILL SET UP.  THERE ARE A LOT OF
MOVING PARTS TO THIS FORECAST...WHICH MAKES THIS A DIFFICULT TASK.

WE EXPECT HEAVY RAIN TO INITIALLY OVERSPREAD SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND
AND WORK NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION THIS EVENING.
THE MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL THEN APPROACH SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND BY
LATE EVENING.  THIS MAY RESULT IN THE PRECIPITATION FIELD MORE
SCATTERED AT TIMES ACROSS SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OVERNIGHT...BUT ALSO
MORE CONVECTIVE GIVEN SOME ELEVATED CAPE. SO WHILE WE MAY SEE SOME
BREAKS IN THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ACROSS SOUTHEAST
SECTIONS...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE.  IN ADDITION...WE PROBABLY WILL SEE A SUBTLE
COASTAL FRONT SET UP ACROSS SOUTHEAST MA LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING SO SOME ENHANCEMENT IS POSSIBLE.

WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH FOR A SECOND AREA OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE/BACK BENT WARM
FRONT.  LOCATION OF THIS IS TRICKY BUT PERHAPS FURTHER BACK INTO
THE INTERIOR ACROSS  SOUTHERN NH AND EAST SLOPES OF BERKSHIRES?

FINALLY IN BETWEEN THE TWO BANDS OF HEAVIEST RAIN THERE WILL LIKELY
BE A MINIMUM.  SO BASICALLY...A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2.50 INCHES OF RAIN
IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE REGION...BUT LOCALIZED 4+ INCH AMOUNTS
ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE ACROSS A PORTION OF THE REGION.  WILL JUST
HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS OVERNIGHT AND
FINE TUNE OUR QPF FORECAST.  THE FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT ACROSS
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING IF THE
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE REALIZED.

2) TIMING:

HEAVY RAIN OVER SPREADS THE REGION FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST THIS
EVENING.  PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...WHICH WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE MORNING RUSH HOUR.  ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND NEAR THE DRY SLOT.  THE STEADIEST
RAIN SHOULD BE OVER BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE.

3) STRONG WIND POTENTIAL:

NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL JET OVER 50 KNOTS WILL IMPINGE ON EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.  IN FACT...BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SHOWING SOME PRETTY IMPRESSIVE WIND FIELDS BELOW 1000 FEET.  THE
UNCERTAINTY IS THAT AN INVERSION WILL ATTEMPT TO KEEP THE STRONGEST
WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK.  HOWEVER...HEAVY RAIN BANDS MAY BE ABLE TO
PULL BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS TO THE GROUND.  THE WIND ADVISORY
CONTINUES FOR NORTHEAST MA INTO COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY.  PROBLEMS
MAY BE EXACERBATED GIVEN THE MANY FULLY LEAFED TREES...RESULTING IN
SOME DOWNED TREE LIMBS AND EVEN ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES.  THERE
IS THE CHANCE THAT THE WIND ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED FURTHER
NORTHWEST...BUT AGAIN ITS UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH WIND WILL MIX DOWN.
THE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY MID MORNING ON THURSDAY AS THE LOW
LEVEL JET WEAKENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
* LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY
* SHOWERS POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY AS LOW PRES MOVES INTO QUEBEC
* MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK

OVERALL THE 12Z MODEL SUITE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
LONG TERM. THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE MESOSCALE DETAILS BUT
OTHERWISE THEY ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT.  AFTER THE COASTAL STORM
CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE REGION MOVES AWAY FROM SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...THE WEATHER STARTS TO DRY OUT AND BECOME MORE SEASONABLE.
THERE ARE A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION AND EACH OF THESE MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS WITH THEM.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE GULF
OF MAINE AND THEN THE MARITIMES FRIDAY.  WHILE THE BULK OF THE RAIN
WILL BE ENDING BY THURSDAY NIGHT...COULD SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS.
HOWEVER...WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST EARLY FRIDAY BRINGING
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION.  OVERALL EXPECT DRIER WEATHER
AND A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AS WE MOVE INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH
LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND INTO THE MARITIMES.
THE MODELS DON/T SHOW A WHOLE LOT OF MOISTURE OR A BIG WIND SHIFT
WITH THIS FRONT BUT WE COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS. THE GFS HAS A
STRONGER LOW LEVEL JET THAN THE ECMWF WHICH COULD ENHANCE THE AMOUNT
OF RAINFALL BUT THERE IS STILL MUCH TO BE SEEN WITH THIS SYSTEM.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND BRINGING DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER.  TEMPERATURES BEGIN
TO CLIMB AND MAY WARM TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
QUEBEC MAY BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH THIS FRONT BUT PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THU/...

THIS AFTERNOON...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND WITH MAINLY MVFR IN THE INTERIOR.  LIGHT RAIN AND AREAS OF
DRIZZLE WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY OVER SPREAD WESTERN SECTIONS.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS IN PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN.  ISOLATED THUNDER LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND.
NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST
MA...PERHAPS A BIT HIGHER IN ESSEX COUNTY.  LLWS WILL ALSO AFFECT
SOME OF THE AREA FOR A TIME.

THURSDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  IFR CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE
TO LOW END MVFR THRESHOLDS IN THE INTERIOR...BUT NOT MUCH
IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED ON THE COAST.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED AND THERE WILL REMAIN THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND...ESPECIALLY DURING THE FIRST PART OF
THE DAY.

KBOS...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS UP
TO 40 KNOTS TONIGHT.

KBDL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  A PERIOD OF LLWS IS
LIKELY TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS MAY BRING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS BUT OVERALL A SLOW IMPROVEMENT
TO VFR EXPECTED.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.  LOW PROBABILITY
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

***20 FOOT SEAS AND GALE FORCE NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS CONTINUE INTO
  THURSDAY ACROSS THE EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS WATERS***

LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 35
TO 45 KNOTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MASSACHUSETTS WATERS INCLUDING
BOSTON HARBOR THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING.
STRONG WINDS AND LONG NORTHEAST FETCH WILL RESULT IN 20 FOOT
SEAS ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR NORTHERN MASSACHUSETTS WATERS. SCA
NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS
THROUGH THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL LIKELY BE A LULL IN THE
ACTION OVERNIGHT INTO THU MORNING AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TEMPORARILY
WEAKENS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  8 TO 11 FOOT SEAS WILL
SLOWLY DIMINISH AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE MARITIMES.  NORTHEAST
WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 30 KTS WILL DIMINISH AND SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST.  VISIBILITIES MAY BE REDUCED IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. AFTER A BRIEF LULL...SEAS
AND WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.  SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE
WATERS.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
DESPITE RATHER LOW ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE CYCLES LATE
TONIGHT AND AGAIN MIDDAY THURSDAY...OPTED TO ISSUE A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY FOR A PORTION OF THE EASTERN MA COAST.  THIS IS MAINLY FOR
THE AREA NORTH OF CAPE ANN AND THE SCITUATE AREA.  A LONG DURATION
OF NORTHEAST WINDS COMBINED WITH 15 TO 20 FOOT SEAS ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN MA WATERS MAY YIELD POCKETS OF SPLASH OVER AND POCKETS OF
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING.  CERTAINLY NOT EXPECTING A SIGNIFICANT
COASTAL FLOOD EVENT...BUT FELT IT WAS WORTH AN ADVISORY.  IN
ADDITION...SOME BEACH EROSION IS LIKELY ALONG THE EXPOSED BEACHES OF
SALISBURY AND PLUM ISLAND.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR MAZ005>007-013>022-
     026.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR MAZ005>007-014>016-
     019.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR MAZ007-019.
NH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR NHZ012-015.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ231>237.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ230.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/RLG
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...FRANK/RLG
MARINE...FRANK/RLG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...FRANK




000
FXUS61 KOKX 222011
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
411 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE DELMARVA WILL DEEPEN AND TRACK
NORTHEAST...PASSING SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THE LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...REACHING THE CANADIAN MARITIME BY LATE FRIDAY. LOW
PRESSURE DOMINATES IN CANADIAN MARITIMES FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
CLOSED UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DEEPEN AND TRACK TO THE
NORTHEAST FROM OFF THE DELMARVA TONIGHT. WITH THE SYSTEM NEARLY
STACKED THE SURFACE LOW ALSO OFF THE DELMARVA WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
BACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT AND WILL BE
INCREASING POPS FROM EAST TO WEST THROUGH THE EVENING. LIGHT TO
OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAIN WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FLUCTUATE MUCH WITH THE RAIN AND
CLOUD COVER...AND NO CHANGE IN THE AIR MASS. TEMPERATURES FALL OFF
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW REMAINS CLOSED OFF AND BY LATE IN THE DAY THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT BEGINS TO GET PICKED UP BY THE WESTERLIES AND
MOVES A LITTLE QUICKER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MEANWHILE THE
SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DEEPEN INTO FRIDAY. BANDS OF RAIN
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
CATEGORICAL POPS EARLY SLOWLY LOWERING INTO THE AFTERNOON. AS THE
LOW PULLS TO THE NORTHEAST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ENDING FROM WEST SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST.
MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK AND LOW INTENSITY AND
A BLEND WAS USED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW WITH EQUIVALENT BAROTROPIC CHARACTERISTICS
NEAR NOVA SCOTIA FRIDAY NIGHT EVENTUALLY BECOMES DIFFUSE AND MERGES
WITH ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN SOUTHEAST CANADA DURING THE
WEEKEND.

SO ESSENTIALLY...LOW PRESSURE REMAINS IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN THE REGION
WITH MORE SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE SATURDAY WILL ALLOW
FOR A WARMER THAN NORMAL AIRMASS BUT A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL DELIVER ANOTHER COOL AIRMASS ON SUNDAY. IT EVEN
APPEARS THERE COULD BE A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON
SUNDAY...HELPING TO REINFORCE THE COOLER AIR.

EARLY NEXT WEEK RIDGING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE.
THE AIRMASS MODERATES TO WARMER THAN NORMAL ON AVERAGE. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FOR LATE NEXT WEDNESDAY.

QUITE A DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER FORECAST. THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED WITH A MORE NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE. THEREFORE IT COULD VERY WELL MOVE
THROUGH DRY WITH PERHAPS A SHOWER OR TWO BUT JUST SLIGHT CHANCES.
THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY SHOWN AND DESPITE THE LACK OF
MOISTURE...THE SHORTWAVE AND VORTICITY ADVECTION IS LARGE SATURDAY
NIGHT SO THIS COULD RESULT IN POSSIBLE CONVECTION BUT WITH
INSTABILITY OF GENERALLY LESS THAN 100 J/KG OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA...LEFT ANY MENTION OF THUNDER OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE PASSES JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING.

EXPECT PREDOMINATELY MVFR CEILINGS TODAY...BETWEEN 1 AND 2 KFT. A
FEW SPOTS HAVE SEEN IMPROVEMENT TO 2 TO 3 KFT.

MORE ORGANIZED RAIN IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE EAST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTH BETWEEN 12-16KT WITH GUSTS INTO
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 20 KT RANGE. WINDS BACK SLIGHTLY TO THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST TONIGHT.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS ARE LIKELY TODAY FOR WIND GUST
TIMING.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS TODAY.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS ARE LIKELY TODAY FOR STRONGER
WIND GUST TIMING.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CHANGING FLIGHT
CATEGORIES.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CHANGING FLIGHT CATEGORIES.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR WINDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS
THROUGH THE DAY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS IN PERIODS OF RA. N-NW WINDS G25-30KT POSSIBLE.
.FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...MOST LIKELY VFR...WITH LOW CHANCE SPOTTY
MVFR. NW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR. NW-W WINDS G25-30KT POSSIBLE.
.SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. NW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.MONDAY...VFR...NW-W WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WAS JUST EAST OF THE DELMARVA AT MID AFTERNOON...AND
WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY...REACHING NEAR NOVA SCOTIA BY FRIDAY EVENING. AS A RESULT
STRONG AND GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
WATERS. GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE LIKELY THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE
FORECAST WATERS WITH GALE GUSTS CONTINUING ON THE OCEAN WATERS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY THURSDAY. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS
SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY. AS THE LOW PULLS NORTHEAST
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY THE WIND WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH
SMALL CRAFT GUSTS POSSIBLE INTO FRIDAY. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL
REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT.

STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT...PROBABLY SOME RESIDUAL SCA CONDITIONS ON THE
WATERS. THESE WILL LOWER TO BELOW SCA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY BUT WILL TREND BACK UP DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. SCA
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE SATURDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR
GALES SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. THESE LOWER BY LATER SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY BUT SCA CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER DOWN FROM WEST
TO EAST MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GENERALLY LIGHT RAIN WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING WILL TOTAL FROM AROUND 3/4 OF AN INCH ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
NEW JERSEY TO 1 1/4 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT.

NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FRI NIGHT THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-
     345.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JM/MET
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...JM/MET
HYDROLOGY...JM/MET







000
FXUS61 KALY 222000
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
400 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH PERIODS OF
RAINFALL. THE STEADIEST RAIN LOOKS TO OCCUR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME SUN ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT...BOTH A SFC LOW AND A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
SITUATED JUST OFF THE VIRGINA CAPES/DELMARVA. THIS SYSTEM IS
SLOWLY DRIFTING TOWARDS THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. THE CYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND THIS SYSTEM IS BRINGING PLENTY OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE UP AND
AROUND THE UPPER LOW AND INTO NEW ENGLAND. SOME SHOWERS HAVE MOVED
FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS OUR AREA LATE THIS AFTN...AND THIS LOOKS
TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WELL. 850 HPA
EASTERLY WIND ANOMALIES REACH 3-5 STD ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE TONIGHT...SHOWING
AN IMPRESSIVE PUSH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM AN
EASTERLY DIRECTION. BOTH OUR LOCAL HIRESWRF AND THE 3KM HRRR SHOW
THE SHOWERS EVOLVING INTO A STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL BY
LATE TONIGHT. SFC WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH AT AROUND 10
MPH...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...AS AIR IS
FUNNELED DOWN BETWEEN THE TERRAIN. RAINFALL WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT IN INTENSITY...ALTHOUGH A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF MORE MODERATE
RAINFALL CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

WITH CLOUDY AND DANK CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...TEMPS WON/T DROP OFF
TOO MUCH FROM THEIR CURRENT READINGS. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO
MAINLY BE IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ON THURSDAY...THE STACKED LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE FROM JUST
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND TO SOUTH OF CAPE COD. THE CYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF CLOUDS
ACROSS OUR AREA. PERIODS OF STEADY RAINFALL EARLY IN THE DAY WILL
TURN INTO SHOWERS TOWARDS EVENING. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOL
DUE TO THE CLOUDS/RAIN...WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S...WARMEST IN SOUTHERN AREAS.

THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...AS THE LOW SLOWLY LIFTS TOWARDS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AND WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM. THE
STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
TOWARDS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT THERE STILL WILL BE SOME
SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME. IT LOOKS TO REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY AS
WELL...AS THERE WILL BE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. LOWS
ON THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...AND HIGHS
ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

CLOUDS MAY FINALLY START TO BREAK UP ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN
AREAS. MIN TEMPS ON FRI NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY INITIALLY UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS DURING THE WEEKEND BEFORE IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR THE
START OF NEXT WEEK.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE COASTAL LOW AND DEEP
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXITING NORTHEAST TO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...WITH THE FORECAST AREA UNDERNEATH A NORTHWEST FLOW
REGIME. A POTENT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL QUICKLY DIVE
SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN CANADA IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW SATURDAY AND
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST
OF THE CAPITAL REGION TO FAVORABLE UPSLOPE AREAS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. ENOUGH FORCING LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE TO MENTION WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION. SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO THE DAY SUNDAY AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND FOR THE START OF
NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHTS
RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION. DRY WEATHER AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY ALONG WITH SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS POTENTIALLY REACHING 70 ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY.

LONG TERM GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE HANDLING THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT THAT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE
COUNTRY AND MOVE EAST DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTION OF NEXT
WEEK. HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES...WITH THE 12Z GFS BEING
SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER THAN THE 12Z ECMWF DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF SLOWS THE FRONTAL
PROGRESSION AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THE WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE MID-HUDSON
VALLEY...BEFORE WARMING FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK INTO THE MID 50S
TO MID 60S ACROSS THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SPRAWLING COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF THE
DELMARVA WILL PROVIDE A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

AS WE GO THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...ALL TAF SITES WILL EXPERIENCE VCSH
TO AT TIMES -RA CONDITIONS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY BEGINS TO
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE...ESPECIALLY
AS WE GO PAST 00Z THURSDAY. AT THE BEGINNING OF THE TAF
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FOR KALB/KPOU/KGFL ALONG THE HUDSON
VALLEY...NORTHERLY WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 20 KNOTS. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE
TO NEAR 10 KNOTS AS WE GO INTO THE OVERNIGHT. AS WE GO PAST 06Z
THURSDAY...SOME OF THE SAME AREAS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY COULD
EXPERIENCE LOW CEILINGS AND MORE PERSISTENT RAINFALL WITH IFR
CONDITIONS. IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
PAST 12Z WITH LOW CEILINGS BEING THE MAIN IMPACT. NORTHERLY WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW AFTER 12Z TO THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD FOR ALL TAF SITES

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS DUE TO A SLOW MOVING COASTAL LOW. PERIODS OF RAINFALL WILL
OCCUR AS WELL...ESP TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. AS A RESULT...RH VALUES
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED...MAINLY OVER 70 PERCENT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 5 TO 15 MPH OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

PERIODS OF RAINFALL WILL OCCUR THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. THE RAIN MAY BRIEFLY FALL MODERATE
IN INTENSITY AT TIMES. THROUGH FRIDAY...ABOUT AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF
RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY UP TO TWO INCHES ACROSS THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS IN SOUTHERN VERMONT.
DUE TO RECENT DRY WEATHER...THIS RAINFALL IS RATHER BENEFICIAL TO
THE REGION. THERE MAY BE SOME RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO
RIVER FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.  THERE MAY BE SOME
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS OR FIELDS...OR IN POOR DRAINAGE
LOCATIONS...BUT THIS SHOULD BE RATHER MINIMAL IN IMPACT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...LFM
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS








000
FXUS61 KBOX 221805
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
200 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A SOAKING WIND SWEPT RAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN
INTENSIFYING COASTAL STORM. SHOWERS WILL LINGER FRIDAY AS THE STORM
SLOWLY PULLS AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND. MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

11 AM UPDATE...

*** A WINDSWEPT SOAKING RAIN WITH POTENTIAL FLOODING BEGINS LATE TODAY
    AND CONTINUES INTO TONIGHT ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND ***

PREVIOUS FORECAST IS PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK.  AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND
DRIZZLE ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND WILL EXPAND ACROSS WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON.  IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN SHIELD OF
HEAVY RAIN WILL WAIT UNTIL AFTER 4 OR 5 PM.  THIS IS SUPPORTED BY
THE LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS...WHICH SHOW THE SOAKING RAIN EXPANDING
ACROSS THE REGION FROM SOUTHEAST TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 4 AND 8 PM.

THE MAIN CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR
NORTHEAST MA.  THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A
NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL JET OF 50 KNOTS TONIGHT.  THIS SHOULD SUPPORT
GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS COASTAL ESSEX COUNTY.
GIVEN MANY FULLY LEAFED TREES...THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME DOWNED TREE
LIMBS AND PERHAPS EVEN ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES WILL BE EXACERBATED
ESPECIALLY WHEN COMBINED WITH HEAVY RAIN.

AS FOR THE FLOOD WATCH...WE DID ADD SOUTHERN BRISTOL/PLYMOUTH
COUNTIES TO THE PREVIOUS WATCH.  THIS WAS DONE TO INCLUDE
FALL RIVER AND NEW BEDFORD...WHICH ARE PARTICULARLY VULNERABLE TO
URBAN FLOODING.  WHILE ODDS STILL FAVOR NORTHEAST MA RECEIVING THE
HEAVIEST RAIN...THERE ARE SILL A FEW WILD CARDS.  THE FIRST IS A
COASTAL FRONT THAT MAY RESULT IN SOME LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MA.  IN ADDITION...AS THE DRY SLOT APPROACHES
APPEARS ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP TO RESULT IN
CONVECTION AND PERHAPS LOCALLY HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND.

THE BOTTOM LINE IS THIS STORM WILL DELIVER A SOAKING RAIN TO THE
REGION.  HOWEVER...GIVEN CLOSED MID LEVEL CENTERS WE WILL SEE
BANDING SETUP LIKE WE OFTEN DO IN THE WINTER TIME.  THIS COMBINED
WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY...LIKELY RESULTING IN LOCALIZED HIGHER
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THAN WHAT THE MODELS ARE PROJECTING.  THE MAIN
UNCERTAINTY IS EXACTLY WHERE THE HEAVY RAIN AXIS SETS UP...BUT THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME FLOODING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...

STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH FORMING THE TROWAL MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
YIELDING STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT. IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL JET OF 50
TO 60 KT FROM THE GULF OF MAINE INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND PROVIDES
STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. THIS LOW LEVEL WARM ANOMALY
WILL COMBINE WITH COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
TO YIELD A DEEP LAYER OF MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES. THIS WILL
LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS TO DEVELOP WITHIN
THE TROWAL AND INCREASE THE RISK FOR FLOODING.

GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT FOR A WIDESPREAD 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES OF RAINFALL
ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH RES MODELS SUCH AS THE W-ARW HAS UP TO 4" OF
RAINFALL ACROSS EASTERN MA NORTHWEST-WARD INTO SOUTHERN NH. THESE
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE STRONG JET DYNAMICS AND
INSTABILITY ALOFT. IN ADDITION WILL LIKELY SEE SOME RAINFALL
ENHANCEMENT ACROSS THE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE WORCESTER HILLS AND
MONADNOCKS. CONVERSELY MAY SEE SOME SHADOWING ON THE WEST SIDE OF
THIS HIGHER TERRAIN. GIVEN GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL OF 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES ALONG WITH RISK OF HIGHER AMOUNTS IN
CONVECTION AND FFG ONLY AROUND 3 INCHES WE ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH FOR
EASTERN MA AND SOUTHEAST NH.

IT WILL BE WINDY TONIGHT WITH NE WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
35 MPH...HIGHEST ACROSS NORTHEAST MA.

THURSDAY...

BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN WITHIN THE TROWAL WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
DURING THE MORNING. HOWEVER DRY SLOT SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE REGION IN
THE AFTERNOON WITH RAIN TRANSITIONING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
* LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON FRI
* MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER THIS WEEKEND

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
22.00Z MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE IS STARTING TO SHOW BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH NOT ONLY THE EXIT OF THE UPPER LVL CUTOFF THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK...BUT ALSO WITH THE SHORTWAVE THAT WILL ASSIST WITH THIS
SHIFT FOR THE WEEKEND. THE PREVIOUS DIFFERENCE IN TILT OF THIS
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE SEEMS TO HAVE BEEN RESOLVED SOMEWHAT. WITH
OPERATIONAL RUNS NOW DISPLAYING A BIT OF A NEGATIVE TILT.
THEREFORE...GIVEN THIS BETTER AGREEMENT A GENERAL BLEND OF
OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF SHOULD PROVIDE A GOOD BASELINE FOR THIS LONG
TERM UPDATE.

DEFINING THE LONG TERM...WILL INITIALLY BE THE EXITING CUTOFF AND
OCCLUSION. HOWEVER...AFTER BRIEF MESO-RIDGE YET ANOTHER ROBUST
WAVE AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND.
THEREFORE...EXPECT AN UNSETTLED START TO THE LONG TERM...FOLLOWED
BY GRADUAL DRYING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DETAILS...

THU NIGHT INTO FRI...
THE FIRST OF A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL FINALLY FORCE THE
STALLED UPPER LVL CUTOFF AND SFC LOW PRES TO BEGIN A SHIFT INTO
THE MARITIMES DURING THIS PERIOD. THU NIGHT...CONTINUED -SHRA
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AS THE REMNANT WARM CONVEYER REMAINS JUST
OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
AS WINDS TAKE ON A MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT...SUCH THAT LESS
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ON FRI...WITH EVEN A FEW MORE
BREAKS OF SUN POSSIBLE. THEREFORE..EXPECT GRADUALLY DECREASING
POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. MINS STILL ON THE MILD SIDE AS DWPTS
REMAIN ELEVATED THU NIGHT...BUT HIGHS ON FRI MAY BE A BIT WARMER
THANKS TO DIMINISHING ONSHORE FLOW AND CLOUD COVER. MAINLY UPPER
50S AND LOW 60S.

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...
POTENTIAL FOR A MAINLY DRY PERIOD HERE IS WEAK RIDGING BUILDS
ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN THE FIRST SHORTWAVE...AND A SLIGHTLY
STRONGER WAVE DIVING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA. MAINLY NW FLOW...WITH
TEMPS CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS...IF NOT A BIT WARMER THANKS TO
H85 AVERAGING ABOUT +5C. MAY SEE SOME HIGHS IN THE MID 60S.

SAT NIGHT THRU SUN...
SECONDARY ROBUST BUT FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH LOW PRES
THROUGH QUEBEC...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION LATE SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW ENOUGH MOISTURE /EVEN UNDER
NW FLOW/ FOR SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS WITH THIS FROPA. NOT EXPECTING
WIDESPREAD OR PARTICULARLY HEAVY SHOWERS GIVEN THE DRY NW FLOW. IN
FACT...SRN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY REMAIN MOSTLY DRY
THANKS TO ENHANCED DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TOWARD THE S COAST.
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS MOVES IN WITH THIS COLD FROPA...SO WILL
LEAN TEMPS TOWARD A COOLER THAN NORMAL HIGHS AND NEAR NORMAL LOWS.

MON AND TUE...
GUIDANCE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT HIGH PRES FINALLY IS ABLE
TO NOSE ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE S. THIS ALLOWS GRADUAL WARMING
THROUGH THE COLUMN AND DRY CONDITIONS. THE WARMING MAY YIELD H85
TEMPS NEAR +14C BY TUE EVENING. THEREFORE...WILL LIKELY SEE ENOUGH
WARMING TO YIELD TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL...POSSIBLY THE UPPER
60S TO NEAR 70 BY TUE.

WED...
GUIDANCE DIFFERS HERE ON THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
YIELDING SOLUTIONS OF A PASSAGE DURING THE DAY ON WED...TO DURING
THE DAY ON THU. THEREFORE...MAY AT LEAST HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR A SHOWER WITH THIS FROPA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THU/...

THIS AFTERNOON...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND WITH MAINLY MVFR IN THE INTERIOR.  LIGHT RAIN AND AREAS OF
DRIZZLE WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY OVER SPREAD WESTERN SECTIONS.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS IN PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN.  ISOLATED THUNDER LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND.
NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST
MA...PERHAPS A BIT HIGHER IN ESSEX COUNTY.  LLWS WILL ALSO AFFECT
SOME OF THE AREA FOR A TIME.

THURSDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  IFR CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE
TO LOW END MVFR THRESHOLDS IN THE INTERIOR...BUT NOT MUCH
IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED ON THE COAST.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED AND THERE WILL REMAIN THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND...ESPECIALLY DURING THE FIRST PART OF
THE DAY.

KBOS...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS UP
TO 40 KNOTS TONIGHT.

KBDL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  A PERIOD OF LLWS IS
LIKELY TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/FOG ARE
EXPECTED.

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT.  MAINLY VFR AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST.

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO BE PREDOMINANTLY VFR. A PERIOD
OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED SHOWERS.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE LATE DAY SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

***HIGH SEAS AND GALE FORCE NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS LIKELY TODAY AND
  TONIGHT ACROSS EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS ***

11 AM UPDATE...THE ONLY REAL CHANGE WAS TO UPGRADE BOSTON HARBOR
TO GALE WARNINGS BASED ON A STRONG NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL JET.

TODAY...NE GALES DEVELOP AROUND 15Z ACROSS THE CAPE ANN WATERS AND
CONTINUING THE REMINDER OF THE DAY. ELSEWHERE NE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
IN THE 20-25KT RANGE. HEAVY RAIN AND TSTMS ENTER THE SOUTHERN
WATERS THIS EVENING AND THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS OVERNIGHT.

TONIGHT...NE GALES LIKELY ACROSS CAPE ANN WATERS. SCA ELSEWHERE.
HEAVY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED TSTM ALL WATERS.

THU...HEAVY RAIN AND SCT TSTMS EXIT THE WATERS BY MIDDAY. NE WINDS
OVER THE CAPE ANN WATERS SHOULD EASE DURING THE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS ALL WATERS BUT
GRADUALLY DIMINISH FRI INTO FRI NIGHT. NW WINDS WITH GUSTS AROUND
25 KT POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY FRI...WITH SEAS RANGING 5-9FT
/HIGHEST AROUND CAPE ANN/ AND GRADUALLY DIMINISHING BY FRI NIGHT.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER. ALTHOUGH WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KT
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER SRN WATERS OUT OF THE NW.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS AND SEAS ONCE AGAIN INCREASE WITH SEAS REACHING 5-7 FT ON S
AND SE WATERS WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KT OUT OF THE NW. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY TO BE NEEDED AGAIN.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

DESPITE RATHER LOW ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE CYCLES LATE
TONIGHT AND AGAIN MIDDAY THURSDAY...OPTED TO ISSUE A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY FOR A PORTION OF THE EASTERN MA COAST.  THIS IS MAINLY FOR
THE AREA NORTH OF CAPE ANN AND THE SCITUATE AREA.  A LONG DURATION
OF NORTHEAST WINDS COMBINED WITH 15 TO 20 FOOT SEAS ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN MA WATERS MAY YIELD POCKETS OF SPLASH OVER AND POCKETS OF
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING.  CERTAINLY NOT EXPECTING A SIGNIFICANT
COASTAL FLOOD EVENT...BUT FELT IT WAS WORTH AN ADVISORY.  IN
ADDITION...SOME BEACH EROSION IS LIKELY ALONG THE EXPOSED BEACHES OF
SALISBURY AND PLUM ISLAND.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...FLOOD WATCH FROM 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MAZ005>007-013>021-026.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR MAZ007-019.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR MAZ005>007-014>016.
NH...FLOOD WATCH FROM 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NHZ012-015.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ231>235-
     237-254>256.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ230.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ236.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...FRANK/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...FRANK




000
FXUS61 KOKX 221756
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
156 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL SLOWLY DRIFT
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN LIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIME PROVINCES LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE REGION FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED VORT MAXES ROTATING THROUGH THE LOW WERE
MOVING SLOWLY TO THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WITH THE NORTHERN
PRECIPITATION SHIELD ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS WEAKENING
AND MOVING SOUTH WHILE SHOWERS WERE ROTATING NORTH INTO EASTERN
LONG. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
CURRENT TRENDS WITH THE LOW. CLOUDS PERSIST...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEARLY STEADY...AND DEW POINTS REMAIN CLOSE TO FORECAST.

THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW AS
TRACKS TOWARDS THE 40N 70W BENCHMARK THIS AFTN. THE NAM IS THE
FURTHEST N TODAY AND BECOMES THE FURTHEST W AND SLOWEST TO DEPART
ON THU.

HIGHS TODAY WERE A BLEND OF THE MOS GUIDANCE WHICH LOOKED
REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
LOW BECOMES NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED TONIGHT AND FRI AS IT
MEANDERS NEAR THE 40N 70W BENCHMARK. BEST CHC`S OF RAIN WILL BE
DURING THIS TIME. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A BAND PUSHES FROM
E TO W OVERNIGHT...THEN WEAKENS IN THE MORNING WITH ANOTHER VORT
MAX PRODUCING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS THU AFTN. THEREFORE HAVE LIKELY
TO CAT POPS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

STRONG NLY WINDS CONTINUE THIS EVE...THEN WEAKENS SLIGHTLY
OVERNIGHT AND THU AS THE PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS WITH THE LOW
NEARBY. IT WILL STILL REMAIN GUSTY HOWEVER...ALTHOUGH NOT AS
STRONG AS THIS AFTN AND EVE.

TEMPS TONIGHT AND THU WERE A BLEND OF THE MAV/ECS AS THE NAM
LOOKED TOO COLD WITH CLOUD COVER AND PCPN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED LOW APPROXIMATELY 130 MILES SE OF MONTAUK
POINT THURSDAY EVENING MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. SHOWERS TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
THIS TIME. ALTHOUGH MOST PRECIP SHOULD BE OVER BY LATE FRIDAY
MORNING...A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE NORTH AND EAST OF NYC
AS UPPER TROUGH/SHORTWAVE COMBO DEPART.

HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY BEFORE SAGGING
INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. ON SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. THAT FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. THINK
MOST PRECIP SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE AREA AND THE FRONT COMES
THROUGH DRY...BUT THE 00Z GFS/00Z ECMWF INDICATING SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AND
THEN MOVES OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY. DRY CONDS ON TAP FOR THE START OF
THE NEW WEEK...AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

HIGHS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL ON FRIDAY...TOPPING OFF IN THE
LOWER 60S...AND THEN WILL WARM UP SLIGHTLY ON SATURDAY INTO THE LOW
TO MID 60S. BEHIND COLD FRONT...TEMPS DROP BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S
AND LOW 60S ON SUNDAY...AND THEN TEMPS WILL BE MILDER FOR THE START
OF THE NEW WORK WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE PASSES JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING.

EXPECT PREDOMINATELY MVFR CEILINGS TODAY...BETWEEN 1 AND 2 KFT.
THERE IS A CHANCE WE COULD SEE SOME POSSIBLE IMPROVEMENT TO 2 TO
3 KFT THIS AFTERNOON.

MORE ORGANIZED RAIN MAY APPROACH FROM THE EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND INTO TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTH BETWEEN 12-16KT WITH GUSTS INTO
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 20 KT RANGE. WINDS BACK SLIGHTLY TO THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST TONIGHT.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS ARE LIKELY TODAY FOR WIND GUST
TIMING.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS TODAY.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS ARE LIKELY TODAY FOR STRONGER
WIND GUST TIMING.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CHANGING FLIGHT
CATEGORIES.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CHANGING FLIGHT CATEGORIES.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR WINDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS
THROUGH THE DAY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS IN PERIODS OF RA. N-NW WINDS G25-30KT POSSIBLE.
.FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...MOST LIKELY VFR...WITH LOW CHANCE SPOTTY
MVFR. NW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR. NW-W WINDS G25-30KT POSSIBLE.
.SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. NW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.MONDAY...VFR...NW-W WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
WIND AND SEAS FORECAST ON TRACK. POPS ACROSS THE WATERS ADJUSTED
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR CURRENT TRACK OF THE LOW MOVING EAST TO
SOUTHEAST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.

A GALE WARNING FOR THE OCEAN WATERS FROM 18Z THIS AFTN THROUGH
10Z TONIGHT REMAINS IN EFFECT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW OFFSHORE AND BELIEVE FREQ 35 KT GUSTS WILL
RESULT. THE GALE WARNING MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED INTO ERN LI SOUND
AND BAYS...JUST DID NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE IN FRQ 35 KT GUSTS
HERE. NO CHANGES TO THE SCA ON REMAINING WATERS IN EFFECT THROUGH
THE DAY THU.

GUSTY N-NW FLOW WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT CONTINUES THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SEAS AROUND 5 FT ON THE OCEAN. BY FRIDAY
NIGHT...CONDS SUBSIDE TO SUB-SCA CONDS AND SUB-SCA CONDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.

A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT...AND THEN NW
WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 KT ON SUNDAY WITH 4-6 FT SEAS ON THE OCEAN
WATERS.

HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS INTO THE WATERS FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORK
WEEK...AND TRANQUIL CONDS WILL RETURN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS CURRENTLY
OCCURRING DUE TO A BACKBUILDING STORM OFF THE SOUTH SHORE OF LONG
ISLAND. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT S AND E THIS MORNING
WITH SCT ACTIVITY LIKELY UNTIL LATE THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT.
ADDITIONAL BASIN AVG RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 3/4 ACROSS
WESTERN AREAS TO 1 1/2 INCHES IN EASTERN AREAS IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THU EVE.

MAINLY EXPECT NUISANCE URBAN OR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING WITH ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS AFTER THE ACTIVITY ENDS EARLY THIS MORNING.

LIGHT PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH ABOUT
1/10 INCH OF ADDITIONAL QPF.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...24/MPS
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...MET
HYDROLOGY...24/MPS







000
FXUS61 KOKX 221756
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
156 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL SLOWLY DRIFT
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN LIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIME PROVINCES LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE REGION FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED VORT MAXES ROTATING THROUGH THE LOW WERE
MOVING SLOWLY TO THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WITH THE NORTHERN
PRECIPITATION SHIELD ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS WEAKENING
AND MOVING SOUTH WHILE SHOWERS WERE ROTATING NORTH INTO EASTERN
LONG. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
CURRENT TRENDS WITH THE LOW. CLOUDS PERSIST...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEARLY STEADY...AND DEW POINTS REMAIN CLOSE TO FORECAST.

THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW AS
TRACKS TOWARDS THE 40N 70W BENCHMARK THIS AFTN. THE NAM IS THE
FURTHEST N TODAY AND BECOMES THE FURTHEST W AND SLOWEST TO DEPART
ON THU.

HIGHS TODAY WERE A BLEND OF THE MOS GUIDANCE WHICH LOOKED
REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
LOW BECOMES NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED TONIGHT AND FRI AS IT
MEANDERS NEAR THE 40N 70W BENCHMARK. BEST CHC`S OF RAIN WILL BE
DURING THIS TIME. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A BAND PUSHES FROM
E TO W OVERNIGHT...THEN WEAKENS IN THE MORNING WITH ANOTHER VORT
MAX PRODUCING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS THU AFTN. THEREFORE HAVE LIKELY
TO CAT POPS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

STRONG NLY WINDS CONTINUE THIS EVE...THEN WEAKENS SLIGHTLY
OVERNIGHT AND THU AS THE PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS WITH THE LOW
NEARBY. IT WILL STILL REMAIN GUSTY HOWEVER...ALTHOUGH NOT AS
STRONG AS THIS AFTN AND EVE.

TEMPS TONIGHT AND THU WERE A BLEND OF THE MAV/ECS AS THE NAM
LOOKED TOO COLD WITH CLOUD COVER AND PCPN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED LOW APPROXIMATELY 130 MILES SE OF MONTAUK
POINT THURSDAY EVENING MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. SHOWERS TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
THIS TIME. ALTHOUGH MOST PRECIP SHOULD BE OVER BY LATE FRIDAY
MORNING...A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE NORTH AND EAST OF NYC
AS UPPER TROUGH/SHORTWAVE COMBO DEPART.

HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY BEFORE SAGGING
INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. ON SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. THAT FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. THINK
MOST PRECIP SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE AREA AND THE FRONT COMES
THROUGH DRY...BUT THE 00Z GFS/00Z ECMWF INDICATING SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AND
THEN MOVES OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY. DRY CONDS ON TAP FOR THE START OF
THE NEW WEEK...AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

HIGHS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL ON FRIDAY...TOPPING OFF IN THE
LOWER 60S...AND THEN WILL WARM UP SLIGHTLY ON SATURDAY INTO THE LOW
TO MID 60S. BEHIND COLD FRONT...TEMPS DROP BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S
AND LOW 60S ON SUNDAY...AND THEN TEMPS WILL BE MILDER FOR THE START
OF THE NEW WORK WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE PASSES JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING.

EXPECT PREDOMINATELY MVFR CEILINGS TODAY...BETWEEN 1 AND 2 KFT.
THERE IS A CHANCE WE COULD SEE SOME POSSIBLE IMPROVEMENT TO 2 TO
3 KFT THIS AFTERNOON.

MORE ORGANIZED RAIN MAY APPROACH FROM THE EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND INTO TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTH BETWEEN 12-16KT WITH GUSTS INTO
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 20 KT RANGE. WINDS BACK SLIGHTLY TO THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST TONIGHT.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS ARE LIKELY TODAY FOR WIND GUST
TIMING.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS TODAY.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS ARE LIKELY TODAY FOR STRONGER
WIND GUST TIMING.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CHANGING FLIGHT
CATEGORIES.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CHANGING FLIGHT CATEGORIES.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR WINDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS
THROUGH THE DAY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS IN PERIODS OF RA. N-NW WINDS G25-30KT POSSIBLE.
.FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...MOST LIKELY VFR...WITH LOW CHANCE SPOTTY
MVFR. NW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR. NW-W WINDS G25-30KT POSSIBLE.
.SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. NW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.MONDAY...VFR...NW-W WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
WIND AND SEAS FORECAST ON TRACK. POPS ACROSS THE WATERS ADJUSTED
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR CURRENT TRACK OF THE LOW MOVING EAST TO
SOUTHEAST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.

A GALE WARNING FOR THE OCEAN WATERS FROM 18Z THIS AFTN THROUGH
10Z TONIGHT REMAINS IN EFFECT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW OFFSHORE AND BELIEVE FREQ 35 KT GUSTS WILL
RESULT. THE GALE WARNING MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED INTO ERN LI SOUND
AND BAYS...JUST DID NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE IN FRQ 35 KT GUSTS
HERE. NO CHANGES TO THE SCA ON REMAINING WATERS IN EFFECT THROUGH
THE DAY THU.

GUSTY N-NW FLOW WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT CONTINUES THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SEAS AROUND 5 FT ON THE OCEAN. BY FRIDAY
NIGHT...CONDS SUBSIDE TO SUB-SCA CONDS AND SUB-SCA CONDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.

A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT...AND THEN NW
WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 KT ON SUNDAY WITH 4-6 FT SEAS ON THE OCEAN
WATERS.

HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS INTO THE WATERS FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORK
WEEK...AND TRANQUIL CONDS WILL RETURN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS CURRENTLY
OCCURRING DUE TO A BACKBUILDING STORM OFF THE SOUTH SHORE OF LONG
ISLAND. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT S AND E THIS MORNING
WITH SCT ACTIVITY LIKELY UNTIL LATE THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT.
ADDITIONAL BASIN AVG RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 3/4 ACROSS
WESTERN AREAS TO 1 1/2 INCHES IN EASTERN AREAS IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THU EVE.

MAINLY EXPECT NUISANCE URBAN OR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING WITH ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS AFTER THE ACTIVITY ENDS EARLY THIS MORNING.

LIGHT PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH ABOUT
1/10 INCH OF ADDITIONAL QPF.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...24/MPS
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...MET
HYDROLOGY...24/MPS







000
FXUS61 KALY 221737
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
137 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TO THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY...AND THEN MOVES NORTHEAST TO THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY. A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND
INTERMITTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED FROM TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR
FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST RAIN EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 136 PM EDT...CLOUDY...DAMP AND COOL CONDITIONS CONTINUE
ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS AFTN. BOTH IR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS SFC LOW PRESSURE SITUATED OFF THE DELMARVA...WITH
PLENTY OF CLOUDS OCCURRING ACROSS OUR AREA WITHIN THE BROAD E-SE
FLOW AROUND THIS STACKED STORM SYSTEM. REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR SHOWS
JUST ONE BATCH OF SHOWERS CURRENTLY OVER OUR AREA ACROSS
WASHINGTON COUNTY...BUT PLENTY OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS UPSTREAM OVER
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON...THESE
SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS OUR AREA FROM EAST TO WEST...SO WILL
CONTINUE TO GO WITH HIGH POPS FOR LATE TODAY. OUTSIDE OF THESE
SHOWERS...SOME LIGHT SPRINKLES OR DRIZZLE WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AS
WELL...ALONG WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN COOL AND HOLD FAIRLY STEADY...MAINLY IN THE MID
40S TO MID 50S. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WILL MAKE
IT FEEL EVEN COLDER AS WELL...ESP FOR THE HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE GULF OR MAINE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT OF
PCPN MOST OF THIS TIME PERIOD. POPS HAVE BEEN FORECAST TO RISE TO
CATEGORICAL LEVELS EARLY TONIGHT...AND REMAIN HIGH THROUGH MOST OF
THURSDAY.

THERE IS SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT AS TO HOW HEAVY AND HOW LONG PCPN
WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...SO HAVE
TAKEN A CONSENSUS APPROACH AND LOWER POPS THURSDAY NIGHT...DROPPING
TO CHANCE LEVELS BY SUNRISE FRIDAY. ON FRIDAY...POPS ARE FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TO DECREASE...REACHING ONLY 20 TO 30 PERCENT BY LATE IN THE
DAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY UNIFORM ACROSS THE REGION AND NOT VARY
MUCH BETWEEN HIGHS AND LOWS. LOWS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE
IN THE LOW OR MID 40S...WITH SOME UPPER 40S ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN
AREAS. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. FRIDAY IS
THE TRICKIER DAY IN TERMS OF TEMP FORECASTS. FOR NOW HAVE FORECAST
HIGHS IN THE 50S...BUT IF CLOUDS AND PCPN PERSIST AS SOME MODELS
SUGGEST...THEN HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE 5 TO 8 DEGREES COLDER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH THE COASTAL LOW THAT WILL HAVE IMPACTED
THE REGION MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK FINALLY PULLING AWAY INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES FRIDAY NIGHT. SHORT WAVE RIDGING INTO SATURDAY
MORNING WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING TO BE ABOVE NORMAL. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW RAPIDLY APPROACHES FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA. IT
WILL BE MILD FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.

THE UPPER LOW WILL TRACK INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH GENERALLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT. MOST OF THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH A NORTHWEST
FLOW REGIME FAVORING UPSLOPE ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND
SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE DUE TO DECENT JET DYNAMICS DESPITE LACK OF
MOISTURE. DEPENDING ON HOW MANY BREAKS OF SUNSHINE OCCUR ON
SUNDAY...TEMPS COULD END UP SLIGHTLY COOLER OR MUCH COOLER THAN
SATURDAY IN THE COLD ADVECTION REGIME ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER
LOW. WILL STILL MENTION SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY WRAP-AROUND/UPSLOPE SHOWERS. VALLEY
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF ALBANY SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AS A
SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. WITH THE HIGH
CRESTING TO OUR SOUTH MONDAY AFTERNOON...A WESTERLY FLOW COMBINED
WITH WARMING ALOFT SHOULD PROMOTE DECENT MIXING FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. TEMPS SHOULD RESPOND BY WARMING INTO THE LOWER 60S IN THE
VALLEYS. AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST...AN EVEN WARMER SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME WILL SET
UP FOR TUESDAY...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO POTENTIALLY REACH THE
MID TO UPPER 60S WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SPRAWLING COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF THE
DELMARVA WILL PROVIDE A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

AS WE GO THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...ALL TAF SITES WILL EXPERIENCE VCSH
TO AT TIMES -RA CONDITIONS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY BEGINS TO
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE...ESPECIALLY
AS WE GO PAST 00Z THURSDAY. AT THE BEGINNING OF THE TAF
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FOR KALB/KPOU/KGFL ALONG THE HUDSON
VALLEY...NORTHERLY WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 20 KNOTS. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE
TO NEAR 10 KNOTS AS WE GO INTO THE OVERNIGHT. AS WE GO PAST 06Z
THURSDAY...SOME OF THE SAME AREAS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY COULD
EXPERIENCE LOW CEILINGS AND MORE PERSISTENT RAINFALL WITH IFR
CONDITIONS. IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
PAST 12Z WITH LOW CEILINGS BEING THE MAIN IMPACT. NORTHERLY WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW AFTER 12Z TO THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD FOR ALL TAF SITES

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TO THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY...AND THEN MOVES NORTHEAST TO THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY. A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND
INTERMITTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED FROM TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR
FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...EVEN THOUGH WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED AND WET AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF SOUTH AND EAST THE REGION. OCCASIONAL RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED FROM TODAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST AND
HEAVIEST RAINFALL EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

WITH THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR...ESP TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO
TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA
DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS EVOLUTION...AND TRACK...WITH LOCALIZED
AMOUNTS UP TO THREE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...THIS RAINFALL WOULD OCCUR
OVER THE PERIOD OF A FEW DAYS...SO NO WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE HIGHEST
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WOULD BE FAVORED ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...ESP SOUTHERN VT...AND POSSIBLY THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/GJM
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...LFM
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM








000
FXUS61 KALY 221737
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
137 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TO THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY...AND THEN MOVES NORTHEAST TO THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY. A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND
INTERMITTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED FROM TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR
FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST RAIN EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 136 PM EDT...CLOUDY...DAMP AND COOL CONDITIONS CONTINUE
ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS AFTN. BOTH IR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS SFC LOW PRESSURE SITUATED OFF THE DELMARVA...WITH
PLENTY OF CLOUDS OCCURRING ACROSS OUR AREA WITHIN THE BROAD E-SE
FLOW AROUND THIS STACKED STORM SYSTEM. REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR SHOWS
JUST ONE BATCH OF SHOWERS CURRENTLY OVER OUR AREA ACROSS
WASHINGTON COUNTY...BUT PLENTY OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS UPSTREAM OVER
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON...THESE
SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS OUR AREA FROM EAST TO WEST...SO WILL
CONTINUE TO GO WITH HIGH POPS FOR LATE TODAY. OUTSIDE OF THESE
SHOWERS...SOME LIGHT SPRINKLES OR DRIZZLE WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AS
WELL...ALONG WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN COOL AND HOLD FAIRLY STEADY...MAINLY IN THE MID
40S TO MID 50S. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WILL MAKE
IT FEEL EVEN COLDER AS WELL...ESP FOR THE HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE GULF OR MAINE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT OF
PCPN MOST OF THIS TIME PERIOD. POPS HAVE BEEN FORECAST TO RISE TO
CATEGORICAL LEVELS EARLY TONIGHT...AND REMAIN HIGH THROUGH MOST OF
THURSDAY.

THERE IS SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT AS TO HOW HEAVY AND HOW LONG PCPN
WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...SO HAVE
TAKEN A CONSENSUS APPROACH AND LOWER POPS THURSDAY NIGHT...DROPPING
TO CHANCE LEVELS BY SUNRISE FRIDAY. ON FRIDAY...POPS ARE FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TO DECREASE...REACHING ONLY 20 TO 30 PERCENT BY LATE IN THE
DAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY UNIFORM ACROSS THE REGION AND NOT VARY
MUCH BETWEEN HIGHS AND LOWS. LOWS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE
IN THE LOW OR MID 40S...WITH SOME UPPER 40S ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN
AREAS. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. FRIDAY IS
THE TRICKIER DAY IN TERMS OF TEMP FORECASTS. FOR NOW HAVE FORECAST
HIGHS IN THE 50S...BUT IF CLOUDS AND PCPN PERSIST AS SOME MODELS
SUGGEST...THEN HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE 5 TO 8 DEGREES COLDER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH THE COASTAL LOW THAT WILL HAVE IMPACTED
THE REGION MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK FINALLY PULLING AWAY INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES FRIDAY NIGHT. SHORT WAVE RIDGING INTO SATURDAY
MORNING WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING TO BE ABOVE NORMAL. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW RAPIDLY APPROACHES FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA. IT
WILL BE MILD FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.

THE UPPER LOW WILL TRACK INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH GENERALLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT. MOST OF THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH A NORTHWEST
FLOW REGIME FAVORING UPSLOPE ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND
SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE DUE TO DECENT JET DYNAMICS DESPITE LACK OF
MOISTURE. DEPENDING ON HOW MANY BREAKS OF SUNSHINE OCCUR ON
SUNDAY...TEMPS COULD END UP SLIGHTLY COOLER OR MUCH COOLER THAN
SATURDAY IN THE COLD ADVECTION REGIME ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER
LOW. WILL STILL MENTION SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY WRAP-AROUND/UPSLOPE SHOWERS. VALLEY
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF ALBANY SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AS A
SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. WITH THE HIGH
CRESTING TO OUR SOUTH MONDAY AFTERNOON...A WESTERLY FLOW COMBINED
WITH WARMING ALOFT SHOULD PROMOTE DECENT MIXING FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. TEMPS SHOULD RESPOND BY WARMING INTO THE LOWER 60S IN THE
VALLEYS. AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST...AN EVEN WARMER SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME WILL SET
UP FOR TUESDAY...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO POTENTIALLY REACH THE
MID TO UPPER 60S WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SPRAWLING COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF THE
DELMARVA WILL PROVIDE A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

AS WE GO THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...ALL TAF SITES WILL EXPERIENCE VCSH
TO AT TIMES -RA CONDITIONS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY BEGINS TO
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE...ESPECIALLY
AS WE GO PAST 00Z THURSDAY. AT THE BEGINNING OF THE TAF
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FOR KALB/KPOU/KGFL ALONG THE HUDSON
VALLEY...NORTHERLY WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 20 KNOTS. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE
TO NEAR 10 KNOTS AS WE GO INTO THE OVERNIGHT. AS WE GO PAST 06Z
THURSDAY...SOME OF THE SAME AREAS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY COULD
EXPERIENCE LOW CEILINGS AND MORE PERSISTENT RAINFALL WITH IFR
CONDITIONS. IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
PAST 12Z WITH LOW CEILINGS BEING THE MAIN IMPACT. NORTHERLY WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW AFTER 12Z TO THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD FOR ALL TAF SITES

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TO THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY...AND THEN MOVES NORTHEAST TO THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY. A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND
INTERMITTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED FROM TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR
FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...EVEN THOUGH WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED AND WET AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF SOUTH AND EAST THE REGION. OCCASIONAL RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED FROM TODAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST AND
HEAVIEST RAINFALL EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

WITH THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR...ESP TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO
TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA
DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS EVOLUTION...AND TRACK...WITH LOCALIZED
AMOUNTS UP TO THREE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...THIS RAINFALL WOULD OCCUR
OVER THE PERIOD OF A FEW DAYS...SO NO WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE HIGHEST
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WOULD BE FAVORED ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...ESP SOUTHERN VT...AND POSSIBLY THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/GJM
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...LFM
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM








000
FXUS61 KBOX 221500
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1100 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW CLOUDS...FOG AND SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE THIS MORNING WILL BE
REPLACED BY A SOAKING WIND SWEPT RAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON...TONIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN INTENSIFYING COASTAL
STORM. SHOWERS WILL LINGER FRIDAY AS THE STORM SLOWLY PULLS AWAY
FROM NEW ENGLAND. MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

11 AM UPDATE...

*** A WINDSWEPT SOAKING RAIN WITH POTENTIAL FLOODING BEGINS LATE TODAY
    AND CONTINUES INTO TONIGHT ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND ***

PREVIOUS FORECAST IS PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK.  AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND
DRIZZLE ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND WILL EXPAND ACROSS WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON.  IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN SHIELD OF
HEAVY RAIN WILL WAIT UNTIL AFTER 4 OR 5 PM.  THIS IS SUPPORTED BY
THE LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS...WHICH SHOW THE SOAKING RAIN EXPANDING
ACROSS THE REGION FROM SOUTHEAST TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 4 AND 8 PM.

THE MAIN CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR
NORTHEAST MA.  THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A
NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL JET OF 50 KNOTS TONIGHT.  THIS SHOULD SUPPORT
GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS COASTAL ESSEX COUNTY.
GIVEN MANY FULLY LEAFED TREES...THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME DOWNED TREE
LIMBS AND PERHAPS EVEN ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES WILL BE EXACERBATED
ESPECIALLY WHEN COMBINED WITH HEAVY RAIN.

AS FOR THE FLOOD WATCH...WE DID ADD SOUTHERN BRISTOL/PLYMOUTH
COUNTIES TO THE PREVIOUS WATCH.  THIS WAS DONE TO INCLUDE
FALL RIVER AND NEW BEDFORD...WHICH ARE PARTICULARLY VULERNABLE TO
URBAN FLOODING.  WHILE ODDS STILL FAVOR NORTHEAST MA RECEIVING THE
HEAVIEST RAIN...THERE ARE SILL A FEW WILD CARDS.  THE FIRST IS A
COASTAL FRONT THAT MAY RESULT IN SOME LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MA.  IN ADDITION...AS THE DRY SLOT APPROACHES
APPEARS ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP TO RESULT IN
CONVECTION AND PERHAPS LOCALLY HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND.

THE BOTTOM LINE IS THIS STORM WILL DELIVER A SOAKING RAIN TO THE
REGION.  HOWEVER...GIVEN CLOSED MID LEVEL CENTERS WE WILL SEE
BANDING SETUP LIKE WE OFTEN DO IN THE WINTER TIME.  THIS COMBINED
WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY...LIKELY RESULTING IN LOCALIZED HIGHER
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THAN WHAT THE MODELS ARE PROJECTING.  THE MAIN
UNCERTAINTY IS EXACTLY WHERE THE HEAVY RAIN AXIS SETS UP...BUT THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME FLOODING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...

STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH FORMING THE TROWAL MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
YIELDING STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT. IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL JET OF 50
TO 60 KT FROM THE GULF OF MAINE INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND PROVIDES
STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. THIS LOW LEVEL WARM ANOMALY
WILL COMBINE WITH COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
TO YIELD A DEEP LAYER OF MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES. THIS WILL
LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS TO DEVELOP WITHIN
THE TROWAL AND INCREASE THE RISK FOR FLOODING.

GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT FOR A WIDESPREAD 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES OF RAINFALL
ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH RES MODELS SUCH AS THE W-ARW HAS UP TO 4" OF
RAINFALL ACROSS EASTERN MA NORTHWEST-WARD INTO SOUTHERN NH. THESE
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE STRONG JET DYNAMICS AND
INSTABILITY ALOFT. IN ADDITION WILL LIKELY SEE SOME RAINFALL
ENHANCEMENT ACROSS THE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE WORCESTER HILLS AND
MONADNOCKS. CONVERSELY MAY SEE SOME SHADOWING ON THE WEST SIDE OF
THIS HIGHER TERRAIN. GIVEN GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL OF 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES ALONG WITH RISK OF HIGHER AMOUNTS IN
CONVECTION AND FFG ONLY AROUND 3 INCHES WE ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH FOR
EASTERN MA AND SOUTHEAST NH.

IT WILL BE WINDY TONIGHT WITH NE WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
35 MPH...HIGHEST ACROSS NORTHEAST MA.

THURSDAY...

BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN WITHIN THE TROWAL WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
DURING THE MORNING. HOWEVER DRY SLOT SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE REGION IN
THE AFTERNOON WITH RAIN TRANSITIONING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
* LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON FRI
* MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER THIS WEEKEND

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
22.00Z MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE IS STARTING TO SHOW BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH NOT ONLY THE EXIT OF THE UPPER LVL CUTOFF THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK...BUT ALSO WITH THE SHORTWAVE THAT WILL ASSIST WITH THIS
SHIFT FOR THE WEEKEND. THE PREVIOUS DIFFERENCE IN TILT OF THIS
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE SEEMS TO HAVE BEEN RESOLVED SOMEWHAT. WITH
OPERATIONAL RUNS NOW DISPLAYING A BIT OF A NEGATIVE TILT.
THEREFORE...GIVEN THIS BETTER AGREEMENT A GENERAL BLEND OF
OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF SHOULD PROVIDE A GOOD BASELINE FOR THIS LONG
TERM UPDATE.

DEFINING THE LONG TERM...WILL INITIALLY BE THE EXITING CUTOFF AND
OCCLUSION. HOWEVER...AFTER BRIEF MESO-RIDGE YET ANOTHER ROBUST
WAVE AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND.
THEREFORE...EXPECT AN UNSETTLED START TO THE LONG TERM...FOLLOWED
BY GRADUAL DRYING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DETAILS...

THU NIGHT INTO FRI...
THE FIRST OF A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL FINALLY FORCE THE
STALLED UPPER LVL CUTOFF AND SFC LOW PRES TO BEGIN A SHIFT INTO
THE MARITIMES DURING THIS PERIOD. THU NIGHT...CONTINUED -SHRA
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AS THE REMNANT WARM CONVEYOR REMAINS JUST
OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
AS WINDS TAKE ON A MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT...SUCH THAT LESS
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ON FRI...WITH EVEN A FEW MORE
BREAKS OF SUN POSSIBLE. THEREFORE..EXPECT GRADUALLY DECREASING
POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. MINS STILL ON THE MILD SIDE AS DWPTS
REMAIN ELEVATED THU NIGHT...BUT HIGHS ON FRI MAY BE A BIT WARMER
THANKS TO DIMINISHING ONSHORE FLOW AND CLOUD COVER. MAINLY UPPER
50S AND LOW 60S.

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...
POTENTIAL FOR A MAINLY DRY PERIOD HERE IS WEAK RIDGING BUILDS
ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN THE FIRST SHORTWAVE...AND A SLIGHTLY
STRONGER WAVE DIVING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA. MAINLY NW FLOW...WITH
TEMPS CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS...IF NOT A BIT WARMER THANKS TO
H85 AVERAGING ABOUT +5C. MAY SEE SOME HIGHS IN THE MID 60S.

SAT NIGHT THRU SUN...
SECONDARY ROBUST BUT FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH LOW PRES
THROUGH QUEBEC...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION LATE SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW ENOUGH MOISTURE /EVEN UNDER
NW FLOW/ FOR SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS WITH THIS FROPA. NOT EXPECTING
WIDESPREAD OR PARTICULARLY HEAVY SHOWERS GIVEN THE DRY NW FLOW. IN
FACT...SRN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY REMAIN MOSTLY DRY
THANKS TO ENHANCED DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TOWARD THE S COAST.
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS MOVES IN WITH THIS COLD FROPA...SO WILL
LEAN TEMPS TOWARD A COOLER THAN NORMAL HIGHS AND NEAR NORMAL LOWS.

MON AND TUE...
GUIDANCE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT HIGH PRES FINALLY IS ABLE
TO NOSE ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE S. THIS ALLOWS GRADUAL WARMING
THROUGH THE COLUMN AND DRY CONDITIONS. THE WARMING MAY YIELD H85
TEMPS NEAR +14C BY TUE EVENING. THEREFORE...WILL LIKELY SEE ENOUGH
WARMING TO YIELD TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL...POSSIBLY THE UPPER
60S TO NEAR 70 BY TUE.

WED...
GUIDANCE DIFFERS HERE ON THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
YIELDING SOLUTIONS OF A PASSAGE DURING THE DAY ON WED...TO DURING
THE DAY ON THU. THEREFORE...MAY AT LEAST HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR A SHOWER WITH THIS FROPA.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THU/...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON OVERALL TRENDS BUT LOWER ON EXACT
DETAILS INCLUDING TIMING.

TODAY...
CONDITIONS REMAIN MAINLY IFR/MVFR THROUGH THE DAY IN A MIX OF LOW
CLOUDS...SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE/FOG. NE WINDS INCREASE TODAY WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KT MAINLY E MA/RI WITH SOME GUSTS HIGHER ACROSS NE
MA. LLWS LIKELY AS LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST JET DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHERN
NH AND NORTHEAST MA. CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDER OVER RI AND
SOUTHEAST MA AFTER 21Z.

TONIGHT...IFR/LIFR IN PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER.
LLWS ACROSS EASTERN AND CENTRAL MA AND SOUTHERN NH. GUSTY NE WINDS
ESPECIALLY IN THE HEAVIER RAIN BANDS.

THU...IFR/LIFR IN PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN DURING THE MORNING THEN
TRENDING TOWARD MVFR LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS HEAVY RAIN TAPERS
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS. LLWS POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING OVER SOUTHERN
NH AND CENTRAL-EASTERN MA.

KBOS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACT
DETAILS. LLWS LIKELY AFTER 18Z AS STRONG NE LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS
AND PERSIST INTO THU AM.

KBDL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACT
DETAILS. LOW PROB OF LLWS TONIGHT INTO THU AM AS STRONG LOW LEVEL
NE JET DEVELOPS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/FOG ARE
EXPECTED.

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT.  MAINLY VFR AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST.

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO BE PREDOMINANTLY VFR. A PERIOD
OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED SHOWERS.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE LATE DAY SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

***HIGH SEAS AND GALE FORCE NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS LIKELY TODAY AND
  TONIGHT ACROSS EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS ***

11 AM UPDATE...THE ONLY REAL CHANGE WAS TO UPGRADE BOSTON HARBOR
TO GALE WARNINGS BASED ON A STRONG NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL JET.

TODAY...NE GALES DEVELOP AROUND 15Z ACROSS THE CAPE ANN WATERS AND
CONTINUING THE REMINDER OF THE DAY. ELSEWHERE NE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
IN THE 20-25KT RANGE. HEAVY RAIN AND TSTMS ENTER THE SOUTHERN
WATERS THIS EVENING AND THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS OVERNIGHT.

TONIGHT...NE GALES LIKELY ACROSS CAPE ANN WATERS. SCA ELSEWHERE.
HEAVY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED TSTM ALL WATERS.

THU...HEAVY RAIN AND SCT TSTMS EXIT THE WATERS BY MIDDAY. NE WINDS
OVER THE CAPE ANN WATERS SHOULD EASE DURING THE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS ALL WATERS BUT
GRADUALLY DIMINISH FRI INTO FRI NIGHT. NW WINDS WITH GUSTS AROUND
25 KT POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY FRI...WITH SEAS RANGING 5-9FT
/HIGHEST AROUND CAPE ANN/ AND GRADUALLY DIMINISHING BY FRI NIGHT.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER. ALTHOUGH WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KT
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER SRN WATERS OUT OF THE NW.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS AND SEAS ONCE AGAIN INCREASE WITH SEAS REACHING 5-7 FT ON S
AND SE WATERS WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KT OUT OF THE NW. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY TO BE NEEDED AGAIN.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
FORTUNATELY ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES ARE RATHER LOW THIS WEEK.
THIS WILL LOWER THE RISK OF COASTAL FLOODING. HOWEVER NORTHEAST
GALES OVER THE CAPE ANN WATERS ALONG WITH THE DURATION OF ONSHORE
WINDS WILL YIELD A LOW RISK OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. ALTHOUGH
GIVEN THE LOWER WATER LEVELS EROSION IS MORE LIKELY GIVEN THE
PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS AND WAVES BATTERING THE COASTLINE. AGAIN
GREATEST RISK FOR EROSION IS ACROSS SALISBURY AND PLUM ISLAND.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...FLOOD WATCH FROM 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MAZ005>007-013>021-026.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR MAZ005>007-014>016.
NH...FLOOD WATCH FROM 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NHZ012-015.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ231>235-
     237-254>256.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ230.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ236.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...FRANK/NOCERA/DOODY
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KOKX 221452
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1052 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL SLOWLY DRIFT
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN LIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIME PROVINCES LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE REGION FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED VORT MAXES ROTATING THROUGH THE LOW WERE
MOVING SLOWLY TO THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WITH THE NORTHERN
PRECIPITATION SHIELD ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS WEAKENING
AND MOVING SOUTH WHILE SHOWERS WERE ROTATING NORTH INTO EASTERN
LONG. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
CURRENT TRENDS WITH THE LOW. CLOUDS PERSIST...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEARLY STEADY...AND DEW POINTS REMAIN CLOSE TO FORECAST.

THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW AS
TRACKS TOWARDS THE 40N 70W BENCHMARK THIS AFTN. THE NAM IS THE
FURTHEST N TODAY AND BECOMES THE FURTHEST W AND SLOWEST TO DEPART
ON THU.

HIGHS TODAY WERE A BLEND OF THE MOS GUIDANCE WHICH LOOKED
REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
LOW BECOMES NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED TONIGHT AND FRI AS IT
MEANDERS NEAR THE 40N 70W BENCHMARK. BEST CHC`S OF RAIN WILL BE
DURING THIS TIME. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A BAND PUSHES FROM
E TO W OVERNIGHT...THEN WEAKENS IN THE MORNING WITH ANOTHER VORT
MAX PRODUCING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS THU AFTN. THEREFORE HAVE LIKELY
TO CAT POPS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

STRONG NLY WINDS CONTINUE THIS EVE...THEN WEAKENS SLIGHTLY
OVERNIGHT AND THU AS THE PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS WITH THE LOW
NEARBY. IT WILL STILL REMAIN GUSTY HOWEVER...ALTHOUGH NOT AS
STRONG AS THIS AFTN AND EVE.

TEMPS TONIGHT AND THU WERE A BLEND OF THE MAV/ECS AS THE NAM
LOOKED TOO COLD WITH CLOUD COVER AND PCPN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED LOW APPROXIMATELY 130 MILES SE OF MONTAUK
POINT THURSDAY EVENING MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. SHOWERS TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
THIS TIME. ALTHOUGH MOST PRECIP SHOULD BE OVER BY LATE FRIDAY
MORNING...A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE NORTH AND EAST OF NYC
AS UPPER TROUGH/SHORTWAVE COMBO DEPART.

HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY BEFORE SAGGING
INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. ON SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. THAT FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. THINK
MOST PRECIP SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE AREA AND THE FRONT COMES
THROUGH DRY...BUT THE 00Z GFS/00Z ECMWF INDICATING SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AND
THEN MOVES OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY. DRY CONDS ON TAP FOR THE START OF
THE NEW WEEK...AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

HIGHS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL ON FRIDAY...TOPPING OFF IN THE
LOWER 60S...AND THEN WILL WARM UP SLIGHTLY ON SATURDAY INTO THE LOW
TO MID 60S. BEHIND COLD FRONT...TEMPS DROP BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S
AND LOW 60S ON SUNDAY...AND THEN TEMPS WILL BE MILDER FOR THE START
OF THE NEW WORK WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE PASSES JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND TODAY INTO
TONIGHT.

PERSISTENT CONVECTION REMAINS SOUTH OF THE REGION. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR FOR ANY NORTHWARD PROGRESSION.

EXPECT PREDOMINATELY MVFR CEILINGS TODAY...BETWEEN 1 AND 2 KFT
POSSIBLY IMPROVING TO 2 TO 3 KFT THIS AFTERNOON. DO NOT FORESEE
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS UNDER 3 MILES...UNLESS ANY AIRPORT
EXPERIENCES LOCAL HEAVY RAIN FOR A TIME.

DEPENDING ON WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION...EXPECT
HIT OR MISS SHOWERS TODAY MOVING FROM SE TO NW THROUGH THE DAY.

MORE ORGANIZED RAIN MAY APPROACH FROM THE EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND INTO TONIGHT.

WINDS ARE INCREASING THIS MORNING TO 10 TO 15 KTS. GUSTS BECOME
FREQUENT AFTER 14-16Z. GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT EXPECTED.

THESE WINDS SHOULD INCREASE SOMEWHAT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THIS EVENING. WIND DIRECTION REMAINS NORTH/NORTHEAST THIS
MORNING...THEN DUE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS BACK SLIGHTLY TO THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST TONIGHT.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS ARE LIKELY TODAY FOR WIND GUST
TIMING.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS TODAY.


KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS ARE LIKELY TODAY FOR STRONGER
WIND GUST TIMING.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CHANGING FLIGHT CATEGORIES.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CHANGING FLIGHT CATEGORIES.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR WINDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS
THROUGH THE DAY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN
PERIODS OF RA. N-NW WINDS G25-30KT POSSIBLE.
.FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...MOST LIKELY VFR...WITH LOW CHANCE SPOTTY
MVFR. NW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR. NW-W WINDS G25-30KT POSSIBLE.
.SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. NW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
WIND AND SEAS FORECAST ON TRACK. POPS ACROSS THE WATERS ADJUSTED
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR CURRENT TRACK OF THE LOW MOVINF EAST TO
SOUTHEAST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.

A GALE WARNING FOR THE OCEAN WATERS FROM 18Z THIS AFTN THROUGH
10Z TONIGHT REMAINS IN EFFECT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW OFFSHORE AND BELIEVE FREQ 35 KT GUSTS WILL
RESULT. THE GALE WARNING MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED INTO ERN LI SOUND
AND BAYS...JUST DID NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE IN FRQ 35 KT GUSTS
HERE. NO CHANGES TO THE SCA ON REMAINING WATERS IN EFFECT THROUGH
THE DAY THU.

GUSTY N-NW FLOW WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT CONTINUES THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SEAS AROUND 5 FT ON THE OCEAN. BY FRIDAY
NIGHT...CONDS SUBSIDE TO SUB-SCA CONDS AND SUB-SCA CONDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.

A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT...AND THEN NW
WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 KT ON SUNDAY WITH 4-6 FT SEAS ON THE OCEAN
WATERS.

HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS INTO THE WATERS FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORK
WEEK...AND TRANQUIL CONDS WILL RETURN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS CURRENTLY
OCCURRING DUE TO A BACKBUILDING STORM OFF THE SOUTH SHORE OF LONG
ISLAND. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT S AND E THIS MORNING
WITH SCT ACTIVITY LIKELY UNTIL LATE THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT.
ADDITIONAL BASIN AVG RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 3/4 ACROSS
WESTERN AREAS TO 1 1/2 INCHES IN EASTERN AREAS IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THU EVE.

MAINLY EXPECT NUISANCE URBAN OR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING WITH ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS AFTER THE ACTIVITY ENDS EARLY THIS MORNING.

LIGHT PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH ABOUT
1/10 INCH OF ADDITIONAL QPF.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345.
     GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...24/MPS
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...MET
HYDROLOGY...24/MPS










000
FXUS61 KALY 221322
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
922 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TO THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY...AND THEN MOVES NORTHEAST TO THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY. A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND
INTERMITTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED FROM TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR
FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST RAIN EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 922 AM...UPDATED GRIDDED FIELDS MAINLY TO LOWER POPS THIS
MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR RADAR TRENDS WHICH SHOW LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA. LATEST HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE THAT POPS WILL RISE TO LIKELY LEVELS
BY MIDDLE AFTERNOON. WITH A BRISK NORTHERLY WIND AND LOTS OF
CLOUD COVER...TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO RISE THAT MUCH FROM
CURRENT READINGS. CONTINUED WITH FORECAST HIGHS TODAY IN THE UPPER
40S TO MID 50S.

PERIODS OF RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING INTO THE 40S ALL AREAS EXCEPT SOME UPPER 30S HIGHER
ELEVATIONS UP NORTH. CONTINUED COLD...RAW NORTHERLY WIND AS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TAKES ITS TIME MOVING AWAY FROM THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE GULF OR MAINE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT OF
PCPN MOST OF THIS TIME PERIOD. POPS HAVE BEEN FORECAST TO RISE TO
CATEGORICAL LEVELS EARLY TONIGHT...AND REMAIN HIGH THROUGH MOST OF
THURSDAY.

THERE IS SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT AS TO HOW HEAVY AND HOW LONG PCPN
WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...SO HAVE
TAKEN A CONSENSUS APPROACH AND LOWER POPS THURSDAY NIGHT...DROPPING
TO CHANCE LEVELS BY SUNRISE FRIDAY. ON FRIDAY...POPS ARE FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TO DECREASE...REACHING ONLY 20 TO 30 PERCENT BY LATE IN THE
DAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY UNIFORM ACROSS THE REGION AND NOT VARY
MUCH BETWEEN HIGHS AND LOWS. LOWS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE
IN THE LOW OR MID 40S...WITH SOME UPPER 40S ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN
AREAS. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. FRIDAY IS
THE TRICKIER DAY IN TERMS OF TEMP FORECASTS. FOR NOW HAVE FORECAST
HIGHS IN THE 50S...BUT IF CLOUDS AND PCPN PERSIST AS SOME MODELS
SUGGEST...THEN HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE 5 TO 8 DEGREES COLDER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH THE COASTAL LOW THAT WILL HAVE IMPACTED
THE REGION MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK FINALLY PULLING AWAY INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES FRIDAY NIGHT. SHORT WAVE RIDGING INTO SATURDAY
MORNING WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING TO BE ABOVE NORMAL. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW RAPIDLY APPROACHES FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA. IT
WILL BE MILD FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.

THE UPPER LOW WILL TRACK INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH GENERALLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT. MOST OF THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH A NORTHWEST
FLOW REGIME FAVORING UPSLOPE ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND
SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE DUE TO DECENT JET DYNAMICS DESPITE LACK OF
MOISTURE. DEPENDING ON HOW MANY BREAKS OF SUNSHINE OCCUR ON
SUNDAY...TEMPS COULD END UP SLIGHTLY COOLER OR MUCH COOLER THAN
SATURDAY IN THE COLD ADVECTION REGIME ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER
LOW. WILL STILL MENTION SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY WRAP-AROUND/UPSLOPE SHOWERS. VALLEY
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF ALBANY SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AS A
SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. WITH THE HIGH
CRESTING TO OUR SOUTH MONDAY AFTERNOON...A WESTERLY FLOW COMBINED
WITH WARMING ALOFT SHOULD PROMOTE DECENT MIXING FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. TEMPS SHOULD RESPOND BY WARMING INTO THE LOWER 60S IN THE
VALLEYS. AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST...AN EVEN WARMER SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME WILL SET
UP FOR TUESDAY...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO POTENTIALLY REACH THE
MID TO UPPER 60S WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SPRAWLING COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF THE
DELMARVA WILL PROVIDE A MOIST NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

COVERAGE OF SHOWERS REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME...SO WILL ONLY MENTION
VCSH FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING HOURS. CIGS ARE GENERALLY IN
LOWER-END MVFR LEVELS BUT ARE VERY CLOSE TO IFR RANGE SO WILL
MENTION TEMPO FOR IFR CIGS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING. SHOWERS
WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A STEADY RAIN
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY EARLY EVENING AS THE COASTAL LOW TRACKS
CLOSER TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
WITH MOIST LOW LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW PERSISTING.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AROUND 10 KTS...INCREASING TO 10-15
KTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS AS THE COASTAL LOW
STRENGTHENS.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TO THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY...AND THEN MOVES NORTHEAST TO THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY. A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND
INTERMITTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED FROM TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR
FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...EVEN THOUGH WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED AND WET AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF SOUTH AND EAST THE REGION. OCCASIONAL RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED FROM TODAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST AND
HEAVIEST RAINFALL EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

WITH THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR...ESP TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO
TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA
DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS EVOLUTION...AND TRACK...WITH LOCALIZED
AMOUNTS UP TO THREE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...THIS RAINFALL WOULD OCCUR
OVER THE PERIOD OF A FEW DAYS...SO NO WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE HIGHEST
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WOULD BE FAVORED ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...ESP SOUTHERN VT...AND POSSIBLY THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/GJM
NEAR TERM...SND
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...SND/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM









000
FXUS61 KOKX 221305
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
905 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL SLOWLY DRIFT
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN LIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIME PROVINCES LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE REGION FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RAIN AND ISOLATED TSTMS WILL CONTINUE OVER NYC/PORTIONS OF NE
NJ/WESTERN LONG ISLAND THIS MORNING. HEAVIEST RAIN REMAINS OVER
THE OCEAN...AN ADDITIONAL 1/2 INCH OR SO IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING.

ANY TSTMS SHOULD DIMINISH AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES AS THE UPPER
LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND THE MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE PUSHES INLAND.

UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL SWING TO THE S
OF LI TODAY. PERIODS OF RAIN EXPECTED WITH THE BEST CHC ACROSS
WESTERN AREAS THIS MORNING...PIVOTING SWD AND THEN WRAPPING BACK
AROUND FROM THE SE LATE THIS AFTN. THE POP FORECAST WAS COMPRISED
ON A BLEND OF THE NAM...SREF AND SPC WRF DUE TO THE BETTER
RESOLUTION. THE WIND FORECAST HOWEVER...EXCLUDED THE NAM AS IT IS
THE WEAKEST WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW AND THEREFORE WINDS ARE
LIKELY TOO WEAK. GFS/CMC/EC/SREF WERE IN BETTER AGREEMENT OVERALL
WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW. NE WINDS WILL INCREASE AND GRADUALLY
BACK WITH THE LOW MOVING OFFSHORE. EXPECT 15 TO 20 MPH SUSTAINED
WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35 MPH NEAR IN THE METRO AREA.

THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW AS
TRACKS TOWARDS THE 40N 70W BENCHMARK THIS AFTN. THE NAM IS THE
FURTHEST N TODAY AND BECOMES THE FURTHEST W AND SLOWEST TO DEPART
ON THU.

HIGHS TODAY WERE A BLEND OF THE MOS GUIDANCE WHICH LOOKED
REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
LOW BECOMES NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED TONIGHT AND FRI AS IT
MEANDERS NEAR THE 40N 70W BENCHMARK. BEST CHC`S OF RAIN WILL BE
DURING THIS TIME. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A BAND PUSHES FROM
E TO W OVERNIGHT...THEN WEAKENS IN THE MORNING WITH ANOTHER VORT
MAX PRODUCING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS THU AFTN. THEREFORE HAVE LIKELY
TO CAT POPS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

STRONG NLY WINDS CONTINUE THIS EVE...THEN WEAKENS SLIGHTLY
OVERNIGHT AND THU AS THE PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS WITH THE LOW
NEARBY. IT WILL STILL REMAIN GUSTY HOWEVER...ALTHOUGH NOT AS
STRONG AS THIS AFTN AND EVE.

TEMPS TONIGHT AND THU WERE A BLEND OF THE MAV/ECS AS THE NAM
LOOKED TOO COLD WITH CLOUD COVER AND PCPN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED LOW APPROXIMATELY 130 MILES SE OF MONTAUK
POINT THURSDAY EVENING MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. SHOWERS TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
THIS TIME. ALTHOUGH MOST PRECIP SHOULD BE OVER BY LATE FRIDAY
MORNING...A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE NORTH AND EAST OF NYC
AS UPPER TROUGH/SHORTWAVE COMBO DEPART.

HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY BEFORE SAGGING
INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. ON SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. THAT FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. THINK
MOST PRECIP SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE AREA AND THE FRONT COMES
THROUGH DRY...BUT THE 00Z GFS/00Z ECMWF INDICATING SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AND
THEN MOVES OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY. DRY CONDS ON TAP FOR THE START OF
THE NEW WEEK...AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

HIGHS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL ON FRIDAY...TOPPING OFF IN THE
LOWER 60S...AND THEN WILL WARM UP SLIGHTLY ON SATURDAY INTO THE LOW
TO MID 60S. BEHIND COLD FRONT...TEMPS DROP BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S
AND LOW 60S ON SUNDAY...AND THEN TEMPS WILL BE MILDER FOR THE START
OF THE NEW WORK WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE PASSES JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND TODAY INTO
TONIGHT.

PERSISTENT CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM NYC METRO SOUTHWARD. DO EXPECT
THIS ACTIVITY TO SETTLE TO THE SOUTH AS THE MORNING
PROGRESSES...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.

EXPECT PREDOMINATELY MVFR CEILINGS TODAY...BETWEEN 1 AND 2 KFT
POSSIBLY IMPROVING TO 2 TO 3 KFT THIS AFTERNOON. DO NOT FORESEE
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS UNDER 3 MILES...UNLESS ANY AIRPORT
EXPERIENCES LOCAL HEAVY RAIN FOR A TIME.

DEPENDING ON WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION...EXPECT
HIT OR MISS SHOWERS TODAY MOVING FROM SE TO NW THROUGH THE DAY.

MORE ORGANIZED RAIN MAY APPROACH FROM THE EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND INTO TONIGHT.

WINDS ARE INCREASING THIS MORNING TO 10 TO 15 KTS. GUSTS BECOME
FREQUENT AFTER 14-16Z. GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT EXPECTED.

THESE WINDS SHOULD INCREASE SOMEWHAT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THIS EVENING. WIND DIRECTION REMAINS NORTH/NORTHEAST THIS
MORNING...THEN DUE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS BACK SLIGHTLY TO THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST TONIGHT.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN CLOSE TO THE AIRPORT
THROUGH 14Z. AMENDMENTS ARE LIKELY TODAY FOR THE INITIAL
THUNDERSTORMS...AND FOR WIND GUST TIMING.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS TODAY.
MORNING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO SETTLE TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AIRPORT LATER THIS MORNING.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN CLOSE TO THE AIRPORT
THROUGH 14Z. AMENDMENTS ARE LIKELY TODAY FOR THE INITIAL
THUNDERSTORMS...AND FOR STRONGER WIND GUST TIMING.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN JUST TO THE SOUTH
OF THE AIRPORT. WINDS INCREASE THIS MORNING. AMENDMENTS LIKELY.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN JUST TO THE SOUTH
OF THE AIRPORT. WINDS INCREASE THIS MORNING. AMENDMENTS LIKELY.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR WINDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS
THROUGH THE DAY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN
PERIODS OF RA. N-NW WINDS G25-30KT POSSIBLE.
.FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...MOST LIKELY VFR...WITH LOW CHANCE SPOTTY
MVFR. NW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR. NW-W WINDS G25-30KT POSSIBLE.
.SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. NW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE ISSUED A GALE WARNING FOR THE OCEAN WATERS FROM 18Z THIS AFTN
THROUGH 10Z TONIGHT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE STRENGTH
OF THE LOW OFFSHORE AND BELIEVE FREQ 35 KT GUSTS WILL RESULT. THE
GALE WARNING MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED INTO ERN LI SOUND AND
BAYS...JUST DID NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE IN FRQ 35 KT GUSTS HERE.
NO CHANGES TO THE SCA ON REMAINING WATERS IN EFFECT THROUGH THE
DAY THU.

GUSTY N-NW FLOW WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT CONTINUES THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SEAS AROUND 5 FT ON THE OCEAN. BY FRIDAY
NIGHT...CONDS SUBSIDE TO SUB-SCA CONDS AND SUB-SCA CONDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.

A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT...AND THEN NW
WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 KT ON SUNDAY WITH 4-6 FT SEAS ON THE OCEAN
WATERS.

HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS INTO THE WATERS FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORK
WEEK...AND TRANQUIL CONDS WILL RETURN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS CURRENTLY
OCCURRING DUE TO A BACKBUILDING STORM OFF THE SOUTH SHORE OF LONG
ISLAND. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT S AND E THIS MORNING
WITH SCT ACTIVITY LIKELY UNTIL LATE THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT.
ADDITIONAL BASIN AVG RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 3/4 ACROSS
WESTERN AREAS TO 1 1/2 INCHES IN EASTERN AREAS IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THU EVE.

MAINLY EXPECT NUISANCE URBAN OR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING WITH ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS AFTER THE ACTIVITY ENDS EARLY THIS MORNING.

LIGHT PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH ABOUT
1/10 INCH OF ADDITIONAL QPF.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345.
     GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...24/MPS
NEAR TERM...24/MPS/MET
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...24/MPS/DW
HYDROLOGY...24/MPS









000
FXUS61 KALY 221150
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
750 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TO THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY...AND THEN MOVES NORTHEAST TO THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY. A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND
INTERMITTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED FROM TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR
FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 615 AM...LATEST RADAR LOOPS INDICATE EVEN LESS PCPN ACROSS THE
REGION THAN PREVIOUSLY. IN FACT...LITTLE IF ANY PCPN EXISTS OVER
THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. HAVE LOWERED POPS EARLY THIS MORNING
IN ORDER TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT PCPN TRENDS. HAVE ALSO RAISED THE
HOURLY TEMP GRIDS BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES IN ORDER TO ACCOUNT FOR
CURRENT OBSERVATION.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOOKING AT SURROUNDING RADARS AND MOVEMENT OF ANY RAIN AREAS...IT
WOULD APPEAR THAT NOT MUCH RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING...SO HAVE FORECAST CHANCE POPS IN ALL AREAS. LATER
TODAY...AS THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT OF MOISTURE/PCPN BEGINS TO TAKE
SHAPE AROUND THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW...POPS ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO
LIKELY LEVELS BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH A BRISK NORTHERLY WIND
AND LOTS OF CLOUD COVER...TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO RISE THAT MUCH
FROM CURRENT READINGS. HAVE FORECAST HIGHS TODAY IN THE UPPER 40S TO
MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE GULF OR MAINE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT OF
PCPN MOST OF THIS TIME PERIOD. POPS HAVE BEEN FORECAST TO RISE TO
CATEGORICAL LEVELS EARLY TONIGHT...AND REMAIN HIGH THROUGH MOST OF
THURSDAY.

THERE IS SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT AS TO HOW HEAVY AND HOW LONG PCPN
WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...SO HAVE
TAKEN A CONSENSUS APPROACH AND LOWER POPS THURSDAY NIGHT...DROPPING
TO CHANCE LEVELS BY SUNRISE FRIDAY. ON FRIDAY...POPS ARE FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TO DECREASE...REACHING ONLY 20 TO 30 PERCENT BY LATE IN THE
DAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY UNIFORM ACROSS THE REGION AND NOT VARY
MUCH BETWEEN HIGHS AND LOWS. LOWS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE
IN THE LOW OR MID 40S...WITH SOME UPPER 40S ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN
AREAS. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. FRIDAY IS
THE TRICKIER DAY IN TERMS OF TEMP FORECASTS. FOR NOW HAVE FORECAST
HIGHS IN THE 50S...BUT IF CLOUDS AND PCPN PERSIST AS SOME MODELS
SUGGEST...THEN HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE 5 TO 8 DEGREES COLDER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH THE COASTAL LOW THAT WILL HAVE IMPACTED
THE REGION MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK FINALLY PULLING AWAY INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES FRIDAY NIGHT. SHORT WAVE RIDGING INTO SATURDAY
MORNING WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING TO BE ABOVE NORMAL. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW RAPIDLY APPROACHES FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA. IT
WILL BE MILD FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.

THE UPPER LOW WILL TRACK INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH GENERALLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT. MOST OF THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH A NORTHWEST
FLOW REGIME FAVORING UPSLOPE ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND
SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE DUE TO DECENT JET DYNAMICS DESPITE LACK OF
MOISTURE. DEPENDING ON HOW MANY BREAKS OF SUNSHINE OCCUR ON
SUNDAY...TEMPS COULD END UP SLIGHTLY COOLER OR MUCH COOLER THAN
SATURDAY IN THE COLD ADVECTION REGIME ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER
LOW. WILL STILL MENTION SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY WRAP-AROUND/UPSLOPE SHOWERS. VALLEY
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF ALBANY SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AS A
SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. WITH THE HIGH
CRESTING TO OUR SOUTH MONDAY AFTERNOON...A WESTERLY FLOW COMBINED
WITH WARMING ALOFT SHOULD PROMOTE DECENT MIXING FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. TEMPS SHOULD RESPOND BY WARMING INTO THE LOWER 60S IN THE
VALLEYS. AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST...AN EVEN WARMER SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME WILL SET
UP FOR TUESDAY...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO POTENTIALLY REACH THE
MID TO UPPER 60S WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SPRAWLING COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF THE
DELMARVA WILL PROVIDE A MOIST NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

COVERAGE OF SHOWERS REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME...SO WILL ONLY MENTION
VCSH FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING HOURS. CIGS ARE GENERALLY IN
LOWER-END MVFR LEVELS BUT ARE VERY CLOSE TO IFR RANGE SO WILL
MENTION TEMPO FOR IFR CIGS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING. SHOWERS
WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A STEADY RAIN
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY EARLY EVENING AS THE COASTAL LOW TRACKS
CLOSER TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
WITH MOIST LOW LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW PERSISTING.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AROUND 10 KTS...INCREASING TO 10-15
KTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS AS THE COASTAL LOW
STRENGTHENS.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TO THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY...AND THEN MOVES NORTHEAST TO THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY. A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND
INTERMITTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED FROM TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR
FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...EVEN THOUGH WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED AND WET AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF SOUTH AND EAST THE REGION. OCCASIONAL RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED FROM TODAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST AND
HEAVIEST RAINFALL EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

WITH THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR...ESP TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO
TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA
DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS EVOLUTION...AND TRACK...WITH LOCALIZED
AMOUNTS UP TO THREE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...THIS RAINFALL WOULD OCCUR
OVER THE PERIOD OF A FEW DAYS...SO NO WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE HIGHEST
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WOULD BE FAVORED ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...ESP SOUTHERN VT...AND POSSIBLY THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...SND/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM








000
FXUS61 KOKX 221132
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
732 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL SLOWLY DRIFT
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN LIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIME PROVINCES LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE REGION FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RAIN AND ISOLATED TSTMS WILL CONTINUE OVER NYC/PORTIONS OF NE
NJ/WESTERN LONG ISLAND THIS MORNING...BUT INTENSITY HAS
DIMINISHED OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO. HEAVIEST RAIN REMAINS OVER
THE OCEAN...WITH RADAR ESTIMATES OF 8-10 INCHES JUST OFFSHORE. IN
GENERAL...ABOUT 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN OVER LAND IN THOSE
AREAS...WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1/2 INCH OR SO THIS MORNING.

ANY TSTMS SHOULD DIMINISH AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES AS THE UPPER
LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND THE MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE PUSHES INLAND.

UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL SWING TO THE S
OF LI TODAY. PERIODS OF RAIN EXPECTED WITH THE BEST CHC ACROSS
WESTERN AREAS THIS MORNING...PIVOTING SWD AND THEN WRAPPING BACK
AROUND FROM THE SE LATE THIS AFTN. THE POP FORECAST WAS COMPRISED
ON A BLEND OF THE NAM...SREF AND SPC WRF DUE TO THE BETTER
RESOLUTION. THE WIND FORECAST HOWEVER...EXCLUDED THE NAM AS IT IS
THE WEAKEST WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW AND THEREFORE WINDS ARE
LIKELY TOO WEAK. GFS/CMC/EC/SREF WERE IN BETTER AGREEMENT OVERALL
WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW. NE WINDS WILL INCREASE AND GRADUALLY
BACK WITH THE LOW MOVING OFFSHORE. EXPECT 15 TO 20 MPH SUSTAINED
WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35 MPH NEAR IN THE METRO AREA.

THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW AS
TRACKS TOWARDS THE 40N 70W BENCHMARK THIS AFTN. THE NAM IS THE
FURTHEST N TODAY AND BECOMES THE FURTHEST W AND SLOWEST TO DEPART
ON THU.

HIGHS TODAY WERE A BLEND OF THE MOS GUIDANCE WHICH LOOKED
REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
LOW BECOMES NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED TONIGHT AND FRI AS IT
MEANDERS NEAR THE 40N 70W BENCHMARK. BEST CHC`S OF RAIN WILL BE
DURING THIS TIME. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A BAND PUSHES FROM
E TO W OVERNIGHT...THEN WEAKENS IN THE MORNING WITH ANOTHER VORT
MAX PRODUCING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS THU AFTN. THEREFORE HAVE LIKELY
TO CAT POPS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

STRONG NLY WINDS CONTINUE THIS EVE...THEN WEAKENS SLIGHTLY
OVERNIGHT AND THU AS THE PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS WITH THE LOW
NEARBY. IT WILL STILL REMAIN GUSTY HOWEVER...ALTHOUGH NOT AS
STRONG AS THIS AFTN AND EVE.

TEMPS TONIGHT AND THU WERE A BLEND OF THE MAV/ECS AS THE NAM
LOOKED TOO COLD WITH CLOUD COVER AND PCPN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED LOW APPROXIMATELY 130 MILES SE OF MONTAUK
POINT THURSDAY EVENING MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. SHOWERS TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
THIS TIME. ALTHOUGH MOST PRECIP SHOULD BE OVER BY LATE FRIDAY
MORNING...A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE NORTH AND EAST OF NYC
AS UPPER TROUGH/SHORTWAVE COMBO DEPART.

HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY BEFORE SAGGING
INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. ON SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. THAT FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. THINK
MOST PRECIP SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE AREA AND THE FRONT COMES
THROUGH DRY...BUT THE 00Z GFS/00Z ECMWF INDICATING SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AND
THEN MOVES OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY. DRY CONDS ON TAP FOR THE START OF
THE NEW WEEK...AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

HIGHS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL ON FRIDAY...TOPPING OFF IN THE
LOWER 60S...AND THEN WILL WARM UP SLIGHTLY ON SATURDAY INTO THE LOW
TO MID 60S. BEHIND COLD FRONT...TEMPS DROP BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S
AND LOW 60S ON SUNDAY...AND THEN TEMPS WILL BE MILDER FOR THE START
OF THE NEW WORK WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE PASSES JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND TODAY INTO
TONIGHT.

PERSISTENT CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM NYC METRO SOUTHWARD. DO EXPECT
THIS ACTIVITY TO SETTLE TO THE SOUTH AS THE MORNING
PROGRESSES...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.

EXPECT PREDOMINATELY MVFR CEILINGS TODAY...BETWEEN 1 AND 2 KFT
POSSIBLY IMPROVING TO 2 TO 3 KFT THIS AFTERNOON. DO NOT FORESEE
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS UNDER 3 MILES...UNLESS ANY AIRPORT
EXPERIENCES LOCAL HEAVY RAIN FOR A TIME.

DEPENDING ON WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION...EXPECT
HIT OR MISS SHOWERS TODAY MOVING FROM SE TO NW THROUGH THE DAY.

MORE ORGANIZED RAIN MAY APPROACH FROM THE EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND INTO TONIGHT.

WINDS ARE INCREASING THIS MORNING TO 10 TO 15 KTS. GUSTS BECOME
FREQUENT AFTER 14-16Z. GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT EXPECTED.

THESE WINDS SHOULD INCREASE SOMEWHAT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THIS EVENING. WIND DIRECTION REMAINS NORTH/NORTHEAST THIS
MORNING...THEN DUE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS BACK SLIGHTLY TO THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST TONIGHT.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN CLOSE TO THE AIRPORT
THROUGH 14Z. AMENDMENTS ARE LIKELY TODAY FOR THE INITIAL
THUNDERSTORMS...AND FOR WIND GUST TIMING.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS TODAY.
MORNING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO SETTLE TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AIRPORT LATER THIS MORNING.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN CLOSE TO THE AIRPORT
THROUGH 14Z. AMENDMENTS ARE LIKELY TODAY FOR THE INITIAL
THUNDERSTORMS...AND FOR STRONGER WIND GUST TIMING.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN JUST TO THE SOUTH
OF THE AIRPORT. WINDS INCREASE THIS MORNING. AMENDMENTS LIKELY.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN JUST TO THE SOUTH
OF THE AIRPORT. WINDS INCREASE THIS MORNING. AMENDMENTS LIKELY.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR WINDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS
THROUGH THE DAY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN
PERIODS OF RA. N-NW WINDS G25-30KT POSSIBLE.
.FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...MOST LIKELY VFR...WITH LOW CHANCE SPOTTY
MVFR. NW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR. NW-W WINDS G25-30KT POSSIBLE.
.SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. NW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE ISSUED A GALE WARNING FOR THE OCEAN WATERS FROM 18Z THIS AFTN
THROUGH 10Z TONIGHT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE STRENGTH
OF THE LOW OFFSHORE AND BELIEVE FREQ 35 KT GUSTS WILL RESULT. THE
GALE WARNING MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED INTO ERN LI SOUND AND
BAYS...JUST DID NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE IN FRQ 35 KT GUSTS HERE.
NO CHANGES TO THE SCA ON REMAINING WATERS IN EFFECT THROUGH THE
DAY THU.

GUSTY N-NW FLOW WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT CONTINUES THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SEAS AROUND 5 FT ON THE OCEAN. BY FRIDAY
NIGHT...CONDS SUBSIDE TO SUB-SCA CONDS AND SUB-SCA CONDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.

A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT...AND THEN NW
WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 KT ON SUNDAY WITH 4-6 FT SEAS ON THE OCEAN
WATERS.

HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS INTO THE WATERS FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORK
WEEK...AND TRANQUIL CONDS WILL RETURN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS CURRENTLY
OCCURRING DUE TO A BACKBUILDING STORM OFF THE SOUTH SHORE OF LONG
ISLAND. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT S AND E THIS MORNING
WITH SCT ACTIVITY LIKELY UNTIL LATE THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT.
ADDITIONAL BASIN AVG RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 3/4 ACROSS
WESTERN AREAS TO 1 1/2 INCHES IN EASTERN AREAS IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THU EVE.

MAINLY EXPECT NUISANCE URBAN OR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING WITH ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS AFTER THE ACTIVITY ENDS EARLY THIS MORNING.

LIGHT PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH ABOUT
1/10 INCH OF ADDITIONAL QPF.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345.
     GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...24/MPS
NEAR TERM...24/MPS
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...24/MPS/DW
HYDROLOGY...24/MPS











000
FXUS61 KBOX 221120
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
720 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW CLOUDS...FOG AND SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE THIS MORNING WILL BE
REPLACED BY A SOAKING WIND SWEPT RAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON...TONIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN INTENSIFYING COASTAL
STORM. SHOWERS WILL LINGER FRIDAY AS THE STORM SLOWLY PULLS AWAY
FROM NEW ENGLAND. MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
*** A WINDSWEPT SOAKING RAIN WITH POTENTIAL FLOODING BEGINS LATER
  TODAY AND CONTINUES TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING ***

7 AM UPDATE...
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS THIS MORNING. MAIN CHANGES WERE TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE POPS FROM E TO W THIS MORNING AS LATEST RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWS SHOWERS BLOSSOMING ALONG DEVELOPING NELY LLJ AND
TROWAL. WILL LIKELY SEE THESE SHOWERS CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON UNTIL STRONG
SHORTWAVE/DRY SLOT/INSTABILITY RESPONSIBLE FOR CONVECTION NEAR
NJ/NYC BEGINS TO ROTATE AROUND AND INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND LATE
TODAY. TRIED TO TIME POPS A BIT TOWARD THIS THINKING.
OTHERWISE...SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER AND LOW LVL MOISTURE ARE
LIKELY TO KEEP TEMPS ON THE COOL SIDE TODAY. LOWERED THEM TOWARD
LATEST LAV AND BC GUIDANCE THINKING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

RELATIVELY QUIET THIS MORNING WITH ONLY PATCHY FOG AND SPOTTY LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE IMPACTING THE REGION. HOWEVER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATING IMPRESSIVE TROUGH AMPLIFICATION WITH A NEW WARM CONVEYOR
BELT DEVELOPING OFF THE DELAWARE COAST AND THEN WRAPPING
CYCLONICALLY BACK INTO NJ AND EASTERN PA...FORMING A TROWAL. THIS
AREA OF STRONG ASCENT WILL OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FROM
SOUTH OF NORTH BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z.

MEANWHILE THIS TROUGH AMPLIFICATION WILL RESULT IN A STRONG RESPONSE
AT THE SURFACE WITH LOW PRES OFF THE DELAWARE COAST INTENSIFYING
TODAY. AS A RESULT ONSHORE PGRAD WILL DEVELOP WITH A STRONG LOW
LEVEL NORTHEAST JET EVOLVING OVER THE EASTERN MA WATERS INTO MUCH
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WINDSWEPT RAIN EVENT
LATER TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION ESPECIALLY EASTERN MA.

THE ONSET OF THE HEAVY RAIN /21Z-00Z/ WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE 2ND
HALF OF THE EVENING COMMUTE.

AS FOR TEMPS...NOT AS WARM AS YESTERDAY AS N-NE FLOW IS WELL
ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...

STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH FORMING THE TROWAL MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
YIELDING STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT. IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL JET OF 50
TO 60 KT FROM THE GULF OF MAINE INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND PROVIDES
STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. THIS LOW LEVEL WARM ANOMALY
WILL COMBINE WITH COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
TO YIELD A DEEP LAYER OF MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES. THIS WILL
LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS TO DEVELOP WITHIN
THE TROWAL AND INCREASE THE RISK FOR FLOODING.

GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT FOR A WIDESPREAD 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES OF RAINFALL
ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH RES MODELS SUCH AS THE W-ARW HAS UP TO 4" OF
RAINFALL ACROSS EASTERN MA NORTHWEST-WARD INTO SOUTHERN NH. THESE
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE STRONG JET DYNAMICS AND
INSTABILITY ALOFT. IN ADDITION WILL LIKELY SEE SOME RAINFALL
ENHANCEMENT ACROSS THE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE WORCESTER HILLS AND
MONADNOCKS. CONVERSELY MAY SEE SOME SHADOWING ON THE WEST SIDE OF
THIS HIGHER TERRAIN. GIVEN GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL OF 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES ALONG WITH RISK OF HIGHER AMOUNTS IN
CONVECTION AND FFG ONLY AROUND 3 INCHES WE ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH FOR
EASTERN MA AND SOUTHEAST NH.

IT WILL BE WINDY TONIGHT WITH NE WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
35 MPH...HIGHEST ACROSS NORTHEAST MA.

THURSDAY...

BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN WITHIN THE TROWAL WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
DURING THE MORNING. HOWEVER DRY SLOT SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE REGION IN
THE AFTERNOON WITH RAIN TRANSITIONING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
* LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON FRI
* MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER THIS WEEKEND

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
22.00Z MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE IS STARTING TO SHOW BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH NOT ONLY THE EXIT OF THE UPPER LVL CUTOFF THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK...BUT ALSO WITH THE SHORTWAVE THAT WILL ASSIST WITH THIS
SHIFT FOR THE WEEKEND. THE PREVIOUS DIFFERENCE IN TILT OF THIS
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE SEEMS TO HAVE BEEN RESOLVED SOMEWHAT. WITH
OPERATIONAL RUNS NOW DISPLAYING A BIT OF A NEGATIVE TILT.
THEREFORE...GIVEN THIS BETTER AGREEMENT A GENERAL BLEND OF
OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF SHOULD PROVIDE A GOOD BASELINE FOR THIS LONG
TERM UPDATE.

DEFINING THE LONG TERM...WILL INITIALLY BE THE EXITING CUTOFF AND
OCCLUSION. HOWEVER...AFTER BRIEF MESO-RIDGE YET ANOTHER ROBUST
WAVE AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND.
THEREFORE...EXPECT AN UNSETTLED START TO THE LONG TERM...FOLLOWED
BY GRADUAL DRYING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DETAILS...

THU NIGHT INTO FRI...
THE FIRST OF A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL FINALLY FORCE THE
STALLED UPPER LVL CUTOFF AND SFC LOW PRES TO BEGIN A SHIFT INTO
THE MARITIMES DURING THIS PERIOD. THU NIGHT...CONTINUED -SHRA
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AS THE REMNANT WARM CONVEYOR REMAINS JUST
OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
AS WINDS TAKE ON A MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT...SUCH THAT LESS
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ON FRI...WITH EVEN A FEW MORE
BREAKS OF SUN POSSIBLE. THEREFORE..EXPECT GRADUALLY DECREASING
POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. MINS STILL ON THE MILD SIDE AS DWPTS
REMAIN ELEVATED THU NIGHT...BUT HIGHS ON FRI MAY BE A BIT WARMER
THANKS TO DIMINISHING ONSHORE FLOW AND CLOUD COVER. MAINLY UPPER
50S AND LOW 60S.

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...
POTENTIAL FOR A MAINLY DRY PERIOD HERE IS WEAK RIDGING BUILDS
ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN THE FIRST SHORTWAVE...AND A SLIGHTLY
STRONGER WAVE DIVING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA. MAINLY NW FLOW...WITH
TEMPS CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS...IF NOT A BIT WARMER THANKS TO
H85 AVERAGING ABOUT +5C. MAY SEE SOME HIGHS IN THE MID 60S.

SAT NIGHT THRU SUN...
SECONDARY ROBUST BUT FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH LOW PRES
THROUGH QUEBEC...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION LATE SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW ENOUGH MOISTURE /EVEN UNDER
NW FLOW/ FOR SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS WITH THIS FROPA. NOT EXPECTING
WIDESPREAD OR PARTICULARLY HEAVY SHOWERS GIVEN THE DRY NW FLOW. IN
FACT...SRN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY REMAIN MOSTLY DRY
THANKS TO ENHANCED DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TOWARD THE S COAST.
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS MOVES IN WITH THIS COLD FROPA...SO WILL
LEAN TEMPS TOWARD A COOLER THAN NORMAL HIGHS AND NEAR NORMAL LOWS.

MON AND TUE...
GUIDANCE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT HIGH PRES FINALLY IS ABLE
TO NOSE ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE S. THIS ALLOWS GRADUAL WARMING
THROUGH THE COLUMN AND DRY CONDITIONS. THE WARMING MAY YIELD H85
TEMPS NEAR +14C BY TUE EVENING. THEREFORE...WILL LIKELY SEE ENOUGH
WARMING TO YIELD TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL...POSSIBLY THE UPPER
60S TO NEAR 70 BY TUE.

WED...
GUIDANCE DIFFERS HERE ON THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
YIELDING SOLUTIONS OF A PASSAGE DURING THE DAY ON WED...TO DURING
THE DAY ON THU. THEREFORE...MAY AT LEAST HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR A SHOWER WITH THIS FROPA.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THU/...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON OVERALL TRENDS BUT LOWER ON EXACT
DETAILS INCLUDING TIMING.

TODAY...
CONDITIONS REMAIN MAINLY IFR/MVFR THROUGH THE DAY IN A MIX OF LOW
CLOUDS...SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE/FOG. NE WINDS INCREASE TODAY WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KT MAINLY E MA/RI WITH SOME GUSTS HIGHER ACROSS NE
MA. LLWS LIKELY AS LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST JET DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHERN
NH AND NORTHEAST MA. CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDER OVER RI AND
SOUTHEAST MA AFTER 21Z.

TONIGHT...IFR/LIFR IN PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER.
LLWS ACROSS EASTERN AND CENTRAL MA AND SOUTHERN NH. GUSTY NE WINDS
ESPECIALLY IN THE HEAVIER RAIN BANDS.

THU...IFR/LIFR IN PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN DURING THE MORNING THEN
TRENDING TOWARD MVFR LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS HEAVY RAIN TAPERS
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS. LLWS POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING OVER SOUTHERN
NH AND CENTRAL-EASTERN MA.

KBOS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACT
DETAILS. LLWS LIKELY AFTER 18Z AS STRONG NE LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS
AND PERSIST INTO THU AM.

KBDL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACT
DETAILS. LOW PROB OF LLWS TONIGHT INTO THU AM AS STRONG LOW LEVEL
NE JET DEVELOPS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/FOG ARE
EXPECTED.

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT.  MAINLY VFR AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST.

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO BE PREDOMINANTLY VFR. A PERIOD
OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED SHOWERS.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE LATE DAY SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

***HIGH SEAS AND GALE FORCE NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS LIKELY TODAY AND
  TONIGHT ACROSS EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS ***

TODAY...NE GALES DEVELOP AROUND 15Z ACROSS THE CAPE ANN WATERS AND
CONTINUING THE REMINDER OF THE DAY. ELSEWHERE NE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
IN THE 20-25KT RANGE. HEAVY RAIN AND TSTMS ENTER THE SOUTHERN
WATERS THIS EVENING AND THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS OVERNIGHT.

TONIGHT...NE GALES LIKELY ACROSS CAPE ANN WATERS. SCA ELSEWHERE.
HEAVY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED TSTM ALL WATERS.

THU...HEAVY RAIN AND SCT TSTMS EXIT THE WATERS BY MIDDAY. NE WINDS
OVER THE CAPE ANN WATERS SHOULD EASE DURING THE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS ALL WATERS BUT
GRADUALLY DIMINISH FRI INTO FRI NIGHT. NW WINDS WITH GUSTS AROUND
25 KT POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY FRI...WITH SEAS RANGING 5-9FT
/HIGHEST AROUND CAPE ANN/ AND GRADUALLY DIMINISHING BY FRI NIGHT.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER. ALTHOUGH WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KT
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER SRN WATERS OUT OF THE NW.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS AND SEAS ONCE AGAIN INCREASE WITH SEAS REACHING 5-7 FT ON S
AND SE WATERS WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KT OUT OF THE NW. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY TO BE NEEDED AGAIN.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
FORTUNATELY ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES ARE RATHER LOW THIS WEEK.
THIS WILL LOWER THE RISK OF COASTAL FLOODING. HOWEVER NORTHEAST
GALES OVER THE CAPE ANN WATERS ALONG WITH THE DURATION OF ONSHORE
WINDS WILL YIELD A LOW RISK OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. ALTHOUGH
GIVEN THE LOWER WATER LEVELS EROSION IS MORE LIKELY GIVEN THE
PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS AND WAVES BATTERING THE COASTLINE. AGAIN
GREATEST RISK FOR EROSION IS ACROSS SALISBURY AND PLUM ISLAND.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...FLOOD WATCH FROM 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MAZ005>007-013>019-026.
NH...FLOOD WATCH FROM 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NHZ012-015.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ231>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ230-236.
     GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/DOODY
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KALY 221033
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
635 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TO THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY...AND THEN MOVES NORTHEAST TO THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY. A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND
INTERMITTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED FROM TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR
FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM TODAY/...
AS OF 615 AM...LATEST RADAR LOOPS INDICATE EVEN LESS PCPN ACROSS THE
REGION THAN PREVIOUSLY. IN FACT...LITTLEE IF ANY PCPN EXISTS OVER
THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. HAVE LOWERED POPS EARLY THIS MORNING
IN ORDER TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT PCPN TRENDS. HAVE ALSO RAISED THE
HOURLY TEMP GRIDS BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES IN ORDER TO ACCOUNT FOR
CURRENT OBSERVATION.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOOKING AT SURROUNDING RADARS AND MOVEMENT OF ANY RAIN AREAS...IT
WOULD APPEAR THAT NOT MUCH RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING...SO HAVE FORECAST CHANCE POPS IN ALL AREAS. LATER
TODAY...AS THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT OF MOISTURE/PCPN BEGINS TO TAKE
SHAPE AROUND THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW...POPS ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO
LIKELY LEVELS BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH A BRISK NORTHERLY WIND
AND LOTS OF CLOUD COVER...TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO RISE THAT MUCH
FROM CURRENT READINGS. HAVE FORECAST HIGHS TODAY IN THE UPPER 40S TO
MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE GULF OR MAINE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT OF
PCPN MOST OF THIS TIME PERIOD. POPS HAVE BEEN FORECAST TO RISE TO
CATEGORICAL LEVELS EARLY TONIGHT...AND REMAIN HIGH THROUGH MOST OF
THURSDAY.

THERE IS SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT AS TO HOW HEAVY AND HOW LONG PCPN
WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...SO HAVE
TAKEN A CONSENSUS APPROACH AND LOWER POPS THURSDAY NIGHT...DROPPING
TO CHANCE LEVELS BY SUNRISE FRIDAY. ON FRIDAY...POPS ARE FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TO DECREASE...REACHING ONLY 20 TO 30 PERCENT BY LATE IN THE
DAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY UNIFORM ACROSS THE REGION AND NOT VARY
MUCH BETWEEN HIGHS AND LOWS. LOWS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE
IN THE LOW OR MID 40S...WITH SOME UPPER 40S ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN
AREAS. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. FRIDAY IS
THE TRICKIER DAY IN TERMS OF TEMP FORECASTS. FOR NOW HAVE FORECAST
HIGHS IN THE 50S...BUT IF CLOUDS AND PCPN PERSIST AS SOME MODELS
SUGGEST...THEN HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE 5 TO 8 DEGREES COLDER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH THE COASTAL LOW THAT WILL HAVE IMPACTED
THE REGION MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK FINALLY PULLING AWAY INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES FRIDAY NIGHT. SHORT WAVE RIDGING INTO SATURDAY
MORNING WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING TO BE ABOVE NORMAL. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW RAPIDLY APPROACHES FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA. IT
WILL BE MILD FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.

THE UPPER LOW WILL TRACK INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH GENERALLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT. MOST OF THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH A NORTHWEST
FLOW REGIME FAVORING UPSLOPE ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND
SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE DUE TO DECENT JET DYNAMICS DESPITE LACK OF
MOISTURE. DEPENDING ON HOW MANY BREAKS OF SUNSHINE OCCUR ON
SUNDAY...TEMPS COULD END UP SLIGHTLY COOLER OR MUCH COOLER THAN
SATURDAY IN THE COLD ADVECTION REGIME ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER
LOW. WILL STILL MENTION SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY WRAP-AROUND/UPSLOPE SHOWERS. VALLEY
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF ALBANY SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AS A
SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. WITH THE HIGH
CRESTING TO OUR SOUTH MONDAY AFTERNOON...A WESTERLY FLOW COMBINED
WITH WARMING ALOFT SHOULD PROMOTE DECENT MIXING FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. TEMPS SHOULD RESPOND BY WARMING INTO THE LOWER 60S IN THE
VALLEYS. AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST...AN EVEN WARMER SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME WILL SET
UP FOR TUESDAY...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO POTENTIALLY REACH THE
MID TO UPPER 60S WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/..
A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF THE DELMARVA WILL
PROVIDE A MOIST NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS.

COVERAGE OF SHOWERS HAS DECREASED SO WILL ONLY MENTION VCSH FOR THE
REST OF THE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...CIGS HAVE LOWERED INTO IFR RANGE AT
MOST OF THE TERMINALS AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN IFR RANGE WITH
OCCASIONAL LOWER-END MVFR LEVELS THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING.
SHOWERS WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN COVERAGE BY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A
STEADY RAIN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING AS THE COASTAL LOW
TRACKS CLOSER TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MVFR/IFR WILL CONTINUE WITH
MOIST LOW LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW PERSISTING.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AROUND 5-10 KTS...INCREASING TO
10-15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS AS THE COASTAL LOW
STRENGTHENS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PDS RA.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. OCNL SHRA...RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY TO SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TO THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY...AND THEN MOVES NORTHEAST TO THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY. A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND
INTERMITTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED FROM TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR
FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...EVEN THOUGH WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED AND WET AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF SOUTH AND EAST THE REGION. OCCASIONAL RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED FROM TODAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST AND
HEAVIEST RAINFALL EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

WITH THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR...ESP TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO
TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA
DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS EVOLUTION...AND TRACK...WITH LOCALIZED
AMOUNTS UP TO THREE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...THIS RAINFALL WOULD OCCUR
OVER THE PERIOD OF A FEW DAYS...SO NO WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE HIGHEST
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WOULD BE FAVORED ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...ESP SOUTHERN VT...AND POSSIBLY THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/KL
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM













000
FXUS61 KOKX 220839
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
439 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL SLOWLY DRIFT
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN LIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIME PROVINCES LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE REGION FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL SWING TO THE S
OF LI TODAY. PERIODS OF RAIN EXPECTED WITH THE BEST CHC ACROSS
WESTERN AREAS THIS MORNING...PIVOTING SWD AND THEN WRAPPING BACK
AROUND FROM THE SE LATE THIS AFTN. THE POP FORECAST WAS COMPRISED
ON A BLEND OF THE NAM...SREF AND SPC WRF DUE TO THE BETTER
RESOLUTION. THE WIND FORECAST HOWEVER...EXCLUDED THE NAM AS IT IS
THE WEAKEST WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW AND THEREFORE WINDS ARE
LIKELY TOO WEAK. GFS/CMC/EC/SREF WERE IN BETTER AGREEMENT OVERALL
WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW. NE WINDS WILL INCREASE AND GRADUALLY BACK
WITH THE LOW MOVING OFFSHORE. EXPECT 15 TO 20 MPH SUSTAINED WITH
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35 MPH NEAR IN THE METRO AREA.

THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW AS
TRACKS TOWARDS THE 40N 70W BENCHMARK THIS AFTN. THE NAM IS THE
FURTHEST N TODAY AND BECOMES THE FURTHEST W AND SLOWEST TO DEPART
ON THU.

TSTMS ACROSS WESTERN AREAS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD DIMINISH AS
THE UPPER LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND THE MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE PUSHES INLAND.

STORM JUST S OF NASSAU/QUEENS HAS BEEN BACKBUILDING OVER THE SAME
AREA FOR SEVERAL HOURS WITH LITTLE FORWARD MOVEMENT. DUAL POL
ESTIMATES STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 6 AND 9 INCHES OF RAINFALL WITH
HOURLY RATES BETWEEN  2-4 INCHES. THANK GOODNESS THIS IS OVER THE
WATER!! HOWEVER...RAINFALL RATES OF 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR
IN THE VICINITY OF LONG BEACH HAS PROMPTED A FLASH FLOOD WARNING
FOR SOUTHERN QUEENS/NASSAU.

HIGHS TODAY WERE A BLEND OF THE MOS GUIDANCE WHICH LOOKED
REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
LOW BECOMES NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED TONIGHT AND FRI AS IT
MEANDERS NEAR THE 40N 70W BENCHMARK. BEST CHC`S OF RAIN WILL BE
DURING THIS TIME. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A BAND PUSHES FROM
E TO W OVERNIGHT...THEN WEAKENS IN THE MORNING WITH ANOTHER VORT
MAX PRODUCING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS THU AFTN. THEREFORE HAVE LIKELY
TO CAT POPS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

STRONG NLY WINDS CONTINUE THIS EVE...THEN WEAKENS SLIGHTLY
OVERNIGHT AND THU AS THE PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS WITH THE LOW
NEARBY. IT WILL STILL REMAIN GUSTY HOWEVER...ALTHOUGH NOT AS
STRONG AS THIS AFTN AND EVE.

TEMPS TONIGHT AND THU WERE A BLEND OF THE MAV/ECS AS THE NAM
LOOKED TOO COLD WITH CLOUD COVER AND PCPN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED LOW APPROXIMATELY 130 MILES SE OF MONTAUK
POINT THURSDAY EVENING MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. SHOWERS TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
THIS TIME. ALTHOUGH MOST PRECIP SHOULD BE OVER BY LATE FRIDAY
MORNING...A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE NORTH AND EAST OF NYC
AS UPPER TROUGH/SHORTWAVE COMBO DEPART.

HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY BEFORE SAGGING
INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. ON SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. THAT FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. THINK
MOST PRECIP SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE AREA AND THE FRONT COMES
THROUGH DRY...BUT THE 00Z GFS/00Z ECMWF INDICATING SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AND
THEN MOVES OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY. DRY CONDS ON TAP FOR THE START OF
THE NEW WEEK...AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

HIGHS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL ON FRIDAY...TOPPING OFF IN THE
LOWER 60S...AND THEN WILL WARM UP SLIGHTLY ON SATURDAY INTO THE LOW
TO MID 60S. BEHIND COLD FRONT...TEMPS DROP BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S
AND LOW 60S ON SUNDAY...AND THEN TEMPS WILL BE MILDER FOR THE START
OF THE NEW WORK WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE REMAINS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND TODAY.

OVERALL TODAY...EXPECT PREDOMINATELY MVFR CEILINGS...BETWEEN 1 AND 2
KFT. DO NOT FORESEE VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS UNDER 4 MILES...UNLESS
ANY AIRPORT EXPERIENCES LOCAL HEAVY RAIN FOR A TIME.

ON AND OFF RAIN IS ANTICIPATED. INITIAL AREA OF CONVECTION MOVING
ACROSS NYC METRO THIS MORNING. AFTER 12Z THOUGH...TIMING WILL BE
DIFFICULT. NEXT BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THROUGH THE EVENING.

WINDS ARE INCREASING THIS MORNING TO 10 TO 15 KTS. GUSTS BECOME
FREQUENT AFTER 14-16Z. GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT EXPECTED.

THESE WINDS SHOULD INCREASE SOMEWHAT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THIS EVENING. WIND DIRECTION REMAINS NORTH/NORTHEAST THIS
MORNING...THEN DUE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS BACK SLIGHTLY TO THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST THIS EVENING.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR TIMING OF WIND GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE. ALSO...IFR CONDITIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN ANY HEAVIER
RAIN THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS TODAY.
ALSO...IFR CONDITIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN ANY HEAVIER RAIN
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR TIMING OF WIND GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE. ALSO...IFR CONDITIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN ANY HEAVIER
RAIN THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR CONDITIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN ANY
HEAVIER RAIN THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR CONDITIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN ANY
HEAVIER RAIN THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR CONDITIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN ANY
HEAVIER RAIN THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN
PERIODS OF RA. N-NW WINDS G25-30KT POSSIBLE.
.FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...MOST LIKELY VFR...WITH LOW CHANCE SPOTTY
MVFR. NW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR. NW-W WINDS G25-30KT POSSIBLE.
.SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. NW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE ISSUED A GALE WARNING FOR THE OCEAN WATERS FROM 18Z THIS AFTN
THROUGH 10Z TONIGHT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE STRENGTH
OF THE LOW OFFSHORE AND BELIEVE FREQ 35 KT GUSTS WILL RESULT. THE
GALE WARNING MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED INTO ERN LI SOUND AND
BAYS...JUST DID NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE IN FRQ 35 KT GUSTS HERE.
NO CHANGES TO THE SCA ON REMAINING WATERS IN EFFECT THROUGH THE
DAY THU.

GUSTY N-NW FLOW WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT CONTINUES THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SEAS AROUND 5 FT ON THE OCEAN. BY FRIDAY
NIGHT...CONDS SUBSIDE TO SUB-SCA CONDS AND SUB-SCA CONDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.

A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT...AND THEN NW
WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 KT ON SUNDAY WITH 4-6 FT SEAS ON THE OCEAN
WATERS.

HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS INTO THE WATERS FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORK
WEEK...AND TRANQUIL CONDS WILL RETURN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS CURRENTLY
OCCURRING DUE TO A BACKBUILDING STORM OFF THE SOUTH SHORE OF LONG
ISLAND. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT S AND E THIS MORNING
WITH SCT ACTIVITY LIKELY UNTIL LATE THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT.
ADDITIONAL BASIN AVG RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 3/4 ACROSS
WESTERN AREAS TO 1 1/2 INCHES IN EASTERN AREAS IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THU EVE.

MAINLY EXPECT NUISANCE URBAN OR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING WITH ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS AFTER THE ACTIVITY ENDS EARLY THIS MORNING.

LIGHT PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH ABOUT
1/10 INCH OF ADDITIONAL QPF.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345.
     GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KALY 220831
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
430 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TO THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY...AND THEN MOVES NORTHEAST TO THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY. A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND
INTERMITTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED FROM TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR
FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM TODAY/...
LOOKING AT SURROUNDING RADARS AND MOVEMENT OF ANY RAIN AREAS...IT
WOULD APPEAR THAT NOT MUCH RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING...SO HAVE FORECAST CHANCE POPS IN ALL AREAS. LATER
TODAY...AS THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT OF MOISTURE/PCPN BEGINS TO TAKE
SHAPE AROUND THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW...POPS ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO
LIKELY LEVELS BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH A BRISK NORTHERLY WIND
AND LOTS OF CLOUD COVER...TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO RISE THAT MUCH
FROM CURRENT READINGS. HAVE FORECAST HIGHS TODAY IN THE UPPER 40S TO
MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE GULF OR MAINE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT OF
PCPN MOST OF THIS TIME PERIOD. POPS HAVE BEEN FORECAST TO RISE TO
CATEGORICAL LEVELS EARLY TONIGHT...AND REMAIN HIGH THROUGH MOST OF
THURSDAY.

THERE IS SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT AS TO HOW HEAVY AND HOW LONG PCPN
WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...SO HAVE
TAKEN A CONSENSUS APPROACH AND LOWER POPS THURSDAY NIGHT...DROPPING
TO CHANCE LEVELS BY SUNRISE FRIDAY. ON FRIDAY...POPS ARE FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TO DECREASE...REACHING ONLY 20 TO 30 PERCENT BY LATE IN THE
DAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY UNIFORM ACROSS THE REGION AND NOT VARY
MUCH BETWEEN HIGHS AND LOWS. LOWS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE
IN THE LOW OR MID 40S...WITH SOME UPPER 40S ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN
AREAS. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. FRIDAY IS
THE TRICKIER DAY IN TERMS OF TEMP FORECASTS. FOR NOW HAVE FORECAST
HIGHS IN THE 50S...BUT IF CLOUDS AND PCPN PERSIST AS SOME MODELS
SUGGEST...THEN HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE 5 TO 8 DEGREES COLDER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH THE COASTAL LOW THAT WILL HAVE IMPACTED
THE REGION MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK FINALLY PULLING AWAY INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES FRIDAY NIGHT. SHORT WAVE RIDGING INTO SATURDAY
MORNING WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING TO BE ABOVE NORMAL. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW RAPIDLY APPROACHES FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA. IT
WILL BE MILD FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.

THE UPPER LOW WILL TRACK INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH GENERALLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT. MOST OF THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH A NORTHWEST
FLOW REGIME FAVORING UPSLOPE ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND
SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE DUE TO DECENT JET DYNAMICS DESPITE LACK OF
MOISTURE. DEPENDING ON HOW MANY BREAKS OF SUNSHINE OCCUR ON
SUNDAY...TEMPS COULD END UP SLIGHTLY COOLER OR MUCH COOLER THAN
SATURDAY IN THE COLD ADVECTION REGIME ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER
LOW. WILL STILL MENTION SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY WRAP-AROUND/UPSLOPE SHOWERS. VALLEY
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF ALBANY SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AS A
SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. WITH THE HIGH
CRESTING TO OUR SOUTH MONDAY AFTERNOON...A WESTERLY FLOW COMBINED
WITH WARMING ALOFT SHOULD PROMOTE DECENT MIXING FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. TEMPS SHOULD RESPOND BY WARMING INTO THE LOWER 60S IN THE
VALLEYS. AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST...AN EVEN WARMER SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME WILL SET
UP FOR TUESDAY...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO POTENTIALLY REACH THE
MID TO UPPER 60S WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/..
A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF THE DELMARVA WILL
PROVIDE A MOIST NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS.

COVERAGE OF SHOWERS HAS DECREASED SO WILL ONLY MENTION VCSH FOR THE
REST OF THE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...CIGS HAVE LOWERED INTO IFR RANGE AT
MOST OF THE TERMINALS AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN IFR RANGE WITH
OCCASIONAL LOWER-END MVFR LEVELS THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING.
SHOWERS WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN COVERAGE BY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A
STEADY RAIN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING AS THE COASTAL LOW
TRACKS CLOSER TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MVFR/IFR WILL CONTINUE WITH
MOIST LOW LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW PERSISTING.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AROUND 5-10 KTS...INCREASING TO
10-15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS AS THE COASTAL LOW
STRENGTHENS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PDS RA.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. OCNL SHRA...RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY TO SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TO THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY...AND THEN MOVES NORTHEAST TO THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY. A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND
INTERMITTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED FROM TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR
FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...EVEN THOUGH WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED AND WET AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF SOUTH AND EAST THE REGION. OCCASIONAL RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED FROM TODAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST AND
HEAVIEST RAINFALL EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

WITH THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR...ESP TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO
TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA
DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS EVOLUTION...AND TRACK...WITH LOCALIZED
AMOUNTS UP TO THREE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...THIS RAINFALL WOULD OCCUR
OVER THE PERIOD OF A FEW DAYS...SO NO WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE HIGHEST
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WOULD BE FAVORED ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...ESP SOUTHERN VT...AND POSSIBLY THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/KL
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM










000
FXUS61 KBOX 220828
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
428 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW CLOUDS...FOG AND SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE THIS MORNING WILL BE
REPLACED BY A SOAKING WIND SWEPT RAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON...TONIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN INTENSIFYING COASTAL
STORM. SHOWERS WILL LINGER FRIDAY AS THE STORM SLOWLY PULLS AWAY
FROM NEW ENGLAND. MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
*** A WINDSWEPT SOAKING RAIN WITH POTENTIAL FLOODING BEGINS LATER
  TODAY AND CONTINUES TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING ***

RELATIVELY QUIET THIS MORNING WITH ONLY PATCHY FOG AND SPOTTY LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE IMPACTING THE REGION. HOWEVER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATING IMPRESSIVE TROUGH AMPLIFICATION WITH A NEW WARM CONVEYOR
BELT DEVELOPING OFF THE DELAWARE COAST AND THEN WRAPPING
CYCLONICALLY BACK INTO NJ AND EASTERN PA...FORMING A TROWAL. THIS
AREA OF STRONG ASCENT WILL OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FROM
SOUTH OF NORTH BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z.

MEANWHILE THIS TROUGH AMPLIFICATION WILL RESULT IN A STRONG RESPONSE
AT THE SURFACE WITH LOW PRES OFF THE DELAWARE COAST INTENSIFYING
TODAY. AS A RESULT ONSHORE PGRAD WILL DEVELOP WITH A STRONG LOW
LEVEL NORTHEAST JET EVOLVING OVER THE EASTERN MA WATERS INTO MUCH
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WINDSWEPT RAIN EVENT
LATER TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION ESPECIALLY EASTERN MA.

THE ONSET OF THE HEAVY RAIN /21Z-00Z/ WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE 2ND
HALF OF THE EVENING COMMUTE.

AS FOR TEMPS...NOT AS WARM AS YESTERDAY AS N-NE FLOW IS WELL
ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...

STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH FORMING THE TROWAL MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
YIELDING STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT. IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL JET OF 50
TO 60 KT FROM THE GULF OF MAINE INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND PROVIDES
STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. THIS LOW LEVEL WARM ANOMALY
WILL COMBINE WITH COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
TO YIELD A DEEP LAYER OF MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES. THIS WILL
LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS TO DEVELOP WITHIN
THE TROWAL AND INCREASE THE RISK FOR FLOODING.

GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT FOR A WIDESPREAD 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES OF RAINFALL
ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH RES MODELS SUCH AS THE W-ARW HAS UP TO 4" OF
RAINFALL ACROSS EASTERN MA NORTHWEST-WARD INTO SOUTHERN NH. THESE
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE STRONG JET DYNAMICS AND
INSTABILITY ALOFT. IN ADDITION WILL LIKELY SEE SOME RAINFALL
ENHANCEMENT ACROSS THE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE WORCESTER HILLS AND
MONADNOCKS. CONVERSELY MAY SEE SOME SHADOWING ON THE WEST SIDE OF
THIS HIGHER TERRAIN. GIVEN GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL OF 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES ALONG WITH RISK OF HIGHER AMOUNTS IN
CONVECTION AND FFG ONLY AROUND 3 INCHES WE ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH FOR
EASTERN MA AND SOUTHEAST NH.

IT WILL BE WINDY TONIGHT WITH NE WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
35 MPH...HIGHEST ACROSS NORTHEAST MA.

THURSDAY...

BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN WITHIN THE TROWAL WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
DURING THE MORNING. HOWEVER DRY SLOT SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE REGION IN
THE AFTERNOON WITH RAIN TRANSITIONING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

* LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON FRI
* MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER THIS WEEKEND

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
22.00Z MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE IS STARTING TO SHOW BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH NOT ONLY THE EXIT OF THE UPPER LVL CUTOFF THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK...BUT ALSO WITH THE SHORTWAVE THAT WILL ASSIST WITH THIS
SHIFT FOR THE WEEKEND. THE PREVIOUS DIFFERENCE IN TILT OF THIS
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE SEEMS TO HAVE BEEN RESOLVED SOMEWHAT. WITH
OPERATIONAL RUNS NOW DISPLAYING A BIT OF A NEGATIVE TILT.
THEREFORE...GIVEN THIS BETTER AGREEMENT A GENERAL BLEND OF
OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF SHOULD PROVIDE A GOOD BASELINE FOR THIS LONG
TERM UPDATE.

DEFINING THE LONG TERM...WILL INITIALLY BE THE EXITING CUTOFF AND
OCCLUSION. HOWEVER...AFTER BRIEF MESO-RIDGE YET ANOTHER ROBUST
WAVE AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND.
THEREFORE...EXPECT AN UNSETTLED START TO THE LONG TERM...FOLLOWED
BY GRADUAL DRYING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DETAILS...

THU NIGHT INTO FRI...
THE FIRST OF A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL FINALLY FORCE THE
STALLED UPPER LVL CUTOFF AND SFC LOW PRES TO BEGIN A SHIFT INTO
THE MARITIMES DURING THIS PERIOD. THU NIGHT...CONTINUED -SHRA
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AS THE REMNANT WARM CONVEYOR REMAINS JUST
OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
AS WINDS TAKE ON A MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT...SUCH THAT LESS
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ON FRI...WITH EVEN A FEW MORE
BREAKS OF SUN POSSIBLE. THEREFORE..EXPECT GRADUALLY DECREASING
POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. MINS STILL ON THE MILD SIDE AS DWPTS
REMAIN ELEVATED THU NIGHT...BUT HIGHS ON FRI MAY BE A BIT WARMER
THANKS TO DIMINISHING ONSHORE FLOW AND CLOUD COVER. MAINLY UPPER
50S AND LOW 60S.

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...
POTENTIAL FOR A MAINLY DRY PERIOD HERE IS WEAK RIDGING BUILDS
ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN THE FIRST SHORTWAVE...AND A SLIGHTLY
STRONGER WAVE DIVING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA. MAINLY NW FLOW...WITH
TEMPS CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS...IF NOT A BIT WARMER THANKS TO
H85 AVERAGING ABOUT +5C. MAY SEE SOME HIGHS IN THE MID 60S.

SAT NIGHT THRU SUN...
SECONDARY ROBUST BUT FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH LOW PRES
THROUGH QUEBEC...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION LATE SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW ENOUGH MOISTURE /EVEN UNDER
NW FLOW/ FOR SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS WITH THIS FROPA. NOT EXPECTING
WIDESPREAD OR PARTICULARLY HEAVY SHOWERS GIVEN THE DRY NW FLOW. IN
FACT...SRN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY REMAIN MOSTLY DRY
THANKS TO ENHANCED DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TOWARD THE S COAST.
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS MOVES IN WITH THIS COLD FROPA...SO WILL
LEAN TEMPS TOWARD A COOLER THAN NORMAL HIGHS AND NEAR NORMAL LOWS.

MON AND TUE...
GUIDANCE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT HIGH PRES FINALLY IS ABLE
TO NOSE ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE S. THIS ALLOWS GRADUAL WARMING
THROUGH THE COLUMN AND DRY CONDITIONS. THE WARMING MAY YIELD H85
TEMPS NEAR +14C BY TUE EVENING. THEREFORE...WILL LIKELY SEE ENOUGH
WARMING TO YIELD TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL...POSSIBLY THE UPPER
60S TO NEAR 70 BY TUE.

WED...
GUIDANCE DIFFERS HERE ON THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
YIELDING SOLUTIONS OF A PASSAGE DURING THE DAY ON WED...TO DURING
THE DAY ON THU. THEREFORE...MAY AT LEAST HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR A SHOWER WITH THIS FROPA.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THU/...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON OVERALL TRENDS BUT LOWER ON EXACT
DETAILS INCLUDING TIMING.

TODAY...IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS/FOG AND SPOTTY DRIZZLE THIS
MORNING SHOULD LIFT TO MVFR AS A STEADY RAIN MOVES ONSHORE AFTER
18Z. ALSO NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER
NORTHEAST MA INTO SOUTHEAST NH WHERE GUSTS UP TO 35 KT ARE
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY DURING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN. LLWS LIKELY AS
LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST JET DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHERN NH AND NORTHEAST
MA. CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDER OVER RI AND SOUTHEAST MA AFTER 21Z.

TONIGHT...IFR/LIFR IN PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER.
LLWS ACROSS EASTERN AND CENTRAL MA AND SOUTHERN NH. GUSTY NE WINDS
ESPECIALLY IN THE HEAVIER RAIN BANDS.

THU...IFR/LIFR IN PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN DURING THE MORNING THEN
TRENDING TOWARD MVFR LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS HEAVY RAIN TAPERS
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS. LLWS POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING OVER SOUTHERN
NH AND CENTRAL-EASTERN MA.

KBOS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACT
DETAILS. LLWS LIKELY AFTER 18Z AS STRONG NE LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS
AND PERSIST INTO THU AM.

KBDL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACT
DETAILS. LOW PROB OF LLWS TONIGHT INTO THU AM AS STRONG LOW LEVEL
NE JET DEVELOPS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/FOG ARE
EXPECTED.

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT.  MAINLY VFR AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST.

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO BE PREDOMINANTLY VFR. A PERIOD
OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED SHOWERS.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE LATE DAY SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

***HIGH SEAS AND GALE FORCE NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS LIKELY TODAY AND
  TONIGHT ACROSS EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS ***

TODAY...NE GALES DEVELOP AROUND 15Z ACROSS THE CAPE ANN WATERS AND
CONTINUING THE REMINDER OF THE DAY. ELSEWHERE NE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
IN THE 20-25KT RANGE. HEAVY RAIN AND TSTMS ENTER THE SOUTHERN
WATERS THIS EVENING AND THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS OVERNIGHT.

TONIGHT...NE GALES LIKELY ACROSS CAPE ANN WATERS. SCA ELSEWHERE.
HEAVY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED TSTM ALL WATERS.

THU...HEAVY RAIN AND SCT TSTMS EXIT THE WATERS BY MIDDAY. NE WINDS
OVER THE CAPE ANN WATERS SHOULD EASE DURING THE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS ALL WATERS BUT
GRADUALLY DIMINISH FRI INTO FRI NIGHT. NW WINDS WITH GUSTS AROUND
25 KT POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY FRI...WITH SEAS RANGING 5-9FT
/HIGHEST AROUND CAPE ANN/ AND GRADUALLY DIMINISHING BY FRI NIGHT.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER. ALTHOUGH WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KT
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER SRN WATERS OUT OF THE NW.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS AND SEAS ONCE AGAIN INCREASE WITH SEAS REACHING 5-7 FT ON S
AND SE WATERS WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KT OUT OF THE NW. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY TO BE NEEDED AGAIN.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
FORTUNATELY ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES ARE RATHER LOW THIS WEEK.
THIS WILL LOWER THE RISK OF COASTAL FLOODING. HOWEVER NORTHEAST
GALES OVER THE CAPE ANN WATERS ALONG WITH THE DURATION OF ONSHORE
WINDS WILL YIELD A LOW RISK OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. ALTHOUGH
GIVEN THE LOWER WATER LEVELS EROSION IS MORE LIKELY GIVEN THE
PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS AND WAVES BATTERING THE COASTLINE. AGAIN
GREATEST RISK FOR EROSION IS ACROSS SALISBURY AND PLUM ISLAND.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     MAZ005>007-013>019-026.
NH...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     NHZ012-015.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ231>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ230-236.
     GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 220621
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
221 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME A SOAKING WIND
SWEPT RAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THURSDAY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A COASTAL STORM. SHOWERS WILL LINGER FRIDAY AS
THE STORM SLOWLY PULLS AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND. MAINLY DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

2 AM UPDATE...

NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. MOIST NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO YIELD LOW CLOUDS/FOG AND SPOTTY DRIZZLE. WIDESPREAD/APPRECIABLE
RAINFALL NOT EXPECTED UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON WHEN COASTAL LOW
INTENSIFIES IN RESPONSE TO STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROUNDING THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH AND TAKING AIM AT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

NE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS ON THE COOL/DAMP SIDE WITH READINGS IN THE
50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
***A SOAKING RAIN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY WITH THE
  HEAVIEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS***

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY...AS MOIST ONSHORE
NORTHEAST FLOW INCREASES. THE WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN WILL WAIT
UNTIL LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND PARTICULARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE SOAKING RAIN WILL DEVELOP AS LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED
CLOSED MID LEVEL CENTERS LIFTS NORTHEAST.  A STRONG EASTERLY LOW
LEVEL JET OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND
STRONG LIFT FOR A WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN EVENT.  THE CORE OF THE
STRONGEST LOW LEVEL JET WILL SETUP ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST
ZONES...WHICH IS WHERE WE EXPECT THE HEAVIEST RAIN.  OVERALL...
EXPECT A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS MOST OF OUR REGION
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. THE EXCEPTION MIGHT BE OUR FAR NORTHEAST
ZONES...WHERE 2 TO 3 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS SEEM REASONABLE.  THERE
IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF SOME 4 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN OUR FAR
NORTHEAST ZONES...MAINLY IN ESSEX COUNTY.  IF THIS WERE TO
MATERIALIZE...WE MIGHT HAVE SOME FLOODING ISSUES DEPENDING ON HOW
FAST IT FALLS.  HOWEVER...SINCE ITS A LOW PROBABILITY AND A 3RD AND
4TH PERIOD EVENT DID NOT ISSUE ANY FLOOD HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THINGS CLOSELY...ESPECIALLY IF MODEL TRENDS
SLIDE THE AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN CURRENTLY
INDICATED.  REGARDLESS...EXPECT TYPICAL NUISANCE POOR DRAINAGE
STREET FLOODING ISSUES.

FINALLY...WE DID NOTE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY LATE WED INTO WED
NIGHT.  INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST...BUT DO
NOT EXPECT ANYTHING WIDESPREAD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
* LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL BRING RAIN THU
* LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON FRI
* MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER THIS WEEKEND

OVERALL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES WITH A COUPLE OF FEATURES AS WELL AS
SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MESOSCALE DETAILS BUT THOSE ARE TO BE
EXPECTED.  THE MAIN WEATHER STORY WILL BE THE LONG DURATION COASTAL
STORM EARLY IN THE PERIOD.  AFTER THE COASTAL STORM MOVES AWAY FROM
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...THE WEATHER DRIES OUT AND BECOMES MORE
SEASONABLE.  UPPER LEVEL FLOW FLATTENS OUT LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MORE ZONAL FLOW EXPECTED.

THURSDAY...EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN TO CONTINUE AS A COASTAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES UP THE COAST TO MAINE.  AN ADDITIONAL
HALF TO INCH AND A HALF OF RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF
THE AREA THURSDAY.  AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
AND THEN THE MARITIMES...EXPECT HIGHEST AMOUNTS TO OCCUR ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE EAST COAST OF MASSACHUSETTS...PARTICULARLY ON CAPE COD AND
CAPE ANN WHERE RAIN WILL LAST THE LONGEST.  WITH THE HIGHER PWATS
AND LOW LEVEL JET STRONGEST ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...EXPECT THE
HEAVIEST RAIN AND THE STRONGEST WINDS TO OCCUR THERE.  THE ONE
EXCEPTION COULD BE ALONG CAPE ANN WHERE THERE MAY BE SOME STRONG
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OFF THE OCEAN.  COOL...ONSHORE FLOW AND OVERCAST
SKIES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S DURING THE DAY
AND IN THE 50S OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY...COULD SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP
INTO THE MARITIMES BUT WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BRINGING
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION.  OVERALL EXPECT DRIER WEATHER
AND A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AS THE DAY GOES ON.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE
NORTHEAST BUT HERE IS WHERE WE SEE SOME DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE
ECMWF AND THE GFS.  THE ECMWF HAS A STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER
TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WHILE THE GFS HAS A MORE NEUTRAL
UPPER TROUGH.  IN BOTH MODELS LOW PRESSURE IN QUEBEC WILL PULL A
COLD FRONT THROUGH AT LEAST A PORTION OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THE
GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE FRONT AND HAS MORE MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH IT...RESULTING IN A GREATER CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH
THE FRONT.  EXPECTING DRY SEASONABLE WEATHER SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND THEN SLIDES
SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
QUEBEC MAY BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.  ANOTHER CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE
WITH THIS FRONT BUT PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THU/...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON OVERALL TRENDS BUT LOWER ON EXACT
DETAILS INCLUDING TIMING.

TODAY...IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS/FOG AND SPOTTY DRIZZLE THIS
MORNING SHOULD LIFT TO MVFR AS A STEADY RAIN MOVES ONSHORE AFTER
18Z. ALSO NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER
NORTHEAST MA INTO SOUTHEAST NH WHERE GUSTS UP TO 35 KT ARE
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY DURING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN. LLWS LIKELY AS
LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST JET DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHERN NH AND NORTHEAST
MA. CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDER OVER RI AND SOUTHEAST MA AFTER 21Z.

TONIGHT...IFR/LIFR IN PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER.
LLWS ACROSS EASTERN AND CENTRAL MA AND SOUTHERN NH. GUSTY NE WINDS
ESPECIALLY IN THE HEAVIER RAIN BANDS.

THU...IFR/LIFR IN PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN DURING THE MORNING THEN
TRENDING TOWARD MVFR LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS HEAVY RAIN TAPERS
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS. LLWS POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING OVER SOUTHERN
NH AND CENTRAL-EASTERN MA.

KBOS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACT
DETAILS. LLWS LIKELY AFTER 18Z AS STRONG NE LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS
AND PERSIST INTO THU AM.

KBDL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACT
DETAILS. LOW PROB OF LLWS TONIGHT INTO THU AM AS STRONG LOW LEVEL
NE JET DEVELOPS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...


FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO VFR EXPECTED IN
CLEARING SKIES.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.  LOW PROBABILITY OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

***HIGH SEAS AND GALE FORCE NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
  NIGHT ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST ATLANTIC WATERS***

945 PM UPDATE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. NE WINDS WILL INCREASE
TOWARD MORNING ACROSS THE CAPE ANN WATERS WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KT
POSSIBLE. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

======================================================================

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST LATER TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.  WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE WATERS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS...EXCEPT FOR THE NORTHEAST WATERS WHERE
GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LOW
PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AS AN INTENSIFYING EASTERLY LOW LEVEL
JET DEVELOPS.  AT THE SURFACE...SHOULD SEE NORTHEAST SCA WIND GUSTS
OVERSPREAD MOST OF OUR WATERS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.  THE CORE OF
THE STRONGEST JET WILL BE NORTH OUR WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  STILL
THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF NORTHEAST 35 KNOT WIND GUSTS ACROSS
OUT FAR NORTHEAST WATERS.  THEREFORE...HAVE ISSUED A GALE WATCH FOR
THIS LOCATION.  ALSO...SEAS MAY BUILD TO AROUND 15 FEET IN OUR
EXTREME NORTHEAST ATLANTIC WATERS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. 10 TO 15 FOOT SEAS ON THE NORTHEASTERN
WATERS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON...5 TO 10 FOOT SEAS ELSEWHERE WILL DO THE SAME.
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 20 TO 25 KTS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE
DAY AS WELL.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR MOST
WATERS FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE DAY.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER.
WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE SLOWLY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  SEAS AND WINDS INCREASE GRADUALLY ON
THE SOUTHERN WATERS...BRIEFLY REACHING SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
FORTUNATELY ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES ARE RATHER LOW OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS AND THE CORE OF THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE TO OUR NORTH.
THEREFORE...THE RISK OF EVEN MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS QUITE LOW.
HOWEVER...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MINOR BEACH EROSION ALONG
THE SALISBURY AND PLUM ISLAND COASTS DURING THE HIGH TIDES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY.  NO COASTAL FLOOD HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED
THOUGH FOR THIS UPCOMING EVENT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ231>235-237.
     GALE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ251-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/RLG
NEAR TERM...FRANK/NOCERA/RLG
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...FRANK/NOCERA/RLG
MARINE...FRANK/RLG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KALY 220553
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
153 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND THEN NORTHEAST TO THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY. A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN AND COOL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FROM
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST RAIN EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 130 AM...HOURLY TEMP GRIDS AND OVERNIGHT LOW TEMP GRID WERE A
LITTLE TOO COLD AND HAVE RAISED TEMPS BY AROUND 3 DEGREES...WITH
LOWS NOW FORECAST TO BE IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50. HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED
THE POP/WX GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. THE BIGGEST CHANGE
WAS TO RAISE POPS TO LIKELY OVER THE SOUTHEAST CATSKILLS.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD ARE FOCUSING
BANDS OF SHOWERS WHICH ARE MOVING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE FA AS INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST IS
ALLOWING THE SHOWERS TO REDEVELOP ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
SE CATSKILL REGION. THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE
NORTHWARD THROUGH THIS EVENING...SO SOME RAIN SHOULD REACH MUCH OF
THE CAPITAL REGION...BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN VT THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING.

SHOWERS MAY DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE LATE TONIGHT...ESP FOR
AREAS E OF THE HUDSON RIVER...AS THE BULK OF FORCING SHIFTS TO OUR
S AND W ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW...AND
ALSO OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST IN THE REGION OF STRENGTHENING WARM
ADVECTION. HAVE KEPT CHC POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
TONIGHT...EXPECTING THE GENERAL AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS TO
DECREASE...ALTHOUGH AGAIN...MAY REMAIN A BIT GREATER ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY AND EASTERN CATSKILLS.

SPOTTY DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY ALSO DEVELOP BETWEEN THE SHOWERS AS LOW
LEVELS MOISTEN...AND INTERACT WITH THE TERRAIN.

MIN TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY FALL INTO THE 40S IN MOST AREAS BY
DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY...AT THIS TIME...BARRING ANY SMALLER...UNRESOLVED
SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEVELOPING
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR SOUTH...IT APPEARS THAT LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF FORCING WILL BE PRESENT OVER OUR REGION FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST
HALF OF THE DAY. THEREFORE...HAVE INDICATED ONLY CHC POPS FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...AS MID/UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT
DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY...AND
PIVOTS BACK WESTWARD...THE AREAL COVERAGE OF RAIN AND/OR SHOWERS
SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON...ESP ACROSS SOUTHERN VT AND
THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND NW MA. FURTHER S AND W...AREAL
COVERAGE MAY ONCE AGAIN REMAIN SPOTTY INTO THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS
EVEN A POSSIBILITY OF SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOPING IN SOME
AREAS DURING THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE MOISTURE DEEPENS
AGAIN FROM NE TO SW LATE IN THE DAY. ASSUMING RAINFALL REMAINS
FAIRLY LIMITED...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 50S IN MOST
AREAS...EXCEPT FOR UPPER 40S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VT...AND THE EASTERN CATSKILLS.

WED NT-THU...THIS APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR A WIDESPREAD PERIOD OF
RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MODERATE TO PERHAPS LOCALLY HVY
POCKETS OF RAIN...ESP ACROSS HIGHER...E-FACING SLOPES ACROSS
SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA...THE SE ADIRONDACKS...AND ALSO THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS. THE BULK OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE
COMBINATION OF AN E/NE LOW LEVEL JET OF 40-50 KT TRANSLATING
WESTWARD TOWARD THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
VT/WESTERN MA...ALONG WITH DEEP LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING AROUND THE W/NW PERIPHERY OF THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL
LOW...SHOULD FAVOR SOME BANDS OF MOD-HVY RAINFALL PIVOTING
WEST...THEN SW ACROSS THE REGION LATE WED NT INTO AT LEAST THU AM.
AGAIN...AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE COMBINATION OF UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE SHOULD FAVOR
THE GREATEST RAINFALL AMTS FROM SOUTHERN VT INTO SE
ADIRONDACKS...WHERE UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL COULD OCCUR. A
SECONDARY MAX OF AROUND 2 INCHES APPEARS POSSIBLE IN THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS DUE TO UPSLOPE...WHILE A MIN SHOULD OCCUR WITHIN THE
IMMEDIATE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...WITH GENERALLY 0.5-1.5 INCHES
OCCURRING. WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE GUSTY FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST
AS WELL...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING OR EXCEEDING 35 MPH
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS...BERKSHIRES
AND TACONICS...AND POSSIBLY WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY DUE TO SOME FUNNELING EFFECTS...WHERE SOME GUSTS OF
30-35 MPH COULD ALSO OCCUR. WED NT MIN TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY FALL
INTO THE 40S IN MOST AREAS...AND MAXES MAY REMAIN BELOW 50 IN
MANY AREAS ON THU DUE TO CLOUDS...RAIN AND A PERSISTENT NORTH WIND
FUNNELING COOL AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR SOUTHWARD...WHILE WET BULB
EFFECTS OCCUR WITH THE FALLING RAINFALL. IF THE RAIN DECREASES IN
AREAL COVERAGE IN THE AFTERNOON...SLIGHTLY WARMER MAX TEMPS WOULD
THEN BE POSSIBLE.

THU NT...SOME ADDITIONAL BANDS OF SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE TO ROTATE
SOUTHWEST/SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION...ESP EARLY AND FOR AREAS NEAR
AND E OF THE HUDSON RIVER. TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER 40S IN
MOST AREAS...WITH SOME UPPER 30S POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
WITHIN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND CATSKILLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT UNSETTLED AND ENDS WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS.

ON FRIDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED IN THE
GULF OF MAINE WITH A CYCLONIC FLOW BACK ACRS THE FA. THIS WILL KEEP
CLOUDS ACRS THE REGION WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY ACRS THE NRN
TWO THIRDS OF THE FA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS ON FRIDAY
TO BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER
30S TO MID 40S.

FOR SATURDAY...DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH A FEW LINGER
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE NOSING INTO THE FA FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY. EXPECT HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY AT THIS POINT LOOK MAINLY DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE FA. HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 60 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTHWEST TO THE
LOWER 40S SOUTHEAST. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE A MILDER DAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE CAROLINAS AND A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/..
A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF THE DELMARVA WILL
PROVIDE A MOIST NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS.

COVERAGE OF SHOWERS HAS DECREASED SO WILL ONLY MENTION VCSH FOR THE
REST OF THE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...CIGS HAVE LOWERED INTO IFR RANGE AT
MOST OF THE TERMINALS AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN IFR RANGE WITH
OCCASIONAL LOWER-END MVFR LEVELS THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING.
SHOWERS WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN COVERAGE BY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A
STEADY RAIN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING AS THE COASTAL LOW
TRACKS CLOSER TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MVFR/IFR WILL CONTINUE WITH
MOIST LOW LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW PERSISTING.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AROUND 5-10 KTS...INCREASING TO
10-15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS AS THE COASTAL LOW
STRENGTHENS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PDS RA.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. OCNL SHRA...RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY TO SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND THEN NORTHEAST TO THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY. A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN AND COOL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FROM
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST RAIN EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK...EVEN THOUGH WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND
WET AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF SOUTH AND EAST THE REGION.
INTERMITTENT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FROM TODAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH
THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL EXPECTED FOR LATE WED INTO
EARLY THU.

WITH THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR...ESP LATE WED INTO EARLY THU. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO
TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA
DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL
WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD OF A FEW DAYS...SO NO WIDESPREAD
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS
THAT THE GREATEST AMTS...UP TO 2 INCHES...WOULD BE FAVORED ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...ESP SOUTHERN VT...AND
POSSIBLY THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...WITH LESS AMTS...GENERALLY 0.5 TO
1.5 INCHES...OCCURRING WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DUE TO
DOWNSLOPING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/KL
NEAR TERM...GJM/KL/11
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM







000
FXUS61 KALY 220553
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
153 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND THEN NORTHEAST TO THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY. A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN AND COOL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FROM
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST RAIN EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 130 AM...HOURLY TEMP GRIDS AND OVERNIGHT LOW TEMP GRID WERE A
LITTLE TOO COLD AND HAVE RAISED TEMPS BY AROUND 3 DEGREES...WITH
LOWS NOW FORECAST TO BE IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50. HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED
THE POP/WX GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. THE BIGGEST CHANGE
WAS TO RAISE POPS TO LIKELY OVER THE SOUTHEAST CATSKILLS.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD ARE FOCUSING
BANDS OF SHOWERS WHICH ARE MOVING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE FA AS INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST IS
ALLOWING THE SHOWERS TO REDEVELOP ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
SE CATSKILL REGION. THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE
NORTHWARD THROUGH THIS EVENING...SO SOME RAIN SHOULD REACH MUCH OF
THE CAPITAL REGION...BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN VT THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING.

SHOWERS MAY DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE LATE TONIGHT...ESP FOR
AREAS E OF THE HUDSON RIVER...AS THE BULK OF FORCING SHIFTS TO OUR
S AND W ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW...AND
ALSO OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST IN THE REGION OF STRENGTHENING WARM
ADVECTION. HAVE KEPT CHC POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
TONIGHT...EXPECTING THE GENERAL AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS TO
DECREASE...ALTHOUGH AGAIN...MAY REMAIN A BIT GREATER ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY AND EASTERN CATSKILLS.

SPOTTY DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY ALSO DEVELOP BETWEEN THE SHOWERS AS LOW
LEVELS MOISTEN...AND INTERACT WITH THE TERRAIN.

MIN TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY FALL INTO THE 40S IN MOST AREAS BY
DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY...AT THIS TIME...BARRING ANY SMALLER...UNRESOLVED
SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEVELOPING
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR SOUTH...IT APPEARS THAT LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF FORCING WILL BE PRESENT OVER OUR REGION FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST
HALF OF THE DAY. THEREFORE...HAVE INDICATED ONLY CHC POPS FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...AS MID/UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT
DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY...AND
PIVOTS BACK WESTWARD...THE AREAL COVERAGE OF RAIN AND/OR SHOWERS
SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON...ESP ACROSS SOUTHERN VT AND
THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND NW MA. FURTHER S AND W...AREAL
COVERAGE MAY ONCE AGAIN REMAIN SPOTTY INTO THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS
EVEN A POSSIBILITY OF SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOPING IN SOME
AREAS DURING THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE MOISTURE DEEPENS
AGAIN FROM NE TO SW LATE IN THE DAY. ASSUMING RAINFALL REMAINS
FAIRLY LIMITED...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 50S IN MOST
AREAS...EXCEPT FOR UPPER 40S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VT...AND THE EASTERN CATSKILLS.

WED NT-THU...THIS APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR A WIDESPREAD PERIOD OF
RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MODERATE TO PERHAPS LOCALLY HVY
POCKETS OF RAIN...ESP ACROSS HIGHER...E-FACING SLOPES ACROSS
SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA...THE SE ADIRONDACKS...AND ALSO THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS. THE BULK OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE
COMBINATION OF AN E/NE LOW LEVEL JET OF 40-50 KT TRANSLATING
WESTWARD TOWARD THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
VT/WESTERN MA...ALONG WITH DEEP LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING AROUND THE W/NW PERIPHERY OF THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL
LOW...SHOULD FAVOR SOME BANDS OF MOD-HVY RAINFALL PIVOTING
WEST...THEN SW ACROSS THE REGION LATE WED NT INTO AT LEAST THU AM.
AGAIN...AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE COMBINATION OF UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE SHOULD FAVOR
THE GREATEST RAINFALL AMTS FROM SOUTHERN VT INTO SE
ADIRONDACKS...WHERE UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL COULD OCCUR. A
SECONDARY MAX OF AROUND 2 INCHES APPEARS POSSIBLE IN THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS DUE TO UPSLOPE...WHILE A MIN SHOULD OCCUR WITHIN THE
IMMEDIATE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...WITH GENERALLY 0.5-1.5 INCHES
OCCURRING. WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE GUSTY FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST
AS WELL...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING OR EXCEEDING 35 MPH
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS...BERKSHIRES
AND TACONICS...AND POSSIBLY WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY DUE TO SOME FUNNELING EFFECTS...WHERE SOME GUSTS OF
30-35 MPH COULD ALSO OCCUR. WED NT MIN TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY FALL
INTO THE 40S IN MOST AREAS...AND MAXES MAY REMAIN BELOW 50 IN
MANY AREAS ON THU DUE TO CLOUDS...RAIN AND A PERSISTENT NORTH WIND
FUNNELING COOL AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR SOUTHWARD...WHILE WET BULB
EFFECTS OCCUR WITH THE FALLING RAINFALL. IF THE RAIN DECREASES IN
AREAL COVERAGE IN THE AFTERNOON...SLIGHTLY WARMER MAX TEMPS WOULD
THEN BE POSSIBLE.

THU NT...SOME ADDITIONAL BANDS OF SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE TO ROTATE
SOUTHWEST/SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION...ESP EARLY AND FOR AREAS NEAR
AND E OF THE HUDSON RIVER. TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER 40S IN
MOST AREAS...WITH SOME UPPER 30S POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
WITHIN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND CATSKILLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT UNSETTLED AND ENDS WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS.

ON FRIDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED IN THE
GULF OF MAINE WITH A CYCLONIC FLOW BACK ACRS THE FA. THIS WILL KEEP
CLOUDS ACRS THE REGION WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY ACRS THE NRN
TWO THIRDS OF THE FA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS ON FRIDAY
TO BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER
30S TO MID 40S.

FOR SATURDAY...DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH A FEW LINGER
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE NOSING INTO THE FA FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY. EXPECT HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY AT THIS POINT LOOK MAINLY DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE FA. HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 60 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTHWEST TO THE
LOWER 40S SOUTHEAST. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE A MILDER DAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE CAROLINAS AND A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/..
A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF THE DELMARVA WILL
PROVIDE A MOIST NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS.

COVERAGE OF SHOWERS HAS DECREASED SO WILL ONLY MENTION VCSH FOR THE
REST OF THE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...CIGS HAVE LOWERED INTO IFR RANGE AT
MOST OF THE TERMINALS AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN IFR RANGE WITH
OCCASIONAL LOWER-END MVFR LEVELS THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING.
SHOWERS WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN COVERAGE BY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A
STEADY RAIN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING AS THE COASTAL LOW
TRACKS CLOSER TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MVFR/IFR WILL CONTINUE WITH
MOIST LOW LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW PERSISTING.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AROUND 5-10 KTS...INCREASING TO
10-15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS AS THE COASTAL LOW
STRENGTHENS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PDS RA.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. OCNL SHRA...RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY TO SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND THEN NORTHEAST TO THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY. A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN AND COOL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FROM
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST RAIN EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK...EVEN THOUGH WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND
WET AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF SOUTH AND EAST THE REGION.
INTERMITTENT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FROM TODAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH
THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL EXPECTED FOR LATE WED INTO
EARLY THU.

WITH THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR...ESP LATE WED INTO EARLY THU. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO
TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA
DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL
WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD OF A FEW DAYS...SO NO WIDESPREAD
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS
THAT THE GREATEST AMTS...UP TO 2 INCHES...WOULD BE FAVORED ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...ESP SOUTHERN VT...AND
POSSIBLY THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...WITH LESS AMTS...GENERALLY 0.5 TO
1.5 INCHES...OCCURRING WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DUE TO
DOWNSLOPING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/KL
NEAR TERM...GJM/KL/11
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM







000
FXUS61 KOKX 220551
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
151 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE DELMARVA AREA...AND THEN WILL
MEANDER SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE LOW THEN TRACKS
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES LATE THIS WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES SATURDAY...THEN
CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA. THIS CONTINUES TO MOVE
SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD AND HELP DEEPEN A SFC LOW OFF THE DELMARVA.
AT THE SAME TIME...A 1030S HI OVER QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE TO EASE
TOWARDS THE MARITIMES. AS A RESULT...LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS ALREADY
BACKED TO THE N ACROSS THE CWA.

THE STABLE FLOW WILL REDUCE TSTM CHANCES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT. HOWEVER...A FEW ISOLATED TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED.

WITH THE NORTHERLY FLOW...IT MAY BE DIFFICULT TO DEVELOP
SIGNIFICANT FOG. MAINTAINED PATCHY.

LOWS WERE TAKEN FROM MAV GUIDANCE...WHICH IS RELATIVELY WARMER
THAN OTHER GUIDANCE...MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
LOW BECOMES NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED BUT STILL RESULTS IN A
SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT FOR CYCLOGENESIS TO OCCUR. THE LOW AT THE
SURFACE SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND GRADUALLY INTENSIFIES WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

WITH COLD POOL ALOFT...RAIN WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS THE
REGION...ALTHOUGH INITIALLY IT LOOKS TO BE VERY LIGHT...PICKING UP
IN INTENSITY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A GUSTY
NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

RAIN MAY BECOME INTERMITTENT AT TIMES WITH DRY INTERVALS. MODELS
ARE HAVING DIFFICULTY PINPOINTING WHERE THE MORE CONSISTENT RAIN
WILL OCCUR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STACKED LOW EAST OF LONG ISLAND THU MORNING WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT
N/NE UP INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ADDITIONAL
SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL THEN FEED INTO THE MEAN TROUGH OVER EASTERN
NOAM SENDING A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION SAT NIGHT.
THEREAFTER... THERE ARE SIGNS THAT A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL
ENSUE WITH THE FORECAST FOR A NEUTRAL NAO AND PNA.

RAIN WILL LINGER ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE COASTAL LOW THU INTO THU
NIGHT BEFORE CONDITIONS DRY OUT. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER
WITH THE CLEARING WITH CLOUD COVER POSSIBLY REMAINING THROUGH SAT.
HOWEVER...HAVE AIRED MORE OPTIMISTICALLY WITH CLEARING LATE FRI INTO
FRI NIGHT. AS FOR THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SAT NIGHT...HAVE
MAINTAINED A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS DO HAVE SOME
LIGHT QPF. PREFER TO SEE MORE RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY BEFORE ADDING
ANY SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FROM SUN
NIGHT INTO MON...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
MIDWEST ON TUE.

THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...GUSTY W-NW WINDS WILL PREVAIL WITH THE
STRONGEST GUSTS LOOKING TO BE ON SUN BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

TEMPS WILL MODERATE FROM BELOW NORMAL ON THU WITH THE RAIN AND CLOUD
COVER TO ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A WARM RIDGE BUILDS IN
ALOFT AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE REMAINS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND TODAY.

OVERALL TODAY...EXPECT PREDOMINATELY MVFR CEILINGS...BETWEEN 1 AND 2
KFT. DO NOT FORESEE VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS UNDER 4 MILES...UNLESS
ANY AIRPORT EXPERIENCES LOCAL HEAVY RAIN FOR A TIME.

ON AND OFF RAIN IS ANTICIPATED. BEST GUESS FOR TIMING WOULD BE THIS
MORNING...AND AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING.

WINDS INCREASE THIS MORNING TO 10 TO 15 KTS. GUSTS BECOME FREQUENT
AFTER 14-16Z. GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT EXPECTED.

THESE WINDS SHOULD INCREASE SOMEWHAT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THIS EVENING. WIND DIRECTION REMAINS NORTH/NORTHEAST THIS
MORNING...THEN DUE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS BACK SLIGHTLY TO THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST THIS EVENING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN ON AND
OFF RA. N-NW WINDS G25-30KT POSSIBLE.
.FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...MOST LIKELY VFR...WITH LOW CHANCE SPOTTY
MVFR. NW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR. NW-W WINDS G25-30KT POSSIBLE.
.SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. NW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS BECOMING E/NE AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS JUST SOUTH OF THE
WATERS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH
TONIGHT AS THE LOW DEEPENS. SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY BY AFTERNOON ON
ALL WATERS. SEAS INCREASE TO 5 TO 6 FT ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE HIGHER OCEAN SEAS CONTINUE INTO THU. SCA
FOR OCEAN WED THROUGH THU AND OTHER WATERS WED AFTERNOON THROUGH
WED NIGHT.

A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ON THE OCEAN
WATERS AS LOW PRESSURE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND THU LIFTS SLOWLY NE AND
UP INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THIS WEEKEND. AT THE SAME
TIME...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY WORK EAST AND INTO THE WATERS BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GUSTY W-NW FLOW. MARGINAL
SCA GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE SOUND...HARBOR...AND SURROUNDING BAYS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH AROUND 1/2 QPF
FORECAST. LOCALIZED NUISANCE URBAN OR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE.

PERIODS OF RAIN...BRIEFLY HEAVY IN SPOTS...COULD RESULT IN
LOCALIZED NUISANCE URBAN OR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING TODAY THROUGH
THU.

STORM TOTALS SHOULD AVERAGE BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES PER ANALYSIS OF
OPERATIONAL MODELS...AND SREF MEMBERS. THERE COULD BE SOME LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS. THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN SHOULD NOT RESULT IN ANY
SERIOUS LIFE THREATENING OR PROPERTY FLOODING ISSUES/CONCERNS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ330-335-338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JM
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...







000
FXUS61 KOKX 220551
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
151 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE DELMARVA AREA...AND THEN WILL
MEANDER SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE LOW THEN TRACKS
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES LATE THIS WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES SATURDAY...THEN
CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA. THIS CONTINUES TO MOVE
SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD AND HELP DEEPEN A SFC LOW OFF THE DELMARVA.
AT THE SAME TIME...A 1030S HI OVER QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE TO EASE
TOWARDS THE MARITIMES. AS A RESULT...LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS ALREADY
BACKED TO THE N ACROSS THE CWA.

THE STABLE FLOW WILL REDUCE TSTM CHANCES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT. HOWEVER...A FEW ISOLATED TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED.

WITH THE NORTHERLY FLOW...IT MAY BE DIFFICULT TO DEVELOP
SIGNIFICANT FOG. MAINTAINED PATCHY.

LOWS WERE TAKEN FROM MAV GUIDANCE...WHICH IS RELATIVELY WARMER
THAN OTHER GUIDANCE...MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
LOW BECOMES NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED BUT STILL RESULTS IN A
SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT FOR CYCLOGENESIS TO OCCUR. THE LOW AT THE
SURFACE SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND GRADUALLY INTENSIFIES WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

WITH COLD POOL ALOFT...RAIN WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS THE
REGION...ALTHOUGH INITIALLY IT LOOKS TO BE VERY LIGHT...PICKING UP
IN INTENSITY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A GUSTY
NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

RAIN MAY BECOME INTERMITTENT AT TIMES WITH DRY INTERVALS. MODELS
ARE HAVING DIFFICULTY PINPOINTING WHERE THE MORE CONSISTENT RAIN
WILL OCCUR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STACKED LOW EAST OF LONG ISLAND THU MORNING WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT
N/NE UP INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ADDITIONAL
SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL THEN FEED INTO THE MEAN TROUGH OVER EASTERN
NOAM SENDING A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION SAT NIGHT.
THEREAFTER... THERE ARE SIGNS THAT A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL
ENSUE WITH THE FORECAST FOR A NEUTRAL NAO AND PNA.

RAIN WILL LINGER ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE COASTAL LOW THU INTO THU
NIGHT BEFORE CONDITIONS DRY OUT. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER
WITH THE CLEARING WITH CLOUD COVER POSSIBLY REMAINING THROUGH SAT.
HOWEVER...HAVE AIRED MORE OPTIMISTICALLY WITH CLEARING LATE FRI INTO
FRI NIGHT. AS FOR THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SAT NIGHT...HAVE
MAINTAINED A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS DO HAVE SOME
LIGHT QPF. PREFER TO SEE MORE RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY BEFORE ADDING
ANY SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FROM SUN
NIGHT INTO MON...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
MIDWEST ON TUE.

THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...GUSTY W-NW WINDS WILL PREVAIL WITH THE
STRONGEST GUSTS LOOKING TO BE ON SUN BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

TEMPS WILL MODERATE FROM BELOW NORMAL ON THU WITH THE RAIN AND CLOUD
COVER TO ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A WARM RIDGE BUILDS IN
ALOFT AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE REMAINS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND TODAY.

OVERALL TODAY...EXPECT PREDOMINATELY MVFR CEILINGS...BETWEEN 1 AND 2
KFT. DO NOT FORESEE VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS UNDER 4 MILES...UNLESS
ANY AIRPORT EXPERIENCES LOCAL HEAVY RAIN FOR A TIME.

ON AND OFF RAIN IS ANTICIPATED. BEST GUESS FOR TIMING WOULD BE THIS
MORNING...AND AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING.

WINDS INCREASE THIS MORNING TO 10 TO 15 KTS. GUSTS BECOME FREQUENT
AFTER 14-16Z. GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT EXPECTED.

THESE WINDS SHOULD INCREASE SOMEWHAT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THIS EVENING. WIND DIRECTION REMAINS NORTH/NORTHEAST THIS
MORNING...THEN DUE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS BACK SLIGHTLY TO THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST THIS EVENING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN ON AND
OFF RA. N-NW WINDS G25-30KT POSSIBLE.
.FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...MOST LIKELY VFR...WITH LOW CHANCE SPOTTY
MVFR. NW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR. NW-W WINDS G25-30KT POSSIBLE.
.SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. NW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS BECOMING E/NE AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS JUST SOUTH OF THE
WATERS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH
TONIGHT AS THE LOW DEEPENS. SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY BY AFTERNOON ON
ALL WATERS. SEAS INCREASE TO 5 TO 6 FT ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE HIGHER OCEAN SEAS CONTINUE INTO THU. SCA
FOR OCEAN WED THROUGH THU AND OTHER WATERS WED AFTERNOON THROUGH
WED NIGHT.

A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ON THE OCEAN
WATERS AS LOW PRESSURE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND THU LIFTS SLOWLY NE AND
UP INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THIS WEEKEND. AT THE SAME
TIME...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY WORK EAST AND INTO THE WATERS BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GUSTY W-NW FLOW. MARGINAL
SCA GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE SOUND...HARBOR...AND SURROUNDING BAYS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH AROUND 1/2 QPF
FORECAST. LOCALIZED NUISANCE URBAN OR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE.

PERIODS OF RAIN...BRIEFLY HEAVY IN SPOTS...COULD RESULT IN
LOCALIZED NUISANCE URBAN OR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING TODAY THROUGH
THU.

STORM TOTALS SHOULD AVERAGE BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES PER ANALYSIS OF
OPERATIONAL MODELS...AND SREF MEMBERS. THERE COULD BE SOME LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS. THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN SHOULD NOT RESULT IN ANY
SERIOUS LIFE THREATENING OR PROPERTY FLOODING ISSUES/CONCERNS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ330-335-338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JM
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...







000
FXUS61 KALY 220544
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
144 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND THEN NORTHEAST TO THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY. A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN AND COOL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FROM
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST RAIN EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 130 AM...HOURLY TEMP GRIDS AND OVERNIGHT LOW TEMP GRID WERE A
LITTLE TOO COLD AND HAVE RAISED TEMPS BY AROUND 3 DEGREES...WITH
LOWS NOW FORECSAT TO BE IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50. HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED
THE POP/WX GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. THE BIGGEST CHANGE
WAS TO RAISE POPS TO LIKELY OVER THE SOUTHEAST CATSKILLS.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD ARE FOCUSING
BANDS OF SHOWERS WHICH ARE MOVING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE FA AS INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST IS
ALLOWING THE SHOWERS TO REDEVELOP ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
SE CATSKILL REGION. THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE
NORTHWARD THROUGH THIS EVENING...SO SOME RAIN SHOULD REACH MUCH OF
THE CAPITAL REGION...BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN VT THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING.

SHOWERS MAY DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE LATE TONIGHT...ESP FOR
AREAS E OF THE HUDSON RIVER...AS THE BULK OF FORCING SHIFTS TO OUR
S AND W ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW...AND
ALSO OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST IN THE REGION OF STRENGTHENING WARM
ADVECTION. HAVE KEPT CHC POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
TONIGHT...EXPECTING THE GENERAL AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS TO
DECREASE...ALTHOUGH AGAIN...MAY REMAIN A BIT GREATER ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY AND EASTERN CATSKILLS.

SPOTTY DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY ALSO DEVELOP BETWEEN THE SHOWERS AS LOW
LEVELS MOISTEN...AND INTERACT WITH THE TERRAIN.

MIN TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY FALL INTO THE 40S IN MOST AREAS BY
DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY...AT THIS TIME...BARRING ANY SMALLER...UNRESOLVED
SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEVELOPING
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR SOUTH...IT APPEARS THAT LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF FORCING WILL BE PRESENT OVER OUR REGION FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST
HALF OF THE DAY. THEREFORE...HAVE INDICATED ONLY CHC POPS FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...AS MID/UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT
DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY...AND
PIVOTS BACK WESTWARD...THE AREAL COVERAGE OF RAIN AND/OR SHOWERS
SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON...ESP ACROSS SOUTHERN VT AND
THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND NW MA. FURTHER S AND W...AREAL
COVERAGE MAY ONCE AGAIN REMAIN SPOTTY INTO THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS
EVEN A POSSIBILITY OF SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOPING IN SOME
AREAS DURING THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE MOISTURE DEEPENS
AGAIN FROM NE TO SW LATE IN THE DAY. ASSUMING RAINFALL REMAINS
FAIRLY LIMITED...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 50S IN MOST
AREAS...EXCEPT FOR UPPER 40S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VT...AND THE EASTERN CATSKILLS.

WED NT-THU...THIS APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR A WIDESPREAD PERIOD OF
RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MODERATE TO PERHAPS LOCALLY HVY
POCKETS OF RAIN...ESP ACROSS HIGHER...E-FACING SLOPES ACROSS
SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA...THE SE ADIRONDACKS...AND ALSO THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS. THE BULK OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE
COMBINATION OF AN E/NE LOW LEVEL JET OF 40-50 KT TRANSLATING
WESTWARD TOWARD THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
VT/WESTERN MA...ALONG WITH DEEP LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING AROUND THE W/NW PERIPHERY OF THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL
LOW...SHOULD FAVOR SOME BANDS OF MOD-HVY RAINFALL PIVOTING
WEST...THEN SW ACROSS THE REGION LATE WED NT INTO AT LEAST THU AM.
AGAIN...AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE COMBINATION OF UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE SHOULD FAVOR
THE GREATEST RAINFALL AMTS FROM SOUTHERN VT INTO SE
ADIRONDACKS...WHERE UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL COULD OCCUR. A
SECONDARY MAX OF AROUND 2 INCHES APPEARS POSSIBLE IN THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS DUE TO UPSLOPE...WHILE A MIN SHOULD OCCUR WITHIN THE
IMMEDIATE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...WITH GENERALLY 0.5-1.5 INCHES
OCCURRING. WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE GUSTY FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST
AS WELL...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING OR EXCEEDING 35 MPH
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS...BERKSHIRES
AND TACONICS...AND POSSIBLY WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY DUE TO SOME FUNNELING EFFECTS...WHERE SOME GUSTS OF
30-35 MPH COULD ALSO OCCUR. WED NT MIN TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY FALL
INTO THE 40S IN MOST AREAS...AND MAXES MAY REMAIN BELOW 50 IN
MANY AREAS ON THU DUE TO CLOUDS...RAIN AND A PERSISTENT NORTH WIND
FUNNELING COOL AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR SOUTHWARD...WHILE WET BULB
EFFECTS OCCUR WITH THE FALLING RAINFALL. IF THE RAIN DECREASES IN
AREAL COVERAGE IN THE AFTERNOON...SLIGHTLY WARMER MAX TEMPS WOULD
THEN BE POSSIBLE.

THU NT...SOME ADDITIONAL BANDS OF SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE TO ROTATE
SOUTHWEST/SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION...ESP EARLY AND FOR AREAS NEAR
AND E OF THE HUDSON RIVER. TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER 40S IN
MOST AREAS...WITH SOME UPPER 30S POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
WITHIN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND CATSKILLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT UNSETTLED AND ENDS WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS.

ON FRIDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED IN THE
GULF OF MAINE WITH A CYCLONIC FLOW BACK ACRS THE FA. THIS WILL KEEP
CLOUDS ACRS THE REGION WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY ACRS THE NRN
TWO THIRDS OF THE FA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS ON FRIDAY
TO BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER
30S TO MID 40S.

FOR SATURDAY...DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH A FEW LINGER
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE NOSING INTO THE FA FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY. EXPECT HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY AT THIS POINT LOOK MAINLY DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE FA. HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 60 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTHWEST TO THE
LOWER 40S SOUTHEAST. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE A MILDER DAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE CAROLINAS AND A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 00Z THURSDAY. MAINLY ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS ON THE RADAR THIS EVENING SO VCSH/-SHRA IN
FORECAST AT THE TAF SITES. EXPECT INCREASING COVERAGE LATE TONIGHT
AND THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING AS THE MAIN UPPER ENERGY TRACKS
CLOSER TO THE REGION AND THE COASTAL LOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP.

WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KTS TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PDS RA.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. OCNL SHRA...RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND THEN NORTHEAST TO THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY. A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN AND COOL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FROM
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST RAIN EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK...EVEN THOUGH WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND
WET AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF SOUTH AND EAST THE REGION.
INTERMITTENT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FROM TODAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH
THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL EXPECTED FOR LATE WED INTO
EARLY THU.

WITH THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR...ESP LATE WED INTO EARLY THU. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO
TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA
DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL
WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD OF A FEW DAYS...SO NO WIDESPREAD
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS
THAT THE GREATEST AMTS...UP TO 2 INCHES...WOULD BE FAVORED ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...ESP SOUTHERN VT...AND
POSSIBLY THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...WITH LESS AMTS...GENERALLY 0.5 TO
1.5 INCHES...OCCURRING WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DUE TO
DOWNSLOPING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/KL
NEAR TERM...GJM/KL/11
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM











000
FXUS61 KALY 220544
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
144 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND THEN NORTHEAST TO THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY. A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN AND COOL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FROM
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST RAIN EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 130 AM...HOURLY TEMP GRIDS AND OVERNIGHT LOW TEMP GRID WERE A
LITTLE TOO COLD AND HAVE RAISED TEMPS BY AROUND 3 DEGREES...WITH
LOWS NOW FORECSAT TO BE IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50. HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED
THE POP/WX GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. THE BIGGEST CHANGE
WAS TO RAISE POPS TO LIKELY OVER THE SOUTHEAST CATSKILLS.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD ARE FOCUSING
BANDS OF SHOWERS WHICH ARE MOVING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE FA AS INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST IS
ALLOWING THE SHOWERS TO REDEVELOP ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
SE CATSKILL REGION. THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE
NORTHWARD THROUGH THIS EVENING...SO SOME RAIN SHOULD REACH MUCH OF
THE CAPITAL REGION...BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN VT THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING.

SHOWERS MAY DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE LATE TONIGHT...ESP FOR
AREAS E OF THE HUDSON RIVER...AS THE BULK OF FORCING SHIFTS TO OUR
S AND W ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW...AND
ALSO OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST IN THE REGION OF STRENGTHENING WARM
ADVECTION. HAVE KEPT CHC POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
TONIGHT...EXPECTING THE GENERAL AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS TO
DECREASE...ALTHOUGH AGAIN...MAY REMAIN A BIT GREATER ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY AND EASTERN CATSKILLS.

SPOTTY DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY ALSO DEVELOP BETWEEN THE SHOWERS AS LOW
LEVELS MOISTEN...AND INTERACT WITH THE TERRAIN.

MIN TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY FALL INTO THE 40S IN MOST AREAS BY
DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY...AT THIS TIME...BARRING ANY SMALLER...UNRESOLVED
SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEVELOPING
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR SOUTH...IT APPEARS THAT LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF FORCING WILL BE PRESENT OVER OUR REGION FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST
HALF OF THE DAY. THEREFORE...HAVE INDICATED ONLY CHC POPS FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...AS MID/UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT
DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY...AND
PIVOTS BACK WESTWARD...THE AREAL COVERAGE OF RAIN AND/OR SHOWERS
SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON...ESP ACROSS SOUTHERN VT AND
THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND NW MA. FURTHER S AND W...AREAL
COVERAGE MAY ONCE AGAIN REMAIN SPOTTY INTO THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS
EVEN A POSSIBILITY OF SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOPING IN SOME
AREAS DURING THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE MOISTURE DEEPENS
AGAIN FROM NE TO SW LATE IN THE DAY. ASSUMING RAINFALL REMAINS
FAIRLY LIMITED...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 50S IN MOST
AREAS...EXCEPT FOR UPPER 40S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VT...AND THE EASTERN CATSKILLS.

WED NT-THU...THIS APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR A WIDESPREAD PERIOD OF
RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MODERATE TO PERHAPS LOCALLY HVY
POCKETS OF RAIN...ESP ACROSS HIGHER...E-FACING SLOPES ACROSS
SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA...THE SE ADIRONDACKS...AND ALSO THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS. THE BULK OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE
COMBINATION OF AN E/NE LOW LEVEL JET OF 40-50 KT TRANSLATING
WESTWARD TOWARD THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
VT/WESTERN MA...ALONG WITH DEEP LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING AROUND THE W/NW PERIPHERY OF THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL
LOW...SHOULD FAVOR SOME BANDS OF MOD-HVY RAINFALL PIVOTING
WEST...THEN SW ACROSS THE REGION LATE WED NT INTO AT LEAST THU AM.
AGAIN...AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE COMBINATION OF UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE SHOULD FAVOR
THE GREATEST RAINFALL AMTS FROM SOUTHERN VT INTO SE
ADIRONDACKS...WHERE UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL COULD OCCUR. A
SECONDARY MAX OF AROUND 2 INCHES APPEARS POSSIBLE IN THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS DUE TO UPSLOPE...WHILE A MIN SHOULD OCCUR WITHIN THE
IMMEDIATE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...WITH GENERALLY 0.5-1.5 INCHES
OCCURRING. WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE GUSTY FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST
AS WELL...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING OR EXCEEDING 35 MPH
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS...BERKSHIRES
AND TACONICS...AND POSSIBLY WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY DUE TO SOME FUNNELING EFFECTS...WHERE SOME GUSTS OF
30-35 MPH COULD ALSO OCCUR. WED NT MIN TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY FALL
INTO THE 40S IN MOST AREAS...AND MAXES MAY REMAIN BELOW 50 IN
MANY AREAS ON THU DUE TO CLOUDS...RAIN AND A PERSISTENT NORTH WIND
FUNNELING COOL AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR SOUTHWARD...WHILE WET BULB
EFFECTS OCCUR WITH THE FALLING RAINFALL. IF THE RAIN DECREASES IN
AREAL COVERAGE IN THE AFTERNOON...SLIGHTLY WARMER MAX TEMPS WOULD
THEN BE POSSIBLE.

THU NT...SOME ADDITIONAL BANDS OF SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE TO ROTATE
SOUTHWEST/SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION...ESP EARLY AND FOR AREAS NEAR
AND E OF THE HUDSON RIVER. TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER 40S IN
MOST AREAS...WITH SOME UPPER 30S POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
WITHIN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND CATSKILLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT UNSETTLED AND ENDS WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS.

ON FRIDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED IN THE
GULF OF MAINE WITH A CYCLONIC FLOW BACK ACRS THE FA. THIS WILL KEEP
CLOUDS ACRS THE REGION WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY ACRS THE NRN
TWO THIRDS OF THE FA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS ON FRIDAY
TO BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER
30S TO MID 40S.

FOR SATURDAY...DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH A FEW LINGER
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE NOSING INTO THE FA FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY. EXPECT HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY AT THIS POINT LOOK MAINLY DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE FA. HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 60 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTHWEST TO THE
LOWER 40S SOUTHEAST. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE A MILDER DAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE CAROLINAS AND A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 00Z THURSDAY. MAINLY ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS ON THE RADAR THIS EVENING SO VCSH/-SHRA IN
FORECAST AT THE TAF SITES. EXPECT INCREASING COVERAGE LATE TONIGHT
AND THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING AS THE MAIN UPPER ENERGY TRACKS
CLOSER TO THE REGION AND THE COASTAL LOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP.

WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KTS TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PDS RA.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. OCNL SHRA...RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND THEN NORTHEAST TO THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY. A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN AND COOL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FROM
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST RAIN EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK...EVEN THOUGH WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND
WET AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF SOUTH AND EAST THE REGION.
INTERMITTENT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FROM TODAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH
THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL EXPECTED FOR LATE WED INTO
EARLY THU.

WITH THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR...ESP LATE WED INTO EARLY THU. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO
TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA
DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL
WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD OF A FEW DAYS...SO NO WIDESPREAD
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS
THAT THE GREATEST AMTS...UP TO 2 INCHES...WOULD BE FAVORED ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...ESP SOUTHERN VT...AND
POSSIBLY THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...WITH LESS AMTS...GENERALLY 0.5 TO
1.5 INCHES...OCCURRING WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DUE TO
DOWNSLOPING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/KL
NEAR TERM...GJM/KL/11
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM











000
FXUS61 KOKX 220233
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1033 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE DELMARVA AREA...AND THEN WILL
MEANDER SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE LOW THEN TRACKS
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES LATE THIS WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES SATURDAY...THEN
CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN PA. THIS WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD
AND HELP TO DEEPEN A SFC LOW OFF THE DELMARVA. AT THE SAME
TIME...A 1030S HI OVER QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE TO EASE TOWARDS THE
MARITIMES. AS A RESULT...LOW LEVEL FLOW IS ALREADY BACKING TO THE
N ACROSS THE CWA...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE.

THE STABLE FLOW WILL REDUCE TSTM CHANCES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT. THEY MAY BE REMOVED WITH THE NEXT UPDATE. DID REMOVE THE
HAIL HOWEVER AS MLCAPE DECREASES.

WITH THE NORTHERLY FLOW...IT MAY BE DIFFICULT TO DEVELOP
SIGNIFICANT FOG. MAINTAINED PATCHY BUT INCREASED VSBY.

LOWS WERE TAKEN FROM MAV GUIDANCE...WHICH IS RELATIVELY WARMER
THAN OTHER GUIDANCE...MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
LOW BECOMES NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED BUT STILL RESULTS IN A
SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT FOR CYCLOGENESIS TO OCCUR. THE LOW AT THE
SURFACE SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND GRADUALLY INTENSIFIES WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

WITH COLD POOL ALOFT...RAIN WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS THE
REGION...ALTHOUGH INITIALLY IT LOOKS TO BE VERY LIGHT...PICKING UP
IN INTENSITY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A GUSTY
NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

RAIN MAY BECOME INTERMITTENT AT TIMES WITH DRY INTERVALS. MODELS
ARE HAVING DIFFICULTY PINPOINTING WHERE THE MORE CONSISTENT RAIN
WILL OCCUR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STACKED LOW EAST OF LONG ISLAND THU MORNING WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT
N/NE UP INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ADDITIONAL
SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL THEN FEED INTO THE MEAN TROUGH OVER EASTERN
NOAM SENDING A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION SAT NIGHT.
THEREAFTER... THERE ARE SIGNS THAT A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL
ENSUE WITH THE FORECAST FOR A NEUTRAL NAO AND PNA.

RAIN WILL LINGER ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE COASTAL LOW THU INTO THU
NIGHT BEFORE CONDITIONS DRY OUT. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER
WITH THE CLEARING WITH CLOUD COVER POSSIBLY REMAINING THROUGH SAT.
HOWEVER...HAVE AIRED MORE OPTIMISTICALLY WITH CLEARING LATE FRI INTO
FRI NIGHT. AS FOR THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SAT NIGHT...HAVE
MAINTAINED A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS DO HAVE SOME
LIGHT QPF. PREFER TO SEE MORE RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY BEFORE ADDING
ANY SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FROM SUN
NIGHT INTO MON...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
MIDWEST ON TUE.

THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...GUSTY W-NW WINDS WILL PREVAIL WITH THE
STRONGEST GUSTS LOOKING TO BE ON SUN BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

TEMPS WILL MODERATE FROM BELOW NORMAL ON THU WITH THE RAIN AND CLOUD
COVER TO ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A WARM RIDGE BUILDS IN
ALOFT AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE REMAINS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.

MAINLY VFR...WITH A FEW POCKETS OF MVFR EARLY OVERNIGHT. THEN
MVFR DEVELOPS THROUGHOUT LATE OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. SMALL CHANCE OF POCKETS OF IFR EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH AREA OF -RA MOVING THROUGH MAINLY
WESTERN/CITY TERMINALS FROM AROUND 8 TO 14/15Z. CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION
AND OCCURRENCE OF ANY IFR CONDITIONS TO LOW TO PLACE IN ANY TAF.

PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY...AFTER AFOREMENTIONED -RA THROUGH
14/15Z...WILL BE RATHER SPOTTY. IT WILL NOT BE RAINING
CONTINUOUSLY...AND PROBABLY WILL NOT RAIN AT LEAST HALF THE TIME
IN ANY GIVEN HOUR...SO WENT WITH VCSH FOR NOW. WILL REFINE LATER
WHEN TIMING OF PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE APPARENT.

WINDS BECOME NE-NNE THROUGHOUT OVERNIGHT...INCREASE TO AROUND 10KT
LATE TONIGHT...THEN BECOME GUSTY WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO
20-25KT BY MID MORNING AT ALL BUT KSWF...WHERE THE GUSTS SHOULD
HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN
SHRA. N-NW WINDS G25-30KT LIKELY.
.FRIIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...MOST LIKELY VFR...WITH LOW CHANCE SPOTTY
MVFR. NW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR. NW-W WINDS G25-30KT POSSIBLE.
.SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. NW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS LIGHT AND FROM THE E-SE WITH SUB SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT. WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT PRESENT WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
SOUTH OF THE WATERS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ON WED THROUGH
WED NIGHT WITH LOW FURTHER DEEPENING. SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY BY
WED AFTERNOON ON ALL WATERS. SEAS INCREASE TO 5 TO 6 FT ON THE
COASTAL OCEAN WATERS WED AND WED NIGHT. THE HIGHER OCEAN SEAS
CONTINUE INTO THU. SCA FOR OCEAN WED THROUGH THU AND OTHER WATERS
WED AFTERNOON THROUGH WED NIGHT.

A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ON THE OCEAN
WATERS AS LOW PRESSURE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND THU LIFTS SLOWLY NE AND
UP INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THIS WEEKEND. AT THE SAME
TIME...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY WORK EAST AND INTO THE WATERS BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GUSTY W-NW FLOW. MARGINAL
SCA GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE SOUND...HARBOR...AND SURROUNDING BAYS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FEW SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH ON
AVERAGE THROUGH TONIGHT. RAIN INCREASES LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH AROUND 1/2 QPF FORECAST. LOCALIZED NUISANCE URBAN
OR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

PERIODS OF RAIN...BRIEFLY HEAVY IN SPOTS...COULD RESULT IN
LOCALIZED NUISANCE URBAN OR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING WED THROUGH
THU.

STORM TOTALS SHOULD AVERAGE BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES PER ANALYSIS OF
OPERATIONAL MODELS...AND SREF MEMBERS. THERE COULD BE SOME LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS. THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN SHOULD NOT RESULT IN ANY
SERIOUS LIFE THREATENING OR PROPERTY FLOODING ISSUES/CONCERNS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JM
NEAR TERM...JMC/JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...JM/DW
HYDROLOGY...JM/DW









000
FXUS61 KBOX 220143
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
943 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF WEDNESDAY WILL
TURN INTO A SOAKING RAIN LATER WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. SHOWERS WILL
LINGER FRIDAY AS THE STORM SLOWLY PULLS AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND.
MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

930 PM UPDATE...

CLUSTER OF HEAVY SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER OVER WESTERN
WORCESTER COUNTY HAS FINALLY DISSIPATED. THUS FLASH FLOOD WARNING
AND FLOOD ADVISORY HAVE BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. BIG DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN DUAL POL WHICH ESTIMATED A STORM TOTAL OF UP TO 5.9 INCHES
NEAR WARE...WHILE LEGACY MUCH LESS AT 2.9 INCHES. LEGACY MATCHES
UP BETTER WITH SURROUNDING RADARS AND IT PROBABLY MORE ACCURATE
THAN THE DUAL POL GIVEN THE LOW FREEZING LEVEL THIS EVENING /7
KFT/.

AS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW OVER WESTERN PA WITH
MULTIPLE SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND THIS LARGE CIRCULATION. THIS
WILL TRANSLATE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. 00Z UPSTREAM SOUNDING
AT OKX LONG ISLAND INDICATES A VERY DEEP LAYER OF MOIST ADIABATIC
LAPSE RATES. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE RISK OF AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM WITH HEAVY RAIN OVERNIGHT. PREVIOUS FORECAST CAPTURES
THESE NICELY SO NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

***A SOAKING RAIN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY WITH THE
  HEAVIEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS***

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY...AS MOIST ONSHORE
NORTHEAST FLOW INCREASES. THE WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN WILL WAIT
UNTIL LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND PARTICULARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE SOAKING RAIN WILL DEVELOP AS LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED
CLOSED MID LEVEL CENTERS LIFTS NORTHEAST.  A STRONG EASTERLY LOW
LEVEL JET OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND
STRONG LIFT FOR A WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN EVENT.  THE CORE OF THE
STRONGEST LOW LEVEL JET WILL SETUP ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST
ZONES...WHICH IS WHERE WE EXPECT THE HEAVIEST RAIN.  OVERALL...
EXPECT A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS MOST OF OUR REGION
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. THE EXCEPTION MIGHT BE OUR FAR NORTHEAST
ZONES...WHERE 2 TO 3 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS SEEM REASONABLE.  THERE
IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF SOME 4 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN OUR FAR
NORTHEAST ZONES...MAINLY IN ESSEX COUNTY.  IF THIS WERE TO
MATERIALIZE...WE MIGHT HAVE SOME FLOODING ISSUES DEPENDING ON HOW
FAST IT FALLS.  HOWEVER...SINCE ITS A LOW PROBABILITY AND A 3RD AND
4TH PERIOD EVENT DID NOT ISSUE ANY FLOOD HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THINGS CLOSELY...ESPECIALLY IF MODEL TRENDS
SLIDE THE AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN CURRENTLY
INDICATED.  REGARDLESS...EXPECT TYPICAL NUISANCE POOR DRAINAGE
STREET FLOODING ISSUES.

FINALLY...WE DID NOTE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY LATE WED INTO WED
NIGHT.  INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST...BUT DO
NOT EXPECT ANYTHING WIDESPREAD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

* LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL BRING RAIN THU
* LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON FRI
* MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER THIS WEEKEND

OVERALL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES WITH A COUPLE OF FEATURES AS WELL AS
SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MESOSCALE DETAILS BUT THOSE ARE TO BE
EXPECTED.  THE MAIN WEATHER STORY WILL BE THE LONG DURATION COASTAL
STORM EARLY IN THE PERIOD.  AFTER THE COASTAL STORM MOVES AWAY FROM
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...THE WEATHER DRIES OUT AND BECOMES MORE
SEASONABLE.  UPPER LEVEL FLOW FLATTENS OUT LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MORE ZONAL FLOW EXPECTED.

THURSDAY...EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN TO CONTINUE AS A COASTAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES UP THE COAST TO MAINE.  AN ADDITIONAL
HALF TO INCH AND A HALF OF RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF
THE AREA THURSDAY.  AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
AND THEN THE MARITIMES...EXPECT HIGHEST AMOUNTS TO OCCUR ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE EAST COAST OF MASSACHUSETTS...PARTICULARLY ON CAPE COD AND
CAPE ANN WHERE RAIN WILL LAST THE LONGEST.  WITH THE HIGHER PWATS
AND LOW LEVEL JET STRONGEST ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...EXPECT THE
HEAVIEST RAIN AND THE STRONGEST WINDS TO OCCUR THERE.  THE ONE
EXCEPTION COULD BE ALONG CAPE ANN WHERE THERE MAY BE SOME STRONG
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OFF THE OCEAN.  COOL...ONSHORE FLOW AND OVERCAST
SKIES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S DURING THE DAY
AND IN THE 50S OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY...COULD SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP
INTO THE MARITIMES BUT WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BRINGING
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION.  OVERALL EXPECT DRIER WEATHER
AND A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AS THE DAY GOES ON.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE
NORTHEAST BUT HERE IS WHERE WE SEE SOME DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE
ECMWF AND THE GFS.  THE ECMWF HAS A STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER
TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WHILE THE GFS HAS A MORE NEUTRAL
UPPER TROUGH.  IN BOTH MODELS LOW PRESSURE IN QUEBEC WILL PULL A
COLD FRONT THROUGH AT LEAST A PORTION OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THE
GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE FRONT AND HAS MORE MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH IT...RESULTING IN A GREATER CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH
THE FRONT.  EXPECTING DRY SEASONABLE WEATHER SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND THEN SLIDES
SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
QUEBEC MAY BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.  ANOTHER CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE
WITH THIS FRONT BUT PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

930 PM UPDATE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM 00Z TAFS. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

=================================================================

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  CONDITIONS GRADUALLY WILL LOWER TO
MVFR FROM EAST TO WEST TONIGHT.  WE THEN EXPECT FURTHER LOWERING TO
MAINLY IFR BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...BUT TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN.
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL EXPAND OVERNIGHT IN AREAS NORTH
OF THE MA TURNPIKE...BUT A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT
ANYWHERE.  PATCHY FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LOW
END MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.  AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN...SHOWERS
AND DRIZZLE WILL BE COMMON FOR THE FIRST PART OF WEDNESDAY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ZONES AND GRADUALLY EXPAND SOUTH.  WIDESPREAD MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED LATER WED INTO WED NIGHT.  NORTHEAST WIND
GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS DEVELOP ON THE COAST WED NIGHT...BUT NEAR 30
KNOT GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST MA COAST.

KBOS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS.

KBDL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN RAIN AND
POSSIBLY SOME ISOLATED THUNDER.  NE WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 TO 25 KTS
ACROSS S NH AND NE MA.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO VFR EXPECTED IN
CLEARING SKIES.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.  LOW PROBABILITY OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

***HIGH SEAS AND GALE FORCE NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
  NIGHT ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST ATLANTIC WATERS***

945 PM UPDATE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. NE WINDS WILL INCREASE
TOWARD MORNING ACROSS THE CAPE ANN WATERS WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KT
POSSIBLE. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

======================================================================

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST LATER TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.  WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE WATERS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS...EXCEPT FOR THE NORTHEAST WATERS WHERE
GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LOW
PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AS AN INTENSIFYING EASTERLY LOW LEVEL
JET DEVELOPS.  AT THE SURFACE...SHOULD SEE NORTHEAST SCA WIND GUSTS
OVERSPREAD MOST OF OUR WATERS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.  THE CORE OF
THE STRONGEST JET WILL BE NORTH OUR WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  STILL
THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF NORTHEAST 35 KNOT WIND GUSTS ACROSS
OUT FAR NORTHEAST WATERS.  THEREFORE...HAVE ISSUED A GALE WATCH FOR
THIS LOCATION.  ALSO...SEAS MAY BUILD TO AROUND 15 FEET IN OUR
EXTREME NORTHEAST ATLANTIC WATERS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. 10 TO 15 FOOT SEAS ON THE NORTHEASTERN
WATERS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON...5 TO 10 FOOT SEAS ELSEWHERE WILL DO THE SAME.
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 20 TO 25 KTS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE
DAY AS WELL.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR MOST
WATERS FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE DAY.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER.
WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE SLOWLY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  SEAS AND WINDS INCREASE GRADUALLY ON
THE SOUTHERN WATERS...BRIEFLY REACHING SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
FORTUNATELY ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES ARE RATHER LOW OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS AND THE CORE OF THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE TO OUR NORTH.
THEREFORE...THE RISK OF EVEN MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS QUITE LOW.
HOWEVER...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MINOR BEACH EROSION ALONG
THE SALISBURY AND PLUM ISLAND COASTS DURING THE HIGH TIDES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY.  NO COASTAL FLOOD HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED
THOUGH FOR THIS UPCOMING EVENT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ231>235-237.
     GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
     FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ251-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/RLG
NEAR TERM...FRANK/NOCERA/RLG
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...FRANK/RLG
MARINE...FRANK/RLG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KALY 220122
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
922 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND THEN NORTHEAST TO THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY. A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN AND COOL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FROM
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST RAIN EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 920 PM EDT...TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD ARE FOCUSING BANDS OF SHOWERS WHICH ARE MOVING FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FA AS INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT
FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST IS ALLOWING THE SHOWERS TO REDEVELOP
ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SE CATSKILL REGION. THESE SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE NORTHWARD THROUGH THIS EVENING...SO
SOME RAIN SHOULD REACH MUCH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...BERKSHIRES
AND SOUTHERN VT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING.

SHOWERS MAY DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE LATE TONIGHT...ESP FOR
AREAS E OF THE HUDSON RIVER...AS THE BULK OF FORCING SHIFTS TO OUR
S AND W ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW...AND
ALSO OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST IN THE REGION OF STRENGTHENING WARM
ADVECTION. HAVE KEPT CHC POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
TONIGHT...EXPECTING THE GENERAL AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS TO
DECREASE...ALTHOUGH AGAIN...MAY REMAIN A BIT GREATER ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY AND EASTERN CATSKILLS.

SPOTTY DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY ALSO DEVELOP BETWEEN THE SHOWERS AS LOW
LEVELS MOISTEN...AND INTERACT WITH THE TERRAIN.

MIN TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY FALL INTO THE 40S IN MOST AREAS BY
DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY...AT THIS TIME...BARRING ANY SMALLER...UNRESOLVED
SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEVELOPING
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR SOUTH...IT APPEARS THAT LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF FORCING WILL BE PRESENT OVER OUR REGION FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST
HALF OF THE DAY. THEREFORE...HAVE INDICATED ONLY CHC POPS FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...AS MID/UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT
DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY...AND
PIVOTS BACK WESTWARD...THE AREAL COVERAGE OF RAIN AND/OR SHOWERS
SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON...ESP ACROSS SOUTHERN VT AND
THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND NW MA. FURTHER S AND W...AREAL
COVERAGE MAY ONCE AGAIN REMAIN SPOTTY INTO THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS
EVEN A POSSIBILITY OF SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOPING IN SOME
AREAS DURING THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE MOISTURE DEEPENS
AGAIN FROM NE TO SW LATE IN THE DAY. ASSUMING RAINFALL REMAINS
FAIRLY LIMITED...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 50S IN MOST
AREAS...EXCEPT FOR UPPER 40S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VT...AND THE EASTERN CATSKILLS.

WED NT-THU...THIS APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR A WIDESPREAD PERIOD OF
RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MODERATE TO PERHAPS LOCALLY HVY
POCKETS OF RAIN...ESP ACROSS HIGHER...E-FACING SLOPES ACROSS
SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA...THE SE ADIRONDACKS...AND ALSO THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS. THE BULK OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE
COMBINATION OF AN E/NE LOW LEVEL JET OF 40-50 KT TRANSLATING
WESTWARD TOWARD THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
VT/WESTERN MA...ALONG WITH DEEP LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING AROUND THE W/NW PERIPHERY OF THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL
LOW...SHOULD FAVOR SOME BANDS OF MOD-HVY RAINFALL PIVOTING
WEST...THEN SW ACROSS THE REGION LATE WED NT INTO AT LEAST THU AM.
AGAIN...AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE COMBINATION OF UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE SHOULD FAVOR
THE GREATEST RAINFALL AMTS FROM SOUTHERN VT INTO SE
ADIRONDACKS...WHERE UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL COULD OCCUR. A
SECONDARY MAX OF AROUND 2 INCHES APPEARS POSSIBLE IN THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS DUE TO UPSLOPE...WHILE A MIN SHOULD OCCUR WITHIN THE
IMMEDIATE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...WITH GENERALLY 0.5-1.5 INCHES
OCCURRING. WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE GUSTY FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST
AS WELL...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING OR EXCEEDING 35 MPH
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS...BERKSHIRES
AND TACONICS...AND POSSIBLY WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY DUE TO SOME FUNNELING EFFECTS...WHERE SOME GUSTS OF
30-35 MPH COULD ALSO OCCUR. WED NT MIN TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY FALL
INTO THE 40S IN MOST AREAS...AND MAXES MAY REMAIN BELOW 50 IN
MANY AREAS ON THU DUE TO CLOUDS...RAIN AND A PERSISTENT NORTH WIND
FUNNELING COOL AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR SOUTHWARD...WHILE WET BULB
EFFECTS OCCUR WITH THE FALLING RAINFALL. IF THE RAIN DECREASES IN
AREAL COVERAGE IN THE AFTERNOON...SLIGHTLY WARMER MAX TEMPS WOULD
THEN BE POSSIBLE.

THU NT...SOME ADDITIONAL BANDS OF SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE TO ROTATE
SOUTHWEST/SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION...ESP EARLY AND FOR AREAS NEAR
AND E OF THE HUDSON RIVER. TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER 40S IN
MOST AREAS...WITH SOME UPPER 30S POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
WITHIN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND CATSKILLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT UNSETTLED AND ENDS WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS.

ON FRIDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED IN THE
GULF OF MAINE WITH A CYCLONIC FLOW BACK ACRS THE FA. THIS WILL KEEP
CLOUDS ACRS THE REGION WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY ACRS THE NRN
TWO THIRDS OF THE FA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS ON FRIDAY
TO BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER
30S TO MID 40S.

FOR SATURDAY...DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH A FEW LINGER
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE NOSING INTO THE FA FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY. EXPECT HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY AT THIS POINT LOOK MAINLY DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE FA. HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 60 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTHWEST TO THE
LOWER 40S SOUTHEAST. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE A MILDER DAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE CAROLINAS AND A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 00Z THURSDAY. MAINLY ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS ON THE RADAR THIS EVENING SO VCSH/-SHRA IN
FORECAST AT THE TAF SITES. EXPECT INCREASING COVERAGE LATE TONIGHT
AND THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING AS THE MAIN UPPER ENERGY TRACKS
CLOSER TO THE REGION AND THE COASTAL LOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP.

WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KTS TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PDS RA.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. OCNL SHRA...RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND THEN NORTHEAST TO THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY. A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN AND COOL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FROM
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST RAIN EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK...EVEN THOUGH WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND
WET AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF SOUTH AND EAST THE REGION.
INTERMITTENT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FROM TODAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH
THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL EXPECTED FOR LATE WED INTO
EARLY THU.

WITH THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR...ESP LATE WED INTO EARLY THU. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO
TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA
DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL
WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD OF A FEW DAYS...SO NO WIDESPREAD
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS
THAT THE GREATEST AMTS...UP TO 2 INCHES...WOULD BE FAVORED ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...ESP SOUTHERN VT...AND
POSSIBLY THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...WITH LESS AMTS...GENERALLY 0.5 TO
1.5 INCHES...OCCURRING WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DUE TO
DOWNSLOPING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/GJM
NEAR TERM...KL/11
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM








000
FXUS61 KOKX 212353
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
753 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE DELMARVA AREA...AND THEN WILL
MEANDER SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE LOW THEN TRACKS
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES LATE THIS WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES SATURDAY...THEN
CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
GRIDS UPDATED TO ADJUST POPS ACROSS ERN LI WHERE WEAK TSTM COMPLEX
IS ROLLING THRU. TEMPS AND OTHER HOURLY FIELDS ADJUSTED. FCST
FOR SCT PCPN STILL LOOKS ON TRACK...HOWEVER SLOW MOVEMENT OF
ACTIVITY WILL RESULT IN POCKETS OF LINGERING PCPN...PARTICULARLY
OVER NJ AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY.

DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES TONIGHT AND MOVES TO JUST
WEST OF THE REGION WITH MID LEVEL CUTOFF LOW MOVING TOWARDS THE
DELMARVA. LOW AT THE SURFACE NEAR THE DELMARVA MOVES EAST AND
OFFSHORE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

BASICALLY...SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION INTO THIS
EVENING WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION DUE TO STEEP LAPSE RATES. COULD
SEE SOME SMALL HAIL WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM. WINDS ARE
STILL LIGHT OVERALL BUT BECOME MORE NORTHERLY LATE TONIGHT. LATE
TONIGHT...EXPECTING AN OVERALL INCREASE IN SHOWER COVERAGE WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS STILL A POSSIBILITY AS MUCAPE VALUES STILL
COULD REACH 100-200 J/KG...CLOSER TO THE COAST.

LOWS WERE TAKEN FROM MAV GUIDANCE...WHICH IS RELATIVELY WARMER
THAN OTHER GUIDANCE...MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
LOW BECOMES NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED BUT STILL RESULTS IN A
SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT FOR CYCLOGENESIS TO OCCUR. THE LOW AT THE
SURFACE SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND GRADUALLY INTENSIFIES WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

WITH COLD POOL ALOFT...RAIN WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS THE
REGION...ALTHOUGH INITIALLY IT LOOKS TO BE VERY LIGHT...PICKING UP
IN INTENSITY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A GUSTY
NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

RAIN MAY BECOME INTERMITTENT AT TIMES WITH DRY INTERVALS. MODELS
ARE HAVING DIFFICULTY PINPOINTING WHERE THE MORE CONSISTENT RAIN
WILL OCCUR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STACKED LOW EAST OF LONG ISLAND THU MORNING WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT
N/NE UP INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ADDITIONAL
SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL THEN FEED INTO THE MEAN TROUGH OVER EASTERN
NOAM SENDING A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION SAT NIGHT.
THEREAFTER... THERE ARE SIGNS THAT A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL
ENSUE WITH THE FORECAST FOR A NEUTRAL NAO AND PNA.

RAIN WILL LINGER ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE COASTAL LOW THU INTO THU
NIGHT BEFORE CONDITIONS DRY OUT. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER
WITH THE CLEARING WITH CLOUD COVER POSSIBLY REMAINING THROUGH SAT.
HOWEVER...HAVE AIRED MORE OPTIMISTICALLY WITH CLEARING LATE FRI INTO
FRI NIGHT. AS FOR THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SAT NIGHT...HAVE
MAINTAINED A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS DO HAVE SOME
LIGHT QPF. PREFER TO SEE MORE RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY BEFORE ADDING
ANY SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FROM SUN
NIGHT INTO MON...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
MIDWEST ON TUE.

THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...GUSTY W-NW WINDS WILL PREVAIL WITH THE
STRONGEST GUSTS LOOKING TO BE ON SUN BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

TEMPS WILL MODERATE FROM BELOW NORMAL ON THU WITH THE RAIN AND CLOUD
COVER TO ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A WARM RIDGE BUILDS IN
ALOFT AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE REMAINS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.

MAINLY VFR...WITH A FEW POCKETS OF MVFR THIS EVENING. THEN MVFR
DEVELOPS THROUGHOUT OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE TAF PERIOD. SMALL CHANCE OF POCKETS OF IFR LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING - CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION AND
OCCURRENCE TO LOW TO PLACE IN ANY TAF. ALSO CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLD
TSTM OVERNIGHT...BUT ONCE AGAIN CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE AT ANY
GIVEN LOCATION IS TOO LOW TO REFLECT IN TAFS. PRECIPITATION
TOMORROW WILL BE RATHER SPOTTY...WILL NOT BE RAINING
CONTINUOUSLY...AND PROBABLY WILL NOT RAIN AT LEAST HALF THE TIME
IN ANY GIVEN HOUR...SO WENT WITH VCSH FOR NOW. WILL REFINE LATER
WHEN TIMING OF PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE APPARENT.

WINDS BECOME NE THROUGHOUT TONIGHT...INCREASE TO AROUND 10KT LATE
TONIGHT...THEN BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE NE-NNE WEDNESDAY WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20-25KT BY MID MORNING AT ALL BUT KSWF...WHERE THE
GUSTS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTERNOON.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OFF ONSET OF MVFR AND CHANGES IN WIND
SPEED/DIRECTION/GUSTS COULD BE OFF +/- 1-3 HOURS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OFF ONSET OF MVFR AND CHANGES IN WIND
SPEED/DIRECTION/GUSTS COULD BE OFF +/- 1-3 HOURS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OFF ONSET OF MVFR AND CHANGES IN WIND
SPEED/DIRECTION/GUSTS COULD BE OFF +/- 1-3 HOURS. VCTS THROUGH 2Z.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OFF ONSET OF MVFR AND CHANGES IN WIND
SPEED/DIRECTION/GUSTS COULD BE OFF +/- 1-3 HOURS. VCTS THROUGH 2Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OFF ONSET OF MVFR AND CHANGES IN WIND
SPEED/DIRECTION/GUSTS COULD BE OFF +/- 1-3 HOURS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OFF ONSET OF MVFR AND CHANGES IN WIND
SPEED/DIRECTION/GUSTS COULD BE OFF +/- 1-3 HOURS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN
SHRA. N-NW WINDS G25-30KT LIKELY.
.FRIIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...MOST LIKELY VFR...WITH LOW CHANCE SPOTTY
MVFR. NW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR. NW-W WINDS G25-30KT POSSIBLE.
.SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. NW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS LIGHT AND FROM THE E-SE WITH SUB SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT. WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT PRESENT WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
SOUTH OF THE WATERS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ON WED THROUGH
WED NIGHT WITH LOW FURTHER DEEPENING. SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY BY
WED AFTERNOON ON ALL WATERS. SEAS INCREASE TO 5 TO 6 FT ON THE
COASTAL OCEAN WATERS WED AND WED NIGHT. THE HIGHER OCEAN SEAS
CONTINUE INTO THU. SCA FOR OCEAN WED THROUGH THU AND OTHER WATERS
WED AFTERNOON THROUGH WED NIGHT.

A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ON THE OCEAN
WATERS AS LOW PRESSURE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND THU LIFTS SLOWLY NE AND
UP INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THIS WEEKEND. AT THE SAME
TIME...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY WORK EAST AND INTO THE WATERS BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GUSTY W-NW FLOW. MARGINAL
SCA GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE SOUND...HARBOR...AND SURROUNDING BAYS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FEW SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM...WILL RESULT IN LESS
THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH ON AVERAGE THROUGH TONIGHT. RAIN
INCREASES LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH AROUND 1/2 QPF
FORECAST. LOCALIZED NUISANCE URBAN OR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE.

PERIODS OF RAIN...BRIEFLY HEAVY IN SPOTS...COULD RESULT IN
LOCALIZED NUISANCE URBAN OR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING WED THROUGH
THU.

STORM TOTALS SHOULD AVERAGE BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES PER ANALYSIS OF
OPERATIONAL MODELS...AND SREF MEMBERS. THERE COULD BE SOME LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS. THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN SHOULD NOT RESULT IN ANY
SERIOUS LIFE THREATENING OR PROPERTY FLOODING ISSUES/CONCERNS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JM
NEAR TERM...JMC/JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...JM/DW
HYDROLOGY...JM/DW







000
FXUS61 KALY 212324
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
724 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND THEN NORTHEAST TO THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY. A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN AND COOL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FROM
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST RAIN EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 6 PM EDT...ONE COMPACT SHORTWAVE HAS LIFTED NORTH OF THE
REGION...ALLOWING FOR A BRIEF LULL IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY.
HOWEVER...INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST IS
ALLOWING SHOWERS TO REDEVELOP ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SE
CATSKILL REGION. THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE NORTHWARD
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...SO SOME RAIN SHOULD REDEVELOP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL REGION...BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN VT
THROUGH THE EVENING COMMUTE.

WE WILL ALSO HAVE TO CLOSELY MONITOR CONVECTION CURRENTLY DEVELOPING
ACROSS NORTHERN NJ AND EXTREME SE NYS. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT
THE REMNANTS OF THIS COULD REACH PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY/LITCHFIELD CO...AND THE SE CATSKILLS LATER THIS EVENING AS
WELL.

SHOWERS MAY DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE TOWARDS MIDNIGHT INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESP FOR AREAS E OF THE HUDSON RIVER...AS THE
BULK OF FORCING SHIFTS TO OUR S AND W ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW...AND ALSO OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST IN THE REGION OF STRENGTHENING WARM ADVECTION. HAVE KEPT CHC
POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT...EXPECTING THE GENERAL AREAL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS TO DECREASE...ALTHOUGH AGAIN...MAY REMAIN A
BIT GREATER ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY AND
EASTERN CATSKILLS.

SPOTTY DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY ALSO DEVELOP BETWEEN THE SHOWERS AS LOW
LEVELS MOISTEN...AND INTERACT WITH THE TERRAIN.

MIN TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY FALL INTO THE 40S IN MOST AREAS BY
DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY...AT THIS TIME...BARRING ANY SMALLER...UNRESOLVED
SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEVELOPING
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR SOUTH...IT APPEARS THAT LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF FORCING WILL BE PRESENT OVER OUR REGION FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST
HALF OF THE DAY. THEREFORE...HAVE INDICATED ONLY CHC POPS FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...AS MID/UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT
DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY...AND
PIVOTS BACK WESTWARD...THE AREAL COVERAGE OF RAIN AND/OR SHOWERS
SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON...ESP ACROSS SOUTHERN VT AND
THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND NW MA. FURTHER S AND W...AREAL
COVERAGE MAY ONCE AGAIN REMAIN SPOTTY INTO THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS
EVEN A POSSIBILITY OF SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOPING IN SOME
AREAS DURING THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE MOISTURE DEEPENS
AGAIN FROM NE TO SW LATE IN THE DAY. ASSUMING RAINFALL REMAINS
FAIRLY LIMITED...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 50S IN MOST
AREAS...EXCEPT FOR UPPER 40S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VT...AND THE EASTERN CATSKILLS.

WED NT-THU...THIS APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR A WIDESPREAD PERIOD OF
RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MODERATE TO PERHAPS LOCALLY HVY
POCKETS OF RAIN...ESP ACROSS HIGHER...E-FACING SLOPES ACROSS
SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA...THE SE ADIRONDACKS...AND ALSO THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS. THE BULK OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE
COMBINATION OF AN E/NE LOW LEVEL JET OF 40-50 KT TRANSLATING
WESTWARD TOWARD THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
VT/WESTERN MA...ALONG WITH DEEP LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING AROUND THE W/NW PERIPHERY OF THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL
LOW...SHOULD FAVOR SOME BANDS OF MOD-HVY RAINFALL PIVOTING
WEST...THEN SW ACROSS THE REGION LATE WED NT INTO AT LEAST THU AM.
AGAIN...AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE COMBINATION OF UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE SHOULD FAVOR
THE GREATEST RAINFALL AMTS FROM SOUTHERN VT INTO SE
ADIRONDACKS...WHERE UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL COULD OCCUR. A
SECONDARY MAX OF AROUND 2 INCHES APPEARS POSSIBLE IN THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS DUE TO UPSLOPE...WHILE A MIN SHOULD OCCUR WITHIN THE
IMMEDIATE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...WITH GENERALLY 0.5-1.5 INCHES
OCCURRING. WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE GUSTY FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST
AS WELL...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING OR EXCEEDING 35 MPH
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS...BERKSHIRES
AND TACONICS...AND POSSIBLY WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY DUE TO SOME FUNNELING EFFECTS...WHERE SOME GUSTS OF
30-35 MPH COULD ALSO OCCUR. WED NT MIN TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY FALL
INTO THE 40S IN MOST AREAS...AND MAXES MAY REMAIN BELOW 50 IN
MANY AREAS ON THU DUE TO CLOUDS...RAIN AND A PERSISTENT NORTH WIND
FUNNELING COOL AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR SOUTHWARD...WHILE WET BULB
EFFECTS OCCUR WITH THE FALLING RAINFALL. IF THE RAIN DECREASES IN
AREAL COVERAGE IN THE AFTERNOON...SLIGHTLY WARMER MAX TEMPS WOULD
THEN BE POSSIBLE.

THU NT...SOME ADDITIONAL BANDS OF SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE TO ROTATE
SOUTHWEST/SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION...ESP EARLY AND FOR AREAS NEAR
AND E OF THE HUDSON RIVER. TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER 40S IN
MOST AREAS...WITH SOME UPPER 30S POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
WITHIN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND CATSKILLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT UNSETTLED AND ENDS WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS.

ON FRIDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED IN THE
GULF OF MAINE WITH A CYCLONIC FLOW BACK ACRS THE FA. THIS WILL KEEP
CLOUDS ACRS THE REGION WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY ACRS THE NRN
TWO THIRDS OF THE FA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS ON FRIDAY
TO BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER
30S TO MID 40S.

FOR SATURDAY...DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH A FEW LINGER
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE NOSING INTO THE FA FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY. EXPECT HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY AT THIS POINT LOOK MAINLY DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE FA. HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 60 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTHWEST TO THE
LOWER 40S SOUTHEAST. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE A MILDER DAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE CAROLINAS AND A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 00Z THURSDAY. MAINLY ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS ON THE RADAR THIS EVENING SO VCSH/-SHRA IN
FORECAST AT THE TAF SITES. EXPECT INCREASING COVERAGE LATE TONIGHT
AND THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING AS THE MAIN UPPER ENERGY TRACKS
CLOSER TO THE REGION AND THE COASTAL LOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP.

WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KTS TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PDS RA.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. OCNL SHRA...RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND THEN NORTHEAST TO THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY. A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN AND COOL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FROM
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST RAIN EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK...EVEN THOUGH WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND
WET AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF SOUTH AND EAST THE REGION.
INTERMITTENT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FROM TODAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH
THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL EXPECTED FOR LATE WED INTO
EARLY THU.

WITH THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR...ESP LATE WED INTO EARLY THU. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO
TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA
DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL
WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD OF A FEW DAYS...SO NO WIDESPREAD
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS
THAT THE GREATEST AMTS...UP TO 2 INCHES...WOULD BE FAVORED ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...ESP SOUTHERN VT...AND
POSSIBLY THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...WITH LESS AMTS...GENERALLY 0.5 TO
1.5 INCHES...OCCURRING WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DUE TO
DOWNSLOPING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/GJM
NEAR TERM...KL/11
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM








000
FXUS61 KALY 212324
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
724 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND THEN NORTHEAST TO THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY. A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN AND COOL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FROM
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST RAIN EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 6 PM EDT...ONE COMPACT SHORTWAVE HAS LIFTED NORTH OF THE
REGION...ALLOWING FOR A BRIEF LULL IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY.
HOWEVER...INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST IS
ALLOWING SHOWERS TO REDEVELOP ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SE
CATSKILL REGION. THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE NORTHWARD
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...SO SOME RAIN SHOULD REDEVELOP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL REGION...BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN VT
THROUGH THE EVENING COMMUTE.

WE WILL ALSO HAVE TO CLOSELY MONITOR CONVECTION CURRENTLY DEVELOPING
ACROSS NORTHERN NJ AND EXTREME SE NYS. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT
THE REMNANTS OF THIS COULD REACH PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY/LITCHFIELD CO...AND THE SE CATSKILLS LATER THIS EVENING AS
WELL.

SHOWERS MAY DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE TOWARDS MIDNIGHT INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESP FOR AREAS E OF THE HUDSON RIVER...AS THE
BULK OF FORCING SHIFTS TO OUR S AND W ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW...AND ALSO OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST IN THE REGION OF STRENGTHENING WARM ADVECTION. HAVE KEPT CHC
POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT...EXPECTING THE GENERAL AREAL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS TO DECREASE...ALTHOUGH AGAIN...MAY REMAIN A
BIT GREATER ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY AND
EASTERN CATSKILLS.

SPOTTY DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY ALSO DEVELOP BETWEEN THE SHOWERS AS LOW
LEVELS MOISTEN...AND INTERACT WITH THE TERRAIN.

MIN TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY FALL INTO THE 40S IN MOST AREAS BY
DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY...AT THIS TIME...BARRING ANY SMALLER...UNRESOLVED
SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEVELOPING
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR SOUTH...IT APPEARS THAT LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF FORCING WILL BE PRESENT OVER OUR REGION FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST
HALF OF THE DAY. THEREFORE...HAVE INDICATED ONLY CHC POPS FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...AS MID/UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT
DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY...AND
PIVOTS BACK WESTWARD...THE AREAL COVERAGE OF RAIN AND/OR SHOWERS
SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON...ESP ACROSS SOUTHERN VT AND
THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND NW MA. FURTHER S AND W...AREAL
COVERAGE MAY ONCE AGAIN REMAIN SPOTTY INTO THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS
EVEN A POSSIBILITY OF SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOPING IN SOME
AREAS DURING THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE MOISTURE DEEPENS
AGAIN FROM NE TO SW LATE IN THE DAY. ASSUMING RAINFALL REMAINS
FAIRLY LIMITED...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 50S IN MOST
AREAS...EXCEPT FOR UPPER 40S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VT...AND THE EASTERN CATSKILLS.

WED NT-THU...THIS APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR A WIDESPREAD PERIOD OF
RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MODERATE TO PERHAPS LOCALLY HVY
POCKETS OF RAIN...ESP ACROSS HIGHER...E-FACING SLOPES ACROSS
SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA...THE SE ADIRONDACKS...AND ALSO THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS. THE BULK OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE
COMBINATION OF AN E/NE LOW LEVEL JET OF 40-50 KT TRANSLATING
WESTWARD TOWARD THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
VT/WESTERN MA...ALONG WITH DEEP LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING AROUND THE W/NW PERIPHERY OF THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL
LOW...SHOULD FAVOR SOME BANDS OF MOD-HVY RAINFALL PIVOTING
WEST...THEN SW ACROSS THE REGION LATE WED NT INTO AT LEAST THU AM.
AGAIN...AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE COMBINATION OF UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE SHOULD FAVOR
THE GREATEST RAINFALL AMTS FROM SOUTHERN VT INTO SE
ADIRONDACKS...WHERE UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL COULD OCCUR. A
SECONDARY MAX OF AROUND 2 INCHES APPEARS POSSIBLE IN THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS DUE TO UPSLOPE...WHILE A MIN SHOULD OCCUR WITHIN THE
IMMEDIATE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...WITH GENERALLY 0.5-1.5 INCHES
OCCURRING. WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE GUSTY FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST
AS WELL...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING OR EXCEEDING 35 MPH
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS...BERKSHIRES
AND TACONICS...AND POSSIBLY WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY DUE TO SOME FUNNELING EFFECTS...WHERE SOME GUSTS OF
30-35 MPH COULD ALSO OCCUR. WED NT MIN TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY FALL
INTO THE 40S IN MOST AREAS...AND MAXES MAY REMAIN BELOW 50 IN
MANY AREAS ON THU DUE TO CLOUDS...RAIN AND A PERSISTENT NORTH WIND
FUNNELING COOL AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR SOUTHWARD...WHILE WET BULB
EFFECTS OCCUR WITH THE FALLING RAINFALL. IF THE RAIN DECREASES IN
AREAL COVERAGE IN THE AFTERNOON...SLIGHTLY WARMER MAX TEMPS WOULD
THEN BE POSSIBLE.

THU NT...SOME ADDITIONAL BANDS OF SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE TO ROTATE
SOUTHWEST/SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION...ESP EARLY AND FOR AREAS NEAR
AND E OF THE HUDSON RIVER. TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER 40S IN
MOST AREAS...WITH SOME UPPER 30S POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
WITHIN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND CATSKILLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT UNSETTLED AND ENDS WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS.

ON FRIDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED IN THE
GULF OF MAINE WITH A CYCLONIC FLOW BACK ACRS THE FA. THIS WILL KEEP
CLOUDS ACRS THE REGION WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY ACRS THE NRN
TWO THIRDS OF THE FA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS ON FRIDAY
TO BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER
30S TO MID 40S.

FOR SATURDAY...DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH A FEW LINGER
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE NOSING INTO THE FA FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY. EXPECT HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY AT THIS POINT LOOK MAINLY DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE FA. HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 60 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTHWEST TO THE
LOWER 40S SOUTHEAST. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE A MILDER DAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE CAROLINAS AND A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 00Z THURSDAY. MAINLY ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS ON THE RADAR THIS EVENING SO VCSH/-SHRA IN
FORECAST AT THE TAF SITES. EXPECT INCREASING COVERAGE LATE TONIGHT
AND THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING AS THE MAIN UPPER ENERGY TRACKS
CLOSER TO THE REGION AND THE COASTAL LOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP.

WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KTS TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PDS RA.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. OCNL SHRA...RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND THEN NORTHEAST TO THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY. A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN AND COOL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FROM
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST RAIN EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK...EVEN THOUGH WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND
WET AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF SOUTH AND EAST THE REGION.
INTERMITTENT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FROM TODAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH
THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL EXPECTED FOR LATE WED INTO
EARLY THU.

WITH THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR...ESP LATE WED INTO EARLY THU. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO
TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA
DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL
WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD OF A FEW DAYS...SO NO WIDESPREAD
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS
THAT THE GREATEST AMTS...UP TO 2 INCHES...WOULD BE FAVORED ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...ESP SOUTHERN VT...AND
POSSIBLY THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...WITH LESS AMTS...GENERALLY 0.5 TO
1.5 INCHES...OCCURRING WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DUE TO
DOWNSLOPING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/GJM
NEAR TERM...KL/11
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM








000
FXUS61 KBOX 212257
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
657 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF WEDNESDAY WILL
TURN INTO A SOAKING RAIN LATER WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. SHOWERS WILL
LINGER FRIDAY AS THE STORM SLOWLY PULLS AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND.
MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
7 PM UPDATE...ONE CLUSTER OF SHOWERS IS VERY NEARLY STATIONARY
OVER THE HAMPDEN/HAMPSHIRE/WORCESTER COUNTY BORDER. RADAR IS
ESTIMATING THAT THIS CLUSTER OF STORMS HAS DROPPED 3 TO 5 INCHES
OF RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF PALMER...WARE...AND WARREN. HOWEVER...NO
REPORTS HAVE BEEN RECEIVED BY THE OFFICE OF RAINFALL OR FLOODING
AT THIS POINT. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE REGION IS DRY WITH A
FEW SHOWERS OVER LONG ISLAND AND THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS.
OVERALL...THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FROM THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE
WITH SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME DRIZZLE EXPANDING ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
ZONES AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST LATER TONIGHT.

LOW TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S. WE MAY
ALSO SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
***A SOAKING RAIN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY WITH THE
  HEAVIEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS***

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY...AS MOIST ONSHORE
NORTHEAST FLOW INCREASES. THE WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN WILL WAIT
UNTIL LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND PARTICULARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE SOAKING RAIN WILL DEVELOP AS LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED
CLOSED MID LEVEL CENTERS LIFTS NORTHEAST.  A STRONG EASTERLY LOW
LEVEL JET OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND
STRONG LIFT FOR A WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN EVENT.  THE CORE OF THE
STRONGEST LOW LEVEL JET WILL SETUP ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST
ZONES...WHICH IS WHERE WE EXPECT THE HEAVIEST RAIN.  OVERALL...
EXPECT A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS MOST OF OUR REGION
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. THE EXCEPTION MIGHT BE OUR FAR NORTHEAST
ZONES...WHERE 2 TO 3 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS SEEM REASONABLE.  THERE
IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF SOME 4 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN OUR FAR
NORTHEAST ZONES...MAINLY IN ESSEX COUNTY.  IF THIS WERE TO
MATERIALIZE...WE MIGHT HAVE SOME FLOODING ISSUES DEPENDING ON HOW
FAST IT FALLS.  HOWEVER...SINCE ITS A LOW PROBABILITY AND A 3RD AND
4TH PERIOD EVENT DID NOT ISSUE ANY FLOOD HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THINGS CLOSELY...ESPECIALLY IF MODEL TRENDS
SLIDE THE AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN CURRENTLY
INDICATED.  REGARDLESS...EXPECT TYPICAL NUISANCE POOR DRAINAGE
STREET FLOODING ISSUES.

FINALLY...WE DID NOTE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY LATE WED INTO WED
NIGHT.  INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST...BUT DO
NOT EXPECT ANYTHING WIDESPREAD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
* LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL BRING RAIN THU
* LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON FRI
* MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER THIS WEEKEND

OVERALL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES WITH A COUPLE OF FEATURES AS WELL AS
SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MESOSCALE DETAILS BUT THOSE ARE TO BE
EXPECTED.  THE MAIN WEATHER STORY WILL BE THE LONG DURATION COASTAL
STORM EARLY IN THE PERIOD.  AFTER THE COASTAL STORM MOVES AWAY FROM
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...THE WEATHER DRIES OUT AND BECOMES MORE
SEASONABLE.  UPPER LEVEL FLOW FLATTENS OUT LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MORE ZONAL FLOW EXPECTED.

THURSDAY...EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN TO CONTINUE AS A COASTAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES UP THE COAST TO MAINE.  AN ADDITIONAL
HALF TO INCH AND A HALF OF RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF
THE AREA THURSDAY.  AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
AND THEN THE MARITIMES...EXPECT HIGHEST AMOUNTS TO OCCUR ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE EAST COAST OF MASSACHUSETTS...PARTICULARLY ON CAPE COD AND
CAPE ANN WHERE RAIN WILL LAST THE LONGEST.  WITH THE HIGHER PWATS
AND LOW LEVEL JET STRONGEST ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...EXPECT THE
HEAVIEST RAIN AND THE STRONGEST WINDS TO OCCUR THERE.  THE ONE
EXCEPTION COULD BE ALONG CAPE ANN WHERE THERE MAY BE SOME STRONG
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OFF THE OCEAN.  COOL...ONSHORE FLOW AND OVERCAST
SKIES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S DURING THE DAY
AND IN THE 50S OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY...COULD SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP
INTO THE MARITIMES BUT WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BRINGING
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION.  OVERALL EXPECT DRIER WEATHER
AND A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AS THE DAY GOES ON.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE
NORTHEAST BUT HERE IS WHERE WE SEE SOME DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE
ECMWF AND THE GFS.  THE ECMWF HAS A STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER
TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WHILE THE GFS HAS A MORE NEUTRAL
UPPER TROUGH.  IN BOTH MODELS LOW PRESSURE IN QUEBEC WILL PULL A
COLD FRONT THROUGH AT LEAST A PORTION OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THE
GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE FRONT AND HAS MORE MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH IT...RESULTING IN A GREATER CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH
THE FRONT.  EXPECTING DRY SEASONABLE WEATHER SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND THEN SLIDES
SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
QUEBEC MAY BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.  ANOTHER CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE
WITH THIS FRONT BUT PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  CONDITIONS GRADUALLY WILL LOWER TO
MVFR FROM EAST TO WEST TONIGHT.  WE THEN EXPECT FURTHER LOWERING TO
MAINLY IFR BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...BUT TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN.
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL EXPAND OVERNIGHT IN AREAS NORTH
OF THE MA TURNPIKE...BUT A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT
ANYWHERE.  PATCHY FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LOW
END MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.  AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN...SHOWERS
AND DRIZZLE WILL BE COMMON FOR THE FIRST PART OF WEDNESDAY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ZONES AND GRADUALLY EXPAND SOUTH.  WIDESPREAD MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED LATER WED INTO WED NIGHT.  NORTHEAST WIND
GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS DEVELOP ON THE COAST WED NIGHT...BUT NEAR 30
KNOT GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST MA COAST.

KBOS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS.

KBDL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN RAIN AND
POSSIBLY SOME ISOLATED THUNDER.  NE WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 TO 25 KTS
ACROSS S NH AND NE MA.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO VFR EXPECTED IN
CLEARING SKIES.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.  LOW PROBABILITY OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

***HIGH SEAS AND GALE FORCE NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
  NIGHT ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST ATLANTIC WATERS***

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST LATER TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.  WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE WATERS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS...EXCEPT FOR THE NORTHEAST WATERS WHERE
GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LOW
PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AS AN INTENSIFYING EASTERLY LOW LEVEL
JET DEVELOPS.  AT THE SURFACE...SHOULD SEE NORTHEAST SCA WIND GUSTS
OVERSPREAD MOST OF OUR WATERS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.  THE CORE OF
THE STRONGEST JET WILL BE NORTH OUR WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  STILL
THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF NORTHEAST 35 KNOT WIND GUSTS ACROSS
OUT FAR NORTHEAST WATERS.  THEREFORE...HAVE ISSUED A GALE WATCH FOR
THIS LOCATION.  ALSO...SEAS MAY BUILD TO AROUND 15 FEET IN OUR
EXTREME NORTHEAST ATLANTIC WATERS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. 10 TO 15 FOOT SEAS ON THE NORTHEASTERN
WATERS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON...5 TO 10 FOOT SEAS ELSEWHERE WILL DO THE SAME.
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 20 TO 25 KTS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE
DAY AS WELL.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR MOST
WATERS FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE DAY.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER.
WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE SLOWLY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  SEAS AND WINDS INCREASE GRADUALLY ON
THE SOUTHERN WATERS...BRIEFLY REACHING SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
FORTUNATELY ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES ARE RATHER LOW OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS AND THE CORE OF THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE TO OUR NORTH.
THEREFORE...THE RISK OF EVEN MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS QUITE LOW.
HOWEVER...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MINOR BEACH EROSION ALONG
THE SALISBURY AND PLUM ISLAND COASTS DURING THE HIGH TIDES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY.  NO COASTAL FLOOD HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED
THOUGH FOR THIS UPCOMING EVENT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ231>235-237.
     GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
     FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ251-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/RLG
NEAR TERM...FRANK/RLG
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...FRANK/RLG
MARINE...FRANK/RLG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 212257
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
657 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF WEDNESDAY WILL
TURN INTO A SOAKING RAIN LATER WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. SHOWERS WILL
LINGER FRIDAY AS THE STORM SLOWLY PULLS AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND.
MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
7 PM UPDATE...ONE CLUSTER OF SHOWERS IS VERY NEARLY STATIONARY
OVER THE HAMPDEN/HAMPSHIRE/WORCESTER COUNTY BORDER. RADAR IS
ESTIMATING THAT THIS CLUSTER OF STORMS HAS DROPPED 3 TO 5 INCHES
OF RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF PALMER...WARE...AND WARREN. HOWEVER...NO
REPORTS HAVE BEEN RECEIVED BY THE OFFICE OF RAINFALL OR FLOODING
AT THIS POINT. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE REGION IS DRY WITH A
FEW SHOWERS OVER LONG ISLAND AND THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS.
OVERALL...THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FROM THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE
WITH SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME DRIZZLE EXPANDING ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
ZONES AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST LATER TONIGHT.

LOW TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S. WE MAY
ALSO SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
***A SOAKING RAIN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY WITH THE
  HEAVIEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS***

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY...AS MOIST ONSHORE
NORTHEAST FLOW INCREASES. THE WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN WILL WAIT
UNTIL LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND PARTICULARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE SOAKING RAIN WILL DEVELOP AS LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED
CLOSED MID LEVEL CENTERS LIFTS NORTHEAST.  A STRONG EASTERLY LOW
LEVEL JET OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND
STRONG LIFT FOR A WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN EVENT.  THE CORE OF THE
STRONGEST LOW LEVEL JET WILL SETUP ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST
ZONES...WHICH IS WHERE WE EXPECT THE HEAVIEST RAIN.  OVERALL...
EXPECT A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS MOST OF OUR REGION
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. THE EXCEPTION MIGHT BE OUR FAR NORTHEAST
ZONES...WHERE 2 TO 3 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS SEEM REASONABLE.  THERE
IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF SOME 4 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN OUR FAR
NORTHEAST ZONES...MAINLY IN ESSEX COUNTY.  IF THIS WERE TO
MATERIALIZE...WE MIGHT HAVE SOME FLOODING ISSUES DEPENDING ON HOW
FAST IT FALLS.  HOWEVER...SINCE ITS A LOW PROBABILITY AND A 3RD AND
4TH PERIOD EVENT DID NOT ISSUE ANY FLOOD HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THINGS CLOSELY...ESPECIALLY IF MODEL TRENDS
SLIDE THE AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN CURRENTLY
INDICATED.  REGARDLESS...EXPECT TYPICAL NUISANCE POOR DRAINAGE
STREET FLOODING ISSUES.

FINALLY...WE DID NOTE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY LATE WED INTO WED
NIGHT.  INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST...BUT DO
NOT EXPECT ANYTHING WIDESPREAD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
* LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL BRING RAIN THU
* LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON FRI
* MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER THIS WEEKEND

OVERALL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES WITH A COUPLE OF FEATURES AS WELL AS
SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MESOSCALE DETAILS BUT THOSE ARE TO BE
EXPECTED.  THE MAIN WEATHER STORY WILL BE THE LONG DURATION COASTAL
STORM EARLY IN THE PERIOD.  AFTER THE COASTAL STORM MOVES AWAY FROM
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...THE WEATHER DRIES OUT AND BECOMES MORE
SEASONABLE.  UPPER LEVEL FLOW FLATTENS OUT LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MORE ZONAL FLOW EXPECTED.

THURSDAY...EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN TO CONTINUE AS A COASTAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES UP THE COAST TO MAINE.  AN ADDITIONAL
HALF TO INCH AND A HALF OF RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF
THE AREA THURSDAY.  AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
AND THEN THE MARITIMES...EXPECT HIGHEST AMOUNTS TO OCCUR ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE EAST COAST OF MASSACHUSETTS...PARTICULARLY ON CAPE COD AND
CAPE ANN WHERE RAIN WILL LAST THE LONGEST.  WITH THE HIGHER PWATS
AND LOW LEVEL JET STRONGEST ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...EXPECT THE
HEAVIEST RAIN AND THE STRONGEST WINDS TO OCCUR THERE.  THE ONE
EXCEPTION COULD BE ALONG CAPE ANN WHERE THERE MAY BE SOME STRONG
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OFF THE OCEAN.  COOL...ONSHORE FLOW AND OVERCAST
SKIES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S DURING THE DAY
AND IN THE 50S OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY...COULD SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP
INTO THE MARITIMES BUT WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BRINGING
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION.  OVERALL EXPECT DRIER WEATHER
AND A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AS THE DAY GOES ON.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE
NORTHEAST BUT HERE IS WHERE WE SEE SOME DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE
ECMWF AND THE GFS.  THE ECMWF HAS A STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER
TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WHILE THE GFS HAS A MORE NEUTRAL
UPPER TROUGH.  IN BOTH MODELS LOW PRESSURE IN QUEBEC WILL PULL A
COLD FRONT THROUGH AT LEAST A PORTION OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THE
GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE FRONT AND HAS MORE MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH IT...RESULTING IN A GREATER CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH
THE FRONT.  EXPECTING DRY SEASONABLE WEATHER SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND THEN SLIDES
SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
QUEBEC MAY BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.  ANOTHER CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE
WITH THIS FRONT BUT PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  CONDITIONS GRADUALLY WILL LOWER TO
MVFR FROM EAST TO WEST TONIGHT.  WE THEN EXPECT FURTHER LOWERING TO
MAINLY IFR BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...BUT TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN.
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL EXPAND OVERNIGHT IN AREAS NORTH
OF THE MA TURNPIKE...BUT A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT
ANYWHERE.  PATCHY FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LOW
END MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.  AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN...SHOWERS
AND DRIZZLE WILL BE COMMON FOR THE FIRST PART OF WEDNESDAY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ZONES AND GRADUALLY EXPAND SOUTH.  WIDESPREAD MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED LATER WED INTO WED NIGHT.  NORTHEAST WIND
GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS DEVELOP ON THE COAST WED NIGHT...BUT NEAR 30
KNOT GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST MA COAST.

KBOS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS.

KBDL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN RAIN AND
POSSIBLY SOME ISOLATED THUNDER.  NE WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 TO 25 KTS
ACROSS S NH AND NE MA.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO VFR EXPECTED IN
CLEARING SKIES.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.  LOW PROBABILITY OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

***HIGH SEAS AND GALE FORCE NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
  NIGHT ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST ATLANTIC WATERS***

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST LATER TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.  WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE WATERS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS...EXCEPT FOR THE NORTHEAST WATERS WHERE
GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LOW
PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AS AN INTENSIFYING EASTERLY LOW LEVEL
JET DEVELOPS.  AT THE SURFACE...SHOULD SEE NORTHEAST SCA WIND GUSTS
OVERSPREAD MOST OF OUR WATERS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.  THE CORE OF
THE STRONGEST JET WILL BE NORTH OUR WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  STILL
THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF NORTHEAST 35 KNOT WIND GUSTS ACROSS
OUT FAR NORTHEAST WATERS.  THEREFORE...HAVE ISSUED A GALE WATCH FOR
THIS LOCATION.  ALSO...SEAS MAY BUILD TO AROUND 15 FEET IN OUR
EXTREME NORTHEAST ATLANTIC WATERS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. 10 TO 15 FOOT SEAS ON THE NORTHEASTERN
WATERS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON...5 TO 10 FOOT SEAS ELSEWHERE WILL DO THE SAME.
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 20 TO 25 KTS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE
DAY AS WELL.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR MOST
WATERS FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE DAY.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER.
WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE SLOWLY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  SEAS AND WINDS INCREASE GRADUALLY ON
THE SOUTHERN WATERS...BRIEFLY REACHING SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
FORTUNATELY ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES ARE RATHER LOW OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS AND THE CORE OF THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE TO OUR NORTH.
THEREFORE...THE RISK OF EVEN MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS QUITE LOW.
HOWEVER...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MINOR BEACH EROSION ALONG
THE SALISBURY AND PLUM ISLAND COASTS DURING THE HIGH TIDES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY.  NO COASTAL FLOOD HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED
THOUGH FOR THIS UPCOMING EVENT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ231>235-237.
     GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
     FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ251-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/RLG
NEAR TERM...FRANK/RLG
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...FRANK/RLG
MARINE...FRANK/RLG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KALY 212216
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
616 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND THEN NORTHEAST TO THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY. A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN AND COOL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FROM
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST RAIN EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 6 PM EDT...ONE COMPACT SHORTWAVE HAS LIFTED NORTH OF THE
REGION...ALLOWING FOR A BRIEF LULL IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY.
HOWEVER...INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST IS
ALLOWING SHOWERS TO REDEVELOP ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SE
CATSKILL REGION. THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE NORTHWARD
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...SO SOME RAIN SHOULD REDEVELOP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL REGION...BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN VT
THROUGH THE EVENING COMMUTE.

WE WILL ALSO HAVE TO CLOSELY MONITOR CONVECTION CURRENTLY DEVELOPING
ACROSS NORTHERN NJ AND EXTREME SE NYS. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT
THE REMNANTS OF THIS COULD REACH PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY/LITCHFIELD CO...AND THE SE CATSKILLS LATER THIS EVENING AS
WELL.

SHOWERS MAY DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE TOWARDS MIDNIGHT INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESP FOR AREAS E OF THE HUDSON RIVER...AS THE
BULK OF FORCING SHIFTS TO OUR S AND W ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW...AND ALSO OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST IN THE REGION OF STRENGTHENING WARM ADVECTION. HAVE KEPT CHC
POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT...EXPECTING THE GENERAL AREAL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS TO DECREASE...ALTHOUGH AGAIN...MAY REMAIN A
BIT GREATER ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY AND
EASTERN CATSKILLS.

SPOTTY DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY ALSO DEVELOP BETWEEN THE SHOWERS AS LOW
LEVELS MOISTEN...AND INTERACT WITH THE TERRAIN.

MIN TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY FALL INTO THE 40S IN MOST AREAS BY
DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY...AT THIS TIME...BARRING ANY SMALLER...UNRESOLVED
SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEVELOPING
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR SOUTH...IT APPEARS THAT LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF FORCING WILL BE PRESENT OVER OUR REGION FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST
HALF OF THE DAY. THEREFORE...HAVE INDICATED ONLY CHC POPS FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...AS MID/UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT
DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY...AND
PIVOTS BACK WESTWARD...THE AREAL COVERAGE OF RAIN AND/OR SHOWERS
SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON...ESP ACROSS SOUTHERN VT AND
THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND NW MA. FURTHER S AND W...AREAL
COVERAGE MAY ONCE AGAIN REMAIN SPOTTY INTO THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS
EVEN A POSSIBILITY OF SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOPING IN SOME
AREAS DURING THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE MOISTURE DEEPENS
AGAIN FROM NE TO SW LATE IN THE DAY. ASSUMING RAINFALL REMAINS
FAIRLY LIMITED...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 50S IN MOST
AREAS...EXCEPT FOR UPPER 40S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VT...AND THE EASTERN CATSKILLS.

WED NT-THU...THIS APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR A WIDESPREAD PERIOD OF
RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MODERATE TO PERHAPS LOCALLY HVY
POCKETS OF RAIN...ESP ACROSS HIGHER...E-FACING SLOPES ACROSS
SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA...THE SE ADIRONDACKS...AND ALSO THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS. THE BULK OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE
COMBINATION OF AN E/NE LOW LEVEL JET OF 40-50 KT TRANSLATING
WESTWARD TOWARD THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
VT/WESTERN MA...ALONG WITH DEEP LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING AROUND THE W/NW PERIPHERY OF THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL
LOW...SHOULD FAVOR SOME BANDS OF MOD-HVY RAINFALL PIVOTING
WEST...THEN SW ACROSS THE REGION LATE WED NT INTO AT LEAST THU AM.
AGAIN...AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE COMBINATION OF UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE SHOULD FAVOR
THE GREATEST RAINFALL AMTS FROM SOUTHERN VT INTO SE
ADIRONDACKS...WHERE UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL COULD OCCUR. A
SECONDARY MAX OF AROUND 2 INCHES APPEARS POSSIBLE IN THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS DUE TO UPSLOPE...WHILE A MIN SHOULD OCCUR WITHIN THE
IMMEDIATE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...WITH GENERALLY 0.5-1.5 INCHES
OCCURRING. WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE GUSTY FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST
AS WELL...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING OR EXCEEDING 35 MPH
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS...BERKSHIRES
AND TACONICS...AND POSSIBLY WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY DUE TO SOME FUNNELING EFFECTS...WHERE SOME GUSTS OF
30-35 MPH COULD ALSO OCCUR. WED NT MIN TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY FALL
INTO THE 40S IN MOST AREAS...AND MAXES MAY REMAIN BELOW 50 IN
MANY AREAS ON THU DUE TO CLOUDS...RAIN AND A PERSISTENT NORTH WIND
FUNNELING COOL AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR SOUTHWARD...WHILE WET BULB
EFFECTS OCCUR WITH THE FALLING RAINFALL. IF THE RAIN DECREASES IN
AREAL COVERAGE IN THE AFTERNOON...SLIGHTLY WARMER MAX TEMPS WOULD
THEN BE POSSIBLE.

THU NT...SOME ADDITIONAL BANDS OF SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE TO ROTATE
SOUTHWEST/SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION...ESP EARLY AND FOR AREAS NEAR
AND E OF THE HUDSON RIVER. TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER 40S IN
MOST AREAS...WITH SOME UPPER 30S POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
WITHIN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND CATSKILLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT UNSETTLED AND ENDS WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS.

ON FRIDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED IN THE
GULF OF MAINE WITH A CYCLONIC FLOW BACK ACRS THE FA. THIS WILL KEEP
CLOUDS ACRS THE REGION WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY ACRS THE NRN
TWO THIRDS OF THE FA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS ON FRIDAY
TO BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER
30S TO MID 40S.

FOR SATURDAY...DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH A FEW LINGER
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE NOSING INTO THE FA FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY. EXPECT HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY AT THIS POINT LOOK MAINLY DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE FA. HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 60 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTHWEST TO THE
LOWER 40S SOUTHEAST. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE A MILDER DAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE CAROLINAS AND A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RAIN ON RADAR ASSOCIATED WITH A SMALL UPPER IMPULSE ON THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE DEVELOPING UPPER LOW BEGINNING TO EXIT THE
KALB...KPOU AND KGFL AREAS. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE WEST
ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER SMALL UPPER IMPULSE WITHIN THE DEVELOPING
UPPER LOW ARE BUILDING EAST.  SO SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY
COULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE EVENING. VARYING COVERAGE
THROUGH THE NIGHT...SO GENERALLY VCSH TONIGHT. THEN...INCREASING
COVERAGE LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING AS THE MAIN
UPPER ENERGY TRACKS CLOSER TO THE REGION AND THE COASTAL LOW BEGINS
TO DEVELOP.

CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD HOVER JUST IN THE
VFR RANGE...JUST ABOVE 3000 FEET...BUT SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF LOW
CLOUDS...BELOW 1000 FEET ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE INCREASED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. TONIGHT...MAINLY MVFR...BUT SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS
BELOW 1000 FEET ARE POSSIBLE TOWARD SUNRISE...AND THEN THROUGH THE
MORNING AS RAIN INCREASES IN COVERAGE.

WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO EAST AT 5 TO 10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PDS RA.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. OCNL SHRA...RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND THEN NORTHEAST TO THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY. A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN AND COOL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FROM
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST RAIN EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK...EVEN THOUGH WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND
WET AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF SOUTH AND EAST THE REGION.
INTERMITTENT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FROM TODAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH
THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL EXPECTED FOR LATE WED INTO
EARLY THU.

WITH THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR...ESP LATE WED INTO EARLY THU. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO
TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA
DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL
WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD OF A FEW DAYS...SO NO WIDESPREAD
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS
THAT THE GREATEST AMTS...UP TO 2 INCHES...WOULD BE FAVORED ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...ESP SOUTHERN VT...AND
POSSIBLY THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...WITH LESS AMTS...GENERALLY 0.5 TO
1.5 INCHES...OCCURRING WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DUE TO
DOWNSLOPING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/GJM
NEAR TERM...KL/11
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM








000
FXUS61 KALY 212216
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
616 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND THEN NORTHEAST TO THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY. A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN AND COOL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FROM
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST RAIN EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 6 PM EDT...ONE COMPACT SHORTWAVE HAS LIFTED NORTH OF THE
REGION...ALLOWING FOR A BRIEF LULL IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY.
HOWEVER...INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST IS
ALLOWING SHOWERS TO REDEVELOP ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SE
CATSKILL REGION. THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE NORTHWARD
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...SO SOME RAIN SHOULD REDEVELOP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL REGION...BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN VT
THROUGH THE EVENING COMMUTE.

WE WILL ALSO HAVE TO CLOSELY MONITOR CONVECTION CURRENTLY DEVELOPING
ACROSS NORTHERN NJ AND EXTREME SE NYS. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT
THE REMNANTS OF THIS COULD REACH PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY/LITCHFIELD CO...AND THE SE CATSKILLS LATER THIS EVENING AS
WELL.

SHOWERS MAY DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE TOWARDS MIDNIGHT INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESP FOR AREAS E OF THE HUDSON RIVER...AS THE
BULK OF FORCING SHIFTS TO OUR S AND W ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW...AND ALSO OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST IN THE REGION OF STRENGTHENING WARM ADVECTION. HAVE KEPT CHC
POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT...EXPECTING THE GENERAL AREAL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS TO DECREASE...ALTHOUGH AGAIN...MAY REMAIN A
BIT GREATER ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY AND
EASTERN CATSKILLS.

SPOTTY DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY ALSO DEVELOP BETWEEN THE SHOWERS AS LOW
LEVELS MOISTEN...AND INTERACT WITH THE TERRAIN.

MIN TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY FALL INTO THE 40S IN MOST AREAS BY
DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY...AT THIS TIME...BARRING ANY SMALLER...UNRESOLVED
SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEVELOPING
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR SOUTH...IT APPEARS THAT LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF FORCING WILL BE PRESENT OVER OUR REGION FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST
HALF OF THE DAY. THEREFORE...HAVE INDICATED ONLY CHC POPS FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...AS MID/UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT
DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY...AND
PIVOTS BACK WESTWARD...THE AREAL COVERAGE OF RAIN AND/OR SHOWERS
SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON...ESP ACROSS SOUTHERN VT AND
THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND NW MA. FURTHER S AND W...AREAL
COVERAGE MAY ONCE AGAIN REMAIN SPOTTY INTO THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS
EVEN A POSSIBILITY OF SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOPING IN SOME
AREAS DURING THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE MOISTURE DEEPENS
AGAIN FROM NE TO SW LATE IN THE DAY. ASSUMING RAINFALL REMAINS
FAIRLY LIMITED...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 50S IN MOST
AREAS...EXCEPT FOR UPPER 40S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VT...AND THE EASTERN CATSKILLS.

WED NT-THU...THIS APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR A WIDESPREAD PERIOD OF
RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MODERATE TO PERHAPS LOCALLY HVY
POCKETS OF RAIN...ESP ACROSS HIGHER...E-FACING SLOPES ACROSS
SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA...THE SE ADIRONDACKS...AND ALSO THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS. THE BULK OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE
COMBINATION OF AN E/NE LOW LEVEL JET OF 40-50 KT TRANSLATING
WESTWARD TOWARD THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
VT/WESTERN MA...ALONG WITH DEEP LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING AROUND THE W/NW PERIPHERY OF THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL
LOW...SHOULD FAVOR SOME BANDS OF MOD-HVY RAINFALL PIVOTING
WEST...THEN SW ACROSS THE REGION LATE WED NT INTO AT LEAST THU AM.
AGAIN...AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE COMBINATION OF UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE SHOULD FAVOR
THE GREATEST RAINFALL AMTS FROM SOUTHERN VT INTO SE
ADIRONDACKS...WHERE UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL COULD OCCUR. A
SECONDARY MAX OF AROUND 2 INCHES APPEARS POSSIBLE IN THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS DUE TO UPSLOPE...WHILE A MIN SHOULD OCCUR WITHIN THE
IMMEDIATE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...WITH GENERALLY 0.5-1.5 INCHES
OCCURRING. WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE GUSTY FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST
AS WELL...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING OR EXCEEDING 35 MPH
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS...BERKSHIRES
AND TACONICS...AND POSSIBLY WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY DUE TO SOME FUNNELING EFFECTS...WHERE SOME GUSTS OF
30-35 MPH COULD ALSO OCCUR. WED NT MIN TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY FALL
INTO THE 40S IN MOST AREAS...AND MAXES MAY REMAIN BELOW 50 IN
MANY AREAS ON THU DUE TO CLOUDS...RAIN AND A PERSISTENT NORTH WIND
FUNNELING COOL AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR SOUTHWARD...WHILE WET BULB
EFFECTS OCCUR WITH THE FALLING RAINFALL. IF THE RAIN DECREASES IN
AREAL COVERAGE IN THE AFTERNOON...SLIGHTLY WARMER MAX TEMPS WOULD
THEN BE POSSIBLE.

THU NT...SOME ADDITIONAL BANDS OF SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE TO ROTATE
SOUTHWEST/SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION...ESP EARLY AND FOR AREAS NEAR
AND E OF THE HUDSON RIVER. TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER 40S IN
MOST AREAS...WITH SOME UPPER 30S POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
WITHIN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND CATSKILLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT UNSETTLED AND ENDS WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS.

ON FRIDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED IN THE
GULF OF MAINE WITH A CYCLONIC FLOW BACK ACRS THE FA. THIS WILL KEEP
CLOUDS ACRS THE REGION WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY ACRS THE NRN
TWO THIRDS OF THE FA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS ON FRIDAY
TO BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER
30S TO MID 40S.

FOR SATURDAY...DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH A FEW LINGER
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE NOSING INTO THE FA FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY. EXPECT HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY AT THIS POINT LOOK MAINLY DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE FA. HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 60 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTHWEST TO THE
LOWER 40S SOUTHEAST. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE A MILDER DAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE CAROLINAS AND A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RAIN ON RADAR ASSOCIATED WITH A SMALL UPPER IMPULSE ON THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE DEVELOPING UPPER LOW BEGINNING TO EXIT THE
KALB...KPOU AND KGFL AREAS. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE WEST
ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER SMALL UPPER IMPULSE WITHIN THE DEVELOPING
UPPER LOW ARE BUILDING EAST.  SO SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY
COULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE EVENING. VARYING COVERAGE
THROUGH THE NIGHT...SO GENERALLY VCSH TONIGHT. THEN...INCREASING
COVERAGE LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING AS THE MAIN
UPPER ENERGY TRACKS CLOSER TO THE REGION AND THE COASTAL LOW BEGINS
TO DEVELOP.

CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD HOVER JUST IN THE
VFR RANGE...JUST ABOVE 3000 FEET...BUT SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF LOW
CLOUDS...BELOW 1000 FEET ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE INCREASED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. TONIGHT...MAINLY MVFR...BUT SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS
BELOW 1000 FEET ARE POSSIBLE TOWARD SUNRISE...AND THEN THROUGH THE
MORNING AS RAIN INCREASES IN COVERAGE.

WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO EAST AT 5 TO 10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PDS RA.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. OCNL SHRA...RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND THEN NORTHEAST TO THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY. A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN AND COOL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FROM
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST RAIN EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK...EVEN THOUGH WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND
WET AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF SOUTH AND EAST THE REGION.
INTERMITTENT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FROM TODAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH
THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL EXPECTED FOR LATE WED INTO
EARLY THU.

WITH THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR...ESP LATE WED INTO EARLY THU. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO
TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA
DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL
WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD OF A FEW DAYS...SO NO WIDESPREAD
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS
THAT THE GREATEST AMTS...UP TO 2 INCHES...WOULD BE FAVORED ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...ESP SOUTHERN VT...AND
POSSIBLY THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...WITH LESS AMTS...GENERALLY 0.5 TO
1.5 INCHES...OCCURRING WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DUE TO
DOWNSLOPING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/GJM
NEAR TERM...KL/11
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM








000
FXUS61 KOKX 212216
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
616 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE DELMARVA AREA...AND THEN WILL
MEANDER SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE LOW THEN TRACKS
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES LATE THIS WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES SATURDAY...THEN
CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
GRIDS UPDATED TO ADJUST POPS ACROSS ERN LI WHERE WEAK TSTM COMPLEX
IS ROLLING THRU. TEMPS AND OTHER HOURLY FIELDS ADJUSTED. FCST
FOR SCT PCPN STILL LOOKS ON TRACK...HOWEVER SLOW MOVEMENT OF
ACTIVITY WILL RESULT IN POCKETS OF LINGERING PCPN...PARTICULARLY
OVER NJ AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY.

DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES TONIGHT AND MOVES TO JUST
WEST OF THE REGION WITH MID LEVEL CUTOFF LOW MOVING TOWARDS THE
DELMARVA. LOW AT THE SURFACE NEAR THE DELMARVA MOVES EAST AND
OFFSHORE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

BASICALLY...SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION INTO THIS
EVENING WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION DUE TO STEEP LAPSE RATES. COULD
SEE SOME SMALL HAIL WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM. WINDS ARE
STILL LIGHT OVERALL BUT BECOME MORE NORTHERLY LATE TONIGHT. LATE
TONIGHT...EXPECTING AN OVERALL INCREASE IN SHOWER COVERAGE WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS STILL A POSSIBILITY AS MUCAPE VALUES STILL
COULD REACH 100-200 J/KG...CLOSER TO THE COAST.

LOWS WERE TAKEN FROM MAV GUIDANCE...WHICH IS RELATIVELY WARMER
THAN OTHER GUIDANCE...MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
LOW BECOMES NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED BUT STILL RESULTS IN A
SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT FOR CYCLOGENESIS TO OCCUR. THE LOW AT THE
SURFACE SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND GRADUALLY INTENSIFIES WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

WITH COLD POOL ALOFT...RAIN WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS THE
REGION...ALTHOUGH INITIALLY IT LOOKS TO BE VERY LIGHT...PICKING UP
IN INTENSITY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A GUSTY
NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

RAIN MAY BECOME INTERMITTENT AT TIMES WITH DRY INTERVALS. MODELS
ARE HAVING DIFFICULTY PINPOINTING WHERE THE MORE CONSISTENT RAIN
WILL OCCUR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STACKED LOW EAST OF LONG ISLAND THU MORNING WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT
N/NE UP INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ADDITIONAL
SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL THEN FEED INTO THE MEAN TROUGH OVER EASTERN
NOAM SENDING A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION SAT NIGHT.
THEREAFTER... THERE ARE SIGNS THAT A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL
ENSUE WITH THE FORECAST FOR A NEUTRAL NAO AND PNA.

RAIN WILL LINGER ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE COASTAL LOW THU INTO THU
NIGHT BEFORE CONDITIONS DRY OUT. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER
WITH THE CLEARING WITH CLOUD COVER POSSIBLY REMAINING THROUGH SAT.
HOWEVER...HAVE AIRED MORE OPTIMISTICALLY WITH CLEARING LATE FRI INTO
FRI NIGHT. AS FOR THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SAT NIGHT...HAVE
MAINTAINED A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS DO HAVE SOME
LIGHT QPF. PREFER TO SEE MORE RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY BEFORE ADDING
ANY SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FROM SUN
NIGHT INTO MON...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
MIDWEST ON TUE.

THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...GUSTY W-NW WINDS WILL PREVAIL WITH THE
STRONGEST GUSTS LOOKING TO BE ON SUN BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

TEMPS WILL MODERATE FROM BELOW NORMAL ON THU WITH THE RAIN AND CLOUD
COVER TO ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A WARM RIDGE BUILDS IN
ALOFT AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE REMAINS IN THE VICINITY INTO WEDNESDAY.

MOSTLY VFR INTO THIS EVENING. TIMING OF MVFR CEILINGS AND
PREVAILING -SHRA COULD BE OFF BY A FEW HOURS. SHRA/TSTMS COULD
PASS THROUGH AT ANY TERMINAL AT ANY GIVEN TIME INTO THIS
EVENING...BUT ANY TSTM ACTIVITY TOO SPARSE TO INCLUDE IN TAFS.
EXCEPTION IS KISP WHERE HAVE EVIDENCE OF CELL CURRENTLY CLOSE
ENOUGH TO WARRANT VCTS THROUGH 23Z.

ESE-SE WINDS AROUND 10KT...BACKING TO NE THIS EVENING. COULD BE A FEW
GUSTS 15-20KT THIS AFTERNOON. NE WINDS LIKELY GUSTING TO 20-25KT
WEDNESDAY.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: A PERIOD OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OF 1-2
HOURS COULD PRECEDE THE WIND SHIFT TO NE. WINDS COULD SHIFT NE A
FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: A PERIOD OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OF 1-2
HOURS COULD PRECEDE THE WIND SHIFT TO NE. WINDS COULD SHIFT NE A
FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: A PERIOD OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OF 1-2
HOURS COULD PRECEDE THE WIND SHIFT TO NE. WINDS COULD SHIFT NE A
FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: A PERIOD OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OF 1-2
HOURS COULD PRECEDE THE WIND SHIFT TO NE. WINDS COULD SHIFT NE A
FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST. TEMPO CIGS 2000-3000 FT POSSIBLE
UNTIL 23Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: A PERIOD OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OF 1-2
HOURS COULD PRECEDE THE WIND SHIFT TO NE. WINDS COULD SHIFT NE A
FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST. -SHRA COULD PREVAIL FOR A TIME
LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: A PERIOD OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OF 1-2
HOURS COULD PRECEDE THE WIND SHIFT TO NE. WINDS COULD SHIFT NE A
FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST. VCTS POSSIBLE UNTIL 23Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
IN SHRA. N-NW WINDS G25KT LIKELY AND G30KT POSSIBLE.
.FRIIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...MOST LIKELY VFR...WITH LOW CHANCE SPOTTY
MVFR. NW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR. NW-W WINDS G25-30KT POSSIBLE.
.SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. NW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS LIGHT AND FROM THE E-SE WITH SUB SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT. WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT PRESENT WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
SOUTH OF THE WATERS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ON WED THROUGH
WED NIGHT WITH LOW FURTHER DEEPENING. SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY BY
WED AFTERNOON ON ALL WATERS. SEAS INCREASE TO 5 TO 6 FT ON THE
COASTAL OCEAN WATERS WED AND WED NIGHT. THE HIGHER OCEAN SEAS
CONTINUE INTO THU. SCA FOR OCEAN WED THROUGH THU AND OTHER WATERS
WED AFTERNOON THROUGH WED NIGHT.

A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ON THE OCEAN
WATERS AS LOW PRESSURE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND THU LIFTS SLOWLY NE AND
UP INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THIS WEEKEND. AT THE SAME
TIME...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY WORK EAST AND INTO THE WATERS BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GUSTY W-NW FLOW. MARGINAL
SCA GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE SOUND...HARBOR...AND SURROUNDING BAYS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FEW SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM...WILL RESULT IN LESS
THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH ON AVERAGE THROUGH TONIGHT. RAIN
INCREASES LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH AROUND 1/2 QPF
FORECAST. LOCALIZED NUISANCE URBAN OR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE.

PERIODS OF RAIN...BRIEFLY HEAVY IN SPOTS...COULD RESULT IN
LOCALIZED NUISANCE URBAN OR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING WED THROUGH
THU.

STORM TOTALS SHOULD AVERAGE BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES PER ANALYSIS OF
OPERATIONAL MODELS...AND SREF MEMBERS. THERE COULD BE SOME LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS. THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN SHOULD NOT RESULT IN ANY
SERIOUS LIFE THREATENING OR PROPERTY FLOODING ISSUES/CONCERNS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JM
NEAR TERM...JMC/JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...JC/MALOIT
MARINE...JM/DW
HYDROLOGY...JM/DW








000
FXUS61 KOKX 212216
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
616 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE DELMARVA AREA...AND THEN WILL
MEANDER SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE LOW THEN TRACKS
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES LATE THIS WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES SATURDAY...THEN
CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
GRIDS UPDATED TO ADJUST POPS ACROSS ERN LI WHERE WEAK TSTM COMPLEX
IS ROLLING THRU. TEMPS AND OTHER HOURLY FIELDS ADJUSTED. FCST
FOR SCT PCPN STILL LOOKS ON TRACK...HOWEVER SLOW MOVEMENT OF
ACTIVITY WILL RESULT IN POCKETS OF LINGERING PCPN...PARTICULARLY
OVER NJ AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY.

DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES TONIGHT AND MOVES TO JUST
WEST OF THE REGION WITH MID LEVEL CUTOFF LOW MOVING TOWARDS THE
DELMARVA. LOW AT THE SURFACE NEAR THE DELMARVA MOVES EAST AND
OFFSHORE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

BASICALLY...SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION INTO THIS
EVENING WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION DUE TO STEEP LAPSE RATES. COULD
SEE SOME SMALL HAIL WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM. WINDS ARE
STILL LIGHT OVERALL BUT BECOME MORE NORTHERLY LATE TONIGHT. LATE
TONIGHT...EXPECTING AN OVERALL INCREASE IN SHOWER COVERAGE WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS STILL A POSSIBILITY AS MUCAPE VALUES STILL
COULD REACH 100-200 J/KG...CLOSER TO THE COAST.

LOWS WERE TAKEN FROM MAV GUIDANCE...WHICH IS RELATIVELY WARMER
THAN OTHER GUIDANCE...MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
LOW BECOMES NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED BUT STILL RESULTS IN A
SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT FOR CYCLOGENESIS TO OCCUR. THE LOW AT THE
SURFACE SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND GRADUALLY INTENSIFIES WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

WITH COLD POOL ALOFT...RAIN WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS THE
REGION...ALTHOUGH INITIALLY IT LOOKS TO BE VERY LIGHT...PICKING UP
IN INTENSITY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A GUSTY
NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

RAIN MAY BECOME INTERMITTENT AT TIMES WITH DRY INTERVALS. MODELS
ARE HAVING DIFFICULTY PINPOINTING WHERE THE MORE CONSISTENT RAIN
WILL OCCUR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STACKED LOW EAST OF LONG ISLAND THU MORNING WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT
N/NE UP INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ADDITIONAL
SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL THEN FEED INTO THE MEAN TROUGH OVER EASTERN
NOAM SENDING A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION SAT NIGHT.
THEREAFTER... THERE ARE SIGNS THAT A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL
ENSUE WITH THE FORECAST FOR A NEUTRAL NAO AND PNA.

RAIN WILL LINGER ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE COASTAL LOW THU INTO THU
NIGHT BEFORE CONDITIONS DRY OUT. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER
WITH THE CLEARING WITH CLOUD COVER POSSIBLY REMAINING THROUGH SAT.
HOWEVER...HAVE AIRED MORE OPTIMISTICALLY WITH CLEARING LATE FRI INTO
FRI NIGHT. AS FOR THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SAT NIGHT...HAVE
MAINTAINED A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS DO HAVE SOME
LIGHT QPF. PREFER TO SEE MORE RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY BEFORE ADDING
ANY SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FROM SUN
NIGHT INTO MON...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
MIDWEST ON TUE.

THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...GUSTY W-NW WINDS WILL PREVAIL WITH THE
STRONGEST GUSTS LOOKING TO BE ON SUN BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

TEMPS WILL MODERATE FROM BELOW NORMAL ON THU WITH THE RAIN AND CLOUD
COVER TO ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A WARM RIDGE BUILDS IN
ALOFT AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE REMAINS IN THE VICINITY INTO WEDNESDAY.

MOSTLY VFR INTO THIS EVENING. TIMING OF MVFR CEILINGS AND
PREVAILING -SHRA COULD BE OFF BY A FEW HOURS. SHRA/TSTMS COULD
PASS THROUGH AT ANY TERMINAL AT ANY GIVEN TIME INTO THIS
EVENING...BUT ANY TSTM ACTIVITY TOO SPARSE TO INCLUDE IN TAFS.
EXCEPTION IS KISP WHERE HAVE EVIDENCE OF CELL CURRENTLY CLOSE
ENOUGH TO WARRANT VCTS THROUGH 23Z.

ESE-SE WINDS AROUND 10KT...BACKING TO NE THIS EVENING. COULD BE A FEW
GUSTS 15-20KT THIS AFTERNOON. NE WINDS LIKELY GUSTING TO 20-25KT
WEDNESDAY.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: A PERIOD OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OF 1-2
HOURS COULD PRECEDE THE WIND SHIFT TO NE. WINDS COULD SHIFT NE A
FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: A PERIOD OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OF 1-2
HOURS COULD PRECEDE THE WIND SHIFT TO NE. WINDS COULD SHIFT NE A
FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: A PERIOD OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OF 1-2
HOURS COULD PRECEDE THE WIND SHIFT TO NE. WINDS COULD SHIFT NE A
FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: A PERIOD OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OF 1-2
HOURS COULD PRECEDE THE WIND SHIFT TO NE. WINDS COULD SHIFT NE A
FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST. TEMPO CIGS 2000-3000 FT POSSIBLE
UNTIL 23Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: A PERIOD OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OF 1-2
HOURS COULD PRECEDE THE WIND SHIFT TO NE. WINDS COULD SHIFT NE A
FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST. -SHRA COULD PREVAIL FOR A TIME
LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: A PERIOD OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OF 1-2
HOURS COULD PRECEDE THE WIND SHIFT TO NE. WINDS COULD SHIFT NE A
FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST. VCTS POSSIBLE UNTIL 23Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
IN SHRA. N-NW WINDS G25KT LIKELY AND G30KT POSSIBLE.
.FRIIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...MOST LIKELY VFR...WITH LOW CHANCE SPOTTY
MVFR. NW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR. NW-W WINDS G25-30KT POSSIBLE.
.SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. NW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS LIGHT AND FROM THE E-SE WITH SUB SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT. WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT PRESENT WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
SOUTH OF THE WATERS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ON WED THROUGH
WED NIGHT WITH LOW FURTHER DEEPENING. SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY BY
WED AFTERNOON ON ALL WATERS. SEAS INCREASE TO 5 TO 6 FT ON THE
COASTAL OCEAN WATERS WED AND WED NIGHT. THE HIGHER OCEAN SEAS
CONTINUE INTO THU. SCA FOR OCEAN WED THROUGH THU AND OTHER WATERS
WED AFTERNOON THROUGH WED NIGHT.

A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ON THE OCEAN
WATERS AS LOW PRESSURE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND THU LIFTS SLOWLY NE AND
UP INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THIS WEEKEND. AT THE SAME
TIME...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY WORK EAST AND INTO THE WATERS BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GUSTY W-NW FLOW. MARGINAL
SCA GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE SOUND...HARBOR...AND SURROUNDING BAYS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FEW SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM...WILL RESULT IN LESS
THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH ON AVERAGE THROUGH TONIGHT. RAIN
INCREASES LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH AROUND 1/2 QPF
FORECAST. LOCALIZED NUISANCE URBAN OR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE.

PERIODS OF RAIN...BRIEFLY HEAVY IN SPOTS...COULD RESULT IN
LOCALIZED NUISANCE URBAN OR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING WED THROUGH
THU.

STORM TOTALS SHOULD AVERAGE BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES PER ANALYSIS OF
OPERATIONAL MODELS...AND SREF MEMBERS. THERE COULD BE SOME LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS. THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN SHOULD NOT RESULT IN ANY
SERIOUS LIFE THREATENING OR PROPERTY FLOODING ISSUES/CONCERNS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JM
NEAR TERM...JMC/JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...JC/MALOIT
MARINE...JM/DW
HYDROLOGY...JM/DW








000
FXUS61 KOKX 212045
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
445 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE DELMARVA AREA...AND THEN WILL
MEANDER SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE LOW THEN TRACKS
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES LATE THIS WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES SATURDAY...THEN
CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES TONIGHT AND MOVES TO JUST
WEST OF THE REGION WITH MID LEVEL CUTOFF LOW MOVING TOWARDS THE
DELMARVA. LOW AT THE SURFACE NEAR THE DELMARVA MOVES EAST AND
OFFSHORE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

BASICALLY...SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION INTO THIS
EVENING WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION DUE TO STEEP LAPSE RATES. COULD
SEE SOME SMALL HAIL WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM. WINDS ARE
STILL LIGHT OVERALL BUT BECOME MORE NORTHERLY LATE TONIGHT. LATE
TONIGHT...EXPECTING AN OVERALL INCREASE IN SHOWER COVERAGE WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS STILL A POSSIBILITY AS MUCAPE VALUES STILL
COULD REACH 100-200 J/KG...CLOSER TO THE COAST.

LOWS WERE TAKEN FROM MAV GUIDANCE...WHICH IS RELATIVELY WARMER
THAN OTHER GUIDANCE...MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
LOW BECOMES NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED BUT STILL RESULTS IN A
SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT FOR CYCLOGENESIS TO OCCUR. THE LOW AT THE
SURFACE SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND GRADUALLY INTENSIFIES WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

WITH COLD POOL ALOFT...RAIN WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS THE
REGION...ALTHOUGH INITIALLY IT LOOKS TO BE VERY LIGHT...PICKING UP
IN INTENSITY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A GUSTY
NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

RAIN MAY BECOME INTERMITTENT AT TIMES WITH DRY INTERVALS. MODELS
ARE HAVING DIFFICULTY PINPOINTING WHERE THE MORE CONSISTENT RAIN
WILL OCCUR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STACKED LOW EAST OF LONG ISLAND THU MORNING WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT
N/NE UP INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ADDITIONAL
SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL THEN FEED INTO THE MEAN TROUGH OVER EASTERN
NOAM SENDING A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION SAT NIGHT.
THEREAFTER... THERE ARE SIGNS THAT A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL
ENSUE WITH THE FORECAST FOR A NEUTRAL NAO AND PNA.

RAIN WILL LINGER ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE COASTAL LOW THU INTO THU
NIGHT BEFORE CONDITIONS DRY OUT. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER
WITH THE CLEARING WITH CLOUD COVER POSSIBLY REMAINING THROUGH SAT.
HOWEVER...HAVE AIRED MORE OPTIMISTICALLY WITH CLEARING LATE FRI INTO
FRI NIGHT. AS FOR THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SAT NIGHT...HAVE
MAINTAINED A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS DO HAVE SOME
LIGHT QPF. PREFER TO SEE MORE RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY BEFORE ADDING
ANY SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FROM SUN
NIGHT INTO MON...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
MIDWEST ON TUE.

THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...GUSTY W-NW WINDS WILL PREVAIL WITH THE
STRONGEST GUSTS LOOKING TO BE ON SUN BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

TEMPS WILL MODERATE FROM BELOW NORMAL ON THU WITH THE RAIN AND CLOUD
COVER TO ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A WARM RIDGE BUILDS IN
ALOFT AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE REMAINS IN THE VICINITY INTO WEDNESDAY.

MOSTLY VFR INTO THIS EVENING. TIMING OF MVFR CEILINGS AND
PREVAILING -SHRA COULD BE OFF BY A FEW HOURS. SHRA/TSTMS COULD
PASS THROUGH AT ANY TERMINAL AT ANY GIVEN TIME INTO THIS
EVENING...BUT ANY TSTM ACTIVITY TOO SPARSE TO INCLUDE IN TAFS.
EXCEPTION IS KISP WHERE HAVE EVIDENCE OF CELL CURRENTLY CLOSE
ENOUGH TO WARRANT VCTS THROUGH 23Z.

ESE-SE WINDS AROUND 10KT...BACKING TO NE THIS EVENING. COULD BE A FEW
GUSTS 15-20KT THIS AFTERNOON. NE WINDS LIKELY GUSTING TO 20-25KT
WEDNESDAY.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: A PERIOD OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OF 1-2
HOURS COULD PRECEDE THE WIND SHIFT TO NE. WINDS COULD SHIFT NE A
FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: A PERIOD OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OF 1-2
HOURS COULD PRECEDE THE WIND SHIFT TO NE. WINDS COULD SHIFT NE A
FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: A PERIOD OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OF 1-2
HOURS COULD PRECEDE THE WIND SHIFT TO NE. WINDS COULD SHIFT NE A
FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: A PERIOD OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OF 1-2
HOURS COULD PRECEDE THE WIND SHIFT TO NE. WINDS COULD SHIFT NE A
FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST. TEMPO CIGS 2000-3000 FT POSSIBLE
UNTIL 23Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: A PERIOD OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OF 1-2
HOURS COULD PRECEDE THE WIND SHIFT TO NE. WINDS COULD SHIFT NE A
FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST. -SHRA COULD PREVAIL FOR A TIME
LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: A PERIOD OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OF 1-2
HOURS COULD PRECEDE THE WIND SHIFT TO NE. WINDS COULD SHIFT NE A
FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST. VCTS POSSIBLE UNTIL 23Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
IN SHRA. N-NW WINDS G25KT LIKELY AND G30KT POSSIBLE.
.FRIIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...MOST LIKELY VFR...WITH LOW CHANCE SPOTTY
MVFR. NW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR. NW-W WINDS G25-30KT POSSIBLE.
.SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. NW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS LIGHT AND FROM THE E-SE WITH SUB SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT. WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT PRESENT WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
SOUTH OF THE WATERS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ON WED THROUGH
WED NIGHT WITH LOW FURTHER DEEPENING. SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY BY
WED AFTERNOON ON ALL WATERS. SEAS INCREASE TO 5 TO 6 FT ON THE
COASTAL OCEAN WATERS WED AND WED NIGHT. THE HIGHER OCEAN SEAS
CONTINUE INTO THU. SCA FOR OCEAN WED THROUGH THU AND OTHER WATERS
WED AFTERNOON THROUGH WED NIGHT.

A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ON THE OCEAN
WATERS AS LOW PRESSURE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND THU LIFTS SLOWLY NE AND
UP INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THIS WEEKEND. AT THE SAME
TIME...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY WORK EAST AND INTO THE WATERS BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GUSTY W-NW FLOW. MARGINAL
SCA GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE SOUND...HARBOR...AND SURROUNDING BAYS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FEW SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM...WILL RESULT IN LESS
THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH ON AVERAGE THROUGH TONIGHT. RAIN
INCREASES LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH AROUND 1/2 QPF
FORECAST. LOCALIZED NUISANCE URBAN OR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE.

PERIODS OF RAIN...BRIEFLY HEAVY IN SPOTS...COULD RESULT IN
LOCALIZED NUISANCE URBAN OR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING WED THROUGH
THU.

STORM TOTALS SHOULD AVERAGE BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES PER ANALYSIS OF
OPERATIONAL MODELS...AND SREF MEMBERS. THERE COULD BE SOME LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS. THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN SHOULD NOT RESULT IN ANY
SERIOUS LIFE THREATENING OR PROPERTY FLOODING ISSUES/CONCERNS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...MALOIT/JC
MARINE...JM/DW
HYDROLOGY...JM/DW







000
FXUS61 KBOX 212031
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
431 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF WEDNESDAY WILL
TURN INTO A SOAKING RAIN LATER WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. SHOWERS WILL
LINGER FRIDAY AS THE STORM SLOWLY PULLS AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND.
MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A FEW SHOWERS WERE AFFECTING SOUTHERN NH AND NORTHEAST MA AS OF LATE
AFTERNOON...WHILE THE REST OF THE REGION WAS GENERALLY DRY.  WE
ACTUALLY HAVE SEEN SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE BREAK OUT ACROSS A GOOD
PORTION OF THE REGION...BUT THIS WILL BE TEMPORARY.

OVERALL...JUST A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING WITH THE BULK
OF THE FORCING TO OUR NORTH.  AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON...SURFACE WINDS
WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
BEGINS TO MOVE NORTHEAST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.  THIS WILL
PROBABLY ALLOW AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN... SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME DRIZZLE
TO EXPAND ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES...WHILE JUST A FEW SPOT SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTH.

LOW TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S.  WE MAY
ALSO SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
***A SOAKING RAIN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY WITH THE
  HEAVIEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS***

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY...AS MOIST ONSHORE
NORTHEAST FLOW INCREASES. THE WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN WILL WAIT
UNTIL LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND PARTICULARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE SOAKING RAIN WILL DEVELOP AS LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED
CLOSED MID LEVEL CENTERS LIFTS NORTHEAST.  A STRONG EASTERLY LOW
LEVEL JET OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND
STRONG LIFT FOR A WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN EVENT.  THE CORE OF THE
STRONGEST LOW LEVEL JET WILL SETUP ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST
ZONES...WHICH IS WHERE WE EXPECT THE HEAVIEST RAIN.  OVERALL...
EXPECT A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS MOST OF OUR REGION
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. THE EXCEPTION MIGHT BE OUR FAR NORTHEAST
ZONES...WHERE 2 TO 3 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS SEEM REASONABLE.  THERE
IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF SOME 4 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN OUR FAR
NORTHEAST ZONES...MAINLY IN ESSEX COUNTY.  IF THIS WERE TO
MATERIALIZE...WE MIGHT HAVE SOME FLOODING ISSUES DEPENDING ON HOW
FAST IT FALLS.  HOWEVER...SINCE ITS A LOW PROBABILITY AND A 3RD AND
4TH PERIOD EVENT DID NOT ISSUE ANY FLOOD HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THINGS CLOSELY...ESPECIALLY IF MODEL TRENDS
SLIDE THE AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN CURRENTLY
INDICATED.  REGARDLESS...EXPECT TYPICAL NUISANCE POOR DRAINAGE
STREET FLOODING ISSUES.

FINALLY...WE DID NOTE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY LATE WED INTO WED
NIGHT.  INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST...BUT DO
NOT EXPECT ANYTHING WIDESPREAD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
* LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL BRING RAIN THU
* LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON FRI
* MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER THIS WEEKEND

OVERALL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES WITH A COUPLE OF FEATURES AS WELL AS
SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MESOSCALE DETAILS BUT THOSE ARE TO BE
EXPECTED.  THE MAIN WEATHER STORY WILL BE THE LONG DURATION COASTAL
STORM EARLY IN THE PERIOD.  AFTER THE COASTAL STORM MOVES AWAY FROM
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...THE WEATHER DRIES OUT AND BECOMES MORE
SEASONABLE.  UPPER LEVEL FLOW FLATTENS OUT LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MORE ZONAL FLOW EXPECTED.

THURSDAY...EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN TO CONTINUE AS A COASTAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES UP THE COAST TO MAINE.  AN ADDITIONAL
HALF TO INCH AND A HALF OF RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF
THE AREA THURSDAY.  AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
AND THEN THE MARITIMES...EXPECT HIGHEST AMOUNTS TO OCCUR ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE EAST COAST OF MASSACHUSETTS...PARTICULARLY ON CAPE COD AND
CAPE ANN WHERE RAIN WILL LAST THE LONGEST.  WITH THE HIGHER PWATS
AND LOW LEVEL JET STRONGEST ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...EXPECT THE
HEAVIEST RAIN AND THE STRONGEST WINDS TO OCCUR THERE.  THE ONE
EXCEPTION COULD BE ALONG CAPE ANN WHERE THERE MAY BE SOME STRONG
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OFF THE OCEAN.  COOL...ONSHORE FLOW AND OVERCAST
SKIES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S DURING THE DAY
AND IN THE 50S OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY...COULD SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP
INTO THE MARITIMES BUT WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BRINGING
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION.  OVERALL EXPECT DRIER WEATHER
AND A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AS THE DAY GOES ON.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE
NORTHEAST BUT HERE IS WHERE WE SEE SOME DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE
ECMWF AND THE GFS.  THE ECMWF HAS A STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER
TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WHILE THE GFS HAS A MORE NEUTRAL
UPPER TROUGH.  IN BOTH MODELS LOW PRESSURE IN QUEBEC WILL PULL A
COLD FRONT THROUGH AT LEAST A PORTION OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THE
GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE FRONT AND HAS MORE MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH IT...RESULTING IN A GREATER CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH
THE FRONT.  EXPECTING DRY SEASONABLE WEATHER SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND THEN SLIDES
SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
QUEBEC MAY BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.  ANOTHER CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE
WITH THIS FRONT BUT PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  CONDITIONS GRADUALLY WILL LOWER TO
MVFR FROM EAST TO WEST TONIGHT.  WE THEN EXPECT FURTHER LOWERING TO
MAINLY IFR BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...BUT TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN.
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL EXPAND OVERNIGHT IN AREAS NORTH
OF THE MA TURNPIKE...BUT A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT
ANYWHERE.  PATCHY FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LOW
END MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.  AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN...SHOWERS
AND DRIZZLE WILL BE COMMON FOR THE FIRST PART OF WEDNESDAY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ZONES AND GRADUALLY EXPAND SOUTH.  WIDESPREAD MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED LATER WED INTO WED NIGHT.  NORTHEAST WIND
GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS DEVELOP ON THE COAST WED NIGHT...BUT NEAR 30
KNOT GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST MA COAST.

KBOS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS.

KBDL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN RAIN AND
POSSIBLY SOME ISOLATED THUNDER.  NE WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 TO 25 KTS
ACROSS S NH AND NE MA.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO VFR EXPECTED IN
CLEARING SKIES.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.  LOW PROBABILITY OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

***HIGH SEAS AND GALE FORCE NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
  NIGHT ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST ATLANTIC WATERS***

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST LATER TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.  WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE WATERS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS...EXCEPT FOR THE NORTHEAST WATERS WHERE
GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LOW
PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AS AN INTENSIFYING EASTERLY LOW LEVEL
JET DEVELOPS.  AT THE SURFACE...SHOULD SEE NORTHEAST SCA WIND GUSTS
OVERSPREAD MOST OF OUR WATERS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.  THE CORE OF
THE STRONGEST JET WILL BE NORTH OUR WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  STILL
THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF NORTHEAST 35 KNOT WIND GUSTS ACROSS
OUT FAR NORTHEAST WATERS.  THEREFORE...HAVE ISSUED A GALE WATCH FOR
THIS LOCATION.  ALSO...SEAS MAY BUILD TO AROUND 15 FEET IN OUR
EXTREME NORTHEAST ATLANTIC WATERS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. 10 TO 15 FOOT SEAS ON THE NORTHEASTERN
WATERS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON...5 TO 10 FOOT SEAS ELSEWHERE WILL DO THE SAME.
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 20 TO 25 KTS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE
DAY AS WELL.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR MOST
WATERS FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE DAY.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER.
WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE SLOWLY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  SEAS AND WINDS INCREASE GRADUALLY ON
THE SOUTHERN WATERS...BRIEFLY REACHING SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
FORTUNATELY ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES ARE RATHER LOW OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS AND THE CORE OF THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE TO OUR NORTH.
THEREFORE...THE RISK OF EVEN MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS QUITE LOW.
HOWEVER...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MINOR BEACH EROSION ALONG
THE SALISBURY AND PLUM ISLAND COASTS DURING THE HIGH TIDES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY.  NO COASTAL FLOOD HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED
THOUGH FOR THIS UPCOMING EVENT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ231>235-237.
     GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
     FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ251-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/RLG
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...FRANK/RLG
MARINE...FRANK/RLG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...FRANK




000
FXUS61 KOKX 212005
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
405 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE DELMARVA AREA...AND THEN WILL
MEANDER SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE LOW THEN TRACKS
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES LATE THIS WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES SATURDAY...THEN
CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES TONIGHT AND MOVES TO JUST
WEST OF THE REGION WITH MID LEVEL CUTOFF LOW MOVING TOWARDS THE
DELMARVA. LOW AT THE SURFACE NEAR THE DELMARVA MOVES EAST AND
OFFSHORE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

BASICALLY...SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION INTO THIS
EVENING WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION DUE TO STEEP LAPSE RATES. COULD
SEE SOME SMALL HAIL WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM. WINDS ARE
STILL LIGHT OVERALL BUT BECOME MORE NORTHERLY LATE TONIGHT. LATE
TONIGHT...EXPECTING AN OVERALL INCREASE IN SHOWER COVERAGE WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS STILL A POSSIBILITY AS MUCAPE VALUES STILL
COULD REACH 100-200 J/KG...CLOSER TO THE COAST.

LOWS WERE TAKEN FROM MAV GUIDANCE...WHICH IS RELATIVELY WARMER
THAN OTHER GUIDANCE...MID 40S TO MID 50S.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
LOW BECOMES NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED BUT STILL RESULTS IN A
SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT FOR CYCLOGENESIS TO OCCUR. THE LOW AT THE
SURFACE SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND GRADUALLY INTENSIFIES WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

WITH COLD POOL ALOFT...RAIN WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS THE
REGION...ALTHOUGH INITIALLY IT LOOKS TO BE VERY LIGHT...PICKING UP
IN INTENSITY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A GUSTY
NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

RAIN MAY BECOME INTERMITTENT AT TIMES WITH DRY INTERVALS. MODELS
ARE HAVING DIFFICULTY PINPOINTING WHERE THE MORE CONSISTENT RAIN
WILL OCCUR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STACKED LOW EAST OF LONG ISLAND THU MORNING WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT
N/NE UP INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ADDITIONAL
SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL THEN FEED INTO THE MEAN TROF OVER EASTERN
NOAM SENDING A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION SAT NIGHT.
THEREAFTER... THERE ARE SIGNS THAT A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL
ENSUE WITH THE FORECAST FOR A NEUTRAL NAO AND PNA.

RAIN WILL LINGER ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE COASTAL LOW THU INTO THU
NIGHT BEFORE CONDITIONS DRY OUT. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER
WITH THE CLEARING WITH CLOUD COVER POSSIBLY REMAINING THROUGH SAT.
HOWEVER...HAVE AIRED MORE OPTIMISTICALLY WITH CLEARING LATE FRI INTO
FRI NIGHT. AS FOR THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SAT NIGHT...HAVE
MAINTAINED A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS DO HAVE SOME
LIGHT QPF. PREFER TO SEE MORE RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY BEFORE ADDING
ANY SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FROM SUN
NIGHT INTO MON...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
MIDWEST ON TUE.

THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...GUSTY W-NW WINDS WILL PREVAIL WITH THE
STRONGEST GUSTS LOOKING TO BE ON SUN BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

TEMPS WILL MODERATE FROM BELOW NORMAL ON THU WITH THE RAIN AND CLOUD
COVER TO ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A WARM RIDGE BUILDS IN
ALOFT AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE REMAINS IN THE VICINITY TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MOSTLY VFR INTO THIS EVENING. TIMING OF MVFR CIGS AND PREVAILING
-SHRA COULD BE OFF BY A COUPLE OF HOURS. SHRA/TSTM COULD PASS
THROUGH AT ANY TERMINAL AT ANY GIVEN TIME TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT
ANY TSTM ACTIVITY TOO SPARSE TO INCLUDE IN TAFS.

ESE WINDS AROUND 10KT...BACKING TO NE THIS EVENING. COULD BE A FEW
GUSTS 15-19KT THIS AFTN.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: VCTS POSSIBLE UNTIL 19Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: VCTS POSSIBLE UNTIL 19Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: VCTS POSSIBLE UNTIL 19Z.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: VCTS POSSIBLE UNTIL 19Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS 15-19KT POSSIBLE THIS AFTN.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WED PM THROUGH THU...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN SHRA. NLY FLOW AROUND
15-20KT. GUSTS AROUND 25KT.
.FRI...VFR. NW WINDS 15-20KT. GUSTS AROUND 25 KT.
.SAT...VFR. W WINDS 10-15KT. GUSTS UP TO 20KT.
.SUN...MAINLY VFR. NW WINDS AROUND 15KT. GUSTS AROUND 25KT.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS LIGHT AND FROM THE E-SE WITH SUB SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT. WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT PRESENT WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
SOUTH OF THE WATERS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ON WED THROUGH
WED NIGHT WITH LOW FURTHER DEEPENING. SCA CONDS LIKELY BY
WED AFTERNOON ON ALL WATERS. SEAS INCREASE 5 TO 6 FT WED AND WED
NIGHT. THE HIGHER OCEAN SEAS CONTINUE INTO THU. SCA FOR OCEAN WED
THROUGH THU AND OTHER WATERS WED AFTN THROUGH WED NIGHT.

A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ON THE OCEAN
WATERS AS LOW PRESSURE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND THU LIFTS SLOWLY NE AND
UP INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THIS WEEKEND. AT THE SAME
TIME...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY WORK EAST AND INTO THE WATERS BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GUSTY W-NW FLOW. MARGINAL
SCA GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE SOUND...HARBOR...AND SURROUNDING BAYS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FEW SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM...WILL RESULT IN LESS
THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH ON AVERAGE THROUGH TONIGHT. RAIN
INCREASES LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH AROUND 1/2 QPF
FORECAST. LOCALIZED NUISANCE URBAN OR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE.

PERIODS OF RAIN...BRIEFLY HEAVY IN SPOTS...COULD RESULT IN
LOCALIZED NUISANCE URBAN OR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING WED THROUGH
THU.

STORM TOTALS SHOULD AVERAGE BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES PER ANALYSIS OF
OPERATIONAL MODELS...AND SREF MEMBERS. THERE COULD BE SOME LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS. THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN SHOULD NOT RESULT IN ANY
SERIOUS LIFE THREATENING OR PROPERTY FLOODING ISSUES/CONCERNS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JM
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JM/DW
HYDROLOGY...JM/DW







000
FXUS61 KALY 212003
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
403 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND THEN NORTHEAST TO THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY. A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN AND COOL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FROM
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST RAIN EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 4 PM EDT...ONE COMPACT SHORTWAVE HAS LIFTED NORTH OF THE
REGION...ALLOWING FOR A BRIEF LULL IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY.
HOWEVER...INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST IS
ALLOWING SHOWERS TO REDEVELOP ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SE
CATSKILL REGION. THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE NORTHWARD
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...SO SOME RAIN SHOULD REDEVELOP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL REGION...BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN VT THROUGH
THE EVENING COMMUTE.

WE WILL ALSO HAVE TO CLOSELY MONITOR CONVECTION CURRENTLY DEVELOPING
ACROSS NORTHERN NJ AND EXTREME SE NYS. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT
THE REMNANTS OF THIS COULD REACH PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY/LITCHFIELD CO...AND THE SE CATSKILLS EARLY THIS EVENING AS
WELL.

SHOWERS MAY DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESP FOR AREAS E OF THE HUDSON RIVER...AS THE BULK
OF FORCING SHIFTS TO OUR S AND W ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW...AND ALSO OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST IN THE
REGION OF STRENGTHENING WARM ADVECTION. HAVE KEPT CHC POPS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TONIGHT...EXPECTING THE GENERAL AREAL COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS TO DECREASE...ALTHOUGH AGAIN...MAY REMAIN A BIT GREATER
ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY AND EASTERN CATSKILLS.

SPOTTY DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY ALSO DEVELOP BETWEEN THE SHOWERS AS LOW
LEVELS MOISTEN...AND INTERACT WITH THE TERRAIN.

MIN TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY FALL INTO THE 40S IN MOST AREAS BY
DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY...AT THIS TIME...BARRING ANY SMALLER...UNRESOLVED
SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEVELOPING
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR SOUTH...IT APPEARS THAT LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF FORCING WILL BE PRESENT OVER OUR REGION FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST
HALF OF THE DAY. THEREFORE...HAVE INDICATED ONLY CHC POPS FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...AS MID/UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT
DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY...AND
PIVOTS BACK WESTWARD...THE AREAL COVERAGE OF RAIN AND/OR SHOWERS
SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON...ESP ACROSS SOUTHERN VT AND
THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND NW MA. FURTHER S AND W...AREAL
COVERAGE MAY ONCE AGAIN REMAIN SPOTTY INTO THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS
EVEN A POSSIBILITY OF SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOPING IN SOME
AREAS DURING THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE MOISTURE DEEPENS
AGAIN FROM NE TO SW LATE IN THE DAY. ASSUMING RAINFALL REMAINS
FAIRLY LIMITED...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 50S IN MOST
AREAS...EXCEPT FOR UPPER 40S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VT...AND THE EASTERN CATSKILLS.

WED NT-THU...THIS APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR A WIDESPREAD PERIOD OF
RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MODERATE TO PERHAPS LOCALLY HVY
POCKETS OF RAIN...ESP ACROSS HIGHER...E-FACING SLOPES ACROSS
SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA...THE SE ADIRONDACKS...AND ALSO THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS. THE BULK OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE
COMBINATION OF AN E/NE LOW LEVEL JET OF 40-50 KT TRANSLATING
WESTWARD TOWARD THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
VT/WESTERN MA...ALONG WITH DEEP LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING AROUND THE W/NW PERIPHERY OF THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL
LOW...SHOULD FAVOR SOME BANDS OF MOD-HVY RAINFALL PIVOTING
WEST...THEN SW ACROSS THE REGION LATE WED NT INTO AT LEAST THU AM.
AGAIN...AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE COMBINATION OF UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE SHOULD FAVOR
THE GREATEST RAINFALL AMTS FROM SOUTHERN VT INTO SE
ADIRONDACKS...WHERE UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL COULD OCCUR. A
SECONDARY MAX OF AROUND 2 INCHES APPEARS POSSIBLE IN THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS DUE TO UPSLOPE...WHILE A MIN SHOULD OCCUR WITHIN THE
IMMEDIATE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...WITH GENERALLY 0.5-1.5 INCHES
OCCURRING. WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE GUSTY FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST
AS WELL...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING OR EXCEEDING 35 MPH
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS...BERKSHIRES
AND TACONICS...AND POSSIBLY WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY DUE TO SOME FUNNELING EFFECTS...WHERE SOME GUSTS OF
30-35 MPH COULD ALSO OCCUR. WED NT MIN TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY FALL
INTO THE 40S IN MOST AREAS...AND MAXES MAY REMAIN BELOW 50 IN
MANY AREAS ON THU DUE TO CLOUDS...RAIN AND A PERSISTENT NORTH WIND
FUNNELING COOL AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR SOUTHWARD...WHILE WET BULB
EFFECTS OCCUR WITH THE FALLING RAINFALL. IF THE RAIN DECREASES IN
AREAL COVERAGE IN THE AFTERNOON...SLIGHTLY WARMER MAX TEMPS WOULD
THEN BE POSSIBLE.

THU NT...SOME ADDITIONAL BANDS OF SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE TO ROTATE
SOUTHWEST/SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION...ESP EARLY AND FOR AREAS NEAR
AND E OF THE HUDSON RIVER. TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER 40S IN
MOST AREAS...WITH SOME UPPER 30S POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
WITHIN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND CATSKILLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT UNSETTLED AND ENDS WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS.

ON FRIDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED IN THE
GULF OF MAINE WITH A CYCLONIC FLOW BACK ACRS THE FA. THIS WILL KEEP
CLOUDS ACRS THE REGION WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY ACRS THE NRN
TWO THIRDS OF THE FA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS ON FRIDAY
TO BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER
30S TO MID 40S.

FOR SATURDAY...DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH A FEW LINGER
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE NOSING INTO THE FA FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY. EXPECT HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY AT THIS POINT LOOK MAINLY DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE FA. HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 60 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTHWEST TO THE
LOWER 40S SOUTHEAST. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE A MILDER DAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE CAROLINAS AND A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RAIN ON RADAR ASSOCIATED WITH A SMALL UPPER IMPULSE ON THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE DEVELOPING UPPER LOW BEGINNING TO EXIT THE
KALB...KPOU AND KGFL AREAS. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE WEST
ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER SMALL UPPER IMPULSE WITHIN THE DEVELOPING
UPPER LOW ARE BUILDING EAST.  SO SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY
COULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE EVENING. VARYING COVERAGE
THROUGH THE NIGHT...SO GENERALLY VCSH TONIGHT. THEN...INCREASING
COVERAGE LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING AS THE MAIN
UPPER ENERGY TRACKS CLOSER TO THE REGION AND THE COASTAL LOW BEGINS
TO DEVELOP.

CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD HOVER JUST IN THE
VFR RANGE...JUST ABOVE 3000 FEET...BUT SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF LOW
CLOUDS...BELOW 1000 FEET ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE INCREASED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. TONIGHT...MAINLY MVFR...BUT SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS
BELOW 1000 FEET ARE POSSIBLE TOWARD SUNRISE...AND THEN THROUGH THE
MORNING AS RAIN INCREASES IN COVERAGE.

WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO EAST AT 5 TO 10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PDS RA.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. OCNL SHRA...RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND THEN NORTHEAST TO THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY. A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN AND COOL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FROM
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST RAIN EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK...EVEN THOUGH WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND
WET AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF SOUTH AND EAST THE REGION.
INTERMITTENT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FROM TODAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH
THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL EXPECTED FOR LATE WED INTO
EARLY THU.

WITH THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR...ESP LATE WED INTO EARLY THU. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO
TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA
DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL
WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD OF A FEW DAYS...SO NO WIDESPREAD
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS
THAT THE GREATEST AMTS...UP TO 2 INCHES...WOULD BE FAVORED ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...ESP SOUTHERN VT...AND
POSSIBLY THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...WITH LESS AMTS...GENERALLY 0.5 TO
1.5 INCHES...OCCURRING WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DUE TO
DOWNSLOPING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/GJM
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM








000
FXUS61 KOKX 211814
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
214 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE DELMARVA AREA...AND THEN WILL
MEANDER SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND THROUGH THE MID-WEEK PERIOD. THAT LOW
TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES LATE
THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
SATURDAY...THEN CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
OUTSIDE OF SOME SHOWERS MOVING NORTHEAST FROM COASTAL EASTERN NEW
JERSEY INTO WESTERN LONG ISLAND...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
PRESENT. POPS GRADUALLY INCREASE WEST TO EAST WITH APPROACH OF
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND DAYTIME HEATING FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS AS COLDER TEMPS EXIST ALOFT PRESENTING STEEPER LAPSE
RATES.

OTHERWISE...NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO FORECAST DATABASE
BEYOND TWEAKING TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA.

DEEP UPPER TROUGH WITH SEVERAL STRONG SHORTWAVES DEEPENS OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES AREA. MEANWHILE...SFC LOW PRES DEVELOPS OVER
THE DELMARVA AREA AND SLOWLY TRACKS TOWARDS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WATERS JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND LATE IN THE DAY.

HIGHEST POPS WILL BE OVER WESTERN ZONES AND AREAS CLOSER TO THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE MILD...TOPPING OFF IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70.
TEMPS COULD BE A BIT WARMER IF PARTS OF THE CWA BECOME DRY SLOTTED
AND SKIES BREAK UP MORE THAN FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TONIGHT...BUT RAIN BECOMES LIKELY OVER
WESTERN ZONES AS THE LOW DEEPENS. RAIN THEN CONTINUES THROUGH THE
DAY WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE DELMARVA...AND
BECOMES A NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED LOW WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
SFC LOW. WILL BUMP UP POPS TO LIKELY/CATEGORICAL ON WEDNESDAY AS
THAT LOW MEANDERS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND.

MUCH COOLER ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
STACKED LOW PRESSURE JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WILL SLOWLY DRIFT
NORTH/NORTHEASTWARD LATE THIS WEEK. SHORTWAVE ENERGY OUT OF
CENTRAL CANADA DIVES SOUTHEAST AND MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND. SOME DIFFERENCES ARE NOTED WITH THE STRENGTH
OF THIS SHORTWAVE. UPSTREAM PACIFIC NW SHORTWAVE WILL KICK OUT
EASTERN TROUGH...RESULTING IN RIDGING BETWEEN THE TWO TROUGHS
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT THE SURFACE...SOME MODEL PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES NOTED WITH
REGARD TO THE SFC LOW PRESSURE. GENERALLY EXPECT SFC LOW JUST
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WED NIGHT TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD
BETWEEN EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK THURSDAY.
THE LOW WILL TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST LATE IN THE WEEK TOWARD THE
CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES THIS WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO
MOVE THROUGH LATE SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE RAIN WED
NIGHT...WITH LOW CATEGORICAL POPS OR LIKELY POPS INTO THURSDAY AS
THE STACKED LOW IS SLOW TO MOVE OUT. BANDED PRECIP
LIKELY...PROVIDING ADDITIONAL MEASURABLE QPF MOST LOCATIONS.

SOME SFC BASED INSTABILITY IS NOTED CLOSER TO THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
LOW...OR EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY PER
NAM/GFS. WEAK MID LEVEL INSTABILITY IS PROGGED BY THESE MODELS AS
WELL. CANNOT RULE THUNDER...BUT THIS SHOULD BE TOO ISOLATED TO
MENTION.

DRY WEATHER EVENTUALLY RETURNS FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS THE STORM
SYSTEM DEPARTS.

DAYTIME TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL THURSDAY DUE TO
CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF RAIN. THEREAFTER...TEMPS LIKELY REBOUND
CLOSER TO...IF NOT SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. SUNDAY COULD BE THE
COOLEST DAY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WHILE TEMPS HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO WARM ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK IN SW FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE REMAINS IN THE VICINITY TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MOSTLY VFR INTO THIS EVENING. TIMING OF MVFR CIGS AND PREVAILING
-SHRA COULD BE OFF BY A COUPLE OF HOURS. SHRA/TSTM COULD PASS
THROUGH AT ANY TERMINAL AT ANY GIVEN TIME TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT
ANY TSTM ACTIVITY TOO SPARSE TO INCLUDE IN TAFS.

ESE WINDS AROUND 10KT...BACKING TO NE THIS EVENING. COULD BE A FEW
GUSTS 15-19KT THIS AFTN.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: VCTS POSSIBLE UNTIL 19Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: VCTS POSSIBLE UNTIL 19Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: VCTS POSSIBLE UNTIL 19Z.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: VCTS POSSIBLE UNTIL 19Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS 15-19KT POSSIBLE THIS AFTN.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WED PM THROUGH THU...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN SHRA. NLY FLOW AROUND
15-20KT. GUSTS AROUND 25KT.
.FRI...VFR. NW WINDS 15-20KT. GUSTS AROUND 25 KT.
.SAT...VFR. W WINDS 10-15KT. GUSTS UP TO 20KT.
.SUN...MAINLY VFR. NW WINDS AROUND 15KT. GUSTS AROUND 25KT.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE...WITH WAVE HEIGHTS OF 3 TO 4 FT. WINDS
LIGHT AND FROM THE E-SE. MAINLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS INTO TONIGHT AS
LOW PRES DEVELOPS SOUTH OF THE WATERS. PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
ON WED...AND SCA CONDS LIKELY BY AFTERNOON. SEAS INCREASE 5 TO 6
FT WED AND WED NIGHT. A GENERAL SCA FOR WED AND WED NIGHT ACROSS
THE OCEAN ZONES REMAINS IN EFFECT.

GUSTY NORTH WINDS WED NIGHT WILL TURN TOWARD THE N/NW THURSDAY AS
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND MAKES SLOW
PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD. GUSTY NW WINDS PERSIST FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THE WINDS MAY BRIEFLY BACK TO THE WEST LATE SAT AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT.

ROUGH SEA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY IMPROVE LATE IN THE
WEEK AND INTO SATURDAY. WESTERLY FETCH THOUGH LIKELY RESULTS IN
HIGHER SEAS FURTHER EAST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FEW SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM...WILL RESULT IN LESS
THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH ON AVERAGE THROUGH TONIGHT. RAIN
INCREASES LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH
QPF LIKELY. LOCALIZED NUISANCE URBAN OR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE.

PERIODS OF RAIN...BRIEFLY HEAVY IN SPOTS...COULD RESULT IN
LOCALIZED NUISANCE URBAN OR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING WED NIGHT AND
THURSDAY.

STORM TOTALS SHOULD AVERAGE BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES PER ANALYSIS OF
OPERATIONAL MODELS...AND SREF MEMBERS. THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN SHOULD
NOT RESULT IN ANY SERIOUS LIFE THREATENING OR PROPERTY FLOODING
ISSUES/CONCERNS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPS/PW
NEAR TERM...JM/MPS/PW
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JM/MPS/PW
HYDROLOGY...MPS/PW









000
FXUS61 KBOX 211759
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
158 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH LINGERING SHOWERS FRIDAY AS THE STORM SLOWLY PULLS
AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND. MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND
WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

155 PM UPDATE...

CLUSTER OF RAIN SHOWERS WAS MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MA AND INTO A
PORTION OF RHODE ISLAND AS OF MID AFTERNOON.  APPEARS TO IN A NARROW
AREA OF LOW LEVEL SURFACE CONVERGENCE COMBINED WITH SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY TO GENERATE THESE SHOWERS.  SOME OF THESE SHOWERS WERE
RESULTING IN BRIEF HEAVY RAIN.  SURFACE WINDS ARE RATHER LIGHT
NORTHWEST OF I-95 AND FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH SOUTHEAST
OF THAT AREA.

THIS CONVERGENCE ZONE SHOULD HANG AROUND FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE
WEAKENING.  WE MAY SEE THE MAIN CLUSTER OF SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MA GRADUALLY LIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEFORE WEAKENING BY EARLY
EVENING.  ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION...A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY.

TEMPS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S ACROSS
SOUTHERN NH...TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S SOUTH OF THE PIKE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...

DRY SLOT OVERSPREADS THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF
DRIZZLE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BECOMES TRAPPED BENEATH DRY AIR ALOFT.
FARTHER INLAND ACROSS SOUTHERN NH AND WESTERN MA A STEADIER RAIN IS
POSSIBLE AS COMMA HEAD RAINS MAY CLIP THIS REGION WHILE BULK OF RAIN
IS CONFINED TO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

AS FOR TEMPS...NOT MUCH OF A DROP OFF GIVEN ONSHORE FLOW/CLOUDS AND
LIGHT PRECIP.

WEDNESDAY...

TRAILING SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND THEN
TAKES AIM AT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATER IN THE DAY. STRONG SYNOPTIC
SCALE FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE AND RESULTS IN COASTAL LOW OFF NJ
COAST TO INTENSIFY. THUS SLUG OF HEAVY RAIN LIKELY TO MOVE ONSHORE
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE DAY. IN ADDITION AS DRY SLOT
APPROACHES THETA-E LAPSE RATES BEGIN TO DECREASE. THUS EMBEDDED
CONVECTION POSSIBLE AND WOULD ENHANCE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL. THIS
WILL INCREASE THE RISK URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING AND MAY IMPACT
THE EVENING COMMUTE.

TEMPS SIMILAR AS TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE L60S OVER SOUTHEAST MA AND
COOLING INTO THE 50S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

WITH FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MID TERM REGARDING A
SLOW MEANDERING AND STACKED LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVING JUST TO THE S
OF SRN NEW ENGLAND...A GENERAL CONSENSUS BLEND WILL BE USED AS A
BASELINE FOR THIS FORECAST. FOR THE REMAINDER...TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK...THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT A BIT OF A
HIGHER AMPLIFICATION BIAS /SOMEWHAT TYPICAL OF THIS MODEL/. WHILE
OTHER OPERATIONAL MODELS AND SEVERAL OF IT/S OWN ENSEMBLES ARE
MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH A SECONDARY KICKER WAVE AND HIGH PRES.
THEREFORE...WILL ADD LESS WEIGHT TO THE ECMWF BY THE LATE WEEK AND
WEEKEND-EARLY NEXT WEEK TIME FRAME.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE THE KEY FEATURE INITIALLY IS A SLOW MOVING
CUTOFF LOW PRES WITH ATTENDANT OCCLUDING SFC LOW THROUGH LATE IN
THE WEEK. IT/S NOT UNTIL A KICKER WAVE /DEEPENING WAVE EJECTING
OUT OF THE CANADIAN W/ MOVES IN ON SAT THAT THE LOW PRES MOVES
FULLY INTO THE MARITIMES AND ALLOWS DRIER AIR TO FULLY BUILD IN.
THEREFORE...EXPECT THE WET/GRAY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRI
WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT FROM THEN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DETAILS...

WED NIGHT INTO THU...
AT THIS POINT ALL FEATURES LINE UP FOR THE POTENTIALLY WETTEST
PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. IN ESSENCE A REINFORCING LLJ /ABOUT 40+ KT
MAINLY N OF THE BOX CWA/ MOVES IN COMBINED WITH UPPER LVL DRY SLOT
AND NEAR 6.0+ C/KM LAPSE RATES. THEREFORE...LOOKS LIKE A DECENT
SETUP FOR CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WITH THIS LLJ PARTICULARLY BETWEEN
00Z AND 12Z ON THU. WITH MODEST PWATS UP TO 1.5 INCHES /ABOUT 2+
STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL/. COULD SEE POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAIN
THROUGH THE PERIOD...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
ON THU AS THE LLJ AND DRY SLOT SHIFT N. RIGHT NOW THE PRIMARY
THREAT WOULD BE THE TYPICAL URBAN AREAS WHERE DRAINAGE IS POOR FOR
ANY NUISANCE FLOODING...BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS OVER
THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. OTHERWISE...THE GRAY/DAMP CONDITIONS
CONTINUE WITH ONSHORE FLOW AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE/CLOUD COVER. DUE
TO THIS CLOUD COVER...SUSPECT THAT LOWS REMAIN MAINLY IN THE 50S
AND HIGHS ONLY RISE INTO THE MID 50S AND LOW 60S.

FRI...
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AS THE UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OF
CANADA BEGINS TO FORCE THE UPPER LVL CUTOFF TO THE E AND WEAKENS
IT. STILL ENOUGH UPPER LVL COOL AIR AND MOISTURE TO SUPPORT A FEW
MORE SHOWERS. SO THE GRAY/WET CONDITIONS CONTINUE...BUT WITH A
MORE N COMPONENT TO THE FLOW...THESE SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO BE
FEWER AND FARTHER BETWEEN. TEMPS A BIT WARMER...MAINLY UPPER 50S
TO MID 60S.

SAT AND SUN...
SFC COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION...WHICH SHOULD FINALLY RELEASE THE REGION FROM
THE GRIPS OF THE CUTOFF. AT THIS POINT WITH DRIER AIR MOVING
IN...MAY ONLY SEE CLOUD COVER WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION MAINLY SAT NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUN. THE DIFFERENCES IN AMPLIFICATION BETWEEN MODELS MAKE
IT DIFFICULT TO TELL EXACTLY HOW DEEP THE COLD AIR GETS SAT NIGHT
INTO SUN...BUT WITH FULL MIXING HIGHS OF LOW-MID 60S ARE NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION WITH LOWS FALLING BACK INTO THE 40S.

MON AND TUE...
HIGH PRES BUILDS IN ACROSS THE AREA WITH DRIER AIR AND MOSTLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS. TEMPS MAY BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS...IF NOT
SLIGHTLY ABOVE DEPENDING ON HOW DEEP THE COOL AIR BECOMES AT THIS
POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

THIS AFTERNOON...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  AREAS OF MARGINAL MVFR CIGS
ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND WITH MAINLY VFR ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
CLUSTER OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS WERE MAINLY ACROSS A SMALL
PORTION OF RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST MA.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  CONDITIONS GRADUALLY WILL LOWER TO
MVFR AND THEN MAINLY IFR BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.  TIMING REMAINS
UNCERTAIN.  AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS
NORTH OF THE PIKE...BUT A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT
ANYWHERE.  PATCHY FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LOW
END MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.  AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND
DRIZZLE WILL BE COMMON FOR THE FIRST PART OF WEDNESDAY.  WIDESPREAD
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED LATER WED INTO WED NIGHT.  NORTHEAST
WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS DEVELOP ON THE COAST WED NIGHT...BUT
NEAR 30 KNOT GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST MA.

KBOS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS.

KBDL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
MAINLY IFR/MVFR WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE. LOW CIGS AND
VSBYS IN HEAVIER RAIN AND FOG. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER THROUGH
THE PERIOD. CHANCE FOR LLWS ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THU
MORNING WITH UP TO 40 KT POSSIBLE AT AROUND 2KFT ESPECIALLY
TERMINALS N OF THE MASS PIKE.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
IMPROVING TO VFR. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS ON
FRIDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN SOUTHERN NH AND EASTERN MASS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WED/...

TODAY...

STRONGEST SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER THE EASTERN MA
WATERS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. THUS SCA POSTED FOR THAT AREA.
HEAVY RAIN WITH LOW RISK OF T-STORMS ACROSS THIS AREA. ELSEWHERE
LIGHTER WINDS AND SHOWERS.

TONIGHT...

EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS. LOW RISK OF 25 KT OVER CAPE ANN WATERS.
VSBY REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE.

WEDNESDAY...

HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE EMBEDDED THUNDER MOVES SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE WATERS AND THEN ONSHORE LATE IN THE DAY.
NORTHEAST WINDS 15-20 KT. VSBY REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG AND HEAVY
RAIN LATE IN THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WED NIGHT INTO THU...
MAINLY E-NE FLOW ALONG THE WATERS WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU. THEN
SHIFTING TO NW DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THU. A FEW WIND
GUSTS MAY APPROACH GALE FORCE WED NIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE N
WATERS...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ELSEWHERE. THE
WINDS DROP OFF AS THEY SHIFT THU...BUT THEN GUST AGAIN TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATE DAY THU. OTHERWISE...SEAS BUILD WED
NIGHT INTO THU MORNING WITH AT LEAST 5-9 FT SEAS POSSIBLE. SOME
HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU MORNING.

FRI...
LOW PRES MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE...WINDS AND SEAS MAY STILL REACH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS DURING THE DAY FRI AND INTO FRI
NIGHT...BUT EXPECT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT.

SATURDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ250-254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ255-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...FRANK/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KALY 211721
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
121 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT. IT WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
WEDNESDAY...AND THEN NORTHEAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY.
A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND INTERMITTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A COMPACT SHORTWAVE TRANSLATING NORTHWARD ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NYS
HAS ALLOWED A BAND OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN TO PERSIST ALONG ITS
EASTERN FLANK FROM THE SE CATSKILLS...INTO THE CAPITAL
REGION...AND SW VT/NW MA. AS THIS IMPULSE CONTINUES TO MOVE
FARTHER NORTH...WE EXPECT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/RAIN TO
GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM S TO N THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THIS MAY
TAKE SOME TIME...SO OCCASIONAL SHOWERS LOOK TO CONTINUE THROUGH
AROUND MID AFTERNOON.

GIVEN THE CLOUDS AND RAIN COOLED AIR...AND A DEVELOPING LIGHT
NORTH WIND...WE DO NOT EXPECT TEMPS TO CLIMB MUCH ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO
CT...WHICH IS ALREADY IN THE LOWER 60S. HERE...TEMPS MAY STILL
CLIMB A FEW MORE DEGREES BEFORE WINDS SHIFT MORE INTO THE N AND
COOLING DEVELOPS. ELSEWHERE...MAX TEMPS SHOULD ONLY REACH THE MID
50S IN MOST VALLEY AREAS...PERHAPS A BIT WARMER IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...AND MID 40S TO LOWER 50S ELSEWHERE.

OCCASIONAL BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS COULD DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON
ONCE AGAIN ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN AREAS...AND ALSO INTERMITTENTLY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SCHOHARIE CO...WHERE SOME MID LEVEL
DRYING/SUBSIDENCE...AND DOWNSLOPING HAVE ALREADY ALLOWED FOR SOME
OCCASIONAL BREAKS OF SUN TO DEVELOP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH
A SURFACE LOW ALSO DEVELOPING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. AS THIS
EVOLUTION TAKES PLACE...THERE WILL BE A DROP OFF IN PCPN ACTIVITY
TONIGHT AND HAVE FORECAST MAINLY CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FURTHER OUT TO SEA...THE FORECAST
AREA WILL GET INTO THE WARM CONVEYOR BAND OF PCPN AS ATLANTIC
MOISTURE SURGES WESTWARD ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW. AS A
RESULT...PCPN WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AGAIN DURING WEDNESDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HAVE RAISED POPS TO CATEGORICAL BY
LATER WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AND CONTINUE TO FORECAST
CATEGORICAL POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE ON
THURSDAY...HAVE LOWERED POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA...BUT CATEGORICAL POPS CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHEAST
HALF.

LOWS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS WILL BE IN THE 40S. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT ON THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A VERTICALLY STACKED
LOW STILL CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF CAPE COD...WITH A SPRAWLING
CYCLONIC NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING TO BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE
REGION. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE NORTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WHERE
LIKELY POPS ARE MENTIONED. MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY START TO PULL EASTWARD AND OUT TO SEA
ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...OUR REGION WILL STILL BE UNDER A CYCLONIC FLOW
REGIME SO SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. IT WILL CONTINUE TO
BE COOL AND DAMP...WITH OVERCAST SKIES RESULTING IN NOT MUCH
POTENTIAL FOR WARMING.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL DECREASE FURTHER FRIDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH A
FEW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY
AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE WESTERLY. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS
TO THE WEEKEND FORECAST...AS THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW FAR SOUTH AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM SOUTHERN CANADA DIGS OVER THE
NORTHEAST CONUS. THE GFS IS THE MOST OPTIMISTIC IN TERMS OF KEEPING
THE BRUNT OF THE TROUGH NORTH OF THE REGION WITH MILD TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER...THE ECMWF AND THE CMC TO AN EXTENT...DEPICTS THE TROUGH
DIGGING FARTHER SOUTH AND ALLOWING FOR COLDER AIR TO WORK INTO THE
REGION WITH SOME MOUNTAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN A DEVELOPING CYCLONIC
FLOW REGIME.

SO BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THE WEEKEND HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR WARMER THAN
NORMAL TEMPS AND MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE...OR COOLER TEMPS AND
MORE CLOUDS. WE WILL HAVE TO SEE WHICH WAY THE MODELS TREND AS THE
WEEKEND NEARS.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RAIN ON RADAR ASSOCIATED WITH A SMALL UPPER IMPULSE ON THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE DEVELOPING UPPER LOW BEGINNING TO EXIT THE
KALB...KPOU AND KGFL AREAS. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE WEST
ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER SMALL UPPER IMPULSE WITHIN THE DEVELOPING
UIPPER LOW ARE BUILDING EAST.  SO SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY
COULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE EVENING. VARYING COVERAGE
THROUGH THE NIGHT...SO GENERALLY VCSH TONIGHT. THEN...INCREASING
COVERAGE LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH TOMMORROW MORNING AS THE MAIN
UPPER ENERGY TRACKS CLOSER TO THE REGION AND THE COASTAL LOW
BEGINS TO DEVELOP.

CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD HOVER JUST IN THE
VFR RANGE...JUST ABOVE 3000 FEET...BUT SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF LOW
CLOUDS...BELOW 1000 FEET ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE INCREASED LOW
LEVE MOISTURE. TONIGHT...MAINLY MVFR...BUT SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS
BELOW 1000 FEET ARE POSSIBLE TOWARD SUNRISE...AND THEN THROUGH THE
MORNING AS RAIN INCREASES IN COVERAGE.

WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO EAST AT 5 TO 10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT. IT WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
WEDNESDAY...AND THEN NORTHEAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY.
A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND INTERMITTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...EVEN
THOUGH WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF SOUTH AND EAST THE REGION. INTERMITTENT RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED FROM TODAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST
RAINFALL EXPECTED FOR LATE WED INTO EARLY THU.

WITH THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR...ESP LATE WED INTO EARLY THU. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO
TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA
DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL
WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD OF A FEW DAYS...SO NO WIDESPREAD
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS
THAT THE GREATEST AMTS WOULD BE FAVORED ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...ESP SOUTHERN VT...AND POSSIBLY THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS...WITH LESS AMTS OCCURRING WITHIN THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY DUE TO DOWNSLOPING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/GJM
NEAR TERM...KL/GJM/NAS
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM








000
FXUS61 KALY 211659
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1259 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT. IT WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
WEDNESDAY...AND THEN NORTHEAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY.
A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND INTERMITTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A COMPACT SHORTWAVE TRANSLATING NORTHWARD ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NYS
HAS ALLOWED A BAND OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN TO PERSIST ALONG ITS
EASTERN FLANK FROM THE SE CATSKILLS...INTO THE CAPITAL
REGION...AND SW VT/NW MA. AS THIS IMPULSE CONTINUES TO MOVE
FARTHER NORTH...WE EXPECT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/RAIN TO
GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM S TO N THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THIS MAY
TAKE SOME TIME...SO OCCASIONAL SHOWERS LOOK TO CONTINUE THROUGH
AROUND MID AFTERNOON.

GIVEN THE CLOUDS AND RAIN COOLED AIR...AND A DEVELOPING LIGHT
NORTH WIND...WE DO NOT EXPECT TEMPS TO CLIMB MUCH ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO
CT...WHICH IS ALREADY IN THE LOWER 60S. HERE...TEMPS MAY STILL
CLIMB A FEW MORE DEGREES BEFORE WINDS SHIFT MORE INTO THE N AND
COOLING DEVELOPS. ELSEWHERE...MAX TEMPS SHOULD ONLY REACH THE MID
50S IN MOST VALLEY AREAS...PERHAPS A BIT WARMER IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...AND MID 40S TO LOWER 50S ELSEWHERE.

OCCASIONAL BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS COULD DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON
ONCE AGAIN ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN AREAS...AND ALSO INTERMITTENTLY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SCHOHARIE CO...WHERE SOME MID LEVEL
DRYING/SUBSIDENCE...AND DOWNSLOPING HAVE ALREADY ALLOWED FOR SOME
OCCASIONAL BREAKS OF SUN TO DEVELOP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH
A SURFACE LOW ALSO DEVELOPING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. AS THIS
EVOLUTION TAKES PLACE...THERE WILL BE A DROP OFF IN PCPN ACTIVITY
TONIGHT AND HAVE FORECAST MAINLY CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FURTHER OUT TO SEA...THE FORECAST
AREA WILL GET INTO THE WARM CONVEYOR BAND OF PCPN AS ATLANTIC
MOISTURE SURGES WESTWARD ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW. AS A
RESULT...PCPN WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AGAIN DURING WEDNESDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HAVE RAISED POPS TO CATEGORICAL BY
LATER WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AND CONTINUE TO FORECAST
CATEGORICAL POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE ON
THURSDAY...HAVE LOWERED POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA...BUT CATEGORICAL POPS CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHEAST
HALF.

LOWS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS WILL BE IN THE 40S. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT ON THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A VERTICALLY STACKED
LOW STILL CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF CAPE COD...WITH A SPRAWLING
CYCLONIC NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING TO BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE
REGION. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE NORTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WHERE
LIKELY POPS ARE MENTIONED. MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY START TO PULL EASTWARD AND OUT TO SEA
ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...OUR REGION WILL STILL BE UNDER A CYCLONIC FLOW
REGIME SO SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. IT WILL CONTINUE TO
BE COOL AND DAMP...WITH OVERCAST SKIES RESULTING IN NOT MUCH
POTENTIAL FOR WARMING.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL DECREASE FURTHER FRIDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH A
FEW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY
AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE WESTERLY. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS
TO THE WEEKEND FORECAST...AS THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW FAR SOUTH AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM SOUTHERN CANADA DIGS OVER THE
NORTHEAST CONUS. THE GFS IS THE MOST OPTIMISTIC IN TERMS OF KEEPING
THE BRUNT OF THE TROUGH NORTH OF THE REGION WITH MILD TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER...THE ECMWF AND THE CMC TO AN EXTENT...DEPICTS THE TROUGH
DIGGING FARTHER SOUTH AND ALLOWING FOR COLDER AIR TO WORK INTO THE
REGION WITH SOME MOUNTAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN A DEVELOPING CYCLONIC
FLOW REGIME.

SO BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THE WEEKEND HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR WARMER THAN
NORMAL TEMPS AND MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE...OR COOLER TEMPS AND
MORE CLOUDS. WE WILL HAVE TO SEE WHICH WAY THE MODELS TREND AS THE
WEEKEND NEARS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS TODAY...AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY AND INTO THIS
EVENING...AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE REGION. WILL MENTION PREVAILING SHOWERS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH IT WILL NOT BE RAINING THE ENTIRE TIME AS
BATCHES OF SHOWERS WILL PERIODICALLY MOVE THROUGH.

FLYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN VFR RANGE THROUGH MUCH OF
TODAY...WITH CIGS ONLY GRADUALLY DECREASING. BY THIS EVENING THERE
WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR MVFR CONDITIONS AT THE TERMINALS WITH
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS CONTINUING.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING NORTH-NORTHEAST AROUND 5
KTS BY THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT. IT WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
WEDNESDAY...AND THEN NORTHEAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY.
A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND INTERMITTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...EVEN
THOUGH WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF SOUTH AND EAST THE REGION. INTERMITTENT RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED FROM TODAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST
RAINFALL EXPECTED FOR LATE WED INTO EARLY THU.

WITH THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR...ESP LATE WED INTO EARLY THU. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO
TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA
DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL
WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD OF A FEW DAYS...SO NO WIDESPREAD
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS
THAT THE GREATEST AMTS WOULD BE FAVORED ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...ESP SOUTHERN VT...AND POSSIBLY THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS...WITH LESS AMTS OCCURRING WITHIN THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY DUE TO DOWNSLOPING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/GJM
NEAR TERM...KL/GJM/NAS
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM








000
FXUS61 KOKX 211502 CCA
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1101 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE DELMARVA AREA TODAY...AND THEN WILL
MEANDER SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND THROUGH THE MID-WEEK PERIOD. THAT LOW
TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES LATE
THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
SATURDAY...THEN CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ADJUSTED DOWN WITH POPS AND CONFINED THEM TO JUST LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY...INTERIOR NORTHEAST NJ...AND INTERIOR SOUTHWEST CT BUT
SHOWERS FOR THE REST OF TODAY WILL BE SCATTERED AND ISOLATED
FARTHER TO THE EAST...MAINLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. OVERALL...MUCH
OF THE TIME BETWEEN LATE THIS MORNING AND MID AFTERNOON SHOULD
REMAIN DRY. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER REMARKABLE CHANGES MADE WITH
OTHER PARAMETERS WITH THE FORECAST MAINLY ON TRACK. MORE SUNSHINE
EXPECTED ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND COASTAL SECTIONS AND LEANED MORE
WITH THIS TREND IN THE CLOUD COVERAGE FORECAST.

DEEP UPPER TROUGH WITH SEVERAL STRONG SHORTWAVES DEEPENS OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES AREA. MEANWHILE...SFC LOW PRES DEVELOPS OVER
THE DELMARVA AREA AND SLOWLY TRACKS TOWARDS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WATERS JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND LATE IN THE DAY.

CAN EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY...BUT NOT MUCH
PRECIP IS EXPECTED. A FEW ISOLATED TSTMS POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON DUE TO STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. AS SUCH...WOULD
EXPECT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE OVER WESTERN
ZONES AND AREAS CLOSER TO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. THERE COULD EVEN
BE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS FOR A PORTION OF THE AREA.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE MILD...TOPPING OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
TEMPS COULD BE A BIT WARMER IF PARTS OF THE CWA BECOME DRY SLOTTED
AND SKIES BREAK UP MORE THAN FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TONIGHT...BUT RAIN BECOMES LIKELY OVER
WESTERN ZONES AS THE LOW DEEPENS. RAIN THEN CONTINUES THROUGH THE
DAY WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE DELMARVA...AND
BECOMES A NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED LOW WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
SFC LOW. WILL BUMP UP POPS TO LIKELY/CATEGORICAL ON WEDNESDAY AS
THAT LOW MEANDERS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND.

MUCH COOLER ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
STACKED LOW PRESSURE JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WILL SLOWLY DRIFT
NORTH/NORTHEASTWARD LATE THIS WEEK. SHORTWAVE ENERGY OUT OF
CENTRAL CANADA DIVES SOUTHEAST AND MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND. SOME DIFFERENCES ARE NOTED WITH THE STRENGTH
OF THIS SHORTWAVE. UPSTREAM PACIFIC NW SHORTWAVE WILL KICK OUT
EASTERN TROUGH...RESULTING IN RIDGING BETWEEN THE TWO TROUGHS
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT THE SURFACE...SOME MODEL PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES NOTED WITH
REGARD TO THE SFC LOW PRESSURE. GENERALLY EXPECT SFC LOW JUST
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WED NIGHT TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD
BETWEEN EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK THURSDAY.
THE LOW WILL TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST LATE IN THE WEEK TOWARD THE
CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES THIS WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO
MOVE THROUGH LATE SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE RAIN WED
NIGHT...WITH LOW CATEGORICAL POPS OR LIKELY POPS INTO THURSDAY AS
THE STACKED LOW IS SLOW TO MOVE OUT. BANDED PRECIP
LIKELY...PROVIDING ADDITIONAL MEASURABLE QPF MOST LOCATIONS.

SOME SFC BASED INSTABILITY IS NOTED CLOSER TO THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
LOW...OR EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY PER
NAM/GFS. WEAK MID LEVEL INSTABILITY IS PROGGED BY THESE MODELS AS
WELL. CANNOT RULE THUNDER...BUT THIS SHOULD BE TOO ISOLATED TO
MENTION.

DRY WEATHER EVENTUALLY RETURNS FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS THE STORM
SYSTEM DEPARTS.

DAYTIME TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL THURSDAY DUE TO
CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF RAIN. THEREAFTER...TEMPS LIKELY REBOUND
CLOSER TO...IF NOT SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. SUNDAY COULD BE THE
COOLEST DAY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WHILE TEMPS HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO WARM ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK IN SW FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE REMAINS IN THE VICINITY TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MOSTLY VFR DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. TIMING OF MVFR CIGS AND
FREQUENT -SHRA COULD BE OFF BY A COUPLE OF HOURS...MORE LIKELY THE
CASE THAT IT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO OCCUR TOO EARLY. BRIEF/SPOTTY
SHRA OR TSTM COULD PASS THROUGH AT ANY TERMINAL AT ANY GIVEN TIME
TODAY AND TONIGHT. ANY TSTM ACTIVITY TOO SPARSE TO INCLUDE IN TAFS.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...PROBABLY FAVORING ESE.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR SHOWERS LEADING TO
WET RUNWAYS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR SHOWERS LEADING TO WET
RUNWAYS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR SHOWERS LEADING TO WET
RUNWAYS.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR SHOWERS LEADING TO WET
RUNWAYS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR SHOWERS LEADING TO WET
RUNWAYS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR SHOWERS LEADING TO WET
RUNWAYS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WED THROUGH THU...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN RAIN. NLY FLOW 10 TO 15
KT G20-25KT.
.FRI...IMPROVING CONDS. NW WINDS 15-20 KT WITH 20-25 KT GUSTS.
.SAT...VFR. NW WINDS G20KT.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE...WITH WAVE HEIGHTS OF 3 TO 4 FT. WINDS
LIGHT AND FROM THE E-SE. MAINLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS INTO TONIGHT AS
LOW PRES DEVELOPS SOUTH OF THE WATERS. PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
ON WED...AND SCA CONDS LIKELY BY AFTERNOON. SEAS INCREASE 5 TO 6
FT WED AND WED NIGHT. SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS HAS BEEN REPLACED
WITH A GENERAL SCA FOR WED AND WED NIGHT ACROSS THE OCEAN ZONES.

GUSTY NORTH WINDS WED NIGHT WILL TURN TOWARD THE N/NW THURSDAY AS
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND MAKES SLOW
PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD. GUSTY NW WINDS PERSIST FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THE WINDS MAY BRIEFLY BACK TO THE WEST LATE SAT AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT.

ROUGH SEA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY IMPROVE LATE IN THE
WEEK AND INTO SATURDAY. WESTERLY FETCH THOUGH LIKELY RESULTS IN
HIGHER SEAS FURTHER EAST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FEW SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM...WILL RESULT IN LESS
THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH ON AVERAGE THROUGH TONIGHT. RAIN
INCREASES LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH
QPF LIKELY. LOCALIZED NUISANCE URBAN OR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE.

PERIODS OF RAIN...BRIEFLY HEAVY IN SPOTS...COULD RESULT IN
LOCALIZED NUISANCE URBAN OR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING WED NIGHT AND
THURSDAY.

STORM TOTALS SHOULD AVERAGE BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES PER ANALYSIS OF
OPERATIONAL MODELS...AND SREF MEMBERS. THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN SHOULD
NOT RESULT IN ANY SERIOUS LIFE THREATENING OR PROPERTY FLOODING
ISSUES/CONCERNS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPS/PW
NEAR TERM...JM/MPS/PW
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JM/MPS/PW
HYDROLOGY...MPS/PW








000
FXUS61 KOKX 211502 CCA
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1101 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE DELMARVA AREA TODAY...AND THEN WILL
MEANDER SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND THROUGH THE MID-WEEK PERIOD. THAT LOW
TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES LATE
THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
SATURDAY...THEN CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ADJUSTED DOWN WITH POPS AND CONFINED THEM TO JUST LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY...INTERIOR NORTHEAST NJ...AND INTERIOR SOUTHWEST CT BUT
SHOWERS FOR THE REST OF TODAY WILL BE SCATTERED AND ISOLATED
FARTHER TO THE EAST...MAINLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. OVERALL...MUCH
OF THE TIME BETWEEN LATE THIS MORNING AND MID AFTERNOON SHOULD
REMAIN DRY. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER REMARKABLE CHANGES MADE WITH
OTHER PARAMETERS WITH THE FORECAST MAINLY ON TRACK. MORE SUNSHINE
EXPECTED ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND COASTAL SECTIONS AND LEANED MORE
WITH THIS TREND IN THE CLOUD COVERAGE FORECAST.

DEEP UPPER TROUGH WITH SEVERAL STRONG SHORTWAVES DEEPENS OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES AREA. MEANWHILE...SFC LOW PRES DEVELOPS OVER
THE DELMARVA AREA AND SLOWLY TRACKS TOWARDS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WATERS JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND LATE IN THE DAY.

CAN EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY...BUT NOT MUCH
PRECIP IS EXPECTED. A FEW ISOLATED TSTMS POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON DUE TO STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. AS SUCH...WOULD
EXPECT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE OVER WESTERN
ZONES AND AREAS CLOSER TO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. THERE COULD EVEN
BE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS FOR A PORTION OF THE AREA.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE MILD...TOPPING OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
TEMPS COULD BE A BIT WARMER IF PARTS OF THE CWA BECOME DRY SLOTTED
AND SKIES BREAK UP MORE THAN FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TONIGHT...BUT RAIN BECOMES LIKELY OVER
WESTERN ZONES AS THE LOW DEEPENS. RAIN THEN CONTINUES THROUGH THE
DAY WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE DELMARVA...AND
BECOMES A NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED LOW WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
SFC LOW. WILL BUMP UP POPS TO LIKELY/CATEGORICAL ON WEDNESDAY AS
THAT LOW MEANDERS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND.

MUCH COOLER ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
STACKED LOW PRESSURE JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WILL SLOWLY DRIFT
NORTH/NORTHEASTWARD LATE THIS WEEK. SHORTWAVE ENERGY OUT OF
CENTRAL CANADA DIVES SOUTHEAST AND MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND. SOME DIFFERENCES ARE NOTED WITH THE STRENGTH
OF THIS SHORTWAVE. UPSTREAM PACIFIC NW SHORTWAVE WILL KICK OUT
EASTERN TROUGH...RESULTING IN RIDGING BETWEEN THE TWO TROUGHS
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT THE SURFACE...SOME MODEL PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES NOTED WITH
REGARD TO THE SFC LOW PRESSURE. GENERALLY EXPECT SFC LOW JUST
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WED NIGHT TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD
BETWEEN EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK THURSDAY.
THE LOW WILL TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST LATE IN THE WEEK TOWARD THE
CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES THIS WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO
MOVE THROUGH LATE SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE RAIN WED
NIGHT...WITH LOW CATEGORICAL POPS OR LIKELY POPS INTO THURSDAY AS
THE STACKED LOW IS SLOW TO MOVE OUT. BANDED PRECIP
LIKELY...PROVIDING ADDITIONAL MEASURABLE QPF MOST LOCATIONS.

SOME SFC BASED INSTABILITY IS NOTED CLOSER TO THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
LOW...OR EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY PER
NAM/GFS. WEAK MID LEVEL INSTABILITY IS PROGGED BY THESE MODELS AS
WELL. CANNOT RULE THUNDER...BUT THIS SHOULD BE TOO ISOLATED TO
MENTION.

DRY WEATHER EVENTUALLY RETURNS FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS THE STORM
SYSTEM DEPARTS.

DAYTIME TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL THURSDAY DUE TO
CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF RAIN. THEREAFTER...TEMPS LIKELY REBOUND
CLOSER TO...IF NOT SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. SUNDAY COULD BE THE
COOLEST DAY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WHILE TEMPS HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO WARM ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK IN SW FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE REMAINS IN THE VICINITY TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MOSTLY VFR DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. TIMING OF MVFR CIGS AND
FREQUENT -SHRA COULD BE OFF BY A COUPLE OF HOURS...MORE LIKELY THE
CASE THAT IT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO OCCUR TOO EARLY. BRIEF/SPOTTY
SHRA OR TSTM COULD PASS THROUGH AT ANY TERMINAL AT ANY GIVEN TIME
TODAY AND TONIGHT. ANY TSTM ACTIVITY TOO SPARSE TO INCLUDE IN TAFS.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...PROBABLY FAVORING ESE.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR SHOWERS LEADING TO
WET RUNWAYS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR SHOWERS LEADING TO WET
RUNWAYS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR SHOWERS LEADING TO WET
RUNWAYS.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR SHOWERS LEADING TO WET
RUNWAYS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR SHOWERS LEADING TO WET
RUNWAYS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR SHOWERS LEADING TO WET
RUNWAYS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WED THROUGH THU...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN RAIN. NLY FLOW 10 TO 15
KT G20-25KT.
.FRI...IMPROVING CONDS. NW WINDS 15-20 KT WITH 20-25 KT GUSTS.
.SAT...VFR. NW WINDS G20KT.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE...WITH WAVE HEIGHTS OF 3 TO 4 FT. WINDS
LIGHT AND FROM THE E-SE. MAINLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS INTO TONIGHT AS
LOW PRES DEVELOPS SOUTH OF THE WATERS. PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
ON WED...AND SCA CONDS LIKELY BY AFTERNOON. SEAS INCREASE 5 TO 6
FT WED AND WED NIGHT. SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS HAS BEEN REPLACED
WITH A GENERAL SCA FOR WED AND WED NIGHT ACROSS THE OCEAN ZONES.

GUSTY NORTH WINDS WED NIGHT WILL TURN TOWARD THE N/NW THURSDAY AS
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND MAKES SLOW
PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD. GUSTY NW WINDS PERSIST FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THE WINDS MAY BRIEFLY BACK TO THE WEST LATE SAT AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT.

ROUGH SEA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY IMPROVE LATE IN THE
WEEK AND INTO SATURDAY. WESTERLY FETCH THOUGH LIKELY RESULTS IN
HIGHER SEAS FURTHER EAST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FEW SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM...WILL RESULT IN LESS
THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH ON AVERAGE THROUGH TONIGHT. RAIN
INCREASES LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH
QPF LIKELY. LOCALIZED NUISANCE URBAN OR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE.

PERIODS OF RAIN...BRIEFLY HEAVY IN SPOTS...COULD RESULT IN
LOCALIZED NUISANCE URBAN OR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING WED NIGHT AND
THURSDAY.

STORM TOTALS SHOULD AVERAGE BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES PER ANALYSIS OF
OPERATIONAL MODELS...AND SREF MEMBERS. THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN SHOULD
NOT RESULT IN ANY SERIOUS LIFE THREATENING OR PROPERTY FLOODING
ISSUES/CONCERNS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPS/PW
NEAR TERM...JM/MPS/PW
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JM/MPS/PW
HYDROLOGY...MPS/PW









000
FXUS61 KOKX 211500
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1100 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE DELMARVA AREA TODAY...AND THEN WILL
MEANDER SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND THROUGH THE MID-WEEK PERIOD. THAT LOW
TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES LATE
THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
SATURDAY...THEN CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ADJUSTED DOWN WITH POPS AND CONFINED THEM TO JUST LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY...INTERIOR NORTHEAST NJ...AND INTERIOR SOUTHWEST CT BUT
SHOWERS FOR THE REST OF TODAY WILL BE SCATTERED AND ISOLATED
FARTHER TO THE EAST...MAINLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. OVERALL...MUCH
OF THE TIME BETWEEN LATE THIS MORNING AND MID AFTERNOON SHOULD
REMAIN DRY. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER REMARKABLE CHANGES MADE WITH
OTHER PARAMETERS WITH THE FORECAST MAINLY ON TRACK. MORE SUNSHINE
EXPECTED ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND COASTAL SECTIONS AND LEANED MORE
WITH THIS TREND IN THE CLOUD COVERAGE FORECAST.

DEEP UPPER TROUGH WITH SEVERAL STRONG SHORTWAVES DEEPENS OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES AREA. MEANWHILE...SFC LOW PRES DEVELOPS OVER
THE DELMARVA AREA AND SLOWLY TRACKS TOWARDS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WATERS JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND LATE IN THE DAY.

CAN EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY...BUT NOT MUCH
PRECIP IS EXPECTED. A FEW ISOLATED TSTMS POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON DUE TO STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. AS SUCH...WOULD
EXPECT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE OVER WESTERN
ZONES AND AREAS CLOSER TO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. THERE COULD EVEN
BE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS FOR A PORTION OF THE AREA.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE MILD...TOPPING OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
TEMPS COULD BE A BIT WARMER IF PARTS OF THE CWA BECOME DRY SLOTTED
AND SKIES BREAK UP AND THE SUB POPS OUT FOR A BRIEF TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TONIGHT...BUT RAIN BECOMES LIKELY OVER
WESTERN ZONES AS THE LOW DEEPENS. RAIN THEN CONTINUES THROUGH THE
DAY WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE DELMARVA...AND
BECOMES A NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED LOW WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
SFC LOW. WILL BUMP UP POPS TO LIKELY/CATEGORICAL ON WEDNESDAY AS
THAT LOW MEANDERS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND.

MUCH COOLER ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
STACKED LOW PRESSURE JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WILL SLOWLY DRIFT
NORTH/NORTHEASTWARD LATE THIS WEEK. SHORTWAVE ENERGY OUT OF
CENTRAL CANADA DIVES SOUTHEAST AND MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND. SOME DIFFERENCES ARE NOTED WITH THE STRENGTH
OF THIS SHORTWAVE. UPSTREAM PACIFIC NW SHORTWAVE WILL KICK OUT
EASTERN TROUGH...RESULTING IN RIDGING BETWEEN THE TWO TROUGHS
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT THE SURFACE...SOME MODEL PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES NOTED WITH
REGARD TO THE SFC LOW PRESSURE. GENERALLY EXPECT SFC LOW JUST
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WED NIGHT TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD
BETWEEN EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK THURSDAY.
THE LOW WILL TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST LATE IN THE WEEK TOWARD THE
CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES THIS WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO
MOVE THROUGH LATE SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE RAIN WED
NIGHT...WITH LOW CATEGORICAL POPS OR LIKELY POPS INTO THURSDAY AS
THE STACKED LOW IS SLOW TO MOVE OUT. BANDED PRECIP
LIKELY...PROVIDING ADDITIONAL MEASURABLE QPF MOST LOCATIONS.

SOME SFC BASED INSTABILITY IS NOTED CLOSER TO THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
LOW...OR EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY PER
NAM/GFS. WEAK MID LEVEL INSTABILITY IS PROGGED BY THESE MODELS AS
WELL. CANNOT RULE THUNDER...BUT THIS SHOULD BE TOO ISOLATED TO
MENTION.

DRY WEATHER EVENTUALLY RETURNS FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS THE STORM
SYSTEM DEPARTS.

DAYTIME TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL THURSDAY DUE TO
CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF RAIN. THEREAFTER...TEMPS LIKELY REBOUND
CLOSER TO...IF NOT SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. SUNDAY COULD BE THE
COOLEST DAY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WHILE TEMPS HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO WARM ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK IN SW FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE REMAINS IN THE VICINITY TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MOSTLY VFR DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. TIMING OF MVFR CIGS AND
FREQUENT -SHRA COULD BE OFF BY A COUPLE OF HOURS...MORE LIKELY THE
CASE THAT IT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO OCCUR TOO EARLY. BRIEF/SPOTTY
SHRA OR TSTM COULD PASS THROUGH AT ANY TERMINAL AT ANY GIVEN TIME
TODAY AND TONIGHT. ANY TSTM ACTIVITY TOO SPARSE TO INCLUDE IN TAFS.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...PROBABLY FAVORING ESE.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR SHOWERS LEADING TO
WET RUNWAYS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR SHOWERS LEADING TO WET
RUNWAYS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR SHOWERS LEADING TO WET
RUNWAYS.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR SHOWERS LEADING TO WET
RUNWAYS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR SHOWERS LEADING TO WET
RUNWAYS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR SHOWERS LEADING TO WET
RUNWAYS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WED THROUGH THU...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN RAIN. NLY FLOW 10 TO 15
KT G20-25KT.
.FRI...IMPROVING CONDS. NW WINDS 15-20 KT WITH 20-25 KT GUSTS.
.SAT..VFR. NW G20KT.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE...WITH WAVE HEIGHTS OF 3 TO 4 FT. WINDS
LIGHT AND FROM THE SE. MAINLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS INTO TONIGHT AS
LOW PRES DEVELOPS SOUTH OF THE WATERS. PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
ON WEDNESDAY...AND SCA CONDS LIKELY BY AFTERNOON. SEAS INCREASE 5
TO 6 FT WEDNESDAY. SCA CONDITIONS REMAIN WED NIGHT. SCA FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A GENERAL SCA FOR WED AND
WED NIGHT ACROSS THE OCEAN ZONES.

GUSTY NORTH WINDS WED NIGHT WILL TURN TOWARD THE N/NW THURSDAY AS
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND MAKES SLOW
PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD. GUSTY NW WINDS PERSIST FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THE WINDS MAY BRIEFLY BACK TO THE WEST LATE SAT AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT.

ROUGH SEA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY IMPROVE LATE IN THE
WEEK AND INTO SATURDAY. WESTERLY FETCH THOUGH LIKELY RESULTS IN
HIGHER SEAS FURTHER EAST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FEW SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM...WILL RESULT IN LESS
THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH ON AVERAGE THROUGH TONIGHT. RAIN
INCREASES LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH
QPF LIKELY. LOCALIZED NUISANCE URBAN OR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE.

PERIODS OF RAIN...BRIEFLY HEAVY IN SPOTS...COULD RESULT IN
LOCALIZED NUISANCE URBAN OR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING WED NIGHT AND
THURSDAY.

STORM TOTALS SHOULD AVERAGE BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES PER ANALYSIS OF
OPERATIONAL MODELS...AND SREF MEMBERS. THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN SHOULD
NOT RESULT IN ANY SERIOUS LIFE THREATENING OR PROPERTY FLOODING
ISSUES/CONCERNS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPS/PW
NEAR TERM...JM/MPS/PW
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JM/MPS/PW
HYDROLOGY...MPS/PW







000
FXUS61 KOKX 211500
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1100 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE DELMARVA AREA TODAY...AND THEN WILL
MEANDER SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND THROUGH THE MID-WEEK PERIOD. THAT LOW
TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES LATE
THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
SATURDAY...THEN CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ADJUSTED DOWN WITH POPS AND CONFINED THEM TO JUST LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY...INTERIOR NORTHEAST NJ...AND INTERIOR SOUTHWEST CT BUT
SHOWERS FOR THE REST OF TODAY WILL BE SCATTERED AND ISOLATED
FARTHER TO THE EAST...MAINLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. OVERALL...MUCH
OF THE TIME BETWEEN LATE THIS MORNING AND MID AFTERNOON SHOULD
REMAIN DRY. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER REMARKABLE CHANGES MADE WITH
OTHER PARAMETERS WITH THE FORECAST MAINLY ON TRACK. MORE SUNSHINE
EXPECTED ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND COASTAL SECTIONS AND LEANED MORE
WITH THIS TREND IN THE CLOUD COVERAGE FORECAST.

DEEP UPPER TROUGH WITH SEVERAL STRONG SHORTWAVES DEEPENS OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES AREA. MEANWHILE...SFC LOW PRES DEVELOPS OVER
THE DELMARVA AREA AND SLOWLY TRACKS TOWARDS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WATERS JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND LATE IN THE DAY.

CAN EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY...BUT NOT MUCH
PRECIP IS EXPECTED. A FEW ISOLATED TSTMS POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON DUE TO STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. AS SUCH...WOULD
EXPECT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE OVER WESTERN
ZONES AND AREAS CLOSER TO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. THERE COULD EVEN
BE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS FOR A PORTION OF THE AREA.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE MILD...TOPPING OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
TEMPS COULD BE A BIT WARMER IF PARTS OF THE CWA BECOME DRY SLOTTED
AND SKIES BREAK UP AND THE SUB POPS OUT FOR A BRIEF TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TONIGHT...BUT RAIN BECOMES LIKELY OVER
WESTERN ZONES AS THE LOW DEEPENS. RAIN THEN CONTINUES THROUGH THE
DAY WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE DELMARVA...AND
BECOMES A NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED LOW WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
SFC LOW. WILL BUMP UP POPS TO LIKELY/CATEGORICAL ON WEDNESDAY AS
THAT LOW MEANDERS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND.

MUCH COOLER ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
STACKED LOW PRESSURE JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WILL SLOWLY DRIFT
NORTH/NORTHEASTWARD LATE THIS WEEK. SHORTWAVE ENERGY OUT OF
CENTRAL CANADA DIVES SOUTHEAST AND MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND. SOME DIFFERENCES ARE NOTED WITH THE STRENGTH
OF THIS SHORTWAVE. UPSTREAM PACIFIC NW SHORTWAVE WILL KICK OUT
EASTERN TROUGH...RESULTING IN RIDGING BETWEEN THE TWO TROUGHS
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT THE SURFACE...SOME MODEL PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES NOTED WITH
REGARD TO THE SFC LOW PRESSURE. GENERALLY EXPECT SFC LOW JUST
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WED NIGHT TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD
BETWEEN EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK THURSDAY.
THE LOW WILL TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST LATE IN THE WEEK TOWARD THE
CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES THIS WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO
MOVE THROUGH LATE SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE RAIN WED
NIGHT...WITH LOW CATEGORICAL POPS OR LIKELY POPS INTO THURSDAY AS
THE STACKED LOW IS SLOW TO MOVE OUT. BANDED PRECIP
LIKELY...PROVIDING ADDITIONAL MEASURABLE QPF MOST LOCATIONS.

SOME SFC BASED INSTABILITY IS NOTED CLOSER TO THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
LOW...OR EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY PER
NAM/GFS. WEAK MID LEVEL INSTABILITY IS PROGGED BY THESE MODELS AS
WELL. CANNOT RULE THUNDER...BUT THIS SHOULD BE TOO ISOLATED TO
MENTION.

DRY WEATHER EVENTUALLY RETURNS FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS THE STORM
SYSTEM DEPARTS.

DAYTIME TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL THURSDAY DUE TO
CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF RAIN. THEREAFTER...TEMPS LIKELY REBOUND
CLOSER TO...IF NOT SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. SUNDAY COULD BE THE
COOLEST DAY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WHILE TEMPS HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO WARM ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK IN SW FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE REMAINS IN THE VICINITY TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MOSTLY VFR DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. TIMING OF MVFR CIGS AND
FREQUENT -SHRA COULD BE OFF BY A COUPLE OF HOURS...MORE LIKELY THE
CASE THAT IT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO OCCUR TOO EARLY. BRIEF/SPOTTY
SHRA OR TSTM COULD PASS THROUGH AT ANY TERMINAL AT ANY GIVEN TIME
TODAY AND TONIGHT. ANY TSTM ACTIVITY TOO SPARSE TO INCLUDE IN TAFS.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...PROBABLY FAVORING ESE.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR SHOWERS LEADING TO
WET RUNWAYS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR SHOWERS LEADING TO WET
RUNWAYS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR SHOWERS LEADING TO WET
RUNWAYS.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR SHOWERS LEADING TO WET
RUNWAYS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR SHOWERS LEADING TO WET
RUNWAYS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR SHOWERS LEADING TO WET
RUNWAYS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WED THROUGH THU...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN RAIN. NLY FLOW 10 TO 15
KT G20-25KT.
.FRI...IMPROVING CONDS. NW WINDS 15-20 KT WITH 20-25 KT GUSTS.
.SAT..VFR. NW G20KT.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE...WITH WAVE HEIGHTS OF 3 TO 4 FT. WINDS
LIGHT AND FROM THE SE. MAINLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS INTO TONIGHT AS
LOW PRES DEVELOPS SOUTH OF THE WATERS. PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
ON WEDNESDAY...AND SCA CONDS LIKELY BY AFTERNOON. SEAS INCREASE 5
TO 6 FT WEDNESDAY. SCA CONDITIONS REMAIN WED NIGHT. SCA FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A GENERAL SCA FOR WED AND
WED NIGHT ACROSS THE OCEAN ZONES.

GUSTY NORTH WINDS WED NIGHT WILL TURN TOWARD THE N/NW THURSDAY AS
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND MAKES SLOW
PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD. GUSTY NW WINDS PERSIST FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THE WINDS MAY BRIEFLY BACK TO THE WEST LATE SAT AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT.

ROUGH SEA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY IMPROVE LATE IN THE
WEEK AND INTO SATURDAY. WESTERLY FETCH THOUGH LIKELY RESULTS IN
HIGHER SEAS FURTHER EAST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FEW SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM...WILL RESULT IN LESS
THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH ON AVERAGE THROUGH TONIGHT. RAIN
INCREASES LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH
QPF LIKELY. LOCALIZED NUISANCE URBAN OR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE.

PERIODS OF RAIN...BRIEFLY HEAVY IN SPOTS...COULD RESULT IN
LOCALIZED NUISANCE URBAN OR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING WED NIGHT AND
THURSDAY.

STORM TOTALS SHOULD AVERAGE BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES PER ANALYSIS OF
OPERATIONAL MODELS...AND SREF MEMBERS. THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN SHOULD
NOT RESULT IN ANY SERIOUS LIFE THREATENING OR PROPERTY FLOODING
ISSUES/CONCERNS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPS/PW
NEAR TERM...JM/MPS/PW
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JM/MPS/PW
HYDROLOGY...MPS/PW






000
FXUS61 KBOX 211421
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1020 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH LINGERING SHOWERS FRIDAY AS THE STORM SLOWLY PULLS
AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND. MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND
WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

***SCATTERED HIT AND MISS SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BUT NOT
  EXPECTING A WASHOUT**

1020 AM UPDATE...

BAND OF RAIN EXITING NANTUCKET AS OF LATE MORNING.  OTHERWISE...JUST
SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE AFFECTING THE REGION AT LATE
MORNING.

HIT AND MISS SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT MAY
BECOME A BIT MORE PREVALENT.  THE REASON IS THAT WERE QUITE COLD
ALOFT GIVEN THE 500 MB CLOSED LOW TO OUR WEST.  THIS SHOULD GENERATE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO INCREASE A BIT IN
COVERAGE BY AFTERNOON...BUT NOT EXPECTING A WASHOUT.  THERE IS EVEN
THE LOW PROBABILITY FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ACROSS
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.

ALL IN ALL...WHILE SCATTERED HIT AND MISS SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON NOT EXPECTING A WASHOUT.  HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE MIDDLE 60S WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF
CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...

DRY SLOT OVERSPREADS THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF
DRIZZLE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BECOMES TRAPPED BENEATH DRY AIR ALOFT.
FARTHER INLAND ACROSS SOUTHERN NH AND WESTERN MA A STEADIER RAIN IS
POSSIBLE AS COMMA HEAD RAINS MAY CLIP THIS REGION WHILE BULK OF RAIN
IS CONFINED TO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

AS FOR TEMPS...NOT MUCH OF A DROP OFF GIVEN ONSHORE FLOW/CLOUDS AND
LIGHT PRECIP.

WEDNESDAY...

TRAILING SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND THEN
TAKES AIM AT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATER IN THE DAY. STRONG SYNOPTIC
SCALE FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE AND RESULTS IN COASTAL LOW OFF NJ
COAST TO INTENSIFY. THUS SLUG OF HEAVY RAIN LIKELY TO MOVE ONSHORE
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE DAY. IN ADDITION AS DRY SLOT
APPROACHES THETA-E LAPSE RATES BEGIN TO DECREASE. THUS EMBEDDED
CONVECTION POSSIBLE AND WOULD ENHANCE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL. THIS
WILL INCREASE THE RISK URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING AND MAY IMPACT
THE EVENING COMMUTE.

TEMPS SIMILAR AS TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE L60S OVER SOUTHEAST MA AND
COOLING INTO THE 50S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

WITH FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MID TERM REGARDING A
SLOW MEANDERING AND STACKED LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVING JUST TO THE S
OF SRN NEW ENGLAND...A GENERAL CONSENSUS BLEND WILL BE USED AS A
BASELINE FOR THIS FORECAST. FOR THE REMAINDER...TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK...THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT A BIT OF A
HIGHER AMPLIFICATION BIAS /SOMEWHAT TYPICAL OF THIS MODEL/. WHILE
OTHER OPERATIONAL MODELS AND SEVERAL OF IT/S OWN ENSEMBLES ARE
MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH A SECONDARY KICKER WAVE AND HIGH PRES.
THEREFORE...WILL ADD LESS WEIGHT TO THE ECMWF BY THE LATE WEEK AND
WEEKEND-EARLY NEXT WEEK TIME FRAME.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE THE KEY FEATURE INITIALLY IS A SLOW MOVING
CUTOFF LOW PRES WITH ATTENDANT OCCLUDING SFC LOW THROUGH LATE IN
THE WEEK. IT/S NOT UNTIL A KICKER WAVE /DEEPENING WAVE EJECTING
OUT OF THE CANADIAN W/ MOVES IN ON SAT THAT THE LOW PRES MOVES
FULLY INTO THE MARITIMES AND ALLOWS DRIER AIR TO FULLY BUILD IN.
THEREFORE...EXPECT THE WET/GRAY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRI
WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT FROM THEN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DETAILS...

WED NIGHT INTO THU...
AT THIS POINT ALL FEATURES LINE UP FOR THE POTENTIALLY WETTEST
PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. IN ESSENCE A REINFORCING LLJ /ABOUT 40+ KT
MAINLY N OF THE BOX CWA/ MOVES IN COMBINED WITH UPPER LVL DRY SLOT
AND NEAR 6.0+ C/KM LAPSE RATES. THEREFORE...LOOKS LIKE A DECENT
SETUP FOR CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WITH THIS LLJ PARTICULARLY BETWEEN
00Z AND 12Z ON THU. WITH MODEST PWATS UP TO 1.5 INCHES /ABOUT 2+
STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL/. COULD SEE POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAIN
THROUGH THE PERIOD...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
ON THU AS THE LLJ AND DRY SLOT SHIFT N. RIGHT NOW THE PRIMARY
THREAT WOULD BE THE TYPICAL URBAN AREAS WHERE DRAINAGE IS POOR FOR
ANY NUISANCE FLOODING...BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS OVER
THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. OTHERWISE...THE GRAY/DAMP CONDITIONS
CONTINUE WITH ONSHORE FLOW AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE/CLOUD COVER. DUE
TO THIS CLOUD COVER...SUSPECT THAT LOWS REMAIN MAINLY IN THE 50S
AND HIGHS ONLY RISE INTO THE MID 50S AND LOW 60S.

FRI...
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AS THE UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OF
CANADA BEGINS TO FORCE THE UPPER LVL CUTOFF TO THE E AND WEAKENS
IT. STILL ENOUGH UPPER LVL COOL AIR AND MOISTURE TO SUPPORT A FEW
MORE SHOWERS. SO THE GRAY/WET CONDITIONS CONTINUE...BUT WITH A
MORE N COMPONENT TO THE FLOW...THESE SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO BE
FEWER AND FARTHER BETWEEN. TEMPS A BIT WARMER...MAINLY UPPER 50S
TO MID 60S.

SAT AND SUN...
SFC COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION...WHICH SHOULD FINALLY RELEASE THE REGION FROM
THE GRIPS OF THE CUTOFF. AT THIS POINT WITH DRIER AIR MOVING
IN...MAY ONLY SEE CLOUD COVER WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION MAINLY SAT NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUN. THE DIFFERENCES IN AMPLIFICATION BETWEEN MODELS MAKE
IT DIFFICULT TO TELL EXACTLY HOW DEEP THE COLD AIR GETS SAT NIGHT
INTO SUN...BUT WITH FULL MIXING HIGHS OF LOW-MID 60S ARE NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION WITH LOWS FALLING BACK INTO THE 40S.

MON AND TUE...
HIGH PRES BUILDS IN ACROSS THE AREA WITH DRIER AIR AND MOSTLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS. TEMPS MAY BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS...IF NOT
SLIGHTLY ABOVE DEPENDING ON HOW DEEP THE COOL AIR BECOMES AT THIS
POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

1020 AM UPDATE...

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE DAY TODAY EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHEAST NEW
ENGLAND COAST...WHERE MVFR CIGS MAY AFFECT THE REGION WITH
SOUTHEAST ONSHORE FLOW. IN ADDITION...SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING
BY AFTERNOON MAY RESULT IN BRIEF LOCALIZED REDUCTIONS. THERE IS EVEN
A LOW PROBABILITY OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ACROSS EASTERN
NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...

MAIN AREA OF RAIN LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND.
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL BE COMMON ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TERMINALS WITH VFR/MVFR TRENDING TOWARD IFR LATE TONIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...

IFR/MVFR WITH MOST OF THE RAIN CONFINED TO THE INTERIOR. HOWEVER
A NEW AREA OF RAIN SHOULD MOVE ONSHORE TO THE SOUTH COAST LATE IN
THE DAY. E-NE WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY AS WELL.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
EXACT TIMING AND DETAILS.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
EXACT TIMING AND DETAILS.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
MAINLY IFR/MVFR WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE. LOW CIGS AND
VSBYS IN HEAVIER RAIN AND FOG. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER THROUGH
THE PERIOD. CHANCE FOR LLWS ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THU
MORNING WITH UP TO 40 KT POSSIBLE AT AROUND 2KFT ESPECIALLY
TERMINALS N OF THE MASS PIKE.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
IMPROVING TO VFR. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS ON
FRIDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN SOUTHERN NH AND EASTERN MASS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WED/...

TODAY...

STRONGEST SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER THE EASTERN MA
WATERS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. THUS SCA POSTED FOR THAT AREA.
HEAVY RAIN WITH LOW RISK OF T-STORMS ACROSS THIS AREA. ELSEWHERE
LIGHTER WINDS AND SHOWERS.

TONIGHT...

EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS. LOW RISK OF 25 KT OVER CAPE ANN WATERS.
VSBY REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE.

WEDNESDAY...

HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE EMBEDDED THUNDER MOVES SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE WATERS AND THEN ONSHORE LATE IN THE DAY.
NORTHEAST WINDS 15-20 KT. VSBY REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG AND HEAVY
RAIN LATE IN THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WED NIGHT INTO THU...
MAINLY E-NE FLOW ALONG THE WATERS WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU. THEN
SHIFTING TO NW DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THU. A FEW WIND
GUSTS MAY APPROACH GALE FORCE WED NIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE N
WATERS...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ELSEWHERE. THE
WINDS DROP OFF AS THEY SHIFT THU...BUT THEN GUST AGAIN TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATE DAY THU. OTHERWISE...SEAS BUILD WED
NIGHT INTO THU MORNING WITH AT LEAST 5-9 FT SEAS POSSIBLE. SOME
HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU MORNING.

FRI...
LOW PRES MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE...WINDS AND SEAS MAY STILL REACH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS DURING THE DAY FRI AND INTO FRI
NIGHT...BUT EXPECT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT.

SATURDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ250-254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ255-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...FRANK/NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 211421
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1020 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH LINGERING SHOWERS FRIDAY AS THE STORM SLOWLY PULLS
AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND. MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND
WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

***SCATTERED HIT AND MISS SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BUT NOT
  EXPECTING A WASHOUT**

1020 AM UPDATE...

BAND OF RAIN EXITING NANTUCKET AS OF LATE MORNING.  OTHERWISE...JUST
SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE AFFECTING THE REGION AT LATE
MORNING.

HIT AND MISS SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT MAY
BECOME A BIT MORE PREVALENT.  THE REASON IS THAT WERE QUITE COLD
ALOFT GIVEN THE 500 MB CLOSED LOW TO OUR WEST.  THIS SHOULD GENERATE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO INCREASE A BIT IN
COVERAGE BY AFTERNOON...BUT NOT EXPECTING A WASHOUT.  THERE IS EVEN
THE LOW PROBABILITY FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ACROSS
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.

ALL IN ALL...WHILE SCATTERED HIT AND MISS SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON NOT EXPECTING A WASHOUT.  HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE MIDDLE 60S WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF
CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...

DRY SLOT OVERSPREADS THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF
DRIZZLE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BECOMES TRAPPED BENEATH DRY AIR ALOFT.
FARTHER INLAND ACROSS SOUTHERN NH AND WESTERN MA A STEADIER RAIN IS
POSSIBLE AS COMMA HEAD RAINS MAY CLIP THIS REGION WHILE BULK OF RAIN
IS CONFINED TO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

AS FOR TEMPS...NOT MUCH OF A DROP OFF GIVEN ONSHORE FLOW/CLOUDS AND
LIGHT PRECIP.

WEDNESDAY...

TRAILING SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND THEN
TAKES AIM AT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATER IN THE DAY. STRONG SYNOPTIC
SCALE FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE AND RESULTS IN COASTAL LOW OFF NJ
COAST TO INTENSIFY. THUS SLUG OF HEAVY RAIN LIKELY TO MOVE ONSHORE
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE DAY. IN ADDITION AS DRY SLOT
APPROACHES THETA-E LAPSE RATES BEGIN TO DECREASE. THUS EMBEDDED
CONVECTION POSSIBLE AND WOULD ENHANCE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL. THIS
WILL INCREASE THE RISK URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING AND MAY IMPACT
THE EVENING COMMUTE.

TEMPS SIMILAR AS TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE L60S OVER SOUTHEAST MA AND
COOLING INTO THE 50S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

WITH FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MID TERM REGARDING A
SLOW MEANDERING AND STACKED LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVING JUST TO THE S
OF SRN NEW ENGLAND...A GENERAL CONSENSUS BLEND WILL BE USED AS A
BASELINE FOR THIS FORECAST. FOR THE REMAINDER...TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK...THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT A BIT OF A
HIGHER AMPLIFICATION BIAS /SOMEWHAT TYPICAL OF THIS MODEL/. WHILE
OTHER OPERATIONAL MODELS AND SEVERAL OF IT/S OWN ENSEMBLES ARE
MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH A SECONDARY KICKER WAVE AND HIGH PRES.
THEREFORE...WILL ADD LESS WEIGHT TO THE ECMWF BY THE LATE WEEK AND
WEEKEND-EARLY NEXT WEEK TIME FRAME.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE THE KEY FEATURE INITIALLY IS A SLOW MOVING
CUTOFF LOW PRES WITH ATTENDANT OCCLUDING SFC LOW THROUGH LATE IN
THE WEEK. IT/S NOT UNTIL A KICKER WAVE /DEEPENING WAVE EJECTING
OUT OF THE CANADIAN W/ MOVES IN ON SAT THAT THE LOW PRES MOVES
FULLY INTO THE MARITIMES AND ALLOWS DRIER AIR TO FULLY BUILD IN.
THEREFORE...EXPECT THE WET/GRAY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRI
WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT FROM THEN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DETAILS...

WED NIGHT INTO THU...
AT THIS POINT ALL FEATURES LINE UP FOR THE POTENTIALLY WETTEST
PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. IN ESSENCE A REINFORCING LLJ /ABOUT 40+ KT
MAINLY N OF THE BOX CWA/ MOVES IN COMBINED WITH UPPER LVL DRY SLOT
AND NEAR 6.0+ C/KM LAPSE RATES. THEREFORE...LOOKS LIKE A DECENT
SETUP FOR CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WITH THIS LLJ PARTICULARLY BETWEEN
00Z AND 12Z ON THU. WITH MODEST PWATS UP TO 1.5 INCHES /ABOUT 2+
STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL/. COULD SEE POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAIN
THROUGH THE PERIOD...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
ON THU AS THE LLJ AND DRY SLOT SHIFT N. RIGHT NOW THE PRIMARY
THREAT WOULD BE THE TYPICAL URBAN AREAS WHERE DRAINAGE IS POOR FOR
ANY NUISANCE FLOODING...BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS OVER
THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. OTHERWISE...THE GRAY/DAMP CONDITIONS
CONTINUE WITH ONSHORE FLOW AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE/CLOUD COVER. DUE
TO THIS CLOUD COVER...SUSPECT THAT LOWS REMAIN MAINLY IN THE 50S
AND HIGHS ONLY RISE INTO THE MID 50S AND LOW 60S.

FRI...
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AS THE UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OF
CANADA BEGINS TO FORCE THE UPPER LVL CUTOFF TO THE E AND WEAKENS
IT. STILL ENOUGH UPPER LVL COOL AIR AND MOISTURE TO SUPPORT A FEW
MORE SHOWERS. SO THE GRAY/WET CONDITIONS CONTINUE...BUT WITH A
MORE N COMPONENT TO THE FLOW...THESE SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO BE
FEWER AND FARTHER BETWEEN. TEMPS A BIT WARMER...MAINLY UPPER 50S
TO MID 60S.

SAT AND SUN...
SFC COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION...WHICH SHOULD FINALLY RELEASE THE REGION FROM
THE GRIPS OF THE CUTOFF. AT THIS POINT WITH DRIER AIR MOVING
IN...MAY ONLY SEE CLOUD COVER WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION MAINLY SAT NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUN. THE DIFFERENCES IN AMPLIFICATION BETWEEN MODELS MAKE
IT DIFFICULT TO TELL EXACTLY HOW DEEP THE COLD AIR GETS SAT NIGHT
INTO SUN...BUT WITH FULL MIXING HIGHS OF LOW-MID 60S ARE NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION WITH LOWS FALLING BACK INTO THE 40S.

MON AND TUE...
HIGH PRES BUILDS IN ACROSS THE AREA WITH DRIER AIR AND MOSTLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS. TEMPS MAY BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS...IF NOT
SLIGHTLY ABOVE DEPENDING ON HOW DEEP THE COOL AIR BECOMES AT THIS
POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

1020 AM UPDATE...

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE DAY TODAY EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHEAST NEW
ENGLAND COAST...WHERE MVFR CIGS MAY AFFECT THE REGION WITH
SOUTHEAST ONSHORE FLOW. IN ADDITION...SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING
BY AFTERNOON MAY RESULT IN BRIEF LOCALIZED REDUCTIONS. THERE IS EVEN
A LOW PROBABILITY OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ACROSS EASTERN
NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...

MAIN AREA OF RAIN LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND.
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL BE COMMON ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TERMINALS WITH VFR/MVFR TRENDING TOWARD IFR LATE TONIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...

IFR/MVFR WITH MOST OF THE RAIN CONFINED TO THE INTERIOR. HOWEVER
A NEW AREA OF RAIN SHOULD MOVE ONSHORE TO THE SOUTH COAST LATE IN
THE DAY. E-NE WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY AS WELL.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
EXACT TIMING AND DETAILS.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
EXACT TIMING AND DETAILS.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
MAINLY IFR/MVFR WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE. LOW CIGS AND
VSBYS IN HEAVIER RAIN AND FOG. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER THROUGH
THE PERIOD. CHANCE FOR LLWS ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THU
MORNING WITH UP TO 40 KT POSSIBLE AT AROUND 2KFT ESPECIALLY
TERMINALS N OF THE MASS PIKE.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
IMPROVING TO VFR. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS ON
FRIDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN SOUTHERN NH AND EASTERN MASS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WED/...

TODAY...

STRONGEST SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER THE EASTERN MA
WATERS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. THUS SCA POSTED FOR THAT AREA.
HEAVY RAIN WITH LOW RISK OF T-STORMS ACROSS THIS AREA. ELSEWHERE
LIGHTER WINDS AND SHOWERS.

TONIGHT...

EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS. LOW RISK OF 25 KT OVER CAPE ANN WATERS.
VSBY REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE.

WEDNESDAY...

HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE EMBEDDED THUNDER MOVES SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE WATERS AND THEN ONSHORE LATE IN THE DAY.
NORTHEAST WINDS 15-20 KT. VSBY REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG AND HEAVY
RAIN LATE IN THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WED NIGHT INTO THU...
MAINLY E-NE FLOW ALONG THE WATERS WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU. THEN
SHIFTING TO NW DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THU. A FEW WIND
GUSTS MAY APPROACH GALE FORCE WED NIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE N
WATERS...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ELSEWHERE. THE
WINDS DROP OFF AS THEY SHIFT THU...BUT THEN GUST AGAIN TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATE DAY THU. OTHERWISE...SEAS BUILD WED
NIGHT INTO THU MORNING WITH AT LEAST 5-9 FT SEAS POSSIBLE. SOME
HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU MORNING.

FRI...
LOW PRES MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE...WINDS AND SEAS MAY STILL REACH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS DURING THE DAY FRI AND INTO FRI
NIGHT...BUT EXPECT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT.

SATURDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ250-254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ255-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...FRANK/NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 211421
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1020 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH LINGERING SHOWERS FRIDAY AS THE STORM SLOWLY PULLS
AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND. MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND
WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

***SCATTERED HIT AND MISS SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BUT NOT
  EXPECTING A WASHOUT**

1020 AM UPDATE...

BAND OF RAIN EXITING NANTUCKET AS OF LATE MORNING.  OTHERWISE...JUST
SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE AFFECTING THE REGION AT LATE
MORNING.

HIT AND MISS SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT MAY
BECOME A BIT MORE PREVALENT.  THE REASON IS THAT WERE QUITE COLD
ALOFT GIVEN THE 500 MB CLOSED LOW TO OUR WEST.  THIS SHOULD GENERATE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO INCREASE A BIT IN
COVERAGE BY AFTERNOON...BUT NOT EXPECTING A WASHOUT.  THERE IS EVEN
THE LOW PROBABILITY FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ACROSS
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.

ALL IN ALL...WHILE SCATTERED HIT AND MISS SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON NOT EXPECTING A WASHOUT.  HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE MIDDLE 60S WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF
CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...

DRY SLOT OVERSPREADS THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF
DRIZZLE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BECOMES TRAPPED BENEATH DRY AIR ALOFT.
FARTHER INLAND ACROSS SOUTHERN NH AND WESTERN MA A STEADIER RAIN IS
POSSIBLE AS COMMA HEAD RAINS MAY CLIP THIS REGION WHILE BULK OF RAIN
IS CONFINED TO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

AS FOR TEMPS...NOT MUCH OF A DROP OFF GIVEN ONSHORE FLOW/CLOUDS AND
LIGHT PRECIP.

WEDNESDAY...

TRAILING SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND THEN
TAKES AIM AT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATER IN THE DAY. STRONG SYNOPTIC
SCALE FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE AND RESULTS IN COASTAL LOW OFF NJ
COAST TO INTENSIFY. THUS SLUG OF HEAVY RAIN LIKELY TO MOVE ONSHORE
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE DAY. IN ADDITION AS DRY SLOT
APPROACHES THETA-E LAPSE RATES BEGIN TO DECREASE. THUS EMBEDDED
CONVECTION POSSIBLE AND WOULD ENHANCE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL. THIS
WILL INCREASE THE RISK URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING AND MAY IMPACT
THE EVENING COMMUTE.

TEMPS SIMILAR AS TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE L60S OVER SOUTHEAST MA AND
COOLING INTO THE 50S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

WITH FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MID TERM REGARDING A
SLOW MEANDERING AND STACKED LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVING JUST TO THE S
OF SRN NEW ENGLAND...A GENERAL CONSENSUS BLEND WILL BE USED AS A
BASELINE FOR THIS FORECAST. FOR THE REMAINDER...TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK...THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT A BIT OF A
HIGHER AMPLIFICATION BIAS /SOMEWHAT TYPICAL OF THIS MODEL/. WHILE
OTHER OPERATIONAL MODELS AND SEVERAL OF IT/S OWN ENSEMBLES ARE
MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH A SECONDARY KICKER WAVE AND HIGH PRES.
THEREFORE...WILL ADD LESS WEIGHT TO THE ECMWF BY THE LATE WEEK AND
WEEKEND-EARLY NEXT WEEK TIME FRAME.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE THE KEY FEATURE INITIALLY IS A SLOW MOVING
CUTOFF LOW PRES WITH ATTENDANT OCCLUDING SFC LOW THROUGH LATE IN
THE WEEK. IT/S NOT UNTIL A KICKER WAVE /DEEPENING WAVE EJECTING
OUT OF THE CANADIAN W/ MOVES IN ON SAT THAT THE LOW PRES MOVES
FULLY INTO THE MARITIMES AND ALLOWS DRIER AIR TO FULLY BUILD IN.
THEREFORE...EXPECT THE WET/GRAY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRI
WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT FROM THEN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DETAILS...

WED NIGHT INTO THU...
AT THIS POINT ALL FEATURES LINE UP FOR THE POTENTIALLY WETTEST
PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. IN ESSENCE A REINFORCING LLJ /ABOUT 40+ KT
MAINLY N OF THE BOX CWA/ MOVES IN COMBINED WITH UPPER LVL DRY SLOT
AND NEAR 6.0+ C/KM LAPSE RATES. THEREFORE...LOOKS LIKE A DECENT
SETUP FOR CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WITH THIS LLJ PARTICULARLY BETWEEN
00Z AND 12Z ON THU. WITH MODEST PWATS UP TO 1.5 INCHES /ABOUT 2+
STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL/. COULD SEE POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAIN
THROUGH THE PERIOD...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
ON THU AS THE LLJ AND DRY SLOT SHIFT N. RIGHT NOW THE PRIMARY
THREAT WOULD BE THE TYPICAL URBAN AREAS WHERE DRAINAGE IS POOR FOR
ANY NUISANCE FLOODING...BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS OVER
THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. OTHERWISE...THE GRAY/DAMP CONDITIONS
CONTINUE WITH ONSHORE FLOW AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE/CLOUD COVER. DUE
TO THIS CLOUD COVER...SUSPECT THAT LOWS REMAIN MAINLY IN THE 50S
AND HIGHS ONLY RISE INTO THE MID 50S AND LOW 60S.

FRI...
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AS THE UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OF
CANADA BEGINS TO FORCE THE UPPER LVL CUTOFF TO THE E AND WEAKENS
IT. STILL ENOUGH UPPER LVL COOL AIR AND MOISTURE TO SUPPORT A FEW
MORE SHOWERS. SO THE GRAY/WET CONDITIONS CONTINUE...BUT WITH A
MORE N COMPONENT TO THE FLOW...THESE SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO BE
FEWER AND FARTHER BETWEEN. TEMPS A BIT WARMER...MAINLY UPPER 50S
TO MID 60S.

SAT AND SUN...
SFC COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION...WHICH SHOULD FINALLY RELEASE THE REGION FROM
THE GRIPS OF THE CUTOFF. AT THIS POINT WITH DRIER AIR MOVING
IN...MAY ONLY SEE CLOUD COVER WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION MAINLY SAT NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUN. THE DIFFERENCES IN AMPLIFICATION BETWEEN MODELS MAKE
IT DIFFICULT TO TELL EXACTLY HOW DEEP THE COLD AIR GETS SAT NIGHT
INTO SUN...BUT WITH FULL MIXING HIGHS OF LOW-MID 60S ARE NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION WITH LOWS FALLING BACK INTO THE 40S.

MON AND TUE...
HIGH PRES BUILDS IN ACROSS THE AREA WITH DRIER AIR AND MOSTLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS. TEMPS MAY BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS...IF NOT
SLIGHTLY ABOVE DEPENDING ON HOW DEEP THE COOL AIR BECOMES AT THIS
POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

1020 AM UPDATE...

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE DAY TODAY EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHEAST NEW
ENGLAND COAST...WHERE MVFR CIGS MAY AFFECT THE REGION WITH
SOUTHEAST ONSHORE FLOW. IN ADDITION...SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING
BY AFTERNOON MAY RESULT IN BRIEF LOCALIZED REDUCTIONS. THERE IS EVEN
A LOW PROBABILITY OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ACROSS EASTERN
NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...

MAIN AREA OF RAIN LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND.
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL BE COMMON ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TERMINALS WITH VFR/MVFR TRENDING TOWARD IFR LATE TONIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...

IFR/MVFR WITH MOST OF THE RAIN CONFINED TO THE INTERIOR. HOWEVER
A NEW AREA OF RAIN SHOULD MOVE ONSHORE TO THE SOUTH COAST LATE IN
THE DAY. E-NE WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY AS WELL.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
EXACT TIMING AND DETAILS.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
EXACT TIMING AND DETAILS.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
MAINLY IFR/MVFR WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE. LOW CIGS AND
VSBYS IN HEAVIER RAIN AND FOG. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER THROUGH
THE PERIOD. CHANCE FOR LLWS ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THU
MORNING WITH UP TO 40 KT POSSIBLE AT AROUND 2KFT ESPECIALLY
TERMINALS N OF THE MASS PIKE.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
IMPROVING TO VFR. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS ON
FRIDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN SOUTHERN NH AND EASTERN MASS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WED/...

TODAY...

STRONGEST SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER THE EASTERN MA
WATERS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. THUS SCA POSTED FOR THAT AREA.
HEAVY RAIN WITH LOW RISK OF T-STORMS ACROSS THIS AREA. ELSEWHERE
LIGHTER WINDS AND SHOWERS.

TONIGHT...

EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS. LOW RISK OF 25 KT OVER CAPE ANN WATERS.
VSBY REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE.

WEDNESDAY...

HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE EMBEDDED THUNDER MOVES SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE WATERS AND THEN ONSHORE LATE IN THE DAY.
NORTHEAST WINDS 15-20 KT. VSBY REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG AND HEAVY
RAIN LATE IN THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WED NIGHT INTO THU...
MAINLY E-NE FLOW ALONG THE WATERS WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU. THEN
SHIFTING TO NW DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THU. A FEW WIND
GUSTS MAY APPROACH GALE FORCE WED NIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE N
WATERS...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ELSEWHERE. THE
WINDS DROP OFF AS THEY SHIFT THU...BUT THEN GUST AGAIN TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATE DAY THU. OTHERWISE...SEAS BUILD WED
NIGHT INTO THU MORNING WITH AT LEAST 5-9 FT SEAS POSSIBLE. SOME
HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU MORNING.

FRI...
LOW PRES MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE...WINDS AND SEAS MAY STILL REACH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS DURING THE DAY FRI AND INTO FRI
NIGHT...BUT EXPECT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT.

SATURDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ250-254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ255-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...FRANK/NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 211421
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1020 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH LINGERING SHOWERS FRIDAY AS THE STORM SLOWLY PULLS
AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND. MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND
WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

***SCATTERED HIT AND MISS SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BUT NOT
  EXPECTING A WASHOUT**

1020 AM UPDATE...

BAND OF RAIN EXITING NANTUCKET AS OF LATE MORNING.  OTHERWISE...JUST
SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE AFFECTING THE REGION AT LATE
MORNING.

HIT AND MISS SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT MAY
BECOME A BIT MORE PREVALENT.  THE REASON IS THAT WERE QUITE COLD
ALOFT GIVEN THE 500 MB CLOSED LOW TO OUR WEST.  THIS SHOULD GENERATE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO INCREASE A BIT IN
COVERAGE BY AFTERNOON...BUT NOT EXPECTING A WASHOUT.  THERE IS EVEN
THE LOW PROBABILITY FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ACROSS
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.

ALL IN ALL...WHILE SCATTERED HIT AND MISS SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON NOT EXPECTING A WASHOUT.  HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE MIDDLE 60S WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF
CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...

DRY SLOT OVERSPREADS THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF
DRIZZLE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BECOMES TRAPPED BENEATH DRY AIR ALOFT.
FARTHER INLAND ACROSS SOUTHERN NH AND WESTERN MA A STEADIER RAIN IS
POSSIBLE AS COMMA HEAD RAINS MAY CLIP THIS REGION WHILE BULK OF RAIN
IS CONFINED TO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

AS FOR TEMPS...NOT MUCH OF A DROP OFF GIVEN ONSHORE FLOW/CLOUDS AND
LIGHT PRECIP.

WEDNESDAY...

TRAILING SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND THEN
TAKES AIM AT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATER IN THE DAY. STRONG SYNOPTIC
SCALE FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE AND RESULTS IN COASTAL LOW OFF NJ
COAST TO INTENSIFY. THUS SLUG OF HEAVY RAIN LIKELY TO MOVE ONSHORE
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE DAY. IN ADDITION AS DRY SLOT
APPROACHES THETA-E LAPSE RATES BEGIN TO DECREASE. THUS EMBEDDED
CONVECTION POSSIBLE AND WOULD ENHANCE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL. THIS
WILL INCREASE THE RISK URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING AND MAY IMPACT
THE EVENING COMMUTE.

TEMPS SIMILAR AS TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE L60S OVER SOUTHEAST MA AND
COOLING INTO THE 50S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

WITH FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MID TERM REGARDING A
SLOW MEANDERING AND STACKED LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVING JUST TO THE S
OF SRN NEW ENGLAND...A GENERAL CONSENSUS BLEND WILL BE USED AS A
BASELINE FOR THIS FORECAST. FOR THE REMAINDER...TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK...THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT A BIT OF A
HIGHER AMPLIFICATION BIAS /SOMEWHAT TYPICAL OF THIS MODEL/. WHILE
OTHER OPERATIONAL MODELS AND SEVERAL OF IT/S OWN ENSEMBLES ARE
MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH A SECONDARY KICKER WAVE AND HIGH PRES.
THEREFORE...WILL ADD LESS WEIGHT TO THE ECMWF BY THE LATE WEEK AND
WEEKEND-EARLY NEXT WEEK TIME FRAME.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE THE KEY FEATURE INITIALLY IS A SLOW MOVING
CUTOFF LOW PRES WITH ATTENDANT OCCLUDING SFC LOW THROUGH LATE IN
THE WEEK. IT/S NOT UNTIL A KICKER WAVE /DEEPENING WAVE EJECTING
OUT OF THE CANADIAN W/ MOVES IN ON SAT THAT THE LOW PRES MOVES
FULLY INTO THE MARITIMES AND ALLOWS DRIER AIR TO FULLY BUILD IN.
THEREFORE...EXPECT THE WET/GRAY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRI
WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT FROM THEN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DETAILS...

WED NIGHT INTO THU...
AT THIS POINT ALL FEATURES LINE UP FOR THE POTENTIALLY WETTEST
PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. IN ESSENCE A REINFORCING LLJ /ABOUT 40+ KT
MAINLY N OF THE BOX CWA/ MOVES IN COMBINED WITH UPPER LVL DRY SLOT
AND NEAR 6.0+ C/KM LAPSE RATES. THEREFORE...LOOKS LIKE A DECENT
SETUP FOR CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WITH THIS LLJ PARTICULARLY BETWEEN
00Z AND 12Z ON THU. WITH MODEST PWATS UP TO 1.5 INCHES /ABOUT 2+
STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL/. COULD SEE POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAIN
THROUGH THE PERIOD...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
ON THU AS THE LLJ AND DRY SLOT SHIFT N. RIGHT NOW THE PRIMARY
THREAT WOULD BE THE TYPICAL URBAN AREAS WHERE DRAINAGE IS POOR FOR
ANY NUISANCE FLOODING...BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS OVER
THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. OTHERWISE...THE GRAY/DAMP CONDITIONS
CONTINUE WITH ONSHORE FLOW AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE/CLOUD COVER. DUE
TO THIS CLOUD COVER...SUSPECT THAT LOWS REMAIN MAINLY IN THE 50S
AND HIGHS ONLY RISE INTO THE MID 50S AND LOW 60S.

FRI...
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AS THE UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OF
CANADA BEGINS TO FORCE THE UPPER LVL CUTOFF TO THE E AND WEAKENS
IT. STILL ENOUGH UPPER LVL COOL AIR AND MOISTURE TO SUPPORT A FEW
MORE SHOWERS. SO THE GRAY/WET CONDITIONS CONTINUE...BUT WITH A
MORE N COMPONENT TO THE FLOW...THESE SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO BE
FEWER AND FARTHER BETWEEN. TEMPS A BIT WARMER...MAINLY UPPER 50S
TO MID 60S.

SAT AND SUN...
SFC COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION...WHICH SHOULD FINALLY RELEASE THE REGION FROM
THE GRIPS OF THE CUTOFF. AT THIS POINT WITH DRIER AIR MOVING
IN...MAY ONLY SEE CLOUD COVER WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION MAINLY SAT NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUN. THE DIFFERENCES IN AMPLIFICATION BETWEEN MODELS MAKE
IT DIFFICULT TO TELL EXACTLY HOW DEEP THE COLD AIR GETS SAT NIGHT
INTO SUN...BUT WITH FULL MIXING HIGHS OF LOW-MID 60S ARE NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION WITH LOWS FALLING BACK INTO THE 40S.

MON AND TUE...
HIGH PRES BUILDS IN ACROSS THE AREA WITH DRIER AIR AND MOSTLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS. TEMPS MAY BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS...IF NOT
SLIGHTLY ABOVE DEPENDING ON HOW DEEP THE COOL AIR BECOMES AT THIS
POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

1020 AM UPDATE...

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE DAY TODAY EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHEAST NEW
ENGLAND COAST...WHERE MVFR CIGS MAY AFFECT THE REGION WITH
SOUTHEAST ONSHORE FLOW. IN ADDITION...SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING
BY AFTERNOON MAY RESULT IN BRIEF LOCALIZED REDUCTIONS. THERE IS EVEN
A LOW PROBABILITY OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ACROSS EASTERN
NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...

MAIN AREA OF RAIN LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND.
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL BE COMMON ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TERMINALS WITH VFR/MVFR TRENDING TOWARD IFR LATE TONIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...

IFR/MVFR WITH MOST OF THE RAIN CONFINED TO THE INTERIOR. HOWEVER
A NEW AREA OF RAIN SHOULD MOVE ONSHORE TO THE SOUTH COAST LATE IN
THE DAY. E-NE WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY AS WELL.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
EXACT TIMING AND DETAILS.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
EXACT TIMING AND DETAILS.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
MAINLY IFR/MVFR WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE. LOW CIGS AND
VSBYS IN HEAVIER RAIN AND FOG. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER THROUGH
THE PERIOD. CHANCE FOR LLWS ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THU
MORNING WITH UP TO 40 KT POSSIBLE AT AROUND 2KFT ESPECIALLY
TERMINALS N OF THE MASS PIKE.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
IMPROVING TO VFR. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS ON
FRIDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN SOUTHERN NH AND EASTERN MASS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WED/...

TODAY...

STRONGEST SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER THE EASTERN MA
WATERS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. THUS SCA POSTED FOR THAT AREA.
HEAVY RAIN WITH LOW RISK OF T-STORMS ACROSS THIS AREA. ELSEWHERE
LIGHTER WINDS AND SHOWERS.

TONIGHT...

EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS. LOW RISK OF 25 KT OVER CAPE ANN WATERS.
VSBY REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE.

WEDNESDAY...

HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE EMBEDDED THUNDER MOVES SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE WATERS AND THEN ONSHORE LATE IN THE DAY.
NORTHEAST WINDS 15-20 KT. VSBY REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG AND HEAVY
RAIN LATE IN THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WED NIGHT INTO THU...
MAINLY E-NE FLOW ALONG THE WATERS WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU. THEN
SHIFTING TO NW DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THU. A FEW WIND
GUSTS MAY APPROACH GALE FORCE WED NIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE N
WATERS...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ELSEWHERE. THE
WINDS DROP OFF AS THEY SHIFT THU...BUT THEN GUST AGAIN TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATE DAY THU. OTHERWISE...SEAS BUILD WED
NIGHT INTO THU MORNING WITH AT LEAST 5-9 FT SEAS POSSIBLE. SOME
HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU MORNING.

FRI...
LOW PRES MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE...WINDS AND SEAS MAY STILL REACH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS DURING THE DAY FRI AND INTO FRI
NIGHT...BUT EXPECT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT.

SATURDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ250-254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ255-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...FRANK/NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KALY 211411
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1011 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT. IT WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
WEDNESDAY...AND THEN NORTHEAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY.
A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND INTERMITTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SMALL UPPER IMPULSE SEEN ON RADAR ALONG THE NY/PA BORDER...
SUPPORTING PATCHES OF SHOWERS/LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN. SPOTTY
SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL/WESTERN NY MUCH LESS COVERAGE BUT COULD
EXPAND LATER TODAY AS IT SEEMS THERE IS SOME SORT OF LOW LEVEL
BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL/NORTHERN PA/NJ INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
ACTING AS A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS TO THE
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...OVER OUR REGION. ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
COULD BE FEW...WHICH WOULD LIMIT TEMPERATURE RISES THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANY NORTHWARD ADVANCEMENT
OF THE PARTIAL CLEARING SOUTH OF THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY. THE MID
HUDSON VALLYE AND NW CT HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF SEEING SOME
BREAKS AND AT LEAST SOME WARMING THIS AFTERNOON. LOWERED MAX
TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES...MAYBE NOT ENOUGH IN SOME
AREAS...AND ADJUSTED SKY COVER A BIT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL BE IN THE PROCESS DEVELOPING INTO A
CLOSED UPPER LOW TODAY AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
FOR TODAY THE FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. RADAR PICS AS OF 430 AM SHOW ENOUGH PCPN
COVERAGE TO WARRANT INCREASING POPS TO LIKELY IN ALL AREAS
TODAY...AND TO CATEGORICAL LEVELS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
REGION. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH
A SURFACE LOW ALSO DEVELOPING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. AS THIS
EVOLUTION TAKES PLACE...THERE WILL BE A DROP OFF IN PCPN ACTIVITY
TONIGHT AND HAVE FORECAST MAINLY CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FURTHER OUT TO SEA...THE FORECAST
AREA WILL GET INTO THE WARM CONVEYOR BAND OF PCPN AS ATLANTIC
MOISTURE SURGES WESTWARD ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW. AS A
RESULT...PCPN WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AGAIN DURING WEDNESDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HAVE RAISED POPS TO CATEGORICAL BY
LATER WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AND CONTINUE TO FORECAST
CATEGORICAL POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE ON
THURSDAY...HAVE LOWERED POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA...BUT CATEGORICAL POPS CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHEAST
HALF.

LOWS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS WILL BE IN THE 40S. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT ON THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A VERTICALLY STACKED
LOW STILL CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF CAPE COD...WITH A SPRAWLING
CYCLONIC NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING TO BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE
REGION. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE NORTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WHERE
LIKELY POPS ARE MENTIONED. MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY START TO PULL EASTWARD AND OUT TO SEA
ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...OUR REGION WILL STILL BE UNDER A CYCLONIC FLOW
REGIME SO SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. IT WILL CONTINUE TO
BE COOL AND DAMP...WITH OVERCAST SKIES RESULTING IN NOT MUCH
POTENTIAL FOR WARMING.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL DECREASE FURTHER FRIDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH A
FEW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY
AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE WESTERLY. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS
TO THE WEEKEND FORECAST...AS THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW FAR SOUTH AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM SOUTHERN CANADA DIGS OVER THE
NORTHEAST CONUS. THE GFS IS THE MOST OPTIMISTIC IN TERMS OF KEEPING
THE BRUNT OF THE TROUGH NORTH OF THE REGION WITH MILD TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER...THE ECMWF AND THE CMC TO AN EXTENT...DEPICTS THE TROUGH
DIGGING FARTHER SOUTH AND ALLOWING FOR COLDER AIR TO WORK INTO THE
REGION WITH SOME MOUNTAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN A DEVELOPING CYCLONIC
FLOW REGIME.

SO BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THE WEEKEND HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR WARMER THAN
NORMAL TEMPS AND MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE...OR COOLER TEMPS AND
MORE CLOUDS. WE WILL HAVE TO SEE WHICH WAY THE MODELS TREND AS THE
WEEKEND NEARS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS TODAY...AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY AND INTO THIS
EVENING...AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE REGION. WILL MENTION PREVAILING SHOWERS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH IT WILL NOT BE RAINING THE ENTIRE TIME AS
BATCHES OF SHOWERS WILL PERIODICALLY MOVE THROUGH.

FLYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN VFR RANGE THROUGH MUCH OF
TODAY...WITH CIGS ONLY GRADUALLY DECREASING. BY THIS EVENING THERE
WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR MVFR CONDITIONS AT THE TERMINALS WITH
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS CONTINUING.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING NORTH-NORTHEAST AROUND 5
KTS BY THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT. IT WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
WEDNESDAY...AND THEN NORTHEAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY.
A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND INTERMITTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...EVEN
THOUGH WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF SOUTH AND EAST THE REGION. INTERMITTENT RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED FROM TODAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST
RAINFALL EXPECTED FOR LATE WED INTO EARLY THU.

WITH THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR...ESP LATE WED INTO EARLY THU. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO
TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA
DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL
WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD OF A FEW DAYS...SO NO WIDESPREAD
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS
THAT THE GREATEST AMTS WOULD BE FAVORED ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...ESP SOUTHERN VT...AND POSSIBLY THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS...WITH LESS AMTS OCCURRING WITHIN THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY DUE TO DOWNSLOPING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/NAS
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM








000
FXUS61 KBOX 211306
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
905 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH LINGERING SHOWERS FRIDAY AS THE STORM SLOWLY PULLS
AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND. MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND
WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

***SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS BY AFTERNOON BUT A
  WASHOUT IS NOT EXPECTED***

905 AM UPDATE...

BAND OF HEAVY RAIN BEING GENERATED BY CORE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL
AFFECT NANTUCKET AND PERHAPS A PORTION OF THE OUTER-CAPE THIS
MORNING.  ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION...MOST AREAS WERE DRY AT MID
MORNING BUT STARTING TO SEE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SPOT SHOWERS.

EXPECT SCATTERED HIT AND MISS SHOWERS TO BECOME MORE PREVALENT
ACROSS THE REGION BY AFTERNOON.  THE REASON IS THAT WERE QUITE COLD
ALOFT GIVEN THE 500 MB CLOSED LOW TO OUR WEST.  THIS SHOULD GENERATE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO INCREASE A BIT IN
COVERAGE BY AFTERNOON.  THERE IS EVEN THE LOW PROBABILITY FOR AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.

ALL IN ALL...WHILE SCATTERED HIT AND MISS SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE BY AFTERNOON NOT EXPECTING A WASHOUT.  HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE MIDDLE 60S WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF
CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...

DRY SLOT OVERSPREADS THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF
DRIZZLE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BECOMES TRAPPED BENEATH DRY AIR ALOFT.
FARTHER INLAND ACROSS SOUTHERN NH AND WESTERN MA A STEADIER RAIN IS
POSSIBLE AS COMMA HEAD RAINS MAY CLIP THIS REGION WHILE BULK OF RAIN
IS CONFINED TO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

AS FOR TEMPS...NOT MUCH OF A DROP OFF GIVEN ONSHORE FLOW/CLOUDS AND
LIGHT PRECIP.

WEDNESDAY...

TRAILING SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND THEN
TAKES AIM AT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATER IN THE DAY. STRONG SYNOPTIC
SCALE FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE AND RESULTS IN COASTAL LOW OFF NJ
COAST TO INTENSIFY. THUS SLUG OF HEAVY RAIN LIKELY TO MOVE ONSHORE
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE DAY. IN ADDITION AS DRY SLOT
APPROACHES THETA-E LAPSE RATES BEGIN TO DECREASE. THUS EMBEDDED
CONVECTION POSSIBLE AND WOULD ENHANCE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL. THIS
WILL INCREASE THE RISK URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING AND MAY IMPACT
THE EVENING COMMUTE.

TEMPS SIMILAR AS TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE L60S OVER SOUTHEAST MA AND
COOLING INTO THE 50S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

WITH FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MID TERM REGARDING A
SLOW MEANDERING AND STACKED LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVING JUST TO THE S
OF SRN NEW ENGLAND...A GENERAL CONSENSUS BLEND WILL BE USED AS A
BASELINE FOR THIS FORECAST. FOR THE REMAINDER...TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK...THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT A BIT OF A
HIGHER AMPLIFICATION BIAS /SOMEWHAT TYPICAL OF THIS MODEL/. WHILE
OTHER OPERATIONAL MODELS AND SEVERAL OF IT/S OWN ENSEMBLES ARE
MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH A SECONDARY KICKER WAVE AND HIGH PRES.
THEREFORE...WILL ADD LESS WEIGHT TO THE ECMWF BY THE LATE WEEK AND
WEEKEND-EARLY NEXT WEEK TIME FRAME.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE THE KEY FEATURE INITIALLY IS A SLOW MOVING
CUTOFF LOW PRES WITH ATTENDANT OCCLUDING SFC LOW THROUGH LATE IN
THE WEEK. IT/S NOT UNTIL A KICKER WAVE /DEEPENING WAVE EJECTING
OUT OF THE CANADIAN W/ MOVES IN ON SAT THAT THE LOW PRES MOVES
FULLY INTO THE MARITIMES AND ALLOWS DRIER AIR TO FULLY BUILD IN.
THEREFORE...EXPECT THE WET/GRAY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRI
WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT FROM THEN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DETAILS...

WED NIGHT INTO THU...
AT THIS POINT ALL FEATURES LINE UP FOR THE POTENTIALLY WETTEST
PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. IN ESSENCE A REINFORCING LLJ /ABOUT 40+ KT
MAINLY N OF THE BOX CWA/ MOVES IN COMBINED WITH UPPER LVL DRY SLOT
AND NEAR 6.0+ C/KM LAPSE RATES. THEREFORE...LOOKS LIKE A DECENT
SETUP FOR CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WITH THIS LLJ PARTICULARLY BETWEEN
00Z AND 12Z ON THU. WITH MODEST PWATS UP TO 1.5 INCHES /ABOUT 2+
STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL/. COULD SEE POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAIN
THROUGH THE PERIOD...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
ON THU AS THE LLJ AND DRY SLOT SHIFT N. RIGHT NOW THE PRIMARY
THREAT WOULD BE THE TYPICAL URBAN AREAS WHERE DRAINAGE IS POOR FOR
ANY NUISANCE FLOODING...BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS OVER
THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. OTHERWISE...THE GRAY/DAMP CONDITIONS
CONTINUE WITH ONSHORE FLOW AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE/CLOUD COVER. DUE
TO THIS CLOUD COVER...SUSPECT THAT LOWS REMAIN MAINLY IN THE 50S
AND HIGHS ONLY RISE INTO THE MID 50S AND LOW 60S.

FRI...
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AS THE UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OF
CANADA BEGINS TO FORCE THE UPPER LVL CUTOFF TO THE E AND WEAKENS
IT. STILL ENOUGH UPPER LVL COOL AIR AND MOISTURE TO SUPPORT A FEW
MORE SHOWERS. SO THE GRAY/WET CONDITIONS CONTINUE...BUT WITH A
MORE N COMPONENT TO THE FLOW...THESE SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO BE
FEWER AND FARTHER BETWEEN. TEMPS A BIT WARMER...MAINLY UPPER 50S
TO MID 60S.

SAT AND SUN...
SFC COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION...WHICH SHOULD FINALLY RELEASE THE REGION FROM
THE GRIPS OF THE CUTOFF. AT THIS POINT WITH DRIER AIR MOVING
IN...MAY ONLY SEE CLOUD COVER WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION MAINLY SAT NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUN. THE DIFFERENCES IN AMPLIFICATION BETWEEN MODELS MAKE
IT DIFFICULT TO TELL EXACTLY HOW DEEP THE COLD AIR GETS SAT NIGHT
INTO SUN...BUT WITH FULL MIXING HIGHS OF LOW-MID 60S ARE NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION WITH LOWS FALLING BACK INTO THE 40S.

MON AND TUE...
HIGH PRES BUILDS IN ACROSS THE AREA WITH DRIER AIR AND MOSTLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS. TEMPS MAY BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS...IF NOT
SLIGHTLY ABOVE DEPENDING ON HOW DEEP THE COOL AIR BECOMES AT THIS
POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE DAY TODAY ALTHOUGH WITH GRADUALLY LOWERING
CIGS. THE EXCEPTION IS NANTUCKET WHERE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR-IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN A BAND OF HEAVY RAIN THIS MORNING.  IN
ADDITION...SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON MAY RESULT IN
BRIEF LOCALIZED REDUCTIONS. THERE IS EVEN A LOW PROBABILITY OF AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND THIS
AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...

MAIN AREA OF RAIN LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND.
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL BE COMMON ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TERMINALS WITH VFR/MVFR TRENDING TOWARD IFR LATE TONIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...

IFR/MVFR WITH MOST OF THE RAIN CONFINED TO THE INTERIOR. HOWEVER
A NEW AREA OF RAIN SHOULD MOVE ONSHORE TO THE SOUTH COAST LATE IN
THE DAY. E-NE WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY AS WELL.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
EXACT TIMING AND DETAILS.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
EXACT TIMING AND DETAILS.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
MAINLY IFR/MVFR WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE. LOW CIGS AND
VSBYS IN HEAVIER RAIN AND FOG. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER THROUGH
THE PERIOD. CHANCE FOR LLWS ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THU
MORNING WITH UP TO 40 KT POSSIBLE AT AROUND 2KFT ESPECIALLY
TERMINALS N OF THE MASS PIKE.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
IMPROVING TO VFR. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS ON
FRIDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN SOUTHERN NH AND EASTERN MASS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WED/...

TODAY...

STRONGEST SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER THE EASTERN MA
WATERS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. THUS SCA POSTED FOR THAT AREA.
HEAVY RAIN WITH LOW RISK OF T-STORMS ACROSS THIS AREA. ELSEWHERE
LIGHTER WINDS AND SHOWERS.

TONIGHT...

EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS. LOW RISK OF 25 KT OVER CAPE ANN WATERS.
VSBY REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE.

WEDNESDAY...

HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE EMBEDDED THUNDER MOVES SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE WATERS AND THEN ONSHORE LATE IN THE DAY.
NORTHEAST WINDS 15-20 KT. VSBY REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG AND HEAVY
RAIN LATE IN THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WED NIGHT INTO THU...
MAINLY E-NE FLOW ALONG THE WATERS WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU. THEN
SHIFTING TO NW DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THU. A FEW WIND
GUSTS MAY APPROACH GALE FORCE WED NIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE N
WATERS...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ELSEWHERE. THE
WINDS DROP OFF AS THEY SHIFT THU...BUT THEN GUST AGAIN TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATE DAY THU. OTHERWISE...SEAS BUILD WED
NIGHT INTO THU MORNING WITH AT LEAST 5-9 FT SEAS POSSIBLE. SOME
HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU MORNING.

FRI...
LOW PRES MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE...WINDS AND SEAS MAY STILL REACH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS DURING THE DAY FRI AND INTO FRI
NIGHT...BUT EXPECT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT.

SATURDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ250-254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ255-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...FRANK/NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 211306
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
905 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH LINGERING SHOWERS FRIDAY AS THE STORM SLOWLY PULLS
AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND. MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND
WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

***SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS BY AFTERNOON BUT A
  WASHOUT IS NOT EXPECTED***

905 AM UPDATE...

BAND OF HEAVY RAIN BEING GENERATED BY CORE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL
AFFECT NANTUCKET AND PERHAPS A PORTION OF THE OUTER-CAPE THIS
MORNING.  ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION...MOST AREAS WERE DRY AT MID
MORNING BUT STARTING TO SEE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SPOT SHOWERS.

EXPECT SCATTERED HIT AND MISS SHOWERS TO BECOME MORE PREVALENT
ACROSS THE REGION BY AFTERNOON.  THE REASON IS THAT WERE QUITE COLD
ALOFT GIVEN THE 500 MB CLOSED LOW TO OUR WEST.  THIS SHOULD GENERATE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO INCREASE A BIT IN
COVERAGE BY AFTERNOON.  THERE IS EVEN THE LOW PROBABILITY FOR AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.

ALL IN ALL...WHILE SCATTERED HIT AND MISS SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE BY AFTERNOON NOT EXPECTING A WASHOUT.  HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE MIDDLE 60S WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF
CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...

DRY SLOT OVERSPREADS THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF
DRIZZLE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BECOMES TRAPPED BENEATH DRY AIR ALOFT.
FARTHER INLAND ACROSS SOUTHERN NH AND WESTERN MA A STEADIER RAIN IS
POSSIBLE AS COMMA HEAD RAINS MAY CLIP THIS REGION WHILE BULK OF RAIN
IS CONFINED TO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

AS FOR TEMPS...NOT MUCH OF A DROP OFF GIVEN ONSHORE FLOW/CLOUDS AND
LIGHT PRECIP.

WEDNESDAY...

TRAILING SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND THEN
TAKES AIM AT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATER IN THE DAY. STRONG SYNOPTIC
SCALE FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE AND RESULTS IN COASTAL LOW OFF NJ
COAST TO INTENSIFY. THUS SLUG OF HEAVY RAIN LIKELY TO MOVE ONSHORE
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE DAY. IN ADDITION AS DRY SLOT
APPROACHES THETA-E LAPSE RATES BEGIN TO DECREASE. THUS EMBEDDED
CONVECTION POSSIBLE AND WOULD ENHANCE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL. THIS
WILL INCREASE THE RISK URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING AND MAY IMPACT
THE EVENING COMMUTE.

TEMPS SIMILAR AS TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE L60S OVER SOUTHEAST MA AND
COOLING INTO THE 50S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

WITH FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MID TERM REGARDING A
SLOW MEANDERING AND STACKED LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVING JUST TO THE S
OF SRN NEW ENGLAND...A GENERAL CONSENSUS BLEND WILL BE USED AS A
BASELINE FOR THIS FORECAST. FOR THE REMAINDER...TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK...THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT A BIT OF A
HIGHER AMPLIFICATION BIAS /SOMEWHAT TYPICAL OF THIS MODEL/. WHILE
OTHER OPERATIONAL MODELS AND SEVERAL OF IT/S OWN ENSEMBLES ARE
MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH A SECONDARY KICKER WAVE AND HIGH PRES.
THEREFORE...WILL ADD LESS WEIGHT TO THE ECMWF BY THE LATE WEEK AND
WEEKEND-EARLY NEXT WEEK TIME FRAME.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE THE KEY FEATURE INITIALLY IS A SLOW MOVING
CUTOFF LOW PRES WITH ATTENDANT OCCLUDING SFC LOW THROUGH LATE IN
THE WEEK. IT/S NOT UNTIL A KICKER WAVE /DEEPENING WAVE EJECTING
OUT OF THE CANADIAN W/ MOVES IN ON SAT THAT THE LOW PRES MOVES
FULLY INTO THE MARITIMES AND ALLOWS DRIER AIR TO FULLY BUILD IN.
THEREFORE...EXPECT THE WET/GRAY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRI
WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT FROM THEN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DETAILS...

WED NIGHT INTO THU...
AT THIS POINT ALL FEATURES LINE UP FOR THE POTENTIALLY WETTEST
PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. IN ESSENCE A REINFORCING LLJ /ABOUT 40+ KT
MAINLY N OF THE BOX CWA/ MOVES IN COMBINED WITH UPPER LVL DRY SLOT
AND NEAR 6.0+ C/KM LAPSE RATES. THEREFORE...LOOKS LIKE A DECENT
SETUP FOR CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WITH THIS LLJ PARTICULARLY BETWEEN
00Z AND 12Z ON THU. WITH MODEST PWATS UP TO 1.5 INCHES /ABOUT 2+
STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL/. COULD SEE POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAIN
THROUGH THE PERIOD...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
ON THU AS THE LLJ AND DRY SLOT SHIFT N. RIGHT NOW THE PRIMARY
THREAT WOULD BE THE TYPICAL URBAN AREAS WHERE DRAINAGE IS POOR FOR
ANY NUISANCE FLOODING...BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS OVER
THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. OTHERWISE...THE GRAY/DAMP CONDITIONS
CONTINUE WITH ONSHORE FLOW AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE/CLOUD COVER. DUE
TO THIS CLOUD COVER...SUSPECT THAT LOWS REMAIN MAINLY IN THE 50S
AND HIGHS ONLY RISE INTO THE MID 50S AND LOW 60S.

FRI...
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AS THE UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OF
CANADA BEGINS TO FORCE THE UPPER LVL CUTOFF TO THE E AND WEAKENS
IT. STILL ENOUGH UPPER LVL COOL AIR AND MOISTURE TO SUPPORT A FEW
MORE SHOWERS. SO THE GRAY/WET CONDITIONS CONTINUE...BUT WITH A
MORE N COMPONENT TO THE FLOW...THESE SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO BE
FEWER AND FARTHER BETWEEN. TEMPS A BIT WARMER...MAINLY UPPER 50S
TO MID 60S.

SAT AND SUN...
SFC COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION...WHICH SHOULD FINALLY RELEASE THE REGION FROM
THE GRIPS OF THE CUTOFF. AT THIS POINT WITH DRIER AIR MOVING
IN...MAY ONLY SEE CLOUD COVER WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION MAINLY SAT NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUN. THE DIFFERENCES IN AMPLIFICATION BETWEEN MODELS MAKE
IT DIFFICULT TO TELL EXACTLY HOW DEEP THE COLD AIR GETS SAT NIGHT
INTO SUN...BUT WITH FULL MIXING HIGHS OF LOW-MID 60S ARE NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION WITH LOWS FALLING BACK INTO THE 40S.

MON AND TUE...
HIGH PRES BUILDS IN ACROSS THE AREA WITH DRIER AIR AND MOSTLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS. TEMPS MAY BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS...IF NOT
SLIGHTLY ABOVE DEPENDING ON HOW DEEP THE COOL AIR BECOMES AT THIS
POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE DAY TODAY ALTHOUGH WITH GRADUALLY LOWERING
CIGS. THE EXCEPTION IS NANTUCKET WHERE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR-IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN A BAND OF HEAVY RAIN THIS MORNING.  IN
ADDITION...SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON MAY RESULT IN
BRIEF LOCALIZED REDUCTIONS. THERE IS EVEN A LOW PROBABILITY OF AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND THIS
AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...

MAIN AREA OF RAIN LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND.
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL BE COMMON ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TERMINALS WITH VFR/MVFR TRENDING TOWARD IFR LATE TONIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...

IFR/MVFR WITH MOST OF THE RAIN CONFINED TO THE INTERIOR. HOWEVER
A NEW AREA OF RAIN SHOULD MOVE ONSHORE TO THE SOUTH COAST LATE IN
THE DAY. E-NE WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY AS WELL.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
EXACT TIMING AND DETAILS.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
EXACT TIMING AND DETAILS.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
MAINLY IFR/MVFR WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE. LOW CIGS AND
VSBYS IN HEAVIER RAIN AND FOG. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER THROUGH
THE PERIOD. CHANCE FOR LLWS ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THU
MORNING WITH UP TO 40 KT POSSIBLE AT AROUND 2KFT ESPECIALLY
TERMINALS N OF THE MASS PIKE.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
IMPROVING TO VFR. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS ON
FRIDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN SOUTHERN NH AND EASTERN MASS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WED/...

TODAY...

STRONGEST SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER THE EASTERN MA
WATERS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. THUS SCA POSTED FOR THAT AREA.
HEAVY RAIN WITH LOW RISK OF T-STORMS ACROSS THIS AREA. ELSEWHERE
LIGHTER WINDS AND SHOWERS.

TONIGHT...

EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS. LOW RISK OF 25 KT OVER CAPE ANN WATERS.
VSBY REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE.

WEDNESDAY...

HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE EMBEDDED THUNDER MOVES SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE WATERS AND THEN ONSHORE LATE IN THE DAY.
NORTHEAST WINDS 15-20 KT. VSBY REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG AND HEAVY
RAIN LATE IN THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WED NIGHT INTO THU...
MAINLY E-NE FLOW ALONG THE WATERS WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU. THEN
SHIFTING TO NW DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THU. A FEW WIND
GUSTS MAY APPROACH GALE FORCE WED NIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE N
WATERS...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ELSEWHERE. THE
WINDS DROP OFF AS THEY SHIFT THU...BUT THEN GUST AGAIN TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATE DAY THU. OTHERWISE...SEAS BUILD WED
NIGHT INTO THU MORNING WITH AT LEAST 5-9 FT SEAS POSSIBLE. SOME
HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU MORNING.

FRI...
LOW PRES MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE...WINDS AND SEAS MAY STILL REACH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS DURING THE DAY FRI AND INTO FRI
NIGHT...BUT EXPECT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT.

SATURDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ250-254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ255-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...FRANK/NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY



000
FXUS61 KOKX 211149
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
749 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE DELMARVA AREA TODAY...AND THEN WILL
MEANDER SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND THROUGH THE MID-WEEK PERIOD. THAT LOW
TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES LATE
THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
SATURDAY...THEN CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH WITH SEVERAL STRONG SHORTWAVES DEEPENS OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES AREA. MEANWHILE...SFC LOW PRES DEVELOPS OVER
THE DELMARVA AREA AND SLOWLY TRACKS TOWARDS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WATERS JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND LATE IN THE DAY.

CAN EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY...BUT NOT MUCH
PRECIP IS EXPECTED. A FEW ISOLATED TSTMS POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON DUE TO STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. AS SUCH...WOULD
EXPECT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR 2. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE OVER WESTERN
ZONES AND AREAS CLOSER TO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. THERE COULD EVEN
BE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS FOR A PORTION OF THE AREA.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE MILD...TOPPING OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
TEMPS COULD BE A BIT WARMER IF PARTS OF THE CWA BECOME DRY SLOTTED
AND SKIES BREAK UP AND THE SUB POPS OUT FOR A BRIEF TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TONIGHT...BUT RAIN BECOMES LIKELY OVER
WESTERN ZONES AS THE LOW DEEPENS. RAIN THEN CONTINUES THROUGH THE
DAY WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE DELMARVA...AND
BECOMES A NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED LOW WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
SFC LOW. WILL BUMP UP POPS TO LIKELY/CATEGORICAL ON WEDNESDAY AS
THAT LOW MEANDERS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND.

MUCH COOLER ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
STACKED LOW PRESSURE JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WILL SLOWLY DRIFT
NORTH/NORTHEASTWARD LATE THIS WEEK. SHORTWAVE ENERGY OUT OF
CENTRAL CANADA DIVES SOUTHEAST AND MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND. SOME DIFFERENCES ARE NOTED WITH THE STRENGTH
OF THIS SHORTWAVE. UPSTREAM PACIFIC NW SHORTWAVE WILL KICK OUT
EASTERN TROUGH...RESULTING IN RIDGING BETWEEN THE TWO TROUGHS
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT THE SURFACE...SOME MODEL PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES NOTED WITH
REGARD TO THE SFC LOW PRESSURE. GENERALLY EXPECT SFC LOW JUST
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WED NIGHT TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD
BETWEEN EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK THURSDAY.
THE LOW WILL TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST LATE IN THE WEEK TOWARD THE
CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES THIS WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO
MOVE THROUGH LATE SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE RAIN WED
NIGHT...WITH LOW CATEGORICAL POPS OR LIKELY POPS INTO THURSDAY AS
THE STACKED LOW IS SLOW TO MOVE OUT. BANDED PRECIP
LIKELY...PROVIDING ADDITIONAL MEASURABLE QPF MOST LOCATIONS.

SOME SFC BASED INSTABILITY IS NOTED CLOSER TO THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
LOW...OR EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY PER
NAM/GFS. WEAK MID LEVEL INSTABILITY IS PROGGED BY THESE MODELS AS
WELL. CANNOT RULE THUNDER...BUT THIS SHOULD BE TOO ISOLATED TO
MENTION.

DRY WEATHER EVENTUALLY RETURNS FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS THE STORM
SYSTEM DEPARTS.

DAYTIME TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL THURSDAY DUE TO
CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF RAIN. THEREAFTER...TEMPS LIKELY REBOUND
CLOSER TO...IF NOT SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. SUNDAY COULD BE THE
COOLEST DAY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WHILE TEMPS HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO WARM ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK IN SW FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL TRACK TO THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN SLOWLY INTO THE ATLANTIC
TONIGHT.

TRICKY FORECAST NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A WEAK PRES GRADIENT TODAY LEADING
TO LIGHT AND VRB WINDS. TRIED TO PINPOINT A DIRECTION...BUT
THEY COULD BE ALL OVER THE PLACE UNTIL THE LOW TRACKS TO THE
S OF THE AREA AND A NE FLOW BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KT DEVELOPS THIS EVE.
ONCE THIS OCCURS HAVE MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

CONDS SHOULD BE VFR THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z...BUT COULD SEE
BRIEF ISOLD MVFR IN ANY SHOWER THAT MOVES DIRECTLY OVER ANY OF THE
TERMINALS. SPEAKING OF SHOWERS...HIT OR MISS WILL BE THE RULE TODAY SO
TOUGH TO PINPOINT EXACTLY WHEN AND WHERE. MIGHT BE TOO EARLY IN
STEADY PCPN BEGINNING AROUND 23Z TONIGHT...BUT FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS
CAN BE MADE IN SUBSEQUENT TAFS. THERE COULD BE AN ISOLD TSTM IN
ANY SHOWER LATE THIS AFTN THROUGH MID EVE. MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR CONDS
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH SCT SHOWERS.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR SHOWERS LEADING TO
WET RUNWAYS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR SHOWERS LEADING TO WET
RUNWAYS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR SHOWERS LEADING TO WET
RUNWAYS.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR SHOWERS LEADING TO WET
RUNWAYS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR SHOWERS LEADING TO WET
RUNWAYS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR SHOWERS LEADING TO WET
RUNWAYS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WED THROUGH THU...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN RAIN. NLY FLOW 10 TO 15
KT G20-25KT.
.FRI...IMPROVING CONDS. NW WINDS 15-20 KT WITH 20-25 KT GUSTS.
.SAT..VFR. NW G20KT.

&&

.MARINE...
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW PUSHED SEAS UP TO 5-6 FT ON THE OCEAN
WATERS EARLIER. SEAS ARE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE THOUGH...RUNNING
CLOSE TO 4 TO 5 FT. WILL MAINTAIN THE SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS THIS
MORNING. WINDS LIGHTEN AND SHIFT TO THE SE LATE THIS
MORNING...AND SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE TO 3-4 FT THEN.

OTHERWISE...MAINLY TRANQUIL CONDS INTO TONIGHT AS LOW PRES
DEVELOPS SOUTH OF THE WATERS. GRADIENT TIGHTENS ON WEDNESDAY...AND
SCA CONDS LIKELY BY AFTERNOON. WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING SCA DUE TO
SCA THAT IS UP FOR THIS MORNING.

GUSTY NORTH WINDS WED NIGHT WILL TURN TOWARD THE N/NW THURSDAY AS
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND MAKES SLOW
PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD. GUSTY NW WINDS PERSIST FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THE WINDS MAY BRIEFLY BACK TO THE WEST LATE SAT AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT.

ROUGH SEA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY IMPROVE LATE IN THE
WEEK AND INTO SATURDAY. WESTERLY FETCH THOUGH LIKELY RESULTS IN
HIGHER SEAS FURTHER EAST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FEW SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM...WILL RESULT IN A
TENTH OF AN INCH OF QPF OR SO THROUGH TONIGHT. RAIN INCREASES LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH QPF LIKELY.
LOCALIZED NUISANCE URBAN OR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

PERIODS OF RAIN...BRIEFLY HEAVY IN SPOTS...COULD RESULT IN
LOCALIZED NUISANCE URBAN OR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING WED NIGHT AND
THURSDAY.

STORM TOTALS SHOULD AVERAGE BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES PER ANALYSIS OF
OPERATIONAL MODELS...AND SREF MEMBERS. THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN SHOULD
NOT RESULT IN ANY SERIOUS LIFE THREATENING OR PROPERTY FLOODING
ISSUES/CONCERNS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS
     MORNING FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPS/PW
NEAR TERM...MPS/PW
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...24
MARINE...MPS/PW
HYDROLOGY...MPS/PW









000
FXUS61 KOKX 211149
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
749 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE DELMARVA AREA TODAY...AND THEN WILL
MEANDER SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND THROUGH THE MID-WEEK PERIOD. THAT LOW
TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES LATE
THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
SATURDAY...THEN CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH WITH SEVERAL STRONG SHORTWAVES DEEPENS OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES AREA. MEANWHILE...SFC LOW PRES DEVELOPS OVER
THE DELMARVA AREA AND SLOWLY TRACKS TOWARDS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WATERS JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND LATE IN THE DAY.

CAN EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY...BUT NOT MUCH
PRECIP IS EXPECTED. A FEW ISOLATED TSTMS POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON DUE TO STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. AS SUCH...WOULD
EXPECT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR 2. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE OVER WESTERN
ZONES AND AREAS CLOSER TO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. THERE COULD EVEN
BE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS FOR A PORTION OF THE AREA.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE MILD...TOPPING OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
TEMPS COULD BE A BIT WARMER IF PARTS OF THE CWA BECOME DRY SLOTTED
AND SKIES BREAK UP AND THE SUB POPS OUT FOR A BRIEF TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TONIGHT...BUT RAIN BECOMES LIKELY OVER
WESTERN ZONES AS THE LOW DEEPENS. RAIN THEN CONTINUES THROUGH THE
DAY WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE DELMARVA...AND
BECOMES A NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED LOW WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
SFC LOW. WILL BUMP UP POPS TO LIKELY/CATEGORICAL ON WEDNESDAY AS
THAT LOW MEANDERS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND.

MUCH COOLER ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
STACKED LOW PRESSURE JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WILL SLOWLY DRIFT
NORTH/NORTHEASTWARD LATE THIS WEEK. SHORTWAVE ENERGY OUT OF
CENTRAL CANADA DIVES SOUTHEAST AND MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND. SOME DIFFERENCES ARE NOTED WITH THE STRENGTH
OF THIS SHORTWAVE. UPSTREAM PACIFIC NW SHORTWAVE WILL KICK OUT
EASTERN TROUGH...RESULTING IN RIDGING BETWEEN THE TWO TROUGHS
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT THE SURFACE...SOME MODEL PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES NOTED WITH
REGARD TO THE SFC LOW PRESSURE. GENERALLY EXPECT SFC LOW JUST
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WED NIGHT TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD
BETWEEN EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK THURSDAY.
THE LOW WILL TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST LATE IN THE WEEK TOWARD THE
CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES THIS WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO
MOVE THROUGH LATE SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE RAIN WED
NIGHT...WITH LOW CATEGORICAL POPS OR LIKELY POPS INTO THURSDAY AS
THE STACKED LOW IS SLOW TO MOVE OUT. BANDED PRECIP
LIKELY...PROVIDING ADDITIONAL MEASURABLE QPF MOST LOCATIONS.

SOME SFC BASED INSTABILITY IS NOTED CLOSER TO THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
LOW...OR EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY PER
NAM/GFS. WEAK MID LEVEL INSTABILITY IS PROGGED BY THESE MODELS AS
WELL. CANNOT RULE THUNDER...BUT THIS SHOULD BE TOO ISOLATED TO
MENTION.

DRY WEATHER EVENTUALLY RETURNS FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS THE STORM
SYSTEM DEPARTS.

DAYTIME TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL THURSDAY DUE TO
CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF RAIN. THEREAFTER...TEMPS LIKELY REBOUND
CLOSER TO...IF NOT SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. SUNDAY COULD BE THE
COOLEST DAY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WHILE TEMPS HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO WARM ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK IN SW FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL TRACK TO THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN SLOWLY INTO THE ATLANTIC
TONIGHT.

TRICKY FORECAST NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A WEAK PRES GRADIENT TODAY LEADING
TO LIGHT AND VRB WINDS. TRIED TO PINPOINT A DIRECTION...BUT
THEY COULD BE ALL OVER THE PLACE UNTIL THE LOW TRACKS TO THE
S OF THE AREA AND A NE FLOW BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KT DEVELOPS THIS EVE.
ONCE THIS OCCURS HAVE MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

CONDS SHOULD BE VFR THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z...BUT COULD SEE
BRIEF ISOLD MVFR IN ANY SHOWER THAT MOVES DIRECTLY OVER ANY OF THE
TERMINALS. SPEAKING OF SHOWERS...HIT OR MISS WILL BE THE RULE TODAY SO
TOUGH TO PINPOINT EXACTLY WHEN AND WHERE. MIGHT BE TOO EARLY IN
STEADY PCPN BEGINNING AROUND 23Z TONIGHT...BUT FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS
CAN BE MADE IN SUBSEQUENT TAFS. THERE COULD BE AN ISOLD TSTM IN
ANY SHOWER LATE THIS AFTN THROUGH MID EVE. MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR CONDS
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH SCT SHOWERS.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR SHOWERS LEADING TO
WET RUNWAYS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR SHOWERS LEADING TO WET
RUNWAYS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR SHOWERS LEADING TO WET
RUNWAYS.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR SHOWERS LEADING TO WET
RUNWAYS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR SHOWERS LEADING TO WET
RUNWAYS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR SHOWERS LEADING TO WET
RUNWAYS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WED THROUGH THU...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN RAIN. NLY FLOW 10 TO 15
KT G20-25KT.
.FRI...IMPROVING CONDS. NW WINDS 15-20 KT WITH 20-25 KT GUSTS.
.SAT..VFR. NW G20KT.

&&

.MARINE...
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW PUSHED SEAS UP TO 5-6 FT ON THE OCEAN
WATERS EARLIER. SEAS ARE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE THOUGH...RUNNING
CLOSE TO 4 TO 5 FT. WILL MAINTAIN THE SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS THIS
MORNING. WINDS LIGHTEN AND SHIFT TO THE SE LATE THIS
MORNING...AND SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE TO 3-4 FT THEN.

OTHERWISE...MAINLY TRANQUIL CONDS INTO TONIGHT AS LOW PRES
DEVELOPS SOUTH OF THE WATERS. GRADIENT TIGHTENS ON WEDNESDAY...AND
SCA CONDS LIKELY BY AFTERNOON. WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING SCA DUE TO
SCA THAT IS UP FOR THIS MORNING.

GUSTY NORTH WINDS WED NIGHT WILL TURN TOWARD THE N/NW THURSDAY AS
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND MAKES SLOW
PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD. GUSTY NW WINDS PERSIST FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THE WINDS MAY BRIEFLY BACK TO THE WEST LATE SAT AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT.

ROUGH SEA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY IMPROVE LATE IN THE
WEEK AND INTO SATURDAY. WESTERLY FETCH THOUGH LIKELY RESULTS IN
HIGHER SEAS FURTHER EAST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FEW SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM...WILL RESULT IN A
TENTH OF AN INCH OF QPF OR SO THROUGH TONIGHT. RAIN INCREASES LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH QPF LIKELY.
LOCALIZED NUISANCE URBAN OR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

PERIODS OF RAIN...BRIEFLY HEAVY IN SPOTS...COULD RESULT IN
LOCALIZED NUISANCE URBAN OR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING WED NIGHT AND
THURSDAY.

STORM TOTALS SHOULD AVERAGE BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES PER ANALYSIS OF
OPERATIONAL MODELS...AND SREF MEMBERS. THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN SHOULD
NOT RESULT IN ANY SERIOUS LIFE THREATENING OR PROPERTY FLOODING
ISSUES/CONCERNS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS
     MORNING FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPS/PW
NEAR TERM...MPS/PW
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...24
MARINE...MPS/PW
HYDROLOGY...MPS/PW








000
FXUS61 KOKX 211149
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
749 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE DELMARVA AREA TODAY...AND THEN WILL
MEANDER SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND THROUGH THE MID-WEEK PERIOD. THAT LOW
TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES LATE
THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
SATURDAY...THEN CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH WITH SEVERAL STRONG SHORTWAVES DEEPENS OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES AREA. MEANWHILE...SFC LOW PRES DEVELOPS OVER
THE DELMARVA AREA AND SLOWLY TRACKS TOWARDS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WATERS JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND LATE IN THE DAY.

CAN EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY...BUT NOT MUCH
PRECIP IS EXPECTED. A FEW ISOLATED TSTMS POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON DUE TO STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. AS SUCH...WOULD
EXPECT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR 2. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE OVER WESTERN
ZONES AND AREAS CLOSER TO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. THERE COULD EVEN
BE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS FOR A PORTION OF THE AREA.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE MILD...TOPPING OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
TEMPS COULD BE A BIT WARMER IF PARTS OF THE CWA BECOME DRY SLOTTED
AND SKIES BREAK UP AND THE SUB POPS OUT FOR A BRIEF TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TONIGHT...BUT RAIN BECOMES LIKELY OVER
WESTERN ZONES AS THE LOW DEEPENS. RAIN THEN CONTINUES THROUGH THE
DAY WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE DELMARVA...AND
BECOMES A NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED LOW WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
SFC LOW. WILL BUMP UP POPS TO LIKELY/CATEGORICAL ON WEDNESDAY AS
THAT LOW MEANDERS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND.

MUCH COOLER ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
STACKED LOW PRESSURE JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WILL SLOWLY DRIFT
NORTH/NORTHEASTWARD LATE THIS WEEK. SHORTWAVE ENERGY OUT OF
CENTRAL CANADA DIVES SOUTHEAST AND MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND. SOME DIFFERENCES ARE NOTED WITH THE STRENGTH
OF THIS SHORTWAVE. UPSTREAM PACIFIC NW SHORTWAVE WILL KICK OUT
EASTERN TROUGH...RESULTING IN RIDGING BETWEEN THE TWO TROUGHS
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT THE SURFACE...SOME MODEL PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES NOTED WITH
REGARD TO THE SFC LOW PRESSURE. GENERALLY EXPECT SFC LOW JUST
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WED NIGHT TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD
BETWEEN EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK THURSDAY.
THE LOW WILL TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST LATE IN THE WEEK TOWARD THE
CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES THIS WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO
MOVE THROUGH LATE SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE RAIN WED
NIGHT...WITH LOW CATEGORICAL POPS OR LIKELY POPS INTO THURSDAY AS
THE STACKED LOW IS SLOW TO MOVE OUT. BANDED PRECIP
LIKELY...PROVIDING ADDITIONAL MEASURABLE QPF MOST LOCATIONS.

SOME SFC BASED INSTABILITY IS NOTED CLOSER TO THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
LOW...OR EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY PER
NAM/GFS. WEAK MID LEVEL INSTABILITY IS PROGGED BY THESE MODELS AS
WELL. CANNOT RULE THUNDER...BUT THIS SHOULD BE TOO ISOLATED TO
MENTION.

DRY WEATHER EVENTUALLY RETURNS FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS THE STORM
SYSTEM DEPARTS.

DAYTIME TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL THURSDAY DUE TO
CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF RAIN. THEREAFTER...TEMPS LIKELY REBOUND
CLOSER TO...IF NOT SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. SUNDAY COULD BE THE
COOLEST DAY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WHILE TEMPS HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO WARM ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK IN SW FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL TRACK TO THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN SLOWLY INTO THE ATLANTIC
TONIGHT.

TRICKY FORECAST NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A WEAK PRES GRADIENT TODAY LEADING
TO LIGHT AND VRB WINDS. TRIED TO PINPOINT A DIRECTION...BUT
THEY COULD BE ALL OVER THE PLACE UNTIL THE LOW TRACKS TO THE
S OF THE AREA AND A NE FLOW BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KT DEVELOPS THIS EVE.
ONCE THIS OCCURS HAVE MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

CONDS SHOULD BE VFR THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z...BUT COULD SEE
BRIEF ISOLD MVFR IN ANY SHOWER THAT MOVES DIRECTLY OVER ANY OF THE
TERMINALS. SPEAKING OF SHOWERS...HIT OR MISS WILL BE THE RULE TODAY SO
TOUGH TO PINPOINT EXACTLY WHEN AND WHERE. MIGHT BE TOO EARLY IN
STEADY PCPN BEGINNING AROUND 23Z TONIGHT...BUT FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS
CAN BE MADE IN SUBSEQUENT TAFS. THERE COULD BE AN ISOLD TSTM IN
ANY SHOWER LATE THIS AFTN THROUGH MID EVE. MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR CONDS
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH SCT SHOWERS.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR SHOWERS LEADING TO
WET RUNWAYS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR SHOWERS LEADING TO WET
RUNWAYS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR SHOWERS LEADING TO WET
RUNWAYS.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR SHOWERS LEADING TO WET
RUNWAYS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR SHOWERS LEADING TO WET
RUNWAYS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR SHOWERS LEADING TO WET
RUNWAYS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WED THROUGH THU...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN RAIN. NLY FLOW 10 TO 15
KT G20-25KT.
.FRI...IMPROVING CONDS. NW WINDS 15-20 KT WITH 20-25 KT GUSTS.
.SAT..VFR. NW G20KT.

&&

.MARINE...
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW PUSHED SEAS UP TO 5-6 FT ON THE OCEAN
WATERS EARLIER. SEAS ARE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE THOUGH...RUNNING
CLOSE TO 4 TO 5 FT. WILL MAINTAIN THE SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS THIS
MORNING. WINDS LIGHTEN AND SHIFT TO THE SE LATE THIS
MORNING...AND SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE TO 3-4 FT THEN.

OTHERWISE...MAINLY TRANQUIL CONDS INTO TONIGHT AS LOW PRES
DEVELOPS SOUTH OF THE WATERS. GRADIENT TIGHTENS ON WEDNESDAY...AND
SCA CONDS LIKELY BY AFTERNOON. WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING SCA DUE TO
SCA THAT IS UP FOR THIS MORNING.

GUSTY NORTH WINDS WED NIGHT WILL TURN TOWARD THE N/NW THURSDAY AS
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND MAKES SLOW
PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD. GUSTY NW WINDS PERSIST FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THE WINDS MAY BRIEFLY BACK TO THE WEST LATE SAT AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT.

ROUGH SEA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY IMPROVE LATE IN THE
WEEK AND INTO SATURDAY. WESTERLY FETCH THOUGH LIKELY RESULTS IN
HIGHER SEAS FURTHER EAST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FEW SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM...WILL RESULT IN A
TENTH OF AN INCH OF QPF OR SO THROUGH TONIGHT. RAIN INCREASES LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH QPF LIKELY.
LOCALIZED NUISANCE URBAN OR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

PERIODS OF RAIN...BRIEFLY HEAVY IN SPOTS...COULD RESULT IN
LOCALIZED NUISANCE URBAN OR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING WED NIGHT AND
THURSDAY.

STORM TOTALS SHOULD AVERAGE BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES PER ANALYSIS OF
OPERATIONAL MODELS...AND SREF MEMBERS. THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN SHOULD
NOT RESULT IN ANY SERIOUS LIFE THREATENING OR PROPERTY FLOODING
ISSUES/CONCERNS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS
     MORNING FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPS/PW
NEAR TERM...MPS/PW
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...24
MARINE...MPS/PW
HYDROLOGY...MPS/PW








000
FXUS61 KOKX 211149
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
749 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE DELMARVA AREA TODAY...AND THEN WILL
MEANDER SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND THROUGH THE MID-WEEK PERIOD. THAT LOW
TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES LATE
THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
SATURDAY...THEN CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH WITH SEVERAL STRONG SHORTWAVES DEEPENS OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES AREA. MEANWHILE...SFC LOW PRES DEVELOPS OVER
THE DELMARVA AREA AND SLOWLY TRACKS TOWARDS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WATERS JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND LATE IN THE DAY.

CAN EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY...BUT NOT MUCH
PRECIP IS EXPECTED. A FEW ISOLATED TSTMS POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON DUE TO STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. AS SUCH...WOULD
EXPECT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR 2. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE OVER WESTERN
ZONES AND AREAS CLOSER TO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. THERE COULD EVEN
BE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS FOR A PORTION OF THE AREA.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE MILD...TOPPING OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
TEMPS COULD BE A BIT WARMER IF PARTS OF THE CWA BECOME DRY SLOTTED
AND SKIES BREAK UP AND THE SUB POPS OUT FOR A BRIEF TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TONIGHT...BUT RAIN BECOMES LIKELY OVER
WESTERN ZONES AS THE LOW DEEPENS. RAIN THEN CONTINUES THROUGH THE
DAY WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE DELMARVA...AND
BECOMES A NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED LOW WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
SFC LOW. WILL BUMP UP POPS TO LIKELY/CATEGORICAL ON WEDNESDAY AS
THAT LOW MEANDERS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND.

MUCH COOLER ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
STACKED LOW PRESSURE JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WILL SLOWLY DRIFT
NORTH/NORTHEASTWARD LATE THIS WEEK. SHORTWAVE ENERGY OUT OF
CENTRAL CANADA DIVES SOUTHEAST AND MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND. SOME DIFFERENCES ARE NOTED WITH THE STRENGTH
OF THIS SHORTWAVE. UPSTREAM PACIFIC NW SHORTWAVE WILL KICK OUT
EASTERN TROUGH...RESULTING IN RIDGING BETWEEN THE TWO TROUGHS
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT THE SURFACE...SOME MODEL PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES NOTED WITH
REGARD TO THE SFC LOW PRESSURE. GENERALLY EXPECT SFC LOW JUST
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WED NIGHT TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD
BETWEEN EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK THURSDAY.
THE LOW WILL TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST LATE IN THE WEEK TOWARD THE
CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES THIS WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO
MOVE THROUGH LATE SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE RAIN WED
NIGHT...WITH LOW CATEGORICAL POPS OR LIKELY POPS INTO THURSDAY AS
THE STACKED LOW IS SLOW TO MOVE OUT. BANDED PRECIP
LIKELY...PROVIDING ADDITIONAL MEASURABLE QPF MOST LOCATIONS.

SOME SFC BASED INSTABILITY IS NOTED CLOSER TO THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
LOW...OR EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY PER
NAM/GFS. WEAK MID LEVEL INSTABILITY IS PROGGED BY THESE MODELS AS
WELL. CANNOT RULE THUNDER...BUT THIS SHOULD BE TOO ISOLATED TO
MENTION.

DRY WEATHER EVENTUALLY RETURNS FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS THE STORM
SYSTEM DEPARTS.

DAYTIME TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL THURSDAY DUE TO
CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF RAIN. THEREAFTER...TEMPS LIKELY REBOUND
CLOSER TO...IF NOT SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. SUNDAY COULD BE THE
COOLEST DAY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WHILE TEMPS HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO WARM ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK IN SW FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL TRACK TO THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN SLOWLY INTO THE ATLANTIC
TONIGHT.

TRICKY FORECAST NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A WEAK PRES GRADIENT TODAY LEADING
TO LIGHT AND VRB WINDS. TRIED TO PINPOINT A DIRECTION...BUT
THEY COULD BE ALL OVER THE PLACE UNTIL THE LOW TRACKS TO THE
S OF THE AREA AND A NE FLOW BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KT DEVELOPS THIS EVE.
ONCE THIS OCCURS HAVE MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

CONDS SHOULD BE VFR THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z...BUT COULD SEE
BRIEF ISOLD MVFR IN ANY SHOWER THAT MOVES DIRECTLY OVER ANY OF THE
TERMINALS. SPEAKING OF SHOWERS...HIT OR MISS WILL BE THE RULE TODAY SO
TOUGH TO PINPOINT EXACTLY WHEN AND WHERE. MIGHT BE TOO EARLY IN
STEADY PCPN BEGINNING AROUND 23Z TONIGHT...BUT FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS
CAN BE MADE IN SUBSEQUENT TAFS. THERE COULD BE AN ISOLD TSTM IN
ANY SHOWER LATE THIS AFTN THROUGH MID EVE. MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR CONDS
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH SCT SHOWERS.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR SHOWERS LEADING TO
WET RUNWAYS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR SHOWERS LEADING TO WET
RUNWAYS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR SHOWERS LEADING TO WET
RUNWAYS.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR SHOWERS LEADING TO WET
RUNWAYS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR SHOWERS LEADING TO WET
RUNWAYS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR SHOWERS LEADING TO WET
RUNWAYS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WED THROUGH THU...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN RAIN. NLY FLOW 10 TO 15
KT G20-25KT.
.FRI...IMPROVING CONDS. NW WINDS 15-20 KT WITH 20-25 KT GUSTS.
.SAT..VFR. NW G20KT.

&&

.MARINE...
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW PUSHED SEAS UP TO 5-6 FT ON THE OCEAN
WATERS EARLIER. SEAS ARE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE THOUGH...RUNNING
CLOSE TO 4 TO 5 FT. WILL MAINTAIN THE SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS THIS
MORNING. WINDS LIGHTEN AND SHIFT TO THE SE LATE THIS
MORNING...AND SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE TO 3-4 FT THEN.

OTHERWISE...MAINLY TRANQUIL CONDS INTO TONIGHT AS LOW PRES
DEVELOPS SOUTH OF THE WATERS. GRADIENT TIGHTENS ON WEDNESDAY...AND
SCA CONDS LIKELY BY AFTERNOON. WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING SCA DUE TO
SCA THAT IS UP FOR THIS MORNING.

GUSTY NORTH WINDS WED NIGHT WILL TURN TOWARD THE N/NW THURSDAY AS
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND MAKES SLOW
PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD. GUSTY NW WINDS PERSIST FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THE WINDS MAY BRIEFLY BACK TO THE WEST LATE SAT AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT.

ROUGH SEA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY IMPROVE LATE IN THE
WEEK AND INTO SATURDAY. WESTERLY FETCH THOUGH LIKELY RESULTS IN
HIGHER SEAS FURTHER EAST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FEW SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM...WILL RESULT IN A
TENTH OF AN INCH OF QPF OR SO THROUGH TONIGHT. RAIN INCREASES LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH QPF LIKELY.
LOCALIZED NUISANCE URBAN OR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

PERIODS OF RAIN...BRIEFLY HEAVY IN SPOTS...COULD RESULT IN
LOCALIZED NUISANCE URBAN OR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING WED NIGHT AND
THURSDAY.

STORM TOTALS SHOULD AVERAGE BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES PER ANALYSIS OF
OPERATIONAL MODELS...AND SREF MEMBERS. THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN SHOULD
NOT RESULT IN ANY SERIOUS LIFE THREATENING OR PROPERTY FLOODING
ISSUES/CONCERNS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS
     MORNING FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPS/PW
NEAR TERM...MPS/PW
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...24
MARINE...MPS/PW
HYDROLOGY...MPS/PW









000
FXUS61 KBOX 211128
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
728 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH LINGERING SHOWERS FRIDAY AS THE STORM SLOWLY PULLS
AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND. MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND
WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
7 AM UPDATE...
ACCORDING TO LATEST MSAS/LAPS MASS FIELDS...LOW PRES NEAR THE
GREAT LAKES IS SLOWLY BEGINNING TO TRANSFER ENERGY TO DEVELOPING
COASTAL WAVE JUST OFF OF THE NJ COAST THIS MORNING. THIS SECONDARY
FEATURE IS ASSISTED BY MODERATE LLJ WHICH IS CURRENTLY
MANIFESTING ITSELF AS A REGION OF MOD-HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS CURRENTLY PASSING JUST TO THE S OF THE
ISLANDS. THIS FEATURES IS EXPECTED TO BRUSH THE CAPE AND ISLANDS
THIS MORNING BEFORE SHIFTING NE AS THE LOW PRES CONTINUES TO
DEVELOP TO THE S. WHAT THIS MEANS IS SHOWERS FOR THE CAPE/ISLANDS
THIS MORNING...WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING -SHRA ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE
INTO THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. TRIED TO REFLECT THIS IN
THE MORNING TAF UPDATE. OTHERWISE...MUCH OF THE FORECAST IS ON
TRACK THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

PER LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TROUGH AMPLIFICATION TAKING PLACE
OVER THE OH VLY INTO PA AND NY STATE. IN RESPONSE TO THIS
AMPLIFICATION WARM CONVEYOR BELT AND ASSOCIATED RAINS DEVELOPING
OVER THE NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN MA INTO SOUTHWEST NH...ALONG WITH
ANOTHER AREA RI...SOUTHEAST MA AND ADJACENT WATERS. THIS SECOND AREA
SHOULD BECOME THE FOCUS FOR POTENTIALLY HEAVIER RAINFALL LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON...AS LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND
INCREASES IN MAGNITUDE ACROSS THIS AREA. THIS DIFFERENTIAL WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL YIELD ELEVATED INSTABILITY INCREASING THE RISK OF
EMBEDDED CONVECTION WITHIN THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT RAINS ACROSS CAPE
COD AND THE ISLANDS LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON.

THE 00Z GUID INCLUDING THE LATEST RAP13/W-ARW/HRRR AND THE 03Z SREF
ARE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON ANY HEAVIER RAINBANDS AND EMBEDDED
CONVECTION TO TRACK OVER THE CAPE AND ISLANDS...AND POSSIBLY
OFFSHORE. THUS HAVE CONFINED CHANCE OF HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDER TO THE
REGION. RISK OF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE FROM ABOUT 15Z TO 21Z TODAY AND
CONFINED TO CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.

ELSEWHERE NOT MUCH APPRECIABLE RAINFALL TODAY. MAINLY PERIODS OF
RAIN AND FOR THE MOST PART ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

AS FOR TEMPS...ON THE MILD SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
ACROSS MUCH OF RI AND SOUTHEAST MA AS WARM SECTOR OVERSPREADS THIS
REGION. FARTHER INLAND COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...

DRY SLOT OVERSPREADS THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF
DRIZZLE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BECOMES TRAPPED BENEATH DRY AIR ALOFT.
FARTHER INLAND ACROSS SOUTHERN NH AND WESTERN MA A STEADIER RAIN IS
POSSIBLE AS COMMA HEAD RAINS MAY CLIP THIS REGION WHILE BULK OF RAIN
IS CONFINED TO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

AS FOR TEMPS...NOT MUCH OF A DROP OFF GIVEN ONSHORE FLOW/CLOUDS AND
LIGHT PRECIP.

WEDNESDAY...

TRAILING SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND THEN
TAKES AIM AT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATER IN THE DAY. STRONG SYNOPTIC
SCALE FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE AND RESULTS IN COASTAL LOW OFF NJ
COAST TO INTENSIFY. THUS SLUG OF HEAVY RAIN LIKELY TO MOVE ONSHORE
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE DAY. IN ADDITION AS DRY SLOT
APPROACHES THETA-E LAPSE RATES BEGIN TO DECREASE. THUS EMBEDDED
CONVECTION POSSIBLE AND WOULD ENHANCE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL. THIS
WILL INCREASE THE RISK URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING AND MAY IMPACT
THE EVENING COMMUTE.

TEMPS SIMILAR AS TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE L60S OVER SOUTHEAST MA AND
COOLING INTO THE 50S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

WITH FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MID TERM REGARDING A
SLOW MEANDERING AND STACKED LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVING JUST TO THE S
OF SRN NEW ENGLAND...A GENERAL CONSENSUS BLEND WILL BE USED AS A
BASELINE FOR THIS FORECAST. FOR THE REMAINDER...TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK...THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT A BIT OF A
HIGHER AMPLIFICATION BIAS /SOMEWHAT TYPICAL OF THIS MODEL/. WHILE
OTHER OPERATIONAL MODELS AND SEVERAL OF IT/S OWN ENSEMBLES ARE
MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH A SECONDARY KICKER WAVE AND HIGH PRES.
THEREFORE...WILL ADD LESS WEIGHT TO THE ECMWF BY THE LATE WEEK AND
WEEKEND-EARLY NEXT WEEK TIME FRAME.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE THE KEY FEATURE INITIALLY IS A SLOW MOVING
CUTOFF LOW PRES WITH ATTENDANT OCCLUDING SFC LOW THROUGH LATE IN
THE WEEK. IT/S NOT UNTIL A KICKER WAVE /DEEPENING WAVE EJECTING
OUT OF THE CANADIAN W/ MOVES IN ON SAT THAT THE LOW PRES MOVES
FULLY INTO THE MARITIMES AND ALLOWS DRIER AIR TO FULLY BUILD IN.
THEREFORE...EXPECT THE WET/GRAY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRI
WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT FROM THEN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DETAILS...

WED NIGHT INTO THU...
AT THIS POINT ALL FEATURES LINE UP FOR THE POTENTIALLY WETTEST
PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. IN ESSENCE A REINFORCING LLJ /ABOUT 40+ KT
MAINLY N OF THE BOX CWA/ MOVES IN COMBINED WITH UPPER LVL DRY SLOT
AND NEAR 6.0+ C/KM LAPSE RATES. THEREFORE...LOOKS LIKE A DECENT
SETUP FOR CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WITH THIS LLJ PARTICULARLY BETWEEN
00Z AND 12Z ON THU. WITH MODEST PWATS UP TO 1.5 INCHES /ABOUT 2+
STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL/. COULD SEE POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAIN
THROUGH THE PERIOD...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
ON THU AS THE LLJ AND DRY SLOT SHIFT N. RIGHT NOW THE PRIMARY
THREAT WOULD BE THE TYPICAL URBAN AREAS WHERE DRAINAGE IS POOR FOR
ANY NUISANCE FLOODING...BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS OVER
THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. OTHERWISE...THE GRAY/DAMP CONDITIONS
CONTINUE WITH ONSHORE FLOW AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE/CLOUD COVER. DUE
TO THIS CLOUD COVER...SUSPECT THAT LOWS REMAIN MAINLY IN THE 50S
AND HIGHS ONLY RISE INTO THE MID 50S AND LOW 60S.

FRI...
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AS THE UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OF
CANADA BEGINS TO FORCE THE UPPER LVL CUTOFF TO THE E AND WEAKENS
IT. STILL ENOUGH UPPER LVL COOL AIR AND MOISTURE TO SUPPORT A FEW
MORE SHOWERS. SO THE GRAY/WET CONDITIONS CONTINUE...BUT WITH A
MORE N COMPONENT TO THE FLOW...THESE SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO BE
FEWER AND FARTHER BETWEEN. TEMPS A BIT WARMER...MAINLY UPPER 50S
TO MID 60S.

SAT AND SUN...
SFC COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION...WHICH SHOULD FINALLY RELEASE THE REGION FROM
THE GRIPS OF THE CUTOFF. AT THIS POINT WITH DRIER AIR MOVING
IN...MAY ONLY SEE CLOUD COVER WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION MAINLY SAT NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUN. THE DIFFERENCES IN AMPLIFICATION BETWEEN MODELS MAKE
IT DIFFICULT TO TELL EXACTLY HOW DEEP THE COLD AIR GETS SAT NIGHT
INTO SUN...BUT WITH FULL MIXING HIGHS OF LOW-MID 60S ARE NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION WITH LOWS FALLING BACK INTO THE 40S.

MON AND TUE...
HIGH PRES BUILDS IN ACROSS THE AREA WITH DRIER AIR AND MOSTLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS. TEMPS MAY BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS...IF NOT
SLIGHTLY ABOVE DEPENDING ON HOW DEEP THE COOL AIR BECOMES AT THIS
POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE DAY TODAY ALTHOUGH WITH GRADUALLY LOWERING
CIGS. THE MAIN CAVEAT HERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS
/POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES/ MAINLY FOR THE CAPE/ISLANDS THIS MORNING
WITH MVFR /AND POSSIBLY BRIEF IFR/ CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. INCREASING
THREAT FOR SHOWERS LATE.

TONIGHT...

MAIN AREA OF RAIN LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND.
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL BE COMMON ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TERMINALS WITH VFR/MVFR TRENDING TOWARD IFR LATE TONIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...

IFR/MVFR WITH MOST OF THE RAIN CONFINED TO THE INTERIOR. HOWEVER
A NEW AREA OF RAIN SHOULD MOVE ONSHORE TO THE SOUTH COAST LATE IN
THE DAY. E-NE WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY AS WELL.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
EXACT TIMING AND DETAILS.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
EXACT TIMING AND DETAILS.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
MAINLY IFR/MVFR WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE. LOW CIGS AND
VSBYS IN HEAVIER RAIN AND FOG. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER THROUGH
THE PERIOD. CHANCE FOR LLWS ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THU
MORNING WITH UP TO 40 KT POSSIBLE AT AROUND 2KFT ESPECIALLY
TERMINALS N OF THE MASS PIKE.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
IMPROVING TO VFR. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS ON
FRIDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN SOUTHERN NH AND EASTERN MASS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WED/...

TODAY...

STRONGEST SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER THE EASTERN MA
WATERS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. THUS SCA POSTED FOR THAT AREA.
HEAVY RAIN WITH LOW RISK OF T-STORMS ACROSS THIS AREA. ELSEWHERE
LIGHTER WINDS AND SHOWERS.

TONIGHT...

EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS. LOW RISK OF 25 KT OVER CAPE ANN WATERS.
VSBY REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE.

WEDNESDAY...

HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE EMBEDDED THUNDER MOVES SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE WATERS AND THEN ONSHORE LATE IN THE DAY.
NORTHEAST WINDS 15-20 KT. VSBY REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG AND HEAVY
RAIN LATE IN THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WED NIGHT INTO THU...
MAINLY E-NE FLOW ALONG THE WATERS WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU. THEN
SHIFTING TO NW DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THU. A FEW WIND
GUSTS MAY APPROACH GALE FORCE WED NIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE N
WATERS...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ELSEWHERE. THE
WINDS DROP OFF AS THEY SHIFT THU...BUT THEN GUST AGAIN TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATE DAY THU. OTHERWISE...SEAS BUILD WED
NIGHT INTO THU MORNING WITH AT LEAST 5-9 FT SEAS POSSIBLE. SOME
HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU MORNING.

FRI...
LOW PRES MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE...WINDS AND SEAS MAY STILL REACH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS DURING THE DAY FRI AND INTO FRI
NIGHT...BUT EXPECT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT.

SATURDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ250-254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ255-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/DOODY
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY



000
FXUS61 KBOX 211128
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
728 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH LINGERING SHOWERS FRIDAY AS THE STORM SLOWLY PULLS
AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND. MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND
WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
7 AM UPDATE...
ACCORDING TO LATEST MSAS/LAPS MASS FIELDS...LOW PRES NEAR THE
GREAT LAKES IS SLOWLY BEGINNING TO TRANSFER ENERGY TO DEVELOPING
COASTAL WAVE JUST OFF OF THE NJ COAST THIS MORNING. THIS SECONDARY
FEATURE IS ASSISTED BY MODERATE LLJ WHICH IS CURRENTLY
MANIFESTING ITSELF AS A REGION OF MOD-HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS CURRENTLY PASSING JUST TO THE S OF THE
ISLANDS. THIS FEATURES IS EXPECTED TO BRUSH THE CAPE AND ISLANDS
THIS MORNING BEFORE SHIFTING NE AS THE LOW PRES CONTINUES TO
DEVELOP TO THE S. WHAT THIS MEANS IS SHOWERS FOR THE CAPE/ISLANDS
THIS MORNING...WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING -SHRA ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE
INTO THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. TRIED TO REFLECT THIS IN
THE MORNING TAF UPDATE. OTHERWISE...MUCH OF THE FORECAST IS ON
TRACK THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

PER LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TROUGH AMPLIFICATION TAKING PLACE
OVER THE OH VLY INTO PA AND NY STATE. IN RESPONSE TO THIS
AMPLIFICATION WARM CONVEYOR BELT AND ASSOCIATED RAINS DEVELOPING
OVER THE NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN MA INTO SOUTHWEST NH...ALONG WITH
ANOTHER AREA RI...SOUTHEAST MA AND ADJACENT WATERS. THIS SECOND AREA
SHOULD BECOME THE FOCUS FOR POTENTIALLY HEAVIER RAINFALL LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON...AS LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND
INCREASES IN MAGNITUDE ACROSS THIS AREA. THIS DIFFERENTIAL WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL YIELD ELEVATED INSTABILITY INCREASING THE RISK OF
EMBEDDED CONVECTION WITHIN THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT RAINS ACROSS CAPE
COD AND THE ISLANDS LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON.

THE 00Z GUID INCLUDING THE LATEST RAP13/W-ARW/HRRR AND THE 03Z SREF
ARE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON ANY HEAVIER RAINBANDS AND EMBEDDED
CONVECTION TO TRACK OVER THE CAPE AND ISLANDS...AND POSSIBLY
OFFSHORE. THUS HAVE CONFINED CHANCE OF HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDER TO THE
REGION. RISK OF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE FROM ABOUT 15Z TO 21Z TODAY AND
CONFINED TO CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.

ELSEWHERE NOT MUCH APPRECIABLE RAINFALL TODAY. MAINLY PERIODS OF
RAIN AND FOR THE MOST PART ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

AS FOR TEMPS...ON THE MILD SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
ACROSS MUCH OF RI AND SOUTHEAST MA AS WARM SECTOR OVERSPREADS THIS
REGION. FARTHER INLAND COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...

DRY SLOT OVERSPREADS THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF
DRIZZLE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BECOMES TRAPPED BENEATH DRY AIR ALOFT.
FARTHER INLAND ACROSS SOUTHERN NH AND WESTERN MA A STEADIER RAIN IS
POSSIBLE AS COMMA HEAD RAINS MAY CLIP THIS REGION WHILE BULK OF RAIN
IS CONFINED TO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

AS FOR TEMPS...NOT MUCH OF A DROP OFF GIVEN ONSHORE FLOW/CLOUDS AND
LIGHT PRECIP.

WEDNESDAY...

TRAILING SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND THEN
TAKES AIM AT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATER IN THE DAY. STRONG SYNOPTIC
SCALE FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE AND RESULTS IN COASTAL LOW OFF NJ
COAST TO INTENSIFY. THUS SLUG OF HEAVY RAIN LIKELY TO MOVE ONSHORE
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE DAY. IN ADDITION AS DRY SLOT
APPROACHES THETA-E LAPSE RATES BEGIN TO DECREASE. THUS EMBEDDED
CONVECTION POSSIBLE AND WOULD ENHANCE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL. THIS
WILL INCREASE THE RISK URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING AND MAY IMPACT
THE EVENING COMMUTE.

TEMPS SIMILAR AS TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE L60S OVER SOUTHEAST MA AND
COOLING INTO THE 50S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

WITH FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MID TERM REGARDING A
SLOW MEANDERING AND STACKED LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVING JUST TO THE S
OF SRN NEW ENGLAND...A GENERAL CONSENSUS BLEND WILL BE USED AS A
BASELINE FOR THIS FORECAST. FOR THE REMAINDER...TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK...THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT A BIT OF A
HIGHER AMPLIFICATION BIAS /SOMEWHAT TYPICAL OF THIS MODEL/. WHILE
OTHER OPERATIONAL MODELS AND SEVERAL OF IT/S OWN ENSEMBLES ARE
MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH A SECONDARY KICKER WAVE AND HIGH PRES.
THEREFORE...WILL ADD LESS WEIGHT TO THE ECMWF BY THE LATE WEEK AND
WEEKEND-EARLY NEXT WEEK TIME FRAME.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE THE KEY FEATURE INITIALLY IS A SLOW MOVING
CUTOFF LOW PRES WITH ATTENDANT OCCLUDING SFC LOW THROUGH LATE IN
THE WEEK. IT/S NOT UNTIL A KICKER WAVE /DEEPENING WAVE EJECTING
OUT OF THE CANADIAN W/ MOVES IN ON SAT THAT THE LOW PRES MOVES
FULLY INTO THE MARITIMES AND ALLOWS DRIER AIR TO FULLY BUILD IN.
THEREFORE...EXPECT THE WET/GRAY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRI
WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT FROM THEN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DETAILS...

WED NIGHT INTO THU...
AT THIS POINT ALL FEATURES LINE UP FOR THE POTENTIALLY WETTEST
PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. IN ESSENCE A REINFORCING LLJ /ABOUT 40+ KT
MAINLY N OF THE BOX CWA/ MOVES IN COMBINED WITH UPPER LVL DRY SLOT
AND NEAR 6.0+ C/KM LAPSE RATES. THEREFORE...LOOKS LIKE A DECENT
SETUP FOR CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WITH THIS LLJ PARTICULARLY BETWEEN
00Z AND 12Z ON THU. WITH MODEST PWATS UP TO 1.5 INCHES /ABOUT 2+
STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL/. COULD SEE POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAIN
THROUGH THE PERIOD...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
ON THU AS THE LLJ AND DRY SLOT SHIFT N. RIGHT NOW THE PRIMARY
THREAT WOULD BE THE TYPICAL URBAN AREAS WHERE DRAINAGE IS POOR FOR
ANY NUISANCE FLOODING...BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS OVER
THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. OTHERWISE...THE GRAY/DAMP CONDITIONS
CONTINUE WITH ONSHORE FLOW AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE/CLOUD COVER. DUE
TO THIS CLOUD COVER...SUSPECT THAT LOWS REMAIN MAINLY IN THE 50S
AND HIGHS ONLY RISE INTO THE MID 50S AND LOW 60S.

FRI...
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AS THE UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OF
CANADA BEGINS TO FORCE THE UPPER LVL CUTOFF TO THE E AND WEAKENS
IT. STILL ENOUGH UPPER LVL COOL AIR AND MOISTURE TO SUPPORT A FEW
MORE SHOWERS. SO THE GRAY/WET CONDITIONS CONTINUE...BUT WITH A
MORE N COMPONENT TO THE FLOW...THESE SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO BE
FEWER AND FARTHER BETWEEN. TEMPS A BIT WARMER...MAINLY UPPER 50S
TO MID 60S.

SAT AND SUN...
SFC COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION...WHICH SHOULD FINALLY RELEASE THE REGION FROM
THE GRIPS OF THE CUTOFF. AT THIS POINT WITH DRIER AIR MOVING
IN...MAY ONLY SEE CLOUD COVER WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION MAINLY SAT NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUN. THE DIFFERENCES IN AMPLIFICATION BETWEEN MODELS MAKE
IT DIFFICULT TO TELL EXACTLY HOW DEEP THE COLD AIR GETS SAT NIGHT
INTO SUN...BUT WITH FULL MIXING HIGHS OF LOW-MID 60S ARE NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION WITH LOWS FALLING BACK INTO THE 40S.

MON AND TUE...
HIGH PRES BUILDS IN ACROSS THE AREA WITH DRIER AIR AND MOSTLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS. TEMPS MAY BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS...IF NOT
SLIGHTLY ABOVE DEPENDING ON HOW DEEP THE COOL AIR BECOMES AT THIS
POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE DAY TODAY ALTHOUGH WITH GRADUALLY LOWERING
CIGS. THE MAIN CAVEAT HERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS
/POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES/ MAINLY FOR THE CAPE/ISLANDS THIS MORNING
WITH MVFR /AND POSSIBLY BRIEF IFR/ CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. INCREASING
THREAT FOR SHOWERS LATE.

TONIGHT...

MAIN AREA OF RAIN LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND.
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL BE COMMON ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TERMINALS WITH VFR/MVFR TRENDING TOWARD IFR LATE TONIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...

IFR/MVFR WITH MOST OF THE RAIN CONFINED TO THE INTERIOR. HOWEVER
A NEW AREA OF RAIN SHOULD MOVE ONSHORE TO THE SOUTH COAST LATE IN
THE DAY. E-NE WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY AS WELL.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
EXACT TIMING AND DETAILS.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
EXACT TIMING AND DETAILS.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
MAINLY IFR/MVFR WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE. LOW CIGS AND
VSBYS IN HEAVIER RAIN AND FOG. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER THROUGH
THE PERIOD. CHANCE FOR LLWS ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THU
MORNING WITH UP TO 40 KT POSSIBLE AT AROUND 2KFT ESPECIALLY
TERMINALS N OF THE MASS PIKE.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
IMPROVING TO VFR. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS ON
FRIDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN SOUTHERN NH AND EASTERN MASS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WED/...

TODAY...

STRONGEST SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER THE EASTERN MA
WATERS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. THUS SCA POSTED FOR THAT AREA.
HEAVY RAIN WITH LOW RISK OF T-STORMS ACROSS THIS AREA. ELSEWHERE
LIGHTER WINDS AND SHOWERS.

TONIGHT...

EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS. LOW RISK OF 25 KT OVER CAPE ANN WATERS.
VSBY REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE.

WEDNESDAY...

HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE EMBEDDED THUNDER MOVES SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE WATERS AND THEN ONSHORE LATE IN THE DAY.
NORTHEAST WINDS 15-20 KT. VSBY REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG AND HEAVY
RAIN LATE IN THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WED NIGHT INTO THU...
MAINLY E-NE FLOW ALONG THE WATERS WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU. THEN
SHIFTING TO NW DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THU. A FEW WIND
GUSTS MAY APPROACH GALE FORCE WED NIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE N
WATERS...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ELSEWHERE. THE
WINDS DROP OFF AS THEY SHIFT THU...BUT THEN GUST AGAIN TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATE DAY THU. OTHERWISE...SEAS BUILD WED
NIGHT INTO THU MORNING WITH AT LEAST 5-9 FT SEAS POSSIBLE. SOME
HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU MORNING.

FRI...
LOW PRES MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE...WINDS AND SEAS MAY STILL REACH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS DURING THE DAY FRI AND INTO FRI
NIGHT...BUT EXPECT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT.

SATURDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ250-254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ255-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/DOODY
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 211128
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
728 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH LINGERING SHOWERS FRIDAY AS THE STORM SLOWLY PULLS
AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND. MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND
WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
7 AM UPDATE...
ACCORDING TO LATEST MSAS/LAPS MASS FIELDS...LOW PRES NEAR THE
GREAT LAKES IS SLOWLY BEGINNING TO TRANSFER ENERGY TO DEVELOPING
COASTAL WAVE JUST OFF OF THE NJ COAST THIS MORNING. THIS SECONDARY
FEATURE IS ASSISTED BY MODERATE LLJ WHICH IS CURRENTLY
MANIFESTING ITSELF AS A REGION OF MOD-HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS CURRENTLY PASSING JUST TO THE S OF THE
ISLANDS. THIS FEATURES IS EXPECTED TO BRUSH THE CAPE AND ISLANDS
THIS MORNING BEFORE SHIFTING NE AS THE LOW PRES CONTINUES TO
DEVELOP TO THE S. WHAT THIS MEANS IS SHOWERS FOR THE CAPE/ISLANDS
THIS MORNING...WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING -SHRA ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE
INTO THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. TRIED TO REFLECT THIS IN
THE MORNING TAF UPDATE. OTHERWISE...MUCH OF THE FORECAST IS ON
TRACK THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

PER LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TROUGH AMPLIFICATION TAKING PLACE
OVER THE OH VLY INTO PA AND NY STATE. IN RESPONSE TO THIS
AMPLIFICATION WARM CONVEYOR BELT AND ASSOCIATED RAINS DEVELOPING
OVER THE NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN MA INTO SOUTHWEST NH...ALONG WITH
ANOTHER AREA RI...SOUTHEAST MA AND ADJACENT WATERS. THIS SECOND AREA
SHOULD BECOME THE FOCUS FOR POTENTIALLY HEAVIER RAINFALL LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON...AS LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND
INCREASES IN MAGNITUDE ACROSS THIS AREA. THIS DIFFERENTIAL WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL YIELD ELEVATED INSTABILITY INCREASING THE RISK OF
EMBEDDED CONVECTION WITHIN THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT RAINS ACROSS CAPE
COD AND THE ISLANDS LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON.

THE 00Z GUID INCLUDING THE LATEST RAP13/W-ARW/HRRR AND THE 03Z SREF
ARE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON ANY HEAVIER RAINBANDS AND EMBEDDED
CONVECTION TO TRACK OVER THE CAPE AND ISLANDS...AND POSSIBLY
OFFSHORE. THUS HAVE CONFINED CHANCE OF HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDER TO THE
REGION. RISK OF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE FROM ABOUT 15Z TO 21Z TODAY AND
CONFINED TO CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.

ELSEWHERE NOT MUCH APPRECIABLE RAINFALL TODAY. MAINLY PERIODS OF
RAIN AND FOR THE MOST PART ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

AS FOR TEMPS...ON THE MILD SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
ACROSS MUCH OF RI AND SOUTHEAST MA AS WARM SECTOR OVERSPREADS THIS
REGION. FARTHER INLAND COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...

DRY SLOT OVERSPREADS THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF
DRIZZLE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BECOMES TRAPPED BENEATH DRY AIR ALOFT.
FARTHER INLAND ACROSS SOUTHERN NH AND WESTERN MA A STEADIER RAIN IS
POSSIBLE AS COMMA HEAD RAINS MAY CLIP THIS REGION WHILE BULK OF RAIN
IS CONFINED TO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

AS FOR TEMPS...NOT MUCH OF A DROP OFF GIVEN ONSHORE FLOW/CLOUDS AND
LIGHT PRECIP.

WEDNESDAY...

TRAILING SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND THEN
TAKES AIM AT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATER IN THE DAY. STRONG SYNOPTIC
SCALE FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE AND RESULTS IN COASTAL LOW OFF NJ
COAST TO INTENSIFY. THUS SLUG OF HEAVY RAIN LIKELY TO MOVE ONSHORE
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE DAY. IN ADDITION AS DRY SLOT
APPROACHES THETA-E LAPSE RATES BEGIN TO DECREASE. THUS EMBEDDED
CONVECTION POSSIBLE AND WOULD ENHANCE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL. THIS
WILL INCREASE THE RISK URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING AND MAY IMPACT
THE EVENING COMMUTE.

TEMPS SIMILAR AS TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE L60S OVER SOUTHEAST MA AND
COOLING INTO THE 50S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

WITH FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MID TERM REGARDING A
SLOW MEANDERING AND STACKED LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVING JUST TO THE S
OF SRN NEW ENGLAND...A GENERAL CONSENSUS BLEND WILL BE USED AS A
BASELINE FOR THIS FORECAST. FOR THE REMAINDER...TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK...THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT A BIT OF A
HIGHER AMPLIFICATION BIAS /SOMEWHAT TYPICAL OF THIS MODEL/. WHILE
OTHER OPERATIONAL MODELS AND SEVERAL OF IT/S OWN ENSEMBLES ARE
MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH A SECONDARY KICKER WAVE AND HIGH PRES.
THEREFORE...WILL ADD LESS WEIGHT TO THE ECMWF BY THE LATE WEEK AND
WEEKEND-EARLY NEXT WEEK TIME FRAME.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE THE KEY FEATURE INITIALLY IS A SLOW MOVING
CUTOFF LOW PRES WITH ATTENDANT OCCLUDING SFC LOW THROUGH LATE IN
THE WEEK. IT/S NOT UNTIL A KICKER WAVE /DEEPENING WAVE EJECTING
OUT OF THE CANADIAN W/ MOVES IN ON SAT THAT THE LOW PRES MOVES
FULLY INTO THE MARITIMES AND ALLOWS DRIER AIR TO FULLY BUILD IN.
THEREFORE...EXPECT THE WET/GRAY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRI
WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT FROM THEN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DETAILS...

WED NIGHT INTO THU...
AT THIS POINT ALL FEATURES LINE UP FOR THE POTENTIALLY WETTEST
PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. IN ESSENCE A REINFORCING LLJ /ABOUT 40+ KT
MAINLY N OF THE BOX CWA/ MOVES IN COMBINED WITH UPPER LVL DRY SLOT
AND NEAR 6.0+ C/KM LAPSE RATES. THEREFORE...LOOKS LIKE A DECENT
SETUP FOR CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WITH THIS LLJ PARTICULARLY BETWEEN
00Z AND 12Z ON THU. WITH MODEST PWATS UP TO 1.5 INCHES /ABOUT 2+
STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL/. COULD SEE POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAIN
THROUGH THE PERIOD...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
ON THU AS THE LLJ AND DRY SLOT SHIFT N. RIGHT NOW THE PRIMARY
THREAT WOULD BE THE TYPICAL URBAN AREAS WHERE DRAINAGE IS POOR FOR
ANY NUISANCE FLOODING...BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS OVER
THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. OTHERWISE...THE GRAY/DAMP CONDITIONS
CONTINUE WITH ONSHORE FLOW AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE/CLOUD COVER. DUE
TO THIS CLOUD COVER...SUSPECT THAT LOWS REMAIN MAINLY IN THE 50S
AND HIGHS ONLY RISE INTO THE MID 50S AND LOW 60S.

FRI...
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AS THE UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OF
CANADA BEGINS TO FORCE THE UPPER LVL CUTOFF TO THE E AND WEAKENS
IT. STILL ENOUGH UPPER LVL COOL AIR AND MOISTURE TO SUPPORT A FEW
MORE SHOWERS. SO THE GRAY/WET CONDITIONS CONTINUE...BUT WITH A
MORE N COMPONENT TO THE FLOW...THESE SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO BE
FEWER AND FARTHER BETWEEN. TEMPS A BIT WARMER...MAINLY UPPER 50S
TO MID 60S.

SAT AND SUN...
SFC COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION...WHICH SHOULD FINALLY RELEASE THE REGION FROM
THE GRIPS OF THE CUTOFF. AT THIS POINT WITH DRIER AIR MOVING
IN...MAY ONLY SEE CLOUD COVER WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION MAINLY SAT NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUN. THE DIFFERENCES IN AMPLIFICATION BETWEEN MODELS MAKE
IT DIFFICULT TO TELL EXACTLY HOW DEEP THE COLD AIR GETS SAT NIGHT
INTO SUN...BUT WITH FULL MIXING HIGHS OF LOW-MID 60S ARE NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION WITH LOWS FALLING BACK INTO THE 40S.

MON AND TUE...
HIGH PRES BUILDS IN ACROSS THE AREA WITH DRIER AIR AND MOSTLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS. TEMPS MAY BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS...IF NOT
SLIGHTLY ABOVE DEPENDING ON HOW DEEP THE COOL AIR BECOMES AT THIS
POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE DAY TODAY ALTHOUGH WITH GRADUALLY LOWERING
CIGS. THE MAIN CAVEAT HERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS
/POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES/ MAINLY FOR THE CAPE/ISLANDS THIS MORNING
WITH MVFR /AND POSSIBLY BRIEF IFR/ CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. INCREASING
THREAT FOR SHOWERS LATE.

TONIGHT...

MAIN AREA OF RAIN LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND.
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL BE COMMON ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TERMINALS WITH VFR/MVFR TRENDING TOWARD IFR LATE TONIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...

IFR/MVFR WITH MOST OF THE RAIN CONFINED TO THE INTERIOR. HOWEVER
A NEW AREA OF RAIN SHOULD MOVE ONSHORE TO THE SOUTH COAST LATE IN
THE DAY. E-NE WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY AS WELL.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
EXACT TIMING AND DETAILS.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
EXACT TIMING AND DETAILS.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
MAINLY IFR/MVFR WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE. LOW CIGS AND
VSBYS IN HEAVIER RAIN AND FOG. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER THROUGH
THE PERIOD. CHANCE FOR LLWS ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THU
MORNING WITH UP TO 40 KT POSSIBLE AT AROUND 2KFT ESPECIALLY
TERMINALS N OF THE MASS PIKE.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
IMPROVING TO VFR. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS ON
FRIDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN SOUTHERN NH AND EASTERN MASS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WED/...

TODAY...

STRONGEST SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER THE EASTERN MA
WATERS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. THUS SCA POSTED FOR THAT AREA.
HEAVY RAIN WITH LOW RISK OF T-STORMS ACROSS THIS AREA. ELSEWHERE
LIGHTER WINDS AND SHOWERS.

TONIGHT...

EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS. LOW RISK OF 25 KT OVER CAPE ANN WATERS.
VSBY REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE.

WEDNESDAY...

HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE EMBEDDED THUNDER MOVES SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE WATERS AND THEN ONSHORE LATE IN THE DAY.
NORTHEAST WINDS 15-20 KT. VSBY REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG AND HEAVY
RAIN LATE IN THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WED NIGHT INTO THU...
MAINLY E-NE FLOW ALONG THE WATERS WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU. THEN
SHIFTING TO NW DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THU. A FEW WIND
GUSTS MAY APPROACH GALE FORCE WED NIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE N
WATERS...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ELSEWHERE. THE
WINDS DROP OFF AS THEY SHIFT THU...BUT THEN GUST AGAIN TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATE DAY THU. OTHERWISE...SEAS BUILD WED
NIGHT INTO THU MORNING WITH AT LEAST 5-9 FT SEAS POSSIBLE. SOME
HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU MORNING.

FRI...
LOW PRES MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE...WINDS AND SEAS MAY STILL REACH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS DURING THE DAY FRI AND INTO FRI
NIGHT...BUT EXPECT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT.

SATURDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ250-254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ255-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/DOODY
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY



000
FXUS61 KBOX 211128
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
728 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH LINGERING SHOWERS FRIDAY AS THE STORM SLOWLY PULLS
AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND. MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND
WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
7 AM UPDATE...
ACCORDING TO LATEST MSAS/LAPS MASS FIELDS...LOW PRES NEAR THE
GREAT LAKES IS SLOWLY BEGINNING TO TRANSFER ENERGY TO DEVELOPING
COASTAL WAVE JUST OFF OF THE NJ COAST THIS MORNING. THIS SECONDARY
FEATURE IS ASSISTED BY MODERATE LLJ WHICH IS CURRENTLY
MANIFESTING ITSELF AS A REGION OF MOD-HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS CURRENTLY PASSING JUST TO THE S OF THE
ISLANDS. THIS FEATURES IS EXPECTED TO BRUSH THE CAPE AND ISLANDS
THIS MORNING BEFORE SHIFTING NE AS THE LOW PRES CONTINUES TO
DEVELOP TO THE S. WHAT THIS MEANS IS SHOWERS FOR THE CAPE/ISLANDS
THIS MORNING...WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING -SHRA ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE
INTO THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. TRIED TO REFLECT THIS IN
THE MORNING TAF UPDATE. OTHERWISE...MUCH OF THE FORECAST IS ON
TRACK THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

PER LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TROUGH AMPLIFICATION TAKING PLACE
OVER THE OH VLY INTO PA AND NY STATE. IN RESPONSE TO THIS
AMPLIFICATION WARM CONVEYOR BELT AND ASSOCIATED RAINS DEVELOPING
OVER THE NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN MA INTO SOUTHWEST NH...ALONG WITH
ANOTHER AREA RI...SOUTHEAST MA AND ADJACENT WATERS. THIS SECOND AREA
SHOULD BECOME THE FOCUS FOR POTENTIALLY HEAVIER RAINFALL LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON...AS LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND
INCREASES IN MAGNITUDE ACROSS THIS AREA. THIS DIFFERENTIAL WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL YIELD ELEVATED INSTABILITY INCREASING THE RISK OF
EMBEDDED CONVECTION WITHIN THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT RAINS ACROSS CAPE
COD AND THE ISLANDS LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON.

THE 00Z GUID INCLUDING THE LATEST RAP13/W-ARW/HRRR AND THE 03Z SREF
ARE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON ANY HEAVIER RAINBANDS AND EMBEDDED
CONVECTION TO TRACK OVER THE CAPE AND ISLANDS...AND POSSIBLY
OFFSHORE. THUS HAVE CONFINED CHANCE OF HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDER TO THE
REGION. RISK OF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE FROM ABOUT 15Z TO 21Z TODAY AND
CONFINED TO CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.

ELSEWHERE NOT MUCH APPRECIABLE RAINFALL TODAY. MAINLY PERIODS OF
RAIN AND FOR THE MOST PART ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

AS FOR TEMPS...ON THE MILD SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
ACROSS MUCH OF RI AND SOUTHEAST MA AS WARM SECTOR OVERSPREADS THIS
REGION. FARTHER INLAND COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...

DRY SLOT OVERSPREADS THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF
DRIZZLE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BECOMES TRAPPED BENEATH DRY AIR ALOFT.
FARTHER INLAND ACROSS SOUTHERN NH AND WESTERN MA A STEADIER RAIN IS
POSSIBLE AS COMMA HEAD RAINS MAY CLIP THIS REGION WHILE BULK OF RAIN
IS CONFINED TO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

AS FOR TEMPS...NOT MUCH OF A DROP OFF GIVEN ONSHORE FLOW/CLOUDS AND
LIGHT PRECIP.

WEDNESDAY...

TRAILING SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND THEN
TAKES AIM AT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATER IN THE DAY. STRONG SYNOPTIC
SCALE FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE AND RESULTS IN COASTAL LOW OFF NJ
COAST TO INTENSIFY. THUS SLUG OF HEAVY RAIN LIKELY TO MOVE ONSHORE
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE DAY. IN ADDITION AS DRY SLOT
APPROACHES THETA-E LAPSE RATES BEGIN TO DECREASE. THUS EMBEDDED
CONVECTION POSSIBLE AND WOULD ENHANCE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL. THIS
WILL INCREASE THE RISK URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING AND MAY IMPACT
THE EVENING COMMUTE.

TEMPS SIMILAR AS TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE L60S OVER SOUTHEAST MA AND
COOLING INTO THE 50S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

WITH FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MID TERM REGARDING A
SLOW MEANDERING AND STACKED LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVING JUST TO THE S
OF SRN NEW ENGLAND...A GENERAL CONSENSUS BLEND WILL BE USED AS A
BASELINE FOR THIS FORECAST. FOR THE REMAINDER...TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK...THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT A BIT OF A
HIGHER AMPLIFICATION BIAS /SOMEWHAT TYPICAL OF THIS MODEL/. WHILE
OTHER OPERATIONAL MODELS AND SEVERAL OF IT/S OWN ENSEMBLES ARE
MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH A SECONDARY KICKER WAVE AND HIGH PRES.
THEREFORE...WILL ADD LESS WEIGHT TO THE ECMWF BY THE LATE WEEK AND
WEEKEND-EARLY NEXT WEEK TIME FRAME.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE THE KEY FEATURE INITIALLY IS A SLOW MOVING
CUTOFF LOW PRES WITH ATTENDANT OCCLUDING SFC LOW THROUGH LATE IN
THE WEEK. IT/S NOT UNTIL A KICKER WAVE /DEEPENING WAVE EJECTING
OUT OF THE CANADIAN W/ MOVES IN ON SAT THAT THE LOW PRES MOVES
FULLY INTO THE MARITIMES AND ALLOWS DRIER AIR TO FULLY BUILD IN.
THEREFORE...EXPECT THE WET/GRAY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRI
WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT FROM THEN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DETAILS...

WED NIGHT INTO THU...
AT THIS POINT ALL FEATURES LINE UP FOR THE POTENTIALLY WETTEST
PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. IN ESSENCE A REINFORCING LLJ /ABOUT 40+ KT
MAINLY N OF THE BOX CWA/ MOVES IN COMBINED WITH UPPER LVL DRY SLOT
AND NEAR 6.0+ C/KM LAPSE RATES. THEREFORE...LOOKS LIKE A DECENT
SETUP FOR CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WITH THIS LLJ PARTICULARLY BETWEEN
00Z AND 12Z ON THU. WITH MODEST PWATS UP TO 1.5 INCHES /ABOUT 2+
STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL/. COULD SEE POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAIN
THROUGH THE PERIOD...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
ON THU AS THE LLJ AND DRY SLOT SHIFT N. RIGHT NOW THE PRIMARY
THREAT WOULD BE THE TYPICAL URBAN AREAS WHERE DRAINAGE IS POOR FOR
ANY NUISANCE FLOODING...BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS OVER
THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. OTHERWISE...THE GRAY/DAMP CONDITIONS
CONTINUE WITH ONSHORE FLOW AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE/CLOUD COVER. DUE
TO THIS CLOUD COVER...SUSPECT THAT LOWS REMAIN MAINLY IN THE 50S
AND HIGHS ONLY RISE INTO THE MID 50S AND LOW 60S.

FRI...
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AS THE UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OF
CANADA BEGINS TO FORCE THE UPPER LVL CUTOFF TO THE E AND WEAKENS
IT. STILL ENOUGH UPPER LVL COOL AIR AND MOISTURE TO SUPPORT A FEW
MORE SHOWERS. SO THE GRAY/WET CONDITIONS CONTINUE...BUT WITH A
MORE N COMPONENT TO THE FLOW...THESE SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO BE
FEWER AND FARTHER BETWEEN. TEMPS A BIT WARMER...MAINLY UPPER 50S
TO MID 60S.

SAT AND SUN...
SFC COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION...WHICH SHOULD FINALLY RELEASE THE REGION FROM
THE GRIPS OF THE CUTOFF. AT THIS POINT WITH DRIER AIR MOVING
IN...MAY ONLY SEE CLOUD COVER WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION MAINLY SAT NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUN. THE DIFFERENCES IN AMPLIFICATION BETWEEN MODELS MAKE
IT DIFFICULT TO TELL EXACTLY HOW DEEP THE COLD AIR GETS SAT NIGHT
INTO SUN...BUT WITH FULL MIXING HIGHS OF LOW-MID 60S ARE NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION WITH LOWS FALLING BACK INTO THE 40S.

MON AND TUE...
HIGH PRES BUILDS IN ACROSS THE AREA WITH DRIER AIR AND MOSTLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS. TEMPS MAY BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS...IF NOT
SLIGHTLY ABOVE DEPENDING ON HOW DEEP THE COOL AIR BECOMES AT THIS
POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE DAY TODAY ALTHOUGH WITH GRADUALLY LOWERING
CIGS. THE MAIN CAVEAT HERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS
/POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES/ MAINLY FOR THE CAPE/ISLANDS THIS MORNING
WITH MVFR /AND POSSIBLY BRIEF IFR/ CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. INCREASING
THREAT FOR SHOWERS LATE.

TONIGHT...

MAIN AREA OF RAIN LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND.
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL BE COMMON ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TERMINALS WITH VFR/MVFR TRENDING TOWARD IFR LATE TONIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...

IFR/MVFR WITH MOST OF THE RAIN CONFINED TO THE INTERIOR. HOWEVER
A NEW AREA OF RAIN SHOULD MOVE ONSHORE TO THE SOUTH COAST LATE IN
THE DAY. E-NE WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY AS WELL.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
EXACT TIMING AND DETAILS.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
EXACT TIMING AND DETAILS.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
MAINLY IFR/MVFR WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE. LOW CIGS AND
VSBYS IN HEAVIER RAIN AND FOG. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER THROUGH
THE PERIOD. CHANCE FOR LLWS ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THU
MORNING WITH UP TO 40 KT POSSIBLE AT AROUND 2KFT ESPECIALLY
TERMINALS N OF THE MASS PIKE.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
IMPROVING TO VFR. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS ON
FRIDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN SOUTHERN NH AND EASTERN MASS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WED/...

TODAY...

STRONGEST SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER THE EASTERN MA
WATERS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. THUS SCA POSTED FOR THAT AREA.
HEAVY RAIN WITH LOW RISK OF T-STORMS ACROSS THIS AREA. ELSEWHERE
LIGHTER WINDS AND SHOWERS.

TONIGHT...

EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS. LOW RISK OF 25 KT OVER CAPE ANN WATERS.
VSBY REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE.

WEDNESDAY...

HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE EMBEDDED THUNDER MOVES SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE WATERS AND THEN ONSHORE LATE IN THE DAY.
NORTHEAST WINDS 15-20 KT. VSBY REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG AND HEAVY
RAIN LATE IN THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WED NIGHT INTO THU...
MAINLY E-NE FLOW ALONG THE WATERS WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU. THEN
SHIFTING TO NW DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THU. A FEW WIND
GUSTS MAY APPROACH GALE FORCE WED NIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE N
WATERS...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ELSEWHERE. THE
WINDS DROP OFF AS THEY SHIFT THU...BUT THEN GUST AGAIN TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATE DAY THU. OTHERWISE...SEAS BUILD WED
NIGHT INTO THU MORNING WITH AT LEAST 5-9 FT SEAS POSSIBLE. SOME
HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU MORNING.

FRI...
LOW PRES MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE...WINDS AND SEAS MAY STILL REACH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS DURING THE DAY FRI AND INTO FRI
NIGHT...BUT EXPECT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT.

SATURDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ250-254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ255-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/DOODY
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KALY 211050
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
650 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT. IT WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
WEDNESDAY...AND THEN NORTHEAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY.
A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND INTERMITTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EXCEPT FOR SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY TEMP GRIDS IN ORDER TO
REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS...NO CHANGES MADE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL BE IN THE PROCESS DEVELOPING INTO A
CLOSED UPPER LOW TODAY AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
FOR TODAY THE FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. RADAR PICS AS OF 430 AM SHOW ENOUGH PCPN
COVERAGE TO WARRANT INCREASING POPS TO LIKELY IN ALL AREAS
TODAY...AND TO CATEGORICAL LEVELS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
REGION. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH
A SURFACE LOW ALSO DEVELOPING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. AS THIS
EVOLUTION TAKES PLACE...THERE WILL BE A DROP OFF IN PCPN ACTIVITY
TONIGHT AND HAVE FORECAST MAINLY CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FURTHER OUT TO SEA...THE FORECAST
AREA WILL GET INTO THE WARM CONVEYOR BAND OF PCPN AS ATLANTIC
MOISTURE SURGES WESTWARD ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW. AS A
RESULT...PCPN WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AGAIN DURING WEDNESDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HAVE RAISED POPS TO CATEGORICAL BY
LATER WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AND CONTINUE TO FORECAST
CATEGORICAL POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE ON
THURSDAY...HAVE LOWERED POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA...BUT CATEGORICAL POPS CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHEAST
HALF.

LOWS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS WILL BE IN THE 40S. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT ON THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A VERTICALLY STACKED
LOW STILL CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF CAPE COD...WITH A SPRAWLING
CYCLONIC NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING TO BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE
REGION. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE NORTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WHERE
LIKELY POPS ARE MENTIONED. MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY START TO PULL EASTWARD AND OUT TO SEA
ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...OUR REGION WILL STILL BE UNDER A CYCLONIC FLOW
REGIME SO SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. IT WILL CONTINUE TO
BE COOL AND DAMP...WITH OVERCAST SKIES RESULTING IN NOT MUCH
POTENTIAL FOR WARMING.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL DECREASE FURTHER FRIDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH A
FEW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY
AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE WESTERLY. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS
TO THE WEEKEND FORECAST...AS THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW FAR SOUTH AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM SOUTHERN CANADA DIGS OVER THE
NORTHEAST CONUS. THE GFS IS THE MOST OPTIMISTIC IN TERMS OF KEEPING
THE BRUNT OF THE TROUGH NORTH OF THE REGION WITH MILD TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER...THE ECMWF AND THE CMC TO AN EXTENT...DEPICTS THE TROUGH
DIGGING FARTHER SOUTH AND ALLOWING FOR COLDER AIR TO WORK INTO THE
REGION WITH SOME MOUNTAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN A DEVELOPING CYCLONIC
FLOW REGIME.

SO BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THE WEEKEND HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR WARMER THAN
NORMAL TEMPS AND MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE...OR COOLER TEMPS AND
MORE CLOUDS. WE WILL HAVE TO SEE WHICH WAY THE MODELS TREND AS THE
WEEKEND NEARS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS TODAY...AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY AND INTO THIS
EVENING...AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE REGION. WILL MENTION PREVAILING SHOWERS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH IT WILL NOT BE RAINING THE ENTIRE TIME AS
BATCHES OF SHOWERS WILL PERIODICALLY MOVE THROUGH.

FLYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN VFR RANGE THROUGH MUCH OF
TODAY...WITH CIGS ONLY GRADUALLY DECREASING. BY THIS EVENING THERE
WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR MVFR CONDITIONS AT THE TERMINALS WITH
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS CONTINUING.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING NORTH-NORTHEAST AROUND 5
KTS BY THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT. IT WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
WEDNESDAY...AND THEN NORTHEAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY.
A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND INTERMITTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...EVEN
THOUGH WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF SOUTH AND EAST THE REGION. INTERMITTENT RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED FROM TODAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST
RAINFALL EXPECTED FOR LATE WED INTO EARLY THU.

WITH THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR...ESP LATE WED INTO EARLY THU. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO
TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA
DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL
WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD OF A FEW DAYS...SO NO WIDESPREAD
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS
THAT THE GREATEST AMTS WOULD BE FAVORED ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...ESP SOUTHERN VT...AND POSSIBLY THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS...WITH LESS AMTS OCCURRING WITHIN THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY DUE TO DOWNSLOPING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM








000
FXUS61 KALY 211050
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
650 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT. IT WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
WEDNESDAY...AND THEN NORTHEAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY.
A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND INTERMITTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EXCEPT FOR SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY TEMP GRIDS IN ORDER TO
REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS...NO CHANGES MADE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL BE IN THE PROCESS DEVELOPING INTO A
CLOSED UPPER LOW TODAY AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
FOR TODAY THE FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. RADAR PICS AS OF 430 AM SHOW ENOUGH PCPN
COVERAGE TO WARRANT INCREASING POPS TO LIKELY IN ALL AREAS
TODAY...AND TO CATEGORICAL LEVELS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
REGION. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH
A SURFACE LOW ALSO DEVELOPING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. AS THIS
EVOLUTION TAKES PLACE...THERE WILL BE A DROP OFF IN PCPN ACTIVITY
TONIGHT AND HAVE FORECAST MAINLY CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FURTHER OUT TO SEA...THE FORECAST
AREA WILL GET INTO THE WARM CONVEYOR BAND OF PCPN AS ATLANTIC
MOISTURE SURGES WESTWARD ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW. AS A
RESULT...PCPN WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AGAIN DURING WEDNESDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HAVE RAISED POPS TO CATEGORICAL BY
LATER WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AND CONTINUE TO FORECAST
CATEGORICAL POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE ON
THURSDAY...HAVE LOWERED POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA...BUT CATEGORICAL POPS CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHEAST
HALF.

LOWS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS WILL BE IN THE 40S. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT ON THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A VERTICALLY STACKED
LOW STILL CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF CAPE COD...WITH A SPRAWLING
CYCLONIC NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING TO BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE
REGION. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE NORTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WHERE
LIKELY POPS ARE MENTIONED. MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY START TO PULL EASTWARD AND OUT TO SEA
ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...OUR REGION WILL STILL BE UNDER A CYCLONIC FLOW
REGIME SO SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. IT WILL CONTINUE TO
BE COOL AND DAMP...WITH OVERCAST SKIES RESULTING IN NOT MUCH
POTENTIAL FOR WARMING.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL DECREASE FURTHER FRIDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH A
FEW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY
AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE WESTERLY. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS
TO THE WEEKEND FORECAST...AS THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW FAR SOUTH AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM SOUTHERN CANADA DIGS OVER THE
NORTHEAST CONUS. THE GFS IS THE MOST OPTIMISTIC IN TERMS OF KEEPING
THE BRUNT OF THE TROUGH NORTH OF THE REGION WITH MILD TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER...THE ECMWF AND THE CMC TO AN EXTENT...DEPICTS THE TROUGH
DIGGING FARTHER SOUTH AND ALLOWING FOR COLDER AIR TO WORK INTO THE
REGION WITH SOME MOUNTAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN A DEVELOPING CYCLONIC
FLOW REGIME.

SO BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THE WEEKEND HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR WARMER THAN
NORMAL TEMPS AND MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE...OR COOLER TEMPS AND
MORE CLOUDS. WE WILL HAVE TO SEE WHICH WAY THE MODELS TREND AS THE
WEEKEND NEARS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS TODAY...AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY AND INTO THIS
EVENING...AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE REGION. WILL MENTION PREVAILING SHOWERS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH IT WILL NOT BE RAINING THE ENTIRE TIME AS
BATCHES OF SHOWERS WILL PERIODICALLY MOVE THROUGH.

FLYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN VFR RANGE THROUGH MUCH OF
TODAY...WITH CIGS ONLY GRADUALLY DECREASING. BY THIS EVENING THERE
WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR MVFR CONDITIONS AT THE TERMINALS WITH
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS CONTINUING.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING NORTH-NORTHEAST AROUND 5
KTS BY THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT. IT WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
WEDNESDAY...AND THEN NORTHEAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY.
A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND INTERMITTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...EVEN
THOUGH WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF SOUTH AND EAST THE REGION. INTERMITTENT RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED FROM TODAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST
RAINFALL EXPECTED FOR LATE WED INTO EARLY THU.

WITH THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR...ESP LATE WED INTO EARLY THU. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO
TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA
DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL
WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD OF A FEW DAYS...SO NO WIDESPREAD
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS
THAT THE GREATEST AMTS WOULD BE FAVORED ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...ESP SOUTHERN VT...AND POSSIBLY THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS...WITH LESS AMTS OCCURRING WITHIN THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY DUE TO DOWNSLOPING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM








000
FXUS61 KALY 211050
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
650 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT. IT WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
WEDNESDAY...AND THEN NORTHEAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY.
A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND INTERMITTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EXCEPT FOR SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY TEMP GRIDS IN ORDER TO
REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS...NO CHANGES MADE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL BE IN THE PROCESS DEVELOPING INTO A
CLOSED UPPER LOW TODAY AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
FOR TODAY THE FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. RADAR PICS AS OF 430 AM SHOW ENOUGH PCPN
COVERAGE TO WARRANT INCREASING POPS TO LIKELY IN ALL AREAS
TODAY...AND TO CATEGORICAL LEVELS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
REGION. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH
A SURFACE LOW ALSO DEVELOPING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. AS THIS
EVOLUTION TAKES PLACE...THERE WILL BE A DROP OFF IN PCPN ACTIVITY
TONIGHT AND HAVE FORECAST MAINLY CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FURTHER OUT TO SEA...THE FORECAST
AREA WILL GET INTO THE WARM CONVEYOR BAND OF PCPN AS ATLANTIC
MOISTURE SURGES WESTWARD ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW. AS A
RESULT...PCPN WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AGAIN DURING WEDNESDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HAVE RAISED POPS TO CATEGORICAL BY
LATER WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AND CONTINUE TO FORECAST
CATEGORICAL POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE ON
THURSDAY...HAVE LOWERED POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA...BUT CATEGORICAL POPS CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHEAST
HALF.

LOWS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS WILL BE IN THE 40S. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT ON THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A VERTICALLY STACKED
LOW STILL CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF CAPE COD...WITH A SPRAWLING
CYCLONIC NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING TO BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE
REGION. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE NORTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WHERE
LIKELY POPS ARE MENTIONED. MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY START TO PULL EASTWARD AND OUT TO SEA
ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...OUR REGION WILL STILL BE UNDER A CYCLONIC FLOW
REGIME SO SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. IT WILL CONTINUE TO
BE COOL AND DAMP...WITH OVERCAST SKIES RESULTING IN NOT MUCH
POTENTIAL FOR WARMING.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL DECREASE FURTHER FRIDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH A
FEW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY
AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE WESTERLY. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS
TO THE WEEKEND FORECAST...AS THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW FAR SOUTH AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM SOUTHERN CANADA DIGS OVER THE
NORTHEAST CONUS. THE GFS IS THE MOST OPTIMISTIC IN TERMS OF KEEPING
THE BRUNT OF THE TROUGH NORTH OF THE REGION WITH MILD TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER...THE ECMWF AND THE CMC TO AN EXTENT...DEPICTS THE TROUGH
DIGGING FARTHER SOUTH AND ALLOWING FOR COLDER AIR TO WORK INTO THE
REGION WITH SOME MOUNTAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN A DEVELOPING CYCLONIC
FLOW REGIME.

SO BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THE WEEKEND HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR WARMER THAN
NORMAL TEMPS AND MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE...OR COOLER TEMPS AND
MORE CLOUDS. WE WILL HAVE TO SEE WHICH WAY THE MODELS TREND AS THE
WEEKEND NEARS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS TODAY...AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY AND INTO THIS
EVENING...AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE REGION. WILL MENTION PREVAILING SHOWERS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH IT WILL NOT BE RAINING THE ENTIRE TIME AS
BATCHES OF SHOWERS WILL PERIODICALLY MOVE THROUGH.

FLYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN VFR RANGE THROUGH MUCH OF
TODAY...WITH CIGS ONLY GRADUALLY DECREASING. BY THIS EVENING THERE
WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR MVFR CONDITIONS AT THE TERMINALS WITH
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS CONTINUING.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING NORTH-NORTHEAST AROUND 5
KTS BY THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT. IT WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
WEDNESDAY...AND THEN NORTHEAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY.
A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND INTERMITTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...EVEN
THOUGH WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF SOUTH AND EAST THE REGION. INTERMITTENT RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED FROM TODAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST
RAINFALL EXPECTED FOR LATE WED INTO EARLY THU.

WITH THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR...ESP LATE WED INTO EARLY THU. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO
TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA
DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL
WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD OF A FEW DAYS...SO NO WIDESPREAD
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS
THAT THE GREATEST AMTS WOULD BE FAVORED ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...ESP SOUTHERN VT...AND POSSIBLY THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS...WITH LESS AMTS OCCURRING WITHIN THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY DUE TO DOWNSLOPING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM








000
FXUS61 KALY 211050
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
650 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT. IT WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
WEDNESDAY...AND THEN NORTHEAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY.
A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND INTERMITTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EXCEPT FOR SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY TEMP GRIDS IN ORDER TO
REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS...NO CHANGES MADE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL BE IN THE PROCESS DEVELOPING INTO A
CLOSED UPPER LOW TODAY AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
FOR TODAY THE FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. RADAR PICS AS OF 430 AM SHOW ENOUGH PCPN
COVERAGE TO WARRANT INCREASING POPS TO LIKELY IN ALL AREAS
TODAY...AND TO CATEGORICAL LEVELS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
REGION. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH
A SURFACE LOW ALSO DEVELOPING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. AS THIS
EVOLUTION TAKES PLACE...THERE WILL BE A DROP OFF IN PCPN ACTIVITY
TONIGHT AND HAVE FORECAST MAINLY CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FURTHER OUT TO SEA...THE FORECAST
AREA WILL GET INTO THE WARM CONVEYOR BAND OF PCPN AS ATLANTIC
MOISTURE SURGES WESTWARD ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW. AS A
RESULT...PCPN WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AGAIN DURING WEDNESDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HAVE RAISED POPS TO CATEGORICAL BY
LATER WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AND CONTINUE TO FORECAST
CATEGORICAL POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE ON
THURSDAY...HAVE LOWERED POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA...BUT CATEGORICAL POPS CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHEAST
HALF.

LOWS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS WILL BE IN THE 40S. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT ON THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A VERTICALLY STACKED
LOW STILL CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF CAPE COD...WITH A SPRAWLING
CYCLONIC NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING TO BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE
REGION. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE NORTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WHERE
LIKELY POPS ARE MENTIONED. MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY START TO PULL EASTWARD AND OUT TO SEA
ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...OUR REGION WILL STILL BE UNDER A CYCLONIC FLOW
REGIME SO SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. IT WILL CONTINUE TO
BE COOL AND DAMP...WITH OVERCAST SKIES RESULTING IN NOT MUCH
POTENTIAL FOR WARMING.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL DECREASE FURTHER FRIDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH A
FEW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY
AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE WESTERLY. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS
TO THE WEEKEND FORECAST...AS THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW FAR SOUTH AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM SOUTHERN CANADA DIGS OVER THE
NORTHEAST CONUS. THE GFS IS THE MOST OPTIMISTIC IN TERMS OF KEEPING
THE BRUNT OF THE TROUGH NORTH OF THE REGION WITH MILD TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER...THE ECMWF AND THE CMC TO AN EXTENT...DEPICTS THE TROUGH
DIGGING FARTHER SOUTH AND ALLOWING FOR COLDER AIR TO WORK INTO THE
REGION WITH SOME MOUNTAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN A DEVELOPING CYCLONIC
FLOW REGIME.

SO BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THE WEEKEND HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR WARMER THAN
NORMAL TEMPS AND MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE...OR COOLER TEMPS AND
MORE CLOUDS. WE WILL HAVE TO SEE WHICH WAY THE MODELS TREND AS THE
WEEKEND NEARS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS TODAY...AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY AND INTO THIS
EVENING...AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE REGION. WILL MENTION PREVAILING SHOWERS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH IT WILL NOT BE RAINING THE ENTIRE TIME AS
BATCHES OF SHOWERS WILL PERIODICALLY MOVE THROUGH.

FLYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN VFR RANGE THROUGH MUCH OF
TODAY...WITH CIGS ONLY GRADUALLY DECREASING. BY THIS EVENING THERE
WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR MVFR CONDITIONS AT THE TERMINALS WITH
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS CONTINUING.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING NORTH-NORTHEAST AROUND 5
KTS BY THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT. IT WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
WEDNESDAY...AND THEN NORTHEAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY.
A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND INTERMITTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...EVEN
THOUGH WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF SOUTH AND EAST THE REGION. INTERMITTENT RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED FROM TODAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST
RAINFALL EXPECTED FOR LATE WED INTO EARLY THU.

WITH THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR...ESP LATE WED INTO EARLY THU. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO
TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA
DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL
WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD OF A FEW DAYS...SO NO WIDESPREAD
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS
THAT THE GREATEST AMTS WOULD BE FAVORED ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...ESP SOUTHERN VT...AND POSSIBLY THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS...WITH LESS AMTS OCCURRING WITHIN THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY DUE TO DOWNSLOPING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM








000
FXUS61 KALY 211050
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
650 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT. IT WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
WEDNESDAY...AND THEN NORTHEAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY.
A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND INTERMITTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EXCEPT FOR SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY TEMP GRIDS IN ORDER TO
REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS...NO CHANGES MADE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL BE IN THE PROCESS DEVELOPING INTO A
CLOSED UPPER LOW TODAY AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
FOR TODAY THE FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. RADAR PICS AS OF 430 AM SHOW ENOUGH PCPN
COVERAGE TO WARRANT INCREASING POPS TO LIKELY IN ALL AREAS
TODAY...AND TO CATEGORICAL LEVELS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
REGION. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH
A SURFACE LOW ALSO DEVELOPING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. AS THIS
EVOLUTION TAKES PLACE...THERE WILL BE A DROP OFF IN PCPN ACTIVITY
TONIGHT AND HAVE FORECAST MAINLY CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FURTHER OUT TO SEA...THE FORECAST
AREA WILL GET INTO THE WARM CONVEYOR BAND OF PCPN AS ATLANTIC
MOISTURE SURGES WESTWARD ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW. AS A
RESULT...PCPN WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AGAIN DURING WEDNESDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HAVE RAISED POPS TO CATEGORICAL BY
LATER WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AND CONTINUE TO FORECAST
CATEGORICAL POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE ON
THURSDAY...HAVE LOWERED POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA...BUT CATEGORICAL POPS CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHEAST
HALF.

LOWS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS WILL BE IN THE 40S. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT ON THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A VERTICALLY STACKED
LOW STILL CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF CAPE COD...WITH A SPRAWLING
CYCLONIC NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING TO BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE
REGION. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE NORTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WHERE
LIKELY POPS ARE MENTIONED. MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY START TO PULL EASTWARD AND OUT TO SEA
ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...OUR REGION WILL STILL BE UNDER A CYCLONIC FLOW
REGIME SO SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. IT WILL CONTINUE TO
BE COOL AND DAMP...WITH OVERCAST SKIES RESULTING IN NOT MUCH
POTENTIAL FOR WARMING.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL DECREASE FURTHER FRIDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH A
FEW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY
AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE WESTERLY. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS
TO THE WEEKEND FORECAST...AS THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW FAR SOUTH AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM SOUTHERN CANADA DIGS OVER THE
NORTHEAST CONUS. THE GFS IS THE MOST OPTIMISTIC IN TERMS OF KEEPING
THE BRUNT OF THE TROUGH NORTH OF THE REGION WITH MILD TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER...THE ECMWF AND THE CMC TO AN EXTENT...DEPICTS THE TROUGH
DIGGING FARTHER SOUTH AND ALLOWING FOR COLDER AIR TO WORK INTO THE
REGION WITH SOME MOUNTAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN A DEVELOPING CYCLONIC
FLOW REGIME.

SO BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THE WEEKEND HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR WARMER THAN
NORMAL TEMPS AND MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE...OR COOLER TEMPS AND
MORE CLOUDS. WE WILL HAVE TO SEE WHICH WAY THE MODELS TREND AS THE
WEEKEND NEARS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS TODAY...AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY AND INTO THIS
EVENING...AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE REGION. WILL MENTION PREVAILING SHOWERS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH IT WILL NOT BE RAINING THE ENTIRE TIME AS
BATCHES OF SHOWERS WILL PERIODICALLY MOVE THROUGH.

FLYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN VFR RANGE THROUGH MUCH OF
TODAY...WITH CIGS ONLY GRADUALLY DECREASING. BY THIS EVENING THERE
WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR MVFR CONDITIONS AT THE TERMINALS WITH
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS CONTINUING.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING NORTH-NORTHEAST AROUND 5
KTS BY THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT. IT WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
WEDNESDAY...AND THEN NORTHEAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY.
A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND INTERMITTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...EVEN
THOUGH WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF SOUTH AND EAST THE REGION. INTERMITTENT RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED FROM TODAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST
RAINFALL EXPECTED FOR LATE WED INTO EARLY THU.

WITH THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR...ESP LATE WED INTO EARLY THU. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO
TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA
DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL
WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD OF A FEW DAYS...SO NO WIDESPREAD
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS
THAT THE GREATEST AMTS WOULD BE FAVORED ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...ESP SOUTHERN VT...AND POSSIBLY THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS...WITH LESS AMTS OCCURRING WITHIN THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY DUE TO DOWNSLOPING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM







000
FXUS61 KALY 211050
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
650 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT. IT WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
WEDNESDAY...AND THEN NORTHEAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY.
A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND INTERMITTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EXCEPT FOR SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY TEMP GRIDS IN ORDER TO
REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS...NO CHANGES MADE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL BE IN THE PROCESS DEVELOPING INTO A
CLOSED UPPER LOW TODAY AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
FOR TODAY THE FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. RADAR PICS AS OF 430 AM SHOW ENOUGH PCPN
COVERAGE TO WARRANT INCREASING POPS TO LIKELY IN ALL AREAS
TODAY...AND TO CATEGORICAL LEVELS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
REGION. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH
A SURFACE LOW ALSO DEVELOPING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. AS THIS
EVOLUTION TAKES PLACE...THERE WILL BE A DROP OFF IN PCPN ACTIVITY
TONIGHT AND HAVE FORECAST MAINLY CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FURTHER OUT TO SEA...THE FORECAST
AREA WILL GET INTO THE WARM CONVEYOR BAND OF PCPN AS ATLANTIC
MOISTURE SURGES WESTWARD ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW. AS A
RESULT...PCPN WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AGAIN DURING WEDNESDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HAVE RAISED POPS TO CATEGORICAL BY
LATER WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AND CONTINUE TO FORECAST
CATEGORICAL POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE ON
THURSDAY...HAVE LOWERED POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA...BUT CATEGORICAL POPS CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHEAST
HALF.

LOWS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS WILL BE IN THE 40S. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT ON THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A VERTICALLY STACKED
LOW STILL CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF CAPE COD...WITH A SPRAWLING
CYCLONIC NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING TO BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE
REGION. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE NORTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WHERE
LIKELY POPS ARE MENTIONED. MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY START TO PULL EASTWARD AND OUT TO SEA
ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...OUR REGION WILL STILL BE UNDER A CYCLONIC FLOW
REGIME SO SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. IT WILL CONTINUE TO
BE COOL AND DAMP...WITH OVERCAST SKIES RESULTING IN NOT MUCH
POTENTIAL FOR WARMING.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL DECREASE FURTHER FRIDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH A
FEW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY
AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE WESTERLY. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS
TO THE WEEKEND FORECAST...AS THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW FAR SOUTH AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM SOUTHERN CANADA DIGS OVER THE
NORTHEAST CONUS. THE GFS IS THE MOST OPTIMISTIC IN TERMS OF KEEPING
THE BRUNT OF THE TROUGH NORTH OF THE REGION WITH MILD TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER...THE ECMWF AND THE CMC TO AN EXTENT...DEPICTS THE TROUGH
DIGGING FARTHER SOUTH AND ALLOWING FOR COLDER AIR TO WORK INTO THE
REGION WITH SOME MOUNTAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN A DEVELOPING CYCLONIC
FLOW REGIME.

SO BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THE WEEKEND HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR WARMER THAN
NORMAL TEMPS AND MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE...OR COOLER TEMPS AND
MORE CLOUDS. WE WILL HAVE TO SEE WHICH WAY THE MODELS TREND AS THE
WEEKEND NEARS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS TODAY...AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY AND INTO THIS
EVENING...AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE REGION. WILL MENTION PREVAILING SHOWERS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH IT WILL NOT BE RAINING THE ENTIRE TIME AS
BATCHES OF SHOWERS WILL PERIODICALLY MOVE THROUGH.

FLYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN VFR RANGE THROUGH MUCH OF
TODAY...WITH CIGS ONLY GRADUALLY DECREASING. BY THIS EVENING THERE
WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR MVFR CONDITIONS AT THE TERMINALS WITH
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS CONTINUING.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING NORTH-NORTHEAST AROUND 5
KTS BY THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT. IT WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
WEDNESDAY...AND THEN NORTHEAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY.
A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND INTERMITTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...EVEN
THOUGH WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF SOUTH AND EAST THE REGION. INTERMITTENT RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED FROM TODAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST
RAINFALL EXPECTED FOR LATE WED INTO EARLY THU.

WITH THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR...ESP LATE WED INTO EARLY THU. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO
TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA
DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL
WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD OF A FEW DAYS...SO NO WIDESPREAD
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS
THAT THE GREATEST AMTS WOULD BE FAVORED ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...ESP SOUTHERN VT...AND POSSIBLY THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS...WITH LESS AMTS OCCURRING WITHIN THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY DUE TO DOWNSLOPING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM








000
FXUS61 KALY 211016
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
617 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT. IT WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
WEDNESDAY...AND THEN NORTHEAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY.
A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND INTERMITTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM TODAY/...
EXCEPT FOR SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY TEMP GRIDS IN ORDER TO
REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS...NO CHANGES MADE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL BE IN THE PROCESS DEVELOPING INTO A
CLOSED UPPER LOW TODAY AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
FOR TODAY THE FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. RADAR PICS AS OF 430 AM SHOW ENOUGH PCPN
COVERAGE TO WARRANT INCREASING POPS TO LIKELY IN ALL AREAS
TODAY...AND TO CATEGORICAL LEVELS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
REGION. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH
A SURFACE LOW ALSO DEVELOPING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. AS THIS
EVOLUTION TAKES PLACE...THERE WILL BE A DROP OFF IN PCPN ACTIVITY
TONIGHT AND HAVE FORECAST MAINLY CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FURTHER OUT TO SEA...THE FORECAST
AREA WILL GET INTO THE WARM CONVEYOR BAND OF PCPN AS ATLANTIC
MOISTURE SURGES WESTWARD ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW. AS A
RESULT...PCPN WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AGAIN DURING WEDNESDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HAVE RAISED POPS TO CATEGORICAL BY
LATER WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AND CONTINUE TO FORECAST
CATEGORICAL POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE ON
THURSDAY...HAVE LOWERED POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA...BUT CATEGORICAL POPS CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHEAST
HALF.

LOWS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS WILL BE IN THE 40S. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT ON THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A VERTICALLY STACKED
LOW STILL CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF CAPE COD...WITH A SPRAWLING
CYCLONIC NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING TO BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE
REGION. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE NORTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WHERE
LIKELY POPS ARE MENTIONED. MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY START TO PULL EASTWARD AND OUT TO SEA
ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...OUR REGION WILL STILL BE UNDER A CYCLONIC FLOW
REGIME SO SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. IT WILL CONTINUE TO
BE COOL AND DAMP...WITH OVERCAST SKIES RESULTING IN NOT MUCH
POTENTIAL FOR WARMING.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL DECREASE FURTHER FRIDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH A
FEW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY
AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE WESTERLY. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS
TO THE WEEKEND FORECAST...AS THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW FAR SOUTH AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM SOUTHERN CANADA DIGS OVER THE
NORTHEAST CONUS. THE GFS IS THE MOST OPTIMISTIC IN TERMS OF KEEPING
THE BRUNT OF THE TROUGH NORTH OF THE REGION WITH MILD TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER...THE ECMWF AND THE CMC TO AN EXTENT...DEPICTS THE TROUGH
DIGGING FARTHER SOUTH AND ALLOWING FOR COLDER AIR TO WORK INTO THE
REGION WITH SOME MOUNTAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN A DEVELOPING CYCLONIC
FLOW REGIME.

SO BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THE WEEKEND HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR WARMER THAN
NORMAL TEMPS AND MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE...OR COOLER TEMPS AND
MORE CLOUDS. WE WILL HAVE TO SEE WHICH WAY THE MODELS TREND AS THE
WEEKEND NEARS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO THIS MORNING...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVES INTO THE AREA. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
REST OF THE DAY AND TONIGHT...AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION. WILL MENTION PREVAILING SHOWERS
DURING THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD...ALTHOUGH IT WILL NOT BE RAINING THE
ENTIRE TIME AS BATCHES OF SHOWERS WILL PERIODICALLY MOVE THROUGH.

FLYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN VFR RANGE INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH CIGS ONLY GRADUALLY DECREASING. BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR
CIGS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE AT HIGHER ELEVATION SITE KPSF. BY THIS
EVENING THERE WILL BE A SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE FOR MVFR CONDITIONS
AT THE KALB/KPOU/KGFL TERMINALS WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS CONTINUING.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING NORTH-NORTHEAST AROUND 5
KT BY THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PDS RA.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT. IT WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
WEDNESDAY...AND THEN NORTHEAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY.
A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND INTERMITTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...EVEN
THOUGH WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF SOUTH AND EAST THE REGION. INTERMITTENT RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED FROM TODAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST
RAINFALL EXPECTED FOR LATE WED INTO EARLY THU.

WITH THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR...ESP LATE WED INTO EARLY THU. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO
TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA
DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL
WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD OF A FEW DAYS...SO NO WIDESPREAD
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS
THAT THE GREATEST AMTS WOULD BE FAVORED ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...ESP SOUTHERN VT...AND POSSIBLY THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS...WITH LESS AMTS OCCURRING WITHIN THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY DUE TO DOWNSLOPING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM












000
FXUS61 KALY 211016
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
617 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT. IT WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
WEDNESDAY...AND THEN NORTHEAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY.
A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND INTERMITTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM TODAY/...
EXCEPT FOR SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY TEMP GRIDS IN ORDER TO
REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS...NO CHANGES MADE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL BE IN THE PROCESS DEVELOPING INTO A
CLOSED UPPER LOW TODAY AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
FOR TODAY THE FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. RADAR PICS AS OF 430 AM SHOW ENOUGH PCPN
COVERAGE TO WARRANT INCREASING POPS TO LIKELY IN ALL AREAS
TODAY...AND TO CATEGORICAL LEVELS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
REGION. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH
A SURFACE LOW ALSO DEVELOPING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. AS THIS
EVOLUTION TAKES PLACE...THERE WILL BE A DROP OFF IN PCPN ACTIVITY
TONIGHT AND HAVE FORECAST MAINLY CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FURTHER OUT TO SEA...THE FORECAST
AREA WILL GET INTO THE WARM CONVEYOR BAND OF PCPN AS ATLANTIC
MOISTURE SURGES WESTWARD ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW. AS A
RESULT...PCPN WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AGAIN DURING WEDNESDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HAVE RAISED POPS TO CATEGORICAL BY
LATER WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AND CONTINUE TO FORECAST
CATEGORICAL POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE ON
THURSDAY...HAVE LOWERED POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA...BUT CATEGORICAL POPS CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHEAST
HALF.

LOWS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS WILL BE IN THE 40S. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT ON THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A VERTICALLY STACKED
LOW STILL CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF CAPE COD...WITH A SPRAWLING
CYCLONIC NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING TO BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE
REGION. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE NORTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WHERE
LIKELY POPS ARE MENTIONED. MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY START TO PULL EASTWARD AND OUT TO SEA
ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...OUR REGION WILL STILL BE UNDER A CYCLONIC FLOW
REGIME SO SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. IT WILL CONTINUE TO
BE COOL AND DAMP...WITH OVERCAST SKIES RESULTING IN NOT MUCH
POTENTIAL FOR WARMING.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL DECREASE FURTHER FRIDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH A
FEW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY
AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE WESTERLY. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS
TO THE WEEKEND FORECAST...AS THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW FAR SOUTH AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM SOUTHERN CANADA DIGS OVER THE
NORTHEAST CONUS. THE GFS IS THE MOST OPTIMISTIC IN TERMS OF KEEPING
THE BRUNT OF THE TROUGH NORTH OF THE REGION WITH MILD TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER...THE ECMWF AND THE CMC TO AN EXTENT...DEPICTS THE TROUGH
DIGGING FARTHER SOUTH AND ALLOWING FOR COLDER AIR TO WORK INTO THE
REGION WITH SOME MOUNTAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN A DEVELOPING CYCLONIC
FLOW REGIME.

SO BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THE WEEKEND HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR WARMER THAN
NORMAL TEMPS AND MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE...OR COOLER TEMPS AND
MORE CLOUDS. WE WILL HAVE TO SEE WHICH WAY THE MODELS TREND AS THE
WEEKEND NEARS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO THIS MORNING...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVES INTO THE AREA. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
REST OF THE DAY AND TONIGHT...AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION. WILL MENTION PREVAILING SHOWERS
DURING THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD...ALTHOUGH IT WILL NOT BE RAINING THE
ENTIRE TIME AS BATCHES OF SHOWERS WILL PERIODICALLY MOVE THROUGH.

FLYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN VFR RANGE INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH CIGS ONLY GRADUALLY DECREASING. BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR
CIGS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE AT HIGHER ELEVATION SITE KPSF. BY THIS
EVENING THERE WILL BE A SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE FOR MVFR CONDITIONS
AT THE KALB/KPOU/KGFL TERMINALS WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS CONTINUING.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING NORTH-NORTHEAST AROUND 5
KT BY THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PDS RA.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT. IT WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
WEDNESDAY...AND THEN NORTHEAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY.
A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND INTERMITTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...EVEN
THOUGH WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF SOUTH AND EAST THE REGION. INTERMITTENT RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED FROM TODAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST
RAINFALL EXPECTED FOR LATE WED INTO EARLY THU.

WITH THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR...ESP LATE WED INTO EARLY THU. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO
TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA
DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL
WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD OF A FEW DAYS...SO NO WIDESPREAD
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS
THAT THE GREATEST AMTS WOULD BE FAVORED ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...ESP SOUTHERN VT...AND POSSIBLY THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS...WITH LESS AMTS OCCURRING WITHIN THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY DUE TO DOWNSLOPING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM












000
FXUS61 KALY 211016
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
617 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT. IT WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
WEDNESDAY...AND THEN NORTHEAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY.
A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND INTERMITTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM TODAY/...
EXCEPT FOR SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY TEMP GRIDS IN ORDER TO
REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS...NO CHANGES MADE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL BE IN THE PROCESS DEVELOPING INTO A
CLOSED UPPER LOW TODAY AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
FOR TODAY THE FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. RADAR PICS AS OF 430 AM SHOW ENOUGH PCPN
COVERAGE TO WARRANT INCREASING POPS TO LIKELY IN ALL AREAS
TODAY...AND TO CATEGORICAL LEVELS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
REGION. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH
A SURFACE LOW ALSO DEVELOPING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. AS THIS
EVOLUTION TAKES PLACE...THERE WILL BE A DROP OFF IN PCPN ACTIVITY
TONIGHT AND HAVE FORECAST MAINLY CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FURTHER OUT TO SEA...THE FORECAST
AREA WILL GET INTO THE WARM CONVEYOR BAND OF PCPN AS ATLANTIC
MOISTURE SURGES WESTWARD ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW. AS A
RESULT...PCPN WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AGAIN DURING WEDNESDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HAVE RAISED POPS TO CATEGORICAL BY
LATER WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AND CONTINUE TO FORECAST
CATEGORICAL POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE ON
THURSDAY...HAVE LOWERED POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA...BUT CATEGORICAL POPS CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHEAST
HALF.

LOWS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS WILL BE IN THE 40S. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT ON THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A VERTICALLY STACKED
LOW STILL CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF CAPE COD...WITH A SPRAWLING
CYCLONIC NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING TO BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE
REGION. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE NORTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WHERE
LIKELY POPS ARE MENTIONED. MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY START TO PULL EASTWARD AND OUT TO SEA
ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...OUR REGION WILL STILL BE UNDER A CYCLONIC FLOW
REGIME SO SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. IT WILL CONTINUE TO
BE COOL AND DAMP...WITH OVERCAST SKIES RESULTING IN NOT MUCH
POTENTIAL FOR WARMING.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL DECREASE FURTHER FRIDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH A
FEW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY
AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE WESTERLY. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS
TO THE WEEKEND FORECAST...AS THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW FAR SOUTH AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM SOUTHERN CANADA DIGS OVER THE
NORTHEAST CONUS. THE GFS IS THE MOST OPTIMISTIC IN TERMS OF KEEPING
THE BRUNT OF THE TROUGH NORTH OF THE REGION WITH MILD TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER...THE ECMWF AND THE CMC TO AN EXTENT...DEPICTS THE TROUGH
DIGGING FARTHER SOUTH AND ALLOWING FOR COLDER AIR TO WORK INTO THE
REGION WITH SOME MOUNTAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN A DEVELOPING CYCLONIC
FLOW REGIME.

SO BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THE WEEKEND HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR WARMER THAN
NORMAL TEMPS AND MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE...OR COOLER TEMPS AND
MORE CLOUDS. WE WILL HAVE TO SEE WHICH WAY THE MODELS TREND AS THE
WEEKEND NEARS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO THIS MORNING...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVES INTO THE AREA. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
REST OF THE DAY AND TONIGHT...AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION. WILL MENTION PREVAILING SHOWERS
DURING THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD...ALTHOUGH IT WILL NOT BE RAINING THE
ENTIRE TIME AS BATCHES OF SHOWERS WILL PERIODICALLY MOVE THROUGH.

FLYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN VFR RANGE INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH CIGS ONLY GRADUALLY DECREASING. BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR
CIGS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE AT HIGHER ELEVATION SITE KPSF. BY THIS
EVENING THERE WILL BE A SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE FOR MVFR CONDITIONS
AT THE KALB/KPOU/KGFL TERMINALS WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS CONTINUING.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING NORTH-NORTHEAST AROUND 5
KT BY THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PDS RA.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT. IT WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
WEDNESDAY...AND THEN NORTHEAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY.
A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND INTERMITTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...EVEN
THOUGH WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF SOUTH AND EAST THE REGION. INTERMITTENT RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED FROM TODAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST
RAINFALL EXPECTED FOR LATE WED INTO EARLY THU.

WITH THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR...ESP LATE WED INTO EARLY THU. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO
TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA
DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL
WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD OF A FEW DAYS...SO NO WIDESPREAD
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS
THAT THE GREATEST AMTS WOULD BE FAVORED ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...ESP SOUTHERN VT...AND POSSIBLY THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS...WITH LESS AMTS OCCURRING WITHIN THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY DUE TO DOWNSLOPING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM












000
FXUS61 KALY 211016
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
617 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT. IT WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
WEDNESDAY...AND THEN NORTHEAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY.
A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND INTERMITTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM TODAY/...
EXCEPT FOR SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY TEMP GRIDS IN ORDER TO
REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS...NO CHANGES MADE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL BE IN THE PROCESS DEVELOPING INTO A
CLOSED UPPER LOW TODAY AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
FOR TODAY THE FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. RADAR PICS AS OF 430 AM SHOW ENOUGH PCPN
COVERAGE TO WARRANT INCREASING POPS TO LIKELY IN ALL AREAS
TODAY...AND TO CATEGORICAL LEVELS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
REGION. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH
A SURFACE LOW ALSO DEVELOPING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. AS THIS
EVOLUTION TAKES PLACE...THERE WILL BE A DROP OFF IN PCPN ACTIVITY
TONIGHT AND HAVE FORECAST MAINLY CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FURTHER OUT TO SEA...THE FORECAST
AREA WILL GET INTO THE WARM CONVEYOR BAND OF PCPN AS ATLANTIC
MOISTURE SURGES WESTWARD ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW. AS A
RESULT...PCPN WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AGAIN DURING WEDNESDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HAVE RAISED POPS TO CATEGORICAL BY
LATER WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AND CONTINUE TO FORECAST
CATEGORICAL POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE ON
THURSDAY...HAVE LOWERED POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA...BUT CATEGORICAL POPS CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHEAST
HALF.

LOWS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS WILL BE IN THE 40S. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT ON THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A VERTICALLY STACKED
LOW STILL CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF CAPE COD...WITH A SPRAWLING
CYCLONIC NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING TO BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE
REGION. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE NORTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WHERE
LIKELY POPS ARE MENTIONED. MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY START TO PULL EASTWARD AND OUT TO SEA
ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...OUR REGION WILL STILL BE UNDER A CYCLONIC FLOW
REGIME SO SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. IT WILL CONTINUE TO
BE COOL AND DAMP...WITH OVERCAST SKIES RESULTING IN NOT MUCH
POTENTIAL FOR WARMING.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL DECREASE FURTHER FRIDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH A
FEW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY
AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE WESTERLY. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS
TO THE WEEKEND FORECAST...AS THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW FAR SOUTH AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM SOUTHERN CANADA DIGS OVER THE
NORTHEAST CONUS. THE GFS IS THE MOST OPTIMISTIC IN TERMS OF KEEPING
THE BRUNT OF THE TROUGH NORTH OF THE REGION WITH MILD TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER...THE ECMWF AND THE CMC TO AN EXTENT...DEPICTS THE TROUGH
DIGGING FARTHER SOUTH AND ALLOWING FOR COLDER AIR TO WORK INTO THE
REGION WITH SOME MOUNTAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN A DEVELOPING CYCLONIC
FLOW REGIME.

SO BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THE WEEKEND HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR WARMER THAN
NORMAL TEMPS AND MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE...OR COOLER TEMPS AND
MORE CLOUDS. WE WILL HAVE TO SEE WHICH WAY THE MODELS TREND AS THE
WEEKEND NEARS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO THIS MORNING...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVES INTO THE AREA. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
REST OF THE DAY AND TONIGHT...AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION. WILL MENTION PREVAILING SHOWERS
DURING THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD...ALTHOUGH IT WILL NOT BE RAINING THE
ENTIRE TIME AS BATCHES OF SHOWERS WILL PERIODICALLY MOVE THROUGH.

FLYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN VFR RANGE INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH CIGS ONLY GRADUALLY DECREASING. BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR
CIGS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE AT HIGHER ELEVATION SITE KPSF. BY THIS
EVENING THERE WILL BE A SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE FOR MVFR CONDITIONS
AT THE KALB/KPOU/KGFL TERMINALS WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS CONTINUING.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING NORTH-NORTHEAST AROUND 5
KT BY THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PDS RA.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT. IT WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
WEDNESDAY...AND THEN NORTHEAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY.
A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND INTERMITTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...EVEN
THOUGH WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF SOUTH AND EAST THE REGION. INTERMITTENT RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED FROM TODAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST
RAINFALL EXPECTED FOR LATE WED INTO EARLY THU.

WITH THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR...ESP LATE WED INTO EARLY THU. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO
TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA
DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL
WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD OF A FEW DAYS...SO NO WIDESPREAD
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS
THAT THE GREATEST AMTS WOULD BE FAVORED ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...ESP SOUTHERN VT...AND POSSIBLY THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS...WITH LESS AMTS OCCURRING WITHIN THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY DUE TO DOWNSLOPING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM












000
FXUS61 KALY 211016
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
617 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT. IT WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
WEDNESDAY...AND THEN NORTHEAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY.
A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND INTERMITTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM TODAY/...
EXCEPT FOR SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY TEMP GRIDS IN ORDER TO
REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS...NO CHANGES MADE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL BE IN THE PROCESS DEVELOPING INTO A
CLOSED UPPER LOW TODAY AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
FOR TODAY THE FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. RADAR PICS AS OF 430 AM SHOW ENOUGH PCPN
COVERAGE TO WARRANT INCREASING POPS TO LIKELY IN ALL AREAS
TODAY...AND TO CATEGORICAL LEVELS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
REGION. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH
A SURFACE LOW ALSO DEVELOPING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. AS THIS
EVOLUTION TAKES PLACE...THERE WILL BE A DROP OFF IN PCPN ACTIVITY
TONIGHT AND HAVE FORECAST MAINLY CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FURTHER OUT TO SEA...THE FORECAST
AREA WILL GET INTO THE WARM CONVEYOR BAND OF PCPN AS ATLANTIC
MOISTURE SURGES WESTWARD ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW. AS A
RESULT...PCPN WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AGAIN DURING WEDNESDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HAVE RAISED POPS TO CATEGORICAL BY
LATER WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AND CONTINUE TO FORECAST
CATEGORICAL POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE ON
THURSDAY...HAVE LOWERED POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA...BUT CATEGORICAL POPS CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHEAST
HALF.

LOWS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS WILL BE IN THE 40S. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT ON THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A VERTICALLY STACKED
LOW STILL CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF CAPE COD...WITH A SPRAWLING
CYCLONIC NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING TO BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE
REGION. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE NORTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WHERE
LIKELY POPS ARE MENTIONED. MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY START TO PULL EASTWARD AND OUT TO SEA
ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...OUR REGION WILL STILL BE UNDER A CYCLONIC FLOW
REGIME SO SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. IT WILL CONTINUE TO
BE COOL AND DAMP...WITH OVERCAST SKIES RESULTING IN NOT MUCH
POTENTIAL FOR WARMING.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL DECREASE FURTHER FRIDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH A
FEW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY
AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE WESTERLY. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS
TO THE WEEKEND FORECAST...AS THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW FAR SOUTH AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM SOUTHERN CANADA DIGS OVER THE
NORTHEAST CONUS. THE GFS IS THE MOST OPTIMISTIC IN TERMS OF KEEPING
THE BRUNT OF THE TROUGH NORTH OF THE REGION WITH MILD TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER...THE ECMWF AND THE CMC TO AN EXTENT...DEPICTS THE TROUGH
DIGGING FARTHER SOUTH AND ALLOWING FOR COLDER AIR TO WORK INTO THE
REGION WITH SOME MOUNTAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN A DEVELOPING CYCLONIC
FLOW REGIME.

SO BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THE WEEKEND HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR WARMER THAN
NORMAL TEMPS AND MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE...OR COOLER TEMPS AND
MORE CLOUDS. WE WILL HAVE TO SEE WHICH WAY THE MODELS TREND AS THE
WEEKEND NEARS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO THIS MORNING...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVES INTO THE AREA. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
REST OF THE DAY AND TONIGHT...AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION. WILL MENTION PREVAILING SHOWERS
DURING THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD...ALTHOUGH IT WILL NOT BE RAINING THE
ENTIRE TIME AS BATCHES OF SHOWERS WILL PERIODICALLY MOVE THROUGH.

FLYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN VFR RANGE INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH CIGS ONLY GRADUALLY DECREASING. BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR
CIGS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE AT HIGHER ELEVATION SITE KPSF. BY THIS
EVENING THERE WILL BE A SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE FOR MVFR CONDITIONS
AT THE KALB/KPOU/KGFL TERMINALS WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS CONTINUING.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING NORTH-NORTHEAST AROUND 5
KT BY THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PDS RA.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT. IT WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
WEDNESDAY...AND THEN NORTHEAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY.
A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND INTERMITTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...EVEN
THOUGH WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF SOUTH AND EAST THE REGION. INTERMITTENT RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED FROM TODAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST
RAINFALL EXPECTED FOR LATE WED INTO EARLY THU.

WITH THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR...ESP LATE WED INTO EARLY THU. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO
TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA
DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL
WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD OF A FEW DAYS...SO NO WIDESPREAD
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS
THAT THE GREATEST AMTS WOULD BE FAVORED ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...ESP SOUTHERN VT...AND POSSIBLY THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS...WITH LESS AMTS OCCURRING WITHIN THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY DUE TO DOWNSLOPING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM












000
FXUS61 KALY 211016
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
617 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT. IT WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
WEDNESDAY...AND THEN NORTHEAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY.
A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND INTERMITTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM TODAY/...
EXCEPT FOR SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY TEMP GRIDS IN ORDER TO
REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS...NO CHANGES MADE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL BE IN THE PROCESS DEVELOPING INTO A
CLOSED UPPER LOW TODAY AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
FOR TODAY THE FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. RADAR PICS AS OF 430 AM SHOW ENOUGH PCPN
COVERAGE TO WARRANT INCREASING POPS TO LIKELY IN ALL AREAS
TODAY...AND TO CATEGORICAL LEVELS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
REGION. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH
A SURFACE LOW ALSO DEVELOPING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. AS THIS
EVOLUTION TAKES PLACE...THERE WILL BE A DROP OFF IN PCPN ACTIVITY
TONIGHT AND HAVE FORECAST MAINLY CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FURTHER OUT TO SEA...THE FORECAST
AREA WILL GET INTO THE WARM CONVEYOR BAND OF PCPN AS ATLANTIC
MOISTURE SURGES WESTWARD ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW. AS A
RESULT...PCPN WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AGAIN DURING WEDNESDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HAVE RAISED POPS TO CATEGORICAL BY
LATER WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AND CONTINUE TO FORECAST
CATEGORICAL POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE ON
THURSDAY...HAVE LOWERED POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA...BUT CATEGORICAL POPS CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHEAST
HALF.

LOWS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS WILL BE IN THE 40S. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT ON THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A VERTICALLY STACKED
LOW STILL CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF CAPE COD...WITH A SPRAWLING
CYCLONIC NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING TO BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE
REGION. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE NORTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WHERE
LIKELY POPS ARE MENTIONED. MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY START TO PULL EASTWARD AND OUT TO SEA
ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...OUR REGION WILL STILL BE UNDER A CYCLONIC FLOW
REGIME SO SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. IT WILL CONTINUE TO
BE COOL AND DAMP...WITH OVERCAST SKIES RESULTING IN NOT MUCH
POTENTIAL FOR WARMING.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL DECREASE FURTHER FRIDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH A
FEW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY
AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE WESTERLY. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS
TO THE WEEKEND FORECAST...AS THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW FAR SOUTH AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM SOUTHERN CANADA DIGS OVER THE
NORTHEAST CONUS. THE GFS IS THE MOST OPTIMISTIC IN TERMS OF KEEPING
THE BRUNT OF THE TROUGH NORTH OF THE REGION WITH MILD TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER...THE ECMWF AND THE CMC TO AN EXTENT...DEPICTS THE TROUGH
DIGGING FARTHER SOUTH AND ALLOWING FOR COLDER AIR TO WORK INTO THE
REGION WITH SOME MOUNTAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN A DEVELOPING CYCLONIC
FLOW REGIME.

SO BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THE WEEKEND HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR WARMER THAN
NORMAL TEMPS AND MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE...OR COOLER TEMPS AND
MORE CLOUDS. WE WILL HAVE TO SEE WHICH WAY THE MODELS TREND AS THE
WEEKEND NEARS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO THIS MORNING...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVES INTO THE AREA. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
REST OF THE DAY AND TONIGHT...AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION. WILL MENTION PREVAILING SHOWERS
DURING THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD...ALTHOUGH IT WILL NOT BE RAINING THE
ENTIRE TIME AS BATCHES OF SHOWERS WILL PERIODICALLY MOVE THROUGH.

FLYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN VFR RANGE INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH CIGS ONLY GRADUALLY DECREASING. BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR
CIGS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE AT HIGHER ELEVATION SITE KPSF. BY THIS
EVENING THERE WILL BE A SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE FOR MVFR CONDITIONS
AT THE KALB/KPOU/KGFL TERMINALS WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS CONTINUING.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING NORTH-NORTHEAST AROUND 5
KT BY THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PDS RA.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT. IT WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
WEDNESDAY...AND THEN NORTHEAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY.
A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND INTERMITTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...EVEN
THOUGH WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF SOUTH AND EAST THE REGION. INTERMITTENT RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED FROM TODAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST
RAINFALL EXPECTED FOR LATE WED INTO EARLY THU.

WITH THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR...ESP LATE WED INTO EARLY THU. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO
TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA
DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL
WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD OF A FEW DAYS...SO NO WIDESPREAD
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS
THAT THE GREATEST AMTS WOULD BE FAVORED ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...ESP SOUTHERN VT...AND POSSIBLY THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS...WITH LESS AMTS OCCURRING WITHIN THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY DUE TO DOWNSLOPING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM












000
FXUS61 KALY 211016
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
617 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT. IT WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
WEDNESDAY...AND THEN NORTHEAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY.
A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND INTERMITTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM TODAY/...
EXCEPT FOR SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY TEMP GRIDS IN ORDER TO
REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS...NO CHANGES MADE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL BE IN THE PROCESS DEVELOPING INTO A
CLOSED UPPER LOW TODAY AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
FOR TODAY THE FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. RADAR PICS AS OF 430 AM SHOW ENOUGH PCPN
COVERAGE TO WARRANT INCREASING POPS TO LIKELY IN ALL AREAS
TODAY...AND TO CATEGORICAL LEVELS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
REGION. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH
A SURFACE LOW ALSO DEVELOPING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. AS THIS
EVOLUTION TAKES PLACE...THERE WILL BE A DROP OFF IN PCPN ACTIVITY
TONIGHT AND HAVE FORECAST MAINLY CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FURTHER OUT TO SEA...THE FORECAST
AREA WILL GET INTO THE WARM CONVEYOR BAND OF PCPN AS ATLANTIC
MOISTURE SURGES WESTWARD ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW. AS A
RESULT...PCPN WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AGAIN DURING WEDNESDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HAVE RAISED POPS TO CATEGORICAL BY
LATER WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AND CONTINUE TO FORECAST
CATEGORICAL POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE ON
THURSDAY...HAVE LOWERED POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA...BUT CATEGORICAL POPS CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHEAST
HALF.

LOWS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS WILL BE IN THE 40S. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT ON THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A VERTICALLY STACKED
LOW STILL CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF CAPE COD...WITH A SPRAWLING
CYCLONIC NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING TO BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE
REGION. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE NORTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WHERE
LIKELY POPS ARE MENTIONED. MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY START TO PULL EASTWARD AND OUT TO SEA
ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...OUR REGION WILL STILL BE UNDER A CYCLONIC FLOW
REGIME SO SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. IT WILL CONTINUE TO
BE COOL AND DAMP...WITH OVERCAST SKIES RESULTING IN NOT MUCH
POTENTIAL FOR WARMING.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL DECREASE FURTHER FRIDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH A
FEW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY
AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE WESTERLY. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS
TO THE WEEKEND FORECAST...AS THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW FAR SOUTH AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM SOUTHERN CANADA DIGS OVER THE
NORTHEAST CONUS. THE GFS IS THE MOST OPTIMISTIC IN TERMS OF KEEPING
THE BRUNT OF THE TROUGH NORTH OF THE REGION WITH MILD TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER...THE ECMWF AND THE CMC TO AN EXTENT...DEPICTS THE TROUGH
DIGGING FARTHER SOUTH AND ALLOWING FOR COLDER AIR TO WORK INTO THE
REGION WITH SOME MOUNTAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN A DEVELOPING CYCLONIC
FLOW REGIME.

SO BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THE WEEKEND HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR WARMER THAN
NORMAL TEMPS AND MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE...OR COOLER TEMPS AND
MORE CLOUDS. WE WILL HAVE TO SEE WHICH WAY THE MODELS TREND AS THE
WEEKEND NEARS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO THIS MORNING...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVES INTO THE AREA. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
REST OF THE DAY AND TONIGHT...AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION. WILL MENTION PREVAILING SHOWERS
DURING THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD...ALTHOUGH IT WILL NOT BE RAINING THE
ENTIRE TIME AS BATCHES OF SHOWERS WILL PERIODICALLY MOVE THROUGH.

FLYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN VFR RANGE INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH CIGS ONLY GRADUALLY DECREASING. BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR
CIGS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE AT HIGHER ELEVATION SITE KPSF. BY THIS
EVENING THERE WILL BE A SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE FOR MVFR CONDITIONS
AT THE KALB/KPOU/KGFL TERMINALS WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS CONTINUING.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING NORTH-NORTHEAST AROUND 5
KT BY THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PDS RA.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT. IT WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
WEDNESDAY...AND THEN NORTHEAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY.
A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND INTERMITTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...EVEN
THOUGH WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF SOUTH AND EAST THE REGION. INTERMITTENT RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED FROM TODAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST
RAINFALL EXPECTED FOR LATE WED INTO EARLY THU.

WITH THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR...ESP LATE WED INTO EARLY THU. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO
TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA
DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL
WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD OF A FEW DAYS...SO NO WIDESPREAD
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS
THAT THE GREATEST AMTS WOULD BE FAVORED ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...ESP SOUTHERN VT...AND POSSIBLY THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS...WITH LESS AMTS OCCURRING WITHIN THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY DUE TO DOWNSLOPING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM












000
FXUS61 KALY 211016
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
617 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT. IT WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
WEDNESDAY...AND THEN NORTHEAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY.
A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND INTERMITTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM TODAY/...
EXCEPT FOR SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY TEMP GRIDS IN ORDER TO
REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS...NO CHANGES MADE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL BE IN THE PROCESS DEVELOPING INTO A
CLOSED UPPER LOW TODAY AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
FOR TODAY THE FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. RADAR PICS AS OF 430 AM SHOW ENOUGH PCPN
COVERAGE TO WARRANT INCREASING POPS TO LIKELY IN ALL AREAS
TODAY...AND TO CATEGORICAL LEVELS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
REGION. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH
A SURFACE LOW ALSO DEVELOPING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. AS THIS
EVOLUTION TAKES PLACE...THERE WILL BE A DROP OFF IN PCPN ACTIVITY
TONIGHT AND HAVE FORECAST MAINLY CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FURTHER OUT TO SEA...THE FORECAST
AREA WILL GET INTO THE WARM CONVEYOR BAND OF PCPN AS ATLANTIC
MOISTURE SURGES WESTWARD ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW. AS A
RESULT...PCPN WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AGAIN DURING WEDNESDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HAVE RAISED POPS TO CATEGORICAL BY
LATER WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AND CONTINUE TO FORECAST
CATEGORICAL POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE ON
THURSDAY...HAVE LOWERED POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA...BUT CATEGORICAL POPS CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHEAST
HALF.

LOWS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS WILL BE IN THE 40S. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT ON THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A VERTICALLY STACKED
LOW STILL CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF CAPE COD...WITH A SPRAWLING
CYCLONIC NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING TO BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE
REGION. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE NORTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WHERE
LIKELY POPS ARE MENTIONED. MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY START TO PULL EASTWARD AND OUT TO SEA
ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...OUR REGION WILL STILL BE UNDER A CYCLONIC FLOW
REGIME SO SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. IT WILL CONTINUE TO
BE COOL AND DAMP...WITH OVERCAST SKIES RESULTING IN NOT MUCH
POTENTIAL FOR WARMING.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL DECREASE FURTHER FRIDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH A
FEW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY
AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE WESTERLY. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS
TO THE WEEKEND FORECAST...AS THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW FAR SOUTH AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM SOUTHERN CANADA DIGS OVER THE
NORTHEAST CONUS. THE GFS IS THE MOST OPTIMISTIC IN TERMS OF KEEPING
THE BRUNT OF THE TROUGH NORTH OF THE REGION WITH MILD TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER...THE ECMWF AND THE CMC TO AN EXTENT...DEPICTS THE TROUGH
DIGGING FARTHER SOUTH AND ALLOWING FOR COLDER AIR TO WORK INTO THE
REGION WITH SOME MOUNTAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN A DEVELOPING CYCLONIC
FLOW REGIME.

SO BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THE WEEKEND HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR WARMER THAN
NORMAL TEMPS AND MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE...OR COOLER TEMPS AND
MORE CLOUDS. WE WILL HAVE TO SEE WHICH WAY THE MODELS TREND AS THE
WEEKEND NEARS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO THIS MORNING...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVES INTO THE AREA. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
REST OF THE DAY AND TONIGHT...AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION. WILL MENTION PREVAILING SHOWERS
DURING THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD...ALTHOUGH IT WILL NOT BE RAINING THE
ENTIRE TIME AS BATCHES OF SHOWERS WILL PERIODICALLY MOVE THROUGH.

FLYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN VFR RANGE INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH CIGS ONLY GRADUALLY DECREASING. BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR
CIGS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE AT HIGHER ELEVATION SITE KPSF. BY THIS
EVENING THERE WILL BE A SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE FOR MVFR CONDITIONS
AT THE KALB/KPOU/KGFL TERMINALS WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS CONTINUING.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING NORTH-NORTHEAST AROUND 5
KT BY THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PDS RA.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT. IT WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
WEDNESDAY...AND THEN NORTHEAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY.
A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND INTERMITTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...EVEN
THOUGH WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF SOUTH AND EAST THE REGION. INTERMITTENT RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED FROM TODAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST
RAINFALL EXPECTED FOR LATE WED INTO EARLY THU.

WITH THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR...ESP LATE WED INTO EARLY THU. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO
TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA
DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL
WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD OF A FEW DAYS...SO NO WIDESPREAD
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS
THAT THE GREATEST AMTS WOULD BE FAVORED ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...ESP SOUTHERN VT...AND POSSIBLY THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS...WITH LESS AMTS OCCURRING WITHIN THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY DUE TO DOWNSLOPING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM












000
FXUS61 KOKX 210900
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
500 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE DELMARVA AREA TODAY...AND THEN WILL
MEANDER SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND THROUGH THE MID-WEEK PERIOD. THAT LOW
TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES LATE
THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
SATURDAY...THEN CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH WITH SEVERAL STRONG SHORTWAVES DEEPENS OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES AREA. MEANWHILE...SFC LOW PRES DEVELOPS OVER
THE DELMARVA AREA AND SLOWLY TRACKS TOWARDS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WATERS JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND LATE IN THE DAY.

CAN EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY...BUT NOT
MUCH PRECIP IS EXPECTED. A FEW ISOLATED TSTMS POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON DUE TO STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...BUT WOULD
EXPECT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR 2. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE OVER WESTERN
ZONES AND AREAS CLOSER TO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE MILD...TOPPING OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
TEMPS COULD BE A BIT WARMER IF PARTS OF THE CWA BECOME DRY SLOTTED
AND SKIES BREAK UP AND THE SUB POPS OUT FOR A BRIEF TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TONIGHT...BUT RAIN BECOMES LIKELY OVER
WESTERN ZONES AS THE LOW DEEPENS. RAIN THEN CONTINUES THROUGH THE
DAY WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE DELMARVA...AND
BECOMES A NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED LOW WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
SFC LOW. WILL BUMP UP POPS TO LIKELY/CATEGORICAL ON WEDNESDAY AS
THAT LOW MEANDERS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND.

MUCH COOLER ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
STACKED LOW PRESSURE JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WILL SLOWLY DRIFT
NORTH/NORTHEASTWARD LATE THIS WEEK. SHORTWAVE ENERGY OUT OF
CENTRAL CANADA DIVES SOUTHEAST AND MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND. SOME DIFFERENCES ARE NOTED WITH THE STRENGTH
OF THIS SHORTWAVE. UPSTREAM PACIFIC NW SHORTWAVE WILL KICK OUT
EASTERN TROUGH...RESULTING IN RIDGING BETWEEN THE TWO TROUGHS
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT THE SURFACE...SOME MODEL PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES NOTED WITH
REGARD TO THE SFC LOW PRESSURE. GENERALLY EXPECT SFC LOW JUST
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WED NIGHT TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD
BETWEEN EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK THURSDAY.
THE LOW WILL TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST LATE IN THE WEEK TOWARD THE
CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES THIS WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO
MOVE THROUGH LATE SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE RAIN WED
NIGHT...WITH LOW CATEGORICAL POPS OR LIKELY POPS INTO THURSDAY AS
THE STACKED LOW IS SLOW TO MOVE OUT. BANDED PRECIP
LIKELY...PROVIDING ADDITIONAL MEASURABLE QPF MOST LOCATIONS.

SOME SFC BASED INSTABILITY IS NOTED CLOSER TO THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
LOW...OR EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY PER
NAM/GFS. WEAK MID LEVEL INSTABILITY IS PROGGED BY THESE MODELS AS
WELL. CANNOT RULE THUNDER...BUT THIS SHOULD BE TOO ISOLATED TO
MENTION.

DRY WEATHER EVENTUALLY RETURNS FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS THE STORM
SYSTEM DEPARTS.

DAYTIME TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL THURSDAY DUE TO
CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF RAIN. THEREAFTER...TEMPS LIKELY REBOUND
CLOSER TO...IF NOT SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. SUNDAY COULD BE THE
COOLEST DAY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WHILE TEMPS HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO WARM ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK IN SW FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL TRACK TO THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN SLOWLY INTO THE ATLANTIC
TONIGHT.

TRICKY FORECAST NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A WEAK PRES GRADIENT FOR MOST
OF THE PERIOD LEADING TO LIGHT AND VRB WINDS. TRIED TO PINPOINT A
DIRECTION...BUT DIRECTIONS COULD BE ALL OVER THE PLACE UNTIL THE
LOW TRACKS TO THE S OF THE AREA AND A NE FLOW BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KT
DEVELOPS THIS EVE.

CONDS SHOULD BE VFR FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD...BUT COULD SEE
BRIEF ISOLD MVFR IN ANY RAIN THAT MOVES DIRECTLY OVER ANY OF THE
TERMINALS. SPEAKING OF RAIN...TOUGH TO PINPOINT WHEN AND WHERE BUT
DO NOT EXPECT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF PCPN AT ANY OF THE
TERMINALS...EXCEPT KSWF. MIGHT BE TOO EARLY IN STEADY -RA BEGINNING
AROUND 23Z TONIGHT...BUT FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS CAN BE MADE IN
SUBSEQUENT TAFS.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR RAIN LEADING TO WET
RUNWAYS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR RAIN LEADING TO WET
RUNWAYS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR RAIN LEADING TO WET
RUNWAYS.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR RAIN LEADING TO WET
RUNWAYS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR RAIN LEADING TO WET
RUNWAYS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR RAIN LEADING TO WET
RUNWAYS.


.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUE NIGHT...MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR CONDS DEVELOPING WITH SCT LIGHT
RAIN.
.WED THROUGH THU...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN RAIN. NLY FLOW 10 TO 15
KT G20-25KT.
.FRI...IMPROVING CONDS. NW WINDS 15-20 KT WITH 20-25 KT GUSTS.
.SAT..VFR. NW G20KT.

&&

.MARINE...
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW PUSHED SEAS UP TO 5-6 FT ON THE OCEAN
WATERS. WILL ISSUE SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS THIS MORNING. WINDS
LIGHTEN AND SHIFT TO THE SE LATE THIS MORNING...AND SEAS SHOULD
SUBSIDE TO 3-4 FT THEN.

OTHERWISE...MAINLY TRANQUIL CONDS ON THE WATERS AS LOW PRES
DEVELOPS SOUTH OF THE WATERS. GRADIENT TIGHTENS ON WEDNESDAY...AND
SCA CONDS LIKELY BY AFTERNOON. WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING SCA DUE TO
SCA THAT IS UP FOR THIS MORNING.

GUSTY NORTH WINDS WED NIGHT WILL TURN TOWARD THE N/NW THURSDAY AS
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND MAKES SLOW
PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD. GUSTY NW WINDS PERSIST FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THE WINDS MAY BRIEFLY BACK TO THE WEST LATE SAT AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT.

ROUGH SEA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY IMPROVE LATE IN THE
WEEK AND INTO SATURDAY. WESTERLY FETCH THOUGH LIKELY RESULTS IN
HIGHER SEAS FURTHER EAST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM...WILL RESULT IN A
TENTH OF AN INCH OF QPF OR SO THROUGH TONIGHT. RAIN INCREASES LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH QPF LIKELY.
LOCALIZED NUISANCE URBAN OR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

PERIODS OF RAIN...BRIEFLY HEAVY IS SPOTS...COULD RESULT IN
LOCALIZED NUISANCE URBAN OR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING WED NIGHT AND
THURSDAY.

STORM TOTALS SHOULD AVERAGE BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES PER ANALYSIS OF
OPERATIONAL MODELS...AND SREF MEMBERS. THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN SHOULD
NOT RESULT IN ANY SERIOUS LIFE THREATENING OR PROPERTY FLOODING
ISSUES/CONCERNS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS
     MORNING FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPS/PW
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...24
MARINE...MPS/PW
HYDROLOGY...MPS/PW







000
FXUS61 KOKX 210900
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
500 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE DELMARVA AREA TODAY...AND THEN WILL
MEANDER SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND THROUGH THE MID-WEEK PERIOD. THAT LOW
TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES LATE
THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
SATURDAY...THEN CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH WITH SEVERAL STRONG SHORTWAVES DEEPENS OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES AREA. MEANWHILE...SFC LOW PRES DEVELOPS OVER
THE DELMARVA AREA AND SLOWLY TRACKS TOWARDS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WATERS JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND LATE IN THE DAY.

CAN EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY...BUT NOT
MUCH PRECIP IS EXPECTED. A FEW ISOLATED TSTMS POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON DUE TO STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...BUT WOULD
EXPECT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR 2. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE OVER WESTERN
ZONES AND AREAS CLOSER TO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE MILD...TOPPING OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
TEMPS COULD BE A BIT WARMER IF PARTS OF THE CWA BECOME DRY SLOTTED
AND SKIES BREAK UP AND THE SUB POPS OUT FOR A BRIEF TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TONIGHT...BUT RAIN BECOMES LIKELY OVER
WESTERN ZONES AS THE LOW DEEPENS. RAIN THEN CONTINUES THROUGH THE
DAY WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE DELMARVA...AND
BECOMES A NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED LOW WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
SFC LOW. WILL BUMP UP POPS TO LIKELY/CATEGORICAL ON WEDNESDAY AS
THAT LOW MEANDERS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND.

MUCH COOLER ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
STACKED LOW PRESSURE JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WILL SLOWLY DRIFT
NORTH/NORTHEASTWARD LATE THIS WEEK. SHORTWAVE ENERGY OUT OF
CENTRAL CANADA DIVES SOUTHEAST AND MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND. SOME DIFFERENCES ARE NOTED WITH THE STRENGTH
OF THIS SHORTWAVE. UPSTREAM PACIFIC NW SHORTWAVE WILL KICK OUT
EASTERN TROUGH...RESULTING IN RIDGING BETWEEN THE TWO TROUGHS
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT THE SURFACE...SOME MODEL PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES NOTED WITH
REGARD TO THE SFC LOW PRESSURE. GENERALLY EXPECT SFC LOW JUST
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WED NIGHT TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD
BETWEEN EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK THURSDAY.
THE LOW WILL TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST LATE IN THE WEEK TOWARD THE
CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES THIS WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO
MOVE THROUGH LATE SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE RAIN WED
NIGHT...WITH LOW CATEGORICAL POPS OR LIKELY POPS INTO THURSDAY AS
THE STACKED LOW IS SLOW TO MOVE OUT. BANDED PRECIP
LIKELY...PROVIDING ADDITIONAL MEASURABLE QPF MOST LOCATIONS.

SOME SFC BASED INSTABILITY IS NOTED CLOSER TO THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
LOW...OR EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY PER
NAM/GFS. WEAK MID LEVEL INSTABILITY IS PROGGED BY THESE MODELS AS
WELL. CANNOT RULE THUNDER...BUT THIS SHOULD BE TOO ISOLATED TO
MENTION.

DRY WEATHER EVENTUALLY RETURNS FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS THE STORM
SYSTEM DEPARTS.

DAYTIME TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL THURSDAY DUE TO
CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF RAIN. THEREAFTER...TEMPS LIKELY REBOUND
CLOSER TO...IF NOT SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. SUNDAY COULD BE THE
COOLEST DAY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WHILE TEMPS HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO WARM ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK IN SW FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL TRACK TO THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN SLOWLY INTO THE ATLANTIC
TONIGHT.

TRICKY FORECAST NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A WEAK PRES GRADIENT FOR MOST
OF THE PERIOD LEADING TO LIGHT AND VRB WINDS. TRIED TO PINPOINT A
DIRECTION...BUT DIRECTIONS COULD BE ALL OVER THE PLACE UNTIL THE
LOW TRACKS TO THE S OF THE AREA AND A NE FLOW BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KT
DEVELOPS THIS EVE.

CONDS SHOULD BE VFR FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD...BUT COULD SEE
BRIEF ISOLD MVFR IN ANY RAIN THAT MOVES DIRECTLY OVER ANY OF THE
TERMINALS. SPEAKING OF RAIN...TOUGH TO PINPOINT WHEN AND WHERE BUT
DO NOT EXPECT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF PCPN AT ANY OF THE
TERMINALS...EXCEPT KSWF. MIGHT BE TOO EARLY IN STEADY -RA BEGINNING
AROUND 23Z TONIGHT...BUT FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS CAN BE MADE IN
SUBSEQUENT TAFS.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR RAIN LEADING TO WET
RUNWAYS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR RAIN LEADING TO WET
RUNWAYS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR RAIN LEADING TO WET
RUNWAYS.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR RAIN LEADING TO WET
RUNWAYS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR RAIN LEADING TO WET
RUNWAYS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR RAIN LEADING TO WET
RUNWAYS.


.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUE NIGHT...MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR CONDS DEVELOPING WITH SCT LIGHT
RAIN.
.WED THROUGH THU...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN RAIN. NLY FLOW 10 TO 15
KT G20-25KT.
.FRI...IMPROVING CONDS. NW WINDS 15-20 KT WITH 20-25 KT GUSTS.
.SAT..VFR. NW G20KT.

&&

.MARINE...
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW PUSHED SEAS UP TO 5-6 FT ON THE OCEAN
WATERS. WILL ISSUE SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS THIS MORNING. WINDS
LIGHTEN AND SHIFT TO THE SE LATE THIS MORNING...AND SEAS SHOULD
SUBSIDE TO 3-4 FT THEN.

OTHERWISE...MAINLY TRANQUIL CONDS ON THE WATERS AS LOW PRES
DEVELOPS SOUTH OF THE WATERS. GRADIENT TIGHTENS ON WEDNESDAY...AND
SCA CONDS LIKELY BY AFTERNOON. WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING SCA DUE TO
SCA THAT IS UP FOR THIS MORNING.

GUSTY NORTH WINDS WED NIGHT WILL TURN TOWARD THE N/NW THURSDAY AS
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND MAKES SLOW
PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD. GUSTY NW WINDS PERSIST FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THE WINDS MAY BRIEFLY BACK TO THE WEST LATE SAT AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT.

ROUGH SEA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY IMPROVE LATE IN THE
WEEK AND INTO SATURDAY. WESTERLY FETCH THOUGH LIKELY RESULTS IN
HIGHER SEAS FURTHER EAST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM...WILL RESULT IN A
TENTH OF AN INCH OF QPF OR SO THROUGH TONIGHT. RAIN INCREASES LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH QPF LIKELY.
LOCALIZED NUISANCE URBAN OR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

PERIODS OF RAIN...BRIEFLY HEAVY IS SPOTS...COULD RESULT IN
LOCALIZED NUISANCE URBAN OR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING WED NIGHT AND
THURSDAY.

STORM TOTALS SHOULD AVERAGE BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES PER ANALYSIS OF
OPERATIONAL MODELS...AND SREF MEMBERS. THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN SHOULD
NOT RESULT IN ANY SERIOUS LIFE THREATENING OR PROPERTY FLOODING
ISSUES/CONCERNS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS
     MORNING FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPS/PW
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...24
MARINE...MPS/PW
HYDROLOGY...MPS/PW






000
FXUS61 KALY 210851
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
451 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT. IT WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
WEDNESDAY...AND THEN NORTHEAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY.
A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND INTERMITTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM TODAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL BE IN THE PROCESS DEVELOPING INTO A
CLOSED UPPER LOW TODAY AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
FOR TODAY THE FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. RADAR PICS AS OF 430 AM SHOW ENOUGH PCPN
COVERAGE TO WARRANT INCREASING POPS TO LIKELY IN ALL AREAS
TODAY...AND TO CATEGORICAL LEVELS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
REGION. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH
A SURFACE LOW ALSO DEVELOPING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. AS THIS
EVOLUTION TAKES PLACE...THERE WILL BE A DROP OFF IN PCPN ACTIVITY
TONIGHT AND HAVE FORECAST MAINLY CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FURTHER OUT TO SEA...THE FORECAST
AREA WILL GET INTO THE WARM CONVEYOR BAND OF PCPN AS ATLANTIC
MOISTURE SURGES WESTWARD ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW. AS A
RESULT...PCPN WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AGAIN DURING WEDNESDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HAVE RAISED POPS TO CATEGORICAL BY
LATER WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AND CONTINUE TO FORECAST
CATEGORICAL POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE ON
THURSDAY...HAVE LOWERED POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA...BUT CATEGORICAL POPS CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHEAST
HALF.

LOWS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS WILL BE IN THE 40S. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT ON THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A VERTICALLY STACKED
LOW STILL CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF CAPE COD...WITH A SPRAWLING
CYCLONIC NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING TO BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE
REGION. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE NORTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WHERE
LIKELY POPS ARE MENTIONED. MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY START TO PULL EASTWARD AND OUT TO SEA
ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...OUR REGION WILL STILL BE UNDER A CYCLONIC FLOW
REGIME SO SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. IT WILL CONTINUE TO
BE COOL AND DAMP...WITH OVERCAST SKIES RESULTING IN NOT MUCH
POTENTIAL FOR WARMING.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL DECREASE FURTHER FRIDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH A
FEW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY
AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE WESTERLY. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS
TO THE WEEKEND FORECAST...AS THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW FAR SOUTH AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM SOUTHERN CANADA DIGS OVER THE
NORTHEAST CONUS. THE GFS IS THE MOST OPTIMISTIC IN TERMS OF KEEPING
THE BRUNT OF THE TROUGH NORTH OF THE REGION WITH MILD TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER...THE ECMWF AND THE CMC TO AN EXTENT...DEPICTS THE TROUGH
DIGGING FARTHER SOUTH AND ALLOWING FOR COLDER AIR TO WORK INTO THE
REGION WITH SOME MOUNTAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN A DEVELOPING CYCLONIC
FLOW REGIME.

SO BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THE WEEKEND HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR WARMER THAN
NORMAL TEMPS AND MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE...OR COOLER TEMPS AND
MORE CLOUDS. WE WILL HAVE TO SEE WHICH WAY THE MODELS TREND AS THE
WEEKEND NEARS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO THIS MORNING...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVES INTO THE AREA. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
REST OF THE DAY AND TONIGHT...AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION. WILL MENTION PREVAILING SHOWERS
DURING THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD...ALTHOUGH IT WILL NOT BE RAINING THE
ENTIRE TIME AS BATCHES OF SHOWERS WILL PERIODICALLY MOVE THROUGH.

FLYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN VFR RANGE INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH CIGS ONLY GRADUALLY DECREASING. BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR
CIGS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE AT HIGHER ELEVATION SITE KPSF. BY THIS
EVENING THERE WILL BE A SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE FOR MVFR CONDITIONS
AT THE KALB/KPOU/KGFL TERMINALS WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS CONTINUING.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING NORTH-NORTHEAST AROUND 5
KT BY THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PDS RA.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT. IT WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
WEDNESDAY...AND THEN NORTHEAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY.
A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND INTERMITTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...EVEN
THOUGH WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF SOUTH AND EAST THE REGION. INTERMITTENT RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED FROM TODAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST
RAINFALL EXPECTED FOR LATE WED INTO EARLY THU.

WITH THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR...ESP LATE WED INTO EARLY THU. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO
TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA
DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL
WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD OF A FEW DAYS...SO NO WIDESPREAD
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS
THAT THE GREATEST AMTS WOULD BE FAVORED ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...ESP SOUTHERN VT...AND POSSIBLY THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS...WITH LESS AMTS OCCURRING WITHIN THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY DUE TO DOWNSLOPING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM









000
FXUS61 KALY 210851
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
451 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT. IT WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
WEDNESDAY...AND THEN NORTHEAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY.
A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND INTERMITTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM TODAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL BE IN THE PROCESS DEVELOPING INTO A
CLOSED UPPER LOW TODAY AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
FOR TODAY THE FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. RADAR PICS AS OF 430 AM SHOW ENOUGH PCPN
COVERAGE TO WARRANT INCREASING POPS TO LIKELY IN ALL AREAS
TODAY...AND TO CATEGORICAL LEVELS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
REGION. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH
A SURFACE LOW ALSO DEVELOPING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. AS THIS
EVOLUTION TAKES PLACE...THERE WILL BE A DROP OFF IN PCPN ACTIVITY
TONIGHT AND HAVE FORECAST MAINLY CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FURTHER OUT TO SEA...THE FORECAST
AREA WILL GET INTO THE WARM CONVEYOR BAND OF PCPN AS ATLANTIC
MOISTURE SURGES WESTWARD ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW. AS A
RESULT...PCPN WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AGAIN DURING WEDNESDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HAVE RAISED POPS TO CATEGORICAL BY
LATER WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AND CONTINUE TO FORECAST
CATEGORICAL POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE ON
THURSDAY...HAVE LOWERED POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA...BUT CATEGORICAL POPS CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHEAST
HALF.

LOWS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS WILL BE IN THE 40S. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT ON THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A VERTICALLY STACKED
LOW STILL CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF CAPE COD...WITH A SPRAWLING
CYCLONIC NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING TO BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE
REGION. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE NORTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WHERE
LIKELY POPS ARE MENTIONED. MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY START TO PULL EASTWARD AND OUT TO SEA
ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...OUR REGION WILL STILL BE UNDER A CYCLONIC FLOW
REGIME SO SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. IT WILL CONTINUE TO
BE COOL AND DAMP...WITH OVERCAST SKIES RESULTING IN NOT MUCH
POTENTIAL FOR WARMING.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL DECREASE FURTHER FRIDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH A
FEW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY
AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE WESTERLY. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS
TO THE WEEKEND FORECAST...AS THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW FAR SOUTH AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM SOUTHERN CANADA DIGS OVER THE
NORTHEAST CONUS. THE GFS IS THE MOST OPTIMISTIC IN TERMS OF KEEPING
THE BRUNT OF THE TROUGH NORTH OF THE REGION WITH MILD TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER...THE ECMWF AND THE CMC TO AN EXTENT...DEPICTS THE TROUGH
DIGGING FARTHER SOUTH AND ALLOWING FOR COLDER AIR TO WORK INTO THE
REGION WITH SOME MOUNTAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN A DEVELOPING CYCLONIC
FLOW REGIME.

SO BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THE WEEKEND HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR WARMER THAN
NORMAL TEMPS AND MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE...OR COOLER TEMPS AND
MORE CLOUDS. WE WILL HAVE TO SEE WHICH WAY THE MODELS TREND AS THE
WEEKEND NEARS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO THIS MORNING...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVES INTO THE AREA. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
REST OF THE DAY AND TONIGHT...AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION. WILL MENTION PREVAILING SHOWERS
DURING THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD...ALTHOUGH IT WILL NOT BE RAINING THE
ENTIRE TIME AS BATCHES OF SHOWERS WILL PERIODICALLY MOVE THROUGH.

FLYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN VFR RANGE INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH CIGS ONLY GRADUALLY DECREASING. BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR
CIGS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE AT HIGHER ELEVATION SITE KPSF. BY THIS
EVENING THERE WILL BE A SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE FOR MVFR CONDITIONS
AT THE KALB/KPOU/KGFL TERMINALS WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS CONTINUING.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING NORTH-NORTHEAST AROUND 5
KT BY THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PDS RA.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT. IT WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
WEDNESDAY...AND THEN NORTHEAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY.
A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND INTERMITTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...EVEN
THOUGH WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF SOUTH AND EAST THE REGION. INTERMITTENT RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED FROM TODAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST
RAINFALL EXPECTED FOR LATE WED INTO EARLY THU.

WITH THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR...ESP LATE WED INTO EARLY THU. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO
TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA
DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL
WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD OF A FEW DAYS...SO NO WIDESPREAD
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS
THAT THE GREATEST AMTS WOULD BE FAVORED ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...ESP SOUTHERN VT...AND POSSIBLY THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS...WITH LESS AMTS OCCURRING WITHIN THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY DUE TO DOWNSLOPING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM










000
FXUS61 KBOX 210830
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
430 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH LINGERING SHOWERS FRIDAY AS THE STORM SLOWLY PULLS
AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND. MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND
WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY...

PER LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TROUGH AMPLIFICATION TAKING PLACE
OVER THE OH VLY INTO PA AND NY STATE. IN RESPONSE TO THIS
AMPLIFICATION WARM CONVEYOR BELT AND ASSOCIATED RAINS DEVELOPING
OVER THE NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN MA INTO SOUTHWEST NH...ALONG WITH
ANOTHER AREA RI...SOUTHEAST MA AND ADJACENT WATERS. THIS SECOND AREA
SHOULD BECOME THE FOCUS FOR POTENTIALLY HEAVIER RAINFALL LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON...AS LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND
INCREASES IN MAGNITUDE ACROSS THIS AREA. THIS DIFFERENTIAL WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL YIELD ELEVATED INSTABILITY INCREASING THE RISK OF
EMBEDDED CONVECTION WITHIN THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT RAINS ACROSS CAPE
COD AND THE ISLANDS LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON.

THE 00Z GUID INCLUDING THE LATEST RAP13/W-ARW/HRRR AND THE 03Z SREF
ARE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON ANY HEAVIER RAINBANDS AND EMBEDDED
CONVECTION TO TRACK OVER THE CAPE AND ISLANDS...AND POSSIBLY
OFFSHORE. THUS HAVE CONFINED CHANCE OF HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDER TO THE
REGION. RISK OF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE FROM ABOUT 15Z TO 21Z TODAY AND
CONFINED TO CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.

ELSEWHERE NOT MUCH APPRECIABLE RAINFALL TODAY. MAINLY PERIODS OF
RAIN AND FOR THE MOST PART ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

AS FOR TEMPS...ON THE MILD SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
ACROSS MUCH OF RI AND SOUTHEAST MA AS WARM SECTOR OVERSPREADS THIS
REGION. FARTHER INLAND COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...

DRY SLOT OVERSPREADS THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF
DRIZZLE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BECOMES TRAPPED BENEATH DRY AIR ALOFT.
FARTHER INLAND ACROSS SOUTHERN NH AND WESTERN MA A STEADIER RAIN IS
POSSIBLE AS COMMA HEAD RAINS MAY CLIP THIS REGION WHILE BULK OF RAIN
IS CONFINED TO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

AS FOR TEMPS...NOT MUCH OF A DROP OFF GIVEN ONSHORE FLOW/CLOUDS AND
LIGHT PRECIP.

WEDNESDAY...

TRAILING SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND THEN
TAKES AIM AT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATER IN THE DAY. STRONG SYNOPTIC
SCALE FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE AND RESULTS IN COASTAL LOW OFF NJ
COAST TO INTENSIFY. THUS SLUG OF HEAVY RAIN LIKELY TO MOVE ONSHORE
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE DAY. IN ADDITION AS DRY SLOT
APPROACHES THETA-E LAPSE RATES BEGIN TO DECREASE. THUS EMBEDDED
CONVECTION POSSIBLE AND WOULD ENHANCE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL. THIS
WILL INCREASE THE RISK URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING AND MAY IMPACT
THE EVENING COMMUTE.

TEMPS SIMILAR AS TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE L60S OVER SOUTHEAST MA AND
COOLING INTO THE 50S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

WITH FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MID TERM REGARDING A
SLOW MEANDERING AND STACKED LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVING JUST TO THE S
OF SRN NEW ENGLAND...A GENERAL CONSENSUS BLEND WILL BE USED AS A
BASELINE FOR THIS FORECAST. FOR THE REMAINDER...TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK...THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT A BIT OF A
HIGHER AMPLIFICATION BIAS /SOMEWHAT TYPICAL OF THIS MODEL/. WHILE
OTHER OPERATIONAL MODELS AND SEVERAL OF IT/S OWN ENSEMBLES ARE
MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH A SECONDARY KICKER WAVE AND HIGH PRES.
THEREFORE...WILL ADD LESS WEIGHT TO THE ECMWF BY THE LATE WEEK AND
WEEKEND-EARLY NEXT WEEK TIME FRAME.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE THE KEY FEATURE INITIALLY IS A SLOW MOVING
CUTOFF LOW PRES WITH ATTENDANT OCCLUDING SFC LOW THROUGH LATE IN
THE WEEK. IT/S NOT UNTIL A KICKER WAVE /DEEPENING WAVE EJECTING
OUT OF THE CANADIAN W/ MOVES IN ON SAT THAT THE LOW PRES MOVES
FULLY INTO THE MARITIMES AND ALLOWS DRIER AIR TO FULLY BUILD IN.
THEREFORE...EXPECT THE WET/GRAY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRI
WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT FROM THEN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DETAILS...

WED NIGHT INTO THU...
AT THIS POINT ALL FEATURES LINE UP FOR THE POTENTIALLY WETTEST
PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. IN ESSENCE A REINFORCING LLJ /ABOUT 40+ KT
MAINLY N OF THE BOX CWA/ MOVES IN COMBINED WITH UPPER LVL DRY SLOT
AND NEAR 6.0+ C/KM LAPSE RATES. THEREFORE...LOOKS LIKE A DECENT
SETUP FOR CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WITH THIS LLJ PARTICULARLY BETWEEN
00Z AND 12Z ON THU. WITH MODEST PWATS UP TO 1.5 INCHES /ABOUT 2+
STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL/. COULD SEE POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAIN
THROUGH THE PERIOD...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
ON THU AS THE LLJ AND DRY SLOT SHIFT N. RIGHT NOW THE PRIMARY
THREAT WOULD BE THE TYPICAL URBAN AREAS WHERE DRAINAGE IS POOR FOR
ANY NUISANCE FLOODING...BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS OVER
THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. OTHERWISE...THE GRAY/DAMP CONDITIONS
CONTINUE WITH ONSHORE FLOW AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE/CLOUD COVER. DUE
TO THIS CLOUD COVER...SUSPECT THAT LOWS REMAIN MAINLY IN THE 50S
AND HIGHS ONLY RISE INTO THE MID 50S AND LOW 60S.

FRI...
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AS THE UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OF
CANADA BEGINS TO FORCE THE UPPER LVL CUTOFF TO THE E AND WEAKENS
IT. STILL ENOUGH UPPER LVL COOL AIR AND MOISTURE TO SUPPORT A FEW
MORE SHOWERS. SO THE GRAY/WET CONDITIONS CONTINUE...BUT WITH A
MORE N COMPONENT TO THE FLOW...THESE SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO BE
FEWER AND FARTHER BETWEEN. TEMPS A BIT WARMER...MAINLY UPPER 50S
TO MID 60S.

SAT AND SUN...
SFC COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION...WHICH SHOULD FINALLY RELEASE THE REGION FROM
THE GRIPS OF THE CUTOFF. AT THIS POINT WITH DRIER AIR MOVING
IN...MAY ONLY SEE CLOUD COVER WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION MAINLY SAT NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUN. THE DIFFERENCES IN AMPLIFICATION BETWEEN MODELS MAKE
IT DIFFICULT TO TELL EXACTLY HOW DEEP THE COLD AIR GETS SAT NIGHT
INTO SUN...BUT WITH FULL MIXING HIGHS OF LOW-MID 60S ARE NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION WITH LOWS FALLING BACK INTO THE 40S.

MON AND TUE...
HIGH PRES BUILDS IN ACROSS THE AREA WITH DRIER AIR AND MOSTLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS. TEMPS MAY BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS...IF NOT
SLIGHTLY ABOVE DEPENDING ON HOW DEEP THE COOL AIR BECOMES AT THIS
POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

AVERAGE FORECAST CONFIDENCE. BAND OF HEAVIER RAIN SHOULD DEVELOP
OVER CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS AROUND OR AFTER 15Z TODAY...THEN
LIFT NORTH AND PIVOT NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IS LOWER ON EXACT LOCATION AND TIMING OF THIS FEATURE.

THRU 12Z...

VFR WITH LOW RISK OF AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND AND ALSO OVER CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. OTHERWISE
MAINLY DRY WEATHER PREVAILS.

AFTER 12Z...

VFR WITH LIGHT SPOTTY RAIN POSSIBLE WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND OVER
CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. THEN RAIN SHOULD BECOME FOCUSED OVER THE
CAPE AND ISLANDS AFTER 15Z WITH AREAS OF LIGHT/SPOTTY RAIN
ELSEWHERE. VFR WILL LOWER TO MVFR AFTER 15Z ACROSS EASTERN MA AND
POSSIBLE WESTWARD INTO RI. VERY LOW RISK OF ISOLATED THUNDER OVER
THIS AREA.

TONIGHT...

MAIN AREA OF RAIN LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND.
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL BE COMMON ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TERMINALS WITH VFR/MVFR TRENDING TOWARD IFR LATE TONIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...

IFR/MVFR WITH MOST OF THE RAIN CONFINED TO THE INTERIOR. HOWEVER
A NEW AREA OF RAIN SHOULD MOVE ONSHORE TO THE SOUTH COAST LATE IN
THE DAY. E-NE WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY AS WELL.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
EXACT TIMING AND DETAILS.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
EXACT TIMING AND DETAILS.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
MAINLY IFR/MVFR WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE. LOW CIGS AND
VSBYS IN HEAVIER RAIN AND FOG. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER THROUGH
THE PERIOD. CHANCE FOR LLWS ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THU
MORNING WITH UP TO 40 KT POSSIBLE AT AROUND 2KFT ESPECIALLY
TERMINALS N OF THE MASS PIKE.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
IMPROVING TO VFR. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS ON
FRIDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN SOUTHERN NH AND EASTERN MASS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WED/...

TODAY...

STRONGEST SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER THE EASTERN MA
WATERS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. THUS SCA POSTED FOR THAT AREA.
HEAVY RAIN WITH LOW RISK OF T-STORMS ACROSS THIS AREA. ELSEWHERE
LIGHTER WINDS AND SHOWERS.

TONIGHT...

EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS. LOW RISK OF 25 KT OVER CAPE ANN WATERS.
VSBY REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE.

WEDNESDAY...

HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE EMBEDDED THUNDER MOVES SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE WATERS AND THEN ONSHORE LATE IN THE DAY.
NORTHEAST WINDS 15-20 KT. VSBY REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG AND HEAVY
RAIN LATE IN THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WED NIGHT INTO THU...
MAINLY E-NE FLOW ALONG THE WATERS WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU. THEN
SHIFTING TO NW DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THU. A FEW WIND
GUSTS MAY APPROACH GALE FORCE WED NIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE N
WATERS...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ELSEWHERE. THE
WINDS DROP OFF AS THEY SHIFT THU...BUT THEN GUST AGAIN TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATE DAY THU. OTHERWISE...SEAS BUILD WED
NIGHT INTO THU MORNING WITH AT LEAST 5-9 FT SEAS POSSIBLE. SOME
HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU MORNING.

FRI...
LOW PRES MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE...WINDS AND SEAS MAY STILL REACH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS DURING THE DAY FRI AND INTO FRI
NIGHT...BUT EXPECT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT.

SATURDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ250-254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 210830
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
430 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH LINGERING SHOWERS FRIDAY AS THE STORM SLOWLY PULLS
AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND. MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND
WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY...

PER LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TROUGH AMPLIFICATION TAKING PLACE
OVER THE OH VLY INTO PA AND NY STATE. IN RESPONSE TO THIS
AMPLIFICATION WARM CONVEYOR BELT AND ASSOCIATED RAINS DEVELOPING
OVER THE NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN MA INTO SOUTHWEST NH...ALONG WITH
ANOTHER AREA RI...SOUTHEAST MA AND ADJACENT WATERS. THIS SECOND AREA
SHOULD BECOME THE FOCUS FOR POTENTIALLY HEAVIER RAINFALL LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON...AS LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND
INCREASES IN MAGNITUDE ACROSS THIS AREA. THIS DIFFERENTIAL WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL YIELD ELEVATED INSTABILITY INCREASING THE RISK OF
EMBEDDED CONVECTION WITHIN THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT RAINS ACROSS CAPE
COD AND THE ISLANDS LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON.

THE 00Z GUID INCLUDING THE LATEST RAP13/W-ARW/HRRR AND THE 03Z SREF
ARE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON ANY HEAVIER RAINBANDS AND EMBEDDED
CONVECTION TO TRACK OVER THE CAPE AND ISLANDS...AND POSSIBLY
OFFSHORE. THUS HAVE CONFINED CHANCE OF HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDER TO THE
REGION. RISK OF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE FROM ABOUT 15Z TO 21Z TODAY AND
CONFINED TO CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.

ELSEWHERE NOT MUCH APPRECIABLE RAINFALL TODAY. MAINLY PERIODS OF
RAIN AND FOR THE MOST PART ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

AS FOR TEMPS...ON THE MILD SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
ACROSS MUCH OF RI AND SOUTHEAST MA AS WARM SECTOR OVERSPREADS THIS
REGION. FARTHER INLAND COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...

DRY SLOT OVERSPREADS THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF
DRIZZLE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BECOMES TRAPPED BENEATH DRY AIR ALOFT.
FARTHER INLAND ACROSS SOUTHERN NH AND WESTERN MA A STEADIER RAIN IS
POSSIBLE AS COMMA HEAD RAINS MAY CLIP THIS REGION WHILE BULK OF RAIN
IS CONFINED TO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

AS FOR TEMPS...NOT MUCH OF A DROP OFF GIVEN ONSHORE FLOW/CLOUDS AND
LIGHT PRECIP.

WEDNESDAY...

TRAILING SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND THEN
TAKES AIM AT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATER IN THE DAY. STRONG SYNOPTIC
SCALE FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE AND RESULTS IN COASTAL LOW OFF NJ
COAST TO INTENSIFY. THUS SLUG OF HEAVY RAIN LIKELY TO MOVE ONSHORE
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE DAY. IN ADDITION AS DRY SLOT
APPROACHES THETA-E LAPSE RATES BEGIN TO DECREASE. THUS EMBEDDED
CONVECTION POSSIBLE AND WOULD ENHANCE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL. THIS
WILL INCREASE THE RISK URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING AND MAY IMPACT
THE EVENING COMMUTE.

TEMPS SIMILAR AS TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE L60S OVER SOUTHEAST MA AND
COOLING INTO THE 50S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

WITH FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MID TERM REGARDING A
SLOW MEANDERING AND STACKED LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVING JUST TO THE S
OF SRN NEW ENGLAND...A GENERAL CONSENSUS BLEND WILL BE USED AS A
BASELINE FOR THIS FORECAST. FOR THE REMAINDER...TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK...THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT A BIT OF A
HIGHER AMPLIFICATION BIAS /SOMEWHAT TYPICAL OF THIS MODEL/. WHILE
OTHER OPERATIONAL MODELS AND SEVERAL OF IT/S OWN ENSEMBLES ARE
MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH A SECONDARY KICKER WAVE AND HIGH PRES.
THEREFORE...WILL ADD LESS WEIGHT TO THE ECMWF BY THE LATE WEEK AND
WEEKEND-EARLY NEXT WEEK TIME FRAME.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE THE KEY FEATURE INITIALLY IS A SLOW MOVING
CUTOFF LOW PRES WITH ATTENDANT OCCLUDING SFC LOW THROUGH LATE IN
THE WEEK. IT/S NOT UNTIL A KICKER WAVE /DEEPENING WAVE EJECTING
OUT OF THE CANADIAN W/ MOVES IN ON SAT THAT THE LOW PRES MOVES
FULLY INTO THE MARITIMES AND ALLOWS DRIER AIR TO FULLY BUILD IN.
THEREFORE...EXPECT THE WET/GRAY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRI
WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT FROM THEN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DETAILS...

WED NIGHT INTO THU...
AT THIS POINT ALL FEATURES LINE UP FOR THE POTENTIALLY WETTEST
PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. IN ESSENCE A REINFORCING LLJ /ABOUT 40+ KT
MAINLY N OF THE BOX CWA/ MOVES IN COMBINED WITH UPPER LVL DRY SLOT
AND NEAR 6.0+ C/KM LAPSE RATES. THEREFORE...LOOKS LIKE A DECENT
SETUP FOR CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WITH THIS LLJ PARTICULARLY BETWEEN
00Z AND 12Z ON THU. WITH MODEST PWATS UP TO 1.5 INCHES /ABOUT 2+
STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL/. COULD SEE POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAIN
THROUGH THE PERIOD...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
ON THU AS THE LLJ AND DRY SLOT SHIFT N. RIGHT NOW THE PRIMARY
THREAT WOULD BE THE TYPICAL URBAN AREAS WHERE DRAINAGE IS POOR FOR
ANY NUISANCE FLOODING...BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS OVER
THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. OTHERWISE...THE GRAY/DAMP CONDITIONS
CONTINUE WITH ONSHORE FLOW AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE/CLOUD COVER. DUE
TO THIS CLOUD COVER...SUSPECT THAT LOWS REMAIN MAINLY IN THE 50S
AND HIGHS ONLY RISE INTO THE MID 50S AND LOW 60S.

FRI...
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AS THE UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OF
CANADA BEGINS TO FORCE THE UPPER LVL CUTOFF TO THE E AND WEAKENS
IT. STILL ENOUGH UPPER LVL COOL AIR AND MOISTURE TO SUPPORT A FEW
MORE SHOWERS. SO THE GRAY/WET CONDITIONS CONTINUE...BUT WITH A
MORE N COMPONENT TO THE FLOW...THESE SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO BE
FEWER AND FARTHER BETWEEN. TEMPS A BIT WARMER...MAINLY UPPER 50S
TO MID 60S.

SAT AND SUN...
SFC COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION...WHICH SHOULD FINALLY RELEASE THE REGION FROM
THE GRIPS OF THE CUTOFF. AT THIS POINT WITH DRIER AIR MOVING
IN...MAY ONLY SEE CLOUD COVER WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION MAINLY SAT NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUN. THE DIFFERENCES IN AMPLIFICATION BETWEEN MODELS MAKE
IT DIFFICULT TO TELL EXACTLY HOW DEEP THE COLD AIR GETS SAT NIGHT
INTO SUN...BUT WITH FULL MIXING HIGHS OF LOW-MID 60S ARE NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION WITH LOWS FALLING BACK INTO THE 40S.

MON AND TUE...
HIGH PRES BUILDS IN ACROSS THE AREA WITH DRIER AIR AND MOSTLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS. TEMPS MAY BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS...IF NOT
SLIGHTLY ABOVE DEPENDING ON HOW DEEP THE COOL AIR BECOMES AT THIS
POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

AVERAGE FORECAST CONFIDENCE. BAND OF HEAVIER RAIN SHOULD DEVELOP
OVER CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS AROUND OR AFTER 15Z TODAY...THEN
LIFT NORTH AND PIVOT NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IS LOWER ON EXACT LOCATION AND TIMING OF THIS FEATURE.

THRU 12Z...

VFR WITH LOW RISK OF AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND AND ALSO OVER CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. OTHERWISE
MAINLY DRY WEATHER PREVAILS.

AFTER 12Z...

VFR WITH LIGHT SPOTTY RAIN POSSIBLE WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND OVER
CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. THEN RAIN SHOULD BECOME FOCUSED OVER THE
CAPE AND ISLANDS AFTER 15Z WITH AREAS OF LIGHT/SPOTTY RAIN
ELSEWHERE. VFR WILL LOWER TO MVFR AFTER 15Z ACROSS EASTERN MA AND
POSSIBLE WESTWARD INTO RI. VERY LOW RISK OF ISOLATED THUNDER OVER
THIS AREA.

TONIGHT...

MAIN AREA OF RAIN LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND.
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL BE COMMON ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TERMINALS WITH VFR/MVFR TRENDING TOWARD IFR LATE TONIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...

IFR/MVFR WITH MOST OF THE RAIN CONFINED TO THE INTERIOR. HOWEVER
A NEW AREA OF RAIN SHOULD MOVE ONSHORE TO THE SOUTH COAST LATE IN
THE DAY. E-NE WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY AS WELL.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
EXACT TIMING AND DETAILS.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
EXACT TIMING AND DETAILS.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
MAINLY IFR/MVFR WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE. LOW CIGS AND
VSBYS IN HEAVIER RAIN AND FOG. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER THROUGH
THE PERIOD. CHANCE FOR LLWS ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THU
MORNING WITH UP TO 40 KT POSSIBLE AT AROUND 2KFT ESPECIALLY
TERMINALS N OF THE MASS PIKE.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
IMPROVING TO VFR. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS ON
FRIDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN SOUTHERN NH AND EASTERN MASS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WED/...

TODAY...

STRONGEST SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER THE EASTERN MA
WATERS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. THUS SCA POSTED FOR THAT AREA.
HEAVY RAIN WITH LOW RISK OF T-STORMS ACROSS THIS AREA. ELSEWHERE
LIGHTER WINDS AND SHOWERS.

TONIGHT...

EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS. LOW RISK OF 25 KT OVER CAPE ANN WATERS.
VSBY REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE.

WEDNESDAY...

HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE EMBEDDED THUNDER MOVES SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE WATERS AND THEN ONSHORE LATE IN THE DAY.
NORTHEAST WINDS 15-20 KT. VSBY REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG AND HEAVY
RAIN LATE IN THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WED NIGHT INTO THU...
MAINLY E-NE FLOW ALONG THE WATERS WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU. THEN
SHIFTING TO NW DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THU. A FEW WIND
GUSTS MAY APPROACH GALE FORCE WED NIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE N
WATERS...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ELSEWHERE. THE
WINDS DROP OFF AS THEY SHIFT THU...BUT THEN GUST AGAIN TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATE DAY THU. OTHERWISE...SEAS BUILD WED
NIGHT INTO THU MORNING WITH AT LEAST 5-9 FT SEAS POSSIBLE. SOME
HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU MORNING.

FRI...
LOW PRES MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE...WINDS AND SEAS MAY STILL REACH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS DURING THE DAY FRI AND INTO FRI
NIGHT...BUT EXPECT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT.

SATURDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ250-254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 210830
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
430 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH LINGERING SHOWERS FRIDAY AS THE STORM SLOWLY PULLS
AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND. MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND
WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY...

PER LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TROUGH AMPLIFICATION TAKING PLACE
OVER THE OH VLY INTO PA AND NY STATE. IN RESPONSE TO THIS
AMPLIFICATION WARM CONVEYOR BELT AND ASSOCIATED RAINS DEVELOPING
OVER THE NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN MA INTO SOUTHWEST NH...ALONG WITH
ANOTHER AREA RI...SOUTHEAST MA AND ADJACENT WATERS. THIS SECOND AREA
SHOULD BECOME THE FOCUS FOR POTENTIALLY HEAVIER RAINFALL LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON...AS LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND
INCREASES IN MAGNITUDE ACROSS THIS AREA. THIS DIFFERENTIAL WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL YIELD ELEVATED INSTABILITY INCREASING THE RISK OF
EMBEDDED CONVECTION WITHIN THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT RAINS ACROSS CAPE
COD AND THE ISLANDS LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON.

THE 00Z GUID INCLUDING THE LATEST RAP13/W-ARW/HRRR AND THE 03Z SREF
ARE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON ANY HEAVIER RAINBANDS AND EMBEDDED
CONVECTION TO TRACK OVER THE CAPE AND ISLANDS...AND POSSIBLY
OFFSHORE. THUS HAVE CONFINED CHANCE OF HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDER TO THE
REGION. RISK OF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE FROM ABOUT 15Z TO 21Z TODAY AND
CONFINED TO CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.

ELSEWHERE NOT MUCH APPRECIABLE RAINFALL TODAY. MAINLY PERIODS OF
RAIN AND FOR THE MOST PART ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

AS FOR TEMPS...ON THE MILD SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
ACROSS MUCH OF RI AND SOUTHEAST MA AS WARM SECTOR OVERSPREADS THIS
REGION. FARTHER INLAND COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...

DRY SLOT OVERSPREADS THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF
DRIZZLE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BECOMES TRAPPED BENEATH DRY AIR ALOFT.
FARTHER INLAND ACROSS SOUTHERN NH AND WESTERN MA A STEADIER RAIN IS
POSSIBLE AS COMMA HEAD RAINS MAY CLIP THIS REGION WHILE BULK OF RAIN
IS CONFINED TO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

AS FOR TEMPS...NOT MUCH OF A DROP OFF GIVEN ONSHORE FLOW/CLOUDS AND
LIGHT PRECIP.

WEDNESDAY...

TRAILING SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND THEN
TAKES AIM AT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATER IN THE DAY. STRONG SYNOPTIC
SCALE FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE AND RESULTS IN COASTAL LOW OFF NJ
COAST TO INTENSIFY. THUS SLUG OF HEAVY RAIN LIKELY TO MOVE ONSHORE
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE DAY. IN ADDITION AS DRY SLOT
APPROACHES THETA-E LAPSE RATES BEGIN TO DECREASE. THUS EMBEDDED
CONVECTION POSSIBLE AND WOULD ENHANCE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL. THIS
WILL INCREASE THE RISK URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING AND MAY IMPACT
THE EVENING COMMUTE.

TEMPS SIMILAR AS TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE L60S OVER SOUTHEAST MA AND
COOLING INTO THE 50S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

WITH FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MID TERM REGARDING A
SLOW MEANDERING AND STACKED LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVING JUST TO THE S
OF SRN NEW ENGLAND...A GENERAL CONSENSUS BLEND WILL BE USED AS A
BASELINE FOR THIS FORECAST. FOR THE REMAINDER...TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK...THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT A BIT OF A
HIGHER AMPLIFICATION BIAS /SOMEWHAT TYPICAL OF THIS MODEL/. WHILE
OTHER OPERATIONAL MODELS AND SEVERAL OF IT/S OWN ENSEMBLES ARE
MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH A SECONDARY KICKER WAVE AND HIGH PRES.
THEREFORE...WILL ADD LESS WEIGHT TO THE ECMWF BY THE LATE WEEK AND
WEEKEND-EARLY NEXT WEEK TIME FRAME.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE THE KEY FEATURE INITIALLY IS A SLOW MOVING
CUTOFF LOW PRES WITH ATTENDANT OCCLUDING SFC LOW THROUGH LATE IN
THE WEEK. IT/S NOT UNTIL A KICKER WAVE /DEEPENING WAVE EJECTING
OUT OF THE CANADIAN W/ MOVES IN ON SAT THAT THE LOW PRES MOVES
FULLY INTO THE MARITIMES AND ALLOWS DRIER AIR TO FULLY BUILD IN.
THEREFORE...EXPECT THE WET/GRAY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRI
WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT FROM THEN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DETAILS...

WED NIGHT INTO THU...
AT THIS POINT ALL FEATURES LINE UP FOR THE POTENTIALLY WETTEST
PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. IN ESSENCE A REINFORCING LLJ /ABOUT 40+ KT
MAINLY N OF THE BOX CWA/ MOVES IN COMBINED WITH UPPER LVL DRY SLOT
AND NEAR 6.0+ C/KM LAPSE RATES. THEREFORE...LOOKS LIKE A DECENT
SETUP FOR CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WITH THIS LLJ PARTICULARLY BETWEEN
00Z AND 12Z ON THU. WITH MODEST PWATS UP TO 1.5 INCHES /ABOUT 2+
STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL/. COULD SEE POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAIN
THROUGH THE PERIOD...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
ON THU AS THE LLJ AND DRY SLOT SHIFT N. RIGHT NOW THE PRIMARY
THREAT WOULD BE THE TYPICAL URBAN AREAS WHERE DRAINAGE IS POOR FOR
ANY NUISANCE FLOODING...BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS OVER
THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. OTHERWISE...THE GRAY/DAMP CONDITIONS
CONTINUE WITH ONSHORE FLOW AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE/CLOUD COVER. DUE
TO THIS CLOUD COVER...SUSPECT THAT LOWS REMAIN MAINLY IN THE 50S
AND HIGHS ONLY RISE INTO THE MID 50S AND LOW 60S.

FRI...
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AS THE UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OF
CANADA BEGINS TO FORCE THE UPPER LVL CUTOFF TO THE E AND WEAKENS
IT. STILL ENOUGH UPPER LVL COOL AIR AND MOISTURE TO SUPPORT A FEW
MORE SHOWERS. SO THE GRAY/WET CONDITIONS CONTINUE...BUT WITH A
MORE N COMPONENT TO THE FLOW...THESE SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO BE
FEWER AND FARTHER BETWEEN. TEMPS A BIT WARMER...MAINLY UPPER 50S
TO MID 60S.

SAT AND SUN...
SFC COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION...WHICH SHOULD FINALLY RELEASE THE REGION FROM
THE GRIPS OF THE CUTOFF. AT THIS POINT WITH DRIER AIR MOVING
IN...MAY ONLY SEE CLOUD COVER WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION MAINLY SAT NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUN. THE DIFFERENCES IN AMPLIFICATION BETWEEN MODELS MAKE
IT DIFFICULT TO TELL EXACTLY HOW DEEP THE COLD AIR GETS SAT NIGHT
INTO SUN...BUT WITH FULL MIXING HIGHS OF LOW-MID 60S ARE NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION WITH LOWS FALLING BACK INTO THE 40S.

MON AND TUE...
HIGH PRES BUILDS IN ACROSS THE AREA WITH DRIER AIR AND MOSTLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS. TEMPS MAY BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS...IF NOT
SLIGHTLY ABOVE DEPENDING ON HOW DEEP THE COOL AIR BECOMES AT THIS
POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

AVERAGE FORECAST CONFIDENCE. BAND OF HEAVIER RAIN SHOULD DEVELOP
OVER CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS AROUND OR AFTER 15Z TODAY...THEN
LIFT NORTH AND PIVOT NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IS LOWER ON EXACT LOCATION AND TIMING OF THIS FEATURE.

THRU 12Z...

VFR WITH LOW RISK OF AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND AND ALSO OVER CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. OTHERWISE
MAINLY DRY WEATHER PREVAILS.

AFTER 12Z...

VFR WITH LIGHT SPOTTY RAIN POSSIBLE WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND OVER
CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. THEN RAIN SHOULD BECOME FOCUSED OVER THE
CAPE AND ISLANDS AFTER 15Z WITH AREAS OF LIGHT/SPOTTY RAIN
ELSEWHERE. VFR WILL LOWER TO MVFR AFTER 15Z ACROSS EASTERN MA AND
POSSIBLE WESTWARD INTO RI. VERY LOW RISK OF ISOLATED THUNDER OVER
THIS AREA.

TONIGHT...

MAIN AREA OF RAIN LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND.
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL BE COMMON ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TERMINALS WITH VFR/MVFR TRENDING TOWARD IFR LATE TONIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...

IFR/MVFR WITH MOST OF THE RAIN CONFINED TO THE INTERIOR. HOWEVER
A NEW AREA OF RAIN SHOULD MOVE ONSHORE TO THE SOUTH COAST LATE IN
THE DAY. E-NE WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY AS WELL.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
EXACT TIMING AND DETAILS.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
EXACT TIMING AND DETAILS.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
MAINLY IFR/MVFR WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE. LOW CIGS AND
VSBYS IN HEAVIER RAIN AND FOG. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER THROUGH
THE PERIOD. CHANCE FOR LLWS ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THU
MORNING WITH UP TO 40 KT POSSIBLE AT AROUND 2KFT ESPECIALLY
TERMINALS N OF THE MASS PIKE.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
IMPROVING TO VFR. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS ON
FRIDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN SOUTHERN NH AND EASTERN MASS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WED/...

TODAY...

STRONGEST SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER THE EASTERN MA
WATERS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. THUS SCA POSTED FOR THAT AREA.
HEAVY RAIN WITH LOW RISK OF T-STORMS ACROSS THIS AREA. ELSEWHERE
LIGHTER WINDS AND SHOWERS.

TONIGHT...

EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS. LOW RISK OF 25 KT OVER CAPE ANN WATERS.
VSBY REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE.

WEDNESDAY...

HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE EMBEDDED THUNDER MOVES SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE WATERS AND THEN ONSHORE LATE IN THE DAY.
NORTHEAST WINDS 15-20 KT. VSBY REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG AND HEAVY
RAIN LATE IN THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WED NIGHT INTO THU...
MAINLY E-NE FLOW ALONG THE WATERS WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU. THEN
SHIFTING TO NW DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THU. A FEW WIND
GUSTS MAY APPROACH GALE FORCE WED NIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE N
WATERS...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ELSEWHERE. THE
WINDS DROP OFF AS THEY SHIFT THU...BUT THEN GUST AGAIN TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATE DAY THU. OTHERWISE...SEAS BUILD WED
NIGHT INTO THU MORNING WITH AT LEAST 5-9 FT SEAS POSSIBLE. SOME
HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU MORNING.

FRI...
LOW PRES MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE...WINDS AND SEAS MAY STILL REACH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS DURING THE DAY FRI AND INTO FRI
NIGHT...BUT EXPECT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT.

SATURDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ250-254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 210830
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
430 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH LINGERING SHOWERS FRIDAY AS THE STORM SLOWLY PULLS
AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND. MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND
WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY...

PER LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TROUGH AMPLIFICATION TAKING PLACE
OVER THE OH VLY INTO PA AND NY STATE. IN RESPONSE TO THIS
AMPLIFICATION WARM CONVEYOR BELT AND ASSOCIATED RAINS DEVELOPING
OVER THE NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN MA INTO SOUTHWEST NH...ALONG WITH
ANOTHER AREA RI...SOUTHEAST MA AND ADJACENT WATERS. THIS SECOND AREA
SHOULD BECOME THE FOCUS FOR POTENTIALLY HEAVIER RAINFALL LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON...AS LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND
INCREASES IN MAGNITUDE ACROSS THIS AREA. THIS DIFFERENTIAL WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL YIELD ELEVATED INSTABILITY INCREASING THE RISK OF
EMBEDDED CONVECTION WITHIN THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT RAINS ACROSS CAPE
COD AND THE ISLANDS LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON.

THE 00Z GUID INCLUDING THE LATEST RAP13/W-ARW/HRRR AND THE 03Z SREF
ARE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON ANY HEAVIER RAINBANDS AND EMBEDDED
CONVECTION TO TRACK OVER THE CAPE AND ISLANDS...AND POSSIBLY
OFFSHORE. THUS HAVE CONFINED CHANCE OF HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDER TO THE
REGION. RISK OF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE FROM ABOUT 15Z TO 21Z TODAY AND
CONFINED TO CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.

ELSEWHERE NOT MUCH APPRECIABLE RAINFALL TODAY. MAINLY PERIODS OF
RAIN AND FOR THE MOST PART ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

AS FOR TEMPS...ON THE MILD SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
ACROSS MUCH OF RI AND SOUTHEAST MA AS WARM SECTOR OVERSPREADS THIS
REGION. FARTHER INLAND COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...

DRY SLOT OVERSPREADS THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF
DRIZZLE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BECOMES TRAPPED BENEATH DRY AIR ALOFT.
FARTHER INLAND ACROSS SOUTHERN NH AND WESTERN MA A STEADIER RAIN IS
POSSIBLE AS COMMA HEAD RAINS MAY CLIP THIS REGION WHILE BULK OF RAIN
IS CONFINED TO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

AS FOR TEMPS...NOT MUCH OF A DROP OFF GIVEN ONSHORE FLOW/CLOUDS AND
LIGHT PRECIP.

WEDNESDAY...

TRAILING SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND THEN
TAKES AIM AT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATER IN THE DAY. STRONG SYNOPTIC
SCALE FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE AND RESULTS IN COASTAL LOW OFF NJ
COAST TO INTENSIFY. THUS SLUG OF HEAVY RAIN LIKELY TO MOVE ONSHORE
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE DAY. IN ADDITION AS DRY SLOT
APPROACHES THETA-E LAPSE RATES BEGIN TO DECREASE. THUS EMBEDDED
CONVECTION POSSIBLE AND WOULD ENHANCE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL. THIS
WILL INCREASE THE RISK URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING AND MAY IMPACT
THE EVENING COMMUTE.

TEMPS SIMILAR AS TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE L60S OVER SOUTHEAST MA AND
COOLING INTO THE 50S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

WITH FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MID TERM REGARDING A
SLOW MEANDERING AND STACKED LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVING JUST TO THE S
OF SRN NEW ENGLAND...A GENERAL CONSENSUS BLEND WILL BE USED AS A
BASELINE FOR THIS FORECAST. FOR THE REMAINDER...TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK...THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT A BIT OF A
HIGHER AMPLIFICATION BIAS /SOMEWHAT TYPICAL OF THIS MODEL/. WHILE
OTHER OPERATIONAL MODELS AND SEVERAL OF IT/S OWN ENSEMBLES ARE
MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH A SECONDARY KICKER WAVE AND HIGH PRES.
THEREFORE...WILL ADD LESS WEIGHT TO THE ECMWF BY THE LATE WEEK AND
WEEKEND-EARLY NEXT WEEK TIME FRAME.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE THE KEY FEATURE INITIALLY IS A SLOW MOVING
CUTOFF LOW PRES WITH ATTENDANT OCCLUDING SFC LOW THROUGH LATE IN
THE WEEK. IT/S NOT UNTIL A KICKER WAVE /DEEPENING WAVE EJECTING
OUT OF THE CANADIAN W/ MOVES IN ON SAT THAT THE LOW PRES MOVES
FULLY INTO THE MARITIMES AND ALLOWS DRIER AIR TO FULLY BUILD IN.
THEREFORE...EXPECT THE WET/GRAY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRI
WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT FROM THEN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DETAILS...

WED NIGHT INTO THU...
AT THIS POINT ALL FEATURES LINE UP FOR THE POTENTIALLY WETTEST
PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. IN ESSENCE A REINFORCING LLJ /ABOUT 40+ KT
MAINLY N OF THE BOX CWA/ MOVES IN COMBINED WITH UPPER LVL DRY SLOT
AND NEAR 6.0+ C/KM LAPSE RATES. THEREFORE...LOOKS LIKE A DECENT
SETUP FOR CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WITH THIS LLJ PARTICULARLY BETWEEN
00Z AND 12Z ON THU. WITH MODEST PWATS UP TO 1.5 INCHES /ABOUT 2+
STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL/. COULD SEE POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAIN
THROUGH THE PERIOD...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
ON THU AS THE LLJ AND DRY SLOT SHIFT N. RIGHT NOW THE PRIMARY
THREAT WOULD BE THE TYPICAL URBAN AREAS WHERE DRAINAGE IS POOR FOR
ANY NUISANCE FLOODING...BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS OVER
THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. OTHERWISE...THE GRAY/DAMP CONDITIONS
CONTINUE WITH ONSHORE FLOW AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE/CLOUD COVER. DUE
TO THIS CLOUD COVER...SUSPECT THAT LOWS REMAIN MAINLY IN THE 50S
AND HIGHS ONLY RISE INTO THE MID 50S AND LOW 60S.

FRI...
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AS THE UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OF
CANADA BEGINS TO FORCE THE UPPER LVL CUTOFF TO THE E AND WEAKENS
IT. STILL ENOUGH UPPER LVL COOL AIR AND MOISTURE TO SUPPORT A FEW
MORE SHOWERS. SO THE GRAY/WET CONDITIONS CONTINUE...BUT WITH A
MORE N COMPONENT TO THE FLOW...THESE SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO BE
FEWER AND FARTHER BETWEEN. TEMPS A BIT WARMER...MAINLY UPPER 50S
TO MID 60S.

SAT AND SUN...
SFC COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION...WHICH SHOULD FINALLY RELEASE THE REGION FROM
THE GRIPS OF THE CUTOFF. AT THIS POINT WITH DRIER AIR MOVING
IN...MAY ONLY SEE CLOUD COVER WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION MAINLY SAT NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUN. THE DIFFERENCES IN AMPLIFICATION BETWEEN MODELS MAKE
IT DIFFICULT TO TELL EXACTLY HOW DEEP THE COLD AIR GETS SAT NIGHT
INTO SUN...BUT WITH FULL MIXING HIGHS OF LOW-MID 60S ARE NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION WITH LOWS FALLING BACK INTO THE 40S.

MON AND TUE...
HIGH PRES BUILDS IN ACROSS THE AREA WITH DRIER AIR AND MOSTLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS. TEMPS MAY BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS...IF NOT
SLIGHTLY ABOVE DEPENDING ON HOW DEEP THE COOL AIR BECOMES AT THIS
POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

AVERAGE FORECAST CONFIDENCE. BAND OF HEAVIER RAIN SHOULD DEVELOP
OVER CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS AROUND OR AFTER 15Z TODAY...THEN
LIFT NORTH AND PIVOT NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IS LOWER ON EXACT LOCATION AND TIMING OF THIS FEATURE.

THRU 12Z...

VFR WITH LOW RISK OF AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND AND ALSO OVER CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. OTHERWISE
MAINLY DRY WEATHER PREVAILS.

AFTER 12Z...

VFR WITH LIGHT SPOTTY RAIN POSSIBLE WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND OVER
CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. THEN RAIN SHOULD BECOME FOCUSED OVER THE
CAPE AND ISLANDS AFTER 15Z WITH AREAS OF LIGHT/SPOTTY RAIN
ELSEWHERE. VFR WILL LOWER TO MVFR AFTER 15Z ACROSS EASTERN MA AND
POSSIBLE WESTWARD INTO RI. VERY LOW RISK OF ISOLATED THUNDER OVER
THIS AREA.

TONIGHT...

MAIN AREA OF RAIN LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND.
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL BE COMMON ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TERMINALS WITH VFR/MVFR TRENDING TOWARD IFR LATE TONIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...

IFR/MVFR WITH MOST OF THE RAIN CONFINED TO THE INTERIOR. HOWEVER
A NEW AREA OF RAIN SHOULD MOVE ONSHORE TO THE SOUTH COAST LATE IN
THE DAY. E-NE WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY AS WELL.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
EXACT TIMING AND DETAILS.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
EXACT TIMING AND DETAILS.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
MAINLY IFR/MVFR WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE. LOW CIGS AND
VSBYS IN HEAVIER RAIN AND FOG. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER THROUGH
THE PERIOD. CHANCE FOR LLWS ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THU
MORNING WITH UP TO 40 KT POSSIBLE AT AROUND 2KFT ESPECIALLY
TERMINALS N OF THE MASS PIKE.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
IMPROVING TO VFR. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS ON
FRIDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN SOUTHERN NH AND EASTERN MASS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WED/...

TODAY...

STRONGEST SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER THE EASTERN MA
WATERS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. THUS SCA POSTED FOR THAT AREA.
HEAVY RAIN WITH LOW RISK OF T-STORMS ACROSS THIS AREA. ELSEWHERE
LIGHTER WINDS AND SHOWERS.

TONIGHT...

EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS. LOW RISK OF 25 KT OVER CAPE ANN WATERS.
VSBY REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE.

WEDNESDAY...

HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE EMBEDDED THUNDER MOVES SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE WATERS AND THEN ONSHORE LATE IN THE DAY.
NORTHEAST WINDS 15-20 KT. VSBY REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG AND HEAVY
RAIN LATE IN THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WED NIGHT INTO THU...
MAINLY E-NE FLOW ALONG THE WATERS WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU. THEN
SHIFTING TO NW DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THU. A FEW WIND
GUSTS MAY APPROACH GALE FORCE WED NIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE N
WATERS...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ELSEWHERE. THE
WINDS DROP OFF AS THEY SHIFT THU...BUT THEN GUST AGAIN TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATE DAY THU. OTHERWISE...SEAS BUILD WED
NIGHT INTO THU MORNING WITH AT LEAST 5-9 FT SEAS POSSIBLE. SOME
HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU MORNING.

FRI...
LOW PRES MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE...WINDS AND SEAS MAY STILL REACH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS DURING THE DAY FRI AND INTO FRI
NIGHT...BUT EXPECT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT.

SATURDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ250-254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KOKX 210752
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
352 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE DELMARVA AREA TODAY...AND THEN WILL
MEANDER SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND THROUGH THE MID-WEEK PERIOD. THAT LOW
TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES LATE
THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
SATURDAY...THEN CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH WITH SEVERAL STRONG SHORTWAVES DEEPENS OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES AREA. MEANWHILE...SFC LOW PRES DEVELOPS OVER
THE DELMARVA AREA AND SLOWLY TRACKS TOWARDS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WATERS JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND LATE IN THE DAY.

CAN EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY...BUT NOT
MUCH PRECIP IS EXPECTED. A FEW ISOLATED TSTMS POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON DUE TO STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...BUT WOULD
EXPECT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR 2. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE OVER WESTERN
ZONES AND AREAS CLOSER TO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE MILD...TOPPING OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
TEMPS COULD BE A BIT WARMER IF PARTS OF THE CWA BECOME DRY SLOTTED
AND SKIES BREAK UP AND THE SUB POPS OUT FOR A BRIEF TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TONIGHT...BUT RAIN BECOMES LIKELY OVER
WESTERN ZONES AS THE LOW DEEPENS. RAIN THEN CONTINUES THROUGH THE
DAY WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE DELMARVA...AND
BECOMES A NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED LOW WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
SFC LOW. WILL BUMP UP POPS TO LIKELY/CATEGORICAL ON WEDNESDAY AS
THAT LOW MEANDERS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND.

MUCH COOLER ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
STACKED LOW PRESSURE JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WILL SLOWLY DRIFT
NORTH/NORTHEASTWARD LATE THIS WEEK. SHORTWAVE ENERGY OUT OF
CENTRAL CANADA DIVES SOUTHEAST AND MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND. SOME DIFFERENCES ARE NOTED WITH THE STRENGTH
OF THIS SHORTWAVE. UPSTREAM PACIFIC NW SHORTWAVE WILL KICK OUT
EASTERN TROUGH...RESULTING IN RIDGING BETWEEN THE TWO TROUGHS
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT THE SURFACE...SOME MODEL PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES NOTED WITH
REGARD TO THE SFC LOW PRESSURE. GENERALLY EXPECT SFC LOW JUST
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WED NIGHT TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD
BETWEEN EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK THURSDAY.
THE LOW WILL TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST LATE IN THE WEEK TOWARD THE
CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES THIS WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO
MOVE THROUGH LATE SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE RAIN WED
NIGHT...WITH LOW CATEGORICAL POPS OR LIKELY POPS INTO THURSDAY AS
THE STACKED LOW IS SLOW TO MOVE OUT. BANDED PRECIP
LIKELY...PROVIDING ADDITIONAL MEASURABLE QPF MOST LOCATIONS.

SOME SFC BASED INSTABILITY IS NOTED CLOSER TO THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
LOW...OR EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY PER
NAM/GFS. WEAK MID LEVEL INSTABILITY IS PROGGED BY THESE MODELS AS
WELL. CANNOT RULE THUNDER...BUT THIS SHOULD BE TOO ISOLATED TO
MENTION.

DRY WEATHER EVENTUALLY RETURNS FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS THE STORM
SYSTEM DEPARTS.

DAYTIME TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL THURSDAY DUE TO
CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF RAIN. THEREAFTER...TEMPS LIKELY REBOUND
CLOSER TO...IF NOT SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. SUNDAY COULD BE THE
COOLEST DAY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WHILE TEMPS HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO WARM ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK IN SW FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN
BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS NEW YORK...PENNSYLVANIA...AND INTO
VIRGINIA TUESDAY AS ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST.

TRICKY FORECAST NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A WEAK PRES GRADIENT FOR MOST
OF THE PERIOD LEADING TO LIGHT AND VRB WINDS. TRIED TO PINPOINT A
DIRECTION...BUT DIRECTIONS COULD BE ALL OVER THE PLACE UNTIL THE
LOW TRACKS TO THE S OF THE AREA AND A NE FLOW BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KT
DEVELOPS THIS EVE.

CONDS SHOULD BE VFR FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD...BUT COULD SEE
ISOLD MVFR IN ANY RAIN THAT MOVES DIRECTLY OVER ANY OF THE
TERMINALS. SPEAKING OF RAIN...TOUGH TO PINPOINT WHEN AND WHERE BUT
DO NOT EXPECT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF PCPN AT ANY OF THE
TERMINALS...EXCEPT KSWF. AM PROBABLY TOO EARLY IN STEADY -RADZ
BEGINNING AT 23Z TONIGHT...BUT FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS CAN BE MADE IN
SUBSEQUENT TAFS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUE NIGHT...MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR CONDS DEVELOPING WITH SCT LIGHT
RAIN.
.WED THROUGH THU...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN RAIN. NLY FLOW 10 TO 15
KT G20-25KT.
.FRI...IMPROVING CONDS. NW WINDS 15-20 KT WITH 20-25 KT GUSTS.
.SAT..VFR. NW G20KT.

&&

.MARINE...
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW PUSHED SEAS UP TO 5-6 FT ON THE OCEAN
WATERS. WILL ISSUE SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS THIS MORNING. WINDS
LIGHTEN AND SHIFT TO THE SE LATE THIS MORNING...AND SEAS SHOULD
SUBSIDE TO 3-4 FT THEN.

OTHERWISE...MAINLY TRANQUIL CONDS ON THE WATERS AS LOW PRES
DEVELOPS SOUTH OF THE WATERS. GRADIENT TIGHTENS ON WEDNESDAY...AND
SCA CONDS LIKELY BY AFTERNOON. WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING SCA DUE TO
SCA THAT IS UP FOR THIS MORNING.

GUSTY NORTH WINDS WED NIGHT WILL TURN TOWARD THE N/NW THURSDAY AS
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND MAKES SLOW
PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD. GUSTY NW WINDS PERSIST FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THE WINDS MAY BRIEFLY BACK TO THE WEST LATE SAT AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT.

ROUGH SEA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY IMPROVE LATE IN THE
WEEK AND INTO SATURDAY. WESTERLY FETCH THOUGH LIKELY RESULTS IN
HIGHER SEAS FURTHER EAST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM...WILL RESULT IN A
TENTH OF AN INCH OF QPF OR SO THROUGH TONIGHT. RAIN INCREASES LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH QPF LIKELY.
LOCALIZED NUISANCE URBAN OR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

PERIODS OF RAIN...BRIEFLY HEAVY IS SPOTS...COULD RESULT IN
LOCALIZED NUISANCE URBAN OR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING WED NIGHT AND
THURSDAY.

STORM TOTALS SHOULD AVERAGE BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES PER ANALYSIS OF
OPERATIONAL MODELS...AND SREF MEMBERS. THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN SHOULD
NOT RESULT IN ANY SERIOUS LIFE THREATENING OR PROPERTY FLOODING
ISSUES/CONCERNS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS
     MORNING FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPS/PW
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...24
MARINE...MPS/PW
HYDROLOGY...MPS/PW






000
FXUS61 KOKX 210752
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
352 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE DELMARVA AREA TODAY...AND THEN WILL
MEANDER SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND THROUGH THE MID-WEEK PERIOD. THAT LOW
TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES LATE
THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
SATURDAY...THEN CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH WITH SEVERAL STRONG SHORTWAVES DEEPENS OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES AREA. MEANWHILE...SFC LOW PRES DEVELOPS OVER
THE DELMARVA AREA AND SLOWLY TRACKS TOWARDS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WATERS JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND LATE IN THE DAY.

CAN EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY...BUT NOT
MUCH PRECIP IS EXPECTED. A FEW ISOLATED TSTMS POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON DUE TO STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...BUT WOULD
EXPECT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR 2. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE OVER WESTERN
ZONES AND AREAS CLOSER TO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE MILD...TOPPING OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
TEMPS COULD BE A BIT WARMER IF PARTS OF THE CWA BECOME DRY SLOTTED
AND SKIES BREAK UP AND THE SUB POPS OUT FOR A BRIEF TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TONIGHT...BUT RAIN BECOMES LIKELY OVER
WESTERN ZONES AS THE LOW DEEPENS. RAIN THEN CONTINUES THROUGH THE
DAY WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE DELMARVA...AND
BECOMES A NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED LOW WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
SFC LOW. WILL BUMP UP POPS TO LIKELY/CATEGORICAL ON WEDNESDAY AS
THAT LOW MEANDERS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND.

MUCH COOLER ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
STACKED LOW PRESSURE JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WILL SLOWLY DRIFT
NORTH/NORTHEASTWARD LATE THIS WEEK. SHORTWAVE ENERGY OUT OF
CENTRAL CANADA DIVES SOUTHEAST AND MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND. SOME DIFFERENCES ARE NOTED WITH THE STRENGTH
OF THIS SHORTWAVE. UPSTREAM PACIFIC NW SHORTWAVE WILL KICK OUT
EASTERN TROUGH...RESULTING IN RIDGING BETWEEN THE TWO TROUGHS
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT THE SURFACE...SOME MODEL PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES NOTED WITH
REGARD TO THE SFC LOW PRESSURE. GENERALLY EXPECT SFC LOW JUST
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WED NIGHT TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD
BETWEEN EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK THURSDAY.
THE LOW WILL TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST LATE IN THE WEEK TOWARD THE
CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES THIS WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO
MOVE THROUGH LATE SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE RAIN WED
NIGHT...WITH LOW CATEGORICAL POPS OR LIKELY POPS INTO THURSDAY AS
THE STACKED LOW IS SLOW TO MOVE OUT. BANDED PRECIP
LIKELY...PROVIDING ADDITIONAL MEASURABLE QPF MOST LOCATIONS.

SOME SFC BASED INSTABILITY IS NOTED CLOSER TO THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
LOW...OR EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY PER
NAM/GFS. WEAK MID LEVEL INSTABILITY IS PROGGED BY THESE MODELS AS
WELL. CANNOT RULE THUNDER...BUT THIS SHOULD BE TOO ISOLATED TO
MENTION.

DRY WEATHER EVENTUALLY RETURNS FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS THE STORM
SYSTEM DEPARTS.

DAYTIME TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL THURSDAY DUE TO
CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF RAIN. THEREAFTER...TEMPS LIKELY REBOUND
CLOSER TO...IF NOT SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. SUNDAY COULD BE THE
COOLEST DAY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WHILE TEMPS HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO WARM ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK IN SW FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN
BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS NEW YORK...PENNSYLVANIA...AND INTO
VIRGINIA TUESDAY AS ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST.

TRICKY FORECAST NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A WEAK PRES GRADIENT FOR MOST
OF THE PERIOD LEADING TO LIGHT AND VRB WINDS. TRIED TO PINPOINT A
DIRECTION...BUT DIRECTIONS COULD BE ALL OVER THE PLACE UNTIL THE
LOW TRACKS TO THE S OF THE AREA AND A NE FLOW BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KT
DEVELOPS THIS EVE.

CONDS SHOULD BE VFR FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD...BUT COULD SEE
ISOLD MVFR IN ANY RAIN THAT MOVES DIRECTLY OVER ANY OF THE
TERMINALS. SPEAKING OF RAIN...TOUGH TO PINPOINT WHEN AND WHERE BUT
DO NOT EXPECT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF PCPN AT ANY OF THE
TERMINALS...EXCEPT KSWF. AM PROBABLY TOO EARLY IN STEADY -RADZ
BEGINNING AT 23Z TONIGHT...BUT FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS CAN BE MADE IN
SUBSEQUENT TAFS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUE NIGHT...MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR CONDS DEVELOPING WITH SCT LIGHT
RAIN.
.WED THROUGH THU...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN RAIN. NLY FLOW 10 TO 15
KT G20-25KT.
.FRI...IMPROVING CONDS. NW WINDS 15-20 KT WITH 20-25 KT GUSTS.
.SAT..VFR. NW G20KT.

&&

.MARINE...
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW PUSHED SEAS UP TO 5-6 FT ON THE OCEAN
WATERS. WILL ISSUE SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS THIS MORNING. WINDS
LIGHTEN AND SHIFT TO THE SE LATE THIS MORNING...AND SEAS SHOULD
SUBSIDE TO 3-4 FT THEN.

OTHERWISE...MAINLY TRANQUIL CONDS ON THE WATERS AS LOW PRES
DEVELOPS SOUTH OF THE WATERS. GRADIENT TIGHTENS ON WEDNESDAY...AND
SCA CONDS LIKELY BY AFTERNOON. WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING SCA DUE TO
SCA THAT IS UP FOR THIS MORNING.

GUSTY NORTH WINDS WED NIGHT WILL TURN TOWARD THE N/NW THURSDAY AS
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND MAKES SLOW
PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD. GUSTY NW WINDS PERSIST FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THE WINDS MAY BRIEFLY BACK TO THE WEST LATE SAT AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT.

ROUGH SEA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY IMPROVE LATE IN THE
WEEK AND INTO SATURDAY. WESTERLY FETCH THOUGH LIKELY RESULTS IN
HIGHER SEAS FURTHER EAST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM...WILL RESULT IN A
TENTH OF AN INCH OF QPF OR SO THROUGH TONIGHT. RAIN INCREASES LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH QPF LIKELY.
LOCALIZED NUISANCE URBAN OR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

PERIODS OF RAIN...BRIEFLY HEAVY IS SPOTS...COULD RESULT IN
LOCALIZED NUISANCE URBAN OR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING WED NIGHT AND
THURSDAY.

STORM TOTALS SHOULD AVERAGE BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES PER ANALYSIS OF
OPERATIONAL MODELS...AND SREF MEMBERS. THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN SHOULD
NOT RESULT IN ANY SERIOUS LIFE THREATENING OR PROPERTY FLOODING
ISSUES/CONCERNS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS
     MORNING FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPS/PW
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...24
MARINE...MPS/PW
HYDROLOGY...MPS/PW







000
FXUS61 KOKX 210622
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
222 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND REMAINS IN THE
VICINITY THROUGH THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD BEFORE MOVING INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES BY SATURDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY...THEN CROSSES THE TRI-
STATE SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MINOR UPDATE TO ADJUST THE DIURNAL CURVE. CLOUD COVER HAS SLOWED
THE COOLING IN OUTLYING AREAS. NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES MADE.

UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS TOWARDS US TONIGHT ALONG WITH A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER THROUGH
THE NIGHT. MODELS AGREE THAT THERE WILL BE SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT
AND MOISTURE INCREASING OVER THE EASTERNMOST PORTION OF THE TRI
STATE AREA LATE AT NIGHT BUT WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN PLACEMENT.
THERE WILL ALSO BE INCREASING PVA...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE HUDSON
AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES. WILL CONTINUE WITH OVERALL
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOCUSED MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT...BUT WILL GO WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR THE FAR EASTERN
AND FAR WESTERN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST DURING TUESDAY...WITH A SURFACE LOW CENTER
STARTING TO DEVELOP NEAR THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY THE END
OF THE DAY. OVERALL LIFT IS NOT IMPRESSIVE...HOWEVER WITH CONTINUED
PVA AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES IN THE MID LEVELS...THINKING IS THAT
THERE WILL BE AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND. FOR THE
AFTERNOON...THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM
WITH BETTER THE STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND ELEVATED CAPE.

THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS TRICKY FOR TUESDAY AS EXTENDED
BREAKS OF PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP. HAVE GONE
WITH A MAV/NAM MOS BLEND FOR HIGHS...WHICH WERE SIMILAR.

THE LOW STRENGTHENS TO OUR SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH OVERALL BETTER
LIFT FAVORING THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE TRI STATE AREA. HAVE GONE
WITH LIKELY POPS LATE AT NIGHT HERE...WITH CHC POPS ELSEWHERE.
ELEVATED CAPE REMAINS WITH ISO TSTMS...GENERALLY SHIFTING EAST AS
THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT A CUTOFF LOW WILL TRACK FROM NEAR THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY MORNING TO SOMEWHERE NEAR NOVA SCOTIA BY
SATURDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT HAVE GONE WITH A MODEL BLEND THROUGH
THEN.

IT ALSO APPEARS THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL INSTABILITY OVER
THE ENTIRE CWA...AND TO SOME EXTENT LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY MAINLY
OVER SOUTHERN AND FAR EASTERN ZONES...TO WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...IN ADDITION TO LIKELY POPS
FOR RAIN. APPEARS ALL INGREDIENTS COME TOGETHER ISENTROPICALLY TO
WARRANT FORECASTING MODERATE RAINFALL FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE MODERATE RAINFALL POTENTIAL
RETREATING TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. AS THE
CUTOFF LOW PULLS AWAY THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THURSDAY
NIGHT...TAPERING OFF TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. FOR NOW IT APPEARS FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY DUE TO
SUBSIDING NW BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW. REFER TO THE HYDROLOGY SECTION OF
THE AFD FOR STORM TOTAL QPF AND ANY POTENTIAL IMPACTS.

THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE ON THE GENERAL FEATURES TO IMPACT THE AREA
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...BUT DIFFER ON TIMING...AND SOUTHERN PUSH
OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT. NOTING THE GFS SEEMS TO BE
LIVING UP TO ITS PROGRESSIVE BIAS...AND THE CONSISTENCY OF THE ECMWF
AND NOTING THAT THE CMC SUPPORTS THE ECMWF...LEANED TOWARDS THE
ECMWF IN THIS TIME FRAME.

SATURDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE CROSSING THE AREA.
700-500 HPA TROUGH THEN CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...BUT WITH LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...IT
SHOULD PASS BY DRY. A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE THEN BUILDS IN THEN BEGINS
TO BUILD INTO THE REGION INTO MONDAY.

FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE LONG TERM:

A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE...WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND
A MIX DOWN FROM 975-950 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WAS USED FOR HIGHS
ON WEDNESDAY...WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. FOR LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH
NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES WAS USED - WITH READINGS FORECAST TO BE
NEAR NORMAL IN NYC AND AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ELSEWHERE. FOR
HIGHS ON THURSDAY A BLEND OF MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE WAS
USED WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 950-925 HPA
PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS - WITH VALUES EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 5 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

FROM THURSDAY NIGHT-MONDAY A BLEND OF MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC
GUIDANCE WAS USED...WITH ECMWF 2-METER TEMPERATURES BLENDED IN
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...AND THE BLEND ADJUSTED UPWARD 1-2
CATEGORIES TO COUNTER BIAS TOWARDS CLIMATOLOGY IN THE GUIDANCE THAT
FAR OUT IN TIME - NOTING FORECAST 850 TEMPERATURES OF AT LEAST 10C
IN ALL MODELS ON MONDAY. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL
THURSDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...WHILE HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOVE
NORMAL...EXCEPT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON SUNDAY. HIGHS ON MONDAY
COULD VERY WELL END UP 5+ DEGREES WARMER THAN FORECAST IF CURRENT
TRENDS HOLD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN
BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS NEW YORK...PENNSYLVANIA...AND INTO
VIRGINIA TUESDAY AS ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST.

TRICKY FORECAST NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A WEAK PRES GRADIENT FOR MOST
OF THE PERIOD LEADING TO LIGHT AND VRB WINDS. TRIED TO PINPOINT A
DIRECTION...BUT DIRECTIONS COULD BE ALL OVER THE PLACE UNTIL THE
LOW TRACKS TO THE S OF THE AREA AND A NE FLOW BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KT
DEVELOPS THIS EVE.

CONDS SHOULD BE VFR FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD...BUT COULD SEE
ISOLD MVFR IN ANY RAIN THAT MOVES DIRECTLY OVER ANY OF THE
TERMINALS. SPEAKING OF RAIN...TOUGH TO PINPOINT WHEN AND WHERE BUT
DO NOT EXPECT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF PCPN AT ANY OF THE
TERMINALS...EXCEPT KSWF. AM PROBABLY TOO EARLY IN STEADY -RADZ
BEGINNING AT 23Z TONIGHT...BUT FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS CAN BE MADE IN
SUBSEQUENT TAFS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUE NIGHT...MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR CONDS DEVELOPING WITH SCT LIGHT
RAIN.
.WED THROUGH THU...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN RAIN. NLY FLOW 10 TO 15
KT G20-25KT.
.FRI...IMPROVING CONDS. NW WINDS 15-20 KT WITH 20-25 KT GUSTS.
.SAT..VFR. NW G20KT.

&&

.MARINE...
SW WINDS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT WITH A SOMEWHAT WEAKER PRESSURE
GRADIENT DEVELOPING OVER THE WATERS. WINDS GRADUALLY BACK TOWARDS
THE EAST BY LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY...THEN AS A LOW CENTER DEVELOPS
TO THE SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT...WINDS BACK FARTHER TOWARDS THE NE AND
PICK UP AS THE LOW BECOMES STRONGER. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD HOWEVER
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH OF A COASTAL LOW
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THERE IS A DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST IN THAT TIME FRAME THAT IS GREATER THAN NORMAL. FOR NOW IT
APPEARS THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON
THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH A CHANCE OF SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON THE REMAINDER OF
THE WATERS DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

SUB-SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ON ALL WATERS
FRIDAY-SATURDAY - HOWEVER THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS COULD LINGER INTO FRIDAY ON THE EASTERN WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY TODAY...WITH SPOTTY LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS POSSIBLE TONIGHT.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN FROM TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT OVER THE WESTERN 1/3 OF THE
CWA...INCLUDING NYC...AND UP TO 1 1/3 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE
EASTERN 2/3 OF THE CWA...WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS OVER EASTERN CT AND LONG ISLAND.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN ANY AREA
EXPERIENCING STRONGER CONVECTION...WHICH IS LOCALLY POSSIBLE
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IF THIS OCCURS...THEN THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED MINOR URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING. OTHERWISE...WITH THE PRECIPITATION FALLING OVER 48+
HOURS...LITTLE OR NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC IMPACT IS EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KOKX 210622
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
222 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND REMAINS IN THE
VICINITY THROUGH THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD BEFORE MOVING INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES BY SATURDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY...THEN CROSSES THE TRI-
STATE SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MINOR UPDATE TO ADJUST THE DIURNAL CURVE. CLOUD COVER HAS SLOWED
THE COOLING IN OUTLYING AREAS. NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES MADE.

UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS TOWARDS US TONIGHT ALONG WITH A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER THROUGH
THE NIGHT. MODELS AGREE THAT THERE WILL BE SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT
AND MOISTURE INCREASING OVER THE EASTERNMOST PORTION OF THE TRI
STATE AREA LATE AT NIGHT BUT WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN PLACEMENT.
THERE WILL ALSO BE INCREASING PVA...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE HUDSON
AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES. WILL CONTINUE WITH OVERALL
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOCUSED MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT...BUT WILL GO WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR THE FAR EASTERN
AND FAR WESTERN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST DURING TUESDAY...WITH A SURFACE LOW CENTER
STARTING TO DEVELOP NEAR THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY THE END
OF THE DAY. OVERALL LIFT IS NOT IMPRESSIVE...HOWEVER WITH CONTINUED
PVA AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES IN THE MID LEVELS...THINKING IS THAT
THERE WILL BE AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND. FOR THE
AFTERNOON...THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM
WITH BETTER THE STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND ELEVATED CAPE.

THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS TRICKY FOR TUESDAY AS EXTENDED
BREAKS OF PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP. HAVE GONE
WITH A MAV/NAM MOS BLEND FOR HIGHS...WHICH WERE SIMILAR.

THE LOW STRENGTHENS TO OUR SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH OVERALL BETTER
LIFT FAVORING THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE TRI STATE AREA. HAVE GONE
WITH LIKELY POPS LATE AT NIGHT HERE...WITH CHC POPS ELSEWHERE.
ELEVATED CAPE REMAINS WITH ISO TSTMS...GENERALLY SHIFTING EAST AS
THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT A CUTOFF LOW WILL TRACK FROM NEAR THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY MORNING TO SOMEWHERE NEAR NOVA SCOTIA BY
SATURDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT HAVE GONE WITH A MODEL BLEND THROUGH
THEN.

IT ALSO APPEARS THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL INSTABILITY OVER
THE ENTIRE CWA...AND TO SOME EXTENT LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY MAINLY
OVER SOUTHERN AND FAR EASTERN ZONES...TO WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...IN ADDITION TO LIKELY POPS
FOR RAIN. APPEARS ALL INGREDIENTS COME TOGETHER ISENTROPICALLY TO
WARRANT FORECASTING MODERATE RAINFALL FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE MODERATE RAINFALL POTENTIAL
RETREATING TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. AS THE
CUTOFF LOW PULLS AWAY THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THURSDAY
NIGHT...TAPERING OFF TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. FOR NOW IT APPEARS FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY DUE TO
SUBSIDING NW BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW. REFER TO THE HYDROLOGY SECTION OF
THE AFD FOR STORM TOTAL QPF AND ANY POTENTIAL IMPACTS.

THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE ON THE GENERAL FEATURES TO IMPACT THE AREA
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...BUT DIFFER ON TIMING...AND SOUTHERN PUSH
OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT. NOTING THE GFS SEEMS TO BE
LIVING UP TO ITS PROGRESSIVE BIAS...AND THE CONSISTENCY OF THE ECMWF
AND NOTING THAT THE CMC SUPPORTS THE ECMWF...LEANED TOWARDS THE
ECMWF IN THIS TIME FRAME.

SATURDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE CROSSING THE AREA.
700-500 HPA TROUGH THEN CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...BUT WITH LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...IT
SHOULD PASS BY DRY. A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE THEN BUILDS IN THEN BEGINS
TO BUILD INTO THE REGION INTO MONDAY.

FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE LONG TERM:

A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE...WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND
A MIX DOWN FROM 975-950 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WAS USED FOR HIGHS
ON WEDNESDAY...WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. FOR LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH
NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES WAS USED - WITH READINGS FORECAST TO BE
NEAR NORMAL IN NYC AND AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ELSEWHERE. FOR
HIGHS ON THURSDAY A BLEND OF MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE WAS
USED WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 950-925 HPA
PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS - WITH VALUES EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 5 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

FROM THURSDAY NIGHT-MONDAY A BLEND OF MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC
GUIDANCE WAS USED...WITH ECMWF 2-METER TEMPERATURES BLENDED IN
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...AND THE BLEND ADJUSTED UPWARD 1-2
CATEGORIES TO COUNTER BIAS TOWARDS CLIMATOLOGY IN THE GUIDANCE THAT
FAR OUT IN TIME - NOTING FORECAST 850 TEMPERATURES OF AT LEAST 10C
IN ALL MODELS ON MONDAY. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL
THURSDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...WHILE HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOVE
NORMAL...EXCEPT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON SUNDAY. HIGHS ON MONDAY
COULD VERY WELL END UP 5+ DEGREES WARMER THAN FORECAST IF CURRENT
TRENDS HOLD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN
BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS NEW YORK...PENNSYLVANIA...AND INTO
VIRGINIA TUESDAY AS ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST.

TRICKY FORECAST NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A WEAK PRES GRADIENT FOR MOST
OF THE PERIOD LEADING TO LIGHT AND VRB WINDS. TRIED TO PINPOINT A
DIRECTION...BUT DIRECTIONS COULD BE ALL OVER THE PLACE UNTIL THE
LOW TRACKS TO THE S OF THE AREA AND A NE FLOW BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KT
DEVELOPS THIS EVE.

CONDS SHOULD BE VFR FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD...BUT COULD SEE
ISOLD MVFR IN ANY RAIN THAT MOVES DIRECTLY OVER ANY OF THE
TERMINALS. SPEAKING OF RAIN...TOUGH TO PINPOINT WHEN AND WHERE BUT
DO NOT EXPECT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF PCPN AT ANY OF THE
TERMINALS...EXCEPT KSWF. AM PROBABLY TOO EARLY IN STEADY -RADZ
BEGINNING AT 23Z TONIGHT...BUT FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS CAN BE MADE IN
SUBSEQUENT TAFS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUE NIGHT...MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR CONDS DEVELOPING WITH SCT LIGHT
RAIN.
.WED THROUGH THU...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN RAIN. NLY FLOW 10 TO 15
KT G20-25KT.
.FRI...IMPROVING CONDS. NW WINDS 15-20 KT WITH 20-25 KT GUSTS.
.SAT..VFR. NW G20KT.

&&

.MARINE...
SW WINDS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT WITH A SOMEWHAT WEAKER PRESSURE
GRADIENT DEVELOPING OVER THE WATERS. WINDS GRADUALLY BACK TOWARDS
THE EAST BY LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY...THEN AS A LOW CENTER DEVELOPS
TO THE SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT...WINDS BACK FARTHER TOWARDS THE NE AND
PICK UP AS THE LOW BECOMES STRONGER. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD HOWEVER
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH OF A COASTAL LOW
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THERE IS A DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST IN THAT TIME FRAME THAT IS GREATER THAN NORMAL. FOR NOW IT
APPEARS THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON
THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH A CHANCE OF SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON THE REMAINDER OF
THE WATERS DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

SUB-SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ON ALL WATERS
FRIDAY-SATURDAY - HOWEVER THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS COULD LINGER INTO FRIDAY ON THE EASTERN WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY TODAY...WITH SPOTTY LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS POSSIBLE TONIGHT.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN FROM TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT OVER THE WESTERN 1/3 OF THE
CWA...INCLUDING NYC...AND UP TO 1 1/3 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE
EASTERN 2/3 OF THE CWA...WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS OVER EASTERN CT AND LONG ISLAND.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN ANY AREA
EXPERIENCING STRONGER CONVECTION...WHICH IS LOCALLY POSSIBLE
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IF THIS OCCURS...THEN THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED MINOR URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING. OTHERWISE...WITH THE PRECIPITATION FALLING OVER 48+
HOURS...LITTLE OR NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC IMPACT IS EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KBOX 210610
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
210 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH LINGERING SHOWERS FRIDAY AS THE STORM SLOWLY
PULLS AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND.  MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

2 AM UPDATE...

MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY SEEN ON RADAR AT 2 AM IS NOT REACHING THE
GROUND GIVEN CLOUD BASES AROUND 8-10KFT BENEATH RETURNS ON RADAR
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND. COLUMN WILL TAKE SOMETIME
TO SATURATE...AT LEAST UNTIL SUNRISE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THUS
MAINLY DRY WEATHER INTO THE PREDAWN HOURS WITH AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN
MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND ANOTHER AREA OVER CAPE COD AND
THE ISLANDS.

LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION COMMENCING ACROSS LONG ISLAND/CT
COASTLINE TO BLOCK ISLAND WHERE TEMPS HAVE JUMPED INTO THE LOW 60S
AT 2 AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...

***NARROW AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY ACROSS EASTERN NEW
  ENGLAND***

TUESDAY...

INTERESTING SETUP WITH A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR WEST AND A
SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.  THE INTERACTION OF THE
COLD POOL ALOFT...A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET AND AXIS OF SURFACE
CONVERGENCE MAY LEAD TO SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. INTERESTING THAT THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
ARE SHOWING A NARROW AXIS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN SOMEWHERE NEAR
THE I-95 CORRIDOR. EXACT LOCATION REMAINS UNCERTAIN AND IT COULD
REMAIN OFFSHORE...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH. WE MAY BE DEALING WITH
LOCALIZED NUISANCE POOR DRAINAGE STREET FLOODING IN THIS REGION IF
THIS NARROW AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPS.

FURTHER TO THE WEST ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT BEST FORCING/MOISTURE WILL BE ACROSS
OUR EASTERN ZONES...SO ACTIVITY SHOULD NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD.

AS FOR CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...500 MB TEMPS WILL BE BELOW -20C AND
RESULT IN ELEVATED INSTABILITY.  MODEL SOUNDINGS HAVE BEEN
INDICATING MU CAPES ON THE ORDER OF 500 J/KG. HAVE INCLUDED ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST ACROSS SOME OF THE REGION.  WHILE WE
CAN/T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION...BEST SHOT WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.

HIGH TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S ACROSS THE
REGION.

TUESDAY NIGHT...

APPEARS THAT THE DEEPER MOISTURE/LIFT TEMPORARILY SHIFTS TO THE
NORTH OF OUR REGION AND INTO NORTHER NEW ENGLAND.
NONETHELESS...CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND LOW PRESSURE WILL STILL RESULT IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AT TIMES. THE ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY BE MOST
WIDESPREAD ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES...CLOSER TO THE BETTER
DYNAMICS AND FORCING.  LOW TEMPS WILL ONLY DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S
AND LOWER 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...

CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY MIGRATES
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY AND INTO THE MARITIMES FRIDAY. SHORTWAVE
FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST RACES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES
THIS WEEK AND CROSSES NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THEN
BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEAST USA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HEIGHT CONTOURS ARE
BELOW NORMAL MUCH OF THE WEEK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER
LOW...THEN RECOVER TO NORMAL LEVELS BY SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS.

THIS PATTERN FAVORS A COOL WET MID AND LATE WEEK...THEN DRY AND
SEASONABLE BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE TYPES
OF WEATHER...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING.

THE DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...COASTAL LOW SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL DOMINATE OUR
WEATHER AS IT MOVES UP THE COAST. LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH AND AN
EAST 50-60 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS COASTAL MAINE AND WRAPPING INTO
NH/VT. THIS MAY BRING ENHANCED ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS SOUTHERN NH
AND NORTHERN MASS...WITH WEAKER LIFT FARTHER SOUTH. BY THURSDAY THE
COLD CORE IS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. SO WEDNESDAY IS A TRANSITION FROM
STRATIFORM TO CONVECTIVE...THURSDAY MAINLY CONVECTIVE. SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY BOTH DAYS TO INDICATE A CHANCE OF THUNDER.

FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST.
COLD CORE STILL CLOSE ENOUGH TO PROVIDE CLOUDS AND SOME INSTABILITY.
SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE A DIMINISHING CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

SATURDAY...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH
LATER SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT. THE APPROACH OF THIS FRONT MAY
ACTUALLY BE THE NUDGE THAT GETS THE LAST OF THE COLD POOL CLOUDS OUT
OF OUR AREA. THE FRONT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF CLOUDS. THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS IS LESS DEFINED AND SO WE FEATURE JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN SRN NH AND NRN MASS. TEMPS ALOFT SUPPORT DAYTIME
MAX TEMPS IN THE 60S.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH TEMPS
ALOFT WARMER FROM SUNDAY TO MONDAY. TEMPS ALOFT SUPPORT 60S BOTH
DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

AVERAGE FORECAST CONFIDENCE. BAND OF HEAVIER RAIN SHOULD DEVELOP
OVER CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS AROUND OR AFTER 15Z TODAY...THEN
LIFT NORTH AND PIVOT NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IS LOWER ON EXACT LOCATION AND TIMING OF THIS FEATURE.

THRU 12Z...

VFR WITH LOW RISK OF AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND AND ALSO OVER CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. OTHERWISE
MAINLY DRY WEATHER PREVAILS.

AFTER 12Z...

VFR WITH LIGHT SPOTTY RAIN POSSIBLE WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND OVER
CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. THEN RAIN SHOULD BECOME FOCUSED OVER THE
CAPE AND ISLANDS AFTER 15Z WITH AREAS OF LIGHT/SPOTTY RAIN
ELSEWHERE. VFR WILL LOWER TO MVFR AFTER 15Z ACROSS EASTERN MA AND
POSSIBLE WESTWARD INTO RI. VERY LOW RISK OF ISOLATED THUNDER OVER
THIS AREA.

TONIGHT...

MAIN AREA OF RAIN LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND.
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL BE COMMON ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TERMINALS WITH VFR/MVFR TRENDING TOWARD IFR LATE TONIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...

IFR/MVFR WITH MOST OF THE RAIN CONFINED TO THE INTERIOR. HOWEVER
A NEW AREA OF RAIN SHOULD MOVE ONSHORE TO THE SOUTH COAST LATE IN
THE DAY. E-NE WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY AS WELL.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
EXACT TIMING AND DETAILS.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
EXACT TIMING AND DETAILS.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...PROLONGED PERIOD OF MIXED
MVFR/IFR...WITH MORE IFR IN RAIN WEDNESDAY AND MORE MVFR IN
SHOWERS THURSDAY. CHANCE OF THUNDER BOTH DAYS. CHANCE OF 30 KNOT
EAST-NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS WEDNESDAY MORNING ALONG THE OUTER CAPE
AND MASSACHUSETTS NORTH SHORE AREAS.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...VFR. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS ON
FRIDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN SOUTHERN NH AND EASTERN MASS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

940 PM UPDATE...

ONLY CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST IS TO INCREASE WIND SPEEDS A BIT
OVERNIGHT TO 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT. EARLIER DISCUSSION
BELOW.

==================================================================

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
FURTHER EAST OF THE REGION.  THIS WILL RESULT IN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS.  HOWEVER...WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SCA THRESHOLDS.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE WATERS WILL COMBINED WITH A 1030 MB HIGH
OVER EASTERN CANADA.  EASTERLY WINDS ON TUESDAY WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT
TO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS.
PRETTY MUCH A LOCK THAT SCA SEAS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS OUR EASTERN AND
PARTICULARLY OUR NORTHERN OUTER-WATERS TUE AFTERNOON INTO TUE NIGHT.
IN FACT...BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY SEAS MAY BE APPROACHING 10 FEET
ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN WATERS ALONG WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS.  SCA
HEADLINES POSTED FOR THIS REGION.

WE MAY ALSO SEE SOME 5 FOOT SEAS DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS
TOWARDS 12Z WEDNESDAY...BUT ITS TOO MARGINAL FOR LATE 3RD PERIOD SCA
HEADLINES IN THIS REGION.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...LOW LEVEL EAST-NORTHEAST JET WILL BE FEEDING
INTO THE MAINE MID-COAST WEDNESDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG SURFACE
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF OUR WATERS. WINDS OF 25-30 KNOTS MAY
EXTEND AS FAR SOUTH AS THE MERRIMACK RIVER AND POSSIBLY CAPE ANN.
WINDS DIMINISH AND BECOME VARIABLE THURSDAY AS THE COASTAL LOW MOVES
ACROSS THE WATERS. SEAS WEDNESDAY REACH 5 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS
WITH 8 TO 10 FEET POSSIBLE FROM CAPE ANN TO MERRIMACK RIVER. BY
THURSDAY THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW WILL EXPAND THE AREA OF 8
TO 10 FOOT SEAS ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE EASTERN WATERS AND SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS.

FRIDAY... AS THE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF TOWARD THE
MARITIMES...WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS.
WITH THE SHIFTING OF THE WIND DIRECTION TO OFFSHORE...WE EXPECT SEAS
TO DIMINISH. BUT 5 FOOT SEAS MAY LINGER ON THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH
THE DAY.

SATURDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ250-254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/FRANK
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...WTB/NOCERA
MARINE...WTB/FRANK




000
FXUS61 KBOX 210610
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
210 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH LINGERING SHOWERS FRIDAY AS THE STORM SLOWLY
PULLS AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND.  MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

2 AM UPDATE...

MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY SEEN ON RADAR AT 2 AM IS NOT REACHING THE
GROUND GIVEN CLOUD BASES AROUND 8-10KFT BENEATH RETURNS ON RADAR
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND. COLUMN WILL TAKE SOMETIME
TO SATURATE...AT LEAST UNTIL SUNRISE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THUS
MAINLY DRY WEATHER INTO THE PREDAWN HOURS WITH AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN
MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND ANOTHER AREA OVER CAPE COD AND
THE ISLANDS.

LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION COMMENCING ACROSS LONG ISLAND/CT
COASTLINE TO BLOCK ISLAND WHERE TEMPS HAVE JUMPED INTO THE LOW 60S
AT 2 AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...

***NARROW AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY ACROSS EASTERN NEW
  ENGLAND***

TUESDAY...

INTERESTING SETUP WITH A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR WEST AND A
SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.  THE INTERACTION OF THE
COLD POOL ALOFT...A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET AND AXIS OF SURFACE
CONVERGENCE MAY LEAD TO SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. INTERESTING THAT THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
ARE SHOWING A NARROW AXIS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN SOMEWHERE NEAR
THE I-95 CORRIDOR. EXACT LOCATION REMAINS UNCERTAIN AND IT COULD
REMAIN OFFSHORE...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH. WE MAY BE DEALING WITH
LOCALIZED NUISANCE POOR DRAINAGE STREET FLOODING IN THIS REGION IF
THIS NARROW AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPS.

FURTHER TO THE WEST ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT BEST FORCING/MOISTURE WILL BE ACROSS
OUR EASTERN ZONES...SO ACTIVITY SHOULD NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD.

AS FOR CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...500 MB TEMPS WILL BE BELOW -20C AND
RESULT IN ELEVATED INSTABILITY.  MODEL SOUNDINGS HAVE BEEN
INDICATING MU CAPES ON THE ORDER OF 500 J/KG. HAVE INCLUDED ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST ACROSS SOME OF THE REGION.  WHILE WE
CAN/T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION...BEST SHOT WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.

HIGH TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S ACROSS THE
REGION.

TUESDAY NIGHT...

APPEARS THAT THE DEEPER MOISTURE/LIFT TEMPORARILY SHIFTS TO THE
NORTH OF OUR REGION AND INTO NORTHER NEW ENGLAND.
NONETHELESS...CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND LOW PRESSURE WILL STILL RESULT IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AT TIMES. THE ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY BE MOST
WIDESPREAD ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES...CLOSER TO THE BETTER
DYNAMICS AND FORCING.  LOW TEMPS WILL ONLY DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S
AND LOWER 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...

CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY MIGRATES
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY AND INTO THE MARITIMES FRIDAY. SHORTWAVE
FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST RACES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES
THIS WEEK AND CROSSES NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THEN
BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEAST USA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HEIGHT CONTOURS ARE
BELOW NORMAL MUCH OF THE WEEK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER
LOW...THEN RECOVER TO NORMAL LEVELS BY SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS.

THIS PATTERN FAVORS A COOL WET MID AND LATE WEEK...THEN DRY AND
SEASONABLE BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE TYPES
OF WEATHER...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING.

THE DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...COASTAL LOW SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL DOMINATE OUR
WEATHER AS IT MOVES UP THE COAST. LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH AND AN
EAST 50-60 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS COASTAL MAINE AND WRAPPING INTO
NH/VT. THIS MAY BRING ENHANCED ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS SOUTHERN NH
AND NORTHERN MASS...WITH WEAKER LIFT FARTHER SOUTH. BY THURSDAY THE
COLD CORE IS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. SO WEDNESDAY IS A TRANSITION FROM
STRATIFORM TO CONVECTIVE...THURSDAY MAINLY CONVECTIVE. SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY BOTH DAYS TO INDICATE A CHANCE OF THUNDER.

FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST.
COLD CORE STILL CLOSE ENOUGH TO PROVIDE CLOUDS AND SOME INSTABILITY.
SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE A DIMINISHING CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

SATURDAY...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH
LATER SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT. THE APPROACH OF THIS FRONT MAY
ACTUALLY BE THE NUDGE THAT GETS THE LAST OF THE COLD POOL CLOUDS OUT
OF OUR AREA. THE FRONT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF CLOUDS. THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS IS LESS DEFINED AND SO WE FEATURE JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN SRN NH AND NRN MASS. TEMPS ALOFT SUPPORT DAYTIME
MAX TEMPS IN THE 60S.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH TEMPS
ALOFT WARMER FROM SUNDAY TO MONDAY. TEMPS ALOFT SUPPORT 60S BOTH
DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

AVERAGE FORECAST CONFIDENCE. BAND OF HEAVIER RAIN SHOULD DEVELOP
OVER CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS AROUND OR AFTER 15Z TODAY...THEN
LIFT NORTH AND PIVOT NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IS LOWER ON EXACT LOCATION AND TIMING OF THIS FEATURE.

THRU 12Z...

VFR WITH LOW RISK OF AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND AND ALSO OVER CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. OTHERWISE
MAINLY DRY WEATHER PREVAILS.

AFTER 12Z...

VFR WITH LIGHT SPOTTY RAIN POSSIBLE WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND OVER
CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. THEN RAIN SHOULD BECOME FOCUSED OVER THE
CAPE AND ISLANDS AFTER 15Z WITH AREAS OF LIGHT/SPOTTY RAIN
ELSEWHERE. VFR WILL LOWER TO MVFR AFTER 15Z ACROSS EASTERN MA AND
POSSIBLE WESTWARD INTO RI. VERY LOW RISK OF ISOLATED THUNDER OVER
THIS AREA.

TONIGHT...

MAIN AREA OF RAIN LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND.
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL BE COMMON ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TERMINALS WITH VFR/MVFR TRENDING TOWARD IFR LATE TONIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...

IFR/MVFR WITH MOST OF THE RAIN CONFINED TO THE INTERIOR. HOWEVER
A NEW AREA OF RAIN SHOULD MOVE ONSHORE TO THE SOUTH COAST LATE IN
THE DAY. E-NE WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY AS WELL.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
EXACT TIMING AND DETAILS.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
EXACT TIMING AND DETAILS.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...PROLONGED PERIOD OF MIXED
MVFR/IFR...WITH MORE IFR IN RAIN WEDNESDAY AND MORE MVFR IN
SHOWERS THURSDAY. CHANCE OF THUNDER BOTH DAYS. CHANCE OF 30 KNOT
EAST-NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS WEDNESDAY MORNING ALONG THE OUTER CAPE
AND MASSACHUSETTS NORTH SHORE AREAS.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...VFR. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS ON
FRIDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN SOUTHERN NH AND EASTERN MASS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

940 PM UPDATE...

ONLY CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST IS TO INCREASE WIND SPEEDS A BIT
OVERNIGHT TO 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT. EARLIER DISCUSSION
BELOW.

==================================================================

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
FURTHER EAST OF THE REGION.  THIS WILL RESULT IN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS.  HOWEVER...WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SCA THRESHOLDS.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE WATERS WILL COMBINED WITH A 1030 MB HIGH
OVER EASTERN CANADA.  EASTERLY WINDS ON TUESDAY WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT
TO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS.
PRETTY MUCH A LOCK THAT SCA SEAS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS OUR EASTERN AND
PARTICULARLY OUR NORTHERN OUTER-WATERS TUE AFTERNOON INTO TUE NIGHT.
IN FACT...BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY SEAS MAY BE APPROACHING 10 FEET
ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN WATERS ALONG WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS.  SCA
HEADLINES POSTED FOR THIS REGION.

WE MAY ALSO SEE SOME 5 FOOT SEAS DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS
TOWARDS 12Z WEDNESDAY...BUT ITS TOO MARGINAL FOR LATE 3RD PERIOD SCA
HEADLINES IN THIS REGION.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...LOW LEVEL EAST-NORTHEAST JET WILL BE FEEDING
INTO THE MAINE MID-COAST WEDNESDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG SURFACE
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF OUR WATERS. WINDS OF 25-30 KNOTS MAY
EXTEND AS FAR SOUTH AS THE MERRIMACK RIVER AND POSSIBLY CAPE ANN.
WINDS DIMINISH AND BECOME VARIABLE THURSDAY AS THE COASTAL LOW MOVES
ACROSS THE WATERS. SEAS WEDNESDAY REACH 5 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS
WITH 8 TO 10 FEET POSSIBLE FROM CAPE ANN TO MERRIMACK RIVER. BY
THURSDAY THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW WILL EXPAND THE AREA OF 8
TO 10 FOOT SEAS ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE EASTERN WATERS AND SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS.

FRIDAY... AS THE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF TOWARD THE
MARITIMES...WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS.
WITH THE SHIFTING OF THE WIND DIRECTION TO OFFSHORE...WE EXPECT SEAS
TO DIMINISH. BUT 5 FOOT SEAS MAY LINGER ON THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH
THE DAY.

SATURDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ250-254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/FRANK
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...WTB/NOCERA
MARINE...WTB/FRANK



000
FXUS61 KALY 210549
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
149 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT. IT WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
WEDNESDAY...AND THEN NORTHEAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY.
A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND INTERMITTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 945 PM EDT...LOW PRESSURE WAS JUST EAST OF GEORGIAN BAY
WITH A STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHING EAST ALONG THE US CANADIAN
BORDER AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY BACK TOWARD THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. CLOUD COVER HAS
BECOME EXTENSIVE ACROSS THE FA WITH MAINLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS. THERE
HAVE BEEN OCCASIONAL RETURNS ON RADAR OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT
MUCH OF THIS IS EVAPORATING BEFORE REACHING THE SFC...OR VIRGA...
ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN AREAS.

IT STILL APPEARS THAT LOW LEVEL DRY AIR AS INDICATED BY THE 00Z
ALY SOUNDING MAY LIMIT MUCH RAINFALL FROM OCCURRING OVERNIGHT...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...WHERE MID LEVELS
HAVE MOISTENED UP A BIT...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE MORE
PERSISTENT. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY OCCUR LATER TONIGHT A BIT
FARTHER S AND E...ESP TOWARD DAYBREAK. WILL GENERALLY KEEP POPS IN
THE 30-50 PERCENT RANGE...EXCEPT FOR SOME LIKELY AND CATEGORICAL
POPS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND CENTRAL AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY.

OVERNIGHT MINS SHOULD BE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT DUE TO CLOUDS AND
WARM ADVECTION. HAVE TRENDED MOST AREAS CLOSER TO THE WARMER MET
MOS...WITH GENERALLY UPPER 30S TO MID 40S EXPECTED...WARMEST WITHIN
THE HUDSON VALLEY REGION...WHERE A LIGHT SOUTH WIND SHOULD PERSIST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DIGGING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL FORM A CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH A SFC LOW
DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST. FOR OUR REGION...ALTHOUGH SOME MID LEVEL
FORCING WILL BE PRESENT...ESP ACROSS WESTERN AREAS...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY BE QUITE LIMITED DURING THIS TIME. SO...IT APPEARS
THAT MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WOULD BE THE BEST WAY TO
DESCRIBE RAINFALL CHANCES DURING TUESDAY...WITH SOME AREAS POSSIBLY
EXPERIENCING SOME LONGER STRETCHES OF DRY WEATHER IN BETWEEN. IN
FACT...ACROSS SOME SOUTHERN AREAS...A FEW BREAKS OF SUN COULD EVEN
OCCUR AT TIMES. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE MORE PERSISTENT ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY...AND EVENTUALLY THE SE
CATSKILLS...WHERE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ARE INDICATED...AND
RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD BE MORE PERSISTENT. FOR TUE NT...AGAIN...OVERALL
AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS MAY NOT BE ALL THAT GREAT...WITH THE MAIN
FORCING DURING THIS TIME REMAINING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND
EVENTUALLY NEW ENGLAND COAST. WILL KEEP CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS...BUT
AGAIN...IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL NOT BE RAINING ALL THE TIME AND IN
ALL AREAS. AS FOR TEMPS...ASSUMING SOME THIN SPOTS IN THE
CLOUDS...AND LIMITED PRECIP OCCUR...HAVE SIDED A BIT CLOSER TO THE
WARMER MET MOS FOR TUE MAXES...WITH GENERALLY 55-60 IN VALLEYS...AND
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. FOR TUE NT...AS LOW
LEVEL WINDS GRADUALLY BACK INTO THE NE IN RESPONSE TO LOWERING
PRESSURES TO OUR SOUTH...TEMPS SHOULD COOL INTO THE LOWER/MID
40S...WITH PERHAPS SOME UPPER 30S POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

WED-THU...MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THE LOW LEVEL
EASTERLY JET WILL INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS
TIME...BEFORE SLOWLY PIVOTING SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD WED NT-THU. THE
NOSE OF THIS LOW LEVEL JET SEEMS TO BE LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND FOR WED AFTN...BEFORE PIVOTING SOUTHWARD TOWARD CENTRAL
NEW ENGLAND LATE WED NT AND THU. LOW LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS LOW LEVEL JET...ALONG WITH STRONGER ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE
295-300 K SURFACES...WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
SHOULD BE MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...AND POSSIBLY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA AND NW CT FOR A TIME WED NT-
THU. ALSO...A SECONDARY MAX IN PRECIP IS LIKELY ACROSS UPSLOPE
AREAS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT
BETWEEN 1-2 INCHES MAY OCCUR IN THESE MORE FAVORABLE AREAS...WITH
GENERALLY 0.50-1 INCH IN THE VALLEYS. IN FACT...IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT STRONG NE DOWNSLOPING WINDS COULD CREATE MORE DRAMATIC RAIN
SHADOWING IN PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...WHERE SOME
AREAS COULD BE AT OR EVEN BELOW THE LOWER END OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED VALLEY RANGES. SO...BANDS OF RAIN ROTATING WEST AND
SOUTHWEST AROUND THE MID LEVEL LOW CENTER WILL BECOME MORE
PROMINENT FOR WED-THU...WITH A PERIOD OF STEADIER RAIN
POSSIBLE...ESP WED NT AND THU AM...AS THE LOW LEVEL JET BRIEFLY
ORIENTS ITSELF TOWARD EASTERN NYS/WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. IT WILL BE
QUITE RAW DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH BRISK N/NE WINDS. IN
FACT...SOME GUSTS OF 35-40 MPH COULD OCCUR AT TIMES ACROSS SOME
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN
MTNS...TACONICS...BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD HILLS LATE WED
AFTERNOON INTO WED NT. MAX TEMPS ON WED SHOULD ONLY REACH THE
LOWER/MID 50S IN VALLEYS...AND 40S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH EVEN COOLER MAXES COULD OCCUR IF STEADIER
RAIN DEVELOPS. THU MAXES SHOULD ONLY REACH 45-50 FOR MOST VALLEY
AREAS AND 40-45 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS FOR WED
NT/THU AM SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER 40S IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THINGS START OFF WET BUT QUICKLY TURN DRY AS LOW PRESSURE EAST OF
CAPE COD HEADS UP THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...DRAWING WET
WEATHER TO A CLOSE FRIDAY NIGHT...AND PROVIDING FOR A PLEASANT LATE
OCTOBER WEEKEND.  A FEW WESTERN ADIRONDACK SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A RAPIDLY
MOVING...THOUGH VERY DRY...COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  BY EARLY MONDAY...THIS FRONT WILL
HAVE MADE IT ALL THE WAY TO SOUTH FLORIDA...BUT THE COLD AIR WILL BE
HARDLY NOTICEABLE DOWN THERE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE IN MOSTLY THE 45 TO 60 DEGREE
RANGE...BUT WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES MILDER FOR THE BALANCE OF THE
EXTENDED.  OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY ABOVE FREEZING AT ALL LOCATIONS...BUT WILL FALL
INTO THE 40S EVERYWHERE.  NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD IN
ALBANY ARE IN THE THE MID TO UPPER 50S...WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO THIS MORNING...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVES INTO THE AREA. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
REST OF THE DAY AND TONIGHT...AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION. WILL MENTION PREVAILING SHOWERS
DURING THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD...ALTHOUGH IT WILL NOT BE RAINING THE
ENTIRE TIME AS BATCHES OF SHOWERS WILL PERIODICALLY MOVE THROUGH.

FLYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN VFR RANGE INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH CIGS ONLY GRADUALLY DECREASING. BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR
CIGS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE AT HIGHER ELEVATION SITE KPSF. BY THIS
EVENING THERE WILL BE A SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE FOR MVFR CONDITIONS
AT THE KALB/KPOU/KGFL TERMINALS WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS CONTINUING.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING NORTH-NORTHEAST AROUND 5
KT BY THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PDS RA.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT...AND INTENSIFY AS IT SHIFTS TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
WEDNESDAY...THEN NORTHEAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY. A
LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND INTERMITTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF SOUTH AND EAST THE REGION. INTERMITTENT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL EXPECTED FOR LATE WED INTO EARLY THU.

WITH THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR...ESP LATE WED INTO EARLY THU. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO
TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA
DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL
WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD OF A FEW DAYS...SO NO WIDESPREAD
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS
THAT THE GREATEST AMTS WOULD BE FAVORED ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...ESP SOUTHERN VT...AND POSSIBLY THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS...WITH LESS AMTS OCCURRING WITHIN THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY DUE TO DOWNSLOPING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/KL
NEAR TERM...GJM/KL/11
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM







000
FXUS61 KALY 210549
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
149 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT. IT WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
WEDNESDAY...AND THEN NORTHEAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY.
A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND INTERMITTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 945 PM EDT...LOW PRESSURE WAS JUST EAST OF GEORGIAN BAY
WITH A STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHING EAST ALONG THE US CANADIAN
BORDER AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY BACK TOWARD THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. CLOUD COVER HAS
BECOME EXTENSIVE ACROSS THE FA WITH MAINLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS. THERE
HAVE BEEN OCCASIONAL RETURNS ON RADAR OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT
MUCH OF THIS IS EVAPORATING BEFORE REACHING THE SFC...OR VIRGA...
ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN AREAS.

IT STILL APPEARS THAT LOW LEVEL DRY AIR AS INDICATED BY THE 00Z
ALY SOUNDING MAY LIMIT MUCH RAINFALL FROM OCCURRING OVERNIGHT...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...WHERE MID LEVELS
HAVE MOISTENED UP A BIT...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE MORE
PERSISTENT. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY OCCUR LATER TONIGHT A BIT
FARTHER S AND E...ESP TOWARD DAYBREAK. WILL GENERALLY KEEP POPS IN
THE 30-50 PERCENT RANGE...EXCEPT FOR SOME LIKELY AND CATEGORICAL
POPS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND CENTRAL AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY.

OVERNIGHT MINS SHOULD BE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT DUE TO CLOUDS AND
WARM ADVECTION. HAVE TRENDED MOST AREAS CLOSER TO THE WARMER MET
MOS...WITH GENERALLY UPPER 30S TO MID 40S EXPECTED...WARMEST WITHIN
THE HUDSON VALLEY REGION...WHERE A LIGHT SOUTH WIND SHOULD PERSIST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DIGGING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL FORM A CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH A SFC LOW
DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST. FOR OUR REGION...ALTHOUGH SOME MID LEVEL
FORCING WILL BE PRESENT...ESP ACROSS WESTERN AREAS...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY BE QUITE LIMITED DURING THIS TIME. SO...IT APPEARS
THAT MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WOULD BE THE BEST WAY TO
DESCRIBE RAINFALL CHANCES DURING TUESDAY...WITH SOME AREAS POSSIBLY
EXPERIENCING SOME LONGER STRETCHES OF DRY WEATHER IN BETWEEN. IN
FACT...ACROSS SOME SOUTHERN AREAS...A FEW BREAKS OF SUN COULD EVEN
OCCUR AT TIMES. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE MORE PERSISTENT ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY...AND EVENTUALLY THE SE
CATSKILLS...WHERE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ARE INDICATED...AND
RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD BE MORE PERSISTENT. FOR TUE NT...AGAIN...OVERALL
AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS MAY NOT BE ALL THAT GREAT...WITH THE MAIN
FORCING DURING THIS TIME REMAINING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND
EVENTUALLY NEW ENGLAND COAST. WILL KEEP CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS...BUT
AGAIN...IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL NOT BE RAINING ALL THE TIME AND IN
ALL AREAS. AS FOR TEMPS...ASSUMING SOME THIN SPOTS IN THE
CLOUDS...AND LIMITED PRECIP OCCUR...HAVE SIDED A BIT CLOSER TO THE
WARMER MET MOS FOR TUE MAXES...WITH GENERALLY 55-60 IN VALLEYS...AND
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. FOR TUE NT...AS LOW
LEVEL WINDS GRADUALLY BACK INTO THE NE IN RESPONSE TO LOWERING
PRESSURES TO OUR SOUTH...TEMPS SHOULD COOL INTO THE LOWER/MID
40S...WITH PERHAPS SOME UPPER 30S POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

WED-THU...MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THE LOW LEVEL
EASTERLY JET WILL INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS
TIME...BEFORE SLOWLY PIVOTING SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD WED NT-THU. THE
NOSE OF THIS LOW LEVEL JET SEEMS TO BE LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND FOR WED AFTN...BEFORE PIVOTING SOUTHWARD TOWARD CENTRAL
NEW ENGLAND LATE WED NT AND THU. LOW LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS LOW LEVEL JET...ALONG WITH STRONGER ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE
295-300 K SURFACES...WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
SHOULD BE MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...AND POSSIBLY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA AND NW CT FOR A TIME WED NT-
THU. ALSO...A SECONDARY MAX IN PRECIP IS LIKELY ACROSS UPSLOPE
AREAS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT
BETWEEN 1-2 INCHES MAY OCCUR IN THESE MORE FAVORABLE AREAS...WITH
GENERALLY 0.50-1 INCH IN THE VALLEYS. IN FACT...IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT STRONG NE DOWNSLOPING WINDS COULD CREATE MORE DRAMATIC RAIN
SHADOWING IN PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...WHERE SOME
AREAS COULD BE AT OR EVEN BELOW THE LOWER END OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED VALLEY RANGES. SO...BANDS OF RAIN ROTATING WEST AND
SOUTHWEST AROUND THE MID LEVEL LOW CENTER WILL BECOME MORE
PROMINENT FOR WED-THU...WITH A PERIOD OF STEADIER RAIN
POSSIBLE...ESP WED NT AND THU AM...AS THE LOW LEVEL JET BRIEFLY
ORIENTS ITSELF TOWARD EASTERN NYS/WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. IT WILL BE
QUITE RAW DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH BRISK N/NE WINDS. IN
FACT...SOME GUSTS OF 35-40 MPH COULD OCCUR AT TIMES ACROSS SOME
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN
MTNS...TACONICS...BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD HILLS LATE WED
AFTERNOON INTO WED NT. MAX TEMPS ON WED SHOULD ONLY REACH THE
LOWER/MID 50S IN VALLEYS...AND 40S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH EVEN COOLER MAXES COULD OCCUR IF STEADIER
RAIN DEVELOPS. THU MAXES SHOULD ONLY REACH 45-50 FOR MOST VALLEY
AREAS AND 40-45 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS FOR WED
NT/THU AM SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER 40S IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THINGS START OFF WET BUT QUICKLY TURN DRY AS LOW PRESSURE EAST OF
CAPE COD HEADS UP THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...DRAWING WET
WEATHER TO A CLOSE FRIDAY NIGHT...AND PROVIDING FOR A PLEASANT LATE
OCTOBER WEEKEND.  A FEW WESTERN ADIRONDACK SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A RAPIDLY
MOVING...THOUGH VERY DRY...COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  BY EARLY MONDAY...THIS FRONT WILL
HAVE MADE IT ALL THE WAY TO SOUTH FLORIDA...BUT THE COLD AIR WILL BE
HARDLY NOTICEABLE DOWN THERE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE IN MOSTLY THE 45 TO 60 DEGREE
RANGE...BUT WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES MILDER FOR THE BALANCE OF THE
EXTENDED.  OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY ABOVE FREEZING AT ALL LOCATIONS...BUT WILL FALL
INTO THE 40S EVERYWHERE.  NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD IN
ALBANY ARE IN THE THE MID TO UPPER 50S...WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO THIS MORNING...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVES INTO THE AREA. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
REST OF THE DAY AND TONIGHT...AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION. WILL MENTION PREVAILING SHOWERS
DURING THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD...ALTHOUGH IT WILL NOT BE RAINING THE
ENTIRE TIME AS BATCHES OF SHOWERS WILL PERIODICALLY MOVE THROUGH.

FLYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN VFR RANGE INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH CIGS ONLY GRADUALLY DECREASING. BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR
CIGS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE AT HIGHER ELEVATION SITE KPSF. BY THIS
EVENING THERE WILL BE A SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE FOR MVFR CONDITIONS
AT THE KALB/KPOU/KGFL TERMINALS WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS CONTINUING.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING NORTH-NORTHEAST AROUND 5
KT BY THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PDS RA.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT...AND INTENSIFY AS IT SHIFTS TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
WEDNESDAY...THEN NORTHEAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY. A
LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND INTERMITTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF SOUTH AND EAST THE REGION. INTERMITTENT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL EXPECTED FOR LATE WED INTO EARLY THU.

WITH THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR...ESP LATE WED INTO EARLY THU. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO
TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA
DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL
WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD OF A FEW DAYS...SO NO WIDESPREAD
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS
THAT THE GREATEST AMTS WOULD BE FAVORED ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...ESP SOUTHERN VT...AND POSSIBLY THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS...WITH LESS AMTS OCCURRING WITHIN THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY DUE TO DOWNSLOPING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/KL
NEAR TERM...GJM/KL/11
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM







000
FXUS61 KALY 210549
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
149 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT. IT WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
WEDNESDAY...AND THEN NORTHEAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY.
A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND INTERMITTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 945 PM EDT...LOW PRESSURE WAS JUST EAST OF GEORGIAN BAY
WITH A STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHING EAST ALONG THE US CANADIAN
BORDER AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY BACK TOWARD THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. CLOUD COVER HAS
BECOME EXTENSIVE ACROSS THE FA WITH MAINLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS. THERE
HAVE BEEN OCCASIONAL RETURNS ON RADAR OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT
MUCH OF THIS IS EVAPORATING BEFORE REACHING THE SFC...OR VIRGA...
ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN AREAS.

IT STILL APPEARS THAT LOW LEVEL DRY AIR AS INDICATED BY THE 00Z
ALY SOUNDING MAY LIMIT MUCH RAINFALL FROM OCCURRING OVERNIGHT...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...WHERE MID LEVELS
HAVE MOISTENED UP A BIT...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE MORE
PERSISTENT. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY OCCUR LATER TONIGHT A BIT
FARTHER S AND E...ESP TOWARD DAYBREAK. WILL GENERALLY KEEP POPS IN
THE 30-50 PERCENT RANGE...EXCEPT FOR SOME LIKELY AND CATEGORICAL
POPS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND CENTRAL AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY.

OVERNIGHT MINS SHOULD BE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT DUE TO CLOUDS AND
WARM ADVECTION. HAVE TRENDED MOST AREAS CLOSER TO THE WARMER MET
MOS...WITH GENERALLY UPPER 30S TO MID 40S EXPECTED...WARMEST WITHIN
THE HUDSON VALLEY REGION...WHERE A LIGHT SOUTH WIND SHOULD PERSIST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DIGGING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL FORM A CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH A SFC LOW
DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST. FOR OUR REGION...ALTHOUGH SOME MID LEVEL
FORCING WILL BE PRESENT...ESP ACROSS WESTERN AREAS...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY BE QUITE LIMITED DURING THIS TIME. SO...IT APPEARS
THAT MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WOULD BE THE BEST WAY TO
DESCRIBE RAINFALL CHANCES DURING TUESDAY...WITH SOME AREAS POSSIBLY
EXPERIENCING SOME LONGER STRETCHES OF DRY WEATHER IN BETWEEN. IN
FACT...ACROSS SOME SOUTHERN AREAS...A FEW BREAKS OF SUN COULD EVEN
OCCUR AT TIMES. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE MORE PERSISTENT ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY...AND EVENTUALLY THE SE
CATSKILLS...WHERE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ARE INDICATED...AND
RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD BE MORE PERSISTENT. FOR TUE NT...AGAIN...OVERALL
AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS MAY NOT BE ALL THAT GREAT...WITH THE MAIN
FORCING DURING THIS TIME REMAINING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND
EVENTUALLY NEW ENGLAND COAST. WILL KEEP CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS...BUT
AGAIN...IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL NOT BE RAINING ALL THE TIME AND IN
ALL AREAS. AS FOR TEMPS...ASSUMING SOME THIN SPOTS IN THE
CLOUDS...AND LIMITED PRECIP OCCUR...HAVE SIDED A BIT CLOSER TO THE
WARMER MET MOS FOR TUE MAXES...WITH GENERALLY 55-60 IN VALLEYS...AND
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. FOR TUE NT...AS LOW
LEVEL WINDS GRADUALLY BACK INTO THE NE IN RESPONSE TO LOWERING
PRESSURES TO OUR SOUTH...TEMPS SHOULD COOL INTO THE LOWER/MID
40S...WITH PERHAPS SOME UPPER 30S POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

WED-THU...MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THE LOW LEVEL
EASTERLY JET WILL INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS
TIME...BEFORE SLOWLY PIVOTING SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD WED NT-THU. THE
NOSE OF THIS LOW LEVEL JET SEEMS TO BE LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND FOR WED AFTN...BEFORE PIVOTING SOUTHWARD TOWARD CENTRAL
NEW ENGLAND LATE WED NT AND THU. LOW LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS LOW LEVEL JET...ALONG WITH STRONGER ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE
295-300 K SURFACES...WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
SHOULD BE MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...AND POSSIBLY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA AND NW CT FOR A TIME WED NT-
THU. ALSO...A SECONDARY MAX IN PRECIP IS LIKELY ACROSS UPSLOPE
AREAS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT
BETWEEN 1-2 INCHES MAY OCCUR IN THESE MORE FAVORABLE AREAS...WITH
GENERALLY 0.50-1 INCH IN THE VALLEYS. IN FACT...IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT STRONG NE DOWNSLOPING WINDS COULD CREATE MORE DRAMATIC RAIN
SHADOWING IN PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...WHERE SOME
AREAS COULD BE AT OR EVEN BELOW THE LOWER END OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED VALLEY RANGES. SO...BANDS OF RAIN ROTATING WEST AND
SOUTHWEST AROUND THE MID LEVEL LOW CENTER WILL BECOME MORE
PROMINENT FOR WED-THU...WITH A PERIOD OF STEADIER RAIN
POSSIBLE...ESP WED NT AND THU AM...AS THE LOW LEVEL JET BRIEFLY
ORIENTS ITSELF TOWARD EASTERN NYS/WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. IT WILL BE
QUITE RAW DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH BRISK N/NE WINDS. IN
FACT...SOME GUSTS OF 35-40 MPH COULD OCCUR AT TIMES ACROSS SOME
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN
MTNS...TACONICS...BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD HILLS LATE WED
AFTERNOON INTO WED NT. MAX TEMPS ON WED SHOULD ONLY REACH THE
LOWER/MID 50S IN VALLEYS...AND 40S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH EVEN COOLER MAXES COULD OCCUR IF STEADIER
RAIN DEVELOPS. THU MAXES SHOULD ONLY REACH 45-50 FOR MOST VALLEY
AREAS AND 40-45 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS FOR WED
NT/THU AM SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER 40S IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THINGS START OFF WET BUT QUICKLY TURN DRY AS LOW PRESSURE EAST OF
CAPE COD HEADS UP THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...DRAWING WET
WEATHER TO A CLOSE FRIDAY NIGHT...AND PROVIDING FOR A PLEASANT LATE
OCTOBER WEEKEND.  A FEW WESTERN ADIRONDACK SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A RAPIDLY
MOVING...THOUGH VERY DRY...COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  BY EARLY MONDAY...THIS FRONT WILL
HAVE MADE IT ALL THE WAY TO SOUTH FLORIDA...BUT THE COLD AIR WILL BE
HARDLY NOTICEABLE DOWN THERE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE IN MOSTLY THE 45 TO 60 DEGREE
RANGE...BUT WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES MILDER FOR THE BALANCE OF THE
EXTENDED.  OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY ABOVE FREEZING AT ALL LOCATIONS...BUT WILL FALL
INTO THE 40S EVERYWHERE.  NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD IN
ALBANY ARE IN THE THE MID TO UPPER 50S...WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO THIS MORNING...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVES INTO THE AREA. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
REST OF THE DAY AND TONIGHT...AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION. WILL MENTION PREVAILING SHOWERS
DURING THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD...ALTHOUGH IT WILL NOT BE RAINING THE
ENTIRE TIME AS BATCHES OF SHOWERS WILL PERIODICALLY MOVE THROUGH.

FLYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN VFR RANGE INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH CIGS ONLY GRADUALLY DECREASING. BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR
CIGS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE AT HIGHER ELEVATION SITE KPSF. BY THIS
EVENING THERE WILL BE A SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE FOR MVFR CONDITIONS
AT THE KALB/KPOU/KGFL TERMINALS WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS CONTINUING.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING NORTH-NORTHEAST AROUND 5
KT BY THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PDS RA.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT...AND INTENSIFY AS IT SHIFTS TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
WEDNESDAY...THEN NORTHEAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY. A
LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND INTERMITTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF SOUTH AND EAST THE REGION. INTERMITTENT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL EXPECTED FOR LATE WED INTO EARLY THU.

WITH THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR...ESP LATE WED INTO EARLY THU. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO
TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA
DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL
WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD OF A FEW DAYS...SO NO WIDESPREAD
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS
THAT THE GREATEST AMTS WOULD BE FAVORED ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...ESP SOUTHERN VT...AND POSSIBLY THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS...WITH LESS AMTS OCCURRING WITHIN THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY DUE TO DOWNSLOPING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/KL
NEAR TERM...GJM/KL/11
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM







000
FXUS61 KALY 210549
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
149 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT. IT WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
WEDNESDAY...AND THEN NORTHEAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY.
A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND INTERMITTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 945 PM EDT...LOW PRESSURE WAS JUST EAST OF GEORGIAN BAY
WITH A STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHING EAST ALONG THE US CANADIAN
BORDER AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY BACK TOWARD THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. CLOUD COVER HAS
BECOME EXTENSIVE ACROSS THE FA WITH MAINLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS. THERE
HAVE BEEN OCCASIONAL RETURNS ON RADAR OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT
MUCH OF THIS IS EVAPORATING BEFORE REACHING THE SFC...OR VIRGA...
ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN AREAS.

IT STILL APPEARS THAT LOW LEVEL DRY AIR AS INDICATED BY THE 00Z
ALY SOUNDING MAY LIMIT MUCH RAINFALL FROM OCCURRING OVERNIGHT...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...WHERE MID LEVELS
HAVE MOISTENED UP A BIT...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE MORE
PERSISTENT. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY OCCUR LATER TONIGHT A BIT
FARTHER S AND E...ESP TOWARD DAYBREAK. WILL GENERALLY KEEP POPS IN
THE 30-50 PERCENT RANGE...EXCEPT FOR SOME LIKELY AND CATEGORICAL
POPS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND CENTRAL AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY.

OVERNIGHT MINS SHOULD BE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT DUE TO CLOUDS AND
WARM ADVECTION. HAVE TRENDED MOST AREAS CLOSER TO THE WARMER MET
MOS...WITH GENERALLY UPPER 30S TO MID 40S EXPECTED...WARMEST WITHIN
THE HUDSON VALLEY REGION...WHERE A LIGHT SOUTH WIND SHOULD PERSIST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DIGGING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL FORM A CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH A SFC LOW
DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST. FOR OUR REGION...ALTHOUGH SOME MID LEVEL
FORCING WILL BE PRESENT...ESP ACROSS WESTERN AREAS...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY BE QUITE LIMITED DURING THIS TIME. SO...IT APPEARS
THAT MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WOULD BE THE BEST WAY TO
DESCRIBE RAINFALL CHANCES DURING TUESDAY...WITH SOME AREAS POSSIBLY
EXPERIENCING SOME LONGER STRETCHES OF DRY WEATHER IN BETWEEN. IN
FACT...ACROSS SOME SOUTHERN AREAS...A FEW BREAKS OF SUN COULD EVEN
OCCUR AT TIMES. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE MORE PERSISTENT ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY...AND EVENTUALLY THE SE
CATSKILLS...WHERE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ARE INDICATED...AND
RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD BE MORE PERSISTENT. FOR TUE NT...AGAIN...OVERALL
AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS MAY NOT BE ALL THAT GREAT...WITH THE MAIN
FORCING DURING THIS TIME REMAINING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND
EVENTUALLY NEW ENGLAND COAST. WILL KEEP CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS...BUT
AGAIN...IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL NOT BE RAINING ALL THE TIME AND IN
ALL AREAS. AS FOR TEMPS...ASSUMING SOME THIN SPOTS IN THE
CLOUDS...AND LIMITED PRECIP OCCUR...HAVE SIDED A BIT CLOSER TO THE
WARMER MET MOS FOR TUE MAXES...WITH GENERALLY 55-60 IN VALLEYS...AND
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. FOR TUE NT...AS LOW
LEVEL WINDS GRADUALLY BACK INTO THE NE IN RESPONSE TO LOWERING
PRESSURES TO OUR SOUTH...TEMPS SHOULD COOL INTO THE LOWER/MID
40S...WITH PERHAPS SOME UPPER 30S POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

WED-THU...MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THE LOW LEVEL
EASTERLY JET WILL INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS
TIME...BEFORE SLOWLY PIVOTING SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD WED NT-THU. THE
NOSE OF THIS LOW LEVEL JET SEEMS TO BE LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND FOR WED AFTN...BEFORE PIVOTING SOUTHWARD TOWARD CENTRAL
NEW ENGLAND LATE WED NT AND THU. LOW LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS LOW LEVEL JET...ALONG WITH STRONGER ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE
295-300 K SURFACES...WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
SHOULD BE MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...AND POSSIBLY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA AND NW CT FOR A TIME WED NT-
THU. ALSO...A SECONDARY MAX IN PRECIP IS LIKELY ACROSS UPSLOPE
AREAS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT
BETWEEN 1-2 INCHES MAY OCCUR IN THESE MORE FAVORABLE AREAS...WITH
GENERALLY 0.50-1 INCH IN THE VALLEYS. IN FACT...IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT STRONG NE DOWNSLOPING WINDS COULD CREATE MORE DRAMATIC RAIN
SHADOWING IN PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...WHERE SOME
AREAS COULD BE AT OR EVEN BELOW THE LOWER END OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED VALLEY RANGES. SO...BANDS OF RAIN ROTATING WEST AND
SOUTHWEST AROUND THE MID LEVEL LOW CENTER WILL BECOME MORE
PROMINENT FOR WED-THU...WITH A PERIOD OF STEADIER RAIN
POSSIBLE...ESP WED NT AND THU AM...AS THE LOW LEVEL JET BRIEFLY
ORIENTS ITSELF TOWARD EASTERN NYS/WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. IT WILL BE
QUITE RAW DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH BRISK N/NE WINDS. IN
FACT...SOME GUSTS OF 35-40 MPH COULD OCCUR AT TIMES ACROSS SOME
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN
MTNS...TACONICS...BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD HILLS LATE WED
AFTERNOON INTO WED NT. MAX TEMPS ON WED SHOULD ONLY REACH THE
LOWER/MID 50S IN VALLEYS...AND 40S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH EVEN COOLER MAXES COULD OCCUR IF STEADIER
RAIN DEVELOPS. THU MAXES SHOULD ONLY REACH 45-50 FOR MOST VALLEY
AREAS AND 40-45 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS FOR WED
NT/THU AM SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER 40S IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THINGS START OFF WET BUT QUICKLY TURN DRY AS LOW PRESSURE EAST OF
CAPE COD HEADS UP THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...DRAWING WET
WEATHER TO A CLOSE FRIDAY NIGHT...AND PROVIDING FOR A PLEASANT LATE
OCTOBER WEEKEND.  A FEW WESTERN ADIRONDACK SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A RAPIDLY
MOVING...THOUGH VERY DRY...COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  BY EARLY MONDAY...THIS FRONT WILL
HAVE MADE IT ALL THE WAY TO SOUTH FLORIDA...BUT THE COLD AIR WILL BE
HARDLY NOTICEABLE DOWN THERE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE IN MOSTLY THE 45 TO 60 DEGREE
RANGE...BUT WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES MILDER FOR THE BALANCE OF THE
EXTENDED.  OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY ABOVE FREEZING AT ALL LOCATIONS...BUT WILL FALL
INTO THE 40S EVERYWHERE.  NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD IN
ALBANY ARE IN THE THE MID TO UPPER 50S...WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO THIS MORNING...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVES INTO THE AREA. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
REST OF THE DAY AND TONIGHT...AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION. WILL MENTION PREVAILING SHOWERS
DURING THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD...ALTHOUGH IT WILL NOT BE RAINING THE
ENTIRE TIME AS BATCHES OF SHOWERS WILL PERIODICALLY MOVE THROUGH.

FLYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN VFR RANGE INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH CIGS ONLY GRADUALLY DECREASING. BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR
CIGS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE AT HIGHER ELEVATION SITE KPSF. BY THIS
EVENING THERE WILL BE A SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE FOR MVFR CONDITIONS
AT THE KALB/KPOU/KGFL TERMINALS WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS CONTINUING.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING NORTH-NORTHEAST AROUND 5
KT BY THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PDS RA.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT...AND INTENSIFY AS IT SHIFTS TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
WEDNESDAY...THEN NORTHEAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY. A
LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND INTERMITTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF SOUTH AND EAST THE REGION. INTERMITTENT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL EXPECTED FOR LATE WED INTO EARLY THU.

WITH THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR...ESP LATE WED INTO EARLY THU. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO
TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA
DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL
WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD OF A FEW DAYS...SO NO WIDESPREAD
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS
THAT THE GREATEST AMTS WOULD BE FAVORED ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...ESP SOUTHERN VT...AND POSSIBLY THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS...WITH LESS AMTS OCCURRING WITHIN THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY DUE TO DOWNSLOPING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/KL
NEAR TERM...GJM/KL/11
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM







000
FXUS61 KALY 210531
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
130 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT. IT WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
WEDNESDAY...AND THEN NORTHEAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY.
A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND INTERMITTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 945 PM EDT...LOW PRESSURE WAS JUST EAST OF GEORGIAN BAY
WITH A STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHING EAST ALONG THE US CANADIAN
BORDER AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY BACK TOWARD THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. CLOUD COVER HAS
BECOME EXTENSIVE ACROSS THE FA WITH MAINLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS. THERE
HAVE BEEN OCCASIONAL RETURNS ON RADAR OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT
MUCH OF THIS IS EVAPORATING BEFORE REACHING THE SFC...OR VIRGA...
ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN AREAS.

IT STILL APPEARS THAT LOW LEVEL DRY AIR AS INDICATED BY THE 00Z
ALY SOUNDING MAY LIMIT MUCH RAINFALL FROM OCCURRING OVERNIGHT...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...WHERE MID LEVELS
HAVE MOISTENED UP A BIT...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE MORE
PERSISTENT. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY OCCUR LATER TONIGHT A BIT
FARTHER S AND E...ESP TOWARD DAYBREAK. WILL GENERALLY KEEP POPS IN
THE 30-50 PERCENT RANGE...EXCEPT FOR SOME LIKELY AND CATEGORICAL
POPS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND CENTRAL AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY.

OVERNIGHT MINS SHOULD BE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT DUE TO CLOUDS AND
WARM ADVECTION. HAVE TRENDED MOST AREAS CLOSER TO THE WARMER MET
MOS...WITH GENERALLY UPPER 30S TO MID 40S EXPECTED...WARMEST WITHIN
THE HUDSON VALLEY REGION...WHERE A LIGHT SOUTH WIND SHOULD PERSIST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DIGGING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL FORM A CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH A SFC LOW
DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST. FOR OUR REGION...ALTHOUGH SOME MID LEVEL
FORCING WILL BE PRESENT...ESP ACROSS WESTERN AREAS...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY BE QUITE LIMITED DURING THIS TIME. SO...IT APPEARS
THAT MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WOULD BE THE BEST WAY TO
DESCRIBE RAINFALL CHANCES DURING TUESDAY...WITH SOME AREAS POSSIBLY
EXPERIENCING SOME LONGER STRETCHES OF DRY WEATHER IN BETWEEN. IN
FACT...ACROSS SOME SOUTHERN AREAS...A FEW BREAKS OF SUN COULD EVEN
OCCUR AT TIMES. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE MORE PERSISTENT ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY...AND EVENTUALLY THE SE
CATSKILLS...WHERE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ARE INDICATED...AND
RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD BE MORE PERSISTENT. FOR TUE NT...AGAIN...OVERALL
AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS MAY NOT BE ALL THAT GREAT...WITH THE MAIN
FORCING DURING THIS TIME REMAINING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND
EVENTUALLY NEW ENGLAND COAST. WILL KEEP CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS...BUT
AGAIN...IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL NOT BE RAINING ALL THE TIME AND IN
ALL AREAS. AS FOR TEMPS...ASSUMING SOME THIN SPOTS IN THE
CLOUDS...AND LIMITED PRECIP OCCUR...HAVE SIDED A BIT CLOSER TO THE
WARMER MET MOS FOR TUE MAXES...WITH GENERALLY 55-60 IN VALLEYS...AND
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. FOR TUE NT...AS LOW
LEVEL WINDS GRADUALLY BACK INTO THE NE IN RESPONSE TO LOWERING
PRESSURES TO OUR SOUTH...TEMPS SHOULD COOL INTO THE LOWER/MID
40S...WITH PERHAPS SOME UPPER 30S POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

WED-THU...MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THE LOW LEVEL
EASTERLY JET WILL INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS
TIME...BEFORE SLOWLY PIVOTING SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD WED NT-THU. THE
NOSE OF THIS LOW LEVEL JET SEEMS TO BE LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND FOR WED AFTN...BEFORE PIVOTING SOUTHWARD TOWARD CENTRAL
NEW ENGLAND LATE WED NT AND THU. LOW LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS LOW LEVEL JET...ALONG WITH STRONGER ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE
295-300 K SURFACES...WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
SHOULD BE MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...AND POSSIBLY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA AND NW CT FOR A TIME WED NT-
THU. ALSO...A SECONDARY MAX IN PRECIP IS LIKELY ACROSS UPSLOPE
AREAS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT
BETWEEN 1-2 INCHES MAY OCCUR IN THESE MORE FAVORABLE AREAS...WITH
GENERALLY 0.50-1 INCH IN THE VALLEYS. IN FACT...IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT STRONG NE DOWNSLOPING WINDS COULD CREATE MORE DRAMATIC RAIN
SHADOWING IN PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...WHERE SOME
AREAS COULD BE AT OR EVEN BELOW THE LOWER END OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED VALLEY RANGES. SO...BANDS OF RAIN ROTATING WEST AND
SOUTHWEST AROUND THE MID LEVEL LOW CENTER WILL BECOME MORE
PROMINENT FOR WED-THU...WITH A PERIOD OF STEADIER RAIN
POSSIBLE...ESP WED NT AND THU AM...AS THE LOW LEVEL JET BRIEFLY
ORIENTS ITSELF TOWARD EASTERN NYS/WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. IT WILL BE
QUITE RAW DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH BRISK N/NE WINDS. IN
FACT...SOME GUSTS OF 35-40 MPH COULD OCCUR AT TIMES ACROSS SOME
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN
MTNS...TACONICS...BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD HILLS LATE WED
AFTERNOON INTO WED NT. MAX TEMPS ON WED SHOULD ONLY REACH THE
LOWER/MID 50S IN VALLEYS...AND 40S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH EVEN COOLER MAXES COULD OCCUR IF STEADIER
RAIN DEVELOPS. THU MAXES SHOULD ONLY REACH 45-50 FOR MOST VALLEY
AREAS AND 40-45 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS FOR WED
NT/THU AM SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER 40S IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THINGS START OFF WET BUT QUICKLY TURN DRY AS LOW PRESSURE EAST OF
CAPE COD HEADS UP THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...DRAWING WET
WEATHER TO A CLOSE FRIDAY NIGHT...AND PROVIDING FOR A PLEASANT LATE
OCTOBER WEEKEND.  A FEW WESTERN ADIRONDACK SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A RAPIDLY
MOVING...THOUGH VERY DRY...COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  BY EARLY MONDAY...THIS FRONT WILL
HAVE MADE IT ALL THE WAY TO SOUTH FLORIDA...BUT THE COLD AIR WILL BE
HARDLY NOTICEABLE DOWN THERE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE IN MOSTLY THE 45 TO 60 DEGREE
RANGE...BUT WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES MILDER FOR THE BALANCE OF THE
EXTENDED.  OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY ABOVE FREEZING AT ALL LOCATIONS...BUT WILL FALL
INTO THE 40S EVERYWHERE.  NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD IN
ALBANY ARE IN THE THE MID TO UPPER 50S...WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD
ENDING 00Z WEDNESDAY. HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE OVERSPREAD
THE REGION AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE
GREAT LAKES. CEILING HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY
THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND SHOULD LOWER OVERNIGHT BUT REMAIN IN
VFR RANGE AS THE TROUGH MOVES IN. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 12Z...SO WILL MENTION VCSH AT ALL
TERMINALS. THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF SOME SHOWERS AFFECTING ALL
TAF SITES AFT 18Z SO HAVE PLACED 6SM -SHRA IN THE TAFS AFTER
THIS TIME.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO NEAR CALM TONIGHT...THEN VARIABLE AT 3KT
OR LESS TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PDS RA.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT...AND INTENSIFY AS IT SHIFTS TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
WEDNESDAY...THEN NORTHEAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY. A
LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND INTERMITTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF SOUTH AND EAST THE REGION. INTERMITTENT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL EXPECTED FOR LATE WED INTO EARLY THU.

WITH THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR...ESP LATE WED INTO EARLY THU. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO
TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA
DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL
WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD OF A FEW DAYS...SO NO WIDESPREAD
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS
THAT THE GREATEST AMTS WOULD BE FAVORED ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...ESP SOUTHERN VT...AND POSSIBLY THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS...WITH LESS AMTS OCCURRING WITHIN THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY DUE TO DOWNSLOPING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/KL
NEAR TERM...GJM/KL/11
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...11/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM











000
FXUS61 KALY 210531
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
130 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT. IT WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
WEDNESDAY...AND THEN NORTHEAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY.
A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND INTERMITTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 945 PM EDT...LOW PRESSURE WAS JUST EAST OF GEORGIAN BAY
WITH A STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHING EAST ALONG THE US CANADIAN
BORDER AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY BACK TOWARD THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. CLOUD COVER HAS
BECOME EXTENSIVE ACROSS THE FA WITH MAINLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS. THERE
HAVE BEEN OCCASIONAL RETURNS ON RADAR OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT
MUCH OF THIS IS EVAPORATING BEFORE REACHING THE SFC...OR VIRGA...
ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN AREAS.

IT STILL APPEARS THAT LOW LEVEL DRY AIR AS INDICATED BY THE 00Z
ALY SOUNDING MAY LIMIT MUCH RAINFALL FROM OCCURRING OVERNIGHT...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...WHERE MID LEVELS
HAVE MOISTENED UP A BIT...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE MORE
PERSISTENT. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY OCCUR LATER TONIGHT A BIT
FARTHER S AND E...ESP TOWARD DAYBREAK. WILL GENERALLY KEEP POPS IN
THE 30-50 PERCENT RANGE...EXCEPT FOR SOME LIKELY AND CATEGORICAL
POPS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND CENTRAL AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY.

OVERNIGHT MINS SHOULD BE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT DUE TO CLOUDS AND
WARM ADVECTION. HAVE TRENDED MOST AREAS CLOSER TO THE WARMER MET
MOS...WITH GENERALLY UPPER 30S TO MID 40S EXPECTED...WARMEST WITHIN
THE HUDSON VALLEY REGION...WHERE A LIGHT SOUTH WIND SHOULD PERSIST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DIGGING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL FORM A CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH A SFC LOW
DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST. FOR OUR REGION...ALTHOUGH SOME MID LEVEL
FORCING WILL BE PRESENT...ESP ACROSS WESTERN AREAS...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY BE QUITE LIMITED DURING THIS TIME. SO...IT APPEARS
THAT MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WOULD BE THE BEST WAY TO
DESCRIBE RAINFALL CHANCES DURING TUESDAY...WITH SOME AREAS POSSIBLY
EXPERIENCING SOME LONGER STRETCHES OF DRY WEATHER IN BETWEEN. IN
FACT...ACROSS SOME SOUTHERN AREAS...A FEW BREAKS OF SUN COULD EVEN
OCCUR AT TIMES. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE MORE PERSISTENT ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY...AND EVENTUALLY THE SE
CATSKILLS...WHERE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ARE INDICATED...AND
RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD BE MORE PERSISTENT. FOR TUE NT...AGAIN...OVERALL
AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS MAY NOT BE ALL THAT GREAT...WITH THE MAIN
FORCING DURING THIS TIME REMAINING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND
EVENTUALLY NEW ENGLAND COAST. WILL KEEP CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS...BUT
AGAIN...IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL NOT BE RAINING ALL THE TIME AND IN
ALL AREAS. AS FOR TEMPS...ASSUMING SOME THIN SPOTS IN THE
CLOUDS...AND LIMITED PRECIP OCCUR...HAVE SIDED A BIT CLOSER TO THE
WARMER MET MOS FOR TUE MAXES...WITH GENERALLY 55-60 IN VALLEYS...AND
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. FOR TUE NT...AS LOW
LEVEL WINDS GRADUALLY BACK INTO THE NE IN RESPONSE TO LOWERING
PRESSURES TO OUR SOUTH...TEMPS SHOULD COOL INTO THE LOWER/MID
40S...WITH PERHAPS SOME UPPER 30S POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

WED-THU...MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THE LOW LEVEL
EASTERLY JET WILL INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS
TIME...BEFORE SLOWLY PIVOTING SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD WED NT-THU. THE
NOSE OF THIS LOW LEVEL JET SEEMS TO BE LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND FOR WED AFTN...BEFORE PIVOTING SOUTHWARD TOWARD CENTRAL
NEW ENGLAND LATE WED NT AND THU. LOW LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS LOW LEVEL JET...ALONG WITH STRONGER ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE
295-300 K SURFACES...WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
SHOULD BE MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...AND POSSIBLY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA AND NW CT FOR A TIME WED NT-
THU. ALSO...A SECONDARY MAX IN PRECIP IS LIKELY ACROSS UPSLOPE
AREAS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT
BETWEEN 1-2 INCHES MAY OCCUR IN THESE MORE FAVORABLE AREAS...WITH
GENERALLY 0.50-1 INCH IN THE VALLEYS. IN FACT...IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT STRONG NE DOWNSLOPING WINDS COULD CREATE MORE DRAMATIC RAIN
SHADOWING IN PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...WHERE SOME
AREAS COULD BE AT OR EVEN BELOW THE LOWER END OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED VALLEY RANGES. SO...BANDS OF RAIN ROTATING WEST AND
SOUTHWEST AROUND THE MID LEVEL LOW CENTER WILL BECOME MORE
PROMINENT FOR WED-THU...WITH A PERIOD OF STEADIER RAIN
POSSIBLE...ESP WED NT AND THU AM...AS THE LOW LEVEL JET BRIEFLY
ORIENTS ITSELF TOWARD EASTERN NYS/WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. IT WILL BE
QUITE RAW DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH BRISK N/NE WINDS. IN
FACT...SOME GUSTS OF 35-40 MPH COULD OCCUR AT TIMES ACROSS SOME
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN
MTNS...TACONICS...BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD HILLS LATE WED
AFTERNOON INTO WED NT. MAX TEMPS ON WED SHOULD ONLY REACH THE
LOWER/MID 50S IN VALLEYS...AND 40S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH EVEN COOLER MAXES COULD OCCUR IF STEADIER
RAIN DEVELOPS. THU MAXES SHOULD ONLY REACH 45-50 FOR MOST VALLEY
AREAS AND 40-45 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS FOR WED
NT/THU AM SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER 40S IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THINGS START OFF WET BUT QUICKLY TURN DRY AS LOW PRESSURE EAST OF
CAPE COD HEADS UP THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...DRAWING WET
WEATHER TO A CLOSE FRIDAY NIGHT...AND PROVIDING FOR A PLEASANT LATE
OCTOBER WEEKEND.  A FEW WESTERN ADIRONDACK SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A RAPIDLY
MOVING...THOUGH VERY DRY...COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  BY EARLY MONDAY...THIS FRONT WILL
HAVE MADE IT ALL THE WAY TO SOUTH FLORIDA...BUT THE COLD AIR WILL BE
HARDLY NOTICEABLE DOWN THERE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE IN MOSTLY THE 45 TO 60 DEGREE
RANGE...BUT WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES MILDER FOR THE BALANCE OF THE
EXTENDED.  OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY ABOVE FREEZING AT ALL LOCATIONS...BUT WILL FALL
INTO THE 40S EVERYWHERE.  NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD IN
ALBANY ARE IN THE THE MID TO UPPER 50S...WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD
ENDING 00Z WEDNESDAY. HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE OVERSPREAD
THE REGION AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE
GREAT LAKES. CEILING HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY
THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND SHOULD LOWER OVERNIGHT BUT REMAIN IN
VFR RANGE AS THE TROUGH MOVES IN. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 12Z...SO WILL MENTION VCSH AT ALL
TERMINALS. THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF SOME SHOWERS AFFECTING ALL
TAF SITES AFT 18Z SO HAVE PLACED 6SM -SHRA IN THE TAFS AFTER
THIS TIME.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO NEAR CALM TONIGHT...THEN VARIABLE AT 3KT
OR LESS TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PDS RA.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT...AND INTENSIFY AS IT SHIFTS TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
WEDNESDAY...THEN NORTHEAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY. A
LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND INTERMITTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF SOUTH AND EAST THE REGION. INTERMITTENT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL EXPECTED FOR LATE WED INTO EARLY THU.

WITH THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR...ESP LATE WED INTO EARLY THU. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO
TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA
DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL
WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD OF A FEW DAYS...SO NO WIDESPREAD
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS
THAT THE GREATEST AMTS WOULD BE FAVORED ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...ESP SOUTHERN VT...AND POSSIBLY THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS...WITH LESS AMTS OCCURRING WITHIN THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY DUE TO DOWNSLOPING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/KL
NEAR TERM...GJM/KL/11
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...11/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM










000
FXUS61 KOKX 210233
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1033 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND REMAINS IN THE
VICINITY THROUGH THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD BEFORE MOVING INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES BY SATURDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY...THEN CROSSES THE TRI-
STATE SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
MINOR UPDATE TO ADJUST THE DIURNAL CURVE. CLOUD COVER HAS SLOWED
THE COOLING IN OUTLYING AREAS. NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES MADE.

UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS TOWARDS US TONIGHT ALONG WITH A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER THROUGH
THE NIGHT. MODELS AGREE THAT THERE WILL BE SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT
AND MOISTURE INCREASING OVER THE EASTERNMOST PORTION OF THE TRI
STATE AREA LATE AT NIGHT BUT WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN PLACEMENT.
THERE WILL ALSO BE INCREASING PVA...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE HUDSON
AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES. WILL CONTINUE WITH OVERALL
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOCUSED MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT...BUT WILL GO WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR THE FAR EASTERN
AND FAR WESTERN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST DURING TUESDAY...WITH A SURFACE LOW CENTER
STARTING TO DEVELOP NEAR THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY THE END
OF THE DAY. OVERALL LIFT IS NOT IMPRESSIVE...HOWEVER WITH CONTINUED
PVA AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES IN THE MID LEVELS...THINKING IS THAT
THERE WILL BE AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND. FOR THE
AFTERNOON...THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM
WITH BETTER THE STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND ELEVATED CAPE.

THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS TRICKY FOR TUESDAY AS EXTENDED
BREAKS OF PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP. HAVE GONE
WITH A MAV/NAM MOS BLEND FOR HIGHS...WHICH WERE SIMILAR.

THE LOW STRENGTHENS TO OUR SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH OVERALL BETTER
LIFT FAVORING THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE TRI STATE AREA. HAVE GONE
WITH LIKELY POPS LATE AT NIGHT HERE...WITH CHC POPS ELSEWHERE.
ELEVATED CAPE REMAINS WITH ISO TSTMS...GENERALLY SHIFTING EAST AS
THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT A CUTOFF LOW WILL TRACK FROM NEAR THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY MORNING TO SOMEWHERE NEAR NOVA SCOTIA BY
SATURDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT HAVE GONE WITH A MODEL BLEND THROUGH
THEN.

IT ALSO APPEARS THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL INSTABILITY OVER
THE ENTIRE CWA...AND TO SOME EXTENT LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY MAINLY
OVER SOUTHERN AND FAR EASTERN ZONES...TO WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...IN ADDITION TO LIKELY POPS
FOR RAIN. APPEARS ALL INGREDIENTS COME TOGETHER ISENTROPICALLY TO
WARRANT FORECASTING MODERATE RAINFALL FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE MODERATE RAINFALL POTENTIAL
RETREATING TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. AS THE
CUTOFF LOW PULLS AWAY THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THURSDAY
NIGHT...TAPERING OFF TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. FOR NOW IT APPEARS FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY DUE TO
SUBSIDING NW BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW. REFER TO THE HYDROLOGY SECTION OF
THE AFD FOR STORM TOTAL QPF AND ANY POTENTIAL IMPACTS.

THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE ON THE GENERAL FEATURES TO IMPACT THE AREA
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...BUT DIFFER ON TIMING...AND SOUTHERN PUSH
OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT. NOTING THE GFS SEEMS TO BE
LIVING UP TO ITS PROGRESSIVE BIAS...AND THE CONSISTENCY OF THE ECMWF
AND NOTING THAT THE CMC SUPPORTS THE ECMWF...LEANED TOWARDS THE
ECMWF IN THIS TIME FRAME.

SATURDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE CROSSING THE AREA.
700-500 HPA TROUGH THEN CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...BUT WITH LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...IT
SHOULD PASS BY DRY. A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE THEN BUILDS IN THEN BEGINS
TO BUILD INTO THE REGION INTO MONDAY.

FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE LONG TERM:

A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE...WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND
A MIX DOWN FROM 975-950 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WAS USED FOR HIGHS
ON WEDNESDAY...WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. FOR LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH
NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES WAS USED - WITH READINGS FORECAST TO BE
NEAR NORMAL IN NYC AND AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ELSEWHERE. FOR
HIGHS ON THURSDAY A BLEND OF MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE WAS
USED WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 950-925 HPA
PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS - WITH VALUES EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 5 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

FROM THURSDAY NIGHT-MONDAY A BLEND OF MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC
GUIDANCE WAS USED...WITH ECMWF 2-METER TEMPERATURES BLENDED IN
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...AND THE BLEND ADJUSTED UPWARD 1-2
CATEGORIES TO COUNTER BIAS TOWARDS CLIMATOLOGY IN THE GUIDANCE THAT
FAR OUT IN TIME - NOTING FORECAST 850 TEMPERATURES OF AT LEAST 10C
IN ALL MODELS ON MONDAY. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL
THURSDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...WHILE HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOVE
NORMAL...EXCEPT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON SUNDAY. HIGHS ON MONDAY
COULD VERY WELL END UP 5+ DEGREES WARMER THAN FORECAST IF CURRENT
TRENDS HOLD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN
BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS NEW YORK...PENNSYLVANIA...AND INTO
VIRGINIA TUESDAY AS ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST.

VFR WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN LATE TONIGHT...TOWARD TUESDAY
MORNING. LIGHT RAIN BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD AND LIKELY TUESDAY WITH
CONDITIONS MAINLY VFR. THERE IS A CHANCE OF MVFR CEILINGS BY THE
AFTERNOON.

LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST. TONIGHT LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WIND BECOMES VARIABLE OUTSIDE THE NY TERMINALS. THE WIND
BACKS TO THE SOUTHEAST TO EAST TUESDAY MORNING AND REMAINS LIGHT.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY
TUESDAY.


.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT...OCNL MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN.
.WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN RAIN. NLY
FLOW 10 TO 15 KT G20-25KT.
.FRIDAY...IMPROVING CONDS. NW WINDS 15-20 KT WITH 20-25 KT GUSTS.
.SATURDAY..VFR. NW G20KT.

&&

.MARINE...
SW WINDS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT WITH A SOMEWHAT WEAKER PRESSURE
GRADIENT DEVELOPING OVER THE WATERS. WINDS GRADUALLY BACK TOWARDS
THE EAST BY LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY...THEN AS A LOW CENTER DEVELOPS
TO THE SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT...WINDS BACK FARTHER TOWARDS THE NE AND
PICK UP AS THE LOW BECOMES STRONGER. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD HOWEVER
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH OF A COASTAL LOW
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THERE IS A DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST IN THAT TIME FRAME THAT IS GREATER THAN NORMAL. FOR NOW IT
APPEARS THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON
THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH A CHANCE OF SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON THE REMAINDER OF
THE WATERS DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

SUB-SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ON ALL WATERS
FRIDAY-SATURDAY - HOWEVER THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS COULD LINGER INTO FRIDAY ON THE EASTERN WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY TODAY...WITH SPOTTY LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS POSSIBLE TONIGHT.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN FROM TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT OVER THE WESTERN 1/3 OF THE
CWA...INCLUDING NYC...AND UP TO 1 1/3 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE
EASTERN 2/3 OF THE CWA...WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS OVER EASTERN CT AND LONG ISLAND.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN ANY AREA
EXPERIENCING STRONGER CONVECTION...WHICH IS LOCALLY POSSIBLE
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IF THIS OCCURS...THEN THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED MINOR URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING. OTHERWISE...WITH THE PRECIPITATION FALLING OVER 48+
HOURS...LITTLE OR NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC IMPACT IS EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...JMC/JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JC/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...JC/MALOIT







000
FXUS61 KOKX 210233
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1033 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND REMAINS IN THE
VICINITY THROUGH THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD BEFORE MOVING INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES BY SATURDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY...THEN CROSSES THE TRI-
STATE SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
MINOR UPDATE TO ADJUST THE DIURNAL CURVE. CLOUD COVER HAS SLOWED
THE COOLING IN OUTLYING AREAS. NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES MADE.

UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS TOWARDS US TONIGHT ALONG WITH A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER THROUGH
THE NIGHT. MODELS AGREE THAT THERE WILL BE SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT
AND MOISTURE INCREASING OVER THE EASTERNMOST PORTION OF THE TRI
STATE AREA LATE AT NIGHT BUT WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN PLACEMENT.
THERE WILL ALSO BE INCREASING PVA...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE HUDSON
AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES. WILL CONTINUE WITH OVERALL
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOCUSED MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT...BUT WILL GO WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR THE FAR EASTERN
AND FAR WESTERN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST DURING TUESDAY...WITH A SURFACE LOW CENTER
STARTING TO DEVELOP NEAR THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY THE END
OF THE DAY. OVERALL LIFT IS NOT IMPRESSIVE...HOWEVER WITH CONTINUED
PVA AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES IN THE MID LEVELS...THINKING IS THAT
THERE WILL BE AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND. FOR THE
AFTERNOON...THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM
WITH BETTER THE STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND ELEVATED CAPE.

THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS TRICKY FOR TUESDAY AS EXTENDED
BREAKS OF PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP. HAVE GONE
WITH A MAV/NAM MOS BLEND FOR HIGHS...WHICH WERE SIMILAR.

THE LOW STRENGTHENS TO OUR SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH OVERALL BETTER
LIFT FAVORING THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE TRI STATE AREA. HAVE GONE
WITH LIKELY POPS LATE AT NIGHT HERE...WITH CHC POPS ELSEWHERE.
ELEVATED CAPE REMAINS WITH ISO TSTMS...GENERALLY SHIFTING EAST AS
THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT A CUTOFF LOW WILL TRACK FROM NEAR THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY MORNING TO SOMEWHERE NEAR NOVA SCOTIA BY
SATURDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT HAVE GONE WITH A MODEL BLEND THROUGH
THEN.

IT ALSO APPEARS THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL INSTABILITY OVER
THE ENTIRE CWA...AND TO SOME EXTENT LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY MAINLY
OVER SOUTHERN AND FAR EASTERN ZONES...TO WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...IN ADDITION TO LIKELY POPS
FOR RAIN. APPEARS ALL INGREDIENTS COME TOGETHER ISENTROPICALLY TO
WARRANT FORECASTING MODERATE RAINFALL FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE MODERATE RAINFALL POTENTIAL
RETREATING TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. AS THE
CUTOFF LOW PULLS AWAY THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THURSDAY
NIGHT...TAPERING OFF TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. FOR NOW IT APPEARS FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY DUE TO
SUBSIDING NW BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW. REFER TO THE HYDROLOGY SECTION OF
THE AFD FOR STORM TOTAL QPF AND ANY POTENTIAL IMPACTS.

THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE ON THE GENERAL FEATURES TO IMPACT THE AREA
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...BUT DIFFER ON TIMING...AND SOUTHERN PUSH
OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT. NOTING THE GFS SEEMS TO BE
LIVING UP TO ITS PROGRESSIVE BIAS...AND THE CONSISTENCY OF THE ECMWF
AND NOTING THAT THE CMC SUPPORTS THE ECMWF...LEANED TOWARDS THE
ECMWF IN THIS TIME FRAME.

SATURDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE CROSSING THE AREA.
700-500 HPA TROUGH THEN CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...BUT WITH LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...IT
SHOULD PASS BY DRY. A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE THEN BUILDS IN THEN BEGINS
TO BUILD INTO THE REGION INTO MONDAY.

FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE LONG TERM:

A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE...WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND
A MIX DOWN FROM 975-950 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WAS USED FOR HIGHS
ON WEDNESDAY...WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. FOR LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH
NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES WAS USED - WITH READINGS FORECAST TO BE
NEAR NORMAL IN NYC AND AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ELSEWHERE. FOR
HIGHS ON THURSDAY A BLEND OF MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE WAS
USED WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 950-925 HPA
PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS - WITH VALUES EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 5 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

FROM THURSDAY NIGHT-MONDAY A BLEND OF MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC
GUIDANCE WAS USED...WITH ECMWF 2-METER TEMPERATURES BLENDED IN
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...AND THE BLEND ADJUSTED UPWARD 1-2
CATEGORIES TO COUNTER BIAS TOWARDS CLIMATOLOGY IN THE GUIDANCE THAT
FAR OUT IN TIME - NOTING FORECAST 850 TEMPERATURES OF AT LEAST 10C
IN ALL MODELS ON MONDAY. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL
THURSDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...WHILE HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOVE
NORMAL...EXCEPT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON SUNDAY. HIGHS ON MONDAY
COULD VERY WELL END UP 5+ DEGREES WARMER THAN FORECAST IF CURRENT
TRENDS HOLD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN
BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS NEW YORK...PENNSYLVANIA...AND INTO
VIRGINIA TUESDAY AS ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST.

VFR WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN LATE TONIGHT...TOWARD TUESDAY
MORNING. LIGHT RAIN BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD AND LIKELY TUESDAY WITH
CONDITIONS MAINLY VFR. THERE IS A CHANCE OF MVFR CEILINGS BY THE
AFTERNOON.

LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST. TONIGHT LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WIND BECOMES VARIABLE OUTSIDE THE NY TERMINALS. THE WIND
BACKS TO THE SOUTHEAST TO EAST TUESDAY MORNING AND REMAINS LIGHT.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY
TUESDAY.


.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT...OCNL MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN.
.WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN RAIN. NLY
FLOW 10 TO 15 KT G20-25KT.
.FRIDAY...IMPROVING CONDS. NW WINDS 15-20 KT WITH 20-25 KT GUSTS.
.SATURDAY..VFR. NW G20KT.

&&

.MARINE...
SW WINDS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT WITH A SOMEWHAT WEAKER PRESSURE
GRADIENT DEVELOPING OVER THE WATERS. WINDS GRADUALLY BACK TOWARDS
THE EAST BY LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY...THEN AS A LOW CENTER DEVELOPS
TO THE SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT...WINDS BACK FARTHER TOWARDS THE NE AND
PICK UP AS THE LOW BECOMES STRONGER. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD HOWEVER
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH OF A COASTAL LOW
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THERE IS A DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST IN THAT TIME FRAME THAT IS GREATER THAN NORMAL. FOR NOW IT
APPEARS THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON
THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH A CHANCE OF SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON THE REMAINDER OF
THE WATERS DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

SUB-SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ON ALL WATERS
FRIDAY-SATURDAY - HOWEVER THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS COULD LINGER INTO FRIDAY ON THE EASTERN WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY TODAY...WITH SPOTTY LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS POSSIBLE TONIGHT.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN FROM TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT OVER THE WESTERN 1/3 OF THE
CWA...INCLUDING NYC...AND UP TO 1 1/3 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE
EASTERN 2/3 OF THE CWA...WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS OVER EASTERN CT AND LONG ISLAND.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN ANY AREA
EXPERIENCING STRONGER CONVECTION...WHICH IS LOCALLY POSSIBLE
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IF THIS OCCURS...THEN THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED MINOR URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING. OTHERWISE...WITH THE PRECIPITATION FALLING OVER 48+
HOURS...LITTLE OR NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC IMPACT IS EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...JMC/JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JC/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...JC/MALOIT







000
FXUS61 KOKX 210233
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1033 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND REMAINS IN THE
VICINITY THROUGH THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD BEFORE MOVING INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES BY SATURDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY...THEN CROSSES THE TRI-
STATE SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
MINOR UPDATE TO ADJUST THE DIURNAL CURVE. CLOUD COVER HAS SLOWED
THE COOLING IN OUTLYING AREAS. NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES MADE.

UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS TOWARDS US TONIGHT ALONG WITH A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER THROUGH
THE NIGHT. MODELS AGREE THAT THERE WILL BE SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT
AND MOISTURE INCREASING OVER THE EASTERNMOST PORTION OF THE TRI
STATE AREA LATE AT NIGHT BUT WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN PLACEMENT.
THERE WILL ALSO BE INCREASING PVA...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE HUDSON
AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES. WILL CONTINUE WITH OVERALL
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOCUSED MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT...BUT WILL GO WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR THE FAR EASTERN
AND FAR WESTERN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST DURING TUESDAY...WITH A SURFACE LOW CENTER
STARTING TO DEVELOP NEAR THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY THE END
OF THE DAY. OVERALL LIFT IS NOT IMPRESSIVE...HOWEVER WITH CONTINUED
PVA AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES IN THE MID LEVELS...THINKING IS THAT
THERE WILL BE AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND. FOR THE
AFTERNOON...THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM
WITH BETTER THE STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND ELEVATED CAPE.

THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS TRICKY FOR TUESDAY AS EXTENDED
BREAKS OF PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP. HAVE GONE
WITH A MAV/NAM MOS BLEND FOR HIGHS...WHICH WERE SIMILAR.

THE LOW STRENGTHENS TO OUR SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH OVERALL BETTER
LIFT FAVORING THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE TRI STATE AREA. HAVE GONE
WITH LIKELY POPS LATE AT NIGHT HERE...WITH CHC POPS ELSEWHERE.
ELEVATED CAPE REMAINS WITH ISO TSTMS...GENERALLY SHIFTING EAST AS
THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT A CUTOFF LOW WILL TRACK FROM NEAR THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY MORNING TO SOMEWHERE NEAR NOVA SCOTIA BY
SATURDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT HAVE GONE WITH A MODEL BLEND THROUGH
THEN.

IT ALSO APPEARS THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL INSTABILITY OVER
THE ENTIRE CWA...AND TO SOME EXTENT LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY MAINLY
OVER SOUTHERN AND FAR EASTERN ZONES...TO WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...IN ADDITION TO LIKELY POPS
FOR RAIN. APPEARS ALL INGREDIENTS COME TOGETHER ISENTROPICALLY TO
WARRANT FORECASTING MODERATE RAINFALL FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE MODERATE RAINFALL POTENTIAL
RETREATING TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. AS THE
CUTOFF LOW PULLS AWAY THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THURSDAY
NIGHT...TAPERING OFF TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. FOR NOW IT APPEARS FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY DUE TO
SUBSIDING NW BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW. REFER TO THE HYDROLOGY SECTION OF
THE AFD FOR STORM TOTAL QPF AND ANY POTENTIAL IMPACTS.

THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE ON THE GENERAL FEATURES TO IMPACT THE AREA
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...BUT DIFFER ON TIMING...AND SOUTHERN PUSH
OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT. NOTING THE GFS SEEMS TO BE
LIVING UP TO ITS PROGRESSIVE BIAS...AND THE CONSISTENCY OF THE ECMWF
AND NOTING THAT THE CMC SUPPORTS THE ECMWF...LEANED TOWARDS THE
ECMWF IN THIS TIME FRAME.

SATURDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE CROSSING THE AREA.
700-500 HPA TROUGH THEN CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...BUT WITH LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...IT
SHOULD PASS BY DRY. A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE THEN BUILDS IN THEN BEGINS
TO BUILD INTO THE REGION INTO MONDAY.

FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE LONG TERM:

A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE...WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND
A MIX DOWN FROM 975-950 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WAS USED FOR HIGHS
ON WEDNESDAY...WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. FOR LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH
NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES WAS USED - WITH READINGS FORECAST TO BE
NEAR NORMAL IN NYC AND AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ELSEWHERE. FOR
HIGHS ON THURSDAY A BLEND OF MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE WAS
USED WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 950-925 HPA
PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS - WITH VALUES EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 5 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

FROM THURSDAY NIGHT-MONDAY A BLEND OF MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC
GUIDANCE WAS USED...WITH ECMWF 2-METER TEMPERATURES BLENDED IN
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...AND THE BLEND ADJUSTED UPWARD 1-2
CATEGORIES TO COUNTER BIAS TOWARDS CLIMATOLOGY IN THE GUIDANCE THAT
FAR OUT IN TIME - NOTING FORECAST 850 TEMPERATURES OF AT LEAST 10C
IN ALL MODELS ON MONDAY. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL
THURSDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...WHILE HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOVE
NORMAL...EXCEPT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON SUNDAY. HIGHS ON MONDAY
COULD VERY WELL END UP 5+ DEGREES WARMER THAN FORECAST IF CURRENT
TRENDS HOLD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN
BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS NEW YORK...PENNSYLVANIA...AND INTO
VIRGINIA TUESDAY AS ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST.

VFR WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN LATE TONIGHT...TOWARD TUESDAY
MORNING. LIGHT RAIN BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD AND LIKELY TUESDAY WITH
CONDITIONS MAINLY VFR. THERE IS A CHANCE OF MVFR CEILINGS BY THE
AFTERNOON.

LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST. TONIGHT LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WIND BECOMES VARIABLE OUTSIDE THE NY TERMINALS. THE WIND
BACKS TO THE SOUTHEAST TO EAST TUESDAY MORNING AND REMAINS LIGHT.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY
TUESDAY.


.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT...OCNL MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN.
.WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN RAIN. NLY
FLOW 10 TO 15 KT G20-25KT.
.FRIDAY...IMPROVING CONDS. NW WINDS 15-20 KT WITH 20-25 KT GUSTS.
.SATURDAY..VFR. NW G20KT.

&&

.MARINE...
SW WINDS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT WITH A SOMEWHAT WEAKER PRESSURE
GRADIENT DEVELOPING OVER THE WATERS. WINDS GRADUALLY BACK TOWARDS
THE EAST BY LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY...THEN AS A LOW CENTER DEVELOPS
TO THE SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT...WINDS BACK FARTHER TOWARDS THE NE AND
PICK UP AS THE LOW BECOMES STRONGER. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD HOWEVER
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH OF A COASTAL LOW
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THERE IS A DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST IN THAT TIME FRAME THAT IS GREATER THAN NORMAL. FOR NOW IT
APPEARS THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON
THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH A CHANCE OF SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON THE REMAINDER OF
THE WATERS DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

SUB-SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ON ALL WATERS
FRIDAY-SATURDAY - HOWEVER THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS COULD LINGER INTO FRIDAY ON THE EASTERN WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY TODAY...WITH SPOTTY LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS POSSIBLE TONIGHT.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN FROM TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT OVER THE WESTERN 1/3 OF THE
CWA...INCLUDING NYC...AND UP TO 1 1/3 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE
EASTERN 2/3 OF THE CWA...WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS OVER EASTERN CT AND LONG ISLAND.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN ANY AREA
EXPERIENCING STRONGER CONVECTION...WHICH IS LOCALLY POSSIBLE
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IF THIS OCCURS...THEN THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED MINOR URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING. OTHERWISE...WITH THE PRECIPITATION FALLING OVER 48+
HOURS...LITTLE OR NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC IMPACT IS EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...JMC/JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JC/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...JC/MALOIT







000
FXUS61 KOKX 210233
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1033 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND REMAINS IN THE
VICINITY THROUGH THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD BEFORE MOVING INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES BY SATURDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY...THEN CROSSES THE TRI-
STATE SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
MINOR UPDATE TO ADJUST THE DIURNAL CURVE. CLOUD COVER HAS SLOWED
THE COOLING IN OUTLYING AREAS. NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES MADE.

UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS TOWARDS US TONIGHT ALONG WITH A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER THROUGH
THE NIGHT. MODELS AGREE THAT THERE WILL BE SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT
AND MOISTURE INCREASING OVER THE EASTERNMOST PORTION OF THE TRI
STATE AREA LATE AT NIGHT BUT WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN PLACEMENT.
THERE WILL ALSO BE INCREASING PVA...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE HUDSON
AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES. WILL CONTINUE WITH OVERALL
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOCUSED MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT...BUT WILL GO WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR THE FAR EASTERN
AND FAR WESTERN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST DURING TUESDAY...WITH A SURFACE LOW CENTER
STARTING TO DEVELOP NEAR THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY THE END
OF THE DAY. OVERALL LIFT IS NOT IMPRESSIVE...HOWEVER WITH CONTINUED
PVA AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES IN THE MID LEVELS...THINKING IS THAT
THERE WILL BE AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND. FOR THE
AFTERNOON...THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM
WITH BETTER THE STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND ELEVATED CAPE.

THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS TRICKY FOR TUESDAY AS EXTENDED
BREAKS OF PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP. HAVE GONE
WITH A MAV/NAM MOS BLEND FOR HIGHS...WHICH WERE SIMILAR.

THE LOW STRENGTHENS TO OUR SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH OVERALL BETTER
LIFT FAVORING THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE TRI STATE AREA. HAVE GONE
WITH LIKELY POPS LATE AT NIGHT HERE...WITH CHC POPS ELSEWHERE.
ELEVATED CAPE REMAINS WITH ISO TSTMS...GENERALLY SHIFTING EAST AS
THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT A CUTOFF LOW WILL TRACK FROM NEAR THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY MORNING TO SOMEWHERE NEAR NOVA SCOTIA BY
SATURDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT HAVE GONE WITH A MODEL BLEND THROUGH
THEN.

IT ALSO APPEARS THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL INSTABILITY OVER
THE ENTIRE CWA...AND TO SOME EXTENT LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY MAINLY
OVER SOUTHERN AND FAR EASTERN ZONES...TO WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...IN ADDITION TO LIKELY POPS
FOR RAIN. APPEARS ALL INGREDIENTS COME TOGETHER ISENTROPICALLY TO
WARRANT FORECASTING MODERATE RAINFALL FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE MODERATE RAINFALL POTENTIAL
RETREATING TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. AS THE
CUTOFF LOW PULLS AWAY THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THURSDAY
NIGHT...TAPERING OFF TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. FOR NOW IT APPEARS FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY DUE TO
SUBSIDING NW BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW. REFER TO THE HYDROLOGY SECTION OF
THE AFD FOR STORM TOTAL QPF AND ANY POTENTIAL IMPACTS.

THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE ON THE GENERAL FEATURES TO IMPACT THE AREA
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...BUT DIFFER ON TIMING...AND SOUTHERN PUSH
OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT. NOTING THE GFS SEEMS TO BE
LIVING UP TO ITS PROGRESSIVE BIAS...AND THE CONSISTENCY OF THE ECMWF
AND NOTING THAT THE CMC SUPPORTS THE ECMWF...LEANED TOWARDS THE
ECMWF IN THIS TIME FRAME.

SATURDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE CROSSING THE AREA.
700-500 HPA TROUGH THEN CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...BUT WITH LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...IT
SHOULD PASS BY DRY. A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE THEN BUILDS IN THEN BEGINS
TO BUILD INTO THE REGION INTO MONDAY.

FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE LONG TERM:

A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE...WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND
A MIX DOWN FROM 975-950 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WAS USED FOR HIGHS
ON WEDNESDAY...WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. FOR LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH
NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES WAS USED - WITH READINGS FORECAST TO BE
NEAR NORMAL IN NYC AND AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ELSEWHERE. FOR
HIGHS ON THURSDAY A BLEND OF MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE WAS
USED WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 950-925 HPA
PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS - WITH VALUES EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 5 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

FROM THURSDAY NIGHT-MONDAY A BLEND OF MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC
GUIDANCE WAS USED...WITH ECMWF 2-METER TEMPERATURES BLENDED IN
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...AND THE BLEND ADJUSTED UPWARD 1-2
CATEGORIES TO COUNTER BIAS TOWARDS CLIMATOLOGY IN THE GUIDANCE THAT
FAR OUT IN TIME - NOTING FORECAST 850 TEMPERATURES OF AT LEAST 10C
IN ALL MODELS ON MONDAY. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL
THURSDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...WHILE HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOVE
NORMAL...EXCEPT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON SUNDAY. HIGHS ON MONDAY
COULD VERY WELL END UP 5+ DEGREES WARMER THAN FORECAST IF CURRENT
TRENDS HOLD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN
BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS NEW YORK...PENNSYLVANIA...AND INTO
VIRGINIA TUESDAY AS ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST.

VFR WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN LATE TONIGHT...TOWARD TUESDAY
MORNING. LIGHT RAIN BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD AND LIKELY TUESDAY WITH
CONDITIONS MAINLY VFR. THERE IS A CHANCE OF MVFR CEILINGS BY THE
AFTERNOON.

LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST. TONIGHT LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WIND BECOMES VARIABLE OUTSIDE THE NY TERMINALS. THE WIND
BACKS TO THE SOUTHEAST TO EAST TUESDAY MORNING AND REMAINS LIGHT.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY
TUESDAY.


.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT...OCNL MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN.
.WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN RAIN. NLY
FLOW 10 TO 15 KT G20-25KT.
.FRIDAY...IMPROVING CONDS. NW WINDS 15-20 KT WITH 20-25 KT GUSTS.
.SATURDAY..VFR. NW G20KT.

&&

.MARINE...
SW WINDS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT WITH A SOMEWHAT WEAKER PRESSURE
GRADIENT DEVELOPING OVER THE WATERS. WINDS GRADUALLY BACK TOWARDS
THE EAST BY LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY...THEN AS A LOW CENTER DEVELOPS
TO THE SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT...WINDS BACK FARTHER TOWARDS THE NE AND
PICK UP AS THE LOW BECOMES STRONGER. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD HOWEVER
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH OF A COASTAL LOW
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THERE IS A DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST IN THAT TIME FRAME THAT IS GREATER THAN NORMAL. FOR NOW IT
APPEARS THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON
THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH A CHANCE OF SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON THE REMAINDER OF
THE WATERS DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

SUB-SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ON ALL WATERS
FRIDAY-SATURDAY - HOWEVER THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS COULD LINGER INTO FRIDAY ON THE EASTERN WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY TODAY...WITH SPOTTY LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS POSSIBLE TONIGHT.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN FROM TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT OVER THE WESTERN 1/3 OF THE
CWA...INCLUDING NYC...AND UP TO 1 1/3 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE
EASTERN 2/3 OF THE CWA...WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS OVER EASTERN CT AND LONG ISLAND.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN ANY AREA
EXPERIENCING STRONGER CONVECTION...WHICH IS LOCALLY POSSIBLE
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IF THIS OCCURS...THEN THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED MINOR URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING. OTHERWISE...WITH THE PRECIPITATION FALLING OVER 48+
HOURS...LITTLE OR NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC IMPACT IS EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...JMC/JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JC/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...JC/MALOIT







000
FXUS61 KALY 210150
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
950 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT...AND INTENSIFY AS IT SHIFTS TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
WEDNESDAY...THEN NORTHEAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY. A
LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND INTERMITTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 945 PM EDT...LOW PRESSURE WAS JUST EAST OF GEORGIAN BAY
WITH A STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHING EAST ALONG THE US CANADIAN
BORDER AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY BACK TOWARD THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. CLOUD COVER HAS
BECOME EXTENSIVE ACROSS THE FA WITH MAINLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS.
THERE HAVE BEEN OCCASIONAL WEAK RETURNS ON RADAR OVER THE PAST
FEW HOURS...BUT MOST OF THIS IS EVAPORATING BEFORE REACHING THE
SFC...OR VIRGA. WE HAVE RECEIVED REPORTS OF A FEW LOCATIONS
RECEIVING A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN...BUT IT MOST AREAS
THUS FAR THE RADAR RETURNS HAVE ONLY RESULTED IN SPRINKLES.


IT STILL APPEARS THAT LOW LEVEL DRY AIR AS INDICATED BY THE 00Z
ALY SOUNDING MAY LIMIT MUCH RAINFALL FROM OCCURRING
OVERNIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...WHERE
MID LEVELS WILL HAVE MOISTENED UP A BIT...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
BE MORE PERSISTENT. SOME SCATTERED SPRINKLES MAY OCCUR LATER
TONIGHT A BIT FARTHER S AND E...ESP TOWARD DAYBREAK...WHEN SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS COULD OCCUR. WILL GENERALLY KEEP POPS IN THE 30-40
PERCENT RANGE...HIGHEST TOWARD DAYBREAK...EXCEPT FOR SOME LIKELY
POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

OVERNIGHT MINS SHOULD BE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT DUE TO CLOUDS AND
WARM ADVECTION. HAVE TRENDED MOST AREAS CLOSER TO THE WARMER MET
MOS...WITH GENERALLY UPPER 30S TO MID 40S EXPECTED...WARMEST WITHIN
THE HUDSON VALLEY REGION...WHERE A LIGHT SOUTH WIND SHOULD PERSIST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DIGGING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL FORM A CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH A SFC LOW
DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST. FOR OUR REGION...ALTHOUGH SOME MID LEVEL
FORCING WILL BE PRESENT...ESP ACROSS WESTERN AREAS...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY BE QUITE LIMITED DURING THIS TIME. SO...IT APPEARS
THAT MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WOULD BE THE BEST WAY TO
DESCRIBE RAINFALL CHANCES DURING TUESDAY...WITH SOME AREAS
POSSIBLY EXPERIENCING SOME LONGER STRETCHES OF DRY WEATHER IN BETWEEN.
IN FACT...ACROSS SOME SOUTHERN AREAS...A FEW BREAKS OF SUN COULD
EVEN OCCUR AT TIMES. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE MORE PERSISTENT
ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY...AND EVENTUALLY THE
SE CATSKILLS...WHERE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ARE
INDICATED...AND RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD BE MORE PERSISTENT. FOR TUE
NT...AGAIN...OVERALL AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS MAY NOT BE ALL THAT
GREAT...WITH THE MAIN FORCING DURING THIS TIME REMAINING ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND EVENTUALLY NEW ENGLAND COAST. WILL KEEP
CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS...BUT AGAIN...IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL NOT
BE RAINING ALL THE TIME AND IN ALL AREAS. AS FOR TEMPS...ASSUMING
SOME THIN SPOTS IN THE CLOUDS...AND LIMITED PRECIP OCCUR...HAVE
SIDED A BIT CLOSER TO THE WARMER MET MOS FOR TUE MAXES...WITH
GENERALLY 55-60 IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN. FOR TUE NT...AS LOW LEVEL WINDS GRADUALLY BACK
INTO THE NE IN RESPONSE TO LOWERING PRESSURES TO OUR SOUTH...TEMPS
SHOULD COOL INTO THE LOWER/MID 40S...WITH PERHAPS SOME UPPER 30S
POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

WED-THU...MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THE LOW LEVEL
EASTERLY JET WILL INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS
TIME...BEFORE SLOWLY PIVOTING SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD WED NT-THU. THE
NOSE OF THIS LOW LEVEL JET SEEMS TO BE LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND FOR WED AFTN...BEFORE PIVOTING SOUTHWARD TOWARD CENTRAL
NEW ENGLAND LATE WED NT AND THU. LOW LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS LOW LEVEL JET...ALONG WITH STRONGER ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE
295-300 K SURFACES...WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
SHOULD BE MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...AND POSSIBLY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA AND NW CT FOR A TIME WED NT-
THU. ALSO...A SECONDARY MAX IN PRECIP IS LIKELY ACROSS UPSLOPE
AREAS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT
BETWEEN 1-2 INCHES MAY OCCUR IN THESE MORE FAVORABLE AREAS...WITH
GENERALLY 0.50-1 INCH IN THE VALLEYS. IN FACT...IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT STRONG NE DOWNSLOPING WINDS COULD CREATE MORE DRAMATIC RAIN
SHADOWING IN PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...WHERE SOME
AREAS COULD BE AT OR EVEN BELOW THE LOWER END OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED VALLEY RANGES. SO...BANDS OF RAIN ROTATING WEST AND
SOUTHWEST AROUND THE MID LEVEL LOW CENTER WILL BECOME MORE
PROMINENT FOR WED-THU...WITH A PERIOD OF STEADIER RAIN
POSSIBLE...ESP WED NT AND THU AM...AS THE LOW LEVEL JET BRIEFLY
ORIENTS ITSELF TOWARD EASTERN NYS/WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. IT WILL BE
QUITE RAW DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH BRISK N/NE WINDS. IN
FACT...SOME GUSTS OF 35-40 MPH COULD OCCUR AT TIMES ACROSS SOME
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN
MTNS...TACONICS...BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD HILLS LATE WED
AFTERNOON INTO WED NT. MAX TEMPS ON WED SHOULD ONLY REACH THE
LOWER/MID 50S IN VALLEYS...AND 40S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH EVEN COOLER MAXES COULD OCCUR IF STEADIER
RAIN DEVELOPS. THU MAXES SHOULD ONLY REACH 45-50 FOR MOST VALLEY
AREAS AND 40-45 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS FOR WED
NT/THU AM SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER 40S IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THINGS START OFF WET BUT QUICKLY TURN DRY AS LOW PRESSURE EAST OF
CAPE COD HEADS UP THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...DRAWING WET
WEATHER TO A CLOSE FRIDAY NIGHT...AND PROVIDING FOR A PLEASANT LATE
OCTOBER WEEKEND.  A FEW WESTERN ADIRONDACK SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A RAPIDLY
MOVING...THOUGH VERY DRY...COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  BY EARLY MONDAY...THIS FRONT WILL
HAVE MADE IT ALL THE WAY TO SOUTH FLORIDA...BUT THE COLD AIR WILL BE
HARDLY NOTICEABLE DOWN THERE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE IN MOSTLY THE 45 TO 60 DEGREE
RANGE...BUT WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES MILDER FOR THE BALANCE OF THE
EXTENDED.  OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY ABOVE FREEZING AT ALL LOCATIONS...BUT WILL FALL INTO
THE 40S EVERYWHERE.  NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD IN
ALBANY ARE IN THE THE MID TO UPPER 50S...WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD
ENDING 00Z WEDNESDAY. HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE OVERSPREAD
THE REGION AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE
GREAT LAKES. CEILING HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY
THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND SHOULD LOWER OVERNIGHT BUT REMAIN IN
VFR RANGE AS THE TROUGH MOVES IN. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 12Z...SO WILL MENTION VCSH AT ALL
TERMINALS. THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF SOME SHOWERS AFFECTING ALL
TAF SITES AFT 18Z SO HAVE PLACED 6SM -SHRA IN THE TAFS AFTER
THIS TIME.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO NEAR CALM TONIGHT...THEN VARIABLE AT 3KT
OR LESS TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PDS RA.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT...AND INTENSIFY AS IT SHIFTS TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
WEDNESDAY...THEN NORTHEAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY. A
LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND INTERMITTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF SOUTH AND EAST THE REGION. INTERMITTENT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL EXPECTED FOR LATE WED INTO EARLY THU.

WITH THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR...ESP LATE WED INTO EARLY THU. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO
TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA
DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL
WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD OF A FEW DAYS...SO NO WIDESPREAD
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS
THAT THE GREATEST AMTS WOULD BE FAVORED ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...ESP SOUTHERN VT...AND POSSIBLY THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS...WITH LESS AMTS OCCURRING WITHIN THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY DUE TO DOWNSLOPING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/GJM
NEAR TERM...KL/11
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...11/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM







000
FXUS61 KALY 210150
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
950 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT...AND INTENSIFY AS IT SHIFTS TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
WEDNESDAY...THEN NORTHEAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY. A
LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND INTERMITTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 945 PM EDT...LOW PRESSURE WAS JUST EAST OF GEORGIAN BAY
WITH A STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHING EAST ALONG THE US CANADIAN
BORDER AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY BACK TOWARD THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. CLOUD COVER HAS
BECOME EXTENSIVE ACROSS THE FA WITH MAINLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS.
THERE HAVE BEEN OCCASIONAL WEAK RETURNS ON RADAR OVER THE PAST
FEW HOURS...BUT MOST OF THIS IS EVAPORATING BEFORE REACHING THE
SFC...OR VIRGA. WE HAVE RECEIVED REPORTS OF A FEW LOCATIONS
RECEIVING A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN...BUT IT MOST AREAS
THUS FAR THE RADAR RETURNS HAVE ONLY RESULTED IN SPRINKLES.


IT STILL APPEARS THAT LOW LEVEL DRY AIR AS INDICATED BY THE 00Z
ALY SOUNDING MAY LIMIT MUCH RAINFALL FROM OCCURRING
OVERNIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...WHERE
MID LEVELS WILL HAVE MOISTENED UP A BIT...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
BE MORE PERSISTENT. SOME SCATTERED SPRINKLES MAY OCCUR LATER
TONIGHT A BIT FARTHER S AND E...ESP TOWARD DAYBREAK...WHEN SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS COULD OCCUR. WILL GENERALLY KEEP POPS IN THE 30-40
PERCENT RANGE...HIGHEST TOWARD DAYBREAK...EXCEPT FOR SOME LIKELY
POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

OVERNIGHT MINS SHOULD BE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT DUE TO CLOUDS AND
WARM ADVECTION. HAVE TRENDED MOST AREAS CLOSER TO THE WARMER MET
MOS...WITH GENERALLY UPPER 30S TO MID 40S EXPECTED...WARMEST WITHIN
THE HUDSON VALLEY REGION...WHERE A LIGHT SOUTH WIND SHOULD PERSIST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DIGGING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL FORM A CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH A SFC LOW
DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST. FOR OUR REGION...ALTHOUGH SOME MID LEVEL
FORCING WILL BE PRESENT...ESP ACROSS WESTERN AREAS...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY BE QUITE LIMITED DURING THIS TIME. SO...IT APPEARS
THAT MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WOULD BE THE BEST WAY TO
DESCRIBE RAINFALL CHANCES DURING TUESDAY...WITH SOME AREAS
POSSIBLY EXPERIENCING SOME LONGER STRETCHES OF DRY WEATHER IN BETWEEN.
IN FACT...ACROSS SOME SOUTHERN AREAS...A FEW BREAKS OF SUN COULD
EVEN OCCUR AT TIMES. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE MORE PERSISTENT
ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY...AND EVENTUALLY THE
SE CATSKILLS...WHERE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ARE
INDICATED...AND RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD BE MORE PERSISTENT. FOR TUE
NT...AGAIN...OVERALL AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS MAY NOT BE ALL THAT
GREAT...WITH THE MAIN FORCING DURING THIS TIME REMAINING ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND EVENTUALLY NEW ENGLAND COAST. WILL KEEP
CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS...BUT AGAIN...IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL NOT
BE RAINING ALL THE TIME AND IN ALL AREAS. AS FOR TEMPS...ASSUMING
SOME THIN SPOTS IN THE CLOUDS...AND LIMITED PRECIP OCCUR...HAVE
SIDED A BIT CLOSER TO THE WARMER MET MOS FOR TUE MAXES...WITH
GENERALLY 55-60 IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN. FOR TUE NT...AS LOW LEVEL WINDS GRADUALLY BACK
INTO THE NE IN RESPONSE TO LOWERING PRESSURES TO OUR SOUTH...TEMPS
SHOULD COOL INTO THE LOWER/MID 40S...WITH PERHAPS SOME UPPER 30S
POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

WED-THU...MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THE LOW LEVEL
EASTERLY JET WILL INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS
TIME...BEFORE SLOWLY PIVOTING SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD WED NT-THU. THE
NOSE OF THIS LOW LEVEL JET SEEMS TO BE LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND FOR WED AFTN...BEFORE PIVOTING SOUTHWARD TOWARD CENTRAL
NEW ENGLAND LATE WED NT AND THU. LOW LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS LOW LEVEL JET...ALONG WITH STRONGER ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE
295-300 K SURFACES...WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
SHOULD BE MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...AND POSSIBLY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA AND NW CT FOR A TIME WED NT-
THU. ALSO...A SECONDARY MAX IN PRECIP IS LIKELY ACROSS UPSLOPE
AREAS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT
BETWEEN 1-2 INCHES MAY OCCUR IN THESE MORE FAVORABLE AREAS...WITH
GENERALLY 0.50-1 INCH IN THE VALLEYS. IN FACT...IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT STRONG NE DOWNSLOPING WINDS COULD CREATE MORE DRAMATIC RAIN
SHADOWING IN PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...WHERE SOME
AREAS COULD BE AT OR EVEN BELOW THE LOWER END OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED VALLEY RANGES. SO...BANDS OF RAIN ROTATING WEST AND
SOUTHWEST AROUND THE MID LEVEL LOW CENTER WILL BECOME MORE
PROMINENT FOR WED-THU...WITH A PERIOD OF STEADIER RAIN
POSSIBLE...ESP WED NT AND THU AM...AS THE LOW LEVEL JET BRIEFLY
ORIENTS ITSELF TOWARD EASTERN NYS/WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. IT WILL BE
QUITE RAW DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH BRISK N/NE WINDS. IN
FACT...SOME GUSTS OF 35-40 MPH COULD OCCUR AT TIMES ACROSS SOME
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN
MTNS...TACONICS...BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD HILLS LATE WED
AFTERNOON INTO WED NT. MAX TEMPS ON WED SHOULD ONLY REACH THE
LOWER/MID 50S IN VALLEYS...AND 40S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH EVEN COOLER MAXES COULD OCCUR IF STEADIER
RAIN DEVELOPS. THU MAXES SHOULD ONLY REACH 45-50 FOR MOST VALLEY
AREAS AND 40-45 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS FOR WED
NT/THU AM SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER 40S IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THINGS START OFF WET BUT QUICKLY TURN DRY AS LOW PRESSURE EAST OF
CAPE COD HEADS UP THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...DRAWING WET
WEATHER TO A CLOSE FRIDAY NIGHT...AND PROVIDING FOR A PLEASANT LATE
OCTOBER WEEKEND.  A FEW WESTERN ADIRONDACK SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A RAPIDLY
MOVING...THOUGH VERY DRY...COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  BY EARLY MONDAY...THIS FRONT WILL
HAVE MADE IT ALL THE WAY TO SOUTH FLORIDA...BUT THE COLD AIR WILL BE
HARDLY NOTICEABLE DOWN THERE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE IN MOSTLY THE 45 TO 60 DEGREE
RANGE...BUT WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES MILDER FOR THE BALANCE OF THE
EXTENDED.  OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY ABOVE FREEZING AT ALL LOCATIONS...BUT WILL FALL INTO
THE 40S EVERYWHERE.  NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD IN
ALBANY ARE IN THE THE MID TO UPPER 50S...WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD
ENDING 00Z WEDNESDAY. HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE OVERSPREAD
THE REGION AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE
GREAT LAKES. CEILING HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY
THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND SHOULD LOWER OVERNIGHT BUT REMAIN IN
VFR RANGE AS THE TROUGH MOVES IN. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 12Z...SO WILL MENTION VCSH AT ALL
TERMINALS. THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF SOME SHOWERS AFFECTING ALL
TAF SITES AFT 18Z SO HAVE PLACED 6SM -SHRA IN THE TAFS AFTER
THIS TIME.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO NEAR CALM TONIGHT...THEN VARIABLE AT 3KT
OR LESS TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PDS RA.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT...AND INTENSIFY AS IT SHIFTS TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
WEDNESDAY...THEN NORTHEAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY. A
LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND INTERMITTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF SOUTH AND EAST THE REGION. INTERMITTENT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL EXPECTED FOR LATE WED INTO EARLY THU.

WITH THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR...ESP LATE WED INTO EARLY THU. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO
TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA
DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL
WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD OF A FEW DAYS...SO NO WIDESPREAD
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS
THAT THE GREATEST AMTS WOULD BE FAVORED ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...ESP SOUTHERN VT...AND POSSIBLY THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS...WITH LESS AMTS OCCURRING WITHIN THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY DUE TO DOWNSLOPING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/GJM
NEAR TERM...KL/11
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...11/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM








000
FXUS61 KALY 210150
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
950 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT...AND INTENSIFY AS IT SHIFTS TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
WEDNESDAY...THEN NORTHEAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY. A
LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND INTERMITTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 945 PM EDT...LOW PRESSURE WAS JUST EAST OF GEORGIAN BAY
WITH A STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHING EAST ALONG THE US CANADIAN
BORDER AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY BACK TOWARD THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. CLOUD COVER HAS
BECOME EXTENSIVE ACROSS THE FA WITH MAINLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS.
THERE HAVE BEEN OCCASIONAL WEAK RETURNS ON RADAR OVER THE PAST
FEW HOURS...BUT MOST OF THIS IS EVAPORATING BEFORE REACHING THE
SFC...OR VIRGA. WE HAVE RECEIVED REPORTS OF A FEW LOCATIONS
RECEIVING A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN...BUT IT MOST AREAS
THUS FAR THE RADAR RETURNS HAVE ONLY RESULTED IN SPRINKLES.


IT STILL APPEARS THAT LOW LEVEL DRY AIR AS INDICATED BY THE 00Z
ALY SOUNDING MAY LIMIT MUCH RAINFALL FROM OCCURRING
OVERNIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...WHERE
MID LEVELS WILL HAVE MOISTENED UP A BIT...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
BE MORE PERSISTENT. SOME SCATTERED SPRINKLES MAY OCCUR LATER
TONIGHT A BIT FARTHER S AND E...ESP TOWARD DAYBREAK...WHEN SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS COULD OCCUR. WILL GENERALLY KEEP POPS IN THE 30-40
PERCENT RANGE...HIGHEST TOWARD DAYBREAK...EXCEPT FOR SOME LIKELY
POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

OVERNIGHT MINS SHOULD BE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT DUE TO CLOUDS AND
WARM ADVECTION. HAVE TRENDED MOST AREAS CLOSER TO THE WARMER MET
MOS...WITH GENERALLY UPPER 30S TO MID 40S EXPECTED...WARMEST WITHIN
THE HUDSON VALLEY REGION...WHERE A LIGHT SOUTH WIND SHOULD PERSIST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DIGGING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL FORM A CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH A SFC LOW
DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST. FOR OUR REGION...ALTHOUGH SOME MID LEVEL
FORCING WILL BE PRESENT...ESP ACROSS WESTERN AREAS...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY BE QUITE LIMITED DURING THIS TIME. SO...IT APPEARS
THAT MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WOULD BE THE BEST WAY TO
DESCRIBE RAINFALL CHANCES DURING TUESDAY...WITH SOME AREAS
POSSIBLY EXPERIENCING SOME LONGER STRETCHES OF DRY WEATHER IN BETWEEN.
IN FACT...ACROSS SOME SOUTHERN AREAS...A FEW BREAKS OF SUN COULD
EVEN OCCUR AT TIMES. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE MORE PERSISTENT
ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY...AND EVENTUALLY THE
SE CATSKILLS...WHERE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ARE
INDICATED...AND RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD BE MORE PERSISTENT. FOR TUE
NT...AGAIN...OVERALL AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS MAY NOT BE ALL THAT
GREAT...WITH THE MAIN FORCING DURING THIS TIME REMAINING ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND EVENTUALLY NEW ENGLAND COAST. WILL KEEP
CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS...BUT AGAIN...IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL NOT
BE RAINING ALL THE TIME AND IN ALL AREAS. AS FOR TEMPS...ASSUMING
SOME THIN SPOTS IN THE CLOUDS...AND LIMITED PRECIP OCCUR...HAVE
SIDED A BIT CLOSER TO THE WARMER MET MOS FOR TUE MAXES...WITH
GENERALLY 55-60 IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN. FOR TUE NT...AS LOW LEVEL WINDS GRADUALLY BACK
INTO THE NE IN RESPONSE TO LOWERING PRESSURES TO OUR SOUTH...TEMPS
SHOULD COOL INTO THE LOWER/MID 40S...WITH PERHAPS SOME UPPER 30S
POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

WED-THU...MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THE LOW LEVEL
EASTERLY JET WILL INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS
TIME...BEFORE SLOWLY PIVOTING SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD WED NT-THU. THE
NOSE OF THIS LOW LEVEL JET SEEMS TO BE LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND FOR WED AFTN...BEFORE PIVOTING SOUTHWARD TOWARD CENTRAL
NEW ENGLAND LATE WED NT AND THU. LOW LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS LOW LEVEL JET...ALONG WITH STRONGER ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE
295-300 K SURFACES...WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
SHOULD BE MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...AND POSSIBLY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA AND NW CT FOR A TIME WED NT-
THU. ALSO...A SECONDARY MAX IN PRECIP IS LIKELY ACROSS UPSLOPE
AREAS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT
BETWEEN 1-2 INCHES MAY OCCUR IN THESE MORE FAVORABLE AREAS...WITH
GENERALLY 0.50-1 INCH IN THE VALLEYS. IN FACT...IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT STRONG NE DOWNSLOPING WINDS COULD CREATE MORE DRAMATIC RAIN
SHADOWING IN PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...WHERE SOME
AREAS COULD BE AT OR EVEN BELOW THE LOWER END OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED VALLEY RANGES. SO...BANDS OF RAIN ROTATING WEST AND
SOUTHWEST AROUND THE MID LEVEL LOW CENTER WILL BECOME MORE
PROMINENT FOR WED-THU...WITH A PERIOD OF STEADIER RAIN
POSSIBLE...ESP WED NT AND THU AM...AS THE LOW LEVEL JET BRIEFLY
ORIENTS ITSELF TOWARD EASTERN NYS/WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. IT WILL BE
QUITE RAW DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH BRISK N/NE WINDS. IN
FACT...SOME GUSTS OF 35-40 MPH COULD OCCUR AT TIMES ACROSS SOME
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN
MTNS...TACONICS...BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD HILLS LATE WED
AFTERNOON INTO WED NT. MAX TEMPS ON WED SHOULD ONLY REACH THE
LOWER/MID 50S IN VALLEYS...AND 40S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH EVEN COOLER MAXES COULD OCCUR IF STEADIER
RAIN DEVELOPS. THU MAXES SHOULD ONLY REACH 45-50 FOR MOST VALLEY
AREAS AND 40-45 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS FOR WED
NT/THU AM SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER 40S IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THINGS START OFF WET BUT QUICKLY TURN DRY AS LOW PRESSURE EAST OF
CAPE COD HEADS UP THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...DRAWING WET
WEATHER TO A CLOSE FRIDAY NIGHT...AND PROVIDING FOR A PLEASANT LATE
OCTOBER WEEKEND.  A FEW WESTERN ADIRONDACK SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A RAPIDLY
MOVING...THOUGH VERY DRY...COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  BY EARLY MONDAY...THIS FRONT WILL
HAVE MADE IT ALL THE WAY TO SOUTH FLORIDA...BUT THE COLD AIR WILL BE
HARDLY NOTICEABLE DOWN THERE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE IN MOSTLY THE 45 TO 60 DEGREE
RANGE...BUT WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES MILDER FOR THE BALANCE OF THE
EXTENDED.  OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY ABOVE FREEZING AT ALL LOCATIONS...BUT WILL FALL INTO
THE 40S EVERYWHERE.  NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD IN
ALBANY ARE IN THE THE MID TO UPPER 50S...WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD
ENDING 00Z WEDNESDAY. HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE OVERSPREAD
THE REGION AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE
GREAT LAKES. CEILING HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY
THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND SHOULD LOWER OVERNIGHT BUT REMAIN IN
VFR RANGE AS THE TROUGH MOVES IN. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 12Z...SO WILL MENTION VCSH AT ALL
TERMINALS. THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF SOME SHOWERS AFFECTING ALL
TAF SITES AFT 18Z SO HAVE PLACED 6SM -SHRA IN THE TAFS AFTER
THIS TIME.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO NEAR CALM TONIGHT...THEN VARIABLE AT 3KT
OR LESS TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PDS RA.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT...AND INTENSIFY AS IT SHIFTS TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
WEDNESDAY...THEN NORTHEAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY. A
LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND INTERMITTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF SOUTH AND EAST THE REGION. INTERMITTENT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL EXPECTED FOR LATE WED INTO EARLY THU.

WITH THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR...ESP LATE WED INTO EARLY THU. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO
TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA
DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL
WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD OF A FEW DAYS...SO NO WIDESPREAD
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS
THAT THE GREATEST AMTS WOULD BE FAVORED ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...ESP SOUTHERN VT...AND POSSIBLY THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS...WITH LESS AMTS OCCURRING WITHIN THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY DUE TO DOWNSLOPING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/GJM
NEAR TERM...KL/11
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...11/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM







000
FXUS61 KALY 210150
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
950 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT...AND INTENSIFY AS IT SHIFTS TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
WEDNESDAY...THEN NORTHEAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY. A
LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND INTERMITTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 945 PM EDT...LOW PRESSURE WAS JUST EAST OF GEORGIAN BAY
WITH A STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHING EAST ALONG THE US CANADIAN
BORDER AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY BACK TOWARD THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. CLOUD COVER HAS
BECOME EXTENSIVE ACROSS THE FA WITH MAINLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS.
THERE HAVE BEEN OCCASIONAL WEAK RETURNS ON RADAR OVER THE PAST
FEW HOURS...BUT MOST OF THIS IS EVAPORATING BEFORE REACHING THE
SFC...OR VIRGA. WE HAVE RECEIVED REPORTS OF A FEW LOCATIONS
RECEIVING A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN...BUT IT MOST AREAS
THUS FAR THE RADAR RETURNS HAVE ONLY RESULTED IN SPRINKLES.


IT STILL APPEARS THAT LOW LEVEL DRY AIR AS INDICATED BY THE 00Z
ALY SOUNDING MAY LIMIT MUCH RAINFALL FROM OCCURRING
OVERNIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...WHERE
MID LEVELS WILL HAVE MOISTENED UP A BIT...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
BE MORE PERSISTENT. SOME SCATTERED SPRINKLES MAY OCCUR LATER
TONIGHT A BIT FARTHER S AND E...ESP TOWARD DAYBREAK...WHEN SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS COULD OCCUR. WILL GENERALLY KEEP POPS IN THE 30-40
PERCENT RANGE...HIGHEST TOWARD DAYBREAK...EXCEPT FOR SOME LIKELY
POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

OVERNIGHT MINS SHOULD BE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT DUE TO CLOUDS AND
WARM ADVECTION. HAVE TRENDED MOST AREAS CLOSER TO THE WARMER MET
MOS...WITH GENERALLY UPPER 30S TO MID 40S EXPECTED...WARMEST WITHIN
THE HUDSON VALLEY REGION...WHERE A LIGHT SOUTH WIND SHOULD PERSIST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DIGGING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL FORM A CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH A SFC LOW
DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST. FOR OUR REGION...ALTHOUGH SOME MID LEVEL
FORCING WILL BE PRESENT...ESP ACROSS WESTERN AREAS...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY BE QUITE LIMITED DURING THIS TIME. SO...IT APPEARS
THAT MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WOULD BE THE BEST WAY TO
DESCRIBE RAINFALL CHANCES DURING TUESDAY...WITH SOME AREAS
POSSIBLY EXPERIENCING SOME LONGER STRETCHES OF DRY WEATHER IN BETWEEN.
IN FACT...ACROSS SOME SOUTHERN AREAS...A FEW BREAKS OF SUN COULD
EVEN OCCUR AT TIMES. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE MORE PERSISTENT
ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY...AND EVENTUALLY THE
SE CATSKILLS...WHERE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ARE
INDICATED...AND RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD BE MORE PERSISTENT. FOR TUE
NT...AGAIN...OVERALL AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS MAY NOT BE ALL THAT
GREAT...WITH THE MAIN FORCING DURING THIS TIME REMAINING ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND EVENTUALLY NEW ENGLAND COAST. WILL KEEP
CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS...BUT AGAIN...IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL NOT
BE RAINING ALL THE TIME AND IN ALL AREAS. AS FOR TEMPS...ASSUMING
SOME THIN SPOTS IN THE CLOUDS...AND LIMITED PRECIP OCCUR...HAVE
SIDED A BIT CLOSER TO THE WARMER MET MOS FOR TUE MAXES...WITH
GENERALLY 55-60 IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN. FOR TUE NT...AS LOW LEVEL WINDS GRADUALLY BACK
INTO THE NE IN RESPONSE TO LOWERING PRESSURES TO OUR SOUTH...TEMPS
SHOULD COOL INTO THE LOWER/MID 40S...WITH PERHAPS SOME UPPER 30S
POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

WED-THU...MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THE LOW LEVEL
EASTERLY JET WILL INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS
TIME...BEFORE SLOWLY PIVOTING SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD WED NT-THU. THE
NOSE OF THIS LOW LEVEL JET SEEMS TO BE LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND FOR WED AFTN...BEFORE PIVOTING SOUTHWARD TOWARD CENTRAL
NEW ENGLAND LATE WED NT AND THU. LOW LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS LOW LEVEL JET...ALONG WITH STRONGER ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE
295-300 K SURFACES...WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
SHOULD BE MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...AND POSSIBLY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA AND NW CT FOR A TIME WED NT-
THU. ALSO...A SECONDARY MAX IN PRECIP IS LIKELY ACROSS UPSLOPE
AREAS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT
BETWEEN 1-2 INCHES MAY OCCUR IN THESE MORE FAVORABLE AREAS...WITH
GENERALLY 0.50-1 INCH IN THE VALLEYS. IN FACT...IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT STRONG NE DOWNSLOPING WINDS COULD CREATE MORE DRAMATIC RAIN
SHADOWING IN PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...WHERE SOME
AREAS COULD BE AT OR EVEN BELOW THE LOWER END OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED VALLEY RANGES. SO...BANDS OF RAIN ROTATING WEST AND
SOUTHWEST AROUND THE MID LEVEL LOW CENTER WILL BECOME MORE
PROMINENT FOR WED-THU...WITH A PERIOD OF STEADIER RAIN
POSSIBLE...ESP WED NT AND THU AM...AS THE LOW LEVEL JET BRIEFLY
ORIENTS ITSELF TOWARD EASTERN NYS/WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. IT WILL BE
QUITE RAW DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH BRISK N/NE WINDS. IN
FACT...SOME GUSTS OF 35-40 MPH COULD OCCUR AT TIMES ACROSS SOME
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN
MTNS...TACONICS...BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD HILLS LATE WED
AFTERNOON INTO WED NT. MAX TEMPS ON WED SHOULD ONLY REACH THE
LOWER/MID 50S IN VALLEYS...AND 40S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH EVEN COOLER MAXES COULD OCCUR IF STEADIER
RAIN DEVELOPS. THU MAXES SHOULD ONLY REACH 45-50 FOR MOST VALLEY
AREAS AND 40-45 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS FOR WED
NT/THU AM SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER 40S IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THINGS START OFF WET BUT QUICKLY TURN DRY AS LOW PRESSURE EAST OF
CAPE COD HEADS UP THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...DRAWING WET
WEATHER TO A CLOSE FRIDAY NIGHT...AND PROVIDING FOR A PLEASANT LATE
OCTOBER WEEKEND.  A FEW WESTERN ADIRONDACK SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A RAPIDLY
MOVING...THOUGH VERY DRY...COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  BY EARLY MONDAY...THIS FRONT WILL
HAVE MADE IT ALL THE WAY TO SOUTH FLORIDA...BUT THE COLD AIR WILL BE
HARDLY NOTICEABLE DOWN THERE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE IN MOSTLY THE 45 TO 60 DEGREE
RANGE...BUT WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES MILDER FOR THE BALANCE OF THE
EXTENDED.  OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY ABOVE FREEZING AT ALL LOCATIONS...BUT WILL FALL INTO
THE 40S EVERYWHERE.  NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD IN
ALBANY ARE IN THE THE MID TO UPPER 50S...WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD
ENDING 00Z WEDNESDAY. HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE OVERSPREAD
THE REGION AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE
GREAT LAKES. CEILING HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY
THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND SHOULD LOWER OVERNIGHT BUT REMAIN IN
VFR RANGE AS THE TROUGH MOVES IN. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 12Z...SO WILL MENTION VCSH AT ALL
TERMINALS. THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF SOME SHOWERS AFFECTING ALL
TAF SITES AFT 18Z SO HAVE PLACED 6SM -SHRA IN THE TAFS AFTER
THIS TIME.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO NEAR CALM TONIGHT...THEN VARIABLE AT 3KT
OR LESS TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PDS RA.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT...AND INTENSIFY AS IT SHIFTS TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
WEDNESDAY...THEN NORTHEAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY. A
LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND INTERMITTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF SOUTH AND EAST THE REGION. INTERMITTENT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL EXPECTED FOR LATE WED INTO EARLY THU.

WITH THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR...ESP LATE WED INTO EARLY THU. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO
TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA
DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL
WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD OF A FEW DAYS...SO NO WIDESPREAD
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS
THAT THE GREATEST AMTS WOULD BE FAVORED ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...ESP SOUTHERN VT...AND POSSIBLY THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS...WITH LESS AMTS OCCURRING WITHIN THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY DUE TO DOWNSLOPING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/GJM
NEAR TERM...KL/11
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...11/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM








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