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000
FXUS61 KALY 311658
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1258 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A POTENT SYSTEM PASSING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES WILL DIVE TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT AND PHASE WITH ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE OFFSHORE. THE NET RESULT OF THIS WILL BE ONLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS...TURNING TO SNOW
SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. A POWERFUL STORM
OFFSHORE WILL DRIVE THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON OVER US BY
SUNDAY...ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1 PM EDT...STILL QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE OCCURRING FROM
ALBANY AND POINTS N AND W...WHILE CLOUDS ARE MORE PREVALENT ACROSS
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

THE AREA OF MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM THE
S AND E THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND EXPANDS WESTWARD...AND THE HIGH CLOUDS TO OUR
SOUTH LIFT NORTH. HOWEVER...IT SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY THROUGH
AT LEAST EARLY-MID AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA
REGION AND EASTERN MOHAWK VALLEY.

AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT DESPITE SOME INCREASING CLOUDS...NO
PRECIP IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST SUNSET.

TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 50S IN MOST VALLEYS...AND MID/UPPER
40S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE HIGHEST PEAKS
OF THE ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VT...AND CATSKILLS MAY ONLY REACH
THE LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DIVE FURTHER
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND EVENTUALLY PHASE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
SYSTEM OFFSHORE. THE DEEP MOISTURE (WITH PWATS OVER AN INCH) LOOKS
TO REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE. CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS INCREASING
AS THE 00Z EUROPEAN/CANADIAN AND THE GFS (AND ITS ALL ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS) INDICATE A SIMILAR SCENARIO KEEPING THE OCEAN STORM AND
MOST OF ITS PRECIPITATION TO OUR EAST.

WHAT THIS WILL MEAN FOR US IN ONLY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
TONIGHT...BUT EVEN MOST OF THESE SHOULD HOLD OFF LATE ENOUGH TO NOT
IMPACT ALL THE TRICK OR TREATERS. IT MIGHT BE MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH
FOR A SNOW FLAKES IN THE ADIRONDACK BUT ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE
EXTREMELY MINOR AT THE FREEZING LEVEL LOOKS TO REMAIN ABOVE 3000
FEET AND THE PRECIPITATION LIGHT.

SATURDAY...AS PHASING COMMENCES WELL TO OUR SOUTHEAST...IT WILL
REMAIN OVERCAST WITH PERHAPS A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. AGAIN THESE
WILL BE LIGHT AND IN MOST CASES...RAIN...WITH ANY SNOW SHOWERS
CONFINED TO THE HIGHEST TERRAIN.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT...A POWERFUL OCEAN STORM WILL BE OFF CAPE COD. IT
LOOKS AS IF ITS HEAVY BANDS OF PRECIPITATION (BOTH THE WARM AND COLD
CONVEYOR BELTS AND ASSOCIATED BANDING) WILL STAY TO OUR EAST. LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ON ITS OUTER EDGE WILL SKIM MAINLY OUR EASTERN
TERRAIN...BUT A FEW OF THESE COULD WORK INTO THE HUDSON VALLEY AND
POINTS EAST. BY THIS TIME...H850 TEMPERATURES WILL DIP WELL BELOW
ZERO EVERYWHERE AND FREEZING LEVELS WILL EVENTUALLY CLOSE TO THE
GROUND. THEREFORE...MOST OF WHAT FALL SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE
SNOW...BUT THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH OF IT. A COATING TO A COUPLE OF
INCHES IS POSSIBLE (BUT NOT CERTAIN) OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
WHILE A DUSTING CANNOT BE RULED EVEN ON THE VALLEY FLOORS...IT
APPEARS UNLIKELY.

TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S IN THE
VALLEYS...20S HIGHER TERRAIN. A GUSTY WIND UP TO 30 MPH WILL ADD TO
THE CHILL.

SUNDAY...ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...LOOK TO BE GONE BY AFTERNOON. IN FACT...CLOUDS LOOK TO
GIVE WAY TO INCREASING SUNSHINE. NEVERTHELESS IT WILL BE A DOWNRIGHT
COLD AND WINDY DAY WITH HIGHS NO BETTER THAN MID OR UPPER 40S IN THE
VALLEYS...MID 30S TO LOWER 40S HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH GOOD
MIXING...NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS COULD REACH 30-35 MPH OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION.

THE WIND WILL SLOWLY ABATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTH OF REGION...BUT NOT COMPLETELY. ASSUMING THE SKY REMAINS
MOSTLY CLEAR (WHICH WE THINK IT WILL) TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DIVE INTO
THE 20S ACROSS MOST AREAS...UPPER 20S VALLEYS AND LOWER TO MID 20S
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A QUIET START TO THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKE CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THESE
TWO DAYS. A WEAK WARM FRONT PASSING WELL TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA MAY PRODUCE AN ISOLATED SHOWER ON TUESDAY ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A SLOW INCREASE IN CLOUDS ON TUESDAY. AFTER A
CHILLY START IN THE 20S...HIGHS MONDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S
TO LOWER 50S. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. HIGHS
TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...AND MOVE
THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS INDICATE A LOT OF THE PCPN ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE POST-FRONTAL. HAVE FORECAST POPS TO INCREASE
BY WEDNESDAY TO SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE SOUTHEAST ZONES...RANGING UP
TO 40 PERCENT OVER THE NORTHWEST.

THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT AFTER IT MOVES TO THE SOUTH OF THE ALBANY
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROF
WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...ALONG WITH A WEAK
SURFACE LOW...AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...HAVE FORECAST THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO
INCREASE TO 35 TO 40 PERCENT IN ALL AREAS BY LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AND TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT ON THURSDAY. THERE ARE SOME MODELS
DIFFERENCES WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS HAS A MUCH STRONGER TROF AND
MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF PCPN. THE ECMWF TROF IS FAIRLY WEAK AND ONLY
SHOWS SCATTERED PCPN.

IT WILL REMAIN MILD ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE 35 TO 45. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN
THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 60. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S. HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXCEPT FOR LINGERING IFR FOG CONDITIONS TO START THE TAF PERIOD AT
KPSF...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF TAF
SITES THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z SATURDAY. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE CLOUD DECK MAY LOWER TO
MVFR LEVELS LATE TONIGHT AT KPOU AND KPSF. OTHERWISE EXPECT MOST OF
THE TAF PERIOD TO FEATURE A BKN/OVC CLOUD DECK BETWEEN 4000 AND 5000
FEET FROM THIS AFTN INTO TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO START...THEN BECOME
EASTERLY AT AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS LATER THIS MORNING...THEN BECOME
NORTHERLY AT AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. RH
VALUES WILL GENERALLY AROUND OR GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...ESPECIALLY
AT NIGHT WHEN VALUES WILL 75-90 PERCENT.

TODAY WILL START WITH FILTERED SUNSHINE FOLLOWED BY INCREASING
CLOUDS. IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY. SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS. SOME OF THESE WILL
BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT. ANY REAL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE UP TO A
COUPLE OF INCHES COULD COLLECT IN A FEW SPOTS.

THE WIND WILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE WIND WILL
TURN NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH.

ON SUNDAY...SUNSHINE RETURNS BUT IT WILL BE WINDY AND COLD WITH
GUSTS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST 30 MPH OR HIGHER. IT WILL BE COLD THAT
DAY AS WELL. RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE 30S VALLEYS...AND 40S
MOUNTAINS.

DRY WEATHER WILL HOLD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY..BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRODUCES SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

ANY PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE LIGHT...AND BASIN
AVERAGE AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY. SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL ACTUALLY FALL AS LIGHT
SNOW.

DRY WEATHER SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NO BIG
PRECIPITATION MAKERS IN SIGHT.

RIVER LEVELS WILL HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/KL
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/KL/NAS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV







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000
FXUS61 KOKX 311640
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1240 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TRACKS NORTHEAST TO
A POSITION SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD BY SATURDAY EVENING.
MEANWHILE...ANOTHER COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
LATE SATURDAY...THEN TRACKS NORTHEAST TO THE CANADIAN MARITIME
PROVINCES BY SUNDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS
STORM INTO TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL PASS TO THE NORTH ON
TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A SERIES OF FAST MOVING COLD FRONTS DURING
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST.

A 700 HPA SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH
WILL INTERACT WITH THIS LOW AND HAVE IT TRACK SLOWLY NE AND DEEPEN
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...WILL WORK TO FORM AN INVERTED TROUGH
TO THE N-NW OF THIS LOW BY THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT IN HAVING AN AREA OF ISOLD-SCT -SHRA TRACK FROM OFF THE
LI COAST BACK TOWARDS W/NW THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
IN FOR THIS AS COVERAGE LIKELY WILL BE SPARSE AND INTENSITY QUITE
LIGHT.

OTHERWISE...PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER IS FORECAST FROM THE
COMBINATION OF MOISTURE BEING TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION NEAR 850
MB AND HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTH.

TEMPS ON TRACK AND HIGHS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ALL MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN TAKING A DEVELOPING CUTOFF LOW DOWN
INTO THE CAROLINAS BY SATURDAY MORNING...THEN LIFTING IT EAST THEN
NORTHEAST AS IT OPENS TO NEAR/OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE RESULT WILL BE SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN BECOMING LIKELY BY LATE
TONIGHT ACROSS ROUGHLY THE S 1/2 OF THE CWA AND A CHANCE OF LIGHT
RAIN N. THE SPOTTY RAIN WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY...BECOMING MORE
PERIODIC BY AFTERNOON OVER THE S 1/2 OF THE CWA. PRECIPITATION
THEN TAPERS OFF FROM NW TO SE AS THE SURFACE LOW EXITS WELL TO THE
NE SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW IT APPEARS THAT IN MOST AREAS...THE
PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END BEFORE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL COLD AIR
COMES IN TO CAUSE ANY MIXING WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW. A POSSIBLE
EXCEPTION COULD BE ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1000-1500 FT ACROSS MAINLY
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF S CT...WHERE THE COLD AIR MIGHT ARRIVE IN
TIME TO CAUSE A FEW FLAKES OF SNOW TO MIX IN...IF NOT BRIEFLY
CHANGE TO ALL SNOW...BEFORE ENDING. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS EVEN
AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS THAT THERE WILL BE LITTLE IF ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION FROM THIS SYSTEM.

THE MAIN THREAT FROM THIS SYSTEM IS STRONG GUSTY WINDS. WINDS
SHOULD GUSTS TO UP TO 30-35 MPH BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND 25-30 MPH OVER WESTERN PORTIONS. AS THE
STORM CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AS IT PULLS AWAY THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH OVER MAINLY S CT/LONG ISLAND
AND POSSIBLY NYC/FAR E PORTIONS OF NE NJ SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW
FORECASTING WINDS TO REMAIN JUST UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA.
HOWEVER...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A WIND ADVISORY WAS ULTIMATELY
NEEDED FOR AT LEAST E SUFFOLK COUNTY AND SE CT. THIS IS HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW - BUT BASED
ON LATEST GUIDANCE IT APPEARS THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CWA.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT:
FOR LOWS TONIGHT USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES...EXPECT VALUES TO BE AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

A BLEND OF ECS/MET/MAV GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND
A MIX DOWN FROM 950 HPA NEAR THE COAST AND 925 HPA INLAND...PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...WAS USED FOR HIGHS ON SATURDAY. READINGS SHOULD
BE AROUND 5 TO MAYBE 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT...A BLEND OF NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES WITH
MAV/MET GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR LOWS...WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM ON SUNDAY...AND
THE RESULTING TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUSTAIN WINDY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE DAYTIME BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING SUNDAY
NIGHT. FORECAST BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS COULD SUPPORT ADVISORY CRITERIA
WIND GUSTS DURING THE DAY...PARTICULARLY FOR THE COASTAL AREAS. SOME
SPOTS COULD EVEN REACH CRITERIA BASED ON SUSTAINED WINDS. ASIDE FROM
THIS...PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH BELOW NORMAL
HIGHS. WIND CHILLS AT DAYBREAK WILL BE AROUND 30 DEGREES.

HIGH PRESSURE THEN CONTINUES TO BUILD IN ON MONDAY AND MOVES
OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY. DRY BOTH DAYS WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES.

FOR WEDNESDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES...BUT IS MOISTURE
STARVED. JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS NORTH OF THE CITY. A
STRONGER COLD FRONT THEN FOLLOWS...AND IS PROGGED TO PASS THROUGH
SOMETIME THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT. POPS EVENTUALLY CLIMB INTO
THE CHANCE CATEGORY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS
FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES
NORTHEAST...PASSING SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD SATURDAY EVENING. ANOTHER
LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE SATURDAY AND
TRACK ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES SUNDAY EVENING.

MORNING TAFS ON TRACK. WILL MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON LATEST
SFC OBS AND SATELLITE TRENDS.

N/NE WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NE AT 10-15 KT AS THE MORNING
PROGRESSES. BY 06Z SAT...NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KT
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT. AFT 15Z SAT...NE WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT
WITH GUSTS OF 30-35 KT.

CLOUDS...VFR CIGS 4000-5000 FT. MVFR CIGS FORECAST MAINLY AFTER
SUNSET...WITHIN 2 HOURS OF FORECAST TIME.

LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST FROM 18Z - 21Z.

     ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE AFT 18Z...MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE WITHIN 2 HOURS EITHER SIDE OF FORECAST.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE AFT 18Z...MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE WITHIN 2 HOURS EITHER SIDE OF FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE AFT 18Z...MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE WITHIN 2 HOURS EITHER SIDE OF FORECAST.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING THE DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN AND MVFR CIGS
WITHIN 2 HOURS EITHER SIDE OF FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING THE DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN AND MVFR CIGS
WITHIN 2 HOURS EITHER SIDE OF FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING THE DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN AND MVFR CIGS
WITHIN 2 HOURS EITHER SIDE OF FORECAST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 15Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER IN RAIN. NE WINDS BACKING
TO THE NORTH AT 20-25KT WITH 30-35KT GUSTS.
.SUNDAY...VFR. NW WINDS 20-30 KT WITH 30-40 KT GUSTS.
.MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS SHOULD KEEP WINDS TO
AROUND 15 KT OR LESS TODAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS TONIGHT
IN RESPONSE TO A STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING TO THE S AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING WELL TO THE WEST. THIS SHOULD BRING GUSTS TO
25-30 KT TO ALL WATERS TONIGHT...SO HAVE CONTINUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY. THE HIGH TO THE WEST APPROACHES SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...AND A SERIES OF STRENGTHENING COASTAL LOWS RESULT IN A
CONTINUING TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS.
THIS LIKELY WILL RESULT IN GUSTS TO GALE FORCE OVER ALL WATERS
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...WITH WIND GUSTS INCREASING TO 40-45
KT SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH THESE GUSTS INTO SUNDAY. SEAS WILL BUILD
AS A RESULT TO 5-10 FT ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS AND 3-5 FT ON
THE EASTERN SOUND BY SATURDAY NIGHT.

N-NW GALES CONTINUE ON ALL WATERS DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...THEN
WINDS START TO DIMINISH AT NIGHT. BY MONDAY MORNING...ALL WATERS
SHOULD BE BELOW GALE FORCE GUSTS...HOWEVER SCA CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY PREVAIL ACROSS THE OCEAN AND EASTERN WATERS THROUGH A GOOD
PORTION OF THE DAY. LOOKS LIKE IT WILL TAKE UNTIL LATE MONDAY NIGHT
FOR SUB-SCA CONDITIONS TO REACH ALL OF THE WATERS WHEN A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE REACHES THE EASTERN SEABOARD  A RETURN WSW FLOW FOR
TUESDAY SHOULD REMAIN ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LIGHT PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
TONIGHT. A MORE STEADY/LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS FORECAST FROM
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT - WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER S/E
AREAS. FOR NOW FORECASTING TOTAL RAINFALL FROM TONIGHT-
SATURDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM AROUND A TENTH AN INCH OVER ORANGE
COUNTY TO A HALF AND INCH TO MAYBE THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OVER
SE CT/E SUFFOLK COUNTY. GIVEN THE EXPECTED DURATION OF
PRECIPITATION OF 24+HOURS...NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC IMPACT IS
ANTICIPATED FROM THIS SYSTEM AT THIS TIME.

NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM EDT SATURDAY TO 5 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/PW
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...JC/MALOIT/PW
HYDROLOGY...JC/MALOIT/PW







000
FXUS61 KOKX 311518
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1118 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TODAY...THEN TRACKS
NORTHEAST TO A POSITION SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD BY SATURDAY EVENING.
MEANWHILE...ANOTHER COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
LATE SATURDAY...THEN TRACKS NORTHEAST TO THE CANADIAN MARITIME
PROVINCES BY SUNDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS
STORM INTO TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL PASS TO THE NORTH ON
TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A SERIES OF FAST MOVING COLD FRONTS
DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH.

A 700 HPA SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY OVER N CENTRAL GA...ROUNDING THE
BASE OF A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH WILL INTERACT WITH THIS LOW AND HAVE
IT TRACK SLOWLY NE AND DEEPEN THROUGH THE DAY. MEANWHILE...A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
CURRENTLY...WILL WORK TO FORM AN INVERTED TROUGH TO THE N-NW OF
THIS LOW BY THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN HAVING
AN AREA OF ISOLD-SCT -SHRA TRACK FROM OFF THE LI COAST BACK
TOWARDS W/NW THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR THIS
AS COVERAGE LIKELY WILL BE SPARSE AND INTENSITY QUITE LIGHT.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE FROM THE COMBINATION OF
MOISTURE BEING TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION NEAR 850 MB AND HIGHER
LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTH.

TEMPS ON TRACK AND HIGHS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ALL MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN TAKING A DEVELOPING CUTOFF LOW DOWN
INTO THE CAROLINAS BY SATURDAY MORNING...THEN LIFTING IT EAST THEN
NORTHEAST AS IT OPENS TO NEAR/OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE RESULT WILL BE SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN BECOMING LIKELY BY LATE
TONIGHT ACROSS ROUGHLY THE S 1/2 OF THE CWA AND A CHANCE OF LIGHT
RAIN N. THE SPOTTY RAIN WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY...BECOMING MORE
PERIODIC BY AFTERNOON OVER THE S 1/2 OF THE CWA. PRECIPITATION
THEN TAPERS OFF FROM NW TO SE AS THE SURFACE LOW EXITS WELL TO THE
NE SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW IT APPEARS THAT IN MOST AREAS...THE
PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END BEFORE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL COLD AIR
COMES IN TO CAUSE ANY MIXING WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW. A POSSIBLE
EXCEPTION COULD BE ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1000-1500 FT ACROSS MAINLY
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF S CT...WHERE THE COLD AIR MIGHT ARRIVE IN
TIME TO CAUSE A FEW FLAKES OF SNOW TO MIX IN...IF NOT BRIEFLY
CHANGE TO ALL SNOW...BEFORE ENDING. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS EVEN
AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS THAT THERE WILL BE LITTLE IF ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION FROM THIS SYSTEM.

THE MAIN THREAT FROM THIS SYSTEM IS STRONG GUSTY WINDS. WINDS
SHOULD GUSTS TO UP TO 30-35 MPH BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND 25-30 MPH OVER WESTERN PORTIONS. AS THE
STORM CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AS IT PULLS AWAY THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH OVER MAINLY S CT/LONG ISLAND
AND POSSIBLY NYC/FAR E PORTIONS OF NE NJ SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW
FORECASTING WINDS TO REMAIN JUST UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA.
HOWEVER...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A WIND ADVISORY WAS ULTIMATELY
NEEDED FOR AT LEAST E SUFFOLK COUNTY AND SE CT. THIS IS HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW - BUT BASED
ON LATEST GUIDANCE IT APPEARS THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CWA.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT:
FOR LOWS TONIGHT USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES...EXPECT VALUES TO BE AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

A BLEND OF ECS/MET/MAV GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND
A MIX DOWN FROM 950 HPA NEAR THE COAST AND 925 HPA INLAND...PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...WAS USED FOR HIGHS ON SATURDAY. READINGS SHOULD
BE AROUND 5 TO MAYBE 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT...A BLEND OF NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES WITH
MAV/MET GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR LOWS...WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM ON SUNDAY...AND
THE RESULTING TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUSTAIN WINDY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE DAYTIME BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING SUNDAY
NIGHT. FORECAST BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS COULD SUPPORT ADVISORY CRITERIA
WIND GUSTS DURING THE DAY...PARTICULARLY FOR THE COASTAL AREAS. SOME
SPOTS COULD EVEN REACH CRITERIA BASED ON SUSTAINED WINDS. ASIDE FROM
THIS...PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH BELOW NORMAL
HIGHS. WIND CHILLS AT DAYBREAK WILL BE AROUND 30 DEGREES.

HIGH PRESSURE THEN CONTINUES TO BUILD IN ON MONDAY AND MOVES
OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY. DRY BOTH DAYS WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES.

FOR WEDNESDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES...BUT IS MOISTURE
STARVED. JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS NORTH OF THE CITY. A
STRONGER COLD FRONT THEN FOLLOWS...AND IS PROGGED TO PASS THROUGH
SOMETIME THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT. POPS EVENTUALLY CLIMB INTO
THE CHANCE CATEGORY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS
FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES
NORTHEAST...PASSING SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD SATURDAY EVENING. ANOTHER
LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE SATURDAY AND
TRACK ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES SUNDAY EVENING.

MORNING TAFS ON TRACK. WILL MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON LATEST
SFC OBS AND SATELLITE TRENDS.

N/NE WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NE AT 10-15 KT AS THE MORNING
PROGRESSES. BY 06Z SAT...NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KT
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT. AFT 15Z SAT...NE WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT
WITH GUSTS OF 30-35 KT.

CLOUDS...VFR CIGS 4000-5000 FT. MVFR CIGS FORECAST MAINLY AFTER
SUNSET...WITHIN 2 HOURS OF FORECAST TIME.

LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST FROM 18Z - 21Z.

     ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE AFT 18Z...MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE WITHIN 2 HOURS EITHER SIDE OF FORECAST.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE AFT 18Z...MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE WITHIN 2 HOURS EITHER SIDE OF FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE AFT 18Z...MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE WITHIN 2 HOURS EITHER SIDE OF FORECAST.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING THE DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN AND MVFR CIGS
WITHIN 2 HOURS EITHER SIDE OF FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING THE DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN AND MVFR CIGS
WITHIN 2 HOURS EITHER SIDE OF FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING THE DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN AND MVFR CIGS
WITHIN 2 HOURS EITHER SIDE OF FORECAST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 15Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER IN RAIN. NE WINDS BACKING
TO THE NORTH AT 20-25KT WITH 30-35KT GUSTS.
.SUNDAY...VFR. NW WINDS 20-30 KT WITH 30-40 KT GUSTS.
.MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS SHOULD KEEP WINDS TO
AROUND 15 KT OR LESS TODAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS TONIGHT
IN RESPONSE TO A STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING TO THE S AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE SW...THIS SHOULD BRING GUSTS TO 25-30
KT TO ALL WATERS TONIGHT...SO HAVE CONTINUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THEN. THE HIGH MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA SATURDAY-SUNDAY...AND
A SERIES OF STRENGTHENING COASTAL LOWS RESULT IN A CONTINUING
TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS. THIS LIKELY
WILL RESULT IN GUSTS TO GALE FORCE OVER ALL WATERS DURING THE DAY
ON SATURDAY...WITH WIND GUSTS INCREASING TO 40-45 KT SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH THESE GUSTS INTO SUNDAY. SEAS WILL BUILD AS A RESULT
TO 5-10 FT ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS AND 3-5 FT ON THE EASTERN
SOUND BY SATURDAY NIGHT.

N-NW GALES CONTINUE ON ALL WATERS DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...THEN
WINDS START TO DIMINISH AT NIGHT. BY MONDAY MORNING...ALL WATERS
SHOULD BE BELOW GALE FORCE GUSTS...HOWEVER SCA CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY PREVAIL ACROSS THE OCEAN AND EASTERN WATERS THROUGH A GOOD
PORTION OF THE DAY. LOOKS LIKE IT WILL TAKE UNTIL LATE MONDAY NIGHT
FOR SUB-SCA CONDITIONS TO REACH ALL OF THE WATERS WHEN A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE REACHES THE EASTERN SEABOARD  A RETURN WSW FLOW FOR
TUESDAY SHOULD REMAIN ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY THROUGH THIS MORNING...THEN LIGHT PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS INTO
TONIGHT. A MORE STEADY/LIGHT-MODERATE RAIN IS FORECAST FROM
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT - WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER S/E
AREAS. FOR NOW FORECASTING TOTAL RAINFALL FROM FRIDAY NIGHT-
SATURDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM AROUND A TENTH AN INCH OVER ORANGE
COUNTY TO A HALF AND INCH TO MAYBE THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OVER
SE CT/E SUFFOLK COUNTY. GIVEN THE EXPECTED DURATION OF
PRECIPITATION OF 24+HOURS...NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC IMPACT IS
ANTICIPATED FROM THIS SYSTEM AT THIS TIME.

NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM EDT SATURDAY TO 5 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/PW
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...JC/MALOIT/PW
HYDROLOGY...JC/MALOIT/PW








000
FXUS61 KOKX 311435
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1035 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TODAY...THEN TRACKS
NORTHEAST TO A POSITION SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD BY SATURDAY EVENING.
MEANWHILE...ANOTHER COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
LATE SATURDAY...THEN TRACKS NORTHEAST TO THE CANADIAN MARITIME
PROVINCES BY SUNDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS
STORM INTO TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL PASS TO THE NORTH ON
TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A SERIES OF FAST MOVING COLD FRONTS
DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH.

A 700 HPA SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY OVER N CENTRAL GA...ROUNDING THE
BASE OF A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH WILL INTERACT WITH THIS LOW AND HAVE
IT TRACK SLOWLY NE AND DEEPEN THROUGH THE DAY. MEANWHILE...A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
CURRENTLY...WILL WORK TO FORM AN INVERTED TROUGH TO THE N-NW OF
THIS LOW BY THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN HAVING
AN AREA OF ISOLD-SCT -SHRA TRACK WNW FROM OFF THE LI COAST BACK
TOWARDS W/NW THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR THIS
AS COVERAGE LIKELY WILL BE SPARSE AND INTENSITY QUITE LIGHT.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE FROM THE COMBINATION OF
MOISTURE BEING TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION NEAR 850 MB AND HIGHER
LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTH.

TEMPS ON TRACK AND HIGHS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ALL MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN TAKING A DEVELOPING CUTOFF LOW DOWN
INTO THE CAROLINAS BY SATURDAY MORNING...THEN LIFTING IT EAST THEN
NORTHEAST AS IT OPENS TO NEAR/OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE RESULT WILL BE SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN BECOMING LIKELY BY LATE
TONIGHT ACROSS ROUGHLY THE S 1/2 OF THE CWA AND A CHANCE OF LIGHT
RAIN N. THE SPOTTY RAIN WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY...BECOMING MORE
PERIODIC BY AFTERNOON OVER THE S 1/2 OF THE CWA. PRECIPITATION
THEN TAPERS OFF FROM NW TO SE AS THE SURFACE LOW EXITS WELL TO THE
NE SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW IT APPEARS THAT IN MOST AREAS...THE
PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END BEFORE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL COLD AIR
COMES IN TO CAUSE ANY MIXING WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW. A POSSIBLE
EXCEPTION COULD BE ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1000-1500 FT ACROSS MAINLY
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF S CT...WHERE THE COLD AIR MIGHT ARRIVE IN
TIME TO CAUSE A FEW FLAKES OF SNOW TO MIX IN...IF NOT BRIEFLY
CHANGE TO ALL SNOW...BEFORE ENDING. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS EVEN
AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS THAT THERE WILL BE LITTLE IF ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION FROM THIS SYSTEM.

THE MAIN THREAT FROM THIS SYSTEM IS STRONG GUSTY WINDS. WINDS
SHOULD GUSTS TO UP TO 30-35 MPH BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND 25-30 MPH OVER WESTERN PORTIONS. AS THE
STORM CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AS IT PULLS AWAY THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH OVER MAINLY S CT/LONG ISLAND
AND POSSIBLY NYC/FAR E PORTIONS OF NE NJ SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW
FORECASTING WINDS TO REMAIN JUST UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA.
HOWEVER...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A WIND ADVISORY WAS ULTIMATELY
NEEDED FOR AT LEAST E SUFFOLK COUNTY AND SE CT. THIS IS HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW - BUT BASED
ON LATEST GUIDANCE IT APPEARS THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CWA.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT:
FOR LOWS TONIGHT USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES...EXPECT VALUES TO BE AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

A BLEND OF ECS/MET/MAV GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND
A MIX DOWN FROM 950 HPA NEAR THE COAST AND 925 HPA INLAND...PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...WAS USED FOR HIGHS ON SATURDAY. READINGS SHOULD
BE AROUND 5 TO MAYBE 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT...A BLEND OF NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES WITH
MAV/MET GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR LOWS...WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM ON SUNDAY...AND
THE RESULTING TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUSTAIN WINDY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE DAYTIME BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING SUNDAY
NIGHT. FORECAST BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS COULD SUPPORT ADVISORY CRITERIA
WIND GUSTS DURING THE DAY...PARTICULARLY FOR THE COASTAL AREAS. SOME
SPOTS COULD EVEN REACH CRITERIA BASED ON SUSTAINED WINDS. ASIDE FROM
THIS...PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH BELOW NORMAL
HIGHS. WIND CHILLS AT DAYBREAK WILL BE AROUND 30 DEGREES.

HIGH PRESSURE THEN CONTINUES TO BUILD IN ON MONDAY AND MOVES
OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY. DRY BOTH DAYS WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES.

FOR WEDNESDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES...BUT IS MOISTURE
STARVED. JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS NORTH OF THE CITY. A
STRONGER COLD FRONT THEN FOLLOWS...AND IS PROGGED TO PASS THROUGH
SOMETIME THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT. POPS EVENTUALLY CLIMB INTO
THE CHANCE CATEGORY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS
FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES
NORTHEAST...PASSING SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD SATURDAY EVENING. ANOTHER
LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE SATURDAY AND
TRACK ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES SUNDAY EVENING.

MORNING TAFS ON TRACK. WILL MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON LATEST
SFC OBS AND SATELLITE TRENDS.

N/NE WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NE AT 10-15 KT AS THE MORNING
PROGRESSES. BY 06Z SAT...NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KT
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT. AFT 15Z SAT...NE WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT
WITH GUSTS OF 30-35 KT.

CLOUDS...VFR CIGS 4000-5000 FT. MVFR CIGS FORECAST MAINLY AFTER
SUNSET...WITHIN 2 HOURS OF FORECAST TIME.

LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST FROM 18Z - 21Z.

     ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE AFT 18Z...MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE WITHIN 2 HOURS EITHER SIDE OF FORECAST.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE AFT 18Z...MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE WITHIN 2 HOURS EITHER SIDE OF FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE AFT 18Z...MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE WITHIN 2 HOURS EITHER SIDE OF FORECAST.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING THE DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN AND MVFR CIGS
WITHIN 2 HOURS EITHER SIDE OF FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING THE DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN AND MVFR CIGS
WITHIN 2 HOURS EITHER SIDE OF FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING THE DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN AND MVFR CIGS
WITHIN 2 HOURS EITHER SIDE OF FORECAST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 15Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER IN RAIN. NE WINDS BACKING
TO THE NORTH AT 20-25KT WITH 30-35KT GUSTS.
.SUNDAY...VFR. NW WINDS 20-30 KT WITH 30-40 KT GUSTS.
.MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS SHOULD KEEP WINDS TO
AROUND 15 KT OR LESS TODAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS TONIGHT
IN RESPONSE TO A STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING TO THE S AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE SW...THIS SHOULD BRING GUSTS TO 25-30
KT TO ALL WATERS TONIGHT...SO HAVE CONTINUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THEN. THE HIGH MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA SATURDAY-
SUNDAY...AND A SERIES OF STRENGTHENING COASTAL LOWS RESULT IN A
CONTINUING TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS.
THIS LIKELY WILL RESULT IN GUSTS TO GALE FORCE OVER ALL WATERS
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...WITH WIND GUSTS INCREASING TO 40-45
KT SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH THESE GUSTS INTO SUNDAY. SEAS WILL BUILD
AS A RESULT TO 5-9 FT ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS AND 3-5 FT ON
THE EASTERN SOUND BY SATURDAY NIGHT.

N-NW GALES CONTINUE ON ALL WATERS DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...THEN
WINDS START TO DIMINISH AT NIGHT. BY MONDAY MORNING...ALL WATERS
SHOULD BE BELOW GALE FORCE GUSTS...HOWEVER SCA CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY PREVAIL ACROSS THE OCEAN AND EASTERN WATERS THROUGH A GOOD
PORTION OF THE DAY. LOOKS LIKE IT WILL TAKE UNTIL LATE MONDAY NIGHT
FOR SUB-SCA CONDITIONS TO REACH ALL OF THE WATERS WHEN A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE REACHES THE EASTERN SEABOARD  A RETURN WSW FLOW FOR
TUESDAY SHOULD REMAIN ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY THROUGH THIS MORNING...THEN LIGHT PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS INTO
TONIGHT. A MORE STEADY/LIGHT-MODERATE RAIN IS FORECAST FROM
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT - WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER S/E
AREAS. FOR NOW FORECASTING TOTAL RAINFALL FROM FRIDAY NIGHT-
SATURDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM AROUND A TENTH AN INCH OVER ORANGE
COUNTY TO A HALF AND INCH TO MAYBE THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OVER
SE CT/E SUFFOLK COUNTY. GIVEN THE EXPECTED DURATION OF
PRECIPITATION OF 24+HOURS...NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC IMPACT IS
ANTICIPATED FROM THIS SYSTEM AT THIS TIME.

NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/PW
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...JC/MALOIT/PW
HYDROLOGY...JC/MALOIT








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000
FXUS61 KBOX 311416
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1016 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. A DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM
WILL MOVE UP THE COAST SATURDAY AND PASS OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY SUNDAY BRINGING HIGH WINDS AND RAIN TO THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. ONE OR
TWO COLD FRONTS MAY CROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
***UPDATES MADE TO WEEKEND STORM***

1015 AM UPDATE...BASED ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAVE INCREASED
WINDS FOR THE SATURDAY TO SUNDAY TIME PERIOD. WHILE THERE IS STILL
A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ON THE TRACK OF THE COASTAL LOW...BELIEVE IT
WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO RESULT IN VERY
GUSTY TO POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE
REGION. THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR HIGH WINDS TO OCCUR IS OVER THE
CAPE AND ISLANDS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. HOWEVER...WITH THE 06Z
GFS BRINGING THE LOW A BIT CLOSER TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...HAVE
ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR ALL OF EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND
RHODE ISLAND.

OVERALL...THE FORECAST FOR TODAY IS ON TRACK...NO CHANGES WERE
MADE TO THE FORECAST FOR TODAY.

745 AM UPDATE...

ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AREA OF LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
AREAS AT 07Z...THOUGH NOTING SOME CLEARING ACROSS THE CT VALLEY AS
WELL AS ALONG THE S COAST ON LATEST IR SATELLITE LOOP. NAM AND GFS
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATING THAT THE 5-6KFT CEILINGS MAY BREAK UP
BRIEFLY AROUND MID TO LATE MORNING BEFORE REDEVELOPING AS NE WINDS
BRING IN INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DURING THE AFTERNOON...
AGAIN ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS.

LOW PRES MOVES SE OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES...THEN SECONDARY
DEVELOPMENT BEGINS OFF THE MID ATLC COAST. LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE
DEEP MOISTURE WITH THE CYCLOGENESIS WILL REMAIN S OF THE REGION SO
HAVE KEPT A DRY FORECAST GOING. MAY SEE SOME SPRINKLES AND PATCHY
DRIZZLE DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY ALONG THE E COAST...BUT NOT ENOUGH
TO MENTION AT THIS POINT.

EXPECT TEMPS TO ONLY RISE TO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER
INLAND TERRAIN...THEN MAINLY IN THE 50S ELSEWHERE WITH THE
FRESHENING E-NE WINDS ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...SHORT RANGE MODELS APPEAR TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF NOT ONE BUT TWO CENTERS OF LOW PRES AS H5 LONG
WAVE TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE SE U.S. NOTING TWO STRONG UPPER LEVEL
JETS MOVING AROUND THE BASE OF THIS DIGGING TROUGH...THE FIRST
90-100 KT H3 JET AXIS WORKS NE OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL HELP
INTENSIFY THE FIRST LOW OFF THE MID ATLC COAST AROUND 12Z SAT.

AREA OF RAIN WILL WORK STEADILY NORTHWARD...ESPECIALLY AROUND OR
AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL ALSO SEE NE WINDS INCREASE ALONG THE COAST
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KT...HIGHEST ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE COD
AND THE ISLANDS. BEST SHOT FOR PRECIP WILL BE ACROSS RI/E MA.

EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S OVER SW NH TO
BETWEEN 45 AND 50 ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...
DEEP AMPLITUDE TROUGHS ON BOTH COASTS SATURDAY WITH A RIDGE IN
BETWEEN. SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN TROUGH GENERATES A
CUTOFF UPPER LOW WITH TWO JET STREAMS...A NORTHERN STREAM ALONG
THE CANADIAN BORDER AND A SOUTHERN STREAM MOVING WITH THE SHORT
WAVE. THE PATTERN SHIFTS EAST DURING THE WEEK WITH THE RIDGE
BUILDING OVER NEW ENGLAND. THE PATTERN THEN TRANSFORMS TO A MORE
ZONAL FLOW. REMAINS OF THE PACIFIC COAST TROUGH MOVE ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND MIDWEEK.

COLDER THAN NORMAL HEIGHTS WITH THE EASTERN TROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
HEIGHTS INCREASE TO NORMAL OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL BY MIDWEEK.
THIS POINTS TO A COLDER THAN NORMAL WEEKEND...TRENDING TO NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY MIDWEEK.

31/00Z GUIDANCE SUITE REMAINS IN DECENT OVERALL AGREEMENT. THERE
ALSO REMAIN SOME DIFFERENCES WITH TRACK...INTENSITY AND TIMING. AT
THIS POINT IT APPEARS SNOWFALL IS MOSTLY OFF THE TABLE AWAY FROM A
VERY BRIEF PERIOD LATE SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
EVEN THEN...IT WILL NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH. FAVORED A BLEND TO SMOOTH
OVER SOME OF THE MORE MINOR DIFFERENCES. THIS RESULTED IN VERY
GOOD CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THE DAILIES...

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...
COASTAL STORM CONTINUES TO BE INDICATED FOR SATURDAY AND EARLY
SUNDAY. SUPPORT COMES FROM TWO SETS OF FORCING MECHANISMS...
SUGGESTING A TWO-PART EVENT. INITIAL FORCING COMES FROM RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF NORTHERN STREAM JET SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
SEND A COASTAL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PAST SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.

THE SECOND FORCING COMES FROM LEFT EXIT REGION OF JET SUPPORTING
A POTENT SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE EASTERN TROUGH LATE
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. EVEN SO...MOST OF THE FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING WITH EACH SEGMENT IS FOCUSED OFFSHORE INTO THE MARITIMES
AND MAINE. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS FORCING SHOULD EXTEND INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH THE FIRST...AND POSSIBLY THE SECOND...OF
THE SEGMENTS. WE EXPECT RAIN SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
HIGHEST POPS OVER CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS...LESSER VALUES NORTH
AND WEST.

STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE AND A 50 KNOT LOW LEVEL
JET WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WINDY CONDITIONS. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL
BE OVER THE EASTERN/SOUTHEAST WATERS. STRONGEST LAND WINDS WILL BE
OVER THE OUTER CAPE AND ISLANDS...DIMINISHING FARTHER WEST. HAVE
FEATURED 45 KNOTS FOR THE STRONGEST WINDS AND 20-25 KNOTS IN THE
INTERIOR.

A COASTAL STORM WILL PASS US IN PIECES SATURDAY AND LATER
SATURDAY NIGHT...AS NOTED ABOVE. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO DIMINISH
WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND END ON THE MA EAST COAST AFTER
SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH MOST OF THIS STORM SHOULD REMAIN FAVORABLE
FOR ALL RAIN. AS THE WINDS SHIFT FROM NORTHEAST TO NORTHWEST
SATURDAY NIGHT...COLDER AIR WILL BE DRAWN IN WHICH COULD CHANGE
THE LAST SHOWERS OVER TO SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ANY
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD NOT BE MUCH MORE THAN A TRACE...WHERE IT
SNOWS AT ALL.

DRIER AIR SUNDAY WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES. COLD ADVECTION WILL
PROMOTE MIXING THROUGH AT LEAST 850 MB. WINDS IN THIS LAYER WILL
BE 35 TO 40 KNOTS...SO EXPECT NORTHWEST GUSTS TO AT LEAST THE
LOWER END OF THIS RANGE. WINDS DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE STORM
MOVES FARTHER AWAY.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. MONDAY SHOULD BE SUNNY AS
THIS HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD. MIXING WILL AGAIN BRING INCREASED WIND
GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS IN THE MIXED LAYER ARE EXPECTED
AROUND 30 KNOTS WITH POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE STRONGER SPEEDS. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH WITH SUNSET.

THIS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TUESDAY. THIS WILL MAKE ROOM
FOR A WARM FRONT TO SWING PAST. SUFFICIENT LIFT AND MOISTURE TO
SUPPORT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...BUT THE BEST WARM FRONTAL LIFT WILL
REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AND WEST SO EXPECT AT LEAST SOME SUN THROUGH
THE DAY.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...
LOW CONFIDENCE ON MIDWEEK WEATHER. AT LEAST ONE TROUGH IN THE
ZONAL FLOW WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS TIME. GFS AND
ECMWF ARE HINTING AT ONE ON WEDNESDAY...BUT SHOWING A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH PASSING ON THURSDAY. THE FORECAST WILL HAVE
CLOUDS AND LOW-END CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. ANY LEFTOVER IFR CIGS IN PATCHY FOG
WILL IMPROVE BY 13Z.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE THROUGH THE
NIGHT TO MVFR-IFR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WITH LOWEST CONDITIONS ALONG
THE COAST. EXPECT LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE S COAST AND INTO SE MA
AROUND OR AFTER MIDNIGHT...MOVING INTO THE REMAINDER MOST OF THE
REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...IFR CIGS AND MVFR OR IFR VSBYS IN PERIODS OF RAIN
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. VFR AND DRIER WEATHER MOVE IN FROM WEST
TO EAST EARLY SUNDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS SATURDAY GUSTING 35-45 KNOTS
ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS AND 25-35 KNOTS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN.
WINDS SHIFT TO NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND NORTHWEST SUNDAY. GUSTS 40-
45 KNOTS ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS...WITH 25-35 KNOTS ELSEWHERE ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

MONDAY...VFR. DAYTIME WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KNOTS
INLAND AND 35 KNOTS CAPE AND ISLANDS...DIMINISHING TOWARD EVENING.

TUESDAY...VFR WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. WINDS
WILL VEER TO E-NE DURING THE DAY AND BEGIN TO PICK UP. GUSTS UP TO
20 KT REACH THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS BY LATE IN THE DAY. SEAS
REMAIN BELOW 5 FT.

TONIGHT...E-NE WINDS INCREASE WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KT. SMALL
CRAFTS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE WATERS...BUT NOT QUITE
THERE FOR BOSTON HARBOR AND MASS/IPSWICH BAYS. SEAS WILL ALSO
BUILD ESPECIALLY ON THE SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS DURING THE NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

***STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR ALL THE COASTAL WATERS FOR SATURDAY
 AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING***

1015 AM UPDATE...GIVEN THE LATEST FORECAST GUIDANCE...HAVE
INCREASED THE WINDS QUITE A BIT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. LOOKS TO
BE A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF NORTHEASTERLY STORM FORCE
GUSTS...PARTICULARLY OVER THE EASTERN WATERS. DEPENDING ON THE
EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW...COULD SEE STORM FORCE GUSTS AS FAR WEST
AS THE WATERS SOUTH OF RHODE ISLAND.

SUNDAY...RAIN MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. WINDS SHIFT NORTHWEST.
EXPECTING THESE WINDS TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE SUNDAY NIGHT.
WITH THE WIND SHIFT...ROUGH SEAS WILL TRANSITION FARTHER OFFSHORE
WITH DIMINISHING SEAS CLOSER TO SHORE. GALE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY
LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

MONDAY...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WITH WIND GUSTS APPROACHING GALE
FORCE AGAIN DURING THE DAY. WINDS DIMINISH TOWARD EVENING. SEAS
WILL LINGER AT 5-9 FEET...ESPECIALLY ON THE OUTER WATERS. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IS LIKELY...LOW END CHANCE THAT GALES MAY BE NEEDED
ON SOME OF THE WATERS.

TUESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
1015 AM UPDATE...A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR THE SATURDAY
EVENING AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLES FOR THE EASTERN
MA COAST...INCLUDING THE NORTH FACING PORTION OF CAPE COD AND
NANTUCKET. THIS IS FOR THE POTENTIAL OF MINOR TO ISOLATED POCKETS
OF MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE ALONG WITH BEACH EROSION.

ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES ARE RATHER LOW SATURDAY EVENING AND AGAIN
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS
UP TO 50 KNOTS MAY RESULT IN SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 20 FEET OVER
THE OPEN WATERS.  STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW STRONG THE WINDS
WILL GET...GIVEN MODEL SPREAD.  HOWEVER...THERE CERTAINLY IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR A 2 TO 2.5 STORM SURGE TO COMBINED WITH SIGNIFICANT
WAVE ACTION.  THIS WILL RESULT IN MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WITH
PERHAPS ISOLATED POCKETS OF MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING.
THEREFORE...WE FELT IT WAS WORTH AT LEAST A WATCH AT THIS TIME.

THE HIGHEST RISK AREAS APPEAR TO BE HULL AND SCITUATE.  WE ALSO HAVE
TO BE CONCERNED WITH THE TYPICAL HOT SPOTS...SUCH AS SALISBURY AND
PLUM ISLAND WHICH ARE VERY SUSCEPTIBLE TO BEACH EROSION.  WILL ALSO
HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON NANTUCKET HARBOR...AS STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS
CAN CAUSE ISSUES FOR THEM.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR MAZ005>007-013>021.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
     MORNING FOR MAZ007-015-016-019-022-024.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MAZ022>024.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR RIZ001>008.
MARINE...STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...BELK/RLG/EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...FRANK




000
FXUS61 KOKX 311350
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
950 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TODAY...THEN TRACKS
NORTHEAST TO A POSITION SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD BY SATURDAY EVENING.
MEANWHILE...ANOTHER COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
LATE SATURDAY...THEN TRACKS NORTHEAST TO THE CANADIAN MARITIME
PROVINCES BY SUNDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS
STORM INTO TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL PASS TO THE NORTH ON
TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A SERIES OF FAST MOVING COLD FRONTS
DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH.

A 700 HPA SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY OVER N CENTRAL GA...ROUNDING THE
BASE OF A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH WILL INTERACT WITH THIS LOW AND HAVE
IT TRACK SLOWLY NE AND DEEPEN THROUGH THE DAY. MEANWHILE...A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
CURRENTLY...WILL WORK TO FORM AN INVERTED TROUGH TO THE N-NW OF
THIS LOW BY THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN HAVING
AN AREA OF ISOLD-SCT -SHRA TRACK WNW FROM OFF THE LI COAST BACK
TOWARDS W/NW THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR THIS
AS COVERAGE LIKELY WILL BE SPARSE AND INTENSITY QUITE LIGHT.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE FROM THE COMBINATION OF
MOISTURE BEING TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION NEAR 850 MB AND HIGHER
LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTH.

TEMPS ON TRACK AND HIGHS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ALL MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN TAKING A DEVELOPING CUTOFF LOW DOWN
INTO THE CAROLINAS BY SATURDAY MORNING...THEN LIFTING IT EAST THEN
NORTHEAST AS IT OPENS TO NEAR/OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE RESULT WILL BE SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN BECOMING LIKELY BY LATE
TONIGHT ACROSS ROUGHLY THE S 1/2 OF THE CWA AND A CHANCE OF LIGHT
RAIN N. THE SPOTTY RAIN WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY...BECOMING MORE
PERIODIC BY AFTERNOON OVER THE S 1/2 OF THE CWA. PRECIPITATION
THEN TAPERS OFF FROM NW TO SE AS THE SURFACE LOW EXITS WELL TO THE
NE SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW IT APPEARS THAT IN MOST AREAS...THE
PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END BEFORE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL COLD AIR
COMES IN TO CAUSE ANY MIXING WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW. A POSSIBLE
EXCEPTION COULD BE ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1000-1500 FT ACROSS MAINLY
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF S CT...WHERE THE COLD AIR MIGHT ARRIVE IN
TIME TO CAUSE A FEW FLAKES OF SNOW TO MIX IN...IF NOT BRIEFLY
CHANGE TO ALL SNOW...BEFORE ENDING. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS EVEN
AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS THAT THERE WILL BE LITTLE IF ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION FROM THIS SYSTEM.

THE MAIN THREAT FROM THIS SYSTEM IS STRONG GUSTY WINDS. WINDS
SHOULD GUSTS TO UP TO 30-35 MPH BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND 25-30 MPH OVER WESTERN PORTIONS. AS THE
STORM CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AS IT PULLS AWAY THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH OVER MAINLY S CT/LONG ISLAND
AND POSSIBLY NYC/FAR E PORTIONS OF NE NJ SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW
FORECASTING WINDS TO REMAIN JUST UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA.
HOWEVER...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A WIND ADVISORY WAS ULTIMATELY
NEEDED FOR AT LEAST E SUFFOLK COUNTY AND SE CT. THIS IS HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW - BUT BASED
ON LATEST GUIDANCE IT APPEARS THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CWA.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT:
FOR LOWS TONIGHT USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES...EXPECT VALUES TO BE AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

A BLEND OF ECS/MET/MAV GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND
A MIX DOWN FROM 950 HPA NEAR THE COAST AND 925 HPA INLAND...PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...WAS USED FOR HIGHS ON SATURDAY. READINGS SHOULD
BE AROUND 5 TO MAYBE 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT...A BLEND OF NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES WITH
MAV/MET GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR LOWS...WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM ON SUNDAY...AND
THE RESULTING TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUSTAIN WINDY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE DAYTIME BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING SUNDAY
NIGHT. FORECAST BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS COULD SUPPORT ADVISORY CRITERIA
WIND GUSTS DURING THE DAY...PARTICULARLY FOR THE COASTAL AREAS. SOME
SPOTS COULD EVEN REACH CRITERIA BASED ON SUSTAINED WINDS. ASIDE FROM
THIS...PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH BELOW NORMAL
HIGHS. WIND CHILLS AT DAYBREAK WILL BE AROUND 30 DEGREES.

HIGH PRESSURE THEN CONTINUES TO BUILD IN ON MONDAY AND MOVES
OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY. DRY BOTH DAYS WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES.

FOR WEDNESDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES...BUT IS MOISTURE
STARVED. JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS NORTH OF THE CITY. A
STRONGER COLD FRONT THEN FOLLOWS...AND IS PROGGED TO PASS THROUGH
SOMETIME THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT. POPS EVENTUALLY CLIMB INTO
THE CHANCE CATEGORY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS
FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST
     PASSING SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD SATURDAY EVENING. ANOTHER LOW IS FORECAST
TO DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE SATURDAY AND TRACK ACROSS THE
CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES SUNDAY EVENING.

WINDS...N LESS THAN 10 KT...BECOMING ENE NEAR 10 KT BY 15Z...THEN
NE INCREASING TO NEAR 15 KT WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KT AFT 06Z SAT ALONG
THE COAST AND 20-25 KT WITH GUSTS OF 30-35 KT SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

CLOUDS...VFR CIGS 4 THSD- 5 THSD FT. MVFR CIGS FORECAST MAINLY
AFTER SUNSET...WITHIN 2 HOURS OF FORECAST TIME.

LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST MAINLY 18Z - 21Z.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING THE DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN AND MVFR CIGS
WITHIN 2 HOURS EITHER SIDE OF FORECAST.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING THE DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN AND MVFR CIGS
WITHIN 2 HOURS EITHER SIDE OF FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING THE DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN AND MVFR CIGS
WITHIN 2 HOURS EITHER SIDE OF FORECAST.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING THE DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN AND MVFR CIGS
WITHIN 2 HOURS EITHER SIDE OF FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING THE DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN AND MVFR CIGS
WITHIN 2 HOURS EITHER SIDE OF FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING THE DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN AND MVFR CIGS
WITHIN 2 HOURS EITHER SIDE OF FORECAST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.TONIGHT-SAT NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER IN RAIN. NE-N WINDS 20-25G30-35KT.
.SUNDAY...VFR. NW WINDS 20-25G30-35KT.
.MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS SHOULD KEEP WINDS TO
AROUND 15 KT OR LESS TODAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS TONIGHT
IN RESPONSE TO A STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING TO THE S AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE SW...THIS SHOULD BRING GUSTS TO 25-30
KT TO ALL WATERS TONIGHT...SO HAVE CONTINUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THEN. THE HIGH MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA SATURDAY-
SUNDAY...AND A SERIES OF STRENGTHENING COASTAL LOWS RESULT IN A
CONTINUING TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS.
THIS LIKELY WILL RESULT IN GUSTS TO GALE FORCE OVER ALL WATERS
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...WITH WIND GUSTS INCREASING TO 40-45
KT SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH THESE GUSTS INTO SUNDAY. SEAS WILL BUILD
AS A RESULT TO 5-9 FT ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS AND 3-5 FT ON
THE EASTERN SOUND BY SATURDAY NIGHT.

N-NW GALES CONTINUE ON ALL WATERS DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...THEN
WINDS START TO DIMINISH AT NIGHT. BY MONDAY MORNING...ALL WATERS
SHOULD BE BELOW GALE FORCE GUSTS...HOWEVER SCA CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY PREVAIL ACROSS THE OCEAN AND EASTERN WATERS THROUGH A GOOD
PORTION OF THE DAY. LOOKS LIKE IT WILL TAKE UNTIL LATE MONDAY NIGHT
FOR SUB-SCA CONDITIONS TO REACH ALL OF THE WATERS WHEN A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE REACHES THE EASTERN SEABOARD  A RETURN WSW FLOW FOR
TUESDAY SHOULD REMAIN ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY THROUGH THIS MORNING...THEN LIGHT PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS INTO
TONIGHT. A MORE STEADY/LIGHT-MODERATE RAIN IS FORECAST FROM
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT - WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER S/E
AREAS. FOR NOW FORECASTING TOTAL RAINFALL FROM FRIDAY NIGHT-
SATURDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM AROUND A TENTH AN INCH OVER ORANGE
COUNTY TO A HALF AND INCH TO MAYBE THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OVER
SE CT/E SUFFOLK COUNTY. GIVEN THE EXPECTED DURATION OF
PRECIPITATION OF 24+HOURS...NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC IMPACT IS
ANTICIPATED FROM THIS SYSTEM AT THIS TIME.

NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/PW
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...GC
MARINE...JC/MALOIT/PW
HYDROLOGY...JC/MALOIT/PW







000
FXUS61 KALY 311339
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
939 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A POTENT SYSTEM WORKING OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WILL DIVE TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT AND PHASE WITH ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE OFFSHORE. THE NET RESULT OF THIS WILL BE ONLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS...TURNING TO SNOW
SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. A POWERFUL STORM
OFFSHORE WILL DRIVE THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON OVER US BY
SUNDAY ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG SHOULD BE GONE VERY SOON...THEN MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...EXCEPT MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT.

BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS...FEW CHANGES NEEDED TO
THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNON. PREVIOUS FORECAST DESCRIBES
THE IMPORTANT FEATURES THROUGH THE DAY AND IS BELOW...

THE H20 WATER LOOP DEPICTED TWO DISTURBANCE TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST
RESPECTIVELY. THE ONE TO OUR SOUTH WAS GENERATING THUNDERSTORMS OFF
THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. MEANWHILE THE STRONG ONE WAS IRONICALLY
LIGHTER PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS ACROSS MICHIGAN. THE
SECOND STORM HAD MUCH LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.

THE IMPULSE TO OUR SOUTH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM OUR
REGION. THE OTHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE TO OUR SOUTH. A WEAK AREA OF
ASCENT WILL DEVELOP BY LATE IN THE DAY...BUT DUE TO A DRY ATMOSPHERE
VERY LITTLE IF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TODAY.

DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND LIMITED MIXING...TEMPERATURES WILL RUN A
SHADE COOLER THAN NORMAL. LOOK FOR HIGHS 50-55 IN THE
VALLEYS...45-50 HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTH UNDER 10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DIVE FURTHER
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND EVENTUALLY PHASE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
SYSTEM OFFSHORE. THE DEEP MOISTURE (WITH PWATS OVER AN INCH) LOOKS
TO REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE. CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS INCREASING
AS THE 00Z EUROPEAN/CANADIAN AND THE GFS (AND ITS ALL ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS) INDICATE A SIMILAR SCENARIO KEEPING THE OCEAN STORM AND
MOST OF ITS PRECIPITATION TO OUR EAST.

WHAT THIS WILL MEAN FOR US IN ONLY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
TONIGHT...BUT EVEN MOST OF THESE SHOULD HOLD OFF LATE ENOUGH TO NOT
IMPACT ALL THE TRICK OR TREATERS. IT MIGHT BE MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH
FOR A SNOW FLAKES IN THE ADIRONDACK BUT ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE
EXTREMELY MINOR AT THE FREEZING LEVEL LOOKS TO REMAIN ABOVE 3000
FEET AND THE PRECIPITATION LIGHT.

SATURDAY...AS PHASING COMMENCES WELL TO OUR SOUTHEAST...IT WILL
REMAIN OVERCAST WITH PERHAPS A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. AGAIN THESE
WILL BE LIGHT AND IN MOST CASES...RAIN...WITH ANY SNOW SHOWERS
CONFINED TO THE HIGHEST TERRAIN.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT...A POWERFUL OCEAN STORM WILL BE OFF CAPE COD. IT
LOOKS AS IF ITS HEAVY BANDS OF PRECIPITATION (BOTH THE WARM AND COLD
CONVEYOR BELTS AND ASSOCIATED BANDING) WILL STAY TO OUR EAST. LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ON ITS OUTER EDGE WILL SKIM MAINLY OUR EASTERN
TERRAIN...BUT A FEW OF THESE COULD WORK INTO THE HUDSON VALLEY AND
POINTS EAST. BY THIS TIME...H850 TEMPERATURES WILL DIP WELL BELOW
ZERO EVERYWHERE AND FREEZING LEVELS WILL EVENTUALLY CLOSE TO THE
GROUND. THEREFORE...MOST OF WHAT FALL SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE
SNOW...BUT THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH OF IT. A COATING TO A COUPLE OF
INCHES IS POSSIBLE (BUT NOT CERTAIN) OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
WHILE A DUSTING CANNOT BE RULED EVEN ON THE VALLEY FLOORS...IT
APPEARS UNLIKELY.

TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S IN THE
VALLEYS...20S HIGHER TERRAIN. A GUSTY WIND UP TO 30 MPH WILL ADD TO
THE CHILL.

SUNDAY...ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...LOOK TO BE GONE BY AFTERNOON. IN FACT...CLOUDS LOOK TO
GIVE WAY TO INCREASING SUNSHINE. NEVERTHELESS IT WILL BE A DOWNRIGHT
COLD AND WINDY DAY WITH HIGHS NO BETTER THAN MID OR UPPER 40S IN THE
VALLEYS...MID 30S TO LOWER 40S HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH GOOD
MIXING...NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS COULD REACH 30-35 MPH OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION.

THE WIND WILL SLOWLY ABATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTH OF REGION...BUT NOT COMPLETELY. ASSUMING THE SKY REMAINS
MOSTLY CLEAR (WHICH WE THINK IT WILL) TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DIVE INTO
THE 20S ACROSS MOST AREAS...UPPER 20S VALLEYS AND LOWER TO MID 20S
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A QUIET START TO THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKE CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THESE
TWO DAYS. A WEAK WARM FRONT PASSING WELL TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA MAY PRODUCE AN ISOLATED SHOWER ON TUESDAY ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A SLOW INCREASE IN CLOUDS ON TUESDAY. AFTER A
CHILLY START IN THE 20S...HIGHS MONDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S
TO LOWER 50S. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. HIGHS
TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...AND MOVE
THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS INDICATE A LOT OF THE PCPN ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE POST-FRONTAL. HAVE FORECAST POPS TO INCREASE
BY WEDNESDAY TO SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE SOUTHEAST ZONES...RANGING UP
TO 40 PERCENT OVER THE NORTHWEST.

THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT AFTER IT MOVES TO THE SOUTH OF THE ALBANY
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROF
WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...ALONG WITH A WEAK
SURFACE LOW...AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...HAVE FORECAST THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO
INCREASE TO 35 TO 40 PERCENT IN ALL AREAS BY LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AND TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT ON THURSDAY. THERE ARE SOME MODELS
DIFFERENCES WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS HAS A MUCH STRONGER TROF AND
MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF PCPN. THE ECMWF TROF IS FAIRLY WEAK AND ONLY
SHOWS SCATTERED PCPN.

IT WILL REMAIN MILD ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE 35 TO 45. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN
THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 60. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S. HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXCEPT FOR LINGERING IFR FOG CONDITIONS TO START THE TAF PERIOD AT
KPSF...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF TAF
SITES THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z SATURDAY. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE CLOUD DECK MAY LOWER TO
MVFR LEVELS LATE TONIGHT AT KPOU AND KPSF. OTHERWISE EXPECT MOST OF
THE TAF PERIOD TO FEATURE A BKN/OVC CLOUD DECK BETWEEN 4000 AND 5000
FEET FROM THIS AFTN INTO TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO START...THEN BECOME
EASTERLY AT AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS LATER THIS MORNING...THEN BECOME
NORTHERLY AT AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. RH
VALUES WILL GENERALLY AROUND OR GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...ESPECIALLY
AT NIGHT WHEN VALUES WILL 75-90 PERCENT.

TODAY WILL START WITH FILTERED SUNSHINE FOLLOWED BY INCREASING
CLOUDS. IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY. SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS. SOME OF THESE WILL
BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT. ANY REAL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE UP TO A
COUPLE OF INCHES COULD COLLECT IN A FEW SPOTS.

THE WIND WILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE WIND WILL
TURN NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH.

ON SUNDAY...SUNSHINE RETURNS BUT IT WILL BE WINDY AND COLD WITH
GUSTS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST 30 MPH OR HIGHER. IT WILL BE COLD THAT
DAY AS WELL. RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE 30S VALLEYS...AND 40S
MOUNTAINS.

DRY WEATHER WILL HOLD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY..BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRODUCES SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

ANY PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE LIGHT...AND BASIN
AVERAGE AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY. SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL ACTUALLY FALL AS LIGHT
SNOW.

DRY WEATHER SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NO BIG
PRECIPITATION MAKERS IN SIGHT.

RIVER LEVELS WILL HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/NAS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV








000
FXUS61 KBOX 311146
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
746 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. A DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM
WILL MOVE UP THE COAST SATURDAY AND PASS OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. ONE OR TWO COLD FRONTS MAY CROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
745 AM UPDATE...

ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AREA OF LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
AREAS AT 07Z...THOUGH NOTING SOME CLEARING ACROSS THE CT VALLEY AS
WELL AS ALONG THE S COAST ON LATEST IR SATELLITE LOOP. NAM AND GFS
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATING THAT THE 5-6KFT CEILINGS MAY BREAK UP
BRIEFLY AROUND MID TO LATE MORNING BEFORE REDEVELOPING AS NE WINDS
BRING IN INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DURING THE AFTERNOON...
AGAIN ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS.

LOW PRES MOVES SE OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES...THEN SECONDARY
DEVELOPMENT BEGINS OFF THE MID ATLC COAST. LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE
DEEP MOISTURE WITH THE CYCLOGENESIS WILL REMAIN S OF THE REGION SO
HAVE KEPT A DRY FORECAST GOING. MAY SEE SOME SPRINKLES AND PATCHY
DRIZZLE DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY ALONG THE E COAST...BUT NOT ENOUGH
TO MENTION AT THIS POINT.

EXPECT TEMPS TO ONLY RISE TO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER
INLAND TERRAIN...THEN MAINLY IN THE 50S ELSEWHERE WITH THE
FRESHENING E-NE WINDS ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...SHORT RANGE MODELS APPEAR TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF NOT ONE BUT TWO CENTERS OF LOW PRES AS H5 LONG
WAVE TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE SE U.S. NOTING TWO STRONG UPPER LEVEL
JETS MOVING AROUND THE BASE OF THIS DIGGING TROUGH...THE FIRST
90-100 KT H3 JET AXIS WORKS NE OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL HELP
INTENSIFY THE FIRST LOW OFF THE MID ATLC COAST AROUND 12Z SAT.

AREA OF RAIN WILL WORK STEADILY NORTHWARD...ESPECIALLY AROUND OR
AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL ALSO SEE NE WINDS INCREASE ALONG THE COAST
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KT...HIGHEST ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE COD
AND THE ISLANDS. BEST SHOT FOR PRECIP WILL BE ACROSS RI/E MA.

EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S OVER SW NH TO
BETWEEN 45 AND 50 ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...
DEEP AMPLITUDE TROUGHS ON BOTH COASTS SATURDAY WITH A RIDGE IN
BETWEEN. SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN TROUGH GENERATES A
CUTOFF UPPER LOW WITH TWO JET STREAMS...A NORTHERN STREAM ALONG
THE CANADIAN BORDER AND A SOUTHERN STREAM MOVING WITH THE SHORT
WAVE. THE PATTERN SHIFTS EAST DURING THE WEEK WITH THE RIDGE
BUILDING OVER NEW ENGLAND. THE PATTERN THEN TRANSFORMS TO A MORE
ZONAL FLOW. REMAINS OF THE PACIFIC COAST TROUGH MOVE ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND MIDWEEK.

COLDER THAN NORMAL HEIGHTS WITH THE EASTERN TROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
HEIGHTS INCREASE TO NORMAL OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL BY MIDWEEK.
THIS POINTS TO A COLDER THAN NORMAL WEEKEND...TRENDING TO NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY MIDWEEK.

31/00Z GUIDANCE SUITE REMAINS IN DECENT OVERALL AGREEMENT. THERE
ALSO REMAIN SOME DIFFERENCES WITH TRACK...INTENSITY AND TIMING. AT
THIS POINT IT APPEARS SNOWFALL IS MOSTLY OFF THE TABLE AWAY FROM A
VERY BRIEF PERIOD LATE SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
EVEN THEN...IT WILL NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH. FAVORED A BLEND TO SMOOTH
OVER SOME OF THE MORE MINOR DIFFERENCES. THIS RESULTED IN VERY
GOOD CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THE DAILIES...

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...
COASTAL STORM CONTINUES TO BE INDICATED FOR SATURDAY AND EARLY
SUNDAY. SUPPORT COMES FROM TWO SETS OF FORCING MECHANISMS...
SUGGESTING A TWO-PART EVENT. INITIAL FORCING COMES FROM RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF NORTHERN STREAM JET SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
SEND A COASTAL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PAST SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.

THE SECOND FORCING COMES FROM LEFT EXIT REGION OF JET SUPPORTING
A POTENT SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE EASTERN TROUGH LATE
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. EVEN SO...MOST OF THE FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING WITH EACH SEGMENT IS FOCUSED OFFSHORE INTO THE MARITIMES
AND MAINE. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS FORCING SHOULD EXTEND INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH THE FIRST...AND POSSIBLY THE SECOND...OF
THE SEGMENTS. WE EXPECT RAIN SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
HIGHEST POPS OVER CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS...LESSER VALUES NORTH
AND WEST.

STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE AND A 50 KNOT LOW LEVEL
JET WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WINDY CONDITIONS. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL
BE OVER THE EASTERN/SOUTHEAST WATERS. STRONGEST LAND WINDS WILL BE
OVER THE OUTER CAPE AND ISLANDS...DIMINISHING FARTHER WEST. HAVE
FEATURED 45 KNOTS FOR THE STRONGEST WINDS AND 20-25 KNOTS IN THE
INTERIOR.

A COASTAL STORM WILL PASS US IN PIECES SATURDAY AND LATER
SATURDAY NIGHT...AS NOTED ABOVE. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO DIMINISH
WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND END ON THE MA EAST COAST AFTER
SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH MOST OF THIS STORM SHOULD REMAIN FAVORABLE
FOR ALL RAIN. AS THE WINDS SHIFT FROM NORTHEAST TO NORTHWEST
SATURDAY NIGHT...COLDER AIR WILL BE DRAWN IN WHICH COULD CHANGE
THE LAST SHOWERS OVER TO SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ANY
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD NOT BE MUCH MORE THAN A TRACE...WHERE IT
SNOWS AT ALL.

DRIER AIR SUNDAY WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES. COLD ADVECTION WILL
PROMOTE MIXING THROUGH AT LEAST 850 MB. WINDS IN THIS LAYER WILL
BE 35 TO 40 KNOTS...SO EXPECT NORTHWEST GUSTS TO AT LEAST THE
LOWER END OF THIS RANGE. WINDS DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE STORM
MOVES FARTHER AWAY.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. MONDAY SHOULD BE SUNNY AS
THIS HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD. MIXING WILL AGAIN BRING INCREASED WIND
GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS IN THE MIXED LAYER ARE EXPECTED
AROUND 30 KNOTS WITH POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE STRONGER SPEEDS. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH WITH SUNSET.

THIS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TUESDAY. THIS WILL MAKE ROOM
FOR A WARM FRONT TO SWING PAST. SUFFICIENT LIFT AND MOISTURE TO
SUPPORT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...BUT THE BEST WARM FRONTAL LIFT WILL
REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AND WEST SO EXPECT AT LEAST SOME SUN THROUGH
THE DAY.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...
LOW CONFIDENCE ON MIDWEEK WEATHER. AT LEAST ONE TROUGH IN THE
ZONAL FLOW WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS TIME. GFS AND
ECMWF ARE HINTING AT ONE ON WEDNESDAY...BUT SHOWING A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH PASSING ON THURSDAY. THE FORECAST WILL HAVE
CLOUDS AND LOW-END CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. ANY LEFTOVER IFR CIGS IN PATCHY FOG
WILL IMPROVE BY 13Z.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE THROUGH THE
NIGHT TO MVFR-IFR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WITH LOWEST CONDITIONS ALONG
THE COAST. EXPECT LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE S COAST AND INTO SE MA
AROUND OR AFTER MIDNIGHT...MOVING INTO THE REMAINDER MOST OF THE
REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...IFR CIGS AND MVFR OR IFR VSBYS IN PERIODS OF RAIN
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. VFR AND DRIER WEATHER MOVE IN FROM WEST
TO EAST EARLY SUNDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS SATURDAY GUSTING 35-45 KNOTS
ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS AND 25-35 KNOTS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN.
WINDS SHIFT TO NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND NORTHWEST SUNDAY. GUSTS 40-
45 KNOTS ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS...WITH 25-35 KNOTS ELSEWHERE ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

MONDAY...VFR. DAYTIME WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KNOTS
INLAND AND 35 KNOTS CAPE AND ISLANDS...DIMINISHING TOWARD EVENING.

TUESDAY...VFR WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. WINDS
WILL VEER TO E-NE DURING THE DAY AND BEGIN TO PICK UP. GUSTS UP TO
20 KT REACH THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS BY LATE IN THE DAY. SEAS
REMAIN BELOW 5 FT.

TONIGHT...E-NE WINDS INCREASE WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KT. SMALL
CRAFTS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE WATERS...BUT NOT QUITE
THERE FOR BOSTON HARBOR AND MASS/IPSWICH BAYS. SEAS WILL ALSO
BUILD ESPECIALLY ON THE SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS DURING THE NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY...STRONG POTENTIAL FOR HIGH END GALES...WITH LOW
POTENTIAL FOR STORM FORCE WINDS. ON THE OUTER WATERS...EXPECT
GUSTS TO AT LEAST 45 KNOTS.

EXPECT RAIN WITH INCREASING NORTHEAST WINDS. GALE FORCE GUSTS
EXPECTED ON MOST OF THE WATERS. RIGHT ON THE EDGE OF GALE FORCE
WINDS IN BOSTON HARBOR AND NARRAGANSETT BAY. GALE WATCHES POSTED
FOR ALL WATERS. KEPT IT SIMPLE FOR NOW...BUT WILL DEFINITELY NEED
TO REFINE THE TIMING FOR THE NEAR SHORE WATERS WITH LATER
FORECASTS.

SUNDAY...RAIN MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. WINDS SHIFT NORTHWEST WITH
GALE FORCE GUSTS UP TO 45 KNOTS. EXPECTING THESE WINDS TO DIMINISH
BELOW GALE FORCE SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH THE WIND SHIFT...ROUGH SEAS
WILL TRANSITION FARTHER OFFSHORE WITH DIMINISHING SEAS CLOSER TO
SHORE. GALE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

MONDAY...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WITH WIND GUSTS APPROACHING GALE
FORCE AGAIN DURING THE DAY. WINDS DIMINISH TOWARD EVENING. SEAS
WILL LINGER AT 5-9 FEET...ESPECIALLY ON THE OUTER WATERS. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IS LIKELY...LOW END CHANCE THAT GALES MAY BE NEEDED
ON SOME OF THE WATERS.

TUESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES ARE RATHER LOW SATURDAY EVENING AND AGAIN
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND HIGH
SEAS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO RESULT IN MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
AND BEACH EROSION ALONG THE EASTERN MA COAST...PARTICULARLY THE
NORTH SIDE OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET HARBOR DURING BOTH HIGH TIDE
CYCLES.

THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY REVOLVES AROUND WHEN AND HOW STRONG THE
WINDS/SEAS WILL GET. THE MODELS SEEM TO BE SHOWING TWO PULSES OF
WIND WITH TWO WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE. THE FIRST ONE APPEARS TO BE
SATURDAY EVENING WITH THE SECOND ONE SUNDAY MORNING. THE POTENTIAL
CONTINUES FOR WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 KNOTS AND SEAS BUILDING TO 20
FEET ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS EAST OF MASSACHUSETTS. WILL HAVE TO
WAIT AND SEE HOW THE MODELS TREND...BUT STILL FEEL BOTH HIGH TIDE
CYCLES ARE AT RISK WITH A 1 TO 2 FOOT STORM SURGE.

AREAS OF GREATEST CONCERN APPEAR TO BE THE NORTH SIDE OF CAPE
COD...SUCH AS SANDWICH...BARNSTABLE...DENNIS...BREWSTER AND
POSSIBLY EASTHAM. OTHER TYPICAL HOT SPOTS WILL BE SALISBURY AND
PLUM ISLAND...HULL...SCITUATE AND PERHAPS SANDWICH HARBOR AND
NANTUCKET HARBOR. AGAIN...THE MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING AS WELL AS BEACH EROSION.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ231>234-250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ235-237-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...BELK/EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...STAFF




000
FXUS61 KOKX 311144
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
744 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TODAY...THEN TRACKS
NORTHEAST TO A POSITION SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD BY SATURDAY EVENING.
MEANWHILE...ANOTHER COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
LATE SATURDAY...THEN TRACKS NORTHEAST TO THE CANADIAN MARITIME
PROVINCES BY SUNDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS
STORM INTO TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL PASS TO THE NORTH ON
TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A SERIES OF FAST MOVING COLD FRONTS
DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ALREADY HAVE A 1010 HPA LOW OFF THE NC COAST AT 7Z. A 700 HPA
SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY OVER N CENTRAL GA...ROUNDING THE BASE OF A
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH WILL INTERACT WITH THIS LOW AND HAVE IT TRACK
SLOWLY NE AND DEEPEN THROUGH THE DAY. MEANWHILE...A NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY CURRENTLY...WILL WORK
TO FORM AN INVERTED TROUGH TO THE N-NW OF THIS LOW BY THIS
AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN HAVING AN AREA OF ISOLD-
SCT SHRA TRACK WNW FROM OFF THE S FORK OF LONG ISLAND BACK TOWARDS
SW CT THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR THIS - AS
COVERAGE LIKELY WILL BE QUITE THIN AND INTENSITY QUITE LIGHT.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT INCREASING CLOUD COVER TODAY FROM THE
COMBINATION OF MOISTURE BEING TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION NEAR 850
MB AND HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTH.

FOR HIGHS TODAY...USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND MIXING DOWN FROM 875 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ALL MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN TAKING A DEVELOPING CUTOFF LOW DOWN
INTO THE CAROLINAS BY SATURDAY MORNING...THEN LIFTING IT EAST THEN
NORTHEAST AS IT OPENS TO NEAR/OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE RESULT WILL BE SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN BECOMING LIKELY BY LATE
TONIGHT ACROSS ROUGHLY THE S 1/2 OF THE CWA AND A CHANCE OF LIGHT
RAIN N. THE SPOTTY RAIN WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY...BECOMING MORE
PERIODIC BY AFTERNOON OVER THE S 1/2 OF THE CWA. PRECIPITATION
THEN TAPERS OFF FROM NW TO SE AS THE SURFACE LOW EXITS WELL TO THE
NE SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW IT APPEARS THAT IN MOST AREAS...THE
PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END BEFORE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL COLD AIR
COMES IN TO CAUSE ANY MIXING WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW. A POSSIBLE
EXCEPTION COULD BE ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1000-1500 FT ACROSS MAINLY
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF S CT...WHERE THE COLD AIR MIGHT ARRIVE IN
TIME TO CAUSE A FEW FLAKES OF SNOW TO MIX IN...IF NOT BRIEFLY
CHANGE TO ALL SNOW...BEFORE ENDING. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS EVEN
AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS THAT THERE WILL BE LITTLE IF ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION FROM THIS SYSTEM.

THE MAIN THREAT FROM THIS SYSTEM IS STRONG GUSTY WINDS. WINDS
SHOULD GUSTS TO UP TO 30-35 MPH BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND 25-30 MPH OVER WESTERN PORTIONS. AS THE
STORM CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AS IT PULLS AWAY THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH OVER MAINLY S CT/LONG ISLAND
AND POSSIBLY NYC/FAR E PORTIONS OF NE NJ SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW
FORECASTING WINDS TO REMAIN JUST UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA.
HOWEVER...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A WIND ADVISORY WAS ULTIMATELY
NEEDED FOR AT LEAST E SUFFOLK COUNTY AND SE CT. THIS IS HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW - BUT BASED
ON LATEST GUIDANCE IT APPEARS THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CWA.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT:
FOR LOWS TONIGHT USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES...EXPECT VALUES TO BE AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

A BLEND OF ECS/MET/MAV GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND
A MIX DOWN FROM 950 HPA NEAR THE COAST AND 925 HPA INLAND...PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...WAS USED FOR HIGHS ON SATURDAY. READINGS SHOULD
BE AROUND 5 TO MAYBE 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT...A BLEND OF NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES WITH
MAV/MET GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR LOWS...WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM ON SUNDAY...AND
THE RESULTING TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUSTAIN WINDY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE DAYTIME BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING SUNDAY
NIGHT. FORECAST BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS COULD SUPPORT ADVISORY CRITERIA
WIND GUSTS DURING THE DAY...PARTICULARLY FOR THE COASTAL AREAS. SOME
SPOTS COULD EVEN REACH CRITERIA BASED ON SUSTAINED WINDS. ASIDE FROM
THIS...PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH BELOW NORMAL
HIGHS. WIND CHILLS AT DAYBREAK WILL BE AROUND 30 DEGREES.

HIGH PRESSURE THEN CONTINUES TO BUILD IN ON MONDAY AND MOVES
OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY. DRY BOTH DAYS WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES.

FOR WEDNESDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES...BUT IS MOISTURE
STARVED. JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS NORTH OF THE CITY. A
STRONGER COLD FRONT THEN FOLLOWS...AND IS PROGGED TO PASS THROUGH
SOMETIME THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT. POPS EVENTUALLY CLIMB INTO
THE CHANCE CATEGORY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS
FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST
...PASSING SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD SATURDAY EVENING. ANOTHER LOW IS FORECAST
TO DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE SATURDAY AND TRACK ACROSS THE
CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES SUNDAY EVENING.

WINDS...N LESS THAN 10 KT...BECOMING ENE NEAR 10 KT BY 15Z...THEN
NE INCREASING TO NEAR 15 KT WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KT AFT 06Z SAT ALONG
THE COAST AND 20-25 KT WITH GUSTS OF 30-35 KT SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

CLOUDS...VFR CIGS 4 THSD- 5 THSD FT. MVFR CIGS FORECAST MAINLY
AFTER SUNSET...WITHIN 2 HOURS OF FORECAST TIME.

LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST MAINLY 18Z - 21Z.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING THE DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN AND MVFR CIGS
WITHIN 2 HOURS EITHER SIDE OF FORECAST.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING THE DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN AND MVFR CIGS
WITHIN 2 HOURS EITHER SIDE OF FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING THE DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN AND MVFR CIGS
WITHIN 2 HOURS EITHER SIDE OF FORECAST.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING THE DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN AND MVFR CIGS
WITHIN 2 HOURS EITHER SIDE OF FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING THE DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN AND MVFR CIGS
WITHIN 2 HOURS EITHER SIDE OF FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING THE DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN AND MVFR CIGS
WITHIN 2 HOURS EITHER SIDE OF FORECAST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.TONIGHT-SAT NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER IN RAIN. NE-N WINDS 20-25G30-35KT.
.SUNDAY...VFR. NW WINDS 20-25G30-35KT.
.MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS SHOULD KEEP WINDS TO
AROUND 15 KT OR LESS TODAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS TONIGHT
IN RESPONSE TO A STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING TO THE S AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE SW...THIS SHOULD BRING GUSTS TO 25-30
KT TO ALL WATERS TONIGHT...SO HAVE CONTINUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THEN. THE HIGH MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA SATURDAY-
SUNDAY...AND A SERIES OF STRENGTHENING COASTAL LOWS RESULT IN A
CONTINUING TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS.
THIS LIKELY WILL RESULT IN GUSTS TO GALE FORCE OVER ALL WATERS
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...WITH WIND GUSTS INCREASING TO 40-45
KT SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH THESE GUSTS INTO SUNDAY. SEAS WILL BUILD
AS A RESULT TO 5-9 FT ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS AND 3-5 FT ON
THE EASTERN SOUND BY SATURDAY NIGHT.

N-NW GALES CONTINUE ON ALL WATERS DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...THEN
WINDS START TO DIMINISH AT NIGHT. BY MONDAY MORNING...ALL WATERS
SHOULD BE BELOW GALE FORCE GUSTS...HOWEVER SCA CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY PREVAIL ACROSS THE OCEAN AND EASTERN WATERS THROUGH A GOOD
PORTION OF THE DAY. LOOKS LIKE IT WILL TAKE UNTIL LATE MONDAY NIGHT
FOR SUB-SCA CONDITIONS TO REACH ALL OF THE WATERS WHEN A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE REACHES THE EASTERN SEABOARD  A RETURN WSW FLOW FOR
TUESDAY SHOULD REMAIN ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY THROUGH THIS MORNING...THEN LIGHT PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS INTO
TONIGHT. A MORE STEADY/LIGHT-MODERATE RAIN IS FORECAST FROM
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT - WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER S/E
AREAS. FOR NOW FORECASTING TOTAL RAINFALL FROM FRIDAY NIGHT-
SATURDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM A TENTH AN INCH OVER ORANGE COUNTY TO
A HALF AND INCH TO MAYBE AN INCH OVER SE CT/E SUFFOLK COUNTY.
GIVEN THE EXPECTED DURATION OF PRECIPITATION OF 24+HOURS...NO
SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC IMPACT IS ANTICIPATED FROM THIS SYSTEM AT
THIS TIME.

NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...GC
MARINE...JC/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...JC/MALOIT









000
FXUS61 KALY 311052
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
652 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A POTENT SYSTEM WORKING OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WILL DIVE TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT AND PHASE WITH ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE OFFSHORE. THE NET RESULT OF THIS WILL BE ONLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS...TURNING TO SNOW
SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. A POWERFUL STORM
OFFSHORE WILL DRIVE THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON OVER US BY
SUNDAY ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 530 AM EDT...AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND EVEN SOME PATCHY FOG HAVE
DEVELOPED. TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S WITH
LITTLE OR NO WIND.

THROUGH SUNRISE...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY NOT FALL ALL THAT MUCH
MORE...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 20S OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION. THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT.

FILTERED SUNSHINE WILL START THE DAY OUT TODAY...WITH A GENERAL
INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS...EXCEPT MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS SOUTHERN
VERMONT.

THE H20 WATER LOOP DEPICTED TWO DISTURBANCE TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST
RESPECTIVELY. THE ONE TO OUR SOUTH WAS GENERATING THUNDERSTORMS OFF
THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. MEANWHILE THE STRONG ONE WAS IRONICALLY
LIGHTER PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS ACROSS MICHIGAN. THE
SECOND STORM HAD MUCH LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.

THE IMPULSE TO OUR SOUTH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM OUR
REGION. THE OTHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE TO OUR SOUTH. A WEAK AREA OF
ASCENT WILL DEVELOP BY LATE IN THE DAY...BUT DUE TO A DRY ATMOSPHERE
VERY LITTLE IF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TODAY.

DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND LIMITED MIXING...TEMPERATURES WILL RUN A
SHADE COOLER THAN NORMAL. LOOK FOR HIGHS 50-55 IN THE
VALLEYS...45-50 HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTH UNDER 10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DIVE FURTHER
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND EVENTUALLY PHASE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
SYSTEM OFFSHORE. THE DEEP MOISTURE (WITH PWATS OVER AN INCH) LOOKS
TO REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE. CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS INCREASING
AS THE 00Z EUROPEAN/CANADIAN AND THE GFS (AND ITS ALL ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS) INDICATE A SIMILAR SCENARIO KEEPING THE OCEAN STORM AND
MOST OF ITS PRECIPITATION TO OUR EAST.

WHAT THIS WILL MEAN FOR US IN ONLY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
TONIGHT...BUT EVEN MOST OF THESE SHOULD HOLD OFF LATE ENOUGH TO NOT
IMPACT ALL THE TRICK OR TREATERS. IT MIGHT BE MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH
FOR A SNOW FLAKES IN THE ADIRONDACK BUT ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE
EXTREMELY MINOR AT THE FREEZING LEVEL LOOKS TO REMAIN ABOVE 3000
FEET AND THE PRECIPITATION LIGHT.

SATURDAY...AS PHASING COMMENCES WELL TO OUR SOUTHEAST...IT WILL
REMAIN OVERCAST WITH PERHAPS A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. AGAIN THESE
WILL BE LIGHT AND IN MOST CASES...RAIN...WITH ANY SNOW SHOWERS
CONFINED TO THE HIGHEST TERRAIN.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT...A POWERFUL OCEAN STORM WILL BE OFF CAPE COD. IT
LOOKS AS IF ITS HEAVY BANDS OF PRECIPITATION (BOTH THE WARM AND COLD
CONVEYOR BELTS AND ASSOCIATED BANDING) WILL STAY TO OUR EAST. LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ON ITS OUTER EDGE WILL SKIM MAINLY OUR EASTERN
TERRAIN...BUT A FEW OF THESE COULD WORK INTO THE HUDSON VALLEY AND
POINTS EAST. BY THIS TIME...H850 TEMPERATURES WILL DIP WELL BELOW
ZERO EVERYWHERE AND FREEZING LEVELS WILL EVENTUALLY CLOSE TO THE
GROUND. THEREFORE...MOST OF WHAT FALL SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE
SNOW...BUT THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH OF IT. A COATING TO A COUPLE OF
INCHES IS POSSIBLE (BUT NOT CERTAIN) OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
WHILE A DUSTING CANNOT BE RULED EVEN ON THE VALLEY FLOORS...IT
APPEARS UNLIKELY.

TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S IN THE
VALLEYS...20S HIGHER TERRAIN. A GUSTY WIND UP TO 30 MPH WILL ADD TO
THE CHILL.

SUNDAY...ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...LOOK TO BE GONE BY AFTERNOON. IN FACT...CLOUDS LOOK TO
GIVE WAY TO INCREASING SUNSHINE. NEVERTHELESS IT WILL BE A DOWNRIGHT
COLD AND WINDY DAY WITH HIGHS NO BETTER THAN MID OR UPPER 40S IN THE
VALLEYS...MID 30S TO LOWER 40S HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH GOOD
MIXING...NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS COULD REACH 30-35 MPH OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION.

THE WIND WILL SLOWLY ABATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTH OF REGION...BUT NOT COMPLETELY. ASSUMING THE SKY REMAINS
MOSTLY CLEAR (WHICH WE THINK IT WILL) TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DIVE INTO
THE 20S ACROSS MOST AREAS...UPPER 20S VALLEYS AND LOWER TO MID 20S
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A QUIET START TO THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKE CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THESE
TWO DAYS. A WEAK WARM FRONT PASSING WELL TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA MAY PRODUCE AN ISOLATED SHOWER ON TUESDAY ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A SLOW INCREASE IN CLOUDS ON TUESDAY. AFTER A
CHILLY START IN THE 20S...HIGHS MONDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S
TO LOWER 50S. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. HIGHS
TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...AND MOVE
THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS INDICATE A LOT OF THE PCPN ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE POST-FRONTAL. HAVE FORECAST POPS TO INCREASE
BY WEDNESDAY TO SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE SOUTHEAST ZONES...RANGING UP
TO 40 PERCENT OVER THE NORTHWEST.

THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT AFTER IT MOVES TO THE SOUTH OF THE ALBANY
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROF
WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...ALONG WITH A WEAK
SURFACE LOW...AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...HAVE FORECAST THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO
INCREASE TO 35 TO 40 PERCENT IN ALL AREAS BY LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AND TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT ON THURSDAY. THERE ARE SOME MODELS
DIFFERENCES WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS HAS A MUCH STRONGER TROF AND
MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF PCPN. THE ECMWF TROF IS FAIRLY WEAK AND ONLY
SHOWS SCATTERED PCPN.

IT WILL REMAIN MILD ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE 35 TO 45. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN
THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 60. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S. HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXCEPT FOR LINGERING IFR FOG CONDITIONS TO START THE TAF PERIOD AT
KPSF...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF TAF
SITES THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z SATURDAY. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE CLOUD DECK MAY LOWER TO
MVFR LEVELS LATE TONIGHT AT KPOU AND KPSF. OTHERWISE EXPECT MOST OF
THE TAF PERIOD TO FEATURE A BKN/OVC CLOUD DECK BETWEEN 4000 AND 5000
FEET FROM THIS AFTN INTO TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO START...THEN BECOME
EASTERLY AT AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS LATER THIS MORNING...THEN BECOME
NORTHERLY AT AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. RH
VALUES WILL GENERALLY AROUND OR GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...ESPECIALLY
AT NIGHT WHEN VALUES WILL 75-90 PERCENT.

TODAY WILL START WITH FILTERED SUNSHINE FOLLOWED BY INCREASING
CLOUDS. IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY. SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS. SOME OF THESE WILL
BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT. ANY REAL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE UP TO A
COUPLE OF INCHES COULD COLLECT IN A FEW SPOTS.

THE WIND WILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE WIND WILL
TURN NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH.

ON SUNDAY...SUNSHINE RETURNS BUT IT WILL BE WINDY AND COLD WITH
GUSTS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST 30 MPH OR HIGHER. IT WILL BE COLD THAT
DAY AS WELL. RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE 30S VALLEYS...AND 40S
MOUNTAINS.

DRY WEATHER WILL HOLD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY..BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRODUCES SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

ANY PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE LIGHT...AND BASIN
AVERAGE AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY. SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL ACTUALLY FALL AS LIGHT
SNOW.

DRY WEATHER SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NO BIG
PRECIPITATION MAKERS IN SIGHT.

RIVER LEVELS WILL HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV













000
FXUS61 KALY 311052
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
652 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A POTENT SYSTEM WORKING OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WILL DIVE TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT AND PHASE WITH ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE OFFSHORE. THE NET RESULT OF THIS WILL BE ONLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS...TURNING TO SNOW
SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. A POWERFUL STORM
OFFSHORE WILL DRIVE THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON OVER US BY
SUNDAY ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 530 AM EDT...AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND EVEN SOME PATCHY FOG HAVE
DEVELOPED. TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S WITH
LITTLE OR NO WIND.

THROUGH SUNRISE...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY NOT FALL ALL THAT MUCH
MORE...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 20S OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION. THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT.

FILTERED SUNSHINE WILL START THE DAY OUT TODAY...WITH A GENERAL
INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS...EXCEPT MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS SOUTHERN
VERMONT.

THE H20 WATER LOOP DEPICTED TWO DISTURBANCE TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST
RESPECTIVELY. THE ONE TO OUR SOUTH WAS GENERATING THUNDERSTORMS OFF
THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. MEANWHILE THE STRONG ONE WAS IRONICALLY
LIGHTER PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS ACROSS MICHIGAN. THE
SECOND STORM HAD MUCH LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.

THE IMPULSE TO OUR SOUTH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM OUR
REGION. THE OTHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE TO OUR SOUTH. A WEAK AREA OF
ASCENT WILL DEVELOP BY LATE IN THE DAY...BUT DUE TO A DRY ATMOSPHERE
VERY LITTLE IF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TODAY.

DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND LIMITED MIXING...TEMPERATURES WILL RUN A
SHADE COOLER THAN NORMAL. LOOK FOR HIGHS 50-55 IN THE
VALLEYS...45-50 HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTH UNDER 10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DIVE FURTHER
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND EVENTUALLY PHASE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
SYSTEM OFFSHORE. THE DEEP MOISTURE (WITH PWATS OVER AN INCH) LOOKS
TO REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE. CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS INCREASING
AS THE 00Z EUROPEAN/CANADIAN AND THE GFS (AND ITS ALL ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS) INDICATE A SIMILAR SCENARIO KEEPING THE OCEAN STORM AND
MOST OF ITS PRECIPITATION TO OUR EAST.

WHAT THIS WILL MEAN FOR US IN ONLY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
TONIGHT...BUT EVEN MOST OF THESE SHOULD HOLD OFF LATE ENOUGH TO NOT
IMPACT ALL THE TRICK OR TREATERS. IT MIGHT BE MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH
FOR A SNOW FLAKES IN THE ADIRONDACK BUT ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE
EXTREMELY MINOR AT THE FREEZING LEVEL LOOKS TO REMAIN ABOVE 3000
FEET AND THE PRECIPITATION LIGHT.

SATURDAY...AS PHASING COMMENCES WELL TO OUR SOUTHEAST...IT WILL
REMAIN OVERCAST WITH PERHAPS A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. AGAIN THESE
WILL BE LIGHT AND IN MOST CASES...RAIN...WITH ANY SNOW SHOWERS
CONFINED TO THE HIGHEST TERRAIN.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT...A POWERFUL OCEAN STORM WILL BE OFF CAPE COD. IT
LOOKS AS IF ITS HEAVY BANDS OF PRECIPITATION (BOTH THE WARM AND COLD
CONVEYOR BELTS AND ASSOCIATED BANDING) WILL STAY TO OUR EAST. LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ON ITS OUTER EDGE WILL SKIM MAINLY OUR EASTERN
TERRAIN...BUT A FEW OF THESE COULD WORK INTO THE HUDSON VALLEY AND
POINTS EAST. BY THIS TIME...H850 TEMPERATURES WILL DIP WELL BELOW
ZERO EVERYWHERE AND FREEZING LEVELS WILL EVENTUALLY CLOSE TO THE
GROUND. THEREFORE...MOST OF WHAT FALL SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE
SNOW...BUT THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH OF IT. A COATING TO A COUPLE OF
INCHES IS POSSIBLE (BUT NOT CERTAIN) OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
WHILE A DUSTING CANNOT BE RULED EVEN ON THE VALLEY FLOORS...IT
APPEARS UNLIKELY.

TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S IN THE
VALLEYS...20S HIGHER TERRAIN. A GUSTY WIND UP TO 30 MPH WILL ADD TO
THE CHILL.

SUNDAY...ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...LOOK TO BE GONE BY AFTERNOON. IN FACT...CLOUDS LOOK TO
GIVE WAY TO INCREASING SUNSHINE. NEVERTHELESS IT WILL BE A DOWNRIGHT
COLD AND WINDY DAY WITH HIGHS NO BETTER THAN MID OR UPPER 40S IN THE
VALLEYS...MID 30S TO LOWER 40S HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH GOOD
MIXING...NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS COULD REACH 30-35 MPH OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION.

THE WIND WILL SLOWLY ABATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTH OF REGION...BUT NOT COMPLETELY. ASSUMING THE SKY REMAINS
MOSTLY CLEAR (WHICH WE THINK IT WILL) TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DIVE INTO
THE 20S ACROSS MOST AREAS...UPPER 20S VALLEYS AND LOWER TO MID 20S
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A QUIET START TO THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKE CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THESE
TWO DAYS. A WEAK WARM FRONT PASSING WELL TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA MAY PRODUCE AN ISOLATED SHOWER ON TUESDAY ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A SLOW INCREASE IN CLOUDS ON TUESDAY. AFTER A
CHILLY START IN THE 20S...HIGHS MONDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S
TO LOWER 50S. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. HIGHS
TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...AND MOVE
THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS INDICATE A LOT OF THE PCPN ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE POST-FRONTAL. HAVE FORECAST POPS TO INCREASE
BY WEDNESDAY TO SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE SOUTHEAST ZONES...RANGING UP
TO 40 PERCENT OVER THE NORTHWEST.

THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT AFTER IT MOVES TO THE SOUTH OF THE ALBANY
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROF
WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...ALONG WITH A WEAK
SURFACE LOW...AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...HAVE FORECAST THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO
INCREASE TO 35 TO 40 PERCENT IN ALL AREAS BY LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AND TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT ON THURSDAY. THERE ARE SOME MODELS
DIFFERENCES WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS HAS A MUCH STRONGER TROF AND
MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF PCPN. THE ECMWF TROF IS FAIRLY WEAK AND ONLY
SHOWS SCATTERED PCPN.

IT WILL REMAIN MILD ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE 35 TO 45. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN
THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 60. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S. HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXCEPT FOR LINGERING IFR FOG CONDITIONS TO START THE TAF PERIOD AT
KPSF...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF TAF
SITES THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z SATURDAY. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE CLOUD DECK MAY LOWER TO
MVFR LEVELS LATE TONIGHT AT KPOU AND KPSF. OTHERWISE EXPECT MOST OF
THE TAF PERIOD TO FEATURE A BKN/OVC CLOUD DECK BETWEEN 4000 AND 5000
FEET FROM THIS AFTN INTO TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO START...THEN BECOME
EASTERLY AT AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS LATER THIS MORNING...THEN BECOME
NORTHERLY AT AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. RH
VALUES WILL GENERALLY AROUND OR GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...ESPECIALLY
AT NIGHT WHEN VALUES WILL 75-90 PERCENT.

TODAY WILL START WITH FILTERED SUNSHINE FOLLOWED BY INCREASING
CLOUDS. IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY. SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS. SOME OF THESE WILL
BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT. ANY REAL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE UP TO A
COUPLE OF INCHES COULD COLLECT IN A FEW SPOTS.

THE WIND WILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE WIND WILL
TURN NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH.

ON SUNDAY...SUNSHINE RETURNS BUT IT WILL BE WINDY AND COLD WITH
GUSTS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST 30 MPH OR HIGHER. IT WILL BE COLD THAT
DAY AS WELL. RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE 30S VALLEYS...AND 40S
MOUNTAINS.

DRY WEATHER WILL HOLD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY..BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRODUCES SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

ANY PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE LIGHT...AND BASIN
AVERAGE AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY. SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL ACTUALLY FALL AS LIGHT
SNOW.

DRY WEATHER SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NO BIG
PRECIPITATION MAKERS IN SIGHT.

RIVER LEVELS WILL HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV













000
FXUS61 KALY 310932
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
531 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A POTENT SYSTEM WORKING OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WILL DIVE TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT AND PHASE WITH ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE OFFSHORE. THE NET RESULT OF THIS WILL BE ONLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS...TURNING TO SNOW
SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. A POWERFUL STORM
OFFSHORE WILL DRIVE THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON OVER US BY
SUNDAY ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 530 AM EDT...AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND EVEN SOME PATCHY FOG HAVE
DEVELOPED. TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S WITH
LITTLE OR NO WIND.

THROUGH SUNRISE...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY NOT FALL ALL THAT MUCH
MORE...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 20S OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION. THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT.

FILTERED SUNSHINE WILL START THE DAY OUT TODAY...WITH A GENERAL
INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS...EXCEPT MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS SOUTHERN
VERMONT.

THE H20 WATER LOOP DEPICTED TWO DISTURBANCE TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST
RESPECTIVELY. THE ONE TO OUR SOUTH WAS GENERATING THUNDERSTORMS OFF
THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. MEANWHILE THE STRONG ONE WAS IRONICALLY
LIGHTER PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS ACROSS MICHIGAN. THE
SECOND STORM HAD MUCH LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.

THE IMPULSE TO OUR SOUTH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM OUR
REGION. THE OTHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE TO OUR SOUTH. A WEAK AREA OF
ASCENT WILL DEVELOP BY LATE IN THE DAY...BUT DUE TO A DRY ATMOSPHERE
VERY LITTLE IF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TODAY.

DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND LIMITED MIXING...TEMPERATURES WILL RUN A
SHADE COOLER THAN NORMAL. LOOK FOR HIGHS 50-55 IN THE
VALLEYS...45-50 HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTH UNDER 10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DIVE FURTHER
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND EVENTUALLY PHASE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
SYSTEM OFFSHORE. THE DEEP MOISTURE (WITH PWATS OVER AN INCH) LOOKS
TO REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE. CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS INCREASING
AS THE 00Z EUROPEAN/CANADIAN AND THE GFS (AND ITS ALL ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS) INDICATE A SIMILAR SCENARIO KEEPING THE OCEAN STORM AND
MOST OF ITS PRECIPITATION TO OUR EAST.

WHAT THIS WILL MEAN FOR US IN ONLY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
TONIGHT...BUT EVEN MOST OF THESE SHOULD HOLD OFF LATE ENOUGH TO NOT
IMPACT ALL THE TRICK OR TREATERS. IT MIGHT BE MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH
FOR A SNOW FLAKES IN THE ADIRONDACK BUT ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE
EXTREMELY MINOR AT THE FREEZING LEVEL LOOKS TO REMAIN ABOVE 3000
FEET AND THE PRECIPITATION LIGHT.

SATURDAY...AS PHASING COMMENCES WELL TO OUR SOUTHEAST...IT WILL
REMAIN OVERCAST WITH PERHAPS A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. AGAIN THESE
WILL BE LIGHT AND IN MOST CASES...RAIN...WITH ANY SNOW SHOWERS
CONFINED TO THE HIGHEST TERRAIN.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT...A POWERFUL OCEAN STORM WILL BE OFF CAPE COD. IT
LOOKS AS IF ITS HEAVY BANDS OF PRECIPITATION (BOTH THE WARM AND COLD
CONVEYOR BELTS AND ASSOCIATED BANDING) WILL STAY TO OUR EAST. LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ON ITS OUTER EDGE WILL SKIM MAINLY OUR EASTERN
TERRAIN...BUT A FEW OF THESE COULD WORK INTO THE HUDSON VALLEY AND
POINTS EAST. BY THIS TIME...H850 TEMPERATURES WILL DIP WELL BELOW
ZERO EVERYWHERE AND FREEZING LEVELS WILL EVENTUALLY CLOSE TO THE
GROUND. THEREFORE...MOST OF WHAT FALL SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE
SNOW...BUT THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH OF IT. A COATING TO A COUPLE OF
INCHES IS POSSIBLE (BUT NOT CERTAIN) OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
WHILE A DUSTING CANNOT BE RULED EVEN ON THE VALLEY FLOORS...IT
APPEARS UNLIKELY.

TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S IN THE
VALLEYS...20S HIGHER TERRAIN. A GUSTY WIND UP TO 30 MPH WILL ADD TO
THE CHILL.

SUNDAY...ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...LOOK TO BE GONE BY AFTERNOON. IN FACT...CLOUDS LOOK TO
GIVE WAY TO INCREASING SUNSHINE. NEVERTHELESS IT WILL BE A DOWNRIGHT
COLD AND WINDY DAY WITH HIGHS NO BETTER THAN MID OR UPPER 40S IN THE
VALLEYS...MID 30S TO LOWER 40S HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH GOOD
MIXING...NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS COULD REACH 30-35 MPH OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION.

THE WIND WILL SLOWLY ABATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTH OF REGION...BUT NOT COMPLETELY. ASSUMING THE SKY REMAINS
MOSTLY CLEAR (WHICH WE THINK IT WILL) TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DIVE INTO
THE 20S ACROSS MOST AREAS...UPPER 20S VALLEYS AND LOWER TO MID 20S
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A QUIET START TO THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKE CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THESE
TWO DAYS. A WEAK WARM FRONT PASSING WELL TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA MAY PRODUCE AN ISOLATED SHOWER ON TUESDAY ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A SLOW INCREASE IN CLOUDS ON TUESDAY. AFTER A
CHILLY START IN THE 20S...HIGHS MONDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S
TO LOWER 50S. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. HIGHS
TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...AND MOVE
THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS INDICATE A LOT OF THE PCPN ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE POST-FRONTAL. HAVE FORECAST POPS TO INCREASE
BY WEDNESDAY TO SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE SOUTHEAST ZONES...RANGING UP
TO 40 PERCENT OVER THE NORTHWEST.

THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT AFTER IT MOVES TO THE SOUTH OF THE ALBANY
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROF
WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...ALONG WITH A WEAK
SURFACE LOW...AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...HAVE FORECAST THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO
INCREASE TO 35 TO 40 PERCENT IN ALL AREAS BY LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AND TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT ON THURSDAY. THERE ARE SOME MODELS
DIFFERENCES WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS HAS A MUCH STRONGER TROF AND
MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF PCPN. THE ECMWF TROF IS FAIRLY WEAK AND ONLY
SHOWS SCATTERED PCPN.

IT WILL REMAIN MILD ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE 35 TO 45. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN
THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 60. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S. HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF
TAF SITES THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 06Z SATURDAY.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR FOG CONDITIONS AT
KGFL/KPSF FOR A FEW HOURS EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES TO START THE TAF PERIOD WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING
CLOUDS ON FRIDAY...WITH MAINLY A BKN/OVC DECK OF 4000 TO 5000 FEET
ACROSS THE REGION MOST OF FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH A COUPLE OF HOURS
AFTER SUNRISE...THEN EASTERLY AT 5 KTS OR LESS THEREAFTER.

OUTLOOK...
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. RH
VALUES WILL GENERALLY AROUND OR GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...ESPECIALLY
AT NIGHT WHEN VALUES WILL 75-90 PERCENT.

TODAY WILL START WITH FILTERED SUNSHINE FOLLOWED BY INCREASING
CLOUDS. IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY. SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS. SOME OF THESE WILL
BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT. ANY REAL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE UP TO A
COUPLE OF INCHES COULD COLLECT IN A FEW SPOTS.

THE WIND WILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE WIND WILL
TURN NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH.

ON SUNDAY...SUNSHINE RETURNS BUT IT WILL BE WINDY AND COLD WITH
GUSTS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST 30 MPH OR HIGHER. IT WILL BE COLD THAT
DAY AS WELL. RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE 30S VALLEYS...AND 40S
MOUNTAINS.

DRY WEATHER WILL HOLD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY..BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRODUCES SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

ANY PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE LIGHT...AND BASIN
AVERAGE AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY. SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL ACTUALLY FALL AS LIGHT
SNOW.

DRY WEATHER SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NO BIG
PRECIPITATION MAKERS IN SIGHT.

RIVER LEVELS WILL HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV










000
FXUS61 KOKX 310844
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
444 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TODAY...THEN TRACKS
NORTHEAST TO A POSITION SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD BY SATURDAY EVENING.
MEANWHILE...ANOTHER COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
LATE SATURDAY...THEN TRACKS NORTHEAST TO THE CANADIAN MARITIME
PROVINCES BY SUNDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS
STORM INTO TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL PASS TO THE NORTH ON
TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A SERIES OF FAST MOVING COLD FRONTS
DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ALREADY HAVE A 1010 HPA LOW OFF THE NC COAST AT 7Z. A 700 HPA
SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY OVER N CENTRAL GA...ROUNDING THE BASE OF A
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH WILL INTERACT WITH THIS LOW AND HAVE IT TRACK
SLOWLY NE AND DEEPEN THROUGH THE DAY. MEANWHILE...A NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY CURRENTLY...WILL WORK
TO FORM AN INVERTED TROUGH TO THE N-NW OF THIS LOW BY THIS
AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN HAVING AN AREA OF ISOLD-
SCT SHRA TRACK WNW FROM OFF THE S FORK OF LONG ISLAND BACK TOWARDS
SW CT THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR THIS - AS
COVERAGE LIKELY WILL BE QUITE THIN AND INTENSITY QUITE LIGHT.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT INCREASING CLOUD COVER TODAY...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH CLOUDS LOWERING AND THICKENING FROM SE
TO NW ACROSS THE CWA.

FOR HIGHS TODAY...USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND MIXING DOWN FROM 875 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ALL MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN TAKING A DEVELOPING CUTOFF LOW DOWN
INTO THE CAROLINAS BY SATURDAY MORNING...THEN LIFTING IT EAST THEN
NORTHEAST AS IT OPENS TO NEAR/OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE RESULT WILL BE SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN BECOMING LIKELY BY LATE
TONIGHT ACROSS ROUGHLY THE S 1/2 OF THE CWA AND A CHANCE OF LIGHT
RAIN N. THE SPOTTY RAIN WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY...BECOMING MORE
PERIODIC BY AFTERNOON OVER THE S 1/2 OF THE CWA. PRECIPITATION
THEN TAPERS OFF FROM NW TO SE AS THE SURFACE LOW EXITS WELL TO THE
NE SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW IT APPEARS THAT IN MOST AREAS...THE
PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END BEFORE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL COLD AIR
COMES IN TO CAUSE ANY MIXING WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW. A POSSIBLE
EXCEPTION COULD BE ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1000-1500 FT ACROSS MAINLY
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF S CT...WHERE THE COLD AIR MIGHT ARRIVE IN
TIME TO CAUSE A FEW FLAKES OF SNOW TO MIX IN...IF NOT BRIEFLY
CHANGE TO ALL SNOW...BEFORE ENDING. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS EVEN
AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS THAT THERE WILL BE LITTLE IF ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION FROM THIS SYSTEM.

THE MAIN THREAT FROM THIS SYSTEM IS STRONG GUSTY WINDS. WINDS
SHOULD GUSTS TO UP TO 30-35 MPH BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND 25-30 MPH OVER WESTERN PORTIONS. AS THE
STORM CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AS IT PULLS AWAY THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH OVER MAINLY S CT/LONG ISLAND
AND POSSIBLY NYC/FAR E PORTIONS OF NE NJ SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW
FORECASTING WINDS TO REMAIN JUST UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA.
HOWEVER...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A WIND ADVISORY WAS ULTIMATELY
NEEDED FOR AT LEAST E SUFFOLK COUNTY AND SE CT. THIS IS HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW - BUT BASED
ON LATEST GUIDANCE IT APPEARS THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CWA.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT:
FOR LOWS TONIGHT USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES...EXPECT VALUES TO BE AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

A BLEND OF ECS/MET/MAV GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND
A MIX DOWN FROM 950 HPA NEAR THE COAST AND 925 HPA INLAND...PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...WAS USED FOR HIGHS ON SATURDAY. READINGS SHOULD
BE AROUND 5 TO MAYBE 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT...A BLEND OF NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES WITH
MAV/MET GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR LOWS...WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM ON SUNDAY...AND
THE RESULTING TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUSTAIN WINDY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE DAYTIME BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING SUNDAY
NIGHT. FORECAST BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS COULD SUPPORT ADVISORY CRITERIA
WIND GUSTS DURING THE DAY...PARTICULARLY FOR THE COASTAL AREAS. SOME
SPOTS COULD EVEN REACH CRITERIA BASED ON SUSTAINED WINDS. ASIDE FROM
THIS...PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH BELOW NORMAL
HIGHS. WIND CHILLS AT DAYBREAK WILL BE AROUND 30 DEGREES.

HIGH PRESSURE THEN CONTINUES TO BUILD IN ON MONDAY AND MOVES
OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY. DRY BOTH DAYS WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES.

FOR WEDNESDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES...BUT IS MOISTURE
STARVED. JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS NORTH OF THE CITY. A
STRONGER COLD FRONT THEN FOLLOWS...AND IS PROGGED TO PASS THROUGH
SOMETIME THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT. POPS EVENTUALLY CLIMB INTO
THE CHANCE CATEGORY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS
FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA...LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. THE LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL INTENSIFY
AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

WINDS...N LESS THAN 10 KT THROUGH SUNRISE...BECOMING E NEAR 10 KT BY
15Z...THEN NE INCREASING TO NEAR 15 KT WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KT AFT 06Z
SAT ALONG THE COAST...INCLUDING THE NYC METRO TERMINALS.

CLOUDS...SCT-BKN 4THSD-5THSD FT THROUGH SUNRISE. VFR CIGS 4THSD-5THSD
FT DEVELOPING FM 14Z-18Z FROM SE TO NW. TIMING WITHIN +/- 2 HOURS.
MVFR CIGS FCST WITH ARRIVAL OF LIGHT RAIN AFT SUNSET THIS EVENING.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING THE DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN AND MVFR CIGS
WITHIN 2 HOURS EITHER SIDE OF FORECAST.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING THE DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN AND MVFR CIGS
WITHIN 2 HOURS EITHER SIDE OF FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING THE DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN AND MVFR CIGS
WITHIN 2 HOURS EITHER SIDE OF FORECAST.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING THE DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN AND MVFR CIGS
WITHIN 2 HOURS EITHER SIDE OF FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING THE DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN AND MVFR CIGS
WITHIN 2 HOURS EITHER SIDE OF FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING THE DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN AND MVFR CIGS
WITHIN 2 HOURS EITHER SIDE OF FORECAST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRI NIGHT-SAT NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER IN RAIN. NE-N WINDS 20-25G30-35KT.
.SUNDAY...VFR. NW WINDS 20-25G30-35KT.
.MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS SHOULD KEEP WINDS TO
AROUND 10 KT OR LESS TODAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS TONIGHT
IN RESPONSE TO A STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING TO THE S AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE SW...THIS SHOULD BRING GUSTS TO 25-30
KT TO ALL WATERS TONIGHT...SO HAVE CONTINUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THEN. THE HIGH MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA SATURDAY-
SUNDAY...AND A SERIES OF STRENGTHENING COASTAL LOWS RESULT IN A
CONTINUING TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS.
THIS LIKELY WILL RESULT IN GUSTS TO GALE FORCE OVER ALL WATERS
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...WITH WIND GUSTS INCREASING TO 40-45
KT SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH THESE GUSTS INTO SUNDAY. SEAS WILL BUILD
AS A RESULT TO 5-9 FT ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS AND 3-5 FT ON
THE EASTERN SOUND BY SATURDAY NIGHT.

N-NW GALES CONTINUE ON ALL WATERS DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...THEN
WINDS START TO DIMINISH AT NIGHT. BY MONDAY MORNING...ALL WATERS
SHOULD BE BELOW GALE FORCE GUSTS...HOWEVER SCA CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY PREVAIL ACROSS THE OCEAN AND EASTERN WATERS THROUGH A GOOD
PORTION OF THE DAY. LOOKS LIKE IT WILL TAKE UNTIL LATE MONDAY NIGHT
FOR SUB-SCA CONDITIONS TO REACH ALL OF THE WATERS WHEN A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE REACHES THE EASTERN SEABOARD  A RETURN WSW FLOW FOR
TUESDAY SHOULD REMAIN ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY THROUGH THIS MORNING...THEN LIGHT PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS INTO
TONIGHT. A MORE STEADY/LIGHT-MODERATE RAIN IS FORECAST FROM
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT - WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER S/E
AREAS. FOR NOW FORECASTING TOTAL RAINFALL FROM FRIDAY NIGHT-
SATURDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM A TENTH AN INCH OVER ORANGE COUNTY TO
A HALF AND INCH TO MAYBE AN INCH OVER SE CT/E SUFFOLK COUNTY.
GIVEN THE EXPECTED DURATION OF PRECIPITATION OF 24+HOURS...NO
SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC IMPACT IS ANTICIPATED FROM THIS SYSTEM AT
THIS TIME.

NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...GC
MARINE...JC/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...JC/MALOIT







000
FXUS61 KBOX 310840
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
440 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. A DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM
WILL MOVE UP THE COAST SATURDAY AND PASS OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. ONE OR TWO COLD FRONTS MAY CROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AREA OF LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
AREAS AT 07Z...THOUGH NOTING SOME CLEARING ACROSS THE CT VALLEY AS
WELL AS ALONG THE S COAST ON LATEST IR SATELLITE LOOP. NAM AND GFS
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATING THAT THE 5-6KFT CEILINGS MAY BREAK UP
BRIEFLY AROUND MID TO LATE MORNING BEFORE REDEVELOPING AS NE WINDS
BRING IN INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DURING THE AFTERNOON...
AGAIN ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS.

LOW PRES MOVES SE OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES...THEN SECONDARY
DEVELOPMENT BEGINS OFF THE MID ATLC COAST. LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE
DEEP MOISTURE WITH THE CYCLOGENESIS WILL REMAIN S OF THE REGION SO
HAVE KEPT A DRY FORECAST GOING. MAY SEE SOME SPRINKLES AND PATCHY
DRIZZLE DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY ALONG THE E COAST...BUT NOT ENOUGH
TO MENTION AT THIS POINT.

EXPECT TEMPS TO ONLY RISE TO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER
INLAND TERRAIN...THEN MAINLY IN THE 50S ELSEWHERE WITH THE
FRESHENING E-NE WINDS ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...

TONIGHT...SHORT RANGE MODELS APPEAR TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF NOT ONE BUT TWO CENTERS OF LOW PRES AS H5 LONG
WAVE TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE SE U.S. NOTING TWO STRONG UPPER LEVEL
JETS MOVING AROUND THE BASE OF THIS DIGGING TROUGH...THE FIRST
90-100 KT H3 JET AXIS WORKS NE OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL HELP
INTENSIFY THE FIRST LOW OFF THE MID ATLC COAST AROUND 12Z SAT.

AREA OF RAIN WILL WORK STEADILY NORTHWARD...ESPECIALLY AROUND OR
AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL ALSO SEE NE WINDS INCREASE ALONG THE COAST
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KT...HIGHEST ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE COD
AND THE ISLANDS. BEST SHOT FOR PRECIP WILL BE ACROSS RI/E MA.

EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S OVER SW NH TO
BETWEEN 45 AND 50 ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...
DEEP AMPLITUDE TROUGHS ON BOTH COASTS SATURDAY WITH A RIDGE IN
BETWEEN. SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN TROUGH GENERATES A
CUTOFF UPPER LOW WITH TWO JET STREAMS...A NORTHERN STREAM ALONG
THE CANADIAN BORDER AND A SOUTHERN STREAM MOVING WITH THE SHORT
WAVE. THE PATTERN SHIFTS EAST DURING THE WEEK WITH THE RIDGE
BUILDING OVER NEW ENGLAND. THE PATTERN THEN TRANSFORMS TO A MORE
ZONAL FLOW. REMAINS OF THE PACIFIC COAST TROUGH MOVE ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND MIDWEEK.

COLDER THAN NORMAL HEIGHTS WITH THE EASTERN TROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
HEIGHTS INCREASE TO NORMAL OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL BY MIDWEEK.
THIS POINTS TO A COLDER THAN NORMAL WEEKEND...TRENDING TO NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY MIDWEEK.

31/00Z GUIDANCE SUITE REMAINS IN DECENT OVERALL AGREEMENT. THERE
ALSO REMAIN SOME DIFFERENCES WITH TRACK...INTENSITY AND TIMING. AT
THIS POINT IT APPEARS SNOWFALL IS MOSTLY OFF THE TABLE AWAY FROM A
VERY BRIEF PERIOD LATE SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
EVEN THEN...IT WILL NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH. FAVORED A BLEND TO SMOOTH
OVER SOME OF THE MORE MINOR DIFFERENCES. THIS RESULTED IN VERY
GOOD CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THE DAILIES...

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...
COASTAL STORM CONTINUES TO BE INDICATED FOR SATURDAY AND EARLY
SUNDAY. SUPPORT COMES FROM TWO SETS OF FORCING MECHANISMS...
SUGGESTING A TWO-PART EVENT. INITIAL FORCING COMES FROM RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF NORTHERN STREAM JET SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
SEND A COASTAL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PAST SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.

THE SECOND FORCING COMES FROM LEFT EXIT REGION OF JET SUPPORTING
A POTENT SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE EASTERN TROUGH LATE
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. EVEN SO...MOST OF THE FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING WITH EACH SEGMENT IS FOCUSED OFFSHORE INTO THE MARITIMES
AND MAINE. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS FORCING SHOULD EXTEND INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH THE FIRST...AND POSSIBLY THE SECOND...OF
THE SEGMENTS. WE EXPECT RAIN SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
HIGHEST POPS OVER CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS...LESSER VALUES NORTH
AND WEST.

STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE AND A 50 KNOT LOW LEVEL
JET WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WINDY CONDITIONS. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL
BE OVER THE EASTERN/SOUTHEAST WATERS. STRONGEST LAND WINDS WILL BE
OVER THE OUTER CAPE AND ISLANDS...DIMINISHING FARTHER WEST. HAVE
FEATURED 45 KNOTS FOR THE STRONGEST WINDS AND 20-25 KNOTS IN THE
INTERIOR.

A COASTAL STORM WILL PASS US IN PIECES SATURDAY AND LATER
SATURDAY NIGHT...AS NOTED ABOVE. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO DIMINISH
WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND END ON THE MA EAST COAST AFTER
SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH MOST OF THIS STORM SHOULD REMAIN FAVORABLE
FOR ALL RAIN. AS THE WINDS SHIFT FROM NORTHEAST TO NORTHWEST
SATURDAY NIGHT...COLDER AIR WILL BE DRAWN IN WHICH COULD CHANGE
THE LAST SHOWERS OVER TO SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ANY
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD NOT BE MUCH MORE THAN A TRACE...WHERE IT
SNOWS AT ALL.

DRIER AIR SUNDAY WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES. COLD ADVECTION WILL
PROMOTE MIXING THROUGH AT LEAST 850 MB. WINDS IN THIS LAYER WILL
BE 35 TO 40 KNOTS...SO EXPECT NORTHWEST GUSTS TO AT LEAST THE
LOWER END OF THIS RANGE. WINDS DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE STORM
MOVES FARTHER AWAY.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. MONDAY SHOULD BE SUNNY AS
THIS HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD. MIXING WILL AGAIN BRING INCREASED WIND
GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS IN THE MIXED LAYER ARE EXPECTED
AROUND 30 KNOTS WITH POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE STRONGER SPEEDS. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH WITH SUNSET.

THIS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TUESDAY. THIS WILL MAKE ROOM
FOR A WARM FRONT TO SWING PAST. SUFFICIENT LIFT AND MOISTURE TO
SUPPORT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...BUT THE BEST WARM FRONTAL LIFT WILL
REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AND WEST SO EXPECT AT LEAST SOME SUN THROUGH
THE DAY.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...
LOW CONFIDENCE ON MIDWEEK WEATHER. AT LEAST ONE TROUGH IN THE
ZONAL FLOW WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS TIME. GFS AND
ECMWF ARE HINTING AT ONE ON WEDNESDAY...BUT SHOWING A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH PASSING ON THURSDAY. THE FORECAST WILL HAVE
CLOUDS AND LOW-END CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

THROUGH 12Z...MAINLY VFR. LOCAL MVFR-IFR VSBYS IN PATCHY FOG IN
NORMALLY PRONE AREAS.

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. ANY LEFTOVER MVFR VSBYS IN PATCHY
FOG WILL IMPROVE BY 14Z.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE THROUGH THE
NIGHT TO MVFR-IFR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WITH LOWEST CONDITIONS ALONG
THE COAST. EXPECT LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE S COAST AND INTO SE MA
AROUND OR AFTER MIDNIGHT...MOVING INTO THE REMAINDER MOST OF THE
REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...IFR CIGS AND MVFR OR IFR VSBYS IN PERIODS OF RAIN
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. VFR AND DRIER WEATHER MOVE IN FROM WEST
TO EAST EARLY SUNDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS SATURDAY GUSTING 35-45 KNOTS
ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS AND 25-35 KNOTS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN.
WINDS SHIFT TO NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND NORTHWEST SUNDAY. GUSTS 40-
45 KNOTS ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS...WITH 25-35 KNOTS ELSEWHERE ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

MONDAY...VFR. DAYTIME WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KNOTS
INLAND AND 35 KNOTS CAPE AND ISLANDS...DIMINISHING TOWARD EVENING.

TUESDAY...VFR WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. WINDS
WILL VEER TO E-NE DURING THE DAY AND BEGIN TO PICK UP. GUSTS UP TO
20 KT REACH THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS BY LATE IN THE DAY. SEAS
REMAIN BELOW 5 FT.

TONIGHT...E-NE WINDS INCREASE WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KT. SMALL
CRAFTS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE WATERS...BUT NOT QUITE
THERE FOR BOSTON HARBOR AND MASS/IPSWICH BAYS. SEAS WILL ALSO
BUILD ESPECIALLY ON THE SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS DURING THE NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY...STRONG POTENTIAL FOR HIGH END GALES...WITH LOW
POTENTIAL FOR STORM FORCE WINDS. ON THE OUTER WATERS...EXPECT
GUSTS TO AT LEAST 45 KNOTS.

EXPECT RAIN WITH INCREASING NORTHEAST WINDS. GALE FORCE GUSTS
EXPECTED ON MOST OF THE WATERS. RIGHT ON THE EDGE OF GALE FORCE
WINDS IN BOSTON HARBOR AND NARRAGANSETT BAY. GALE WATCHES POSTED
FOR ALL WATERS. KEPT IT SIMPLE FOR NOW...BUT WILL DEFINITELY NEED
TO REFINE THE TIMING FOR THE NEAR SHORE WATERS WITH LATER
FORECASTS.

SUNDAY...RAIN MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. WINDS SHIFT NORTHWEST WITH
GALE FORCE GUSTS UP TO 45 KNOTS. EXPECTING THESE WINDS TO DIMINISH
BELOW GALE FORCE SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH THE WIND SHIFT...ROUGH SEAS
WILL TRANSITION FARTHER OFFSHORE WITH DIMINISHING SEAS CLOSER TO
SHORE. GALE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

MONDAY...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WITH WIND GUSTS APPROACHING GALE
FORCE AGAIN DURING THE DAY. WINDS DIMINISH TOWARD EVENING. SEAS
WILL LINGER AT 5-9 FEET...ESPECIALLY ON THE OUTER WATERS. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IS LIKELY...LOW END CHANCE THAT GALES MAY BE NEEDED
ON SOME OF THE WATERS.

TUESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES ARE RATHER LOW SATURDAY EVENING AND AGAIN
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND HIGH
SEAS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO RESULT IN MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
AND BEACH EROSION ALONG THE EASTERN MA COAST...PARTICULARLY THE
NORTH SIDE OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET HARBOR DURING BOTH HIGH TIDE
CYCLES.

THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY REVOLVES AROUND WHEN AND HOW STRONG THE
WINDS/SEAS WILL GET. THE MODELS SEEM TO BE SHOWING TWO PULSES OF
WIND WITH TWO WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE. THE FIRST ONE APPEARS TO BE
SATURDAY EVENING WITH THE SECOND ONE SUNDAY MORNING. THE POTENTIAL
CONTINUES FOR WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 KNOTS AND SEAS BUILDING TO 20
FEET ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS EAST OF MASSACHUSETTS. THE TREND OF
THE 12Z GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TO SHOW THE STRONGEST WINDS/HIGHEST SEAS
WITH THE SATURDAY EVENING PULSE. WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE HOW THE
MODELS TREND...BUT STILL FEEL BOTH HIGH TIDE CYCLES ARE AT RISK
WITH A 1 TO 2 FOOT STORM SURGE.

AREAS OF GREATEST CONCERN APPEAR TO BE THE NORTH SIDE OF CAPE
COD...SUCH AS SANDWICH...BARNSTABLE...DENNIS...BREWSTER AND
POSSIBLY EASTHAM. OTHER TYPICAL HOT SPOTS WILL BE SALISBURY AND
PLUM ISLAND...HULL...SCITUATE AND PERHAPS SANDWICH HARBOR AND
NANTUCKET HARBOR. AGAIN...THE MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING AS WELL AS BEACH EROSION.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ231>234-250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ235-237-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BELK




000
FXUS61 KALY 310825
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
425 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A POTENT SYSTEM WORKING OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WILL DIVE TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT AND PHASE WITH ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE OFFSHORE. THE NET RESULT OF THIS WILL BE ONLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS...TURNING TO SNOW
SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. A POWERFUL STORM
OFFSHORE WILL DRIVE THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON OVER US BY
SUNDAY ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT...THE SKY WAS GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS OUR
REGION. A PATCH OF STRATOCUMULUS CONTINUED TO PERSIST IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY HOLDING TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE LOWER 40S THERE.
CLOUDS WERE MORE EXTENSIVE IN VERMONT AS WELL HOLDING TEMPERATURES
UP CLOSER TO 40 AS WELL. MEANWHILE IT WAS GENERALLY IN THE 30S
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WITH MANY OUTLYING AT OR BELOW
FREEZING.

THROUGH SUNRISE...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY NOT FALL ALL THAT MUCH
MORE...WITH LOWS 35-40 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...LOWER 30S OR UPPER
20S OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT.

FILTERED SUNSHINE WILL START THE DAY OUT TODAY...WITH A GENERAL
INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS...EXCEPT MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS SOUTHERN
VERMONT.

THE H20 WATER LOOP DEPICTED TWO DISTURBANCE TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST
RESPECTIVELY. THE ONE TO OUR SOUTH WAS GENERATING THUNDERSTORMS OFF
THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. MEANWHILE THE STRONG ONE WAS IRONICALLY
LIGHTER PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS ACROSS MICHIGAN. THE
SECOND STORM HAD MUCH LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.

THE IMPULSE TO OUR SOUTH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM OUR
REGION. THE OTHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE TO OUR SOUTH. A WEAK AREA OF
ASCENT WILL DEVELOP BY LATE IN THE DAY...BUT DUE TO A DRY ATMOSPHERE
VERY LITTLE IF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TODAY.

DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND LIMITED MIXING...TEMPERATURES WILL RUN A
SHADE COOLER THAN NORMAL. LOOK FOR HIGHS 50-55 IN THE
VALLEYS...45-50 HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTH UNDER 10 MPH.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DIVE FURTHER
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND EVENTUALLY PHASE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
SYSTEM OFFSHORE. THE DEEP MOISTURE (WITH PWATS OVER AN INCH) LOOKS
TO REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE. CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS INCREASING
AS THE 00Z EUROPEAN/CANADIAN AND THE GFS (AND ITS ALL ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS) INDICATE A SIMILAR SCENARIO KEEPING THE OCEAN STORM AND
MOST OF ITS PRECIPITATION TO OUR EAST.

WHAT THIS WILL MEAN FOR US IN ONLY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
TONIGHT...BUT EVEN MOST OF THESE SHOULD HOLD OFF LATE ENOUGH TO NOT
IMPACT ALL THE TRICK OR TREATERS. IT MIGHT BE MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH
FOR A SNOW FLAKES IN THE ADIRONDACK BUT ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE
EXTREMELY MINOR AT THE FREEZING LEVEL LOOKS TO REMAIN ABOVE 3000
FEET AND THE PRECIPITATION LIGHT.

SATURDAY...AS PHASING COMMENCES WELL TO OUR SOUTHEAST...IT WILL
REMAIN OVERCAST WITH PERHAPS A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. AGAIN THESE
WILL BE LIGHT AND IN MOST CASES...RAIN...WITH ANY SNOW SHOWERS
CONFINED TO THE HIGHEST TERRAIN.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT...A POWERFUL OCEAN STORM WILL BE OFF CAPE COD. IT
LOOKS AS IF ITS HEAVY BANDS OF PRECIPITATION (BOTH THE WARM AND COLD
CONVEYOR BELTS AND ASSOCIATED BANDING) WILL STAY TO OUR EAST. LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ON ITS OUTER EDGE WILL SKIM MAINLY OUR EASTERN
TERRAIN...BUT A FEW OF THESE COULD WORK INTO THE HUDSON VALLEY AND
POINTS EAST. BY THIS TIME...H850 TEMPERATURES WILL DIP WELL BELOW
ZERO EVERYWHERE AND FREEZING LEVELS WILL EVENTUALLY CLOSE TO THE
GROUND. THEREFORE...MOST OF WHAT FALL SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE
SNOW...BUT THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH OF IT. A COATING TO A COUPLE OF
INCHES IS POSSIBLE (BUT NOT CERTAIN) OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
WHILE A DUSTING CANNOT BE RULED EVEN ON THE VALLEY FLOORS...IT
APPEARS UNLIKELY.

TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S IN THE
VALLEYS...20S HIGHER TERRAIN. A GUSTY WIND UP TO 30 MPH WILL ADD TO
THE CHILL.

SUNDAY...ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...LOOK TO BE GONE BY AFTERNOON. IN FACT...CLOUDS LOOK TO
GIVE WAY TO INCREASING SUNSHINE. NEVERTHELESS IT WILL BE A DOWNRIGHT
COLD AND WINDY DAY WITH HIGHS NO BETTER THAN MID OR UPPER 40S IN THE
VALLEYS...MID 30S TO LOWER 40S HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH GOOD
MIXING...NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS COULD REACH 30-35 MPH OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION.

THE WIND WILL SLOWLY ABATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTH OF REGION...BUT NOT COMPLETELY. ASSUMING THE SKY REMAINS
MOSTLY CLEAR (WHICH WE THINK IT WILL) TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DIVE INTO
THE 20S ACROSS MOST AREAS...UPPER 20S VALLEYS AND LOWER TO MID 20S
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.


&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A QUIET START TO THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKE CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THESE
TWO DAYS. A WEAK WARM FRONT PASSING WELL TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA MAY PRODUCE AN ISOLATED SHOWER ON TUESDAY ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A SLOW INCREASE IN CLOUDS ON TUESDAY. AFTER A
CHILLY START IN THE 20S...HIGHS MONDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S
TO LOWER 50S. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. HIGHS
TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...AND MOVE
THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS INDICATE A LOT OF THE PCPN ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE POST-FRONTAL. HAVE FORECAST POPS TO INCREASE
BY WEDNESDAY TO SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE SOUTHEAST ZONES...RANGING UP
TO 40 PERCENT OVER THE NORTHWEST.

THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT AFTER IT MOVES TO THE SOUTH OF THE ALBANY
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROF
WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...ALONG WITH A WEAK
SURFACE LOW...AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...HAVE FORECAST THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO
INCREASE TO 35 TO 40 PERCENT IN ALL AREAS BY LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AND TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT ON THURSDAY. THERE ARE SOME MODELS
DIFFERENCES WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS HAS A MUCH STRONGER TROF AND
MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF PCPN. THE ECMWF TROF IS FAIRLY WEAK AND ONLY
SHOWS SCATTERED PCPN.

IT WILL REMAIN MILD ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE 35 TO 45. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN
THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 60. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S. HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF
TAF SITES THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 06Z SATURDAY.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR FOG CONDITIONS AT
KGFL/KPSF FOR A FEW HOURS EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES TO START THE TAF PERIOD WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING
CLOUDS ON FRIDAY...WITH MAINLY A BKN/OVC DECK OF 4000 TO 5000 FEET
ACROSS THE REGION MOST OF FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH A COUPLE OF HOURS
AFTER SUNRISE...THEN EASTERLY AT 5 KTS OR LESS THEREAFTER.

OUTLOOK...
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. RH
VALUES WILL GENERALLY AROUND OR GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...ESPECIALLY
AT NIGHT WHEN VALUES WILL 75-90 PERCENT.

TODAY WILL START WITH FILTERED SUNSHINE FOLLOWED BY INCREASING
CLOUDS. IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY. SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS. SOME OF THESE WILL
BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT. ANY REAL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE UP TO A
COUPLE OF INCHES COULD COLLECT IN A FEW SPOTS.

THE WIND WILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE WIND WILL
TURN NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH.

ON SUNDAY...SUNSHINE RETURNS BUT IT WILL BE WINDY AND COLD WITH
GUSTS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST 30 MPH OR HIGHER. IT WILL BE COLD THAT
DAY AS WELL. RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE 30S VALLEYS...AND 40S
MOUNTAINS.

DRY WEATHER WILL HOLD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY..BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRODUCES SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

ANY PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE LIGHT...AND BASIN
AVERAGE AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY. SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL ACTUALLY FALL AS LIGHT
SNOW.

DRY WEATHER SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NO BIG
PRECIPITATION MAKERS IN SIGHT.

RIVER LEVELS WILL HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV













000
FXUS61 KOKX 310757
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
357 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TODAY...THEN TRACKS
NORTHEAST TO A POSITION SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD BY SATURDAY EVENING.
MEANWHILE...ANOTHER COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
LATE SATURDAY...THEN TRACKS NORTHEAST TO THE CANADIAN MARITIME
PROVINCES BY SUNDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS
STORM INTO TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL PASS TO THE NORTH ON
TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A SERIES OF FAST MOVING COLD FRONTS
DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ALREADY HAVE A 1010 HPA LOW OFF THE NC COAST AT 7Z. A 700 HPA
SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY OVER N CENTRAL GA...ROUNDING THE BASE OF A
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH WILL INTERACT WITH THIS LOW AND HAVE IT TRACK
SLOWLY NE AND DEEPEN THROUGH THE DAY. MEANWHILE...A NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY CURRENTLY...WILL WORK
TO FORM AN INVERTED TROUGH TO THE N-NW OF THIS LOW BY THIS
AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN HAVING AN AREA OF ISOLD-
SCT SHRA TRACK WNW FROM OFF THE S FORK OF LONG ISLAND BACK TOWARDS
SW CT THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR THIS - AS
COVERAGE LIKELY WILL BE QUITE THIN AN INTENSITY QUITE LIGHT.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT INCREASING CLOUD COVER TODAY...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH CLOUDS LOWERING AND THICKENING FROM SE
TO NW ACROSS THE CWA.

FOR HIGHS TODAY...USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND MIXING DOWN FROM 875 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ALL MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN TAKING A DEVELOPING CUTOFF LOW DOWN
INTO THE CAROLINAS BY SATURDAY MORNING...THEN LIFTING IT EAST THEN
NORTHEAST AS IT OPENS TO NEAR/OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE RESULT WILL BE SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN BECOMING LIKELY BY LATE
TONIGHT ACROSS ROUGHLY THE S 1/2 OF THE CWA AND A CHANCE OF LIGHT
RAIN N. THE SPOTTY RAIN WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY...BECOMING MORE
PERIODIC BY AFTERNOON OVER THE S 1/2 OF THE CWA. PRECIPITATION
THEN TAPERS OFF FROM NW TO SE AS THE SURFACE LOW EXITS WELL TO THE
NE SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW IT APPEARS THAT IN MOST AREAS...THE
PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END BEFORE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL COLD AIR
COMES IN TO CAUSE ANY MIXING WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW. A POSSIBLE
EXCEPTION COULD BE ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1000-1500 FT ACROSS MAINLY
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF S CT...WHERE THE COLD AIR MIGHT ARRIVE IN
TIME TO CAUSE A FEW FLAKES OF SNOW TO MIX IN...IF NOT BRIEFLY
CHANGE TO ALL SNOW...BEFORE ENDING. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS EVEN
AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS THAT THERE WILL BE LITTLE IF ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION FROM THIS SYSTEM.

THE MAIN THREAT FROM THIS SYSTEM IS STRONG GUSTY WINDS. WINDS
SHOULD GUSTS TO UP TO 30-35 MPH BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND 25-30 MPH OVER WESTERN PORTIONS. AS THE
STORM CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AS IT PULLS AWAY THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH OVER MAINLY S CT/LONG ISLAND
AND POSSIBLY NYC/FAR E PORTIONS OF NE NJ SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW
FORECASTING WINDS TO REMAIN JUST UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA.
HOWEVER...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A WIND ADVISORY WAS ULTIMATELY
NEEDED FOR AT LEAST E SUFFOLK COUNTY AND SE CT. THIS IS HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW - BUT BASED
ON LATEST GUIDANCE IT APPEARS THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CWA.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT:
FOR LOWS TONIGHT USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES...EXPECT VALUES TO BE AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

A BLEND OF ECS/MET/MAV GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND
A MIX DOWN FROM 950 HPA NEAR THE COAST AND 925 HPA INLAND...PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...WAS USED FOR HIGHS ON SATURDAY. READINGS SHOULD
BE AROUND 5 TO MAYBE 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT...A BLEND OF NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES WITH
MAV/MET GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR LOWS...WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM ON SUNDAY...AND
THE RESULTING TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUSTAIN WINDY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE DAYTIME BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING SUNDAY
NIGHT. FORECAST BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS COULD SUPPORT ADVISORY CRITERIA
WIND GUSTS DURING THE DAY...PARTICULARLY FOR THE COASTAL AREAS. SOME
SPOTS COULD EVEN REACH CRITERIA BASED ON SUSTAINED WINDS. ASIDE FROM
THIS...PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH BELOW NORMAL
HIGHS. WIND CHILLS AT DAYBREAK WILL BE AROUND 30 DEGREES.

HIGH PRESSURE THEN CONTINUES TO BUILD IN ON MONDAY AND MOVES
OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY. DRY BOTH DAYS WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES.

FOR WEDNESDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES...BUT IS MOISTURE
STARVED. JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS NORTH OF THE CITY. A
STRONGER COLD FRONT THEN FOLLOWS...AND IS PROGGED TO PASS THROUGH
SOMETIME THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT. POPS EVENTUALLY CLIMB INTO
THE CHANCE CATEGORY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS
FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA...LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. THE LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL INTENSIFY
AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

WINDS...N LESS THAN 10 KT THROUGH SUNRISE...BECOMING E NEAR 10 KT BY
15Z...THEN NE INCREASING TO NEAR 15 KT WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KT AFT 06Z
SAT ALONG THE COAST...INCLUDING THE NYC METRO TERMINALS.

CLOUDS...SCT-BKN 4THSD-5THSD FT THROUGH SUNRISE. VFR CIGS 4THSD-5THSD
FT DEVELOPING FM 14Z-18Z FROM SE TO NW. TIMING WITHIN +/- 2 HOURS.
MVFR CIGS FCST WITH ARRIVAL OF LIGHT RAIN AFT SUNSET THIS EVENING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRI NIGHT-SAT NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER IN RAIN. NE-N WINDS 20-25G30-35KT.
.SUNDAY...VFR. NW WINDS 20-25G30-35KT.
.MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS SHOULD KEEP WINDS TO
AROUND 10 KT OR LESS TODAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS TONIGHT
IN RESPONSE TO A STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING TO THE S AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE SW...THIS SHOULD BRING GUSTS TO 25-30
KT TO ALL WATERS TONIGHT...SO HAVE CONTINUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THEN. THE HIGH MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA SATURDAY-
SUNDAY...AND A SERIES OF STRENGTHENING COASTAL LOWS RESULT IN A
CONTINUING TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS.
THIS LIKELY WILL RESULT IN GUSTS TO GALE FORCE OVER ALL WATERS
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...WITH WIND GUSTS INCREASING TO 40-45
KT SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH THESE GUSTS INTO SUNDAY. SEAS WILL BUILD
AS A RESULT TO 5-9 FT ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS AND 3-5 FT ON
THE EASTERN SOUND BY SATURDAY NIGHT.

N-NW GALES CONTINUE ON ALL WATERS DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...THEN
WINDS START TO DIMINISH AT NIGHT. BY MONDAY MORNING...ALL WATERS
SHOULD BE BELOW GALE FORCE GUSTS...HOWEVER SCA CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY PREVAIL ACROSS THE OCEAN AND EASTERN WATERS THROUGH A GOOD
PORTION OF THE DAY. LOOKS LIKE IT WILL TAKE UNTIL LATE MONDAY NIGHT
FOR SUB-SCA CONDITIONS TO REACH ALL OF THE WATERS WHEN A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE REACHES THE EASTERN SEABOARD  A RETURN WSW FLOW FOR
TUESDAY SHOULD REMAIN ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY THROUGH THIS MORNING...THEN LIGHT PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS INTO
TONIGHT. A MORE STEADY/LIGHT-MODERATE RAIN IS FORECAST FROM
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT - WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER S/E
AREAS. FOR NOW FORECASTING TOTAL RAINFALL FROM FRIDAY NIGHT-
SATURDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM A TENTH AN INCH OVER ORANGE COUNTY TO
A HALF AND INCH TO MAYBE AN INCH OVER SE CT/E SUFFOLK COUNTY.
GIVEN THE EXPECTED DURATION OF PRECIPITATION OF 24+HOURS...NO
SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC IMPACT IS ANTICIPATED FROM THIS SYSTEM AT
THIS TIME.

NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/JC
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...GC
MARINE...MALOIT/JC
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/JC





000
FXUS61 KALY 310743
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
345 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A POTENT SYSTEM WORKING OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WILL DIVE TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT AND PHASE WITH ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE OFFSHORE. THE NET RESULT OF THIS WILL BE ONLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS...TURNING TO SNOW
SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. A POWERFUL STORM
OFFSHORE WILL DRIVE THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON OVER US BY
SUNDAY ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT...THE SKY WAS GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS OUR
REGION. A PATCH OF STRATOCUMULUS CONTINUED TO PERSIST IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY HOLDING TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE LOWER 40S THERE.
CLOUDS WERE MORE EXTENSIVE IN VERMONT AS WELL HOLDING TEMPERATURES
UP CLOSER TO 40 AS WELL. MEANWHILE IT WAS GENERALLY IN THE 30S
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WITH MANY OUTLYING AT OR BELOW
FREEZING.

THROUGH SUNRISE...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY NOT FALL ALL THAT MUCH
MORE...WITH LOWS 35-40 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...LOWER 30S OR UPPER
20S OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT.

FILTERED SUNSHINE WILL START THE DAY OUT TODAY...WITH A GENERAL
INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS...EXCEPT MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS SOUTHERN
VERMONT.

THE H20 WATER LOOP DEPICTED TWO DISTURBANCE TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST
RESPECTIVELY. THE ONE TO OUR SOUTH WAS GENERATING THUNDERSTORMS OFF
THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. MEANWHILE THE STRONG ONE WAS IRONICALLY
LIGHTER PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS ACROSS MICHIGAN. THE
SECOND STORM HAD MUCH LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.

THE IMPULSE TO OUR SOUTH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM OUR
REGION. THE OTHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE TO OUR SOUTH. A WEAK AREA OF
ASCENT WILL DEVELOP BY LATE IN THE DAY...BUT DUE TO A DRY ATMOSPHERE
VERY LITTLE IF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TODAY.

DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND LIMITED MIXING...TEMPERATURES WILL RUN A
SHADE COOLER THAN NORMAL. LOOK FOR HIGHS 50-55 IN THE
VALLEYS...45-50 HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTH UNDER 10 MPH.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DIVE FURTHER
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND EVENTUALLY PHASE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
SYSTEM OFFSHORE. THE DEEP MOISTURE (WITH PWATS OVER AN INCH) LOOKS
TO REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE. CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS INCREASING
AS THE 00Z EUROPEAN/CANADIAN AND THE GFS (AND ITS ALL ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS) INDICATE A SIMILAR SCENARIO KEEPING THE OCEAN STORM AND
MOST OF ITS PRECIPITATION TO OUR EAST.

WHAT THIS WILL MEAN FOR US IN ONLY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
TONIGHT...BUT EVEN MOST OF THESE SHOULD HOLD OFF LATE ENOUGH TO NOT
IMPACT ALL THE TRICK OR TREATERS. IT MIGHT BE MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH
FOR A SNOW FLAKES IN THE ADIRONDACK BUT ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE
EXTREMELY MINOR AT THE FREEZING LEVEL LOOKS TO REMAIN ABOVE 3000
FEET AND THE PRECIPITATION LIGHT.

SATURDAY...AS PHASING COMMENCES WELL TO OUR SOUTHEAST...IT WILL
REMAIN OVERCAST WITH PERHAPS A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. AGAIN THESE
WILL BE LIGHT AND IN MOST CASES...RAIN...WITH ANY SNOW SHOWERS
CONFINED TO THE HIGHEST TERRAIN.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT...A POWERFUL OCEAN STORM WILL BE OFF CAPE COD. IT
LOOKS AS IF ITS HEAVY BANDS OF PRECIPITATION (BOTH THE WARM AND COLD
CONVEYOR BELTS AND ASSOCIATED BANDING) WILL STAY TO OUR EAST. LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ON ITS OUTER EDGE WILL SKIM MAINLY OUR EASTERN
TERRAIN...BUT A FEW OF THESE COULD WORK INTO THE HUDSON VALLEY AND
POINTS EAST. BY THIS TIME...H850 TEMPERATURES WILL DIP WELL BELOW
ZERO EVERYWHERE AND FREEZING LEVELS WILL EVENTUALLY CLOSE TO THE
GROUND. THEREFORE...MOST OF WHAT FALL SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE
SNOW...BUT THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH OF IT. A COATING TO A COUPLE OF
INCHES IS POSSIBLE (BUT NOT CERTAIN) OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
WHILE A DUSTING CANNOT BE RULED EVEN ON THE VALLEY FLOORS...IT
APPEARS UNLIKELY.

TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S IN THE
VALLEYS...20S HIGHER TERRAIN. A GUSTY WIND UP TO 30 MPH WILL ADD TO
THE CHILL.

SUNDAY...ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...LOOK TO BE GONE BY AFTERNOON. IN FACT...CLOUDS LOOK TO
GIVE WAY TO INCREASING SUNSHINE. NEVERTHELESS IT WILL BE A DOWNRIGHT
COLD AND WINDY DAY WITH HIGHS NO BETTER THAN MID OR UPPER 40S IN THE
VALLEYS...MID 30S TO LOWER 40S HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH GOOD
MIXING...NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS COULD REACH 30-35 MPH OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION.

THE WIND WILL SLOWLY ABATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTH OF REGION...BUT NOT COMPLETELY. ASSUMING THE SKY REMAINS
MOSTLY CLEAR (WHICH WE THINK IT WILL) TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DIVE INTO
THE 20S ACROSS MOST AREAS...UPPER 20S VALLEYS AND LOWER TO MID 20S
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.


&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COMING SOON.
&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF
TAF SITES THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 06Z SATURDAY.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR FOG CONDITIONS AT
KGFL/KPSF FOR A FEW HOURS EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES TO START THE TAF PERIOD WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING
CLOUDS ON FRIDAY...WITH MAINLY A BKN/OVC DECK OF 4000 TO 5000 FEET
ACROSS THE REGION MOST OF FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH A COUPLE OF HOURS
AFTER SUNRISE...THEN EASTERLY AT 5 KTS OR LESS THEREAFTER.

OUTLOOK...
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. RH
VALUES WILL GENERALLY AROUND OR GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...ESPECIALLY
AT NIGHT WHEN VALUES WILL 75-90 PERCENT.

TODAY WILL START WITH FILTERED SUNSHINE FOLLOWED BY INCREASING
CLOUDS. IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY. SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS. SOME OF THESE WILL
BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT. ANY REAL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE UP TO A
COUPLE OF INCHES COULD COLLECT IN A FEW SPOTS.

THE WIND WILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE WIND WILL
TURN NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH.

ON SUNDAY...SUNSHINE RETURNS BUT IT WILL BE WINDY AND COLD WITH
GUSTS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST 30 MPH OR HIGHER. IT WILL BE COLD THAT
DAY AS WELL. RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE 30S VALLEYS...AND 40S
MOUNTAINS.

DRY WEATHER WILL HOLD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY..BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRODUCES SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

ANY PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE LIGHT...AND BASIN
AVERAGE AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY. SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL ACTUALLY FALL AS LIGHT
SNOW.

DRY WEATHER SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NO BIG
PRECIPITATION MAKERS IN SIGHT.

RIVER LEVELS WILL HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV










000
FXUS61 KBOX 310627
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
227 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. A DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM WILL MOVE UP
THE COAST SATURDAY AND PASS OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ONE OR TWO COLD FRONTS MAY CROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

210 AM UPDATE...
BAND OF LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS S NH/E MA AS
OF 06Z BASED ON LATEST IR SATELLITE TRENDS. TEMPS HAVE TENDED TO
LEVEL OFF WHERE THE CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED...THOUGH KCEF DOWN TO 29
DEGS WHERE SKIES HAVE REMAINED CLEAR AND WINDS ARE CALM. CALM
WINDS INLAND BEGINNING TO SHIFT TO LIGHT N-NE...WITH A NE WIND
5-10 KT ON THE OUTER CAPE. NAM BUFKIT SHOWING 5-6KFT CLOUD DECK
WELL FROM KBOS-KBED-KCON.

NOTING SOME PATCHY FOG STARTING TO DEVELOP WHERE THERE IS LOW
DEWPT DEPRESSION...AND SHOULD SEE MORE PATCHES OF FOG DEVELOP IN
NORMALLY PRONE LOCATIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. WIDE
RANGE OF TEMPS CONTINUE...FROM THE LOWER-MID 30S WELL INLAND TO
45-50 ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE WITH N-NE WINDS.

HAVE UPDATED FORECAST TO BRING CONDITIONS CURRENT THROUGH THE NEAR
TERM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
TODAY...ANOTHER QUIET DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE LIFTS TO THE NORTH.
WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE EAST AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TOWARDS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FROM THE CAROLINA COAST...EXPECT IT TO FEEL A
BIT COOLER THAN TODAY. OTHERWISE...INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE
APPROACHING COASTAL LOW.

TONIGHT...WHILE THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS
WITH THE UPCOMING STORM MOST OF THIS WILL AFFECT THE WEEKENDS
WEATHER SO WILL MOSTLY DISCUSS IT IN THE LONG TERM SECTION. SHOULD
MOSTLY SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...RAIN
AND/OR SHOWERS WILL LIKELY MOVE ONTO THE SOUTH COAST AND INTO
SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS TOWARDS DAYBREAK SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

BIG PICTURE...
DEEP AMPLITUDE TROUGHS ON BOTH COASTS SATURDAY WITH A RIDGE IN
BETWEEN. SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN TROUGH GENERATES A
CUTOFF UPPER LOW WITH TWO JET STREAMS...A NORTHERN STREAM ALONG
THE CANADIAN BORDER AND A SOUTHERN STREAM MOVING WITH THE SHORT
WAVE. THE PATTERN SHIFTS EAST DURING THE WEEK WITH THE RIDGE
BUILDING OVER NEW ENGLAND. THE PATTERN THEN TRANSFORMS TO A MORE
ZONAL FLOW. REMAINS OF THE PACIFIC COAST TROUGH MOVE ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND MIDWEEK.

COLDER THAN NORMAL HEIGHTS WITH THE WEEKEND TROUGH. THESE BUILD TO
NORMAL OR A LITTLE MILDER THAN NORMAL BY MIDWEEK. THIS POINTS TO A
COLDER THAN NORMAL WEEKEND TRENDING TO NORMAL TEMPS BY MIDWEEK.

THE GFS...WHILE SERVICEABLE...IS A BIT OF AN OUTLIER. FOR THE GRIDS
WE WILL USE A BLEND OF MODEL DATA INCLUDING HPC AND /WHERE POSSIBLE/
THE 12Z ECMWF.

THE DAILIES...

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...

COASTAL STORM CONTINUES TO BE INDICATED FOR SATURDAY AND EARLY
SUNDAY. SUPPORT COMES FROM TWO SETS OF FORCING
MECHANISMS...SUGGESTING A TWO-PART EVENT. BUT FINE-TUNING THE TIMING
OF THESE PARTS IS DIFFICULT THIS FAR OUT. INITIAL FORCING COMES FROM
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF NORTHERN STREAM JET SATURDAY MORNING.
SECOND FORCING COMES FROM LEFT EXIT REGION OF JET SUPPORTING
SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE EASTERN TROUGH LATE
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. EVEN SO...MOST OF THE FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
WITH EACH SEGMENT IS FOCUSED ON THE MARITIMES AND MAINE. THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THIS FORCING SHOULD EXTEND INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WITH THE FIRST AND POSSIBLY THE SECOND OF THE SEGMENTS. WE
EXPECT RAIN SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH HIGHEST POPS OVER
CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS...LESSER VALUES NORTH AND WEST.

STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE AND A 50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WINDY CONDITIONS. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE
OVER THE EASTERN/SOUTHEAST WATERS. STRONGEST LAND WINDS WILL BE OVER
THE OUTER CAPE AND ISLANDS...DIMINISHING FARTHER WEST. HAVE FEATURED
45 KNOTS FOR THE STRONGEST WINDS AND 20-25 KNOTS IN THE INTERIOR.

THE COASTAL STORM WILL PASS US IN PIECES SATURDAY AND LATER SATURDAY
NIGHT...AS NOTED ABOVE. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO DIMINISH WEST TO
EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND END ON THE MASS EAST COAST AROUND OR SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH MOST OF THE STORM SHOULD REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
RAIN.  AS THE WINDS SHIFT FROM NORTHEAST TO NORTHWEST SATURDAY
NIGHT...COLDER AIR WILL BE DRAWN IN WHICH COULD CHANGE THE LAST
SHOWERS OVER TO SNOW. ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE NO MORE THAN A
TRACE. SOME HIGHLANDS SUCH AS IN THE MONADNOCK COULD PICK UP A LIGHT
ACCUMULATION AT STORM/S END.

DRIER AIR SUNDAY WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES. COLD ADVECTION WILL
PROMOTE MIXING THROUGH AT LEAST 850 MB. WINDS IN THIS LAYER WILL BE
35 TO 40 KNOTS...SO EXPECT NORTHWEST GUSTS TO AT LEAST THE LOWER END
OF THIS RANGE. WINDS DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE STORM MOVES
FARTHER AWAY.

MONDAY-TUESDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. MONDAY
SHOULD BE SUNNY AS THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD. MIXING WILL AGAIN
BRING INCREASED WIND GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS IN THE
MIXED LAYER ARE EXPECTED AROUND 30 KNOTS WITH POTENTIAL FOR A
LITTLE STRONGER SPEEDS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH WITH SUNSET.

THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE TUESDAY. THIS WILL MAKE ROOM FOR A WARM
FRONT TO SWING PAST. SUFFICIENT LIFT AND MOISTURE TO SUPPORT MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS...BUT THE BEST WARM FRONTAL LIFT WILL REMAIN TO OUR
NORTH AND WEST SO EXPECT AT LEAST SOME SUN THROUGH THE DAY.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY... LOW CONFIDENCE ON MIDWEEK WEATHER.  AT LEAST
ONE TROUGH IN THE ZONAL FLOW WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THIS TIME. GFS AND ECMWF ARE HINTING AT ONE ON WEDNESDAY...BUT
SHOWING A MORE SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH PASSING ON THURSDAY.  THE FORECAST
WILL HAVE CLOUDS AND LOW-END CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

THROUGH 12Z...MAINLY VFR. LOCAL MVFR-IFR VSBYS IN PATCHY FOG IN
NORMALLY PRONE AREAS.

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. ANY LEFTOVER MVFR VSBYS IN PATCHY
FOG WILL IMPROVE BY 14Z.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE THROUGH THE
NIGHT TO MVFR/IFR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. RAIN/SHOWERS EXPECTED ALONG
THE SOUTH COAST AND INTO SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AS WE NEAR
DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...IFR CIGS AND MVFR OR IFR VSBYS IN PERIODS OF RAIN
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. VFR AND DRIER WEATHER MOVE IN FROM WEST
TO EAST EARLY SUNDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS SATURDAY GUSTING 30-40 KNOTS
ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS AND 25-30 KNOTS IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. WINDS
SHIFT TO NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY WITH GUSTS 40-
45 KNOTS CAPE AND ISLANDS AND 30-35 KNOTS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.

MONDAY...VFR. DAYTIME WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KNOTS
INLAND AND 35 KNOTS CAPE AND ISLANDS...DIMINISHING TOWARD EVENING.

TUESDAY...VFR WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES TODAY WITH WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. WINDS SHIFT FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE
NORTHEAST THEN EAST DURING THE DAY. THESE EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS
INCREASE TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE WATERS FROM THE
CAROLINAS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF THE
WATERS FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY...STRONG POTENTIAL FOR HIGH END GALES ON THE OUTER
WATERS WITH GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS. LOW POTENTIAL OF STORM FORCE WINDS
ON THE OUTER WATERS. RAIN WITH INCREASING NORTHEAST WINDS. GALE
FORCE GUSTS EXPECTED ON MOST WATERS.WAVEWATCH MODEL FORECASTS OF
SEA HEIGHTS ARE LOWER THAN OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST. WE HAVE BUMPED
SEAS UP 2-3 FEET WITH 15 FOOT SEAS DEVELOPING EAST OF
MASSACHUSETTS. A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT CONTINUES TO ADDRESS
THIS CONCERN.

SUNDAY...RAIN MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. WINDS SHIFT NORTHWEST WITH GALE
FORCE GUSTS 40-45 KNOTS. EXPECT THESE WINDS TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE
FORCE SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH THE WIND SHIFT...THE ROUGH SEAS WILL
MIGRATE FARTHER OFFSHORE WITH DIMINISHING SEAS CLOSER TO SHORE.
GALE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

MONDAY... GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WITH SPEEDS APPROACHING GALE FORCE
AGAIN DURING THE DAY. WINDS DIMINISH TOWARD EVENING. SEAS WILL
LINGER AT 5-9 FEET ESPECIALLY ON THE OUTER WATERS.  SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS LIKELY...LOW-END CHANCE THAT GALES MAY BE NEEDED ON SOME
OF THE WATERS.

TUESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES ARE RATHER LOW SATURDAY EVENING AND AGAIN
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.  HOWEVER...STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND HIGH
SEAS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO RESULT IN MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND
BEACH EROSION ALONG THE EASTERN MA COAST...PARTICULARLY THE NORTH
SIDE OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET HARBOR DURING BOTH HIGH TIDE CYCLES.

THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY REVOLVES AROUND WHEN AND HOW STRONG THE
WINDS/SEAS WILL GET.  THE MODELS SEEM TO BE SHOWING TWO PULSES OF
WIND WITH TWO WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE.  THE FIRST ONE APPEARS TO BE
SATURDAY EVENING WITH THE SECOND ONE SUNDAY MORNING.  THE POTENTIAL
CONTINUES FOR WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 KNOTS AND SEAS BUILDING TO 20 FEET
ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS EAST OF MASSACHUSETTS.  THE TREND OF THE 12Z
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TO SHOW THE STRONGEST WINDS/HIGHEST SEAS WITH THE
SATURDAY EVENING PULSE.  WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE HOW THE MODELS
TREND...BUT STILL FEEL BOTH HIGH TIDE CYCLES ARE AT RISK WITH A 1 TO
2 FOOT STORM SURGE.

AREAS OF GREATEST CONCERN APPEAR TO BE THE NORTH SIDE OF CAPE
COD...SUCH AS SANDWICH...BARNSTABLE...DENNIS...BREWSTER AND POSSIBLY
EASTHAM. OTHER TYPICAL HOT SPOTS WILL BE SALISBURY AND PLUM
ISLAND...HULL...SCITUATE AND PERHAPS SANDWICH HARBOR AND NANTUCKET
HARBOR. AGAIN...THE MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AS
WELL AS BEACH EROSION.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ231>234-250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ230-
     236-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ235-237-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/RLG
NEAR TERM...EVT
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/RLG/EVT
MARINE...WTB/RLG/EVT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...STAFF




000
FXUS61 KOKX 310600
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
200 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY AND TRACKS NORTHEAST. A SECONDARY
LOW FORMING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON SATURDAY WILL INTENSIFY
AND HEAD NORTHEAST TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY SUNDAY EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS STORM FROM MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL PASS TO THE NORTH ON TUESDAY...
FOLLOWED BY A SERIES OF FAST MOVING COLD FRONTS WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MINOR CHANGES MADE THIS UPDATE...MAINLY TO CLEAN UP HOURLY
TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT TRENDS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BASED ON
LATEST GUIDANCE AND TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS. THE FORECAST OVERALL
APPEARS ON TRACK.

WITH WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION...WIND IS NEARLY
CALM.

STILL ON TRACK MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER CANNOT
RULE OUT FEW-SCT LOWER CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
SHORTWAVE AND WEAK POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION TRACKS OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST...WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE
CAROLINAS. MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE CARVES OUT LOW PRESSURE FRIDAY
NIGHT AS IT ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE MAIN TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES.

WEAK INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS NW FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LOW
LATER FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH SOME SUPPORT ALOFT...AND A
MOISTENING COLUMN DUE TO INCREASING EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW BELOW H8
HPA...EXPECT LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BETTER CHANCE ACROSS THE EASTERN
ZONES.

TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL DUE TO
INCREASING CLOUDS AND NE FLOW. NEAR NORMAL READINGS ANTICIPATED
FRIDAY NIGHT. FOLLOWED A MOS BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GUIDANCE REMAINS MOSTLY CONSISTENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF A STORM
DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST THIS WEEKEND. FIRST...LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ALONG AN OFFSHORE FRONT WILL BRING MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN TO
THE AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER ERN LONG ISLAND/SE CT WITH CAT
POP...WITH LIKELY POP AS FAR BACK AS NYC METRO. THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS DURING THE DAY SAT
BETWEEN THE LATEST RUNS OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE...WITH THE LATEST
GFS SOONER AND A LITTLE FARTHER EAST...AND THE ECMWF WETTER AND
LATER OUT EAST...HAVE SMOOTHED OUT THESE DIFFERENCES FOR NOW WITH
A GENERAL ALL DAY EVENT.

FOCUS OF RAIN SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE EAST SAT NIGHT...WITH
DECREASING POP AS THIS FIRST LOW LIFTS TO THE NE. PRECIP COULD
BRIEFLY END AS SOME SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS WELL NORTH/WEST. AS A STRONGER LOW FORMS NEAR CAPE
HATTERAS AND THEN TRACKS OUTSIDE THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK BY
DAYBREAK SUNDAY...ITS RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE AS IT FAILS
TO PHASE WITH THE UPPER TROUGH TO ITS WEST. ITS MORE IMPORTANT
IMPACTS WILL BE AND COOLER CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY...WITH A BRISK N
FLOW AS AS THE LOW INTENSIFIES AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
AROUND BETWEEN IT AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST. THERE
SHOULD ALSO BE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY STRATO CUMULUS AS AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS. HIGHS WILL ONLY BARELY REACH 50 IN NYC METRO
AND LONG ISLAND...AND REMAIN IN THE 40S INLAND.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT SUNDAY NIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...BUT REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT THE BOUNDARY LAYER
FROM COMPLETELY DECOUPLING IN MOST PLACES. ASA RESULT STUCK CLOSE
TO GUIDANCE LOWS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND DID NOT UNDERCUT...WITH LOWS
25-30 WELL INLAND...LOWER 30S MOST ELSEWHERE...AND MID 30S FOR
NYC.

AFTER ONE MORE COOL DAY ON MON WITH HIGHS AGAIN IN THE UPPER 40S
AND LOWER 50S...TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE
MID WEEK PERIOD AS A WARM FRONT PASSES TO THE NORTH AND HIGH
PRESSURE PASSES TO THE EAST. SHOULD THEN SEE A SERIES OF
WEAK...FAST MOVING COLD FRONTS PASSING THROUGH IN FAST QUASI-
ZONAL FLOW...WITH CHANCE POP FOR RAIN SHOWERS NORTH/WEST OF NYC
ON WED...AND THROUGHOUT THE AREA WED NIGHT INTO THU.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA...LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. THE LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL INTENSIFY
AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

WINDS...N LESS THAN 10 KT THROUGH SUNRISE...BECOMING E NEAR 10 KT BY
15Z...THEN NE INCREASING TO NEAR 15 KT WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KT AFT 06Z
SAT ALONG THE COAST...INCLUDING THE NYC METRO TERMINALS.

CLOUDS...SCT-BKN 4THSD-5THSD FT THROUGH SUNRISE. VFR CIGS 4THSD-5THSD
FT DEVELOPING FM 14Z-18Z FROM SE TO NW. TIMING WITHIN +/- 2 HOURS.
MVFR CIGS FCST WITH ARRIVAL OF LIGHT RAIN AFT SUNSET THIS EVENING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRI NIGHT-SAT NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER IN RAIN. NE-N WINDS 20-25G30-35KT.
.SUNDAY...VFR. NW WINDS 20-25G30-35KT.
.MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
MADE MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE.

WIND REMAINS NORTHWEST AROUND 12 KT OR LESS WITH MINIMAL
GUSTS...AND SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. SEAS RUNNING AROUND 2 FT
ON THE OCEAN AND 1 FT OR LESS ON THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS.

WINDS REMAIN GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...
THEN WINDS INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BEGINS TO INCREASE...WITH THIS MOST NOTABLE AT FIRST OVER THE
EASTERN MOST COASTAL OCEAN WATERS. E-NE WINDS CONTINUE TO
INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT TO SCA THRESHOLDS.

RELATIVELY TRANQUIL SEAS BUILD LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
WINDS INCREASE. SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SAT...BUT
IT IS STILL UNCERTAIN WHETHER GALES WILL DEVELOP THAT EARLY DUE
TO TIMING UNCERTAINTY OF AN INITIAL LOW PASSING TO THE SE. GALES
APPEAR MORE LIKELY LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS STRONGER LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND PASSES TO THE SE...WITH CAA OVER STILL
RELATIVELY MILD WATERS AND A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT.

AFTER SOME LINGERING GALES ON THE ERN OCEAN WATERS SUNDAY
EVENING...SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD OTHERWISE FOLLOW FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MON FOR MOST WATERS. THEN QUIET CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO
ALL WATERS BY MON NIGHT. INCREASING SW FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
COULD BRING A RETURN OF SCA CONDITIONS TO THE ERN OCEAN WATERS
LATE TUE NIGHT-WED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL FROM FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN UNDER A
HALF INCH...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS GENERALLY ACROSS ERN LONG
ISLAND AND SE CT. NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC IMPACT EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/PW
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/MET/PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...GC
MARINE...GOODMAN/MALOIT/MET/PW
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/PW







000
FXUS61 KALY 310549
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
150 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TODAY. EVEN COLDER AIR WILL
ARRIVE DURING THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG STORM FORMS WELL OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. THE COLDER AIR WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1230 AM EDT...A CHILLY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION BUT
TEMPERATURES WERE SOMEWHAT VARIABLE DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND IN SOME
CASES SOME LOCAL TERRAIN INDUCED BREEZES. WE DECIDED NOT TO TINKER
WITH ANY LOWS AS EVEN DOWN AT POUGHKEEPSIE...WHERE IT WAS STILL IN
THE MID 40S...MONTOGMERY AND PHILMONT WERE ONLY 35!

IT WILL REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY BOTTOMING
OUT IN THE 30S...LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS THE CAPITAL REGION. THE
WIND WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MAIN FEATURE TO MONITOR DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE A
STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL WAVE CURRENTLY DIVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES PER LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. MODELS ARE NOW IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT THIS WAVE WILL
DIVE SOUTH AND CLOSE-OFF OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS
BY FRIDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
VIRGINIA COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING BUT THIS LOW WILL TRACK WELL TO
THE EAST OF OUR AREA LATER SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
MINIMAL IMPACTS FOR MOST AREAS. EXCEPTION COULD BE OVER THE FAR
EAST WHERE SOME STEADIER PRECIPITATION MIGHT DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL
OR WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR SATURDAY EVENING
DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE STORM. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING THAT THE SHIELD OF STEADY
PRECIPITATION WILL GET AS FAR WEST AS CENTRAL MASS... WHILE THE
NAM IS A BIT FARTHER EAST.

OTHERWISE THE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT PERIOD WILL BE
COOL WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.
HAVE GONE WITH POP VALUES MAINLY NEAR 30 PERCENT FROM FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT TO COVER FOR THIS. EXPECT LOWEST POPS TO BE
IN THE HUDSON VALLEY. ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WILL
BE WEST OF THE CATSKILLS AS THE FLOW WILL BE NNW INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING
A DRY UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY BUT WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE MODERATING WEATHER AS THE
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD
THE NORTH ATLANTIC WITH RIDGING BUILDING NORTHEAST FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH A WARMING TREND. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL PASS EAST
ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS... FOLLOWED
BY COOLER BUT NOT REALLY VERY COLD WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK. GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AND
CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE LATER TIME PERIODS OF THE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF
TAF SITES THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 06Z SATURDAY.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR FOG CONDITIONS AT
KGFL/KPSF FOR A FEW HOURS EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES TO START THE TAF PERIOD WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING
CLOUDS ON FRIDAY...WITH MAINLY A BKN/OVC DECK OF 4000 TO 5000 FEET
ACROSS THE REGION MOST OF FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH A COUPLE OF HOURS
AFTER SUNRISE...THEN EASTERLY AT 5 KTS OR LESS THEREAFTER.

OUTLOOK...
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...SHSN.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...ESP AT
NIGHT WHEN VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT. WINDS WILL NE NORTHWEST
AT 5 TO 15 MPH TODAY...AND LIGHT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRODUCES SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

ANY PRECIP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT...AND BASIN
AVERAGE AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW RIVER LEVELS TO HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...











000
FXUS61 KALY 310431
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1231 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TODAY. EVEN COLDER AIR WILL
ARRIVE DURING THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG STORM FORMS WELL OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. THE COLDER AIR WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1230 AM EDT...A CHILLY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION BUT
TEMPERATURES WERE SOMEWHAT VARIABLE DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND IN SOME
CASES SOME LOCAL TERRAIN INDUCED BREEZES. WE DECIDED NOT TO TINKER
WITH ANY LOWS AS EVEN DOWN AT POUGHKEEPSIE...WHERE IT WAS STILL IN
THE MID 40S...MONTOGMERY AND PHILMONT WERE ONLY 35!

IT WILL REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY BOTTOMING
OUT IN THE 30S...LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS THE CAPITAL REGION. THE
WIND WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MAIN FEATURE TO MONITOR DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE A
STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL WAVE CURRENTLY DIVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES PER LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. MODELS ARE NOW IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT THIS WAVE WILL
DIVE SOUTH AND CLOSE-OFF OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS
BY FRIDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
VIRGINIA COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING BUT THIS LOW WILL TRACK WELL TO
THE EAST OF OUR AREA LATER SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
MINIMAL IMPACTS FOR MOST AREAS. EXCEPTION COULD BE OVER THE FAR
EAST WHERE SOME STEADIER PRECIPITATION MIGHT DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL
OR WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR SATURDAY EVENING
DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE STORM. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING THAT THE SHIELD OF STEADY
PRECIPITATION WILL GET AS FAR WEST AS CENTRAL MASS... WHILE THE
NAM IS A BIT FARTHER EAST.

OTHERWISE THE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT PERIOD WILL BE
COOL WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.
HAVE GONE WITH POP VALUES MAINLY NEAR 30 PERCENT FROM FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT TO COVER FOR THIS. EXPECT LOWEST POPS TO BE
IN THE HUDSON VALLEY. ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WILL
BE WEST OF THE CATSKILLS AS THE FLOW WILL BE NNW INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING
A DRY UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY BUT WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE MODERATING WEATHER AS THE
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD
THE NORTH ATLANTIC WITH RIDGING BUILDING NORTHEAST FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH A WARMING TREND. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL PASS EAST
ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS... FOLLOWED
BY COOLER BUT NOT REALLY VERY COLD WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK. GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AND
CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE LATER TIME PERIODS OF THE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 00Z SATURDAY. SKIES WILL BE SCT-BKN
FROM 4-6 KFT THIS EVENING...THEN SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT WITH MAINLY SCT CLOUD CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SOME HIGH
CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY
ALONG WITH SCT STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS BUT AGAIN CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE DAY. SKIES WILL TURN OVC DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH CIGS MAINLY ARND 10 KFT.

WINDS WILL BE WNW AT 5 TO 10 THIS EVENING... BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT THEN NE-SE AT 4-5 KTS ON FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...ESP AT
NIGHT WHEN VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT. WINDS WILL NE NORTHWEST
AT 5 TO 15 MPH TODAY...AND LIGHT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRODUCES SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

ANY PRECIP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT...AND BASIN
AVERAGE AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW RIVER LEVELS TO HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...








000
FXUS61 KOKX 310406 CCA
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1206 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY AND TRACKS NORTHEAST. A SECONDARY
LOW FORMING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON SATURDAY WILL INTENSIFY
AND HEAD NORTHEAST TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY SUNDAY EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS STORM FROM MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL PASS TO THE NORTH ON TUESDAY...
FOLLOWED BY A SERIES OF FAST MOVING COLD FRONTS WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
MINOR CHANGES MADE THIS UPDATE...MAINLY TO CLEAN UP HOURLY
TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT TRENDS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BASED ON
LATEST GUIDANCE AND TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS. THE FORECAST OVERALL
APPEARS ON TRACK.

WITH WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION...WIND IS NEARLY
CALM.

STILL ON TRACK MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER CANNOT
RULE OUT FEW-SCT LOWER CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SHORTWAVE AND WEAK POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION TRACKS OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST...WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE
CAROLINAS. MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE CARVES OUT LOW PRESSURE FRIDAY
NIGHT AS IT ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE MAIN TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES.

WEAK INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS NW FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LOW
LATER FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH SOME SUPPORT ALOFT...AND A
MOISTENING COLUMN DUE TO INCREASING EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW BELOW H8
HPA...EXPECT LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BETTER CHANCE ACROSS THE EASTERN
ZONES.

TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL DUE TO
INCREASING CLOUDS AND NE FLOW. NEAR NORMAL READINGS ANTICIPATED
FRIDAY NIGHT. FOLLOWED A MOS BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GUIDANCE REMAINS MOSTLY CONSISTENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF A STORM
DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST THIS WEEKEND. FIRST...LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ALONG AN OFFSHORE FRONT WILL BRING MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN TO
THE AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER ERN LONG ISLAND/SE CT WITH CAT
POP...WITH LIKELY POP AS FAR BACK AS NYC METRO. THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS DURING THE DAY SAT
BETWEEN THE LATEST RUNS OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE...WITH THE LATEST
GFS SOONER AND A LITTLE FARTHER EAST...AND THE ECMWF WETTER AND
LATER OUT EAST...HAVE SMOOTHED OUT THESE DIFFERENCES FOR NOW WITH
A GENERAL ALL DAY EVENT.

FOCUS OF RAIN SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE EAST SAT NIGHT...WITH
DECREASING POP AS THIS FIRST LOW LIFTS TO THE NE. PRECIP COULD
BRIEFLY END AS SOME SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS WELL NORTH/WEST. AS A STRONGER LOW FORMS NEAR CAPE
HATTERAS AND THEN TRACKS OUTSIDE THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK BY
DAYBREAK SUNDAY...ITS RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE AS IT FAILS
TO PHASE WITH THE UPPER TROUGH TO ITS WEST. ITS MORE IMPORTANT
IMPACTS WILL BE AND COOLER CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY...WITH A BRISK N
FLOW AS AS THE LOW INTENSIFIES AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
AROUND BETWEEN IT AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST. THERE
SHOULD ALSO BE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY STRATO CUMULUS AS AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS. HIGHS WILL ONLY BARELY REACH 50 IN NYC METRO
AND LONG ISLAND...AND REMAIN IN THE 40S INLAND.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT SUNDAY NIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...BUT REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT THE BOUNDARY LAYER
FROM COMPLETELY DECOUPLING IN MOST PLACES. ASA RESULT STUCK CLOSE
TO GUIDANCE LOWS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND DID NOT UNDERCUT...WITH LOWS
25-30 WELL INLAND...LOWER 30S MOST ELSEWHERE...AND MID 30S FOR
NYC.

AFTER ONE MORE COOL DAY ON MON WITH HIGHS AGAIN IN THE UPPER 40S
AND LOWER 50S...TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE
MID WEEK PERIOD AS A WARM FRONT PASSES TO THE NORTH AND HIGH
PRESSURE PASSES TO THE EAST. SHOULD THEN SEE A SERIES OF
WEAK...FAST MOVING COLD FRONTS PASSING THROUGH IN FAST QUASI-
ZONAL FLOW...WITH CHANCE POP FOR RAIN SHOWERS NORTH/WEST OF NYC
ON WED...AND THROUGHOUT THE AREA WED NIGHT INTO THU.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY...WHILE LOW PRESSURE DROPS SE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. A
SECONDARY COASTAL LOW THEN DEEPENS ON FRIDAY AND TRACKS NE OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.

EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS BY
LATE FRI AFTERNOON. HIGHER CONFIDENCE IS AFTER 00Z SAT WITH THE
ONSET OF -RA.

WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE N OVERNIGHT AND NE ON FRIDAY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRI NIGHT-SAT NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER. PCPN MAINLY RAIN...BUT SNOW
MAY MIX IN ACROSS THE INTERIOR SUN NIGHT. NE-N WINDS
15-20G25-35KT.
.SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. AFT STRATO CU WITH ISOLATED
FLURRIES/SPRINKLES. NW WINDS 20-25G30-35KT.
.MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
MADE MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE.

WIND REMAINS NORTHWEST AROUND 12 KT OR LESS WITH MINIMAL
GUSTS...AND SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. SEAS RUNNING AROUND 2 FT
ON THE OCEAN AND 1 FT OR LESS ON THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS.

WINDS REMAIN GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...
THEN WINDS INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BEGINS TO INCREASE...WITH THIS MOST NOTABLE AT FIRST OVER THE
EASTERN MOST COASTAL OCEAN WATERS. E-NE WINDS CONTINUE TO
INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT TO SCA THRESHOLDS.

RELATIVELY TRANQUIL SEAS BUILD LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
WINDS INCREASE. SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SAT...BUT
IT IS STILL UNCERTAIN WHETHER GALES WILL DEVELOP THAT EARLY DUE
TO TIMING UNCERTAINTY OF AN INITIAL LOW PASSING TO THE SE. GALES
APPEAR MORE LIKELY LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS STRONGER LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND PASSES TO THE SE...WITH CAA OVER STILL
RELATIVELY MILD WATERS AND A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT.

AFTER SOME LINGERING GALES ON THE ERN OCEAN WATERS SUNDAY
EVENING...SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD OTHERWISE FOLLOW FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MON FOR MOST WATERS. THEN QUIET CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO
ALL WATERS BY MON NIGHT. INCREASING SW FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
COULD BRING A RETURN OF SCA CONDITIONS TO THE ERN OCEAN WATERS
LATE TUE NIGHT-WED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL FROM FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN UNDER A
HALF INCH...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS GENERALLY ACROSS ERN LONG
ISLAND AND SE CT. NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC IMPACT EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/PW
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/MET/PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...MALOIT/MET/GOODMAN/PW
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/PW







000
FXUS61 KOKX 310406 CCA
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1206 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY AND TRACKS NORTHEAST. A SECONDARY
LOW FORMING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON SATURDAY WILL INTENSIFY
AND HEAD NORTHEAST TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY SUNDAY EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS STORM FROM MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL PASS TO THE NORTH ON TUESDAY...
FOLLOWED BY A SERIES OF FAST MOVING COLD FRONTS WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
MINOR CHANGES MADE THIS UPDATE...MAINLY TO CLEAN UP HOURLY
TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT TRENDS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BASED ON
LATEST GUIDANCE AND TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS. THE FORECAST OVERALL
APPEARS ON TRACK.

WITH WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION...WIND IS NEARLY
CALM.

STILL ON TRACK MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER CANNOT
RULE OUT FEW-SCT LOWER CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SHORTWAVE AND WEAK POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION TRACKS OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST...WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE
CAROLINAS. MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE CARVES OUT LOW PRESSURE FRIDAY
NIGHT AS IT ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE MAIN TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES.

WEAK INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS NW FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LOW
LATER FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH SOME SUPPORT ALOFT...AND A
MOISTENING COLUMN DUE TO INCREASING EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW BELOW H8
HPA...EXPECT LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BETTER CHANCE ACROSS THE EASTERN
ZONES.

TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL DUE TO
INCREASING CLOUDS AND NE FLOW. NEAR NORMAL READINGS ANTICIPATED
FRIDAY NIGHT. FOLLOWED A MOS BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GUIDANCE REMAINS MOSTLY CONSISTENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF A STORM
DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST THIS WEEKEND. FIRST...LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ALONG AN OFFSHORE FRONT WILL BRING MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN TO
THE AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER ERN LONG ISLAND/SE CT WITH CAT
POP...WITH LIKELY POP AS FAR BACK AS NYC METRO. THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS DURING THE DAY SAT
BETWEEN THE LATEST RUNS OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE...WITH THE LATEST
GFS SOONER AND A LITTLE FARTHER EAST...AND THE ECMWF WETTER AND
LATER OUT EAST...HAVE SMOOTHED OUT THESE DIFFERENCES FOR NOW WITH
A GENERAL ALL DAY EVENT.

FOCUS OF RAIN SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE EAST SAT NIGHT...WITH
DECREASING POP AS THIS FIRST LOW LIFTS TO THE NE. PRECIP COULD
BRIEFLY END AS SOME SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS WELL NORTH/WEST. AS A STRONGER LOW FORMS NEAR CAPE
HATTERAS AND THEN TRACKS OUTSIDE THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK BY
DAYBREAK SUNDAY...ITS RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE AS IT FAILS
TO PHASE WITH THE UPPER TROUGH TO ITS WEST. ITS MORE IMPORTANT
IMPACTS WILL BE AND COOLER CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY...WITH A BRISK N
FLOW AS AS THE LOW INTENSIFIES AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
AROUND BETWEEN IT AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST. THERE
SHOULD ALSO BE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY STRATO CUMULUS AS AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS. HIGHS WILL ONLY BARELY REACH 50 IN NYC METRO
AND LONG ISLAND...AND REMAIN IN THE 40S INLAND.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT SUNDAY NIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...BUT REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT THE BOUNDARY LAYER
FROM COMPLETELY DECOUPLING IN MOST PLACES. ASA RESULT STUCK CLOSE
TO GUIDANCE LOWS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND DID NOT UNDERCUT...WITH LOWS
25-30 WELL INLAND...LOWER 30S MOST ELSEWHERE...AND MID 30S FOR
NYC.

AFTER ONE MORE COOL DAY ON MON WITH HIGHS AGAIN IN THE UPPER 40S
AND LOWER 50S...TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE
MID WEEK PERIOD AS A WARM FRONT PASSES TO THE NORTH AND HIGH
PRESSURE PASSES TO THE EAST. SHOULD THEN SEE A SERIES OF
WEAK...FAST MOVING COLD FRONTS PASSING THROUGH IN FAST QUASI-
ZONAL FLOW...WITH CHANCE POP FOR RAIN SHOWERS NORTH/WEST OF NYC
ON WED...AND THROUGHOUT THE AREA WED NIGHT INTO THU.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY...WHILE LOW PRESSURE DROPS SE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. A
SECONDARY COASTAL LOW THEN DEEPENS ON FRIDAY AND TRACKS NE OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.

EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS BY
LATE FRI AFTERNOON. HIGHER CONFIDENCE IS AFTER 00Z SAT WITH THE
ONSET OF -RA.

WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE N OVERNIGHT AND NE ON FRIDAY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRI NIGHT-SAT NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER. PCPN MAINLY RAIN...BUT SNOW
MAY MIX IN ACROSS THE INTERIOR SUN NIGHT. NE-N WINDS
15-20G25-35KT.
.SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. AFT STRATO CU WITH ISOLATED
FLURRIES/SPRINKLES. NW WINDS 20-25G30-35KT.
.MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
MADE MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE.

WIND REMAINS NORTHWEST AROUND 12 KT OR LESS WITH MINIMAL
GUSTS...AND SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. SEAS RUNNING AROUND 2 FT
ON THE OCEAN AND 1 FT OR LESS ON THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS.

WINDS REMAIN GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...
THEN WINDS INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BEGINS TO INCREASE...WITH THIS MOST NOTABLE AT FIRST OVER THE
EASTERN MOST COASTAL OCEAN WATERS. E-NE WINDS CONTINUE TO
INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT TO SCA THRESHOLDS.

RELATIVELY TRANQUIL SEAS BUILD LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
WINDS INCREASE. SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SAT...BUT
IT IS STILL UNCERTAIN WHETHER GALES WILL DEVELOP THAT EARLY DUE
TO TIMING UNCERTAINTY OF AN INITIAL LOW PASSING TO THE SE. GALES
APPEAR MORE LIKELY LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS STRONGER LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND PASSES TO THE SE...WITH CAA OVER STILL
RELATIVELY MILD WATERS AND A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT.

AFTER SOME LINGERING GALES ON THE ERN OCEAN WATERS SUNDAY
EVENING...SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD OTHERWISE FOLLOW FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MON FOR MOST WATERS. THEN QUIET CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO
ALL WATERS BY MON NIGHT. INCREASING SW FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
COULD BRING A RETURN OF SCA CONDITIONS TO THE ERN OCEAN WATERS
LATE TUE NIGHT-WED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL FROM FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN UNDER A
HALF INCH...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS GENERALLY ACROSS ERN LONG
ISLAND AND SE CT. NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC IMPACT EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/PW
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/MET/PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...MALOIT/MET/GOODMAN/PW
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/PW







000
FXUS61 KOKX 310404
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1204 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY AND TRACKS NORTHEAST. A SECONDARY
LOW FORMING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON SATURDAY WILL INTENSIFY
AND HEAD NORTHEAST TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY SUNDAY EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS STORM FROM MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL PASS TO THE NORTH ON TUESDAY...
FOLLOWED BY A SERIES OF FAST MOVING COLD FRONTS WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
MINOR CHANGES MADE THIS UPDATE...MAINLY TO CLEAN UP HOURLY
TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT TRENDS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BASED ON
LATEST GUIDANCE AND TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS. THE FORECAST OVERALL
APPEARS ON TRACK.

WITH WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION...WIND IS NEARLY
CALM.

STILL ON TRACK MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER CANNOT
RULE OUT FEW-SCT LOWER CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SHORTWAVE AND WEAK POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION TRACKS OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST...WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE
CAROLINAS. MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE CARVES OUT LOW PRESSURE FRIDAY
NIGHT AS IT ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE MAIN TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES.

WEAK INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS NW FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LOW
LATER FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH SOME SUPPORT ALOFT...AND A
MOISTENING COLUMN DUE TO INCREASING EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW BELOW H8
HPA...EXPECT LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BETTER CHANCE ACROSS THE EASTERN
ZONES.

TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL DUE TO
INCREASING CLOUDS AND NE FLOW. NEAR NORMAL READINGS ANTICIPATED
FRIDAY NIGHT. FOLLOWED A MOS BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GUIDANCE REMAINS MOSTLY CONSISTENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF A STORM
DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST THIS WEEKEND. FIRST...LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ALONG AN OFFSHORE FRONT WILL BRING MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN TO
THE AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER ERN LONG ISLAND/SE CT WITH CAT
POP...WITH LIKELY POP AS FAR BACK AS NYC METRO. THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS DURING THE DAY SAT
BETWEEN THE LATEST RUNS OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE...WITH THE LATEST
GFS SOONER AND A LITTLE FARTHER EAST...AND THE ECMWF WETTER AND
LATER OUT EAST...HAVE SMOOTHED OUT THESE DIFFERENCES FOR NOW WITH
A GENERAL ALL DAY EVENT.

FOCUS OF RAIN SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE EAST SAT NIGHT...WITH
DECREASING POP AS THIS FIRST LOW LIFTS TO THE NE. PRECIP COULD
BRIEFLY END AS SOME SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS WELL NORTH/WEST. AS A STRONGER LOW FORMS NEAR CAPE
HATTERAS AND THEN TRACKS OUTSIDE THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK BY
DAYBREAK SUNDAY...ITS RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE AS IT FAILS
TO PHASE WITH THE UPPER TROUGH TO ITS WEST. ITS MORE IMPORTANT
IMPACTS WILL BE AND COOLER CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY...WITH A BRISK N
FLOW AS AS THE LOW INTENSIFIES AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
AROUND BETWEEN IT AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST. THERE
SHOULD ALSO BE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY STRATO CUMULUS AS AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS. HIGHS WILL ONLY BARELY REACH 50 IN NYC METRO
AND LONG ISLAND...AND REMAIN IN THE 40S INLAND.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT SUNDAY NIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...BUT REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT THE BOUNDARY LAYER
FROM COMPLETELY DECOUPLING IN MOST PLACES. ASA RESULT STUCK CLOSE
TO GUIDANCE LOWS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND DID NOT UNDERCUT...WITH LOWS
25-30 WELL INLAND...LOWER 30S MOST ELSEWHERE...AND MID 30S FOR
NYC.

AFTER ONE MORE COOL DAY ON MON WITH HIGHS AGAIN IN THE UPPER 40S
AND LOWER 50S...TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE
MID WEEK PERIOD AS A WARM FRONT PASSES TO THE NORTH AND HIGH
PRESSURE PASSES TO THE EAST. SHOULD THEN SEE A SERIES OF
WEAK...FAST MOVING COLD FRONTS PASSING THROUGH IN FAST QUASI-
ZONAL FLOW...WITH CHANCE POP FOR RAIN SHOWERS NORTH/WEST OF NYC
ON WED...AND THROUGHOUT THE AREA WED NIGHT INTO THU.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY...WHILE LOW PRESSURE DROPS SE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. A
SECONDARY COASTAL LOW THEN DEEPENS ON FRIDAY AND TRACKS NE OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.

EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS BY
LATE FRI AFTERNOON. HIGHER CONFIDENCE IS AFTER 00Z SAT WITH THE
ONSET OF -RA.

WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE N OVERNIGHT AND NE ON FRIDAY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRI NIGHT-SAT NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER. PCPN MAINLY RAIN...BUT SNOW
MAY MIX IN ACROSS THE INTERIOR SUN NIGHT. NE-N WINDS
15-20G25-35KT.
.SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. AFT STRATO CU WITH ISOLATED
FLURRIES/SPRINKLES. NW WINDS 20-25G30-35KT.
.MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
MADE MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE.

WIND REMAINS NORTHWEST AROUND 12 KT OR LESS WITH MINIMAL
GUSTS...AND SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. SEAS RUNNING 2 TO 3 FT ON
THE OCEAN AND 1 FT OR LESS ON THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS.

WINDS REMAIN GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...
THEN WINDS INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BEGINS TO INCREASE...WITH THIS MOST NOTABLE AT FIRST OVER THE
EASTERN MOST COASTAL OCEAN WATERS. E-NE WINDS CONTINUE TO
INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT TO SCA THRESHOLDS.

RELATIVELY TRANQUIL SEAS BUILD LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
WINDS INCREASE. SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SAT...BUT
IT IS STILL UNCERTAIN WHETHER GALES WILL DEVELOP THAT EARLY DUE
TO TIMING UNCERTAINTY OF AN INITIAL LOW PASSING TO THE SE. GALES
APPEAR MORE LIKELY LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS STRONGER LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND PASSES TO THE SE...WITH CAA OVER STILL
RELATIVELY MILD WATERS AND A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT.

AFTER SOME LINGERING GALES ON THE ERN OCEAN WATERS SUNDAY
EVENING...SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD OTHERWISE FOLLOW FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MON FOR MOST WATERS. THEN QUIET CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO
ALL WATERS BY MON NIGHT. INCREASING SW FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
COULD BRING A RETURN OF SCA CONDITIONS TO THE ERN OCEAN WATERS
LATE TUE NIGHT-WED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL FROM FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN UNDER A
HALF INCH...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS GENERALLY ACROSS ERN LONG
ISLAND AND SE CT. NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC IMPACT EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/PW
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/MET/PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...MALOIT/MET/GOODMAN/PW
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/PW





000
FXUS61 KBOX 310300
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1100 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. A DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM WILL MOVE UP
THE COAST SATURDAY AND PASS OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ONE OR TWO COLD FRONTS MAY CROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
1030 PM UPDATE...
LIGHT PRES GRADIENT CONTINUES AS HIGH PRES REMAINS ACROSS THE
REGION AT 02Z. WINDS ARE GENERALLY CALM...THOUGH HIGHER TERRAIN
HAS A BIT MORE WINDS. NOTING NW WIND AT 8-10 KT AT KORH AND NNW
WIND AT 8 KT AT KMQE...BOTH ELEVATED LOCATIONS. TEMPS HAVE FALLEN
BACK TO THE MID-UPPER 30S AT THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS THANKS
TO RADIATIONAL COOLING...DOWN TO 36 AT KORE AND 37 AT KTAN.

SKIES WERE BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR AT MOST LOCATIONS AS NOTED ON
LATEST IR SATELLITE TRENDS...THOUGH AREA OF CLOUDS CONTINUES
ACROSS SE MA AS WELL AS ACROSS S NH/NW MA.

WHERE TEMPS WERE FALLING BACK CLOSE TO DEWPTS...HAVE ADDED MENTION
OF PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT...GENERALLY IN THE NORMALLY PRONE
AREAS ACROSS E INTERIOR MA AS WELL AS THE CT VALLEY INTO NE CT AND
EVEN ON MARTHAS VINEYARD WHERE TEMPS HAVE ALSO FALLEN BELOW 40
WITH CALM WINDS.

HAVE UPDATED FORECAST TO BRING CONDITIONS CURRENT AND WORK CHANGES
MENTIONED ABOVE INTO NEAR TERM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
EXPECT LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT...WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
COMPLETELY RADIATING. ANYWHERE THE WINDS DO DROP OFF TO CALM...
THE TEMPERATURES WILL DROP SEVERAL DEGREES FAIRLY QUICKLY.
OVERALL...EXPECT LOWS IN THE 30S AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...ANOTHER QUIET DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE LIFTS TO THE NORTH.
WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE EAST AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TOWARDS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FROM THE CAROLINA COAST...EXPECT IT TO FEEL A
BIT COOLER THAN TODAY.  OTHERWISE...INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE
APPROACHING COASTAL LOW.

FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS WITH THE UPCOMING STORM MOST OF THIS WILL AFFECT THE
WEEKENDS WEATHER SO WILL MOSTLY DISCUSS IT IN THE LONG TERM SECTION.
SHOULD MOSTLY SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.  THIS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...RAIN
AND/OR SHOWERS WILL LIKELY MOVE ONTO THE SOUTH COAST AND INTO
SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS TOWARDS DAYBREAK SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...

DEEP AMPLITUDE TROUGHS ON BOTH COASTS SATURDAY WITH A RIDGE IN
BETWEEN. SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN TROUGH GENERATES A
CUTOFF UPPER LOW WITH TWO JET STREAMS...A NORTHERN STREAM ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER AND A SOUTHERN STREAM MOVING WITH THE SHORT WAVE.
THE PATTERN SHIFTS EAST DURING THE WEEK WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING OVER
NEW ENGLAND. THE PATTERN THEN TRANSFORMS TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW.
REMAINS OF THE PACIFIC COAST TROUGH MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND MIDWEEK.

COLDER THAN NORMAL HEIGHTS WITH THE WEEKEND TROUGH. THESE BUILD TO
NORMAL OR A LITTLE MILDER THAN NORMAL BY MIDWEEK. THIS POINTS TO A
COLDER THAN NORMAL WEEKEND TRENDING TO NORMAL TEMPS BY MIDWEEK.

THE GFS...WHILE SERVICEABLE...IS A BIT OF AN OUTLIER. FOR THE GRIDS
WE WILL USE A BLEND OF MODEL DATA INCLUDING HPC AND /WHERE POSSIBLE/
THE 12Z ECMWF.

THE DAILIES...

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...

COASTAL STORM CONTINUES TO BE INDICATED FOR SATURDAY AND EARLY
SUNDAY. SUPPORT COMES FROM TWO SETS OF FORCING
MECHANISMS...SUGGESTING A TWO-PART EVENT. BUT FINE-TUNING THE TIMING
OF THESE PARTS IS DIFFICULT THIS FAR OUT. INITIAL FORCING COMES FROM
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF NORTHERN STREAM JET SATURDAY MORNING.
SECOND FORCING COMES FROM LEFT EXIT REGION OF JET SUPPORTING
SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE EASTERN TROUGH LATE
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. EVEN SO...MOST OF THE FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
WITH EACH SEGMENT IS FOCUSED ON THE MARITIMES AND MAINE. THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THIS FORCING SHOULD EXTEND INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WITH THE FIRST AND POSSIBLY THE SECOND OF THE SEGMENTS. WE
EXPECT RAIN SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH HIGHEST POPS OVER
CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS...LESSER VALUES NORTH AND WEST.

STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE AND A 50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WINDY CONDITIONS. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE
OVER THE EASTERN/SOUTHEAST WATERS. STRONGEST LAND WINDS WILL BE OVER
THE OUTER CAPE AND ISLANDS...DIMINISHING FARTHER WEST. HAVE FEATURED
45 KNOTS FOR THE STRONGEST WINDS AND 20-25 KNOTS IN THE INTERIOR.

THE COASTAL STORM WILL PASS US IN PIECES SATURDAY AND LATER SATURDAY
NIGHT...AS NOTED ABOVE. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO DIMINISH WEST TO
EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND END ON THE MASS EAST COAST AROUND OR SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH MOST OF THE STORM SHOULD REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
RAIN.  AS THE WINDS SHIFT FROM NORTHEAST TO NORTHWEST SATURDAY
NIGHT...COLDER AIR WILL BE DRAWN IN WHICH COULD CHANGE THE LAST
SHOWERS OVER TO SNOW. ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE NO MORE THAN A
TRACE. SOME HIGHLANDS SUCH AS IN THE MONADNOCK COULD PICK UP A LIGHT
ACCUMULATION AT STORM/S END.

DRIER AIR SUNDAY WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES. COLD ADVECTION WILL
PROMOTE MIXING THROUGH AT LEAST 850 MB. WINDS IN THIS LAYER WILL BE
35 TO 40 KNOTS...SO EXPECT NORTHWEST GUSTS TO AT LEAST THE LOWER END
OF THIS RANGE. WINDS DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE STORM MOVES
FARTHER AWAY.

MONDAY-TUESDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. MONDAY
SHOULD BE SUNNY AS THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD. MIXING WILL AGAIN
BRING INCREASED WIND GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS IN THE
MIXED LAYER ARE EXPECTED AROUND 30 KNOTS WITH POTENTIAL FOR A
LITTLE STRONGER SPEEDS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH WITH SUNSET.

THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE TUESDAY. THIS WILL MAKE ROOM FOR A WARM
FRONT TO SWING PAST. SUFFICIENT LIFT AND MOISTURE TO SUPPORT MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS...BUT THE BEST WARM FRONTAL LIFT WILL REMAIN TO OUR
NORTH AND WEST SO EXPECT AT LEAST SOME SUN THROUGH THE DAY.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY... LOW CONFIDENCE ON MIDWEEK WEATHER.  AT LEAST
ONE TROUGH IN THE ZONAL FLOW WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THIS TIME. GFS AND ECMWF ARE HINTING AT ONE ON WEDNESDAY...BUT
SHOWING A MORE SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH PASSING ON THURSDAY.  THE FORECAST
WILL HAVE CLOUDS AND LOW-END CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE THROUGH
THE NIGHT TO MVFR/IFR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.  RAIN/SHOWERS EXPECTED
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND INTO SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AS WE NEAR
DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...IFR CIGS AND MVFR OR IFR VSBYS IN PERIODS OF RAIN
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. VFR AND DRIER WEATHER MOVE IN FROM WEST
TO EAST EARLY SUNDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS SATURDAY GUSTING 30-40 KNOTS
ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS AND 25-30 KNOTS IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. WINDS
SHIFT TO NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY WITH GUSTS 40-
45 KNOTS CAPE AND ISLANDS AND 30-35 KNOTS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.

MONDAY...VFR. DAYTIME WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KNOTS
INLAND AND 35 KNOTS CAPE AND ISLANDS...DIMINISHING TOWARD EVENING.

TUESDAY...VFR WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THROUGH FRIDAY WITH WINDS AND SEAS
REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. WINDS SHIFT FROM THE
NORTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST THEN EAST DURING FRIDAY. THESE
EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES THE WATERS FROM THE CAROLINAS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF THE WATERS FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF
FRIDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY...STRONG POTENTIAL FOR HIGH END GALES ON THE OUTER
WATERS WITH GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS. LOW POTENTIAL OF STORM FORCE WINDS
ON THE OUTER WATERS. RAIN WITH INCREASING NORTHEAST WINDS. GALE
FORCE GUSTS EXPECTED ON MOST WATERS.WAVEWATCH MODEL FORECASTS OF
SEA HEIGHTS ARE LOWER THAN OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST. WE HAVE BUMPED
SEAS UP 2-3 FEET WITH 15 FOOT SEAS DEVELOPING EAST OF
MASSACHUSETTS. A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT CONTINUES TO ADDRESS
THIS CONCERN.

SUNDAY...RAIN MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. WINDS SHIFT NORTHWEST WITH GALE
FORCE GUSTS 40-45 KNOTS. EXPECT THESE WINDS TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE
FORCE SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH THE WIND SHIFT...THE ROUGH SEAS WILL
MIGRATE FARTHER OFFSHORE WITH DIMINISHING SEAS CLOSER TO SHORE.
GALE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

MONDAY... GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WITH SPEEDS APPROACHING GALE FORCE
AGAIN DURING THE DAY. WINDS DIMINISH TOWARD EVENING. SEAS WILL
LINGER AT 5-9 FEET ESPECIALLY ON THE OUTER WATERS.  SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS LIKELY...LOW-END CHANCE THAT GALES MAY BE NEEDED ON SOME
OF THE WATERS.

TUESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES ARE RATHER LOW SATURDAY EVENING AND AGAIN
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.  HOWEVER...STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND HIGH
SEAS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO RESULT IN MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND
BEACH EROSION ALONG THE EASTERN MA COAST...PARTICULARLY THE NORTH
SIDE OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET HARBOR DURING BOTH HIGH TIDE CYCLES.

THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY REVOLVES AROUND WHEN AND HOW STRONG THE
WINDS/SEAS WILL GET.  THE MODELS SEEM TO BE SHOWING TWO PULSES OF
WIND WITH TWO WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE.  THE FIRST ONE APPEARS TO BE
SATURDAY EVENING WITH THE SECOND ONE SUNDAY MORNING.  THE POTENTIAL
CONTINUES FOR WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 KNOTS AND SEAS BUILDING TO 20 FEET
ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS EAST OF MASSACHUSETTS.  THE TREND OF THE 12Z
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TO SHOW THE STRONGEST WINDS/HIGHEST SEAS WITH THE
SATURDAY EVENING PULSE.  WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE HOW THE MODELS
TREND...BUT STILL FEEL BOTH HIGH TIDE CYCLES ARE AT RISK WITH A 1 TO
2 FOOT STORM SURGE.

AREAS OF GREATEST CONCERN APPEAR TO BE THE NORTH SIDE OF CAPE
COD...SUCH AS SANDWICH...BARNSTABLE...DENNIS...BREWSTER AND POSSIBLY
EASTHAM. OTHER TYPICAL HOT SPOTS WILL BE SALISBURY AND PLUM
ISLAND...HULL...SCITUATE AND PERHAPS SANDWICH HARBOR AND NANTUCKET
HARBOR. AGAIN...THE MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AS
WELL AS BEACH EROSION.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT TO 8 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ231>234-250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ230-
     236-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM FRIDAY TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ235-237-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/RLG
NEAR TERM...WTB/EVT
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/RLG
MARINE...WTB/RLG/EVT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...STAFF




000
FXUS61 KOKX 310245
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1045 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY AND TRACKS NORTHEAST. A SECONDARY
LOW FORMING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON SATURDAY WILL INTENSIFY
AND HEAD NORTHEAST TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY SUNDAY EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS STORM FROM MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL PASS TO THE NORTH ON TUESDAY...
FOLLOWED BY A SERIES OF FAST MOVING COLD FRONTS WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST WITH MAINLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS. WITH THE WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT WIND WAS
NEARLY CALM ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.

WITH THE CURRENT UPDATE ADJUSTED FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS. OVERNIGHT
LOWS STILL ON TRACK.

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE AND PVA DIVES ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTHWARD. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS THE GULF STATES...MOVING EAST TONIGHT.

AT THE SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND MOVES QUICKLY
NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH. FEW TO SCATTERED CU SHOULD GIVE
WAY TO MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH DO EXPECT FEW
TO SCATTERED LOWER CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL PER MOS
BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SHORTWAVE AND WEAK PVA TRACKS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...WITH SFC
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE CAROLINAS. MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE
CARVES OUT LOW PRESSURE FRIDAY NIGHT AS IT ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE
MAIN TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES.

WEAK INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS NW FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LOW LATER
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH SOME SUPPORT ALOFT...AND A MOISTENING
COLUMN DUE TO INCREASING EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW BELOW H8 HPA...EXPECT
LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BETTER CHANCE ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES.

TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL DUE TO
INCREASING CLOUDS AND NE FLOW. NEAR NORMAL READINGS ANTICIPATED
FRIDAY NIGHT. FOLLOWED A MOS BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GUIDANCE REMAINS MOSTLY CONSISTENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF A STORM
DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST THIS WEEKEND. FIRST...LOW PRESSURE MOVING
ALONG AN OFFSHORE FRONT WILL BRING MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN TO THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER ERN LONG ISLAND/SE CT WITH CAT POP...WITH
LIKELY POP AS FAR BACK AS NYC METRO. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING AND RAINFALL AMTS DURING THE DAY SAT BETWEEN THE LATEST
RUNS OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE...WITH THE LATEST GFS SOONER AND A
LITTLE FARTHER EAST...AND THE ECMWF WETTER AND LATER OUT
EAST...HAVE SMOOTHED OUT THESE DIFFERENCES FOR NOW WITH A GENERAL
ALL DAY EVENT.

FOCUS OF RAIN SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE EAST SAT NIGHT...WITH
DECREASING POP AS THIS FIRST LOW LIFTS TO THE NE. PRECIP COULD
BRIEFLY END AS SOME SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS WELL NORTH/WEST. AS A STRONGER LOW FORMS NEAR CAPE
HATTERAS AND THEN TRACKS OUTSIDE THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK BY DAYBREAK
SUNDAY...ITS RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE AS IT FAILS TO PHASE
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH TO ITS WEST. ITS MORE IMPORTANT IMPACTS WILL
BE AND COOLER CONDS ON SUNDAY...WITH A BRISK N FLOW AS AS THE LOW
INTENSIFIES AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AROUND BETWEEN IT
AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST. THERE SHOULD ALSO BE
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY STRATOCU AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS.
HIGHS WILL ONLY BARELY REACH 50 IN NYC METRO AND LONG ISLAND...AND
REMAIN IN THE 40S INLAND.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT SUNDAY NIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...BUT REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT THE BOUNDARY LAYER FROM
COMPLETELY DECOUPLING IN MOST PLACES. ASA RESULT STUCK CLOSE TO
GUIDANCE LOWS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND DID NOT UNDERCUT...WITH LOWS
25-30 WELL INLAND...LOWER 30S MOST ELSEWHERE...AND MID 30S FOR NYC.

AFTER ONE MORE COOL DAY ON MON WITH HIGHS AGAIN IN THE UPPER 40S AND
LOWER 50S...TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE MID
WEEK PERIOD AS A WARM FRONT PASSES TO THE NORTH AND HIGH PRESSURE
PASSES TO THE EAST. SHOULD THEN SEE A SERIES OF WEAK...FAST MOVING
COLD FRONTS PASSING THROUGH IN FAST QUASI-ZONAL FLOW...WITH CHANCE
POP FOR RAIN SHOWERS NORTH/WEST OF NYC ON WED...AND THROUGHOUT THE
AREA WED NIGHT INTO THU.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY...WHILE LOW PRESSURE DROPS SE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. A
SECONDARY COASTAL LOW THEN DEEPENS ON FRIDAY AND TRACKS NE OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST.

EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS BY LATE
FRI AFTERNOON. HIGHER CONFIDENCE IS AFTER 00Z SAT WITH THE ONSET
OF -RA.

WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE N OVERNIGHT AND NE ON FRIDAY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRI NGT-SAT NGT...MVFR OR LOWER. PCPN MAINLY RAIN...BUT SNOW MAY
MIX IN ACROSS THE INTERIOR SUN NIGHT. NE-N WINDS 15-20G25-35KT.
.SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. AFT STRATO CU WITH ISOLATED
FLURRIES/SPRINKLES. NW WINDS 20-25G30-35KT.
.MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WIND REMAINS NORTHWEST AROUND 12 KT WITH MINIMAL GUSTS. SEAS
RUNNING 2 TO 3 FT ON THE OCEAN AND 1 FT OR LESS ON THE REMAINDER
OF THE WATERS.

AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS THEN MOVES NORTHEASTWARD...NW WINDS WILL
TURN TOWARD THE N TONIGHT. THE WINDS THEN TURN TO THE NE AND
INCREASE LATER IN THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTH. THESE E/NE WINDS INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT...LIKELY TO SCA
THRESHOLDS.

RELATIVELY TRANQUIL SEAS BUILD LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
WINDS INCREASE. SCA CONDS ARE LIKELY BY SAT...BUT IT IS STILL
UNCERTAIN WHETHER GALES WILL DEVELOP THAT EARLY DUE TO TIMING
UNCERTAINTY OF AN INITIAL LOW PASSING TO THE SE. GALES APPEAR MORE
LIKELY LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS STRONGER LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS AND PASSES TO THE SE...WITH CAA OVER STILL RELATIVELY
MILD WATERS AND A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT.

AFTER SOME LINGERING GALES ON THE ERN OCEAN WATERS SUNDAY
EVENING...SCA CONDS SHOULD OTHERWISE FOLLOW FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MON FOR MOST WATERS. THEN QUIET CONDS SHOULD RETURN TO ALL WATERS
BY MON NIGHT. INCREASING SW FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT COULD BRING
A RETURN OF SCA CONDS TO THE ERN OCEAN WATERS LATE TUE NIGHT-WED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL FROM FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN UNDER A
HALF INCH...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS GENERALLY ACROSS ERN LONG
ISLAND AND SE CT. NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC IMPACT EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/PW
NEAR TERM...MET/PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...GOODMAN/MET/PW
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/PW







000
FXUS61 KOKX 310131
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
931 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY AND TRACKS NORTHEAST. A SECONDARY
LOW FORMING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON SATURDAY WILL INTENSIFY
AND HEAD NORTHEAST TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY SUNDAY EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS STORM FROM MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL PASS TO THE NORTH ON TUESDAY...
FOLLOWED BY A SERIES OF FAST MOVING COLD FRONTS WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST WITH MAINLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS. WITH THE WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT WIND WAS
NEARLY CALM ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.

WITH THE CURRENT UPDATE ADJUSTED FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS. OVERNIGHT
LOWS STILL ON TRACK.

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE AND PVA DIVES ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTHWARD. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS THE GULF STATES...MOVING EAST TONIGHT.

AT THE SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND MOVES QUICKLY
NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH. FEW TO SCATTERED CU SHOULD GIVE
WAY TO MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH DO EXPECT FEW
TO SCATTERED LOWER CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL PER MOS
BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SHORTWAVE AND WEAK PVA TRACKS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...WITH SFC
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE CAROLINAS. MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE
CARVES OUT LOW PRESSURE FRIDAY NIGHT AS IT ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE
MAIN TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES.

WEAK INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS NW FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LOW LATER
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH SOME SUPPORT ALOFT...AND A MOISTENING
COLUMN DUE TO INCREASING EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW BELOW H8 HPA...EXPECT
LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BETTER CHANCE ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES.

TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL DUE TO
INCREASING CLOUDS AND NE FLOW. NEAR NORMAL READINGS ANTICIPATED
FRIDAY NIGHT. FOLLOWED A MOS BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GUIDANCE REMAINS MOSTLY CONSISTENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF A STORM
DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST THIS WEEKEND. FIRST...LOW PRESSURE MOVING
ALONG AN OFFSHORE FRONT WILL BRING MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN TO THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER ERN LONG ISLAND/SE CT WITH CAT POP...WITH
LIKELY POP AS FAR BACK AS NYC METRO. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING AND RAINFALL AMTS DURING THE DAY SAT BETWEEN THE LATEST
RUNS OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE...WITH THE LATEST GFS SOONER AND A
LITTLE FARTHER EAST...AND THE ECMWF WETTER AND LATER OUT
EAST...HAVE SMOOTHED OUT THESE DIFFERENCES FOR NOW WITH A GENERAL
ALL DAY EVENT.

FOCUS OF RAIN SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE EAST SAT NIGHT...WITH
DECREASING POP AS THIS FIRST LOW LIFTS TO THE NE. PRECIP COULD
BRIEFLY END AS SOME SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS WELL NORTH/WEST. AS A STRONGER LOW FORMS NEAR CAPE
HATTERAS AND THEN TRACKS OUTSIDE THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK BY DAYBREAK
SUNDAY...ITS RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE AS IT FAILS TO PHASE
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH TO ITS WEST. ITS MORE IMPORTANT IMPACTS WILL
BE AND COOLER CONDS ON SUNDAY...WITH A BRISK N FLOW AS AS THE LOW
INTENSIFIES AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AROUND BETWEEN IT
AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST. THERE SHOULD ALSO BE
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY STRATOCU AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS.
HIGHS WILL ONLY BARELY REACH 50 IN NYC METRO AND LONG ISLAND...AND
REMAIN IN THE 40S INLAND.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT SUNDAY NIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...BUT REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT THE BOUNDARY LAYER FROM
COMPLETELY DECOUPLING IN MOST PLACES. ASA RESULT STUCK CLOSE TO
GUIDANCE LOWS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND DID NOT UNDERCUT...WITH LOWS
25-30 WELL INLAND...LOWER 30S MOST ELSEWHERE...AND MID 30S FOR NYC.

AFTER ONE MORE COOL DAY ON MON WITH HIGHS AGAIN IN THE UPPER 40S AND
LOWER 50S...TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE MID
WEEK PERIOD AS A WARM FRONT PASSES TO THE NORTH AND HIGH PRESSURE
PASSES TO THE EAST. SHOULD THEN SEE A SERIES OF WEAK...FAST MOVING
COLD FRONTS PASSING THROUGH IN FAST QUASI-ZONAL FLOW...WITH CHANCE
POP FOR RAIN SHOWERS NORTH/WEST OF NYC ON WED...AND THROUGHOUT THE
AREA WED NIGHT INTO THU.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY...WHILE LOW PRESSURE DROPS SE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. A
SECONDARY COASTAL LOW THEN DEEPENS ON FRIDAY AND TRACKS NE OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST.

EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS BY LATE
FRI AFTERNOON. HIGHER CONFIDENCE IS AFTER 00Z SAT WITH THE ONSET
OF -RA.

WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE N OVERNIGHT AND NE ON FRIDAY.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRI NGT-SAT NGT...MVFR OR LOWER. PCPN MAINLY RAIN...BUT SNOW MAY
MIX IN ACROSS THE INTERIOR SUN NIGHT. NE-N WINDS 15-20G25-35KT.
.SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. AFT STRATO CU WITH ISOLATED
FLURRIES/SPRINKLES. NW WINDS 20-25G30-35KT.
.MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WIND REMAINS NORTHWEST AROUND 12 KT WITH MINIMAL GUSTS. SEAS
RUNNING 2 TO 3 FT ON THE OCEAN AND 1 FT OR LESS ON THE REMAINDER
OF THE WATERS.

AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS THEN MOVES NORTHEASTWARD...NW WINDS WILL
TURN TOWARD THE N TONIGHT. THE WINDS THEN TURN TO THE NE AND
INCREASE LATER IN THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTH. THESE E/NE WINDS INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT...LIKELY TO SCA
THRESHOLDS.

RELATIVELY TRANQUIL SEAS BUILD LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
WINDS INCREASE. SCA CONDS ARE LIKELY BY SAT...BUT IT IS STILL
UNCERTAIN WHETHER GALES WILL DEVELOP THAT EARLY DUE TO TIMING
UNCERTAINTY OF AN INITIAL LOW PASSING TO THE SE. GALES APPEAR MORE
LIKELY LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS STRONGER LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS AND PASSES TO THE SE...WITH CAA OVER STILL RELATIVELY
MILD WATERS AND A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT.

AFTER SOME LINGERING GALES ON THE ERN OCEAN WATERS SUNDAY
EVENING...SCA CONDS SHOULD OTHERWISE FOLLOW FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MON FOR MOST WATERS. THEN QUIET CONDS SHOULD RETURN TO ALL WATERS
BY MON NIGHT. INCREASING SW FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT COULD BRING
A RETURN OF SCA CONDS TO THE ERN OCEAN WATERS LATE TUE NIGHT-WED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL FROM FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN UNDER A
HALF INCH...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS GENERALLY ACROSS ERN LONG
ISLAND AND SE CT. NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC IMPACT EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/PW
NEAR TERM...MET/PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...GOODMAN/MET/PW
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/PW








000
FXUS61 KALY 310122
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
922 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE FAIR AND SEASONABLY COOL
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. COLDER AIR WILL
ARRIVE DURING THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG STORM FORMS WELL OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. THE COLDER AIR WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 920 PM EDT...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE.
CLEARING WILL CONTINUE OVER THE VALLEYS THIS EVENING AND SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS AS A SMALL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO MID 30S IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MAIN FEATURE TO MONITOR DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE A
STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL WAVE CURRENTLY DIVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES PER LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. MODELS ARE NOW IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT THIS WAVE WILL
DIVE SOUTH AND CLOSE-OFF OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS
BY FRIDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
VIRGINIA COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING BUT THIS LOW WILL TRACK WELL TO
THE EAST OF OUR AREA LATER SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
MINIMAL IMPACTS FOR MOST AREAS. EXCEPTION COULD BE OVER THE FAR
EAST WHERE SOME STEADIER PRECIPITATION MIGHT DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL
OR WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR SATURDAY EVENING
DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE STORM. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING THAT THE SHIELD OF STEADY
PRECIPITATION WILL GET AS FAR WEST AS CENTRAL MASS... WHILE THE
NAM IS A BIT FARTHER EAST.

OTHERWISE THE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT PERIOD WILL BE
COOL WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.
HAVE GONE WITH POP VALUES MAINLY NEAR 30 PERCENT FROM FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT TO COVER FOR THIS. EXPECT LOWEST POPS TO BE
IN THE HUDSON VALLEY. ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WILL
BE WEST OF THE CATSKILLS AS THE FLOW WILL BE NNW INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING
A DRY UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY BUT WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE MODERATING WEATHER AS THE
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD
THE NORTH ATLANTIC WITH RIDGING BUILDING NORTHEAST FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH A WARMING TREND. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL PASS EAST
ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS... FOLLOWED
BY COOLER BUT NOT REALLY VERY COLD WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK. GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AND
CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE LATER TIME PERIODS OF THE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 00Z SATURDAY. SKIES WILL BE SCT-BKN
FROM 4-6 KFT THIS EVENING...THEN SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT WITH MAINLY SCT CLOUD CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SOME HIGH
CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY
ALONG WITH SCT STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS BUT AGAIN CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE DAY. SKIES WILL TURN OVC DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH CIGS MAINLY ARND 10 KFT.

WINDS WILL BE WNW AT 5 TO 10 THIS EVENING... BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT THEN NE-SE AT 4-5 KTS ON FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...ESP AT
NIGHT WHEN VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT. WINDS WILL NE NORTHWEST
AT 5 TO 15 MPH TODAY...AND LIGHT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRODUCES SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

ANY PRECIP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT...AND BASIN
AVERAGE AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW RIVER LEVELS TO HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...








000
FXUS61 KOKX 310022
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
822 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY AND TRACKS NORTHEAST. A SECONDARY
LOW FORMING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON SATURDAY WILL INTENSIFY
AND HEAD NORTHEAST TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY SUNDAY EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS STORM FROM MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL PASS TO THE NORTH ON TUESDAY...
FOLLOWED BY A SERIES OF FAST MOVING COLD FRONTS WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING MOST OF THE INLAND STRATO CU WAS
DISSIPATING. DRIER AIR WAS FLOWING IN ON A NORTHWEST WIND.
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS FOR CURRENT TRENDS.

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE AND PVA DIVES ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTHWARD. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS THE GULF STATES...MOVING EAST TONIGHT.

AT THE SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND MOVES QUICKLY
NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH. DIURNAL SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU
CLOUDS SHOULD GIVE WAY TO CLEARING OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH DO EXPECT
FEW TO SCATTERED LOWER CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL PER MOS
BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SHORTWAVE AND WEAK PVA TRACKS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...WITH SFC
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE CAROLINAS. MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE
CARVES OUT LOW PRESSURE FRIDAY NIGHT AS IT ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE
MAIN TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES.

WEAK INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS NW FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LOW LATER
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH SOME SUPPORT ALOFT...AND A MOISTENING
COLUMN DUE TO INCREASING EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW BELOW H8 HPA...EXPECT
LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BETTER CHANCE ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES.

TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL DUE TO
INCREASING CLOUDS AND NE FLOW. NEAR NORMAL READINGS ANTICIPATED
FRIDAY NIGHT. FOLLOWED A MOS BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GUIDANCE REMAINS MOSTLY CONSISTENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF A STORM
DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST THIS WEEKEND. FIRST...LOW PRESSURE MOVING
ALONG AN OFFSHORE FRONT WILL BRING MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN TO THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER ERN LONG ISLAND/SE CT WITH CAT POP...WITH
LIKELY POP AS FAR BACK AS NYC METRO. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING AND RAINFALL AMTS DURING THE DAY SAT BETWEEN THE LATEST
RUNS OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE...WITH THE LATEST GFS SOONER AND A
LITTLE FARTHER EAST...AND THE ECMWF WETTER AND LATER OUT
EAST...HAVE SMOOTHED OUT THESE DIFFERENCES FOR NOW WITH A GENERAL
ALL DAY EVENT.

FOCUS OF RAIN SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE EAST SAT NIGHT...WITH
DECREASING POP AS THIS FIRST LOW LIFTS TO THE NE. PRECIP COULD
BRIEFLY END AS SOME SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS WELL NORTH/WEST. AS A STRONGER LOW FORMS NEAR CAPE
HATTERAS AND THEN TRACKS OUTSIDE THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK BY DAYBREAK
SUNDAY...ITS RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE AS IT FAILS TO PHASE
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH TO ITS WEST. ITS MORE IMPORTANT IMPACTS WILL
BE AND COOLER CONDS ON SUNDAY...WITH A BRISK N FLOW AS AS THE LOW
INTENSIFIES AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AROUND BETWEEN IT
AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST. THERE SHOULD ALSO BE
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY STRATOCU AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS.
HIGHS WILL ONLY BARELY REACH 50 IN NYC METRO AND LONG ISLAND...AND
REMAIN IN THE 40S INLAND.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT SUNDAY NIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...BUT REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT THE BOUNDARY LAYER FROM
COMPLETELY DECOUPLING IN MOST PLACES. ASA RESULT STUCK CLOSE TO
GUIDANCE LOWS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND DID NOT UNDERCUT...WITH LOWS
25-30 WELL INLAND...LOWER 30S MOST ELSEWHERE...AND MID 30S FOR NYC.

AFTER ONE MORE COOL DAY ON MON WITH HIGHS AGAIN IN THE UPPER 40S AND
LOWER 50S...TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE MID
WEEK PERIOD AS A WARM FRONT PASSES TO THE NORTH AND HIGH PRESSURE
PASSES TO THE EAST. SHOULD THEN SEE A SERIES OF WEAK...FAST MOVING
COLD FRONTS PASSING THROUGH IN FAST QUASI-ZONAL FLOW...WITH CHANCE
POP FOR RAIN SHOWERS NORTH/WEST OF NYC ON WED...AND THROUGHOUT THE
AREA WED NIGHT INTO THU.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY...WHILE LOW PRESSURE DROPS SE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
A SECONDARY COASTAL LOW THEN DEEPENS ON FRIDAY AND TRACKS NE
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.

EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS BY LATE
FRI AFTERNOON. HIGHER CONFIDENCE IS AFTER 00Z SAT WITH THE ONSET
OF -RA.

WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE N OVERNIGHT AND NE ON FRIDAY.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRI NGT-SAT NGT...MVFR OR LOWER. PCPN MAINLY RAIN...BUT SNOW MAY
MIX IN ACROSS THE INTERIOR SUN NIGHT. NE-N WINDS 15-20G25-35KT.
.SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. AFT STRATO CU WITH ISOLATED
FLURRIES/SPRINKLES. NW WINDS 20-25G30-35KT.
.MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHWEST WIND 10 TO 15 KT HAS ALLOWED FOR SEAS ON THE OCEAN TO
SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 3 FT...SO HAVE ADJUSTED WAVE HEIGHTS DOWNWARD UP TO
A FOOT THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT AS WIND WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE
NORTH AND DIMINISH A FEW KNOTS.

AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS THEN MOVES NORTHEASTWARD...NW WINDS WILL
TURN TOWARD THE N TONIGHT. THE WINDS THEN TURN TO THE NE AND
INCREASE LATER IN THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTH. THESE E/NE WINDS INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT...LIKELY TO SCA
THRESHOLDS.

RELATIVELY TRANQUIL SEAS BUILD LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
WINDS INCREASE. SCA CONDS ARE LIKELY BY SAT...BUT IT IS STILL
UNCERTAIN WHETHER GALES WILL DEVELOP THAT EARLY DUE TO TIMING
UNCERTAINTY OF AN INITIAL LOW PASSING TO THE SE. GALES APPEAR MORE
LIKELY LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS STRONGER LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS AND PASSES TO THE SE...WITH CAA OVER STILL RELATIVELY
MILD WATERS AND A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT.

AFTER SOME LINGERING GALES ON THE ERN OCEAN WATERS SUNDAY
EVENING...SCA CONDS SHOULD OTHERWISE FOLLOW FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MON FOR MOST WATERS. THEN QUIET CONDS SHOULD RETURN TO ALL WATERS
BY MON NIGHT. INCREASING SW FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT COULD BRING
A RETURN OF SCA CONDS TO THE ERN OCEAN WATERS LATE TUE NIGHT-WED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL FROM FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN UNDER A
HALF INCH...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS GENERALLY ACROSS ERN LONG
ISLAND AND SE CT. NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC IMPACT EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/PW
NEAR TERM...MET/PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...GOODMAN/MET/PW
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/PW








000
FXUS61 KALY 302313
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
713 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE FAIR AND SEASONABLY COOL
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. COLDER AIR WILL
ARRIVE DURING THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG STORM FORMS WELL OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. THE COLDER AIR WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 600 PM EDT...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE
AREA OF CLOUDINESS COVERING THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES IN THE VALLEYS. A FEW SCATTERED SPRINKLES ARE PERSISTING
OVER THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS BUT THOSE WILL BE DIMINISHING THIS
EVENING. CLEARING WILL CONTINUE OVER THE VALLEYS THIS EVENING
WITH AT LEAST SOME CLEARING ELSEWHERE AS A SMALL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S
TO MID 30S IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MAIN FEATURE TO MONITOR DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE A
STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL WAVE CURRENTLY DIVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES PER LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. MODELS ARE NOW IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT THIS WAVE WILL
DIVE SOUTH AND CLOSE-OFF OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS
BY FRIDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
VIRGINIA COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING BUT THIS LOW WILL TRACK WELL TO
THE EAST OF OUR AREA LATER SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
MINIMAL IMPACTS FOR MOST AREAS. EXCEPTION COULD BE OVER THE FAR
EAST WHERE SOME STEADIER PRECIPITATION MIGHT DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL
OR WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR SATURDAY EVENING
DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE STORM. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING THAT THE SHIELD OF STEADY
PRECIPITATION WILL GET AS FAR WEST AS CENTRAL MASS... WHILE THE
NAM IS A BIT FARTHER EAST.

OTHERWISE THE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT PERIOD WILL BE
COOL WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.
HAVE GONE WITH POP VALUES MAINLY NEAR 30 PERCENT FROM FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT TO COVER FOR THIS. EXPECT LOWEST POPS TO BE
IN THE HUDSON VALLEY. ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WILL
BE WEST OF THE CATSKILLS AS THE FLOW WILL BE NNW INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING
A DRY UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY BUT WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE MODERATING WEATHER AS THE
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD
THE NORTH ATLANTIC WITH RIDGING BUILDING NORTHEAST FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH A WARMING TREND. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL PASS EAST
ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS... FOLLOWED
BY COOLER BUT NOT REALLY VERY COLD WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK. GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AND
CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE LATER TIME PERIODS OF THE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 00Z SATURDAY. SKIES WILL BE SCT-BKN
FROM 4-6 KFT THIS EVENING...THEN SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT WITH MAINLY SCT CLOUD CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SOME HIGH
CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY
ALONG WITH SCT STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS BUT AGAIN CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE DAY. SKIES WILL TURN OVC DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH CIGS MAINLY ARND 10 KFT.

WINDS WILL BE WNW AT 5 TO 10 THIS EVENING... BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT THEN NE-SE AT 4-5 KTS ON FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...ESP AT
NIGHT WHEN VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT. WINDS WILL NE NORTHWEST
AT 5 TO 15 MPH TODAY...AND LIGHT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRODUCES SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

ANY PRECIP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT...AND BASIN
AVERAGE AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW RIVER LEVELS TO HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...








000
FXUS61 KBOX 302257
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
657 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. A DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM WILL MOVE UP
THE COAST SATURDAY AND PASS OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN USA FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ONE OR TWO COLD FRONT MAY CROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL WITH A LIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
OVER THE REGION...HIGHER PRESSURES TO OUR WEST. PATCHY CLOUDS OVER
THE REGION BUT THESE ARE DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE. NO CHANGES IN
LOGIC FROM THE EARLIER FORECAST. SHOULD BE A FAIR WEATHER NIGHT.
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST GRIDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE TONIGHTS WEATHER WITH
CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED. LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND MAY BE ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
COMPLETELY RADIATING.  ANYWHERE THE WINDS DO CALM THE TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP A FEW DEGREES FAIRLY QUICKLY.  OVERALL...EXPECT LOWS IN
THE 30S AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...ANOTHER QUIET DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE LIFTS TO THE NORTH.
WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE EAST AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TOWARDS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FROM THE CAROLINA COAST...EXPECT IT TO FEEL A
BIT COOLER THAN TODAY.  OTHERWISE...INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE
APPROACHING COASTAL LOW.

FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS WITH THE UPCOMING STORM MOST OF THIS WILL AFFECT THE
WEEKENDS WEATHER SO WILL MOSTLY DISCUSS IT IN THE LONG TERM SECTION.
SHOULD MOSTLY SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.  THIS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...RAIN
AND/OR SHOWERS WILL LIKELY MOVE ONTO THE SOUTH COAST AND INTO
SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS TOWARDS DAYBREAK SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...

DEEP AMPLITUDE TROUGHS ON BOTH COASTS SATURDAY WITH A RIDGE IN
BETWEEN. SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN TROUGH GENERATES A
CUTOFF UPPER LOW WITH TWO JET STREAMS...A NORTHERN STREAM ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER AND A SOUTHERN STREAM MOVING WITH THE SHORT WAVE.
THE PATTERN SHIFTS EAST DURING THE WEEK WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING OVER
NEW ENGLAND. THE PATTERN THEN TRANSFORMS TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW.
REMAINS OF THE PACIFIC COAST TROUGH MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND MIDWEEK.

COLDER THAN NORMAL HEIGHTS WITH THE WEEKEND TROUGH. THESE BUILD TO
NORMAL OR A LITTLE MILDER THAN NORMAL BY MIDWEEK. THIS POINTS TO A
COLDER THAN NORMAL WEEKEND TRENDING TO NORMAL TEMPS BY MIDWEEK.

THE GFS...WHILE SERVICEABLE...IS A BIT OF AN OUTLIER. FOR THE GRIDS
WE WILL USE A BLEND OF MODEL DATA INCLUDING HPC AND /WHERE POSSIBLE/
THE 12Z ECMWF.

THE DAILIES...

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...

COASTAL STORM CONTINUES TO BE INDICATED FOR SATURDAY AND EARLY
SUNDAY. SUPPORT COMES FROM TWO SETS OF FORCING
MECHANISMS...SUGGESTING A TWO-PART EVENT. BUT FINE-TUNING THE TIMING
OF THESE PARTS IS DIFFICULT THIS FAR OUT. INITIAL FORCING COMES FROM
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF NORTHERN STREAM JET SATURDAY MORNING.
SECOND FORCING COMES FROM LEFT EXIT REGION OF JET SUPPORTING
SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE EASTERN TROUGH LATE
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. EVEN SO...MOST OF THE FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
WITH EACH SEGMENT IS FOCUSSED ON THE MARITIMES AND MAINE. THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THIS FORCING SHOULD EXTEND INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WITH THE FIRST AND POSSIBLY THE SECOND OF THE SEGMENTS.  WE EXPECT
RAIN SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH HIGHEST POPS OVER CAPE COD AND
THE ISLANDS...LESSER VALUES NORTH AND WEST.

STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE AND A 50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WINDY CONDITIONS. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE
OVER THE EASTERN/SOUTHEAST WATERS. STRONGEST LAND WINDS WILL BE OVER
THE OUTER CAPE AND ISLANDS...DIMINISHING FARTHER WEST. HAVE FEATURED
45 KNOTS FOR THE STRONGEST WINDS AND 20-25 KNOTS IN THE INTERIOR.

THE COASTAL STORM WILL PASS US IN PIECES SATURDAY AND LATER SATURDAY
NIGHT...AS NOTED ABOVE. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO DIMINISH WEST TO
EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND END ON THE MASS EAST COAST AROUND OR SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH MOST OF THE STORM SHOULD REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
RAIN.  AS THE WINDS SHIFT FROM NORTHEAST TO NORTHWEST SATURDAY
NIGHT...COLDER AIR WILL BE DRAWN IN WHICH COULD CHANGE THE LAST
SHOWERS OVER TO SNOW. ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE NO MORE THAN A
TRACE. SOME HIGHLANDS SUCH AS IN THE MONADNOCK COULD PICK UP A LIGHT
ACCUMULATION AT STORM/S END.

DRIER AIR SUNDAY WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES. COLD ADVECTION WILL
PROMOTE MIXING THROUGH AT LEAST 850 MB. WINDS IN THIS LAYER WILL BE
35 TO 40 KNOTS...SO EXPECT NORTHWEST GUSTS TO AT LEAST THE LOWER END
OF THIS RANGE. WINDS DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE STORM MOVES
FARTHER AWAY.

MONDAY-TUESDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. MONDAY
SHOULD BE SUNNY AS THE HIGH  MOVES OVERHEAD. MXING WILL AGAIN BRING
INCREASED WIND GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS IN THE MIXED LAYER
ARE EXPECTED AROUND 30 KNOTS WITH POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE STRONGER
SPEEDS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH WITH SUNSET.

THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE TUESDAY. THIS WILL MAKE ROOM FOR A WARM
FRONT TO SWING PAST. SUFFICIENT LIFT AND MOISTURE TO SUPPORT MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS...BUT THE BEST WARM FRONTAL LIFT WILL REMAIN TO OUR
NORTH AND WEST SO EXPECT AT LEAST SOME SUN THROUGH THE DAY.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY... LOW CONFIDENCE ON MIDWEEK WEATHER.  AT LEAST
ONE TROUGH IN THE ZONAL FLOW WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THIS TIME. GFS AND ECMWF ARE HINTING AT ONE ON WEDNESDAY...BUT
SHOWING A MORE SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH PASSING ON THURSDAY.  THE FORECAST
WILL HAVE CLOUDS AND LOW-END CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE THROUGH
THE NIGHT TO MVFR/IFR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.  RAIN/SHOWERS EXPECTED
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND INTO SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AS WE NEAR
DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...IFR CIGS AND MVFR OR IFR VSBYS IN PERIODS OF RAIN
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. VFR AND DRIER WEATHER MOVE IN FROM WEST
TO EAST EARLY SUNDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS SATURDAY GUSTING 30-40 KNOTS
ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS AND 25-30 KNOTS IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. WINDS
SHIFT TO NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY WITH GUSTS 40-
45 KNOTS CAPE AND ISLANDS AND 30-35 KNOTS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.

MONDAY...VFR. DAYTIME WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KNOTS
INLAND AND 35 KNOTS CAPE AND ISLANDS...DIMINISHING TOWARD EVENING.

TUESDAY...VFR WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE.  HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THROUGH FRIDAY WITH WINDS
AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SCA CRITERIA.  WINDS SHIFT FROM THE
NORTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST THEN EAST FRIDAY.  THESE EASTERLY WINDS
AND SEAS INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE WATERS
FROM THE CAROLINAS.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL
OF THE WATERS FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF FRIDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY...STRONG POTENTIAL FOR HIGH-END GALES ON THE OUTER
WATERS WITH GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS. LOW POTENTIAL OF STORM FORCE WINDS
ON THE OUTER WATERS. RAIN WITH INCREASING NORTHEAST WINDS. GALE
FORCE GUSTS EXPECTED ON MOST WATERS.WAVEWATCH MODEL FORECASTS OF
SEA HEIGHTS ARE LOWER THAN OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST. WE HAVE BUMPED
SEAS UP 2-3 FEET WITH 15 FOOT SEAS DEVELOPING EAST OF
MASSACHUSETTS. A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT CONTINUES TO ADDRESS
THIS CONCERN.

SUNDAY...RAIN MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. WINDS SHIFT NORTHWEST WITH GALE
FORCE GUSTS 40-45 KNOTS. EXPECT THESE WINDS TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE
FORCE SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH THE WIND SHIFT...THE ROUGH SEAS WILL
MIGRATE FARTHER OFFSHORE WITH DIMINISHING SEAS CLOSER TO SHORE.
GALE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

MONDAY... GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WITH SPEEDS APPROACHING GALE FORCE
AGAIN DURING THE DAY. WINDS DIMINISH TOWARD EVENING. SEAS WILL
LINGER AT 5-9 FEET ESPECIALLY ON THE OUTER WATERS.  SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS LIKELY...LOW-END CHANCE THAT GALES MAY BE NEEDED ON SOME
OF THE WATERS.

TUESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES ARE RATHER LOW SATURDAY EVENING AND AGAIN
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.  HOWEVER...STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND HIGH
SEAS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO RESULT IN MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND
BEACH EROSION ALONG THE EASTERN MA COAST...PARTICULARLY THE NORTH
SIDE OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET HARBOR DURING BOTH HIGH TIDE CYCLES.

THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY REVOLVES AROUND WHEN AND HOW STRONG THE
WINDS/SEAS WILL GET.  THE MODELS SEEM TO BE SHOWING TWO PULSES OF
WIND WITH TWO WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE.  THE FIRST ONE APPEARS TO BE
SATURDAY EVENING WITH THE SECOND ONE SUNDAY MORNING.  THE POTENTIAL
CONTINUES FOR WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 KNOTS AND SEAS BUILDING TO 20 FEET
ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS EAST OF MASSACHUSETTS.  THE TREND OF THE 12Z
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TO SHOW THE STRONGEST WINDS/HIGHEST SEAS WITH THE
SATURDAY EVENING PULSE.  WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE HOW THE MODELS
TREND...BUT STILL FEEL BOTH HIGH TIDE CYCLES ARE AT RISK WITH A 1 TO
2 FOOT STORM SURGE.

AREAS OF GREATEST CONCERN APPEAR TO BE THE NORTH SIDE OF CAPE
COD...SUCH AS SANDWICH...BARNSTABLE...DENNIS...BREWSTER AND POSSIBLY
EASTHAM. OTHER TYPICAL HOT SPOTS WILL BE SALISBURY AND PLUM
ISLAND...HULL...SCITUATE AND PERHAPS SANDWICH HARBOR AND NANTUCKET
HARBOR. AGAIN...THE MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AS
WELL AS BEACH EROSION.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT TO 8 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ231>234-250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ230-
     236-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM FRIDAY TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ235-237-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/RLG
NEAR TERM...WTB/RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/RLG
MARINE...WTB/RLG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KOKX 302237
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
637 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY AND TRACKS NORTHEAST. A SECONDARY
LOW FORMING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON SATURDAY WILL INTENSIFY
AND HEAD NORTHEAST TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY SUNDAY EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS STORM FROM MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL PASS TO THE NORTH ON TUESDAY...
FOLLOWED BY A SERIES OF FAST MOVING COLD FRONTS WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING MOST OF THE INLAND STRATO CU WAS
DISSIPATING. DRIER AIR WAS FLOWING IN ON A NORTHWEST WIND.
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS FOR CURRENT TRENDS.

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE AND PVA DIVES ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTHWARD. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS THE GULF STATES...MOVING EAST TONIGHT.

AT THE SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND MOVES QUICKLY
NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH. DIURNAL SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU
CLOUDS SHOULD GIVE WAY TO CLEARING OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH DO EXPECT
FEW TO SCATTERED LOWER CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL PER MOS
BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SHORTWAVE AND WEAK PVA TRACKS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...WITH SFC
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE CAROLINAS. MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE
CARVES OUT LOW PRESSURE FRIDAY NIGHT AS IT ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE
MAIN TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES.

WEAK INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS NW FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LOW LATER
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH SOME SUPPORT ALOFT...AND A MOISTENING
COLUMN DUE TO INCREASING EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW BELOW H8 HPA...EXPECT
LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BETTER CHANCE ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES.

TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL DUE TO
INCREASING CLOUDS AND NE FLOW. NEAR NORMAL READINGS ANTICIPATED
FRIDAY NIGHT. FOLLOWED A MOS BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GUIDANCE REMAINS MOSTLY CONSISTENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF A STORM
DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST THIS WEEKEND. FIRST...LOW PRESSURE MOVING
ALONG AN OFFSHORE FRONT WILL BRING MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN TO THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER ERN LONG ISLAND/SE CT WITH CAT POP...WITH
LIKELY POP AS FAR BACK AS NYC METRO. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING AND RAINFALL AMTS DURING THE DAY SAT BETWEEN THE LATEST
RUNS OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE...WITH THE LATEST GFS SOONER AND A
LITTLE FARTHER EAST...AND THE ECMWF WETTER AND LATER OUT
EAST...HAVE SMOOTHED OUT THESE DIFFERENCES FOR NOW WITH A GENERAL
ALL DAY EVENT.

FOCUS OF RAIN SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE EAST SAT NIGHT...WITH
DECREASING POP AS THIS FIRST LOW LIFTS TO THE NE. PRECIP COULD
BRIEFLY END AS SOME SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS WELL NORTH/WEST. AS A STRONGER LOW FORMS NEAR CAPE
HATTERAS AND THEN TRACKS OUTSIDE THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK BY DAYBREAK
SUNDAY...ITS RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE AS IT FAILS TO PHASE
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH TO ITS WEST. ITS MORE IMPORTANT IMPACTS WILL
BE AND COOLER CONDS ON SUNDAY...WITH A BRISK N FLOW AS AS THE LOW
INTENSIFIES AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AROUND BETWEEN IT
AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST. THERE SHOULD ALSO BE
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY STRATOCU AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS.
HIGHS WILL ONLY BARELY REACH 50 IN NYC METRO AND LONG ISLAND...AND
REMAIN IN THE 40S INLAND.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT SUNDAY NIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...BUT REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT THE BOUNDARY LAYER FROM
COMPLETELY DECOUPLING IN MOST PLACES. ASA RESULT STUCK CLOSE TO
GUIDANCE LOWS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND DID NOT UNDERCUT...WITH LOWS
25-30 WELL INLAND...LOWER 30S MOST ELSEWHERE...AND MID 30S FOR NYC.

AFTER ONE MORE COOL DAY ON MON WITH HIGHS AGAIN IN THE UPPER 40S AND
LOWER 50S...TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE MID
WEEK PERIOD AS A WARM FRONT PASSES TO THE NORTH AND HIGH PRESSURE
PASSES TO THE EAST. SHOULD THEN SEE A SERIES OF WEAK...FAST MOVING
COLD FRONTS PASSING THROUGH IN FAST QUASI-ZONAL FLOW...WITH CHANCE
POP FOR RAIN SHOWERS NORTH/WEST OF NYC ON WED...AND THROUGHOUT THE
AREA WED NIGHT INTO THU.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HI PRES SLIDES NORTH AND EAST OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH LOW PRES BEGINS TO DEVELOP S OF THE REGION FRI.

MAINLY VFR THROUGH TAF PERIOD. BKN 4-5 KFT STRATO CU THIS
AFTERNOON...BECOMING SCT TONIGHT. INCREASING LIKELIHOOD FOR BKN
STRATO-CU 3.5-4 KFT TO DEVELOP FRI MORNING. CIGS GRADUALLY LOWER TO
MVFR LATE FRI/FRI EVE ACROSS METRO TERMINALS WITH -RA DEVELOPING.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GENERALLY RUN BETWEEN 310 AND 350 DEGREES
MAGNETIC INTO THIS EVENING. DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL OCCASIONALLY
INCREASE THIS RANGE OF WIND DIRECTION VARIABILITY BY 20 DEGREES ON
EITHER SIDE WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KT THROUGH AROUND 22Z FOR
METRO TERMINALS. WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE N OVERNIGHT AND NE ON
FRIDAY.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS GENERALLY RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC THROUGH
THIS EVENING...BUT WILL OCCASIONALLY VARY BETWEEN 290 AND 360
MAGNETIC WITH GUSTS TO 20KT THROUGH AROUND 22Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS GENERALLY RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC THROUGH
THIS EVENING...BUT WILL OCCASIONALLY VARY BETWEEN 290 AND 360
MAGNETIC WITH GUSTS TO 20KT THROUGH AROUND 22Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS GENERALLY RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC THROUGH
THIS EVENING...BUT WILL OCCASIONALLY VARY BETWEEN 290 AND 360
MAGNETIC WITH GUSTS TO 20KT THROUGH AROUND 22Z.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS GENERALLY RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRI AFT...CIGS LOWER THRU THE AFT WITH MVFR POSSIBLE LATE.
.FRI NGT-SAT NGT...MVFR OR LOWER. PCPN MAINLY RAIN...BUT SNOW MAY
MIX IN ACROSS THE INTERIOR SUN NIGHT. NE-N WINDS 15-20G25-35KT.
.SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. AFT STRATO-CU WITH ISOLATED
FLURRIES/SPRINKLES. NW WINDS 20-25G30-35KT.
.MONDAY...VFR. WEST WINDS 5-10 KT.
.TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHWEST WIND 10 TO 15 KT HAS ALLOWED FOR SEAS ON THE OCEAN TO
SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 3 FT...SO HAVE ADJUSTED WAVE HEIGHTS DOWNWARD UP TO
A FOOT THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT AS WIND WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE
NORTH AND DIMINISH A FEW KNOTS.

AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS THEN MOVES NORTHEASTWARD...NW WINDS WILL
TURN TOWARD THE N TONIGHT. THE WINDS THEN TURN TO THE NE AND
INCREASE LATER IN THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTH. THESE E/NE WINDS INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT...LIKELY TO SCA
THRESHOLDS.

RELATIVELY TRANQUIL SEAS BUILD LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
WINDS INCREASE. SCA CONDS ARE LIKELY BY SAT...BUT IT IS STILL
UNCERTAIN WHETHER GALES WILL DEVELOP THAT EARLY DUE TO TIMING
UNCERTAINTY OF AN INITIAL LOW PASSING TO THE SE. GALES APPEAR MORE
LIKELY LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS STRONGER LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS AND PASSES TO THE SE...WITH CAA OVER STILL RELATIVELY
MILD WATERS AND A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT.

AFTER SOME LINGERING GALES ON THE ERN OCEAN WATERS SUNDAY
EVENING...SCA CONDS SHOULD OTHERWISE FOLLOW FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MON FOR MOST WATERS. THEN QUIET CONDS SHOULD RETURN TO ALL WATERS
BY MON NIGHT. INCREASING SW FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT COULD BRING
A RETURN OF SCA CONDS TO THE ERN OCEAN WATERS LATE TUE NIGHT-WED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL FROM FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN UNDER A
HALF INCH...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS GENERALLY ACROSS ERN LONG
ISLAND AND SE CT. NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC IMPACT EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/PW
NEAR TERM...MET/PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...GOODMAN/MET/PW
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/PW








000
FXUS61 KALY 302201
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
601 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE FAIR AND SEASONABLY COOL
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. COLDER AIR WILL
ARRIVE DURING THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG STORM FORMS WELL OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. THE COLDER AIR WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 600 PM EDT...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE
AREA OF CLOUDINESS COVERING THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES IN THE VALLEYS. A FEW SCATTERED SPRINKLES ARE PERSISTING
OVER THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS BUT THOSE WILL BE DIMINISHING THIS
EVENING. CLEARING WILL CONTINUE OVER THE VALLEYS THIS EVENING
WITH AT LEAST SOME CLEARING ELSEWHERE AS A SMALL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S
TO MID 30S IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MAIN FEATURE TO MONITOR DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE A
STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL WAVE CURRENTLY DIVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES PER LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. MODELS ARE NOW IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT THIS WAVE WILL
DIVE SOUTH AND CLOSE-OFF OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS
BY FRIDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
VIRGINIA COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING BUT THIS LOW WILL TRACK WELL TO
THE EAST OF OUR AREA LATER SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
MINIMAL IMPACTS FOR MOST AREAS. EXCEPTION COULD BE OVER THE FAR
EAST WHERE SOME STEADIER PRECIPITATION MIGHT DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL
OR WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR SATURDAY EVENING
DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE STORM. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING THAT THE SHIELD OF STEADY
PRECIPITATION WILL GET AS FAR WEST AS CENTRAL MASS... WHILE THE
NAM IS A BIT FARTHER EAST.

OTHERWISE THE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT PERIOD WILL BE
COOL WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.
HAVE GONE WITH POP VALUES MAINLY NEAR 30 PERCENT FROM FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT TO COVER FOR THIS. EXPECT LOWEST POPS TO BE
IN THE HUDSON VALLEY. ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WILL
BE WEST OF THE CATSKILLS AS THE FLOW WILL BE NNW INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING
A DRY UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY BUT WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE MODERATING WEATHER AS THE
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD
THE NORTH ATLANTIC WITH RIDGING BUILDING NORTHEAST FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH A WARMING TREND. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL PASS EAST
ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS... FOLLOWED
BY COOLER BUT NOT REALLY VERY COLD WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK. GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AND
CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE LATER TIME PERIODS OF THE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. SKIES
WILL BE BKN- 0VC WITH CIGS RANGING FROM 4-6 KFT THIS AFTERNOON...
THEN SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH MAINLY SCT CLOUD
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY ALONG WITH SCT STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS BUT AGAIN CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE DAY.

WINDS WILL BE WNW AT 5 TO 15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW GUSTS
TO 20 KTS... BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KTS TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY NO SIG WX. SUNDAY NIGHT: NO
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...ESP AT
NIGHT WHEN VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT. WINDS WILL NE NORTHWEST
AT 5 TO 15 MPH TODAY...AND LIGHT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRODUCES SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

ANY PRECIP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT...AND BASIN
AVERAGE AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW RIVER LEVELS TO HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...








000
FXUS61 KALY 302201
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
601 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE FAIR AND SEASONABLY COOL
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. COLDER AIR WILL
ARRIVE DURING THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG STORM FORMS WELL OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. THE COLDER AIR WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 600 PM EDT...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE
AREA OF CLOUDINESS COVERING THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES IN THE VALLEYS. A FEW SCATTERED SPRINKLES ARE PERSISTING
OVER THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS BUT THOSE WILL BE DIMINISHING THIS
EVENING. CLEARING WILL CONTINUE OVER THE VALLEYS THIS EVENING
WITH AT LEAST SOME CLEARING ELSEWHERE AS A SMALL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S
TO MID 30S IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MAIN FEATURE TO MONITOR DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE A
STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL WAVE CURRENTLY DIVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES PER LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. MODELS ARE NOW IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT THIS WAVE WILL
DIVE SOUTH AND CLOSE-OFF OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS
BY FRIDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
VIRGINIA COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING BUT THIS LOW WILL TRACK WELL TO
THE EAST OF OUR AREA LATER SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
MINIMAL IMPACTS FOR MOST AREAS. EXCEPTION COULD BE OVER THE FAR
EAST WHERE SOME STEADIER PRECIPITATION MIGHT DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL
OR WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR SATURDAY EVENING
DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE STORM. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING THAT THE SHIELD OF STEADY
PRECIPITATION WILL GET AS FAR WEST AS CENTRAL MASS... WHILE THE
NAM IS A BIT FARTHER EAST.

OTHERWISE THE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT PERIOD WILL BE
COOL WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.
HAVE GONE WITH POP VALUES MAINLY NEAR 30 PERCENT FROM FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT TO COVER FOR THIS. EXPECT LOWEST POPS TO BE
IN THE HUDSON VALLEY. ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WILL
BE WEST OF THE CATSKILLS AS THE FLOW WILL BE NNW INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING
A DRY UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY BUT WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE MODERATING WEATHER AS THE
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD
THE NORTH ATLANTIC WITH RIDGING BUILDING NORTHEAST FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH A WARMING TREND. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL PASS EAST
ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS... FOLLOWED
BY COOLER BUT NOT REALLY VERY COLD WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK. GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AND
CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE LATER TIME PERIODS OF THE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. SKIES
WILL BE BKN- 0VC WITH CIGS RANGING FROM 4-6 KFT THIS AFTERNOON...
THEN SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH MAINLY SCT CLOUD
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY ALONG WITH SCT STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS BUT AGAIN CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE DAY.

WINDS WILL BE WNW AT 5 TO 15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW GUSTS
TO 20 KTS... BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KTS TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY NO SIG WX. SUNDAY NIGHT: NO
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...ESP AT
NIGHT WHEN VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT. WINDS WILL NE NORTHWEST
AT 5 TO 15 MPH TODAY...AND LIGHT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRODUCES SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

ANY PRECIP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT...AND BASIN
AVERAGE AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW RIVER LEVELS TO HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...








000
FXUS61 KBOX 302046
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
446 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. A DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM WILL MOVE UP
THE COAST SATURDAY AND PASS OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN USA FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ONE OR TWO COLD FRONT MAY CROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE TONIGHTS WEATHER WITH
CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED. LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND MAY BE ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
COMPLETELY RADIATING.  ANYWHERE THE WINDS DO CALM THE TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP A FEW DEGREES FAIRLY QUICKLY.  OVERALL...EXPECT LOWS IN
THE 30S AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...ANOTHER QUIET DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE LIFTS TO THE NORTH.
WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE EAST AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TOWARDS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FROM THE CAROLINA COAST...EXPECT IT TO FEEL A
BIT COOLER THAN TODAY.  OTHERWISE...INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE
APPROACHING COASTAL LOW.

FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS WITH THE UPCOMING STORM MOST OF THIS WILL AFFECT THE
WEEKENDS WEATHER SO WILL MOSTLY DISCUSS IT IN THE LONG TERM SECTION.
SHOULD MOSTLY SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.  THIS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...RAIN
AND/OR SHOWERS WILL LIKELY MOVE ONTO THE SOUTH COAST AND INTO
SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS TOWARDS DAYBREAK SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

BIG PICTURE...

DEEP AMPLITUDE TROUGHS ON BOTH COASTS SATURDAY WITH A RIDGE IN
BETWEEN. SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN TROUGH GENERATES A
CUTOFF UPPER LOW WITH TWO JET STREAMS...A NORTHERN STREAM ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER AND A SOUTHERN STREAM MOVING WITH THE SHORT WAVE.
THE PATTERN SHIFTS EAST DURING THE WEEK WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING OVER
NEW ENGLAND. THE PATTERN THEN TRANSFORMS TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW.
REMAINS OF THE PACIFIC COAST TROUGH MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND MIDWEEK.

COLDER THAN NORMAL HEIGHTS WITH THE WEEKEND TROUGH. THESE BUILD TO
NORMAL OR A LITTLE MILDER THAN NORMAL BY MIDWEEK. THIS POINTS TO A
COLDER THAN NORMAL WEEKEND TRENDING TO NORMAL TEMPS BY MIDWEEK.

THE GFS...WHILE SERVICEABLE...IS A BIT OF AN OUTLIER. FOR THE GRIDS
WE WILL USE A BLEND OF MODEL DATA INCLUDING HPC AND /WHERE POSSIBLE/
THE 12Z ECMWF.

THE DAILIES...

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...

COASTAL STORM CONTINUES TO BE INDICATED FOR SATURDAY AND EARLY
SUNDAY. SUPPORT COMES FROM TWO SETS OF FORCING
MECHANISMS...SUGGESTING A TWO-PART EVENT. BUT FINE-TUNING THE TIMING
OF THESE PARTS IS DIFFICULT THIS FAR OUT. INITIAL FORCING COMES FROM
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF NORTHERN STREAM JET SATURDAY MORNING.
SECOND FORCING COMES FROM LEFT EXIT REGION OF JET SUPPORTING
SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE EASTERN TROUGH LATE
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. EVEN SO...MOST OF THE FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
WITH EACH SEGMENT IS FOCUSSED ON THE MARITIMES AND MAINE. THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THIS FORCING SHOULD EXTEND INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WITH THE FIRST AND POSSIBLY THE SECOND OF THE SEGMENTS.  WE EXPECT
RAIN SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH HIGHEST POPS OVER CAPE COD AND
THE ISLANDS...LESSER VALUES NORTH AND WEST.

STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE AND A 50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WINDY CONDITIONS. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE
OVER THE EASTERN/SOUTHEAST WATERS. STRONGEST LAND WINDS WILL BE OVER
THE OUTER CAPE AND ISLANDS...DIMINISHING FARTHER WEST. HAVE FEATURED
45 KNOTS FOR THE STRONGEST WINDS AND 20-25 KNOTS IN THE INTERIOR.

THE COASTAL STORM WILL PASS US IN PIECES SATURDAY AND LATER SATURDAY
NIGHT...AS NOTED ABOVE. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO DIMINISH WEST TO
EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND END ON THE MASS EAST COAST AROUND OR SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH MOST OF THE STORM SHOULD REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
RAIN.  AS THE WINDS SHIFT FROM NORTHEAST TO NORTHWEST SATURDAY
NIGHT...COLDER AIR WILL BE DRAWN IN WHICH COULD CHANGE THE LAST
SHOWERS OVER TO SNOW. ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE NO MORE THAN A
TRACE. SOME HIGHLANDS SUCH AS IN THE MONADNOCK COULD PICK UP A LIGHT
ACCUMULATION AT STORM/S END.

DRIER AIR SUNDAY WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES. COLD ADVECTION WILL
PROMOTE MIXING THROUGH AT LEAST 850 MB. WINDS IN THIS LAYER WILL BE
35 TO 40 KNOTS...SO EXPECT NORTHWEST GUSTS TO AT LEAST THE LOWER END
OF THIS RANGE. WINDS DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE STORM MOVES
FARTHER AWAY.

MONDAY-TUESDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. MONDAY
SHOULD BE SUNNY AS THE HIGH  MOVES OVERHEAD. MXING WILL AGAIN BRING
INCREASED WIND GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS IN THE MIXED LAYER
ARE EXPECTED AROUND 30 KNOTS WITH POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE STRONGER
SPEEDS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH WITH SUNSET.

THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE TUESDAY. THIS WILL MAKE ROOM FOR A WARM
FRONT TO SWING PAST. SUFFICIENT LIFT AND MOISTURE TO SUPPORT MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS...BUT THE BEST WARM FRONTAL LIFT WILL REMAIN TO OUR
NORTH AND WEST SO EXPECT AT LEAST SOME SUN THROUGH THE DAY.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY... LOW CONFIDENCE ON MIDWEEK WEATHER.  AT LEAST
ONE TROUGH IN THE ZONAL FLOW WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THIS TIME. GFS AND ECMWF ARE HINTING AT ONE ON WEDNESDAY...BUT
SHOWING A MORE SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH PASSING ON THURSDAY.  THE FORECAST
WILL HAVE CLOUDS AND LOW-END CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

18Z TODAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE THROUGH
THE NIGHT TO MVFR/IFR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.  RAIN/SHOWERS EXPECTED
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND INTO SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AS WE NEAR
DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...IFR CIGS AND MVFR OR IFR VSBYS IN PERIODS OF RAIN
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. VFR AND DRIER WEATHER MOVE IN FROM WEST
TO EAST EARLY SUNDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS SATURDAY GUSTING 30-40 KNOTS
ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS AND 25-30 KNOTS IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. WINDS
SHIFT TO NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY WITH GUSTS 40-
45 KNOTS CAPE AND ISLANDS AND 30-35 KNOTS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.

MONDAY...VFR. DAYTIME WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KNOTS
INLAND AND 35 KNOTS CAPE AND ISLANDS...DIMINISHING TOWARD EVENING.

TUESDAY...VFR WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE.  HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THROUGH FRIDAY WITH WINDS
AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SCA CRITERIA.  WINDS SHIFT FROM THE
NORTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST THEN EAST FRIDAY.  THESE EASTERLY WINDS
AND SEAS INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE WATERS
FROM THE CAROLINAS.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL
OF THE WATERS FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF FRIDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY...STRONG POTENTIAL FOR HIGH-END GALES ON THE OUTER
WATERS WITH GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS. LOW POTENTIAL OF STORM FORCE WINDS
ON THE OUTER WATERS. RAIN WITH INCREASING NORTHEAST WINDS. GALE
FORCE GUSTS EXPECTED ON MOST WATERS.WAVEWATCH MODEL FORECASTS OF
SEA HEIGHTS ARE LOWER THAN OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST. WE HAVE BUMPED
SEAS UP 2-3 FEET WITH 15 FOOT SEAS DEVELOPING EAST OF
MASSACHUSETTS. A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT CONTINUES TO ADDRESS
THIS CONCERN.

SUNDAY...RAIN MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. WINDS SHIFT NORTHWEST WITH GALE
FORCE GUSTS 40-45 KNOTS. EXPECT THESE WINDS TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE
FORCE SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH THE WIND SHIFT...THE ROUGH SEAS WILL
MIGRATE FARTHER OFFSHORE WITH DIMINISHING SEAS CLOSER TO SHORE.
GALE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

MONDAY... GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WITH SPEEDS APPROACHING GALE FORCE
AGAIN DURING THE DAY. WINDS DIMINISH TOWARD EVENING. SEAS WILL
LINGER AT 5-9 FEET ESPECIALLY ON THE OUTER WATERS.  SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS LIKELY...LOW-END CHANCE THAT GALES MAY BE NEEDED ON SOME
OF THE WATERS.

TUESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES ARE RATHER LOW SATURDAY EVENING AND AGAIN
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.  HOWEVER...STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND HIGH
SEAS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO RESULT IN MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND
BEACH EROSION ALONG THE EASTERN MA COAST...PARTICULARLY THE NORTH
SIDE OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET HARBOR DURING BOTH HIGH TIDE CYCLES.

THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY REVOLVES AROUND WHEN AND HOW STRONG THE
WINDS/SEAS WILL GET.  THE MODELS SEEM TO BE SHOWING TWO PULSES OF
WIND WITH TWO WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE.  THE FIRST ONE APPEARS TO BE
SATURDAY EVENING WITH THE SECOND ONE SUNDAY MORNING.  THE POTENTIAL
CONTINUES FOR WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 KNOTS AND SEAS BUILDING TO 20 FEET
ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS EAST OF MASSACHUSETTS.  THE TREND OF THE 12Z
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TO SHOW THE STRONGEST WINDS/HIGHEST SEAS WITH THE
SATURDAY EVENING PULSE.  WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE HOW THE MODELS
TREND...BUT STILL FEEL BOTH HIGH TIDE CYCLES ARE AT RISK WITH A 1 TO
2 FOOT STORM SURGE.

AREAS OF GREATEST CONCERN APPEAR TO BE THE NORTH SIDE OF CAPE
COD...SUCH AS SANDWICH...BARNSTABLE...DENNIS...BREWSTER AND POSSIBLY
EASTHAM. OTHER TYPICAL HOT SPOTS WILL BE SALISBURY AND PLUM
ISLAND...HULL...SCITUATE AND PERHAPS SANDWICH HARBOR AND NANTUCKET
HARBOR. AGAIN...THE MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AS
WELL AS BEACH EROSION.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT TO 8 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ231>234-250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ230-
     236-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM FRIDAY TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ235-237-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/RLG
NEAR TERM...RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/RLG
MARINE...WTB/RLG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KOKX 302013
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
413 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY AND TRACKS NORTHEAST. A SECONDARY
LOW FORMING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON SATURDAY WILL INTENSIFY
AND HEAD NORTHEAST TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY SUNDAY EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS STORM FROM MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL PASS TO THE NORTH ON TUESDAY...
FOLLOWED BY A SERIES OF FAST MOVING COLD FRONTS WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE AND PVA DIVES ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTHWARD. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS THE GULF STATES...MOVING EAST TONIGHT.

AT THE SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND MOVES QUICKLY
NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH. DIURNAL SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU
CLOUDS SHOULD GIVE WAY TO CLEARING OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH DO EXPECT
FEW TO SCATTERED LOWER CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL PER MOS
BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SHORTWAVE AND WEAK PVA TRACKS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...WITH SFC
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE CAROLINAS. MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE
CARVES OUT LOW PRESSURE FRIDAY NIGHT AS IT ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE
MAIN TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES.

WEAK INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS NW FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LOW LATER
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH SOME SUPPORT ALOFT...AND A MOISTENING
COLUMN DUE TO INCREASING EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW BELOW H8 HPA...EXPECT
LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BETTER CHANCE ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES.

TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL DUE TO
INCREASING CLOUDS AND NE FLOW. NEAR NORMAL READINGS ANTICIPATED
FRIDAY NIGHT. FOLLOWED A MOS BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GUIDANCE REMAINS MOSTLY CONSISTENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF A STORM
DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST THIS WEEKEND. FIRST...LOW PRESSURE MOVING
ALONG AN OFFSHORE FRONT WILL BRING MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN TO THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER ERN LONG ISLAND/SE CT WITH CAT POP...WITH
LIKELY POP AS FAR BACK AS NYC METRO. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING AND RAINFALL AMTS DURING THE DAY SAT BETWEEN THE LATEST
RUNS OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE...WITH THE LATEST GFS SOONER AND A
LITTLE FARTHER EAST...AND THE ECMWF WETTER AND LATER OUT
EAST...HAVE SMOOTHED OUT THESE DIFFERENCES FOR NOW WITH A GENERAL
ALL DAY EVENT.

FOCUS OF RAIN SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE EAST SAT NIGHT...WITH
DECREASING POP AS THIS FIRST LOW LIFTS TO THE NE. PRECIP COULD
BRIEFLY END AS SOME SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS WELL NORTH/WEST. AS A STRONGER LOW FORMS NEAR CAPE
HATTERAS AND THEN TRACKS OUTSIDE THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK BY DAYBREAK
SUNDAY...ITS RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE AS IT FAILS TO PHASE
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH TO ITS WEST. ITS MORE IMPORTANT IMPACTS WILL
BE AND COOLER CONDS ON SUNDAY...WITH A BRISK N FLOW AS AS THE LOW
INTENSIFIES AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AROUND BETWEEN IT
AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST. THERE SHOULD ALSO BE
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY STRATOCU AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS.
HIGHS WILL ONLY BARELY REACH 50 IN NYC METRO AND LONG ISLAND...AND
REMAIN IN THE 40S INLAND.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT SUNDAY NIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...BUT REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT THE BOUNDARY LAYER FROM
COMPLETELY DECOUPLING IN MOST PLACES. ASA RESULT STUCK CLOSE TO
GUIDANCE LOWS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND DID NOT UNDERCUT...WITH LOWS
25-30 WELL INLAND...LOWER 30S MOST ELSEWHERE...AND MID 30S FOR NYC.

AFTER ONE MORE COOL DAY ON MON WITH HIGHS AGAIN IN THE UPPER 40S AND
LOWER 50S...TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE MID
WEEK PERIOD AS A WARM FRONT PASSES TO THE NORTH AND HIGH PRESSURE
PASSES TO THE EAST. SHOULD THEN SEE A SERIES OF WEAK...FAST MOVING
COLD FRONTS PASSING THROUGH IN FAST QUASI-ZONAL FLOW...WITH CHANCE
POP FOR RAIN SHOWERS NORTH/WEST OF NYC ON WED...AND THROUGHOUT THE
AREA WED NIGHT INTO THU.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HI PRES SLIDES NORTH AND EAST OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH LOW PRES BEGINS TO DEVELOP S OF THE REGION FRI.

MAINLY VFR THROUGH TAF PERIOD. BKN 4-5 KFT STRATO CU THIS
AFTERNOON...BECOMING SCT TONIGHT. INCREASING LIKELIHOOD FOR BKN
STRATO-CU 3.5-4 KFT TO DEVELOP FRI MORNING. CIGS GRADUALLY LOWER TO
MVFR LATE FRI/FRI EVE ACROSS METRO TERMINALS WITH -RA DEVELOPING.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GENERALLY RUN BETWEEN 310 AND 350 DEGREES
MAGNETIC INTO THIS EVENING. DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL OCCASIONALLY
INCREASE THIS RANGE OF WIND DIRECTION VARIABILITY BY 20 DEGREES ON
EITHER SIDE WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KT THROUGH AROUND 22Z FOR
METRO TERMINALS. WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE N OVERNIGHT AND NE ON
FRIDAY.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS GENERALLY RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC THROUGH
THIS EVENING...BUT WILL OCCASIONALLY VARY BETWEEN 290 AND 360
MAGNETIC WITH GUSTS TO 20KT THROUGH AROUND 22Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS GENERALLY RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC THROUGH
THIS EVENING...BUT WILL OCCASIONALLY VARY BETWEEN 290 AND 360
MAGNETIC WITH GUSTS TO 20KT THROUGH AROUND 22Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS GENERALLY RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC THROUGH
THIS EVENING...BUT WILL OCCASIONALLY VARY BETWEEN 290 AND 360
MAGNETIC WITH GUSTS TO 20KT THROUGH AROUND 22Z.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS GENERALLY RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRI AFT...CIGS LOWER THRU THE AFT WITH MVFR POSSIBLE LATE.
.FRI NGT-SAT NGT...MVFR OR LOWER. PCPN MAINLY RAIN...BUT SNOW MAY
MIX IN ACROSS THE INTERIOR SUN NIGHT. NE-N WINDS 15-20G25-35KT.
.SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. AFT STRATO-CU WITH ISOLATED
FLURRIES/SPRINKLES. NW WINDS 20-25G30-35KT.
.MONDAY...VFR. WEST WINDS 5-10 KT.
.TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS THEN MOVES NORTHEASTWARD...NW WINDS WILL
TURN TOWARD THE N TONIGHT. THE WINDS THEN TURN TO THE NE AND
INCREASE LATER IN THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTH. THESE E/NE WINDS INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT...LIKELY TO SCA
THRESHOLDS.

RELATIVELY TRANQUIL SEAS BUILD LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
WINDS INCREASE. SCA CONDS ARE LIKELY BY SAT...BUT IT IS STILL
UNCERTAIN WHETHER GALES WILL DEVELOP THAT EARLY DUE TO TIMING
UNCERTAINTY OF AN INITIAL LOW PASSING TO THE SE. GALES APPEAR MORE
LIKELY LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS STRONGER LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS AND PASSES TO THE SE...WITH CAA OVER STILL RELATIVELY
MILD WATERS AND A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT.

AFTER SOME LINGERING GALES ON THE ERN OCEAN WATERS SUNDAY
EVENING...SCA CONDS SHOULD OTHERWISE FOLLOW FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MON FOR MOST WATERS. THEN QUIET CONDS SHOULD RETURN TO ALL WATERS
BY MON NIGHT. INCREASING SW FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT COULD BRING
A RETURN OF SCA CONDS TO THE ERN OCEAN WATERS LATE TUE NIGHT-WED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL FROM FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN UNDER A
HALF INCH...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS GENERALLY ACROSS ERN LONG
ISLAND AND SE CT. NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC IMPACT EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/PW
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...GOODMAN/PW
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/PW








000
FXUS61 KBOX 301935
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
335 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. A COASTAL STORM WILL LIKELY DELIVER A
GLANCING BLOW TO THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...BUT THE
OPPORTUNITY FOR A HIGHER IMPACT STILL EXISTS. MAINLY DRY WEATHER
FOLLOWS WITH A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND BY NEXT TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE TONIGHTS WEATHER WITH
CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED. LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND MAY BE ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
COMPLETELY RADIATING.  ANYWHERE THE WINDS DO CALM THE TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP A FEW DEGREES FAIRLY QUICKLY.  OVERALL...EXPECT LOWS IN
THE 30S AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...ANOTHER QUIET DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE LIFTS TO THE NORTH.
WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE EAST AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TOWARDS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FROM THE CAROLINA COAST...EXPECT IT TO FEEL A
BIT COOLER THAN TODAY.  OTHERWISE...INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE
APPROACHING COASTAL LOW.

FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS WITH THE UPCOMING STORM MOST OF THIS WILL AFFECT THE
WEEKENDS WEATHER SO WILL MOSTLY DISCUSS IT IN THE LONG TERM SECTION.
SHOULD MOSTLY SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.  THIS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...RAIN
AND/OR SHOWERS WILL LIKELY MOVE ONTO THE SOUTH COAST AND INTO
SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS TOWARDS DAYBREAK SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* GLANCING BLOW MOST LIKELY SAT/EARLY SUNDAY...BUT GREATER IMPACT
  STILL POSSIBLE
* BIGGEST CONCERN IS STRONG WINDS THIS WEEKEND ESPECIALLY CAPE COD
* ACCUMULATING SNOW IS STILL POSSIBLE...BUT A LOW PROBABILITY
* MUCH MILDER WEATHER RETURNS BY NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY

OVERVIEW...30/00Z GUIDANCE HAD COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
REGARDING THEIR HANDLING OF A SIGNIFICANT COASTAL STORM THIS
WEEKEND. THERE ARE A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS THAT SUGGEST A CLOSER
TRACK TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND REMAINS POSSIBLE...BUT NOT VERY
LIKELY. THE PREDOMINANT SIGNAL IS FOR A TRACK REMAINING SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. WILL FAVOR A CONSENSUS BLEND TO
SMOOTH OVER AS MANY MINOR DIFFERENCES AS POSSIBLE.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS REMAINS MODERATE FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD. THE BIGGEST CONCERN REMAIN POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO PERHAPS
DAMAGING WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET. THERE
ARE TWO MAIN SHORTWAVES INVOLVED IN THIS STORM/S FORMATION.
INITIALLY...MOST MODELS FORM AN ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OR
EVEN TWO CENTERS BEFORE CONSOLIDATING INTO A SINGLE PRIMARY STORM.
CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS HAPPENS TOO LATE FOR A
SIGNIFICANT RAIN/SNOW EVENT IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

PRECIPITATION TYPE AND TIMING...A LOT OF THIS WILL DEPEND ON HOW
FAR WEST THE MAIN PRECIPITATION SHIELD REACHES. MOST OF THE
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE...WHICH
WOULD ALSO SUGGEST A RATHER SHARP WESTERN EDGE TO THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD. MINOR WOBBLES IN THE TRACK...COULD HAVE A
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON WHERE THIS EDGE TO THE PRECIPITATION
ESTABLISHES ITSELF.

INITIALLY...ALL PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN OR JUST
SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY. IN FACT...MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL
BE OVER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND...WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN
SECTIONS IF THE CURRENT TRACK VERIFIES. IF THIS TRACK SHIFTS WEST
AND WE END UP GETTING INTO HEAVIER PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SUNDAY...DYNAMIC COOLING COULD RESULT IN SOME SNOW ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN...BASED ON THE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TRACK...ACCUMULATING
SNOW IS A RATHER LOW PROBABILITY. REGARDLESS...MOST PRECIPITATION
SHOULD HAVE EXITED OUR REGION BY MID MORNING SUNDAY.

STRONG WINDS...
STRONG WINDS ARE THE ONE THING WE ARE FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT WILL
DEVELOP. EXCELLENT MIXING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS STORM SHOULD
RESULT IN NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH DEVELOPING
LATE SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AS MIXING INCREASES. ACROSS
CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THIS STORM...WE
MAY SEE A PERIOD OF 50 TO 60 MPH WIND GUSTS. WIND ADVISORIES MAY
BE NEEDED FOR MUCH OF THE REGION AND PERHAPS HIGH WIND
WATCHES/WARNINGS FOR THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET. GIVEN MANY TREES
STILL HAVE AT LEAST SOME LEAVES ON THEM...THE RISK FOR TREE DAMAGE
AND ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES WILL BE ENHANCED.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE REGION AND WE ENTER AN
AREA OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND EXPECTED
WITH SOME OF THE COASTAL PLAIN POSSIBLY SEEING HIGHS BREAK 60 BY
TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. MAINLY DRY WEATHER OVER THIS TIME...BUT A
SPOT SHOWER OR TWO IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY TOWARD WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

18Z TODAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE THROUGH
THE NIGHT TO MVFR/IFR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.  RAIN/SHOWERS EXPECTED
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND INTO SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AS WE NEAR
DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE. MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS VFR TO
BE MIXED AT TIMES WITH MVFR LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
LOWER CONDITIONS MOST LIKELY ALONG THE COAST WITH RAIN OR
SCATTERED SHOWERS.

LOW PROBABILITY FOR A CHANGE TO SNOW AT THE END. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE SUNDAY...BUT NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS
OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS EXPECTED. STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS CAPE COD AND
NANTUCKET WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS POSSIBLE.

MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE.  HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THROUGH FRIDAY WITH WINDS
AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SCA CRITERIA.  WINDS SHIFT FROM THE
NORTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST THEN EAST FRIDAY.  THESE EASTERLY WINDS
AND SEAS INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE WATERS
FROM THE CAROLINAS.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL
OF THE WATERS FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF FRIDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THOUGH TUESDAY...

***STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS AND 20 FOOT SEAS POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY
 INTO SUNDAY ACROSS THE OPEN ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF
 MASSACHUSETTS***

FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. INCREASING NE WINDS. GUSTS UP TO
30 KT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 5 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. HIGH IMPACT MARINE
EVENT EXPECTED. WHILE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON THE EXACT TRACK AND
TIMING OF A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE...HIGH CONFIDENCE GALE FORCE
NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS ACROSS MOST WATERS LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
IN FACT...MODERATE RISK FOR A PERIOD OF STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS
WITH 20 FOOT SEAS ACROSS THE OPEN ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF
MASSACHUSETTS. EXACT WIND SPEEDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS WILL DEPEND UPON
THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY OF COASTAL LOW PRESSURE. A MARINE
WEATHER STATEMENT WAS ISSUED TO ADDRESS THESE CONCERNS.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. NORTHWEST 25-30 KT WIND GUSTS AND
SEAS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE MUCH OF THE DAY WITH GOOD MIXING IN THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES ARE RATHER LOW SATURDAY EVENING AND AGAIN
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.  HOWEVER...STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND HIGH
SEAS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO RESULT IN MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND
BEACH EROSION ALONG THE EASTERN MA COAST...PARTICULARLY THE NORTH
SIDE OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET HARBOR DURING BOTH HIGH TIDE CYCLES.

THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY REVOLVES AROUND WHEN AND HOW STRONG THE
WINDS/SEAS WILL GET.  THE MODELS SEEM TO BE SHOWING TWO PULSES OF
WIND WITH TWO WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE.  THE FIRST ONE APPEARS TO BE
SATURDAY EVENING WITH THE SECOND ONE SUNDAY MORNING.  THE POTENTIAL
CONTINUES FOR WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 KNOTS AND SEAS BUILDING TO 20 FEET
ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS EAST OF MASSACHUSETTS.  THE TREND OF THE 12Z
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TO SHOW THE STRONGEST WINDS/HIGHEST SEAS WITH THE
SATURDAY EVENING PULSE.  WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE HOW THE MODELS
TREND...BUT STILL FEEL BOTH HIGH TIDE CYCLES ARE AT RISK WITH A 1 TO
2 FOOT STORM SURGE.

AREAS OF GREATEST CONCERN APPEAR TO BE THE NORTH SIDE OF CAPE
COD...SUCH AS SANDWICH...BARNSTABLE...DENNIS...BREWSTER AND POSSIBLY
EASTHAM. OTHER TYPICAL HOT SPOTS WILL BE SALISBURY AND PLUM
ISLAND...HULL...SCITUATE AND PERHAPS SANDWICH HARBOR AND NANTUCKET
HARBOR. AGAIN...THE MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AS
WELL AS BEACH EROSION.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/RLG
NEAR TERM...RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/RLG
MARINE...BELK/RLG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KALY 301933
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
333 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE FAIR AND SEASONABLY COOL
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. COLDER AIR WILL
ARRIVE DURING THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG STORM FORMS WELL OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. THE COLDER AIR WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE AREA OF
CLOUDINESS COVERING MOST OF UPSTATE NEW YORK WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE HUDSON VALLEY WHERE DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY FLOW HAS RESULTED IN
SOME CLEARING. A FEW SCATTERED SPRINKLES ARE PERSISTING OVER THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS BUT THOSE WILL BE DIMINISHING TOWARD EVENING.
CLEARING WILL CONTINUE OVER THE HUDSON VALLEY THIS EVENING WITH AT
LEAST SOME CLEARING ELSEWHERE AS A SMALL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO MID 30S
IN MOST AREAS.



&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MAIN FEATURE TO MONITOR DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE A
STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL WAVE CURRENTLY DIVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES PER LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. MODELS ARE NOW IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT THIS WAVE WILL
DIVE SOUTH AND CLOSE-OFF OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS
BY FRIDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
VIRGINIA COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING BUT THIS LOW WILL TRACK WELL TO
THE EAST OF OUR AREA LATER SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
MINIMAL IMPACTS FOR MOST AREAS. EXCEPTION COULD BE OVER THE FAR
EAST WHERE SOME STEADIER PRECIPITATION MIGHT DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL
OR WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR SATURDAY EVENING
DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE STORM. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING THAT THE SHIELD OF STEADY
PRECIPITATION WILL GET AS FAR WEST AS CENTRAL MASS... WHILE THE
NAM IS A BIT FARTHER EAST.

OTHERWISE THE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT PERIOD WILL BE
COOL WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.
HAVE GONE WITH POP VALUES MAINLY NEAR 30 PERCENT FROM FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT TO COVER FOR THIS. EXPECT LOWEST POPS TO BE
IN THE HUDSON VALLEY. ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WILL
BE WEST OF THE CATSKILLS AS THE FLOW WILL BE NNW INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING
A DRY UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY BUT WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE.


&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE MODERATING WEATHER AS THE
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD
THE NORTH ATLANTIC WITH RIDGING BUILDING NORTHEAST FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH A WARMING TREND. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL PASS EAST
ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS... FOLLOWED
BY COOLER BUT NOT REALLY VERY COLD WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK. GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AND
CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE LATER TIME PERIODS OF THE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. SKIES
WILL BE BKN- 0VC WITH CIGS RANGING FROM 4-6 KFT THIS AFTERNOON...
THEN SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH MAINLY SCT CLOUD
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY ALONG WITH SCT STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS BUT AGAIN CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE DAY.

WINDS WILL BE WNW AT 5 TO 15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW GUSTS
TO 20 KTS... BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KTS TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY NO SIG WX. SUNDAY NIGHT: NO
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...ESP AT
NIGHT WHEN VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT. WINDS WILL NE NORTHWEST
AT 5 TO 15 MPH TODAY...AND LIGHT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRODUCES SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

ANY PRECIP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT...AND BASIN
AVERAGE AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW RIVER LEVELS TO HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM








000
FXUS61 KBOX 301920
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
320 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. A COASTAL STORM WILL LIKELY DELIVER A
GLANCING BLOW TO THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...BUT THE
OPPORTUNITY FOR A HIGHER IMPACT STILL EXISTS. MAINLY DRY WEATHER
FOLLOWS WITH A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND BY NEXT TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE...MADE SOME CHANGES TO THE SKY FORECAST BASED ON THE
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY.  OTHERWISE...FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

FOR TODAY...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AS WEAK HIGH PRES APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY AS H5 SHORT WAVE CROSSES THE
REGION...PUSHING OFFSHORE BY MIDDAY. H85 TEMPS DO FALL DURING THE
DAY...THOUGH LOOKS LIKE THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR REMAINS TO THE N.
TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLE FOR LATE OCTOBER...TOPPING OFF IN THE
50S. EXPECT LIGHT W-NW WINDS WITH A LIGHT PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...
EXPECT THE WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGE TO BUILD E ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. LIGHT N WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE WHICH WILL VEER TO
NE AFTER MIDNIGHT. MAY SEE SOME MORE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP IN THE
NORMALLY PRONE VALLEY AREAS.

NOTING LOW PRES OVER THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AS A DIGGING H5
SHORT WAVE DIVES SE. SW FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE...SO COULD
SEE SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WORK INTO WESTERN AREAS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WITH THE COLDER AIR WORKING IN ALONG WITH A GENERAL
LIGHT WIND IN PLACE...EXPECT LOWS FALLING BACK TO THE 30S FOR MOST
AREAS...RANGING TO LOWER-MID 40S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WILL
NEED TO MONITOR FOR FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES MAY BE NECESSARY FOR
S/E COASTAL MA AND RI.

FRIDAY...
MAJOR DIGGING H5 LONG WAVE TROUGH/CUTOFF LOW TAKES SHAPE ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...WHICH SETS UP AN
INCREASING SW FLOW ALOFT ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. HOWEVER...AT
THE SURFACE...GENERAL LIGHT FLOW CONTINUES THOUGH E-NE WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO FRESHEN DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE S COAST. BIG
QUESTION AT THIS POINT...WHERE LOW PRES DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLC
OR SE U.S. COAST FRI AFTERNOON.

EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE WITH THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL ONSHORE
FLOW IN PLACE. THIS WILL HOLD TEMPS BACK. HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH
THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SW NH/W MA...RANGING TO
THE LOWER-MID 50S ELSEWHERE.

AT THIS POINT...NOT EXPECTING ORGANIZED PRECIP DURING THE DAY ON
FRIDAY AS BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE REMAINS S OF THE REGION.
HOWEVER...COULD SEE SOME OCEAN INDUCED LIGHT SPRINKLES OR EVEN
SOME COASTAL DRIZZLE. DID NOT MENTION THIS FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* GLANCING BLOW MOST LIKELY SAT/EARLY SUNDAY...BUT GREATER IMPACT
  STILL POSSIBLE
* BIGGEST CONCERN IS STRONG WINDS THIS WEEKEND ESPECIALLY CAPE COD
* ACCUMULATING SNOW IS STILL POSSIBLE...BUT A LOW PROBABILITY
* MUCH MILDER WEATHER RETURNS BY NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY

OVERVIEW...30/00Z GUIDANCE HAD COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
REGARDING THEIR HANDLING OF A SIGNIFICANT COASTAL STORM THIS
WEEKEND. THERE ARE A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS THAT SUGGEST A CLOSER
TRACK TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND REMAINS POSSIBLE...BUT NOT VERY
LIKELY. THE PREDOMINANT SIGNAL IS FOR A TRACK REMAINING SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. WILL FAVOR A CONSENSUS BLEND TO
SMOOTH OVER AS MANY MINOR DIFFERENCES AS POSSIBLE.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS REMAINS MODERATE FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD. THE BIGGEST CONCERN REMAIN POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO PERHAPS
DAMAGING WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET. THERE
ARE TWO MAIN SHORTWAVES INVOLVED IN THIS STORM/S FORMATION.
INITIALLY...MOST MODELS FORM AN ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OR
EVEN TWO CENTERS BEFORE CONSOLIDATING INTO A SINGLE PRIMARY STORM.
CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS HAPPENS TOO LATE FOR A
SIGNIFICANT RAIN/SNOW EVENT IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

PRECIPITATION TYPE AND TIMING...A LOT OF THIS WILL DEPEND ON HOW
FAR WEST THE MAIN PRECIPITATION SHIELD REACHES. MOST OF THE
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE...WHICH
WOULD ALSO SUGGEST A RATHER SHARP WESTERN EDGE TO THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD. MINOR WOBBLES IN THE TRACK...COULD HAVE A
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON WHERE THIS EDGE TO THE PRECIPITATION
ESTABLISHES ITSELF.

INITIALLY...ALL PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN OR JUST
SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY. IN FACT...MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL
BE OVER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND...WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN
SECTIONS IF THE CURRENT TRACK VERIFIES. IF THIS TRACK SHIFTS WEST
AND WE END UP GETTING INTO HEAVIER PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SUNDAY...DYNAMIC COOLING COULD RESULT IN SOME SNOW ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN...BASED ON THE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TRACK...ACCUMULATING
SNOW IS A RATHER LOW PROBABILITY. REGARDLESS...MOST PRECIPITATION
SHOULD HAVE EXITED OUR REGION BY MID MORNING SUNDAY.

STRONG WINDS...
STRONG WINDS ARE THE ONE THING WE ARE FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT WILL
DEVELOP. EXCELLENT MIXING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS STORM SHOULD
RESULT IN NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH DEVELOPING
LATE SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AS MIXING INCREASES. ACROSS
CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THIS STORM...WE
MAY SEE A PERIOD OF 50 TO 60 MPH WIND GUSTS. WIND ADVISORIES MAY
BE NEEDED FOR MUCH OF THE REGION AND PERHAPS HIGH WIND
WATCHES/WARNINGS FOR THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET. GIVEN MANY TREES
STILL HAVE AT LEAST SOME LEAVES ON THEM...THE RISK FOR TREE DAMAGE
AND ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES WILL BE ENHANCED.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE REGION AND WE ENTER AN
AREA OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND EXPECTED
WITH SOME OF THE COASTAL PLAIN POSSIBLY SEEING HIGHS BREAK 60 BY
TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. MAINLY DRY WEATHER OVER THIS TIME...BUT A
SPOT SHOWER OR TWO IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY TOWARD WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH
TONIGHT...THEN MODERATE CONFIDENCE FRIDAY.

TODAY...VFR. SCT-BKN CLOUDS 4-5KFT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...VFR. INCREASING CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT. MAY SEE LOCAL
MVFR-IFR ACROSS SW NH INTO NW MA LATE. SHALLOW PATCHY GROUND FOG
POSSIBLE AT PRONE TERMINALS.

FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. WINDS SHIFT TO E-NE DURING DAY...INCREASING
ALONG COAST TO 10-15 KT WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 KT LATE IN DAY.
MAY SEE MVFR CIGS DEVELOP ALONG E COAST TERMINALS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WIDELY SCT SHOWERS ALONG S COAST POSSIBLE LATE.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR TO START BUT ONSHORE FLOW
MAY RESULT IN MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING. A SPOT SHOWER OR TWO POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE. MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS VFR TO
BE MIXED AT TIMES WITH MVFR LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
LOWER CONDITIONS MOST LIKELY ALONG THE COAST WITH RAIN OR
SCATTERED SHOWERS.

LOW PROBABILITY FOR A CHANGE TO SNOW AT THE END. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE SUNDAY...BUT NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS
OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS EXPECTED. STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS CAPE COD AND
NANTUCKET WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS POSSIBLE.

MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS E
AND S OF CAPE COD THIS MORNING. EXPECTING WINDS AND SEAS BELOW
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

TONIGHT...LIGHT NE WINDS AND SEAS UP TO 3 FT.

FRIDAY...WINDS BECOME E-NE BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA. SEAS SLOWLY INCREASE TO 3 FT ON SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THOUGH MONDAY...

***STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS AND 20 FOOT SEAS POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY
 INTO SUNDAY ACROSS THE OPEN ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF
 MASSACHUSETTS***

FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. INCREASING NE WINDS. GUSTS UP TO
30 KT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 5 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. HIGH IMPACT MARINE
EVENT EXPECTED. WHILE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON THE EXACT TRACK AND
TIMING OF A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE...HIGH CONFIDENCE GALE FORCE
NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS ACROSS MOST WATERS LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
IN FACT...MODERATE RISK FOR A PERIOD OF STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS
WITH 20 FOOT SEAS ACROSS THE OPEN ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF
MASSACHUSETTS. EXACT WIND SPEEDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS WILL DEPEND UPON
THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY OF COASTAL LOW PRESSURE. A MARINE
WEATHER STATEMENT WAS ISSUED TO ADDRESS THESE CONCERNS.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. NORTHWEST 25-30 KT WIND GUSTS AND
SEAS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE MUCH OF THE DAY WITH GOOD MIXING IN THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES ARE RATHER LOW SATURDAY EVENING AND AGAIN
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.  HOWEVER...STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND HIGH
SEAS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO RESULT IN MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND
BEACH EROSION ALONG THE EASTERN MA COAST...PARTICULARLY THE NORTH
SIDE OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET HARBOR DURING BOTH HIGH TIDE CYCLES.

THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY REVOLVES AROUND WHEN AND HOW STRONG THE
WINDS/SEAS WILL GET.  THE MODELS SEEM TO BE SHOWING TWO PULSES OF
WIND WITH TWO WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE.  THE FIRST ONE APPEARS TO BE
SATURDAY EVENING WITH THE SECOND ONE SUNDAY MORNING.  THE POTENTIAL
CONTINUES FOR WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 KNOTS AND SEAS BUILDING TO 20 FEET
ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS EAST OF MASSACHUSETTS.  THE TREND OF THE 12Z
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TO SHOW THE STRONGEST WINDS/HIGHEST SEAS WITH THE
SATURDAY EVENING PULSE.  WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE HOW THE MODELS
TREND...BUT STILL FEEL BOTH HIGH TIDE CYCLES ARE AT RISK WITH A 1 TO
2 FOOT STORM SURGE.

AREAS OF GREATEST CONCERN APPEAR TO BE THE NORTH SIDE OF CAPE
COD...SUCH AS SANDWICH...BARNSTABLE...DENNIS...BREWSTER AND POSSIBLY
EASTHAM. OTHER TYPICAL HOT SPOTS WILL BE SALISBURY AND PLUM
ISLAND...HULL...SCITUATE AND PERHAPS SANDWICH HARBOR AND NANTUCKET
HARBOR. AGAIN...THE MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AS
WELL AS BEACH EROSION.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/EVT
NEAR TERM...BELK/RLG/EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/EVT
MARINE...BELK/EVT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...FRANK




000
FXUS61 KOKX 301805
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
205 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY...THEN TRACKS
NORTHEAST TO EAST OF CAPE COD BY SATURDAY EVENING. MEANWHILE A
SECONDARY LOW FORMS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY...THEN
TRACKS NORTHEAST TO THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES BY SUNDAY
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS STORM THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT...THEN MOVES OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT APPROACHING ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATES ON LATEST T/TD TRENDS...AND CLOUDS. PASSAGE OF 700-500
HPA TROUGH AXIS WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED-BROKEN CLOUDS. DOWNSLOPE
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS EXPECTED TO SERVE AS A LIMITING FACTOR.

LATEST HOURLY GUIDANCE IN LINE WITH FORECAST HIGHS. EXPECT HIGHS
TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
A 850-500 HPA SHORTWAVE RIDGE CROSSES THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH
ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE PROMOTING MINIMAL CLOUD COVER AND
DIMINISHING WINDS. AS A RESULT...HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS LOWER OF
MET/MAV/ECS GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES FOR LOWS. NOT
QUITE CERTAIN ENOUGH OF A COMPLETELY CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS TO
GO COLDER AT THIS TIME. LOWS SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL.

A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS NNW FROM COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING OFF
THE VA/NC COAST FRIDAY TOWARDS LONG ISLAND. THIS COUPLED WITH A
PASSING WEAK 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE WARRANTS INCREASING CLOUD COVER
OVER THE ENTIRE REGION AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR -SHRA OVER
MAINLY LONG ISLAND FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR HIGHS FRIDAY...A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 900-875 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGIZES A SURFACE LOW EMERGING OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. MODEL CONSENSUS AND THEIR
RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEANS STRENGTHEN THIS STORM AS IT HEADS
NE...PASSING SE OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. A SURFACE TROUGH FIRST BRINGS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
TO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. AT LEAST CHANCE POPS REMAIN ON SATURDAY
WITH SOME MID LEVEL LIFT...ALTHOUGH MODEL QPF OUTPUT SUGGESTS
THAT COASTAL AREAS WARRANT LIKELY POPS...BEING CLOSER TO THE
STORM CENTER. CHANCES OF RAINFALL THEN DIMINISH THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT AS THE STORM SHIFTS FARTHER OUT TO SEA...WITH DRY WEATHER
BY SUNDAY MORNING.

THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST AN ALL RAIN EVENT. BY THE TIME FREEZING
LEVELS AND WET BULB ZEROES LOWER ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A MIX OF RAIN
AND SNOW...PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE ENDED OR WILL JUST ABOUT TO
END. THIS WOULD BE THE CASE FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1000 FT NORTH
AND WEST OF THE CITY. WITH SUCH LIMITED COVERAGE OF A LOW
PROBABILITY EVENT...HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION OF SNOW FROM THE
GRIDS.

WINDS WILL END UP BEING THE BIGGER STORY...AND WILL BE AT THEIR
STRONGEST FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. COULD
GET CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA AT SOME POINT DURING THIS
PERIOD...SO WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IS
EXPECTED TO BE DRY. HIGHS ON SUNDAY AVERAGING AT LEAST 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...WITH WIND CHILL VALUES AROUND 30 DEGREES FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE MORNING. THE GROWING SEASON THEN PROBABLY ENDS
FOR MORE OF THE ZONES OUTSIDE OF THE CITY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS
AROUND THE FREEZING MARK. TEMPS THEN BEGIN THEIR CLIMB BACK
TOWARDS NORMAL ON MONDAY...BEFORE REACHING NEAR NORMAL ON TUESDAY
WITH A SW FLOW.

NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THEN ARRIVES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH A WARM FRONT PASSAGE FOLLOWED BY THE APPROACH OF A COLD
FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HI PRES SLIDES NORTH OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH LOW
PRES BEGINS TO DEVELOP S OF THE REGION FRI.

MAINLY VFR THROUGH TAF PERIOD. SCT-BKN 4-5 KFT STRATO CU THIS
AFTERNOON...BECOMING SCT TONIGHT. INCREASING LIKELIHOOD FOR BKN
STRATO-CU 3.5-4 KFT TO DEVELOP FRI MORNING. INCREASING POTENTIAL
FOR CIGS TO LOWER TO MVFR TOWARDS FRI EVE ACROSS METRO TERMINALS
WITH -RA DEVELOPING.

NW WINDS...BACKING TO THE WNW LATE THIS AFT INTO EARLY
EVE...S COASTS. DIRECTION VEERS TO THE N OVERNIGHT AND NE ON
FRIDAY.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS GENERALLY RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC
THROUGH THIS EVENING...BUT WAVERING BETWEEN 290 AND 310 MAGNETIC
THROUGH 23Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS GENERALLY RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS GENERALLY RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC
THROUGH THIS EVENING...BUT WAVERING BETWEEN 290 AND 310 MAGNETIC
THROUGH 23Z.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS GENERALLY RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRI AFT...CIGS LOWER THRU THE AFT WITH MVFR POSSIBLE LATE.
.FRI NGT-SAT NGT...MVFR OR LOWER. PCPN MAINLY RAIN...BUT SNOW MAY
MIX IN ACROSS THE INTERIOR SUN NIGHT. NE-N WINDS 15-20G25-35KT.
.SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. AFT STRATO-CU WITH ISOLATED
FLURRIES/SPRINKLES. NW WINDS 20-25G30-35KT.
.MONDAY...VFR. WEST WINDS 5-10 KT.
.TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK. A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
THE WATERS AROUND LONG ISLAND WILL RESULT IN WINDS 10 KT OR LESS
THROUGH FRIDAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS IS POSSIBLY OVER THE
FAR EASTERN COASTAL OCEAN WATERS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WHERE NE
FLOW COULD STRENGTHEN TO UP TO 15 KT. AS A RESULT...SUB-SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON ALL MARINE ZONES THROUGH FRIDAY.

SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ON ALL WATERS FROM FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING AS NE FLOW STRENGTHENS...THEN EXPECT
NORTHERLY GALES ON THE OCEAN BY SAT AFTERNOON...AND N-NW GALES ON
ALL WATERS - ESPECIALLY THE OCEAN AND THE ERN SOUND/BAYS SAT NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FROM SUNDAY
NIGHT ON...WITH SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON THE SOUND/HARBOR/BAYS BY MON
MORNING...AND ON THE OCEAN BY MON NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AT MOST A
FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL FRIDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY
ACROSS LONG ISLAND.

RAINFALL FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN UNDER A HALF INCH WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS GENERALLY ACROSS
THE COASTAL AREAS. NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC IMPACT IS EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/PW
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...JC/MALOIT/PW
HYDROLOGY...JC/MALOIT







000
FXUS61 KALY 301748
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
148 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE FAIR AND SEASONABLY COOL
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. COLDER AIR WILL
ARRIVE DURING THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG STORM FORMS WELL OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. THE COLDER AIR WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED AT 1 PM... 12Z BUF AND ALB SOUNDINGS BOTH SHOWING A MOIST
LAYER BENEATH AN INVERSION AROUND 750 MB. RESULT IS A LARGE AREA
OF CLOUDINESS COVERING MOST OF NY STATE. HOWEVER DOWNSLOPING HAS
RESULTED IN SOME CLEARING IN THE HUDSON RIVER AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS.
THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY WITH PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
IN THE VALLEY AND FARTHER EAST. TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
RANGE FROM THE MID 40S AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO THE MID 50S IN THE
HUDSON VALLEY... AND HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW.

UPDATED AT 1030 AM... LOT OF CLOUDS COVERING CENTRAL NY THIS
MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A 500 MB SHORT WAVE AND SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT SOUTHEAST AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THESE CLOUDS HAVE
BEEN BREAKING UP AS THEY DOWNSLOPE INTO THE MID AND LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER VT AND WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOSTLY IN
THE LOWER TO MID 50S WITH SOME 40S OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW.

AS OF 630 AM...STLT PICS SHOW CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE CLOUD BAND OVER THE REGION
WILL SLOWLY BREAK UP TODAY AND ALLOW FOR AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY SKIES
BY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS
THIS MORNING OVER THE SCHOHARIE AND MOHAWK VALLEYS AND THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS. HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

FOR THIS UPDATE HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY RAISED THE HOURLY TEMP GRIDS
BECAUSE CURRENT TEMPS WERE MUCH WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HOLD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY. GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY...WITH SOME AREAS OF MOSTLY CLEAR LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY. BY LATE FRIDAY CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL TRACK WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A STRONG SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO
DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND THEN TRACK NORTHEAST. ANY
SIGNIFICANT PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE LOW WILL MISS THE
ALBANY FORECAST AREA...BUT THERE WILL BE SOME RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL
TROF...AND HAVE FORECAST 30 TO 50 PERCENT POPS DURING THIS PERIOD.

LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. HIGHS SATURDAY
IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES A CHILLY START TO CLOSE THE
WEEKEND..BUT THEN MODERATING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID WEEK BEFORE
THE NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES.  THE WPC GUIDANCE WAS FAVORED IN THE
LONG TERM.  THE ECMWF...GFS...AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT WITH WPC.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...IMPRESSIVE H500 UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
OVER THE ERN CONUS.  SIGNIFICANT OCEANIC CYCLONE LOOKS TO STAY FAR
ENOUGH OFFSHORE FOR MINIMAL IMPACT IN TERMS OF PCPN...BUT IT WILL BE
COLD AND WINDY.  THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT SNOW
SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR FILTERS IN.  ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE LIGHT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO M20S OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...AND U20S TO L30S IN THE VALLEYS.  BY SUNDAY...THE SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS BETWEEN THE OCEAN CYCLONE AND A SFC
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE TN VALLEY.  BRISK N/NW WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH
AND H850 TEMPS OF -4C TO -8C WILL MAY IT FEEL LIKE WINTER! EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE 30S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND U30S TO M40S IN THE
VALLEYS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...FAIR AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTHEAST INTO THE FCST AREA FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC REGION.  A VERY COLD NIGHT IS
EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.  MONDAY...TEMPS CREEP CLOSER TO
NORMAL EARLY NOVEMBER READINGS BUT STILL WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL BY 5
DEGREES OR SO WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO L50S...THOUGH A FEW
U30S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SRN DACKS.  A WARM FRONT STARTS TO APPROACH
FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AND OHIO VALLEY WITH AN INCREASE
IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MON NIGHT.  TEMPS WILL BE A TAD WARMER IN THE
30S.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...A NICE DAY IS EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH A
MILDER AIR MASS BUILDING IN ACROSS THE REGION.  IN THE WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN...H850 TEMPS RISE BACK TO +8C TO +12C.  EXPECT
HIGHS TEMPS TO BE CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WED WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS.  TEMPS SHOULD STILL RUN AT
NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL READINGS FOR THE MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. SKIES
WILL BE BKN- 0VC WITH CIGS RANGING FROM 4-6 KFT THIS AFTERNOON...
THEN SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH MAINLY SCT CLOUD
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY ALONG WITH SCT STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS BUT AGAIN CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE DAY.

WINDS WILL BE WNW AT 5 TO 15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW GUSTS
TO 20 KTS... BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KTS TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY NO SIG WX. SUNDAY NIGHT: NO
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...ESP AT
NIGHT WHEN VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT. WINDS WILL NE NORTHWEST
AT 5 TO 15 MPH TODAY...AND LIGHT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRODUCES SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

ANY PRECIP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT...AND BASIN
AVERAGE AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW RIVER LEVELS TO HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...








000
FXUS61 KALY 301748
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
148 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE FAIR AND SEASONABLY COOL
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. COLDER AIR WILL
ARRIVE DURING THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG STORM FORMS WELL OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. THE COLDER AIR WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED AT 1 PM... 12Z BUF AND ALB SOUNDINGS BOTH SHOWING A MOIST
LAYER BENEATH AN INVERSION AROUND 750 MB. RESULT IS A LARGE AREA
OF CLOUDINESS COVERING MOST OF NY STATE. HOWEVER DOWNSLOPING HAS
RESULTED IN SOME CLEARING IN THE HUDSON RIVER AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS.
THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY WITH PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
IN THE VALLEY AND FARTHER EAST. TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
RANGE FROM THE MID 40S AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO THE MID 50S IN THE
HUDSON VALLEY... AND HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW.

UPDATED AT 1030 AM... LOT OF CLOUDS COVERING CENTRAL NY THIS
MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A 500 MB SHORT WAVE AND SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT SOUTHEAST AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THESE CLOUDS HAVE
BEEN BREAKING UP AS THEY DOWNSLOPE INTO THE MID AND LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER VT AND WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOSTLY IN
THE LOWER TO MID 50S WITH SOME 40S OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW.

AS OF 630 AM...STLT PICS SHOW CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE CLOUD BAND OVER THE REGION
WILL SLOWLY BREAK UP TODAY AND ALLOW FOR AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY SKIES
BY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS
THIS MORNING OVER THE SCHOHARIE AND MOHAWK VALLEYS AND THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS. HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

FOR THIS UPDATE HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY RAISED THE HOURLY TEMP GRIDS
BECAUSE CURRENT TEMPS WERE MUCH WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HOLD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY. GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY...WITH SOME AREAS OF MOSTLY CLEAR LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY. BY LATE FRIDAY CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL TRACK WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A STRONG SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO
DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND THEN TRACK NORTHEAST. ANY
SIGNIFICANT PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE LOW WILL MISS THE
ALBANY FORECAST AREA...BUT THERE WILL BE SOME RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL
TROF...AND HAVE FORECAST 30 TO 50 PERCENT POPS DURING THIS PERIOD.

LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. HIGHS SATURDAY
IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES A CHILLY START TO CLOSE THE
WEEKEND..BUT THEN MODERATING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID WEEK BEFORE
THE NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES.  THE WPC GUIDANCE WAS FAVORED IN THE
LONG TERM.  THE ECMWF...GFS...AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT WITH WPC.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...IMPRESSIVE H500 UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
OVER THE ERN CONUS.  SIGNIFICANT OCEANIC CYCLONE LOOKS TO STAY FAR
ENOUGH OFFSHORE FOR MINIMAL IMPACT IN TERMS OF PCPN...BUT IT WILL BE
COLD AND WINDY.  THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT SNOW
SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR FILTERS IN.  ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE LIGHT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO M20S OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...AND U20S TO L30S IN THE VALLEYS.  BY SUNDAY...THE SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS BETWEEN THE OCEAN CYCLONE AND A SFC
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE TN VALLEY.  BRISK N/NW WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH
AND H850 TEMPS OF -4C TO -8C WILL MAY IT FEEL LIKE WINTER! EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE 30S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND U30S TO M40S IN THE
VALLEYS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...FAIR AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTHEAST INTO THE FCST AREA FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC REGION.  A VERY COLD NIGHT IS
EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.  MONDAY...TEMPS CREEP CLOSER TO
NORMAL EARLY NOVEMBER READINGS BUT STILL WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL BY 5
DEGREES OR SO WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO L50S...THOUGH A FEW
U30S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SRN DACKS.  A WARM FRONT STARTS TO APPROACH
FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AND OHIO VALLEY WITH AN INCREASE
IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MON NIGHT.  TEMPS WILL BE A TAD WARMER IN THE
30S.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...A NICE DAY IS EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH A
MILDER AIR MASS BUILDING IN ACROSS THE REGION.  IN THE WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN...H850 TEMPS RISE BACK TO +8C TO +12C.  EXPECT
HIGHS TEMPS TO BE CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WED WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS.  TEMPS SHOULD STILL RUN AT
NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL READINGS FOR THE MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. SKIES
WILL BE BKN- 0VC WITH CIGS RANGING FROM 4-6 KFT THIS AFTERNOON...
THEN SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH MAINLY SCT CLOUD
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY ALONG WITH SCT STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS BUT AGAIN CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE DAY.

WINDS WILL BE WNW AT 5 TO 15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW GUSTS
TO 20 KTS... BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KTS TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY NO SIG WX. SUNDAY NIGHT: NO
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...ESP AT
NIGHT WHEN VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT. WINDS WILL NE NORTHWEST
AT 5 TO 15 MPH TODAY...AND LIGHT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRODUCES SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

ANY PRECIP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT...AND BASIN
AVERAGE AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW RIVER LEVELS TO HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...








000
FXUS61 KALY 301705
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
105 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE FAIR AND SEASONABLY COOL
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. COLDER AIR WILL
ARRIVE DURING THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG STORM FORMS WELL OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. THE COLDER AIR WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED AT 1 PM... 12Z BUF AND ALB SOUNDINGS BOTH SHOWING A MOIST
LAYER BENEATH AN INVERSION AROUND 750 MB. RESULT IS A LARGE AREA
OF CLOUDINESS COVERING MOST OF NY STATE. HOWEVER DOWNSLOPING HAS
RESULTED IN SOME CLEARING IN THE HUDSON RIVER AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS.
THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY WITH PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
IN THE VALLEY AND FARTHER EAST. TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
RANGE FROM THE MID 40S AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO THE MID 50S IN THE
HUDSON VALLEY... AND HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW.

UPDATED AT 1030 AM... LOT OF CLOUDS COVERING CENTRAL NY THIS
MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A 500 MB SHORT WAVE AND SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT SOUTHEAST AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THESE CLOUDS HAVE
BEEN BREAKING UP AS THEY DOWNSLOPE INTO THE MID AND LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER VT AND WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOSTLY IN
THE LOWER TO MID 50S WITH SOME 40S OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW.

AS OF 630 AM...STLT PICS SHOW CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE CLOUD BAND OVER THE REGION
WILL SLOWLY BREAK UP TODAY AND ALLOW FOR AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY SKIES
BY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS
THIS MORNING OVER THE SCHOHARIE AND MOHAWK VALLEYS AND THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS. HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

FOR THIS UPDATE HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY RAISED THE HOURLY TEMP GRIDS
BECAUSE CURRENT TEMPS WERE MUCH WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HOLD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY. GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY...WITH SOME AREAS OF MOSTLY CLEAR LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY. BY LATE FRIDAY CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL TRACK WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A STRONG SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO
DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND THEN TRACK NORTHEAST. ANY
SIGNIFICANT PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE LOW WILL MISS THE
ALBANY FORECAST AREA...BUT THERE WILL BE SOME RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL
TROF...AND HAVE FORECAST 30 TO 50 PERCENT POPS DURING THIS PERIOD.

LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. HIGHS SATURDAY
IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES A CHILLY START TO CLOSE THE
WEEKEND..BUT THEN MODERATING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID WEEK BEFORE
THE NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES.  THE WPC GUIDANCE WAS FAVORED IN THE
LONG TERM.  THE ECMWF...GFS...AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT WITH WPC.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...IMPRESSIVE H500 UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
OVER THE ERN CONUS.  SIGNIFICANT OCEANIC CYCLONE LOOKS TO STAY FAR
ENOUGH OFFSHORE FOR MINIMAL IMPACT IN TERMS OF PCPN...BUT IT WILL BE
COLD AND WINDY.  THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT SNOW
SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR FILTERS IN.  ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE LIGHT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO M20S OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...AND U20S TO L30S IN THE VALLEYS.  BY SUNDAY...THE SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS BETWEEN THE OCEAN CYCLONE AND A SFC
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE TN VALLEY.  BRISK N/NW WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH
AND H850 TEMPS OF -4C TO -8C WILL MAY IT FEEL LIKE WINTER! EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE 30S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND U30S TO M40S IN THE
VALLEYS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...FAIR AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTHEAST INTO THE FCST AREA FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC REGION.  A VERY COLD NIGHT IS
EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.  MONDAY...TEMPS CREEP CLOSER TO
NORMAL EARLY NOVEMBER READINGS BUT STILL WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL BY 5
DEGREES OR SO WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO L50S...THOUGH A FEW
U30S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SRN DACKS.  A WARM FRONT STARTS TO APPROACH
FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AND OHIO VALLEY WITH AN INCREASE
IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MON NIGHT.  TEMPS WILL BE A TAD WARMER IN THE
30S.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...A NICE DAY IS EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH A
MILDER AIR MASS BUILDING IN ACROSS THE REGION.  IN THE WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN...H850 TEMPS RISE BACK TO +8C TO +12C.  EXPECT
HIGHS TEMPS TO BE CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WED WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS.  TEMPS SHOULD STILL RUN AT
NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL READINGS FOR THE MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DOMINATE TODAY...AS A SFC TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING.

VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HRS AT KGFL/KALB/KPSF
WITH BKN-OVC CONDITIONS IN THE 6-8 KFT AGL RANGE LOWERING TO 4-6
KFT BY THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.  THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
KPOU WHERE SOME MVFR MIST WILL LINGER FORMA FEW MORE HOURS UNTIL
14Z.  EXPECT WIDESPREAD STRATOCUMULUS IN THE AFTERNOON...AND THEN
START TO DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING WITH JUST SOME SCT CUMULUS
AND SCT-BKN CIRRUS AROUND TONIGHT.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM THIS MORNING...AND THEN INCREASE TO
4-8 KTS FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AT 5 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...ESP AT
NIGHT WHEN VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT. WINDS WILL NE NORTHWEST
AT 5 TO 15 MPH TODAY...AND LIGHT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRODUCES SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

ANY PRECIP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT...AND BASIN
AVERAGE AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW RIVER LEVELS TO HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...








000
FXUS61 KALY 301705
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
105 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE FAIR AND SEASONABLY COOL
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. COLDER AIR WILL
ARRIVE DURING THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG STORM FORMS WELL OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. THE COLDER AIR WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED AT 1 PM... 12Z BUF AND ALB SOUNDINGS BOTH SHOWING A MOIST
LAYER BENEATH AN INVERSION AROUND 750 MB. RESULT IS A LARGE AREA
OF CLOUDINESS COVERING MOST OF NY STATE. HOWEVER DOWNSLOPING HAS
RESULTED IN SOME CLEARING IN THE HUDSON RIVER AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS.
THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY WITH PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
IN THE VALLEY AND FARTHER EAST. TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
RANGE FROM THE MID 40S AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO THE MID 50S IN THE
HUDSON VALLEY... AND HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW.

UPDATED AT 1030 AM... LOT OF CLOUDS COVERING CENTRAL NY THIS
MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A 500 MB SHORT WAVE AND SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT SOUTHEAST AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THESE CLOUDS HAVE
BEEN BREAKING UP AS THEY DOWNSLOPE INTO THE MID AND LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER VT AND WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOSTLY IN
THE LOWER TO MID 50S WITH SOME 40S OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW.

AS OF 630 AM...STLT PICS SHOW CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE CLOUD BAND OVER THE REGION
WILL SLOWLY BREAK UP TODAY AND ALLOW FOR AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY SKIES
BY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS
THIS MORNING OVER THE SCHOHARIE AND MOHAWK VALLEYS AND THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS. HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

FOR THIS UPDATE HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY RAISED THE HOURLY TEMP GRIDS
BECAUSE CURRENT TEMPS WERE MUCH WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HOLD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY. GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY...WITH SOME AREAS OF MOSTLY CLEAR LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY. BY LATE FRIDAY CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL TRACK WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A STRONG SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO
DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND THEN TRACK NORTHEAST. ANY
SIGNIFICANT PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE LOW WILL MISS THE
ALBANY FORECAST AREA...BUT THERE WILL BE SOME RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL
TROF...AND HAVE FORECAST 30 TO 50 PERCENT POPS DURING THIS PERIOD.

LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. HIGHS SATURDAY
IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES A CHILLY START TO CLOSE THE
WEEKEND..BUT THEN MODERATING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID WEEK BEFORE
THE NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES.  THE WPC GUIDANCE WAS FAVORED IN THE
LONG TERM.  THE ECMWF...GFS...AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT WITH WPC.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...IMPRESSIVE H500 UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
OVER THE ERN CONUS.  SIGNIFICANT OCEANIC CYCLONE LOOKS TO STAY FAR
ENOUGH OFFSHORE FOR MINIMAL IMPACT IN TERMS OF PCPN...BUT IT WILL BE
COLD AND WINDY.  THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT SNOW
SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR FILTERS IN.  ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE LIGHT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO M20S OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...AND U20S TO L30S IN THE VALLEYS.  BY SUNDAY...THE SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS BETWEEN THE OCEAN CYCLONE AND A SFC
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE TN VALLEY.  BRISK N/NW WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH
AND H850 TEMPS OF -4C TO -8C WILL MAY IT FEEL LIKE WINTER! EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE 30S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND U30S TO M40S IN THE
VALLEYS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...FAIR AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTHEAST INTO THE FCST AREA FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC REGION.  A VERY COLD NIGHT IS
EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.  MONDAY...TEMPS CREEP CLOSER TO
NORMAL EARLY NOVEMBER READINGS BUT STILL WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL BY 5
DEGREES OR SO WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO L50S...THOUGH A FEW
U30S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SRN DACKS.  A WARM FRONT STARTS TO APPROACH
FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AND OHIO VALLEY WITH AN INCREASE
IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MON NIGHT.  TEMPS WILL BE A TAD WARMER IN THE
30S.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...A NICE DAY IS EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH A
MILDER AIR MASS BUILDING IN ACROSS THE REGION.  IN THE WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN...H850 TEMPS RISE BACK TO +8C TO +12C.  EXPECT
HIGHS TEMPS TO BE CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WED WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS.  TEMPS SHOULD STILL RUN AT
NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL READINGS FOR THE MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DOMINATE TODAY...AS A SFC TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING.

VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HRS AT KGFL/KALB/KPSF
WITH BKN-OVC CONDITIONS IN THE 6-8 KFT AGL RANGE LOWERING TO 4-6
KFT BY THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.  THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
KPOU WHERE SOME MVFR MIST WILL LINGER FORMA FEW MORE HOURS UNTIL
14Z.  EXPECT WIDESPREAD STRATOCUMULUS IN THE AFTERNOON...AND THEN
START TO DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING WITH JUST SOME SCT CUMULUS
AND SCT-BKN CIRRUS AROUND TONIGHT.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM THIS MORNING...AND THEN INCREASE TO
4-8 KTS FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AT 5 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...ESP AT
NIGHT WHEN VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT. WINDS WILL NE NORTHWEST
AT 5 TO 15 MPH TODAY...AND LIGHT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRODUCES SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

ANY PRECIP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT...AND BASIN
AVERAGE AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW RIVER LEVELS TO HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...








000
FXUS61 KOKX 301621
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1221 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY...THEN TRACKS
NORTHEAST TO EAST OF CAPE COD BY SATURDAY EVENING. MEANWHILE A
SECONDARY LOW FORMS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY...THEN
TRACKS NORTHEAST TO THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES BY SUNDAY
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS STORM THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT...THEN MOVES OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT APPROACHING ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATES ON LATEST T/TD TRENDS...AND CLOUDS. PASSAGE OF 700-500
HPA TROUGH AXIS WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED-BROKEN CLOUDS. DOWNSLOPE
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS EXPECTED TO SERVE AS A LIMITING FACTOR.

LATEST HOURLY GUIDANCE IN LINE WITH FORECAST HIGHS. EXPECT HIGHS
TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
A 850-500 HPA SHORTWAVE RIDGE CROSSES THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH
ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE PROMOTING MINIMAL CLOUD COVER AND
DIMINISHING WINDS. AS A RESULT...HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS LOWER OF
MET/MAV/ECS GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES FOR LOWS. NOT
QUITE CERTAIN ENOUGH OF A COMPLETELY CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS TO
GO COLDER AT THIS TIME. LOWS SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL.

A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS NNW FROM COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING OFF
THE VA/NC COAST FRIDAY TOWARDS LONG ISLAND. THIS COUPLED WITH A
PASSING WEAK 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE WARRANTS INCREASING CLOUD COVER
OVER THE ENTIRE REGION AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR -SHRA OVER
MAINLY LONG ISLAND FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR HIGHS FRIDAY...A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 900-875 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGIZES A SURFACE LOW EMERGING OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. MODEL CONSENSUS AND THEIR
RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEANS STRENGTHEN THIS STORM AS IT HEADS
NE...PASSING SE OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. A SURFACE TROUGH FIRST BRINGS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
TO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. AT LEAST CHANCE POPS REMAIN ON SATURDAY
WITH SOME MID LEVEL LIFT...ALTHOUGH MODEL QPF OUTPUT SUGGESTS
THAT COASTAL AREAS WARRANT LIKELY POPS...BEING CLOSER TO THE
STORM CENTER. CHANCES OF RAINFALL THEN DIMINISH THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT AS THE STORM SHIFTS FARTHER OUT TO SEA...WITH DRY WEATHER
BY SUNDAY MORNING.

THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST AN ALL RAIN EVENT. BY THE TIME FREEZING
LEVELS AND WET BULB ZEROES LOWER ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A MIX OF RAIN
AND SNOW...PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE ENDED OR WILL JUST ABOUT TO
END. THIS WOULD BE THE CASE FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1000 FT NORTH
AND WEST OF THE CITY. WITH SUCH LIMITED COVERAGE OF A LOW
PROBABILITY EVENT...HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION OF SNOW FROM THE
GRIDS.

WINDS WILL END UP BEING THE BIGGER STORY...AND WILL BE AT THEIR
STRONGEST FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. COULD
GET CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA AT SOME POINT DURING THIS
PERIOD...SO WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IS
EXPECTED TO BE DRY. HIGHS ON SUNDAY AVERAGING AT LEAST 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...WITH WIND CHILL VALUES AROUND 30 DEGREES FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE MORNING. THE GROWING SEASON THEN PROBABLY ENDS
FOR MORE OF THE ZONES OUTSIDE OF THE CITY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS
AROUND THE FREEZING MARK. TEMPS THEN BEGIN THEIR CLIMB BACK
TOWARDS NORMAL ON MONDAY...BEFORE REACHING NEAR NORMAL ON TUESDAY
WITH A SW FLOW.

NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THEN ARRIVES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH A WARM FRONT PASSAGE FOLLOWED BY THE APPROACH OF A COLD
FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HI PRES BUILDS OVER THE METRO TODAY. LOW PRES BEGINS TO DEVELOP S
OF THE REGION FRI.

VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD.

MAINLY NW WINDS AT OR BELOW 10KT. SOME BACKING TO THE WNW THIS
AFTN...ESPECIALLY S COASTS. DIRECTION VEERS TO THE N OVERNIGHT.


     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS GENERALLY RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC
TODAY...POSSIBLY WAVERING BETWEEN 290 AND 310 MAGNETIC BETWEEN 18Z
AND 23Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS GENERALLY RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC
TODAY.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS GENERALLY RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC
TODAY...POSSIBLY WAVERING BETWEEN 290 AND 310 MAGNETIC BETWEEN
18Z AND 23Z.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS GENERALLY RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC
TODAY.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THU NGT...VFR.
.FRI...CIGS LOWER THRU THE DAY WITH MVFR POSSIBLE LATE.
.FRI NGT-SAT NGT...MVFR OR LOWER. PCPN MAINLY RAIN...BUT SNOW MAY
MIX IN ACROSS THE INTERIOR AT NGT. NE-N WINDS 15-20G25-35KT.
.SUNDAY...VFR. NW WINDS 20-25G30-35KT.
.MONDAY...VFR. WEST WINDS 5-10 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK. A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
THE WATERS AROUND LONG ISLAND WILL RESULT IN WINDS 10 KT OR LESS
THROUGH FRIDAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS IS POSSIBLY OVER THE
FAR EASTERN COASTAL OCEAN WATERS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WHERE NE
FLOW COULD STRENGTHEN TO UP TO 15 KT. AS A RESULT...SUB-SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON ALL MARINE ZONES THROUGH FRIDAY.

SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ON ALL WATERS FROM FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING AS NE FLOW STRENGTHENS...THEN EXPECT
NORTHERLY GALES ON THE OCEAN BY SAT AFTERNOON...AND N-NW GALES ON
ALL WATERS - ESPECIALLY THE OCEAN AND THE ERN SOUND/BAYS SAT NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FROM SUNDAY
NIGHT ON...WITH SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON THE SOUND/HARBOR/BAYS BY MON
MORNING...AND ON THE OCEAN BY MON NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AT MOST A
FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL FRIDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY
ACROSS LONG ISLAND.

RAINFALL FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN UNDER A HALF INCH WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS GENERALLY ACROSS
THE COASTAL AREAS. NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC IMPACT IS EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/PW
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JMC/NV
MARINE...JC/MALOIT/PW
HYDROLOGY...JC/MALOIT








000
FXUS61 KOKX 301621
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1221 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY...THEN TRACKS
NORTHEAST TO EAST OF CAPE COD BY SATURDAY EVENING. MEANWHILE A
SECONDARY LOW FORMS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY...THEN
TRACKS NORTHEAST TO THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES BY SUNDAY
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS STORM THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT...THEN MOVES OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT APPROACHING ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATES ON LATEST T/TD TRENDS...AND CLOUDS. PASSAGE OF 700-500
HPA TROUGH AXIS WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED-BROKEN CLOUDS. DOWNSLOPE
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS EXPECTED TO SERVE AS A LIMITING FACTOR.

LATEST HOURLY GUIDANCE IN LINE WITH FORECAST HIGHS. EXPECT HIGHS
TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
A 850-500 HPA SHORTWAVE RIDGE CROSSES THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH
ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE PROMOTING MINIMAL CLOUD COVER AND
DIMINISHING WINDS. AS A RESULT...HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS LOWER OF
MET/MAV/ECS GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES FOR LOWS. NOT
QUITE CERTAIN ENOUGH OF A COMPLETELY CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS TO
GO COLDER AT THIS TIME. LOWS SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL.

A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS NNW FROM COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING OFF
THE VA/NC COAST FRIDAY TOWARDS LONG ISLAND. THIS COUPLED WITH A
PASSING WEAK 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE WARRANTS INCREASING CLOUD COVER
OVER THE ENTIRE REGION AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR -SHRA OVER
MAINLY LONG ISLAND FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR HIGHS FRIDAY...A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 900-875 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGIZES A SURFACE LOW EMERGING OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. MODEL CONSENSUS AND THEIR
RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEANS STRENGTHEN THIS STORM AS IT HEADS
NE...PASSING SE OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. A SURFACE TROUGH FIRST BRINGS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
TO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. AT LEAST CHANCE POPS REMAIN ON SATURDAY
WITH SOME MID LEVEL LIFT...ALTHOUGH MODEL QPF OUTPUT SUGGESTS
THAT COASTAL AREAS WARRANT LIKELY POPS...BEING CLOSER TO THE
STORM CENTER. CHANCES OF RAINFALL THEN DIMINISH THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT AS THE STORM SHIFTS FARTHER OUT TO SEA...WITH DRY WEATHER
BY SUNDAY MORNING.

THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST AN ALL RAIN EVENT. BY THE TIME FREEZING
LEVELS AND WET BULB ZEROES LOWER ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A MIX OF RAIN
AND SNOW...PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE ENDED OR WILL JUST ABOUT TO
END. THIS WOULD BE THE CASE FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1000 FT NORTH
AND WEST OF THE CITY. WITH SUCH LIMITED COVERAGE OF A LOW
PROBABILITY EVENT...HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION OF SNOW FROM THE
GRIDS.

WINDS WILL END UP BEING THE BIGGER STORY...AND WILL BE AT THEIR
STRONGEST FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. COULD
GET CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA AT SOME POINT DURING THIS
PERIOD...SO WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IS
EXPECTED TO BE DRY. HIGHS ON SUNDAY AVERAGING AT LEAST 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...WITH WIND CHILL VALUES AROUND 30 DEGREES FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE MORNING. THE GROWING SEASON THEN PROBABLY ENDS
FOR MORE OF THE ZONES OUTSIDE OF THE CITY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS
AROUND THE FREEZING MARK. TEMPS THEN BEGIN THEIR CLIMB BACK
TOWARDS NORMAL ON MONDAY...BEFORE REACHING NEAR NORMAL ON TUESDAY
WITH A SW FLOW.

NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THEN ARRIVES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH A WARM FRONT PASSAGE FOLLOWED BY THE APPROACH OF A COLD
FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HI PRES BUILDS OVER THE METRO TODAY. LOW PRES BEGINS TO DEVELOP S
OF THE REGION FRI.

VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD.

MAINLY NW WINDS AT OR BELOW 10KT. SOME BACKING TO THE WNW THIS
AFTN...ESPECIALLY S COASTS. DIRECTION VEERS TO THE N OVERNIGHT.


     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS GENERALLY RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC
TODAY...POSSIBLY WAVERING BETWEEN 290 AND 310 MAGNETIC BETWEEN 18Z
AND 23Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS GENERALLY RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC
TODAY.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS GENERALLY RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC
TODAY...POSSIBLY WAVERING BETWEEN 290 AND 310 MAGNETIC BETWEEN
18Z AND 23Z.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS GENERALLY RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC
TODAY.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THU NGT...VFR.
.FRI...CIGS LOWER THRU THE DAY WITH MVFR POSSIBLE LATE.
.FRI NGT-SAT NGT...MVFR OR LOWER. PCPN MAINLY RAIN...BUT SNOW MAY
MIX IN ACROSS THE INTERIOR AT NGT. NE-N WINDS 15-20G25-35KT.
.SUNDAY...VFR. NW WINDS 20-25G30-35KT.
.MONDAY...VFR. WEST WINDS 5-10 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK. A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
THE WATERS AROUND LONG ISLAND WILL RESULT IN WINDS 10 KT OR LESS
THROUGH FRIDAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS IS POSSIBLY OVER THE
FAR EASTERN COASTAL OCEAN WATERS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WHERE NE
FLOW COULD STRENGTHEN TO UP TO 15 KT. AS A RESULT...SUB-SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON ALL MARINE ZONES THROUGH FRIDAY.

SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ON ALL WATERS FROM FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING AS NE FLOW STRENGTHENS...THEN EXPECT
NORTHERLY GALES ON THE OCEAN BY SAT AFTERNOON...AND N-NW GALES ON
ALL WATERS - ESPECIALLY THE OCEAN AND THE ERN SOUND/BAYS SAT NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FROM SUNDAY
NIGHT ON...WITH SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON THE SOUND/HARBOR/BAYS BY MON
MORNING...AND ON THE OCEAN BY MON NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AT MOST A
FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL FRIDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY
ACROSS LONG ISLAND.

RAINFALL FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN UNDER A HALF INCH WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS GENERALLY ACROSS
THE COASTAL AREAS. NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC IMPACT IS EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/PW
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JMC/NV
MARINE...JC/MALOIT/PW
HYDROLOGY...JC/MALOIT








000
FXUS61 KALY 301452
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1052 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE FAIR AND SEASONABLY COOL
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. COLDER AIR WILL
ARRIVE DURING THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG STORM FORMS WELL OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. THE COLDER AIR WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED AT 1030 AM... LOT OF CLOUDS COVERING CENTRAL NY THIS
MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A 500 MB SHORT WAVE AND SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT SOUTHEAST AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THESE CLOUDS HAVE
BEEN BREAKING UP AS THEY DOWNSLOPE INTO THE MID AND LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER VT AND WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOSTLY IN
THE LOWER TO MID 50S WITH SOME 40S OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW.

AS OF 630 AM...STLT PICS SHOW CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE CLOUD BAND OVER THE REGION
WILL SLOWLY BREAK UP TODAY AND ALLOW FOR AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY SKIES
BY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS
THIS MORNING OVER THE SCHOHARIE AND MOHAWK VALLEYS AND THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS. HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

FOR THIS UPDATE HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY RAISED THE HOURLY TEMP GRIDS
BECAUSE CURRENT TEMPS WERE MUCH WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HOLD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY. GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY...WITH SOME AREAS OF MOSTLY CLEAR LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY. BY LATE FRIDAY CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL TRACK WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A STRONG SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO
DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND THEN TRACK NORTHEAST. ANY
SIGNIFICANT PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE LOW WILL MISS THE
ALBANY FORECAST AREA...BUT THERE WILL BE SOME RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL
TROF...AND HAVE FORECAST 30 TO 50 PERCENT POPS DURING THIS PERIOD.

LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. HIGHS SATURDAY
IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES A CHILLY START TO CLOSE THE
WEEKEND..BUT THEN MODERATING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID WEEK BEFORE
THE NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES.  THE WPC GUIDANCE WAS FAVORED IN THE
LONG TERM.  THE ECMWF...GFS...AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT WITH WPC.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...IMPRESSIVE H500 UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
OVER THE ERN CONUS.  SIGNIFICANT OCEANIC CYCLONE LOOKS TO STAY FAR
ENOUGH OFFSHORE FOR MINIMAL IMPACT IN TERMS OF PCPN...BUT IT WILL BE
COLD AND WINDY.  THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT SNOW
SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR FILTERS IN.  ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE LIGHT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO M20S OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...AND U20S TO L30S IN THE VALLEYS.  BY SUNDAY...THE SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS BETWEEN THE OCEAN CYCLONE AND A SFC
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE TN VALLEY.  BRISK N/NW WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH
AND H850 TEMPS OF -4C TO -8C WILL MAY IT FEEL LIKE WINTER! EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE 30S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND U30S TO M40S IN THE
VALLEYS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...FAIR AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTHEAST INTO THE FCST AREA FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC REGION.  A VERY COLD NIGHT IS
EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.  MONDAY...TEMPS CREEP CLOSER TO
NORMAL EARLY NOVEMBER READINGS BUT STILL WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL BY 5
DEGREES OR SO WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO L50S...THOUGH A FEW
U30S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SRN DACKS.  A WARM FRONT STARTS TO APPROACH
FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AND OHIO VALLEY WITH AN INCREASE
IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MON NIGHT.  TEMPS WILL BE A TAD WARMER IN THE
30S.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...A NICE DAY IS EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH A
MILDER AIR MASS BUILDING IN ACROSS THE REGION.  IN THE WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN...H850 TEMPS RISE BACK TO +8C TO +12C.  EXPECT
HIGHS TEMPS TO BE CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WED WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS.  TEMPS SHOULD STILL RUN AT
NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL READINGS FOR THE MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DOMINATE TODAY...AS A SFC TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING.

VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HRS AT KGFL/KALB/KPSF
WITH BKN-OVC CONDITIONS IN THE 6-8 KFT AGL RANGE LOWERING TO 4-6
KFT BY THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.  THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
KPOU WHERE SOME MVFR MIST WILL LINGER FORMA FEW MORE HOURS UNTIL
14Z.  EXPECT WIDESPREAD STRATOCUMULUS IN THE AFTERNOON...AND THEN
START TO DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING WITH JUST SOME SCT CUMULUS
AND SCT-BKN CIRRUS AROUND TONIGHT.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM THIS MORNING...AND THEN INCREASE TO
4-8 KTS FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AT 5 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...ESP AT
NIGHT WHEN VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT. WINDS WILL NE NORTHWEST
AT 5 TO 15 MPH TODAY...AND LIGHT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRODUCES SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

ANY PRECIP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT...AND BASIN
AVERAGE AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW RIVER LEVELS TO HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...








000
FXUS61 KBOX 301355
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
955 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. A COASTAL STORM WILL LIKELY DELIVER A
GLANCING BLOW TO THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...BUT THE
OPPORTUNITY FOR A HIGHER IMPACT STILL EXISTS. MAINLY DRY WEATHER
FOLLOWS WITH A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND BY NEXT TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE...MADE SOME CHANGES TO THE SKY FORECAST BASED ON THE
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY.  OTHERWISE...FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

FOR TODAY...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AS WEAK HIGH PRES APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY AS H5 SHORT WAVE CROSSES THE
REGION...PUSHING OFFSHORE BY MIDDAY. H85 TEMPS DO FALL DURING THE
DAY...THOUGH LOOKS LIKE THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR REMAINS TO THE N.
TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLE FOR LATE OCTOBER...TOPPING OFF IN THE
50S. EXPECT LIGHT W-NW WINDS WITH A LIGHT PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...
EXPECT THE WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGE TO BUILD E ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. LIGHT N WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE WHICH WILL VEER TO
NE AFTER MIDNIGHT. MAY SEE SOME MORE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP IN THE
NORMALLY PRONE VALLEY AREAS.

NOTING LOW PRES OVER THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AS A DIGGING H5
SHORT WAVE DIVES SE. SW FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE...SO COULD
SEE SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WORK INTO WESTERN AREAS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WITH THE COLDER AIR WORKING IN ALONG WITH A GENERAL
LIGHT WIND IN PLACE...EXPECT LOWS FALLING BACK TO THE 30S FOR MOST
AREAS...RANGING TO LOWER-MID 40S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WILL
NEED TO MONITOR FOR FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES MAY BE NECESSARY FOR
S/E COASTAL MA AND RI.

FRIDAY...
MAJOR DIGGING H5 LONG WAVE TROUGH/CUTOFF LOW TAKES SHAPE ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...WHICH SETS UP AN
INCREASING SW FLOW ALOFT ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. HOWEVER...AT
THE SURFACE...GENERAL LIGHT FLOW CONTINUES THOUGH E-NE WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO FRESHEN DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE S COAST. BIG
QUESTION AT THIS POINT...WHERE LOW PRES DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLC
OR SE U.S. COAST FRI AFTERNOON.

EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE WITH THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL ONSHORE
FLOW IN PLACE. THIS WILL HOLD TEMPS BACK. HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH
THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SW NH/W MA...RANGING TO
THE LOWER-MID 50S ELSEWHERE.

AT THIS POINT...NOT EXPECTING ORGANIZED PRECIP DURING THE DAY ON
FRIDAY AS BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE REMAINS S OF THE REGION.
HOWEVER...COULD SEE SOME OCEAN INDUCED LIGHT SPRINKLES OR EVEN
SOME COASTAL DRIZZLE. DID NOT MENTION THIS FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* GLANCING BLOW MOST LIKELY SAT/EARLY SUNDAY...BUT GREATER IMPACT
  STILL POSSIBLE
* BIGGEST CONCERN IS STRONG WINDS THIS WEEKEND ESPECIALLY CAPE COD
* ACCUMULATING SNOW IS STILL POSSIBLE...BUT A LOW PROBABILITY
* MUCH MILDER WEATHER RETURNS BY NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY

OVERVIEW...30/00Z GUIDANCE HAD COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
REGARDING THEIR HANDLING OF A SIGNIFICANT COASTAL STORM THIS
WEEKEND. THERE ARE A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS THAT SUGGEST A CLOSER
TRACK TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND REMAINS POSSIBLE...BUT NOT VERY
LIKELY. THE PREDOMINANT SIGNAL IS FOR A TRACK REMAINING SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. WILL FAVOR A CONSENSUS BLEND TO
SMOOTH OVER AS MANY MINOR DIFFERENCES AS POSSIBLE.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS REMAINS MODERATE FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD. THE BIGGEST CONCERN REMAIN POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO PERHAPS
DAMAGING WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET. THERE
ARE TWO MAIN SHORTWAVES INVOLVED IN THIS STORM/S FORMATION.
INITIALLY...MOST MODELS FORM AN ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OR
EVEN TWO CENTERS BEFORE CONSOLIDATING INTO A SINGLE PRIMARY STORM.
CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS HAPPENS TOO LATE FOR A
SIGNIFICANT RAIN/SNOW EVENT IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

PRECIPITATION TYPE AND TIMING...A LOT OF THIS WILL DEPEND ON HOW
FAR WEST THE MAIN PRECIPITATION SHIELD REACHES. MOST OF THE
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE...WHICH
WOULD ALSO SUGGEST A RATHER SHARP WESTERN EDGE TO THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD. MINOR WOBBLES IN THE TRACK...COULD HAVE A
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON WHERE THIS EDGE TO THE PRECIPITATION
ESTABLISHES ITSELF.

INITIALLY...ALL PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN OR JUST
SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY. IN FACT...MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL
BE OVER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND...WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN
SECTIONS IF THE CURRENT TRACK VERIFIES. IF THIS TRACK SHIFTS WEST
AND WE END UP GETTING INTO HEAVIER PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SUNDAY...DYNAMIC COOLING COULD RESULT IN SOME SNOW ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN...BASED ON THE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TRACK...ACCUMULATING
SNOW IS A RATHER LOW PROBABILITY. REGARDLESS...MOST PRECIPITATION
SHOULD HAVE EXITED OUR REGION BY MID MORNING SUNDAY.

STRONG WINDS...
STRONG WINDS ARE THE ONE THING WE ARE FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT WILL
DEVELOP. EXCELLENT MIXING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS STORM SHOULD
RESULT IN NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH DEVELOPING
LATE SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AS MIXING INCREASES. ACROSS
CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THIS STORM...WE
MAY SEE A PERIOD OF 50 TO 60 MPH WIND GUSTS. WIND ADVISORIES MAY
BE NEEDED FOR MUCH OF THE REGION AND PERHAPS HIGH WIND
WATCHES/WARNINGS FOR THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET. GIVEN MANY TREES
STILL HAVE AT LEAST SOME LEAVES ON THEM...THE RISK FOR TREE DAMAGE
AND ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES WILL BE ENHANCED.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE REGION AND WE ENTER AN
AREA OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND EXPECTED
WITH SOME OF THE COASTAL PLAIN POSSIBLY SEEING HIGHS BREAK 60 BY
TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. MAINLY DRY WEATHER OVER THIS TIME...BUT A
SPOT SHOWER OR TWO IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY TOWARD WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH
TONIGHT...THEN MODERATE CONFIDENCE FRIDAY.

TODAY...VFR. SCT-BKN CLOUDS 4-5KFT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...VFR. INCREASING CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT. MAY SEE LOCAL
MVFR-IFR ACROSS SW NH INTO NW MA LATE. SHALLOW PATCHY GROUND FOG
POSSIBLE AT PRONE TERMINALS.

FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. WINDS SHIFT TO E-NE DURING DAY...INCREASING
ALONG COAST TO 10-15 KT WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 KT LATE IN DAY.
MAY SEE MVFR CIGS DEVELOP ALONG E COAST TERMINALS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WIDELY SCT SHOWERS ALONG S COAST POSSIBLE LATE.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR TO START BUT ONSHORE FLOW
MAY RESULT IN MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING. A SPOT SHOWER OR TWO POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE. MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS VFR TO
BE MIXED AT TIMES WITH MVFR LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
LOWER CONDITIONS MOST LIKELY ALONG THE COAST WITH RAIN OR
SCATTERED SHOWERS.

LOW PROBABILITY FOR A CHANGE TO SNOW AT THE END. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE SUNDAY...BUT NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS
OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS EXPECTED. STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS CAPE COD AND
NANTUCKET WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS POSSIBLE.

MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS E
AND S OF CAPE COD THIS MORNING. EXPECTING WINDS AND SEAS BELOW
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

TONIGHT...LIGHT NE WINDS AND SEAS UP TO 3 FT.

FRIDAY...WINDS BECOME E-NE BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA. SEAS SLOWLY INCREASE TO 3 FT ON SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THOUGH MONDAY...

***STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS AND 20 FOOT SEAS POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY
 INTO SUNDAY ACROSS THE OPEN ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF
 MASSACHUSETTS***

FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. INCREASING NE WINDS. GUSTS UP TO
30 KT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 5 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. HIGH IMPACT MARINE
EVENT EXPECTED. WHILE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON THE EXACT TRACK AND
TIMING OF A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE...HIGH CONFIDENCE GALE FORCE
NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS ACROSS MOST WATERS LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
IN FACT...MODERATE RISK FOR A PERIOD OF STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS
WITH 20 FOOT SEAS ACROSS THE OPEN ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF
MASSACHUSETTS. EXACT WIND SPEEDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS WILL DEPEND UPON
THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY OF COASTAL LOW PRESSURE. A MARINE
WEATHER STATEMENT WAS ISSUED TO ADDRESS THESE CONCERNS.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. NORTHWEST 25-30 KT WIND GUSTS AND
SEAS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE MUCH OF THE DAY WITH GOOD MIXING IN THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES ARE NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE LATE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY. NONETHELESS...THERE IS AT LEAST A LOW PROBABILITY FOR
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING/EROSION ALONG THE EASTERN MA COAST AS WELL
AS PORTIONS OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. THE CONCERN IS FOR THE
EARLY MORNING HIGH TIDE SUNDAY. IF WE END UP REALIZING 20 FOOT
SEAS OVER THE OPEN OCEAN AND NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50
KNOTS...THERE COULD BE SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND EROSION.
SOME OF THE HOT SPOTS WOULD BE SALISBURY AND PLUM ISLAND...
HULL...SCITUATE AND PERHAPS SANDWICH HARBOR AND NANTUCKET HARBOR.
AGAIN...IT WILL DEPEND ON EXACT WIND SPEEDS/WAVE HEIGHTS OUT OVER
THE OCEAN DURING THE EARLY MORNING SUNDAY HIGH TIDE CYCLE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/EVT
NEAR TERM...BELK/RLG/EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...FRANK/EVT
MARINE...FRANK/EVT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KOKX 301337
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
937 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY...THEN TRACKS
NORTHEAST TO EAST OF CAPE COD BY SATURDAY EVENING. MEANWHILE A
SECONDARY LOW FORMS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY...THEN
TRACKS NORTHEAST TO THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES BY SUNDAY
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS STORM THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT...THEN MOVES OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT APPROACHING ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATES ON LATEST T/TD RENDS...AND CLOUDS. EARLY MORNING FOG HAS
BURNED OFF. PASSAGE OF 700-500 HPA TROUGH AXIS WILL ONLY PRODUCE
SCATTERED CLOUDS AT AROUND 10KT. DOWNSLOPE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
SERVES AS A LIMITING FACTOR.

LATEST HOURLY GUIDANCE IN LINE WITH FORECAST HIGHS. EXPECT HIGHS
TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
A 850-500 HPA SHORTWAVE RIDGE CROSSES THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH
ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE PROMOTING MINIMAL CLOUD COVER AND
DIMINISHING WINDS. AS A RESULT...HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS LOWER OF
MET/MAV/ECS GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES FOR LOWS. NOT
QUITE CERTAIN ENOUGH OF A COMPLETELY CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS TO
GO COLDER AT THIS TIME. LOWS SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL.

A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS NNW FROM COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING OFF
THE VA/NC COAST FRIDAY TOWARDS LONG ISLAND. THIS COUPLED WITH A
PASSING WEAK 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE WARRANTS INCREASING CLOUD COVER
OVER THE ENTIRE REGION AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR -SHRA OVER
MAINLY LONG ISLAND FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR HIGHS FRIDAY...A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 900-875 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGIZES A SURFACE LOW EMERGING OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. MODEL CONSENSUS AND THEIR
RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEANS STRENGTHEN THIS STORM AS IT HEADS
NE...PASSING SE OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. A SURFACE TROUGH FIRST BRINGS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
TO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. AT LEAST CHANCE POPS REMAIN ON SATURDAY
WITH SOME MID LEVEL LIFT...ALTHOUGH MODEL QPF OUTPUT SUGGESTS
THAT COASTAL AREAS WARRANT LIKELY POPS...BEING CLOSER TO THE
STORM CENTER. CHANCES OF RAINFALL THEN DIMINISH THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT AS THE STORM SHIFTS FARTHER OUT TO SEA...WITH DRY WEATHER
BY SUNDAY MORNING.

THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST AN ALL RAIN EVENT. BY THE TIME FREEZING
LEVELS AND WET BULB ZEROES LOWER ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A MIX OF RAIN
AND SNOW...PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE ENDED OR WILL JUST ABOUT TO
END. THIS WOULD BE THE CASE FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1000 FT NORTH
AND WEST OF THE CITY. WITH SUCH LIMITED COVERAGE OF A LOW
PROBABILITY EVENT...HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION OF SNOW FROM THE
GRIDS.

WINDS WILL END UP BEING THE BIGGER STORY...AND WILL BE AT THEIR
STRONGEST FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. COULD
GET CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA AT SOME POINT DURING THIS
PERIOD...SO WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IS
EXPECTED TO BE DRY. HIGHS ON SUNDAY AVERAGING AT LEAST 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...WITH WIND CHILL VALUES AROUND 30 DEGREES FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE MORNING. THE GROWING SEASON THEN PROBABLY ENDS
FOR MORE OF THE ZONES OUTSIDE OF THE CITY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS
AROUND THE FREEZING MARK. TEMPS THEN BEGIN THEIR CLIMB BACK
TOWARDS NORMAL ON MONDAY...BEFORE REACHING NEAR NORMAL ON TUESDAY
WITH A SW FLOW.

NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THEN ARRIVES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH A WARM FRONT PASSAGE FOLLOWED BY THE APPROACH OF A COLD
FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HI PRES BUILDS OVER THE METRO TODAY. LOW PRES BEGINS TO DEVELOP S
OF THE REGION FRI.

VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD.

MAINLY NW WINDS AT OR BELOW 10KT. SOME BACKING TO THE WNW THIS
AFTN...ESPECIALLY S COASTS. DIRECTION VEERS TO THE N OVERNIGHT.


     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS GENERALLY RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC
TODAY...POSSIBLY WAVERING BETWEEN 290 AND 310 MAGNETIC BETWEEN 18Z
AND 23Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS GENERALLY RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC
TODAY.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS GENERALLY RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC
TODAY...POSSIBLY WAVERING BETWEEN 290 AND 310 MAGNETIC BETWEEN
18Z AND 23Z.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS GENERALLY RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC
TODAY.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THU NGT...VFR.
.FRI...CIGS LOWER THRU THE DAY WITH MVFR POSSIBLE LATE.
.FRI NGT-SAT NGT...MVFR OR LOWER. PCPN MAINLY RAIN...BUT SNOW MAY
MIX IN ACROSS THE INTERIOR AT NGT. NE-N WINDS 15-20G25-35KT.
.SUNDAY...VFR. NW WINDS 20-25G30-35KT.
.MONDAY...VFR. WEST WINDS 5-10 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK. A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
THE WATERS AROUND LONG ISLAND WILL RESULT IN WINDS 10 KT OR LESS
THROUGH FRIDAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS IS POSSIBLY OVER THE
FAR EASTERN COASTAL OCEAN WATERS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WHERE NE
FLOW COULD STRENGTHEN TO UP TO 15 KT. AS A RESULT...SUB-SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON ALL MARINE ZONES THROUGH FRIDAY.

SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ON ALL WATERS FROM FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING AS NE FLOW STRENGTHENS...THEN EXPECT
NORTHERLY GALES ON THE OCEAN BY SAT AFTERNOON...AND N-NW GALES ON
ALL WATERS - ESPECIALLY THE OCEAN AND THE ERN SOUND/BAYS SAT NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FROM SUNDAY
NIGHT ON...WITH SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON THE SOUND/HARBOR/BAYS BY MON
MORNING...AND ON THE OCEAN BY MON NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AT MOST A
FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL FRIDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY
ACROSS LONG ISLAND.

RAINFALL FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN UNDER A HALF INCH WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS GENERALLY ACROSS
THE COASTAL AREAS. NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC IMPACT IS EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/PW
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JMC/NV
MARINE...JC/MALOIT/PW
HYDROLOGY...JC/MALOIT










000
FXUS61 KBOX 301146
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
746 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. A COASTAL STORM WILL LIKELY DELIVER A
GLANCING BLOW TO THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...BUT THE
OPPORTUNITY FOR A HIGHER IMPACT STILL EXISTS. MAINLY DRY WEATHER
FOLLOWS WITH A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND BY NEXT TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
745 AM UPDATE...

JUST MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. PATCHY FOG SHOULD
DISSIPATE QUICKER THAN WEDNESDAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

FOR TODAY...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AS WEAK HIGH PRES APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY AS H5 SHORT WAVE CROSSES THE
REGION...PUSHING OFFSHORE BY MIDDAY. H85 TEMPS DO FALL DURING THE
DAY...THOUGH LOOKS LIKE THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR REMAINS TO THE N.
TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLE FOR LATE OCTOBER...TOPPING OFF IN THE
50S. EXPECT LIGHT W-NW WINDS WITH A LIGHT PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...
EXPECT THE WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGE TO BUILD E ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. LIGHT N WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE WHICH WILL VEER TO
NE AFTER MIDNIGHT. MAY SEE SOME MORE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP IN THE
NORMALLY PRONE VALLEY AREAS.

NOTING LOW PRES OVER THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AS A DIGGING H5
SHORT WAVE DIVES SE. SW FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE...SO COULD
SEE SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WORK INTO WESTERN AREAS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WITH THE COLDER AIR WORKING IN ALONG WITH A GENERAL
LIGHT WIND IN PLACE...EXPECT LOWS FALLING BACK TO THE 30S FOR MOST
AREAS...RANGING TO LOWER-MID 40S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WILL
NEED TO MONITOR FOR FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES MAY BE NECESSARY FOR
S/E COASTAL MA AND RI.

FRIDAY...
MAJOR DIGGING H5 LONG WAVE TROUGH/CUTOFF LOW TAKES SHAPE ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...WHICH SETS UP AN
INCREASING SW FLOW ALOFT ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. HOWEVER...AT
THE SURFACE...GENERAL LIGHT FLOW CONTINUES THOUGH E-NE WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO FRESHEN DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE S COAST. BIG
QUESTION AT THIS POINT...WHERE LOW PRES DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLC
OR SE U.S. COAST FRI AFTERNOON.

EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE WITH THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL ONSHORE
FLOW IN PLACE. THIS WILL HOLD TEMPS BACK. HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH
THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SW NH/W MA...RANGING TO
THE LOWER-MID 50S ELSEWHERE.

AT THIS POINT...NOT EXPECTING ORGANIZED PRECIP DURING THE DAY ON
FRIDAY AS BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE REMAINS S OF THE REGION.
HOWEVER...COULD SEE SOME OCEAN INDUCED LIGHT SPRINKLES OR EVEN
SOME COASTAL DRIZZLE. DID NOT MENTION THIS FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* GLANCING BLOW MOST LIKELY SAT/EARLY SUNDAY...BUT GREATER IMPACT
  STILL POSSIBLE
* BIGGEST CONCERN IS STRONG WINDS THIS WEEKEND ESPECIALLY CAPE COD
* ACCUMULATING SNOW IS STILL POSSIBLE...BUT A LOW PROBABILITY
* MUCH MILDER WEATHER RETURNS BY NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY

OVERVIEW...30/00Z GUIDANCE HAD COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
REGARDING THEIR HANDLING OF A SIGNIFICANT COASTAL STORM THIS
WEEKEND. THERE ARE A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS THAT SUGGEST A CLOSER
TRACK TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND REMAINS POSSIBLE...BUT NOT VERY
LIKELY. THE PREDOMINANT SIGNAL IS FOR A TRACK REMAINING SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. WILL FAVOR A CONSENSUS BLEND TO
SMOOTH OVER AS MANY MINOR DIFFERENCES AS POSSIBLE.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS REMAINS MODERATE FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD. THE BIGGEST CONCERN REMAIN POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO PERHAPS
DAMAGING WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET. THERE
ARE TWO MAIN SHORTWAVES INVOLVED IN THIS STORM/S FORMATION.
INITIALLY...MOST MODELS FORM AN ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OR
EVEN TWO CENTERS BEFORE CONSOLIDATING INTO A SINGLE PRIMARY STORM.
CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS HAPPENS TOO LATE FOR A
SIGNIFICANT RAIN/SNOW EVENT IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

PRECIPITATION TYPE AND TIMING...A LOT OF THIS WILL DEPEND ON HOW
FAR WEST THE MAIN PRECIPITATION SHIELD REACHES. MOST OF THE
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE...WHICH
WOULD ALSO SUGGEST A RATHER SHARP WESTERN EDGE TO THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD. MINOR WOBBLES IN THE TRACK...COULD HAVE A
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON WHERE THIS EDGE TO THE PRECIPITATION
ESTABLISHES ITSELF.

INITIALLY...ALL PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN OR JUST
SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY. IN FACT...MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL
BE OVER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND...WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN
SECTIONS IF THE CURRENT TRACK VERIFIES. IF THIS TRACK SHIFTS WEST
AND WE END UP GETTING INTO HEAVIER PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SUNDAY...DYNAMIC COOLING COULD RESULT IN SOME SNOW ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN...BASED ON THE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TRACK...ACCUMULATING
SNOW IS A RATHER LOW PROBABILITY. REGARDLESS...MOST PRECIPITATION
SHOULD HAVE EXITED OUR REGION BY MID MORNING SUNDAY.

STRONG WINDS...
STRONG WINDS ARE THE ONE THING WE ARE FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT WILL
DEVELOP. EXCELLENT MIXING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS STORM SHOULD
RESULT IN NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH DEVELOPING
LATE SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AS MIXING INCREASES. ACROSS
CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THIS STORM...WE
MAY SEE A PERIOD OF 50 TO 60 MPH WIND GUSTS. WIND ADVISORIES MAY
BE NEEDED FOR MUCH OF THE REGION AND PERHAPS HIGH WIND
WATCHES/WARNINGS FOR THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET. GIVEN MANY TREES
STILL HAVE AT LEAST SOME LEAVES ON THEM...THE RISK FOR TREE DAMAGE
AND ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES WILL BE ENHANCED.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE REGION AND WE ENTER AN
AREA OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND EXPECTED
WITH SOME OF THE COASTAL PLAIN POSSIBLY SEEING HIGHS BREAK 60 BY
TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. MAINLY DRY WEATHER OVER THIS TIME...BUT A
SPOT SHOWER OR TWO IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY TOWARD WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH
TONIGHT...THEN MODERATE CONFIDENCE FRIDAY.

TODAY...MVFR-IFR VSBYS IMPROVE BY 13Z ACROSS CT VALLEY...
OTHERWISE VFR. SCT-BKN CLOUDS 4-5KFT FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...VFR. INCREASING CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT. MAY SEE LOCAL
MVFR-IFR ACROSS SW NH INTO NW MA LATE. SHALLOW PATCHY GROUND FOG
POSSIBLE AT PRONE TERMINALS.

FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. WINDS SHIFT TO E-NE DURING DAY...INCREASING
ALONG COAST TO 10-15 KT WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 KT LATE IN DAY.
MAY SEE MVFR CIGS DEVELOP ALONG E COAST TERMINALS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WIDELY SCT SHOWERS ALONG S COAST POSSIBLE LATE.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR TO START BUT ONSHORE FLOW
MAY RESULT IN MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING. A SPOT SHOWER OR TWO POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE. MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS VFR TO
BE MIXED AT TIMES WITH MVFR LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
LOWER CONDITIONS MOST LIKELY ALONG THE COAST WITH RAIN OR
SCATTERED SHOWERS.

LOW PROBABILITY FOR A CHANGE TO SNOW AT THE END. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE SUNDAY...BUT NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS
OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS EXPECTED. STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS CAPE COD AND
NANTUCKET WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS POSSIBLE.

MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS E
AND S OF CAPE COD THIS MORNING. EXPECTING WINDS AND SEAS BELOW
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

TONIGHT...LIGHT NE WINDS AND SEAS UP TO 3 FT.

FRIDAY...WINDS BECOME E-NE BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA. SEAS SLOWLY INCREASE TO 3 FT ON SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THOUGH MONDAY...

***STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS AND 20 FOOT SEAS POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY
 INTO SUNDAY ACROSS THE OPEN ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF
 MASSACHUSETTS***

FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. INCREASING NE WINDS. GUSTS UP TO
30 KT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 5 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. HIGH IMPACT MARINE
EVENT EXPECTED. WHILE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON THE EXACT TRACK AND
TIMING OF A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE...HIGH CONFIDENCE GALE FORCE
NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS ACROSS MOST WATERS LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
IN FACT...MODERATE RISK FOR A PERIOD OF STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS
WITH 20 FOOT SEAS ACROSS THE OPEN ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF
MASSACHUSETTS. EXACT WIND SPEEDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS WILL DEPEND UPON
THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY OF COASTAL LOW PRESSURE. A MARINE
WEATHER STATEMENT WAS ISSUED TO ADDRESS THESE CONCERNS.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. NORTHWEST 25-30 KT WIND GUSTS AND
SEAS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE MUCH OF THE DAY WITH GOOD MIXING IN THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES ARE NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE LATE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY. NONETHELESS...THERE IS AT LEAST A LOW PROBABILITY FOR
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING/EROSION ALONG THE EASTERN MA COAST AS WELL
AS PORTIONS OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. THE CONCERN IS FOR THE
EARLY MORNING HIGH TIDE SUNDAY. IF WE END UP REALIZING 20 FOOT
SEAS OVER THE OPEN OCEAN AND NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50
KNOTS...THERE COULD BE SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND EROSION.
SOME OF THE HOT SPOTS WOULD BE SALISBURY AND PLUM ISLAND...
HULL...SCITUATE AND PERHAPS SANDWICH HARBOR AND NANTUCKET HARBOR.
AGAIN...IT WILL DEPEND ON EXACT WIND SPEEDS/WAVE HEIGHTS OUT OVER
THE OCEAN DURING THE EARLY MORNING SUNDAY HIGH TIDE CYCLE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/EVT
NEAR TERM...BELK/EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/EVT
MARINE...BELK/EVT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...STAFF




000
FXUS61 KOKX 301145
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
745 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY. ..THEN TRACKS
NORTHEAST TO EAST OF CAPE COD BY SATURDAY EVENING. MEANWHILE A
SECONDARY LOW FORMS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY...THEN
TRACKS NORTHEAST TO THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES BY SUNDAY
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS STORM THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT...THEN MOVES OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT APPROACHING ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MADE MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. EXCEPTION IS THE TEMPERATURE AT
FOK...WHICH HAS FALLEN QUITE A BIT MORE THAN EXPECTED. OVERALL
THOUGH...THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

PATCHY FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO
THE W/N OF NYC METRO...IS APPEARING TO HAVE STARTED TO DISSIPATE
AND AS OF NOW...LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK TO BECOME AT MOST ISOLATED IN
NATURE BY 11Z...SO AT THIS TIME DO NOT PLAN ON RE-ISSUING SPS FOR
LOCALLY DENSE FOG AT 11Z.

OTHERWISE...PASSAGE OF 700-500 HPA TROUGH AXIS TODAY WILL ONLY
PRODUCE SOME SCT CLOUDS AS AROUND 10KT OR DOWNSLOPE BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW SERVES AS A LIMITING FACTOR.

FOR HIGHS TODAY USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 900-875 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
A 850-500 HPA SHORTWAVE RIDGE CROSSES THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH
ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE PROMOTING MINIMAL CLOUD COVER AND
DIMINISHING WINDS. AS A RESULT...HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS LOWER OF
MET/MAV/ECS GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES FOR LOWS. NOT
QUITE CERTAIN ENOUGH OF A COMPLETELY CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS TO
GO COLDER AT THIS TIME. LOWS SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL.

A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS NNW FROM COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING OFF
THE VA/NC COAST FRIDAY TOWARDS LONG ISLAND. THIS COUPLED WITH A
PASSING WEAK 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE WARRANTS INCREASING CLOUD COVER
OVER THE ENTIRE REGION AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR -SHRA OVER
MAINLY LONG ISLAND FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR HIGHS FRIDAY...A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 900-875 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGIZES A SURFACE LOW EMERGING OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. MODEL CONSENSUS AND THEIR
RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEANS STRENGTHEN THIS STORM AS IT HEADS
NE...PASSING SE OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. A SURFACE TROUGH FIRST BRINGS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
TO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. AT LEAST CHANCE POPS REMAIN ON SATURDAY
WITH SOME MID LEVEL LIFT...ALTHOUGH MODEL QPF OUTPUT SUGGESTS
THAT COASTAL AREAS WARRANT LIKELY POPS...BEING CLOSER TO THE
STORM CENTER. CHANCES OF RAINFALL THEN DIMINISH THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT AS THE STORM SHIFTS FARTHER OUT TO SEA...WITH DRY WEATHER
BY SUNDAY MORNING.

THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST AN ALL RAIN EVENT. BY THE TIME FREEZING
LEVELS AND WET BULB ZEROES LOWER ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A MIX OF RAIN
AND SNOW...PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE ENDED OR WILL JUST ABOUT TO
END. THIS WOULD BE THE CASE FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1000 FT NORTH
AND WEST OF THE CITY. WITH SUCH LIMITED COVERAGE OF A LOW
PROBABILITY EVENT...HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION OF SNOW FROM THE
GRIDS.

WINDS WILL END UP BEING THE BIGGER STORY...AND WILL BE AT THEIR
STRONGEST FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. COULD
GET CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA AT SOME POINT DURING THIS
PERIOD...SO WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IS
EXPECTED TO BE DRY. HIGHS ON SUNDAY AVERAGING AT LEAST 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...WITH WIND CHILL VALUES AROUND 30 DEGREES FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE MORNING. THE GROWING SEASON THEN PROBABLY ENDS
FOR MORE OF THE ZONES OUTSIDE OF THE CITY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS
AROUND THE FREEZING MARK. TEMPS THEN BEGIN THEIR CLIMB BACK
TOWARDS NORMAL ON MONDAY...BEFORE REACHING NEAR NORMAL ON TUESDAY
WITH A SW FLOW.

NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THEN ARRIVES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH A WARM FRONT PASSAGE FOLLOWED BY THE APPROACH OF A COLD
FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HI PRES BUILDS OVER THE METRO TODAY. LOW PRES BEGINS TO DEVELOP S
OF THE REGION FRI.

VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR DISSIPATING FG THIS MRNG.

MAINLY NW WINDS AT OR BELOW 10KT. SOME BACKING TO THE WNW THIS
AFTN...ESPECIALLY S COASTS. DIRECTION VEERS TO THE N OVERNIGHT.


     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SOME VARIABILITY IN WIND DIRECTION CAN BE
EXPECTED THRU 14Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: SOME VARIABILITY IN WIND DIRECTION CAN BE
EXPECTED THRU 14Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: SOME VARIABILITY IN WIND DIRECTION CAN BE
EXPECTED THRU 14Z.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: SOME VARIABILITY IN WIND DIRECTION CAN BE
EXPECTED THRU 14Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.


.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THU NGT...VFR.
.FRI...CIGS LOWER THRU THE DAY WITH MVFR POSSIBLE LATE.
.FRI NGT-SAT NGT...MVFR OR LOWER. PCPN MAINLY RAIN...BUT SNOW MAY
MIX IN ACROSS THE INTERIOR AT NGT. NE-N WINDS 15-20G25-35KT.
.SUNDAY...VFR. NW WINDS 15-20G25-30KT.
.MONDAY...VFR. WEST WINDS 5-10 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
MADE MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS AROUND LONG ISLAND
WILL RESULT IN WINDS 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH FRIDAY. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION TO THIS IS POSSIBLY OVER THE FAR EASTERN COASTAL OCEAN
WATERS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WHERE NE FLOW COULD STRENGTHEN TO UP
TO 15 KT. AS A RESULT...SUB-SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON
ALL MARINE ZONES THROUGH FRIDAY.

SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ON ALL WATERS FROM FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING AS NE FLOW STRENGTHENS...THEN EXPECT
NORTHERLY GALES ON THE OCEAN BY SAT AFTERNOON...AND N-NW GALES ON
ALL WATERS - ESPECIALLY THE OCEAN AND THE ERN SOUND/BAYS SAT NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FROM SUNDAY
NIGHT ON...WITH SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON THE SOUND/HARBOR/BAYS BY MON
MORNING...AND ON THE OCEAN BY MON NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AT MOST A
FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL FRIDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY
ACROSS LONG ISLAND.

RAINFALL FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN UNDER A HALF INCH WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS GENERALLY ACROSS
THE COASTAL AREAS. NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC IMPACT IS EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...JC/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...JC/MALOIT







000
FXUS61 KALY 301113
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
713 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE FAIR AND SEASONABLY COOL
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. COLDER AIR WILL
ARRIVE DURING THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG STORM FORMS WELL OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. THE COLDER AIR WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM...STLT PICS SHOW CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE CLOUD BAND OVER THE REGION
WILL SLOWLY BREAK UP TODAY AND ALLOW FOR AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY SKIES
BY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS
THIS MORNING OVER THE SCHOHARIE AND MOHAWK VALLEYS AND THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS. HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

FOR THIS UPDATE HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY RAISED THE HOURLY TEMP GRIDS
BECAUSE CURRENT TEMPS WERE MUCH WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HOLD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY. GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY...WITH SOME AREAS OF MOSTLY CLEAR LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY. BY LATE FRIDAY CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL TRACK WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A STRONG SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO
DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND THEN TRACK NORTHEAST. ANY
SIGNIFICANT PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE LOW WILL MISS THE
ALBANY FORECAST AREA...BUT THERE WILL BE SOME RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL
TROF...AND HAVE FORECAST 30 TO 50 PERCENT POPS DURING THIS PERIOD.

LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. HIGHS SATURDAY
IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES A CHILLY START TO CLOSE THE
WEEKEND..BUT THEN MODERATING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID WEEK BEFORE
THE NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES.  THE WPC GUIDANCE WAS FAVORED IN THE
LONG TERM.  THE ECMWF...GFS...AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT WITH WPC.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...IMPRESSIVE H500 UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
OVER THE ERN CONUS.  SIGNIFICANT OCEANIC CYCLONE LOOKS TO STAY FAR
ENOUGH OFFSHORE FOR MINIMAL IMPACT IN TERMS OF PCPN...BUT IT WILL BE
COLD AND WINDY.  THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT SNOW
SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR FILTERS IN.  ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE LIGHT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO M20S OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...AND U20S TO L30S IN THE VALLEYS.  BY SUNDAY...THE SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS BETWEEN THE OCEAN CYCLONE AND A SFC
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE TN VALLEY.  BRISK N/NW WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH
AND H850 TEMPS OF -4C TO -8C WILL MAY IT FEEL LIKE WINTER! EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE 30S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND U30S TO M40S IN THE
VALLEYS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...FAIR AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTHEAST INTO THE FCST AREA FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC REGION.  A VERY COLD NIGHT IS
EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.  MONDAY...TEMPS CREEP CLOSER TO
NORMAL EARLY NOVEMBER READINGS BUT STILL WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL BY 5
DEGREES OR SO WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO L50S...THOUGH A FEW
U30S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SRN DACKS.  A WARM FRONT STARTS TO APPROACH
FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AND OHIO VALLEY WITH AN INCREASE
IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MON NIGHT.  TEMPS WILL BE A TAD WARMER IN THE
30S.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...A NICE DAY IS EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH A
MILDER AIR MASS BUILDING IN ACROSS THE REGION.  IN THE WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN...H850 TEMPS RISE BACK TO +8C TO +12C.  EXPECT
HIGHS TEMPS TO BE CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WED WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS.  TEMPS SHOULD STILL RUN AT
NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL READINGS FOR THE MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DOMINATE TODAY...AS A SFC TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING.

VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HRS AT KGFL/KALB/KPSF
WITH BKN-OVC CONDITIONS IN THE 6-8 KFT AGL RANGE LOWERING TO 4-6
KFT BY THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.  THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
KPOU WHERE SOME MVFR MIST WILL LINGER FORMA FEW MORE HOURS UNTIL
14Z.  EXPECT WIDESPREAD STRATOCUMULUS IN THE AFTERNOON...AND THEN
START TO DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING WITH JUST SOME SCT CUMULUS
AND SCT-BKN CIRRUS AROUND TONIGHT.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM THIS MORNING...AND THEN INCREASE TO
4-8 KTS FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AT 5 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...ESP AT
NIGHT WHEN VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT. WINDS WILL NE NORTHWEST
AT 5 TO 15 MPH TODAY...AND LIGHT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRODUCES SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

ANY PRECIP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT...AND BASIN
AVERAGE AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW RIVER LEVELS TO HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS








000
FXUS61 KALY 301042
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
442 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE FAIR AND SEASONABLY COOL
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. COLDER AIR WILL
ARRIVE DURING THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG STORM FORMS WELL OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. THE COLDER AIR WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 630 AM...STLT PICS SHOW CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE CLOUD BAND OVER THE REGION
WILL SLOWLY BREAK UP TODAY AND ALLOW FOR AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY SKIES
BY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS
THIS MORNING OVER THE SCHOHARIE AND MOHAWK VALLEYS AND THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS. HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

FOR THIS UPDATE HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY RAISED THE HOURLY TEMP GRIDS
BECAUSE CURRENT TEMPS WERE MUCH WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HOLD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY. GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY...WITH SOME AREAS OF MOSTLY CLEAR LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY. BY LATE FRIDAY CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL TRACK WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A STRONG SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO
DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND THEN TRACK NORTHEAST. ANY
SIGNIFICANT PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE LOW WILL MISS THE
ALBANY FORECAST AREA...BUT THERE WILL BE SOME RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL
TROF...AND HAVE FORECAST 30 TO 50 PERCENT POPS DURING THIS PERIOD.

LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. HIGHS SATURDAY
IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES A CHILLY START TO CLOSE THE
WEEKEND..BUT THEN MODERATING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID WEEK BEFORE
THE NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES.  THE WPC GUIDANCE WAS FAVORED IN THE
LONG TERM.  THE ECMWF...GFS...AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT WITH WPC.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...IMPRESSIVE H500 UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
OVER THE ERN CONUS.  SIGNIFICANT OCEANIC CYCLONE LOOKS TO STAY FAR
ENOUGH OFFSHORE FOR MINIMAL IMPACT IN TERMS OF PCPN...BUT IT WILL BE
COLD AND WINDY.  THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT SNOW
SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR FILTERS IN.  ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE LIGHT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO M20S OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...AND U20S TO L30S IN THE VALLEYS.  BY SUNDAY...THE SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS BETWEEN THE OCEAN CYCLONE AND A SFC
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE TN VALLEY.  BRISK N/NW WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH
AND H850 TEMPS OF -4C TO -8C WILL MAY IT FEEL LIKE WINTER! EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE 30S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND U30S TO M40S IN THE
VALLEYS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...FAIR AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTHEAST INTO THE FCST AREA FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC REGION.  A VERY COLD NIGHT IS
EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.  MONDAY...TEMPS CREEP CLOSER TO
NORMAL EARLY NOVEMBER READINGS BUT STILL WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL BY 5
DEGREES OR SO WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO L50S...THOUGH A FEW
U30S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SRN DACKS.  A WARM FRONT STARTS TO APPROACH
FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AND OHIO VALLEY WITH AN INCREASE
IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MON NIGHT.  TEMPS WILL BE A TAD WARMER IN THE
30S.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...A NICE DAY IS EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH A
MILDER AIR MASS BUILDING IN ACROSS THE REGION.  IN THE WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN...H850 TEMPS RISE BACK TO +8C TO +12C.  EXPECT
HIGHS TEMPS TO BE CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WED WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS.  TEMPS SHOULD STILL RUN AT
NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL READINGS FOR THE MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DOMINATE TODAY...AS A SFC TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING.

VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HRS AT KGFL/KALB/KPSF
WITH BKN-OVC CONDITIONS IN THE 6-8 KFT AGL RANGE LOWERING TO 4-6
KFT BY THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.  THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
KPOU WHERE VLIFR/LIFR FOG AND STRATUS FORMED IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY YESTERDAY.  THE LIFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LAST
UNTIL 10-12Z...THEN SLOWLY RISE TO IFR VSBYS AND VFR CIGS BTWN 12Z-
14Z. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN THEREAFTER. EXPECT WIDESPREAD
STRATOCUMULUS IN THE AFTERNOON...AND THEN START TO DISSIPATE EARLY
THIS EVENING WITH JUST SOME SCT CUMULUS AND SCT-BKN CIRRUS AROUND.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM THIS MORNING...AND THEN INCREASE TO
4-8 KTS FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AT 5 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...ESP AT
NIGHT WHEN VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT. WINDS WILL NE NORTHWEST
AT 5 TO 15 MPH TODAY...AND LIGHT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRODUCES SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

ANY PRECIP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT...AND BASIN
AVERAGE AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW RIVER LEVELS TO HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...GJM/FRUGIS














000
FXUS61 KALY 301042
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
442 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE FAIR AND SEASONABLY COOL
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. COLDER AIR WILL
ARRIVE DURING THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG STORM FORMS WELL OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. THE COLDER AIR WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 630 AM...STLT PICS SHOW CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE CLOUD BAND OVER THE REGION
WILL SLOWLY BREAK UP TODAY AND ALLOW FOR AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY SKIES
BY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS
THIS MORNING OVER THE SCHOHARIE AND MOHAWK VALLEYS AND THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS. HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

FOR THIS UPDATE HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY RAISED THE HOURLY TEMP GRIDS
BECAUSE CURRENT TEMPS WERE MUCH WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HOLD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY. GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY...WITH SOME AREAS OF MOSTLY CLEAR LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY. BY LATE FRIDAY CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL TRACK WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A STRONG SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO
DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND THEN TRACK NORTHEAST. ANY
SIGNIFICANT PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE LOW WILL MISS THE
ALBANY FORECAST AREA...BUT THERE WILL BE SOME RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL
TROF...AND HAVE FORECAST 30 TO 50 PERCENT POPS DURING THIS PERIOD.

LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. HIGHS SATURDAY
IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES A CHILLY START TO CLOSE THE
WEEKEND..BUT THEN MODERATING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID WEEK BEFORE
THE NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES.  THE WPC GUIDANCE WAS FAVORED IN THE
LONG TERM.  THE ECMWF...GFS...AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT WITH WPC.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...IMPRESSIVE H500 UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
OVER THE ERN CONUS.  SIGNIFICANT OCEANIC CYCLONE LOOKS TO STAY FAR
ENOUGH OFFSHORE FOR MINIMAL IMPACT IN TERMS OF PCPN...BUT IT WILL BE
COLD AND WINDY.  THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT SNOW
SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR FILTERS IN.  ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE LIGHT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO M20S OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...AND U20S TO L30S IN THE VALLEYS.  BY SUNDAY...THE SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS BETWEEN THE OCEAN CYCLONE AND A SFC
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE TN VALLEY.  BRISK N/NW WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH
AND H850 TEMPS OF -4C TO -8C WILL MAY IT FEEL LIKE WINTER! EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE 30S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND U30S TO M40S IN THE
VALLEYS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...FAIR AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTHEAST INTO THE FCST AREA FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC REGION.  A VERY COLD NIGHT IS
EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.  MONDAY...TEMPS CREEP CLOSER TO
NORMAL EARLY NOVEMBER READINGS BUT STILL WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL BY 5
DEGREES OR SO WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO L50S...THOUGH A FEW
U30S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SRN DACKS.  A WARM FRONT STARTS TO APPROACH
FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AND OHIO VALLEY WITH AN INCREASE
IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MON NIGHT.  TEMPS WILL BE A TAD WARMER IN THE
30S.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...A NICE DAY IS EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH A
MILDER AIR MASS BUILDING IN ACROSS THE REGION.  IN THE WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN...H850 TEMPS RISE BACK TO +8C TO +12C.  EXPECT
HIGHS TEMPS TO BE CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WED WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS.  TEMPS SHOULD STILL RUN AT
NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL READINGS FOR THE MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DOMINATE TODAY...AS A SFC TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING.

VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HRS AT KGFL/KALB/KPSF
WITH BKN-OVC CONDITIONS IN THE 6-8 KFT AGL RANGE LOWERING TO 4-6
KFT BY THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.  THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
KPOU WHERE VLIFR/LIFR FOG AND STRATUS FORMED IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY YESTERDAY.  THE LIFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LAST
UNTIL 10-12Z...THEN SLOWLY RISE TO IFR VSBYS AND VFR CIGS BTWN 12Z-
14Z. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN THEREAFTER. EXPECT WIDESPREAD
STRATOCUMULUS IN THE AFTERNOON...AND THEN START TO DISSIPATE EARLY
THIS EVENING WITH JUST SOME SCT CUMULUS AND SCT-BKN CIRRUS AROUND.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM THIS MORNING...AND THEN INCREASE TO
4-8 KTS FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AT 5 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...ESP AT
NIGHT WHEN VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT. WINDS WILL NE NORTHWEST
AT 5 TO 15 MPH TODAY...AND LIGHT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRODUCES SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

ANY PRECIP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT...AND BASIN
AVERAGE AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW RIVER LEVELS TO HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...GJM/FRUGIS














000
FXUS61 KOKX 301035 CCA
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
634 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY. ..THEN TRACKS
NORTHEAST TO EAST OF CAPE COD BY SATURDAY EVENING. MEANWHILE A
SECONDARY LOW FORMS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY...THEN
TRACKS NORTHEAST TO THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES BY SUNDAY
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS STORM THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT...THEN MOVES OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT APPROACHING ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MADE MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. EXCEPTION IS THE TEMPERATURE AT
FOK...WHICH HAS FALLEN QUITE A BIT MORE THAN EXPECTED. OVERALL
THOUGH...THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

PATCHY FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO
THE W/N OF NYC METRO...IS APPEARING TO HAVE STARTED TO DISSIPATE
AND AS OF NOW...LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK TO BECOME AT MOST ISOLATED IN
NATURE BY 11Z...SO AT THIS TIME DO NOT PLAN ON RE-ISSUING SPS FOR
LOCALLY DENSE FOG AT 11Z.

OTHERWISE...PASSAGE OF 700-500 HPA TROUGH AXIS TODAY WILL ONLY
PRODUCE SOME SCT CLOUDS AS AROUND 10KT OR DOWNSLOPE BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW SERVES AS A LIMITING FACTOR.

FOR HIGHS TODAY USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 900-875 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
A 850-500 HPA SHORTWAVE RIDGE CROSSES THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH
ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE PROMOTING MINIMAL CLOUD COVER AND
DIMINISHING WINDS. AS A RESULT...HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS LOWER OF
MET/MAV/ECS GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES FOR LOWS. NOT
QUITE CERTAIN ENOUGH OF A COMPLETELY CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS TO
GO COLDER AT THIS TIME. LOWS SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL.

A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS NNW FROM COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING OFF
THE VA/NC COAST FRIDAY TOWARDS LONG ISLAND. THIS COUPLED WITH A
PASSING WEAK 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE WARRANTS INCREASING CLOUD COVER
OVER THE ENTIRE REGION AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR -SHRA OVER
MAINLY LONG ISLAND FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR HIGHS FRIDAY...A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 900-875 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGIZES A SURFACE LOW EMERGING OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. MODEL CONSENSUS AND THEIR
RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEANS STRENGTHEN THIS STORM AS IT HEADS
NE...PASSING SE OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. A SURFACE TROUGH FIRST BRINGS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
TO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. AT LEAST CHANCE POPS REMAIN ON SATURDAY
WITH SOME MID LEVEL LIFT...ALTHOUGH MODEL QPF OUTPUT SUGGESTS
THAT COASTAL AREAS WARRANT LIKELY POPS...BEING CLOSER TO THE
STORM CENTER. CHANCES OF RAINFALL THEN DIMINISH THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT AS THE STORM SHIFTS FARTHER OUT TO SEA...WITH DRY WEATHER
BY SUNDAY MORNING.

THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST AN ALL RAIN EVENT. BY THE TIME FREEZING
LEVELS AND WET BULB ZEROES LOWER ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A MIX OF RAIN
AND SNOW...PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE ENDED OR WILL JUST ABOUT TO
END. THIS WOULD BE THE CASE FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1000 FT NORTH
AND WEST OF THE CITY. WITH SUCH LIMITED COVERAGE OF A LOW
PROBABILITY EVENT...HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION OF SNOW FROM THE
GRIDS.

WINDS WILL END UP BEING THE BIGGER STORY...AND WILL BE AT THEIR
STRONGEST FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. COULD
GET CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA AT SOME POINT DURING THIS
PERIOD...SO WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IS
EXPECTED TO BE DRY. HIGHS ON SUNDAY AVERAGING AT LEAST 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...WITH WIND CHILL VALUES AROUND 30 DEGREES FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE MORNING. THE GROWING SEASON THEN PROBABLY ENDS
FOR MORE OF THE ZONES OUTSIDE OF THE CITY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS
AROUND THE FREEZING MARK. TEMPS THEN BEGIN THEIR CLIMB BACK
TOWARDS NORMAL ON MONDAY...BEFORE REACHING NEAR NORMAL ON TUESDAY
WITH A SW FLOW.

NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THEN ARRIVES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH A WARM FRONT PASSAGE FOLLOWED BY THE APPROACH OF A COLD
FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HI PRES BUILDS OVER THE METRO TODAY. LOW PRES BEGINS TO DEVELOP S
OF THE REGION FRI.

VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR FG WHICH COULD BRING THINGS
TO LIFR AT KSWF AND PERHAPS AT KHPN/KTEB. GREATEST LIKELIHOOD AT
KSWF WHERE A TEMPO WAS INCLUDED IN THE TAF.

MAINLY NW WINDS AT OR BELOW 10KT. SOME BACKING TO THE WNW THIS
AFTN...ESPECIALLY S COASTS. DIRECTION VEERS TO THE N OVERNIGHT.


     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: VARIABILITY IN WIND DIRECTION CAN BE
EXPECTED THRU 12Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: VARIABILITY IN WIND DIRECTION CAN BE
EXPECTED THRU 12Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR BR POSSIBLE TIL AROUND 12Z. PROB TOO
LOW HOWEVER TO INCLUDE A TEMPO IN THE TAFS ATTM.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: LIFR FG POSSIBLE TIL AROUND 12Z. PROB TOO
LOW HOWEVER TO INCLUDE A TEMPO IN THE TAFS ATTM.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.


.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THU NGT...VFR.
.FRI...CIGS LOWER THRU THE DAY WITH MVFR POSSIBLE LATE.
.FRI NGT-SAT NGT...MVFR OR LOWER. PCPN MAINLY RAIN...BUT SNOW MAY
MIX IN ACROSS THE INTERIOR AT NGT. NE-N WINDS 15-20G25-35KT.
.SUNDAY...VFR. NW WINDS 15-20G25-30KT.
.MONDAY...VFR. WEST WINDS 5-10 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
MADE MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS AROUND LONG ISLAND
WILL RESULT IN WINDS 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH FRIDAY. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION TO THIS IS POSSIBLY OVER THE FAR EASTERN COASTAL OCEAN
WATERS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WHERE NE FLOW COULD STRENGTHEN TO UP
TO 15 KT. AS A RESULT...SUB-SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON
ALL MARINE ZONES THROUGH FRIDAY.

SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ON ALL WATERS FROM FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING AS NE FLOW STRENGTHENS...THEN EXPECT
NORTHERLY GALES ON THE OCEAN BY SAT AFTERNOON...AND N-NW GALES ON
ALL WATERS - ESPECIALLY THE OCEAN AND THE ERN SOUND/BAYS SAT NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FROM SUNDAY
NIGHT ON...WITH SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON THE SOUND/HARBOR/BAYS BY MON
MORNING...AND ON THE OCEAN BY MON NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AT MOST A
FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL FRIDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY
ACROSS LONG ISLAND.

RAINFALL FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN UNDER A HALF INCH WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS GENERALLY ACROSS
THE COASTAL AREAS. NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC IMPACT IS EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/JC
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...MALOIT/JC
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/JC






000
FXUS61 KOKX 301035 CCA
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
634 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY. ..THEN TRACKS
NORTHEAST TO EAST OF CAPE COD BY SATURDAY EVENING. MEANWHILE A
SECONDARY LOW FORMS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY...THEN
TRACKS NORTHEAST TO THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES BY SUNDAY
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS STORM THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT...THEN MOVES OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT APPROACHING ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MADE MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. EXCEPTION IS THE TEMPERATURE AT
FOK...WHICH HAS FALLEN QUITE A BIT MORE THAN EXPECTED. OVERALL
THOUGH...THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

PATCHY FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO
THE W/N OF NYC METRO...IS APPEARING TO HAVE STARTED TO DISSIPATE
AND AS OF NOW...LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK TO BECOME AT MOST ISOLATED IN
NATURE BY 11Z...SO AT THIS TIME DO NOT PLAN ON RE-ISSUING SPS FOR
LOCALLY DENSE FOG AT 11Z.

OTHERWISE...PASSAGE OF 700-500 HPA TROUGH AXIS TODAY WILL ONLY
PRODUCE SOME SCT CLOUDS AS AROUND 10KT OR DOWNSLOPE BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW SERVES AS A LIMITING FACTOR.

FOR HIGHS TODAY USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 900-875 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
A 850-500 HPA SHORTWAVE RIDGE CROSSES THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH
ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE PROMOTING MINIMAL CLOUD COVER AND
DIMINISHING WINDS. AS A RESULT...HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS LOWER OF
MET/MAV/ECS GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES FOR LOWS. NOT
QUITE CERTAIN ENOUGH OF A COMPLETELY CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS TO
GO COLDER AT THIS TIME. LOWS SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL.

A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS NNW FROM COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING OFF
THE VA/NC COAST FRIDAY TOWARDS LONG ISLAND. THIS COUPLED WITH A
PASSING WEAK 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE WARRANTS INCREASING CLOUD COVER
OVER THE ENTIRE REGION AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR -SHRA OVER
MAINLY LONG ISLAND FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR HIGHS FRIDAY...A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 900-875 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGIZES A SURFACE LOW EMERGING OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. MODEL CONSENSUS AND THEIR
RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEANS STRENGTHEN THIS STORM AS IT HEADS
NE...PASSING SE OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. A SURFACE TROUGH FIRST BRINGS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
TO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. AT LEAST CHANCE POPS REMAIN ON SATURDAY
WITH SOME MID LEVEL LIFT...ALTHOUGH MODEL QPF OUTPUT SUGGESTS
THAT COASTAL AREAS WARRANT LIKELY POPS...BEING CLOSER TO THE
STORM CENTER. CHANCES OF RAINFALL THEN DIMINISH THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT AS THE STORM SHIFTS FARTHER OUT TO SEA...WITH DRY WEATHER
BY SUNDAY MORNING.

THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST AN ALL RAIN EVENT. BY THE TIME FREEZING
LEVELS AND WET BULB ZEROES LOWER ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A MIX OF RAIN
AND SNOW...PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE ENDED OR WILL JUST ABOUT TO
END. THIS WOULD BE THE CASE FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1000 FT NORTH
AND WEST OF THE CITY. WITH SUCH LIMITED COVERAGE OF A LOW
PROBABILITY EVENT...HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION OF SNOW FROM THE
GRIDS.

WINDS WILL END UP BEING THE BIGGER STORY...AND WILL BE AT THEIR
STRONGEST FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. COULD
GET CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA AT SOME POINT DURING THIS
PERIOD...SO WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IS
EXPECTED TO BE DRY. HIGHS ON SUNDAY AVERAGING AT LEAST 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...WITH WIND CHILL VALUES AROUND 30 DEGREES FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE MORNING. THE GROWING SEASON THEN PROBABLY ENDS
FOR MORE OF THE ZONES OUTSIDE OF THE CITY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS
AROUND THE FREEZING MARK. TEMPS THEN BEGIN THEIR CLIMB BACK
TOWARDS NORMAL ON MONDAY...BEFORE REACHING NEAR NORMAL ON TUESDAY
WITH A SW FLOW.

NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THEN ARRIVES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH A WARM FRONT PASSAGE FOLLOWED BY THE APPROACH OF A COLD
FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HI PRES BUILDS OVER THE METRO TODAY. LOW PRES BEGINS TO DEVELOP S
OF THE REGION FRI.

VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR FG WHICH COULD BRING THINGS
TO LIFR AT KSWF AND PERHAPS AT KHPN/KTEB. GREATEST LIKELIHOOD AT
KSWF WHERE A TEMPO WAS INCLUDED IN THE TAF.

MAINLY NW WINDS AT OR BELOW 10KT. SOME BACKING TO THE WNW THIS
AFTN...ESPECIALLY S COASTS. DIRECTION VEERS TO THE N OVERNIGHT.


     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: VARIABILITY IN WIND DIRECTION CAN BE
EXPECTED THRU 12Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: VARIABILITY IN WIND DIRECTION CAN BE
EXPECTED THRU 12Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR BR POSSIBLE TIL AROUND 12Z. PROB TOO
LOW HOWEVER TO INCLUDE A TEMPO IN THE TAFS ATTM.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: LIFR FG POSSIBLE TIL AROUND 12Z. PROB TOO
LOW HOWEVER TO INCLUDE A TEMPO IN THE TAFS ATTM.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.


.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THU NGT...VFR.
.FRI...CIGS LOWER THRU THE DAY WITH MVFR POSSIBLE LATE.
.FRI NGT-SAT NGT...MVFR OR LOWER. PCPN MAINLY RAIN...BUT SNOW MAY
MIX IN ACROSS THE INTERIOR AT NGT. NE-N WINDS 15-20G25-35KT.
.SUNDAY...VFR. NW WINDS 15-20G25-30KT.
.MONDAY...VFR. WEST WINDS 5-10 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
MADE MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS AROUND LONG ISLAND
WILL RESULT IN WINDS 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH FRIDAY. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION TO THIS IS POSSIBLY OVER THE FAR EASTERN COASTAL OCEAN
WATERS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WHERE NE FLOW COULD STRENGTHEN TO UP
TO 15 KT. AS A RESULT...SUB-SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON
ALL MARINE ZONES THROUGH FRIDAY.

SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ON ALL WATERS FROM FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING AS NE FLOW STRENGTHENS...THEN EXPECT
NORTHERLY GALES ON THE OCEAN BY SAT AFTERNOON...AND N-NW GALES ON
ALL WATERS - ESPECIALLY THE OCEAN AND THE ERN SOUND/BAYS SAT NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FROM SUNDAY
NIGHT ON...WITH SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON THE SOUND/HARBOR/BAYS BY MON
MORNING...AND ON THE OCEAN BY MON NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AT MOST A
FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL FRIDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY
ACROSS LONG ISLAND.

RAINFALL FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN UNDER A HALF INCH WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS GENERALLY ACROSS
THE COASTAL AREAS. NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC IMPACT IS EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/JC
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...MALOIT/JC
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/JC






000
FXUS61 KBOX 300847
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
447 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. A COASTAL STORM WILL LIKELY DELIVER A
GLANCING BLOW TO THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...BUT THE
OPPORTUNITY FOR A HIGHER IMPACT STILL EXISTS. MAINLY DRY WEATHER
FOLLOWS WITH A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND BY NEXT TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

LAST OF THE SHOWERS HAVE CLEARED THE OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET AT
08Z...THOUGH NOTING SOME MORE SHOWERS LINGERING WELL S OF LONG
ISLAND THAT MIGHT CLIP NANTUCKET THROUGH MID MORNING. HAVE KEPT A
DRY FORECAST GOING THERE...FOR NOW. PATCHY FOG...WITH VSBYS
LOCALLY LOWERED TO 1/2 MILE OR LESS...ACROSS THE CT VALLEY WILL
DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING.

FOR TODAY...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AS WEAK HIGH PRES APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY AS H5 SHORT WAVE CROSSES THE
REGION...PUSHING OFFSHORE BY MIDDAY. H85 TEMPS DO FALL DURING THE
DAY...THOUGH LOOKS LIKE THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR REMAINS TO THE N.
TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLE FOR LATE OCTOBER...TOPPING OFF IN THE
50S. EXPECT LIGHT W-NW WINDS WITH A LIGHT PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...

TONIGHT...
EXPECT THE WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGE TO BUILD E ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. LIGHT N WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE WHICH WILL VEER TO
NE AFTER MIDNIGHT. MAY SEE SOME MORE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP IN THE
NORMALLY PRONE VALLEY AREAS.

NOTING LOW PRES OVER THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AS A DIGGING H5
SHORT WAVE DIVES SE. SW FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE...SO COULD
SEE SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WORK INTO WESTERN AREAS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WITH THE COLDER AIR WORKING IN ALONG WITH A GENERAL
LIGHT WIND IN PLACE...EXPECT LOWS FALLING BACK TO THE 30S FOR MOST
AREAS...RANGING TO LOWER-MID 40S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WILL
NEED TO MONITOR FOR FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES MAY BE NECESSARY FOR
S/E COASTAL MA AND RI.

FRIDAY...
MAJOR DIGGING H5 LONG WAVE TROUGH/CUTOFF LOW TAKES SHAPE ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...WHICH SETS UP AN
INCREASING SW FLOW ALOFT ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. HOWEVER...AT
THE SURFACE...GENERAL LIGHT FLOW CONTINUES THOUGH E-NE WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO FRESHEN DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE S COAST. BIG
QUESTION AT THIS POINT...WHERE LOW PRES DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLC
OR SE U.S. COAST FRI AFTERNOON.

EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE WITH THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL ONSHORE
FLOW IN PLACE. THIS WILL HOLD TEMPS BACK. HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH
THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SW NH/W MA...RANGING TO
THE LOWER-MID 50S ELSEWHERE.

AT THIS POINT...NOT EXPECTING ORGANIZED PRECIP DURING THE DAY ON
FRIDAY AS BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE REMAINS S OF THE REGION.
HOWEVER...COULD SEE SOME OCEAN INDUCED LIGHT SPRINKLES OR EVEN
SOME COASTAL DRIZZLE. DID NOT MENTION THIS FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* GLANCING BLOW MOST LIKELY SAT/EARLY SUNDAY...BUT GREATER IMPACT
  STILL POSSIBLE
* BIGGEST CONCERN IS STRONG WINDS THIS WEEKEND ESPECIALLY CAPE COD
* ACCUMULATING SNOW IS STILL POSSIBLE...BUT A LOW PROBABILITY
* MUCH MILDER WEATHER RETURNS BY NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY

OVERVIEW...
30/00Z GUIDANCE HAD COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING THEIR
HANDLING OF A SIGNIFICANT COASTAL STORM THIS WEEKEND. THERE ARE A
FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS THAT SUGGEST A CLOSER TRACK TO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND REMAINS POSSIBLE...BUT NOT VERY LIKELY. THE PREDOMINANT
SIGNAL IS FOR A TRACK REMAINING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE 40N/70W
BENCHMARK. WILL FAVOR A CONSENSUS BLEND TO SMOOTH OVER AS MANY
MINOR DIFFERENCES AS POSSIBLE.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS REMAINS MODERATE FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD. THE BIGGEST CONCERN REMAIN POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO PERHAPS
DAMAGING WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET. THERE
ARE TWO MAIN SHORTWAVES INVOLVED IN THIS STORM/S FORMATION.
INITIALLY...MOST MODELS FORM AN ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OR
EVEN TWO CENTERS BEFORE CONSOLIDATING INTO A SINGLE PRIMARY STORM.
CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS HAPPENS TOO LATE FOR A
SIGNIFICANT RAIN/SNOW EVENT IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

PRECIPITATION TYPE AND TIMING...
A LOT OF THIS WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAR WEST THE MAIN PRECIPITATION
SHIELD REACHES. MOST OF THE FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN OFFSHORE...WHICH WOULD ALSO SUGGEST A RATHER SHARP WESTERN
EDGE TO THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD. MINOR WOBBLES IN THE
TRACK...COULD HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON WHERE THIS EDGE TO THE
PRECIPITATION ESTABLISHES ITSELF.

INITIALLY...ALL PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN OR JUST
SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY. IN FACT...MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL
BE OVER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND...WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN
SECTIONS IF THE CURRENT TRACK VERIFIES. IF THIS TRACK SHIFTS WEST
AND WE END UP GETTING INTO HEAVIER PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SUNDAY...DYNAMIC COOLING COULD RESULT IN SOME SNOW ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.  AGAIN...BASED ON THE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TRACK...
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS A RATHER LOW PROBABILITY. REGARDLESS...MOST
PRECIPITATION SHOULD HAVE EXITED OUR REGION BY MID MORNING SUNDAY.

STRONG WINDS...
STRONG WINDS ARE THE ONE THING WE ARE FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT WILL
DEVELOP. EXCELLENT MIXING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS STORM SHOULD
RESULT IN NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH DEVELOPING
LATE SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AS MIXING INCREASES. ACROSS
CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THIS STORM...WE
MAY SEE A PERIOD OF 50 TO 60 MPH WIND GUSTS. WIND ADVISORIES MAY
BE NEEDED FOR MUCH OF THE REGION AND PERHAPS HIGH WIND
WATCHES/WARNINGS FOR THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET. GIVEN MANY TREES
STILL HAVE AT LEAST SOME LEAVES ON THEM...THE RISK FOR TREE DAMAGE
AND ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES WILL BE ENHANCED.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE REGION AND WE ENTER AN
AREA OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND EXPECTED
WITH SOME OF THE COASTAL PLAIN POSSIBLY SEEING HIGHS BREAK 60 BY
TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. MAINLY DRY WEATHER OVER THIS TIME...BUT A
SPOT SHOWER OR TWO IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY TOWARD WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH
TONIGHT...THEN MODERATE CONFIDENCE FRIDAY.

THROUGH 12Z...MAINLY VFR. PATCHY FOG ACROSS CT VALLEY OF SW NH AND
W MA WITH LOCAL IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS AT NORMALLY PRONE AREAS
THROUGH 12Z. LOW PROB OF LOCAL MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS ACROSS
INTERIOR E MA INTO NE CT BETWEEN 08Z-12Z.

TODAY...MVFR-IFR VSBYS IMPROVE BY 14Z ACROSS CT VALLEY...
OTHERWISE VFR. SCT-BKN CLOUDS 4-5KFT FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...VFR. INCREASING CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT. MAY SEE LOCAL
MVFR-IFR ACROSS SW NH INTO NW MA LATE. SHALLOW PATCHY GROUND FOG
POSSIBLE AT PRONE TERMINALS.

FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. WINDS SHIFT TO E-NE DURING DAY...INCREASING
ALONG COAST TO 10-15 KT WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 KT LATE IN DAY.
MAY SEE MVFR CIGS DEVELOP ALONG E COAST TERMINALS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WIDELY SCT SHOWERS ALONG S COAST POSSIBLE LATE.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR TO START BUT ONSHORE FLOW
MAY RESULT IN MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING. A SPOT SHOWER OR TWO POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE. MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS VFR TO
BE MIXED AT TIMES WITH MVFR LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
LOWER CONDITIONS MOST LIKELY ALONG THE COAST WITH RAIN OR
SCATTERED SHOWERS.

LOW PROBABILITY FOR A CHANGE TO SNOW AT THE END. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE SUNDAY...BUT NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS
OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS EXPECTED. STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS CAPE COD AND
NANTUCKET WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS POSSIBLE.

MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 12Z...LEFTOVER 5-6 FT SEAS AND GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL
DIMINISH TOWARD DAYBREAK.

TODAY...LEFTOVER 5 FT SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS E AND S OF CAPE COD
SHOULD SUBSIDE BY MID MORNING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS
BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

TONIGHT...LIGHT NE WINDS AND SEAS UP TO 3 FT.

FRIDAY...WINDS BECOME E-NE BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA. SEAS SLOWLY INCREASE TO 3 FT ON SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THOUGH MONDAY...

***STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS AND 20 FOOT SEAS POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY
 INTO SUNDAY ACROSS THE OPEN ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF
 MASSACHUSETTS***

FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. INCREASING NE WINDS. GUSTS UP TO
30 KT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 5 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. HIGH IMPACT MARINE
EVENT EXPECTED. WHILE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON THE EXACT TRACK AND
TIMING OF A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE...HIGH CONFIDENCE GALE FORCE
NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS ACROSS MOST WATERS LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
IN FACT... MODERATE RISK FOR A PERIOD OF STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS
WITH 20 FOOT SEAS ACROSS THE OPEN ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF
MASSACHUSETTS. EXACT WIND SPEEDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS WILL DEPEND UPON
THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY OF COASTAL LOW PRESSURE. A MARINE
WEATHER STATEMENT WAS ISSUED TO ADDRESS THESE CONCERNS.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. NORTHWEST 25-30 KT WIND GUSTS AND
SEAS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE MUCH OF THE DAY WITH GOOD MIXING IN THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES ARE NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE LATE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY. NONETHELESS...THERE IS AT LEAST A LOW PROBABILITY FOR
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING/EROSION ALONG THE EASTERN MA COAST AS WELL
AS PORTIONS OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. THE CONCERN IS FOR THE
EARLY MORNING HIGH TIDE SUNDAY. IF WE END UP REALIZING 20 FOOT
SEAS OVER THE OPEN OCEAN AND NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50
KNOTS...THERE COULD BE SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND EROSION.
SOME OF THE HOT SPOTS WOULD BE SALISBURY AND PLUM ISLAND...
HULL...SCITUATE AND PERHAPS SANDWICH HARBOR AND NANTUCKET HARBOR.
AGAIN...IT WILL DEPEND ON EXACT WIND SPEEDS/WAVE HEIGHTS OUT OVER
THE OCEAN DURING THE EARLY MORNING SUNDAY HIGH TIDE CYCLE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ254>256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BELK/EVT
NEAR TERM...EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/EVT
MARINE...BELK/EVT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BELK




000
FXUS61 KOKX 300842
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
442 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY. ..THEN TRACKS
NORTHEAST TO EAST OF CAPE COD BY SATURDAY EVENING. MEANWHILE A
SECONDARY LOW FORMS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY...THEN
TRACKS NORTHEAST TO THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES BY SUNDAY
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS STORM THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT...THEN MOVES OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT APPROACHING ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PATCHY FOG...LOCALLY DENSE HAS DEVELOPED MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS TO THE W/N OF NYC METRO. HAVE ADDRESSED WITH AN SPS. DO
THINK IT WILL DISSIPATE AS LOWER DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO ADVECT
IN...BY 11Z. HAVE SEEN SOME IMPROVEMENT IN VISIBILITIES WITH 7Z
OBSERVATIONS IN SUPPORT OF THIS LINE OF THINKING...SO WILL EXTEND
SPS UNTIL 11Z.

OTHERWISE...PASSAGE OF 700-500 HPA TROUGH AXIS TODAY WILL ONLY
PRODUCE SOME SCT CLOUDS AS AROUND 10KT OR DOWNSLOPE BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW SERVES AS A LIMITING FACTOR.

FOR HIGHS TODAY USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 900-875 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
A 850-500 HPA SHORTWAVE RIDGE CROSSES THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH
ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE PROMOTING MINIMAL CLOUD COVER AND
DIMINISHING WINDS. AS A RESULT...HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS LOWER OF
MET/MAV/ECS GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES FOR LOWS. NOT
QUITE CERTAIN ENOUGH OF A COMPLETELY CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS TO
GO COLDER AT THIS TIME. LOWS SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL.

A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS NNW FROM COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING OFF
THE VA/NC COAST FRIDAY TOWARDS LONG ISLAND. THIS COUPLED WITH A
PASSING WEAK 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE WARRANTS INCREASING CLOUD COVER
OVER THE ENTIRE REGION AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR -SHRA OVER
MAINLY LONG ISLAND FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR HIGHS FRIDAY...A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 900-875 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGIZES A SURFACE LOW EMERGING OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. MODEL CONSENSUS AND THEIR
RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEANS STRENGTHEN THIS STORM AS IT HEADS
NE...PASSING SE OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. A SURFACE TROUGH FIRST BRINGS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
TO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. AT LEAST CHANCE POPS REMAIN ON SATURDAY
WITH SOME MID LEVEL LIFT...ALTHOUGH MODEL QPF OUTPUT SUGGESTS
THAT COASTAL AREAS WARRANT LIKELY POPS...BEING CLOSER TO THE
STORM CENTER. CHANCES OF RAINFALL THEN DIMINISH THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT AS THE STORM SHIFTS FARTHER OUT TO SEA...WITH DRY WEATHER
BY SUNDAY MORNING.

THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST AN ALL RAIN EVENT. BY THE TIME FREEZING
LEVELS AND WET BULB ZEROES LOWER ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A MIX OF RAIN
AND SNOW...PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE ENDED OR WILL JUST ABOUT TO
END. THIS WOULD BE THE CASE FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1000 FT NORTH
AND WEST OF THE CITY. WITH SUCH LIMITED COVERAGE OF A LOW
PROBABILITY EVENT...HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION OF SNOW FROM THE
GRIDS.

WINDS WILL END UP BEING THE BIGGER STORY...AND WILL BE AT THEIR
STRONGEST FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. COULD
GET CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA AT SOME POINT DURING THIS
PERIOD...SO WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IS
EXPECTED TO BE DRY. HIGHS ON SUNDAY AVERAGING AT LEAST 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...WITH WIND CHILL VALUES AROUND 30 DEGREES FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE MORNING. THE GROWING SEASON THEN PROBABLY ENDS
FOR MORE OF THE ZONES OUTSIDE OF THE CITY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS
AROUND THE FREEZING MARK. TEMPS THEN BEGIN THEIR CLIMB BACK
TOWARDS NORMAL ON MONDAY...BEFORE REACHING NEAR NORMAL ON TUESDAY
WITH A SW FLOW.

NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THEN ARRIVES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH A WARM FRONT PASSAGE FOLLOWED BY THE APPROACH OF A COLD
FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HI PRES BUILDS OVER THE METRO TODAY. LOW PRES BEGINS TO DEVELOP S
OF THE REGION FRI.

VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR FG WHICH COULD BRING THINGS
TO LIFR AT KSWF AND PERHAPS AT KHPN/KTEB. GREATEST LIKELIHOOD AT
KSWF WHERE A TEMPO WAS INCLUDED IN THE TAF.

MAINLY NW WINDS AT OR BELOW 10KT. SOME BACKING TO THE WNW THIS
AFTN...ESPECIALLY S COASTS. DIRECTION VEERS TO THE N OVERNIGHT.


...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: VARIABILITY IN WIND DIRECTION CAN BE
EXPECTED THRU 12Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: VARIABILITY IN WIND DIRECTION CAN BE
EXPECTED THRU 12Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR BR POSSIBLE TIL AROUND 12Z. PROB TOO
LOW HOWEVER TO INCLUDE A TEMPO IN THE TAFS ATTM.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: LIFR FG POSSIBLE TIL AROUND 12Z. PROB TOO
LOW HOWEVER TO INCLUDE A TEMPO IN THE TAFS ATTM.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.


.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THU NGT...VFR.
.FRI...CIGS LOWER THRU THE DAY WITH MVFR POSSIBLE LATE.
.FRI NGT-SAT NGT...MVFR OR LOWER. PCPN MAINLY RAIN...BUT SNOW MAY
MIX IN ACROSS THE INTERIOR AT NGT. NE-N WINDS 15-20G25-35KT.
.SUNDAY...VFR. NW WINDS 15-20G25-30KT.
.MONDAY...VFR. WEST WINDS 5-10 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS AROUND LONG ISLAND
WILL RESULT IN WINDS 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH FRIDAY. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION TO THIS IS POSSIBLY OVER THE FAR EASTERN COASTAL OCEAN
WATERS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WHERE NE FLOW COULD STRENGTHEN TO UP
TO 15 KT. AS A RESULT...SUB-SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON
ALL MARINE ZONES THROUGH FRIDAY.

SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ON ALL WATERS FROM FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING AS NE FLOW STRENGTHENS...THEN EXPECT
NORTHERLY GALES ON THE OCEAN BY SAT AFTERNOON...AND N-NW GALES ON
ALL WATERS - ESPECIALLY THE OCEAN AND THE ERN SOUND/BAYS SAT NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FROM SUNDAY
NIGHT ON...WITH SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON THE SOUND/HARBOR/BAYS BY MON
MORNING...AND ON THE OCEAN BY MON NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AT MOST A
FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL FRIDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY
ACROSS LONG ISLAND.

RAINFALL FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN UNDER A HALF INCH WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS GENERALLY ACROSS
THE COASTAL AREAS. NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC IMPACT IS EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...JC/MALOIT







000
FXUS61 KALY 300841
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
442 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE FAIR AND SEASONABLY COOL
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. COLDER AIR WILL
ARRIVE DURING THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG STORM FORMS WELL OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. THE COLDER AIR WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 415 AM...STLT PICS SHOW CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT FOR EXTREME SOUTHEAST AREAS.
THE CLOUD BAND OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY BREAK UP TODAY AND ALLOW
FOR AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY SKIES BY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO
FORECAST 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS THIS MORNING OVER THE SCHOHARIE AND
MOHAWK VALLEYS AND THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. HIGHS TODAY WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HOLD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY. GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY...WITH SOME AREAS OF MOSTLY CLEAR LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY. BY LATE FRIDAY CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL TRACK WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A STRONG SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO
DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND THEN TRACK NORTHEAST. ANY
SIGNIFICANT PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE LOW WILL MISS THE
ALBANY FORECAST AREA...BUT THERE WILL BE SOME RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL
TROF...AND HAVE FORECAST 30 TO 50 PERCENT POPS DURING THIS PERIOD.

LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. HIGHS SATURDAY
IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES A CHILLY START TO CLOSE THE
WEEKEND..BUT THEN MODERATING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID WEEK BEFORE
THE NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES.  THE WPC GUIDANCE WAS FAVORED IN THE
LONG TERM.  THE ECMWF...GFS...AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT WITH WPC.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...IMPRESSIVE H500 UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
OVER THE ERN CONUS.  SIGNIFICANT OCEANIC CYCLONE LOOKS TO STAY FAR
ENOUGH OFFSHORE FOR MINIMAL IMPACT IN TERMS OF PCPN...BUT IT WILL BE
COLD AND WINDY.  THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT SNOW
SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR FILTERS IN.  ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE LIGHT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO M20S OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...AND U20S TO L30S IN THE VALLEYS.  BY SUNDAY...THE SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS BETWEEN THE OCEAN CYCLONE AND A SFC
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE TN VALLEY.  BRISK N/NW WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH
AND H850 TEMPS OF -4C TO -8C WILL MAY IT FEEL LIKE WINTER! EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE 30S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND U30S TO M40S IN THE
VALLEYS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...FAIR AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTHEAST INTO THE FCST AREA FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC REGION.  A VERY COLD NIGHT IS
EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.  MONDAY...TEMPS CREEP CLOSER TO
NORMAL EARLY NOVEMBER READINGS BUT STILL WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL BY 5
DEGREES OR SO WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO L50S...THOUGH A FEW
U30S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SRN DACKS.  A WARM FRONT STARTS TO APPROACH
FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AND OHIO VALLEY WITH AN INCREASE
IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MON NIGHT.  TEMPS WILL BE A TAD WARMER IN THE
30S.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...A NICE DAY IS EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH A
MILDER AIR MASS BUILDING IN ACROSS THE REGION.  IN THE WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN...H850 TEMPS RISE BACK TO +8C TO +12C.  EXPECT
HIGHS TEMPS TO BE CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WED WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS.  TEMPS SHOULD STILL RUN AT
NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL READINGS FOR THE MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DOMINATE TODAY...AS A SFC TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING.

VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HRS AT KGFL/KALB/KPSF
WITH BKN-OVC CONDITIONS IN THE 6-8 KFT AGL RANGE LOWERING TO 4-6
KFT BY THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.  THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
KPOU WHERE VLIFR/LIFR FOG AND STRATUS FORMED IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY YESTERDAY.  THE LIFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LAST
UNTIL 10-12Z...THEN SLOWLY RISE TO IFR VSBYS AND VFR CIGS BTWN 12Z-
14Z. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN THEREAFTER. EXPECT WIDESPREAD
STRATOCUMULUS IN THE AFTERNOON...AND THEN START TO DISSIPATE EARLY
THIS EVENING WITH JUST SOME SCT CUMULUS AND SCT-BKN CIRRUS AROUND.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM THIS MORNING...AND THEN INCREASE TO
4-8 KTS FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AT 5 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...ESP AT
NIGHT WHEN VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT. WINDS WILL NE NORTHWEST
AT 5 TO 15 MPH TODAY...AND LIGHT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRODUCES SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

ANY PRECIP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT...AND BASIN
AVERAGE AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW RIVER LEVELS TO HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...GJM/FRUGIS











000
FXUS61 KOKX 300808 CCA
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
407 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY. ..THEN TRACKS
NORTHEAST TO EAST OF CAPE COD BY SATURDAY EVENING. MEANWHILE A
SECONDARY LOW FORMS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY...THEN
TRACKS NORTHEAST TO THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES BY SUNDAY
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS STORM THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT...THEN MOVES OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT APPROACHING ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PATCHY FOG...LOCALLY DENSE HAS DEVELOPED MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS TO THE W/N OF NYC METRO. HAVE ADDRESSED WITH AN SPS. DO
THINK IT WILL DISSIPATE AS LOWER DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO ADVECT
IN...BY 11Z. HAVE SEEN SOME IMPROVEMENT IN VISIBILITIES WITH 7Z
OBSERVATIONS IN SUPPORT OF THIS LINE OF THINKING...SO WILL EXTEND
SPS UNTIL 11Z.

OTHERWISE...PASSAGE OF 700-500 HPA TROUGH AXIS TODAY WILL ONLY
PRODUCE SOME SCT CLOUDS AS AROUND 10KT OR DOWNSLOPE BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW SERVES AS A LIMITING FACTOR.

FOR HIGHS TODAY USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 900-875 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
A 850-500 HPA SHORTWAVE RIDGE CROSSES THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH
ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE PROMOTING MINIMAL CLOUD COVER AND
DIMINISHING WINDS. AS A RESULT...HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS LOWER OF
MET/MAV/ECS GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES FOR LOWS. NOT
QUITE CERTAIN ENOUGH OF A COMPLETELY CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS TO
GO COLDER AT THIS TIME. LOWS SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL.

A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS NNW FROM COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING OFF
THE VA/NC COAST FRIDAY TOWARDS LONG ISLAND. THIS COUPLED WITH A
PASSING WEAK 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE WARRANTS INCREASING CLOUD COVER
OVER THE ENTIRE REGION AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR -SHRA OVER
MAINLY LONG ISLAND FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR HIGHS FRIDAY...A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 900-875 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGIZES A SURFACE LOW EMERGING OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. MODEL CONSENSUS AND THEIR
RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEANS STRENGTHEN THIS STORM AS IT HEADS
NE...PASSING SE OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. A SURFACE TROUGH FIRST BRINGS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
TO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. AT LEAST CHANCE POPS REMAIN ON SATURDAY
WITH SOME MID LEVEL LIFT...ALTHOUGH MODEL QPF OUTPUT SUGGESTS
THAT COASTAL AREAS WARRANT LIKELY POPS...BEING CLOSER TO THE
STORM CENTER. CHANCES OF RAINFALL THEN DIMINISH THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT AS THE STORM SHIFTS FARTHER OUT TO SEA...WITH DRY WEATHER
BY SUNDAY MORNING.

THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST AN ALL RAIN EVENT. BY THE TIME FREEZING
LEVELS AND WET BULB ZEROES LOWER ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A MIX OF RAIN
AND SNOW...PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE ENDED OR WILL JUST ABOUT TO
END. THIS WOULD BE THE CASE FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1000 FT NORTH
AND WEST OF THE CITY. WITH SUCH LIMITED COVERAGE OF A LOW
PROBABILITY EVENT...HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION OF SNOW FROM THE
GRIDS.

WINDS WILL END UP BEING THE BIGGER STORY...AND WILL BE AT THEIR
STRONGEST FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. COULD
GET CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA AT SOME POINT DURING THIS
PERIOD...SO WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IS
EXPECTED TO BE DRY. HIGHS ON SUNDAY AVERAGING AT LEAST 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...WITH WIND CHILL VALUES AROUND 30 DEGREES FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE MORNING. THE GROWING SEASON THEN PROBABLY ENDS
FOR MORE OF THE ZONES OUTSIDE OF THE CITY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS
AROUND THE FREEZING MARK. TEMPS THEN BEGIN THEIR CLIMB BACK
TOWARDS NORMAL ON MONDAY...BEFORE REACHING NEAR NORMAL ON TUESDAY
WITH A SW FLOW.

NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THEN ARRIVES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH A WARM FRONT PASSAGE FOLLOWED BY THE APPROACH OF A COLD
FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HI PRES BUILDS OVER THE METRO TODAY. LOW PRES BEGINS TO DEVELOP S
OF THE REGION FRI.

VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR FG WHICH COULD BRING THINGS
TO LIFR AT KSWF AND PERHAPS AT KHPN/KTEB. GREATEST LIKELIHOOD AT
KSWF WHERE A TEMPO WAS INCLUDED IN THE TAF.

MAINLY NW WINDS AT OR BELOW 10KT. SOME BACKING TO THE WNW THIS
AFTN...ESPECIALLY S COASTS. DIRECTION VEERS TO THE N OVERNIGHT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THU NGT...VFR.
.FRI...CIGS LOWER THRU THE DAY WITH MVFR POSSIBLE LATE.
.FRI NGT-SAT NGT...MVFR OR LOWER. PCPN MAINLY RAIN...BUT SNOW MAY
MIX IN ACROSS THE INTERIOR AT NGT. NE-N WINDS 15-20G25-35KT.
.SUNDAY...VFR. NW WINDS 15-20G25-30KT.
.MONDAY...VFR. WEST WINDS 5-10 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS AROUND LONG ISLAND
WILL RESULT IN WINDS 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH FRIDAY. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION TO THIS IS POSSIBLY OVER THE FAR EASTERN COASTAL OCEAN
WATERS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WHERE NE FLOW COULD STRENGTHEN TO UP
TO 15 KT. AS A RESULT...SUB-SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON
ALL MARINE ZONES THROUGH FRIDAY.

SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ON ALL WATERS FROM FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING AS NE FLOW STRENGTHENS...THEN EXPECT
NORTHERLY GALES ON THE OCEAN BY SAT AFTERNOON...AND N-NW GALES ON
ALL WATERS - ESPECIALLY THE OCEAN AND THE ERN SOUND/BAYS SAT NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FROM SUNDAY
NIGHT ON...WITH SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON THE SOUND/HARBOR/BAYS BY MON
MORNING...AND ON THE OCEAN BY MON NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AT MOST A
FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL FRIDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY
ACROSS LONG ISLAND.

RAINFALL FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN UNDER A HALF INCH WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS GENERALLY ACROSS
THE COASTAL AREAS. NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC IMPACT IS EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/JC
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/JC





000
FXUS61 KOKX 300757
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
357 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY. ..THEN TRACKS
NORTHEAST TO EAST OF CAPE COD BY SATURDAY EVENING. MEANWHILE A
SECONDARY LOW FORMS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY...THEN
TRACKS NORTHEAST TO THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES BY SUNDAY
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS STORM THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT...THEN MOVES OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT APPROACHING ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PATCHY FOG...LOCALLY DENSE HAS DEVELOPED MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS TO THE W/N OF NYC METRO. HAVE ADDRESSED WITH AN SPS. DO
THINK IT WILL DISSIPATE AS LOWER DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO ADVECT
IN...BY 11Z. HAVE SEEN SOME IMPROVEMENT IN VISIBILITIES WITH 7Z
OBSERVATIONS IN SUPPORT OF THIS LINE OF THINKING...SO WILL EXTEND
SPS UNTIL 11Z.

OTHERWISE...PASSAGE OF 700-500 HPA TROUGH AXIS TODAY WILL ONLY
PRODUCE SOME SCT CLOUDS AS AROUND 10KT OR DOWNSLOPE BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW SERVES AS A LIMITING FACTOR.

FOR HIGHS TODAY USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 900-875 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
A 850-500 HAP SHORTWAVE RIDGE CROSSES THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH
ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE PROMOTING MINIMAL CLOUD COVER AND
DIMINISHING WINDS. AS A RESULT...HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS LOWER OF
MET/MAV/ECS GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES FOR LOWS. NOT
QUITE CERTAIN ENOUGH OF A COMPLETELY CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS TO
GO COLDER AT THIS TIME. LOWS SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL.

A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS NNW FROM COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING OFF
THE VA/NC COAST FRIDAY TOWARDS LONG ISLAND. THIS COUPLED WITH A
PASSING WEAK 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE WARRANTS INCREASING CLOUD COVER
OVER THE ENTIRE REGION AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR -SHRA OVER
MAINLY LONG ISLAND FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR HIGHS FRIDAY...A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 900-875 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGIZES A SURFACE LOW EMERGING OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. MODEL CONSENSUS AND THEIR RESPECTIVE
ENSEMBLE MEANS STRENGTHEN THIS STORM AS IT HEADS NE...PASSING SE OF
THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A
SURFACE TROUGH FIRST BRINGS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT. AT LEAST CHANCE POPS REMAIN ON SATURDAY WITH SOME MID LEVEL
LIFT...ALTHOUGH MODEL QPF OUTPUT SUGGESTS THAT COASTAL AREAS WARRANT
LIKELY POPS...BEING CLOSER TO THE STORM CENTER. CHANCES OF RAINFALL
THEN DIMINISH THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE STORM SHIFTS FARTHER OUT
TO SEA...WITH DRY WEATHER BY SUNDAY MORNING.

THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST AN ALL RAIN EVENT. BY THE TIME FREEZING
LEVELS AND WET BULB ZEROES LOWER ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW...PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE ENDED OR WILL JUST ABOUT TO END. THIS WOULD BE
THE CASE FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1000 FT NORTH AND WEST OF THE CITY.
WITH SUCH LIMITED COVERAGE OF A LOW PROBABILITY EVENT...HAVE REMOVED
THE MENTION OF SNOW FROM THE GRIDS.

WINDS WILL END UP BEING THE BIGGER STORY...AND WILL BE AT THEIR
STRONGEST FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. COULD
GET CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA AT SOME POINT DURING THIS
PERIOD...SO WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IS EXPECTED
TO BE DRY. HIGHS ON SUNDAY AVERAGING AT LEAST 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...WITH WIND CHILL VALUES AROUND 30 DEGREES FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF THE MORNING. THE GROWING SEASON THEN PROBABLY ENDS FOR MORE OF
THE ZONES OUTSIDE OF THE CITY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS AROUND THE
FREEZING MARK. TEMPS THEN BEGIN THEIR CLIMB BACK TOWARDS NORMAL ON
MONDAY...BEFORE REACHING NEAR NORMAL ON TUESDAY WITH A SW FLOW.

NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THEN ARRIVES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH A WARM FRONT PASSAGE FOLLOWED BY THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT
ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HI PRES BUILDS OVER THE METRO TODAY. LOW PRES BEGINS TO DEVELOP S
OF THE REGION FRI.

VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR FG WHICH COULD BRING THINGS
TO LIFR AT KSWF AND PERHAPS AT KHPN/KTEB. GREATEST LIKELIHOOD AT
KSWF WHERE A TEMPO WAS INCLUDED IN THE TAF.

MAINLY NW WINDS AT OR BELOW 10KT. SOME BACKING TO THE WNW THIS
AFTN...ESPECIALLY S COASTS. DIRECTION VEERS TO THE N OVERNIGHT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THU NGT...VFR.
.FRI...CIGS LOWER THRU THE DAY WITH MVFR POSSIBLE LATE.
.FRI NGT-SAT NGT...MVFR OR LOWER. PCPN MAINLY RAIN...BUT SNOW MAY
MIX IN ACROSS THE INTERIOR AT NGT. NE-N WINDS 15-20G25-35KT.
.SUNDAY...VFR. NW WINDS 15-20G25-30KT.
.MONDAY...VFR. WEST WINDS 5-10 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS AROUND LONG ISLAND
WILL RESULT IN WINDS 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH FRIDAY. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION TO THIS IS POSSIBLY OVER THE FAR EASTERN COASTAL OCEAN
WATERS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WHERE NE FLOW COULD STRENGTHEN TO UP
TO 15 KT. AS A RESULT...SUB-SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON
ALL MARINE ZONES THROUGH FRIDAY.

SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ON ALL WATERS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SAT MORNING AS NE FLOW STRENGTHENS...THEN EXPECT NORTHERLY
GALES ON THE OCEAN BY SAT AFTERNOON...AND N-NW GALES ON ALL WATERS
- ESPECIALLY THE OCEAN AND THE ERN SOUND/BAYS SAT NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FROM SUNDAY NIGHT
ON...WITH SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON THE SOUND/HARBOR/BAYS BY MON
MORNING...AND ON THE OCEAN BY MON NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AT MOST A
FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL FRIDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY
ACROSS LONG ISLAND.

RAINFALL FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN UNDER A HALF INCH WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS GENERALLY ACROSS
THE COASTAL AREAS. NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC IMPACT IS EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/JC
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/JC







000
FXUS61 KBOX 300705
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
305 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS BEHIND THE PASSING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE THROUGH
THE PRE DAWN HOURS. SEASONABLE AND DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS INTO THE
END OF THE WEEK UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. A COASTAL STORM WILL LIKELY
DELIVER A GLANCING BLOW TO THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY...BUT THE OPPORTUNITY FOR A HIGHER IMPACT STILL EXISTS.
MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOLLOWS WITH A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND BY
NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

210 AM UPDATE...

LINE OF SHOWERS TENDING TO DISSIPATE AS IT SLOWLY SHIFTS SE ACROSS
THE OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET AT 06Z. SCT SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVER
THOSE AREAS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE THE LINE FINALLY PUSHES
E. BACK EDGE OF CLOUDS HAVE STEADILY PUSHED E. HOWEVER...WITH THE
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...TEMPS HAVE FALLEN CLOSE TO THE
LOWERING DEWPTS ACROSS S NH AND DOWN THE CT VALLEY ACROSS W MA. A
FEW SPOTS HAVE VSBYS BELOW 1/2SM IN THE USUAL SUSPECTS /KEEN AND
KORE/. MID LEVEL CLOUDS LINGER ACROSS RI/SE MA BUT SHOULD PUSH
OFFSHORE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.

TEMPS HAVE FALLEN TO THE MID AND UPPER 30S WHERE SKIES HAVE
CLEARED AND CALM WINDS...MAINLY ACROSS THE MID AND UPPER CT
VALLEY...RANGING TO THE LOWER-MID 50S WHERE CLOUDS REMAIN ON THE S
COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS AT 06Z. LIGHT PRES GRADIENT WILL
KEEP WINDS LIGHT THROUGH 12Z. DEWPTS WILL TAKE THEIR TIME FALLING
WITH THE LIGHT WINDS.

HAVE UPDATED NEAR TERM FORECAST TO BRING CONDITIONS CURRENT. MAIN
CHANGES WERE TO LOWER DEWPTS A BIT. SHORT RANGE MODELS NOT
HANDLING THE LOWER DEWPTS ALREADY IN THE CT VALLEY EXCEPT FOR SOME
OF THE NEAR TERM BIAS CORRECTED DATA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TODAY...

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD E. SUBSIDENCE AND SINKING AIR IN
CONTROL OF THE REGIONS WEATHER. WITH A COOLER AIRMASS CONTINUING TO
BUILD WITHIN THE LOW-LEVELS /H85 JUST BELOW THE FREEZING MARK/
EXPECT A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY-LAYER ALLOWING FOR DRIER AIR TO MIX-
DOWN /DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID-30S/ AND DEVELOPMENT OF A SCATTERED
CUMULUS DECK AROUND 5-6 KFT.

HIGHS AROUND THE 50S EXPECTED WHICH IS JUST ABOUT NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.

TONIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. COLD
AIRMASS BELOW FREEZING REMAINS ALOFT. A GOOD CASE FOR EFFECTIVE
RADIATIONAL COOLING...THAT IS IF CLOUDS DO NOT BECOME AN ISSUE.

CONSIDERING DEWPOINTS AROUND THE MID-30S ON THURSDAY...IT IS
POSSIBLE LOCATIONS COULD COOL BELOW THE CROSSOVER THRESHOLD IF THE
CONDITIONS ARE RIGHT AND WE ARE ALLOWED TO RADIATE OUT EFFECTIVELY.
BUT BENEATH CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH WHICH WEAK IMPULSES WILL GLIDE...
THERE IS ALWAYS THAT POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCEMENT OF MID-LEVEL LIFT AND
CONVERGENCE YIELDING A BLANKETING CLOUD BASE.

IF CONDITIONS REMAIN CLEAR...THERE IS ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO SPECULATE
THAT SHALLOW GROUND FOG WILL DEVELOP WHEREVER SOILS ARE SATURATED
/I.E. SWAMPY BOGS/. LOWS WOULD BOTTOM DOWN AROUND THE MID-30S...LOW-
30S FOR THOSE AREAS THAT RADIATE. WARMEST CONDITIONS ALONG THE
SHORES. BUT WILL GO CONSERVATIVE WITH THIS FORECAST CONSIDERING THE
POTENTIAL FOR MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECKS AND HOLD WITH LOWS AROUND THE
UPPER-30S. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR FROST / FREEZE HEADLINES MAY BE
NECESSARY FOR S/E COASTAL MA AND RI.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* COOL ON FRIDAY
* GLANCING BLOW FAVORED SAT/EARLY SUN BUT HIGHER IMPACT POSSIBLE
* BIGGEST CONCERN IS STRONG WINDS LATE SAT/SUN ESP CAPE COD
* ACCUMULATING SNOW IS STILL POSSIBLE BUT A RATHER LOW PROBABILITY
* MUCH MILDER WEATHER RETURNS BY NEXT TUE AND WED

DETAILS...

FRIDAY...

AN ELONGATED HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL
RESULT IN A RATHER CLOUDY/COOL DAY WITH EASTERLY WINDS. A SPOT
SHOWER AND PERHAPS EVEN SOME DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY WILL BE
DRY. HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S ELSEWHERE.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS QUITE LOW OVER THIS TIME.  ENSEMBLE
SENSITIVITY PLOTS SHOW THE ENERGY RESPONSIBLE FOR DEVELOPING THE
EVENTUAL STORM IS STILL NEAR THE ARCTIC CIRCLE.  THIS LEAVES PLENTY
OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK/STRENGTH AND IMPACTS ACROSS THE REGION.

WITH THAT SAID...CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS A GLANCING BLOW AND
NOT A DIRECT HIT FOR OUR REGION.  THE BIGGEST CONCERN RIGHT NOW IS
FOR STRONG TO PERHAPS DAMAGING WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CAPE
AND NANTUCKET.  THERE ARE TWO MAIN SHORTWAVES INVOLVED IN STORM
FORMATION. INITIALLY...MOST MODELS FORM AN ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OR EVEN TWO CENTERS BEFORE CONSOLIDATING INTO ONE STORM.
CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS HAPPENS TOO LATE FOR A
SIGNIFICANT RAIN/SNOW EVENT IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

A BIG CAVEAT IS THAT THIS EVENT IS CURRENTLY PROGGED BETWEEN 72 AND
96 HOUR OUT...WHICH IS QUITE A BIT OF TIME IN THE MODEL WORLD.  IF
THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE IS WEAKER THAN CURRENTLY DEPICTED...THE STORM
WILL INTENSIFY EARLIER AND CLOSER TO THE COAST.  WHILE THIS IS A
LOWER PROBABILITY AT THIS POINT...ITS CERTAINLY IN THE REALM OF
POSSIBILITIES.  WHAT EVER HAPPENS...WE CAN SAY THAT EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND WILL HAVE MORE OF AN IMPACT THAN THE INTERIOR.

PTYPE AND TIMING...

A LOT OF THIS WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAR WEST THE MAIN PRECIPITATION
SHIELD REACHES.  INITIALLY...ALL PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM
OF RAIN OR JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY.  IN FACT...MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN EASTERN NEW ENGLAND...WITH JUST A FEW
SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS IF THE CURRENT TRACK VERIFIES. IF
THE TRACK SHIFTS WEST AND WE END UP GETTING INTO HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION SAT NIGHT AND EARLY SUN...DYNAMIC COOLING WOULD CHANGE
PTYPE TO SNOW AT LEAST IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  AGAIN...BASED ON
EXPECTED TRACK...ACCUMULATING SNOW IS A RATHER LOW PROBABILITY...BUT
STILL CAN/T BE RULED OUT. WHAT EVER HAPPENS...MOST PRECIPITATION
SHOULD HAVE EXITED THE REGION BY MID MORNING ON SUNDAY.

STRONG WINDS...

STRONG WINDS ARE THE ONE THING WE ARE FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT WILL
DEVELOP.  EXCELLENT MIXING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE STORM SHOULD
RESULT IN NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH DEVELOPING
LATE SAT AND ESPECIALLY SUN AS MIXING INCREASES.  ACROSS THE CAPE
AND NANTUCKET...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE STORM MAY SEE A PERIOD
OF 50 TO 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.  WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH
OF THE REGION AND PERHAPS HIGH WIND WATCHES/WARNINGS FOR THE CAPE
AND NANTUCKET.  GIVEN MANY TREES STILL HAVE AT LEAST SOME LEAVES ON
THEM...THE RISK FOR TREE DAMAGE AND ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES WILL BE
ENHANCED.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

DEEP UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE REGION AND WE ENTER AN AREA
OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING.  A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND EXPECTED WITH
SOME OF THE COASTAL PLAIN POSSIBLY SEEING HIGHS BREAK 60 BY TUE OR
WED. MAINLY DRY WEATHER OVER THIS TIME...BUT A SPOT SHOWER OR TWO IS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH
TONIGHT...THEN MODERATE CONFIDENCE FRIDAY.

THROUGH 12Z...MAINLY VFR. PATCHY FOG ACROSS CT VALLEY OF SW NH AND
W MA WITH LOCAL IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS AT NORMALLY PRONE AREAS
THROUGH 12Z. LOW PROB OF LOCAL MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS ACROSS
INTERIOR E MA INTO NE CT BETWEEN 08Z-12Z.

TODAY...MVFR-IFR VSBYS IMPROVE BY 14Z ACROSS CT VALLEY...OTHERWISE
VFR. SCT-BKN CLOUDS 4-5KFT FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...VFR. INCREASING CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT. MAY SEE LOCAL
MVFR-IFR ACROSS SW NH INTO NW MA LATE. SHALLOW PATCHY GROUND FOG
POSSIBLE AT PRONE TERMINALS.

FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. WINDS SHIFT TO E-NE DURING DAY...INCREASING
ALONG COAST TO 10-15 KT WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 KT LATE IN DAY.
MAY SEE MVFR CIGS DEVELOP ALONG E COAST TERMINALS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WIDELY SCT SHOWERS ALONG S COAST POSSIBLE LATE.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR TO START BUT ONSHORE FLOW
MAY RESULT IN MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING. A SPOT SHOWER OR TWO POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON UNCERTAINTY OF
TRACK/STRENGTH AND TIMING OF COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.  MOST
LIKELY SCENARIO IS VFR TO BE MIXED IN AT TIMES WITH MVFR SAT INTO
SAT NIGHT. LOWER CONDITIONS MOST LIKELY AT THE COAST WITH RAIN OR
SCATTERED SHOWERS.  LOW PROBABILITY FOR A CHANGE TO SNOW AT THE END.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR BY SUNDAY...BUT NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS EXPECTED.  STRONGEST WINDS CAPE AND
NANTUCKET WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS POSSIBLE.

MONDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 12Z...LEFTOVER 5-6 FT SEAS AND GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL
DIMINISH TOWARD DAYBREAK.

TODAY...LEFTOVER 5 FT SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS E AND S OF CAPE COD
SHOULD SUBSIDE BY MID MORNING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS
BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

TONIGHT...LIGHT NE WINDS AND SEAS UP TO 3 FT.

FRIDAY...WINDS BECOME E-NE BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA. SEAS SLOWLY INCREASE TO 3 FT ON SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THOUGH MONDAY...

***STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS AND 20 FOOT SEAS POSSIBLE LATE SAT INTO
 SUNDAY ACROSS THE OPEN ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF MASSACHUSETTS***

FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. INCREASING NE WINDS. GUSTS UP TO
25-30 KT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 5 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  HIGH IMPACT MARINE EVENT
EXPECTED.  WHILE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING
OF COASTAL LOW PRESSURE...GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS ACROSS
MOST WATERS ARE PRETTY MUCH A SLAM DUNK LATE SAT INTO SUN.  IN
FACT...DECENT CHANCE IN A PERIOD OF STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS WITH 20
FOOT SEAS ACROSS THE OPEN ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF MASSACHUSETTS.
EXACT WIND SPEEDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS WILL DEPEND UPON THE EXACT
TRACK/INTENSITY OF COASTAL LOW PRESSURE...BUT APPEARS THERE IS A
GOOD CHANCE OF A HIGH IMPACT MARINE EVENT.  A MARINE WEATHER
STATEMENT WAS ISSUED TO ADDRESS THESE CONCERNS.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  NORTHWEST SCA WIND GUSTS AND SEAS
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE MUCH OF THE DAY WITH GOOD MIXING IN THE COLD
AIR ADVECTION PATTERN.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES ARE NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE LATE SAT INTO SUN.
NONETHELESS...THERE IS AT LEAST A LOW PROBABILITY FOR MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING/EROSION ALONG THE EASTERN MA COAST AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF
THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET.  THE CONCERN IS FOR THE EARLY MORNING HIGH
TIDE ON SUNDAY.  IF WE END UP REALIZING 20 FOOT SEAS OVER THE OPEN
OCEAN AND NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS...THERE COULD BE
SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND EROSION.  SOME OF THE HOT SPOTS
WOULD BE SALISBURY AND PLUM ISLAND...HULL...SCITUATE AND PERHAPS
SANDWICH HARBOR AND NANTUCKET HARBOR.  AGAIN...IT WILL DEPEND ON
EXACT WIND SPEEDS/WAVE HEIGHTS OUT OVER THE OCEAN DURING THE EARLY
MORNING SUNDAY HIGH TIDE CYCLE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...EVT
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...FRANK/EVT
MARINE...FRANK/EVT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...STAFF




000
FXUS61 KALY 300559
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
159 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COOLER AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. SEASONABLE
WEATHER WILL BE IN PLACE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...BEFORE EVEN COLDER
AIR ARRIVES OVER THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR SOME
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 115 AM...HAVE ONLY MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY
TEMP GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...ESP FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.
CLOUDS MAY HANG AROUND ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY...AND EASTERN CATSKILLS WHERE A FEW LINGERING RAIN
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT THANKS TO THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PICKING UP SOME MOISTURE OFF LAKE ONTARIO AND LAKE ERIE.
OTHERWISE...MOST AREAS SHOULD BE DRY.

TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY SEASONABLE...AS COLD AIR ADVECTION STARTS TO
BRING COOLER CANADIAN AIR INTO THE AREA. MIN TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MAINLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.

A COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THURSDAY. THIS WILL
KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S FOR VALLEY AREAS...WITH 40S
ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN. WITH THE NW FLOW IN PLACE...SOME CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED...WITH MANY AREAS TURNING OUT MOSTLY CLOUDY. THERE
MAY BE A LINGERING EARLY MORNING SHOWER OVER THE MOHAWK VALLEY DUE
TO THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE EARLY IN THE DAY...OTHERWISE
IT LOOKS TO BE DRY ACROSS THE REGION.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING
AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE AREA. TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE
30S FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S FOR
FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ON
THURSDAY NIGHT...SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY ONCE AGAIN FOR
FRIDAY...AS A SHARPLY DIGGING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY.

THE BEST FORCING WILL GENERALLY BE TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT WE CANNOT RULE OUT SOME RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...ESP LATE. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING ANY SNOW
WILL BE ABOVE 2000 FEET. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOW 40S FOR VALLEY AREAS...WITH LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE
HIGH TERRAIN. PRECIP AMOUNTS LOOK VERY LIGHT...JUST A FEW
HUNDREDTHS AT MOST...SO ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION AT THE HIGH
ELEVATIONS WILL BE LIMITED TO A DUSTING OR LESS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM AND AN OCEAN STORM WILL BE IN FOCUS FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IMPACTING
FAR NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FA ON TUESDAY. IN BETWEEN THESE EVENTS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE FA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...A DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DROP
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THE NORTHERN APPALACHIANS AS A
COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS WELL EAST OF DELMARVA. THE LACK OF PHASING OF
THE SYSTEMS WILL KEEP THE BULK OF THE PCPN EAST OF THE FA. ALTHOUGH
SOME MINOR PCPN ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE CLIPPER TYPE
SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH AXIS. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH JUST
CHANCE POPS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WHILE IT WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT...LACK OF QPF LIKELY TO PRODUCE ONLY
A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHS
ON SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST TO
AROUND 50 SOUTHEAST. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FA FROM THE OHIO VALLEY BY
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND SLIDES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD LATE MONDAY
NIGHT. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE BLUSTERY DAY WITH STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS
ACROSS THE FA AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS BETWEEN THE
COASTAL SYSTEM AND HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN
THE 20S. HIGHS ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S
NORTHWEST TO MID 40S SOUTHEAST WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 20S
TO LOWER 30S.

ON TUESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES AND THE SOUTHEAST EDGE OF THE PCPN MAY JUST BRUSH THE
FAR NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FA. EXPECT HIGHS ON TUESDAY TO BE
MILDER AS A SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE FA OUT AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 40S
NORTHWEST TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DOMINATE TODAY...AS A SFC TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING.

VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HRS AT KGFL/KALB/KPSF
WITH BKN-OVC CONDITIONS IN THE 6-8 KFT AGL RANGE LOWERING TO 4-6
KFT BY THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.  THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
KPOU WHERE VLIFR/LIFR FOG AND STRATUS FORMED IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY YESTERDAY.  THE LIFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LAST
UNTIL 10-12Z...THEN SLOWLY RISE TO IFR VSBYS AND VFR CIGS BTWN 12Z-
14Z. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN THEREAFTER. EXPECT WIDESPREAD
STRATOCUMULUS IN THE AFTERNOON...AND THEN START TO DISSIPATE EARLY
THIS EVENING WITH JUST SOME SCT CUMULUS AND SCT-BKN CIRRUS AROUND.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM THIS MORNING...AND THEN INCREASE TO
4-8 KTS FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AT 5 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...ESP AT
NIGHT WHEN VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH ON
THURSDAY...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT ONCE AGAIN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

SOME RAIN SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WILL
CONTINUE OVER FAR EASTERN AREAS...BUT SHOULD BE MOVING EASTWARD
AND OUT OF THE AREA SOON. SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS FAR WESTERN PARTS OF THE
REGION...AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TOMORROW INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALLOWS FOR SOME
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR LATE FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.

ANY PRECIP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT...AND
BASIN AVERAGE AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE ABOUT TWO TENTHS OR LESS THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW RIVER LEVELS TO HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS








000
FXUS61 KALY 300534
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
134 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COOLER AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. SEASONABLE
WEATHER WILL BE IN PLACE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...BEFORE EVEN COLDER
AIR ARRIVES OVER THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR SOME
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 115 AM...HAVE ONLY MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY
TEMP GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...ESP FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.
CLOUDS MAY HANG AROUND ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY...AND EASTERN CATSKILLS WHERE A FEW LINGERING RAIN
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT THANKS TO THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PICKING UP SOME MOISTURE OFF LAKE ONTARIO AND LAKE ERIE.
OTHERWISE...MOST AREAS SHOULD BE DRY.

TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY SEASONABLE...AS COLD AIR ADVECTION STARTS TO
BRING COOLER CANADIAN AIR INTO THE AREA. MIN TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MAINLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.

A COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THURSDAY. THIS WILL
KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S FOR VALLEY AREAS...WITH 40S
ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN. WITH THE NW FLOW IN PLACE...SOME CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED...WITH MANY AREAS TURNING OUT MOSTLY CLOUDY. THERE
MAY BE A LINGERING EARLY MORNING SHOWER OVER THE MOHAWK VALLEY DUE
TO THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE EARLY IN THE DAY...OTHERWISE
IT LOOKS TO BE DRY ACROSS THE REGION.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING
AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE AREA. TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE
30S FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S FOR
FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ON
THURSDAY NIGHT...SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY ONCE AGAIN FOR
FRIDAY...AS A SHARPLY DIGGING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY.

THE BEST FORCING WILL GENERALLY BE TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT WE CANNOT RULE OUT SOME RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...ESP LATE. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING ANY SNOW
WILL BE ABOVE 2000 FEET. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOW 40S FOR VALLEY AREAS...WITH LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE
HIGH TERRAIN. PRECIP AMOUNTS LOOK VERY LIGHT...JUST A FEW
HUNDREDTHS AT MOST...SO ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION AT THE HIGH
ELEVATIONS WILL BE LIMITED TO A DUSTING OR LESS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM AND AN OCEAN STORM WILL BE IN FOCUS FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IMPACTING
FAR NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FA ON TUESDAY. IN BETWEEN THESE EVENTS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE FA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...A DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DROP
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THE NORTHERN APPALACHIANS AS A
COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS WELL EAST OF DELMARVA. THE LACK OF PHASING OF
THE SYSTEMS WILL KEEP THE BULK OF THE PCPN EAST OF THE FA. ALTHOUGH
SOME MINOR PCPN ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE CLIPPER TYPE
SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH AXIS. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH JUST
CHANCE POPS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WHILE IT WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT...LACK OF QPF LIKELY TO PRODUCE ONLY
A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHS
ON SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST TO
AROUND 50 SOUTHEAST. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FA FROM THE OHIO VALLEY BY
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND SLIDES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD LATE MONDAY
NIGHT. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE BLUSTERY DAY WITH STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS
ACROSS THE FA AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS BETWEEN THE
COASTAL SYSTEM AND HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN
THE 20S. HIGHS ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S
NORTHWEST TO MID 40S SOUTHEAST WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 20S
TO LOWER 30S.

ON TUESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES AND THE SOUTHEAST EDGE OF THE PCPN MAY JUST BRUSH THE
FAR NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FA. EXPECT HIGHS ON TUESDAY TO BE
MILDER AS A SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE FA OUT AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 40S
NORTHWEST TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD
AS A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT SLIDES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD LATE
THIS EVENING AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY.

TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. WITH A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND WEAK
UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALOFT...CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE TAF
SITES AROUND 3-5 KFT THROUGH 15Z-20Z AFT WHICH SKIES WILL BECOME
SCT035. THE CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE FIRST AT KPOU AND LAST AT KPSF.
WINDS WILL BE WEST/NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 5 KNOTS TONIGHT INCREASING
TO 5-10 KNOTS THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...ESP AT
NIGHT WHEN VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH ON
THURSDAY...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT ONCE AGAIN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

SOME RAIN SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WILL
CONTINUE OVER FAR EASTERN AREAS...BUT SHOULD BE MOVING EASTWARD
AND OUT OF THE AREA SOON. SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS FAR WESTERN PARTS OF THE
REGION...AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TOMORROW INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALLOWS FOR SOME
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR LATE FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.

ANY PRECIP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT...AND
BASIN AVERAGE AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE ABOUT TWO TENTHS OR LESS THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW RIVER LEVELS TO HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...GJM/FRUGIS/11
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...IRL/11
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS











000
FXUS61 KOKX 300530
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
130 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. AN ALBERTA
CLIPPER TYPE LOW WILL HEAD SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE
CAROLINA COAST ON FRIDAY...WHILE ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE
SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THE FIRST LOW WILL PASS
TO THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...WHILE THE
SECOND INTENSIFIES AND ALSO PASSES TO THE SOUTHEAST FROM LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE
WEST LATER SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
PATCHY FOG...LOCALLY DENSE HAS DEVELOPED MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS TO THE W/N OF NYC METRO. HAVE ADDRESSED WITH AN SPS. DO
THINK IT WILL DISSIPATE AS LOWER DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO ADVECT
IN...SO ONLY HAVE SPS OUT THROUGH 4 AM. WILL REASSESS WITH NEXT
ISSUANCE.

OTHERWISE...MINOR CHANGES MADE THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST
TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

COOLER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
EAST OF THE REGION.

TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT AS COLDER AIR
MOVES IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS THROUGH THE DAY.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

MAV/MET TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND WAS ACCEPTED.
EXPECT HIGHS ON THURSDAY TO CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLD WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE
LOWER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS STILL IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A POTENT NORTHERN STREAM
SHORT WAVE...NOW OVER NUNAVUT IN NORTHERN CANADA...WILL DIVE SE TO THE
GREAT LAKES BY FRIDAY AND CARVE OUT A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH AND
SIGNIFICANT CLOSED LOW. THE CLOSED LOW WILL CONTINUE SE TO THE
CAROLINAS ON SAT...THEN PASS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WHILE ALSO
NEGATIVELY TILTING THE PARENT UPPER TROUGH.

THE APPROACH OF THIS COMBINATION OF UPPER SYSTEMS WILL PROMOTE WEAK
CYCLOGENESIS ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. AS THIS
LOW APPROACHES...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN EASTERLY AND BEGIN TO
MOISTEN ON FRI...AND A WEAK LEADING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
INTERACTING WITH A WEAK LOW LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING NW FROM THE
INCIPIENT OFFSHORE LOW TO WARRANT SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS MAINLY OVER LONG ISLAND BY LATE DAY FRI OR EARLY FRI
EVENING...THEN INCREASING POP TO CHANCE AND THEN LIKELY MOST
PLACES DURING THE DAY ON SAT AND CAT ACROSS ERN LONG ISLAND AS THE
OFFSHORE LOW MAKES ITS CLOSEST PASS.

THEN AS THE POTENT CLOSED LOW ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE PARENT UPPER
TROUGH...A STRONGER LOW SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST LATE DAY SAT INTO SAT EVENING...AND THEN HEAD NE...PASSING
OUTSIDE THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE
CLOSED LOW SHOULD REMAIN A SEPARATE ENTITY FROM THE LARGER
TROUGH...AND THIS LACK OF PHASING SHOULD PRECLUDE THE AREA FROM
SEEING HEAVY PRECIP...SO ACTUALLY HAVE DECREASING POP DURING SAT
NIGHT. ENOUGH COLD AIR SHOULD STILL POUR IN BEHIND THE LOW TO
POSSIBLY CAUSE ANY LINGERING PRECIP TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO
SNOW...BUT WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION. THE BIGGEST IMPACTS
FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A SHOT OF COLD AND WIND FROM SAT NIGHT
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT TEMPS TO BE ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE BLEND... WITH LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE 30S AREA-WIDE...THEN
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S ON SUNDAY AS WINDS GUST CLOSE TO 40
MPH...WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE 30S. TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD FALL
TO AT OR BELOW FREEZING EVERYWHERE EXCEPT NYC SUNDAY NIGHT.

AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS EARLY NEXT WEEK AND HEIGHTS SLOWLY
RISE ALOFT...EXPECT GRADUAL MODERATION...WITH TEMPS STILL BELOW
NORMAL MON-TUE...THEN REACHING NEAR NORMAL LEVELS ON WED AS A WARM
FRONT PASSES WELL TO THE NORTH. AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT MAY
BRING ISOLD SHOWERS ON WED.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HI PRES BUILDS OVER THE METRO TODAY. LOW PRES BEGINS TO DEVELOP S
OF THE REGION FRI.

VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR FG WHICH COULD BRING THINGS
TO LIFR AT KSWF AND PERHAPS AT KHPN/KTEB. GREATEST LIKELIHOOD AT
KSWF WHERE A TEMPO WAS INCLUDED IN THE TAF.

MAINLY NW WINDS AT OR BELOW 10KT. SOME BACKING TO THE WNW THIS
AFTN...ESPECIALLY S COASTS. DIRECTION VEERS TO THE N OVERNIGHT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THU NGT...VFR.
.FRI...CIGS LOWER THRU THE DAY WITH MVFR POSSIBLE LATE.
.FRI NGT-SAT NGT...MVFR OR LOWER. PCPN MAINLY RAIN...BUT SNOW MAY
MIX IN ACROSS THE INTERIOR AT NGT. NE-N WINDS 15-20G25-35KT.
.SUNDAY...VFR. NW WINDS 15-20G25-30KT.
.MONDAY...VFR. WEST WINDS 5-10 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
WIND AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT AS A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS OVER THE WATERS.

SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ON ALL WATERS FROM LATE FRI NIGHT
INTO SAT MORNING AS NE FLOW STRENGTHENS...THEN EXPECT NORTHERLY
GALES ON THE OCEAN BY SAT AFTERNOON...AND N-NW GALES ON ALL WATERS
ESPECIALLY THE OCEAN AND THE ERN SOUND/BAYS SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FROM SUNDAY NIGHT ON...WITH
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON THE SOUND/HARBOR/BAYS BY MON MORNING...AND ON THE
OCEAN BY MON NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY THROUGH FRIDAY.

LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
IF OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS CLOSER TO THE COAST SAT NIGHT...
EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND SE CT COULD SEE MORE SIGNIFICANT QPF
AMOUNTS - CLOSER TO 1/2 INCH. NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC IMPACT
EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/MET/BC/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/MET
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...MET/BC/GOODMAN
HYDROLOGY...MET/BC/GOODMAN










000
FXUS61 KBOX 300310
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1110 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS BEHIND THE PASSING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE THROUGH
THE PRE DAWN HOURS. SEASONABLE AND DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS INTO THE
END OF THE WEEK UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. A COASTAL STORM WILL LIKELY
DELIVER A GLANCING BLOW TO THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY...BUT THE OPPORTUNITY FOR A HIGHER IMPACT STILL EXISTS.
MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOLLOWS WITH A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND BY
NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

1040 PM UPDATE...
BAND OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO SHIFT STEADILY E AS SEEN ON LATEST
NE 88D REGIONAL RADAR LOOP. THE COLD FRONT IS ACTUALLY JUST E OF
CAPE COD AT 02Z...AS THE DEWPTS HAVE DROPPED AND WINDS HAVE
SHIFTED TO LIGHT N-NW ACROSS MOST OF THE CAPE EXCEPT NANTUCKET
WHICH SHOULD SHIFT IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

BAND OF SHOWERS TENDING TO BREAK APART ON THE SOUTHERN EXTENT AS
DRIER AIR WORKS IN. WILL STILL SEE SCT SHOWERS ACROSS E MA/S RI AS
WELL AS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS THROUGH MIDNIGHT OR SO...THEN
THE SHOWERS SHOULD SHIFT OFFSHORE. DEWPTS HAVE BEEN DROPPING
STEADILY AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND NOTING SAME TREND ACROSS THE
CAPE AND ISLANDS. DEWPTS HAVE DROPPED TO THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
BERKSHIRES INTO SW NH...AND WILL FILTER EASTWARD OVERNIGHT.

ALSO NOTING BACK EDGE OF CLOUDS WORKING E OUT OF SW NH/W MA ON
LATEST IR SATELLITE WHICH SHOULD ALSO PUSH E OVERNIGHT.

HAVE UPDATED POPS TO PUSH PRECIP OFFSHORE A BIT FASTER AS
SUGGESTED BY RADAR TRENDS AS WELL AS THE SKY COVER. REMAINDER OF
FORECAST LOOKED IN GOOD SHAPE BUT DID BRING CONDITIONS CURRENT.
MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP ACROSS E MA/RI INTO S CENTRAL NH
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE THE DEWPTS DROP ALLOWING FOR DRIER
AIR TO MOVE IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TODAY...

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD E. SUBSIDENCE AND SINKING AIR IN
CONTROL OF THE REGIONS WEATHER. WITH A COOLER AIRMASS CONTINUING TO
BUILD WITHIN THE LOW-LEVELS /H85 JUST BELOW THE FREEZING MARK/
EXPECT A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY-LAYER ALLOWING FOR DRIER AIR TO MIX-
DOWN /DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID-30S/ AND DEVELOPMENT OF A SCATTERED
CUMULUS DECK AROUND 5-6 KFT.

HIGHS AROUND THE 50S EXPECTED WHICH IS JUST ABOUT NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.

TONIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. COLD
AIRMASS BELOW FREEZING REMAINS ALOFT. A GOOD CASE FOR EFFECTIVE
RADIATIONAL COOLING...THAT IS IF CLOUDS DO NOT BECOME AN ISSUE.

CONSIDERING DEWPOINTS AROUND THE MID-30S ON THURSDAY...IT IS
POSSIBLE LOCATIONS COULD COOL BELOW THE CROSSOVER THRESHOLD IF THE
CONDITIONS ARE RIGHT AND WE ARE ALLOWED TO RADIATE OUT EFFECTIVELY.
BUT BENEATH CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH WHICH WEAK IMPULSES WILL GLIDE...
THERE IS ALWAYS THAT POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCEMENT OF MID-LEVEL LIFT AND
CONVERGENCE YIELDING A BLANKETING CLOUD BASE.

IF CONDITIONS REMAIN CLEAR...THERE IS ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO SPECULATE
THAT SHALLOW GROUND FOG WILL DEVELOP WHEREVER SOILS ARE SATURATED
/I.E. SWAMPY BOGS/. LOWS WOULD BOTTOM DOWN AROUND THE MID-30S...LOW-
30S FOR THOSE AREAS THAT RADIATE. WARMEST CONDITIONS ALONG THE
SHORES. BUT WILL GO CONSERVATIVE WITH THIS FORECAST CONSIDERING THE
POTENTIAL FOR MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECKS AND HOLD WITH LOWS AROUND THE
UPPER-30S. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR FROST / FREEZE HEADLINES MAY BE
NECESSARY FOR S/E COASTAL MA AND RI.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* COOL ON FRIDAY
* GLANCING BLOW FAVORED SAT/EARLY SUN BUT HIGHER IMPACT POSSIBLE
* BIGGEST CONCERN IS STRONG WINDS LATE SAT/SUN ESP CAPE COD
* ACCUMULATING SNOW IS STILL POSSIBLE BUT A RATHER LOW PROBABILITY
* MUCH MILDER WEATHER RETURNS BY NEXT TUE AND WED

DETAILS...

FRIDAY...

AN ELONGATED HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL
RESULT IN A RATHER CLOUDY/COOL DAY WITH EASTERLY WINDS. A SPOT
SHOWER AND PERHAPS EVEN SOME DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY WILL BE
DRY. HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S ELSEWHERE.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS QUITE LOW OVER THIS TIME.  ENSEMBLE
SENSITIVITY PLOTS SHOW THE ENERGY RESPONSIBLE FOR DEVELOPING THE
EVENTUAL STORM IS STILL NEAR THE ARCTIC CIRCLE.  THIS LEAVES PLENTY
OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK/STRENGTH AND IMPACTS ACROSS THE REGION.

WITH THAT SAID...CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS A GLANCING BLOW AND
NOT A DIRECT HIT FOR OUR REGION.  THE BIGGEST CONCERN RIGHT NOW IS
FOR STRONG TO PERHAPS DAMAGING WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CAPE
AND NANTUCKET.  THERE ARE TWO MAIN SHORTWAVES INVOLVED IN STORM
FORMATION. INITIALLY...MOST MODELS FORM AN ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OR EVEN TWO CENTERS BEFORE CONSOLIDATING INTO ONE STORM.
CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS HAPPENS TOO LATE FOR A
SIGNIFICANT RAIN/SNOW EVENT IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

A BIG CAVEAT IS THAT THIS EVENT IS CURRENTLY PROGGED BETWEEN 72 AND
96 HOUR OUT...WHICH IS QUITE A BIT OF TIME IN THE MODEL WORLD.  IF
THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE IS WEAKER THAN CURRENTLY DEPICTED...THE STORM
WILL INTENSIFY EARLIER AND CLOSER TO THE COAST.  WHILE THIS IS A
LOWER PROBABILITY AT THIS POINT...ITS CERTAINLY IN THE REALM OF
POSSIBILITIES.  WHAT EVER HAPPENS...WE CAN SAY THAT EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND WILL HAVE MORE OF AN IMPACT THAN THE INTERIOR.

PTYPE AND TIMING...

A LOT OF THIS WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAR WEST THE MAIN PRECIPITATION
SHIELD REACHES.  INITIALLY...ALL PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM
OF RAIN OR JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY.  IN FACT...MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN EASTERN NEW ENGLAND...WITH JUST A FEW
SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS IF THE CURRENT TRACK VERIFIES. IF
THE TRACK SHIFTS WEST AND WE END UP GETTING INTO HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION SAT NIGHT AND EARLY SUN...DYNAMIC COOLING WOULD CHANGE
PTYPE TO SNOW AT LEAST IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  AGAIN...BASED ON
EXPECTED TRACK...ACCUMULATING SNOW IS A RATHER LOW PROBABILITY...BUT
STILL CAN/T BE RULED OUT. WHAT EVER HAPPENS...MOST PRECIPITATION
SHOULD HAVE EXITED THE REGION BY MID MORNING ON SUNDAY.

STRONG WINDS...

STRONG WINDS ARE THE ONE THING WE ARE FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT WILL
DEVELOP.  EXCELLENT MIXING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE STORM SHOULD
RESULT IN NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH DEVELOPING
LATE SAT AND ESPECIALLY SUN AS MIXING INCREASES.  ACROSS THE CAPE
AND NANTUCKET...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE STORM MAY SEE A PERIOD
OF 50 TO 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.  WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH
OF THE REGION AND PERHAPS HIGH WIND WATCHES/WARNINGS FOR THE CAPE
AND NANTUCKET.  GIVEN MANY TREES STILL HAVE AT LEAST SOME LEAVES ON
THEM...THE RISK FOR TREE DAMAGE AND ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES WILL BE
ENHANCED.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

DEEP UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE REGION AND WE ENTER AN AREA
OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING.  A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND EXPECTED WITH
SOME OF THE COASTAL PLAIN POSSIBLY SEEING HIGHS BREAK 60 BY TUE OR
WED. MAINLY DRY WEATHER OVER THIS TIME...BUT A SPOT SHOWER OR TWO IS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 12Z...MAINLY VFR OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS
RESULTING IN LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS NEAR THE SOUTH COAST. BAND
OF SHOWERS ACROSS E MA WILL PUSH OFFSHORE BY 04Z-06Z. LOW PROB OF
LOCAL MVFR VSBYS IN BRIEF PATCHY FOG THROUGH 06Z-08Z ACROSS E
MA/RI/S CENTRAL NH TERMINALS BEFORE DRIER CONDITIONS ARRIVE.

TODAY...VFR. LIGHT W-WINDS. SCT CIGS 4-5 KFT ACROSS INTERIOR
TERMINALS.

TONIGHT...VFR. LIGHT/VRB WINDS. SKC. SHALLOW PATCHY GROUND FOG
POSSIBLE AT PRONE TERMINALS.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  VFR TO START BUT
ONSHORE FLOW MAY RESULT IN MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING FRI AFTERNOON AND
ESPECIALLY FRI NIGHT.  A SPOT SHOWER OR TWO IS POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON UNCERTAINTY OF
TRACK/STRENGTH AND TIMING OF COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.  MOST
LIKELY SCENARIO IS VFR TO BE MIXED IN AT TIMES WITH MVFR SAT INTO
SAT NIGHT. LOWER CONDITIONS MOST LIKELY AT THE COAST WITH RAIN OR
SCATTERED SHOWERS.  LOW PROBABILITY FOR A CHANGE TO SNOW AT THE END.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR BY SUNDAY...BUT NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS EXPECTED.  STRONGEST WINDS CAPE AND
NANTUCKET WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS POSSIBLE.

MONDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS ALREADY VEERING TO W-NW ACROSS NEAR SHORE WATERS AT 03Z.
AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN...WINDS WILL ALSO SHIFT ON THE OUTER WATERS
AND DIMINISH. SEAS REMAIN HIGH...UP TO 5-6 FT...BUT WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE. HAVE EXTENDED SMALL CRAFT ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS
THROUGH THE NIGHT...AS SEAS WILL BE A BIT SLOWER TO SUBSIDE.

LEFTOVER 5 FT SEAS MAY LINGER INTO THURSDAY MORNING BUT SHOULD
SUBSIDE BY MID MORNING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THOUGH MONDAY...

***STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS AND 20 FOOT SEAS POSSIBLE LATE SAT INTO
 SUNDAY ACROSS THE OPEN ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF MASSACHUSETTS***

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL RESULT IN
EASTERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 15 KNOTS.  GRADIENT WILL BE WEAK ENOUGH
THOUGH TO KEEP WINDS SPEEDS/SEAS WELL BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  HIGH IMPACT MARINE EVENT
EXPECTED.  WHILE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING
OF COASTAL LOW PRESSURE...GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS ACROSS
MOST WATERS ARE PRETTY MUCH A SLAM DUNK LATE SAT INTO SUN.  IN
FACT...DECENT CHANCE IN A PERIOD OF STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS WITH 20
FOOT SEAS ACROSS THE OPEN ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF MASSACHUSETTS.
EXACT WIND SPEEDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS WILL DEPEND UPON THE EXACT
TRACK/INTENSITY OF COASTAL LOW PRESSURE...BUT APPEARS THERE IS A
GOOD CHANCE OF A HIGH IMPACT MARINE EVENT.  A MARINE WEATHER
STATEMENT WAS ISSUED TO ADDRESS THESE CONCERNS.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  NORTHWEST SCA WIND GUSTS AND SEAS
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE MUCH OF THE DAY WITH GOOD MIXING IN THE COLD
AIR ADVECTION PATTERN.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES ARE NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE LATE SAT INTO SUN.
NONETHELESS...THERE IS AT LEAST A LOW PROBABILITY FOR MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING/EROSION ALONG THE EASTERN MA COAST AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF
THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET.  THE CONCERN IS FOR THE EARLY MORNING HIGH
TIDE ON SUNDAY.  IF WE END UP REALIZING 20 FOOT SEAS OVER THE OPEN
OCEAN AND NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS...THERE COULD BE
SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND EROSION.  SOME OF THE HOT SPOTS
WOULD BE SALISBURY AND PLUM ISLAND...HULL...SCITUATE AND PERHAPS
SANDWICH HARBOR AND NANTUCKET HARBOR.  AGAIN...IT WILL DEPEND ON
EXACT WIND SPEEDS/WAVE HEIGHTS OUT OVER THE OCEAN DURING THE EARLY
MORNING SUNDAY HIGH TIDE CYCLE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...FRANK/EVT
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...FRANK/SIPPRELL
MARINE...FRANK/SIPPRELL/EVT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...STAFF




000
FXUS61 KOKX 300307
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1107 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVED EAST OF THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
AN ALBERTA CLIPPER TYPE LOW WILL HEAD SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO THE CAROLINA COAST ON FRIDAY...WHILE ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS
OFF THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THE FIRST LOW
WILL PASS TO THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...WHILE THE SECOND INTENSIFIES AND ALSO PASSES TO THE
SOUTHEAST FROM LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST LATER SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
COOLER AND DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT EAST OF THE REGION...AS DOES THE AREA OF SHOWERS. UPDATED TO
REFLECT THE CURRENT TRENDS.

POST FRONTAL SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT AND EASTERN
LONG ISLAND CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND MOVE QUICKLY EAST. THE UPPER
TROUGH WAS MOVING A LITTLE FASTER THAN FORECAST AND HAVE ENDED THE
PRECIPITATION LATE TONIGHT. POPS REMAIN AT LOW CHANCE AND SLIGHT
CHANCE. TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT AS
COLDER AIR MOVES IN...IN A COUPLE OF HOURS TEMPERATURES WERE DOWN
AS MUCH AS 15 DEGREES. DEW POINTS ALSO HAVE FALLEN. WITH THE ONSET
OF THE COLDER AND DRIER AIR GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KT WERE OBSERVED AND
THEN ALSO QUICKLY DIMINISHED AS A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT MOVED
INTO THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS THROUGH THE DAY.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

MAV/MET TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND WAS ACCEPTED.
EXPECT HIGHS ON THURSDAY TO CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLD WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE
LOWER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS STILL IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A POTENT NRN STREAM
VORT...NOW OVER NUNAVUT IN NORTHERN CANADA...WILL DIVE SE TO THE
GREAT LAKES BY FRI AND CARVE OUT A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH AND
SIGNIFICANT CLOSED LOW. THE CLOSED LOW WILL CONTINUE SE TO THE
CAROLINAS ON SAT...THEN PASS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WHILE ALSO
NEGATIVELY TILTING THE PARENT UPPER TROUGH.

THE APPROACH OF THIS COMBO OF UPPER SYSTEMS WILL PROMOTE WEAK
CYCLOGENESIS ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. AS THIS
LOW APPROACHES...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN EASTERLY AND BEGIN TO
MOISTEN ON FRI...AND A WEAK LEADING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
INTERACTING WITH A WEAK LOW LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING NW FROM THE
INCIPIENT OFFSHORE LOW TO WARRANT SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS MAINLY OVER LONG ISLAND BY LATE DAY FRI OR EARLY FRI
EVENING...THEN INCREASING POP TO CHANCE AND THEN LIKELY MOST
PLACES DURING THE DAY ON SAT AND CAT ACROSS ERN LONG ISLAND AS THE
OFFSHORE LOW MAKES ITS CLOSEST PASS.

THEN AS THE POTENT CLOSED LOW ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE PARENT UPPER
TROUGH...A STRONGER LOW SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST LATE DAY SAT INTO SAT EVENING...AND THEN HEAD NE...PASSING
OUTSIDE THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE
CLOSED LOW SHOULD REMAIN A SEPARATE ENTITY FROM THE LARGER
TROUGH...AND THIS LACK OF PHASING SHOULD PRECLUDE THE AREA FROM
SEEING HEAVY PRECIP...SO ACTUALLY HAVE DECREASING POP DURING SAT
NIGHT. ENOUGH COLD AIR SHOULD STILL POUR IN BEHIND THE LOW TO
POSSIBLY CAUSE ANY LINGERING PRECIP TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO
SNOW...BUT WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION. THE BIGGEST IMPACTS
FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A SHOT OF COLD AND WIND FROM SAT NIGHT
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT TEMPS TO BE ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE BLEND... WITH LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE 30S AREA-WIDE...THEN
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S ON SUNDAY AS WINDS GUST CLOSE TO 40
MPH...WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE 30S. TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD FALL
TO AOB FREEZING EVERYWHERE EXCEPT NYC SUNDAY NIGHT.

AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS EARLY NEXT WEEK AND HEIGHTS SLOWLY
RISE ALOFT...EXPECT GRADUAL MODERATION...WITH TEMPS STILL BELOW
NORMAL MON-TUE...THEN REACHING NEAR NORMAL LEVELS ON WED AS A WARM
FRONT PASSES WELL TO THE NORTH. AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT MAY
BRING ISOLD SHOWERS ON WED.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT HAS PASSED EAST OF THE TERMINALS WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY BUILDING EAST THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A W-NW FLOW AT 5 TO 10 KT. WIND
DIRECTION IS FORECAST TO BE MAINLY RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC...WITH A
PERIOD THU AFTERNOON WHERE THE FLOW MAY BACK 20 TO 30 DEGREES.

VFR WITH A SCT-BKN CU 4-5 KFT ON THU.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...VFR.
.FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER LIKELY. PRECIP MAINLY
RAIN...BUT SNOW MAY MIX IN ACROSS THE INTERIOR SATURDAY NIGHT. NE-N
WINDS 15-20G25-30KT.
.SUNDAY...IMPROVING CONDS. NW WINDS 15-20G25-30KT.
.MONDAY...VFR. WEST WINDS 5-10 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT EAST OF
THE WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WIND AND SEAS WILL REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

SCA CONDS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ON ALL WATERS FROM LATE FRI NIGHT
INTO SAT MORNING AS NE FLOW STRENGTHENS...THEN EXPECT NORTHERLY
GALES ON THE OCEAN BY SAT AFTERNOON...AND N-NW GALES ON ALL WATERS
ESPECIALLY THE OCEAN AND THE ERN SOUND/BAYS SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
CONDS SHOULD THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FROM SUNDAY NIGHT ON...WITH
SUB-SCA CONDS ON THE SOUND/HARBOR/BAYS BY MON MORNING...AND ON THE
OCEAN BY MON NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LIGHT PRECIP EXPECTED FROM FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
IF OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS CLOSER TO THE COAST SAT NIGHT...
EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND SE CT COULD SEE MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
AMTS CLOSER TO 1/2 INCH. NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC IMPACT
EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BC/GOODMAN/MET
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...BC/GOODMAN/MET
HYDROLOGY...BC/GOODMAN/MET







000
FXUS61 KOKX 300136
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
936 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVED EAST OF THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
AN ALBERTA CLIPPER TYPE LOW WILL HEAD SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO THE CAROLINA COAST ON FRIDAY...WHILE ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS
OFF THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THE FIRST LOW
WILL PASS TO THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...WHILE THE SECOND INTENSIFIES AND ALSO PASSES TO THE
SOUTHEAST FROM LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST LATER SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
COOLER AND DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT EAST OF THE REGION...AS DOES THE AREA OF SHOWERS. UPDATED TO
REFLECT THE CURRENT TRENDS.

POST FRONTAL SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT AND EASTERN
LONG ISLAND CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND MOVE QUICKLY EAST. THE UPPER
TROUGH WAS MOVING A LITTLE FASTER THAN FORECAST AND HAVE ENDED THE
PRECIPITATION LATE TONIGHT. POPS REMAIN AT LOW CHANCE AND SLIGHT
CHANCE. TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT AS
COLDER AIR MOVES IN...IN A COUPLE OF HOURS TEMPERATURES WERE DOWN
AS MUCH AS 15 DEGREES. DEW POINTS ALSO HAVE FALLEN. WITH THE ONSET
OF THE COLDER AND DRIER AIR GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KT WERE OBSERVED AND
THEN ALSO QUICKLY DIMINISHED AS A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT MOVED
INTO THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS THROUGH THE DAY.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

MAV/MET TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND WAS ACCEPTED.
EXPECT HIGHS ON THURSDAY TO CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLD WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE
LOWER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS STILL IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A POTENT NRN STREAM
VORT...NOW OVER NUNAVUT IN NORTHERN CANADA...WILL DIVE SE TO THE
GREAT LAKES BY FRI AND CARVE OUT A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH AND
SIGNIFICANT CLOSED LOW. THE CLOSED LOW WILL CONTINUE SE TO THE
CAROLINAS ON SAT...THEN PASS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WHILE ALSO
NEGATIVELY TILTING THE PARENT UPPER TROUGH.

THE APPROACH OF THIS COMBO OF UPPER SYSTEMS WILL PROMOTE WEAK
CYCLOGENESIS ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. AS THIS
LOW APPROACHES...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN EASTERLY AND BEGIN TO
MOISTEN ON FRI...AND A WEAK LEADING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
INTERACTING WITH A WEAK LOW LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING NW FROM THE
INCIPIENT OFFSHORE LOW TO WARRANT SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS MAINLY OVER LONG ISLAND BY LATE DAY FRI OR EARLY FRI
EVENING...THEN INCREASING POP TO CHANCE AND THEN LIKELY MOST
PLACES DURING THE DAY ON SAT AND CAT ACROSS ERN LONG ISLAND AS THE
OFFSHORE LOW MAKES ITS CLOSEST PASS.

THEN AS THE POTENT CLOSED LOW ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE PARENT UPPER
TROUGH...A STRONGER LOW SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST LATE DAY SAT INTO SAT EVENING...AND THEN HEAD NE...PASSING
OUTSIDE THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE
CLOSED LOW SHOULD REMAIN A SEPARATE ENTITY FROM THE LARGER
TROUGH...AND THIS LACK OF PHASING SHOULD PRECLUDE THE AREA FROM
SEEING HEAVY PRECIP...SO ACTUALLY HAVE DECREASING POP DURING SAT
NIGHT. ENOUGH COLD AIR SHOULD STILL POUR IN BEHIND THE LOW TO
POSSIBLY CAUSE ANY LINGERING PRECIP TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO
SNOW...BUT WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION. THE BIGGEST IMPACTS
FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A SHOT OF COLD AND WIND FROM SAT NIGHT
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT TEMPS TO BE ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE BLEND... WITH LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE 30S AREA-WIDE...THEN
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S ON SUNDAY AS WINDS GUST CLOSE TO 40
MPH...WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE 30S. TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD FALL
TO AOB FREEZING EVERYWHERE EXCEPT NYC SUNDAY NIGHT.

AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS EARLY NEXT WEEK AND HEIGHTS SLOWLY
RISE ALOFT...EXPECT GRADUAL MODERATION...WITH TEMPS STILL BELOW
NORMAL MON-TUE...THEN REACHING NEAR NORMAL LEVELS ON WED AS A WARM
FRONT PASSES WELL TO THE NORTH. AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT MAY
BRING ISOLD SHOWERS ON WED.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT HAS PASSED EAST OF THE TERMINALS WITH A BRIEF PERIOD
OF GUSTY NW WINDS AND SPOTTY RAIN. WINDS MAY ACTUALLY BACK A BIT
THIS EVENING TO 270-290 AT 5-10KT AHEAD OF A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
BEFORE GOING BACK TO 320-330 BY 06Z.

BRIEF MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE AT KISP AND KGON EARLY THIS
EVENING...OTHERWISE VFR.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...VFR.
.FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER LIKELY. PRECIP MAINLY
RAIN...BUT SNOW MAY MIX IN ACROSS THE INTERIOR SATURDAY NIGHT. NE-N
WINDS 15-20G25-30KT.
.SUNDAY...IMPROVING CONDS. NW WINDS 15-20G25-30KT.
.MONDAY...VFR. WEST WINDS 5-10 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT EAST OF
THE WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WIND AND SEAS WILL REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

SCA CONDS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ON ALL WATERS FROM LATE FRI NIGHT
INTO SAT MORNING AS NE FLOW STRENGTHENS...THEN EXPECT NORTHERLY
GALES ON THE OCEAN BY SAT AFTERNOON...AND N-NW GALES ON ALL WATERS
ESPECIALLY THE OCEAN AND THE ERN SOUND/BAYS SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
CONDS SHOULD THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FROM SUNDAY NIGHT ON...WITH
SUB-SCA CONDS ON THE SOUND/HARBOR/BAYS BY MON MORNING...AND ON THE
OCEAN BY MON NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LIGHT PRECIP EXPECTED FROM FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
IF OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS CLOSER TO THE COAST SAT NIGHT...
EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND SE CT COULD SEE MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
AMTS CLOSER TO 1/2 INCH. NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC IMPACT
EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/GOODMAN/MET
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...BC/GOODMAN/MET
HYDROLOGY...BC/GOODMAN/MET






000
FXUS61 KALY 300125
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
925 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS AND A FEW LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY START TO
CLEAR OUT TONIGHT AS A COOLER AIR MASS WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE
REGION. SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL BE IN PLACE TOMORROW INTO
FRIDAY...BEFORE EVEN COLDER AIR ARRIVES OVER THE WEEKEND...ALONG
WITH THE CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 923 PM EDT...THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS IS PROGRESSING
ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK...AND SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT...ESP FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS. CLOUDS MAY HANG AROUND
ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...AND
EASTERN CATSKILLS WHERE A FEW LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT THANKS TO THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PICKING UP SOME
MOISTURE OFF LAKE ONTARIO AND LAKE ERIE. OTHERWISE...MOST AREAS
SHOULD BE DRY.

TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY SEASONABLE...AS COLD AIR ADVECTION STARTS TO
BRING COOLER CANADIAN AIR INTO THE AREA. MIN TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MAINLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.

A COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THURSDAY. THIS WILL
KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S FOR VALLEY AREAS...WITH 40S
ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN. WITH THE NW FLOW IN PLACE...SOME CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED...WITH MANY AREAS TURNING OUT MOSTLY CLOUDY. THERE
MAY BE A LINGERING EARLY MORNING SHOWER OVER THE MOHAWK VALLEY DUE
TO THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE EARLY IN THE DAY...OTHERWISE
IT LOOKS TO BE DRY ACROSS THE REGION.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING
AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE AREA. TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE
30S FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S FOR
FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ON
THURSDAY NIGHT...SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY ONCE AGAIN FOR
FRIDAY...AS A SHARPLY DIGGING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY.

THE BEST FORCING WILL GENERALLY BE TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT WE CANNOT RULE OUT SOME RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...ESP LATE. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING ANY SNOW
WILL BE ABOVE 2000 FEET. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOW 40S FOR VALLEY AREAS...WITH LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE
HIGH TERRAIN. PRECIP AMOUNTS LOOK VERY LIGHT...JUST A FEW
HUNDREDTHS AT MOST...SO ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION AT THE HIGH
ELEVATIONS WILL BE LIMITED TO A DUSTING OR LESS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM AND AN OCEAN STORM WILL BE IN FOCUS FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IMPACTING
FAR NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FA ON TUESDAY. IN BETWEEN THESE EVENTS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE FA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...A DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DROP
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THE NORTHERN APPALACHIANS AS A
COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS WELL EAST OF DELMARVA. THE LACK OF PHASING OF
THE SYSTEMS WILL KEEP THE BULK OF THE PCPN EAST OF THE FA. ALTHOUGH
SOME MINOR PCPN ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE CLIPPER TYPE
SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH AXIS. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH JUST
CHANCE POPS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WHILE IT WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT...LACK OF QPF LIKELY TO PRODUCE ONLY
A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHS
ON SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST TO
AROUND 50 SOUTHEAST. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FA FROM THE OHIO VALLEY BY
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND SLIDES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD LATE MONDAY
NIGHT. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE BLUSTERY DAY WITH STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS
ACROSS THE FA AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS BETWEEN THE
COASTAL SYSTEM AND HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN
THE 20S. HIGHS ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S
NORTHWEST TO MID 40S SOUTHEAST WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 20S
TO LOWER 30S.

ON TUESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES AND THE SOUTHEAST EDGE OF THE PCPN MAY JUST BRUSH THE
FAR NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FA. EXPECT HIGHS ON TUESDAY TO BE
MILDER AS A SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE FA OUT AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 40S
NORTHWEST TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD
AS A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT SLIDES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD LATE
THIS EVENING AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY.

TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. WITH A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND WEAK
UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALOFT...CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE TAF
SITES AROUND 3-5 KFT THROUGH 15Z-20Z AFT WHICH SKIES WILL BECOME SCT035.
THE CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE FIRST AT KPOU AND LAST AT KPSF.
WINDS WILL BE WEST/NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 5 KNOTS TONIGHT
INCREASING TO 5-10 KNOTS THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...ESP AT
NIGHT WHEN VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH ON
THURSDAY...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT ONCE AGAIN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

SOME RAIN SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WILL
CONTINUE OVER FAR EASTERN AREAS...BUT SHOULD BE MOVING EASTWARD
AND OUT OF THE AREA SOON. SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS FAR WESTERN PARTS OF THE
REGION...AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TOMORROW INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALLOWS FOR SOME
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR LATE FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.

ANY PRECIP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT...AND
BASIN AVERAGE AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE ABOUT TWO TENTHS OR LESS THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW RIVER LEVELS TO HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...IRL/11
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS








000
FXUS61 KOKX 300002
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
802 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVED EAST OF THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
AN ALBERTA CLIPPER TYPE LOW WILL HEAD SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO THE CAROLINA COAST ON FRIDAY...WHILE ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS
OFF THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THE FIRST LOW
WILL PASS TO THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...WHILE THE SECOND INTENSIFIES AND ALSO PASSES TO THE
SOUTHEAST FROM LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST LATER SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
POST FRONTAL SHOWERS ACROSS CONNECTICUT AND LONG ISLAND CONTINUES
TO WEAKEN AS THE UPPER SUPPORT REMAINS NORTH OF THE REGION. THE
UPPER TROUGH WAS MOVING A LITTLE FASTER THAN FORECAST AND HAVE
ENDED THE PRECIPITATION LATE TONIGHT. POPS REMAIN AT LOW CHANCE AND
SLIGHT CHANCE. TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT
AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN...IN A COUPLE OF HOURS TEMPERATURES WERE
DOWN AS MUCH AS 15 DEGREES. DEW POINTS ALSO HAVE FALLEN. WITH THE
ONSET OF THE COLDER AND DRIER AIR GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KT WERE
OBSERVED AND THEN ALSO QUICKLY DIMINISHED AS A WEAKER PRESSURE
GRADIENT MOVED INTO THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS THROUGH THE DAY.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

MAV/MET TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND WAS ACCEPTED.
EXPECT HIGHS ON THURSDAY TO CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLD WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE
LOWER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS STILL IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A POTENT NRN STREAM
VORT...NOW OVER NUNAVUT IN NORTHERN CANADA...WILL DIVE SE TO THE
GREAT LAKES BY FRI AND CARVE OUT A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH AND
SIGNIFICANT CLOSED LOW. THE CLOSED LOW WILL CONTINUE SE TO THE
CAROLINAS ON SAT...THEN PASS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WHILE ALSO
NEGATIVELY TILTING THE PARENT UPPER TROUGH.

THE APPROACH OF THIS COMBO OF UPPER SYSTEMS WILL PROMOTE WEAK
CYCLOGENESIS ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. AS THIS
LOW APPROACHES...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN EASTERLY AND BEGIN TO
MOISTEN ON FRI...AND A WEAK LEADING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
INTERACTING WITH A WEAK LOW LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING NW FROM THE
INCIPIENT OFFSHORE LOW TO WARRANT SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS MAINLY OVER LONG ISLAND BY LATE DAY FRI OR EARLY FRI
EVENING...THEN INCREASING POP TO CHANCE AND THEN LIKELY MOST
PLACES DURING THE DAY ON SAT AND CAT ACROSS ERN LONG ISLAND AS THE
OFFSHORE LOW MAKES ITS CLOSEST PASS.

THEN AS THE POTENT CLOSED LOW ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE PARENT UPPER
TROUGH...A STRONGER LOW SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST LATE DAY SAT INTO SAT EVENING...AND THEN HEAD NE...PASSING
OUTSIDE THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE
CLOSED LOW SHOULD REMAIN A SEPARATE ENTITY FROM THE LARGER
TROUGH...AND THIS LACK OF PHASING SHOULD PRECLUDE THE AREA FROM
SEEING HEAVY PRECIP...SO ACTUALLY HAVE DECREASING POP DURING SAT
NIGHT. ENOUGH COLD AIR SHOULD STILL POUR IN BEHIND THE LOW TO
POSSIBLY CAUSE ANY LINGERING PRECIP TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO
SNOW...BUT WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION. THE BIGGEST IMPACTS
FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A SHOT OF COLD AND WIND FROM SAT NIGHT
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT TEMPS TO BE ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE BLEND... WITH LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE 30S AREA-WIDE...THEN
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S ON SUNDAY AS WINDS GUST CLOSE TO 40
MPH...WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE 30S. TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD FALL
TO AOB FREEZING EVERYWHERE EXCEPT NYC SUNDAY NIGHT.

AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS EARLY NEXT WEEK AND HEIGHTS SLOWLY
RISE ALOFT...EXPECT GRADUAL MODERATION...WITH TEMPS STILL BELOW
NORMAL MON-TUE...THEN REACHING NEAR NORMAL LEVELS ON WED AS A WARM
FRONT PASSES WELL TO THE NORTH. AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT MAY
BRING ISOLD SHOWERS ON WED.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT HAS PASSED EAST OF THE TERMINALS WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF
GUSTY NW WINDS AND SPOTTY RAIN. WINDS MAY ACTUALLY BACK A BIT THIS
EVENING TO 270-290 AT 5-10KT AHEAD OF A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH BEFORE
GOING BACK TO 320-330 BY 06Z.

BRIEF MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE AT KISP AND KGON EARLY THIS
EVENING...OTHERWISE VFR.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...VFR.
.FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER LIKELY. PRECIP MAINLY
RAIN...BUT SNOW MAY MIX IN ACROSS THE INTERIOR SATURDAY NIGHT. NE-N
WINDS 15-20G25-30KT.
.SUNDAY...IMPROVING CONDS. NW WINDS 15-20G25-30KT.
.MONDAY...VFR. WEST WINDS 5-10 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS HAVE REMAINED BELOW 5 FT AS A COLD FRONT MOVED ACROSS THE
FORECAST WATERS EARLY THIS EVENING. JUST BEHIND THE FRONT WIND
GUSTS BRIEFLY REACHED ABOUT 25 KT...THEN QUICKLY DIMINISHED. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHNID THE COLD FRONT AND WIND AND SEAS
WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. THEREFORE THE ADVISORY HAS
BEEN CANCELLED.

TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE AREA WATERS
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY INTO
THE WATERS.

SCA CONDS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ON ALL WATERS FROM LATE FRI NIGHT
INTO SAT MORNING AS NE FLOW STRENGTHENS...THEN EXPECT NORTHERLY
GALES ON THE OCEAN BY SAT AFTERNOON...AND N-NW GALES ON ALL WATERS
ESPECIALLY THE OCEAN AND THE ERN SOUND/BAYS SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
CONDS SHOULD THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FROM SUNDAY NIGHT ON...WITH
SUB-SCA CONDS ON THE SOUND/HARBOR/BAYS BY MON MORNING...AND ON THE
OCEAN BY MON NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A COUPLE OF HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT. OTHERWISE DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO FRIDAY.

LIGHT PRECIP EXPECTED FROM FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
IF OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS CLOSER TO THE COAST SAT NIGHT...
EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND SE CT COULD SEE MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
AMTS CLOSER TO 1/2 INCH. NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC IMPACT
EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/GOODMAN/MET
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...BC/GOODMAN/MET
HYDROLOGY...BC/GOODMAN/MET








000
FXUS61 KBOX 292337
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
737 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

SHOWERS CONCLUDE BEHIND A COLD FRONT PUSHING OFFSHORE TONIGHT.
SEASONABLE AND DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS INTO THE END OF THE WEEK
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. A COASTAL STORM WILL LIKELY DELIVER A GLANCING
BLOW TO THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...BUT THE OPPORTUNITY
FOR A HIGHER IMPACT STILL EXISTS. MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOLLOWS WITH
A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND BY NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

735 PM UPDATE...

THE COLD HAS NOW PROGRESSED TO NEAR THE CAPE COD CANAL.  BAND OF
RAIN SHOWERS WAS LAGGING A BIT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT RESULTING IN SOME MID LEVEL LIFT. THE SHOWERS SHOULD NOT
LAST MORE THAN AN HOUR OR TWO IN A GIVEN LOCATION...BUT MOST
LOCATIONS WILL SEE MEASURABLE RAINFALL.  THE SHOWERS WERE NOW
LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL MA/NORTHEAST CONNECTICUT AND WILL REACH THE I-
95 CORRIDOR BETWEEN 830 AND 10 PM.  THE BAND OF SHOWERS WILL THEN BE
EXITING THE CAPE AND ISLANDS AFTER 2 OR 3 AM.  RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
BE RATHER LIGHT ACROSS THE REGION...MAINLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO LESS
THAN 0.15 INCHES.

MAIN TROUGH AXIS PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. LIKELY
BLANKET OF MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS AND WET WEATHER WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS MILD TOWARDS SHORES WITH LOWS AROUND THE MID-40S.
ELSEWHERE...GRADUAL CLEARING EXPECTED W TO E AS W-WINDS DRIVE COOLER
AND DRIER AIR ACROSS THE REGION. COOLEST CONDITIONS N AND W YET
WINDS /MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER/ WILL LIKELY LIMIT
EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECTING LOWS AROUND THE UPPER-30S.
MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP ACROSS SOEM OF THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD E. SUBSIDENCE AND SINKING AIR IN
CONTROL OF THE REGIONS WEATHER. WITH A COOLER AIRMASS CONTINUING TO
BUILD WITHIN THE LOW-LEVELS /H85 JUST BELOW THE FREEZING MARK/
EXPECT A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY-LAYER ALLOWING FOR DRIER AIR TO MIX-
DOWN /DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID-30S/ AND DEVELOPMENT OF A SCATTERED
CUMULUS DECK AROUND 5-6 KFT.

HIGHS AROUND THE 50S EXPECTED WHICH IS JUST ABOUT NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. COLD
AIRMASS BELOW FREEZING REMAINS ALOFT. A GOOD CASE FOR EFFECTIVE
RADIATIONAL COOLING...THAT IS IF CLOUDS DO NOT BECOME AN ISSUE.

CONSIDERING DEWPOINTS AROUND THE MID-30S ON THURSDAY...IT IS
POSSIBLE LOCATIONS COULD COOL BELOW THE CROSSOVER THRESHOLD IF THE
CONDITIONS ARE RIGHT AND WE ARE ALLOWED TO RADIATE OUT EFFECTIVELY.
BUT BENEATH CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH WHICH WEAK IMPULSES WILL GLIDE...
THERE IS ALWAYS THAT POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCEMENT OF MID-LEVEL LIFT AND
CONVERGENCE YIELDING A BLANKETING CLOUD BASE.

IF CONDITIONS REMAIN CLEAR...THERE IS ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO SPECULATE
THAT SHALLOW GROUND FOG WILL DEVELOP WHEREVER SOILS ARE SATURATED
/I.E. SWAMPY BOGS/. LOWS WOULD BOTTOM DOWN AROUND THE MID-30S...LOW-
30S FOR THOSE AREAS THAT RADIATE. WARMEST CONDITIONS ALONG THE
SHORES. BUT WILL GO CONSERVATIVE WITH THIS FORECAST CONSIDERING THE
POTENTIAL FOR MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECKS AND HOLD WITH LOWS AROUND THE
UPPER-30S. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR FROST / FREEZE HEADLINES MAY BE
NECESSARY FOR S/E COASTAL MA AND RI.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* COOL ON FRIDAY
* GLANCING BLOW FAVORED SAT/EARLY SUN BUT HIGHER IMPACT POSSIBLE
* BIGGEST CONCERN IS STRONG WINDS LATE SAT/SUN ESP CAPE COD
* ACCUMULATING SNOW IS STILL POSSIBLE BUT A RATHER LOW PROBABILITY
* MUCH MILDER WEATHER RETURNS BY NEXT TUE AND WED

DETAILS...

FRIDAY...

AN ENLONGATED HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL RESULT
IN A RATHER CLOUDY/COOL DAY WITH EASTERLY WINDS.  A SPOT SHOWER AND
PERHAPS EVEN SOME DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST DURING
THE AFTERNOON...BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY.  HIGHS WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...TO THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 50S ELSEWHERE.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS QUITE LOW OVER THIS TIME.  ENSEMBLE
SENSITIVITY PLOTS SHOW THE ENERGY RESPONSIBLE FOR DEVELOPING THE
EVENTUAL STORM IS STILL NEAR THE ARCTIC CIRCLE.  THIS LEAVES PLENTY
OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK/STRENGTH AND IMPACTS ACROSS THE REGION.

WITH THAT SAID...CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS A GLANCING BLOW AND
NOT A DIRECT HIT FOR OUR REGION.  THE BIGGEST CONCERN RIGHT NOW IS
FOR STRONG TO PERHAPS DAMAGING WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CAPE
AND NANTUCKET.  THERE ARE TWO MAIN SHORTWAVES INVOLVED IN STORM
FORMATION.  INITIALLY...MOST MODELS FORM AN ENLONGATED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OR EVEN TWO CENTERS BEFORE CONSOLIDATING INTO ONE STORM.
CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS HAPPENS TOO LATE FOR A SIGNIFICANT
RAIN/SNOW EVENT IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

A BIG CAVEAT IS THAT THIS EVENT IS CURRENTLY PROGGED BETWEEN 72 AND
96 HOUR OUT...WHICH IS QUITE A BIT OF TIME IN THE MODEL WORLD.  IF
THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE IS WEAKER THAN CURRENTLY DEPICTED...THE STORM
WILL INTENSIFY EARLIER AND CLOSER TO THE COAST.  WHILE THIS IS A
LOWER PROBABILITY AT THIS POINT...ITS CERTAINLY IN THE REALM OF
POSSIBILITIES.  WHAT EVER HAPPENS...WE CAN SAY THAT EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND WILL HAVE MORE OF AN IMPACT THAN THE INTERIOR.

PTYPE AND TIMING...

A LOT OF THIS WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAR WEST THE MAIN PRECIPITATION
SHIELD REACHES.  INITIALLY...ALL PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM
OF RAIN OR JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY.  IN FACT...MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN EASTERN NEW ENGLAND...WITH JUST A FEW
SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS IF THE CURRENT TRACK VERIFIES. IF
THE TRACK SHIFTS WEST AND WE END UP GETTING INTO HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION SAT NIGHT AND EARLY SUN...DYNAMIC COOLING WOULD CHANGE
PTYPE TO SNOW AT LEAST IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  AGAIN...BASED ON
EXPECTED TRACK...ACCUMULATING SNOW IS A RATHER LOW PROBABILITY...BUT
STILL CAN/T BE RULED OUT. WHAT EVER HAPPENS...MOST PRECIPITATION
SHOULD HAVE EXITED THE REGION BY MID MORNING ON SUNDAY.

STRONG WINDS...

STRONG WINDS ARE THE ONE THING WE ARE FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT WILL
DEVELOP.  EXCELLENT MIXING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE STORM SHOULD
RESULT IN NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH DEVELOPING
LATE SAT AND ESPECIALLY SUN AS MIXING INCREASES.  ACROSS THE CAPE
AND NANTUCKET...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE STORM MAY SEE A PERIOD
OF 50 TO 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.  WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH
OF THE REGION AND PERHAPS HIGH WIND WATCHES/WARNINGS FOR THE CAPE
AND NANTUCKET.  GIVEN MANY TREES STILL HAVE AT LEAST SOME LEAVES ON
THEM...THE RISK FOR TREE DAMAGE AND ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES WILL BE
ENHANCED.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

DEEP UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE REGION AND WE ENTER AN AREA
OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING.  A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND EXPECTED WITH
SOME OF THE COASTAL PLAIN POSSIBLY SEEING HIGHS BREAK 60 BY TUE OR
WED. MAINLY DRY WEATHER OVER THIS TIME...BUT A SPOT SHOWER OR TWO IS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS RESULTING IN
LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS NEAR THE SOUTH COAST.  SHOULD SEE ANY LEFT
OVER LOW CLOUDS SCOUR OUT BY 3Z.  IN ADDITION...A BAND OF SHOWERS
WAS WORKING THROUGH INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS
EVENING.  THESE SHOWERS SHOULD NOT LAST LONG IN A GIVEN LOCATION AND
EXIT THE CAPE/NANTUCKET BY 6 OR 7Z.

THURSDAY...VFR. LIGHT W-WINDS. SCT CIGS 4-5 KFT ACROSS INTERIOR
TERMINALS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. LIGHT/VRB WINDS. SKC. SHALLOW PATCHY GROUND
FOG POSSIBLE AT PRONE TERMINALS.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  VFR TO START BUT
ONSHORE FLOW MAY RESULT IN MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING FRI AFTERNOON AND
ESPECIALLY FRI NIGHT.  A SPOT SHOWER OR TWO IS POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON UNCERTAINTY OF
TRACK/STRENGTH AND TIMING OF COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.  MOST
LIKELY SCENARIO IS VFR TO BE MIXED IN AT TIMES WITH MVFR SAT INTO
SAT NIGHT. LOWER CONDITIONS MOST LIKELY AT THE COAST WITH RAIN OR
SCATTERED SHOWERS.  LOW PROBABILITY FOR A CHANGE TO SNOW AT THE END.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR BY SUNDAY...BUT NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS EXPECTED.  STRONGEST WINDS CAPE AND
NANTUCKET WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS POSSIBLE.

MONDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS BACK W AND DIMINISH ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS TOWARDS
THURSDAY MORNING. SHOULD SEE SEAS GRADUALLY DIMINISH BELOW SMALL-
CRAFT THRESHOLDS UNDER LIGHT W-WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MUCH OF THE DAY THURSDAY...AND
ONTO THURSDAY NIGHT... LOOKS LIKE GOOD BOATING WEATHER.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THOUGH MONDAY...

***STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS AND 20 FOOT SEAS POSSIBLE LATE SAT INTO
  SUNDAY ACROSS THE OPEN ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF MASSACHUSETTS***

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL RESULT IN
EASTERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 15 KNOTS.  GRADIENT WILL BE WEAK ENOUGH
THOUGH TO KEEP WINDS SPEEDS/SEAS WELL BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  HIGH IMPACT MARINE EVENT
EXPECTED.  WHILE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING
OF COASTAL LOW PRESSURE...GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS ACROSS
MOST WATERS ARE PRETTY MUCH A SLAM DUNK LATE SAT INTO SUN.  IN
FACT...DECENT CHANCE IN A PERIOD OF STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS WITH 20
FOOT SEAS ACROSS THE OPEN ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF MASSACHUSETTS.
EXACT WIND SPEEDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS WILL DEPEND UPON THE EXACT
TRACK/INTENSITY OF COASTAL LOW PRESSURE...BUT APPEARS THERE IS A
GOOD CHANCE OF A HIGH IMPACT MARINE EVENT.  A MARINE WEATHER
STATEMENT WAS ISSUED TO ADDRESS THESE CONCERNS.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  NORTHWEST SCA WIND GUSTS AND SEAS
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE MUCH OF THE DAY WITH GOOD MIXING IN THE COLD
AIR ADVECTION PATTERN.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES ARE NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE LATE SAT INTO SUN.
NONETHELESS...THERE IS AT LEAST A LOW PROBABILITY FOR MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING/EROSION ALONG THE EASTERN MA COAST AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF
THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET.  THE CONCERN IS FOR THE EARLY MORNING HIGH
TIDE ON SUNDAY.  IF WE END UP REALIZING 20 FOOT SEAS OVER THE OPEN
OCEAN AND NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS...THERE COULD BE
SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND EROSION.  SOME OF THE HOT SPOTS
WOULD BE SALISBURY AND PLUM ISLAND...HULL...SCITUATE AND PERHAPS
SANDWICH HARBOR AND NANTUCKET HARBOR.  AGAIN...IT WILL DEPEND ON
EXACT WIND SPEEDS/WAVE HEIGHTS OUT OVER THE OCEAN DURING THE EARLY
MORNING SUNDAY HIGH TIDE CYCLE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SIPPRELL/FRANK
NEAR TERM...FRANK/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...FRANK/SIPPRELL
MARINE...SIPPRELL/FRANK
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...FRANK




000
FXUS61 KALY 292308
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
708 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS AND A FEW LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY START TO
CLEAR OUT TONIGHT AS A COOLER AIR MASS WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE
REGION. SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL BE IN PLACE TOMORROW INTO
FRIDAY...BEFORE EVEN COLDER AIR ARRIVES OVER THE WEEKEND...ALONG
WITH THE CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 625 PM EDT..A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT IS SITUATED EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS FRONT TOOK ON ANAFRONT
CHARACTERISTICS...AS A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS STILL REMAINS ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST
PORTION OF THE FA. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SLIDE
EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL END. ANY
ADDITIONAL PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY JUST A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.

THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS IS PROGRESSING ACROSS CENTRAL NEW
YORK...AND SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...ESP FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS. CLOUDS MAY HANG AROUND ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS
AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...WHERE A FEW LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT THANKS TO THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PICKING UP SOME MOISTURE OFF LAKE ONTARIO. OTHERWISE...MOST AREAS
SHOULD BE DRY.

TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY SEASONABLE...AS COLD AIR ADVECTION STARTS TO
BRING COOLER CANADIAN AIR INTO THE AREA. MIN TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MAINLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.

A COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THURSDAY. THIS WILL
KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S FOR VALLEY AREAS...WITH 40S
ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN. WITH THE NW FLOW IN PLACE...SOME CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED...WITH MANY AREAS TURNING OUT MOSTLY CLOUDY. THERE
MAY BE A LINGERING EARLY MORNING SHOWER OVER THE MOHAWK VALLEY DUE
TO THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE EARLY IN THE DAY...OTHERWISE
IT LOOKS TO BE DRY ACROSS THE REGION.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING
AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE AREA. TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE
30S FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S FOR
FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ON
THURSDAY NIGHT...SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY ONCE AGAIN FOR
FRIDAY...AS A SHARPLY DIGGING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY.

THE BEST FORCING WILL GENERALLY BE TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT WE CANNOT RULE OUT SOME RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...ESP LATE. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING ANY SNOW
WILL BE ABOVE 2000 FEET. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOW 40S FOR VALLEY AREAS...WITH LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE
HIGH TERRAIN. PRECIP AMOUNTS LOOK VERY LIGHT...JUST A FEW
HUNDREDTHS AT MOST...SO ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION AT THE HIGH
ELEVATIONS WILL BE LIMITED TO A DUSTING OR LESS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM AND AN OCEAN STORM WILL BE IN FOCUS FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IMPACTING
FAR NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FA ON TUESDAY. IN BETWEEN THESE EVENTS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE FA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...A DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DROP
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THE NORTHERN APPALACHIANS AS A
COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS WELL EAST OF DELMARVA. THE LACK OF PHASING OF
THE SYSTEMS WILL KEEP THE BULK OF THE PCPN EAST OF THE FA. ALTHOUGH
SOME MINOR PCPN ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE CLIPPER TYPE
SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH AXIS. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH JUST
CHANCE POPS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WHILE IT WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT...LACK OF QPF LIKELY TO PRODUCE ONLY
A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHS
ON SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST TO
AROUND 50 SOUTHEAST. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FA FROM THE OHIO VALLEY BY
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND SLIDES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD LATE MONDAY
NIGHT. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE BLUSTERY DAY WITH STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS
ACROSS THE FA AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS BETWEEN THE
COASTAL SYSTEM AND HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN
THE 20S. HIGHS ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S
NORTHWEST TO MID 40S SOUTHEAST WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 20S
TO LOWER 30S.

ON TUESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES AND THE SOUTHEAST EDGE OF THE PCPN MAY JUST BRUSH THE
FAR NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FA. EXPECT HIGHS ON TUESDAY TO BE
MILDER AS A SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE FA OUT AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 40S
NORTHWEST TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD
AS A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT SLIDES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD LATE
THIS EVENING AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY.

TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. WITH A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND WEAK
UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALOFT...CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE TAF
SITES AROUND 3-5 KFT THROUGH 15Z-20Z AFT WHICH SKIES WILL BECOME SCT035.
THE CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE FIRST AT KPOU AND LAST AT KPSF.
WINDS WILL BE WEST/NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 5 KNOTS TONIGHT
INCREASING TO 5-10 KNOTS THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...ESP AT
NIGHT WHEN VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH ON
THURSDAY...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT ONCE AGAIN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

SOME RAIN SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WILL
CONTINUE OVER FAR EASTERN AREAS...BUT SHOULD BE MOVING EASTWARD
AND OUT OF THE AREA SOON. SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS FAR WESTERN PARTS OF THE
REGION...AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TOMORROW INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALLOWS FOR SOME
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR LATE FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.

ANY PRECIP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT...AND
BASIN AVERAGE AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE ABOUT TWO TENTHS OR LESS THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW RIVER LEVELS TO HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...IRL/11
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS








000
FXUS61 KALY 292228
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
628 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS AND A FEW LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY START TO
CLEAR OUT TONIGHT AS A COOLER AIR MASS WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE
REGION. SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL BE IN PLACE TOMORROW INTO
FRIDAY...BEFORE EVEN COLDER AIR ARRIVES OVER THE WEEKEND...ALONG
WITH THE CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 625 PM EDT..A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT IS SITUATED EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS FRONT TOOK ON ANAFRONT
CHARACTERISTICS...AS A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS STILL REMAINS ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST
PORTION OF THE FA. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SLIDE
EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL END. ANY
ADDITIONAL PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY JUST A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.

THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS IS PROGRESSING ACROSS CENTRAL NEW
YORK...AND SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...ESP FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS. CLOUDS MAY HANG AROUND ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS
AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...WHERE A FEW LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT THANKS TO THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PICKING UP SOME MOISTURE OFF LAKE ONTARIO. OTHERWISE...MOST AREAS
SHOULD BE DRY.

TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY SEASONABLE...AS COLD AIR ADVECTION STARTS TO
BRING COOLER CANADIAN AIR INTO THE AREA. MIN TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MAINLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.

A COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THURSDAY. THIS WILL
KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S FOR VALLEY AREAS...WITH 40S
ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN. WITH THE NW FLOW IN PLACE...SOME CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED...WITH MANY AREAS TURNING OUT MOSTLY CLOUDY. THERE
MAY BE A LINGERING EARLY MORNING SHOWER OVER THE MOHAWK VALLEY DUE
TO THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE EARLY IN THE DAY...OTHERWISE
IT LOOKS TO BE DRY ACROSS THE REGION.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING
AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE AREA. TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE
30S FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S FOR
FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ON
THURSDAY NIGHT...SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY ONCE AGAIN FOR
FRIDAY...AS A SHARPLY DIGGING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY.

THE BEST FORCING WILL GENERALLY BE TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT WE CANNOT RULE OUT SOME RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...ESP LATE. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING ANY SNOW
WILL BE ABOVE 2000 FEET. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOW 40S FOR VALLEY AREAS...WITH LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE
HIGH TERRAIN. PRECIP AMOUNTS LOOK VERY LIGHT...JUST A FEW
HUNDREDTHS AT MOST...SO ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION AT THE HIGH
ELEVATIONS WILL BE LIMITED TO A DUSTING OR LESS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM AND AN OCEAN STORM WILL BE IN FOCUS FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IMPACTING
FAR NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FA ON TUESDAY. IN BETWEEN THESE EVENTS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE FA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...A DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DROP
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THE NORTHERN APPALACHIANS AS A
COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS WELL EAST OF DELMARVA. THE LACK OF PHASING OF
THE SYSTEMS WILL KEEP THE BULK OF THE PCPN EAST OF THE FA. ALTHOUGH
SOME MINOR PCPN ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE CLIPPER TYPE
SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH AXIS. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH JUST
CHANCE POPS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WHILE IT WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT...LACK OF QPF LIKELY TO PRODUCE ONLY
A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHS
ON SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST TO
AROUND 50 SOUTHEAST. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FA FROM THE OHIO VALLEY BY
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND SLIDES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD LATE MONDAY
NIGHT. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE BLUSTERY DAY WITH STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS
ACROSS THE FA AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS BETWEEN THE
COASTAL SYSTEM AND HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN
THE 20S. HIGHS ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S
NORTHWEST TO MID 40S SOUTHEAST WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 20S
TO LOWER 30S.

ON TUESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES AND THE SOUTHEAST EDGE OF THE PCPN MAY JUST BRUSH THE
FAR NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FA. EXPECT HIGHS ON TUESDAY TO BE
MILDER AS A SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE FA OUT AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 40S
NORTHWEST TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD
AS A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

THIS AFTERNOON...COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AFFECTING THE TAF SITES. THESE SHOWERS
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 22/23Z BEFORE EXITING EAST OF THE
REGION. HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR VISIBILITIES AT KPSF
FROM 18-20Z TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY BRIEF REDUCTIONS WITH THE SHOWERS.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE BUT BECOME WESTERLY BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON AROUND 5-10 KNOTS.

TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. WITH A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND WEAK
UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALOFT...CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE TAF
SITES AROUND 3-5 KFT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD EXCEPT
AT KPOU WHERE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE
WEST/NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 5 KNOTS TONIGHT INCREASING TO 5-10 KNOTS
THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...ESP AT
NIGHT WHEN VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH ON
THURSDAY...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT ONCE AGAIN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

SOME RAIN SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WILL
CONTINUE OVER FAR EASTERN AREAS...BUT SHOULD BE MOVING EASTWARD
AND OUT OF THE AREA SOON. SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS FAR WESTERN PARTS OF THE
REGION...AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TOMORROW INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALLOWS FOR SOME
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR LATE FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.

ANY PRECIP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT...AND
BASIN AVERAGE AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE ABOUT TWO TENTHS OR LESS THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW RIVER LEVELS TO HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS








000
FXUS61 KOKX 292221
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
621 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVED EAST OF THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
AN ALBERTA CLIPPER TYPE LOW WILL HEAD SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO THE CAROLINA COAST ON FRIDAY...WHILE ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS
OFF THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THE FIRST LOW
WILL PASS TO THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...WHILE THE SECOND INTENSIFIES AND ALSO PASSES TO THE
SOUTHEAST FROM LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST LATER SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED EAST OF THE AREA AT 22Z WITH THE LIGHT RAIN
SLOWLY DIMINISHING AS UPPER JET WEAKENS ACROSS THE REGION WITH
MOST SUPPORT TO THE NORTH.

BEHIND THE FRONT...EXPECT COLDER AND DRIER AIR TO MOVE IN FROM
THE WEST AS SKIES CLEAR.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS THROUGH THE DAY.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

MAV/MET TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND WAS ACCEPTED.
EXPECT HIGHS ON THURSDAY TO CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLD WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE
LOWER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS STILL IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A POTENT NRN STREAM
VORT...NOW OVER NUNAVUT IN NORTHERN CANADA...WILL DIVE SE TO THE
GREAT LAKES BY FRI AND CARVE OUT A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH AND
SIGNIFICANT CLOSED LOW. THE CLOSED LOW WILL CONTINUE SE TO THE
CAROLINAS ON SAT...THEN PASS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WHILE ALSO
NEGATIVELY TILTING THE PARENT UPPER TROUGH.

THE APPROACH OF THIS COMBO OF UPPER SYSTEMS WILL PROMOTE WEAK
CYCLOGENESIS ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. AS THIS
LOW APPROACHES...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN EASTERLY AND BEGIN TO
MOISTEN ON FRI...AND A WEAK LEADING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
INTERACTING WITH A WEAK LOW LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING NW FROM THE
INCIPIENT OFFSHORE LOW TO WARRANT SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS MAINLY OVER LONG ISLAND BY LATE DAY FRI OR EARLY FRI
EVENING...THEN INCREASING POP TO CHANCE AND THEN LIKELY MOST
PLACES DURING THE DAY ON SAT AND CAT ACROSS ERN LONG ISLAND AS THE
OFFSHORE LOW MAKES ITS CLOSEST PASS.

THEN AS THE POTENT CLOSED LOW ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE PARENT UPPER
TROUGH...A STRONGER LOW SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST LATE DAY SAT INTO SAT EVENING...AND THEN HEAD NE...PASSING
OUTSIDE THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE
CLOSED LOW SHOULD REMAIN A SEPARATE ENTITY FROM THE LARGER
TROUGH...AND THIS LACK OF PHASING SHOULD PRECLUDE THE AREA FROM
SEEING HEAVY PRECIP...SO ACTUALLY HAVE DECREASING POP DURING SAT
NIGHT. ENOUGH COLD AIR SHOULD STILL POUR IN BEHIND THE LOW TO
POSSIBLY CAUSE ANY LINGERING PRECIP TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO
SNOW...BUT WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION. THE BIGGEST IMPACTS
FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A SHOT OF COLD AND WIND FROM SAT NIGHT
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT TEMPS TO BE ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE BLEND... WITH LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE 30S AREA-WIDE...THEN
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S ON SUNDAY AS WINDS GUST CLOSE TO 40
MPH...WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE 30S. TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD FALL
TO AOB FREEZING EVERYWHERE EXCEPT NYC SUNDAY NIGHT.

AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS EARLY NEXT WEEK AND HEIGHTS SLOWLY
RISE ALOFT...EXPECT GRADUAL MODERATION...WITH TEMPS STILL BELOW
NORMAL MON-TUE...THEN REACHING NEAR NORMAL LEVELS ON WED AS A WARM
FRONT PASSES WELL TO THE NORTH. AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT MAY
BRING ISOLD SHOWERS ON WED.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS. S-SW WINDS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BACK TO THE WEST...AND THEN TO THE
NORTHWEST WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. GUSTS TO 20 KT ARE
POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT WINDS
SHOULD SETTLE DOWN TO 8-10 KT BY 22Z. NW WINDS DIMINISH TO 5-8 KT
THIS EVENING.

MAINLY VFR FORECAST. MODELS INDICATING THAT SHOWERS ARE DRYING UP
AS THEY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...BUT OCNL MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...VFR. NW WINDS 5-10 KT ON THURSDAY...AND THEN
E-NE WINDS 5-10 KT ON FRIDAY.
.FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER LIKELY. PRECIP MAINLY
RAIN...BUT SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR SATURDAY NIGHT. NE-N
WINDS 15-20G20-25KT.
.SUNDAY...IMPROVING CONDS. NW WINDS 15-20G20-30KT.
.MONDAY...VFR. WEST WINDS 5-10 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING EAST OF THE FORECAST WATERS EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH POST FRONTAL SHOWERS SLOWLY WEAKENING. WIND GUSTS
BEHIND THE FRONT WERE UP TO 25 KT AND QUICKLY DIMINISHED.
THEREFORE HAVE ALLOWED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEST OF FIRE
ISLAND INLET TO EXPIRE AT 22Z. THE SMALL CRAFT EAST IS UNTIL 06Z
AND MAY BE CANCELLED EARLIER AS GUSTS HAVE BEEN QUICKLY
DIMINISHING AND SEAS HAVE BEEN RUNNING BELOW 5 FT.

MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE AREA WATERS FOR
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WATERS.

SCA CONDS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ON ALL WATERS FROM LATE FRI NIGHT
INTO SAT MORNING AS NE FLOW STRENGTHENS...THEN EXPECT NORTHERLY
GALES ON THE OCEAN BY SAT AFTERNOON...AND N-NW GALES ON ALL WATERS
ESPECIALLY THE OCEAN AND THE ERN SOUND/BAYS SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
CONDS SHOULD THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FROM SUNDAY NIGHT ON...WITH
SUB-SCA CONDS ON THE SOUND/HARBOR/BAYS BY MON MORNING...AND ON THE
OCEAN BY MON NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THE
SHOWERS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

LIGHT PRECIP EXPECTED FROM FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
IF OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS CLOSER TO THE COAST SAT NIGHT...
EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND SE CT COULD SEE MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
AMTS CLOSER TO 1/2 INCH. NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC IMPACT
EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...BC/MET
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...BC/GOODMAN/MET
HYDROLOGY...BC/GOODMAN






000
FXUS61 KBOX 292211
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
611 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

SHOWERS CONCLUDE BEHIND A COLD FRONT PUSHING OFFSHORE TONIGHT.
SEASONABLE AND DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS INTO THE END OF THE WEEK
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. A COASTAL STORM WILL LIKELY DELIVER A GLANCING
BLOW TO THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...BUT THE OPPORTUNITY
FOR A HIGHER IMPACT STILL EXISTS. MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOLLOWS WITH
A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND BY NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

610 PM UPDATE...

A COLD FRONT WAS NOW LOCATED ACROSS COASTAL RHODE ISLAND AND INTO
SOUTHEAST MA.  THERE ALSO WAS CURRENTLY A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS
ACROSS SOUTHWEST NH AND INTO WESTERN MA EARLY THIS EVENING.  THE
SHOWERS WERE ACTUALLY A BIT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WHERE SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WAS PROVIDING SOME MID LEVEL LIFT.  THIS BAND OF SHOWERS
WILL NOT LAST MORE THAN A COUPLE HOURS IN A GIVEN LOCATION.  THE
SHOWERS SHOULD REACH THE I-95 CORRIDOR BETWEEN 8 AND 10 PM...FINALLY
EXITING THE CAPE AND ISLANDS AFTER 2 OR 3 AM.  RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
BE RATHER LIGHT ACROSS THE REGION...MAINLY A TRACE TO LESS THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH.

MAIN TROUGH AXIS PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. LIKELY
BLANKET OF MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS AND WET WEATHER WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS MILD TOWARDS SHORES WITH LOWS AROUND THE MID-40S.
ELSEWHERE...GRADUAL CLEARING EXPECTED W TO E AS W-WINDS DRIVE COOLER
AND DRIER AIR ACROSS THE REGION. COOLEST CONDITIONS N AND W YET
WINDS /MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER/ WILL LIKELY LIMIT
EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECTING LOWS AROUND THE UPPER-30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

THURSDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD E. SUBSIDENCE AND SINKING AIR IN
CONTROL OF THE REGIONS WEATHER. WITH A COOLER AIRMASS CONTINUING TO
BUILD WITHIN THE LOW-LEVELS /H85 JUST BELOW THE FREEZING MARK/
EXPECT A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY-LAYER ALLOWING FOR DRIER AIR TO MIX-
DOWN /DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID-30S/ AND DEVELOPMENT OF A SCATTERED
CUMULUS DECK AROUND 5-6 KFT.

HIGHS AROUND THE 50S EXPECTED WHICH IS JUST ABOUT NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. COLD
AIRMASS BELOW FREEZING REMAINS ALOFT. A GOOD CASE FOR EFFECTIVE
RADIATIONAL COOLING...THAT IS IF CLOUDS DO NOT BECOME AN ISSUE.

CONSIDERING DEWPOINTS AROUND THE MID-30S ON THURSDAY...IT IS
POSSIBLE LOCATIONS COULD COOL BELOW THE CROSSOVER THRESHOLD IF THE
CONDITIONS ARE RIGHT AND WE ARE ALLOWED TO RADIATE OUT EFFECTIVELY.
BUT BENEATH CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH WHICH WEAK IMPULSES WILL GLIDE...
THERE IS ALWAYS THAT POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCEMENT OF MID-LEVEL LIFT AND
CONVERGENCE YIELDING A BLANKETING CLOUD BASE.

IF CONDITIONS REMAIN CLEAR...THERE IS ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO SPECULATE
THAT SHALLOW GROUND FOG WILL DEVELOP WHEREVER SOILS ARE SATURATED
/I.E. SWAMPY BOGS/. LOWS WOULD BOTTOM DOWN AROUND THE MID-30S...LOW-
30S FOR THOSE AREAS THAT RADIATE. WARMEST CONDITIONS ALONG THE
SHORES. BUT WILL GO CONSERVATIVE WITH THIS FORECAST CONSIDERING THE
POTENTIAL FOR MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECKS AND HOLD WITH LOWS AROUND THE
UPPER-30S. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR FROST / FREEZE HEADLINES MAY BE
NECESSARY FOR S/E COASTAL MA AND RI.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* COOL ON FRIDAY
* GLANCING BLOW FAVORED SAT/EARLY SUN BUT HIGHER IMPACT POSSIBLE
* BIGGEST CONCERN IS STRONG WINDS LATE SAT/SUN ESP CAPE COD
* ACCUMULATING SNOW IS STILL POSSIBLE BUT A RATHER LOW PROBABILITY
* MUCH MILDER WEATHER RETURNS BY NEXT TUE AND WED

DETAILS...

FRIDAY...

AN ENLONGATED HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL RESULT
IN A RATHER CLOUDY/COOL DAY WITH EASTERLY WINDS.  A SPOT SHOWER AND
PERHAPS EVEN SOME DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST DURING
THE AFTERNOON...BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY.  HIGHS WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...TO THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 50S ELSEWHERE.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS QUITE LOW OVER THIS TIME.  ENSEMBLE
SENSITIVITY PLOTS SHOW THE ENERGY RESPONSIBLE FOR DEVELOPING THE
EVENTUAL STORM IS STILL NEAR THE ARCTIC CIRCLE.  THIS LEAVES PLENTY
OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK/STRENGTH AND IMPACTS ACROSS THE REGION.

WITH THAT SAID...CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS A GLANCING BLOW AND
NOT A DIRECT HIT FOR OUR REGION.  THE BIGGEST CONCERN RIGHT NOW IS
FOR STRONG TO PERHAPS DAMAGING WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CAPE
AND NANTUCKET.  THERE ARE TWO MAIN SHORTWAVES INVOLVED IN STORM
FORMATION.  INITIALLY...MOST MODELS FORM AN ENLONGATED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OR EVEN TWO CENTERS BEFORE CONSOLIDATING INTO ONE STORM.
CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS HAPPENS TOO LATE FOR A SIGNIFICANT
RAIN/SNOW EVENT IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

A BIG CAVEAT IS THAT THIS EVENT IS CURRENTLY PROGGED BETWEEN 72 AND
96 HOUR OUT...WHICH IS QUITE A BIT OF TIME IN THE MODEL WORLD.  IF
THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE IS WEAKER THAN CURRENTLY DEPICTED...THE STORM
WILL INTENSIFY EARLIER AND CLOSER TO THE COAST.  WHILE THIS IS A
LOWER PROBABILITY AT THIS POINT...ITS CERTAINLY IN THE REALM OF
POSSIBILITIES.  WHAT EVER HAPPENS...WE CAN SAY THAT EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND WILL HAVE MORE OF AN IMPACT THAN THE INTERIOR.

PTYPE AND TIMING...

A LOT OF THIS WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAR WEST THE MAIN PRECIPITATION
SHIELD REACHES.  INITIALLY...ALL PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM
OF RAIN OR JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY.  IN FACT...MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN EASTERN NEW ENGLAND...WITH JUST A FEW
SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS IF THE CURRENT TRACK VERIFIES. IF
THE TRACK SHIFTS WEST AND WE END UP GETTING INTO HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION SAT NIGHT AND EARLY SUN...DYNAMIC COOLING WOULD CHANGE
PTYPE TO SNOW AT LEAST IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  AGAIN...BASED ON
EXPECTED TRACK...ACCUMULATING SNOW IS A RATHER LOW PROBABILITY...BUT
STILL CAN/T BE RULED OUT. WHAT EVER HAPPENS...MOST PRECIPITATION
SHOULD HAVE EXITED THE REGION BY MID MORNING ON SUNDAY.

STRONG WINDS...

STRONG WINDS ARE THE ONE THING WE ARE FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT WILL
DEVELOP.  EXCELLENT MIXING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE STORM SHOULD
RESULT IN NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH DEVELOPING
LATE SAT AND ESPECIALLY SUN AS MIXING INCREASES.  ACROSS THE CAPE
AND NANTUCKET...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE STORM MAY SEE A PERIOD
OF 50 TO 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.  WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH
OF THE REGION AND PERHAPS HIGH WIND WATCHES/WARNINGS FOR THE CAPE
AND NANTUCKET.  GIVEN MANY TREES STILL HAVE AT LEAST SOME LEAVES ON
THEM...THE RISK FOR TREE DAMAGE AND ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES WILL BE
ENHANCED.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

DEEP UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE REGION AND WE ENTER AN AREA
OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING.  A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND EXPECTED WITH
SOME OF THE COASTAL PLAIN POSSIBLY SEEING HIGHS BREAK 60 BY TUE OR
WED. MAINLY DRY WEATHER OVER THIS TIME...BUT A SPOT SHOWER OR TWO IS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS RESULTING IN
LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS NEAR THE SOUTH COAST.  SHOULD SEE ANY LEFT
OVER LOW CLOUDS SCOUR OUT BY 3Z.  IN ADDITION...A BAND OF SHOWERS
WAS WORKING THROUGH INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS
EVENING.  THESE SHOWERS SHOULD NOT LAST LONG IN A GIVEN LOCATION AND
EXIT THE CAPE/NANTUCKET BY 6 OR 7Z.

THURSDAY...VFR. LIGHT W-WINDS. SCT CIGS 4-5 KFT ACROSS INTERIOR
TERMINALS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. LIGHT/VRB WINDS. SKC. SHALLOW PATCHY GROUND
FOG POSSIBLE AT PRONE TERMINALS.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  VFR TO START BUT
ONSHORE FLOW MAY RESULT IN MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING FRI AFTERNOON AND
ESPECIALLY FRI NIGHT.  A SPOT SHOWER OR TWO IS POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON UNCERTAINTY OF
TRACK/STRENGTH AND TIMING OF COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.  MOST
LIKELY SCENARIO IS VFR TO BE MIXED IN AT TIMES WITH MVFR SAT INTO
SAT NIGHT. LOWER CONDITIONS MOST LIKELY AT THE COAST WITH RAIN OR
SCATTERED SHOWERS.  LOW PROBABILITY FOR A CHANGE TO SNOW AT THE END.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR BY SUNDAY...BUT NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS EXPECTED.  STRONGEST WINDS CAPE AND
NANTUCKET WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS POSSIBLE.

MONDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS BACK W AND DIMINISH ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS TOWARDS
THURSDAY MORNING. SHOULD SEE SEAS GRADUALLY DIMINISH BELOW SMALL-
CRAFT THRESHOLDS UNDER LIGHT W-WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MUCH OF THE DAY THURSDAY...AND
ONTO THURSDAY NIGHT... LOOKS LIKE GOOD BOATING WEATHER.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THOUGH MONDAY...

***STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS AND 20 FOOT SEAS POSSIBLE LATE SAT INTO
  SUNDAY ACROSS THE OPEN ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF MASSACHUSETTS***

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL RESULT IN
EASTERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 15 KNOTS.  GRADIENT WILL BE WEAK ENOUGH
THOUGH TO KEEP WINDS SPEEDS/SEAS WELL BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  HIGH IMPACT MARINE EVENT
EXPECTED.  WHILE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING
OF COASTAL LOW PRESSURE...GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS ACROSS
MOST WATERS ARE PRETTY MUCH A SLAM DUNK LATE SAT INTO SUN.  IN
FACT...DECENT CHANCE IN A PERIOD OF STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS WITH 20
FOOT SEAS ACROSS THE OPEN ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF MASSACHUSETTS.
EXACT WIND SPEEDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS WILL DEPEND UPON THE EXACT
TRACK/INTENSITY OF COASTAL LOW PRESSURE...BUT APPEARS THERE IS A
GOOD CHANCE OF A HIGH IMPACT MARINE EVENT.  A MARINE WEATHER
STATEMENT WAS ISSUED TO ADDRESS THESE CONCERNS.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  NORTHWEST SCA WIND GUSTS AND SEAS
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE MUCH OF THE DAY WITH GOOD MIXING IN THE COLD
AIR ADVECTION PATTERN.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES ARE NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE LATE SAT INTO SUN.
NONETHELESS...THERE IS AT LEAST A LOW PROBABILITY FOR MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING/EROSION ALONG THE EASTERN MA COAST AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF
THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET.  THE CONCERN IS FOR THE EARLY MORNING HIGH
TIDE ON SUNDAY.  IF WE END UP REALIZING 20 FOOT SEAS OVER THE OPEN
OCEAN AND NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS...THERE COULD BE
SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND EROSION.  SOME OF THE HOT SPOTS
WOULD BE SALISBURY AND PLUM ISLAND...HULL...SCITUATE AND PERHAPS
SANDWICH HARBOR AND NANTUCKET HARBOR.  AGAIN...IT WILL DEPEND ON
EXACT WIND SPEEDS/WAVE HEIGHTS OUT OVER THE OCEAN DURING THE EARLY
MORNING SUNDAY HIGH TIDE CYCLE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SIPPRELL/FRANK
NEAR TERM...FRANK/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...FRANK/SIPPRELL
MARINE...SIPPRELL/FRANK
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...FRANK




000
FXUS61 KALY 292011
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
411 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS AND A FEW LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY START TO
CLEAR OUT TONIGHT AS A COOLER AIR MASS WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE
REGION. SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL BE IN PLACE TOMORROW INTO
FRIDAY...BEFORE EVEN COLDER AIR ARRIVES OVER THE WEEKEND...ALONG
WITH THE CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 410 PM EDT..A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT IS SITUATED JUST EAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT HAS TAKEN ON
ANAFRONT CHARACTERISTICS...AS A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS STILL
REMAINS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION AND CATSKILLS ON EASTWARD. THE FRONT SHOULD SLOWLY SLIDE
EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
END BY EARLY EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES.
ANY ADDITIONAL PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY JUST A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.

THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS IS PROGRESSING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL NEW
YORK...AND SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...ESP FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS. CLOUDS MAY HANG AROUND ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS
AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...WHERE A FEW LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT THANKS TO THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PICKING UP SOME MOISTURE OFF LAKE ONTARIO. OTHERWISE...MOST AREAS
SHOULD BE DRY.

TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY SEASONABLE...AS COLD AIR ADVECTION STARTS TO
BRING COOLER CANADIAN AIR INTO THE AREA. MIN TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MAINLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.

A COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THURSDAY. THIS WILL
KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S FOR VALLEY AREAS...WITH 40S
ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN. WITH THE NW FLOW IN PLACE...SOME CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED...WITH MANY AREAS TURNING OUT MOSTLY CLOUDY. THERE
MAY BE A LINGERING EARLY MORNING SHOWER OVER THE MOHAWK VALLEY DUE
TO THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE EARLY IN THE DAY...OTHERWISE
IT LOOKS TO BE DRY ACROSS THE REGION.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING
AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE AREA. TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE
30S FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S FOR
FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ON
THURSDAY NIGHT...SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY ONCE AGAIN FOR
FRIDAY...AS A SHARPLY DIGGING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY.

THE BEST FORCING WILL GENERALLY BE TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT WE CANNOT RULE OUT SOME RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...ESP LATE. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING ANY SNOW
WILL BE ABOVE 2000 FEET. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOW 40S FOR VALLEY AREAS...WITH LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE
HIGH TERRAIN. PRECIP AMOUNTS LOOK VERY LIGHT...JUST A FEW
HUNDREDTHS AT MOST...SO ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION AT THE HIGH
ELEVATIONS WILL BE LIMITED TO A DUSTING OR LESS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM AND AN OCEAN STORM WILL BE IN FOCUS FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IMPACTING
FAR NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FA ON TUESDAY. IN BETWEEN THESE EVENTS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE FA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...A DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DROP
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THE NORTHERN APPALACHIANS AS A
COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS WELL EAST OF DELMARVA. THE LACK OF PHASING OF
THE SYSTEMS WILL KEEP THE BULK OF THE PCPN EAST OF THE FA. ALTHOUGH
SOME MINOR PCPN ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE CLIPPER TYPE
SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH AXIS. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH JUST
CHANCE POPS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WHILE IT WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT...LACK OF QPF LIKELY TO PRODUCE ONLY
A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHS
ON SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST TO
AROUND 50 SOUTHEAST. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FA FROM THE OHIO VALLEY BY
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND SLIDES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD LATE MONDAY
NIGHT. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE BLUSTERY DAY WITH STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS
ACROSS THE FA AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS BETWEEN THE
COASTAL SYSTEM AND HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN
THE 20S. HIGHS ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S
NORTHWEST TO MID 40S SOUTHEAST WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 20S
TO LOWER 30S.

ON TUESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES AND THE SOUTHEAST EDGE OF THE PCPN MAY JUST BRUSH THE
FAR NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FA. EXPECT HIGHS ON TUESDAY TO BE
MILDER AS A SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE FA OUT AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 40S
NORTHWEST TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD
AS A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

THIS AFTERNOON...COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AFFECTING THE TAF SITES. THESE SHOWERS
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 22/23Z BEFORE EXITING EAST OF THE
REGION. HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR VISIBILITIES AT KPSF
FROM 18-20Z TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY BRIEF REDUCTIONS WITH THE SHOWERS.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE BUT BECOME WESTERLY BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON AROUND 5-10 KNOTS.

TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. WITH A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND WEAK
UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALOFT...CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE TAF
SITES AROUND 3-5 KFT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD EXCEPT
AT KPOU WHERE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE
WEST/NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 5 KNOTS TONIGHT INCREASING TO 5-10 KNOTS
THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...ESP AT
NIGHT WHEN VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH ON
THURSDAY...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT ONCE AGAIN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

SOME RAIN SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WILL
CONTINUE OVER FAR EASTERN AREAS...BUT SHOULD BE MOVING EASTWARD
AND OUT OF THE AREA SOON. SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS FAR WESTERN PARTS OF THE
REGION...AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TOMORROW INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALLOWS FOR SOME
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR LATE FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.

ANY PRECIP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT...AND
BASIN AVERAGE AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE ABOUT TWO TENTHS OR LESS THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW RIVER LEVELS TO HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS








000
FXUS61 KALY 292010
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
410 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS AND A FEW LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY START TO
CLEAR OUT TONIGHT AS A COOLER AIR MASS WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE
REGION. SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL BE IN PLACE TOMORROW INTO
FRIDAY...BEFORE EVEN COLDER AIR ARRIVES OVER THE WEEKEND...ALONG
WITH THE CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 410 PM EDT..A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT IS SITUATED JUST EAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT HAS TAKEN ON
ANAFRONT CHARACTERISTICS...AS A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS STILL
REMAINS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION AND CATSKILLS ON EASTWARD. THE FRONT SHOULD SLOWLY SLIDE
EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
END BY EARLY EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES.
ANY ADDITIONAL PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY JUST A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.

THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS IS PROGRESSING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL NEW
YORK...AND SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...ESP FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS. CLOUDS MAY HANG AROUND ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS
AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...WHERE A FEW LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT THANKS TO THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PICKING UP SOME MOISTURE OFF LAKE ONTARIO. OTHERWISE...MOST AREAS
SHOULD BE DRY.

TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY SEASONABLE...AS COLD AIR ADVECTION STARTS TO
BRING COOLER CANADIAN AIR INTO THE AREA. MIN TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MAINLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.

A COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THURSDAY. THIS WILL
KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S FOR VALLEY AREAS...WITH 40S
ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN. WITH THE NW FLOW IN PLACE...SOME CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED...WITH MANY AREAS TURNING OUT MOSTLY CLOUDY. THERE
MAY BE A LINGERING EARLY MORNING SHOWER OVER THE MOHAWK VALLEY DUE
TO THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE EARLY IN THE DAY...OTHERWISE
IT LOOKS TO BE DRY ACROSS THE REGION.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING
AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE AREA. TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE
30S FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S FOR
FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ON
THURSDAY NIGHT...SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY ONCE AGAIN FOR
FRIDAY...AS A SHARPLY DIGGING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY.

THE BEST FORCING WILL GENERALLY BE TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT WE CANNOT RULE OUT SOME RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...ESP LATE. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING ANY SNOW
WILL BE ABOVE 2000 FEET. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOW 40S FOR VALLEY AREAS...WITH LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE
HIGH TERRAIN. PRECIP AMOUNTS LOOK VERY LIGHT...JUST A FEW
HUNDREDTHS AT MOST...SO ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION AT THE HIGH
ELEVATIONS WILL BE LIMITED TO A DUSTING OR LESS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM AND AN OCEAN STORM WILL BE IN FOCUS FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IMPACTING
FAR NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FA ON TUESDAY. IN BETWEEN THESE EVENTS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE FA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...A DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DROP
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THE NORTHERN APPALACHIANS AS A
COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS WELL EAST OF DELMARVA. THE LACK OF PHASING OF
THE SYSTEMS WILL KEEP THE BULK OF THE PCPN EAST OF THE FA. ALTHOUGH
SOME MINOR PCPN ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE CLIPPER TYPE
SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH AXIS. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH JUST
CHANCE POPS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WHILE IT WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT...LACK OF QPF LIKELY TO PRODUCE ONLY
A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHS
ON SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST TO
AROUND 50 SOUTHEAST. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FA FROM THE OHIO VALLEY BY
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND SLIDES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD LATE MONDAY
NIGHT. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE BLUSTERY DAY WITH STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS
ACROSS THE FA AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS BETWEEN THE
COASTAL SYSTEM AND HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN
THE 20S. HIGHS ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S
NORTHWEST TO MID 40S SOUTHEAST WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 20S
TO LOWER 30S.

ON TUESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES AND THE SOUTHEAST EDGE OF THE PCPN MAY JUST BRUSH THE
FAR NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FA. EXPECT HIGHS ON TUESDAY TO BE
MILDER AS A SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE FA OUT AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 40S
NORTHWEST TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD
AS A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

THIS AFTERNOON...COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AFFECTING THE TAF SITES. THESE SHOWERS
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 22/23Z BEFORE EXITING EAST OF THE
REGION. HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR VISIBILITIES AT KPSF
FROM 18-20Z TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY BRIEF REDUCTIONS WITH THE SHOWERS.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE BUT BECOME WESTERLY BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON AROUND 5-10 KNOTS.

TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. WITH A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND WEAK
UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALOFT...CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE TAF
SITES AROUND 3-5 KFT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD EXCEPT
AT KPOU WHERE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE
WEST/NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 5 KNOTS TONIGHT INCREASING TO 5-10 KNOTS
THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...ESP AT
NIGHT WHEN VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH ON
THURSDAY...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT ONCE AGAIN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

SOME RAIN SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WILL
CONTINUE OVER FAR EASTERN AREAS...BUT SHOULD BE MOVING EASTWARD
AND OUT OF THE AREA SOON. SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS FAR WESTERN PARTS OF THE
REGION...AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TOMORROW INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALLOWS FOR SOME
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR LATE FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.

ANY PRECIP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT...AND
BASIN AVERAGE AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE ABOUT TWO TENTHS OR LESS THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW RIVER LEVELS TO HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA








000
FXUS61 KBOX 292006
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
406 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS CONCLUDE BEHIND A COLD FRONT PUSHING OFFSHORE TONIGHT.
SEASONABLE AND DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS INTO THE END OF THE WEEK
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. A COASTAL STORM WILL LIKELY DELIVER A GLANCING
BLOW TO THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...BUT THE OPPORTUNITY
FOR A HIGHER IMPACT STILL EXISTS. MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOLLOWS WITH
A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND BY NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
230 PM UPDATE...

COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS S NEW ENGLAND WITH SHOWERY WEATHER AND
THICKER CLOUDS IN TOW. CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO WARM BENEATH THE
THIN VEIL OF MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS. SW-FLOW CONTINUES TO GUST
IN EXCESS OF 25 MPH ALONG THE S/SE SHORELINE.

MAIN CONCERN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD INTO THIS
EVENING IS THE TIMING OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE MAIN DRIVING FORCE
THAT BEING THE STRETCHED MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. WITH CONDITIONS
WARMING ACROSS SE NEW ENGLAND BENEATH A CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT...ECHO OVERNIGHT FORECASTERS THOUGHTS CONCERNING THE
POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ACROSS SE NEW
ENGLAND. NOTHING SEVERE.

ASIDE...EXPECT A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER DOWNPOURS
TO MARCH ACROSS THE REGION INTO THIS EVENING BENEATH FAVORABLE
DEEP-LAYER ASCENT. FEEL THE HIGH-RES WRF GUIDANCE AND HRRR HAVE A
GOOD HANDLE ON THE PRESENT SITUATION...ALBEIT SLIGHT DIFFERENCES.
COULD SEE THE LINE OF SHOWERS BECOME DIFFUSE WITH ITS TRACK TO THE
S AND E. SPECULATE THIS TO BE CONSEQUENTIAL OF STRETCHED MID-LEVEL
ENERGY AND PERHAPS THE COLD FRONT BECOMING TOO SEPARATED FROM ITS
PARENT MID-LEVEL TROUGH. ALSO PERHAPS AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES
OFFSHORE TOWARDS A BETTER MOIST-INSTABILITY AXIS ACTIVITY ERUPTS
THAT USURPS ACTIVITY TO THE W. ALL SORTS OF FACTORS...BUT ASIDE
NOT A BIG DEAL BUT JUST A SWEEPING WET-WEATHER MAKER.

ALREADY 72-DEGREES HERE AT THE TAUNTON WFO. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE WARMING INTO THE MID-70S FOR S/SE NEW ENGLAND. A BLEND
OF THE RAP APPEARS GOOD ENOUGH WITH REGARDS TO 2M TEMPERATURES
THOUGH NOT HANDLING THE WARM-FRONT ALL THAT WELL.

TONIGHT...

MAIN TROUGH AXIS PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. COLD FRONT
PUSHES OFFSHORE AS CLOUDS AND SHOWERS LINGER REARWARD ACROSS S- AND
E-PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND TOWARDS THURSDAY MORNING. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

LIKELY BLANKET OF MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS AND WET WEATHER WILL
KEEP CONDITIONS MILD TOWARDS SHORES WITH LOWS AROUND THE MID-40S.
ELSEWHERE...GRADUAL CLEARING EXPECTED W TO E AS W-WINDS DRIVE COOLER
AND DRIER AIR ACROSS THE REGION. COOLEST CONDITIONS N AND W YET
WINDS /MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER/ WILL LIKELY LIMIT
EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECTING LOWS AROUND THE UPPER-30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD E. SUBSIDENCE AND SINKING AIR IN
CONTROL OF THE REGIONS WEATHER. WITH A COOLER AIRMASS CONTINUING TO
BUILD WITHIN THE LOW-LEVELS /H85 JUST BELOW THE FREEZING MARK/
EXPECT A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY-LAYER ALLOWING FOR DRIER AIR TO MIX-
DOWN /DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID-30S/ AND DEVELOPMENT OF A SCATTERED
CUMULUS DECK AROUND 5-6 KFT.

HIGHS AROUND THE 50S EXPECTED WHICH IS JUST ABOUT NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. COLD
AIRMASS BELOW FREEZING REMAINS ALOFT. A GOOD CASE FOR EFFECTIVE
RADIATIONAL COOLING...THAT IS IF CLOUDS DO NOT BECOME AN ISSUE.

CONSIDERING DEWPOINTS AROUND THE MID-30S ON THURSDAY...IT IS
POSSIBLE LOCATIONS COULD COOL BELOW THE CROSSOVER THRESHOLD IF THE
CONDITIONS ARE RIGHT AND WE ARE ALLOWED TO RADIATE OUT EFFECTIVELY.
BUT BENEATH CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH WHICH WEAK IMPULSES WILL GLIDE...
THERE IS ALWAYS THAT POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCEMENT OF MID-LEVEL LIFT AND
CONVERGENCE YIELDING A BLANKETING CLOUD BASE.

IF CONDITIONS REMAIN CLEAR...THERE IS ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO SPECULATE
THAT SHALLOW GROUND FOG WILL DEVELOP WHEREVER SOILS ARE SATURATED
/I.E. SWAMPY BOGS/. LOWS WOULD BOTTOM DOWN AROUND THE MID-30S...LOW-
30S FOR THOSE AREAS THAT RADIATE. WARMEST CONDITIONS ALONG THE
SHORES. BUT WILL GO CONSERVATIVE WITH THIS FORECAST CONSIDERING THE
POTENTIAL FOR MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECKS AND HOLD WITH LOWS AROUND THE
UPPER-30S. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR FROST / FREEZE HEADLINES MAY BE
NECESSARY FOR S/E COASTAL MA AND RI.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* COOL ON FRIDAY
* GLANCING BLOW FAVORED SAT/EARLY SUN BUT HIGHER IMPACT POSSIBLE
* BIGGEST CONCERN IS STRONG WINDS LATE SAT/SUN ESP CAPE COD
* ACCUMULATING SNOW IS STILL POSSIBLE BUT A RATHER LOW PROBABILITY
* MUCH MILDER WEATHER RETURNS BY NEXT TUE AND WED

DETAILS...

FRIDAY...

AN ENLONGATED HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL RESULT
IN A RATHER CLOUDY/COOL DAY WITH EASTERLY WINDS.  A SPOT SHOWER AND
PERHAPS EVEN SOME DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST DURING
THE AFTERNOON...BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY.  HIGHS WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...TO THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 50S ELSEWHERE.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS QUITE LOW OVER THIS TIME.  ENSEMBLE
SENSITIVITY PLOTS SHOW THE ENERGY RESPONSIBLE FOR DEVELOPING THE
EVENTUAL STORM IS STILL NEAR THE ARCTIC CIRCLE.  THIS LEAVES PLENTY
OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK/STRENGTH AND IMPACTS ACROSS THE REGION.

WITH THAT SAID...CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS A GLANCING BLOW AND
NOT A DIRECT HIT FOR OUR REGION.  THE BIGGEST CONCERN RIGHT NOW IS
FOR STRONG TO PERHAPS DAMAGING WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CAPE
AND NANTUCKET.  THERE ARE TWO MAIN SHORTWAVES INVOLVED IN STORM
FORMATION.  INITIALLY...MOST MODELS FORM AN ENLONGATED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OR EVEN TWO CENTERS BEFORE CONSOLIDATING INTO ONE STORM.
CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS HAPPENS TOO LATE FOR A SIGNIFICANT
RAIN/SNOW EVENT IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

A BIG CAVEAT IS THAT THIS EVENT IS CURRENTLY PROGGED BETWEEN 72 AND
96 HOUR OUT...WHICH IS QUITE A BIT OF TIME IN THE MODEL WORLD.  IF
THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE IS WEAKER THAN CURRENTLY DEPICTED...THE STORM
WILL INTENSIFY EARLIER AND CLOSER TO THE COAST.  WHILE THIS IS A
LOWER PROBABILITY AT THIS POINT...ITS CERTAINLY IN THE REALM OF
POSSIBILITIES.  WHAT EVER HAPPENS...WE CAN SAY THAT EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND WILL HAVE MORE OF AN IMPACT THAN THE INTERIOR.

PTYPE AND TIMING...

A LOT OF THIS WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAR WEST THE MAIN PRECIPITATION
SHIELD REACHES.  INITIALLY...ALL PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM
OF RAIN OR JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY.  IN FACT...MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN EASTERN NEW ENGLAND...WITH JUST A FEW
SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS IF THE CURRENT TRACK VERIFIES. IF
THE TRACK SHIFTS WEST AND WE END UP GETTING INTO HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION SAT NIGHT AND EARLY SUN...DYNAMIC COOLING WOULD CHANGE
PTYPE TO SNOW AT LEAST IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  AGAIN...BASED ON
EXPECTED TRACK ACCUMULATING SNOW IS A RATHER LOW PROBABILITY...BUT
STILL CAN/T BE RULED OUT. WHAT EVER HAPPENS...MOST PRECIPITATION
SHOULD HAVE EXITED THE REGION BY MID MORNING ON SUNDAY.

STRONG WINDS...

STRONG WINDS ARE THE ONE THING WE ARE FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT WILL
DEVELOP.  EXCELLENT MIXING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE STORM SHOULD
RESULT IN NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH DEVELOPING
LATE SAT AND ESPECIALLY SUN AS MIXING INCREASES.  ACROSS THE CAPE
AND NANTUCKET...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE STORM MAY SEE A PERIOD
OF 50 TO 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.  WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH
OF THE REGION AND PERHAPS HIGH WIND WATCHES/WARNINGS FOR THE CAPE
AND NANTUCKET.  GIVEN MANY TREES STILL HAVE AT LEAST SOME LEAVES ON
THEM...THE RISK FOR TREE DAMAGE AND ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES WILL BE
ENHANCED.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

DEEP UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE REGION AND WE ENTER AN AREA
OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING.  A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND EXPECTED WITH
SOME OF THE COASTAL PLAIN POSSIBLY SEEING HIGHS BREAK 60 BY TUE OR
WED. MAINLY DRY WEATHER OVER THIS TIME...BUT A SPOT SHOWER OR TWO IS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR. LOW-END VFR/MVFR WITH LINE OF -RA EXPECTED TO SWEEP
THE TERMINALS INTO THIS EVENING AHEAD OF WHICH SW-WINDS PREVAIL
GUSTING AROUND 20-25 KTS ALONG THE S/SE SHORELINE. AN ISOLATED
TSRA IS POSSIBLE OVER SE-TERMINALS...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
PREVAIL IN TAF.

TONIGHT...WINDS BACK W BEHIND THE LINE...DIMINISHING. MAINLY VFR.
LOW-END VFR/MVFR CIGS WITH -RA LINGER OVER S AND E TERMINALS INTO
MIDNIGHT...IMPROVING AFTER AS ACTIVITY PUSHES OFFSHORE.

THURSDAY...VFR. LIGHT W-WINDS. SCT CIGS 4-5 KFT ACROSS INTERIOR
TERMINALS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. LIGHT/VRB WINDS. SKC. SHALLOW PATCHY GROUND
FOG POSSIBLE AT PRONE TERMINALS.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  VFR TO START BUT
ONSHORE FLOW MAY RESULT IN MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING FRI AFTERNOON AND
ESPECIALLY FRI NIGHT.  A SPOT SHOWER OR TWO IS POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON UNCERTAINTY OF
TRACK/STRENGTH AND TIMING OF COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.  MOST
LIKELY SCENARIO IS VFR TO BE MIXED IN AT TIMES WITH MVFR SAT INTO
SAT NIGHT. LOWER CONDITIONS MOST LIKELY AT THE COAST WITH RAIN OR
SCATTERED SHOWERS.  LOW PROBABILITY FOR A CHANGE TO SNOW AT THE END.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR BY SUNDAY...BUT NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS EXPECTED.  STRONGEST WINDS CAPE AND
NANTUCKET WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS POSSIBLE.

MONDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR.


&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS STILL AN ISSUE ALONG THE S/SE COASTLINE WITH GUSTS UP TO 25
KTS AND WILL REMAIN SO AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE WATERS THIS EVENING. WINDS BACK W AND DIMINISH ALONG
WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS TOWARDS THURSDAY MORNING. SHOULD SEE
SEAS GRADUALLY DIMINISH BELOW SMALL-CRAFT THRESHOLDS UNDER LIGHT
W-WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. MUCH OF THE DAY THURSDAY...AND ONTO THURSDAY NIGHT...
LOOKS LIKE GOOD BOATING WEATHER.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THOUGH MONDAY...

***STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS AND 20 FOOT SEAS POSSIBLE LATE SAT INTO
  SUNDAY ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLANTIC WATERS***

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL RESULT IN
EASTERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 15 KNOTS.  GRADIENT WILL BE WEAK ENOUGH
THOUGH TO KEEP WINDS SPEEDS/SEAS WELL BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  HIGH IMPACT MARINE EVENT
EXPECTED.  WHILE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING
OF COASTAL LOW PRESSURE...GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS ACROSS
MOST WATERS ARE PRETTY MUCH A SLAM DUNK LATE SAT INTO SUN.  IN
FACT...DECENT CHANCE IN A PERIOD OF STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS WITH 20
FOOT SEAS ACROSS OUR EASTERN ATLANTIC WATERS.  EXACT WIND SPEEDS AND
WAVE HEIGHTS WILL DEPEND UPON THE EXACT TRACK/INTENSITY OF COASTAL
LOW PRESSURE...BUT APPEARS THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF A HIGH IMPACT
MARINE EVENT.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  NORTHWEST SCA WIND GUSTS AND SEAS
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE MUCH OF THE DAY WITH GOOD MIXING IN THE COLD
AIR ADVECTION PATTERN.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES ARE NOT HIGH LATE SAT INTO SUN...BUT THERE
IS EVEN A LOW PROBABILITY FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING.  THE CONCERN
IS FOR THE EARLY MORNING HIGH TIDE ON SUNDAY.  IF WE END UP
REALIZING 20 FOOT SEAS OVER THE OPEN OCEAN AND NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS
OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS...THERE COULD BE SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND
EROSION.  SOME OF THE HOT SPOTS WOULD BE SALISBURY AND PLUM
ISLAND...HULL...SCITUATE AND PERHAPS SANDWICH HARBOR AND NANTUCKET
HARBOR.  AGAIN...IT WILL DEPEND ON EXACT WIND SPEEDS/WAVE HEIGHTS
OUT OVER THE OCEAN DURING THE EARLY MORNING SUNDAY HIGH TIDE
CYCLE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>234-250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...FRANK/SIPPRELL
MARINE...FRANK/SIPPRELL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...FRANK




000
FXUS61 KOKX 292001
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
401 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY
HIGH PRESSURE FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. AN ALBERTA CLIPPER
TYPE LOW WILL HEAD SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE CAROLINA
COAST ON FRIDAY...WHILE ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHERN MID
ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THE FIRST LOW WILL PASS TO THE
SOUTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...WHILE THE SECOND
INTENSIFIES AND ALSO PASSES TO THE SOUTHEAST FROM LATE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST LATER
SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING
WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST.
FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT AS THESE SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA...THEY WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
BECOME NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT.

BEHIND THE FRONT...EXPECT COLDER AND DRIER AIR TO MOVE IN FROM THE
WEST AS SKIES CLEAR.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS THROUGH THE DAY.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

MAV/MET TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND WAS ACCEPTED.
EXPECT HIGHS ON THURSDAY TO CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLD WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE
LOWER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS STILL IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A POTENT NRN STREAM
VORT...NOW OVER NUNAVUT IN NORTHERN CANADA...WILL DIVE SE TO THE
GREAT LAKES BY FRI AND CARVE OUT A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH AND
SIGNIFICANT CLOSED LOW. THE CLOSED LOW WILL CONTINUE SE TO THE
CAROLINAS ON SAT...THEN PASS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WHILE ALSO
NEGATIVELY TILTING THE PARENT UPPER TROUGH.

THE APPROACH OF THIS COMBO OF UPPER SYSTEMS WILL PROMOTE WEAK
CYCLOGENESIS ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. AS THIS
LOW APPROACHES...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN EASTERLY AND BEGIN TO
MOISTEN ON FRI...AND A WEAK LEADING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
INTERACTING WITH A WEAK LOW LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING NW FROM THE
INCIPIENT OFFSHORE LOW TO WARRANT SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS MAINLY OVER LONG ISLAND BY LATE DAY FRI OR EARLY FRI
EVENING...THEN INCREASING POP TO CHANCE AND THEN LIKELY MOST
PLACES DURING THE DAY ON SAT AND CAT ACROSS ERN LONG ISLAND AS THE
OFFSHORE LOW MAKES ITS CLOSEST PASS.

THEN AS THE POTENT CLOSED LOW ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE PARENT UPPER
TROUGH...A STRONGER LOW SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST LATE DAY SAT INTO SAT EVENING...AND THEN HEAD NE...PASSING
OUTSIDE THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE
CLOSED LOW SHOULD REMAIN A SEPARATE ENTITY FROM THE LARGER
TROUGH...AND THIS LACK OF PHASING SHOULD PRECLUDE THE AREA FROM
SEEING HEAVY PRECIP...SO ACTUALLY HAVE DECREASING POP DURING SAT
NIGHT. ENOUGH COLD AIR SHOULD STILL POUR IN BEHIND THE LOW TO
POSSIBLY CAUSE ANY LINGERING PRECIP TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO
SNOW...BUT WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION. THE BIGGEST IMPACTS
FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A SHOT OF COLD AND WIND FROM SAT NIGHT
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT TEMPS TO BE ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE BLEND... WITH LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE 30S AREA-WIDE...THEN
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S ON SUNDAY AS WINDS GUST CLOSE TO 40
MPH...WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE 30S. TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD FALL
TO AOB FREEZING EVERYWHERE EXCEPT NYC SUNDAY NIGHT.

AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS EARLY NEXT WEEK AND HEIGHTS SLOWLY
RISE ALOFT...EXPECT GRADUAL MODERATION...WITH TEMPS STILL BELOW
NORMAL MON-TUE...THEN REACHING NEAR NORMAL LEVELS ON WED AS A WARM
FRONT PASSES WELL TO THE NORTH. AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT MAY
BRING ISOLD SHOWERS ON WED.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS. S-SW WINDS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WILL BACK TO THE WEST...AND THEN TO THE NORTHWEST WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. GUSTS TO 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE FOR A FEW
HOURS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT WINDS SHOULD SETTLE DOWN TO
8-10 KT BY 22Z. NW WINDS DIMINISH TO 5-8 KT THIS EVENING.

MAINLY VFR FORECAST. MODELS INDICATING THAT SHOWERS ARE DRYING UP
AS THEY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...BUT OCNL MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...VFR. NW WINDS 5-10 KT ON THURSDAY...AND THEN
E-NE WINDS 5-10 KT ON FRIDAY.
.FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER LIKELY. PRECIP MAINLY
RAIN...BUT SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR SATURDAY NIGHT. NE-N
WINDS 15-20G20-25KT.
.SUNDAY...IMPROVING CONDS. NW WINDS 15-20G20-30KT.
.MONDAY...VFR. WEST WINDS 5-10 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WATERS THIS EVENING. EXPECT SMALL
CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS...AHEAD OF AND WITH THE
FRONT. SEAS WILL CLIMB TO 5 FT AND GUSTS WILL REACH 25 KT. BEHIND
THE FRONT...WIND DIMINISH AND SEAS SUBSIDE. SMALL CRAFTS ARE UP ON
THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS UNTIL 6PM AND ON THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
OCEAN TIL 2AM.

ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND
GRADUALLY DIMINISH. IN ADDITION...SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO BELOW 5 FT.
MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE AREA WATERS FOR
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

SCA CONDS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ON ALL WATERS FROM LATE FRI NIGHT
INTO SAT MORNING AS NE FLOW STRENGTHENS...THEN EXPECT NORTHERLY
GALES ON THE OCEAN BY SAT AFTERNOON...AND N-NW GALES ON ALL WATERS
ESPECIALLY THE OCEAN AND THE ERN SOUND/BAYS SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
CONDS SHOULD THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FROM SUNDAY NIGHT ON...WITH
SUB-SCA CONDS ON THE SOUND/HARBOR/BAYS BY MON MORNING...AND ON THE
OCEAN BY MON NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH
THE SHOWERS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

LIGHT PRECIP EXPECTED FROM FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
IF OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS CLOSER TO THE COAST SAT NIGHT...
EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND SE CT COULD SEE MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
AMTS CLOSER TO 1/2 INCH. NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC IMPACT
EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...BC
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...BC/GOODMAN
HYDROLOGY...BC/GOODMAN





000
FXUS61 KBOX 291842
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
242 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

SHOWERS CONCLUDE BEHIND A COLD FRONT PUSHING OFFSHORE TONIGHT.
SEASONABLE AND DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS INTO THE END OF THE WEEK
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. A DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM OFF THE CAROLINAS
WILL PASS OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
EASTERN USA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

230 PM UPDATE...

COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS S NEW ENGLAND WITH SHOWERY WEATHER AND
THICKER CLOUDS IN TOW. CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO WARM BENEATH THE
THIN VEIL OF MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS. SW-FLOW CONTINUES TO GUST
IN EXCESS OF 25 MPH ALONG THE S/SE SHORELINE.

MAIN CONCERN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD INTO THIS
EVENING IS THE TIMING OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE MAIN DRIVING FORCE
THAT BEING THE STRETCHED MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. WITH CONDITIONS
WARMING ACROSS SE NEW ENGLAND BENEATH A CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT...ECHO OVERNIGHT FORECASTERS THOUGHTS CONCERNING THE
POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ACROSS SE NEW
ENGLAND. NOTHING SEVERE.

ASIDE...EXPECT A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER DOWNPOURS
TO MARCH ACROSS THE REGION INTO THIS EVENING BENEATH FAVORABLE
DEEP-LAYER ASCENT. FEEL THE HIGH-RES WRF GUIDANCE AND HRRR HAVE A
GOOD HANDLE ON THE PRESENT SITUATION...ALBEIT SLIGHT DIFFERENCES.
COULD SEE THE LINE OF SHOWERS BECOME DIFFUSE WITH ITS TRACK TO THE
S AND E. SPECULATE THIS TO BE CONSEQUENTIAL OF STRETCHED MID-LEVEL
ENERGY AND PERHAPS THE COLD FRONT BECOMING TOO SEPARATED FROM ITS
PARENT MID-LEVEL TROUGH. ALSO PERHAPS AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES
OFFSHORE TOWARDS A BETTER MOIST-INSTABILITY AXIS ACTIVITY ERUPTS
THAT USURPS ACTIVITY TO THE W. ALL SORTS OF FACTORS...BUT ASIDE
NOT A BIG DEAL BUT JUST A SWEEPING WET-WEATHER MAKER.

ALREADY 72-DEGREES HERE AT THE TAUNTON WFO. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE WARMING INTO THE MID-70S FOR S/SE NEW ENGLAND. A BLEND
OF THE RAP APPEARS GOOD ENOUGH WITH REGARDS TO 2M TEMPERATURES
THOUGH NOT HANDLING THE WARM-FRONT ALL THAT WELL.

TONIGHT...

MAIN TROUGH AXIS PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. COLD FRONT
PUSHES OFFSHORE AS CLOUDS AND SHOWERS LINGER REARWARD ACROSS S- AND
E-PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND TOWARDS THURSDAY MORNING. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

LIKELY BLANKET OF MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS AND WET WEATHER WILL
KEEP CONDITIONS MILD TOWARDS SHORES WITH LOWS AROUND THE MID-40S.
ELSEWHERE...GRADUAL CLEARING EXPECTED W TO E AS W-WINDS DRIVE COOLER
AND DRIER AIR ACROSS THE REGION. COOLEST CONDITIONS N AND W YET
WINDS /MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER/ WILL LIKELY LIMIT
EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECTING LOWS AROUND THE UPPER-30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

THURSDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD E. SUBSIDENCE AND SINKING AIR IN
CONTROL OF THE REGIONS WEATHER. WITH A COOLER AIRMASS CONTINUING TO
BUILD WITHIN THE LOW-LEVELS /H85 JUST BELOW THE FREEZING MARK/
EXPECT A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY-LAYER ALLOWING FOR DRIER AIR TO MIX-
DOWN /DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID-30S/ AND DEVELOPMENT OF A SCATTERED
CUMULUS DECK AROUND 5-6 KFT.

HIGHS AROUND THE 50S EXPECTED WHICH IS JUST ABOUT NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. COLD
AIRMASS BELOW FREEZING REMAINS ALOFT. A GOOD CASE FOR EFFECTIVE
RADIATIONAL COOLING...THAT IS IF CLOUDS DO NOT BECOME AN ISSUE.

CONSIDERING DEWPOINTS AROUND THE MID-30S ON THURSDAY...IT IS
POSSIBLE LOCATIONS COULD COOL BELOW THE CROSSOVER THRESHOLD IF THE
CONDITIONS ARE RIGHT AND WE ARE ALLOWED TO RADIATE OUT EFFECTIVELY.
BUT BENEATH CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH WHICH WEAK IMPULSES WILL GLIDE...
THERE IS ALWAYS THAT POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCEMENT OF MID-LEVEL LIFT AND
CONVERGENCE YIELDING A BLANKETING CLOUD BASE.

IF CONDITIONS REMAIN CLEAR...THERE IS ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO SPECULATE
THAT SHALLOW GROUND FOG WILL DEVELOP WHEREVER SOILS ARE SATURATED
/I.E. SWAMPY BOGS/. LOWS WOULD BOTTOM DOWN AROUND THE MID-30S...LOW-
30S FOR THOSE AREAS THAT RADIATE. WARMEST CONDITIONS ALONG THE
SHORES. BUT WILL GO CONSERVATIVE WITH THIS FORECAST CONSIDERING THE
POTENTIAL FOR MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECKS AND HOLD WITH LOWS AROUND THE
UPPER-30S. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR FROST / FREEZE HEADLINES MAY BE
NECESSARY FOR S/E COASTAL MA AND RI.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

*** LONG-TERM DISCUSSION FROM OVERNIGHT SHIFT ***
*** FORECAST DISCUSSION STILL UNDER DEVELOPMENT ***

BIG PICTURE...

29/00Z GUIDANCE SUITE CONTINUES TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.
THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF ROOM FOR IMPROVEMENT REGARDING THE
DETAILS. THE WEATHER THIS WEEK WILL BE DRIVEN BY A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED...ANOMALOUS PATTERN. THE CORE OF AN OFFSHORE LOW
PRESSURE WAS ABOUT 1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL. THE
CORE OF THE 500 MB LOW WAS NEARLY 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW
NORMAL.

THIS MEANS WE NEED TO KEEP THE GUIDANCE DETAILS IN PERSPECTIVE...
AS MODELS TYPICALLY DO NOT HANDLE EXTREME EVENTS PERFECTLY. IT IS
ENCOURAGING TO SEE THE GUIDANCE CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION THOUGH.
WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR A CONSENSUS MEAN SOLUTION TO SMOOTH OVER
SOME OF THE MINOR DIFFERENCES. WE EXPECT BETTER AGREEMENT OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS NOW THAT THE ENERGY WHICH WILL PRODUCE THIS COASTAL
STORM WILL BE OVER LAND AND BETTER SAMPLED.

THE 29/00 ECMWF STILL REMAINS SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST AND QUICKER
WITH IT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE. THAT SAID...ITS TRACK IS STILL EAST
OF 70W LONGITUDE AS IT PASSES BY OUR REGION. THIS SHOULD MEAN THE
GREATEST EFFECTS SHOULD BE FELT TOWARD THE COASTS.

THE DAILIES...

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...COOLING ALOFT WITH WEAK RIDGING NEAR
THE SURFACE. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE WEATHER DRY INTO AT LEAST THE
FIRST PART OF FRIDAY. AS A SHORTWAVE DIVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES
TROUGH AND TURNS THE UPPER FLOW OVER US MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.
MEANWHILE WEAK RIDGING BUILDS TO OUR NORTH AND TURNS OUR WIND
EAST OR NORTHEAST.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...THIS WILL BE THE MAIN PERIOD OF RISK FOR
PRECIPITATION DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. STRONG MID
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE ATLANTIC
COAST. UPPER JET FROM CENTRAL CANADA FEEDS AROUND THIS UPPER
TROUGH WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION MOVING OVER THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY. THIS SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF A COASTAL LOW
DEVELOPING. STILL SOME QUESTIONS WITH THE TRACK...WHICH WILL BE A
KEY INGREDIENT TO DETERMINING PRECIPITATION TYPE.

CONFIDENT THAT THERE WILL BE UNSETTLED WEATHER THIS WEEKEND...WITH
GREATEST RISK ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN AND DIMINISHING POPS
FARTHER NORTHWEST. WILL REFLECT THIS WITH LIKELY POPS SOUTHEAST
GRADING TO CHANCE POPS NORTHWEST. LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
PRECIPITATION TYPE. MUCH OF THIS TIME SHOULD BE RAIN. WITH TEMPERATURES
FORECAST TO FALL TO FREEZING OR BELOW SATURDAY NIGHT...THE RESULT
WILL BE SOME SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.
LINGERING CLOUDS BENEATH THE COLD POOL ALOFT...ESPECIALLY ON
MONDAY. OTHERWISE FAIR AND DRY WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL
BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR. LOW-END VFR/MVFR WITH LINE OF -RA EXPECTED TO SWEEP
THE TERMINALS INTO THIS EVENING AHEAD OF WHICH SW-WINDS PREVAIL
GUSTING AROUND 20-25 KTS ALONG THE S/SE SHORELINE. AN ISOLATED
TSRA IS POSSIBLE OVER SE-TERMINALS...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
PREVAIL IN TAF.

TONIGHT...WINDS BACK W BEHIND THE LINE...DIMINISHING. MAINLY VFR.
LOW-END VFR/MVFR CIGS WITH -RA LINGER OVER S AND E TERMINALS INTO
MIDNIGHT...IMPROVING AFTER AS ACTIVITY PUSHES OFFSHORE.

THURSDAY...VFR. LIGHT W-WINDS. SCT CIGS 4-5 KFT ACROSS INTERIOR
TERMINALS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. LIGHT/VRB WINDS. SKC. SHALLOW PATCHY GROUND
FOG POSSIBLE AT PRONE TERMINALS.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND
PRECIPITATION TYPE. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION
OCCURRENCE. CIGS/VSBYS LOWERING TO IFR COASTAL PLAIN AND MVFR
NORTHWEST. COASTAL STORM PASSES BY LATER SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ESPECIALLY KMHT-KORH-KBAF-KBDL.
PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF SUNDAY. NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS WITH GUSTS
ALONG THE COAST 25-35 KNOTS SATURDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY WITH
GUSTS 25 TO 30 KNOTS INLAND AND 30 TO 40 KNOTS ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS STILL AN ISSUE ALONG THE S/SE COASTLINE WITH GUSTS UP TO 25
KTS AND WILL REMAIN SO AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE WATERS THIS EVENING. WINDS BACK W AND DIMINISH ALONG
WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS TOWARDS THURSDAY MORNING. SHOULD SEE
SEAS GRADUALLY DIMINISH BELOW SMALL-CRAFT THRESHOLDS UNDER LIGHT
W-WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. MUCH OF THE DAY THURSDAY...AND ONTO THURSDAY NIGHT...
LOOKS LIKE GOOD BOATING WEATHER.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE WATERS. NORTHWEST
WINDS THURSDAY BECOME NORTHEAST FRIDAY BUT REMAIN BELOW 20 KNOTS.
SEAS GENERALLY LESS THAN 5 FEET.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...COASTAL LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE
CAROLINAS AND MOVES UP THE COAST. MODERATE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
EXACT TRACK AND TIMING...WITH THE GENERAL CONSENSUS SOLUTION
STAYING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. AT LEAST
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS SATURDAY 25 TO 35 KNOTS SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST 30 TO
40 KNOTS SUNDAY. A GALE WATCH/GALE WARNING MAY EVENTUALLY BE
NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>234-250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235-
     237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BELK/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/SIPPRELL
MARINE...BELK/SIPPRELL




000
FXUS61 KOKX 291745
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
145 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE AREA TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A
COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE TRI-STATE THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A
FRONTAL SYSTEM CROSSES THE AREA FRIDAY...THEN MERGES WITH AN
EXISTING STATIONARY FRONT OFFSHORE...TO PRODUCE AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS LOW
THEN TRACKS NORTHEAST TO THE GULF OF MAINE BY SUNDAY MORNING.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN TO THE WEST INTO
MONDAY...THEN TO THE SOUTH INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
REFLECT CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TIMING WITH RAIN SHOWERS.

SHOWERS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY REACH THE FAR WESTERN ZONES...AND
FORECAST GUIDANCE SHOWING THE SHOWERS BREAKING UP IS AT MOVES
EAST. EXPECT POPS TO GRADUALLY LOWER AS THE PRECIPITATION MOVES
THROUGH.

THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AS KEPT TEMPERATURES MILD TODAY WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY DEEPENS AND BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED.
ANY -SHRA WILL TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND BY LATE
THIS EVENING.

THE NORTHWEST FLOW DOES NOT INITIATE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...HELPING
USHER IN COLDER AIR. USED MAV GUIDANCE FOR LOWS AS THEY HAVE BEEN
RELATIVELY CLOSER TO PREVIOUS OBSERVED MIN TEMPS.

FOR THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST WITH SOME
SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT. NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS THROUGH THE
DAY...MAKING FOR DOWNSLOPE FLOW. THEREFORE...EXPECTING COASTAL
LOCATIONS TO BE WARMER THAN INTERIOR LOCATIONS. A COMBINATION OF
MAV AND ECS GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR HIGH TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH
ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE KEEPING THINGS DRY. A WEAK 700-500 HPA
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FAR SE ZONES FRIDAY...WARRANTING SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS THERE BY AFTERNOON. NOTE THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH
ECMWF/NAM/GFS/SREF/CMC ALL SHOWING LIGHT QPF DEVELOPING NEAR/OVER
THE TWIN FORKS OF LONG ISLAND FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A DEVELOPING 850-500 HPA CLOSED
LOW DIVES SE FROM THE UPPER OHIO RIVER VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH
ASSOCIATED SURFACE SYSTEM PASSING TO THE SE OF THE AREA. APPEARS
WILL SEE SUFFICIENT WEAK DYNAMICAL FORCING TO PRODUCE ISOLD-SCT
-SHRA OVER THE AREA AS A RESULT.

THIS CLOSED LOW BECOMES A CUTOFF LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
SATURDAY...THAT TRACKS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK
SATURDAY NIGHT. NOTE THE GFS FOR NOW APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER IN HOW
FAR E IT KEEPS ITS PRECIPITATION SHIELD...SO LEANED TOWARDS A
NON-GFS SOLUTION FOR POPS WITH THIS SYSTEM. BASED ON THIS HAVE
LIKELY POPS OVER ROUGHLY THE SE 1/2 OF THE CWA AND HAVE CHANCE POPS
ELSEWHERE. THERE IS SOME INDICATIONS THAT NW PORTIONS OF THE CWA
COULD ULTIMATELY END UP DRY FROM THIS SYSTEM - HOWEVER DO NOT HAVE
CONFIDENCE TO GO BELOW CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME. APPEARS SOLUTION
FOR THIS SYSTEM IS CONVERGING TO ONE WHERE FOR THE MOST PART THE
COLD AIR DOES NOT ARRIVE IN ENOUGH TIME TO PRODUCE ANY WIDESPREAD
SNOW OVER THE AREA...HOWEVER DO HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR A
RAIN/SNOW MIX SATURDAY NIGHT FOR AREAS N OF LONG ISLAND
SOUND...AND POSSIBLY OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY AND WESTERN NE NJ...IF THE COLD AIR MOVES IN FAST ENOUGH
BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END THERE. FOR NOW...CANNOT
RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY THAT...IN PARTICULAR HIGHER ELEVATIONS -
SAY THOSE ABOVE 1000-1500 FT - COULD HAVE A PERIOD OF ALL SNOW
SATURDAY NIGHT DEPENDING ON THE EXACT INTENSITY OF THE
PRECIPITATION. AS IS USUAL IN THESE RAIN/SNOW CASES...THE HEAVIER
THE RATE OF PRECIPITATION FALL THE GREATER THE LIKELIHOOD FOR ALL
SNOW...AND THE LIGHTER THE RATE OF PRECIPITATION THE GREATER THE
LIKELIHOOD FOR ALL RAIN. ACROSS NYC/LONG ISLAND AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF NE NJ IT APPEARS THAT THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT MAINLY
IF NOT ALL RAIN...SO HAVE FORECASTED ACCORDINGLY. ON THE WHOLE
CURRENT INDICATIONS SUPPORT THE IDEA OF MOST AREAS THAT DO SEE ANY
SNOWFALL RECEIVING LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY LIGHT ACCUMULATION - AND THEN MAINLY ON GRASSY
SURFACES IF AT ALL - BEING AT ELEVATIONS MAINLY ABOVE 1000-1500
FT.

GUSTY NE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY E ZONES SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 TO MAYBE 40 MPH POSSIBLE....WITH GUSTS
OF 20 TO MAYBE 30 MPH POSSIBLE OVER W ZONES.

THE STORM EXITS FAIRLY QUICKLY TO THE NE SUNDAY...FOR NOW HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR -SHRA/-SHSN OVER FAR EASTERN ZONES SUNDAY
MORNING...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SUNDAY ENDED UP BEING DRY
THROUGHOUT. SUNDAY WILL BE QUITE GUSTY WITH NW WINDS GUSTING UP TO
30-40 MPH QUITE POSSIBLE.

DEEP LAYERED RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY...THEN OVER THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...THEN EXISTS TO THE
EAST ON TUESDAY. SO HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST IN THIS TIME FRAME
FOR NOW. DEPENDING ON EXACTLY HOW FAST THE RIDGE EXITS TO THE
EAST...COULD END UP NEEDING POPS BY LATE TUESDAY AHEAD OF A NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME
TO WARRANT MAKING THAT CHANGE NOW.

FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE LONG RANGE:
FOR LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT - NOTING SOME POTENTIAL FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING - USED THE MINIMUM OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE AND NAM W-METER
TEMPERATURES...EXCEPT OVER THE NYC METRO WHERE A BLEND OF THE THREE
WAS USED. EXPECT VALUES TO BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

ON FRIDAY A BLEND OF MAV AND MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES AND MIXING DOWN FROM 900 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WAS
USED FOR HIGHS. READINGS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

FOR LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT A BLEND OF MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE
WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES WAS USED...WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE
AROUND NORMAL IN THE IMMEDIATE NYC METRO...AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
ELSEWHERE.

FROM SATURDAY-TUESDAY A BLEND OF MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE
WAS USED...WITH ECMWF 2-METER TEMPERATURES BLENDED IN SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT TO BETTER REFLECT IMPACT OF PRECIPITATION. HIGHS WILL
RUN AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AND LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS
MONDAY WILL RUN WELL BELOW NORMAL...LOWS MONDAY NIGHT SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL...AND HIGHS ON TUESDAY NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY JUST WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER WILL CONTINUE
TO WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BACK TO THE WEST...AND
THEN TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT. A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KT ARE
POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT WINDS
SHOULD SETTLE DOWN TO 8-10 KT BY 21-22Z. NW WINDS DIMINISH TO 5-8
KT THIS EVENING.

MAINLY VFR FORECAST. MODELS INDICATING THAT SHOWERS ARE DRYING UP
AS THEY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...BUT OCNL MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...VFR. NW WINDS 5-10 KT ON THURSDAY...AND THEN
E-NE WINDS 5-10 KT ON FRIDAY.
.FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER LIKELY. PRECIP MAINLY
RAIN...BUT SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR SATURDAY NIGHT. NE-N
WINDS 15-20G20-25KT.
.SUNDAY...IMPROVING CONDS. NW WINDS 15-20G20-30KT.
.MONDAY...VFR. WEST WINDS 5-10 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BASED
ON THE NEW 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE. HAVE EXTENDED THE TIME OF THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN OCEAN ZONES UNTIL 06Z. LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT SEA WILL LINGER AROUND 5 FT A BIT LONGER THAN
FORECAST. OTHERWISE...A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS TODAY
AND MOVES ACROSS TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST
TODAY...THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECT WINDS
AND SEAS TO SUBSIDE BEHIND THE FRONT.

A RELATIVELY RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS WILL
PRODUCE WINDS OF 10KT OR LESS OVER THE WATERS AROUND LONG ISLAND
FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. WINDS INCREASE TO 10-20KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH A CHANCE OF SMALL CRAFT
GUSTS...MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS.

WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE PASSING OF A
STRENGTHENING COASTAL LOW TO THE SE. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ON ALL WATERS FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY. THIS THREAT WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THE
SHOWERS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR UP TO A HALF AN INCH OR SO OF QPF TO FALL
FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC
IMPACT IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/JM
NEAR TERM...BC/MALOIT/JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...BC/MALOIT/JM
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/JM












000
FXUS61 KALY 291733
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
133 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS AND THEN TO THE EAST OF THE
REGION TODAY...THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWERS OVER EASTERN NEW YORK AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...A COOLER AIR MASS WILL
MOVE IN TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH MORE CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR
MORE SHOWERS...BUT MAINLY IN AREAS TO THE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 133 PM EDT...RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE FOR THE EASTERN PORTION
OF THE REGION. MOST OF THE AREA IS NOW BEHIND THE SFC COLD
FRONT...BUT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PARALLEL TO THE SFC
BOUNDARY...SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE CONTINUING ON THE COOL SIDE
OF THE BOUNDARY AS WELL. THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY PROGRESS EASTWARD AND END BY THE
LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING HOURS. IT WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN CLOUDY
OVER THE ENTIRE AREA...AS VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY STILL SHOWS
THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS WAY BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS WESTERN
NY/WESTERN PA.

TEMPS HAVE ALREADY REACHED THEIR MAX VALUES IN MOST LOCATIONS DUE
TO THE BOUNDARY ALREADY CROSSING...AND TEMPS LOOK TO HOLD STEADY
AND THEN SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...AS WEAK
COLD AIR ADVECTION BECOMES UNDERWAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL
TROF ARE FORECAST TO SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD WITH AN ADDITIONAL SHOT OF
COLDER AIR TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A FEW MORE SHOWERS DOWNWIND
OF LAKE ONTARIO AND POSSIBLY ACROSS OTHER HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS.
OTHERWISE...A PARTLY TO MOCLDY SKIES TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE 30 TO 40 AND SOME OF THE SHOWERS MAY CHANGE TO
SNOW SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT. LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

ON FRIDAY...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE INTENSE UPPER LEVEL LOW
DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MAKES ITS
WAY INTO THE REGION. MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY...BUT THE
ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY SHOULD GET SOME MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS ON
FRIDAY AND HAVE FORECAST 40 TO 50 PERCENT POPS THERE.
ELSEWHERE...DRY TO 30 PERCENT POPS HAVE BEEN FORECAST. HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A STORM SYSTEM MAY GRAZE THE FORECAST AREA EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...AS
THE GENERAL MEDIUM GUIDANCE CONSENSUS IS FOR A COASTAL SYSTEM TO BE
OFFSHORE WITH MINIMAL IMPACT...AND MODERATING TEMPS AND DRY WX IS
EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...A PROGRESSIVE...DIGGING...UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE ERN THIRD OF THE CONUS...AS A
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL SET UP OVER THE PLAINS AND THE CENTRAL
CANADIAN PRAIRIES.  THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECASTED TO BECOME
NEGATIVELY TILTED AND CLOSED OFF SOUTH OF THE REGION NEAR THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES.  SOME SCT SHOWERS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE SW FLOW
IN ADVANCE OF THE DIGGING TROUGH DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
IN THE VICINITY OF NY AND NEW ENGLAND.  COLDER AIR BEING DRAWN IN
FROM THE NORTH MAY CHANGE THE SHOWERS TO SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SRN
DACKS...AND SRN GREENS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE SYNOPTIC FORCING
LOOKS WEAK AT THIS TIME.  IT WILL BE CHILLY WITH TEMPS IN THE MID TO
U30S OVER MOST OF THE REGION WITH SOME U20S TO L30S OVER THE SRN
DACKS...ERN CATSKILLS...AND SRN GREENS.  SATURDAY...ACCORDING TO THE
GFS/ECMWF/ENSEMBLES/CMC GUIDANCE...THE H500 CUTOFF MOVE NORTHEAST
OF ERN NC WITH A SFC LOW PASSING SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND.
MINIMAL IMPACT IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME WITH SCT LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS...PERHAPS SOME SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ELEVATED TERRAIN... AS
THE OCEANIC STORM DRIFTS OUT TO SEA TOO FAR FOR A MAJOR IMPACT IN
THE ALY FCST AREA.  IT WILL BE WINDY AND COOL WITH HIGHS SATURDAY IN
THE LOWER TO MID 40S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U30S TO AROUND 40F OVER
THE HILLS AND MTNS.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...A STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW OF COLD AIR
SETS UP OVER ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND.  THE IMPRESSIVE OCEAN
CYCLONE LOOKS TO BE TOO FAR OFF THE COAST FOR A SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT...BUT IT WILL CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED TO SEE IF THE MID AND
UPPER LEVEL POTENTIAL PHASING OF THE STREAMS CAN OCCUR CLOSER TO THE
COASTLINE.  H850 TEMPS FALL TO -5C TO -10C BY  DAYBREAK SUNDAY.
AFTER LOWS IN THE 20S TO L30S WITH SCT FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS
AROUND...COLD...BLUSTERY...AND DRY WX IS THE TREND. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
WILL STRUGGLE TO GET TO 40F IN MOST LOCATIONS.  WIDESPREAD 30S ARE
ANTICIPATED WITH SOME U20S OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND SRN GREENS.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS
DOWNSTREAM...AS THE HIGH AMPLITUDE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEAST.  FAIR AND DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FOR TUE NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPS GRADUALLY MODERATE BACK TO NORMAL READINGS
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AS THE SFC HIGH RIDGES IN FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION...AND DRIFTS OFFSHORE...WITH A WEAK WARM FRONT WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.  HIGHS ON
TUESDAY REBOUND INTO THE LOWER TO M50S IN THE VALLEYS...AND M40S TO
AROUND 50F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD
AS A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

THIS AFTERNOON...COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AFFECTING THE TAF SITES. THESE SHOWERS
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 22/23Z BEFORE EXITING EAST OF THE
REGION. HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR VISIBILITIES AT KPSF
FROM 18-20Z TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY BRIEF REDUCTIONS WITH THE SHOWERS.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE BUT BECOME WESTERLY BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON AROUND 5-10 KNOTS.

TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. WITH A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND WEAK
UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALOFT...CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE TAF
SITES AROUND 3-5 KFT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD EXCEPT
AT KPOU WHERE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE
WEST/NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 5 KNOTS TONIGHT INCREASING TO 5-10 KNOTS
THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY TO THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS AND THEN EXIT THE REGION
TODAY WITH SOME SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TODAY 5 TO 15 MPH
WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 20 MPH. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TONIGHT.

THE RH VALUES WILL 45 TO 60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN RISE TO 80
TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK.

RIVERS FLOWS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THE NEXT FEW DAYS DESPITE THE
SHOWERS TODAY ALONG A COLD FRONT. BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL WILL BE IN
THE TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH RANGE.

DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR MOST OF THE HSA TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATER FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND AS A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS WELL EAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. AT THIS TIME IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/BGM
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA







000
FXUS61 KBOX 291724
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
124 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. THE FRONT
WILL PUSH OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHICH WILL BRING DRY...SEASONABLE
CONDITIONS. A DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM OFF THE CAROLINAS WILL
PASS OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
EASTERN USA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

130 PM UPDATE...

COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS S NEW ENGLAND WITH SHOWERY WEATHER AND
THICKER CLOUDS IN TOW. FOG HAS ALL BUT DISSIPATED BENEATH THE THIN
VEIL OF MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS AS ITS TRANSPARENCY HAS ALLOWED
CONDITIONS TO WARM RESULTING IN THE WARM-FRONT TO PUSH N INTO NH
AND ME...AIDED BY SW-FLOW WHICH CONTINUES TO GUST IN EXCESS OF 25
MPH ALONG THE S/SE SHORELINE.

MAIN CONCERN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD INTO THIS
EVENING IS THE TIMING OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE MAIN DRIVING FORCE
THAT BEING THE STRETCHED MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. WITH CONDITIONS
WARMING ACROSS SE NEW ENGLAND BENEATH A CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT...ECHO THE OVERNIGHT FORECASTERS THOUGHTS CONCERNING
THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ACROSS THE
AFOREMENTIONED REGION. NOTHING SEVERE.

ASIDE...EXPECT A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER DOWNPOURS
TO MARCH ACROSS THE REGION INTO THIS EVENING BENEATH FAVORABLE
DEEP-LAYER ASCENT. FEEL THE HIGH-RES WRF GUIDANCE AND HRRR HAVE A
GOOD HANDLE ON THE PRESENT SITUATION...ALBEIT SLIGHT DIFFERENCES.
COULD SEE THE LINE OF SHOWERS BECOME DIFFUSE WITH ITS TRACK TO THE
S AND E. SPECULATE THIS TO BE CONSEQUENTIAL OF STRETCHED MID-LEVEL
ENERGY AND PERHAPS THE COLD FRONT BECOMING TOO SEPARATED FROM ITS
PARENT MID-LEVEL TROUGH. ALSO PERHAPS AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES
OFFSHORE TOWARDS A BETTER MOIST-INSTABILITY AXIS ACTIVITY ERUPTS
THAT USURPS ACTIVITY TO THE W. ALL SORTS OF FACTORS...BUT ASIDE
NOT A BIG DEAL BUT JUST A SWEEPING WET-WEATHER MAKER.

ALREADY 72-DEGREES HERE AT THE TAUNTON WFO. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE WARMING INTO THE MID-70S FOR SE NEW ENGLAND. A BLEND OF
THE HRRR/RAP APPEARS SPOT-ON WITH REGARDS TO 2M TEMPERATURES
THOUGH NOT HANDLING THE WARM-FRONT ALL THAT WELL...AND HENCE THE
HEADACHES WITH THIS MORNINGS FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...

TONIGHT...
THE H5 LONG WAVE TROUGH PUSHES E...AND APPROACHING WESTERN AREAS
BY EARLY THURSDAY. SCT SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH MIDNIGHT OR SO
ACROSS E MA/RI/NE CT...BUT SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER THAT. H85 TEMPS
WILL STEADILY DROP OVERNIGHT...BUT SOME CLOUDS WILL LINGER. BY
SUNRISE...H85 TEMPS FALL TO -2C ACROSS WESTERN AREAS TO +2C ACROSS
THE CAPE. WHILE NW WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...EXPECT THEM TO STIR
ENOUGH NOT TOO ALLOW RADIATIONAL COOLING WHERE SKIES BECOME PARTLY
CLOUDY WELL INLAND. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES TO BETWEEN 45 AND 50 ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.

THURSDAY...
SURFACE HIGH RIDGE BUILDS NE INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
DAY WHILE THE H5 TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE DURING THURSDAY. MUCH
COOLER CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE AS COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES
TO SHIFT ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPS WILL ONLY TOP OFF IN THE
50S...CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS BUT A GOOD 15 DEGREES OR SO LOWER
THAN TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

BIG PICTURE...

29/00Z GUIDANCE SUITE CONTINUES TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.
THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF ROOM FOR IMPROVEMENT REGARDING THE
DETAILS. THE WEATHER THIS WEEK WILL BE DRIVEN BY A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED...ANOMALOUS PATTERN. THE CORE OF AN OFFSHORE LOW
PRESSURE WAS ABOUT 1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL. THE
CORE OF THE 500 MB LOW WAS NEARLY 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW
NORMAL.

THIS MEANS WE NEED TO KEEP THE GUIDANCE DETAILS IN PERSPECTIVE...
AS MODELS TYPICALLY DO NOT HANDLE EXTREME EVENTS PERFECTLY. IT IS
ENCOURAGING TO SEE THE GUIDANCE CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION THOUGH.
WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR A CONSENSUS MEAN SOLUTION TO SMOOTH OVER
SOME OF THE MINOR DIFFERENCES. WE EXPECT BETTER AGREEMENT OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS NOW THAT THE ENERGY WHICH WILL PRODUCE THIS COASTAL
STORM WILL BE OVER LAND AND BETTER SAMPLED.

THE 29/00 ECMWF STILL REMAINS SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST AND QUICKER
WITH IT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE. THAT SAID...ITS TRACK IS STILL EAST
OF 70W LONGITUDE AS IT PASSES BY OUR REGION. THIS SHOULD MEAN THE
GREATEST EFFECTS SHOULD BE FELT TOWARD THE COASTS.

THE DAILIES...

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...COOLING ALOFT WITH WEAK RIDGING NEAR
THE SURFACE. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE WEATHER DRY INTO AT LEAST THE
FIRST PART OF FRIDAY. AS A SHORTWAVE DIVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES
TROUGH AND TURNS THE UPPER FLOW OVER US MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.
MEANWHILE WEAK RIDGING BUILDS TO OUR NORTH AND TURNS OUR WIND
EAST OR NORTHEAST.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...THIS WILL BE THE MAIN PERIOD OF RISK FOR
PRECIPITATION DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. STRONG MID
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE ATLANTIC
COAST. UPPER JET FROM CENTRAL CANADA FEEDS AROUND THIS UPPER
TROUGH WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION MOVING OVER THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY. THIS SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF A COASTAL LOW
DEVELOPING. STILL SOME QUESTIONS WITH THE TRACK...WHICH WILL BE A
KEY INGREDIENT TO DETERMINING PRECIPITATION TYPE.

CONFIDENT THAT THERE WILL BE UNSETTLED WEATHER THIS WEEKEND...WITH
GREATEST RISK ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN AND DIMINISHING POPS
FARTHER NORTHWEST. WILL REFLECT THIS WITH LIKELY POPS SOUTHEAST
GRADING TO CHANCE POPS NORTHWEST. LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
PRECIPITATION TYPE. MUCH OF THIS TIME SHOULD BE RAIN. WITH TEMPERATURES
FORECAST TO FALL TO FREEZING OR BELOW SATURDAY NIGHT...THE RESULT
WILL BE SOME SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.
LINGERING CLOUDS BENEATH THE COLD POOL ALOFT...ESPECIALLY ON
MONDAY. OTHERWISE FAIR AND DRY WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL
BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR. LOW-END VFR/MVFR WITH LINE OF -RA EXPECTED TO SWEEP
THE TERMINALS INTO THIS EVENING AHEAD OF WHICH SW-WINDS PREVAIL
GUSTING AROUND 20-25 KTS ALONG THE S/SE SHORELINE. AN ISOLATED
TSRA IS POSSIBLE OVER SE-TERMINALS...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
PREVAIL IN TAF.

TONIGHT...WINDS BACK W BEHIND THE LINE...DIMINISHING. MAINLY VFR.
LOW-END VFR/MVFR CIGS WITH -RA LINGER OVER S AND E TERMINALS INTO
MIDNIGHT...IMPROVING AFTER AS ACTIVITY PUSHES OFFSHORE.

THURSDAY...VFR. LIGHT W-WINDS. SCT CIGS 4-5 KFT ACROSS INTERIOR
TERMINALS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. LIGHT/VRB WINDS. SKC. SHALLOW PATCHY GROUND
FOG POSSIBLE AT PRONE TERMINALS.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND
PRECIPITATION TYPE. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION
OCCURRENCE. CIGS/VSBYS LOWERING TO IFR COASTAL PLAIN AND MVFR
NORTHWEST. COASTAL STORM PASSES BY LATER SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ESPECIALLY KMHT-KORH-KBAF-KBDL.
PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF SUNDAY. NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS WITH GUSTS
ALONG THE COAST 25-35 KNOTS SATURDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY WITH
GUSTS 25 TO 30 KNOTS INLAND AND 30 TO 40 KNOTS ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE ON THE
EASTERN OUTER WATERS AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS AS LOW
LEVEL SW JET MOVES ACROSS TODAY. EXPECT GUSTS UP TO AROUND 25 KT.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO AROUND 6 FT ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. AS THE FRONT PASSES A FEW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE WHICH MAY REDUCE VSBYS. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT
BE RULED OUT.

WINDS SHIFT TO W AND TEND TO DIMINISH TONIGHT...BUT WILL STILL
SEE SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 KT EARLY ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS. SEAS WILL
LINGER AOA 5 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS...BUT SHOULD SLOWLY SUBSIDE.

THURSDAY...LIGHT NW WINDS IN PLACE. LEFTOVER 5 FT SEAS ON THE
OUTER WATERS EARLY SHOULD SUBSIDE.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF
THE WATERS. NORTHWEST WINDS THURSDAY BECOME NORTHEAST FRIDAY BUT
REMAIN BELOW 20 KNOTS. SEAS GENERALLY LESS THAN 5 FEET.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...COASTAL LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE
CAROLINAS AND MOVES UP THE COAST. MODERATE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
EXACT TRACK AND TIMING...WITH THE GENERAL CONSENSUS SOLUTION
STAYING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. AT LEAST
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS SATURDAY 25 TO 35 KNOTS SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST 30 TO
40 KNOTS SUNDAY. A GALE WATCH/GALE WARNING MAY EVENTUALLY BE
NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>234-250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235-
     237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BELK/EVT
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/SIPPRELL
MARINE...BELK/EVT




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