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000
FXUS61 KBOX 241320
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
920 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and few embedded thunderstorms will focus
primarily across Western portions of MA and CT this afternoon as
low pressure slowly moves across southeastern New England. An
upper level high pressure ridge will then bring very warm to
borderline hot weather to most of the region Wednesday through
Saturday, except for times of cooler temperatures on the immediate
coast. A few showers and thunderstorms are possible Thursday night
into Friday, but a better chance exists Saturday afternoon and
evening ahead of the cold front.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...

915 am update...

Not much change from previous forecast. Showers and isolated
thunder focused across northern and western MA including western
CT. This convection is on the nose of a short wave trough moving
across the region. On the backside of this feature drier mid level
air is beginning to overspread the area and is supporting more low
top showers and drizzle moving onshore to RI and Eastern MA.

Moving forward into the afternoon...northeast winds and low clouds
will contiue across RI and Eastern MA leading to mist/drizzle and
scattered low top showers. Thus not a washout but damp and dreary.
Farther west into CT and Western-Central MA...away from the
northeast onshore flow low clouds give way to higher ceilings
along with a few breaks of sunshine and scattered showers. All
model guid including the SSEO and NCAR ensembles suggest any
limited instability /250-750 j-kg/ will be confined to Western
portions of CT and MA. This is where showers will be most numerous
this afternoon and early evening along with the risk of a few
thunderstorms. Although NOT expecting any strong storms given lack
of instability and shear.

Cool temps today especially along the coast given northeast
winds...clouds and light precip. Milder inland away from the
onshore flow along with a few breaks of sunshine. Previous
forecast on track so no major changes with this update. Earlier
discussion below.

====================================================================

Bulk of scattered showers with brief heavy rain and were mainly to
the northwest of a Boston to Providence line with the steadiest
of activity in Western MA.

Will see a brief break in the action except for a few showers
lingering through late morning. Then activity looks to start firing
up again later today, with another round of sct showers/isold
thunderstorms develop mainly across W MA and N CT this afternoon,
but not much in Eastern MA/RI given cool stabilizing marine layer.

00Z short range model suite continue to signal the instability
remaining across the region, with total totals up to the lower to
mid 50s /more robust on the NAM/, surface based LIs down to zero
to -2 and K indices to the lower 30s. Also noted CAPES on order
of 400-500 J/kg this afternoon across this area so, along with H5
temps down to -18C to -19C in the core of the cold pool as it
crosses the region, so there is a low risk for isolated small hail
reports in Western MA/Northern CT.

Convection should begin to wane toward sunset, but will linger
across N and W MA into N central CT into the evening.

With the onshore winds continuing, albeit light, temps will only
rise to around 60 along the immediate coast, but look to reach to
the upper 60s to near 70 across the CT valley.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...

Tonight...

As the H5 upper low and the associated surface reflection continue
to move slowly NE tonight, will see some leftover isolated
showers/thunderstorms into this evening before finally ending.

With light and variable winds in place along with wet ground in
many places, will likely see patchy fog redevelop overnight.
Also, cooler, drier air will not rush in with light pres gradient
in place, so temps will not fall back too far tonight. Expect lows
in the 50-55 degree range.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

Highlights...

* Very warm Wed/Thu/Fri with highs well up into the 80s except
  cooler immediate coast at times
* Hot Saturday afternoon w/highs mainly upper 80s to the lower 90s
* A few showers/t-storms possible Thu night/Fri but best chance Sat
  afternoon/evening ahead of cold front
* Turning much cooler Sun and especially Mon along the coast


Details...

Wednesday...Closed upper level low lifts northeast of our region
allowing for rising heights/warmer mid level temps.  More
importantly, surface winds will turn to the west which makes a huge
difference in afternoon high temps this time of year.  Given 850T
between 13c/14c and plenty of late May sunshine, high temps should
be in the mid to upper 80s for most including Boston, as any sea
breezes that develop along the Eastern MA coast will be overcome by
increasing gradient by afternoon.  A few locations may even touch
90. It will be a bit cooler on the south coast/Cape/Islands, but
still should see highs well into the 70s to near 80.

Dry weather will dominate Wednesday, but there is a low risk of a
spot shower/t-storm during the afternoon/early evening across the
interior.  Limiting factors though will be dry mid levels and lack
of low level forcing.

Wednesday night...Other than a low risk for a spot shower/t-storm
across the interior during the evening dry weather is expected
behind a weak cold front. Low temps will only fall back into the 50s
in most locations with 60 to 65 in some of the urban centers.  A
touch of patchy fog may develop in the typically prone locations
toward daybreak.

Thursday...Upper level ridging across the Southeast U.S. continues
to nose into southern New England.  This will result in plenty of
sunshine and with warm mid level temps, highs again should reach
well into the 80s in most locations.  However, gradient will be
weaker allowing for sea breezes to develop on the immediate Eastern
MA coast including Boston by early afternoon. High temps will still
likely reach well up into the 70s to near 80 in this region before
sea breezes develop and temps fall a bit. Should remain dry given
lack of forcing and upper level ridging nosing into this region.

Thursday night and Friday...A shortwave will lift northeast into
northern New England Thu night/Fri.  While the best forcing will to
our north, a few showers/t-storms are possible with the best chance
across western and northern MA.  Certainly not expecting a washout
though and the majority of the Thu night/Fri will be dry.
Still looks like a warm afternoon with temps into the 80s, but it
may be cooler across Northeast MA depending on location of backdoor
cold front.

Saturday...A hot day with westerly flow and 850T near 16c.  This
should yield highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s for most locations.
Dewpoints into the 60s will make it feel somewhat muggy.
Pre-frontal trough ahead of an approaching cold front may trigger
scattered showers/thunderstorms mainly Saturday afternoon and
evening.

Sunday and Monday...High pressure over the Canadian Maritimes will
build south into New England.  So despite rather high height fields,
northeast low level flow will result in much cooler temps Sun and
especially Mon particularly along the coast.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

920 am update ... no major changes from 12z TAFs. Lowest
cigs/vsbys will be over RI and Eastern MA along with mist/drizzle
and a few showers. Inland across CT and Western-Central MA
cigs/vsbys in the MVFR range but showers will be more numerous
across this area along with low risk of a few afternoon
thunderstorms. Earlier discussion below.

====================================================================

Today...Moderate confidence.

Mainly IFR conditions along the coastal plain this morning in low
clouds and patchy fog.  These conditions will likely improve to low
end MVFR this afternoon, except for the Cape and Islands. Across the
interior...much of the region will see ceilings lower to MVFR levels
by mid to late morning and these conditions mainly continuing
through the afternoon.

Scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms shifting focus to mainly
Western MA and Northern CT by afternoon.

Tonight...Moderate confidence.

Isolated SHRA/TSRA lingers across central and N MA through this
evening, then ending. Patchy fog lingers along E coastal MA with
MVFR-IFR VSBYS, while fog redevelops away from the coast with
areas of MVFR VSBYS. Light/vrbl winds.

KBOS TAF...Moderate confidence. IFR conditions this morning probably
improve to low end MVFR this afternoon.  Scattered showers mainly
northwest of the terminal most of the day.

KBDL TAF...Moderate confidence. Conditions will lower to MVFR this
morning and persist into the afternoon. Scattered showers at times
with a low risk of an embedded t-storm this afternoon/early evening.

Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/...

Wednesday and Thursday...High confidence. VFR conditions other
than a few hours of patchy ground fog possible toward daybreak Thu
in the typically prone locations.

Thursday night and Friday...Moderate confidence.  VFR conditions
likely dominate but some brief MVFR conditions possible in a few
showers/t-storms mainly across the interior.

Saturday...Moderate confidence. Mainly VFR conditions but brief
MVFR- IFR conditions possible Saturday afternoon/evening in
scattered showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Through 12Z...Moderate confidence.

Expect E-NE winds less than 15 kt and seas below 5 ft. Visibility
reductions in showers, widely scattered thunderstorms and patchy
fog. Today...Moderate Confidence.

E-NE winds less than 15 kt. Seas will build up to 5-6 ft across
the outer waters from Cape Cod southward, mainly in S-SE swells
this afternoon. Local visibility restrictions in scattered
showers, isolated thunderstorms and patchy fog. Winds will back
to N during the afternoon. Small crafts have been issued for
portions of the outer waters.

Tonight...Moderate Confidence.

N-NW winds as low pressure moves offshore, but remaining light.
E-SE swells will remain at 5-6 ft through around midnight, then
will slowly subside toward daybreak. Small crafts will continue
for portions of the outer waters. May see local visibility
restrictions in patchy fog. Low risk of isolated showers early.

Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/...High Confidence.

Winds and seas will remain below Small Craft Advisory thresholds
the majority of the period with the exception being Wednesday
night. Some brief near shore southwest wind gusts of 20 to 25
knots are likely Wed afternoon...which will result in some choppy
seas. In addition, long southwest fetch may bring a period of 5
foot seas across our southern waters Wednesday night which may
require headlines.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Wednesday...High temperatures soaring well into the 80s in most
locations will result in minimum afternoon RH values dropping to
between 20 and 30 percent.  A few hours of westerly wind gusts of 20
to 25 mph are anticipated. Given this morning`s rainfall and
marginal criteria, will probably fall short on the need for fire
weather headlines.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas from 1 PM this
     afternoon to 4 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ254-255.
     Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas from 3 PM this
     afternoon to 1 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Frank/EVT
NEAR TERM...Frank/Nocera/EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...Frank
AVIATION...Frank/Nocera/EVT
MARINE...Frank/Nocera/EVT
FIRE WEATHER...



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000
FXUS61 KOKX 241250
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
850 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure south of Cape Cod tracks northeast today and tonight,
moving along the New England coast. High pressure builds in
briefly for late tonight and Wednesday. A cold front moves
through late Wednesday night into Thursday morning and lifts north
as a warm front later in the day Thursday. High pressure remains
situated over the western Atlantic through the first half of the
weekend. A backdoor cold front moves through on late Saturday
night into Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A weakening low south of Cape Cod tracks slowly northeast through
today. A weak surface trough extends back from the low into the
lower Hudson Valley. Meanwhile an upper closed, and nearly cutoff
low, east southeast of the Delmarva, as seen on the water vapor
loop, drifts north to northeast and begins to fill and get picked
up by the northern stream.

With areas of energy rotating around the low and the surface low,
showers will continue through this morning, eventually becoming
more scattered this afternoon. Instability is very weak this
morning and generally less than 50 J/KG but this will increase
this afternoon to a few hundred J/KG with increased daytime
heating at the surface. Forecast includes isolated thunderstorms
this afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
Tonight the upper low continues to fill and becomes an open wave
after 06Z and the northern stream carries the low into Maine and
Nova Scotia, merging with low pressure over eastern Canada. The
surface low becomes nearly indistinguishable by late tonight, also
merging with a surface low over eastern Canada. By 00Z
precipitation is quickly ending as heights rise from as weak upper
ridging builds to the west. This ridge builds through Wednesday
with dry weather late this evening through Wednesday.

Warmer air continues to move into the region tonight through
Wednesday at the lower and mid levels. A dramatic warmup is
expected across the entire region as a westerly flow allows even
coastal areas to warm to well above seasonal normals.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A weak area of low pressure over the Canadian Maritimes will push a
cold front through the area Wednesday night. This front will then
head quickly back north as a warm front, moving through Thursday
afternoon.

Thereafter, there will be a prolonged period of southerly flow as
surface high pressure settles over the Western Atlantic. At the same
time, ridging aloft will mean rising heights and therefore, warming
temperatures, mainly for areas away from the coast. Closer to the
coast, flow off the cooler ocean waters will keep these areas a few
degrees cooler than inland. With a southerly flow, dewpoints will
also be on the rise. By the weekend, dewpoints could be in the lower
60s, making it slightly uncomfortable for some.

The 00Z ECMWF and the 00Z GFS are in better agreement on the passage
of a back door cold front late Saturday night into Sunday (quicker
than previously forecast). Thereafter, the 2 models differ. The GFS
continues to nose a strong high pressure from southeastern Canada
into the area, while the ECMWF keeps this high off the Atlantic
coast, and is weaker. Though the 00Z ECMWF does nose the high
pressure farther inland than the previous run. The GFS solution
would keep the area dry for the beginning of next week, while the
ECMWF would keep it unsettled. Due to the uncertainty, a blend of
models seems reasonable.

The cold frontal passages Wednesday night looks to come through dry
with limited moisture to work with. There may be some showers and
thunderstorms with the warm frontal passage on Thursday, mainly
inland as the lower temperatures over the coastal areas stabilizes
those areas. A thermal trough sets up over inland areas for Friday
and Saturday, which will mean diurnal showers and thunderstorms for
these areas. Showers and thunderstorms will also be possible with
the backdoor cold front passage late Sunday into Sunday night. This
will not be a continuous rainfall event from Friday through Sunday
night.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Low pressure moves north, passing nearby Cape Cod this afternoon.

Primarily VFR, except some MVFR east of the city. Moderate
confidence flight category forecast. Rain will be steadier this
morning versus this afternoon. Isolated thunder possible at any
time today, but timing and location not certain enough for
inclusion in TAFs.

Low confidence with wind direction, however speeds should at least
remain below 10 kt.

     NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information...including hourly TAF wind component fcsts can
be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: Occasional vsbys 3-5SM possible in rain this
morning. Timing of variable wind direction and south wind shift
could be off by a few hours.

KLGA TAF Comments: Occasional vsbys 3-5SM possible in rain this
morning. Timing of NE wind direction and SE wind shift could be
off by a few hours.

KEWR TAF Comments: Occasional vsbys 3-5SM possible in rain this
morning. Timing of variable wind direction and SE wind shift
could be off by a few hours.

The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is GREEN...which implies
slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud.

KTEB TAF Comments: Occasional vsbys 3-5SM possible in rain this
morning. Timing of variable wind direction and SE wind shift
could be off by a few hours.

KHPN TAF Comments: Occasional vsbys 3-5SM possible in rain this
morning. Timing of NE wind direction and SE wind shift could be
off by a few hours.

KISP TAF Comments: Timing of improvement to VFR might be of by a
few hours. Timing of variable wind direction and south wind shift
could be off by a few hours.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z Wednesday through Saturday...
.Wednesday-Thursday...VFR.
.Thursday night...Low chance of MVFR in showers.
.Friday-Saturday...MVFR possible in afternoon/evening tstms.

&&

.MARINE...
A weak pressure gradient force will be across the waters today
through Wednesday as a weakening low south of Cape Cod tracks to
the northeast through tonight and high pressure builds in late
tonight and Wednesday.

The only hazard across the forecast waters will be isolated
thunderstorms this afternoon into early this evening. Otherwise
no hazardous conditions are expected.

Winds and waves should remain below SCA criteria for the long term
with light a pressure gradient.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Rainfall amounts of 1/3 to 3/4 of an inch are possible today into
this evening with the highest amounts across western Long Island,
southwestern Connecticut, and Northeastern New Jersey. Locally
higher amounts will be possible in isolated thunderstorms.

No concerns for hydrology Wednesday through Monday.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JP/MET
NEAR TERM...JM/MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JM/JP/MET
HYDROLOGY...JP/MET




000
FXUS61 KOKX 241147
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
747 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure south of Cape Cod tracks northeast today and tonight,
moving along the New England coast. High pressure builds in
briefly for late tonight and Wednesday. A cold front moves
through late Wednesday night into Thursday morning and lifts north
as a warm front later in the day Thursday. High pressure remains
situated over the western Atlantic through the first half of the
weekend. A backdoor cold front moves through on late Saturday
night into Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A weakening low south of Cape Cod tracks slowly northeast through
today. A weak surface trough extends back from the low into the
lower Hudson Valley. Meanwhile an upper closed, and nearly cutoff
low, east southeast of the DELMARVA, as seen on the water vapor
loop, drifts north to northeast and begins to fill and get picked
up by the northern stream. With areas of energy rotating around
the low and the surface low, showers will continue through today.
With weak surface and mixed layer instability along with a cold
pool associated with the upper low, isolated thunderstorms will
be possible. Have kept a mention through the day, however, believe
the best chances will be this morning through 18Z. Afterward low
level warm advection sets up and caps the area lessening threat of
thunder. Some weak elevated cape is available in the afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
Tonight the upper low continues to fill and becomes an open wave
after 06Z and the northern stream carries the low into Maine and
Nova Scotia, merging with low pressure over eastern Canada. The
surface low becomes nearly indistinguishable by late tonight, also
merging with a surface low over eastern Canada. By 00Z
precipitation is quickly ending as heights rise from as weak upper
ridging builds to the west. This ridge builds through Wednesday
with dry weather late this evening through Wednesday.

Warmer air continues to move into the region tonight through
Wednesday at the lower and mid levels. A dramatic warmup is
expected across the entire region as a westerly flow allows even
coastal areas to warm to well above seasonal normals.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A weak area of low pressure over the Canadian Maritimes will push a
cold front through the area Wednesday night. This front will then
head quickly back north as a warm front, moving through Thursday
afternoon.

Thereafter, there will be a prolonged period of southerly flow as
surface high pressure settles over the Western Atlantic. At the same
time, ridging aloft will mean rising heights and therefore, warming
temperatures, mainly for areas away from the coast. Closer to the
coast, flow off the cooler ocean waters will keep these areas a few
degrees cooler than inland. With a southerly flow, dewpoints will
also be on the rise. By the weekend, dewpoints could be in the lower
60s, making it slightly uncomfortable for some.

The 00Z ECMWF and the 00Z GFS are in better agreement on the passage
of a back door cold front late Saturday night into Sunday (quicker
than previously forecast). Thereafter, the 2 models differ. The GFS
continues to nose a strong high pressure from southeastern Canada
into the area, while the ECMWF keeps this high off the Atlantic
coast, and is weaker. Though the 00Z ECMWF does nose the high
pressure farther inland than the previous run. The GFS solution
would keep the area dry for the beginning of next week, while the
ECMWF would keep it unsettled. Due to the uncertainty, a blend of
models seems reasonable.

The cold frontal passages Wednesday night looks to come through dry
with limited moisture to work with. There may be some showers and
thunderstorms with the warm frontal passage on Thursday, mainly
inland as the lower temperatures over the coastal areas stabilizes
those areas. A thermal trough sets up over inland areas for Friday
and Saturday, which will mean diurnal showers and thunderstorms for
these areas. Showers and thunderstorms will also be possible with
the backdoor cold front passage late Sunday into Sunday night. This
will not be a continuous rainfall event from Friday through Sunday
night.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Low pressure moves north, passing nearby Cape Cod this afternoon.

Primarily VFR, except some MVFR east of the city. Moderate
confidence flight category forecast. Rain will be steadier this
morning versus this afternoon. Isolated thunder possible at any
time today, but timing and location not certain enough for
inclusion in TAFs.

Low confidence with wind direction, however speeds should at least
remain below 10 kt.

     NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information...including hourly TAF wind component fcsts can
be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: Occasional vsbys 3-5SM possible in rain this
morning. Timing of variable wind direction and south wind shift
could be off by a few hours.

KLGA TAF Comments: Occasional vsbys 3-5SM possible in rain this
morning. Timing of NE wind direction and SE wind shift could be
off by a few hours.

KEWR TAF Comments: Occasional vsbys 3-5SM possible in rain this
morning. Timing of variable wind direction and SE wind shift
could be off by a few hours.

The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is GREEN...which implies
slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud.

KTEB TAF Comments: Occasional vsbys 3-5SM possible in rain this
morning. Timing of variable wind direction and SE wind shift
could be off by a few hours.

KHPN TAF Comments: Occasional vsbys 3-5SM possible in rain this
morning. Timing of NE wind direction and SE wind shift could be
off by a few hours.

KISP TAF Comments: Timing of improvement to VFR might be of by a
few hours. Timing of variable wind direction and south wind shift
could be off by a few hours.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z Wednesday through Saturday...
.Wednesday-Thursday...VFR.
.Thursday night...Low chance of MVFR in showers.
.Friday-Saturday...MVFR possible in afternoon/evening tstms.

&&

.MARINE...
A weak pressure gradient force will be across the waters today
through Wednesday as a weakening low south of Cape Cod tracks to
the northeast through tonight and high pressure builds in late
tonight and Wednesday.

The only hazard across the forecast waters will be isolated
thunderstorms today into early this evening. Otherwise no
hazardous conditions are expected.

Winds and waves should remain below SCA criteria for the long term
with light a pressure gradient.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Rainfall amounts of 1/3 to 3/4 of an inch are possible today into
this evening with the highest amounts across western Long Island,
southwestern Connecticut, and Northeastern New Jersey. Locally
higher amounts will be possible in isolated thunderstorms.

No concerns for hydrology Wednesday through Monday.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JP/MET
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JP/MET
HYDROLOGY...JP/MET




000
FXUS61 KBOX 241120
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
720 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

Scattered showers and few embedded thunderstorms this morning will
focus primarily across Western MA and Northern CT by afternoon as
low pressure slowly moves across southeastern New England. An
upper level high pressure ridge will then bring very warm to
borderline hot weather to most of the region Wednesday through
Saturday, except for times of cooler temperatures on the immediate
coast. A few showers and thunderstorms are possible Thursday night
into Friday, but a better chance exists Saturday afternoon and
evening ahead of the cold front.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

720 am update...

Bulk of scattered showers with brief heavy rain and were mainly to
the northwest of a Boston to Providence line with the steadiest
of activity in Western MA.

Will see a brief break in the action except for a few showers
lingering through late morning. Then activity looks to start firing
up again later today, with another round of sct showers/isold
thunderstorms develop mainly across W MA and N CT this afternoon,
but not much in Eastern MA/RI given cool stabilizing marine layer.

00Z short range model suite continue to signal the instability
remaining across the region, with total totals up to the lower to
mid 50s /more robust on the NAM/, surface based LIs down to zero
to -2 and K indices to the lower 30s. Also noted CAPES on order
of 400-500 J/kg this afternoon across this area so, along with H5
temps down to -18C to -19C in the core of the cold pool as it
crosses the region, so there is a low risk for isolated small hail
reports in Western MA/Northern CT.

Convection should begin to wane toward sunset, but will linger
across N and W MA into N central CT into the evening.

With the onshore winds continuing, albeit light, temps will only
rise to around 60 along the immediate coast, but look to reach to
the upper 60s to near 70 across the CT valley.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...

Tonight...

As the H5 upper low and the associated surface reflection continue
to move slowly NE tonight, will see some leftover isolated
showers/thunderstorms into this evening before finally ending.

With light and variable winds in place along with wet ground in
many places, will likely see patchy fog redevelop overnight.
Also, cooler, drier air will not rush in with light pres gradient
in place, so temps will not fall back too far tonight. Expect lows
in the 50-55 degree range.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

Highlights...

* Very warm Wed/Thu/Fri with highs well up into the 80s except
  cooler immediate coast at times
* Hot Saturday afternoon w/highs mainly upper 80s to the lower 90s
* A few showers/t-storms possible Thu night/Fri but best chance Sat
  afternoon/evening ahead of cold front
* Turning much cooler Sun and especially Mon along the coast


Details...

Wednesday...Closed upper level low lifts northeast of our region
allowing for rising heights/warmer mid level temps.  More
importantly, surface winds will turn to the west which makes a huge
difference in afternoon high temps this time of year.  Given 850T
between 13c/14c and plenty of late May sunshine, high temps should
be in the mid to upper 80s for most including Boston, as any sea
breezes that develop along the Eastern MA coast will be overcome by
increasing gradient by afternoon.  A few locations may even touch
90. It will be a bit cooler on the south coast/Cape/Islands, but
still should see highs well into the 70s to near 80.

Dry weather will dominate Wednesday, but there is a low risk of a
spot shower/t-storm during the afternoon/early evening across the
interior.  Limiting factors though will be dry mid levels and lack
of low level forcing.

Wednesday night...Other than a low risk for a spot shower/t-storm
across the interior during the evening dry weather is expected
behind a weak cold front. Low temps will only fall back into the 50s
in most locations with 60 to 65 in some of the urban centers.  A
touch of patchy fog may develop in the typically prone locations
toward daybreak.

Thursday...Upper level ridging across the Southeast U.S. continues
to nose into southern New England.  This will result in plenty of
sunshine and with warm mid level temps, highs again should reach
well into the 80s in most locations.  However, gradient will be
weaker allowing for sea breezes to develop on the immediate Eastern
MA coast including Boston by early afternoon. High temps will still
likely reach well up into the 70s to near 80 in this region before
sea breezes develop and temps fall a bit. Should remain dry given
lack of forcing and upper level ridging nosing into this region.

Thursday night and Friday...A shortwave will lift northeast into
northern New England Thu night/Fri.  While the best forcing will to
our north, a few showers/t-storms are possible with the best chance
across western and northern MA.  Certainly not expecting a washout
though and the majority of the Thu night/Fri will be dry.
Still looks like a warm afternoon with temps into the 80s, but it
may be cooler across Northeast MA depending on location of backdoor
cold front.

Saturday...A hot day with westerly flow and 850T near 16c.  This
should yield highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s for most locations.
Dewpoints into the 60s will make it feel somewhat muggy.
Pre-frontal trough ahead of an approaching cold front may trigger
scattered showers/thunderstorms mainly Saturday afternoon and
evening.

Sunday and Monday...High pressure over the Canadian Maritimes will
build south into New England.  So despite rather high height fields,
northeast low level flow will result in much cooler temps Sun and
especially Mon particularly along the coast.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Today...Moderate confidence.

Mainly IFR conditions along the coastal plain this morning in low
clouds and patchy fog.  These conditions will likely improve to low
end MVFR this afternoon, except for the Cape and Islands. Across the
interior...much of the region will see ceilings lower to MVFR levels
by mid to late morning and these conditions mainly continuing
through the afternoon.

Scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms shifting focus to mainly
Western MA and Northern CT by afternoon.

Tonight...Moderate confidence.

Isolated SHRA/TSRA lingers across central and N MA through this
evening, then ending. Patchy fog lingers along E coastal MA with
MVFR-IFR VSBYS, while fog redevelops away from the coast with
areas of MVFR VSBYS. Light/vrbl winds.

KBOS TAF...Moderate confidence. IFR conditions this morning probably
improve to low end MVFR this afternoon.  Scattered showers mainly
northwest of the terminal most of the day.

KBDL TAF...Moderate confidence. Conditions will lower to MVFR this
morning and persist into the afternoon. Scattered showers at times
with a low risk of an embedded t-storm this afternoon/early evening.

Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/...

Wednesday and Thursday...High confidence. VFR conditions other
than a few hours of patchy ground fog possible toward daybreak Thu
in the typically prone locations.

Thursday night and Friday...Moderate confidence.  VFR conditions
likely dominate but some brief MVFR conditions possible in a few
showers/t-storms mainly across the interior.

Saturday...Moderate confidence. Mainly VFR conditions but brief
MVFR- IFR conditions possible Saturday afternoon/evening in
scattered showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Through 12Z...Moderate confidence.

Expect E-NE winds less than 15 kt and seas below 5 ft. Visibility
reductions in showers, widely scattered thunderstorms and patchy
fog. Today...Moderate Confidence.

E-NE winds less than 15 kt. Seas will build up to 5-6 ft across
the outer waters from Cape Cod southward, mainly in S-SE swells
this afternoon. Local visibility restrictions in scattered
showers, isolated thunderstorms and patchy fog. Winds will back
to N during the afternoon. Small crafts have been issued for
portions of the outer waters.

Tonight...Moderate Confidence.

N-NW winds as low pressure moves offshore, but remaining light.
E-SE swells will remain at 5-6 ft through around midnight, then
will slowly subside toward daybreak. Small crafts will continue
for portions of the outer waters. May see local visibility
restrictions in patchy fog. Low risk of isolated showers early.

Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/...High Confidence.

Winds and seas will remain below Small Craft Advisory thresholds
the majority of the period with the exception being Wednesday
night. Some brief near shore southwest wind gusts of 20 to 25
knots are likely Wed afternoon...which will result in some choppy
seas. In addition, long southwest fetch may bring a period of 5
foot seas across our southern waters Wednesday night which may
require headlines.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Wednesday...High temperatures soaring well into the 80s in most
locations will result in minimum afternoon RH values dropping to
between 20 and 30 percent.  A few hours of westerly wind gusts of 20
to 25 mph are anticipated. Given this morning`s rainfall and
marginal criteria, will probably fall short on the need for fire
weather headlines.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas from 1 PM this
     afternoon to 4 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ254-255.
     Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas from 3 PM this
     afternoon to 1 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVT/Frank
NEAR TERM...Frank/EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...Frank
AVIATION...EVT/Frank
MARINE...EVT/Frank




000
FXUS61 KBOX 240940
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
540 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and few embedded thunderstorms this morning will
focus primarily across Western MA and Northern CT by afternoon as
low pressure slowly moves across southeastern New England. An
upper level high pressure ridge will then bring very warm to
borderline hot weather to most of the region Wednesday through
Saturday, except for times of cooler temperatures on the immediate
coast. A few showers and thunderstorms are possible Thursday night
into Friday, but a better chance exists Saturday afternoon and
evening ahead of the cold front.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms continue to rotate N-NW
across the region at 09Z. Noted several reports of thunderstorms,
including a tree split in two in Acushnet. Will continue to
monitor those.

Band of showers with embedded thunderstorms will shift into S NH
over next couple of hours, while more showers continue to rotate
around upper low across W MA/N CT through mid morning. Good
instability still in place as well with core of H5 cold pool
slowly shifting toward the region, so can not rule out more
isolated convection through mid morning.

Will see a brief break in the action except for a few showers
lingering through mid to late morning. Then convection looks to
start firing up again, with another round of sct showers/isold
thunderstorms develop mainly across W MA and N CT.

00Z short range model suite continue to signal the instability
remaining across the region, with total totals up to the lower to
mid 50s /more robust on the NAM/, surface based LIs down to zero
to -2 and K indices to the lower 30s. Also noted CAPES on order
of 400-500 J/kg this afternoon across this area so, along with H5
temps down to -18C to -19C in the core of the cold pool as it
crosses the region, can not rule out any small hail that could
develop in any thunderstorms.

Convection should begin to wane toward sunset, but will linger
across N and W MA into N central CT into the evening.

With the onshore winds continuing, albeit light, temps will only
rise to around 60 along the immediate coast, but look to reach to
the upper 60s to near 70 across the CT valley.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...

Tonight...

As the H5 upper low and the associated surface reflection continue
to move slowly NE tonight, will see some leftover isolated
showers/thunderstorms into this evening before finally ending.

With light and variable winds in place along with wet ground in
many places, will likely see patchy fog redevelop overnight.
Also, cooler, drier air will not rush in with light pres gradient
in place, so temps will not fall back too far tonight. Expect lows
in the 50-55 degree range.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Highlights...

* Very warm Wed/Thu/Fri with highs well up into the 80s except
  cooler immediate coast at times
* Hot Saturday afternoon w/highs mainly upper 80s to the lower 90s
* A few showers/t-storms possible Thu night/Fri but best chance Sat
  afternoon/evening ahead of cold front
* Turning much cooler Sun and especially Mon along the coast


Details...

Wednesday...Closed upper level low lifts northeast of our region
allowing for rising heights/warmer mid level temps.  More
importantly, surface winds will turn to the west which makes a huge
difference in afternoon high temps this time of year.  Given 850T
between 13c/14c and plenty of late May sunshine, high temps should
be in the mid to upper 80s for most including Boston, as any sea
breezes that develop along the Eastern MA coast will be overcome by
increasing gradient by afternoon.  It will be a bit cooler on the
south coast/Cape/Islands, but still should see highs well into the
70s to near 80.

Dry weather will dominate Wednesday, but there is a low risk of a
spot shower/t-storm during the afternoon/early evening across the
interior.  Limiting factors though will be dry mid levels and lack
of low level forcing.

Wednesday night...Other than a low risk for a spot shower/t-storm
across the interior during the evening dry weather is expected
behind a weak cold front. Low temps will only fall back into the 50s
in most locations with 60 to 65 in some of the urban centers.  A
touch of patchy fog may develop in the typically prone locations
toward daybreak.

Thursday...Upper level ridging across the Southeast U.S. continues
to nose into southern New England.  This will result in plenty of
sunshine and with warm mid level temps, highs again should reach
well into the 80s in most locations.  However, gradient will be
weaker allowing for sea breezes to develop on the immediate Eastern
MA coast including Boston by early afternoon. High temps will still
likely reach well up into the 70s to near 80 in this region before
sea breezes develop and temps fall a bit. Should remain dry given
lack of forcing and upper level ridging nosing into this region.

Thursday night and Friday...A shortwave will lift northeast into
northern New England Thu night/Fri.  While the best forcing will to
our north, a few showers/t-storms are possible with the best chance
across western and northern MA.  Certainly not expecting a washout
though and the majority of the Thu night/Fri will be dry.
Still looks like a warm afternoon with temps into the 80s, but it
may be cooler across Northeast MA depending on location of backdoor
cold front.

Saturday...A hot day with westerly flow and 850T near 16c.  This
should yield highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s for most locations.
Dewpoints into the 60s will make it feel somewhat muggy.
Pre-frontal trough ahead of an approaching cold front may trigger
scattered showers/thunderstorms mainly Saturday afternoon and
evening.

Sunday and Monday...High pressure over the Canadian Maritimes will
build south into New England.  So despite rather high height fields,
northeast low level flow will result in much cooler temps Sun and
especially Mon particularly along the coast.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Through 12Z...Moderate confidence.

Mainly VFR across central and western areas, except locally MVFR
in any heavier showers and isolated TSRA. Across eastern MA/RI,
MVFR- IFR CIGS/local IFR VSBYS in locally +SHRA and isolated TSRA.
Areas of LIFR across SE MA, Cape Cod and the Islands in -SHRA and
fog.

Today...Moderate confidence.

General MVFR-IFR CIGS through midday, then slow improvement but
may linger through the afternoon along E coastal MA. Areas of
MVFR-IFR VSBY across central and eastern areas should improve by
midday. Isolated TSRA with locally heavy rainfall. Low risk of
small hail across CT valley during the midday and afternoon.
Light E-NE winds back to N-NW during the afternoon.

Tonight...Moderate confidence.

Isolated SHRA/TSRA lingers across central and N MA through this
evening, then ending. Patchy fog lingers along E coastal MA with
MVFR-IFR VSBYS, while fog redevelops away from the coast with
areas of MVFR VSBYS. Light/vrbl winds.

KBOS TAF...Moderate confidence. MVFR CIGS may become briefly IFR
through 13Z-14Z. VFR VSBYS may become locally MVFR in any showers
through mid morning. Low risk for TSRA through 14Z, then again
after 18Z today. CIGS improve to VFR by 22Z. Mainly VFR tonight.
Low chance of MVFR VSBYS in patchy fog after 05Z. Light NE winds
become Light/vrbl tonight.

KBDL TAF...Moderate confidence. Mainly VFR conditions. Local MVFR
in any showers through the day. Low risk of TSRA. Mainly VFR
tonight, though VSBYS may lower to MVFR in patchy fog after 05Z.

Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/...

Wednesday and Thursday...High confidence. VFR conditions other
than a few hours of patchy ground fog possible toward daybreak Thu
in the typically prone locations.

Thursday night and Friday...Moderate confidence.  VFR conditions
likely dominate but some brief MVFR conditions possible in a few
showers/t-storms mainly across the interior.

Saturday...Moderate confidence. Mainly VFR conditions but brief
MVFR- IFR conditions possible Saturday afternoon/evening in
scattered showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Through 12Z...Moderate confidence.

Expect E-NE winds less than 15 kt and seas below 5 ft. Visibility
reductions in showers, widely scattered thunderstorms and patchy
fog. Today...Moderate Confidence.

E-NE winds less than 15 kt. Seas will build up to 5-6 ft across
the outer waters from Cape Cod southward, mainly in S-SE swells
this afternoon. Local visibility restrictions in scattered
showers, isolated thunderstorms and patchy fog. Winds will back
to N during the afternoon. Small crafts have been issued for
portions of the outer waters.

Tonight...Moderate Confidence.

N-NW winds as low pressure moves offshore, but remaining light.
E-SE swells will remain at 5-6 ft through around midnight, then
will slowly subside toward daybreak. Small crafts will continue
for portions of the outer waters. May see local visibility
restrictions in patchy fog. Low risk of isolated showers early.

Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/...High Confidence.

Winds and seas will remain below Small Craft Advisory thresholds
the majority of the period with the exception being Wednesday
night. Some brief near shore southwest wind gusts of 20 to 25
knots are likely Wed afternoon...which will result in some choppy
seas. In addition, long southwest fetch may bring a period of 5
foot seas across our southern waters Wednesday night which may
require headlines.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas from 1 PM this
     afternoon to 4 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ254-255.
     Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas from 3 PM this
     afternoon to 1 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Frank/EVT
NEAR TERM...EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...Frank
AVIATION...Frank/EVT
MARINE...Frank/EVT




000
FXUS61 KOKX 240900
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
500 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure south of Cape Cod tracks northeast today and tonight,
moving along the New England coast. High pressure builds in
briefly for late tonight and Wednesday. A cold front moves
through late Wednesday night into Thursday morning and lifts north
as a warm front later in the day Thursday. High pressure remains
situated over the western Atlantic through the first half of the
weekend. A backdoor cold front moves through on late Saturday
night into Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A weakening low south of Cape Cod tracks slowly northeast through
today. A weak surface trough extends back from the low into the
lower Hudson Valley. Meanwhile an upper closed, and nearly cutoff
low, east southeast of the DELMARVA, as seen on the water vapor
loop, drifts north to northeast and begins to fill and get picked
up by the northern stream. With areas of energy rotating around
the low and the surface low, showers will continue through today.
With weak surface and mixed layer instability along with a cold
pool associated with the upper low, isolated thunderstorms will
be possible. Have kept a mention through the day, however, believe
the best chances will be this morning through 18Z. Afterward low
level warm advection sets up and caps the area lessening threat of
thunder. Some weak elevated cape is available in the afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
Tonight the upper low continues to fill and becomes an open wave
after 06Z and the northern stream carries the low into Maine and
Nova Scotia, merging with low pressure over eastern Canada. The
surface low becomes nearly indistinguishable by late tonight, also
merging with a surface low over eastern Canada. By 00Z
precipitation is quickly ending as heights rise from as weak upper
ridging builds to the west. This ridge builds through Wednesday
with dry weather late this evening through Wednesday.

Warmer air continues to move into the region tonight through
Wednesday at the lower and mid levels. A dramatic warmup is
expected across the entire region as a westerly flow allows even
coastal areas to warm to well above seasonal normals.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A weak area of low pressure over the Canadian Maritimes will push a
cold front through the area Wednesday night. This front will then
head quickly back north as a warm front, moving through Thursday
afternoon.

Thereafter, there will be a prolonged period of southerly flow as
surface high pressure settles over the Western Atlantic. At the same
time, ridging aloft will mean rising heights and therefore, warming
temperatures, mainly for areas away from the coast. Closer to the
coast, flow off the cooler ocean waters will keep these areas a few
degrees cooler than inland. With a southerly flow, dewpoints will
also be on the rise. By the weekend, dewpoints could be in the lower
60s, making it slightly uncomfortable for some.

The 00Z ECMWF and the 00Z GFS are in better agreement on the passage
of a back door cold front late Saturday night into Sunday (quicker
than previously forecast). Thereafter, the 2 models differ. The GFS
continues to nose a strong high pressure from southeastern Canada
into the area, while the ECMWF keeps this high off the Atlantic
coast, and is weaker. Though the 00Z ECMWF does nose the high
pressure farther inland than the previous run. The GFS solution
would keep the area dry for the beginning of next week, while the
ECMWF would keep it unsettled. Due to the uncertainty, a blend of
models seems reasonable.

The cold frontal passages Wednesday night looks to come through dry
with limited moisture to work with. There may be some showers and
thunderstorms with the warm frontal passage on Thursday, mainly
inland as the lower temperatures over the coastal areas stabilizes
those areas. A thermal trough sets up over inland areas for Friday
and Saturday, which will mean diurnal showers and thunderstorms for
these areas. Showers and thunderstorms will also be possible with
the backdoor cold front passage late Sunday into Sunday night. This
will not be a continuous rainfall event from Friday through Sunday
night.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Low pressure moves north toward Cape Cod this afternoon.

Primarily MVFR to VFR through late morning, and VFR thereafter.
Low to moderate confidence flight category forecast. Rain will be
steadiest through mid-morning, then more scattered thereafter.
Isolated thunder possible at any time today, but timing and
location not certain enough for inclusion in TAFs.

Low confidence with wind direction, however speeds should at least
remain below 10 kt.

...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information...including hourly TAF wind component fcsts can
be found at: http://www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: MVFR might not occur at all. Timing of south
wind shift could be off by a few hours.

KLGA TAF Comments: MVFR might not occur at all. Timing of
southeast wind shift could be off by a few hours.

KEWR TAF Comments: MVFR might not occur at all. Timing of
southeast wind shift could be off by a few hours.

The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is GREEN...which implies
slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud.

KTEB TAF Comments: MVFR might not occur at all. Timing of
southeast wind shift could be off by a few hours.

KHPN TAF Comments: MVFR might not occur at all. Timing of
southeast wind shift could be off by a few hours.

KISP TAF Comments: MVFR might not occur at all. Timing of south
wind shift could be off by a few hours.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z Wednesday through Saturday...
.Tuesday night-Thursday...VFR.
.Thursday night...Low chance of MVFR in showers.
.Friday-Saturday...MVFR possible in afternoon/evening tstms.

&&

.MARINE...
A weak pressure gradient force will be across the waters today
through Wednesday as a weakening low south of Cape Cod tracks to
the northeast through tonight and high pressure builds in late
tonight and Wednesday.

The only hazard across the forecast waters will be isolated
thunderstorms today into early this evening. Otherwise no
hazardous conditions are expected.

Winds and waves should remain below SCA criteria for the long term
with light a pressure gradient.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Rainfall amounts of 1/3 to 3/4 of an inch are possible today into
this evening with the highest amounts across western Long Island,
southwestern Connecticut, and Northeastern New Jersey. Locally
higher amounts will be possible in isolated thunderstorms.

No concerns for hydrology Wednesday through Monday.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JP/MET
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JP/MET
HYDROLOGY...JP/MET




000
FXUS61 KBOX 240825
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
424 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

Scattered showers and few embedded thunderstorms this morning will
focus themselves primarily across Western MA and Northern CT by
afternoon.  An upper level ridge of high pressure will then bring
very warm to borderline hot weather to most of the region Wednesday
through Saturday, except for times of cooler temperatures on the
immediate coast. A few showers and thunderstorms are possible
Thursday night into Friday, but a better chance exists Saturday
afternoon and evening ahead of the cold front.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
1110 PM update...

Light showers rotating westward around cutoff H5 low pressure near
or just off the mid Atlc coast reaching the S coast of RI into N
central and NE CT at 03Z. Looks like most of the activity will
remain W of E MA and more of RI, but can not rule out widely sct
showers pretty much across the remainder of the region into the
early morning hours. Then, toward sunrise, will start to see sct
showers pretty much anywhere as weak short wave rotates westward
in the cyclonic upper flow to the south, as well as decreasing
temp/dewpoint spreads especially near the coast. With the onshore
wind, will see low clouds and patchy fog moving in. Would not be
surprised to see some spotty drizzle as well.

18Z GFS and new 00Z NAM both continue to signal increasing
instability, with total totals up to the lower 50s, surface based
LIs down to zero to -2 and K indices to the lower 30s around or
after 09Z. NAM appears too robust considering the lack of
convection into the region, so used a blend of the GFS/NAM with a
bit more weight to the GFS. Noting some CG and in cloud lightning
S of 40N late tonight, but appears this will rotate S of the
region for now. Have kept mention of thunder in the forecast
toward daybreak into Tuesday morning, though went with isolated
wording.

Remainder of forecast in pretty good shape, but have updated to
bring conditions current.

Previous discussion...

Low pressure wobbles N evolving into its dying phase undergoing
occlusion. During this morphology, focus is on the crux of mid-
level vortmax energy and parent weak low-level convergence
rounding W-NW round the low into S coastal New England. Should
see decent low to mid level forcing with some venting aloft, along
the leading edge of which a band of light to moderate rain should
emerge. Also isolated thunderstorms are possible given marginal
instability and weak shear parent to expected lift, but such
activity should be non severe with the main threats being
lightning and locally heavy rain.

A consensus of high-res and mos-guidance performed, confidence is
for a band of activity to pivot NW across S New England settling N
to S across W New England and along the high terrain. This keeps a
good chunk of E/SE MA in chance PoPs.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
Tuesday...

Breaking down. Low chokes itself off entraining drier air as it
stacks and undergoes occlusion within its dying phase. The trowaling
and comma shape to the low persists albeit weaker seemingly over W
portions of New England parent with low level convergent flow along
the E slopes of high terrain and forcing per rotating mid-level
vortex energy. But to the E we could see some improvement with
clouds becoming broken and perhaps some hints of sunshine. Thus can
not rule out partial clearing.

PoPs evolving with highest confidence over the Berkshires while
chance-scattered to the E/SE if forecast models are right in the
evolution of drier air wrapping into the system. A lot of wiggle
room and wobble with this system to which the high-res guidance is
not absolutely succinct but has a decent handle on the trend. Will
avoid high PoPs accordingly with the scattered to broken nature of
the low. Thunder does remain a possibility with continued marginal
instability and weak shear. Think isolated chances and will prevail
accordingly.

Cooler day with clouds in abundance and E/NE flow. Highs up into the
60s. An edge warmer to the W as conditions improve late in the day
with winds shifting out of the W/NW.

Tuesday Night...

The end. Low continues to undergo its dying phase choking upon drier
air as it peels off to the E. Comma head over the W sweeps E across
S New England per a consensus of high-res forecast trends, but by
this point the activity is all but scattered. Should see most of the
wet weather by consensus conclude by midnight behind which W/NW flow
prevails. Anticipated clearing and light winds, would expect lows to
drop into the 40s, and considering the recent rains, can not rule
out some dense fog development if conditions are right.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

Highlights...

* Very warm Wed/Thu/Fri with highs well up into the 80s except
  cooler immediate coast at times
* Hot Saturday afternoon w/highs mainly upper 80s to the lower 90s
* A few showers/t-storms possible Thu night/Fri but best chance Sat
  afternoon/evening ahead of cold front
* Turning much cooler Sun and especially Mon along the coast


Details...

Wednesday...Closed upper level low lifts northeast of our region
allowing for rising heights/warmer mid level temps.  More
importantly, surface winds will turn to the west which makes a huge
difference in afternoon high temps this time of year.  Given 850T
between 13c/14c and plenty of late May sunshine, high temps should
be in the mid to upper 80s for most including Boston, as any sea
breezes that develop along the Eastern MA coast will be overcome by
increasing gradient by afternoon.  It will be a bit cooler on the
south coast/Cape/Islands, but still should see highs well into the
70s to near 80.

Dry weather will dominate Wednesday, but there is a low risk of a
spot shower/t-storm during the afternoon/early evening across the
interior.  Limiting factors though will be dry mid levels and lack
of low level forcing.

Wednesday night...Other than a low risk for a spot shower/t-storm
across the interior during the evening dry weather is expected
behind a weak cold front. Low temps will only fall back into the 50s
in most locations with 60 to 65 in some of the urban centers.  A
touch of patchy fog may develop in the typically prone locations
toward daybreak.

Thursday...Upper level ridging across the Southeast U.S. continues
to nose into southern New England.  This will result in plenty of
sunshine and with warm mid level temps, highs again should reach
well into the 80s in most locations.  However, gradient will be
weaker allowing for sea breezes to develop on the immediate Eastern
MA coast including Boston by early afternoon. High temps will still
likely reach well up into the 70s to near 80 in this region before
sea breezes develop and temps fall a bit. Should remain dry given
lack of forcing and upper level ridging nosing into this region.

Thursday night and Friday...A shortwave will lift northeast into
northern New England Thu night/Fri.  While the best forcing will to
our north, a few showers/t-storms are possible with the best chance
across western and northern MA.  Certainly not expecting a washout
though and the majority of the Thu night/Fri will be dry.
Still looks like a warm afternoon with temps into the 80s, but it
may be cooler across Northeast MA depending on location of backdoor
cold front.

Saturday...A hot day with westerly flow and 850T near 16c.  This
should yield highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s for most locations.
Dewpoints into the 60s will make it feel somewhat muggy.
Pre-frontal trough ahead of an approaching cold front may trigger
scattered showers/thunderstorms mainly Saturday afternoon and
evening.

Sunday and Monday...High pressure over the Canadian Maritimes will
build south into New England.  So despite rather high height fields,
northeast low level flow will result in much cooler temps Sun and
especially Mon particularly along the coast.


&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Tonight/...

Overnight...Moderate Confidence.

Mainly VFR through 04Z-06Z, except LIFR CIGS/MVFR-IFR VSBYS
moving onshore from Cape Cod to along E coastal Mass. Should see
MVFR- IFR CIGS/MVFR VSBYS move W to about KORH-KIJD with spotty
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS across the CT valley mainly after 06Z. Scattered
showers with MVFR conditions across N CT/W RI into CT valley.
Isolated thunder possible after 08Z mainly near S coast. Light
E-NE winds.

Tuesday...Moderate Confidence.

SHRA and chance TSRA continue with greatest confidence over W
terminals. Widespread MVFR/IFR impacts begin to shift E with the
usherance of winds backing out of the W/NW. Gusts of around 15 kts
possible.

Tuesday Night...Moderate confidence.

Continued clearing trend W to E with W/NW winds. Improving to VFR.
It is perhaps at the start of the period that MVFR/IFR will only
linger along the E coast of MA.

KBOS TAF...Sct showers will move across the terminal tonight and
into tomorrow. Low prob for some thunder. VFR will drop to
MVFR/IFR after 06z.

KBDL TAF...Confident the terminal will see a fair share of -RA
beginning around midnight and continuing through much of Tuesday
before clearing out late. Moderate prob for TSRA. MVFR conditions
after 06z.

Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/...

Wednesday and Thursday...High confidence.  VFR conditions other than
a few hours of patchy ground fog possible toward daybreak Thu in the
typically prone locations.

Thursday night and Friday...Moderate confidence.  VFR conditions
likely dominate but some brief MVFR conditions possible in a few
showers/t-storms mainly across the interior.

Saturday...Moderate confidence. Mainly VFR conditions but brief MVFR-
IFR conditions possible Saturday afternoon/evening in scattered
showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Overnight and Tuesday...Moderate Confidence.

E-NE winds with gusts up to 15 kt mainly overnight, then
diminishing Tuesday. Seas 4 feet or less. Visibility reductions
in areas of fog moving W from Mass Bay and E of Cape Cod overnight,
local mist as well. Scattered showers along the S coast of RI,
then continue to develop across entire S coast, possibly reaching
to E coastal areas by daybreak. Isolated thunderstorms after 08Z
through mid morning Tuesday possible.

Tuesday Night...Moderate Confidence.

Winds back out of the W/NW with departure of the low. Change in
wind direction against a E/SE swell, could see some wave heights
up to 5 feet on the outer waters requiring small craft advisories.
Aside, rain comes to an end and visibilities improve if they had
not done so during the day Tuesday.

Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/...High Confidence.

Winds and seas will remain below Small Craft Advisory thresholds the
majority of the period with the exception being Wednesday night.
Some brief near shore southwest wind gusts of 20 to 25 knots are
likely Wed afternoon...which will result in some choppy seas. In
addition, long southwest fetch may bring a period of 5 foot seas
across our southern waters Wednesday night which may require
headlines.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas from 1 PM this
     afternoon to 4 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ254-255.
     Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas from 3 PM this
     afternoon to 1 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Frank
NEAR TERM...Dunten/EVT
SHORT TERM...Sipprell
LONG TERM...Frank
AVIATION...Frank/Sipprell/EVT
MARINE...Frank/Sipprell/EVT




000
FXUS61 KOKX 240817
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
417 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure south of Cape Cod tracks northeast today and tonight,
moving along the New England coast. High pressure builds in
briefly for late tonight and Wednesday. A cold front moves
through late Wednesday night into Thursday morning and lifts north
as a warm front later in the day Thursday. High pressure remains
situated over the western Atlantic through the first half of the
weekend. A backdoor cold front moves through on late Saturday
night into Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A weakening low south of Cape Cod tracks slowly northeast through
today. A weak surface trough extends back from the low into the
lower Hudson Valley. Meanwhile an upper closed, and nearly cutoff
low, east southeast of the DELMARVA, as seen on the water vapor
loop, drifts north to northeast and begins to fill and get picked
up by the northern stream. With areas of energy rotating around
the low and the surface low, showers will continue through today.
With weak surface and mixed layer instability along with a cold
pool associated with the upper low, isolated thunderstorms will
be possible. Have kept a mention through the day, however, believe
the best chances will be this morning through 18Z. Afterward low
level warm advection sets up and caps the area lessening threat of
thunder. Some weak elevated cape is available in the afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
Tonight the upper low continues to fill and becomes an open wave
after 06Z and the northern stream carrys the low into Maine and
Nova Scotia, merging with low pressure over eastern Canada. The
surface low becomes nearly indistinguishable by late tonight, also
merging with a surface low over eastern Canada. By 00Z
precipitation is quickly ending as heights rise from as weak upper
ridging builds to the west. This ridge builds through Wednesday
with dry weather late this evening through Wednesday.

Warmer air continues to move into the region tonight through
Wednesday at the lower and mid levels. A dramatic warmup is
expected across the entire region as a westerly flow allows even
coastal areas to warm to well above seasonal normals.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A weak area of low pressure over the Canadian Maritimes will push a
cold front through the area Wednesday night. This front will then
head quickly back north as a warm front, moving through Thursday
afternoon.

Thereafter, there will be a prolonged period of southerly flow as
surface high pressure settles over the Western Atlantic. At the same
time, ridging aloft will mean rising heights and therefore, warming
temperatures, mainly for areas away from the coast. Closer to the
coast, flow off the cooler ocean waters will keep these areas a few
degrees cooler than inland. With a southerly flow, dewpoints will
also be on the rise. By the weekend, dewpoints could be in the lower
60s, making it slightly uncomfortable for some.

The 00Z ECMWF and the 00Z GFS are in better agreement on the passage
of a back door cold front late Saturday night into Sunday (quicker
than previously forecast). Thereafter, the 2 models differ. The GFS
continues to nose a strong high pressure from southeastern Canada
into the area, while the ECMWF keeps this high off the Atlantic
coast, and is weaker. Though the 00Z ECMWF does nose the high
pressure farther inland than the previous run. The GFS solution
would keep the area dry for the beginning of next week, while the
ECMWF would keep it unsettled. Due to the uncertainty, a blend of
models seems reasonable.

The cold frontal passages Wednesday night looks to come through dry
with limited moisture to work with. There may be some showers and
thunderstorms with the warm frontal passage on Thursday, mainly
inland as the lower temperatures over the coastal areas stabilizes
those areas. A thermal trough sets up over inland areas for Friday
and Saturday, which will mean diurnal showers and thunderstorms for
these areas. Showers and thunderstorms will also be possible with
the backdoor cold front passage late Sunday into Sunday night. This
will not be a continuous rainfall event from Friday through Sunday
night.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Low pressure moves north toward Cape Cod this afternoon.

Primarily MVFR through this morning. Some IFR possible as well,
primarily east of the city terminals. Improvement to VFR expected
this afternoon. Rain will be steadiest through mid-morning, then
more scattered thereafter. Isolated thunder possible at any time
today, but timing and location not certain enough for inclusion
in TAFs.

Low confidence with wind direction, however speeds should at least
remain below 10 kt.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z Wednesday through Saturday...
.Tuesday night-Thursday...VFR.
.Thursday night...Low chance of MVFR in showers.
.Friday-Saturday...MVFR possible in afternoon/evening tstms.

&&

.MARINE...
A weak pressure gradient force will be across the waters today
through Wednesday as a weakening low south of Cape Cod tracks to
the northeast through tonight and high pressure builds in late
tonight and Wednesday.

The only hazard across the forecast waters will be isolated
thunderstorms today into early this evening. Otherwise no
hazardous conditions are expected.

Winds and waves should remain below SCA criteria for the long term
with light a pressure gradient.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Rainfall amounts of 1/3 to 3/4 of an inch are possible today into
this evening with the highest amounts across western Long Island,
southwestern Connecticut, and Northeastern New Jersey. Locally
higher amounts will be possible in isolated thunderstorms.

No concerns for hydrology Wednesday through Monday.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JP/MET
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JP/MET
HYDROLOGY...JP/MET




000
FXUS61 KOKX 240628
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
228 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
An area of low pressure will slowly track from off the Mid-
Atlantic coast overnight to near Nova Scotia by late Tuesday
night. High pressure briefly builds across the area Wednesday
ahead of cold front approaching from the northwest, the front then
briefly passes through the area Thursday morning before returning
northward as a warm front. High pressure then remains over the
western Atlantic through the weekend with an inland thermal trough
each afternoon. A backdoor cold front drops across the area
Sunday night into Monday morning.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Updated pops and weather, based on radar, with widespread showers
across much of the area as the low continues to back showers
through the region. Also, with some surface instability and
isolated thunder, mainly over the waters, have included isolated
thunder for the remainder of the overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
Showers will become more scattered to isolated in nature as the
day progresses on Tuesday...as the cutoff low moves to the east.
However, its cold pool will still be near enough to warrant a
slight chance of thunderstorms throughout the area through the
day. For highs on Tuesday, a blend of ECS/MET/MAV guidance, NAM
2-meter temperatures and a mix down from 950-925 hPa per BUFKIT
soundings was used. Highs should be near to slightly below normal.

Any lingering showers over far eastern zones should come to an end
early Tuesday evening as the cutoff low exits to the northeast.
There should also be some partial clearing as the night
progresses. Lows Tuesday night were based on a blend of
MET/MAV/ECS guidance and NAM 2-meter temperatures, with readings
forecast to be up to 5 degrees above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
The main emphasis this period will be building heights as an upper
ridge establishes itself across the eastern third of the country.
This will result in considerably warmer and more humid conditions as
the sub-tropical ridge set up across the western Atlantic.

The unknowns continue to be with the amount of short wave energy
emerging from the western trough and rounding the upper ridge across
eastern Canada. A day ago there was some consensus in dropping a
cold front across the area Friday morning with a low-level easterly
flow undercutting the warm ridging aloft. This very much put in
question high temps for Fri with cooler air moving in off the
Atlantic. Now, 24 hours later, both the 12Z operational ECMWF and
GFS take a cold front across the area Wed night into Thu morning and
then quickly return it northward as the upper ridge axis passes to
the east. Thereafter, the upper ridge continues to amplify across
the east ahead of an upper trough lifting north across the plains
and upper midwest. A backdoor cold front then comes into question
Sun into Mon, with the ECMWF about 24 hours earlier. It bring the
front through Sun morning. while the GFS is Mon morning. Once
again,this all hinges on the magnitude of the short wave energy
rounding the top of the eastern ridge as well as with the
interaction of a northern branch trough moving eastern Canada. For
the time, will side with a consensus forecast and keep the boundary
north of the area Sun. This could potentially throw a wrinkle into
the forecast Sun with cooler conditions.

As for rainfall, it mainly appears to be diurnal in nature with
aft/early evening convection.  The best chances will be across the
interior due to instability from higher temps. The possible cold
frontal passage Thu morning looks to be mainly dry with limited
moisture and instability. Depending how fast the warm front lifts
north on Thu, this could serve as a focus for convection. Confidence
is low for any significant precipitation. Before the upper ridge
amplifies further Fri into Sat, the southern edge of the
westerlies always need to be watched for a possible MCS.

Highs during this period will be unseasonably warm with portions of
NYC and the interior in the low to mid 80s and coastal sections
generally in the 70s. This is above normal by about 10 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Low pressure moves north toward Cape Cod this afternoon.

Primarily MVFR through this morning. Some IFR possible as well,
primarily east of the city terminals. Improvement to VFR expected
this afternoon. Rain will be steadiest through mid-morning, then
more scattered thereafter. Isolated thunder possible at any time
today, but timing and location not certain enough for inclusion
in TAFs.

Low confidence with wind direction, however speeds should at least
remain below 10 kt.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z Wednesday through Saturday...
.Tuesday night-Thursday...VFR.
.Thursday night...Low chance of MVFR in showers.
.Friday-Saturday...MVFR possible in afternoon/evening tstms.

&&

.MARINE...
Updated the weather over the waters with widespread showers as low
south of Montauk Point continues to back showers across the
region. With some instability have updated to add in isolated
thunder through the overnight.

A relaxed pressure gradient over the waters around Long Island
will keep winds at 10 kt or less and seas less than 5 ft tonight
through Tuesday night.

Sub-sca conditions will prevail Wednesday through Saturday as well,
with the lack of a strong pressure gradient or significant swell.
The flow will generally be southerly in nature and looks to be
strongest on Wed with gusts up to 20 kt during the aft/eve hours
on the ocean waters ahead of an approaching cold front.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Showers with possibly embedded thunderstorms should produce from
around 1/3 to 2/3 of an inch of rain through Tuesday afternoon,
with locally higher amounts possible in areas experiencing any
stronger convection.

Widespread significant rainfall is not expected from Tuesday Night
through Saturday.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...




000
FXUS61 KOKX 240607
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
207 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
An area of low pressure will slowly track from off the Mid-
Atlantic coast overnight to near Nova Scotia by late Tuesday
night. High pressure briefly builds across the area Wednesday
ahead of cold front approaching from the northwest, the front then
briefly passes through the area Thursday morning before returning
northward as a warm front. High pressure then remains over the
western Atlantic through the weekend with an inland thermal trough
each afternoon. A backdoor cold front drops across the area Sunday
night into Monday morning.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
With the area of rain moving across the eastern zones at this
time, and rotating westward in response to the low south of
Montauk Point at 04Z, have increased pops to categorical. And then
moves the categorical pops westward. Temperatures and dew points
were on track with just minor adjustments for current conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
Showers will become more scattered to isolated in nature as the
day progresses on Tuesday...as the cutoff low moves to the east.
However, its cold pool will still be near enough to warrant a
slight chance of thunderstorms throughout the area through the
day. For highs on Tuesday, a blend of ECS/MET/MAV guidance, NAM
2-meter temperatures and a mix down from 950-925 hPa per BUFKIT
soundings was used. Highs should be near to slightly below normal.

Any lingering showers over far eastern zones should come to an end
early Tuesday evening as the cutoff low exits to the northeast.
There should also be some partial clearing as the night
progresses. Lows Tuesday night were based on a blend of
MET/MAV/ECS guidance and NAM 2-meter temperatures, with readings
forecast to be up to 5 degrees above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
The main emphasis this period will be building heights as an upper
ridge establishes itself across the eastern third of the country.
This will result in considerably warmer and more humid conditions as
the sub-tropical ridge set up across the western Atlantic.

The unknowns continue to be with the amount of short wave energy
emerging from the western trough and rounding the upper ridge across
eastern Canada. A day ago there was some consensus in dropping a
cold front across the area Friday morning with a low-level easterly
flow undercutting the warm ridging aloft. This very much put in
question high temps for Fri with cooler air moving in off the
Atlantic. Now, 24 hours later, both the 12Z operational ECMWF and
GFS take a cold front across the area Wed night into Thu morning and
then quickly return it northward as the upper ridge axis passes to
the east. Thereafter, the upper ridge continues to amplify across
the east ahead of an upper trough lifting north across the plains
and upper midwest. A backdoor cold front then comes into question
Sun into Mon, with the ECMWF about 24 hours earlier. It bring the
front through Sun morning. while the GFS is Mon morning. Once
again,this all hinges on the magnitude of the short wave energy
rounding the top of the eastern ridge as well as with the
interaction of a northern branch trough moving eastern Canada. For
the time, will side with a consensus forecast and keep the boundary
north of the area Sun. This could potentially throw a wrinkle into
the forecast Sun with cooler conditions.

As for rainfall, it mainly appears to be diurnal in nature with
aft/early evening convection.  The best chances will be across the
interior due to instability from higher temps. The possible cold
frontal passage Thu morning looks to be mainly dry with limited
moisture and instability. Depending how fast the warm front lifts
north on Thu, this could serve as a focus for convection. Confidence
is low for any significant precipitation. Before the upper ridge
amplifies further Fri into Sat, the southern edge of the
westerlies always need to be watched for a possible MCS.

Highs during this period will be unseasonably warm with portions of
NYC and the interior in the low to mid 80s and coastal sections
generally in the 70s. This is above normal by about 10 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Low pressure moves north toward Cape Cod this afternoon.

Primarily MVFR through this morning. Some IFR possible as well,
primarily east of the city terminals. Improvement to VFR expected
this afternoon. Rain will be steadiest through mid-morning, then
more scattered thereafter. Isolated thunder possible at any time
today, but timing and location not certain enough for inclusion
in TAFs.

Low confidence with wind direction, however speeds should at least
remain below 10 kt.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z Wednesday through Saturday...
.Tuesday night-Thursday...VFR.
.Thursday night...Low chance of MVFR in showers.
.Friday-Saturday...MVFR possible in afternoon/evening tstms.

&&

.MARINE...
No changes at this time.

A relaxed pressure gradient over the waters around Long Island
will keep winds at 10 kt or less and seas less than 5 ft tonight
through Tuesday night.

Sub-sca conditions will prevail Wednesday through Saturday as well,
with the lack of a strong pressure gradient or significant swell.
The flow will generally be southerly in nature and looks to be
strongest on Wed with gusts up to 20 kt during the aft/eve hours
on the ocean waters ahead of an approaching cold front.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Showers with possibly embedded thunderstorms should produce from
around 1/3 to 2/3 of an inch of rain through Tuesday afternoon,
with locally higher amounts possible in areas experiencing any
stronger convection.

Widespread significant rainfall is not expected from Tuesday Night
through Saturday.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

AVIATION...JC



  [top]

000
FXUS61 KALY 240602
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
200 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure tracking close to southern New England through today
will bring the chance for showers and perhaps an afternoon
thunderstorm to locations from the Capital Region south and east.
Weak high pressure will build east off the mid Atlantic states and
summer like weather will spread across our region from the southwest
through the end of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 145 AM EDT, clouds continued to slowly work north and westward
as a low pressure continued to track northward off the New Jersey
coast, toward Long Island. Bands of mostly light rain were working
into the southeastern portions of Litchfield county and even into
Dutchess. There were lighter returns noted as far north as the
Capital region, but these appear to be more bands of mid level
clouds and perhaps a few sprinkles.

Areas underneath the canopy of clouds have seen temperatures halt,
held to the mild lower or even mid 60s. Further north and west of
the Capital region where cloud cover was considerably thinner,
temperatures had slipped into the 50s.

For the remainder of the overnight, expect cloud cover to continue
to slowly expand and thicken. This increase in cloud cover should
keep temperatures falling that much more. We raised overnight lows
about a category in most places so look for lows generally 55-60,
except 50-55 across the northwestern zones (Adirondacks) as cloud
cover should remain thinner there.

Bands of light to perhaps moderate rain showers should slowly push a
little further north and west, reaching the Capital region shortly
after sunrise.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
There is some consensus in guidance that the western edge of the
deeper clouds and better coverage of rain Tuesday should be from
about the Hudson Valley east through New England. So...showers in
the morning then showers and scattered thunderstorms in the
afternoon...lingering and decreasing in coverage Tuesday evening.
The upper low should steadily move northeast and allow for some
gradual clearing Tuesday night...with some patchy fog in places
depending on what areas see the most rain. Highs Tuesday in the
lower to mid 70s...but some upper 70s in western areas and maybe
parts of the southern Adirondacks where the coverage of clouds and
rain is expected to be the least.

On Wednesday...a weak upper impulse is expected to track
east...but mainly scrape northern areas with some scattered clouds
and isolated to scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms.
Boundary layer temperatures should warm a bit and winds are
expected to be west to northwest...which should help temperatures
to rise into the lower to mid 80s...some upper 70s to around 80
northern areas.

By Thursday...the weak boundary that sinks south into our region
Wednesday and Wednesday night should track back north as a warm
front...with again...some scattered clouds...and isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms. Boundary layer temperatures
warm a little more but winds should just be light. Temperatures
are expected to rise to the lower to mid 80s again...with upper
70s in northern areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
This will be an unsettled summer-like period with the risk of
showers and thunderstorms each day.  A warm front will begin to lift
through the region on Friday bringing unseasonable heat and humidity
to the region.  A high pressure ridge building in from the Atlantic
coupled with the lack of a frontal trigger should keep instability
at bay...perhaps just air mass style cells for the weekend.  High
pressure will re-position itself northward toward the Maritimes
coast...possibly setting up a backdoor front which will be just
south and west of our forecast area on Monday.  This could result in
temperatures a few degrees cooler.  But highs Friday through Sunday
will range from the mid 70s to the mid or upper 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
With increasing clouds, we do not expect much if any fog at any of
terminals overnight. Flying conditions look to remain VFR through at
least the morning peak.

Low pressure southeast of Long Island will continue to slowly track
northward toward southeast New England through the first half of
today.

Bands of light rain showers should begin impacting KPOU/KPSF before
12Z, reaching KALB shortly thereafter, and KGFL by 16Z. The rain
might be light enough for mainly VFR conditions. However we did
include a PROB30 at all the TAF sites for MVFR conditions due to a
reduction in visibility and cigs to 2-3 KFT midday into the
afternoon hours.

There is a slight chance for a rumble of thunder mainly south and
east of Albany but not enough confidence to mention in the TAFs in
any way.


Light and variable wind overnight will become north to northeast
once again later this morning and afternoon at 5-10 kt.


Outlook...

Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Low pressure tracking close to southern New England tonight into
Tuesday will bring the chance for showers and perhaps an afternoon
thunderstorm to locations from the Capital Region south and
east. Weak high pressure will build east off the mid Atlantic
states and summer like weather will spread across our region from
the southwest through the end of next week.

Minimum RH values Tuesday afternoon will range from the 35 to 50
percent range in the west to 60 to 70 percent in the east in
areas of the best chances for rain. On Wednesday...minimum RH
values will be 35 to 50 percent in southern areas and western New
England with 55 to 70 percent in the western Mohawk Valley and
southern Adirondacks where scattered showers and thunderstorms are
possible in the afternoon ahead of a weak cold front.

The surface wind will be light out of the north or northeast through
Tuesday, generally 5-9 MPH becoming more west on Wednesday at
10 to 15 mph...with a few gusts near 20 mph possible in the
afternoon.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydrologic issues are anticipated through at least
the next 5 days ending Friday.

Unsettled weather is expected with some showers and scattered
thunderstorms Tuesday. At this time amounts up to a tenth of an
inch in our northwestern zones, to quarter to half an inch in our
southeastern zones is anticipated. We do not expect this rainfall
to produce much if any rises on rivers streams and reservoirs.

There is another chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly from
Albany north on Wednesday with a backdoor cold front. More
scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible Thursday when the
weak cold front returns north. Any heavy rain in scattered
thunderstorms would be very localized.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/KL/NAS
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/KL/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS




000
FXUS61 KBOX 240353
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
1153 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
An area of low pressure will wobble north along the coast into
this evening and through Tuesday bringing with it showers and the
chance of thunderstorms. Warmer weather follows beginning Wednesday.
A weak front will move south of the region Wednesday night with
dry, warm weather for Thursday. The front will move north toward
southern New England as a warm front on Friday bringing scattered
showers and thunderstorms. The front will continue to drift slowly
north over the Memorial Day weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

1110 PM update...

Light showers rotating westward around cutoff H5 low pressure near
or just off the mid Atlc coast reaching the S coast of RI into N
central and NE CT at 03Z. Looks like most of the activity will
remain W of E MA and more of RI, but can not rule out widely sct
showers pretty much across the remainder of the region into the
early morning hours. Then, toward sunrise, will start to see sct
showers pretty much anywhere as weak short wave rotates westward
in the cyclonic upper flow to the south, as well as decreasing
temp/dewpoint spreads especially near the coast. With the onshore
wind, will see low clouds and patchy fog moving in. Would not be
surprised to see some spotty drizzle as well.

18Z GFS and new 00Z NAM both continue to signal increasing
instability, with total totals up to the lower 50s, surface based
LIs down to zero to -2 and K indices to the lower 30s around or
after 09Z. NAM appears too robust considering the lack of
convection into the region, so used a blend of the GFS/NAM with a
bit more weight to the GFS. Noting some CG and in cloud lightning
S of 40N late tonight, but appears this will rotate S of the
region for now. Have kept mention of thunder in the forecast
toward daybreak into Tuesday morning, though went with isolated
wording.

Remainder of forecast in pretty good shape, but have updated to
bring conditions current.

Previous discussion...

Low pressure wobbles N evolving into its dying phase undergoing
occlusion. During this morphology, focus is on the crux of mid-
level vortmax energy and parent weak low-level convergence
rounding W-NW round the low into S coastal New England. Should
see decent low to mid level forcing with some venting aloft, along
the leading edge of which a band of light to moderate rain should
emerge. Also isolated thunderstorms are possible given marginal
instability and weak shear parent to expected lift, but such
activity should be non severe with the main threats being
lightning and locally heavy rain.

A consensus of high-res and mos-guidance performed, confidence is
for a band of activity to pivot NW across S New England settling N
to S across W New England and along the high terrain. This keeps a
good chunk of E/SE MA in chance PoPs.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

Tuesday...

Breaking down. Low chokes itself off entraining drier air as it
stacks and undergoes occlusion within its dying phase. The trowaling
and comma shape to the low persists albeit weaker seemingly over W
portions of New England parent with low level convergent flow along
the E slopes of high terrain and forcing per rotating mid-level
vortex energy. But to the E we could see some improvement with
clouds becoming broken and perhaps some hints of sunshine. Thus can
not rule out partial clearing.

PoPs evolving with highest confidence over the Berkshires while
chance-scattered to the E/SE if forecast models are right in the
evolution of drier air wrapping into the system. A lot of wiggle
room and wobble with this system to which the high-res guidance is
not absolutely succinct but has a decent handle on the trend. Will
avoid high PoPs accordingly with the scattered to broken nature of
the low. Thunder does remain a possibility with continued marginal
instability and weak shear. Think isolated chances and will prevail
accordingly.

Cooler day with clouds in abundance and E/NE flow. Highs up into the
60s. An edge warmer to the W as conditions improve late in the day
with winds shifting out of the W/NW.

Tuesday Night...

The end. Low continues to undergo its dying phase choking upon drier
air as it peels off to the E. Comma head over the W sweeps E across
S New England per a consensus of high-res forecast trends, but by
this point the activity is all but scattered. Should see most of the
wet weather by consensus conclude by midnight behind which W/NW flow
prevails. Anticipated clearing and light winds, would expect lows to
drop into the 40s, and considering the recent rains, can not rule
out some dense fog development if conditions are right.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* Significantly warmer and dry Wednesday and Thursday
* Above average temperatures will continue Friday into Sat
* Hit or miss showers with thunderstorms are possible into the
  Holiday weekend.

OVERVIEW...

Large scale pattern is in agreement with both determinisic and
ensemble guidance. Upper level low will move towards the Maritimes
as Midwest ridge builds into the Northeast. This ridge will bring
summer-like warmth and humidity to the region as ensembles show both
the 700 and 500 heights nearly 1-2 standard deviations above normal.
Several waves will move through the flow keeping a chance of showers
and thunderstorms in the forecast for Late Thursday into Saturday.
Because of the mesoscale differences in the guidance trended the
forecast towards an overall blend.

DAILIES...

Wednesday into Thursday...Moderate Confidence.

Upper level low will push towards the Maritimes on Wednesday.
However, a quick moving shortwave will try to push through the
region during the day. This approaching frontal system will slow
down or stall as mid-level heights begin to build across the region.
Therefor, believe that an isolated shower across the higher terrain
is possible but most of the day appears to be dry. Good mixing
during the afternoon will help warm temperatures back to above
average with highs in the low to mid 80s. This may be the first
time that Boston Logan will hit 80F.

The cold front weakens and stalls over the region by Thursday as
ridging aloft continues. There is the potential for a spot
thunderstorm especially across the CT valley and points west where
the better instability will occur. So another mainly dry day is
anticipated on Thursday. Temperatures will be similar to that on
Wednesday with mixing up to 800mb. Will be cooler along the
coastlines as a sea breeze looks to develop during the afternoon.

Thursday night into Friday...Moderate Confidence.

Depending on where the front stalls, we could see scattered showers
and thunderstorms Thursday night into Friday. Guidance continues to
hint at the possibility of a decaying MCS moving from the Great
Lakes region towards southern New England. However latest trends is
that this will pass closer to NH than directly over southern New
England. Something to watch in the coming days.

Friday, it still remains unclear how far northward the front will
make it. If it stalls/remains over the region then showers and
thunderstorms may continue, keeping more clouds than sun which will
lower temperatures. Right now believe that the front will get
through a good portion of the area allowing for temps to reach into
the 80s with mid to upper 70s across the east coast.

Memorial Weekend...Moderate Confidence on Saturday. Low Confidence
on Sunday.

High pressure south of the region will begin to strengthen on
Saturday. This will continue to build the ridge to 2-3 standard
deviations above normal. Saturday looks quite balmy with 925 mb
temps warming close to 21-23C. This could result in highs in the mid
80s on Saturday, with a low probability of a 90F across the CT
valley. For now continue with a conservative route for temperatures.
These warm temperatures and lingering moisture may trigger off
afternoon convection on Saturday.

Low confidence on Sunday as EC wants to push a backdoor cold front
through the region where the GFS brings the front through on Monday.
Depending on the frontal timing, temperatures on Sunday could be in
the mid 80s with sun or the upper 60s with clouds and drizzle. Will
have to wait for the guidance to come in better agreement before
having a better idea on how the weekend will end for southern New
England.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Tuesday Night/...

Overnight...Moderate Confidence.

Mainly VFR through 04Z-06Z, except LIFR CIGS/MVFR-IFR VSBYS
moving onshore from Cape Cod to along E coastal Mass. Should see
MVFR- IFR CIGS/MVFR VSBYS move W to about KORH-KIJD with spotty
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS across the CT valley mainly after 06Z. Scattered
showers with MVFR conditions across N CT/W RI into CT valley.
Isolated thunder possible after 08Z mainly near S coast. Light
E-NE winds.

Tuesday...Moderate Confidence.

SHRA and chance TSRA continue with greatest confidence over W
terminals. Widespread MVFR/IFR impacts begin to shift E with the
usherance of winds backing out of the W/NW. Gusts of around 15 kts
possible.

Tuesday Night...Moderate confidence.

Continued clearing trend W to E with W/NW winds. Improving to VFR.
It is perhaps at the start of the period that MVFR/IFR will only
linger along the E coast of MA.

KBOS TAF...Sct showers will move across the terminal tonight and
into tomorrow. Low prob for some thunder. VFR will drop to
MVFR/IFR after 06z.

KBDL TAF...Confident the terminal will see a fair share of -RA
beginning around midnight and continuing through much of Tuesday
before clearing out late. Moderate prob for TSRA. MVFR conditions
after 06z.

Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/...

Wednesday through Thursday...High Confidence. VFR.

Thursday night and Friday... Low to Moderate Confidence. Mainly
VFR...becoming MVFR. Showers and thunderstorms beginning late
Thursday night lasting through Friday.

Saturday...Moderate Confidence. Mainly VFR with some MVFR within
in scattered shower or thunderstorm.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Overnight and Tuesday...Moderate Confidence.

E-NE winds with gusts up to 15 kt mainly overnight, then
diminishing Tuesday. Seas 4 feet or less. Visibility reductions
in areas of fog moving W from Mass Bay and E of Cape Cod overnight,
local mist as well. Scattered showers along the S coast of RI,
then continue to develop across entire S coast, possibly reaching
to E coastal areas by daybreak. Isolated thunderstorms after 08Z
through mid morning Tuesday possible.

Tuesday Night...Moderate Confidence.

Winds back out of the W/NW with departure of the low. Change in
wind direction against a E/SE swell, could see some wave heights
up to 5 feet on the outer waters requiring small craft advisories.
Aside, rain comes to an end and visibilities improve if they had
not done so during the day Tuesday.

Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/...Moderate confidence.

Wednesday...Seas subside into Wednesday afternoon. Light winds.

Wednesday night and Thursday...Light winds from the southwest
will shift to the northeast by Thu as a frontal system stalls
over the waters. Seas mainly below small craft criteria but cannot
rule out a few hours of 5 footers across the southeastern waters.

Thursday night and Friday...Southeast winds on the order of 10-15
kt and seas 1 to 3 feet. Just a slight chance of showers or a
thunderstorm.

Saturday...Southwest winds will prevail with seas less than 3
feet.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Dunten/Sipprell
NEAR TERM...Dunten/EVT
SHORT TERM...Sipprell
LONG TERM...Dunten
AVIATION...Dunten/Sipprell/EVT
MARINE...Dunten/Sipprell/EVT




000
FXUS61 KALY 240225
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
1025 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure tracking close to southern New England tonight into
Tuesday will bring the chance for showers and perhaps an afternoon
thunderstorm to locations from the Capital Region south and
east. Weak high pressure will build east off the mid Atlantic
states and summer like weather will spread across our region from
the southwest through the end of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
As of 1020 PM EDT, bands of mid level clouds continue to drift
west, although have eroded somewhat upon reaching our region.
Skies remain mostly clear across the western Adirondacks, and
Schoharie Valley.

The general trend through the night should be for increasing mid
level clouds from SE to NW overnight, although some erosion of the
clouds may continue at times. Some showers are expected to reach
SE areas after 3 AM, particularly across NW CT/southwest MA and
the southern Taconics into the mid Hudson Valley. Some of these
showers may expand N and W close to the Capital Region and central
Taconics and Berkshires closer to daybreak.

Tricky call on low temperatures overnight, as bands of clouds pass
westward, with some breaks in between. Expect mainly mid 40s to
lower 50s for min temps, although slightly colder temps could
occur across the western Adirondacks. Slightly warmer min temps,
in the mid 50s, will be possible across the mid Hudson Valley and
NW CT where clouds should be more prevalent.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
There is some consensus in guidance that the western edge of the
deeper clouds and better coverage of rain Tuesday should be from
about the Hudson Valley east through New England. So...showers in
the morning then showers and scattered thunderstorms in the
afternoon...lingering and decreasing in coverage Tuesday evening.
The upper low should steadily move northeast and allow for some
gradual clearing Tuesday night...with some patchy fog in places
depending on what areas see the most rain. Highs Tuesday in the
lower to mid 70s...but some upper 70s in western areas and maybe
parts of the southern Adirondacks where the coverage of clouds and
rain is expected to be the least.

On Wednesday...a weak upper impulse is expected to track
east...but mainly scrape northern areas with some scattered clouds
and isolated to scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms.
Boundary layer temperatures should warm a bit and winds are
expected to be west to northwest...which should help temperatures
to rise into the lower to mid 80s...some upper 70s to around 80
northern areas.

By Thursday...the weak boundary that sinks south into our region
Wednesday and Wednesday night should track back north as a warm
front...with again...some scattered clouds...and isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms. Boundary layer temperatures
warm a little more but winds should just be light. Temperatures
are expected to rise to the lower to mid 80s again...with upper
70s in northern areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
This will be an unsettled summer-like period with the risk of
showers and thunderstorms each day.  A warm front will begin to lift
through the region on Friday bringing unseasonable heat and humidity
to the region.  A high pressure ridge building in from the Atlantic
coupled with the lack of a frontal trigger should keep instability
at bay...perhaps just air mass style cells for the weekend.  High
pressure will re-position itself northward toward the Maritimes
coast...possibly setting up a backdoor front which will be just
south and west of our forecast area on Monday.  This could result in
temperatures a few degrees cooler.  But highs Friday through Sunday
will range from the mid 70s to the mid or upper 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Low pressure southeast of Long Island will slowly track northward
toward southeast New England on Tuesday.

Generally VFR conditions are expected through at least 12Z/Tue.
Mid level clouds are expected to gradually increase from southeast
to northwest overnight.

Some spotty light showers may reach KPOU and KPSF toward
sunrise, but at this time, we are not expecting any significant
VSBY/CIG reduction through at least 12Z/Tue.

During Tuesday, scattered showers are expected to develop,
especially during the afternoon hours, with the best chances at
KPSF and KPOU, which will be closer to the surface low and deeper
moisture. Although mainly VFR conditions are forecast, we can not
rule out a few periods of MVFR CIGS/VSBYS within showers, again
most likely at KPOU and KPSF.

Isolated thunderstorms could also occur, but due to limited areal
coverage, have not included any mention in current TAFS.

North to northeast winds at 5-10 kt this evening will become
light/variable overnight, then become north to northeast once
again Tuesday morning and afternoon at 5-10 kt.


Outlook...

Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Low pressure tracking close to southern New England tonight into
Tuesday will bring the chance for showers and perhaps an afternoon
thunderstorm to locations from the Capital Region south and
east. Weak high pressure will build east off the mid Atlantic
states and summer like weather will spread across our region from
the southwest through the end of next week.

Minimum RH values Tuesday afternoon will range from the 35 to 50
percent range in the west to 60 to 70 percent in the east in
areas of the best chances for rain. On Wednesday...minimum RH
values will be 35 to 50 percent in southern areas and western New
England with 55 to 70 percent in the western Mohawk Valley and
southern Adirondacks where scattered showers and thunderstorms are
possible in the afternoon ahead of a weak cold front.

The surface wind will be light out of the north or northeast through
Tuesday, generally 5-9 MPH becoming more west on Wednesday at
10 to 15 mph...with a few gusts near 20 mph possible in the
afternoon.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydrologic issues are anticipated through at least
the next 5 days ending Friday.

Unsettled weather is expected with some showers and scattered
thunderstorms Tuesday. At this time amounts up to a tenth of an
inch in our northwestern zones, to quarter to half an inch in our
southeastern zones is anticipated. We do not expect this rainfall
to produce much if any rises on rivers streams and reservoirs.

There is another chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly from
Albany north on Wednesday with a backdoor cold front. More
scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible Thursday when the
weak cold front returns north. Any heavy rain in scattered
thunderstorms would be very localized.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/NAS
NEAR TERM...KL/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...KL/BGM
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS




000
FXUS61 KOKX 240016
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
816 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
An area of low pressure will slowly track from off the Mid-
Atlantic coast tonight to near Nova Scotia by late Tuesday night.
High pressure briefly builds across the area Wednesday ahead of
cold front approaching from the northwest, the front then briefly
passes through the area Thursday morning before returning
northward as a warm front. High pressure then remains over the
western Atlantic through the weekend with an inland thermal trough
each afternoon. A backdoor cold front drops across the area Sunday
night into Monday morning.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Area of showers/earlier thunderstorms NW of NYC is dissipating.
Next area offshore pivoting northward. Scattered to Likely showers
tonight as a cutoff low slowly tracks up the Mid-Atlantic Coast.
Early this evening, instability is waning, so no mention of
thunder initially. Overnight, as the cold pool with the cutoff
moves in, have sufficient low level instability to warrant slight
chance mention for thunderstorm in the forecast throughout the
area.

A blend of MAV/MET/ECS guidance and NAM 2-meter temperatures were
used for lows Tonight, with values slightly above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Showers will become more scattered to isolated in nature as the
day progresses on Tuesday...as the cutoff low moves to the east.
However, its cold pool will still be near enough to warrant a
slight chance of thunderstorms throughout the area through the
day. For highs on Tuesday, a blend of ECS/MET/MAV guidance, NAM
2-meter temperatures and a mix down from 950-925 hPa per BUFKIT
soundings was used. Highs should be near to slightly below normal.

Any lingering showers over far eastern zones should come to an end
early Tuesday evening as the cutoff low exits to the northeast.
There should also be some partial clearing as the night
progresses. Lows Tuesday night were based on a blend of
MET/MAV/ECS guidance and NAM 2-meter temperatures, with readings
forecast to be up to 5 degrees above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The main emphasis this period will be building heights as an upper
ridge establishes itself across the eastern third of the country.
This will result in considerably warmer and more humid conditions as
the sub-tropical ridge set up across the western Atlantic.

The unknowns continue to be with the amount of short wave energy
emerging from the western trough and rounding the upper ridge across
eastern Canada. A day ago there was some consensus in dropping a
cold front across the area Friday morning with a low-level easterly
flow undercutting the warm ridging aloft. This very much put in
question high temps for Fri with cooler air moving in off the
Atlantic. Now, 24 hours later, both the 12Z operational ECMWF and
GFS take a cold front across the area Wed night into Thu morning and
then quickly return it northward as the upper ridge axis passes to
the east. Thereafter, the upper ridge continues to amplify across
the east ahead of an upper trough lifting north across the plains
and upper midwest. A backdoor cold front then comes into question
Sun into Mon, with the ECMWF about 24 hours earlier. It bring the
front through Sun morning. while the GFS is Mon morning. Once
again,this all hinges on the magnitude of the short wave energy
rounding the top of the eastern ridge as well as with the
interaction of a northern branch trough moving eastern Canada. For
the time, will side with a consensus forecast and keep the boundary
north of the area Sun. This could potentially throw a wrinkle into
the forecast Sun with cooler conditions.

As for rainfall, it mainly appears to be diurnal in nature with
aft/early evening convection.  The best chances will be across the
interior due to instability from higher temps. The possible cold
frontal passage Thu morning looks to be mainly dry with limited
moisture and instability. Depending how fast the warm front lifts
north on Thu, this could serve as a focus for convection. Confidence
is low for any significant precipitation. Before the upper ridge
amplifies further Fri into Sat, the southern edge of the
westerlies always need to be watched for a possible MCS.

Highs during this period will be unseasonably warm with portions of
NYC and the interior in the low to mid 80s and coastal sections
generally in the 70s. This is above normal by about 10 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Low pressure off the Delmarva moves slowly NNE through Tuesday.

an area of rain associated with low pres to the s will pivot into
the area from se to nw tonight. general timing looks to be between
02z and 06z give or take an hour or so. mvfr cigs likely
develop tonight and continue through tue morning...although
timing could be off by a few hours. rain should end at kgon first
with a band remaining over terminals further west through tue
morning. there could be an isold thunderstorm overnight but
chances are too low to include in the tafs. wdly sct showers and
tstms are possible again tue aftn.

sly winds decrease and become light and vrb overnight. a light n
flow tue morning will back to the nw-w as the low departs to the
e. speeds less than 10 kt.

 ...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information...including hourly TAF wind component fcsts can
be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: timing of rain and mvfr conds may be +/- 1-2
hours. low chc of shower/tstm tue aftn.

KLGA TAF Comments: timing of rain and mvfr conds may be +/- 1-2
hours. low chc of shower/tstm tue aftn.

KEWR TAF Comments: timing of rain and mvfr conds may be +/- 1-2
hours. low chc of shower/tstm tue aftn.

KTEB TAF Comments: timing of rain and mvfr conds may be +/- 1-2
hours. low chc of shower/tstm tue aftn.

KHPN TAF Comments: timing of rain and mvfr/ifr conds may be +/-
1-2 hours. low chc of shower/tstm tue aftn.

KISP TAF Comments: timing of rain and mvfr conds may be +/- 1-2
hours. ifr cigs possible late tonight into tue morning. low chc
of shower/tstm tue aftn.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z Wednesday through Saturday...
.Tuesday night-Thursday...VFR.
.Thursday night...low chance of MVFR in showers.
.Friday-Saturday...MVFR possible in tstms.

&&

.MARINE...
A relaxed pressure gradient over the waters around Long Island
will keep winds at 10 kt or less and seas less than 5 ft tonight
through Tuesday night.

Sub-sca conditions will prevail Wednesday through Saturday as well,
with the lack of a strong pressure gradient or significant swell.
The flow will generally be southerly in nature and looks to be
strongest on Wed with gusts up to 20 kt during the aft/eve hours
on the ocean waters ahead of an approaching cold front.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Showers with possibly embedded thunderstorms should produce from
around 1/3 to 2/3 of an inch of rain through Tuesday afternoon,
with locally higher amounts possible in areas experiencing any
stronger convection. Areas that do receive locally heavy rainfall
could experience some localized ponding of water on roadways.

Widespread significant rainfall is not expected from Tuesday Night
through Saturday.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Maloit/DW
NEAR TERM...Maloit/PW
SHORT TERM...Maloit
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...
MARINE...Maloit/DW/PW
HYDROLOGY...Maloit/DW




000
FXUS61 KALY 232341
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
741 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure tracking close to southern New England tonight into
Tuesday will bring the chance for showers and perhaps an afternoon
thunderstorm to locations from the Capital Region south and
east. Weak high pressure will build east off the mid Atlantic
states and summer like weather will spread across our region from
the southwest through the end of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
As of 730 PM EDT, just a few renegade showers/sprinkles across
portions of western Schoharie CO, and the southern Taconics and
mid Hudson Valley. Most of these should dissipate over the next
1-2 hours. Generally clear to partly cloudy skies elsewhere,
expect for mostly cloudy skies from a mid level cloud deck
extending from southern VT into western MA, NW CT and the mid
Hudson River Valley east of the river.

Otherwise, the upper low building off the mid Atlantic states
tonight and will slowly track northeast off Long Island and
across Cape Cod tomorrow and tomorrow night. The northwestern
periphery of the moisture field is just brushing extreme southern
parts of the mid Hudson Valley and NW CT this evening with some
isolated showers. Based on satellite and radar trends...it may
take much of the night for better coverage of clouds and showers
to build north into the mid Hudson Valley...eastern Catskills and
NW CT.

By daybreak...isolated to scattered showers into the southern half
of the forecast area...nudging into likely from around KPOU through
NW CT. Lows in the 50s...some 40s in northern areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
There is some consensus in guidance that the western edge of the
deeper clouds and better coverage of rain Tuesday should be from
about the Hudson Valley east through New England. So...showers in
the morning then showers and scattered thunderstorms in the
afternoon...lingering and decreasing in coverage Tuesday evening.
The upper low should steadily move northeast and allow for some
gradual clearing Tuesday night...with some patchy fog in places
depending on what areas see the most rain. Highs Tuesday in the
lower to mid 70s...but some upper 70s in western areas and maybe
parts of the southern Adirondacks where the coverage of clouds and
rain is expected to be the least.

On Wednesday...a weak upper impulse is expected to track
east...but mainly scrape northern areas with some scattered clouds
and isolated to scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms.
Boundary layer temperatures should warm a bit and winds are
expected to be west to northwest...which should help temperatures
to rise into the lower to mid 80s...some upper 70s to around 80
northern areas.

By Thursday...the weak boundary that sinks south into our region
Wednesday and Wednesday night should track back north as a warm
front...with again...some scattered clouds...and isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms. Boundary layer temperatures
warm a little more but winds should just be light. Temperatures
are expected to rise to the lower to mid 80s again...with upper
70s in northern areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
This will be an unsettled summer-like period with the risk of
showers and thunderstorms each day.  A warm front will begin to lift
through the region on Friday bringing unseasonable heat and humidity
to the region.  A high pressure ridge building in from the Atlantic
coupled with the lack of a frontal trigger should keep instability
at bay...perhaps just air mass style cells for the weekend.  High
pressure will re-position itself northward toward the Maritimes
coast...possibly setting up a backdoor front which will be just
south and west of our forecast area on Monday.  This could result in
temperatures a few degrees cooler.  But highs Friday through Sunday
will range from the mid 70s to the mid or upper 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Low pressure southeast of Long Island will slowly track northward
toward southeast New England on Tuesday.

Generally VFR conditions are expected through at least 12Z/Tue.
Mid level clouds are expected to gradually increase from southeast
to northwest overnight.

Some spotty light showers may reach KPOU and KPSF toward
sunrise, but at this time, we are not expecting any significant
VSBY/CIG reduction through at least 12Z/Tue.

During Tuesday, scattered showers are expected to develop,
especially during the afternoon hours, with the best chances at
KPSF and KPOU, which will be closer to the surface low and deeper
moisture. Although mainly VFR conditions are forecast, we can not
rule out a few periods of MVFR CIGS/VSBYS within showers, again
most likely at KPOU and KPSF.

Isolated thunderstorms could also occur, but due to limited areal
coverage, have not included any mention in current TAFS.

North to northeast winds at 5-10 kt this evening will become
light/variable overnight, then become north to northeast once
again Tuesday morning and afternoon at 5-10 kt.


Outlook...

Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Low pressure tracking close to southern New England tonight into
Tuesday will bring the chance for showers and perhaps an afternoon
thunderstorm to locations from the Capital Region south and
east. Weak high pressure will build east off the mid Atlantic
states and summer like weather will spread across our region from
the southwest through the end of next week.

Minimum RH values Tuesday afternoon will range from the 35 to 50
percent range in the west to 60 to 70 percent in the east in
areas of the best chances for rain. On Wednesday...minimum RH
values will be 35 to 50 percent in southern areas and western New
England with 55 to 70 percent in the western Mohawk Valley and
southern Adirondacks where scattered showers and thunderstorms are
possible in the afternoon ahead of a weak cold front.

The surface wind will be light out of the north or northeast through
Tuesday, generally 5-9 MPH becoming more west on Wednesday at
10 to 15 mph...with a few gusts near 20 mph possible in the
afternoon.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydrologic issues are anticipated through at least
the next 5 days ending Friday.

Unsettled weather is expected with some showers and scattered
thunderstorms Tuesday. At this time amounts up to a tenth of an
inch in our northwestern zones, to quarter to half an inch in our
southeastern zones is anticipated. We do not expect this rainfall
to produce much if any rises on rivers streams and reservoirs.

There is another chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly from
Albany north on Wednesday with a backdoor cold front. More
scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible Thursday when the
weak cold front returns north. Any heavy rain in scattered
thunderstorms would be very localized.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/NAS
NEAR TERM...KL/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...KL/BGM
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS




000
FXUS61 KOKX 232308
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
708 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
An area of low pressure will slowly track from off the Mid-
Atlantic coast tonight to near Nova Scotia by late Tuesday night.
High pressure briefly builds across the area Wednesday ahead of
cold front approaching from the northwest, the front then briefly
passes through the area Thursday morning before returning
northward as a warm front. High pressure then remains over the
western Atlantic through the weekend with an inland thermal trough
each afternoon. A backdoor cold front drops across the area Sunday
night into Monday morning.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Area of showers/earlier thunderstorms NW of NYC is dissipating.
Next area offshore pivoting northward. Scattered to Likely showers
tonight as a cutoff low slowly tracks up the Mid-Atlantic Coast.
Early this evening, instability is waning, so no mention of
thunder initially. Overnight, as the cold pool with the cutoff
moves in, have sufficient low level instability to warrant slight
chance mention for thunderstorm in the forecast throughout the
area.

A blend of MAV/MET/ECS guidance and NAM 2-meter temperatures were
used for lows Tonight, with values slightly above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Showers will become more scattered to isolated in nature as the
day progresses on Tuesday...as the cutoff low moves to the east.
However, its cold pool will still be near enough to warrant a
slight chance of thunderstorms throughout the area through the
day. For highs on Tuesday, a blend of ECS/MET/MAV guidance, NAM
2-meter temperatures and a mix down from 950-925 hPa per BUFKIT
soundings was used. Highs should be near to slightly below normal.

Any lingering showers over far eastern zones should come to an end
early Tuesday evening as the cutoff low exits to the northeast.
There should also be some partial clearing as the night
progresses. Lows Tuesday night were based on a blend of
MET/MAV/ECS guidance and NAM 2-meter temperatures, with readings
forecast to be up to 5 degrees above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The main emphasis this period will be building heights as an upper
ridge establishes itself across the eastern third of the country.
This will result in considerably warmer and more humid conditions as
the sub-tropical ridge set up across the western Atlantic.

The unknowns continue to be with the amount of short wave energy
emerging from the western trough and rounding the upper ridge across
eastern Canada. A day ago there was some consensus in dropping a
cold front across the area Friday morning with a low-level easterly
flow undercutting the warm ridging aloft. This very much put in
question high temps for Fri with cooler air moving in off the
Atlantic. Now, 24 hours later, both the 12Z operational ECMWF and
GFS take a cold front across the area Wed night into Thu morning and
then quickly return it northward as the upper ridge axis passes to
the east. Thereafter, the upper ridge continues to amplify across
the east ahead of an upper trough lifting north across the plains
and upper midwest. A backdoor cold front then comes into question
Sun into Mon, with the ECMWF about 24 hours earlier. It bring the
front through Sun morning. while the GFS is Mon morning. Once
again,this all hinges on the magnitude of the short wave energy
rounding the top of the eastern ridge as well as with the
interaction of a northern branch trough moving eastern Canada. For
the time, will side with a consensus forecast and keep the boundary
north of the area Sun. This could potentially throw a wrinkle into
the forecast Sun with cooler conditions.

As for rainfall, it mainly appears to be diurnal in nature with
aft/early evening convection.  The best chances will be across the
interior due to instability from higher temps. The possible cold
frontal passage Thu morning looks to be mainly dry with limited
moisture and instability. Depending how fast the warm front lifts
north on Thu, this could serve as a focus for convection. Confidence
is low for any significant precipitation. Before the upper ridge
amplifies further Fri into Sat, the southern edge of the
westerlies always need to be watched for a possible MCS.

Highs during this period will be unseasonably warm with portions of
NYC and the interior in the low to mid 80s and coastal sections
generally in the 70s. This is above normal by about 10 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Low pressure off the Delmarva moves slowly NNE through Tuesday.

Southerly flow will continue into the evening before becoming light
and variable after 00Z as the sea breeze circulation weakens. NNW
winds develop on Tuesday, shifting to the WSW Tuesday evening.

Mainly VFR thru this evening. Scattered showers over the Hudson
Valley and northeast NJ will continue to move to the southwest
through this evening. An isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out
in this area, but all activity should remain west of NYC. MVFR or
lower conditions then develop in rain after 04Z, with MVFR ceilings
lingering into Tuesday afternoon.

 ...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information...including hourly TAF wind component fcsts can
be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: Chance of an isolated shower or thunderstorm
this evening.

KLGA TAF Comments: Chance of an isolated shower or thunderstorm
this evening.

KEWR TAF Comments: Low prob of a thunderstorm this evening.

KTEB TAF Comments: Low prob of a thunderstorm this evening.

KHPN TAF Comments: Low prob of a thunderstorm this evening.

KISP TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z Tuesday through Saturday...
.Tuesday afternoon/evening...periods of MVFR in showers and/or
tstms.
.Late Tuesday night-Thursday...VFR.
.Thursday night...low chance of MVFR in showers.
.Friday-Saturday...MVFR possible in tstms.

&&

.MARINE...
A relaxed pressure gradient over the waters around Long Island
will keep winds at 10 kt or less and seas less than 5 ft tonight
through Tuesday night.

Sub-sca conditions will prevail Wednesday through Saturday as well,
with the lack of a strong pressure gradient or significant swell.
The flow will generally be southerly in nature and looks to be
strongest on Wed with gusts up to 20 kt during the aft/eve hours
on the ocean waters ahead of an approaching cold front.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Showers with possibly embedded thunderstorms should produce from
around 1/3 to 2/3 of an inch of rain through Tuesday afternoon,
with locally higher amounts possible in areas experiencing any
stronger convection. Areas that do receive locally heavy rainfall
could experience some localized ponding of water on roadways.

Widespread significant rainfall is not expected from Tuesday Night
through Saturday.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Maloit/DW
NEAR TERM...Maloit/PW
SHORT TERM...Maloit
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...FEB
MARINE...Maloit/DW/PW
HYDROLOGY...Maloit/DW




000
FXUS61 KBOX 232305
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
705 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
An area of low pressure will wobble north along the coast into
this evening and through Tuesday bringing with it showers and the
chance of thunderstorms. Warmer weather follows beginning Wednesday.
A weak front will move south of the region Wednesday night with
dry, warm weather for Thursday. The front will move north toward
southern New England as a warm front on Friday bringing scattered
showers and thunderstorms. The front will continue to drift slowly
north over the Memorial Day weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

700 pm update...

Minor changes to the forecast to account for current trends.
Easterly flow combined with approaching shortwave has already
triggered some light showers/drizzle across the Mass eastern
coastline, especially the Cape and North Shore. Although the
radar shows these showers making it to Worcester
County...temp/dewpoint depression is a bit large. Therefore
anticipate sprinkles in locations west of the I-495 belt. Updated
the precipitation forecast with latest hi-res and 18z guidance.
Otherwise bulk of the forecast remains on track.

Tonight...

Unsettled, wet weather expected though variance within near-term
high-res forecast guidance leaves a lot to be desired with respect
to specifics. Taking a broader view, low pressure wobbles N evolving
into its dying phase undergoing occlusion. Airstreams cyclonically
trowal into the low center yielding a comma-head structure. During
this morphology focus is on the crux of mid-level vortmax energy and
parent weak low-level convergence rounding NW round the low into S
New England. Should see decent low to mid level forcing, with some
venting aloft, along the leading edge of which a band of light to
moderate rain should emerge. Also possible embedded thunderstorms
given marginal instability and weak shear parent to expected lift,
but such activity should be non-severe with the main threats being
lightning and heavy rain.

So taken altogether likely PoPs would be warranted, but it`s unclear
as to when and where specifically. A consensus of high-res and mos-
guidance performed, confidence is for a band of activity to pivot NW
across S New England settling N to S across W New England and along
the high terrain. This keeps a good chunk of E/SE MA in chance PoPs.

A moderate confidence forecast with mild conditions as low range
around the mid 50s. Likely a mixed-bag of conditions consisting of
mist and fog resulting in subsequent reductions in visibility.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Tuesday...

Breaking down. Low chokes itself off entraining drier air as it
stacks and undergoes occlusion within its dying phase. The trowaling
and comma shape to the low persists albeit weaker seemingly over W
portions of New England parent with low level convergent flow along
the E slopes of high terrain and forcing per rotating mid-level
vortex energy. But to the E we could see some improvement with
clouds becoming broken and perhaps some hints of sunshine. Thus can
not rule out partial clearing.

PoPs evolving with highest confidence over the Berkshires while
chance-scattered to the E/SE if forecast models are right in the
evolution of drier air wrapping into the system. A lot of wiggle
room and wobble with this system to which the high-res guidance is
not absolutely succinct but has a decent handle on the trend. Will
avoid high PoPs accordingly with the scattered to broken nature of
the low. Thunder does remain a possibility with continued marginal
instability and weak shear. Think isolated chances and will prevail
accordingly.

Cooler day with clouds in abundance and E/NE flow. Highs up into the
60s. An edge warmer to the W as conditions improve late in the day
with winds shifting out of the W/NW.

Tuesday Night...

The end. Low continues to undergo its dying phase choking upon drier
air as it peels off to the E. Comma head over the W sweeps E across
S New England per a consensus of high-res forecast trends, but by
this point the activity is all but scattered. Should see most of the
wet weather by consensus conclude by midnight behind which W/NW flow
prevails. Anticipated clearing and light winds, would expect lows to
drop into the 40s, and considering the recent rains, can not rule
out some dense fog development if conditions are right.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* Significantly warmer and dry Wednesday and Thursday
* Above average temperatures will continue Friday into Sat
* Hit or miss showers with thunderstorms are possible into the
  Holiday weekend.

OVERVIEW...

Large scale pattern is in agreement with both determinisic and
ensemble guidance. Upper level low will move towards the Maritimes
as Midwest ridge builds into the Northeast. This ridge will bring
summer-like warmth and humidity to the region as ensembles show both
the 700 and 500 heights nearly 1-2 standard deviations above normal.
Several waves will move through the flow keeping a chance of showers
and thunderstorms in the forecast for Late Thursday into Saturday.
Because of the mesoscale differences in the guidance trended the
forecast towards an overall blend.

DAILIES...

Wednesday into Thursday...Moderate Confidence.

Upper level low will push towards the Maritimes on Wednesday.
However, a quick moving shortwave will try to push through the
region during the day. This approaching frontal system will slow
down or stall as mid-level heights begin to build across the region.
Therefor, believe that an isolated shower across the higher terrain
is possible but most of the day appears to be dry. Good mixing
during the afternoon will help warm temperatures back to above
average with highs in the low to mid 80s. This may be the first
time that Boston Logan will hit 80F.

The cold front weakens and stalls over the region by Thursday as
ridging aloft continues. There is the potential for a spot
thunderstorm especially across the CT valley and points west where
the better instability will occur. So another mainly dry day is
anticipated on Thursday. Temperatures will be similar to that on
Wednesday with mixing up to 800mb. Will be cooler along the
coastlines as a sea breeze looks to develop during the afternoon.

Thursday night into Friday...Moderate Confidence.

Depending on where the front stalls, we could see scattered showers
and thunderstorms Thursday night into Friday. Guidance continues to
hint at the possibility of a decaying MCS moving from the Great
Lakes region towards southern New England. However latest trends is
that this will pass closer to NH than directly over southern New
England. Something to watch in the coming days.

Friday, it still remains unclear how far northward the front will
make it. If it stalls/remains over the region then showers and
thunderstorms may continue, keeping more clouds than sun which will
lower temperatures. Right now believe that the front will get
through a good portion of the area allowing for temps to reach into
the 80s with mid to upper 70s across the east coast.

Memorial Weekend...Moderate Confidence on Saturday. Low Confidence
on Sunday.

High pressure south of the region will begin to strengthen on
Saturday. This will continue to build the ridge to 2-3 standard
deviations above normal. Saturday looks quite balmy with 925 mb
temps warming close to 21-23C. This could result in highs in the mid
80s on Saturday, with a low probability of a 90F across the CT
valley. For now continue with a conservative route for temperatures.
These warm temperatures and lingering moisture may trigger off
afternoon convection on Saturday.

Low confidence on Sunday as EC wants to push a backdoor cold front
through the region where the GFS brings the front through on Monday.
Depending on the frontal timing, temperatures on Sunday could be in
the mid 80s with sun or the upper 60s with clouds and drizzle. Will
have to wait for the guidance to come in better agreement before
having a better idea on how the weekend will end for southern New
England.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Tuesday Night/...

Tonight...Moderate Confidence.

Specificity difficult to nail down. Will prevail VCSH with uncertainty
while -RA with confidence. Anticipate scattered SHRA with chance TSRA
with greater confidence of impact over W terminals. With respect to
cigs and vsbys, confident widespread MVFR/IFR impacts with fog and
mist especially over E/SE terminals. NE winds with gusts upward of
15 kts.

Tuesday...Moderate Confidence.

SHRA and chance TSRA continue with greatest confidence over W terminals.
Widespread MVFR/IFR impacts begin to shift E with the usherance of
winds backing out of the W/NW. Gusts of around 15 kts possible.

Tuesday Night...Moderate confidence.

Continued clearing trend W to E with W/NW winds. Improving to VFR.
It is perhaps at the start of the period that MVFR/IFR will only
linger along the E coast of MA.

KBOS TAF...Sct showers will move across the terminal tonight and
into tomorrow. Low prob for some thunder. VFR will drop to
MVFR/IFR after 06z.

KBDL TAF...Confident the terminal will see a fair share of -RA
beginning around midnight and continuing through much of Tuesday
before clearing out late. Moderate prob for TSRA. MVFR conditions
after 06z.

Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/...

Wednesday through Thursday...High Confidence. VFR.

Thursday night and Friday... Low to Moderate Confidence. Mainly
VFR...becoming MVFR. Showers and thunderstorms beginning late
Thursday night lasting through Friday.

Saturday...Moderate Confidence. Mainly VFR with some MVFR within
in scattered shower or thunderstorm.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

315 pm update...

Tonight and Tuesday...Moderate Confidence.

Low pressure wobbles around S New England. E/NE winds with gusts
up to 15 kts. Seas dropping below 5 feet early. Main concern is
with anticipated wet weather that there will be reductions to
visibility out on the waters. Can not rule out visibilities
falling as low a a few miles with mist / fog.

Tuesday Night...Moderate Confidence.

Winds back out of the W/NW with departure of the low. Change in
wind direction against a E/SE swell, could see some wave heights
up to 5 feet on the outer waters requiring small craft advisories.
Aside, rain comes to an end and visibilities improve if they had
not done so during the day Tuesday.

Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/...Moderate confidence.

Wednesday...Seas subside into Wednesday afternoon. Light winds.

Wednesday night and Thursday...Light winds from the southwest
will shift to the northeast by Thu as a frontal system stalls
over the waters. Seas mainly below small craft criteria but cannot
rule out a few hours of 5 footers across the southeastern waters.

Thursday night and Friday...Southeast winds on the order of 10-15
kt and seas 1 to 3 feet. Just a slight chance of showers or a
thunderstorm.

Saturday...Southwest winds will prevail with seas less than 3
feet.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 8 PM EDT this
     evening for ANZ250-254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Dunten/Sipprell
NEAR TERM...Dunten/Sipprell
SHORT TERM...Sipprell
LONG TERM...Dunten
AVIATION...Dunten/Sipprell
MARINE...Dunten/Sipprell




000
FXUS61 KOKX 231955
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
355 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
An area of low pressure will slowly track from off the Mid-
Atlantic coast tonight to near Nova Scotia by late Tuesday night.
High pressure briefly builds across the area Wednesday ahead of
cold front approaching from the northwest, the front then briefly
passes through the area Thursday morning before returning
northward as a warm front. High pressure then remains over the
western Atlantic through the weekend with an inland thermal trough
each afternoon. A backdoor cold front drops across the area Sunday
night into Monday morning.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Scattered to Likely showers tonight as a cutoff low slowly tracks
up the Mid-Atlantic Coast. Early this evening will have enough
surface based instability, mainly to the N/W of NYC, to include
isolated thunderstorms there as well. Overnight, as the cold pool
with the cutoff moves in, have sufficient low level instability to
warrant isolated thunderstorms in the forecast throughout the
area.

A blend of MAV/MET/ECS guidance and NAM 2-meter temperatures were
used for lows Tonight, with values slightly above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Showers will become more scattered to isolated in nature as the
day progresses on Tuesday...as the cutoff low moves to the east.
However, its cold pool will still be near enough to warrant a
slight chance of thunderstorms throughout the area through the
day. For highs on Tuesday, a blend of ECS/MET/MAV guidance, NAM
2-meter temperatures and a mix down from 950-925 hPa per BUFKIT
soundings was used. Highs should be near to slightly below normal.

Any lingering showers over far eastern zones should come to an end
early Tuesday evening as the cutoff low exits to the northeast.
There should also be some partial clearing as the night
progresses. Lows Tuesday night were based on a blend of
MET/MAV/ECS guidance and NAM 2-meter temperatures, with readings
forecast to be up to 5 degrees above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The main emphasis this period will be building heights as an upper
ridge establishes itself across the eastern third of the country.
This will result in considerably warmer and more humid conditions as
the sub-tropical ridge set up across the western Atlantic.

The unknowns continue to be with the amount of short wave energy
emerging from the western trough and rounding the upper ridge across
eastern Canada. A day ago there was some consensus in dropping a
cold front across the area Friday morning with a low-level easterly
flow undercutting the warm ridging aloft. This very much put in
question high temps for Fri with cooler air moving in off the
Atlantic. Now, 24 hours later, both the 12Z operational ECMWF and
GFS take a cold front across the area Wed night into Thu morning and
then quickly return it northward as the upper ridge axis passes to
the east. Thereafter, the upper ridge continues to amplify across
the east ahead of an upper trough lifting north across the plains
and upper midwest. A backdoor cold front then comes into question
Sun into Mon, with the ECMWF about 24 hours earlier. It bring the
front through Sun morning. while the GFS is Mon morning. Once
again,this all hinges on the magnitude of the short wave energy
rounding the top of the eastern ridge as well as with the
interaction of a northern branch trough moving eastern Canada. For
the time, will side with a consensus forecast and keep the boundary
north of the area Sun. This could potentially throw a wrinkle into
the forecast Sun with cooler conditions.

As for rainfall, it mainly appears to be diurnal in nature with
aft/early evening convection.  The best chances will be across the
interior due to instability from higher temps. The possible cold
frontal passage Thu morning looks to be mainly dry with limited
moisture and instability. Depending how fast the warm front lifts
north on Thu, this could serve as a focus for convection. Confidence
is low for any significant precipitation. Before the upper ridge
amplifies further Fri into Sat, the southern edge of the
westerlies always need to be watched for a possible MCS.

Highs during this period will be unseasonably warm with portions of
NYC and the interior in the low to mid 80s and coastal sections
generally in the 70s. This is above normal by about 10 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Low pressure off the Delmarva moves slowly NNE through Tuesday.

Southerly flow will continue into the evening before becoming light
and variable after 00Z as the sea breeze circulation weakens. NNW
winds develop on Tuesday, shifting to the WSW Tuesday evening.

Mainly VFR thru this evening. Scattered showers over the Hudson
Valley and northeast NJ will continue to move to the southwest
through this evening. An isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out
in this area, but all activity should remain west of NYC. MVFR or
lower conditions then develop in rain after 04Z, with MVFR ceilings
lingering into Tuesday afternoon.

 ...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information...including hourly TAF wind component fcsts can
be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: Chance of an isolated shower or thunderstorm
this evening.

KLGA TAF Comments: Chance of an isolated shower or thunderstorm
this evening.

KEWR TAF Comments: Low prob of a thunderstorm this evening.

KTEB TAF Comments: Low prob of a thunderstorm this evening.

KHPN TAF Comments: Low prob of a thunderstorm this evening.

KISP TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z Tuesday through Saturday...
.Tuesday afternoon/evening...periods of MVFR in showers and/or
tstms.
.Late Tuesday night-Thursday...VFR.
.Thursday night...low chance of MVFR in showers.
.Friday-Saturday...MVFR possible in tstms.

&&

.MARINE...
A relaxed pressure gradient over the waters around Long Island
will keep winds at 10 kt or less and seas less than 5 ft tonight
through Tuesday night.

Sub-sca conditions will prevail Wednesday through Saturday as well,
with the lack of a strong pressure gradient or significant swell.
The flow will generally be southerly in nature and looks to be
strongest on Wed with gusts up to 20 kt during the aft/eve hours
on the ocean waters ahead of an approaching cold front.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Showers with possibly embedded thunderstorms should produce from
around 1/3 to 2/3 of an inch of rain through Tuesday afternoon,
with locally higher amounts possible in areas experiencing any
stronger convection. Areas that do receive locally heavy rainfall
could experience some localized ponding of water on roadways.

Widespread significant rainfall is not expected from Tuesday Night
through Saturday.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Maloit/DW
NEAR TERM...Maloit
SHORT TERM...Maloit
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...FEB
MARINE...Maloit/DW
HYDROLOGY...Maloit/DW




000
FXUS61 KOKX 231748
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
148 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure off the Mid Atlantic coast moves slowly north
through tonight, then drifts northeast Tuesday and Tuesday night,
remaining offshore and passing south and east of the region. High
pressure will then briefly follow for Wednesday through Thursday
morning, then a cold front stalls in the vicinity Thursday
afternoon and night. The front returns north as a warm front on
Friday...followed by high pressure building in from the south
through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Currently only 100-300 J/kg of CAPE to the N/W of NYC. For now
this is mainly to the N/W of a convergence line/weak surface
trough stretching from SE CT into NYC. The trough should lift to
the N/W later this afternoon, so given some additional daytime
heating and with some marginal low level instability (showalter
indices 0 to 4), there is the possibility for some isolated to
scattered showers mainly to the N of Long Island Sound/W of NYC.
Also cannot rule out isolated thunder across most of that area as
well.

For highs today...still running a tad warmer than forecast hourly
temperatures...so bumped up highs a degree or so at most
locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The surface low continues to drift north and northeast tonight
through Tuesday night, remaining offshore, as the mid and upper
cutoff low also drifts along the coast. With the low a little
closer to the coast tonight and additional energy rotating
through, there will be a better, likely, chance of showers. There
may be isolated thunder early, however, cape and instability will
be decreasing. Not all areas will see precipitation, and will be
dependent on where the low and upper low drift.

Once again, Tuesday afternoon thunderstorms will be possible as a
surface trough develops and the low drifts east of the region.
Precipitation ends during Tuesday evening as the upper low begins
to fill and open, moving farther to the east, and height will be
rising at all levels after 03z Wednesday. Could be a rather sharp
end to the precipitation.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Ridging aloft on Wednesday will help slow down a cold front sinking
south across the Northeast. Insufficient moisture and lift should
therefore keep the CWA dry. Mixing to 850 mb, where temps are
forecast to rise to around 13C, along with a mostly sunny sky and SW
winds will bring high temps about 10-15 degrees above normal across
the entire area.

The cold front weakens and stalls over us on Thursday as ridging
aloft continues. Chance of afternoon tstms from around the city and
points west where better instability will reside. Subsidence will
limit mixing more than on Wednesday, so expecting high temps to be a
couple of degrees cooler on average versus Wednesday.

Friday and Saturday look to be similar days with ridging aloft and a
weak SE-S wind flow. This will probably limit chances of
showers/thunderstorms to inland sections both days, and chances
don`t appear to be very high due to limited moisture and/or capping
from ridging aloft. Models however hint at the possibility of an Mesoscale Convective System
moving through late Thursday night into early Friday morning, so a
more widespread rainfall is still a possibility. High temps both
days still averaging above normals in spite of a limited mixing
profile.

It appears that Sunday could feature deeper mixing,and along with
rising temps aloft, high temps could end up a few degrees warmer
than currently forecast. Didn`t want to stray too far from WPC
guidance this far out in time, which is warmer than Superblend.
Highs well into the 80s for some inland spots. Once again, limited
chances of showers/storms focused inland.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Low pressure off the Delmarva moves slowly NNE through Tuesday.

The sea breeze is advancing north and is currently located just
south of LGA. Where it hasn`t already, flow should shift to the
south over the next hour or two before becoming light and variable
tonight as the sea breeze circulation weakens. NNW winds develop
during the day on Tuesday before shifting to the WSW Tuesday
evening.

Mainly VFR thru this evening. Scattered showers have developed
across the Hudson Valley and should remain north and west of NYC
through the afternoon. An isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled
out, particularly from the city into the Hudson Valley and
northeastern NJ. MVFR or lower in rain after 04Z, with MVFR
ceilings lingering into Tuesday afternoon.

 ...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information...including hourly TAF wind component fcsts can
be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: Chance of an isolated shower or thunderstorm
this afternoon.

KLGA TAF Comments: Chance of an isolated shower or thunderstorm
this afternoon.

KEWR TAF Comments: Low prob of a thunderstorm this afternoon.

KTEB TAF Comments: Low prob of a thunderstorm this afternoon.

KHPN TAF Comments: A tempo may be needed for thunderstorms this
afternoon.

KISP TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z Tuesday through Saturday...
.Tuesday...periods of MVFR in -shra and/or tstms.
.Wednesday-Thursday...VFR.
.Thursday night...low chance of MVFR -shra.
.Friday-Saturday...MVFR possible in tstms.

&&

.MARINE...
Made minor changes this update to reflect the latest trends in
observations and guidance. The forecast appears on track.

A rather weak pressure gradient force will be across the waters
through Tuesday night. Winds and seas will remain below small
craft levels through Tuesday night as a result.

Sub-sca conditions will prevail Wednesday through Friday as well, with
the lack of a strong pressure gradient or significant swell.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A long period of generally light precipitation is expected today
through Tuesday evening with 1/3 to 2/3 of an inch expected.
Locally higher amounts are possible if any thunderstorms develop
this afternoon and Tuesday afternoon.

Widespread significant rainfall is not expected for the rest of the
week.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/Maloit/MET
NEAR TERM...Maloit
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...FEB
MARINE...JC/Maloit/MET
HYDROLOGY...JC/Maloit/MET




000
FXUS61 KALY 231725
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
125 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will briefly build in from the Great Lakes
Region and Midwest through early today. Low pressure tracking close
to southern New England late today into Tuesday will bring the
chance for showers and perhaps an afternoon thunderstorm to
locations from the Capital Region south and east.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Some diurnal cloudiness in areas of terrain...where a few showers
could develop...especially around the eastern Catskills. Lots of
sunshine helping temperatures to rise and adjusted some
temperatures and sky cover through this afternoon.

High temperatures look to reach around 80 to just above 80 in
most valley areas, mid to upper 70s across the higher terrain.

A light to calm wind will become northerly 5-10 mph.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
The aforementioned low pressure will be to our east tonight and
scattered showers look to reach the Capital region, perhaps more
numerous well south and east Albany. Model consensus is that
the majority of rain with this system will once again stay to the
east of our region.

Low tonight will range from the upper 40s northwest to upper
50s southeast of the Capital region. With a good deal of clouds on
Tuesday, high temperatures look to be held down a little compared to
today, close to 70, with upper 60s south and east of Albany.

This next system is still forecast to pull out Tuesday night with
any lingering showers or drizzle ending, perhaps leading to some
patchy fog as the sky partially clears. Low temperatures close
to 50 degrees.

Wednesday, it now appears that a weak backdoor cold front could
slip south through our region, triggering perhaps a few afternoon
showers or a thunderstorm. With some sunshine anticipated through
midday as well as H850 temperatures reaching around +12C,
temperatures overall look a bit warmer than Tuesday, with highs 80
or better Albany southward, 70s most other areas, with some upper
60s across our southern Adirondacks.

Wednesday night looks dry with a partly cloudy sky and lows
generally in the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The trend in the extended forecast is to more heat and humidity and
above normal temps as we get into the last week of May.

Thu-Fri...The cold front that moves through mid-week will begin to
slowly lift north/northeast across the forecast area as a warm
front.  The 00Z guidance and ensembles are a little faster this
cycle with a slight chance to chance of showers and thunderstorms by
the afternoon reaching the NY and New England border.  H850 temps
increase to +14C to +15C for highs to get into the 80-85F range in
the valley locations...and mid 70s to around 80F over the hills and
mountains. The night period looks to more active with a good chance
of showers and thunderstorms as the warm front continues to move
across the region. The warm front will likely interact with a short-
wave in the W/SW mid level flow which may enhance the rainfall some.
Showalter indices fall to 0 to -2C for the potential increasing for
elevated convection. Lows will be in the mid 50s to lower 60s.

By Friday...it still remains unclear how far north the front goes by
daybreak. If it stalls over the Mohawk valley/Capital Region
scattered showers and thunderstorms may continue...and more clouds
than sun will be anticipated which will keep temps down a bit.  Have
gone slightly above the superblend of the guidance with upper 70s to
around 80F in the valley areas...and upper 60s to mid 70s over the
elevated terrain.

Friday night in Saturday...There are some trends with the medium
range deterministic guidance and the ensembles that the front will
migrate north of the region...and the isold-sct showers and
thunderstorms will end FRI night.  No clear forcing mechanism
appears to be around Saturday afternoon except the front near the St
Lawrence River Valley.  We have kept a low to slight chc of showers
and thunderstorms in during the day.  It will become more humid with
dewpoints in the upper 50s to mid 60s.  H850 temps remain above
normal in the +14C to +16C range according to the ECMWF.  After lows
in the upper 50s to lower 60s...expect highs in the mid 70s to lower
80s over the forecast area.

Saturday night into Sunday...The middle portion of the Memorial Day
weekend looks to be warm and humid with some diurnally focused isold-
sct showers and thunderstorms as an extension of the subtropical
high builds in from the Mid-Atlantic Region.  Lows will be similar
to the previous night, but highs will be a shade warmer with lower
to mid 80s in the valleys...and mid 70s to lower 80s over the hill
and mountains. Humidity levels will remain high.

Overall...temps look above normal in the long term with pcpn
trending towards normal depending where any convection occurs and
quickly the warm front moves through THU-FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Mainly VFR conditions through the afternoon hours then gradual
deteriorating conditions tonight into Tuesday.

Convective temperature has been achieved as CU has developed,
mainly across the terrain at the present time. The best chance for
broken sky coverage will be at KPSF-KPOU along with increase
probability for a shower too develop. While a thunderstorm can not
be ruled out, probabilities appear too low for inclusion in the
TAFs. Depending on where the rain may fall, there could be some
fog again tonight.

As the coastal low and upper low approach, deformation axis will
bring a period of rain/showers mainly to the south of KGFL
overnight. So a reduction to MVFR/IFR for KPSF-KPOU with the
chance at KALB-KGFL which will be closely monitored.

Winds this afternoon from the north around 10kts with some
slightly higher gusts from time to time. Then those winds subside
to less than 5kts tonight through Tuesday.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night:  Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH values appear to remain moderate or high through much of the week
with full recoveries expected each night. A weak high pressure will
build early today. Low pressure will track to our southeast late
today into Tuesday, spreading more clouds and scattered showers and
perhaps a thunderstorm, mainly from the Capital region south and
east, by late in the day into Tuesday. Then, a Bermuda high will
form eventually taking control of our weather by late in the week.
Before that happens, one more backdoor cold front on Wednesday night
touch off a few more showers or even a thunderstorm mainly from
Albany northward.

The surface wind will be light out of the north or northeast today
through Tuesday, generally 5-9 MPH becoming more western on
Wednesday at similar speeds.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydrologic issues are anticipated through at least
the next 5 days ending Friday.

Unsettled weather is expected with some isolated to scattered
showers late today with better coverage of showers Tuesday. At this
time amounts about a tenth of an inch in our northwestern zones, to
quarter to half an inch in our southeastern zones is anticipated. We
do not expect this rainfall to produce much if any rises on rivers
streams and reservoirs.

There is another chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly from
Albany north on Wednesday with a backdoor cold front. After that,
our area might get into the "ring of fire" with scattered convection
possible the rest of the week. With higher humidity, thunderstorms
later in the week could produce locally heavier rainfall.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/NAS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...Wasula
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/NAS

www.weather.gov/albany




000
FXUS61 KALY 231710
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
110 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will briefly build in from the Great Lakes
Region and Midwest through early today. Low pressure tracking close
to southern New England late today into Tuesday will bring the
chance for showers and perhaps an afternoon thunderstorm to
locations from the Capital Region south and east.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Some diurnal cloudiness in areas of terrain...where a few showers
could develop...especially around the eastern Catskills. Lots of
sunshine helping temperatures to rise and adjusted some
temperatures and sky cover through this afternoon.

High temperatures look to reach around 80 to just above 80 in
most valley areas, mid to upper 70s across the higher terrain.

A light to calm wind will become northerly 5-10 mph.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
The aforementioned low pressure will be to our east tonight and
scattered showers look to reach the Capital region, perhaps more
numerous well south and east Albany. Model consensus is that
the majority of rain with this system will once again stay to the
east of our region.

Low tonight will range from the upper 40s northwest to upper
50s southeast of the Capital region. With a good deal of clouds on
Tuesday, high temperatures look to be held down a little compared to
today, close to 70, with upper 60s south and east of Albany.

This next system is still forecast to pull out Tuesday night with
any lingering showers or drizzle ending, perhaps leading to some
patchy fog as the sky partially clears. Low temperatures close
to 50 degrees.

Wednesday, it now appears that a weak backdoor cold front could
slip south through our region, triggering perhaps a few afternoon
showers or a thunderstorm. With some sunshine anticipated through
midday as well as H850 temperatures reaching around +12C,
temperatures overall look a bit warmer than Tuesday, with highs 80
or better Albany southward, 70s most other areas, with some upper
60s across our southern Adirondacks.

Wednesday night looks dry with a partly cloudy sky and lows
generally in the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The trend in the extended forecast is to more heat and humidity and
above normal temps as we get into the last week of May.

Thu-Fri...The cold front that moves through mid-week will begin to
slowly lift north/northeast across the forecast area as a warm
front.  The 00Z guidance and ensembles are a little faster this
cycle with a slight chance to chance of showers and thunderstorms by
the afternoon reaching the NY and New England border.  H850 temps
increase to +14C to +15C for highs to get into the 80-85F range in
the valley locations...and mid 70s to around 80F over the hills and
mountains. The night period looks to more active with a good chance
of showers and thunderstorms as the warm front continues to move
across the region. The warm front will likely interact with a short-
wave in the W/SW mid level flow which may enhance the rainfall some.
Showalter indices fall to 0 to -2C for the potential increasing for
elevated convection. Lows will be in the mid 50s to lower 60s.

By Friday...it still remains unclear how far north the front goes by
daybreak. If it stalls over the Mohawk valley/Capital Region
scattered showers and thunderstorms may continue...and more clouds
than sun will be anticipated which will keep temps down a bit.  Have
gone slightly above the superblend of the guidance with upper 70s to
around 80F in the valley areas...and upper 60s to mid 70s over the
elevated terrain.

Friday night in Saturday...There are some trends with the medium
range deterministic guidance and the ensembles that the front will
migrate north of the region...and the isold-sct showers and
thunderstorms will end FRI night.  No clear forcing mechanism
appears to be around Saturday afternoon except the front near the St
Lawrence River Valley.  We have kept a low to slight chc of showers
and thunderstorms in during the day.  It will become more humid with
dewpoints in the upper 50s to mid 60s.  H850 temps remain above
normal in the +14C to +16C range according to the ECMWF.  After lows
in the upper 50s to lower 60s...expect highs in the mid 70s to lower
80s over the forecast area.

Saturday night into Sunday...The middle portion of the Memorial Day
weekend looks to be warm and humid with some diurnally focused isold-
sct showers and thunderstorms as an extension of the subtropical
high builds in from the Mid-Atlantic Region.  Lows will be similar
to the previous night, but highs will be a shade warmer with lower
to mid 80s in the valleys...and mid 70s to lower 80s over the hill
and mountains. Humidity levels will remain high.

Overall...temps look above normal in the long term with pcpn
trending towards normal depending where any convection occurs and
quickly the warm front moves through THU-FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
With the exception of KGFL mainly VFR flying conditions through today.
There might be some residual IFR fog at KGFL through 13Z.

Otherwise VFR today with increasing afternoon clouds. As we head toward
evening showers and thunderstorms are possible at all the TAFS except
for KGFL where only a small chance for showers exist. We have introduce
PROB30 groups for possible thunderstorms reducing conditions to high
end MVFR at KALB/KPSF and KPOU.

There could be some fog again tonight depending on how much rain falls
through then.

The wind will become northerly later today around 5KTS.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night:  Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH values appear to remain moderate or high through much of the week
with full recoveries expected each night. A weak high pressure will
build early today. Low pressure will track to our southeast late
today into Tuesday, spreading more clouds and scattered showers and
perhaps a thunderstorm, mainly from the Capital region south and
east, by late in the day into Tuesday. Then, a Bermuda high will
form eventually taking control of our weather by late in the week.
Before that happens, one more backdoor cold front on Wednesday night
touch off a few more showers or even a thunderstorm mainly from
Albany northward.

The surface wind will be light out of the north or northeast today
through Tuesday, generally 5-9 MPH becoming more western on
Wednesday at similar speeds.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydrologic issues are anticipated through at least
the next 5 days ending Friday.

Unsettled weather is expected with some isolated to scattered
showers late today with better coverage of showers Tuesday. At this
time amounts about a tenth of an inch in our northwestern zones, to
quarter to half an inch in our southeastern zones is anticipated. We
do not expect this rainfall to produce much if any rises on rivers
streams and reservoirs.

There is another chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly from
Albany north on Wednesday with a backdoor cold front. After that,
our area might get into the "ring of fire" with scattered convection
possible the rest of the week. With higher humidity, thunderstorms
later in the week could produce locally heavier rainfall.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/NAS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...Wasula
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/NAS




000
FXUS61 KOKX 231625
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1225 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure off the Mid Atlantic coast moves slowly north
through tonight, then drifts northeast Tuesday and Tuesday night,
remaining offshore and passing south and east of the region. High
pressure will then briefly follow for Wednesday through Thursday
morning, then a cold front stalls in the vicinity Thursday
afternoon and night. The front returns north as a warm front on
Friday...followed by high pressure building in from the south
through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Currently only 100-300 J/kg of CAPE to the N/W of NYC. For now
this is mainly to the N/W of a convergence line/weak surface
trough stretching from SE CT into NYC. The trough should lift to
the N/W later this afternoon, so given some additional daytime
heating and with some marginal low level instability (showalter
indices 0 to 4), there is the possibility for some isolated to
scattered showers mainly to the N of Long Island Sound/W of NYC.
Also cannot rule out isolated thunder across most of that area as
well.

For highs today...still running a tad warmer than forecast hourly
temperatures...so bumped up highs a degree or so at most
locations.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The surface low continues to drift north and northeast tonight
through Tuesday night, remaining offshore, as the mid and upper
cutoff low also drifts along the coast. With the low a little
closer to the coast tonight and additional energy rotating
through, there will be a better, likely, chance of showers. There
may be isolated thunder early, however, cape and instability will
be decreasing. Not all areas will see precipitation, and will be
dependent on where the low and upper low drift.

Once again, Tuesday afternoon thunderstorms will be possible as a
surface trough develops and the low drifts east of the region.
Precipitation ends during Tuesday evening as the upper low begins
to fill and open, moving farther to the east, and height will be
rising at all levels after 03z Wednesday. Could be a rather sharp
end to the precipitation.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Ridging aloft on Wednesday will help slow down a cold front sinking
south across the Northeast. Insufficient moisture and lift should
therefore keep the CWA dry. Mixing to 850 mb, where temps are
forecast to rise to around 13C, along with a mostly sunny sky and SW
winds will bring high temps about 10-15 degrees above normal across
the entire area.

The cold front weakens and stalls over us on Thursday as ridging
aloft continues. Chance of afternoon tstms from around the city and
points west where better instability will reside. Subsidence will
limit mixing more than on Wednesday, so expecting high temps to be a
couple of degrees cooler on average versus Wednesday.

Friday and Saturday look to be similar days with ridging aloft and a
weak SE-S wind flow. This will probably limit chances of
showers/thunderstorms to inland sections both days, and chances
don`t appear to be very high due to limited moisture and/or capping
from ridging aloft. Models however hint at the possibility of an Mesoscale Convective System
moving through late Thursday night into early Friday morning, so a
more widespread rainfall is still a possibility. High temps both
days still averaging above normals in spite of a limited mixing
profile.

It appears that Sunday could feature deeper mixing,and along with
rising temps aloft, high temps could end up a few degrees warmer
than currently forecast. Didn`t want to stray too far from WPC
guidance this far out in time, which is warmer than Superblend.
Highs well into the 80s for some inland spots. Once again, limited
chances of showers/storms focused inland.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Low pressure off the Delmarva moves slowly NNE through Tuesday.

Sea breeze flow is expected to take over by early afternoon. Winds
then become light and variable tonight as the sea breeze
circulation weakens. Northwest winds develop during the day on
Tuesday.

Mainly VFR thru this evening, although some scattered showers
are possible after 17-18Z, primarily north and west of NYC.
Isolated tstms cannot be ruled out...particularly from the city
into the Hudson Valley and northeastern NJ. For tonight...MVFR or
lower in rain after 4Z.

 ...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information...including hourly TAF wind component fcsts can
be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: Chance of an isolated shower or thunderstorm
this afternoon.

KLGA TAF Comments: Chance of an isolated shower or thunderstorm
this afternoon.

KEWR TAF Comments: Low prob of a thunderstorm this afternoon.

The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is GREEN...which implies
slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud.

KTEB TAF Comments: Low prob of a thunderstorm this afternoon.

KHPN TAF Comments: A tempo may be needed for tstms this
afternoon...mainly aft 18z.

KISP TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z Tuesday through Friday...
.Tuesday...periods of mvfr in -shra and/or tstms.
.Wednesday-Thursday...vfr.
.Thursday night...low chance of mvfr -shra.
.Friday...mvfr possible in tstms.

&&

.MARINE...
Made minor changes this update to reflect the latest trends in
observations and guidance. The forecast appears on track.

A rather weak pressure gradient force will be across the waters
through Tuesday night. Winds and seas will remain below small
craft levels through Tuesday night as a result.

Sub-sca conditions will prevail Wednesday through Friday as well, with
the lack of a strong pressure gradient or significant swell.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A long period of generally light precipitation is expected today
through Tuesday evening with 1/3 to 2/3 of an inch expected.
Locally higher amounts are possible if any thunderstorms develop
this afternoon and Tuesday afternoon.

Widespread significant rainfall is not expected for the rest of the
week.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Maloit/MET/JC
NEAR TERM...Maloit
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...FEB/JMC
MARINE...Maloit/MET/JC
HYDROLOGY...Maloit/MET/JC




000
FXUS61 KOKX 231447
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1047 AM EDT MON MAY 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure off the Mid Atlantic coast moves slowly north
through tonight, then drifts northeast Tuesday and Tuesday night,
remaining offshore and passing south and east of the region. High
pressure will then briefly follow for Wednesday through Thursday
morning, then a cold front stalls in the vicinity Thursday
afternoon and night. The front returns north as a warm front on
Friday...followed by high pressure building in from the south
through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Latest radar and high resolution model trends support a dry
forecast through at least the remainder of this morning, so have
adjusted the current forecast accordingly.

The main question for this afternoon is will generally a few
hundred J/kg of CAPE mainly to the W/N of NYC Metro be sufficient
to fire convection along an area of surface convergence stretching
from SE CT back towards NE NJ. This line should push slowly to
the N/W during the afternoon. For now, other than slowing the
onset of convection...did not make any changes to forecast for
isolated thunderstorms. However, if current trends hold, can
foresee removing mention of thunder especially over Long Island,
and possibly NYC proper for the next update.

Temperatures initially this morning have been running higher than
forecast, but a look at 12z KALY and KOKX soundings suggest that
previously forecast high temperatures appear on track, so no
changes there.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The surface low continues to drift north and northeast tonight
through Tuesday night, remaining offshore, as the mid and upper
cutoff low also drifts along the coast. With the low a little
closer to the coast tonight and additional energy rotating
through, there will be a better, likely, chance of showers. There
may be isolated thunder early, however, cape and instability will
be decreasing. Not all areas will see precipitation, and will be
dependent on where the low and upper low drift.

Once again, Tuesday afternoon thunderstorms will be possible as a
surface trough develops and the low drifts east of the region.
Precipitation ends during Tuesday evening as the upper low begins
to fill and open, moving farther to the east, and height will be
rising at all levels after 03z Wednesday. Could be a rather sharp
end to the precipitation.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Ridging aloft on Wednesday will help slow down a cold front sinking
south across the Northeast. Insufficient moisture and lift should
therefore keep the CWA dry. Mixing to 850 mb, where temps are
forecast to rise to around 13C, along with a mostly sunny sky and SW
winds will bring high temps about 10-15 degrees above normal across
the entire area.

The cold front weakens and stalls over us on Thursday as ridging
aloft continues. Chance of afternoon tstms from around the city and
points west where better instability will reside. Subsidence will
limit mixing more than on Wednesday, so expecting high temps to be a
couple of degrees cooler on average versus Wednesday.

Friday and Saturday look to be similar days with ridging aloft and a
weak SE-S wind flow. This will probably limit chances of
showers/thunderstorms to inland sections both days, and chances
don`t appear to be very high due to limited moisture and/or capping
from ridging aloft. Models however hint at the possibility of an Mesoscale Convective System
moving through late Thursday night into early Friday morning, so a
more widespread rainfall is still a possibility. High temps both
days still averaging above normals in spite of a limited mixing
profile.

It appears that Sunday could feature deeper mixing,and along with
rising temps aloft, high temps could end up a few degrees warmer
than currently forecast. Didn`t want to stray too far from WPC
guidance this far out in time, which is warmer than Superblend.
Highs well into the 80s for some inland spots. Once again, limited
chances of showers/storms focused inland.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Low pres remains nearly stationary off the Delmarva into Tue.

A lot of variability in the flow thru the taf period. Nearly calm
this morning then ne flow attempts to develop. Sea breeze flow then
expected to take over by early afternoon. Wind direction will become
variable tonight as the sea breeze circulation weakens.

Mainly vfr thru this eve...although some scattered showers possible aft
16-18z. Isolated tstms cannot be ruled out...particularly from the
city into the Hudson Valley and northeastern NJ. For tonight...mvfr or lower
in rain aft 5z.


 ...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information...including hourly TAF wind component fcsts can
be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected this morning.
Low prob of a thunderstorm this afternoon.


KLGA TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected this morning.
Low prob of a thunderstorm this afternoon.


KEWR TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected this morning.
Low prob of a thunderstorm this afternoon.


The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is GREEN...which implies
slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud.


KTEB TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected this morning.
Low prob of a thunderstorm this afternoon.


KHPN TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected this morning. A
tempo may be needed for tstms this afternoon...mainly aft 18z.


KISP TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.


.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z Tuesday through Friday...
.Tuesday...periods of mvfr in -shra and/or tstms.
.Wednesday-Thursday...vfr.
.Thursday night...low chance of mvfr -shra.
.Friday...mvfr possible in tstms.

&&

.MARINE...
Seas have fallen below 5 ft on the coastal ocean waters, so will
be dropping the SCA for Hazardous Seas there with this issuance.

Otherwise, a rather weak pressure gradient force will be across
the waters today through Tuesday night as a weak low off the North
Carolina coast moves north today and tonight, and northeast
Tuesday and Tuesday night. Winds will remain below small craft
levels today through Tuesday night. And seas on the ocean waters
will remain below small craft once the seas subside this morning.

Sub-sca conditions will prevail for the rest of the forecast period
with the lack of a strong pressure gradient or significant swell.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A long period of generally light precipitation is expected today
through Tuesday evening with 1/3 to 2/3 of an inch expected.
Locally higher amounts are possible if any thunderstorms develop
this afternoon and Tuesday afternoon.

Widespread significant rainfall is not expected for the rest of the
week.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Maloit/MET/JC
NEAR TERM...Maloit/MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...Maloit/MET/JC
HYDROLOGY...Maloit/MET/JC




000
FXUS61 KALY 231303
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
903 AM EDT MON MAY 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will briefly build in from the Great Lakes
Region and Midwest through early today. Low pressure tracking close
to southern New England late today into Tuesday will bring the
chance for showers and perhaps an afternoon thunderstorm to
locations from the Capital Region south and east.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Update 900 AM EDT...Mostly sunny skies across the region with fog
lifting quickly and burning off with just few-sct ci/cs across the
sky. 12Z sounding reveals our convective temperature into the
lower 70s which, under the sunshine, should achieve close to noon.
Latest hi-res reflectivity model forecasts suggest isolated to
scattered convection develops a bit further north across the
Adirondacks then mainly along and south of I90. So adjusted PoPs a
little further northward. Otherwise, minor tweaks to the sky grids
and updated hourly temps/dewpoints/winds.

Prev disc...Weak high pressure should provide a dry morning
through midday before more clouds begin moving in during the
afternoon. Another cutoff low in central VA was lifting northward.
This upper level system is forecast to form a weak surface low
which will track northward toward Cape Cod through Tuesday.

Once any fog burns off, the day will start out mainly sunny. Then,
another surge of clouds will overspread our region from southeast
to northwest during the afternoon hours along with increasing
chances for showers. It will be warm enough for enough instability
(up to 500 J/KG) for perhaps a rumble of thunder or two, so
mentioned slight to chances for thunderstorms. Most of this
activity will stay south and east of the Capital region through
today.

High temperatures look to reach 75-80 in most valley areas, 70-75
across the higher terrain.

A light to calm wind will become northerly 5-10 mph.

For this update, just minor tweaks of the grids.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
The aforementioned low pressure will be to our east tonight and
scattered showers look to reach the Capital region, perhaps more
numerous well south and east Albany. Model consensus is that
the majority of rain with this system will once again stay to the
east of our region.

Low tonight will range from the upper 40s northwest to upper
50s southeast of the Capital region. With a good deal of clouds on
Tuesday, high temperatures look to be held down a little compared to
today, close to 70, with upper 60s south and east of Albany.

This next system is still forecast to pull out Tuesday night with
any lingering showers or drizzle ending, perhaps leading to some
patchy fog as the sky partially clears. Low temperatures close
to 50 degrees.

Wednesday, it now appears that a weak backdoor cold front could
slip south through our region, triggering perhaps a few afternoon
showers or a thunderstorm. With some sunshine anticipated through
midday as well as H850 temperatures reaching around +12C,
temperatures overall look a bit warmer than Tuesday, with highs 80
or better Albany southward, 70s most other areas, with some upper
60s across our southern Adirondacks.

Wednesday night looks dry with a partly cloudy sky and lows
generally in the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The trend in the extended forecast is to more heat and humidity and
above normal temps as we get into the last week of May.

Thu-Fri...The cold front that moves through mid-week will begin to
slowly lift north/northeast across the forecast area as a warm
front.  The 00Z guidance and ensembles are a little faster this
cycle with a slight chance to chance of showers and thunderstorms by
the afternoon reaching the NY and New England border.  H850 temps
increase to +14C to +15C for highs to get into the 80-85F range in
the valley locations...and mid 70s to around 80F over the hills and
mountains. The night period looks to more active with a good chance
of showers and thunderstorms as the warm front continues to move
across the region. The warm front will likely interact with a short-
wave in the W/SW mid level flow which may enhance the rainfall some.
Showalter indices fall to 0 to -2C for the potential increasing for
elevated convection. Lows will be in the mid 50s to lower 60s.

By Friday...it still remains unclear how far north the front goes by
daybreak. If it stalls over the Mohawk valley/Capital Region
scattered showers and thunderstorms may continue...and more clouds
than sun will be anticipated which will keep temps down a bit.  Have
gone slightly above the superblend of the guidance with upper 70s to
around 80F in the valley areas...and upper 60s to mid 70s over the
elevated terrain.

Friday night in Saturday...There are some trends with the medium
range deterministic guidance and the ensembles that the front will
migrate north of the region...and the isold-sct showers and
thunderstorms will end FRI night.  No clear forcing mechanism
appears to be around Saturday afternoon except the front near the St
Lawrence River Valley.  We have kept a low to slight chc of showers
and thunderstorms in during the day.  It will become more humid with
dewpoints in the upper 50s to mid 60s.  H850 temps remain above
normal in the +14C to +16C range according to the ECMWF.  After lows
in the upper 50s to lower 60s...expect highs in the mid 70s to lower
80s over the forecast area.

Saturday night into Sunday...The middle portion of the Memorial Day
weekend looks to be warm and humid with some diurnally focused isold-
sct showers and thunderstorms as an extension of the subtropical
high builds in from the Mid-Atlantic Region.  Lows will be similar
to the previous night, but highs will be a shade warmer with lower
to mid 80s in the valleys...and mid 70s to lower 80s over the hill
and mountains. Humidity levels will remain high.

Overall...temps look above normal in the long term with pcpn
trending towards normal depending where any convection occurs and
quickly the warm front moves through THU-FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
With the exception of KGFL mainly VFR flying conditions through today.
There might be some residual IFR fog at KGFL through 13Z.

Otherwise VFR today with increasing afternoon clouds. As we head toward
evening showers and thunderstorms are possible at all the TAFS except
for KGFL where only a small chance for showers exist. We have introduce
PROB30 groups for possible thunderstorms reducing conditions to high
end MVFR at KALB/KPSF and KPOU.

There could be some fog again tonight depending on how much rain falls
through then.

The wind will become northerly later today around 5KTS.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night:  Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH values appear to remain moderate or high through much of the week
with full recoveries expected each night. A weak high pressure will
build early today. Low pressure will track to our southeast late
today into Tuesday, spreading more clouds and scattered showers and
perhaps a thunderstorm, mainly from the Capital region south and
east, by late in the day into Tuesday. Then, a Bermuda high will
form eventually taking control of our weather by late in the week.
Before that happens, one more backdoor cold front on Wednesday night
touch off a few more showers or even a thunderstorm mainly from
Albany northward.

The surface wind will be light out of the north or northeast today
through Tuesday, generally 5-9 MPH becoming more western on
Wednesday at similar speeds.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydrologic issues are anticipated through at least
the next 5 days ending Friday.

Unsettled weather is expected with some isolated to scattered
showers late today with better coverage of showers Tuesday. At this
time amounts about a tenth of an inch in our northwestern zones, to
quarter to half an inch in our southeastern zones is anticipated. We
do not expect this rainfall to produce much if any rises on rivers
streams and reservoirs.

There is another chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly from
Albany north on Wednesday with a backdoor cold front. After that,
our area might get into the "ring of fire" with scattered convection
possible the rest of the week. With higher humidity, thunderstorms
later in the week could produce locally heavier rainfall.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...Wasula
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/NAS




000
FXUS61 KOKX 231148
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
748 AM EDT MON MAY 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure off the Mid Atlantic coast moves slowly north today
and tonight, then drifts northeast Tuesday and Tuesday night,
remaining offshore and passing south and east of the region. High
pressure will then briefly follow for Wednesday and Thursday
morning with a cold front stalling in the vicinity Thursday
afternoon or night. The front returns north as a warm front on
Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Updates made primarily for cloud forecast this morning.
Additionally, have delayed onset of rain chances by a couple of
hours this morning. Forecast is otherwise mostly on track.

A weak surface coastal low, 1005 mb, will move slowly north today
as a mid and upper cutoff low drifts along the mid Atlantic coast.
This low and associated cold pool will have vort maxes rotating
around the cutoff low. In addition a weak surface trough will be
developing along the coast. Initial clearing will allow for
daytime heating and surface based instability to increase. Both
the surface trough and upper low will provide convergence and lift
for scattered showers to develop. And with the instability and
cape increasing to 200 to 400 j/kg this afternoon, isolated
thunderstorms will be possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The surface low continues to drift north and northeast tonight
through Tuesday night, remaining offshore, as the mid and upper
cutoff low also drifts along the coast. With the low a little
closer to the coast tonight and additional energy rotating
through, there will be a better, likely, chance of showers. There
may be isolated thunder early, however, cape and instability will
be decreasing. Not all areas will see precipitation, and will be
dependent on where the low and upper low drift.

Once again, Tuesday afternoon thunderstorms will be possible as a
surface trough develops and the low drifts east of the region.
Precipitation ends during Tuesday evening as the upper low begins
to fill and open, moving farther to the east, and height will be
rising at all levels after 03z Wednesday. Could be a rather sharp
end to the precipitation.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Ridging aloft on Wednesday will help slow down a cold front sinking
south across the Northeast. Insufficient moisture and lift should
therefore keep the cwa dry. Mixing to 850 mb, where temps are
forecast to rise to around 13C, along with a mostly sunny sky and SW
winds will bring high temps about 10-15 degrees above normal across
the entire area.

The cold front weakens and stalls over us on Thursday as ridging
aloft continues. Chance of afternoon tstms from around the city and
points west where better instability will reside. Subsidence will
limit mixing more than on Wednesday, so expecting high temps to be a
couple of degrees cooler on average versus Wednesday.

Friday and Saturday look to be similar days with ridging aloft and a
weak SE-S wind flow. This will probably limit chances of
showers/thunderstorms to inland sections both days, and chances
don`t appear to be very high due to limited moisture and/or capping
from ridging aloft. Models however hint at the possibility of an MCS
moving through late Thursday night into early Friday morning, so a
more widespread rainfall is still a possibility. High temps both
days still averaging above normals in spite of a limited mixing
profile.

It appears that Sunday could feature deeper mixing,and along with
rising temps aloft, high temps could end up a few degrees warmer
than currently forecast. Didn`t want to stray too far from WPC
guidance this far out in time, which is warmer than superblend.
Highs well into the 80s for some inland spots. Once again, limited
chances of showers/storms focused inland.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Low pres remains nearly stationary off the Delmarva into Tue.

A lot of variability in the flow thru the taf period. Nearly calm
this mrng then ne flow attempts to develop. Sea breeze flow then
expected to take over by early aftn. Wind direction will become
vrb tngt as the sea breeze circulation weakens.

Mainly vfr thru this eve...although some sct shwrs possible aft
16-18z. Isold tstms cannot be ruled out...particularly from the
city into the Hudson Valley and nern NJ. For tngt...mvfr or lower
in rain aft 5z.


 ...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information...including hourly TAF wind component fcsts can
be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected this mrng.
Low prob of a tstm this aftn.


KLGA TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected this mrng.
Low prob of a tstm this aftn.


KEWR TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected this mrng.
Low prob of a tstm this aftn.


The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is GREEN...which implies
slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud.


KTEB TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected this mrng.
Low prob of a tstm this aftn.


KHPN TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected this mrng. A
tempo may be needed for tstms this aftn...mainly aft 18z.


KISP TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.


.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z Tuesday through Friday...
.Tuesday...periods of mvfr in -shra and/or tstms.
.Wednesday-Thursday...vfr.
.Thursday night...low chc of mvfr -shra.
.Friday...mvfr possible in tstms.

&&

.MARINE...
Small craft seas remain on the ocean waters this morning, mainly
from swells from departing low pressure that was meandering near
Nova Scotia. Seas are expected to fall below 5 feet by late this
morning. The general small craft hazard was converted to a small
craft for hazardous seas and runs through 11 am this morning.

Otherwise, a rather weak pressure gradient force will be across
the waters today through Tuesday night as a weak low off the North
Carolina coast moves north today and tonight, and northeast
Tuesday and Tuesday night. Winds will remain below small craft
levels today through Tuesday night. And seas on the ocean waters
will remain below small craft once the seas subside this morning.

Sub-sca conditions will prevail for the rest of the forecast period
with the lack of a strong pressure gradient or significant swell.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A long period of generally light precipitation is expected today
through Tuesday evening with 1/2 to 3/4 of an inch expected.
Locally higher amounts are possible if any thunderstorms develop
this afternoon and Tuesday afternoon.

Widespread significant rainfall is not expected for the rest of the
week.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 11 AM EDT this
     morning for ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MET
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...JC/MET
HYDROLOGY...JC/MET




000
FXUS61 KBOX 231112
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
712 AM EDT MON MAY 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
We are in between weather systems today, with fair dry weather
during much of the daylight hours. Low pressure moves up the
coast this evening through Tuesday bringing showers and
thunderstorms. A significant warmup will occur Wednesday.
A weak front will move south of the region Wednesday night
with dry, warm weather for Thursday. The front will move north
toward southern New England as a warm front on Friday bringing
scattered showers and thunderstorms. The front will continue to
drift slowly north over the Memorial Day weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
715 AM UPDATE...

Some mid level cloudiness was affecting southeastern Massachusetts
early this morning. Otherwise, skies were clear and isolated fog
patches had already dissipated. No changes to temperatures,
dewpoints, or winds.

Previous discussion...

Closed upper low is in place along the Northeast and Mid Atlantic
coasts, although the most significant instability remains from PA
to North Carolina through the day before moving into Southern New
England this evening.

Heating by the sun will create sufficient mixing to reach near 800
mb, where temps will support max surface values in the mid to
upper 70s. A light northeast surface wind will keep temperatures
near the Mass East Coast in the upper 50s and 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Tonight...

Instability moving up from Eastern PA may reach western CT this
evening and bring a few showers. The more significant feature will
be low pressure surface and aloft that will move north toward New
England. This feature will bring colder temps aloft over our area,
supporting greater instability. Upper jet moving around the low
will be just east of MA with the lift-supporting left exit region
over RI and eastern MA. For both reasons, expect showers moving up
from the south tonight with sufficient instability for a couple of
thunderstorms too. Will use likely POPs, but on the lower side of
this range.

Clouds and the northeast flow off the water point to min sfc temps
near the dew point, in the lower 50s.

Tuesday...

Core of the upper low moves over RI and Eastern MA. Similarity
among the models gives some confidence to this positioning. Core
of the cold pool aloft also moves over our area, so instability
will linger through the day. Concern remains for the chance of a
couple of thunderstorms due to the unstable airmass. We will
mention slight chance of thunder. POPs will be at high-end chance
or low-end likely much of the day.

Tuesday will be much cloudier than today so more limited mixing,
probably to 925 mb or 900 mb. Temps at these levels would support
max surface temps in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Highlights...

 * Significantly warmer Wednesday and Thursday
 * Cooler on Friday with Scattered showers and thunderstorms
 * Warm for Memorial Day weekend with a few showers/thunderstorms

Overview and Model Preferences...

At upper levels...a persistent upper low moves northeast over the
Canadian Maritimes by late Wednesday afternoon. A strong upper
level ridge of high pressure will develop from the mid-Atlantic
coast to New England late in the week and next weekend.

At the surface...a weak front will slip south of the region Wed
night bringing a wind shift to the north and drier air for Thu.
That front will strengthen and move northward as a warm front by
Fri...bringing increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms and
cooler weather. The front will slowly edge northward next weekend
allowing summerlike temperatures to return for the Memorial Day
weekend but with a few showers and thunderstorms possible each day.

Tuesday night... As the upper low finally moves northeast away
from the region, any lingering light showers will end in the
evening and skies will clear out after midnight. Lows mainly
50-55.

Wednesday...

Brief ridge of high pressure to our south takes over, leading to
westerly downslope air flow, drier conditions, and more summer-
like temperatures away from the coast...mainly 80 to 85.There
could be seabreezes, but it appears the synoptic flow could be
just strong enough to prevent lower temperatures along parts of
the MA east coast. Cape Cod and the islands, as well as Cape Ann,
however, will likely remain as cool as the south coast of New
England, where southwest winds should prevail...upper 60s to mid
70s there.

Wednesday night and Thursday... Weak low pressure passes by to our
northeast Wed evening and an associated weak front will move
across our region. The front will usher in very dry air aloft
and light west winds will turn northerly. With a good deal of
sunshine on Thu, high temperatures will again reach the 80 to 85
degree mark over the interior. But there will be a better chance
of sea breezes along the entire east and southeast coastline, with
temperatures only reaching mid 60s to mid 70s at the immediate
coast.

Thursday night and Friday... The front that moved through Wed night
will strengthen to our south and begin to head northward Thu night.
Winds will turn to the east and southeast, bringing an increase in
moisture and a chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms later
Thu night. Friday now looks like a much cooler day than earlier
anticipated, with a warm front in our vicinity and a continuation
of E to SE flow. It will be on the cloudy side with a chance of
showers and thunderstorms, especially in western sections. Highs
only in the 70s...cooler at the immediate coast.

Saturday and Sunday... This far out...there is still a fair amount
of uncertainty. However, it looks like the warm front will drift
slowly northward on Saturday and be completely north of the region
on Sunday. The Memorial Day weekend should feature a return of
summer-like temperatures with highs in the mid 80s. Upper 80s are
possible in the Connecticut River valley on Sunday. There is a
possibility of scattered diurnally-driven afternoon and evening
showers or thunderstorms, but most of the time it should be dry.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Tuesday/...

Today...Moderate-High Confidence.

VFR most of the day. Showers may develop late in the day in CT,
and toward evening along the South Coast. This could bring local
MVFR vsbys at that time.

Tonight...Moderate Confidence.

Showers and widely scattered thunderstorms move across Southern
New England. This will bring a few periods of MVFR cigs and vsbys.
Also MVFR/IFR cigs/vsbys in fog especially in RI and SE Mass.

Tuesday...Moderate Confidence.

Showers and widely scattered thunder will continue. Areas of
MVFR/IFR in showers and fog areas. Conditions may improve to
mainly VFR especially in CT and Western MA late in the day.

KBOS TAF...Greatest uncertainty is in timing of showers for this
evening and tonight. Because of this any mention of showers has
been tagged as vicinity rather than directly mentioned.

KBDL TAF...Greatest uncertainty is in timing of showers for this
evening and tonight. A couple of showers could reach the airport
between 5 PM and 8 PM, but more likely to occur after 8 PM.

Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/...

Tuesday night... Moderate confidence. Any lingering MVFR
improving to VFR after midnight. Could be isolated IFR in patchy
fog late.

Wednesday through Thursday...High Confidence. VFR.

Thursday night and Friday... Low to Moderate Confidence. Mainly
VFR early Thu night...becoming MVFR with areas of IFR in showers
and possible fog patches. Isolated thunderstorms late Thu night.
Mainly MVFR throughout the region on Fri with scattered showers
and thunderstorms. Isolated IFR possible in heavier showers or in
patchy fog mainly near the coast.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Today...Moderate Confidence.

Low pressure moves up the coast from Virginia and the Carolinas.
Most of the day will be fair with North winds turning from the
Northeast. Speeds will be 15 knots or less. Lingering 5 to 7 foot
seas will slowly subside through the day. Small craft advisory
for hazardous seas is in effect, mostly for the outer waters,
through the day.

Tonight and Tuesday...Moderate Confidence.

Coastal low pressure moves across the waters. This will bring
showers and widely scattered thunder with lower visibility in
showers and fog. Winds will remain 15 knots or less, and seas will
mostly be less than 5 feet. A few 5 foot readings could show up on
the southern outer waters Tuesday.

Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/...

Tuesday night into early Wednesday... Moderate Confidence.

A small craft advisory may be needed for seas of 5 to 6 feet over
the southeastern outer waters Tue night...subsiding to below 5
feet by Wed afternoon. Otherwise...light southwesterly winds.

Wednesday night and Thursday... Moderate confidence.

Light winds from the southwest will shift to the northwest Wed
night and to the northeast to east on Thu. Seas mainly well below
small craft criteria...but could reach 5 feet over the waters
southeast of Nantucket late Thu afternoon.

Thursday night and Friday... Moderate confidence.

Southeast winds on the order of 10-15 kt and seas 1 to 3 feet.
Just a slight chance of showers or a thunderstorm.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 11 PM EDT this
     evening for ANZ250-254-255.
     Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until noon EDT today
     for ANZ251.
     Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 8 AM EDT this
     morning for ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/GAF
NEAR TERM...WTB/GAF
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...GAF
AVIATION...WTB/GAF
MARINE...WTB/GAF




000
FXUS61 KOKX 231102
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
702 AM EDT MON MAY 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure off the North Carolina coast moves slowly north today
and tonight, then drifts northeast Tuesday and Tuesday night,
remaining offshore and passing south and east of the
region. High pressure will then briefly follow for Wednesday and
Thursday morning with a cold front stalling in the vicinity
Thursday afternoon or night. The front returns north as a warm
front on Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A weak surface coastal low, 1005 mb, will move slowly north today
as a mid and upper cutoff low drifts along the mid Atlantic coast.
This low and associated cold pool will have vort maxes rotating
around the cutoff low. In addition a weak surface trough will be
developing along the coast. Initial clearing will allow for
daytime heating and surface based instability to increase. Both
the surface trough and upper low will provide convergence and lift
for scattered showers to develop. And with the instability and
cape increasing to 200 to 400 j/kg this afternoon, isolated
thunderstorms will be possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The surface low continues to drift north and northeast tonight
through Tuesday night, remaining offshore, as the mid and upper
cutoff low also drifts along the coast. With the low a little
closer to the coast tonight and additional energy rotating
through, there will be a better, likely, chance of showers. There
may be isolated thunder early, however, cape and instability will
be decreasing. Not all areas will see precipitation, and will be
dependent on where the low and upper low drift.

Once again, Tuesday afternoon thunderstorms will be possible as a
surface trough develops and the low drifts east of the region.
Precipitation ends during Tuesday evening as the upper low begins
to fill and open, moving farther to the east, and height will be
rising at all levels after 03z Wednesday. Could be a rather sharp
end to the precipitation.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Ridging aloft on Wednesday will help slow down a cold front sinking
south across the Northeast. Insufficient moisture and lift should
therefore keep the cwa dry. Mixing to 850 mb, where temps are
forecast to rise to around 13C, along with a mostly sunny sky and SW
winds will bring high temps about 10-15 degrees above normal across
the entire area.

The cold front weakens and stalls over us on Thursday as ridging
aloft continues. Chance of afternoon tstms from around the city and
points west where better instability will reside. Subsidence will
limit mixing more than on Wednesday, so expecting high temps to be a
couple of degrees cooler on average versus Wednesday.

Friday and Saturday look to be similar days with ridging aloft and a
weak SE-S wind flow. This will probably limit chances of
showers/thunderstorms to inland sections both days, and chances
don`t appear to be very high due to limited moisture and/or capping
from ridging aloft. Models however hint at the possibility of an MCS
moving through late Thursday night into early Friday morning, so a
more widespread rainfall is still a possibility. High temps both
days still averaging above normals in spite of a limited mixing
profile.

It appears that Sunday could feature deeper mixing,and along with
rising temps aloft, high temps could end up a few degrees warmer
than currently forecast. Didn`t want to stray too far from WPC
guidance this far out in time, which is warmer than superblend.
Highs well into the 80s for some inland spots. Once again, limited
chances of showers/storms focused inland.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Low pres remains nearly stationary off the Delmarva into Tue.

A lot of variability in the flow thru the taf period. Nearly calm
this mrng then ne flow attempts to develop. Sea breeze flow then
expected to take over by early aftn. Wind direction will become
vrb tngt as the sea breeze circulation weakens.

Mainly vfr thru this eve...although some sct shwrs possible aft
16-18z. Isold tstms cannot be ruled out...particularly from the
city into the Hudson Valley and nern NJ. For tngt...mvfr or lower
in rain aft 5z.


 ...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information...including hourly TAF wind component fcsts can
be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected this mrng.
Low prob of a tstm this aftn.


KLGA TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected this mrng.
Low prob of a tstm this aftn.


KEWR TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected this mrng.
Low prob of a tstm this aftn.


The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is GREEN...which implies
slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud.


KTEB TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected this mrng.
Low prob of a tstm this aftn.


KHPN TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected this mrng. A
tempo may be needed for tstms this aftn...mainly aft 18z.


KISP TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.


.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z Tuesday through Friday...
.Tuesday...periods of mvfr in -shra and/or tstms.
.Wednesday-Thursday...vfr.
.Thursday night...low chc of mvfr -shra.
.Friday...mvfr possible in tstms.

&&

.MARINE...
Small craft seas remain on the ocean waters this morning, mainly
from swells from departing low pressure that was meandering near
Nova Scotia. Seas are expected to fall below 5 feet by late this
morning. The general small craft hazard was converted to a small
craft for hazardous seas and runs through 11 am this morning.

Otherwise, a rather weak pressure gradient force will be across
the waters today through Tuesday night as a weak low off the North
Carolina coast moves north today and tonight, and northeast
Tuesday and Tuesday night. Winds will remain below small craft
levels today through Tuesday night. And seas on the ocean waters
will remain below small craft once the seas subside this morning.

Sub-sca conditions will prevail for the rest of the forecast period
with the lack of a strong pressure gradient or significant swell.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A long periods of generally light precipitation is expected today
through Tuesday evening with 1/2 to 3/4 of an inch expected.
Locally higher amounts are possible if any thunderstorms develop
this afternoon and Tuesday afternoon.

Widespread significant rainfall is not expected for the rest of the
week.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 11 AM EDT this
     morning for ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MET
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...JC/MET
HYDROLOGY...JC/MET




000
FXUS61 KOKX 230835
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
435 AM EDT MON MAY 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure off the North Carolina coast moves slowly north today
and tonight, then drifts northeast Tuesday and Tuesday night,
remaining offshore and passing south and east of the
region. High pressure will then briefly follow for Wednesday and
Thursday morning with a cold front stalling in the vicinity
Thursday afternoon or night. The front returns north as a warm
front on Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A weak surface coastal low, 1005 mb, will move slowly north today
as a mid and upper cutoff low drifts along the mid Atlantic coast.
This low and associated cold pool will have vort maxes rotating
around the cutoff low. In addition a weak surface trough will be
developing along the coast. Initial clearing will allow for
daytime heating and surface based instability to increase. Both
the surface trough and upper low will provide convergence and lift
for scattered showers to develop. And with the instability and
cape increasing to 200 to 400 j/kg this afternoon, isolated
thunderstorms will be possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The surface low continues to drift north and northeast tonight
through Tuesday night, remaining offshore, as the mid and upper
cutoff low also drifts along the coast. With the low a little
closer to the coast tonight and additional energy rotating
through, there will be a better, likely, chance of showers. There
may be isolated thunder early, however, cape and instability will
be decreasing. Not all areas will see precipitation, and will be
dependent on where the low and upper low drift.

Once again, Tuesday afternoon thunderstorms will be possible as a
surface trough develops and the low drifts east of the region.
Precipitation ends during Tuesday evening as the upper low begins
to fill and open, moving farther to the east, and height will be
rising at all levels after 03z Wednesday. Could be a rather sharp
end to the precipitation.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Ridging aloft on Wednesday will help slow down a cold front sinking
south across the Northeast. Insufficient moisture and lift should
therefore keep the cwa dry. Mixing to 850 mb, where temps are
forecast to rise to around 13C, along with a mostly sunny sky and SW
winds will bring high temps about 10-15 degrees above normal across
the entire area.

The cold front weakens and stalls over us on Thursday as ridging
aloft continues. Chance of afternoon tstms from around the city and
points west where better instability will reside. Subsidence will
limit mixing more than on Wednesday, so expecting high temps to be a
couple of degrees cooler on average versus Wednesday.

Friday and Saturday look to be similar days with ridging aloft and a
weak SE-S wind flow. This will probably limit chances of
showers/thunderstorms to inland sections both days, and chances
don`t appear to be very high due to limited moisture and/or capping
from ridging aloft. Models however hint at the possibility of an MCS
moving through late Thursday night into early Friday morning, so a
more widespread rainfall is still a possibility. High temps both
days still averaging above normals in spite of a limited mixing
profile.

It appears that Sunday could feature deeper mixing,and along with
rising temps aloft, high temps could end up a few degrees warmer
than currently forecast. Didn`t want to stray too far from WPC
guidance this far out in time, which is warmer than superblend.
Highs well into the 80s for some inland spots. Once again, limited
chances of showers/storms focused inland.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Weak high pres remains over the area as low pres remains nearly
stationary off the Delmarva into Tue.

A lot of variability in the flow thru the taf period. Nearly calm
this mrng then ne flow attempts to develop. Sea breeze flow then
expected to take over by early aftn. Wind direction will become
vrb tngt as the sea breeze circulation weakens.

Mainly vfr...however some areas of br will likely result in
pockets of mvfr or lower this mrng. Most favorable areas away from
the city arpts. Sct-isold shwrs and tstms possible mainly aft
18z...especially from the Hudson Valley to the city and nern NJ.


 ...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information...including hourly TAF wind component fcsts can
be found at: http://www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected this mrng.
Low prob of a tstm this aftn.


KLGA TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected this mrng.
Low prob of a tstm this aftn.


KEWR TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected this mrng.
Low prob of a tstm this aftn.


The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is GREEN...which implies
slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud.


KTEB TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected this mrng.
Low prob of a tstm this aftn.


KHPN TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected this mrng. A
tempo may be needed for tstms this aftn...mainly aft 18z.


KISP TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.


.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z Tuesday through Friday...
.Late Monday night...mvfr or lower in -ra.
.Tuesday...period of mvfr in -shra.
.Wednesday-Thursday...vfr.
.Thursday night...low chc of mvfr -shra.
.Friday...mvfr possible in tstms.

&&

.MARINE...
Small craft seas remain on the ocean waters this morning, mainly
from swells from departing low pressure that was meandering near
Nova Scotia. Seas are expected to fall below 5 feet by late this
morning. The general small craft hazard was converted to a small
craft for hazardous seas and runs through 11 am this morning.

Otherwise, a rather weak pressure gradient force will be across
the waters today through Tuesday night as a weak low off the North
Carolina coast moves north today and tonight, and northeast
Tuesday and Tuesday night. Winds will remain below small craft
levels today through Tuesday night. And seas on the ocean waters
will remain below small craft once the seas subside this morning.

Sub-sca conditions will prevail for the rest of the forecast period
with the lack of a strong pressure gradient or significant swell.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A long periods of generally light precipitation is expected today
through Tuesday evening with 1/2 to 3/4 of an inch expected.
Locally higher amounts are possible if any thunderstorms develop
this afternoon and Tuesday afternoon.

Widespread significant rainfall is not expected for the rest of the
week.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 11 AM EDT this
     morning for ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MET
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...JC/MET
HYDROLOGY...JC/MET




000
FXUS61 KBOX 230823
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
423 AM EDT MON MAY 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
We are in between weather systems today, with fair dry weather
during much of the daylight hours. Low pressure moves up the
coast this evening through Tuesday bringing showers and
thunderstorms. A significant warmup will occur Wednesday.
A weak front will move south of the region Wednesday night
with dry, warm weather for Thursday. The front will move north
toward southern New England as a warm front on Friday bringing
scattered showers and thunderstorms. The front will continue to
drift slowly north over the Memorial Day weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Closed upper low is in place along the Northeast and Mid Atlantic
coasts, although the most significant instability remains from PA
to North Carolina through the day before moving into Southern New
England this evening.

Heating by the sun will create sufficient mixing to reach near 800
mb, where temps will support max surface values in the mid to
upper 70s. A light northeast surface wind will keep temperatures
near the Mass East Coast in the upper 50s and 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Tonight...

Instability moving up from Eastern PA may reach western CT this
evening and bring a few showers. The more significant feature will
be low pressure surface and aloft that will move north toward New
England. This feature will bring colder temps aloft over our area,
supporting greater instability. Upper jet moving around the low
will be just east of MA with the lift-supporting left exit region
over RI and eastern MA. For both reasons, expect showers moving up
from the south tonight with sufficient instability for a couple of
thunderstorms too. Will use likely POPs, but on the lower side of
this range.

Clouds and the northeast flow off the water point to min sfc temps
near the dew point, in the lower 50s.

Tuesday...

Core of the upper low moves over RI and Eastern MA. Similarity
among the models gives some confidence to this positioning. Core
of the cold pool aloft also moves over our area, so instability
will linger through the day. Concern remains for the chance of a
couple of thunderstorms due to the unstable airmass. We will
mention slight chance of thunder. POPs will be at high-end chance
or low-end likely much of the day.

Tuesday will be much cloudier than today so more limited mixing,
probably to 925 mb or 900 mb. Temps at these levels would support
max surface temps in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Highlights...

 * Significantly warmer Wednesday and Thursday
 * Cooler on Friday with Scattered showers and thunderstorms
 * Warm for Memorial Day weekend with a few showers/thunderstorms

Overview and Model Preferences...

At upper levels...a persistent upper low moves northeast over the
Canadian Maritimes by late Wednesday afternoon. A strong upper
level ridge of high pressure will develop from the mid-Atlantic
coast to New England late in the week and next weekend.

At the surface...a weak front will slip south of the region Wed
night bringing a wind shift to the north and drier air for Thu.
That front will strengthen and move northward as a warm front by
Fri...bringing increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms and
cooler weather. The front will slowly edge northward next weekend
allowing summerlike temperatures to return for the Memorial Day
weekend but with a few showers and thunderstorms possible each day.

Tuesday night... As the upper low finally moves northeast away
from the region, any lingering light showers will end in the
evening and skies will clear out after midnight. Lows mainly
50-55.

Wednesday...

Brief ridge of high pressure to our south takes over, leading to
westerly downslope air flow, drier conditions, and more summer-
like temperatures away from the coast...mainly 80 to 85.There
could be seabreezes, but it appears the synoptic flow could be
just strong enough to prevent lower temperatures along parts of
the MA east coast. Cape Cod and the islands, as well as Cape Ann,
however, will likely remain as cool as the south coast of New
England, where southwest winds should prevail...upper 60s to mid
70s there.

Wednesday night and Thursday... Weak low pressure passes by to our
northeast Wed evening and an associated weak front will move
across our region. The front will usher in very dry air aloft
and light west winds will turn northerly. With a good deal of
sunshine on Thu, high temperatures will again reach the 80 to 85
degree mark over the interior. But there will be a better chance
of sea breezes along the entire east and southeast coastline, with
temperatures only reaching mid 60s to mid 70s at the immediate
coast.

Thursday night and Friday... The front that moved through Wed night
will strengthen to our south and begin to head northward Thu night.
Winds will turn to the east and southeast, bringing an increase in
moisture and a chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms later
Thu night. Friday now looks like a much cooler day than earlier
anticipated, with a warm front in our vicinity and a continuation
of E to SE flow. It will be on the cloudy side with a chance of
showers and thunderstorms, especially in western sections. Highs
only in the 70s...cooler at the immediate coast.

Saturday and Sunday... This far out...there is still a fair amount
of uncertainty. However, it looks like the warm front will drift
slowly northward on Saturday and be completely north of the region
on Sunday. The Memorial Day weekend should feature a return of
summer-like temperatures with highs in the mid 80s. Upper 80s are
possible in the Connecticut River valley on Sunday. There is a
possibility of scattered diurnally-driven afternoon and evening
showers or thunderstorms, but most of the time it should be dry.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Tuesday/...

Today...Moderate-High Confidence.

VFR most of the day. Areas of IFR ceilings/vsbys in patchy early
morning fog, especially in Greater Springfield and in the
lowlands of Southeast MA. Showers may develop late in the day in
CT, and toward evening along the South Coast. This could bring
local MVFR vsbys at that time.

Tonight...Moderate Confidence.

Showers and widely scattered thunderstorms move across Southern
New England. This will bring a few periods of MVFR cigs and vsbys.
Also MVFR/IFR cigs/vsbys in fog especially in RI and SE Mass.

Tuesday...Moderate Confidence.

Showers and widely scattered thunder will continue. Areas of
MVFR/IFR in showers and fog areas. Conditions may improve to
mainly VFR especially in CT and Western MA late in the day.

KBOS TAF...Greatest uncertainty is in timing of showers for this
evening and tonight. Because of this any mention of showers has
been tagged as vicinity rather than directly mentioned.

KBDL TAF...Greatest uncertainty is in timing of showers for this
evening and tonight. A couple of showers could reach the airport
between 5 PM and 8 PM, but more likely to occur after 8 PM.

Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/...

Tuesday night... Moderate confidence. Any lingering MVFR
improving to VFR after midnight. Could be isolated IFR in patchy
fog late.

Wednesday through Thursday...High Confidence. VFR.

Thursday night and Friday... Low to Moderate Confidence. Mainly
VFR early Thu night...becoming MVFR with areas of IFR in showers
and possible fog patches. Isolated thunderstorms late Thu night.
Mainly MVFR throughout the region on Fri with scattered showers
and thunderstorms. Isolated IFR possible in heavier showers or in
patchy fog mainly near the coast.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Today...Moderate Confidence.

Low pressure moves up the coast from Virginia and the Carolinas.
Most of the day will be fair with North winds turning from the
Northeast. Speeds will be 15 knots or less. Seas will slowly
subside through the day with lingering 5 to 7 foot seas subsiding
through the day. Small craft advisory for hazardous seas is in
effect, mostly for the outer waters, through the day.

Tonight and Tuesday...Moderate Confidence.

Coastal low pressure moves across the waters. This will bring
showers and widely scattered thunder with lower visibility in
showers and fog. Winds will remain 15 knots or less, and seas will
mostly be less than 5 feet. A few 5 foot readings could show up on
the southern outer waters Tuesday.

Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/...

Tuesday night into early Wednesday... Moderate Confidence.

A small craft advisory may be needed for seas of 5 to 6 feet over
the southeastern outer waters Tue night...subsiding to below 5
feet by Wed afternoon. Otherwise...light southwesterly winds.

Wednesday night and Thursday... Moderate confidence.

Light winds from the southwest will shift to the northwest Wed
night and to the northeast to east on Thu. Seas mainly well below
small craft criteria...but could reach 5 feet over the waters
southeast of Nantucket late Thu afternoon.

Thursday night and Friday... Moderate confidence.

Southeast winds on the order of 10-15 kt and seas 1 to 3 feet.
Just a slight chance of showers or a thunderstorm.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 11 PM EDT this
     evening for ANZ250-254-255.
     Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until noon EDT today
     for ANZ251.
     Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 8 AM EDT this
     morning for ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/GAF
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...GAF
AVIATION...WTB/GAF
MARINE...WTB/GAF




000
FXUS61 KBOX 230822
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
422 AM EDT MON MAY 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
We are in between weather systems today, with fair dry weather
during much of the daylight hours. Low pressure moves up the
coast this evening through Tuesday bringing showers and
thunderstorms. A significant warmup will occur Wednesday.
A weak front will move south of the region Wednesday night
with dry, warm weather for Thursday. The front will move north
toward southern New England as a warm front on Friday bringing
scattered showers and thunderstorms. The front will continue to
drift slowly north over the Memorial Day weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Closed upper low is in place along the Northeast and Mid Atlantic
coasts, although the most significant instability remains from PA
to North Carolina through the day before moving into Southern New
England this evening.

Heating by the sun will create sufficient mixing to reach near 800
mb, where temps will support max surface values in the mid to
upper 70s. A light northeast surface wind will keep temperatures
near the Mass East Coast in the upper 50s and 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Tonight...

Instability moving up from Eastern PA may reach western CT this
evening and bring a few showers. The more significant feature will
be low pressure surface and aloft that will move north toward New
England. This feature will bring colder temps aloft over our area,
supporting greater instability. Upper jet moving around the low
will be just east of MA with the lift-supporting left exit region
over RI and eastern MA. For both reasons, expect showers moving up
from the south tonight with sufficient instability for a couple of
thunderstorms too. Will use likely POPs, but on the lower side of
this range.

Clouds and the northeast flow off the water point to min sfc temps
near the dew point, in the lower 50s.

Tuesday...

Core of the upper low moves over RI and Eastern MA. Similarity
among the models gives some confidence to this positioning. Core
of the cold pool aloft also moves over our area, so instability
will linger through the day. Concern remains for the chance of a
couple of thunderstorms due to the unstable airmass. We will
mention slight chance of thunder. POPs will be at high-end chance
or low-end likely much of the day.

Tuesday will be much cloudier than today so more limited mixing,
probably to 925 mb or 900 mb. Temps at these levels would support
max surface temps in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Highlights...

 * Significantly warmer Wednesday and Thursday
 * Cooler on Friday with Scattered showers and thunderstorms
 * Warm for Memorial Day weekend with a few showers/thunderstorms

Overview and Model Preferences...

At upper levels...a persistent upper low moves northeast over the
Canadian Maritimes by late Wednesday afternoon. A strong upper
level ridge of high pressure will develop from the mid-Atlantic
coast to New England late in the week and next weekend.

At the surface...a weak front will slip south of the region Wed
night bringing a wind shift to the north and drier air for Thu.
That front will strengthen and move northward as a warm front by
Fri...bringing increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms and
cooler weather. The front will slowly edge northward next weekend
allowing summerlike temperatures to return for the Memorial Day
weekend but with a few showers and thunderstorms possible each day.

Tuesday night... As the upper low finally moves northeast away
from the region, any lingering light showers will end in the
evening and skies will clear out after midnight. Lows mainly
50-55.

Wednesday...

Brief ridge of high pressure to our south takes over, leading to
westerly downslope air flow, drier conditions, and more summer-
like temperatures away from the coast...mainly 80 to 85.There
could be seabreezes, but it appears the synoptic flow could be
just strong enough to prevent lower temperatures along parts of
the MA east coast. Cape Cod and the islands, as well as Cape Ann,
however, will likely remain as cool as the south coast of New
England, where southwest winds should prevail...upper 60s to mid
70s there.

Wednesday night and Thursday... Weak low pressure passes by to our
northeast Wed evening and an associated weak front will move
across our region. The front will usher in very dry air aloft
and light west winds will turn northerly. With a good deal of
sunshine on Thu, high temperatures will again reach the 80 to 85
degree mark over the interior. But there will be a better chance
of sea breezes along the entire east and southeast coastline, with
temperatures only reaching mid 60s to mid 70s at the immediate
coast.

Thursday night and Friday... The front that moved through Wed night
will strengthen to our south and begin to head northward Thu night.
Winds will turn to the east and southeast, bringing an increase in
moisture and a chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms later
Thu night. Friday now looks like a much cooler day than earlier
anticipated, with a warm front in our vicinity and a continuation
of E to SE flow. It will be on the cloudy side with a chance of
showers and thunderstorms, especially in western sections. Highs
only in the 70s...cooler at the immediate coast.

Saturday and Sunday... This far out...there is still a fair amount
of uncertainty. However, it looks like the warm front will drift
slowly northward on Saturday and be completely north of the region
on Sunday. The Memorial Day weekend should feature a return of
summer-like temperatures with highs in the mid 80s. Upper 80s are
possible in the Connecticut River valley on Sunday. There is a
possibility of scattered diurnally-driven afternoon and evening
showers or thunderstorms, but most of the time it should be dry.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Tuesday/...

Today...Moderate-High Confidence.

VFR most of the day. Areas of IFR ceilings/vsbys in patchy early
morning fog, especially in Greater Springfield and in the
lowlands of Southeast MA. Showers may develop late in the day in
CT, and toward evening along the South Coast. This could bring
local MVFR vsbys at that time.

Tonight...Moderate Confidence.

Showers and widely scattered thunderstorms move across Southern
New England. This will bring a few periods of MVFR cigs and vsbys.
Also MVFR/IFR cigs/vsbys in fog especially in RI and SE Mass.

Tuesday...Moderate Confidence.

Showers and widely scattered thunder will continue. Areas of
MVFR/IFR in showers and fog areas. Conditions may improve to
mainly VFR especially in CT and Western MA late in the day.

KBOS TAF...Greatest uncertainty is in timing of showers for this
evening and tonight. Because of this any mention of showers has
been tagged as vicinity rather than directly mentioned.

KBDL TAF...Greatest uncertainty is in timing of showers for this
evening and tonight. A couple of showers could reach the airport
between 5 PM and 8 PM, but more likely to occur after 8 PM.

Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/...

Tuesday night... Moderate confidence. Any lingering MVFR
improving to VFR after midnight. Could be isolated IFR in patchy
fog late.

Wednesday through Thursday...High Confidence. VFR.

Thursday night and Friday... Low to Moderate Confidence. Mainly
VFR early Thu night...becoming MVFR with areas of IFR in showers
and possible fog patches. Isolated thunderstorms late Thu night.
Mainly MVFR throughout the region on Fri with scattered showers
and thunderstorms. Isolated IFR possible in heavier showers or in
patchy fog mainly near the coast.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Today...Moderate Confidence.

Low pressure moves up the coast from Virginia and the Carolinas.
Most of the day will be fair with North winds turning from the
Northeast. Speeds will be 15 knots or less. Seas will slowly
subside through the day with lingering 5 to 7 foot seas subsiding
through the day. Small craft advisory for hazardous seas is in
effect, mostly for the outer waters, through the day.

Tonight and Tuesday...Moderate Confidence.

Coastal low pressure moves across the waters. This will bring
showers and widely scattered thunder with lower visibility in
showers and fog. Winds will remain 15 knots or less, and seas will
mostly be less than 5 feet. A few 5 foot readings could show up on
the southern outer waters Tuesday.

Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/...

Tuesday night into early Wednesday... Moderate Confidence.

A small craft advisory may be needed for seas of 5 to 6 feet over
the southeastern outer waters Tue night...subsiding to below 5
feet by Wed afternoon. Otherwise...light southwesterly winds.

Wednesday night and Thursday... Moderate confidence.

Light winds from the southwest will shift to the northwest Wed
night and to the northeast to east on Thu. Seas mainly well below
small craft criteria...but could reach 5 feet over the waters
southeast of Nantucket late Thu afternoon.

Thursday night and Friday... Moderate confidence.

Southeast winds on the order of 10-15 kt and seas 1 to 3 feet.
Just a slight chance of showers or a thunderstorm.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until noon EDT today
     for ANZ231-251.
     Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 11 PM EDT this
     evening for ANZ250-254-255.
     Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 8 AM EDT this
     morning for ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/GAF
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...GAF
AVIATION...WTB/GAF
MARINE...WTB/GAF




000
FXUS61 KBOX 230703
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
303 AM EDT MON MAY 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
We are in between weather systems today, with fair dry weather
during much of the daylight hours. Coastal low pressure moves up
the coast this evening through Tuesday bringing showers and
thunderstorms. A significant warmup will occur Wednesday,
continuing into next weekend. Scattered showers or thunderstorms
are possible from Thursday into next weekend, especially over
western sections.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Closed upper low is in place along the Northeast and Mid Atlantic
coasts, although the most significant instability remains from PA
to North Carolina through the day before moving into Southern New
England this evening.

Heating by the sun will create sufficient mixing to reach near 800
mb, where temps will support max surface values in the mid to
upper 70s. A light northeast surface wind will keep temperatures
near the Mass East Coast in the upper 50s and 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Tonight...

Instability moving up from Eastern PA may reach western CT this
evening and bring a few showers. The more significant feature will
be low pressure surface and aloft that will move north toward New
England. This feature will bring colder temps aloft over our area,
supporting greater instability. Upper jet moving around the low
will be just east of MA with the lift-supporting left exit region
over RI and eastern MA. For both reasons, expect showers moving up
from the south tonight with sufficient instability for a couple of
thunderstorms too. Will use likely POPs, but on the lower side of
this range.

Clouds and the northeast flow off the water point to min sfc temps
near the dew point, in the lower 50s.

Tuesday...

Core of the upper low moves over RI and Eastern MA. Similarity
among the models gives some confidence to this positioning. Core
of the cold pool aloft also moves over our area, so instability
will linger through the day. Concern remains for the chance of a
couple of thunderstorms due to the unstable airmass. We will
mention slight chance of thunder. POPs will be at high-end chance
or low-end likely much of the day.

Tuesday will be much cloudier than today so more limited mixing,
probably to 925 mb or 900 mb. Temps at these levels would support
max surface temps in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Highlights...

 * Significantly warmer Wednesday into next weekend
 * Scattered showers and thunderstorms Thursday into next weekend,
   especially over western sections.

Overview and Model Preferences...

Very good agreement in the latest guidance suite in moving a
persistent upper low toward the Maritimes by late Wednesday
afternoon. Strong ridging over the north Atlantic edges west over
the southeast USA late this week. This will mean more summer-like
conditions late this week into next weekend. With the increasing
heat and humidity, also expecting the possibility for diurnal
showers and thunderstorms, each day.

Subtle, but significant, differences in the details Friday into
next weekend. The predictability of these details is rather low,
so will favor a consensus approach, for now.

Details...

Wednesday...

Brief ridge of high pressure to our south takes over, leading to
downslope air flow, drier conditions, and more summer-like
temperatures away from the coast. There could be seabreezes, but
it appears the synoptic flow could be just strong enough to
prevent lower temperatures along parts of the MA east coast. Cape
Cod and the islands, as well as Cape Ann, however, will likely
remain as cool as the south coast of New England, where southwest
winds should prevail.

Thursday through Sunday...

This still appears to be a prolonged period of summer-like heat
and humidity, especially away from the coasts. The questions to
be answered during this portion of the forecast are: where will a
frontal boundary be between Thursday and Friday, and how quickly
will it move? A scenario can be seen where we wind up on the cold
side Friday, which would mean lower temperatures and a greater
risk for showers.

Diurnal showers, and perhaps some thunderstorms, are expected
through most of this period. The position of this front will have
a large impact on chances, and is one of the more uncertain
aspects of this forecast. Will keep a chance for showers in the
forecast until this critical detail can be better worked out.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Tuesday/...

Today...Moderate-High Confidence.

VFR most of the day. Areas of IFR ceilings/vsbys in patchy early
morning fog, especially in Greater Springfield and in the
lowlands of Southeast MA. Showers may develop late in the day in
CT, and toward evening along the South Coast. This could bring
local MVFR vsbys at that time.

Tonight...Moderate Confidence.

Showers and widely scattered thunderstorms move across Southern
New England. This will bring a few periods of MVFR cigs and vsbys.
Also MVFR/IFR cigs/vsbys in fog especially in RI and SE Mass.

Tuesday...Moderate Confidence.

Showers and widely scattered thunder will continue. Areas of
MVFR/IFR in showers and fog areas. Conditions may improve to
mainly VFR especially in CT and Western MA late in the day.


KBOS TAF...Greatest uncertainty is in timing of showers for this
evening and tonight. Because of this any mention of showers has
been tagged as vicinity rather than directly mentioned.

KBDL TAF...Greatest uncertainty is in timing of showers for this
evening and tonight. A couple of showers could reach the airport
between 5 PM and 8 PM, but more likely to occur after 8 PM.

Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/...

Wednesday...High Confidence. Mainly VFR.

Thursday...Moderate Confidence. Mainly VFR. Scattered MVFR in
scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly west of KLWM-KORH-KIJD.

Friday...Moderate Confidence. Mainly VFR. Scattered MVFR in
scattered showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Today...Moderate Confidence.

Low pressure moves up the coast from Virginia and the Carolinas.
Most of the day will be fair with North winds turning from the
Northeast. Speeds will be 15 knots or less. Seas will slowly
subside through the day with lingering 5 to 7 foot seas subsiding
through the day. Small craft advisory for hazardous seas is in
effect, mostly for the outer waters, through the day.

Tonight and Tuesday...Moderate Confidence.

Coastal low pressure moves across the waters. This will bring
showers and widely scattered thunder with lower visibility in
showers and fog. Winds will remain 15 knots or less, and seas will
mostly be less than 5 feet. A few 5 foot readings could show up on
the southern outer waters Tuesday.

Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/...

Wednesday into Friday...High Confidence.

High pressure briefly builds over the waters. Mainly quiet
boating weather is expected with winds and seas below Small Craft
Advisory levels.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until noon EDT today
     for ANZ231-251.
     Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 11 PM EDT this
     evening for ANZ250-254-255.
     Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 8 AM EDT this
     morning for ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/Belk
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...Belk
AVIATION...WTB/Belk
MARINE...WTB/Belk




000
FXUS61 KBOX 230701
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
301 AM EDT MON MAY 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
We are in between weather systems today, with fair dry weather
during much of the daylight hours. Coastal low pressure moves up
the coast this evening through Tuesday bringing showers and
thunderstorms. A significant warmup will occur Wednesday,
continuing into next weekend. Scattered showers or thunderstorms
are possible from Thursday into next weekend, especially over
western sections.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

Closed upper low is in place along the Northeast and Mid Atlantic
coasts, although the most significant instability remains from PA
to North Carolina through the day before moving into Southern New
England this evening.

Heating by the sun will create sufficient mixing to reach near 800
mb, where temps will support max surface values in the mid to
upper 70s. A light northeast surface wind will keep temperatures
near the Mass East Coast in the upper 50s and 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...

Tonight...

Instability moving up from Eastern PA may reach western CT this
evening and bring a few showers. The more significant feature will
be low pressure surface and aloft that will move north toward New
England. This feature will bring colder temps aloft over our area,
supporting greater instability. Upper jet moving around the low
will be just east of MA with the lift-supporting left exit region
over RI and eastern MA. For both reasons, expect showers moving up
from the south tonight with sufficient instability for a couple of
thunderstorms too. Will use likely POPs, but on the lower side of
this range.

Clouds and the northeast flow off the water point to min sfc temps
near the dew point, in the lower 50s.

Tuesday...

Core of the upper low moves over RI and Eastern MA. Similarity
among the models gives some confidence to this positioning. Core
of the cold pool aloft also moves over our area, so instability
will linger through the day. Concern remains for the chance of a
couple of thunderstorms due to the unstable airmass. We will
mention slight chance of thunder. POPs will be at high-end chance
or low-end likely much of the day.

Tuesday will be much cloudier than today so more limited mixing,
probably to 925 mb or 900 mb. Temps at these levels would support
max surface temps in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Highlights...

 * Significantly warmer Wednesday into next weekend
 * Scattered showers and thunderstorms Thursday into next weekend,
   especially over western sections.

Overview and Model Preferences...

Very good agreement in the latest guidance suite in moving a
persistent upper low toward the Maritimes by late Wednesday
afternoon. Strong ridging over the north Atlantic edges west over
the southeast USA late this week. This will mean more summer-like
conditions late this week into next weekend. With the increasing
heat and humidity, also expecting the possibility for diurnal
showers and thunderstorms, each day.

Subtle, but significant, differences in the details Friday into
next weekend. The predictability of these details is rather low,
so will favor a consensus approach, for now.

Details...

Wednesday...

Brief ridge of high pressure to our south takes over, leading to
downslope air flow, drier conditions, and more summer-like
temperatures away from the coast. There could be seabreezes, but
it appears the synoptic flow could be just strong enough to
prevent lower temperatures along parts of the MA east coast. Cape
Cod and the islands, as well as Cape Ann, however, will likely
remain as cool as the south coast of New England, where southwest
winds should prevail.

Thursday through Sunday...

This still appears to be a prolonged period of summer-like heat
and humidity, especially away from the coasts. The questions to
be answered during this portion of the forecast are: where will a
frontal boundary be between Thursday and Friday, and how quickly
will it move? A scenario can be seen where we wind up on the cold
side Friday, which would mean lower temperatures and a greater
risk for showers.

Diurnal showers, and perhaps some thunderstorms, are expected
through most of this period. The position of this front will have
a large impact on chances, and is one of the more uncertain
aspects of this forecast. Will keep a chance for showers in the
forecast until this critical detail can be better worked out.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Tuesday/...

Today...Moderate-High Confidence.

VFR most of the day. Areas of IFR ceilings/vsbys in patchy early
morning fog, especially in Greater Springfield and in the
lowlands of Southeast MA. Showers may develop late in the day in
CT, and toward evening along the South Coast. This could bring
local MVFR vsbys at that time.

Tonight...Moderate Confidence.

Showers and widely scattered thunderstorms move across Southern
New England. This will bring a few periods of MVFR cigs and vsbys.
Also MVFR/IFR cigs/vsbys in fog especially in RI and SE Mass.

Tuesday...Moderate Confidence.

Showers and widely scattered thunder will continue. Areas of
MVFR/IFR in showers and fog areas. Conditions may improve to
mainly VFR especially in CT and Western MA late in the day.


KBOS TAF...Greatest uncertainty is in timing of showers for this
evening and tonight. Because of this any mention of showers has
been tagged as vicinity rather than directly mentioned.

KBDL TAF...Greatest uncertainty is in timing of showers for this
evening and tonight. A couple of showers could reach the airport
between 5 PM and 8 PM, but more likely to occur after 8 PM.

Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/...

Wednesday...High Confidence. Mainly VFR.

Thursday...Moderate Confidence. Mainly VFR. Scattered MVFR in
scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly west of KLWM-KORH-KIJD.

Friday...Moderate Confidence. Mainly VFR. Scattered MVFR in
scattered showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Today...Moderate Confidence.

Low pressure moves up the coast from Virginia and the Carolinas.
Most of the day will be fair with North winds turning from the
Northeast. Speeds will be 15 knots or less. Seas will slowly
subside through the day with lingering 5 to 7 foot seas subsiding
through the day. Small craft advisory for hazardous seas is in
effect, mostly for the outer waters, through the day.

Tonight and Tuesday...Moderate Confidence.

Coastal low pressure moves across the waters. This will bring
showers and widely scattered thunder with lower visibility in
showers and fog. Winds will remain 15 knots or less, and seas will
mostly be less than 5 feet. A few 5 foot readings could show up on
the southern outer waters Tuesday.

Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/...

Wednesday into Friday...High Confidence.

High pressure briefly builds over the waters. Mainly quiet
boating weather is expected with winds and seas below Small Craft
Advisory levels.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until noon EDT today
     for ANZ231-251.
     Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 11 PM EDT this
  evening for ANZ250-254-255. Small Craft Advisory for hazardous
seas until 8 AM EDT this morning for ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/Belk
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...Belk
AVIATION...WTB/Belk
MARINE...WTB/Belk




000
FXUS61 KALY 230621
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
215 AM EDT MON MAY 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will move east of Cape Cod tonight. High pressure will
briefly build in from the Great Lakes Region and Midwest through
early today. Low pressure tracking close to southern New England
Monday night into Tuesday will bring scattered showers to locations
from the Capital Region south and east.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 200 AM EDT, most if not all showers were gone from the radar
scope and even many of the earlier clouds have dissipated.
Subsidence over the region, but will keep slight chances of pops in
a few more hours across areas north and west of the Capital region
where a decaying frontal boundary still lies.

Otherwise it will be a clear to partly overnight with a little
patchy fog as temperatures slip back to the mid 40s to lower 50s
region wide. The wind will be light or calm.

So, only minor changes to the near time at this time.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Periods of sun and clouds Monday as the upper low forms well to
our south...but with moisture in place along the northwestern
periphery...perhaps a bit more cloud cover in the mid Hudson
Valley and NW CT than other areas. More coverage of clouds and
some isolated to scattered showers developing Monday afternoon
once the upper low begins to track north. Highs Monday in the mid
to upper 70s...lower 70s higher terrain.

Upper low slowly tracks northeast off the mid Atlantic coast
Monday night and Tuesday...crossing in the vicinity of Cape Cod
Tuesday afternoon and night. As the northwestern periphery of the
moisture associated with the upper low tracks through eastern NY
and western New England Monday night and Tuesday...scattered
showers with the best coverage into the mid Hudson Valley...NW
CT...the Berkshires and southern VT. Highs Tuesday with the rain
and clouds in the upper 60s to lower 70s...approaching mid 70s
northern areas where cloud and rain coverage the least.

Rain moves out Tuesday evening with partial clearing later at
night...then increasing sunshine Wednesday. Although...a weak cold
front associated with a small upper impulse tracking southeast
out of Canada could bring some isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms mainly to western and northern areas by Wednesday
afternoon. Highs Wednesday in the upper 70s to lower 80s...some
mid 70s higher elevations.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A more late spring/summer like pattern should develop during the
long term period. However, a back door cold front is expected to
settle southward Wednesday night/early Thursday, before slowly
retreating back north and east Friday into Saturday. There remains
uncertainty as to how quickly, and how far north and east the front
lifts back, as any delay would keep cloudier/cooler conditions
across the region into at least a portion of next weekend, while a
quicker northward retreat would allow very warm and humid air to
pour into the region.

At this time, have sided close to a blend of 12Z/22 GFS, GEFS mean
and ECMWF.

So, for Wednesday night into Thursday, have some slight chances for
showers/thunder for Wed evening, especially across northern areas,
then generally dry for Thursday as the front settles to our south
and shortwave ridging translates east across the region. Then,
chances for showers and thunderstorms increase for Thursday night-
Friday as the front lifts northward as a warm front. There is a
possibility that a weak wave of low pressure ripples east along the
warm front, which could provide more widespread
showers/thunderstorms at some point late Thursday night or Friday.

Showers/thunderstorms are indicated as becoming more
isolated/scattered, and focused more on diurnal effects for Saturday
and Sunday, assuming the front lifts to our north. However, if it is
slower progressing north, then more persistent showers and
thunderstorms could affect portions of the region through next
weekend.

As for temperatures, expect a mild Wednesday night/Thursday morning,
with mainly 50s. For Thursday, expect max temps to reach the mid 70s
to lower 80s, warmest in valley areas. Thursday night/Friday morning
min temps may be a bit milder due to clouds, with mid 50s to lower
60s expected.

Trickier temperature forecast for Friday max temps, as the front
lifts northward, and clouds/showers and thunderstorms may occur.
Have generally indicated 70s for most areas, with some 60s across
higher terrain of the Adirondacks and southern VT.

For Friday night through Sunday, more humid conditions along with
warmer temperatures are indicated, assuming the front lifts to our
north. Expect overnight low temperatures in the mid 50s to mid 60s,
with daytime high temperatures mainly in the lower/mid 80s in
valleys, and 75-80 across higher terrain. Again, ultimately these
temperatures will depend on the northward progression of the front.
If the front lifts northward sooner, even warmer temperatures could
occur.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 06Z, LIFR FG was reported KGFL. Will have to carry some IFR
fog there for the rest of the overnight even though our local Fog
study indicated it would not happen.

Otherwise, mainly VFR flying conditions through the TAF period,
except for some occasional MVFR Mist 08Z-11Z at all the TAF sites
except KALB and of course KGFL. KALB we will keep all VFR while KGFL
will have include IFR conditions.

After reviewing Ian`s Fog study, it indicated no fog would form at
any of the sites. However, the temperature and dewpoint readings
were closing in at a few of the sites, along with little or wind
and a mainly clear sky and again already IFR fog at KGFL.

The "Crossover" temperatures appeared to be around 50 degrees but we
are forecasting lows slightly lower than that at KPSF/KPOU and KGFL.
The previous forecast already had MVFR Mist in at KSPF so it made
sense to keep their (at least as a Tempo Group) for the overnight
hours and included some MVFR Mist at KPOU. We will keep out of KALB
for now.

Any fog will dissipate by 12Z leaving VFR conditions. High clouds
will slowly increase and lower again and yet another upper air low
approaches from the southeast. Once again, this feature does not
appear to bring a widespread soaking rainfall, but certainly
scattered to numerous showers, mainly south and east of Albany late
in the day but more tonight. For now, just went with VCSH at all the
terminals (other than KGFL) since confidence of the rain producing
even MVFR conditions was rather low.

The wind will become northerly later today around 5KTS.

Outlook...

Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Low pressure will move east of Cape Cod tonight. High pressure
will briefly build in from the Great Lakes Region and Midwest
tonight into early Monday. Low pressure tracking close to southern
New England Monday night into Tuesday will bring showers to
locations from the Capital Region south and east.

Expecting mainly dry weather Monday with scattered showers
developing late Monday afternoon. Minimum RH values Monday
afternoon are expected to be 35 to 50 percent. Better coverage of
showers is expected Tuesday with minimum RH values Tuesday
afternoon mainly in the 55 to 75 percent range.

The winds are expected to be northwest to northeast at 5 to 10 mph
today...and light to calm tonight...and north to northeast at less
than 10 mph for Tuesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydrologic issues are anticipated through at least
the next 5 days ending Thursday.

Unsettled weather is expected with some isolated to scattered showers
tonight with better coverage of showers Tuesday. At this time
amounts of two tenths of an inch to half an inch are expected
through Tuesday.

Overall...this rainfall will have little impact on area rivers...
streams...and reservoirs. Most river levels will remain fairly
steady through the weekend and into the middle of next week.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/NAS
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/KL/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS




000
FXUS61 KOKX 230522
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
122 AM EDT MON MAY 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Weakening low pressure remains nearly stationary near Nova Scotia
overnight as another low develops off the mid Atlantic coast.
This low will approach the region from the south on Monday,
passing to the south and east on Tuesday. High pressure will then
briefly follow for Wednesday and Thursday with a cold front
slipping south of the area Thursday night. The front returns north
as a warm front on Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Clearing continues overnight with weak subsidence with mainly high
clouds across the region. low pressure remains, and weakens, near
Nova Scotia overnight.

With light winds and clearing skies temperatures across outlying
areas have fallen and lowered temperatures a couple of degrees
overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
There will be a chance for showers once again north and west of
New York City on Monday, with the upper level low still in the
vicinity. Another coastal low will develop off the Mid-Atlantic
coast and track northeast through Monday night. This will allow
the chance for showers to overspread the region into the afternoon
and continuing into Monday night. The best chances for
precipitation will be late Monday night.

Operational models have been keying in on a band of moderate
rainfall that may affect the region. However, there is
disagreement on when and where this will occur. The NAM shows
this band of up to half an inch of rain in a 6 hour period between
2 am and 8 am over Long Island and New York City. GFS shows a
quarter of an inch across Eastern Long Island from 8 pm to 2 am,
then pivoting into Connecticut and the Lower Hudson Valley after 2
am. The ECMWF looks like a compromise between the two, with less
in the way of precipitation.

High temperatures will be near normal, in the upper 60s and lower
70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
While there is good overall agreement amongst the global models in
taking a closed upper low northeast of the area Tue night with its
associated sfc low passing east of LI, difference arise later in the
week with short wave energy rounding the top of the building upper
ridge across the eastern half of the conus. Anomalously warm heights
aloft will feature the westward expansion of the the sub-tropical
ridge into the eastern third of the country. This all points toward
an unseasonably warm, and increasingly humid air mass toward the
end of the week. The one caveat here is the aforementioned short
wave energy riding over top the ridge Thu night into Fri morning.
The 12Z guidance points toward a cold frontal passage Thu night
into Fri. Differences arise with how far south it gets and how
quickly the boundary returns to the north. The operational GFS and
its ensemble mean keep the boundary south of the area through the
weekend, while the ECMWF returns it north of the area Fri night.
The Global GEM never gets it south of the area. So for the time,
the forecast will ease into a solution of dropping the boundary to
the south but quickly returning it north on Friday. However,
should the other global guidance come around to the GFS, then a
cooler forecast will be in store with an easterly flow
undercutting the warm air aloft. While we are looking for
unseasonably warm conditions Wed-Sun, temps have been nudged down
several degrees Fri into Sat. The warmest conditions still remain
across the interior with highs in the lower 80s and the 70s at the
coast.

As for rainfall, the best chance will be Tue with a good chance of
showers on the west side of the upper low. There is the potential
for some embedded thunderstorms during the afternoon hours. Rainfall
amounts with this activity could be up to a few tenths of an inch
with isolated higher amounts in any embedded stronger convection.
It becomes much more sketchy at the end of the week with ridging
aloft and likely capping. The GFS suggests the potential for an MCS
at the southern edge of the westerlies The night into Fri with the
frontal boundary serving as a lift source. It is much too early at
this time to resolve such a feature but to note the potential with
the synoptic scale setup.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Weak high pres remains over the area as low pres remains nearly
stationary off the Delmarva into Tue.

A lot of variability in the flow thru the taf period. Nearly calm
this mrng then ne flow attempts to develop. Sea breeze flow then
expected to take over by early aftn. Wind direction will become
vrb tngt as the sea breeze circulation weakens.

Mainly vfr...however some areas of br will likely result in
pockets of mvfr or lower this mrng. Most favorable areas away from
the city arpts.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z Tuesday through Friday...
.Late Monday night...mvfr or lower in -ra.
.Tuesday...period of mvfr in -shra.
.Wednesday-Thursday...vfr.
.Thursday night...low chc of mvfr -shra.
.Friday...mvfr possible in tstms.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds will remain below SCA criteria, with ocean seas running 5 to
6 feet. Seas remain at SCA levels overnight and possibly into
early Monday morning. The SCA continues.

For Tuesday afternoon into the evening, 5 ft seas could briefly
impact the eastern ocean waters as another low passes to the east.
Winds and seas will subside Tue night into Wed with high pressure
building across the waters.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Between a quarter and a third of an inch of rain is forecast
through Monday night. This should have little if any impact.
An additional few tenths of an inch is possible during the day
Tuesday, with locally higher amounts possible in any embedded
stronger convection.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for
     ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JP/DW
NEAR TERM...JP/DW
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...JP/DW
HYDROLOGY...JP/DW




000
FXUS61 KOKX 230433
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1233 AM EDT MON MAY 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Weakening low pressure remains nearly stationary near Nova Scotia
overnight as another low develops off the mid Atlantic coast.
This low will approach the region from the south on Monday,
passing to the south and east on Tuesday. High pressure will then
briefly follow for Wednesday and Thursday with a cold front
slipping south of the area Thursday night. The front returns north
as a warm front on Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Clearing continues overnight with weak subsidence with mainly high
clouds across the region. low pressure remains, and weakens, near
Nova Scotia overnight.

With light winds and clearing skies temperatures across outlying
areas have fallen and lowered temperatures a couple of degrees
overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
There will be a chance for showers once again north and west of
New York City on Monday, with the upper level low still in the
vicinity. Another coastal low will develop off the Mid-Atlantic
coast and track northeast through Monday night. This will allow
the chance for showers to overspread the region into the afternoon
and continuing into Monday night. The best chances for
precipitation will be late Monday night.

Operational models have been keying in on a band of moderate
rainfall that may affect the region. However, there is
disagreement on when and where this will occur. The NAM shows
this band of up to half an inch of rain in a 6 hour period between
2 am and 8 am over Long Island and New York City. GFS shows a
quarter of an inch across Eastern Long Island from 8 pm to 2 am,
then pivoting into Connecticut and the Lower Hudson Valley after 2
am. The ECMWF looks like a compromise between the two, with less
in the way of precipitation.

High temperatures will be near normal, in the upper 60s and lower
70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
While there is good overall agreement amongst the global models in
taking a closed upper low northeast of the area Tue night with its
associated sfc low passing east of LI, difference arise later in the
week with short wave energy rounding the top of the building upper
ridge across the eastern half of the conus. Anomalously warm heights
aloft will feature the westward expansion of the the sub-tropical
ridge into the eastern third of the country. This all points toward
an unseasonably warm, and increasingly humid air mass toward the
end of the week. The one caveat here is the aforementioned short
wave energy riding over top the ridge Thu night into Fri morning.
The 12Z guidance points toward a cold frontal passage Thu night
into Fri. Differences arise with how far south it gets and how
quickly the boundary returns to the north. The operational GFS and
its ensemble mean keep the boundary south of the area through the
weekend, while the ECMWF returns it north of the area Fri night.
The Global GEM never gets it south of the area. So for the time,
the forecast will ease into a solution of dropping the boundary to
the south but quickly returning it north on Friday. However,
should the other global guidance come around to the GFS, then a
cooler forecast will be in store with an easterly flow
undercutting the warm air aloft. While we are looking for
unseasonably warm conditions Wed-Sun, temps have been nudged down
several degrees Fri into Sat. The warmest conditions still remain
across the interior with highs in the lower 80s and the 70s at the
coast.

As for rainfall, the best chance will be Tue with a good chance of
showers on the west side of the upper low. There is the potential
for some embedded thunderstorms during the afternoon hours. Rainfall
amounts with this activity could be up to a few tenths of an inch
with isolated higher amounts in any embedded stronger convection.
It becomes much more sketchy at the end of the week with ridging
aloft and likely capping. The GFS suggests the potential for an MCS
at the southern edge of the westerlies The night into Fri with the
frontal boundary serving as a lift source. It is much too early at
this time to resolve such a feature but to note the potential with
the synoptic scale setup.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Low pressure well to the east departs and weakens into tonight.
Another low will approach from the south Monday.

VFR conditions much of tonight. with light/variable winds becoming
NW late. Could see some brief MVFR vsby at some outlying
terminals close to daybreak.

N winds around 5 kt after daybreak should veer NE 5-10 kt and
then ENE through the morning, then give way to afternoon sea
breezes. Sea breeze onset should be at least 1 hour earlier than
that of today, maybe 2 hours, and direction may initially be SE
and then veer S.

A brief mid to late shower or tstm possible at KSWF where there
will be some instability.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z Tuesday through Friday...
.Monday night-Tuesday...Good chance MVFR or lower conditions in
any showers and possible tstms.
.Wednesday-Thursday...VFR.
.Thursday night-Friday...MVFR or lower conditions possible in
scattered showers/thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds will remain below SCA criteria, with ocean seas running 5 to
6 feet. Seas remain at SCA levels overnight and possibly into
early Monday morning. The SCA continues.

For Tuesday afternoon into the evening, 5 ft seas could briefly
impact the eastern ocean waters as another low passes to the east.
Winds and seas will subside Tue night into Wed with high pressure
building across the waters.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Between a quarter and a third of an inch of rain is forecast
through Monday night. This should have little if any impact.
An additional few tenths of an inch is possible during the day
Tuesday, with locally higher amounts possible in any embedded
stronger convection.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for
     ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KBOX 222343
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
743 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry tonight into the early half of Monday, before a second area
of low pressure moves up the coast and ushers in wet weather
through Tuesday. A significant warmup will occur Wednesday,
continuing into next weekend. Scattered showers or thunderstorms
are possible from Thursday into next weekend, especially over
western sections.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Main axis of showers expected to stay well west of southern new
England. Did note a lone shower in central Hampshire county moving
southwest. This shower may impact western Hampden county before
8:30 pm. With sunset fast approaching, not expecting more showers
to develop.

Brought the forecast back in line with observed trends, especially
sky cover.

Previous discussion...

An overall quiet forecast period. Initial coastal low lifts NE into
SE Canada as a secondary coastal low emerges off the Mid-Atlantic in
response to N stream energy diving S, cutting off from the main mid-
latitude flow.

Between the two systems looking at scattered to broken cloud decks
with light N winds albeit a bit more brisk over E/SE coastal MA with
the possibility of some drizzle or light showery weather per cold
conveyor belt motions. Dry W with isentropic downsloping NW to SE.
Lows milder E/SE with anticipated socked in conditions, around the
50 degree mark, while mid to upper 40s with partial clearing W.

Otherwise, a high risk of rip currents continues into this evening
along the eastern portions of Cape Cod and Nantucket, as well as
along the south coast, from Bristol County, MA to Westerly, RI.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Monday...

A return of wet weather. Coastal low off the Mid-Atlantic gets wound
up and pulled back, occluding towards the N and W beneath the mid to
upper level low. Will see an increase in wet weather and clouds as a
result of several factors.

The first per a trowaling confluence of conveyor belts as mid-level
vortex energy parent to the mid to upper level low pushes N. Parent
forcing on the increase along with an isallobaric NE wind results in
high-end chance to likely PoPs late.

The second per vortex energy stretched and inverted N of the low
maintaining low level confluence across Upstate NY and PA E into the
CT River Valley. Cooler air aloft yielding steeper lapse rates in an
environment of favorable lift, with any diurnal forcing especially
with sunshine we would likely see some shower activity emerge. Focus
especially along the high terrain with orographic influences upon
convergent flow.

The likely window of partial clearing more likely N and W just prior
to increasing cloud and PoP chances late should allow highs to warm
into the low to mid 70s. Cooler E and SE with increasing NE onshore
flow. Will follow closely to ensemble probabilities with regards
to PoP chances in such a chaotic pattern that has been poorly
handled by a majority of the forecast guidance.

Monday Night...

Surface low continues to back and occlude beneath the cutoff mid to
upper level low pulling N and across S New England in response. In
its mature to dying phase conveyor belt motions undergo strong
forcing across much of S New England within the comma head of the
low itself. This prior to drier air wrapping into and cutting off
the system.

Likely PoPs warranted early, perhaps diminishing into morning. Will
need to monitor SE New England for the possibility of an elevated
convective setup. Weak instability but strong shear, convective
indicies exceeding respective thresholds, can not rule out a rumble
of thunder for SE communities but have low confidence with regards
to a severe threat with any convection.

Abundance of clouds and moisture with a continued E/NE flow, looking
at lows in the low to mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Highlights...

 * Good chance of showers Tuesday
 * Significantly warmer Wednesday into next weekend
 * Scattered showers and thunderstorms Thursday into next weekend,
   especially over western sections.

Overview and Model Preferences...

Very good agreement in the latest guidance suite in moving a
persistent upper low toward the Maritimes by late Wednesday
afternoon. Strong ridging over the north Atlantic edges west over
the southeast USA late this week. This will mean more summer-like
conditions late this week into next weekend. With the increasing
heat and humidity, also expecting the possibility for diurnal
showers and thunderstorms, each day.

Subtle, but significant, differences in the details Friday into
next weekend. The predictability of these details is rather low,
so will favor a consensus approach, for now.

Details...

Tuesday...

Core of the upper level cold pool moves over southern New England.
Still differences in the specific low tracks among the latest
models, so confidence is not high on this particular aspect, yet.
Guidance does agree on a low pressure passing close enough to
southern New England where we would need at least a chance for
some showers in the forecast.

We will need to keep an eye on the possibility of some
thunderstorms, too. While the cold pool aloft will mean an
unstable atmosphere, the northeast onshore flow should limit the
available energy to put into thunderstorm updrafts.

Expecting below normal temperatures due to abundant clouds and
scattered showers.

Wednesday...

Brief ridge of high pressure to our south takes over, leading to
downslope air flow, drier conditions, and more summer-like
temperatures away from the coast. There could be seabreezes, but
it appears the synoptic flow could be just strong enough to
prevent lower temperatures along parts of the MA east coast. Cape
Cod and the islands, as well as Cape Ann, however, will likely
remain as cool as the south coast of New England, where southwest
winds should prevail.

Thursday through Sunday...

This still appears to be a prolonged period of summer-like heat
and humidity, especially away from the coasts. The questions to
be answered during this portion of the forecast are: where will a
frontal boundary be between Thursday and Friday, and how quickly
will it move? A scenario can be seen where we wind up on the cold
side Friday, which would mean lower temperatures and a greater
risk for showers.

Diurnal showers, and perhaps some thunderstorms, are expected
through most of this period. The position of this front will have
a large impact on chances, and is one of the more uncertain
aspects of this forecast. Will keep a chance for showers in the
forecast until this critical detail can be better worked out.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Monday Night/...

Tonight...Moderate Confidence.

Mainly VFR across southern New England this evening. With onshore
northeast flow, cannot rule a return to local IFR in stratus,
drizzle and/or fog. As winds shift more north than northeast, the
risk for IFR conditions will decrease, except across the outer
Cape and Nantucket.

Monday...Moderate Confidence.

Low-end VFR cigs with MVFR across E/SE coastal terminals. Will
heighten the risk of IFR to moderate keeping it confined to SE
coastal terminals. -SHRA developing late, focus along the S coast
as well as the N/W interior out into the CT River Valley. NE flow
prevailing with gusts up to 20 kts especially over the E/SE coast.

Monday Night...Moderate Confidence.

-RA likely for all terminals. Deteriorating conditions into the
evening hours and prevailing overnight. Mix of MVFR down to LIFR
with NE winds prevailing, gusts upwards of 20 kts especially across
the E/SE coastal terminals. A final note, there is a low risk of
TSRA for SE coastal terminals.

KBOS TAF...Pulling out MVFR and keeping cigs VFR with the low-end
of the spectrum SCT per webcams shortly before 18z. Not much issue
in thinking with landing on the 4`s if that be the case with NE
winds prevailing, gusts up to 15 kts.

KBDL TAF...Becoming SCT and dry and such trends should continue
into the overnight hours. N winds with gusts limited to 15 kts.
Will see a return of low cigs and wet weather late Monday with a
continued downward trend into Monday night.

Outlook /Tuesday through Friday/...

Tuesday...Moderate Confidence.

Scattered showers will continue across the area with NE flow. An
isolated TSRA is also possible. This also suggests low clouds.
Therefore, periods of MVFR/IFR are likely, but it`s possible that
occasional VFR will occur, especially across the interior.

Wednesday...High Confidence. Mainly VFR.

Thursday...Moderate Confidence. Mainly VFR. Scattered MVFR in
scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly west of KLWM-KORH-KIJD.

Friday...Moderate Confidence. Mainly VFR. Scattered MVFR in
scattered showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Tonight...High confidence.

Coastal low lifts into SE Canada behind which NE winds diminish.
Seas remain 5 to 9 feet resulting in small craft advisories on the
outer waters.

Monday into Monday Night...Moderate confidence.

Second coastal low moves up the coast through the day with impacts
towards late. Into evening will see increasing areal coverage of
rain along with NE winds. Restrictions to visibility with the wet
weather along with gusts up to 20 kts. Seas maintain 5 to 7 feet.
Small craft advisories continue.

Outlook /Tuesday through Friday/...

Tuesday...Moderate Confidence.

Secondary low lingers with subsequent wind and S swell. Seas may
reach 7 to 8 feet south of Nantucket. Small craft advisories may
need to continue for some waters.

Wednesday into Friday...High Confidence.

High pressure briefly builds over the waters. Mainly quiet
boating weather is expected with winds and seas below Small Craft
Advisory levels.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...High Rip Current Risk until 10 PM EDT this evening for MAZ020-
     022-024.
RI...High Rip Current Risk until 10 PM EDT this evening for
     RIZ006>008.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Monday for ANZ231-251.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Monday for ANZ235-237.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ250-254-255.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Belk/Sipprell
NEAR TERM...Belk/Sipprell
SHORT TERM...Sipprell
LONG TERM...Belk
AVIATION...Belk/Sipprell
MARINE...Belk/Sipprell




000
FXUS61 KALY 222328
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
728 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will move east of Cape Cod tonight. High pressure
will briefly build in from the Great Lakes Region and Midwest
tonight into early Monday. Low pressure tracking close to southern
New England Monday night into Tuesday will bring showers to
locations from the Capital Region south and east.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
As of 725 PM EDT, a small cluster of showers and isolated
thunderstorms continues to move southwest across the west/central
Mohawk Valley, with additional showers and isolated thunderstorms
across the western Adirondacks. Elsewhere, some weakening light
showers are across portions of the upper Hudson Valley region, and
also portions of the eastern Catskills.

Some of the taller showers/thunderstorms may still produce
isolated wind gusts up to 35 mph, and pea size hail for another
1-2 hours.

The showers and thunderstorms will gradually weaken as the sun
lowers and sets.

Otherwise, one upper impulse and surface low is exiting east of
Cape Cod. Stronger upper low forming in the Appalachians and mid
Atlantic trending east and south. Enough moisture and instability
along the northwest periphery of the moisture field of the
developing upper low which allowed some scattered showers and
thunderstorms from VT into central NY...moving west and southwest
around the periphery of the developing upper low.

Some weak upper level and low level ridging should allow for some
breaks in the clouds to develop overnight as the showers taper off
before midnight. There will be some intermittent breaks in the
clouds over central and northern areas tonight to the
Berkshires....maybe even some breaks into the mid Hudson valley
and NW CT depending on how far south the upper low begins to form
tonight. So...scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms this
evening diminishing in coverage through the evening. Lows in the
mid 40s to lower 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Periods of sun and clouds Monday as the upper low forms well to
our south...but with moisture in place along the northwestern
periphery...perhaps a bit more cloud cover in the mid Hudson
Valley and NW CT than other areas. More coverage of clouds and
some isolated to scattered showers developing Monday afternoon
once the upper low begins to track north. Highs Monday in the mid
to upper 70s...lower 70s higher terrain.

Upper low slowly tracks northeast off the mid Atlantic coast
Monday night and Tuesday...crossing in the vicinity of Cape Cod
Tuesday afternoon and night. As the northwestern periphery of the
moisture associated with the upper low tracks through eastern NY
and western New England Monday night and Tuesday...scattered
showers with the best coverage into the mid Hudson Valley...NW
CT...the Berkshires and southern VT. Highs Tuesday with the rain
and clouds in the upper 60s to lower 70s...approaching mid 70s
northern areas where cloud and rain coverage the least.

Rain moves out Tuesday evening with partial clearing later at
night...then increasing sunshine Wednesday. Although...a weak cold
front associated with a small upper impulse tracking southeast
out of Canada could bring some isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms mainly to western and northern areas by Wednesday
afternoon. Highs Wednesday in the upper 70s to lower 80s...some
mid 70s higher elevations.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A more late spring/summer like pattern should develop during the
long term period. However, a back door cold front is expected to
settle southward Wednesday night/early Thursday, before slowly
retreating back north and east Friday into Saturday. There remains
uncertainty as to how quickly, and how far north and east the front
lifts back, as any delay would keep cloudier/cooler conditions
across the region into at least a portion of next weekend, while a
quicker northward retreat would allow very warm and humid air to
pour into the region.

At this time, have sided close to a blend of 12Z/22 GFS, GEFS mean
and ECMWF.

So, for Wednesday night into Thursday, have some slight chances for
showers/thunder for Wed evening, especially across northern areas,
then generally dry for Thursday as the front settles to our south
and shortwave ridging translates east across the region. Then,
chances for showers and thunderstorms increase for Thursday night-
Friday as the front lifts northward as a warm front. There is a
possibility that a weak wave of low pressure ripples east along the
warm front, which could provide more widespread
showers/thunderstorms at some point late Thursday night or Friday.

Showers/thunderstorms are indicated as becoming more
isolated/scattered, and focused more on diurnal effects for Saturday
and Sunday, assuming the front lifts to our north. However, if it is
slower progressing north, then more persistent showers and
thunderstorms could affect portions of the region through next
weekend.

As for temperatures, expect a mild Wednesday night/Thursday morning,
with mainly 50s. For Thursday, expect max temps to reach the mid 70s
to lower 80s, warmest in valley areas. Thursday night/Friday morning
min temps may be a bit milder due to clouds, with mid 50s to lower
60s expected.

Trickier temperature forecast for Friday max temps, as the front
lifts northward, and clouds/showers and thunderstorms may occur.
Have generally indicated 70s for most areas, with some 60s across
higher terrain of the Adirondacks and southern VT.

For Friday night through Sunday, more humid conditions along with
warmer temperatures are indicated, assuming the front lifts to our
north. Expect overnight low temperatures in the mid 50s to mid 60s,
with daytime high temperatures mainly in the lower/mid 80s in
valleys, and 75-80 across higher terrain. Again, ultimately these
temperatures will depend on the northward progression of the front.
If the front lifts northward sooner, even warmer temperatures could
occur.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
An developing upper level low will drift south of the region
tonight and Monday, before tracking back north northeast toward
southern New England on Tuesday.

Some showers may persist this evening at KGFL until around
03Z/Mon, otherwise little if any additional chances for showers
at the TAF sites overnight.

So, generally tranquil conditions expected tonight, as the upper
level low shifts well south of the region. At least BKN mid level
clouds expected to persist through much of the night, although
some clearing may occur by around 08Z or 09Z Sunday. If a few
hours of clearing happens before sunrise, some fog development
will be possible especially at KPSF/KGFL. Will mention MVFR
conditions at these two terminals starting 09Z, but IFR is
possible if persistent fog can develop. Any fog should dissipate
by 12Z, with VFR conditions returning with mainly just scattered
mid level clouds expected for Monday.

Winds will be north-northeast around 5-8 kt this evening,
becoming near calm tonight. North to northeast winds will increase
Monday morning to 5-10 kt, with some gusts of 15-20 kt possible
Monday afternoon.

Outlook...

Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Low pressure will move east of Cape Cod tonight. High pressure
will briefly build in from the Great Lakes Region and Midwest
tonight into early Monday. Low pressure tracking close to southern
New England Monday night into Tuesday will bring showers to
locations from the Capital Region south and east.

Expecting mainly dry weather Monday with scattered showers
developing late Monday afternoon. Minimum RH values Monday
afternoon are expected to be 35 to 50 percent. Better coverage of
showers is expected Tuesday with minimum RH values Tuesday
afternoon mainly in the 55 to 75 percent range.

The winds are expected to be northwest to northeast at 5 to 10 mph
today...and light to calm tonight...and north to northeast at less
than 10 mph for Tuesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydrologic issues are anticipated through at least
the next 5 days ending Thursday.

Unsettled weather is expected with some isolated to scattered showers
tonight with better coverage of showers Tuesday. At this time
amounts of two tenths of an inch to half an inch are expected
through Tuesday.

Overall...this rainfall will have little impact on area rivers...
streams...and reservoirs. Most river levels will remain fairly
steady through the weekend and into the middle of next week.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...KL/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS




000
FXUS61 KBOX 222039
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
439 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry tonight into the early half of Monday, before a second area
of low pressure moves up the coast and ushers in wet weather
through Tuesday. A significant warmup will occur Wednesday,
continuing into next weekend. Scattered showers or thunderstorms
are possible from Thursday into next weekend, especially over
western sections.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Rest of today...

Much of the area will remain dry beneath sinking air behind the
departing coastal low into SE Canada. As observed via radar trends
most if not all of the showery weather has concluded. Via satellite
a lot of the low cloud decks have eroded with only some mid to upper
level cloud decks lingering along the leading edge of mid-level
vortex energy and remnant S moist flow.

So only concern towards evening is to the N/W. Can not rule out
that a combination of diurnal forcing along the leading edge of
some mid level vortex energy around the broader trough pattern in
an environment of steep lapse rates up to H7 yields shower and
even possibly thunderstorm activity into the W CT River Valley.
But will hold the activity just N/W outside of our forecast area.
High terrain will be an influencing factor so can not rule out
some development to the immediate N/W over the Berkshires. Just
something to watch out for towards sunset. Chance PoPs accordingly.

Scattered to broken cloud decks continuing with temperatures
topping out around the mid to upper 60s.


Tonight...

An overall quiet forecast period. Initial coastal low lifts NE into
SE Canada as a secondary coastal low emerges off the Mid-Atlantic in
response to N stream energy diving S, cutting off from the main mid-
latitude flow.

Between the two systems looking at scattered to broken cloud decks
with light N winds albeit a bit more brisk over E/SE coastal MA with
the possibility of some drizzle or light showery weather per cold
conveyor belt motions. Dry W with isentropic downsloping NW to SE.
Lows milder E/SE with anticipated socked in conditions, around the
50 degree mark, while mid to upper 40s with partial clearing W.

Otherwise, a high risk of rip currents continues into this evening
along the eastern portions of Cape Cod and Nantucket, as well as
along the south coast, from Bristol County, MA to Westerly, RI.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Monday...

A return of wet weather. Coastal low off the Mid-Atlantic gets wound
up and pulled back, occluding towards the N and W beneath the mid to
upper level low. Will see an increase in wet weather and clouds as a
result of several factors.

The first per a trowaling confluence of conveyor belts as mid-level
vortex energy parent to the mid to upper level low pushes N. Parent
forcing on the increase along with an isallobaric NE wind results in
high-end chance to likely PoPs late.

The second per vortex energy stretched and inverted N of the low
maintaining low level confluence across Upstate NY and PA E into the
CT River Valley. Cooler air aloft yielding steeper lapse rates in an
environment of favorable lift, with any diurnal forcing especially
with sunshine we would likely see some shower activity emerge. Focus
especially along the high terrain with orographic influences upon
convergent flow.

The likely window of partial clearing more likely N and W just prior
to increasing cloud and PoP chances late should allow highs to warm
into the low to mid 70s. Cooler E and SE with increasing NE onshore
flow. Will follow closely to ensemble probabilities with regards
to PoP chances in such a chaotic pattern that has been poorly
handled by a majority of the forecast guidance.

Monday Night...

Surface low continues to back and occlude beneath the cutoff mid to
upper level low pulling N and across S New England in response. In
its mature to dying phase conveyor belt motions undergo strong
forcing across much of S New England within the comma head of the
low itself. This prior to drier air wrapping into and cutting off
the system.

Likely PoPs warranted early, perhaps diminishing into morning. Will
need to monitor SE New England for the possibility of an elevated
convective setup. Weak instability but strong shear, convective
indicies exceeding respective thresholds, can not rule out a rumble
of thunder for SE communities but have low confidence with regards
to a severe threat with any convection.

Abundance of clouds and moisture with a continued E/NE flow, looking
at lows in the low to mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Highlights...

 * Good chance of showers Tuesday
 * Significantly warmer Wednesday into next weekend
 * Scattered showers and thunderstorms Thursday into next weekend,
   especially over western sections.

Overview and Model Preferences...

Very good agreement in the latest guidance suite in moving a
persistent upper low toward the Maritimes by late Wednesday
afternoon. Strong ridging over the north Atlantic edges west over
the southeast USA late this week. This will mean more summer-like
conditions late this week into next weekend. With the increasing
heat and humidity, also expecting the possibility for diurnal
showers and thunderstorms, each day.

Subtle, but significant, differences in the details Friday into
next weekend. The predictability of these details is rather low,
so will favor a consensus approach, for now.

Details...

Tuesday...

Core of the upper level cold pool moves over southern New England.
Still differences in the specific low tracks among the latest
models, so confidence is not high on this particular aspect, yet.
Guidance does agree on a low pressure passing close enough to
southern New England where we would need at least a chance for
some showers in the forecast.

We will need to keep an eye on the possibility of some
thunderstorms, too. While the cold pool aloft will mean an
unstable atmosphere, the northeast onshore flow should limit the
available energy to put into thunderstorm updrafts.

Expecting below normal temperatures due to abundant clouds and
scattered showers.

Wednesday...

Brief ridge of high pressure to our south takes over, leading to
downslope air flow, drier conditions, and more summer-like
temperatures away from the coast. There could be seabreezes, but
it appears the synoptic flow could be just strong enough to
prevent lower temperatures along parts of the MA east coast. Cape
Cod and the islands, as well as Cape Ann, however, will likely
remain as cool as the south coast of New England, where southwest
winds should prevail.

Thursday through Sunday...

This still appears to be a prolonged period of summer-like heat
and humidity, especially away from the coasts. The questions to
be answered during this portion of the forecast are: where will a
frontal boundary be between Thursday and Friday, and how quickly
will it move? A scenario can be seen where we wind up on the cold
side Friday, which would mean lower temperatures and a greater
risk for showers.

Diurnal showers, and perhaps some thunderstorms, are expected
through most of this period. The position of this front will have
a large impact on chances, and is one of the more uncertain
aspects of this forecast. Will keep a chance for showers in the
forecast until this critical detail can be better worked out.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Monday Night/...

18z update...

Today and Tonight...High Confidence.

Trying to keep optimistic but surprised as how IFR is lingering
across SE coastal terminals. May remain the norm with NE winds
gusting around 25 kts through the overnight period with the
additional threat of DZ/-RA. Otherwise all other terminals VFR
with light N/NE winds. Low-end VFR cigs. Lesser confidence MVFR.
Also watching N/W terminals only for this afternoon as to the
possibility of SCT SHRA and low risk TSRA.

Monday...Moderate Confidence.

Low-end VFR cigs with MVFR across E/SE coastal terminals. Will
heighten the risk of IFR to moderate keeping it confined to SE
coastal terminals. -SHRA developing late, focus along the S coast
as well as the N/W interior out into the CT River Valley. NE flow
prevailing with gusts up to 20 kts especially over the E/SE coast.

Monday Night...Moderate Confidence.

-RA likely for all terminals. Deteriorating conditions into the
evening hours and prevailing overnight. Mix of MVFR down to LIFR
with NE winds prevailing, gusts upwards of 20 kts especially across
the E/SE coastal terminals. A final note, there is a low risk of
TSRA for SE coastal terminals.

KBOS TAF...Pulling out MVFR and keeping cigs VFR with the low-end
of the spectrum SCT per webcams shortly before 18z. Not much issue
in thinking with landing on the 4`s if that be the case with NE
winds prevailing, gusts up to 15 kts.

KBDL TAF...Becoming SCT and dry and such trends should continue
into the overnight hours. N winds with gusts limited to 15 kts.
Will see a return of low cigs and wet weather late Monday with a
continued downward trend into Monday night.

Outlook /Tuesday through Friday/...

Tuesday...Moderate Confidence.

Scattered showers will continue across the area with NE flow. An
isolated TSRA is also possible. This also suggests low clouds.
Therefore, periods of MVFR/IFR are likely, but it`s possible that
occasional VFR will occur, especially across the interior.

Wednesday...High Confidence. Mainly VFR.

Thursday...Moderate Confidence. Mainly VFR. Scattered MVFR in
scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly west of KLWM-KORH-KIJD.

Friday...Moderate Confidence. Mainly VFR. Scattered MVFR in
scattered showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

3 pm update...

Tonight...High confidence.

Coastal low lifts into SE Canada behind which NE winds diminish.
Seas remain 5 to 9 feet resulting in small craft advisories on the
outer waters.

Monday into Monday Night...Moderate confidence.

Second coastal low moves up the coast through the day with impacts
towards late. Into evening will see increasing areal coverage of
rain along with NE winds. Restrictions to visibility with the wet
weather along with gusts up to 20 kts. Seas maintain 5 to 7 feet.
Small craft advisories continue.

Outlook /Tuesday through Friday/...

Tuesday...Moderate Confidence.

Secondary low lingers with subsequent wind and S swell. Seas may
reach 7 to 8 feet south of Nantucket. Small craft advisories may
need to continue for some waters.

Wednesday into Friday...High Confidence.

High pressure briefly builds over the waters. Mainly quiet
boating weather is expected with winds and seas below Small Craft
Advisory levels.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...High Rip Current Risk until 10 PM EDT this evening for MAZ020-
     022-024.
RI...High Rip Current Risk until 10 PM EDT this evening for
     RIZ006>008.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 2 PM EDT Monday
     for ANZ231-251.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Monday for ANZ235-237.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ250-254-255.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Belk/Sipprell
NEAR TERM...Sipprell
SHORT TERM...Sipprell
LONG TERM...Belk
AVIATION...Belk/Sipprell
MARINE...Belk/Sipprell




000
FXUS61 KALY 222024
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
424 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will move east of Cape Cod tonight. High pressure
will briefly build in from the Great Lakes Region and Midwest
tonight into early Monday. Low pressure tracking close to southern
New England Monday night into Tuesday will bring showers to
locations from the Capital Region south and east.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
One upper impulse and surface low exiting east of Cape Cod.
Stronger upper low forming in the Appalachians and mid Atlantic
trending east and south. Enough moisture and instability along the
northwest periphery of the moisture field of the developing upper
low that there are some scattered showers and thunderstorms from
VT into central NY...moving west and southwest around the
periphery of the developing upper low.

Some weak upper level and low level ridging allowing for some
break in the clouds between the showers and thunderstorms...and
there will be some intermittent breaks in the clouds over central
and northern areas tonight to the Berkshires....maybe even some
breaks into the mid Hudson valley and NW CT depending on how far
south the upper low begins to form tonight. So...scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms this evening diminishing in coverage
through the evening. Lows in the mid 40s to lower 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Periods of sun and clouds Monday as the upper low forms well to
our south...but with moisture in place along the northwestern
periphery...perhaps a bit more cloud cover in the mid Hudson
Valley and NW CT than other areas. More coverage of clouds and
some isolated to scattered showers developing Monday afternoon
once the upper low begins to track north. Highs Monday in the mid
to upper 70s...lower 70s higher terrain.

Upper low slowly tracks northeast off the mid Atlantic coast
Monday night and Tuesday...crossing in the vicinity of Cape Cod
Tuesday afternoon and night. As the northwestern periphery of the
moisture associated with the upper low tracks through eastern NY
and western New England Monday night and Tuesday...scattered
showers with the best coverage into the mid Hudson Valley...NW
CT...the Berkshires and southern VT. Highs Tuesday with the rain
and clouds in the upper 60s to lower 70s...approaching mid 70s
northern areas where cloud and rain coverage the least.

Rain moves out Tuesday evening with partial clearing later at
night...then increasing sunshine Wednesday. Although...a weak cold
front associated with a small upper impulse tracking southeast
out of Canada could bring some isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms mainly to western and northern areas by Wednesday
afternoon. Highs Wednesday in the upper 70s to lower 80s...some
mid 70s higher elevations.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A more late spring/summer like pattern should develop during the
long term period. However, a back door cold front is expected to
settle southward Wednesday night/early Thursday, before slowly
retreating back north and east Friday into Saturday. There remains
uncertainty as to how quickly, and how far north and east the front
lifts back, as any delay would keep cloudier/cooler conditions
across the region into at least a portion of next weekend, while a
quicker northward retreat would allow very warm and humid air to
pour into the region.

At this time, have sided close to a blend of 12Z/22 GFS, GEFS mean
and ECMWF.

So, for Wednesday night into Thursday, have some slight chances for
showers/thunder for Wed evening, especially across northern areas,
then generally dry for Thursday as the front settles to our south
and shortwave ridging translates east across the region. Then,
chances for showers and thunderstorms increase for Thursday night-
Friday as the front lifts northward as a warm front. There is a
possibility that a weak wave of low pressure ripples east along the
warm front, which could provide more widespread
showers/thunderstorms at some point late Thursday night or Friday.

Showers/thunderstorms are indicated as becoming more
isolated/scattered, and focused more on diurnal effects for Saturday
and Sunday, assuming the front lifts to our north. However, if it is
slower progressing north, then more persistent showers and
thunderstorms could affect portions of the region through next
weekend.

As for temperatures, expect a mild Wednesday night/Thursday morning,
with mainly 50s. For Thursday, expect max temps to reach the mid 70s
to lower 80s, warmest in valley areas. Thursday night/Friday morning
min temps may be a bit milder due to clouds, with mid 50s to lower
60s expected.

Trickier temperature forecast for Friday max temps, as the front
lifts northward, and clouds/showers and thunderstorms may occur.
Have generally indicated 70s for most areas, with some 60s across
higher terrain of the Adirondacks and southern VT.

For Friday night through Sunday, more humid conditions along with
warmer temperatures are indicated, assuming the front lifts to our
north. Expect overnight low temperatures in the mid 50s to mid 60s,
with daytime high temperatures mainly in the lower/mid 80s in
valleys, and 75-80 across higher terrain. Again, ultimately these
temperatures will depend on the northward progression of the front.
If the front lifts northward sooner, even warmer temperatures could
occur.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BKN mid level clouds persist across the region with an upper level
low centered over PA and a cold front gradually pushing southward
across the region. Scattered showers will continue, but may not
directly move across any of the terminals. So will continue to
mention VCSH into the evening hours before showers dissipate due
to loss of daytime heating.

Generally tranquil conditions expected tonight, as the upper level
low shifts well south of the region. At least BKN mid level clouds
expected to persist through much of the night, although some
clearing may occur by around 09Z or 10Z Sunday. If a few hours of
clearing happens before sunrise, so fog development will be
possible especially at KPSF/KGFL. Will mention MVFR conditions at
these two terminals starting 09Z, but IFR is possible if
persistent fog can develop. Any fog should dissipate by 12Z, with
VFR conditions returning with just scattered mid level clouds.

Winds will be north-northeast around 5-8 kt, becoming near calm
tonight.

Outlook...

Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Low pressure will move east of Cape Cod tonight. High pressure
will briefly build in from the Great Lakes Region and Midwest
tonight into early Monday. Low pressure tracking close to southern
New England Monday night into Tuesday will bring showers to
locations from the Capital Region south and east.

Expecting mainly dry weather Monday with scattered showersdeveloping
late Monday afternoon. Minimum RH values Monday afternoon are
expected to be 35 to 50 percent. Better coverage of showers is
expected Tuesday with minimum RH values Tuesday afternoon mainly
in the 55 to 75 percent range.

The winds are expected to be northwest to northeast at 5 to 10 mph
today...and light to calm tonight...and north to northeast at less
than 10 mph for Tuesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydrologic issues are anticipated through at least
the next 5 days ending Thursday.

Unsettled weather is expected with some isolated to scattered showers
tonight with better coverage of showers Tuesday. At this time
amounts of two tenths of an inch to half an inch are expected
through Tuesday.

Overall...this rainfall will have little impact on area rivers...
streams...and reservoirs. Most river levels will remain fairly
steady through the weekend and into the middle of next week.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS




000
FXUS61 KBOX 221858
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
258 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

 * Near- and Short-Term Forecast Updates only...

Dry tonight into the early-half of Monday before a second area of
low pressure moves up the coast and ushers in wet weather through
Tuesday. A significant warmup will occur Wednesday...continuing
into next weekend. Scattered showers or thunderstorms are possible
from Thursday into the weekend, especially in western sections.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...

Rest of today...

Much of the area will remain dry beneath sinking air behind the
departing coastal low into SE Canada. As observed via radar trends
most if not all of the showery weather has concluded. Via satellite
a lot of the low cloud decks have eroded with only some mid to upper
level cloud decks lingering along the leading edge of mid-level
vortex energy and remnant S moist flow.

So only concern towards evening is to the N/W. Can not rule out
that a combination of diurnal forcing along the leading edge of
some mid level vortex energy around the broader trough pattern in
an environment of steep lapse rates up to H7 yields shower and
even possibly thunderstorm activity into the W CT River Valley.
But will hold the activity just N/W outside of our forecast area.
High terrain will be an influencing factor so can not rule out
some development to the immediate N/W over the Berkshires. Just
something to watch out for towards sunset. Chance PoPs accordingly.

Scattered to broken cloud decks continuing with temperatures
topping out around the mid to upper 60s.


Tonight...

An overall quiet forecast period. Initial coastal low lifts NE into
SE Canada as a secondary coastal low emerges off the Mid-Atlantic in
response to N stream energy diving S, cutting off from the main mid-
latitude flow.

Between the two systems looking at scattered to broken cloud decks
with light N winds albeit a bit more brisk over E/SE coastal MA with
the possibility of some drizzle or light showery weather per cold
conveyor belt motions. Dry W with isentropic downsloping NW to SE.
Lows milder E/SE with anticipated socked in conditions, around the
50 degree mark, while mid to upper 40s with partial clearing W.

Otherwise, a high risk of rip currents continues into this evening
along the eastern portions of Cape Cod and Nantucket, as well as
along the south coast, from Bristol County, MA to Westerly, RI.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

Monday...

A return of wet weather. Coastal low off the Mid-Atlantic gets wound
up and pulled back, occluding towards the N and W beneath the mid to
upper level low. Will see an increase in wet weather and clouds as a
result of several factors.

The first per a trowaling confluence of conveyor belts as mid-level
vortex energy parent to the mid to upper level low pushes N. Parent
forcing on the increase along with an isallobaric NE wind results in
high-end chance to likely PoPs late.

The second per vortex energy stretched and inverted N of the low
maintaining low level confluence across Upstate NY and PA E into the
CT River Valley. Cooler air aloft yielding steeper lapse rates in an
environment of favorable lift, with any diurnal forcing especially
with sunshine we would likely see some shower activity emerge. Focus
especially along the high terrain with orographic influences upon
convergent flow.

The likely window of partial clearing more likely N and W just prior
to increasing cloud and PoP chances late should allow highs to warm
into the low to mid 70s. Cooler E and SE with increasing NE onshore
flow. Will follow closely to ensemble probabalistics with regards to
PoP chances in such a chaotic pattern that has been poorly handled
by a majority of the forecast guidance.

Monday Night...

Surface low continues to back and occlude beneath the cutoff mid to
upper level low pulling N and across S New England in response. In
its mature to dying phase conveyor belt motions undergo strong
forcing across much of S New England within the comma head of the
low itself. This prior to drier air wrapping into and cutting off
the system.

Likely PoPs warranted early, perhaps diminishing into morning. Will
need to monitor SE New England for the possibility of an elevated
convective setup. Weak instability but strong shear, convective
indicies exceeding respective thresholds, can not rule out a rumble
of thunder for SE communities but have low confidence with regards
to a severe threat with any convection.

Abundance of clouds and moisture with a continued E/NE flow, looking
at lows in the low to mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

Highlights...

 * Good chance of showers Tuesday
 * Significantly warmer Wednesday into next weekend
 * Scattered showers and thunderstorms Thursday into the weekend,
   especially in western sections.

Overview and Model Preferences...

Upper level low pressure passes northeast from the Mid-Atlantic
coast, reaching the Gulf of Maine Tuesday night. By Thursday and
Friday, and continuing into next weekend, a strong upper level
ridge develops over the Mid- Atlantic states...extending northward
into western New England. In general, models are in good agreement
at the upper level features but differ somewhat on timing and
location of possible convection later in the week. All agree on a
major warmup to summertime levels. There will also be increasing
moisture. A warm frontal boundary could provide the focus for
scattered thunderstorms Thursday as it moves northward. Scattered
showers or thunderstorms will be possible during the afternoons
and evenings into the weekend.

Details...

Monday night into Tuesday...

Core of the upper level cold pool moves over southern New England
Mon night into Tue...with -18C at 500 mb...which is cold but not
that extreme. Models are now in better agreement on the track of
surface low pressure, which moves between outer Cape Cod and the
benchmark of 40N 70W on Tue. The ECMWF, which had it moving into
RI, is thus a bit less unstable than it was.

We will need to keep an eye on the possibility of some nocturnal
thunderstorm activity for southeastern MA and RI Mon night.
All models show a rapid influx of unstable air into southeastern
sections between midnight and daybreak Tue. Total Totals
Indices reach 55 and there is an indication of very unstable lapse
rates of 7C from 700-500 mb. 0-6 km bulk shear values increase to
45-55 kts from the south-southeast at that time, too. However,
with cool northeast surface flow, there is no Convective Available
Potential Energy (CAPE). This is not the usual situation to
expect a chance of thunderstorms, but we have veering of wind
with height (WAA) and increasing speeds with height... so, could
see some organized, but scattered and elevated thunderstorms,
especially RI and southeast MA late Mon night.

Scattered showers or an isolated thunderstorm will gradually move
away by Tue evening. Highs Tue will hold in the 65 to 70 range due
to cloud cover and scattered showers.

Wednesday...

Brief ridge of high pressure to our south takes over, leading to
downslope air flow, drier conditions, and more summer-like
temperatures with highs in the lower 80s away from the coast.
There could be sea breezes, but it appears the synoptic flow
could be just strong enough to prevent lower temperatures along
parts of the MA east coast. Cape Cod and the islands, as well as
Cape Ann, however, will likely hold in the upper 60s to lower
70s.

Thursday through Saturday...

On Thursday, 925 temps warm to +21C, so am forecasting mid 80s in
the CT valley and 80-85 elsewhere, cooler at the coast. A warm
front extending eastward from low pressure in western NY may
provide the focus for scattered showers and thunderstorms Thu
afternoon and evening. The GFS shows an axis of 36 K Index,
indicating a lot of moisture and instability, extending eastward
along the MA/CT/RI border by 00z. ECMWF, however, keeps it all to
our west. So will go with chance PoPs for now.

Warm weather with highs in the 80s are expected Friday and
Saturday with a front mainly north of the area. Diurnally-driven
showers and thunderstorms are possible both days, especially
across the western half of southern New England.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Monday Night/...

18z update...

Today and Tonight...High Confidence.

Trying to keep optimistic but surprised as how IFR is lingering
across SE coastal terminals. May remain the norm with NE winds
gusting around 25 kts through the overnight period with the
additional threat of DZ/-RA. Otherwise all other terminals VFR
with light N/NE winds. Low-end VFR cigs. Lesser confidence MVFR.
Also watching N/W terminals only for this afternoon as to the
possibility of SCT SHRA and low risk TSRA.

Monday...Moderate Confidence.

Low-end VFR cigs with MVFR across E/SE coastal terminals. Will
heighten the risk of IFR to moderate keeping it confined to SE
coastal terminals. -SHRA developing late, focus along the S coast
as well as the N/W interior out into the CT River Valley. NE flow
prevailing with gusts up to 20 kts especially over the E/SE coast.

Monday Night...Moderate Confidence.

-RA likely for all terminals. Deteriorating conditions into the
evening hours and prevailing overnight. Mix of MVFR down to LIFR
with NE winds prevailing, gusts upwards of 20 kts especially across
the E/SE coastal terminals. A final note, there is a low risk of
TSRA for SE coastal terminals.

KBOS TAF...Pulling out MVFR and keeping cigs VFR with the low-end
of the spectrum SCT per webcams shortly before 18z. Not much issue
in thinking with landing on the 4`s if that be the case with NE
winds prevailing, gusts up to 15 kts.

KBDL TAF...Becoming SCT and dry and such trends should continue
into the overnight hours. N winds with gusts limited to 15 kts.
Will see a return of low cigs and wet weather late Monday with a
continued downward trend into Monday night.

Outlook /Tuesday through Friday/...

Tuesday...Moderate Confidence.

Scattered showers will continue across the area with NE flow. An
isolated TSRA is also possible. This also suggests low clouds.
Therefore, periods of MVFR/IFR are likely, but it`s possible that
occasional VFR will occur, especially across the interior.

Wednesday...High Confidence. Mainly VFR.

Thursday...Moderate Confidence. Mainly VFR. Scattered MVFR in
scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly west of KLWM-KORH-KIJD.

&&

.MARINE...

Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

3 pm update...

Tonight...High confidence.

Coastal low lifts into SE Canada behind which NE winds diminish.
Seas remain 5 to 9 feet resulting in small craft advisories on the
outer waters.

Monday into Monday Night...Moderate confidence.

Second coastal low moves up the coast through the day with impacts
towards late. Into evening will see increasing areal coverage of
rain along with NE winds. Restrictions to visibility with the wet
weather along with gusts up to 20 kts. Seas maintain 5 to 7 feet.
Small craft advisories continue.

Outlook /Tuesday through Friday/...

Tuesday...Moderate Confidence.

Secondary low lingers with subsequent wind and S swell. Seas may
reach 7 to 8 feet south of Nantucket. Small craft advisories may
need to continue for some waters.

Wednesday into Thursday...High Confidence.

High pressure briefly builds over the waters. Mainly quiet
boating weather is expected with winds and seas below Small Craft
Advisory levels.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...None.
MA...High Rip Current Risk until 10 PM EDT this evening for MAZ020-
     022-024.
RI...High Rip Current Risk until 10 PM EDT this evening for
     RIZ006>008.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for
     ANZ231>234.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Monday for ANZ235-237.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Monday for ANZ250-251-
     254>256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Sipprell/GAF
NEAR TERM...Sipprell
SHORT TERM...Sipprell
LONG TERM...GAF
AVIATION...Sipprell/GAF
MARINE...Sipprell/GAF




000
FXUS61 KOKX 221758
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
158 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will track east of Cape Cod today...then dissipate
near Nova Scotia on Monday. Another weak low will pass near the
region on Tuesday. High pressure will then briefly follow for
Wednesday and Thursday with a frontal system approaching from the
northwest late in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Minor changes made to the forecast. Clouds are diminishing over
eastern sections of the area, with stratocumulus developing as the
mid and upper level clouds depart and the sun allows for afternoon
heating. So, decreased cloudiness somewhat out east. Best chances
for showers continues to be north and west of New York City, with
dry conditions expected for the rest of the region for the
remainder of the afternoon.

Upr low over cntrl PA continues to inch towards the cwa this
mrng. Area of light rainfall from nern NJ thru the city into CT
will slowly slide ewd as a result. The low pres sys is way out
over the Atlantic...so the pcpn this mrng will be due to positive
vorticity advection increasing with height squeezing out residual
moisture in the region. This seems to be the reason there is a bit
more lgt rain and even dz being reported across the s fork of Long
Island into Block Island...where there is some deeper bl/llvl
moisture.

The rain should become more showery in nature today with the upr
low over the ern seaboard. Best instability across the interior
and this lines up with the best mid lvl moisture...so highest
chances for rain in those areas. The ern portion of the cwa close
to the h7 low per the model progs so more mid lvl dry air.

Instability drops tngt aft sunset...so the models suggest pcpn
will rapidly dry out across the cwa. This consensus was followed
for the fcst...although any stronger activity embedded in the flow
could maintain overnight and produce a few surprise shwrs in the
area.

The statistical models were in good agreement today...so used a blend
of the MET/MAV for temps.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
Good model agreement that the main h5 low sets up near Hatteras
in the mrng...then drifts newd over the Atlantic during the day.
Mid lvl moisture is limited...but ely flow develops late which
should increase pws to over an inch per the GFS. The best chances
for rain may still though hold off in most areas til the eve
because of this initial lack of moisture. Warmer temps however
across the interior could offset the lack of moisture and provide
a net gain in instability...allowing for better rain chances
during the day. Pops highest west of the Hudson for that reason.
Temps close to guidance which again was in good agreement.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Global models continue to slow down with the progress of an upper
trough over the Eastern U.S. at the start of the week. A closed
low at the base of the trof over the Mid Atlantic states will
lift slowly north into Tue, and then northeast Tue night into Wed.
There are some discrepancies amongst the guidance with how quickly
this feature lifts out, with the operational GFS being the slowest
of the solutions. The interaction with a northern branch trof
moving across Hudson Bay appears to be the key, with the
magnitude of this feature varying. A model consensus approach
seems to be best here with the differences being rather small for
this juncture in time. Upper level ridging then expands across the
area for the second half of the week with very warm conditions to
ensue. In addition, the Sub tropical high over the western
Atlantic begins to expand west toward the East Coast at the close
of the period. This will allow for a more humid SW flow to develop
around the periphery of the high.

As for any rain, the best chance looks to be Mon eve into Tue with
the approach of the upper low. The GFS is the deepest, farthest
west, and slowest with the sfc low. Model consensus is for a
weaker and faster low, thus will keep rain chances at around 50
percent at this time. There is general agreement for up to a few
tenths of an inch across the area. There could even be some
isolated thunderstorms Tue aft/eve due to steepening lapse rates
with the upper trof overhead. It becomes much more sketchy at the
end of the week with ridging aloft and likely capping. A frontal
system approaches from the NW, but will likely struggle reaching
the area. Chance of convection at this time is low.

Near seasonable temps at the onset of the period will become
unseasonably warm from mid week into the weekend with many
locations away from the coast getting into the lower 80s, possibly
warmer.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Low pressure well to the east departs and weakens into tonight.
Another low will approach from the south Monday.

VFR conditions this afternoon and into tonight. Winds from the NE
will give way to cstl seabreezes, timing dependent on site
location.

By evening, winds lighten. Patchy fog cannot be completely ruled
out for isolated mvfr visibility, but not included in most
forecasts at this time.

Winds will be from the north/northeast Monday morning.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z Monday through Friday...
.Monday afternoon...VFR...with possible shower for KSWF.
.Monday night-Tuesday...VFR, then good chance for showers and
possible thunderstorms late Monday night and Tuesday. Sub-VFR in
any showers/thunderstorms.
.Wednesday-Thursday...VFR. Except sub-VFR in possible scattered
showers/thunderstorms Thursday night into Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
Sca conditions will develop on the ocean today and subside tngt.
Winds may be mrgnl...but seas will build to at least 5-6ft. Seas
at Hudson Canyon were at 9ft. Elsewhere...winds blw sca lvls.

5 ft seas develop again on the ocean Mon ngt as another low passes
near the waters. Winds and seas will subside Tue night into Wed
with high pressure building across the waters.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Less than a 1/4 inch of rainfall is expected today. Showers Mon
afternoon into Tue will bring potentially a few tenths at a time
where they do occur.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Monday for ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/DW
NEAR TERM...JP
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...JMC/DW
HYDROLOGY...JMC/DW




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