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000
FXUS61 KALY 301129
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
645 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE LOW IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY
AND THURSDAY. THE ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY DUE
TO A STRONGER DISTURBANCE. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MID DECK OF CLOUDS HOLDING ON OVER MOST OF AREA...THESE CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED DECREASE THIS MORNING. MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY COVER
TO ADDRESS THIS...PLUS UPDATED TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS.
OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT ANOTHER DAY OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
BUT NOT AS COOL AS TUESDAY AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER A DEEP
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG WITH THE
POSSIBILITY FOR THUNDER IS EXPECTED TODAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE ROTATES ABOUT THE UPPER LOW OVER
EASTERN CANADA. THE CHANCES WILL BE MAINLY FOR AREAS TO THE WEST
OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO FALL ABOUT
5 DEGREES SHORT NORMAL WITH READINGS MAINLY IN 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LINGERING CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
AND THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORT WAVE THIS EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AS A STRONGER SHORT WAVE ROTATES
ABOUT THE UPPER LOW. THIS PIECE OF ENERGY WILL CAUSE THE UPPER
LOW TO ALSO SHIFT SOUTHWARD. GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
TIMING OF THIS SHORT WAVE AND HAS IT MOVING OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND OFF TO OUR
NORTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. SO THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
WILL BE DURING THE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AND
ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. IT WILL BE
COOL WITH HIGHS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS SHORT WAVE A DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP FOR FRIDAY AS THE LOW BEGINS TO LIFTS NORTHWARD AND WEAKEN.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A WARMER DAY...HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER
80S...ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN DEW POINTS/HUMIDITY LEVELS. WITH
THE HEATING OF THE DAY CAN NOT RULE THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THE GENERAL SETUP THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL
FEATURE A LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH
THE TROUGH AXIS SITUATED TO THE WEST OF OUR AREA OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY...AND A STRONG RIDGE SITUATED EAST OF THE AREA
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE RESULT WILL BE A PERSISTENTLY MOIST
S-SW FLOW OF AIR OVER THE REGION.

PWAT VALUES WILL BE RISING OVER THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AREAS HAVING VALUES BETWEEN 1.50-1.90 INCHES BY
LATE SUNDAY. WITH A NEARBY STATIONARY SFC BOUNDARY LOCATED JUST
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...THERE WILL BE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY OVER THE WEEKEND...MAINLY IN THE AFTN AND
EVENING HOURS. ANY SHOWER/TSTM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. THUNDER MAY NOT BE OVERLY WIDESPREAD...DUE TO LIMITED
INSTABILITY THANKS TO ALL THE CLOUD COVER. TEMPS WILL BE HELD DOWN
SOMEWHAT DUE TO CLOUDS/POSSIBLE PRECIP....WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S
TO NEAR 80...AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN SITUATED JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD FOR MON/TUESDAY...WHICH WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. EVENTUALLY...THE TROUGH
TO OUR WEST WILL START TO WEAKEN...AND THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
START TO BECOME MORE ZONAL TOWARDS MID WEEK...AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. EVENTUALLY...THIS FRONT
WILL CLEAR OUR AREA...AND ALLOWING FOR HUMIDITY LEVELS TO DECREASE
SOMEWHAT.  WHILE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MID WEEK PERIOD...THIS SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM UP BY A FEW DEGREES...WITH LOW 80S FOR
VALLEY AREAS...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S...BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1130Z...VFR CONDITIONS WERE CURRENTLY IN PLACE AT ALL
TERMINALS WITH BKN-OVC CIGS AT 7-9 KFT AND NEARLY CALM WINDS. THESE
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SWINGING AROUND THE MAIN TROUGH OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF JUST SCT CLOUDS BY LATER THIS
MORNING...DIURNAL CU/STRATOCU AT 5-7 KFT WILL DEVELOP...ALLOWING FOR
BKN CIGS TO RETURN TO MOST SITES BY THE EARLY TO MID AFTN HOURS.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A BRIEF LIGHT RAIN SHOWER...BUT COVERAGE
LOOKS TOO SMALL TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. S-SW WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT...GENERALLY AROUND 5 KTS.

BKN CIGS LOOK TO CONTINUE RIGHT INTO TONIGHT. THESE CLOUDS IN PLACE
WILL PREVENT ANY RADIATIONAL FOG FROM OCCURRING...WITH CONTINUED VFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI-SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE LOW IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY
AND THURSDAY. THE ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY DUE
TO A STRONGER DISTURBANCE. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS
THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS LOW WILL WOBBLE OVER EASTERN CANADA AS
SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT AND WILL MOVE NORTH AND WEAK AS WE
HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WEEKEND SO STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA










000
FXUS61 KALY 301129
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
645 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE LOW IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY
AND THURSDAY. THE ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY DUE
TO A STRONGER DISTURBANCE. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MID DECK OF CLOUDS HOLDING ON OVER MOST OF AREA...THESE CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED DECREASE THIS MORNING. MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY COVER
TO ADDRESS THIS...PLUS UPDATED TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS.
OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT ANOTHER DAY OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
BUT NOT AS COOL AS TUESDAY AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER A DEEP
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG WITH THE
POSSIBILITY FOR THUNDER IS EXPECTED TODAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE ROTATES ABOUT THE UPPER LOW OVER
EASTERN CANADA. THE CHANCES WILL BE MAINLY FOR AREAS TO THE WEST
OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO FALL ABOUT
5 DEGREES SHORT NORMAL WITH READINGS MAINLY IN 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LINGERING CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
AND THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORT WAVE THIS EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AS A STRONGER SHORT WAVE ROTATES
ABOUT THE UPPER LOW. THIS PIECE OF ENERGY WILL CAUSE THE UPPER
LOW TO ALSO SHIFT SOUTHWARD. GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
TIMING OF THIS SHORT WAVE AND HAS IT MOVING OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND OFF TO OUR
NORTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. SO THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
WILL BE DURING THE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AND
ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. IT WILL BE
COOL WITH HIGHS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS SHORT WAVE A DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP FOR FRIDAY AS THE LOW BEGINS TO LIFTS NORTHWARD AND WEAKEN.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A WARMER DAY...HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER
80S...ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN DEW POINTS/HUMIDITY LEVELS. WITH
THE HEATING OF THE DAY CAN NOT RULE THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THE GENERAL SETUP THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL
FEATURE A LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH
THE TROUGH AXIS SITUATED TO THE WEST OF OUR AREA OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY...AND A STRONG RIDGE SITUATED EAST OF THE AREA
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE RESULT WILL BE A PERSISTENTLY MOIST
S-SW FLOW OF AIR OVER THE REGION.

PWAT VALUES WILL BE RISING OVER THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AREAS HAVING VALUES BETWEEN 1.50-1.90 INCHES BY
LATE SUNDAY. WITH A NEARBY STATIONARY SFC BOUNDARY LOCATED JUST
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...THERE WILL BE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY OVER THE WEEKEND...MAINLY IN THE AFTN AND
EVENING HOURS. ANY SHOWER/TSTM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. THUNDER MAY NOT BE OVERLY WIDESPREAD...DUE TO LIMITED
INSTABILITY THANKS TO ALL THE CLOUD COVER. TEMPS WILL BE HELD DOWN
SOMEWHAT DUE TO CLOUDS/POSSIBLE PRECIP....WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S
TO NEAR 80...AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN SITUATED JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD FOR MON/TUESDAY...WHICH WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. EVENTUALLY...THE TROUGH
TO OUR WEST WILL START TO WEAKEN...AND THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
START TO BECOME MORE ZONAL TOWARDS MID WEEK...AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. EVENTUALLY...THIS FRONT
WILL CLEAR OUR AREA...AND ALLOWING FOR HUMIDITY LEVELS TO DECREASE
SOMEWHAT.  WHILE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MID WEEK PERIOD...THIS SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM UP BY A FEW DEGREES...WITH LOW 80S FOR
VALLEY AREAS...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S...BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1130Z...VFR CONDITIONS WERE CURRENTLY IN PLACE AT ALL
TERMINALS WITH BKN-OVC CIGS AT 7-9 KFT AND NEARLY CALM WINDS. THESE
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SWINGING AROUND THE MAIN TROUGH OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF JUST SCT CLOUDS BY LATER THIS
MORNING...DIURNAL CU/STRATOCU AT 5-7 KFT WILL DEVELOP...ALLOWING FOR
BKN CIGS TO RETURN TO MOST SITES BY THE EARLY TO MID AFTN HOURS.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A BRIEF LIGHT RAIN SHOWER...BUT COVERAGE
LOOKS TOO SMALL TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. S-SW WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT...GENERALLY AROUND 5 KTS.

BKN CIGS LOOK TO CONTINUE RIGHT INTO TONIGHT. THESE CLOUDS IN PLACE
WILL PREVENT ANY RADIATIONAL FOG FROM OCCURRING...WITH CONTINUED VFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI-SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE LOW IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY
AND THURSDAY. THE ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY DUE
TO A STRONGER DISTURBANCE. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS
THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS LOW WILL WOBBLE OVER EASTERN CANADA AS
SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT AND WILL MOVE NORTH AND WEAK AS WE
HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WEEKEND SO STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA










000
FXUS61 KALY 301129
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
645 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE LOW IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY
AND THURSDAY. THE ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY DUE
TO A STRONGER DISTURBANCE. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MID DECK OF CLOUDS HOLDING ON OVER MOST OF AREA...THESE CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED DECREASE THIS MORNING. MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY COVER
TO ADDRESS THIS...PLUS UPDATED TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS.
OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT ANOTHER DAY OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
BUT NOT AS COOL AS TUESDAY AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER A DEEP
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG WITH THE
POSSIBILITY FOR THUNDER IS EXPECTED TODAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE ROTATES ABOUT THE UPPER LOW OVER
EASTERN CANADA. THE CHANCES WILL BE MAINLY FOR AREAS TO THE WEST
OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO FALL ABOUT
5 DEGREES SHORT NORMAL WITH READINGS MAINLY IN 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LINGERING CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
AND THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORT WAVE THIS EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AS A STRONGER SHORT WAVE ROTATES
ABOUT THE UPPER LOW. THIS PIECE OF ENERGY WILL CAUSE THE UPPER
LOW TO ALSO SHIFT SOUTHWARD. GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
TIMING OF THIS SHORT WAVE AND HAS IT MOVING OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND OFF TO OUR
NORTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. SO THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
WILL BE DURING THE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AND
ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. IT WILL BE
COOL WITH HIGHS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS SHORT WAVE A DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP FOR FRIDAY AS THE LOW BEGINS TO LIFTS NORTHWARD AND WEAKEN.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A WARMER DAY...HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER
80S...ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN DEW POINTS/HUMIDITY LEVELS. WITH
THE HEATING OF THE DAY CAN NOT RULE THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THE GENERAL SETUP THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL
FEATURE A LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH
THE TROUGH AXIS SITUATED TO THE WEST OF OUR AREA OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY...AND A STRONG RIDGE SITUATED EAST OF THE AREA
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE RESULT WILL BE A PERSISTENTLY MOIST
S-SW FLOW OF AIR OVER THE REGION.

PWAT VALUES WILL BE RISING OVER THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AREAS HAVING VALUES BETWEEN 1.50-1.90 INCHES BY
LATE SUNDAY. WITH A NEARBY STATIONARY SFC BOUNDARY LOCATED JUST
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...THERE WILL BE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY OVER THE WEEKEND...MAINLY IN THE AFTN AND
EVENING HOURS. ANY SHOWER/TSTM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. THUNDER MAY NOT BE OVERLY WIDESPREAD...DUE TO LIMITED
INSTABILITY THANKS TO ALL THE CLOUD COVER. TEMPS WILL BE HELD DOWN
SOMEWHAT DUE TO CLOUDS/POSSIBLE PRECIP....WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S
TO NEAR 80...AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN SITUATED JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD FOR MON/TUESDAY...WHICH WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. EVENTUALLY...THE TROUGH
TO OUR WEST WILL START TO WEAKEN...AND THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
START TO BECOME MORE ZONAL TOWARDS MID WEEK...AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. EVENTUALLY...THIS FRONT
WILL CLEAR OUR AREA...AND ALLOWING FOR HUMIDITY LEVELS TO DECREASE
SOMEWHAT.  WHILE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MID WEEK PERIOD...THIS SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM UP BY A FEW DEGREES...WITH LOW 80S FOR
VALLEY AREAS...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S...BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1130Z...VFR CONDITIONS WERE CURRENTLY IN PLACE AT ALL
TERMINALS WITH BKN-OVC CIGS AT 7-9 KFT AND NEARLY CALM WINDS. THESE
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SWINGING AROUND THE MAIN TROUGH OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF JUST SCT CLOUDS BY LATER THIS
MORNING...DIURNAL CU/STRATOCU AT 5-7 KFT WILL DEVELOP...ALLOWING FOR
BKN CIGS TO RETURN TO MOST SITES BY THE EARLY TO MID AFTN HOURS.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A BRIEF LIGHT RAIN SHOWER...BUT COVERAGE
LOOKS TOO SMALL TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. S-SW WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT...GENERALLY AROUND 5 KTS.

BKN CIGS LOOK TO CONTINUE RIGHT INTO TONIGHT. THESE CLOUDS IN PLACE
WILL PREVENT ANY RADIATIONAL FOG FROM OCCURRING...WITH CONTINUED VFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI-SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE LOW IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY
AND THURSDAY. THE ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY DUE
TO A STRONGER DISTURBANCE. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS
THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS LOW WILL WOBBLE OVER EASTERN CANADA AS
SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT AND WILL MOVE NORTH AND WEAK AS WE
HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WEEKEND SO STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA










000
FXUS61 KALY 301129
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
645 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE LOW IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY
AND THURSDAY. THE ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY DUE
TO A STRONGER DISTURBANCE. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MID DECK OF CLOUDS HOLDING ON OVER MOST OF AREA...THESE CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED DECREASE THIS MORNING. MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY COVER
TO ADDRESS THIS...PLUS UPDATED TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS.
OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT ANOTHER DAY OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
BUT NOT AS COOL AS TUESDAY AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER A DEEP
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG WITH THE
POSSIBILITY FOR THUNDER IS EXPECTED TODAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE ROTATES ABOUT THE UPPER LOW OVER
EASTERN CANADA. THE CHANCES WILL BE MAINLY FOR AREAS TO THE WEST
OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO FALL ABOUT
5 DEGREES SHORT NORMAL WITH READINGS MAINLY IN 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LINGERING CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
AND THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORT WAVE THIS EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AS A STRONGER SHORT WAVE ROTATES
ABOUT THE UPPER LOW. THIS PIECE OF ENERGY WILL CAUSE THE UPPER
LOW TO ALSO SHIFT SOUTHWARD. GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
TIMING OF THIS SHORT WAVE AND HAS IT MOVING OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND OFF TO OUR
NORTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. SO THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
WILL BE DURING THE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AND
ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. IT WILL BE
COOL WITH HIGHS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS SHORT WAVE A DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP FOR FRIDAY AS THE LOW BEGINS TO LIFTS NORTHWARD AND WEAKEN.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A WARMER DAY...HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER
80S...ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN DEW POINTS/HUMIDITY LEVELS. WITH
THE HEATING OF THE DAY CAN NOT RULE THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THE GENERAL SETUP THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL
FEATURE A LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH
THE TROUGH AXIS SITUATED TO THE WEST OF OUR AREA OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY...AND A STRONG RIDGE SITUATED EAST OF THE AREA
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE RESULT WILL BE A PERSISTENTLY MOIST
S-SW FLOW OF AIR OVER THE REGION.

PWAT VALUES WILL BE RISING OVER THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AREAS HAVING VALUES BETWEEN 1.50-1.90 INCHES BY
LATE SUNDAY. WITH A NEARBY STATIONARY SFC BOUNDARY LOCATED JUST
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...THERE WILL BE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY OVER THE WEEKEND...MAINLY IN THE AFTN AND
EVENING HOURS. ANY SHOWER/TSTM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. THUNDER MAY NOT BE OVERLY WIDESPREAD...DUE TO LIMITED
INSTABILITY THANKS TO ALL THE CLOUD COVER. TEMPS WILL BE HELD DOWN
SOMEWHAT DUE TO CLOUDS/POSSIBLE PRECIP....WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S
TO NEAR 80...AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN SITUATED JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD FOR MON/TUESDAY...WHICH WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. EVENTUALLY...THE TROUGH
TO OUR WEST WILL START TO WEAKEN...AND THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
START TO BECOME MORE ZONAL TOWARDS MID WEEK...AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. EVENTUALLY...THIS FRONT
WILL CLEAR OUR AREA...AND ALLOWING FOR HUMIDITY LEVELS TO DECREASE
SOMEWHAT.  WHILE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MID WEEK PERIOD...THIS SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM UP BY A FEW DEGREES...WITH LOW 80S FOR
VALLEY AREAS...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S...BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1130Z...VFR CONDITIONS WERE CURRENTLY IN PLACE AT ALL
TERMINALS WITH BKN-OVC CIGS AT 7-9 KFT AND NEARLY CALM WINDS. THESE
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SWINGING AROUND THE MAIN TROUGH OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF JUST SCT CLOUDS BY LATER THIS
MORNING...DIURNAL CU/STRATOCU AT 5-7 KFT WILL DEVELOP...ALLOWING FOR
BKN CIGS TO RETURN TO MOST SITES BY THE EARLY TO MID AFTN HOURS.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A BRIEF LIGHT RAIN SHOWER...BUT COVERAGE
LOOKS TOO SMALL TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. S-SW WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT...GENERALLY AROUND 5 KTS.

BKN CIGS LOOK TO CONTINUE RIGHT INTO TONIGHT. THESE CLOUDS IN PLACE
WILL PREVENT ANY RADIATIONAL FOG FROM OCCURRING...WITH CONTINUED VFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI-SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE LOW IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY
AND THURSDAY. THE ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY DUE
TO A STRONGER DISTURBANCE. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS
THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS LOW WILL WOBBLE OVER EASTERN CANADA AS
SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT AND WILL MOVE NORTH AND WEAK AS WE
HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WEEKEND SO STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA









  [top]

000
FXUS61 KOKX 301122
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
722 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAK
INLAND LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ON THURSDAY AND REMAIN INTO
FRIDAY. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL ALSO INCREASE FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND DUE TO THE HIGH OFFSHORE. A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS LIKELY
FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BKN-OVC PATCHES OF ALTOCU OVER ERN LI SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THIS
MORNING.

MODELS IN CLOSER AGREEMENT ON LIMITED MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES...SO FCST IS
DRY. CONVECTIVE TEMPS SHOULD HOWEVER BE REACHED...SO EXPECT SCT CU
THIS AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY BKN AT TIMES NW OF NYC.

EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S...CLOSE TO A GFS/NAM MOS
GUIDANCE BLEND AND CONSISTENT WITH MIXING UP TO 825 MB.

DEEPER MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD SLOWLY EDGE INTO AREAS FROM NYC
NORTH/WEST TONIGHT...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THERE AND PTCLDY
SKIES TO THE EAST. FORCING FOR SHOWERS WILL BE LACKING AS
SHORTWAVES PIVOTING AROUND A CLOSED UPPER LOW IN ONTARIO/QUEBEC
WILL BE WEAK AND PASSING JUST TO THE NW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
A BETTER AND MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL COME ON THU
AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE PIVOTS AROUND THE CLOSED LOW...AND THERE
MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED TSTM PER NAM FCST
SOUNDINGS. HAVE SCT COVERAGE ACROSS NEARLY THE ENTIRE CWA DESPITE
ONSHORE FLOW...AS MARINE LAYER LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH TO INHIBIT
CONVECTION ONLY ACROSS FAR ERN SECTIONS OF LONG ISLAND AND SE CT.
HIGHS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE 00Z MODEL SUITE SUGGESTS THE PREVIOUS FCST WAS ON TRACK...SO
ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE.

INSTABILITY ACROSS MAINLY THE INTERIOR FRI WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
PERHAPS A FEW SHRA AND TSTMS. LEFT THE LOW CHC POPS AT 30.
MARITIME LAYER OVERSPREADS THE ENTIRE CWA...SO TSTM CHCS APPEAR TO
DROP SIGNIFICANTLY BY EVE...EVEN FAR INLAND.

SUBTROPICAL TAP APPEARS LIKELY FOR THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER THE GFS
INDICATES THE BEST FORCING AND RESULTANT RAIN CHCS ON SUNDAY...
WITH THE ECMWF ON SAT. MAINTAINED AROUND 40 POP FOR THE WEEKEND...
ALTHOUGH IT DOES NOT APPEAR IT WILL RAIN ALL WEEKEND ATTM.
WITH PW INCREASING TO AROUND 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL...DID INCREASE
RAINFALL INTENSITY TO MDT.

COLD FROPA EXPECTED ON TUE PER THE 00Z DATA...BUT THE ASSOCIATED
PRE-FRONTAL TROF SHOULD USHER THE BEST MOISTURE OFFSHORE BEFORE...
POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS MON. FOR THIS REASON THE SCHC POPS ON MON
ARE APPROPRIATE...WITH A FEW ISOLD SHRA POSSIBLE IN THE DRIER
AIR MASS TUE AFTN.

TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD ARE CLOSE TO THE GRAPHICAL MOS...WITH THE
PREV 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SPREAD
THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION.

VFR. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS CONTINUE UNTIL SEA BREEZES DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON AND PASS THROUGH SOME TERMINALS. WINDS GENERALLY SW
TO S 10KT OR LESS.

SHOWERS POSSIBLE BY 18Z THURSDAY BUT CHANCES TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS
AT THIS TIME.

..NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SEA BREEZE MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR IN
EITHER DIRECTION.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS MAY BE NECESSARY IF NE WIND OCCURS
EARLIER THAN FORECAST. SEA BREEZE TIMING MAY BE TOO EARLY BY AN HOUR
OR TWO.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO SEA BREEZE FORECAST BUT AMENDMENTS MAY BE
NEEDED IF SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE TIMING MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR IN
EITHER DIRECTION.


.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS.
.SATURDAY-SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR...IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SCT
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BLW SCA LVLS FRI THRU THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY
SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING AND TRACK OF
UPR LVL FEATURES. SOME AREAS OF MINOR FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE
WHERE THESE OCCUR.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/JMC
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...LN
MARINE...JMC/GOODMAN/MET/DW
HYDROLOGY...JMC/GOODMAN










000
FXUS61 KOKX 301122
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
722 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAK
INLAND LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ON THURSDAY AND REMAIN INTO
FRIDAY. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL ALSO INCREASE FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND DUE TO THE HIGH OFFSHORE. A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS LIKELY
FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BKN-OVC PATCHES OF ALTOCU OVER ERN LI SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THIS
MORNING.

MODELS IN CLOSER AGREEMENT ON LIMITED MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES...SO FCST IS
DRY. CONVECTIVE TEMPS SHOULD HOWEVER BE REACHED...SO EXPECT SCT CU
THIS AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY BKN AT TIMES NW OF NYC.

EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S...CLOSE TO A GFS/NAM MOS
GUIDANCE BLEND AND CONSISTENT WITH MIXING UP TO 825 MB.

DEEPER MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD SLOWLY EDGE INTO AREAS FROM NYC
NORTH/WEST TONIGHT...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THERE AND PTCLDY
SKIES TO THE EAST. FORCING FOR SHOWERS WILL BE LACKING AS
SHORTWAVES PIVOTING AROUND A CLOSED UPPER LOW IN ONTARIO/QUEBEC
WILL BE WEAK AND PASSING JUST TO THE NW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
A BETTER AND MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL COME ON THU
AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE PIVOTS AROUND THE CLOSED LOW...AND THERE
MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED TSTM PER NAM FCST
SOUNDINGS. HAVE SCT COVERAGE ACROSS NEARLY THE ENTIRE CWA DESPITE
ONSHORE FLOW...AS MARINE LAYER LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH TO INHIBIT
CONVECTION ONLY ACROSS FAR ERN SECTIONS OF LONG ISLAND AND SE CT.
HIGHS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE 00Z MODEL SUITE SUGGESTS THE PREVIOUS FCST WAS ON TRACK...SO
ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE.

INSTABILITY ACROSS MAINLY THE INTERIOR FRI WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
PERHAPS A FEW SHRA AND TSTMS. LEFT THE LOW CHC POPS AT 30.
MARITIME LAYER OVERSPREADS THE ENTIRE CWA...SO TSTM CHCS APPEAR TO
DROP SIGNIFICANTLY BY EVE...EVEN FAR INLAND.

SUBTROPICAL TAP APPEARS LIKELY FOR THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER THE GFS
INDICATES THE BEST FORCING AND RESULTANT RAIN CHCS ON SUNDAY...
WITH THE ECMWF ON SAT. MAINTAINED AROUND 40 POP FOR THE WEEKEND...
ALTHOUGH IT DOES NOT APPEAR IT WILL RAIN ALL WEEKEND ATTM.
WITH PW INCREASING TO AROUND 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL...DID INCREASE
RAINFALL INTENSITY TO MDT.

COLD FROPA EXPECTED ON TUE PER THE 00Z DATA...BUT THE ASSOCIATED
PRE-FRONTAL TROF SHOULD USHER THE BEST MOISTURE OFFSHORE BEFORE...
POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS MON. FOR THIS REASON THE SCHC POPS ON MON
ARE APPROPRIATE...WITH A FEW ISOLD SHRA POSSIBLE IN THE DRIER
AIR MASS TUE AFTN.

TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD ARE CLOSE TO THE GRAPHICAL MOS...WITH THE
PREV 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SPREAD
THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION.

VFR. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS CONTINUE UNTIL SEA BREEZES DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON AND PASS THROUGH SOME TERMINALS. WINDS GENERALLY SW
TO S 10KT OR LESS.

SHOWERS POSSIBLE BY 18Z THURSDAY BUT CHANCES TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS
AT THIS TIME.

..NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SEA BREEZE MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR IN
EITHER DIRECTION.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS MAY BE NECESSARY IF NE WIND OCCURS
EARLIER THAN FORECAST. SEA BREEZE TIMING MAY BE TOO EARLY BY AN HOUR
OR TWO.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO SEA BREEZE FORECAST BUT AMENDMENTS MAY BE
NEEDED IF SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE TIMING MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR IN
EITHER DIRECTION.


.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS.
.SATURDAY-SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR...IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SCT
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BLW SCA LVLS FRI THRU THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY
SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING AND TRACK OF
UPR LVL FEATURES. SOME AREAS OF MINOR FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE
WHERE THESE OCCUR.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/JMC
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...LN
MARINE...JMC/GOODMAN/MET/DW
HYDROLOGY...JMC/GOODMAN










000
FXUS61 KOKX 301122
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
722 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAK
INLAND LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ON THURSDAY AND REMAIN INTO
FRIDAY. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL ALSO INCREASE FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND DUE TO THE HIGH OFFSHORE. A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS LIKELY
FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BKN-OVC PATCHES OF ALTOCU OVER ERN LI SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THIS
MORNING.

MODELS IN CLOSER AGREEMENT ON LIMITED MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES...SO FCST IS
DRY. CONVECTIVE TEMPS SHOULD HOWEVER BE REACHED...SO EXPECT SCT CU
THIS AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY BKN AT TIMES NW OF NYC.

EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S...CLOSE TO A GFS/NAM MOS
GUIDANCE BLEND AND CONSISTENT WITH MIXING UP TO 825 MB.

DEEPER MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD SLOWLY EDGE INTO AREAS FROM NYC
NORTH/WEST TONIGHT...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THERE AND PTCLDY
SKIES TO THE EAST. FORCING FOR SHOWERS WILL BE LACKING AS
SHORTWAVES PIVOTING AROUND A CLOSED UPPER LOW IN ONTARIO/QUEBEC
WILL BE WEAK AND PASSING JUST TO THE NW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
A BETTER AND MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL COME ON THU
AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE PIVOTS AROUND THE CLOSED LOW...AND THERE
MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED TSTM PER NAM FCST
SOUNDINGS. HAVE SCT COVERAGE ACROSS NEARLY THE ENTIRE CWA DESPITE
ONSHORE FLOW...AS MARINE LAYER LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH TO INHIBIT
CONVECTION ONLY ACROSS FAR ERN SECTIONS OF LONG ISLAND AND SE CT.
HIGHS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE 00Z MODEL SUITE SUGGESTS THE PREVIOUS FCST WAS ON TRACK...SO
ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE.

INSTABILITY ACROSS MAINLY THE INTERIOR FRI WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
PERHAPS A FEW SHRA AND TSTMS. LEFT THE LOW CHC POPS AT 30.
MARITIME LAYER OVERSPREADS THE ENTIRE CWA...SO TSTM CHCS APPEAR TO
DROP SIGNIFICANTLY BY EVE...EVEN FAR INLAND.

SUBTROPICAL TAP APPEARS LIKELY FOR THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER THE GFS
INDICATES THE BEST FORCING AND RESULTANT RAIN CHCS ON SUNDAY...
WITH THE ECMWF ON SAT. MAINTAINED AROUND 40 POP FOR THE WEEKEND...
ALTHOUGH IT DOES NOT APPEAR IT WILL RAIN ALL WEEKEND ATTM.
WITH PW INCREASING TO AROUND 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL...DID INCREASE
RAINFALL INTENSITY TO MDT.

COLD FROPA EXPECTED ON TUE PER THE 00Z DATA...BUT THE ASSOCIATED
PRE-FRONTAL TROF SHOULD USHER THE BEST MOISTURE OFFSHORE BEFORE...
POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS MON. FOR THIS REASON THE SCHC POPS ON MON
ARE APPROPRIATE...WITH A FEW ISOLD SHRA POSSIBLE IN THE DRIER
AIR MASS TUE AFTN.

TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD ARE CLOSE TO THE GRAPHICAL MOS...WITH THE
PREV 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SPREAD
THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION.

VFR. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS CONTINUE UNTIL SEA BREEZES DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON AND PASS THROUGH SOME TERMINALS. WINDS GENERALLY SW
TO S 10KT OR LESS.

SHOWERS POSSIBLE BY 18Z THURSDAY BUT CHANCES TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS
AT THIS TIME.

..NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SEA BREEZE MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR IN
EITHER DIRECTION.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS MAY BE NECESSARY IF NE WIND OCCURS
EARLIER THAN FORECAST. SEA BREEZE TIMING MAY BE TOO EARLY BY AN HOUR
OR TWO.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO SEA BREEZE FORECAST BUT AMENDMENTS MAY BE
NEEDED IF SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE TIMING MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR IN
EITHER DIRECTION.


.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS.
.SATURDAY-SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR...IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SCT
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BLW SCA LVLS FRI THRU THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY
SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING AND TRACK OF
UPR LVL FEATURES. SOME AREAS OF MINOR FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE
WHERE THESE OCCUR.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/JMC
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...LN
MARINE...JMC/GOODMAN/MET/DW
HYDROLOGY...JMC/GOODMAN










000
FXUS61 KOKX 301122
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
722 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAK
INLAND LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ON THURSDAY AND REMAIN INTO
FRIDAY. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL ALSO INCREASE FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND DUE TO THE HIGH OFFSHORE. A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS LIKELY
FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BKN-OVC PATCHES OF ALTOCU OVER ERN LI SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THIS
MORNING.

MODELS IN CLOSER AGREEMENT ON LIMITED MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES...SO FCST IS
DRY. CONVECTIVE TEMPS SHOULD HOWEVER BE REACHED...SO EXPECT SCT CU
THIS AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY BKN AT TIMES NW OF NYC.

EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S...CLOSE TO A GFS/NAM MOS
GUIDANCE BLEND AND CONSISTENT WITH MIXING UP TO 825 MB.

DEEPER MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD SLOWLY EDGE INTO AREAS FROM NYC
NORTH/WEST TONIGHT...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THERE AND PTCLDY
SKIES TO THE EAST. FORCING FOR SHOWERS WILL BE LACKING AS
SHORTWAVES PIVOTING AROUND A CLOSED UPPER LOW IN ONTARIO/QUEBEC
WILL BE WEAK AND PASSING JUST TO THE NW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
A BETTER AND MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL COME ON THU
AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE PIVOTS AROUND THE CLOSED LOW...AND THERE
MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED TSTM PER NAM FCST
SOUNDINGS. HAVE SCT COVERAGE ACROSS NEARLY THE ENTIRE CWA DESPITE
ONSHORE FLOW...AS MARINE LAYER LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH TO INHIBIT
CONVECTION ONLY ACROSS FAR ERN SECTIONS OF LONG ISLAND AND SE CT.
HIGHS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE 00Z MODEL SUITE SUGGESTS THE PREVIOUS FCST WAS ON TRACK...SO
ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE.

INSTABILITY ACROSS MAINLY THE INTERIOR FRI WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
PERHAPS A FEW SHRA AND TSTMS. LEFT THE LOW CHC POPS AT 30.
MARITIME LAYER OVERSPREADS THE ENTIRE CWA...SO TSTM CHCS APPEAR TO
DROP SIGNIFICANTLY BY EVE...EVEN FAR INLAND.

SUBTROPICAL TAP APPEARS LIKELY FOR THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER THE GFS
INDICATES THE BEST FORCING AND RESULTANT RAIN CHCS ON SUNDAY...
WITH THE ECMWF ON SAT. MAINTAINED AROUND 40 POP FOR THE WEEKEND...
ALTHOUGH IT DOES NOT APPEAR IT WILL RAIN ALL WEEKEND ATTM.
WITH PW INCREASING TO AROUND 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL...DID INCREASE
RAINFALL INTENSITY TO MDT.

COLD FROPA EXPECTED ON TUE PER THE 00Z DATA...BUT THE ASSOCIATED
PRE-FRONTAL TROF SHOULD USHER THE BEST MOISTURE OFFSHORE BEFORE...
POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS MON. FOR THIS REASON THE SCHC POPS ON MON
ARE APPROPRIATE...WITH A FEW ISOLD SHRA POSSIBLE IN THE DRIER
AIR MASS TUE AFTN.

TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD ARE CLOSE TO THE GRAPHICAL MOS...WITH THE
PREV 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SPREAD
THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION.

VFR. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS CONTINUE UNTIL SEA BREEZES DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON AND PASS THROUGH SOME TERMINALS. WINDS GENERALLY SW
TO S 10KT OR LESS.

SHOWERS POSSIBLE BY 18Z THURSDAY BUT CHANCES TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS
AT THIS TIME.

..NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SEA BREEZE MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR IN
EITHER DIRECTION.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS MAY BE NECESSARY IF NE WIND OCCURS
EARLIER THAN FORECAST. SEA BREEZE TIMING MAY BE TOO EARLY BY AN HOUR
OR TWO.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO SEA BREEZE FORECAST BUT AMENDMENTS MAY BE
NEEDED IF SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE TIMING MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR IN
EITHER DIRECTION.


.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS.
.SATURDAY-SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR...IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SCT
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BLW SCA LVLS FRI THRU THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY
SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING AND TRACK OF
UPR LVL FEATURES. SOME AREAS OF MINOR FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE
WHERE THESE OCCUR.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/JMC
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...LN
MARINE...JMC/GOODMAN/MET/DW
HYDROLOGY...JMC/GOODMAN









  [top]

000
FXUS61 KBOX 301057
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
657 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY/PLEASANT WEATHER TODAY OTHER THAN PERHAPS A BRIEF PASSING
SPRINKLE.  A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ARE
POSSIBLE THU AND FRI...BUT MOST OF THE TIME WILL FEATURE DRY
WEATHER. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN
SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS CLOSE TO THE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
7 AM UPDATE...TEMPERATURES DROPPED WELL INTO THE 50S THIS MORNING
BUT ARE SLOWLY STARTING TO WARM WITH THE SUNRISE. PATCHY FOG
ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD ALSO START TO DISSIPATE AS THE SUN COMES
UP. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER TO
ACCOUNT FOR LATEST TRENDS.

A MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDINESS TODAY...ALTHOUGH STILL EXPECT PEEKS OF SUNSHINE.
MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY...BUT THE SHORTWAVE COULD RESULT IN A
FEW PASSING SPRINKLES.  VERY LITTLE FORCING/INSTABILITY IS AVAILABLE
FOR MUCH MORE THAN THAT.  ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
TO RESULT IN LOW HUMIDITY WITH TEMPS A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE
JULY.  HIGH WILL TOP OUT IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...

A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS ALONG WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.  THE RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS SHOULD ALLOW LOWS
TO FALL BACK INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

THURSDAY...

POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL BE LIFTING INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON
THURSDAY. MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND
WESTERN ZONES WITH CAPES ON THE ORDER OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG.  0 TO 6
KM SHEAR WILL BE AROUND 40 KNOTS ALONG WITH 500 TEMPS AROUND
-15C...WHICH IS QUITE COLD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

ALL IN ALL...THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE TO OUR NORTH.
HOWEVER...ENOUGH PARAMETERS ARE IN PLACE FOR A FEW HIT AND MISS
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND ESPECIALLY IN
NORTHWEST MA/SOUTHWEST NH.  WHILE INSTABILITY IS VERY
MARGINAL...COLD POOL ALOFT/GOOD SHEAR MAY RESULT IN A FEW STRONG
STORMS PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.  BEST SHOT OF THAT IS
IN OUR FAR NORTHWEST ZONES.  HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S UNDER A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY
* STEADY RAIN LIKELY SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND
* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK

THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS OF COURSE BUT OVERALL THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN IS FAIRLY WELL MODELED.  USED A BLEND OF
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST. THE HIGH AMPLITUDE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. IS THE DOMINANT FEATURE
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE LONG TERM.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...THE COMBINATION OF A SHORTWAVE AND
ABNORMALLY COLD AIR AT 500MB MAY BE ENOUGH TO SPARK SOME SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ON FRIDAY...BUT MUCH OF THE DAY SHOULD BE
DRY.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE TROUGH SHIFTS A BIT TO THE WEST OVER THE
WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO MOVE UP THE EAST COAST.
THIS ALLOWS A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST TO SHIFT WEST OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  COMBINED WITH THE MOISTURE...EXPECT A FAIRLY
STEADY RAINFALL ACROSS AT LEAST A PORTION OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH PART OF THE WEEKEND.  THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS BOTH IN THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE FRONT AND IN THE TIMING SO
THIS COULD OCCUR SATURDAY...SUNDAY...OR A PORTION OF BOTH DAYS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...STATIONARY FRONT SLOWLY SHIFTS BACK OFFSHORE
BRINGING AN END TO THE STEADY RAINFALL. HOWEVER...LOW PRESSURE
MOVING THROUGH QUEBEC WILL BRING A COLD FRONT TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  EXPECT THE POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
PERIODICALLY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR CONDITIONS DESPITE SCATTERED TO BROKEN
DECK OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS.  SEA BREEZES DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.  A
FEW HIT AND MISS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR...WHICH MAY RESULT IN BRIEFLY LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR. LOW
PROBABILITY OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN -SHRA.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR NW...CHANCE
FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. MVFR CONDITIONS MORE
PROBABLE TOWARDS EASTERN MA/RI IN -SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WINDS/SEAS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SCA
LEVELS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY ALONG WITH GOOD VISIBILITIES. LOW RISK
OF MARGINAL 5 FOOT SWELL REACHING INTO THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH DISTANT LOW PRESSURE.
HOWEVER...BASED ON MOST WAVE GUIDANCE CAPPED SEAS AT 4 FEET FOR NOW
BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO RE-EVALUATE.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  QUIET BOATING
WEATHER EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  WINDS AND SEAS ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
HOWEVER...MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY WITH A STATIONARY FRONT
WAVERING OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/RLG
NEAR TERM...FRANK/RLG
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...FRANK/RLG
MARINE...FRANK/RLG




000
FXUS61 KBOX 301057
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
657 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY/PLEASANT WEATHER TODAY OTHER THAN PERHAPS A BRIEF PASSING
SPRINKLE.  A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ARE
POSSIBLE THU AND FRI...BUT MOST OF THE TIME WILL FEATURE DRY
WEATHER. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN
SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS CLOSE TO THE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
7 AM UPDATE...TEMPERATURES DROPPED WELL INTO THE 50S THIS MORNING
BUT ARE SLOWLY STARTING TO WARM WITH THE SUNRISE. PATCHY FOG
ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD ALSO START TO DISSIPATE AS THE SUN COMES
UP. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER TO
ACCOUNT FOR LATEST TRENDS.

A MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDINESS TODAY...ALTHOUGH STILL EXPECT PEEKS OF SUNSHINE.
MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY...BUT THE SHORTWAVE COULD RESULT IN A
FEW PASSING SPRINKLES.  VERY LITTLE FORCING/INSTABILITY IS AVAILABLE
FOR MUCH MORE THAN THAT.  ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
TO RESULT IN LOW HUMIDITY WITH TEMPS A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE
JULY.  HIGH WILL TOP OUT IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...

A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS ALONG WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.  THE RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS SHOULD ALLOW LOWS
TO FALL BACK INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

THURSDAY...

POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL BE LIFTING INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON
THURSDAY. MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND
WESTERN ZONES WITH CAPES ON THE ORDER OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG.  0 TO 6
KM SHEAR WILL BE AROUND 40 KNOTS ALONG WITH 500 TEMPS AROUND
-15C...WHICH IS QUITE COLD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

ALL IN ALL...THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE TO OUR NORTH.
HOWEVER...ENOUGH PARAMETERS ARE IN PLACE FOR A FEW HIT AND MISS
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND ESPECIALLY IN
NORTHWEST MA/SOUTHWEST NH.  WHILE INSTABILITY IS VERY
MARGINAL...COLD POOL ALOFT/GOOD SHEAR MAY RESULT IN A FEW STRONG
STORMS PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.  BEST SHOT OF THAT IS
IN OUR FAR NORTHWEST ZONES.  HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S UNDER A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY
* STEADY RAIN LIKELY SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND
* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK

THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS OF COURSE BUT OVERALL THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN IS FAIRLY WELL MODELED.  USED A BLEND OF
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST. THE HIGH AMPLITUDE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. IS THE DOMINANT FEATURE
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE LONG TERM.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...THE COMBINATION OF A SHORTWAVE AND
ABNORMALLY COLD AIR AT 500MB MAY BE ENOUGH TO SPARK SOME SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ON FRIDAY...BUT MUCH OF THE DAY SHOULD BE
DRY.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE TROUGH SHIFTS A BIT TO THE WEST OVER THE
WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO MOVE UP THE EAST COAST.
THIS ALLOWS A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST TO SHIFT WEST OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  COMBINED WITH THE MOISTURE...EXPECT A FAIRLY
STEADY RAINFALL ACROSS AT LEAST A PORTION OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH PART OF THE WEEKEND.  THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS BOTH IN THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE FRONT AND IN THE TIMING SO
THIS COULD OCCUR SATURDAY...SUNDAY...OR A PORTION OF BOTH DAYS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...STATIONARY FRONT SLOWLY SHIFTS BACK OFFSHORE
BRINGING AN END TO THE STEADY RAINFALL. HOWEVER...LOW PRESSURE
MOVING THROUGH QUEBEC WILL BRING A COLD FRONT TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  EXPECT THE POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
PERIODICALLY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR CONDITIONS DESPITE SCATTERED TO BROKEN
DECK OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS.  SEA BREEZES DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.  A
FEW HIT AND MISS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR...WHICH MAY RESULT IN BRIEFLY LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR. LOW
PROBABILITY OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN -SHRA.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR NW...CHANCE
FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. MVFR CONDITIONS MORE
PROBABLE TOWARDS EASTERN MA/RI IN -SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WINDS/SEAS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SCA
LEVELS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY ALONG WITH GOOD VISIBILITIES. LOW RISK
OF MARGINAL 5 FOOT SWELL REACHING INTO THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH DISTANT LOW PRESSURE.
HOWEVER...BASED ON MOST WAVE GUIDANCE CAPPED SEAS AT 4 FEET FOR NOW
BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO RE-EVALUATE.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  QUIET BOATING
WEATHER EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  WINDS AND SEAS ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
HOWEVER...MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY WITH A STATIONARY FRONT
WAVERING OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/RLG
NEAR TERM...FRANK/RLG
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...FRANK/RLG
MARINE...FRANK/RLG



000
FXUS61 KALY 301045
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
645 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE LOW IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY
AND THURSDAY. THE ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY DUE
TO A STRONGER DISTURBANCE. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MID DECK OF CLOUDS HOLDING ON OVER MOST OF AREA...THESE CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED DECREASE THIS MORNING. MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY COVER
TO ADDRESS THIS...PLUS UPDATED TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS.
OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT ANOTHER DAY OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
BUT NOT AS COOL AS TUESDAY AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER A DEEP
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG WITH THE
POSSIBILITY FOR THUNDER IS EXPECTED TODAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE ROTATES ABOUT THE UPPER LOW OVER
EASTERN CANADA. THE CHANCES WILL BE MAINLY FOR AREAS TO THE WEST
OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO FALL ABOUT
5 DEGREES SHORT NORMAL WITH READINGS MAINLY IN 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LINGERING CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
AND THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORT WAVE THIS EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AS A STRONGER SHORT WAVE ROTATES
ABOUT THE UPPER LOW. THIS PIECE OF ENERGY WILL CAUSE THE UPPER
LOW TO ALSO SHIFT SOUTHWARD. GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
TIMING OF THIS SHORT WAVE AND HAS IT MOVING OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND OFF TO OUR
NORTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. SO THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
WILL BE DURING THE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AND
ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. IT WILL BE
COOL WITH HIGHS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS SHORT WAVE A DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP FOR FRIDAY AS THE LOW BEGINS TO LIFTS NORTHWARD AND WEAKEN.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A WARMER DAY...HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER
80S...ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN DEW POINTS/HUMIDITY LEVELS. WITH
THE HEATING OF THE DAY CAN NOT RULE THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THE GENERAL SETUP THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL
FEATURE A LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH
THE TROUGH AXIS SITUATED TO THE WEST OF OUR AREA OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY...AND A STRONG RIDGE SITUATED EAST OF THE AREA
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE RESULT WILL BE A PERSISTENTLY MOIST
S-SW FLOW OF AIR OVER THE REGION.

PWAT VALUES WILL BE RISING OVER THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AREAS HAVING VALUES BETWEEN 1.50-1.90 INCHES BY
LATE SUNDAY. WITH A NEARBY STATIONARY SFC BOUNDARY LOCATED JUST
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...THERE WILL BE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY OVER THE WEEKEND...MAINLY IN THE AFTN AND
EVENING HOURS. ANY SHOWER/TSTM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. THUNDER MAY NOT BE OVERLY WIDESPREAD...DUE TO LIMITED
INSTABILITY THANKS TO ALL THE CLOUD COVER. TEMPS WILL BE HELD DOWN
SOMEWHAT DUE TO CLOUDS/POSSIBLE PRECIP....WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S
TO NEAR 80...AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN SITUATED JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD FOR MON/TUESDAY...WHICH WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. EVENTUALLY...THE TROUGH
TO OUR WEST WILL START TO WEAKEN...AND THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
START TO BECOME MORE ZONAL TOWARDS MID WEEK...AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. EVENTUALLY...THIS FRONT
WILL CLEAR OUR AREA...AND ALLOWING FOR HUMIDITY LEVELS TO DECREASE
SOMEWHAT.  WHILE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MID WEEK PERIOD...THIS SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM UP BY A FEW DEGREES...WITH LOW 80S FOR
VALLEY AREAS...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S...BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE AT ALL TERMINALS WITH BKN-OVC
CIGS AT 7-9 KFT AND NEARLY CALM WINDS. THESE CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
SWINGING AROUND THE MAIN TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN CANADA MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA.

ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF JUST SCT CLOUDS BY LATER THIS
MORNING...DIURNAL CU/STRATOCU AT 5-7 KFT WILL DEVELOP...ALLOWING FOR
BKN CIGS TO RETURN TO MOST SITES BY THE EARLY TO MID AFTN HOURS.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A BRIEF LIGHT RAIN SHOWER...BUT COVERAGE
LOOKS TOO SMALL TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. S-SW WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT...GENERALLY AROUND 5 KTS.

BKN CIGS LOOK TO CONTINUE RIGHT INTO TONIGHT. THESE CLOUDS IN PLACE
WILL PREVENT ANY RADIATIONAL FOG FROM OCCURRING...WITH CONTINUED VFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI-SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE LOW IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY
AND THURSDAY. THE ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY DUE
TO A STRONGER DISTURBANCE. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS
THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS LOW WILL WOBBLE OVER EASTERN CANADA AS
SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT AND WILL MOVE NORTH AND WEAK AS WE
HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WEEKEND SO STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA








000
FXUS61 KALY 301045
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
645 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE LOW IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY
AND THURSDAY. THE ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY DUE
TO A STRONGER DISTURBANCE. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MID DECK OF CLOUDS HOLDING ON OVER MOST OF AREA...THESE CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED DECREASE THIS MORNING. MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY COVER
TO ADDRESS THIS...PLUS UPDATED TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS.
OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT ANOTHER DAY OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
BUT NOT AS COOL AS TUESDAY AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER A DEEP
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG WITH THE
POSSIBILITY FOR THUNDER IS EXPECTED TODAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE ROTATES ABOUT THE UPPER LOW OVER
EASTERN CANADA. THE CHANCES WILL BE MAINLY FOR AREAS TO THE WEST
OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO FALL ABOUT
5 DEGREES SHORT NORMAL WITH READINGS MAINLY IN 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LINGERING CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
AND THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORT WAVE THIS EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AS A STRONGER SHORT WAVE ROTATES
ABOUT THE UPPER LOW. THIS PIECE OF ENERGY WILL CAUSE THE UPPER
LOW TO ALSO SHIFT SOUTHWARD. GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
TIMING OF THIS SHORT WAVE AND HAS IT MOVING OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND OFF TO OUR
NORTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. SO THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
WILL BE DURING THE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AND
ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. IT WILL BE
COOL WITH HIGHS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS SHORT WAVE A DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP FOR FRIDAY AS THE LOW BEGINS TO LIFTS NORTHWARD AND WEAKEN.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A WARMER DAY...HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER
80S...ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN DEW POINTS/HUMIDITY LEVELS. WITH
THE HEATING OF THE DAY CAN NOT RULE THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THE GENERAL SETUP THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL
FEATURE A LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH
THE TROUGH AXIS SITUATED TO THE WEST OF OUR AREA OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY...AND A STRONG RIDGE SITUATED EAST OF THE AREA
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE RESULT WILL BE A PERSISTENTLY MOIST
S-SW FLOW OF AIR OVER THE REGION.

PWAT VALUES WILL BE RISING OVER THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AREAS HAVING VALUES BETWEEN 1.50-1.90 INCHES BY
LATE SUNDAY. WITH A NEARBY STATIONARY SFC BOUNDARY LOCATED JUST
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...THERE WILL BE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY OVER THE WEEKEND...MAINLY IN THE AFTN AND
EVENING HOURS. ANY SHOWER/TSTM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. THUNDER MAY NOT BE OVERLY WIDESPREAD...DUE TO LIMITED
INSTABILITY THANKS TO ALL THE CLOUD COVER. TEMPS WILL BE HELD DOWN
SOMEWHAT DUE TO CLOUDS/POSSIBLE PRECIP....WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S
TO NEAR 80...AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN SITUATED JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD FOR MON/TUESDAY...WHICH WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. EVENTUALLY...THE TROUGH
TO OUR WEST WILL START TO WEAKEN...AND THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
START TO BECOME MORE ZONAL TOWARDS MID WEEK...AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. EVENTUALLY...THIS FRONT
WILL CLEAR OUR AREA...AND ALLOWING FOR HUMIDITY LEVELS TO DECREASE
SOMEWHAT.  WHILE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MID WEEK PERIOD...THIS SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM UP BY A FEW DEGREES...WITH LOW 80S FOR
VALLEY AREAS...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S...BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE AT ALL TERMINALS WITH BKN-OVC
CIGS AT 7-9 KFT AND NEARLY CALM WINDS. THESE CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
SWINGING AROUND THE MAIN TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN CANADA MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA.

ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF JUST SCT CLOUDS BY LATER THIS
MORNING...DIURNAL CU/STRATOCU AT 5-7 KFT WILL DEVELOP...ALLOWING FOR
BKN CIGS TO RETURN TO MOST SITES BY THE EARLY TO MID AFTN HOURS.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A BRIEF LIGHT RAIN SHOWER...BUT COVERAGE
LOOKS TOO SMALL TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. S-SW WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT...GENERALLY AROUND 5 KTS.

BKN CIGS LOOK TO CONTINUE RIGHT INTO TONIGHT. THESE CLOUDS IN PLACE
WILL PREVENT ANY RADIATIONAL FOG FROM OCCURRING...WITH CONTINUED VFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI-SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE LOW IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY
AND THURSDAY. THE ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY DUE
TO A STRONGER DISTURBANCE. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS
THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS LOW WILL WOBBLE OVER EASTERN CANADA AS
SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT AND WILL MOVE NORTH AND WEAK AS WE
HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WEEKEND SO STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA







000
FXUS61 KALY 300847
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
447 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE LOW IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY
AND THURSDAY. THE ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY DUE
TO A STRONGER DISTURBANCE. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ANOTHER DAY OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BUT NOT AS COOL AS TUESDAY
AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR THUNDER IS
EXPECTED TODAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SHORT
WAVE ROTATES ABOUT THE UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA. THE CHANCES
WILL BE MAINLY FOR AREAS TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.
HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO FALL ABOUT 5 DEGREES SHORT NORMAL WITH
READINGS MAINLY IN 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LINGERING CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
AND THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORT WAVE THIS EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AS A STRONGER SHORT WAVE ROTATES
ABOUT THE UPPER LOW. THIS PIECE OF ENERGY WILL CAUSE THE UPPER
LOW TO ALSO SHIFT SOUTHWARD. GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
TIMING OF THIS SHORT WAVE AND HAS IT MOVING OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND OFF TO OUR
NORTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. SO THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
WILL BE DURING THE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AND
ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. IT WILL BE
COOL WITH HIGHS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS SHORT WAVE A DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP FOR FRIDAY AS THE LOW BEGINS TO LIFTS NORTHWARD AND WEAKEN.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A WARMER DAY...HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER
80S...ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN DEW POINTS/HUMIDITY LEVELS. WITH
THE HEATING OF THE DAY CAN NOT RULE THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THE GENERAL SETUP THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL
FEATURE A LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH
THE TROUGH AXIS SITUATED TO THE WEST OF OUR AREA OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY...AND A STRONG RIDGE SITUATED EAST OF THE AREA
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE RESULT WILL BE A PERSISTENTLY MOIST
S-SW FLOW OF AIR OVER THE REGION.

PWAT VALUES WILL BE RISING OVER THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AREAS HAVING VALUES BETWEEN 1.50-1.90 INCHES BY
LATE SUNDAY. WITH A NEARBY STATIONARY SFC BOUNDARY LOCATED JUST
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...THERE WILL BE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY OVER THE WEEKEND...MAINLY IN THE AFTN AND
EVENING HOURS. ANY SHOWER/TSTM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. THUNDER MAY NOT BE OVERLY WIDESPREAD...DUE TO LIMITED
INSTABILITY THANKS TO ALL THE CLOUD COVER. TEMPS WILL BE HELD DOWN
SOMEWHAT DUE TO CLOUDS/POSSIBLE PRECIP....WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S
TO NEAR 80...AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN SITUATED JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD FOR MON/TUESDAY...WHICH WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. EVENTUALLY...THE TROUGH
TO OUR WEST WILL START TO WEAKEN...AND THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
START TO BECOME MORE ZONAL TOWARDS MID WEEK...AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. EVENTUALLY...THIS FRONT
WILL CLEAR OUR AREA...AND ALLOWING FOR HUMIDITY LEVELS TO DECREASE
SOMEWHAT.  WHILE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MID WEEK PERIOD...THIS SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM UP BY A FEW DEGREES...WITH LOW 80S FOR
VALLEY AREAS...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S...BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE AT ALL TERMINALS WITH BKN-OVC
CIGS AT 7-8 KFT AND NEARLY CALM WINDS. THESE CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. WITH A SMALL T-TD
SPREAD AT KGFL/KPSF...SOME IFR FOG MAY DEVELOP AT THESE SITES LATE
IN THE NIGHT TOWARDS DAYBREAK ONCE THE CLOUDS BREAKS.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE.

ANY FOG WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...ALLOWING FOR VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. DIURNAL CU/STRATOCU WILL
DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY...WITH MOST SITES BKN AT 5-7 KFT BY THE AFTN
HOURS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A LIGHT BRIEF RAIN SHOWER...BUT
COVERAGE LOOKS TOO SMALL TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. S-SW
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY AROUND 5 KTS.

BKN CIGS LOOK TO CONTINUE RIGHT INTO WED NIGHT. THESE CLOUDS IN
PLACE WILL PREVENT ANY RADIATIONAL FOG FROM OCCURRING...WITH
CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI-SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE LOW IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY
AND THURSDAY. THE ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY DUE
TO A STRONGER DISTURBANCE. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS
THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS LOW WILL WOBBLE OVER EASTERN CANADA AS
SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT AND WILL MOVE NORTH AND WEAK AS WE
HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WEEKEND SO STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA







000
FXUS61 KALY 300847
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
447 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE LOW IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY
AND THURSDAY. THE ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY DUE
TO A STRONGER DISTURBANCE. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ANOTHER DAY OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BUT NOT AS COOL AS TUESDAY
AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR THUNDER IS
EXPECTED TODAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SHORT
WAVE ROTATES ABOUT THE UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA. THE CHANCES
WILL BE MAINLY FOR AREAS TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.
HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO FALL ABOUT 5 DEGREES SHORT NORMAL WITH
READINGS MAINLY IN 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LINGERING CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
AND THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORT WAVE THIS EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AS A STRONGER SHORT WAVE ROTATES
ABOUT THE UPPER LOW. THIS PIECE OF ENERGY WILL CAUSE THE UPPER
LOW TO ALSO SHIFT SOUTHWARD. GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
TIMING OF THIS SHORT WAVE AND HAS IT MOVING OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND OFF TO OUR
NORTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. SO THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
WILL BE DURING THE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AND
ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. IT WILL BE
COOL WITH HIGHS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS SHORT WAVE A DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP FOR FRIDAY AS THE LOW BEGINS TO LIFTS NORTHWARD AND WEAKEN.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A WARMER DAY...HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER
80S...ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN DEW POINTS/HUMIDITY LEVELS. WITH
THE HEATING OF THE DAY CAN NOT RULE THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THE GENERAL SETUP THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL
FEATURE A LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH
THE TROUGH AXIS SITUATED TO THE WEST OF OUR AREA OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY...AND A STRONG RIDGE SITUATED EAST OF THE AREA
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE RESULT WILL BE A PERSISTENTLY MOIST
S-SW FLOW OF AIR OVER THE REGION.

PWAT VALUES WILL BE RISING OVER THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AREAS HAVING VALUES BETWEEN 1.50-1.90 INCHES BY
LATE SUNDAY. WITH A NEARBY STATIONARY SFC BOUNDARY LOCATED JUST
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...THERE WILL BE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY OVER THE WEEKEND...MAINLY IN THE AFTN AND
EVENING HOURS. ANY SHOWER/TSTM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. THUNDER MAY NOT BE OVERLY WIDESPREAD...DUE TO LIMITED
INSTABILITY THANKS TO ALL THE CLOUD COVER. TEMPS WILL BE HELD DOWN
SOMEWHAT DUE TO CLOUDS/POSSIBLE PRECIP....WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S
TO NEAR 80...AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN SITUATED JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD FOR MON/TUESDAY...WHICH WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. EVENTUALLY...THE TROUGH
TO OUR WEST WILL START TO WEAKEN...AND THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
START TO BECOME MORE ZONAL TOWARDS MID WEEK...AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. EVENTUALLY...THIS FRONT
WILL CLEAR OUR AREA...AND ALLOWING FOR HUMIDITY LEVELS TO DECREASE
SOMEWHAT.  WHILE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MID WEEK PERIOD...THIS SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM UP BY A FEW DEGREES...WITH LOW 80S FOR
VALLEY AREAS...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S...BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE AT ALL TERMINALS WITH BKN-OVC
CIGS AT 7-8 KFT AND NEARLY CALM WINDS. THESE CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. WITH A SMALL T-TD
SPREAD AT KGFL/KPSF...SOME IFR FOG MAY DEVELOP AT THESE SITES LATE
IN THE NIGHT TOWARDS DAYBREAK ONCE THE CLOUDS BREAKS.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE.

ANY FOG WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...ALLOWING FOR VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. DIURNAL CU/STRATOCU WILL
DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY...WITH MOST SITES BKN AT 5-7 KFT BY THE AFTN
HOURS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A LIGHT BRIEF RAIN SHOWER...BUT
COVERAGE LOOKS TOO SMALL TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. S-SW
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY AROUND 5 KTS.

BKN CIGS LOOK TO CONTINUE RIGHT INTO WED NIGHT. THESE CLOUDS IN
PLACE WILL PREVENT ANY RADIATIONAL FOG FROM OCCURRING...WITH
CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI-SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE LOW IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY
AND THURSDAY. THE ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY DUE
TO A STRONGER DISTURBANCE. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS
THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS LOW WILL WOBBLE OVER EASTERN CANADA AS
SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT AND WILL MOVE NORTH AND WEAK AS WE
HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WEEKEND SO STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA







000
FXUS61 KALY 300847
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
447 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE LOW IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY
AND THURSDAY. THE ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY DUE
TO A STRONGER DISTURBANCE. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ANOTHER DAY OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BUT NOT AS COOL AS TUESDAY
AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR THUNDER IS
EXPECTED TODAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SHORT
WAVE ROTATES ABOUT THE UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA. THE CHANCES
WILL BE MAINLY FOR AREAS TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.
HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO FALL ABOUT 5 DEGREES SHORT NORMAL WITH
READINGS MAINLY IN 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LINGERING CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
AND THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORT WAVE THIS EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AS A STRONGER SHORT WAVE ROTATES
ABOUT THE UPPER LOW. THIS PIECE OF ENERGY WILL CAUSE THE UPPER
LOW TO ALSO SHIFT SOUTHWARD. GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
TIMING OF THIS SHORT WAVE AND HAS IT MOVING OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND OFF TO OUR
NORTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. SO THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
WILL BE DURING THE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AND
ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. IT WILL BE
COOL WITH HIGHS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS SHORT WAVE A DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP FOR FRIDAY AS THE LOW BEGINS TO LIFTS NORTHWARD AND WEAKEN.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A WARMER DAY...HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER
80S...ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN DEW POINTS/HUMIDITY LEVELS. WITH
THE HEATING OF THE DAY CAN NOT RULE THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THE GENERAL SETUP THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL
FEATURE A LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH
THE TROUGH AXIS SITUATED TO THE WEST OF OUR AREA OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY...AND A STRONG RIDGE SITUATED EAST OF THE AREA
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE RESULT WILL BE A PERSISTENTLY MOIST
S-SW FLOW OF AIR OVER THE REGION.

PWAT VALUES WILL BE RISING OVER THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AREAS HAVING VALUES BETWEEN 1.50-1.90 INCHES BY
LATE SUNDAY. WITH A NEARBY STATIONARY SFC BOUNDARY LOCATED JUST
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...THERE WILL BE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY OVER THE WEEKEND...MAINLY IN THE AFTN AND
EVENING HOURS. ANY SHOWER/TSTM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. THUNDER MAY NOT BE OVERLY WIDESPREAD...DUE TO LIMITED
INSTABILITY THANKS TO ALL THE CLOUD COVER. TEMPS WILL BE HELD DOWN
SOMEWHAT DUE TO CLOUDS/POSSIBLE PRECIP....WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S
TO NEAR 80...AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN SITUATED JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD FOR MON/TUESDAY...WHICH WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. EVENTUALLY...THE TROUGH
TO OUR WEST WILL START TO WEAKEN...AND THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
START TO BECOME MORE ZONAL TOWARDS MID WEEK...AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. EVENTUALLY...THIS FRONT
WILL CLEAR OUR AREA...AND ALLOWING FOR HUMIDITY LEVELS TO DECREASE
SOMEWHAT.  WHILE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MID WEEK PERIOD...THIS SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM UP BY A FEW DEGREES...WITH LOW 80S FOR
VALLEY AREAS...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S...BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE AT ALL TERMINALS WITH BKN-OVC
CIGS AT 7-8 KFT AND NEARLY CALM WINDS. THESE CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. WITH A SMALL T-TD
SPREAD AT KGFL/KPSF...SOME IFR FOG MAY DEVELOP AT THESE SITES LATE
IN THE NIGHT TOWARDS DAYBREAK ONCE THE CLOUDS BREAKS.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE.

ANY FOG WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...ALLOWING FOR VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. DIURNAL CU/STRATOCU WILL
DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY...WITH MOST SITES BKN AT 5-7 KFT BY THE AFTN
HOURS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A LIGHT BRIEF RAIN SHOWER...BUT
COVERAGE LOOKS TOO SMALL TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. S-SW
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY AROUND 5 KTS.

BKN CIGS LOOK TO CONTINUE RIGHT INTO WED NIGHT. THESE CLOUDS IN
PLACE WILL PREVENT ANY RADIATIONAL FOG FROM OCCURRING...WITH
CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI-SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE LOW IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY
AND THURSDAY. THE ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY DUE
TO A STRONGER DISTURBANCE. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS
THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS LOW WILL WOBBLE OVER EASTERN CANADA AS
SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT AND WILL MOVE NORTH AND WEAK AS WE
HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WEEKEND SO STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA







000
FXUS61 KALY 300847
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
447 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE LOW IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY
AND THURSDAY. THE ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY DUE
TO A STRONGER DISTURBANCE. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ANOTHER DAY OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BUT NOT AS COOL AS TUESDAY
AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR THUNDER IS
EXPECTED TODAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SHORT
WAVE ROTATES ABOUT THE UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA. THE CHANCES
WILL BE MAINLY FOR AREAS TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.
HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO FALL ABOUT 5 DEGREES SHORT NORMAL WITH
READINGS MAINLY IN 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LINGERING CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
AND THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORT WAVE THIS EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AS A STRONGER SHORT WAVE ROTATES
ABOUT THE UPPER LOW. THIS PIECE OF ENERGY WILL CAUSE THE UPPER
LOW TO ALSO SHIFT SOUTHWARD. GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
TIMING OF THIS SHORT WAVE AND HAS IT MOVING OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND OFF TO OUR
NORTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. SO THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
WILL BE DURING THE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AND
ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. IT WILL BE
COOL WITH HIGHS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS SHORT WAVE A DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP FOR FRIDAY AS THE LOW BEGINS TO LIFTS NORTHWARD AND WEAKEN.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A WARMER DAY...HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER
80S...ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN DEW POINTS/HUMIDITY LEVELS. WITH
THE HEATING OF THE DAY CAN NOT RULE THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THE GENERAL SETUP THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL
FEATURE A LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH
THE TROUGH AXIS SITUATED TO THE WEST OF OUR AREA OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY...AND A STRONG RIDGE SITUATED EAST OF THE AREA
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE RESULT WILL BE A PERSISTENTLY MOIST
S-SW FLOW OF AIR OVER THE REGION.

PWAT VALUES WILL BE RISING OVER THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AREAS HAVING VALUES BETWEEN 1.50-1.90 INCHES BY
LATE SUNDAY. WITH A NEARBY STATIONARY SFC BOUNDARY LOCATED JUST
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...THERE WILL BE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY OVER THE WEEKEND...MAINLY IN THE AFTN AND
EVENING HOURS. ANY SHOWER/TSTM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. THUNDER MAY NOT BE OVERLY WIDESPREAD...DUE TO LIMITED
INSTABILITY THANKS TO ALL THE CLOUD COVER. TEMPS WILL BE HELD DOWN
SOMEWHAT DUE TO CLOUDS/POSSIBLE PRECIP....WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S
TO NEAR 80...AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN SITUATED JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD FOR MON/TUESDAY...WHICH WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. EVENTUALLY...THE TROUGH
TO OUR WEST WILL START TO WEAKEN...AND THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
START TO BECOME MORE ZONAL TOWARDS MID WEEK...AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. EVENTUALLY...THIS FRONT
WILL CLEAR OUR AREA...AND ALLOWING FOR HUMIDITY LEVELS TO DECREASE
SOMEWHAT.  WHILE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MID WEEK PERIOD...THIS SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM UP BY A FEW DEGREES...WITH LOW 80S FOR
VALLEY AREAS...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S...BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE AT ALL TERMINALS WITH BKN-OVC
CIGS AT 7-8 KFT AND NEARLY CALM WINDS. THESE CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. WITH A SMALL T-TD
SPREAD AT KGFL/KPSF...SOME IFR FOG MAY DEVELOP AT THESE SITES LATE
IN THE NIGHT TOWARDS DAYBREAK ONCE THE CLOUDS BREAKS.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE.

ANY FOG WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...ALLOWING FOR VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. DIURNAL CU/STRATOCU WILL
DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY...WITH MOST SITES BKN AT 5-7 KFT BY THE AFTN
HOURS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A LIGHT BRIEF RAIN SHOWER...BUT
COVERAGE LOOKS TOO SMALL TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. S-SW
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY AROUND 5 KTS.

BKN CIGS LOOK TO CONTINUE RIGHT INTO WED NIGHT. THESE CLOUDS IN
PLACE WILL PREVENT ANY RADIATIONAL FOG FROM OCCURRING...WITH
CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI-SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE LOW IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY
AND THURSDAY. THE ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY DUE
TO A STRONGER DISTURBANCE. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS
THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS LOW WILL WOBBLE OVER EASTERN CANADA AS
SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT AND WILL MOVE NORTH AND WEAK AS WE
HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WEEKEND SO STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA







000
FXUS61 KOKX 300826
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
426 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAK
INLAND LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ON THURSDAY AND REMAIN INTO
FRIDAY. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL ALSO INCREASE FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND DUE TO THE HIGH OFFSHORE. A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS LIKELY
FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BKN PATCHES OF ALTOCU INLAND...ALSO IN NYC AND PARTS OF LONG
ISLAND...SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THIS MORNING.

MODELS IN CLOSER AGREEMENT ON LIMITED MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES...SO FCST IS
DRY. CONVECTIVE TEMPS SHOULD HOWEVER BE REACHED...SO EXPECT SCT CU
THIS AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY BKN AT TIMES NW OF NYC.

EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S...CLOSE TO A GFS/NAM MOS
GUIDANCE BLEND AND CONSISTENT WITH MIXING UP TO 825 MB.

DEEPER MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD SLOWLY EDGE INTO AREAS FROM NYC
NORTH/WEST TONIGHT...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THERE AND PTCLDY
SKIES TO THE EAST. FORCING FOR SHOWERS WILL BE LACKING AS
SHORTWAVES PIVOTING AROUND A CLOSED UPPER LOW IN ONTARIO/QUEBEC
WILL BE WEAK AND PASSING JUST TO THE NW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
A BETTER AND MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL COME ON THU
AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE PIVOTS AROUND THE CLOSED LOW...AND THERE
MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED TSTM PER NAM FCST
SOUNDINGS. HAVE SCT COVERAGE ACROSS NEARLY THE ENTIRE CWA DESPITE
ONSHORE FLOW...AS MARINE LAYER LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH TO INHIBIT
CONVECTION ONLY ACROSS FAR ERN SECTIONS OF LONG ISLAND AND SE CT.
HIGHS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE 00Z MODEL SUITE SUGGESTS THE PREVIOUS FCST WAS ON TRACK...SO
ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE.

INSTABILITY ACROSS MAINLY THE INTERIOR FRI WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
PERHAPS A FEW SHRA AND TSTMS. LEFT THE LOW CHC POPS AT 30.
MARITIME LAYER OVERSPREADS THE ENTIRE CWA...SO TSTM CHCS APPEAR TO
DROP SIGNIFICANTLY BY EVE...EVEN FAR INLAND.

SUBTROPICAL TAP APPEARS LIKELY FOR THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER THE GFS
INDICATES THE BEST FORCING AND RESULTANT RAIN CHCS ON SUNDAY...
WITH THE ECMWF ON SAT. MAINTAINED AROUND 40 POP FOR THE WEEKEND...
ALTHOUGH IT DOES NOT APPEAR IT WILL RAIN ALL WEEKEND ATTM.
WITH PW INCREASING TO AROUND 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL...DID INCREASE
RAINFALL INTENSITY TO MDT.

COLD FROPA EXPECTED ON TUE PER THE 00Z DATA...BUT THE ASSOCIATED
PRE-FRONTAL TROF SHOULD USHER THE BEST MOISTURE OFFSHORE BEFORE...
POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS MON. FOR THIS REASON THE SCHC POPS ON MON
ARE APPROPRIATE...WITH A FEW ISOLD SHRA POSSIBLE IN THE DRIER
AIR MASS TUE AFTN.

TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD ARE CLOSE TO THE GRAPHICAL MOS...WITH THE
PREV 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SPREAD
THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION.

VFR. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH WED MORNING. SEA
BREEZES THEN DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND PASS THROUGH SOME TERMINALS.
WINDS GENERALLY SW TO S 10KT OR LESS.

BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS IN PATCHES ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD SCATTER OUT
BY SUNRISE.

..NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SEA BREEZE MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR IN
EITHER DIRECTION.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS MAY BE NECESSARY IF NE WIND OCCURS
EARLIER THAN FORECAST. SEA BREEZE TIMING MAY BE TOO EARLY BY AN HOUR
OR TWO.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO SEA BREEZE FORECAST BUT AMENDMENTS MAY BE
NEEDED IF SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE TIMING MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR IN
EITHER DIRECTION.


.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDS NIGHT...VFR.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS.
.SATURDAY-SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR...IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SCT
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BLW SCA LVLS FRI THRU THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY
SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING AND TRACK OF
UPR LVL FEATURES. SOME AREAS OF MINOR FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE
WHERE THESE OCCUR.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...LN
MARINE...JMC/GOODMAN/MET/DW
HYDROLOGY...JMC/GOODMAN









000
FXUS61 KOKX 300826
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
426 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAK
INLAND LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ON THURSDAY AND REMAIN INTO
FRIDAY. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL ALSO INCREASE FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND DUE TO THE HIGH OFFSHORE. A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS LIKELY
FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BKN PATCHES OF ALTOCU INLAND...ALSO IN NYC AND PARTS OF LONG
ISLAND...SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THIS MORNING.

MODELS IN CLOSER AGREEMENT ON LIMITED MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES...SO FCST IS
DRY. CONVECTIVE TEMPS SHOULD HOWEVER BE REACHED...SO EXPECT SCT CU
THIS AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY BKN AT TIMES NW OF NYC.

EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S...CLOSE TO A GFS/NAM MOS
GUIDANCE BLEND AND CONSISTENT WITH MIXING UP TO 825 MB.

DEEPER MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD SLOWLY EDGE INTO AREAS FROM NYC
NORTH/WEST TONIGHT...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THERE AND PTCLDY
SKIES TO THE EAST. FORCING FOR SHOWERS WILL BE LACKING AS
SHORTWAVES PIVOTING AROUND A CLOSED UPPER LOW IN ONTARIO/QUEBEC
WILL BE WEAK AND PASSING JUST TO THE NW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
A BETTER AND MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL COME ON THU
AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE PIVOTS AROUND THE CLOSED LOW...AND THERE
MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED TSTM PER NAM FCST
SOUNDINGS. HAVE SCT COVERAGE ACROSS NEARLY THE ENTIRE CWA DESPITE
ONSHORE FLOW...AS MARINE LAYER LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH TO INHIBIT
CONVECTION ONLY ACROSS FAR ERN SECTIONS OF LONG ISLAND AND SE CT.
HIGHS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE 00Z MODEL SUITE SUGGESTS THE PREVIOUS FCST WAS ON TRACK...SO
ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE.

INSTABILITY ACROSS MAINLY THE INTERIOR FRI WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
PERHAPS A FEW SHRA AND TSTMS. LEFT THE LOW CHC POPS AT 30.
MARITIME LAYER OVERSPREADS THE ENTIRE CWA...SO TSTM CHCS APPEAR TO
DROP SIGNIFICANTLY BY EVE...EVEN FAR INLAND.

SUBTROPICAL TAP APPEARS LIKELY FOR THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER THE GFS
INDICATES THE BEST FORCING AND RESULTANT RAIN CHCS ON SUNDAY...
WITH THE ECMWF ON SAT. MAINTAINED AROUND 40 POP FOR THE WEEKEND...
ALTHOUGH IT DOES NOT APPEAR IT WILL RAIN ALL WEEKEND ATTM.
WITH PW INCREASING TO AROUND 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL...DID INCREASE
RAINFALL INTENSITY TO MDT.

COLD FROPA EXPECTED ON TUE PER THE 00Z DATA...BUT THE ASSOCIATED
PRE-FRONTAL TROF SHOULD USHER THE BEST MOISTURE OFFSHORE BEFORE...
POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS MON. FOR THIS REASON THE SCHC POPS ON MON
ARE APPROPRIATE...WITH A FEW ISOLD SHRA POSSIBLE IN THE DRIER
AIR MASS TUE AFTN.

TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD ARE CLOSE TO THE GRAPHICAL MOS...WITH THE
PREV 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SPREAD
THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION.

VFR. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH WED MORNING. SEA
BREEZES THEN DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND PASS THROUGH SOME TERMINALS.
WINDS GENERALLY SW TO S 10KT OR LESS.

BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS IN PATCHES ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD SCATTER OUT
BY SUNRISE.

..NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SEA BREEZE MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR IN
EITHER DIRECTION.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS MAY BE NECESSARY IF NE WIND OCCURS
EARLIER THAN FORECAST. SEA BREEZE TIMING MAY BE TOO EARLY BY AN HOUR
OR TWO.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO SEA BREEZE FORECAST BUT AMENDMENTS MAY BE
NEEDED IF SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE TIMING MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR IN
EITHER DIRECTION.


.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDS NIGHT...VFR.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS.
.SATURDAY-SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR...IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SCT
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BLW SCA LVLS FRI THRU THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY
SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING AND TRACK OF
UPR LVL FEATURES. SOME AREAS OF MINOR FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE
WHERE THESE OCCUR.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...LN
MARINE...JMC/GOODMAN/MET/DW
HYDROLOGY...JMC/GOODMAN








000
FXUS61 KOKX 300806 CCA
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED SYNOPSIS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
404 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAK
INLAND LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ON THURSDAY AND REMAIN INTO
FRIDAY. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL ALSO INCREASE FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND DUE TO THE HIGH OFFSHORE. A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS LIKELY
FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BKN PATCHES OF ALTOCU INLAND...ALSO IN NYC AND PARTS OF LONG
ISLAND...SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THIS MORNING.

MODELS IN CLOSER AGREEMENT ON LIMITED MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES...SO FCST IS
DRY. CONVECTIVE TEMPS SHOULD HOWEVER BE REACHED...SO EXPECT SCT CU
THIS AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY BKN AT TIMES NW OF NYC.

EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S...CLOSE TO A GFS/NAM MOS
GUIDANCE BLEND AND CONSISTENT WITH MIXING UP TO 825 MB.

DEEPER MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD SLOWLY EDGE INTO AREAS FROM NYC
NORTH/WEST TONIGHT...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THERE AND PTCLDY
SKIES TO THE EAST. FORCING FOR SHOWERS WILL BE LACKING AS
SHORTWAVES PIVOTING AROUND A CLOSED UPPER LOW IN ONTARIO/QUEBEC
WILL BE WEAK AND PASSING JUST TO THE NW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
A BETTER AND MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL COME ON THU
AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE PIVOTS AROUND THE CLOSED LOW...AND THERE
MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED TSTM PER NAM FCST
SOUNDINGS. HAVE SCT COVERAGE ACROSS NEARLY THE ENTIRE CWA DESPITE
ONSHORE FLOW...AS MARINE LAYER LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH TO INHIBIT
CONVECTION ONLY ACROSS FAR ERN SECTIONS OF LONG ISLAND AND SE CT.
HIGHS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE 00Z MODEL SUITE SUGGESTS THE PREVIOUS FCST WAS ON TRACK...SO
ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE.

INSTABILITY ACROSS MAINLY THE INTERIOR FRI WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
PERHAPS A FEW SHRA AND TSTMS. LEFT THE LOW CHC POPS AT 30.
MARITIME LAYER OVERSPREADS THE ENTIRE CWA...SO TSTM CHCS APPEAR TO
DROP SIGNIFICANTLY BY EVE...EVEN FAR INLAND.

SUBTROPICAL TAP APPEARS LIKELY FOR THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER THE GFS
INDICATES THE BEST FORCING AND RESULTANT RAIN CHCS ON SUNDAY...
WITH THE ECMWF ON SAT. MAINTAINED AROUND 40 POP FOR THE WEEKEND...
ALTHOUGH IT DOES NOT APPEAR IT WILL RAIN ALL WEEKEND ATTM.
WITH PW INCREASING TO AROUND 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL...DID INCREASE
RAINFALL INTENSITY TO MDT.

COLD FROPA EXPECTED ON TUE PER THE 00Z DATA...BUT THE ASSOCIATED
PRE-FRONTAL TROF SHOULD USHER THE BEST MOISTURE OFFSHORE BEFORE...
POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS MON. FOR THIS REASON THE SCHC POPS ON MON
ARE APPROPRIATE...WITH A FEW ISOLD SHRA POSSIBLE IN THE DRIER
AIR MASS TUE AFTN.

TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD ARE CLOSE TO THE GRAPHICAL MOS...WITH THE
PREV 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SPREAD
THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION.

VFR. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT...LASTING INTO WEDS MORNING.
SEA BREEZES THEN DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND PASS THROUGH SOME
TERMINALS. WINDS GENERALLY SW TO S 10KT OR LESS.


.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WED NIGHT...VFR.
.THU-FRI...ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS.
.SAT-SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR...IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SCT SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BLW SCA LVLS FRI THRU THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY
SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING AND TRACK OF
UPR LVL FEATURES. SOME AREAS OF MINOR FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE
WHERE THESE OCCUR.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/MARINE...GOODMAN/JMC
NEAR TERM/SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM/HYDROLOGY...JMC
AVIATION...LN









000
FXUS61 KOKX 300806 CCA
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED SYNOPSIS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
404 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAK
INLAND LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ON THURSDAY AND REMAIN INTO
FRIDAY. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL ALSO INCREASE FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND DUE TO THE HIGH OFFSHORE. A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS LIKELY
FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BKN PATCHES OF ALTOCU INLAND...ALSO IN NYC AND PARTS OF LONG
ISLAND...SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THIS MORNING.

MODELS IN CLOSER AGREEMENT ON LIMITED MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES...SO FCST IS
DRY. CONVECTIVE TEMPS SHOULD HOWEVER BE REACHED...SO EXPECT SCT CU
THIS AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY BKN AT TIMES NW OF NYC.

EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S...CLOSE TO A GFS/NAM MOS
GUIDANCE BLEND AND CONSISTENT WITH MIXING UP TO 825 MB.

DEEPER MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD SLOWLY EDGE INTO AREAS FROM NYC
NORTH/WEST TONIGHT...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THERE AND PTCLDY
SKIES TO THE EAST. FORCING FOR SHOWERS WILL BE LACKING AS
SHORTWAVES PIVOTING AROUND A CLOSED UPPER LOW IN ONTARIO/QUEBEC
WILL BE WEAK AND PASSING JUST TO THE NW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
A BETTER AND MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL COME ON THU
AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE PIVOTS AROUND THE CLOSED LOW...AND THERE
MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED TSTM PER NAM FCST
SOUNDINGS. HAVE SCT COVERAGE ACROSS NEARLY THE ENTIRE CWA DESPITE
ONSHORE FLOW...AS MARINE LAYER LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH TO INHIBIT
CONVECTION ONLY ACROSS FAR ERN SECTIONS OF LONG ISLAND AND SE CT.
HIGHS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE 00Z MODEL SUITE SUGGESTS THE PREVIOUS FCST WAS ON TRACK...SO
ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE.

INSTABILITY ACROSS MAINLY THE INTERIOR FRI WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
PERHAPS A FEW SHRA AND TSTMS. LEFT THE LOW CHC POPS AT 30.
MARITIME LAYER OVERSPREADS THE ENTIRE CWA...SO TSTM CHCS APPEAR TO
DROP SIGNIFICANTLY BY EVE...EVEN FAR INLAND.

SUBTROPICAL TAP APPEARS LIKELY FOR THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER THE GFS
INDICATES THE BEST FORCING AND RESULTANT RAIN CHCS ON SUNDAY...
WITH THE ECMWF ON SAT. MAINTAINED AROUND 40 POP FOR THE WEEKEND...
ALTHOUGH IT DOES NOT APPEAR IT WILL RAIN ALL WEEKEND ATTM.
WITH PW INCREASING TO AROUND 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL...DID INCREASE
RAINFALL INTENSITY TO MDT.

COLD FROPA EXPECTED ON TUE PER THE 00Z DATA...BUT THE ASSOCIATED
PRE-FRONTAL TROF SHOULD USHER THE BEST MOISTURE OFFSHORE BEFORE...
POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS MON. FOR THIS REASON THE SCHC POPS ON MON
ARE APPROPRIATE...WITH A FEW ISOLD SHRA POSSIBLE IN THE DRIER
AIR MASS TUE AFTN.

TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD ARE CLOSE TO THE GRAPHICAL MOS...WITH THE
PREV 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SPREAD
THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION.

VFR. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT...LASTING INTO WEDS MORNING.
SEA BREEZES THEN DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND PASS THROUGH SOME
TERMINALS. WINDS GENERALLY SW TO S 10KT OR LESS.


.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WED NIGHT...VFR.
.THU-FRI...ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS.
.SAT-SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR...IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SCT SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BLW SCA LVLS FRI THRU THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY
SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING AND TRACK OF
UPR LVL FEATURES. SOME AREAS OF MINOR FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE
WHERE THESE OCCUR.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/MARINE...GOODMAN/JMC
NEAR TERM/SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM/HYDROLOGY...JMC
AVIATION...LN









000
FXUS61 KOKX 300806 CCA
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED SYNOPSIS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
404 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAK
INLAND LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ON THURSDAY AND REMAIN INTO
FRIDAY. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL ALSO INCREASE FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND DUE TO THE HIGH OFFSHORE. A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS LIKELY
FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BKN PATCHES OF ALTOCU INLAND...ALSO IN NYC AND PARTS OF LONG
ISLAND...SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THIS MORNING.

MODELS IN CLOSER AGREEMENT ON LIMITED MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES...SO FCST IS
DRY. CONVECTIVE TEMPS SHOULD HOWEVER BE REACHED...SO EXPECT SCT CU
THIS AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY BKN AT TIMES NW OF NYC.

EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S...CLOSE TO A GFS/NAM MOS
GUIDANCE BLEND AND CONSISTENT WITH MIXING UP TO 825 MB.

DEEPER MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD SLOWLY EDGE INTO AREAS FROM NYC
NORTH/WEST TONIGHT...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THERE AND PTCLDY
SKIES TO THE EAST. FORCING FOR SHOWERS WILL BE LACKING AS
SHORTWAVES PIVOTING AROUND A CLOSED UPPER LOW IN ONTARIO/QUEBEC
WILL BE WEAK AND PASSING JUST TO THE NW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
A BETTER AND MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL COME ON THU
AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE PIVOTS AROUND THE CLOSED LOW...AND THERE
MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED TSTM PER NAM FCST
SOUNDINGS. HAVE SCT COVERAGE ACROSS NEARLY THE ENTIRE CWA DESPITE
ONSHORE FLOW...AS MARINE LAYER LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH TO INHIBIT
CONVECTION ONLY ACROSS FAR ERN SECTIONS OF LONG ISLAND AND SE CT.
HIGHS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE 00Z MODEL SUITE SUGGESTS THE PREVIOUS FCST WAS ON TRACK...SO
ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE.

INSTABILITY ACROSS MAINLY THE INTERIOR FRI WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
PERHAPS A FEW SHRA AND TSTMS. LEFT THE LOW CHC POPS AT 30.
MARITIME LAYER OVERSPREADS THE ENTIRE CWA...SO TSTM CHCS APPEAR TO
DROP SIGNIFICANTLY BY EVE...EVEN FAR INLAND.

SUBTROPICAL TAP APPEARS LIKELY FOR THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER THE GFS
INDICATES THE BEST FORCING AND RESULTANT RAIN CHCS ON SUNDAY...
WITH THE ECMWF ON SAT. MAINTAINED AROUND 40 POP FOR THE WEEKEND...
ALTHOUGH IT DOES NOT APPEAR IT WILL RAIN ALL WEEKEND ATTM.
WITH PW INCREASING TO AROUND 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL...DID INCREASE
RAINFALL INTENSITY TO MDT.

COLD FROPA EXPECTED ON TUE PER THE 00Z DATA...BUT THE ASSOCIATED
PRE-FRONTAL TROF SHOULD USHER THE BEST MOISTURE OFFSHORE BEFORE...
POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS MON. FOR THIS REASON THE SCHC POPS ON MON
ARE APPROPRIATE...WITH A FEW ISOLD SHRA POSSIBLE IN THE DRIER
AIR MASS TUE AFTN.

TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD ARE CLOSE TO THE GRAPHICAL MOS...WITH THE
PREV 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SPREAD
THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION.

VFR. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT...LASTING INTO WEDS MORNING.
SEA BREEZES THEN DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND PASS THROUGH SOME
TERMINALS. WINDS GENERALLY SW TO S 10KT OR LESS.


.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WED NIGHT...VFR.
.THU-FRI...ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS.
.SAT-SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR...IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SCT SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BLW SCA LVLS FRI THRU THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY
SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING AND TRACK OF
UPR LVL FEATURES. SOME AREAS OF MINOR FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE
WHERE THESE OCCUR.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/MARINE...GOODMAN/JMC
NEAR TERM/SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM/HYDROLOGY...JMC
AVIATION...LN









000
FXUS61 KOKX 300806 CCA
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED SYNOPSIS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
404 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAK
INLAND LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ON THURSDAY AND REMAIN INTO
FRIDAY. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL ALSO INCREASE FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND DUE TO THE HIGH OFFSHORE. A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS LIKELY
FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BKN PATCHES OF ALTOCU INLAND...ALSO IN NYC AND PARTS OF LONG
ISLAND...SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THIS MORNING.

MODELS IN CLOSER AGREEMENT ON LIMITED MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES...SO FCST IS
DRY. CONVECTIVE TEMPS SHOULD HOWEVER BE REACHED...SO EXPECT SCT CU
THIS AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY BKN AT TIMES NW OF NYC.

EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S...CLOSE TO A GFS/NAM MOS
GUIDANCE BLEND AND CONSISTENT WITH MIXING UP TO 825 MB.

DEEPER MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD SLOWLY EDGE INTO AREAS FROM NYC
NORTH/WEST TONIGHT...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THERE AND PTCLDY
SKIES TO THE EAST. FORCING FOR SHOWERS WILL BE LACKING AS
SHORTWAVES PIVOTING AROUND A CLOSED UPPER LOW IN ONTARIO/QUEBEC
WILL BE WEAK AND PASSING JUST TO THE NW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
A BETTER AND MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL COME ON THU
AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE PIVOTS AROUND THE CLOSED LOW...AND THERE
MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED TSTM PER NAM FCST
SOUNDINGS. HAVE SCT COVERAGE ACROSS NEARLY THE ENTIRE CWA DESPITE
ONSHORE FLOW...AS MARINE LAYER LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH TO INHIBIT
CONVECTION ONLY ACROSS FAR ERN SECTIONS OF LONG ISLAND AND SE CT.
HIGHS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE 00Z MODEL SUITE SUGGESTS THE PREVIOUS FCST WAS ON TRACK...SO
ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE.

INSTABILITY ACROSS MAINLY THE INTERIOR FRI WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
PERHAPS A FEW SHRA AND TSTMS. LEFT THE LOW CHC POPS AT 30.
MARITIME LAYER OVERSPREADS THE ENTIRE CWA...SO TSTM CHCS APPEAR TO
DROP SIGNIFICANTLY BY EVE...EVEN FAR INLAND.

SUBTROPICAL TAP APPEARS LIKELY FOR THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER THE GFS
INDICATES THE BEST FORCING AND RESULTANT RAIN CHCS ON SUNDAY...
WITH THE ECMWF ON SAT. MAINTAINED AROUND 40 POP FOR THE WEEKEND...
ALTHOUGH IT DOES NOT APPEAR IT WILL RAIN ALL WEEKEND ATTM.
WITH PW INCREASING TO AROUND 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL...DID INCREASE
RAINFALL INTENSITY TO MDT.

COLD FROPA EXPECTED ON TUE PER THE 00Z DATA...BUT THE ASSOCIATED
PRE-FRONTAL TROF SHOULD USHER THE BEST MOISTURE OFFSHORE BEFORE...
POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS MON. FOR THIS REASON THE SCHC POPS ON MON
ARE APPROPRIATE...WITH A FEW ISOLD SHRA POSSIBLE IN THE DRIER
AIR MASS TUE AFTN.

TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD ARE CLOSE TO THE GRAPHICAL MOS...WITH THE
PREV 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SPREAD
THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION.

VFR. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT...LASTING INTO WEDS MORNING.
SEA BREEZES THEN DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND PASS THROUGH SOME
TERMINALS. WINDS GENERALLY SW TO S 10KT OR LESS.


.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WED NIGHT...VFR.
.THU-FRI...ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS.
.SAT-SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR...IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SCT SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BLW SCA LVLS FRI THRU THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY
SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING AND TRACK OF
UPR LVL FEATURES. SOME AREAS OF MINOR FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE
WHERE THESE OCCUR.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/MARINE...GOODMAN/JMC
NEAR TERM/SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM/HYDROLOGY...JMC
AVIATION...LN









000
FXUS61 KOKX 300804
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
404 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD OFFSHORE THROUGH TONIGHT.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL GRADUALLY WORK
WEST TOWARD THE COAST THROUGH THIS WEEKEND..WITH MULTIPLE WAVES OF
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG IT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BKN PATCHES OF ALTOCU INLAND...ALSO IN NYC AND PARTS OF LONG
ISLAND...SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THIS MORNING.

MODELS IN CLOSER AGREEMENT ON LIMITED MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES...SO FCST IS
DRY. CONVECTIVE TEMPS SHOULD HOWEVER BE REACHED...SO EXPECT SCT CU
THIS AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY BKN AT TIMES NW OF NYC.

EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S...CLOSE TO A GFS/NAM MOS
GUIDANCE BLEND AND CONSISTENT WITH MIXING UP TO 825 MB.

DEEPER MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD SLOWLY EDGE INTO AREAS FROM NYC
NORTH/WEST TONIGHT...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THERE AND PTCLDY
SKIES TO THE EAST. FORCING FOR SHOWERS WILL BE LACKING AS
SHORTWAVES PIVOTING AROUND A CLOSED UPPER LOW IN ONTARIO/QUEBEC
WILL BE WEAK AND PASSING JUST TO THE NW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
A BETTER AND MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL COME ON THU
AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE PIVOTS AROUND THE CLOSED LOW...AND THERE
MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED TSTM PER NAM FCST
SOUNDINGS. HAVE SCT COVERAGE ACROSS NEARLY THE ENTIRE CWA DESPITE
ONSHORE FLOW...AS MARINE LAYER LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH TO INHIBIT
CONVECTION ONLY ACROSS FAR ERN SECTIONS OF LONG ISLAND AND SE CT.
HIGHS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE 00Z MODEL SUITE SUGGESTS THE PREVIOUS FCST WAS ON TRACK...SO
ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE.

INSTABILITY ACROSS MAINLY THE INTERIOR FRI WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
PERHAPS A FEW SHRA AND TSTMS. LEFT THE LOW CHC POPS AT 30.
MARITIME LAYER OVERSPREADS THE ENTIRE CWA...SO TSTM CHCS APPEAR TO
DROP SIGNIFICANTLY BY EVE...EVEN FAR INLAND.

SUBTROPICAL TAP APPEARS LIKELY FOR THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER THE GFS
INDICATES THE BEST FORCING AND RESULTANT RAIN CHCS ON SUNDAY...
WITH THE ECMWF ON SAT. MAINTAINED AROUND 40 POP FOR THE WEEKEND...
ALTHOUGH IT DOES NOT APPEAR IT WILL RAIN ALL WEEKEND ATTM.
WITH PW INCREASING TO AROUND 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL...DID INCREASE
RAINFALL INTENSITY TO MDT.

COLD FROPA EXPECTED ON TUE PER THE 00Z DATA...BUT THE ASSOCIATED
PRE-FRONTAL TROF SHOULD USHER THE BEST MOISTURE OFFSHORE BEFORE...
POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS MON. FOR THIS REASON THE SCHC POPS ON MON
ARE APPROPRIATE...WITH A FEW ISOLD SHRA POSSIBLE IN THE DRIER
AIR MASS TUE AFTN.

TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD ARE CLOSE TO THE GRAPHICAL MOS...WITH THE
PREV 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SPREAD
THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION.

VFR. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT...LASTING INTO WEDS MORNING.
SEA BREEZES THEN DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND PASS THROUGH SOME
TERMINALS. WINDS GENERALLY SW TO S 10KT OR LESS.


.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WED NIGHT...VFR.
.THU-FRI...ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS.
.SAT-SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR...IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SCT SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BLW SCA LVLS FRI THRU THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY
SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING AND TRACK OF
UPR LVL FEATURES. SOME AREAS OF MINOR FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE
WHERE THESE OCCUR.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/MARINE...GOODMAN/JMC
NEAR TERM/SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM/HYDROLOGY...JMC
AVIATION...LN







000
FXUS61 KBOX 300758
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
358 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY/PLEASANT WEATHER TODAY OTHER THAN PERHAPS A BRIEF PASSING
SPRINKLE.  A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ARE
POSSIBLE THU AND FRI...BUT MOST OF THE TIME WILL FEATURE DRY
WEATHER. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN
SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS CLOSE TO THE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDINESS TODAY...ALTHOUGH STILL EXPECT PEEKS OF SUNSHINE.
MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY...BUT THE SHORTWAVE COULD RESULT IN A
FEW PASSING SPRINKLES.  VERY LITTLE FORCING/INSTABILITY IS AVAILABLE
FOR MUCH MORE THAN THAT.  ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
TO RESULT IN LOW HUMIDITY WITH TEMPS A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE
JULY.  HIGH WILL TOP OUT IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...

A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS ALONG WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.  THE RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS SHOULD ALLOW LOWS
TO FALL BACK INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

THURSDAY...

POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL BE LIFTING INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON
THURSDAY. MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND
WESTERN ZONES WITH CAPES ON THE ORDER OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG.  0 TO 6
KM SHEAR WILL BE AROUND 40 KNOTS ALONG WITH 500 TEMPS AROUND
-15C...WHICH IS QUITE COLD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

ALL IN ALL...THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE TO OUR NORTH.
HOWEVER...ENOUGH PARAMETERS ARE IN PLACE FOR A FEW HIT AND MISS
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND ESPECIALLY IN
NORTHWEST MA/SOUTHWEST NH.  WHILE INSTABILITY IS VERY
MARGINAL...COLD POOL ALOFT/GOOD SHEAR MAY RESULT IN A FEW STRONG
STORMS PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.  BEST SHOT OF THAT IS
IN OUR FAR NORTHWEST ZONES.  HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S UNDER A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY
* STEADY RAIN LIKELY SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND
* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK

THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS OF COURSE BUT OVERALL THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN IS FAIRLY WELL MODELED.  USED A BLEND OF
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST. THE HIGH AMPLITUDE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. IS THE DOMINANT FEATURE
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE LONG TERM.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...THE COMBINATION OF A SHORTWAVE AND
ABNORMALLY COLD AIR AT 500MB MAY BE ENOUGH TO SPARK SOME SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ON FRIDAY...BUT MUCH OF THE DAY SHOULD BE
DRY.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE TROUGH SHIFTS A BIT TO THE WEST OVER THE
WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO MOVE UP THE EAST COAST.
THIS ALLOWS A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST TO SHIFT WEST OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  COMBINED WITH THE MOISTURE...EXPECT A FAIRLY
STEADY RAINFALL ACROSS AT LEAST A PORTION OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH PART OF THE WEEKEND.  THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS BOTH IN THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE FRONT AND IN THE TIMING SO
THIS COULD OCCUR SATURDAY...SUNDAY...OR A PORTION OF BOTH DAYS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...STATIONARY FRONT SLOWLY SHIFTS BACK OFFSHORE
BRINGING AN END TO THE STEADY RAINFALL. HOWEVER...LOW PRESSURE
MOVING THROUGH QUEBEC WILL BRING A COLD FRONT TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  EXPECT THE POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
PERIODICALLY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR CONDITIONS DESPITE SCATTERED TO BROKEN
DECK OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS.  SEA BREEZES DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.  A
FEW HIT AND MISS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR...WHICH MAY RESULT IN BRIEFLY LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR. LOW
PROBABILITY OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN -SHRA.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR NW...CHANCE
FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. MVFR CONDITIONS MORE
PROBABLE TOWARDS EASTERN MA/RI IN -SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WINDS/SEAS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SCA
LEVELS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY ALONG WITH GOOD VISIBILITIES. LOW RISK
OF MARGINAL 5 FOOT SWELL REACHING INTO THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH DISTANT LOW PRESSURE.
HOWEVER...BASED ON MOST WAVE GUIDANCE CAPPED SEAS AT 4 FEET FOR NOW
BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO RE-EVALUATE.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  QUIET BOATING
WEATHER EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  WINDS AND SEAS ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
HOWEVER...MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY WITH A STATIONARY FRONT
WAVERING OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/RLG
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...FRANK/RLG
MARINE...FRANK/RLG



000
FXUS61 KBOX 300758
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
358 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY/PLEASANT WEATHER TODAY OTHER THAN PERHAPS A BRIEF PASSING
SPRINKLE.  A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ARE
POSSIBLE THU AND FRI...BUT MOST OF THE TIME WILL FEATURE DRY
WEATHER. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN
SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS CLOSE TO THE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDINESS TODAY...ALTHOUGH STILL EXPECT PEEKS OF SUNSHINE.
MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY...BUT THE SHORTWAVE COULD RESULT IN A
FEW PASSING SPRINKLES.  VERY LITTLE FORCING/INSTABILITY IS AVAILABLE
FOR MUCH MORE THAN THAT.  ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
TO RESULT IN LOW HUMIDITY WITH TEMPS A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE
JULY.  HIGH WILL TOP OUT IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...

A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS ALONG WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.  THE RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS SHOULD ALLOW LOWS
TO FALL BACK INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

THURSDAY...

POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL BE LIFTING INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON
THURSDAY. MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND
WESTERN ZONES WITH CAPES ON THE ORDER OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG.  0 TO 6
KM SHEAR WILL BE AROUND 40 KNOTS ALONG WITH 500 TEMPS AROUND
-15C...WHICH IS QUITE COLD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

ALL IN ALL...THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE TO OUR NORTH.
HOWEVER...ENOUGH PARAMETERS ARE IN PLACE FOR A FEW HIT AND MISS
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND ESPECIALLY IN
NORTHWEST MA/SOUTHWEST NH.  WHILE INSTABILITY IS VERY
MARGINAL...COLD POOL ALOFT/GOOD SHEAR MAY RESULT IN A FEW STRONG
STORMS PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.  BEST SHOT OF THAT IS
IN OUR FAR NORTHWEST ZONES.  HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S UNDER A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY
* STEADY RAIN LIKELY SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND
* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK

THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS OF COURSE BUT OVERALL THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN IS FAIRLY WELL MODELED.  USED A BLEND OF
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST. THE HIGH AMPLITUDE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. IS THE DOMINANT FEATURE
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE LONG TERM.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...THE COMBINATION OF A SHORTWAVE AND
ABNORMALLY COLD AIR AT 500MB MAY BE ENOUGH TO SPARK SOME SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ON FRIDAY...BUT MUCH OF THE DAY SHOULD BE
DRY.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE TROUGH SHIFTS A BIT TO THE WEST OVER THE
WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO MOVE UP THE EAST COAST.
THIS ALLOWS A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST TO SHIFT WEST OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  COMBINED WITH THE MOISTURE...EXPECT A FAIRLY
STEADY RAINFALL ACROSS AT LEAST A PORTION OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH PART OF THE WEEKEND.  THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS BOTH IN THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE FRONT AND IN THE TIMING SO
THIS COULD OCCUR SATURDAY...SUNDAY...OR A PORTION OF BOTH DAYS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...STATIONARY FRONT SLOWLY SHIFTS BACK OFFSHORE
BRINGING AN END TO THE STEADY RAINFALL. HOWEVER...LOW PRESSURE
MOVING THROUGH QUEBEC WILL BRING A COLD FRONT TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  EXPECT THE POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
PERIODICALLY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR CONDITIONS DESPITE SCATTERED TO BROKEN
DECK OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS.  SEA BREEZES DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.  A
FEW HIT AND MISS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR...WHICH MAY RESULT IN BRIEFLY LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR. LOW
PROBABILITY OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN -SHRA.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR NW...CHANCE
FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. MVFR CONDITIONS MORE
PROBABLE TOWARDS EASTERN MA/RI IN -SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WINDS/SEAS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SCA
LEVELS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY ALONG WITH GOOD VISIBILITIES. LOW RISK
OF MARGINAL 5 FOOT SWELL REACHING INTO THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH DISTANT LOW PRESSURE.
HOWEVER...BASED ON MOST WAVE GUIDANCE CAPPED SEAS AT 4 FEET FOR NOW
BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO RE-EVALUATE.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  QUIET BOATING
WEATHER EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  WINDS AND SEAS ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
HOWEVER...MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY WITH A STATIONARY FRONT
WAVERING OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/RLG
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...FRANK/RLG
MARINE...FRANK/RLG




000
FXUS61 KBOX 300752
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
352 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

MAINLY DRY/PLEASANT WEATHER TODAY OTHER THAN PERHAPS A BRIEF PASSING
SPRINKLE.  A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ARE
POSSIBLE THU AND FRI...BUT MOST OF THE TIME WILL FEATURE DRY
WEATHER.  A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN IS POSSIBLE SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND
IF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

A MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDINESS TODAY...ALTHOUGH STILL EXPECT PEEKS OF SUNSHINE.
MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY...BUT THE SHORTWAVE COULD RESULT IN A
FEW PASSING SPRINKLES.  VERY LITTLE FORCING/INSTABILITY IS AVAILABLE
FOR MUCH MORE THAN THAT.  ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
TO RESULT IN LOW HUMIDITY WITH TEMPS A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE
JULY.  HIGH WILL TOP OUT IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...

TONIGHT...

A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS ALONG WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.  THE RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS SHOULD ALLOW LOWS
TO FALL BACK INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

THURSDAY...

POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL BE LIFTING INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON
THURSDAY. MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND
WESTERN ZONES WITH CAPES ON THE ORDER OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG.  0 TO 6
KM SHEAR WILL BE AROUND 40 KNOTS ALONG WITH 500 TEMPS AROUND
-15C...WHICH IS QUITE COLD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

ALL IN ALL...THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE TO OUR NORTH.
HOWEVER...ENOUGH PARAMETERS ARE IN PLACE FOR A FEW HIT AND MISS
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND ESPECIALLY IN
NORTHWEST MA/SOUTHWEST NH.  WHILE INSTABILITY IS VERY
MARGINAL...COLD POOL ALOFT/GOOD SHEAR MAY RESULT IN A FEW STRONG
STORMS PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.  BEST SHOT OF THAT IS
IN OUR FAR NORTHWEST ZONES.  HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S UNDER A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
* LOW PRES COULD BRING RAIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY

THE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
CONTINUES TO BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE
LONG TERM. AT THE SURFACE...DURING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND IS IN BETWEEN A HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE...AND A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
RETURN FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL BRING SOME INCREASE IN
MOISTURE TO OUR AREA FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT
A CHANCE FOR MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS. ON THURSDAY THERE WILL ALSO BE
A SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE TROUGH WHICH WOULD ALSO CONTRIBUTE
TO THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR THURSDAY
INDICATE MINIMAL CAPE...SO THUNDER NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
FRIDAY CAPE OVER THE INTERIOR MAY INCREASE TO A FEW HUNDRED
J/KG...SOME ISOLATED THUNDER MAY OCCUR. DAYTIME HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ARE EXPECTED...BUT OVER THE COURSE OF THU AND
FRI SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 60S...BRINGING A
SLIGHTLY MORE MUGGY FEEL.

DURING THIS WEEKEND THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS SOMEWHAT TO THE
WEST...ENABLING A FRONT TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. IN ADDITION A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY MOVE ALONG THE
FRONT. THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR STEADY RAIN TO AT LEAST A
PORTION OF THE REGION. THERE CONTINUE TO BE SOME RUN TO RUN MODEL
DISCREPANCIES REGARDING HOW CLOSE THE FRONT COMES TO OUR
AREA...AND HOW LONG IT LINGERS NEARBY. THE CLOSER THE FRONT COMES
TO THE AREA...THE MORE WIDESPREAD THE RAIN. THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF
HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES IN PRECIP TIMING...BUT BOTH SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF RAIN SATURDAY AND/OR SUNDAY. WILL GO WITH
CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THIS TIMEFRAME. 12Z GFS SHOWS ROBUST
MOISTURE WITH A RIBBON OF UP TO 2 INCH PWATS LINGERING IN OUR
AREA. IF THIS SCENARIO DOES COME TO FRUITION THERE COULD BE SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE WEEKEND. CONSIDERABLE MODEL
SPREAD ON CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY...ECMWF INDICATES FRONT MAY BE
OFFSHORE AT THIS POINT...WILL GO WITH ONLY A LOW CHANCE POP.

DRIER CONDITIONS MAY PREVAIL FOR TUESDAY...AS BY THIS TIME THE FRONT
SHOULD BE FURTHER OFFSHORE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR CONDITIONS DESPITE SCATTERED TO BROKEN
DECK OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS.  SEA BREEZES DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.  A
FEW HIT AND MISS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR...WHICH MAY RESULT IN BRIEFLY LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR. LOW
PROBABILITY OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN -SHRA.  DURING
FRI ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...MAINLY OVER
THE INTERIOR.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR NW...CHANCE FOR
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. MVFR CONDITIONS MORE PROBABLE
TOWARDS EASTERN MA/RI IN -SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WINDS/SEAS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SCA
LEVELS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY ALONG WITH GOOD VISIBILITIES. LOW RISK
OF MARGINAL 5 FOOT SWELL REACHING INTO THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH DISTANT LOW PRESSURE.
HOWEVER...BASED ON MOST WAVE GUIDANCE CAPPED SEAS AT 4 FEET FOR NOW
BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO RE-EVALUATE.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LINGERING ROUGH SEAS
ON THE OUTER WATERS ON THURSDAY FROM AN OFFSHORE LOW SHOULD SUBSIDE
DURING THE DAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS. WINDS BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.  MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER
POSSIBLE WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT AND POSSIBLE WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE.  THERE IS A CHANCE OF SCA SEAS/WINDS DEVELOPING DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...NMB
AVIATION...FRANK/NMB
MARINE...FRANK/NMB



000
FXUS61 KBOX 300752
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
352 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

MAINLY DRY/PLEASANT WEATHER TODAY OTHER THAN PERHAPS A BRIEF PASSING
SPRINKLE.  A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ARE
POSSIBLE THU AND FRI...BUT MOST OF THE TIME WILL FEATURE DRY
WEATHER.  A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN IS POSSIBLE SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND
IF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

A MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDINESS TODAY...ALTHOUGH STILL EXPECT PEEKS OF SUNSHINE.
MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY...BUT THE SHORTWAVE COULD RESULT IN A
FEW PASSING SPRINKLES.  VERY LITTLE FORCING/INSTABILITY IS AVAILABLE
FOR MUCH MORE THAN THAT.  ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
TO RESULT IN LOW HUMIDITY WITH TEMPS A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE
JULY.  HIGH WILL TOP OUT IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...

TONIGHT...

A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS ALONG WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.  THE RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS SHOULD ALLOW LOWS
TO FALL BACK INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

THURSDAY...

POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL BE LIFTING INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON
THURSDAY. MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND
WESTERN ZONES WITH CAPES ON THE ORDER OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG.  0 TO 6
KM SHEAR WILL BE AROUND 40 KNOTS ALONG WITH 500 TEMPS AROUND
-15C...WHICH IS QUITE COLD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

ALL IN ALL...THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE TO OUR NORTH.
HOWEVER...ENOUGH PARAMETERS ARE IN PLACE FOR A FEW HIT AND MISS
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND ESPECIALLY IN
NORTHWEST MA/SOUTHWEST NH.  WHILE INSTABILITY IS VERY
MARGINAL...COLD POOL ALOFT/GOOD SHEAR MAY RESULT IN A FEW STRONG
STORMS PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.  BEST SHOT OF THAT IS
IN OUR FAR NORTHWEST ZONES.  HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S UNDER A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
* LOW PRES COULD BRING RAIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY

THE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
CONTINUES TO BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE
LONG TERM. AT THE SURFACE...DURING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND IS IN BETWEEN A HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE...AND A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
RETURN FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL BRING SOME INCREASE IN
MOISTURE TO OUR AREA FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT
A CHANCE FOR MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS. ON THURSDAY THERE WILL ALSO BE
A SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE TROUGH WHICH WOULD ALSO CONTRIBUTE
TO THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR THURSDAY
INDICATE MINIMAL CAPE...SO THUNDER NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
FRIDAY CAPE OVER THE INTERIOR MAY INCREASE TO A FEW HUNDRED
J/KG...SOME ISOLATED THUNDER MAY OCCUR. DAYTIME HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ARE EXPECTED...BUT OVER THE COURSE OF THU AND
FRI SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 60S...BRINGING A
SLIGHTLY MORE MUGGY FEEL.

DURING THIS WEEKEND THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS SOMEWHAT TO THE
WEST...ENABLING A FRONT TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. IN ADDITION A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY MOVE ALONG THE
FRONT. THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR STEADY RAIN TO AT LEAST A
PORTION OF THE REGION. THERE CONTINUE TO BE SOME RUN TO RUN MODEL
DISCREPANCIES REGARDING HOW CLOSE THE FRONT COMES TO OUR
AREA...AND HOW LONG IT LINGERS NEARBY. THE CLOSER THE FRONT COMES
TO THE AREA...THE MORE WIDESPREAD THE RAIN. THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF
HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES IN PRECIP TIMING...BUT BOTH SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF RAIN SATURDAY AND/OR SUNDAY. WILL GO WITH
CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THIS TIMEFRAME. 12Z GFS SHOWS ROBUST
MOISTURE WITH A RIBBON OF UP TO 2 INCH PWATS LINGERING IN OUR
AREA. IF THIS SCENARIO DOES COME TO FRUITION THERE COULD BE SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE WEEKEND. CONSIDERABLE MODEL
SPREAD ON CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY...ECMWF INDICATES FRONT MAY BE
OFFSHORE AT THIS POINT...WILL GO WITH ONLY A LOW CHANCE POP.

DRIER CONDITIONS MAY PREVAIL FOR TUESDAY...AS BY THIS TIME THE FRONT
SHOULD BE FURTHER OFFSHORE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR CONDITIONS DESPITE SCATTERED TO BROKEN
DECK OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS.  SEA BREEZES DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.  A
FEW HIT AND MISS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR...WHICH MAY RESULT IN BRIEFLY LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR. LOW
PROBABILITY OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN -SHRA.  DURING
FRI ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...MAINLY OVER
THE INTERIOR.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR NW...CHANCE FOR
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. MVFR CONDITIONS MORE PROBABLE
TOWARDS EASTERN MA/RI IN -SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WINDS/SEAS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SCA
LEVELS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY ALONG WITH GOOD VISIBILITIES. LOW RISK
OF MARGINAL 5 FOOT SWELL REACHING INTO THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH DISTANT LOW PRESSURE.
HOWEVER...BASED ON MOST WAVE GUIDANCE CAPPED SEAS AT 4 FEET FOR NOW
BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO RE-EVALUATE.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LINGERING ROUGH SEAS
ON THE OUTER WATERS ON THURSDAY FROM AN OFFSHORE LOW SHOULD SUBSIDE
DURING THE DAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS. WINDS BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.  MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER
POSSIBLE WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT AND POSSIBLE WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE.  THERE IS A CHANCE OF SCA SEAS/WINDS DEVELOPING DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...NMB
AVIATION...FRANK/NMB
MARINE...FRANK/NMB




000
FXUS61 KOKX 300646
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
246 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD OFFSHORE THROUGH TONIGHT.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL GRADUALLY WORK
WEST TOWARD THE COAST THROUGH THIS WEEKEND..WITH MULTIPLE WAVES OF
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG IT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
STILL SEEING BKN PATCHES OF HIGH-BASED STRATOCU INLAND...ALSO IN
NYC AND ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND. SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED OFFSHORE IN CONVERGENCE ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
TROUGH. RADAR SHOWS THE ASSOCIATED CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY REMAINING
OFFSHORE...SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY OF THESE SHOWERS TO DRIFT
ONTO LAND.

LOW TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S INLAND AND IN THE LONG
ISLAND PINE BARRENS...TO 60-65 IN AND NEAR NYC. DRY AIR REMAINS
IN PLACE WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
MODELS IN CLOSER AGREEMENT AS TO AMT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND
LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON TO LEAD TO SHOWERS AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE PASSES. 29/21Z SREF MEAN STILL SUGGESTS POSSIBILITY OF
SPRINKLES IN ORANGE COUNTY FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...ATTM OPTED
TO KEEP FCST DRY. EVEN IF ANY SHOWERS DO MANAGE TO MAKE IT INTO
ORANGE...MID LEVEL CAP SHOULD INHIBIT THUNDER.

DEEPER MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD SLOWLY EDGE INTO AREAS FROM NYC
NORTH/WEST TONIGHT...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THERE AND PTCLDY TO
THE EAST. FORCING FOR SHOWERS WILL BE LACKING AS SHORTWAVES
PIVOTING AROUND A CLOSED UPPER LOW IN ONTARIO/QUEBEC WILL BE WEAK
AND PASSING JUST TO THE NW.

A BETTER AND MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL COME ON THU
AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE PIVOTS AROUND THE CLOSED LOW...AND THERE
MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED TSTM PER NAM FCST
SOUNDINGS. HAVE SCT COVERAGE ACROSS NEARLY THE ENTIRE CWA DESPITE
ONSHORE FLOW...AS MARINE LAYER DOES NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH TO
INHIBIT CONVECTION EXCEPT FAR ERN SECTIONS OF LONG ISLAND AND
SE CT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED ANOMALOUS SUMMERTIME PATTERN FEATURES A TROUGH
ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA...WITH RIDGING OUT WEST AND ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS BLOCKING PATTERN WILL RESULT IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH GRADUALLY FILLING AND WORKING EAST AT THE END OF
THE PERIOD AS AN UPSTREAM KICKER MOVES INTO CENTRAL CANADA. THERE
ARE CLEARLY TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE GLOBAL MODEL SUITE WITH
HOW QUICKLY THIS OCCURS...AS WELL AS WITH AN OFFSHORE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT RETROGRADES WEST IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT RISES ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD THU INTO SAT. THE LATTER OF WHICH COULD BRING A
BOUT OF STEADY RAINS INTO THE REGION FRI NIGHT INTO THE SAT. THE 12Z
ECMWF AND 12Z GGEM REMAIN THE MOST AGGRESSIVE SOLUTIONS. THE
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOE A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT...BUT THERE
REMAINS A DECENT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE LOCATION OF THE
FRONTAL WAVE AND THE BOUNDARY.

FOR THU INTO FRI...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED TO THE EAST WITH A
RETURN SLY FLOW. AIR MASS REMAINS FAIRLY DRY IN THE LOW-LEVELS WITH
ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND WEAK TO MODERATE SHEAR. OVERALL CHANCES
FOR CONVECTION ARE LOW DURING THIS TIME WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEING
IN THE AFT/EVE HOURS IN THE HILLS NW OF NYC...DRIVEN BY DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING. RAIN CHANCES THEN INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
OFFSHORE FRONT AND MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE. ONCE AGAIN
THOUGH...THE SOLUTIONS VARY ON THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT.

FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON THE HEELS
OF THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. THE GGEM AND GFS BOTH ARE SLOWER WITH
THE PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH. THUS...CONVECTION COULD LINGER INTO MON
WITH A WEAK TROUGH/COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH.

TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR AVG THU-FRI...THEN A LITTLE BELOW AVG THIS
WEEKEND VIA CLOUD COVER AND GREATER POP...THEN RETURNING TO NEAR AVG
ON MON. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL ALSO NE ON THE INCREASE WITH DEW POINTS
RISING INTO THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION.

VFR. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT...LASTING INTO WEDS MORNING.
SEA BREEZES THEN DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND PASS THROUGH SOME
TERMINALS. WINDS GENERALLY SW TO S 10KT OR LESS.


.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDS NIGHT...VFR.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS.
.SATURDAY-SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR...IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SCT
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WIND AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN QUIET FROM THURSDAY THOUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH AN APPROACHING OFFSHORE FRONT THIS WEEKEND AND THEN WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS THEN EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THIS WEEKEND.
TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME FOR SPECIFICS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/DW
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...LN
MARINE...MALOIT/MET/DW
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/DW









000
FXUS61 KOKX 300646
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
246 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD OFFSHORE THROUGH TONIGHT.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL GRADUALLY WORK
WEST TOWARD THE COAST THROUGH THIS WEEKEND..WITH MULTIPLE WAVES OF
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG IT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
STILL SEEING BKN PATCHES OF HIGH-BASED STRATOCU INLAND...ALSO IN
NYC AND ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND. SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED OFFSHORE IN CONVERGENCE ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
TROUGH. RADAR SHOWS THE ASSOCIATED CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY REMAINING
OFFSHORE...SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY OF THESE SHOWERS TO DRIFT
ONTO LAND.

LOW TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S INLAND AND IN THE LONG
ISLAND PINE BARRENS...TO 60-65 IN AND NEAR NYC. DRY AIR REMAINS
IN PLACE WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
MODELS IN CLOSER AGREEMENT AS TO AMT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND
LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON TO LEAD TO SHOWERS AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE PASSES. 29/21Z SREF MEAN STILL SUGGESTS POSSIBILITY OF
SPRINKLES IN ORANGE COUNTY FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...ATTM OPTED
TO KEEP FCST DRY. EVEN IF ANY SHOWERS DO MANAGE TO MAKE IT INTO
ORANGE...MID LEVEL CAP SHOULD INHIBIT THUNDER.

DEEPER MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD SLOWLY EDGE INTO AREAS FROM NYC
NORTH/WEST TONIGHT...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THERE AND PTCLDY TO
THE EAST. FORCING FOR SHOWERS WILL BE LACKING AS SHORTWAVES
PIVOTING AROUND A CLOSED UPPER LOW IN ONTARIO/QUEBEC WILL BE WEAK
AND PASSING JUST TO THE NW.

A BETTER AND MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL COME ON THU
AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE PIVOTS AROUND THE CLOSED LOW...AND THERE
MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED TSTM PER NAM FCST
SOUNDINGS. HAVE SCT COVERAGE ACROSS NEARLY THE ENTIRE CWA DESPITE
ONSHORE FLOW...AS MARINE LAYER DOES NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH TO
INHIBIT CONVECTION EXCEPT FAR ERN SECTIONS OF LONG ISLAND AND
SE CT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED ANOMALOUS SUMMERTIME PATTERN FEATURES A TROUGH
ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA...WITH RIDGING OUT WEST AND ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS BLOCKING PATTERN WILL RESULT IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH GRADUALLY FILLING AND WORKING EAST AT THE END OF
THE PERIOD AS AN UPSTREAM KICKER MOVES INTO CENTRAL CANADA. THERE
ARE CLEARLY TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE GLOBAL MODEL SUITE WITH
HOW QUICKLY THIS OCCURS...AS WELL AS WITH AN OFFSHORE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT RETROGRADES WEST IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT RISES ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD THU INTO SAT. THE LATTER OF WHICH COULD BRING A
BOUT OF STEADY RAINS INTO THE REGION FRI NIGHT INTO THE SAT. THE 12Z
ECMWF AND 12Z GGEM REMAIN THE MOST AGGRESSIVE SOLUTIONS. THE
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOE A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT...BUT THERE
REMAINS A DECENT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE LOCATION OF THE
FRONTAL WAVE AND THE BOUNDARY.

FOR THU INTO FRI...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED TO THE EAST WITH A
RETURN SLY FLOW. AIR MASS REMAINS FAIRLY DRY IN THE LOW-LEVELS WITH
ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND WEAK TO MODERATE SHEAR. OVERALL CHANCES
FOR CONVECTION ARE LOW DURING THIS TIME WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEING
IN THE AFT/EVE HOURS IN THE HILLS NW OF NYC...DRIVEN BY DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING. RAIN CHANCES THEN INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
OFFSHORE FRONT AND MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE. ONCE AGAIN
THOUGH...THE SOLUTIONS VARY ON THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT.

FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON THE HEELS
OF THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. THE GGEM AND GFS BOTH ARE SLOWER WITH
THE PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH. THUS...CONVECTION COULD LINGER INTO MON
WITH A WEAK TROUGH/COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH.

TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR AVG THU-FRI...THEN A LITTLE BELOW AVG THIS
WEEKEND VIA CLOUD COVER AND GREATER POP...THEN RETURNING TO NEAR AVG
ON MON. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL ALSO NE ON THE INCREASE WITH DEW POINTS
RISING INTO THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION.

VFR. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT...LASTING INTO WEDS MORNING.
SEA BREEZES THEN DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND PASS THROUGH SOME
TERMINALS. WINDS GENERALLY SW TO S 10KT OR LESS.


.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDS NIGHT...VFR.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS.
.SATURDAY-SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR...IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SCT
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WIND AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN QUIET FROM THURSDAY THOUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH AN APPROACHING OFFSHORE FRONT THIS WEEKEND AND THEN WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS THEN EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THIS WEEKEND.
TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME FOR SPECIFICS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/DW
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...LN
MARINE...MALOIT/MET/DW
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/DW










000
FXUS61 KBOX 300636
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
235 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY AND LESS HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE
THU AND FRI...BUT MOST OF THE TIME WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER. A
PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN IS POSSIBLE SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND IF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

235 AM UPDATE...

A SCATTERED TO BROKEN DECK OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH DAYBREAK.  ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS/DRY AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR COOL
TEMPS OVERNIGHT FOR LATE JULY.

LOWS BY DAYBREAK WILL BE WELL DOWN INTO THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION WITH PERHAPS SOME UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORMALLY COOLEST
OUTLYING LOCATIONS OF WESTERN MA/SOUTHWEST NH.  THE MILD SPOTS WILL
BE THE URBAN HEAT ISLANDS OF DOWNTOWN BOSTON/PROVIDENCE...WITH LOW
TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE LOWER 60S.  A TOUCH OF PATCHY GROUND FOG
POSSIBLE LATE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS...BUT NOTHING
WIDESPREAD IS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
ANOMALOUS MID LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA...JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN
ANOTHER DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS
AND SUNSHINE ANTICIPATED AS A MOISTURE-STARVED SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED...BUT
THE SHORTWAVE COULD RESULT IN A PASSING SPRINKLE OR TWO. WE WILL
HAVE TO WATCH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING EAST OF THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK...BUT AT THIS TIME APPEARS IT SHOULD BE FAR
ENOUGH AWAY TO SPARE EVEN THE CAPE/ISLANDS ANY MEASURABLE
RAINFALL.

THIS ANOMALOUS MID LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH NUDGES SLIGHTLY CLOSER
TO OUR REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A MODEST SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
THIS LONGWAVE TROUGH COULD ARRIVE SOON ENOUGH TO GIVE US A PASSING
SHOWER LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE CT
RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
* LOW PRES COULD BRING RAIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY

THE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
CONTINUES TO BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE
LONG TERM. AT THE SURFACE...DURING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND IS IN BETWEEN A HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE...AND A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
RETURN FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL BRING SOME INCREASE IN
MOISTURE TO OUR AREA FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT
A CHANCE FOR MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS. ON THURSDAY THERE WILL ALSO BE
A SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE TROUGH WHICH WOULD ALSO CONTRIBUTE
TO THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR THURSDAY
INDICATE MINIMAL CAPE...SO THUNDER NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
FRIDAY CAPE OVER THE INTERIOR MAY INCREASE TO A FEW HUNDRED
J/KG...SOME ISOLATED THUNDER MAY OCCUR. DAYTIME HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ARE EXPECTED...BUT OVER THE COURSE OF THU AND
FRI SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 60S...BRINGING A
SLIGHTLY MORE MUGGY FEEL.

DURING THIS WEEKEND THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS SOMEWHAT TO THE
WEST...ENABLING A FRONT TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. IN ADDITION A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY MOVE ALONG THE
FRONT. THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR STEADY RAIN TO AT LEAST A
PORTION OF THE REGION. THERE CONTINUE TO BE SOME RUN TO RUN MODEL
DISCREPANCIES REGARDING HOW CLOSE THE FRONT COMES TO OUR
AREA...AND HOW LONG IT LINGERS NEARBY. THE CLOSER THE FRONT COMES
TO THE AREA...THE MORE WIDESPREAD THE RAIN. THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF
HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES IN PRECIP TIMING...BUT BOTH SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF RAIN SATURDAY AND/OR SUNDAY. WILL GO WITH
CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THIS TIMEFRAME. 12Z GFS SHOWS ROBUST
MOISTURE WITH A RIBBON OF UP TO 2 INCH PWATS LINGERING IN OUR
AREA. IF THIS SCENARIO DOES COME TO FRUITION THERE COULD BE SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE WEEKEND. CONSIDERABLE MODEL
SPREAD ON CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY...ECMWF INDICATES FRONT MAY BE
OFFSHORE AT THIS POINT...WILL GO WITH ONLY A LOW CHANCE POP.

DRIER CONDITIONS MAY PREVAIL FOR TUESDAY...AS BY THIS TIME THE FRONT
SHOULD BE FURTHER OFFSHORE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR CONDITIONS DESPITE SCATTERED TO BROKEN
DECK OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS.  SEAS BREEZES DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.  A
FEW HIT AND MISS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR...WHICH MAY RESULT IN BRIEFLY LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR. LOW
PROBABILITY OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN -SHRA.  DURING
FRI ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...MAINLY OVER
THE INTERIOR.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR NW...CHANCE FOR
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. MVFR CONDITIONS MORE PROBABLE
TOWARDS EASTERN MA/RI IN -SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. AS OF EARLY THIS EVENING LEFTOVER SWELL HAS
DIMINISHED OVER THE SOUTHERN OUTER COASTAL WATERS...AND SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS OVERNIGHT.

OTHERWISE...WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SEAS MAY BUILD TO 5 FEET ACROSS THE
OUTER COASTAL WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS AN OFFSHORE LOW
PRESSURE MOVES BY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LINGERING ROUGH SEAS ON THE
OUTER WATERS ON THURSDAY FROM AN OFFSHORE LOW SHOULD SUBSIDE DURING
THE DAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS. WINDS BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.  MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER
POSSIBLE WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT AND POSSIBLE WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE.  THERE IS A CHANCE OF SCA SEAS/WINDS DEVELOPING DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...NMB
AVIATION...FRANK/NMB
MARINE...BELK/NMB



000
FXUS61 KBOX 300636
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
235 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY AND LESS HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE
THU AND FRI...BUT MOST OF THE TIME WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER. A
PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN IS POSSIBLE SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND IF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

235 AM UPDATE...

A SCATTERED TO BROKEN DECK OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH DAYBREAK.  ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS/DRY AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR COOL
TEMPS OVERNIGHT FOR LATE JULY.

LOWS BY DAYBREAK WILL BE WELL DOWN INTO THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION WITH PERHAPS SOME UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORMALLY COOLEST
OUTLYING LOCATIONS OF WESTERN MA/SOUTHWEST NH.  THE MILD SPOTS WILL
BE THE URBAN HEAT ISLANDS OF DOWNTOWN BOSTON/PROVIDENCE...WITH LOW
TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE LOWER 60S.  A TOUCH OF PATCHY GROUND FOG
POSSIBLE LATE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS...BUT NOTHING
WIDESPREAD IS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
ANOMALOUS MID LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA...JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN
ANOTHER DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS
AND SUNSHINE ANTICIPATED AS A MOISTURE-STARVED SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED...BUT
THE SHORTWAVE COULD RESULT IN A PASSING SPRINKLE OR TWO. WE WILL
HAVE TO WATCH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING EAST OF THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK...BUT AT THIS TIME APPEARS IT SHOULD BE FAR
ENOUGH AWAY TO SPARE EVEN THE CAPE/ISLANDS ANY MEASURABLE
RAINFALL.

THIS ANOMALOUS MID LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH NUDGES SLIGHTLY CLOSER
TO OUR REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A MODEST SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
THIS LONGWAVE TROUGH COULD ARRIVE SOON ENOUGH TO GIVE US A PASSING
SHOWER LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE CT
RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
* LOW PRES COULD BRING RAIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY

THE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
CONTINUES TO BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE
LONG TERM. AT THE SURFACE...DURING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND IS IN BETWEEN A HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE...AND A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
RETURN FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL BRING SOME INCREASE IN
MOISTURE TO OUR AREA FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT
A CHANCE FOR MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS. ON THURSDAY THERE WILL ALSO BE
A SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE TROUGH WHICH WOULD ALSO CONTRIBUTE
TO THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR THURSDAY
INDICATE MINIMAL CAPE...SO THUNDER NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
FRIDAY CAPE OVER THE INTERIOR MAY INCREASE TO A FEW HUNDRED
J/KG...SOME ISOLATED THUNDER MAY OCCUR. DAYTIME HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ARE EXPECTED...BUT OVER THE COURSE OF THU AND
FRI SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 60S...BRINGING A
SLIGHTLY MORE MUGGY FEEL.

DURING THIS WEEKEND THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS SOMEWHAT TO THE
WEST...ENABLING A FRONT TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. IN ADDITION A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY MOVE ALONG THE
FRONT. THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR STEADY RAIN TO AT LEAST A
PORTION OF THE REGION. THERE CONTINUE TO BE SOME RUN TO RUN MODEL
DISCREPANCIES REGARDING HOW CLOSE THE FRONT COMES TO OUR
AREA...AND HOW LONG IT LINGERS NEARBY. THE CLOSER THE FRONT COMES
TO THE AREA...THE MORE WIDESPREAD THE RAIN. THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF
HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES IN PRECIP TIMING...BUT BOTH SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF RAIN SATURDAY AND/OR SUNDAY. WILL GO WITH
CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THIS TIMEFRAME. 12Z GFS SHOWS ROBUST
MOISTURE WITH A RIBBON OF UP TO 2 INCH PWATS LINGERING IN OUR
AREA. IF THIS SCENARIO DOES COME TO FRUITION THERE COULD BE SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE WEEKEND. CONSIDERABLE MODEL
SPREAD ON CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY...ECMWF INDICATES FRONT MAY BE
OFFSHORE AT THIS POINT...WILL GO WITH ONLY A LOW CHANCE POP.

DRIER CONDITIONS MAY PREVAIL FOR TUESDAY...AS BY THIS TIME THE FRONT
SHOULD BE FURTHER OFFSHORE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR CONDITIONS DESPITE SCATTERED TO BROKEN
DECK OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS.  SEAS BREEZES DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.  A
FEW HIT AND MISS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR...WHICH MAY RESULT IN BRIEFLY LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR. LOW
PROBABILITY OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN -SHRA.  DURING
FRI ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...MAINLY OVER
THE INTERIOR.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR NW...CHANCE FOR
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. MVFR CONDITIONS MORE PROBABLE
TOWARDS EASTERN MA/RI IN -SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. AS OF EARLY THIS EVENING LEFTOVER SWELL HAS
DIMINISHED OVER THE SOUTHERN OUTER COASTAL WATERS...AND SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS OVERNIGHT.

OTHERWISE...WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SEAS MAY BUILD TO 5 FEET ACROSS THE
OUTER COASTAL WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS AN OFFSHORE LOW
PRESSURE MOVES BY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LINGERING ROUGH SEAS ON THE
OUTER WATERS ON THURSDAY FROM AN OFFSHORE LOW SHOULD SUBSIDE DURING
THE DAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS. WINDS BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.  MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER
POSSIBLE WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT AND POSSIBLE WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE.  THERE IS A CHANCE OF SCA SEAS/WINDS DEVELOPING DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...NMB
AVIATION...FRANK/NMB
MARINE...BELK/NMB



000
FXUS61 KBOX 300636
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
235 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY AND LESS HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE
THU AND FRI...BUT MOST OF THE TIME WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER. A
PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN IS POSSIBLE SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND IF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

235 AM UPDATE...

A SCATTERED TO BROKEN DECK OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH DAYBREAK.  ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS/DRY AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR COOL
TEMPS OVERNIGHT FOR LATE JULY.

LOWS BY DAYBREAK WILL BE WELL DOWN INTO THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION WITH PERHAPS SOME UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORMALLY COOLEST
OUTLYING LOCATIONS OF WESTERN MA/SOUTHWEST NH.  THE MILD SPOTS WILL
BE THE URBAN HEAT ISLANDS OF DOWNTOWN BOSTON/PROVIDENCE...WITH LOW
TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE LOWER 60S.  A TOUCH OF PATCHY GROUND FOG
POSSIBLE LATE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS...BUT NOTHING
WIDESPREAD IS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
ANOMALOUS MID LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA...JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN
ANOTHER DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS
AND SUNSHINE ANTICIPATED AS A MOISTURE-STARVED SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED...BUT
THE SHORTWAVE COULD RESULT IN A PASSING SPRINKLE OR TWO. WE WILL
HAVE TO WATCH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING EAST OF THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK...BUT AT THIS TIME APPEARS IT SHOULD BE FAR
ENOUGH AWAY TO SPARE EVEN THE CAPE/ISLANDS ANY MEASURABLE
RAINFALL.

THIS ANOMALOUS MID LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH NUDGES SLIGHTLY CLOSER
TO OUR REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A MODEST SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
THIS LONGWAVE TROUGH COULD ARRIVE SOON ENOUGH TO GIVE US A PASSING
SHOWER LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE CT
RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
* LOW PRES COULD BRING RAIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY

THE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
CONTINUES TO BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE
LONG TERM. AT THE SURFACE...DURING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND IS IN BETWEEN A HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE...AND A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
RETURN FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL BRING SOME INCREASE IN
MOISTURE TO OUR AREA FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT
A CHANCE FOR MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS. ON THURSDAY THERE WILL ALSO BE
A SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE TROUGH WHICH WOULD ALSO CONTRIBUTE
TO THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR THURSDAY
INDICATE MINIMAL CAPE...SO THUNDER NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
FRIDAY CAPE OVER THE INTERIOR MAY INCREASE TO A FEW HUNDRED
J/KG...SOME ISOLATED THUNDER MAY OCCUR. DAYTIME HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ARE EXPECTED...BUT OVER THE COURSE OF THU AND
FRI SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 60S...BRINGING A
SLIGHTLY MORE MUGGY FEEL.

DURING THIS WEEKEND THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS SOMEWHAT TO THE
WEST...ENABLING A FRONT TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. IN ADDITION A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY MOVE ALONG THE
FRONT. THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR STEADY RAIN TO AT LEAST A
PORTION OF THE REGION. THERE CONTINUE TO BE SOME RUN TO RUN MODEL
DISCREPANCIES REGARDING HOW CLOSE THE FRONT COMES TO OUR
AREA...AND HOW LONG IT LINGERS NEARBY. THE CLOSER THE FRONT COMES
TO THE AREA...THE MORE WIDESPREAD THE RAIN. THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF
HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES IN PRECIP TIMING...BUT BOTH SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF RAIN SATURDAY AND/OR SUNDAY. WILL GO WITH
CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THIS TIMEFRAME. 12Z GFS SHOWS ROBUST
MOISTURE WITH A RIBBON OF UP TO 2 INCH PWATS LINGERING IN OUR
AREA. IF THIS SCENARIO DOES COME TO FRUITION THERE COULD BE SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE WEEKEND. CONSIDERABLE MODEL
SPREAD ON CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY...ECMWF INDICATES FRONT MAY BE
OFFSHORE AT THIS POINT...WILL GO WITH ONLY A LOW CHANCE POP.

DRIER CONDITIONS MAY PREVAIL FOR TUESDAY...AS BY THIS TIME THE FRONT
SHOULD BE FURTHER OFFSHORE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR CONDITIONS DESPITE SCATTERED TO BROKEN
DECK OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS.  SEAS BREEZES DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.  A
FEW HIT AND MISS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR...WHICH MAY RESULT IN BRIEFLY LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR. LOW
PROBABILITY OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN -SHRA.  DURING
FRI ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...MAINLY OVER
THE INTERIOR.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR NW...CHANCE FOR
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. MVFR CONDITIONS MORE PROBABLE
TOWARDS EASTERN MA/RI IN -SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. AS OF EARLY THIS EVENING LEFTOVER SWELL HAS
DIMINISHED OVER THE SOUTHERN OUTER COASTAL WATERS...AND SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS OVERNIGHT.

OTHERWISE...WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SEAS MAY BUILD TO 5 FEET ACROSS THE
OUTER COASTAL WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS AN OFFSHORE LOW
PRESSURE MOVES BY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LINGERING ROUGH SEAS ON THE
OUTER WATERS ON THURSDAY FROM AN OFFSHORE LOW SHOULD SUBSIDE DURING
THE DAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS. WINDS BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.  MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER
POSSIBLE WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT AND POSSIBLE WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE.  THERE IS A CHANCE OF SCA SEAS/WINDS DEVELOPING DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...NMB
AVIATION...FRANK/NMB
MARINE...BELK/NMB



000
FXUS61 KBOX 300636
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
235 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY AND LESS HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE
THU AND FRI...BUT MOST OF THE TIME WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER. A
PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN IS POSSIBLE SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND IF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

235 AM UPDATE...

A SCATTERED TO BROKEN DECK OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH DAYBREAK.  ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS/DRY AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR COOL
TEMPS OVERNIGHT FOR LATE JULY.

LOWS BY DAYBREAK WILL BE WELL DOWN INTO THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION WITH PERHAPS SOME UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORMALLY COOLEST
OUTLYING LOCATIONS OF WESTERN MA/SOUTHWEST NH.  THE MILD SPOTS WILL
BE THE URBAN HEAT ISLANDS OF DOWNTOWN BOSTON/PROVIDENCE...WITH LOW
TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE LOWER 60S.  A TOUCH OF PATCHY GROUND FOG
POSSIBLE LATE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS...BUT NOTHING
WIDESPREAD IS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
ANOMALOUS MID LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA...JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN
ANOTHER DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS
AND SUNSHINE ANTICIPATED AS A MOISTURE-STARVED SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED...BUT
THE SHORTWAVE COULD RESULT IN A PASSING SPRINKLE OR TWO. WE WILL
HAVE TO WATCH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING EAST OF THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK...BUT AT THIS TIME APPEARS IT SHOULD BE FAR
ENOUGH AWAY TO SPARE EVEN THE CAPE/ISLANDS ANY MEASURABLE
RAINFALL.

THIS ANOMALOUS MID LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH NUDGES SLIGHTLY CLOSER
TO OUR REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A MODEST SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
THIS LONGWAVE TROUGH COULD ARRIVE SOON ENOUGH TO GIVE US A PASSING
SHOWER LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE CT
RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
* LOW PRES COULD BRING RAIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY

THE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
CONTINUES TO BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE
LONG TERM. AT THE SURFACE...DURING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND IS IN BETWEEN A HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE...AND A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
RETURN FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL BRING SOME INCREASE IN
MOISTURE TO OUR AREA FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT
A CHANCE FOR MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS. ON THURSDAY THERE WILL ALSO BE
A SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE TROUGH WHICH WOULD ALSO CONTRIBUTE
TO THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR THURSDAY
INDICATE MINIMAL CAPE...SO THUNDER NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
FRIDAY CAPE OVER THE INTERIOR MAY INCREASE TO A FEW HUNDRED
J/KG...SOME ISOLATED THUNDER MAY OCCUR. DAYTIME HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ARE EXPECTED...BUT OVER THE COURSE OF THU AND
FRI SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 60S...BRINGING A
SLIGHTLY MORE MUGGY FEEL.

DURING THIS WEEKEND THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS SOMEWHAT TO THE
WEST...ENABLING A FRONT TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. IN ADDITION A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY MOVE ALONG THE
FRONT. THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR STEADY RAIN TO AT LEAST A
PORTION OF THE REGION. THERE CONTINUE TO BE SOME RUN TO RUN MODEL
DISCREPANCIES REGARDING HOW CLOSE THE FRONT COMES TO OUR
AREA...AND HOW LONG IT LINGERS NEARBY. THE CLOSER THE FRONT COMES
TO THE AREA...THE MORE WIDESPREAD THE RAIN. THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF
HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES IN PRECIP TIMING...BUT BOTH SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF RAIN SATURDAY AND/OR SUNDAY. WILL GO WITH
CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THIS TIMEFRAME. 12Z GFS SHOWS ROBUST
MOISTURE WITH A RIBBON OF UP TO 2 INCH PWATS LINGERING IN OUR
AREA. IF THIS SCENARIO DOES COME TO FRUITION THERE COULD BE SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE WEEKEND. CONSIDERABLE MODEL
SPREAD ON CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY...ECMWF INDICATES FRONT MAY BE
OFFSHORE AT THIS POINT...WILL GO WITH ONLY A LOW CHANCE POP.

DRIER CONDITIONS MAY PREVAIL FOR TUESDAY...AS BY THIS TIME THE FRONT
SHOULD BE FURTHER OFFSHORE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR CONDITIONS DESPITE SCATTERED TO BROKEN
DECK OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS.  SEAS BREEZES DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.  A
FEW HIT AND MISS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR...WHICH MAY RESULT IN BRIEFLY LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR. LOW
PROBABILITY OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN -SHRA.  DURING
FRI ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...MAINLY OVER
THE INTERIOR.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR NW...CHANCE FOR
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. MVFR CONDITIONS MORE PROBABLE
TOWARDS EASTERN MA/RI IN -SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. AS OF EARLY THIS EVENING LEFTOVER SWELL HAS
DIMINISHED OVER THE SOUTHERN OUTER COASTAL WATERS...AND SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS OVERNIGHT.

OTHERWISE...WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SEAS MAY BUILD TO 5 FEET ACROSS THE
OUTER COASTAL WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS AN OFFSHORE LOW
PRESSURE MOVES BY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LINGERING ROUGH SEAS ON THE
OUTER WATERS ON THURSDAY FROM AN OFFSHORE LOW SHOULD SUBSIDE DURING
THE DAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS. WINDS BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.  MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER
POSSIBLE WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT AND POSSIBLE WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE.  THERE IS A CHANCE OF SCA SEAS/WINDS DEVELOPING DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...NMB
AVIATION...FRANK/NMB
MARINE...BELK/NMB



000
FXUS61 KALY 300603
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
203 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A PARTLY CLOUDY COOL NIGHT WITH PATCHY
FOG ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL TOUCH OFF SOME
AFTERNOON  WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. A
STRONGER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COME THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
OVERALL FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. REGION REMAINS UNDER THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION AT THE
SURFACE. ONLY SOME MINOR UPDATES WHERE MADE MAINLY BASED ON
OBSERVATIONAL DATA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LARGE CLOSED LOW
AS IT WOBBLES OVER EASTERN CANADA AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL
ROTATE ABOUT IT. THIS UPPER AIR LOW WILL PROVIDE A BROAD CYCLONIC AS
WELL AS A COLD POOL ALOFT...BOTH OF WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH THE HELP
OF DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY REACHING THE UPPER
70S TO AROUND 80 AT BEST IN THE VALLEYS...UPPER 60S TO MID 70S
HIGHER TERRAIN THURSDAY...A COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH MORE
PATCHY FOG AND TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE
COLDEST SPOTS TO NEAR 60 RIGHT IN THE CAPITAL REGION...50S
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MEAN UPPER TROUGH AXIS REMAINS WEST OF THE REGION...AND UPPER ENERGY
GRADUALLY APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES.  SLOWLY INCREASING
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD PROVIDE
INCREASING LOW LEVEL FORCING ALONG WITH THE WEAK UPPER DYNAMICS FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST COVERAGE OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE IN THE AFTERNOONS AND
EVENINGS...WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY AT NIGHT.  THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD SEE THE BEST COVERAGE SATURDAY...CENTRAL
AREAS SUNDAY AND EASTERN AREAS MONDAY.

THE UPPER ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO EXIT BY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
BRINGING WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT EXITING EAST.  SLIGHT DRYING
TUESDAY...NOT NECESSARILY COOLING... AS MORE BROAD UPPER TROUGHING
CONTINUES OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WITH THE MEAN AXIS STILL WEST
OF OUR REGION. STILL...WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE EASTERN PORTION
OF THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH WOULD SUGGEST INTERVALS OF MID AND UPPER
CLOUDINESS EVEN IF THERE IS SOME SLIGHT DRYING AT LOW LEVELS MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.  HIGHS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE AT ALL TERMINALS WITH BKN-OVC
CIGS AT 7-8 KFT AND NEARLY CALM WINDS. THESE CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. WITH A SMALL T-TD
SPREAD AT KGFL/KPSF...SOME IFR FOG MAY DEVELOP AT THESE SITES LATE
IN THE NIGHT TOWARDS DAYBREAK ONCE THE CLOUDS BREAKS.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE.

ANY FOG WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...ALLOWING FOR VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. DIURNAL CU/STRATOCU WILL
DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY...WITH MOST SITES BKN AT 5-7 KFT BY THE AFTN
HOURS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A LIGHT BRIEF RAIN SHOWER...BUT
COVERAGE LOOKS TOO SMALL TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. S-SW
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY AROUND 5 KTS.

BKN CIGS LOOK TO CONTINUE RIGHT INTO WED NIGHT. THESE CLOUDS IN
PLACE WILL PREVENT ANY RADIATIONAL FOG FROM OCCURRING...WITH
CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT THROUGH SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A LARGE UPPER AIR LOW WILL REMAIN OVER OUR REGION FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK. WHILE WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY WASHOUT DAYS (WET
FLAG)...THERE WILL BE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
STARTING ON WEDNESDAY. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
WIDELY SCATTERED ON WEDNESDAY...SCATTERED THURSDAY...SCATTERED FROM
THE MOHAWK VALLEY SOUTHWARD FRIDAY...ISOLATED NORTH OF THE MOHAWK
RIVER. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL TAKE PLACE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

GENERALLY SPEAKING...AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW A
QUARTER OF INCH. HOWEVER...LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AN INCH ARE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS.

NIGHTS WILL GENERALLY BE DRY WITH A FULL RECOVERY AND PATCHY GROUND
FOG.

THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM EACH NIGHT AND MORNING...BECOMING
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5 TO 15 MPH BY AFTERNOON AFTERNOON.

RH VALUES WILL FALL TO THE 40-55 PERCENT RANGE EACH AFTERNOON...BUT
LOCALLY WILL SPIKE HIGHER IN ANY SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE QUITE VARIABLE ACROSS OUR REGION ON
MONDAY...GENERALLY RANGING FROM AROUND AN INCH TO LOCALLY MORE THAN
3 INCHES...HIGHEST ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES.

RAINFALL ACTUALLY IMPACTED SOME RIVERS...PRODUCING SOME RAPID
INCREASES ON SOME RIVERS AND STREAMS. THE WILLIAMS RIVER AT
ROCKINGHAM BRIEFLY WENT ABOUT A FOOT ABOVE FLOOD YESTERDAY LAST
EVENING.

WITH NO MEASURABLE RAINFALL TODAY...RIVERS AND STREAMS WERE ABLE TO
CREST AND BEGIN TO RECEDE. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS DESPITE AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TOMORROW LOOKS TO BE WIDELY
SCATTERED...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. THURSDAY/S COVERAGE
LOOKS A LITTLE MORE EXTENSIVE AS FRIDAY/S AND EVEN SATURDAY/S.
UNLESS HEAVY RAINFALL FALLS IN A CRITICAL RUNOFF AREA...MOST RIVERS
SHOULD NOT RESPOND TO THIS SCATTERED RAINFALL AS AVERAGE BASIN
RAINFALLS SHOULD GENERALLY BE A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY WHICH WILL ALLOW RIVER AND STREAM
LEVELS TO RECEDE. HOWEVER...THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED THIS
WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS LOW WILL WOBBLE
OVER EASTERN CANADA AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT. THE LOW WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND HOWEVER THE THREAT FOR
STORMS WILL CONTINUE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/BGM
NEAR TERM...IAA/BGM
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV







000
FXUS61 KALY 300603
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
203 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A PARTLY CLOUDY COOL NIGHT WITH PATCHY
FOG ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL TOUCH OFF SOME
AFTERNOON  WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. A
STRONGER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COME THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
OVERALL FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. REGION REMAINS UNDER THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION AT THE
SURFACE. ONLY SOME MINOR UPDATES WHERE MADE MAINLY BASED ON
OBSERVATIONAL DATA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LARGE CLOSED LOW
AS IT WOBBLES OVER EASTERN CANADA AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL
ROTATE ABOUT IT. THIS UPPER AIR LOW WILL PROVIDE A BROAD CYCLONIC AS
WELL AS A COLD POOL ALOFT...BOTH OF WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH THE HELP
OF DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY REACHING THE UPPER
70S TO AROUND 80 AT BEST IN THE VALLEYS...UPPER 60S TO MID 70S
HIGHER TERRAIN THURSDAY...A COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH MORE
PATCHY FOG AND TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE
COLDEST SPOTS TO NEAR 60 RIGHT IN THE CAPITAL REGION...50S
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MEAN UPPER TROUGH AXIS REMAINS WEST OF THE REGION...AND UPPER ENERGY
GRADUALLY APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES.  SLOWLY INCREASING
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD PROVIDE
INCREASING LOW LEVEL FORCING ALONG WITH THE WEAK UPPER DYNAMICS FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST COVERAGE OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE IN THE AFTERNOONS AND
EVENINGS...WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY AT NIGHT.  THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD SEE THE BEST COVERAGE SATURDAY...CENTRAL
AREAS SUNDAY AND EASTERN AREAS MONDAY.

THE UPPER ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO EXIT BY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
BRINGING WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT EXITING EAST.  SLIGHT DRYING
TUESDAY...NOT NECESSARILY COOLING... AS MORE BROAD UPPER TROUGHING
CONTINUES OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WITH THE MEAN AXIS STILL WEST
OF OUR REGION. STILL...WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE EASTERN PORTION
OF THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH WOULD SUGGEST INTERVALS OF MID AND UPPER
CLOUDINESS EVEN IF THERE IS SOME SLIGHT DRYING AT LOW LEVELS MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.  HIGHS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE AT ALL TERMINALS WITH BKN-OVC
CIGS AT 7-8 KFT AND NEARLY CALM WINDS. THESE CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. WITH A SMALL T-TD
SPREAD AT KGFL/KPSF...SOME IFR FOG MAY DEVELOP AT THESE SITES LATE
IN THE NIGHT TOWARDS DAYBREAK ONCE THE CLOUDS BREAKS.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE.

ANY FOG WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...ALLOWING FOR VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. DIURNAL CU/STRATOCU WILL
DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY...WITH MOST SITES BKN AT 5-7 KFT BY THE AFTN
HOURS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A LIGHT BRIEF RAIN SHOWER...BUT
COVERAGE LOOKS TOO SMALL TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. S-SW
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY AROUND 5 KTS.

BKN CIGS LOOK TO CONTINUE RIGHT INTO WED NIGHT. THESE CLOUDS IN
PLACE WILL PREVENT ANY RADIATIONAL FOG FROM OCCURRING...WITH
CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT THROUGH SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A LARGE UPPER AIR LOW WILL REMAIN OVER OUR REGION FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK. WHILE WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY WASHOUT DAYS (WET
FLAG)...THERE WILL BE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
STARTING ON WEDNESDAY. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
WIDELY SCATTERED ON WEDNESDAY...SCATTERED THURSDAY...SCATTERED FROM
THE MOHAWK VALLEY SOUTHWARD FRIDAY...ISOLATED NORTH OF THE MOHAWK
RIVER. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL TAKE PLACE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

GENERALLY SPEAKING...AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW A
QUARTER OF INCH. HOWEVER...LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AN INCH ARE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS.

NIGHTS WILL GENERALLY BE DRY WITH A FULL RECOVERY AND PATCHY GROUND
FOG.

THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM EACH NIGHT AND MORNING...BECOMING
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5 TO 15 MPH BY AFTERNOON AFTERNOON.

RH VALUES WILL FALL TO THE 40-55 PERCENT RANGE EACH AFTERNOON...BUT
LOCALLY WILL SPIKE HIGHER IN ANY SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE QUITE VARIABLE ACROSS OUR REGION ON
MONDAY...GENERALLY RANGING FROM AROUND AN INCH TO LOCALLY MORE THAN
3 INCHES...HIGHEST ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES.

RAINFALL ACTUALLY IMPACTED SOME RIVERS...PRODUCING SOME RAPID
INCREASES ON SOME RIVERS AND STREAMS. THE WILLIAMS RIVER AT
ROCKINGHAM BRIEFLY WENT ABOUT A FOOT ABOVE FLOOD YESTERDAY LAST
EVENING.

WITH NO MEASURABLE RAINFALL TODAY...RIVERS AND STREAMS WERE ABLE TO
CREST AND BEGIN TO RECEDE. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS DESPITE AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TOMORROW LOOKS TO BE WIDELY
SCATTERED...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. THURSDAY/S COVERAGE
LOOKS A LITTLE MORE EXTENSIVE AS FRIDAY/S AND EVEN SATURDAY/S.
UNLESS HEAVY RAINFALL FALLS IN A CRITICAL RUNOFF AREA...MOST RIVERS
SHOULD NOT RESPOND TO THIS SCATTERED RAINFALL AS AVERAGE BASIN
RAINFALLS SHOULD GENERALLY BE A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY WHICH WILL ALLOW RIVER AND STREAM
LEVELS TO RECEDE. HOWEVER...THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED THIS
WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS LOW WILL WOBBLE
OVER EASTERN CANADA AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT. THE LOW WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND HOWEVER THE THREAT FOR
STORMS WILL CONTINUE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/BGM
NEAR TERM...IAA/BGM
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV






000
FXUS61 KALY 300552
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
152 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A PARTLY CLOUDY COOL NIGHT WITH PATCHY
FOG ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL TOUCH OFF SOME
AFTERNOON  WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. A
STRONGER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COME THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
OVERALL FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. REGION REMAINS UNDER THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION AT THE
SURFACE. ONLY SOME MINOR UPDATES WHERE MADE MAINLY BASED ON
OBSERVATIONAL DATA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LARGE CLOSED LOW
AS IT WOBBLES OVER EASTERN CANADA AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL
ROTATE ABOUT IT. THIS UPPER AIR LOW WILL PROVIDE A BROAD CYCLONIC AS
WELL AS A COLD POOL ALOFT...BOTH OF WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH THE HELP
OF DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY REACHING THE UPPER
70S TO AROUND 80 AT BEST IN THE VALLEYS...UPPER 60S TO MID 70S
HIGHER TERRAIN THURSDAY...A COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH MORE
PATCHY FOG AND TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE
COLDEST SPOTS TO NEAR 60 RIGHT IN THE CAPITAL REGION...50S
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MEAN UPPER TROUGH AXIS REMAINS WEST OF THE REGION...AND UPPER ENERGY
GRADUALLY APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES.  SLOWLY INCREASING
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD PROVIDE
INCREASING LOW LEVEL FORCING ALONG WITH THE WEAK UPPER DYNAMICS FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST COVERAGE OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE IN THE AFTERNOONS AND
EVENINGS...WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY AT NIGHT.  THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD SEE THE BEST COVERAGE SATURDAY...CENTRAL
AREAS SUNDAY AND EASTERN AREAS MONDAY.

THE UPPER ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO EXIT BY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
BRINGING WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT EXITING EAST.  SLIGHT DRYING
TUESDAY...NOT NECESSARILY COOLING... AS MORE BROAD UPPER TROUGHING
CONTINUES OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WITH THE MEAN AXIS STILL WEST
OF OUR REGION. STILL...WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE EASTERN PORTION
OF THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH WOULD SUGGEST INTERVALS OF MID AND UPPER
CLOUDINESS EVEN IF THERE IS SOME SLIGHT DRYING AT LOW LEVELS MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.  HIGHS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION GIVEN A SCT-BKN MID LEVEL
DECK OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE TAF LOCATIONS.  OVERNIGHT...WHERE BREAKS
DO OCCUR WE MIGHT SEE SOME MVFR VIS ISSUES WITH RESPECT TO FOG AND
HAVE PLACE THESE INTO KGFL-PSF WITH A `VCFG` INTO KALB-KPOU
OVERNIGHT.

ANY FOG SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO OF SUNRISE AS
ANOTHER VFR SCT-BKN MID LEVEL DECK OF CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED.  ANOTHER
PIECE OF ENERGY ALOFT AROUND THIS PERSISTENT TROUGH APPROACHES IN
THE AFTERNOON.  THIS MAY TOUCH OFF SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION AS WE
WILL INCLUDE A VCSH.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A LARGE UPPER AIR LOW WILL REMAIN OVER OUR REGION FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK. WHILE WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY WASHOUT DAYS (WET
FLAG)...THERE WILL BE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
STARTING ON WEDNESDAY. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
WIDELY SCATTERED ON WEDNESDAY...SCATTERED THURSDAY...SCATTERED FROM
THE MOHAWK VALLEY SOUTHWARD FRIDAY...ISOLATED NORTH OF THE MOHAWK
RIVER. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL TAKE PLACE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

GENERALLY SPEAKING...AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW A
QUARTER OF INCH. HOWEVER...LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AN INCH ARE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS.

NIGHTS WILL GENERALLY BE DRY WITH A FULL RECOVERY AND PATCHY GROUND
FOG.

THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM EACH NIGHT AND MORNING...BECOMING
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5 TO 15 MPH BY AFTERNOON AFTERNOON.

RH VALUES WILL FALL TO THE 40-55 PERCENT RANGE EACH AFTERNOON...BUT
LOCALLY WILL SPIKE HIGHER IN ANY SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE QUITE VARIABLE ACROSS OUR REGION ON
MONDAY...GENERALLY RANGING FROM AROUND AN INCH TO LOCALLY MORE THAN
3 INCHES...HIGHEST ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES.

RAINFALL ACTUALLY IMPACTED SOME RIVERS...PRODUCING SOME RAPID
INCREASES ON SOME RIVERS AND STREAMS. THE WILLIAMS RIVER AT
ROCKINGHAM BRIEFLY WENT ABOUT A FOOT ABOVE FLOOD YESTERDAY LAST
EVENING.

WITH NO MEASURABLE RAINFALL TODAY...RIVERS AND STREAMS WERE ABLE TO
CREST AND BEGIN TO RECEDE. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS DESPITE AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TOMORROW LOOKS TO BE WIDELY
SCATTERED...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. THURSDAY/S COVERAGE
LOOKS A LITTLE MORE EXTENSIVE AS FRIDAY/S AND EVEN SATURDAY/S.
UNLESS HEAVY RAINFALL FALLS IN A CRITICAL RUNOFF AREA...MOST RIVERS
SHOULD NOT RESPOND TO THIS SCATTERED RAINFALL AS AVERAGE BASIN
RAINFALLS SHOULD GENERALLY BE A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY WHICH WILL ALLOW RIVER AND STREAM
LEVELS TO RECEDE. HOWEVER...THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED THIS
WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS LOW WILL WOBBLE
OVER EASTERN CANADA AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT. THE LOW WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND HOWEVER THE THREAT FOR
STORMS WILL CONTINUE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/BGM
NEAR TERM...IAA/BGM
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV







000
FXUS61 KALY 300552
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
152 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A PARTLY CLOUDY COOL NIGHT WITH PATCHY
FOG ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL TOUCH OFF SOME
AFTERNOON  WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. A
STRONGER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COME THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
OVERALL FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. REGION REMAINS UNDER THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION AT THE
SURFACE. ONLY SOME MINOR UPDATES WHERE MADE MAINLY BASED ON
OBSERVATIONAL DATA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LARGE CLOSED LOW
AS IT WOBBLES OVER EASTERN CANADA AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL
ROTATE ABOUT IT. THIS UPPER AIR LOW WILL PROVIDE A BROAD CYCLONIC AS
WELL AS A COLD POOL ALOFT...BOTH OF WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH THE HELP
OF DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY REACHING THE UPPER
70S TO AROUND 80 AT BEST IN THE VALLEYS...UPPER 60S TO MID 70S
HIGHER TERRAIN THURSDAY...A COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH MORE
PATCHY FOG AND TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE
COLDEST SPOTS TO NEAR 60 RIGHT IN THE CAPITAL REGION...50S
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MEAN UPPER TROUGH AXIS REMAINS WEST OF THE REGION...AND UPPER ENERGY
GRADUALLY APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES.  SLOWLY INCREASING
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD PROVIDE
INCREASING LOW LEVEL FORCING ALONG WITH THE WEAK UPPER DYNAMICS FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST COVERAGE OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE IN THE AFTERNOONS AND
EVENINGS...WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY AT NIGHT.  THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD SEE THE BEST COVERAGE SATURDAY...CENTRAL
AREAS SUNDAY AND EASTERN AREAS MONDAY.

THE UPPER ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO EXIT BY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
BRINGING WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT EXITING EAST.  SLIGHT DRYING
TUESDAY...NOT NECESSARILY COOLING... AS MORE BROAD UPPER TROUGHING
CONTINUES OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WITH THE MEAN AXIS STILL WEST
OF OUR REGION. STILL...WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE EASTERN PORTION
OF THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH WOULD SUGGEST INTERVALS OF MID AND UPPER
CLOUDINESS EVEN IF THERE IS SOME SLIGHT DRYING AT LOW LEVELS MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.  HIGHS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION GIVEN A SCT-BKN MID LEVEL
DECK OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE TAF LOCATIONS.  OVERNIGHT...WHERE BREAKS
DO OCCUR WE MIGHT SEE SOME MVFR VIS ISSUES WITH RESPECT TO FOG AND
HAVE PLACE THESE INTO KGFL-PSF WITH A `VCFG` INTO KALB-KPOU
OVERNIGHT.

ANY FOG SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO OF SUNRISE AS
ANOTHER VFR SCT-BKN MID LEVEL DECK OF CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED.  ANOTHER
PIECE OF ENERGY ALOFT AROUND THIS PERSISTENT TROUGH APPROACHES IN
THE AFTERNOON.  THIS MAY TOUCH OFF SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION AS WE
WILL INCLUDE A VCSH.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A LARGE UPPER AIR LOW WILL REMAIN OVER OUR REGION FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK. WHILE WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY WASHOUT DAYS (WET
FLAG)...THERE WILL BE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
STARTING ON WEDNESDAY. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
WIDELY SCATTERED ON WEDNESDAY...SCATTERED THURSDAY...SCATTERED FROM
THE MOHAWK VALLEY SOUTHWARD FRIDAY...ISOLATED NORTH OF THE MOHAWK
RIVER. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL TAKE PLACE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

GENERALLY SPEAKING...AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW A
QUARTER OF INCH. HOWEVER...LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AN INCH ARE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS.

NIGHTS WILL GENERALLY BE DRY WITH A FULL RECOVERY AND PATCHY GROUND
FOG.

THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM EACH NIGHT AND MORNING...BECOMING
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5 TO 15 MPH BY AFTERNOON AFTERNOON.

RH VALUES WILL FALL TO THE 40-55 PERCENT RANGE EACH AFTERNOON...BUT
LOCALLY WILL SPIKE HIGHER IN ANY SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE QUITE VARIABLE ACROSS OUR REGION ON
MONDAY...GENERALLY RANGING FROM AROUND AN INCH TO LOCALLY MORE THAN
3 INCHES...HIGHEST ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES.

RAINFALL ACTUALLY IMPACTED SOME RIVERS...PRODUCING SOME RAPID
INCREASES ON SOME RIVERS AND STREAMS. THE WILLIAMS RIVER AT
ROCKINGHAM BRIEFLY WENT ABOUT A FOOT ABOVE FLOOD YESTERDAY LAST
EVENING.

WITH NO MEASURABLE RAINFALL TODAY...RIVERS AND STREAMS WERE ABLE TO
CREST AND BEGIN TO RECEDE. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS DESPITE AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TOMORROW LOOKS TO BE WIDELY
SCATTERED...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. THURSDAY/S COVERAGE
LOOKS A LITTLE MORE EXTENSIVE AS FRIDAY/S AND EVEN SATURDAY/S.
UNLESS HEAVY RAINFALL FALLS IN A CRITICAL RUNOFF AREA...MOST RIVERS
SHOULD NOT RESPOND TO THIS SCATTERED RAINFALL AS AVERAGE BASIN
RAINFALLS SHOULD GENERALLY BE A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY WHICH WILL ALLOW RIVER AND STREAM
LEVELS TO RECEDE. HOWEVER...THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED THIS
WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS LOW WILL WOBBLE
OVER EASTERN CANADA AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT. THE LOW WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND HOWEVER THE THREAT FOR
STORMS WILL CONTINUE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/BGM
NEAR TERM...IAA/BGM
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV








000
FXUS61 KALY 300248
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1048 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A PARTLY CLOUDY COOL NIGHT WITH PATCHY
FOG ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL TOUCH OFF SOME
AFTERNOON  WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. A
STRONGER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COME THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT...CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BE RATHER PREVALENT ACROSS THE
REGION WITH A FEW MORE BREAKS NOW OCCURRING PER THE REGIONAL
METARS AND THE LAST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY. SO WITH THIS
UPDATE DID KEEP CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION
/PTCLOUDY/ AND LEFT THE PATCHY FOG IN THE GRIDS FOR NOW. SOME
BREAKS COULD ALLOW FOR DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS TO GET RATHER
CLOSE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE RECENT WET PERIOD OF WEATHER AND
MOIST GROUNDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LARGE CLOSED LOW
AS IT WOBBLES OVER EASTERN CANADA AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL
ROTATE ABOUT IT. THIS UPPER AIR LOW WILL PROVIDE A BROAD CYCLONIC AS
WELL AS A COLD POOL ALOFT...BOTH OF WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH THE HELP
OF DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY REACHING THE UPPER
70S TO AROUND 80 AT BEST IN THE VALLEYS...UPPER 60S TO MID 70S
HIGHER TERRAIN THURSDAY...A COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH MORE
PATCHY FOG AND TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE
COLDEST SPOTS TO NEAR 60 RIGHT IN THE CAPITAL REGION...50S
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MEAN UPPER TROUGH AXIS REMAINS WEST OF THE REGION...AND UPPER ENERGY
GRADUALLY APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES.  SLOWLY INCREASING
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD PROVIDE
INCREASING LOW LEVEL FORCING ALONG WITH THE WEAK UPPER DYNAMICS FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST COVERAGE OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE IN THE AFTERNOONS AND
EVENINGS...WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY AT NIGHT.  THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD SEE THE BEST COVERAGE SATURDAY...CENTRAL
AREAS SUNDAY AND EASTERN AREAS MONDAY.

THE UPPER ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO EXIT BY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
BRINGING WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT EXITING EAST.  SLIGHT DRYING
TUESDAY...NOT NECESSARILY COOLING... AS MORE BROAD UPPER TROUGHING
CONTINUES OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WITH THE MEAN AXIS STILL WEST
OF OUR REGION. STILL...WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE EASTERN PORTION
OF THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH WOULD SUGGEST INTERVALS OF MID AND UPPER
CLOUDINESS EVEN IF THERE IS SOME SLIGHT DRYING AT LOW LEVELS MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.  HIGHS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION GIVEN A SCT-BKN MID LEVEL
DECK OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE TAF LOCATIONS.  OVERNIGHT...WHERE BREAKS
DO OCCUR WE MIGHT SEE SOME MVFR VIS ISSUES WITH RESPECT TO FOG AND
HAVE PLACE THESE INTO KGFL-PSF WITH A `VCFG` INTO KALB-KPOU
OVERNIGHT.

ANY FOG SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO OF SUNRISE AS
ANOTHER VFR SCT-BKN MID LEVEL DECK OF CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED.  ANOTHER
PIECE OF ENERGY ALOFT AROUND THIS PERSISTENT TROUGH APPROACHES IN
THE AFTERNOON.  THIS MAY TOUCH OFF SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION AS WE
WILL INCLUDE A VCSH.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A LARGE UPPER AIR LOW WILL REMAIN OVER OUR REGION FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK. WHILE WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY WASHOUT DAYS (WET
FLAG)...THERE WILL BE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
STARTING ON WEDNESDAY. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
WIDELY SCATTERED ON WEDNESDAY...SCATTERED THURSDAY...SCATTERED FROM
THE MOHAWK VALLEY SOUTHWARD FRIDAY...ISOLATED NORTH OF THE MOHAWK
RIVER. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL TAKE PLACE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

GENERALLY SPEAKING...AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW A
QUARTER OF INCH. HOWEVER...LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AN INCH ARE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS.

NIGHTS WILL GENERALLY BE DRY WITH A FULL RECOVERY AND PATCHY GROUND
FOG.

THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM EACH NIGHT AND MORNING...BECOMING
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5 TO 15 MPH BY AFTERNOON AFTERNOON.

RH VALUES WILL FALL TO THE 40-55 PERCENT RANGE EACH AFTERNOON...BUT
LOCALLY WILL SPIKE HIGHER IN ANY SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE QUITE VARIABLE ACROSS OUR REGION ON
MONDAY...GENERALLY RANGING FROM AROUND AN INCH TO LOCALLY MORE THAN
3 INCHES...HIGHEST ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES.

RAINFALL ACTUALLY IMPACTED SOME RIVERS...PRODUCING SOME RAPID
INCREASES ON SOME RIVERS AND STREAMS. THE WILLIAMS RIVER AT
ROCKINGHAM BRIEFLY WENT ABOUT A FOOT ABOVE FLOOD YESTERDAY LAST
EVENING.

WITH NO MEASURABLE RAINFALL TODAY...RIVERS AND STREAMS WERE ABLE TO
CREST AND BEGIN TO RECEDE. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS DESPITE AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TOMORROW LOOKS TO BE WIDELY
SCATTERED...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. THURSDAY/S COVERAGE
LOOKS A LITTLE MORE EXTENSIVE AS FRIDAY/S AND EVEN SATURDAY/S.
UNLESS HEAVY RAINFALL FALLS IN A CRITICAL RUNOFF AREA...MOST RIVERS
SHOULD NOT RESPOND TO THIS SCATTERED RAINFALL AS AVERAGE BASIN
RAINFALLS SHOULD GENERALLY BE A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY WHICH WILL ALLOW RIVER AND STREAM
LEVELS TO RECEDE. HOWEVER...THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED THIS
WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS LOW WILL WOBBLE
OVER EASTERN CANADA AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT. THE LOW WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND HOWEVER THE THREAT FOR
STORMS WILL CONTINUE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV


FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY





000
FXUS61 KALY 300248
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1048 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A PARTLY CLOUDY COOL NIGHT WITH PATCHY
FOG ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL TOUCH OFF SOME
AFTERNOON  WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. A
STRONGER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COME THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT...CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BE RATHER PREVALENT ACROSS THE
REGION WITH A FEW MORE BREAKS NOW OCCURRING PER THE REGIONAL
METARS AND THE LAST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY. SO WITH THIS
UPDATE DID KEEP CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION
/PTCLOUDY/ AND LEFT THE PATCHY FOG IN THE GRIDS FOR NOW. SOME
BREAKS COULD ALLOW FOR DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS TO GET RATHER
CLOSE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE RECENT WET PERIOD OF WEATHER AND
MOIST GROUNDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LARGE CLOSED LOW
AS IT WOBBLES OVER EASTERN CANADA AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL
ROTATE ABOUT IT. THIS UPPER AIR LOW WILL PROVIDE A BROAD CYCLONIC AS
WELL AS A COLD POOL ALOFT...BOTH OF WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH THE HELP
OF DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY REACHING THE UPPER
70S TO AROUND 80 AT BEST IN THE VALLEYS...UPPER 60S TO MID 70S
HIGHER TERRAIN THURSDAY...A COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH MORE
PATCHY FOG AND TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE
COLDEST SPOTS TO NEAR 60 RIGHT IN THE CAPITAL REGION...50S
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MEAN UPPER TROUGH AXIS REMAINS WEST OF THE REGION...AND UPPER ENERGY
GRADUALLY APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES.  SLOWLY INCREASING
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD PROVIDE
INCREASING LOW LEVEL FORCING ALONG WITH THE WEAK UPPER DYNAMICS FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST COVERAGE OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE IN THE AFTERNOONS AND
EVENINGS...WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY AT NIGHT.  THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD SEE THE BEST COVERAGE SATURDAY...CENTRAL
AREAS SUNDAY AND EASTERN AREAS MONDAY.

THE UPPER ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO EXIT BY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
BRINGING WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT EXITING EAST.  SLIGHT DRYING
TUESDAY...NOT NECESSARILY COOLING... AS MORE BROAD UPPER TROUGHING
CONTINUES OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WITH THE MEAN AXIS STILL WEST
OF OUR REGION. STILL...WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE EASTERN PORTION
OF THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH WOULD SUGGEST INTERVALS OF MID AND UPPER
CLOUDINESS EVEN IF THERE IS SOME SLIGHT DRYING AT LOW LEVELS MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.  HIGHS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION GIVEN A SCT-BKN MID LEVEL
DECK OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE TAF LOCATIONS.  OVERNIGHT...WHERE BREAKS
DO OCCUR WE MIGHT SEE SOME MVFR VIS ISSUES WITH RESPECT TO FOG AND
HAVE PLACE THESE INTO KGFL-PSF WITH A `VCFG` INTO KALB-KPOU
OVERNIGHT.

ANY FOG SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO OF SUNRISE AS
ANOTHER VFR SCT-BKN MID LEVEL DECK OF CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED.  ANOTHER
PIECE OF ENERGY ALOFT AROUND THIS PERSISTENT TROUGH APPROACHES IN
THE AFTERNOON.  THIS MAY TOUCH OFF SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION AS WE
WILL INCLUDE A VCSH.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A LARGE UPPER AIR LOW WILL REMAIN OVER OUR REGION FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK. WHILE WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY WASHOUT DAYS (WET
FLAG)...THERE WILL BE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
STARTING ON WEDNESDAY. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
WIDELY SCATTERED ON WEDNESDAY...SCATTERED THURSDAY...SCATTERED FROM
THE MOHAWK VALLEY SOUTHWARD FRIDAY...ISOLATED NORTH OF THE MOHAWK
RIVER. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL TAKE PLACE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

GENERALLY SPEAKING...AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW A
QUARTER OF INCH. HOWEVER...LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AN INCH ARE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS.

NIGHTS WILL GENERALLY BE DRY WITH A FULL RECOVERY AND PATCHY GROUND
FOG.

THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM EACH NIGHT AND MORNING...BECOMING
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5 TO 15 MPH BY AFTERNOON AFTERNOON.

RH VALUES WILL FALL TO THE 40-55 PERCENT RANGE EACH AFTERNOON...BUT
LOCALLY WILL SPIKE HIGHER IN ANY SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE QUITE VARIABLE ACROSS OUR REGION ON
MONDAY...GENERALLY RANGING FROM AROUND AN INCH TO LOCALLY MORE THAN
3 INCHES...HIGHEST ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES.

RAINFALL ACTUALLY IMPACTED SOME RIVERS...PRODUCING SOME RAPID
INCREASES ON SOME RIVERS AND STREAMS. THE WILLIAMS RIVER AT
ROCKINGHAM BRIEFLY WENT ABOUT A FOOT ABOVE FLOOD YESTERDAY LAST
EVENING.

WITH NO MEASURABLE RAINFALL TODAY...RIVERS AND STREAMS WERE ABLE TO
CREST AND BEGIN TO RECEDE. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS DESPITE AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TOMORROW LOOKS TO BE WIDELY
SCATTERED...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. THURSDAY/S COVERAGE
LOOKS A LITTLE MORE EXTENSIVE AS FRIDAY/S AND EVEN SATURDAY/S.
UNLESS HEAVY RAINFALL FALLS IN A CRITICAL RUNOFF AREA...MOST RIVERS
SHOULD NOT RESPOND TO THIS SCATTERED RAINFALL AS AVERAGE BASIN
RAINFALLS SHOULD GENERALLY BE A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY WHICH WILL ALLOW RIVER AND STREAM
LEVELS TO RECEDE. HOWEVER...THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED THIS
WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS LOW WILL WOBBLE
OVER EASTERN CANADA AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT. THE LOW WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND HOWEVER THE THREAT FOR
STORMS WILL CONTINUE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV


FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY




000
FXUS61 KOKX 300225
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1025 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OFFSHORE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON THURSDAY WILL
GRADUALLY WORK WEST TOWARD THE COAST THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH
MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG IT. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO DISSIPATE AND WIND HAS BECOME NEAR CALM
ACROSS SOME OUTLYING LOCATIONS. THIS HAS LEAD TO TEMPERATURES NOW
FALLING OFF MORE QUICKLY...AND IN SOME CASES BELOW THE FORECAST
LOWS. SO HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES. DRY AIR REMAINS IN PLACE WITH
DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN THE MODELS WHETHER THERE WILL
BE SUFFICIENT LOW-MID LEVEL INSTABILITY AND PASSING OF WEAK
700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE WILL PROMOTE SPRINKLES TO MAYBE ISOLD
SHRA/TSTM ACROSS INTERIOR ZONES WEDNESDAY. THE NAM IS THE MOST
BULLISH FOLLOWED BY THE SREF...THE ECMWF IS DRY AND THE CMC REG
AND GFS SUGGEST LIMITING TO WESTERN ORANGE COUNTY. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE THE MID LEVEL CAP THAT DEVELOPS MIGHT
NOT ERODE...EVEN OVER ORANGE COUNTY. THUS...FOR NOW HAVE OPTED
FOR A DRY FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY FOR ALL BUT THE NW 1/2 OF ORANGE
COUNTY...WHERE HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

HOWEVER...WITH WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AROUND 7500-8500 FT...AND
500 HPA TEMPERATURES AROUND -15C IT SHOULD NOT TAKE TO MUCH CLOUD
DEPTH TO GET LIGHTNING AND/OR SMALL HAIL/GRAUPEL...SO WENT WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER THERE AS WELL. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...WHERE THE CAP IS FORECAST TO BE A BIT STRONGER THAN
OVER NW ORANGE COUNTY...THE QUESTION IS ARE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
STRONG ENOUGH TO PROMOTE SPRINKLES UNDER THE CAP. IF THIS WERE THE
COOL SEASON WOULD BE INCLINED TO SAY YES...BUT NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO DO SO IN THE WARM SEASON...AS MODELS ON OCCASION OVERDO
THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY DURING THIS TIME OF YEAR.

ELSEWHERE WOULD EXPECT TO SEE SOME INSTABILITY CLOUDS LIKE
TODAY...SO HAVE LOWERED HIGHS A TAD FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...CONSISTENT WITH A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND MIXING DOWN FROM 875 HPA...EXCEPT 850 HPA
NW ZONES PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE EXITING TO THE NE AND MID LEVEL INVERSION
WEAKER THAN TONIGHT...WOULD EXPECT CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE DURING THE
EVENING...SO DO EXPECT SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
BASED ON THIS USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES FOR LOWS...WITH VALUES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED ANOMALOUS SUMMERTIME PATTERN FEATURES A TROUGH
ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA...WITH RIDGING OUT WEST AND ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS BLOCKING PATTERN WILL RESULT IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH GRADUALLY FILLING AND WORKING EAST AT THE END OF
THE PERIOD AS AN UPSTREAM KICKER MOVES INTO CENTRAL CANADA. THERE
ARE CLEARLY TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE GLOBAL MODEL SUITE WITH
HOW QUICKLY THIS OCCURS...AS WELL AS WITH AN OFFSHORE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT RETROGRADES WEST IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT RISES ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD THU INTO SAT. THE LATTER OF WHICH COULD BRING A
BOUT OF STEADY RAINS INTO THE REGION FRI NIGHT INTO THE SAT. THE 12Z
ECMWF AND 12Z GGEM REMAIN THE MOST AGGRESSIVE SOLUTIONS. THE
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOE A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT...BUT THERE
REMAINS A DECENT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE LOCATION OF THE
FRONTAL WAVE AND THE BOUNDARY.

FOR THU INTO FRI...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED TO THE EAST WITH A
RETURN SLY FLOW. AIRMASS REMAINS FAIRLY DRY IN THE LOW-LEVELS WITH
ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND WEAK TO MODERATE SHEAR. OVERALL CHANCES
FOR CONVECTION ARE LOW DURING THIS TIME WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEING
IN THE AFT/EVE HOURS IN THE HILLS NW OF NYC...DRIVEN BY DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING. RAIN CHANCES THEN INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
OFFSHORE FRONT AND MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE. ONCE AGAIN
THOUGH...THE SOLUTIONS VARY ON THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT.

FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON THE HEELS
OF THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. THE GGEM AND GFS BOTH ARE SLOWER WITH
THE PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH. THUS...CONVECTION COULD LINGER INTO MON
WITH A WEAK TROUGH/COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH.

TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR AVG THU-FRI...THEN A LITTLE BELOW AVG THIS
WEEKEND VIA CLOUD COVER AND GREATER POP...THEN RETURNING TO NEAR AVG
ON MON. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL ALSO NE ON THE INCREASE WITH DEW POINTS
RISING INTO THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION.

VFR. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT...LASTING INTO WEDS MORNING.
SEA BREEZES THEN DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND PASS THROUGH SOME
TERMINALS. WINDS GENERALLY SW TO S 10KT OR LESS.


.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDS NIGHT...VFR.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM KBDR TO KFRG.
VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS.
.SATURDAY-SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SCT
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WIND AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN QUIET FROM THURSDAY THOUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH AN APPROACHING OFFSHORE FRONT THIS WEEKEND AND THEN WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS THEN EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THIS WEEKEND.
TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME FOR SPECIFICS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/DW
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/MET
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...MALOIT/MET/DW
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/DW








000
FXUS61 KOKX 300225
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1025 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OFFSHORE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON THURSDAY WILL
GRADUALLY WORK WEST TOWARD THE COAST THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH
MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG IT. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO DISSIPATE AND WIND HAS BECOME NEAR CALM
ACROSS SOME OUTLYING LOCATIONS. THIS HAS LEAD TO TEMPERATURES NOW
FALLING OFF MORE QUICKLY...AND IN SOME CASES BELOW THE FORECAST
LOWS. SO HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES. DRY AIR REMAINS IN PLACE WITH
DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN THE MODELS WHETHER THERE WILL
BE SUFFICIENT LOW-MID LEVEL INSTABILITY AND PASSING OF WEAK
700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE WILL PROMOTE SPRINKLES TO MAYBE ISOLD
SHRA/TSTM ACROSS INTERIOR ZONES WEDNESDAY. THE NAM IS THE MOST
BULLISH FOLLOWED BY THE SREF...THE ECMWF IS DRY AND THE CMC REG
AND GFS SUGGEST LIMITING TO WESTERN ORANGE COUNTY. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE THE MID LEVEL CAP THAT DEVELOPS MIGHT
NOT ERODE...EVEN OVER ORANGE COUNTY. THUS...FOR NOW HAVE OPTED
FOR A DRY FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY FOR ALL BUT THE NW 1/2 OF ORANGE
COUNTY...WHERE HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

HOWEVER...WITH WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AROUND 7500-8500 FT...AND
500 HPA TEMPERATURES AROUND -15C IT SHOULD NOT TAKE TO MUCH CLOUD
DEPTH TO GET LIGHTNING AND/OR SMALL HAIL/GRAUPEL...SO WENT WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER THERE AS WELL. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...WHERE THE CAP IS FORECAST TO BE A BIT STRONGER THAN
OVER NW ORANGE COUNTY...THE QUESTION IS ARE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
STRONG ENOUGH TO PROMOTE SPRINKLES UNDER THE CAP. IF THIS WERE THE
COOL SEASON WOULD BE INCLINED TO SAY YES...BUT NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO DO SO IN THE WARM SEASON...AS MODELS ON OCCASION OVERDO
THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY DURING THIS TIME OF YEAR.

ELSEWHERE WOULD EXPECT TO SEE SOME INSTABILITY CLOUDS LIKE
TODAY...SO HAVE LOWERED HIGHS A TAD FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...CONSISTENT WITH A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND MIXING DOWN FROM 875 HPA...EXCEPT 850 HPA
NW ZONES PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE EXITING TO THE NE AND MID LEVEL INVERSION
WEAKER THAN TONIGHT...WOULD EXPECT CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE DURING THE
EVENING...SO DO EXPECT SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
BASED ON THIS USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES FOR LOWS...WITH VALUES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED ANOMALOUS SUMMERTIME PATTERN FEATURES A TROUGH
ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA...WITH RIDGING OUT WEST AND ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS BLOCKING PATTERN WILL RESULT IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH GRADUALLY FILLING AND WORKING EAST AT THE END OF
THE PERIOD AS AN UPSTREAM KICKER MOVES INTO CENTRAL CANADA. THERE
ARE CLEARLY TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE GLOBAL MODEL SUITE WITH
HOW QUICKLY THIS OCCURS...AS WELL AS WITH AN OFFSHORE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT RETROGRADES WEST IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT RISES ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD THU INTO SAT. THE LATTER OF WHICH COULD BRING A
BOUT OF STEADY RAINS INTO THE REGION FRI NIGHT INTO THE SAT. THE 12Z
ECMWF AND 12Z GGEM REMAIN THE MOST AGGRESSIVE SOLUTIONS. THE
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOE A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT...BUT THERE
REMAINS A DECENT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE LOCATION OF THE
FRONTAL WAVE AND THE BOUNDARY.

FOR THU INTO FRI...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED TO THE EAST WITH A
RETURN SLY FLOW. AIRMASS REMAINS FAIRLY DRY IN THE LOW-LEVELS WITH
ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND WEAK TO MODERATE SHEAR. OVERALL CHANCES
FOR CONVECTION ARE LOW DURING THIS TIME WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEING
IN THE AFT/EVE HOURS IN THE HILLS NW OF NYC...DRIVEN BY DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING. RAIN CHANCES THEN INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
OFFSHORE FRONT AND MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE. ONCE AGAIN
THOUGH...THE SOLUTIONS VARY ON THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT.

FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON THE HEELS
OF THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. THE GGEM AND GFS BOTH ARE SLOWER WITH
THE PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH. THUS...CONVECTION COULD LINGER INTO MON
WITH A WEAK TROUGH/COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH.

TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR AVG THU-FRI...THEN A LITTLE BELOW AVG THIS
WEEKEND VIA CLOUD COVER AND GREATER POP...THEN RETURNING TO NEAR AVG
ON MON. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL ALSO NE ON THE INCREASE WITH DEW POINTS
RISING INTO THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION.

VFR. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT...LASTING INTO WEDS MORNING.
SEA BREEZES THEN DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND PASS THROUGH SOME
TERMINALS. WINDS GENERALLY SW TO S 10KT OR LESS.


.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDS NIGHT...VFR.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM KBDR TO KFRG.
VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS.
.SATURDAY-SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SCT
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WIND AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN QUIET FROM THURSDAY THOUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH AN APPROACHING OFFSHORE FRONT THIS WEEKEND AND THEN WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS THEN EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THIS WEEKEND.
TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME FOR SPECIFICS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/DW
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/MET
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...MALOIT/MET/DW
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/DW







000
FXUS61 KBOX 300109
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
909 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY AND LESS HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE
THU AND FRI...BUT MOST OF THE TIME WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER. A
PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN IS POSSIBLE SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND IF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

905 PM UPDATE...

STILL A DECK OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS
PORTIONS THE REGION THIS EVENING.  THESE CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY
DIMINISH IN AREAL COVERAGE OVERNIGHT...BUT IT MAY BE A SLOW PROCESS
FOR SOME LOCATIONS.  REGARDLESS...LIGHT WINDS AND A VERY DRY AIR IN
PLACE FOR LATE JULY WILL ALLOW FOR AN EXCELLENT NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING.

LOWS BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY WILL BE WELL DOWN INTO THE 50S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION AND PERHAPS SOME UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
NORMALLY COOLEST OUTLYING LOCATIONS OF WESTERN MA/SOUTHWEST NH.  THE
MILD SPOTS WILL BE THE URBAN HEAT ISLANDS OF DOWNTOWN
BOSTON/PROVIDENCE...WITH LOW TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ANOMALOUS MID LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA...JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN
ANOTHER DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS
AND SUNSHINE ANTICIPATED AS A MOISTURE-STARVED SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED...BUT
THE SHORTWAVE COULD RESULT IN A PASSING SPRINKLE OR TWO. WE WILL
HAVE TO WATCH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING EAST OF THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK...BUT AT THIS TIME APPEARS IT SHOULD BE FAR
ENOUGH AWAY TO SPARE EVEN THE CAPE/ISLANDS ANY MEASURABLE
RAINFALL.

THIS ANOMALOUS MID LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH NUDGES SLIGHTLY CLOSER
TO OUR REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A MODEST SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
THIS LONGWAVE TROUGH COULD ARRIVE SOON ENOUGH TO GIVE US A PASSING
SHOWER LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE CT
RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
* LOW PRES COULD BRING RAIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY

THE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
CONTINUES TO BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE
LONG TERM. AT THE SURFACE...DURING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND IS IN BETWEEN A HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE...AND A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
RETURN FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL BRING SOME INCREASE IN
MOISTURE TO OUR AREA FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT
A CHANCE FOR MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS. ON THURSDAY THERE WILL ALSO BE
A SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE TROUGH WHICH WOULD ALSO CONTRIBUTE
TO THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR THURSDAY
INDICATE MINIMAL CAPE...SO THUNDER NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
FRIDAY CAPE OVER THE INTERIOR MAY INCREASE TO A FEW HUNDRED
J/KG...SOME ISOLATED THUNDER MAY OCCUR. DAYTIME HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ARE EXPECTED...BUT OVER THE COURSE OF THU AND
FRI SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 60S...BRINGING A
SLIGHTLY MORE MUGGY FEEL.

DURING THIS WEEKEND THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS SOMEWHAT TO THE
WEST...ENABLING A FRONT TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. IN ADDITION A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY MOVE ALONG THE
FRONT. THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR STEADY RAIN TO AT LEAST A
PORTION OF THE REGION. THERE CONTINUE TO BE SOME RUN TO RUN MODEL
DISCREPANCIES REGARDING HOW CLOSE THE FRONT COMES TO OUR
AREA...AND HOW LONG IT LINGERS NEARBY. THE CLOSER THE FRONT COMES
TO THE AREA...THE MORE WIDESPREAD THE RAIN. THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF
HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES IN PRECIP TIMING...BUT BOTH SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF RAIN SATURDAY AND/OR SUNDAY. WILL GO WITH
CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THIS TIMEFRAME. 12Z GFS SHOWS ROBUST
MOISTURE WITH A RIBBON OF UP TO 2 INCH PWATS LINGERING IN OUR
AREA. IF THIS SCENARIO DOES COME TO FRUITION THERE COULD BE SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE WEEKEND. CONSIDERABLE MODEL
SPREAD ON CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY...ECMWF INDICATES FRONT MAY BE
OFFSHORE AT THIS POINT...WILL GO WITH ONLY A LOW CHANCE POP.

DRIER CONDITIONS MAY PREVAIL FOR TUESDAY...AS BY THIS TIME THE FRONT
SHOULD BE FURTHER OFFSHORE.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS OTHER
THAN LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY
PRONE LOCATIONS. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST WEDNESDAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
A SHOWER LATE WEST OF KMHT-KORE-KBDL-KHFD.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS. SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED
FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR. LOW
PROBABILITY OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN -SHRA.  DURING
FRI ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...MAINLY OVER
THE INTERIOR.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR NW...CHANCE FOR
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. MVFR CONDITIONS MORE PROBABLE
TOWARDS EASTERN MA/RI IN -SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. AS OF EARLY THIS EVENING LEFTOVER SWELL HAS
DIMINISHED OVER THE SOUTHERN OUTER COASTAL WATERS...AND SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS OVERNIGHT.

OTHERWISE...WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SEAS MAY BUILD TO 5 FEET ACROSS THE
OUTER COASTAL WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS AN OFFSHORE LOW
PRESSURE MOVES BY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LINGERING ROUGH SEAS ON THE
OUTER WATERS ON THURSDAY FROM AN OFFSHORE LOW SHOULD SUBSIDE DURING
THE DAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS. WINDS BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.  MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER
POSSIBLE WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT AND POSSIBLE WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE.  THERE IS A CHANCE OF SCA SEAS/WINDS DEVELOPING DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...NMB
AVIATION...BELK/NMB
MARINE...BELK/NMB



000
FXUS61 KBOX 300109
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
909 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY AND LESS HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE
THU AND FRI...BUT MOST OF THE TIME WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER. A
PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN IS POSSIBLE SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND IF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

905 PM UPDATE...

STILL A DECK OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS
PORTIONS THE REGION THIS EVENING.  THESE CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY
DIMINISH IN AREAL COVERAGE OVERNIGHT...BUT IT MAY BE A SLOW PROCESS
FOR SOME LOCATIONS.  REGARDLESS...LIGHT WINDS AND A VERY DRY AIR IN
PLACE FOR LATE JULY WILL ALLOW FOR AN EXCELLENT NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING.

LOWS BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY WILL BE WELL DOWN INTO THE 50S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION AND PERHAPS SOME UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
NORMALLY COOLEST OUTLYING LOCATIONS OF WESTERN MA/SOUTHWEST NH.  THE
MILD SPOTS WILL BE THE URBAN HEAT ISLANDS OF DOWNTOWN
BOSTON/PROVIDENCE...WITH LOW TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ANOMALOUS MID LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA...JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN
ANOTHER DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS
AND SUNSHINE ANTICIPATED AS A MOISTURE-STARVED SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED...BUT
THE SHORTWAVE COULD RESULT IN A PASSING SPRINKLE OR TWO. WE WILL
HAVE TO WATCH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING EAST OF THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK...BUT AT THIS TIME APPEARS IT SHOULD BE FAR
ENOUGH AWAY TO SPARE EVEN THE CAPE/ISLANDS ANY MEASURABLE
RAINFALL.

THIS ANOMALOUS MID LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH NUDGES SLIGHTLY CLOSER
TO OUR REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A MODEST SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
THIS LONGWAVE TROUGH COULD ARRIVE SOON ENOUGH TO GIVE US A PASSING
SHOWER LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE CT
RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
* LOW PRES COULD BRING RAIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY

THE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
CONTINUES TO BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE
LONG TERM. AT THE SURFACE...DURING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND IS IN BETWEEN A HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE...AND A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
RETURN FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL BRING SOME INCREASE IN
MOISTURE TO OUR AREA FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT
A CHANCE FOR MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS. ON THURSDAY THERE WILL ALSO BE
A SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE TROUGH WHICH WOULD ALSO CONTRIBUTE
TO THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR THURSDAY
INDICATE MINIMAL CAPE...SO THUNDER NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
FRIDAY CAPE OVER THE INTERIOR MAY INCREASE TO A FEW HUNDRED
J/KG...SOME ISOLATED THUNDER MAY OCCUR. DAYTIME HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ARE EXPECTED...BUT OVER THE COURSE OF THU AND
FRI SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 60S...BRINGING A
SLIGHTLY MORE MUGGY FEEL.

DURING THIS WEEKEND THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS SOMEWHAT TO THE
WEST...ENABLING A FRONT TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. IN ADDITION A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY MOVE ALONG THE
FRONT. THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR STEADY RAIN TO AT LEAST A
PORTION OF THE REGION. THERE CONTINUE TO BE SOME RUN TO RUN MODEL
DISCREPANCIES REGARDING HOW CLOSE THE FRONT COMES TO OUR
AREA...AND HOW LONG IT LINGERS NEARBY. THE CLOSER THE FRONT COMES
TO THE AREA...THE MORE WIDESPREAD THE RAIN. THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF
HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES IN PRECIP TIMING...BUT BOTH SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF RAIN SATURDAY AND/OR SUNDAY. WILL GO WITH
CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THIS TIMEFRAME. 12Z GFS SHOWS ROBUST
MOISTURE WITH A RIBBON OF UP TO 2 INCH PWATS LINGERING IN OUR
AREA. IF THIS SCENARIO DOES COME TO FRUITION THERE COULD BE SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE WEEKEND. CONSIDERABLE MODEL
SPREAD ON CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY...ECMWF INDICATES FRONT MAY BE
OFFSHORE AT THIS POINT...WILL GO WITH ONLY A LOW CHANCE POP.

DRIER CONDITIONS MAY PREVAIL FOR TUESDAY...AS BY THIS TIME THE FRONT
SHOULD BE FURTHER OFFSHORE.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS OTHER
THAN LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY
PRONE LOCATIONS. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST WEDNESDAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
A SHOWER LATE WEST OF KMHT-KORE-KBDL-KHFD.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS. SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED
FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR. LOW
PROBABILITY OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN -SHRA.  DURING
FRI ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...MAINLY OVER
THE INTERIOR.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR NW...CHANCE FOR
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. MVFR CONDITIONS MORE PROBABLE
TOWARDS EASTERN MA/RI IN -SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. AS OF EARLY THIS EVENING LEFTOVER SWELL HAS
DIMINISHED OVER THE SOUTHERN OUTER COASTAL WATERS...AND SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS OVERNIGHT.

OTHERWISE...WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SEAS MAY BUILD TO 5 FEET ACROSS THE
OUTER COASTAL WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS AN OFFSHORE LOW
PRESSURE MOVES BY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LINGERING ROUGH SEAS ON THE
OUTER WATERS ON THURSDAY FROM AN OFFSHORE LOW SHOULD SUBSIDE DURING
THE DAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS. WINDS BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.  MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER
POSSIBLE WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT AND POSSIBLE WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE.  THERE IS A CHANCE OF SCA SEAS/WINDS DEVELOPING DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...NMB
AVIATION...BELK/NMB
MARINE...BELK/NMB




000
FXUS61 KALY 292338
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
738 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A PARTLY CLOUDY COOL NIGHT WITH PATCHY
FOG ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL TOUCH OFF SOME
AFTERNOON  WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. A
STRONGER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COME THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 700 PM EDT...CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BE RATHER PREVALENT ACROSS THE
REGION PER THE REGIONAL METARS AND THE LAST VISIBLE GOES IMAGERY OF
DAYLIGHT.  SO WITH THIS UPDATE DID INCREASE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION /PTCLOUDY/ AND LEFT THE PATCHY FOG IN THE GRIDS FOR
NOW.  SOME BREAKS COULD ALLOW FOR DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS TO GET RATHER
CLOSE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE RECENT WET PERIOD OF WEATHER AND MOIST
GROUNDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LARGE CLOSED LOW
AS IT WOBBLES OVER EASTERN CANADA AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL
ROTATE ABOUT IT. THIS UPPER AIR LOW WILL PROVIDE A BROAD CYCLONIC AS
WELL AS A COLD POOL ALOFT...BOTH OF WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH THE HELP
OF DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY REACHING THE UPPER
70S TO AROUND 80 AT BEST IN THE VALLEYS...UPPER 60S TO MID 70S
HIGHER TERRAIN THURSDAY...A COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH MORE
PATCHY FOG AND TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE
COLDEST SPOTS TO NEAR 60 RIGHT IN THE CAPITAL REGION...50S
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MEAN UPPER TROUGH AXIS REMAINS WEST OF THE REGION...AND UPPER ENERGY
GRADUALLY APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES.  SLOWLY INCREASING
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD PROVIDE
INCREASING LOW LEVEL FORCING ALONG WITH THE WEAK UPPER DYNAMICS FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST COVERAGE OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE IN THE AFTERNOONS AND
EVENINGS...WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY AT NIGHT.  THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD SEE THE BEST COVERAGE SATURDAY...CENTRAL
AREAS SUNDAY AND EASTERN AREAS MONDAY.

THE UPPER ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO EXIT BY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
BRINGING WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT EXITING EAST.  SLIGHT DRYING
TUESDAY...NOT NECESSARILY COOLING... AS MORE BROAD UPPER TROUGHING
CONTINUES OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WITH THE MEAN AXIS STILL WEST
OF OUR REGION. STILL...WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE EASTERN PORTION
OF THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH WOULD SUGGEST INTERVALS OF MID AND UPPER
CLOUDINESS EVEN IF THERE IS SOME SLIGHT DRYING AT LOW LEVELS MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.  HIGHS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION GIVEN A SCT-BKN MID LEVEL
DECK OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE TAF LOCATIONS.  OVERNIGHT...WHERE BREAKS
DO OCCUR WE MIGHT SEE SOME MVFR VIS ISSUES WITH RESPECT TO FOG AND
HAVE PLACE THESE INTO KGFL-PSF WITH A `VCFG` INTO KALB-KPOU
OVERNIGHT.

ANY FOG SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO OF SUNRISE AS
ANOTHER VFR SCT-BKN MID LEVEL DECK OF CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED.  ANOTHER
PIECE OF ENERGY ALOFT AROUND THIS PERSISTENT TROUGH APPROACHES IN
THE AFTERNOON.  THIS MAY TOUCH OFF SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION AS WE
WILL INCLUDE A VCSH.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A LARGE UPPER AIR LOW WILL REMAIN OVER OUR REGION FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK. WHILE WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY WASHOUT DAYS (WET
FLAG)...THERE WILL BE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
STARTING ON WEDNESDAY. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
WIDELY SCATTERED ON WEDNESDAY...SCATTERED THURSDAY...SCATTERED FROM
THE MOHAWK VALLEY SOUTHWARD FRIDAY...ISOLATED NORTH OF THE MOHAWK
RIVER. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL TAKE PLACE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

GENERALLY SPEAKING...AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW A
QUARTER OF INCH. HOWEVER...LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AN INCH ARE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS.

NIGHTS WILL GENERALLY BE DRY WITH A FULL RECOVERY AND PATCHY GROUND
FOG.

THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM EACH NIGHT AND MORNING...BECOMING
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5 TO 15 MPH BY AFTERNOON AFTERNOON.

RH VALUES WILL FALL TO THE 40-55 PERCENT RANGE EACH AFTERNOON...BUT
LOCALLY WILL SPIKE HIGHER IN ANY SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE QUITE VARIABLE ACROSS OUR REGION ON
MONDAY...GENERALLY RANGING FROM AROUND AN INCH TO LOCALLY MORE THAN
3 INCHES...HIGHEST ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES.

RAINFALL ACTUALLY IMPACTED SOME RIVERS...PRODUCING SOME RAPID
INCREASES ON SOME RIVERS AND STREAMS. THE WILLIAMS RIVER AT
ROCKINGHAM BRIEFLY WENT ABOUT A FOOT ABOVE FLOOD YESTERDAY LAST
EVENING.

WITH NO MEASURABLE RAINFALL TODAY...RIVERS AND STREAMS WERE ABLE TO
CREST AND BEGIN TO RECEDE. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS DESPITE AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TOMORROW LOOKS TO BE WIDELY
SCATTERED...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. THURSDAY/S COVERAGE
LOOKS A LITTLE MORE EXTENSIVE AS FRIDAY/S AND EVEN SATURDAY/S.
UNLESS HEAVY RAINFALL FALLS IN A CRITICAL RUNOFF AREA...MOST RIVERS
SHOULD NOT RESPOND TO THIS SCATTERED RAINFALL AS AVERAGE BASIN
RAINFALLS SHOULD GENERALLY BE A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY WHICH WILL ALLOW RIVER AND STREAM
LEVELS TO RECEDE. HOWEVER...THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED THIS
WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS LOW WILL WOBBLE
OVER EASTERN CANADA AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT. THE LOW WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND HOWEVER THE THREAT FOR
STORMS WILL CONTINUE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV


WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY









000
FXUS61 KALY 292338
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
738 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A PARTLY CLOUDY COOL NIGHT WITH PATCHY
FOG ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL TOUCH OFF SOME
AFTERNOON  WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. A
STRONGER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COME THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 700 PM EDT...CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BE RATHER PREVALENT ACROSS THE
REGION PER THE REGIONAL METARS AND THE LAST VISIBLE GOES IMAGERY OF
DAYLIGHT.  SO WITH THIS UPDATE DID INCREASE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION /PTCLOUDY/ AND LEFT THE PATCHY FOG IN THE GRIDS FOR
NOW.  SOME BREAKS COULD ALLOW FOR DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS TO GET RATHER
CLOSE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE RECENT WET PERIOD OF WEATHER AND MOIST
GROUNDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LARGE CLOSED LOW
AS IT WOBBLES OVER EASTERN CANADA AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL
ROTATE ABOUT IT. THIS UPPER AIR LOW WILL PROVIDE A BROAD CYCLONIC AS
WELL AS A COLD POOL ALOFT...BOTH OF WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH THE HELP
OF DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY REACHING THE UPPER
70S TO AROUND 80 AT BEST IN THE VALLEYS...UPPER 60S TO MID 70S
HIGHER TERRAIN THURSDAY...A COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH MORE
PATCHY FOG AND TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE
COLDEST SPOTS TO NEAR 60 RIGHT IN THE CAPITAL REGION...50S
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MEAN UPPER TROUGH AXIS REMAINS WEST OF THE REGION...AND UPPER ENERGY
GRADUALLY APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES.  SLOWLY INCREASING
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD PROVIDE
INCREASING LOW LEVEL FORCING ALONG WITH THE WEAK UPPER DYNAMICS FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST COVERAGE OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE IN THE AFTERNOONS AND
EVENINGS...WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY AT NIGHT.  THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD SEE THE BEST COVERAGE SATURDAY...CENTRAL
AREAS SUNDAY AND EASTERN AREAS MONDAY.

THE UPPER ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO EXIT BY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
BRINGING WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT EXITING EAST.  SLIGHT DRYING
TUESDAY...NOT NECESSARILY COOLING... AS MORE BROAD UPPER TROUGHING
CONTINUES OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WITH THE MEAN AXIS STILL WEST
OF OUR REGION. STILL...WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE EASTERN PORTION
OF THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH WOULD SUGGEST INTERVALS OF MID AND UPPER
CLOUDINESS EVEN IF THERE IS SOME SLIGHT DRYING AT LOW LEVELS MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.  HIGHS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION GIVEN A SCT-BKN MID LEVEL
DECK OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE TAF LOCATIONS.  OVERNIGHT...WHERE BREAKS
DO OCCUR WE MIGHT SEE SOME MVFR VIS ISSUES WITH RESPECT TO FOG AND
HAVE PLACE THESE INTO KGFL-PSF WITH A `VCFG` INTO KALB-KPOU
OVERNIGHT.

ANY FOG SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO OF SUNRISE AS
ANOTHER VFR SCT-BKN MID LEVEL DECK OF CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED.  ANOTHER
PIECE OF ENERGY ALOFT AROUND THIS PERSISTENT TROUGH APPROACHES IN
THE AFTERNOON.  THIS MAY TOUCH OFF SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION AS WE
WILL INCLUDE A VCSH.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A LARGE UPPER AIR LOW WILL REMAIN OVER OUR REGION FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK. WHILE WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY WASHOUT DAYS (WET
FLAG)...THERE WILL BE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
STARTING ON WEDNESDAY. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
WIDELY SCATTERED ON WEDNESDAY...SCATTERED THURSDAY...SCATTERED FROM
THE MOHAWK VALLEY SOUTHWARD FRIDAY...ISOLATED NORTH OF THE MOHAWK
RIVER. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL TAKE PLACE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

GENERALLY SPEAKING...AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW A
QUARTER OF INCH. HOWEVER...LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AN INCH ARE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS.

NIGHTS WILL GENERALLY BE DRY WITH A FULL RECOVERY AND PATCHY GROUND
FOG.

THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM EACH NIGHT AND MORNING...BECOMING
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5 TO 15 MPH BY AFTERNOON AFTERNOON.

RH VALUES WILL FALL TO THE 40-55 PERCENT RANGE EACH AFTERNOON...BUT
LOCALLY WILL SPIKE HIGHER IN ANY SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE QUITE VARIABLE ACROSS OUR REGION ON
MONDAY...GENERALLY RANGING FROM AROUND AN INCH TO LOCALLY MORE THAN
3 INCHES...HIGHEST ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES.

RAINFALL ACTUALLY IMPACTED SOME RIVERS...PRODUCING SOME RAPID
INCREASES ON SOME RIVERS AND STREAMS. THE WILLIAMS RIVER AT
ROCKINGHAM BRIEFLY WENT ABOUT A FOOT ABOVE FLOOD YESTERDAY LAST
EVENING.

WITH NO MEASURABLE RAINFALL TODAY...RIVERS AND STREAMS WERE ABLE TO
CREST AND BEGIN TO RECEDE. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS DESPITE AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TOMORROW LOOKS TO BE WIDELY
SCATTERED...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. THURSDAY/S COVERAGE
LOOKS A LITTLE MORE EXTENSIVE AS FRIDAY/S AND EVEN SATURDAY/S.
UNLESS HEAVY RAINFALL FALLS IN A CRITICAL RUNOFF AREA...MOST RIVERS
SHOULD NOT RESPOND TO THIS SCATTERED RAINFALL AS AVERAGE BASIN
RAINFALLS SHOULD GENERALLY BE A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY WHICH WILL ALLOW RIVER AND STREAM
LEVELS TO RECEDE. HOWEVER...THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED THIS
WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS LOW WILL WOBBLE
OVER EASTERN CANADA AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT. THE LOW WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND HOWEVER THE THREAT FOR
STORMS WILL CONTINUE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV


WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY










000
FXUS61 KOKX 292337
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
737 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OFFSHORE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON THURSDAY WILL
GRADUALLY WORK WEST TOWARD THE COAST THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH
MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG IT. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
INSTABILITY CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE...WITH DEVELOPING
INVERSION FROM AROUND 750-650 HPA SERVING AS A LIMITING FACTOR.
GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUD COVER LINGERING INTO THE NIGHT...WEIGHED
TEMPERATURE FORECAST TOWARDS WARMER MET GUIDANCE FOR LOWS. TO
ACHIEVE THIS USED A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES AND A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE. LOWS SHOULD BE
AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN THE MODELS WHETHER THERE WILL
BE SUFFICIENT LOW-MID LEVEL INSTABILITY AND PASSING OF WEAK
700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE WILL PROMOTE SPRINKLES TO MAYBE ISOLD
SHRA/TSTM ACROSS INTERIOR ZONES WEDNESDAY. THE NAM IS THE MOST
BULLISH FOLLOWED BY THE SREF...THE ECMWF IS DRY AND THE CMC REG
AND GFS SUGGEST LIMITING TO WESTERN ORANGE COUNTY. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE THE MID LEVEL CAP THAT DEVELOPS MIGHT
NOT ERODE...EVEN OVER ORANGE COUNTY. THUS...FOR NOW HAVE OPTED
FOR A DRY FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY FOR ALL BUT THE NW 1/2 OF ORANGE
COUNTY...WHERE HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

HOWEVER...WITH WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AROUND 7500-8500 FT...AND
500 HPA TEMPERATURES AROUND -15C IT SHOULD NOT TAKE TO MUCH CLOUD
DEPTH TO GET LIGHTNING AND/OR SMALL HAIL/GRAUPEL...SO WENT WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER THERE AS WELL. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...WHERE THE CAP IS FORECAST TO BE A BIT STRONGER THAN
OVER NW ORANGE COUNTY...THE QUESTION IS ARE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
STRONG ENOUGH TO PROMOTE SPRINKLES UNDER THE CAP. IF THIS WERE THE
COOL SEASON WOULD BE INCLINED TO SAY YES...BUT NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO DO SO IN THE WARM SEASON...AS MODELS ON OCCASION OVERDO
THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY DURING THIS TIME OF YEAR.

ELSEWHERE WOULD EXPECT TO SEE SOME INSTABILITY CLOUDS LIKE
TODAY...SO HAVE LOWERED HIGHS A TAD FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...CONSISTENT WITH A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND MIXING DOWN FROM 875 HPA...EXCEPT 850 HPA
NW ZONES PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE EXITING TO THE NE AND MID LEVEL INVERSION
WEAKER THAN TONIGHT...WOULD EXPECT CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE DURING THE
EVENING...SO DO EXPECT SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
BASED ON THIS USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES FOR LOWS...WITH VALUES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED ANOMALOUS SUMMERTIME PATTERN FEATURES A TROUGH
ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA...WITH RIDGING OUT WEST AND ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS BLOCKING PATTERN WILL RESULT IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH GRADUALLY FILLING AND WORKING EAST AT THE END OF
THE PERIOD AS AN UPSTREAM KICKER MOVES INTO CENTRAL CANADA. THERE
ARE CLEARLY TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE GLOBAL MODEL SUITE WITH
HOW QUICKLY THIS OCCURS...AS WELL AS WITH AN OFFSHORE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT RETROGRADES WEST IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT RISES ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD THU INTO SAT. THE LATTER OF WHICH COULD BRING A
BOUT OF STEADY RAINS INTO THE REGION FRI NIGHT INTO THE SAT. THE 12Z
ECMWF AND 12Z GGEM REMAIN THE MOST AGGRESSIVE SOLUTIONS. THE
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOE A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT...BUT THERE
REMAINS A DECENT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE LOCATION OF THE
FRONTAL WAVE AND THE BOUNDARY.

FOR THU INTO FRI...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED TO THE EAST WITH A
RETURN SLY FLOW. AIRMASS REMAINS FAIRLY DRY IN THE LOW-LEVELS WITH
ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND WEAK TO MODERATE SHEAR. OVERALL CHANCES
FOR CONVECTION ARE LOW DURING THIS TIME WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEING
IN THE AFT/EVE HOURS IN THE HILLS NW OF NYC...DRIVEN BY DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING. RAIN CHANCES THEN INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
OFFSHORE FRONT AND MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE. ONCE AGAIN
THOUGH...THE SOLUTIONS VARY ON THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT.

FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON THE HEELS
OF THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. THE GGEM AND GFS BOTH ARE SLOWER WITH
THE PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH. THUS...CONVECTION COULD LINGER INTO MON
WITH A WEAK TROUGH/COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH.

TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR AVG THU-FRI...THEN A LITTLE BELOW AVG THIS
WEEKEND VIA CLOUD COVER AND GREATER POP...THEN RETURNING TO NEAR AVG
ON MON. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL ALSO NE ON THE INCREASE WITH DEW POINTS
RISING INTO THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS EAST OF THE CITY TERMINALS. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE OTHERWISE.

NW TO W WINDS DIMINISHING THIS EVENING...BCMG LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT AND LASTING INTO WEDS MORNING. SEA BREEZES THEN DEVELOP IN
THE AFTERNOON. SW FLOW 10KT OR LESS OUTSIDE OF SEA BREEZES.

  ..NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FORECASTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FORECASTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KEWR FORECASTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KTEB FORECASTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FORECASTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FORECASTER COMMENTS: WINDS MIGHT NOT SHIFT SW THIS EVENING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDS NIGHT...VFR.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM KBDR TO KFRG.
VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS.
.SATURDAY-SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SCT
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WIND AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN QUIET FROM THURSDAY THOUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH AN APPROACHING OFFSHORE FRONT THIS WEEKEND AND THEN WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS THEN EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THIS WEEKEND.
THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME FOR SPECIFICS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/DW
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/MET
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...MALOIT/MET/DW
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/DW





000
FXUS61 KOKX 292337
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
737 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OFFSHORE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON THURSDAY WILL
GRADUALLY WORK WEST TOWARD THE COAST THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH
MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG IT. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
INSTABILITY CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE...WITH DEVELOPING
INVERSION FROM AROUND 750-650 HPA SERVING AS A LIMITING FACTOR.
GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUD COVER LINGERING INTO THE NIGHT...WEIGHED
TEMPERATURE FORECAST TOWARDS WARMER MET GUIDANCE FOR LOWS. TO
ACHIEVE THIS USED A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES AND A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE. LOWS SHOULD BE
AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN THE MODELS WHETHER THERE WILL
BE SUFFICIENT LOW-MID LEVEL INSTABILITY AND PASSING OF WEAK
700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE WILL PROMOTE SPRINKLES TO MAYBE ISOLD
SHRA/TSTM ACROSS INTERIOR ZONES WEDNESDAY. THE NAM IS THE MOST
BULLISH FOLLOWED BY THE SREF...THE ECMWF IS DRY AND THE CMC REG
AND GFS SUGGEST LIMITING TO WESTERN ORANGE COUNTY. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE THE MID LEVEL CAP THAT DEVELOPS MIGHT
NOT ERODE...EVEN OVER ORANGE COUNTY. THUS...FOR NOW HAVE OPTED
FOR A DRY FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY FOR ALL BUT THE NW 1/2 OF ORANGE
COUNTY...WHERE HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

HOWEVER...WITH WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AROUND 7500-8500 FT...AND
500 HPA TEMPERATURES AROUND -15C IT SHOULD NOT TAKE TO MUCH CLOUD
DEPTH TO GET LIGHTNING AND/OR SMALL HAIL/GRAUPEL...SO WENT WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER THERE AS WELL. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...WHERE THE CAP IS FORECAST TO BE A BIT STRONGER THAN
OVER NW ORANGE COUNTY...THE QUESTION IS ARE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
STRONG ENOUGH TO PROMOTE SPRINKLES UNDER THE CAP. IF THIS WERE THE
COOL SEASON WOULD BE INCLINED TO SAY YES...BUT NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO DO SO IN THE WARM SEASON...AS MODELS ON OCCASION OVERDO
THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY DURING THIS TIME OF YEAR.

ELSEWHERE WOULD EXPECT TO SEE SOME INSTABILITY CLOUDS LIKE
TODAY...SO HAVE LOWERED HIGHS A TAD FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...CONSISTENT WITH A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND MIXING DOWN FROM 875 HPA...EXCEPT 850 HPA
NW ZONES PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE EXITING TO THE NE AND MID LEVEL INVERSION
WEAKER THAN TONIGHT...WOULD EXPECT CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE DURING THE
EVENING...SO DO EXPECT SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
BASED ON THIS USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES FOR LOWS...WITH VALUES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED ANOMALOUS SUMMERTIME PATTERN FEATURES A TROUGH
ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA...WITH RIDGING OUT WEST AND ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS BLOCKING PATTERN WILL RESULT IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH GRADUALLY FILLING AND WORKING EAST AT THE END OF
THE PERIOD AS AN UPSTREAM KICKER MOVES INTO CENTRAL CANADA. THERE
ARE CLEARLY TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE GLOBAL MODEL SUITE WITH
HOW QUICKLY THIS OCCURS...AS WELL AS WITH AN OFFSHORE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT RETROGRADES WEST IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT RISES ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD THU INTO SAT. THE LATTER OF WHICH COULD BRING A
BOUT OF STEADY RAINS INTO THE REGION FRI NIGHT INTO THE SAT. THE 12Z
ECMWF AND 12Z GGEM REMAIN THE MOST AGGRESSIVE SOLUTIONS. THE
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOE A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT...BUT THERE
REMAINS A DECENT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE LOCATION OF THE
FRONTAL WAVE AND THE BOUNDARY.

FOR THU INTO FRI...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED TO THE EAST WITH A
RETURN SLY FLOW. AIRMASS REMAINS FAIRLY DRY IN THE LOW-LEVELS WITH
ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND WEAK TO MODERATE SHEAR. OVERALL CHANCES
FOR CONVECTION ARE LOW DURING THIS TIME WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEING
IN THE AFT/EVE HOURS IN THE HILLS NW OF NYC...DRIVEN BY DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING. RAIN CHANCES THEN INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
OFFSHORE FRONT AND MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE. ONCE AGAIN
THOUGH...THE SOLUTIONS VARY ON THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT.

FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON THE HEELS
OF THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. THE GGEM AND GFS BOTH ARE SLOWER WITH
THE PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH. THUS...CONVECTION COULD LINGER INTO MON
WITH A WEAK TROUGH/COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH.

TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR AVG THU-FRI...THEN A LITTLE BELOW AVG THIS
WEEKEND VIA CLOUD COVER AND GREATER POP...THEN RETURNING TO NEAR AVG
ON MON. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL ALSO NE ON THE INCREASE WITH DEW POINTS
RISING INTO THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS EAST OF THE CITY TERMINALS. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE OTHERWISE.

NW TO W WINDS DIMINISHING THIS EVENING...BCMG LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT AND LASTING INTO WEDS MORNING. SEA BREEZES THEN DEVELOP IN
THE AFTERNOON. SW FLOW 10KT OR LESS OUTSIDE OF SEA BREEZES.

  ..NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FORECASTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FORECASTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KEWR FORECASTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KTEB FORECASTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FORECASTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FORECASTER COMMENTS: WINDS MIGHT NOT SHIFT SW THIS EVENING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDS NIGHT...VFR.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM KBDR TO KFRG.
VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS.
.SATURDAY-SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SCT
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WIND AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN QUIET FROM THURSDAY THOUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH AN APPROACHING OFFSHORE FRONT THIS WEEKEND AND THEN WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS THEN EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THIS WEEKEND.
THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME FOR SPECIFICS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/DW
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/MET
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...MALOIT/MET/DW
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/DW






000
FXUS61 KBOX 292335
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
735 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY AND LESS HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE
THU AND FRI...BUT MOST OF THE TIME WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER. A
PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN IS POSSIBLE SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND IF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
7 PM UPDATE...CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. DIURNAL CUMULUS ARE
GRADUALLY DISSIPATING...AND BY MID EVENING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

OVERNIGHT...A DRY AIRMASS...BY LATE JULY STANDARDS...WILL COMBINE
WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS TO RESULT IN AN EXCELLENT
NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING. SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG MAY DEVELOP
LATE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS...BUT NOTHING WIDESPREAD IS
ANTICIPATED. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...MOSTLY IN THE 50S...EXCEPT LOW 60S IN SOME LOCALES NEAR
THE COASTLINE. A FEW SHELTERED LOCALES IN THE FAR INTERIOR MAY DIP
INTO THE UPPER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ANOMALOUS MID LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA...JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN
ANOTHER DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS
AND SUNSHINE ANTICIPATED AS A MOISTURE-STARVED SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED...BUT
THE SHORTWAVE COULD RESULT IN A PASSING SPRINKLE OR TWO. WE WILL
HAVE TO WATCH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING EAST OF THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK...BUT AT THIS TIME APPEARS IT SHOULD BE FAR
ENOUGH AWAY TO SPARE EVEN THE CAPE/ISLANDS ANY MEASURABLE
RAINFALL.

THIS ANOMALOUS MID LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH NUDGES SLIGHTLY CLOSER
TO OUR REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A MODEST SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
THIS LONGWAVE TROUGH COULD ARRIVE SOON ENOUGH TO GIVE US A PASSING
SHOWER LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE CT
RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
* LOW PRES COULD BRING RAIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY

THE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
CONTINUES TO BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE
LONG TERM. AT THE SURFACE...DURING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND IS IN BETWEEN A HIGH PRESURE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE...AND A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
RETURN FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL BRING SOME INCREASE IN
MOISTURE TO OUR AREA FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT
A CHANCE FOR MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS. ON THURSDAY THERE WILL ALSO BE
A SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE TROUGH WHICH WOULD ALSO CONTRIBUTE
TO THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR THURSDAY
INDICATE MINIMAL CAPE...SO THUNDER NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
FRIDAY CAPE OVER THE INTERIOR MAY INCREASE TO A FEW HUNDRED
J/KG...SOME ISOLATED THUNDER MAY OCCUR. DAYTIME HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ARE EXPECTED...BUT OVER THE COURSE OF THU AND
FRI SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 60S...BRINGING A
SLIGHTLY MORE MUGGY FEEL.

DURING THIS WEEKEND THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS SOMEWHAT TO THE
WEST...ENABLING A FRONT TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. IN ADDITION A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY MOVE ALONG THE
FRONT. THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR STEADY RAIN TO AT LEAST A
PORTION OF THE REGION. THERE CONTINUE TO BE SOME RUN TO RUN MODEL
DISCREPANCIES REGARDING HOW CLOSE THE FRONT COMES TO OUR
AREA...AND HOW LONG IT LINGERS NEARBY. THE CLOSER THE FRONT COMES
TO THE AREA...THE MORE WIDESPREAD THE RAIN. THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF
HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES IN PRECIP TIMING...BUT BOTH SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF RAIN SATURDAY AND/OR SUNDAY. WILL GO WITH
CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THIS TIMEFRAME. 12Z GFS SHOWS ROBUST
MOISTURE WITH A RIBBON OF UP TO 2 INCH PWATS LINGERING IN OUR
AREA. IF THIS SCENARIO DOES COME TO FRUITION THERE COULD BE SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE WEEKEND. CONSIDERABLE MODEL
SPREAD ON CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY...ECMWF INDICATES FRONT MAY BE
OFFSHORE AT THIS POINT...WILL GO WITH ONLY A LOW CHANCE POP.

DRIER CONDITIONS MAY PREVAIL FOR TUESDAY...AS BY THIS TIME THE FRONT
SHOULD BE FURTHER OFFSHORE.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS OTHER
THAN LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY
PRONE LOCATIONS. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST WEDNESDAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
A SHOWER LATE WEST OF KMHT-KORE-KBDL-KHFD.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS. SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED
FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR. LOW
PROBABILITY OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN -SHRA.  DURING
FRI ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...MAINLY OVER
THE INTERIOR.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR NW...CHANCE FOR
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. MVFR CONDITIONS MORE PROBABLE
TOWARDS EASTERN MA/RI IN -SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. AS OF EARLY THIS EVENING LEFTOVER SWELL HAS
DIMINISHED OVER THE SOUTHERN OUTER COASTAL WATERS...AND SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS OVERNIGHT.

OTHERWISE...WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SEAS MAY BUILD TO 5 FEET ACROSS THE
OUTER COASTAL WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS AN OFFSHORE LOW
PRESSURE MOVES BY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LINGERING ROUGH SEAS ON THE
OUTER WATERS ON THURSDAY FROM AN OFFSHORE LOW SHOULD SUBSIDE DURING
THE DAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS. WINDS BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.  MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER
POSSIBLE WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT AND POSSIBLE WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE.  THERE IS A CHANCE OF SCA SEAS/WINDS DEVELOPING DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK
NEAR TERM...BELK/NMB
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...NMB
AVIATION...BELK/NMB
MARINE...BELK/NMB




000
FXUS61 KBOX 292335
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
735 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY AND LESS HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE
THU AND FRI...BUT MOST OF THE TIME WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER. A
PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN IS POSSIBLE SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND IF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
7 PM UPDATE...CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. DIURNAL CUMULUS ARE
GRADUALLY DISSIPATING...AND BY MID EVENING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

OVERNIGHT...A DRY AIRMASS...BY LATE JULY STANDARDS...WILL COMBINE
WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS TO RESULT IN AN EXCELLENT
NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING. SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG MAY DEVELOP
LATE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS...BUT NOTHING WIDESPREAD IS
ANTICIPATED. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...MOSTLY IN THE 50S...EXCEPT LOW 60S IN SOME LOCALES NEAR
THE COASTLINE. A FEW SHELTERED LOCALES IN THE FAR INTERIOR MAY DIP
INTO THE UPPER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ANOMALOUS MID LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA...JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN
ANOTHER DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS
AND SUNSHINE ANTICIPATED AS A MOISTURE-STARVED SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED...BUT
THE SHORTWAVE COULD RESULT IN A PASSING SPRINKLE OR TWO. WE WILL
HAVE TO WATCH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING EAST OF THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK...BUT AT THIS TIME APPEARS IT SHOULD BE FAR
ENOUGH AWAY TO SPARE EVEN THE CAPE/ISLANDS ANY MEASURABLE
RAINFALL.

THIS ANOMALOUS MID LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH NUDGES SLIGHTLY CLOSER
TO OUR REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A MODEST SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
THIS LONGWAVE TROUGH COULD ARRIVE SOON ENOUGH TO GIVE US A PASSING
SHOWER LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE CT
RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
* LOW PRES COULD BRING RAIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY

THE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
CONTINUES TO BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE
LONG TERM. AT THE SURFACE...DURING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND IS IN BETWEEN A HIGH PRESURE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE...AND A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
RETURN FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL BRING SOME INCREASE IN
MOISTURE TO OUR AREA FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT
A CHANCE FOR MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS. ON THURSDAY THERE WILL ALSO BE
A SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE TROUGH WHICH WOULD ALSO CONTRIBUTE
TO THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR THURSDAY
INDICATE MINIMAL CAPE...SO THUNDER NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
FRIDAY CAPE OVER THE INTERIOR MAY INCREASE TO A FEW HUNDRED
J/KG...SOME ISOLATED THUNDER MAY OCCUR. DAYTIME HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ARE EXPECTED...BUT OVER THE COURSE OF THU AND
FRI SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 60S...BRINGING A
SLIGHTLY MORE MUGGY FEEL.

DURING THIS WEEKEND THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS SOMEWHAT TO THE
WEST...ENABLING A FRONT TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. IN ADDITION A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY MOVE ALONG THE
FRONT. THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR STEADY RAIN TO AT LEAST A
PORTION OF THE REGION. THERE CONTINUE TO BE SOME RUN TO RUN MODEL
DISCREPANCIES REGARDING HOW CLOSE THE FRONT COMES TO OUR
AREA...AND HOW LONG IT LINGERS NEARBY. THE CLOSER THE FRONT COMES
TO THE AREA...THE MORE WIDESPREAD THE RAIN. THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF
HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES IN PRECIP TIMING...BUT BOTH SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF RAIN SATURDAY AND/OR SUNDAY. WILL GO WITH
CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THIS TIMEFRAME. 12Z GFS SHOWS ROBUST
MOISTURE WITH A RIBBON OF UP TO 2 INCH PWATS LINGERING IN OUR
AREA. IF THIS SCENARIO DOES COME TO FRUITION THERE COULD BE SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE WEEKEND. CONSIDERABLE MODEL
SPREAD ON CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY...ECMWF INDICATES FRONT MAY BE
OFFSHORE AT THIS POINT...WILL GO WITH ONLY A LOW CHANCE POP.

DRIER CONDITIONS MAY PREVAIL FOR TUESDAY...AS BY THIS TIME THE FRONT
SHOULD BE FURTHER OFFSHORE.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS OTHER
THAN LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY
PRONE LOCATIONS. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST WEDNESDAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
A SHOWER LATE WEST OF KMHT-KORE-KBDL-KHFD.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS. SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED
FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR. LOW
PROBABILITY OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN -SHRA.  DURING
FRI ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...MAINLY OVER
THE INTERIOR.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR NW...CHANCE FOR
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. MVFR CONDITIONS MORE PROBABLE
TOWARDS EASTERN MA/RI IN -SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. AS OF EARLY THIS EVENING LEFTOVER SWELL HAS
DIMINISHED OVER THE SOUTHERN OUTER COASTAL WATERS...AND SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS OVERNIGHT.

OTHERWISE...WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SEAS MAY BUILD TO 5 FEET ACROSS THE
OUTER COASTAL WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS AN OFFSHORE LOW
PRESSURE MOVES BY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LINGERING ROUGH SEAS ON THE
OUTER WATERS ON THURSDAY FROM AN OFFSHORE LOW SHOULD SUBSIDE DURING
THE DAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS. WINDS BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.  MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER
POSSIBLE WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT AND POSSIBLE WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE.  THERE IS A CHANCE OF SCA SEAS/WINDS DEVELOPING DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK
NEAR TERM...BELK/NMB
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...NMB
AVIATION...BELK/NMB
MARINE...BELK/NMB



000
FXUS61 KOKX 292053
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
453 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OFFSHORE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON THURSDAY WILL
GRADUALLY WORK WEST TOWARD THE COAST THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH
MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG IT. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
INSTABILITY CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE...WITH DEVELOPING
INVERSION FROM AROUND 750-650 HPA SERVING AS A LIMITING FACTOR.
GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUD COVER LINGERING INTO THE NIGHT...WEIGHED
TEMPERATURE FORECAST TOWARDS WARMER MET GUIDANCE FOR LOWS. TO
ACHIEVE THIS USED A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES AND A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE. LOWS SHOULD BE
AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE METEOROLOGICAL ENHANCEMENT OF
RIP CURRENTS EARLY THIS EVENING AT AREA OCEAN BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN THE MODELS WHETHER THERE WILL
BE SUFFICIENT LOW-MID LEVEL INSTABILITY AND PASSING OF WEAK
700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE WILL PROMOTE SPRINKLES TO MAYBE ISOLD
SHRA/TSTM ACROSS INTERIOR ZONES WEDNESDAY. THE NAM IS THE MOST
BULLISH FOLLOWED BY THE SREF...THE ECMWF IS DRY AND THE CMC REG
AND GFS SUGGEST LIMITING TO WESTERN ORANGE COUNTY. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE THE MID LEVEL CAP THAT DEVELOPS MIGHT
NOT ERODE...EVEN OVER ORANGE COUNTY. THUS...FOR NOW HAVE OPTED
FOR A DRY FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY FOR ALL BUT THE NW 1/2 OF ORANGE
COUNTY...WHERE HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

HOWEVER...WITH WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AROUND 7500-8500 FT...AND
500 HPA TEMPERATURES AROUND -15C IT SHOULD NOT TAKE TO MUCH CLOUD
DEPTH TO GET LIGHTNING AND/OR SMALL HAIL/GRAUPEL...SO WENT WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER THERE AS WELL. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...WHERE THE CAP IS FORECAST TO BE A BIT STRONGER THAN
OVER NW ORANGE COUNTY...THE QUESTION IS ARE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
STRONG ENOUGH TO PROMOTE SPRINKLES UNDER THE CAP. IF THIS WERE THE
COOL SEASON WOULD BE INCLINED TO SAY YES...BUT NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO DO SO IN THE WARM SEASON...AS MODELS ON OCCASION OVERDO
THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY DURING THIS TIME OF YEAR.

ELSEWHERE WOULD EXPECT TO SEE SOME INSTABILITY CLOUDS LIKE
TODAY...SO HAVE LOWERED HIGHS A TAD FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...CONSISTENT WITH A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND MIXING DOWN FROM 875 HPA...EXCEPT 850 HPA
NW ZONES PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE EXITING TO THE NE AND MID LEVEL INVERSION
WEAKER THAN TONIGHT...WOULD EXPECT CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE DURING THE
EVENING...SO DO EXPECT SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
BASED ON THIS USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES FOR LOWS...WITH VALUES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED ANOMALOUS SUMMERTIME PATTERN FEATURES A TROUGH
ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA...WITH RIDGING OUT WEST AND ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS BLOCKING PATTERN WILL RESULT IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH GRADUALLY FILLING AND WORKING EAST AT THE END OF
THE PERIOD AS AN UPSTREAM KICKER MOVES INTO CENTRAL CANADA. THERE
ARE CLEARLY TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE GLOBAL MODEL SUITE WITH
HOW QUICKLY THIS OCCURS...AS WELL AS WITH AN OFFSHORE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT RETROGRADES WEST IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT RISES ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD THU INTO SAT. THE LATTER OF WHICH COULD BRING A
BOUT OF STEADY RAINS INTO THE REGION FRI NIGHT INTO THE SAT. THE 12Z
ECMWF AND 12Z GGEM REMAIN THE MOST AGGRESSIVE SOLUTIONS. THE
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOE A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT...BUT THERE
REMAINS A DECENT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE LOCATION OF THE
FRONTAL WAVE AND THE BOUNDARY.

FOR THU INTO FRI...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED TO THE EAST WITH A
RETURN SLY FLOW. AIRMASS REMAINS FAIRLY DRY IN THE LOW-LEVELS WITH
ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND WEAK TO MODERATE SHEAR. OVERALL CHANCES
FOR CONVECTION ARE LOW DURING THIS TIME WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEING
IN THE AFT/EVE HOURS IN THE HILLS NW OF NYC...DRIVEN BY DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING. RAIN CHANCES THEN INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
OFFSHORE FRONT AND MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE. ONCE AGAIN
THOUGH...THE SOLUTIONS VARY ON THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT.

FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON THE HEELS
OF THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. THE GGEM AND GFS BOTH ARE SLOWER WITH
THE PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH. THUS...CONVECTION COULD LINGER INTO MON
WITH A WEAK TROUGH/COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH.

TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR AVG THU-FRI...THEN A LITTLE BELOW AVG THIS
WEEKEND VIA CLOUD COVER AND GREATER POP...THEN RETURNING TO NEAR AVG
ON MON. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL ALSO NE ON THE INCREASE WITH DEW POINTS
RISING INTO THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS EAST OF THE CITY TERMINALS.

NW TO W WINDS FOR THE CITY TERMINALS AND POINTS WEST. KISP AND
KBDR MAY EXPERIENCE A COUPLE OF WIND SHIFTS WITH THE SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARY REMAINING NEARBY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THIS OCCURRING AT JFK
AS WELL.

VRB WINDS 5 KT OR LESS AT ALL TERMINALS FROM 03-05Z THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. SEA BREEZES QUICKLY DEVELOP LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

..NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FORECASTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS 16-19KT THRU 00Z. CHANCE
THAT SEA BREEZE PUSHES THROUGH WITH A SSW WIND SHIFT SOMEWHERE IN
THE 00Z-02Z TIME FRAME.

KLGA FORECASTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS 16-19KT POSSIBLE THRU
00Z TIMING OF WINDS BACKING WNW COULD BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR TWO.
WINDS MIGHT NOT BACK TO AROUND 300 MAGNETIC AND REMAIN AT OR NORTH
OF 310 MAGNETIC THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

KEWR FORECASTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MIGHT BE ONLY OCCASIONAL. WINDS
COULD BE BACKED TO 260-280 MAGNETIC AT TIMES BEFORE 23Z.

KTEB FORECASTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FORECASTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FORECASTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE COULD RETURN NORTH AND SHIFT
WINDS 240-210 MAGNETIC AS EARLY AS 23Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY...VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE AT KSWF IN THE
AFTERNOON.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM KBDR TO KFRG.
VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS.
.SATURDAY-SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SCT
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL BE 10 KT OR LESS ON THE WATERS AROUND LONG ISLAND
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SEAS ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS WILL BE
4 FT OR LESS AND ON THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS 1 FT OR LESS AS A
RESULT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN QUIET FROM THURSDAY THOUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH AN APPROACHING OFFSHORE FRONT THIS WEEKEND AND THEN WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
IT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS THEN EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

PARTS OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST...HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND THIS
WEEKEND...DEPENDING ON THE POSITION OF AN OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE
AND TIMING OF ANY ASSOCIATED WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS
POTENTIAL IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY...SO IT IS TOO EARLY TO OFFER
SPECIFIC FORECAST DETAILS OR TO MENTION IN HWO.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/DW
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...JC/MPS
MARINE...MALOIT/DW
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/DW







000
FXUS61 KOKX 292053
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
453 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OFFSHORE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON THURSDAY WILL
GRADUALLY WORK WEST TOWARD THE COAST THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH
MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG IT. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
INSTABILITY CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE...WITH DEVELOPING
INVERSION FROM AROUND 750-650 HPA SERVING AS A LIMITING FACTOR.
GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUD COVER LINGERING INTO THE NIGHT...WEIGHED
TEMPERATURE FORECAST TOWARDS WARMER MET GUIDANCE FOR LOWS. TO
ACHIEVE THIS USED A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES AND A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE. LOWS SHOULD BE
AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE METEOROLOGICAL ENHANCEMENT OF
RIP CURRENTS EARLY THIS EVENING AT AREA OCEAN BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN THE MODELS WHETHER THERE WILL
BE SUFFICIENT LOW-MID LEVEL INSTABILITY AND PASSING OF WEAK
700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE WILL PROMOTE SPRINKLES TO MAYBE ISOLD
SHRA/TSTM ACROSS INTERIOR ZONES WEDNESDAY. THE NAM IS THE MOST
BULLISH FOLLOWED BY THE SREF...THE ECMWF IS DRY AND THE CMC REG
AND GFS SUGGEST LIMITING TO WESTERN ORANGE COUNTY. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE THE MID LEVEL CAP THAT DEVELOPS MIGHT
NOT ERODE...EVEN OVER ORANGE COUNTY. THUS...FOR NOW HAVE OPTED
FOR A DRY FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY FOR ALL BUT THE NW 1/2 OF ORANGE
COUNTY...WHERE HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

HOWEVER...WITH WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AROUND 7500-8500 FT...AND
500 HPA TEMPERATURES AROUND -15C IT SHOULD NOT TAKE TO MUCH CLOUD
DEPTH TO GET LIGHTNING AND/OR SMALL HAIL/GRAUPEL...SO WENT WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER THERE AS WELL. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...WHERE THE CAP IS FORECAST TO BE A BIT STRONGER THAN
OVER NW ORANGE COUNTY...THE QUESTION IS ARE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
STRONG ENOUGH TO PROMOTE SPRINKLES UNDER THE CAP. IF THIS WERE THE
COOL SEASON WOULD BE INCLINED TO SAY YES...BUT NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO DO SO IN THE WARM SEASON...AS MODELS ON OCCASION OVERDO
THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY DURING THIS TIME OF YEAR.

ELSEWHERE WOULD EXPECT TO SEE SOME INSTABILITY CLOUDS LIKE
TODAY...SO HAVE LOWERED HIGHS A TAD FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...CONSISTENT WITH A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND MIXING DOWN FROM 875 HPA...EXCEPT 850 HPA
NW ZONES PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE EXITING TO THE NE AND MID LEVEL INVERSION
WEAKER THAN TONIGHT...WOULD EXPECT CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE DURING THE
EVENING...SO DO EXPECT SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
BASED ON THIS USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES FOR LOWS...WITH VALUES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED ANOMALOUS SUMMERTIME PATTERN FEATURES A TROUGH
ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA...WITH RIDGING OUT WEST AND ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS BLOCKING PATTERN WILL RESULT IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH GRADUALLY FILLING AND WORKING EAST AT THE END OF
THE PERIOD AS AN UPSTREAM KICKER MOVES INTO CENTRAL CANADA. THERE
ARE CLEARLY TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE GLOBAL MODEL SUITE WITH
HOW QUICKLY THIS OCCURS...AS WELL AS WITH AN OFFSHORE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT RETROGRADES WEST IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT RISES ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD THU INTO SAT. THE LATTER OF WHICH COULD BRING A
BOUT OF STEADY RAINS INTO THE REGION FRI NIGHT INTO THE SAT. THE 12Z
ECMWF AND 12Z GGEM REMAIN THE MOST AGGRESSIVE SOLUTIONS. THE
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOE A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT...BUT THERE
REMAINS A DECENT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE LOCATION OF THE
FRONTAL WAVE AND THE BOUNDARY.

FOR THU INTO FRI...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED TO THE EAST WITH A
RETURN SLY FLOW. AIRMASS REMAINS FAIRLY DRY IN THE LOW-LEVELS WITH
ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND WEAK TO MODERATE SHEAR. OVERALL CHANCES
FOR CONVECTION ARE LOW DURING THIS TIME WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEING
IN THE AFT/EVE HOURS IN THE HILLS NW OF NYC...DRIVEN BY DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING. RAIN CHANCES THEN INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
OFFSHORE FRONT AND MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE. ONCE AGAIN
THOUGH...THE SOLUTIONS VARY ON THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT.

FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON THE HEELS
OF THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. THE GGEM AND GFS BOTH ARE SLOWER WITH
THE PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH. THUS...CONVECTION COULD LINGER INTO MON
WITH A WEAK TROUGH/COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH.

TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR AVG THU-FRI...THEN A LITTLE BELOW AVG THIS
WEEKEND VIA CLOUD COVER AND GREATER POP...THEN RETURNING TO NEAR AVG
ON MON. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL ALSO NE ON THE INCREASE WITH DEW POINTS
RISING INTO THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS EAST OF THE CITY TERMINALS.

NW TO W WINDS FOR THE CITY TERMINALS AND POINTS WEST. KISP AND
KBDR MAY EXPERIENCE A COUPLE OF WIND SHIFTS WITH THE SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARY REMAINING NEARBY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THIS OCCURRING AT JFK
AS WELL.

VRB WINDS 5 KT OR LESS AT ALL TERMINALS FROM 03-05Z THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. SEA BREEZES QUICKLY DEVELOP LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

..NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FORECASTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS 16-19KT THRU 00Z. CHANCE
THAT SEA BREEZE PUSHES THROUGH WITH A SSW WIND SHIFT SOMEWHERE IN
THE 00Z-02Z TIME FRAME.

KLGA FORECASTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS 16-19KT POSSIBLE THRU
00Z TIMING OF WINDS BACKING WNW COULD BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR TWO.
WINDS MIGHT NOT BACK TO AROUND 300 MAGNETIC AND REMAIN AT OR NORTH
OF 310 MAGNETIC THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

KEWR FORECASTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MIGHT BE ONLY OCCASIONAL. WINDS
COULD BE BACKED TO 260-280 MAGNETIC AT TIMES BEFORE 23Z.

KTEB FORECASTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FORECASTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FORECASTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE COULD RETURN NORTH AND SHIFT
WINDS 240-210 MAGNETIC AS EARLY AS 23Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY...VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE AT KSWF IN THE
AFTERNOON.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM KBDR TO KFRG.
VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS.
.SATURDAY-SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SCT
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL BE 10 KT OR LESS ON THE WATERS AROUND LONG ISLAND
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SEAS ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS WILL BE
4 FT OR LESS AND ON THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS 1 FT OR LESS AS A
RESULT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN QUIET FROM THURSDAY THOUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH AN APPROACHING OFFSHORE FRONT THIS WEEKEND AND THEN WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
IT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS THEN EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

PARTS OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST...HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND THIS
WEEKEND...DEPENDING ON THE POSITION OF AN OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE
AND TIMING OF ANY ASSOCIATED WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS
POTENTIAL IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY...SO IT IS TOO EARLY TO OFFER
SPECIFIC FORECAST DETAILS OR TO MENTION IN HWO.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/DW
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...JC/MPS
MARINE...MALOIT/DW
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/DW






000
FXUS61 KALY 292010
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
304 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A MAINLY CLEAR COOL NIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG
ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL TOUCH OFF SOME AFTERNOON
CLOUDS AND WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. A
STRONGER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COME THURSDAY.


&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT...AN AFTERNOON FEELING MORE LIKE EARLY SEPTEMBER AS
OPPOSED TO LATE JULY. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 70 TO 75 IN THE
VALLEYS...65 TO 70 HIGHER TERRAIN. A FEW PATCHY CLOUDS BLOTTED OUT
THE SUN AT TIMES...AND RANDOM SPRINKLE COULD NOT BE RULED. A
NORTHWEST WIND AVERAGE 5 TO 10 MPH.

THE CLOUDS AND ANY SPRINKLES WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNDOWN.
MOST CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE...THE WIND WILL BECOME NEARLY CALM. THIS
WILL ALL SET US UP FOR A COOL NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES DIPPING TO THE
LOWER 50S ALBANY SOUTHWARD IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...MID OR UPPER 40S
MOST OUTLYING AREAS. THERE WILL BE PATCHES OF FOG...DENSE IN SPOTS
LATE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LARGE CLOSED LOW
AS IT WOBBLES OVER EASTERN CANADA AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL
ROTATE ABOUT IT. THIS UPPER AIR LOW WILL PROVIDE A BROAD CYCLONIC AS
WELL AS A COLD POOL ALOFT...BOTH OF WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH THE HELP
OF DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY REACHING THE UPPER
70S TO AROUND 80 AT BEST IN THE VALLEYS...UPPER 60S TO MID 70S
HIGHER TERRAIN THURSDAY...A COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH MORE
PATCHY FOG AND TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE
COLDEST SPOTS TO NEAR 60 RIGHT IN THE CAPITAL REGION...50S
ELSEWHERE.



&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MEAN UPPER TROUGH AXIS REMAINS WEST OF THE REGION...AND UPPER ENERGY
GRADUALLY APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES.  SLOWLY INCREASING
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD PROVIDE
INCREASING LOW LEVEL FORCING ALONG WITH THE WEAK UPPER DYNAMICS FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST COVERAGE OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE IN THE AFTERNOONS AND
EVENINGS...WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY AT NIGHT.  THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD SEE THE BEST COVERAGE SATURDAY...CENTRAL
AREAS SUNDAY AND EASTERN AREAS MONDAY.

THE UPPER ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO EXIT BY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
BRINGING WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT EXITING EAST.  SLIGHT DRYING
TUESDAY...NOT NECESSARILY COOLING... AS MORE BROAD UPPER TROUGHING
CONTINUES OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WITH THE MEAN AXIS STILL WEST
OF OUR REGION. STILL...WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE EASTERN PORTION
OF THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH WOULD SUGGEST INTERVALS OF MID AND UPPER
CLOUDINESS EVEN IF THERE IS SOME SLIGHT DRYING AT LOW LEVELS MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.  HIGHS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION AND QUITE A
BIT OF FAIR WEATHER CLOUDINESS HAS MADE FOR SCATTERED VARIABLE
BROKEN CLOUDS ABOVE 3000 FEET. THE CLOUDS SHOULD DECREASE IN
COVERAGE THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE NIGHT...WHILE MORE SCATTERED
CLOUDS ABOVE 3000 FEET ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW. SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 06Z-13Z AT KGFL AND KPSF WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

WEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON 10 KT...OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 15 KT
AT KALB AND KPSF. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT...THEN SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST AT LESS THAN 10 KT TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A LARGE UPPER AIR LOW WILL REMAIN OVER OUR REGION FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK. WHILE WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY WASHOUT DAYS (WET
FLAG)...THERE WILL BE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
STARTING ON WEDNESDAY. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
WIDELY SCATTERED ON WEDNESDAY...SCATTERED THURSDAY...SCATTERED FROM
THE MOHAWK VALLEY SOUTHWARD FRIDAY...ISOLATED NORTH OF THE MOHAWK
RIVER. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL TAKE PLACE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

GENERALLY SPEAKING...AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW A
QUARTER OF INCH. HOWEVER...LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AN INCH ARE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS.

NIGHTS WILL GENERALLY BE DRY WITH A FULL RECOVERY AND PATCHY GROUND
FOG.

THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM EACH NIGHT AND MORNING...BECOMING
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5 TO 15 MPH BY AFTERNOON AFTERNOON.

RH VALUES WILL FALL TO THE 40-55 PERCENT RANGE EACH AFTERNOON...BUT
LOCALLY WILL SPIKE HIGHER IN ANY SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE QUITE VARIABLE ACROSS OUR REGION ON
MONDAY...GENERALLY RANGING FROM AROUND AN INCH TO LOCALLY MORE THAN
3 INCHES...HIGHEST ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES.

RAINFALL ACTUALLY IMPACTED SOME RIVERS...PRODUCING SOME RAPID
INCREASES ON SOME RIVERS AND STREAMS. THE WILLIAMS RIVER AT
ROCKINGHAM BRIEFLY WENT ABOUT A FOOT ABOVE FLOOD YESTERDAY LAST
EVENING.

WITH NO MEASURABLE RAINFALL TODAY...RIVERS AND STREAMS WERE ABLE TO
CREST AND BEGIN TO RECEDE. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS DESPITE AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TOMORROW LOOKS TO BE WIDELY
SCATTERED...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. THURSDAY/S COVERAGE
LOOKS A LITTLE MORE EXTENSIVE AS FRIDAY/S AND EVEN SATURDAY/S.
UNLESS HEAVY RAINFALL FALLS IN A CRITICAL RUNOFF AREA...MOST RIVERS
SHOULD NOT RESPOND TO THIS SCATTERED RAINFALL AS AVERAGE BASIN
RAINFALLS SHOULD GENERALLY BE A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY WHICH WILL ALLOW RIVER AND STREAM
LEVELS TO RECEDE. HOWEVER...THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED THIS
WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS LOW WILL WOBBLE
OVER EASTERN CANADA AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT. THE LOW WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND HOWEVER THE THREAT FOR
STORMS WILL CONTINUE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV









000
FXUS61 KALY 292010
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
304 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A MAINLY CLEAR COOL NIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG
ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL TOUCH OFF SOME AFTERNOON
CLOUDS AND WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. A
STRONGER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COME THURSDAY.


&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT...AN AFTERNOON FEELING MORE LIKE EARLY SEPTEMBER AS
OPPOSED TO LATE JULY. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 70 TO 75 IN THE
VALLEYS...65 TO 70 HIGHER TERRAIN. A FEW PATCHY CLOUDS BLOTTED OUT
THE SUN AT TIMES...AND RANDOM SPRINKLE COULD NOT BE RULED. A
NORTHWEST WIND AVERAGE 5 TO 10 MPH.

THE CLOUDS AND ANY SPRINKLES WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNDOWN.
MOST CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE...THE WIND WILL BECOME NEARLY CALM. THIS
WILL ALL SET US UP FOR A COOL NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES DIPPING TO THE
LOWER 50S ALBANY SOUTHWARD IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...MID OR UPPER 40S
MOST OUTLYING AREAS. THERE WILL BE PATCHES OF FOG...DENSE IN SPOTS
LATE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LARGE CLOSED LOW
AS IT WOBBLES OVER EASTERN CANADA AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL
ROTATE ABOUT IT. THIS UPPER AIR LOW WILL PROVIDE A BROAD CYCLONIC AS
WELL AS A COLD POOL ALOFT...BOTH OF WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH THE HELP
OF DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY REACHING THE UPPER
70S TO AROUND 80 AT BEST IN THE VALLEYS...UPPER 60S TO MID 70S
HIGHER TERRAIN THURSDAY...A COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH MORE
PATCHY FOG AND TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE
COLDEST SPOTS TO NEAR 60 RIGHT IN THE CAPITAL REGION...50S
ELSEWHERE.



&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MEAN UPPER TROUGH AXIS REMAINS WEST OF THE REGION...AND UPPER ENERGY
GRADUALLY APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES.  SLOWLY INCREASING
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD PROVIDE
INCREASING LOW LEVEL FORCING ALONG WITH THE WEAK UPPER DYNAMICS FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST COVERAGE OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE IN THE AFTERNOONS AND
EVENINGS...WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY AT NIGHT.  THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD SEE THE BEST COVERAGE SATURDAY...CENTRAL
AREAS SUNDAY AND EASTERN AREAS MONDAY.

THE UPPER ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO EXIT BY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
BRINGING WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT EXITING EAST.  SLIGHT DRYING
TUESDAY...NOT NECESSARILY COOLING... AS MORE BROAD UPPER TROUGHING
CONTINUES OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WITH THE MEAN AXIS STILL WEST
OF OUR REGION. STILL...WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE EASTERN PORTION
OF THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH WOULD SUGGEST INTERVALS OF MID AND UPPER
CLOUDINESS EVEN IF THERE IS SOME SLIGHT DRYING AT LOW LEVELS MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.  HIGHS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION AND QUITE A
BIT OF FAIR WEATHER CLOUDINESS HAS MADE FOR SCATTERED VARIABLE
BROKEN CLOUDS ABOVE 3000 FEET. THE CLOUDS SHOULD DECREASE IN
COVERAGE THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE NIGHT...WHILE MORE SCATTERED
CLOUDS ABOVE 3000 FEET ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW. SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 06Z-13Z AT KGFL AND KPSF WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

WEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON 10 KT...OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 15 KT
AT KALB AND KPSF. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT...THEN SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST AT LESS THAN 10 KT TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A LARGE UPPER AIR LOW WILL REMAIN OVER OUR REGION FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK. WHILE WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY WASHOUT DAYS (WET
FLAG)...THERE WILL BE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
STARTING ON WEDNESDAY. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
WIDELY SCATTERED ON WEDNESDAY...SCATTERED THURSDAY...SCATTERED FROM
THE MOHAWK VALLEY SOUTHWARD FRIDAY...ISOLATED NORTH OF THE MOHAWK
RIVER. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL TAKE PLACE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

GENERALLY SPEAKING...AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW A
QUARTER OF INCH. HOWEVER...LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AN INCH ARE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS.

NIGHTS WILL GENERALLY BE DRY WITH A FULL RECOVERY AND PATCHY GROUND
FOG.

THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM EACH NIGHT AND MORNING...BECOMING
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5 TO 15 MPH BY AFTERNOON AFTERNOON.

RH VALUES WILL FALL TO THE 40-55 PERCENT RANGE EACH AFTERNOON...BUT
LOCALLY WILL SPIKE HIGHER IN ANY SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE QUITE VARIABLE ACROSS OUR REGION ON
MONDAY...GENERALLY RANGING FROM AROUND AN INCH TO LOCALLY MORE THAN
3 INCHES...HIGHEST ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES.

RAINFALL ACTUALLY IMPACTED SOME RIVERS...PRODUCING SOME RAPID
INCREASES ON SOME RIVERS AND STREAMS. THE WILLIAMS RIVER AT
ROCKINGHAM BRIEFLY WENT ABOUT A FOOT ABOVE FLOOD YESTERDAY LAST
EVENING.

WITH NO MEASURABLE RAINFALL TODAY...RIVERS AND STREAMS WERE ABLE TO
CREST AND BEGIN TO RECEDE. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS DESPITE AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TOMORROW LOOKS TO BE WIDELY
SCATTERED...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. THURSDAY/S COVERAGE
LOOKS A LITTLE MORE EXTENSIVE AS FRIDAY/S AND EVEN SATURDAY/S.
UNLESS HEAVY RAINFALL FALLS IN A CRITICAL RUNOFF AREA...MOST RIVERS
SHOULD NOT RESPOND TO THIS SCATTERED RAINFALL AS AVERAGE BASIN
RAINFALLS SHOULD GENERALLY BE A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY WHICH WILL ALLOW RIVER AND STREAM
LEVELS TO RECEDE. HOWEVER...THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED THIS
WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS LOW WILL WOBBLE
OVER EASTERN CANADA AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT. THE LOW WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND HOWEVER THE THREAT FOR
STORMS WILL CONTINUE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV










000
FXUS61 KOKX 292006
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
406 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OFFSHORE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON THURSDAY WILL
GRADUALLY WORK WEST TOWARD THE COAST THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH
MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG IT. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
INSTABILITY CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE...WITH DEVELOPING
INVERSION FROM AROUND 750-650 HPA SERVING AS A LIMITING FACTOR.
GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUD COVER LINGERING INTO THE NIGHT...WEIGHED
TEMPERATURE FORECAST TOWARDS WARMER MET GUIDANCE FOR LOWS. TO
ACHIEVE THIS USED A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES AND A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE. LOWS SHOULD BE
AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE METEOROLOGICAL ENHANCEMENT OF
RIP CURRENTS EARLY THIS EVENING AT AREA OCEAN BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN THE MODELS WHETHER THERE WILL
BE SUFFICIENT LOW-MID LEVEL INSTABILITY AND PASSING OF WEAK
700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE WILL PROMOTE SPRINKLES TO MAYBE ISOLD
SHRA/TSTM ACROSS INTERIOR ZONES WEDNESDAY. THE NAM IS THE MOST
BULLISH FOLLOWED BY THE SREF...THE ECMWF IS DRY AND THE CMC REG
AND GFS SUGGEST LIMITING TO WESTERN ORANGE COUNTY. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE THE MID LEVEL CAP THAT DEVELOPS MIGHT
NOT ERODE...EVEN OVER ORANGE COUNTY. THUS...FOR NOW HAVE OPTED
FOR A DRY FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY FOR ALL BUT THE NW 1/2 OF ORANGE
COUNTY...WHERE HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

HOWEVER...WITH WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AROUND 7500-8500 FT...AND
500 HPA TEMPERATURES AROUND -15C IT SHOULD NOT TAKE TO MUCH CLOUD
DEPTH TO GET LIGHTNING AND/OR SMALL HAIL/GRAUPEL...SO WENT WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER THERE AS WELL. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...WHERE THE CAP IS FORECAST TO BE A BIT STRONGER THAN
OVER NW ORANGE COUNTY...THE QUESTION IS ARE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
STRONG ENOUGH TO PROMOTE SPRINKLES UNDER THE CAP. IF THIS WERE THE
COOL SEASON WOULD BE INCLINED TO SAY YES...BUT NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO DO SO IN THE WARM SEASON...AS MODELS ON OCCASION OVERDO
THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY DURING THIS TIME OF YEAR.

ELSEWHERE WOULD EXPECT TO SEE SOME INSTABILITY CLOUDS LIKE
TODAY...SO HAVE LOWERED HIGHS A TAD FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...CONSISTENT WITH A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND MIXING DOWN FROM 875 HPA...EXCEPT 850 HPA
NW ZONES PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE EXITING TO THE NE AND MID LEVEL INVERSION
WEAKER THAN TONIGHT...WOULD EXPECT CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE DURING THE
EVENING...SO DO EXPECT SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
BASED ON THIS USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES FOR LOWS...WITH VALUES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED ANOMALOUS SUMMERTIME PATTERN FEATURES A TROUGH
ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA...WITH RIDGING OUT WEST AND ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS BLOCKING PATTERN WILL RESULT IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH GRADUALLY FILLING AND WORKING EAST AT THE END OF
THE PERIOD AS AN UPSTREAM KICKER MOVES INTO CENTRAL CANADA. THERE
ARE CLEARLY TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE GLOBAL MODEL SUITE WITH
HOW QUICKLY THIS OCCURS...AS WELL AS WITH AN OFFSHORE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT RETROGRADES WEST IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT RISES ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD THU INTO SAT. THE LATTER OF WHICH COULD BRING A
BOUT OF STEADY RAINS INTO THE REGION FRI NIGHT INTO THE SAT. THE 12Z
ECMWF AND 12Z GGEM REMAIN THE MOST AGGRESSIVE SOLUTIONS. THE
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOE A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT...BUT THERE
REMAINS A DECENT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE LOCATION OF THE
FRONTAL WAVE AND THE BOUNDARY.

FOR THU INTO FRI...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED TO THE EAST WITH A
RETURN SLY FLOW. AIRMASS REMAINS FAIRLY DRY IN THE LOW-LEVELS WITH
ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND WEAK TO MODERATE SHEAR. OVERALL CHANCES
FOR CONVECTION ARE LOW DURING THIS TIME WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEING
IN THE AFT/EVE HOURS IN THE HILLS NW OF NYC...DRIVEN BY DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING. RAIN CHANCES THEN INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
OFFSHORE FRONT AND MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE. ONCE AGAIN
THOUGH...THE SOLUTIONS VARY ON THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT.

FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON THE HEELS
OF THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. THE GGEM AND GFS BOTH ARE SLOWER WITH
THE PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH. THUS...CONVECTION COULD LINGER INTO MON
WITH A WEAK TROUGH/COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH.

TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR AVG THU-FRI...THEN A LITTLE BELOW AVG THIS
WEEKEND VIA CLOUD COVER AND GREATER POP...THEN RETURNING TO NEAR AVG
ON MON. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL ALSO NE ON THE INCREASE WITH DEW POINTS
RISING INTO THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SEA BREEZE ALONG THE CT COAST IS THROUGH THE CT COASTAL TERMINALS.
SEA BREEZE IS THROUGH SOUTHERN SUFFOLK COUNTY...BUT LIES ALONG THE
COAST IN NASSAU COUNTY AND BROOKLYN AND QUEENS. WITH INCREASED
CLOUDS ACROSS WESTERN TERMINALS...WILL BE HARD FOR SEA BREEZE TO
TRACK MUCH FARTHER INLAND. WILL KEEP WINDS AT KEWR WITH A W-NW
DIRECTION. FOR KLGA...WINDS WILL BACK FROM A NW TO A W FLOW BY EARLY
THIS EVENING. FOR KJFK...THINK THE SEA BREEZE MAY LIFT NORTH THROUGH
THE TERMINAL FROM TIME TO TIME...RESULTING IN WINDS VARYING FROM
W-NW TO W-SW INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.

VRB WINDS 5 KT OR LESS AT ALL TERMINALS FROM 03-05Z THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. SEA BREEZES QUICKLY DEVELOP LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER...
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

..NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FORECASTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE WILL HANG JUST SOUTH OF KJFK...
POSSIBLY LIFTING NORTH FROM TIME TO TIME THROUGH 23Z.

KLGA FORECASTER COMMENTS: WINDS 320-340 MAG...BACKING TO 250-270 MAG
BY 22Z.

KEWR FORECASTER COMMENTS: WINDS 270-290 MAG THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
OCNL GUSTS TO 17 KT POSSIBLE THROUGH 22Z.

KTEB FORECASTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FORECASTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FORECASTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY...VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE AT KSWF IN THE
AFTERNOON.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM KBDR TO KFRG.
VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS.
.SATURDAY-SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SCT
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL BE 10 KT OR LESS ON THE WATERS AROUND LONG ISLAND
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SEAS ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS WILL BE
4 FT OR LESS AND ON THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS 1 FT OR LESS AS A
RESULT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN QUIET FROM THURSDAY THOUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH AN APPROACHING OFFSHORE FRONT THIS WEEKEND AND THEN WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
IT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS THEN EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

PARTS OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST...HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND THIS
WEEKEND...DEPENDING ON THE POSITION OF AN OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE
AND TIMING OF ANY ASSOCIATED WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS
POTENTIAL IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY...SO IT IS TOO EARLY TO OFFER
SPECIFIC FORECAST DETAILS OR TO MENTION IN HWO.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/DW
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...MALOIT/DW
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/DW





000
FXUS61 KOKX 292006
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
406 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OFFSHORE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON THURSDAY WILL
GRADUALLY WORK WEST TOWARD THE COAST THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH
MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG IT. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
INSTABILITY CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE...WITH DEVELOPING
INVERSION FROM AROUND 750-650 HPA SERVING AS A LIMITING FACTOR.
GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUD COVER LINGERING INTO THE NIGHT...WEIGHED
TEMPERATURE FORECAST TOWARDS WARMER MET GUIDANCE FOR LOWS. TO
ACHIEVE THIS USED A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES AND A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE. LOWS SHOULD BE
AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE METEOROLOGICAL ENHANCEMENT OF
RIP CURRENTS EARLY THIS EVENING AT AREA OCEAN BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN THE MODELS WHETHER THERE WILL
BE SUFFICIENT LOW-MID LEVEL INSTABILITY AND PASSING OF WEAK
700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE WILL PROMOTE SPRINKLES TO MAYBE ISOLD
SHRA/TSTM ACROSS INTERIOR ZONES WEDNESDAY. THE NAM IS THE MOST
BULLISH FOLLOWED BY THE SREF...THE ECMWF IS DRY AND THE CMC REG
AND GFS SUGGEST LIMITING TO WESTERN ORANGE COUNTY. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE THE MID LEVEL CAP THAT DEVELOPS MIGHT
NOT ERODE...EVEN OVER ORANGE COUNTY. THUS...FOR NOW HAVE OPTED
FOR A DRY FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY FOR ALL BUT THE NW 1/2 OF ORANGE
COUNTY...WHERE HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

HOWEVER...WITH WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AROUND 7500-8500 FT...AND
500 HPA TEMPERATURES AROUND -15C IT SHOULD NOT TAKE TO MUCH CLOUD
DEPTH TO GET LIGHTNING AND/OR SMALL HAIL/GRAUPEL...SO WENT WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER THERE AS WELL. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...WHERE THE CAP IS FORECAST TO BE A BIT STRONGER THAN
OVER NW ORANGE COUNTY...THE QUESTION IS ARE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
STRONG ENOUGH TO PROMOTE SPRINKLES UNDER THE CAP. IF THIS WERE THE
COOL SEASON WOULD BE INCLINED TO SAY YES...BUT NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO DO SO IN THE WARM SEASON...AS MODELS ON OCCASION OVERDO
THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY DURING THIS TIME OF YEAR.

ELSEWHERE WOULD EXPECT TO SEE SOME INSTABILITY CLOUDS LIKE
TODAY...SO HAVE LOWERED HIGHS A TAD FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...CONSISTENT WITH A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND MIXING DOWN FROM 875 HPA...EXCEPT 850 HPA
NW ZONES PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE EXITING TO THE NE AND MID LEVEL INVERSION
WEAKER THAN TONIGHT...WOULD EXPECT CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE DURING THE
EVENING...SO DO EXPECT SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
BASED ON THIS USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES FOR LOWS...WITH VALUES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED ANOMALOUS SUMMERTIME PATTERN FEATURES A TROUGH
ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA...WITH RIDGING OUT WEST AND ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS BLOCKING PATTERN WILL RESULT IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH GRADUALLY FILLING AND WORKING EAST AT THE END OF
THE PERIOD AS AN UPSTREAM KICKER MOVES INTO CENTRAL CANADA. THERE
ARE CLEARLY TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE GLOBAL MODEL SUITE WITH
HOW QUICKLY THIS OCCURS...AS WELL AS WITH AN OFFSHORE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT RETROGRADES WEST IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT RISES ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD THU INTO SAT. THE LATTER OF WHICH COULD BRING A
BOUT OF STEADY RAINS INTO THE REGION FRI NIGHT INTO THE SAT. THE 12Z
ECMWF AND 12Z GGEM REMAIN THE MOST AGGRESSIVE SOLUTIONS. THE
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOE A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT...BUT THERE
REMAINS A DECENT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE LOCATION OF THE
FRONTAL WAVE AND THE BOUNDARY.

FOR THU INTO FRI...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED TO THE EAST WITH A
RETURN SLY FLOW. AIRMASS REMAINS FAIRLY DRY IN THE LOW-LEVELS WITH
ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND WEAK TO MODERATE SHEAR. OVERALL CHANCES
FOR CONVECTION ARE LOW DURING THIS TIME WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEING
IN THE AFT/EVE HOURS IN THE HILLS NW OF NYC...DRIVEN BY DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING. RAIN CHANCES THEN INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
OFFSHORE FRONT AND MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE. ONCE AGAIN
THOUGH...THE SOLUTIONS VARY ON THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT.

FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON THE HEELS
OF THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. THE GGEM AND GFS BOTH ARE SLOWER WITH
THE PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH. THUS...CONVECTION COULD LINGER INTO MON
WITH A WEAK TROUGH/COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH.

TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR AVG THU-FRI...THEN A LITTLE BELOW AVG THIS
WEEKEND VIA CLOUD COVER AND GREATER POP...THEN RETURNING TO NEAR AVG
ON MON. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL ALSO NE ON THE INCREASE WITH DEW POINTS
RISING INTO THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SEA BREEZE ALONG THE CT COAST IS THROUGH THE CT COASTAL TERMINALS.
SEA BREEZE IS THROUGH SOUTHERN SUFFOLK COUNTY...BUT LIES ALONG THE
COAST IN NASSAU COUNTY AND BROOKLYN AND QUEENS. WITH INCREASED
CLOUDS ACROSS WESTERN TERMINALS...WILL BE HARD FOR SEA BREEZE TO
TRACK MUCH FARTHER INLAND. WILL KEEP WINDS AT KEWR WITH A W-NW
DIRECTION. FOR KLGA...WINDS WILL BACK FROM A NW TO A W FLOW BY EARLY
THIS EVENING. FOR KJFK...THINK THE SEA BREEZE MAY LIFT NORTH THROUGH
THE TERMINAL FROM TIME TO TIME...RESULTING IN WINDS VARYING FROM
W-NW TO W-SW INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.

VRB WINDS 5 KT OR LESS AT ALL TERMINALS FROM 03-05Z THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. SEA BREEZES QUICKLY DEVELOP LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER...
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

..NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FORECASTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE WILL HANG JUST SOUTH OF KJFK...
POSSIBLY LIFTING NORTH FROM TIME TO TIME THROUGH 23Z.

KLGA FORECASTER COMMENTS: WINDS 320-340 MAG...BACKING TO 250-270 MAG
BY 22Z.

KEWR FORECASTER COMMENTS: WINDS 270-290 MAG THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
OCNL GUSTS TO 17 KT POSSIBLE THROUGH 22Z.

KTEB FORECASTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FORECASTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FORECASTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY...VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE AT KSWF IN THE
AFTERNOON.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM KBDR TO KFRG.
VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS.
.SATURDAY-SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SCT
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL BE 10 KT OR LESS ON THE WATERS AROUND LONG ISLAND
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SEAS ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS WILL BE
4 FT OR LESS AND ON THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS 1 FT OR LESS AS A
RESULT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN QUIET FROM THURSDAY THOUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH AN APPROACHING OFFSHORE FRONT THIS WEEKEND AND THEN WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
IT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS THEN EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

PARTS OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST...HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND THIS
WEEKEND...DEPENDING ON THE POSITION OF AN OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE
AND TIMING OF ANY ASSOCIATED WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS
POTENTIAL IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY...SO IT IS TOO EARLY TO OFFER
SPECIFIC FORECAST DETAILS OR TO MENTION IN HWO.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/DW
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...MALOIT/DW
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/DW





000
FXUS61 KOKX 292006
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
406 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OFFSHORE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON THURSDAY WILL
GRADUALLY WORK WEST TOWARD THE COAST THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH
MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG IT. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
INSTABILITY CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE...WITH DEVELOPING
INVERSION FROM AROUND 750-650 HPA SERVING AS A LIMITING FACTOR.
GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUD COVER LINGERING INTO THE NIGHT...WEIGHED
TEMPERATURE FORECAST TOWARDS WARMER MET GUIDANCE FOR LOWS. TO
ACHIEVE THIS USED A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES AND A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE. LOWS SHOULD BE
AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE METEOROLOGICAL ENHANCEMENT OF
RIP CURRENTS EARLY THIS EVENING AT AREA OCEAN BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN THE MODELS WHETHER THERE WILL
BE SUFFICIENT LOW-MID LEVEL INSTABILITY AND PASSING OF WEAK
700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE WILL PROMOTE SPRINKLES TO MAYBE ISOLD
SHRA/TSTM ACROSS INTERIOR ZONES WEDNESDAY. THE NAM IS THE MOST
BULLISH FOLLOWED BY THE SREF...THE ECMWF IS DRY AND THE CMC REG
AND GFS SUGGEST LIMITING TO WESTERN ORANGE COUNTY. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE THE MID LEVEL CAP THAT DEVELOPS MIGHT
NOT ERODE...EVEN OVER ORANGE COUNTY. THUS...FOR NOW HAVE OPTED
FOR A DRY FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY FOR ALL BUT THE NW 1/2 OF ORANGE
COUNTY...WHERE HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

HOWEVER...WITH WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AROUND 7500-8500 FT...AND
500 HPA TEMPERATURES AROUND -15C IT SHOULD NOT TAKE TO MUCH CLOUD
DEPTH TO GET LIGHTNING AND/OR SMALL HAIL/GRAUPEL...SO WENT WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER THERE AS WELL. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...WHERE THE CAP IS FORECAST TO BE A BIT STRONGER THAN
OVER NW ORANGE COUNTY...THE QUESTION IS ARE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
STRONG ENOUGH TO PROMOTE SPRINKLES UNDER THE CAP. IF THIS WERE THE
COOL SEASON WOULD BE INCLINED TO SAY YES...BUT NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO DO SO IN THE WARM SEASON...AS MODELS ON OCCASION OVERDO
THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY DURING THIS TIME OF YEAR.

ELSEWHERE WOULD EXPECT TO SEE SOME INSTABILITY CLOUDS LIKE
TODAY...SO HAVE LOWERED HIGHS A TAD FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...CONSISTENT WITH A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND MIXING DOWN FROM 875 HPA...EXCEPT 850 HPA
NW ZONES PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE EXITING TO THE NE AND MID LEVEL INVERSION
WEAKER THAN TONIGHT...WOULD EXPECT CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE DURING THE
EVENING...SO DO EXPECT SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
BASED ON THIS USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES FOR LOWS...WITH VALUES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED ANOMALOUS SUMMERTIME PATTERN FEATURES A TROUGH
ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA...WITH RIDGING OUT WEST AND ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS BLOCKING PATTERN WILL RESULT IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH GRADUALLY FILLING AND WORKING EAST AT THE END OF
THE PERIOD AS AN UPSTREAM KICKER MOVES INTO CENTRAL CANADA. THERE
ARE CLEARLY TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE GLOBAL MODEL SUITE WITH
HOW QUICKLY THIS OCCURS...AS WELL AS WITH AN OFFSHORE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT RETROGRADES WEST IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT RISES ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD THU INTO SAT. THE LATTER OF WHICH COULD BRING A
BOUT OF STEADY RAINS INTO THE REGION FRI NIGHT INTO THE SAT. THE 12Z
ECMWF AND 12Z GGEM REMAIN THE MOST AGGRESSIVE SOLUTIONS. THE
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOE A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT...BUT THERE
REMAINS A DECENT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE LOCATION OF THE
FRONTAL WAVE AND THE BOUNDARY.

FOR THU INTO FRI...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED TO THE EAST WITH A
RETURN SLY FLOW. AIRMASS REMAINS FAIRLY DRY IN THE LOW-LEVELS WITH
ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND WEAK TO MODERATE SHEAR. OVERALL CHANCES
FOR CONVECTION ARE LOW DURING THIS TIME WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEING
IN THE AFT/EVE HOURS IN THE HILLS NW OF NYC...DRIVEN BY DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING. RAIN CHANCES THEN INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
OFFSHORE FRONT AND MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE. ONCE AGAIN
THOUGH...THE SOLUTIONS VARY ON THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT.

FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON THE HEELS
OF THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. THE GGEM AND GFS BOTH ARE SLOWER WITH
THE PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH. THUS...CONVECTION COULD LINGER INTO MON
WITH A WEAK TROUGH/COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH.

TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR AVG THU-FRI...THEN A LITTLE BELOW AVG THIS
WEEKEND VIA CLOUD COVER AND GREATER POP...THEN RETURNING TO NEAR AVG
ON MON. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL ALSO NE ON THE INCREASE WITH DEW POINTS
RISING INTO THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SEA BREEZE ALONG THE CT COAST IS THROUGH THE CT COASTAL TERMINALS.
SEA BREEZE IS THROUGH SOUTHERN SUFFOLK COUNTY...BUT LIES ALONG THE
COAST IN NASSAU COUNTY AND BROOKLYN AND QUEENS. WITH INCREASED
CLOUDS ACROSS WESTERN TERMINALS...WILL BE HARD FOR SEA BREEZE TO
TRACK MUCH FARTHER INLAND. WILL KEEP WINDS AT KEWR WITH A W-NW
DIRECTION. FOR KLGA...WINDS WILL BACK FROM A NW TO A W FLOW BY EARLY
THIS EVENING. FOR KJFK...THINK THE SEA BREEZE MAY LIFT NORTH THROUGH
THE TERMINAL FROM TIME TO TIME...RESULTING IN WINDS VARYING FROM
W-NW TO W-SW INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.

VRB WINDS 5 KT OR LESS AT ALL TERMINALS FROM 03-05Z THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. SEA BREEZES QUICKLY DEVELOP LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER...
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

..NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FORECASTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE WILL HANG JUST SOUTH OF KJFK...
POSSIBLY LIFTING NORTH FROM TIME TO TIME THROUGH 23Z.

KLGA FORECASTER COMMENTS: WINDS 320-340 MAG...BACKING TO 250-270 MAG
BY 22Z.

KEWR FORECASTER COMMENTS: WINDS 270-290 MAG THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
OCNL GUSTS TO 17 KT POSSIBLE THROUGH 22Z.

KTEB FORECASTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FORECASTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FORECASTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY...VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE AT KSWF IN THE
AFTERNOON.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM KBDR TO KFRG.
VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS.
.SATURDAY-SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SCT
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL BE 10 KT OR LESS ON THE WATERS AROUND LONG ISLAND
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SEAS ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS WILL BE
4 FT OR LESS AND ON THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS 1 FT OR LESS AS A
RESULT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN QUIET FROM THURSDAY THOUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH AN APPROACHING OFFSHORE FRONT THIS WEEKEND AND THEN WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
IT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS THEN EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

PARTS OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST...HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND THIS
WEEKEND...DEPENDING ON THE POSITION OF AN OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE
AND TIMING OF ANY ASSOCIATED WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS
POTENTIAL IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY...SO IT IS TOO EARLY TO OFFER
SPECIFIC FORECAST DETAILS OR TO MENTION IN HWO.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/DW
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...MALOIT/DW
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/DW





000
FXUS61 KOKX 292006
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
406 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OFFSHORE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON THURSDAY WILL
GRADUALLY WORK WEST TOWARD THE COAST THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH
MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG IT. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
INSTABILITY CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE...WITH DEVELOPING
INVERSION FROM AROUND 750-650 HPA SERVING AS A LIMITING FACTOR.
GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUD COVER LINGERING INTO THE NIGHT...WEIGHED
TEMPERATURE FORECAST TOWARDS WARMER MET GUIDANCE FOR LOWS. TO
ACHIEVE THIS USED A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES AND A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE. LOWS SHOULD BE
AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE METEOROLOGICAL ENHANCEMENT OF
RIP CURRENTS EARLY THIS EVENING AT AREA OCEAN BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN THE MODELS WHETHER THERE WILL
BE SUFFICIENT LOW-MID LEVEL INSTABILITY AND PASSING OF WEAK
700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE WILL PROMOTE SPRINKLES TO MAYBE ISOLD
SHRA/TSTM ACROSS INTERIOR ZONES WEDNESDAY. THE NAM IS THE MOST
BULLISH FOLLOWED BY THE SREF...THE ECMWF IS DRY AND THE CMC REG
AND GFS SUGGEST LIMITING TO WESTERN ORANGE COUNTY. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE THE MID LEVEL CAP THAT DEVELOPS MIGHT
NOT ERODE...EVEN OVER ORANGE COUNTY. THUS...FOR NOW HAVE OPTED
FOR A DRY FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY FOR ALL BUT THE NW 1/2 OF ORANGE
COUNTY...WHERE HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

HOWEVER...WITH WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AROUND 7500-8500 FT...AND
500 HPA TEMPERATURES AROUND -15C IT SHOULD NOT TAKE TO MUCH CLOUD
DEPTH TO GET LIGHTNING AND/OR SMALL HAIL/GRAUPEL...SO WENT WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER THERE AS WELL. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...WHERE THE CAP IS FORECAST TO BE A BIT STRONGER THAN
OVER NW ORANGE COUNTY...THE QUESTION IS ARE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
STRONG ENOUGH TO PROMOTE SPRINKLES UNDER THE CAP. IF THIS WERE THE
COOL SEASON WOULD BE INCLINED TO SAY YES...BUT NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO DO SO IN THE WARM SEASON...AS MODELS ON OCCASION OVERDO
THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY DURING THIS TIME OF YEAR.

ELSEWHERE WOULD EXPECT TO SEE SOME INSTABILITY CLOUDS LIKE
TODAY...SO HAVE LOWERED HIGHS A TAD FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...CONSISTENT WITH A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND MIXING DOWN FROM 875 HPA...EXCEPT 850 HPA
NW ZONES PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE EXITING TO THE NE AND MID LEVEL INVERSION
WEAKER THAN TONIGHT...WOULD EXPECT CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE DURING THE
EVENING...SO DO EXPECT SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
BASED ON THIS USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES FOR LOWS...WITH VALUES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED ANOMALOUS SUMMERTIME PATTERN FEATURES A TROUGH
ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA...WITH RIDGING OUT WEST AND ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS BLOCKING PATTERN WILL RESULT IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH GRADUALLY FILLING AND WORKING EAST AT THE END OF
THE PERIOD AS AN UPSTREAM KICKER MOVES INTO CENTRAL CANADA. THERE
ARE CLEARLY TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE GLOBAL MODEL SUITE WITH
HOW QUICKLY THIS OCCURS...AS WELL AS WITH AN OFFSHORE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT RETROGRADES WEST IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT RISES ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD THU INTO SAT. THE LATTER OF WHICH COULD BRING A
BOUT OF STEADY RAINS INTO THE REGION FRI NIGHT INTO THE SAT. THE 12Z
ECMWF AND 12Z GGEM REMAIN THE MOST AGGRESSIVE SOLUTIONS. THE
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOE A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT...BUT THERE
REMAINS A DECENT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE LOCATION OF THE
FRONTAL WAVE AND THE BOUNDARY.

FOR THU INTO FRI...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED TO THE EAST WITH A
RETURN SLY FLOW. AIRMASS REMAINS FAIRLY DRY IN THE LOW-LEVELS WITH
ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND WEAK TO MODERATE SHEAR. OVERALL CHANCES
FOR CONVECTION ARE LOW DURING THIS TIME WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEING
IN THE AFT/EVE HOURS IN THE HILLS NW OF NYC...DRIVEN BY DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING. RAIN CHANCES THEN INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
OFFSHORE FRONT AND MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE. ONCE AGAIN
THOUGH...THE SOLUTIONS VARY ON THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT.

FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON THE HEELS
OF THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. THE GGEM AND GFS BOTH ARE SLOWER WITH
THE PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH. THUS...CONVECTION COULD LINGER INTO MON
WITH A WEAK TROUGH/COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH.

TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR AVG THU-FRI...THEN A LITTLE BELOW AVG THIS
WEEKEND VIA CLOUD COVER AND GREATER POP...THEN RETURNING TO NEAR AVG
ON MON. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL ALSO NE ON THE INCREASE WITH DEW POINTS
RISING INTO THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SEA BREEZE ALONG THE CT COAST IS THROUGH THE CT COASTAL TERMINALS.
SEA BREEZE IS THROUGH SOUTHERN SUFFOLK COUNTY...BUT LIES ALONG THE
COAST IN NASSAU COUNTY AND BROOKLYN AND QUEENS. WITH INCREASED
CLOUDS ACROSS WESTERN TERMINALS...WILL BE HARD FOR SEA BREEZE TO
TRACK MUCH FARTHER INLAND. WILL KEEP WINDS AT KEWR WITH A W-NW
DIRECTION. FOR KLGA...WINDS WILL BACK FROM A NW TO A W FLOW BY EARLY
THIS EVENING. FOR KJFK...THINK THE SEA BREEZE MAY LIFT NORTH THROUGH
THE TERMINAL FROM TIME TO TIME...RESULTING IN WINDS VARYING FROM
W-NW TO W-SW INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.

VRB WINDS 5 KT OR LESS AT ALL TERMINALS FROM 03-05Z THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. SEA BREEZES QUICKLY DEVELOP LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER...
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

..NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FORECASTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE WILL HANG JUST SOUTH OF KJFK...
POSSIBLY LIFTING NORTH FROM TIME TO TIME THROUGH 23Z.

KLGA FORECASTER COMMENTS: WINDS 320-340 MAG...BACKING TO 250-270 MAG
BY 22Z.

KEWR FORECASTER COMMENTS: WINDS 270-290 MAG THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
OCNL GUSTS TO 17 KT POSSIBLE THROUGH 22Z.

KTEB FORECASTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FORECASTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FORECASTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY...VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE AT KSWF IN THE
AFTERNOON.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM KBDR TO KFRG.
VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS.
.SATURDAY-SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SCT
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL BE 10 KT OR LESS ON THE WATERS AROUND LONG ISLAND
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SEAS ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS WILL BE
4 FT OR LESS AND ON THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS 1 FT OR LESS AS A
RESULT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN QUIET FROM THURSDAY THOUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH AN APPROACHING OFFSHORE FRONT THIS WEEKEND AND THEN WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
IT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS THEN EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

PARTS OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST...HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND THIS
WEEKEND...DEPENDING ON THE POSITION OF AN OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE
AND TIMING OF ANY ASSOCIATED WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS
POTENTIAL IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY...SO IT IS TOO EARLY TO OFFER
SPECIFIC FORECAST DETAILS OR TO MENTION IN HWO.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/DW
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...MALOIT/DW
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/DW





000
FXUS61 KBOX 291937
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
337 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY AND LESS HUMID WEATHER FOLLOWS TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A
COLD FRONT SWEEPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. A FEW
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE THU AND FRI...BUT
MOST OF THE TIME WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER.  A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN
IS POSSIBLE SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND IF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS CLOSE
ENOUGH TO THE COAST...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
230 PM UPDATE...MADE A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO NEAR TERM CONDITIONS
TO REFLECT LATEST OBSERVED TRENDS. SEA BREEZE HAS DEVELOPED...BUT
THE TIMING IS A LITTLE SLOWER GETTING INTO BOSTON HARBOR AND UPPER
REACHES OF NARRAGANSETT BAY. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK.

FOR TONIGHT...A DRY AIRMASS...BY LATE JULY STANDARDS...WILL
COMBINE WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS TO RESULT IN AN
EXCELLENT NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING. SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG
MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS...BUT NOTHING
WIDESPREAD IS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ANOMALOUS MID LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA...JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN
ANOTHER DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS
AND SUNSHINE ANTICIPATED AS A MOISTURE-STARVED SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED...BUT
THE SHORTWAVE COULD RESULT IN A PASSING SPRINKLE OR TWO. WE WILL
HAVE TO WATCH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING EAST OF THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK...BUT AT THIS TIME APPEARS IT SHOULD BE FAR
ENOUGH AWAY TO SPARE EVEN THE CAPE/ISLANDS ANY MEASURABLE
RAINFALL.

THIS ANOMALOUS MID LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH NUDGES SLIGHTLY CLOSER
TO OUR REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A MODEST SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
THIS LONGWAVE TROUGH COULD ARRIVE SOON ENOUGH TO GIVE US A PASSING
SHOWER LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE CT
RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
* LOW PRES COULD BRING RAIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY

THE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
CONTINUES TO BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE
LONG TERM. AT THE SURFACE...DURING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND IS IN BETWEEN A HIGH PRESURE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE...AND A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
RETURN FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL BRING SOME INCREASE IN
MOISTURE TO OUR AREA FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT
A CHANCE FOR MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS. ON THURSDAY THERE WILL ALSO BE
A SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE TROUGH WHICH WOULD ALSO CONTRIBUTE
TO THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR THURSDAY
INDICATE MINIMAL CAPE...SO THUNDER NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
FRIDAY CAPE OVER THE INTERIOR MAY INCREASE TO A FEW HUNDRED
J/KG...SOME ISOLATED THUNDER MAY OCCUR. DAYTIME HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ARE EXPECTED...BUT OVER THE COURSE OF THU AND
FRI SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 60S...BRINGING A
SLIGHTLY MORE MUGGY FEEL.

DURING THIS WEEKEND THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS SOMEWHAT TO THE
WEST...ENABLING A FRONT TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. IN ADDITION A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY MOVE ALONG THE
FRONT. THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR STEADY RAIN TO AT LEAST A
PORTION OF THE REGION. THERE CONTINUE TO BE SOME RUN TO RUN MODEL
DISCREPANCIES REGARDING HOW CLOSE THE FRONT COMES TO OUR
AREA...AND HOW LONG IT LINGERS NEARBY. THE CLOSER THE FRONT COMES
TO THE AREA...THE MORE WIDESPREAD THE RAIN. THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF
HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES IN PRECIP TIMING...BUT BOTH SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF RAIN SATURDAY AND/OR SUNDAY. WILL GO WITH
CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THIS TIMEFRAME. 12Z GFS SHOWS ROBUST
MOISTURE WITH A RIBBON OF UP TO 2 INCH PWATS LINGERING IN OUR
AREA. IF THIS SCENARIO DOES COME TO FRUITION THERE COULD BE SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE WEEKEND. CONSIDERABLE MODEL
SPREAD ON CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY...ECMWF INDICATES FRONT MAY BE
OFFSHORE AT THIS POINT...WILL GO WITH ONLY A LOW CHANCE POP.

DRIER CONDITIONS MAY PREVAIL FOR TUESDAY...AS BY THIS TIME THE FRONT
SHOULD BE FURTHER OFFSHORE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

THROUGH 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS OTHER
THAN LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY
PRONE LOCATIONS. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST WEDNESDAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
A SHOWER LATE WEST OF KMHT-KORE-KBDL-KHFD.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS. TIMING OF SEA BREEZE
MAY BE A LITTLE OFF. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THAT TIMING...WILL
CONTINUE TO FINE-TUNE TIMING AS WELL AS WE CAN.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR. LOW
PROBABILITY OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN -SHRA.  DURING
FRI ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...MAINLY OVER
THE INTERIOR.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR NW...CHANCE FOR
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. MVFR CONDITIONS MORE PROBABLE
TOWARDS EASTERN MA/RI IN -SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. LEFTOVER SWELL WILL ALLOW ROUGH SEAS TO LINGER
INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN OUTER COASTAL WATERS.
OTHERWISE...WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SEAS MAY BUILD TO 5 FEET ACROSS THE
OUTER COASTAL WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS AN OFFSHORE LOW
PRESSURE MOVES BY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LINGERING ROUGH SEAS ON THE
OUTER WATERS ON THURSDAY FROM AN OFFSHORE LOW SHOULD SUBSIDE DURING
THE DAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS. WINDS BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.  MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER
POSSIBLE WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT AND POSSIBLE WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE.  THERE IS A CHANCE OF SCA SEAS/WINDS DEVELOPING DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME.


&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...NMB
AVIATION...BELK/NMB
MARINE...BELK/NMB



000
FXUS61 KBOX 291937
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
337 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY AND LESS HUMID WEATHER FOLLOWS TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A
COLD FRONT SWEEPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. A FEW
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE THU AND FRI...BUT
MOST OF THE TIME WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER.  A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN
IS POSSIBLE SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND IF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS CLOSE
ENOUGH TO THE COAST...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
230 PM UPDATE...MADE A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO NEAR TERM CONDITIONS
TO REFLECT LATEST OBSERVED TRENDS. SEA BREEZE HAS DEVELOPED...BUT
THE TIMING IS A LITTLE SLOWER GETTING INTO BOSTON HARBOR AND UPPER
REACHES OF NARRAGANSETT BAY. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK.

FOR TONIGHT...A DRY AIRMASS...BY LATE JULY STANDARDS...WILL
COMBINE WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS TO RESULT IN AN
EXCELLENT NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING. SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG
MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS...BUT NOTHING
WIDESPREAD IS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ANOMALOUS MID LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA...JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN
ANOTHER DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS
AND SUNSHINE ANTICIPATED AS A MOISTURE-STARVED SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED...BUT
THE SHORTWAVE COULD RESULT IN A PASSING SPRINKLE OR TWO. WE WILL
HAVE TO WATCH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING EAST OF THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK...BUT AT THIS TIME APPEARS IT SHOULD BE FAR
ENOUGH AWAY TO SPARE EVEN THE CAPE/ISLANDS ANY MEASURABLE
RAINFALL.

THIS ANOMALOUS MID LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH NUDGES SLIGHTLY CLOSER
TO OUR REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A MODEST SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
THIS LONGWAVE TROUGH COULD ARRIVE SOON ENOUGH TO GIVE US A PASSING
SHOWER LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE CT
RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
* LOW PRES COULD BRING RAIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY

THE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
CONTINUES TO BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE
LONG TERM. AT THE SURFACE...DURING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND IS IN BETWEEN A HIGH PRESURE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE...AND A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
RETURN FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL BRING SOME INCREASE IN
MOISTURE TO OUR AREA FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT
A CHANCE FOR MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS. ON THURSDAY THERE WILL ALSO BE
A SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE TROUGH WHICH WOULD ALSO CONTRIBUTE
TO THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR THURSDAY
INDICATE MINIMAL CAPE...SO THUNDER NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
FRIDAY CAPE OVER THE INTERIOR MAY INCREASE TO A FEW HUNDRED
J/KG...SOME ISOLATED THUNDER MAY OCCUR. DAYTIME HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ARE EXPECTED...BUT OVER THE COURSE OF THU AND
FRI SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 60S...BRINGING A
SLIGHTLY MORE MUGGY FEEL.

DURING THIS WEEKEND THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS SOMEWHAT TO THE
WEST...ENABLING A FRONT TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. IN ADDITION A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY MOVE ALONG THE
FRONT. THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR STEADY RAIN TO AT LEAST A
PORTION OF THE REGION. THERE CONTINUE TO BE SOME RUN TO RUN MODEL
DISCREPANCIES REGARDING HOW CLOSE THE FRONT COMES TO OUR
AREA...AND HOW LONG IT LINGERS NEARBY. THE CLOSER THE FRONT COMES
TO THE AREA...THE MORE WIDESPREAD THE RAIN. THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF
HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES IN PRECIP TIMING...BUT BOTH SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF RAIN SATURDAY AND/OR SUNDAY. WILL GO WITH
CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THIS TIMEFRAME. 12Z GFS SHOWS ROBUST
MOISTURE WITH A RIBBON OF UP TO 2 INCH PWATS LINGERING IN OUR
AREA. IF THIS SCENARIO DOES COME TO FRUITION THERE COULD BE SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE WEEKEND. CONSIDERABLE MODEL
SPREAD ON CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY...ECMWF INDICATES FRONT MAY BE
OFFSHORE AT THIS POINT...WILL GO WITH ONLY A LOW CHANCE POP.

DRIER CONDITIONS MAY PREVAIL FOR TUESDAY...AS BY THIS TIME THE FRONT
SHOULD BE FURTHER OFFSHORE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

THROUGH 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS OTHER
THAN LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY
PRONE LOCATIONS. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST WEDNESDAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
A SHOWER LATE WEST OF KMHT-KORE-KBDL-KHFD.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS. TIMING OF SEA BREEZE
MAY BE A LITTLE OFF. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THAT TIMING...WILL
CONTINUE TO FINE-TUNE TIMING AS WELL AS WE CAN.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR. LOW
PROBABILITY OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN -SHRA.  DURING
FRI ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...MAINLY OVER
THE INTERIOR.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR NW...CHANCE FOR
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. MVFR CONDITIONS MORE PROBABLE
TOWARDS EASTERN MA/RI IN -SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. LEFTOVER SWELL WILL ALLOW ROUGH SEAS TO LINGER
INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN OUTER COASTAL WATERS.
OTHERWISE...WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SEAS MAY BUILD TO 5 FEET ACROSS THE
OUTER COASTAL WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS AN OFFSHORE LOW
PRESSURE MOVES BY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LINGERING ROUGH SEAS ON THE
OUTER WATERS ON THURSDAY FROM AN OFFSHORE LOW SHOULD SUBSIDE DURING
THE DAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS. WINDS BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.  MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER
POSSIBLE WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT AND POSSIBLE WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE.  THERE IS A CHANCE OF SCA SEAS/WINDS DEVELOPING DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME.


&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...NMB
AVIATION...BELK/NMB
MARINE...BELK/NMB




000
FXUS61 KBOX 291833
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
233 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY AND LESS HUMID WEATHER FOLLOWS TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A
COLD FRONT SWEEPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. A FEW
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE THU AND FRI...BUT
MOST OF THE TIME WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER.  A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN
IS POSSIBLE SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND IF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS CLOSE
ENOUGH TO THE COAST...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
230 PM UPDATE...MADE A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO NEAR TERM CONDITIONS
TO REFLECT LATEST OBSERVED TRENDS. SEA BREEZE HAS DEVELOPED...BUT
THE TIMING IS A LITTLE SLOWER GETTING INTO BOSTON HARBOR AND UPPER
REACHES OF NARRAGANSETT BAY. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK.

FOR TONIGHT...A DRY AIRMASS...BY LATE JULY STANDARDS...WILL
COMBINE WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS TO RESULT IN AN
EXCELLENT NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING. SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG
MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS...BUT NOTHING
WIDESPREAD IS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ANOMALOUS MID LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA...JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN
ANOTHER DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS
AND SUNSHINE ANTICIPATED AS A MOISTURE-STARVED SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED...BUT
THE SHORTWAVE COULD RESULT IN A PASSING SPRINKLE OR TWO. WE WILL
HAVE TO WATCH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING EAST OF THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK...BUT AT THIS TIME APPEARS IT SHOULD BE FAR
ENOUGH AWAY TO SPARE EVEN THE CAPE/ISLANDS ANY MEASURABLE
RAINFALL.

THIS ANOMALOUS MID LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH NUDGES SLIGHTLY CLOSER
TO OUR REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A MODEST SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
THIS LONGWAVE TROUGH COULD ARRIVE SOON ENOUGH TO GIVE US A PASSING
SHOWER LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE CT
RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY OTHERWISE QUIET WEATHER
* LOW PRES COULD BRING RAIN ESPECIALLY TO THE SOUTH COAST SAT

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM.  THERE
ARE DETAIL DIFFERENCES OF COURSE BUT OVERALL THE SYNOPTIC SCALE
PATTERN IS WELL MODELED.  THE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. IS THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF THE LONG TERM.  THE TROUGH IS FAR ENOUGH EAST THAT MOISTURE
IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW SHOWERS ON THURSDAY WITH A SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE
TROUGH.  OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY QUIET AND SEASONABLE WEATHER
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

THE TROUGH AXIS STARTS TO SHIFT MORE TO THE WEST THIS WEEKEND...
ALLOWING MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. A FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ALONG THE FRONT. THIS WILL BRING STEADY RAIN TO AT LEAST A PORTION
OF THE REGION. THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE MODELS AS TO
HOW CLOSE THIS FRONT GETS TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE CLOSER THE
FRONT COMES TO THE AREA...THE MORE WIDESPREAD THE RAIN. MODEL
BLEND CURRENTLY BRINGS THE PRECIP INTO SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS
AND RHODE ISLAND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

THROUGH 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS OTHER
THAN LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY
PRONE LOCATIONS. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST WEDNESDAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
A SHOWER LATE WEST OF KMHT-KORE-KBDL-KHFD.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS. TIMING OF SEA BREEZE
MAY BE A LITTLE OFF. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THAT TIMING...WILL
CONTINUE TO FINE-TUNE TIMING AS WELL AS WE CAN.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW
PROBABILITY OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN -SHRA.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  VFR NW.  MVFR CONDITIONS MORE
PROBABLE SE IN -SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. LEFTOVER SWELL WILL ALLOW ROUGH SEAS TO LINGER
INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN OUTER COASTAL WATERS.
OTHERWISE...WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SEAS MAY BUILD TO 5 FEET ACROSS THE
OUTER COASTAL WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS AN OFFSHORE LOW
PRESSURE MOVES BY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER
EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS.

SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.  MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE WITH AN
APPROACHING FRONT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ235-237.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/RLG
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...BELK/RLG
MARINE...BELK/RLG



000
FXUS61 KBOX 291833
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
233 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY AND LESS HUMID WEATHER FOLLOWS TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A
COLD FRONT SWEEPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. A FEW
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE THU AND FRI...BUT
MOST OF THE TIME WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER.  A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN
IS POSSIBLE SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND IF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS CLOSE
ENOUGH TO THE COAST...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
230 PM UPDATE...MADE A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO NEAR TERM CONDITIONS
TO REFLECT LATEST OBSERVED TRENDS. SEA BREEZE HAS DEVELOPED...BUT
THE TIMING IS A LITTLE SLOWER GETTING INTO BOSTON HARBOR AND UPPER
REACHES OF NARRAGANSETT BAY. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK.

FOR TONIGHT...A DRY AIRMASS...BY LATE JULY STANDARDS...WILL
COMBINE WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS TO RESULT IN AN
EXCELLENT NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING. SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG
MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS...BUT NOTHING
WIDESPREAD IS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ANOMALOUS MID LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA...JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN
ANOTHER DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS
AND SUNSHINE ANTICIPATED AS A MOISTURE-STARVED SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED...BUT
THE SHORTWAVE COULD RESULT IN A PASSING SPRINKLE OR TWO. WE WILL
HAVE TO WATCH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING EAST OF THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK...BUT AT THIS TIME APPEARS IT SHOULD BE FAR
ENOUGH AWAY TO SPARE EVEN THE CAPE/ISLANDS ANY MEASURABLE
RAINFALL.

THIS ANOMALOUS MID LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH NUDGES SLIGHTLY CLOSER
TO OUR REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A MODEST SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
THIS LONGWAVE TROUGH COULD ARRIVE SOON ENOUGH TO GIVE US A PASSING
SHOWER LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE CT
RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY OTHERWISE QUIET WEATHER
* LOW PRES COULD BRING RAIN ESPECIALLY TO THE SOUTH COAST SAT

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM.  THERE
ARE DETAIL DIFFERENCES OF COURSE BUT OVERALL THE SYNOPTIC SCALE
PATTERN IS WELL MODELED.  THE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. IS THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF THE LONG TERM.  THE TROUGH IS FAR ENOUGH EAST THAT MOISTURE
IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW SHOWERS ON THURSDAY WITH A SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE
TROUGH.  OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY QUIET AND SEASONABLE WEATHER
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

THE TROUGH AXIS STARTS TO SHIFT MORE TO THE WEST THIS WEEKEND...
ALLOWING MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. A FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ALONG THE FRONT. THIS WILL BRING STEADY RAIN TO AT LEAST A PORTION
OF THE REGION. THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE MODELS AS TO
HOW CLOSE THIS FRONT GETS TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE CLOSER THE
FRONT COMES TO THE AREA...THE MORE WIDESPREAD THE RAIN. MODEL
BLEND CURRENTLY BRINGS THE PRECIP INTO SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS
AND RHODE ISLAND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

THROUGH 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS OTHER
THAN LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY
PRONE LOCATIONS. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST WEDNESDAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
A SHOWER LATE WEST OF KMHT-KORE-KBDL-KHFD.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS. TIMING OF SEA BREEZE
MAY BE A LITTLE OFF. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THAT TIMING...WILL
CONTINUE TO FINE-TUNE TIMING AS WELL AS WE CAN.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW
PROBABILITY OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN -SHRA.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  VFR NW.  MVFR CONDITIONS MORE
PROBABLE SE IN -SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. LEFTOVER SWELL WILL ALLOW ROUGH SEAS TO LINGER
INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN OUTER COASTAL WATERS.
OTHERWISE...WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SEAS MAY BUILD TO 5 FEET ACROSS THE
OUTER COASTAL WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS AN OFFSHORE LOW
PRESSURE MOVES BY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER
EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS.

SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.  MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE WITH AN
APPROACHING FRONT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ235-237.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/RLG
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...BELK/RLG
MARINE...BELK/RLG




000
FXUS61 KOKX 291733
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
133 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN REMAIN JUST OFF THE COAST FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES PASS ACROSS. A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WITH MULTIPLE
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG IT WILL BE NEAR BY OR JUST
OFFSHORE FROM THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MADE MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

DRY AIRMASS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS ONLY AROUND
60 PERCENT OF NORMAL. OTHERWISE...THERE WOULD BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR A FEW TSTMS WITH LOW HEIGHTS AND JULY SUN...SO
HAVE KEPT THE DRY FORECAST GOING. TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR/WILL
SHORTLY HIT THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE THIS AFTERNOON...SO EXPECT
MAINLY SCT CUMULUS FOR THE AFTERNOON - WITH RELATIVELY DRY LOW
LEVELS A LIMITING FACTOR.

THE FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS BEGIN TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT...BUT LINGERING
MOISTURE COULD END UP TRAPPED IN A MID LEVEL INVERSION THE 4-7000 FT
RANGE...SO DID NOT GO WITH A CLEAR FORECAST TONIGHT.

HIGHS TODAY A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 775 HPA PER BUFKIT AND 12Z
SOUNDINGS WITH NAM AND RAP 2-METER TEMPERATURES...6Z MAV GUIDANCE
AND 00Z MET GUIDANCE. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WERE SHADED CLOSER TO
MET GUIDANCE.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE METEOROLOGICAL ENHANCEMENT OF RIP
CURRENTS TODAY AT AREA OCEAN BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS PUT OUT SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIPITATION WED...BUT THE TIME
HEIGHTS INDICATE GENERAL SUBSIDENCE WHICH WOULD TEND TO LIMIT
VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT AND INHIBIT ANY TRIGGER. AS A RESULT HAVE
ONLY INCLUDED ISOLD SPRINKLES ACROSS THE INTERIOR. INCREASING
MOISTURE APPEARS TO COME IN TOO LATE TO COINCIDE WITH PEAK HEATING
TO HAVE ANY SUBSTANTIAL INFLUENCE ON INSTABILITY AT THIS TIME.
CLOUD COVER ADJUSTED UPWARD TO SCT-BKN WITH TEMPS AGAIN ABOVE
CONVECTIVE. TEMPS CLOSE TO GMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A CLOSED LOW OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC WILL DOMINATE FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK. A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PIVOTING AROUND THIS
LOW COULD TRIGGER AN ISOLD LATE DAY SHOWER ACROSS THE INTERIOR ON
THU. COULD ALSO SEE SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS AGAIN FRI AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING WITH ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE AND GREATER INSTABILITY.

AS THE CANADIAN CLOSED LOW WEAKENS OVER THE WEEKEND...A PORTION
WILL DROP INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY...WHILE AN UPPER HIGH
STRENGTHENS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE STRENGTHENING UPPER
HIGH WILL PUSH AN OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE BACK TOWARD THE
COAST...WHILE THE INLAND TROUGH INDUCES WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
ALONG IT AND/OR TRIGGERS SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION. ECMWF AND GGEM
ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SCENARIO THAN THE GFS...BUT DIFFER
ON TIMING. AT THIS TIME DECIDED TO INCORPORATE ASPECTS OF BOTH
INTO THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME WITH SOME DIURNAL
FLUCTUATION...WITH CHANCE POP SAT INTO SAT EVENING AND AGAIN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

THE TROUGH TO THE WEST IS FCST TO BEGIN SHEARING OUT TO THE NE LATE
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...KICKING THE OFFSHORE FRONTAL
ZONE TO THE EAST. AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES AND INTERACTS WITH A
TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS...COULD SEE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS/TSTMS MON AFTERNOON/EVENING.

TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR AVG THU-FRI...THEN A LITTLE BELOW AVG THIS
WEEKEND VIA CLOUD COVER AND GREATER POP...THEN RETURNING TO NEAR AVG
ON MON.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SEA BREEZE IS CURRENTLY HOVERING ALONG THE BARRIER ISLANDS JUST
SOUTH OF THE COAST...AND WITH NW FLOW AT 10-12 KT...SEA BREEZE
HAS BEEN SLOW TO TRACK INLAND. WILL BACK WINDS AT COASTAL
TERMINALS TO THE SW AT 19-20Z...AND THEN TO THE S FROM 20-22Z. FOR
INLAND TERMINALS...WINDS WILL BACK TO A W-SW FLOW BY 22Z.

VRB WINDS 5 KT OR LESS AT ALL TERMINALS FROM 03-05Z THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. SEA BREEZES QUICKLY DEVELOP LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER...
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

..NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FORECASTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE WILL TURN WINDS TO 200-220 MAG
BY 21Z. TIMING COULD BE OFF BY +/- 1 HOUR.

KLGA FORECASTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE WILL TURN WINDS TO AROUND 200
MAG BY 21Z. TIMING COULD BE OFF BY +/- 1 HOUR.

KEWR FORECASTER COMMENTS: WINDS 270-290 MAG THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
OCNL GUSTS TO 17 KT POSSIBLE THROUGH 22Z.

KTEB FORECASTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FORECASTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FORECASTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE WILL TURN WINDS TO 250-270 MAG
BY 21Z. TIMING COULD BE OFF BY +/- 1 HOUR.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY...VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE AT KSWF IN THE
AFTERNOON.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM KBDR TO KFRG.
VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS.
.SATURDAY-SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR...SUB-VFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN SCT
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
MADE MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

WIND AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE WATERS.

CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN QUIET WED NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT. SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN TO APPROACH SCA LEVELS DEPENDING ON POSITION
OF AN OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE AND TIMING OF ANY ASSOCIATED WEAK WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRI. PARTS OF THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST...HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN THIS WEEKEND...DEPENDING ON THE POSITION OF AN OFFSHORE
FRONTAL ZONE AND TIMING OF ANY ASSOCIATED WEAK WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE. THIS POTENTIAL IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY...SO IT IS TOO
EARLY TO OFFER SPECIFIC FORECAST DETAILS OR TO MENTION IN HWO.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...JMC/MALOIT
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...JMC/GOODMAN/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...JMC/GOODMAN









000
FXUS61 KOKX 291733
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
133 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN REMAIN JUST OFF THE COAST FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES PASS ACROSS. A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WITH MULTIPLE
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG IT WILL BE NEAR BY OR JUST
OFFSHORE FROM THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MADE MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

DRY AIRMASS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS ONLY AROUND
60 PERCENT OF NORMAL. OTHERWISE...THERE WOULD BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR A FEW TSTMS WITH LOW HEIGHTS AND JULY SUN...SO
HAVE KEPT THE DRY FORECAST GOING. TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR/WILL
SHORTLY HIT THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE THIS AFTERNOON...SO EXPECT
MAINLY SCT CUMULUS FOR THE AFTERNOON - WITH RELATIVELY DRY LOW
LEVELS A LIMITING FACTOR.

THE FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS BEGIN TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT...BUT LINGERING
MOISTURE COULD END UP TRAPPED IN A MID LEVEL INVERSION THE 4-7000 FT
RANGE...SO DID NOT GO WITH A CLEAR FORECAST TONIGHT.

HIGHS TODAY A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 775 HPA PER BUFKIT AND 12Z
SOUNDINGS WITH NAM AND RAP 2-METER TEMPERATURES...6Z MAV GUIDANCE
AND 00Z MET GUIDANCE. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WERE SHADED CLOSER TO
MET GUIDANCE.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE METEOROLOGICAL ENHANCEMENT OF RIP
CURRENTS TODAY AT AREA OCEAN BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS PUT OUT SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIPITATION WED...BUT THE TIME
HEIGHTS INDICATE GENERAL SUBSIDENCE WHICH WOULD TEND TO LIMIT
VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT AND INHIBIT ANY TRIGGER. AS A RESULT HAVE
ONLY INCLUDED ISOLD SPRINKLES ACROSS THE INTERIOR. INCREASING
MOISTURE APPEARS TO COME IN TOO LATE TO COINCIDE WITH PEAK HEATING
TO HAVE ANY SUBSTANTIAL INFLUENCE ON INSTABILITY AT THIS TIME.
CLOUD COVER ADJUSTED UPWARD TO SCT-BKN WITH TEMPS AGAIN ABOVE
CONVECTIVE. TEMPS CLOSE TO GMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A CLOSED LOW OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC WILL DOMINATE FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK. A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PIVOTING AROUND THIS
LOW COULD TRIGGER AN ISOLD LATE DAY SHOWER ACROSS THE INTERIOR ON
THU. COULD ALSO SEE SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS AGAIN FRI AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING WITH ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE AND GREATER INSTABILITY.

AS THE CANADIAN CLOSED LOW WEAKENS OVER THE WEEKEND...A PORTION
WILL DROP INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY...WHILE AN UPPER HIGH
STRENGTHENS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE STRENGTHENING UPPER
HIGH WILL PUSH AN OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE BACK TOWARD THE
COAST...WHILE THE INLAND TROUGH INDUCES WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
ALONG IT AND/OR TRIGGERS SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION. ECMWF AND GGEM
ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SCENARIO THAN THE GFS...BUT DIFFER
ON TIMING. AT THIS TIME DECIDED TO INCORPORATE ASPECTS OF BOTH
INTO THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME WITH SOME DIURNAL
FLUCTUATION...WITH CHANCE POP SAT INTO SAT EVENING AND AGAIN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

THE TROUGH TO THE WEST IS FCST TO BEGIN SHEARING OUT TO THE NE LATE
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...KICKING THE OFFSHORE FRONTAL
ZONE TO THE EAST. AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES AND INTERACTS WITH A
TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS...COULD SEE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS/TSTMS MON AFTERNOON/EVENING.

TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR AVG THU-FRI...THEN A LITTLE BELOW AVG THIS
WEEKEND VIA CLOUD COVER AND GREATER POP...THEN RETURNING TO NEAR AVG
ON MON.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SEA BREEZE IS CURRENTLY HOVERING ALONG THE BARRIER ISLANDS JUST
SOUTH OF THE COAST...AND WITH NW FLOW AT 10-12 KT...SEA BREEZE
HAS BEEN SLOW TO TRACK INLAND. WILL BACK WINDS AT COASTAL
TERMINALS TO THE SW AT 19-20Z...AND THEN TO THE S FROM 20-22Z. FOR
INLAND TERMINALS...WINDS WILL BACK TO A W-SW FLOW BY 22Z.

VRB WINDS 5 KT OR LESS AT ALL TERMINALS FROM 03-05Z THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. SEA BREEZES QUICKLY DEVELOP LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER...
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

..NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FORECASTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE WILL TURN WINDS TO 200-220 MAG
BY 21Z. TIMING COULD BE OFF BY +/- 1 HOUR.

KLGA FORECASTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE WILL TURN WINDS TO AROUND 200
MAG BY 21Z. TIMING COULD BE OFF BY +/- 1 HOUR.

KEWR FORECASTER COMMENTS: WINDS 270-290 MAG THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
OCNL GUSTS TO 17 KT POSSIBLE THROUGH 22Z.

KTEB FORECASTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FORECASTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FORECASTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE WILL TURN WINDS TO 250-270 MAG
BY 21Z. TIMING COULD BE OFF BY +/- 1 HOUR.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY...VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE AT KSWF IN THE
AFTERNOON.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM KBDR TO KFRG.
VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS.
.SATURDAY-SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR...SUB-VFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN SCT
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
MADE MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

WIND AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE WATERS.

CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN QUIET WED NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT. SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN TO APPROACH SCA LEVELS DEPENDING ON POSITION
OF AN OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE AND TIMING OF ANY ASSOCIATED WEAK WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRI. PARTS OF THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST...HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN THIS WEEKEND...DEPENDING ON THE POSITION OF AN OFFSHORE
FRONTAL ZONE AND TIMING OF ANY ASSOCIATED WEAK WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE. THIS POTENTIAL IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY...SO IT IS TOO
EARLY TO OFFER SPECIFIC FORECAST DETAILS OR TO MENTION IN HWO.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...JMC/MALOIT
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...JMC/GOODMAN/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...JMC/GOODMAN










000
FXUS61 KALY 291714
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
114 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL BE A DRY AFTERNOON FEELING MORE LIKE EARLY SEPTEMBER THAN
LATE JULY.  DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE LOW
IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE NUMEROUS ON THURSDAY DUE TO A
STRONGER DISTURBANCE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1245 PM EDT...LOTS OF CUMULUS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS MOST AREAS
DUE TO A STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATE SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. HOWEVER...THE 12Z ALY RAOB INDICATED A PRETTY IMPRESSIVE
MID LEVEL CAP (WARMING) IN THE SOUNDING SO CUMULUS SHOULD NOT GROW
TALL ENOUGH FOR THUNDER OR ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL. HOWEVER...IT IS
POSSIBLE A FEW SPRINKLES COULD FALL...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

FOR THIS UPDATE...INCLUDED A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. ADDED A FEW CLOUDS PER SATELLITE AND CANADIAN ASTRONOMICAL
CLOUD FORECAST DATA. HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK FINE GIVEN THE RAOB AND
UPPER AIR DATA.

SO FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...LOOK FOR A MIX OF CLOUDS AND
SUNSHINE...THAT SPRINKLE POSSIBILITY (RAINFALL TOO LIGHT TO MEASURE)
AND COOL BREEZE FROM THE NORTHWEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S IN THE VALLEYS...ONLY AROUND 70 ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...SO COOLER THAN NORMAL. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL COMFORTABLE
WITH DEWPOINTS HOLDING AROUND 50 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LARGE CLOSED LOW AS IT
WOBBLES OVER EASTERN CANADA AS SHORT WAVES WILL ROTATE ABOUT IT.
WITH THE HELP OF DAYTIME HEATING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR. THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE
WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY AFFECTING MORE OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A
STRONGER SHORT WAVE APPROACHES AND PASSES OVERHEAD.

DAYTIME HIGHS ARE ANTICIPATED TO FALL A BIT SHORT OF NORMAL FOR LATE
JULY. NIGHTTIME WILL BE ON THE COOLER SIDE RUNNING ABOUT 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT AND AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHEAST...AND STRONG RIDGING IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CONUS.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BE
WEAKENING...HOWEVER...ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS...COMBINED WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW AND DAYTIME HEATING...WILL BE ENOUGH TO CONTINUE A THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEKEND. THE
BEST CHANCE OF A SHOWER/TSTM WILL BE IN THE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS...THANKS TO HEATING. TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE...WITH HIGHS N THE
70S TO LOW 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EVEN
INTO MONDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
CONUS...EVEN THOUGH IT WON/T BE AS PRONOUNCED AND THE TROUGH WON/T
CERTAINLY BE AS SHARP IN AMPLITUDE. AS A RESULT...TEMPS WILL BE A
LITTLE WARMER THAN THE WEEKEND FOR MONDAY...WITH HIGHS IN VALLEY
AREAS REACHING WELL INTO THE 80S...BUT THE THREAT FOR AN
AFTN/EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION AND QUITE A
BIT OF FAIR WEATHER CLOUDINESS HAS MADE FOR SCATTERED VARIABLE
BROKEN CLOUDS ABOVE 3000 FEET. THE CLOUDS SHOULD DECREASE IN
COVERAGE THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE NIGHT...WHILE MORE SCATTERED
CLOUDS ABOVE 3000 FEET ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW. SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 06Z-13Z AT KGFL AND KPSF WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

WEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOONAT 10 KT...OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 15 KT
AT KALB AND KPSF. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT...THEN SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST AT LESS THAN 10 KT TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY ALLOWING
HIGHER PRESSURE TO BUILD IN RESULTING IN A FAIR BUT COOL DAY.
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE LOW IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY DUE TO A
STRONGER DISTURBANCE.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40 TO 50
PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A
RECOVERY TO 80 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT IS EXPECTED FOR THE OVERNIGHTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY WHICH WILL ALLOW RIVER AND STREAM
LEVELS TO RECEDE. HOWEVER...THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED THIS
WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS LOW WILL WOBBLE
OVER EASTERN CANADA AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT. THE LOW WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND HOWEVER THE THREAT FOR
STORMS WILL CONTINUE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV/NAS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA








000
FXUS61 KALY 291714
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
114 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL BE A DRY AFTERNOON FEELING MORE LIKE EARLY SEPTEMBER THAN
LATE JULY.  DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE LOW
IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE NUMEROUS ON THURSDAY DUE TO A
STRONGER DISTURBANCE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1245 PM EDT...LOTS OF CUMULUS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS MOST AREAS
DUE TO A STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATE SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. HOWEVER...THE 12Z ALY RAOB INDICATED A PRETTY IMPRESSIVE
MID LEVEL CAP (WARMING) IN THE SOUNDING SO CUMULUS SHOULD NOT GROW
TALL ENOUGH FOR THUNDER OR ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL. HOWEVER...IT IS
POSSIBLE A FEW SPRINKLES COULD FALL...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

FOR THIS UPDATE...INCLUDED A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. ADDED A FEW CLOUDS PER SATELLITE AND CANADIAN ASTRONOMICAL
CLOUD FORECAST DATA. HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK FINE GIVEN THE RAOB AND
UPPER AIR DATA.

SO FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...LOOK FOR A MIX OF CLOUDS AND
SUNSHINE...THAT SPRINKLE POSSIBILITY (RAINFALL TOO LIGHT TO MEASURE)
AND COOL BREEZE FROM THE NORTHWEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S IN THE VALLEYS...ONLY AROUND 70 ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...SO COOLER THAN NORMAL. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL COMFORTABLE
WITH DEWPOINTS HOLDING AROUND 50 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LARGE CLOSED LOW AS IT
WOBBLES OVER EASTERN CANADA AS SHORT WAVES WILL ROTATE ABOUT IT.
WITH THE HELP OF DAYTIME HEATING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR. THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE
WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY AFFECTING MORE OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A
STRONGER SHORT WAVE APPROACHES AND PASSES OVERHEAD.

DAYTIME HIGHS ARE ANTICIPATED TO FALL A BIT SHORT OF NORMAL FOR LATE
JULY. NIGHTTIME WILL BE ON THE COOLER SIDE RUNNING ABOUT 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT AND AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHEAST...AND STRONG RIDGING IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CONUS.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BE
WEAKENING...HOWEVER...ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS...COMBINED WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW AND DAYTIME HEATING...WILL BE ENOUGH TO CONTINUE A THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEKEND. THE
BEST CHANCE OF A SHOWER/TSTM WILL BE IN THE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS...THANKS TO HEATING. TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE...WITH HIGHS N THE
70S TO LOW 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EVEN
INTO MONDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
CONUS...EVEN THOUGH IT WON/T BE AS PRONOUNCED AND THE TROUGH WON/T
CERTAINLY BE AS SHARP IN AMPLITUDE. AS A RESULT...TEMPS WILL BE A
LITTLE WARMER THAN THE WEEKEND FOR MONDAY...WITH HIGHS IN VALLEY
AREAS REACHING WELL INTO THE 80S...BUT THE THREAT FOR AN
AFTN/EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION AND QUITE A
BIT OF FAIR WEATHER CLOUDINESS HAS MADE FOR SCATTERED VARIABLE
BROKEN CLOUDS ABOVE 3000 FEET. THE CLOUDS SHOULD DECREASE IN
COVERAGE THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE NIGHT...WHILE MORE SCATTERED
CLOUDS ABOVE 3000 FEET ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW. SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 06Z-13Z AT KGFL AND KPSF WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

WEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOONAT 10 KT...OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 15 KT
AT KALB AND KPSF. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT...THEN SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST AT LESS THAN 10 KT TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY ALLOWING
HIGHER PRESSURE TO BUILD IN RESULTING IN A FAIR BUT COOL DAY.
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE LOW IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY DUE TO A
STRONGER DISTURBANCE.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40 TO 50
PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A
RECOVERY TO 80 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT IS EXPECTED FOR THE OVERNIGHTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY WHICH WILL ALLOW RIVER AND STREAM
LEVELS TO RECEDE. HOWEVER...THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED THIS
WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS LOW WILL WOBBLE
OVER EASTERN CANADA AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT. THE LOW WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND HOWEVER THE THREAT FOR
STORMS WILL CONTINUE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV/NAS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA







000
FXUS61 KOKX 291655
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1255 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN REMAIN JUST OFF THE COAST FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES PASS ACROSS. A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WITH MULTIPLE
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG IT WILL BE NEAR BY OR JUST
OFFSHORE FROM THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MADE MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

DRY AIRMASS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS ONLY AROUND
60 PERCENT OF NORMAL. OTHERWISE...THERE WOULD BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR A FEW TSTMS WITH LOW HEIGHTS AND JULY SUN...SO
HAVE KEPT THE DRY FORECAST GOING. TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR/WILL
SHORTLY HIT THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE THIS AFTERNOON...SO EXPECT
MAINLY SCT CUMULUS FOR THE AFTERNOON - WITH RELATIVELY DRY LOW
LEVELS A LIMITING FACTOR.

THE FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS BEGIN TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT...BUT LINGERING
MOISTURE COULD END UP TRAPPED IN A MID LEVEL INVERSION THE 4-7000 FT
RANGE...SO DID NOT GO WITH A CLEAR FORECAST TONIGHT.

HIGHS TODAY A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 775 HPA PER BUFKIT AND 12Z
SOUNDINGS WITH NAM AND RAP 2-METER TEMPERATURES...6Z MAV GUIDANCE
AND 00Z MET GUIDANCE. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WERE SHADED CLOSER TO
MET GUIDANCE.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE METEOROLOGICAL ENHANCEMENT OF RIP
CURRENTS TODAY AT AREA OCEAN BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS PUT OUT SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIPITATION WED...BUT THE TIME
HEIGHTS INDICATE GENERAL SUBSIDENCE WHICH WOULD TEND TO LIMIT
VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT AND INHIBIT ANY TRIGGER. AS A RESULT HAVE
ONLY INCLUDED ISOLD SPRINKLES ACROSS THE INTERIOR. INCREASING
MOISTURE APPEARS TO COME IN TOO LATE TO COINCIDE WITH PEAK HEATING
TO HAVE ANY SUBSTANTIAL INFLUENCE ON INSTABILITY AT THIS TIME.
CLOUD COVER ADJUSTED UPWARD TO SCT-BKN WITH TEMPS AGAIN ABOVE
CONVECTIVE. TEMPS CLOSE TO GMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A CLOSED LOW OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC WILL DOMINATE FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK. A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PIVOTING AROUND THIS
LOW COULD TRIGGER AN ISOLD LATE DAY SHOWER ACROSS THE INTERIOR ON
THU. COULD ALSO SEE SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS AGAIN FRI AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING WITH ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE AND GREATER INSTABILITY.

AS THE CANADIAN CLOSED LOW WEAKENS OVER THE WEEKEND...A PORTION WILL
DROP INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY...WHILE AN UPPER HIGH
STRENGTHENS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE STRENGTHENING UPPER HIGH
WILL PUSH AN OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE BACK TOWARD THE COAST...WHILE THE
INLAND TROUGH INDUCES WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG IT AND/OR
TRIGGERS SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION. ECMWF AND GGEM ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH THIS SCENARIO THAN THE GFS...BUT DIFFER ON TIMING. AT THIS TIME DECIDED
TO INCORPORATE ASPECTS OF BOTH INTO THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME
WITH SOME DIURNAL FLUCTUATION...WITH CHANCE POP SAT INTO SAT EVENING
AND AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

THE TROUGH TO THE WEST IS FCST TO BEGIN SHEARING OUT TO THE NE LATE
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...KICKING THE OFFSHORE FRONTAL
ZONE TO THE EAST. AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES AND INTERACTS WITH A
TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS...COULD SEE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS/TSTMS MON AFTERNOON/EVENING.

TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR AVG THU-FRI...THEN A LITTLE BELOW AVG THIS
WEEKEND VIA CLOUD COVER AND GREATER POP...THEN RETURNING TO NEAR AVG
ON MON.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL FOR TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO PREVIOUS TAF PACKAGE. ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON LATEST OBS.

OTHERWISE...VFR. W-NW FLOW AT 10 KT OR LESS WILL BACK TO THE W-SW
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SEA BREEZES LIKELY FOR COASTAL TERMINALS.

..NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE TIMING COULD BE OFF BY AN HOUR IN
EITHER DIRECTION.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE IF SEA BREEZE DOES NOT
ARRIVE AS QUICKLY AS FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR SEA BREEZE TIMING
AND DIRECTION...WINDS COULD GO MORE SOUTHERLY THAN FORECAST.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE TIMING MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR IN
EITHER DIRECTION.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WEDNESDAY...VFR.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM KBDR TO KFRG.
VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
MADE MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

WIND AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE WATERS.

CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN QUIET WED NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT. SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN TO APPROACH SCA LEVELS DEPENDING ON POSITION
OF AN OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE AND TIMING OF ANY ASSOCIATED WEAK WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRI. PARTS OF THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST...HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN THIS WEEKEND...DEPENDING ON THE POSITION OF AN OFFSHORE
FRONTAL ZONE AND TIMING OF ANY ASSOCIATED WEAK WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE. THIS POTENTIAL IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY...SO IT IS TOO
EARLY TO OFFER SPECIFIC FORECAST DETAILS OR TO MENTION IN HWO.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...JMC/MALOIT
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...JMC/GOODMAN/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...JMC/GOODMAN







000
FXUS61 KOKX 291655
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1255 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN REMAIN JUST OFF THE COAST FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES PASS ACROSS. A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WITH MULTIPLE
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG IT WILL BE NEAR BY OR JUST
OFFSHORE FROM THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MADE MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

DRY AIRMASS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS ONLY AROUND
60 PERCENT OF NORMAL. OTHERWISE...THERE WOULD BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR A FEW TSTMS WITH LOW HEIGHTS AND JULY SUN...SO
HAVE KEPT THE DRY FORECAST GOING. TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR/WILL
SHORTLY HIT THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE THIS AFTERNOON...SO EXPECT
MAINLY SCT CUMULUS FOR THE AFTERNOON - WITH RELATIVELY DRY LOW
LEVELS A LIMITING FACTOR.

THE FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS BEGIN TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT...BUT LINGERING
MOISTURE COULD END UP TRAPPED IN A MID LEVEL INVERSION THE 4-7000 FT
RANGE...SO DID NOT GO WITH A CLEAR FORECAST TONIGHT.

HIGHS TODAY A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 775 HPA PER BUFKIT AND 12Z
SOUNDINGS WITH NAM AND RAP 2-METER TEMPERATURES...6Z MAV GUIDANCE
AND 00Z MET GUIDANCE. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WERE SHADED CLOSER TO
MET GUIDANCE.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE METEOROLOGICAL ENHANCEMENT OF RIP
CURRENTS TODAY AT AREA OCEAN BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS PUT OUT SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIPITATION WED...BUT THE TIME
HEIGHTS INDICATE GENERAL SUBSIDENCE WHICH WOULD TEND TO LIMIT
VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT AND INHIBIT ANY TRIGGER. AS A RESULT HAVE
ONLY INCLUDED ISOLD SPRINKLES ACROSS THE INTERIOR. INCREASING
MOISTURE APPEARS TO COME IN TOO LATE TO COINCIDE WITH PEAK HEATING
TO HAVE ANY SUBSTANTIAL INFLUENCE ON INSTABILITY AT THIS TIME.
CLOUD COVER ADJUSTED UPWARD TO SCT-BKN WITH TEMPS AGAIN ABOVE
CONVECTIVE. TEMPS CLOSE TO GMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A CLOSED LOW OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC WILL DOMINATE FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK. A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PIVOTING AROUND THIS
LOW COULD TRIGGER AN ISOLD LATE DAY SHOWER ACROSS THE INTERIOR ON
THU. COULD ALSO SEE SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS AGAIN FRI AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING WITH ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE AND GREATER INSTABILITY.

AS THE CANADIAN CLOSED LOW WEAKENS OVER THE WEEKEND...A PORTION WILL
DROP INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY...WHILE AN UPPER HIGH
STRENGTHENS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE STRENGTHENING UPPER HIGH
WILL PUSH AN OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE BACK TOWARD THE COAST...WHILE THE
INLAND TROUGH INDUCES WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG IT AND/OR
TRIGGERS SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION. ECMWF AND GGEM ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH THIS SCENARIO THAN THE GFS...BUT DIFFER ON TIMING. AT THIS TIME DECIDED
TO INCORPORATE ASPECTS OF BOTH INTO THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME
WITH SOME DIURNAL FLUCTUATION...WITH CHANCE POP SAT INTO SAT EVENING
AND AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

THE TROUGH TO THE WEST IS FCST TO BEGIN SHEARING OUT TO THE NE LATE
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...KICKING THE OFFSHORE FRONTAL
ZONE TO THE EAST. AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES AND INTERACTS WITH A
TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS...COULD SEE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS/TSTMS MON AFTERNOON/EVENING.

TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR AVG THU-FRI...THEN A LITTLE BELOW AVG THIS
WEEKEND VIA CLOUD COVER AND GREATER POP...THEN RETURNING TO NEAR AVG
ON MON.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL FOR TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO PREVIOUS TAF PACKAGE. ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON LATEST OBS.

OTHERWISE...VFR. W-NW FLOW AT 10 KT OR LESS WILL BACK TO THE W-SW
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SEA BREEZES LIKELY FOR COASTAL TERMINALS.

..NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE TIMING COULD BE OFF BY AN HOUR IN
EITHER DIRECTION.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE IF SEA BREEZE DOES NOT
ARRIVE AS QUICKLY AS FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR SEA BREEZE TIMING
AND DIRECTION...WINDS COULD GO MORE SOUTHERLY THAN FORECAST.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE TIMING MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR IN
EITHER DIRECTION.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WEDNESDAY...VFR.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM KBDR TO KFRG.
VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
MADE MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

WIND AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE WATERS.

CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN QUIET WED NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT. SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN TO APPROACH SCA LEVELS DEPENDING ON POSITION
OF AN OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE AND TIMING OF ANY ASSOCIATED WEAK WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRI. PARTS OF THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST...HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN THIS WEEKEND...DEPENDING ON THE POSITION OF AN OFFSHORE
FRONTAL ZONE AND TIMING OF ANY ASSOCIATED WEAK WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE. THIS POTENTIAL IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY...SO IT IS TOO
EARLY TO OFFER SPECIFIC FORECAST DETAILS OR TO MENTION IN HWO.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...JMC/MALOIT
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...JMC/GOODMAN/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...JMC/GOODMAN







000
FXUS61 KOKX 291655
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1255 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN REMAIN JUST OFF THE COAST FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES PASS ACROSS. A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WITH MULTIPLE
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG IT WILL BE NEAR BY OR JUST
OFFSHORE FROM THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MADE MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

DRY AIRMASS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS ONLY AROUND
60 PERCENT OF NORMAL. OTHERWISE...THERE WOULD BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR A FEW TSTMS WITH LOW HEIGHTS AND JULY SUN...SO
HAVE KEPT THE DRY FORECAST GOING. TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR/WILL
SHORTLY HIT THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE THIS AFTERNOON...SO EXPECT
MAINLY SCT CUMULUS FOR THE AFTERNOON - WITH RELATIVELY DRY LOW
LEVELS A LIMITING FACTOR.

THE FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS BEGIN TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT...BUT LINGERING
MOISTURE COULD END UP TRAPPED IN A MID LEVEL INVERSION THE 4-7000 FT
RANGE...SO DID NOT GO WITH A CLEAR FORECAST TONIGHT.

HIGHS TODAY A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 775 HPA PER BUFKIT AND 12Z
SOUNDINGS WITH NAM AND RAP 2-METER TEMPERATURES...6Z MAV GUIDANCE
AND 00Z MET GUIDANCE. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WERE SHADED CLOSER TO
MET GUIDANCE.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE METEOROLOGICAL ENHANCEMENT OF RIP
CURRENTS TODAY AT AREA OCEAN BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS PUT OUT SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIPITATION WED...BUT THE TIME
HEIGHTS INDICATE GENERAL SUBSIDENCE WHICH WOULD TEND TO LIMIT
VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT AND INHIBIT ANY TRIGGER. AS A RESULT HAVE
ONLY INCLUDED ISOLD SPRINKLES ACROSS THE INTERIOR. INCREASING
MOISTURE APPEARS TO COME IN TOO LATE TO COINCIDE WITH PEAK HEATING
TO HAVE ANY SUBSTANTIAL INFLUENCE ON INSTABILITY AT THIS TIME.
CLOUD COVER ADJUSTED UPWARD TO SCT-BKN WITH TEMPS AGAIN ABOVE
CONVECTIVE. TEMPS CLOSE TO GMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A CLOSED LOW OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC WILL DOMINATE FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK. A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PIVOTING AROUND THIS
LOW COULD TRIGGER AN ISOLD LATE DAY SHOWER ACROSS THE INTERIOR ON
THU. COULD ALSO SEE SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS AGAIN FRI AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING WITH ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE AND GREATER INSTABILITY.

AS THE CANADIAN CLOSED LOW WEAKENS OVER THE WEEKEND...A PORTION WILL
DROP INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY...WHILE AN UPPER HIGH
STRENGTHENS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE STRENGTHENING UPPER HIGH
WILL PUSH AN OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE BACK TOWARD THE COAST...WHILE THE
INLAND TROUGH INDUCES WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG IT AND/OR
TRIGGERS SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION. ECMWF AND GGEM ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH THIS SCENARIO THAN THE GFS...BUT DIFFER ON TIMING. AT THIS TIME DECIDED
TO INCORPORATE ASPECTS OF BOTH INTO THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME
WITH SOME DIURNAL FLUCTUATION...WITH CHANCE POP SAT INTO SAT EVENING
AND AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

THE TROUGH TO THE WEST IS FCST TO BEGIN SHEARING OUT TO THE NE LATE
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...KICKING THE OFFSHORE FRONTAL
ZONE TO THE EAST. AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES AND INTERACTS WITH A
TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS...COULD SEE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS/TSTMS MON AFTERNOON/EVENING.

TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR AVG THU-FRI...THEN A LITTLE BELOW AVG THIS
WEEKEND VIA CLOUD COVER AND GREATER POP...THEN RETURNING TO NEAR AVG
ON MON.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL FOR TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO PREVIOUS TAF PACKAGE. ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON LATEST OBS.

OTHERWISE...VFR. W-NW FLOW AT 10 KT OR LESS WILL BACK TO THE W-SW
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SEA BREEZES LIKELY FOR COASTAL TERMINALS.

..NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE TIMING COULD BE OFF BY AN HOUR IN
EITHER DIRECTION.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE IF SEA BREEZE DOES NOT
ARRIVE AS QUICKLY AS FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR SEA BREEZE TIMING
AND DIRECTION...WINDS COULD GO MORE SOUTHERLY THAN FORECAST.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE TIMING MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR IN
EITHER DIRECTION.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WEDNESDAY...VFR.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM KBDR TO KFRG.
VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
MADE MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

WIND AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE WATERS.

CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN QUIET WED NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT. SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN TO APPROACH SCA LEVELS DEPENDING ON POSITION
OF AN OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE AND TIMING OF ANY ASSOCIATED WEAK WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRI. PARTS OF THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST...HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN THIS WEEKEND...DEPENDING ON THE POSITION OF AN OFFSHORE
FRONTAL ZONE AND TIMING OF ANY ASSOCIATED WEAK WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE. THIS POTENTIAL IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY...SO IT IS TOO
EARLY TO OFFER SPECIFIC FORECAST DETAILS OR TO MENTION IN HWO.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...JMC/MALOIT
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...JMC/GOODMAN/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...JMC/GOODMAN







000
FXUS61 KOKX 291655
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1255 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN REMAIN JUST OFF THE COAST FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES PASS ACROSS. A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WITH MULTIPLE
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG IT WILL BE NEAR BY OR JUST
OFFSHORE FROM THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MADE MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

DRY AIRMASS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS ONLY AROUND
60 PERCENT OF NORMAL. OTHERWISE...THERE WOULD BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR A FEW TSTMS WITH LOW HEIGHTS AND JULY SUN...SO
HAVE KEPT THE DRY FORECAST GOING. TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR/WILL
SHORTLY HIT THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE THIS AFTERNOON...SO EXPECT
MAINLY SCT CUMULUS FOR THE AFTERNOON - WITH RELATIVELY DRY LOW
LEVELS A LIMITING FACTOR.

THE FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS BEGIN TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT...BUT LINGERING
MOISTURE COULD END UP TRAPPED IN A MID LEVEL INVERSION THE 4-7000 FT
RANGE...SO DID NOT GO WITH A CLEAR FORECAST TONIGHT.

HIGHS TODAY A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 775 HPA PER BUFKIT AND 12Z
SOUNDINGS WITH NAM AND RAP 2-METER TEMPERATURES...6Z MAV GUIDANCE
AND 00Z MET GUIDANCE. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WERE SHADED CLOSER TO
MET GUIDANCE.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE METEOROLOGICAL ENHANCEMENT OF RIP
CURRENTS TODAY AT AREA OCEAN BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS PUT OUT SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIPITATION WED...BUT THE TIME
HEIGHTS INDICATE GENERAL SUBSIDENCE WHICH WOULD TEND TO LIMIT
VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT AND INHIBIT ANY TRIGGER. AS A RESULT HAVE
ONLY INCLUDED ISOLD SPRINKLES ACROSS THE INTERIOR. INCREASING
MOISTURE APPEARS TO COME IN TOO LATE TO COINCIDE WITH PEAK HEATING
TO HAVE ANY SUBSTANTIAL INFLUENCE ON INSTABILITY AT THIS TIME.
CLOUD COVER ADJUSTED UPWARD TO SCT-BKN WITH TEMPS AGAIN ABOVE
CONVECTIVE. TEMPS CLOSE TO GMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A CLOSED LOW OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC WILL DOMINATE FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK. A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PIVOTING AROUND THIS
LOW COULD TRIGGER AN ISOLD LATE DAY SHOWER ACROSS THE INTERIOR ON
THU. COULD ALSO SEE SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS AGAIN FRI AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING WITH ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE AND GREATER INSTABILITY.

AS THE CANADIAN CLOSED LOW WEAKENS OVER THE WEEKEND...A PORTION WILL
DROP INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY...WHILE AN UPPER HIGH
STRENGTHENS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE STRENGTHENING UPPER HIGH
WILL PUSH AN OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE BACK TOWARD THE COAST...WHILE THE
INLAND TROUGH INDUCES WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG IT AND/OR
TRIGGERS SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION. ECMWF AND GGEM ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH THIS SCENARIO THAN THE GFS...BUT DIFFER ON TIMING. AT THIS TIME DECIDED
TO INCORPORATE ASPECTS OF BOTH INTO THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME
WITH SOME DIURNAL FLUCTUATION...WITH CHANCE POP SAT INTO SAT EVENING
AND AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

THE TROUGH TO THE WEST IS FCST TO BEGIN SHEARING OUT TO THE NE LATE
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...KICKING THE OFFSHORE FRONTAL
ZONE TO THE EAST. AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES AND INTERACTS WITH A
TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS...COULD SEE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS/TSTMS MON AFTERNOON/EVENING.

TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR AVG THU-FRI...THEN A LITTLE BELOW AVG THIS
WEEKEND VIA CLOUD COVER AND GREATER POP...THEN RETURNING TO NEAR AVG
ON MON.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL FOR TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO PREVIOUS TAF PACKAGE. ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON LATEST OBS.

OTHERWISE...VFR. W-NW FLOW AT 10 KT OR LESS WILL BACK TO THE W-SW
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SEA BREEZES LIKELY FOR COASTAL TERMINALS.

..NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE TIMING COULD BE OFF BY AN HOUR IN
EITHER DIRECTION.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE IF SEA BREEZE DOES NOT
ARRIVE AS QUICKLY AS FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR SEA BREEZE TIMING
AND DIRECTION...WINDS COULD GO MORE SOUTHERLY THAN FORECAST.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE TIMING MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR IN
EITHER DIRECTION.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WEDNESDAY...VFR.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM KBDR TO KFRG.
VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
MADE MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

WIND AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE WATERS.

CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN QUIET WED NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT. SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN TO APPROACH SCA LEVELS DEPENDING ON POSITION
OF AN OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE AND TIMING OF ANY ASSOCIATED WEAK WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRI. PARTS OF THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST...HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN THIS WEEKEND...DEPENDING ON THE POSITION OF AN OFFSHORE
FRONTAL ZONE AND TIMING OF ANY ASSOCIATED WEAK WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE. THIS POTENTIAL IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY...SO IT IS TOO
EARLY TO OFFER SPECIFIC FORECAST DETAILS OR TO MENTION IN HWO.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...JMC/MALOIT
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...JMC/GOODMAN/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...JMC/GOODMAN







000
FXUS61 KALY 291648
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1245 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL BE A DRY AFTERNOON FEELING MORE LIKE EARLY SEPTEMBER THAN
LATE JULY.  DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE LOW
IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE NUMEROUS ON THURSDAY DUE TO A
STRONGER DISTURBANCE.


&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1245 PM EDT...LOTS OF CUMULUS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS MOST AREAS
DUE TO A STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATE SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. HOWEVER...THE 12Z ALY RAOB INDICATED A PRETTY IMPRESSIVE
MID LEVEL CAP (WARMING) IN THE SOUNDING SO CUMULUS SHOULD NOT GROW
TALL ENOUGH FOR THUNDER OR ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL. HOWEVER...IT IS
POSSIBLE A FEW SPRINKLES COULD FALL...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

FOR THIS UPDATE...INCLUDED A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. ADDED A FEW CLOUDS PER SATELLITE AND CANADIAN ASTRONOMICAL
CLOUD FORECAST DATA. HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK FINE GIVEN THE RAOB AND
UPPER AIR DATA.

SO FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...LOOK FOR A MIX OF CLOUDS AND
SUNSHINE...THAT SPRINKLE POSSIBILITY (RAINFALL TOO LIGHT TO MEASURE)
AND COOL BREEZE FROM THE NORTHWEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S IN THE VALLEYS...ONLY AROUND 70 ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...SO COOLER THAN NORMAL. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL COMFORTABLE
WITH DEWPOINTS HOLDING AROUND 50 DEGREES.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LARGE CLOSED LOW AS IT
WOBBLES OVER EASTERN CANADA AS SHORT WAVES WILL ROTATE ABOUT IT.
WITH THE HELP OF DAYTIME HEATING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR. THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE
WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY AFFECTING MORE OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A
STRONGER SHORT WAVE APPROACHES AND PASSES OVERHEAD.

DAYTIME HIGHS ARE ANTICIPATED TO FALL A BIT SHORT OF NORMAL FOR LATE
JULY. NIGHTTIME WILL BE ON THE COOLER SIDE RUNNING ABOUT 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT AND AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHEAST...AND STRONG RIDGING IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CONUS.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BE
WEAKENING...HOWEVER...ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS...COMBINED WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW AND DAYTIME HEATING...WILL BE ENOUGH TO CONTINUE A THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEKEND. THE
BEST CHANCE OF A SHOWER/TSTM WILL BE IN THE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS...THANKS TO HEATING. TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE...WITH HIGHS N THE
70S TO LOW 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EVEN
INTO MONDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
CONUS...EVEN THOUGH IT WON/T BE AS PRONOUNCED AND THE TROUGH WON/T
CERTAINLY BE AS SHARP IN AMPLITUDE. AS A RESULT...TEMPS WILL BE A
LITTLE WARMER THAN THE WEEKEND FOR MONDAY...WITH HIGHS IN VALLEY
AREAS REACHING WELL INTO THE 80S...BUT THE THREAT FOR AN
AFTN/EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS SITUATED JUST NORTH OF THE REGION OVER
CANADA. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS SYSTEM IS ALLOWING FOR SOME
PASSING CLOUDS...ESP IN UPSLOPE FAVORED LOCATIONS OF THE BERKSHIRES.
THIS IS CAUSING A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AT KPSF. HOWEVER...AS DRIER
AIR WORKS IN FROM THE WEST...THESE CLOUDS WILL START TO SCATTER
OUT...AND FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BECOME VFR FOR ALL TAF SITES BY MID
MORNING.

VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY
WITH JUST SCT DIURNAL FLAT CU. LIGHT WESTERLY SFC WINDS WILL BE
AROUND 5-10 KTS. THE CLOUDS WILL START TO MAINLY DISSIPATE FOR
TONIGHT...WITH JUST A FEW LINGERING CLOUDS AROUND 5-6 KFT...AND
WINDS BECOMING LIGHT TO CALM AT ALL SITES. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A
PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR FOG LATE TONIGHT AT KGFL/KPSF...OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY ALLOWING
HIGHER PRESSURE TO BUILD IN RESULTING IN A FAIR BUT COOL DAY.
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE LOW IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY DUE TO A
STRONGER DISTURBANCE.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40 TO 50
PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A
RECOVERY TO 80 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT IS EXPECTED FOR THE OVERNIGHTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY WHICH WILL ALLOW RIVER AND STREAM
LEVELS TO RECEDE. HOWEVER...THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED THIS
WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS LOW WILL WOBBLE
OVER EASTERN CANADA AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT. THE LOW WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND HOWEVER THE THREAT FOR
STORMS WILL CONTINUE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV/NAS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA









000
FXUS61 KALY 291648
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1245 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL BE A DRY AFTERNOON FEELING MORE LIKE EARLY SEPTEMBER THAN
LATE JULY.  DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE LOW
IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE NUMEROUS ON THURSDAY DUE TO A
STRONGER DISTURBANCE.


&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1245 PM EDT...LOTS OF CUMULUS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS MOST AREAS
DUE TO A STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATE SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. HOWEVER...THE 12Z ALY RAOB INDICATED A PRETTY IMPRESSIVE
MID LEVEL CAP (WARMING) IN THE SOUNDING SO CUMULUS SHOULD NOT GROW
TALL ENOUGH FOR THUNDER OR ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL. HOWEVER...IT IS
POSSIBLE A FEW SPRINKLES COULD FALL...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

FOR THIS UPDATE...INCLUDED A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. ADDED A FEW CLOUDS PER SATELLITE AND CANADIAN ASTRONOMICAL
CLOUD FORECAST DATA. HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK FINE GIVEN THE RAOB AND
UPPER AIR DATA.

SO FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...LOOK FOR A MIX OF CLOUDS AND
SUNSHINE...THAT SPRINKLE POSSIBILITY (RAINFALL TOO LIGHT TO MEASURE)
AND COOL BREEZE FROM THE NORTHWEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S IN THE VALLEYS...ONLY AROUND 70 ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...SO COOLER THAN NORMAL. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL COMFORTABLE
WITH DEWPOINTS HOLDING AROUND 50 DEGREES.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LARGE CLOSED LOW AS IT
WOBBLES OVER EASTERN CANADA AS SHORT WAVES WILL ROTATE ABOUT IT.
WITH THE HELP OF DAYTIME HEATING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR. THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE
WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY AFFECTING MORE OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A
STRONGER SHORT WAVE APPROACHES AND PASSES OVERHEAD.

DAYTIME HIGHS ARE ANTICIPATED TO FALL A BIT SHORT OF NORMAL FOR LATE
JULY. NIGHTTIME WILL BE ON THE COOLER SIDE RUNNING ABOUT 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT AND AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHEAST...AND STRONG RIDGING IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CONUS.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BE
WEAKENING...HOWEVER...ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS...COMBINED WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW AND DAYTIME HEATING...WILL BE ENOUGH TO CONTINUE A THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEKEND. THE
BEST CHANCE OF A SHOWER/TSTM WILL BE IN THE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS...THANKS TO HEATING. TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE...WITH HIGHS N THE
70S TO LOW 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EVEN
INTO MONDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
CONUS...EVEN THOUGH IT WON/T BE AS PRONOUNCED AND THE TROUGH WON/T
CERTAINLY BE AS SHARP IN AMPLITUDE. AS A RESULT...TEMPS WILL BE A
LITTLE WARMER THAN THE WEEKEND FOR MONDAY...WITH HIGHS IN VALLEY
AREAS REACHING WELL INTO THE 80S...BUT THE THREAT FOR AN
AFTN/EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS SITUATED JUST NORTH OF THE REGION OVER
CANADA. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS SYSTEM IS ALLOWING FOR SOME
PASSING CLOUDS...ESP IN UPSLOPE FAVORED LOCATIONS OF THE BERKSHIRES.
THIS IS CAUSING A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AT KPSF. HOWEVER...AS DRIER
AIR WORKS IN FROM THE WEST...THESE CLOUDS WILL START TO SCATTER
OUT...AND FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BECOME VFR FOR ALL TAF SITES BY MID
MORNING.

VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY
WITH JUST SCT DIURNAL FLAT CU. LIGHT WESTERLY SFC WINDS WILL BE
AROUND 5-10 KTS. THE CLOUDS WILL START TO MAINLY DISSIPATE FOR
TONIGHT...WITH JUST A FEW LINGERING CLOUDS AROUND 5-6 KFT...AND
WINDS BECOMING LIGHT TO CALM AT ALL SITES. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A
PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR FOG LATE TONIGHT AT KGFL/KPSF...OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY ALLOWING
HIGHER PRESSURE TO BUILD IN RESULTING IN A FAIR BUT COOL DAY.
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE LOW IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY DUE TO A
STRONGER DISTURBANCE.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40 TO 50
PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A
RECOVERY TO 80 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT IS EXPECTED FOR THE OVERNIGHTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY WHICH WILL ALLOW RIVER AND STREAM
LEVELS TO RECEDE. HOWEVER...THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED THIS
WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS LOW WILL WOBBLE
OVER EASTERN CANADA AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT. THE LOW WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND HOWEVER THE THREAT FOR
STORMS WILL CONTINUE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV/NAS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA










000
FXUS61 KBOX 291516
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1116 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY AND LESS HUMID WEATHER FOLLOWS TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A
COLD FRONT SWEEPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. A FEW
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE THU AND FRI...BUT
MOST OF THE TIME WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER.  A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN
IS POSSIBLE SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND IF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS CLOSE
ENOUGH TO THE COAST...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
***BEAUTIFUL WEATHER TODAY WITH PLEASANT TEMPS AND LOW HUMIDITY***

11 AM UPDATE...MADE A FEW MINOR UPDATES MAINLY TO SKY COVER
FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL
MASSACHUSETTS. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL RESULT IN
COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS ALONG WITH LOW HUMIDITY TODAY. UNDER A
MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE...HIGH TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...

A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE FOR LATE JULY WILL COMBINE WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES/LIGHT WINDS...RESULTING IN AN EXCELLENT NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING.  LOW TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 50S...TO THE LOWER 60S IN
THE URBAN HEAT ISLANDS OF BOSTON/PROVIDENCE.  WE MAY EVEN SEE A FEW
UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORMALLY COOLEST OUTLYING LOCATIONS OF
SOUTHWEST NH/WESTERN MA!  SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE IN
THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS...BUT NOTHING WIDESPREAD IS
ANTICIPATED.

WEDNESDAY...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.  THIS
WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.  HIGHS SHOULD
MAINLY BE IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 WITH LOW HUMIDITY.  A MIXTURE OF
CLOUDS AND SUN ANTICIPATED AS A MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION.  MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED...BUT THE SHORTWAVE
COULD RESULT IN A PASSING SPRINKLE OR TWO.  WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH A
WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING EAST OF THE BENCHMARK...BUT AT
THIS TIME APPEARS IT SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO SPARE EVEN THE
CAPE/ISLANDS ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY OTHERWISE QUIET WEATHER
* LOW PRES COULD BRING RAIN ESPECIALLY TO THE SOUTH COAST SAT

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM.  THERE
ARE DETAIL DIFFERENCES OF COURSE BUT OVERALL THE SYNOPTIC SCALE
PATTERN IS WELL MODELED.  THE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. IS THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF THE LONG TERM.  THE TROUGH IS FAR ENOUGH EAST THAT MOISTURE
IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW SHOWERS ON THURSDAY WITH A SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE
TROUGH.  OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY QUIET AND SEASONABLE WEATHER
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

THE TROUGH AXIS STARTS TO SHIFT MORE TO THE WEST THIS WEEKEND...ALLOWING
MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. A FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE
FRONT. THIS WILL BRING STEADY RAIN TO AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE
REGION. THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE MODELS AS TO HOW CLOSE
THIS FRONT GETS TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE CLOSER THE FRONT
COMES TO THE AREA...THE MORE WIDESPREAD THE RAIN. MODEL BLEND
CURRENTLY BRINGS THE PRECIP INTO SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND
RHODE ISLAND.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR CONDITIONS OTHER THAN
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.  AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. TIMING OF SEA BREEZE MAY BE A
LITTLE OFF. THINKING SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS NO LATER THAN 18Z.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR. LOW
PROBABILITY OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN -SHRA.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  VFR NW.  MVFR CONDITIONS MORE
PROBABLE SE IN -SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LEFTOVER SWELL WILL ALLOW SCA SEAS TO
LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS AND
WESTERN SOUNDS. OTHERWISE...WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
LEVELS ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION.

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  ANY LEFT OVER MARGINAL SCA
SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...FINE BOATING WEATHER AS WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP
WINDS/SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS ALONG WITH GOOD VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  QUIET BOATING
WEATHER EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS.

SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.  MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE WITH AN
APPROACHING FRONT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ235-237.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK
NEAR TERM...BELK/FRANK/RLG
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...FRANK/RLG
MARINE...FRANK/RLG



000
FXUS61 KBOX 291516
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1116 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY AND LESS HUMID WEATHER FOLLOWS TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A
COLD FRONT SWEEPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. A FEW
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE THU AND FRI...BUT
MOST OF THE TIME WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER.  A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN
IS POSSIBLE SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND IF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS CLOSE
ENOUGH TO THE COAST...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
***BEAUTIFUL WEATHER TODAY WITH PLEASANT TEMPS AND LOW HUMIDITY***

11 AM UPDATE...MADE A FEW MINOR UPDATES MAINLY TO SKY COVER
FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL
MASSACHUSETTS. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL RESULT IN
COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS ALONG WITH LOW HUMIDITY TODAY. UNDER A
MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE...HIGH TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...

A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE FOR LATE JULY WILL COMBINE WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES/LIGHT WINDS...RESULTING IN AN EXCELLENT NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING.  LOW TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 50S...TO THE LOWER 60S IN
THE URBAN HEAT ISLANDS OF BOSTON/PROVIDENCE.  WE MAY EVEN SEE A FEW
UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORMALLY COOLEST OUTLYING LOCATIONS OF
SOUTHWEST NH/WESTERN MA!  SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE IN
THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS...BUT NOTHING WIDESPREAD IS
ANTICIPATED.

WEDNESDAY...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.  THIS
WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.  HIGHS SHOULD
MAINLY BE IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 WITH LOW HUMIDITY.  A MIXTURE OF
CLOUDS AND SUN ANTICIPATED AS A MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION.  MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED...BUT THE SHORTWAVE
COULD RESULT IN A PASSING SPRINKLE OR TWO.  WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH A
WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING EAST OF THE BENCHMARK...BUT AT
THIS TIME APPEARS IT SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO SPARE EVEN THE
CAPE/ISLANDS ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY OTHERWISE QUIET WEATHER
* LOW PRES COULD BRING RAIN ESPECIALLY TO THE SOUTH COAST SAT

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM.  THERE
ARE DETAIL DIFFERENCES OF COURSE BUT OVERALL THE SYNOPTIC SCALE
PATTERN IS WELL MODELED.  THE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. IS THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF THE LONG TERM.  THE TROUGH IS FAR ENOUGH EAST THAT MOISTURE
IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW SHOWERS ON THURSDAY WITH A SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE
TROUGH.  OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY QUIET AND SEASONABLE WEATHER
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

THE TROUGH AXIS STARTS TO SHIFT MORE TO THE WEST THIS WEEKEND...ALLOWING
MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. A FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE
FRONT. THIS WILL BRING STEADY RAIN TO AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE
REGION. THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE MODELS AS TO HOW CLOSE
THIS FRONT GETS TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE CLOSER THE FRONT
COMES TO THE AREA...THE MORE WIDESPREAD THE RAIN. MODEL BLEND
CURRENTLY BRINGS THE PRECIP INTO SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND
RHODE ISLAND.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR CONDITIONS OTHER THAN
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.  AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. TIMING OF SEA BREEZE MAY BE A
LITTLE OFF. THINKING SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS NO LATER THAN 18Z.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR. LOW
PROBABILITY OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN -SHRA.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  VFR NW.  MVFR CONDITIONS MORE
PROBABLE SE IN -SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LEFTOVER SWELL WILL ALLOW SCA SEAS TO
LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS AND
WESTERN SOUNDS. OTHERWISE...WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
LEVELS ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION.

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  ANY LEFT OVER MARGINAL SCA
SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...FINE BOATING WEATHER AS WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP
WINDS/SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS ALONG WITH GOOD VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  QUIET BOATING
WEATHER EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS.

SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.  MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE WITH AN
APPROACHING FRONT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ235-237.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK
NEAR TERM...BELK/FRANK/RLG
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...FRANK/RLG
MARINE...FRANK/RLG




000
FXUS61 KOKX 291448
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1048 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN REMAIN JUST OFF THE COAST FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES PASS ACROSS. A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WITH MULTIPLE
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG IT WILL BE NEAR BY OR JUST
OFFSHORE FROM THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

DRY AIRMASS BUILDS IN TODAY...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS ONLY
AROUND 60 PERCENT OF NORMAL. OTHERWISE...THERE WOULD BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR A FEW TSTMS WITH LOW HEIGHTS AND JULY SUN...SO HAVE
KEPT THE DRY FORECAST GOING. TEMPERATURES WILL HIT THE CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURE THIS AFTERNOON...SO EXPECT MAINLY SCT CUMULUS FOR THE
AFTERNOON - WITH RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVELS A LIMITING FACTOR.

THE FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS BEGIN TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT...BUT LINGERING
MOISTURE COULD END UP TRAPPED IN A MID LEVEL INVERSION THE 4-7000 FT
RANGE...SO DID NOT GO WITH A CLEAR FORECAST TONIGHT.

TEMPERATURES TODAY CLOSE TO GMOS AND TONIGHT CLOSER TO MET GUIDANCE.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE METEOROLOGICAL ENHANCEMENT OF RIP
CURRENTS TODAY AT AREA OCEAN BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS PUT OUT SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIPITATION WED...BUT THE TIME HEIGHTS
INDICATE GENERAL SUBSIDENCE WHICH WOULD TEND TO LIMIT VERTICAL
DEVELOPMENT AND INHIBIT ANY TRIGGER. AS A RESULT HAVE ONLY
INCLUDED ISOLD SPRINKLES ACROSS THE INTERIOR. INCREASING MOISTURE
APPEARS TO COME IN TOO LATE TO COINCIDE WITH PEAK HEATING TO HAVE
ANY SUBSTANTIAL INFLUENCE ON INSTABILITY AT THIS TIME. CLOUD COVER
ADJUSTED UPWARD TO SCT-BKN WITH TEMPS AGAIN ABOVE CONVECTIVE. TEMPS
CLOSE TO GMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A CLOSED LOW OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC WILL DOMINATE FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK. A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PIVOTING AROUND THIS
LOW COULD TRIGGER AN ISOLD LATE DAY SHOWER ACROSS THE INTERIOR ON
THU. COULD ALSO SEE SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS AGAIN FRI AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING WITH ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE AND GREATER INSTABILITY.

AS THE CANADIAN CLOSED LOW WEAKENS OVER THE WEEKEND...A PORTION WILL
DROP INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY...WHILE AN UPPER HIGH
STRENGTHENS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE STRENGTHENING UPPER HIGH
WILL PUSH AN OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE BACK TOWARD THE COAST...WHILE THE
INLAND TROUGH INDUCES WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG IT AND/OR
TRIGGERS SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION. ECMWF AND GGEM ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH THIS SCENARIO THAN THE GFS...BUT DIFFER ON TIMING. AT THIS TIME DECIDED
TO INCORPORATE ASPECTS OF BOTH INTO THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME
WITH SOME DIURNAL FLUCTUATION...WITH CHANCE POP SAT INTO SAT EVENING
AND AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

THE TROUGH TO THE WEST IS FCST TO BEGIN SHEARING OUT TO THE NE LATE
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...KICKING THE OFFSHORE FRONTAL
ZONE TO THE EAST. AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES AND INTERACTS WITH A
TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS...COULD SEE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS/TSTMS MON AFTERNOON/EVENING.

TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR AVG THU-FRI...THEN A LITTLE BELOW AVG THIS
WEEKEND VIA CLOUD COVER AND GREATER POP...THEN RETURNING TO NEAR AVG
ON MON.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL FOR TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO PREVIOUS TAF PACKAGE. ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON LATEST OBS.

OTHERWISE...VFR. W-NW FLOW AT 10 KT OR LESS WILL BACK TO THE W-SW
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SEA BREEZES LIKELY FOR COASTAL TERMINALS.

..NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE TIMING COULD BE OFF BY AN HOUR IN
EITHER DIRECTION.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE IF SEA BREEZE DOES NOT
ARRIVE AS QUICKLY AS FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR SEA BREEZE TIMING
AND DIRECTION...WINDS COULD GO MORE SOUTHERLY THAN FORECAST.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE TIMING MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR IN
EITHER DIRECTION.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WEDNESDAY...VFR.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM KBDR TO KFRG.
VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

SEAS DOWN TO 4.6 FT AT 44017 AND WOULD EXPECT TO CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY FALL...SO HAVE DROPPED THE SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WHICH
EXPIRES AT 11 AM.

WIND AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE WATERS.

CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN QUIET WED NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT. SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN TO APPROACH SCA LEVELS DEPENDING ON POSITION
OF AN OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE AND TIMING OF ANY ASSOCIATED WEAK WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRI. PARTS OF THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST...HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN THIS WEEKEND...DEPENDING ON THE POSITION OF AN OFFSHORE
FRONTAL ZONE AND TIMING OF ANY ASSOCIATED WEAK WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE. THIS POTENTIAL IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY...SO IT IS TOO
EARLY TO OFFER SPECIFIC FORECAST DETAILS OR TO MENTION IN HWO.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...MALOIT/JMC/GOODMAN
HYDROLOGY...JMC/GOODMAN





000
FXUS61 KOKX 291448
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1048 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN REMAIN JUST OFF THE COAST FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES PASS ACROSS. A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WITH MULTIPLE
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG IT WILL BE NEAR BY OR JUST
OFFSHORE FROM THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

DRY AIRMASS BUILDS IN TODAY...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS ONLY
AROUND 60 PERCENT OF NORMAL. OTHERWISE...THERE WOULD BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR A FEW TSTMS WITH LOW HEIGHTS AND JULY SUN...SO HAVE
KEPT THE DRY FORECAST GOING. TEMPERATURES WILL HIT THE CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURE THIS AFTERNOON...SO EXPECT MAINLY SCT CUMULUS FOR THE
AFTERNOON - WITH RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVELS A LIMITING FACTOR.

THE FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS BEGIN TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT...BUT LINGERING
MOISTURE COULD END UP TRAPPED IN A MID LEVEL INVERSION THE 4-7000 FT
RANGE...SO DID NOT GO WITH A CLEAR FORECAST TONIGHT.

TEMPERATURES TODAY CLOSE TO GMOS AND TONIGHT CLOSER TO MET GUIDANCE.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE METEOROLOGICAL ENHANCEMENT OF RIP
CURRENTS TODAY AT AREA OCEAN BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS PUT OUT SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIPITATION WED...BUT THE TIME HEIGHTS
INDICATE GENERAL SUBSIDENCE WHICH WOULD TEND TO LIMIT VERTICAL
DEVELOPMENT AND INHIBIT ANY TRIGGER. AS A RESULT HAVE ONLY
INCLUDED ISOLD SPRINKLES ACROSS THE INTERIOR. INCREASING MOISTURE
APPEARS TO COME IN TOO LATE TO COINCIDE WITH PEAK HEATING TO HAVE
ANY SUBSTANTIAL INFLUENCE ON INSTABILITY AT THIS TIME. CLOUD COVER
ADJUSTED UPWARD TO SCT-BKN WITH TEMPS AGAIN ABOVE CONVECTIVE. TEMPS
CLOSE TO GMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A CLOSED LOW OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC WILL DOMINATE FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK. A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PIVOTING AROUND THIS
LOW COULD TRIGGER AN ISOLD LATE DAY SHOWER ACROSS THE INTERIOR ON
THU. COULD ALSO SEE SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS AGAIN FRI AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING WITH ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE AND GREATER INSTABILITY.

AS THE CANADIAN CLOSED LOW WEAKENS OVER THE WEEKEND...A PORTION WILL
DROP INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY...WHILE AN UPPER HIGH
STRENGTHENS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE STRENGTHENING UPPER HIGH
WILL PUSH AN OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE BACK TOWARD THE COAST...WHILE THE
INLAND TROUGH INDUCES WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG IT AND/OR
TRIGGERS SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION. ECMWF AND GGEM ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH THIS SCENARIO THAN THE GFS...BUT DIFFER ON TIMING. AT THIS TIME DECIDED
TO INCORPORATE ASPECTS OF BOTH INTO THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME
WITH SOME DIURNAL FLUCTUATION...WITH CHANCE POP SAT INTO SAT EVENING
AND AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

THE TROUGH TO THE WEST IS FCST TO BEGIN SHEARING OUT TO THE NE LATE
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...KICKING THE OFFSHORE FRONTAL
ZONE TO THE EAST. AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES AND INTERACTS WITH A
TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS...COULD SEE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS/TSTMS MON AFTERNOON/EVENING.

TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR AVG THU-FRI...THEN A LITTLE BELOW AVG THIS
WEEKEND VIA CLOUD COVER AND GREATER POP...THEN RETURNING TO NEAR AVG
ON MON.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL FOR TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO PREVIOUS TAF PACKAGE. ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON LATEST OBS.

OTHERWISE...VFR. W-NW FLOW AT 10 KT OR LESS WILL BACK TO THE W-SW
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SEA BREEZES LIKELY FOR COASTAL TERMINALS.

..NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE TIMING COULD BE OFF BY AN HOUR IN
EITHER DIRECTION.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE IF SEA BREEZE DOES NOT
ARRIVE AS QUICKLY AS FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR SEA BREEZE TIMING
AND DIRECTION...WINDS COULD GO MORE SOUTHERLY THAN FORECAST.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE TIMING MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR IN
EITHER DIRECTION.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WEDNESDAY...VFR.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM KBDR TO KFRG.
VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

SEAS DOWN TO 4.6 FT AT 44017 AND WOULD EXPECT TO CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY FALL...SO HAVE DROPPED THE SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WHICH
EXPIRES AT 11 AM.

WIND AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE WATERS.

CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN QUIET WED NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT. SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN TO APPROACH SCA LEVELS DEPENDING ON POSITION
OF AN OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE AND TIMING OF ANY ASSOCIATED WEAK WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRI. PARTS OF THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST...HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN THIS WEEKEND...DEPENDING ON THE POSITION OF AN OFFSHORE
FRONTAL ZONE AND TIMING OF ANY ASSOCIATED WEAK WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE. THIS POTENTIAL IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY...SO IT IS TOO
EARLY TO OFFER SPECIFIC FORECAST DETAILS OR TO MENTION IN HWO.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...MALOIT/JMC/GOODMAN
HYDROLOGY...JMC/GOODMAN




000
FXUS61 KALY 291422
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1006 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION RESULTING IN A FAIR
BUT COOL DAY. DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE
LOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE
WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY DUE TO A STRONGER DISTURBANCE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SOME FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO FORM...AND MOST OF THE
CLOUDS SHOULD AFFECT AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN. SO...WITH SUNSHINE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...DECENT MIXING EVEN AS WE ADVECT COOLER
AIR AT LOW LEVELS. BASED ON AREA 12Z SOUNDINGS AND CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS...FEW CHANGES IF ANY TO THE FORECAST
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE 70S...BUT SOME 60S IN HIGHER
TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LARGE CLOSED LOW AS IT
WOBBLES OVER EASTERN CANADA AS SHORT WAVES WILL ROTATE ABOUT IT.
WITH THE HELP OF DAYTIME HEATING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR. THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE
WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY AFFECTING MORE OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A
STRONGER SHORT WAVE APPROACHES AND PASSES OVERHEAD.

DAYTIME HIGHS ARE ANTICIPATED TO FALL A BIT SHORT OF NORMAL FOR LATE
JULY. NIGHTTIME WILL BE ON THE COOLER SIDE RUNNING ABOUT 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT AND AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHEAST...AND STRONG RIDGING IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CONUS.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BE
WEAKENING...HOWEVER...ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS...COMBINED WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW AND DAYTIME HEATING...WILL BE ENOUGH TO CONTINUE A THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEKEND. THE
BEST CHANCE OF A SHOWER/TSTM WILL BE IN THE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS...THANKS TO HEATING. TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE...WITH HIGHS N THE
70S TO LOW 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EVEN
INTO MONDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
CONUS...EVEN THOUGH IT WON/T BE AS PRONOUNCED AND THE TROUGH WON/T
CERTAINLY BE AS SHARP IN AMPLITUDE. AS A RESULT...TEMPS WILL BE A
LITTLE WARMER THAN THE WEEKEND FOR MONDAY...WITH HIGHS IN VALLEY
AREAS REACHING WELL INTO THE 80S...BUT THE THREAT FOR AN
AFTN/EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS SITUATED JUST NORTH OF THE REGION OVER
CANADA. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS SYSTEM IS ALLOWING FOR SOME
PASSING CLOUDS...ESP IN UPSLOPE FAVORED LOCATIONS OF THE BERKSHIRES.
THIS IS CAUSING A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AT KPSF. HOWEVER...AS DRIER
AIR WORKS IN FROM THE WEST...THESE CLOUDS WILL START TO SCATTER
OUT...AND FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BECOME VFR FOR ALL TAF SITES BY MID
MORNING.

VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY
WITH JUST SCT DIURNAL FLAT CU. LIGHT WESTERLY SFC WINDS WILL BE
AROUND 5-10 KTS. THE CLOUDS WILL START TO MAINLY DISSIPATE FOR
TONIGHT...WITH JUST A FEW LINGERING CLOUDS AROUND 5-6 KFT...AND
WINDS BECOMING LIGHT TO CALM AT ALL SITES. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A
PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR FOG LATE TONIGHT AT KGFL/KPSF...OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY ALLOWING
HIGHER PRESSURE TO BUILD IN RESULTING IN A FAIR BUT COOL DAY.
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE LOW IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY DUE TO A
STRONGER DISTURBANCE.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40 TO 50
PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A
RECOVERY TO 80 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT IS EXPECTED FOR THE OVERNIGHTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY WHICH WILL ALLOW RIVER AND STREAM
LEVELS TO RECEDE. HOWEVER...THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED THIS
WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS LOW WILL WOBBLE
OVER EASTERN CANADA AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT. THE LOW WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND HOWEVER THE THREAT FOR
STORMS WILL CONTINUE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/NAS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA











000
FXUS61 KALY 291422
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1006 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION RESULTING IN A FAIR
BUT COOL DAY. DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE
LOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE
WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY DUE TO A STRONGER DISTURBANCE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SOME FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO FORM...AND MOST OF THE
CLOUDS SHOULD AFFECT AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN. SO...WITH SUNSHINE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...DECENT MIXING EVEN AS WE ADVECT COOLER
AIR AT LOW LEVELS. BASED ON AREA 12Z SOUNDINGS AND CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS...FEW CHANGES IF ANY TO THE FORECAST
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE 70S...BUT SOME 60S IN HIGHER
TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LARGE CLOSED LOW AS IT
WOBBLES OVER EASTERN CANADA AS SHORT WAVES WILL ROTATE ABOUT IT.
WITH THE HELP OF DAYTIME HEATING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR. THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE
WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY AFFECTING MORE OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A
STRONGER SHORT WAVE APPROACHES AND PASSES OVERHEAD.

DAYTIME HIGHS ARE ANTICIPATED TO FALL A BIT SHORT OF NORMAL FOR LATE
JULY. NIGHTTIME WILL BE ON THE COOLER SIDE RUNNING ABOUT 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT AND AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHEAST...AND STRONG RIDGING IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CONUS.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BE
WEAKENING...HOWEVER...ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS...COMBINED WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW AND DAYTIME HEATING...WILL BE ENOUGH TO CONTINUE A THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEKEND. THE
BEST CHANCE OF A SHOWER/TSTM WILL BE IN THE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS...THANKS TO HEATING. TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE...WITH HIGHS N THE
70S TO LOW 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EVEN
INTO MONDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
CONUS...EVEN THOUGH IT WON/T BE AS PRONOUNCED AND THE TROUGH WON/T
CERTAINLY BE AS SHARP IN AMPLITUDE. AS A RESULT...TEMPS WILL BE A
LITTLE WARMER THAN THE WEEKEND FOR MONDAY...WITH HIGHS IN VALLEY
AREAS REACHING WELL INTO THE 80S...BUT THE THREAT FOR AN
AFTN/EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS SITUATED JUST NORTH OF THE REGION OVER
CANADA. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS SYSTEM IS ALLOWING FOR SOME
PASSING CLOUDS...ESP IN UPSLOPE FAVORED LOCATIONS OF THE BERKSHIRES.
THIS IS CAUSING A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AT KPSF. HOWEVER...AS DRIER
AIR WORKS IN FROM THE WEST...THESE CLOUDS WILL START TO SCATTER
OUT...AND FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BECOME VFR FOR ALL TAF SITES BY MID
MORNING.

VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY
WITH JUST SCT DIURNAL FLAT CU. LIGHT WESTERLY SFC WINDS WILL BE
AROUND 5-10 KTS. THE CLOUDS WILL START TO MAINLY DISSIPATE FOR
TONIGHT...WITH JUST A FEW LINGERING CLOUDS AROUND 5-6 KFT...AND
WINDS BECOMING LIGHT TO CALM AT ALL SITES. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A
PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR FOG LATE TONIGHT AT KGFL/KPSF...OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY ALLOWING
HIGHER PRESSURE TO BUILD IN RESULTING IN A FAIR BUT COOL DAY.
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE LOW IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY DUE TO A
STRONGER DISTURBANCE.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40 TO 50
PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A
RECOVERY TO 80 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT IS EXPECTED FOR THE OVERNIGHTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY WHICH WILL ALLOW RIVER AND STREAM
LEVELS TO RECEDE. HOWEVER...THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED THIS
WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS LOW WILL WOBBLE
OVER EASTERN CANADA AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT. THE LOW WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND HOWEVER THE THREAT FOR
STORMS WILL CONTINUE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/NAS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA










000
FXUS61 KALY 291406
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1006 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION RESULTING IN A FAIR
BUT COOL DAY. DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE
LOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE
WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY DUE TO A STRONGER DISTURBANCE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SOME FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO FORM...AND MOST OF THE
CLOUDS SHOULD AFFECT AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN. SO...WITH SUNSHINE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...DECENT MIXING EVEN AS WE ADVECT COOLER
AIR AT LOW LEVELS. BASED ON AREA 12Z SOUNDINGS AND CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS...FEW CHANGES IF ANY TO THE FORECAST
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE 70S...BUT SOME 60S IN HIGHER
TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LARGE CLOSED LOW AS IT
WOBBLES OVER EASTERN CANADA AS SHORT WAVES WILL ROTATE ABOUT IT.
WITH THE HELP OF DAYTIME HEATING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR. THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE
WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY AFFECTING MORE OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A
STRONGER SHORT WAVE APPROACHES AND PASSES OVERHEAD.

DAYTIME HIGHS ARE ANTICIPATED TO FALL A BIT SHORT OF NORMAL FOR LATE
JULY. NIGHTTIME WILL BE ON THE COOLER SIDE RUNNING ABOUT 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT AND AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHEAST...AND STRONG RIDGING IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CONUS.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BE
WEAKENING...HOWEVER...ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS...COMBINED WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW AND DAYTIME HEATING...WILL BE ENOUGH TO CONTINUE A THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEKEND. THE
BEST CHANCE OF A SHOWER/TSTM WILL BE IN THE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS...THANKS TO HEATING. TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE...WITH HIGHS N THE
70S TO LOW 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EVEN
INTO MONDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
CONUS...EVEN THOUGH IT WON/T BE AS PRONOUNCED AND THE TROUGH WON/T
CERTAINLY BE AS SHARP IN AMPLITUDE. AS A RESULT...TEMPS WILL BE A
LITTLE WARMER THAN THE WEEKEND FOR MONDAY...WITH HIGHS IN VALLEY
AREAS REACHING WELL INTO THE 80S...BUT THE THREAT FOR AN
AFTN/EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS SITUATED JUST NORTH OF THE REGION OVER
CANADA. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS SYSTEM IS ALLOWING FOR SOME
PASSING CLOUDS...ESP IN UPSLOPE FAVORED LOCATIONS OF THE BERKSHIRES.
THIS IS CAUSING A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AT KPSF. HOWEVER...AS DRIER
AIR WORKS IN FROM THE WEST...THESE CLOUDS WILL START TO SCATTER
OUT...AND FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BECOME VFR FOR ALL TAF SITES BY MID
MORNING.

VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY
WITH JUST SCT DIURNAL FLAT CU. LIGHT WESTERLY SFC WINDS WILL BE
AROUND 5-10 KTS. THE CLOUDS WILL START TO MAINLY DISSIPATE FOR
TONIGHT...WITH JUST A FEW LINGERING CLOUDS AROUND 5-6 KFT...AND
WINDS BECOMING LIGHT TO CALM AT ALL SITES. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A
PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR FOG LATE TONIGHT AT KGFL/KPSF...OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY ALLOWING
HIGHER PRESSURE TO BUILD IN RESULTING IN A FAIR BUT COOL DAY.
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE LOW IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY DUE TO A
STRONGER DISTURBANCE.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40 TO 50
PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A
RECOVERY TO 80 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT IS EXPECTED FOR THE OVERNIGHTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY WHICH WILL ALLOW RIVER AND STREAM
LEVELS TO RECEDE. HOWEVER...THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED THIS
WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS LOW WILL WOBBLE
OVER EASTERN CANADA AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT. THE LOW WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND HOWEVER THE THREAT FOR
STORMS WILL CONTINUE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/NAS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA







000
FXUS61 KALY 291406
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1006 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION RESULTING IN A FAIR
BUT COOL DAY. DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE
LOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE
WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY DUE TO A STRONGER DISTURBANCE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SOME FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO FORM...AND MOST OF THE
CLOUDS SHOULD AFFECT AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN. SO...WITH SUNSHINE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...DECENT MIXING EVEN AS WE ADVECT COOLER
AIR AT LOW LEVELS. BASED ON AREA 12Z SOUNDINGS AND CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS...FEW CHANGES IF ANY TO THE FORECAST
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE 70S...BUT SOME 60S IN HIGHER
TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LARGE CLOSED LOW AS IT
WOBBLES OVER EASTERN CANADA AS SHORT WAVES WILL ROTATE ABOUT IT.
WITH THE HELP OF DAYTIME HEATING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR. THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE
WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY AFFECTING MORE OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A
STRONGER SHORT WAVE APPROACHES AND PASSES OVERHEAD.

DAYTIME HIGHS ARE ANTICIPATED TO FALL A BIT SHORT OF NORMAL FOR LATE
JULY. NIGHTTIME WILL BE ON THE COOLER SIDE RUNNING ABOUT 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT AND AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHEAST...AND STRONG RIDGING IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CONUS.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BE
WEAKENING...HOWEVER...ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS...COMBINED WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW AND DAYTIME HEATING...WILL BE ENOUGH TO CONTINUE A THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEKEND. THE
BEST CHANCE OF A SHOWER/TSTM WILL BE IN THE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS...THANKS TO HEATING. TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE...WITH HIGHS N THE
70S TO LOW 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EVEN
INTO MONDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
CONUS...EVEN THOUGH IT WON/T BE AS PRONOUNCED AND THE TROUGH WON/T
CERTAINLY BE AS SHARP IN AMPLITUDE. AS A RESULT...TEMPS WILL BE A
LITTLE WARMER THAN THE WEEKEND FOR MONDAY...WITH HIGHS IN VALLEY
AREAS REACHING WELL INTO THE 80S...BUT THE THREAT FOR AN
AFTN/EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS SITUATED JUST NORTH OF THE REGION OVER
CANADA. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS SYSTEM IS ALLOWING FOR SOME
PASSING CLOUDS...ESP IN UPSLOPE FAVORED LOCATIONS OF THE BERKSHIRES.
THIS IS CAUSING A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AT KPSF. HOWEVER...AS DRIER
AIR WORKS IN FROM THE WEST...THESE CLOUDS WILL START TO SCATTER
OUT...AND FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BECOME VFR FOR ALL TAF SITES BY MID
MORNING.

VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY
WITH JUST SCT DIURNAL FLAT CU. LIGHT WESTERLY SFC WINDS WILL BE
AROUND 5-10 KTS. THE CLOUDS WILL START TO MAINLY DISSIPATE FOR
TONIGHT...WITH JUST A FEW LINGERING CLOUDS AROUND 5-6 KFT...AND
WINDS BECOMING LIGHT TO CALM AT ALL SITES. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A
PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR FOG LATE TONIGHT AT KGFL/KPSF...OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY ALLOWING
HIGHER PRESSURE TO BUILD IN RESULTING IN A FAIR BUT COOL DAY.
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE LOW IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY DUE TO A
STRONGER DISTURBANCE.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40 TO 50
PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A
RECOVERY TO 80 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT IS EXPECTED FOR THE OVERNIGHTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY WHICH WILL ALLOW RIVER AND STREAM
LEVELS TO RECEDE. HOWEVER...THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED THIS
WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS LOW WILL WOBBLE
OVER EASTERN CANADA AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT. THE LOW WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND HOWEVER THE THREAT FOR
STORMS WILL CONTINUE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/NAS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA








000
FXUS61 KOKX 291132
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
732 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE JUST OFF THE
COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES PASS ACROSS. A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
WAVES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND ALONG THE
COAST...AND REMAIN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DRY AIRMASS BUILDS IN TODAY...OTHERWISE THERE WOULD BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR A FEW TSTMS WITH LOW HEIGHTS AND JULY SUN. PW/S
ONLY AROUND 60 PERCENT OF NORMAL...SO HAVE KEPT THE DRY FCST
GOING. TEMPS WILL HIT CONVECTIVE SO SCT TO OCNL BKN CU FOR THE
AFTN.

THE FAIR WX CLOUDS BEGIN TO DISSIPATE TNGT...BUT LINGERING
MOISTURE COULD END UP TRAPPED IN THE 4-7K FT RANGE.

TEMPS TODAY CLOSE TO GMOS AND TNGT CLOSER TO THE MET.

MDT RISK FOR RIPS TODAY ON THE OCEAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS PUT OUT SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PCPN WED...BUT THE TIME HEIGHTS
INDICATE GENERAL SUBSIDENCE WHICH WOULD TEND TO LIMIT VERTICAL
DEVELOPMENT AND INHIBIT ANY TRIGGER. AS A RESULT HAVE ONLY
INCLUDED ISOLD SPRINKLES ACROSS THE INTERIOR. INCREASING MOISTURE
APPEARS TO COME IN TOO LATE TO COINCIDE WITH PEAK HEATING TO HAVE
ANY SUBSTANTIAL INFLUENCE ON INSTABILITY ATTM. CLOUD COVER
ADJUSTED UPWARD TO SCT-BKN WITH TEMPS AGAIN ABV CONVECTIVE. TEMPS
CLOSE TO GMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A CLOSED LOW OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC WILL DOMINATE FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK. A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PIVOTING AROUND THIS
LOW COULD TRIGGER AN ISOLD LATE DAY SHOWER ACROSS THE INTERIOR ON
THU. COULD ALSO SEE SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS AGAIN FRI AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING WITH ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE AND GREATER INSTABILITY.

AS THE CANADIAN CLOSED LOW WEAKENS OVER THE WEEKEND...A PORTION WILL
DROP INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY...WHILE AN UPPER HIGH
STRENGTHENS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE STRENGTHENING UPPER HIGH
WILL PUSH AN OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE BACK TOWARD THE COAST...WHILE THE
INLAND TROUGH INDUCES WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG IT AND/OR
TRIGGERS SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION. ECMWF AND GGEM ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH THIS SCENARIO THAN THE GFS...BUT DIFFER ON TIMING. ATTM DECIDED
TO INCORPORATE ASPECTS OF BOTH INTO THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME
WITH SOME DIURNAL FLUCTUATION...WITH CHANCE POP SAT INTO SAT EVENING
AND AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

THE TROUGH TO THE WEST IS FCST TO BEGIN SHEARING OUT TO THE NE LATE
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...KICKING THE OFFSHORE FRONTAL
ZONE TO THE EAST. AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES AND INTERACTS WITH A
TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS...COULD SEE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS/TSTMS MON AFTERNOON/EVENING.

TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR AVG THU-FRI...THEN A LITTLE BELOW AVG THIS
WEEKEND VIA CLOUD COVER AND GREATER POP...THEN RETURNING TO NEAR AVG
ON MON.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL FOR TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.

VFR. LIGHT WINDS TODAY WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES PROBABLE FOR
COASTAL TERMINALS.

..NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE TIMING COULD BE OFF BY AN HOUR IN
EITHER DIRECTION.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE IF SEA BREEZE DOES NOT
MAKE IT AS QUICKLY AS FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR SEA BREEZE TIMING
AND DIRECTION...WINDS COULD GO MORE SOUTHERLY THAN FORECAST.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE TIMING MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR IN
EITHER DIRECTION.


.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WEDNESDAY...VFR.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM KBDR TO KFRG.
VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS/TSTORMS.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TODAY. WAVES HAVE BEEN
DECREASED BY 1/2 FT FROM WAVEWATCH ON THE OCEAN. RETAINED THE SCA
EXPIRATION TIMING OF 11 AM BASED ON THIS FCST DATA AS WELL AS
CURRENT TRENDS. WIND AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS TNGT AND WED WITH
HIPRES BUILDING OVER THE WATERS.

CONDS SHOULD REMAIN QUIET WED NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT. SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR CONDS ON THE OCEAN TO APPROACH SCA LEVELS DEPENDING ON POSITION
OF AN OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE AND TIMING OF ANY ASSOCIATED WEAK WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN IS EXPECTED THRU FRI. PARTS OF THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST...HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN THIS WEEKEND...DEPENDING ON THE POSITION OF AN OFFSHORE
FRONTAL ZONE AND TIMING OF ANY ASSOCIATED WEAK WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE. THIS POTENTIAL IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY...SO IT IS TOO
EARLY TO OFFER SPECIFIC FORECAST DETAILS OR TO MENTION IN HWO.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ350-
     353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...LN
MARINE...JMC/GOODMAN
HYDROLOGY...JMC/GOODMAN








000
FXUS61 KOKX 291132
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
732 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE JUST OFF THE
COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES PASS ACROSS. A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
WAVES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND ALONG THE
COAST...AND REMAIN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DRY AIRMASS BUILDS IN TODAY...OTHERWISE THERE WOULD BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR A FEW TSTMS WITH LOW HEIGHTS AND JULY SUN. PW/S
ONLY AROUND 60 PERCENT OF NORMAL...SO HAVE KEPT THE DRY FCST
GOING. TEMPS WILL HIT CONVECTIVE SO SCT TO OCNL BKN CU FOR THE
AFTN.

THE FAIR WX CLOUDS BEGIN TO DISSIPATE TNGT...BUT LINGERING
MOISTURE COULD END UP TRAPPED IN THE 4-7K FT RANGE.

TEMPS TODAY CLOSE TO GMOS AND TNGT CLOSER TO THE MET.

MDT RISK FOR RIPS TODAY ON THE OCEAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS PUT OUT SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PCPN WED...BUT THE TIME HEIGHTS
INDICATE GENERAL SUBSIDENCE WHICH WOULD TEND TO LIMIT VERTICAL
DEVELOPMENT AND INHIBIT ANY TRIGGER. AS A RESULT HAVE ONLY
INCLUDED ISOLD SPRINKLES ACROSS THE INTERIOR. INCREASING MOISTURE
APPEARS TO COME IN TOO LATE TO COINCIDE WITH PEAK HEATING TO HAVE
ANY SUBSTANTIAL INFLUENCE ON INSTABILITY ATTM. CLOUD COVER
ADJUSTED UPWARD TO SCT-BKN WITH TEMPS AGAIN ABV CONVECTIVE. TEMPS
CLOSE TO GMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A CLOSED LOW OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC WILL DOMINATE FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK. A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PIVOTING AROUND THIS
LOW COULD TRIGGER AN ISOLD LATE DAY SHOWER ACROSS THE INTERIOR ON
THU. COULD ALSO SEE SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS AGAIN FRI AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING WITH ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE AND GREATER INSTABILITY.

AS THE CANADIAN CLOSED LOW WEAKENS OVER THE WEEKEND...A PORTION WILL
DROP INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY...WHILE AN UPPER HIGH
STRENGTHENS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE STRENGTHENING UPPER HIGH
WILL PUSH AN OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE BACK TOWARD THE COAST...WHILE THE
INLAND TROUGH INDUCES WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG IT AND/OR
TRIGGERS SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION. ECMWF AND GGEM ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH THIS SCENARIO THAN THE GFS...BUT DIFFER ON TIMING. ATTM DECIDED
TO INCORPORATE ASPECTS OF BOTH INTO THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME
WITH SOME DIURNAL FLUCTUATION...WITH CHANCE POP SAT INTO SAT EVENING
AND AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

THE TROUGH TO THE WEST IS FCST TO BEGIN SHEARING OUT TO THE NE LATE
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...KICKING THE OFFSHORE FRONTAL
ZONE TO THE EAST. AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES AND INTERACTS WITH A
TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS...COULD SEE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS/TSTMS MON AFTERNOON/EVENING.

TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR AVG THU-FRI...THEN A LITTLE BELOW AVG THIS
WEEKEND VIA CLOUD COVER AND GREATER POP...THEN RETURNING TO NEAR AVG
ON MON.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL FOR TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.

VFR. LIGHT WINDS TODAY WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES PROBABLE FOR
COASTAL TERMINALS.

..NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE TIMING COULD BE OFF BY AN HOUR IN
EITHER DIRECTION.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE IF SEA BREEZE DOES NOT
MAKE IT AS QUICKLY AS FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR SEA BREEZE TIMING
AND DIRECTION...WINDS COULD GO MORE SOUTHERLY THAN FORECAST.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE TIMING MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR IN
EITHER DIRECTION.


.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WEDNESDAY...VFR.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM KBDR TO KFRG.
VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS/TSTORMS.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TODAY. WAVES HAVE BEEN
DECREASED BY 1/2 FT FROM WAVEWATCH ON THE OCEAN. RETAINED THE SCA
EXPIRATION TIMING OF 11 AM BASED ON THIS FCST DATA AS WELL AS
CURRENT TRENDS. WIND AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS TNGT AND WED WITH
HIPRES BUILDING OVER THE WATERS.

CONDS SHOULD REMAIN QUIET WED NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT. SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR CONDS ON THE OCEAN TO APPROACH SCA LEVELS DEPENDING ON POSITION
OF AN OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE AND TIMING OF ANY ASSOCIATED WEAK WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN IS EXPECTED THRU FRI. PARTS OF THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST...HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN THIS WEEKEND...DEPENDING ON THE POSITION OF AN OFFSHORE
FRONTAL ZONE AND TIMING OF ANY ASSOCIATED WEAK WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE. THIS POTENTIAL IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY...SO IT IS TOO
EARLY TO OFFER SPECIFIC FORECAST DETAILS OR TO MENTION IN HWO.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ350-
     353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...LN
MARINE...JMC/GOODMAN
HYDROLOGY...JMC/GOODMAN








000
FXUS61 KOKX 291132
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
732 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE JUST OFF THE
COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES PASS ACROSS. A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
WAVES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND ALONG THE
COAST...AND REMAIN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DRY AIRMASS BUILDS IN TODAY...OTHERWISE THERE WOULD BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR A FEW TSTMS WITH LOW HEIGHTS AND JULY SUN. PW/S
ONLY AROUND 60 PERCENT OF NORMAL...SO HAVE KEPT THE DRY FCST
GOING. TEMPS WILL HIT CONVECTIVE SO SCT TO OCNL BKN CU FOR THE
AFTN.

THE FAIR WX CLOUDS BEGIN TO DISSIPATE TNGT...BUT LINGERING
MOISTURE COULD END UP TRAPPED IN THE 4-7K FT RANGE.

TEMPS TODAY CLOSE TO GMOS AND TNGT CLOSER TO THE MET.

MDT RISK FOR RIPS TODAY ON THE OCEAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS PUT OUT SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PCPN WED...BUT THE TIME HEIGHTS
INDICATE GENERAL SUBSIDENCE WHICH WOULD TEND TO LIMIT VERTICAL
DEVELOPMENT AND INHIBIT ANY TRIGGER. AS A RESULT HAVE ONLY
INCLUDED ISOLD SPRINKLES ACROSS THE INTERIOR. INCREASING MOISTURE
APPEARS TO COME IN TOO LATE TO COINCIDE WITH PEAK HEATING TO HAVE
ANY SUBSTANTIAL INFLUENCE ON INSTABILITY ATTM. CLOUD COVER
ADJUSTED UPWARD TO SCT-BKN WITH TEMPS AGAIN ABV CONVECTIVE. TEMPS
CLOSE TO GMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A CLOSED LOW OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC WILL DOMINATE FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK. A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PIVOTING AROUND THIS
LOW COULD TRIGGER AN ISOLD LATE DAY SHOWER ACROSS THE INTERIOR ON
THU. COULD ALSO SEE SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS AGAIN FRI AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING WITH ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE AND GREATER INSTABILITY.

AS THE CANADIAN CLOSED LOW WEAKENS OVER THE WEEKEND...A PORTION WILL
DROP INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY...WHILE AN UPPER HIGH
STRENGTHENS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE STRENGTHENING UPPER HIGH
WILL PUSH AN OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE BACK TOWARD THE COAST...WHILE THE
INLAND TROUGH INDUCES WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG IT AND/OR
TRIGGERS SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION. ECMWF AND GGEM ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH THIS SCENARIO THAN THE GFS...BUT DIFFER ON TIMING. ATTM DECIDED
TO INCORPORATE ASPECTS OF BOTH INTO THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME
WITH SOME DIURNAL FLUCTUATION...WITH CHANCE POP SAT INTO SAT EVENING
AND AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

THE TROUGH TO THE WEST IS FCST TO BEGIN SHEARING OUT TO THE NE LATE
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...KICKING THE OFFSHORE FRONTAL
ZONE TO THE EAST. AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES AND INTERACTS WITH A
TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS...COULD SEE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS/TSTMS MON AFTERNOON/EVENING.

TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR AVG THU-FRI...THEN A LITTLE BELOW AVG THIS
WEEKEND VIA CLOUD COVER AND GREATER POP...THEN RETURNING TO NEAR AVG
ON MON.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL FOR TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.

VFR. LIGHT WINDS TODAY WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES PROBABLE FOR
COASTAL TERMINALS.

..NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE TIMING COULD BE OFF BY AN HOUR IN
EITHER DIRECTION.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE IF SEA BREEZE DOES NOT
MAKE IT AS QUICKLY AS FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR SEA BREEZE TIMING
AND DIRECTION...WINDS COULD GO MORE SOUTHERLY THAN FORECAST.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE TIMING MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR IN
EITHER DIRECTION.


.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WEDNESDAY...VFR.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM KBDR TO KFRG.
VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS/TSTORMS.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TODAY. WAVES HAVE BEEN
DECREASED BY 1/2 FT FROM WAVEWATCH ON THE OCEAN. RETAINED THE SCA
EXPIRATION TIMING OF 11 AM BASED ON THIS FCST DATA AS WELL AS
CURRENT TRENDS. WIND AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS TNGT AND WED WITH
HIPRES BUILDING OVER THE WATERS.

CONDS SHOULD REMAIN QUIET WED NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT. SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR CONDS ON THE OCEAN TO APPROACH SCA LEVELS DEPENDING ON POSITION
OF AN OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE AND TIMING OF ANY ASSOCIATED WEAK WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN IS EXPECTED THRU FRI. PARTS OF THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST...HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN THIS WEEKEND...DEPENDING ON THE POSITION OF AN OFFSHORE
FRONTAL ZONE AND TIMING OF ANY ASSOCIATED WEAK WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE. THIS POTENTIAL IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY...SO IT IS TOO
EARLY TO OFFER SPECIFIC FORECAST DETAILS OR TO MENTION IN HWO.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ350-
     353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...LN
MARINE...JMC/GOODMAN
HYDROLOGY...JMC/GOODMAN








000
FXUS61 KOKX 291132
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
732 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE JUST OFF THE
COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES PASS ACROSS. A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
WAVES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND ALONG THE
COAST...AND REMAIN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DRY AIRMASS BUILDS IN TODAY...OTHERWISE THERE WOULD BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR A FEW TSTMS WITH LOW HEIGHTS AND JULY SUN. PW/S
ONLY AROUND 60 PERCENT OF NORMAL...SO HAVE KEPT THE DRY FCST
GOING. TEMPS WILL HIT CONVECTIVE SO SCT TO OCNL BKN CU FOR THE
AFTN.

THE FAIR WX CLOUDS BEGIN TO DISSIPATE TNGT...BUT LINGERING
MOISTURE COULD END UP TRAPPED IN THE 4-7K FT RANGE.

TEMPS TODAY CLOSE TO GMOS AND TNGT CLOSER TO THE MET.

MDT RISK FOR RIPS TODAY ON THE OCEAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS PUT OUT SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PCPN WED...BUT THE TIME HEIGHTS
INDICATE GENERAL SUBSIDENCE WHICH WOULD TEND TO LIMIT VERTICAL
DEVELOPMENT AND INHIBIT ANY TRIGGER. AS A RESULT HAVE ONLY
INCLUDED ISOLD SPRINKLES ACROSS THE INTERIOR. INCREASING MOISTURE
APPEARS TO COME IN TOO LATE TO COINCIDE WITH PEAK HEATING TO HAVE
ANY SUBSTANTIAL INFLUENCE ON INSTABILITY ATTM. CLOUD COVER
ADJUSTED UPWARD TO SCT-BKN WITH TEMPS AGAIN ABV CONVECTIVE. TEMPS
CLOSE TO GMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A CLOSED LOW OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC WILL DOMINATE FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK. A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PIVOTING AROUND THIS
LOW COULD TRIGGER AN ISOLD LATE DAY SHOWER ACROSS THE INTERIOR ON
THU. COULD ALSO SEE SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS AGAIN FRI AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING WITH ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE AND GREATER INSTABILITY.

AS THE CANADIAN CLOSED LOW WEAKENS OVER THE WEEKEND...A PORTION WILL
DROP INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY...WHILE AN UPPER HIGH
STRENGTHENS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE STRENGTHENING UPPER HIGH
WILL PUSH AN OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE BACK TOWARD THE COAST...WHILE THE
INLAND TROUGH INDUCES WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG IT AND/OR
TRIGGERS SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION. ECMWF AND GGEM ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH THIS SCENARIO THAN THE GFS...BUT DIFFER ON TIMING. ATTM DECIDED
TO INCORPORATE ASPECTS OF BOTH INTO THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME
WITH SOME DIURNAL FLUCTUATION...WITH CHANCE POP SAT INTO SAT EVENING
AND AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

THE TROUGH TO THE WEST IS FCST TO BEGIN SHEARING OUT TO THE NE LATE
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...KICKING THE OFFSHORE FRONTAL
ZONE TO THE EAST. AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES AND INTERACTS WITH A
TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS...COULD SEE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS/TSTMS MON AFTERNOON/EVENING.

TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR AVG THU-FRI...THEN A LITTLE BELOW AVG THIS
WEEKEND VIA CLOUD COVER AND GREATER POP...THEN RETURNING TO NEAR AVG
ON MON.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL FOR TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.

VFR. LIGHT WINDS TODAY WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES PROBABLE FOR
COASTAL TERMINALS.

..NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE TIMING COULD BE OFF BY AN HOUR IN
EITHER DIRECTION.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE IF SEA BREEZE DOES NOT
MAKE IT AS QUICKLY AS FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR SEA BREEZE TIMING
AND DIRECTION...WINDS COULD GO MORE SOUTHERLY THAN FORECAST.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE TIMING MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR IN
EITHER DIRECTION.


.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WEDNESDAY...VFR.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM KBDR TO KFRG.
VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS/TSTORMS.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TODAY. WAVES HAVE BEEN
DECREASED BY 1/2 FT FROM WAVEWATCH ON THE OCEAN. RETAINED THE SCA
EXPIRATION TIMING OF 11 AM BASED ON THIS FCST DATA AS WELL AS
CURRENT TRENDS. WIND AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS TNGT AND WED WITH
HIPRES BUILDING OVER THE WATERS.

CONDS SHOULD REMAIN QUIET WED NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT. SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR CONDS ON THE OCEAN TO APPROACH SCA LEVELS DEPENDING ON POSITION
OF AN OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE AND TIMING OF ANY ASSOCIATED WEAK WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN IS EXPECTED THRU FRI. PARTS OF THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST...HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN THIS WEEKEND...DEPENDING ON THE POSITION OF AN OFFSHORE
FRONTAL ZONE AND TIMING OF ANY ASSOCIATED WEAK WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE. THIS POTENTIAL IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY...SO IT IS TOO
EARLY TO OFFER SPECIFIC FORECAST DETAILS OR TO MENTION IN HWO.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ350-
     353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...LN
MARINE...JMC/GOODMAN
HYDROLOGY...JMC/GOODMAN








000
FXUS61 KBOX 291059
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
659 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY AND LESS HUMID WEATHER FOLLOWS TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A
COLD FRONT SWEEPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. A FEW
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE THU AND FRI...BUT
MOST OF THE TIME WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER.  A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN
IS POSSIBLE SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND IF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS CLOSE
ENOUGH TO THE COAST...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
***BEAUTIFUL WEATHER TODAY WITH PLEASANT TEMPS AND LOW HUMIDITY***

7 AM UPDATE...MADE A FEW MINOR UPDATES MAINLY TO SKY COVER
FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL
MASSACHUSETTS. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE BY DAYBREAK.
OTHERWISE...ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL
RESULT IN COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS ALONG WITH LOW HUMIDITY TODAY.
UNDER A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE...HIGH TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...

A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE FOR LATE JULY WILL COMBINE WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES/LIGHT WINDS...RESULTING IN AN EXCELLENT NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING.  LOW TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 50S...TO THE LOWER 60S IN
THE URBAN HEAT ISLANDS OF BOSTON/PROVIDENCE.  WE MAY EVEN SEE A FEW
UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORMALLY COOLEST OUTLYING LOCATIONS OF
SOUTHWEST NH/WESTERN MA!  SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE IN
THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS...BUT NOTHING WIDESPREAD IS
ANTICIPATED.

WEDNESDAY...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.  THIS
WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.  HIGHS SHOULD
MAINLY BE IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 WITH LOW HUMIDITY.  A MIXTURE OF
CLOUDS AND SUN ANTICIPATED AS A MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION.  MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED...BUT THE SHORTWAVE
COULD RESULT IN A PASSING SPRINKLE OR TWO.  WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH A
WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING EAST OF THE BENCHMARK...BUT AT
THIS TIME APPEARS IT SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO SPARE EVEN THE
CAPE/ISLANDS ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY OTHERWISE QUIET WEATHER
* LOW PRES COULD BRING RAIN ESPECIALLY TO THE SOUTH COAST SAT

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM.  THERE
ARE DETAIL DIFFERENCES OF COURSE BUT OVERALL THE SYNOPTIC SCALE
PATTERN IS WELL MODELED.  THE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. IS THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF THE LONG TERM.  THE TROUGH IS FAR ENOUGH EAST THAT MOISTURE
IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW SHOWERS ON THURSDAY WITH A SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE
TROUGH.  OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY QUIET AND SEASONABLE WEATHER
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

THE TROUGH AXIS STARTS TO SHIFT MORE TO THE WEST THIS WEEKEND...
ALLOWING MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION.  A FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ALONG THE FRONT.  THIS WILL BRING STEADY RAIN TO AT LEAST A PORTION
OF THE REGION. THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE MODELS AS TO HOW
CLOSE THIS FRONT GETS TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THE CLOSER THE FRONT
COMES TO THE AREA...THE MORE WIDESPREAD THE RAIN.  MODEL BLEND
CURRENTLY BRINGS THE PRECIP INTO SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND
RHODE ISLAND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR CONDITIONS OTHER THAN
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.  AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  EXPECT AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST SEA
BREEZE TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR. LOW
PROBABILITY OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN -SHRA.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  VFR NW.  MVFR CONDITIONS MORE
PROBABLE SE IN -SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LEFT OVER SWELL WILL ALLOW SCA SEAS TO
LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS AND
WESTERN SOUNDS. OTHERWISE...WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
LEVELS ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION.

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  ANY LEFT OVER MARGINAL SCA
SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...FINE BOATING WEATHER AS WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP
WINDS/SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS ALONG WITH GOOD VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  QUIET BOATING
WEATHER EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS.

SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.  MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE WITH AN
APPROACHING FRONT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ235-237.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK
NEAR TERM...FRANK/RLG
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...FRANK/RLG
MARINE...FRANK/RLG




000
FXUS61 KBOX 291059
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
659 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY AND LESS HUMID WEATHER FOLLOWS TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A
COLD FRONT SWEEPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. A FEW
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE THU AND FRI...BUT
MOST OF THE TIME WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER.  A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN
IS POSSIBLE SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND IF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS CLOSE
ENOUGH TO THE COAST...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
***BEAUTIFUL WEATHER TODAY WITH PLEASANT TEMPS AND LOW HUMIDITY***

7 AM UPDATE...MADE A FEW MINOR UPDATES MAINLY TO SKY COVER
FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL
MASSACHUSETTS. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE BY DAYBREAK.
OTHERWISE...ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL
RESULT IN COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS ALONG WITH LOW HUMIDITY TODAY.
UNDER A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE...HIGH TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...

A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE FOR LATE JULY WILL COMBINE WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES/LIGHT WINDS...RESULTING IN AN EXCELLENT NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING.  LOW TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 50S...TO THE LOWER 60S IN
THE URBAN HEAT ISLANDS OF BOSTON/PROVIDENCE.  WE MAY EVEN SEE A FEW
UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORMALLY COOLEST OUTLYING LOCATIONS OF
SOUTHWEST NH/WESTERN MA!  SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE IN
THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS...BUT NOTHING WIDESPREAD IS
ANTICIPATED.

WEDNESDAY...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.  THIS
WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.  HIGHS SHOULD
MAINLY BE IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 WITH LOW HUMIDITY.  A MIXTURE OF
CLOUDS AND SUN ANTICIPATED AS A MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION.  MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED...BUT THE SHORTWAVE
COULD RESULT IN A PASSING SPRINKLE OR TWO.  WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH A
WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING EAST OF THE BENCHMARK...BUT AT
THIS TIME APPEARS IT SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO SPARE EVEN THE
CAPE/ISLANDS ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY OTHERWISE QUIET WEATHER
* LOW PRES COULD BRING RAIN ESPECIALLY TO THE SOUTH COAST SAT

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM.  THERE
ARE DETAIL DIFFERENCES OF COURSE BUT OVERALL THE SYNOPTIC SCALE
PATTERN IS WELL MODELED.  THE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. IS THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF THE LONG TERM.  THE TROUGH IS FAR ENOUGH EAST THAT MOISTURE
IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW SHOWERS ON THURSDAY WITH A SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE
TROUGH.  OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY QUIET AND SEASONABLE WEATHER
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

THE TROUGH AXIS STARTS TO SHIFT MORE TO THE WEST THIS WEEKEND...
ALLOWING MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION.  A FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ALONG THE FRONT.  THIS WILL BRING STEADY RAIN TO AT LEAST A PORTION
OF THE REGION. THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE MODELS AS TO HOW
CLOSE THIS FRONT GETS TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THE CLOSER THE FRONT
COMES TO THE AREA...THE MORE WIDESPREAD THE RAIN.  MODEL BLEND
CURRENTLY BRINGS THE PRECIP INTO SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND
RHODE ISLAND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR CONDITIONS OTHER THAN
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.  AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  EXPECT AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST SEA
BREEZE TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR. LOW
PROBABILITY OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN -SHRA.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  VFR NW.  MVFR CONDITIONS MORE
PROBABLE SE IN -SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LEFT OVER SWELL WILL ALLOW SCA SEAS TO
LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS AND
WESTERN SOUNDS. OTHERWISE...WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
LEVELS ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION.

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  ANY LEFT OVER MARGINAL SCA
SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...FINE BOATING WEATHER AS WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP
WINDS/SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS ALONG WITH GOOD VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  QUIET BOATING
WEATHER EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS.

SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.  MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE WITH AN
APPROACHING FRONT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ235-237.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK
NEAR TERM...FRANK/RLG
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...FRANK/RLG
MARINE...FRANK/RLG



000
FXUS61 KALY 291037
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
637 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY ALLOWING
HIGHER PRESSURE TO BUILD IN RESULTING IN A FAIR BUT COOL DAY.
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE LOW IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY DUE TO A
STRONGER DISTURBANCE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION AS IT IS DRAWN
NORTHWARD BY THE LARGE CLOSED LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS IS
ALLOWING HIGHER PRESSURE TO BUILD. LOOKING AT A FAIR BUT COOL
DAY WITH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S. ONLY SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE MAINLY BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL DATA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LARGE CLOSED LOW AS IT
WOBBLES OVER EASTERN CANADA AS SHORT WAVES WILL ROTATE ABOUT IT.
WITH THE HELP OF DAYTIME HEATING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR. THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE
WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY AFFECTING MORE OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A
STRONGER SHORT WAVE APPROACHES AND PASSES OVERHEAD.

DAYTIME HIGHS ARE ANTICIPATED TO FALL A BIT SHORT OF NORMAL FOR LATE
JULY. NIGHTTIME WILL BE ON THE COOLER SIDE RUNNING ABOUT 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT AND AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHEAST...AND STRONG RIDGING IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CONUS.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BE
WEAKENING...HOWEVER...ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS...COMBINED WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW AND DAYTIME HEATING...WILL BE ENOUGH TO CONTINUE A THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEKEND. THE
BEST CHANCE OF A SHOWER/TSTM WILL BE IN THE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS...THANKS TO HEATING. TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE...WITH HIGHS N THE
70S TO LOW 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EVEN
INTO MONDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
CONUS...EVEN THOUGH IT WON/T BE AS PRONOUNCED AND THE TROUGH WON/T
CERTAINLY BE AS SHARP IN AMPLITUDE. AS A RESULT...TEMPS WILL BE A
LITTLE WARMER THAN THE WEEKEND FOR MONDAY...WITH HIGHS IN VALLEY
AREAS REACHING WELL INTO THE 80S...BUT THE THREAT FOR AN
AFTN/EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS SITUATED JUST NORTH OF THE REGION OVER
CANADA. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS SYSTEM IS ALLOWING FOR SOME
PASSING CLOUDS...ESP IN UPSLOPE FAVORED LOCATIONS OF THE BERKSHIRES.
THIS IS CAUSING A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AT KPSF. HOWEVER...AS DRIER
AIR WORKS IN FROM THE WEST...THESE CLOUDS WILL START TO SCATTER
OUT...AND FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BECOME VFR FOR ALL TAF SITES BY MID
MORNING.

VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY
WITH JUST SCT DIURNAL FLAT CU. LIGHT WESTERLY SFC WINDS WILL BE
AROUND 5-10 KTS. THE CLOUDS WILL START TO MAINLY DISSIPATE FOR
TONIGHT...WITH JUST A FEW LINGERING CLOUDS AROUND 5-6 KFT...AND
WINDS BECOMING LIGHT TO CALM AT ALL SITES. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A
PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR FOG LATE TONIGHT AT KGFL/KPSF...OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY ALLOWING
HIGHER PRESSURE TO BUILD IN RESULTING IN A FAIR BUT COOL DAY.
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE LOW IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY DUE TO A
STRONGER DISTURBANCE.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40 TO 50
PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A
RECOVERY TO 80 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT IS EXPECTED FOR THE OVERNIGHTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY WHICH WILL ALLOW RIVER AND STREAM
LEVELS TO RECEDE. HOWEVER...THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED THIS
WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS LOW WILL WOBBLE
OVER EASTERN CANADA AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT. THE LOW WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND HOWEVER THE THREAT FOR
STORMS WILL CONTINUE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA








000
FXUS61 KALY 291037
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
637 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY ALLOWING
HIGHER PRESSURE TO BUILD IN RESULTING IN A FAIR BUT COOL DAY.
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE LOW IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY DUE TO A
STRONGER DISTURBANCE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION AS IT IS DRAWN
NORTHWARD BY THE LARGE CLOSED LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS IS
ALLOWING HIGHER PRESSURE TO BUILD. LOOKING AT A FAIR BUT COOL
DAY WITH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S. ONLY SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE MAINLY BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL DATA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LARGE CLOSED LOW AS IT
WOBBLES OVER EASTERN CANADA AS SHORT WAVES WILL ROTATE ABOUT IT.
WITH THE HELP OF DAYTIME HEATING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR. THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE
WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY AFFECTING MORE OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A
STRONGER SHORT WAVE APPROACHES AND PASSES OVERHEAD.

DAYTIME HIGHS ARE ANTICIPATED TO FALL A BIT SHORT OF NORMAL FOR LATE
JULY. NIGHTTIME WILL BE ON THE COOLER SIDE RUNNING ABOUT 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT AND AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHEAST...AND STRONG RIDGING IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CONUS.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BE
WEAKENING...HOWEVER...ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS...COMBINED WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW AND DAYTIME HEATING...WILL BE ENOUGH TO CONTINUE A THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEKEND. THE
BEST CHANCE OF A SHOWER/TSTM WILL BE IN THE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS...THANKS TO HEATING. TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE...WITH HIGHS N THE
70S TO LOW 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EVEN
INTO MONDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
CONUS...EVEN THOUGH IT WON/T BE AS PRONOUNCED AND THE TROUGH WON/T
CERTAINLY BE AS SHARP IN AMPLITUDE. AS A RESULT...TEMPS WILL BE A
LITTLE WARMER THAN THE WEEKEND FOR MONDAY...WITH HIGHS IN VALLEY
AREAS REACHING WELL INTO THE 80S...BUT THE THREAT FOR AN
AFTN/EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS SITUATED JUST NORTH OF THE REGION OVER
CANADA. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS SYSTEM IS ALLOWING FOR SOME
PASSING CLOUDS...ESP IN UPSLOPE FAVORED LOCATIONS OF THE BERKSHIRES.
THIS IS CAUSING A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AT KPSF. HOWEVER...AS DRIER
AIR WORKS IN FROM THE WEST...THESE CLOUDS WILL START TO SCATTER
OUT...AND FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BECOME VFR FOR ALL TAF SITES BY MID
MORNING.

VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY
WITH JUST SCT DIURNAL FLAT CU. LIGHT WESTERLY SFC WINDS WILL BE
AROUND 5-10 KTS. THE CLOUDS WILL START TO MAINLY DISSIPATE FOR
TONIGHT...WITH JUST A FEW LINGERING CLOUDS AROUND 5-6 KFT...AND
WINDS BECOMING LIGHT TO CALM AT ALL SITES. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A
PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR FOG LATE TONIGHT AT KGFL/KPSF...OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY ALLOWING
HIGHER PRESSURE TO BUILD IN RESULTING IN A FAIR BUT COOL DAY.
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE LOW IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY DUE TO A
STRONGER DISTURBANCE.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40 TO 50
PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A
RECOVERY TO 80 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT IS EXPECTED FOR THE OVERNIGHTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY WHICH WILL ALLOW RIVER AND STREAM
LEVELS TO RECEDE. HOWEVER...THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED THIS
WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS LOW WILL WOBBLE
OVER EASTERN CANADA AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT. THE LOW WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND HOWEVER THE THREAT FOR
STORMS WILL CONTINUE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA








000
FXUS61 KALY 291037
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
637 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY ALLOWING
HIGHER PRESSURE TO BUILD IN RESULTING IN A FAIR BUT COOL DAY.
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE LOW IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY DUE TO A
STRONGER DISTURBANCE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION AS IT IS DRAWN
NORTHWARD BY THE LARGE CLOSED LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS IS
ALLOWING HIGHER PRESSURE TO BUILD. LOOKING AT A FAIR BUT COOL
DAY WITH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S. ONLY SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE MAINLY BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL DATA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LARGE CLOSED LOW AS IT
WOBBLES OVER EASTERN CANADA AS SHORT WAVES WILL ROTATE ABOUT IT.
WITH THE HELP OF DAYTIME HEATING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR. THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE
WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY AFFECTING MORE OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A
STRONGER SHORT WAVE APPROACHES AND PASSES OVERHEAD.

DAYTIME HIGHS ARE ANTICIPATED TO FALL A BIT SHORT OF NORMAL FOR LATE
JULY. NIGHTTIME WILL BE ON THE COOLER SIDE RUNNING ABOUT 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT AND AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHEAST...AND STRONG RIDGING IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CONUS.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BE
WEAKENING...HOWEVER...ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS...COMBINED WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW AND DAYTIME HEATING...WILL BE ENOUGH TO CONTINUE A THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEKEND. THE
BEST CHANCE OF A SHOWER/TSTM WILL BE IN THE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS...THANKS TO HEATING. TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE...WITH HIGHS N THE
70S TO LOW 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EVEN
INTO MONDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
CONUS...EVEN THOUGH IT WON/T BE AS PRONOUNCED AND THE TROUGH WON/T
CERTAINLY BE AS SHARP IN AMPLITUDE. AS A RESULT...TEMPS WILL BE A
LITTLE WARMER THAN THE WEEKEND FOR MONDAY...WITH HIGHS IN VALLEY
AREAS REACHING WELL INTO THE 80S...BUT THE THREAT FOR AN
AFTN/EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS SITUATED JUST NORTH OF THE REGION OVER
CANADA. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS SYSTEM IS ALLOWING FOR SOME
PASSING CLOUDS...ESP IN UPSLOPE FAVORED LOCATIONS OF THE BERKSHIRES.
THIS IS CAUSING A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AT KPSF. HOWEVER...AS DRIER
AIR WORKS IN FROM THE WEST...THESE CLOUDS WILL START TO SCATTER
OUT...AND FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BECOME VFR FOR ALL TAF SITES BY MID
MORNING.

VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY
WITH JUST SCT DIURNAL FLAT CU. LIGHT WESTERLY SFC WINDS WILL BE
AROUND 5-10 KTS. THE CLOUDS WILL START TO MAINLY DISSIPATE FOR
TONIGHT...WITH JUST A FEW LINGERING CLOUDS AROUND 5-6 KFT...AND
WINDS BECOMING LIGHT TO CALM AT ALL SITES. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A
PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR FOG LATE TONIGHT AT KGFL/KPSF...OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY ALLOWING
HIGHER PRESSURE TO BUILD IN RESULTING IN A FAIR BUT COOL DAY.
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE LOW IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY DUE TO A
STRONGER DISTURBANCE.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40 TO 50
PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A
RECOVERY TO 80 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT IS EXPECTED FOR THE OVERNIGHTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY WHICH WILL ALLOW RIVER AND STREAM
LEVELS TO RECEDE. HOWEVER...THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED THIS
WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS LOW WILL WOBBLE
OVER EASTERN CANADA AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT. THE LOW WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND HOWEVER THE THREAT FOR
STORMS WILL CONTINUE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA








000
FXUS61 KALY 291037
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
637 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY ALLOWING
HIGHER PRESSURE TO BUILD IN RESULTING IN A FAIR BUT COOL DAY.
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE LOW IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY DUE TO A
STRONGER DISTURBANCE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION AS IT IS DRAWN
NORTHWARD BY THE LARGE CLOSED LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS IS
ALLOWING HIGHER PRESSURE TO BUILD. LOOKING AT A FAIR BUT COOL
DAY WITH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S. ONLY SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE MAINLY BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL DATA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LARGE CLOSED LOW AS IT
WOBBLES OVER EASTERN CANADA AS SHORT WAVES WILL ROTATE ABOUT IT.
WITH THE HELP OF DAYTIME HEATING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR. THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE
WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY AFFECTING MORE OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A
STRONGER SHORT WAVE APPROACHES AND PASSES OVERHEAD.

DAYTIME HIGHS ARE ANTICIPATED TO FALL A BIT SHORT OF NORMAL FOR LATE
JULY. NIGHTTIME WILL BE ON THE COOLER SIDE RUNNING ABOUT 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT AND AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHEAST...AND STRONG RIDGING IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CONUS.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BE
WEAKENING...HOWEVER...ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS...COMBINED WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW AND DAYTIME HEATING...WILL BE ENOUGH TO CONTINUE A THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEKEND. THE
BEST CHANCE OF A SHOWER/TSTM WILL BE IN THE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS...THANKS TO HEATING. TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE...WITH HIGHS N THE
70S TO LOW 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EVEN
INTO MONDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
CONUS...EVEN THOUGH IT WON/T BE AS PRONOUNCED AND THE TROUGH WON/T
CERTAINLY BE AS SHARP IN AMPLITUDE. AS A RESULT...TEMPS WILL BE A
LITTLE WARMER THAN THE WEEKEND FOR MONDAY...WITH HIGHS IN VALLEY
AREAS REACHING WELL INTO THE 80S...BUT THE THREAT FOR AN
AFTN/EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS SITUATED JUST NORTH OF THE REGION OVER
CANADA. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS SYSTEM IS ALLOWING FOR SOME
PASSING CLOUDS...ESP IN UPSLOPE FAVORED LOCATIONS OF THE BERKSHIRES.
THIS IS CAUSING A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AT KPSF. HOWEVER...AS DRIER
AIR WORKS IN FROM THE WEST...THESE CLOUDS WILL START TO SCATTER
OUT...AND FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BECOME VFR FOR ALL TAF SITES BY MID
MORNING.

VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY
WITH JUST SCT DIURNAL FLAT CU. LIGHT WESTERLY SFC WINDS WILL BE
AROUND 5-10 KTS. THE CLOUDS WILL START TO MAINLY DISSIPATE FOR
TONIGHT...WITH JUST A FEW LINGERING CLOUDS AROUND 5-6 KFT...AND
WINDS BECOMING LIGHT TO CALM AT ALL SITES. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A
PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR FOG LATE TONIGHT AT KGFL/KPSF...OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY ALLOWING
HIGHER PRESSURE TO BUILD IN RESULTING IN A FAIR BUT COOL DAY.
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE LOW IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY DUE TO A
STRONGER DISTURBANCE.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40 TO 50
PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A
RECOVERY TO 80 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT IS EXPECTED FOR THE OVERNIGHTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY WHICH WILL ALLOW RIVER AND STREAM
LEVELS TO RECEDE. HOWEVER...THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED THIS
WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS LOW WILL WOBBLE
OVER EASTERN CANADA AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT. THE LOW WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND HOWEVER THE THREAT FOR
STORMS WILL CONTINUE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA








000
FXUS61 KALY 290835
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
435 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY ALLOWING
HIGHER PRESSURE TO BUILD IN RESULTING IN A FAIR BUT COOL DAY.
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE LOW IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY DUE TO A
STRONGER DISTURBANCE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY AS IT IS DRAWN
NORTHWARD BY THE LARGE CLOSED LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS WILL
ALLOW HIGHER PRESSURE TO BUILD IN RESULTING IN A FAIR BUT COOL DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LARGE CLOSED LOW AS IT
WOBBLES OVER EASTERN CANADA AS SHORT WAVES WILL ROTATE ABOUT IT.
WITH THE HELP OF DAYTIME HEATING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR. THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE
WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY AFFECTING MORE OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A
STRONGER SHORT WAVE APPROACHES AND PASSES OVERHEAD.

DAYTIME HIGHS ARE ANTICIPATED TO FALL A BIT SHORT OF NORMAL FOR LATE
JULY. NIGHTTIME WILL BE ON THE COOLER SIDE RUNNING ABOUT 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT AND AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHEAST...AND STRONG RIDGING IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CONUS.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BE
WEAKENING...HOWEVER...ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS...COMBINED WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW AND DAYTIME HEATING...WILL BE ENOUGH TO CONTINUE A THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEKEND. THE
BEST CHANCE OF A SHOWER/TSTM WILL BE IN THE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS...THANKS TO HEATING. TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE...WITH HIGHS N THE
70S TO LOW 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EVEN
INTO MONDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
CONUS...EVEN THOUGH IT WON/T BE AS PRONOUNCED AND THE TROUGH WON/T
CERTAINLY BE AS SHARP IN AMPLITUDE. AS A RESULT...TEMPS WILL BE A
LITTLE WARMER THAN THE WEEKEND FOR MONDAY...WITH HIGHS IN VALLEY
AREAS REACHING WELL INTO THE 80S...BUT THE THREAT FOR AN
AFTN/EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE.


&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH A COLD FRONT NOW EAST OF THE AREA...SHOWERS HAVE ENDED ACROSS
THE REGION...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS REMAIN OVER THE REGION THANKS TO AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE AREA OVER CANADA. FLYING
CONDITIONS ARE VFR FOR THE VALLEY TAF SITES...BUT REMAIN IFR AT KPSF
THANKS TO LINGERING LOW STRATUS.  AS LESS HUMID AIR WORKS INTO THE
REGION...CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY SCT OUT BY LATE TONIGHT...WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING AT KPSF BETWEEN 09Z-12Z. W-NW WINDS WILL BE
AROUND 5-10 KTS...WHICH WILL PREVENT ANY FOG FROM FORMING.

DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE WITH
JUST SCT DIURNAL FLAT CU. LIGHT WESTERLY SFC WINDS WILL BE AROUND 5
KTS. THE CLOUDS WILL START TO DISSIPATE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
JUST A FEW LINGERING CLOUDS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...AND WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT TO CALM AT ALL SITES.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY ALLOWING
HIGHER PRESSURE TO BUILD IN RESULTING IN A FAIR BUT COOL DAY.
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE LOW IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY DUE TO A
STRONGER DISTURBANCE.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40 TO 50
PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A
RECOVERY TO 80 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT IS EXPECTED FOR THE OVERNIGHTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY WHICH WILL ALLOW RIVER AND STREAM
LEVELS TO RECEDE. HOWEVER...THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED THIS
WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS LOW WILL WOBBLE
OVER EASTERN CANADA AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT. THE LOW WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND HOWEVER THE THREAT FOR
STORMS WILL CONTINUE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA








000
FXUS61 KBOX 290822
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
422 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY AND LESS HUMID WEATHER FOLLOWS TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A
COLD FRONT SWEEPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. A FEW
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE THU AND FRI...BUT
MOST OF THE TIME WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER.  A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN
IS POSSIBLE SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND IF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS CLOSE
ENOUGH TO THE COAST...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
***BEAUTIFUL WEATHER TODAY WITH PLEASANT TEMPS AND LOW HUMIDITY***

SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE BY DAYBREAK.
OTHERWISE...ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL
RESULT IN COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS ALONG WITH LOW HUMIDITY TODAY.
UNDER A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE...HIGH TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...

A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE FOR LATE JULY WILL COMBINE WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES/LIGHT WINDS...RESULTING IN AN EXCELLENT NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING.  LOW TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 50S...TO THE LOWER 60S IN
THE URBAN HEAT ISLANDS OF BOSTON/PROVIDENCE.  WE MAY EVEN SEE A FEW
UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORMALLY COOLEST OUTLYING LOCATIONS OF
SOUTHWEST NH/WESTERN MA!  SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE IN
THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS...BUT NOTHING WIDESPREAD IS
ANTICIPATED.

WEDNESDAY...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.  THIS
WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.  HIGHS SHOULD
MAINLY BE IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 WITH LOW HUMIDITY.  A MIXTURE OF
CLOUDS AND SUN ANTICIPATED AS A MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION.  MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED...BUT THE SHORTWAVE
COULD RESULT IN A PASSING SPRINKLE OR TWO.  WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH A
WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING EAST OF THE BENCHMARK...BUT AT
THIS TIME APPEARS IT SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO SPARE EVEN THE
CAPE/ISLANDS ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY OTHERWISE QUIET WEATHER
* LOW PRES COULD BRING RAIN ESPECIALLY TO THE SOUTH COAST SAT

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM.  THERE
ARE DETAIL DIFFERENCES OF COURSE BUT OVERALL THE SYNOPTIC SCALE
PATTERN IS WELL MODELED.  THE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. IS THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF THE LONG TERM.  THE TROUGH IS FAR ENOUGH EAST THAT MOISTURE
IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW SHOWERS ON THURSDAY WITH A SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE
TROUGH.  OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY QUIET AND SEASONABLE WEATHER
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

THE TROUGH AXIS STARTS TO SHIFT MORE TO THE WEST THIS WEEKEND...
ALLOWING MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION.  A FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ALONG THE FRONT.  THIS WILL BRING STEADY RAIN TO AT LEAST A PORTION
OF THE REGION. THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE MODELS AS TO HOW
CLOSE THIS FRONT GETS TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THE CLOSER THE FRONT
COMES TO THE AREA...THE MORE WIDESPREAD THE RAIN.  MODEL BLEND
CURRENTLY BRINGS THE PRECIP INTO SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND
RHODE ISLAND.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MARGINAL MVFR CIGS ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR
NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY DAYBREAK.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR CONDITIONS OTHER THAN
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.  AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  EXPECT AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST SEA
BREEZE TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR. LOW
PROBABILITY OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN -SHRA.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  VFR NW.  MVFR CONDITIONS MORE
PROBABLE SE IN -SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LEFT OVER SWELL WILL ALLOW SCA SEAS TO
LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS AND
WESTERN SOUNDS. OTHERWISE...WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
LEVELS ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION.

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  ANY LEFT OVER MARGINAL SCA
SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...FINE BOATING WEATHER AS WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP
WINDS/SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS ALONG WITH GOOD VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  QUIET BOATING
WEATHER EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS.

SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.  MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE WITH AN
APPROACHING FRONT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...FRANK/RLG
MARINE...FRANK/RLG



000
FXUS61 KBOX 290822
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
422 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY AND LESS HUMID WEATHER FOLLOWS TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A
COLD FRONT SWEEPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. A FEW
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE THU AND FRI...BUT
MOST OF THE TIME WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER.  A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN
IS POSSIBLE SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND IF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS CLOSE
ENOUGH TO THE COAST...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
***BEAUTIFUL WEATHER TODAY WITH PLEASANT TEMPS AND LOW HUMIDITY***

SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE BY DAYBREAK.
OTHERWISE...ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL
RESULT IN COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS ALONG WITH LOW HUMIDITY TODAY.
UNDER A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE...HIGH TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...

A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE FOR LATE JULY WILL COMBINE WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES/LIGHT WINDS...RESULTING IN AN EXCELLENT NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING.  LOW TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 50S...TO THE LOWER 60S IN
THE URBAN HEAT ISLANDS OF BOSTON/PROVIDENCE.  WE MAY EVEN SEE A FEW
UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORMALLY COOLEST OUTLYING LOCATIONS OF
SOUTHWEST NH/WESTERN MA!  SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE IN
THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS...BUT NOTHING WIDESPREAD IS
ANTICIPATED.

WEDNESDAY...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.  THIS
WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.  HIGHS SHOULD
MAINLY BE IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 WITH LOW HUMIDITY.  A MIXTURE OF
CLOUDS AND SUN ANTICIPATED AS A MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION.  MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED...BUT THE SHORTWAVE
COULD RESULT IN A PASSING SPRINKLE OR TWO.  WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH A
WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING EAST OF THE BENCHMARK...BUT AT
THIS TIME APPEARS IT SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO SPARE EVEN THE
CAPE/ISLANDS ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY OTHERWISE QUIET WEATHER
* LOW PRES COULD BRING RAIN ESPECIALLY TO THE SOUTH COAST SAT

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM.  THERE
ARE DETAIL DIFFERENCES OF COURSE BUT OVERALL THE SYNOPTIC SCALE
PATTERN IS WELL MODELED.  THE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. IS THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF THE LONG TERM.  THE TROUGH IS FAR ENOUGH EAST THAT MOISTURE
IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW SHOWERS ON THURSDAY WITH A SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE
TROUGH.  OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY QUIET AND SEASONABLE WEATHER
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

THE TROUGH AXIS STARTS TO SHIFT MORE TO THE WEST THIS WEEKEND...
ALLOWING MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION.  A FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ALONG THE FRONT.  THIS WILL BRING STEADY RAIN TO AT LEAST A PORTION
OF THE REGION. THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE MODELS AS TO HOW
CLOSE THIS FRONT GETS TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THE CLOSER THE FRONT
COMES TO THE AREA...THE MORE WIDESPREAD THE RAIN.  MODEL BLEND
CURRENTLY BRINGS THE PRECIP INTO SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND
RHODE ISLAND.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MARGINAL MVFR CIGS ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR
NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY DAYBREAK.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR CONDITIONS OTHER THAN
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.  AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  EXPECT AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST SEA
BREEZE TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR. LOW
PROBABILITY OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN -SHRA.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  VFR NW.  MVFR CONDITIONS MORE
PROBABLE SE IN -SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LEFT OVER SWELL WILL ALLOW SCA SEAS TO
LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS AND
WESTERN SOUNDS. OTHERWISE...WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
LEVELS ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION.

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  ANY LEFT OVER MARGINAL SCA
SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...FINE BOATING WEATHER AS WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP
WINDS/SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS ALONG WITH GOOD VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  QUIET BOATING
WEATHER EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS.

SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.  MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE WITH AN
APPROACHING FRONT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...FRANK/RLG
MARINE...FRANK/RLG




000
FXUS61 KOKX 290751 CCA
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
351 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE JUST OFF THE
COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES PASS ACROSS. A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
WAVES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND ALONG THE
COAST...AND REMAIN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DRY AIRMASS BUILDS IN TODAY...OTHERWISE THERE WOULD BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR A FEW TSTMS WITH LOW HEIGHTS AND JULY SUN. PW/S
ONLY AROUND 60 PERCENT OF NORMAL...SO HAVE KEPT THE DRY FCST
GOING. TEMPS WILL HIT CONVECTIVE SO SCT TO OCNL BKN CU FOR THE
AFTN.

THE FAIR WX CLOUDS BEGIN TO DISSIPATE TNGT...BUT IT COULD BE A
SIMILAR SCENARIO TO WHAT IS GOING ON ACROSS OH AND PA WITH
LINGERING MOISTURE TRAPPED IN THE 4-7K FT RANGE.

TEMPS TODAY CLOSE TO GMOS AND TNGT CLOSER TO THE MET.

MDT RISK FOR RIPS TODAY ON THE OCEAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS PUT OUT SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PCPN WED...BUT THE TIME HEIGHTS
INDICATE GENERAL SUBSIDENCE WHICH WOULD TEND TO LIMIT VERTICAL
DEVELOPMENT AND INHIBIT ANY TRIGGER. AS A RESULT HAVE ONLY
INCLUDED ISOLD SPRINKLES ACROSS THE INTERIOR. INCREASING MOISTURE
APPEARS TO COME IN TOO LATE TO COINCIDE WITH PEAK HEATING TO HAVE
ANY SUBSTANTIAL INFLUENCE ON INSTABILITY ATTM. CLOUD COVER
ADJUSTED UPWARD TO SCT-BKN WITH TEMPS AGAIN ABV CONVECTIVE. TEMPS
CLOSE TO GMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A CLOSED LOW OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC WILL DOMINATE FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK. A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PIVOTING AROUND THIS
LOW COULD TRIGGER AN ISOLD LATE DAY SHOWER ACROSS THE INTERIOR ON
THU. COULD ALSO SEE SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS AGAIN FRI AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING WITH ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE AND GREATER INSTABILITY.

AS THE CANADIAN CLOSED LOW WEAKENS OVER THE WEEKEND...A PORTION WILL
DROP INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY...WHILE AN UPPER HIGH
STRENGTHENS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE STRENGTHENING UPPER HIGH
WILL PUSH AN OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE BACK TOWARD THE COAST...WHILE THE
INLAND TROUGH INDUCES WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG IT AND/OR
TRIGGERS SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION. ECMWF AND GGEM ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH THIS SCENARIO THAN THE GFS...BUT DIFFER ON TIMING. ATTM DECIDED
TO INCORPORATE ASPECTS OF BOTH INTO THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME
WITH SOME DIURNAL FLUCTUATION...WITH CHANCE POP SAT INTO SAT EVENING
AND AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

THE TROUGH TO THE WEST IS FCST TO BEGIN SHEARING OUT TO THE NE LATE
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...KICKING THE OFFSHORE FRONTAL
ZONE TO THE EAST. AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES AND INTERACTS WITH A
TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS...COULD SEE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS/TSTMS MON AFTERNOON/EVENING.

TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR AVG THU-FRI...THEN A LITTLE BELOW AVG THIS
WEEKEND VIA CLOUD COVER AND GREATER POP...THEN RETURNING TO NEAR AVG
ON MON.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL FOR TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.

VFR. LIGHT WINDS TODAY WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES PROBABLE FOR AT
LEAST KJFK/KISP/KBDR/KGON.

..NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE TIMING COULD BE OFF BY AN HOUR IN
EITHER DIRECTION.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE IF SEA BREEZE DOES NOT
MAKE IT AS QUICKLY AS FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTED AT KEWR BUT
AMENDMENTS MAY BE NECESSARY IF FORECAST CHANGES.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE TIMING MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR IN
EITHER DIRECTION.


.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...VFR.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM KBDR TO KFRG.
VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS/TSTORMS.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TODAY. WAVES HAVE BEEN
DECREASED BY 1/2 FT FROM WAVEWATCH ON THE OCEAN. RETAINED THE SCA
EXPIRATION TIMING OF 11 AM BASED ON THIS FCST DATA AS WELL AS
CURRENT TRENDS. WIND AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS TNGT AND WED WITH
HIPRES BUILDING OVER THE WATERS.

CONDS SHOULD REMAIN QUIET WED NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT. SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR CONDS ON THE OCEAN TO APPROACH SCA LEVELS DEPENDING ON POSITION
OF AN OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE AND TIMING OF ANY ASSOCIATED WEAK WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN IS EXPECTED THRU FRI. PARTS OF THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST...HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN THIS WEEKEND...DEPENDING ON THE POSITION OF AN OFFSHORE
FRONTAL ZONE AND TIMING OF ANY ASSOCIATED WEAK WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE. THIS POTENTIAL IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY...SO IT IS TOO
EARLY TO OFFER SPECIFIC FORECAST DETAILS OR TO MENTION IN HWO.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ350-
     353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...LN
MARINE...JMC/GOODMAN
HYDROLOGY...JMC/GOODMAN








000
FXUS61 KOKX 290751 CCA
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
351 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE JUST OFF THE
COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES PASS ACROSS. A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
WAVES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND ALONG THE
COAST...AND REMAIN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DRY AIRMASS BUILDS IN TODAY...OTHERWISE THERE WOULD BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR A FEW TSTMS WITH LOW HEIGHTS AND JULY SUN. PW/S
ONLY AROUND 60 PERCENT OF NORMAL...SO HAVE KEPT THE DRY FCST
GOING. TEMPS WILL HIT CONVECTIVE SO SCT TO OCNL BKN CU FOR THE
AFTN.

THE FAIR WX CLOUDS BEGIN TO DISSIPATE TNGT...BUT IT COULD BE A
SIMILAR SCENARIO TO WHAT IS GOING ON ACROSS OH AND PA WITH
LINGERING MOISTURE TRAPPED IN THE 4-7K FT RANGE.

TEMPS TODAY CLOSE TO GMOS AND TNGT CLOSER TO THE MET.

MDT RISK FOR RIPS TODAY ON THE OCEAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS PUT OUT SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PCPN WED...BUT THE TIME HEIGHTS
INDICATE GENERAL SUBSIDENCE WHICH WOULD TEND TO LIMIT VERTICAL
DEVELOPMENT AND INHIBIT ANY TRIGGER. AS A RESULT HAVE ONLY
INCLUDED ISOLD SPRINKLES ACROSS THE INTERIOR. INCREASING MOISTURE
APPEARS TO COME IN TOO LATE TO COINCIDE WITH PEAK HEATING TO HAVE
ANY SUBSTANTIAL INFLUENCE ON INSTABILITY ATTM. CLOUD COVER
ADJUSTED UPWARD TO SCT-BKN WITH TEMPS AGAIN ABV CONVECTIVE. TEMPS
CLOSE TO GMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A CLOSED LOW OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC WILL DOMINATE FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK. A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PIVOTING AROUND THIS
LOW COULD TRIGGER AN ISOLD LATE DAY SHOWER ACROSS THE INTERIOR ON
THU. COULD ALSO SEE SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS AGAIN FRI AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING WITH ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE AND GREATER INSTABILITY.

AS THE CANADIAN CLOSED LOW WEAKENS OVER THE WEEKEND...A PORTION WILL
DROP INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY...WHILE AN UPPER HIGH
STRENGTHENS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE STRENGTHENING UPPER HIGH
WILL PUSH AN OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE BACK TOWARD THE COAST...WHILE THE
INLAND TROUGH INDUCES WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG IT AND/OR
TRIGGERS SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION. ECMWF AND GGEM ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH THIS SCENARIO THAN THE GFS...BUT DIFFER ON TIMING. ATTM DECIDED
TO INCORPORATE ASPECTS OF BOTH INTO THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME
WITH SOME DIURNAL FLUCTUATION...WITH CHANCE POP SAT INTO SAT EVENING
AND AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

THE TROUGH TO THE WEST IS FCST TO BEGIN SHEARING OUT TO THE NE LATE
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...KICKING THE OFFSHORE FRONTAL
ZONE TO THE EAST. AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES AND INTERACTS WITH A
TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS...COULD SEE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS/TSTMS MON AFTERNOON/EVENING.

TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR AVG THU-FRI...THEN A LITTLE BELOW AVG THIS
WEEKEND VIA CLOUD COVER AND GREATER POP...THEN RETURNING TO NEAR AVG
ON MON.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL FOR TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.

VFR. LIGHT WINDS TODAY WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES PROBABLE FOR AT
LEAST KJFK/KISP/KBDR/KGON.

..NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE TIMING COULD BE OFF BY AN HOUR IN
EITHER DIRECTION.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE IF SEA BREEZE DOES NOT
MAKE IT AS QUICKLY AS FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTED AT KEWR BUT
AMENDMENTS MAY BE NECESSARY IF FORECAST CHANGES.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE TIMING MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR IN
EITHER DIRECTION.


.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...VFR.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM KBDR TO KFRG.
VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS/TSTORMS.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TODAY. WAVES HAVE BEEN
DECREASED BY 1/2 FT FROM WAVEWATCH ON THE OCEAN. RETAINED THE SCA
EXPIRATION TIMING OF 11 AM BASED ON THIS FCST DATA AS WELL AS
CURRENT TRENDS. WIND AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS TNGT AND WED WITH
HIPRES BUILDING OVER THE WATERS.

CONDS SHOULD REMAIN QUIET WED NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT. SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR CONDS ON THE OCEAN TO APPROACH SCA LEVELS DEPENDING ON POSITION
OF AN OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE AND TIMING OF ANY ASSOCIATED WEAK WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN IS EXPECTED THRU FRI. PARTS OF THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST...HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN THIS WEEKEND...DEPENDING ON THE POSITION OF AN OFFSHORE
FRONTAL ZONE AND TIMING OF ANY ASSOCIATED WEAK WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE. THIS POTENTIAL IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY...SO IT IS TOO
EARLY TO OFFER SPECIFIC FORECAST DETAILS OR TO MENTION IN HWO.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ350-
     353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...LN
MARINE...JMC/GOODMAN
HYDROLOGY...JMC/GOODMAN








000
FXUS61 KOKX 290751 CCA
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
351 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE JUST OFF THE
COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES PASS ACROSS. A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
WAVES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND ALONG THE
COAST...AND REMAIN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DRY AIRMASS BUILDS IN TODAY...OTHERWISE THERE WOULD BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR A FEW TSTMS WITH LOW HEIGHTS AND JULY SUN. PW/S
ONLY AROUND 60 PERCENT OF NORMAL...SO HAVE KEPT THE DRY FCST
GOING. TEMPS WILL HIT CONVECTIVE SO SCT TO OCNL BKN CU FOR THE
AFTN.

THE FAIR WX CLOUDS BEGIN TO DISSIPATE TNGT...BUT IT COULD BE A
SIMILAR SCENARIO TO WHAT IS GOING ON ACROSS OH AND PA WITH
LINGERING MOISTURE TRAPPED IN THE 4-7K FT RANGE.

TEMPS TODAY CLOSE TO GMOS AND TNGT CLOSER TO THE MET.

MDT RISK FOR RIPS TODAY ON THE OCEAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS PUT OUT SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PCPN WED...BUT THE TIME HEIGHTS
INDICATE GENERAL SUBSIDENCE WHICH WOULD TEND TO LIMIT VERTICAL
DEVELOPMENT AND INHIBIT ANY TRIGGER. AS A RESULT HAVE ONLY
INCLUDED ISOLD SPRINKLES ACROSS THE INTERIOR. INCREASING MOISTURE
APPEARS TO COME IN TOO LATE TO COINCIDE WITH PEAK HEATING TO HAVE
ANY SUBSTANTIAL INFLUENCE ON INSTABILITY ATTM. CLOUD COVER
ADJUSTED UPWARD TO SCT-BKN WITH TEMPS AGAIN ABV CONVECTIVE. TEMPS
CLOSE TO GMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A CLOSED LOW OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC WILL DOMINATE FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK. A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PIVOTING AROUND THIS
LOW COULD TRIGGER AN ISOLD LATE DAY SHOWER ACROSS THE INTERIOR ON
THU. COULD ALSO SEE SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS AGAIN FRI AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING WITH ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE AND GREATER INSTABILITY.

AS THE CANADIAN CLOSED LOW WEAKENS OVER THE WEEKEND...A PORTION WILL
DROP INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY...WHILE AN UPPER HIGH
STRENGTHENS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE STRENGTHENING UPPER HIGH
WILL PUSH AN OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE BACK TOWARD THE COAST...WHILE THE
INLAND TROUGH INDUCES WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG IT AND/OR
TRIGGERS SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION. ECMWF AND GGEM ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH THIS SCENARIO THAN THE GFS...BUT DIFFER ON TIMING. ATTM DECIDED
TO INCORPORATE ASPECTS OF BOTH INTO THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME
WITH SOME DIURNAL FLUCTUATION...WITH CHANCE POP SAT INTO SAT EVENING
AND AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

THE TROUGH TO THE WEST IS FCST TO BEGIN SHEARING OUT TO THE NE LATE
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...KICKING THE OFFSHORE FRONTAL
ZONE TO THE EAST. AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES AND INTERACTS WITH A
TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS...COULD SEE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS/TSTMS MON AFTERNOON/EVENING.

TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR AVG THU-FRI...THEN A LITTLE BELOW AVG THIS
WEEKEND VIA CLOUD COVER AND GREATER POP...THEN RETURNING TO NEAR AVG
ON MON.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL FOR TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.

VFR. LIGHT WINDS TODAY WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES PROBABLE FOR AT
LEAST KJFK/KISP/KBDR/KGON.

..NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE TIMING COULD BE OFF BY AN HOUR IN
EITHER DIRECTION.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE IF SEA BREEZE DOES NOT
MAKE IT AS QUICKLY AS FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTED AT KEWR BUT
AMENDMENTS MAY BE NECESSARY IF FORECAST CHANGES.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE TIMING MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR IN
EITHER DIRECTION.


.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...VFR.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM KBDR TO KFRG.
VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS/TSTORMS.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TODAY. WAVES HAVE BEEN
DECREASED BY 1/2 FT FROM WAVEWATCH ON THE OCEAN. RETAINED THE SCA
EXPIRATION TIMING OF 11 AM BASED ON THIS FCST DATA AS WELL AS
CURRENT TRENDS. WIND AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS TNGT AND WED WITH
HIPRES BUILDING OVER THE WATERS.

CONDS SHOULD REMAIN QUIET WED NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT. SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR CONDS ON THE OCEAN TO APPROACH SCA LEVELS DEPENDING ON POSITION
OF AN OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE AND TIMING OF ANY ASSOCIATED WEAK WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN IS EXPECTED THRU FRI. PARTS OF THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST...HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN THIS WEEKEND...DEPENDING ON THE POSITION OF AN OFFSHORE
FRONTAL ZONE AND TIMING OF ANY ASSOCIATED WEAK WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE. THIS POTENTIAL IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY...SO IT IS TOO
EARLY TO OFFER SPECIFIC FORECAST DETAILS OR TO MENTION IN HWO.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ350-
     353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...LN
MARINE...JMC/GOODMAN
HYDROLOGY...JMC/GOODMAN








000
FXUS61 KOKX 290751 CCA
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
351 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE JUST OFF THE
COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES PASS ACROSS. A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
WAVES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND ALONG THE
COAST...AND REMAIN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DRY AIRMASS BUILDS IN TODAY...OTHERWISE THERE WOULD BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR A FEW TSTMS WITH LOW HEIGHTS AND JULY SUN. PW/S
ONLY AROUND 60 PERCENT OF NORMAL...SO HAVE KEPT THE DRY FCST
GOING. TEMPS WILL HIT CONVECTIVE SO SCT TO OCNL BKN CU FOR THE
AFTN.

THE FAIR WX CLOUDS BEGIN TO DISSIPATE TNGT...BUT IT COULD BE A
SIMILAR SCENARIO TO WHAT IS GOING ON ACROSS OH AND PA WITH
LINGERING MOISTURE TRAPPED IN THE 4-7K FT RANGE.

TEMPS TODAY CLOSE TO GMOS AND TNGT CLOSER TO THE MET.

MDT RISK FOR RIPS TODAY ON THE OCEAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS PUT OUT SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PCPN WED...BUT THE TIME HEIGHTS
INDICATE GENERAL SUBSIDENCE WHICH WOULD TEND TO LIMIT VERTICAL
DEVELOPMENT AND INHIBIT ANY TRIGGER. AS A RESULT HAVE ONLY
INCLUDED ISOLD SPRINKLES ACROSS THE INTERIOR. INCREASING MOISTURE
APPEARS TO COME IN TOO LATE TO COINCIDE WITH PEAK HEATING TO HAVE
ANY SUBSTANTIAL INFLUENCE ON INSTABILITY ATTM. CLOUD COVER
ADJUSTED UPWARD TO SCT-BKN WITH TEMPS AGAIN ABV CONVECTIVE. TEMPS
CLOSE TO GMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A CLOSED LOW OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC WILL DOMINATE FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK. A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PIVOTING AROUND THIS
LOW COULD TRIGGER AN ISOLD LATE DAY SHOWER ACROSS THE INTERIOR ON
THU. COULD ALSO SEE SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS AGAIN FRI AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING WITH ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE AND GREATER INSTABILITY.

AS THE CANADIAN CLOSED LOW WEAKENS OVER THE WEEKEND...A PORTION WILL
DROP INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY...WHILE AN UPPER HIGH
STRENGTHENS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE STRENGTHENING UPPER HIGH
WILL PUSH AN OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE BACK TOWARD THE COAST...WHILE THE
INLAND TROUGH INDUCES WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG IT AND/OR
TRIGGERS SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION. ECMWF AND GGEM ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH THIS SCENARIO THAN THE GFS...BUT DIFFER ON TIMING. ATTM DECIDED
TO INCORPORATE ASPECTS OF BOTH INTO THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME
WITH SOME DIURNAL FLUCTUATION...WITH CHANCE POP SAT INTO SAT EVENING
AND AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

THE TROUGH TO THE WEST IS FCST TO BEGIN SHEARING OUT TO THE NE LATE
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...KICKING THE OFFSHORE FRONTAL
ZONE TO THE EAST. AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES AND INTERACTS WITH A
TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS...COULD SEE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS/TSTMS MON AFTERNOON/EVENING.

TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR AVG THU-FRI...THEN A LITTLE BELOW AVG THIS
WEEKEND VIA CLOUD COVER AND GREATER POP...THEN RETURNING TO NEAR AVG
ON MON.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL FOR TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.

VFR. LIGHT WINDS TODAY WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES PROBABLE FOR AT
LEAST KJFK/KISP/KBDR/KGON.

..NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE TIMING COULD BE OFF BY AN HOUR IN
EITHER DIRECTION.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE IF SEA BREEZE DOES NOT
MAKE IT AS QUICKLY AS FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTED AT KEWR BUT
AMENDMENTS MAY BE NECESSARY IF FORECAST CHANGES.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE TIMING MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR IN
EITHER DIRECTION.


.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...VFR.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM KBDR TO KFRG.
VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS/TSTORMS.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TODAY. WAVES HAVE BEEN
DECREASED BY 1/2 FT FROM WAVEWATCH ON THE OCEAN. RETAINED THE SCA
EXPIRATION TIMING OF 11 AM BASED ON THIS FCST DATA AS WELL AS
CURRENT TRENDS. WIND AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS TNGT AND WED WITH
HIPRES BUILDING OVER THE WATERS.

CONDS SHOULD REMAIN QUIET WED NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT. SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR CONDS ON THE OCEAN TO APPROACH SCA LEVELS DEPENDING ON POSITION
OF AN OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE AND TIMING OF ANY ASSOCIATED WEAK WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN IS EXPECTED THRU FRI. PARTS OF THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST...HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN THIS WEEKEND...DEPENDING ON THE POSITION OF AN OFFSHORE
FRONTAL ZONE AND TIMING OF ANY ASSOCIATED WEAK WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE. THIS POTENTIAL IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY...SO IT IS TOO
EARLY TO OFFER SPECIFIC FORECAST DETAILS OR TO MENTION IN HWO.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ350-
     353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...LN
MARINE...JMC/GOODMAN
HYDROLOGY...JMC/GOODMAN








000
FXUS61 KBOX 290747
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
347 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

MAINLY DRY AND LESS HUMID WEATHER FOLLOWS TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A
COLD FRONT SWEEPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. A FEW
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE THU AND FRI...BUT
MOST OF THE TIME WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER.  A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN
IS POSSIBLE SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND IF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS CLOSE
ENOUGH TO THE COAST...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

***BEAUTIFUL WEATHER TODAY WITH PLEASANT TEMPS AND LOW HUMIDITY***

SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE BY DAYBREAK.
OTHERWISE...ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL
RESULT IN COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS ALONG WITH LOW HUMIDITY TODAY.
UNDER A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE...HIGH TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...

A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE FOR LATE JULY WILL COMBINE WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES/LIGHT WINDS...RESULTING IN AN EXCELLENT NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING.  LOW TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 50S...TO THE LOWER 60S IN
THE URBAN HEAT ISLANDS OF BOSTON/PROVIDENCE.  WE MAY EVEN SEE A FEW
UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORMALLY COOLEST OUTLYING LOCATIONS OF
SOUTHWEST NH/WESTERN MA!  SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE IN
THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS...BUT NOTHING WIDESPREAD IS
ANTICIPATED.

WEDNESDAY...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.  THIS
WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.  HIGHS SHOULD
MAINLY BE IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 WITH LOW HUMIDITY.  A MIXTURE OF
CLOUDS AND SUN ANTICIPATED AS A MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION.  MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED...BUT THE SHORTWAVE
COULD RESULT IN A PASSING SPRINKLE OR TWO.  WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH A
WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING EAST OF THE BENCHMARK...BUT AT
THIS TIME APPEARS IT SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO SPARE EVEN THE
CAPE/ISLANDS ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* POSSIBLY UNSETTLED AND MORE HUMID THIS WEEKEND

THURSDAY THRU FRIDAY...

LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST EARLY THIS PERIOD
HOWEVER THE MEAN MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS FAR ENOUGH EAST TO KEEP
THE DEEP PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE OFFSHORE. THUS MAINLY DRY
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL WED THRU FRI. HOWEVER GIVEN COOL TEMPS ALOFT
COMBINED WITH CYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW CAN/T RULE OUT A LOW RISK OF A
FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS/T-STORMS INLAND.

AS FOR TEMPS...GIVEN THE BELOW NORMAL 500 HEIGHTS EXPECT LATE
JULY/EARLY AUG SUN ANGLE TO PROVIDE MILD DAYS BUT DEW PTS IN THE 50S
WILL YIELD COMFORTABLY COOL NIGHTS.

THIS WEEKEND...

NORTHEAST TROUGH RETROGRADES TO THE MS VLY THIS WEEKEND. THIS OPENS
THE DOOR FOR TROPICAL MOISTURE AND THE OFFSHORE FRONT TO BACK INTO
NEW ENGLAND...ESPECIALLY EASTERN MA AND RI. THIS WILL INCREASE THE
RISK FOR SHOWERS AND T-STORMS ALONG WITH MORE HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MARGINAL MVFR CIGS ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR
NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY DAYBREAK.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR CONDITIONS OTHER THAN
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.  AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  EXPECT AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST SEA
BREEZE TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE THRU
FRI THEN LOWER CONFIDENCE INTO THIS WEEKEND.

VFR EXPECT A LOW RISK FOR PATCHY IFR IN EARLY MORNING FOG EACH DAY.
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSTMS MAINLY WEST OF
MHT AND ORH. BY SAT CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR COMING ONSHORE INTO EASTERN
MA AND RI ALONG WITH THREAT OF SHOWERS. MARGINAL VFR-MVFR LIKELY
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LEFT OVER SWELL WILL ALLOW SCA SEAS TO
LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS AND
WESTERN SOUNDS. OTHERWISE...WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
LEVELS ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION.

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  ANY LEFT OVER MARGINAL SCA
SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...FINE BOATING WEATHER AS WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP
WINDS/SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS ALONG WITH GOOD VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS WED NIGHT THRU FRI THEN SE WINDS
POSSIBLY INCREASING SAT PENDING STRENGTH AND TRACK OF FRONTAL WAVE
MOVING NE FROM THE MID ATLC. FAIR VSBY WED THRU FRI THEN POSSIBLY
LOWERING SAT IN SHOWERS AND FOG.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...FRANK/NOCERA
MARINE...FRANK/NOCERA




000
FXUS61 KOKX 290746
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
346 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE JUST OFF THE
COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES PASS ACROSS. A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
WAVES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND ALONG THE
COAST...AND REMAIN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DRY AIRMASS BUILDS IN TODAY...OTHERWISE THERE WOULD BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR A FEW TSTMS WITH LOW HEIGHTS AND JULY SUN. PW/S
ONLY AROUND 60 PERCENT OF NORMAL...SO HAVE KEPT THE DRY FCST
GOING. TEMPS WILL HIT CONVECTIVE SO SCT TO OCNL BKN CU FOR THE
AFTN.

THE FAIR WX CLOUDS BEGIN TO DISSIPATE TNGT...BUT IT COULD BE A
SIMILAR SCENARIO TO WHAT IS GOING ON ACROSS OH AND PA WITH WITH
LINGERING MOISTURE TRAPPED IN THE 4-7K FT RANGE.

TEMPS TODAY CLOSE TO GMOS AND TNGT CLOSER TO THE MET.

MDT RISK FOR RIPS TODAY ON THE OCEAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS PUT OUT SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PCPN WED...BUT THE TIME HEIGHTS
INDICATE GENERAL SUBSIDENCE WHICH WOULD TEND TO LIMIT VERTICAL
DEVELOPMENT AND INHIBIT ANY TRIGGER. AS A RESULT HAVE ONLY
INCLUDED ISOLD SPRINKLES ACROSS THE INTERIOR. INCREASING MOISTURE
APPEARS TO COME IN TOO LATE TO COINCIDE WITH PEAK HEATING TO HAVE
ANY SUBSTANTIAL INFLUENCE ON INSTABILITY ATTM. CLOUD COVER
ADJUSTED UPWARD TO SCT-BKN WITH TEMPS AGAIN ABV CONVECTIVE. TEMPS
CLOSE TO GMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A CLOSED LOW OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC WILL DOMINATE FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK. A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PIVOTING AROUND THIS
LOW COULD TRIGGER AN ISOLD LATE DAY SHOWER ACROSS THE INTERIOR ON
THU. COULD ALSO SEE SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS AGAIN FRI AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING WITH ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE AND GREATER INSTABILITY.

AS THE CANADIAN CLOSED LOW WEAKENS OVER THE WEEKEND...A PORTION WILL
DROP INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY...WHILE AN UPPER HIGH
STRENGTHENS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE STRENGTHENING UPPER HIGH
WILL PUSH AN OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE BACK TOWARD THE COAST...WHILE THE
INLAND TROUGH INDUCES WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG IT AND/OR
TRIGGERS SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION. ECMWF AND GGEM ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH THIS SCENARIO THAN THE GFS...BUT DIFFER ON TIMING. ATTM DECIDED
TO INCORPORATE ASPECTS OF BOTH INTO THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME
WITH SOME DIURNAL FLUCTUATION...WITH CHANCE POP SAT INTO SAT EVENING
AND AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

THE TROUGH TO THE WEST IS FCST TO BEGIN SHEARING OUT TO THE NE LATE
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...KICKING THE OFFSHORE FRONTAL
ZONE TO THE EAST. AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES AND INTERACTS WITH A
TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS...COULD SEE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS/TSTMS MON AFTERNOON/EVENING.

TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR AVG THU-FRI...THEN A LITTLE BELOW AVG THIS
WEEKEND VIA CLOUD COVER AND GREATER POP...THEN RETURNING TO NEAR AVG
ON MON.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL FOR TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.

VFR. LIGHT WINDS TODAY WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES PROBABLE FOR AT
LEAST KJFK/KISP/KBDR/KGON.

..NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE TIMING COULD BE OFF BY AN HOUR IN
EITHER DIRECTION.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE IF SEA BREEZE DOES NOT
MAKE IT AS QUICKLY AS FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTED AT KEWR BUT
AMENDMENTS MAY BE NECESSARY IF FORECAST CHANGES.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE TIMING MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR IN
EITHER DIRECTION.


.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...VFR.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM KBDR TO KFRG.
VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS/TSTORMS.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TODAY. WAVES HAVE BEEN
DECREASED BY 1/2 FT FROM WAVEWATCH ON THE OCEAN. RETAINED THE SCA
EXPIRATION TIMING OF 11 AM BASED ON THIS FCST DATA AS WELL AS
CURRENT TRENDS. WIND AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS TNGT AND WED WITH
HIPRES BUILDING OVER THE WATERS.

CONDS SHOULD REMAIN QUIET WED NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT. SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR CONDS ON THE OCEAN TO APPROACH SCA LEVELS DEPENDING ON POSITION
OF AN OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE AND TIMING OF ANY ASSOCIATED WEAK WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN IS EXPECTED THRU FRI. PARTS OF THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST...HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN THIS WEEKEND...DEPENDING ON THE POSITION OF AN OFFSHORE
FRONTAL ZONE AND TIMING OF ANY ASSOCIATED WEAK WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE. THIS POTENTIAL IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY...SO IT IS TOO
EARLY TO OFFER SPECIFIC FORECAST DETAILS OR TO MENTION IN HWO.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ350-
     353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...LN
MARINE...JMC/GOODMAN
HYDROLOGY...JMC/GOODMAN






000
FXUS61 KOKX 290746
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
346 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE JUST OFF THE
COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES PASS ACROSS. A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
WAVES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND ALONG THE
COAST...AND REMAIN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DRY AIRMASS BUILDS IN TODAY...OTHERWISE THERE WOULD BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR A FEW TSTMS WITH LOW HEIGHTS AND JULY SUN. PW/S
ONLY AROUND 60 PERCENT OF NORMAL...SO HAVE KEPT THE DRY FCST
GOING. TEMPS WILL HIT CONVECTIVE SO SCT TO OCNL BKN CU FOR THE
AFTN.

THE FAIR WX CLOUDS BEGIN TO DISSIPATE TNGT...BUT IT COULD BE A
SIMILAR SCENARIO TO WHAT IS GOING ON ACROSS OH AND PA WITH WITH
LINGERING MOISTURE TRAPPED IN THE 4-7K FT RANGE.

TEMPS TODAY CLOSE TO GMOS AND TNGT CLOSER TO THE MET.

MDT RISK FOR RIPS TODAY ON THE OCEAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS PUT OUT SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PCPN WED...BUT THE TIME HEIGHTS
INDICATE GENERAL SUBSIDENCE WHICH WOULD TEND TO LIMIT VERTICAL
DEVELOPMENT AND INHIBIT ANY TRIGGER. AS A RESULT HAVE ONLY
INCLUDED ISOLD SPRINKLES ACROSS THE INTERIOR. INCREASING MOISTURE
APPEARS TO COME IN TOO LATE TO COINCIDE WITH PEAK HEATING TO HAVE
ANY SUBSTANTIAL INFLUENCE ON INSTABILITY ATTM. CLOUD COVER
ADJUSTED UPWARD TO SCT-BKN WITH TEMPS AGAIN ABV CONVECTIVE. TEMPS
CLOSE TO GMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A CLOSED LOW OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC WILL DOMINATE FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK. A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PIVOTING AROUND THIS
LOW COULD TRIGGER AN ISOLD LATE DAY SHOWER ACROSS THE INTERIOR ON
THU. COULD ALSO SEE SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS AGAIN FRI AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING WITH ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE AND GREATER INSTABILITY.

AS THE CANADIAN CLOSED LOW WEAKENS OVER THE WEEKEND...A PORTION WILL
DROP INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY...WHILE AN UPPER HIGH
STRENGTHENS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE STRENGTHENING UPPER HIGH
WILL PUSH AN OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE BACK TOWARD THE COAST...WHILE THE
INLAND TROUGH INDUCES WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG IT AND/OR
TRIGGERS SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION. ECMWF AND GGEM ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH THIS SCENARIO THAN THE GFS...BUT DIFFER ON TIMING. ATTM DECIDED
TO INCORPORATE ASPECTS OF BOTH INTO THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME
WITH SOME DIURNAL FLUCTUATION...WITH CHANCE POP SAT INTO SAT EVENING
AND AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

THE TROUGH TO THE WEST IS FCST TO BEGIN SHEARING OUT TO THE NE LATE
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...KICKING THE OFFSHORE FRONTAL
ZONE TO THE EAST. AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES AND INTERACTS WITH A
TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS...COULD SEE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS/TSTMS MON AFTERNOON/EVENING.

TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR AVG THU-FRI...THEN A LITTLE BELOW AVG THIS
WEEKEND VIA CLOUD COVER AND GREATER POP...THEN RETURNING TO NEAR AVG
ON MON.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL FOR TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.

VFR. LIGHT WINDS TODAY WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES PROBABLE FOR AT
LEAST KJFK/KISP/KBDR/KGON.

..NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE TIMING COULD BE OFF BY AN HOUR IN
EITHER DIRECTION.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE IF SEA BREEZE DOES NOT
MAKE IT AS QUICKLY AS FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTED AT KEWR BUT
AMENDMENTS MAY BE NECESSARY IF FORECAST CHANGES.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE TIMING MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR IN
EITHER DIRECTION.


.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...VFR.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM KBDR TO KFRG.
VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS/TSTORMS.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TODAY. WAVES HAVE BEEN
DECREASED BY 1/2 FT FROM WAVEWATCH ON THE OCEAN. RETAINED THE SCA
EXPIRATION TIMING OF 11 AM BASED ON THIS FCST DATA AS WELL AS
CURRENT TRENDS. WIND AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS TNGT AND WED WITH
HIPRES BUILDING OVER THE WATERS.

CONDS SHOULD REMAIN QUIET WED NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT. SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR CONDS ON THE OCEAN TO APPROACH SCA LEVELS DEPENDING ON POSITION
OF AN OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE AND TIMING OF ANY ASSOCIATED WEAK WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN IS EXPECTED THRU FRI. PARTS OF THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST...HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN THIS WEEKEND...DEPENDING ON THE POSITION OF AN OFFSHORE
FRONTAL ZONE AND TIMING OF ANY ASSOCIATED WEAK WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE. THIS POTENTIAL IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY...SO IT IS TOO
EARLY TO OFFER SPECIFIC FORECAST DETAILS OR TO MENTION IN HWO.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ350-
     353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...LN
MARINE...JMC/GOODMAN
HYDROLOGY...JMC/GOODMAN







000
FXUS61 KBOX 290550
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
150 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY AND LESS HUMID WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
WORK WEEK. THIS WEEKEND AN OFFSHORE FRONT MAY BUILD BACK INTO NEW
ENGLAND ALONG WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE
RISK OF SHOWERS AND MORE HUMID WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

150 AM UPDATE...

A BRIEF SPRINKLE OR TWO REMAINS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHWEST
MA/SOUTHWEST NH FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO.  OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER
THROUGH DAYBREAK AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION.
LOW TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE MIDDLE 60S BY
DAYBREAK.  APPEARS THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH WIND TO PREVENT FOG IN
MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY...RESULTING
IN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. NOT MUCH OF AIRMASS CHANGE SO HIGHS ONCE
AGAIN SHOULD TOP OFF IN 70S TO AROUND 80 BUT WITH SIGNIFICANTLY
LOWER HUMIDITY. WEAK GRADIENT SUPPORTS AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ALONG
BOTH COASTS. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAINLY DRY/QUIET AND SEASONABLE WEATHER WED THRU FRI
* POSSIBLY UNSETTLED AND MORE HUMID THIS WEEKEND

WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY...

LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST EARLY THIS PERIOD
HOWEVER THE MEAN MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS FAR ENOUGH EAST TO KEEP
THE DEEP PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE OFFSHORE. THUS MAINLY DRY
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL WED THRU FRI. HOWEVER GIVEN COOL TEMPS ALOFT
COMBINED WITH CYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW CAN/T RULE OUT A LOW RISK OF A
FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS/T-STORMS INLAND.

AS FOR TEMPS...GIVEN THE BELOW NORMAL 500 HEIGHTS EXPECT LATE
JULY/EARLY AUG SUN ANGLE TO PROVIDE MILD DAYS BUT DEW PTS IN THE 50S
WILL YIELD COMFORTABLY COOL NIGHTS.

THIS WEEKEND...

NORTHEAST TROUGH RETROGRADES TO THE MS VLY THIS WEEKEND. THIS OPENS
THE DOOR FOR TROPICAL MOISTURE AND THE OFFSHORE FRONT TO BACK INTO
NEW ENGLAND...ESPECIALLY EASTERN MA AND RI. THIS WILL INCREASE THE
RISK FOR SHOWERS AND T-STORMS ALONG WITH MORE HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MARGINAL MVFR CIGS ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR
NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY DAYBREAK.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR CONDITIONS OTHER THAN
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.  AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  EXPECT AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST SEA
BREEZE TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE THRU
FRI THEN LOWER CONFIDENCE INTO THIS WEEKEND.

VFR EXPECT A LOW RISK FOR PATCHY IFR IN EARLY MORNING FOG EACH DAY.
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSTMS MAINLY WEST OF
MHT AND ORH. BY SAT CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR COMING ONSHORE INTO EASTERN
MA AND RI ALONG WITH THREAT OF SHOWERS. MARGINAL VFR-MVFR LIKELY
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE NIGHT. MAIN CONCERN IS FOR ROUGH
SEAS ON SOUTH COASTAL WATERS...WHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES
INTO TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES WATERS TONIGHT...BUT
EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY DENSE FOG...AT LEAST EARLY
TONIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES LATE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE WATERS TUESDAY...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES.
SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDE OFFSHORE.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS WED THRU FRI THEN SE WINDS POSSIBLY
INCREASING SAT PENDING STRENGTH AND TRACK OF FRONTAL WAVE MOVING NE
FROM THE MID ATLC. FAIR VSBY WED THRU FRI THEN POSSIBLY LOWERING SAT
IN SHOWERS AND FOG.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS
     MORNING FOR RIZ008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS
     MORNING FOR ANZ235-237-250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/NOCERA
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...FRANK/NOCERA
MARINE...BELK/NOCERA



000
FXUS61 KBOX 290550
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
150 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY AND LESS HUMID WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
WORK WEEK. THIS WEEKEND AN OFFSHORE FRONT MAY BUILD BACK INTO NEW
ENGLAND ALONG WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE
RISK OF SHOWERS AND MORE HUMID WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

150 AM UPDATE...

A BRIEF SPRINKLE OR TWO REMAINS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHWEST
MA/SOUTHWEST NH FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO.  OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER
THROUGH DAYBREAK AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION.
LOW TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE MIDDLE 60S BY
DAYBREAK.  APPEARS THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH WIND TO PREVENT FOG IN
MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY...RESULTING
IN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. NOT MUCH OF AIRMASS CHANGE SO HIGHS ONCE
AGAIN SHOULD TOP OFF IN 70S TO AROUND 80 BUT WITH SIGNIFICANTLY
LOWER HUMIDITY. WEAK GRADIENT SUPPORTS AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ALONG
BOTH COASTS. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAINLY DRY/QUIET AND SEASONABLE WEATHER WED THRU FRI
* POSSIBLY UNSETTLED AND MORE HUMID THIS WEEKEND

WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY...

LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST EARLY THIS PERIOD
HOWEVER THE MEAN MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS FAR ENOUGH EAST TO KEEP
THE DEEP PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE OFFSHORE. THUS MAINLY DRY
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL WED THRU FRI. HOWEVER GIVEN COOL TEMPS ALOFT
COMBINED WITH CYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW CAN/T RULE OUT A LOW RISK OF A
FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS/T-STORMS INLAND.

AS FOR TEMPS...GIVEN THE BELOW NORMAL 500 HEIGHTS EXPECT LATE
JULY/EARLY AUG SUN ANGLE TO PROVIDE MILD DAYS BUT DEW PTS IN THE 50S
WILL YIELD COMFORTABLY COOL NIGHTS.

THIS WEEKEND...

NORTHEAST TROUGH RETROGRADES TO THE MS VLY THIS WEEKEND. THIS OPENS
THE DOOR FOR TROPICAL MOISTURE AND THE OFFSHORE FRONT TO BACK INTO
NEW ENGLAND...ESPECIALLY EASTERN MA AND RI. THIS WILL INCREASE THE
RISK FOR SHOWERS AND T-STORMS ALONG WITH MORE HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MARGINAL MVFR CIGS ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR
NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY DAYBREAK.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR CONDITIONS OTHER THAN
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.  AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  EXPECT AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST SEA
BREEZE TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE THRU
FRI THEN LOWER CONFIDENCE INTO THIS WEEKEND.

VFR EXPECT A LOW RISK FOR PATCHY IFR IN EARLY MORNING FOG EACH DAY.
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSTMS MAINLY WEST OF
MHT AND ORH. BY SAT CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR COMING ONSHORE INTO EASTERN
MA AND RI ALONG WITH THREAT OF SHOWERS. MARGINAL VFR-MVFR LIKELY
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE NIGHT. MAIN CONCERN IS FOR ROUGH
SEAS ON SOUTH COASTAL WATERS...WHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES
INTO TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES WATERS TONIGHT...BUT
EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY DENSE FOG...AT LEAST EARLY
TONIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES LATE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE WATERS TUESDAY...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES.
SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDE OFFSHORE.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS WED THRU FRI THEN SE WINDS POSSIBLY
INCREASING SAT PENDING STRENGTH AND TRACK OF FRONTAL WAVE MOVING NE
FROM THE MID ATLC. FAIR VSBY WED THRU FRI THEN POSSIBLY LOWERING SAT
IN SHOWERS AND FOG.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS
     MORNING FOR RIZ008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS
     MORNING FOR ANZ235-237-250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/NOCERA
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...FRANK/NOCERA
MARINE...BELK/NOCERA



000
FXUS61 KBOX 290550
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
150 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY AND LESS HUMID WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
WORK WEEK. THIS WEEKEND AN OFFSHORE FRONT MAY BUILD BACK INTO NEW
ENGLAND ALONG WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE
RISK OF SHOWERS AND MORE HUMID WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

150 AM UPDATE...

A BRIEF SPRINKLE OR TWO REMAINS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHWEST
MA/SOUTHWEST NH FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO.  OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER
THROUGH DAYBREAK AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION.
LOW TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE MIDDLE 60S BY
DAYBREAK.  APPEARS THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH WIND TO PREVENT FOG IN
MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY...RESULTING
IN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. NOT MUCH OF AIRMASS CHANGE SO HIGHS ONCE
AGAIN SHOULD TOP OFF IN 70S TO AROUND 80 BUT WITH SIGNIFICANTLY
LOWER HUMIDITY. WEAK GRADIENT SUPPORTS AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ALONG
BOTH COASTS. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAINLY DRY/QUIET AND SEASONABLE WEATHER WED THRU FRI
* POSSIBLY UNSETTLED AND MORE HUMID THIS WEEKEND

WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY...

LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST EARLY THIS PERIOD
HOWEVER THE MEAN MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS FAR ENOUGH EAST TO KEEP
THE DEEP PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE OFFSHORE. THUS MAINLY DRY
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL WED THRU FRI. HOWEVER GIVEN COOL TEMPS ALOFT
COMBINED WITH CYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW CAN/T RULE OUT A LOW RISK OF A
FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS/T-STORMS INLAND.

AS FOR TEMPS...GIVEN THE BELOW NORMAL 500 HEIGHTS EXPECT LATE
JULY/EARLY AUG SUN ANGLE TO PROVIDE MILD DAYS BUT DEW PTS IN THE 50S
WILL YIELD COMFORTABLY COOL NIGHTS.

THIS WEEKEND...

NORTHEAST TROUGH RETROGRADES TO THE MS VLY THIS WEEKEND. THIS OPENS
THE DOOR FOR TROPICAL MOISTURE AND THE OFFSHORE FRONT TO BACK INTO
NEW ENGLAND...ESPECIALLY EASTERN MA AND RI. THIS WILL INCREASE THE
RISK FOR SHOWERS AND T-STORMS ALONG WITH MORE HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MARGINAL MVFR CIGS ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR
NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY DAYBREAK.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR CONDITIONS OTHER THAN
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.  AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  EXPECT AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST SEA
BREEZE TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE THRU
FRI THEN LOWER CONFIDENCE INTO THIS WEEKEND.

VFR EXPECT A LOW RISK FOR PATCHY IFR IN EARLY MORNING FOG EACH DAY.
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSTMS MAINLY WEST OF
MHT AND ORH. BY SAT CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR COMING ONSHORE INTO EASTERN
MA AND RI ALONG WITH THREAT OF SHOWERS. MARGINAL VFR-MVFR LIKELY
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE NIGHT. MAIN CONCERN IS FOR ROUGH
SEAS ON SOUTH COASTAL WATERS...WHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES
INTO TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES WATERS TONIGHT...BUT
EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY DENSE FOG...AT LEAST EARLY
TONIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES LATE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE WATERS TUESDAY...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES.
SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDE OFFSHORE.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS WED THRU FRI THEN SE WINDS POSSIBLY
INCREASING SAT PENDING STRENGTH AND TRACK OF FRONTAL WAVE MOVING NE
FROM THE MID ATLC. FAIR VSBY WED THRU FRI THEN POSSIBLY LOWERING SAT
IN SHOWERS AND FOG.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS
     MORNING FOR RIZ008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS
     MORNING FOR ANZ235-237-250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/NOCERA
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...FRANK/NOCERA
MARINE...BELK/NOCERA



000
FXUS61 KBOX 290550
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
150 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY AND LESS HUMID WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
WORK WEEK. THIS WEEKEND AN OFFSHORE FRONT MAY BUILD BACK INTO NEW
ENGLAND ALONG WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE
RISK OF SHOWERS AND MORE HUMID WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

150 AM UPDATE...

A BRIEF SPRINKLE OR TWO REMAINS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHWEST
MA/SOUTHWEST NH FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO.  OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER
THROUGH DAYBREAK AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION.
LOW TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE MIDDLE 60S BY
DAYBREAK.  APPEARS THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH WIND TO PREVENT FOG IN
MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY...RESULTING
IN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. NOT MUCH OF AIRMASS CHANGE SO HIGHS ONCE
AGAIN SHOULD TOP OFF IN 70S TO AROUND 80 BUT WITH SIGNIFICANTLY
LOWER HUMIDITY. WEAK GRADIENT SUPPORTS AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ALONG
BOTH COASTS. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAINLY DRY/QUIET AND SEASONABLE WEATHER WED THRU FRI
* POSSIBLY UNSETTLED AND MORE HUMID THIS WEEKEND

WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY...

LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST EARLY THIS PERIOD
HOWEVER THE MEAN MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS FAR ENOUGH EAST TO KEEP
THE DEEP PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE OFFSHORE. THUS MAINLY DRY
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL WED THRU FRI. HOWEVER GIVEN COOL TEMPS ALOFT
COMBINED WITH CYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW CAN/T RULE OUT A LOW RISK OF A
FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS/T-STORMS INLAND.

AS FOR TEMPS...GIVEN THE BELOW NORMAL 500 HEIGHTS EXPECT LATE
JULY/EARLY AUG SUN ANGLE TO PROVIDE MILD DAYS BUT DEW PTS IN THE 50S
WILL YIELD COMFORTABLY COOL NIGHTS.

THIS WEEKEND...

NORTHEAST TROUGH RETROGRADES TO THE MS VLY THIS WEEKEND. THIS OPENS
THE DOOR FOR TROPICAL MOISTURE AND THE OFFSHORE FRONT TO BACK INTO
NEW ENGLAND...ESPECIALLY EASTERN MA AND RI. THIS WILL INCREASE THE
RISK FOR SHOWERS AND T-STORMS ALONG WITH MORE HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MARGINAL MVFR CIGS ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR
NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY DAYBREAK.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR CONDITIONS OTHER THAN
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.  AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  EXPECT AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST SEA
BREEZE TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE THRU
FRI THEN LOWER CONFIDENCE INTO THIS WEEKEND.

VFR EXPECT A LOW RISK FOR PATCHY IFR IN EARLY MORNING FOG EACH DAY.
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSTMS MAINLY WEST OF
MHT AND ORH. BY SAT CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR COMING ONSHORE INTO EASTERN
MA AND RI ALONG WITH THREAT OF SHOWERS. MARGINAL VFR-MVFR LIKELY
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE NIGHT. MAIN CONCERN IS FOR ROUGH
SEAS ON SOUTH COASTAL WATERS...WHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES
INTO TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES WATERS TONIGHT...BUT
EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY DENSE FOG...AT LEAST EARLY
TONIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES LATE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE WATERS TUESDAY...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES.
SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDE OFFSHORE.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS WED THRU FRI THEN SE WINDS POSSIBLY
INCREASING SAT PENDING STRENGTH AND TRACK OF FRONTAL WAVE MOVING NE
FROM THE MID ATLC. FAIR VSBY WED THRU FRI THEN POSSIBLY LOWERING SAT
IN SHOWERS AND FOG.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS
     MORNING FOR RIZ008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS
     MORNING FOR ANZ235-237-250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/NOCERA
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...FRANK/NOCERA
MARINE...BELK/NOCERA



000
FXUS61 KOKX 290532
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
132 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY AND
REMAINS ENTRENCHED THROUGH THE WEEK. WEAK LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP
LATE THIS WEEKEND ALONG THE COAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
FCST UPDATED MAINLY FOR MARINE HEADLINES. NO MAJOR CHANGES.

SHOWER THREAT HAS COME TO AN END WILL LOSS OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY
AND WITH DRIER AIRMASS ADVECTING IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT. GENERALLY
SCT TO OCCASIONALLY BKN MID-DECK WILL ADVECT ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH AROUND 06-08Z AS TROUGH AXIS SLIDES THROUGH...THEN
CLEARING SKIES IN ITS WAKE.

GUSTY WSW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE OVERNIGHT.

LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S IN NYC. WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SUN GIVES WAY TO AFTERNOON CUMULUS THAT "PANCAKE" UNDER THE
SUBSIDENCE TO BKN AT TIMES.

CLEAR TUESDAY NIGHT.

MAX/MINS ARE A BLEND OF MOS WHICH HAD LITTLE SPREAD.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS
ALONG THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FACING BEACHES THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US WILL BE THE
DOMINATING FEATURE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK BEFORE WEAKENING
THIS COMING WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
WED-FRI WITH A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE STALLED FRONT WELL SHORE BACKS
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST.

GENERALLY EXPECTING DRY AND QUIET WED THROUGH WED NIGHT. 12Z NAM AND
GFS BOTH HINTING AT ISO SHOWER/TSTM DEVELOPMENT WELL NORTH/WEST OF
NYC METRO...CORRESPONDING WITH THE REGION UNDER A PASSING SHORTWAVE.
HAVE BEEN GOING BACK AND FORTH THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS ON WHETHER
ANYTHING WILL FORM SO WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED A LOW END SLIGHT CHC
FOR PCPN FOR THE AFTN WITH JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE LOWER ATMO
BEING INJECTED IN WITH THE SWLY FLOW. OVERALL THOUGH...MAJORITY OF
THE AREA WILL ENJOY DRY WX. SIMILAR STORY ON THURS WITH ANOTHER
PASSING SHORTWAVE AND A BIT MORE MOISTURE IN THE ATMO...CLOSER TO
NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AGAIN JUST HAVE MENTION FOR
SLIGHT CHC TSTM WELL NORTH/WEST OF NYC METRO.

POTENTIAL FOR A BIT MORE ACTIVE PERIOD FRIDAY HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...THE LINGERING STALLED FRONTAL SYSTEM WELL
OFFSHORE BEGINS TO BACK AS A WARM FRONT...WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE FORMING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LINE. ALOFT...THE
DOMINATING CLOSED LOW/ASSOCIATED DEEP TROUGH BEGINS TO EDGE OFF TO
THE NORTH AND EAST. THE REGION WILL REMAIN POSITIONED THOUGH UNDER A
BROAD TROUGH...WITH MULTIPLE DECENT SHORTWAVES RIDING THE
FLOW...EACH BRINGING ENOUGH FORCING TO TRIGGER SHOWERS AND/OR TSTMS.
HAVE ATTEMPTED TO TIME OUT THE PASSING AND INCLUDED POPS TO
CORRESPOND WHERE THERE IS BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE
TIMING...FRI NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN SAT AFTN/EVENING. MODELS DIVERGE
HOWEVER ON THE SOLUTION SUN-MON WITH THE 12Z GFS BEING THE MORE
PROGRESSION IN WEAKENING THE TROUGH INTO ALMOST A ZONAL FLOW WHILE
THE ECMWF LINGERS THE TROUGH INTO THE WORK WEEK. TAKING A BLEND OF
THE SOLUTIONS FOR NOW WITH THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY...HAVE MENTION OF
SLIGHT CHC POPS SUN AFTN-MON EVENING. THE TREND SUGGESTS ANY PCPN
SUN MIGHT BE ISOLATED IN NATURE...WITH MORE SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS
MONDAY WITH BOTH A PASSING SHORTWAVE AND THE FRONT STALLING JUST
EAST OF THE AREA. AS OF NOW...THE THREAT OF ANY STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS LOOKS TO BE VERY MINIMAL.

UNDER THE PERSISTING TROUGH...TEMPS WILL HOVER A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. RISING HEIGHTS BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND WILL AID IN PUSHING TEMPS TO RIGHT AROUND NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT.

VFR. NW WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. GUSTS SHOULD ONLY REMAIN IN
THE NYC TERMINALS THROUGH ABOUT 8-9Z.

FOR TUESDAY...NW FLOW AROUND 10 KT BACKS W TO SW IN THE AFTN.
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES PROBABLE FOR AT LEAST KJFK/KISP/KBDR/KGON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...VFR.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM KBDR TO KFRG. VFR
OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS/TSTORMS.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY SWELLS WILL STILL REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT THROUGH AROUND
DAYBREAK...POSSIBLY THROUGH TUES MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN COASTAL OCEAN WATERS. WAVE-WATCH GUIDANCE MAY BE ABOUT 1
FT TOO HIGH.

SUB-SCA SEAS EXPECTED BY TUE AFT.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS THEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...WITH A POSSIBLE RETURN TO 25 KT GUSTS AND 5 FT SEAS OVER THE
WEEKEND DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ350-
     353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...LN
MARINE...JMC/SEARS
HYDROLOGY...







000
FXUS61 KALY 290520
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
120 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO
NEAR NORTHERN MAINE BY TUESDAY MORNING. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER ON TUESDAY. ON
WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED...BUT AN
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY CAUSE A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO WIND DOWN ACROSS THE AREA. THE STRONG
SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED OVER MAINE AND IS BEING DRAWN NORTHWARD BY
THE LARGE CLOSED LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA. CLOUDS SHOULD DOMINATE
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SKIES . ONLY SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
WERE MADE TO THE TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS. UPDATED WINDS USING
A BLEND FROM THE LATEST GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANY MORNING CLOUDINESS SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE MORNING AND
SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S
TOMORROW...WITH AROUND 70 TO MID 70S HIGHER TERRAIN. BETTER
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TOMORROW NIGHT WITH A LOW LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS OVER THE REGION AND LIGHT WINDS. LOWS IN THE 50S...WITH
40S IN COLDER SPOTS.

BROAD UPPER ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCING MEAN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. NOT MUCH MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM DOMINATED BY NORTHERN STREAM FLOW...SO
INTERVALS OF CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SLOWLY SPREADING EAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH
LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THIS WILL BE A PERIOD OF VERY LITTLE ATMOSPHERIC MOTION ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN U.S.  DURING THIS TIME...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL
BE SITUATED ALONG THE EAST COAST.  THE CLOSENESS OF THIS FRONT TO
OUR REGION COUPLED WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE INLAND WILL RESULT IN A
STAGNANT AIR MASS OF GRADUALLY INCREASING HUMIDITY THAT WILL MEAN A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE PERIOD.
A COLD FRONT FROM CANADA WILL HAVE REACHED ONLY THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES AND SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY MONDAY...AND THUS SHALL PROVIDE NO
RELIEF TO OUR REGION.

THERE WILL ALSO BE LITTLE NOTABLE VARIATION IN THE TEMPERATURE
PATTERN...WITH HIGHS EACH DAY FROM THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S.  LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE HIGH PEAKS OF
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO AROUND 60 DEGREES IN THE LOWER MID
HUDSON VALLEY.  LOWS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHTS WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOWER 50S IN THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS...TO
THE LOWER 60S DOWN THE HUDSON AND LOWER CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS...THOUGH
READINGS MAY HOLD UP IN THE MID 60S DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY SUNDAY
NIGHT.  NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS IN ALBANY THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST ARE
IN THE LOWER 80S AND LOWER 60S...RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH A COLD FRONT NOW EAST OF THE AREA...SHOWERS HAVE ENDED ACROSS
THE REGION...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS REMAIN OVER THE REGION THANKS TO AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE AREA OVER CANADA. FLYING
CONDITIONS ARE VFR FOR THE VALLEY TAF SITES...BUT REMAIN IFR AT KPSF
THANKS TO LINGERING LOW STRATUS.  AS LESS HUMID AIR WORKS INTO THE
REGION...CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY SCT OUT BY LATE TONIGHT...WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING AT KPSF BETWEEN 09Z-12Z. W-NW WINDS WILL BE
AROUND 5-10 KTS...WHICH WILL PREVENT ANY FOG FROM FORMING.

DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE WITH
JUST SCT DIURNAL FLAT CU. LIGHT WESTERLY SFC WINDS WILL BE AROUND 5
KTS. THE CLOUDS WILL START TO DISSIPATE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
JUST A FEW LINGERING CLOUDS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...AND WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT TO CALM AT ALL SITES.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO
NEAR NORTHERN MAINE BY TUESDAY MORNING. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER ON TUESDAY. ON
WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED...BUT AN
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY CAUSE A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.

RH VALUES WILL BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT. RH
VALUES WILL BE 40 TO 55 PERCENT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR LESS
THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN SOUTH AT 15 MPH OR LESS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ALL FLOOD WARNINGS EXPIRED OR WHERE CANCELLED EARLIER.

EVEN THOUGH HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE...THE REGION
WILL BE UNDER A LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH A LARGE CLOSED LOW WOBBLING
OVER EASTERN CANADA THIS WEEK. PIECES OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL
ROTATE ABOUT THE LOW TRIGGERING CONVECTION WITH THE HEATING OF THE
DAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...IAA/BGM/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...IAA







000
FXUS61 KALY 290520
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
120 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO
NEAR NORTHERN MAINE BY TUESDAY MORNING. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER ON TUESDAY. ON
WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED...BUT AN
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY CAUSE A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO WIND DOWN ACROSS THE AREA. THE STRONG
SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED OVER MAINE AND IS BEING DRAWN NORTHWARD BY
THE LARGE CLOSED LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA. CLOUDS SHOULD DOMINATE
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SKIES . ONLY SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
WERE MADE TO THE TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS. UPDATED WINDS USING
A BLEND FROM THE LATEST GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANY MORNING CLOUDINESS SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE MORNING AND
SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S
TOMORROW...WITH AROUND 70 TO MID 70S HIGHER TERRAIN. BETTER
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TOMORROW NIGHT WITH A LOW LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS OVER THE REGION AND LIGHT WINDS. LOWS IN THE 50S...WITH
40S IN COLDER SPOTS.

BROAD UPPER ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCING MEAN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. NOT MUCH MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM DOMINATED BY NORTHERN STREAM FLOW...SO
INTERVALS OF CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SLOWLY SPREADING EAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH
LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THIS WILL BE A PERIOD OF VERY LITTLE ATMOSPHERIC MOTION ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN U.S.  DURING THIS TIME...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL
BE SITUATED ALONG THE EAST COAST.  THE CLOSENESS OF THIS FRONT TO
OUR REGION COUPLED WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE INLAND WILL RESULT IN A
STAGNANT AIR MASS OF GRADUALLY INCREASING HUMIDITY THAT WILL MEAN A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE PERIOD.
A COLD FRONT FROM CANADA WILL HAVE REACHED ONLY THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES AND SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY MONDAY...AND THUS SHALL PROVIDE NO
RELIEF TO OUR REGION.

THERE WILL ALSO BE LITTLE NOTABLE VARIATION IN THE TEMPERATURE
PATTERN...WITH HIGHS EACH DAY FROM THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S.  LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE HIGH PEAKS OF
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO AROUND 60 DEGREES IN THE LOWER MID
HUDSON VALLEY.  LOWS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHTS WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOWER 50S IN THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS...TO
THE LOWER 60S DOWN THE HUDSON AND LOWER CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS...THOUGH
READINGS MAY HOLD UP IN THE MID 60S DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY SUNDAY
NIGHT.  NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS IN ALBANY THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST ARE
IN THE LOWER 80S AND LOWER 60S...RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH A COLD FRONT NOW EAST OF THE AREA...SHOWERS HAVE ENDED ACROSS
THE REGION...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS REMAIN OVER THE REGION THANKS TO AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE AREA OVER CANADA. FLYING
CONDITIONS ARE VFR FOR THE VALLEY TAF SITES...BUT REMAIN IFR AT KPSF
THANKS TO LINGERING LOW STRATUS.  AS LESS HUMID AIR WORKS INTO THE
REGION...CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY SCT OUT BY LATE TONIGHT...WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING AT KPSF BETWEEN 09Z-12Z. W-NW WINDS WILL BE
AROUND 5-10 KTS...WHICH WILL PREVENT ANY FOG FROM FORMING.

DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE WITH
JUST SCT DIURNAL FLAT CU. LIGHT WESTERLY SFC WINDS WILL BE AROUND 5
KTS. THE CLOUDS WILL START TO DISSIPATE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
JUST A FEW LINGERING CLOUDS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...AND WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT TO CALM AT ALL SITES.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO
NEAR NORTHERN MAINE BY TUESDAY MORNING. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER ON TUESDAY. ON
WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED...BUT AN
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY CAUSE A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.

RH VALUES WILL BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT. RH
VALUES WILL BE 40 TO 55 PERCENT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR LESS
THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN SOUTH AT 15 MPH OR LESS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ALL FLOOD WARNINGS EXPIRED OR WHERE CANCELLED EARLIER.

EVEN THOUGH HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE...THE REGION
WILL BE UNDER A LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH A LARGE CLOSED LOW WOBBLING
OVER EASTERN CANADA THIS WEEK. PIECES OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL
ROTATE ABOUT THE LOW TRIGGERING CONVECTION WITH THE HEATING OF THE
DAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...IAA/BGM/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...IAA








000
FXUS61 KOKX 290409
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1209 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY AND
REMAINS ENTRENCHED THROUGH THE WEEK. WEAK LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP
LATE THIS WEEKEND ALONG THE COAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
FCST UPDATED MAINLY FOR MARINE HEADLINES. NO MAJOR CHANGES.

SHOWER THREAT HAS COME TO AN END WILL LOSS OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY
AND WITH DRIER AIRMASS ADVECTING IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT. GENERALLY
SCT TO OCCASIONALLY BKN MID-DECK WILL ADVECT ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH AROUND 06-08Z AS TROUGH AXIS SLIDES THROUGH...THEN
CLEARING SKIES IN ITS WAKE.

GUSTY WSW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE OVERNIGHT.

LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S IN NYC. WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SUN GIVES WAY TO AFTERNOON CUMULUS THAT "PANCAKE" UNDER THE
SUBSIDENCE TO BKN AT TIMES.

CLEAR TUESDAY NIGHT.

MAX/MINS ARE A BLEND OF MOS WHICH HAD LITTLE SPREAD.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS
ALONG THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FACING BEACHES THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US WILL BE THE
DOMINATING FEATURE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK BEFORE WEAKENING
THIS COMING WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
WED-FRI WITH A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE STALLED FRONT WELL SHORE BACKS
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST.

GENERALLY EXPECTING DRY AND QUIET WED THROUGH WED NIGHT. 12Z NAM AND
GFS BOTH HINTING AT ISO SHOWER/TSTM DEVELOPMENT WELL NORTH/WEST OF
NYC METRO...CORRESPONDING WITH THE REGION UNDER A PASSING SHORTWAVE.
HAVE BEEN GOING BACK AND FORTH THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS ON WHETHER
ANYTHING WILL FORM SO WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED A LOW END SLIGHT CHC
FOR PCPN FOR THE AFTN WITH JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE LOWER ATMO
BEING INJECTED IN WITH THE SWLY FLOW. OVERALL THOUGH...MAJORITY OF
THE AREA WILL ENJOY DRY WX. SIMILAR STORY ON THURS WITH ANOTHER
PASSING SHORTWAVE AND A BIT MORE MOISTURE IN THE ATMO...CLOSER TO
NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AGAIN JUST HAVE MENTION FOR
SLIGHT CHC TSTM WELL NORTH/WEST OF NYC METRO.

POTENTIAL FOR A BIT MORE ACTIVE PERIOD FRIDAY HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...THE LINGERING STALLED FRONTAL SYSTEM WELL
OFFSHORE BEGINS TO BACK AS A WARM FRONT...WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE FORMING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LINE. ALOFT...THE
DOMINATING CLOSED LOW/ASSOCIATED DEEP TROUGH BEGINS TO EDGE OFF TO
THE NORTH AND EAST. THE REGION WILL REMAIN POSITIONED THOUGH UNDER A
BROAD TROUGH...WITH MULTIPLE DECENT SHORTWAVES RIDING THE
FLOW...EACH BRINGING ENOUGH FORCING TO TRIGGER SHOWERS AND/OR TSTMS.
HAVE ATTEMPTED TO TIME OUT THE PASSING AND INCLUDED POPS TO
CORRESPOND WHERE THERE IS BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE
TIMING...FRI NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN SAT AFTN/EVENING. MODELS DIVERGE
HOWEVER ON THE SOLUTION SUN-MON WITH THE 12Z GFS BEING THE MORE
PROGRESSION IN WEAKENING THE TROUGH INTO ALMOST A ZONAL FLOW WHILE
THE ECMWF LINGERS THE TROUGH INTO THE WORK WEEK. TAKING A BLEND OF
THE SOLUTIONS FOR NOW WITH THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY...HAVE MENTION OF
SLIGHT CHC POPS SUN AFTN-MON EVENING. THE TREND SUGGESTS ANY PCPN
SUN MIGHT BE ISOLATED IN NATURE...WITH MORE SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS
MONDAY WITH BOTH A PASSING SHORTWAVE AND THE FRONT STALLING JUST
EAST OF THE AREA. AS OF NOW...THE THREAT OF ANY STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS LOOKS TO BE VERY MINIMAL.

UNDER THE PERSISTING TROUGH...TEMPS WILL HOVER A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. RISING HEIGHTS BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND WILL AID IN PUSHING TEMPS TO RIGHT AROUND NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT.

VFR. NW WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. END TIME OF FREQUENT
GUSTS COULD BE AN HOUR OR TWO OFF.

FOR TUESDAY...NW FLOW AROUND 10 KT BACKS W TO SW IN THE AFTN.
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES PROBABLE FOR AT LEAST KJFK/KISP/KBDR/KGON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...VFR.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM KBDR TO KFRG.
OTHERWISE...VFR.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY SWELLS WILL STILL REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT THROUGH AROUND
DAYBREAK...POSSIBLY THROUGH TUES MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN COASTAL OCEAN WATERS. WAVE-WATCH GUIDANCE MAY BE ABOUT 1
FT TOO HIGH.

SUB-SCA SEAS EXPECTED BY TUE AFT.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS THEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...WITH A POSSIBLE RETURN TO 25 KT GUSTS AND 5 FT SEAS OVER THE
WEEKEND DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ350-
     353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...JC/MPS
MARINE...JMC/SEARS
HYDROLOGY...







000
FXUS61 KOKX 290409
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1209 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY AND
REMAINS ENTRENCHED THROUGH THE WEEK. WEAK LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP
LATE THIS WEEKEND ALONG THE COAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
FCST UPDATED MAINLY FOR MARINE HEADLINES. NO MAJOR CHANGES.

SHOWER THREAT HAS COME TO AN END WILL LOSS OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY
AND WITH DRIER AIRMASS ADVECTING IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT. GENERALLY
SCT TO OCCASIONALLY BKN MID-DECK WILL ADVECT ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH AROUND 06-08Z AS TROUGH AXIS SLIDES THROUGH...THEN
CLEARING SKIES IN ITS WAKE.

GUSTY WSW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE OVERNIGHT.

LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S IN NYC. WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SUN GIVES WAY TO AFTERNOON CUMULUS THAT "PANCAKE" UNDER THE
SUBSIDENCE TO BKN AT TIMES.

CLEAR TUESDAY NIGHT.

MAX/MINS ARE A BLEND OF MOS WHICH HAD LITTLE SPREAD.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS
ALONG THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FACING BEACHES THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US WILL BE THE
DOMINATING FEATURE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK BEFORE WEAKENING
THIS COMING WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
WED-FRI WITH A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE STALLED FRONT WELL SHORE BACKS
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST.

GENERALLY EXPECTING DRY AND QUIET WED THROUGH WED NIGHT. 12Z NAM AND
GFS BOTH HINTING AT ISO SHOWER/TSTM DEVELOPMENT WELL NORTH/WEST OF
NYC METRO...CORRESPONDING WITH THE REGION UNDER A PASSING SHORTWAVE.
HAVE BEEN GOING BACK AND FORTH THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS ON WHETHER
ANYTHING WILL FORM SO WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED A LOW END SLIGHT CHC
FOR PCPN FOR THE AFTN WITH JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE LOWER ATMO
BEING INJECTED IN WITH THE SWLY FLOW. OVERALL THOUGH...MAJORITY OF
THE AREA WILL ENJOY DRY WX. SIMILAR STORY ON THURS WITH ANOTHER
PASSING SHORTWAVE AND A BIT MORE MOISTURE IN THE ATMO...CLOSER TO
NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AGAIN JUST HAVE MENTION FOR
SLIGHT CHC TSTM WELL NORTH/WEST OF NYC METRO.

POTENTIAL FOR A BIT MORE ACTIVE PERIOD FRIDAY HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...THE LINGERING STALLED FRONTAL SYSTEM WELL
OFFSHORE BEGINS TO BACK AS A WARM FRONT...WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE FORMING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LINE. ALOFT...THE
DOMINATING CLOSED LOW/ASSOCIATED DEEP TROUGH BEGINS TO EDGE OFF TO
THE NORTH AND EAST. THE REGION WILL REMAIN POSITIONED THOUGH UNDER A
BROAD TROUGH...WITH MULTIPLE DECENT SHORTWAVES RIDING THE
FLOW...EACH BRINGING ENOUGH FORCING TO TRIGGER SHOWERS AND/OR TSTMS.
HAVE ATTEMPTED TO TIME OUT THE PASSING AND INCLUDED POPS TO
CORRESPOND WHERE THERE IS BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE
TIMING...FRI NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN SAT AFTN/EVENING. MODELS DIVERGE
HOWEVER ON THE SOLUTION SUN-MON WITH THE 12Z GFS BEING THE MORE
PROGRESSION IN WEAKENING THE TROUGH INTO ALMOST A ZONAL FLOW WHILE
THE ECMWF LINGERS THE TROUGH INTO THE WORK WEEK. TAKING A BLEND OF
THE SOLUTIONS FOR NOW WITH THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY...HAVE MENTION OF
SLIGHT CHC POPS SUN AFTN-MON EVENING. THE TREND SUGGESTS ANY PCPN
SUN MIGHT BE ISOLATED IN NATURE...WITH MORE SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS
MONDAY WITH BOTH A PASSING SHORTWAVE AND THE FRONT STALLING JUST
EAST OF THE AREA. AS OF NOW...THE THREAT OF ANY STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS LOOKS TO BE VERY MINIMAL.

UNDER THE PERSISTING TROUGH...TEMPS WILL HOVER A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. RISING HEIGHTS BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND WILL AID IN PUSHING TEMPS TO RIGHT AROUND NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT.

VFR. NW WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. END TIME OF FREQUENT
GUSTS COULD BE AN HOUR OR TWO OFF.

FOR TUESDAY...NW FLOW AROUND 10 KT BACKS W TO SW IN THE AFTN.
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES PROBABLE FOR AT LEAST KJFK/KISP/KBDR/KGON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...VFR.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM KBDR TO KFRG.
OTHERWISE...VFR.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY SWELLS WILL STILL REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT THROUGH AROUND
DAYBREAK...POSSIBLY THROUGH TUES MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN COASTAL OCEAN WATERS. WAVE-WATCH GUIDANCE MAY BE ABOUT 1
FT TOO HIGH.

SUB-SCA SEAS EXPECTED BY TUE AFT.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS THEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...WITH A POSSIBLE RETURN TO 25 KT GUSTS AND 5 FT SEAS OVER THE
WEEKEND DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ350-
     353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...JC/MPS
MARINE...JMC/SEARS
HYDROLOGY...






000
FXUS61 KBOX 290359
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1159 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

MAINLY DRY AND LESS HUMID WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
WORK WEEK. THIS WEEKEND AN OFFSHORE FRONT MAY BUILD BACK INTO NEW
ENGLAND ALONG WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE
RISK OF SHOWERS AND MORE HUMID WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

1155 PM UPDATE...

A BRIEF SPOT SHOWER TWO REMAINS POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN MA/SOUTHWEST
NH FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS.  OTHERWISE...EXPECT DRY WEATHER THROUGH
DAYBREAK AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION.  LOW TEMPS SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE MIDDLE 60S BY DAYBREAK.  APPEARS
THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH WIND TO PREVENT FOG IN MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY...RESULTING
IN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. NOT MUCH OF AIRMASS CHANGE SO HIGHS ONCE
AGAIN SHOULD TOP OFF IN 70S TO AROUND 80 BUT WITH SIGNIFICANTLY
LOWER HUMIDITY. WEAK GRADIENT SUPPORTS AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ALONG
BOTH COASTS. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAINLY DRY/QUIET AND SEASONABLE WEATHER WED THRU FRI
* POSSIBLY UNSETTLED AND MORE HUMID THIS WEEKEND

WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY...

LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST EARLY THIS PERIOD
HOWEVER THE MEAN MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS FAR ENOUGH EAST TO KEEP
THE DEEP PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE OFFSHORE. THUS MAINLY DRY
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL WED THRU FRI. HOWEVER GIVEN COOL TEMPS ALOFT
COMBINED WITH CYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW CAN/T RULE OUT A LOW RISK OF A
FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS/T-STORMS INLAND.

AS FOR TEMPS...GIVEN THE BELOW NORMAL 500 HEIGHTS EXPECT LATE
JULY/EARLY AUG SUN ANGLE TO PROVIDE MILD DAYS BUT DEW PTS IN THE 50S
WILL YIELD COMFORTABLY COOL NIGHTS.

THIS WEEKEND...

NORTHEAST TROUGH RETROGRADES TO THE MS VLY THIS WEEKEND. THIS OPENS
THE DOOR FOR TROPICAL MOISTURE AND THE OFFSHORE FRONT TO BACK INTO
NEW ENGLAND...ESPECIALLY EASTERN MA AND RI. THIS WILL INCREASE THE
RISK FOR SHOWERS AND T-STORMS ALONG WITH MORE HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING.

MAINLY VFR ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT. EXPECTING BRIEF
MVFR IN SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA THROUGH 29/02Z. PATCHY MVFR/IFR
POSSIBLE IN VALLEY FOG. VFR TUE WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES.
MAINLY VFR TUE NIGHT.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE THRU FRI
THEN LOWER CONFIDENCE INTO THIS WEEKEND.

VFR EXPECT A LOW RISK FOR PATCHY IFR IN EARLY MORNING FOG EACH DAY.
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSTMS MAINLY WEST OF
MHT AND ORH. BY SAT CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR COMING ONSHORE INTO EASTERN
MA AND RI ALONG WITH THREAT OF SHOWERS. MARGINAL VFR-MVFR LIKELY
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE NIGHT. MAIN CONCERN IS FOR ROUGH
SEAS ON SOUTH COASTAL WATERS...WHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES
INTO TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES WATERS TONIGHT...BUT
EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY DENSE FOG...AT LEAST EARLY
TONIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES LATE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE WATERS TUESDAY...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES.
SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDE OFFSHORE.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS WED THRU FRI THEN SE WINDS POSSIBLY
INCREASING SAT PENDING STRENGTH AND TRACK OF FRONTAL WAVE MOVING NE
FROM THE MID ATLC. FAIR VSBY WED THRU FRI THEN POSSIBLY LOWERING SAT
IN SHOWERS AND FOG.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR RIZ008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237-250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/NOCERA
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...BELK/NOCERA
MARINE...BELK/NOCERA




000
FXUS61 KBOX 290359
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1159 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

MAINLY DRY AND LESS HUMID WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
WORK WEEK. THIS WEEKEND AN OFFSHORE FRONT MAY BUILD BACK INTO NEW
ENGLAND ALONG WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE
RISK OF SHOWERS AND MORE HUMID WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

1155 PM UPDATE...

A BRIEF SPOT SHOWER TWO REMAINS POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN MA/SOUTHWEST
NH FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS.  OTHERWISE...EXPECT DRY WEATHER THROUGH
DAYBREAK AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION.  LOW TEMPS SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE MIDDLE 60S BY DAYBREAK.  APPEARS
THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH WIND TO PREVENT FOG IN MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY...RESULTING
IN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. NOT MUCH OF AIRMASS CHANGE SO HIGHS ONCE
AGAIN SHOULD TOP OFF IN 70S TO AROUND 80 BUT WITH SIGNIFICANTLY
LOWER HUMIDITY. WEAK GRADIENT SUPPORTS AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ALONG
BOTH COASTS. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAINLY DRY/QUIET AND SEASONABLE WEATHER WED THRU FRI
* POSSIBLY UNSETTLED AND MORE HUMID THIS WEEKEND

WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY...

LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST EARLY THIS PERIOD
HOWEVER THE MEAN MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS FAR ENOUGH EAST TO KEEP
THE DEEP PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE OFFSHORE. THUS MAINLY DRY
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL WED THRU FRI. HOWEVER GIVEN COOL TEMPS ALOFT
COMBINED WITH CYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW CAN/T RULE OUT A LOW RISK OF A
FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS/T-STORMS INLAND.

AS FOR TEMPS...GIVEN THE BELOW NORMAL 500 HEIGHTS EXPECT LATE
JULY/EARLY AUG SUN ANGLE TO PROVIDE MILD DAYS BUT DEW PTS IN THE 50S
WILL YIELD COMFORTABLY COOL NIGHTS.

THIS WEEKEND...

NORTHEAST TROUGH RETROGRADES TO THE MS VLY THIS WEEKEND. THIS OPENS
THE DOOR FOR TROPICAL MOISTURE AND THE OFFSHORE FRONT TO BACK INTO
NEW ENGLAND...ESPECIALLY EASTERN MA AND RI. THIS WILL INCREASE THE
RISK FOR SHOWERS AND T-STORMS ALONG WITH MORE HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING.

MAINLY VFR ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT. EXPECTING BRIEF
MVFR IN SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA THROUGH 29/02Z. PATCHY MVFR/IFR
POSSIBLE IN VALLEY FOG. VFR TUE WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES.
MAINLY VFR TUE NIGHT.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE THRU FRI
THEN LOWER CONFIDENCE INTO THIS WEEKEND.

VFR EXPECT A LOW RISK FOR PATCHY IFR IN EARLY MORNING FOG EACH DAY.
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSTMS MAINLY WEST OF
MHT AND ORH. BY SAT CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR COMING ONSHORE INTO EASTERN
MA AND RI ALONG WITH THREAT OF SHOWERS. MARGINAL VFR-MVFR LIKELY
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE NIGHT. MAIN CONCERN IS FOR ROUGH
SEAS ON SOUTH COASTAL WATERS...WHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES
INTO TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES WATERS TONIGHT...BUT
EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY DENSE FOG...AT LEAST EARLY
TONIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES LATE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE WATERS TUESDAY...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES.
SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDE OFFSHORE.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS WED THRU FRI THEN SE WINDS POSSIBLY
INCREASING SAT PENDING STRENGTH AND TRACK OF FRONTAL WAVE MOVING NE
FROM THE MID ATLC. FAIR VSBY WED THRU FRI THEN POSSIBLY LOWERING SAT
IN SHOWERS AND FOG.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR RIZ008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237-250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/NOCERA
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...BELK/NOCERA
MARINE...BELK/NOCERA



000
FXUS61 KOKX 290248
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1048 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY AND
REMAINS ENTRENCHED THROUGH THE WEEK. WEAK LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP
LATE THIS WEEKEND ALONG THE COAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SHOWER THREAT HAS COME TO AN END WILL LOSS OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY
AND WITH DRIER AIRMASS ADVECTING IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT. GENERALLY
SCT TO OCCASIONALLY BKN MID-DECK WILL ADVECT ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH AROUND 06-08Z AS TROUGH AXIS SLIDES THROUGH...THEN
CLEARING SKIES IN ITS WAKE.

GUSTY WSW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE OVERNIGHT.

LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S IN NYC. WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SUN GIVES WAY TO AFTERNOON CUMULUS THAT "PANCAKE" UNDER THE
SUBSIDENCE TO BKN AT TIMES.

CLEAR TUESDAY NIGHT.

MAX/MINS ARE A BLEND OF MOS WHICH HAD LITTLE SPREAD.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS
ALONG THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FACING BEACHES THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US WILL BE THE
DOMINATING FEATURE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK BEFORE WEAKENING
THIS COMING WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
WED-FRI WITH A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE STALLED FRONT WELL SHORE BACKS
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST.

GENERALLY EXPECTING DRY AND QUIET WED THROUGH WED NIGHT. 12Z NAM AND
GFS BOTH HINTING AT ISO SHOWER/TSTM DEVELOPMENT WELL NORTH/WEST OF
NYC METRO...CORRESPONDING WITH THE REGION UNDER A PASSING SHORTWAVE.
HAVE BEEN GOING BACK AND FORTH THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS ON WHETHER
ANYTHING WILL FORM SO WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED A LOW END SLIGHT CHC
FOR PCPN FOR THE AFTN WITH JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE LOWER ATMO
BEING INJECTED IN WITH THE SWLY FLOW. OVERALL THOUGH...MAJORITY OF
THE AREA WILL ENJOY DRY WX. SIMILAR STORY ON THURS WITH ANOTHER
PASSING SHORTWAVE AND A BIT MORE MOISTURE IN THE ATMO...CLOSER TO
NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AGAIN JUST HAVE MENTION FOR
SLIGHT CHC TSTM WELL NORTH/WEST OF NYC METRO.

POTENTIAL FOR A BIT MORE ACTIVE PERIOD FRIDAY HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...THE LINGERING STALLED FRONTAL SYSTEM WELL
OFFSHORE BEGINS TO BACK AS A WARM FRONT...WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE FORMING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LINE. ALOFT...THE
DOMINATING CLOSED LOW/ASSOCIATED DEEP TROUGH BEGINS TO EDGE OFF TO
THE NORTH AND EAST. THE REGION WILL REMAIN POSITIONED THOUGH UNDER A
BROAD TROUGH...WITH MULTIPLE DECENT SHORTWAVES RIDING THE
FLOW...EACH BRINGING ENOUGH FORCING TO TRIGGER SHOWERS AND/OR TSTMS.
HAVE ATTEMPTED TO TIME OUT THE PASSING AND INCLUDED POPS TO
CORRESPOND WHERE THERE IS BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE
TIMING...FRI NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN SAT AFTN/EVENING. MODELS DIVERGE
HOWEVER ON THE SOLUTION SUN-MON WITH THE 12Z GFS BEING THE MORE
PROGRESSION IN WEAKENING THE TROUGH INTO ALMOST A ZONAL FLOW WHILE
THE ECMWF LINGERS THE TROUGH INTO THE WORK WEEK. TAKING A BLEND OF
THE SOLUTIONS FOR NOW WITH THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY...HAVE MENTION OF
SLIGHT CHC POPS SUN AFTN-MON EVENING. THE TREND SUGGESTS ANY PCPN
SUN MIGHT BE ISOLATED IN NATURE...WITH MORE SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS
MONDAY WITH BOTH A PASSING SHORTWAVE AND THE FRONT STALLING JUST
EAST OF THE AREA. AS OF NOW...THE THREAT OF ANY STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS LOOKS TO BE VERY MINIMAL.

UNDER THE PERSISTING TROUGH...TEMPS WILL HOVER A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. RISING HEIGHTS BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND WILL AID IN PUSHING TEMPS TO RIGHT AROUND NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT.

VFR. NW WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. END TIME OF FREQUENT
GUSTS COULD BE AN HOUR OR TWO OFF.

FOR TUESDAY...NW FLOW AROUND 10 KT BACKS W TO SW IN THE AFTN.
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES PROBABLE FOR AT LEAST KJFK/KISP/KBDR/KGON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...VFR.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM KBDR TO KFRG.
OTHERWISE...VFR.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH BELOW 25 KT THROUGH AROUND
MIDNIGHT. SOUTHERLY SWELLS WILL STILL REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT THROUGH
AROUND DAYBREAK...POSSIBLY THROUGH TUES MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN COASTAL OCEAN WATERS. WAVE-WATCH GUIDANCE MAY BE
ABOUT 1 FT TOO HIGH.

SUB-SCA SEAS EXPECTED BY TUE AFT.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS THEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...WITH A POSSIBLE RETURN TO 25 KT GUSTS AND 5 FT SEAS OVER THE
WEEKEND DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS/TONGUE
NEAR TERM...TONGUE
SHORT TERM...TONGUE
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...JC/MPS
MARINE...SEARS/TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...






000
FXUS61 KOKX 290248
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1048 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY AND
REMAINS ENTRENCHED THROUGH THE WEEK. WEAK LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP
LATE THIS WEEKEND ALONG THE COAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SHOWER THREAT HAS COME TO AN END WILL LOSS OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY
AND WITH DRIER AIRMASS ADVECTING IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT. GENERALLY
SCT TO OCCASIONALLY BKN MID-DECK WILL ADVECT ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH AROUND 06-08Z AS TROUGH AXIS SLIDES THROUGH...THEN
CLEARING SKIES IN ITS WAKE.

GUSTY WSW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE OVERNIGHT.

LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S IN NYC. WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SUN GIVES WAY TO AFTERNOON CUMULUS THAT "PANCAKE" UNDER THE
SUBSIDENCE TO BKN AT TIMES.

CLEAR TUESDAY NIGHT.

MAX/MINS ARE A BLEND OF MOS WHICH HAD LITTLE SPREAD.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS
ALONG THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FACING BEACHES THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US WILL BE THE
DOMINATING FEATURE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK BEFORE WEAKENING
THIS COMING WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
WED-FRI WITH A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE STALLED FRONT WELL SHORE BACKS
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST.

GENERALLY EXPECTING DRY AND QUIET WED THROUGH WED NIGHT. 12Z NAM AND
GFS BOTH HINTING AT ISO SHOWER/TSTM DEVELOPMENT WELL NORTH/WEST OF
NYC METRO...CORRESPONDING WITH THE REGION UNDER A PASSING SHORTWAVE.
HAVE BEEN GOING BACK AND FORTH THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS ON WHETHER
ANYTHING WILL FORM SO WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED A LOW END SLIGHT CHC
FOR PCPN FOR THE AFTN WITH JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE LOWER ATMO
BEING INJECTED IN WITH THE SWLY FLOW. OVERALL THOUGH...MAJORITY OF
THE AREA WILL ENJOY DRY WX. SIMILAR STORY ON THURS WITH ANOTHER
PASSING SHORTWAVE AND A BIT MORE MOISTURE IN THE ATMO...CLOSER TO
NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AGAIN JUST HAVE MENTION FOR
SLIGHT CHC TSTM WELL NORTH/WEST OF NYC METRO.

POTENTIAL FOR A BIT MORE ACTIVE PERIOD FRIDAY HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...THE LINGERING STALLED FRONTAL SYSTEM WELL
OFFSHORE BEGINS TO BACK AS A WARM FRONT...WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE FORMING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LINE. ALOFT...THE
DOMINATING CLOSED LOW/ASSOCIATED DEEP TROUGH BEGINS TO EDGE OFF TO
THE NORTH AND EAST. THE REGION WILL REMAIN POSITIONED THOUGH UNDER A
BROAD TROUGH...WITH MULTIPLE DECENT SHORTWAVES RIDING THE
FLOW...EACH BRINGING ENOUGH FORCING TO TRIGGER SHOWERS AND/OR TSTMS.
HAVE ATTEMPTED TO TIME OUT THE PASSING AND INCLUDED POPS TO
CORRESPOND WHERE THERE IS BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE
TIMING...FRI NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN SAT AFTN/EVENING. MODELS DIVERGE
HOWEVER ON THE SOLUTION SUN-MON WITH THE 12Z GFS BEING THE MORE
PROGRESSION IN WEAKENING THE TROUGH INTO ALMOST A ZONAL FLOW WHILE
THE ECMWF LINGERS THE TROUGH INTO THE WORK WEEK. TAKING A BLEND OF
THE SOLUTIONS FOR NOW WITH THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY...HAVE MENTION OF
SLIGHT CHC POPS SUN AFTN-MON EVENING. THE TREND SUGGESTS ANY PCPN
SUN MIGHT BE ISOLATED IN NATURE...WITH MORE SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS
MONDAY WITH BOTH A PASSING SHORTWAVE AND THE FRONT STALLING JUST
EAST OF THE AREA. AS OF NOW...THE THREAT OF ANY STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS LOOKS TO BE VERY MINIMAL.

UNDER THE PERSISTING TROUGH...TEMPS WILL HOVER A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. RISING HEIGHTS BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND WILL AID IN PUSHING TEMPS TO RIGHT AROUND NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT.

VFR. NW WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. END TIME OF FREQUENT
GUSTS COULD BE AN HOUR OR TWO OFF.

FOR TUESDAY...NW FLOW AROUND 10 KT BACKS W TO SW IN THE AFTN.
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES PROBABLE FOR AT LEAST KJFK/KISP/KBDR/KGON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...VFR.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM KBDR TO KFRG.
OTHERWISE...VFR.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH BELOW 25 KT THROUGH AROUND
MIDNIGHT. SOUTHERLY SWELLS WILL STILL REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT THROUGH
AROUND DAYBREAK...POSSIBLY THROUGH TUES MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN COASTAL OCEAN WATERS. WAVE-WATCH GUIDANCE MAY BE
ABOUT 1 FT TOO HIGH.

SUB-SCA SEAS EXPECTED BY TUE AFT.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS THEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...WITH A POSSIBLE RETURN TO 25 KT GUSTS AND 5 FT SEAS OVER THE
WEEKEND DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS/TONGUE
NEAR TERM...TONGUE
SHORT TERM...TONGUE
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...JC/MPS
MARINE...SEARS/TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...







000
FXUS61 KALY 290202
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1000 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO
NEAR NORTHERN MAINE BY TUESDAY MORNING. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER ON TUESDAY. ON
WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED...BUT AN
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY CAUSE A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
RESIDUAL SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE REGION WILL
SLOWLY DIMINISH AS THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW CONTINUE TO
TRACK FURTHER EAST OF THE REGION.  AS SEEN IN THE 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM
KBUF AND HERE...THE INVERSION NEAR H750 MAY INHIBIT TOO MUCH
CLEARING OVERNIGHT AS WE WILL DELAY THIS PROGRESS UNTIL VERY LATE
TONIGHT.  OTHERWISE...JUST MODIFIED HOURLY VALUES AND POPS AS THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE.

SOME PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED BY DAYBREAK...BUT UPSTREAM
CONDITIONS AND THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LEFT OVER OUR REGION IN THE
WAKE OF ALL THE RAIN SUGGESTS SOME AREAS MAY BE MOSTLY CLOUDY TO
CLOUDY THROUGH DAYBREAK. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHOULD BE STEADY ALL
NIGHT...SUGGESTING SOME LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS
PERSISTING IN SOME AREAS THROUGH THE NIGHT. SO...NOT IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TONIGHT...BUT COLD ADVECTION SHOULD
HELP TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S...SOME UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANY MORNING CLOUDINESS SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE MORNING AND
SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S
TOMORROW...WITH AROUND 70 TO MID 70S HIGHER TERRAIN. BETTER
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TOMORROW NIGHT WITH A LOW LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS OVER THE REGION AND LIGHT WINDS. LOWS IN THE 50S...WITH
40S IN COLDER SPOTS.

BROAD UPPER ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCING MEAN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. NOT MUCH MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM DOMINATED BY NORTHERN STREAM FLOW...SO
INTERVALS OF CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SLOWLY SPREADING EAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH
LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THIS WILL BE A PERIOD OF VERY LITTLE ATMOSPHERIC MOTION ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN U.S.  DURING THIS TIME...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL
BE SITUATED ALONG THE EAST COAST.  THE CLOSENESS OF THIS FRONT TO
OUR REGION COUPLED WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE INLAND WILL RESULT IN A
STAGNANT AIR MASS OF GRADUALLY INCREASING HUMIDITY THAT WILL MEAN A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE PERIOD.
A COLD FRONT FROM CANADA WILL HAVE REACHED ONLY THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES AND SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY MONDAY...AND THUS SHALL PROVIDE NO
RELIEF TO OUR REGION.

THERE WILL ALSO BE LITTLE NOTABLE VARIATION IN THE TEMPERATURE
PATTERN...WITH HIGHS EACH DAY FROM THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S.  LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE HIGH PEAKS OF
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO AROUND 60 DEGREES IN THE LOWER MID
HUDSON VALLEY.  LOWS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHTS WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOWER 50S IN THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS...TO
THE LOWER 60S DOWN THE HUDSON AND LOWER CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS...THOUGH
READINGS MAY HOLD UP IN THE MID 60S DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY SUNDAY
NIGHT.  NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS IN ALBANY THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST ARE
IN THE LOWER 80S AND LOWER 60S...RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS WITH MVFR TO SOME IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY WHERE RAIN HAS FALLEN AND LOWER STRATUS MAY
DEVELOP.  THOSE SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT AS THE UPPER
TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW TRACK FURTHER EAST OF THE REGION.  A
WEST-NORTHWEST GRADIENT WIND FLOW WILL REMAIN OVERNIGHT AT SPEEDS
10KTS OR LESS.

CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR TUESDAY MORNING /MAY BE A LITTLE DELAYED
AT KPSF WITH UPSLOPE CONDITIONS/ AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO
NEAR NORTHERN MAINE BY TUESDAY MORNING. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER ON TUESDAY. ON
WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED...BUT AN
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY CAUSE A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.

RH VALUES WILL BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT. RH
VALUES WILL BE 40 TO 55 PERCENT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR LESS
THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN SOUTH AT 15 MPH OR LESS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
REPORTS AND RIVER GAGE AT ROCKINGHAM IN NORTHERN WINDHAM COUNTY
EXPERIENCED FLASH FLOODING THIS EVENING.  COMBINATION OF TRAINING
CONVECTION AND NEARLY SATURATED GROUND RESULTED IN THE RAPID RISE OF
WATER.  AS OF 10 PM...PER COORDINATION AND RIVER GAGE...THE RIVER
LEVEL HAS JUST DROPPED BELOW FLOOD STAGE.  HOWEVER...WATER LEVELS
REMAIN ELEVATED AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR A
LITTLE LONGER.

THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTAL ARE EXPECTED MAINLY NORTH OF I-90 WITH
UP TO AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IN THUNDERSTORMS MAY RESULT IN SOME FLOODING OF LOW
LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. AREAS WHICH HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED A
ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MOST VULNERABLE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS/BGM
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS/BGM








000
FXUS61 KALY 290202
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1000 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO
NEAR NORTHERN MAINE BY TUESDAY MORNING. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER ON TUESDAY. ON
WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED...BUT AN
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY CAUSE A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
RESIDUAL SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE REGION WILL
SLOWLY DIMINISH AS THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW CONTINUE TO
TRACK FURTHER EAST OF THE REGION.  AS SEEN IN THE 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM
KBUF AND HERE...THE INVERSION NEAR H750 MAY INHIBIT TOO MUCH
CLEARING OVERNIGHT AS WE WILL DELAY THIS PROGRESS UNTIL VERY LATE
TONIGHT.  OTHERWISE...JUST MODIFIED HOURLY VALUES AND POPS AS THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE.

SOME PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED BY DAYBREAK...BUT UPSTREAM
CONDITIONS AND THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LEFT OVER OUR REGION IN THE
WAKE OF ALL THE RAIN SUGGESTS SOME AREAS MAY BE MOSTLY CLOUDY TO
CLOUDY THROUGH DAYBREAK. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHOULD BE STEADY ALL
NIGHT...SUGGESTING SOME LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS
PERSISTING IN SOME AREAS THROUGH THE NIGHT. SO...NOT IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TONIGHT...BUT COLD ADVECTION SHOULD
HELP TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S...SOME UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANY MORNING CLOUDINESS SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE MORNING AND
SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S
TOMORROW...WITH AROUND 70 TO MID 70S HIGHER TERRAIN. BETTER
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TOMORROW NIGHT WITH A LOW LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS OVER THE REGION AND LIGHT WINDS. LOWS IN THE 50S...WITH
40S IN COLDER SPOTS.

BROAD UPPER ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCING MEAN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. NOT MUCH MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM DOMINATED BY NORTHERN STREAM FLOW...SO
INTERVALS OF CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SLOWLY SPREADING EAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH
LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THIS WILL BE A PERIOD OF VERY LITTLE ATMOSPHERIC MOTION ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN U.S.  DURING THIS TIME...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL
BE SITUATED ALONG THE EAST COAST.  THE CLOSENESS OF THIS FRONT TO
OUR REGION COUPLED WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE INLAND WILL RESULT IN A
STAGNANT AIR MASS OF GRADUALLY INCREASING HUMIDITY THAT WILL MEAN A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE PERIOD.
A COLD FRONT FROM CANADA WILL HAVE REACHED ONLY THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES AND SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY MONDAY...AND THUS SHALL PROVIDE NO
RELIEF TO OUR REGION.

THERE WILL ALSO BE LITTLE NOTABLE VARIATION IN THE TEMPERATURE
PATTERN...WITH HIGHS EACH DAY FROM THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S.  LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE HIGH PEAKS OF
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO AROUND 60 DEGREES IN THE LOWER MID
HUDSON VALLEY.  LOWS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHTS WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOWER 50S IN THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS...TO
THE LOWER 60S DOWN THE HUDSON AND LOWER CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS...THOUGH
READINGS MAY HOLD UP IN THE MID 60S DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY SUNDAY
NIGHT.  NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS IN ALBANY THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST ARE
IN THE LOWER 80S AND LOWER 60S...RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS WITH MVFR TO SOME IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY WHERE RAIN HAS FALLEN AND LOWER STRATUS MAY
DEVELOP.  THOSE SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT AS THE UPPER
TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW TRACK FURTHER EAST OF THE REGION.  A
WEST-NORTHWEST GRADIENT WIND FLOW WILL REMAIN OVERNIGHT AT SPEEDS
10KTS OR LESS.

CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR TUESDAY MORNING /MAY BE A LITTLE DELAYED
AT KPSF WITH UPSLOPE CONDITIONS/ AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO
NEAR NORTHERN MAINE BY TUESDAY MORNING. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER ON TUESDAY. ON
WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED...BUT AN
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY CAUSE A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.

RH VALUES WILL BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT. RH
VALUES WILL BE 40 TO 55 PERCENT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR LESS
THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN SOUTH AT 15 MPH OR LESS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
REPORTS AND RIVER GAGE AT ROCKINGHAM IN NORTHERN WINDHAM COUNTY
EXPERIENCED FLASH FLOODING THIS EVENING.  COMBINATION OF TRAINING
CONVECTION AND NEARLY SATURATED GROUND RESULTED IN THE RAPID RISE OF
WATER.  AS OF 10 PM...PER COORDINATION AND RIVER GAGE...THE RIVER
LEVEL HAS JUST DROPPED BELOW FLOOD STAGE.  HOWEVER...WATER LEVELS
REMAIN ELEVATED AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR A
LITTLE LONGER.

THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTAL ARE EXPECTED MAINLY NORTH OF I-90 WITH
UP TO AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IN THUNDERSTORMS MAY RESULT IN SOME FLOODING OF LOW
LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. AREAS WHICH HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED A
ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MOST VULNERABLE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS/BGM
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS/BGM







000
FXUS61 KBOX 290103
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
902 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RATHER STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BY JULY STANDARDS WILL MOVE
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING WITH ITS ATTENDING COLD
FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT AND THEN OFFSHORE
TUE. MAINLY DRY AND LESS HUMID WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THIS WORK WEEK. THIS WEEKEND AN OFFSHORE FRONT MAY BUILD BACK
INTO NEW ENGLAND ALONG WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS WILL
RESULT IN THE RISK OF SHOWERS AND MORE HUMID WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

9 PM UPDATE...

ALTHOUGH THE ACTUAL SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS YET TO CROSS THE
REGION...THE BEST DYNAMICS/FORCING HAVE LIFTED INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND INSTABILITY WAS DIMINISHING.  THEREFORE...JUST A EXPECT
A FEW HIT AND MISS SHOWERS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BUT PROBABLY
NOT ANY ADDITIONAL THUNDER.  IN FACT...ANY LEFT OVER SPOT SHOWERS
SHOULD PRETTY MUCH COME TO AN END AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT
EVENTUALLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.  LOW TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 50S TO THE MIDDLE 60S BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY...RESULTING
IN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. NOT MUCH OF AIRMASS CHANGE SO HIGHS ONCE
AGAIN SHOULD TOP OFF IN 70S TO AROUND 80 BUT WITH SIGNIFICANTLY
LOWER HUMIDITY. WEAK GRADIENT SUPPORTS AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ALONG
BOTH COASTS. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAINLY DRY/QUIET AND SEASONABLE WEATHER WED THRU FRI
* POSSIBLY UNSETTLED AND MORE HUMID THIS WEEKEND

WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY...

LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST EARLY THIS PERIOD
HOWEVER THE MEAN MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS FAR ENOUGH EAST TO KEEP
THE DEEP PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE OFFSHORE. THUS MAINLY DRY
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL WED THRU FRI. HOWEVER GIVEN COOL TEMPS ALOFT
COMBINED WITH CYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW CAN/T RULE OUT A LOW RISK OF A
FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS/T-STORMS INLAND.

AS FOR TEMPS...GIVEN THE BELOW NORMAL 500 HEIGHTS EXPECT LATE
JULY/EARLY AUG SUN ANGLE TO PROVIDE MILD DAYS BUT DEW PTS IN THE 50S
WILL YIELD COMFORTABLY COOL NIGHTS.

THIS WEEKEND...

NORTHEAST TROUGH RETROGRADES TO THE MS VLY THIS WEEKEND. THIS OPENS
THE DOOR FOR TROPICAL MOISTURE AND THE OFFSHORE FRONT TO BACK INTO
NEW ENGLAND...ESPECIALLY EASTERN MA AND RI. THIS WILL INCREASE THE
RISK FOR SHOWERS AND T-STORMS ALONG WITH MORE HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING.

MAINLY VFR ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT. EXPECTING BRIEF
MVFR IN SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA THROUGH 29/02Z. PATCHY MVFR/IFR
POSSIBLE IN VALLEY FOG. VFR TUE WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES.
MAINLY VFR TUE NIGHT.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE THRU FRI
THEN LOWER CONFIDENCE INTO THIS WEEKEND.

VFR EXPECT A LOW RISK FOR PATCHY IFR IN EARLY MORNING FOG EACH DAY.
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSTMS MAINLY WEST OF
MHT AND ORH. BY SAT CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR COMING ONSHORE INTO EASTERN
MA AND RI ALONG WITH THREAT OF SHOWERS. MARGINAL VFR-MVFR LIKELY
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE NIGHT. MAIN CONCERN IS FOR ROUGH
SEAS ON SOUTH COASTAL WATERS...WHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES
INTO TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES WATERS TONIGHT...BUT
EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY DENSE FOG...AT LEAST EARLY
TONIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES LATE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE WATERS TUESDAY...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES.
SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDE OFFSHORE.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS WED THRU FRI THEN SE WINDS POSSIBLY
INCREASING SAT PENDING STRENGTH AND TRACK OF FRONTAL WAVE MOVING NE
FROM THE MID ATLC. FAIR VSBY WED THRU FRI THEN POSSIBLY LOWERING SAT
IN SHOWERS AND FOG.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR RIZ008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237-250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/NOCERA
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...BELK/NOCERA
MARINE...BELK/NOCERA



000
FXUS61 KBOX 290103
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
902 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RATHER STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BY JULY STANDARDS WILL MOVE
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING WITH ITS ATTENDING COLD
FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT AND THEN OFFSHORE
TUE. MAINLY DRY AND LESS HUMID WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THIS WORK WEEK. THIS WEEKEND AN OFFSHORE FRONT MAY BUILD BACK
INTO NEW ENGLAND ALONG WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS WILL
RESULT IN THE RISK OF SHOWERS AND MORE HUMID WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

9 PM UPDATE...

ALTHOUGH THE ACTUAL SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS YET TO CROSS THE
REGION...THE BEST DYNAMICS/FORCING HAVE LIFTED INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND INSTABILITY WAS DIMINISHING.  THEREFORE...JUST A EXPECT
A FEW HIT AND MISS SHOWERS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BUT PROBABLY
NOT ANY ADDITIONAL THUNDER.  IN FACT...ANY LEFT OVER SPOT SHOWERS
SHOULD PRETTY MUCH COME TO AN END AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT
EVENTUALLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.  LOW TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 50S TO THE MIDDLE 60S BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY...RESULTING
IN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. NOT MUCH OF AIRMASS CHANGE SO HIGHS ONCE
AGAIN SHOULD TOP OFF IN 70S TO AROUND 80 BUT WITH SIGNIFICANTLY
LOWER HUMIDITY. WEAK GRADIENT SUPPORTS AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ALONG
BOTH COASTS. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAINLY DRY/QUIET AND SEASONABLE WEATHER WED THRU FRI
* POSSIBLY UNSETTLED AND MORE HUMID THIS WEEKEND

WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY...

LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST EARLY THIS PERIOD
HOWEVER THE MEAN MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS FAR ENOUGH EAST TO KEEP
THE DEEP PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE OFFSHORE. THUS MAINLY DRY
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL WED THRU FRI. HOWEVER GIVEN COOL TEMPS ALOFT
COMBINED WITH CYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW CAN/T RULE OUT A LOW RISK OF A
FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS/T-STORMS INLAND.

AS FOR TEMPS...GIVEN THE BELOW NORMAL 500 HEIGHTS EXPECT LATE
JULY/EARLY AUG SUN ANGLE TO PROVIDE MILD DAYS BUT DEW PTS IN THE 50S
WILL YIELD COMFORTABLY COOL NIGHTS.

THIS WEEKEND...

NORTHEAST TROUGH RETROGRADES TO THE MS VLY THIS WEEKEND. THIS OPENS
THE DOOR FOR TROPICAL MOISTURE AND THE OFFSHORE FRONT TO BACK INTO
NEW ENGLAND...ESPECIALLY EASTERN MA AND RI. THIS WILL INCREASE THE
RISK FOR SHOWERS AND T-STORMS ALONG WITH MORE HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING.

MAINLY VFR ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT. EXPECTING BRIEF
MVFR IN SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA THROUGH 29/02Z. PATCHY MVFR/IFR
POSSIBLE IN VALLEY FOG. VFR TUE WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES.
MAINLY VFR TUE NIGHT.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE THRU FRI
THEN LOWER CONFIDENCE INTO THIS WEEKEND.

VFR EXPECT A LOW RISK FOR PATCHY IFR IN EARLY MORNING FOG EACH DAY.
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSTMS MAINLY WEST OF
MHT AND ORH. BY SAT CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR COMING ONSHORE INTO EASTERN
MA AND RI ALONG WITH THREAT OF SHOWERS. MARGINAL VFR-MVFR LIKELY
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE NIGHT. MAIN CONCERN IS FOR ROUGH
SEAS ON SOUTH COASTAL WATERS...WHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES
INTO TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES WATERS TONIGHT...BUT
EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY DENSE FOG...AT LEAST EARLY
TONIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES LATE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE WATERS TUESDAY...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES.
SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDE OFFSHORE.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS WED THRU FRI THEN SE WINDS POSSIBLY
INCREASING SAT PENDING STRENGTH AND TRACK OF FRONTAL WAVE MOVING NE
FROM THE MID ATLC. FAIR VSBY WED THRU FRI THEN POSSIBLY LOWERING SAT
IN SHOWERS AND FOG.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR RIZ008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237-250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/NOCERA
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...BELK/NOCERA
MARINE...BELK/NOCERA




000
FXUS61 KOKX 290020 CCA
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
819 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND REMAINS
ENTRENCHED THROUGH THE WEEK. WEAK LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP LATE
THIS WEEKEND ALONG THE COAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SHOWER THREAT COMING TO AN END AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY SWINGS INTO NEW
ENGLAND...COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST...AND DAYTIME INSTABILITY WANES.

GUSTY WSW FLOW WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING AS WELL.

THERE REMAINS IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP
CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FACING BEACHES THROUGH THROUGH
THIS EVENING.

SLOW CLEARING OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S IN NYC.
WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SUN GIVES WAY TO AFTERNOON CUMULUS THAT "PANCAKE" UNDER THE
SUBSIDENCE TO BKN AT TIMES.

CLEAR TUESDAY NIGHT.

MAX/MINS ARE A BLEND OF MOS WHICH HAD LITTLE SPREAD.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS
ALONG THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FACING BEACHES THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US WILL BE THE
DOMINATING FEATURE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK BEFORE WEAKENING
THIS COMING WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
WED-FRI WITH A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE STALLED FRONT WELL SHORE BACKS
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST.

GENERALLY EXPECTING DRY AND QUIET WED THROUGH WED NIGHT. 12Z NAM AND
GFS BOTH HINTING AT ISO SHOWER/TSTM DEVELOPMENT WELL NORTH/WEST OF
NYC METRO...CORRESPONDING WITH THE REGION UNDER A PASSING SHORTWAVE.
HAVE BEEN GOING BACK AND FORTH THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS ON WHETHER
ANYTHING WILL FORM SO WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED A LOW END SLIGHT CHC
FOR PCPN FOR THE AFTN WITH JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE LOWER ATMO
BEING INJECTED IN WITH THE SWLY FLOW. OVERALL THOUGH...MAJORITY OF
THE AREA WILL ENJOY DRY WX. SIMILAR STORY ON THURS WITH ANOTHER
PASSING SHORTWAVE AND A BIT MORE MOISTURE IN THE ATMO...CLOSER TO
NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AGAIN JUST HAVE MENTION FOR
SLIGHT CHC TSTM WELL NORTH/WEST OF NYC METRO.

POTENTIAL FOR A BIT MORE ACTIVE PERIOD FRIDAY HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...THE LINGERING STALLED FRONTAL SYSTEM WELL
OFFSHORE BEGINS TO BACK AS A WARM FRONT...WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE FORMING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LINE. ALOFT...THE
DOMINATING CLOSED LOW/ASSOCIATED DEEP TROUGH BEGINS TO EDGE OFF TO
THE NORTH AND EAST. THE REGION WILL REMAIN POSITIONED THOUGH UNDER A
BROAD TROUGH...WITH MULTIPLE DECENT SHORTWAVES RIDING THE
FLOW...EACH BRINGING ENOUGH FORCING TO TRIGGER SHOWERS AND/OR TSTMS.
HAVE ATTEMPTED TO TIME OUT THE PASSING AND INCLUDED POPS TO
CORRESPOND WHERE THERE IS BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE
TIMING...FRI NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN SAT AFTN/EVENING. MODELS DIVERGE
HOWEVER ON THE SOLUTION SUN-MON WITH THE 12Z GFS BEING THE MORE
PROGRESSION IN WEAKENING THE TROUGH INTO ALMOST A ZONAL FLOW WHILE
THE ECMWF LINGERS THE TROUGH INTO THE WORK WEEK. TAKING A BLEND OF
THE SOLUTIONS FOR NOW WITH THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY...HAVE MENTION OF
SLIGHT CHC POPS SUN AFTN-MON EVENING. THE TREND SUGGESTS ANY PCPN
SUN MIGHT BE ISOLATED IN NATURE...WITH MORE SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS
MONDAY WITH BOTH A PASSING SHORTWAVE AND THE FRONT STALLING JUST
EAST OF THE AREA. AS OF NOW...THE THREAT OF ANY STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS LOOKS TO BE VERY MINIMAL.

UNDER THE PERSISTING TROUGH...TEMPS WILL HOVER A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. RISING HEIGHTS BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND WILL AID IN PUSHING TEMPS TO RIGHT AROUND NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT.

VFR.

WINDS BACKING NW THIS EVENING AND DIMINISHING. GUSTS SUBSIDE
OVERNIGHT.

FOR TUESDAY...NW FLOW AROUND 10 KT BACKS W TO SW IN THE AFTN.


 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS COULD OCCASIONALLY BE MORE VEERED BY
ABOUT 20 DEGREES THAN FORECAST BEFORE 01-02Z. END TIME OF FREQUENT
GUSTS COULD BE OFF BY A COUPLE OF HOURS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS COULD OCCASIONALLY BE MORE VEERED BY
ABOUT 20 DEGREES THAN FORECAST BEFORE 01-02Z. END TIME OF
FREQUENT GUSTS COULD BE OFF BY A COUPLE OF HOURS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS COULD OCCASIONALLY BE MORE VEERED BY
ABOUT 20 DEGREES THAN FORECAST BEFORE 01-02Z. END TIME OF FREQUENT
GUSTS COULD BE OFF BY A COUPLE OF HOURS.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS COULD OCCASIONALLY BE MORE VEERED BY
ABOUT 20 DEGREES THAN FORECAST BEFORE 01-02Z. END TIME OF FREQUENT
GUSTS COULD BE OFF BY A COUPLE OF HOURS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS COULD OCCASIONALLY BE MORE VEERED BY
ABOUT 20 DEGREES THAN FORECAST BEFORE 01-02Z. END TIME OF FREQUENT
GUSTS COULD BE OFF BY A COUPLE OF HOURS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS COULD OCCASIONALLY BE MORE VEERED BY
ABOUT 20 DEGREES THAN FORECAST BEFORE 02-03Z. END TIME OF FREQUENT
GUSTS COULD BE OFF BY A COUPLE OF HOURS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...VFR.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM KBDR TO KFRG.
OTHERWISE...VFR.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH BELOW 25 KT THROUGH AROUND
MIDNIGHT. SOUTHERLY SWELLS MAY STILL REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN COASTAL OCEAN WATERS. NOTE
THAT WAVE-WATCH GUIDANCE APPEARS TOO HIGH BASED ON INITIAL
CONDITIONS.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUE.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS THEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...WITH A POSSIBLE RETURN TO 25 KT GUSTS AND 5 FT SEAS OVER THE
WEEKEND DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS/TONGUE
NEAR TERM...TONGUE
SHORT TERM...TONGUE
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...JC/MPS
MARINE...SEARS/TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...









000
FXUS61 KOKX 290020 CCA
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
819 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND REMAINS
ENTRENCHED THROUGH THE WEEK. WEAK LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP LATE
THIS WEEKEND ALONG THE COAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SHOWER THREAT COMING TO AN END AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY SWINGS INTO NEW
ENGLAND...COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST...AND DAYTIME INSTABILITY WANES.

GUSTY WSW FLOW WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING AS WELL.

THERE REMAINS IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP
CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FACING BEACHES THROUGH THROUGH
THIS EVENING.

SLOW CLEARING OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S IN NYC.
WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SUN GIVES WAY TO AFTERNOON CUMULUS THAT "PANCAKE" UNDER THE
SUBSIDENCE TO BKN AT TIMES.

CLEAR TUESDAY NIGHT.

MAX/MINS ARE A BLEND OF MOS WHICH HAD LITTLE SPREAD.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS
ALONG THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FACING BEACHES THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US WILL BE THE
DOMINATING FEATURE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK BEFORE WEAKENING
THIS COMING WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
WED-FRI WITH A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE STALLED FRONT WELL SHORE BACKS
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST.

GENERALLY EXPECTING DRY AND QUIET WED THROUGH WED NIGHT. 12Z NAM AND
GFS BOTH HINTING AT ISO SHOWER/TSTM DEVELOPMENT WELL NORTH/WEST OF
NYC METRO...CORRESPONDING WITH THE REGION UNDER A PASSING SHORTWAVE.
HAVE BEEN GOING BACK AND FORTH THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS ON WHETHER
ANYTHING WILL FORM SO WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED A LOW END SLIGHT CHC
FOR PCPN FOR THE AFTN WITH JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE LOWER ATMO
BEING INJECTED IN WITH THE SWLY FLOW. OVERALL THOUGH...MAJORITY OF
THE AREA WILL ENJOY DRY WX. SIMILAR STORY ON THURS WITH ANOTHER
PASSING SHORTWAVE AND A BIT MORE MOISTURE IN THE ATMO...CLOSER TO
NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AGAIN JUST HAVE MENTION FOR
SLIGHT CHC TSTM WELL NORTH/WEST OF NYC METRO.

POTENTIAL FOR A BIT MORE ACTIVE PERIOD FRIDAY HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...THE LINGERING STALLED FRONTAL SYSTEM WELL
OFFSHORE BEGINS TO BACK AS A WARM FRONT...WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE FORMING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LINE. ALOFT...THE
DOMINATING CLOSED LOW/ASSOCIATED DEEP TROUGH BEGINS TO EDGE OFF TO
THE NORTH AND EAST. THE REGION WILL REMAIN POSITIONED THOUGH UNDER A
BROAD TROUGH...WITH MULTIPLE DECENT SHORTWAVES RIDING THE
FLOW...EACH BRINGING ENOUGH FORCING TO TRIGGER SHOWERS AND/OR TSTMS.
HAVE ATTEMPTED TO TIME OUT THE PASSING AND INCLUDED POPS TO
CORRESPOND WHERE THERE IS BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE
TIMING...FRI NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN SAT AFTN/EVENING. MODELS DIVERGE
HOWEVER ON THE SOLUTION SUN-MON WITH THE 12Z GFS BEING THE MORE
PROGRESSION IN WEAKENING THE TROUGH INTO ALMOST A ZONAL FLOW WHILE
THE ECMWF LINGERS THE TROUGH INTO THE WORK WEEK. TAKING A BLEND OF
THE SOLUTIONS FOR NOW WITH THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY...HAVE MENTION OF
SLIGHT CHC POPS SUN AFTN-MON EVENING. THE TREND SUGGESTS ANY PCPN
SUN MIGHT BE ISOLATED IN NATURE...WITH MORE SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS
MONDAY WITH BOTH A PASSING SHORTWAVE AND THE FRONT STALLING JUST
EAST OF THE AREA. AS OF NOW...THE THREAT OF ANY STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS LOOKS TO BE VERY MINIMAL.

UNDER THE PERSISTING TROUGH...TEMPS WILL HOVER A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. RISING HEIGHTS BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND WILL AID IN PUSHING TEMPS TO RIGHT AROUND NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT.

VFR.

WINDS BACKING NW THIS EVENING AND DIMINISHING. GUSTS SUBSIDE
OVERNIGHT.

FOR TUESDAY...NW FLOW AROUND 10 KT BACKS W TO SW IN THE AFTN.


 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS COULD OCCASIONALLY BE MORE VEERED BY
ABOUT 20 DEGREES THAN FORECAST BEFORE 01-02Z. END TIME OF FREQUENT
GUSTS COULD BE OFF BY A COUPLE OF HOURS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS COULD OCCASIONALLY BE MORE VEERED BY
ABOUT 20 DEGREES THAN FORECAST BEFORE 01-02Z. END TIME OF
FREQUENT GUSTS COULD BE OFF BY A COUPLE OF HOURS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS COULD OCCASIONALLY BE MORE VEERED BY
ABOUT 20 DEGREES THAN FORECAST BEFORE 01-02Z. END TIME OF FREQUENT
GUSTS COULD BE OFF BY A COUPLE OF HOURS.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS COULD OCCASIONALLY BE MORE VEERED BY
ABOUT 20 DEGREES THAN FORECAST BEFORE 01-02Z. END TIME OF FREQUENT
GUSTS COULD BE OFF BY A COUPLE OF HOURS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS COULD OCCASIONALLY BE MORE VEERED BY
ABOUT 20 DEGREES THAN FORECAST BEFORE 01-02Z. END TIME OF FREQUENT
GUSTS COULD BE OFF BY A COUPLE OF HOURS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS COULD OCCASIONALLY BE MORE VEERED BY
ABOUT 20 DEGREES THAN FORECAST BEFORE 02-03Z. END TIME OF FREQUENT
GUSTS COULD BE OFF BY A COUPLE OF HOURS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...VFR.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM KBDR TO KFRG.
OTHERWISE...VFR.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH BELOW 25 KT THROUGH AROUND
MIDNIGHT. SOUTHERLY SWELLS MAY STILL REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN COASTAL OCEAN WATERS. NOTE
THAT WAVE-WATCH GUIDANCE APPEARS TOO HIGH BASED ON INITIAL
CONDITIONS.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUE.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS THEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...WITH A POSSIBLE RETURN TO 25 KT GUSTS AND 5 FT SEAS OVER THE
WEEKEND DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS/TONGUE
NEAR TERM...TONGUE
SHORT TERM...TONGUE
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...JC/MPS
MARINE...SEARS/TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...









000
FXUS61 KOKX 290020 CCA
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
819 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND REMAINS
ENTRENCHED THROUGH THE WEEK. WEAK LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP LATE
THIS WEEKEND ALONG THE COAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SHOWER THREAT COMING TO AN END AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY SWINGS INTO NEW
ENGLAND...COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST...AND DAYTIME INSTABILITY WANES.

GUSTY WSW FLOW WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING AS WELL.

THERE REMAINS IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP
CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FACING BEACHES THROUGH THROUGH
THIS EVENING.

SLOW CLEARING OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S IN NYC.
WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SUN GIVES WAY TO AFTERNOON CUMULUS THAT "PANCAKE" UNDER THE
SUBSIDENCE TO BKN AT TIMES.

CLEAR TUESDAY NIGHT.

MAX/MINS ARE A BLEND OF MOS WHICH HAD LITTLE SPREAD.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS
ALONG THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FACING BEACHES THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US WILL BE THE
DOMINATING FEATURE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK BEFORE WEAKENING
THIS COMING WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
WED-FRI WITH A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE STALLED FRONT WELL SHORE BACKS
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST.

GENERALLY EXPECTING DRY AND QUIET WED THROUGH WED NIGHT. 12Z NAM AND
GFS BOTH HINTING AT ISO SHOWER/TSTM DEVELOPMENT WELL NORTH/WEST OF
NYC METRO...CORRESPONDING WITH THE REGION UNDER A PASSING SHORTWAVE.
HAVE BEEN GOING BACK AND FORTH THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS ON WHETHER
ANYTHING WILL FORM SO WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED A LOW END SLIGHT CHC
FOR PCPN FOR THE AFTN WITH JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE LOWER ATMO
BEING INJECTED IN WITH THE SWLY FLOW. OVERALL THOUGH...MAJORITY OF
THE AREA WILL ENJOY DRY WX. SIMILAR STORY ON THURS WITH ANOTHER
PASSING SHORTWAVE AND A BIT MORE MOISTURE IN THE ATMO...CLOSER TO
NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AGAIN JUST HAVE MENTION FOR
SLIGHT CHC TSTM WELL NORTH/WEST OF NYC METRO.

POTENTIAL FOR A BIT MORE ACTIVE PERIOD FRIDAY HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...THE LINGERING STALLED FRONTAL SYSTEM WELL
OFFSHORE BEGINS TO BACK AS A WARM FRONT...WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE FORMING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LINE. ALOFT...THE
DOMINATING CLOSED LOW/ASSOCIATED DEEP TROUGH BEGINS TO EDGE OFF TO
THE NORTH AND EAST. THE REGION WILL REMAIN POSITIONED THOUGH UNDER A
BROAD TROUGH...WITH MULTIPLE DECENT SHORTWAVES RIDING THE
FLOW...EACH BRINGING ENOUGH FORCING TO TRIGGER SHOWERS AND/OR TSTMS.
HAVE ATTEMPTED TO TIME OUT THE PASSING AND INCLUDED POPS TO
CORRESPOND WHERE THERE IS BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE
TIMING...FRI NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN SAT AFTN/EVENING. MODELS DIVERGE
HOWEVER ON THE SOLUTION SUN-MON WITH THE 12Z GFS BEING THE MORE
PROGRESSION IN WEAKENING THE TROUGH INTO ALMOST A ZONAL FLOW WHILE
THE ECMWF LINGERS THE TROUGH INTO THE WORK WEEK. TAKING A BLEND OF
THE SOLUTIONS FOR NOW WITH THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY...HAVE MENTION OF
SLIGHT CHC POPS SUN AFTN-MON EVENING. THE TREND SUGGESTS ANY PCPN
SUN MIGHT BE ISOLATED IN NATURE...WITH MORE SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS
MONDAY WITH BOTH A PASSING SHORTWAVE AND THE FRONT STALLING JUST
EAST OF THE AREA. AS OF NOW...THE THREAT OF ANY STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS LOOKS TO BE VERY MINIMAL.

UNDER THE PERSISTING TROUGH...TEMPS WILL HOVER A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. RISING HEIGHTS BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND WILL AID IN PUSHING TEMPS TO RIGHT AROUND NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT.

VFR.

WINDS BACKING NW THIS EVENING AND DIMINISHING. GUSTS SUBSIDE
OVERNIGHT.

FOR TUESDAY...NW FLOW AROUND 10 KT BACKS W TO SW IN THE AFTN.


 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS COULD OCCASIONALLY BE MORE VEERED BY
ABOUT 20 DEGREES THAN FORECAST BEFORE 01-02Z. END TIME OF FREQUENT
GUSTS COULD BE OFF BY A COUPLE OF HOURS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS COULD OCCASIONALLY BE MORE VEERED BY
ABOUT 20 DEGREES THAN FORECAST BEFORE 01-02Z. END TIME OF
FREQUENT GUSTS COULD BE OFF BY A COUPLE OF HOURS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS COULD OCCASIONALLY BE MORE VEERED BY
ABOUT 20 DEGREES THAN FORECAST BEFORE 01-02Z. END TIME OF FREQUENT
GUSTS COULD BE OFF BY A COUPLE OF HOURS.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS COULD OCCASIONALLY BE MORE VEERED BY
ABOUT 20 DEGREES THAN FORECAST BEFORE 01-02Z. END TIME OF FREQUENT
GUSTS COULD BE OFF BY A COUPLE OF HOURS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS COULD OCCASIONALLY BE MORE VEERED BY
ABOUT 20 DEGREES THAN FORECAST BEFORE 01-02Z. END TIME OF FREQUENT
GUSTS COULD BE OFF BY A COUPLE OF HOURS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS COULD OCCASIONALLY BE MORE VEERED BY
ABOUT 20 DEGREES THAN FORECAST BEFORE 02-03Z. END TIME OF FREQUENT
GUSTS COULD BE OFF BY A COUPLE OF HOURS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...VFR.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM KBDR TO KFRG.
OTHERWISE...VFR.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH BELOW 25 KT THROUGH AROUND
MIDNIGHT. SOUTHERLY SWELLS MAY STILL REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN COASTAL OCEAN WATERS. NOTE
THAT WAVE-WATCH GUIDANCE APPEARS TOO HIGH BASED ON INITIAL
CONDITIONS.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUE.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS THEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...WITH A POSSIBLE RETURN TO 25 KT GUSTS AND 5 FT SEAS OVER THE
WEEKEND DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS/TONGUE
NEAR TERM...TONGUE
SHORT TERM...TONGUE
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...JC/MPS
MARINE...SEARS/TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...









000
FXUS61 KOKX 290020 CCA
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
819 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND REMAINS
ENTRENCHED THROUGH THE WEEK. WEAK LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP LATE
THIS WEEKEND ALONG THE COAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SHOWER THREAT COMING TO AN END AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY SWINGS INTO NEW
ENGLAND...COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST...AND DAYTIME INSTABILITY WANES.

GUSTY WSW FLOW WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING AS WELL.

THERE REMAINS IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP
CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FACING BEACHES THROUGH THROUGH
THIS EVENING.

SLOW CLEARING OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S IN NYC.
WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SUN GIVES WAY TO AFTERNOON CUMULUS THAT "PANCAKE" UNDER THE
SUBSIDENCE TO BKN AT TIMES.

CLEAR TUESDAY NIGHT.

MAX/MINS ARE A BLEND OF MOS WHICH HAD LITTLE SPREAD.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS
ALONG THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FACING BEACHES THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US WILL BE THE
DOMINATING FEATURE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK BEFORE WEAKENING
THIS COMING WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
WED-FRI WITH A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE STALLED FRONT WELL SHORE BACKS
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST.

GENERALLY EXPECTING DRY AND QUIET WED THROUGH WED NIGHT. 12Z NAM AND
GFS BOTH HINTING AT ISO SHOWER/TSTM DEVELOPMENT WELL NORTH/WEST OF
NYC METRO...CORRESPONDING WITH THE REGION UNDER A PASSING SHORTWAVE.
HAVE BEEN GOING BACK AND FORTH THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS ON WHETHER
ANYTHING WILL FORM SO WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED A LOW END SLIGHT CHC
FOR PCPN FOR THE AFTN WITH JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE LOWER ATMO
BEING INJECTED IN WITH THE SWLY FLOW. OVERALL THOUGH...MAJORITY OF
THE AREA WILL ENJOY DRY WX. SIMILAR STORY ON THURS WITH ANOTHER
PASSING SHORTWAVE AND A BIT MORE MOISTURE IN THE ATMO...CLOSER TO
NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AGAIN JUST HAVE MENTION FOR
SLIGHT CHC TSTM WELL NORTH/WEST OF NYC METRO.

POTENTIAL FOR A BIT MORE ACTIVE PERIOD FRIDAY HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...THE LINGERING STALLED FRONTAL SYSTEM WELL
OFFSHORE BEGINS TO BACK AS A WARM FRONT...WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE FORMING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LINE. ALOFT...THE
DOMINATING CLOSED LOW/ASSOCIATED DEEP TROUGH BEGINS TO EDGE OFF TO
THE NORTH AND EAST. THE REGION WILL REMAIN POSITIONED THOUGH UNDER A
BROAD TROUGH...WITH MULTIPLE DECENT SHORTWAVES RIDING THE
FLOW...EACH BRINGING ENOUGH FORCING TO TRIGGER SHOWERS AND/OR TSTMS.
HAVE ATTEMPTED TO TIME OUT THE PASSING AND INCLUDED POPS TO
CORRESPOND WHERE THERE IS BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE
TIMING...FRI NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN SAT AFTN/EVENING. MODELS DIVERGE
HOWEVER ON THE SOLUTION SUN-MON WITH THE 12Z GFS BEING THE MORE
PROGRESSION IN WEAKENING THE TROUGH INTO ALMOST A ZONAL FLOW WHILE
THE ECMWF LINGERS THE TROUGH INTO THE WORK WEEK. TAKING A BLEND OF
THE SOLUTIONS FOR NOW WITH THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY...HAVE MENTION OF
SLIGHT CHC POPS SUN AFTN-MON EVENING. THE TREND SUGGESTS ANY PCPN
SUN MIGHT BE ISOLATED IN NATURE...WITH MORE SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS
MONDAY WITH BOTH A PASSING SHORTWAVE AND THE FRONT STALLING JUST
EAST OF THE AREA. AS OF NOW...THE THREAT OF ANY STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS LOOKS TO BE VERY MINIMAL.

UNDER THE PERSISTING TROUGH...TEMPS WILL HOVER A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. RISING HEIGHTS BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND WILL AID IN PUSHING TEMPS TO RIGHT AROUND NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT.

VFR.

WINDS BACKING NW THIS EVENING AND DIMINISHING. GUSTS SUBSIDE
OVERNIGHT.

FOR TUESDAY...NW FLOW AROUND 10 KT BACKS W TO SW IN THE AFTN.


 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS COULD OCCASIONALLY BE MORE VEERED BY
ABOUT 20 DEGREES THAN FORECAST BEFORE 01-02Z. END TIME OF FREQUENT
GUSTS COULD BE OFF BY A COUPLE OF HOURS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS COULD OCCASIONALLY BE MORE VEERED BY
ABOUT 20 DEGREES THAN FORECAST BEFORE 01-02Z. END TIME OF
FREQUENT GUSTS COULD BE OFF BY A COUPLE OF HOURS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS COULD OCCASIONALLY BE MORE VEERED BY
ABOUT 20 DEGREES THAN FORECAST BEFORE 01-02Z. END TIME OF FREQUENT
GUSTS COULD BE OFF BY A COUPLE OF HOURS.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS COULD OCCASIONALLY BE MORE VEERED BY
ABOUT 20 DEGREES THAN FORECAST BEFORE 01-02Z. END TIME OF FREQUENT
GUSTS COULD BE OFF BY A COUPLE OF HOURS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS COULD OCCASIONALLY BE MORE VEERED BY
ABOUT 20 DEGREES THAN FORECAST BEFORE 01-02Z. END TIME OF FREQUENT
GUSTS COULD BE OFF BY A COUPLE OF HOURS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS COULD OCCASIONALLY BE MORE VEERED BY
ABOUT 20 DEGREES THAN FORECAST BEFORE 02-03Z. END TIME OF FREQUENT
GUSTS COULD BE OFF BY A COUPLE OF HOURS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...VFR.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM KBDR TO KFRG.
OTHERWISE...VFR.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH BELOW 25 KT THROUGH AROUND
MIDNIGHT. SOUTHERLY SWELLS MAY STILL REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN COASTAL OCEAN WATERS. NOTE
THAT WAVE-WATCH GUIDANCE APPEARS TOO HIGH BASED ON INITIAL
CONDITIONS.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUE.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS THEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...WITH A POSSIBLE RETURN TO 25 KT GUSTS AND 5 FT SEAS OVER THE
WEEKEND DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS/TONGUE
NEAR TERM...TONGUE
SHORT TERM...TONGUE
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...JC/MPS
MARINE...SEARS/TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...









000
FXUS61 KOKX 282341
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
741 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND REMAINS
ENTRENCHED THROUGH THE WEEK. WEAK LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP LATE
THIS WEEKEND ALONG THE COAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SHOWER THREAT COMING TO AN END AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY SWINGS INTO NEW
ENGLAND...COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST...AND DAYTIME INSTABILITY WANES.

GUSTY WSW FLOW WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING AS WELL.

THERE REMAINS IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP
CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FACING BEACHES THROUGH THROUGH
THIS EVENING.

SLOW CLEARING OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S IN NYC.
WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SUN GIVES WAY TO AFTERNOON CUMULUS THAT "PANCAKE" UNDER THE
SUBSIDENCE TO BKN AT TIMES.

CLEAR TUESDAY NIGHT.

MAX/MINS ARE A BLEND OF MOS WHICH HAD LITTLE SPREAD.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS
ALONG THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FACING BEACHES THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US WILL BE THE
DOMINATING FEATURE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK BEFORE WEAKENING
THIS COMING WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
WED-FRI WITH A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE STALLED FRONT WELL SHORE BACKS
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST.

GENERALLY EXPECTING DRY AND QUIET WED THROUGH WED NIGHT. 12Z NAM AND
GFS BOTH HINTING AT ISO SHOWER/TSTM DEVELOPMENT WELL NORTH/WEST OF
NYC METRO...CORRESPONDING WITH THE REGION UNDER A PASSING SHORTWAVE.
HAVE BEEN GOING BACK AND FORTH THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS ON WHETHER
ANYTHING WILL FORM SO WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED A LOW END SLIGHT CHC
FOR PCPN FOR THE AFTN WITH JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE LOWER ATMO
BEING INJECTED IN WITH THE SWLY FLOW. OVERALL THOUGH...MAJORITY OF
THE AREA WILL ENJOY DRY WX. SIMILAR STORY ON THURS WITH ANOTHER
PASSING SHORTWAVE AND A BIT MORE MOISTURE IN THE ATMO...CLOSER TO
NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AGAIN JUST HAVE MENTION FOR
SLIGHT CHC TSTM WELL NORTH/WEST OF NYC METRO.

POTENTIAL FOR A BIT MORE ACTIVE PERIOD FRIDAY HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...THE LINGERING STALLED FRONTAL SYSTEM WELL
OFFSHORE BEGINS TO BACK AS A WARM FRONT...WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE FORMING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LINE. ALOFT...THE
DOMINATING CLOSED LOW/ASSOCIATED DEEP TROUGH BEGINS TO EDGE OFF TO
THE NORTH AND EAST. THE REGION WILL REMAIN POSITIONED THOUGH UNDER A
BROAD TROUGH...WITH MULTIPLE DECENT SHORTWAVES RIDING THE
FLOW...EACH BRINGING ENOUGH FORCING TO TRIGGER SHOWERS AND/OR TSTMS.
HAVE ATTEMPTED TO TIME OUT THE PASSING AND INCLUDED POPS TO
CORRESPOND WHERE THERE IS BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE
TIMING...FRI NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN SAT AFTN/EVENING. MODELS DIVERGE
HOWEVER ON THE SOLUTION SUN-MON WITH THE 12Z GFS BEING THE MORE
PROGRESSION IN WEAKENING THE TROUGH INTO ALMOST A ZONAL FLOW WHILE
THE ECMWF LINGERS THE TROUGH INTO THE WORK WEEK. TAKING A BLEND OF
THE SOLUTIONS FOR NOW WITH THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY...HAVE MENTION OF
SLIGHT CHC POPS SUN AFTN-MON EVENING. THE TREND SUGGESTS ANY PCPN
SUN MIGHT BE ISOLATED IN NATURE...WITH MORE SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS
MONDAY WITH BOTH A PASSING SHORTWAVE AND THE FRONT STALLING JUST
EAST OF THE AREA. AS OF NOW...THE THREAT OF ANY STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS LOOKS TO BE VERY MINIMAL.

UNDER THE PERSISTING TROUGH...TEMPS WILL HOVER A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. RISING HEIGHTS BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND WILL AID IN PUSHING TEMPS TO RIGHT AROUND NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT.

VFR.

WINDS BACKING NW THIS EVENING AND DIMINISHING. GUSTS SUBSIDE
OVERNIGHT.

FOR TUESDAY...NW FLOW AROUND 10 KT BACKS W TO SW IN THE AFTN.


 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS COULD OCCASIONALLY BE MORE BACKED BY
ABOUT 20 DEGREES THAN FORECAST BEFORE 01-02Z. END TIME OF FREQUENT
GUSTS COULD BE OFF BY A COUPLE OF HOURS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS COULD OCCASIONALLY BE MORE BACKED BY
ABOUT 20 DEGREES THAN FORECAST BEFORE 01-02Z. END TIME OF FREQUENT
GUSTS COULD BE OFF BY A COUPLE OF HOURS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS COULD OCCASIONALLY BE MORE BACKED BY
ABOUT 20 DEGREES THAN FORECAST BEFORE 01-02Z. END TIME OF FREQUENT
GUSTS COULD BE OFF BY A COUPLE OF HOURS.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS COULD OCCASIONALLY BE MORE BACKED BY
ABOUT 20 DEGREES THAN FORECAST BEFORE 01-02Z. END TIME OF FREQUENT
GUSTS COULD BE OFF BY A COUPLE OF HOURS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS COULD OCCASIONALLY BE MORE BACKED BY
ABOUT 20 DEGREES THAN FORECAST BEFORE 01-02Z. END TIME OF FREQUENT
GUSTS COULD BE OFF BY A COUPLE OF HOURS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS COULD OCCASIONALLY BE MORE BACKED BY
ABOUT 20 DEGREES THAN FORECAST BEFORE 02-03Z. END TIME OF FREQUENT
GUSTS COULD BE OFF BY A COUPLE OF HOURS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...VFR.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM KBDR TO KFRG.
OTHERWISE...VFR.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH BELOW 25 KT THROUGH AROUND
MIDNIGHT. SOUTHERLY SWELLS MAY STILL REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN COASTAL OCEAN WATERS. NOTE
THAT WAVE-WATCH GUIDANCE APPEARS TOO HIGH BASED ON INITIAL
CONDITIONS.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUE.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS THEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...WITH A POSSIBLE RETURN TO 25 KT GUSTS AND 5 FT SEAS OVER THE
WEEKEND DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS/TONGUE
NEAR TERM...TONGUE
SHORT TERM...TONGUE
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...JC/MPS
MARINE...SEARS/TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...







000
FXUS61 KOKX 282341
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
741 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND REMAINS
ENTRENCHED THROUGH THE WEEK. WEAK LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP LATE
THIS WEEKEND ALONG THE COAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SHOWER THREAT COMING TO AN END AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY SWINGS INTO NEW
ENGLAND...COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST...AND DAYTIME INSTABILITY WANES.

GUSTY WSW FLOW WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING AS WELL.

THERE REMAINS IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP
CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FACING BEACHES THROUGH THROUGH
THIS EVENING.

SLOW CLEARING OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S IN NYC.
WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SUN GIVES WAY TO AFTERNOON CUMULUS THAT "PANCAKE" UNDER THE
SUBSIDENCE TO BKN AT TIMES.

CLEAR TUESDAY NIGHT.

MAX/MINS ARE A BLEND OF MOS WHICH HAD LITTLE SPREAD.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS
ALONG THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FACING BEACHES THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US WILL BE THE
DOMINATING FEATURE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK BEFORE WEAKENING
THIS COMING WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
WED-FRI WITH A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE STALLED FRONT WELL SHORE BACKS
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST.

GENERALLY EXPECTING DRY AND QUIET WED THROUGH WED NIGHT. 12Z NAM AND
GFS BOTH HINTING AT ISO SHOWER/TSTM DEVELOPMENT WELL NORTH/WEST OF
NYC METRO...CORRESPONDING WITH THE REGION UNDER A PASSING SHORTWAVE.
HAVE BEEN GOING BACK AND FORTH THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS ON WHETHER
ANYTHING WILL FORM SO WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED A LOW END SLIGHT CHC
FOR PCPN FOR THE AFTN WITH JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE LOWER ATMO
BEING INJECTED IN WITH THE SWLY FLOW. OVERALL THOUGH...MAJORITY OF
THE AREA WILL ENJOY DRY WX. SIMILAR STORY ON THURS WITH ANOTHER
PASSING SHORTWAVE AND A BIT MORE MOISTURE IN THE ATMO...CLOSER TO
NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AGAIN JUST HAVE MENTION FOR
SLIGHT CHC TSTM WELL NORTH/WEST OF NYC METRO.

POTENTIAL FOR A BIT MORE ACTIVE PERIOD FRIDAY HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...THE LINGERING STALLED FRONTAL SYSTEM WELL
OFFSHORE BEGINS TO BACK AS A WARM FRONT...WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE FORMING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LINE. ALOFT...THE
DOMINATING CLOSED LOW/ASSOCIATED DEEP TROUGH BEGINS TO EDGE OFF TO
THE NORTH AND EAST. THE REGION WILL REMAIN POSITIONED THOUGH UNDER A
BROAD TROUGH...WITH MULTIPLE DECENT SHORTWAVES RIDING THE
FLOW...EACH BRINGING ENOUGH FORCING TO TRIGGER SHOWERS AND/OR TSTMS.
HAVE ATTEMPTED TO TIME OUT THE PASSING AND INCLUDED POPS TO
CORRESPOND WHERE THERE IS BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE
TIMING...FRI NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN SAT AFTN/EVENING. MODELS DIVERGE
HOWEVER ON THE SOLUTION SUN-MON WITH THE 12Z GFS BEING THE MORE
PROGRESSION IN WEAKENING THE TROUGH INTO ALMOST A ZONAL FLOW WHILE
THE ECMWF LINGERS THE TROUGH INTO THE WORK WEEK. TAKING A BLEND OF
THE SOLUTIONS FOR NOW WITH THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY...HAVE MENTION OF
SLIGHT CHC POPS SUN AFTN-MON EVENING. THE TREND SUGGESTS ANY PCPN
SUN MIGHT BE ISOLATED IN NATURE...WITH MORE SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS
MONDAY WITH BOTH A PASSING SHORTWAVE AND THE FRONT STALLING JUST
EAST OF THE AREA. AS OF NOW...THE THREAT OF ANY STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS LOOKS TO BE VERY MINIMAL.

UNDER THE PERSISTING TROUGH...TEMPS WILL HOVER A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. RISING HEIGHTS BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND WILL AID IN PUSHING TEMPS TO RIGHT AROUND NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT.

VFR.

WINDS BACKING NW THIS EVENING AND DIMINISHING. GUSTS SUBSIDE
OVERNIGHT.

FOR TUESDAY...NW FLOW AROUND 10 KT BACKS W TO SW IN THE AFTN.


 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS COULD OCCASIONALLY BE MORE BACKED BY
ABOUT 20 DEGREES THAN FORECAST BEFORE 01-02Z. END TIME OF FREQUENT
GUSTS COULD BE OFF BY A COUPLE OF HOURS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS COULD OCCASIONALLY BE MORE BACKED BY
ABOUT 20 DEGREES THAN FORECAST BEFORE 01-02Z. END TIME OF FREQUENT
GUSTS COULD BE OFF BY A COUPLE OF HOURS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS COULD OCCASIONALLY BE MORE BACKED BY
ABOUT 20 DEGREES THAN FORECAST BEFORE 01-02Z. END TIME OF FREQUENT
GUSTS COULD BE OFF BY A COUPLE OF HOURS.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS COULD OCCASIONALLY BE MORE BACKED BY
ABOUT 20 DEGREES THAN FORECAST BEFORE 01-02Z. END TIME OF FREQUENT
GUSTS COULD BE OFF BY A COUPLE OF HOURS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS COULD OCCASIONALLY BE MORE BACKED BY
ABOUT 20 DEGREES THAN FORECAST BEFORE 01-02Z. END TIME OF FREQUENT
GUSTS COULD BE OFF BY A COUPLE OF HOURS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS COULD OCCASIONALLY BE MORE BACKED BY
ABOUT 20 DEGREES THAN FORECAST BEFORE 02-03Z. END TIME OF FREQUENT
GUSTS COULD BE OFF BY A COUPLE OF HOURS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...VFR.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM KBDR TO KFRG.
OTHERWISE...VFR.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH BELOW 25 KT THROUGH AROUND
MIDNIGHT. SOUTHERLY SWELLS MAY STILL REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN COASTAL OCEAN WATERS. NOTE
THAT WAVE-WATCH GUIDANCE APPEARS TOO HIGH BASED ON INITIAL
CONDITIONS.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUE.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS THEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...WITH A POSSIBLE RETURN TO 25 KT GUSTS AND 5 FT SEAS OVER THE
WEEKEND DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS/TONGUE
NEAR TERM...TONGUE
SHORT TERM...TONGUE
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...JC/MPS
MARINE...SEARS/TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...







000
FXUS61 KOKX 282341
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
741 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND REMAINS
ENTRENCHED THROUGH THE WEEK. WEAK LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP LATE
THIS WEEKEND ALONG THE COAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SHOWER THREAT COMING TO AN END AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY SWINGS INTO NEW
ENGLAND...COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST...AND DAYTIME INSTABILITY WANES.

GUSTY WSW FLOW WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING AS WELL.

THERE REMAINS IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP
CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FACING BEACHES THROUGH THROUGH
THIS EVENING.

SLOW CLEARING OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S IN NYC.
WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SUN GIVES WAY TO AFTERNOON CUMULUS THAT "PANCAKE" UNDER THE
SUBSIDENCE TO BKN AT TIMES.

CLEAR TUESDAY NIGHT.

MAX/MINS ARE A BLEND OF MOS WHICH HAD LITTLE SPREAD.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS
ALONG THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FACING BEACHES THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US WILL BE THE
DOMINATING FEATURE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK BEFORE WEAKENING
THIS COMING WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
WED-FRI WITH A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE STALLED FRONT WELL SHORE BACKS
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST.

GENERALLY EXPECTING DRY AND QUIET WED THROUGH WED NIGHT. 12Z NAM AND
GFS BOTH HINTING AT ISO SHOWER/TSTM DEVELOPMENT WELL NORTH/WEST OF
NYC METRO...CORRESPONDING WITH THE REGION UNDER A PASSING SHORTWAVE.
HAVE BEEN GOING BACK AND FORTH THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS ON WHETHER
ANYTHING WILL FORM SO WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED A LOW END SLIGHT CHC
FOR PCPN FOR THE AFTN WITH JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE LOWER ATMO
BEING INJECTED IN WITH THE SWLY FLOW. OVERALL THOUGH...MAJORITY OF
THE AREA WILL ENJOY DRY WX. SIMILAR STORY ON THURS WITH ANOTHER
PASSING SHORTWAVE AND A BIT MORE MOISTURE IN THE ATMO...CLOSER TO
NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AGAIN JUST HAVE MENTION FOR
SLIGHT CHC TSTM WELL NORTH/WEST OF NYC METRO.

POTENTIAL FOR A BIT MORE ACTIVE PERIOD FRIDAY HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...THE LINGERING STALLED FRONTAL SYSTEM WELL
OFFSHORE BEGINS TO BACK AS A WARM FRONT...WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE FORMING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LINE. ALOFT...THE
DOMINATING CLOSED LOW/ASSOCIATED DEEP TROUGH BEGINS TO EDGE OFF TO
THE NORTH AND EAST. THE REGION WILL REMAIN POSITIONED THOUGH UNDER A
BROAD TROUGH...WITH MULTIPLE DECENT SHORTWAVES RIDING THE
FLOW...EACH BRINGING ENOUGH FORCING TO TRIGGER SHOWERS AND/OR TSTMS.
HAVE ATTEMPTED TO TIME OUT THE PASSING AND INCLUDED POPS TO
CORRESPOND WHERE THERE IS BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE
TIMING...FRI NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN SAT AFTN/EVENING. MODELS DIVERGE
HOWEVER ON THE SOLUTION SUN-MON WITH THE 12Z GFS BEING THE MORE
PROGRESSION IN WEAKENING THE TROUGH INTO ALMOST A ZONAL FLOW WHILE
THE ECMWF LINGERS THE TROUGH INTO THE WORK WEEK. TAKING A BLEND OF
THE SOLUTIONS FOR NOW WITH THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY...HAVE MENTION OF
SLIGHT CHC POPS SUN AFTN-MON EVENING. THE TREND SUGGESTS ANY PCPN
SUN MIGHT BE ISOLATED IN NATURE...WITH MORE SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS
MONDAY WITH BOTH A PASSING SHORTWAVE AND THE FRONT STALLING JUST
EAST OF THE AREA. AS OF NOW...THE THREAT OF ANY STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS LOOKS TO BE VERY MINIMAL.

UNDER THE PERSISTING TROUGH...TEMPS WILL HOVER A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. RISING HEIGHTS BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND WILL AID IN PUSHING TEMPS TO RIGHT AROUND NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT.

VFR.

WINDS BACKING NW THIS EVENING AND DIMINISHING. GUSTS SUBSIDE
OVERNIGHT.

FOR TUESDAY...NW FLOW AROUND 10 KT BACKS W TO SW IN THE AFTN.


 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS COULD OCCASIONALLY BE MORE BACKED BY
ABOUT 20 DEGREES THAN FORECAST BEFORE 01-02Z. END TIME OF FREQUENT
GUSTS COULD BE OFF BY A COUPLE OF HOURS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS COULD OCCASIONALLY BE MORE BACKED BY
ABOUT 20 DEGREES THAN FORECAST BEFORE 01-02Z. END TIME OF FREQUENT
GUSTS COULD BE OFF BY A COUPLE OF HOURS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS COULD OCCASIONALLY BE MORE BACKED BY
ABOUT 20 DEGREES THAN FORECAST BEFORE 01-02Z. END TIME OF FREQUENT
GUSTS COULD BE OFF BY A COUPLE OF HOURS.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS COULD OCCASIONALLY BE MORE BACKED BY
ABOUT 20 DEGREES THAN FORECAST BEFORE 01-02Z. END TIME OF FREQUENT
GUSTS COULD BE OFF BY A COUPLE OF HOURS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS COULD OCCASIONALLY BE MORE BACKED BY
ABOUT 20 DEGREES THAN FORECAST BEFORE 01-02Z. END TIME OF FREQUENT
GUSTS COULD BE OFF BY A COUPLE OF HOURS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS COULD OCCASIONALLY BE MORE BACKED BY
ABOUT 20 DEGREES THAN FORECAST BEFORE 02-03Z. END TIME OF FREQUENT
GUSTS COULD BE OFF BY A COUPLE OF HOURS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...VFR.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM KBDR TO KFRG.
OTHERWISE...VFR.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH BELOW 25 KT THROUGH AROUND
MIDNIGHT. SOUTHERLY SWELLS MAY STILL REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN COASTAL OCEAN WATERS. NOTE
THAT WAVE-WATCH GUIDANCE APPEARS TOO HIGH BASED ON INITIAL
CONDITIONS.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUE.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS THEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...WITH A POSSIBLE RETURN TO 25 KT GUSTS AND 5 FT SEAS OVER THE
WEEKEND DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS/TONGUE
NEAR TERM...TONGUE
SHORT TERM...TONGUE
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...JC/MPS
MARINE...SEARS/TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...







000
FXUS61 KOKX 282341
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
741 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND REMAINS
ENTRENCHED THROUGH THE WEEK. WEAK LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP LATE
THIS WEEKEND ALONG THE COAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SHOWER THREAT COMING TO AN END AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY SWINGS INTO NEW
ENGLAND...COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST...AND DAYTIME INSTABILITY WANES.

GUSTY WSW FLOW WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING AS WELL.

THERE REMAINS IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP
CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FACING BEACHES THROUGH THROUGH
THIS EVENING.

SLOW CLEARING OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S IN NYC.
WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SUN GIVES WAY TO AFTERNOON CUMULUS THAT "PANCAKE" UNDER THE
SUBSIDENCE TO BKN AT TIMES.

CLEAR TUESDAY NIGHT.

MAX/MINS ARE A BLEND OF MOS WHICH HAD LITTLE SPREAD.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS
ALONG THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FACING BEACHES THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US WILL BE THE
DOMINATING FEATURE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK BEFORE WEAKENING
THIS COMING WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
WED-FRI WITH A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE STALLED FRONT WELL SHORE BACKS
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST.

GENERALLY EXPECTING DRY AND QUIET WED THROUGH WED NIGHT. 12Z NAM AND
GFS BOTH HINTING AT ISO SHOWER/TSTM DEVELOPMENT WELL NORTH/WEST OF
NYC METRO...CORRESPONDING WITH THE REGION UNDER A PASSING SHORTWAVE.
HAVE BEEN GOING BACK AND FORTH THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS ON WHETHER
ANYTHING WILL FORM SO WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED A LOW END SLIGHT CHC
FOR PCPN FOR THE AFTN WITH JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE LOWER ATMO
BEING INJECTED IN WITH THE SWLY FLOW. OVERALL THOUGH...MAJORITY OF
THE AREA WILL ENJOY DRY WX. SIMILAR STORY ON THURS WITH ANOTHER
PASSING SHORTWAVE AND A BIT MORE MOISTURE IN THE ATMO...CLOSER TO
NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AGAIN JUST HAVE MENTION FOR
SLIGHT CHC TSTM WELL NORTH/WEST OF NYC METRO.

POTENTIAL FOR A BIT MORE ACTIVE PERIOD FRIDAY HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...THE LINGERING STALLED FRONTAL SYSTEM WELL
OFFSHORE BEGINS TO BACK AS A WARM FRONT...WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE FORMING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LINE. ALOFT...THE
DOMINATING CLOSED LOW/ASSOCIATED DEEP TROUGH BEGINS TO EDGE OFF TO
THE NORTH AND EAST. THE REGION WILL REMAIN POSITIONED THOUGH UNDER A
BROAD TROUGH...WITH MULTIPLE DECENT SHORTWAVES RIDING THE
FLOW...EACH BRINGING ENOUGH FORCING TO TRIGGER SHOWERS AND/OR TSTMS.
HAVE ATTEMPTED TO TIME OUT THE PASSING AND INCLUDED POPS TO
CORRESPOND WHERE THERE IS BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE
TIMING...FRI NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN SAT AFTN/EVENING. MODELS DIVERGE
HOWEVER ON THE SOLUTION SUN-MON WITH THE 12Z GFS BEING THE MORE
PROGRESSION IN WEAKENING THE TROUGH INTO ALMOST A ZONAL FLOW WHILE
THE ECMWF LINGERS THE TROUGH INTO THE WORK WEEK. TAKING A BLEND OF
THE SOLUTIONS FOR NOW WITH THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY...HAVE MENTION OF
SLIGHT CHC POPS SUN AFTN-MON EVENING. THE TREND SUGGESTS ANY PCPN
SUN MIGHT BE ISOLATED IN NATURE...WITH MORE SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS
MONDAY WITH BOTH A PASSING SHORTWAVE AND THE FRONT STALLING JUST
EAST OF THE AREA. AS OF NOW...THE THREAT OF ANY STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS LOOKS TO BE VERY MINIMAL.

UNDER THE PERSISTING TROUGH...TEMPS WILL HOVER A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. RISING HEIGHTS BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND WILL AID IN PUSHING TEMPS TO RIGHT AROUND NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT.

VFR.

WINDS BACKING NW THIS EVENING AND DIMINISHING. GUSTS SUBSIDE
OVERNIGHT.

FOR TUESDAY...NW FLOW AROUND 10 KT BACKS W TO SW IN THE AFTN.


 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS COULD OCCASIONALLY BE MORE BACKED BY
ABOUT 20 DEGREES THAN FORECAST BEFORE 01-02Z. END TIME OF FREQUENT
GUSTS COULD BE OFF BY A COUPLE OF HOURS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS COULD OCCASIONALLY BE MORE BACKED BY
ABOUT 20 DEGREES THAN FORECAST BEFORE 01-02Z. END TIME OF FREQUENT
GUSTS COULD BE OFF BY A COUPLE OF HOURS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS COULD OCCASIONALLY BE MORE BACKED BY
ABOUT 20 DEGREES THAN FORECAST BEFORE 01-02Z. END TIME OF FREQUENT
GUSTS COULD BE OFF BY A COUPLE OF HOURS.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS COULD OCCASIONALLY BE MORE BACKED BY
ABOUT 20 DEGREES THAN FORECAST BEFORE 01-02Z. END TIME OF FREQUENT
GUSTS COULD BE OFF BY A COUPLE OF HOURS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS COULD OCCASIONALLY BE MORE BACKED BY
ABOUT 20 DEGREES THAN FORECAST BEFORE 01-02Z. END TIME OF FREQUENT
GUSTS COULD BE OFF BY A COUPLE OF HOURS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS COULD OCCASIONALLY BE MORE BACKED BY
ABOUT 20 DEGREES THAN FORECAST BEFORE 02-03Z. END TIME OF FREQUENT
GUSTS COULD BE OFF BY A COUPLE OF HOURS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...VFR.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM KBDR TO KFRG.
OTHERWISE...VFR.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH BELOW 25 KT THROUGH AROUND
MIDNIGHT. SOUTHERLY SWELLS MAY STILL REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN COASTAL OCEAN WATERS. NOTE
THAT WAVE-WATCH GUIDANCE APPEARS TOO HIGH BASED ON INITIAL
CONDITIONS.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUE.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS THEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...WITH A POSSIBLE RETURN TO 25 KT GUSTS AND 5 FT SEAS OVER THE
WEEKEND DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS/TONGUE
NEAR TERM...TONGUE
SHORT TERM...TONGUE
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...JC/MPS
MARINE...SEARS/TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...







000
FXUS61 KBOX 282334
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
734 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RATHER STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BY JULY STANDARDS WILL MOVE
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING WITH ITS ATTENDING COLD
FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT AND THEN OFFSHORE
TUE. MAINLY DRY AND LESS HUMID WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THIS WORK WEEK. THIS WEEKEND AN OFFSHORE FRONT MAY BUILD BACK
INTO NEW ENGLAND ALONG WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS WILL
RESULT IN THE RISK OF SHOWERS AND MORE HUMID WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWING 500-1000 J/KG MEAN LAYER CAPE ACROSS
MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WITH THE INSTABILITY DROPPING OFF
RATHER QUICKLY THIS EVENING. EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES OF 30-45 KT
WERE STILL OBSERVED ACROSS EASTERN MA. WITH THE DECREASING
INSTABILITY THOUGH...THE POTENTIAL OF THIS SHEAR IS NOT LIKELY TO
BE MAXIMIZED. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL BE ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE AT 8 PM.

MAIN ADJUSTMENTS THIS EVENING WERE TO ADJUST NEAR TERM CONDITIONS
TO REFLECT THE LATEST OBSERVED TRENDS.

ONCE STORMS DIMINISH THIS EVENING...EXPECTING A COLD FRONT TO
FINALLY PUSH OFFSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS SHOULD MEAN LESS HUMID
AIR ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT...ALONG WITH DRIER AIR AND CLEARER SKIES.
DEPENDING UPON THE TIMING OF THE CLEARING...AND THE AMOUNT OF
LEFTOVER LOW-LEVEL HUMIDITY...THERE COULD BE SOME AREAS OF FOG IN
THE USUAL VALLEYS FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY...RESULTING
IN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. NOT MUCH OF AIRMASS CHANGE SO HIGHS ONCE
AGAIN SHOULD TOP OFF IN 70S TO AROUND 80 BUT WITH SIGNIFICANTLY
LOWER HUMIDITY. WEAK GRADIENT SUPPORTS AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES
ALONG BOTH COASTS. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAINLY DRY/QUIET AND SEASONABLE WEATHER WED THRU FRI
* POSSIBLY UNSETTLED AND MORE HUMID THIS WEEKEND

WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY...

LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST EARLY THIS PERIOD
HOWEVER THE MEAN MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS FAR ENOUGH EAST TO KEEP
THE DEEP PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE OFFSHORE. THUS MAINLY DRY
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL WED THRU FRI. HOWEVER GIVEN COOL TEMPS ALOFT
COMBINED WITH CYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW CAN/T RULE OUT A LOW RISK OF A
FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS/T-STORMS INLAND.

AS FOR TEMPS...GIVEN THE BELOW NORMAL 500 HEIGHTS EXPECT LATE
JULY/EARLY AUG SUN ANGLE TO PROVIDE MILD DAYS BUT DEW PTS IN THE 50S
WILL YIELD COMFORTABLY COOL NIGHTS.

THIS WEEKEND...

NORTHEAST TROUGH RETROGRADES TO THE MS VLY THIS WEEKEND. THIS OPENS
THE DOOR FOR TROPICAL MOISTURE AND THE OFFSHORE FRONT TO BACK INTO
NEW ENGLAND...ESPECIALLY EASTERN MA AND RI. THIS WILL INCREASE THE
RISK FOR SHOWERS AND T-STORMS ALONG WITH MORE HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING.

MAINLY VFR ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT. EXPECTING BRIEF
MVFR IN SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA THROUGH 29/02Z. PATCHY MVFR/IFR
POSSIBLE IN VALLEY FOG. VFR TUE WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES.
MAINLY VFR TUE NIGHT.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE THRU FRI
THEN LOWER CONFIDENCE INTO THIS WEEKEND.

VFR EXPECT A LOW RISK FOR PATCHY IFR IN EARLY MORNING FOG EACH DAY.
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSTMS MAINLY WEST OF
MHT AND ORH. BY SAT CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR COMING ONSHORE INTO EASTERN
MA AND RI ALONG WITH THREAT OF SHOWERS. MARGINAL VFR-MVFR LIKELY
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE NIGHT. MAIN CONCERN IS FOR ROUGH
SEAS ON SOUTH COASTAL WATERS...WHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES
INTO TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES WATERS TONIGHT...BUT
EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY DENSE FOG...AT LEAST EARLY
TONIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES LATE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE WATERS TUESDAY...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES.
SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDE OFFSHORE.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS WED THRU FRI THEN SE WINDS POSSIBLY
INCREASING SAT PENDING STRENGTH AND TRACK OF FRONTAL WAVE MOVING NE
FROM THE MID ATLC. FAIR VSBY WED THRU FRI THEN POSSIBLY LOWERING SAT
IN SHOWERS AND FOG.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR RIZ008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237-250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/NOCERA
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...BELK/NOCERA
MARINE...BELK/NOCERA




000
FXUS61 KBOX 282334
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
734 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RATHER STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BY JULY STANDARDS WILL MOVE
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING WITH ITS ATTENDING COLD
FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT AND THEN OFFSHORE
TUE. MAINLY DRY AND LESS HUMID WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THIS WORK WEEK. THIS WEEKEND AN OFFSHORE FRONT MAY BUILD BACK
INTO NEW ENGLAND ALONG WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS WILL
RESULT IN THE RISK OF SHOWERS AND MORE HUMID WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWING 500-1000 J/KG MEAN LAYER CAPE ACROSS
MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WITH THE INSTABILITY DROPPING OFF
RATHER QUICKLY THIS EVENING. EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES OF 30-45 KT
WERE STILL OBSERVED ACROSS EASTERN MA. WITH THE DECREASING
INSTABILITY THOUGH...THE POTENTIAL OF THIS SHEAR IS NOT LIKELY TO
BE MAXIMIZED. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL BE ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE AT 8 PM.

MAIN ADJUSTMENTS THIS EVENING WERE TO ADJUST NEAR TERM CONDITIONS
TO REFLECT THE LATEST OBSERVED TRENDS.

ONCE STORMS DIMINISH THIS EVENING...EXPECTING A COLD FRONT TO
FINALLY PUSH OFFSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS SHOULD MEAN LESS HUMID
AIR ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT...ALONG WITH DRIER AIR AND CLEARER SKIES.
DEPENDING UPON THE TIMING OF THE CLEARING...AND THE AMOUNT OF
LEFTOVER LOW-LEVEL HUMIDITY...THERE COULD BE SOME AREAS OF FOG IN
THE USUAL VALLEYS FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY...RESULTING
IN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. NOT MUCH OF AIRMASS CHANGE SO HIGHS ONCE
AGAIN SHOULD TOP OFF IN 70S TO AROUND 80 BUT WITH SIGNIFICANTLY
LOWER HUMIDITY. WEAK GRADIENT SUPPORTS AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES
ALONG BOTH COASTS. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAINLY DRY/QUIET AND SEASONABLE WEATHER WED THRU FRI
* POSSIBLY UNSETTLED AND MORE HUMID THIS WEEKEND

WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY...

LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST EARLY THIS PERIOD
HOWEVER THE MEAN MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS FAR ENOUGH EAST TO KEEP
THE DEEP PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE OFFSHORE. THUS MAINLY DRY
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL WED THRU FRI. HOWEVER GIVEN COOL TEMPS ALOFT
COMBINED WITH CYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW CAN/T RULE OUT A LOW RISK OF A
FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS/T-STORMS INLAND.

AS FOR TEMPS...GIVEN THE BELOW NORMAL 500 HEIGHTS EXPECT LATE
JULY/EARLY AUG SUN ANGLE TO PROVIDE MILD DAYS BUT DEW PTS IN THE 50S
WILL YIELD COMFORTABLY COOL NIGHTS.

THIS WEEKEND...

NORTHEAST TROUGH RETROGRADES TO THE MS VLY THIS WEEKEND. THIS OPENS
THE DOOR FOR TROPICAL MOISTURE AND THE OFFSHORE FRONT TO BACK INTO
NEW ENGLAND...ESPECIALLY EASTERN MA AND RI. THIS WILL INCREASE THE
RISK FOR SHOWERS AND T-STORMS ALONG WITH MORE HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING.

MAINLY VFR ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT. EXPECTING BRIEF
MVFR IN SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA THROUGH 29/02Z. PATCHY MVFR/IFR
POSSIBLE IN VALLEY FOG. VFR TUE WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES.
MAINLY VFR TUE NIGHT.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE THRU FRI
THEN LOWER CONFIDENCE INTO THIS WEEKEND.

VFR EXPECT A LOW RISK FOR PATCHY IFR IN EARLY MORNING FOG EACH DAY.
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSTMS MAINLY WEST OF
MHT AND ORH. BY SAT CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR COMING ONSHORE INTO EASTERN
MA AND RI ALONG WITH THREAT OF SHOWERS. MARGINAL VFR-MVFR LIKELY
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE NIGHT. MAIN CONCERN IS FOR ROUGH
SEAS ON SOUTH COASTAL WATERS...WHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES
INTO TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES WATERS TONIGHT...BUT
EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY DENSE FOG...AT LEAST EARLY
TONIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES LATE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE WATERS TUESDAY...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES.
SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDE OFFSHORE.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS WED THRU FRI THEN SE WINDS POSSIBLY
INCREASING SAT PENDING STRENGTH AND TRACK OF FRONTAL WAVE MOVING NE
FROM THE MID ATLC. FAIR VSBY WED THRU FRI THEN POSSIBLY LOWERING SAT
IN SHOWERS AND FOG.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR RIZ008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237-250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/NOCERA
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...BELK/NOCERA
MARINE...BELK/NOCERA



000
FXUS61 KALY 282140
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
540 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO
NEAR NORTHERN MAINE BY TUESDAY MORNING. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER ON TUESDAY. ON
WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED...BUT AN
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY CAUSE A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH CANCELLED. RAIN WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED
THUNDER STILL IN PARTS OF EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...
SPINNING EAST ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM. CURRENT FORECAST
STILL REFLECTS CURRENT TRENDS SO VERY LITTLE TO ADJUST THROUGH
THIS EVENING EXCEPT TO TAKE OUT THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND HEAVY
RAIN WORDING.

SOME PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED BY DAYBREAK...BUT UPSTREAM
CONDITIONS AND THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LEFT OVER OUR REGION IN THE
WAKE OF ALL THE RAIN SUGGESTS SOME AREAS MAY BE MOSTLY CLOUDY TO
CLOUDY THROUGH DAYBREAK. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHOULD BE STEADY ALL
NIGHT...SUGGESTING SOME LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS
PERSISTING IN SOME AREAS THROUGH THE NIGHT. SO...NOT IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TONIGHT...BUT COLD ADVECTION SHOULD
HELP TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S...SOME UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANY MORNING CLOUDINESS SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE MORNING AND
SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S
TOMORROW...WITH AROUND 70 TO MID 70S HIGHER TERRAIN. BETTER
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TOMORROW NIGHT WITH A LOW LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS OVER THE REGION AND LIGHT WINDS. LOWS IN THE 50S...WITH
40S IN COLDER SPOTS.

BROAD UPPER ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCING MEAN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. NOT MUCH MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM DOMINATED BY NORTHERN STREAM FLOW...SO
INTERVALS OF CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SLOWLY SPREADING EAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH
LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THIS WILL BE A PERIOD OF VERY LITTLE ATMOSPHERIC MOTION ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN U.S.  DURING THIS TIME...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL
BE SITUATED ALONG THE EAST COAST.  THE CLOSENESS OF THIS FRONT TO
OUR REGION COUPLED WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE INLAND WILL RESULT IN A
STAGNANT AIR MASS OF GRADUALLY INCREASING HUMIDITY THAT WILL MEAN A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE PERIOD.
A COLD FRONT FROM CANADA WILL HAVE REACHED ONLY THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES AND SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY MONDAY...AND THUS SHALL PROVIDE NO
RELIEF TO OUR REGION.

THERE WILL ALSO BE LITTLE NOTABLE VARIATION IN THE TEMPERATURE
PATTERN...WITH HIGHS EACH DAY FROM THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S.  LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE HIGH PEAKS OF
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO AROUND 60 DEGREES IN THE LOWER MID
HUDSON VALLEY.  LOWS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHTS WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOWER 50S IN THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS...TO
THE LOWER 60S DOWN THE HUDSON AND LOWER CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS...THOUGH
READINGS MAY HOLD UP IN THE MID 60S DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY SUNDAY
NIGHT.  NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS IN ALBANY THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST ARE
IN THE LOWER 80S AND LOWER 60S...RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CHANGEABLE FLYING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS OVER
THE NEXT 6-10 HOURS THANKS TO A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA.

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK...THE
CATSKILLS...AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. THESE STORMS ARE MOVING
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST AT 20-30 MPH. WE HAVE INCLUDED THUNDER AT
ALL THE TERMINALS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
MVFR WITH ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSHOWERS THAT HIT A TERMINAL SITE.

A COLD FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BETWEEN 00Z AND 02Z THIS
EVENING. BEHIND THIS FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL TRANSPORT COOLER
AND LESS HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL END THE THREAT FOR
PRECIP...WITH SURFACE WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS FOR THIS EVENING. SOME LINGERING CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT...BUT FLYING CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE VFR FOR ALL SITES. BY LATE TONIGHT...CLOUDS SHOULD
SCATTER OUT AND WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH SO LOCALIZED FOG IS
A THREAT AT THE TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO
NEAR NORTHERN MAINE BY TUESDAY MORNING. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER ON TUESDAY. ON
WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED...BUT AN
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY CAUSE A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.

RH VALUES WILL BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT. RH
VALUES WILL BE 40 TO 55 PERCENT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR LESS
THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN SOUTH AT 15 MPH OR LESS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH SOME
STORMS AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS VERY MOIST WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S.
HAVE CONTINUED WITH ENHANCED WORDING IN FORECAST FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL.

THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTAL ARE EXPECTED MAINLY NORTH OF I-90 WITH
UP TO AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IN THUNDERSTORMS MAY RESULT IN SOME FLOODING OF LOW
LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. AREAS WHICH HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED A
ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MOST VULNERABLE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS







000
FXUS61 KOKX 282045
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
445 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND REMAINS
ENTRENCHED THROUGH THE WEEK. WEAK LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP LATE
THIS WEEKEND ALONG THE COAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH INSTABILITY FROM
THE UPPER LOW REMAINS NORTH OF NEW YORK CITY/LONG ISLAND THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON. THE LINE OF MAINLY SHOWERS FROM ALBANY NY
SOUTHWEST TO NEAR STATE COLLEGE PA AS OF 3 PM WILL NEED
WATCHING...BUT DUE TO LIMITED CAPE, IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STEADY
STATE AS IT APPROACHES NORTHERN NJ TOWARDS 6 PM. AHEAD OF THIS
LINE...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. SEVERE THREAT IS LIMITED.

AFTER 6 PM THE LINE SHOULD BEGIN TO QUICKLY DIMINISH AS IT
APPROACHES NYC AND LONG ISLAND TOWARDS 7-8 PM.

THERE REMAINS IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP
CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FACING BEACHES THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

SLOW CLEARING OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S IN NYC.
WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SUN GIVES WAY TO AFTERNOON CUMULUS THAT "PANCAKE" UNDER THE
SUBSIDENCE TO BKN AT TIMES.

CLEAR TUESDAY NIGHT.

MAX/MINS ARE A BLEND OF MOS WHICH HAD LITTLE SPREAD.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS
ALONG THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FACING BEACHES THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US WILL BE THE
DOMINATING FEATURE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK BEFORE WEAKENING
THIS COMING WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
WED-FRI WITH A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE STALLED FRONT WELL SHORE BACKS
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST.

GENERALLY EXPECTING DRY AND QUIET WED THROUGH WED NIGHT. 12Z NAM AND
GFS BOTH HINTING AT ISO SHOWER/TSTM DEVELOPMENT WELL NORTH/WEST OF
NYC METRO...CORRESPONDING WITH THE REGION UNDER A PASSING SHORTWAVE.
HAVE BEEN GOING BACK AND FORTH THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS ON WHETHER
ANYTHING WILL FORM SO WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED A LOW END SLIGHT CHC
FOR PCPN FOR THE AFTN WITH JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE LOWER ATMO
BEING INJECTED IN WITH THE SWLY FLOW. OVERALL THOUGH...MAJORITY OF
THE AREA WILL ENJOY DRY WX. SIMILAR STORY ON THURS WITH ANOTHER
PASSING SHORTWAVE AND A BIT MORE MOISTURE IN THE ATMO...CLOSER TO
NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AGAIN JUST HAVE MENTION FOR
SLIGHT CHC TSTM WELL NORTH/WEST OF NYC METRO.

POTENTIAL FOR A BIT MORE ACTIVE PERIOD FRIDAY HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...THE LINGERING STALLED FRONTAL SYSTEM WELL
OFFSHORE BEGINS TO BACK AS A WARM FRONT...WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE FORMING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LINE. ALOFT...THE
DOMINATING CLOSED LOW/ASSOCIATED DEEP TROUGH BEGINS TO EDGE OFF TO
THE NORTH AND EAST. THE REGION WILL REMAIN POSITIONED THOUGH UNDER A
BROAD TROUGH...WITH MULTIPLE DECENT SHORTWAVES RIDING THE
FLOW...EACH BRINGING ENOUGH FORCING TO TRIGGER SHOWERS AND/OR TSTMS.
HAVE ATTEMPTED TO TIME OUT THE PASSING AND INCLUDED POPS TO
CORRESPOND WHERE THERE IS BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE
TIMING...FRI NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN SAT AFTN/EVENING. MODELS DIVERGE
HOWEVER ON THE SOLUTION SUN-MON WITH THE 12Z GFS BEING THE MORE
PROGRESSION IN WEAKENING THE TROUGH INTO ALMOST A ZONAL FLOW WHILE
THE ECMWF LINGERS THE TROUGH INTO THE WORK WEEK. TAKING A BLEND OF
THE SOLUTIONS FOR NOW WITH THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY...HAVE MENTION OF
SLIGHT CHC POPS SUN AFTN-MON EVENING. THE TREND SUGGESTS ANY PCPN
SUN MIGHT BE ISOLATED IN NATURE...WITH MORE SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS
MONDAY WITH BOTH A PASSING SHORTWAVE AND THE FRONT STALLING JUST
EAST OF THE AREA. AS OF NOW...THE THREAT OF ANY STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS LOOKS TO BE VERY MINIMAL.

UNDER THE PERSISTING TROUGH...TEMPS WILL HOVER A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. RISING HEIGHTS BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND WILL AID IN PUSHING TEMPS TO RIGHT AROUND NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC COLD FRONT AND DEEP UPPER TROUGH MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE
THIS AFTN/EVENING.

WIDELY SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL IMPACT AREAS MAINLY N AND W OF NYC
TERMINALS INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WITH KSWF HAVING THE BEST
OVERALL CHANCE.

SW WINDS 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS AS HIGH 25-28 KT. WINDS DIMINISH TO
10-15 KT WITH 15-23 KT GUSTS THIS EVENING BEFORE TURNING W-NW AND
DIMINISHING FURTHER TO 8-12 KT.

GENERAL WEST FLOW AT 10 KT OR LESS ON TAP FOR TUESDAY.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING MAY NOT BE AS
STRONG AS FORECASTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING MAY NOT BE AS
STRONG AS FORECASTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING MAY NOT BE AS
STRONG AS FORECASTED.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING MAY NOT BE AS
STRONG AS FORECASTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING MAY NOT BE AS
STRONG AS FORECASTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY AFTERNOON-WEDNESDAY...VFR.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM KBDR TO KFRG.
OTHERWISE...VFR.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
THE REST OF THE AFTN IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. GUSTS, QUITE
STRONG FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, TO NEAR 30 KTS THOUGH THE EVENING.

WIND DIMINISH LATE OVERNIGHT WITH SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUE.
NOTE THAT WAVE-WATCH GUIDANCE APPEARS TOO HIGH BASED ON INITIAL
CONDITIONS.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS THEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...WITH A POSSIBLE RETURN TO 25 KT GUSTS AND 5 FT SEAS OVER THE
WEEKEND DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS/TONGUE
NEAR TERM...TONGUE
SHORT TERM...TONGUE
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...JC/MPS
MARINE...SEARS/TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...







000
FXUS61 KOKX 282045
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
445 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND REMAINS
ENTRENCHED THROUGH THE WEEK. WEAK LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP LATE
THIS WEEKEND ALONG THE COAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH INSTABILITY FROM
THE UPPER LOW REMAINS NORTH OF NEW YORK CITY/LONG ISLAND THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON. THE LINE OF MAINLY SHOWERS FROM ALBANY NY
SOUTHWEST TO NEAR STATE COLLEGE PA AS OF 3 PM WILL NEED
WATCHING...BUT DUE TO LIMITED CAPE, IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STEADY
STATE AS IT APPROACHES NORTHERN NJ TOWARDS 6 PM. AHEAD OF THIS
LINE...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. SEVERE THREAT IS LIMITED.

AFTER 6 PM THE LINE SHOULD BEGIN TO QUICKLY DIMINISH AS IT
APPROACHES NYC AND LONG ISLAND TOWARDS 7-8 PM.

THERE REMAINS IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP
CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FACING BEACHES THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

SLOW CLEARING OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S IN NYC.
WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SUN GIVES WAY TO AFTERNOON CUMULUS THAT "PANCAKE" UNDER THE
SUBSIDENCE TO BKN AT TIMES.

CLEAR TUESDAY NIGHT.

MAX/MINS ARE A BLEND OF MOS WHICH HAD LITTLE SPREAD.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS
ALONG THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FACING BEACHES THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US WILL BE THE
DOMINATING FEATURE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK BEFORE WEAKENING
THIS COMING WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
WED-FRI WITH A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE STALLED FRONT WELL SHORE BACKS
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST.

GENERALLY EXPECTING DRY AND QUIET WED THROUGH WED NIGHT. 12Z NAM AND
GFS BOTH HINTING AT ISO SHOWER/TSTM DEVELOPMENT WELL NORTH/WEST OF
NYC METRO...CORRESPONDING WITH THE REGION UNDER A PASSING SHORTWAVE.
HAVE BEEN GOING BACK AND FORTH THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS ON WHETHER
ANYTHING WILL FORM SO WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED A LOW END SLIGHT CHC
FOR PCPN FOR THE AFTN WITH JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE LOWER ATMO
BEING INJECTED IN WITH THE SWLY FLOW. OVERALL THOUGH...MAJORITY OF
THE AREA WILL ENJOY DRY WX. SIMILAR STORY ON THURS WITH ANOTHER
PASSING SHORTWAVE AND A BIT MORE MOISTURE IN THE ATMO...CLOSER TO
NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AGAIN JUST HAVE MENTION FOR
SLIGHT CHC TSTM WELL NORTH/WEST OF NYC METRO.

POTENTIAL FOR A BIT MORE ACTIVE PERIOD FRIDAY HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...THE LINGERING STALLED FRONTAL SYSTEM WELL
OFFSHORE BEGINS TO BACK AS A WARM FRONT...WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE FORMING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LINE. ALOFT...THE
DOMINATING CLOSED LOW/ASSOCIATED DEEP TROUGH BEGINS TO EDGE OFF TO
THE NORTH AND EAST. THE REGION WILL REMAIN POSITIONED THOUGH UNDER A
BROAD TROUGH...WITH MULTIPLE DECENT SHORTWAVES RIDING THE
FLOW...EACH BRINGING ENOUGH FORCING TO TRIGGER SHOWERS AND/OR TSTMS.
HAVE ATTEMPTED TO TIME OUT THE PASSING AND INCLUDED POPS TO
CORRESPOND WHERE THERE IS BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE
TIMING...FRI NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN SAT AFTN/EVENING. MODELS DIVERGE
HOWEVER ON THE SOLUTION SUN-MON WITH THE 12Z GFS BEING THE MORE
PROGRESSION IN WEAKENING THE TROUGH INTO ALMOST A ZONAL FLOW WHILE
THE ECMWF LINGERS THE TROUGH INTO THE WORK WEEK. TAKING A BLEND OF
THE SOLUTIONS FOR NOW WITH THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY...HAVE MENTION OF
SLIGHT CHC POPS SUN AFTN-MON EVENING. THE TREND SUGGESTS ANY PCPN
SUN MIGHT BE ISOLATED IN NATURE...WITH MORE SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS
MONDAY WITH BOTH A PASSING SHORTWAVE AND THE FRONT STALLING JUST
EAST OF THE AREA. AS OF NOW...THE THREAT OF ANY STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS LOOKS TO BE VERY MINIMAL.

UNDER THE PERSISTING TROUGH...TEMPS WILL HOVER A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. RISING HEIGHTS BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND WILL AID IN PUSHING TEMPS TO RIGHT AROUND NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC COLD FRONT AND DEEP UPPER TROUGH MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE
THIS AFTN/EVENING.

WIDELY SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL IMPACT AREAS MAINLY N AND W OF NYC
TERMINALS INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WITH KSWF HAVING THE BEST
OVERALL CHANCE.

SW WINDS 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS AS HIGH 25-28 KT. WINDS DIMINISH TO
10-15 KT WITH 15-23 KT GUSTS THIS EVENING BEFORE TURNING W-NW AND
DIMINISHING FURTHER TO 8-12 KT.

GENERAL WEST FLOW AT 10 KT OR LESS ON TAP FOR TUESDAY.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING MAY NOT BE AS
STRONG AS FORECASTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING MAY NOT BE AS
STRONG AS FORECASTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING MAY NOT BE AS
STRONG AS FORECASTED.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING MAY NOT BE AS
STRONG AS FORECASTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING MAY NOT BE AS
STRONG AS FORECASTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY AFTERNOON-WEDNESDAY...VFR.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM KBDR TO KFRG.
OTHERWISE...VFR.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
THE REST OF THE AFTN IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. GUSTS, QUITE
STRONG FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, TO NEAR 30 KTS THOUGH THE EVENING.

WIND DIMINISH LATE OVERNIGHT WITH SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUE.
NOTE THAT WAVE-WATCH GUIDANCE APPEARS TOO HIGH BASED ON INITIAL
CONDITIONS.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS THEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...WITH A POSSIBLE RETURN TO 25 KT GUSTS AND 5 FT SEAS OVER THE
WEEKEND DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS/TONGUE
NEAR TERM...TONGUE
SHORT TERM...TONGUE
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...JC/MPS
MARINE...SEARS/TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...






000
FXUS61 KOKX 282010
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
410 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND REMAINS
ENTRENCHED THROUGH THE WEEK. WEAK LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP LATE
THIS WEEKEND ALONG THE COAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH INSTABILITY FROM
THE UPPER LOW REMAINS NORTH OF NEW YORK CITY/LONG ISLAND THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON. THE LINE OF MAINLY SHOWERS FROM ALBANY NY
SOUTHWEST TO NEAR STATE COLLEGE PA AS OF 3 PM WILL NEED
WATCHING...BUT DUE TO LIMITED CAPE, IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STEADY
STATE AS IT APPROACHES NORTHERN NJ TOWARDS 6 PM. AHEAD OF THIS
LINE...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. SEVERE THREAT IS LIMITED.

AFTER 6 PM THE LINE SHOULD BEGIN TO QUICKLY DIMINISH AS IT
APPROACHES NYC AND LONG ISLAND TOWARDS 7-8 PM.

THERE REMAINS IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP
CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FACING BEACHES THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

SLOW CLEARING OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S IN NYC.
WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SUN GIVES WAY TO AFTERNOON CUMULUS THAT "PANCAKE" UNDER THE
SUBSIDENCE TO BKN AT TIMES.

CLEAR TUESDAY NIGHT.

MAX/MINS ARE A BLEND OF MOS WHICH HAD LITTLE SPREAD.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS
ALONG THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FACING BEACHES THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US WILL BE THE
DOMINATING FEATURE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK BEFORE WEAKENING
THIS COMING WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
WED-FRI WITH A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE STALLED FRONT WELL SHORE BACKS
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST.

GENERALLY EXPECTING DRY AND QUIET WED THROUGH WED NIGHT. 12Z NAM AND
GFS BOTH HINTING AT ISO SHOWER/TSTM DEVELOPMENT WELL NORTH/WEST OF
NYC METRO...CORRESPONDING WITH THE REGION UNDER A PASSING SHORTWAVE.
HAVE BEEN GOING BACK AND FORTH THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS ON WHETHER
ANYTHING WILL FORM SO WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED A LOW END SLIGHT CHC
FOR PCPN FOR THE AFTN WITH JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE LOWER ATMO
BEING INJECTED IN WITH THE SWLY FLOW. OVERALL THOUGH...MAJORITY OF
THE AREA WILL ENJOY DRY WX. SIMILAR STORY ON THURS WITH ANOTHER
PASSING SHORTWAVE AND A BIT MORE MOISTURE IN THE ATMO...CLOSER TO
NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AGAIN JUST HAVE MENTION FOR
SLIGHT CHC TSTM WELL NORTH/WEST OF NYC METRO.

POTENTIAL FOR A BIT MORE ACTIVE PERIOD FRIDAY HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...THE LINGERING STALLED FRONTAL SYSTEM WELL
OFFSHORE BEGINS TO BACK AS A WARM FRONT...WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE FORMING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LINE. ALOFT...THE
DOMINATING CLOSED LOW/ASSOCIATED DEEP TROUGH BEGINS TO EDGE OFF TO
THE NORTH AND EAST. THE REGION WILL REMAIN POSITIONED THOUGH UNDER A
BROAD TROUGH...WITH MULTIPLE DECENT SHORTWAVES RIDING THE
FLOW...EACH BRINGING ENOUGH FORCING TO TRIGGER SHOWERS AND/OR TSTMS.
HAVE ATTEMPTED TO TIME OUT THE PASSING AND INCLUDED POPS TO
CORRESPOND WHERE THERE IS BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE
TIMING...FRI NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN SAT AFTN/EVENING. MODELS DIVERGE
HOWEVER ON THE SOLUTION SUN-MON WITH THE 12Z GFS BEING THE MORE
PROGRESSION IN WEAKENING THE TROUGH INTO ALMOST A ZONAL FLOW WHILE
THE ECMWF LINGERS THE TROUGH INTO THE WORK WEEK. TAKING A BLEND OF
THE SOLUTIONS FOR NOW WITH THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY...HAVE MENTION OF
SLIGHT CHC POPS SUN AFTN-MON EVENING. THE TREND SUGGESTS ANY PCPN
SUN MIGHT BE ISOLATED IN NATURE...WITH MORE SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS
MONDAY WITH BOTH A PASSING SHORTWAVE AND THE FRONT STALLING JUST
EAST OF THE AREA. AS OF NOW...THE THREAT OF ANY STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS LOOKS TO BE VERY MINIMAL.

UNDER THE PERSISTING TROUGH...TEMPS WILL HOVER A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. RISING HEIGHTS BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND WILL AID IN PUSHING TEMPS TO RIGHT AROUND NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC COLD FRONT AND DEEP UPPER TROUGH MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS...POSSIBLY A TSTM...WILL DEVELOP
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN ANY OF THE SHOWERS
IMPACTING ANY GIVEN TERMINAL...SO WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE LATEST
TAFS. WILL INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP FOR SOME SHOWERS AT KSWF...AS THE
BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WILL STAY NORTH OF THE REGION. VFR CONDS
OTHERWISE.

SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 KT.
WINDS DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT WITH 15-23 KT GUSTS THIS EVENING BEFORE
TURNING W-NW AND DIMINISHING FURTHER TO 8-12 KT.

GENERAL WEST FLOW AT 10 KT OR LESS ON TAP FOR TUESDAY.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING MAY NOT BE AS
STRONG AS FORECAST.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING MAY NOT BE AS
STRONG AS FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING MAY NOT BE AS
STRONG AS FORECAST.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING MAY NOT BE AS
STRONG AS FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING MAY NOT BE AS
STRONG AS FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY AFTERNOON-WEDNESDAY...VFR.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM KBDR TO KFRG.
OTHERWISE...VFR.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
THE REST OF THE AFTN IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. GUSTS, QUITE
STRONG FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, TO NEAR 30 KTS THOUGH THE EVENING.

WIND DIMINISH LATE OVERNIGHT WITH SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUE.
NOTE THAT WAVE-WATCH GUIDANCE APPEARS TOO HIGH BASED ON INITIAL
CONDITIONS.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS THEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...WITH A POSSIBLE RETURN TO 25 KT GUSTS AND 5 FT SEAS OVER THE
WEEKEND DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS/TONGUE
NEAR TERM...TONGUE
SHORT TERM...TONGUE
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...SEARS/TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...






000
FXUS61 KOKX 282010
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
410 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND REMAINS
ENTRENCHED THROUGH THE WEEK. WEAK LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP LATE
THIS WEEKEND ALONG THE COAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH INSTABILITY FROM
THE UPPER LOW REMAINS NORTH OF NEW YORK CITY/LONG ISLAND THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON. THE LINE OF MAINLY SHOWERS FROM ALBANY NY
SOUTHWEST TO NEAR STATE COLLEGE PA AS OF 3 PM WILL NEED
WATCHING...BUT DUE TO LIMITED CAPE, IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STEADY
STATE AS IT APPROACHES NORTHERN NJ TOWARDS 6 PM. AHEAD OF THIS
LINE...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. SEVERE THREAT IS LIMITED.

AFTER 6 PM THE LINE SHOULD BEGIN TO QUICKLY DIMINISH AS IT
APPROACHES NYC AND LONG ISLAND TOWARDS 7-8 PM.

THERE REMAINS IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP
CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FACING BEACHES THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

SLOW CLEARING OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S IN NYC.
WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SUN GIVES WAY TO AFTERNOON CUMULUS THAT "PANCAKE" UNDER THE
SUBSIDENCE TO BKN AT TIMES.

CLEAR TUESDAY NIGHT.

MAX/MINS ARE A BLEND OF MOS WHICH HAD LITTLE SPREAD.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS
ALONG THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FACING BEACHES THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US WILL BE THE
DOMINATING FEATURE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK BEFORE WEAKENING
THIS COMING WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
WED-FRI WITH A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE STALLED FRONT WELL SHORE BACKS
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST.

GENERALLY EXPECTING DRY AND QUIET WED THROUGH WED NIGHT. 12Z NAM AND
GFS BOTH HINTING AT ISO SHOWER/TSTM DEVELOPMENT WELL NORTH/WEST OF
NYC METRO...CORRESPONDING WITH THE REGION UNDER A PASSING SHORTWAVE.
HAVE BEEN GOING BACK AND FORTH THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS ON WHETHER
ANYTHING WILL FORM SO WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED A LOW END SLIGHT CHC
FOR PCPN FOR THE AFTN WITH JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE LOWER ATMO
BEING INJECTED IN WITH THE SWLY FLOW. OVERALL THOUGH...MAJORITY OF
THE AREA WILL ENJOY DRY WX. SIMILAR STORY ON THURS WITH ANOTHER
PASSING SHORTWAVE AND A BIT MORE MOISTURE IN THE ATMO...CLOSER TO
NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AGAIN JUST HAVE MENTION FOR
SLIGHT CHC TSTM WELL NORTH/WEST OF NYC METRO.

POTENTIAL FOR A BIT MORE ACTIVE PERIOD FRIDAY HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...THE LINGERING STALLED FRONTAL SYSTEM WELL
OFFSHORE BEGINS TO BACK AS A WARM FRONT...WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE FORMING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LINE. ALOFT...THE
DOMINATING CLOSED LOW/ASSOCIATED DEEP TROUGH BEGINS TO EDGE OFF TO
THE NORTH AND EAST. THE REGION WILL REMAIN POSITIONED THOUGH UNDER A
BROAD TROUGH...WITH MULTIPLE DECENT SHORTWAVES RIDING THE
FLOW...EACH BRINGING ENOUGH FORCING TO TRIGGER SHOWERS AND/OR TSTMS.
HAVE ATTEMPTED TO TIME OUT THE PASSING AND INCLUDED POPS TO
CORRESPOND WHERE THERE IS BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE
TIMING...FRI NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN SAT AFTN/EVENING. MODELS DIVERGE
HOWEVER ON THE SOLUTION SUN-MON WITH THE 12Z GFS BEING THE MORE
PROGRESSION IN WEAKENING THE TROUGH INTO ALMOST A ZONAL FLOW WHILE
THE ECMWF LINGERS THE TROUGH INTO THE WORK WEEK. TAKING A BLEND OF
THE SOLUTIONS FOR NOW WITH THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY...HAVE MENTION OF
SLIGHT CHC POPS SUN AFTN-MON EVENING. THE TREND SUGGESTS ANY PCPN
SUN MIGHT BE ISOLATED IN NATURE...WITH MORE SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS
MONDAY WITH BOTH A PASSING SHORTWAVE AND THE FRONT STALLING JUST
EAST OF THE AREA. AS OF NOW...THE THREAT OF ANY STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS LOOKS TO BE VERY MINIMAL.

UNDER THE PERSISTING TROUGH...TEMPS WILL HOVER A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. RISING HEIGHTS BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND WILL AID IN PUSHING TEMPS TO RIGHT AROUND NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC COLD FRONT AND DEEP UPPER TROUGH MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS...POSSIBLY A TSTM...WILL DEVELOP
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN ANY OF THE SHOWERS
IMPACTING ANY GIVEN TERMINAL...SO WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE LATEST
TAFS. WILL INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP FOR SOME SHOWERS AT KSWF...AS THE
BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WILL STAY NORTH OF THE REGION. VFR CONDS
OTHERWISE.

SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 KT.
WINDS DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT WITH 15-23 KT GUSTS THIS EVENING BEFORE
TURNING W-NW AND DIMINISHING FURTHER TO 8-12 KT.

GENERAL WEST FLOW AT 10 KT OR LESS ON TAP FOR TUESDAY.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING MAY NOT BE AS
STRONG AS FORECAST.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING MAY NOT BE AS
STRONG AS FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING MAY NOT BE AS
STRONG AS FORECAST.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING MAY NOT BE AS
STRONG AS FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING MAY NOT BE AS
STRONG AS FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY AFTERNOON-WEDNESDAY...VFR.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM KBDR TO KFRG.
OTHERWISE...VFR.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
THE REST OF THE AFTN IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. GUSTS, QUITE
STRONG FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, TO NEAR 30 KTS THOUGH THE EVENING.

WIND DIMINISH LATE OVERNIGHT WITH SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUE.
NOTE THAT WAVE-WATCH GUIDANCE APPEARS TOO HIGH BASED ON INITIAL
CONDITIONS.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS THEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...WITH A POSSIBLE RETURN TO 25 KT GUSTS AND 5 FT SEAS OVER THE
WEEKEND DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS/TONGUE
NEAR TERM...TONGUE
SHORT TERM...TONGUE
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...SEARS/TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...







000
FXUS61 KALY 282006
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
406 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO
NEAR NORTHERN MAINE BY TUESDAY MORNING. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER ON TUESDAY. ON
WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED...BUT AN
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY CAUSE A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
     SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH VALID UNTIL 8 PM...

CONVECTION ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE UPPER COMMA HEAD STILL
TRACKING EAST AND A FEW STORMS COULD STILL BECOME SEVERE IN AN
NEAR THE WATCH AREA. THE STORMS ARE MOVING...SO THE FLASH FLOOD
THREAT IS NOT HIGH OUTSIDE OF URBAN AREAS WHERE SOME ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING HAS BEEN REPORTED IN THE BERKSHIRES. RAIN WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE OUT OF THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND
EVENTUALLY OUT OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

SOME PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED BY DAYBREAK...BUT UPSTREAM
CONDITIONS AND THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LEFT OVER OUR REGION IN THE
WAKE OF ALL THE RAIN SUGGESTS SOME AREAS MAY BE MOSTLY CLOUDY TO
CLOUDY THROUGH DAYBREAK. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHOULD BE STEADY ALL
NIGHT...SUGGESTING SOME LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS
PERSISTING IN SOME AREAS THROUGH THE NIGHT. SO...NOT IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TONIGHT...BUT COLD ADVECTION SHOULD
HELP TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S...SOME UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANY MORNING CLOUDINESS SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE MORNING AND
SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S
TOMORROW...WITH AROUND 70 TO MID 70S HIGHER TERRAIN. BETTER
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TOMORROW NIGHT WITH A LOW LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS OVER THE REGION AND LIGHT WINDS. LOWS IN THE 50S...WITH
40S IN COLDER SPOTS.

BROAD UPPER ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCING MEAN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. NOT MUCH MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM DOMINATED BY NORTHERN STREAM FLOW...SO
INTERVALS OF CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SLOWLY SPREADING EAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH
LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THIS WILL BE A PERIOD OF VERY LITTLE ATMOSPHERIC MOTION ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN U.S.  DURING THIS TIME...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL
BE SITUATED ALONG THE EAST COAST.  THE CLOSENESS OF THIS FRONT TO
OUR REGION COUPLED WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE INLAND WILL RESULT IN A
STAGNANT AIR MASS OF GRADUALLY INCREASING HUMIDITY THAT WILL MEAN A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE PERIOD.
A COLD FRONT FROM CANADA WILL HAVE REACHED ONLY THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES AND SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY MONDAY...AND THUS SHALL PROVIDE NO
RELIEF TO OUR REGION.

THERE WILL ALSO BE LITTLE NOTABLE VARIATION IN THE TEMPERATURE
PATTERN...WITH HIGHS EACH DAY FROM THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S.  LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE HIGH PEAKS OF
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO AROUND 60 DEGREES IN THE LOWER MID
HUDSON VALLEY.  LOWS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHTS WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOWER 50S IN THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS...TO
THE LOWER 60S DOWN THE HUDSON AND LOWER CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS...THOUGH
READINGS MAY HOLD UP IN THE MID 60S DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY SUNDAY
NIGHT.  NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS IN ALBANY THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST ARE
IN THE LOWER 80S AND LOWER 60S...RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CHANGEABLE FLYING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS OVER
THE NEXT 6-10 HOURS THANKS TO A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA.

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK...THE
CATSKILLS...AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. THESE STORMS ARE MOVING
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST AT 20-30 MPH. WE HAVE INCLUDED THUNDER AT
ALL THE TERMINALS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
MVFR WITH ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSHOWERS THAT HIT A TERMINAL SITE.

A COLD FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BETWEEN 00Z AND 02Z THIS
EVENING. BEHIND THIS FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL TRANSPORT COOLER
AND LESS HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL END THE THREAT FOR
PRECIP...WITH SURFACE WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS FOR THIS EVENING. SOME LINGERING CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT...BUT FLYING CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE VFR FOR ALL SITES. BY LATE TONIGHT...CLOUDS SHOULD
SCATTER OUT AND WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH SO LOCALIZED FOG IS
A THREAT AT THE TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO
NEAR NORTHERN MAINE BY TUESDAY MORNING. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER ON TUESDAY. ON
WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED...BUT AN
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY CAUSE A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.

RH VALUES WILL BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT. RH
VALUES WILL BE 40 TO 55 PERCENT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR LESS
THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN SOUTH AT 15 MPH OR LESS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH SOME
STORMS AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS VERY MOIST WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S.
HAVE CONTINUED WITH ENHANCED WORDING IN FORECAST FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL.

THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTAL ARE EXPECTED MAINLY NORTH OF I-90 WITH
UP TO AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IN THUNDERSTORMS MAY RESULT IN SOME FLOODING OF LOW
LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. AREAS WHICH HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED A
ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MOST VULNERABLE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS








000
FXUS61 KALY 281949
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
349 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO
NEAR NORTHERN MAINE BY TUESDAY MORNING. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER ON TUESDAY. ON
WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED...BUT AN
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY CAUSE A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH VALID UNTIL 8 PM...

CONVECTION ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE UPPER COMMA HEAD STILL
TRACKING EAST AND A FEW STORMS COULD STILL BECOME SEVERE IN AN
NEAR THE WATCH AREA. THE STORMS ARE MOVING...SO THE FLASH FLOOD
THREAT IS NOT HIGH OUTSIDE OF URBAN AREAS WHERE SOME ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING HAS BEEN REPORTED IN THE BERKSHIRES. RAIN WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE OUT OF THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND
EVENTUALLY OUT OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

SOME PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED BY DAYBREAK...BUT UPSTREAM
CONDITIONS AND THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LEFT OVER OUR REGION IN THE
WAKE OF ALL THE RAIN SUGGESTS SOME AREAS MAY BE MOSTLY CLOUDY TO
CLOUDY THROUGH DAYBREAK. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHOULD BE STEADY ALL
NIGHT...SUGGESTING SOME LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS
PERSISTING IN SOME AREAS THROUGH THE NIGHT. SO...NOT IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TONIGHT...BUT COLD ADVECTION SHOULD
HELP TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S...SOME UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANY MORNING CLOUDINESS SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE MORNING AND
SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S
TOMORROW...WITH AROUND 70 TO MID 70S HIGHER TERRAIN. BETTER
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TOMORROW NIGHT WITH A LOW LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS OVER THE REGION AND LIGHT WINDS. LOWS IN THE 50S...WITH
40S IN COLDER SPOTS.

BROAD UPPER ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCING MEAN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. NOT MUCH MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM DOMINATED BY NORTHERN STREAM FLOW...SO
INTERVALS OF CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SLOWLY SPREADING EAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH
LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THIS WILL BE A PERIOD OF VERY LITTLE ATMOSPHERIC MOTION ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN U.S.  DURING THIS TIME...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL
BE SITUATED ALONG THE EAST COAST.  THE CLOSENESS OF THIS FRONT TO
OUR REGION COUPLED WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE INLAND WILL RESULT IN A
STAGNANT AIR MASS OF GRADUALLY INCREASING HUMIDITY THAT WILL MEAN A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE PERIOD.
A COLD FRONT FROM CANADA WILL HAVE REACHED ONLY THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES AND SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY MONDAY...AND THUS SHALL PROVIDE NO
RELIEF TO OUR REGION.

THERE WILL ALSO BE LITTLE NOTABLE VARIATION IN THE TEMPERATURE
PATTERN...WITH HIGHS EACH DAY FROM THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S.  LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE HIGH PEAKS OF
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO AROUND 60 DEGREES IN THE LOWER MID
HUDSON VALLEY.  LOWS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHTS WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOWER 50S IN THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS...TO
THE LOWER 60S DOWN THE HUDSON AND LOWER CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS...THOUGH
READINGS MAY HOLD UP IN THE MID 60S DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY SUNDAY
NIGHT.  NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS IN ALBANY THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST ARE
IN THE LOWER 80S AND LOWER 60S...RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CHANGEABLE FLYING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS OVER
THE NEXT 6-10 HOURS THANKS TO A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA.

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK...THE
CATSKILLS...AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. THESE STORMS ARE MOVING
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST AT 20-30 MPH. WE HAVE INCLUDED THUNDER AT
ALL THE TERMINALS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
MVFR WITH ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSHOWERS THAT HIT A TERMINAL SITE.

A COLD FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BETWEEN 00Z AND 02Z THIS
EVENING. BEHIND THIS FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL TRANSPORT COOLER
AND LESS HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL END THE THREAT FOR
PRECIP...WITH SURFACE WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS FOR THIS EVENING. SOME LINGERING CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT...BUT FLYING CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE VFR FOR ALL SITES. BY LATE TONIGHT...CLOUDS SHOULD
SCATTER OUT AND WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH SO LOCALIZED FOG IS
A THREAT AT THE TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO
NEAR NORTHERN MAINE BY TUESDAY MORNING. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER ON TUESDAY. ON
WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED...BUT AN
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY CAUSE A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.

RH VALUES WILL BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT. RH
VALUES WILL BE 40 TO 55 PERCENT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR LESS
THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN SOUTH AT 15 MPH OR LESS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH SOME
STORMS AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS VERY MOIST WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S.
HAVE CONTINUED WITH ENHANCED WORDING IN FORECAST FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL.

THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTAL ARE EXPECTED MAINLY NORTH OF I-90 WITH
UP TO AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IN THUNDERSTORMS MAY RESULT IN SOME FLOODING OF LOW
LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. AREAS WHICH HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED A
ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MOST VULNERABLE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS








000
FXUS61 KALY 281949
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
349 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO
NEAR NORTHERN MAINE BY TUESDAY MORNING. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER ON TUESDAY. ON
WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED...BUT AN
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY CAUSE A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH VALID UNTIL 8 PM...

CONVECTION ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE UPPER COMMA HEAD STILL
TRACKING EAST AND A FEW STORMS COULD STILL BECOME SEVERE IN AN
NEAR THE WATCH AREA. THE STORMS ARE MOVING...SO THE FLASH FLOOD
THREAT IS NOT HIGH OUTSIDE OF URBAN AREAS WHERE SOME ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING HAS BEEN REPORTED IN THE BERKSHIRES. RAIN WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE OUT OF THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND
EVENTUALLY OUT OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

SOME PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED BY DAYBREAK...BUT UPSTREAM
CONDITIONS AND THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LEFT OVER OUR REGION IN THE
WAKE OF ALL THE RAIN SUGGESTS SOME AREAS MAY BE MOSTLY CLOUDY TO
CLOUDY THROUGH DAYBREAK. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHOULD BE STEADY ALL
NIGHT...SUGGESTING SOME LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS
PERSISTING IN SOME AREAS THROUGH THE NIGHT. SO...NOT IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TONIGHT...BUT COLD ADVECTION SHOULD
HELP TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S...SOME UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANY MORNING CLOUDINESS SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE MORNING AND
SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S
TOMORROW...WITH AROUND 70 TO MID 70S HIGHER TERRAIN. BETTER
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TOMORROW NIGHT WITH A LOW LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS OVER THE REGION AND LIGHT WINDS. LOWS IN THE 50S...WITH
40S IN COLDER SPOTS.

BROAD UPPER ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCING MEAN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. NOT MUCH MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM DOMINATED BY NORTHERN STREAM FLOW...SO
INTERVALS OF CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SLOWLY SPREADING EAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH
LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THIS WILL BE A PERIOD OF VERY LITTLE ATMOSPHERIC MOTION ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN U.S.  DURING THIS TIME...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL
BE SITUATED ALONG THE EAST COAST.  THE CLOSENESS OF THIS FRONT TO
OUR REGION COUPLED WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE INLAND WILL RESULT IN A
STAGNANT AIR MASS OF GRADUALLY INCREASING HUMIDITY THAT WILL MEAN A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE PERIOD.
A COLD FRONT FROM CANADA WILL HAVE REACHED ONLY THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES AND SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY MONDAY...AND THUS SHALL PROVIDE NO
RELIEF TO OUR REGION.

THERE WILL ALSO BE LITTLE NOTABLE VARIATION IN THE TEMPERATURE
PATTERN...WITH HIGHS EACH DAY FROM THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S.  LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE HIGH PEAKS OF
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO AROUND 60 DEGREES IN THE LOWER MID
HUDSON VALLEY.  LOWS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHTS WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOWER 50S IN THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS...TO
THE LOWER 60S DOWN THE HUDSON AND LOWER CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS...THOUGH
READINGS MAY HOLD UP IN THE MID 60S DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY SUNDAY
NIGHT.  NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS IN ALBANY THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST ARE
IN THE LOWER 80S AND LOWER 60S...RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CHANGEABLE FLYING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS OVER
THE NEXT 6-10 HOURS THANKS TO A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA.

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK...THE
CATSKILLS...AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. THESE STORMS ARE MOVING
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST AT 20-30 MPH. WE HAVE INCLUDED THUNDER AT
ALL THE TERMINALS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
MVFR WITH ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSHOWERS THAT HIT A TERMINAL SITE.

A COLD FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BETWEEN 00Z AND 02Z THIS
EVENING. BEHIND THIS FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL TRANSPORT COOLER
AND LESS HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL END THE THREAT FOR
PRECIP...WITH SURFACE WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS FOR THIS EVENING. SOME LINGERING CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT...BUT FLYING CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE VFR FOR ALL SITES. BY LATE TONIGHT...CLOUDS SHOULD
SCATTER OUT AND WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH SO LOCALIZED FOG IS
A THREAT AT THE TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO
NEAR NORTHERN MAINE BY TUESDAY MORNING. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER ON TUESDAY. ON
WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED...BUT AN
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY CAUSE A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.

RH VALUES WILL BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT. RH
VALUES WILL BE 40 TO 55 PERCENT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR LESS
THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN SOUTH AT 15 MPH OR LESS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH SOME
STORMS AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS VERY MOIST WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S.
HAVE CONTINUED WITH ENHANCED WORDING IN FORECAST FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL.

THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTAL ARE EXPECTED MAINLY NORTH OF I-90 WITH
UP TO AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IN THUNDERSTORMS MAY RESULT IN SOME FLOODING OF LOW
LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. AREAS WHICH HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED A
ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MOST VULNERABLE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS








000
FXUS61 KALY 281949
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
349 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO
NEAR NORTHERN MAINE BY TUESDAY MORNING. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER ON TUESDAY. ON
WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED...BUT AN
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY CAUSE A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH VALID UNTIL 8 PM...

CONVECTION ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE UPPER COMMA HEAD STILL
TRACKING EAST AND A FEW STORMS COULD STILL BECOME SEVERE IN AN
NEAR THE WATCH AREA. THE STORMS ARE MOVING...SO THE FLASH FLOOD
THREAT IS NOT HIGH OUTSIDE OF URBAN AREAS WHERE SOME ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING HAS BEEN REPORTED IN THE BERKSHIRES. RAIN WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE OUT OF THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND
EVENTUALLY OUT OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

SOME PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED BY DAYBREAK...BUT UPSTREAM
CONDITIONS AND THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LEFT OVER OUR REGION IN THE
WAKE OF ALL THE RAIN SUGGESTS SOME AREAS MAY BE MOSTLY CLOUDY TO
CLOUDY THROUGH DAYBREAK. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHOULD BE STEADY ALL
NIGHT...SUGGESTING SOME LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS
PERSISTING IN SOME AREAS THROUGH THE NIGHT. SO...NOT IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TONIGHT...BUT COLD ADVECTION SHOULD
HELP TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S...SOME UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANY MORNING CLOUDINESS SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE MORNING AND
SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S
TOMORROW...WITH AROUND 70 TO MID 70S HIGHER TERRAIN. BETTER
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TOMORROW NIGHT WITH A LOW LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS OVER THE REGION AND LIGHT WINDS. LOWS IN THE 50S...WITH
40S IN COLDER SPOTS.

BROAD UPPER ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCING MEAN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. NOT MUCH MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM DOMINATED BY NORTHERN STREAM FLOW...SO
INTERVALS OF CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SLOWLY SPREADING EAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH
LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THIS WILL BE A PERIOD OF VERY LITTLE ATMOSPHERIC MOTION ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN U.S.  DURING THIS TIME...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL
BE SITUATED ALONG THE EAST COAST.  THE CLOSENESS OF THIS FRONT TO
OUR REGION COUPLED WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE INLAND WILL RESULT IN A
STAGNANT AIR MASS OF GRADUALLY INCREASING HUMIDITY THAT WILL MEAN A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE PERIOD.
A COLD FRONT FROM CANADA WILL HAVE REACHED ONLY THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES AND SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY MONDAY...AND THUS SHALL PROVIDE NO
RELIEF TO OUR REGION.

THERE WILL ALSO BE LITTLE NOTABLE VARIATION IN THE TEMPERATURE
PATTERN...WITH HIGHS EACH DAY FROM THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S.  LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE HIGH PEAKS OF
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO AROUND 60 DEGREES IN THE LOWER MID
HUDSON VALLEY.  LOWS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHTS WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOWER 50S IN THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS...TO
THE LOWER 60S DOWN THE HUDSON AND LOWER CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS...THOUGH
READINGS MAY HOLD UP IN THE MID 60S DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY SUNDAY
NIGHT.  NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS IN ALBANY THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST ARE
IN THE LOWER 80S AND LOWER 60S...RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CHANGEABLE FLYING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS OVER
THE NEXT 6-10 HOURS THANKS TO A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA.

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK...THE
CATSKILLS...AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. THESE STORMS ARE MOVING
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST AT 20-30 MPH. WE HAVE INCLUDED THUNDER AT
ALL THE TERMINALS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
MVFR WITH ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSHOWERS THAT HIT A TERMINAL SITE.

A COLD FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BETWEEN 00Z AND 02Z THIS
EVENING. BEHIND THIS FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL TRANSPORT COOLER
AND LESS HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL END THE THREAT FOR
PRECIP...WITH SURFACE WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS FOR THIS EVENING. SOME LINGERING CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT...BUT FLYING CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE VFR FOR ALL SITES. BY LATE TONIGHT...CLOUDS SHOULD
SCATTER OUT AND WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH SO LOCALIZED FOG IS
A THREAT AT THE TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO
NEAR NORTHERN MAINE BY TUESDAY MORNING. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER ON TUESDAY. ON
WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED...BUT AN
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY CAUSE A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.

RH VALUES WILL BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT. RH
VALUES WILL BE 40 TO 55 PERCENT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR LESS
THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN SOUTH AT 15 MPH OR LESS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH SOME
STORMS AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS VERY MOIST WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S.
HAVE CONTINUED WITH ENHANCED WORDING IN FORECAST FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL.

THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTAL ARE EXPECTED MAINLY NORTH OF I-90 WITH
UP TO AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IN THUNDERSTORMS MAY RESULT IN SOME FLOODING OF LOW
LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. AREAS WHICH HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED A
ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MOST VULNERABLE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS








000
FXUS61 KALY 281949
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
349 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO
NEAR NORTHERN MAINE BY TUESDAY MORNING. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER ON TUESDAY. ON
WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED...BUT AN
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY CAUSE A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH VALID UNTIL 8 PM...

CONVECTION ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE UPPER COMMA HEAD STILL
TRACKING EAST AND A FEW STORMS COULD STILL BECOME SEVERE IN AN
NEAR THE WATCH AREA. THE STORMS ARE MOVING...SO THE FLASH FLOOD
THREAT IS NOT HIGH OUTSIDE OF URBAN AREAS WHERE SOME ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING HAS BEEN REPORTED IN THE BERKSHIRES. RAIN WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE OUT OF THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND
EVENTUALLY OUT OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

SOME PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED BY DAYBREAK...BUT UPSTREAM
CONDITIONS AND THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LEFT OVER OUR REGION IN THE
WAKE OF ALL THE RAIN SUGGESTS SOME AREAS MAY BE MOSTLY CLOUDY TO
CLOUDY THROUGH DAYBREAK. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHOULD BE STEADY ALL
NIGHT...SUGGESTING SOME LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS
PERSISTING IN SOME AREAS THROUGH THE NIGHT. SO...NOT IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TONIGHT...BUT COLD ADVECTION SHOULD
HELP TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S...SOME UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANY MORNING CLOUDINESS SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE MORNING AND
SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S
TOMORROW...WITH AROUND 70 TO MID 70S HIGHER TERRAIN. BETTER
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TOMORROW NIGHT WITH A LOW LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS OVER THE REGION AND LIGHT WINDS. LOWS IN THE 50S...WITH
40S IN COLDER SPOTS.

BROAD UPPER ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCING MEAN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. NOT MUCH MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM DOMINATED BY NORTHERN STREAM FLOW...SO
INTERVALS OF CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SLOWLY SPREADING EAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH
LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THIS WILL BE A PERIOD OF VERY LITTLE ATMOSPHERIC MOTION ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN U.S.  DURING THIS TIME...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL
BE SITUATED ALONG THE EAST COAST.  THE CLOSENESS OF THIS FRONT TO
OUR REGION COUPLED WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE INLAND WILL RESULT IN A
STAGNANT AIR MASS OF GRADUALLY INCREASING HUMIDITY THAT WILL MEAN A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE PERIOD.
A COLD FRONT FROM CANADA WILL HAVE REACHED ONLY THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES AND SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY MONDAY...AND THUS SHALL PROVIDE NO
RELIEF TO OUR REGION.

THERE WILL ALSO BE LITTLE NOTABLE VARIATION IN THE TEMPERATURE
PATTERN...WITH HIGHS EACH DAY FROM THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S.  LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE HIGH PEAKS OF
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO AROUND 60 DEGREES IN THE LOWER MID
HUDSON VALLEY.  LOWS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHTS WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOWER 50S IN THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS...TO
THE LOWER 60S DOWN THE HUDSON AND LOWER CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS...THOUGH
READINGS MAY HOLD UP IN THE MID 60S DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY SUNDAY
NIGHT.  NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS IN ALBANY THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST ARE
IN THE LOWER 80S AND LOWER 60S...RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CHANGEABLE FLYING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS OVER
THE NEXT 6-10 HOURS THANKS TO A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA.

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK...THE
CATSKILLS...AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. THESE STORMS ARE MOVING
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST AT 20-30 MPH. WE HAVE INCLUDED THUNDER AT
ALL THE TERMINALS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
MVFR WITH ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSHOWERS THAT HIT A TERMINAL SITE.

A COLD FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BETWEEN 00Z AND 02Z THIS
EVENING. BEHIND THIS FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL TRANSPORT COOLER
AND LESS HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL END THE THREAT FOR
PRECIP...WITH SURFACE WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS FOR THIS EVENING. SOME LINGERING CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT...BUT FLYING CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE VFR FOR ALL SITES. BY LATE TONIGHT...CLOUDS SHOULD
SCATTER OUT AND WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH SO LOCALIZED FOG IS
A THREAT AT THE TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO
NEAR NORTHERN MAINE BY TUESDAY MORNING. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER ON TUESDAY. ON
WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED...BUT AN
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY CAUSE A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.

RH VALUES WILL BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT. RH
VALUES WILL BE 40 TO 55 PERCENT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR LESS
THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN SOUTH AT 15 MPH OR LESS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH SOME
STORMS AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS VERY MOIST WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S.
HAVE CONTINUED WITH ENHANCED WORDING IN FORECAST FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL.

THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTAL ARE EXPECTED MAINLY NORTH OF I-90 WITH
UP TO AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IN THUNDERSTORMS MAY RESULT IN SOME FLOODING OF LOW
LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. AREAS WHICH HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED A
ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MOST VULNERABLE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS








000
FXUS61 KOKX 281939
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
339 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND REMAINS
ENTRENCHED THROUGH THE WEEK. WEAK LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP LATE
THIS WEEKEND ALONG THE COAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH INSTABILITY FROM
THE UPPER LOW REMAINS NORTH OF NEW YORK CITY/LONG ISLAND THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON. THE LINE OF MAINLY SHOWERS FROM ALBANY NY
SOUTHWEST TO NEAR STATE COLLEGE PA AS OF 3 PM WILL NEED
WATCHING...BUT DUE TO LIMITED CAPE, IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STEADY
STATE AS IT APPROACHES NORTHERN NJ TOWARDS 6 PM. AHEAD OF THIS
LINE...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. SEVERE THREAT IS LIMITED.

AFTER 6 PM THE LINE SHOULD BEGIN TO QUICKLY DIMINISH AS IT
APPROACHES NYC AND LONG ISLAND TOWARDS 7-8 PM.

THERE REMAINS IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP
CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FACING BEACHES THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

SLOW CLEARING OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S IN NYC.
WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SUN GIVES WAY TO AFTERNOON CUMULUS THAT "PANCAKE" UNDER THE
SUBSIDENCE TO BKN AT TIMES.

CLEAR TUESDAY NIGHT.

MAX/MINS ARE A BLEND OF MOS WHICH HAD LITTLE SPREAD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US WILL BE THE
DOMINATING FEATURE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK BEFORE WEAKENING
THIS COMING WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
WED-FRI WITH A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE STALLED FRONT WELL SHORE BACKS
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST.

GENERALLY EXPECTING DRY AND QUIET WED THROUGH WED NIGHT. 12Z NAM AND
GFS BOTH HINTING AT ISO SHOWER/TSTM DEVELOPMENT WELL NORTH/WEST OF
NYC METRO...CORRESPONDING WITH THE REGION UNDER A PASSING SHORTWAVE.
HAVE BEEN GOING BACK AND FORTH THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS ON WHETHER
ANYTHING WILL FORM SO WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED A LOW END SLIGHT CHC
FOR PCPN FOR THE AFTN WITH JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE LOWER ATMO
BEING INJECTED IN WITH THE SWLY FLOW. OVERALL THOUGH...MAJORITY OF
THE AREA WILL ENJOY DRY WX. SIMILAR STORY ON THURS WITH ANOTHER
PASSING SHORTWAVE AND A BIT MORE MOISTURE IN THE ATMO...CLOSER TO
NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AGAIN JUST HAVE MENTION FOR
SLIGHT CHC TSTM WELL NORTH/WEST OF NYC METRO.

POTENTIAL FOR A BIT MORE ACTIVE PERIOD FRIDAY HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...THE LINGERING STALLED FRONTAL SYSTEM WELL
OFFSHORE BEGINS TO BACK AS A WARM FRONT...WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE FORMING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LINE. ALOFT...THE
DOMINATING CLOSED LOW/ASSOCIATED DEEP TROUGH BEGINS TO EDGE OFF TO
THE NORTH AND EAST. THE REGION WILL REMAIN POSITIONED THOUGH UNDER A
BROAD TROUGH...WITH MULTIPLE DECENT SHORTWAVES RIDING THE
FLOW...EACH BRINGING ENOUGH FORCING TO TRIGGER SHOWERS AND/OR TSTMS.
HAVE ATTEMPTED TO TIME OUT THE PASSING AND INCLUDED POPS TO
CORRESPOND WHERE THERE IS BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE
TIMING...FRI NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN SAT AFTN/EVENING. MODELS DIVERGE
HOWEVER ON THE SOLUTION SUN-MON WITH THE 12Z GFS BEING THE MORE
PROGRESSION IN WEAKENING THE TROUGH INTO ALMOST A ZONAL FLOW WHILE
THE ECMWF LINGERS THE TROUGH INTO THE WORK WEEK. TAKING A BLEND OF
THE SOLUTIONS FOR NOW WITH THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY...HAVE MENTION OF
SLIGHT CHC POPS SUN AFTN-MON EVENING. THE TREND SUGGESTS ANY PCPN
SUN MIGHT BE ISOLATED IN NATURE...WITH MORE SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS
MONDAY WITH BOTH A PASSING SHORTWAVE AND THE FRONT STALLING JUST
EAST OF THE AREA. AS OF NOW...THE THREAT OF ANY STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS LOOKS TO BE VERY MINIMAL.

UNDER THE PERSISTING TROUGH...TEMPS WILL HOVER A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. RISING HEIGHTS BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND WILL AID IN PUSHING TEMPS TO RIGHT AROUND NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC COLD FRONT AND DEEP UPPER TROUGH MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS...POSSIBLY A TSTM...WILL DEVELOP
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN ANY OF THE SHOWERS
IMPACTING ANY GIVEN TERMINAL...SO WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE LATEST
TAFS. WILL INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP FOR SOME SHOWERS AT KSWF...AS THE
BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WILL STAY NORTH OF THE REGION. VFR CONDS
OTHERWISE.

SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 KT.
WINDS DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT WITH 15-23 KT GUSTS THIS EVENING BEFORE
TURNING W-NW AND DIMINISHING FURTHER TO 8-12 KT.

GENERAL WEST FLOW AT 10 KT OR LESS ON TAP FOR TUESDAY.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING MAY NOT BE AS
STRONG AS FORECAST.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING MAY NOT BE AS
STRONG AS FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING MAY NOT BE AS
STRONG AS FORECAST.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING MAY NOT BE AS
STRONG AS FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING MAY NOT BE AS
STRONG AS FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY AFTERNOON-WEDNESDAY...VFR.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM KBDR TO KFRG.
OTHERWISE...VFR.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
THE REST OF THE AFTN IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. GUSTS, QUITE
STRONG FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, TO NEAR 30 KTS THOUGH THE EVENING.

WIND DIMINISH LATE OVERNIGHT WITH SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUE.
NOTE THAT WAVE-WATCH GUIDANCE APPEARS TOO HIGH BASED ON INITIAL
CONDITIONS.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS THEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...WITH A POSSIBLE RETURN TO 25 KT GUSTS AND 5 FT SEAS OVER THE
WEEKEND DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS/TONGUE
NEAR TERM...TONGUE
SHORT TERM...TONGUE
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...SEARS/TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...






000
FXUS61 KOKX 281939
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
339 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND REMAINS
ENTRENCHED THROUGH THE WEEK. WEAK LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP LATE
THIS WEEKEND ALONG THE COAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH INSTABILITY FROM
THE UPPER LOW REMAINS NORTH OF NEW YORK CITY/LONG ISLAND THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON. THE LINE OF MAINLY SHOWERS FROM ALBANY NY
SOUTHWEST TO NEAR STATE COLLEGE PA AS OF 3 PM WILL NEED
WATCHING...BUT DUE TO LIMITED CAPE, IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STEADY
STATE AS IT APPROACHES NORTHERN NJ TOWARDS 6 PM. AHEAD OF THIS
LINE...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. SEVERE THREAT IS LIMITED.

AFTER 6 PM THE LINE SHOULD BEGIN TO QUICKLY DIMINISH AS IT
APPROACHES NYC AND LONG ISLAND TOWARDS 7-8 PM.

THERE REMAINS IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP
CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FACING BEACHES THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

SLOW CLEARING OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S IN NYC.
WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SUN GIVES WAY TO AFTERNOON CUMULUS THAT "PANCAKE" UNDER THE
SUBSIDENCE TO BKN AT TIMES.

CLEAR TUESDAY NIGHT.

MAX/MINS ARE A BLEND OF MOS WHICH HAD LITTLE SPREAD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US WILL BE THE
DOMINATING FEATURE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK BEFORE WEAKENING
THIS COMING WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
WED-FRI WITH A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE STALLED FRONT WELL SHORE BACKS
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST.

GENERALLY EXPECTING DRY AND QUIET WED THROUGH WED NIGHT. 12Z NAM AND
GFS BOTH HINTING AT ISO SHOWER/TSTM DEVELOPMENT WELL NORTH/WEST OF
NYC METRO...CORRESPONDING WITH THE REGION UNDER A PASSING SHORTWAVE.
HAVE BEEN GOING BACK AND FORTH THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS ON WHETHER
ANYTHING WILL FORM SO WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED A LOW END SLIGHT CHC
FOR PCPN FOR THE AFTN WITH JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE LOWER ATMO
BEING INJECTED IN WITH THE SWLY FLOW. OVERALL THOUGH...MAJORITY OF
THE AREA WILL ENJOY DRY WX. SIMILAR STORY ON THURS WITH ANOTHER
PASSING SHORTWAVE AND A BIT MORE MOISTURE IN THE ATMO...CLOSER TO
NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AGAIN JUST HAVE MENTION FOR
SLIGHT CHC TSTM WELL NORTH/WEST OF NYC METRO.

POTENTIAL FOR A BIT MORE ACTIVE PERIOD FRIDAY HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...THE LINGERING STALLED FRONTAL SYSTEM WELL
OFFSHORE BEGINS TO BACK AS A WARM FRONT...WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE FORMING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LINE. ALOFT...THE
DOMINATING CLOSED LOW/ASSOCIATED DEEP TROUGH BEGINS TO EDGE OFF TO
THE NORTH AND EAST. THE REGION WILL REMAIN POSITIONED THOUGH UNDER A
BROAD TROUGH...WITH MULTIPLE DECENT SHORTWAVES RIDING THE
FLOW...EACH BRINGING ENOUGH FORCING TO TRIGGER SHOWERS AND/OR TSTMS.
HAVE ATTEMPTED TO TIME OUT THE PASSING AND INCLUDED POPS TO
CORRESPOND WHERE THERE IS BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE
TIMING...FRI NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN SAT AFTN/EVENING. MODELS DIVERGE
HOWEVER ON THE SOLUTION SUN-MON WITH THE 12Z GFS BEING THE MORE
PROGRESSION IN WEAKENING THE TROUGH INTO ALMOST A ZONAL FLOW WHILE
THE ECMWF LINGERS THE TROUGH INTO THE WORK WEEK. TAKING A BLEND OF
THE SOLUTIONS FOR NOW WITH THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY...HAVE MENTION OF
SLIGHT CHC POPS SUN AFTN-MON EVENING. THE TREND SUGGESTS ANY PCPN
SUN MIGHT BE ISOLATED IN NATURE...WITH MORE SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS
MONDAY WITH BOTH A PASSING SHORTWAVE AND THE FRONT STALLING JUST
EAST OF THE AREA. AS OF NOW...THE THREAT OF ANY STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS LOOKS TO BE VERY MINIMAL.

UNDER THE PERSISTING TROUGH...TEMPS WILL HOVER A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. RISING HEIGHTS BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND WILL AID IN PUSHING TEMPS TO RIGHT AROUND NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC COLD FRONT AND DEEP UPPER TROUGH MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS...POSSIBLY A TSTM...WILL DEVELOP
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN ANY OF THE SHOWERS
IMPACTING ANY GIVEN TERMINAL...SO WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE LATEST
TAFS. WILL INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP FOR SOME SHOWERS AT KSWF...AS THE
BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WILL STAY NORTH OF THE REGION. VFR CONDS
OTHERWISE.

SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 KT.
WINDS DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT WITH 15-23 KT GUSTS THIS EVENING BEFORE
TURNING W-NW AND DIMINISHING FURTHER TO 8-12 KT.

GENERAL WEST FLOW AT 10 KT OR LESS ON TAP FOR TUESDAY.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING MAY NOT BE AS
STRONG AS FORECAST.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING MAY NOT BE AS
STRONG AS FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING MAY NOT BE AS
STRONG AS FORECAST.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING MAY NOT BE AS
STRONG AS FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING MAY NOT BE AS
STRONG AS FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY AFTERNOON-WEDNESDAY...VFR.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM KBDR TO KFRG.
OTHERWISE...VFR.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
THE REST OF THE AFTN IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. GUSTS, QUITE
STRONG FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, TO NEAR 30 KTS THOUGH THE EVENING.

WIND DIMINISH LATE OVERNIGHT WITH SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUE.
NOTE THAT WAVE-WATCH GUIDANCE APPEARS TOO HIGH BASED ON INITIAL
CONDITIONS.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS THEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...WITH A POSSIBLE RETURN TO 25 KT GUSTS AND 5 FT SEAS OVER THE
WEEKEND DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS/TONGUE
NEAR TERM...TONGUE
SHORT TERM...TONGUE
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...SEARS/TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...







000
FXUS61 KBOX 281905
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
305 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RATHER STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BY JULY STANDARDS WILL MOVE
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING WITH ITS ATTENDING COLD
FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT AND THEN OFFSHORE
TUE. MAINLY DRY AND LESS HUMID WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THIS WORK WEEK. THIS WEEKEND AN OFFSHORE FRONT MAY BUILD BACK
INTO NEW ENGLAND ALONG WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS WILL
RESULT IN THE RISK OF SHOWERS AND MORE HUMID WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
*** FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON ***

LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWING IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG MEAN LAYER CAPE
ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SURFACE-BASED CAPE VALUES WERE
APPROACHING 2000 J/KG. IN ADDITION TO THIS FAIRLY POTENT
INSTABILITY...EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES OF 30-45 KT WERE OBSERVED.
ALL THESE INGREDIENTS POINT TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE
OUT THE RISK FOR LARGE HAIL OR AN ISOLATED TORNADO. A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 8 PM. WE ARE MONITORING.

ONCE STORMS DIMINISH THIS EVENING...EXPECTING A COLD FRONT TO
FINALLY PUSH OFFSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS SHOULD MEAN LESS HUMID
AIR ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT...ALONG WITH DRIER AIR AND CLEARER SKIES.
DEPENDING UPON THE TIMING OF THE CLEARING...AND THE AMOUNT OF
LEFTOVER LOW-LEVEL HUMIDITY...THERE COULD BE SOME AREAS OF FOG IN
THE USUAL VALLEYS FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY...RESULTING
IN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. NOT MUCH OF AIRMASS CHANGE SO HIGHS ONCE
AGAIN SHOULD TOP OFF IN 70S TO AROUND 80 BUT WITH SIGNIFICANTLY
LOWER HUMIDITY. WEAK GRADIENT SUPPORTS AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES
ALONG BOTH COASTS. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAINLY DRY/QUIET AND SEASONABLE WEATHER WED THRU FRI
* POSSIBLY UNSETTLED AND MORE HUMID THIS WEEKEND

WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY...

LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST EARLY THIS PERIOD
HOWEVER THE MEAN MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS FAR ENOUGH EAST TO KEEP
THE DEEP PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE OFFSHORE. THUS MAINLY DRY
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL WED THRU FRI. HOWEVER GIVEN COOL TEMPS ALOFT
COMBINED WITH CYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW CAN/T RULE OUT A LOW RISK OF A
FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS/T-STORMS INLAND.

AS FOR TEMPS...GIVEN THE BELOW NORMAL 500 HEIGHTS EXPECT LATE
JULY/EARLY AUG SUN ANGLE TO PROVIDE MILD DAYS BUT DEW PTS IN THE 50S
WILL YIELD COMFORTABLY COOL NIGHTS.

THIS WEEKEND...

NORTHEAST TROUGH RETROGRADES TO THE MS VLY THIS WEEKEND. THIS OPENS
THE DOOR FOR TROPICAL MOISTURE AND THE OFFSHORE FRONT TO BACK INTO
NEW ENGLAND...ESPECIALLY EASTERN MA AND RI. THIS WILL INCREASE THE
RISK FOR SHOWERS AND T-STORMS ALONG WITH MORE HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING.

MAINLY VFR ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SCATTERED MVFR IN LOW CLOUDS TOWARDS THE SOUTH COAST. EXPECTING
MORE MVFR...AND POSSIBLY BRIEF IFR...IN SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA
THROUGH 29/00Z. A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG OR DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR AFTER 00Z TUE...ALTHOUGH PATCHY
MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN FOG. VFR TUE WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES.
MAINLY VFR TUE NIGHT.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. MOST TSRA SHOULD REMAIN W
OF AIRPORT THROUGH 29/00Z.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. TS MOST LIKELY THROUGH
28/22Z.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE THRU FRI
THEN LOWER CONFIDENCE INTO THIS WEEKEND.

VFR EXPECT A LOW RISK FOR PATCHY IFR IN EARLY MORNING FOG EACH DAY.
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSTMS MAINLY WEST OF
MHT AND ORH. BY SAT CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR COMING ONSHORE INTO EASTERN
MA AND RI ALONG WITH THREAT OF SHOWERS. MARGINAL VFR-MVFR LIKELY
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE NIGHT. MAIN CONCERN IS FOR ROUGH
SEAS ON SOUTH COASTAL WATERS...WHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES
INTO TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES WATERS TONIGHT...BUT
EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY DENSE FOG...AT LEAST EARLY
TONIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES LATE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE WATERS TUESDAY...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES.
SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDE OFFSHORE.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS WED THRU FRI THEN SE WINDS POSSIBLY
INCREASING SAT PENDING STRENGTH AND TRACK OF FRONTAL WAVE MOVING NE
FROM THE MID ATLC. FAIR VSBY WED THRU FRI THEN POSSIBLY LOWERING SAT
IN SHOWERS AND FOG.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/NOCERA
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...BELK/NOCERA
MARINE...BELK/NOCERA



000
FXUS61 KBOX 281905
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
305 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RATHER STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BY JULY STANDARDS WILL MOVE
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING WITH ITS ATTENDING COLD
FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT AND THEN OFFSHORE
TUE. MAINLY DRY AND LESS HUMID WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THIS WORK WEEK. THIS WEEKEND AN OFFSHORE FRONT MAY BUILD BACK
INTO NEW ENGLAND ALONG WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS WILL
RESULT IN THE RISK OF SHOWERS AND MORE HUMID WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
*** FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON ***

LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWING IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG MEAN LAYER CAPE
ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SURFACE-BASED CAPE VALUES WERE
APPROACHING 2000 J/KG. IN ADDITION TO THIS FAIRLY POTENT
INSTABILITY...EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES OF 30-45 KT WERE OBSERVED.
ALL THESE INGREDIENTS POINT TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE
OUT THE RISK FOR LARGE HAIL OR AN ISOLATED TORNADO. A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 8 PM. WE ARE MONITORING.

ONCE STORMS DIMINISH THIS EVENING...EXPECTING A COLD FRONT TO
FINALLY PUSH OFFSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS SHOULD MEAN LESS HUMID
AIR ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT...ALONG WITH DRIER AIR AND CLEARER SKIES.
DEPENDING UPON THE TIMING OF THE CLEARING...AND THE AMOUNT OF
LEFTOVER LOW-LEVEL HUMIDITY...THERE COULD BE SOME AREAS OF FOG IN
THE USUAL VALLEYS FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY...RESULTING
IN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. NOT MUCH OF AIRMASS CHANGE SO HIGHS ONCE
AGAIN SHOULD TOP OFF IN 70S TO AROUND 80 BUT WITH SIGNIFICANTLY
LOWER HUMIDITY. WEAK GRADIENT SUPPORTS AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES
ALONG BOTH COASTS. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAINLY DRY/QUIET AND SEASONABLE WEATHER WED THRU FRI
* POSSIBLY UNSETTLED AND MORE HUMID THIS WEEKEND

WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY...

LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST EARLY THIS PERIOD
HOWEVER THE MEAN MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS FAR ENOUGH EAST TO KEEP
THE DEEP PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE OFFSHORE. THUS MAINLY DRY
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL WED THRU FRI. HOWEVER GIVEN COOL TEMPS ALOFT
COMBINED WITH CYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW CAN/T RULE OUT A LOW RISK OF A
FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS/T-STORMS INLAND.

AS FOR TEMPS...GIVEN THE BELOW NORMAL 500 HEIGHTS EXPECT LATE
JULY/EARLY AUG SUN ANGLE TO PROVIDE MILD DAYS BUT DEW PTS IN THE 50S
WILL YIELD COMFORTABLY COOL NIGHTS.

THIS WEEKEND...

NORTHEAST TROUGH RETROGRADES TO THE MS VLY THIS WEEKEND. THIS OPENS
THE DOOR FOR TROPICAL MOISTURE AND THE OFFSHORE FRONT TO BACK INTO
NEW ENGLAND...ESPECIALLY EASTERN MA AND RI. THIS WILL INCREASE THE
RISK FOR SHOWERS AND T-STORMS ALONG WITH MORE HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING.

MAINLY VFR ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SCATTERED MVFR IN LOW CLOUDS TOWARDS THE SOUTH COAST. EXPECTING
MORE MVFR...AND POSSIBLY BRIEF IFR...IN SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA
THROUGH 29/00Z. A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG OR DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR AFTER 00Z TUE...ALTHOUGH PATCHY
MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN FOG. VFR TUE WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES.
MAINLY VFR TUE NIGHT.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. MOST TSRA SHOULD REMAIN W
OF AIRPORT THROUGH 29/00Z.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. TS MOST LIKELY THROUGH
28/22Z.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE THRU FRI
THEN LOWER CONFIDENCE INTO THIS WEEKEND.

VFR EXPECT A LOW RISK FOR PATCHY IFR IN EARLY MORNING FOG EACH DAY.
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSTMS MAINLY WEST OF
MHT AND ORH. BY SAT CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR COMING ONSHORE INTO EASTERN
MA AND RI ALONG WITH THREAT OF SHOWERS. MARGINAL VFR-MVFR LIKELY
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE NIGHT. MAIN CONCERN IS FOR ROUGH
SEAS ON SOUTH COASTAL WATERS...WHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES
INTO TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES WATERS TONIGHT...BUT
EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY DENSE FOG...AT LEAST EARLY
TONIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES LATE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE WATERS TUESDAY...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES.
SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDE OFFSHORE.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS WED THRU FRI THEN SE WINDS POSSIBLY
INCREASING SAT PENDING STRENGTH AND TRACK OF FRONTAL WAVE MOVING NE
FROM THE MID ATLC. FAIR VSBY WED THRU FRI THEN POSSIBLY LOWERING SAT
IN SHOWERS AND FOG.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/NOCERA
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...BELK/NOCERA
MARINE...BELK/NOCERA




000
FXUS61 KBOX 281835
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
235 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RATHER STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BY JULY STANDARDS WILL MOVE
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING WITH ITS ATTENDING COLD
FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT AND THEN OFFSHORE
TUE. MAINLY DRY AND LESS HUMID WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS WEEKEND THE FRONT OFFSHORE MAY BUILD BACK
INTO NEW ENGLAND ALONG WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS WILL
RESULT IN THE RISK OF SHOWERS AND MORE HUMID WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

*** FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON ***

1135 AM UPDATE...
JUST MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. SUNSHINE HAS
BROKEN THROUGH THE CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MA. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE THREAT OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

ONCE THIS INITIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS LIFTS N BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS.

MODELS INSISTENT THAT DRY SLOT WILL WORK ITS WAY UP COAST INTO SE
NEW ENGLAND...AND DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD RESIDE ACROSS INTERIOR AS
SEEN IN K-INDEX FIELDS. INSTABILITY IS IN QUESTION AS WE ARE NOT
CONFIDENT ON HOW MUCH CLEARING WILL OCCUR...IF AT ALL. BUT
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF HIGH 0-6KM SHEAR /OVER 35KT/ AND GOOD LOW
LEVEL TURNING IN FORECAST HODOGRAPHS SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR AT
LEAST FEW STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WINDS
AND HAIL ARE MAIN THREATS...BUT WE CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
WEAK TORNADO GIVEN HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...LOW LCL/S AND
PRESENCE OF CLOSED UPPER LOW. SYSTEM ALSO HAS HISTORY OF PRODUCING
A FEW WEAK TORNADOES THUS FAR AS WELL.

GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN AMOUNT OF HEATING...STAYED CLOSE TO MODEL
BLEND FOR HIGHS TODAY /70S TO AROUND 80/ WHICH ALSO MATCHES MIXING
TO 850 MB /10-11C/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH REGION TONIGHT BRINGING MUCH LESS HUMID
AIR BY DAYBREAK AS SKIES CLEAR. LIGHT WINDS WITH LEFTOVER MOISTURE
MAY LEAD TO PATCHY FOG ACROSS INTERIOR.

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND TUE...RESULTING IN
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. NOT MUCH OF AIRMASS CHANGE SO HIGHS ONCE AGAIN
SHOULD TOP OFF IN 70S TO AROUND 80 BUT WITH LOW HUMIDITY. WEAK
GRADIENT SUPPORTS AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ALONG BOTH COASTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAINLY DRY/QUIET AND SEASONABLE WEATHER WED THRU FRI
* POSSIBLY UNSETTLED AND MORE HUMID THIS WEEKEND

WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY...

LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST EARLY THIS PERIOD
HOWEVER THE MEAN MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS FAR ENOUGH EAST TO KEEP
THE DEEP PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE OFFSHORE. THUS MAINLY DRY
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL WED THRU FRI. HOWEVER GIVEN COOL TEMPS ALOFT
COMBINED WITH CYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW CAN/T RULE OUT A LOW RISK OF A
FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS/T-STORMS INLAND.

AS FOR TEMPS...GIVEN THE BELOW NORMAL 500 HEIGHTS EXPECT LATE
JULY/EARLY AUG SUN ANGLE TO PROVIDE MILD DAYS BUT DEW PTS IN THE 50S
WILL YIELD COMFORTABLY COOL NIGHTS.

THIS WEEKEND...

NORTHEAST TROUGH RETROGRADES TO THE MS VLY THIS WEEKEND. THIS OPENS
THE DOOR FOR TROPICAL MOISTURE AND THE OFFSHORE FRONT TO BACK INTO
NEW ENGLAND...ESPECIALLY EASTERN MA AND RI. THIS WILL INCREASE THE
RISK FOR SHOWERS AND T-STORMS ALONG WITH MORE HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS TODAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE TONIGHT AND
MONDAY.

SCATTERED IFR IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...OTHERWISE VFR DEVELOPING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MA AND RI.

SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOW REDEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR AFTER
18Z. EXPECT MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN ANY TSTMS. BEST CHANCE FOR TSTMS
WILL BE IN AREAS ALONG/WEST/NORTH OF I-495. THERE WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE STORMS IN THIS AREA TO PRODUCE STRONG OR
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR AFTER 00Z TUE...ALTHOUGH PATCHY
MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN FOG. VFR TUE WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR CIGS/VSBYS...FAIRLY CONFIDENT
ON IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER 15Z. TS SHOULD REMAIN W OF AIRPORT
18Z-22Z.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LIFR CIGS/VSBYS...FAIRLY
CONFIDENT IN IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER 13Z. TS MOST LIKELY 18Z-
22Z.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE THRU FRI
THEN LOWER CONFIDENCE INTO THIS WEEKEND.

VFR EXPECT A LOW RISK FOR PATCHY IFR IN EARLY MORNING FOG EACH DAY.
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSTMS MAINLY WEST OF
MHT AND ORH. BY SAT CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR COMING ONSHORE INTO EASTERN
MA AND RI ALONG WITH THREAT OF SHOWERS. MARGINAL VFR-MVFR LIKELY
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE. MAIN CONCERN IS FOR ROUGH SEAS ON
S COASTAL WATERS WHERE SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED INTO TUE.

S/SW FLOW PREVAILS TODAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO BUILDING SEAS ON S
COASTAL WATERS...REACHING AS HIGH AS 5 OR 6 FT OFFSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALSO MAINTAIN PATCHY DENSE FOG THIS MORNING
ON S COASTAL WATERS.

SHOWERS/STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS WATERS THIS MORNING FROM LONG
ISLAND. SO FAR THESE STORMS HAVE PRODUCED FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
MAY PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS TO 35KT. POSSIBILITY OF A FEW MORE
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ON E MA WATERS.

COLD FRONT APPROACHES WATERS TONIGHT BUT EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF
PATCHY DENSE FOG...AT LEAST EARLY TONIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD TUE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES. SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDE OFFSHORE.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS WED THRU FRI THEN SE WINDS POSSIBLY
INCREASING SAT PENDING STRENGTH AND TRACK OF FRONTAL WAVE MOVING NE
FROM THE MID ATLC. FAIR VSBY WED THRU FRI THEN POSSIBLY LOWERING SAT
IN SHOWERS AND FOG.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...BELK/NOCERA
MARINE...BELK/NOCERA



000
FXUS61 KBOX 281835
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
235 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RATHER STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BY JULY STANDARDS WILL MOVE
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING WITH ITS ATTENDING COLD
FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT AND THEN OFFSHORE
TUE. MAINLY DRY AND LESS HUMID WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS WEEKEND THE FRONT OFFSHORE MAY BUILD BACK
INTO NEW ENGLAND ALONG WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS WILL
RESULT IN THE RISK OF SHOWERS AND MORE HUMID WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

*** FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON ***

1135 AM UPDATE...
JUST MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. SUNSHINE HAS
BROKEN THROUGH THE CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MA. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE THREAT OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

ONCE THIS INITIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS LIFTS N BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS.

MODELS INSISTENT THAT DRY SLOT WILL WORK ITS WAY UP COAST INTO SE
NEW ENGLAND...AND DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD RESIDE ACROSS INTERIOR AS
SEEN IN K-INDEX FIELDS. INSTABILITY IS IN QUESTION AS WE ARE NOT
CONFIDENT ON HOW MUCH CLEARING WILL OCCUR...IF AT ALL. BUT
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF HIGH 0-6KM SHEAR /OVER 35KT/ AND GOOD LOW
LEVEL TURNING IN FORECAST HODOGRAPHS SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR AT
LEAST FEW STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WINDS
AND HAIL ARE MAIN THREATS...BUT WE CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
WEAK TORNADO GIVEN HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...LOW LCL/S AND
PRESENCE OF CLOSED UPPER LOW. SYSTEM ALSO HAS HISTORY OF PRODUCING
A FEW WEAK TORNADOES THUS FAR AS WELL.

GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN AMOUNT OF HEATING...STAYED CLOSE TO MODEL
BLEND FOR HIGHS TODAY /70S TO AROUND 80/ WHICH ALSO MATCHES MIXING
TO 850 MB /10-11C/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH REGION TONIGHT BRINGING MUCH LESS HUMID
AIR BY DAYBREAK AS SKIES CLEAR. LIGHT WINDS WITH LEFTOVER MOISTURE
MAY LEAD TO PATCHY FOG ACROSS INTERIOR.

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND TUE...RESULTING IN
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. NOT MUCH OF AIRMASS CHANGE SO HIGHS ONCE AGAIN
SHOULD TOP OFF IN 70S TO AROUND 80 BUT WITH LOW HUMIDITY. WEAK
GRADIENT SUPPORTS AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ALONG BOTH COASTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAINLY DRY/QUIET AND SEASONABLE WEATHER WED THRU FRI
* POSSIBLY UNSETTLED AND MORE HUMID THIS WEEKEND

WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY...

LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST EARLY THIS PERIOD
HOWEVER THE MEAN MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS FAR ENOUGH EAST TO KEEP
THE DEEP PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE OFFSHORE. THUS MAINLY DRY
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL WED THRU FRI. HOWEVER GIVEN COOL TEMPS ALOFT
COMBINED WITH CYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW CAN/T RULE OUT A LOW RISK OF A
FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS/T-STORMS INLAND.

AS FOR TEMPS...GIVEN THE BELOW NORMAL 500 HEIGHTS EXPECT LATE
JULY/EARLY AUG SUN ANGLE TO PROVIDE MILD DAYS BUT DEW PTS IN THE 50S
WILL YIELD COMFORTABLY COOL NIGHTS.

THIS WEEKEND...

NORTHEAST TROUGH RETROGRADES TO THE MS VLY THIS WEEKEND. THIS OPENS
THE DOOR FOR TROPICAL MOISTURE AND THE OFFSHORE FRONT TO BACK INTO
NEW ENGLAND...ESPECIALLY EASTERN MA AND RI. THIS WILL INCREASE THE
RISK FOR SHOWERS AND T-STORMS ALONG WITH MORE HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS TODAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE TONIGHT AND
MONDAY.

SCATTERED IFR IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...OTHERWISE VFR DEVELOPING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MA AND RI.

SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOW REDEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR AFTER
18Z. EXPECT MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN ANY TSTMS. BEST CHANCE FOR TSTMS
WILL BE IN AREAS ALONG/WEST/NORTH OF I-495. THERE WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE STORMS IN THIS AREA TO PRODUCE STRONG OR
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR AFTER 00Z TUE...ALTHOUGH PATCHY
MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN FOG. VFR TUE WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR CIGS/VSBYS...FAIRLY CONFIDENT
ON IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER 15Z. TS SHOULD REMAIN W OF AIRPORT
18Z-22Z.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LIFR CIGS/VSBYS...FAIRLY
CONFIDENT IN IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER 13Z. TS MOST LIKELY 18Z-
22Z.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE THRU FRI
THEN LOWER CONFIDENCE INTO THIS WEEKEND.

VFR EXPECT A LOW RISK FOR PATCHY IFR IN EARLY MORNING FOG EACH DAY.
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSTMS MAINLY WEST OF
MHT AND ORH. BY SAT CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR COMING ONSHORE INTO EASTERN
MA AND RI ALONG WITH THREAT OF SHOWERS. MARGINAL VFR-MVFR LIKELY
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE. MAIN CONCERN IS FOR ROUGH SEAS ON
S COASTAL WATERS WHERE SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED INTO TUE.

S/SW FLOW PREVAILS TODAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO BUILDING SEAS ON S
COASTAL WATERS...REACHING AS HIGH AS 5 OR 6 FT OFFSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALSO MAINTAIN PATCHY DENSE FOG THIS MORNING
ON S COASTAL WATERS.

SHOWERS/STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS WATERS THIS MORNING FROM LONG
ISLAND. SO FAR THESE STORMS HAVE PRODUCED FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
MAY PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS TO 35KT. POSSIBILITY OF A FEW MORE
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ON E MA WATERS.

COLD FRONT APPROACHES WATERS TONIGHT BUT EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF
PATCHY DENSE FOG...AT LEAST EARLY TONIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD TUE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES. SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDE OFFSHORE.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS WED THRU FRI THEN SE WINDS POSSIBLY
INCREASING SAT PENDING STRENGTH AND TRACK OF FRONTAL WAVE MOVING NE
FROM THE MID ATLC. FAIR VSBY WED THRU FRI THEN POSSIBLY LOWERING SAT
IN SHOWERS AND FOG.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...BELK/NOCERA
MARINE...BELK/NOCERA



000
FXUS61 KBOX 281835
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
235 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RATHER STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BY JULY STANDARDS WILL MOVE
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING WITH ITS ATTENDING COLD
FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT AND THEN OFFSHORE
TUE. MAINLY DRY AND LESS HUMID WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS WEEKEND THE FRONT OFFSHORE MAY BUILD BACK
INTO NEW ENGLAND ALONG WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS WILL
RESULT IN THE RISK OF SHOWERS AND MORE HUMID WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

*** FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON ***

1135 AM UPDATE...
JUST MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. SUNSHINE HAS
BROKEN THROUGH THE CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MA. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE THREAT OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

ONCE THIS INITIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS LIFTS N BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS.

MODELS INSISTENT THAT DRY SLOT WILL WORK ITS WAY UP COAST INTO SE
NEW ENGLAND...AND DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD RESIDE ACROSS INTERIOR AS
SEEN IN K-INDEX FIELDS. INSTABILITY IS IN QUESTION AS WE ARE NOT
CONFIDENT ON HOW MUCH CLEARING WILL OCCUR...IF AT ALL. BUT
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF HIGH 0-6KM SHEAR /OVER 35KT/ AND GOOD LOW
LEVEL TURNING IN FORECAST HODOGRAPHS SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR AT
LEAST FEW STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WINDS
AND HAIL ARE MAIN THREATS...BUT WE CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
WEAK TORNADO GIVEN HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...LOW LCL/S AND
PRESENCE OF CLOSED UPPER LOW. SYSTEM ALSO HAS HISTORY OF PRODUCING
A FEW WEAK TORNADOES THUS FAR AS WELL.

GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN AMOUNT OF HEATING...STAYED CLOSE TO MODEL
BLEND FOR HIGHS TODAY /70S TO AROUND 80/ WHICH ALSO MATCHES MIXING
TO 850 MB /10-11C/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH REGION TONIGHT BRINGING MUCH LESS HUMID
AIR BY DAYBREAK AS SKIES CLEAR. LIGHT WINDS WITH LEFTOVER MOISTURE
MAY LEAD TO PATCHY FOG ACROSS INTERIOR.

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND TUE...RESULTING IN
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. NOT MUCH OF AIRMASS CHANGE SO HIGHS ONCE AGAIN
SHOULD TOP OFF IN 70S TO AROUND 80 BUT WITH LOW HUMIDITY. WEAK
GRADIENT SUPPORTS AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ALONG BOTH COASTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAINLY DRY/QUIET AND SEASONABLE WEATHER WED THRU FRI
* POSSIBLY UNSETTLED AND MORE HUMID THIS WEEKEND

WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY...

LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST EARLY THIS PERIOD
HOWEVER THE MEAN MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS FAR ENOUGH EAST TO KEEP
THE DEEP PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE OFFSHORE. THUS MAINLY DRY
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL WED THRU FRI. HOWEVER GIVEN COOL TEMPS ALOFT
COMBINED WITH CYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW CAN/T RULE OUT A LOW RISK OF A
FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS/T-STORMS INLAND.

AS FOR TEMPS...GIVEN THE BELOW NORMAL 500 HEIGHTS EXPECT LATE
JULY/EARLY AUG SUN ANGLE TO PROVIDE MILD DAYS BUT DEW PTS IN THE 50S
WILL YIELD COMFORTABLY COOL NIGHTS.

THIS WEEKEND...

NORTHEAST TROUGH RETROGRADES TO THE MS VLY THIS WEEKEND. THIS OPENS
THE DOOR FOR TROPICAL MOISTURE AND THE OFFSHORE FRONT TO BACK INTO
NEW ENGLAND...ESPECIALLY EASTERN MA AND RI. THIS WILL INCREASE THE
RISK FOR SHOWERS AND T-STORMS ALONG WITH MORE HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS TODAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE TONIGHT AND
MONDAY.

SCATTERED IFR IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...OTHERWISE VFR DEVELOPING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MA AND RI.

SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOW REDEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR AFTER
18Z. EXPECT MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN ANY TSTMS. BEST CHANCE FOR TSTMS
WILL BE IN AREAS ALONG/WEST/NORTH OF I-495. THERE WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE STORMS IN THIS AREA TO PRODUCE STRONG OR
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR AFTER 00Z TUE...ALTHOUGH PATCHY
MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN FOG. VFR TUE WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR CIGS/VSBYS...FAIRLY CONFIDENT
ON IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER 15Z. TS SHOULD REMAIN W OF AIRPORT
18Z-22Z.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LIFR CIGS/VSBYS...FAIRLY
CONFIDENT IN IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER 13Z. TS MOST LIKELY 18Z-
22Z.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE THRU FRI
THEN LOWER CONFIDENCE INTO THIS WEEKEND.

VFR EXPECT A LOW RISK FOR PATCHY IFR IN EARLY MORNING FOG EACH DAY.
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSTMS MAINLY WEST OF
MHT AND ORH. BY SAT CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR COMING ONSHORE INTO EASTERN
MA AND RI ALONG WITH THREAT OF SHOWERS. MARGINAL VFR-MVFR LIKELY
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE. MAIN CONCERN IS FOR ROUGH SEAS ON
S COASTAL WATERS WHERE SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED INTO TUE.

S/SW FLOW PREVAILS TODAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO BUILDING SEAS ON S
COASTAL WATERS...REACHING AS HIGH AS 5 OR 6 FT OFFSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALSO MAINTAIN PATCHY DENSE FOG THIS MORNING
ON S COASTAL WATERS.

SHOWERS/STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS WATERS THIS MORNING FROM LONG
ISLAND. SO FAR THESE STORMS HAVE PRODUCED FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
MAY PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS TO 35KT. POSSIBILITY OF A FEW MORE
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ON E MA WATERS.

COLD FRONT APPROACHES WATERS TONIGHT BUT EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF
PATCHY DENSE FOG...AT LEAST EARLY TONIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD TUE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES. SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDE OFFSHORE.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS WED THRU FRI THEN SE WINDS POSSIBLY
INCREASING SAT PENDING STRENGTH AND TRACK OF FRONTAL WAVE MOVING NE
FROM THE MID ATLC. FAIR VSBY WED THRU FRI THEN POSSIBLY LOWERING SAT
IN SHOWERS AND FOG.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...BELK/NOCERA
MARINE...BELK/NOCERA



000
FXUS61 KBOX 281835
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
235 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RATHER STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BY JULY STANDARDS WILL MOVE
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING WITH ITS ATTENDING COLD
FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT AND THEN OFFSHORE
TUE. MAINLY DRY AND LESS HUMID WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS WEEKEND THE FRONT OFFSHORE MAY BUILD BACK
INTO NEW ENGLAND ALONG WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS WILL
RESULT IN THE RISK OF SHOWERS AND MORE HUMID WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

*** FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON ***

1135 AM UPDATE...
JUST MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. SUNSHINE HAS
BROKEN THROUGH THE CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MA. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE THREAT OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

ONCE THIS INITIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS LIFTS N BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS.

MODELS INSISTENT THAT DRY SLOT WILL WORK ITS WAY UP COAST INTO SE
NEW ENGLAND...AND DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD RESIDE ACROSS INTERIOR AS
SEEN IN K-INDEX FIELDS. INSTABILITY IS IN QUESTION AS WE ARE NOT
CONFIDENT ON HOW MUCH CLEARING WILL OCCUR...IF AT ALL. BUT
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF HIGH 0-6KM SHEAR /OVER 35KT/ AND GOOD LOW
LEVEL TURNING IN FORECAST HODOGRAPHS SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR AT
LEAST FEW STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WINDS
AND HAIL ARE MAIN THREATS...BUT WE CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
WEAK TORNADO GIVEN HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...LOW LCL/S AND
PRESENCE OF CLOSED UPPER LOW. SYSTEM ALSO HAS HISTORY OF PRODUCING
A FEW WEAK TORNADOES THUS FAR AS WELL.

GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN AMOUNT OF HEATING...STAYED CLOSE TO MODEL
BLEND FOR HIGHS TODAY /70S TO AROUND 80/ WHICH ALSO MATCHES MIXING
TO 850 MB /10-11C/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH REGION TONIGHT BRINGING MUCH LESS HUMID
AIR BY DAYBREAK AS SKIES CLEAR. LIGHT WINDS WITH LEFTOVER MOISTURE
MAY LEAD TO PATCHY FOG ACROSS INTERIOR.

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND TUE...RESULTING IN
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. NOT MUCH OF AIRMASS CHANGE SO HIGHS ONCE AGAIN
SHOULD TOP OFF IN 70S TO AROUND 80 BUT WITH LOW HUMIDITY. WEAK
GRADIENT SUPPORTS AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ALONG BOTH COASTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAINLY DRY/QUIET AND SEASONABLE WEATHER WED THRU FRI
* POSSIBLY UNSETTLED AND MORE HUMID THIS WEEKEND

WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY...

LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST EARLY THIS PERIOD
HOWEVER THE MEAN MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS FAR ENOUGH EAST TO KEEP
THE DEEP PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE OFFSHORE. THUS MAINLY DRY
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL WED THRU FRI. HOWEVER GIVEN COOL TEMPS ALOFT
COMBINED WITH CYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW CAN/T RULE OUT A LOW RISK OF A
FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS/T-STORMS INLAND.

AS FOR TEMPS...GIVEN THE BELOW NORMAL 500 HEIGHTS EXPECT LATE
JULY/EARLY AUG SUN ANGLE TO PROVIDE MILD DAYS BUT DEW PTS IN THE 50S
WILL YIELD COMFORTABLY COOL NIGHTS.

THIS WEEKEND...

NORTHEAST TROUGH RETROGRADES TO THE MS VLY THIS WEEKEND. THIS OPENS
THE DOOR FOR TROPICAL MOISTURE AND THE OFFSHORE FRONT TO BACK INTO
NEW ENGLAND...ESPECIALLY EASTERN MA AND RI. THIS WILL INCREASE THE
RISK FOR SHOWERS AND T-STORMS ALONG WITH MORE HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS TODAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE TONIGHT AND
MONDAY.

SCATTERED IFR IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...OTHERWISE VFR DEVELOPING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MA AND RI.

SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOW REDEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR AFTER
18Z. EXPECT MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN ANY TSTMS. BEST CHANCE FOR TSTMS
WILL BE IN AREAS ALONG/WEST/NORTH OF I-495. THERE WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE STORMS IN THIS AREA TO PRODUCE STRONG OR
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR AFTER 00Z TUE...ALTHOUGH PATCHY
MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN FOG. VFR TUE WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR CIGS/VSBYS...FAIRLY CONFIDENT
ON IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER 15Z. TS SHOULD REMAIN W OF AIRPORT
18Z-22Z.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LIFR CIGS/VSBYS...FAIRLY
CONFIDENT IN IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER 13Z. TS MOST LIKELY 18Z-
22Z.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE THRU FRI
THEN LOWER CONFIDENCE INTO THIS WEEKEND.

VFR EXPECT A LOW RISK FOR PATCHY IFR IN EARLY MORNING FOG EACH DAY.
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSTMS MAINLY WEST OF
MHT AND ORH. BY SAT CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR COMING ONSHORE INTO EASTERN
MA AND RI ALONG WITH THREAT OF SHOWERS. MARGINAL VFR-MVFR LIKELY
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE. MAIN CONCERN IS FOR ROUGH SEAS ON
S COASTAL WATERS WHERE SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED INTO TUE.

S/SW FLOW PREVAILS TODAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO BUILDING SEAS ON S
COASTAL WATERS...REACHING AS HIGH AS 5 OR 6 FT OFFSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALSO MAINTAIN PATCHY DENSE FOG THIS MORNING
ON S COASTAL WATERS.

SHOWERS/STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS WATERS THIS MORNING FROM LONG
ISLAND. SO FAR THESE STORMS HAVE PRODUCED FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
MAY PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS TO 35KT. POSSIBILITY OF A FEW MORE
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ON E MA WATERS.

COLD FRONT APPROACHES WATERS TONIGHT BUT EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF
PATCHY DENSE FOG...AT LEAST EARLY TONIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD TUE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES. SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDE OFFSHORE.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS WED THRU FRI THEN SE WINDS POSSIBLY
INCREASING SAT PENDING STRENGTH AND TRACK OF FRONTAL WAVE MOVING NE
FROM THE MID ATLC. FAIR VSBY WED THRU FRI THEN POSSIBLY LOWERING SAT
IN SHOWERS AND FOG.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...BELK/NOCERA
MARINE...BELK/NOCERA



000
FXUS61 KALY 281816
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
216 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK...WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST TO NEAR NORTHERN MAINE BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL BRING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA
TODAY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY FAIR AND
COOL WEATHER ON TUESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY FAIR AND COOL
WEATHER IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY CAUSE A FEW
AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
...INCLUDED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH...VALID UNTIL 8 PM...

UPPER IMPULSE PIVOTING EAST NOW EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND TWO
DISTINCT AREAS OF VORTICITY SEEN IN RADAR IMAGERY...ONE BETWEEN
RME/GTB AND THE OTHER NEAR BGM. CONVECTION DEVELOPING AND
INCREASING IN COVERAGE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE DEEPER
CLOUDINESS IN CENTRAL/NORTHERN NY. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS IN
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND HAS ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO WARM A LITTLE MORE THAN CURRENT FORECAST...SO SOME
TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ADJUSTING RAIN
CHANCES BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND INCLUDING WORDING FOR GUSTY
WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN.

UPPER IMPULSES LIKE THIS ONE CAN ENHANCE CHANCES FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING...SO WILL SUGGEST AREAS OF
URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IN SOME AREAS...WITH ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT NO FLASH FLOOD WATCH
AT THIS TIME. ANTECEDENT RAINFALL HEAVIEST IN WESTERN MA/VT AND
NORTHERN TACONICS OF NY...WHERE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
LESS THAN IN THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY...WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND
EASTERN CATSKILLS.

INTERESTING 12Z SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION WITH OBVIOUS COOLING
ALOFT BETWEEN KBUF AND KALB...SO AGAIN...CHANCES FOR SEVERE ARE
PRESENT BUT SHOULD BE ISOLATED...ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE UPPER COMMA HEAD AND VORTICITY CENTERS SEEN ON
RADAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM`S COLD FRONT...THE THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END. WILL HAVE LINGERING THREAT OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE LOW IS DRAWN NORTHWARD AS THE
SHORT WAVE BECOMES ABSORBED BY THE LARGE CUT OFF LOW CENTERED NEAR
HUDSON`S BAY CANADA. .

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM COOLER AIR WILL BE DRAWN INTO THE
REGION ON NORTHWEST FLOW. INTO MID WEEK THE REGION WILL BE UNDER A
LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH PIECES OF ENERGY SPINNING ABOUT THE LARGE
CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN CANADA...WHICH WILL BE HARD TO TIME. WHILE
AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT
THE REGION SHOULD BE BETWEEN SHORT WAVES TUESDAY SO EXPECTING A DRY
DAY. HAVE POPS IN FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY MAINLY TO THE WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY BY 5 TO 10
DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

A LARGE CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN SITUATED JUST TO OUR
NORTHWEST OVER SOUTHERN CANADA TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE WEAKENING...IT WILL REMAIN
CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA TO ALLOW FOR CYCLONIC FLOW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ESP DURING THE DIURNALLY
FAVORED AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO
NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S FOR VALLEY
AREAS...AND MINS GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY START TO LIFT OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST...ANOTHER IMPULSE DIVING OUT OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST FOR THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL STRENGTHEN THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE CONUS...WHILE A STRONG RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE WESTERN US. THE RESULT WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. AGAIN...THE HIGHEST
COVERAGE/BEST CHANCE WILL BE DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING.  TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...WITH HIGHS RIGHT
AROUND 80 AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CHANGEABLE FLYING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS OVER
THE NEXT 6-10 HOURS THANKS TO A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA.

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK...THE
CATSKILLS...AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. THESE STORMS ARE MOVING
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST AT 20-30 MPH. WE HAVE INCLUDED THUNDER AT
ALL THE TERMINALS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
MVFR WITH ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSHOWERS THAT HIT A TERMINAL SITE.

A COLD FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BETWEEN 00Z AND 02Z THIS
EVENING. BEHIND THIS FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL TRANSPORT COOLER
AND LESS HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL END THE THREAT FOR
PRECIP...WITH SURFACE WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS FOR THIS EVENING. SOME LINGERING CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT...BUT FLYING CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE VFR FOR ALL SITES. BY LATE TONIGHT...CLOUDS SHOULD
SCATTER OUT AND WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH SO LOCALIZED FOG IS
A THREAT AT THE TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS A
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK STATE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD.
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST TONIGHT ALLOWING COOLER
AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE
SURFACE AS WE HEAD THROUGH MID WEEK...HOWEVER ALOFT DISTURBANCES
WILL PASS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS A
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK STATE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH SOME STORMS AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS
VERY MOIST WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. HAVE CONTINUED WITH
ENHANCED WORDING IN FORECAST FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTAL ARE EXPECTED MAINLY NORTH OF I-90 WITH
AROUND AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
MAY RESULT IN SOME FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
AREAS WHICH HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED A ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE THE MOST VULNERABLE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/NAS
NEAR TERM...SND/NAS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA







000
FXUS61 KALY 281816
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
216 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK...WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST TO NEAR NORTHERN MAINE BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL BRING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA
TODAY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY FAIR AND
COOL WEATHER ON TUESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY FAIR AND COOL
WEATHER IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY CAUSE A FEW
AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
...INCLUDED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH...VALID UNTIL 8 PM...

UPPER IMPULSE PIVOTING EAST NOW EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND TWO
DISTINCT AREAS OF VORTICITY SEEN IN RADAR IMAGERY...ONE BETWEEN
RME/GTB AND THE OTHER NEAR BGM. CONVECTION DEVELOPING AND
INCREASING IN COVERAGE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE DEEPER
CLOUDINESS IN CENTRAL/NORTHERN NY. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS IN
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND HAS ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO WARM A LITTLE MORE THAN CURRENT FORECAST...SO SOME
TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ADJUSTING RAIN
CHANCES BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND INCLUDING WORDING FOR GUSTY
WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN.

UPPER IMPULSES LIKE THIS ONE CAN ENHANCE CHANCES FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING...SO WILL SUGGEST AREAS OF
URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IN SOME AREAS...WITH ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT NO FLASH FLOOD WATCH
AT THIS TIME. ANTECEDENT RAINFALL HEAVIEST IN WESTERN MA/VT AND
NORTHERN TACONICS OF NY...WHERE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
LESS THAN IN THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY...WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND
EASTERN CATSKILLS.

INTERESTING 12Z SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION WITH OBVIOUS COOLING
ALOFT BETWEEN KBUF AND KALB...SO AGAIN...CHANCES FOR SEVERE ARE
PRESENT BUT SHOULD BE ISOLATED...ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE UPPER COMMA HEAD AND VORTICITY CENTERS SEEN ON
RADAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM`S COLD FRONT...THE THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END. WILL HAVE LINGERING THREAT OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE LOW IS DRAWN NORTHWARD AS THE
SHORT WAVE BECOMES ABSORBED BY THE LARGE CUT OFF LOW CENTERED NEAR
HUDSON`S BAY CANADA. .

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM COOLER AIR WILL BE DRAWN INTO THE
REGION ON NORTHWEST FLOW. INTO MID WEEK THE REGION WILL BE UNDER A
LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH PIECES OF ENERGY SPINNING ABOUT THE LARGE
CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN CANADA...WHICH WILL BE HARD TO TIME. WHILE
AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT
THE REGION SHOULD BE BETWEEN SHORT WAVES TUESDAY SO EXPECTING A DRY
DAY. HAVE POPS IN FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY MAINLY TO THE WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY BY 5 TO 10
DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

A LARGE CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN SITUATED JUST TO OUR
NORTHWEST OVER SOUTHERN CANADA TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE WEAKENING...IT WILL REMAIN
CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA TO ALLOW FOR CYCLONIC FLOW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ESP DURING THE DIURNALLY
FAVORED AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO
NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S FOR VALLEY
AREAS...AND MINS GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY START TO LIFT OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST...ANOTHER IMPULSE DIVING OUT OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST FOR THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL STRENGTHEN THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE CONUS...WHILE A STRONG RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE WESTERN US. THE RESULT WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. AGAIN...THE HIGHEST
COVERAGE/BEST CHANCE WILL BE DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING.  TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...WITH HIGHS RIGHT
AROUND 80 AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CHANGEABLE FLYING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS OVER
THE NEXT 6-10 HOURS THANKS TO A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA.

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK...THE
CATSKILLS...AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. THESE STORMS ARE MOVING
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST AT 20-30 MPH. WE HAVE INCLUDED THUNDER AT
ALL THE TERMINALS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
MVFR WITH ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSHOWERS THAT HIT A TERMINAL SITE.

A COLD FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BETWEEN 00Z AND 02Z THIS
EVENING. BEHIND THIS FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL TRANSPORT COOLER
AND LESS HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL END THE THREAT FOR
PRECIP...WITH SURFACE WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS FOR THIS EVENING. SOME LINGERING CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT...BUT FLYING CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE VFR FOR ALL SITES. BY LATE TONIGHT...CLOUDS SHOULD
SCATTER OUT AND WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH SO LOCALIZED FOG IS
A THREAT AT THE TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS A
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK STATE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD.
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST TONIGHT ALLOWING COOLER
AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE
SURFACE AS WE HEAD THROUGH MID WEEK...HOWEVER ALOFT DISTURBANCES
WILL PASS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS A
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK STATE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH SOME STORMS AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS
VERY MOIST WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. HAVE CONTINUED WITH
ENHANCED WORDING IN FORECAST FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTAL ARE EXPECTED MAINLY NORTH OF I-90 WITH
AROUND AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
MAY RESULT IN SOME FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
AREAS WHICH HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED A ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE THE MOST VULNERABLE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/NAS
NEAR TERM...SND/NAS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA








000
FXUS61 KALY 281757
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
157 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK...WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST TO NEAR NORTHERN MAINE BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL BRING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA
TODAY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY FAIR AND
COOL WEATHER ON TUESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY FAIR AND COOL
WEATHER IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY CAUSE A FEW
AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER IMPULSE PIVOTING EAST NOW EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND TWO
DISTINCT AREAS OF VORTICITY SEEN IN RADAR IMAGERY...ONE BETWEEN
RME/GTB AND THE OTHER NEAR BGM. CONVECTION DEVELOPING AND
INCREASING IN COVERAGE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE DEEPER
CLOUDINESS IN CENTRAL/NORTHERN NY. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS IN
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND HAS ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO WARM A LITTLE MORE THAN CURRENT FORECAST...SO SOME
TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ADJUSTING RAIN
CHANCES BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND INCLUDING WORDING FOR GUSTY
WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN.

UPPER IMPULSES LIKE THIS ONE CAN ENHANCE CHANCES FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING...SO WILL SUGGEST AREAS OF
URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IN SOME AREAS...WITH ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT NO FLASH FLOOD WATCH
AT THIS TIME. ANTECEDENT RAINFALL HEAVIEST IN WESTERN MA/VT AND
NORTHERN TACONICS OF NY...WHERE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
LESS THAN IN THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY...WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND
EASTERN CATSKILLS.

INTERESTING 12Z SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION WITH OBVIOUS COOLING
ALOFT BETWEEN KBUF AND KALB...SO AGAIN...CHANCES FOR SEVERE ARE
PRESENT BUT SHOULD BE ISOLATED...ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE UPPER COMMA HEAD AND VORTICITY CENTERS SEEN ON
RADAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM`S COLD FRONT...THE THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END. WILL HAVE LINGERING THREAT OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE LOW IS DRAWN NORTHWARD AS THE
SHORT WAVE BECOMES ABSORBED BY THE LARGE CUT OFF LOW CENTERED NEAR
HUDSON`S BAY CANADA. .

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM COOLER AIR WILL BE DRAWN INTO THE
REGION ON NORTHWEST FLOW. INTO MID WEEK THE REGION WILL BE UNDER A
LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH PIECES OF ENERGY SPINNING ABOUT THE LARGE
CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN CANADA...WHICH WILL BE HARD TO TIME. WHILE
AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT
THE REGION SHOULD BE BETWEEN SHORT WAVES TUESDAY SO EXPECTING A DRY
DAY. HAVE POPS IN FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY MAINLY TO THE WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY BY 5 TO 10
DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

A LARGE CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN SITUATED JUST TO OUR
NORTHWEST OVER SOUTHERN CANADA TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE WEAKENING...IT WILL REMAIN
CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA TO ALLOW FOR CYCLONIC FLOW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ESP DURING THE DIURNALLY
FAVORED AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO
NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S FOR VALLEY
AREAS...AND MINS GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY START TO LIFT OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST...ANOTHER IMPULSE DIVING OUT OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST FOR THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL STRENGTHEN THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE CONUS...WHILE A STRONG RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE WESTERN US. THE RESULT WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. AGAIN...THE HIGHEST
COVERAGE/BEST CHANCE WILL BE DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING.  TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...WITH HIGHS RIGHT
AROUND 80 AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CHANGEABLE FLYING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS OVER
THE NEXT 6-10 HOURS THANKS TO A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA.

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK...THE
CATSKILLS...AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. THESE STORMS ARE MOVING
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST AT 20-30 MPH. WE HAVE INCLUDED THUNDER AT
ALL THE TERMINALS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
MVFR WITH ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSHOWERS THAT HIT A TERMINAL SITE.

A COLD FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BETWEEN 00Z AND 02Z THIS
EVENING. BEHIND THIS FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL TRANSPORT COOLER
AND LESS HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL END THE THREAT FOR
PRECIP...WITH SURFACE WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS FOR THIS EVENING. SOME LINGERING CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT...BUT FLYING CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE VFR FOR ALL SITES. BY LATE TONIGHT...CLOUDS SHOULD
SCATTER OUT AND WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH SO LOCALIZED FOG IS
A THREAT AT THE TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS A
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK STATE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD.
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST TONIGHT ALLOWING COOLER
AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE
SURFACE AS WE HEAD THROUGH MID WEEK...HOWEVER ALOFT DISTURBANCES
WILL PASS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS A
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK STATE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH SOME STORMS AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS
VERY MOIST WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. HAVE CONTINUED WITH
ENHANCED WORDING IN FORECAST FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTAL ARE EXPECTED MAINLY NORTH OF I-90 WITH
AROUND AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
MAY RESULT IN SOME FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
AREAS WHICH HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED A ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE THE MOST VULNERABLE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/NAS
NEAR TERM...SND/NAS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA








000
FXUS61 KALY 281757
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
157 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK...WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST TO NEAR NORTHERN MAINE BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL BRING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA
TODAY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY FAIR AND
COOL WEATHER ON TUESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY FAIR AND COOL
WEATHER IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY CAUSE A FEW
AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER IMPULSE PIVOTING EAST NOW EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND TWO
DISTINCT AREAS OF VORTICITY SEEN IN RADAR IMAGERY...ONE BETWEEN
RME/GTB AND THE OTHER NEAR BGM. CONVECTION DEVELOPING AND
INCREASING IN COVERAGE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE DEEPER
CLOUDINESS IN CENTRAL/NORTHERN NY. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS IN
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND HAS ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO WARM A LITTLE MORE THAN CURRENT FORECAST...SO SOME
TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ADJUSTING RAIN
CHANCES BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND INCLUDING WORDING FOR GUSTY
WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN.

UPPER IMPULSES LIKE THIS ONE CAN ENHANCE CHANCES FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING...SO WILL SUGGEST AREAS OF
URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IN SOME AREAS...WITH ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT NO FLASH FLOOD WATCH
AT THIS TIME. ANTECEDENT RAINFALL HEAVIEST IN WESTERN MA/VT AND
NORTHERN TACONICS OF NY...WHERE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
LESS THAN IN THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY...WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND
EASTERN CATSKILLS.

INTERESTING 12Z SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION WITH OBVIOUS COOLING
ALOFT BETWEEN KBUF AND KALB...SO AGAIN...CHANCES FOR SEVERE ARE
PRESENT BUT SHOULD BE ISOLATED...ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE UPPER COMMA HEAD AND VORTICITY CENTERS SEEN ON
RADAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM`S COLD FRONT...THE THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END. WILL HAVE LINGERING THREAT OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE LOW IS DRAWN NORTHWARD AS THE
SHORT WAVE BECOMES ABSORBED BY THE LARGE CUT OFF LOW CENTERED NEAR
HUDSON`S BAY CANADA. .

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM COOLER AIR WILL BE DRAWN INTO THE
REGION ON NORTHWEST FLOW. INTO MID WEEK THE REGION WILL BE UNDER A
LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH PIECES OF ENERGY SPINNING ABOUT THE LARGE
CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN CANADA...WHICH WILL BE HARD TO TIME. WHILE
AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT
THE REGION SHOULD BE BETWEEN SHORT WAVES TUESDAY SO EXPECTING A DRY
DAY. HAVE POPS IN FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY MAINLY TO THE WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY BY 5 TO 10
DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

A LARGE CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN SITUATED JUST TO OUR
NORTHWEST OVER SOUTHERN CANADA TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE WEAKENING...IT WILL REMAIN
CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA TO ALLOW FOR CYCLONIC FLOW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ESP DURING THE DIURNALLY
FAVORED AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO
NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S FOR VALLEY
AREAS...AND MINS GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY START TO LIFT OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST...ANOTHER IMPULSE DIVING OUT OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST FOR THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL STRENGTHEN THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE CONUS...WHILE A STRONG RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE WESTERN US. THE RESULT WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. AGAIN...THE HIGHEST
COVERAGE/BEST CHANCE WILL BE DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING.  TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...WITH HIGHS RIGHT
AROUND 80 AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CHANGEABLE FLYING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS OVER
THE NEXT 6-10 HOURS THANKS TO A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA.

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK...THE
CATSKILLS...AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. THESE STORMS ARE MOVING
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST AT 20-30 MPH. WE HAVE INCLUDED THUNDER AT
ALL THE TERMINALS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
MVFR WITH ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSHOWERS THAT HIT A TERMINAL SITE.

A COLD FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BETWEEN 00Z AND 02Z THIS
EVENING. BEHIND THIS FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL TRANSPORT COOLER
AND LESS HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL END THE THREAT FOR
PRECIP...WITH SURFACE WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS FOR THIS EVENING. SOME LINGERING CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT...BUT FLYING CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE VFR FOR ALL SITES. BY LATE TONIGHT...CLOUDS SHOULD
SCATTER OUT AND WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH SO LOCALIZED FOG IS
A THREAT AT THE TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS A
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK STATE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD.
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST TONIGHT ALLOWING COOLER
AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE
SURFACE AS WE HEAD THROUGH MID WEEK...HOWEVER ALOFT DISTURBANCES
WILL PASS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS A
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK STATE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH SOME STORMS AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS
VERY MOIST WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. HAVE CONTINUED WITH
ENHANCED WORDING IN FORECAST FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTAL ARE EXPECTED MAINLY NORTH OF I-90 WITH
AROUND AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
MAY RESULT IN SOME FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
AREAS WHICH HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED A ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE THE MOST VULNERABLE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/NAS
NEAR TERM...SND/NAS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA







000
FXUS61 KOKX 281755
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
155 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK THROUGH NEW ENGLAND THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THE COLD
FRONT PUSHES EAST TONIGHT...SETTLING WELL OFFSHORE THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES AGAIN FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
998 HPA SFC LOW NEAR ALBANY NY AS OF 1 PM. THE COLD FRONT IS NEAR
THE KBDR TO KISP LINE. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE INSTABILITY AND
THE UPPER LOW WERE ROTATING ACROSS NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA.

FORECAST CONTINUES ON TRACK. CAP IS WEAKENING WITH AN ISOLATED
SHOWER NOW NORTH OF KSMQ IN NORTHERN NJ. CAPE IS NARROW WITH LOTS
OF DRY AIR ALOFT. BELIEVE LATEST HRRR HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE
SITUATION. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CHC POPS - HIGHEST NORTH.

WILL LIKELY DROP THE MENTION OF SEVERE IN THE HWO COME 3 PM WITH
LITTLE IF ANY DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND LIFTING LCL`S, MAIN WX STORY
IS THE LATE JULY WINDS WHICH WILL GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH AS WE MIX UP
TO 800-850 HPA.

THERE REMAINS IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP
CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FACING BEACHES DURING THE DAY
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS/TSTMS DIMINISH IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY
THIS EVENING AS POTENT SHORTWAVE PIVOTS NORTHEASTWARD. EVENING
WINDS DIMINISH AS SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR. LOW TEMPS SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE LOWER/MIDDLE 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR TO THE LOWER 60S
NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SOUTH TUES THROUGH MID WEEK WITH A CLOSED
LOW HOVERING JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. WITH MINIMAL PROGRESSIVE
MOVEMENT ALOFT...THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST...BUT THEN
STALL OFFSHORE. IT SHOULD PUSH JUST FAR ENOUGH EAST TO HAVE MINIMAL
IMPACT THROUGH THE COMING WEEK...BUT WILL COME BACK INTO THE PICTURE
FOR THE COMING WEEKEND. AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL MAINTAIN HOLD OF THE REGION
THROUGH THURS. SHORTWAVE ROTATING ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE TROUGH
COULD TRIGGER AN ISO SHOWER/TSTM TUES AFTN OVER FAR NORTH AND
WESTERN EDGES OF THE AREA...BUT WITH A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS MOVING
IN...COULD LIKELY WILL END UP BEING A DRY DAY. THE NEXT MENTION
OF PCPN COMES THURS AFTN WITH A RETURN FLOW SETTING UP OVER THE
REGION...INJECTING IN A SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST AIR MASS. THE CLOSED
LOW ALOFT FINALLY PUSHES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...THOUGH A LONGWAVE
TROUGH STILL WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK. THE PATTERN STILL BRINGS THROUGH MULTIPLE
SHORTWAVES THURS-FRI...EACH BRINGING A SLIGHT CHC IN TRIGGERING AN
ISO SHOWER OR TSTM.

LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG THE STALLED FRONT BY THIS WEEKEND...RIDING
THE FRONT WHILE SLOWLY APPROACHING THE AREA. GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS
BRINGS THE SFC LOW NEAR THE TRI STATE AREA BY SUN MORNING. ENOUGH
FORCING ALOFT ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD
COMBINE WITH THE SFC LOW TO PRODUCE SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS...ESP FOR
LATER SAT THROUGH SUN.

TEMPS REMAIN NEAR STEADY THROUGH THE COMING WEEK...A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC COLD FRONT AND DEEP UPPER TROUGH MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS...POSSIBLY A TSTM...WILL DEVELOP
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN ANY OF THE SHOWERS
IMPACTING ANY GIVEN TERMINAL...SO WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE LATEST
TAFS. WILL INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP FOR SOME SHOWERS AT KSWF...AS THE
BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WILL STAY NORTH OF THE REGION. VFR CONDS
OTHERWISE.

SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 KT.
WINDS DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT WITH 15-23 KT GUSTS THIS EVENING BEFORE
TURNING W-NW AND DIMINISHING FURTHER TO 8-12 KT.

GENERAL WEST FLOW AT 10 KT OR LESS ON TAP FOR TUESDAY.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING MAY NOT BE AS
STRONG AS FORECASTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING MAY NOT BE AS
STRONG AS FORECASTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING MAY NOT BE AS
STRONG AS FORECASTED.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING MAY NOT BE AS
STRONG AS FORECASTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING MAY NOT BE AS
STRONG AS FORECASTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY AFTERNOON-WEDNESDAY...VFR.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM KBDR TO KFRG.
OTHERWISE...VFR.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST LATER IN THE DAY
BEHIND A COLD FRONT. GUSTS COULD BE QUITE STRONG FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING...POSSIBLY JUST
SHY OF GALE FORCE FOR A SHORT TIME.

THEN WINDS DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. WILL EXTEND THE SCA THROUGH TONIGHT
FOR THE OCEAN WATERS...AND UNTIL MIDNIGHT ELSEWHERE.

SEAS ON THE OCEAN ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED INTO TUES MORNING.
AS THE WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO THE NW...SEAS WILL BEGIN TO
SUBSIDE...WITH SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY TUES AFTN. SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS THEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...WITH A POSSIBLE RETURN TO 25 KT GUSTS AND 5 FT SEAS OVER THE
WEEKEND DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PW
NEAR TERM...TONGUE
SHORT TERM...TONGUE/PW
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...GOODMAN
MARINE...TONGUE/PW
HYDROLOGY...TONGUE










000
FXUS61 KOKX 281755
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
155 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK THROUGH NEW ENGLAND THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THE COLD
FRONT PUSHES EAST TONIGHT...SETTLING WELL OFFSHORE THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES AGAIN FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
998 HPA SFC LOW NEAR ALBANY NY AS OF 1 PM. THE COLD FRONT IS NEAR
THE KBDR TO KISP LINE. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE INSTABILITY AND
THE UPPER LOW WERE ROTATING ACROSS NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA.

FORECAST CONTINUES ON TRACK. CAP IS WEAKENING WITH AN ISOLATED
SHOWER NOW NORTH OF KSMQ IN NORTHERN NJ. CAPE IS NARROW WITH LOTS
OF DRY AIR ALOFT. BELIEVE LATEST HRRR HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE
SITUATION. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CHC POPS - HIGHEST NORTH.

WILL LIKELY DROP THE MENTION OF SEVERE IN THE HWO COME 3 PM WITH
LITTLE IF ANY DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND LIFTING LCL`S, MAIN WX STORY
IS THE LATE JULY WINDS WHICH WILL GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH AS WE MIX UP
TO 800-850 HPA.

THERE REMAINS IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP
CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FACING BEACHES DURING THE DAY
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS/TSTMS DIMINISH IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY
THIS EVENING AS POTENT SHORTWAVE PIVOTS NORTHEASTWARD. EVENING
WINDS DIMINISH AS SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR. LOW TEMPS SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE LOWER/MIDDLE 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR TO THE LOWER 60S
NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SOUTH TUES THROUGH MID WEEK WITH A CLOSED
LOW HOVERING JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. WITH MINIMAL PROGRESSIVE
MOVEMENT ALOFT...THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST...BUT THEN
STALL OFFSHORE. IT SHOULD PUSH JUST FAR ENOUGH EAST TO HAVE MINIMAL
IMPACT THROUGH THE COMING WEEK...BUT WILL COME BACK INTO THE PICTURE
FOR THE COMING WEEKEND. AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL MAINTAIN HOLD OF THE REGION
THROUGH THURS. SHORTWAVE ROTATING ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE TROUGH
COULD TRIGGER AN ISO SHOWER/TSTM TUES AFTN OVER FAR NORTH AND
WESTERN EDGES OF THE AREA...BUT WITH A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS MOVING
IN...COULD LIKELY WILL END UP BEING A DRY DAY. THE NEXT MENTION
OF PCPN COMES THURS AFTN WITH A RETURN FLOW SETTING UP OVER THE
REGION...INJECTING IN A SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST AIR MASS. THE CLOSED
LOW ALOFT FINALLY PUSHES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...THOUGH A LONGWAVE
TROUGH STILL WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK. THE PATTERN STILL BRINGS THROUGH MULTIPLE
SHORTWAVES THURS-FRI...EACH BRINGING A SLIGHT CHC IN TRIGGERING AN
ISO SHOWER OR TSTM.

LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG THE STALLED FRONT BY THIS WEEKEND...RIDING
THE FRONT WHILE SLOWLY APPROACHING THE AREA. GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS
BRINGS THE SFC LOW NEAR THE TRI STATE AREA BY SUN MORNING. ENOUGH
FORCING ALOFT ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD
COMBINE WITH THE SFC LOW TO PRODUCE SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS...ESP FOR
LATER SAT THROUGH SUN.

TEMPS REMAIN NEAR STEADY THROUGH THE COMING WEEK...A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC COLD FRONT AND DEEP UPPER TROUGH MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS...POSSIBLY A TSTM...WILL DEVELOP
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN ANY OF THE SHOWERS
IMPACTING ANY GIVEN TERMINAL...SO WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE LATEST
TAFS. WILL INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP FOR SOME SHOWERS AT KSWF...AS THE
BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WILL STAY NORTH OF THE REGION. VFR CONDS
OTHERWISE.

SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 KT.
WINDS DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT WITH 15-23 KT GUSTS THIS EVENING BEFORE
TURNING W-NW AND DIMINISHING FURTHER TO 8-12 KT.

GENERAL WEST FLOW AT 10 KT OR LESS ON TAP FOR TUESDAY.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING MAY NOT BE AS
STRONG AS FORECASTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING MAY NOT BE AS
STRONG AS FORECASTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING MAY NOT BE AS
STRONG AS FORECASTED.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING MAY NOT BE AS
STRONG AS FORECASTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING MAY NOT BE AS
STRONG AS FORECASTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY AFTERNOON-WEDNESDAY...VFR.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM KBDR TO KFRG.
OTHERWISE...VFR.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST LATER IN THE DAY
BEHIND A COLD FRONT. GUSTS COULD BE QUITE STRONG FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING...POSSIBLY JUST
SHY OF GALE FORCE FOR A SHORT TIME.

THEN WINDS DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. WILL EXTEND THE SCA THROUGH TONIGHT
FOR THE OCEAN WATERS...AND UNTIL MIDNIGHT ELSEWHERE.

SEAS ON THE OCEAN ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED INTO TUES MORNING.
AS THE WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO THE NW...SEAS WILL BEGIN TO
SUBSIDE...WITH SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY TUES AFTN. SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS THEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...WITH A POSSIBLE RETURN TO 25 KT GUSTS AND 5 FT SEAS OVER THE
WEEKEND DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PW
NEAR TERM...TONGUE
SHORT TERM...TONGUE/PW
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...GOODMAN
MARINE...TONGUE/PW
HYDROLOGY...TONGUE











000
FXUS61 KALY 281723
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
123 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK...WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST TO NEAR NORTHERN MAINE BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL BRING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA
TODAY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY FAIR AND
COOL WEATHER ON TUESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY FAIR AND COOL
WEATHER IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY CAUSE A FEW
AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER IMPULSE PIVOTING EAST NOW EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND TWO
DISTINCT AREAS OF VORTICITY SEEN IN RADAR IMAGERY...ONE BETWEEN
RME/GTB AND THE OTHER NEAR BGM. CONVECTION DEVELOPING AND
INCREASING IN COVERAGE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE DEEPER
CLOUDINESS IN CENTRAL/NORTHERN NY. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS IN
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND HAS ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO WARM A LITTLE MORE THAN CURRENT FORECAST...SO SOME
TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ADJUSTING RAIN
CHANCES BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND INCLUDING WORDING FOR GUSTY
WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN.

UPPER IMPULSES LIKE THIS ONE CAN ENHANCE CHANCES FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING...SO WILL SUGGEST AREAS OF
URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IN SOME AREAS...WITH ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT NO FLASH FLOOD WATCH
AT THIS TIME. ANTECEDENT RAINFALL HEAVIEST IN WESTERN MA/VT AND
NORTHERN TACONICS OF NY...WHERE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
LESS THAN IN THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY...WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND
EASTERN CATSKILLS.

INTERESTING 12Z SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION WITH OBVIOUS COOLING
ALOFT BETWEEN KBUF AND KALB...SO AGAIN...CHANCES FOR SEVERE ARE
PRESENT BUT SHOULD BE ISOLATED...ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE UPPER COMMA HEAD AND VORTICITY CENTERS SEEN ON
RADAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM`S COLD FRONT...THE THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END. WILL HAVE LINGERING THREAT OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE LOW IS DRAWN NORTHWARD AS THE
SHORT WAVE BECOMES ABSORBED BY THE LARGE CUT OFF LOW CENTERED NEAR
HUDSON`S BAY CANADA. .

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM COOLER AIR WILL BE DRAWN INTO THE
REGION ON NORTHWEST FLOW. INTO MID WEEK THE REGION WILL BE UNDER A
LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH PIECES OF ENERGY SPINNING ABOUT THE LARGE
CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN CANADA...WHICH WILL BE HARD TO TIME. WHILE
AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT
THE REGION SHOULD BE BETWEEN SHORT WAVES TUESDAY SO EXPECTING A DRY
DAY. HAVE POPS IN FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY MAINLY TO THE WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY BY 5 TO 10
DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

A LARGE CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN SITUATED JUST TO OUR
NORTHWEST OVER SOUTHERN CANADA TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE WEAKENING...IT WILL REMAIN
CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA TO ALLOW FOR CYCLONIC FLOW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ESP DURING THE DIURNALLY
FAVORED AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO
NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S FOR VALLEY
AREAS...AND MINS GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY START TO LIFT OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST...ANOTHER IMPULSE DIVING OUT OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST FOR THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL STRENGTHEN THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE CONUS...WHILE A STRONG RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE WESTERN US. THE RESULT WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. AGAIN...THE HIGHEST
COVERAGE/BEST CHANCE WILL BE DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING.  TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...WITH HIGHS RIGHT
AROUND 80 AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CHANGEABLE FLYING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS OVER
THE NEXT 12 HOURS THANKS TO A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA.

RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING...AND ARE DEPARTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.  THIS IS
ALLOWING FOR A REDUCTION IN FLYING CONDITIONS...ESP AT KPSF.

THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK LATER IN THE MORNING WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING BACK TO VFR...BUT ANOTHER LINE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PRESSURE AND
IT/S COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS WITH THIS ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON...ESP FOR THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS.

BEHIND THIS FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL TRANSPORT COOLER AND LESS
HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL END THE THREAT FOR
PRECIP...WITH SURFACE WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS FOR THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.  SOME LINGERING
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT...BUT FLYING
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR FOR ALL SITES. BY LATE TONIGHT...CLOUDS
SHOULD SCATTERED OUT AND WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS A
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK STATE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD.
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST TONIGHT ALLOWING COOLER
AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE
SURFACE AS WE HEAD THROUGH MID WEEK...HOWEVER ALOFT DISTURBANCES
WILL PASS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS A
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK STATE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH SOME STORMS AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS
VERY MOIST WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. HAVE CONTINUED WITH
ENHANCED WORDING IN FORECAST FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTAL ARE EXPECTED MAINLY NORTH OF I-90 WITH
AROUND AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
MAY RESULT IN SOME FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
AREAS WHICH HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED A ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE THE MOST VULNERABLE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/NAS
NEAR TERM...SND/NAS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA







000
FXUS61 KALY 281723
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
123 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK...WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST TO NEAR NORTHERN MAINE BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL BRING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA
TODAY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY FAIR AND
COOL WEATHER ON TUESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY FAIR AND COOL
WEATHER IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY CAUSE A FEW
AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER IMPULSE PIVOTING EAST NOW EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND TWO
DISTINCT AREAS OF VORTICITY SEEN IN RADAR IMAGERY...ONE BETWEEN
RME/GTB AND THE OTHER NEAR BGM. CONVECTION DEVELOPING AND
INCREASING IN COVERAGE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE DEEPER
CLOUDINESS IN CENTRAL/NORTHERN NY. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS IN
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND HAS ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO WARM A LITTLE MORE THAN CURRENT FORECAST...SO SOME
TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ADJUSTING RAIN
CHANCES BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND INCLUDING WORDING FOR GUSTY
WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN.

UPPER IMPULSES LIKE THIS ONE CAN ENHANCE CHANCES FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING...SO WILL SUGGEST AREAS OF
URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IN SOME AREAS...WITH ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT NO FLASH FLOOD WATCH
AT THIS TIME. ANTECEDENT RAINFALL HEAVIEST IN WESTERN MA/VT AND
NORTHERN TACONICS OF NY...WHERE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
LESS THAN IN THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY...WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND
EASTERN CATSKILLS.

INTERESTING 12Z SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION WITH OBVIOUS COOLING
ALOFT BETWEEN KBUF AND KALB...SO AGAIN...CHANCES FOR SEVERE ARE
PRESENT BUT SHOULD BE ISOLATED...ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE UPPER COMMA HEAD AND VORTICITY CENTERS SEEN ON
RADAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM`S COLD FRONT...THE THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END. WILL HAVE LINGERING THREAT OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE LOW IS DRAWN NORTHWARD AS THE
SHORT WAVE BECOMES ABSORBED BY THE LARGE CUT OFF LOW CENTERED NEAR
HUDSON`S BAY CANADA. .

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM COOLER AIR WILL BE DRAWN INTO THE
REGION ON NORTHWEST FLOW. INTO MID WEEK THE REGION WILL BE UNDER A
LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH PIECES OF ENERGY SPINNING ABOUT THE LARGE
CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN CANADA...WHICH WILL BE HARD TO TIME. WHILE
AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT
THE REGION SHOULD BE BETWEEN SHORT WAVES TUESDAY SO EXPECTING A DRY
DAY. HAVE POPS IN FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY MAINLY TO THE WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY BY 5 TO 10
DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

A LARGE CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN SITUATED JUST TO OUR
NORTHWEST OVER SOUTHERN CANADA TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE WEAKENING...IT WILL REMAIN
CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA TO ALLOW FOR CYCLONIC FLOW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ESP DURING THE DIURNALLY
FAVORED AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO
NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S FOR VALLEY
AREAS...AND MINS GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY START TO LIFT OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST...ANOTHER IMPULSE DIVING OUT OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST FOR THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL STRENGTHEN THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE CONUS...WHILE A STRONG RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE WESTERN US. THE RESULT WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. AGAIN...THE HIGHEST
COVERAGE/BEST CHANCE WILL BE DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING.  TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...WITH HIGHS RIGHT
AROUND 80 AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CHANGEABLE FLYING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS OVER
THE NEXT 12 HOURS THANKS TO A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA.

RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING...AND ARE DEPARTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.  THIS IS
ALLOWING FOR A REDUCTION IN FLYING CONDITIONS...ESP AT KPSF.

THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK LATER IN THE MORNING WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING BACK TO VFR...BUT ANOTHER LINE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PRESSURE AND
IT/S COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS WITH THIS ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON...ESP FOR THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS.

BEHIND THIS FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL TRANSPORT COOLER AND LESS
HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL END THE THREAT FOR
PRECIP...WITH SURFACE WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS FOR THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.  SOME LINGERING
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT...BUT FLYING
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR FOR ALL SITES. BY LATE TONIGHT...CLOUDS
SHOULD SCATTERED OUT AND WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS A
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK STATE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD.
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST TONIGHT ALLOWING COOLER
AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE
SURFACE AS WE HEAD THROUGH MID WEEK...HOWEVER ALOFT DISTURBANCES
WILL PASS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS A
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK STATE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH SOME STORMS AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS
VERY MOIST WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. HAVE CONTINUED WITH
ENHANCED WORDING IN FORECAST FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTAL ARE EXPECTED MAINLY NORTH OF I-90 WITH
AROUND AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
MAY RESULT IN SOME FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
AREAS WHICH HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED A ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE THE MOST VULNERABLE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/NAS
NEAR TERM...SND/NAS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA







000
FXUS61 KALY 281723
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
123 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK...WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST TO NEAR NORTHERN MAINE BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL BRING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA
TODAY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY FAIR AND
COOL WEATHER ON TUESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY FAIR AND COOL
WEATHER IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY CAUSE A FEW
AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER IMPULSE PIVOTING EAST NOW EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND TWO
DISTINCT AREAS OF VORTICITY SEEN IN RADAR IMAGERY...ONE BETWEEN
RME/GTB AND THE OTHER NEAR BGM. CONVECTION DEVELOPING AND
INCREASING IN COVERAGE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE DEEPER
CLOUDINESS IN CENTRAL/NORTHERN NY. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS IN
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND HAS ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO WARM A LITTLE MORE THAN CURRENT FORECAST...SO SOME
TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ADJUSTING RAIN
CHANCES BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND INCLUDING WORDING FOR GUSTY
WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN.

UPPER IMPULSES LIKE THIS ONE CAN ENHANCE CHANCES FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING...SO WILL SUGGEST AREAS OF
URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IN SOME AREAS...WITH ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT NO FLASH FLOOD WATCH
AT THIS TIME. ANTECEDENT RAINFALL HEAVIEST IN WESTERN MA/VT AND
NORTHERN TACONICS OF NY...WHERE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
LESS THAN IN THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY...WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND
EASTERN CATSKILLS.

INTERESTING 12Z SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION WITH OBVIOUS COOLING
ALOFT BETWEEN KBUF AND KALB...SO AGAIN...CHANCES FOR SEVERE ARE
PRESENT BUT SHOULD BE ISOLATED...ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE UPPER COMMA HEAD AND VORTICITY CENTERS SEEN ON
RADAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM`S COLD FRONT...THE THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END. WILL HAVE LINGERING THREAT OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE LOW IS DRAWN NORTHWARD AS THE
SHORT WAVE BECOMES ABSORBED BY THE LARGE CUT OFF LOW CENTERED NEAR
HUDSON`S BAY CANADA. .

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM COOLER AIR WILL BE DRAWN INTO THE
REGION ON NORTHWEST FLOW. INTO MID WEEK THE REGION WILL BE UNDER A
LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH PIECES OF ENERGY SPINNING ABOUT THE LARGE
CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN CANADA...WHICH WILL BE HARD TO TIME. WHILE
AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT
THE REGION SHOULD BE BETWEEN SHORT WAVES TUESDAY SO EXPECTING A DRY
DAY. HAVE POPS IN FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY MAINLY TO THE WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY BY 5 TO 10
DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

A LARGE CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN SITUATED JUST TO OUR
NORTHWEST OVER SOUTHERN CANADA TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE WEAKENING...IT WILL REMAIN
CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA TO ALLOW FOR CYCLONIC FLOW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ESP DURING THE DIURNALLY
FAVORED AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO
NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S FOR VALLEY
AREAS...AND MINS GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY START TO LIFT OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST...ANOTHER IMPULSE DIVING OUT OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST FOR THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL STRENGTHEN THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE CONUS...WHILE A STRONG RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE WESTERN US. THE RESULT WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. AGAIN...THE HIGHEST
COVERAGE/BEST CHANCE WILL BE DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING.  TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...WITH HIGHS RIGHT
AROUND 80 AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CHANGEABLE FLYING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS OVER
THE NEXT 12 HOURS THANKS TO A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA.

RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING...AND ARE DEPARTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.  THIS IS
ALLOWING FOR A REDUCTION IN FLYING CONDITIONS...ESP AT KPSF.

THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK LATER IN THE MORNING WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING BACK TO VFR...BUT ANOTHER LINE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PRESSURE AND
IT/S COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS WITH THIS ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON...ESP FOR THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS.

BEHIND THIS FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL TRANSPORT COOLER AND LESS
HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL END THE THREAT FOR
PRECIP...WITH SURFACE WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS FOR THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.  SOME LINGERING
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT...BUT FLYING
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR FOR ALL SITES. BY LATE TONIGHT...CLOUDS
SHOULD SCATTERED OUT AND WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS A
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK STATE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD.
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST TONIGHT ALLOWING COOLER
AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE
SURFACE AS WE HEAD THROUGH MID WEEK...HOWEVER ALOFT DISTURBANCES
WILL PASS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS A
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK STATE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH SOME STORMS AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS
VERY MOIST WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. HAVE CONTINUED WITH
ENHANCED WORDING IN FORECAST FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTAL ARE EXPECTED MAINLY NORTH OF I-90 WITH
AROUND AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
MAY RESULT IN SOME FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
AREAS WHICH HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED A ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE THE MOST VULNERABLE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/NAS
NEAR TERM...SND/NAS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA







000
FXUS61 KALY 281723
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
123 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK...WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST TO NEAR NORTHERN MAINE BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL BRING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA
TODAY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY FAIR AND
COOL WEATHER ON TUESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY FAIR AND COOL
WEATHER IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY CAUSE A FEW
AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER IMPULSE PIVOTING EAST NOW EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND TWO
DISTINCT AREAS OF VORTICITY SEEN IN RADAR IMAGERY...ONE BETWEEN
RME/GTB AND THE OTHER NEAR BGM. CONVECTION DEVELOPING AND
INCREASING IN COVERAGE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE DEEPER
CLOUDINESS IN CENTRAL/NORTHERN NY. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS IN
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND HAS ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO WARM A LITTLE MORE THAN CURRENT FORECAST...SO SOME
TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ADJUSTING RAIN
CHANCES BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND INCLUDING WORDING FOR GUSTY
WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN.

UPPER IMPULSES LIKE THIS ONE CAN ENHANCE CHANCES FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING...SO WILL SUGGEST AREAS OF
URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IN SOME AREAS...WITH ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT NO FLASH FLOOD WATCH
AT THIS TIME. ANTECEDENT RAINFALL HEAVIEST IN WESTERN MA/VT AND
NORTHERN TACONICS OF NY...WHERE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
LESS THAN IN THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY...WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND
EASTERN CATSKILLS.

INTERESTING 12Z SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION WITH OBVIOUS COOLING
ALOFT BETWEEN KBUF AND KALB...SO AGAIN...CHANCES FOR SEVERE ARE
PRESENT BUT SHOULD BE ISOLATED...ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE UPPER COMMA HEAD AND VORTICITY CENTERS SEEN ON
RADAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM`S COLD FRONT...THE THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END. WILL HAVE LINGERING THREAT OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE LOW IS DRAWN NORTHWARD AS THE
SHORT WAVE BECOMES ABSORBED BY THE LARGE CUT OFF LOW CENTERED NEAR
HUDSON`S BAY CANADA. .

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM COOLER AIR WILL BE DRAWN INTO THE
REGION ON NORTHWEST FLOW. INTO MID WEEK THE REGION WILL BE UNDER A
LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH PIECES OF ENERGY SPINNING ABOUT THE LARGE
CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN CANADA...WHICH WILL BE HARD TO TIME. WHILE
AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT
THE REGION SHOULD BE BETWEEN SHORT WAVES TUESDAY SO EXPECTING A DRY
DAY. HAVE POPS IN FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY MAINLY TO THE WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY BY 5 TO 10
DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

A LARGE CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN SITUATED JUST TO OUR
NORTHWEST OVER SOUTHERN CANADA TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE WEAKENING...IT WILL REMAIN
CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA TO ALLOW FOR CYCLONIC FLOW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ESP DURING THE DIURNALLY
FAVORED AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO
NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S FOR VALLEY
AREAS...AND MINS GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY START TO LIFT OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST...ANOTHER IMPULSE DIVING OUT OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST FOR THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL STRENGTHEN THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE CONUS...WHILE A STRONG RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE WESTERN US. THE RESULT WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. AGAIN...THE HIGHEST
COVERAGE/BEST CHANCE WILL BE DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING.  TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...WITH HIGHS RIGHT
AROUND 80 AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CHANGEABLE FLYING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS OVER
THE NEXT 12 HOURS THANKS TO A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA.

RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING...AND ARE DEPARTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.  THIS IS
ALLOWING FOR A REDUCTION IN FLYING CONDITIONS...ESP AT KPSF.

THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK LATER IN THE MORNING WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING BACK TO VFR...BUT ANOTHER LINE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PRESSURE AND
IT/S COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS WITH THIS ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON...ESP FOR THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS.

BEHIND THIS FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL TRANSPORT COOLER AND LESS
HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL END THE THREAT FOR
PRECIP...WITH SURFACE WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS FOR THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.  SOME LINGERING
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT...BUT FLYING
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR FOR ALL SITES. BY LATE TONIGHT...CLOUDS
SHOULD SCATTERED OUT AND WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS A
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK STATE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD.
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST TONIGHT ALLOWING COOLER
AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE
SURFACE AS WE HEAD THROUGH MID WEEK...HOWEVER ALOFT DISTURBANCES
WILL PASS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS A
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK STATE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH SOME STORMS AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS
VERY MOIST WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. HAVE CONTINUED WITH
ENHANCED WORDING IN FORECAST FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTAL ARE EXPECTED MAINLY NORTH OF I-90 WITH
AROUND AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
MAY RESULT IN SOME FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
AREAS WHICH HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED A ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE THE MOST VULNERABLE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/NAS
NEAR TERM...SND/NAS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA







000
FXUS61 KOKX 281601 CCA
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1043 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK THROUGH NEW ENGLAND TODAY
AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THE COLD FRONT PUSHES
EAST TONIGHT...SETTLING WELL OFFSHORE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES AGAIN FOR NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
999 HPA SFC LOW NEAR CORTLAND NY AS OF 10 AM. COLD FRONT IS
ENTERING OUR WESTERN FCST AREA IN JERSEY. A LOT OF CLOUD COVER
SEEN IN LOWER LEVELS ON VISIBLE IMAGERY WITH DRY MID AND HIGH
LEVELS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. UPPER LOW NEAR ROCHESTER WITH
CONVECTION/HEAVY RAIN.

CAP AROUND 800 HPA SHOULD KEEP ANYTHING FROM POPPING BEFORE
AFTERNOON AND THUS REMOVED POPS UNTIL AFTERNOON. ONCE CAP
WEAKENS...CAPE IS NARROW WITH LOTS OF DRY AIR ALOFT AND CONVECTIVE
ALLOWING MODELS SUGGESTING SHOWERS ARE SCATTERED (AT BEST) IN NATURE
THIS AFTN - HAVE LOWERED POPS. FOCUS STILL TO THE NORTH WHERE
GREATER INSTABILITY EXISTS CLOSER THE THE UPPER LOW PASSING TO THE
NORTH.

WITH LITTLE IF ANY DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND LIFTING LCL`S, THINK THE
THREAT FOR SEVERE IS LOW. WILL REMOVE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
WORDING FROM ALL BUT EXTREME NORTHERN ZONES.

MAIN WX STORY IS THE LATE JULY WINDS WHICH WILL GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH
AS WE MIX UP TO 800-850 HPA.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS
ALONG THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FACING BEACHES DURING THE DAY TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS/TSTMS DIMINISH IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY
THIS EVENING AS POTENT SHORTWAVE PIVOTS NORTHEASTWARD. EVENING
WINDS DIMINISH AS SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR. LOW TEMPS SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE LOWER/MIDDLE 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR TO THE LOWER 60S
NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SOUTH TUES THROUGH MID WEEK WITH A CLOSED
LOW HOVERING JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. WITH MINIMAL PROGRESSIVE
MOVEMENT ALOFT...THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST...BUT THEN
STALL OFFSHORE. IT SHOULD PUSH JUST FAR ENOUGH EAST TO HAVE MINIMAL
IMPACT THROUGH THE COMING WEEK...BUT WILL COME BACK INTO THE PICTURE
FOR THE COMING WEEKEND. AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL MAINTAIN HOLD OF THE REGION
THROUGH THURS. SHORTWAVE ROTATING ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE TROUGH
COULD TRIGGER AN ISO SHOWER/TSTM TUES AFTN OVER FAR NORTH AND
WESTERN EDGES OF THE AREA...BUT WITH A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS MOVING
IN...COULD LIKELY WILL END UP BEING A DRY DAY. THE NEXT MENTION
OF PCPN COMES THURS AFTN WITH A RETURN FLOW SETTING UP OVER THE
REGION...INJECTING IN A SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST AIR MASS. THE CLOSED
LOW ALOFT FINALLY PUSHES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...THOUGH A LONGWAVE
TROUGH STILL WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK. THE PATTERN STILL BRINGS THROUGH MULTIPLE
SHORTWAVES THURS-FRI...EACH BRINGING A SLIGHT CHC IN TRIGGERING AN
ISO SHOWER OR TSTM.

LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG THE STALLED FRONT BY THIS WEEKEND...RIDING
THE FRONT WHILE SLOWLY APPROACHING THE AREA. GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS
BRINGS THE SFC LOW NEAR THE TRI STATE AREA BY SUN MORNING. ENOUGH
FORCING ALOFT ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD
COMBINE WITH THE SFC LOW TO PRODUCE SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS...ESP FOR
LATER SAT THROUGH SUN.

TEMPS REMAIN NEAR STEADY THROUGH THE COMING WEEK...A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE NW TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
BUILDING FROM THE WEST.

MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO BURN OFF THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS
DUE TOT HE HEATING OF THE DAY. MAINLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED FOR THE
REST OF THE DAY...BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR WIDELY
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLD TSTM THAT COULD
BRING BRIEF MVFR OR LOWER CONDS TO AREAS NW OF NYC METRO.

S WINDS WILL BECOME SW AND INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON TO 10-15 KT
WITH GUSTS 15-20 KT...THEN VEER W THIS EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH AND INCREASE FURTHER TO 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS 25-28
KT.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS THIS AFTERNOON MIGHT NOT BE AS STRONG
AS FORECASTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS THIS AFTERNOON MIGHT NOT BE AS STRONG
AS FORECASTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CONDS COULD LAST UNTIL 16Z. WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON MIGHT NOT BE AS STRONG AS FORECASTED.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS THIS AFTERNOON MIGHT NOT BE AS STRONG
AS FORECASTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS THIS AFTERNOON MIGHT NOT BE AS STRONG
AS FORECASTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CONDS COULD LAST UNTIL 16Z-17Z. WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON MIGHT NOT BE AS STRONG AS FORECASTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUE THROUGH FRI...
.TUE-THU...VFR.
.FRI...AN ISOLD SHOWER OR TSTM COULD PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR OR LOWER
CONDS...OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST LATER IN THE DAY
BEHIND A COLD FRONT. GUSTS COULD BE QUITE STRONG FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING...POSSIBLY JUST
SHY OF GALE FORCE FOR A SHORT TIME.

THEN WINDS DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. WILL EXTEND THE SCA THROUGH TONIGHT
FOR THE OCEAN WATERS...AND UNTIL MIDNIGHT ELSEWHERE.

SEAS ON THE OCEAN ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED INTO TUES MORNING.
AS THE WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO THE NW...SEAS WILL BEGIN TO
SUBSIDE...WITH SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY TUES AFTN. SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS THEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...WITH A POSSIBLE RETURN TO 25 KT GUSTS AND 5 FT SEAS OVER THE
WEEKEND DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PW
NEAR TERM...TONGUE/PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...GOODMAN
MARINE...PW
HYDROLOGY...















000
FXUS61 KOKX 281601 CCA
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1043 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK THROUGH NEW ENGLAND TODAY
AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THE COLD FRONT PUSHES
EAST TONIGHT...SETTLING WELL OFFSHORE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES AGAIN FOR NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
999 HPA SFC LOW NEAR CORTLAND NY AS OF 10 AM. COLD FRONT IS
ENTERING OUR WESTERN FCST AREA IN JERSEY. A LOT OF CLOUD COVER
SEEN IN LOWER LEVELS ON VISIBLE IMAGERY WITH DRY MID AND HIGH
LEVELS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. UPPER LOW NEAR ROCHESTER WITH
CONVECTION/HEAVY RAIN.

CAP AROUND 800 HPA SHOULD KEEP ANYTHING FROM POPPING BEFORE
AFTERNOON AND THUS REMOVED POPS UNTIL AFTERNOON. ONCE CAP
WEAKENS...CAPE IS NARROW WITH LOTS OF DRY AIR ALOFT AND CONVECTIVE
ALLOWING MODELS SUGGESTING SHOWERS ARE SCATTERED (AT BEST) IN NATURE
THIS AFTN - HAVE LOWERED POPS. FOCUS STILL TO THE NORTH WHERE
GREATER INSTABILITY EXISTS CLOSER THE THE UPPER LOW PASSING TO THE
NORTH.

WITH LITTLE IF ANY DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND LIFTING LCL`S, THINK THE
THREAT FOR SEVERE IS LOW. WILL REMOVE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
WORDING FROM ALL BUT EXTREME NORTHERN ZONES.

MAIN WX STORY IS THE LATE JULY WINDS WHICH WILL GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH
AS WE MIX UP TO 800-850 HPA.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS
ALONG THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FACING BEACHES DURING THE DAY TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS/TSTMS DIMINISH IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY
THIS EVENING AS POTENT SHORTWAVE PIVOTS NORTHEASTWARD. EVENING
WINDS DIMINISH AS SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR. LOW TEMPS SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE LOWER/MIDDLE 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR TO THE LOWER 60S
NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SOUTH TUES THROUGH MID WEEK WITH A CLOSED
LOW HOVERING JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. WITH MINIMAL PROGRESSIVE
MOVEMENT ALOFT...THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST...BUT THEN
STALL OFFSHORE. IT SHOULD PUSH JUST FAR ENOUGH EAST TO HAVE MINIMAL
IMPACT THROUGH THE COMING WEEK...BUT WILL COME BACK INTO THE PICTURE
FOR THE COMING WEEKEND. AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL MAINTAIN HOLD OF THE REGION
THROUGH THURS. SHORTWAVE ROTATING ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE TROUGH
COULD TRIGGER AN ISO SHOWER/TSTM TUES AFTN OVER FAR NORTH AND
WESTERN EDGES OF THE AREA...BUT WITH A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS MOVING
IN...COULD LIKELY WILL END UP BEING A DRY DAY. THE NEXT MENTION
OF PCPN COMES THURS AFTN WITH A RETURN FLOW SETTING UP OVER THE
REGION...INJECTING IN A SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST AIR MASS. THE CLOSED
LOW ALOFT FINALLY PUSHES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...THOUGH A LONGWAVE
TROUGH STILL WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK. THE PATTERN STILL BRINGS THROUGH MULTIPLE
SHORTWAVES THURS-FRI...EACH BRINGING A SLIGHT CHC IN TRIGGERING AN
ISO SHOWER OR TSTM.

LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG THE STALLED FRONT BY THIS WEEKEND...RIDING
THE FRONT WHILE SLOWLY APPROACHING THE AREA. GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS
BRINGS THE SFC LOW NEAR THE TRI STATE AREA BY SUN MORNING. ENOUGH
FORCING ALOFT ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD
COMBINE WITH THE SFC LOW TO PRODUCE SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS...ESP FOR
LATER SAT THROUGH SUN.

TEMPS REMAIN NEAR STEADY THROUGH THE COMING WEEK...A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE NW TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
BUILDING FROM THE WEST.

MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO BURN OFF THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS
DUE TOT HE HEATING OF THE DAY. MAINLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED FOR THE
REST OF THE DAY...BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR WIDELY
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLD TSTM THAT COULD
BRING BRIEF MVFR OR LOWER CONDS TO AREAS NW OF NYC METRO.

S WINDS WILL BECOME SW AND INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON TO 10-15 KT
WITH GUSTS 15-20 KT...THEN VEER W THIS EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH AND INCREASE FURTHER TO 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS 25-28
KT.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS THIS AFTERNOON MIGHT NOT BE AS STRONG
AS FORECASTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS THIS AFTERNOON MIGHT NOT BE AS STRONG
AS FORECASTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CONDS COULD LAST UNTIL 16Z. WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON MIGHT NOT BE AS STRONG AS FORECASTED.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS THIS AFTERNOON MIGHT NOT BE AS STRONG
AS FORECASTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS THIS AFTERNOON MIGHT NOT BE AS STRONG
AS FORECASTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CONDS COULD LAST UNTIL 16Z-17Z. WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON MIGHT NOT BE AS STRONG AS FORECASTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUE THROUGH FRI...
.TUE-THU...VFR.
.FRI...AN ISOLD SHOWER OR TSTM COULD PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR OR LOWER
CONDS...OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST LATER IN THE DAY
BEHIND A COLD FRONT. GUSTS COULD BE QUITE STRONG FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING...POSSIBLY JUST
SHY OF GALE FORCE FOR A SHORT TIME.

THEN WINDS DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. WILL EXTEND THE SCA THROUGH TONIGHT
FOR THE OCEAN WATERS...AND UNTIL MIDNIGHT ELSEWHERE.

SEAS ON THE OCEAN ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED INTO TUES MORNING.
AS THE WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO THE NW...SEAS WILL BEGIN TO
SUBSIDE...WITH SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY TUES AFTN. SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS THEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...WITH A POSSIBLE RETURN TO 25 KT GUSTS AND 5 FT SEAS OVER THE
WEEKEND DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PW
NEAR TERM...TONGUE/PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...GOODMAN
MARINE...PW
HYDROLOGY...














000
FXUS61 KBOX 281539
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1139 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RATHER STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BY JULY STANDARDS WILL
MOVE ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK TODAY BEFORE HEADING INTO NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. IT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY POSSIBLE STRONG STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...BRINGING
DRIER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER...AS THE FRONT REMAINS STALLED OVER
THE MARITIMES AND NEW ENGLAND OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
*** FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON ***

1135 AM UPDATE...
JUST MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. SUNSHINE HAS
BROKEN THROUGH THE CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MA. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE THREAT OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

ONCE THIS INITIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS LIFTS N BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS.

MODELS INSISTENT THAT DRY SLOT WILL WORK ITS WAY UP COAST INTO SE
NEW ENGLAND...AND DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD RESIDE ACROSS INTERIOR AS
SEEN IN K-INDEX FIELDS. INSTABILITY IS IN QUESTION AS WE ARE NOT
CONFIDENT ON HOW MUCH CLEARING WILL OCCUR...IF AT ALL. BUT
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF HIGH 0-6KM SHEAR /OVER 35KT/ AND GOOD LOW
LEVEL TURNING IN FORECAST HODOGRAPHS SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR AT
LEAST FEW STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WINDS
AND HAIL ARE MAIN THREATS...BUT WE CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
WEAK TORNADO GIVEN HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...LOW LCL/S AND
PRESENCE OF CLOSED UPPER LOW. SYSTEM ALSO HAS HISTORY OF PRODUCING
A FEW WEAK TORNADOES THUS FAR AS WELL.

GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN AMOUNT OF HEATING...STAYED CLOSE TO MODEL
BLEND FOR HIGHS TODAY /70S TO AROUND 80/ WHICH ALSO MATCHES MIXING
TO 850 MB /10-11C/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH REGION TONIGHT BRINGING MUCH LESS HUMID
AIR BY DAYBREAK AS SKIES CLEAR. LIGHT WINDS WITH LEFTOVER MOISTURE
MAY LEAD TO PATCHY FOG ACROSS INTERIOR.

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND TUE...RESULTING IN
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. NOT MUCH OF AIRMASS CHANGE SO HIGHS ONCE AGAIN
SHOULD TOP OFF IN 70S TO AROUND 80 BUT WITH LOW HUMIDITY. WEAK
GRADIENT SUPPORTS AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ALONG BOTH COASTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...

MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A MERIDIONAL TYPE FLOW THROUGH THE
WEEK. THE FOUR LOBES OF THIS FLOW ARE THE GULF OF ALASKA
TROUGH...WESTERN NORTH AMERICA RIDGE...EASTERN NORTH AMERICA
TROUGH...AND WEST ATLANTIC RIDGE.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK COLD POOL IN EASTERN NO-AM
TROUGH...SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE DAILY INSTABILITY SHOWERS. ALSO
SHOWERS ALONG THE STALLED FRONT OFFSHORE.  THE CORE OF THE EASTERN
NO-AM TROUGH EJECTS NORTH THROUGH QUEBEC FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. BUT A
WEAKER TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES/MISS RIVER VALLEY OVER
THE WEEKEND.

THE SIMILARITY IN MODEL FIELDS FAVORS A BLEND OF AVAILABLE DATA.

THE DAILIES...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH THE UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST
AND UPPER RIDGE TO OUR EAST...EXPECT THE DEPARTED COLD FRONT TO
ALIGN WITH THE UPPER FLOW AND STALL. UPPER FLOW OVER NEW ENGLAND
WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MEANWHILE COLD POOL INSTABILITY
UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER NY AND ONTARIO WHILE NEW
ENGLAND IS UNDER THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET...A
SUBSIDENT ZONE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. FOR THE MOST PART THIS LOOKS LIKE A DRY WEATHER PERIOD
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S...TRENDING TO THE LOWER 60S FRIDAY.

THIS WILL MEAN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WELL OFFSHORE AND OVER
NY/ONTARIO. MAIN CONCERN FOR PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WOULD BE IF SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM THE UPPER TROUGH
WHICH COULD SLIDE ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES INTO THE CT VALLEY.  SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE AND THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET WILL
FAVOR SUBSIDENCE AND DRY WEATHER.  WE WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
IN THE BERKS WEDNESDAY AND WEST OF MHT-ORH-IJD THURSDAY-FRIDAY...AND
CHANCE POPS ALONG/WEST OF THE CT VALLEY THURSDAY-FRIDAY. PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...AS THE CORE OF THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS
NORTH...EXPECT THE ATLANTIC HIGH TO SHIFT A LITTLE TO THE WEST.
THIS WOULD PUSH THE OFFSHORE FRONT WEST CLOSER TO THE COAST AND
BRING AN INCREASE IN THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS TODAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE TONIGHT AND
MONDAY.

SCATTERED IFR IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...OTHERWISE VFR DEVELOPING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MA AND RI.

SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOW REDEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR AFTER
18Z. EXPECT MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN ANY TSTMS. BEST CHANCE FOR TSTMS
WILL BE IN AREAS ALONG/WEST/NORTH OF I-495. THERE WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE STORMS IN THIS AREA TO PRODUCE STRONG OR
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR AFTER 00Z TUE...ALTHOUGH PATCHY
MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN FOG. VFR TUE WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR CIGS/VSBYS...FAIRLY CONFIDENT
ON IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER 15Z. TS SHOULD REMAIN W OF AIRPORT
18Z-22Z.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LIFR CIGS/VSBYS...FAIRLY
CONFIDENT IN IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER 13Z. TS MOST LIKELY 18Z-
22Z.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VFR. AREAS OF IFR IN EARLY MORNING FOG EACH DAY.  MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSTMS MAINLY WEST OF MHT AND ORH.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE. MAIN CONCERN IS FOR ROUGH SEAS ON
S COASTAL WATERS WHERE SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED INTO TUE.

S/SW FLOW PREVAILS TODAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO BUILDING SEAS ON S
COASTAL WATERS...REACHING AS HIGH AS 5 OR 6 FT OFFSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALSO MAINTAIN PATCHY DENSE FOG THIS MORNING
ON S COASTAL WATERS.

SHOWERS/STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS WATERS THIS MORNING FROM LONG
ISLAND. SO FAR THESE STORMS HAVE PRODUCED FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
MAY PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS TO 35KT. POSSIBILITY OF A FEW MORE
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ON E MA WATERS.

COLD FRONT APPROACHES WATERS TONIGHT BUT EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF
PATCHY DENSE FOG...AT LEAST EARLY TONIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD TUE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES. SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDE OFFSHORE.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SEAS GENERALLY LESS THAN 5 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT MAY
APPROACH 5 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD...SOUTHWEST MIDWEEK SHIFTING TO
SOUTHEAST FRIDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/JWD
NEAR TERM...WTB/BELK/JWD
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/JWD
MARINE...WTB/JWD



000
FXUS61 KBOX 281539
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1139 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RATHER STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BY JULY STANDARDS WILL
MOVE ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK TODAY BEFORE HEADING INTO NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. IT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY POSSIBLE STRONG STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...BRINGING
DRIER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER...AS THE FRONT REMAINS STALLED OVER
THE MARITIMES AND NEW ENGLAND OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
*** FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON ***

1135 AM UPDATE...
JUST MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. SUNSHINE HAS
BROKEN THROUGH THE CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MA. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE THREAT OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

ONCE THIS INITIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS LIFTS N BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS.

MODELS INSISTENT THAT DRY SLOT WILL WORK ITS WAY UP COAST INTO SE
NEW ENGLAND...AND DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD RESIDE ACROSS INTERIOR AS
SEEN IN K-INDEX FIELDS. INSTABILITY IS IN QUESTION AS WE ARE NOT
CONFIDENT ON HOW MUCH CLEARING WILL OCCUR...IF AT ALL. BUT
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF HIGH 0-6KM SHEAR /OVER 35KT/ AND GOOD LOW
LEVEL TURNING IN FORECAST HODOGRAPHS SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR AT
LEAST FEW STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WINDS
AND HAIL ARE MAIN THREATS...BUT WE CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
WEAK TORNADO GIVEN HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...LOW LCL/S AND
PRESENCE OF CLOSED UPPER LOW. SYSTEM ALSO HAS HISTORY OF PRODUCING
A FEW WEAK TORNADOES THUS FAR AS WELL.

GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN AMOUNT OF HEATING...STAYED CLOSE TO MODEL
BLEND FOR HIGHS TODAY /70S TO AROUND 80/ WHICH ALSO MATCHES MIXING
TO 850 MB /10-11C/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH REGION TONIGHT BRINGING MUCH LESS HUMID
AIR BY DAYBREAK AS SKIES CLEAR. LIGHT WINDS WITH LEFTOVER MOISTURE
MAY LEAD TO PATCHY FOG ACROSS INTERIOR.

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND TUE...RESULTING IN
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. NOT MUCH OF AIRMASS CHANGE SO HIGHS ONCE AGAIN
SHOULD TOP OFF IN 70S TO AROUND 80 BUT WITH LOW HUMIDITY. WEAK
GRADIENT SUPPORTS AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ALONG BOTH COASTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...

MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A MERIDIONAL TYPE FLOW THROUGH THE
WEEK. THE FOUR LOBES OF THIS FLOW ARE THE GULF OF ALASKA
TROUGH...WESTERN NORTH AMERICA RIDGE...EASTERN NORTH AMERICA
TROUGH...AND WEST ATLANTIC RIDGE.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK COLD POOL IN EASTERN NO-AM
TROUGH...SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE DAILY INSTABILITY SHOWERS. ALSO
SHOWERS ALONG THE STALLED FRONT OFFSHORE.  THE CORE OF THE EASTERN
NO-AM TROUGH EJECTS NORTH THROUGH QUEBEC FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. BUT A
WEAKER TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES/MISS RIVER VALLEY OVER
THE WEEKEND.

THE SIMILARITY IN MODEL FIELDS FAVORS A BLEND OF AVAILABLE DATA.

THE DAILIES...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH THE UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST
AND UPPER RIDGE TO OUR EAST...EXPECT THE DEPARTED COLD FRONT TO
ALIGN WITH THE UPPER FLOW AND STALL. UPPER FLOW OVER NEW ENGLAND
WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MEANWHILE COLD POOL INSTABILITY
UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER NY AND ONTARIO WHILE NEW
ENGLAND IS UNDER THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET...A
SUBSIDENT ZONE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. FOR THE MOST PART THIS LOOKS LIKE A DRY WEATHER PERIOD
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S...TRENDING TO THE LOWER 60S FRIDAY.

THIS WILL MEAN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WELL OFFSHORE AND OVER
NY/ONTARIO. MAIN CONCERN FOR PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WOULD BE IF SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM THE UPPER TROUGH
WHICH COULD SLIDE ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES INTO THE CT VALLEY.  SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE AND THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET WILL
FAVOR SUBSIDENCE AND DRY WEATHER.  WE WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
IN THE BERKS WEDNESDAY AND WEST OF MHT-ORH-IJD THURSDAY-FRIDAY...AND
CHANCE POPS ALONG/WEST OF THE CT VALLEY THURSDAY-FRIDAY. PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...AS THE CORE OF THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS
NORTH...EXPECT THE ATLANTIC HIGH TO SHIFT A LITTLE TO THE WEST.
THIS WOULD PUSH THE OFFSHORE FRONT WEST CLOSER TO THE COAST AND
BRING AN INCREASE IN THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS TODAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE TONIGHT AND
MONDAY.

SCATTERED IFR IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...OTHERWISE VFR DEVELOPING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MA AND RI.

SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOW REDEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR AFTER
18Z. EXPECT MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN ANY TSTMS. BEST CHANCE FOR TSTMS
WILL BE IN AREAS ALONG/WEST/NORTH OF I-495. THERE WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE STORMS IN THIS AREA TO PRODUCE STRONG OR
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR AFTER 00Z TUE...ALTHOUGH PATCHY
MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN FOG. VFR TUE WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR CIGS/VSBYS...FAIRLY CONFIDENT
ON IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER 15Z. TS SHOULD REMAIN W OF AIRPORT
18Z-22Z.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LIFR CIGS/VSBYS...FAIRLY
CONFIDENT IN IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER 13Z. TS MOST LIKELY 18Z-
22Z.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VFR. AREAS OF IFR IN EARLY MORNING FOG EACH DAY.  MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSTMS MAINLY WEST OF MHT AND ORH.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE. MAIN CONCERN IS FOR ROUGH SEAS ON
S COASTAL WATERS WHERE SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED INTO TUE.

S/SW FLOW PREVAILS TODAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO BUILDING SEAS ON S
COASTAL WATERS...REACHING AS HIGH AS 5 OR 6 FT OFFSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALSO MAINTAIN PATCHY DENSE FOG THIS MORNING
ON S COASTAL WATERS.

SHOWERS/STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS WATERS THIS MORNING FROM LONG
ISLAND. SO FAR THESE STORMS HAVE PRODUCED FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
MAY PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS TO 35KT. POSSIBILITY OF A FEW MORE
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ON E MA WATERS.

COLD FRONT APPROACHES WATERS TONIGHT BUT EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF
PATCHY DENSE FOG...AT LEAST EARLY TONIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD TUE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES. SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDE OFFSHORE.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SEAS GENERALLY LESS THAN 5 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT MAY
APPROACH 5 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD...SOUTHWEST MIDWEEK SHIFTING TO
SOUTHEAST FRIDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/JWD
NEAR TERM...WTB/BELK/JWD
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/JWD
MARINE...WTB/JWD



000
FXUS61 KBOX 281539
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1139 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RATHER STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BY JULY STANDARDS WILL
MOVE ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK TODAY BEFORE HEADING INTO NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. IT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY POSSIBLE STRONG STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...BRINGING
DRIER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER...AS THE FRONT REMAINS STALLED OVER
THE MARITIMES AND NEW ENGLAND OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
*** FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON ***

1135 AM UPDATE...
JUST MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. SUNSHINE HAS
BROKEN THROUGH THE CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MA. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE THREAT OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

ONCE THIS INITIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS LIFTS N BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS.

MODELS INSISTENT THAT DRY SLOT WILL WORK ITS WAY UP COAST INTO SE
NEW ENGLAND...AND DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD RESIDE ACROSS INTERIOR AS
SEEN IN K-INDEX FIELDS. INSTABILITY IS IN QUESTION AS WE ARE NOT
CONFIDENT ON HOW MUCH CLEARING WILL OCCUR...IF AT ALL. BUT
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF HIGH 0-6KM SHEAR /OVER 35KT/ AND GOOD LOW
LEVEL TURNING IN FORECAST HODOGRAPHS SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR AT
LEAST FEW STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WINDS
AND HAIL ARE MAIN THREATS...BUT WE CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
WEAK TORNADO GIVEN HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...LOW LCL/S AND
PRESENCE OF CLOSED UPPER LOW. SYSTEM ALSO HAS HISTORY OF PRODUCING
A FEW WEAK TORNADOES THUS FAR AS WELL.

GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN AMOUNT OF HEATING...STAYED CLOSE TO MODEL
BLEND FOR HIGHS TODAY /70S TO AROUND 80/ WHICH ALSO MATCHES MIXING
TO 850 MB /10-11C/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH REGION TONIGHT BRINGING MUCH LESS HUMID
AIR BY DAYBREAK AS SKIES CLEAR. LIGHT WINDS WITH LEFTOVER MOISTURE
MAY LEAD TO PATCHY FOG ACROSS INTERIOR.

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND TUE...RESULTING IN
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. NOT MUCH OF AIRMASS CHANGE SO HIGHS ONCE AGAIN
SHOULD TOP OFF IN 70S TO AROUND 80 BUT WITH LOW HUMIDITY. WEAK
GRADIENT SUPPORTS AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ALONG BOTH COASTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...

MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A MERIDIONAL TYPE FLOW THROUGH THE
WEEK. THE FOUR LOBES OF THIS FLOW ARE THE GULF OF ALASKA
TROUGH...WESTERN NORTH AMERICA RIDGE...EASTERN NORTH AMERICA
TROUGH...AND WEST ATLANTIC RIDGE.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK COLD POOL IN EASTERN NO-AM
TROUGH...SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE DAILY INSTABILITY SHOWERS. ALSO
SHOWERS ALONG THE STALLED FRONT OFFSHORE.  THE CORE OF THE EASTERN
NO-AM TROUGH EJECTS NORTH THROUGH QUEBEC FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. BUT A
WEAKER TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES/MISS RIVER VALLEY OVER
THE WEEKEND.

THE SIMILARITY IN MODEL FIELDS FAVORS A BLEND OF AVAILABLE DATA.

THE DAILIES...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH THE UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST
AND UPPER RIDGE TO OUR EAST...EXPECT THE DEPARTED COLD FRONT TO
ALIGN WITH THE UPPER FLOW AND STALL. UPPER FLOW OVER NEW ENGLAND
WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MEANWHILE COLD POOL INSTABILITY
UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER NY AND ONTARIO WHILE NEW
ENGLAND IS UNDER THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET...A
SUBSIDENT ZONE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. FOR THE MOST PART THIS LOOKS LIKE A DRY WEATHER PERIOD
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S...TRENDING TO THE LOWER 60S FRIDAY.

THIS WILL MEAN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WELL OFFSHORE AND OVER
NY/ONTARIO. MAIN CONCERN FOR PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WOULD BE IF SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM THE UPPER TROUGH
WHICH COULD SLIDE ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES INTO THE CT VALLEY.  SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE AND THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET WILL
FAVOR SUBSIDENCE AND DRY WEATHER.  WE WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
IN THE BERKS WEDNESDAY AND WEST OF MHT-ORH-IJD THURSDAY-FRIDAY...AND
CHANCE POPS ALONG/WEST OF THE CT VALLEY THURSDAY-FRIDAY. PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...AS THE CORE OF THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS
NORTH...EXPECT THE ATLANTIC HIGH TO SHIFT A LITTLE TO THE WEST.
THIS WOULD PUSH THE OFFSHORE FRONT WEST CLOSER TO THE COAST AND
BRING AN INCREASE IN THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS TODAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE TONIGHT AND
MONDAY.

SCATTERED IFR IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...OTHERWISE VFR DEVELOPING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MA AND RI.

SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOW REDEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR AFTER
18Z. EXPECT MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN ANY TSTMS. BEST CHANCE FOR TSTMS
WILL BE IN AREAS ALONG/WEST/NORTH OF I-495. THERE WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE STORMS IN THIS AREA TO PRODUCE STRONG OR
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR AFTER 00Z TUE...ALTHOUGH PATCHY
MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN FOG. VFR TUE WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR CIGS/VSBYS...FAIRLY CONFIDENT
ON IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER 15Z. TS SHOULD REMAIN W OF AIRPORT
18Z-22Z.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LIFR CIGS/VSBYS...FAIRLY
CONFIDENT IN IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER 13Z. TS MOST LIKELY 18Z-
22Z.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VFR. AREAS OF IFR IN EARLY MORNING FOG EACH DAY.  MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSTMS MAINLY WEST OF MHT AND ORH.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE. MAIN CONCERN IS FOR ROUGH SEAS ON
S COASTAL WATERS WHERE SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED INTO TUE.

S/SW FLOW PREVAILS TODAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO BUILDING SEAS ON S
COASTAL WATERS...REACHING AS HIGH AS 5 OR 6 FT OFFSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALSO MAINTAIN PATCHY DENSE FOG THIS MORNING
ON S COASTAL WATERS.

SHOWERS/STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS WATERS THIS MORNING FROM LONG
ISLAND. SO FAR THESE STORMS HAVE PRODUCED FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
MAY PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS TO 35KT. POSSIBILITY OF A FEW MORE
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ON E MA WATERS.

COLD FRONT APPROACHES WATERS TONIGHT BUT EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF
PATCHY DENSE FOG...AT LEAST EARLY TONIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD TUE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES. SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDE OFFSHORE.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SEAS GENERALLY LESS THAN 5 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT MAY
APPROACH 5 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD...SOUTHWEST MIDWEEK SHIFTING TO
SOUTHEAST FRIDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/JWD
NEAR TERM...WTB/BELK/JWD
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/JWD
MARINE...WTB/JWD



000
FXUS61 KBOX 281539
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1139 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RATHER STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BY JULY STANDARDS WILL
MOVE ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK TODAY BEFORE HEADING INTO NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. IT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY POSSIBLE STRONG STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...BRINGING
DRIER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER...AS THE FRONT REMAINS STALLED OVER
THE MARITIMES AND NEW ENGLAND OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
*** FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON ***

1135 AM UPDATE...
JUST MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. SUNSHINE HAS
BROKEN THROUGH THE CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MA. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE THREAT OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

ONCE THIS INITIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS LIFTS N BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS.

MODELS INSISTENT THAT DRY SLOT WILL WORK ITS WAY UP COAST INTO SE
NEW ENGLAND...AND DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD RESIDE ACROSS INTERIOR AS
SEEN IN K-INDEX FIELDS. INSTABILITY IS IN QUESTION AS WE ARE NOT
CONFIDENT ON HOW MUCH CLEARING WILL OCCUR...IF AT ALL. BUT
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF HIGH 0-6KM SHEAR /OVER 35KT/ AND GOOD LOW
LEVEL TURNING IN FORECAST HODOGRAPHS SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR AT
LEAST FEW STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WINDS
AND HAIL ARE MAIN THREATS...BUT WE CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
WEAK TORNADO GIVEN HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...LOW LCL/S AND
PRESENCE OF CLOSED UPPER LOW. SYSTEM ALSO HAS HISTORY OF PRODUCING
A FEW WEAK TORNADOES THUS FAR AS WELL.

GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN AMOUNT OF HEATING...STAYED CLOSE TO MODEL
BLEND FOR HIGHS TODAY /70S TO AROUND 80/ WHICH ALSO MATCHES MIXING
TO 850 MB /10-11C/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH REGION TONIGHT BRINGING MUCH LESS HUMID
AIR BY DAYBREAK AS SKIES CLEAR. LIGHT WINDS WITH LEFTOVER MOISTURE
MAY LEAD TO PATCHY FOG ACROSS INTERIOR.

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND TUE...RESULTING IN
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. NOT MUCH OF AIRMASS CHANGE SO HIGHS ONCE AGAIN
SHOULD TOP OFF IN 70S TO AROUND 80 BUT WITH LOW HUMIDITY. WEAK
GRADIENT SUPPORTS AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ALONG BOTH COASTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...

MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A MERIDIONAL TYPE FLOW THROUGH THE
WEEK. THE FOUR LOBES OF THIS FLOW ARE THE GULF OF ALASKA
TROUGH...WESTERN NORTH AMERICA RIDGE...EASTERN NORTH AMERICA
TROUGH...AND WEST ATLANTIC RIDGE.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK COLD POOL IN EASTERN NO-AM
TROUGH...SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE DAILY INSTABILITY SHOWERS. ALSO
SHOWERS ALONG THE STALLED FRONT OFFSHORE.  THE CORE OF THE EASTERN
NO-AM TROUGH EJECTS NORTH THROUGH QUEBEC FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. BUT A
WEAKER TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES/MISS RIVER VALLEY OVER
THE WEEKEND.

THE SIMILARITY IN MODEL FIELDS FAVORS A BLEND OF AVAILABLE DATA.

THE DAILIES...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH THE UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST
AND UPPER RIDGE TO OUR EAST...EXPECT THE DEPARTED COLD FRONT TO
ALIGN WITH THE UPPER FLOW AND STALL. UPPER FLOW OVER NEW ENGLAND
WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MEANWHILE COLD POOL INSTABILITY
UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER NY AND ONTARIO WHILE NEW
ENGLAND IS UNDER THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET...A
SUBSIDENT ZONE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. FOR THE MOST PART THIS LOOKS LIKE A DRY WEATHER PERIOD
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S...TRENDING TO THE LOWER 60S FRIDAY.

THIS WILL MEAN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WELL OFFSHORE AND OVER
NY/ONTARIO. MAIN CONCERN FOR PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WOULD BE IF SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM THE UPPER TROUGH
WHICH COULD SLIDE ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES INTO THE CT VALLEY.  SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE AND THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET WILL
FAVOR SUBSIDENCE AND DRY WEATHER.  WE WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
IN THE BERKS WEDNESDAY AND WEST OF MHT-ORH-IJD THURSDAY-FRIDAY...AND
CHANCE POPS ALONG/WEST OF THE CT VALLEY THURSDAY-FRIDAY. PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...AS THE CORE OF THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS
NORTH...EXPECT THE ATLANTIC HIGH TO SHIFT A LITTLE TO THE WEST.
THIS WOULD PUSH THE OFFSHORE FRONT WEST CLOSER TO THE COAST AND
BRING AN INCREASE IN THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS TODAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE TONIGHT AND
MONDAY.

SCATTERED IFR IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...OTHERWISE VFR DEVELOPING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MA AND RI.

SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOW REDEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR AFTER
18Z. EXPECT MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN ANY TSTMS. BEST CHANCE FOR TSTMS
WILL BE IN AREAS ALONG/WEST/NORTH OF I-495. THERE WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE STORMS IN THIS AREA TO PRODUCE STRONG OR
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR AFTER 00Z TUE...ALTHOUGH PATCHY
MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN FOG. VFR TUE WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR CIGS/VSBYS...FAIRLY CONFIDENT
ON IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER 15Z. TS SHOULD REMAIN W OF AIRPORT
18Z-22Z.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LIFR CIGS/VSBYS...FAIRLY
CONFIDENT IN IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER 13Z. TS MOST LIKELY 18Z-
22Z.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VFR. AREAS OF IFR IN EARLY MORNING FOG EACH DAY.  MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSTMS MAINLY WEST OF MHT AND ORH.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE. MAIN CONCERN IS FOR ROUGH SEAS ON
S COASTAL WATERS WHERE SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED INTO TUE.

S/SW FLOW PREVAILS TODAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO BUILDING SEAS ON S
COASTAL WATERS...REACHING AS HIGH AS 5 OR 6 FT OFFSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALSO MAINTAIN PATCHY DENSE FOG THIS MORNING
ON S COASTAL WATERS.

SHOWERS/STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS WATERS THIS MORNING FROM LONG
ISLAND. SO FAR THESE STORMS HAVE PRODUCED FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
MAY PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS TO 35KT. POSSIBILITY OF A FEW MORE
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ON E MA WATERS.

COLD FRONT APPROACHES WATERS TONIGHT BUT EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF
PATCHY DENSE FOG...AT LEAST EARLY TONIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD TUE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES. SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDE OFFSHORE.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SEAS GENERALLY LESS THAN 5 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT MAY
APPROACH 5 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD...SOUTHWEST MIDWEEK SHIFTING TO
SOUTHEAST FRIDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/JWD
NEAR TERM...WTB/BELK/JWD
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/JWD
MARINE...WTB/JWD



000
FXUS61 KALY 281519
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1119 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK...WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST TO NEAR NORTHERN MAINE BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL BRING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA
TODAY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY FAIR AND
COOL WEATHER ON TUESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY FAIR AND COOL
WEATHER IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY CAUSE A FEW
AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1115 AM...STEADIEST RAIN/SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN
HERKIMER...HAMILTON AND NORTHWEST WARREN COUNTY. ALSO SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER LITCHFIELD...BERKSHIRE BENNINGTON AND WINDHAM
COUNTIES. ANOTHER AREA OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS STARTING TO DEVELOP
JUST WEST OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA IN CENTRAL NY. NEAREST
LIGHTNING IS TO OUR WEST...JUST SOUTH OF SYRACUSE NY. BREAKS IN
OVERCAST STARTING TO DEVELOP FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD. GOING FORECAST
HAS TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 70S OVER MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
LITCHFIELD COUNTY LATER TODAY. BASED ON 12Z ALBANY/BUFFALO
SOUNDINGS...THIS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO TRIGGER AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS. LATEST HI RES MODELS SHOW STORMS DEVELOPING BETWEEN
1 AND 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MOST OF THE ACTION OVER BY
10 PM.

MINOR CHANGES TO FORECAST FOR TODAY BASED ON
OBSERVATIONS...SATELLITE PICTURES AND RADAR ECHOES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM`S COLD FRONT...THE THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END. WILL HAVE LINGERING THREAT OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE LOW IS DRAWN NORTHWARD AS THE
SHORT WAVE BECOMES ABSORBED BY THE LARGE CUT OFF LOW CENTERED NEAR
HUDSON`S BAY CANADA. .

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM COOLER AIR WILL BE DRAWN INTO THE
REGION ON NORTHWEST FLOW. INTO MID WEEK THE REGION WILL BE UNDER A
LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH PIECES OF ENERGY SPINNING ABOUT THE LARGE
CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN CANADA...WHICH WILL BE HARD TO TIME. WHILE
AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT
THE REGION SHOULD BE BETWEEN SHORT WAVES TUESDAY SO EXPECTING A DRY
DAY. HAVE POPS IN FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY MAINLY TO THE WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY BY 5 TO 10
DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

A LARGE CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN SITUATED JUST TO OUR
NORTHWEST OVER SOUTHERN CANADA TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE WEAKENING...IT WILL REMAIN
CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA TO ALLOW FOR CYCLONIC FLOW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ESP DURING THE DIURNALLY
FAVORED AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO
NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S FOR VALLEY
AREAS...AND MINS GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY START TO LIFT OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST...ANOTHER IMPULSE DIVING OUT OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST FOR THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL STRENGTHEN THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE CONUS...WHILE A STRONG RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE WESTERN US. THE RESULT WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. AGAIN...THE HIGHEST
COVERAGE/BEST CHANCE WILL BE DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING.  TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...WITH HIGHS RIGHT
AROUND 80 AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CHANGEABLE FLYING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS OVER
THE NEXT 12 HOURS THANKS TO A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA.

RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING...AND ARE DEPARTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.  THIS IS
ALLOWING FOR A REDUCTION IN FLYING CONDITIONS...ESP AT KPSF.

THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK LATER IN THE MORNING WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING BACK TO VFR...BUT ANOTHER LINE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PRESSURE AND
IT/S COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS WITH THIS ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON...ESP FOR THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS.

BEHIND THIS FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL TRANSPORT COOLER AND LESS
HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL END THE THREAT FOR
PRECIP...WITH SURFACE WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS FOR THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.  SOME LINGERING
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT...BUT FLYING
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR FOR ALL SITES. BY LATE TONIGHT...CLOUDS
SHOULD SCATTERED OUT AND WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS A
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK STATE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD.
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST TONIGHT ALLOWING COOLER
AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE
SURFACE AS WE HEAD THROUGH MID WEEK...HOWEVER ALOFT DISTURBANCES
WILL PASS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS A
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK STATE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH SOME STORMS AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS
VERY MOIST WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. HAVE CONTINUED WITH
ENHANCED WORDING IN FORECAST FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTAL ARE EXPECTED MAINLY NORTH OF I-90 WITH
AROUND AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
MAY RESULT IN SOME FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
AREAS WHICH HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED A ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE THE MOST VULNERABLE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND
NEAR TERM...SND
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...SND/FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA








000
FXUS61 KALY 281519
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1119 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK...WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST TO NEAR NORTHERN MAINE BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL BRING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA
TODAY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY FAIR AND
COOL WEATHER ON TUESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY FAIR AND COOL
WEATHER IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY CAUSE A FEW
AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1115 AM...STEADIEST RAIN/SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN
HERKIMER...HAMILTON AND NORTHWEST WARREN COUNTY. ALSO SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER LITCHFIELD...BERKSHIRE BENNINGTON AND WINDHAM
COUNTIES. ANOTHER AREA OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS STARTING TO DEVELOP
JUST WEST OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA IN CENTRAL NY. NEAREST
LIGHTNING IS TO OUR WEST...JUST SOUTH OF SYRACUSE NY. BREAKS IN
OVERCAST STARTING TO DEVELOP FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD. GOING FORECAST
HAS TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 70S OVER MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
LITCHFIELD COUNTY LATER TODAY. BASED ON 12Z ALBANY/BUFFALO
SOUNDINGS...THIS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO TRIGGER AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS. LATEST HI RES MODELS SHOW STORMS DEVELOPING BETWEEN
1 AND 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MOST OF THE ACTION OVER BY
10 PM.

MINOR CHANGES TO FORECAST FOR TODAY BASED ON
OBSERVATIONS...SATELLITE PICTURES AND RADAR ECHOES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM`S COLD FRONT...THE THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END. WILL HAVE LINGERING THREAT OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE LOW IS DRAWN NORTHWARD AS THE
SHORT WAVE BECOMES ABSORBED BY THE LARGE CUT OFF LOW CENTERED NEAR
HUDSON`S BAY CANADA. .

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM COOLER AIR WILL BE DRAWN INTO THE
REGION ON NORTHWEST FLOW. INTO MID WEEK THE REGION WILL BE UNDER A
LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH PIECES OF ENERGY SPINNING ABOUT THE LARGE
CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN CANADA...WHICH WILL BE HARD TO TIME. WHILE
AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT
THE REGION SHOULD BE BETWEEN SHORT WAVES TUESDAY SO EXPECTING A DRY
DAY. HAVE POPS IN FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY MAINLY TO THE WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY BY 5 TO 10
DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

A LARGE CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN SITUATED JUST TO OUR
NORTHWEST OVER SOUTHERN CANADA TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE WEAKENING...IT WILL REMAIN
CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA TO ALLOW FOR CYCLONIC FLOW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ESP DURING THE DIURNALLY
FAVORED AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO
NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S FOR VALLEY
AREAS...AND MINS GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY START TO LIFT OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST...ANOTHER IMPULSE DIVING OUT OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST FOR THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL STRENGTHEN THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE CONUS...WHILE A STRONG RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE WESTERN US. THE RESULT WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. AGAIN...THE HIGHEST
COVERAGE/BEST CHANCE WILL BE DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING.  TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...WITH HIGHS RIGHT
AROUND 80 AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CHANGEABLE FLYING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS OVER
THE NEXT 12 HOURS THANKS TO A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA.

RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING...AND ARE DEPARTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.  THIS IS
ALLOWING FOR A REDUCTION IN FLYING CONDITIONS...ESP AT KPSF.

THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK LATER IN THE MORNING WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING BACK TO VFR...BUT ANOTHER LINE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PRESSURE AND
IT/S COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS WITH THIS ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON...ESP FOR THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS.

BEHIND THIS FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL TRANSPORT COOLER AND LESS
HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL END THE THREAT FOR
PRECIP...WITH SURFACE WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS FOR THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.  SOME LINGERING
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT...BUT FLYING
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR FOR ALL SITES. BY LATE TONIGHT...CLOUDS
SHOULD SCATTERED OUT AND WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS A
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK STATE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD.
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST TONIGHT ALLOWING COOLER
AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE
SURFACE AS WE HEAD THROUGH MID WEEK...HOWEVER ALOFT DISTURBANCES
WILL PASS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS A
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK STATE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH SOME STORMS AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS
VERY MOIST WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. HAVE CONTINUED WITH
ENHANCED WORDING IN FORECAST FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTAL ARE EXPECTED MAINLY NORTH OF I-90 WITH
AROUND AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
MAY RESULT IN SOME FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
AREAS WHICH HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED A ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE THE MOST VULNERABLE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND
NEAR TERM...SND
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...SND/FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA







000
FXUS61 KOKX 281443
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1043 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK THROUGH NEW ENGLAND TODAY
AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THE COLD FRONT PUSHES
EAST TONIGHT...SETTLING WELL OFFSHORE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES AGAIN FOR NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
999 HPA SFC LOW NEAR CORTLAND NY AS OF 10 AM. COLD FRONT IS
ENTERING OUR WESTERN FCST AREA IN JERSEY. A LOT OF CLOUD COVER
SEEN IN LOWER LEVELS ON VISIBLE IMAGERY WITH DRY MID AND HIGH
LEVELS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. UPPER LOW NEAR ROCHESTER WITH
CONVECTION/HEAVY RAIN.

CAP AROUND 800 HPA SHOULD KEEP ANYTHING FROM POPPING BEFORE
AFTERNOON AND THUS REMOVED POPS UNTIL AFTERNOON. ONCE CAP
WEAKENS...CAPE IS NARROW WITH LOTS OF DRY AIR ALOFT AND CONVECTIVE
ALLOW MODELS SUGGESTING SHOWERS ARE SCATTERED (AT BEST) IN NATURE
THIS AFTN -HAVE LOWERED POPS. FOCUS STILL TO THE NORTH WITH
GREATER INSTABILITY EXISTS CLOSER THE THE UPPER LOW PASSING TOT HE
NORTH.

WITH LITTLE IF ANY DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND LIFTING LCL`S, THINK THE
THREAT FOR SEVERE IS LOW. WILL REMOVE WORDING FROM ALL BUT EXTREME
NORTHERN ZONES.

MAIN WX STORY IS THE LATE JULY WINDS WHICH WILL GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH
AS WE MIX UP TO 800-850 HPA.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS
ALONG THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FACING BEACHES DURING THE DAY TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS/TSTMS DIMINISH IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY
THIS EVENING AS POTENT SHORTWAVE PIVOTS NORTHEASTWARD. EVENING
WINDS DIMINISH AS SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR. LOW TEMPS SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE LOWER/MIDDLE 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR TO THE LOWER 60S
NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SOUTH TUES THROUGH MID WEEK WITH A CLOSED
LOW HOVERING JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. WITH MINIMAL PROGRESSIVE
MOVEMENT ALOFT...THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST...BUT THEN
STALL OFFSHORE. IT SHOULD PUSH JUST FAR ENOUGH EAST TO HAVE MINIMAL
IMPACT THROUGH THE COMING WEEK...BUT WILL COME BACK INTO THE PICTURE
FOR THE COMING WEEKEND. AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL MAINTAIN HOLD OF THE REGION
THROUGH THURS. SHORTWAVE ROTATING ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE TROUGH
COULD TRIGGER AN ISO SHOWER/TSTM TUES AFTN OVER FAR NORTH AND
WESTERN EDGES OF THE AREA...BUT WITH A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS MOVING
IN...COULD LIKELY WILL END UP BEING A DRY DAY. THE NEXT MENTION
OF PCPN COMES THURS AFTN WITH A RETURN FLOW SETTING UP OVER THE
REGION...INJECTING IN A SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST AIR MASS. THE CLOSED
LOW ALOFT FINALLY PUSHES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...THOUGH A LONGWAVE
TROUGH STILL WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK. THE PATTERN STILL BRINGS THROUGH MULTIPLE
SHORTWAVES THURS-FRI...EACH BRINGING A SLIGHT CHC IN TRIGGERING AN
ISO SHOWER OR TSTM.

LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG THE STALLED FRONT BY THIS WEEKEND...RIDING
THE FRONT WHILE SLOWLY APPROACHING THE AREA. GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS
BRINGS THE SFC LOW NEAR THE TRI STATE AREA BY SUN MORNING. ENOUGH
FORCING ALOFT ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD
COMBINE WITH THE SFC LOW TO PRODUCE SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS...ESP FOR
LATER SAT THROUGH SUN.

TEMPS REMAIN NEAR STEADY THROUGH THE COMING WEEK...A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE NW TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
BUILDING FROM THE WEST.

MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO BURN OFF THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS
DUE TOT HE HEATING OF THE DAY. MAINLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED FOR THE
REST OF THE DAY...BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR WIDELY
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLD TSTM THAT COULD
BRING BRIEF MVFR OR LOWER CONDS TO AREAS NW OF NYC METRO.

S WINDS WILL BECOME SW AND INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON TO 10-15 KT
WITH GUSTS 15-20 KT...THEN VEER W THIS EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH AND INCREASE FURTHER TO 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS 25-28
KT.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS THIS AFTERNOON MIGHT NOT BE AS STRONG
AS FORECASTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS THIS AFTERNOON MIGHT NOT BE AS STRONG
AS FORECASTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CONDS COULD LAST UNTIL 16Z. WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON MIGHT NOT BE AS STRONG AS FORECASTED.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS THIS AFTERNOON MIGHT NOT BE AS STRONG
AS FORECASTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS THIS AFTERNOON MIGHT NOT BE AS STRONG
AS FORECASTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CONDS COULD LAST UNTIL 16Z-17Z. WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON MIGHT NOT BE AS STRONG AS FORECASTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUE THROUGH FRI...
.TUE-THU...VFR.
.FRI...AN ISOLD SHOWER OR TSTM COULD PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR OR LOWER
CONDS...OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST LATER IN THE DAY
BEHIND A COLD FRONT. GUSTS COULD BE QUITE STRONG FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING...POSSIBLY JUST
SHY OF GALE FORCE FOR A SHORT TIME.

THEN WINDS DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. WILL EXTEND THE SCA THROUGH TONIGHT
FOR THE OCEAN WATERS...AND UNTIL MIDNIGHT ELSEWHERE.

SEAS ON THE OCEAN ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED INTO TUES MORNING.
AS THE WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO THE NW...SEAS WILL BEGIN TO
SUBSIDE...WITH SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY TUES AFTN. SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS THEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...WITH A POSSIBLE RETURN TO 25 KT GUSTS AND 5 FT SEAS OVER THE
WEEKEND DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PW
NEAR TERM...TONGUE/PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...GOODMAN
MARINE...PW
HYDROLOGY...












000
FXUS61 KOKX 281443
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1043 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK THROUGH NEW ENGLAND TODAY
AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THE COLD FRONT PUSHES
EAST TONIGHT...SETTLING WELL OFFSHORE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES AGAIN FOR NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
999 HPA SFC LOW NEAR CORTLAND NY AS OF 10 AM. COLD FRONT IS
ENTERING OUR WESTERN FCST AREA IN JERSEY. A LOT OF CLOUD COVER
SEEN IN LOWER LEVELS ON VISIBLE IMAGERY WITH DRY MID AND HIGH
LEVELS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. UPPER LOW NEAR ROCHESTER WITH
CONVECTION/HEAVY RAIN.

CAP AROUND 800 HPA SHOULD KEEP ANYTHING FROM POPPING BEFORE
AFTERNOON AND THUS REMOVED POPS UNTIL AFTERNOON. ONCE CAP
WEAKENS...CAPE IS NARROW WITH LOTS OF DRY AIR ALOFT AND CONVECTIVE
ALLOW MODELS SUGGESTING SHOWERS ARE SCATTERED (AT BEST) IN NATURE
THIS AFTN -HAVE LOWERED POPS. FOCUS STILL TO THE NORTH WITH
GREATER INSTABILITY EXISTS CLOSER THE THE UPPER LOW PASSING TOT HE
NORTH.

WITH LITTLE IF ANY DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND LIFTING LCL`S, THINK THE
THREAT FOR SEVERE IS LOW. WILL REMOVE WORDING FROM ALL BUT EXTREME
NORTHERN ZONES.

MAIN WX STORY IS THE LATE JULY WINDS WHICH WILL GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH
AS WE MIX UP TO 800-850 HPA.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS
ALONG THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FACING BEACHES DURING THE DAY TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS/TSTMS DIMINISH IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY
THIS EVENING AS POTENT SHORTWAVE PIVOTS NORTHEASTWARD. EVENING
WINDS DIMINISH AS SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR. LOW TEMPS SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE LOWER/MIDDLE 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR TO THE LOWER 60S
NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SOUTH TUES THROUGH MID WEEK WITH A CLOSED
LOW HOVERING JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. WITH MINIMAL PROGRESSIVE
MOVEMENT ALOFT...THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST...BUT THEN
STALL OFFSHORE. IT SHOULD PUSH JUST FAR ENOUGH EAST TO HAVE MINIMAL
IMPACT THROUGH THE COMING WEEK...BUT WILL COME BACK INTO THE PICTURE
FOR THE COMING WEEKEND. AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL MAINTAIN HOLD OF THE REGION
THROUGH THURS. SHORTWAVE ROTATING ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE TROUGH
COULD TRIGGER AN ISO SHOWER/TSTM TUES AFTN OVER FAR NORTH AND
WESTERN EDGES OF THE AREA...BUT WITH A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS MOVING
IN...COULD LIKELY WILL END UP BEING A DRY DAY. THE NEXT MENTION
OF PCPN COMES THURS AFTN WITH A RETURN FLOW SETTING UP OVER THE
REGION...INJECTING IN A SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST AIR MASS. THE CLOSED
LOW ALOFT FINALLY PUSHES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...THOUGH A LONGWAVE
TROUGH STILL WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK. THE PATTERN STILL BRINGS THROUGH MULTIPLE
SHORTWAVES THURS-FRI...EACH BRINGING A SLIGHT CHC IN TRIGGERING AN
ISO SHOWER OR TSTM.

LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG THE STALLED FRONT BY THIS WEEKEND...RIDING
THE FRONT WHILE SLOWLY APPROACHING THE AREA. GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS
BRINGS THE SFC LOW NEAR THE TRI STATE AREA BY SUN MORNING. ENOUGH
FORCING ALOFT ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD
COMBINE WITH THE SFC LOW TO PRODUCE SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS...ESP FOR
LATER SAT THROUGH SUN.

TEMPS REMAIN NEAR STEADY THROUGH THE COMING WEEK...A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE NW TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
BUILDING FROM THE WEST.

MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO BURN OFF THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS
DUE TOT HE HEATING OF THE DAY. MAINLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED FOR THE
REST OF THE DAY...BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR WIDELY
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLD TSTM THAT COULD
BRING BRIEF MVFR OR LOWER CONDS TO AREAS NW OF NYC METRO.

S WINDS WILL BECOME SW AND INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON TO 10-15 KT
WITH GUSTS 15-20 KT...THEN VEER W THIS EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH AND INCREASE FURTHER TO 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS 25-28
KT.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS THIS AFTERNOON MIGHT NOT BE AS STRONG
AS FORECASTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS THIS AFTERNOON MIGHT NOT BE AS STRONG
AS FORECASTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CONDS COULD LAST UNTIL 16Z. WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON MIGHT NOT BE AS STRONG AS FORECASTED.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS THIS AFTERNOON MIGHT NOT BE AS STRONG
AS FORECASTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS THIS AFTERNOON MIGHT NOT BE AS STRONG
AS FORECASTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CONDS COULD LAST UNTIL 16Z-17Z. WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON MIGHT NOT BE AS STRONG AS FORECASTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUE THROUGH FRI...
.TUE-THU...VFR.
.FRI...AN ISOLD SHOWER OR TSTM COULD PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR OR LOWER
CONDS...OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST LATER IN THE DAY
BEHIND A COLD FRONT. GUSTS COULD BE QUITE STRONG FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING...POSSIBLY JUST
SHY OF GALE FORCE FOR A SHORT TIME.

THEN WINDS DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. WILL EXTEND THE SCA THROUGH TONIGHT
FOR THE OCEAN WATERS...AND UNTIL MIDNIGHT ELSEWHERE.

SEAS ON THE OCEAN ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED INTO TUES MORNING.
AS THE WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO THE NW...SEAS WILL BEGIN TO
SUBSIDE...WITH SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY TUES AFTN. SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS THEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...WITH A POSSIBLE RETURN TO 25 KT GUSTS AND 5 FT SEAS OVER THE
WEEKEND DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PW
NEAR TERM...TONGUE/PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...GOODMAN
MARINE...PW
HYDROLOGY...












000
FXUS61 KOKX 281443
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1043 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK THROUGH NEW ENGLAND TODAY
AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THE COLD FRONT PUSHES
EAST TONIGHT...SETTLING WELL OFFSHORE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES AGAIN FOR NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
999 HPA SFC LOW NEAR CORTLAND NY AS OF 10 AM. COLD FRONT IS
ENTERING OUR WESTERN FCST AREA IN JERSEY. A LOT OF CLOUD COVER
SEEN IN LOWER LEVELS ON VISIBLE IMAGERY WITH DRY MID AND HIGH
LEVELS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. UPPER LOW NEAR ROCHESTER WITH
CONVECTION/HEAVY RAIN.

CAP AROUND 800 HPA SHOULD KEEP ANYTHING FROM POPPING BEFORE
AFTERNOON AND THUS REMOVED POPS UNTIL AFTERNOON. ONCE CAP
WEAKENS...CAPE IS NARROW WITH LOTS OF DRY AIR ALOFT AND CONVECTIVE
ALLOW MODELS SUGGESTING SHOWERS ARE SCATTERED (AT BEST) IN NATURE
THIS AFTN -HAVE LOWERED POPS. FOCUS STILL TO THE NORTH WITH
GREATER INSTABILITY EXISTS CLOSER THE THE UPPER LOW PASSING TOT HE
NORTH.

WITH LITTLE IF ANY DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND LIFTING LCL`S, THINK THE
THREAT FOR SEVERE IS LOW. WILL REMOVE WORDING FROM ALL BUT EXTREME
NORTHERN ZONES.

MAIN WX STORY IS THE LATE JULY WINDS WHICH WILL GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH
AS WE MIX UP TO 800-850 HPA.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS
ALONG THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FACING BEACHES DURING THE DAY TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS/TSTMS DIMINISH IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY
THIS EVENING AS POTENT SHORTWAVE PIVOTS NORTHEASTWARD. EVENING
WINDS DIMINISH AS SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR. LOW TEMPS SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE LOWER/MIDDLE 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR TO THE LOWER 60S
NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SOUTH TUES THROUGH MID WEEK WITH A CLOSED
LOW HOVERING JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. WITH MINIMAL PROGRESSIVE
MOVEMENT ALOFT...THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST...BUT THEN
STALL OFFSHORE. IT SHOULD PUSH JUST FAR ENOUGH EAST TO HAVE MINIMAL
IMPACT THROUGH THE COMING WEEK...BUT WILL COME BACK INTO THE PICTURE
FOR THE COMING WEEKEND. AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL MAINTAIN HOLD OF THE REGION
THROUGH THURS. SHORTWAVE ROTATING ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE TROUGH
COULD TRIGGER AN ISO SHOWER/TSTM TUES AFTN OVER FAR NORTH AND
WESTERN EDGES OF THE AREA...BUT WITH A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS MOVING
IN...COULD LIKELY WILL END UP BEING A DRY DAY. THE NEXT MENTION
OF PCPN COMES THURS AFTN WITH A RETURN FLOW SETTING UP OVER THE
REGION...INJECTING IN A SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST AIR MASS. THE CLOSED
LOW ALOFT FINALLY PUSHES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...THOUGH A LONGWAVE
TROUGH STILL WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK. THE PATTERN STILL BRINGS THROUGH MULTIPLE
SHORTWAVES THURS-FRI...EACH BRINGING A SLIGHT CHC IN TRIGGERING AN
ISO SHOWER OR TSTM.

LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG THE STALLED FRONT BY THIS WEEKEND...RIDING
THE FRONT WHILE SLOWLY APPROACHING THE AREA. GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS
BRINGS THE SFC LOW NEAR THE TRI STATE AREA BY SUN MORNING. ENOUGH
FORCING ALOFT ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD
COMBINE WITH THE SFC LOW TO PRODUCE SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS...ESP FOR
LATER SAT THROUGH SUN.

TEMPS REMAIN NEAR STEADY THROUGH THE COMING WEEK...A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE NW TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
BUILDING FROM THE WEST.

MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO BURN OFF THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS
DUE TOT HE HEATING OF THE DAY. MAINLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED FOR THE
REST OF THE DAY...BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR WIDELY
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLD TSTM THAT COULD
BRING BRIEF MVFR OR LOWER CONDS TO AREAS NW OF NYC METRO.

S WINDS WILL BECOME SW AND INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON TO 10-15 KT
WITH GUSTS 15-20 KT...THEN VEER W THIS EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH AND INCREASE FURTHER TO 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS 25-28
KT.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS THIS AFTERNOON MIGHT NOT BE AS STRONG
AS FORECASTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS THIS AFTERNOON MIGHT NOT BE AS STRONG
AS FORECASTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CONDS COULD LAST UNTIL 16Z. WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON MIGHT NOT BE AS STRONG AS FORECASTED.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS THIS AFTERNOON MIGHT NOT BE AS STRONG
AS FORECASTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS THIS AFTERNOON MIGHT NOT BE AS STRONG
AS FORECASTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CONDS COULD LAST UNTIL 16Z-17Z. WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON MIGHT NOT BE AS STRONG AS FORECASTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUE THROUGH FRI...
.TUE-THU...VFR.
.FRI...AN ISOLD SHOWER OR TSTM COULD PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR OR LOWER
CONDS...OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST LATER IN THE DAY
BEHIND A COLD FRONT. GUSTS COULD BE QUITE STRONG FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING...POSSIBLY JUST
SHY OF GALE FORCE FOR A SHORT TIME.

THEN WINDS DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. WILL EXTEND THE SCA THROUGH TONIGHT
FOR THE OCEAN WATERS...AND UNTIL MIDNIGHT ELSEWHERE.

SEAS ON THE OCEAN ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED INTO TUES MORNING.
AS THE WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO THE NW...SEAS WILL BEGIN TO
SUBSIDE...WITH SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY TUES AFTN. SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS THEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...WITH A POSSIBLE RETURN TO 25 KT GUSTS AND 5 FT SEAS OVER THE
WEEKEND DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PW
NEAR TERM...TONGUE/PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...GOODMAN
MARINE...PW
HYDROLOGY...












000
FXUS61 KOKX 281443
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1043 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK THROUGH NEW ENGLAND TODAY
AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THE COLD FRONT PUSHES
EAST TONIGHT...SETTLING WELL OFFSHORE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES AGAIN FOR NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
999 HPA SFC LOW NEAR CORTLAND NY AS OF 10 AM. COLD FRONT IS
ENTERING OUR WESTERN FCST AREA IN JERSEY. A LOT OF CLOUD COVER
SEEN IN LOWER LEVELS ON VISIBLE IMAGERY WITH DRY MID AND HIGH
LEVELS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. UPPER LOW NEAR ROCHESTER WITH
CONVECTION/HEAVY RAIN.

CAP AROUND 800 HPA SHOULD KEEP ANYTHING FROM POPPING BEFORE
AFTERNOON AND THUS REMOVED POPS UNTIL AFTERNOON. ONCE CAP
WEAKENS...CAPE IS NARROW WITH LOTS OF DRY AIR ALOFT AND CONVECTIVE
ALLOW MODELS SUGGESTING SHOWERS ARE SCATTERED (AT BEST) IN NATURE
THIS AFTN -HAVE LOWERED POPS. FOCUS STILL TO THE NORTH WITH
GREATER INSTABILITY EXISTS CLOSER THE THE UPPER LOW PASSING TOT HE
NORTH.

WITH LITTLE IF ANY DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND LIFTING LCL`S, THINK THE
THREAT FOR SEVERE IS LOW. WILL REMOVE WORDING FROM ALL BUT EXTREME
NORTHERN ZONES.

MAIN WX STORY IS THE LATE JULY WINDS WHICH WILL GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH
AS WE MIX UP TO 800-850 HPA.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS
ALONG THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FACING BEACHES DURING THE DAY TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS/TSTMS DIMINISH IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY
THIS EVENING AS POTENT SHORTWAVE PIVOTS NORTHEASTWARD. EVENING
WINDS DIMINISH AS SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR. LOW TEMPS SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE LOWER/MIDDLE 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR TO THE LOWER 60S
NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SOUTH TUES THROUGH MID WEEK WITH A CLOSED
LOW HOVERING JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. WITH MINIMAL PROGRESSIVE
MOVEMENT ALOFT...THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST...BUT THEN
STALL OFFSHORE. IT SHOULD PUSH JUST FAR ENOUGH EAST TO HAVE MINIMAL
IMPACT THROUGH THE COMING WEEK...BUT WILL COME BACK INTO THE PICTURE
FOR THE COMING WEEKEND. AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL MAINTAIN HOLD OF THE REGION
THROUGH THURS. SHORTWAVE ROTATING ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE TROUGH
COULD TRIGGER AN ISO SHOWER/TSTM TUES AFTN OVER FAR NORTH AND
WESTERN EDGES OF THE AREA...BUT WITH A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS MOVING
IN...COULD LIKELY WILL END UP BEING A DRY DAY. THE NEXT MENTION
OF PCPN COMES THURS AFTN WITH A RETURN FLOW SETTING UP OVER THE
REGION...INJECTING IN A SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST AIR MASS. THE CLOSED
LOW ALOFT FINALLY PUSHES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...THOUGH A LONGWAVE
TROUGH STILL WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK. THE PATTERN STILL BRINGS THROUGH MULTIPLE
SHORTWAVES THURS-FRI...EACH BRINGING A SLIGHT CHC IN TRIGGERING AN
ISO SHOWER OR TSTM.

LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG THE STALLED FRONT BY THIS WEEKEND...RIDING
THE FRONT WHILE SLOWLY APPROACHING THE AREA. GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS
BRINGS THE SFC LOW NEAR THE TRI STATE AREA BY SUN MORNING. ENOUGH
FORCING ALOFT ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD
COMBINE WITH THE SFC LOW TO PRODUCE SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS...ESP FOR
LATER SAT THROUGH SUN.

TEMPS REMAIN NEAR STEADY THROUGH THE COMING WEEK...A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE NW TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
BUILDING FROM THE WEST.

MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO BURN OFF THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS
DUE TOT HE HEATING OF THE DAY. MAINLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED FOR THE
REST OF THE DAY...BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR WIDELY
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLD TSTM THAT COULD
BRING BRIEF MVFR OR LOWER CONDS TO AREAS NW OF NYC METRO.

S WINDS WILL BECOME SW AND INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON TO 10-15 KT
WITH GUSTS 15-20 KT...THEN VEER W THIS EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH AND INCREASE FURTHER TO 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS 25-28
KT.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS THIS AFTERNOON MIGHT NOT BE AS STRONG
AS FORECASTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS THIS AFTERNOON MIGHT NOT BE AS STRONG
AS FORECASTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CONDS COULD LAST UNTIL 16Z. WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON MIGHT NOT BE AS STRONG AS FORECASTED.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS THIS AFTERNOON MIGHT NOT BE AS STRONG
AS FORECASTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS THIS AFTERNOON MIGHT NOT BE AS STRONG
AS FORECASTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CONDS COULD LAST UNTIL 16Z-17Z. WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON MIGHT NOT BE AS STRONG AS FORECASTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUE THROUGH FRI...
.TUE-THU...VFR.
.FRI...AN ISOLD SHOWER OR TSTM COULD PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR OR LOWER
CONDS...OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST LATER IN THE DAY
BEHIND A COLD FRONT. GUSTS COULD BE QUITE STRONG FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING...POSSIBLY JUST
SHY OF GALE FORCE FOR A SHORT TIME.

THEN WINDS DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. WILL EXTEND THE SCA THROUGH TONIGHT
FOR THE OCEAN WATERS...AND UNTIL MIDNIGHT ELSEWHERE.

SEAS ON THE OCEAN ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED INTO TUES MORNING.
AS THE WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO THE NW...SEAS WILL BEGIN TO
SUBSIDE...WITH SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY TUES AFTN. SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS THEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...WITH A POSSIBLE RETURN TO 25 KT GUSTS AND 5 FT SEAS OVER THE
WEEKEND DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PW
NEAR TERM...TONGUE/PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...GOODMAN
MARINE...PW
HYDROLOGY...












000
FXUS61 KALY 281304
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
904 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK TODAY...WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST TO NEAR NORTHERN MAINE BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL BRING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA
TODAY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY FAIR AND
COOL WEATHER ON TUESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY FAIR AND COOL
WEATHER IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY CAUSE A FEW
AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UNSEASONABLE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.

AS OF 855 AM...UPDATE TO REMOVE LIKELY POPS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90
IN LINE WITH RADAR ECHOES. CHANGED TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MORNING
HOURS WITH HIGHER POPS DURING AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AND ALONG
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ALSO ADJUSTED HOURLY
TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS BASED ON CURRENT OBS.

12Z ALBANY UPPER AIR SOUNDING SHOWS SOME POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY IN AREAS THAT SEE
SUNSHINE DEVELOP. WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVERHEAD THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY LOOKS TO HAVE THE MOST
POTENTIAL FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER LATER TODAY.

PREVIOUS...
THE SURFACE LOW IS WELL FORECAST TO PASS DIRECTLY OVER THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY. IT WILL STRENGTHEN A BIT MORE AS IT MOVES EASTWARD
DRAGGING ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH. THE STRONG UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION AND HEIGHT FALLS WILL OCCUR TODAY AS THE VIGOROUS
SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO AND OVER THE REGION ALONG WITH THE COLD
FRONT. THE LIMITING FACTOR TODAY WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY
WE WILL ACHIEVE DUE TO CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER THE
AIRMASS IS VERY MOIST WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. IN ADDITION
VEERING OF THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND STRENGTHENING OF WINDS WITH
HEIGHT WILL SUPPORT A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS
TO ACQUIRE ROTATION OR ORGANIZE INTO LINEAR SEGMENTS. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE REGION UNDER "SEE TEXT" DUE TO THIS
CONDITIONAL THREAT. HAVE CONTINUED WITH ENHANCED WORDING OF GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THUNDERSTORMS TODAY IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM`S COLD FRONT...THE THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END. WILL HAVE LINGERING THREAT OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE LOW IS DRAWN NORTHWARD AS THE
SHORT WAVE BECOMES ABSORBED BY THE LARGE CUT OFF LOW CENTERED NEAR
HUDSON`S BAY CANADA. .

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM COOLER AIR WILL BE DRAWN INTO THE
REGION ON NORTHWEST FLOW. INTO MID WEEK THE REGION WILL BE UNDER A
LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH PIECES OF ENERGY SPINNING ABOUT THE LARGE
CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN CANADA...WHICH WILL BE HARD TO TIME. WHILE
AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT
THE REGION SHOULD BE BETWEEN SHORT WAVES TUESDAY SO EXPECTING A DRY
DAY. HAVE POPS IN FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY MAINLY TO THE WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY BY 5 TO 10
DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

A LARGE CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN SITUATED JUST TO OUR
NORTHWEST OVER SOUTHERN CANADA TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE WEAKENING...IT WILL REMAIN
CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA TO ALLOW FOR CYCLONIC FLOW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ESP DURING THE DIURNALLY
FAVORED AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO
NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S FOR VALLEY
AREAS...AND MINS GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY START TO LIFT OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST...ANOTHER IMPULSE DIVING OUT OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST FOR THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL STRENGTHEN THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE CONUS...WHILE A STRONG RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE WESTERN US. THE RESULT WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. AGAIN...THE HIGHEST
COVERAGE/BEST CHANCE WILL BE DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING.  TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...WITH HIGHS RIGHT
AROUND 80 AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CHANGEABLE FLYING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS OVER
THE NEXT 12 HOURS THANKS TO A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA.

RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING...AND ARE DEPARTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.  THIS IS
ALLOWING FOR A REDUCTION IN FLYING CONDITIONS...ESP AT KPSF.

THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK LATER IN THE MORNING WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING BACK TO VFR...BUT ANOTHER LINE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PRESSURE AND
IT/S COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS WITH THIS ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON...ESP FOR THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS.

BEHIND THIS FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL TRANSPORT COOLER AND LESS
HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL END THE THREAT FOR
PRECIP...WITH SURFACE WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS FOR THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.  SOME LINGERING
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT...BUT FLYING
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR FOR ALL SITES. BY LATE TONIGHT...CLOUDS
SHOULD SCATTERED OUT AND WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS A
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK STATE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD.
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST TONIGHT ALLOWING COOLER
AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE
SURFACE AS WE HEAD THROUGH MID WEEK...HOWEVER ALOFT DISTURBANCES
WILL PASS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS A
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK STATE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH SOME STORMS AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS
VERY MOIST WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. HAVE CONTINUED WITH
ENHANCED WORDING IN FORECAST FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTAL ARE EXPECTED MAINLY NORTH OF I-90 WITH
AROUND AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
MAY RESULT IN SOME FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
AREAS WHICH HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED A ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE THE MOST VULNERABLE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND
NEAR TERM...IAA/SND
SHORT TERM...IAA LONG
TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...SND/FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA








000
FXUS61 KALY 281304
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
904 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK TODAY...WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST TO NEAR NORTHERN MAINE BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL BRING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA
TODAY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY FAIR AND
COOL WEATHER ON TUESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY FAIR AND COOL
WEATHER IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY CAUSE A FEW
AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UNSEASONABLE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.

AS OF 855 AM...UPDATE TO REMOVE LIKELY POPS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90
IN LINE WITH RADAR ECHOES. CHANGED TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MORNING
HOURS WITH HIGHER POPS DURING AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AND ALONG
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ALSO ADJUSTED HOURLY
TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS BASED ON CURRENT OBS.

12Z ALBANY UPPER AIR SOUNDING SHOWS SOME POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY IN AREAS THAT SEE
SUNSHINE DEVELOP. WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVERHEAD THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY LOOKS TO HAVE THE MOST
POTENTIAL FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER LATER TODAY.

PREVIOUS...
THE SURFACE LOW IS WELL FORECAST TO PASS DIRECTLY OVER THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY. IT WILL STRENGTHEN A BIT MORE AS IT MOVES EASTWARD
DRAGGING ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH. THE STRONG UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION AND HEIGHT FALLS WILL OCCUR TODAY AS THE VIGOROUS
SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO AND OVER THE REGION ALONG WITH THE COLD
FRONT. THE LIMITING FACTOR TODAY WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY
WE WILL ACHIEVE DUE TO CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER THE
AIRMASS IS VERY MOIST WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. IN ADDITION
VEERING OF THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND STRENGTHENING OF WINDS WITH
HEIGHT WILL SUPPORT A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS
TO ACQUIRE ROTATION OR ORGANIZE INTO LINEAR SEGMENTS. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE REGION UNDER "SEE TEXT" DUE TO THIS
CONDITIONAL THREAT. HAVE CONTINUED WITH ENHANCED WORDING OF GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THUNDERSTORMS TODAY IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM`S COLD FRONT...THE THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END. WILL HAVE LINGERING THREAT OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE LOW IS DRAWN NORTHWARD AS THE
SHORT WAVE BECOMES ABSORBED BY THE LARGE CUT OFF LOW CENTERED NEAR
HUDSON`S BAY CANADA. .

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM COOLER AIR WILL BE DRAWN INTO THE
REGION ON NORTHWEST FLOW. INTO MID WEEK THE REGION WILL BE UNDER A
LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH PIECES OF ENERGY SPINNING ABOUT THE LARGE
CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN CANADA...WHICH WILL BE HARD TO TIME. WHILE
AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT
THE REGION SHOULD BE BETWEEN SHORT WAVES TUESDAY SO EXPECTING A DRY
DAY. HAVE POPS IN FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY MAINLY TO THE WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY BY 5 TO 10
DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

A LARGE CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN SITUATED JUST TO OUR
NORTHWEST OVER SOUTHERN CANADA TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE WEAKENING...IT WILL REMAIN
CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA TO ALLOW FOR CYCLONIC FLOW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ESP DURING THE DIURNALLY
FAVORED AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO
NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S FOR VALLEY
AREAS...AND MINS GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY START TO LIFT OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST...ANOTHER IMPULSE DIVING OUT OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST FOR THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL STRENGTHEN THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE CONUS...WHILE A STRONG RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE WESTERN US. THE RESULT WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. AGAIN...THE HIGHEST
COVERAGE/BEST CHANCE WILL BE DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING.  TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...WITH HIGHS RIGHT
AROUND 80 AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CHANGEABLE FLYING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS OVER
THE NEXT 12 HOURS THANKS TO A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA.

RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING...AND ARE DEPARTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.  THIS IS
ALLOWING FOR A REDUCTION IN FLYING CONDITIONS...ESP AT KPSF.

THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK LATER IN THE MORNING WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING BACK TO VFR...BUT ANOTHER LINE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PRESSURE AND
IT/S COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS WITH THIS ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON...ESP FOR THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS.

BEHIND THIS FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL TRANSPORT COOLER AND LESS
HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL END THE THREAT FOR
PRECIP...WITH SURFACE WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS FOR THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.  SOME LINGERING
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT...BUT FLYING
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR FOR ALL SITES. BY LATE TONIGHT...CLOUDS
SHOULD SCATTERED OUT AND WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS A
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK STATE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD.
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST TONIGHT ALLOWING COOLER
AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE
SURFACE AS WE HEAD THROUGH MID WEEK...HOWEVER ALOFT DISTURBANCES
WILL PASS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS A
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK STATE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH SOME STORMS AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS
VERY MOIST WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. HAVE CONTINUED WITH
ENHANCED WORDING IN FORECAST FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTAL ARE EXPECTED MAINLY NORTH OF I-90 WITH
AROUND AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
MAY RESULT IN SOME FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
AREAS WHICH HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED A ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE THE MOST VULNERABLE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND
NEAR TERM...IAA/SND
SHORT TERM...IAA LONG
TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...SND/FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA








000
FXUS61 KALY 281304
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
904 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK TODAY...WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST TO NEAR NORTHERN MAINE BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL BRING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA
TODAY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY FAIR AND
COOL WEATHER ON TUESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY FAIR AND COOL
WEATHER IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY CAUSE A FEW
AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UNSEASONABLE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.

AS OF 855 AM...UPDATE TO REMOVE LIKELY POPS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90
IN LINE WITH RADAR ECHOES. CHANGED TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MORNING
HOURS WITH HIGHER POPS DURING AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AND ALONG
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ALSO ADJUSTED HOURLY
TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS BASED ON CURRENT OBS.

12Z ALBANY UPPER AIR SOUNDING SHOWS SOME POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY IN AREAS THAT SEE
SUNSHINE DEVELOP. WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVERHEAD THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY LOOKS TO HAVE THE MOST
POTENTIAL FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER LATER TODAY.

PREVIOUS...
THE SURFACE LOW IS WELL FORECAST TO PASS DIRECTLY OVER THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY. IT WILL STRENGTHEN A BIT MORE AS IT MOVES EASTWARD
DRAGGING ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH. THE STRONG UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION AND HEIGHT FALLS WILL OCCUR TODAY AS THE VIGOROUS
SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO AND OVER THE REGION ALONG WITH THE COLD
FRONT. THE LIMITING FACTOR TODAY WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY
WE WILL ACHIEVE DUE TO CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER THE
AIRMASS IS VERY MOIST WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. IN ADDITION
VEERING OF THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND STRENGTHENING OF WINDS WITH
HEIGHT WILL SUPPORT A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS
TO ACQUIRE ROTATION OR ORGANIZE INTO LINEAR SEGMENTS. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE REGION UNDER "SEE TEXT" DUE TO THIS
CONDITIONAL THREAT. HAVE CONTINUED WITH ENHANCED WORDING OF GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THUNDERSTORMS TODAY IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM`S COLD FRONT...THE THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END. WILL HAVE LINGERING THREAT OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE LOW IS DRAWN NORTHWARD AS THE
SHORT WAVE BECOMES ABSORBED BY THE LARGE CUT OFF LOW CENTERED NEAR
HUDSON`S BAY CANADA. .

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM COOLER AIR WILL BE DRAWN INTO THE
REGION ON NORTHWEST FLOW. INTO MID WEEK THE REGION WILL BE UNDER A
LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH PIECES OF ENERGY SPINNING ABOUT THE LARGE
CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN CANADA...WHICH WILL BE HARD TO TIME. WHILE
AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT
THE REGION SHOULD BE BETWEEN SHORT WAVES TUESDAY SO EXPECTING A DRY
DAY. HAVE POPS IN FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY MAINLY TO THE WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY BY 5 TO 10
DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

A LARGE CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN SITUATED JUST TO OUR
NORTHWEST OVER SOUTHERN CANADA TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE WEAKENING...IT WILL REMAIN
CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA TO ALLOW FOR CYCLONIC FLOW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ESP DURING THE DIURNALLY
FAVORED AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO
NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S FOR VALLEY
AREAS...AND MINS GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY START TO LIFT OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST...ANOTHER IMPULSE DIVING OUT OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST FOR THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL STRENGTHEN THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE CONUS...WHILE A STRONG RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE WESTERN US. THE RESULT WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. AGAIN...THE HIGHEST
COVERAGE/BEST CHANCE WILL BE DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING.  TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...WITH HIGHS RIGHT
AROUND 80 AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CHANGEABLE FLYING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS OVER
THE NEXT 12 HOURS THANKS TO A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA.

RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING...AND ARE DEPARTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.  THIS IS
ALLOWING FOR A REDUCTION IN FLYING CONDITIONS...ESP AT KPSF.

THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK LATER IN THE MORNING WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING BACK TO VFR...BUT ANOTHER LINE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PRESSURE AND
IT/S COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS WITH THIS ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON...ESP FOR THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS.

BEHIND THIS FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL TRANSPORT COOLER AND LESS
HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL END THE THREAT FOR
PRECIP...WITH SURFACE WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS FOR THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.  SOME LINGERING
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT...BUT FLYING
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR FOR ALL SITES. BY LATE TONIGHT...CLOUDS
SHOULD SCATTERED OUT AND WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS A
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK STATE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD.
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST TONIGHT ALLOWING COOLER
AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE
SURFACE AS WE HEAD THROUGH MID WEEK...HOWEVER ALOFT DISTURBANCES
WILL PASS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS A
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK STATE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH SOME STORMS AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS
VERY MOIST WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. HAVE CONTINUED WITH
ENHANCED WORDING IN FORECAST FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTAL ARE EXPECTED MAINLY NORTH OF I-90 WITH
AROUND AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
MAY RESULT IN SOME FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
AREAS WHICH HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED A ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE THE MOST VULNERABLE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND
NEAR TERM...IAA/SND
SHORT TERM...IAA LONG
TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...SND/FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA








000
FXUS61 KALY 281304
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
904 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK TODAY...WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST TO NEAR NORTHERN MAINE BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL BRING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA
TODAY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY FAIR AND
COOL WEATHER ON TUESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY FAIR AND COOL
WEATHER IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY CAUSE A FEW
AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UNSEASONABLE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.

AS OF 855 AM...UPDATE TO REMOVE LIKELY POPS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90
IN LINE WITH RADAR ECHOES. CHANGED TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MORNING
HOURS WITH HIGHER POPS DURING AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AND ALONG
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ALSO ADJUSTED HOURLY
TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS BASED ON CURRENT OBS.

12Z ALBANY UPPER AIR SOUNDING SHOWS SOME POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY IN AREAS THAT SEE
SUNSHINE DEVELOP. WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVERHEAD THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY LOOKS TO HAVE THE MOST
POTENTIAL FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER LATER TODAY.

PREVIOUS...
THE SURFACE LOW IS WELL FORECAST TO PASS DIRECTLY OVER THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY. IT WILL STRENGTHEN A BIT MORE AS IT MOVES EASTWARD
DRAGGING ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH. THE STRONG UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION AND HEIGHT FALLS WILL OCCUR TODAY AS THE VIGOROUS
SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO AND OVER THE REGION ALONG WITH THE COLD
FRONT. THE LIMITING FACTOR TODAY WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY
WE WILL ACHIEVE DUE TO CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER THE
AIRMASS IS VERY MOIST WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. IN ADDITION
VEERING OF THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND STRENGTHENING OF WINDS WITH
HEIGHT WILL SUPPORT A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS
TO ACQUIRE ROTATION OR ORGANIZE INTO LINEAR SEGMENTS. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE REGION UNDER "SEE TEXT" DUE TO THIS
CONDITIONAL THREAT. HAVE CONTINUED WITH ENHANCED WORDING OF GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THUNDERSTORMS TODAY IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM`S COLD FRONT...THE THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END. WILL HAVE LINGERING THREAT OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE LOW IS DRAWN NORTHWARD AS THE
SHORT WAVE BECOMES ABSORBED BY THE LARGE CUT OFF LOW CENTERED NEAR
HUDSON`S BAY CANADA. .

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM COOLER AIR WILL BE DRAWN INTO THE
REGION ON NORTHWEST FLOW. INTO MID WEEK THE REGION WILL BE UNDER A
LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH PIECES OF ENERGY SPINNING ABOUT THE LARGE
CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN CANADA...WHICH WILL BE HARD TO TIME. WHILE
AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT
THE REGION SHOULD BE BETWEEN SHORT WAVES TUESDAY SO EXPECTING A DRY
DAY. HAVE POPS IN FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY MAINLY TO THE WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY BY 5 TO 10
DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

A LARGE CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN SITUATED JUST TO OUR
NORTHWEST OVER SOUTHERN CANADA TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE WEAKENING...IT WILL REMAIN
CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA TO ALLOW FOR CYCLONIC FLOW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ESP DURING THE DIURNALLY
FAVORED AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO
NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S FOR VALLEY
AREAS...AND MINS GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY START TO LIFT OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST...ANOTHER IMPULSE DIVING OUT OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST FOR THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL STRENGTHEN THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE CONUS...WHILE A STRONG RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE WESTERN US. THE RESULT WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. AGAIN...THE HIGHEST
COVERAGE/BEST CHANCE WILL BE DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING.  TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...WITH HIGHS RIGHT
AROUND 80 AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CHANGEABLE FLYING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS OVER
THE NEXT 12 HOURS THANKS TO A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA.

RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING...AND ARE DEPARTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.  THIS IS
ALLOWING FOR A REDUCTION IN FLYING CONDITIONS...ESP AT KPSF.

THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK LATER IN THE MORNING WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING BACK TO VFR...BUT ANOTHER LINE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PRESSURE AND
IT/S COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS WITH THIS ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON...ESP FOR THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS.

BEHIND THIS FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL TRANSPORT COOLER AND LESS
HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL END THE THREAT FOR
PRECIP...WITH SURFACE WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS FOR THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.  SOME LINGERING
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT...BUT FLYING
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR FOR ALL SITES. BY LATE TONIGHT...CLOUDS
SHOULD SCATTERED OUT AND WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS A
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK STATE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD.
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST TONIGHT ALLOWING COOLER
AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE
SURFACE AS WE HEAD THROUGH MID WEEK...HOWEVER ALOFT DISTURBANCES
WILL PASS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS A
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK STATE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH SOME STORMS AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS
VERY MOIST WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. HAVE CONTINUED WITH
ENHANCED WORDING IN FORECAST FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTAL ARE EXPECTED MAINLY NORTH OF I-90 WITH
AROUND AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
MAY RESULT IN SOME FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
AREAS WHICH HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED A ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE THE MOST VULNERABLE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND
NEAR TERM...IAA/SND
SHORT TERM...IAA LONG
TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...SND/FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA








000
FXUS61 KOKX 281155
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
755 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK THROUGH NEW ENGLAND TODAY
AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THE COLD FRONT PUSHES
EAST TONIGHT...SETTLING WELL OFFSHORE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES AGAIN FOR