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000
FXUS61 KBOX 222015
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
415 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH MILD DAYS AND
COOL NIGHTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COASTAL STORM MAY GRAZE SE NEW
ENGLAND WITH A FEW SHOWERS THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FRIDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A WARMING TREND AND SUMMER LIKE
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRES WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST BRINGING MOCLEAR
SKIES AND A DRY AIRMASS. GUSTY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
TONIGHT BUT THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH GRADIENT TO LIMIT
RADIATIONAL COOLING SO TEMPS WILL LIKELY STAY ABOVE FROST
THRESHOLDS. STILL A CHILLY NIGHT WITH MINS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S IN
THE INTERIOR...WITH 40S ELSEWHERE. ISOLD FROST POSSIBLE IN THE NW
MA AND SW NH BUT NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT FROST HEADLINES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...
HIGH PRES CRESTS ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL BRING MOSUNNY SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS. SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL LIMIT MIXING HEIGHT
BELOW 850 MB. 925 MB TEMPS 10-11C WHICH SUPPORTS TEMPS 65-70
DEGREES...COOLER HIGHER TERRAIN WHICH IS LINE WITH 2M TEMPS. SOME
OF THE HIRES GUIDANCE IS HINTING A SEABREEZE DEVELOPING ALONG THE
COAST IN THE AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRES BUILDS TO THE NORTH WITH A CONTINUATION OF CLEAR SKIES
AND A LIGHT NE WIND DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. WE USED A BLEND OF THE
GUIDANCE WHICH YIELDS MINS MOSTLY IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* THE 1ST WEEK OF AUTUMN WILL FEATURE MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS
  FOLLOWED BY POTENTIAL NEAR RECORD WARMTH NEXT WEEKEND

* HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY...

LARGE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL RESULT
IN DRY/PLEASANT WEATHER FOR LATE SEPTEMBER.  GIVEN THE POSITIONING
OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM...EXPECT EASTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE
SO COOLEST TEMPS WILL BE FOUND NO THE EASTERN MA COAST.  HIGHS
SHOULD RANGE FROM MAINLY THE 60S...TO PERHAPS NEAR 70 IN THE LOWER
CT RIVER VALLEY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EMERGING OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.  HOWEVER...WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND A
SURFACE HIGH NEARBY ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR ALLOWING THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO TRACK UP THE COAST.  IN ADDITION...WEAK BAROCLINICITY WILL
ALSO LIMIT NORTHWEST AXIS OF QPF SHIELD.  NONETHELESS...THE GFS AND
ITS ENSEMBLES INDICATE AT LEAST A RISK FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHOWERS
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES.  WHETHER OR NOT THIS COMES TO
FRUITION...CERTAINLY DO NOT EXPECT ANY APPRECIABLE RAINFALL.

AS FOR HIGH TEMPS ON THURSDAY...ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN HIGHS IN
THE 60S TO NEAR 70.  AGAIN...WARMEST READINGS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS
THE DISTANT INTERIOR.


FRI/SAT AND SUN...

SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS WESTWARD FROM OVER NEW ENGLAND TO ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS YIELDS A WARMER WNW LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW INTO NEW
ENGLAND. THIS SHOULD YIELD TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S FRI AND THEN
PUSHING 80 OR SO NEXT WEEKEND. THE RECORDS FOR THE DAY INCLUDE

     9/27...

BOS...86...1998
BDL...88...1998
PVD...86...1998
ORH...85...1933

GIVEN THE TIME RANGE HERE ALONG WITH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WILL
FOLLOW A MODEL BLEND. HUMIDITY SHOULD BE IN THE COMFORTABLE RANGE
GIVEN WNW LOW LEVEL LAND TRAJECTORY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. N/NW WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON...
DIMINISHING TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS TUE AND TUE NIGHT WITH LOW PROB
OF A SEABREEZE TUE AFTERNOON.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LOW PROB OF A SEABREEZE TUE
AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR EACH DAY. EXCEPTION WILL BE A LOW RISK OF
MVFR IN SHOWERS SOUTH COAST INCLUDING THE ISLANDS FROM WED NIGHT
THRU THU NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...GUSTY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH GUSTS
DROPPING BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...SOUTHERLY
SWELL WILL KEEP SEAS ABOVE 5 FT OVER THE OPEN WATERS THROUGH THE
NIGHT SO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE HERE.

TUE AND TUE NIGHT...LIGHT WINDS BELOW 15 KT WITH SEAS SUBSIDING
BELOW 5 FT DURING TUE OVER THE OPEN WATERS. LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS
TUE NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

LIGHT WINDS THRU THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRES REMAINS OVER OR NEAR THE
REGION. DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY TOO. POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WILL BE
RAIN SHOWERS WED NIGHT THRU THU NIGHT AS MOISTURE ADVECTS UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ020>024.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     236-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...KJC/FRANK
MARINE...KJC/FRANK



000
FXUS61 KBOX 222015
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
415 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH MILD DAYS AND
COOL NIGHTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COASTAL STORM MAY GRAZE SE NEW
ENGLAND WITH A FEW SHOWERS THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FRIDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A WARMING TREND AND SUMMER LIKE
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRES WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST BRINGING MOCLEAR
SKIES AND A DRY AIRMASS. GUSTY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
TONIGHT BUT THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH GRADIENT TO LIMIT
RADIATIONAL COOLING SO TEMPS WILL LIKELY STAY ABOVE FROST
THRESHOLDS. STILL A CHILLY NIGHT WITH MINS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S IN
THE INTERIOR...WITH 40S ELSEWHERE. ISOLD FROST POSSIBLE IN THE NW
MA AND SW NH BUT NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT FROST HEADLINES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...
HIGH PRES CRESTS ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL BRING MOSUNNY SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS. SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL LIMIT MIXING HEIGHT
BELOW 850 MB. 925 MB TEMPS 10-11C WHICH SUPPORTS TEMPS 65-70
DEGREES...COOLER HIGHER TERRAIN WHICH IS LINE WITH 2M TEMPS. SOME
OF THE HIRES GUIDANCE IS HINTING A SEABREEZE DEVELOPING ALONG THE
COAST IN THE AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRES BUILDS TO THE NORTH WITH A CONTINUATION OF CLEAR SKIES
AND A LIGHT NE WIND DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. WE USED A BLEND OF THE
GUIDANCE WHICH YIELDS MINS MOSTLY IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* THE 1ST WEEK OF AUTUMN WILL FEATURE MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS
  FOLLOWED BY POTENTIAL NEAR RECORD WARMTH NEXT WEEKEND

* HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY...

LARGE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL RESULT
IN DRY/PLEASANT WEATHER FOR LATE SEPTEMBER.  GIVEN THE POSITIONING
OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM...EXPECT EASTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE
SO COOLEST TEMPS WILL BE FOUND NO THE EASTERN MA COAST.  HIGHS
SHOULD RANGE FROM MAINLY THE 60S...TO PERHAPS NEAR 70 IN THE LOWER
CT RIVER VALLEY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EMERGING OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.  HOWEVER...WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND A
SURFACE HIGH NEARBY ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR ALLOWING THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO TRACK UP THE COAST.  IN ADDITION...WEAK BAROCLINICITY WILL
ALSO LIMIT NORTHWEST AXIS OF QPF SHIELD.  NONETHELESS...THE GFS AND
ITS ENSEMBLES INDICATE AT LEAST A RISK FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHOWERS
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES.  WHETHER OR NOT THIS COMES TO
FRUITION...CERTAINLY DO NOT EXPECT ANY APPRECIABLE RAINFALL.

AS FOR HIGH TEMPS ON THURSDAY...ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN HIGHS IN
THE 60S TO NEAR 70.  AGAIN...WARMEST READINGS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS
THE DISTANT INTERIOR.


FRI/SAT AND SUN...

SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS WESTWARD FROM OVER NEW ENGLAND TO ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS YIELDS A WARMER WNW LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW INTO NEW
ENGLAND. THIS SHOULD YIELD TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S FRI AND THEN
PUSHING 80 OR SO NEXT WEEKEND. THE RECORDS FOR THE DAY INCLUDE

     9/27...

BOS...86...1998
BDL...88...1998
PVD...86...1998
ORH...85...1933

GIVEN THE TIME RANGE HERE ALONG WITH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WILL
FOLLOW A MODEL BLEND. HUMIDITY SHOULD BE IN THE COMFORTABLE RANGE
GIVEN WNW LOW LEVEL LAND TRAJECTORY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. N/NW WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON...
DIMINISHING TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS TUE AND TUE NIGHT WITH LOW PROB
OF A SEABREEZE TUE AFTERNOON.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LOW PROB OF A SEABREEZE TUE
AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR EACH DAY. EXCEPTION WILL BE A LOW RISK OF
MVFR IN SHOWERS SOUTH COAST INCLUDING THE ISLANDS FROM WED NIGHT
THRU THU NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...GUSTY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH GUSTS
DROPPING BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...SOUTHERLY
SWELL WILL KEEP SEAS ABOVE 5 FT OVER THE OPEN WATERS THROUGH THE
NIGHT SO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE HERE.

TUE AND TUE NIGHT...LIGHT WINDS BELOW 15 KT WITH SEAS SUBSIDING
BELOW 5 FT DURING TUE OVER THE OPEN WATERS. LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS
TUE NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

LIGHT WINDS THRU THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRES REMAINS OVER OR NEAR THE
REGION. DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY TOO. POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WILL BE
RAIN SHOWERS WED NIGHT THRU THU NIGHT AS MOISTURE ADVECTS UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ020>024.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     236-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...KJC/FRANK
MARINE...KJC/FRANK



000
FXUS61 KBOX 222015
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
415 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH MILD DAYS AND
COOL NIGHTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COASTAL STORM MAY GRAZE SE NEW
ENGLAND WITH A FEW SHOWERS THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FRIDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A WARMING TREND AND SUMMER LIKE
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRES WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST BRINGING MOCLEAR
SKIES AND A DRY AIRMASS. GUSTY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
TONIGHT BUT THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH GRADIENT TO LIMIT
RADIATIONAL COOLING SO TEMPS WILL LIKELY STAY ABOVE FROST
THRESHOLDS. STILL A CHILLY NIGHT WITH MINS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S IN
THE INTERIOR...WITH 40S ELSEWHERE. ISOLD FROST POSSIBLE IN THE NW
MA AND SW NH BUT NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT FROST HEADLINES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...
HIGH PRES CRESTS ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL BRING MOSUNNY SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS. SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL LIMIT MIXING HEIGHT
BELOW 850 MB. 925 MB TEMPS 10-11C WHICH SUPPORTS TEMPS 65-70
DEGREES...COOLER HIGHER TERRAIN WHICH IS LINE WITH 2M TEMPS. SOME
OF THE HIRES GUIDANCE IS HINTING A SEABREEZE DEVELOPING ALONG THE
COAST IN THE AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRES BUILDS TO THE NORTH WITH A CONTINUATION OF CLEAR SKIES
AND A LIGHT NE WIND DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. WE USED A BLEND OF THE
GUIDANCE WHICH YIELDS MINS MOSTLY IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* THE 1ST WEEK OF AUTUMN WILL FEATURE MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS
  FOLLOWED BY POTENTIAL NEAR RECORD WARMTH NEXT WEEKEND

* HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY...

LARGE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL RESULT
IN DRY/PLEASANT WEATHER FOR LATE SEPTEMBER.  GIVEN THE POSITIONING
OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM...EXPECT EASTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE
SO COOLEST TEMPS WILL BE FOUND NO THE EASTERN MA COAST.  HIGHS
SHOULD RANGE FROM MAINLY THE 60S...TO PERHAPS NEAR 70 IN THE LOWER
CT RIVER VALLEY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EMERGING OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.  HOWEVER...WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND A
SURFACE HIGH NEARBY ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR ALLOWING THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO TRACK UP THE COAST.  IN ADDITION...WEAK BAROCLINICITY WILL
ALSO LIMIT NORTHWEST AXIS OF QPF SHIELD.  NONETHELESS...THE GFS AND
ITS ENSEMBLES INDICATE AT LEAST A RISK FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHOWERS
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES.  WHETHER OR NOT THIS COMES TO
FRUITION...CERTAINLY DO NOT EXPECT ANY APPRECIABLE RAINFALL.

AS FOR HIGH TEMPS ON THURSDAY...ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN HIGHS IN
THE 60S TO NEAR 70.  AGAIN...WARMEST READINGS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS
THE DISTANT INTERIOR.


FRI/SAT AND SUN...

SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS WESTWARD FROM OVER NEW ENGLAND TO ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS YIELDS A WARMER WNW LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW INTO NEW
ENGLAND. THIS SHOULD YIELD TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S FRI AND THEN
PUSHING 80 OR SO NEXT WEEKEND. THE RECORDS FOR THE DAY INCLUDE

     9/27...

BOS...86...1998
BDL...88...1998
PVD...86...1998
ORH...85...1933

GIVEN THE TIME RANGE HERE ALONG WITH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WILL
FOLLOW A MODEL BLEND. HUMIDITY SHOULD BE IN THE COMFORTABLE RANGE
GIVEN WNW LOW LEVEL LAND TRAJECTORY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. N/NW WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON...
DIMINISHING TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS TUE AND TUE NIGHT WITH LOW PROB
OF A SEABREEZE TUE AFTERNOON.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LOW PROB OF A SEABREEZE TUE
AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR EACH DAY. EXCEPTION WILL BE A LOW RISK OF
MVFR IN SHOWERS SOUTH COAST INCLUDING THE ISLANDS FROM WED NIGHT
THRU THU NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...GUSTY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH GUSTS
DROPPING BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...SOUTHERLY
SWELL WILL KEEP SEAS ABOVE 5 FT OVER THE OPEN WATERS THROUGH THE
NIGHT SO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE HERE.

TUE AND TUE NIGHT...LIGHT WINDS BELOW 15 KT WITH SEAS SUBSIDING
BELOW 5 FT DURING TUE OVER THE OPEN WATERS. LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS
TUE NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

LIGHT WINDS THRU THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRES REMAINS OVER OR NEAR THE
REGION. DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY TOO. POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WILL BE
RAIN SHOWERS WED NIGHT THRU THU NIGHT AS MOISTURE ADVECTS UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ020>024.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     236-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...KJC/FRANK
MARINE...KJC/FRANK



000
FXUS61 KBOX 222015
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
415 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH MILD DAYS AND
COOL NIGHTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COASTAL STORM MAY GRAZE SE NEW
ENGLAND WITH A FEW SHOWERS THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FRIDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A WARMING TREND AND SUMMER LIKE
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRES WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST BRINGING MOCLEAR
SKIES AND A DRY AIRMASS. GUSTY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
TONIGHT BUT THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH GRADIENT TO LIMIT
RADIATIONAL COOLING SO TEMPS WILL LIKELY STAY ABOVE FROST
THRESHOLDS. STILL A CHILLY NIGHT WITH MINS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S IN
THE INTERIOR...WITH 40S ELSEWHERE. ISOLD FROST POSSIBLE IN THE NW
MA AND SW NH BUT NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT FROST HEADLINES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...
HIGH PRES CRESTS ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL BRING MOSUNNY SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS. SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL LIMIT MIXING HEIGHT
BELOW 850 MB. 925 MB TEMPS 10-11C WHICH SUPPORTS TEMPS 65-70
DEGREES...COOLER HIGHER TERRAIN WHICH IS LINE WITH 2M TEMPS. SOME
OF THE HIRES GUIDANCE IS HINTING A SEABREEZE DEVELOPING ALONG THE
COAST IN THE AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRES BUILDS TO THE NORTH WITH A CONTINUATION OF CLEAR SKIES
AND A LIGHT NE WIND DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. WE USED A BLEND OF THE
GUIDANCE WHICH YIELDS MINS MOSTLY IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* THE 1ST WEEK OF AUTUMN WILL FEATURE MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS
  FOLLOWED BY POTENTIAL NEAR RECORD WARMTH NEXT WEEKEND

* HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY...

LARGE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL RESULT
IN DRY/PLEASANT WEATHER FOR LATE SEPTEMBER.  GIVEN THE POSITIONING
OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM...EXPECT EASTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE
SO COOLEST TEMPS WILL BE FOUND NO THE EASTERN MA COAST.  HIGHS
SHOULD RANGE FROM MAINLY THE 60S...TO PERHAPS NEAR 70 IN THE LOWER
CT RIVER VALLEY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EMERGING OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.  HOWEVER...WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND A
SURFACE HIGH NEARBY ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR ALLOWING THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO TRACK UP THE COAST.  IN ADDITION...WEAK BAROCLINICITY WILL
ALSO LIMIT NORTHWEST AXIS OF QPF SHIELD.  NONETHELESS...THE GFS AND
ITS ENSEMBLES INDICATE AT LEAST A RISK FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHOWERS
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES.  WHETHER OR NOT THIS COMES TO
FRUITION...CERTAINLY DO NOT EXPECT ANY APPRECIABLE RAINFALL.

AS FOR HIGH TEMPS ON THURSDAY...ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN HIGHS IN
THE 60S TO NEAR 70.  AGAIN...WARMEST READINGS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS
THE DISTANT INTERIOR.


FRI/SAT AND SUN...

SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS WESTWARD FROM OVER NEW ENGLAND TO ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS YIELDS A WARMER WNW LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW INTO NEW
ENGLAND. THIS SHOULD YIELD TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S FRI AND THEN
PUSHING 80 OR SO NEXT WEEKEND. THE RECORDS FOR THE DAY INCLUDE

     9/27...

BOS...86...1998
BDL...88...1998
PVD...86...1998
ORH...85...1933

GIVEN THE TIME RANGE HERE ALONG WITH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WILL
FOLLOW A MODEL BLEND. HUMIDITY SHOULD BE IN THE COMFORTABLE RANGE
GIVEN WNW LOW LEVEL LAND TRAJECTORY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. N/NW WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON...
DIMINISHING TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS TUE AND TUE NIGHT WITH LOW PROB
OF A SEABREEZE TUE AFTERNOON.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LOW PROB OF A SEABREEZE TUE
AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR EACH DAY. EXCEPTION WILL BE A LOW RISK OF
MVFR IN SHOWERS SOUTH COAST INCLUDING THE ISLANDS FROM WED NIGHT
THRU THU NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...GUSTY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH GUSTS
DROPPING BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...SOUTHERLY
SWELL WILL KEEP SEAS ABOVE 5 FT OVER THE OPEN WATERS THROUGH THE
NIGHT SO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE HERE.

TUE AND TUE NIGHT...LIGHT WINDS BELOW 15 KT WITH SEAS SUBSIDING
BELOW 5 FT DURING TUE OVER THE OPEN WATERS. LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS
TUE NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

LIGHT WINDS THRU THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRES REMAINS OVER OR NEAR THE
REGION. DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY TOO. POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WILL BE
RAIN SHOWERS WED NIGHT THRU THU NIGHT AS MOISTURE ADVECTS UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ020>024.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     236-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...KJC/FRANK
MARINE...KJC/FRANK



000
FXUS61 KBOX 222015
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
415 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH MILD DAYS AND
COOL NIGHTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COASTAL STORM MAY GRAZE SE NEW
ENGLAND WITH A FEW SHOWERS THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FRIDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A WARMING TREND AND SUMMER LIKE
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRES WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST BRINGING MOCLEAR
SKIES AND A DRY AIRMASS. GUSTY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
TONIGHT BUT THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH GRADIENT TO LIMIT
RADIATIONAL COOLING SO TEMPS WILL LIKELY STAY ABOVE FROST
THRESHOLDS. STILL A CHILLY NIGHT WITH MINS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S IN
THE INTERIOR...WITH 40S ELSEWHERE. ISOLD FROST POSSIBLE IN THE NW
MA AND SW NH BUT NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT FROST HEADLINES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...
HIGH PRES CRESTS ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL BRING MOSUNNY SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS. SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL LIMIT MIXING HEIGHT
BELOW 850 MB. 925 MB TEMPS 10-11C WHICH SUPPORTS TEMPS 65-70
DEGREES...COOLER HIGHER TERRAIN WHICH IS LINE WITH 2M TEMPS. SOME
OF THE HIRES GUIDANCE IS HINTING A SEABREEZE DEVELOPING ALONG THE
COAST IN THE AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRES BUILDS TO THE NORTH WITH A CONTINUATION OF CLEAR SKIES
AND A LIGHT NE WIND DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. WE USED A BLEND OF THE
GUIDANCE WHICH YIELDS MINS MOSTLY IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* THE 1ST WEEK OF AUTUMN WILL FEATURE MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS
  FOLLOWED BY POTENTIAL NEAR RECORD WARMTH NEXT WEEKEND

* HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY...

LARGE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL RESULT
IN DRY/PLEASANT WEATHER FOR LATE SEPTEMBER.  GIVEN THE POSITIONING
OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM...EXPECT EASTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE
SO COOLEST TEMPS WILL BE FOUND NO THE EASTERN MA COAST.  HIGHS
SHOULD RANGE FROM MAINLY THE 60S...TO PERHAPS NEAR 70 IN THE LOWER
CT RIVER VALLEY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EMERGING OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.  HOWEVER...WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND A
SURFACE HIGH NEARBY ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR ALLOWING THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO TRACK UP THE COAST.  IN ADDITION...WEAK BAROCLINICITY WILL
ALSO LIMIT NORTHWEST AXIS OF QPF SHIELD.  NONETHELESS...THE GFS AND
ITS ENSEMBLES INDICATE AT LEAST A RISK FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHOWERS
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES.  WHETHER OR NOT THIS COMES TO
FRUITION...CERTAINLY DO NOT EXPECT ANY APPRECIABLE RAINFALL.

AS FOR HIGH TEMPS ON THURSDAY...ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN HIGHS IN
THE 60S TO NEAR 70.  AGAIN...WARMEST READINGS WILL BE FOUND ACROSGH CONFIDENCE. LOW PROB OF A SEABREEZE TUE
AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR EACH DAY. EXCEPTION WILL BE A LOW RISK OF
MVFR IN SHOWERS SOUTH COAST INCLUDING THE ISLANDS FROM WED NIGHT
THRU THU NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...GUSTY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH GUSTS
DROPPING BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...SOUTHERLY
SWELL WILL KEEP SEAS ABOVE 5 FT OVER THE OPEN WATERS THROUGH THE
NIGHT SO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE HERE.

TUE AND TUE NIGHT...LIGHT WINDS BELOW 15 KT WITH SEAS SUBSIDING
BELOW 5 FT DURING TUE OVER THE OPEN WATERS. LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS
TUE NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

LIGHT WINDS THRU THE PERIOD AS
THE DISTANT INTERIOR.


FRI/SAT AND SUN...

SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS WESTWARD FROM OVER NEW ENGLAND TO ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS YIELDS A WARMER WNW LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW INTO NEW
ENGLAND. THIS SHOULD YIELD TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S FRI AND THEN
PUSHING 80 OR SO NEXT WEEKEND. THE RECORDS FOR THE DAY INCLUDE

     9/27...

BOS...86...1998
BDL...88...1998
PVD...86...1998
ORH...85...1933

GIVEN THE TIME RANGE HERE ALONG WITH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WILL
FOLLOW A MODEL BLEND. HUMIDITY SHOULD BE IN THE COMFORTABLE RANGE
GIVEN WNW LOW LEVEL LAND TRAJECTORY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. N/NW WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON...
DIMINISHING TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS TUE AND TUE NIGHT WITH LOW PROB
OF A SEABREEZE TUE AFTERNOON.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIS HIGH PRES REMAINS OVER OR NEAR THE
REGION. DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY TOO. POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WILL BE
RAIN SHOWERS WED NIGHT THRU THU NIGHT AS MOISTURE ADVECTS UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ020>024.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     236-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...KJC/FRANK
MARINE...KJC/FRANK


  [top]

000
FXUS61 KALY 222008
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
408 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL FINALLY DECREASE AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING...AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE TOWARDS
THE REGION FROM THE MIDWEST.  AFTER A COOL START TOMORROW
MORNING...TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL ALONG WITH A MOSTLY
SUNNY SKY. THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WITH DRY CONDITIONS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 408 PM EDT...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS SITUATED
OVER THE NORTHEAST. OUR REGION HAS BEEN IN A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT...WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE UPSTREAM OFF THE REGION OVER
THE MIDWEST...AND SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA AND A
SURFACE COLD FRONT JUST EAST OF NEW ENGLAND.

THIS TROUGH WILL START TO LIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT...AND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TO FINALLY RELAX OVER THE AREA. ALTHOUGH WIND
GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING...THEY WILL
QUICKLY DIMINISH TONIGHT ALONG WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME MIXING AND
INCREASING SUBSIDENCE.

IN ADDITION...STRATOCU CLOUDS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AREAS WILL
DIMINISH AS WELL THANKS TO THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. SKIES WILL
BECOME CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR FOR TONIGHT. WITH THE DIMINISHING WIND
AND CLEARING SKY...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT.

MIN TEMPS WILL DROP TO THE MID 30S TO MID 40S ACROSS THE REGION.
SOME PATCHY FROST IS MENTIONED FOR AREAS WHERE LOWS WILL GET INTO
THE MID 30S WHERE THE GROWING SEASON IS STILL ONGOING. IF CLOUDS
WIND UP HANGING AROUND LONGER OR THE WIND KEEPS UP A LITTLE LONGER
THAN ANTICIPATED...THEN MIN TEMPS MAY NOT GET QUITE AS LOW AS
CURRENTLY FORECASTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY AND QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE FROM THE MIDWEST TOMORROW TOWARDS
THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY...AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FOR
THURSDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE DRY WEATHER...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
CLEAR...ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS.

WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND HEIGHTS BUILDING ACROSS THE
AREA...TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY BE WARMER EACH DAY. VALLEY MAX TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TOMORROW...NEAR 70 ON WEDNESDAY...AND LOW
70S FOR THURSDAY. HIGH TERRAIN AREAS WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE 60S
THROUGH THE WEEK. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CAN BE EXPECTED EACH
NIGHT AS WELL...AS COOL OVERNIGHT TEMPS ARE FORECASTED AS
WELL...WITH UPPER 30S TO MID 40S FOR BOTH TUES/WED NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS
RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT DOMINATE OUR WEATHER. AT THIS
TIME...HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND OF AROUND 80 DEGREES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY UP INTO THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 18Z TUESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
SOME MVFR CIGS AT TIMES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AT KPSF. SKIES
WILL BECOME SKC THIS EVENING AND REMAIN SO THROUGH THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD. AT THIS POINT DO NOT EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP AT THE TAF
SITES AS THERE SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH GRADIENT TO KEEP THINGS MIXED
OVERNIGHT.

WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING WITH WINDS FROM
THE W-NW AT 10-16 KTS GUSTY TO 20-30 KTS AT TIMES...WINDS WILL
BECOME VARIABLE AROUND 3 KTS AFT 02Z AND THEN INCREASE 6-7 KTS
AND BE VARIABLE IN TERMS OF DIRECTION AFTER 15Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

RH VALUES WILL RETURN TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH SOME
FOG/DEW/FROST FORMATION POSSIBLE. ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE GUSTY THIS
EVENING...THEY WILL DIMINISH TO CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE
CONDITIONS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

RH VALUES WILL DROP TO 40 TO 70 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH
WEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH. THE LOWEST RH VALUES WILL BE IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT.  RH VALUES WILL AGAIN RETURN TO NEAR 100
PERCENT TOMORROW NIGHT WITH DEW AND FOG FORMATION AND CALM WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEATHER THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. AS A RESULT...NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. RIVERS AND STREAMS...MANY OF WHICH HAVE
BEEN RUNNING ON THE LOW SIDE...WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN STEADY
THROUGH THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS








000
FXUS61 KALY 222008
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
408 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL FINALLY DECREASE AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING...AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE TOWARDS
THE REGION FROM THE MIDWEST.  AFTER A COOL START TOMORROW
MORNING...TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL ALONG WITH A MOSTLY
SUNNY SKY. THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WITH DRY CONDITIONS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 408 PM EDT...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS SITUATED
OVER THE NORTHEAST. OUR REGION HAS BEEN IN A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT...WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE UPSTREAM OFF THE REGION OVER
THE MIDWEST...AND SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA AND A
SURFACE COLD FRONT JUST EAST OF NEW ENGLAND.

THIS TROUGH WILL START TO LIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT...AND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TO FINALLY RELAX OVER THE AREA. ALTHOUGH WIND
GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING...THEY WILL
QUICKLY DIMINISH TONIGHT ALONG WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME MIXING AND
INCREASING SUBSIDENCE.

IN ADDITION...STRATOCU CLOUDS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AREAS WILL
DIMINISH AS WELL THANKS TO THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. SKIES WILL
BECOME CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR FOR TONIGHT. WITH THE DIMINISHING WIND
AND CLEARING SKY...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT.

MIN TEMPS WILL DROP TO THE MID 30S TO MID 40S ACROSS THE REGION.
SOME PATCHY FROST IS MENTIONED FOR AREAS WHERE LOWS WILL GET INTO
THE MID 30S WHERE THE GROWING SEASON IS STILL ONGOING. IF CLOUDS
WIND UP HANGING AROUND LONGER OR THE WIND KEEPS UP A LITTLE LONGER
THAN ANTICIPATED...THEN MIN TEMPS MAY NOT GET QUITE AS LOW AS
CURRENTLY FORECASTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY AND QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE FROM THE MIDWEST TOMORROW TOWARDS
THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY...AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FOR
THURSDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE DRY WEATHER...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
CLEAR...ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS.

WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND HEIGHTS BUILDING ACROSS THE
AREA...TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY BE WARMER EACH DAY. VALLEY MAX TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TOMORROW...NEAR 70 ON WEDNESDAY...AND LOW
70S FOR THURSDAY. HIGH TERRAIN AREAS WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE 60S
THROUGH THE WEEK. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CAN BE EXPECTED EACH
NIGHT AS WELL...AS COOL OVERNIGHT TEMPS ARE FORECASTED AS
WELL...WITH UPPER 30S TO MID 40S FOR BOTH TUES/WED NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS
RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT DOMINATE OUR WEATHER. AT THIS
TIME...HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND OF AROUND 80 DEGREES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY UP INTO THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 18Z TUESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
SOME MVFR CIGS AT TIMES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AT KPSF. SKIES
WILL BECOME SKC THIS EVENING AND REMAIN SO THROUGH THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD. AT THIS POINT DO NOT EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP AT THE TAF
SITES AS THERE SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH GRADIENT TO KEEP THINGS MIXED
OVERNIGHT.

WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING WITH WINDS FROM
THE W-NW AT 10-16 KTS GUSTY TO 20-30 KTS AT TIMES...WINDS WILL
BECOME VARIABLE AROUND 3 KTS AFT 02Z AND THEN INCREASE 6-7 KTS
AND BE VARIABLE IN TERMS OF DIRECTION AFTER 15Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

RH VALUES WILL RETURN TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH SOME
FOG/DEW/FROST FORMATION POSSIBLE. ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE GUSTY THIS
EVENING...THEY WILL DIMINISH TO CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE
CONDITIONS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

RH VALUES WILL DROP TO 40 TO 70 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH
WEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH. THE LOWEST RH VALUES WILL BE IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT.  RH VALUES WILL AGAIN RETURN TO NEAR 100
PERCENT TOMORROW NIGHT WITH DEW AND FOG FORMATION AND CALM WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEATHER THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. AS A RESULT...NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. RIVERS AND STREAMS...MANY OF WHICH HAVE
BEEN RUNNING ON THE LOW SIDE...WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN STEADY
THROUGH THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS






  [top]

000
FXUS61 KOKX 221953
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
353 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT...REMAINING
IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH THE MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION...BUT AS LOW
PRESSURE OVER SE CANADA CONTINUES TO MOVE FARTHER AWAY...THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER HERE WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS TO SUBSIDE. CLEAR
SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH BELOW-NORMAL LOWS. A FEW SPOTS ACROSS THE
NORTHERNMOST ZONES COULD DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THIS EVENING AT ATLANTIC OCEAN
FACING BEACHES MAINLY DUE TO A SWELL FROM AN OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE SOMEWHAT CYCLONIC...IT APPEARS THAT
LOWER-MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING FOR ANY DIURNAL CU BUILDUP.
IF ANYTHING...SOME CIRRUS COULD MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH. IN ANY
CASE...EXPECTING MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS.

FOR HIGHS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...SUBSIDENCE WILL PROBABLY LIMIT MIXING
TO AROUND 925 MB...WHERE MODELS FORECAST THE TEMP TO BE ABOUT 11C.
CONSIDERING MAINLY SUNNY SKIES BUT MINIMAL HELP FROM
DOWNSLOPING...WENT WITH MAV MOS FOR MOST AREAS...WHICH WAS SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN NAM MOS. HIGHS AVERAGING AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
OVERNIGHT LOWS A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL TOO...BUT MAINLY AWAY FROM THE
CITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEDNESDAY AN UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
INTERACTIONS OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES...ONE
MOVING INTO THE RIDGE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ANOTHER ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST TREND HAS
BEEN FOR THE RIDGE TO WEAKEN AND ALLOW AN INVERTED TROUGH TO DEEPEN
AND MOVE FARTHER NORTH ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. FOR NOW WILL STILL HAVE A DRY FORECAST ACROSS THE LAND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AND BRING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO THE
OCEAN FORECAST WATERS THURSDAY. IF TRENDS CONTINUE POSSIBLE THAT
SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION WOULD OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN NEW JERSEY INTO THE NYC METRO AND ACROSS LONG ISLAND.

ONCE THE SHORTWAVES PASS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN AND DRY
WEATHER RETURNS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A WARMING TREND
BEGINS WEDNESDAY AS THE INITIALLY COOL AIR MASS IN PLACE BEGINS TO
MODIFY. BY THE WEEKEND TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GUSTY W-NW WINDS 15-20 KT WITH 20-25 KT GUSTS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. WINDS VEER TO MORE OF A NW FLOW BY 00Z. GUSTS WILL
END...AND SUSTAINED WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 10-15 KT. WINDS CONTINUE
TO VEER TO THE N AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AT 5-7 KT.

SEA BREEZES POSSIBLE AT COASTAL TERMINALS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

GENERALLY SCT-BKN CU AT 3500-4500 FT THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND
THEN SKIES CLEAR OUT TONIGHT.

     ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WINDS JUST TO THE LEFT
OF 310 MAG...VEERING TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG BY 00Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WINDS JUST OVER 310
MAG...VEERING TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG BY 00Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WINDS JUST OVER 310
MAG...VEERING TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG BY 00Z.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR. LIGHT WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NE.
.WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. E WINDS 10-15 KT.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR CIGS AROUND 300 FT POSSIBLE. E WINDS 10-15
KT.
.THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN TERMINALS...WITH MVFR CONDS ALSO POSSIBLE. E-SE FLOW
THURSDAY...TURNING TO THE NE FRIDAY.
.SATURDAY...VFR. LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT...HOWEVER GUSTS UP TO 25 KT ARE STILL
EXPECTED OVER THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS. SEAS HERE WILL ALSO REMAIN
UP TO 5 FT OR HIGHER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SO WILL LEAVE SCA UP
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT FOR THESE ZONES.

FOR THE OCEAN WATERS WEST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET...THERE COULD BE A
FEW GUSTS TO 25 KT AFTER THE CURRENT SCA EXPIRES AT 00Z. THERE COULD
ALSO BE SOME AREAS IN THIS ZONE WHERE SEAS ARE UP TO 5 FT. THINKING
IS THAT THESE POTENTIAL SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE BRIEF ENOUGH AND
ISOLATED ENOUGH TO NOT EXTEND THE SCA FURTHER IN TIME.

FOR THE REST OF THE WATERS....OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 25 KT ARE
POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING...AND AGAIN IT LOOKS AS IF A SCA WOULD
NOT BE WARRANTED IN THIS CASE.

FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHTER
SIDE...AND LONG PERIOD OCEAN SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE.
THEREFORE EXPECTING SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE WATERS WEDNESDAY WILL KEEP WIND
AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH THE DAY. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH MOVING UP THE COAST WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. TRENDS HAVE BEEN TO BRING A DEEPER TROUGH FARTHER TO
THE NORTH. THIS WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH
TO THE NORTH AND THE LOW TO THE SOUTH. AN EASTERLY FLOW WILL
STRENGTHEN AND SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS MAY BUILD TO 5 TO 6 FT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN INTO THURSDAY. SOME GUSTS ON THE OCEAN
WATERS AND EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND AND PECONIC BAY MAY REACH SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS AS WELL WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
AND WIND AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...JC/MET
HYDROLOGY...JC/MET






000
FXUS61 KOKX 221750
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
150 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT...REMAINING
IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS WITH THIS UPDATE...MAINLY WITH CLOUD COVER.
THE CLOUD BUILDUP WE HAVE SEEN IS FROM A CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AS A
TROUGH AXIS/SHORTWAVE ALOFT APPROACHES AND MOVES INTO THE REGION.
LEFT HIGH TEMP FORECAST UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS UPDATE. HIGHS
AT OR A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL.

COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LEND TO GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...UP TO
AROUND 30 MPH AT TIMES.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY AT ATLANTIC OCEAN
FACING BEACHES MAINLY DUE TO A SWELL FROM AN OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...LOW TEMPS WILL
BE ABLE TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S FOR INTERIOR LOCATIONS AND
RANGE TO THE LOWER 50S NEAR THE NYC METRO...QUITE BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

EVEN WITH THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA ON
TUESDAY...LITTLE MOISTURE IS IN PLACE TO PROVIDE FOR MANY CLOUDS.
EXPECTING A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND LIGHT NW-N FLOW.

MAV/MET/GMOS BLEND AGAIN WORKED WELL FOR TEMPS. HIGHS ON TUESDAY
WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...EVENTUALLY LIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. THIS HIGH WILL PROVIDE THE REGION WITH FAIR AND DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS STARTED TO HINT AT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG
ISLAND THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW...THINKING THE HIGH
WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
LOW SOUTH OF THE REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF BACK OVER THE REGION FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK...WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH
THURSDAY...THEN RISE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GUSTY W-NW WINDS 15-20 KT WITH 20-30 KT GUSTS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. WINDS VEER TO MORE OF A NW FLOW BY 00Z. GUSTS WILL
END...AND SUSTAINED WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 10-15 KT. WINDS CONTINUE
TO VEER TO THE N AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AT 5-7 KT.

SEA BREEZES POSSIBLE AT COASTAL TERMINALS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

GENERALLY SCT-BKN CU AT 3500-4500 FT THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND
THEN SKIES CLEAR OUT TONIGHT.

     ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WINDS JUST TO THE
LEFT OF 310 MAG THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE VEERING TO THE RIGHT
OF 310 MAG BY 00Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WINDS JUST OVER 310
MAG...VEERING TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG BY 00Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WINDS JUST OVER 310
MAG...VEERING TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG BY 00Z.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: FU FROM A BRUSH FIRE NEAR KTEB MAY
OCCASIONALLY BE OBSERVED AT THE TERMINAL. OTHERWISE...NW WINDS
WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY AFTERNOON...VFR. SEA BREEZES LIKELY AT COASTAL TERMINALS.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR. LIGHT WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NE.
.WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. E WINDS 10-15 KT.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR CIGS AROUND 300 FT POSSIBLE. E WINDS 10-15
KT.
.THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN TERMINALS...WITH MVFR CONDS ALSO POSSIBLE. E-SE FLOW
THURSDAY...TURNING TO THE NE FRIDAY.
.SATURDAY...VFR. LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
OCEAN SEAS EXPECTED TO RUN 6-9 FT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT THIS
AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON THE
OTHER WATERS BUT GUST FREQUENCY AND ITS COVERAGE ARE NOT
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO GO WITH A SCA IN ANY OF THESE OTHER ZONES.

SEAS DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH WINDS AND WAVES FALLING BELOW
SCA CRITERIA BY TUESDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE
POSSIBILITY OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING WELL
SOUTH OF OUR WATERS AND PASSING SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY TO THE INTENSITY AND TRACK OF THE LOW.
GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION...WHICH SHOULD BUILD SEAS TO
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. HAVE UNDERCUT WAVEWATCH BY A LITTLE DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY OF THIS EVENT.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/LN
NEAR TERM...BC/JC/LN
SHORT TERM...LN
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...BC/LN
HYDROLOGY...LN








000
FXUS61 KOKX 221750
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
150 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT...REMAINING
IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS WITH THIS UPDATE...MAINLY WITH CLOUD COVER.
THE CLOUD BUILDUP WE HAVE SEEN IS FROM A CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AS A
TROUGH AXIS/SHORTWAVE ALOFT APPROACHES AND MOVES INTO THE REGION.
LEFT HIGH TEMP FORECAST UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS UPDATE. HIGHS
AT OR A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL.

COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LEND TO GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...UP TO
AROUND 30 MPH AT TIMES.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY AT ATLANTIC OCEAN
FACING BEACHES MAINLY DUE TO A SWELL FROM AN OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...LOW TEMPS WILL
BE ABLE TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S FOR INTERIOR LOCATIONS AND
RANGE TO THE LOWER 50S NEAR THE NYC METRO...QUITE BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

EVEN WITH THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA ON
TUESDAY...LITTLE MOISTURE IS IN PLACE TO PROVIDE FOR MANY CLOUDS.
EXPECTING A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND LIGHT NW-N FLOW.

MAV/MET/GMOS BLEND AGAIN WORKED WELL FOR TEMPS. HIGHS ON TUESDAY
WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...EVENTUALLY LIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. THIS HIGH WILL PROVIDE THE REGION WITH FAIR AND DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS STARTED TO HINT AT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG
ISLAND THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW...THINKING THE HIGH
WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
LOW SOUTH OF THE REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF BACK OVER THE REGION FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK...WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH
THURSDAY...THEN RISE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GUSTY W-NW WINDS 15-20 KT WITH 20-30 KT GUSTS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. WINDS VEER TO MORE OF A NW FLOW BY 00Z. GUSTS WILL
END...AND SUSTAINED WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 10-15 KT. WINDS CONTINUE
TO VEER TO THE N AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AT 5-7 KT.

SEA BREEZES POSSIBLE AT COASTAL TERMINALS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

GENERALLY SCT-BKN CU AT 3500-4500 FT THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND
THEN SKIES CLEAR OUT TONIGHT.

     ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WINDS JUST TO THE
LEFT OF 310 MAG THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE VEERING TO THE RIGHT
OF 310 MAG BY 00Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WINDS JUST OVER 310
MAG...VEERING TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG BY 00Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WINDS JUST OVER 310
MAG...VEERING TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG BY 00Z.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: FU FROM A BRUSH FIRE NEAR KTEB MAY
OCCASIONALLY BE OBSERVED AT THE TERMINAL. OTHERWISE...NW WINDS
WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY AFTERNOON...VFR. SEA BREEZES LIKELY AT COASTAL TERMINALS.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR. LIGHT WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NE.
.WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. E WINDS 10-15 KT.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR CIGS AROUND 300 FT POSSIBLE. E WINDS 10-15
KT.
.THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN TERMINALS...WITH MVFR CONDS ALSO POSSIBLE. E-SE FLOW
THURSDAY...TURNING TO THE NE FRIDAY.
.SATURDAY...VFR. LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
OCEAN SEAS EXPECTED TO RUN 6-9 FT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT THIS
AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON THE
OTHER WATERS BUT GUST FREQUENCY AND ITS COVERAGE ARE NOT
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO GO WITH A SCA IN ANY OF THESE OTHER ZONES.

SEAS DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH WINDS AND WAVES FALLING BELOW
SCA CRITERIA BY TUESDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE
POSSIBILITY OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING WELL
SOUTH OF OUR WATERS AND PASSING SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY TO THE INTENSITY AND TRACK OF THE LOW.
GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION...WHICH SHOULD BUILD SEAS TO
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. HAVE UNDERCUT WAVEWATCH BY A LITTLE DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY OF THIS EVENT.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/LN
NEAR TERM...BC/JC/LN
SHORT TERM...LN
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...BC/LN
HYDROLOGY...LN









000
FXUS61 KALY 221747
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
147 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL AND BRISK CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN IN
CONTROL FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR
MIDWEEK WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 136 PM EDT...PLENTY OF CLOUDS CONTINUE OVER WESTERN PARTS OF
THE AREA THIS AFTN WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE
REGION. WITH STRONG W-NW FLOW...THE CLOUDS ARE DOWNSLOPING OFF THE
HIGH TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS...CATSKILLS AND GREENS...ALLOWING
FOR PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...AS WELL AS THE
CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY OF SE VT AND MUCH OF NORTHWESTERN CT.

WITH LITTLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...IT SHOULD BE FAIRLY DRY.
CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A LIGHT RAIN SHOWER OR SPRINKLE FOR THE
WESTERN ADK/WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY THIS AFTN WHERE SOME LAKE
MOISTURE MAY AID IN PRODUCING PRECIP...BUT RADAR RETURNS ARE
SHOWING MAINLY JUST CLOUDS AT THIS TIME.

WINDS WILL BE QUITE BRISK FROM THE W TO NW...WITH SOME GUSTS OF
25-35 MPH POSSIBLE...ESP IN AREAS WITHIN AND ADJACENT TO THE
MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING...TEMPS TODAY ARE
ALREADY CLOSE TO THEIR HIGHS...AND WILL LIKELY HOLD STEADY THROUGH
THE AFTN BEFORE STARTING TO FALL BY LATE TODAY. TEMPS WILL MAINLY
BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S...WITH A FEW UPPER 60S ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF SOME WIND...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF AT
LEAST PATCHY CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT THE FROST POTENTIAL FOR
TONIGHT...WITH MOST MIN TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S.

TUESDAY...A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING SE ON THE
WEST SIDE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY ALLOW FOR A
PERIOD OF CLOUDS DURING TUE AFTERNOON...ESP FOR AREAS N AND W OF
ALBANY. A FEW SPRINKLES WILL EVEN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH
65-70 IN VALLEYS AND 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

TUE NT-WED NT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS GRADUALLY MODERATING. EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO
FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S BOTH NIGHTS...WITH DAYTIME MAX
TEMPS WED REACHING THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THERE COULD BE SOME
VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING LATE EACH NIGHT...AND WITH VERY LIGHT
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS...COULD TAKE SOME TIME TO BURN OFF WED AM IN
THE DEEPEST VALLEYS...WITH SOME LOW STRATUS POSSIBLY LINGERING IN
SOME AREAS UNTIL MID TO LATE MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
QUIET AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THERE ARE
SOME HINTS OF A COASTAL SYSTEM THURSDAY...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
SOME CLOUDS PERHAPS APPROACHING THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT...BUT NOT MUCH. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER RIDGING
GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES ALSO SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS THURSDAY
SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. HIGHS FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...AROUND 70 IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
TEMPERATURES WARMING ONE OR TWO MORE DEGREES SATURDAY AND AGAIN
SUNDAY...WHEN HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 80...COOLER IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 18Z TUESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
SOME MVFR CIGS AT TIMES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AT KPSF. SKIES
WILL BECOME SKC THIS EVENING AND REMAIN SO THROUGH THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD. AT THIS POINT DO NOT EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP AT THE TAF
SITES AS THERE SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH GRADIENT TO KEEP THINGS MIXED
OVERNIGHT.

WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING WITH WINDS FROM
THE W-NW AT 10-16 KTS GUSTY TO 20-30 KTS AT TIMES...WINDS WILL
BECOME VARIABLE AROUND 3 KTS AFT 02Z AND THEN INCREASE 6-7 KTS
AND BE VARIABLE IN TERMS OF DIRECTION AFTER 15Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25-35 MPH TODAY...

STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE REGION TODAY...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL PRODUCE A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION...LEADING TO GUSTY WINDS.

RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 45-55 PERCENT RANGE IN VALLEYS...AND
55-70 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE RECOVERING TO 90-100 PERCENT WITH SOME DEW
FORMATION POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK. RH VALUES SHOULD DROP TO 40-50
PERCENT IN VALLEYS...AND 50-70 PERCENT ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
FOR TUE AFTERNOON.

W TO NW WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15-25 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE AT TIMES TODAY. W/NW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO
5-15 MPH LATE TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVED ACROSS THE REGION LAST EVENING...WITH ONLY
SCATTERED...LIGHT RAINFALL AMTS OF GENERALLY UNDER ONE TENTH OF AN
INCH...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS OCCURRED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY. THESE AMTS WILL HAVE
NEGLIGIBLE EFFECTS ON AREA RIVERS/STREAMS.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/KL/GJM
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL/11
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM








000
FXUS61 KALY 221747
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
147 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL AND BRISK CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN IN
CONTROL FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR
MIDWEEK WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 136 PM EDT...PLENTY OF CLOUDS CONTINUE OVER WESTERN PARTS OF
THE AREA THIS AFTN WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE
REGION. WITH STRONG W-NW FLOW...THE CLOUDS ARE DOWNSLOPING OFF THE
HIGH TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS...CATSKILLS AND GREENS...ALLOWING
FOR PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...AS WELL AS THE
CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY OF SE VT AND MUCH OF NORTHWESTERN CT.

WITH LITTLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...IT SHOULD BE FAIRLY DRY.
CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A LIGHT RAIN SHOWER OR SPRINKLE FOR THE
WESTERN ADK/WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY THIS AFTN WHERE SOME LAKE
MOISTURE MAY AID IN PRODUCING PRECIP...BUT RADAR RETURNS ARE
SHOWING MAINLY JUST CLOUDS AT THIS TIME.

WINDS WILL BE QUITE BRISK FROM THE W TO NW...WITH SOME GUSTS OF
25-35 MPH POSSIBLE...ESP IN AREAS WITHIN AND ADJACENT TO THE
MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING...TEMPS TODAY ARE
ALREADY CLOSE TO THEIR HIGHS...AND WILL LIKELY HOLD STEADY THROUGH
THE AFTN BEFORE STARTING TO FALL BY LATE TODAY. TEMPS WILL MAINLY
BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S...WITH A FEW UPPER 60S ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF SOME WIND...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF AT
LEAST PATCHY CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT THE FROST POTENTIAL FOR
TONIGHT...WITH MOST MIN TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S.

TUESDAY...A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING SE ON THE
WEST SIDE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY ALLOW FOR A
PERIOD OF CLOUDS DURING TUE AFTERNOON...ESP FOR AREAS N AND W OF
ALBANY. A FEW SPRINKLES WILL EVEN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH
65-70 IN VALLEYS AND 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

TUE NT-WED NT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS GRADUALLY MODERATING. EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO
FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S BOTH NIGHTS...WITH DAYTIME MAX
TEMPS WED REACHING THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THERE COULD BE SOME
VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING LATE EACH NIGHT...AND WITH VERY LIGHT
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS...COULD TAKE SOME TIME TO BURN OFF WED AM IN
THE DEEPEST VALLEYS...WITH SOME LOW STRATUS POSSIBLY LINGERING IN
SOME AREAS UNTIL MID TO LATE MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
QUIET AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THERE ARE
SOME HINTS OF A COASTAL SYSTEM THURSDAY...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
SOME CLOUDS PERHAPS APPROACHING THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT...BUT NOT MUCH. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER RIDGING
GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES ALSO SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS THURSDAY
SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. HIGHS FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...AROUND 70 IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
TEMPERATURES WARMING ONE OR TWO MORE DEGREES SATURDAY AND AGAIN
SUNDAY...WHEN HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 80...COOLER IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 18Z TUESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
SOME MVFR CIGS AT TIMES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AT KPSF. SKIES
WILL BECOME SKC THIS EVENING AND REMAIN SO THROUGH THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD. AT THIS POINT DO NOT EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP AT THE TAF
SITES AS THERE SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH GRADIENT TO KEEP THINGS MIXED
OVERNIGHT.

WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING WITH WINDS FROM
THE W-NW AT 10-16 KTS GUSTY TO 20-30 KTS AT TIMES...WINDS WILL
BECOME VARIABLE AROUND 3 KTS AFT 02Z AND THEN INCREASE 6-7 KTS
AND BE VARIABLE IN TERMS OF DIRECTION AFTER 15Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25-35 MPH TODAY...

STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE REGION TODAY...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL PRODUCE A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION...LEADING TO GUSTY WINDS.

RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 45-55 PERCENT RANGE IN VALLEYS...AND
55-70 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE RECOVERING TO 90-100 PERCENT WITH SOME DEW
FORMATION POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK. RH VALUES SHOULD DROP TO 40-50
PERCENT IN VALLEYS...AND 50-70 PERCENT ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
FOR TUE AFTERNOON.

W TO NW WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15-25 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE AT TIMES TODAY. W/NW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO
5-15 MPH LATE TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVED ACROSS THE REGION LAST EVENING...WITH ONLY
SCATTERED...LIGHT RAINFALL AMTS OF GENERALLY UNDER ONE TENTH OF AN
INCH...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS OCCURRED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY. THESE AMTS WILL HAVE
NEGLIGIBLE EFFECTS ON AREA RIVERS/STREAMS.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/KL/GJM
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL/11
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM







000
FXUS61 KALY 221746
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
146 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL AND BRISK CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN IN
CONTROL FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR
MIDWEEK WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 136 PM EDT...PLENTY OF CLOUDS CONTINUE OVER WESTERN PARTS OF
THE AREA THIS AFTN WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE
REGION. WITH STRONG W-NW FLOW...THE CLOUDS ARE DOWNSLOPING OFF THE
HIGH TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS...CATSKILLS AND GREENS...ALLOWING
FOR PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...AS WELL AS THE
CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY OF SE VT AND MUCH OF NORTHWESTERN CT.

WITH LITTLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...IT SHOULD BE FAIRLY DRY.
CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A LIGHT RAIN SHOWER OR SPRINKLE FOR THE
WESTERN ADK/WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY THIS AFTN WHERE SOME LAKE
MOISTURE MAY AID IN PRODUCING PRECIP...BUT RADAR RETURNS ARE
SHOWING MAINLY JUST CLOUDS AT THIS TIME.

WINDS WILL BE QUITE BRISK FROM THE W TO NW...WITH SOME GUSTS OF
25-35 MPH POSSIBLE...ESP IN AREAS WITHIN AND ADJACENT TO THE
MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING...TEMPS TODAY ARE
ALREADY CLOSE TO THEIR HIGHS...AND WILL LIKELY HOLD STEADY THROUGH
THE AFTN BEFORE STARTING TO FALL BY LATE TODAY. TEMPS WILL MAINLY
BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S...WITH A FEW UPPER 60S ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF SOME WIND...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF AT
LEAST PATCHY CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT THE FROST POTENTIAL FOR
TONIGHT...WITH MOST MIN TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S.

TUESDAY...A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING SE ON THE
WEST SIDE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY ALLOW FOR A
PERIOD OF CLOUDS DURING TUE AFTERNOON...ESP FOR AREAS N AND W OF
ALBANY. A FEW SPRINKLES WILL EVEN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH
65-70 IN VALLEYS AND 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

TUE NT-WED NT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS GRADUALLY MODERATING. EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO
FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S BOTH NIGHTS...WITH DAYTIME MAX
TEMPS WED REACHING THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THERE COULD BE SOME
VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING LATE EACH NIGHT...AND WITH VERY LIGHT
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS...COULD TAKE SOME TIME TO BURN OFF WED AM IN
THE DEEPEST VALLEYS...WITH SOME LOW STRATUS POSSIBLY LINGERING IN
SOME AREAS UNTIL MID TO LATE MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
QUIET AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THERE ARE
SOME HINTS OF A COASTAL SYSTEM THURSDAY...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
SOME CLOUDS PERHAPS APPROACHING THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT...BUT NOT MUCH. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER RIDGING
GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES ALSO SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS THURSDAY
SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. HIGHS FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...AROUND 70 IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
TEMPERATURES WARMING ONE OR TWO MORE DEGREES SATURDAY AND AGAIN
SUNDAY...WHEN HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 80...COOLER IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 18Z TUESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
COME MVFR CIGS AT TIMES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AT KPSF. SKIES
WILL BECOME SKC THIS EVENING AND REMAIN SO THROUGH THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD. AT THIS POINT DO NOT EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP AT THE
TAF SITES AS THERE SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH GRADIENT TO KEEP THINGS
MIXED OVERNIGHT.

WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING WITH WINDS FROM
THE W-NW AT 10-16 KTS GUSTY TO 20-30 KTS AT TIMES...WINDS WILL
BECOME VARIABLE AROUND 3 KTS AFT 02Z AND THEN INCREASE 6-7 KTS
AND BE VARIABLE IN TERMS OF DIRECTION AFTER 15Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25-35 MPH TODAY...

STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE REGION TODAY...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL PRODUCE A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION...LEADING TO GUSTY WINDS.

RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 45-55 PERCENT RANGE IN VALLEYS...AND
55-70 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE RECOVERING TO 90-100 PERCENT WITH SOME DEW
FORMATION POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK. RH VALUES SHOULD DROP TO 40-50
PERCENT IN VALLEYS...AND 50-70 PERCENT ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
FOR TUE AFTERNOON.

W TO NW WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15-25 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE AT TIMES TODAY. W/NW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO
5-15 MPH LATE TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVED ACROSS THE REGION LAST EVENING...WITH ONLY
SCATTERED...LIGHT RAINFALL AMTS OF GENERALLY UNDER ONE TENTH OF AN
INCH...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS OCCURRED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY. THESE AMTS WILL HAVE
NEGLIGIBLE EFFECTS ON AREA RIVERS/STREAMS.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/KL/GJM
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL/11
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM








000
FXUS61 KALY 221746
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
146 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL AND BRISK CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN IN
CONTROL FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR
MIDWEEK WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 136 PM EDT...PLENTY OF CLOUDS CONTINUE OVER WESTERN PARTS OF
THE AREA THIS AFTN WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE
REGION. WITH STRONG W-NW FLOW...THE CLOUDS ARE DOWNSLOPING OFF THE
HIGH TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS...CATSKILLS AND GREENS...ALLOWING
FOR PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...AS WELL AS THE
CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY OF SE VT AND MUCH OF NORTHWESTERN CT.

WITH LITTLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...IT SHOULD BE FAIRLY DRY.
CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A LIGHT RAIN SHOWER OR SPRINKLE FOR THE
WESTERN ADK/WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY THIS AFTN WHERE SOME LAKE
MOISTURE MAY AID IN PRODUCING PRECIP...BUT RADAR RETURNS ARE
SHOWING MAINLY JUST CLOUDS AT THIS TIME.

WINDS WILL BE QUITE BRISK FROM THE W TO NW...WITH SOME GUSTS OF
25-35 MPH POSSIBLE...ESP IN AREAS WITHIN AND ADJACENT TO THE
MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING...TEMPS TODAY ARE
ALREADY CLOSE TO THEIR HIGHS...AND WILL LIKELY HOLD STEADY THROUGH
THE AFTN BEFORE STARTING TO FALL BY LATE TODAY. TEMPS WILL MAINLY
BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S...WITH A FEW UPPER 60S ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF SOME WIND...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF AT
LEAST PATCHY CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT THE FROST POTENTIAL FOR
TONIGHT...WITH MOST MIN TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S.

TUESDAY...A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING SE ON THE
WEST SIDE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY ALLOW FOR A
PERIOD OF CLOUDS DURING TUE AFTERNOON...ESP FOR AREAS N AND W OF
ALBANY. A FEW SPRINKLES WILL EVEN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH
65-70 IN VALLEYS AND 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

TUE NT-WED NT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS GRADUALLY MODERATING. EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO
FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S BOTH NIGHTS...WITH DAYTIME MAX
TEMPS WED REACHING THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THERE COULD BE SOME
VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING LATE EACH NIGHT...AND WITH VERY LIGHT
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS...COULD TAKE SOME TIME TO BURN OFF WED AM IN
THE DEEPEST VALLEYS...WITH SOME LOW STRATUS POSSIBLY LINGERING IN
SOME AREAS UNTIL MID TO LATE MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
QUIET AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THERE ARE
SOME HINTS OF A COASTAL SYSTEM THURSDAY...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
SOME CLOUDS PERHAPS APPROACHING THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT...BUT NOT MUCH. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER RIDGING
GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES ALSO SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS THURSDAY
SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. HIGHS FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...AROUND 70 IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
TEMPERATURES WARMING ONE OR TWO MORE DEGREES SATURDAY AND AGAIN
SUNDAY...WHEN HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 80...COOLER IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 18Z TUESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
COME MVFR CIGS AT TIMES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AT KPSF. SKIES
WILL BECOME SKC THIS EVENING AND REMAIN SO THROUGH THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD. AT THIS POINT DO NOT EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP AT THE
TAF SITES AS THERE SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH GRADIENT TO KEEP THINGS
MIXED OVERNIGHT.

WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING WITH WINDS FROM
THE W-NW AT 10-16 KTS GUSTY TO 20-30 KTS AT TIMES...WINDS WILL
BECOME VARIABLE AROUND 3 KTS AFT 02Z AND THEN INCREASE 6-7 KTS
AND BE VARIABLE IN TERMS OF DIRECTION AFTER 15Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25-35 MPH TODAY...

STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE REGION TODAY...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL PRODUCE A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION...LEADING TO GUSTY WINDS.

RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 45-55 PERCENT RANGE IN VALLEYS...AND
55-70 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE RECOVERING TO 90-100 PERCENT WITH SOME DEW
FORMATION POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK. RH VALUES SHOULD DROP TO 40-50
PERCENT IN VALLEYS...AND 50-70 PERCENT ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
FOR TUE AFTERNOON.

W TO NW WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15-25 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE AT TIMES TODAY. W/NW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO
5-15 MPH LATE TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVED ACROSS THE REGION LAST EVENING...WITH ONLY
SCATTERED...LIGHT RAINFALL AMTS OF GENERALLY UNDER ONE TENTH OF AN
INCH...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS OCCURRED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY. THESE AMTS WILL HAVE
NEGLIGIBLE EFFECTS ON AREA RIVERS/STREAMS.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/KL/GJM
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL/11
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM








000
FXUS61 KALY 221746
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
146 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL AND BRISK CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN IN
CONTROL FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR
MIDWEEK WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 136 PM EDT...PLENTY OF CLOUDS CONTINUE OVER WESTERN PARTS OF
THE AREA THIS AFTN WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE
REGION. WITH STRONG W-NW FLOW...THE CLOUDS ARE DOWNSLOPING OFF THE
HIGH TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS...CATSKILLS AND GREENS...ALLOWING
FOR PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...AS WELL AS THE
CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY OF SE VT AND MUCH OF NORTHWESTERN CT.

WITH LITTLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...IT SHOULD BE FAIRLY DRY.
CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A LIGHT RAIN SHOWER OR SPRINKLE FOR THE
WESTERN ADK/WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY THIS AFTN WHERE SOME LAKE
MOISTURE MAY AID IN PRODUCING PRECIP...BUT RADAR RETURNS ARE
SHOWING MAINLY JUST CLOUDS AT THIS TIME.

WINDS WILL BE QUITE BRISK FROM THE W TO NW...WITH SOME GUSTS OF
25-35 MPH POSSIBLE...ESP IN AREAS WITHIN AND ADJACENT TO THE
MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING...TEMPS TODAY ARE
ALREADY CLOSE TO THEIR HIGHS...AND WILL LIKELY HOLD STEADY THROUGH
THE AFTN BEFORE STARTING TO FALL BY LATE TODAY. TEMPS WILL MAINLY
BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S...WITH A FEW UPPER 60S ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF SOME WIND...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF AT
LEAST PATCHY CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT THE FROST POTENTIAL FOR
TONIGHT...WITH MOST MIN TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S.

TUESDAY...A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING SE ON THE
WEST SIDE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY ALLOW FOR A
PERIOD OF CLOUDS DURING TUE AFTERNOON...ESP FOR AREAS N AND W OF
ALBANY. A FEW SPRINKLES WILL EVEN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH
65-70 IN VALLEYS AND 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

TUE NT-WED NT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS GRADUALLY MODERATING. EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO
FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S BOTH NIGHTS...WITH DAYTIME MAX
TEMPS WED REACHING THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THERE COULD BE SOME
VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING LATE EACH NIGHT...AND WITH VERY LIGHT
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS...COULD TAKE SOME TIME TO BURN OFF WED AM IN
THE DEEPEST VALLEYS...WITH SOME LOW STRATUS POSSIBLY LINGERING IN
SOME AREAS UNTIL MID TO LATE MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
QUIET AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THERE ARE
SOME HINTS OF A COASTAL SYSTEM THURSDAY...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
SOME CLOUDS PERHAPS APPROACHING THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT...BUT NOT MUCH. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER RIDGING
GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES ALSO SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS THURSDAY
SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. HIGHS FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...AROUND 70 IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
TEMPERATURES WARMING ONE OR TWO MORE DEGREES SATURDAY AND AGAIN
SUNDAY...WHEN HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 80...COOLER IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 18Z TUESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
COME MVFR CIGS AT TIMES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AT KPSF. SKIES
WILL BECOME SKC THIS EVENING AND REMAIN SO THROUGH THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD. AT THIS POINT DO NOT EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP AT THE
TAF SITES AS THERE SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH GRADIENT TO KEEP THINGS
MIXED OVERNIGHT.

WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING WITH WINDS FROM
THE W-NW AT 10-16 KTS GUSTY TO 20-30 KTS AT TIMES...WINDS WILL
BECOME VARIABLE AROUND 3 KTS AFT 02Z AND THEN INCREASE 6-7 KTS
AND BE VARIABLE IN TERMS OF DIRECTION AFTER 15Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25-35 MPH TODAY...

STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE REGION TODAY...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL PRODUCE A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION...LEADING TO GUSTY WINDS.

RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 45-55 PERCENT RANGE IN VALLEYS...AND
55-70 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE RECOVERING TO 90-100 PERCENT WITH SOME DEW
FORMATION POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK. RH VALUES SHOULD DROP TO 40-50
PERCENT IN VALLEYS...AND 50-70 PERCENT ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
FOR TUE AFTERNOON.

W TO NW WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15-25 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE AT TIMES TODAY. W/NW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO
5-15 MPH LATE TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVED ACROSS THE REGION LAST EVENING...WITH ONLY
SCATTERED...LIGHT RAINFALL AMTS OF GENERALLY UNDER ONE TENTH OF AN
INCH...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS OCCURRED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY. THESE AMTS WILL HAVE
NEGLIGIBLE EFFECTS ON AREA RIVERS/STREAMS.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/KL/GJM
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL/11
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM








000
FXUS61 KALY 221746
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
146 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL AND BRISK CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN IN
CONTROL FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR
MIDWEEK WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 136 PM EDT...PLENTY OF CLOUDS CONTINUE OVER WESTERN PARTS OF
THE AREA THIS AFTN WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE
REGION. WITH STRONG W-NW FLOW...THE CLOUDS ARE DOWNSLOPING OFF THE
HIGH TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS...CATSKILLS AND GREENS...ALLOWING
FOR PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...AS WELL AS THE
CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY OF SE VT AND MUCH OF NORTHWESTERN CT.

WITH LITTLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...IT SHOULD BE FAIRLY DRY.
CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A LIGHT RAIN SHOWER OR SPRINKLE FOR THE
WESTERN ADK/WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY THIS AFTN WHERE SOME LAKE
MOISTURE MAY AID IN PRODUCING PRECIP...BUT RADAR RETURNS ARE
SHOWING MAINLY JUST CLOUDS AT THIS TIME.

WINDS WILL BE QUITE BRISK FROM THE W TO NW...WITH SOME GUSTS OF
25-35 MPH POSSIBLE...ESP IN AREAS WITHIN AND ADJACENT TO THE
MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING...TEMPS TODAY ARE
ALREADY CLOSE TO THEIR HIGHS...AND WILL LIKELY HOLD STEADY THROUGH
THE AFTN BEFORE STARTING TO FALL BY LATE TODAY. TEMPS WILL MAINLY
BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S...WITH A FEW UPPER 60S ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF SOME WIND...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF AT
LEAST PATCHY CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT THE FROST POTENTIAL FOR
TONIGHT...WITH MOST MIN TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S.

TUESDAY...A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING SE ON THE
WEST SIDE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY ALLOW FOR A
PERIOD OF CLOUDS DURING TUE AFTERNOON...ESP FOR AREAS N AND W OF
ALBANY. A FEW SPRINKLES WILL EVEN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH
65-70 IN VALLEYS AND 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

TUE NT-WED NT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS GRADUALLY MODERATING. EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO
FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S BOTH NIGHTS...WITH DAYTIME MAX
TEMPS WED REACHING THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THERE COULD BE SOME
VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING LATE EACH NIGHT...AND WITH VERY LIGHT
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS...COULD TAKE SOME TIME TO BURN OFF WED AM IN
THE DEEPEST VALLEYS...WITH SOME LOW STRATUS POSSIBLY LINGERING IN
SOME AREAS UNTIL MID TO LATE MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
QUIET AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THERE ARE
SOME HINTS OF A COASTAL SYSTEM THURSDAY...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
SOME CLOUDS PERHAPS APPROACHING THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT...BUT NOT MUCH. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER RIDGING
GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES ALSO SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS THURSDAY
SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. HIGHS FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...AROUND 70 IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
TEMPERATURES WARMING ONE OR TWO MORE DEGREES SATURDAY AND AGAIN
SUNDAY...WHEN HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 80...COOLER IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 18Z TUESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
COME MVFR CIGS AT TIMES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AT KPSF. SKIES
WILL BECOME SKC THIS EVENING AND REMAIN SO THROUGH THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD. AT THIS POINT DO NOT EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP AT THE
TAF SITES AS THERE SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH GRADIENT TO KEEP THINGS
MIXED OVERNIGHT.

WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING WITH WINDS FROM
THE W-NW AT 10-16 KTS GUSTY TO 20-30 KTS AT TIMES...WINDS WILL
BECOME VARIABLE AROUND 3 KTS AFT 02Z AND THEN INCREASE 6-7 KTS
AND BE VARIABLE IN TERMS OF DIRECTION AFTER 15Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25-35 MPH TODAY...

STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE REGION TODAY...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL PRODUCE A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION...LEADING TO GUSTY WINDS.

RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 45-55 PERCENT RANGE IN VALLEYS...AND
55-70 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE RECOVERING TO 90-100 PERCENT WITH SOME DEW
FORMATION POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK. RH VALUES SHOULD DROP TO 40-50
PERCENT IN VALLEYS...AND 50-70 PERCENT ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
FOR TUE AFTERNOON.

W TO NW WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15-25 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE AT TIMES TODAY. W/NW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO
5-15 MPH LATE TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVED ACROSS THE REGION LAST EVENING...WITH ONLY
SCATTERED...LIGHT RAINFALL AMTS OF GENERALLY UNDER ONE TENTH OF AN
INCH...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS OCCURRED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY. THESE AMTS WILL HAVE
NEGLIGIBLE EFFECTS ON AREA RIVERS/STREAMS.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/KL/GJM
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL/11
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM








000
FXUS61 KBOX 221745
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
145 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRIER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS OVERSPREADS THE REGION TODAY BEHIND
A DEPARTING COLD FRONT THIS MORNING...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS. THIS AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE REGION MUCH
OF THE WEEK YIELDING MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS. BY WEEKS END TEMPERATURES
BEGIN TO WARM WITH POSSIBLE RECORD WARMTH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
145 PM UPDATE...
DEWPOINTS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF SNE AS GUSTY
W/NW WINDS ADVECT MUCH DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. SCT DIURNAL CU
HAS DEVELOPED BUT GREATER COVERAGE OF CLOUDS NORTH AND WEST OF
SNE. FORECAST ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT OFFSHORE WITH GUSTY WEST WIND USHERING IN MUCH DRIER
AIRMASS AS DEWPOINTS FALL THROUGH THE 50S AND INTO THE 40S.
DIURNAL CU EXPECTED WITH GREATEST COVERAGE IN THE INTERIOR. STRONG
LOW LEVEL CAA...ESPECIALLY WEST WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 60S BUT
REACHING INTO THE 70S IN THE COASTAL PLAIN WHERE STRONGER CAA IS
DELAYED UNTIL AFTER 18Z. GOOD MIXING WILL YIELD WIND GUSTS TO
25-30 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS OVER THE ELEVATED TERRAIN.
CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK SO NO MAJOR CHANGES.

A BUILDING OFFSHORE SWELL TODAY...WILL YIELD HIGH SURF
PARTICULARLY AT SOUTH COASTAL BEACHES TODAY. THEREFORE...WILL
CONTINUE HIGH SURF ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
COOL DRY AIRMASS SETTLES IN PLACE AS NOSE OF STRONG 1035 HPA HIGH
PRES MOVES IN FROM THE W. IN SPITE OF THIS MORE AUTUMN-LIKE
AIRMASS...MINS MAY NOT BE ABLE TO REALIZE THEIR FULL POTENTIAL.
THE COMBINATION OF LINGERING DIURNAL CU EARLY...AND SFC PRES
GRADIENT TAKING SOME TIME TO FULLY SLACKEN MAY LIMIT RADIATIONAL
COOLING. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S-MID 40S ARE LIKELY...WITH MINS
CLOSER TO 50 IN THE URBAN SPOTS. THE COLDEST SPOTS ARE LIKELY IN
NW MA AND SW NH. IT/S VERY CLOSE TO FROST THRESHOLDS...BUT WITH
THE MITIGATING FACTORS MENTIONED...NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ISSUE
FROST ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED THROUGH
THE DAY.

TUE...
HIGH PRES BEGINS TO CREST ACROSS THE REGION ON TUE.
THEREFORE...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED. H85 TEMPS HOVER
AROUND +6C...BUT MAY NOT BE FULLY REALIZED UNDER STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THEREFORE...KEEPING HIGHS GENERALLY A DEGREE
OR TWO BELOW NORMAL. MAINLY THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* THE 1ST WEEK OF AUTUMN WILL FEATURE MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS
  FOLLOWED BY POTENTIAL NEAR RECORD WARMTH NEXT WEEKEND

* HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD

     SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL EVALUATION...

FAIRLY STRONG TELECONNECTION FOR RIDGING HERE IN THE EAST THIS
COMING WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND AS +PNA TRENDS TOWARD NEUTRAL ALONG
WITH NAO AND AO TRENDING OR REMAINING POSITIVE. DURING THIS TIME THE
LARGE SCALE FLOW EVOLVES INTO A WEST COAST TROUGH WITH A DOWNSTREAM
RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES NORTHWARD TOWARD JAMES BAY.  THIS IS A
WARM AND DRY SETUP FOR NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER GIVEN THE CHAOTIC NATURE
OF THE ATMOSPHERE THERE ARE ALWAYS WILDCARDS AT THIS TIME RANGE AND
THIS CASE IS NO EXCEPTION.

THE FIRST WILDCARD WILL BE THE DOWNSTREAM MEAN TROUGH OVER THE
MARITIMES. WILL HAVE TO WATCH IF ANY NORTHERN STREAM IMPULSES
CLIMBING OVER THE GREAT LAKES RIDGE AND THEN INTO THE MARITIMES
DRAGS ANY BACKDOOR FRONTS INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WOULD YIELD
COOLER TEMPS ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN MA. THE OTHER WILDCARD WILL BE
MOISTURE AND JET ENERGY THAT BREAKS OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES
FROM THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD TODAY.
SOME OF THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE HAS THIS MOISTURE/INVERTED TROUGH
CREEPING NORTHWARD DURING THIS WEEK AND GETTING CLOSE TO NEW ENGLAND
WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT BEFORE THEN GETTING SHUNTED OUT TO SEA FRI.

OTHERWISE DESPITE AUTUMN ARRIVING LATER TODAY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
DELIVERS ONE OR MORE DAYS OF ANOMALOUS WARMTH TO THE REGION NEXT
WEEKEND. THE 12Z ECENS AND 00Z GEFS HAVE 850 TEMPS WARMING TO +14C
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS TIME.

     DAILY SENSIBLE WEATHER DETAILS...

TUESDAY NIGHT THRU THU...

DRY AIRMASS OVER NEW ENGLAND ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AS SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA WILL YIELD IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. THIS WILL RESULT IN CHILLY NIGHTS WITH MOST LOCATIONS
DIPPING INTO THE 40S OUTSIDE THE URBAN AREAS AND AWAY FROM THE
COASTLINE. HOWEVER AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL RECOVER NICELY TO 65-70.
GIVEN PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE HIGH WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH LOCAL
SEABREEZES DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS WILL STRAY AWAY FROM A MODEL BLEND AND FOLLOW THE
COOLER MOS GUIDANCE AND EVEN SHAVE OFF A FEW MORE DEGS IN THE
TYPICALLY COOLER LOCATIONS /I.E. NORWOOD-TAUNTON-MARTHAS VINEYARD-
ETC/. AS MENTIONED ABOVE WILL HAVE TO WATCH MOISTURE AND INVERTED
TROUGH CREEPING UP THE COAST WED NIGHT THRU THU NIGHT. 00Z GEFS HAS
TRENDED NORTH WITH LOW PROBS OF 0.05 QPF ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. THIS
SUPPORTS THE FARTHER NORTH SOLUTION OF THE OPERATIONAL 00Z GFS. IN
ADDITION A MODEL BLEND OF ALL DATASETS BRINGS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO
THE SOUTH COAST WITH A MODEL BLEND OF QPF BRINGING MEASURABLE RAIN
INTO NORTHERN CT-RI TO SOUTHERN SUBURBS OF BOSTON.


FRI/SAT AND SUN...

SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS WESTWARD FROM OVER NEW ENGLAND TO ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS YIELDS A WARMER WNW LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW INTO NEW
ENGLAND. THIS SHOULD YIELD TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S FRI AND THEN
PUSHING 80 OR SO NEXT WEEKEND. THE RECORDS FOR THE DAY INCLUDE

     9/27...

BOS...86...1998
BDL...88...1998
PVD...86...1998
ORH...85...1933

GIVEN THE TIME RANGE HERE ALONG WITH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WILL
FOLLOW A MODEL BLEND. HUMIDITY SHOULD BE IN THE COMFORTABLE RANGE
GIVEN WNW LOW LEVEL LAND TRAJECTORY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. N/NW WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON...
DIMINISHING TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS TUE AND TUE NIGHT WITH LOW PROB
OF A SEABREEZE TUE AFTERNOON.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LOW PROB OF A SEABREEZE TUE
AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR EACH DAY. EXCEPTION WILL BE A LOW RISK OF
MVFR IN SHOWERS SOUTH COAST INCLUDING THE ISLANDS FROM WED NIGHT
THRU THU NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SLOWLY BUILDING SWELL MAY APPROACH 10 FT WELL OFFSHORE...BUT
INCREASE TO 5-8FT CLOSER TO THE THE SRN NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH
THE DAY...AS W-NW WINDS REACH ABOUT 25 KT. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED AND WILL CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT...DROPPING CLOSE TO SHORE THIS EVENING AS WINDS
DIMINISH. HOWEVER...THE SWELL MAY TAKE UNTIL EARLY TUE MORNING TO
COMPLETELY DIMINISH ON THE S AND SE WATERS.

TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
AFTER THE LEFTOVER SWELL SUBSIDES...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF QUIET
BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRES BEGINS TO CREST OVER THE
WATERS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

LIGHT WINDS THRU THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRES REMAINS OVER OR NEAR THE
REGION. DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY TOO. POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WILL BE
RAIN SHOWERS WED NIGHT THRU THU NIGHT AS MOISTURE ADVECTS UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ020>024.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     236-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...KJC/NOCERA
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 221745
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
145 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRIER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS OVERSPREADS THE REGION TODAY BEHIND
A DEPARTING COLD FRONT THIS MORNING...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS. THIS AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE REGION MUCH
OF THE WEEK YIELDING MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS. BY WEEKS END TEMPERATURES
BEGIN TO WARM WITH POSSIBLE RECORD WARMTH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
145 PM UPDATE...
DEWPOINTS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF SNE AS GUSTY
W/NW WINDS ADVECT MUCH DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. SCT DIURNAL CU
HAS DEVELOPED BUT GREATER COVERAGE OF CLOUDS NORTH AND WEST OF
SNE. FORECAST ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT OFFSHORE WITH GUSTY WEST WIND USHERING IN MUCH DRIER
AIRMASS AS DEWPOINTS FALL THROUGH THE 50S AND INTO THE 40S.
DIURNAL CU EXPECTED WITH GREATEST COVERAGE IN THE INTERIOR. STRONG
LOW LEVEL CAA...ESPECIALLY WEST WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 60S BUT
REACHING INTO THE 70S IN THE COASTAL PLAIN WHERE STRONGER CAA IS
DELAYED UNTIL AFTER 18Z. GOOD MIXING WILL YIELD WIND GUSTS TO
25-30 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS OVER THE ELEVATED TERRAIN.
CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK SO NO MAJOR CHANGES.

A BUILDING OFFSHORE SWELL TODAY...WILL YIELD HIGH SURF
PARTICULARLY AT SOUTH COASTAL BEACHES TODAY. THEREFORE...WILL
CONTINUE HIGH SURF ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
COOL DRY AIRMASS SETTLES IN PLACE AS NOSE OF STRONG 1035 HPA HIGH
PRES MOVES IN FROM THE W. IN SPITE OF THIS MORE AUTUMN-LIKE
AIRMASS...MINS MAY NOT BE ABLE TO REALIZE THEIR FULL POTENTIAL.
THE COMBINATION OF LINGERING DIURNAL CU EARLY...AND SFC PRES
GRADIENT TAKING SOME TIME TO FULLY SLACKEN MAY LIMIT RADIATIONAL
COOLING. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S-MID 40S ARE LIKELY...WITH MINS
CLOSER TO 50 IN THE URBAN SPOTS. THE COLDEST SPOTS ARE LIKELY IN
NW MA AND SW NH. IT/S VERY CLOSE TO FROST THRESHOLDS...BUT WITH
THE MITIGATING FACTORS MENTIONED...NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ISSUE
FROST ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED THROUGH
THE DAY.

TUE...
HIGH PRES BEGINS TO CREST ACROSS THE REGION ON TUE.
THEREFORE...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED. H85 TEMPS HOVER
AROUND +6C...BUT MAY NOT BE FULLY REALIZED UNDER STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THEREFORE...KEEPING HIGHS GENERALLY A DEGREE
OR TWO BELOW NORMAL. MAINLY THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* THE 1ST WEEK OF AUTUMN WILL FEATURE MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS
  FOLLOWED BY POTENTIAL NEAR RECORD WARMTH NEXT WEEKEND

* HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD

     SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL EVALUATION...

FAIRLY STRONG TELECONNECTION FOR RIDGING HERE IN THE EAST THIS
COMING WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND AS +PNA TRENDS TOWARD NEUTRAL ALONG
WITH NAO AND AO TRENDING OR REMAINING POSITIVE. DURING THIS TIME THE
LARGE SCALE FLOW EVOLVES INTO A WEST COAST TROUGH WITH A DOWNSTREAM
RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES NORTHWARD TOWARD JAMES BAY.  THIS IS A
WARM AND DRY SETUP FOR NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER GIVEN THE CHAOTIC NATURE
OF THE ATMOSPHERE THERE ARE ALWAYS WILDCARDS AT THIS TIME RANGE AND
THIS CASE IS NO EXCEPTION.

THE FIRST WILDCARD WILL BE THE DOWNSTREAM MEAN TROUGH OVER THE
MARITIMES. WILL HAVE TO WATCH IF ANY NORTHERN STREAM IMPULSES
CLIMBING OVER THE GREAT LAKES RIDGE AND THEN INTO THE MARITIMES
DRAGS ANY BACKDOOR FRONTS INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WOULD YIELD
COOLER TEMPS ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN MA. THE OTHER WILDCARD WILL BE
MOISTURE AND JET ENERGY THAT BREAKS OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES
FROM THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD TODAY.
SOME OF THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE HAS THIS MOISTURE/INVERTED TROUGH
CREEPING NORTHWARD DURING THIS WEEK AND GETTING CLOSE TO NEW ENGLAND
WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT BEFORE THEN GETTING SHUNTED OUT TO SEA FRI.

OTHERWISE DESPITE AUTUMN ARRIVING LATER TODAY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
DELIVERS ONE OR MORE DAYS OF ANOMALOUS WARMTH TO THE REGION NEXT
WEEKEND. THE 12Z ECENS AND 00Z GEFS HAVE 850 TEMPS WARMING TO +14C
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS TIME.

     DAILY SENSIBLE WEATHER DETAILS...

TUESDAY NIGHT THRU THU...

DRY AIRMASS OVER NEW ENGLAND ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AS SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA WILL YIELD IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. THIS WILL RESULT IN CHILLY NIGHTS WITH MOST LOCATIONS
DIPPING INTO THE 40S OUTSIDE THE URBAN AREAS AND AWAY FROM THE
COASTLINE. HOWEVER AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL RECOVER NICELY TO 65-70.
GIVEN PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE HIGH WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH LOCAL
SEABREEZES DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS WILL STRAY AWAY FROM A MODEL BLEND AND FOLLOW THE
COOLER MOS GUIDANCE AND EVEN SHAVE OFF A FEW MORE DEGS IN THE
TYPICALLY COOLER LOCATIONS /I.E. NORWOOD-TAUNTON-MARTHAS VINEYARD-
ETC/. AS MENTIONED ABOVE WILL HAVE TO WATCH MOISTURE AND INVERTED
TROUGH CREEPING UP THE COAST WED NIGHT THRU THU NIGHT. 00Z GEFS HAS
TRENDED NORTH WITH LOW PROBS OF 0.05 QPF ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. THIS
SUPPORTS THE FARTHER NORTH SOLUTION OF THE OPERATIONAL 00Z GFS. IN
ADDITION A MODEL BLEND OF ALL DATASETS BRINGS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO
THE SOUTH COAST WITH A MODEL BLEND OF QPF BRINGING MEASURABLE RAIN
INTO NORTHERN CT-RI TO SOUTHERN SUBURBS OF BOSTON.


FRI/SAT AND SUN...

SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS WESTWARD FROM OVER NEW ENGLAND TO ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS YIELDS A WARMER WNW LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW INTO NEW
ENGLAND. THIS SHOULD YIELD TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S FRI AND THEN
PUSHING 80 OR SO NEXT WEEKEND. THE RECORDS FOR THE DAY INCLUDE

     9/27...

BOS...86...1998
BDL...88...1998
PVD...86...1998
ORH...85...1933

GIVEN THE TIME RANGE HERE ALONG WITH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WILL
FOLLOW A MODEL BLEND. HUMIDITY SHOULD BE IN THE COMFORTABLE RANGE
GIVEN WNW LOW LEVEL LAND TRAJECTORY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. N/NW WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON...
DIMINISHING TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS TUE AND TUE NIGHT WITH LOW PROB
OF A SEABREEZE TUE AFTERNOON.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LOW PROB OF A SEABREEZE TUE
AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR EACH DAY. EXCEPTION WILL BE A LOW RISK OF
MVFR IN SHOWERS SOUTH COAST INCLUDING THE ISLANDS FROM WED NIGHT
THRU THU NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SLOWLY BUILDING SWELL MAY APPROACH 10 FT WELL OFFSHORE...BUT
INCREASE TO 5-8FT CLOSER TO THE THE SRN NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH
THE DAY...AS W-NW WINDS REACH ABOUT 25 KT. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED AND WILL CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT...DROPPING CLOSE TO SHORE THIS EVENING AS WINDS
DIMINISH. HOWEVER...THE SWELL MAY TAKE UNTIL EARLY TUE MORNING TO
COMPLETELY DIMINISH ON THE S AND SE WATERS.

TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
AFTER THE LEFTOVER SWELL SUBSIDES...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF QUIET
BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRES BEGINS TO CREST OVER THE
WATERS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

LIGHT WINDS THRU THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRES REMAINS OVER OR NEAR THE
REGION. DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY TOO. POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WILL BE
RAIN SHOWERS WED NIGHT THRU THU NIGHT AS MOISTURE ADVECTS UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ020>024.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     236-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...KJC/NOCERA
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 221745
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
145 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRIER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS OVERSPREADS THE REGION TODAY BEHIND
A DEPARTING COLD FRONT THIS MORNING...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS. THIS AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE REGION MUCH
OF THE WEEK YIELDING MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS. BY WEEKS END TEMPERATURES
BEGIN TO WARM WITH POSSIBLE RECORD WARMTH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
145 PM UPDATE...
DEWPOINTS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF SNE AS GUSTY
W/NW WINDS ADVECT MUCH DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. SCT DIURNAL CU
HAS DEVELOPED BUT GREATER COVERAGE OF CLOUDS NORTH AND WEST OF
SNE. FORECAST ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT OFFSHORE WITH GUSTY WEST WIND USHERING IN MUCH DRIER
AIRMASS AS DEWPOINTS FALL THROUGH THE 50S AND INTO THE 40S.
DIURNAL CU EXPECTED WITH GREATEST COVERAGE IN THE INTERIOR. STRONG
LOW LEVEL CAA...ESPECIALLY WEST WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 60S BUT
REACHING INTO THE 70S IN THE COASTAL PLAIN WHERE STRONGER CAA IS
DELAYED UNTIL AFTER 18Z. GOOD MIXING WILL YIELD WIND GUSTS TO
25-30 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS OVER THE ELEVATED TERRAIN.
CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK SO NO MAJOR CHANGES.

A BUILDING OFFSHORE SWELL TODAY...WILL YIELD HIGH SURF
PARTICULARLY AT SOUTH COASTAL BEACHES TODAY. THEREFORE...WILL
CONTINUE HIGH SURF ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
COOL DRY AIRMASS SETTLES IN PLACE AS NOSE OF STRONG 1035 HPA HIGH
PRES MOVES IN FROM THE W. IN SPITE OF THIS MORE AUTUMN-LIKE
AIRMASS...MINS MAY NOT BE ABLE TO REALIZE THEIR FULL POTENTIAL.
THE COMBINATION OF LINGERING DIURNAL CU EARLY...AND SFC PRES
GRADIENT TAKING SOME TIME TO FULLY SLACKEN MAY LIMIT RADIATIONAL
COOLING. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S-MID 40S ARE LIKELY...WITH MINS
CLOSER TO 50 IN THE URBAN SPOTS. THE COLDEST SPOTS ARE LIKELY IN
NW MA AND SW NH. IT/S VERY CLOSE TO FROST THRESHOLDS...BUT WITH
THE MITIGATING FACTORS MENTIONED...NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ISSUE
FROST ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED THROUGH
THE DAY.

TUE...
HIGH PRES BEGINS TO CREST ACROSS THE REGION ON TUE.
THEREFORE...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED. H85 TEMPS HOVER
AROUND +6C...BUT MAY NOT BE FULLY REALIZED UNDER STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THEREFORE...KEEPING HIGHS GENERALLY A DEGREE
OR TWO BELOW NORMAL. MAINLY THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* THE 1ST WEEK OF AUTUMN WILL FEATURE MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS
  FOLLOWED BY POTENTIAL NEAR RECORD WARMTH NEXT WEEKEND

* HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD

     SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL EVALUATION...

FAIRLY STRONG TELECONNECTION FOR RIDGING HERE IN THE EAST THIS
COMING WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND AS +PNA TRENDS TOWARD NEUTRAL ALONG
WITH NAO AND AO TRENDING OR REMAINING POSITIVE. DURING THIS TIME THE
LARGE SCALE FLOW EVOLVES INTO A WEST COAST TROUGH WITH A DOWNSTREAM
RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES NORTHWARD TOWARD JAMES BAY.  THIS IS A
WARM AND DRY SETUP FOR NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER GIVEN THE CHAOTIC NATURE
OF THE ATMOSPHERE THERE ARE ALWAYS WILDCARDS AT THIS TIME RANGE AND
THIS CASE IS NO EXCEPTION.

THE FIRST WILDCARD WILL BE THE DOWNSTREAM MEAN TROUGH OVER THE
MARITIMES. WILL HAVE TO WATCH IF ANY NORTHERN STREAM IMPULSES
CLIMBING OVER THE GREAT LAKES RIDGE AND THEN INTO THE MARITIMES
DRAGS ANY BACKDOOR FRONTS INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WOULD YIELD
COOLER TEMPS ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN MA. THE OTHER WILDCARD WILL BE
MOISTURE AND JET ENERGY THAT BREAKS OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES
FROM THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD TODAY.
SOME OF THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE HAS THIS MOISTURE/INVERTED TROUGH
CREEPING NORTHWARD DURING THIS WEEK AND GETTING CLOSE TO NEW ENGLAND
WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT BEFORE THEN GETTING SHUNTED OUT TO SEA FRI.

OTHERWISE DESPITE AUTUMN ARRIVING LATER TODAY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
DELIVERS ONE OR MORE DAYS OF ANOMALOUS WARMTH TO THE REGION NEXT
WEEKEND. THE 12Z ECENS AND 00Z GEFS HAVE 850 TEMPS WARMING TO +14C
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS TIME.

     DAILY SENSIBLE WEATHER DETAILS...

TUESDAY NIGHT THRU THU...

DRY AIRMASS OVER NEW ENGLAND ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AS SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA WILL YIELD IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. THIS WILL RESULT IN CHILLY NIGHTS WITH MOST LOCATIONS
DIPPING INTO THE 40S OUTSIDE THE URBAN AREAS AND AWAY FROM THE
COASTLINE. HOWEVER AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL RECOVER NICELY TO 65-70.
GIVEN PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE HIGH WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH LOCAL
SEABREEZES DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS WILL STRAY AWAY FROM A MODEL BLEND AND FOLLOW THE
COOLER MOS GUIDANCE AND EVEN SHAVE OFF A FEW MORE DEGS IN THE
TYPICALLY COOLER LOCATIONS /I.E. NORWOOD-TAUNTON-MARTHAS VINEYARD-
ETC/. AS MENTIONED ABOVE WILL HAVE TO WATCH MOISTURE AND INVERTED
TROUGH CREEPING UP THE COAST WED NIGHT THRU THU NIGHT. 00Z GEFS HAS
TRENDED NORTH WITH LOW PROBS OF 0.05 QPF ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. THIS
SUPPORTS THE FARTHER NORTH SOLUTION OF THE OPERATIONAL 00Z GFS. IN
ADDITION A MODEL BLEND OF ALL DATASETS BRINGS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO
THE SOUTH COAST WITH A MODEL BLEND OF QPF BRINGING MEASURABLE RAIN
INTO NORTHERN CT-RI TO SOUTHERN SUBURBS OF BOSTON.


FRI/SAT AND SUN...

SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS WESTWARD FROM OVER NEW ENGLAND TO ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS YIELDS A WARMER WNW LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW INTO NEW
ENGLAND. THIS SHOULD YIELD TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S FRI AND THEN
PUSHING 80 OR SO NEXT WEEKEND. THE RECORDS FOR THE DAY INCLUDE

     9/27...

BOS...86...1998
BDL...88...1998
PVD...86...1998
ORH...85...1933

GIVEN THE TIME RANGE HERE ALONG WITH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WILL
FOLLOW A MODEL BLEND. HUMIDITY SHOULD BE IN THE COMFORTABLE RANGE
GIVEN WNW LOW LEVEL LAND TRAJECTORY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. N/NW WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON...
DIMINISHING TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS TUE AND TUE NIGHT WITH LOW PROB
OF A SEABREEZE TUE AFTERNOON.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LOW PROB OF A SEABREEZE TUE
AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR EACH DAY. EXCEPTION WILL BE A LOW RISK OF
MVFR IN SHOWERS SOUTH COAST INCLUDING THE ISLANDS FROM WED NIGHT
THRU THU NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SLOWLY BUILDING SWELL MAY APPROACH 10 FT WELL OFFSHORE...BUT
INCREASE TO 5-8FT CLOSER TO THE THE SRN NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH
THE DAY...AS W-NW WINDS REACH ABOUT 25 KT. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED AND WILL CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT...DROPPING CLOSE TO SHORE THIS EVENING AS WINDS
DIMINISH. HOWEVER...THE SWELL MAY TAKE UNTIL EARLY TUE MORNING TO
COMPLETELY DIMINISH ON THE S AND SE WATERS.

TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
AFTER THE LEFTOVER SWELL SUBSIDES...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF QUIET
BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRES BEGINS TO CREST OVER THE
WATERS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

LIGHT WINDS THRU THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRES REMAINS OVER OR NEAR THE
REGION. DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY TOO. POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WILL BE
RAIN SHOWERS WED NIGHT THRU THU NIGHT AS MOISTURE ADVECTS UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ020>024.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     236-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...KJC/NOCERA
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 221745
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
145 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRIER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS OVERSPREADS THE REGION TODAY BEHIND
A DEPARTING COLD FRONT THIS MORNING...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS. THIS AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE REGION MUCH
OF THE WEEK YIELDING MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS. BY WEEKS END TEMPERATURES
BEGIN TO WARM WITH POSSIBLE RECORD WARMTH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
145 PM UPDATE...
DEWPOINTS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF SNE AS GUSTY
W/NW WINDS ADVECT MUCH DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. SCT DIURNAL CU
HAS DEVELOPED BUT GREATER COVERAGE OF CLOUDS NORTH AND WEST OF
SNE. FORECAST ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT OFFSHORE WITH GUSTY WEST WIND USHERING IN MUCH DRIER
AIRMASS AS DEWPOINTS FALL THROUGH THE 50S AND INTO THE 40S.
DIURNAL CU EXPECTED WITH GREATEST COVERAGE IN THE INTERIOR. STRONG
LOW LEVEL CAA...ESPECIALLY WEST WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 60S BUT
REACHING INTO THE 70S IN THE COASTAL PLAIN WHERE STRONGER CAA IS
DELAYED UNTIL AFTER 18Z. GOOD MIXING WILL YIELD WIND GUSTS TO
25-30 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS OVER THE ELEVATED TERRAIN.
CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK SO NO MAJOR CHANGES.

A BUILDING OFFSHORE SWELL TODAY...WILL YIELD HIGH SURF
PARTICULARLY AT SOUTH COASTAL BEACHES TODAY. THEREFORE...WILL
CONTINUE HIGH SURF ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
COOL DRY AIRMASS SETTLES IN PLACE AS NOSE OF STRONG 1035 HPA HIGH
PRES MOVES IN FROM THE W. IN SPITE OF THIS MORE AUTUMN-LIKE
AIRMASS...MINS MAY NOT BE ABLE TO REALIZE THEIR FULL POTENTIAL.
THE COMBINATION OF LINGERING DIURNAL CU EARLY...AND SFC PRES
GRADIENT TAKING SOME TIME TO FULLY SLACKEN MAY LIMIT RADIATIONAL
COOLING. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S-MID 40S ARE LIKELY...WITH MINS
CLOSER TO 50 IN THE URBAN SPOTS. THE COLDEST SPOTS ARE LIKELY IN
NW MA AND SW NH. IT/S VERY CLOSE TO FROST THRESHOLDS...BUT WITH
THE MITIGATING FACTORS MENTIONED...NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ISSUE
FROST ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED THROUGH
THE DAY.

TUE...
HIGH PRES BEGINS TO CREST ACROSS THE REGION ON TUE.
THEREFORE...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED. H85 TEMPS HOVER
AROUND +6C...BUT MAY NOT BE FULLY REALIZED UNDER STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THEREFORE...KEEPING HIGHS GENERALLY A DEGREE
OR TWO BELOW NORMAL. MAINLY THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* THE 1ST WEEK OF AUTUMN WILL FEATURE MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS
  FOLLOWED BY POTENTIAL NEAR RECORD WARMTH NEXT WEEKEND

* HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD

     SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL EVALUATION...

FAIRLY STRONG TELECONNECTION FOR RIDGING HERE IN THE EAST THIS
COMING WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND AS +PNA TRENDS TOWARD NEUTRAL ALONG
WITH NAO AND AO TRENDING OR REMAINING POSITIVE. DURING THIS TIME THE
LARGE SCALE FLOW EVOLVES INTO A WEST COAST TROUGH WITH A DOWNSTREAM
RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES NORTHWARD TOWARD JAMES BAY.  THIS IS A
WARM AND DRY SETUP FOR NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER GIVEN THE CHAOTIC NATURE
OF THE ATMOSPHERE THERE ARE ALWAYS WILDCARDS AT THIS TIME RANGE AND
THIS CASE IS NO EXCEPTION.

THE FIRST WILDCARD WILL BE THE DOWNSTREAM MEAN TROUGH OVER THE
MARITIMES. WILL HAVE TO WATCH IF ANY NORTHERN STREAM IMPULSES
CLIMBING OVER THE GREAT LAKES RIDGE AND THEN INTO THE MARITIMES
DRAGS ANY BACKDOOR FRONTS INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WOULD YIELD
COOLER TEMPS ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN MA. THE OTHER WILDCARD WILL BE
MOISTURE AND JET ENERGY THAT BREAKS OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES
FROM THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD TODAY.
SOME OF THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE HAS THIS MOISTURE/INVERTED TROUGH
CREEPING NORTHWARD DURING THIS WEEK AND GETTING CLOSE TO NEW ENGLAND
WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT BEFORE THEN GETTING SHUNTED OUT TO SEA FRI.

OTHERWISE DESPITE AUTUMN ARRIVING LATER TODAY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
DELIVERS ONE OR MORE DAYS OF ANOMALOUS WARMTH TO THE REGION NEXT
WEEKEND. THE 12Z ECENS AND 00Z GEFS HAVE 850 TEMPS WARMING TO +14C
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS TIME.

     DAILY SENSIBLE WEATHER DETAILS...

TUESDAY NIGHT THRU THU...

DRY AIRMASS OVER NEW ENGLAND ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AS SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA WILL YIELD IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. THIS WILL RESULT IN CHILLY NIGHTS WITH MOST LOCATIONS
DIPPING INTO THE 40S OUTSIDE THE URBAN AREAS AND AWAY FROM THE
COASTLINE. HOWEVER AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL RECOVER NICELY TO 65-70.
GIVEN PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE HIGH WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH LOCAL
SEABREEZES DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS WILL STRAY AWAY FROM A MODEL BLEND AND FOLLOW THE
COOLER MOS GUIDANCE AND EVEN SHAVE OFF A FEW MORE DEGS IN THE
TYPICALLY COOLER LOCATIONS /I.E. NORWOOD-TAUNTON-MARTHAS VINEYARD-
ETC/. AS MENTIONED ABOVE WILL HAVE TO WATCH MOISTURE AND INVERTED
TROUGH CREEPING UP THE COAST WED NIGHT THRU THU NIGHT. 00Z GEFS HAS
TRENDED NORTH WITH LOW PROBS OF 0.05 QPF ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. THIS
SUPPORTS THE FARTHER NORTH SOLUTION OF THE OPERATIONAL 00Z GFS. IN
ADDITION A MODEL BLEND OF ALL DATASETS BRINGS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO
THE SOUTH COAST WITH A MODEL BLEND OF QPF BRINGING MEASURABLE RAIN
INTO NORTHERN CT-RI TO SOUTHERN SUBURBS OF BOSTON.


FRI/SAT AND SUN...

SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS WESTWARD FROM OVER NEW ENGLAND TO ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS YIELDS A WARMER WNW LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW INTO NEW
ENGLAND. THIS SHOULD YIELD TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S FRI AND THEN
PUSHING 80 OR SO NEXT WEEKEND. THE RECORDS FOR THE DAY INCLUDE

     9/27...

BOS...86...1998
BDL...88...1998
PVD...86...1998
ORH...85...1933

GIVEN THE TIME RANGE HERE ALONG WITH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WILL
FOLLOW A MODEL BLEND. HUMIDITY SHOULD BE IN THE COMFORTABLE RANGE
GIVEN WNW LOW LEVEL LAND TRAJECTORY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. N/NW WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON...
DIMINISHING TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS TUE AND TUE NIGHT WITH LOW PROB
OF A SEABREEZE TUE AFTERNOON.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LOW PROB OF A SEABREEZE TUE
AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR EACH DAY. EXCEPTION WILL BE A LOW RISK OF
MVFR IN SHOWERS SOUTH COAST INCLUDING THE ISLANDS FROM WED NIGHT
THRU THU NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SLOWLY BUILDING SWELL MAY APPROACH 10 FT WELL OFFSHORE...BUT
INCREASE TO 5-8FT CLOSER TO THE THE SRN NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH
THE DAY...AS W-NW WINDS REACH ABOUT 25 KT. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED AND WILL CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT...DROPPING CLOSE TO SHORE THIS EVENING AS WINDS
DIMINISH. HOWEVER...THE SWELL MAY TAKE UNTIL EARLY TUE MORNING TO
COMPLETELY DIMINISH ON THE S AND SE WATERS.

TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
AFTER THE LEFTOVER SWELL SUBSIDES...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF QUIET
BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRES BEGINS TO CREST OVER THE
WATERS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

LIGHT WINDS THRU THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRES REMAINS OVER OR NEAR THE
REGION. DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY TOO. POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WILL BE
RAIN SHOWERS WED NIGHT THRU THU NIGHT AS MOISTURE ADVECTS UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ020>024.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     236-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...KJC/NOCERA
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KALY 221737
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
137 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL AND BRISK CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN IN
CONTROL FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR
MIDWEEK WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 136 PM EDT...PLENTY OF CLOUDS CONTINUE OVER WESTERN PARTS OF
THE AREA THIS AFTN WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE
REGION. WITH STRONG W-NW FLOW...THE CLOUDS ARE DOWNSLOPING OFF THE
HIGH TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS...CATSKILLS AND GREENS...ALLOWING
FOR PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...AS WELL AS THE
CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY OF SE VT AND MUCH OF NORTHWESTERN CT.

WITH LITTLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...IT SHOULD BE FAIRLY DRY.
CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A LIGHT RAIN SHOWER OR SPRINKLE FOR THE
WESTERN ADK/WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY THIS AFTN WHERE SOME LAKE
MOISTURE MAY AID IN PRODUCING PRECIP...BUT RADAR RETURNS ARE
SHOWING MAINLY JUST CLOUDS AT THIS TIME.

WINDS WILL BE QUITE BRISK FROM THE W TO NW...WITH SOME GUSTS OF
25-35 MPH POSSIBLE...ESP IN AREAS WITHIN AND ADJACENT TO THE
MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING...TEMPS TODAY ARE
ALREADY CLOSE TO THEIR HIGHS...AND WILL LIKELY HOLD STEADY THROUGH
THE AFTN BEFORE STARTING TO FALL BY LATE TODAY. TEMPS WILL MAINLY
BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S...WITH A FEW UPPER 60S ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF SOME WIND...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF AT
LEAST PATCHY CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT THE FROST POTENTIAL FOR
TONIGHT...WITH MOST MIN TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S.

TUESDAY...A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING SE ON THE
WEST SIDE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY ALLOW FOR A
PERIOD OF CLOUDS DURING TUE AFTERNOON...ESP FOR AREAS N AND W OF
ALBANY. A FEW SPRINKLES WILL EVEN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH
65-70 IN VALLEYS AND 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

TUE NT-WED NT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS GRADUALLY MODERATING. EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO
FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S BOTH NIGHTS...WITH DAYTIME MAX
TEMPS WED REACHING THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THERE COULD BE SOME
VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING LATE EACH NIGHT...AND WITH VERY LIGHT
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS...COULD TAKE SOME TIME TO BURN OFF WED AM IN
THE DEEPEST VALLEYS...WITH SOME LOW STRATUS POSSIBLY LINGERING IN
SOME AREAS UNTIL MID TO LATE MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
QUIET AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THERE ARE
SOME HINTS OF A COASTAL SYSTEM THURSDAY...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
SOME CLOUDS PERHAPS APPROACHING THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT...BUT NOT MUCH. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER RIDGING
GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES ALSO SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS THURSDAY
SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. HIGHS FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...AROUND 70 IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
TEMPERATURES WARMING ONE OR TWO MORE DEGREES SATURDAY AND AGAIN
SUNDAY...WHEN HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 80...COOLER IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLDER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS
SPREADING INTO EASTERN NY AND CEILINGS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE MVFR
RANGE JUST WEST OF THE TAF SITES. THERE COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES
THIS MORNING AS WELL...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE VCSH ANYWHERE.
SO... THESE LOWER CEILINGS SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS OUR REGION...FOR
INTERVALS OF MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH ABOUT 15Z. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY LIFT TO ABOVE 3000 FEET LATE THIS MORNING AND THEN
GRADUALLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE.  BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
ONLY SCATTERED CLOUDS...WITH SKC DURING THE EVENING AND NIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO AROUND 15KT BY MID
MORNING. WINDS SHOULD BE GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...GUSTING TO
AROUND 25 KT AT TIMES...THEN DIMINISHING SLOWLY THROUGH TOMORROW
EVENING. WINDS SHOULD JUST BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY MIDNIGHT AND
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25-35 MPH TODAY...

STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE REGION TODAY...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL PRODUCE A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION...LEADING TO GUSTY WINDS.

RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 45-55 PERCENT RANGE IN VALLEYS...AND
55-70 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE RECOVERING TO 90-100 PERCENT WITH SOME DEW
FORMATION POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK. RH VALUES SHOULD DROP TO 40-50
PERCENT IN VALLEYS...AND 50-70 PERCENT ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
FOR TUE AFTERNOON.

W TO NW WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15-25 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE AT TIMES TODAY. W/NW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO
5-15 MPH LATE TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVED ACROSS THE REGION LAST EVENING...WITH ONLY
SCATTERED...LIGHT RAINFALL AMTS OF GENERALLY UNDER ONE TENTH OF AN
INCH...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS OCCURRED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY. THESE AMTS WILL HAVE
NEGLIGIBLE EFFECTS ON AREA RIVERS/STREAMS.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/KL/GJM
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL/11
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM








000
FXUS61 KALY 221737
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
137 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL AND BRISK CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN IN
CONTROL FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR
MIDWEEK WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 136 PM EDT...PLENTY OF CLOUDS CONTINUE OVER WESTERN PARTS OF
THE AREA THIS AFTN WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE
REGION. WITH STRONG W-NW FLOW...THE CLOUDS ARE DOWNSLOPING OFF THE
HIGH TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS...CATSKILLS AND GREENS...ALLOWING
FOR PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...AS WELL AS THE
CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY OF SE VT AND MUCH OF NORTHWESTERN CT.

WITH LITTLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...IT SHOULD BE FAIRLY DRY.
CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A LIGHT RAIN SHOWER OR SPRINKLE FOR THE
WESTERN ADK/WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY THIS AFTN WHERE SOME LAKE
MOISTURE MAY AID IN PRODUCING PRECIP...BUT RADAR RETURNS ARE
SHOWING MAINLY JUST CLOUDS AT THIS TIME.

WINDS WILL BE QUITE BRISK FROM THE W TO NW...WITH SOME GUSTS OF
25-35 MPH POSSIBLE...ESP IN AREAS WITHIN AND ADJACENT TO THE
MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING...TEMPS TODAY ARE
ALREADY CLOSE TO THEIR HIGHS...AND WILL LIKELY HOLD STEADY THROUGH
THE AFTN BEFORE STARTING TO FALL BY LATE TODAY. TEMPS WILL MAINLY
BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S...WITH A FEW UPPER 60S ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF SOME WIND...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF AT
LEAST PATCHY CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT THE FROST POTENTIAL FOR
TONIGHT...WITH MOST MIN TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S.

TUESDAY...A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING SE ON THE
WEST SIDE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY ALLOW FOR A
PERIOD OF CLOUDS DURING TUE AFTERNOON...ESP FOR AREAS N AND W OF
ALBANY. A FEW SPRINKLES WILL EVEN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH
65-70 IN VALLEYS AND 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

TUE NT-WED NT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS GRADUALLY MODERATING. EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO
FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S BOTH NIGHTS...WITH DAYTIME MAX
TEMPS WED REACHING THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THERE COULD BE SOME
VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING LATE EACH NIGHT...AND WITH VERY LIGHT
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS...COULD TAKE SOME TIME TO BURN OFF WED AM IN
THE DEEPEST VALLEYS...WITH SOME LOW STRATUS POSSIBLY LINGERING IN
SOME AREAS UNTIL MID TO LATE MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
QUIET AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THERE ARE
SOME HINTS OF A COASTAL SYSTEM THURSDAY...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
SOME CLOUDS PERHAPS APPROACHING THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT...BUT NOT MUCH. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER RIDGING
GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES ALSO SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS THURSDAY
SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. HIGHS FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...AROUND 70 IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
TEMPERATURES WARMING ONE OR TWO MORE DEGREES SATURDAY AND AGAIN
SUNDAY...WHEN HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 80...COOLER IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLDER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS
SPREADING INTO EASTERN NY AND CEILINGS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE MVFR
RANGE JUST WEST OF THE TAF SITES. THERE COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES
THIS MORNING AS WELL...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE VCSH ANYWHERE.
SO... THESE LOWER CEILINGS SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS OUR REGION...FOR
INTERVALS OF MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH ABOUT 15Z. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY LIFT TO ABOVE 3000 FEET LATE THIS MORNING AND THEN
GRADUALLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE.  BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
ONLY SCATTERED CLOUDS...WITH SKC DURING THE EVENING AND NIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO AROUND 15KT BY MID
MORNING. WINDS SHOULD BE GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...GUSTING TO
AROUND 25 KT AT TIMES...THEN DIMINISHING SLOWLY THROUGH TOMORROW
EVENING. WINDS SHOULD JUST BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY MIDNIGHT AND
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25-35 MPH TODAY...

STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE REGION TODAY...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL PRODUCE A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION...LEADING TO GUSTY WINDS.

RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 45-55 PERCENT RANGE IN VALLEYS...AND
55-70 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE RECOVERING TO 90-100 PERCENT WITH SOME DEW
FORMATION POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK. RH VALUES SHOULD DROP TO 40-50
PERCENT IN VALLEYS...AND 50-70 PERCENT ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
FOR TUE AFTERNOON.

W TO NW WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15-25 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE AT TIMES TODAY. W/NW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO
5-15 MPH LATE TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVED ACROSS THE REGION LAST EVENING...WITH ONLY
SCATTERED...LIGHT RAINFALL AMTS OF GENERALLY UNDER ONE TENTH OF AN
INCH...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS OCCURRED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY. THESE AMTS WILL HAVE
NEGLIGIBLE EFFECTS ON AREA RIVERS/STREAMS.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/KL/GJM
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL/11
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM







000
FXUS61 KOKX 221652
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1252 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT...REMAINING
IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS WITH THIS UPDATE...MAINLY WITH CLOUD COVER.
THE CLOUD BUILDUP WE HAVE SEEN IS FROM A CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AS A
TROUGH AXIS/SHORTWAVE ALOFT APPROACHES AND MOVES INTO THE REGION.
LEFT HIGH TEMP FORECAST UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS UPDATE. HIGHS
AT OR A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL.

COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LEND TO GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...UP TO
AROUND 30 MPH AT TIMES.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY AT ATLANTIC OCEAN
FACING BEACHES MAINLY DUE TO A SWELL FROM AN OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...LOW TEMPS WILL
BE ABLE TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S FOR INTERIOR LOCATIONS AND
RANGE TO THE LOWER 50S NEAR THE NYC METRO...QUITE BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

EVEN WITH THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA ON
TUESDAY...LITTLE MOISTURE IS IN PLACE TO PROVIDE FOR MANY CLOUDS.
EXPECTING A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND LIGHT NW-N FLOW.

MAV/MET/GMOS BLEND AGAIN WORKED WELL FOR TEMPS. HIGHS ON TUESDAY
WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...EVENTUALLY LIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. THIS HIGH WILL PROVIDE THE REGION WITH FAIR AND DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS STARTED TO HINT AT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG
ISLAND THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW...THINKING THE HIGH
WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
LOW SOUTH OF THE REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF BACK OVER THE REGION FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK...WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH
THURSDAY...THEN RISE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO PREVIOUS TAF PACKAGE BASED ON LATEST SFC
OBS. WNW WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO 15-20 KT WITH 20-30 KT
GUSTS. WINDS GENERALLY WILL WAVER BETWEEN 290 AND 320 MAG DURING THE
DAY. WINDS AND GUSTS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT
NW AFTER MIDNIGHT.

VFR TODAY WITH SCT 3.5-4.5 KFT CU THIS AFTERNOON...LOCALLY BKN AT
WESTERN TERMINALS. CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT.

     ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AVERAGING RIGHT
AROUND 310 MAG BEFORE BACKING TO LEFT OF 310 MAG THIS AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF TROUGH APPROACH.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AVERAGING RIGHT
AROUND 310 MAG BEFORE VEERING TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG BY EARLY
AFTERNOON.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AVERAGING RIGHT
AROUND 310 MAG BEFORE BACKING TO LEFT OF 310 MAG THIS AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF TROUGH APPROACH.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 15Z TUE THROUGH FRI...
.TUE...VFR WITH LGT WINDS.
.WED...MVFR CIGS AROUND 3000FT POSSIBLE. ENE WINDS 5-15KT.
.THU AND FRI...VFR. MODERATE NE/N FLOW POSSIBLE. LOW PROB OF MVFR
CIGS IN LIGHT RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN TERMINALS...DEPENDING ON HOW
FAR NORTH COASTAL LOW TRACKS.

&&

.MARINE...
OCEAN SEAS EXPECTED TO RUN 6-9 FT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT THIS
AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON THE
OTHER WATERS BUT GUST FREQUENCY AND ITS COVERAGE ARE NOT
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO GO WITH A SCA IN ANY OF THESE OTHER ZONES.

SEAS DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH WINDS AND WAVES FALLING BELOW
SCA CRITERIA BY TUESDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE
POSSIBILITY OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING WELL
SOUTH OF OUR WATERS AND PASSING SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY TO THE INTENSITY AND TRACK OF THE LOW.
GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION...WHICH SHOULD BUILD SEAS TO
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. HAVE UNDERCUT WAVEWATCH BY A LITTLE DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY OF THIS EVENT.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/LN
NEAR TERM...BC/JC/LN
SHORT TERM...LN
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...MPS/NV
MARINE...BC/LN
HYDROLOGY...LN






000
FXUS61 KOKX 221652
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1252 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT...REMAINING
IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS WITH THIS UPDATE...MAINLY WITH CLOUD COVER.
THE CLOUD BUILDUP WE HAVE SEEN IS FROM A CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AS A
TROUGH AXIS/SHORTWAVE ALOFT APPROACHES AND MOVES INTO THE REGION.
LEFT HIGH TEMP FORECAST UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS UPDATE. HIGHS
AT OR A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL.

COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LEND TO GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...UP TO
AROUND 30 MPH AT TIMES.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY AT ATLANTIC OCEAN
FACING BEACHES MAINLY DUE TO A SWELL FROM AN OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...LOW TEMPS WILL
BE ABLE TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S FOR INTERIOR LOCATIONS AND
RANGE TO THE LOWER 50S NEAR THE NYC METRO...QUITE BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

EVEN WITH THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA ON
TUESDAY...LITTLE MOISTURE IS IN PLACE TO PROVIDE FOR MANY CLOUDS.
EXPECTING A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND LIGHT NW-N FLOW.

MAV/MET/GMOS BLEND AGAIN WORKED WELL FOR TEMPS. HIGHS ON TUESDAY
WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...EVENTUALLY LIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. THIS HIGH WILL PROVIDE THE REGION WITH FAIR AND DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS STARTED TO HINT AT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG
ISLAND THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW...THINKING THE HIGH
WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
LOW SOUTH OF THE REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF BACK OVER THE REGION FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK...WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH
THURSDAY...THEN RISE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO PREVIOUS TAF PACKAGE BASED ON LATEST SFC
OBS. WNW WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO 15-20 KT WITH 20-30 KT
GUSTS. WINDS GENERALLY WILL WAVER BETWEEN 290 AND 320 MAG DURING THE
DAY. WINDS AND GUSTS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT
NW AFTER MIDNIGHT.

VFR TODAY WITH SCT 3.5-4.5 KFT CU THIS AFTERNOON...LOCALLY BKN AT
WESTERN TERMINALS. CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT.

     ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AVERAGING RIGHT
AROUND 310 MAG BEFORE BACKING TO LEFT OF 310 MAG THIS AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF TROUGH APPROACH.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AVERAGING RIGHT
AROUND 310 MAG BEFORE VEERING TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG BY EARLY
AFTERNOON.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AVERAGING RIGHT
AROUND 310 MAG BEFORE BACKING TO LEFT OF 310 MAG THIS AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF TROUGH APPROACH.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 15Z TUE THROUGH FRI...
.TUE...VFR WITH LGT WINDS.
.WED...MVFR CIGS AROUND 3000FT POSSIBLE. ENE WINDS 5-15KT.
.THU AND FRI...VFR. MODERATE NE/N FLOW POSSIBLE. LOW PROB OF MVFR
CIGS IN LIGHT RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN TERMINALS...DEPENDING ON HOW
FAR NORTH COASTAL LOW TRACKS.

&&

.MARINE...
OCEAN SEAS EXPECTED TO RUN 6-9 FT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT THIS
AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON THE
OTHER WATERS BUT GUST FREQUENCY AND ITS COVERAGE ARE NOT
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO GO WITH A SCA IN ANY OF THESE OTHER ZONES.

SEAS DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH WINDS AND WAVES FALLING BELOW
SCA CRITERIA BY TUESDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE
POSSIBILITY OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING WELL
SOUTH OF OUR WATERS AND PASSING SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY TO THE INTENSITY AND TRACK OF THE LOW.
GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION...WHICH SHOULD BUILD SEAS TO
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. HAVE UNDERCUT WAVEWATCH BY A LITTLE DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY OF THIS EVENT.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/LN
NEAR TERM...BC/JC/LN
SHORT TERM...LN
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...MPS/NV
MARINE...BC/LN
HYDROLOGY...LN







000
FXUS61 KOKX 221440
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1040 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT...REMAINING
IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS WITH THIS UPDATE. BUMPED UP HIGH TEMP
FORECAST AN AVERAGE OF A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA.
COMPRESSIONAL HEATING FROM A GOOD DOWNSLOPING LOW LEVEL FLOW
APPEARS TO BE HELPING TEMPS RISE SO FAR...BUT THIS WILL BE
TEMPERED SOMEWHAT BY AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE CLOUD BUILDUP IS FROM A CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AS A
TROUGH AXIS/SHORTWAVE ALOFT APPROACHES AND MOVES INTO THE REGION.
HAVE THEREFORE ALSO INCREASED CLOUD COVER FORECAST FOR MOST SPOTS.

COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LEND TO GUSTY WINDS TODAY...UP TO AROUND
30 MPH AT TIMES.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY AT ATLANTIC OCEAN
FACING BEACHES MAINLY DUE TO A SWELL FROM AN OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...LOW TEMPS WILL
BE ABLE TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S FOR INTERIOR LOCATIONS AND
RANGE TO THE LOWER 50S NEAR THE NYC METRO...QUITE BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

EVEN WITH THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA ON
TUESDAY...LITTLE MOISTURE IS IN PLACE TO PROVIDE FOR MANY CLOUDS.
EXPECTING A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND LIGHT NW-N FLOW.

MAV/MET/GMOS BLEND AGAIN WORKED WELL FOR TEMPS. HIGHS ON TUESDAY
WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...EVENTUALLY LIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. THIS HIGH WILL PROVIDE THE REGION WITH FAIR AND DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS STARTED TO HINT AT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG
ISLAND THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW...THINKING THE HIGH
WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
LOW SOUTH OF THE REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF BACK OVER THE REGION FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK...WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH
THURSDAY...THEN RISE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO PREVIOUS TAF PACKAGE BASED ON LATEST SFC
OBS. WNW WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO 15-20 KT WITH 20-30 KT
GUSTS. WINDS GENERALLY WILL WAVER BETWEEN 290 AND 320 MAG DURING THE
DAY. WINDS AND GUSTS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT
NW AFTER MIDNIGHT.

VFR TODAY WITH SCT 3.5-4.5 KFT CU THIS AFTERNOON...LOCALLY BKN AT
WESTERN TERMINALS. CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT.

     ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AVERAGING RIGHT
AROUND 310 MAG BEFORE BACKING TO LEFT OF 310 MAG THIS AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF TROUGH APPROACH.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AVERAGING RIGHT
AROUND 310 MAG BEFORE VEERING TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG BY EARLY
AFTERNOON.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AVERAGING RIGHT
AROUND 310 MAG BEFORE BACKING TO LEFT OF 310 MAG THIS AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF TROUGH APPROACH.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 15Z TUE THROUGH FRI...
.TUE...VFR WITH LGT WINDS.
.WED...MVFR CIGS AROUND 3000FT POSSIBLE. ENE WINDS 5-15KT.
.THU AND FRI...VFR. MODERATE NE/N FLOW POSSIBLE. LOW PROB OF MVFR
CIGS IN LIGHT RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN TERMINALS...DEPENDING ON HOW
FAR NORTH COASTAL LOW TRACKS.

&&

.MARINE...
OCEAN SEAS EXPECTED TO RUN 6-9 FT INTO THE AFTERNOON AS AN
OFFSHORE LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA. WIND
AND GUSTS TO 25KT ARE ALSO EXPECTED ON THE OCEAN WATERS. NO
CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXISTING SCA IN PLACE. OCCASIONAL GUSTS
TO 25 KT ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON THE OTHER WATERS BUT CONFIDENCE TOO
LOW TO ISSUE A SCA.

SEAS DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH WINDS AND WAVES FALLING BELOW
SCA CRITERIA BY TUESDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE
POSSIBILITY OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING WELL
SOUTH OF OUR WATERS AND PASSING SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY TO THE INTENSITY AND TRACK OF THE LOW.
GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION...WHICH SHOULD BUILD SEAS TO
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. HAVE UNDERCUT WAVEWATCH BY A LITTLE DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY OF THIS EVENT.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/LN
NEAR TERM...BC/JC/LN
SHORT TERM...LN
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...MPS/NV
MARINE...BC/LN
HYDROLOGY...LN







000
FXUS61 KALY 221426
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1026 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER AND BRISK CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR TODAY IN THE
WAKE OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR MIDWEEK WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1025 AM EDT...CLOUDS ARE CONTINUING TO BUILD ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FA...ALTHOUGH SOME DOWNSLOPING IS OCCURRING IN THE
HUDSON VALLEY WHERE SKIES REMAIN GENERALLY CLEAR. SOME SPRINKLES
ARE NOTED IN RADAR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY AND CATSKILLS.

OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/COLD
POOL...AND ANOTHER SFC TROUGH PIVOT EAST TOWARD THE REGION...WE
EXPECT THE COVERAGE OF CLOUDS TO CONTINUE EXPANDING. IN
ADDITION...SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES POSSIBLY DEVELOPING FURTHER S AND E INTO THE
MOHAWK AND UPPER HUDSON VALLEYS...AND SOUTHERN VT SHORTLY AFTER
DAYBREAK. SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES SHOULD BECOME MORE CONFINED TO
HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN VT FOR THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH PASSAGE.

WINDS WILL BE QUITE BRISK FROM THE W TO NW...WITH SOME GUSTS OF
25-35 MPH POSSIBLE...ESP IN AREAS WITHIN AND ADJACENT TO THE
MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

TEMPS WILL BE QUITE TRICKY...AS STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
WOULD SUPPORT TEMPS TO HOLD STEADY...OR SLOWLY FALL FROM THIS
MORNING/S LEVELS. HOWEVER...WILL INDICATE A SMALL RISE IN TEMPS
DURING THE LATE MORNING/MIDDAY HOURS...BEFORE SLOWLY FALLING THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE INDICATED A GENERAL BLEND OF THE MAV/MET
MOS...WITH MAXES GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 60
IN MOST VALLEYS...EXCEPT FOR MID/UPPER 60S ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS IN NW CT...WHERE MORE SUNSHINE...AND
DOWNSLOPING OFF THE CATSKILLS SHOULD PROMOTE ADDITIONAL WARMING.
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...MOST MAX TEMPS WILL ONLY REACH THE
50S...WITH PERHAPS SOME 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF SOME WIND...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF AT
LEAST PATCHY CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT THE FROST POTENTIAL FOR
TONIGHT...WITH MOST MIN TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S.

TUESDAY...A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING SE ON THE
WEST SIDE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY ALLOW FOR A
PERIOD OF CLOUDS DURING TUE AFTERNOON...ESP FOR AREAS N AND W OF
ALBANY. A FEW SPRINKLES WILL EVEN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH
65-70 IN VALLEYS AND 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

TUE NT-WED NT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS GRADUALLY MODERATING. EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO
FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S BOTH NIGHTS...WITH DAYTIME MAX
TEMPS WED REACHING THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THERE COULD BE SOME
VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING LATE EACH NIGHT...AND WITH VERY LIGHT
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS...COULD TAKE SOME TIME TO BURN OFF WED AM IN
THE DEEPEST VALLEYS...WITH SOME LOW STRATUS POSSIBLY LINGERING IN
SOME AREAS UNTIL MID TO LATE MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
QUIET AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THERE ARE
SOME HINTS OF A COASTAL SYSTEM THURSDAY...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
SOME CLOUDS PERHAPS APPROACHING THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT...BUT NOT MUCH. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER RIDGING
GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES ALSO SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS THURSDAY
SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. HIGHS FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...AROUND 70 IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
TEMPERATURES WARMING ONE OR TWO MORE DEGREES SATURDAY AND AGAIN
SUNDAY...WHEN HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 80...COOLER IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLDER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS
SPREADING INTO EASTERN NY AND CEILINGS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE MVFR
RANGE JUST WEST OF THE TAF SITES. THERE COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES
THIS MORNING AS WELL...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE VCSH ANYWHERE.
SO... THESE LOWER CEILINGS SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS OUR REGION...FOR
INTERVALS OF MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH ABOUT 15Z. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY LIFT TO ABOVE 3000 FEET LATE THIS MORNING AND THEN
GRADUALLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE.  BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
ONLY SCATTERED CLOUDS...WITH SKC DURING THE EVENING AND NIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO AROUND 15KT BY MID
MORNING. WINDS SHOULD BE GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...GUSTING TO
AROUND 25 KT AT TIMES...THEN DIMINISHING SLOWLY THROUGH TOMORROW
EVENING. WINDS SHOULD JUST BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY MIDNIGHT AND
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25-35 MPH TODAY...

STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE REGION TODAY...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL PRODUCE A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION...LEADING TO GUSTY WINDS.

RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 45-55 PERCENT RANGE IN VALLEYS...AND
55-70 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE RECOVERING TO 90-100 PERCENT WITH SOME DEW
FORMATION POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK. RH VALUES SHOULD DROP TO 40-50
PERCENT IN VALLEYS...AND 50-70 PERCENT ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
FOR TUE AFTERNOON.

W TO NW WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15-25 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE AT TIMES TODAY. W/NW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO
5-15 MPH LATE TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVED ACROSS THE REGION LAST EVENING...WITH ONLY
SCATTERED...LIGHT RAINFALL AMTS OF GENERALLY UNDER ONE TENTH OF AN
INCH...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS OCCURRED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY. THESE AMTS WILL HAVE
NEGLIGIBLE EFFECTS ON AREA RIVERS/STREAMS.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/GJM
NEAR TERM...KL/11
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM







000
FXUS61 KALY 221426
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1026 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER AND BRISK CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR TODAY IN THE
WAKE OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR MIDWEEK WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1025 AM EDT...CLOUDS ARE CONTINUING TO BUILD ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FA...ALTHOUGH SOME DOWNSLOPING IS OCCURRING IN THE
HUDSON VALLEY WHERE SKIES REMAIN GENERALLY CLEAR. SOME SPRINKLES
ARE NOTED IN RADAR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY AND CATSKILLS.

OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/COLD
POOL...AND ANOTHER SFC TROUGH PIVOT EAST TOWARD THE REGION...WE
EXPECT THE COVERAGE OF CLOUDS TO CONTINUE EXPANDING. IN
ADDITION...SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES POSSIBLY DEVELOPING FURTHER S AND E INTO THE
MOHAWK AND UPPER HUDSON VALLEYS...AND SOUTHERN VT SHORTLY AFTER
DAYBREAK. SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES SHOULD BECOME MORE CONFINED TO
HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN VT FOR THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH PASSAGE.

WINDS WILL BE QUITE BRISK FROM THE W TO NW...WITH SOME GUSTS OF
25-35 MPH POSSIBLE...ESP IN AREAS WITHIN AND ADJACENT TO THE
MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

TEMPS WILL BE QUITE TRICKY...AS STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
WOULD SUPPORT TEMPS TO HOLD STEADY...OR SLOWLY FALL FROM THIS
MORNING/S LEVELS. HOWEVER...WILL INDICATE A SMALL RISE IN TEMPS
DURING THE LATE MORNING/MIDDAY HOURS...BEFORE SLOWLY FALLING THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE INDICATED A GENERAL BLEND OF THE MAV/MET
MOS...WITH MAXES GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 60
IN MOST VALLEYS...EXCEPT FOR MID/UPPER 60S ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS IN NW CT...WHERE MORE SUNSHINE...AND
DOWNSLOPING OFF THE CATSKILLS SHOULD PROMOTE ADDITIONAL WARMING.
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...MOST MAX TEMPS WILL ONLY REACH THE
50S...WITH PERHAPS SOME 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF SOME WIND...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF AT
LEAST PATCHY CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT THE FROST POTENTIAL FOR
TONIGHT...WITH MOST MIN TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S.

TUESDAY...A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING SE ON THE
WEST SIDE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY ALLOW FOR A
PERIOD OF CLOUDS DURING TUE AFTERNOON...ESP FOR AREAS N AND W OF
ALBANY. A FEW SPRINKLES WILL EVEN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH
65-70 IN VALLEYS AND 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

TUE NT-WED NT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS GRADUALLY MODERATING. EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO
FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S BOTH NIGHTS...WITH DAYTIME MAX
TEMPS WED REACHING THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THERE COULD BE SOME
VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING LATE EACH NIGHT...AND WITH VERY LIGHT
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS...COULD TAKE SOME TIME TO BURN OFF WED AM IN
THE DEEPEST VALLEYS...WITH SOME LOW STRATUS POSSIBLY LINGERING IN
SOME AREAS UNTIL MID TO LATE MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
QUIET AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THERE ARE
SOME HINTS OF A COASTAL SYSTEM THURSDAY...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
SOME CLOUDS PERHAPS APPROACHING THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT...BUT NOT MUCH. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER RIDGING
GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES ALSO SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS THURSDAY
SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. HIGHS FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...AROUND 70 IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
TEMPERATURES WARMING ONE OR TWO MORE DEGREES SATURDAY AND AGAIN
SUNDAY...WHEN HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 80...COOLER IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLDER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS
SPREADING INTO EASTERN NY AND CEILINGS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE MVFR
RANGE JUST WEST OF THE TAF SITES. THERE COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES
THIS MORNING AS WELL...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE VCSH ANYWHERE.
SO... THESE LOWER CEILINGS SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS OUR REGION...FOR
INTERVALS OF MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH ABOUT 15Z. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY LIFT TO ABOVE 3000 FEET LATE THIS MORNING AND THEN
GRADUALLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE.  BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
ONLY SCATTERED CLOUDS...WITH SKC DURING THE EVENING AND NIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO AROUND 15KT BY MID
MORNING. WINDS SHOULD BE GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...GUSTING TO
AROUND 25 KT AT TIMES...THEN DIMINISHING SLOWLY THROUGH TOMORROW
EVENING. WINDS SHOULD JUST BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY MIDNIGHT AND
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25-35 MPH TODAY...

STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE REGION TODAY...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL PRODUCE A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION...LEADING TO GUSTY WINDS.

RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 45-55 PERCENT RANGE IN VALLEYS...AND
55-70 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE RECOVERING TO 90-100 PERCENT WITH SOME DEW
FORMATION POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK. RH VALUES SHOULD DROP TO 40-50
PERCENT IN VALLEYS...AND 50-70 PERCENT ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
FOR TUE AFTERNOON.

W TO NW WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15-25 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE AT TIMES TODAY. W/NW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO
5-15 MPH LATE TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVED ACROSS THE REGION LAST EVENING...WITH ONLY
SCATTERED...LIGHT RAINFALL AMTS OF GENERALLY UNDER ONE TENTH OF AN
INCH...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS OCCURRED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY. THESE AMTS WILL HAVE
NEGLIGIBLE EFFECTS ON AREA RIVERS/STREAMS.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/GJM
NEAR TERM...KL/11
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM







000
FXUS61 KALY 221426
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1026 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER AND BRISK CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR TODAY IN THE
WAKE OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR MIDWEEK WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1025 AM EDT...CLOUDS ARE CONTINUING TO BUILD ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FA...ALTHOUGH SOME DOWNSLOPING IS OCCURRING IN THE
HUDSON VALLEY WHERE SKIES REMAIN GENERALLY CLEAR. SOME SPRINKLES
ARE NOTED IN RADAR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY AND CATSKILLS.

OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/COLD
POOL...AND ANOTHER SFC TROUGH PIVOT EAST TOWARD THE REGION...WE
EXPECT THE COVERAGE OF CLOUDS TO CONTINUE EXPANDING. IN
ADDITION...SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES POSSIBLY DEVELOPING FURTHER S AND E INTO THE
MOHAWK AND UPPER HUDSON VALLEYS...AND SOUTHERN VT SHORTLY AFTER
DAYBREAK. SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES SHOULD BECOME MORE CONFINED TO
HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN VT FOR THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH PASSAGE.

WINDS WILL BE QUITE BRISK FROM THE W TO NW...WITH SOME GUSTS OF
25-35 MPH POSSIBLE...ESP IN AREAS WITHIN AND ADJACENT TO THE
MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

TEMPS WILL BE QUITE TRICKY...AS STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
WOULD SUPPORT TEMPS TO HOLD STEADY...OR SLOWLY FALL FROM THIS
MORNING/S LEVELS. HOWEVER...WILL INDICATE A SMALL RISE IN TEMPS
DURING THE LATE MORNING/MIDDAY HOURS...BEFORE SLOWLY FALLING THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE INDICATED A GENERAL BLEND OF THE MAV/MET
MOS...WITH MAXES GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 60
IN MOST VALLEYS...EXCEPT FOR MID/UPPER 60S ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS IN NW CT...WHERE MORE SUNSHINE...AND
DOWNSLOPING OFF THE CATSKILLS SHOULD PROMOTE ADDITIONAL WARMING.
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...MOST MAX TEMPS WILL ONLY REACH THE
50S...WITH PERHAPS SOME 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF SOME WIND...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF AT
LEAST PATCHY CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT THE FROST POTENTIAL FOR
TONIGHT...WITH MOST MIN TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S.

TUESDAY...A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING SE ON THE
WEST SIDE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY ALLOW FOR A
PERIOD OF CLOUDS DURING TUE AFTERNOON...ESP FOR AREAS N AND W OF
ALBANY. A FEW SPRINKLES WILL EVEN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH
65-70 IN VALLEYS AND 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

TUE NT-WED NT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS GRADUALLY MODERATING. EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO
FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S BOTH NIGHTS...WITH DAYTIME MAX
TEMPS WED REACHING THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THERE COULD BE SOME
VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING LATE EACH NIGHT...AND WITH VERY LIGHT
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS...COULD TAKE SOME TIME TO BURN OFF WED AM IN
THE DEEPEST VALLEYS...WITH SOME LOW STRATUS POSSIBLY LINGERING IN
SOME AREAS UNTIL MID TO LATE MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
QUIET AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THERE ARE
SOME HINTS OF A COASTAL SYSTEM THURSDAY...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
SOME CLOUDS PERHAPS APPROACHING THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT...BUT NOT MUCH. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER RIDGING
GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES ALSO SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS THURSDAY
SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. HIGHS FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...AROUND 70 IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
TEMPERATURES WARMING ONE OR TWO MORE DEGREES SATURDAY AND AGAIN
SUNDAY...WHEN HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 80...COOLER IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLDER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS
SPREADING INTO EASTERN NY AND CEILINGS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE MVFR
RANGE JUST WEST OF THE TAF SITES. THERE COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES
THIS MORNING AS WELL...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE VCSH ANYWHERE.
SO... THESE LOWER CEILINGS SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS OUR REGION...FOR
INTERVALS OF MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH ABOUT 15Z. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY LIFT TO ABOVE 3000 FEET LATE THIS MORNING AND THEN
GRADUALLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE.  BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
ONLY SCATTERED CLOUDS...WITH SKC DURING THE EVENING AND NIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO AROUND 15KT BY MID
MORNING. WINDS SHOULD BE GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...GUSTING TO
AROUND 25 KT AT TIMES...THEN DIMINISHING SLOWLY THROUGH TOMORROW
EVENING. WINDS SHOULD JUST BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY MIDNIGHT AND
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25-35 MPH TODAY...

STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE REGION TODAY...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL PRODUCE A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION...LEADING TO GUSTY WINDS.

RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 45-55 PERCENT RANGE IN VALLEYS...AND
55-70 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE RECOVERING TO 90-100 PERCENT WITH SOME DEW
FORMATION POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK. RH VALUES SHOULD DROP TO 40-50
PERCENT IN VALLEYS...AND 50-70 PERCENT ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
FOR TUE AFTERNOON.

W TO NW WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15-25 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE AT TIMES TODAY. W/NW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO
5-15 MPH LATE TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVED ACROSS THE REGION LAST EVENING...WITH ONLY
SCATTERED...LIGHT RAINFALL AMTS OF GENERALLY UNDER ONE TENTH OF AN
INCH...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS OCCURRED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY. THESE AMTS WILL HAVE
NEGLIGIBLE EFFECTS ON AREA RIVERS/STREAMS.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/GJM
NEAR TERM...KL/11
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM







000
FXUS61 KALY 221426
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1026 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER AND BRISK CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR TODAY IN THE
WAKE OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR MIDWEEK WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1025 AM EDT...CLOUDS ARE CONTINUING TO BUILD ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FA...ALTHOUGH SOME DOWNSLOPING IS OCCURRING IN THE
HUDSON VALLEY WHERE SKIES REMAIN GENERALLY CLEAR. SOME SPRINKLES
ARE NOTED IN RADAR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY AND CATSKILLS.

OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/COLD
POOL...AND ANOTHER SFC TROUGH PIVOT EAST TOWARD THE REGION...WE
EXPECT THE COVERAGE OF CLOUDS TO CONTINUE EXPANDING. IN
ADDITION...SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES POSSIBLY DEVELOPING FURTHER S AND E INTO THE
MOHAWK AND UPPER HUDSON VALLEYS...AND SOUTHERN VT SHORTLY AFTER
DAYBREAK. SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES SHOULD BECOME MORE CONFINED TO
HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN VT FOR THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH PASSAGE.

WINDS WILL BE QUITE BRISK FROM THE W TO NW...WITH SOME GUSTS OF
25-35 MPH POSSIBLE...ESP IN AREAS WITHIN AND ADJACENT TO THE
MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

TEMPS WILL BE QUITE TRICKY...AS STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
WOULD SUPPORT TEMPS TO HOLD STEADY...OR SLOWLY FALL FROM THIS
MORNING/S LEVELS. HOWEVER...WILL INDICATE A SMALL RISE IN TEMPS
DURING THE LATE MORNING/MIDDAY HOURS...BEFORE SLOWLY FALLING THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE INDICATED A GENERAL BLEND OF THE MAV/MET
MOS...WITH MAXES GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 60
IN MOST VALLEYS...EXCEPT FOR MID/UPPER 60S ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS IN NW CT...WHERE MORE SUNSHINE...AND
DOWNSLOPING OFF THE CATSKILLS SHOULD PROMOTE ADDITIONAL WARMING.
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...MOST MAX TEMPS WILL ONLY REACH THE
50S...WITH PERHAPS SOME 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF SOME WIND...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF AT
LEAST PATCHY CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT THE FROST POTENTIAL FOR
TONIGHT...WITH MOST MIN TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S.

TUESDAY...A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING SE ON THE
WEST SIDE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY ALLOW FOR A
PERIOD OF CLOUDS DURING TUE AFTERNOON...ESP FOR AREAS N AND W OF
ALBANY. A FEW SPRINKLES WILL EVEN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH
65-70 IN VALLEYS AND 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

TUE NT-WED NT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS GRADUALLY MODERATING. EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO
FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S BOTH NIGHTS...WITH DAYTIME MAX
TEMPS WED REACHING THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THERE COULD BE SOME
VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING LATE EACH NIGHT...AND WITH VERY LIGHT
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS...COULD TAKE SOME TIME TO BURN OFF WED AM IN
THE DEEPEST VALLEYS...WITH SOME LOW STRATUS POSSIBLY LINGERING IN
SOME AREAS UNTIL MID TO LATE MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
QUIET AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THERE ARE
SOME HINTS OF A COASTAL SYSTEM THURSDAY...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
SOME CLOUDS PERHAPS APPROACHING THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT...BUT NOT MUCH. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER RIDGING
GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES ALSO SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS THURSDAY
SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. HIGHS FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...AROUND 70 IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
TEMPERATURES WARMING ONE OR TWO MORE DEGREES SATURDAY AND AGAIN
SUNDAY...WHEN HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 80...COOLER IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLDER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS
SPREADING INTO EASTERN NY AND CEILINGS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE MVFR
RANGE JUST WEST OF THE TAF SITES. THERE COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES
THIS MORNING AS WELL...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE VCSH ANYWHERE.
SO... THESE LOWER CEILINGS SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS OUR REGION...FOR
INTERVALS OF MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH ABOUT 15Z. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY LIFT TO ABOVE 3000 FEET LATE THIS MORNING AND THEN
GRADUALLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE.  BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
ONLY SCATTERED CLOUDS...WITH SKC DURING THE EVENING AND NIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO AROUND 15KT BY MID
MORNING. WINDS SHOULD BE GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...GUSTING TO
AROUND 25 KT AT TIMES...THEN DIMINISHING SLOWLY THROUGH TOMORROW
EVENING. WINDS SHOULD JUST BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY MIDNIGHT AND
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25-35 MPH TODAY...

STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE REGION TODAY...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL PRODUCE A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION...LEADING TO GUSTY WINDS.

RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 45-55 PERCENT RANGE IN VALLEYS...AND
55-70 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE RECOVERING TO 90-100 PERCENT WITH SOME DEW
FORMATION POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK. RH VALUES SHOULD DROP TO 40-50
PERCENT IN VALLEYS...AND 50-70 PERCENT ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
FOR TUE AFTERNOON.

W TO NW WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15-25 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE AT TIMES TODAY. W/NW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO
5-15 MPH LATE TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVED ACROSS THE REGION LAST EVENING...WITH ONLY
SCATTERED...LIGHT RAINFALL AMTS OF GENERALLY UNDER ONE TENTH OF AN
INCH...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS OCCURRED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY. THESE AMTS WILL HAVE
NEGLIGIBLE EFFECTS ON AREA RIVERS/STREAMS.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/GJM
NEAR TERM...KL/11
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM







000
FXUS61 KBOX 221351
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
951 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRIER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS OVERSPREADS THE REGION TODAY BEHIND
A DEPARTING COLD FRONT THIS MORNING...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS. THIS AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE REGION MUCH
OF THE WEEK YIELDING MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS. BY WEEKS END TEMPERATURES
BEGIN TO WARM WITH POSSIBLE RECORD WARMTH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
945 AM UPDATE...
COLD FRONT OFFSHORE WITH GUSTY WEST WIND USHERING IN MUCH DRIER
AIRMASS AS DEWPOINTS FALL THROUGH THE 50S AND INTO THE 40S.
DIURNAL CU EXPECTED WITH GREATEST COVERAGE IN THE INTERIOR. STRONG
LOW LEVEL CAA...ESPECIALLY WEST WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 60S BUT
REACHING INTO THE 70S IN THE COASTAL PLAIN WHERE STRONGER CAA IS
DELAYED UNTIL AFTER 18Z. GOOD MIXING WILL YIELD WIND GUSTS TO
25-30 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS OVER THE ELEVATED TERRAIN.
CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK SO NO MAJOR CHANGES.

A BUILDING OFFSHORE SWELL TODAY...WILL YIELD HIGH SURF
PARTICULARLY AT SOUTH COASTAL BEACHES TODAY. THEREFORE...WILL
CONTINUE HIGH SURF ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
COOL DRY AIRMASS SETTLES IN PLACE AS NOSE OF STRONG 1035 HPA HIGH
PRES MOVES IN FROM THE W. IN SPITE OF THIS MORE AUTUMN-LIKE
AIRMASS...MINS MAY NOT BE ABLE TO REALIZE THEIR FULL POTENTIAL.
THE COMBINATION OF LINGERING DIURNAL CU EARLY...AND SFC PRES
GRADIENT TAKING SOME TIME TO FULLY SLACKEN MAY LIMIT RADIATIONAL
COOLING. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S-MID 40S ARE LIKELY...WITH MINS
CLOSER TO 50 IN THE URBAN SPOTS. THE COLDEST SPOTS ARE LIKELY IN
NW MA AND SW NH. IT/S VERY CLOSE TO FROST THRESHOLDS...BUT WITH
THE MITIGATING FACTORS MENTIONED...NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ISSUE
FROST ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED THROUGH
THE DAY.

TUE...
HIGH PRES BEGINS TO CREST ACROSS THE REGION ON TUE.
THEREFORE...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED. H85 TEMPS HOVER
AROUND +6C...BUT MAY NOT BE FULLY REALIZED UNDER STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THEREFORE...KEEPING HIGHS GENERALLY A DEGREE
OR TWO BELOW NORMAL. MAINLY THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* THE 1ST WEEK OF AUTUMN WILL FEATURE MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS
  FOLLOWED BY POTENTIAL NEAR RECORD WARMTH NEXT WEEKEND

* HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD

     SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL EVALUATION...

FAIRLY STRONG TELECONNECTION FOR RIDGING HERE IN THE EAST THIS
COMING WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND AS +PNA TRENDS TOWARD NEUTRAL ALONG
WITH NAO AND AO TRENDING OR REMAINING POSITIVE. DURING THIS TIME THE
LARGE SCALE FLOW EVOLVES INTO A WEST COAST TROUGH WITH A DOWNSTREAM
RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES NORTHWARD TOWARD JAMES BAY.  THIS IS A
WARM AND DRY SETUP FOR NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER GIVEN THE CHAOTIC NATURE
OF THE ATMOSPHERE THERE ARE ALWAYS WILDCARDS AT THIS TIME RANGE AND
THIS CASE IS NO EXCEPTION.

THE FIRST WILDCARD WILL BE THE DOWNSTREAM MEAN TROUGH OVER THE
MARITIMES. WILL HAVE TO WATCH IF ANY NORTHERN STREAM IMPULSES
CLIMBING OVER THE GREAT LAKES RIDGE AND THEN INTO THE MARITIMES
DRAGS ANY BACKDOOR FRONTS INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WOULD YIELD
COOLER TEMPS ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN MA. THE OTHER WILDCARD WILL BE
MOISTURE AND JET ENERGY THAT BREAKS OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES
FROM THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD TODAY.
SOME OF THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE HAS THIS MOISTURE/INVERTED TROUGH
CREEPING NORTHWARD DURING THIS WEEK AND GETTING CLOSE TO NEW ENGLAND
WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT BEFORE THEN GETTING SHUNTED OUT TO SEA FRI.

OTHERWISE DESPITE AUTUMN ARRIVING LATER TODAY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
DELIVERS ONE OR MORE DAYS OF ANOMALOUS WARMTH TO THE REGION NEXT
WEEKEND. THE 12Z ECENS AND 00Z GEFS HAVE 850 TEMPS WARMING TO +14C
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS TIME.

     DAILY SENSIBLE WEATHER DETAILS...

TUESDAY NIGHT THRU THU...

DRY AIRMASS OVER NEW ENGLAND ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AS SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA WILL YIELD IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. THIS WILL RESULT IN CHILLY NIGHTS WITH MOST LOCATIONS
DIPPING INTO THE 40S OUTSIDE THE URBAN AREAS AND AWAY FROM THE
COASTLINE. HOWEVER AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL RECOVER NICELY TO 65-70.
GIVEN PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE HIGH WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH LOCAL
SEABREEZES DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS WILL STRAY AWAY FROM A MODEL BLEND AND FOLLOW THE
COOLER MOS GUIDANCE AND EVEN SHAVE OFF A FEW MORE DEGS IN THE
TYPICALLY COOLER LOCATIONS /I.E. NORWOOD-TAUNTON-MARTHAS VINEYARD-
ETC/. AS MENTIONED ABOVE WILL HAVE TO WATCH MOISTURE AND INVERTED
TROUGH CREEPING UP THE COAST WED NIGHT THRU THU NIGHT. 00Z GEFS HAS
TRENDED NORTH WITH LOW PROBS OF 0.05 QPF ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. THIS
SUPPORTS THE FARTHER NORTH SOLUTION OF THE OPERATIONAL 00Z GFS. IN
ADDITION A MODEL BLEND OF ALL DATASETS BRINGS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO
THE SOUTH COAST WITH A MODEL BLEND OF QPF BRINGING MEASURABLE RAIN
INTO NORTHERN CT-RI TO SOUTHERN SUBURBS OF BOSTON.


FRI/SAT AND SUN...

SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS WESTWARD FROM OVER NEW ENGLAND TO ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS YIELDS A WARMER WNW LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW INTO NEW
ENGLAND. THIS SHOULD YIELD TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S FRI AND THEN
PUSHING 80 OR SO NEXT WEEKEND. THE RECORDS FOR THE DAY INCLUDE

     9/27...

BOS...86...1998
BDL...88...1998
PVD...86...1998
ORH...85...1933

GIVEN THE TIME RANGE HERE ALONG WITH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WILL
FOLLOW A MODEL BLEND. HUMIDITY SHOULD BE IN THE COMFORTABLE RANGE
GIVEN WNW LOW LEVEL LAND TRAJECTORY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

7 AM UPDATE...

COLD FRONT NOW OFFSHORE WITH WEST WINDS AT ALL TERMINALS AND VFR
CONDITIONS. WEST WINDS GUSTS UP TO 25 KT TODAY ALONG WITH VFR
CONDITIONS. 06Z TAFS CAPTURE THESE DETAILS SO NO MAJOR CHANGES
WITH UPCOMING 12Z TAFS. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

===================================================================

TODAY INTO TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR...ALTHOUGH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MAY LINGER AT ACK THROUGH MID
MORNING. WINDS MAINLY WNW TODAY...GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KT AT
TIMES THEN DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MAINLY VFR FROM NOW ON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MAINLY VFR FROM NOW ON.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR EACH DAY. EXCEPTION WILL BE A LOW RISK OF
MVFR IN SHOWERS SOUTH COAST INCLUDING THE ISLANDS FROM WED NIGHT
THRU THU NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SLOWLY BUILDING SWELL MAY APPROACH 10 FT WELL OFFSHORE...BUT
INCREASE TO 5-8FT CLOSER TO THE THE SRN NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH
THE DAY...AS W-NW WINDS REACH ABOUT 25 KT. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED AND WILL CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT...DROPPING CLOSE TO SHORE THIS EVENING AS WINDS
DIMINISH. HOWEVER...THE SWELL MAY TAKE UNTIL EARLY TUE MORNING TO
COMPLETELY DIMINISH ON THE S AND SE WATERS.

TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
AFTER THE LEFTOVER SWELL SUBSIDES...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF QUIET
BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRES BEGINS TO CREST OVER THE
WATERS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

LIGHT WINDS THRU THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRES REMAINS OVER OR NEAR THE
REGION. DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY TOO. POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WILL BE
RAIN SHOWERS WED NIGHT THRU THU NIGHT AS MOISTURE ADVECTS UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ020>024.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 221351
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
951 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRIER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS OVERSPREADS THE REGION TODAY BEHIND
A DEPARTING COLD FRONT THIS MORNING...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS. THIS AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE REGION MUCH
OF THE WEEK YIELDING MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS. BY WEEKS END TEMPERATURES
BEGIN TO WARM WITH POSSIBLE RECORD WARMTH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
945 AM UPDATE...
COLD FRONT OFFSHORE WITH GUSTY WEST WIND USHERING IN MUCH DRIER
AIRMASS AS DEWPOINTS FALL THROUGH THE 50S AND INTO THE 40S.
DIURNAL CU EXPECTED WITH GREATEST COVERAGE IN THE INTERIOR. STRONG
LOW LEVEL CAA...ESPECIALLY WEST WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 60S BUT
REACHING INTO THE 70S IN THE COASTAL PLAIN WHERE STRONGER CAA IS
DELAYED UNTIL AFTER 18Z. GOOD MIXING WILL YIELD WIND GUSTS TO
25-30 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS OVER THE ELEVATED TERRAIN.
CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK SO NO MAJOR CHANGES.

A BUILDING OFFSHORE SWELL TODAY...WILL YIELD HIGH SURF
PARTICULARLY AT SOUTH COASTAL BEACHES TODAY. THEREFORE...WILL
CONTINUE HIGH SURF ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
COOL DRY AIRMASS SETTLES IN PLACE AS NOSE OF STRONG 1035 HPA HIGH
PRES MOVES IN FROM THE W. IN SPITE OF THIS MORE AUTUMN-LIKE
AIRMASS...MINS MAY NOT BE ABLE TO REALIZE THEIR FULL POTENTIAL.
THE COMBINATION OF LINGERING DIURNAL CU EARLY...AND SFC PRES
GRADIENT TAKING SOME TIME TO FULLY SLACKEN MAY LIMIT RADIATIONAL
COOLING. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S-MID 40S ARE LIKELY...WITH MINS
CLOSER TO 50 IN THE URBAN SPOTS. THE COLDEST SPOTS ARE LIKELY IN
NW MA AND SW NH. IT/S VERY CLOSE TO FROST THRESHOLDS...BUT WITH
THE MITIGATING FACTORS MENTIONED...NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ISSUE
FROST ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED THROUGH
THE DAY.

TUE...
HIGH PRES BEGINS TO CREST ACROSS THE REGION ON TUE.
THEREFORE...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED. H85 TEMPS HOVER
AROUND +6C...BUT MAY NOT BE FULLY REALIZED UNDER STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THEREFORE...KEEPING HIGHS GENERALLY A DEGREE
OR TWO BELOW NORMAL. MAINLY THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* THE 1ST WEEK OF AUTUMN WILL FEATURE MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS
  FOLLOWED BY POTENTIAL NEAR RECORD WARMTH NEXT WEEKEND

* HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD

     SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL EVALUATION...

FAIRLY STRONG TELECONNECTION FOR RIDGING HERE IN THE EAST THIS
COMING WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND AS +PNA TRENDS TOWARD NEUTRAL ALONG
WITH NAO AND AO TRENDING OR REMAINING POSITIVE. DURING THIS TIME THE
LARGE SCALE FLOW EVOLVES INTO A WEST COAST TROUGH WITH A DOWNSTREAM
RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES NORTHWARD TOWARD JAMES BAY.  THIS IS A
WARM AND DRY SETUP FOR NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER GIVEN THE CHAOTIC NATURE
OF THE ATMOSPHERE THERE ARE ALWAYS WILDCARDS AT THIS TIME RANGE AND
THIS CASE IS NO EXCEPTION.

THE FIRST WILDCARD WILL BE THE DOWNSTREAM MEAN TROUGH OVER THE
MARITIMES. WILL HAVE TO WATCH IF ANY NORTHERN STREAM IMPULSES
CLIMBING OVER THE GREAT LAKES RIDGE AND THEN INTO THE MARITIMES
DRAGS ANY BACKDOOR FRONTS INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WOULD YIELD
COOLER TEMPS ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN MA. THE OTHER WILDCARD WILL BE
MOISTURE AND JET ENERGY THAT BREAKS OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES
FROM THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD TODAY.
SOME OF THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE HAS THIS MOISTURE/INVERTED TROUGH
CREEPING NORTHWARD DURING THIS WEEK AND GETTING CLOSE TO NEW ENGLAND
WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT BEFORE THEN GETTING SHUNTED OUT TO SEA FRI.

OTHERWISE DESPITE AUTUMN ARRIVING LATER TODAY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
DELIVERS ONE OR MORE DAYS OF ANOMALOUS WARMTH TO THE REGION NEXT
WEEKEND. THE 12Z ECENS AND 00Z GEFS HAVE 850 TEMPS WARMING TO +14C
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS TIME.

     DAILY SENSIBLE WEATHER DETAILS...

TUESDAY NIGHT THRU THU...

DRY AIRMASS OVER NEW ENGLAND ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AS SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA WILL YIELD IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. THIS WILL RESULT IN CHILLY NIGHTS WITH MOST LOCATIONS
DIPPING INTO THE 40S OUTSIDE THE URBAN AREAS AND AWAY FROM THE
COASTLINE. HOWEVER AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL RECOVER NICELY TO 65-70.
GIVEN PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE HIGH WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH LOCAL
SEABREEZES DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS WILL STRAY AWAY FROM A MODEL BLEND AND FOLLOW THE
COOLER MOS GUIDANCE AND EVEN SHAVE OFF A FEW MORE DEGS IN THE
TYPICALLY COOLER LOCATIONS /I.E. NORWOOD-TAUNTON-MARTHAS VINEYARD-
ETC/. AS MENTIONED ABOVE WILL HAVE TO WATCH MOISTURE AND INVERTED
TROUGH CREEPING UP THE COAST WED NIGHT THRU THU NIGHT. 00Z GEFS HAS
TRENDED NORTH WITH LOW PROBS OF 0.05 QPF ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. THIS
SUPPORTS THE FARTHER NORTH SOLUTION OF THE OPERATIONAL 00Z GFS. IN
ADDITION A MODEL BLEND OF ALL DATASETS BRINGS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO
THE SOUTH COAST WITH A MODEL BLEND OF QPF BRINGING MEASURABLE RAIN
INTO NORTHERN CT-RI TO SOUTHERN SUBURBS OF BOSTON.


FRI/SAT AND SUN...

SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS WESTWARD FROM OVER NEW ENGLAND TO ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS YIELDS A WARMER WNW LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW INTO NEW
ENGLAND. THIS SHOULD YIELD TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S FRI AND THEN
PUSHING 80 OR SO NEXT WEEKEND. THE RECORDS FOR THE DAY INCLUDE

     9/27...

BOS...86...1998
BDL...88...1998
PVD...86...1998
ORH...85...1933

GIVEN THE TIME RANGE HERE ALONG WITH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WILL
FOLLOW A MODEL BLEND. HUMIDITY SHOULD BE IN THE COMFORTABLE RANGE
GIVEN WNW LOW LEVEL LAND TRAJECTORY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

7 AM UPDATE...

COLD FRONT NOW OFFSHORE WITH WEST WINDS AT ALL TERMINALS AND VFR
CONDITIONS. WEST WINDS GUSTS UP TO 25 KT TODAY ALONG WITH VFR
CONDITIONS. 06Z TAFS CAPTURE THESE DETAILS SO NO MAJOR CHANGES
WITH UPCOMING 12Z TAFS. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

===================================================================

TODAY INTO TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR...ALTHOUGH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MAY LINGER AT ACK THROUGH MID
MORNING. WINDS MAINLY WNW TODAY...GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KT AT
TIMES THEN DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MAINLY VFR FROM NOW ON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MAINLY VFR FROM NOW ON.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR EACH DAY. EXCEPTION WILL BE A LOW RISK OF
MVFR IN SHOWERS SOUTH COAST INCLUDING THE ISLANDS FROM WED NIGHT
THRU THU NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SLOWLY BUILDING SWELL MAY APPROACH 10 FT WELL OFFSHORE...BUT
INCREASE TO 5-8FT CLOSER TO THE THE SRN NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH
THE DAY...AS W-NW WINDS REACH ABOUT 25 KT. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED AND WILL CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT...DROPPING CLOSE TO SHORE THIS EVENING AS WINDS
DIMINISH. HOWEVER...THE SWELL MAY TAKE UNTIL EARLY TUE MORNING TO
COMPLETELY DIMINISH ON THE S AND SE WATERS.

TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
AFTER THE LEFTOVER SWELL SUBSIDES...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF QUIET
BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRES BEGINS TO CREST OVER THE
WATERS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

LIGHT WINDS THRU THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRES REMAINS OVER OR NEAR THE
REGION. DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY TOO. POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WILL BE
RAIN SHOWERS WED NIGHT THRU THU NIGHT AS MOISTURE ADVECTS UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ020>024.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 221351
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
951 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRIER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS OVERSPREADS THE REGION TODAY BEHIND
A DEPARTING COLD FRONT THIS MORNING...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS. THIS AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE REGION MUCH
OF THE WEEK YIELDING MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS. BY WEEKS END TEMPERATURES
BEGIN TO WARM WITH POSSIBLE RECORD WARMTH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
945 AM UPDATE...
COLD FRONT OFFSHORE WITH GUSTY WEST WIND USHERING IN MUCH DRIER
AIRMASS AS DEWPOINTS FALL THROUGH THE 50S AND INTO THE 40S.
DIURNAL CU EXPECTED WITH GREATEST COVERAGE IN THE INTERIOR. STRONG
LOW LEVEL CAA...ESPECIALLY WEST WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 60S BUT
REACHING INTO THE 70S IN THE COASTAL PLAIN WHERE STRONGER CAA IS
DELAYED UNTIL AFTER 18Z. GOOD MIXING WILL YIELD WIND GUSTS TO
25-30 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS OVER THE ELEVATED TERRAIN.
CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK SO NO MAJOR CHANGES.

A BUILDING OFFSHORE SWELL TODAY...WILL YIELD HIGH SURF
PARTICULARLY AT SOUTH COASTAL BEACHES TODAY. THEREFORE...WILL
CONTINUE HIGH SURF ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
COOL DRY AIRMASS SETTLES IN PLACE AS NOSE OF STRONG 1035 HPA HIGH
PRES MOVES IN FROM THE W. IN SPITE OF THIS MORE AUTUMN-LIKE
AIRMASS...MINS MAY NOT BE ABLE TO REALIZE THEIR FULL POTENTIAL.
THE COMBINATION OF LINGERING DIURNAL CU EARLY...AND SFC PRES
GRADIENT TAKING SOME TIME TO FULLY SLACKEN MAY LIMIT RADIATIONAL
COOLING. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S-MID 40S ARE LIKELY...WITH MINS
CLOSER TO 50 IN THE URBAN SPOTS. THE COLDEST SPOTS ARE LIKELY IN
NW MA AND SW NH. IT/S VERY CLOSE TO FROST THRESHOLDS...BUT WITH
THE MITIGATING FACTORS MENTIONED...NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ISSUE
FROST ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED THROUGH
THE DAY.

TUE...
HIGH PRES BEGINS TO CREST ACROSS THE REGION ON TUE.
THEREFORE...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED. H85 TEMPS HOVER
AROUND +6C...BUT MAY NOT BE FULLY REALIZED UNDER STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THEREFORE...KEEPING HIGHS GENERALLY A DEGREE
OR TWO BELOW NORMAL. MAINLY THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* THE 1ST WEEK OF AUTUMN WILL FEATURE MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS
  FOLLOWED BY POTENTIAL NEAR RECORD WARMTH NEXT WEEKEND

* HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD

     SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL EVALUATION...

FAIRLY STRONG TELECONNECTION FOR RIDGING HERE IN THE EAST THIS
COMING WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND AS +PNA TRENDS TOWARD NEUTRAL ALONG
WITH NAO AND AO TRENDING OR REMAINING POSITIVE. DURING THIS TIME THE
LARGE SCALE FLOW EVOLVES INTO A WEST COAST TROUGH WITH A DOWNSTREAM
RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES NORTHWARD TOWARD JAMES BAY.  THIS IS A
WARM AND DRY SETUP FOR NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER GIVEN THE CHAOTIC NATURE
OF THE ATMOSPHERE THERE ARE ALWAYS WILDCARDS AT THIS TIME RANGE AND
THIS CASE IS NO EXCEPTION.

THE FIRST WILDCARD WILL BE THE DOWNSTREAM MEAN TROUGH OVER THE
MARITIMES. WILL HAVE TO WATCH IF ANY NORTHERN STREAM IMPULSES
CLIMBING OVER THE GREAT LAKES RIDGE AND THEN INTO THE MARITIMES
DRAGS ANY BACKDOOR FRONTS INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WOULD YIELD
COOLER TEMPS ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN MA. THE OTHER WILDCARD WILL BE
MOISTURE AND JET ENERGY THAT BREAKS OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES
FROM THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD TODAY.
SOME OF THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE HAS THIS MOISTURE/INVERTED TROUGH
CREEPING NORTHWARD DURING THIS WEEK AND GETTING CLOSE TO NEW ENGLAND
WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT BEFORE THEN GETTING SHUNTED OUT TO SEA FRI.

OTHERWISE DESPITE AUTUMN ARRIVING LATER TODAY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
DELIVERS ONE OR MORE DAYS OF ANOMALOUS WARMTH TO THE REGION NEXT
WEEKEND. THE 12Z ECENS AND 00Z GEFS HAVE 850 TEMPS WARMING TO +14C
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS TIME.

     DAILY SENSIBLE WEATHER DETAILS...

TUESDAY NIGHT THRU THU...

DRY AIRMASS OVER NEW ENGLAND ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AS SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA WILL YIELD IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. THIS WILL RESULT IN CHILLY NIGHTS WITH MOST LOCATIONS
DIPPING INTO THE 40S OUTSIDE THE URBAN AREAS AND AWAY FROM THE
COASTLINE. HOWEVER AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL RECOVER NICELY TO 65-70.
GIVEN PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE HIGH WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH LOCAL
SEABREEZES DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS WILL STRAY AWAY FROM A MODEL BLEND AND FOLLOW THE
COOLER MOS GUIDANCE AND EVEN SHAVE OFF A FEW MORE DEGS IN THE
TYPICALLY COOLER LOCATIONS /I.E. NORWOOD-TAUNTON-MARTHAS VINEYARD-
ETC/. AS MENTIONED ABOVE WILL HAVE TO WATCH MOISTURE AND INVERTED
TROUGH CREEPING UP THE COAST WED NIGHT THRU THU NIGHT. 00Z GEFS HAS
TRENDED NORTH WITH LOW PROBS OF 0.05 QPF ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. THIS
SUPPORTS THE FARTHER NORTH SOLUTION OF THE OPERATIONAL 00Z GFS. IN
ADDITION A MODEL BLEND OF ALL DATASETS BRINGS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO
THE SOUTH COAST WITH A MODEL BLEND OF QPF BRINGING MEASURABLE RAIN
INTO NORTHERN CT-RI TO SOUTHERN SUBURBS OF BOSTON.


FRI/SAT AND SUN...

SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS WESTWARD FROM OVER NEW ENGLAND TO ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS YIELDS A WARMER WNW LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW INTO NEW
ENGLAND. THIS SHOULD YIELD TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S FRI AND THEN
PUSHING 80 OR SO NEXT WEEKEND. THE RECORDS FOR THE DAY INCLUDE

     9/27...

BOS...86...1998
BDL...88...1998
PVD...86...1998
ORH...85...1933

GIVEN THE TIME RANGE HERE ALONG WITH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WILL
FOLLOW A MODEL BLEND. HUMIDITY SHOULD BE IN THE COMFORTABLE RANGE
GIVEN WNW LOW LEVEL LAND TRAJECTORY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

7 AM UPDATE...

COLD FRONT NOW OFFSHORE WITH WEST WINDS AT ALL TERMINALS AND VFR
CONDITIONS. WEST WINDS GUSTS UP TO 25 KT TODAY ALONG WITH VFR
CONDITIONS. 06Z TAFS CAPTURE THESE DETAILS SO NO MAJOR CHANGES
WITH UPCOMING 12Z TAFS. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

===================================================================

TODAY INTO TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR...ALTHOUGH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MAY LINGER AT ACK THROUGH MID
MORNING. WINDS MAINLY WNW TODAY...GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KT AT
TIMES THEN DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MAINLY VFR FROM NOW ON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MAINLY VFR FROM NOW ON.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR EACH DAY. EXCEPTION WILL BE A LOW RISK OF
MVFR IN SHOWERS SOUTH COAST INCLUDING THE ISLANDS FROM WED NIGHT
THRU THU NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SLOWLY BUILDING SWELL MAY APPROACH 10 FT WELL OFFSHORE...BUT
INCREASE TO 5-8FT CLOSER TO THE THE SRN NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH
THE DAY...AS W-NW WINDS REACH ABOUT 25 KT. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED AND WILL CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT...DROPPING CLOSE TO SHORE THIS EVENING AS WINDS
DIMINISH. HOWEVER...THE SWELL MAY TAKE UNTIL EARLY TUE MORNING TO
COMPLETELY DIMINISH ON THE S AND SE WATERS.

TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
AFTER THE LEFTOVER SWELL SUBSIDES...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF QUIET
BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRES BEGINS TO CREST OVER THE
WATERS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

LIGHT WINDS THRU THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRES REMAINS OVER OR NEAR THE
REGION. DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY TOO. POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WILL BE
RAIN SHOWERS WED NIGHT THRU THU NIGHT AS MOISTURE ADVECTS UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ020>024.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 221351
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
951 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRIER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS OVERSPREADS THE REGION TODAY BEHIND
A DEPARTING COLD FRONT THIS MORNING...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS. THIS AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE REGION MUCH
OF THE WEEK YIELDING MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS. BY WEEKS END TEMPERATURES
BEGIN TO WARM WITH POSSIBLE RECORD WARMTH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
945 AM UPDATE...
COLD FRONT OFFSHORE WITH GUSTY WEST WIND USHERING IN MUCH DRIER
AIRMASS AS DEWPOINTS FALL THROUGH THE 50S AND INTO THE 40S.
DIURNAL CU EXPECTED WITH GREATEST COVERAGE IN THE INTERIOR. STRONG
LOW LEVEL CAA...ESPECIALLY WEST WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 60S BUT
REACHING INTO THE 70S IN THE COASTAL PLAIN WHERE STRONGER CAA IS
DELAYED UNTIL AFTER 18Z. GOOD MIXING WILL YIELD WIND GUSTS TO
25-30 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS OVER THE ELEVATED TERRAIN.
CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK SO NO MAJOR CHANGES.

A BUILDING OFFSHORE SWELL TODAY...WILL YIELD HIGH SURF
PARTICULARLY AT SOUTH COASTAL BEACHES TODAY. THEREFORE...WILL
CONTINUE HIGH SURF ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
COOL DRY AIRMASS SETTLES IN PLACE AS NOSE OF STRONG 1035 HPA HIGH
PRES MOVES IN FROM THE W. IN SPITE OF THIS MORE AUTUMN-LIKE
AIRMASS...MINS MAY NOT BE ABLE TO REALIZE THEIR FULL POTENTIAL.
THE COMBINATION OF LINGERING DIURNAL CU EARLY...AND SFC PRES
GRADIENT TAKING SOME TIME TO FULLY SLACKEN MAY LIMIT RADIATIONAL
COOLING. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S-MID 40S ARE LIKELY...WITH MINS
CLOSER TO 50 IN THE URBAN SPOTS. THE COLDEST SPOTS ARE LIKELY IN
NW MA AND SW NH. IT/S VERY CLOSE TO FROST THRESHOLDS...BUT WITH
THE MITIGATING FACTORS MENTIONED...NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ISSUE
FROST ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED THROUGH
THE DAY.

TUE...
HIGH PRES BEGINS TO CREST ACROSS THE REGION ON TUE.
THEREFORE...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED. H85 TEMPS HOVER
AROUND +6C...BUT MAY NOT BE FULLY REALIZED UNDER STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THEREFORE...KEEPING HIGHS GENERALLY A DEGREE
OR TWO BELOW NORMAL. MAINLY THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* THE 1ST WEEK OF AUTUMN WILL FEATURE MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS
  FOLLOWED BY POTENTIAL NEAR RECORD WARMTH NEXT WEEKEND

* HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD

     SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL EVALUATION...

FAIRLY STRONG TELECONNECTION FOR RIDGING HERE IN THE EAST THIS
COMING WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND AS +PNA TRENDS TOWARD NEUTRAL ALONG
WITH NAO AND AO TRENDING OR REMAINING POSITIVE. DURING THIS TIME THE
LARGE SCALE FLOW EVOLVES INTO A WEST COAST TROUGH WITH A DOWNSTREAM
RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES NORTHWARD TOWARD JAMES BAY.  THIS IS A
WARM AND DRY SETUP FOR NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER GIVEN THE CHAOTIC NATURE
OF THE ATMOSPHERE THERE ARE ALWAYS WILDCARDS AT THIS TIME RANGE AND
THIS CASE IS NO EXCEPTION.

THE FIRST WILDCARD WILL BE THE DOWNSTREAM MEAN TROUGH OVER THE
MARITIMES. WILL HAVE TO WATCH IF ANY NORTHERN STREAM IMPULSES
CLIMBING OVER THE GREAT LAKES RIDGE AND THEN INTO THE MARITIMES
DRAGS ANY BACKDOOR FRONTS INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WOULD YIELD
COOLER TEMPS ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN MA. THE OTHER WILDCARD WILL BE
MOISTURE AND JET ENERGY THAT BREAKS OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES
FROM THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD TODAY.
SOME OF THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE HAS THIS MOISTURE/INVERTED TROUGH
CREEPING NORTHWARD DURING THIS WEEK AND GETTING CLOSE TO NEW ENGLAND
WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT BEFORE THEN GETTING SHUNTED OUT TO SEA FRI.

OTHERWISE DESPITE AUTUMN ARRIVING LATER TODAY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
DELIVERS ONE OR MORE DAYS OF ANOMALOUS WARMTH TO THE REGION NEXT
WEEKEND. THE 12Z ECENS AND 00Z GEFS HAVE 850 TEMPS WARMING TO +14C
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS TIME.

     DAILY SENSIBLE WEATHER DETAILS...

TUESDAY NIGHT THRU THU...

DRY AIRMASS OVER NEW ENGLAND ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AS SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA WILL YIELD IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. THIS WILL RESULT IN CHILLY NIGHTS WITH MOST LOCATIONS
DIPPING INTO THE 40S OUTSIDE THE URBAN AREAS AND AWAY FROM THE
COASTLINE. HOWEVER AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL RECOVER NICELY TO 65-70.
GIVEN PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE HIGH WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH LOCAL
SEABREEZES DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS WILL STRAY AWAY FROM A MODEL BLEND AND FOLLOW THE
COOLER MOS GUIDANCE AND EVEN SHAVE OFF A FEW MORE DEGS IN THE
TYPICALLY COOLER LOCATIONS /I.E. NORWOOD-TAUNTON-MARTHAS VINEYARD-
ETC/. AS MENTIONED ABOVE WILL HAVE TO WATCH MOISTURE AND INVERTED
TROUGH CREEPING UP THE COAST WED NIGHT THRU THU NIGHT. 00Z GEFS HAS
TRENDED NORTH WITH LOW PROBS OF 0.05 QPF ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. THIS
SUPPORTS THE FARTHER NORTH SOLUTION OF THE OPERATIONAL 00Z GFS. IN
ADDITION A MODEL BLEND OF ALL DATASETS BRINGS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO
THE SOUTH COAST WITH A MODEL BLEND OF QPF BRINGING MEASURABLE RAIN
INTO NORTHERN CT-RI TO SOUTHERN SUBURBS OF BOSTON.


FRI/SAT AND SUN...

SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS WESTWARD FROM OVER NEW ENGLAND TO ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS YIELDS A WARMER WNW LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW INTO NEW
ENGLAND. THIS SHOULD YIELD TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S FRI AND THEN
PUSHING 80 OR SO NEXT WEEKEND. THE RECORDS FOR THE DAY INCLUDE

     9/27...

BOS...86...1998
BDL...88...1998
PVD...86...1998
ORH...85...1933

GIVEN THE TIME RANGE HERE ALONG WITH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WILL
FOLLOW A MODEL BLEND. HUMIDITY SHOULD BE IN THE COMFORTABLE RANGE
GIVEN WNW LOW LEVEL LAND TRAJECTORY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

7 AM UPDATE...

COLD FRONT NOW OFFSHORE WITH WEST WINDS AT ALL TERMINALS AND VFR
CONDITIONS. WEST WINDS GUSTS UP TO 25 KT TODAY ALONG WITH VFR
CONDITIONS. 06Z TAFS CAPTURE THESE DETAILS SO NO MAJOR CHANGES
WITH UPCOMING 12Z TAFS. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

===================================================================

TODAY INTO TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR...ALTHOUGH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MAY LINGER AT ACK THROUGH MID
MORNING. WINDS MAINLY WNW TODAY...GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KT AT
TIMES THEN DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MAINLY VFR FROM NOW ON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MAINLY VFR FROM NOW ON.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR EACH DAY. EXCEPTION WILL BE A LOW RISK OF
MVFR IN SHOWERS SOUTH COAST INCLUDING THE ISLANDS FROM WED NIGHT
THRU THU NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SLOWLY BUILDING SWELL MAY APPROACH 10 FT WELL OFFSHORE...BUT
INCREASE TO 5-8FT CLOSER TO THE THE SRN NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH
THE DAY...AS W-NW WINDS REACH ABOUT 25 KT. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED AND WILL CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT...DROPPING CLOSE TO SHORE THIS EVENING AS WINDS
DIMINISH. HOWEVER...THE SWELL MAY TAKE UNTIL EARLY TUE MORNING TO
COMPLETELY DIMINISH ON THE S AND SE WATERS.

TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
AFTER THE LEFTOVER SWELL SUBSIDES...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF QUIET
BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRES BEGINS TO CREST OVER THE
WATERS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

LIGHT WINDS THRU THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRES REMAINS OVER OR NEAR THE
REGION. DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY TOO. POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WILL BE
RAIN SHOWERS WED NIGHT THRU THU NIGHT AS MOISTURE ADVECTS UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ020>024.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KOKX 221123
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
723 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT...REMAINING
IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO REFLECT LATEST
OBSERVATIONS.

OTHERWISE...THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE CWA THIS
MORNING AS THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY PIVOTS EAST THROUGH THE
DAY. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE THEN QUICKLY BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST TODAY.

WITH THE SUBSIDENCE BUILDING IN...SKIES WILL CLEAR WITH JUST
SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. CAA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
COUPLED WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS THE HIGH APPROACHES
WILL LEND TO GUSTY WINDS TODAY...20-25MPH AT THE HIGHEST THIS
AFTERNOON.

VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH A GENERAL
MAV/MET/GMOS BLEND USED. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE AREA AND A
COOL NW FLOW...HIGHS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY AT ATLANTIC OCEAN
FACING BEACHES MAINLY DUE TO A SWELL FROM AN OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...LOW TEMPS WILL
BE ABLE TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S FOR INTERIOR LOCATIONS AND
RANGE TO THE LOWER 50S NEAR THE NYC METRO...QUITE BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

EVEN WITH THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA ON
TUESDAY...LITTLE MOISTURE IS IN PLACE TO PROVIDE FOR MANY CLOUDS.
EXPECTING A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND LIGHT NW-N FLOW.

MAV/MET/GMOS BLEND AGAIN WORKED WELL FOR TEMPS. HIGHS ON TUESDAY
WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...EVENTUALLY LIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. THIS HIGH WILL PROVIDE THE REGION WITH FAIR AND DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS STARTED TO HINT AT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG
ISLAND THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW...THINKING THE HIGH
WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
LOW SOUTH OF THE REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF BACK OVER THE REGION FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK...WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH
THURSDAY...THEN RISE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST
THROUGH TONIGHT.

WNW WINDS INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY AFTER DAYBREAK WITH ISOLD
GUSTS TO 30KT. WINDS GENERALLY WILL WAVER BETWEEN 290 AND 320 MAG
DURING THE DAY. WINDS AND GUSTS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS
EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT NW AFTER MIDNIGHT.

VFR TODAY WITH SCT 3.5-4.5 KFT CU THIS AFTERNOON...LOCALLY BKN AT
WESTERN TERMINALS. CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AVERAGING JUST
LEFT OF 310 MAG EARLY THIS MORNING...VEER TO THE RIGHT OF
310 MAG BY MID MORNING...THEN BACK TO LEFT OF 310 MAG THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF TROUGH APPROACH.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AVERAGING JUST
LEFT OF 310 MAG EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN VEER TO THE RIGHT OF
310 MAG BY MID MORNING AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AVERAGING JUST
LEFT OF 310 MAG EARLY THIS MORNING...VEER TO THE RIGHT OF
310 MAG BY MID MORNING...THEN BACK TO LEFT OF 310 MAG THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF TROUGH APPROACH.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUE THROUGH FRI...
.TUE...VFR WITH LGT WINDS.
.WED...MVFR CIGS AROUND 3000FT POSSIBLE. ENE WINDS 5-15KT.
.THU AND FRI...VFR. MODERATE NE/N FLOW POSSIBLE. LOW PROB OF MVFR
CIGS IN LIGHT RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN TERMINALS...DEPENDING ON HOW
FAR NORTH COASTAL LOW TRACKS.

&&

.MARINE...
LONG PERIOD SE SWELLS HAVE QUICKLY BUILT TO 5 TO 8 FT THIS MORNING
WITH OCEAN SEAS EXPECTED TO RUNNING 6-9 FT INTO THE AFTERNOON AS
AN OFFSHORE LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA.
WIND AND GUSTS TO 25KT ARE ALSO EXPECTED ON THE OCEAN WATERS. NO
CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXISTING SCA IN PLACE. OCCASIONAL GUSTS
TO 25 KT ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON THE OTHER WATERS BUT CONFIDENCE TOO
LOW TO ISSUE A SCA.

SEAS DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH WINDS AND WAVES FALLING BELOW
SCA CRITERIA BY TUESDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE
POSSIBILITY OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING WELL
SOUTH OF OUR WATERS AND PASSING SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY TO THE INTENSITY AND TRACK OF THE LOW.
GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION...WHICH SHOULD BUILD SEAS TO
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. HAVE UNDERCUT WAVEWATCH BY A LITTLE DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY OF THIS EVENT.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/LN
NEAR TERM...BC/LN
SHORT TERM...LN
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...BC/LN
HYDROLOGY...LN






000
FXUS61 KOKX 221123
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
723 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT...REMAINING
IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO REFLECT LATEST
OBSERVATIONS.

OTHERWISE...THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE CWA THIS
MORNING AS THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY PIVOTS EAST THROUGH THE
DAY. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE THEN QUICKLY BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST TODAY.

WITH THE SUBSIDENCE BUILDING IN...SKIES WILL CLEAR WITH JUST
SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. CAA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
COUPLED WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS THE HIGH APPROACHES
WILL LEND TO GUSTY WINDS TODAY...20-25MPH AT THE HIGHEST THIS
AFTERNOON.

VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH A GENERAL
MAV/MET/GMOS BLEND USED. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE AREA AND A
COOL NW FLOW...HIGHS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY AT ATLANTIC OCEAN
FACING BEACHES MAINLY DUE TO A SWELL FROM AN OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...LOW TEMPS WILL
BE ABLE TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S FOR INTERIOR LOCATIONS AND
RANGE TO THE LOWER 50S NEAR THE NYC METRO...QUITE BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

EVEN WITH THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA ON
TUESDAY...LITTLE MOISTURE IS IN PLACE TO PROVIDE FOR MANY CLOUDS.
EXPECTING A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND LIGHT NW-N FLOW.

MAV/MET/GMOS BLEND AGAIN WORKED WELL FOR TEMPS. HIGHS ON TUESDAY
WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...EVENTUALLY LIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. THIS HIGH WILL PROVIDE THE REGION WITH FAIR AND DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS STARTED TO HINT AT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG
ISLAND THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW...THINKING THE HIGH
WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
LOW SOUTH OF THE REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF BACK OVER THE REGION FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK...WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH
THURSDAY...THEN RISE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST
THROUGH TONIGHT.

WNW WINDS INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY AFTER DAYBREAK WITH ISOLD
GUSTS TO 30KT. WINDS GENERALLY WILL WAVER BETWEEN 290 AND 320 MAG
DURING THE DAY. WINDS AND GUSTS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS
EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT NW AFTER MIDNIGHT.

VFR TODAY WITH SCT 3.5-4.5 KFT CU THIS AFTERNOON...LOCALLY BKN AT
WESTERN TERMINALS. CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AVERAGING JUST
LEFT OF 310 MAG EARLY THIS MORNING...VEER TO THE RIGHT OF
310 MAG BY MID MORNING...THEN BACK TO LEFT OF 310 MAG THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF TROUGH APPROACH.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AVERAGING JUST
LEFT OF 310 MAG EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN VEER TO THE RIGHT OF
310 MAG BY MID MORNING AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AVERAGING JUST
LEFT OF 310 MAG EARLY THIS MORNING...VEER TO THE RIGHT OF
310 MAG BY MID MORNING...THEN BACK TO LEFT OF 310 MAG THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF TROUGH APPROACH.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUE THROUGH FRI...
.TUE...VFR WITH LGT WINDS.
.WED...MVFR CIGS AROUND 3000FT POSSIBLE. ENE WINDS 5-15KT.
.THU AND FRI...VFR. MODERATE NE/N FLOW POSSIBLE. LOW PROB OF MVFR
CIGS IN LIGHT RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN TERMINALS...DEPENDING ON HOW
FAR NORTH COASTAL LOW TRACKS.

&&

.MARINE...
LONG PERIOD SE SWELLS HAVE QUICKLY BUILT TO 5 TO 8 FT THIS MORNING
WITH OCEAN SEAS EXPECTED TO RUNNING 6-9 FT INTO THE AFTERNOON AS
AN OFFSHORE LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA.
WIND AND GUSTS TO 25KT ARE ALSO EXPECTED ON THE OCEAN WATERS. NO
CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXISTING SCA IN PLACE. OCCASIONAL GUSTS
TO 25 KT ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON THE OTHER WATERS BUT CONFIDENCE TOO
LOW TO ISSUE A SCA.

SEAS DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH WINDS AND WAVES FALLING BELOW
SCA CRITERIA BY TUESDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE
POSSIBILITY OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING WELL
SOUTH OF OUR WATERS AND PASSING SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY TO THE INTENSITY AND TRACK OF THE LOW.
GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION...WHICH SHOULD BUILD SEAS TO
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. HAVE UNDERCUT WAVEWATCH BY A LITTLE DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY OF THIS EVENT.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/LN
NEAR TERM...BC/LN
SHORT TERM...LN
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...BC/LN
HYDROLOGY...LN






000
FXUS61 KOKX 221123
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
723 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT...REMAINING
IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO REFLECT LATEST
OBSERVATIONS.

OTHERWISE...THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE CWA THIS
MORNING AS THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY PIVOTS EAST THROUGH THE
DAY. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE THEN QUICKLY BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST TODAY.

WITH THE SUBSIDENCE BUILDING IN...SKIES WILL CLEAR WITH JUST
SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. CAA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
COUPLED WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS THE HIGH APPROACHES
WILL LEND TO GUSTY WINDS TODAY...20-25MPH AT THE HIGHEST THIS
AFTERNOON.

VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH A GENERAL
MAV/MET/GMOS BLEND USED. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE AREA AND A
COOL NW FLOW...HIGHS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY AT ATLANTIC OCEAN
FACING BEACHES MAINLY DUE TO A SWELL FROM AN OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...LOW TEMPS WILL
BE ABLE TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S FOR INTERIOR LOCATIONS AND
RANGE TO THE LOWER 50S NEAR THE NYC METRO...QUITE BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

EVEN WITH THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA ON
TUESDAY...LITTLE MOISTURE IS IN PLACE TO PROVIDE FOR MANY CLOUDS.
EXPECTING A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND LIGHT NW-N FLOW.

MAV/MET/GMOS BLEND AGAIN WORKED WELL FOR TEMPS. HIGHS ON TUESDAY
WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...EVENTUALLY LIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. THIS HIGH WILL PROVIDE THE REGION WITH FAIR AND DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS STARTED TO HINT AT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG
ISLAND THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW...THINKING THE HIGH
WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
LOW SOUTH OF THE REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF BACK OVER THE REGION FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK...WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH
THURSDAY...THEN RISE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST
THROUGH TONIGHT.

WNW WINDS INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY AFTER DAYBREAK WITH ISOLD
GUSTS TO 30KT. WINDS GENERALLY WILL WAVER BETWEEN 290 AND 320 MAG
DURING THE DAY. WINDS AND GUSTS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS
EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT NW AFTER MIDNIGHT.

VFR TODAY WITH SCT 3.5-4.5 KFT CU THIS AFTERNOON...LOCALLY BKN AT
WESTERN TERMINALS. CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AVERAGING JUST
LEFT OF 310 MAG EARLY THIS MORNING...VEER TO THE RIGHT OF
310 MAG BY MID MORNING...THEN BACK TO LEFT OF 310 MAG THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF TROUGH APPROACH.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AVERAGING JUST
LEFT OF 310 MAG EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN VEER TO THE RIGHT OF
310 MAG BY MID MORNING AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AVERAGING JUST
LEFT OF 310 MAG EARLY THIS MORNING...VEER TO THE RIGHT OF
310 MAG BY MID MORNING...THEN BACK TO LEFT OF 310 MAG THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF TROUGH APPROACH.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUE THROUGH FRI...
.TUE...VFR WITH LGT WINDS.
.WED...MVFR CIGS AROUND 3000FT POSSIBLE. ENE WINDS 5-15KT.
.THU AND FRI...VFR. MODERATE NE/N FLOW POSSIBLE. LOW PROB OF MVFR
CIGS IN LIGHT RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN TERMINALS...DEPENDING ON HOW
FAR NORTH COASTAL LOW TRACKS.

&&

.MARINE...
LONG PERIOD SE SWELLS HAVE QUICKLY BUILT TO 5 TO 8 FT THIS MORNING
WITH OCEAN SEAS EXPECTED TO RUNNING 6-9 FT INTO THE AFTERNOON AS
AN OFFSHORE LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA.
WIND AND GUSTS TO 25KT ARE ALSO EXPECTED ON THE OCEAN WATERS. NO
CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXISTING SCA IN PLACE. OCCASIONAL GUSTS
TO 25 KT ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON THE OTHER WATERS BUT CONFIDENCE TOO
LOW TO ISSUE A SCA.

SEAS DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH WINDS AND WAVES FALLING BELOW
SCA CRITERIA BY TUESDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE
POSSIBILITY OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING WELL
SOUTH OF OUR WATERS AND PASSING SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY TO THE INTENSITY AND TRACK OF THE LOW.
GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION...WHICH SHOULD BUILD SEAS TO
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. HAVE UNDERCUT WAVEWATCH BY A LITTLE DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY OF THIS EVENT.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/LN
NEAR TERM...BC/LN
SHORT TERM...LN
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...BC/LN
HYDROLOGY...LN






000
FXUS61 KOKX 221123
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
723 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT...REMAINING
IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO REFLECT LATEST
OBSERVATIONS.

OTHERWISE...THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE CWA THIS
MORNING AS THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY PIVOTS EAST THROUGH THE
DAY. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE THEN QUICKLY BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST TODAY.

WITH THE SUBSIDENCE BUILDING IN...SKIES WILL CLEAR WITH JUST
SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. CAA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
COUPLED WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS THE HIGH APPROACHES
WILL LEND TO GUSTY WINDS TODAY...20-25MPH AT THE HIGHEST THIS
AFTERNOON.

VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH A GENERAL
MAV/MET/GMOS BLEND USED. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE AREA AND A
COOL NW FLOW...HIGHS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY AT ATLANTIC OCEAN
FACING BEACHES MAINLY DUE TO A SWELL FROM AN OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...LOW TEMPS WILL
BE ABLE TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S FOR INTERIOR LOCATIONS AND
RANGE TO THE LOWER 50S NEAR THE NYC METRO...QUITE BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

EVEN WITH THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA ON
TUESDAY...LITTLE MOISTURE IS IN PLACE TO PROVIDE FOR MANY CLOUDS.
EXPECTING A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND LIGHT NW-N FLOW.

MAV/MET/GMOS BLEND AGAIN WORKED WELL FOR TEMPS. HIGHS ON TUESDAY
WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...EVENTUALLY LIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. THIS HIGH WILL PROVIDE THE REGION WITH FAIR AND DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS STARTED TO HINT AT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG
ISLAND THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW...THINKING THE HIGH
WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
LOW SOUTH OF THE REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF BACK OVER THE REGION FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK...WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH
THURSDAY...THEN RISE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST
THROUGH TONIGHT.

WNW WINDS INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY AFTER DAYBREAK WITH ISOLD
GUSTS TO 30KT. WINDS GENERALLY WILL WAVER BETWEEN 290 AND 320 MAG
DURING THE DAY. WINDS AND GUSTS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS
EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT NW AFTER MIDNIGHT.

VFR TODAY WITH SCT 3.5-4.5 KFT CU THIS AFTERNOON...LOCALLY BKN AT
WESTERN TERMINALS. CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AVERAGING JUST
LEFT OF 310 MAG EARLY THIS MORNING...VEER TO THE RIGHT OF
310 MAG BY MID MORNING...THEN BACK TO LEFT OF 310 MAG THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF TROUGH APPROACH.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AVERAGING JUST
LEFT OF 310 MAG EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN VEER TO THE RIGHT OF
310 MAG BY MID MORNING AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AVERAGING JUST
LEFT OF 310 MAG EARLY THIS MORNING...VEER TO THE RIGHT OF
310 MAG BY MID MORNING...THEN BACK TO LEFT OF 310 MAG THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF TROUGH APPROACH.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUE THROUGH FRI...
.TUE...VFR WITH LGT WINDS.
.WED...MVFR CIGS AROUND 3000FT POSSIBLE. ENE WINDS 5-15KT.
.THU AND FRI...VFR. MODERATE NE/N FLOW POSSIBLE. LOW PROB OF MVFR
CIGS IN LIGHT RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN TERMINALS...DEPENDING ON HOW
FAR NORTH COASTAL LOW TRACKS.

&&

.MARINE...
LONG PERIOD SE SWELLS HAVE QUICKLY BUILT TO 5 TO 8 FT THIS MORNING
WITH OCEAN SEAS EXPECTED TO RUNNING 6-9 FT INTO THE AFTERNOON AS
AN OFFSHORE LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA.
WIND AND GUSTS TO 25KT ARE ALSO EXPECTED ON THE OCEAN WATERS. NO
CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXISTING SCA IN PLACE. OCCASIONAL GUSTS
TO 25 KT ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON THE OTHER WATERS BUT CONFIDENCE TOO
LOW TO ISSUE A SCA.

SEAS DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH WINDS AND WAVES FALLING BELOW
SCA CRITERIA BY TUESDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE
POSSIBILITY OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING WELL
SOUTH OF OUR WATERS AND PASSING SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY TO THE INTENSITY AND TRACK OF THE LOW.
GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION...WHICH SHOULD BUILD SEAS TO
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. HAVE UNDERCUT WAVEWATCH BY A LITTLE DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY OF THIS EVENT.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/LN
NEAR TERM...BC/LN
SHORT TERM...LN
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...BC/LN
HYDROLOGY...LN






000
FXUS61 KALY 221121
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
721 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER AND BRISK CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR TODAY IN THE
WAKE OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR MIDWEEK WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 640 AM EDT...CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO FILL BACK IN ACROSS
VALLEY AREAS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NW CT AND PORTIONS OF THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY WHERE SKIES REMAIN GENERALLY CLEAR. SOME SPRINKLES
ARE NOTED IN RADAR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY AND CATSKILLS...WITH A FEW SPRINKLES
ALSO NOTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION.

OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/COLD
POOL...AND ANOTHER SFC TROUGH PIVOT EAST TOWARD THE REGION...WE
EXPECT THE COVERAGE OF CLOUDS TO CONTINUE EXPANDING. IN
ADDITION...SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES POSSIBLY DEVELOPING FURTHER S AND E INTO THE
MOHAWK AND UPPER HUDSON VALLEYS...AND SOUTHERN VT SHORTLY AFTER
DAYBREAK. SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES SHOULD BECOME MORE CONFINED TO
HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN VT FOR THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH PASSAGE.

SO...ALTHOUGH A FEW BREAKS OF SUN MAY OCCUR RIGHT AROUND
SUNRISE IN VALLEY AREAS...WE DO EXPECT A TREND TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY. IN THE WAKE
OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT
ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE COULD ALLOW FOR MORE BREAKS TO DEVELOP IN VALLEY
AREAS FOR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THERE REMAINS AT LEAST A CHANCE
THAT MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES BECOMES TRAPPED BENEATH A
DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. FOR NOW...HAVE INDICATED SKIES
BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY DURING THE AFTERNOON IN VALLEYS...WHILE
REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...BUT TRENDS WILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED IN CASE THE CLOUDS REMAIN MORE PERSISTENT.

WINDS WILL BE QUITE BRISK FROM THE W TO NW...WITH SOME GUSTS OF
25-35 MPH POSSIBLE...ESP IN AREAS WITHIN AND ADJACENT TO THE
MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

TEMPS WILL BE QUITE TRICKY...AS STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
WOULD SUPPORT TEMPS TO HOLD STEADY...OR SLOWLY FALL FROM THIS
MORNING/S LEVELS. HOWEVER...WILL INDICATE A SMALL RISE IN TEMPS
DURING THE LATE MORNING/MIDDAY HOURS...BEFORE SLOWLY FALLING THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE INDICATED A GENERAL BLEND OF THE MAV/MET
MOS...WITH MAXES GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 60
IN MOST VALLEYS...EXCEPT FOR MID/UPPER 60S ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS IN NW CT...WHERE MORE SUNSHINE...AND
DOWNSLOPING OFF THE CATSKILLS SHOULD PROMOTE ADDITIONAL WARMING.
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...MOST MAX TEMPS WILL ONLY REACH THE
50S...WITH PERHAPS SOME 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF SOME WIND...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF AT
LEAST PATCHY CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT THE FROST POTENTIAL FOR
TONIGHT...WITH MOST MIN TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S.

TUESDAY...A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING SE ON THE
WEST SIDE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY ALLOW FOR A
PERIOD OF CLOUDS DURING TUE AFTERNOON...ESP FOR AREAS N AND W OF
ALBANY. A FEW SPRINKLES WILL EVEN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH
65-70 IN VALLEYS AND 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

TUE NT-WED NT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS GRADUALLY MODERATING. EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO
FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S BOTH NIGHTS...WITH DAYTIME MAX
TEMPS WED REACHING THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THERE COULD BE SOME
VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING LATE EACH NIGHT...AND WITH VERY LIGHT
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS...COULD TAKE SOME TIME TO BURN OFF WED AM IN
THE DEEPEST VALLEYS...WITH SOME LOW STRATUS POSSIBLY LINGERING IN
SOME AREAS UNTIL MID TO LATE MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
QUIET AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THERE ARE
SOME HINTS OF A COASTAL SYSTEM THURSDAY...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
SOME CLOUDS PERHAPS APPROACHING THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT...BUT NOT MUCH. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER RIDGING
GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES ALSO SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS THURSDAY
SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. HIGHS FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...AROUND 70 IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
TEMPERATURES WARMING ONE OR TWO MORE DEGREES SATURDAY AND AGAIN
SUNDAY...WHEN HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 80...COOLER IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLDER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS
SPREADING INTO EASTERN NY AND CEILINGS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE MVFR
RANGE JUST WEST OF THE TAF SITES. THERE COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES
THIS MORNING AS WELL...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE VCSH ANYWHERE.
SO... THESE LOWER CEILINGS SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS OUR REGION...FOR
INTERVALS OF MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH ABOUT 15Z. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY LIFT TO ABOVE 3000 FEET LATE THIS MORNING AND THEN
GRADUALLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE.  BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
ONLY SCATTERED CLOUDS...WITH SKC DURING THE EVENING AND NIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO AROUND 15KT BY MID
MORNING. WINDS SHOULD BE GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...GUSTING TO
AROUND 25 KT AT TIMES...THEN DIMINISHING SLOWLY THROUGH TOMORROW
EVENING. WINDS SHOULD JUST BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY MIDNIGHT AND
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
     GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25-35 MPH TODAY...

STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE REGION TODAY...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL PRODUCE A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION...LEADING TO GUSTY WINDS.

RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 45-55 PERCENT RANGE IN VALLEYS...AND
55-70 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE RECOVERING TO 90-100 PERCENT WITH SOME DEW
FORMATION POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK. RH VALUES SHOULD DROP TO 40-50
PERCENT IN VALLEYS...AND 50-70 PERCENT ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
FOR TUE AFTERNOON.

W TO NW WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15-25 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE AT TIMES TODAY. W/NW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO
5-15 MPH LATE TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVED ACROSS THE REGION LAST EVENING...WITH ONLY
SCATTERED...LIGHT RAINFALL AMTS OF GENERALLY UNDER ONE TENTH OF AN
INCH...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS OCCURRED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY. THESE AMTS WILL HAVE
NEGLIGIBLE EFFECTS ON AREA RIVERS/STREAMS.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/GJM
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM








000
FXUS61 KALY 221121
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
721 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER AND BRISK CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR TODAY IN THE
WAKE OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR MIDWEEK WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 640 AM EDT...CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO FILL BACK IN ACROSS
VALLEY AREAS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NW CT AND PORTIONS OF THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY WHERE SKIES REMAIN GENERALLY CLEAR. SOME SPRINKLES
ARE NOTED IN RADAR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY AND CATSKILLS...WITH A FEW SPRINKLES
ALSO NOTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION.

OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/COLD
POOL...AND ANOTHER SFC TROUGH PIVOT EAST TOWARD THE REGION...WE
EXPECT THE COVERAGE OF CLOUDS TO CONTINUE EXPANDING. IN
ADDITION...SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES POSSIBLY DEVELOPING FURTHER S AND E INTO THE
MOHAWK AND UPPER HUDSON VALLEYS...AND SOUTHERN VT SHORTLY AFTER
DAYBREAK. SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES SHOULD BECOME MORE CONFINED TO
HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN VT FOR THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH PASSAGE.

SO...ALTHOUGH A FEW BREAKS OF SUN MAY OCCUR RIGHT AROUND
SUNRISE IN VALLEY AREAS...WE DO EXPECT A TREND TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY. IN THE WAKE
OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT
ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE COULD ALLOW FOR MORE BREAKS TO DEVELOP IN VALLEY
AREAS FOR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THERE REMAINS AT LEAST A CHANCE
THAT MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES BECOMES TRAPPED BENEATH A
DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. FOR NOW...HAVE INDICATED SKIES
BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY DURING THE AFTERNOON IN VALLEYS...WHILE
REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...BUT TRENDS WILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED IN CASE THE CLOUDS REMAIN MORE PERSISTENT.

WINDS WILL BE QUITE BRISK FROM THE W TO NW...WITH SOME GUSTS OF
25-35 MPH POSSIBLE...ESP IN AREAS WITHIN AND ADJACENT TO THE
MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

TEMPS WILL BE QUITE TRICKY...AS STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
WOULD SUPPORT TEMPS TO HOLD STEADY...OR SLOWLY FALL FROM THIS
MORNING/S LEVELS. HOWEVER...WILL INDICATE A SMALL RISE IN TEMPS
DURING THE LATE MORNING/MIDDAY HOURS...BEFORE SLOWLY FALLING THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE INDICATED A GENERAL BLEND OF THE MAV/MET
MOS...WITH MAXES GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 60
IN MOST VALLEYS...EXCEPT FOR MID/UPPER 60S ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS IN NW CT...WHERE MORE SUNSHINE...AND
DOWNSLOPING OFF THE CATSKILLS SHOULD PROMOTE ADDITIONAL WARMING.
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...MOST MAX TEMPS WILL ONLY REACH THE
50S...WITH PERHAPS SOME 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF SOME WIND...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF AT
LEAST PATCHY CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT THE FROST POTENTIAL FOR
TONIGHT...WITH MOST MIN TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S.

TUESDAY...A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING SE ON THE
WEST SIDE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY ALLOW FOR A
PERIOD OF CLOUDS DURING TUE AFTERNOON...ESP FOR AREAS N AND W OF
ALBANY. A FEW SPRINKLES WILL EVEN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH
65-70 IN VALLEYS AND 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

TUE NT-WED NT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS GRADUALLY MODERATING. EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO
FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S BOTH NIGHTS...WITH DAYTIME MAX
TEMPS WED REACHING THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THERE COULD BE SOME
VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING LATE EACH NIGHT...AND WITH VERY LIGHT
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS...COULD TAKE SOME TIME TO BURN OFF WED AM IN
THE DEEPEST VALLEYS...WITH SOME LOW STRATUS POSSIBLY LINGERING IN
SOME AREAS UNTIL MID TO LATE MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
QUIET AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THERE ARE
SOME HINTS OF A COASTAL SYSTEM THURSDAY...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
SOME CLOUDS PERHAPS APPROACHING THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT...BUT NOT MUCH. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER RIDGING
GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES ALSO SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS THURSDAY
SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. HIGHS FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...AROUND 70 IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
TEMPERATURES WARMING ONE OR TWO MORE DEGREES SATURDAY AND AGAIN
SUNDAY...WHEN HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 80...COOLER IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLDER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS
SPREADING INTO EASTERN NY AND CEILINGS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE MVFR
RANGE JUST WEST OF THE TAF SITES. THERE COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES
THIS MORNING AS WELL...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE VCSH ANYWHERE.
SO... THESE LOWER CEILINGS SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS OUR REGION...FOR
INTERVALS OF MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH ABOUT 15Z. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY LIFT TO ABOVE 3000 FEET LATE THIS MORNING AND THEN
GRADUALLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE.  BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
ONLY SCATTERED CLOUDS...WITH SKC DURING THE EVENING AND NIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO AROUND 15KT BY MID
MORNING. WINDS SHOULD BE GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...GUSTING TO
AROUND 25 KT AT TIMES...THEN DIMINISHING SLOWLY THROUGH TOMORROW
EVENING. WINDS SHOULD JUST BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY MIDNIGHT AND
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
     GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25-35 MPH TODAY...

STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE REGION TODAY...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL PRODUCE A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION...LEADING TO GUSTY WINDS.

RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 45-55 PERCENT RANGE IN VALLEYS...AND
55-70 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE RECOVERING TO 90-100 PERCENT WITH SOME DEW
FORMATION POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK. RH VALUES SHOULD DROP TO 40-50
PERCENT IN VALLEYS...AND 50-70 PERCENT ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
FOR TUE AFTERNOON.

W TO NW WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15-25 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE AT TIMES TODAY. W/NW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO
5-15 MPH LATE TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVED ACROSS THE REGION LAST EVENING...WITH ONLY
SCATTERED...LIGHT RAINFALL AMTS OF GENERALLY UNDER ONE TENTH OF AN
INCH...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS OCCURRED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY. THESE AMTS WILL HAVE
NEGLIGIBLE EFFECTS ON AREA RIVERS/STREAMS.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/GJM
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM








000
FXUS61 KALY 221121
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
721 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER AND BRISK CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR TODAY IN THE
WAKE OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR MIDWEEK WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 640 AM EDT...CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO FILL BACK IN ACROSS
VALLEY AREAS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NW CT AND PORTIONS OF THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY WHERE SKIES REMAIN GENERALLY CLEAR. SOME SPRINKLES
ARE NOTED IN RADAR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY AND CATSKILLS...WITH A FEW SPRINKLES
ALSO NOTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION.

OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/COLD
POOL...AND ANOTHER SFC TROUGH PIVOT EAST TOWARD THE REGION...WE
EXPECT THE COVERAGE OF CLOUDS TO CONTINUE EXPANDING. IN
ADDITION...SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES POSSIBLY DEVELOPING FURTHER S AND E INTO THE
MOHAWK AND UPPER HUDSON VALLEYS...AND SOUTHERN VT SHORTLY AFTER
DAYBREAK. SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES SHOULD BECOME MORE CONFINED TO
HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN VT FOR THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH PASSAGE.

SO...ALTHOUGH A FEW BREAKS OF SUN MAY OCCUR RIGHT AROUND
SUNRISE IN VALLEY AREAS...WE DO EXPECT A TREND TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY. IN THE WAKE
OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT
ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE COULD ALLOW FOR MORE BREAKS TO DEVELOP IN VALLEY
AREAS FOR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THERE REMAINS AT LEAST A CHANCE
THAT MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES BECOMES TRAPPED BENEATH A
DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. FOR NOW...HAVE INDICATED SKIES
BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY DURING THE AFTERNOON IN VALLEYS...WHILE
REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...BUT TRENDS WILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED IN CASE THE CLOUDS REMAIN MORE PERSISTENT.

WINDS WILL BE QUITE BRISK FROM THE W TO NW...WITH SOME GUSTS OF
25-35 MPH POSSIBLE...ESP IN AREAS WITHIN AND ADJACENT TO THE
MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

TEMPS WILL BE QUITE TRICKY...AS STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
WOULD SUPPORT TEMPS TO HOLD STEADY...OR SLOWLY FALL FROM THIS
MORNING/S LEVELS. HOWEVER...WILL INDICATE A SMALL RISE IN TEMPS
DURING THE LATE MORNING/MIDDAY HOURS...BEFORE SLOWLY FALLING THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE INDICATED A GENERAL BLEND OF THE MAV/MET
MOS...WITH MAXES GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 60
IN MOST VALLEYS...EXCEPT FOR MID/UPPER 60S ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS IN NW CT...WHERE MORE SUNSHINE...AND
DOWNSLOPING OFF THE CATSKILLS SHOULD PROMOTE ADDITIONAL WARMING.
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...MOST MAX TEMPS WILL ONLY REACH THE
50S...WITH PERHAPS SOME 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF SOME WIND...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF AT
LEAST PATCHY CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT THE FROST POTENTIAL FOR
TONIGHT...WITH MOST MIN TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S.

TUESDAY...A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING SE ON THE
WEST SIDE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY ALLOW FOR A
PERIOD OF CLOUDS DURING TUE AFTERNOON...ESP FOR AREAS N AND W OF
ALBANY. A FEW SPRINKLES WILL EVEN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH
65-70 IN VALLEYS AND 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

TUE NT-WED NT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS GRADUALLY MODERATING. EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO
FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S BOTH NIGHTS...WITH DAYTIME MAX
TEMPS WED REACHING THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THERE COULD BE SOME
VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING LATE EACH NIGHT...AND WITH VERY LIGHT
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS...COULD TAKE SOME TIME TO BURN OFF WED AM IN
THE DEEPEST VALLEYS...WITH SOME LOW STRATUS POSSIBLY LINGERING IN
SOME AREAS UNTIL MID TO LATE MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
QUIET AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THERE ARE
SOME HINTS OF A COASTAL SYSTEM THURSDAY...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
SOME CLOUDS PERHAPS APPROACHING THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT...BUT NOT MUCH. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER RIDGING
GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES ALSO SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS THURSDAY
SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. HIGHS FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...AROUND 70 IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
TEMPERATURES WARMING ONE OR TWO MORE DEGREES SATURDAY AND AGAIN
SUNDAY...WHEN HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 80...COOLER IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLDER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS
SPREADING INTO EASTERN NY AND CEILINGS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE MVFR
RANGE JUST WEST OF THE TAF SITES. THERE COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES
THIS MORNING AS WELL...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE VCSH ANYWHERE.
SO... THESE LOWER CEILINGS SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS OUR REGION...FOR
INTERVALS OF MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH ABOUT 15Z. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY LIFT TO ABOVE 3000 FEET LATE THIS MORNING AND THEN
GRADUALLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE.  BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
ONLY SCATTERED CLOUDS...WITH SKC DURING THE EVENING AND NIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO AROUND 15KT BY MID
MORNING. WINDS SHOULD BE GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...GUSTING TO
AROUND 25 KT AT TIMES...THEN DIMINISHING SLOWLY THROUGH TOMORROW
EVENING. WINDS SHOULD JUST BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY MIDNIGHT AND
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
     GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25-35 MPH TODAY...

STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE REGION TODAY...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL PRODUCE A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION...LEADING TO GUSTY WINDS.

RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 45-55 PERCENT RANGE IN VALLEYS...AND
55-70 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE RECOVERING TO 90-100 PERCENT WITH SOME DEW
FORMATION POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK. RH VALUES SHOULD DROP TO 40-50
PERCENT IN VALLEYS...AND 50-70 PERCENT ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
FOR TUE AFTERNOON.

W TO NW WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15-25 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE AT TIMES TODAY. W/NW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO
5-15 MPH LATE TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVED ACROSS THE REGION LAST EVENING...WITH ONLY
SCATTERED...LIGHT RAINFALL AMTS OF GENERALLY UNDER ONE TENTH OF AN
INCH...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS OCCURRED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY. THESE AMTS WILL HAVE
NEGLIGIBLE EFFECTS ON AREA RIVERS/STREAMS.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/GJM
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM








000
FXUS61 KALY 221121
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
721 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER AND BRISK CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR TODAY IN THE
WAKE OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR MIDWEEK WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 640 AM EDT...CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO FILL BACK IN ACROSS
VALLEY AREAS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NW CT AND PORTIONS OF THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY WHERE SKIES REMAIN GENERALLY CLEAR. SOME SPRINKLES
ARE NOTED IN RADAR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY AND CATSKILLS...WITH A FEW SPRINKLES
ALSO NOTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION.

OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/COLD
POOL...AND ANOTHER SFC TROUGH PIVOT EAST TOWARD THE REGION...WE
EXPECT THE COVERAGE OF CLOUDS TO CONTINUE EXPANDING. IN
ADDITION...SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES POSSIBLY DEVELOPING FURTHER S AND E INTO THE
MOHAWK AND UPPER HUDSON VALLEYS...AND SOUTHERN VT SHORTLY AFTER
DAYBREAK. SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES SHOULD BECOME MORE CONFINED TO
HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN VT FOR THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH PASSAGE.

SO...ALTHOUGH A FEW BREAKS OF SUN MAY OCCUR RIGHT AROUND
SUNRISE IN VALLEY AREAS...WE DO EXPECT A TREND TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY. IN THE WAKE
OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT
ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE COULD ALLOW FOR MORE BREAKS TO DEVELOP IN VALLEY
AREAS FOR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THERE REMAINS AT LEAST A CHANCE
THAT MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES BECOMES TRAPPED BENEATH A
DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. FOR NOW...HAVE INDICATED SKIES
BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY DURING THE AFTERNOON IN VALLEYS...WHILE
REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...BUT TRENDS WILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED IN CASE THE CLOUDS REMAIN MORE PERSISTENT.

WINDS WILL BE QUITE BRISK FROM THE W TO NW...WITH SOME GUSTS OF
25-35 MPH POSSIBLE...ESP IN AREAS WITHIN AND ADJACENT TO THE
MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

TEMPS WILL BE QUITE TRICKY...AS STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
WOULD SUPPORT TEMPS TO HOLD STEADY...OR SLOWLY FALL FROM THIS
MORNING/S LEVELS. HOWEVER...WILL INDICATE A SMALL RISE IN TEMPS
DURING THE LATE MORNING/MIDDAY HOURS...BEFORE SLOWLY FALLING THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE INDICATED A GENERAL BLEND OF THE MAV/MET
MOS...WITH MAXES GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 60
IN MOST VALLEYS...EXCEPT FOR MID/UPPER 60S ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS IN NW CT...WHERE MORE SUNSHINE...AND
DOWNSLOPING OFF THE CATSKILLS SHOULD PROMOTE ADDITIONAL WARMING.
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...MOST MAX TEMPS WILL ONLY REACH THE
50S...WITH PERHAPS SOME 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF SOME WIND...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF AT
LEAST PATCHY CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT THE FROST POTENTIAL FOR
TONIGHT...WITH MOST MIN TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S.

TUESDAY...A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING SE ON THE
WEST SIDE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY ALLOW FOR A
PERIOD OF CLOUDS DURING TUE AFTERNOON...ESP FOR AREAS N AND W OF
ALBANY. A FEW SPRINKLES WILL EVEN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH
65-70 IN VALLEYS AND 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

TUE NT-WED NT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS GRADUALLY MODERATING. EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO
FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S BOTH NIGHTS...WITH DAYTIME MAX
TEMPS WED REACHING THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THERE COULD BE SOME
VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING LATE EACH NIGHT...AND WITH VERY LIGHT
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS...COULD TAKE SOME TIME TO BURN OFF WED AM IN
THE DEEPEST VALLEYS...WITH SOME LOW STRATUS POSSIBLY LINGERING IN
SOME AREAS UNTIL MID TO LATE MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
QUIET AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THERE ARE
SOME HINTS OF A COASTAL SYSTEM THURSDAY...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
SOME CLOUDS PERHAPS APPROACHING THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT...BUT NOT MUCH. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER RIDGING
GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES ALSO SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS THURSDAY
SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. HIGHS FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...AROUND 70 IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
TEMPERATURES WARMING ONE OR TWO MORE DEGREES SATURDAY AND AGAIN
SUNDAY...WHEN HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 80...COOLER IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLDER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS
SPREADING INTO EASTERN NY AND CEILINGS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE MVFR
RANGE JUST WEST OF THE TAF SITES. THERE COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES
THIS MORNING AS WELL...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE VCSH ANYWHERE.
SO... THESE LOWER CEILINGS SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS OUR REGION...FOR
INTERVALS OF MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH ABOUT 15Z. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY LIFT TO ABOVE 3000 FEET LATE THIS MORNING AND THEN
GRADUALLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE.  BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
ONLY SCATTERED CLOUDS...WITH SKC DURING THE EVENING AND NIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO AROUND 15KT BY MID
MORNING. WINDS SHOULD BE GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...GUSTING TO
AROUND 25 KT AT TIMES...THEN DIMINISHING SLOWLY THROUGH TOMORROW
EVENING. WINDS SHOULD JUST BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY MIDNIGHT AND
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
     GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25-35 MPH TODAY...

STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE REGION TODAY...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL PRODUCE A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION...LEADING TO GUSTY WINDS.

RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 45-55 PERCENT RANGE IN VALLEYS...AND
55-70 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE RECOVERING TO 90-100 PERCENT WITH SOME DEW
FORMATION POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK. RH VALUES SHOULD DROP TO 40-50
PERCENT IN VALLEYS...AND 50-70 PERCENT ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
FOR TUE AFTERNOON.

W TO NW WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15-25 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE AT TIMES TODAY. W/NW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO
5-15 MPH LATE TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVED ACROSS THE REGION LAST EVENING...WITH ONLY
SCATTERED...LIGHT RAINFALL AMTS OF GENERALLY UNDER ONE TENTH OF AN
INCH...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS OCCURRED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY. THESE AMTS WILL HAVE
NEGLIGIBLE EFFECTS ON AREA RIVERS/STREAMS.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/GJM
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM








000
FXUS61 KOKX 221102
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
702 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES EAST OF THE AREA TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF
THE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO REFLECT LATEST
OBSERVATIONS.

OTHERWISE...THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE CWA THIS
MORNING AS THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY PIVOTS EAST THROUGH THE
DAY. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE THEN QUICKLY BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST TODAY.

WITH THE SUBSIDENCE BUILDING IN...SKIES WILL CLEAR WITH JUST
SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. CAA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
COUPLED WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS THE HIGH APPROACHES
WILL LEND TO GUSTY WINDS TODAY...20-25MPH AT THE HIGHEST THIS
AFTERNOON.

VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH A GENERAL
MAV/MET/GMOS BLEND USED. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE AREA AND A
COOL NW FLOW...HIGHS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY AT ATLANTIC OCEAN
FACING BEACHES MAINLY DUE TO A SWELL FROM AN OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...LOW TEMPS WILL
BE ABLE TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S FOR INTERIOR LOCATIONS AND
RANGE TO THE LOWER 50S NEAR THE NYC METRO...QUITE BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

EVEN WITH THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA ON
TUESDAY...LITTLE MOISTURE IS IN PLACE TO PROVIDE FOR MANY CLOUDS.
EXPECTING A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND LIGHT NW-N FLOW.

MAV/MET/GMOS BLEND AGAIN WORKED WELL FOR TEMPS. HIGHS ON TUESDAY
WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...EVENTUALLY LIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. THIS HIGH WILL PROVIDE THE REGION WITH FAIR AND DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS STARTED TO HINT AT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG
ISLAND THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW...THINKING THE HIGH
WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
LOW SOUTH OF THE REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF BACK OVER THE REGION FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK...WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH
THURSDAY...THEN RISE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST
THROUGH TONIGHT.

WNW WINDS INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY AFTER DAYBREAK WITH ISOLD
GUSTS TO 30KT. WINDS GENERALLY WILL WAVER BETWEEN 290 AND 320 MAG
DURING THE DAY. WINDS AND GUSTS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS
EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT NW AFTER MIDNIGHT.

VFR TODAY WITH SCT 3.5-4.5 KFT CU THIS AFTERNOON...LOCALLY BKN AT
WESTERN TERMINALS. CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AVERAGING JUST
LEFT OF 310 MAG EARLY THIS MORNING...VEER TO THE RIGHT OF
310 MAG BY MID MORNING...THEN BACK TO LEFT OF 310 MAG THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF TROUGH APPROACH.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AVERAGING JUST
LEFT OF 310 MAG EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN VEER TO THE RIGHT OF
310 MAG BY MID MORNING AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AVERAGING JUST
LEFT OF 310 MAG EARLY THIS MORNING...VEER TO THE RIGHT OF
310 MAG BY MID MORNING...THEN BACK TO LEFT OF 310 MAG THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF TROUGH APPROACH.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUE THROUGH FRI...
.TUE...VFR WITH LGT WINDS.
.WED...MVFR CIGS AROUND 3000FT POSSIBLE. ENE WINDS 5-15KT.
.THU AND FRI...VFR. MODERATE NE/N FLOW POSSIBLE. LOW PROB OF MVFR
CIGS IN LIGHT RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN TERMINALS...DEPENDING ON HOW
FAR NORTH COASTAL LOW TRACKS.

&&

.MARINE...
WAVEWATCH IS CURRENTLY 2-3 FT TOO HIGH WITH BOTH WAVE HEIGHTS AND
SWELL...WITH THE SWELL PEAKING THROUGH ABOUT 12Z TODAY. SEAS WILL
STILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH OCEAN SEAS REACHING
6-8FT BY 18Z AS AN OFFSHORE LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHEAST AWAY
FROM THE AREA. WIND ALSO INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND A COLD
FRONT AND GUSTS TO 25KT ARE EXPECTED ON THE OCEAN WATERS. NO
CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXISTING SCA IN PLACE. OCCASIONAL GUSTS
TO 25 KT ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON THE OTHER WATERS BUT CONFIDENCE TOO
LOW TO ISSUE A SCA.

SEAS DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH WINDS AND WAVES FALLING BELOW
SCA CRITERIA BY TUESDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE
POSSIBILITY OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING WELL
SOUTH OF OUR WATERS AND PASSING SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY TO THE INTENSITY AND TRACK OF THE LOW.
GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION...WHICH SHOULD BUILD SEAS TO
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. HAVE UNDERCUT WAVEWATCH BY A LITTLE DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY OF THIS EVENT.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/LN
NEAR TERM...BC/LN
SHORT TERM...LN
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...BC/LN
HYDROLOGY...LN






000
FXUS61 KOKX 221102
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
702 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES EAST OF THE AREA TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF
THE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO REFLECT LATEST
OBSERVATIONS.

OTHERWISE...THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE CWA THIS
MORNING AS THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY PIVOTS EAST THROUGH THE
DAY. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE THEN QUICKLY BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST TODAY.

WITH THE SUBSIDENCE BUILDING IN...SKIES WILL CLEAR WITH JUST
SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. CAA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
COUPLED WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS THE HIGH APPROACHES
WILL LEND TO GUSTY WINDS TODAY...20-25MPH AT THE HIGHEST THIS
AFTERNOON.

VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH A GENERAL
MAV/MET/GMOS BLEND USED. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE AREA AND A
COOL NW FLOW...HIGHS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY AT ATLANTIC OCEAN
FACING BEACHES MAINLY DUE TO A SWELL FROM AN OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...LOW TEMPS WILL
BE ABLE TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S FOR INTERIOR LOCATIONS AND
RANGE TO THE LOWER 50S NEAR THE NYC METRO...QUITE BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

EVEN WITH THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA ON
TUESDAY...LITTLE MOISTURE IS IN PLACE TO PROVIDE FOR MANY CLOUDS.
EXPECTING A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND LIGHT NW-N FLOW.

MAV/MET/GMOS BLEND AGAIN WORKED WELL FOR TEMPS. HIGHS ON TUESDAY
WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...EVENTUALLY LIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. THIS HIGH WILL PROVIDE THE REGION WITH FAIR AND DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS STARTED TO HINT AT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG
ISLAND THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW...THINKING THE HIGH
WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
LOW SOUTH OF THE REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF BACK OVER THE REGION FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK...WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH
THURSDAY...THEN RISE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST
THROUGH TONIGHT.

WNW WINDS INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY AFTER DAYBREAK WITH ISOLD
GUSTS TO 30KT. WINDS GENERALLY WILL WAVER BETWEEN 290 AND 320 MAG
DURING THE DAY. WINDS AND GUSTS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS
EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT NW AFTER MIDNIGHT.

VFR TODAY WITH SCT 3.5-4.5 KFT CU THIS AFTERNOON...LOCALLY BKN AT
WESTERN TERMINALS. CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AVERAGING JUST
LEFT OF 310 MAG EARLY THIS MORNING...VEER TO THE RIGHT OF
310 MAG BY MID MORNING...THEN BACK TO LEFT OF 310 MAG THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF TROUGH APPROACH.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AVERAGING JUST
LEFT OF 310 MAG EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN VEER TO THE RIGHT OF
310 MAG BY MID MORNING AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AVERAGING JUST
LEFT OF 310 MAG EARLY THIS MORNING...VEER TO THE RIGHT OF
310 MAG BY MID MORNING...THEN BACK TO LEFT OF 310 MAG THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF TROUGH APPROACH.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUE THROUGH FRI...
.TUE...VFR WITH LGT WINDS.
.WED...MVFR CIGS AROUND 3000FT POSSIBLE. ENE WINDS 5-15KT.
.THU AND FRI...VFR. MODERATE NE/N FLOW POSSIBLE. LOW PROB OF MVFR
CIGS IN LIGHT RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN TERMINALS...DEPENDING ON HOW
FAR NORTH COASTAL LOW TRACKS.

&&

.MARINE...
WAVEWATCH IS CURRENTLY 2-3 FT TOO HIGH WITH BOTH WAVE HEIGHTS AND
SWELL...WITH THE SWELL PEAKING THROUGH ABOUT 12Z TODAY. SEAS WILL
STILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH OCEAN SEAS REACHING
6-8FT BY 18Z AS AN OFFSHORE LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHEAST AWAY
FROM THE AREA. WIND ALSO INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND A COLD
FRONT AND GUSTS TO 25KT ARE EXPECTED ON THE OCEAN WATERS. NO
CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXISTING SCA IN PLACE. OCCASIONAL GUSTS
TO 25 KT ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON THE OTHER WATERS BUT CONFIDENCE TOO
LOW TO ISSUE A SCA.

SEAS DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH WINDS AND WAVES FALLING BELOW
SCA CRITERIA BY TUESDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE
POSSIBILITY OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING WELL
SOUTH OF OUR WATERS AND PASSING SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY TO THE INTENSITY AND TRACK OF THE LOW.
GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION...WHICH SHOULD BUILD SEAS TO
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. HAVE UNDERCUT WAVEWATCH BY A LITTLE DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY OF THIS EVENT.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/LN
NEAR TERM...BC/LN
SHORT TERM...LN
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...BC/LN
HYDROLOGY...LN







000
FXUS61 KOKX 221047
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
647 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES EAST OF THE AREA TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF
THE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO REFLECT LATEST
OBSERVATIONS.

OTHERWISE...THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE CWA THIS
MORNING AS THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY PIVOTS EAST THROUGH THE
DAY. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE THEN QUICKLY BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST TODAY.

WITH THE SUBSIDENCE BUILDING IN...SKIES WILL CLEAR WITH JUST
SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. CAA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
COUPLED WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS THE HIGH APPROACHES
WILL LEND TO GUSTY WINDS TODAY...20-25MPH AT THE HIGHEST THIS
AFTERNOON.

VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH A GENERAL
MAV/MET/GMOS BLEND USED. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE AREA AND A
COOL NW FLOW...HIGHS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY AT ATLANTIC OCEAN
FACING BEACHES MAINLY DUE TO A SWELL FROM AN OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...LOW TEMPS WILL
BE ABLE TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S FOR INTERIOR LOCATIONS AND
RANGE TO THE LOWER 50S NEAR THE NYC METRO...QUITE BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

EVEN WITH THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA ON
TUESDAY...LITTLE MOISTURE IS IN PLACE TO PROVIDE FOR MANY CLOUDS.
EXPECTING A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND LIGHT NW-N FLOW.

MAV/MET/GMOS BLEND AGAIN WORKED WELL FOR TEMPS. HIGHS ON TUESDAY
WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...EVENTUALLY LIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. THIS HIGH WILL PROVIDE THE REGION WITH FAIR AND DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS STARTED TO HINT AT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG
ISLAND THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW...THINKING THE HIGH
WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
LOW SOUTH OF THE REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF BACK OVER THE REGION FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK...WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH
THURSDAY...THEN RISE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST
THROUGH TONIGHT.

WNW WINDS INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY AFTER DAYBREAK WITH ISOLD
GUSTS TO 30KT. WINDS GENERALLY WILL WAVER BETWEEN 290 AND 320 MAG
DURING THE DAY. WINDS AND GUSTS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS
EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT NW AFTER MIDNIGHT.

VFR TODAY WITH SCT 3.5-4.5 KFT CU THIS AFTERNOON...LOCALLY BKN AT
WESTERN TERMINALS. CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AVERAGING JUST
LEFT OF 310 MAG EARLY THIS MORNING...VEER TO THE RIGHT OF
310 MAG BY MID MORNING...THEN BACK TO LEFT OF 310 MAG THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF TROUGH APPROACH.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AVERAGING JUST
LEFT OF 310 MAG EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN VEER TO THE RIGHT OF
310 MAG BY MID MORNING AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AVERAGING JUST
LEFT OF 310 MAG EARLY THIS MORNING...VEER TO THE RIGHT OF
310 MAG BY MID MORNING...THEN BACK TO LEFT OF 310 MAG THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF TROUGH APPROACH.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUE THROUGH THU...
.TUE...VFR WITH LGT WINDS.
.WED...MVFR CIGS AROUND 3000FT POSSIBLE. ENE WINDS 5-15KT.
.THU...VFR WITH LGT NE FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
WAVEWATCH IS CURRENTLY 2-3 FT TOO HIGH WITH BOTH WAVE HEIGHTS AND
SWELL...WITH THE SWELL PEAKING THROUGH ABOUT 12Z TODAY. SEAS WILL
STILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH OCEAN SEAS REACHING
6-8FT BY 18Z AS AN OFFSHORE LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHEAST AWAY
FROM THE AREA. WIND ALSO INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND A COLD
FRONT AND GUSTS TO 25KT ARE EXPECTED ON THE OCEAN WATERS. NO
CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXISTING SCA IN PLACE. OCCASIONAL GUSTS
TO 25 KT ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON THE OTHER WATERS BUT CONFIDENCE TOO
LOW TO ISSUE A SCA.

SEAS DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH WINDS AND WAVES FALLING BELOW
SCA CRITERIA BY TUESDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE
POSSIBILITY OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING WELL
SOUTH OF OUR WATERS AND PASSING SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY TO THE INTENSITY AND TRACK OF THE LOW.
GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION...WHICH SHOULD BUILD SEAS TO
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. HAVE UNDERCUT WAVEWATCH BY A LITTLE DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY OF THIS EVENT.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/LN
NEAR TERM...BC/LN
SHORT TERM...LN
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...BC/LN
HYDROLOGY...LN







000
FXUS61 KOKX 221047
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
647 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES EAST OF THE AREA TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF
THE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO REFLECT LATEST
OBSERVATIONS.

OTHERWISE...THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE CWA THIS
MORNING AS THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY PIVOTS EAST THROUGH THE
DAY. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE THEN QUICKLY BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST TODAY.

WITH THE SUBSIDENCE BUILDING IN...SKIES WILL CLEAR WITH JUST
SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. CAA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
COUPLED WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS THE HIGH APPROACHES
WILL LEND TO GUSTY WINDS TODAY...20-25MPH AT THE HIGHEST THIS
AFTERNOON.

VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH A GENERAL
MAV/MET/GMOS BLEND USED. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE AREA AND A
COOL NW FLOW...HIGHS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY AT ATLANTIC OCEAN
FACING BEACHES MAINLY DUE TO A SWELL FROM AN OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...LOW TEMPS WILL
BE ABLE TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S FOR INTERIOR LOCATIONS AND
RANGE TO THE LOWER 50S NEAR THE NYC METRO...QUITE BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

EVEN WITH THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA ON
TUESDAY...LITTLE MOISTURE IS IN PLACE TO PROVIDE FOR MANY CLOUDS.
EXPECTING A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND LIGHT NW-N FLOW.

MAV/MET/GMOS BLEND AGAIN WORKED WELL FOR TEMPS. HIGHS ON TUESDAY
WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...EVENTUALLY LIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. THIS HIGH WILL PROVIDE THE REGION WITH FAIR AND DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS STARTED TO HINT AT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG
ISLAND THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW...THINKING THE HIGH
WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
LOW SOUTH OF THE REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF BACK OVER THE REGION FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK...WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH
THURSDAY...THEN RISE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST
THROUGH TONIGHT.

WNW WINDS INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY AFTER DAYBREAK WITH ISOLD
GUSTS TO 30KT. WINDS GENERALLY WILL WAVER BETWEEN 290 AND 320 MAG
DURING THE DAY. WINDS AND GUSTS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS
EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT NW AFTER MIDNIGHT.

VFR TODAY WITH SCT 3.5-4.5 KFT CU THIS AFTERNOON...LOCALLY BKN AT
WESTERN TERMINALS. CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AVERAGING JUST
LEFT OF 310 MAG EARLY THIS MORNING...VEER TO THE RIGHT OF
310 MAG BY MID MORNING...THEN BACK TO LEFT OF 310 MAG THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF TROUGH APPROACH.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AVERAGING JUST
LEFT OF 310 MAG EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN VEER TO THE RIGHT OF
310 MAG BY MID MORNING AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AVERAGING JUST
LEFT OF 310 MAG EARLY THIS MORNING...VEER TO THE RIGHT OF
310 MAG BY MID MORNING...THEN BACK TO LEFT OF 310 MAG THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF TROUGH APPROACH.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUE THROUGH THU...
.TUE...VFR WITH LGT WINDS.
.WED...MVFR CIGS AROUND 3000FT POSSIBLE. ENE WINDS 5-15KT.
.THU...VFR WITH LGT NE FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
WAVEWATCH IS CURRENTLY 2-3 FT TOO HIGH WITH BOTH WAVE HEIGHTS AND
SWELL...WITH THE SWELL PEAKING THROUGH ABOUT 12Z TODAY. SEAS WILL
STILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH OCEAN SEAS REACHING
6-8FT BY 18Z AS AN OFFSHORE LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHEAST AWAY
FROM THE AREA. WIND ALSO INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND A COLD
FRONT AND GUSTS TO 25KT ARE EXPECTED ON THE OCEAN WATERS. NO
CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXISTING SCA IN PLACE. OCCASIONAL GUSTS
TO 25 KT ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON THE OTHER WATERS BUT CONFIDENCE TOO
LOW TO ISSUE A SCA.

SEAS DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH WINDS AND WAVES FALLING BELOW
SCA CRITERIA BY TUESDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE
POSSIBILITY OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING WELL
SOUTH OF OUR WATERS AND PASSING SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY TO THE INTENSITY AND TRACK OF THE LOW.
GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION...WHICH SHOULD BUILD SEAS TO
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. HAVE UNDERCUT WAVEWATCH BY A LITTLE DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY OF THIS EVENT.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/LN
NEAR TERM...BC/LN
SHORT TERM...LN
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...BC/LN
HYDROLOGY...LN







000
FXUS61 KOKX 221047
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
647 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES EAST OF THE AREA TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF
THE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO REFLECT LATEST
OBSERVATIONS.

OTHERWISE...THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE CWA THIS
MORNING AS THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY PIVOTS EAST THROUGH THE
DAY. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE THEN QUICKLY BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST TODAY.

WITH THE SUBSIDENCE BUILDING IN...SKIES WILL CLEAR WITH JUST
SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. CAA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
COUPLED WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS THE HIGH APPROACHES
WILL LEND TO GUSTY WINDS TODAY...20-25MPH AT THE HIGHEST THIS
AFTERNOON.

VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH A GENERAL
MAV/MET/GMOS BLEND USED. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE AREA AND A
COOL NW FLOW...HIGHS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY AT ATLANTIC OCEAN
FACING BEACHES MAINLY DUE TO A SWELL FROM AN OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...LOW TEMPS WILL
BE ABLE TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S FOR INTERIOR LOCATIONS AND
RANGE TO THE LOWER 50S NEAR THE NYC METRO...QUITE BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

EVEN WITH THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA ON
TUESDAY...LITTLE MOISTURE IS IN PLACE TO PROVIDE FOR MANY CLOUDS.
EXPECTING A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND LIGHT NW-N FLOW.

MAV/MET/GMOS BLEND AGAIN WORKED WELL FOR TEMPS. HIGHS ON TUESDAY
WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...EVENTUALLY LIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. THIS HIGH WILL PROVIDE THE REGION WITH FAIR AND DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS STARTED TO HINT AT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG
ISLAND THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW...THINKING THE HIGH
WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
LOW SOUTH OF THE REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF BACK OVER THE REGION FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK...WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH
THURSDAY...THEN RISE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST
THROUGH TONIGHT.

WNW WINDS INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY AFTER DAYBREAK WITH ISOLD
GUSTS TO 30KT. WINDS GENERALLY WILL WAVER BETWEEN 290 AND 320 MAG
DURING THE DAY. WINDS AND GUSTS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS
EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT NW AFTER MIDNIGHT.

VFR TODAY WITH SCT 3.5-4.5 KFT CU THIS AFTERNOON...LOCALLY BKN AT
WESTERN TERMINALS. CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AVERAGING JUST
LEFT OF 310 MAG EARLY THIS MORNING...VEER TO THE RIGHT OF
310 MAG BY MID MORNING...THEN BACK TO LEFT OF 310 MAG THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF TROUGH APPROACH.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AVERAGING JUST
LEFT OF 310 MAG EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN VEER TO THE RIGHT OF
310 MAG BY MID MORNING AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AVERAGING JUST
LEFT OF 310 MAG EARLY THIS MORNING...VEER TO THE RIGHT OF
310 MAG BY MID MORNING...THEN BACK TO LEFT OF 310 MAG THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF TROUGH APPROACH.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUE THROUGH THU...
.TUE...VFR WITH LGT WINDS.
.WED...MVFR CIGS AROUND 3000FT POSSIBLE. ENE WINDS 5-15KT.
.THU...VFR WITH LGT NE FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
WAVEWATCH IS CURRENTLY 2-3 FT TOO HIGH WITH BOTH WAVE HEIGHTS AND
SWELL...WITH THE SWELL PEAKING THROUGH ABOUT 12Z TODAY. SEAS WILL
STILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH OCEAN SEAS REACHING
6-8FT BY 18Z AS AN OFFSHORE LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHEAST AWAY
FROM THE AREA. WIND ALSO INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND A COLD
FRONT AND GUSTS TO 25KT ARE EXPECTED ON THE OCEAN WATERS. NO
CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXISTING SCA IN PLACE. OCCASIONAL GUSTS
TO 25 KT ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON THE OTHER WATERS BUT CONFIDENCE TOO
LOW TO ISSUE A SCA.

SEAS DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH WINDS AND WAVES FALLING BELOW
SCA CRITERIA BY TUESDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE
POSSIBILITY OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING WELL
SOUTH OF OUR WATERS AND PASSING SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY TO THE INTENSITY AND TRACK OF THE LOW.
GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION...WHICH SHOULD BUILD SEAS TO
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. HAVE UNDERCUT WAVEWATCH BY A LITTLE DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY OF THIS EVENT.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/LN
NEAR TERM...BC/LN
SHORT TERM...LN
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...BC/LN
HYDROLOGY...LN







000
FXUS61 KOKX 221047
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
647 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES EAST OF THE AREA TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF
THE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO REFLECT LATEST
OBSERVATIONS.

OTHERWISE...THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE CWA THIS
MORNING AS THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY PIVOTS EAST THROUGH THE
DAY. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE THEN QUICKLY BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST TODAY.

WITH THE SUBSIDENCE BUILDING IN...SKIES WILL CLEAR WITH JUST
SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. CAA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
COUPLED WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS THE HIGH APPROACHES
WILL LEND TO GUSTY WINDS TODAY...20-25MPH AT THE HIGHEST THIS
AFTERNOON.

VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH A GENERAL
MAV/MET/GMOS BLEND USED. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE AREA AND A
COOL NW FLOW...HIGHS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY AT ATLANTIC OCEAN
FACING BEACHES MAINLY DUE TO A SWELL FROM AN OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...LOW TEMPS WILL
BE ABLE TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S FOR INTERIOR LOCATIONS AND
RANGE TO THE LOWER 50S NEAR THE NYC METRO...QUITE BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

EVEN WITH THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA ON
TUESDAY...LITTLE MOISTURE IS IN PLACE TO PROVIDE FOR MANY CLOUDS.
EXPECTING A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND LIGHT NW-N FLOW.

MAV/MET/GMOS BLEND AGAIN WORKED WELL FOR TEMPS. HIGHS ON TUESDAY
WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...EVENTUALLY LIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. THIS HIGH WILL PROVIDE THE REGION WITH FAIR AND DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS STARTED TO HINT AT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG
ISLAND THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW...THINKING THE HIGH
WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
LOW SOUTH OF THE REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF BACK OVER THE REGION FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK...WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH
THURSDAY...THEN RISE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST
THROUGH TONIGHT.

WNW WINDS INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY AFTER DAYBREAK WITH ISOLD
GUSTS TO 30KT. WINDS GENERALLY WILL WAVER BETWEEN 290 AND 320 MAG
DURING THE DAY. WINDS AND GUSTS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS
EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT NW AFTER MIDNIGHT.

VFR TODAY WITH SCT 3.5-4.5 KFT CU THIS AFTERNOON...LOCALLY BKN AT
WESTERN TERMINALS. CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AVERAGING JUST
LEFT OF 310 MAG EARLY THIS MORNING...VEER TO THE RIGHT OF
310 MAG BY MID MORNING...THEN BACK TO LEFT OF 310 MAG THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF TROUGH APPROACH.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AVERAGING JUST
LEFT OF 310 MAG EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN VEER TO THE RIGHT OF
310 MAG BY MID MORNING AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AVERAGING JUST
LEFT OF 310 MAG EARLY THIS MORNING...VEER TO THE RIGHT OF
310 MAG BY MID MORNING...THEN BACK TO LEFT OF 310 MAG THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF TROUGH APPROACH.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUE THROUGH THU...
.TUE...VFR WITH LGT WINDS.
.WED...MVFR CIGS AROUND 3000FT POSSIBLE. ENE WINDS 5-15KT.
.THU...VFR WITH LGT NE FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
WAVEWATCH IS CURRENTLY 2-3 FT TOO HIGH WITH BOTH WAVE HEIGHTS AND
SWELL...WITH THE SWELL PEAKING THROUGH ABOUT 12Z TODAY. SEAS WILL
STILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH OCEAN SEAS REACHING
6-8FT BY 18Z AS AN OFFSHORE LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHEAST AWAY
FROM THE AREA. WIND ALSO INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND A COLD
FRONT AND GUSTS TO 25KT ARE EXPECTED ON THE OCEAN WATERS. NO
CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXISTING SCA IN PLACE. OCCASIONAL GUSTS
TO 25 KT ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON THE OTHER WATERS BUT CONFIDENCE TOO
LOW TO ISSUE A SCA.

SEAS DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH WINDS AND WAVES FALLING BELOW
SCA CRITERIA BY TUESDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE
POSSIBILITY OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING WELL
SOUTH OF OUR WATERS AND PASSING SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY TO THE INTENSITY AND TRACK OF THE LOW.
GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION...WHICH SHOULD BUILD SEAS TO
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. HAVE UNDERCUT WAVEWATCH BY A LITTLE DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY OF THIS EVENT.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/LN
NEAR TERM...BC/LN
SHORT TERM...LN
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...BC/LN
HYDROLOGY...LN







000
FXUS61 KBOX 221046
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
646 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRIER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS OVERSPREADS THE REGION TODAY BEHIND
A DEPARTING COLD FRONT THIS MORNING...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS. THIS AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE REGION MUCH
OF THE WEEK YIELDING MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS. BY WEEKS END TEMPERATURES
BEGIN TO WARM WITH POSSIBLE RECORD WARMTH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

7 AM UPDATE...

QUITE A CHANGE IN AIRMASS AS A COLD FRONT EXITS THE NEAR SHORE
WATERS AT SUNRISE. LOW CLOUDS OVER CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET HAVE NOW
MOVED OFFSHORE AND IS REPLACED BY WEST WINDS ADVECTING IN MUCH
DRIER AIR WITH DEW PTS IN THE 50S ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. AS
THE BLYR WARMS AND DEEPENS LATER THIS MORNING GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THIS AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS FORECAST CAPTURES
THESE DETAILS NICELY SO NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE. EARLIER
DISCUSSION BELOW.

=====================================================================

USING A BLEND OF SFC OBS AND MSAS...IT APPEARS THAT SFC COLD
FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM THE LOW CT VALLEY IN SRN CT
THROUGH ABOUT AFN. IT HAS SLOWED SOMEWHAT AS IT BEGINS TO PARALLEL
THE UPPER LVL FLOW GIVEN THE UPPER SHORTWAVE IS NOW E OF THE
HUDSON VALLEY. THEREFORE...ALTHOUGH IT WILL CONTINUE IT/S
PROGRESSION TO THE E...IT MAY TAKE UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK TO FULLY
MOVE OFFSHORE OF THE CAPE/ISLANDS ESPECIALLY. IN SPITE OF
THIS...MUCH OF THE EARLY MORNING FOG HAS NOW DISSIPATED THANKS TO
WESTERLY ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT TO THE FLOW. THIS W FLOW ALSO
CONTINUES TO LEAD TO DOWNSLOPING AND DIMINISHING OF WHAT IS LEFT
OF THE -SHRA ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...WHICH IS UNLIKELY TO MAKE
IT MUCH FURTHER E OF THE WORCESTER HILLS AND MONADNOCKS.

AS THE FRONT SHIFTS OFFSHORE...AND UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE SLIDES INTO
NRN NEW ENGLAND...A ROBUST SFC PRES GRADIENT IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP.
THEREFORE...AS SKIES CLEAR AND MIXING COMMENCES...EXPECT A BREEZY
DAY TODAY WITH WIND GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH NOT UNCOMMON OUT OF THE
WNW. COLD ADVECTION CU IS ALSO LIKELY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...AND NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION A SPRINKLE IS ABLE TO BE
SQUEEZED OUT AS WELL...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN TO REFLECT THIS IN POPS. REGARDING
HIGHS...H85 TEMPS ARE DROPPING RAPIDLY...AND MAY NOT BE MIXED TO
FULLY. SO SUSPECT HIGHS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LOOK GOOD
GIVEN AT PEAK MIXING...H85 TEMPS AVERAGE ABOUT +8C. DWPTS DROP
INTO THE 40S...SO AT THE VERY LEAST...MUCH LESS HUMID TODAY.

A BUILDING OFFSHORE SWELL TODAY...MAY YIELD HIGH SURF PARTICULARLY
AT SOUTH COASTAL BEACHES TODAY. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE HIGH
SURF ADVISORY FOR THE TIME BEING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
COOL DRY AIRMASS SETTLES IN PLACE AS NOSE OF STRONG 1035 HPA HIGH
PRES MOVES IN FROM THE W. IN SPITE OF THIS MORE AUTUMN-LIKE
AIRMASS...MINS MAY NOT BE ABLE TO REALIZE THEIR FULL POTENTIAL.
THE COMBINATION OF LINGERING DIURNAL CU EARLY...AND SFC PRES
GRADIENT TAKING SOME TIME TO FULLY SLACKEN MAY LIMIT RADIATIONAL
COOLING. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S-MID 40S ARE LIKELY...WITH MINS
CLOSER TO 50 IN THE URBAN SPOTS. THE COLDEST SPOTS ARE LIKELY IN
NW MA AND SW NH. IT/S VERY CLOSE TO FROST THRESHOLDS...BUT WITH
THE MITIGATING FACTORS MENTIONED...NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ISSUE
FROST ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED THROUGH
THE DAY.

TUE...
HIGH PRES BEGINS TO CREST ACROSS THE REGION ON TUE.
THEREFORE...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED. H85 TEMPS HOVER
AROUND +6C...BUT MAY NOT BE FULLY REALIZED UNDER STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THEREFORE...KEEPING HIGHS GENERALLY A DEGREE
OR TWO BELOW NORMAL. MAINLY THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* THE 1ST WEEK OF AUTUMN WILL FEATURE MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS
  FOLLOWED BY POTENTIAL NEAR RECORD WARMTH NEXT WEEKEND

* HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD

     SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL EVALUATION...

FAIRLY STRONG TELECONNECTION FOR RIDGING HERE IN THE EAST THIS
COMING WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND AS +PNA TRENDS TOWARD NEUTRAL ALONG
WITH NAO AND AO TRENDING OR REMAINING POSITIVE. DURING THIS TIME THE
LARGE SCALE FLOW EVOLVES INTO A WEST COAST TROUGH WITH A DOWNSTREAM
RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES NORTHWARD TOWARD JAMES BAY.  THIS IS A
WARM AND DRY SETUP FOR NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER GIVEN THE CHAOTIC NATURE
OF THE ATMOSPHERE THERE ARE ALWAYS WILDCARDS AT THIS TIME RANGE AND
THIS CASE IS NO EXCEPTION.

THE FIRST WILDCARD WILL BE THE DOWNSTREAM MEAN TROUGH OVER THE
MARITIMES. WILL HAVE TO WATCH IF ANY NORTHERN STREAM IMPULSES
CLIMBING OVER THE GREAT LAKES RIDGE AND THEN INTO THE MARITIMES
DRAGS ANY BACKDOOR FRONTS INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WOULD YIELD
COOLER TEMPS ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN MA. THE OTHER WILDCARD WILL BE
MOISTURE AND JET ENERGY THAT BREAKS OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES
FROM THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD TODAY.
SOME OF THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE HAS THIS MOISTURE/INVERTED TROUGH
CREEPING NORTHWARD DURING THIS WEEK AND GETTING CLOSE TO NEW ENGLAND
WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT BEFORE THEN GETTING SHUNTED OUT TO SEA FRI.

OTHERWISE DESPITE AUTUMN ARRIVING LATER TODAY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
DELIVERS ONE OR MORE DAYS OF ANOMALOUS WARMTH TO THE REGION NEXT
WEEKEND. THE 12Z ECENS AND 00Z GEFS HAVE 850 TEMPS WARMING TO +14C
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS TIME.

     DAILY SENSIBLE WEATHER DETAILS...

TUESDAY NIGHT THRU THU...

DRY AIRMASS OVER NEW ENGLAND ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AS SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA WILL YIELD IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. THIS WILL RESULT IN CHILLY NIGHTS WITH MOST LOCATIONS
DIPPING INTO THE 40S OUTSIDE THE URBAN AREAS AND AWAY FROM THE
COASTLINE. HOWEVER AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL RECOVER NICELY TO 65-70.
GIVEN PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE HIGH WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH LOCAL
SEABREEZES DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS WILL STRAY AWAY FROM A MODEL BLEND AND FOLLOW THE
COOLER MOS GUIDANCE AND EVEN SHAVE OFF A FEW MORE DEGS IN THE
TYPICALLY COOLER LOCATIONS /I.E. NORWOOD-TAUNTON-MARTHAS VINEYARD-
ETC/. AS MENTIONED ABOVE WILL HAVE TO WATCH MOISTURE AND INVERTED
TROUGH CREEPING UP THE COAST WED NIGHT THRU THU NIGHT. 00Z GEFS HAS
TRENDED NORTH WITH LOW PROBS OF 0.05 QPF ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. THIS
SUPPORTS THE FARTHER NORTH SOLUTION OF THE OPERATIONAL 00Z GFS. IN
ADDITION A MODEL BLEND OF ALL DATASETS BRINGS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO
THE SOUTH COAST WITH A MODEL BLEND OF QPF BRINGING MEASURABLE RAIN
INTO NORTHERN CT-RI TO SOUTHERN SUBURBS OF BOSTON.


FRI/SAT AND SUN...

SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS WESTWARD FROM OVER NEW ENGLAND TO ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS YIELDS A WARMER WNW LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW INTO NEW
ENGLAND. THIS SHOULD YIELD TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S FRI AND THEN
PUSHING 80 OR SO NEXT WEEKEND. THE RECORDS FOR THE DAY INCLUDE

     9/27...

BOS...86...1998
BDL...88...1998
PVD...86...1998
ORH...85...1933

GIVEN THE TIME RANGE HERE ALONG WITH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WILL
FOLLOW A MODEL BLEND. HUMIDITY SHOULD BE IN THE COMFORTABLE RANGE
GIVEN WNW LOW LEVEL LAND TRAJECTORY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

7 AM UPDATE...

COLD FRONT NOW OFFSHORE WITH WEST WINDS AT ALL TERMINALS AND VFR
CONDITIONS. WEST WINDS GUSTS UP TO 25 KT TODAY ALONG WITH VFR
CONDITIONS. 06Z TAFS CAPTURE THESE DETAILS SO NO MAJOR CHANGES
WITH UPCOMING 12Z TAFS. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

===================================================================

TODAY INTO TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR...ALTHOUGH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MAY LINGER AT ACK THROUGH MID
MORNING. WINDS MAINLY WNW TODAY...GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KT AT
TIMES THEN DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MAINLY VFR FROM NOW ON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MAINLY VFR FROM NOW ON.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR EACH DAY. EXCEPTION WILL BE A LOW RISK OF
MVFR IN SHOWERS SOUTH COAST INCLUDING THE ISLANDS FROM WED NIGHT
THRU THU NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SLOWLY BUILDING SWELL MAY APPROACH 10 FT WELL OFFSHORE...BUT
INCREASE TO 5-8FT CLOSER TO THE THE SRN NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH
THE DAY...AS W-NW WINDS REACH ABOUT 25 KT. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED AND WILL CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT...DROPPING CLOSE TO SHORE THIS EVENING AS WINDS
DIMINISH. HOWEVER...THE SWELL MAY TAKE UNTIL EARLY TUE MORNING TO
COMPLETELY DIMINISH ON THE S AND SE WATERS.

TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
AFTER THE LEFTOVER SWELL SUBSIDES...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF QUIET
BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRES BEGINS TO CREST OVER THE
WATERS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

LIGHT WINDS THRU THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRES REMAINS OVER OR NEAR THE
REGION. DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY TOO. POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WILL BE
RAIN SHOWERS WED NIGHT THRU THU NIGHT AS MOISTURE ADVECTS UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ020>024.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ230-236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY



000
FXUS61 KBOX 221046
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
646 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRIER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS OVERSPREADS THE REGION TODAY BEHIND
A DEPARTING COLD FRONT THIS MORNING...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS. THIS AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE REGION MUCH
OF THE WEEK YIELDING MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS. BY WEEKS END TEMPERATURES
BEGIN TO WARM WITH POSSIBLE RECORD WARMTH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

7 AM UPDATE...

QUITE A CHANGE IN AIRMASS AS A COLD FRONT EXITS THE NEAR SHORE
WATERS AT SUNRISE. LOW CLOUDS OVER CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET HAVE NOW
MOVED OFFSHORE AND IS REPLACED BY WEST WINDS ADVECTING IN MUCH
DRIER AIR WITH DEW PTS IN THE 50S ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. AS
THE BLYR WARMS AND DEEPENS LATER THIS MORNING GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THIS AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS FORECAST CAPTURES
THESE DETAILS NICELY SO NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE. EARLIER
DISCUSSION BELOW.

=====================================================================

USING A BLEND OF SFC OBS AND MSAS...IT APPEARS THAT SFC COLD
FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM THE LOW CT VALLEY IN SRN CT
THROUGH ABOUT AFN. IT HAS SLOWED SOMEWHAT AS IT BEGINS TO PARALLEL
THE UPPER LVL FLOW GIVEN THE UPPER SHORTWAVE IS NOW E OF THE
HUDSON VALLEY. THEREFORE...ALTHOUGH IT WILL CONTINUE IT/S
PROGRESSION TO THE E...IT MAY TAKE UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK TO FULLY
MOVE OFFSHORE OF THE CAPE/ISLANDS ESPECIALLY. IN SPITE OF
THIS...MUCH OF THE EARLY MORNING FOG HAS NOW DISSIPATED THANKS TO
WESTERLY ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT TO THE FLOW. THIS W FLOW ALSO
CONTINUES TO LEAD TO DOWNSLOPING AND DIMINISHING OF WHAT IS LEFT
OF THE -SHRA ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...WHICH IS UNLIKELY TO MAKE
IT MUCH FURTHER E OF THE WORCESTER HILLS AND MONADNOCKS.

AS THE FRONT SHIFTS OFFSHORE...AND UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE SLIDES INTO
NRN NEW ENGLAND...A ROBUST SFC PRES GRADIENT IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP.
THEREFORE...AS SKIES CLEAR AND MIXING COMMENCES...EXPECT A BREEZY
DAY TODAY WITH WIND GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH NOT UNCOMMON OUT OF THE
WNW. COLD ADVECTION CU IS ALSO LIKELY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...AND NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION A SPRINKLE IS ABLE TO BE
SQUEEZED OUT AS WELL...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN TO REFLECT THIS IN POPS. REGARDING
HIGHS...H85 TEMPS ARE DROPPING RAPIDLY...AND MAY NOT BE MIXED TO
FULLY. SO SUSPECT HIGHS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LOOK GOOD
GIVEN AT PEAK MIXING...H85 TEMPS AVERAGE ABOUT +8C. DWPTS DROP
INTO THE 40S...SO AT THE VERY LEAST...MUCH LESS HUMID TODAY.

A BUILDING OFFSHORE SWELL TODAY...MAY YIELD HIGH SURF PARTICULARLY
AT SOUTH COASTAL BEACHES TODAY. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE HIGH
SURF ADVISORY FOR THE TIME BEING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
COOL DRY AIRMASS SETTLES IN PLACE AS NOSE OF STRONG 1035 HPA HIGH
PRES MOVES IN FROM THE W. IN SPITE OF THIS MORE AUTUMN-LIKE
AIRMASS...MINS MAY NOT BE ABLE TO REALIZE THEIR FULL POTENTIAL.
THE COMBINATION OF LINGERING DIURNAL CU EARLY...AND SFC PRES
GRADIENT TAKING SOME TIME TO FULLY SLACKEN MAY LIMIT RADIATIONAL
COOLING. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S-MID 40S ARE LIKELY...WITH MINS
CLOSER TO 50 IN THE URBAN SPOTS. THE COLDEST SPOTS ARE LIKELY IN
NW MA AND SW NH. IT/S VERY CLOSE TO FROST THRESHOLDS...BUT WITH
THE MITIGATING FACTORS MENTIONED...NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ISSUE
FROST ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED THROUGH
THE DAY.

TUE...
HIGH PRES BEGINS TO CREST ACROSS THE REGION ON TUE.
THEREFORE...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED. H85 TEMPS HOVER
AROUND +6C...BUT MAY NOT BE FULLY REALIZED UNDER STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THEREFORE...KEEPING HIGHS GENERALLY A DEGREE
OR TWO BELOW NORMAL. MAINLY THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* THE 1ST WEEK OF AUTUMN WILL FEATURE MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS
  FOLLOWED BY POTENTIAL NEAR RECORD WARMTH NEXT WEEKEND

* HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD

     SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL EVALUATION...

FAIRLY STRONG TELECONNECTION FOR RIDGING HERE IN THE EAST THIS
COMING WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND AS +PNA TRENDS TOWARD NEUTRAL ALONG
WITH NAO AND AO TRENDING OR REMAINING POSITIVE. DURING THIS TIME THE
LARGE SCALE FLOW EVOLVES INTO A WEST COAST TROUGH WITH A DOWNSTREAM
RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES NORTHWARD TOWARD JAMES BAY.  THIS IS A
WARM AND DRY SETUP FOR NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER GIVEN THE CHAOTIC NATURE
OF THE ATMOSPHERE THERE ARE ALWAYS WILDCARDS AT THIS TIME RANGE AND
THIS CASE IS NO EXCEPTION.

THE FIRST WILDCARD WILL BE THE DOWNSTREAM MEAN TROUGH OVER THE
MARITIMES. WILL HAVE TO WATCH IF ANY NORTHERN STREAM IMPULSES
CLIMBING OVER THE GREAT LAKES RIDGE AND THEN INTO THE MARITIMES
DRAGS ANY BACKDOOR FRONTS INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WOULD YIELD
COOLER TEMPS ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN MA. THE OTHER WILDCARD WILL BE
MOISTURE AND JET ENERGY THAT BREAKS OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES
FROM THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD TODAY.
SOME OF THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE HAS THIS MOISTURE/INVERTED TROUGH
CREEPING NORTHWARD DURING THIS WEEK AND GETTING CLOSE TO NEW ENGLAND
WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT BEFORE THEN GETTING SHUNTED OUT TO SEA FRI.

OTHERWISE DESPITE AUTUMN ARRIVING LATER TODAY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
DELIVERS ONE OR MORE DAYS OF ANOMALOUS WARMTH TO THE REGION NEXT
WEEKEND. THE 12Z ECENS AND 00Z GEFS HAVE 850 TEMPS WARMING TO +14C
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS TIME.

     DAILY SENSIBLE WEATHER DETAILS...

TUESDAY NIGHT THRU THU...

DRY AIRMASS OVER NEW ENGLAND ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AS SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA WILL YIELD IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. THIS WILL RESULT IN CHILLY NIGHTS WITH MOST LOCATIONS
DIPPING INTO THE 40S OUTSIDE THE URBAN AREAS AND AWAY FROM THE
COASTLINE. HOWEVER AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL RECOVER NICELY TO 65-70.
GIVEN PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE HIGH WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH LOCAL
SEABREEZES DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS WILL STRAY AWAY FROM A MODEL BLEND AND FOLLOW THE
COOLER MOS GUIDANCE AND EVEN SHAVE OFF A FEW MORE DEGS IN THE
TYPICALLY COOLER LOCATIONS /I.E. NORWOOD-TAUNTON-MARTHAS VINEYARD-
ETC/. AS MENTIONED ABOVE WILL HAVE TO WATCH MOISTURE AND INVERTED
TROUGH CREEPING UP THE COAST WED NIGHT THRU THU NIGHT. 00Z GEFS HAS
TRENDED NORTH WITH LOW PROBS OF 0.05 QPF ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. THIS
SUPPORTS THE FARTHER NORTH SOLUTION OF THE OPERATIONAL 00Z GFS. IN
ADDITION A MODEL BLEND OF ALL DATASETS BRINGS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO
THE SOUTH COAST WITH A MODEL BLEND OF QPF BRINGING MEASURABLE RAIN
INTO NORTHERN CT-RI TO SOUTHERN SUBURBS OF BOSTON.


FRI/SAT AND SUN...

SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS WESTWARD FROM OVER NEW ENGLAND TO ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS YIELDS A WARMER WNW LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW INTO NEW
ENGLAND. THIS SHOULD YIELD TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S FRI AND THEN
PUSHING 80 OR SO NEXT WEEKEND. THE RECORDS FOR THE DAY INCLUDE

     9/27...

BOS...86...1998
BDL...88...1998
PVD...86...1998
ORH...85...1933

GIVEN THE TIME RANGE HERE ALONG WITH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WILL
FOLLOW A MODEL BLEND. HUMIDITY SHOULD BE IN THE COMFORTABLE RANGE
GIVEN WNW LOW LEVEL LAND TRAJECTORY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

7 AM UPDATE...

COLD FRONT NOW OFFSHORE WITH WEST WINDS AT ALL TERMINALS AND VFR
CONDITIONS. WEST WINDS GUSTS UP TO 25 KT TODAY ALONG WITH VFR
CONDITIONS. 06Z TAFS CAPTURE THESE DETAILS SO NO MAJOR CHANGES
WITH UPCOMING 12Z TAFS. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

===================================================================

TODAY INTO TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR...ALTHOUGH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MAY LINGER AT ACK THROUGH MID
MORNING. WINDS MAINLY WNW TODAY...GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KT AT
TIMES THEN DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MAINLY VFR FROM NOW ON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MAINLY VFR FROM NOW ON.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR EACH DAY. EXCEPTION WILL BE A LOW RISK OF
MVFR IN SHOWERS SOUTH COAST INCLUDING THE ISLANDS FROM WED NIGHT
THRU THU NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SLOWLY BUILDING SWELL MAY APPROACH 10 FT WELL OFFSHORE...BUT
INCREASE TO 5-8FT CLOSER TO THE THE SRN NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH
THE DAY...AS W-NW WINDS REACH ABOUT 25 KT. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED AND WILL CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT...DROPPING CLOSE TO SHORE THIS EVENING AS WINDS
DIMINISH. HOWEVER...THE SWELL MAY TAKE UNTIL EARLY TUE MORNING TO
COMPLETELY DIMINISH ON THE S AND SE WATERS.

TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
AFTER THE LEFTOVER SWELL SUBSIDES...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF QUIET
BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRES BEGINS TO CREST OVER THE
WATERS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

LIGHT WINDS THRU THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRES REMAINS OVER OR NEAR THE
REGION. DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY TOO. POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WILL BE
RAIN SHOWERS WED NIGHT THRU THU NIGHT AS MOISTURE ADVECTS UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ020>024.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ230-236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KALY 221045
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
645 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER AND BRISK CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR TODAY IN THE
WAKE OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR MIDWEEK WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 640 AM EDT...CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO FILL BACK IN ACROSS
VALLEY AREAS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NW CT AND PORTIONS OF THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY WHERE SKIES REMAIN GENERALLY CLEAR. SOME SPRINKLES
ARE NOTED IN RADAR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY AND CATSKILLS...WITH A FEW SPRINKLES
ALSO NOTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION.

OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/COLD
POOL...AND ANOTHER SFC TROUGH PIVOT EAST TOWARD THE REGION...WE
EXPECT THE COVERAGE OF CLOUDS TO CONTINUE EXPANDING. IN
ADDITION...SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES POSSIBLY DEVELOPING FURTHER S AND E INTO THE
MOHAWK AND UPPER HUDSON VALLEYS...AND SOUTHERN VT SHORTLY AFTER
DAYBREAK. SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES SHOULD BECOME MORE CONFINED TO
HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN VT FOR THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH PASSAGE.

SO...ALTHOUGH A FEW BREAKS OF SUN MAY OCCUR RIGHT AROUND
SUNRISE IN VALLEY AREAS...WE DO EXPECT A TREND TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY. IN THE WAKE
OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT
ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE COULD ALLOW FOR MORE BREAKS TO DEVELOP IN VALLEY
AREAS FOR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THERE REMAINS AT LEAST A CHANCE
THAT MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES BECOMES TRAPPED BENEATH A
DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. FOR NOW...HAVE INDICATED SKIES
BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY DURING THE AFTERNOON IN VALLEYS...WHILE
REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...BUT TRENDS WILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED IN CASE THE CLOUDS REMAIN MORE PERSISTENT.

WINDS WILL BE QUITE BRISK FROM THE W TO NW...WITH SOME GUSTS OF
25-35 MPH POSSIBLE...ESP IN AREAS WITHIN AND ADJACENT TO THE
MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

TEMPS WILL BE QUITE TRICKY...AS STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
WOULD SUPPORT TEMPS TO HOLD STEADY...OR SLOWLY FALL FROM THIS
MORNING/S LEVELS. HOWEVER...WILL INDICATE A SMALL RISE IN TEMPS
DURING THE LATE MORNING/MIDDAY HOURS...BEFORE SLOWLY FALLING THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE INDICATED A GENERAL BLEND OF THE MAV/MET
MOS...WITH MAXES GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 60
IN MOST VALLEYS...EXCEPT FOR MID/UPPER 60S ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS IN NW CT...WHERE MORE SUNSHINE...AND
DOWNSLOPING OFF THE CATSKILLS SHOULD PROMOTE ADDITIONAL WARMING.
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...MOST MAX TEMPS WILL ONLY REACH THE
50S...WITH PERHAPS SOME 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF SOME WIND...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF AT
LEAST PATCHY CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT THE FROST POTENTIAL FOR
TONIGHT...WITH MOST MIN TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S.

TUESDAY...A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING SE ON THE
WEST SIDE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY ALLOW FOR A
PERIOD OF CLOUDS DURING TUE AFTERNOON...ESP FOR AREAS N AND W OF
ALBANY. A FEW SPRINKLES WILL EVEN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH
65-70 IN VALLEYS AND 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

TUE NT-WED NT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS GRADUALLY MODERATING. EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO
FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S BOTH NIGHTS...WITH DAYTIME MAX
TEMPS WED REACHING THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THERE COULD BE SOME
VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING LATE EACH NIGHT...AND WITH VERY LIGHT
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS...COULD TAKE SOME TIME TO BURN OFF WED AM IN
THE DEEPEST VALLEYS...WITH SOME LOW STRATUS POSSIBLY LINGERING IN
SOME AREAS UNTIL MID TO LATE MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
QUIET AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THERE ARE
SOME HINTS OF A COASTAL SYSTEM THURSDAY...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
SOME CLOUDS PERHAPS APPROACHING THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT...BUT NOT MUCH. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER RIDGING
GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES ALSO SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS THURSDAY
SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. HIGHS FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...AROUND 70 IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
TEMPERATURES WARMING ONE OR TWO MORE DEGREES SATURDAY AND AGAIN
SUNDAY...WHEN HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 80...COOLER IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM KPOU TO KPSF WELL AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT MOVING EAST QUICKLY...SO VCSH THERE THROUGH ABOUT 09Z-10Z.
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WITHIN THE BAND OF SHOWERS ARE VFR. THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE COLDER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS STILL IN
WESTERN/CENTRAL NY AND CEILINGS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE MVFR RANGE
THERE. SO...AFTER 09Z-10Z...THESE LOWER CEILINGS SHOULD SPREAD
ACROSS OUR REGION...FOR INTERVALS OF MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH ABOUT
13Z-14Z.

COLD FRONT EXITS THROUGH THE MORNING AND WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE...WHILE CEILINGS RISE BACK INTO THE VFR RANGE. CEILINGS
SHOULD REMAIN IN THE VFR RANGE MUCH OF TOMORROW AND COVERAGE OF
CLOUDS SHOULD DECREASE FROM VARIABLE BROKEN TO SCATTERED THROUGH THE
DAY.

WINDS FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST AT 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST BY DAYBREAK AND INCREASE
TO AROUND 15KT BY MID MORNING. WINDS SHOULD BE GUSTY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KT AT TIMES...THEN DIMINISHING
SLOWLY THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25-35 MPH TODAY...

STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE REGION TODAY...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL PRODUCE A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION...LEADING TO GUSTY WINDS.

RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 45-55 PERCENT RANGE IN VALLEYS...AND
55-70 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE RECOVERING TO 90-100 PERCENT WITH SOME DEW
FORMATION POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK. RH VALUES SHOULD DROP TO 40-50
PERCENT IN VALLEYS...AND 50-70 PERCENT ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
FOR TUE AFTERNOON.

W TO NW WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15-25 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE AT TIMES TODAY. W/NW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO
5-15 MPH LATE TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVED ACROSS THE REGION LAST EVENING...WITH ONLY
SCATTERED...LIGHT RAINFALL AMTS OF GENERALLY UNDER ONE TENTH OF AN
INCH...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS OCCURRED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY. THESE AMTS WILL HAVE
NEGLIGIBLE EFFECTS ON AREA RIVERS/STREAMS.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/GJM
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM







000
FXUS61 KALY 221045
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
645 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER AND BRISK CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR TODAY IN THE
WAKE OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR MIDWEEK WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 640 AM EDT...CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO FILL BACK IN ACROSS
VALLEY AREAS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NW CT AND PORTIONS OF THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY WHERE SKIES REMAIN GENERALLY CLEAR. SOME SPRINKLES
ARE NOTED IN RADAR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY AND CATSKILLS...WITH A FEW SPRINKLES
ALSO NOTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION.

OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/COLD
POOL...AND ANOTHER SFC TROUGH PIVOT EAST TOWARD THE REGION...WE
EXPECT THE COVERAGE OF CLOUDS TO CONTINUE EXPANDING. IN
ADDITION...SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES POSSIBLY DEVELOPING FURTHER S AND E INTO THE
MOHAWK AND UPPER HUDSON VALLEYS...AND SOUTHERN VT SHORTLY AFTER
DAYBREAK. SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES SHOULD BECOME MORE CONFINED TO
HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN VT FOR THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH PASSAGE.

SO...ALTHOUGH A FEW BREAKS OF SUN MAY OCCUR RIGHT AROUND
SUNRISE IN VALLEY AREAS...WE DO EXPECT A TREND TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY. IN THE WAKE
OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT
ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE COULD ALLOW FOR MORE BREAKS TO DEVELOP IN VALLEY
AREAS FOR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THERE REMAINS AT LEAST A CHANCE
THAT MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES BECOMES TRAPPED BENEATH A
DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. FOR NOW...HAVE INDICATED SKIES
BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY DURING THE AFTERNOON IN VALLEYS...WHILE
REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...BUT TRENDS WILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED IN CASE THE CLOUDS REMAIN MORE PERSISTENT.

WINDS WILL BE QUITE BRISK FROM THE W TO NW...WITH SOME GUSTS OF
25-35 MPH POSSIBLE...ESP IN AREAS WITHIN AND ADJACENT TO THE
MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

TEMPS WILL BE QUITE TRICKY...AS STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
WOULD SUPPORT TEMPS TO HOLD STEADY...OR SLOWLY FALL FROM THIS
MORNING/S LEVELS. HOWEVER...WILL INDICATE A SMALL RISE IN TEMPS
DURING THE LATE MORNING/MIDDAY HOURS...BEFORE SLOWLY FALLING THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE INDICATED A GENERAL BLEND OF THE MAV/MET
MOS...WITH MAXES GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 60
IN MOST VALLEYS...EXCEPT FOR MID/UPPER 60S ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS IN NW CT...WHERE MORE SUNSHINE...AND
DOWNSLOPING OFF THE CATSKILLS SHOULD PROMOTE ADDITIONAL WARMING.
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...MOST MAX TEMPS WILL ONLY REACH THE
50S...WITH PERHAPS SOME 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF SOME WIND...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF AT
LEAST PATCHY CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT THE FROST POTENTIAL FOR
TONIGHT...WITH MOST MIN TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S.

TUESDAY...A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING SE ON THE
WEST SIDE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY ALLOW FOR A
PERIOD OF CLOUDS DURING TUE AFTERNOON...ESP FOR AREAS N AND W OF
ALBANY. A FEW SPRINKLES WILL EVEN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH
65-70 IN VALLEYS AND 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

TUE NT-WED NT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS GRADUALLY MODERATING. EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO
FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S BOTH NIGHTS...WITH DAYTIME MAX
TEMPS WED REACHING THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THERE COULD BE SOME
VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING LATE EACH NIGHT...AND WITH VERY LIGHT
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS...COULD TAKE SOME TIME TO BURN OFF WED AM IN
THE DEEPEST VALLEYS...WITH SOME LOW STRATUS POSSIBLY LINGERING IN
SOME AREAS UNTIL MID TO LATE MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
QUIET AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THERE ARE
SOME HINTS OF A COASTAL SYSTEM THURSDAY...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
SOME CLOUDS PERHAPS APPROACHING THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT...BUT NOT MUCH. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER RIDGING
GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES ALSO SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS THURSDAY
SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. HIGHS FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...AROUND 70 IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
TEMPERATURES WARMING ONE OR TWO MORE DEGREES SATURDAY AND AGAIN
SUNDAY...WHEN HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 80...COOLER IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM KPOU TO KPSF WELL AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT MOVING EAST QUICKLY...SO VCSH THERE THROUGH ABOUT 09Z-10Z.
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WITHIN THE BAND OF SHOWERS ARE VFR. THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE COLDER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS STILL IN
WESTERN/CENTRAL NY AND CEILINGS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE MVFR RANGE
THERE. SO...AFTER 09Z-10Z...THESE LOWER CEILINGS SHOULD SPREAD
ACROSS OUR REGION...FOR INTERVALS OF MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH ABOUT
13Z-14Z.

COLD FRONT EXITS THROUGH THE MORNING AND WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE...WHILE CEILINGS RISE BACK INTO THE VFR RANGE. CEILINGS
SHOULD REMAIN IN THE VFR RANGE MUCH OF TOMORROW AND COVERAGE OF
CLOUDS SHOULD DECREASE FROM VARIABLE BROKEN TO SCATTERED THROUGH THE
DAY.

WINDS FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST AT 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST BY DAYBREAK AND INCREASE
TO AROUND 15KT BY MID MORNING. WINDS SHOULD BE GUSTY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KT AT TIMES...THEN DIMINISHING
SLOWLY THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25-35 MPH TODAY...

STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE REGION TODAY...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL PRODUCE A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION...LEADING TO GUSTY WINDS.

RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 45-55 PERCENT RANGE IN VALLEYS...AND
55-70 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE RECOVERING TO 90-100 PERCENT WITH SOME DEW
FORMATION POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK. RH VALUES SHOULD DROP TO 40-50
PERCENT IN VALLEYS...AND 50-70 PERCENT ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
FOR TUE AFTERNOON.

W TO NW WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15-25 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE AT TIMES TODAY. W/NW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO
5-15 MPH LATE TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVED ACROSS THE REGION LAST EVENING...WITH ONLY
SCATTERED...LIGHT RAINFALL AMTS OF GENERALLY UNDER ONE TENTH OF AN
INCH...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS OCCURRED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY. THESE AMTS WILL HAVE
NEGLIGIBLE EFFECTS ON AREA RIVERS/STREAMS.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/GJM
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM








000
FXUS61 KOKX 221026
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
626 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES EAST OF THE AREA TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF
THE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING AS THE DEEP
UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY PIVOTS EAST THROUGH THE DAY. ANY LINGERING
SHOWERS AND PATCHES OF FOG THIS MORNING WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE BY
SUNRISE AND THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
THEN QUICKLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TODAY.

WITH THE SUBSIDENCE BUILDING IN...SKIES WILL CLEAR WITH JUST
SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. CAA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
COUPLED WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS THE HIGH APPROACHES
WILL LEND TO GUSTY WINDS TODAY...20-25MPH AT THE HIGHEST THIS
AFTERNOON.

VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH A GENERAL
MAV/MET/GMOS BLEND USED. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE AREA AND A
COOL NW FLOW...HIGHS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY AT ATLANTIC OCEAN
FACING BEACHES MAINLY DUE TO A SWELL FROM AN OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...LOW TEMPS WILL
BE ABLE TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S FOR INTERIOR LOCATIONS AND
RANGE TO THE LOWER 50S NEAR THE NYC METRO...QUITE BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

EVEN WITH THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA ON
TUESDAY...LITTLE MOISTURE IS IN PLACE TO PROVIDE FOR MANY CLOUDS.
EXPECTING A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND LIGHT NW-N FLOW.

MAV/MET/GMOS BLEND AGAIN WORKED WELL FOR TEMPS. HIGHS ON TUESDAY
WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...EVENTUALLY LIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. THIS HIGH WILL PROVIDE THE REGION WITH FAIR AND DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS STARTED TO HINT AT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG
ISLAND THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW...THINKING THE HIGH
WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
LOW SOUTH OF THE REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF BACK OVER THE REGION FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK...WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH
THURSDAY...THEN RISE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST
THROUGH TONIGHT.

WNW WINDS INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY AFTER DAYBREAK WITH ISOLD
GUSTS TO 30KT. WINDS GENERALLY WILL WAVER BETWEEN 290 AND 320 MAG
DURING THE DAY. WINDS AND GUSTS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS
EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT NW AFTER MIDNIGHT.

VFR TODAY WITH SCT 3.5-4.5 KFT CU THIS AFTERNOON...LOCALLY BKN AT
WESTERN TERMINALS. CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AVERAGING JUST
LEFT OF 310 MAG EARLY THIS MORNING...VEER TO THE RIGHT OF
310 MAG BY MID MORNING...THEN BACK TO LEFT OF 310 MAG THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF TROUGH APPROACH.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AVERAGING JUST
LEFT OF 310 MAG EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN VEER TO THE RIGHT OF
310 MAG BY MID MORNING AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AVERAGING JUST
LEFT OF 310 MAG EARLY THIS MORNING...VEER TO THE RIGHT OF
310 MAG BY MID MORNING...THEN BACK TO LEFT OF 310 MAG THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF TROUGH APPROACH.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUE THROUGH THU...
.TUE...VFR WITH LGT WINDS.
.WED...MVFR CIGS AROUND 3000FT POSSIBLE. ENE WINDS 5-15KT.
.THU...VFR WITH LGT NE FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
WAVEWATCH IS CURRENTLY 2-3 FT TOO HIGH WITH BOTH WAVE HEIGHTS AND
SWELL...WITH THE SWELL PEAKING THROUGH ABOUT 12Z TODAY. SEAS WILL
STILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH OCEAN SEAS REACHING
6-8FT BY 18Z AS AN OFFSHORE LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHEAST AWAY
FROM THE AREA. WIND ALSO INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND A COLD
FRONT AND GUSTS TO 25KT ARE EXPECTED ON THE OCEAN WATERS. NO
CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXISTING SCA IN PLACE. OCCASIONAL GUSTS
TO 25 KT ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON THE OTHER WATERS BUT CONFIDENCE TOO
LOW TO ISSUE A SCA.

SEAS DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH WINDS AND WAVES FALLING BELOW
SCA CRITERIA BY TUESDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE
POSSIBILITY OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING WELL
SOUTH OF OUR WATERS AND PASSING SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY TO THE INTENSITY AND TRACK OF THE LOW.
GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION...WHICH SHOULD BUILD SEAS TO
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. HAVE UNDERCUT WAVEWATCH BY A LITTLE DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY OF THIS EVENT.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/LN
NEAR TERM...LN
SHORT TERM...LN
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...BC/LN
HYDROLOGY...LN






000
FXUS61 KOKX 221026
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
626 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES EAST OF THE AREA TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF
THE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING AS THE DEEP
UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY PIVOTS EAST THROUGH THE DAY. ANY LINGERING
SHOWERS AND PATCHES OF FOG THIS MORNING WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE BY
SUNRISE AND THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
THEN QUICKLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TODAY.

WITH THE SUBSIDENCE BUILDING IN...SKIES WILL CLEAR WITH JUST
SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. CAA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
COUPLED WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS THE HIGH APPROACHES
WILL LEND TO GUSTY WINDS TODAY...20-25MPH AT THE HIGHEST THIS
AFTERNOON.

VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH A GENERAL
MAV/MET/GMOS BLEND USED. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE AREA AND A
COOL NW FLOW...HIGHS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY AT ATLANTIC OCEAN
FACING BEACHES MAINLY DUE TO A SWELL FROM AN OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...LOW TEMPS WILL
BE ABLE TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S FOR INTERIOR LOCATIONS AND
RANGE TO THE LOWER 50S NEAR THE NYC METRO...QUITE BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

EVEN WITH THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA ON
TUESDAY...LITTLE MOISTURE IS IN PLACE TO PROVIDE FOR MANY CLOUDS.
EXPECTING A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND LIGHT NW-N FLOW.

MAV/MET/GMOS BLEND AGAIN WORKED WELL FOR TEMPS. HIGHS ON TUESDAY
WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...EVENTUALLY LIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. THIS HIGH WILL PROVIDE THE REGION WITH FAIR AND DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS STARTED TO HINT AT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG
ISLAND THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW...THINKING THE HIGH
WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
LOW SOUTH OF THE REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF BACK OVER THE REGION FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK...WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH
THURSDAY...THEN RISE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST
THROUGH TONIGHT.

WNW WINDS INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY AFTER DAYBREAK WITH ISOLD
GUSTS TO 30KT. WINDS GENERALLY WILL WAVER BETWEEN 290 AND 320 MAG
DURING THE DAY. WINDS AND GUSTS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS
EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT NW AFTER MIDNIGHT.

VFR TODAY WITH SCT 3.5-4.5 KFT CU THIS AFTERNOON...LOCALLY BKN AT
WESTERN TERMINALS. CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AVERAGING JUST
LEFT OF 310 MAG EARLY THIS MORNING...VEER TO THE RIGHT OF
310 MAG BY MID MORNING...THEN BACK TO LEFT OF 310 MAG THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF TROUGH APPROACH.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AVERAGING JUST
LEFT OF 310 MAG EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN VEER TO THE RIGHT OF
310 MAG BY MID MORNING AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AVERAGING JUST
LEFT OF 310 MAG EARLY THIS MORNING...VEER TO THE RIGHT OF
310 MAG BY MID MORNING...THEN BACK TO LEFT OF 310 MAG THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF TROUGH APPROACH.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUE THROUGH THU...
.TUE...VFR WITH LGT WINDS.
.WED...MVFR CIGS AROUND 3000FT POSSIBLE. ENE WINDS 5-15KT.
.THU...VFR WITH LGT NE FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
WAVEWATCH IS CURRENTLY 2-3 FT TOO HIGH WITH BOTH WAVE HEIGHTS AND
SWELL...WITH THE SWELL PEAKING THROUGH ABOUT 12Z TODAY. SEAS WILL
STILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH OCEAN SEAS REACHING
6-8FT BY 18Z AS AN OFFSHORE LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHEAST AWAY
FROM THE AREA. WIND ALSO INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND A COLD
FRONT AND GUSTS TO 25KT ARE EXPECTED ON THE OCEAN WATERS. NO
CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXISTING SCA IN PLACE. OCCASIONAL GUSTS
TO 25 KT ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON THE OTHER WATERS BUT CONFIDENCE TOO
LOW TO ISSUE A SCA.

SEAS DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH WINDS AND WAVES FALLING BELOW
SCA CRITERIA BY TUESDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE
POSSIBILITY OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING WELL
SOUTH OF OUR WATERS AND PASSING SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY TO THE INTENSITY AND TRACK OF THE LOW.
GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION...WHICH SHOULD BUILD SEAS TO
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. HAVE UNDERCUT WAVEWATCH BY A LITTLE DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY OF THIS EVENT.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/LN
NEAR TERM...LN
SHORT TERM...LN
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...BC/LN
HYDROLOGY...LN







000
FXUS61 KALY 220849
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
449 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER AND BRISK CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR TODAY IN THE
WAKE OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR MIDWEEK WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT...SKIES HAVE BECOME CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY FOR
MOST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AS WELL AS SW MA AND NW CT.
THIS CLEARING IS ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT...AND ALSO
A SURGE OF DOWNSLOPING W/SW LOW LEVEL WINDS. CLOUDS REMAIN
PREVALENT ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK
VALLEY...SOUTHERN VT/NW MA...AND ARE INCREASING ONCE AGAIN ACROSS
THE SE CATSKILLS.

OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/COLD
POOL...AND ANOTHER SFC TROUGH PIVOT EAST TOWARD THE REGION...WE
EXPECT THE COVERAGE OF CLOUDS TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN. IN
ADDITION...SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD REDEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLY
DEVELOPING FURTHER S AND E INTO THE MOHAWK AND UPPER HUDSON
VALLEYS...AND SOUTHERN VT BY OR JUST AFTER DAYBREAK. SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES SHOULD BECOME MORE CONFINED TO HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN VT FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

SO...ALTHOUGH A FEW BREAKS OF SUN MAY OCCUR RIGHT AROUND
SUNRISE IN VALLEY AREAS...WE DO EXPECT A TREND TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY. IN THE WAKE
OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT
ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE COULD ALLOW FOR MORE BREAKS TO DEVELOP IN VALLEY
AREAS FOR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THERE REMAINS AT LEAST A CHANCE
THAT MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES BECOMES TRAPPED BENEATH A
DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. FOR NOW...HAVE INDICATED SKIES
BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY DURING THE AFTERNOON IN VALLEYS...WHILE
REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...BUT TRENDS WILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED IN CASE THE CLOUDS REMAIN MORE PERSISTENT.

WINDS WILL BE QUITE BRISK FROM THE W TO NW...WITH SOME GUSTS OF
25-35 MPH POSSIBLE...ESP IN AREAS WITHIN AND ADJACENT TO THE
MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

TEMPS WILL BE QUITE TRICKY...AS STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
WOULD SUPPORT TEMPS TO HOLD STEADY...OR SLOWLY FALL FROM THIS
MORNING/S LEVELS. HOWEVER...WILL INDICATE A SMALL RISE IN TEMPS
DURING THE LATE MORNING/MIDDAY HOURS...BEFORE SLOWLY FALLING THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE INDICATED A GENERAL BLEND OF THE MAV/MET
MOS...WITH MAXES GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 60
IN MOST VALLEYS...EXCEPT FOR MID/UPPER 60S ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS IN NW CT...WHERE MORE SUNSHINE...AND
DOWNSLOPING OFF THE CATSKILLS SHOULD PROMOTE ADDITIONAL WARMING.
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...MOST MAX TEMPS WILL ONLY REACH THE
50S...WITH PERHAPS SOME 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF SOME WIND...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF AT
LEAST PATCHY CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT THE FROST POTENTIAL FOR
TONIGHT...WITH MOST MIN TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S.

TUESDAY...A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING SE ON THE
WEST SIDE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY ALLOW FOR A
PERIOD OF CLOUDS DURING TUE AFTERNOON...ESP FOR AREAS N AND W OF
ALBANY. A FEW SPRINKLES WILL EVEN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH
65-70 IN VALLEYS AND 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

TUE NT-WED NT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS GRADUALLY MODERATING. EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO
FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S BOTH NIGHTS...WITH DAYTIME MAX
TEMPS WED REACHING THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THERE COULD BE SOME
VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING LATE EACH NIGHT...AND WITH VERY LIGHT
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS...COULD TAKE SOME TIME TO BURN OFF WED AM IN
THE DEEPEST VALLEYS...WITH SOME LOW STRATUS POSSIBLY LINGERING IN
SOME AREAS UNTIL MID TO LATE MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
QUIET AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THERE ARE
SOME HINTS OF A COASTAL SYSTEM THURSDAY...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
SOME CLOUDS PERHAPS APPROACHING THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT...BUT NOT MUCH. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER RIDGING
GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES ALSO SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS THURSDAY
SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. HIGHS FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...AROUND 70 IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
TEMPERATURES WARMING ONE OR TWO MORE DEGREES SATURDAY AND AGAIN
SUNDAY...WHEN HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 80...COOLER IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM KPOU TO KPSF WELL AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT MOVING EAST QUICKLY...SO VCSH THERE THROUGH ABOUT 09Z-10Z.
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WITHIN THE BAND OF SHOWERS ARE VFR. THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE COLDER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS STILL IN
WESTERN/CENTRAL NY AND CEILINGS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE MVFR RANGE
THERE. SO...AFTER 09Z-10Z...THESE LOWER CEILINGS SHOULD SPREAD
ACROSS OUR REGION...FOR INTERVALS OF MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH ABOUT
13Z-14Z.

COLD FRONT EXITS THROUGH THE MORNING AND WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE...WHILE CEILINGS RISE BACK INTO THE VFR RANGE. CEILINGS
SHOULD REMAIN IN THE VFR RANGE MUCH OF TOMORROW AND COVERAGE OF
CLOUDS SHOULD DECREASE FROM VARIABLE BROKEN TO SCATTERED THROUGH THE
DAY.

WINDS FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST AT 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST BY DAYBREAK AND INCREASE
TO AROUND 15KT BY MID MORNING. WINDS SHOULD BE GUSTY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KT AT TIMES...THEN DIMINISHING
SLOWLY THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

...GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25-35 MPH TODAY...

STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE REGION TODAY...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL PRODUCE A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION...LEADING TO GUSTY WINDS.

RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 45-55 PERCENT RANGE IN VALLEYS...AND
55-70 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE RECOVERING TO 90-100 PERCENT WITH SOME DEW
FORMATION POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK. RH VALUES SHOULD DROP TO 40-50
PERCENT IN VALLEYS...AND 50-70 PERCENT ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
FOR TUE AFTERNOON.

W TO NW WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15-25 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE AT TIMES TODAY. W/NW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO
5-15 MPH LATE TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVED ACROSS THE REGION LAST EVENING...WITH ONLY
SCATTERED...LIGHT RAINFALL AMTS OF GENERALLY UNDER ONE TENTH OF AN
INCH...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS OCCURRED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY. THESE AMTS WILL HAVE
NEGLIGIBLE EFFECTS ON AREA RIVERS/STREAMS.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/GJM
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM







000
FXUS61 KALY 220849
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
449 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER AND BRISK CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR TODAY IN THE
WAKE OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR MIDWEEK WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT...SKIES HAVE BECOME CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY FOR
MOST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AS WELL AS SW MA AND NW CT.
THIS CLEARING IS ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT...AND ALSO
A SURGE OF DOWNSLOPING W/SW LOW LEVEL WINDS. CLOUDS REMAIN
PREVALENT ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK
VALLEY...SOUTHERN VT/NW MA...AND ARE INCREASING ONCE AGAIN ACROSS
THE SE CATSKILLS.

OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/COLD
POOL...AND ANOTHER SFC TROUGH PIVOT EAST TOWARD THE REGION...WE
EXPECT THE COVERAGE OF CLOUDS TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN. IN
ADDITION...SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD REDEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLY
DEVELOPING FURTHER S AND E INTO THE MOHAWK AND UPPER HUDSON
VALLEYS...AND SOUTHERN VT BY OR JUST AFTER DAYBREAK. SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES SHOULD BECOME MORE CONFINED TO HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN VT FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

SO...ALTHOUGH A FEW BREAKS OF SUN MAY OCCUR RIGHT AROUND
SUNRISE IN VALLEY AREAS...WE DO EXPECT A TREND TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY. IN THE WAKE
OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT
ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE COULD ALLOW FOR MORE BREAKS TO DEVELOP IN VALLEY
AREAS FOR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THERE REMAINS AT LEAST A CHANCE
THAT MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES BECOMES TRAPPED BENEATH A
DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. FOR NOW...HAVE INDICATED SKIES
BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY DURING THE AFTERNOON IN VALLEYS...WHILE
REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...BUT TRENDS WILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED IN CASE THE CLOUDS REMAIN MORE PERSISTENT.

WINDS WILL BE QUITE BRISK FROM THE W TO NW...WITH SOME GUSTS OF
25-35 MPH POSSIBLE...ESP IN AREAS WITHIN AND ADJACENT TO THE
MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

TEMPS WILL BE QUITE TRICKY...AS STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
WOULD SUPPORT TEMPS TO HOLD STEADY...OR SLOWLY FALL FROM THIS
MORNING/S LEVELS. HOWEVER...WILL INDICATE A SMALL RISE IN TEMPS
DURING THE LATE MORNING/MIDDAY HOURS...BEFORE SLOWLY FALLING THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE INDICATED A GENERAL BLEND OF THE MAV/MET
MOS...WITH MAXES GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 60
IN MOST VALLEYS...EXCEPT FOR MID/UPPER 60S ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS IN NW CT...WHERE MORE SUNSHINE...AND
DOWNSLOPING OFF THE CATSKILLS SHOULD PROMOTE ADDITIONAL WARMING.
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...MOST MAX TEMPS WILL ONLY REACH THE
50S...WITH PERHAPS SOME 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF SOME WIND...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF AT
LEAST PATCHY CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT THE FROST POTENTIAL FOR
TONIGHT...WITH MOST MIN TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S.

TUESDAY...A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING SE ON THE
WEST SIDE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY ALLOW FOR A
PERIOD OF CLOUDS DURING TUE AFTERNOON...ESP FOR AREAS N AND W OF
ALBANY. A FEW SPRINKLES WILL EVEN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH
65-70 IN VALLEYS AND 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

TUE NT-WED NT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS GRADUALLY MODERATING. EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO
FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S BOTH NIGHTS...WITH DAYTIME MAX
TEMPS WED REACHING THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THERE COULD BE SOME
VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING LATE EACH NIGHT...AND WITH VERY LIGHT
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS...COULD TAKE SOME TIME TO BURN OFF WED AM IN
THE DEEPEST VALLEYS...WITH SOME LOW STRATUS POSSIBLY LINGERING IN
SOME AREAS UNTIL MID TO LATE MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
QUIET AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THERE ARE
SOME HINTS OF A COASTAL SYSTEM THURSDAY...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
SOME CLOUDS PERHAPS APPROACHING THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT...BUT NOT MUCH. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER RIDGING
GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES ALSO SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS THURSDAY
SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. HIGHS FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...AROUND 70 IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
TEMPERATURES WARMING ONE OR TWO MORE DEGREES SATURDAY AND AGAIN
SUNDAY...WHEN HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 80...COOLER IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM KPOU TO KPSF WELL AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT MOVING EAST QUICKLY...SO VCSH THERE THROUGH ABOUT 09Z-10Z.
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WITHIN THE BAND OF SHOWERS ARE VFR. THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE COLDER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS STILL IN
WESTERN/CENTRAL NY AND CEILINGS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE MVFR RANGE
THERE. SO...AFTER 09Z-10Z...THESE LOWER CEILINGS SHOULD SPREAD
ACROSS OUR REGION...FOR INTERVALS OF MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH ABOUT
13Z-14Z.

COLD FRONT EXITS THROUGH THE MORNING AND WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE...WHILE CEILINGS RISE BACK INTO THE VFR RANGE. CEILINGS
SHOULD REMAIN IN THE VFR RANGE MUCH OF TOMORROW AND COVERAGE OF
CLOUDS SHOULD DECREASE FROM VARIABLE BROKEN TO SCATTERED THROUGH THE
DAY.

WINDS FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST AT 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST BY DAYBREAK AND INCREASE
TO AROUND 15KT BY MID MORNING. WINDS SHOULD BE GUSTY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KT AT TIMES...THEN DIMINISHING
SLOWLY THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

...GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25-35 MPH TODAY...

STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE REGION TODAY...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL PRODUCE A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION...LEADING TO GUSTY WINDS.

RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 45-55 PERCENT RANGE IN VALLEYS...AND
55-70 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE RECOVERING TO 90-100 PERCENT WITH SOME DEW
FORMATION POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK. RH VALUES SHOULD DROP TO 40-50
PERCENT IN VALLEYS...AND 50-70 PERCENT ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
FOR TUE AFTERNOON.

W TO NW WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15-25 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE AT TIMES TODAY. W/NW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO
5-15 MPH LATE TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVED ACROSS THE REGION LAST EVENING...WITH ONLY
SCATTERED...LIGHT RAINFALL AMTS OF GENERALLY UNDER ONE TENTH OF AN
INCH...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS OCCURRED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY. THESE AMTS WILL HAVE
NEGLIGIBLE EFFECTS ON AREA RIVERS/STREAMS.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/GJM
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM








000
FXUS61 KOKX 220848
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
448 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES EAST OF THE AREA TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF
THE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING AS THE DEEP
UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY PIVOTS EAST THROUGH THE DAY. ANY LINGERING
SHOWERS AND PATCHES OF FOG THIS MORNING WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE BY
SUNRISE AND THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
THEN QUICKLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TODAY.

WITH THE SUBSIDENCE BUILDING IN...SKIES WILL CLEAR WITH JUST
SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. CAA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
COUPLED WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS THE HIGH APPROACHES
WILL LEND TO GUSTY WINDS TODAY...20-25MPH AT THE HIGHEST THIS
AFTERNOON.

VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH A GENERAL
MAV/MET/GMOS BLEND USED. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE AREA AND A
COOL NW FLOW...HIGHS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY AT ATLANTIC OCEAN
FACING BEACHES MAINLY DUE TO A SWELL FROM AN OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...LOW TEMPS WILL
BE ABLE TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S FOR INTERIOR LOCATIONS AND
RANGE TO THE LOWER 50S NEAR THE NYC METRO...QUITE BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

EVEN WITH THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA ON
TUESDAY...LITTLE MOISTURE IS IN PLACE TO PROVIDE FOR MANY CLOUDS.
EXPECTING A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND LIGHT NW-N FLOW.

MAV/MET/GMOS BLEND AGAIN WORKED WELL FOR TEMPS. HIGHS ON TUESDAY
WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...EVENTUALLY LIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. THIS HIGH WILL PROVIDE THE REGION WITH FAIR AND DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS STARTED TO HINT AT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG
ISLAND THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW...THINKING THE HIGH
WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
LOW SOUTH OF THE REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF BACK OVER THE REGION FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK...WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH
THURSDAY...THEN RISE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST
THROUGH TONIGHT.

WNW WINDS IN WAKE OF FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING...INCREASE AND
BECOME GUSTY AFTER DAYBREAK WITH ISOLD GUSTS TO 30KT. WINDS
GENERALLY WILL WAVER BETWEEN 290 AND 320 MAG DURING THE DAY. FOR
CITY TERMINALS...WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE JUST RIGHT OF 310 MAG THIS
MORNING...THEN COULD BACK A TO LEFT OF 310 MAG AT KJFK/KEWR THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF TROUGH APPROACH. WINDS AND GUST SUBSIDE THIS
EVENING...VEERING GENERALLY RIGHT OF 310 MAG.

VFR TODAY WITH SCT-BKN 3.5-4.5 KFT CU THIS AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUE THROUGH THU...
.LATE MON NIGHT...VFR. NW WINDS DIMINISHING.
.TUE...VFR WITH LGT WINDS.
.WED...MVFR CIGS AROUND 3000FT POSSIBLE. ENE WINDS 5-15KT.
.THU...VFR WITH LGT NE FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
WAVEWATCH IS CURRENTLY 2-3 FT TOO HIGH WITH BOTH WAVE HEIGHTS AND
SWELL...WITH THE SWELL PEAKING THROUGH ABOUT 12Z TODAY. SEAS WILL
STILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH OCEAN SEAS REACHING
6-8FT BY 18Z AS AN OFFSHORE LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHEAST AWAY
FROM THE AREA. WIND ALSO INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND A COLD
FRONT AND GUSTS TO 25KT ARE EXPECTED ON THE OCEAN WATERS. NO
CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXISTING SCA IN PLACE. OCCASIONAL GUSTS
TO 25 KT ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON THE OTHER WATERS BUT CONFIDENCE TOO
LOW TO ISSUE A SCA.

SEAS DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH WINDS AND WAVES FALLING BELOW
SCA CRITERIA BY TUESDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE
POSSIBILITY OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING WELL
SOUTH OF OUR WATERS AND PASSING SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY TO THE INTENSITY AND TRACK OF THE LOW.
GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION...WHICH SHOULD BUILD SEAS TO
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. HAVE UNDERCUT WAVEWATCH BY A LITTLE DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY OF THIS EVENT.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/LN
NEAR TERM...LN
SHORT TERM...LN
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...BC/LN
HYDROLOGY...LN











000
FXUS61 KOKX 220832
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
432 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES EAST OF THE AREA TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF
THE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING AS THE DEEP
UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY PIVOTS EAST THROUGH THE DAY. ANY LINGERING
SHOWERS AND PATCHES OF FOG THIS MORNING WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE BY
SUNRISE AND THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
THEN QUICKLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TODAY.

WITH THE SUBSIDENCE BUILDING IN...SKIES WILL CLEAR WITH JUST
SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. CAA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
COUPLED WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS THE HIGH APPROACHES
WILL LEND TO GUSTY WINDS TODAY...20-25MPH AT THE HIGHEST THIS
AFTERNOON.

VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH A GENERAL
MAV/MET/GMOS BLEND USED. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE AREA AND A
COOL NW FLOW...HIGHS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY AT ATLANTIC OCEAN
FACING BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...LOW TEMPS WILL
BE ABLE TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S FOR INTERIOR LOCATIONS AND
RANGE TO THE LOWER 50S NEAR THE NYC METRO...QUITE BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

EVEN WITH THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA ON
TUESDAY...LITTLE MOISTURE IS IN PLACE TO PROVIDE FOR MANY CLOUDS.
EXPECTING A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND LIGHT NW-N FLOW.

MAV/MET/GMOS BLEND AGAIN WORKED WELL FOR TEMPS. HIGHS ON TUESDAY
WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...EVENTUALLY LIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. THIS HIGH WILL PROVIDE THE REGION WITH FAIR AND DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS STARTED TO HINT AT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG
ISLAND THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW...THINKING THE HIGH
WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
LOW SOUTH OF THE REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF BACK OVER THE REGION FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK...WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH
THURSDAY...THEN RISE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST
THROUGH TONIGHT.

WNW WINDS IN WAKE OF FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING...INCREASE AND
BECOME GUSTY AFTER DAYBREAK WITH ISOLD GUSTS TO 30KT. WINDS
GENERALLY WILL WAVER BETWEEN 290 AND 320 MAG DURING THE DAY. FOR
CITY TERMINALS...WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE JUST RIGHT OF 310 MAG THIS
MORNING...THEN COULD BACK A TO LEFT OF 310 MAG AT KJFK/KEWR THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF TROUGH APPROACH. WINDS AND GUST SUBSIDE THIS
EVENING...VEERING GENERALLY RIGHT OF 310 MAG.

VFR TODAY WITH SCT-BKN 3.5-4.5 KFT CU THIS AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUE THROUGH THU...
.LATE MON NIGHT...VFR. NW WINDS DIMINISHING.
.TUE...VFR WITH LGT WINDS.
.WED...MVFR CIGS AROUND 3000FT POSSIBLE. ENE WINDS 5-15KT.
.THU...VFR WITH LGT NE FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
WAVEWATCH IS CURRENTLY 2-3 FT TOO HIGH WITH BOTH WAVE HEIGHTS AND
SWELL...WITH THE SWELL PEAKING THROUGH ABOUT 12Z TODAY. SEAS WILL
STILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH OCEAN SEAS REACHING
6-8FT BY 18Z AS AN OFFSHORE LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHEAST AWAY
FROM THE AREA. WIND ALSO INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND A COLD
FRONT AND GUSTS TO 25KT ARE EXPECTED ON THE OCEAN WATERS. NO
CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXISTING SCA IN PLACE. OCCASIONAL GUSTS
TO 25 KT ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON THE OTHER WATERS BUT CONFIDENCE TOO
LOW TO ISSUE A SCA.

SEAS DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH WINDS AND WAVES FALLING BELOW
SCA CRITERIA BY TUESDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE
POSSIBILITY OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING WELL
SOUTH OF OUR WATERS AND PASSING SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY TO THE INTENSITY AND TRACK OF THE LOW.
GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION...WHICH SHOULD BUILD SEAS TO
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. HAVE UNDERCUT WAVEWATCH BY A LITTLE DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY OF THIS EVENT.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/LN
NEAR TERM...LN
SHORT TERM...LN
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...BC/LN
HYDROLOGY...LN







000
FXUS61 KBOX 220752
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
352 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS MORNING...WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS AND A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS IN ITS WAKE TODAY. BEHIND
THE FRONT DRIER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER OVERSPREADS THE AREA
YIELDING MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS FOR THE WEEK AHEAD.
TEMPERATURES THEN BEGIN TO WARM BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
POSSIBLE RECORD WARMTH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
USING A BLEND OF SFC OBS AND MSAS...IT APPEARS THAT SFC COLD FRONT
IS CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM THE LOW CT VALLEY IN SRN CT THROUGH
ABOUT AFN. IT HAS SLOWED SOMEWHAT AS IT BEGINS TO PARALLEL THE
UPPER LVL FLOW GIVEN THE UPPER SHORTWAVE IS NOW E OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY. THEREFORE...ALTHOUGH IT WILL CONTINUE IT/S PROGRESSION TO
THE E...IT MAY TAKE UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK TO FULLY MOVE OFFSHORE OF
THE CAPE/ISLANDS ESPECIALLY. IN SPITE OF THIS...MUCH OF THE EARLY
MORNING FOG HAS NOW DISSIPATED THANKS TO WESTERLY ISALLOBARIC
COMPONENT TO THE FLOW. THIS W FLOW ALSO CONTINUES TO LEAD TO
DOWNSLOPING AND DIMINISHING OF WHAT IS LEFT OF THE -SHRA
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...WHICH IS UNLIKELY TO MAKE IT MUCH
FURTHER E OF THE WORCESTER HILLS AND MONADNOCKS.

AS THE FRONT SHIFTS OFFSHORE...AND UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE SLIDES INTO
NRN NEW ENGLAND...A ROBUST SFC PRES GRADIENT IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP.
THEREFORE...AS SKIES CLEAR AND MIXING COMMENCES...EXPECT A BREEZY
DAY TODAY WITH WIND GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH NOT UNCOMMON OUT OF THE
WNW. COLD ADVECTION CU IS ALSO LIKELY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...AND NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION A SPRINKLE IS ABLE TO BE
SQUEEZED OUT AS WELL...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN TO REFLECT THIS IN POPS. REGARDING
HIGHS...H85 TEMPS ARE DROPPING RAPIDLY...AND MAY NOT BE MIXED TO
FULLY. SO SUSPECT HIGHS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LOOK GOOD
GIVEN AT PEAK MIXING...H85 TEMPS AVERAGE ABOUT +8C. DWPTS DROP
INTO THE 40S...SO AT THE VERY LEAST...MUCH LESS HUMID TODAY.

A BUILDING OFFSHORE SWELL TODAY...MAY YIELD HIGH SURF PARTICULARLY
AT SOUTH COASTAL BEACHES TODAY. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE HIGH
SURF ADVISORY FOR THE TIME BEING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
COOL DRY AIRMASS SETTLES IN PLACE AS NOSE OF STRONG 1035 HPA HIGH
PRES MOVES IN FROM THE W. IN SPITE OF THIS MORE AUTUMN-LIKE
AIRMASS...MINS MAY NOT BE ABLE TO REALIZE THEIR FULL POTENTIAL.
THE COMBINATION OF LINGERING DIURNAL CU EARLY...AND SFC PRES
GRADIENT TAKING SOME TIME TO FULLY SLACKEN MAY LIMIT RADIATIONAL
COOLING. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S-MID 40S ARE LIKELY...WITH MINS
CLOSER TO 50 IN THE URBAN SPOTS. THE COLDEST SPOTS ARE LIKELY IN
NW MA AND SW NH. IT/S VERY CLOSE TO FROST THRESHOLDS...BUT WITH
THE MITIGATING FACTORS MENTIONED...NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ISSUE
FROST ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED THROUGH
THE DAY.

TUE...
HIGH PRES BEGINS TO CREST ACROSS THE REGION ON TUE.
THEREFORE...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED. H85 TEMPS HOVER
AROUND +6C...BUT MAY NOT BE FULLY REALIZED UNDER STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THEREFORE...KEEPING HIGHS GENERALLY A DEGREE
OR TWO BELOW NORMAL. MAINLY THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* THE 1ST WEEK OF AUTUMN WILL FEATURE MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS
  FOLLOWED BY POTENTIAL NEAR RECORD WARMTH NEXT WEEKEND

* HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD

...SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL EVALUATION...

FAIRLY STRONG TELECONNECTION FOR RIDGING HERE IN THE EAST THIS
COMING WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND AS +PNA TRENDS TOWARD NEUTRAL ALONG
WITH NAO AND AO TRENDING OR REMAINING POSITIVE. DURING THIS TIME THE
LARGE SCALE FLOW EVOLVES INTO A WEST COAST TROUGH WITH A DOWNSTREAM
RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES NORTHWARD TOWARD JAMES BAY.  THIS IS A
WARM AND DRY SETUP FOR NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER GIVEN THE CHAOTIC NATURE
OF THE ATMOSPHERE THERE ARE ALWAYS WILDCARDS AT THIS TIME RANGE AND
THIS CASE IS NO EXCEPTION.

THE FIRST WILDCARD WILL BE THE DOWNSTREAM MEAN TROUGH OVER THE
MARITIMES. WILL HAVE TO WATCH IF ANY NORTHERN STREAM IMPULSES
CLIMBING OVER THE GREAT LAKES RIDGE AND THEN INTO THE MARITIMES
DRAGS ANY BACKDOOR FRONTS INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WOULD YIELD
COOLER TEMPS ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN MA. THE OTHER WILDCARD WILL BE
MOISTURE AND JET ENERGY THAT BREAKS OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES
FROM THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD TODAY.
SOME OF THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE HAS THIS MOISTURE/INVERTED TROUGH
CREEPING NORTHWARD DURING THIS WEEK AND GETTING CLOSE TO NEW ENGLAND
WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT BEFORE THEN GETTING SHUNTED OUT TO SEA FRI.

OTHERWISE DESPITE AUTUMN ARRIVING LATER TODAY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
DELIVERS ONE OR MORE DAYS OF ANOMALOUS WARMTH TO THE REGION NEXT
WEEKEND. THE 12Z ECENS AND 00Z GEFS HAVE 850 TEMPS WARMING TO +14C
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS TIME.

...DAILY SENSIBLE WEATHER DETAILS...

TUESDAY NIGHT THRU THU...

DRY AIRMASS OVER NEW ENGLAND ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AS SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA WILL YIELD IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. THIS WILL RESULT IN CHILLY NIGHTS WITH MOST LOCATIONS
DIPPING INTO THE 40S OUTSIDE THE URBAN AREAS AND AWAY FROM THE
COASTLINE. HOWEVER AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL RECOVER NICELY TO 65-70.
GIVEN PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE HIGH WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH LOCAL
SEABREEZES DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS WILL STRAY AWAY FROM A MODEL BLEND AND FOLLOW THE
COOLER MOS GUIDANCE AND EVEN SHAVE OFF A FEW MORE DEGS IN THE
TYPICALLY COOLER LOCATIONS /I.E. NORWOOD-TAUNTON-MARTHAS VINEYARD-
ETC/. AS MENTIONED ABOVE WILL HAVE TO WATCH MOISTURE AND INVERTED
TROUGH CREEPING UP THE COAST WED NIGHT THRU THU NIGHT. 00Z GEFS HAS
TRENDED NORTH WITH LOW PROBS OF 0.05 QPF ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. THIS
SUPPORTS THE FARTHER NORTH SOLUTION OF THE OPERATIONAL 00Z GFS. IN
ADDITION A MODEL BLEND OF ALL DATASETS BRINGS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO
THE SOUTH COAST WITH A MODEL BLEND OF QPF BRINGING MEASURABLE RAIN
INTO NORTHERN CT-RI TO SOUTHERN SUBURBS OF BOSTON.


FRI/SAT AND SUN...

SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS WESTWARD FROM OVER NEW ENGLAND TO ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS YIELDS A WARMER WNW LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW INTO NEW
ENGLAND. THIS SHOULD YIELD TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S FRI AND THEN
PUSHING 80 OR SO NEXT WEEKEND. THE RECORDS FOR THE DAY INCLUDE

...9/27...

BOS...86...1998
BDL...88...1998
PVD...86...1998
ORH...85...1933

GIVEN THE TIME RANGE HERE ALONG WITH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WILL
FOLLOW A MODEL BLEND. HUMIDITY SHOULD BE IN THE COMFORTABLE RANGE
GIVEN WNW LOW LEVEL LAND TRAJECTORY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

THROUGH 12Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING.
WITH A MIX OF ALL CATEGORIES...EXPECT THE GENERAL TREND THROUGH
12Z WILL BE TOWARD VFR FROM W-E. TIMING IN TAFS MAY BE OFF BY AN
HOUR OR SO...BUT ONCE WINDS PICK UP AND SHIFT MORE W-NW VFR SHOULD
DOMINATE THEREAFTER.

TODAY INTO TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR...ALTHOUGH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MAY LINGER AT ACK THROUGH MID
MORNING. WINDS MAINLY WNW TODAY...GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KT AT
TIMES THEN DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MAINLY VFR FROM NOW ON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MAINLY VFR FROM NOW ON.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR EACH DAY. EXCEPTION WILL BE A LOW RISK OF
MVFR IN SHOWERS SOUTH COAST INCLUDING THE ISLANDS FROM WED NIGHT
THRU THU NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SLOWLY BUILDING SWELL MAY APPROACH 10 FT WELL OFFSHORE...BUT
INCREASE TO 5-8FT CLOSER TO THE THE SRN NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH
THE DAY...AS W-NW WINDS REACH ABOUT 25 KT. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED AND WILL CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT...DROPPING CLOSE TO SHORE THIS EVENING AS WINDS
DIMINISH. HOWEVER...THE SWELL MAY TAKE UNTIL EARLY TUE MORNING TO
COMPLETELY DIMINISH ON THE S AND SE WATERS.

TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
AFTER THE LEFTOVER SWELL SUBSIDES...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF QUIET
BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRES BEGINS TO CREST OVER THE
WATERS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

LIGHT WINDS THRU THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRES REMAINS OVER OR NEAR THE
REGION. DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY TOO. POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WILL BE
RAIN SHOWERS WED NIGHT THRU THU NIGHT AS MOISTURE ADVECTS UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR MAZ020>024.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ230-236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY



000
FXUS61 KBOX 220752
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
352 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS MORNING...WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS AND A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS IN ITS WAKE TODAY. BEHIND
THE FRONT DRIER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER OVERSPREADS THE AREA
YIELDING MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS FOR THE WEEK AHEAD.
TEMPERATURES THEN BEGIN TO WARM BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
POSSIBLE RECORD WARMTH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
USING A BLEND OF SFC OBS AND MSAS...IT APPEARS THAT SFC COLD FRONT
IS CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM THE LOW CT VALLEY IN SRN CT THROUGH
ABOUT AFN. IT HAS SLOWED SOMEWHAT AS IT BEGINS TO PARALLEL THE
UPPER LVL FLOW GIVEN THE UPPER SHORTWAVE IS NOW E OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY. THEREFORE...ALTHOUGH IT WILL CONTINUE IT/S PROGRESSION TO
THE E...IT MAY TAKE UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK TO FULLY MOVE OFFSHORE OF
THE CAPE/ISLANDS ESPECIALLY. IN SPITE OF THIS...MUCH OF THE EARLY
MORNING FOG HAS NOW DISSIPATED THANKS TO WESTERLY ISALLOBARIC
COMPONENT TO THE FLOW. THIS W FLOW ALSO CONTINUES TO LEAD TO
DOWNSLOPING AND DIMINISHING OF WHAT IS LEFT OF THE -SHRA
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...WHICH IS UNLIKELY TO MAKE IT MUCH
FURTHER E OF THE WORCESTER HILLS AND MONADNOCKS.

AS THE FRONT SHIFTS OFFSHORE...AND UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE SLIDES INTO
NRN NEW ENGLAND...A ROBUST SFC PRES GRADIENT IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP.
THEREFORE...AS SKIES CLEAR AND MIXING COMMENCES...EXPECT A BREEZY
DAY TODAY WITH WIND GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH NOT UNCOMMON OUT OF THE
WNW. COLD ADVECTION CU IS ALSO LIKELY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...AND NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION A SPRINKLE IS ABLE TO BE
SQUEEZED OUT AS WELL...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN TO REFLECT THIS IN POPS. REGARDING
HIGHS...H85 TEMPS ARE DROPPING RAPIDLY...AND MAY NOT BE MIXED TO
FULLY. SO SUSPECT HIGHS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LOOK GOOD
GIVEN AT PEAK MIXING...H85 TEMPS AVERAGE ABOUT +8C. DWPTS DROP
INTO THE 40S...SO AT THE VERY LEAST...MUCH LESS HUMID TODAY.

A BUILDING OFFSHORE SWELL TODAY...MAY YIELD HIGH SURF PARTICULARLY
AT SOUTH COASTAL BEACHES TODAY. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE HIGH
SURF ADVISORY FOR THE TIME BEING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
COOL DRY AIRMASS SETTLES IN PLACE AS NOSE OF STRONG 1035 HPA HIGH
PRES MOVES IN FROM THE W. IN SPITE OF THIS MORE AUTUMN-LIKE
AIRMASS...MINS MAY NOT BE ABLE TO REALIZE THEIR FULL POTENTIAL.
THE COMBINATION OF LINGERING DIURNAL CU EARLY...AND SFC PRES
GRADIENT TAKING SOME TIME TO FULLY SLACKEN MAY LIMIT RADIATIONAL
COOLING. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S-MID 40S ARE LIKELY...WITH MINS
CLOSER TO 50 IN THE URBAN SPOTS. THE COLDEST SPOTS ARE LIKELY IN
NW MA AND SW NH. IT/S VERY CLOSE TO FROST THRESHOLDS...BUT WITH
THE MITIGATING FACTORS MENTIONED...NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ISSUE
FROST ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED THROUGH
THE DAY.

TUE...
HIGH PRES BEGINS TO CREST ACROSS THE REGION ON TUE.
THEREFORE...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED. H85 TEMPS HOVER
AROUND +6C...BUT MAY NOT BE FULLY REALIZED UNDER STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THEREFORE...KEEPING HIGHS GENERALLY A DEGREE
OR TWO BELOW NORMAL. MAINLY THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* THE 1ST WEEK OF AUTUMN WILL FEATURE MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS
  FOLLOWED BY POTENTIAL NEAR RECORD WARMTH NEXT WEEKEND

* HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD

...SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL EVALUATION...

FAIRLY STRONG TELECONNECTION FOR RIDGING HERE IN THE EAST THIS
COMING WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND AS +PNA TRENDS TOWARD NEUTRAL ALONG
WITH NAO AND AO TRENDING OR REMAINING POSITIVE. DURING THIS TIME THE
LARGE SCALE FLOW EVOLVES INTO A WEST COAST TROUGH WITH A DOWNSTREAM
RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES NORTHWARD TOWARD JAMES BAY.  THIS IS A
WARM AND DRY SETUP FOR NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER GIVEN THE CHAOTIC NATURE
OF THE ATMOSPHERE THERE ARE ALWAYS WILDCARDS AT THIS TIME RANGE AND
THIS CASE IS NO EXCEPTION.

THE FIRST WILDCARD WILL BE THE DOWNSTREAM MEAN TROUGH OVER THE
MARITIMES. WILL HAVE TO WATCH IF ANY NORTHERN STREAM IMPULSES
CLIMBING OVER THE GREAT LAKES RIDGE AND THEN INTO THE MARITIMES
DRAGS ANY BACKDOOR FRONTS INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WOULD YIELD
COOLER TEMPS ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN MA. THE OTHER WILDCARD WILL BE
MOISTURE AND JET ENERGY THAT BREAKS OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES
FROM THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD TODAY.
SOME OF THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE HAS THIS MOISTURE/INVERTED TROUGH
CREEPING NORTHWARD DURING THIS WEEK AND GETTING CLOSE TO NEW ENGLAND
WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT BEFORE THEN GETTING SHUNTED OUT TO SEA FRI.

OTHERWISE DESPITE AUTUMN ARRIVING LATER TODAY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
DELIVERS ONE OR MORE DAYS OF ANOMALOUS WARMTH TO THE REGION NEXT
WEEKEND. THE 12Z ECENS AND 00Z GEFS HAVE 850 TEMPS WARMING TO +14C
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS TIME.

...DAILY SENSIBLE WEATHER DETAILS...

TUESDAY NIGHT THRU THU...

DRY AIRMASS OVER NEW ENGLAND ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AS SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA WILL YIELD IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. THIS WILL RESULT IN CHILLY NIGHTS WITH MOST LOCATIONS
DIPPING INTO THE 40S OUTSIDE THE URBAN AREAS AND AWAY FROM THE
COASTLINE. HOWEVER AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL RECOVER NICELY TO 65-70.
GIVEN PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE HIGH WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH LOCAL
SEABREEZES DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS WILL STRAY AWAY FROM A MODEL BLEND AND FOLLOW THE
COOLER MOS GUIDANCE AND EVEN SHAVE OFF A FEW MORE DEGS IN THE
TYPICALLY COOLER LOCATIONS /I.E. NORWOOD-TAUNTON-MARTHAS VINEYARD-
ETC/. AS MENTIONED ABOVE WILL HAVE TO WATCH MOISTURE AND INVERTED
TROUGH CREEPING UP THE COAST WED NIGHT THRU THU NIGHT. 00Z GEFS HAS
TRENDED NORTH WITH LOW PROBS OF 0.05 QPF ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. THIS
SUPPORTS THE FARTHER NORTH SOLUTION OF THE OPERATIONAL 00Z GFS. IN
ADDITION A MODEL BLEND OF ALL DATASETS BRINGS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO
THE SOUTH COAST WITH A MODEL BLEND OF QPF BRINGING MEASURABLE RAIN
INTO NORTHERN CT-RI TO SOUTHERN SUBURBS OF BOSTON.


FRI/SAT AND SUN...

SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS WESTWARD FROM OVER NEW ENGLAND TO ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS YIELDS A WARMER WNW LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW INTO NEW
ENGLAND. THIS SHOULD YIELD TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S FRI AND THEN
PUSHING 80 OR SO NEXT WEEKEND. THE RECORDS FOR THE DAY INCLUDE

...9/27...

BOS...86...1998
BDL...88...1998
PVD...86...1998
ORH...85...1933

GIVEN THE TIME RANGE HERE ALONG WITH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WILL
FOLLOW A MODEL BLEND. HUMIDITY SHOULD BE IN THE COMFORTABLE RANGE
GIVEN WNW LOW LEVEL LAND TRAJECTORY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

THROUGH 12Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING.
WITH A MIX OF ALL CATEGORIES...EXPECT THE GENERAL TREND THROUGH
12Z WILL BE TOWARD VFR FROM W-E. TIMING IN TAFS MAY BE OFF BY AN
HOUR OR SO...BUT ONCE WINDS PICK UP AND SHIFT MORE W-NW VFR SHOULD
DOMINATE THEREAFTER.

TODAY INTO TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR...ALTHOUGH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MAY LINGER AT ACK THROUGH MID
MORNING. WINDS MAINLY WNW TODAY...GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KT AT
TIMES THEN DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MAINLY VFR FROM NOW ON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MAINLY VFR FROM NOW ON.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR EACH DAY. EXCEPTION WILL BE A LOW RISK OF
MVFR IN SHOWERS SOUTH COAST INCLUDING THE ISLANDS FROM WED NIGHT
THRU THU NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SLOWLY BUILDING SWELL MAY APPROACH 10 FT WELL OFFSHORE...BUT
INCREASE TO 5-8FT CLOSER TO THE THE SRN NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH
THE DAY...AS W-NW WINDS REACH ABOUT 25 KT. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED AND WILL CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT...DROPPING CLOSE TO SHORE THIS EVENING AS WINDS
DIMINISH. HOWEVER...THE SWELL MAY TAKE UNTIL EARLY TUE MORNING TO
COMPLETELY DIMINISH ON THE S AND SE WATERS.

TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
AFTER THE LEFTOVER SWELL SUBSIDES...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF QUIET
BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRES BEGINS TO CREST OVER THE
WATERS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

LIGHT WINDS THRU THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRES REMAINS OVER OR NEAR THE
REGION. DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY TOO. POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WILL BE
RAIN SHOWERS WED NIGHT THRU THU NIGHT AS MOISTURE ADVECTS UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR MAZ020>024.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ230-236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KOKX 220732
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
332 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES EAST OF THE AREA TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF
THE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING AS THE DEEP
UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY PIVOTS EAST THROUGH THE DAY. ANY LINGERING
SHOWERS AND PATCHES OF FOG THIS MORNING WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE BY
SUNRISE AND THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
THEN QUICKLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TODAY.

WITH THE SUBSIDENCE BUILDING IN...SKIES WILL CLEAR WITH JUST
SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. CAA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
COUPLED WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS THE HIGH APPROACHES
WILL LEND TO GUSTY WINDS TODAY...20-25MPH AT THE HIGHEST THIS
AFTERNOON.

VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH A GENERAL
MAV/MET/GMOS BLEND USED. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE AREA AND A
COOL NW FLOW...HIGHS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY AT ATLANTIC OCEAN
FACING BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...LOW TEMPS WILL
BE ABLE TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S FOR INTERIOR LOCATIONS AND
RANGE TO THE LOWER 50S NEAR THE NYC METRO...QUITE BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

EVEN WITH THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA ON
TUESDAY...LITTLE MOISTURE IS IN PLACE TO PROVIDE FOR MANY CLOUDS.
EXPECTING A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND LIGHT NW-N FLOW.

MAV/MET/GMOS BLEND AGAIN WORKED WELL FOR TEMPS. HIGHS ON TUESDAY
WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...EVENTUALLY LIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. THIS HIGH WILL PROVIDE THE REGION WITH FAIR AND DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS STARTED TO HINT AT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG
ISLAND THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW...THINKING THE HIGH
WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
LOW SOUTH OF THE REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF BACK OVER THE REGION FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK...WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH
THURSDAY...THEN RISE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST TONIGHT.

WNW WINDS IN WAKE OF FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING...INCREASE AND
BECOME GUSTY AFTER DAYBREAK WITH ISOLD GUSTS TO 30KT. WINDS
GENERALLY WILL WAVER BETWEEN 290 AND 320 MAG DURING THE DAY. FOR
CITY TERMINALS...WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE JUST RIGHT OF 310 MAG THIS
MORNING...THEN COULD BACK A TO LEFT OF 310 MAG AT KJFK/KEWR THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF TROUGH APPROACH. WINDS AND GUST SUBSIDE THIS
EVENING...VEERING GENERALLY RIGHT OF 310 MAG.

IFR CIGS ACROSS KGON...BECOMES VFR BEHIND THE FRONT BY 08Z. A FEW
-SHRA WITH FRONT. OTHERWISE...VFR TODAY WITH SCT-BKN 4-5KFT CU
THIS AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUE THROUGH THU...
.LATE MON NIGHT...VFR. NW WINDS DIMINISHING.
.TUE...VFR WITH LGT WINDS.
.WED...MVFR CIGS AROUND 3000FT POSSIBLE. ENE WINDS 5-15KT.
.THU...VFR WITH LGT NE FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
WAVEWATCH IS CURRENTLY 2-3 FT TOO HIGH WITH BOTH WAVE HEIGHTS AND
SWELL...WITH THE SWELL PEAKING THROUGH ABOUT 12Z TODAY. SEAS WILL
STILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH OCEAN SEAS REACHING
6-8FT BY 18Z AS AN OFFSHORE LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHEAST AWAY
FROM THE AREA. WIND ALSO INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND A COLD
FRONT AND GUSTS TO 25KT ARE EXPECTED ON THE OCEAN WATERS. NO
CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXISTING SCA IN PLACE. OCCASIONAL GUSTS
TO 25 KT ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON THE OTHER WATERS BUT CONFIDENCE TOO
LOW TO ISSUE A SCA.

SEAS DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH WINDS AND WAVES FALLING BELOW
SCA CRITERIA BY TUESDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE
POSSIBILITY OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING WELL
SOUTH OF OUR WATERS AND PASSING SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY TO THE INTENSITY AND TRACK OF THE LOW.
GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION...WHICH SHOULD BUILD SEAS TO
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. HAVE UNDERCUT WAVEWATCH BY A LITTLE DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY OF THIS EVENT.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.




&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.


&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/LN
NEAR TERM...LN
SHORT TERM...LN
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...BC/LN
HYDROLOGY...LN










000
FXUS61 KOKX 220732
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
332 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES EAST OF THE AREA TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF
THE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING AS THE DEEP
UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY PIVOTS EAST THROUGH THE DAY. ANY LINGERING
SHOWERS AND PATCHES OF FOG THIS MORNING WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE BY
SUNRISE AND THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
THEN QUICKLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TODAY.

WITH THE SUBSIDENCE BUILDING IN...SKIES WILL CLEAR WITH JUST
SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. CAA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
COUPLED WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS THE HIGH APPROACHES
WILL LEND TO GUSTY WINDS TODAY...20-25MPH AT THE HIGHEST THIS
AFTERNOON.

VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH A GENERAL
MAV/MET/GMOS BLEND USED. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE AREA AND A
COOL NW FLOW...HIGHS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY AT ATLANTIC OCEAN
FACING BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...LOW TEMPS WILL
BE ABLE TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S FOR INTERIOR LOCATIONS AND
RANGE TO THE LOWER 50S NEAR THE NYC METRO...QUITE BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

EVEN WITH THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA ON
TUESDAY...LITTLE MOISTURE IS IN PLACE TO PROVIDE FOR MANY CLOUDS.
EXPECTING A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND LIGHT NW-N FLOW.

MAV/MET/GMOS BLEND AGAIN WORKED WELL FOR TEMPS. HIGHS ON TUESDAY
WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...EVENTUALLY LIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. THIS HIGH WILL PROVIDE THE REGION WITH FAIR AND DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS STARTED TO HINT AT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG
ISLAND THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW...THINKING THE HIGH
WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
LOW SOUTH OF THE REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF BACK OVER THE REGION FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK...WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH
THURSDAY...THEN RISE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST TONIGHT.

WNW WINDS IN WAKE OF FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING...INCREASE AND
BECOME GUSTY AFTER DAYBREAK WITH ISOLD GUSTS TO 30KT. WINDS
GENERALLY WILL WAVER BETWEEN 290 AND 320 MAG DURING THE DAY. FOR
CITY TERMINALS...WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE JUST RIGHT OF 310 MAG THIS
MORNING...THEN COULD BACK A TO LEFT OF 310 MAG AT KJFK/KEWR THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF TROUGH APPROACH. WINDS AND GUST SUBSIDE THIS
EVENING...VEERING GENERALLY RIGHT OF 310 MAG.

IFR CIGS ACROSS KGON...BECOMES VFR BEHIND THE FRONT BY 08Z. A FEW
-SHRA WITH FRONT. OTHERWISE...VFR TODAY WITH SCT-BKN 4-5KFT CU
THIS AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUE THROUGH THU...
.LATE MON NIGHT...VFR. NW WINDS DIMINISHING.
.TUE...VFR WITH LGT WINDS.
.WED...MVFR CIGS AROUND 3000FT POSSIBLE. ENE WINDS 5-15KT.
.THU...VFR WITH LGT NE FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
WAVEWATCH IS CURRENTLY 2-3 FT TOO HIGH WITH BOTH WAVE HEIGHTS AND
SWELL...WITH THE SWELL PEAKING THROUGH ABOUT 12Z TODAY. SEAS WILL
STILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH OCEAN SEAS REACHING
6-8FT BY 18Z AS AN OFFSHORE LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHEAST AWAY
FROM THE AREA. WIND ALSO INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND A COLD
FRONT AND GUSTS TO 25KT ARE EXPECTED ON THE OCEAN WATERS. NO
CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXISTING SCA IN PLACE. OCCASIONAL GUSTS
TO 25 KT ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON THE OTHER WATERS BUT CONFIDENCE TOO
LOW TO ISSUE A SCA.

SEAS DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH WINDS AND WAVES FALLING BELOW
SCA CRITERIA BY TUESDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE
POSSIBILITY OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING WELL
SOUTH OF OUR WATERS AND PASSING SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY TO THE INTENSITY AND TRACK OF THE LOW.
GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION...WHICH SHOULD BUILD SEAS TO
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. HAVE UNDERCUT WAVEWATCH BY A LITTLE DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY OF THIS EVENT.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.




&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.


&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/LN
NEAR TERM...LN
SHORT TERM...LN
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...BC/LN
HYDROLOGY...LN










000
FXUS61 KOKX 220732
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
332 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES EAST OF THE AREA TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF
THE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING AS THE DEEP
UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY PIVOTS EAST THROUGH THE DAY. ANY LINGERING
SHOWERS AND PATCHES OF FOG THIS MORNING WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE BY
SUNRISE AND THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
THEN QUICKLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TODAY.

WITH THE SUBSIDENCE BUILDING IN...SKIES WILL CLEAR WITH JUST
SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. CAA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
COUPLED WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS THE HIGH APPROACHES
WILL LEND TO GUSTY WINDS TODAY...20-25MPH AT THE HIGHEST THIS
AFTERNOON.

VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH A GENERAL
MAV/MET/GMOS BLEND USED. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE AREA AND A
COOL NW FLOW...HIGHS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY AT ATLANTIC OCEAN
FACING BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...LOW TEMPS WILL
BE ABLE TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S FOR INTERIOR LOCATIONS AND
RANGE TO THE LOWER 50S NEAR THE NYC METRO...QUITE BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

EVEN WITH THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA ON
TUESDAY...LITTLE MOISTURE IS IN PLACE TO PROVIDE FOR MANY CLOUDS.
EXPECTING A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND LIGHT NW-N FLOW.

MAV/MET/GMOS BLEND AGAIN WORKED WELL FOR TEMPS. HIGHS ON TUESDAY
WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...EVENTUALLY LIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. THIS HIGH WILL PROVIDE THE REGION WITH FAIR AND DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS STARTED TO HINT AT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG
ISLAND THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW...THINKING THE HIGH
WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
LOW SOUTH OF THE REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF BACK OVER THE REGION FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK...WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH
THURSDAY...THEN RISE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST TONIGHT.

WNW WINDS IN WAKE OF FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING...INCREASE AND
BECOME GUSTY AFTER DAYBREAK WITH ISOLD GUSTS TO 30KT. WINDS
GENERALLY WILL WAVER BETWEEN 290 AND 320 MAG DURING THE DAY. FOR
CITY TERMINALS...WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE JUST RIGHT OF 310 MAG THIS
MORNING...THEN COULD BACK A TO LEFT OF 310 MAG AT KJFK/KEWR THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF TROUGH APPROACH. WINDS AND GUST SUBSIDE THIS
EVENING...VEERING GENERALLY RIGHT OF 310 MAG.

IFR CIGS ACROSS KGON...BECOMES VFR BEHIND THE FRONT BY 08Z. A FEW
-SHRA WITH FRONT. OTHERWISE...VFR TODAY WITH SCT-BKN 4-5KFT CU
THIS AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUE THROUGH THU...
.LATE MON NIGHT...VFR. NW WINDS DIMINISHING.
.TUE...VFR WITH LGT WINDS.
.WED...MVFR CIGS AROUND 3000FT POSSIBLE. ENE WINDS 5-15KT.
.THU...VFR WITH LGT NE FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
WAVEWATCH IS CURRENTLY 2-3 FT TOO HIGH WITH BOTH WAVE HEIGHTS AND
SWELL...WITH THE SWELL PEAKING THROUGH ABOUT 12Z TODAY. SEAS WILL
STILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH OCEAN SEAS REACHING
6-8FT BY 18Z AS AN OFFSHORE LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHEAST AWAY
FROM THE AREA. WIND ALSO INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND A COLD
FRONT AND GUSTS TO 25KT ARE EXPECTED ON THE OCEAN WATERS. NO
CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXISTING SCA IN PLACE. OCCASIONAL GUSTS
TO 25 KT ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON THE OTHER WATERS BUT CONFIDENCE TOO
LOW TO ISSUE A SCA.

SEAS DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH WINDS AND WAVES FALLING BELOW
SCA CRITERIA BY TUESDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE
POSSIBILITY OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING WELL
SOUTH OF OUR WATERS AND PASSING SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY TO THE INTENSITY AND TRACK OF THE LOW.
GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION...WHICH SHOULD BUILD SEAS TO
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. HAVE UNDERCUT WAVEWATCH BY A LITTLE DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY OF THIS EVENT.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.




&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.


&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/LN
NEAR TERM...LN
SHORT TERM...LN
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...BC/LN
HYDROLOGY...LN










000
FXUS61 KOKX 220732
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
332 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES EAST OF THE AREA TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF
THE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING AS THE DEEP
UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY PIVOTS EAST THROUGH THE DAY. ANY LINGERING
SHOWERS AND PATCHES OF FOG THIS MORNING WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE BY
SUNRISE AND THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
THEN QUICKLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TODAY.

WITH THE SUBSIDENCE BUILDING IN...SKIES WILL CLEAR WITH JUST
SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. CAA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
COUPLED WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS THE HIGH APPROACHES
WILL LEND TO GUSTY WINDS TODAY...20-25MPH AT THE HIGHEST THIS
AFTERNOON.

VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH A GENERAL
MAV/MET/GMOS BLEND USED. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE AREA AND A
COOL NW FLOW...HIGHS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY AT ATLANTIC OCEAN
FACING BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...LOW TEMPS WILL
BE ABLE TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S FOR INTERIOR LOCATIONS AND
RANGE TO THE LOWER 50S NEAR THE NYC METRO...QUITE BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

EVEN WITH THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA ON
TUESDAY...LITTLE MOISTURE IS IN PLACE TO PROVIDE FOR MANY CLOUDS.
EXPECTING A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND LIGHT NW-N FLOW.

MAV/MET/GMOS BLEND AGAIN WORKED WELL FOR TEMPS. HIGHS ON TUESDAY
WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...EVENTUALLY LIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. THIS HIGH WILL PROVIDE THE REGION WITH FAIR AND DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS STARTED TO HINT AT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG
ISLAND THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW...THINKING THE HIGH
WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
LOW SOUTH OF THE REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF BACK OVER THE REGION FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK...WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH
THURSDAY...THEN RISE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST TONIGHT.

WNW WINDS IN WAKE OF FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING...INCREASE AND
BECOME GUSTY AFTER DAYBREAK WITH ISOLD GUSTS TO 30KT. WINDS
GENERALLY WILL WAVER BETWEEN 290 AND 320 MAG DURING THE DAY. FOR
CITY TERMINALS...WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE JUST RIGHT OF 310 MAG THIS
MORNING...THEN COULD BACK A TO LEFT OF 310 MAG AT KJFK/KEWR THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF TROUGH APPROACH. WINDS AND GUST SUBSIDE THIS
EVENING...VEERING GENERALLY RIGHT OF 310 MAG.

IFR CIGS ACROSS KGON...BECOMES VFR BEHIND THE FRONT BY 08Z. A FEW
-SHRA WITH FRONT. OTHERWISE...VFR TODAY WITH SCT-BKN 4-5KFT CU
THIS AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUE THROUGH THU...
.LATE MON NIGHT...VFR. NW WINDS DIMINISHING.
.TUE...VFR WITH LGT WINDS.
.WED...MVFR CIGS AROUND 3000FT POSSIBLE. ENE WINDS 5-15KT.
.THU...VFR WITH LGT NE FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
WAVEWATCH IS CURRENTLY 2-3 FT TOO HIGH WITH BOTH WAVE HEIGHTS AND
SWELL...WITH THE SWELL PEAKING THROUGH ABOUT 12Z TODAY. SEAS WILL
STILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH OCEAN SEAS REACHING
6-8FT BY 18Z AS AN OFFSHORE LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHEAST AWAY
FROM THE AREA. WIND ALSO INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND A COLD
FRONT AND GUSTS TO 25KT ARE EXPECTED ON THE OCEAN WATERS. NO
CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXISTING SCA IN PLACE. OCCASIONAL GUSTS
TO 25 KT ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON THE OTHER WATERS BUT CONFIDENCE TOO
LOW TO ISSUE A SCA.

SEAS DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH WINDS AND WAVES FALLING BELOW
SCA CRITERIA BY TUESDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE
POSSIBILITY OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING WELL
SOUTH OF OUR WATERS AND PASSING SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY TO THE INTENSITY AND TRACK OF THE LOW.
GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION...WHICH SHOULD BUILD SEAS TO
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. HAVE UNDERCUT WAVEWATCH BY A LITTLE DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY OF THIS EVENT.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.




&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.


&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/LN
NEAR TERM...LN
SHORT TERM...LN
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...BC/LN
HYDROLOGY...LN










000
FXUS61 KOKX 220556
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
156 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE TRI-STATE OVERNIGHT...MEANWHILE A COASTAL
LOW TRACKS TO THE EAST...THEN NORTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH TUESDAY. THE HIGH
THEN DOMINATES THE WEATHER THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST SEEMS TO BE THROUGH ORANGE
COUNTY NY AS OF 04Z AND WILL CONTINUE EAST. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
ARE ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT. EVEN WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE...SHOWERS ARE
NOT DISSIPATING AS QUICKLY AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. HAVE ADDED POPS
FOR LONG ISLAND AND CENTRAL/EASTERN CT THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

PATCHY FOG STILL IN PLACE OVER OUR EASTERN CT COUNTIES AND
CLEARING UP OVER LONG ISLAND. EXPECT FOG TO LIFT WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE COLD FRONT. FOG COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE AT TIMES.

OTHERWISE...MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO T/TD BASED ON TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
REGION REMAINS UNDER THE BASE OF 700-500 HPA TROUGH MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE A FEW SHORTWAVES ROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH - BUT GIVEN FORECAST DRYING IN THE LOW LEVELS WOULD ONLY
EXPECT AT MOST SOME CLOUDS AS THEY PASS. SO GOING WITH A MOSTLY
SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY MONDAY AND A MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR SKY
MONDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT.

FOR HIGHS MONDAY USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 875 HPA...EXCEPT
850 HPA OVER THE NW 1/4 OF THE CWA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE. EXPECT
READINGS TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR LOWS MONDAY NIGHT - WITH
READINGS FORECAST TO BE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF ORANGE COUNTY.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC BEACHES
MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE EAST COAST TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH SUNDAY.

AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WHILE
ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM CENTRAL CANADA. THE COMBINED
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND
THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH THEN
BUILDS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY AND REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY INTO
SUNDAY. INITIALLY THE AIR MASS WILL BE COOL TUESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A
WARMING TREND SETS UP FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE AIR
MASS MODIFIES. NEXT WEEKEND TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE REBOUNDED TO
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST TONIGHT.

WNW WINDS IN WAKE OF FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING...INCREASE AND
BECOME GUSTY AFTER DAYBREAK WITH ISOLD GUSTS TO 30KT. WINDS
GENERALLY WILL WAVER BETWEEN 290 AND 320 MAG DURING THE DAY. FOR
CITY TERMINALS...WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE JUST RIGHT OF 310 MAG THIS
MORNING...THEN COULD BACK A TO LEFT OF 310 MAG AT KJFK/KEWR THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF TROUGH APPROACH. WINDS AND GUST SUBSIDE THIS
EVENING...VEERING GENERALLY RIGHT OF 310 MAG.

IFR CIGS ACROSS KGON...BECOMES VFR BEHIND THE FRONT BY 08Z. A FEW
-SHRA WITH FRONT. OTHERWISE...VFR TODAY WITH SCT-BKN 4-5KFT CU
THIS AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUE THROUGH THU...
.LATE MON NIGHT...VFR. NW WINDS DIMINISHING.
.TUE...VFR WITH LGT WINDS.
.WED...MVFR CIGS AROUND 3000FT POSSIBLE. ENE WINDS 5-15KT.
.THU...VFR WITH LGT NE FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS BUILD TO UP TO 5 FT ON THE WESTERN COASTAL OCEAN WATERS AND
UP TO 8 FT ON THE EASTERN COASTAL OCEAN WATERS OVERNIGHT. WITH WIND
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS ON MONDAY - WILL
CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. SCA WIND GUSTS SHOULD LINGER
OVER THE EASTERN TWO COASTAL WATER ZONES INTO MONDAY EVENING AND
SCA LEVEL SEAS THROUGH THE NIGHT IN THOSE TWO ZONES...SO HAVE
EXTENDED THE SCA FOR ANZ-350 AND 353 THROUGH 10Z TUESDAY AS A
RESULT.

ON THE REMAINDER OF THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE
CURRENTLY EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT ARE
FORECAST ON MONDAY - HOWEVER OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25KT CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ACROSS THE EXTREME OUTER
OCEAN WATERS EAST OF MORICHES INLET VERY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS
SEAS WILL BE SUBSIDING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WATERS TUESDAY INTO SATURDAY WIND AND
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LITTLE IF ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
THE PASSING OF A COASTAL LOW TO THE EAST AND THE PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT.

DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/MET
NEAR TERM...LN/DS/MET
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...MALOIT/MET
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT







000
FXUS61 KOKX 220556
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
156 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE TRI-STATE OVERNIGHT...MEANWHILE A COASTAL
LOW TRACKS TO THE EAST...THEN NORTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH TUESDAY. THE HIGH
THEN DOMINATES THE WEATHER THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST SEEMS TO BE THROUGH ORANGE
COUNTY NY AS OF 04Z AND WILL CONTINUE EAST. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
ARE ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT. EVEN WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE...SHOWERS ARE
NOT DISSIPATING AS QUICKLY AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. HAVE ADDED POPS
FOR LONG ISLAND AND CENTRAL/EASTERN CT THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

PATCHY FOG STILL IN PLACE OVER OUR EASTERN CT COUNTIES AND
CLEARING UP OVER LONG ISLAND. EXPECT FOG TO LIFT WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE COLD FRONT. FOG COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE AT TIMES.

OTHERWISE...MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO T/TD BASED ON TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
REGION REMAINS UNDER THE BASE OF 700-500 HPA TROUGH MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE A FEW SHORTWAVES ROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH - BUT GIVEN FORECAST DRYING IN THE LOW LEVELS WOULD ONLY
EXPECT AT MOST SOME CLOUDS AS THEY PASS. SO GOING WITH A MOSTLY
SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY MONDAY AND A MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR SKY
MONDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT.

FOR HIGHS MONDAY USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 875 HPA...EXCEPT
850 HPA OVER THE NW 1/4 OF THE CWA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE. EXPECT
READINGS TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR LOWS MONDAY NIGHT - WITH
READINGS FORECAST TO BE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF ORANGE COUNTY.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC BEACHES
MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE EAST COAST TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH SUNDAY.

AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WHILE
ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM CENTRAL CANADA. THE COMBINED
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND
THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH THEN
BUILDS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY AND REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY INTO
SUNDAY. INITIALLY THE AIR MASS WILL BE COOL TUESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A
WARMING TREND SETS UP FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE AIR
MASS MODIFIES. NEXT WEEKEND TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE REBOUNDED TO
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST TONIGHT.

WNW WINDS IN WAKE OF FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING...INCREASE AND
BECOME GUSTY AFTER DAYBREAK WITH ISOLD GUSTS TO 30KT. WINDS
GENERALLY WILL WAVER BETWEEN 290 AND 320 MAG DURING THE DAY. FOR
CITY TERMINALS...WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE JUST RIGHT OF 310 MAG THIS
MORNING...THEN COULD BACK A TO LEFT OF 310 MAG AT KJFK/KEWR THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF TROUGH APPROACH. WINDS AND GUST SUBSIDE THIS
EVENING...VEERING GENERALLY RIGHT OF 310 MAG.

IFR CIGS ACROSS KGON...BECOMES VFR BEHIND THE FRONT BY 08Z. A FEW
-SHRA WITH FRONT. OTHERWISE...VFR TODAY WITH SCT-BKN 4-5KFT CU
THIS AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUE THROUGH THU...
.LATE MON NIGHT...VFR. NW WINDS DIMINISHING.
.TUE...VFR WITH LGT WINDS.
.WED...MVFR CIGS AROUND 3000FT POSSIBLE. ENE WINDS 5-15KT.
.THU...VFR WITH LGT NE FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS BUILD TO UP TO 5 FT ON THE WESTERN COASTAL OCEAN WATERS AND
UP TO 8 FT ON THE EASTERN COASTAL OCEAN WATERS OVERNIGHT. WITH WIND
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS ON MONDAY - WILL
CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. SCA WIND GUSTS SHOULD LINGER
OVER THE EASTERN TWO COASTAL WATER ZONES INTO MONDAY EVENING AND
SCA LEVEL SEAS THROUGH THE NIGHT IN THOSE TWO ZONES...SO HAVE
EXTENDED THE SCA FOR ANZ-350 AND 353 THROUGH 10Z TUESDAY AS A
RESULT.

ON THE REMAINDER OF THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE
CURRENTLY EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT ARE
FORECAST ON MONDAY - HOWEVER OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25KT CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ACROSS THE EXTREME OUTER
OCEAN WATERS EAST OF MORICHES INLET VERY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS
SEAS WILL BE SUBSIDING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WATERS TUESDAY INTO SATURDAY WIND AND
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LITTLE IF ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
THE PASSING OF A COASTAL LOW TO THE EAST AND THE PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT.

DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/MET
NEAR TERM...LN/DS/MET
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...MALOIT/MET
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT






000
FXUS61 KBOX 220545
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
145 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN WILL AFFECT THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND
COAST THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...DRIER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER IS
ON TAP FOR MONDAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNNY DAYS AND CLEAR NIGHTS TO THE
REGION FROM TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH A WARMING TREND. WE
COULD APPROACH RECORD WARMTH ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
130 AM UPDATE...
OVER THE LAST HOUR OR TWO...WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE W AS
ISALLOBARIC COUPLET SUPPORTS RAPID PRES RISES TO THE W AND FALLING
TO THE E AS LOW PRES SLIDES TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA. THIS SHIFT HAS
LEAD TO A DRYING TREND AND REDUCTION IN THE OVERALL FOG COVERAGE.
WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT SPS/S AND ADVISORIES FOR THE TIME BEING
THOUGH AS THE ACTUAL FRONT IS NOW ONLY JUST E OF THE CT VALLEY
AND WILL TAKE 3-6 MORE HOURS TO CLEAR. OTHERWISE...FORECAST MAINLY
ON TRACK AS REMNANT SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DRY AS THEY REACH THE
DOWNSLOPING IN THE E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITH DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS ALLOWED
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUED TO AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  WE SHOULD SEE THIS ACTIVITY DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST WHICH WILL BE TRACKING NORTHEAST AND PASSING NEAR THE
BENCHMARK THIS EVENING. THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW FAR NORTHWEST
THE RAIN SHIELD WILL GET. LATEST NEAR TERM GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
TRENDING FURTHER NORTHWEST. THEREFORE...EXPECT A PERIOD OF STEADY
RAIN ACROSS THE CAPE/ISLANDS AND PROBABLY FURTHER NORTHWEST INTO
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MA/RHODE ISLAND FOR AT LEAST A TIME. IN
FACT...LATEST HRRR SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MA COAST INCLUDING BOSTON. NOT SURE IF
IT WILL GET THAT FAR NORTHWEST...BUT ITS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.
REGARDLESS...THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS NANTUCKET...
WHERE BETWEEN 0.50 TO PERHAPS UP TO 1 INCH OF RAIN MAY OCCUR.
THE RAIN MAY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING ACROSS THE CAPE
AND ISLANDS...BUT SHOULD WIND DOWN NEAR OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT.

MEANWHILE...ONCE THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SCATTERED SHOWERS WIND DOWN EARLY THIS EVENING...THE REST OF THE
REGION WILL MAINLY BE DRY TONIGHT.  HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING OUR WESTERN ZONES TOWARD MIDNIGHT.  WHILE SHEAR IS QUITE
IMPRESSIVE...VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY WILL BE LEFT.  SO WHILE WE MAY
SEE A FEW SPOT SHOWERS AFFECT OUR WESTERN ZONES...THEY WILL BE IN
THE PROCESS OF WEAKENING AND NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN THAT. LOW
TEMPS WILL ONLY BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 50S AND THE LOWER 60S BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
MONDAY...

A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL WORK INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. WHILE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED EARLY...MAY SEE A SCATTERED TO BROKEN DECK OF STRATO-
CUMULUS CLOUDS WORK INTO AT LEAST THE INTERIOR BY AFTERNOON. HIGHS
SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE INTERIOR...BUT STILL WILL
REACH BETWEEN 70 AND 75 ALONG HE COASTAL PLAIN. GUSTY WEST WINDS
OF 20 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED AS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWING VERY GOOD
MIXING.

HIGH SURF...GIVEN LARGE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SWELL FROM DEPARTING
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAVE ISSUED A HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR THE
SOUTH COAST ON MONDAY.  WE ISSUE HIGH SURF PRODUCTS THROUGH THE END
OF SEPTEMBER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

MONDAY NIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.  THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR DIMINISHING WINDS AND SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR.  LOOKS LIKE
A PRETTY GOOD NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING...WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT
IN THE UPPER 30S TO THE MIDDLE 40S IN MOST LOCALES.  THE URBAN HEAT
ISLAND OF BOSTON WILL BE THE MILD SPOT WITH THE LOW BOTTOMING OUT
NEAR 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD
* NEAR RECORD WARMTH POSSIBLE NEXT SATURDAY

OVERVIEW...
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST MODEL GUIDANCE THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEPARTS THE NORTHEAST STATES ON
TUESDAY. THEN...MUCH ADO ABOUT BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE...BOTH AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE
IS VERY STRONG AS IT IS PARKED FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND BY NEXT WEEKEND.

DETAILS... TUESDAY WILL FEATURE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXCEPT ONLY
PARTLY SUNNY NW MA AND SW NH CLOSER TO SOME HIGHER 925 MB
HUMIDITY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SUNNY DAYS AND CLEAR NIGHTS THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND. HAVE GONE A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN MODEL CONSENSUS
TEMPERATURE MINIMUMS THROUGH THU DUE TO EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING EXPECTED ALONG WITH VERY DRY DEWPOINTS. AS THE CENTER OF
THE UPPER HIGH APPROACHES...AM EXPECTING A DRAMATIC WARMUP FRI
AND ESPECIALLY SAT. THE 12Z ECMWF RUN IS EVEN WARMER THAN THE
PREVIOUS RUN WITH 925 MB TEMPERATURES WARMING FROM +12C TUE...TO
+17C FRI... TO +19C OR +20C ON SAT... WITH WARM TEMPERATURES
LIKELY CONTINUING INTO EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK. HAVE GONE SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE MODEL CONSENSUS MAXIMUMS FOR NEXT SATURDAY...WITH
HIGHS SOARING TO 80 TO 85 ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
RECORDS FOR THAT DAY INCLUDE 85 AT WORCESTER AND 86 AT BOTH BOSTON
AND PROVIDENCE.

LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE PERIOD...SO ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE
DRY WE ARE NOT EXPECTING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. LOCAL SEA BREEZES
WILL OCCUR...ESPECIALLY FRI THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT THE GFS HAS A HINT OF A POTENTIAL BACKDOOR FRONT/TROUGH
OVER NORTHEAST MA ON SAT BUT THIS WAS NOT ENOUGH TO DETRACT FROM
THE VERY WARM FORECAST...AS YET.

AN UPPER LOW OVER VIRGINIA AND AN ASSOCIATED INVERTED TROUGH IS
LIKELY TO BE CAUSING PRECIPITATION IN THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
MID TO LATE IN THE WORK WEEK THAT TRIES TO WORK ITS WAY NORTHWARD.
THERE IS EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THIS AREA ONLY GETS AS
FAR NORTHWARD AS OFF THE NJ COAST BY FRI...BEFORE RETREATING
SOUTHWARD AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE
NORTHEAST ON THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

THROUGH 12Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING.
WITH A MIX OF ALL CATEGORIES...EXPECT THE GENERAL TREND THROUGH
12Z WILL BE TOWARD VFR FROM W-E. TIMING IN TAFS MAY BE OFF BY AN
HOUR OR SO...BUT ONCE WINDS PICK UP AND SHIFT MORE W-NW VFR SHOULD
DOMINATE THEREAFTER.

TODAY INTO TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR...ALTHOUGH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MAY LINGER AT ACK THROUGH MID
MORNING. WINDS MAINLY WNW TODAY...GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KT AT
TIMES THEN DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MAINLY VFR FROM NOW ON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MAINLY VFR FROM NOW ON.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TUE...VFR.
WED...VFR
THU...VFR.
FRI...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LOW PRESSURE PASSING NEAR
THE BENCHMARK WILL RESULT IN ENOUGH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SWELL FOR
SCA SEAS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS AND WESTERN SOUNDS.
SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD BECOME SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS
LATER TONIGHT. AREAS OF FOG...SOME LOCALLY DENSE...WILL OCCUR
ACROSS THE WATERS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF BOSTON HARBOR.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  SCA SEAS
ON THE WESTERN SOUNDS AND OUTER-WATERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...A PERIOD OF WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS IS POSSIBLE FOR A TIME ON MONDAY.
THEREFORE...IT IS POSSIBLE WE MAY NEED TO EXPAND SCA FOR A TIME
DURING THE DAY MONDAY INTO SOME OF THE NEARSHORE SOUNDS AND
WATERS. CONFIDENCE NOT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH TO DO THIS RIGHT NOW...
SO WILL DEFER TO THE NEXT SHIFT.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

TUE AND WED...SEAS NEAR 5 FT MAY LINGER AT TIMES TUE AND WED OVER
THE WATERS S AND E OF NANTUCKET. OTHERWISE WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD
BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. A NORTHEAST WIND GRADIENT
WILL INCREASE OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS TUE NIGHT INTO WED
AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BUT
GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY REACH 20 KT.

WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI...QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING THE WEATHER. WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR MAZ020>024.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     MAZ006-007-014.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/GAF
NEAR TERM...FRANK/DOODY/GAF
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...GAF
AVIATION...DOODY/GAF
MARINE...FRANK/GAF



000
FXUS61 KALY 220533
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
133 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...BRINGING A FEW MORE SHOWERS. COOLER AND BRISK
CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL RETURN FOR LATE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...MOST OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS
DRY...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...THEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 130 AM EDT...A PREFRONTAL TROUGH HAS MOVED EAST OF THE
REGION...ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO AFFECT AREAS FROM
AROUND THE HUDSON RIVER AND POINTS EAST. MOST OF THESE SHOWERS
SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM W TO E OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.

A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL THEN TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE REGION
BETWEEN ROUGHLY 2 AND 4 AM...ALLOWING FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS TO DEVELOP...PARTICULARLY IN VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY
SOUTH. DEPENDING ON HOW LIGHT WINDS BECOME...SOME PATCHY FOG COULD
DEVELOP DURING THIS TIME.

MEANWHILE...THE MAIN COLD FRONT...AND A POTENT UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TRACKING EASTWARD.
THESE FEATURES SHOULD ALLOW SCATTERED TO POSSIBLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS
TO REDEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS BETWEEN 3
AND 5 AM...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLY REACHING
PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...CATSKILLS...AND SOUTHERN
VT...AS WELL AS PERHAPS PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FROM
ALBANY NORTH...ESP TOWARD AND AFTER 5 AM.

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE TOWARD AND AFTER 5
AM...AS THE FRONT AND UPPER IMPULSE PASS THROUGH...AND WINDS
THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ALIGN FROM THE
WEST/NORTHWEST...ALLOWING FOR INCREASED DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER
AND SOME GUSTINESS TO DEVELOP.

TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID 50S IN MOST VALLEY
AREAS...WITH UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S EXPECTED FOR HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE TRAILING UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL KEEP CONDITIONS UNSTABLE ENOUGH
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY TO FORECAST POPS OF 20 TO 40
PERCENT ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...MAINLY DURING THE MORNING. ONLY
THE FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA IS FORECAST TO BE DRY. BY
LATER IN THE DAY...MOST OF THE REGION FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EAST IS
FORECAST TO BE DRY...WITH ONLY 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS TO THE WEST.
TEMPS ON MONDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL TROF.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S AND 60S...WITH A NORTHWEST WIND GUSTING UP
TO 30 MPH AT TIMES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE ENTIRE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL FEATURE PLENTY OF DAYTIME
SUNSHINE AND CLEAR SKIES EACH NIGHT...AS OUR REGION WILL BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A SPRAWLING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THE
RIDGE LOOKS TO BECOME FIRMLY ESTABLISHED WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...THEN EVEN STRENGTHEN OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE GFS/ECMWF
INDICATING 500 MB HEIGHTS INCREASING TO NEAR 590 DAM OVER THE
NORTHEAST CONUS. SINCE WE WILL BE APPROACHING THE END OF
SEPTEMBER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BUT NOT OPPRESSIVELY
HOT DUE TO LOWER SUN ANGLE AND LESS DAYLIGHT COMPARED TO DURING THE
SUMMER.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD INITIALLY BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN
START TO WARM AS THE AIR MASS MODIFIES. FULL OR NEAR-FULL SUNSHINE
EACH DAY WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN
MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
REMAIN IN THE COMFORTABLE RANGE...WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE
40S INCREASING INTO THE 50S OVER THE WEEKEND. OVERALL QUITE A
PLEASANT STRETCH OF WEATHER FOR THE LAST FULL WEEK OF SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM KPOU TO KPSF WELL AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT MOVING EAST QUICKLY...SO VCSH THERE THROUGH ABOUT 09Z-10Z.
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WITHIN THE BAND OF SHOWERS ARE VFR. THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE COLDER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS STILL IN
WESTERN/CENTRAL NY AND CEILINGS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE MVFR RANGE
THERE. SO...AFTER 09Z-10Z...THESE LOWER CEILINGS SHOULD SPREAD
ACROSS OUR REGION...FOR INTERVALS OF MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH ABOUT
13Z-14Z.

COLD FRONT EXITS THROUGH THE MORNING AND WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE...WHILE CEILINGS RISE BACK INTO THE VFR RANGE. CEILINGS
SHOULD REMAIN IN THE VFR RANGE MUCH OF TOMORROW AND COVERAGE OF
CLOUDS SHOULD DECREASE FROM VARIABLE BROKEN TO SCATTERED THROUGH THE
DAY.

WINDS FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST AT 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST BY DAYBREAK AND INCREASE
TO AROUND 15KT BY MID MORNING. WINDS SHOULD BE GUSTY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KT AT TIMES...THEN DIMINISHING
SLOWLY THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN LOWER TO
BETWEEN 45 AND 70 PERCENT ON MONDAY. THERE WILL BE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...THEN
WE DRY OUT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND BEGIN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
RAIN FREE WEATHER THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.

SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 20 MPH TODAY.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE TO 15 TO
20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...BRINGING
SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM. WHERE RAINFALL OCCURS...
AMOUNTS WILL BE A TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ACROSS ADIRONDACKS.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...KL/GJM/JPV
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...NAS/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM







000
FXUS61 KALY 220533
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
133 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...BRINGING A FEW MORE SHOWERS. COOLER AND BRISK
CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL RETURN FOR LATE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...MOST OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS
DRY...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...THEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 130 AM EDT...A PREFRONTAL TROUGH HAS MOVED EAST OF THE
REGION...ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO AFFECT AREAS FROM
AROUND THE HUDSON RIVER AND POINTS EAST. MOST OF THESE SHOWERS
SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM W TO E OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.

A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL THEN TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE REGION
BETWEEN ROUGHLY 2 AND 4 AM...ALLOWING FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS TO DEVELOP...PARTICULARLY IN VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY
SOUTH. DEPENDING ON HOW LIGHT WINDS BECOME...SOME PATCHY FOG COULD
DEVELOP DURING THIS TIME.

MEANWHILE...THE MAIN COLD FRONT...AND A POTENT UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TRACKING EASTWARD.
THESE FEATURES SHOULD ALLOW SCATTERED TO POSSIBLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS
TO REDEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS BETWEEN 3
AND 5 AM...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLY REACHING
PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...CATSKILLS...AND SOUTHERN
VT...AS WELL AS PERHAPS PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FROM
ALBANY NORTH...ESP TOWARD AND AFTER 5 AM.

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE TOWARD AND AFTER 5
AM...AS THE FRONT AND UPPER IMPULSE PASS THROUGH...AND WINDS
THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ALIGN FROM THE
WEST/NORTHWEST...ALLOWING FOR INCREASED DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER
AND SOME GUSTINESS TO DEVELOP.

TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID 50S IN MOST VALLEY
AREAS...WITH UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S EXPECTED FOR HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE TRAILING UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL KEEP CONDITIONS UNSTABLE ENOUGH
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY TO FORECAST POPS OF 20 TO 40
PERCENT ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...MAINLY DURING THE MORNING. ONLY
THE FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA IS FORECAST TO BE DRY. BY
LATER IN THE DAY...MOST OF THE REGION FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EAST IS
FORECAST TO BE DRY...WITH ONLY 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS TO THE WEST.
TEMPS ON MONDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL TROF.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S AND 60S...WITH A NORTHWEST WIND GUSTING UP
TO 30 MPH AT TIMES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE ENTIRE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL FEATURE PLENTY OF DAYTIME
SUNSHINE AND CLEAR SKIES EACH NIGHT...AS OUR REGION WILL BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A SPRAWLING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THE
RIDGE LOOKS TO BECOME FIRMLY ESTABLISHED WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...THEN EVEN STRENGTHEN OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE GFS/ECMWF
INDICATING 500 MB HEIGHTS INCREASING TO NEAR 590 DAM OVER THE
NORTHEAST CONUS. SINCE WE WILL BE APPROACHING THE END OF
SEPTEMBER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BUT NOT OPPRESSIVELY
HOT DUE TO LOWER SUN ANGLE AND LESS DAYLIGHT COMPARED TO DURING THE
SUMMER.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD INITIALLY BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN
START TO WARM AS THE AIR MASS MODIFIES. FULL OR NEAR-FULL SUNSHINE
EACH DAY WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN
MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
REMAIN IN THE COMFORTABLE RANGE...WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE
40S INCREASING INTO THE 50S OVER THE WEEKEND. OVERALL QUITE A
PLEASANT STRETCH OF WEATHER FOR THE LAST FULL WEEK OF SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM KPOU TO KPSF WELL AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT MOVING EAST QUICKLY...SO VCSH THERE THROUGH ABOUT 09Z-10Z.
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WITHIN THE BAND OF SHOWERS ARE VFR. THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE COLDER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS STILL IN
WESTERN/CENTRAL NY AND CEILINGS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE MVFR RANGE
THERE. SO...AFTER 09Z-10Z...THESE LOWER CEILINGS SHOULD SPREAD
ACROSS OUR REGION...FOR INTERVALS OF MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH ABOUT
13Z-14Z.

COLD FRONT EXITS THROUGH THE MORNING AND WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE...WHILE CEILINGS RISE BACK INTO THE VFR RANGE. CEILINGS
SHOULD REMAIN IN THE VFR RANGE MUCH OF TOMORROW AND COVERAGE OF
CLOUDS SHOULD DECREASE FROM VARIABLE BROKEN TO SCATTERED THROUGH THE
DAY.

WINDS FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST AT 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST BY DAYBREAK AND INCREASE
TO AROUND 15KT BY MID MORNING. WINDS SHOULD BE GUSTY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KT AT TIMES...THEN DIMINISHING
SLOWLY THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN LOWER TO
BETWEEN 45 AND 70 PERCENT ON MONDAY. THERE WILL BE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...THEN
WE DRY OUT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND BEGIN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
RAIN FREE WEATHER THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.

SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 20 MPH TODAY.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE TO 15 TO
20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...BRINGING
SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM. WHERE RAINFALL OCCURS...
AMOUNTS WILL BE A TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ACROSS ADIRONDACKS.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...KL/GJM/JPV
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...NAS/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM








000
FXUS61 KOKX 220450
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1250 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE TRI-STATE OVERNIGHT...MEANWHILE A COASTAL
LOW TRACKS TO THE EAST...THEN NORTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH TUESDAY. THE HIGH
THEN DOMINATES THE WEATHER THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST SEEMS TO BE THROUGH ORANGE
COUNTY NY AS OF 04Z AND WILL CONTINUE EAST. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
ARE ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT. EVEN WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE...SHOWERS ARE
NOT DISSIPATING AS QUICKLY AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. HAVE ADDED POPS
FOR LONG ISLAND AND CENTRAL/EASTERN CT THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

PATCHY FOG STILL IN PLACE OVER OUR EASTERN CT COUNTIES AND
CLEARING UP OVER LONG ISLAND. EXPECT FOG TO LIFT WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE COLD FRONT. FOG COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE AT TIMES.

OTHERWISE...MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO T/TD BASED ON TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
REGION REMAINS UNDER THE BASE OF 700-500 HPA TROUGH MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE A FEW SHORTWAVES ROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH - BUT GIVEN FORECAST DRYING IN THE LOW LEVELS WOULD ONLY
EXPECT AT MOST SOME CLOUDS AS THEY PASS. SO GOING WITH A MOSTLY
SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY MONDAY AND A MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR SKY
MONDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT.

FOR HIGHS MONDAY USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 875 HPA...EXCEPT
850 HPA OVER THE NW 1/4 OF THE CWA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE. EXPECT
READINGS TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR LOWS MONDAY NIGHT - WITH
READINGS FORECAST TO BE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF ORANGE COUNTY.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC BEACHES
MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE EAST COAST TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH SUNDAY.

AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WHILE
ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM CENTRAL CANADA. THE COMBINED
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND
THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH THEN
BUILDS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY AND REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY INTO
SUNDAY. INITIALLY THE AIR MASS WILL BE COOL TUESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A
WARMING TREND SETS UP FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE AIR
MASS MODIFIES. NEXT WEEKEND TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE REBOUNDED TO
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A CDFNT...PASSING THROUGH THE NYC METRO AS OF 05Z...WILL MOVE EAST
OF ALL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT.

LIGHT SW FLOW SWITCHES TO NW AND INCREASES BEHIND THE FRONT.
STRONG NW FLOW MON WITH ISOLD GUSTS TO 30KT.

IFR CIGS ACROSS ERN TERMINALS...BECOMES VFR BEHIND THE FRONT. A
FEW -SHRA POSSIBLE INVOF THE FRONT...THEN VFR THRU THE REMAINDER
OF THE TAF PERIOD.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUE THROUGH THU...
.MON NIGHT...VFR. NW WINDS DIMINISHING.
.TUE...VFR WITH LGT WINDS.
.WED...MVFR CIGS AROUND 3000FT POSSIBLE. ENE WINDS 5-15KT.
.THU...VFR WITH LGT NE FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS BUILD TO UP TO 5 FT ON THE WESTERN COASTAL OCEAN WATERS AND
UP TO 8 FT ON THE EASTERN COASTAL OCEAN WATERS OVERNIGHT. WITH WIND
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS ON MONDAY - WILL
CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. SCA WIND GUSTS SHOULD LINGER
OVER THE EASTERN TWO COASTAL WATER ZONES INTO MONDAY EVENING AND
SCA LEVEL SEAS THROUGH THE NIGHT IN THOSE TWO ZONES...SO HAVE
EXTENDED THE SCA FOR ANZ-350 AND 353 THROUGH 10Z TUESDAY AS A
RESULT.

ON THE REMAINDER OF THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE
CURRENTLY EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT ARE
FORECAST ON MONDAY - HOWEVER OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25KT CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ACROSS THE EXTREME OUTER
OCEAN WATERS EAST OF MORICHES INLET VERY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS
SEAS WILL BE SUBSIDING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WATERS TUESDAY INTO SATURDAY WIND AND
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LITTLE IF ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
THE PASSING OF A COASTAL LOW TO THE EAST AND THE PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT.

DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/MET
NEAR TERM...LN/DS
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...JMC/GOODMAN
MARINE...MALOIT/MET
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT









000
FXUS61 KOKX 220450
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1250 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE TRI-STATE OVERNIGHT...MEANWHILE A COASTAL
LOW TRACKS TO THE EAST...THEN NORTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH TUESDAY. THE HIGH
THEN DOMINATES THE WEATHER THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST SEEMS TO BE THROUGH ORANGE
COUNTY NY AS OF 04Z AND WILL CONTINUE EAST. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
ARE ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT. EVEN WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE...SHOWERS ARE
NOT DISSIPATING AS QUICKLY AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. HAVE ADDED POPS
FOR LONG ISLAND AND CENTRAL/EASTERN CT THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

PATCHY FOG STILL IN PLACE OVER OUR EASTERN CT COUNTIES AND
CLEARING UP OVER LONG ISLAND. EXPECT FOG TO LIFT WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE COLD FRONT. FOG COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE AT TIMES.

OTHERWISE...MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO T/TD BASED ON TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
REGION REMAINS UNDER THE BASE OF 700-500 HPA TROUGH MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE A FEW SHORTWAVES ROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH - BUT GIVEN FORECAST DRYING IN THE LOW LEVELS WOULD ONLY
EXPECT AT MOST SOME CLOUDS AS THEY PASS. SO GOING WITH A MOSTLY
SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY MONDAY AND A MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR SKY
MONDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT.

FOR HIGHS MONDAY USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 875 HPA...EXCEPT
850 HPA OVER THE NW 1/4 OF THE CWA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE. EXPECT
READINGS TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR LOWS MONDAY NIGHT - WITH
READINGS FORECAST TO BE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF ORANGE COUNTY.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC BEACHES
MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE EAST COAST TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH SUNDAY.

AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WHILE
ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM CENTRAL CANADA. THE COMBINED
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND
THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH THEN
BUILDS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY AND REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY INTO
SUNDAY. INITIALLY THE AIR MASS WILL BE COOL TUESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A
WARMING TREND SETS UP FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE AIR
MASS MODIFIES. NEXT WEEKEND TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE REBOUNDED TO
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A CDFNT...PASSING THROUGH THE NYC METRO AS OF 05Z...WILL MOVE EAST
OF ALL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT.

LIGHT SW FLOW SWITCHES TO NW AND INCREASES BEHIND THE FRONT.
STRONG NW FLOW MON WITH ISOLD GUSTS TO 30KT.

IFR CIGS ACROSS ERN TERMINALS...BECOMES VFR BEHIND THE FRONT. A
FEW -SHRA POSSIBLE INVOF THE FRONT...THEN VFR THRU THE REMAINDER
OF THE TAF PERIOD.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUE THROUGH THU...
.MON NIGHT...VFR. NW WINDS DIMINISHING.
.TUE...VFR WITH LGT WINDS.
.WED...MVFR CIGS AROUND 3000FT POSSIBLE. ENE WINDS 5-15KT.
.THU...VFR WITH LGT NE FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS BUILD TO UP TO 5 FT ON THE WESTERN COASTAL OCEAN WATERS AND
UP TO 8 FT ON THE EASTERN COASTAL OCEAN WATERS OVERNIGHT. WITH WIND
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS ON MONDAY - WILL
CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. SCA WIND GUSTS SHOULD LINGER
OVER THE EASTERN TWO COASTAL WATER ZONES INTO MONDAY EVENING AND
SCA LEVEL SEAS THROUGH THE NIGHT IN THOSE TWO ZONES...SO HAVE
EXTENDED THE SCA FOR ANZ-350 AND 353 THROUGH 10Z TUESDAY AS A
RESULT.

ON THE REMAINDER OF THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE
CURRENTLY EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT ARE
FORECAST ON MONDAY - HOWEVER OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25KT CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ACROSS THE EXTREME OUTER
OCEAN WATERS EAST OF MORICHES INLET VERY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS
SEAS WILL BE SUBSIDING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WATERS TUESDAY INTO SATURDAY WIND AND
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LITTLE IF ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
THE PASSING OF A COASTAL LOW TO THE EAST AND THE PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT.

DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/MET
NEAR TERM...LN/DS
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...JMC/GOODMAN
MARINE...MALOIT/MET
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT










000
FXUS61 KALY 220252
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1052 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...BRINGING A FEW MORE SHOWERS. COOLER AND BRISK
CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL RETURN FOR LATE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...MOST OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS
DRY...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...THEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1052 PM...MOST OF THE SCATTERED CONVECTIVE SHOWERS HAVE
SHIFTED EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION INTO THE TACONICS AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND. THIS ACTIVITY SEEMS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH THAT CAN BE SEEN ON SURFACE PRESSURE ANALYSIS AHEAD
OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT FARTHER UPSTREAM OVER CENTRAL NY. NOT MUCH
SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE ACTUAL FRONT...AS DAYTIME HEATING HAS
BEEN LOST.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE AREA INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
FRONT. SOME ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH
AND WEST OF ALBANY LATER TONIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY
OVER WESTERN NY AND THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES MOVES IN. MOST OF THE
AREA WILL BE DRY THOUGH ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE TRAILING UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL KEEP CONDITIONS UNSTABLE ENOUGH
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY TO FORECAST POPS OF 20 TO 40
PERCENT ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...MAINLY DURING THE MORNING. ONLY
THE FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA IS FORECAST TO BE DRY. BY
LATER IN THE DAY...MOST OF THE REGION FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EAST IS
FORECAST TO BE DRY...WITH ONLY 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS TO THE WEST.
TEMPS ON MONDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL TROF.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S AND 60S...WITH A NORTHWEST WIND GUSTING UP
TO 30 MPH AT TIMES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE ENTIRE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL FEATURE PLENTY OF DAYTIME
SUNSHINE AND CLEAR SKIES EACH NIGHT...AS OUR REGION WILL BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A SPRAWLING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THE
RIDGE LOOKS TO BECOME FIRMLY ESTABLISHED WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...THEN EVEN STRENGTHEN OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE GFS/ECMWF
INDICATING 500 MB HEIGHTS INCREASING TO NEAR 590 DAM OVER THE
NORTHEAST CONUS. SINCE WE WILL BE APPROACHING THE END OF
SEPTEMBER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BUT NOT OPPRESSIVELY
HOT DUE TO LOWER SUN ANGLE AND LESS DAYLIGHT COMPARED TO DURING THE
SUMMER.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD INITIALLY BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN
START TO WARM AS THE AIR MASS MODIFIES. FULL OR NEAR-FULL SUNSHINE
EACH DAY WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN
MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
REMAIN IN THE COMFORTABLE RANGE...WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE
40S INCREASING INTO THE 50S OVER THE WEEKEND. OVERALL QUITE A
PLEASANT STRETCH OF WEATHER FOR THE LAST FULL WEEK OF SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT PUSHING EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK EARLY THIS
EVENING...WILL STEADILY ADVANCE EASTWARD AND CROSS THE TERMINALS
BETWEEN LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. BROKEN LINES OF CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AS THEY APPROACH THE
HUDSON VALLEY BETWEEN 00Z-03Z...BUT COULD STILL PRODUCE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SHOWERS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND MVFR CONDITIONS. WILL
MENTION TEMPOS FOR KALB/KGFL/KPSF BUT ONLY VCSH AT KPOU SINCE IT IS
LESS CERTAIN SHOWERS WILL HOLD TOGETHER FARTHER SOUTH.

THE COLD FRONT WILL LAG BEHIND THE SHOWERS BY A FEW HOURS...BUT
SHOULD CLEAR THE ENTIRE AREA BY AROUND 06Z. THEN VARYING MVFR/VFR
CIGS WILL BE PREVALENT WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME SETTING UP
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING IN DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS WITH BKN CIGS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF
MONDAY...BEFORE SKIES START TO CLEAR BY DARK.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 5-10 KT PRECEDING THE COLD
FRONT...THEN SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND INCREASE TO
SPEEDS OF 12-16 KT ON MONDAY. GUSTS OVER 20 OR EVEN 25 KT WILL BE
COMMON FROM LATE MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN LOWER TO
BETWEEN 45 AND 70 PERCENT ON MONDAY. THERE WILL BE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...THEN
WE DRY OUT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND BEGIN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
RAIN FREE WEATHER THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.

SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 20 MPH TODAY.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE TO 15 TO
20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...BRINGING
SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM. WHERE RAINFALL OCCURS...
AMOUNTS WILL BE A TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ACROSS ADIRONDACKS.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/JPV
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM








000
FXUS61 KALY 220252
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1052 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...BRINGING A FEW MORE SHOWERS. COOLER AND BRISK
CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL RETURN FOR LATE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...MOST OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS
DRY...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...THEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1052 PM...MOST OF THE SCATTERED CONVECTIVE SHOWERS HAVE
SHIFTED EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION INTO THE TACONICS AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND. THIS ACTIVITY SEEMS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH THAT CAN BE SEEN ON SURFACE PRESSURE ANALYSIS AHEAD
OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT FARTHER UPSTREAM OVER CENTRAL NY. NOT MUCH
SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE ACTUAL FRONT...AS DAYTIME HEATING HAS
BEEN LOST.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE AREA INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
FRONT. SOME ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH
AND WEST OF ALBANY LATER TONIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY
OVER WESTERN NY AND THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES MOVES IN. MOST OF THE
AREA WILL BE DRY THOUGH ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE TRAILING UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL KEEP CONDITIONS UNSTABLE ENOUGH
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY TO FORECAST POPS OF 20 TO 40
PERCENT ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...MAINLY DURING THE MORNING. ONLY
THE FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA IS FORECAST TO BE DRY. BY
LATER IN THE DAY...MOST OF THE REGION FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EAST IS
FORECAST TO BE DRY...WITH ONLY 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS TO THE WEST.
TEMPS ON MONDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL TROF.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S AND 60S...WITH A NORTHWEST WIND GUSTING UP
TO 30 MPH AT TIMES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE ENTIRE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL FEATURE PLENTY OF DAYTIME
SUNSHINE AND CLEAR SKIES EACH NIGHT...AS OUR REGION WILL BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A SPRAWLING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THE
RIDGE LOOKS TO BECOME FIRMLY ESTABLISHED WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...THEN EVEN STRENGTHEN OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE GFS/ECMWF
INDICATING 500 MB HEIGHTS INCREASING TO NEAR 590 DAM OVER THE
NORTHEAST CONUS. SINCE WE WILL BE APPROACHING THE END OF
SEPTEMBER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BUT NOT OPPRESSIVELY
HOT DUE TO LOWER SUN ANGLE AND LESS DAYLIGHT COMPARED TO DURING THE
SUMMER.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD INITIALLY BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN
START TO WARM AS THE AIR MASS MODIFIES. FULL OR NEAR-FULL SUNSHINE
EACH DAY WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN
MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
REMAIN IN THE COMFORTABLE RANGE...WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE
40S INCREASING INTO THE 50S OVER THE WEEKEND. OVERALL QUITE A
PLEASANT STRETCH OF WEATHER FOR THE LAST FULL WEEK OF SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT PUSHING EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK EARLY THIS
EVENING...WILL STEADILY ADVANCE EASTWARD AND CROSS THE TERMINALS
BETWEEN LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. BROKEN LINES OF CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AS THEY APPROACH THE
HUDSON VALLEY BETWEEN 00Z-03Z...BUT COULD STILL PRODUCE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SHOWERS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND MVFR CONDITIONS. WILL
MENTION TEMPOS FOR KALB/KGFL/KPSF BUT ONLY VCSH AT KPOU SINCE IT IS
LESS CERTAIN SHOWERS WILL HOLD TOGETHER FARTHER SOUTH.

THE COLD FRONT WILL LAG BEHIND THE SHOWERS BY A FEW HOURS...BUT
SHOULD CLEAR THE ENTIRE AREA BY AROUND 06Z. THEN VARYING MVFR/VFR
CIGS WILL BE PREVALENT WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME SETTING UP
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING IN DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS WITH BKN CIGS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF
MONDAY...BEFORE SKIES START TO CLEAR BY DARK.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 5-10 KT PRECEDING THE COLD
FRONT...THEN SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND INCREASE TO
SPEEDS OF 12-16 KT ON MONDAY. GUSTS OVER 20 OR EVEN 25 KT WILL BE
COMMON FROM LATE MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN LOWER TO
BETWEEN 45 AND 70 PERCENT ON MONDAY. THERE WILL BE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...THEN
WE DRY OUT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND BEGIN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
RAIN FREE WEATHER THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.

SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 20 MPH TODAY.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE TO 15 TO
20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...BRINGING
SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM. WHERE RAINFALL OCCURS...
AMOUNTS WILL BE A TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ACROSS ADIRONDACKS.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/JPV
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM







000
FXUS61 KOKX 220244
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1044 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING...AND CROSSES
THE TRI-STATE TONIGHT...MEANWHILE A COASTAL LOW TRACKS TO THE
EAST...THEN NORTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH TUESDAY. THE HIGH THEN DOMINATES
THE WEATHER THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY ABOUT 100 MILES SE OF MONTAUK
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST. PRECIPITATION WITH
THIS LOW HAS ENDED. MEANWHILE...THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO TRACK
EAST TOWARDS THE REGION WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT. THE
SHOWERS HAVE WEAKENED A LITTLE SLOWER THAN ANTICIPATED SO HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST TRENDS. THE LINE WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND THE
BEST DYNAMICS MOVING NW OF THE CWA.

HAVE ALSO SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED LOWS TONIGHT FOLLOWING LATEST TRENDS
IN LAV GUIDANCE. VALUES STILL FORECAST TO BE 4 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL OUTSIDE OF THE NYC HEAT ISLAND...AND NEAR NORMAL INSIDE THE
HEAT ISLAND AND AREAS TO THE N/W OF NYC DUE TO THE TIMING OF THE
COLD FRONT.

ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG THIS EVENING OVER SE CT/THE
TWIN FORKS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WHILE LOCALLY DENSE FOG CANNOT
BE RULED OUT - AM CURRENTLY NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN ITS POTENTIAL
TO ISSUE ANY STATEMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
REGION REMAINS UNDER THE BASE OF 700-500 HPA TROUGH MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE A FEW SHORTWAVES ROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH - BUT GIVEN FORECAST DRYING IN THE LOW LEVELS WOULD ONLY
EXPECT AT MOST SOME CLOUDS AS THEY PASS. SO GOING WITH A MOSTLY
SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY MONDAY AND A MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR SKY
MONDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT.

FOR HIGHS MONDAY USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 875 HPA...EXCEPT
850 HPA OVER THE NW 1/4 OF THE CWA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE. EXPECT
READINGS TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR LOWS MONDAY NIGHT - WITH
READINGS FORECAST TO BE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF ORANGE COUNTY.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC BEACHES
MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE EAST COAST TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH SUNDAY.

AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WHILE
ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM CENTRAL CANADA. THE COMBINED
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND
THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH THEN
BUILDS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY AND REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY INTO
SUNDAY. INITIALLY THE AIR MASS WILL BE COOL TUESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A
WARMING TREND SETS UP FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE AIR
MASS MODIFIES. NEXT WEEKEND TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE REBOUNDED TO
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A CDFNT ACROSS UPSTATE NY WILL PASS THRU THE REGION OVERNIGHT.

LGT AND VRB WINDS BECOMING SW AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER. WINDS
SWITCH TO THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT. STRONG NW FLOW MON WITH ISOLD
GUSTS TO 30KT.

MAINLY VFR AHEAD OF THE FRONT...HOWEVER OCNL MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE IN
THE CITY AND IFR ERN TERMINALS. A FEW -SHRA POSSIBLE INVOF THE
FRONT...THEN VFR THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUE THROUGH THU...
.MON NIGHT...VFR. NW WINDS DIMINISHING.
.TUE...VFR WITH LGT WINDS.
.WED...MVFR CIGS AROUND 3000FT POSSIBLE. ENE WINDS 5-15KT.
.THU...VFR WITH LGT NE FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS BUILD TO UP TO 5 FT ON THE WESTERN COASTAL OCEAN WATERS AND
UP TO 8 FT ON THE EASTERN COASTAL OCEAN WATERS BY LATE TONIGHT.
WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS ON MONDAY
- HAVE CONVERTED SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS TO A PLAIN SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY. SCA WIND GUSTS SHOULD LINGER OVER THE EASTERN TWO
COASTAL WATER ZONES INTO MONDAY EVENING AND SCA LEVEL SEAS THROUGH
THE NIGHT IN THOSE TWO ZONES...SO HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA FOR
ANZ-350 AND 353 THROUGH 10Z TUESDAY AS A RESULT.

ON THE REMAINDER OF THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE
CURRENTLY EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT ARE
FORECAST ON MONDAY - HOWEVER OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25KT CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ACROSS THE EXTREME OUTER
OCEAN WATERS EAST OF MORICHES INLET VERY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS
SEAS WILL BE SUBSIDING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WATERS TUESDAY INTO SATURDAY WIND AND
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LITTLE IF ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
THE PASSING OF A COASTAL LOW TO THE EAST AND THE PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT.

DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/MET
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/DS/MET
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...JMC/GOODMAN
MARINE...MALOIT/MET
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT






000
FXUS61 KOKX 220244
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1044 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING...AND CROSSES
THE TRI-STATE TONIGHT...MEANWHILE A COASTAL LOW TRACKS TO THE
EAST...THEN NORTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH TUESDAY. THE HIGH THEN DOMINATES
THE WEATHER THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY ABOUT 100 MILES SE OF MONTAUK
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST. PRECIPITATION WITH
THIS LOW HAS ENDED. MEANWHILE...THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO TRACK
EAST TOWARDS THE REGION WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT. THE
SHOWERS HAVE WEAKENED A LITTLE SLOWER THAN ANTICIPATED SO HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST TRENDS. THE LINE WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND THE
BEST DYNAMICS MOVING NW OF THE CWA.

HAVE ALSO SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED LOWS TONIGHT FOLLOWING LATEST TRENDS
IN LAV GUIDANCE. VALUES STILL FORECAST TO BE 4 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL OUTSIDE OF THE NYC HEAT ISLAND...AND NEAR NORMAL INSIDE THE
HEAT ISLAND AND AREAS TO THE N/W OF NYC DUE TO THE TIMING OF THE
COLD FRONT.

ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG THIS EVENING OVER SE CT/THE
TWIN FORKS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WHILE LOCALLY DENSE FOG CANNOT
BE RULED OUT - AM CURRENTLY NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN ITS POTENTIAL
TO ISSUE ANY STATEMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
REGION REMAINS UNDER THE BASE OF 700-500 HPA TROUGH MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE A FEW SHORTWAVES ROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH - BUT GIVEN FORECAST DRYING IN THE LOW LEVELS WOULD ONLY
EXPECT AT MOST SOME CLOUDS AS THEY PASS. SO GOING WITH A MOSTLY
SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY MONDAY AND A MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR SKY
MONDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT.

FOR HIGHS MONDAY USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 875 HPA...EXCEPT
850 HPA OVER THE NW 1/4 OF THE CWA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE. EXPECT
READINGS TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR LOWS MONDAY NIGHT - WITH
READINGS FORECAST TO BE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF ORANGE COUNTY.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC BEACHES
MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE EAST COAST TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH SUNDAY.

AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WHILE
ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM CENTRAL CANADA. THE COMBINED
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND
THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH THEN
BUILDS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY AND REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY INTO
SUNDAY. INITIALLY THE AIR MASS WILL BE COOL TUESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A
WARMING TREND SETS UP FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE AIR
MASS MODIFIES. NEXT WEEKEND TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE REBOUNDED TO
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A CDFNT ACROSS UPSTATE NY WILL PASS THRU THE REGION OVERNIGHT.

LGT AND VRB WINDS BECOMING SW AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER. WINDS
SWITCH TO THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT. STRONG NW FLOW MON WITH ISOLD
GUSTS TO 30KT.

MAINLY VFR AHEAD OF THE FRONT...HOWEVER OCNL MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE IN
THE CITY AND IFR ERN TERMINALS. A FEW -SHRA POSSIBLE INVOF THE
FRONT...THEN VFR THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUE THROUGH THU...
.MON NIGHT...VFR. NW WINDS DIMINISHING.
.TUE...VFR WITH LGT WINDS.
.WED...MVFR CIGS AROUND 3000FT POSSIBLE. ENE WINDS 5-15KT.
.THU...VFR WITH LGT NE FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS BUILD TO UP TO 5 FT ON THE WESTERN COASTAL OCEAN WATERS AND
UP TO 8 FT ON THE EASTERN COASTAL OCEAN WATERS BY LATE TONIGHT.
WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS ON MONDAY
- HAVE CONVERTED SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS TO A PLAIN SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY. SCA WIND GUSTS SHOULD LINGER OVER THE EASTERN TWO
COASTAL WATER ZONES INTO MONDAY EVENING AND SCA LEVEL SEAS THROUGH
THE NIGHT IN THOSE TWO ZONES...SO HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA FOR
ANZ-350 AND 353 THROUGH 10Z TUESDAY AS A RESULT.

ON THE REMAINDER OF THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE
CURRENTLY EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT ARE
FORECAST ON MONDAY - HOWEVER OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25KT CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ACROSS THE EXTREME OUTER
OCEAN WATERS EAST OF MORICHES INLET VERY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS
SEAS WILL BE SUBSIDING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WATERS TUESDAY INTO SATURDAY WIND AND
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LITTLE IF ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
THE PASSING OF A COASTAL LOW TO THE EAST AND THE PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT.

DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/MET
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/DS/MET
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...JMC/GOODMAN
MARINE...MALOIT/MET
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT







000
FXUS61 KBOX 220200
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1000 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN WILL AFFECT THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND
COAST THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...DRIER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER IS
ON TAP FOR MONDAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNNY DAYS AND CLEAR NIGHTS TO THE
REGION FROM TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH A WARMING TREND. WE
COULD APPROACH RECORD WARMTH ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...

A BAND OF STEADY RAIN HAS GENERALLY DIMINISHED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
E MA THIS EVENING AS LOW PRES DEVELOPING OFFSHORE BEGINS TO SHIFT
NE. A FEW MORE SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN FROM THIS BUT JUST
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. OTHERWISE...HAVE BEEN WATCHING A
DOWNWARD TREND IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN NY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
COLD FRONT...STILL A BIT OF -SHRA ACTIVITY LEFT...BUT NOT MUCH
CONVECTION. LOOKS LIKE MAINLY WRN MA AND SW NH WILL BE HAVE THIS
RAIN IN THE CARDS BUT GENERALLY AFTER 03Z. AFTER THAT...THE RAPID
ENTRAINMENT OF DRY AIR...LONG SINCE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING AND
SHIFT OF BEST DYNAMICS INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD ALLOW FOR MOST
OF THESE TO DISSIPATE SUCH THAT VERY LITTLE ACTIVITY...ASIDE FROM
A BRIEF GUST OF WIND AND WIND SHIFT...IS SEEN ELSEWHERE WITH THIS
FROPA.

OTHERWISE...A POCKET OF VERY DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED FROM THE N
SHORE OF MA INTO COASTAL MAINE. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE
MORNING HOURS. HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA.
OTHERWISE...ONLY OTHER LOCATIONS REPORTING UNDER HALF A MILE ARE
ORH AND TAN...BUT FEEL THESE ARE LIKELY MORE COLOCATED WITH THE
AIRPORT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITH DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS ALLOWED
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUED TO AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  WE SHOULD SEE THIS ACTIVITY DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST WHICH WILL BE TRACKING NORTHEAST AND PASSING NEAR THE
BENCHMARK THIS EVENING. THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW FAR NORTHWEST
THE RAIN SHIELD WILL GET. LATEST NEAR TERM GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
TRENDING FURTHER NORTHWEST. THEREFORE...EXPECT A PERIOD OF STEADY
RAIN ACROSS THE CAPE/ISLANDS AND PROBABLY FURTHER NORTHWEST INTO
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MA/RHODE ISLAND FOR AT LEAST A TIME. IN
FACT...LATEST HRRR SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MA COAST INCLUDING BOSTON. NOT SURE IF
IT WILL GET THAT FAR NORTHWEST...BUT ITS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.
REGARDLESS...THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS NANTUCKET...
WHERE BETWEEN 0.50 TO PERHAPS UP TO 1 INCH OF RAIN MAY OCCUR.
THE RAIN MAY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING ACROSS THE CAPE
AND ISLANDS...BUT SHOULD WIND DOWN NEAR OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT.

MEANWHILE...ONCE THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SCATTERED SHOWERS WIND DOWN EARLY THIS EVENING...THE REST OF THE
REGION WILL MAINLY BE DRY TONIGHT.  HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING OUR WESTERN ZONES TOWARD MIDNIGHT.  WHILE SHEAR IS QUITE
IMPRESSIVE...VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY WILL BE LEFT.  SO WHILE WE MAY
SEE A FEW SPOT SHOWERS AFFECT OUR WESTERN ZONES...THEY WILL BE IN
THE PROCESS OF WEAKENING AND NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN THAT. LOW
TEMPS WILL ONLY BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 50S AND THE LOWER 60S BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY...

A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL WORK INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. WHILE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED EARLY...MAY SEE A SCATTERED TO BROKEN DECK OF STRATO-
CUMULUS CLOUDS WORK INTO AT LEAST THE INTERIOR BY AFTERNOON. HIGHS
SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE INTERIOR...BUT STILL WILL
REACH BETWEEN 70 AND 75 ALONG HE COASTAL PLAIN. GUSTY WEST WINDS
OF 20 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED AS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWING VERY GOOD
MIXING.

HIGH SURF...GIVEN LARGE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SWELL FROM DEPARTING
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAVE ISSUED A HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR THE
SOUTH COAST ON MONDAY.  WE ISSUE HIGH SURF PRODUCTS THROUGH THE END
OF SEPTEMBER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

MONDAY NIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.  THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR DIMINISHING WINDS AND SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR.  LOOKS LIKE
A PRETTY GOOD NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING...WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT
IN THE UPPER 30S TO THE MIDDLE 40S IN MOST LOCALES.  THE URBAN HEAT
ISLAND OF BOSTON WILL BE THE MILD SPOT WITH THE LOW BOTTOMING OUT
NEAR 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD
* NEAR RECORD WARMTH POSSIBLE NEXT SATURDAY

OVERVIEW...
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST MODEL GUIDANCE THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEPARTS THE NORTHEAST STATES ON
TUESDAY. THEN...MUCH ADO ABOUT BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE...BOTH AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE
IS VERY STRONG AS IT IS PARKED FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND BY NEXT WEEKEND.

DETAILS... TUESDAY WILL FEATURE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXCEPT ONLY
PARTLY SUNNY NW MA AND SW NH CLOSER TO SOME HIGHER 925 MB
HUMIDITY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SUNNY DAYS AND CLEAR NIGHTS THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND. HAVE GONE A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN MODEL CONSENSUS
TEMPERATURE MINIMUMS THROUGH THU DUE TO EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING EXPECTED ALONG WITH VERY DRY DEWPOINTS. AS THE CENTER OF
THE UPPER HIGH APPROACHES...AM EXPECTING A DRAMATIC WARMUP FRI
AND ESPECIALLY SAT. THE 12Z ECMWF RUN IS EVEN WARMER THAN THE
PREVIOUS RUN WITH 925 MB TEMPERATURES WARMING FROM +12C TUE...TO
+17C FRI... TO +19C OR +20C ON SAT... WITH WARM TEMPERATURES
LIKELY CONTINUING INTO EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK. HAVE GONE SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE MODEL CONSENSUS MAXIMUMS FOR NEXT SATURDAY...WITH
HIGHS SOARING TO 80 TO 85 ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
RECORDS FOR THAT DAY INCLUDE 85 AT WORCESTER AND 86 AT BOTH BOSTON
AND PROVIDENCE.

LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE PERIOD...SO ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE
DRY WE ARE NOT EXPECTING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. LOCAL SEA BREEZES
WILL OCCUR...ESPECIALLY FRI THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT THE GFS HAS A HINT OF A POTENTIAL BACKDOOR FRONT/TROUGH
OVER NORTHEAST MA ON SAT BUT THIS WAS NOT ENOUGH TO DETRACT FROM
THE VERY WARM FORECAST...AS YET.

AN UPPER LOW OVER VIRGINIA AND AN ASSOCIATED INVERTED TROUGH IS
LIKELY TO BE CAUSING PRECIPITATION IN THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
MID TO LATE IN THE WORK WEEK THAT TRIES TO WORK ITS WAY NORTHWARD.
THERE IS EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THIS AREA ONLY GETS AS
FAR NORTHWARD AS OFF THE NJ COAST BY FRI...BEFORE RETREATING
SOUTHWARD AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE
NORTHEAST ON THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME
LOW IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST MA INCLUDING THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS WITH VISIBILITIES BELOW 1/2 MILE AT TIMES IN LOCALLY DENSE
FOG. MOST OF THE REST OF THE REGION WILL BE MVFR CEILINGS...WITH
MANY AREAS BECOMING IFR CEILINGS BETWEEN 02Z AND 06Z. BEST
CONFIDENCE FOR IFR IS FROM ABOUT A JAFFREY-WORCESTER-WILLIMANTIC
LINE EASTWARD. STEADY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE
FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS EVENING. THE RAIN WILL LIKELY
REACH INTO RHODE ISLAND/INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MA FOR A SHORT TIME AND
PERHAPS EVEN INTO NORTHEAST MA.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.
JUST A LOW RISK FOR BRIEF MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE INTERIOR ON MONDAY
AS A DECK OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS MOVES INTO THE REGION.
OTHERWISE...GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS
EXPECTED DURING THE DAY MONDAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE TONIGHT WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON
MONDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE TONIGHT WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON
MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TUE...VFR.
WED...VFR
THU...VFR.
FRI...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LOW PRESSURE PASSING NEAR
THE BENCHMARK WILL RESULT IN ENOUGH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SWELL FOR
SCA SEAS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS AND WESTERN SOUNDS.
SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD BECOME SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS
LATER TONIGHT. AREAS OF FOG...SOME LOCALLY DENSE...WILL OCCUR
ACROSS THE WATERS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF BOSTON HARBOR.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  SCA SEAS
ON THE WESTERN SOUNDS AND OUTER-WATERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...A PERIOD OF WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS IS POSSIBLE FOR A TIME ON MONDAY.
THEREFORE...IT IS POSSIBLE WE MAY NEED TO EXPAND SCA FOR A TIME
DURING THE DAY MONDAY INTO SOME OF THE NEARSHORE SOUNDS AND
WATERS. CONFIDENCE NOT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH TO DO THIS RIGHT NOW...
SO WILL DEFER TO THE NEXT SHIFT.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

TUE AND WED...SEAS NEAR 5 FT MAY LINGER AT TIMES TUE AND WED OVER
THE WATERS S AND E OF NANTUCKET. OTHERWISE WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD
BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. A NORTHEAST WIND GRADIENT
WILL INCREASE OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS TUE NIGHT INTO WED
AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BUT
GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY REACH 20 KT.

WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI...QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING THE WEATHER. WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 5 PM EDT MONDAY FOR MAZ020>024.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MAZ006-007-014.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 5 PM EDT MONDAY FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 4 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/GAF
NEAR TERM...FRANK/DOODY/GAF
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...GAF
AVIATION...FRANK/GAF
MARINE...FRANK/GAF



000
FXUS61 KBOX 220200
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1000 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN WILL AFFECT THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND
COAST THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...DRIER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER IS
ON TAP FOR MONDAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNNY DAYS AND CLEAR NIGHTS TO THE
REGION FROM TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH A WARMING TREND. WE
COULD APPROACH RECORD WARMTH ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...

A BAND OF STEADY RAIN HAS GENERALLY DIMINISHED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
E MA THIS EVENING AS LOW PRES DEVELOPING OFFSHORE BEGINS TO SHIFT
NE. A FEW MORE SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN FROM THIS BUT JUST
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. OTHERWISE...HAVE BEEN WATCHING A
DOWNWARD TREND IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN NY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
COLD FRONT...STILL A BIT OF -SHRA ACTIVITY LEFT...BUT NOT MUCH
CONVECTION. LOOKS LIKE MAINLY WRN MA AND SW NH WILL BE HAVE THIS
RAIN IN THE CARDS BUT GENERALLY AFTER 03Z. AFTER THAT...THE RAPID
ENTRAINMENT OF DRY AIR...LONG SINCE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING AND
SHIFT OF BEST DYNAMICS INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD ALLOW FOR MOST
OF THESE TO DISSIPATE SUCH THAT VERY LITTLE ACTIVITY...ASIDE FROM
A BRIEF GUST OF WIND AND WIND SHIFT...IS SEEN ELSEWHERE WITH THIS
FROPA.

OTHERWISE...A POCKET OF VERY DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED FROM THE N
SHORE OF MA INTO COASTAL MAINE. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE
MORNING HOURS. HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA.
OTHERWISE...ONLY OTHER LOCATIONS REPORTING UNDER HALF A MILE ARE
ORH AND TAN...BUT FEEL THESE ARE LIKELY MORE COLOCATED WITH THE
AIRPORT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITH DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS ALLOWED
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUED TO AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  WE SHOULD SEE THIS ACTIVITY DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST WHICH WILL BE TRACKING NORTHEAST AND PASSING NEAR THE
BENCHMARK THIS EVENING. THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW FAR NORTHWEST
THE RAIN SHIELD WILL GET. LATEST NEAR TERM GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
TRENDING FURTHER NORTHWEST. THEREFORE...EXPECT A PERIOD OF STEADY
RAIN ACROSS THE CAPE/ISLANDS AND PROBABLY FURTHER NORTHWEST INTO
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MA/RHODE ISLAND FOR AT LEAST A TIME. IN
FACT...LATEST HRRR SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MA COAST INCLUDING BOSTON. NOT SURE IF
IT WILL GET THAT FAR NORTHWEST...BUT ITS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.
REGARDLESS...THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS NANTUCKET...
WHERE BETWEEN 0.50 TO PERHAPS UP TO 1 INCH OF RAIN MAY OCCUR.
THE RAIN MAY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING ACROSS THE CAPE
AND ISLANDS...BUT SHOULD WIND DOWN NEAR OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT.

MEANWHILE...ONCE THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SCATTERED SHOWERS WIND DOWN EARLY THIS EVENING...THE REST OF THE
REGION WILL MAINLY BE DRY TONIGHT.  HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING OUR WESTERN ZONES TOWARD MIDNIGHT.  WHILE SHEAR IS QUITE
IMPRESSIVE...VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY WILL BE LEFT.  SO WHILE WE MAY
SEE A FEW SPOT SHOWERS AFFECT OUR WESTERN ZONES...THEY WILL BE IN
THE PROCESS OF WEAKENING AND NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN THAT. LOW
TEMPS WILL ONLY BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 50S AND THE LOWER 60S BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY...

A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL WORK INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. WHILE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED EARLY...MAY SEE A SCATTERED TO BROKEN DECK OF STRATO-
CUMULUS CLOUDS WORK INTO AT LEAST THE INTERIOR BY AFTERNOON. HIGHS
SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE INTERIOR...BUT STILL WILL
REACH BETWEEN 70 AND 75 ALONG HE COASTAL PLAIN. GUSTY WEST WINDS
OF 20 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED AS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWING VERY GOOD
MIXING.

HIGH SURF...GIVEN LARGE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SWELL FROM DEPARTING
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAVE ISSUED A HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR THE
SOUTH COAST ON MONDAY.  WE ISSUE HIGH SURF PRODUCTS THROUGH THE END
OF SEPTEMBER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

MONDAY NIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.  THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR DIMINISHING WINDS AND SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR.  LOOKS LIKE
A PRETTY GOOD NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING...WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT
IN THE UPPER 30S TO THE MIDDLE 40S IN MOST LOCALES.  THE URBAN HEAT
ISLAND OF BOSTON WILL BE THE MILD SPOT WITH THE LOW BOTTOMING OUT
NEAR 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD
* NEAR RECORD WARMTH POSSIBLE NEXT SATURDAY

OVERVIEW...
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST MODEL GUIDANCE THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEPARTS THE NORTHEAST STATES ON
TUESDAY. THEN...MUCH ADO ABOUT BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE...BOTH AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE
IS VERY STRONG AS IT IS PARKED FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND BY NEXT WEEKEND.

DETAILS... TUESDAY WILL FEATURE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXCEPT ONLY
PARTLY SUNNY NW MA AND SW NH CLOSER TO SOME HIGHER 925 MB
HUMIDITY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SUNNY DAYS AND CLEAR NIGHTS THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND. HAVE GONE A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN MODEL CONSENSUS
TEMPERATURE MINIMUMS THROUGH THU DUE TO EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING EXPECTED ALONG WITH VERY DRY DEWPOINTS. AS THE CENTER OF
THE UPPER HIGH APPROACHES...AM EXPECTING A DRAMATIC WARMUP FRI
AND ESPECIALLY SAT. THE 12Z ECMWF RUN IS EVEN WARMER THAN THE
PREVIOUS RUN WITH 925 MB TEMPERATURES WARMING FROM +12C TUE...TO
+17C FRI... TO +19C OR +20C ON SAT... WITH WARM TEMPERATURES
LIKELY CONTINUING INTO EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK. HAVE GONE SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE MODEL CONSENSUS MAXIMUMS FOR NEXT SATURDAY...WITH
HIGHS SOARING TO 80 TO 85 ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
RECORDS FOR THAT DAY INCLUDE 85 AT WORCESTER AND 86 AT BOTH BOSTON
AND PROVIDENCE.

LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE PERIOD...SO ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE
DRY WE ARE NOT EXPECTING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. LOCAL SEA BREEZES
WILL OCCUR...ESPECIALLY FRI THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT THE GFS HAS A HINT OF A POTENTIAL BACKDOOR FRONT/TROUGH
OVER NORTHEAST MA ON SAT BUT THIS WAS NOT ENOUGH TO DETRACT FROM
THE VERY WARM FORECAST...AS YET.

AN UPPER LOW OVER VIRGINIA AND AN ASSOCIATED INVERTED TROUGH IS
LIKELY TO BE CAUSING PRECIPITATION IN THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
MID TO LATE IN THE WORK WEEK THAT TRIES TO WORK ITS WAY NORTHWARD.
THERE IS EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THIS AREA ONLY GETS AS
FAR NORTHWARD AS OFF THE NJ COAST BY FRI...BEFORE RETREATING
SOUTHWARD AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE
NORTHEAST ON THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME
LOW IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST MA INCLUDING THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS WITH VISIBILITIES BELOW 1/2 MILE AT TIMES IN LOCALLY DENSE
FOG. MOST OF THE REST OF THE REGION WILL BE MVFR CEILINGS...WITH
MANY AREAS BECOMING IFR CEILINGS BETWEEN 02Z AND 06Z. BEST
CONFIDENCE FOR IFR IS FROM ABOUT A JAFFREY-WORCESTER-WILLIMANTIC
LINE EASTWARD. STEADY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE
FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS EVENING. THE RAIN WILL LIKELY
REACH INTO RHODE ISLAND/INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MA FOR A SHORT TIME AND
PERHAPS EVEN INTO NORTHEAST MA.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.
JUST A LOW RISK FOR BRIEF MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE INTERIOR ON MONDAY
AS A DECK OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS MOVES INTO THE REGION.
OTHERWISE...GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS
EXPECTED DURING THE DAY MONDAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE TONIGHT WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON
MONDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE TONIGHT WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON
MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TUE...VFR.
WED...VFR
THU...VFR.
FRI...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LOW PRESSURE PASSING NEAR
THE BENCHMARK WILL RESULT IN ENOUGH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SWELL FOR
SCA SEAS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS AND WESTERN SOUNDS.
SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD BECOME SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS
LATER TONIGHT. AREAS OF FOG...SOME LOCALLY DENSE...WILL OCCUR
ACROSS THE WATERS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF BOSTON HARBOR.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  SCA SEAS
ON THE WESTERN SOUNDS AND OUTER-WATERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...A PERIOD OF WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS IS POSSIBLE FOR A TIME ON MONDAY.
THEREFORE...IT IS POSSIBLE WE MAY NEED TO EXPAND SCA FOR A TIME
DURING THE DAY MONDAY INTO SOME OF THE NEARSHORE SOUNDS AND
WATERS. CONFIDENCE NOT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH TO DO THIS RIGHT NOW...
SO WILL DEFER TO THE NEXT SHIFT.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

TUE AND WED...SEAS NEAR 5 FT MAY LINGER AT TIMES TUE AND WED OVER
THE WATERS S AND E OF NANTUCKET. OTHERWISE WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD
BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. A NORTHEAST WIND GRADIENT
WILL INCREASE OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS TUE NIGHT INTO WED
AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BUT
GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY REACH 20 KT.

WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI...QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING THE WEATHER. WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 5 PM EDT MONDAY FOR MAZ020>024.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MAZ006-007-014.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 5 PM EDT MONDAY FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 4 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/GAF
NEAR TERM...FRANK/DOODY/GAF
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...GAF
AVIATION...FRANK/GAF
MARINE...FRANK/GAF



000
FXUS61 KBOX 220200
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1000 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN WILL AFFECT THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND
COAST THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...DRIER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER IS
ON TAP FOR MONDAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNNY DAYS AND CLEAR NIGHTS TO THE
REGION FROM TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH A WARMING TREND. WE
COULD APPROACH RECORD WARMTH ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...

A BAND OF STEADY RAIN HAS GENERALLY DIMINISHED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
E MA THIS EVENING AS LOW PRES DEVELOPING OFFSHORE BEGINS TO SHIFT
NE. A FEW MORE SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN FROM THIS BUT JUST
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. OTHERWISE...HAVE BEEN WATCHING A
DOWNWARD TREND IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN NY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
COLD FRONT...STILL A BIT OF -SHRA ACTIVITY LEFT...BUT NOT MUCH
CONVECTION. LOOKS LIKE MAINLY WRN MA AND SW NH WILL BE HAVE THIS
RAIN IN THE CARDS BUT GENERALLY AFTER 03Z. AFTER THAT...THE RAPID
ENTRAINMENT OF DRY AIR...LONG SINCE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING AND
SHIFT OF BEST DYNAMICS INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD ALLOW FOR MOST
OF THESE TO DISSIPATE SUCH THAT VERY LITTLE ACTIVITY...ASIDE FROM
A BRIEF GUST OF WIND AND WIND SHIFT...IS SEEN ELSEWHERE WITH THIS
FROPA.

OTHERWISE...A POCKET OF VERY DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED FROM THE N
SHORE OF MA INTO COASTAL MAINE. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE
MORNING HOURS. HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA.
OTHERWISE...ONLY OTHER LOCATIONS REPORTING UNDER HALF A MILE ARE
ORH AND TAN...BUT FEEL THESE ARE LIKELY MORE COLOCATED WITH THE
AIRPORT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITH DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS ALLOWED
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUED TO AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  WE SHOULD SEE THIS ACTIVITY DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST WHICH WILL BE TRACKING NORTHEAST AND PASSING NEAR THE
BENCHMARK THIS EVENING. THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW FAR NORTHWEST
THE RAIN SHIELD WILL GET. LATEST NEAR TERM GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
TRENDING FURTHER NORTHWEST. THEREFORE...EXPECT A PERIOD OF STEADY
RAIN ACROSS THE CAPE/ISLANDS AND PROBABLY FURTHER NORTHWEST INTO
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MA/RHODE ISLAND FOR AT LEAST A TIME. IN
FACT...LATEST HRRR SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MA COAST INCLUDING BOSTON. NOT SURE IF
IT WILL GET THAT FAR NORTHWEST...BUT ITS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.
REGARDLESS...THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS NANTUCKET...
WHERE BETWEEN 0.50 TO PERHAPS UP TO 1 INCH OF RAIN MAY OCCUR.
THE RAIN MAY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING ACROSS THE CAPE
AND ISLANDS...BUT SHOULD WIND DOWN NEAR OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT.

MEANWHILE...ONCE THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SCATTERED SHOWERS WIND DOWN EARLY THIS EVENING...THE REST OF THE
REGION WILL MAINLY BE DRY TONIGHT.  HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING OUR WESTERN ZONES TOWARD MIDNIGHT.  WHILE SHEAR IS QUITE
IMPRESSIVE...VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY WILL BE LEFT.  SO WHILE WE MAY
SEE A FEW SPOT SHOWERS AFFECT OUR WESTERN ZONES...THEY WILL BE IN
THE PROCESS OF WEAKENING AND NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN THAT. LOW
TEMPS WILL ONLY BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 50S AND THE LOWER 60S BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY...

A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL WORK INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. WHILE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED EARLY...MAY SEE A SCATTERED TO BROKEN DECK OF STRATO-
CUMULUS CLOUDS WORK INTO AT LEAST THE INTERIOR BY AFTERNOON. HIGHS
SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE INTERIOR...BUT STILL WILL
REACH BETWEEN 70 AND 75 ALONG HE COASTAL PLAIN. GUSTY WEST WINDS
OF 20 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED AS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWING VERY GOOD
MIXING.

HIGH SURF...GIVEN LARGE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SWELL FROM DEPARTING
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAVE ISSUED A HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR THE
SOUTH COAST ON MONDAY.  WE ISSUE HIGH SURF PRODUCTS THROUGH THE END
OF SEPTEMBER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

MONDAY NIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.  THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR DIMINISHING WINDS AND SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR.  LOOKS LIKE
A PRETTY GOOD NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING...WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT
IN THE UPPER 30S TO THE MIDDLE 40S IN MOST LOCALES.  THE URBAN HEAT
ISLAND OF BOSTON WILL BE THE MILD SPOT WITH THE LOW BOTTOMING OUT
NEAR 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD
* NEAR RECORD WARMTH POSSIBLE NEXT SATURDAY

OVERVIEW...
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST MODEL GUIDANCE THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEPARTS THE NORTHEAST STATES ON
TUESDAY. THEN...MUCH ADO ABOUT BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE...BOTH AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE
IS VERY STRONG AS IT IS PARKED FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND BY NEXT WEEKEND.

DETAILS... TUESDAY WILL FEATURE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXCEPT ONLY
PARTLY SUNNY NW MA AND SW NH CLOSER TO SOME HIGHER 925 MB
HUMIDITY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SUNNY DAYS AND CLEAR NIGHTS THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND. HAVE GONE A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN MODEL CONSENSUS
TEMPERATURE MINIMUMS THROUGH THU DUE TO EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING EXPECTED ALONG WITH VERY DRY DEWPOINTS. AS THE CENTER OF
THE UPPER HIGH APPROACHES...AM EXPECTING A DRAMATIC WARMUP FRI
AND ESPECIALLY SAT. THE 12Z ECMWF RUN IS EVEN WARMER THAN THE
PREVIOUS RUN WITH 925 MB TEMPERATURES WARMING FROM +12C TUE...TO
+17C FRI... TO +19C OR +20C ON SAT... WITH WARM TEMPERATURES
LIKELY CONTINUING INTO EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK. HAVE GONE SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE MODEL CONSENSUS MAXIMUMS FOR NEXT SATURDAY...WITH
HIGHS SOARING TO 80 TO 85 ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
RECORDS FOR THAT DAY INCLUDE 85 AT WORCESTER AND 86 AT BOTH BOSTON
AND PROVIDENCE.

LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE PERIOD...SO ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE
DRY WE ARE NOT EXPECTING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. LOCAL SEA BREEZES
WILL OCCUR...ESPECIALLY FRI THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT THE GFS HAS A HINT OF A POTENTIAL BACKDOOR FRONT/TROUGH
OVER NORTHEAST MA ON SAT BUT THIS WAS NOT ENOUGH TO DETRACT FROM
THE VERY WARM FORECAST...AS YET.

AN UPPER LOW OVER VIRGINIA AND AN ASSOCIATED INVERTED TROUGH IS
LIKELY TO BE CAUSING PRECIPITATION IN THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
MID TO LATE IN THE WORK WEEK THAT TRIES TO WORK ITS WAY NORTHWARD.
THERE IS EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THIS AREA ONLY GETS AS
FAR NORTHWARD AS OFF THE NJ COAST BY FRI...BEFORE RETREATING
SOUTHWARD AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE
NORTHEAST ON THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME
LOW IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST MA INCLUDING THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS WITH VISIBILITIES BELOW 1/2 MILE AT TIMES IN LOCALLY DENSE
FOG. MOST OF THE REST OF THE REGION WILL BE MVFR CEILINGS...WITH
MANY AREAS BECOMING IFR CEILINGS BETWEEN 02Z AND 06Z. BEST
CONFIDENCE FOR IFR IS FROM ABOUT A JAFFREY-WORCESTER-WILLIMANTIC
LINE EASTWARD. STEADY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE
FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS EVENING. THE RAIN WILL LIKELY
REACH INTO RHODE ISLAND/INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MA FOR A SHORT TIME AND
PERHAPS EVEN INTO NORTHEAST MA.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.
JUST A LOW RISK FOR BRIEF MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE INTERIOR ON MONDAY
AS A DECK OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS MOVES INTO THE REGION.
OTHERWISE...GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS
EXPECTED DURING THE DAY MONDAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE TONIGHT WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON
MONDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE TONIGHT WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON
MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TUE...VFR.
WED...VFR
THU...VFR.
FRI...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LOW PRESSURE PASSING NEAR
THE BENCHMARK WILL RESULT IN ENOUGH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SWELL FOR
SCA SEAS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS AND WESTERN SOUNDS.
SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD BECOME SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS
LATER TONIGHT. AREAS OF FOG...SOME LOCALLY DENSE...WILL OCCUR
ACROSS THE WATERS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF BOSTON HARBOR.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  SCA SEAS
ON THE WESTERN SOUNDS AND OUTER-WATERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...A PERIOD OF WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS IS POSSIBLE FOR A TIME ON MONDAY.
THEREFORE...IT IS POSSIBLE WE MAY NEED TO EXPAND SCA FOR A TIME
DURING THE DAY MONDAY INTO SOME OF THE NEARSHORE SOUNDS AND
WATERS. CONFIDENCE NOT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH TO DO THIS RIGHT NOW...
SO WILL DEFER TO THE NEXT SHIFT.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

TUE AND WED...SEAS NEAR 5 FT MAY LINGER AT TIMES TUE AND WED OVER
THE WATERS S AND E OF NANTUCKET. OTHERWISE WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD
BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. A NORTHEAST WIND GRADIENT
WILL INCREASE OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS TUE NIGHT INTO WED
AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BUT
GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY REACH 20 KT.

WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI...QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING THE WEATHER. WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 5 PM EDT MONDAY FOR MAZ020>024.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MAZ006-007-014.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 5 PM EDT MONDAY FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 4 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/GAF
NEAR TERM...FRANK/DOODY/GAF
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...GAF
AVIATION...FRANK/GAF
MARINE...FRANK/GAF



000
FXUS61 KBOX 220200
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1000 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN WILL AFFECT THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND
COAST THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...DRIER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER IS
ON TAP FOR MONDAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNNY DAYS AND CLEAR NIGHTS TO THE
REGION FROM TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH A WARMING TREND. WE
COULD APPROACH RECORD WARMTH ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...

A BAND OF STEADY RAIN HAS GENERALLY DIMINISHED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
E MA THIS EVENING AS LOW PRES DEVELOPING OFFSHORE BEGINS TO SHIFT
NE. A FEW MORE SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN FROM THIS BUT JUST
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. OTHERWISE...HAVE BEEN WATCHING A
DOWNWARD TREND IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN NY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
COLD FRONT...STILL A BIT OF -SHRA ACTIVITY LEFT...BUT NOT MUCH
CONVECTION. LOOKS LIKE MAINLY WRN MA AND SW NH WILL BE HAVE THIS
RAIN IN THE CARDS BUT GENERALLY AFTER 03Z. AFTER THAT...THE RAPID
ENTRAINMENT OF DRY AIR...LONG SINCE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING AND
SHIFT OF BEST DYNAMICS INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD ALLOW FOR MOST
OF THESE TO DISSIPATE SUCH THAT VERY LITTLE ACTIVITY...ASIDE FROM
A BRIEF GUST OF WIND AND WIND SHIFT...IS SEEN ELSEWHERE WITH THIS
FROPA.

OTHERWISE...A POCKET OF VERY DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED FROM THE N
SHORE OF MA INTO COASTAL MAINE. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE
MORNING HOURS. HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA.
OTHERWISE...ONLY OTHER LOCATIONS REPORTING UNDER HALF A MILE ARE
ORH AND TAN...BUT FEEL THESE ARE LIKELY MORE COLOCATED WITH THE
AIRPORT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITH DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS ALLOWED
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUED TO AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  WE SHOULD SEE THIS ACTIVITY DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST WHICH WILL BE TRACKING NORTHEAST AND PASSING NEAR THE
BENCHMARK THIS EVENING. THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW FAR NORTHWEST
THE RAIN SHIELD WILL GET. LATEST NEAR TERM GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
TRENDING FURTHER NORTHWEST. THEREFORE...EXPECT A PERIOD OF STEADY
RAIN ACROSS THE CAPE/ISLANDS AND PROBABLY FURTHER NORTHWEST INTO
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MA/RHODE ISLAND FOR AT LEAST A TIME. IN
FACT...LATEST HRRR SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MA COAST INCLUDING BOSTON. NOT SURE IF
IT WILL GET THAT FAR NORTHWEST...BUT ITS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.
REGARDLESS...THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS NANTUCKET...
WHERE BETWEEN 0.50 TO PERHAPS UP TO 1 INCH OF RAIN MAY OCCUR.
THE RAIN MAY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING ACROSS THE CAPE
AND ISLANDS...BUT SHOULD WIND DOWN NEAR OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT.

MEANWHILE...ONCE THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SCATTERED SHOWERS WIND DOWN EARLY THIS EVENING...THE REST OF THE
REGION WILL MAINLY BE DRY TONIGHT.  HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING OUR WESTERN ZONES TOWARD MIDNIGHT.  WHILE SHEAR IS QUITE
IMPRESSIVE...VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY WILL BE LEFT.  SO WHILE WE MAY
SEE A FEW SPOT SHOWERS AFFECT OUR WESTERN ZONES...THEY WILL BE IN
THE PROCESS OF WEAKENING AND NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN THAT. LOW
TEMPS WILL ONLY BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 50S AND THE LOWER 60S BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY...

A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL WORK INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. WHILE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED EARLY...MAY SEE A SCATTERED TO BROKEN DECK OF STRATO-
CUMULUS CLOUDS WORK INTO AT LEAST THE INTERIOR BY AFTERNOON. HIGHS
SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE INTERIOR...BUT STILL WILL
REACH BETWEEN 70 AND 75 ALONG HE COASTAL PLAIN. GUSTY WEST WINDS
OF 20 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED AS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWING VERY GOOD
MIXING.

HIGH SURF...GIVEN LARGE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SWELL FROM DEPARTING
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAVE ISSUED A HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR THE
SOUTH COAST ON MONDAY.  WE ISSUE HIGH SURF PRODUCTS THROUGH THE END
OF SEPTEMBER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

MONDAY NIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.  THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR DIMINISHING WINDS AND SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR.  LOOKS LIKE
A PRETTY GOOD NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING...WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT
IN THE UPPER 30S TO THE MIDDLE 40S IN MOST LOCALES.  THE URBAN HEAT
ISLAND OF BOSTON WILL BE THE MILD SPOT WITH THE LOW BOTTOMING OUT
NEAR 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD
* NEAR RECORD WARMTH POSSIBLE NEXT SATURDAY

OVERVIEW...
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST MODEL GUIDANCE THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEPARTS THE NORTHEAST STATES ON
TUESDAY. THEN...MUCH ADO ABOUT BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE...BOTH AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE
IS VERY STRONG AS IT IS PARKED FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND BY NEXT WEEKEND.

DETAILS... TUESDAY WILL FEATURE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXCEPT ONLY
PARTLY SUNNY NW MA AND SW NH CLOSER TO SOME HIGHER 925 MB
HUMIDITY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SUNNY DAYS AND CLEAR NIGHTS THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND. HAVE GONE A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN MODEL CONSENSUS
TEMPERATURE MINIMUMS THROUGH THU DUE TO EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING EXPECTED ALONG WITH VERY DRY DEWPOINTS. AS THE CENTER OF
THE UPPER HIGH APPROACHES...AM EXPECTING A DRAMATIC WARMUP FRI
AND ESPECIALLY SAT. THE 12Z ECMWF RUN IS EVEN WARMER THAN THE
PREVIOUS RUN WITH 925 MB TEMPERATURES WARMING FROM +12C TUE...TO
+17C FRI... TO +19C OR +20C ON SAT... WITH WARM TEMPERATURES
LIKELY CONTINUING INTO EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK. HAVE GONE SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE MODEL CONSENSUS MAXIMUMS FOR NEXT SATURDAY...WITH
HIGHS SOARING TO 80 TO 85 ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
RECORDS FOR THAT DAY INCLUDE 85 AT WORCESTER AND 86 AT BOTH BOSTON
AND PROVIDENCE.

LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE PERIOD...SO ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE
DRY WE ARE NOT EXPECTING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. LOCAL SEA BREEZES
WILL OCCUR...ESPECIALLY FRI THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT THE GFS HAS A HINT OF A POTENTIAL BACKDOOR FRONT/TROUGH
OVER NORTHEAST MA ON SAT BUT THIS WAS NOT ENOUGH TO DETRACT FROM
THE VERY WARM FORECAST...AS YET.

AN UPPER LOW OVER VIRGINIA AND AN ASSOCIATED INVERTED TROUGH IS
LIKELY TO BE CAUSING PRECIPITATION IN THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
MID TO LATE IN THE WORK WEEK THAT TRIES TO WORK ITS WAY NORTHWARD.
THERE IS EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THIS AREA ONLY GETS AS
FAR NORTHWARD AS OFF THE NJ COAST BY FRI...BEFORE RETREATING
SOUTHWARD AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE
NORTHEAST ON THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME
LOW IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST MA INCLUDING THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS WITH VISIBILITIES BELOW 1/2 MILE AT TIMES IN LOCALLY DENSE
FOG. MOST OF THE REST OF THE REGION WILL BE MVFR CEILINGS...WITH
MANY AREAS BECOMING IFR CEILINGS BETWEEN 02Z AND 06Z. BEST
CONFIDENCE FOR IFR IS FROM ABOUT A JAFFREY-WORCESTER-WILLIMANTIC
LINE EASTWARD. STEADY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE
FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS EVENING. THE RAIN WILL LIKELY
REACH INTO RHODE ISLAND/INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MA FOR A SHORT TIME AND
PERHAPS EVEN INTO NORTHEAST MA.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.
JUST A LOW RISK FOR BRIEF MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE INTERIOR ON MONDAY
AS A DECK OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS MOVES INTO THE REGION.
OTHERWISE...GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS
EXPECTED DURING THE DAY MONDAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE TONIGHT WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON
MONDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE TONIGHT WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON
MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TUE...VFR.
WED...VFR
THU...VFR.
FRI...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LOW PRESSURE PASSING NEAR
THE BENCHMARK WILL RESULT IN ENOUGH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SWELL FOR
SCA SEAS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS AND WESTERN SOUNDS.
SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD BECOME SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS
LATER TONIGHT. AREAS OF FOG...SOME LOCALLY DENSE...WILL OCCUR
ACROSS THE WATERS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF BOSTON HARBOR.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  SCA SEAS
ON THE WESTERN SOUNDS AND OUTER-WATERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...A PERIOD OF WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS IS POSSIBLE FOR A TIME ON MONDAY.
THEREFORE...IT IS POSSIBLE WE MAY NEED TO EXPAND SCA FOR A TIME
DURING THE DAY MONDAY INTO SOME OF THE NEARSHORE SOUNDS AND
WATERS. CONFIDENCE NOT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH TO DO THIS RIGHT NOW...
SO WILL DEFER TO THE NEXT SHIFT.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

TUE AND WED...SEAS NEAR 5 FT MAY LINGER AT TIMES TUE AND WED OVER
THE WATERS S AND E OF NANTUCKET. OTHERWISE WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD
BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. A NORTHEAST WIND GRADIENT
WILL INCREASE OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS TUE NIGHT INTO WED
AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BUT
GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY REACH 20 KT.

WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI...QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING THE WEATHER. WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 5 PM EDT MONDAY FOR MAZ020>024.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MAZ006-007-014.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 5 PM EDT MONDAY FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 4 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/GAF
NEAR TERM...FRANK/DOODY/GAF
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...GAF
AVIATION...FRANK/GAF
MARINE...FRANK/GAF



000
FXUS61 KOKX 220144
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
944 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING...AND CROSSES
THE TRI-STATE TONIGHT...MEANWHILE A COASTAL LOW TRACKS TO THE
EAST...THEN NORTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH TUESDAY. THE HIGH THEN DOMINATES
THE WEATHER THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY ABOUT 100 MILES SE OF MONTAUK
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST. PRECIPITATION WITH
THIS LOW HAS ENDED. MEANWHILE...THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO TRACK
EAST TOWARDS THE REGION WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT. THE
SHOWERS HAVE WEAKENED A LITTLE SLOWER THAN ANTICIPATED SO HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST TRENDS. THE LINE WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THE NEXT FEW HUORS WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND THE
BEST DYNAMICS MOVING NW OF THE CWA.

HAVE ALSO SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED LOWS TONIGHT FOLLOWING LATEST TRENDS
IN LAV GUIDANCE. VALUES STILL FORECAST TO BE 4 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL OUTSIDE OF THE NYC HEAT ISLAND...AND NEAR NORMAL INSIDE THE
HEAT ISLAND AND AREAS TO THE N/W OF NYC DUE TO THE TIMING OF THE
COLD FRONT.

ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG THIS EVENING OVER SE CT/THE
TWIN FORKS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WHILE LOCALLY DENSE FOG CANNOT
BE RULED OUT - AM CURRENTLY NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN ITS POTENTIAL
TO ISSUE ANY STATEMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
REGION REMAINS UNDER THE BASE OF 700-500 HPA TROUGH MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE A FEW SHORTWAVES ROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH - BUT GIVEN FORECAST DRYING IN THE LOW LEVELS WOULD ONLY
EXPECT AT MOST SOME CLOUDS AS THEY PASS. SO GOING WITH A MOSTLY
SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY MONDAY AND A MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR SKY
MONDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT.

FOR HIGHS MONDAY USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 875 HPA...EXCEPT
850 HPA OVER THE NW 1/4 OF THE CWA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE. EXPECT
READINGS TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR LOWS MONDAY NIGHT - WITH
READINGS FORECAST TO BE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF ORANGE COUNTY.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC BEACHES
MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE EAST COAST TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH SUNDAY.

AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WHILE
ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM CENTRAL CANADA. THE COMBINED
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND
THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH THEN
BUILDS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY AND REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY INTO
SUNDAY. INITIALLY THE AIR MASS WILL BE COOL TUESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A
WARMING TREND SETS UP FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE AIR
MASS MODIFIES. NEXT WEEKEND TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE REBOUNDED TO
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A CDFNT ACROSS UPSTATE NY WILL PASS THRU THE REGION OVERNIGHT.

LGT AND VRB WINDS BECOMING SW AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER THIS EVE.
WINDS SWITCH TO THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT. STRONG NW FLOW MON WITH
ISOLD GUSTS TO 30KT.

MAINLY VFR AHEAD OF THE FRONT...HOWEVER OCNL MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE IN
THE CITY AND IFR ERN TERMINALS. A FEW -SHRA POSSIBLE INVOF THE
FRONT...THEN VFR THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUE THROUGH THU...
.MON NIGHT...VFR. NW WINDS DIMINISHING.
.TUE...VFR WITH LGT WINDS.
.WED...MVFR CIGS AROUND 3000FT POSSIBLE. ENE WINDS 5-15KT.
.THU...VFR WITH LGT NE FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS BUILD TO UP TO 5 FT ON THE WESTERN COASTAL OCEAN WATERS AND
UP TO 8 FT ON THE EASTERN COASTAL OCEAN WATERS BY LATE TONIGHT.
WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS ON MONDAY
- HAVE CONVERTED SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS TO A PLAIN SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY. SCA WIND GUSTS SHOULD LINGER OVER THE EASTERN TWO
COASTAL WATER ZONES INTO MONDAY EVENING AND SCA LEVEL SEAS THROUGH
THE NIGHT IN THOSE TWO ZONES...SO HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA FOR
ANZ-350 AND 353 THROUGH 10Z TUESDAY AS A RESULT.

ON THE REMAINDER OF THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE
CURRENTLY EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT ARE
FORECAST ON MONDAY - HOWEVER OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25KT CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ACROSS THE EXTREME OUTER
OCEAN WATERS EAST OF MORICHES INLET VERY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS
SEAS WILL BE SUBSIDING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WATERS TUESDAY INTO SATURDAY WIND AND
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LITTLE IF ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
THE PASSING OF A COASTAL LOW TO THE EAST AND THE PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT.

DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/MET
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/DS/MET
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...JMC/GOODMAN
MARINE...MALOIT/MET
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT







000
FXUS61 KOKX 220144
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
944 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING...AND CROSSES
THE TRI-STATE TONIGHT...MEANWHILE A COASTAL LOW TRACKS TO THE
EAST...THEN NORTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH TUESDAY. THE HIGH THEN DOMINATES
THE WEATHER THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY ABOUT 100 MILES SE OF MONTAUK
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST. PRECIPITATION WITH
THIS LOW HAS ENDED. MEANWHILE...THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO TRACK
EAST TOWARDS THE REGION WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT. THE
SHOWERS HAVE WEAKENED A LITTLE SLOWER THAN ANTICIPATED SO HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST TRENDS. THE LINE WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THE NEXT FEW HUORS WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND THE
BEST DYNAMICS MOVING NW OF THE CWA.

HAVE ALSO SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED LOWS TONIGHT FOLLOWING LATEST TRENDS
IN LAV GUIDANCE. VALUES STILL FORECAST TO BE 4 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL OUTSIDE OF THE NYC HEAT ISLAND...AND NEAR NORMAL INSIDE THE
HEAT ISLAND AND AREAS TO THE N/W OF NYC DUE TO THE TIMING OF THE
COLD FRONT.

ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG THIS EVENING OVER SE CT/THE
TWIN FORKS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WHILE LOCALLY DENSE FOG CANNOT
BE RULED OUT - AM CURRENTLY NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN ITS POTENTIAL
TO ISSUE ANY STATEMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
REGION REMAINS UNDER THE BASE OF 700-500 HPA TROUGH MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE A FEW SHORTWAVES ROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH - BUT GIVEN FORECAST DRYING IN THE LOW LEVELS WOULD ONLY
EXPECT AT MOST SOME CLOUDS AS THEY PASS. SO GOING WITH A MOSTLY
SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY MONDAY AND A MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR SKY
MONDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT.

FOR HIGHS MONDAY USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 875 HPA...EXCEPT
850 HPA OVER THE NW 1/4 OF THE CWA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE. EXPECT
READINGS TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR LOWS MONDAY NIGHT - WITH
READINGS FORECAST TO BE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF ORANGE COUNTY.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC BEACHES
MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE EAST COAST TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH SUNDAY.

AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WHILE
ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM CENTRAL CANADA. THE COMBINED
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND
THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH THEN
BUILDS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY AND REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY INTO
SUNDAY. INITIALLY THE AIR MASS WILL BE COOL TUESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A
WARMING TREND SETS UP FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE AIR
MASS MODIFIES. NEXT WEEKEND TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE REBOUNDED TO
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A CDFNT ACROSS UPSTATE NY WILL PASS THRU THE REGION OVERNIGHT.

LGT AND VRB WINDS BECOMING SW AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER THIS EVE.
WINDS SWITCH TO THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT. STRONG NW FLOW MON WITH
ISOLD GUSTS TO 30KT.

MAINLY VFR AHEAD OF THE FRONT...HOWEVER OCNL MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE IN
THE CITY AND IFR ERN TERMINALS. A FEW -SHRA POSSIBLE INVOF THE
FRONT...THEN VFR THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUE THROUGH THU...
.MON NIGHT...VFR. NW WINDS DIMINISHING.
.TUE...VFR WITH LGT WINDS.
.WED...MVFR CIGS AROUND 3000FT POSSIBLE. ENE WINDS 5-15KT.
.THU...VFR WITH LGT NE FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS BUILD TO UP TO 5 FT ON THE WESTERN COASTAL OCEAN WATERS AND
UP TO 8 FT ON THE EASTERN COASTAL OCEAN WATERS BY LATE TONIGHT.
WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS ON MONDAY
- HAVE CONVERTED SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS TO A PLAIN SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY. SCA WIND GUSTS SHOULD LINGER OVER THE EASTERN TWO
COASTAL WATER ZONES INTO MONDAY EVENING AND SCA LEVEL SEAS THROUGH
THE NIGHT IN THOSE TWO ZONES...SO HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA FOR
ANZ-350 AND 353 THROUGH 10Z TUESDAY AS A RESULT.

ON THE REMAINDER OF THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE
CURRENTLY EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT ARE
FORECAST ON MONDAY - HOWEVER OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25KT CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ACROSS THE EXTREME OUTER
OCEAN WATERS EAST OF MORICHES INLET VERY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS
SEAS WILL BE SUBSIDING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WATERS TUESDAY INTO SATURDAY WIND AND
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LITTLE IF ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
THE PASSING OF A COASTAL LOW TO THE EAST AND THE PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT.

DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/MET
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/DS/MET
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...JMC/GOODMAN
MARINE...MALOIT/MET
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT







000
FXUS61 KOKX 220144
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
944 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING...AND CROSSES
THE TRI-STATE TONIGHT...MEANWHILE A COASTAL LOW TRACKS TO THE
EAST...THEN NORTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH TUESDAY. THE HIGH THEN DOMINATES
THE WEATHER THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY ABOUT 100 MILES SE OF MONTAUK
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST. PRECIPITATION WITH
THIS LOW HAS ENDED. MEANWHILE...THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO TRACK
EAST TOWARDS THE REGION WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT. THE
SHOWERS HAVE WEAKENED A LITTLE SLOWER THAN ANTICIPATED SO HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST TRENDS. THE LINE WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THE NEXT FEW HUORS WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND THE
BEST DYNAMICS MOVING NW OF THE CWA.

HAVE ALSO SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED LOWS TONIGHT FOLLOWING LATEST TRENDS
IN LAV GUIDANCE. VALUES STILL FORECAST TO BE 4 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL OUTSIDE OF THE NYC HEAT ISLAND...AND NEAR NORMAL INSIDE THE
HEAT ISLAND AND AREAS TO THE N/W OF NYC DUE TO THE TIMING OF THE
COLD FRONT.

ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG THIS EVENING OVER SE CT/THE
TWIN FORKS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WHILE LOCALLY DENSE FOG CANNOT
BE RULED OUT - AM CURRENTLY NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN ITS POTENTIAL
TO ISSUE ANY STATEMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
REGION REMAINS UNDER THE BASE OF 700-500 HPA TROUGH MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE A FEW SHORTWAVES ROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH - BUT GIVEN FORECAST DRYING IN THE LOW LEVELS WOULD ONLY
EXPECT AT MOST SOME CLOUDS AS THEY PASS. SO GOING WITH A MOSTLY
SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY MONDAY AND A MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR SKY
MONDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT.

FOR HIGHS MONDAY USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 875 HPA...EXCEPT
850 HPA OVER THE NW 1/4 OF THE CWA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE. EXPECT
READINGS TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR LOWS MONDAY NIGHT - WITH
READINGS FORECAST TO BE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF ORANGE COUNTY.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC BEACHES
MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE EAST COAST TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH SUNDAY.

AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WHILE
ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM CENTRAL CANADA. THE COMBINED
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND
THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH THEN
BUILDS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY AND REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY INTO
SUNDAY. INITIALLY THE AIR MASS WILL BE COOL TUESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A
WARMING TREND SETS UP FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE AIR
MASS MODIFIES. NEXT WEEKEND TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE REBOUNDED TO
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A CDFNT ACROSS UPSTATE NY WILL PASS THRU THE REGION OVERNIGHT.

LGT AND VRB WINDS BECOMING SW AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER THIS EVE.
WINDS SWITCH TO THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT. STRONG NW FLOW MON WITH
ISOLD GUSTS TO 30KT.

MAINLY VFR AHEAD OF THE FRONT...HOWEVER OCNL MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE IN
THE CITY AND IFR ERN TERMINALS. A FEW -SHRA POSSIBLE INVOF THE
FRONT...THEN VFR THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUE THROUGH THU...
.MON NIGHT...VFR. NW WINDS DIMINISHING.
.TUE...VFR WITH LGT WINDS.
.WED...MVFR CIGS AROUND 3000FT POSSIBLE. ENE WINDS 5-15KT.
.THU...VFR WITH LGT NE FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS BUILD TO UP TO 5 FT ON THE WESTERN COASTAL OCEAN WATERS AND
UP TO 8 FT ON THE EASTERN COASTAL OCEAN WATERS BY LATE TONIGHT.
WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS ON MONDAY
- HAVE CONVERTED SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS TO A PLAIN SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY. SCA WIND GUSTS SHOULD LINGER OVER THE EASTERN TWO
COASTAL WATER ZONES INTO MONDAY EVENING AND SCA LEVEL SEAS THROUGH
THE NIGHT IN THOSE TWO ZONES...SO HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA FOR
ANZ-350 AND 353 THROUGH 10Z TUESDAY AS A RESULT.

ON THE REMAINDER OF THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE
CURRENTLY EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT ARE
FORECAST ON MONDAY - HOWEVER OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25KT CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ACROSS THE EXTREME OUTER
OCEAN WATERS EAST OF MORICHES INLET VERY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS
SEAS WILL BE SUBSIDING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WATERS TUESDAY INTO SATURDAY WIND AND
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LITTLE IF ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
THE PASSING OF A COASTAL LOW TO THE EAST AND THE PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT.

DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/MET
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/DS/MET
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...JMC/GOODMAN
MARINE...MALOIT/MET
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT







000
FXUS61 KOKX 220144
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
944 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING...AND CROSSES
THE TRI-STATE TONIGHT...MEANWHILE A COASTAL LOW TRACKS TO THE
EAST...THEN NORTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH TUESDAY. THE HIGH THEN DOMINATES
THE WEATHER THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY ABOUT 100 MILES SE OF MONTAUK
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST. PRECIPITATION WITH
THIS LOW HAS ENDED. MEANWHILE...THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO TRACK
EAST TOWARDS THE REGION WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT. THE
SHOWERS HAVE WEAKENED A LITTLE SLOWER THAN ANTICIPATED SO HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST TRENDS. THE LINE WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THE NEXT FEW HUORS WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND THE
BEST DYNAMICS MOVING NW OF THE CWA.

HAVE ALSO SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED LOWS TONIGHT FOLLOWING LATEST TRENDS
IN LAV GUIDANCE. VALUES STILL FORECAST TO BE 4 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL OUTSIDE OF THE NYC HEAT ISLAND...AND NEAR NORMAL INSIDE THE
HEAT ISLAND AND AREAS TO THE N/W OF NYC DUE TO THE TIMING OF THE
COLD FRONT.

ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG THIS EVENING OVER SE CT/THE
TWIN FORKS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WHILE LOCALLY DENSE FOG CANNOT
BE RULED OUT - AM CURRENTLY NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN ITS POTENTIAL
TO ISSUE ANY STATEMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
REGION REMAINS UNDER THE BASE OF 700-500 HPA TROUGH MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE A FEW SHORTWAVES ROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH - BUT GIVEN FORECAST DRYING IN THE LOW LEVELS WOULD ONLY
EXPECT AT MOST SOME CLOUDS AS THEY PASS. SO GOING WITH A MOSTLY
SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY MONDAY AND A MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR SKY
MONDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT.

FOR HIGHS MONDAY USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 875 HPA...EXCEPT
850 HPA OVER THE NW 1/4 OF THE CWA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE. EXPECT
READINGS TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR LOWS MONDAY NIGHT - WITH
READINGS FORECAST TO BE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF ORANGE COUNTY.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC BEACHES
MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE EAST COAST TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH SUNDAY.

AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WHILE
ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM CENTRAL CANADA. THE COMBINED
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND
THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH THEN
BUILDS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY AND REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY INTO
SUNDAY. INITIALLY THE AIR MASS WILL BE COOL TUESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A
WARMING TREND SETS UP FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE AIR
MASS MODIFIES. NEXT WEEKEND TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE REBOUNDED TO
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A CDFNT ACROSS UPSTATE NY WILL PASS THRU THE REGION OVERNIGHT.

LGT AND VRB WINDS BECOMING SW AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER THIS EVE.
WINDS SWITCH TO THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT. STRONG NW FLOW MON WITH
ISOLD GUSTS TO 30KT.

MAINLY VFR AHEAD OF THE FRONT...HOWEVER OCNL MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE IN
THE CITY AND IFR ERN TERMINALS. A FEW -SHRA POSSIBLE INVOF THE
FRONT...THEN VFR THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUE THROUGH THU...
.MON NIGHT...VFR. NW WINDS DIMINISHING.
.TUE...VFR WITH LGT WINDS.
.WED...MVFR CIGS AROUND 3000FT POSSIBLE. ENE WINDS 5-15KT.
.THU...VFR WITH LGT NE FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS BUILD TO UP TO 5 FT ON THE WESTERN COASTAL OCEAN WATERS AND
UP TO 8 FT ON THE EASTERN COASTAL OCEAN WATERS BY LATE TONIGHT.
WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS ON MONDAY
- HAVE CONVERTED SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS TO A PLAIN SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY. SCA WIND GUSTS SHOULD LINGER OVER THE EASTERN TWO
COASTAL WATER ZONES INTO MONDAY EVENING AND SCA LEVEL SEAS THROUGH
THE NIGHT IN THOSE TWO ZONES...SO HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA FOR
ANZ-350 AND 353 THROUGH 10Z TUESDAY AS A RESULT.

ON THE REMAINDER OF THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE
CURRENTLY EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT ARE
FORECAST ON MONDAY - HOWEVER OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25KT CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ACROSS THE EXTREME OUTER
OCEAN WATERS EAST OF MORICHES INLET VERY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS
SEAS WILL BE SUBSIDING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WATERS TUESDAY INTO SATURDAY WIND AND
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LITTLE IF ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
THE PASSING OF A COASTAL LOW TO THE EAST AND THE PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT.

DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/MET
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/DS/MET
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...JMC/GOODMAN
MARINE...MALOIT/MET
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT







000
FXUS61 KALY 212353
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
753 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING... BRINGING
SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM TO THE AREA. COOLER AND
BRISK CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL RETURN FOR
LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...MOST OF NEXT WEEK
LOOKS DRY...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...THEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 750 PM...BROKEN LINES OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS HAVE MOVED WELL
OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN SURFACE COLD FRONT...WHICH IS CROSSING
CENTRAL NY AT THIS TIME. THE LEADING BAND OF SHOWERS IS MOVING
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND APPROACHING THE UPPER HUDSON
VALLEY. WHILE A WEAKENING TREND HAS BEEN NOTED...THERE STILL COULD
BE A BRIEF DOWNPOUR AND SOME GUSTY WIND. ANOTHER BATCH OF SHOWERS
PRECEDING THE COLD FRONT IS FARTHER WEST IMPACTING THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. WILL MENTION THE HIGHEST
POPS FOR AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...WITH
DECREASING POPS SOUTH AND EAST DUE TO EXPECTED CONTINUING
WEAKENING AND DECREASING COVERAGE OF THE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN LATE EVENING
AND THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE WEST-
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT. SOME ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY LATER TONIGHT AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES IN...HOWEVER MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE TRAILING UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL KEEP CONDITIONS UNSTABLE ENOUGH
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY TO FORECAST POPS OF 20 TO 40
PERCENT ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...MAINLY DURING THE MORNING. ONLY
THE FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA IS FORECAST TO BE DRY. BY
LATER IN THE DAY...MOST OF THE REGION FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EAST IS
FORECAST TO BE DRY...WITH ONLY 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS TO THE WEST.
TEMPS ON MONDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL TROF.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S AND 60S...WITH A NORTHWEST WIND GUSTING UP
TO 30 MPH AT TIMES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE ENTIRE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL FEATURE PLENTY OF DAYTIME
SUNSHINE AND CLEAR SKIES EACH NIGHT...AS OUR REGION WILL BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A SPRAWLING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THE
RIDGE LOOKS TO BECOME FIRMLY ESTABLISHED WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...THEN EVEN STRENGTHEN OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE GFS/ECMWF
INDICATING 500 MB HEIGHTS INCREASING TO NEAR 590 DAM OVER THE
NORTHEAST CONUS. SINCE WE WILL BE APPROACHING THE END OF
SEPTEMBER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BUT NOT OPPRESSIVELY
HOT DUE TO LOWER SUN ANGLE AND LESS DAYLIGHT COMPARED TO DURING THE
SUMMER.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD INITIALLY BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN
START TO WARM AS THE AIR MASS MODIFIES. FULL OR NEAR-FULL SUNSHINE
EACH DAY WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN
MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
REMAIN IN THE COMFORTABLE RANGE...WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE
40S INCREASING INTO THE 50S OVER THE WEEKEND. OVERALL QUITE A
PLEASANT STRETCH OF WEATHER FOR THE LAST FULL WEEK OF SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT PUSHING EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK EARLY THIS
EVENING...WILL STEADILY ADVANCE EASTWARD AND CROSS THE TERMINALS
BETWEEN LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. BROKEN LINES OF CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AS THEY APPROACH THE
HUDSON VALLEY BETWEEN 00Z-03Z...BUT COULD STILL PRODUCE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SHOWERS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND MVFR CONDITIONS. WILL
MENTION TEMPOS FOR KALB/KGFL/KPSF BUT ONLY VCSH AT KPOU SINCE IT IS
LESS CERTAIN SHOWERS WILL HOLD TOGETHER FARTHER SOUTH.

THE COLD FRONT WILL LAG BEHIND THE SHOWERS BY A FEW HOURS...BUT
SHOULD CLEAR THE ENTIRE AREA BY AROUND 06Z. THEN VARYING MVFR/VFR
CIGS WILL BE PREVALENT WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME SETTING UP
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING IN DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS WITH BKN CIGS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF
MONDAY...BEFORE SKIES START TO CLEAR BY DARK.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 5-10 KT PRECEDING THE COLD
FRONT...THEN SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND INCREASE TO
SPEEDS OF 12-16 KT ON MONDAY. GUSTS OVER 20 OR EVEN 25 KT WILL BE
COMMON FROM LATE MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN LOWER TO
BETWEEN 45 AND 70 PERCENT ON MONDAY. THERE WILL BE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...THEN
WE DRY OUT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND BEGIN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
RAIN FREE WEATHER THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.

SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 20 MPH TODAY.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE TO 15 TO
20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...BRINGING
SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM. WHERE RAINFALL OCCURS...
AMOUNTS WILL BE A TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ACROSS ADIRONDACKS.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/JPV
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM







000
FXUS61 KALY 212353
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
753 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING... BRINGING
SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM TO THE AREA. COOLER AND
BRISK CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL RETURN FOR
LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...MOST OF NEXT WEEK
LOOKS DRY...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...THEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 750 PM...BROKEN LINES OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS HAVE MOVED WELL
OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN SURFACE COLD FRONT...WHICH IS CROSSING
CENTRAL NY AT THIS TIME. THE LEADING BAND OF SHOWERS IS MOVING
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND APPROACHING THE UPPER HUDSON
VALLEY. WHILE A WEAKENING TREND HAS BEEN NOTED...THERE STILL COULD
BE A BRIEF DOWNPOUR AND SOME GUSTY WIND. ANOTHER BATCH OF SHOWERS
PRECEDING THE COLD FRONT IS FARTHER WEST IMPACTING THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. WILL MENTION THE HIGHEST
POPS FOR AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...WITH
DECREASING POPS SOUTH AND EAST DUE TO EXPECTED CONTINUING
WEAKENING AND DECREASING COVERAGE OF THE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN LATE EVENING
AND THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE WEST-
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT. SOME ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY LATER TONIGHT AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES IN...HOWEVER MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE TRAILING UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL KEEP CONDITIONS UNSTABLE ENOUGH
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY TO FORECAST POPS OF 20 TO 40
PERCENT ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...MAINLY DURING THE MORNING. ONLY
THE FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA IS FORECAST TO BE DRY. BY
LATER IN THE DAY...MOST OF THE REGION FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EAST IS
FORECAST TO BE DRY...WITH ONLY 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS TO THE WEST.
TEMPS ON MONDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL TROF.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S AND 60S...WITH A NORTHWEST WIND GUSTING UP
TO 30 MPH AT TIMES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE ENTIRE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL FEATURE PLENTY OF DAYTIME
SUNSHINE AND CLEAR SKIES EACH NIGHT...AS OUR REGION WILL BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A SPRAWLING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THE
RIDGE LOOKS TO BECOME FIRMLY ESTABLISHED WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...THEN EVEN STRENGTHEN OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE GFS/ECMWF
INDICATING 500 MB HEIGHTS INCREASING TO NEAR 590 DAM OVER THE
NORTHEAST CONUS. SINCE WE WILL BE APPROACHING THE END OF
SEPTEMBER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BUT NOT OPPRESSIVELY
HOT DUE TO LOWER SUN ANGLE AND LESS DAYLIGHT COMPARED TO DURING THE
SUMMER.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD INITIALLY BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN
START TO WARM AS THE AIR MASS MODIFIES. FULL OR NEAR-FULL SUNSHINE
EACH DAY WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN
MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
REMAIN IN THE COMFORTABLE RANGE...WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE
40S INCREASING INTO THE 50S OVER THE WEEKEND. OVERALL QUITE A
PLEASANT STRETCH OF WEATHER FOR THE LAST FULL WEEK OF SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT PUSHING EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK EARLY THIS
EVENING...WILL STEADILY ADVANCE EASTWARD AND CROSS THE TERMINALS
BETWEEN LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. BROKEN LINES OF CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AS THEY APPROACH THE
HUDSON VALLEY BETWEEN 00Z-03Z...BUT COULD STILL PRODUCE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SHOWERS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND MVFR CONDITIONS. WILL
MENTION TEMPOS FOR KALB/KGFL/KPSF BUT ONLY VCSH AT KPOU SINCE IT IS
LESS CERTAIN SHOWERS WILL HOLD TOGETHER FARTHER SOUTH.

THE COLD FRONT WILL LAG BEHIND THE SHOWERS BY A FEW HOURS...BUT
SHOULD CLEAR THE ENTIRE AREA BY AROUND 06Z. THEN VARYING MVFR/VFR
CIGS WILL BE PREVALENT WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME SETTING UP
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING IN DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS WITH BKN CIGS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF
MONDAY...BEFORE SKIES START TO CLEAR BY DARK.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 5-10 KT PRECEDING THE COLD
FRONT...THEN SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND INCREASE TO
SPEEDS OF 12-16 KT ON MONDAY. GUSTS OVER 20 OR EVEN 25 KT WILL BE
COMMON FROM LATE MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN LOWER TO
BETWEEN 45 AND 70 PERCENT ON MONDAY. THERE WILL BE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...THEN
WE DRY OUT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND BEGIN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
RAIN FREE WEATHER THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.

SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 20 MPH TODAY.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE TO 15 TO
20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...BRINGING
SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM. WHERE RAINFALL OCCURS...
AMOUNTS WILL BE A TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ACROSS ADIRONDACKS.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/JPV
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM







000
FXUS61 KALY 212353
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
753 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING... BRINGING
SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM TO THE AREA. COOLER AND
BRISK CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL RETURN FOR
LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...MOST OF NEXT WEEK
LOOKS DRY...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...THEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 750 PM...BROKEN LINES OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS HAVE MOVED WELL
OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN SURFACE COLD FRONT...WHICH IS CROSSING
CENTRAL NY AT THIS TIME. THE LEADING BAND OF SHOWERS IS MOVING
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND APPROACHING THE UPPER HUDSON
VALLEY. WHILE A WEAKENING TREND HAS BEEN NOTED...THERE STILL COULD
BE A BRIEF DOWNPOUR AND SOME GUSTY WIND. ANOTHER BATCH OF SHOWERS
PRECEDING THE COLD FRONT IS FARTHER WEST IMPACTING THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. WILL MENTION THE HIGHEST
POPS FOR AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...WITH
DECREASING POPS SOUTH AND EAST DUE TO EXPECTED CONTINUING
WEAKENING AND DECREASING COVERAGE OF THE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN LATE EVENING
AND THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE WEST-
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT. SOME ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY LATER TONIGHT AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES IN...HOWEVER MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE TRAILING UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL KEEP CONDITIONS UNSTABLE ENOUGH
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY TO FORECAST POPS OF 20 TO 40
PERCENT ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...MAINLY DURING THE MORNING. ONLY
THE FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA IS FORECAST TO BE DRY. BY
LATER IN THE DAY...MOST OF THE REGION FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EAST IS
FORECAST TO BE DRY...WITH ONLY 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS TO THE WEST.
TEMPS ON MONDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL TROF.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S AND 60S...WITH A NORTHWEST WIND GUSTING UP
TO 30 MPH AT TIMES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE ENTIRE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL FEATURE PLENTY OF DAYTIME
SUNSHINE AND CLEAR SKIES EACH NIGHT...AS OUR REGION WILL BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A SPRAWLING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THE
RIDGE LOOKS TO BECOME FIRMLY ESTABLISHED WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...THEN EVEN STRENGTHEN OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE GFS/ECMWF
INDICATING 500 MB HEIGHTS INCREASING TO NEAR 590 DAM OVER THE
NORTHEAST CONUS. SINCE WE WILL BE APPROACHING THE END OF
SEPTEMBER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BUT NOT OPPRESSIVELY
HOT DUE TO LOWER SUN ANGLE AND LESS DAYLIGHT COMPARED TO DURING THE
SUMMER.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD INITIALLY BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN
START TO WARM AS THE AIR MASS MODIFIES. FULL OR NEAR-FULL SUNSHINE
EACH DAY WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN
MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
REMAIN IN THE COMFORTABLE RANGE...WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE
40S INCREASING INTO THE 50S OVER THE WEEKEND. OVERALL QUITE A
PLEASANT STRETCH OF WEATHER FOR THE LAST FULL WEEK OF SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT PUSHING EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK EARLY THIS
EVENING...WILL STEADILY ADVANCE EASTWARD AND CROSS THE TERMINALS
BETWEEN LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. BROKEN LINES OF CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AS THEY APPROACH THE
HUDSON VALLEY BETWEEN 00Z-03Z...BUT COULD STILL PRODUCE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SHOWERS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND MVFR CONDITIONS. WILL
MENTION TEMPOS FOR KALB/KGFL/KPSF BUT ONLY VCSH AT KPOU SINCE IT IS
LESS CERTAIN SHOWERS WILL HOLD TOGETHER FARTHER SOUTH.

THE COLD FRONT WILL LAG BEHIND THE SHOWERS BY A FEW HOURS...BUT
SHOULD CLEAR THE ENTIRE AREA BY AROUND 06Z. THEN VARYING MVFR/VFR
CIGS WILL BE PREVALENT WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME SETTING UP
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING IN DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS WITH BKN CIGS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF
MONDAY...BEFORE SKIES START TO CLEAR BY DARK.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 5-10 KT PRECEDING THE COLD
FRONT...THEN SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND INCREASE TO
SPEEDS OF 12-16 KT ON MONDAY. GUSTS OVER 20 OR EVEN 25 KT WILL BE
COMMON FROM LATE MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN LOWER TO
BETWEEN 45 AND 70 PERCENT ON MONDAY. THERE WILL BE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...THEN
WE DRY OUT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND BEGIN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
RAIN FREE WEATHER THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.

SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 20 MPH TODAY.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE TO 15 TO
20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...BRINGING
SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM. WHERE RAINFALL OCCURS...
AMOUNTS WILL BE A TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ACROSS ADIRONDACKS.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/JPV
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM







000
FXUS61 KALY 212353
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
753 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING... BRINGING
SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM TO THE AREA. COOLER AND
BRISK CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL RETURN FOR
LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...MOST OF NEXT WEEK
LOOKS DRY...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...THEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 750 PM...BROKEN LINES OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS HAVE MOVED WELL
OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN SURFACE COLD FRONT...WHICH IS CROSSING
CENTRAL NY AT THIS TIME. THE LEADING BAND OF SHOWERS IS MOVING
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND APPROACHING THE UPPER HUDSON
VALLEY. WHILE A WEAKENING TREND HAS BEEN NOTED...THERE STILL COULD
BE A BRIEF DOWNPOUR AND SOME GUSTY WIND. ANOTHER BATCH OF SHOWERS
PRECEDING THE COLD FRONT IS FARTHER WEST IMPACTING THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. WILL MENTION THE HIGHEST
POPS FOR AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...WITH
DECREASING POPS SOUTH AND EAST DUE TO EXPECTED CONTINUING
WEAKENING AND DECREASING COVERAGE OF THE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN LATE EVENING
AND THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE WEST-
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT. SOME ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY LATER TONIGHT AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES IN...HOWEVER MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE TRAILING UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL KEEP CONDITIONS UNSTABLE ENOUGH
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY TO FORECAST POPS OF 20 TO 40
PERCENT ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...MAINLY DURING THE MORNING. ONLY
THE FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA IS FORECAST TO BE DRY. BY
LATER IN THE DAY...MOST OF THE REGION FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EAST IS
FORECAST TO BE DRY...WITH ONLY 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS TO THE WEST.
TEMPS ON MONDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL TROF.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S AND 60S...WITH A NORTHWEST WIND GUSTING UP
TO 30 MPH AT TIMES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE ENTIRE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL FEATURE PLENTY OF DAYTIME
SUNSHINE AND CLEAR SKIES EACH NIGHT...AS OUR REGION WILL BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A SPRAWLING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THE
RIDGE LOOKS TO BECOME FIRMLY ESTABLISHED WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...THEN EVEN STRENGTHEN OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE GFS/ECMWF
INDICATING 500 MB HEIGHTS INCREASING TO NEAR 590 DAM OVER THE
NORTHEAST CONUS. SINCE WE WILL BE APPROACHING THE END OF
SEPTEMBER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BUT NOT OPPRESSIVELY
HOT DUE TO LOWER SUN ANGLE AND LESS DAYLIGHT COMPARED TO DURING THE
SUMMER.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD INITIALLY BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN
START TO WARM AS THE AIR MASS MODIFIES. FULL OR NEAR-FULL SUNSHINE
EACH DAY WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN
MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
REMAIN IN THE COMFORTABLE RANGE...WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE
40S INCREASING INTO THE 50S OVER THE WEEKEND. OVERALL QUITE A
PLEASANT STRETCH OF WEATHER FOR THE LAST FULL WEEK OF SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT PUSHING EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK EARLY THIS
EVENING...WILL STEADILY ADVANCE EASTWARD AND CROSS THE TERMINALS
BETWEEN LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. BROKEN LINES OF CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AS THEY APPROACH THE
HUDSON VALLEY BETWEEN 00Z-03Z...BUT COULD STILL PRODUCE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SHOWERS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND MVFR CONDITIONS. WILL
MENTION TEMPOS FOR KALB/KGFL/KPSF BUT ONLY VCSH AT KPOU SINCE IT IS
LESS CERTAIN SHOWERS WILL HOLD TOGETHER FARTHER SOUTH.

THE COLD FRONT WILL LAG BEHIND THE SHOWERS BY A FEW HOURS...BUT
SHOULD CLEAR THE ENTIRE AREA BY AROUND 06Z. THEN VARYING MVFR/VFR
CIGS WILL BE PREVALENT WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME SETTING UP
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING IN DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS WITH BKN CIGS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF
MONDAY...BEFORE SKIES START TO CLEAR BY DARK.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 5-10 KT PRECEDING THE COLD
FRONT...THEN SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND INCREASE TO
SPEEDS OF 12-16 KT ON MONDAY. GUSTS OVER 20 OR EVEN 25 KT WILL BE
COMMON FROM LATE MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN LOWER TO
BETWEEN 45 AND 70 PERCENT ON MONDAY. THERE WILL BE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...THEN
WE DRY OUT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND BEGIN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
RAIN FREE WEATHER THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.

SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 20 MPH TODAY.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE TO 15 TO
20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...BRINGING
SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM. WHERE RAINFALL OCCURS...
AMOUNTS WILL BE A TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ACROSS ADIRONDACKS.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/JPV
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM







000
FXUS61 KOKX 212348
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
748 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING...AND CROSSES
THE TRI-STATE TONIGHT...MEANWHILE A COASTAL LOW TRACKS TO THE
EAST...THEN NORTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH TUESDAY. THE HIGH THEN DOMINATES
THE WEATHER THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WAS SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND AND MOVING
QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST. MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THE LOW
WAS EXITING THE SOUTH FORK OF LONG ISLAND AND THE OCEAN WATERS
SOUTH OF THE EAST END. MEANWHILE THE LINE OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST. THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AHEAD OF
THE MAIN LINE HAVE DISSIPATED. SO HAVE ADJUSTED POPS FOR CURRENT
TRENDS.

700-500 HPA TROUGH APPROACHES THIS EVENING THEN BEGINS TO CROSS
THE TRI-STATE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THE OTHER LINE TO WEAKEN AS IT
TRACKS EAST WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND BEST DYNAMICS STAYING TO
THE NW/N.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT SUED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH VALUES
FORECAST TO BE 4 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL OUTSIDE OF THE NYC HEAT
ISLAND...AND NEAR NORMAL INSIDE THE HEAT ISLAND AND AREAS TO THE
N/W OF NYC DUE TO THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT.

ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG THIS EVENING OVER SE CT/THE
TWIN FORKS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WHILE LOCALLY DENSE FOG CANNOT
BE RULED OUT - AM CURRENTLY NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN ITS POTENTIAL
TO ISSUE ANY STATEMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
REGION REMAINS UNDER THE BASE OF 700-500 HPA TROUGH MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE A FEW SHORTWAVES ROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH - BUT GIVEN FORECAST DRYING IN THE LOW LEVELS WOULD ONLY
EXPECT AT MOST SOME CLOUDS AS THEY PASS. SO GOING WITH A MOSTLY
SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY MONDAY AND A MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR SKY
MONDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT.

FOR HIGHS MONDAY USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 875 HPA...EXCEPT
850 HPA OVER THE NW 1/4 OF THE CWA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE. EXPECT
READINGS TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR LOWS MONDAY NIGHT - WITH
READINGS FORECAST TO BE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF ORANGE COUNTY.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC BEACHES
MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE EAST COAST TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH SUNDAY.

AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WHILE
ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM CENTRAL CANADA. THE COMBINED
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND
THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH THEN
BUILDS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY AND REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY INTO
SUNDAY. INITIALLY THE AIR MASS WILL BE COOL TUESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A
WARMING TREND SETS UP FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE AIR
MASS MODIFIES. NEXT WEEKEND TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE REBOUNDED TO
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A CDFNT ACROSS UPSTATE NY WILL PASS THRU THE REGION OVERNIGHT.

LGT AND VRB WINDS BECOMING SW AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER THIS EVE.
WINDS SWITCH TO THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT. STRONG NW FLOW MON WITH
ISOLD GUSTS TO 30KT.

MAINLY VFR AHEAD OF THE FRONT...HOWEVER OCNL MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE IN
THE CITY AND IFR ERN TERMINALS. A FEW -SHRA POSSIBLE INVOF THE
FRONT...THEN VFR THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUE THROUGH THU...
.MON NIGHT...VFR. NW WINDS DIMINISHING.
.TUE...VFR WITH LGT WINDS.
.WED...MVFR CIGS AROUND 3000FT POSSIBLE. ENE WINDS 5-15KT.
.THU...VFR WITH LGT NE FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS BUILD TO UP TO 5 FT ON THE WESTERN COASTAL OCEAN WATERS AND
UP TO 8 FT ON THE EASTERN COASTAL OCEAN WATERS BY LATE TONIGHT.
WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS ON MONDAY
- HAVE CONVERTED SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS TO A PLAIN SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY. SCA WIND GUSTS SHOULD LINGER OVER THE EASTERN TWO
COASTAL WATER ZONES INTO MONDAY EVENING AND SCA LEVEL SEAS THROUGH
THE NIGHT IN THOSE TWO ZONES...SO HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA FOR
ANZ-350 AND 353 THROUGH 10Z TUESDAY AS A RESULT.

ON THE REMAINDER OF THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE
CURRENTLY EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT ARE
FORECAST ON MONDAY - HOWEVER OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25KT CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ACROSS THE EXTREME OUTER
OCEAN WATERS EAST OF MORICHES INLET VERY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS
SEAS WILL BE SUBSIDING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WATERS TUESDAY INTO SATURDAY WIND AND
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LITTLE IF ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
THE PASSING OF A COASTAL LOW TO THE EAST AND THE PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT.

DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/MET
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/MET
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...MALOIT/MET
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT









000
FXUS61 KBOX 212307
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
707 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN WILL AFFECT THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND
COAST THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...DRIER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER IS
ON TAP FOR MONDAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNNY DAYS AND CLEAR NIGHTS TO THE
REGION FROM TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH A WARMING TREND. WE
COULD APPROACH RECORD WARMTH ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...

***A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN THIS EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST NEW
 ENGLAND COAST***

7 PM UPDATE...SCATTERED DIURNAL-INDUCED SHOWERS HAVE BEGUN TO
DISSIPATE OVER THE INTERIOR WITH SUNDOWN. A FEW HEAVY SHOWERS WERE
STILL IN BOSTON/S SOUTH SHORE HEADING NORTH. AREA OF STEADY RAIN
CONTINUES OVER THE ISLANDS. AREAS OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG HAD
FORMED...AT MARSHFIELD AND FALMOUTH IN SOUTHEAST MA. WILL NEED TO
KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS TO SEE IF IT BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD. IF
SO...A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. OTHERWISE VERY MUGGY
AIRMASS CONTINUES. LITTLE CHANGE TO TEMPERATURES OR POPS AT THIS
UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITH DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS ALLOWED
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUED TO AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  WE SHOULD SEE THIS ACTIVITY DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST WHICH WILL BE TRACKING NORTHEAST AND PASSING NEAR THE
BENCHMARK THIS EVENING. THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW FAR NORTHWEST
THE RAIN SHIELD WILL GET. LATEST NEAR TERM GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
TRENDING FURTHER NORTHWEST. THEREFORE...EXPECT A PERIOD OF STEADY
RAIN ACROSS THE CAPE/ISLANDS AND PROBABLY FURTHER NORTHWEST INTO
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MA/RHODE ISLAND FOR AT LEAST A TIME. IN
FACT...LATEST HRRR SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MA COAST INCLUDING BOSTON. NOT SURE IF
IT WILL GET THAT FAR NORTHWEST...BUT ITS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.
REGARDLESS...THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS NANTUCKET...
WHERE BETWEEN 0.50 TO PERHAPS UP TO 1 INCH OF RAIN MAY OCCUR.
THE RAIN MAY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING ACROSS THE CAPE
AND ISLANDS...BUT SHOULD WIND DOWN NEAR OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT.

MEANWHILE...ONCE THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SCATTERED SHOWERS WIND DOWN EARLY THIS EVENING...THE REST OF THE
REGION WILL MAINLY BE DRY TONIGHT.  HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING OUR WESTERN ZONES TOWARD MIDNIGHT.  WHILE SHEAR IS QUITE
IMPRESSIVE...VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY WILL BE LEFT.  SO WHILE WE MAY
SEE A FEW SPOT SHOWERS AFFECT OUR WESTERN ZONES...THEY WILL BE IN
THE PROCESS OF WEAKENING AND NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN THAT. LOW
TEMPS WILL ONLY BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 50S AND THE LOWER 60S BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY...

A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL WORK INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. WHILE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED EARLY...MAY SEE A SCATTERED TO BROKEN DECK OF STRATO-
CUMULUS CLOUDS WORK INTO AT LEAST THE INTERIOR BY AFTERNOON. HIGHS
SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE INTERIOR...BUT STILL WILL
REACH BETWEEN 70 AND 75 ALONG HE COASTAL PLAIN. GUSTY WEST WINDS
OF 20 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED AS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWING VERY GOOD
MIXING.

HIGH SURF...GIVEN LARGE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SWELL FROM DEPARTING
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAVE ISSUED A HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR THE
SOUTH COAST ON MONDAY.  WE ISSUE HIGH SURF PRODUCTS THROUGH THE END
OF SEPTEMBER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

MONDAY NIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.  THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR DIMINISHING WINDS AND SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR.  LOOKS LIKE
A PRETTY GOOD NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING...WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT
IN THE UPPER 30S TO THE MIDDLE 40S IN MOST LOCALES.  THE URBAN HEAT
ISLAND OF BOSTON WILL BE THE MILD SPOT WITH THE LOW BOTTOMING OUT
NEAR 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD
* NEAR RECORD WARMTH POSSIBLE NEXT SATURDAY

OVERVIEW...
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST MODEL GUIDANCE THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEPARTS THE NORTHEAST STATES ON
TUESDAY. THEN...MUCH ADO ABOUT BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE...BOTH AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE
IS VERY STRONG AS IT IS PARKED FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND BY NEXT WEEKEND.

DETAILS... TUESDAY WILL FEATURE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXCEPT ONLY
PARTLY SUNNY NW MA AND SW NH CLOSER TO SOME HIGHER 925 MB
HUMIDITY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SUNNY DAYS AND CLEAR NIGHTS THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND. HAVE GONE A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN MODEL CONSENSUS
TEMPERATURE MINIMUMS THROUGH THU DUE TO EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING EXPECTED ALONG WITH VERY DRY DEWPOINTS. AS THE CENTER OF
THE UPPER HIGH APPROACHES...AM EXPECTING A DRAMATIC WARMUP FRI
AND ESPECIALLY SAT. THE 12Z ECMWF RUN IS EVEN WARMER THAN THE
PREVIOUS RUN WITH 925 MB TEMPERATURES WARMING FROM +12C TUE...TO
+17C FRI... TO +19C OR +20C ON SAT... WITH WARM TEMPERATURES
LIKELY CONTINUING INTO EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK. HAVE GONE SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE MODEL CONSENSUS MAXIMUMS FOR NEXT SATURDAY...WITH
HIGHS SOARING TO 80 TO 85 ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
RECORDS FOR THAT DAY INCLUDE 85 AT WORCESTER AND 86 AT BOTH BOSTON
AND PROVIDENCE.

LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE PERIOD...SO ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE
DRY WE ARE NOT EXPECTING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. LOCAL SEA BREEZES
WILL OCCUR...ESPECIALLY FRI THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT THE GFS HAS A HINT OF A POTENTIAL BACKDOOR FRONT/TROUGH
OVER NORTHEAST MA ON SAT BUT THIS WAS NOT ENOUGH TO DETRACT FROM
THE VERY WARM FORECAST...AS YET.

AN UPPER LOW OVER VIRGINIA AND AN ASSOCIATED INVERTED TROUGH IS
LIKELY TO BE CAUSING PRECIPITATION IN THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
MID TO LATE IN THE WORK WEEK THAT TRIES TO WORK ITS WAY NORTHWARD.
THERE IS EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THIS AREA ONLY GETS AS
FAR NORTHWARD AS OFF THE NJ COAST BY FRI...BEFORE RETREATING
SOUTHWARD AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE
NORTHEAST ON THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME
LOW IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST MA INCLUDING THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS WITH VISIBILITIES BELOW 1/2 MILE AT TIMES IN LOCALLY DENSE
FOG. MOST OF THE REST OF THE REGION WILL BE MVFR CEILINGS...WITH
MANY AREAS BECOMING IFR CEILINGS BETWEEN 02Z AND 06Z. BEST
CONFIDENCE FOR IFR IS FROM ABOUT A JAFFREY-WORCESTER-WILLIMANTIC
LINE EASTWARD. STEADY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE
FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS EVENING. THE RAIN WILL LIKELY
REACH INTO RHODE ISLAND/INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MA FOR A SHORT TIME AND
PERHAPS EVEN INTO NORTHEAST MA.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.
JUST A LOW RISK FOR BRIEF MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE INTERIOR ON MONDAY
AS A DECK OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS MOVES INTO THE REGION.
OTHERWISE...GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS
EXPECTED DURING THE DAY MONDAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE TONIGHT WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON
MONDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE TONIGHT WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON
MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TUE...VFR.
WED...VFR
THU...VFR.
FRI...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LOW PRESSURE PASSING NEAR
THE BENCHMARK WILL RESULT IN ENOUGH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SWELL FOR
SCA SEAS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS AND WESTERN SOUNDS.
SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD BECOME SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS
LATER TONIGHT. AREAS OF FOG...SOME LOCALLY DENSE...WILL OCCUR
ACROSS THE WATERS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF BOSTON HARBOR.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  SCA SEAS
ON THE WESTERN SOUNDS AND OUTER-WATERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...A PERIOD OF WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS IS POSSIBLE FOR A TIME ON MONDAY.
THEREFORE...IT IS POSSIBLE WE MAY NEED TO EXPAND SCA FOR A TIME
DURING THE DAY MONDAY INTO SOME OF THE NEARSHORE SOUNDS AND
WATERS. CONFIDENCE NOT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH TO DO THIS RIGHT NOW...
SO WILL DEFER TO THE NEXT SHIFT.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

TUE AND WED...SEAS NEAR 5 FT MAY LINGER AT TIMES TUE AND WED OVER
THE WATERS S AND E OF NANTUCKET. OTHERWISE WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD
BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. A NORTHEAST WIND GRADIENT
WILL INCREASE OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS TUE NIGHT INTO WED
AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BUT
GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY REACH 20 KT.

WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI...QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING THE WEATHER. WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 5 PM EDT MONDAY FOR MAZ020>024.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 5 PM EDT MONDAY FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 4 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/FIELD
NEAR TERM...FIELD/FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...FIELD
AVIATION...FIELD/FRANK
MARINE...FIELD/FRANK



000
FXUS61 KBOX 212307
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
707 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN WILL AFFECT THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND
COAST THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...DRIER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER IS
ON TAP FOR MONDAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNNY DAYS AND CLEAR NIGHTS TO THE
REGION FROM TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH A WARMING TREND. WE
COULD APPROACH RECORD WARMTH ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...

***A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN THIS EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST NEW
 ENGLAND COAST***

7 PM UPDATE...SCATTERED DIURNAL-INDUCED SHOWERS HAVE BEGUN TO
DISSIPATE OVER THE INTERIOR WITH SUNDOWN. A FEW HEAVY SHOWERS WERE
STILL IN BOSTON/S SOUTH SHORE HEADING NORTH. AREA OF STEADY RAIN
CONTINUES OVER THE ISLANDS. AREAS OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG HAD
FORMED...AT MARSHFIELD AND FALMOUTH IN SOUTHEAST MA. WILL NEED TO
KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS TO SEE IF IT BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD. IF
SO...A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. OTHERWISE VERY MUGGY
AIRMASS CONTINUES. LITTLE CHANGE TO TEMPERATURES OR POPS AT THIS
UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITH DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS ALLOWED
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUED TO AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  WE SHOULD SEE THIS ACTIVITY DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST WHICH WILL BE TRACKING NORTHEAST AND PASSING NEAR THE
BENCHMARK THIS EVENING. THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW FAR NORTHWEST
THE RAIN SHIELD WILL GET. LATEST NEAR TERM GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
TRENDING FURTHER NORTHWEST. THEREFORE...EXPECT A PERIOD OF STEADY
RAIN ACROSS THE CAPE/ISLANDS AND PROBABLY FURTHER NORTHWEST INTO
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MA/RHODE ISLAND FOR AT LEAST A TIME. IN
FACT...LATEST HRRR SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MA COAST INCLUDING BOSTON. NOT SURE IF
IT WILL GET THAT FAR NORTHWEST...BUT ITS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.
REGARDLESS...THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS NANTUCKET...
WHERE BETWEEN 0.50 TO PERHAPS UP TO 1 INCH OF RAIN MAY OCCUR.
THE RAIN MAY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING ACROSS THE CAPE
AND ISLANDS...BUT SHOULD WIND DOWN NEAR OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT.

MEANWHILE...ONCE THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SCATTERED SHOWERS WIND DOWN EARLY THIS EVENING...THE REST OF THE
REGION WILL MAINLY BE DRY TONIGHT.  HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING OUR WESTERN ZONES TOWARD MIDNIGHT.  WHILE SHEAR IS QUITE
IMPRESSIVE...VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY WILL BE LEFT.  SO WHILE WE MAY
SEE A FEW SPOT SHOWERS AFFECT OUR WESTERN ZONES...THEY WILL BE IN
THE PROCESS OF WEAKENING AND NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN THAT. LOW
TEMPS WILL ONLY BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 50S AND THE LOWER 60S BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY...

A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL WORK INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. WHILE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED EARLY...MAY SEE A SCATTERED TO BROKEN DECK OF STRATO-
CUMULUS CLOUDS WORK INTO AT LEAST THE INTERIOR BY AFTERNOON. HIGHS
SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE INTERIOR...BUT STILL WILL
REACH BETWEEN 70 AND 75 ALONG HE COASTAL PLAIN. GUSTY WEST WINDS
OF 20 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED AS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWING VERY GOOD
MIXING.

HIGH SURF...GIVEN LARGE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SWELL FROM DEPARTING
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAVE ISSUED A HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR THE
SOUTH COAST ON MONDAY.  WE ISSUE HIGH SURF PRODUCTS THROUGH THE END
OF SEPTEMBER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

MONDAY NIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.  THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR DIMINISHING WINDS AND SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR.  LOOKS LIKE
A PRETTY GOOD NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING...WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT
IN THE UPPER 30S TO THE MIDDLE 40S IN MOST LOCALES.  THE URBAN HEAT
ISLAND OF BOSTON WILL BE THE MILD SPOT WITH THE LOW BOTTOMING OUT
NEAR 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD
* NEAR RECORD WARMTH POSSIBLE NEXT SATURDAY

OVERVIEW...
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST MODEL GUIDANCE THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEPARTS THE NORTHEAST STATES ON
TUESDAY. THEN...MUCH ADO ABOUT BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE...BOTH AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE
IS VERY STRONG AS IT IS PARKED FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND BY NEXT WEEKEND.

DETAILS... TUESDAY WILL FEATURE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXCEPT ONLY
PARTLY SUNNY NW MA AND SW NH CLOSER TO SOME HIGHER 925 MB
HUMIDITY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SUNNY DAYS AND CLEAR NIGHTS THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND. HAVE GONE A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN MODEL CONSENSUS
TEMPERATURE MINIMUMS THROUGH THU DUE TO EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING EXPECTED ALONG WITH VERY DRY DEWPOINTS. AS THE CENTER OF
THE UPPER HIGH APPROACHES...AM EXPECTING A DRAMATIC WARMUP FRI
AND ESPECIALLY SAT. THE 12Z ECMWF RUN IS EVEN WARMER THAN THE
PREVIOUS RUN WITH 925 MB TEMPERATURES WARMING FROM +12C TUE...TO
+17C FRI... TO +19C OR +20C ON SAT... WITH WARM TEMPERATURES
LIKELY CONTINUING INTO EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK. HAVE GONE SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE MODEL CONSENSUS MAXIMUMS FOR NEXT SATURDAY...WITH
HIGHS SOARING TO 80 TO 85 ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
RECORDS FOR THAT DAY INCLUDE 85 AT WORCESTER AND 86 AT BOTH BOSTON
AND PROVIDENCE.

LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE PERIOD...SO ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE
DRY WE ARE NOT EXPECTING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. LOCAL SEA BREEZES
WILL OCCUR...ESPECIALLY FRI THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT THE GFS HAS A HINT OF A POTENTIAL BACKDOOR FRONT/TROUGH
OVER NORTHEAST MA ON SAT BUT THIS WAS NOT ENOUGH TO DETRACT FROM
THE VERY WARM FORECAST...AS YET.

AN UPPER LOW OVER VIRGINIA AND AN ASSOCIATED INVERTED TROUGH IS
LIKELY TO BE CAUSING PRECIPITATION IN THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
MID TO LATE IN THE WORK WEEK THAT TRIES TO WORK ITS WAY NORTHWARD.
THERE IS EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THIS AREA ONLY GETS AS
FAR NORTHWARD AS OFF THE NJ COAST BY FRI...BEFORE RETREATING
SOUTHWARD AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE
NORTHEAST ON THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME
LOW IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST MA INCLUDING THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS WITH VISIBILITIES BELOW 1/2 MILE AT TIMES IN LOCALLY DENSE
FOG. MOST OF THE REST OF THE REGION WILL BE MVFR CEILINGS...WITH
MANY AREAS BECOMING IFR CEILINGS BETWEEN 02Z AND 06Z. BEST
CONFIDENCE FOR IFR IS FROM ABOUT A JAFFREY-WORCESTER-WILLIMANTIC
LINE EASTWARD. STEADY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE
FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS EVENING. THE RAIN WILL LIKELY
REACH INTO RHODE ISLAND/INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MA FOR A SHORT TIME AND
PERHAPS EVEN INTO NORTHEAST MA.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.
JUST A LOW RISK FOR BRIEF MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE INTERIOR ON MONDAY
AS A DECK OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS MOVES INTO THE REGION.
OTHERWISE...GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS
EXPECTED DURING THE DAY MONDAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE TONIGHT WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON
MONDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE TONIGHT WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON
MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TUE...VFR.
WED...VFR
THU...VFR.
FRI...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LOW PRESSURE PASSING NEAR
THE BENCHMARK WILL RESULT IN ENOUGH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SWELL FOR
SCA SEAS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS AND WESTERN SOUNDS.
SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD BECOME SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS
LATER TONIGHT. AREAS OF FOG...SOME LOCALLY DENSE...WILL OCCUR
ACROSS THE WATERS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF BOSTON HARBOR.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  SCA SEAS
ON THE WESTERN SOUNDS AND OUTER-WATERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...A PERIOD OF WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS IS POSSIBLE FOR A TIME ON MONDAY.
THEREFORE...IT IS POSSIBLE WE MAY NEED TO EXPAND SCA FOR A TIME
DURING THE DAY MONDAY INTO SOME OF THE NEARSHORE SOUNDS AND
WATERS. CONFIDENCE NOT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH TO DO THIS RIGHT NOW...
SO WILL DEFER TO THE NEXT SHIFT.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

TUE AND WED...SEAS NEAR 5 FT MAY LINGER AT TIMES TUE AND WED OVER
THE WATERS S AND E OF NANTUCKET. OTHERWISE WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD
BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. A NORTHEAST WIND GRADIENT
WILL INCREASE OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS TUE NIGHT INTO WED
AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BUT
GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY REACH 20 KT.

WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI...QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING THE WEATHER. WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 5 PM EDT MONDAY FOR MAZ020>024.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 5 PM EDT MONDAY FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 4 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/FIELD
NEAR TERM...FIELD/FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...FIELD
AVIATION...FIELD/FRANK
MARINE...FIELD/FRANK




000
FXUS61 KALY 212107
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
507 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING... BRINGING
SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM TO THE AREA. COOLER AND
BRISK CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL RETURN FOR
LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...MOST OF NEXT WEEK
LOOKS DRY...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...THEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 430 PM...A BROKEN TO SOLID LIVE OF SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS WAS
ACROSS CENTRAL NY. IT WAS MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD AND WILL NOT LIKELY
AFFECT THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL AFTER SUNSET...AND
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. AS A RESULT...WOULD EXPECT THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO SLOWLY BE DECREASING AS IT MOVES THROUGH MOST OF TH
ALBANY FORECAST...SO THE COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA FOR TONIGHT CONTINUES TO BE A CHALLENGE. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE THIS EVENING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHERE LIKELY POPS HAVE BEEN FORECAST. WHILE
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST CHANCES WILL BE THE LOWEST WITH ONLY 30 TO 40
PERCENT POPS FORECAST FOR EARLY TONIGHT. LATER TONIGHT THE POPS ARE
FORECAST TO DECREASE IN ALL AREAS.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE TRAILING UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL KEEP CONDITIONS UNSTABLE ENOUGH
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY TO FORECAST POPS OF 20 TO 40
PERCENT ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...MAINLY DURING THE MORNING. ONLY
THE FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA IS FORECAST TO BE DRY. BY
LATER IN THE DAY...MOST OF THE REGION FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EAST IS
FORECAST TO BE DRY...WITH ONLY 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS TO THE WEST.
TEMPS ON MONDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL TROF.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S AND 60S...WITH A NORTHWEST WIND GUSTING UP
TO 30 MPH AT TIMES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE ENTIRE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL FEATURE PLENTY OF DAYTIME
SUNSHINE AND CLEAR SKIES EACH NIGHT...AS OUR REGION WILL BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A SPRAWLING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THE
RIDGE LOOKS TO BECOME FIRMLY ESTABLISHED WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...THEN EVEN STRENGTHEN OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE GFS/ECMWF
INDICATING 500 MB HEIGHTS INCREASING TO NEAR 590 DAM OVER THE
NORTHEAST CONUS. SINCE WE WILL BE APPROACHING THE END OF
SEPTEMBER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BUT NOT OPPRESSIVELY
HOT DUE TO LOWER SUN ANGLE AND LESS DAYLIGHT COMPARED TO DURING THE
SUMMER.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD INITIALLY BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN
START TO WARM AS THE AIR MASS MODIFIES. FULL OR NEAR-FULL SUNSHINE
EACH DAY WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN
MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
REMAIN IN THE COMFORTABLE RANGE...WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE
40S INCREASING INTO THE 50S OVER THE WEEKEND. OVERALL QUITE A
PLEASANT STRETCH OF WEATHER FOR THE LAST FULL WEEK OF SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOWER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL LOW CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...KPOU AND KPSF...ALONG WITH
SOME WEAK/LIGHT SHOWERS. CLOUDS ARE ADVANCING INTO THE NORTHWEST
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND
LOW. WHILE INBETWEEN CLOUDS COVER HAS BEEN RATHER MINIMAL AT KGFL
AND KALB.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE...HOWEVER MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
LINGER A BIT LONGER THIS AFTERNOON AT KPOU. CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE
INCREASE AND ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

THERE ARE A COUPLE LINES OF SHOWERS OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE FRONT
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK INTO PENNSYLVANIA. THESES LINES
WILL MOVE EASTWARD...HOWEVER THEY ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SO HAVE
ADDRESS THREAT WITH VCSH IN TAFS.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO GUSTY ESPECIALLY UP THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING THEN SHIFT
TO THE WEST WITH THE PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT TONIGHT. ONCE DAYTIME
MIXING STARTS THE WESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY.

OUTLOOK...
MON THROUGH THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN LOWER TO
BETWEEN 45 AND 70 PERCENT ON MONDAY. THERE WILL BE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...THEN
WE DRY OUT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND BEGIN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
RAIN FREE WEATHER THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.

SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 20 MPH TODAY.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE TO 15 TO
20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...BRINGING
SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM. WHERE RAINFALL OCCURS...
AMOUNTS WILL BE A TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ACROSS ADIRONDACKS.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM













000
FXUS61 KOKX 212043
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
443 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN
CROSSES THE TRI-STATE THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...MEANWHILE A
COASTAL LOW TRACKS TO THE EAST...THEN NORTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE HIGH THEN DOMINATES THE WEATHER THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
700-500 HPA TROUGH APPROACHES THIS EVENING THEN BEGINS TO CROSS
THE TRI-STATE OVERNIGHT. RADAR TRENDS AND ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT ANY -SHRA AHEAD OF IT AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BE
FALLING APART AS THEY APPROACH THE CWA. THIS IS DUE TO LOSS OF
THERMODYNAMIC FORCING AFTER SUNSET AND BEST DYNAMICS STAYING TO
THE NW/N. SO FOR NOW HAVE CHANCE POPS OVER FAR W ORANGE COUNTY
TOWARDS MID EVENING...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER MOST OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE NORTHERN TIER. FOR NOW BELIEVE PROBABILITY OF
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS LESS THAN 15 PERCENT ACROSS SOUTHERN
ZONES...SO HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST THERE - HOWEVER A STRAY
SHOWER OR TWO/SPRINKLE CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT SUED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH VALUES
FORECAST TO BE 4 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL OUTSIDE OF THE NYC HEAT
ISLAND...AND NEAR NORMAL INSIDE THE HEAT ISLAND AND AREAS TO THE
N/W OF NYC DUE TO THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT.

ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG THIS EVENING OVER SE CT/THE
TWIN FORKS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WHILE LOCALLY DENSE FOG CANNOT
BE RULED OUT - AM CURRENTLY NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN ITS POTENTIAL
TO ISSUE ANY STATEMENTS.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC BEACHES THIS
EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
REGION REMAINS UNDER THE BASE OF 700-500 HPA TROUGH MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE A FEW SHORTWAVES ROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH - BUT GIVEN FORECAST DRYING IN THE LOW LEVELS WOULD ONLY
EXPECT AT MOST SOME CLOUDS AS THEY PASS. SO GOING WITH A MOSTLY
SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY MONDAY AND A MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR SKY
MONDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT.

FOR HIGHS MONDAY USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 875 HPA...EXCEPT
850 HPA OVER THE NW 1/4 OF THE CWA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE. EXPECT
READINGS TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR LOWS MONDAY NIGHT - WITH
READINGS FORECAST TO BE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF ORANGE COUNTY.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC BEACHES
MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE EAST COAST TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH SUNDAY.

AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WHILE
ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM CENTRAL CANADA. THE COMBINED
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND
THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH THEN
BUILDS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY AND REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY INTO
SUNDAY. INITIALLY THE AIR MASS WILL BE COOL TUESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A
WARMING TREND SETS UP FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE AIR
MASS MODIFIES. NEXT WEEKEND TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE REBOUNDED TO
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE SE THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT
WILL PASS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE ON MONDAY.

IFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN TONIGHT AT KISP/KGON UNTIL COLD
FROPA...THOUGH THEY MAY IMPROVE TO MVFR FOR A COUPLE OF HRS BEFORE
FROPA LATE TONIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...MVFR CIGS TO RETURN TOWARD EVENING FOR 2-3 HRS BEFORE
COLD FROPA. TIMING OF FROPA LOOKS TO BE 05Z KSWF...05Z-06Z NYC
METRO...AND 07Z-08Z FARTHER EAST...WITH QUICK IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

WNW WINDS...WEST OF 310 MAGNETIC...AT 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS AROUND
OR JUST OVER 20 KT...SHOULD DEVELOP BY 12Z MON. GUSTS COULD START
A COUPLE HRS SOONER THAN FCST...AND COULD BRIEFLY TOUCH 25 KT IN
NYC METRO BETWEEN 12Z-15Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MON THROUGH THU...
.MON AFTERNOON/NIGHT...VFR. NW WINDS G20KT INTO EARLY EVENING.
.TUE-THU...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS BUILD TO UP TO 5 FT ON THE WESTERN COASTAL OCEAN WATERS AND
UP TO 8 FT ON THE EASTERN COASTAL OCEAN WATERS BY LATE TONIGHT.
WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS ON MONDAY
- HAVE CONVERTED SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS TO A PLAIN SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY. SCA WIND GUSTS SHOULD LINGER OVER THE EASTERN TWO
COASTAL WATER ZONES INTO MONDAY EVENING AND SCA LEVEL SEAS THROUGH
THE NIGHT IN THOSE TWO ZONES...SO HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA FOR
ANZ-350 AND 353 THROUGH 10Z TUESDAY AS A RESULT.

ON THE REMAINDER OF THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE
CURRENTLY EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT ARE
FORECAST ON MONDAY - HOWEVER OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25KT CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ACROSS THE EXTREME OUTER
OCEAN WATERS EAST OF MORICHES INLET VERY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS
SEAS WILL BE SUBSIDING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WATERS TUESDAY INTO SATURDAY WIND AND
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LITTLE IF ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
THE PASSING OF A COASTAL LOW TO THE EAST AND THE PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT.

IT SHOULD THEN BE DRY FROM MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/MET
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...JMC/GOODMAN
MARINE...MALOIT/MET
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT







000
FXUS61 KOKX 212043
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
443 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN
CROSSES THE TRI-STATE THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...MEANWHILE A
COASTAL LOW TRACKS TO THE EAST...THEN NORTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE HIGH THEN DOMINATES THE WEATHER THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
700-500 HPA TROUGH APPROACHES THIS EVENING THEN BEGINS TO CROSS
THE TRI-STATE OVERNIGHT. RADAR TRENDS AND ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT ANY -SHRA AHEAD OF IT AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BE
FALLING APART AS THEY APPROACH THE CWA. THIS IS DUE TO LOSS OF
THERMODYNAMIC FORCING AFTER SUNSET AND BEST DYNAMICS STAYING TO
THE NW/N. SO FOR NOW HAVE CHANCE POPS OVER FAR W ORANGE COUNTY
TOWARDS MID EVENING...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER MOST OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE NORTHERN TIER. FOR NOW BELIEVE PROBABILITY OF
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS LESS THAN 15 PERCENT ACROSS SOUTHERN
ZONES...SO HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST THERE - HOWEVER A STRAY
SHOWER OR TWO/SPRINKLE CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT SUED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH VALUES
FORECAST TO BE 4 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL OUTSIDE OF THE NYC HEAT
ISLAND...AND NEAR NORMAL INSIDE THE HEAT ISLAND AND AREAS TO THE
N/W OF NYC DUE TO THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT.

ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG THIS EVENING OVER SE CT/THE
TWIN FORKS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WHILE LOCALLY DENSE FOG CANNOT
BE RULED OUT - AM CURRENTLY NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN ITS POTENTIAL
TO ISSUE ANY STATEMENTS.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC BEACHES THIS
EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
REGION REMAINS UNDER THE BASE OF 700-500 HPA TROUGH MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE A FEW SHORTWAVES ROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH - BUT GIVEN FORECAST DRYING IN THE LOW LEVELS WOULD ONLY
EXPECT AT MOST SOME CLOUDS AS THEY PASS. SO GOING WITH A MOSTLY
SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY MONDAY AND A MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR SKY
MONDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT.

FOR HIGHS MONDAY USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 875 HPA...EXCEPT
850 HPA OVER THE NW 1/4 OF THE CWA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE. EXPECT
READINGS TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR LOWS MONDAY NIGHT - WITH
READINGS FORECAST TO BE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF ORANGE COUNTY.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC BEACHES
MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE EAST COAST TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH SUNDAY.

AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WHILE
ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM CENTRAL CANADA. THE COMBINED
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND
THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH THEN
BUILDS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY AND REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY INTO
SUNDAY. INITIALLY THE AIR MASS WILL BE COOL TUESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A
WARMING TREND SETS UP FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE AIR
MASS MODIFIES. NEXT WEEKEND TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE REBOUNDED TO
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE SE THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT
WILL PASS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE ON MONDAY.

IFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN TONIGHT AT KISP/KGON UNTIL COLD
FROPA...THOUGH THEY MAY IMPROVE TO MVFR FOR A COUPLE OF HRS BEFORE
FROPA LATE TONIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...MVFR CIGS TO RETURN TOWARD EVENING FOR 2-3 HRS BEFORE
COLD FROPA. TIMING OF FROPA LOOKS TO BE 05Z KSWF...05Z-06Z NYC
METRO...AND 07Z-08Z FARTHER EAST...WITH QUICK IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

WNW WINDS...WEST OF 310 MAGNETIC...AT 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS AROUND
OR JUST OVER 20 KT...SHOULD DEVELOP BY 12Z MON. GUSTS COULD START
A COUPLE HRS SOONER THAN FCST...AND COULD BRIEFLY TOUCH 25 KT IN
NYC METRO BETWEEN 12Z-15Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MON THROUGH THU...
.MON AFTERNOON/NIGHT...VFR. NW WINDS G20KT INTO EARLY EVENING.
.TUE-THU...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS BUILD TO UP TO 5 FT ON THE WESTERN COASTAL OCEAN WATERS AND
UP TO 8 FT ON THE EASTERN COASTAL OCEAN WATERS BY LATE TONIGHT.
WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS ON MONDAY
- HAVE CONVERTED SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS TO A PLAIN SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY. SCA WIND GUSTS SHOULD LINGER OVER THE EASTERN TWO
COASTAL WATER ZONES INTO MONDAY EVENING AND SCA LEVEL SEAS THROUGH
THE NIGHT IN THOSE TWO ZONES...SO HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA FOR
ANZ-350 AND 353 THROUGH 10Z TUESDAY AS A RESULT.

ON THE REMAINDER OF THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE
CURRENTLY EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT ARE
FORECAST ON MONDAY - HOWEVER OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25KT CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ACROSS THE EXTREME OUTER
OCEAN WATERS EAST OF MORICHES INLET VERY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS
SEAS WILL BE SUBSIDING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WATERS TUESDAY INTO SATURDAY WIND AND
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LITTLE IF ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
THE PASSING OF A COASTAL LOW TO THE EAST AND THE PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT.

IT SHOULD THEN BE DRY FROM MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/MET
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...JMC/GOODMAN
MARINE...MALOIT/MET
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT







000
FXUS61 KOKX 212043
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
443 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN
CROSSES THE TRI-STATE THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...MEANWHILE A
COASTAL LOW TRACKS TO THE EAST...THEN NORTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE HIGH THEN DOMINATES THE WEATHER THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
700-500 HPA TROUGH APPROACHES THIS EVENING THEN BEGINS TO CROSS
THE TRI-STATE OVERNIGHT. RADAR TRENDS AND ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT ANY -SHRA AHEAD OF IT AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BE
FALLING APART AS THEY APPROACH THE CWA. THIS IS DUE TO LOSS OF
THERMODYNAMIC FORCING AFTER SUNSET AND BEST DYNAMICS STAYING TO
THE NW/N. SO FOR NOW HAVE CHANCE POPS OVER FAR W ORANGE COUNTY
TOWARDS MID EVENING...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER MOST OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE NORTHERN TIER. FOR NOW BELIEVE PROBABILITY OF
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS LESS THAN 15 PERCENT ACROSS SOUTHERN
ZONES...SO HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST THERE - HOWEVER A STRAY
SHOWER OR TWO/SPRINKLE CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT SUED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH VALUES
FORECAST TO BE 4 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL OUTSIDE OF THE NYC HEAT
ISLAND...AND NEAR NORMAL INSIDE THE HEAT ISLAND AND AREAS TO THE
N/W OF NYC DUE TO THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT.

ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG THIS EVENING OVER SE CT/THE
TWIN FORKS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WHILE LOCALLY DENSE FOG CANNOT
BE RULED OUT - AM CURRENTLY NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN ITS POTENTIAL
TO ISSUE ANY STATEMENTS.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC BEACHES THIS
EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
REGION REMAINS UNDER THE BASE OF 700-500 HPA TROUGH MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE A FEW SHORTWAVES ROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH - BUT GIVEN FORECAST DRYING IN THE LOW LEVELS WOULD ONLY
EXPECT AT MOST SOME CLOUDS AS THEY PASS. SO GOING WITH A MOSTLY
SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY MONDAY AND A MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR SKY
MONDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT.

FOR HIGHS MONDAY USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 875 HPA...EXCEPT
850 HPA OVER THE NW 1/4 OF THE CWA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE. EXPECT
READINGS TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR LOWS MONDAY NIGHT - WITH
READINGS FORECAST TO BE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF ORANGE COUNTY.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC BEACHES
MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE EAST COAST TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH SUNDAY.

AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WHILE
ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM CENTRAL CANADA. THE COMBINED
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND
THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH THEN
BUILDS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY AND REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY INTO
SUNDAY. INITIALLY THE AIR MASS WILL BE COOL TUESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A
WARMING TREND SETS UP FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE AIR
MASS MODIFIES. NEXT WEEKEND TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE REBOUNDED TO
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE SE THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT
WILL PASS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE ON MONDAY.

IFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN TONIGHT AT KISP/KGON UNTIL COLD
FROPA...THOUGH THEY MAY IMPROVE TO MVFR FOR A COUPLE OF HRS BEFORE
FROPA LATE TONIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...MVFR CIGS TO RETURN TOWARD EVENING FOR 2-3 HRS BEFORE
COLD FROPA. TIMING OF FROPA LOOKS TO BE 05Z KSWF...05Z-06Z NYC
METRO...AND 07Z-08Z FARTHER EAST...WITH QUICK IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

WNW WINDS...WEST OF 310 MAGNETIC...AT 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS AROUND
OR JUST OVER 20 KT...SHOULD DEVELOP BY 12Z MON. GUSTS COULD START
A COUPLE HRS SOONER THAN FCST...AND COULD BRIEFLY TOUCH 25 KT IN
NYC METRO BETWEEN 12Z-15Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MON THROUGH THU...
.MON AFTERNOON/NIGHT...VFR. NW WINDS G20KT INTO EARLY EVENING.
.TUE-THU...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS BUILD TO UP TO 5 FT ON THE WESTERN COASTAL OCEAN WATERS AND
UP TO 8 FT ON THE EASTERN COASTAL OCEAN WATERS BY LATE TONIGHT.
WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS ON MONDAY
- HAVE CONVERTED SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS TO A PLAIN SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY. SCA WIND GUSTS SHOULD LINGER OVER THE EASTERN TWO
COASTAL WATER ZONES INTO MONDAY EVENING AND SCA LEVEL SEAS THROUGH
THE NIGHT IN THOSE TWO ZONES...SO HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA FOR
ANZ-350 AND 353 THROUGH 10Z TUESDAY AS A RESULT.

ON THE REMAINDER OF THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE
CURRENTLY EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT ARE
FORECAST ON MONDAY - HOWEVER OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25KT CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ACROSS THE EXTREME OUTER
OCEAN WATERS EAST OF MORICHES INLET VERY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS
SEAS WILL BE SUBSIDING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WATERS TUESDAY INTO SATURDAY WIND AND
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LITTLE IF ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
THE PASSING OF A COASTAL LOW TO THE EAST AND THE PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT.

IT SHOULD THEN BE DRY FROM MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/MET
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...JMC/GOODMAN
MARINE...MALOIT/MET
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT







000
FXUS61 KOKX 212043
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
443 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN
CROSSES THE TRI-STATE THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...MEANWHILE A
COASTAL LOW TRACKS TO THE EAST...THEN NORTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE HIGH THEN DOMINATES THE WEATHER THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
700-500 HPA TROUGH APPROACHES THIS EVENING THEN BEGINS TO CROSS
THE TRI-STATE OVERNIGHT. RADAR TRENDS AND ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT ANY -SHRA AHEAD OF IT AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BE
FALLING APART AS THEY APPROACH THE CWA. THIS IS DUE TO LOSS OF
THERMODYNAMIC FORCING AFTER SUNSET AND BEST DYNAMICS STAYING TO
THE NW/N. SO FOR NOW HAVE CHANCE POPS OVER FAR W ORANGE COUNTY
TOWARDS MID EVENING...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER MOST OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE NORTHERN TIER. FOR NOW BELIEVE PROBABILITY OF
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS LESS THAN 15 PERCENT ACROSS SOUTHERN
ZONES...SO HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST THERE - HOWEVER A STRAY
SHOWER OR TWO/SPRINKLE CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT SUED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH VALUES
FORECAST TO BE 4 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL OUTSIDE OF THE NYC HEAT
ISLAND...AND NEAR NORMAL INSIDE THE HEAT ISLAND AND AREAS TO THE
N/W OF NYC DUE TO THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT.

ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG THIS EVENING OVER SE CT/THE
TWIN FORKS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WHILE LOCALLY DENSE FOG CANNOT
BE RULED OUT - AM CURRENTLY NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN ITS POTENTIAL
TO ISSUE ANY STATEMENTS.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC BEACHES THIS
EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
REGION REMAINS UNDER THE BASE OF 700-500 HPA TROUGH MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE A FEW SHORTWAVES ROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH - BUT GIVEN FORECAST DRYING IN THE LOW LEVELS WOULD ONLY
EXPECT AT MOST SOME CLOUDS AS THEY PASS. SO GOING WITH A MOSTLY
SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY MONDAY AND A MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR SKY
MONDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT.

FOR HIGHS MONDAY USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 875 HPA...EXCEPT
850 HPA OVER THE NW 1/4 OF THE CWA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE. EXPECT
READINGS TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR LOWS MONDAY NIGHT - WITH
READINGS FORECAST TO BE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF ORANGE COUNTY.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC BEACHES
MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE EAST COAST TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH SUNDAY.

AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WHILE
ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM CENTRAL CANADA. THE COMBINED
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND
THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH THEN
BUILDS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY AND REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY INTO
SUNDAY. INITIALLY THE AIR MASS WILL BE COOL TUESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A
WARMING TREND SETS UP FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE AIR
MASS MODIFIES. NEXT WEEKEND TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE REBOUNDED TO
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE SE THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT
WILL PASS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE ON MONDAY.

IFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN TONIGHT AT KISP/KGON UNTIL COLD
FROPA...THOUGH THEY MAY IMPROVE TO MVFR FOR A COUPLE OF HRS BEFORE
FROPA LATE TONIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...MVFR CIGS TO RETURN TOWARD EVENING FOR 2-3 HRS BEFORE
COLD FROPA. TIMING OF FROPA LOOKS TO BE 05Z KSWF...05Z-06Z NYC
METRO...AND 07Z-08Z FARTHER EAST...WITH QUICK IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

WNW WINDS...WEST OF 310 MAGNETIC...AT 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS AROUND
OR JUST OVER 20 KT...SHOULD DEVELOP BY 12Z MON. GUSTS COULD START
A COUPLE HRS SOONER THAN FCST...AND COULD BRIEFLY TOUCH 25 KT IN
NYC METRO BETWEEN 12Z-15Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MON THROUGH THU...
.MON AFTERNOON/NIGHT...VFR. NW WINDS G20KT INTO EARLY EVENING.
.TUE-THU...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS BUILD TO UP TO 5 FT ON THE WESTERN COASTAL OCEAN WATERS AND
UP TO 8 FT ON THE EASTERN COASTAL OCEAN WATERS BY LATE TONIGHT.
WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS ON MONDAY
- HAVE CONVERTED SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS TO A PLAIN SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY. SCA WIND GUSTS SHOULD LINGER OVER THE EASTERN TWO
COASTAL WATER ZONES INTO MONDAY EVENING AND SCA LEVEL SEAS THROUGH
THE NIGHT IN THOSE TWO ZONES...SO HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA FOR
ANZ-350 AND 353 THROUGH 10Z TUESDAY AS A RESULT.

ON THE REMAINDER OF THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE
CURRENTLY EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT ARE
FORECAST ON MONDAY - HOWEVER OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25KT CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ACROSS THE EXTREME OUTER
OCEAN WATERS EAST OF MORICHES INLET VERY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS
SEAS WILL BE SUBSIDING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WATERS TUESDAY INTO SATURDAY WIND AND
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LITTLE IF ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
THE PASSING OF A COASTAL LOW TO THE EAST AND THE PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT.

IT SHOULD THEN BE DRY FROM MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/MET
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...JMC/GOODMAN
MARINE...MALOIT/MET
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT







000
FXUS61 KOKX 212024
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
424 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN
CROSSES THE TRI-STATE THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...MEANWHILE A
COASTAL LOW TRACKS TO THE EAST...THEN NORTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE HIGH THEN DOMINATES THE WEATHER THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
700-500 HPA TROUGH APPROACHES THIS EVENING THEN BEGINS TO CROSS
THE TRI-STATE OVERNIGHT. RADAR TRENDS AND ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT ANY -SHRA AHEAD OF IT AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BE
FALLING APART AS THEY APPROACH THE CWA. THIS IS DUE TO LOSS OF
THERMODYNAMIC FORCING AFTER SUNSET AND BEST DYNAMICS STAYING TO
THE NW/N. SO FOR NOW HAVE CHANCE POPS OVER FAR W ORANGE COUNTY
TOWARDS MID EVENING...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER MOST OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE NORTHERN TIER. FOR NOW BELIEVE PROBABILITY OF
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS LESS THAN 15 PERCENT ACROSS SOUTHERN
ZONES...SO HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST THERE - HOWEVER A STRAY
SHOWER OR TWO/SPRINKLE CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT SUED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH VALUES
FORECAST TO BE 4 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL OUTSIDE OF THE NYC HEAT
ISLAND...AND NEAR NORMAL INSIDE THE HEAT ISLAND AND AREAS TO THE
N/W OF NYC DUE TO THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT.

ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG THIS EVENING OVER SE CT/THE
TWIN FORKS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WHILE LOCALLY DENSE FOG CANNOT
BE RULED OUT - AM CURRENTLY NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN ITS POTENTIAL
TO ISSUE ANY STATEMENTS.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC BEACHES THIS
EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
REGION REMAINS UNDER THE BASE OF 700-500 HPA TROUGH MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE A FEW SHORTWAVES ROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH - BUT GIVEN FORECAST DRYING IN THE LOW LEVELS WOULD ONLY
EXPECT AT MOST SOME CLOUDS AS THEY PASS. SO GOING WITH A MOSTLY
SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY MONDAY AND A MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR SKY
MONDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT.

FOR HIGHS MONDAY USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 875 HPA...EXCEPT
850 HPA OVER THE NW 1/4 OF THE CWA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE. EXPECT
READINGS TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR LOWS MONDAY NIGHT - WITH
READINGS FORECAST TO BE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF ORANGE COUNTY.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC BEACHES
MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE EAST COAST TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH SUNDAY.

AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WHILE
ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM CENTRAL CANADA. THE COMBINED
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND
THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH THEN
BUILDS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY AND REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY INTO
SUNDAY. INITIALLY THE AIR MASS WILL BE COOL TUESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A
WARMING TREND SETS UP FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE AIR
MASS MODIFIES. NEXT WEEKEND TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE REBOUNDED TO
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE SE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THIS EVENING AND PASS THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ON MONDAY.

IFR CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH ONSHORE FLOW JUST AHEAD OF THE OFFSHORE
LOW HAVE MOVED BACK IN AT KISP/KGON...AND ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN
TONIGHT UNTIL COLD FROPA...THOUGH THEY MAY IMPROVE TO MVFR FOR A
COUPLE OF HRS BEFORE FROPA LATE TONIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...MVFR CIGS ELSEWHERE MAY BRIEFLY IMPROVE TO VFR LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WITH NIGHTTIME COOLING EXPECT AT LEAST TEMPO
MVFR CIGS TO RETURN TOWARD EVENING FOR 2-3 HRS BEFORE COLD FROPA.
TIMING OF FROPA LOOKS TO BE 05Z KSWF...05Z-06Z NYC METRO...AND
07Z-08Z FARTHER EAST...WITH QUICK IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

WNW WINDS...WEST OF 310 MAGNETIC...AT 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS AROUND
OR JUST OVER 20 KT...SHOULD DEVELOP BY 12Z MON. GUSTS COULD START
A COUPLE HRS SOONER THAN FCST...AND COULD BRIEFLY TOUCH 25 KT IN
NYC METRO BETWEEN 12Z-15Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MON THROUGH THU...
.MON AFTERNOON/NIGHT...VFR. NW WINDS G20KT INTO EARLY EVENING.
.TUE-THU...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS BUILD TO UP TO 5 FT ON THE WESTERN COASTAL OCEAN WATERS AND
UP TO 8 FT ON THE EASTERN COASTAL OCEAN WATERS BY LATE TONIGHT.
WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS ON MONDAY
- HAVE CONVERTED SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS TO A PLAIN SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY. SCA WIND GUSTS SHOULD LINGER OVER THE EASTERN TWO
COASTAL WATER ZONES INTO MONDAY EVENING AND SCA LEVEL SEAS THROUGH
THE NIGHT IN THOSE TWO ZONES...SO HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA FOR
ANZ-350 AND 353 THROUGH 10Z TUESDAY AS A RESULT.

ON THE REMAINDER OF THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE
CURRENTLY EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT ARE
FORECAST ON MONDAY - HOWEVER OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25KT CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ACROSS THE EXTREME OUTER
OCEAN WATERS EAST OF MORICHES INLET VERY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS
SEAS WILL BE SUBSIDING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WATERS TUESDAY INTO SATURDAY WIND AND
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LITTLE IF ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
THE PASSING OF A COASTAL LOW TO THE EAST AND THE PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT.

IT SHOULD THEN BE DRY FROM MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/MET
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...GOODMAN
MARINE...MALOIT/MET
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT








000
FXUS61 KOKX 212024
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
424 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN
CROSSES THE TRI-STATE THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...MEANWHILE A
COASTAL LOW TRACKS TO THE EAST...THEN NORTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE HIGH THEN DOMINATES THE WEATHER THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
700-500 HPA TROUGH APPROACHES THIS EVENING THEN BEGINS TO CROSS
THE TRI-STATE OVERNIGHT. RADAR TRENDS AND ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT ANY -SHRA AHEAD OF IT AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BE
FALLING APART AS THEY APPROACH THE CWA. THIS IS DUE TO LOSS OF
THERMODYNAMIC FORCING AFTER SUNSET AND BEST DYNAMICS STAYING TO
THE NW/N. SO FOR NOW HAVE CHANCE POPS OVER FAR W ORANGE COUNTY
TOWARDS MID EVENING...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER MOST OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE NORTHERN TIER. FOR NOW BELIEVE PROBABILITY OF
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS LESS THAN 15 PERCENT ACROSS SOUTHERN
ZONES...SO HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST THERE - HOWEVER A STRAY
SHOWER OR TWO/SPRINKLE CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT SUED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH VALUES
FORECAST TO BE 4 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL OUTSIDE OF THE NYC HEAT
ISLAND...AND NEAR NORMAL INSIDE THE HEAT ISLAND AND AREAS TO THE
N/W OF NYC DUE TO THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT.

ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG THIS EVENING OVER SE CT/THE
TWIN FORKS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WHILE LOCALLY DENSE FOG CANNOT
BE RULED OUT - AM CURRENTLY NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN ITS POTENTIAL
TO ISSUE ANY STATEMENTS.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC BEACHES THIS
EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
REGION REMAINS UNDER THE BASE OF 700-500 HPA TROUGH MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE A FEW SHORTWAVES ROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH - BUT GIVEN FORECAST DRYING IN THE LOW LEVELS WOULD ONLY
EXPECT AT MOST SOME CLOUDS AS THEY PASS. SO GOING WITH A MOSTLY
SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY MONDAY AND A MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR SKY
MONDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT.

FOR HIGHS MONDAY USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 875 HPA...EXCEPT
850 HPA OVER THE NW 1/4 OF THE CWA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE. EXPECT
READINGS TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR LOWS MONDAY NIGHT - WITH
READINGS FORECAST TO BE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF ORANGE COUNTY.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC BEACHES
MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE EAST COAST TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH SUNDAY.

AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WHILE
ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM CENTRAL CANADA. THE COMBINED
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND
THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH THEN
BUILDS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY AND REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY INTO
SUNDAY. INITIALLY THE AIR MASS WILL BE COOL TUESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A
WARMING TREND SETS UP FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE AIR
MASS MODIFIES. NEXT WEEKEND TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE REBOUNDED TO
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE SE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THIS EVENING AND PASS THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ON MONDAY.

IFR CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH ONSHORE FLOW JUST AHEAD OF THE OFFSHORE
LOW HAVE MOVED BACK IN AT KISP/KGON...AND ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN
TONIGHT UNTIL COLD FROPA...THOUGH THEY MAY IMPROVE TO MVFR FOR A
COUPLE OF HRS BEFORE FROPA LATE TONIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...MVFR CIGS ELSEWHERE MAY BRIEFLY IMPROVE TO VFR LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WITH NIGHTTIME COOLING EXPECT AT LEAST TEMPO
MVFR CIGS TO RETURN TOWARD EVENING FOR 2-3 HRS BEFORE COLD FROPA.
TIMING OF FROPA LOOKS TO BE 05Z KSWF...05Z-06Z NYC METRO...AND
07Z-08Z FARTHER EAST...WITH QUICK IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

WNW WINDS...WEST OF 310 MAGNETIC...AT 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS AROUND
OR JUST OVER 20 KT...SHOULD DEVELOP BY 12Z MON. GUSTS COULD START
A COUPLE HRS SOONER THAN FCST...AND COULD BRIEFLY TOUCH 25 KT IN
NYC METRO BETWEEN 12Z-15Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MON THROUGH THU...
.MON AFTERNOON/NIGHT...VFR. NW WINDS G20KT INTO EARLY EVENING.
.TUE-THU...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS BUILD TO UP TO 5 FT ON THE WESTERN COASTAL OCEAN WATERS AND
UP TO 8 FT ON THE EASTERN COASTAL OCEAN WATERS BY LATE TONIGHT.
WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS ON MONDAY
- HAVE CONVERTED SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS TO A PLAIN SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY. SCA WIND GUSTS SHOULD LINGER OVER THE EASTERN TWO
COASTAL WATER ZONES INTO MONDAY EVENING AND SCA LEVEL SEAS THROUGH
THE NIGHT IN THOSE TWO ZONES...SO HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA FOR
ANZ-350 AND 353 THROUGH 10Z TUESDAY AS A RESULT.

ON THE REMAINDER OF THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE
CURRENTLY EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT ARE
FORECAST ON MONDAY - HOWEVER OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25KT CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ACROSS THE EXTREME OUTER
OCEAN WATERS EAST OF MORICHES INLET VERY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS
SEAS WILL BE SUBSIDING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WATERS TUESDAY INTO SATURDAY WIND AND
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LITTLE IF ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
THE PASSING OF A COASTAL LOW TO THE EAST AND THE PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT.

IT SHOULD THEN BE DRY FROM MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/MET
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...GOODMAN
MARINE...MALOIT/MET
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT







000
FXUS61 KBOX 212006
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
406 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN WILL AFFECT THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND
COAST THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...DRIER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER IS
ON TAP FOR MONDAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNNY DAYS AND CLEAR NIGHTS TO THE
REGION FROM TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH A WARMING TREND. WE
COULD APPROACH RECORD WARMTH ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...

***A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN EXPECTED THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
   SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST***

MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITH DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS ALLOWED
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUED TO AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  WE SHOULD SEE THIS ACTIVITY DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST WHICH WILL BE TRACKING NORTHEAST AND PASSING NEAR THE
BENCHMARK THIS EVENING. THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW FAR NORTHWEST
THE RAIN SHIELD WILL GET. LATEST NEAR TERM GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
TRENDING FURTHER NORTHWEST. THEREFORE...EXPECT A PERIOD OF STEADY
RAIN ACROSS THE CAPE/ISLANDS AND PROBABLY FURTHER NORTHWEST INTO
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MA/RHODE ISLAND FOR AT LEAST A TIME. IN
FACT...LATEST HRRR SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MA COAST INCLUDING BOSTON. NOT SURE IF
IT WILL GET THAT FAR NORTHWEST...BUT ITS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.
REGARDLESS...THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS NANTUCKET...
WHERE BETWEEN 0.50 TO PERHAPS UP TO 1 INCH OF RAIN MAY OCCUR.
THE RAIN MAY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING ACROSS THE CAPE
AND ISLANDS...BUT SHOULD WIND DOWN NEAR OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT.

MEANWHILE...ONCE THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SCATTERED SHOWERS WIND DOWN EARLY THIS EVENING...THE REST OF THE
REGION WILL MAINLY BE DRY TONIGHT.  HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING OUR WESTERN ZONES TOWARD MIDNIGHT.  WHILE SHEAR IS QUITE
IMPRESSIVE...VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY WILL BE LEFT.  SO WHILE WE MAY
SEE A FEW SPOT SHOWERS AFFECT OUR WESTERN ZONES...THEY WILL BE IN
THE PROCESS OF WEAKENING AND NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN THAT. LOW
TEMPS WILL ONLY BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 50S AND THE LOWER 60S BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

MONDAY...

A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL WORK INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. WHILE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED EARLY...MAY SEE A SCATTERED TO BROKEN DECK OF STRATO-
CUMULUS CLOUDS WORK INTO AT LEAST THE INTERIOR BY AFTERNOON. HIGHS
SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE INTERIOR...BUT STILL WILL
REACH BETWEEN 70 AND 75 ALONG HE COASTAL PLAIN. GUSTY WEST WINDS
OF 20 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED AS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWING VERY GOOD
MIXING.

HIGH SURF...GIVEN LARGE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SWELL FROM DEPARTING
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAVE ISSUED A HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR THE
SOUTH COAST ON MONDAY.  WE ISSUE HIGH SURF PRODUCTS THROUGH THE END
OF SEPTEMBER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

MONDAY NIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.  THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR DIMINISHING WINDS AND SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR.  LOOKS LIKE
A PRETTY GOOD NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING...WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT
IN THE UPPER 30S TO THE MIDDLE 40S IN MOST LOCALES.  THE URBAN HEAT
ISLAND OF BOSTON WILL BE THE MILD SPOT WITH THE LOW BOTTOMING OUT
NEAR 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD
* NEAR RECORD WARMTH POSSIBLE NEXT SATURDAY

OVERVIEW...
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST MODEL GUIDANCE THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEPARTS THE NORTHEAST STATES ON
TUESDAY. THEN...MUCH ADO ABOUT BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE...BOTH AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE
IS VERY STRONG AS IT IS PARKED FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND BY NEXT WEEKEND.

DETAILS... TUESDAY WILL FEATURE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXCEPT ONLY
PARTLY SUNNY NW MA AND SW NH CLOSER TO SOME HIGHER 925 MB
HUMIDITY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SUNNY DAYS AND CLEAR NIGHTS THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND. HAVE GONE A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN MODEL CONSENSUS
TEMPERATURE MINIMUMS THROUGH THU DUE TO EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING EXPECTED ALONG WITH VERY DRY DEWPOINTS. AS THE CENTER OF
THE UPPER HIGH APPROACHES...AM EXPECTING A DRAMATIC WARMUP FRI
AND ESPECIALLY SAT. THE 12Z ECMWF RUN IS EVEN WARMER THAN THE
PREVIOUS RUN WITH 925 MB TEMPERATURES WARMING FROM +12C TUE...TO
+17C FRI... TO +19C OR +20C ON SAT... WITH WARM TEMPERATURES
LIKELY CONTINUING INTO EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK. HAVE GONE SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE MODEL CONSENSUS MAXIMUMS FOR NEXT SATURDAY...WITH
HIGHS SOARING TO 80 TO 85 ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
RECORDS FOR THAT DAY INCLUDE 85 AT WORCESTER AND 86 AT BOTH BOSTON
AND PROVIDENCE.

LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE PERIOD...SO ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE
DRY WE ARE NOT EXPECTING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. LOCAL SEA BREEZES
WILL OCCUR...ESPECIALLY FRI THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT THE GFS HAS A HINT OF A POTENTIAL BACKDOOR FRONT/TROUGH
OVER NORTHEAST MA ON SAT BUT THIS WAS NOT ENOUGH TO DETRACT FROM
THE VERY WARM FORECAST...AS YET.

AN UPPER LOW OVER VIRGINIA AND AN ASSOCIATED INVERTED TROUGH IS
LIKELY TO BE CAUSING PRECIPITATION IN THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
MID TO LATE IN THE WORK WEEK THAT TRIES TO WORK ITS WAY NORTHWARD.
THERE IS EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THIS AREA ONLY GETS AS
FAR NORTHWARD AS OFF THE NJ COAST BY FRI...BEFORE RETREATING
SOUTHWARD AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE
NORTHEAST ON THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY MVFR
CIGS WERE DOMINATING AT MID AFTERNOON...BUT SOME IFR CONDITIONS WERE
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET.  MAY SEE CONDITIONS LOWER
TO IFR IN SOME LOCALES NEAR THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH
EARLY EVENING.  REST OF THE REGION SHOULD MAINLY BE MVFR.

TONIGHT...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  GUIDANCE SEEMS A BIT TOO
PESSIMISTIC ON CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES GIVEN WINDS SHIFTING TO MORE
OF A WESTERLY DIRECTION LATER THIS EVENING...ALBEIT LIGHT. PATCHES
OF IFR CONDITIONS STILL LIKELY THOUGH...ESPECIALLY IF ANY PATCHY
FOG CAN DEVELOP. WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS MOST LIKELY NEAR THE
FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST. IN ADDITION...A PERIOD OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO AFFECT AT LEAST THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST
THIS EVENING. THE RAIN WILL LIKELY REACH INTO RHODE ISLAND/INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST MA FOR A SHORT TIME AND PERHAPS EVEN INTO NORTHEAST MA.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.
JUST A LOW RISK FOR BRIEF MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE INTERIOR ON MONDAY
AS A DECK OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS MOVES INTO THE REGION.
OTHERWISE...GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS
EXPECTED DURING THE DAY MONDAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE TONIGHT WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON
MONDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE TONIGHT WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON
MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TUE...VFR.
WED...VFR
THU...VFR.
FRI...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LOW PRESSURE PASSING NEAR
THE BENCHMARK WILL RESULT IN ENOUGH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SWELL FOR
SCA SEAS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS AND WESTERN SOUNDS.
SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD BECOME SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS
LATER TONIGHT. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN WATERS.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  SCA SEAS
ON THE WESTERN SOUNDS AND OUTER-WATERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...A PERIOD OF WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS IS POSSIBLE FOR A TIME ON MONDAY.
THEREFORE...IT IS POSSIBLE WE MAY NEED TO EXPAND SCA FOR A TIME
DURING THE DAY MONDAY INTO SOME OF THE NEARSHORE SOUNDS AND
WATERS. CONFIDENCE NOT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH TO DO THIS RIGHT NOW...
SO WILL DEFER TO THE NEXT SHIFT.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

TUE AND WED...SEAS NEAR 5 FT MAY LINGER AT TIMES TUE AND WED OVER
THE WATERS S AND E OF NANTUCKET. OTHERWISE WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD
BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. A NORTHEAST WIND GRADIENT
WILL INCREASE OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS TUE NIGHT INTO WED
AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BUT
GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY REACH 20 KT.

WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI...QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING THE WEATHER. WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 5 PM EDT MONDAY FOR MAZ020>024.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 5 PM EDT MONDAY FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 4 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/FIELD
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...FIELD
AVIATION...FRANK/FIELD
MARINE...FRANK/FIELD




000
FXUS61 KBOX 212006
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
406 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN WILL AFFECT THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND
COAST THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...DRIER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER IS
ON TAP FOR MONDAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNNY DAYS AND CLEAR NIGHTS TO THE
REGION FROM TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH A WARMING TREND. WE
COULD APPROACH RECORD WARMTH ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...

***A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN EXPECTED THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
   SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST***

MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITH DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS ALLOWED
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUED TO AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  WE SHOULD SEE THIS ACTIVITY DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST WHICH WILL BE TRACKING NORTHEAST AND PASSING NEAR THE
BENCHMARK THIS EVENING. THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW FAR NORTHWEST
THE RAIN SHIELD WILL GET. LATEST NEAR TERM GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
TRENDING FURTHER NORTHWEST. THEREFORE...EXPECT A PERIOD OF STEADY
RAIN ACROSS THE CAPE/ISLANDS AND PROBABLY FURTHER NORTHWEST INTO
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MA/RHODE ISLAND FOR AT LEAST A TIME. IN
FACT...LATEST HRRR SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MA COAST INCLUDING BOSTON. NOT SURE IF
IT WILL GET THAT FAR NORTHWEST...BUT ITS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.
REGARDLESS...THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS NANTUCKET...
WHERE BETWEEN 0.50 TO PERHAPS UP TO 1 INCH OF RAIN MAY OCCUR.
THE RAIN MAY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING ACROSS THE CAPE
AND ISLANDS...BUT SHOULD WIND DOWN NEAR OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT.

MEANWHILE...ONCE THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SCATTERED SHOWERS WIND DOWN EARLY THIS EVENING...THE REST OF THE
REGION WILL MAINLY BE DRY TONIGHT.  HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING OUR WESTERN ZONES TOWARD MIDNIGHT.  WHILE SHEAR IS QUITE
IMPRESSIVE...VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY WILL BE LEFT.  SO WHILE WE MAY
SEE A FEW SPOT SHOWERS AFFECT OUR WESTERN ZONES...THEY WILL BE IN
THE PROCESS OF WEAKENING AND NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN THAT. LOW
TEMPS WILL ONLY BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 50S AND THE LOWER 60S BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

MONDAY...

A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL WORK INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. WHILE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED EARLY...MAY SEE A SCATTERED TO BROKEN DECK OF STRATO-
CUMULUS CLOUDS WORK INTO AT LEAST THE INTERIOR BY AFTERNOON. HIGHS
SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE INTERIOR...BUT STILL WILL
REACH BETWEEN 70 AND 75 ALONG HE COASTAL PLAIN. GUSTY WEST WINDS
OF 20 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED AS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWING VERY GOOD
MIXING.

HIGH SURF...GIVEN LARGE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SWELL FROM DEPARTING
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAVE ISSUED A HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR THE
SOUTH COAST ON MONDAY.  WE ISSUE HIGH SURF PRODUCTS THROUGH THE END
OF SEPTEMBER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

MONDAY NIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.  THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR DIMINISHING WINDS AND SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR.  LOOKS LIKE
A PRETTY GOOD NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING...WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT
IN THE UPPER 30S TO THE MIDDLE 40S IN MOST LOCALES.  THE URBAN HEAT
ISLAND OF BOSTON WILL BE THE MILD SPOT WITH THE LOW BOTTOMING OUT
NEAR 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD
* NEAR RECORD WARMTH POSSIBLE NEXT SATURDAY

OVERVIEW...
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST MODEL GUIDANCE THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEPARTS THE NORTHEAST STATES ON
TUESDAY. THEN...MUCH ADO ABOUT BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE...BOTH AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE
IS VERY STRONG AS IT IS PARKED FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND BY NEXT WEEKEND.

DETAILS... TUESDAY WILL FEATURE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXCEPT ONLY
PARTLY SUNNY NW MA AND SW NH CLOSER TO SOME HIGHER 925 MB
HUMIDITY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SUNNY DAYS AND CLEAR NIGHTS THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND. HAVE GONE A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN MODEL CONSENSUS
TEMPERATURE MINIMUMS THROUGH THU DUE TO EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING EXPECTED ALONG WITH VERY DRY DEWPOINTS. AS THE CENTER OF
THE UPPER HIGH APPROACHES...AM EXPECTING A DRAMATIC WARMUP FRI
AND ESPECIALLY SAT. THE 12Z ECMWF RUN IS EVEN WARMER THAN THE
PREVIOUS RUN WITH 925 MB TEMPERATURES WARMING FROM +12C TUE...TO
+17C FRI... TO +19C OR +20C ON SAT... WITH WARM TEMPERATURES
LIKELY CONTINUING INTO EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK. HAVE GONE SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE MODEL CONSENSUS MAXIMUMS FOR NEXT SATURDAY...WITH
HIGHS SOARING TO 80 TO 85 ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
RECORDS FOR THAT DAY INCLUDE 85 AT WORCESTER AND 86 AT BOTH BOSTON
AND PROVIDENCE.

LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE PERIOD...SO ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE
DRY WE ARE NOT EXPECTING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. LOCAL SEA BREEZES
WILL OCCUR...ESPECIALLY FRI THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT THE GFS HAS A HINT OF A POTENTIAL BACKDOOR FRONT/TROUGH
OVER NORTHEAST MA ON SAT BUT THIS WAS NOT ENOUGH TO DETRACT FROM
THE VERY WARM FORECAST...AS YET.

AN UPPER LOW OVER VIRGINIA AND AN ASSOCIATED INVERTED TROUGH IS
LIKELY TO BE CAUSING PRECIPITATION IN THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
MID TO LATE IN THE WORK WEEK THAT TRIES TO WORK ITS WAY NORTHWARD.
THERE IS EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THIS AREA ONLY GETS AS
FAR NORTHWARD AS OFF THE NJ COAST BY FRI...BEFORE RETREATING
SOUTHWARD AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE
NORTHEAST ON THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY MVFR
CIGS WERE DOMINATING AT MID AFTERNOON...BUT SOME IFR CONDITIONS WERE
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET.  MAY SEE CONDITIONS LOWER
TO IFR IN SOME LOCALES NEAR THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH
EARLY EVENING.  REST OF THE REGION SHOULD MAINLY BE MVFR.

TONIGHT...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  GUIDANCE SEEMS A BIT TOO
PESSIMISTIC ON CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES GIVEN WINDS SHIFTING TO MORE
OF A WESTERLY DIRECTION LATER THIS EVENING...ALBEIT LIGHT. PATCHES
OF IFR CONDITIONS STILL LIKELY THOUGH...ESPECIALLY IF ANY PATCHY
FOG CAN DEVELOP. WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS MOST LIKELY NEAR THE
FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST. IN ADDITION...A PERIOD OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO AFFECT AT LEAST THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST
THIS EVENING. THE RAIN WILL LIKELY REACH INTO RHODE ISLAND/INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST MA FOR A SHORT TIME AND PERHAPS EVEN INTO NORTHEAST MA.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.
JUST A LOW RISK FOR BRIEF MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE INTERIOR ON MONDAY
AS A DECK OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS MOVES INTO THE REGION.
OTHERWISE...GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS
EXPECTED DURING THE DAY MONDAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE TONIGHT WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON
MONDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE TONIGHT WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON
MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TUE...VFR.
WED...VFR
THU...VFR.
FRI...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LOW PRESSURE PASSING NEAR
THE BENCHMARK WILL RESULT IN ENOUGH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SWELL FOR
SCA SEAS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS AND WESTERN SOUNDS.
SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD BECOME SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS
LATER TONIGHT. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN WATERS.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  SCA SEAS
ON THE WESTERN SOUNDS AND OUTER-WATERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...A PERIOD OF WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS IS POSSIBLE FOR A TIME ON MONDAY.
THEREFORE...IT IS POSSIBLE WE MAY NEED TO EXPAND SCA FOR A TIME
DURING THE DAY MONDAY INTO SOME OF THE NEARSHORE SOUNDS AND
WATERS. CONFIDENCE NOT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH TO DO THIS RIGHT NOW...
SO WILL DEFER TO THE NEXT SHIFT.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

TUE AND WED...SEAS NEAR 5 FT MAY LINGER AT TIMES TUE AND WED OVER
THE WATERS S AND E OF NANTUCKET. OTHERWISE WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD
BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. A NORTHEAST WIND GRADIENT
WILL INCREASE OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS TUE NIGHT INTO WED
AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BUT
GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY REACH 20 KT.

WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI...QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING THE WEATHER. WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 5 PM EDT MONDAY FOR MAZ020>024.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 5 PM EDT MONDAY FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 4 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/FIELD
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...FIELD
AVIATION...FRANK/FIELD
MARINE...FRANK/FIELD




000
FXUS61 KBOX 212006
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
406 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN WILL AFFECT THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND
COAST THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...DRIER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER IS
ON TAP FOR MONDAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNNY DAYS AND CLEAR NIGHTS TO THE
REGION FROM TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH A WARMING TREND. WE
COULD APPROACH RECORD WARMTH ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...

***A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN EXPECTED THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
   SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST***

MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITH DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS ALLOWED
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUED TO AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  WE SHOULD SEE THIS ACTIVITY DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST WHICH WILL BE TRACKING NORTHEAST AND PASSING NEAR THE
BENCHMARK THIS EVENING. THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW FAR NORTHWEST
THE RAIN SHIELD WILL GET. LATEST NEAR TERM GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
TRENDING FURTHER NORTHWEST. THEREFORE...EXPECT A PERIOD OF STEADY
RAIN ACROSS THE CAPE/ISLANDS AND PROBABLY FURTHER NORTHWEST INTO
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MA/RHODE ISLAND FOR AT LEAST A TIME. IN
FACT...LATEST HRRR SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MA COAST INCLUDING BOSTON. NOT SURE IF
IT WILL GET THAT FAR NORTHWEST...BUT ITS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.
REGARDLESS...THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS NANTUCKET...
WHERE BETWEEN 0.50 TO PERHAPS UP TO 1 INCH OF RAIN MAY OCCUR.
THE RAIN MAY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING ACROSS THE CAPE
AND ISLANDS...BUT SHOULD WIND DOWN NEAR OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT.

MEANWHILE...ONCE THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SCATTERED SHOWERS WIND DOWN EARLY THIS EVENING...THE REST OF THE
REGION WILL MAINLY BE DRY TONIGHT.  HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING OUR WESTERN ZONES TOWARD MIDNIGHT.  WHILE SHEAR IS QUITE
IMPRESSIVE...VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY WILL BE LEFT.  SO WHILE WE MAY
SEE A FEW SPOT SHOWERS AFFECT OUR WESTERN ZONES...THEY WILL BE IN
THE PROCESS OF WEAKENING AND NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN THAT. LOW
TEMPS WILL ONLY BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 50S AND THE LOWER 60S BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

MONDAY...

A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL WORK INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. WHILE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED EARLY...MAY SEE A SCATTERED TO BROKEN DECK OF STRATO-
CUMULUS CLOUDS WORK INTO AT LEAST THE INTERIOR BY AFTERNOON. HIGHS
SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE INTERIOR...BUT STILL WILL
REACH BETWEEN 70 AND 75 ALONG HE COASTAL PLAIN. GUSTY WEST WINDS
OF 20 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED AS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWING VERY GOOD
MIXING.

HIGH SURF...GIVEN LARGE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SWELL FROM DEPARTING
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAVE ISSUED A HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR THE
SOUTH COAST ON MONDAY.  WE ISSUE HIGH SURF PRODUCTS THROUGH THE END
OF SEPTEMBER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

MONDAY NIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.  THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR DIMINISHING WINDS AND SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR.  LOOKS LIKE
A PRETTY GOOD NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING...WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT
IN THE UPPER 30S TO THE MIDDLE 40S IN MOST LOCALES.  THE URBAN HEAT
ISLAND OF BOSTON WILL BE THE MILD SPOT WITH THE LOW BOTTOMING OUT
NEAR 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD
* NEAR RECORD WARMTH POSSIBLE NEXT SATURDAY

OVERVIEW...
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST MODEL GUIDANCE THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEPARTS THE NORTHEAST STATES ON
TUESDAY. THEN...MUCH ADO ABOUT BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE...BOTH AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE
IS VERY STRONG AS IT IS PARKED FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND BY NEXT WEEKEND.

DETAILS... TUESDAY WILL FEATURE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXCEPT ONLY
PARTLY SUNNY NW MA AND SW NH CLOSER TO SOME HIGHER 925 MB
HUMIDITY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SUNNY DAYS AND CLEAR NIGHTS THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND. HAVE GONE A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN MODEL CONSENSUS
TEMPERATURE MINIMUMS THROUGH THU DUE TO EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING EXPECTED ALONG WITH VERY DRY DEWPOINTS. AS THE CENTER OF
THE UPPER HIGH APPROACHES...AM EXPECTING A DRAMATIC WARMUP FRI
AND ESPECIALLY SAT. THE 12Z ECMWF RUN IS EVEN WARMER THAN THE
PREVIOUS RUN WITH 925 MB TEMPERATURES WARMING FROM +12C TUE...TO
+17C FRI... TO +19C OR +20C ON SAT... WITH WARM TEMPERATURES
LIKELY CONTINUING INTO EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK. HAVE GONE SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE MODEL CONSENSUS MAXIMUMS FOR NEXT SATURDAY...WITH
HIGHS SOARING TO 80 TO 85 ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
RECORDS FOR THAT DAY INCLUDE 85 AT WORCESTER AND 86 AT BOTH BOSTON
AND PROVIDENCE.

LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE PERIOD...SO ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE
DRY WE ARE NOT EXPECTING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. LOCAL SEA BREEZES
WILL OCCUR...ESPECIALLY FRI THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT THE GFS HAS A HINT OF A POTENTIAL BACKDOOR FRONT/TROUGH
OVER NORTHEAST MA ON SAT BUT THIS WAS NOT ENOUGH TO DETRACT FROM
THE VERY WARM FORECAST...AS YET.

AN UPPER LOW OVER VIRGINIA AND AN ASSOCIATED INVERTED TROUGH IS
LIKELY TO BE CAUSING PRECIPITATION IN THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
MID TO LATE IN THE WORK WEEK THAT TRIES TO WORK ITS WAY NORTHWARD.
THERE IS EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THIS AREA ONLY GETS AS
FAR NORTHWARD AS OFF THE NJ COAST BY FRI...BEFORE RETREATING
SOUTHWARD AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE
NORTHEAST ON THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY MVFR
CIGS WERE DOMINATING AT MID AFTERNOON...BUT SOME IFR CONDITIONS WERE
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET.  MAY SEE CONDITIONS LOWER
TO IFR IN SOME LOCALES NEAR THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH
EARLY EVENING.  REST OF THE REGION SHOULD MAINLY BE MVFR.

TONIGHT...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  GUIDANCE SEEMS A BIT TOO
PESSIMISTIC ON CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES GIVEN WINDS SHIFTING TO MORE
OF A WESTERLY DIRECTION LATER THIS EVENING...ALBEIT LIGHT. PATCHES
OF IFR CONDITIONS STILL LIKELY THOUGH...ESPECIALLY IF ANY PATCHY
FOG CAN DEVELOP. WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS MOST LIKELY NEAR THE
FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST. IN ADDITION...A PERIOD OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO AFFECT AT LEAST THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST
THIS EVENING. THE RAIN WILL LIKELY REACH INTO RHODE ISLAND/INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST MA FOR A SHORT TIME AND PERHAPS EVEN INTO NORTHEAST MA.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.
JUST A LOW RISK FOR BRIEF MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE INTERIOR ON MONDAY
AS A DECK OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS MOVES INTO THE REGION.
OTHERWISE...GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS
EXPECTED DURING THE DAY MONDAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE TONIGHT WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON
MONDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE TONIGHT WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON
MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TUE...VFR.
WED...VFR
THU...VFR.
FRI...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LOW PRESSURE PASSING NEAR
THE BENCHMARK WILL RESULT IN ENOUGH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SWELL FOR
SCA SEAS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS AND WESTERN SOUNDS.
SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD BECOME SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS
LATER TONIGHT. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN WATERS.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  SCA SEAS
ON THE WESTERN SOUNDS AND OUTER-WATERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...A PERIOD OF WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS IS POSSIBLE FOR A TIME ON MONDAY.
THEREFORE...IT IS POSSIBLE WE MAY NEED TO EXPAND SCA FOR A TIME
DURING THE DAY MONDAY INTO SOME OF THE NEARSHORE SOUNDS AND
WATERS. CONFIDENCE NOT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH TO DO THIS RIGHT NOW...
SO WILL DEFER TO THE NEXT SHIFT.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

TUE AND WED...SEAS NEAR 5 FT MAY LINGER AT TIMES TUE AND WED OVER
THE WATERS S AND E OF NANTUCKET. OTHERWISE WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD
BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. A NORTHEAST WIND GRADIENT
WILL INCREASE OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS TUE NIGHT INTO WED
AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BUT
GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY REACH 20 KT.

WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI...QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING THE WEATHER. WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 5 PM EDT MONDAY FOR MAZ020>024.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 5 PM EDT MONDAY FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 4 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/FIELD
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...FIELD
AVIATION...FRANK/FIELD
MARINE...FRANK/FIELD




000
FXUS61 KBOX 212006
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
406 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN WILL AFFECT THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND
COAST THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...DRIER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER IS
ON TAP FOR MONDAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNNY DAYS AND CLEAR NIGHTS TO THE
REGION FROM TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH A WARMING TREND. WE
COULD APPROACH RECORD WARMTH ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...

***A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN EXPECTED THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
   SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST***

MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITH DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS ALLOWED
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUED TO AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  WE SHOULD SEE THIS ACTIVITY DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST WHICH WILL BE TRACKING NORTHEAST AND PASSING NEAR THE
BENCHMARK THIS EVENING. THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW FAR NORTHWEST
THE RAIN SHIELD WILL GET. LATEST NEAR TERM GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
TRENDING FURTHER NORTHWEST. THEREFORE...EXPECT A PERIOD OF STEADY
RAIN ACROSS THE CAPE/ISLANDS AND PROBABLY FURTHER NORTHWEST INTO
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MA/RHODE ISLAND FOR AT LEAST A TIME. IN
FACT...LATEST HRRR SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MA COAST INCLUDING BOSTON. NOT SURE IF
IT WILL GET THAT FAR NORTHWEST...BUT ITS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.
REGARDLESS...THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS NANTUCKET...
WHERE BETWEEN 0.50 TO PERHAPS UP TO 1 INCH OF RAIN MAY OCCUR.
THE RAIN MAY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING ACROSS THE CAPE
AND ISLANDS...BUT SHOULD WIND DOWN NEAR OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT.

MEANWHILE...ONCE THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SCATTERED SHOWERS WIND DOWN EARLY THIS EVENING...THE REST OF THE
REGION WILL MAINLY BE DRY TONIGHT.  HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING OUR WESTERN ZONES TOWARD MIDNIGHT.  WHILE SHEAR IS QUITE
IMPRESSIVE...VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY WILL BE LEFT.  SO WHILE WE MAY
SEE A FEW SPOT SHOWERS AFFECT OUR WESTERN ZONES...THEY WILL BE IN
THE PROCESS OF WEAKENING AND NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN THAT. LOW
TEMPS WILL ONLY BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 50S AND THE LOWER 60S BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

MONDAY...

A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL WORK INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. WHILE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED EARLY...MAY SEE A SCATTERED TO BROKEN DECK OF STRATO-
CUMULUS CLOUDS WORK INTO AT LEAST THE INTERIOR BY AFTERNOON. HIGHS
SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE INTERIOR...BUT STILL WILL
REACH BETWEEN 70 AND 75 ALONG HE COASTAL PLAIN. GUSTY WEST WINDS
OF 20 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED AS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWING VERY GOOD
MIXING.

HIGH SURF...GIVEN LARGE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SWELL FROM DEPARTING
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAVE ISSUED A HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR THE
SOUTH COAST ON MONDAY.  WE ISSUE HIGH SURF PRODUCTS THROUGH THE END
OF SEPTEMBER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

MONDAY NIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.  THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR DIMINISHING WINDS AND SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR.  LOOKS LIKE
A PRETTY GOOD NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING...WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT
IN THE UPPER 30S TO THE MIDDLE 40S IN MOST LOCALES.  THE URBAN HEAT
ISLAND OF BOSTON WILL BE THE MILD SPOT WITH THE LOW BOTTOMING OUT
NEAR 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD
* NEAR RECORD WARMTH POSSIBLE NEXT SATURDAY

OVERVIEW...
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST MODEL GUIDANCE THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEPARTS THE NORTHEAST STATES ON
TUESDAY. THEN...MUCH ADO ABOUT BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE...BOTH AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE
IS VERY STRONG AS IT IS PARKED FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND BY NEXT WEEKEND.

DETAILS... TUESDAY WILL FEATURE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXCEPT ONLY
PARTLY SUNNY NW MA AND SW NH CLOSER TO SOME HIGHER 925 MB
HUMIDITY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SUNNY DAYS AND CLEAR NIGHTS THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND. HAVE GONE A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN MODEL CONSENSUS
TEMPERATURE MINIMUMS THROUGH THU DUE TO EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING EXPECTED ALONG WITH VERY DRY DEWPOINTS. AS THE CENTER OF
THE UPPER HIGH APPROACHES...AM EXPECTING A DRAMATIC WARMUP FRI
AND ESPECIALLY SAT. THE 12Z ECMWF RUN IS EVEN WARMER THAN THE
PREVIOUS RUN WITH 925 MB TEMPERATURES WARMING FROM +12C TUE...TO
+17C FRI... TO +19C OR +20C ON SAT... WITH WARM TEMPERATURES
LIKELY CONTINUING INTO EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK. HAVE GONE SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE MODEL CONSENSUS MAXIMUMS FOR NEXT SATURDAY...WITH
HIGHS SOARING TO 80 TO 85 ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
RECORDS FOR THAT DAY INCLUDE 85 AT WORCESTER AND 86 AT BOTH BOSTON
AND PROVIDENCE.

LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE PERIOD...SO ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE
DRY WE ARE NOT EXPECTING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. LOCAL SEA BREEZES
WILL OCCUR...ESPECIALLY FRI THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT THE GFS HAS A HINT OF A POTENTIAL BACKDOOR FRONT/TROUGH
OVER NORTHEAST MA ON SAT BUT THIS WAS NOT ENOUGH TO DETRACT FROM
THE VERY WARM FORECAST...AS YET.

AN UPPER LOW OVER VIRGINIA AND AN ASSOCIATED INVERTED TROUGH IS
LIKELY TO BE CAUSING PRECIPITATION IN THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
MID TO LATE IN THE WORK WEEK THAT TRIES TO WORK ITS WAY NORTHWARD.
THERE IS EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THIS AREA ONLY GETS AS
FAR NORTHWARD AS OFF THE NJ COAST BY FRI...BEFORE RETREATING
SOUTHWARD AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE
NORTHEAST ON THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY MVFR
CIGS WERE DOMINATING AT MID AFTERNOON...BUT SOME IFR CONDITIONS WERE
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET.  MAY SEE CONDITIONS LOWER
TO IFR IN SOME LOCALES NEAR THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH
EARLY EVENING.  REST OF THE REGION SHOULD MAINLY BE MVFR.

TONIGHT...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  GUIDANCE SEEMS A BIT TOO
PESSIMISTIC ON CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES GIVEN WINDS SHIFTING TO MORE
OF A WESTERLY DIRECTION LATER THIS EVENING...ALBEIT LIGHT. PATCHES
OF IFR CONDITIONS STILL LIKELY THOUGH...ESPECIALLY IF ANY PATCHY
FOG CAN DEVELOP. WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS MOST LIKELY NEAR THE
FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST. IN ADDITION...A PERIOD OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO AFFECT AT LEAST THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST
THIS EVENING. THE RAIN WILL LIKELY REACH INTO RHODE ISLAND/INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST MA FOR A SHORT TIME AND PERHAPS EVEN INTO NORTHEAST MA.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.
JUST A LOW RISK FOR BRIEF MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE INTERIOR ON MONDAY
AS A DECK OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS MOVES INTO THE REGION.
OTHERWISE...GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS
EXPECTED DURING THE DAY MONDAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE TONIGHT WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON
MONDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE TONIGHT WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON
MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TUE...VFR.
WED...VFR
THU...VFR.
FRI...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LOW PRESSURE PASSING NEAR
THE BENCHMARK WILL RESULT IN ENOUGH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SWELL FOR
SCA SEAS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS AND WESTERN SOUNDS.
SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD BECOME SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS
LATER TONIGHT. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN WATERS.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  SCA SEAS
ON THE WESTERN SOUNDS AND OUTER-WATERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...A PERIOD OF WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS IS POSSIBLE FOR A TIME ON MONDAY.
THEREFORE...IT IS POSSIBLE WE MAY NEED TO EXPAND SCA FOR A TIME
DURING THE DAY MONDAY INTO SOME OF THE NEARSHORE SOUNDS AND
WATERS. CONFIDENCE NOT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH TO DO THIS RIGHT NOW...
SO WILL DEFER TO THE NEXT SHIFT.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

TUE AND WED...SEAS NEAR 5 FT MAY LINGER AT TIMES TUE AND WED OVER
THE WATERS S AND E OF NANTUCKET. OTHERWISE WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD
BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. A NORTHEAST WIND GRADIENT
WILL INCREASE OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS TUE NIGHT INTO WED
AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BUT
GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY REACH 20 KT.

WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI...QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING THE WEATHER. WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 5 PM EDT MONDAY FOR MAZ020>024.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 5 PM EDT MONDAY FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 4 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/FIELD
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...FIELD
AVIATION...FRANK/FIELD
MARINE...FRANK/FIELD




000
FXUS61 KOKX 211929
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
329 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN
CROSSES THE TRI-STATE THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...MEANWHILE A
COASTAL LOW TRACKS TO THE EAST...THEN NORTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE HIGH THEN DOMINATES THE WEATHER THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
700-500 HPA TROUGH APPROACHES THIS EVENING THEN BEGINS TO CROSS
THE TRI-STATE OVERNIGHT. RADAR TRENDS AND ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT ANY -SHRA AHEAD OF IT AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BE
FALLING APART AS THEY APPROACH THE CWA. THIS IS DUE TO LOSS OF
THERMODYNAMIC FORCING AFTER SUNSET AND BEST DYNAMICS STAYING TO
THE NW/N. SO FOR NOW HAVE CHANCE POPS OVER FAR W ORANGE COUNTY
TOWARDS MID EVENING...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER MOST OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE NORTHERN TIER. FOR NOW BELIEVE PROBABILITY OF
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS LESS THAN 15 PERCENT ACROSS SOUTHERN
ZONES...SO HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST THERE - HOWEVER A STRAY
SHOWER OR TWO/SPRINKLE CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT SUED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH VALUES
FORECAST TO BE 4 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL OUTSIDE OF THE NYC HEAT
ISLAND...AND NEAR NORMAL INSIDE THE HEAT ISLAND AND AREAS TO THE
N/W OF NYC DUE TO THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT.

ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG THIS EVENING OVER SE CT/THE
TWIN FORKS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WHILE LOCALLY DENSE FOG CANNOT
BE RULED OUT - AM CURRENTLY NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN ITS POTENTIAL
TO ISSUE ANY STATEMENTS.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC BEACHES THIS
EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
REGION REMAINS UNDER THE BASE OF 700-500 HPA TROUGH MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE A FEW SHORTWAVES ROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH - BUT GIVEN FORECAST DRYING IN THE LOW LEVELS WOULD ONLY
EXPECT AT MOST SOME CLOUDS AS THEY PASS. SO GOING WITH A MOSTLY
SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY MONDAY AND A MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR SKY
MONDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT.

FOR HIGHS MONDAY USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 875 HPA...EXCEPT
850 HPA OVER THE NW 1/4 OF THE CWA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE. EXPECT
READINGS TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR LOWS MONDAY NIGHT - WITH
READINGS FORECAST TO BE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF ORANGE COUNTY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE EAST COAST TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH SUNDAY.

AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WHILE
ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM CENTRAL CANADA. THE COMBINED
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND
THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH THEN
BUILDS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY AND REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY INTO
SUNDAY. INITIALLY THE AIR MASS WILL BE COOL TUESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A
WARMING TREND SETS UP FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE AIR
MASS MODIFIES. NEXT WEEKEND TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE REBOUNDED TO
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE SE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THIS EVENING AND PASS THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ON MONDAY.

IFR CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH ONSHORE FLOW JUST AHEAD OF THE OFFSHORE
LOW HAVE MOVED BACK IN AT KISP/KGON...AND ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN
TONIGHT UNTIL COLD FROPA...THOUGH THEY MAY IMPROVE TO MVFR FOR A
COUPLE OF HRS BEFORE FROPA LATE TONIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...MVFR CIGS ELSEWHERE MAY BRIEFLY IMPROVE TO VFR LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WITH NIGHTTIME COOLING EXPECT AT LEAST TEMPO
MVFR CIGS TO RETURN TOWARD EVENING FOR 2-3 HRS BEFORE COLD FROPA.
TIMING OF FROPA LOOKS TO BE 05Z KSWF...05Z-06Z NYC METRO...AND
07Z-08Z FARTHER EAST...WITH QUICK IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

WNW WINDS...WEST OF 310 MAGNETIC...AT 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS AROUND
OR JUST OVER 20 KT...SHOULD DEVELOP BY 12Z MON. GUSTS COULD START
A COUPLE HRS SOONER THAN FCST...AND COULD BRIEFLY TOUCH 25 KT IN
NYC METRO BETWEEN 12Z-15Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MON THROUGH THU...
.MON AFTERNOON/NIGHT...VFR. NW WINDS G20KT INTO EARLY EVENING.
.TUE-THU...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS BUILD TO UP TO 5 FT ON THE WESTERN COASTAL OCEAN WATERS AND
UP TO 8 FT ON THE EASTERN COASTAL OCEAN WATERS BY LATE TONIGHT.
WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS ON MONDAY
- HAVE CONVERTED SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS TO A PLAIN SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY. SCA WIND GUSTS SHOULD LINGER OVER THE EASTERN TWO
COASTAL WATER ZONES INTO MONDAY EVENING AND SCA LEVEL SEAS THROUGH
THE NIGHT IN THOSE TWO ZONES...SO HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA FOR
ANZ-350 AND 353 THROUGH 10Z TUESDAY AS A RESULT.

ON THE REMAINDER OF THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE
CURRENTLY EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT ARE
FORECAST ON MONDAY - HOWEVER OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25KT CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ACROSS THE EXTREME OUTER
OCEAN WATERS EAST OF MORICHES INLET VERY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS
SEAS WILL BE SUBSIDING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WATERS TUESDAY INTO SATURDAY WIND AND
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LITTLE IF ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
THE PASSING OF A COASTAL LOW TO THE EAST AND THE PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT.

IT SHOULD THEN BE DRY FROM MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/MET
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...GOODMAN
MARINE...MALOIT/MET
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT




000
FXUS61 KOKX 211929
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
329 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN
CROSSES THE TRI-STATE THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...MEANWHILE A
COASTAL LOW TRACKS TO THE EAST...THEN NORTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE HIGH THEN DOMINATES THE WEATHER THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
700-500 HPA TROUGH APPROACHES THIS EVENING THEN BEGINS TO CROSS
THE TRI-STATE OVERNIGHT. RADAR TRENDS AND ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT ANY -SHRA AHEAD OF IT AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BE
FALLING APART AS THEY APPROACH THE CWA. THIS IS DUE TO LOSS OF
THERMODYNAMIC FORCING AFTER SUNSET AND BEST DYNAMICS STAYING TO
THE NW/N. SO FOR NOW HAVE CHANCE POPS OVER FAR W ORANGE COUNTY
TOWARDS MID EVENING...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER MOST OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE NORTHERN TIER. FOR NOW BELIEVE PROBABILITY OF
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS LESS THAN 15 PERCENT ACROSS SOUTHERN
ZONES...SO HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST THERE - HOWEVER A STRAY
SHOWER OR TWO/SPRINKLE CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT SUED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH VALUES
FORECAST TO BE 4 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL OUTSIDE OF THE NYC HEAT
ISLAND...AND NEAR NORMAL INSIDE THE HEAT ISLAND AND AREAS TO THE
N/W OF NYC DUE TO THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT.

ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG THIS EVENING OVER SE CT/THE
TWIN FORKS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WHILE LOCALLY DENSE FOG CANNOT
BE RULED OUT - AM CURRENTLY NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN ITS POTENTIAL
TO ISSUE ANY STATEMENTS.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC BEACHES THIS
EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
REGION REMAINS UNDER THE BASE OF 700-500 HPA TROUGH MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE A FEW SHORTWAVES ROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH - BUT GIVEN FORECAST DRYING IN THE LOW LEVELS WOULD ONLY
EXPECT AT MOST SOME CLOUDS AS THEY PASS. SO GOING WITH A MOSTLY
SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY MONDAY AND A MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR SKY
MONDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT.

FOR HIGHS MONDAY USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 875 HPA...EXCEPT
850 HPA OVER THE NW 1/4 OF THE CWA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE. EXPECT
READINGS TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR LOWS MONDAY NIGHT - WITH
READINGS FORECAST TO BE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF ORANGE COUNTY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE EAST COAST TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH SUNDAY.

AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WHILE
ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM CENTRAL CANADA. THE COMBINED
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND
THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH THEN
BUILDS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY AND REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY INTO
SUNDAY. INITIALLY THE AIR MASS WILL BE COOL TUESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A
WARMING TREND SETS UP FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE AIR
MASS MODIFIES. NEXT WEEKEND TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE REBOUNDED TO
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE SE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THIS EVENING AND PASS THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ON MONDAY.

IFR CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH ONSHORE FLOW JUST AHEAD OF THE OFFSHORE
LOW HAVE MOVED BACK IN AT KISP/KGON...AND ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN
TONIGHT UNTIL COLD FROPA...THOUGH THEY MAY IMPROVE TO MVFR FOR A
COUPLE OF HRS BEFORE FROPA LATE TONIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...MVFR CIGS ELSEWHERE MAY BRIEFLY IMPROVE TO VFR LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WITH NIGHTTIME COOLING EXPECT AT LEAST TEMPO
MVFR CIGS TO RETURN TOWARD EVENING FOR 2-3 HRS BEFORE COLD FROPA.
TIMING OF FROPA LOOKS TO BE 05Z KSWF...05Z-06Z NYC METRO...AND
07Z-08Z FARTHER EAST...WITH QUICK IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

WNW WINDS...WEST OF 310 MAGNETIC...AT 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS AROUND
OR JUST OVER 20 KT...SHOULD DEVELOP BY 12Z MON. GUSTS COULD START
A COUPLE HRS SOONER THAN FCST...AND COULD BRIEFLY TOUCH 25 KT IN
NYC METRO BETWEEN 12Z-15Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MON THROUGH THU...
.MON AFTERNOON/NIGHT...VFR. NW WINDS G20KT INTO EARLY EVENING.
.TUE-THU...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS BUILD TO UP TO 5 FT ON THE WESTERN COASTAL OCEAN WATERS AND
UP TO 8 FT ON THE EASTERN COASTAL OCEAN WATERS BY LATE TONIGHT.
WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS ON MONDAY
- HAVE CONVERTED SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS TO A PLAIN SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY. SCA WIND GUSTS SHOULD LINGER OVER THE EASTERN TWO
COASTAL WATER ZONES INTO MONDAY EVENING AND SCA LEVEL SEAS THROUGH
THE NIGHT IN THOSE TWO ZONES...SO HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA FOR
ANZ-350 AND 353 THROUGH 10Z TUESDAY AS A RESULT.

ON THE REMAINDER OF THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE
CURRENTLY EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT ARE
FORECAST ON MONDAY - HOWEVER OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25KT CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ACROSS THE EXTREME OUTER
OCEAN WATERS EAST OF MORICHES INLET VERY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS
SEAS WILL BE SUBSIDING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WATERS TUESDAY INTO SATURDAY WIND AND
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LITTLE IF ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
THE PASSING OF A COASTAL LOW TO THE EAST AND THE PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT.

IT SHOULD THEN BE DRY FROM MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/MET
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...GOODMAN
MARINE...MALOIT/MET
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT





000
FXUS61 KOKX 211832
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
232 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND THIS
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE TRI-STATE TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN
SLOWLY SLIDES OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE HIGH THEN
BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION TO CLOSE THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHRA HAVE FLARED BACK UP OVER SE CT ALONG AN OLD BOUNDARY. LINE OF
CONVECTION OVER WESTERN PA IS DISSIPATING AS IT HEADS EAST. BASED
ON THIS...TRENDED FORECAST TO DRY WEST WITH MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS EAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.

CIRRUS SHIELD HAS BLOWN OVER WESTERN ZONES WHERE THERE WAS SOME
CLEARING EARLIER...AND HOLES IN CLOUD COVER TO THE EAST HAVE
FILLED. LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS DO NOT SUPPORT IDEA OF MUCH...IF
ANY...IN THE WAY OF CLEARING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON OR SO. AS A
RESULT...HAVE LOWERED HIGHS TO AT MOST UPPER 70S DUE TO THE IMPACT
OF CLOUD COVER.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC OCEAN FACING
BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATING THE FRONT WILL COME THROUGH MOSTLY DRY. WILL KEEP SOME
CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH MIDNIGHT FROM WESTERN LONG ISLAND
AND WESTERN CT POINTS WEST. ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTION...THINKING
THE SHOWERS WILL NOT MAKE IT OUT THIS FAR. EXPECT CLEARING AFTER THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 55-60
INLAND...AND 60-65 IN NYC METRO AND ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT LIKELY JUST TO THE EAST OF
THE AREA. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST TO PASS EAST OF THE
AREA LATE MONDAY. AS OF NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH THE DRY FORECAST TO
START MONDAY WITH THE FRONT EAST OF THE REGION AND DOWNSLOPING
NORTHWESTERLY WIND AIDING IN DRYING THE LOWER LEVELS.

A STRONG RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
THE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE A
COOL CANADIAN AIR MASS BUILD IN MONDAY AND THEN REMAINS THROUGH
SATURDAY. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE COOLER THAN
NORMAL...THEN A WARMING TREND SETS UP FOR THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY AS THE AIR MASS MODIFIES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE SE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THIS EVENING AND PASS THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ON MONDAY.

IFR CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH ONSHORE FLOW JUST AHEAD OF THE OFFSHORE
LOW HAVE MOVED BACK IN AT KISP/KGON...AND ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN
TONIGHT UNTIL COLD FROPA...THOUGH THEY MAY IMPROVE TO MVFR FOR A
COUPLE OF HRS BEFORE FROPA LATE TONIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...MVFR CIGS ELSEWHERE MAY BRIEFLY IMPROVE TO VFR LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WITH NIGHTTIME COOLING EXPECT AT LEAST TEMPO
MVFR CIGS TO RETURN TOWARD EVENING FOR 2-3 HRS BEFORE COLD FROPA.
TIMING OF FROPA LOOKS TO BE 05Z KSWF...05Z-06Z NYC METRO...AND
07Z-08Z FARTHER EAST...WITH QUICK IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

WNW WINDS...WEST OF 310 MAGNETIC...AT 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS AROUND
OR JUST OVER 20 KT...SHOULD DEVELOP BY 12Z MON. GUSTS COULD START
A COUPLE HRS SOONER THAN FCST...AND COULD BRIEFLY TOUCH 25 KT IN
NYC METRO BETWEEN 12Z-15Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MON THROUGH THU...
.MON AFTERNOON/NIGHT...VFR. NW WINDS G20KT INTO EARLY EVENING.
.TUE-THU...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON.

SEAS BUILD TO AT LEAST 5 FT ON ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS TONIGHT
AND MONDAY DUE TO A COMBINATION OF INCREASING WINDS...AND FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANT SE SWELLS. HAVE CONTINUED WITH SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
THERE. ELSEWHERE WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH
TONIGHT.

SOME GUSTS DURING MONDAY ON ALL THE FORECAST WATERS MAY REACH
20-25 KT AT TIMES...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE
AN SCA AT THIS TIME.

WINDS DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT...BUT SWELLS COULD KEEP SEAS ON THE
COASTAL OCEAN WATERS AT SCA LEVELS. AFTER THAT...A RELAXED
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LESS THAN 1/4 INCH OF RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THERE
IS A DIMINISHING CHANCE OF -SHRA THIS EVENING...WITH LITTLE
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

IT SHOULD THEN BE DRY FROM MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING
     TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...GOODMAN
MARINE...BC/MALOIT/MET
HYDROLOGY...BC






000
FXUS61 KOKX 211832
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
232 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND THIS
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE TRI-STATE TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN
SLOWLY SLIDES OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE HIGH THEN
BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION TO CLOSE THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHRA HAVE FLARED BACK UP OVER SE CT ALONG AN OLD BOUNDARY. LINE OF
CONVECTION OVER WESTERN PA IS DISSIPATING AS IT HEADS EAST. BASED
ON THIS...TRENDED FORECAST TO DRY WEST WITH MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS EAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.

CIRRUS SHIELD HAS BLOWN OVER WESTERN ZONES WHERE THERE WAS SOME
CLEARING EARLIER...AND HOLES IN CLOUD COVER TO THE EAST HAVE
FILLED. LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS DO NOT SUPPORT IDEA OF MUCH...IF
ANY...IN THE WAY OF CLEARING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON OR SO. AS A
RESULT...HAVE LOWERED HIGHS TO AT MOST UPPER 70S DUE TO THE IMPACT
OF CLOUD COVER.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC OCEAN FACING
BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATING THE FRONT WILL COME THROUGH MOSTLY DRY. WILL KEEP SOME
CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH MIDNIGHT FROM WESTERN LONG ISLAND
AND WESTERN CT POINTS WEST. ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTION...THINKING
THE SHOWERS WILL NOT MAKE IT OUT THIS FAR. EXPECT CLEARING AFTER THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 55-60
INLAND...AND 60-65 IN NYC METRO AND ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT LIKELY JUST TO THE EAST OF
THE AREA. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST TO PASS EAST OF THE
AREA LATE MONDAY. AS OF NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH THE DRY FORECAST TO
START MONDAY WITH THE FRONT EAST OF THE REGION AND DOWNSLOPING
NORTHWESTERLY WIND AIDING IN DRYING THE LOWER LEVELS.

A STRONG RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
THE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE A
COOL CANADIAN AIR MASS BUILD IN MONDAY AND THEN REMAINS THROUGH
SATURDAY. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE COOLER THAN
NORMAL...THEN A WARMING TREND SETS UP FOR THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY AS THE AIR MASS MODIFIES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE SE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THIS EVENING AND PASS THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ON MONDAY.

IFR CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH ONSHORE FLOW JUST AHEAD OF THE OFFSHORE
LOW HAVE MOVED BACK IN AT KISP/KGON...AND ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN
TONIGHT UNTIL COLD FROPA...THOUGH THEY MAY IMPROVE TO MVFR FOR A
COUPLE OF HRS BEFORE FROPA LATE TONIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...MVFR CIGS ELSEWHERE MAY BRIEFLY IMPROVE TO VFR LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WITH NIGHTTIME COOLING EXPECT AT LEAST TEMPO
MVFR CIGS TO RETURN TOWARD EVENING FOR 2-3 HRS BEFORE COLD FROPA.
TIMING OF FROPA LOOKS TO BE 05Z KSWF...05Z-06Z NYC METRO...AND
07Z-08Z FARTHER EAST...WITH QUICK IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

WNW WINDS...WEST OF 310 MAGNETIC...AT 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS AROUND
OR JUST OVER 20 KT...SHOULD DEVELOP BY 12Z MON. GUSTS COULD START
A COUPLE HRS SOONER THAN FCST...AND COULD BRIEFLY TOUCH 25 KT IN
NYC METRO BETWEEN 12Z-15Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MON THROUGH THU...
.MON AFTERNOON/NIGHT...VFR. NW WINDS G20KT INTO EARLY EVENING.
.TUE-THU...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON.

SEAS BUILD TO AT LEAST 5 FT ON ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS TONIGHT
AND MONDAY DUE TO A COMBINATION OF INCREASING WINDS...AND FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANT SE SWELLS. HAVE CONTINUED WITH SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
THERE. ELSEWHERE WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH
TONIGHT.

SOME GUSTS DURING MONDAY ON ALL THE FORECAST WATERS MAY REACH
20-25 KT AT TIMES...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE
AN SCA AT THIS TIME.

WINDS DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT...BUT SWELLS COULD KEEP SEAS ON THE
COASTAL OCEAN WATERS AT SCA LEVELS. AFTER THAT...A RELAXED
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LESS THAN 1/4 INCH OF RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THERE
IS A DIMINISHING CHANCE OF -SHRA THIS EVENING...WITH LITTLE
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

IT SHOULD THEN BE DRY FROM MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING
     TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...GOODMAN
MARINE...BC/MALOIT/MET
HYDROLOGY...BC







000
FXUS61 KALY 211826
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
225 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE LAST OFFICIAL WEEKEND OF SUMMER WILL END ON A MILD NOTE. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BRINGING SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM TO THE AREA. COOLER
AND BRISK CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL RETURN
FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...MOST OF NEXT
WEEK LOOKS DRY...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES DURING THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK...THEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE LOCAL AREA IS LOCATED BETWEEN A COASTAL LOW LOCATED OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST AND A COLD FRONT/LOW APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
THE COASTAL LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD PASSING SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND WHILE THE COLD FRONT GRADUALLY EASTWARD TODAY AS THE LOW
MOVES ALONG THE BOUNDARY ALONG THE NY/CANADIAN BORDER. THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING.

THE COVERAGE OF EXPECTED PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA CONTINUES
TO BE A CHALLENGE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. WHILE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST CHANCES WILL BE
THE LOWEST. THERE IS STILL THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER CONTINUES TO HAVE SEE TEXT ACROSS THE REGION WITH US IN THE
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE WIND OUTLOOK. THEY DID PULL THE AREA OUT OF THE
HAIL OUTLOOK. GUIDANCE INDICATES MUCAPE IN THE MID HUNDREDS J/KG
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE GREATEST 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
LESSER VALUES AS YOU HEAD TO THE SOUTHEAST. THERE IS ONGONG
CONVECTION OCCURRING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NEW YORK. SLOWED TIMING OF CONVECTION ACROSS FORECAST
AREA.

WARMING UP NICELY AS THE STRATUS CLOUDS HAVE LIFTED AND BURN OFF
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THEY DO LINGER ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST BUT ARE LIFTING. ITS ALSO FEELS HUMID/MUGGY AS DEW
POINTS HAVE RISEN INTO 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
WERE MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS OUR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND COUNTIES
THIS EVENING WITH THE CONTINUE THREAT FOR SCT-BKN LINE OF
CONVECTION. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FROPA...THE COLDER UPPER POOL WITH
THE TROUGH AND THE THAT LAST WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP THE CLOUDS AND THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS
WHICH THE BETTER PROBABILITIES WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
FURTHERMORE...LAKE ENHANCEMENT FROM LAKE ONTARIO WILL ALSO ASSIST
WITH DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS DELTA T/S CLIMB ABOVE 13C.

MONDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A RATHER BRISK AND COOL DAY WITH CLOUDS
AND THE CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS. THE HEART OF THE COLD POOL /AOA
0C H850/ WILL BE OVERHEAD COINCIDING WITH A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO PROVIDE GUSTS OVER 20KTS. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE ALMOST
15 DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY/S WITH MAINLY 50S ACROSS THE
TERRAIN AND MID-UPPER 60S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS MAY LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOCATIONS DOWNWIND OF THE CATSKILLS LIKELY
EXPERIENCING CLEARING SKIES INCLUDING EASTERN WINDHAM COUNTY OF
SOUTHERN VT. WITH THE LOSS THE SUNLIGHT...SHOWERS TOO SHOULD
DIMINISH WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING BACK TO THE MID-UPR 30S FOR
THE DACKS AND 40S ELSEWHERE /A REMINDER THAT THE GROWING SEASON
HAS ENDED ACROSS NORTHERN HERKIMER...HAMILTON...NORTHERN WARREN
COUNTIES/.

TUESDAY...MODEL TRENDS ARE FAVORING ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MIGRATING ACROSS THE REGION. FRONTOLYSIS WILL BE UNDERWAY AS THE
THERMAL COLUMN WILL BE WARMING THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING AS HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT. SO THERE WILL BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AS HIGH TEMPS ACHIEVE 65-70F FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS AND LOW-MID 60S FOR THE TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGING AT 500 HPA WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE ENTIRE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK. THE 00Z GEFS
SHOWS 500 HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OF 1-2 STD ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE IN
THE WEEK...WITH ANOMALIES OF 2-3 STD ABOVE NORMAL SITUATED JUST TO
OUR NORTHWEST...WHERE THE CORE OF WHERE THE WARMEST HEIGHTS WILL BE
SITUATED.

AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE STRONG SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTROL THE WEATHER THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK AS WELL. THE HIGH WILL
SLOWLY MOVE FROM OVER UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY TO OFF
THE COAST FOR THURS THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE ALLOW WILL
ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPS WILL
GRADUALLY WARM UP THROUGHOUT THE WEEK...WITH VALLEY HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 ON WED...LOW 70S ON THURS...AND MID 70S FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR EACH NIGHT...AND LOWS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S /SOME UPPER 30S OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN/.
MOST AREAS THAT STILL HAVE THE GROWING SEASON ONGOING LOOK TO AVOID
A FROST/FREEZE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOWER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL LOW CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...KPOU AND KPSF...ALONG WITH
SOME WEAK/LIGHT SHOWERS. CLOUDS ARE ADVANCING INTO THE NORTHWEST
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND
LOW. WHILE INBETWEEN CLOUDS COVER HAS BEEN RATHER MINIMAL AT KGFL
AND KALB.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE...HOWEVER MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
LINGER A BIT LONGER THIS AFTERNOON AT KPOU. CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE
INCREASE AND ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

THERE ARE A COUPLE LINES OF SHOWERS OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE FRONT
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK INTO PENNSYLVANIA. THESES LINES
WILL MOVE EASTWARD...HOWEVER THEY ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SO HAVE
ADDRESS THREAT WITH VCSH IN TAFS.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO GUSTY ESPECIALLY UP THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING THEN SHIFT
TO THE WEST WITH THE PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT TONIGHT. ONCE DAYTIME
MIXING STARTS THE WESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY.

OUTLOOK...
MON THROUGH THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE HIGH ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE
INCREASE PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS...SO EXPECT RH VALUES TO REMAIN
ABOVE 50 PERCENT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WE DRY OUT TUESDAY AS WE
BEGIN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER.

SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 20 MPH TODAY.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST TONIGHT THEN INCREASE IN GUST
MAGNITUDES ON MONDAY WELL OVER 20 MPH AT TIMES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH AND CROSS THE REGION TODAY
BRINGING SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL TO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO GENERALLY BE A TENTH TO A
THIRD OF AN INCH WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ACROSS
ADIRONDACKS.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/BGM
NEAR TERM...GJM/IAA/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM










000
FXUS61 KALY 211826
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
225 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE LAST OFFICIAL WEEKEND OF SUMMER WILL END ON A MILD NOTE. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BRINGING SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM TO THE AREA. COOLER
AND BRISK CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL RETURN
FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...MOST OF NEXT
WEEK LOOKS DRY...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES DURING THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK...THEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE LOCAL AREA IS LOCATED BETWEEN A COASTAL LOW LOCATED OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST AND A COLD FRONT/LOW APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
THE COASTAL LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD PASSING SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND WHILE THE COLD FRONT GRADUALLY EASTWARD TODAY AS THE LOW
MOVES ALONG THE BOUNDARY ALONG THE NY/CANADIAN BORDER. THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING.

THE COVERAGE OF EXPECTED PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA CONTINUES
TO BE A CHALLENGE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. WHILE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST CHANCES WILL BE
THE LOWEST. THERE IS STILL THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER CONTINUES TO HAVE SEE TEXT ACROSS THE REGION WITH US IN THE
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE WIND OUTLOOK. THEY DID PULL THE AREA OUT OF THE
HAIL OUTLOOK. GUIDANCE INDICATES MUCAPE IN THE MID HUNDREDS J/KG
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE GREATEST 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
LESSER VALUES AS YOU HEAD TO THE SOUTHEAST. THERE IS ONGONG
CONVECTION OCCURRING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NEW YORK. SLOWED TIMING OF CONVECTION ACROSS FORECAST
AREA.

WARMING UP NICELY AS THE STRATUS CLOUDS HAVE LIFTED AND BURN OFF
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THEY DO LINGER ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST BUT ARE LIFTING. ITS ALSO FEELS HUMID/MUGGY AS DEW
POINTS HAVE RISEN INTO 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
WERE MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS OUR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND COUNTIES
THIS EVENING WITH THE CONTINUE THREAT FOR SCT-BKN LINE OF
CONVECTION. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FROPA...THE COLDER UPPER POOL WITH
THE TROUGH AND THE THAT LAST WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP THE CLOUDS AND THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS
WHICH THE BETTER PROBABILITIES WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
FURTHERMORE...LAKE ENHANCEMENT FROM LAKE ONTARIO WILL ALSO ASSIST
WITH DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS DELTA T/S CLIMB ABOVE 13C.

MONDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A RATHER BRISK AND COOL DAY WITH CLOUDS
AND THE CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS. THE HEART OF THE COLD POOL /AOA
0C H850/ WILL BE OVERHEAD COINCIDING WITH A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO PROVIDE GUSTS OVER 20KTS. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE ALMOST
15 DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY/S WITH MAINLY 50S ACROSS THE
TERRAIN AND MID-UPPER 60S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS MAY LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOCATIONS DOWNWIND OF THE CATSKILLS LIKELY
EXPERIENCING CLEARING SKIES INCLUDING EASTERN WINDHAM COUNTY OF
SOUTHERN VT. WITH THE LOSS THE SUNLIGHT...SHOWERS TOO SHOULD
DIMINISH WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING BACK TO THE MID-UPR 30S FOR
THE DACKS AND 40S ELSEWHERE /A REMINDER THAT THE GROWING SEASON
HAS ENDED ACROSS NORTHERN HERKIMER...HAMILTON...NORTHERN WARREN
COUNTIES/.

TUESDAY...MODEL TRENDS ARE FAVORING ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MIGRATING ACROSS THE REGION. FRONTOLYSIS WILL BE UNDERWAY AS THE
THERMAL COLUMN WILL BE WARMING THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING AS HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT. SO THERE WILL BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AS HIGH TEMPS ACHIEVE 65-70F FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS AND LOW-MID 60S FOR THE TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGING AT 500 HPA WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE ENTIRE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK. THE 00Z GEFS
SHOWS 500 HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OF 1-2 STD ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE IN
THE WEEK...WITH ANOMALIES OF 2-3 STD ABOVE NORMAL SITUATED JUST TO
OUR NORTHWEST...WHERE THE CORE OF WHERE THE WARMEST HEIGHTS WILL BE
SITUATED.

AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE STRONG SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTROL THE WEATHER THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK AS WELL. THE HIGH WILL
SLOWLY MOVE FROM OVER UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY TO OFF
THE COAST FOR THURS THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE ALLOW WILL
ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPS WILL
GRADUALLY WARM UP THROUGHOUT THE WEEK...WITH VALLEY HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 ON WED...LOW 70S ON THURS...AND MID 70S FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR EACH NIGHT...AND LOWS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S /SOME UPPER 30S OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN/.
MOST AREAS THAT STILL HAVE THE GROWING SEASON ONGOING LOOK TO AVOID
A FROST/FREEZE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOWER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL LOW CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...KPOU AND KPSF...ALONG WITH
SOME WEAK/LIGHT SHOWERS. CLOUDS ARE ADVANCING INTO THE NORTHWEST
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND
LOW. WHILE INBETWEEN CLOUDS COVER HAS BEEN RATHER MINIMAL AT KGFL
AND KALB.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE...HOWEVER MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
LINGER A BIT LONGER THIS AFTERNOON AT KPOU. CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE
INCREASE AND ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

THERE ARE A COUPLE LINES OF SHOWERS OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE FRONT
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK INTO PENNSYLVANIA. THESES LINES
WILL MOVE EASTWARD...HOWEVER THEY ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SO HAVE
ADDRESS THREAT WITH VCSH IN TAFS.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO GUSTY ESPECIALLY UP THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING THEN SHIFT
TO THE WEST WITH THE PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT TONIGHT. ONCE DAYTIME
MIXING STARTS THE WESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY.

OUTLOOK...
MON THROUGH THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE HIGH ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE
INCREASE PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS...SO EXPECT RH VALUES TO REMAIN
ABOVE 50 PERCENT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WE DRY OUT TUESDAY AS WE
BEGIN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER.

SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 20 MPH TODAY.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST TONIGHT THEN INCREASE IN GUST
MAGNITUDES ON MONDAY WELL OVER 20 MPH AT TIMES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH AND CROSS THE REGION TODAY
BRINGING SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL TO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO GENERALLY BE A TENTH TO A
THIRD OF AN INCH WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ACROSS
ADIRONDACKS.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/BGM
NEAR TERM...GJM/IAA/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM










000
FXUS61 KALY 211826
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
225 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE LAST OFFICIAL WEEKEND OF SUMMER WILL END ON A MILD NOTE. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BRINGING SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM TO THE AREA. COOLER
AND BRISK CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL RETURN
FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...MOST OF NEXT
WEEK LOOKS DRY...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES DURING THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK...THEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE LOCAL AREA IS LOCATED BETWEEN A COASTAL LOW LOCATED OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST AND A COLD FRONT/LOW APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
THE COASTAL LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD PASSING SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND WHILE THE COLD FRONT GRADUALLY EASTWARD TODAY AS THE LOW
MOVES ALONG THE BOUNDARY ALONG THE NY/CANADIAN BORDER. THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING.

THE COVERAGE OF EXPECTED PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA CONTINUES
TO BE A CHALLENGE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. WHILE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST CHANCES WILL BE
THE LOWEST. THERE IS STILL THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER CONTINUES TO HAVE SEE TEXT ACROSS THE REGION WITH US IN THE
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE WIND OUTLOOK. THEY DID PULL THE AREA OUT OF THE
HAIL OUTLOOK. GUIDANCE INDICATES MUCAPE IN THE MID HUNDREDS J/KG
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE GREATEST 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
LESSER VALUES AS YOU HEAD TO THE SOUTHEAST. THERE IS ONGONG
CONVECTION OCCURRING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NEW YORK. SLOWED TIMING OF CONVECTION ACROSS FORECAST
AREA.

WARMING UP NICELY AS THE STRATUS CLOUDS HAVE LIFTED AND BURN OFF
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THEY DO LINGER ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST BUT ARE LIFTING. ITS ALSO FEELS HUMID/MUGGY AS DEW
POINTS HAVE RISEN INTO 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
WERE MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS OUR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND COUNTIES
THIS EVENING WITH THE CONTINUE THREAT FOR SCT-BKN LINE OF
CONVECTION. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FROPA...THE COLDER UPPER POOL WITH
THE TROUGH AND THE THAT LAST WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP THE CLOUDS AND THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS
WHICH THE BETTER PROBABILITIES WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
FURTHERMORE...LAKE ENHANCEMENT FROM LAKE ONTARIO WILL ALSO ASSIST
WITH DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS DELTA T/S CLIMB ABOVE 13C.

MONDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A RATHER BRISK AND COOL DAY WITH CLOUDS
AND THE CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS. THE HEART OF THE COLD POOL /AOA
0C H850/ WILL BE OVERHEAD COINCIDING WITH A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO PROVIDE GUSTS OVER 20KTS. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE ALMOST
15 DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY/S WITH MAINLY 50S ACROSS THE
TERRAIN AND MID-UPPER 60S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS MAY LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOCATIONS DOWNWIND OF THE CATSKILLS LIKELY
EXPERIENCING CLEARING SKIES INCLUDING EASTERN WINDHAM COUNTY OF
SOUTHERN VT. WITH THE LOSS THE SUNLIGHT...SHOWERS TOO SHOULD
DIMINISH WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING BACK TO THE MID-UPR 30S FOR
THE DACKS AND 40S ELSEWHERE /A REMINDER THAT THE GROWING SEASON
HAS ENDED ACROSS NORTHERN HERKIMER...HAMILTON...NORTHERN WARREN
COUNTIES/.

TUESDAY...MODEL TRENDS ARE FAVORING ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MIGRATING ACROSS THE REGION. FRONTOLYSIS WILL BE UNDERWAY AS THE
THERMAL COLUMN WILL BE WARMING THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING AS HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT. SO THERE WILL BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AS HIGH TEMPS ACHIEVE 65-70F FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS AND LOW-MID 60S FOR THE TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGING AT 500 HPA WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE ENTIRE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK. THE 00Z GEFS
SHOWS 500 HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OF 1-2 STD ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE IN
THE WEEK...WITH ANOMALIES OF 2-3 STD ABOVE NORMAL SITUATED JUST TO
OUR NORTHWEST...WHERE THE CORE OF WHERE THE WARMEST HEIGHTS WILL BE
SITUATED.

AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE STRONG SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTROL THE WEATHER THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK AS WELL. THE HIGH WILL
SLOWLY MOVE FROM OVER UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY TO OFF
THE COAST FOR THURS THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE ALLOW WILL
ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPS WILL
GRADUALLY WARM UP THROUGHOUT THE WEEK...WITH VALLEY HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 ON WED...LOW 70S ON THURS...AND MID 70S FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR EACH NIGHT...AND LOWS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S /SOME UPPER 30S OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN/.
MOST AREAS THAT STILL HAVE THE GROWING SEASON ONGOING LOOK TO AVOID
A FROST/FREEZE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOWER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL LOW CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...KPOU AND KPSF...ALONG WITH
SOME WEAK/LIGHT SHOWERS. CLOUDS ARE ADVANCING INTO THE NORTHWEST
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND
LOW. WHILE INBETWEEN CLOUDS COVER HAS BEEN RATHER MINIMAL AT KGFL
AND KALB.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE...HOWEVER MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
LINGER A BIT LONGER THIS AFTERNOON AT KPOU. CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE
INCREASE AND ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

THERE ARE A COUPLE LINES OF SHOWERS OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE FRONT
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK INTO PENNSYLVANIA. THESES LINES
WILL MOVE EASTWARD...HOWEVER THEY ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SO HAVE
ADDRESS THREAT WITH VCSH IN TAFS.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO GUSTY ESPECIALLY UP THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING THEN SHIFT
TO THE WEST WITH THE PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT TONIGHT. ONCE DAYTIME
MIXING STARTS THE WESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY.

OUTLOOK...
MON THROUGH THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE HIGH ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE
INCREASE PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS...SO EXPECT RH VALUES TO REMAIN
ABOVE 50 PERCENT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WE DRY OUT TUESDAY AS WE
BEGIN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER.

SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 20 MPH TODAY.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST TONIGHT THEN INCREASE IN GUST
MAGNITUDES ON MONDAY WELL OVER 20 MPH AT TIMES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH AND CROSS THE REGION TODAY
BRINGING SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL TO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO GENERALLY BE A TENTH TO A
THIRD OF AN INCH WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ACROSS
ADIRONDACKS.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/BGM
NEAR TERM...GJM/IAA/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM










000
FXUS61 KALY 211826
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
225 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE LAST OFFICIAL WEEKEND OF SUMMER WILL END ON A MILD NOTE. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BRINGING SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM TO THE AREA. COOLER
AND BRISK CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL RETURN
FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...MOST OF NEXT
WEEK LOOKS DRY...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES DURING THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK...THEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE LOCAL AREA IS LOCATED BETWEEN A COASTAL LOW LOCATED OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST AND A COLD FRONT/LOW APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
THE COASTAL LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD PASSING SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND WHILE THE COLD FRONT GRADUALLY EASTWARD TODAY AS THE LOW
MOVES ALONG THE BOUNDARY ALONG THE NY/CANADIAN BORDER. THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING.

THE COVERAGE OF EXPECTED PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA CONTINUES
TO BE A CHALLENGE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. WHILE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST CHANCES WILL BE
THE LOWEST. THERE IS STILL THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER CONTINUES TO HAVE SEE TEXT ACROSS THE REGION WITH US IN THE
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE WIND OUTLOOK. THEY DID PULL THE AREA OUT OF THE
HAIL OUTLOOK. GUIDANCE INDICATES MUCAPE IN THE MID HUNDREDS J/KG
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE GREATEST 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
LESSER VALUES AS YOU HEAD TO THE SOUTHEAST. THERE IS ONGONG
CONVECTION OCCURRING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NEW YORK. SLOWED TIMING OF CONVECTION ACROSS FORECAST
AREA.

WARMING UP NICELY AS THE STRATUS CLOUDS HAVE LIFTED AND BURN OFF
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THEY DO LINGER ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST BUT ARE LIFTING. ITS ALSO FEELS HUMID/MUGGY AS DEW
POINTS HAVE RISEN INTO 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
WERE MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS OUR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND COUNTIES
THIS EVENING WITH THE CONTINUE THREAT FOR SCT-BKN LINE OF
CONVECTION. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FROPA...THE COLDER UPPER POOL WITH
THE TROUGH AND THE THAT LAST WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP THE CLOUDS AND THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS
WHICH THE BETTER PROBABILITIES WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
FURTHERMORE...LAKE ENHANCEMENT FROM LAKE ONTARIO WILL ALSO ASSIST
WITH DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS DELTA T/S CLIMB ABOVE 13C.

MONDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A RATHER BRISK AND COOL DAY WITH CLOUDS
AND THE CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS. THE HEART OF THE COLD POOL /AOA
0C H850/ WILL BE OVERHEAD COINCIDING WITH A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO PROVIDE GUSTS OVER 20KTS. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE ALMOST
15 DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY/S WITH MAINLY 50S ACROSS THE
TERRAIN AND MID-UPPER 60S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS MAY LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOCATIONS DOWNWIND OF THE CATSKILLS LIKELY
EXPERIENCING CLEARING SKIES INCLUDING EASTERN WINDHAM COUNTY OF
SOUTHERN VT. WITH THE LOSS THE SUNLIGHT...SHOWERS TOO SHOULD
DIMINISH WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING BACK TO THE MID-UPR 30S FOR
THE DACKS AND 40S ELSEWHERE /A REMINDER THAT THE GROWING SEASON
HAS ENDED ACROSS NORTHERN HERKIMER...HAMILTON...NORTHERN WARREN
COUNTIES/.

TUESDAY...MODEL TRENDS ARE FAVORING ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MIGRATING ACROSS THE REGION. FRONTOLYSIS WILL BE UNDERWAY AS THE
THERMAL COLUMN WILL BE WARMING THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING AS HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT. SO THERE WILL BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AS HIGH TEMPS ACHIEVE 65-70F FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS AND LOW-MID 60S FOR THE TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGING AT 500 HPA WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE ENTIRE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK. THE 00Z GEFS
SHOWS 500 HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OF 1-2 STD ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE IN
THE WEEK...WITH ANOMALIES OF 2-3 STD ABOVE NORMAL SITUATED JUST TO
OUR NORTHWEST...WHERE THE CORE OF WHERE THE WARMEST HEIGHTS WILL BE
SITUATED.

AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE STRONG SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTROL THE WEATHER THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK AS WELL. THE HIGH WILL
SLOWLY MOVE FROM OVER UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY TO OFF
THE COAST FOR THURS THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE ALLOW WILL
ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPS WILL
GRADUALLY WARM UP THROUGHOUT THE WEEK...WITH VALLEY HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 ON WED...LOW 70S ON THURS...AND MID 70S FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR EACH NIGHT...AND LOWS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S /SOME UPPER 30S OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN/.
MOST AREAS THAT STILL HAVE THE GROWING SEASON ONGOING LOOK TO AVOID
A FROST/FREEZE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOWER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL LOW CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...KPOU AND KPSF...ALONG WITH
SOME WEAK/LIGHT SHOWERS. CLOUDS ARE ADVANCING INTO THE NORTHWEST
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND
LOW. WHILE INBETWEEN CLOUDS COVER HAS BEEN RATHER MINIMAL AT KGFL
AND KALB.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE...HOWEVER MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
LINGER A BIT LONGER THIS AFTERNOON AT KPOU. CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE
INCREASE AND ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

THERE ARE A COUPLE LINES OF SHOWERS OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE FRONT
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK INTO PENNSYLVANIA. THESES LINES
WILL MOVE EASTWARD...HOWEVER THEY ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SO HAVE
ADDRESS THREAT WITH VCSH IN TAFS.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO GUSTY ESPECIALLY UP THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING THEN SHIFT
TO THE WEST WITH THE PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT TONIGHT. ONCE DAYTIME
MIXING STARTS THE WESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY.

OUTLOOK...
MON THROUGH THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE HIGH ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE
INCREASE PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS...SO EXPECT RH VALUES TO REMAIN
ABOVE 50 PERCENT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WE DRY OUT TUESDAY AS WE
BEGIN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER.

SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 20 MPH TODAY.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST TONIGHT THEN INCREASE IN GUST
MAGNITUDES ON MONDAY WELL OVER 20 MPH AT TIMES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH AND CROSS THE REGION TODAY
BRINGING SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL TO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO GENERALLY BE A TENTH TO A
THIRD OF AN INCH WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ACROSS
ADIRONDACKS.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/BGM
NEAR TERM...GJM/IAA/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM










000
FXUS61 KBOX 211806
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
205 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MUGGY CONDITIONS WITH A FEW HIT AND MISS SHOWERS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON IN MOST LOCALES...BUT A PERIOD OF RAIN IS LIKELY ACROSS
THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. DRIER
AND LESS HUMID WEATHER MONDAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEEK AHEAD...WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES THE FIRST HALF...AND WARMER TEMPS THE LATTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

205 PM UPDATE...

MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS ALLOWED
SCATTERED SMALL SHOWERS TO AFFECT THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
WHILE MOST OF THE TIME WAS DRY AT A GIVEN LOCATION...BRIEF SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION AT TIMES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON.

MEANWHILE...SURFACE LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND ITS SYNOPTIC
RAIN WAS WORKING ITS WAY NORTHEAST.  MOST OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS
NOW AGREE THAT A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN WILL AFFECT THE FAR SOUTHEAST
NEW ENGLAND COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO PART OF THE EVENING
HOURS.  NOT SURE HOW MUCH IF ANY RAIN WILL MAKE IT BACK ACROSS
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MA/SOUTHERN RI...BUT IF IT DOES SHOULD BE RATHER
SHORT LIVED.

AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S EVEN NEAR 80 IN A FEW
LOCALES.  DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S WILL RESULT IN MUGGY
CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...

NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS
MORNING ZIPS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO AREAL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED AND CONFINED TO THE INTERIOR.
OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY TONIGHT AND MILD AS FRONTAL PASSAGE DOESN/T
OCCUR UNTIL MONDAY MORNING.

MONDAY...

COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING WITH A SECONDARY
FRONT PASSING IN THE AFTERNOON. MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO JUST
EXPECTING SOME CLOUDS MIXING WITH THE SUNSHINE. STILL MILD AS COOLER
AIR DOESN`T ARRIVE UNTIL MON NIGHT. SO EXPECTING HIGHS MON WELL INTO
THE 70S INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS GIVEN WESTERLY WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE WEEK
* COOL TEMPERATURES THROUGH WED...MODERATING BY THE WEEKEND

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
21.00Z LONG RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM DESPITE THE VARIANCE IN OVERALL PATTERN
LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS VARIANCE IS APPARENT IN
TELECONNECTIONS...WHERE ALTHOUGH AO/NAO ARE POSITIVE...HOW
STRONGLY POSITIVE IT WILL BE REMAINS IN QUESTION. IN SPITE OF
THIS...FAIRLY LOCKED PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS IS FAVORED AS
CUTOFF LOW PRES/LONGWAVE TROF IN THE E GIVES WAY TO BUILDING
RIDGE. THIS RIDGE IS THE RESULT OF A COMBINATION OF A SRN STREAM
RIDGE CURRENTLY ACROSS THE SW/TEXAS WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH THE
PERSISTENT WRN ATLANTIC RIDGE. THEREFORE...AFTER A COOL AND
DIURNALLY CLOUDY START TO THE WEEK...A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY WX PREVAILS THANKS TO STRONG
1035+ HIGH PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. GIVEN
THE AGREEMENT HERE...A BLEND OF GUIDANCE WILL BE USED AS A
BASELINE.

DETAILS...

MON NIGHT INTO WED...
BAFFIN ISLAND CUTOFF IS CONNECTED TO LONGWAVE TROF WITH BASE
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE TO THE E THROUGH
THE EARLY HALF OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE PERSISTENT COOL
DRAW WITH N COMPONENT TO THE FLOW...SUSPECT THIS WILL BE THE
COOLEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL CLOUD
COVER UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO COOL
TUE AND MORESO ON WED THANKS TO A COOLER START. H85 TEMPS REMAIN
CLOSE TO +6C EACH DAY...SO NOT QUITE AS COLD AS THE LATE WEEK COOL
AIRMASS OF THIS PAST WEEK. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW-UPPER 60S EACH
DAY. REGARDING LOWS...TUE NIGHT IS LIKELY TO BE THE COOLER OF THE
TWO THANKS TO CENTER OF HIGH PRES MORE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD YIELDING
WEAK FLOW. ALTHOUGH WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING SOME FROST IS
POSSIBLE EITHER NIGHT IN THE COOLER VALLEYS PARTICULARLY IN NW MA
OR SW NH.

THU INTO THE WEEKEND...
HIGH PRES WILL BE SLOWLY CRESTING OVER THE REGION WITH TIME. LOW-
MID LVL HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE SUGGESTING INCREASING TEMPS
THROUGH THE COLUMN...THEREFORE...MODERATE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED EACH
DAY AS WELL. H85 TEMPS START ABOUT +9C THU...THEN MAY REACH
BETWEEN +12C AND +14C BY SUN. WITH MODERATION EACH DAY SUSPECT
THAT HIGHS WILL START NEAR NORMAL...INCREASING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY
THE WEEKEND...AT WHICH POINT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S FOR THE
WEEKEND.

FOR WHAT IT/S WORTH...EVEN THOUGH THE BLOCKING PATTERN SUGGESTS
THE DRY HIGH PRES AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES...THERE IS
AN INVERTED TROF IN THE MID ATLANTIC WITH HIGHER MOISTURE WHICH
MAY NEED TO BE WATCHED. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW AS A
DRY PATTERN SUCH AS THIS GENERALLY SUGGESTS POSITIVE
FEEDBACK...MAINTAINING ITSELF. HOWEVER...WITH THE VARIANCE EVIDENT
IN THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT LATE IN THE WEEK...MAY NEED TO
MONITOR THIS INVERTED TROF AND SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WHICH COULD
YIELD A CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM
BOTH THE GEFS AND ECENS DO BRING THIS TROF CLOSER TO NEW ENGLAND
THAN DO OTHER MEMBERS AND THE OPERATIONAL MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY MVFR
CIGS WERE DOMINATING AT MID AFTERNOON...BUT SOME IFR CONDITIONS WERE
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET.  MAY SEE CONDITIONS LOWER
TO IFR IN SOME LOCALES NEAR THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH
EARLY EVENING.  REST OF THE REGION SHOULD MAINLY BE MVFR.

TONIGHT...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  GUIDANCE SEEMS A BIT TOO
PESSIMISTIC ON CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES GIVEN WINDS SHIFTING TO MORE OF A
WESTERLY DIRECTION LATER THIS EVENING...ALBEIT LIGHT.  PATCHES OF
IFR CONDITIONS STILL LIKELY THOUGH...ESPECIALLY IF ANY PATCHY FOG
CAN DEVELOP.  WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS MOST LIKELY NEAR THE FAR
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.  AGAIN...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO
MODERATE SO LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS CLOSELY.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.  JUST A
LOW RISK FOR BRIEF MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE INTERIOR ON MONDAY AS
A DECK OF STRATO-CUMULUS CLOUDS MOVES INTO THE REGION.
OTHERWISE...GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS EXPECTED
DURING THE DAY MONDAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE TONIGHT WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON
MONDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE TONIGHT WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON
MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR DOMINATES THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW POCKETS
OF EARLY MORNING FOG AT TYPICALLY PRONE TERMINALS EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...

MODEST S-SE WINDS WITH HEAVY SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN WATERS. VSBY
REDUCED IN HEAVY RAIN AND PATCHY FOG.

TONIGHT...

SHOWERS DIMINISH. SEAS BUILD ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS THUS SCA IN
EFFECT. SSW WINDS SHIFT TO WEST TOWARD SUNRISE.

MONDAY...

WEST WINDS YIELD GOOD VSBY AND DRY WEATHER. HOWEVER SEAS REMAIN
ROUGH FROM LEFTOVER SOUTH SWELL COMBINED WITH DEVELOPING WEST WIND
WAVES.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

5-8 FT SEAS AND WINDS BOTH DIMINISH MON NIGHT...SUCH THAT SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY TO END. ALTHOUGH THE SWELL MAY LINGER
A BIT INTO TUE...EVEN THESE SHOULD DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS EARLY. OTHERWISE...MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD UNDER HIGH PRES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...FRANK/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY



000
FXUS61 KBOX 211806
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
205 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MUGGY CONDITIONS WITH A FEW HIT AND MISS SHOWERS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON IN MOST LOCALES...BUT A PERIOD OF RAIN IS LIKELY ACROSS
THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. DRIER
AND LESS HUMID WEATHER MONDAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEEK AHEAD...WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES THE FIRST HALF...AND WARMER TEMPS THE LATTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

205 PM UPDATE...

MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS ALLOWED
SCATTERED SMALL SHOWERS TO AFFECT THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
WHILE MOST OF THE TIME WAS DRY AT A GIVEN LOCATION...BRIEF SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION AT TIMES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON.

MEANWHILE...SURFACE LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND ITS SYNOPTIC
RAIN WAS WORKING ITS WAY NORTHEAST.  MOST OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS
NOW AGREE THAT A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN WILL AFFECT THE FAR SOUTHEAST
NEW ENGLAND COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO PART OF THE EVENING
HOURS.  NOT SURE HOW MUCH IF ANY RAIN WILL MAKE IT BACK ACROSS
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MA/SOUTHERN RI...BUT IF IT DOES SHOULD BE RATHER
SHORT LIVED.

AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S EVEN NEAR 80 IN A FEW
LOCALES.  DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S WILL RESULT IN MUGGY
CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...

NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS
MORNING ZIPS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO AREAL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED AND CONFINED TO THE INTERIOR.
OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY TONIGHT AND MILD AS FRONTAL PASSAGE DOESN/T
OCCUR UNTIL MONDAY MORNING.

MONDAY...

COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING WITH A SECONDARY
FRONT PASSING IN THE AFTERNOON. MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO JUST
EXPECTING SOME CLOUDS MIXING WITH THE SUNSHINE. STILL MILD AS COOLER
AIR DOESN`T ARRIVE UNTIL MON NIGHT. SO EXPECTING HIGHS MON WELL INTO
THE 70S INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS GIVEN WESTERLY WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE WEEK
* COOL TEMPERATURES THROUGH WED...MODERATING BY THE WEEKEND

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
21.00Z LONG RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM DESPITE THE VARIANCE IN OVERALL PATTERN
LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS VARIANCE IS APPARENT IN
TELECONNECTIONS...WHERE ALTHOUGH AO/NAO ARE POSITIVE...HOW
STRONGLY POSITIVE IT WILL BE REMAINS IN QUESTION. IN SPITE OF
THIS...FAIRLY LOCKED PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS IS FAVORED AS
CUTOFF LOW PRES/LONGWAVE TROF IN THE E GIVES WAY TO BUILDING
RIDGE. THIS RIDGE IS THE RESULT OF A COMBINATION OF A SRN STREAM
RIDGE CURRENTLY ACROSS THE SW/TEXAS WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH THE
PERSISTENT WRN ATLANTIC RIDGE. THEREFORE...AFTER A COOL AND
DIURNALLY CLOUDY START TO THE WEEK...A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY WX PREVAILS THANKS TO STRONG
1035+ HIGH PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. GIVEN
THE AGREEMENT HERE...A BLEND OF GUIDANCE WILL BE USED AS A
BASELINE.

DETAILS...

MON NIGHT INTO WED...
BAFFIN ISLAND CUTOFF IS CONNECTED TO LONGWAVE TROF WITH BASE
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE TO THE E THROUGH
THE EARLY HALF OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE PERSISTENT COOL
DRAW WITH N COMPONENT TO THE FLOW...SUSPECT THIS WILL BE THE
COOLEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL CLOUD
COVER UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO COOL
TUE AND MORESO ON WED THANKS TO A COOLER START. H85 TEMPS REMAIN
CLOSE TO +6C EACH DAY...SO NOT QUITE AS COLD AS THE LATE WEEK COOL
AIRMASS OF THIS PAST WEEK. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW-UPPER 60S EACH
DAY. REGARDING LOWS...TUE NIGHT IS LIKELY TO BE THE COOLER OF THE
TWO THANKS TO CENTER OF HIGH PRES MORE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD YIELDING
WEAK FLOW. ALTHOUGH WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING SOME FROST IS
POSSIBLE EITHER NIGHT IN THE COOLER VALLEYS PARTICULARLY IN NW MA
OR SW NH.

THU INTO THE WEEKEND...
HIGH PRES WILL BE SLOWLY CRESTING OVER THE REGION WITH TIME. LOW-
MID LVL HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE SUGGESTING INCREASING TEMPS
THROUGH THE COLUMN...THEREFORE...MODERATE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED EACH
DAY AS WELL. H85 TEMPS START ABOUT +9C THU...THEN MAY REACH
BETWEEN +12C AND +14C BY SUN. WITH MODERATION EACH DAY SUSPECT
THAT HIGHS WILL START NEAR NORMAL...INCREASING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY
THE WEEKEND...AT WHICH POINT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S FOR THE
WEEKEND.

FOR WHAT IT/S WORTH...EVEN THOUGH THE BLOCKING PATTERN SUGGESTS
THE DRY HIGH PRES AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES...THERE IS
AN INVERTED TROF IN THE MID ATLANTIC WITH HIGHER MOISTURE WHICH
MAY NEED TO BE WATCHED. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW AS A
DRY PATTERN SUCH AS THIS GENERALLY SUGGESTS POSITIVE
FEEDBACK...MAINTAINING ITSELF. HOWEVER...WITH THE VARIANCE EVIDENT
IN THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT LATE IN THE WEEK...MAY NEED TO
MONITOR THIS INVERTED TROF AND SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WHICH COULD
YIELD A CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM
BOTH THE GEFS AND ECENS DO BRING THIS TROF CLOSER TO NEW ENGLAND
THAN DO OTHER MEMBERS AND THE OPERATIONAL MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY MVFR
CIGS WERE DOMINATING AT MID AFTERNOON...BUT SOME IFR CONDITIONS WERE
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET.  MAY SEE CONDITIONS LOWER
TO IFR IN SOME LOCALES NEAR THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH
EARLY EVENING.  REST OF THE REGION SHOULD MAINLY BE MVFR.

TONIGHT...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  GUIDANCE SEEMS A BIT TOO
PESSIMISTIC ON CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES GIVEN WINDS SHIFTING TO MORE OF A
WESTERLY DIRECTION LATER THIS EVENING...ALBEIT LIGHT.  PATCHES OF
IFR CONDITIONS STILL LIKELY THOUGH...ESPECIALLY IF ANY PATCHY FOG
CAN DEVELOP.  WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS MOST LIKELY NEAR THE FAR
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.  AGAIN...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO
MODERATE SO LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS CLOSELY.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.  JUST A
LOW RISK FOR BRIEF MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE INTERIOR ON MONDAY AS
A DECK OF STRATO-CUMULUS CLOUDS MOVES INTO THE REGION.
OTHERWISE...GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS EXPECTED
DURING THE DAY MONDAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE TONIGHT WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON
MONDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE TONIGHT WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON
MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR DOMINATES THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW POCKETS
OF EARLY MORNING FOG AT TYPICALLY PRONE TERMINALS EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...

MODEST S-SE WINDS WITH HEAVY SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN WATERS. VSBY
REDUCED IN HEAVY RAIN AND PATCHY FOG.

TONIGHT...

SHOWERS DIMINISH. SEAS BUILD ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS THUS SCA IN
EFFECT. SSW WINDS SHIFT TO WEST TOWARD SUNRISE.

MONDAY...

WEST WINDS YIELD GOOD VSBY AND DRY WEATHER. HOWEVER SEAS REMAIN
ROUGH FROM LEFTOVER SOUTH SWELL COMBINED WITH DEVELOPING WEST WIND
WAVES.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

5-8 FT SEAS AND WINDS BOTH DIMINISH MON NIGHT...SUCH THAT SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY TO END. ALTHOUGH THE SWELL MAY LINGER
A BIT INTO TUE...EVEN THESE SHOULD DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS EARLY. OTHERWISE...MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD UNDER HIGH PRES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...FRANK/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KOKX 211630
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1230 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND THIS
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE TRI-STATE TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN
SLOWLY SLIDES OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE HIGH THEN
BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION TO CLOSE THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHRA HAVE FLARED BACK UP OVER SE CT ALONG AN OLD BOUNDARY. LINE OF
CONVECTION OVER WESTERN PA IS DISSIPATING AS IT HEADS EAST. BASED
ON THIS...TRENDED FORECAST TO DRY WEST WITH MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS EAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.

CIRRUS SHIELD HAS BLOWN OVER WESTERN ZONES WHERE THERE WAS SOME
CLEARING EARLIER...AND HOLES IN CLOUD COVER TO THE EAST HAVE
FILLED. LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS DO NOT SUPPORT IDEA OF MUCH...IF
ANY...IN THE WAY OF CLEARING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON OR SO. AS A
RESULT...HAVE LOWERED HIGHS TO AT MOST UPPER 70S DUE TO THE IMPACT
OF CLOUD COVER.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC OCEAN FACING
BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATING THE FRONT WILL COME THROUGH MOSTLY DRY. WILL KEEP SOME
CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH MIDNIGHT FROM WESTERN LONG ISLAND
AND WESTERN CT POINTS WEST. ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTION...THINKING
THE SHOWERS WILL NOT MAKE IT OUT THIS FAR. EXPECT CLEARING AFTER THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 55-60
INLAND...AND 60-65 IN NYC METRO AND ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT LIKELY JUST TO THE EAST OF
THE AREA. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST TO PASS EAST OF THE
AREA LATE MONDAY. AS OF NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH THE DRY FORECAST TO
START MONDAY WITH THE FRONT EAST OF THE REGION AND DOWNSLOPING
NORTHWESTERLY WIND AIDING IN DRYING THE LOWER LEVELS.

A STRONG RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
THE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE A
COOL CANADIAN AIR MASS BUILD IN MONDAY AND THEN REMAINS THROUGH
SATURDAY. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE COOLER THAN
NORMAL...THEN A WARMING TREND SETS UP FOR THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY AS THE AIR MASS MODIFIES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK COASTAL LOW WILL PASS TO THE SE THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THIS EVENING...AND PASS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.

IFR CIGS AT MOST TERMINALS FROM NYC METRO NORTH/WEST ARE SHOWING
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT...AND MOST SHOULD GO MVFR BY 16Z. KHPN STILL
LIFR AS OF 15Z AND WILL TAKE A LITTLE LONGER TO IMPROVE.
TERMINALS TO THE EAST HAVE BKN MVFR CIGS AS OF 15Z.

THIS AFTERNOON...BKN MVFR CIGS MAY TAKE UNTIL AT LEAST 18Z TO LIFT
TO VFR...AND EVEN THEN CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT MVFR CIGS HOLDING
ON LONGER INTO THE AFTERNOON THAN FCST. ISOLD TO WIDELY SCT
SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THAT COULD BRIEFLY IMPACT KISP/KGON.

THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT WESTERN
TERMINALS. ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN TERMINALS WITH
COLD FROPA. BRIEF MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT KISP/KBDR
THIS EVENING...AND LIKELY MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS AT KGON...UNTIL
COLD FROPA BETWEEN 04Z-08Z FROM WEST TO EAST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MON THROUGH THU...
.MON-MON NIGHT...VFR. NW WINDS G20KT POSSIBLE...BECOMING N
MON NIGHT.
.TUE-THU...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON.

SEAS BUILD TO AT LEAST 5 FT ON ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS TONIGHT
AND MONDAY DUE TO A COMBINATION OF INCREASING WINDS...AND FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANT SE SWELLS. HAVE CONTINUED WITH SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
THERE. ELSEWHERE WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH
TONIGHT.

SOME GUSTS DURING MONDAY ON ALL THE FORECAST WATERS MAY REACH
20-25 KT AT TIMES...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE
AN SCA AT THIS TIME.

WINDS DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT...BUT SWELLS COULD KEEP SEAS ON THE
COASTAL OCEAN WATERS AT SCA LEVELS. AFTER THAT...A RELAXED
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LESS THAN 1/4 INCH OF RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THERE
IS A DIMINISHING CHANCE OF -SHRA THIS EVENING...WITH LITTLE
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

IT SHOULD THEN BE DRY FROM MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING
     TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BC/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...GOODMAN/NV
MARINE...MALOIT/BC/MET
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/BC






000
FXUS61 KBOX 211538
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1137 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MUGGY CONDITIONS WITH A FEW HIT AND MISS SHOWERS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON IN MOST LOCALES...BUT A PERIOD OF RAIN IS LIKELY ACROSS
THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. DRIER
AND LESS HUMID WEATHER MONDAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEEK AHEAD...WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES THE FIRST HALF...AND WARMER TEMPS THE LATTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

1135 AM UPDATE...

A CLUSTER OF SMALL SHOWERS WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WERE BEGINNING
TO DEVELOP EAST OF THE CT RIVER.  THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY RIGHT NOW
WAS LOCATED ACROSS EASTERN CT.  THESE SHOWERS WERE BEING DRIVE BY
AFTERNOON INSTABILITY AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
CERTAINLY NOT EXPECTING THE ENTIRE AFTERNOON TO BE A WASHOUT...BUT
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL MAY AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE REGION AT TIMES.

THE OTHER AREA WE ARE WATCHING IS THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND
COAST...AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MOVES NORTHEAST.
WHILE LACK OF BAROCLINICITY WILL LIKELY KEEP MOST OF THE RAIN
OFFSHORE...APPEARS IT MAY CLIP THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST
FOR A FEW HOURS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.  THIS
IS MAINLY FOR THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET...BUT PERHAPS GETTING A BIT
FURTHER NORTHWEST FOR A SHORT TIME.

HIGH TEMPS WILL BE WELL INTO THE 70S ACROSS MOST AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS EASTERN MA WILL TOP OUT
AROUND 80.  DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S ARE BRINGING A MUGGY FEEL TO
THE AIR AND A RETURN TO MORE SUMMER LIKE WEATHER AFTER YESTERDAY/S
VERY CHILLY START.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...

NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS
MORNING ZIPS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO AREAL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED AND CONFINED TO THE INTERIOR.
OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY TONIGHT AND MILD AS FRONTAL PASSAGE DOESN/T
OCCUR UNTIL MONDAY MORNING.

MONDAY...

COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING WITH A SECONDARY
FRONT PASSING IN THE AFTERNOON. MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO JUST
EXPECTING SOME CLOUDS MIXING WITH THE SUNSHINE. STILL MILD AS COOLER
AIR DOESN`T ARRIVE UNTIL MON NIGHT. SO EXPECTING HIGHS MON WELL INTO
THE 70S INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS GIVEN WESTERLY WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE WEEK
* COOL TEMPERATURES THROUGH WED...MODERATING BY THE WEEKEND

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
21.00Z LONG RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM DESPITE THE VARIANCE IN OVERALL PATTERN
LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS VARIANCE IS APPARENT IN
TELECONNECTIONS...WHERE ALTHOUGH AO/NAO ARE POSITIVE...HOW
STRONGLY POSITIVE IT WILL BE REMAINS IN QUESTION. IN SPITE OF
THIS...FAIRLY LOCKED PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS IS FAVORED AS
CUTOFF LOW PRES/LONGWAVE TROF IN THE E GIVES WAY TO BUILDING
RIDGE. THIS RIDGE IS THE RESULT OF A COMBINATION OF A SRN STREAM
RIDGE CURRENTLY ACROSS THE SW/TEXAS WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH THE
PERSISTENT WRN ATLANTIC RIDGE. THEREFORE...AFTER A COOL AND
DIURNALLY CLOUDY START TO THE WEEK...A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY WX PREVAILS THANKS TO STRONG
1035+ HIGH PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. GIVEN
THE AGREEMENT HERE...A BLEND OF GUIDANCE WILL BE USED AS A
BASELINE.

DETAILS...

MON NIGHT INTO WED...
BAFFIN ISLAND CUTOFF IS CONNECTED TO LONGWAVE TROF WITH BASE
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE TO THE E THROUGH
THE EARLY HALF OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE PERSISTENT COOL
DRAW WITH N COMPONENT TO THE FLOW...SUSPECT THIS WILL BE THE
COOLEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL CLOUD
COVER UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO COOL
TUE AND MORESO ON WED THANKS TO A COOLER START. H85 TEMPS REMAIN
CLOSE TO +6C EACH DAY...SO NOT QUITE AS COLD AS THE LATE WEEK COOL
AIRMASS OF THIS PAST WEEK. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW-UPPER 60S EACH
DAY. REGARDING LOWS...TUE NIGHT IS LIKELY TO BE THE COOLER OF THE
TWO THANKS TO CENTER OF HIGH PRES MORE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD YIELDING
WEAK FLOW. ALTHOUGH WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING SOME FROST IS
POSSIBLE EITHER NIGHT IN THE COOLER VALLEYS PARTICULARLY IN NW MA
OR SW NH.

THU INTO THE WEEKEND...
HIGH PRES WILL BE SLOWLY CRESTING OVER THE REGION WITH TIME. LOW-
MID LVL HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE SUGGESTING INCREASING TEMPS
THROUGH THE COLUMN...THEREFORE...MODERATE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED EACH
DAY AS WELL. H85 TEMPS START ABOUT +9C THU...THEN MAY REACH
BETWEEN +12C AND +14C BY SUN. WITH MODERATION EACH DAY SUSPECT
THAT HIGHS WILL START NEAR NORMAL...INCREASING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY
THE WEEKEND...AT WHICH POINT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S FOR THE
WEEKEND.

FOR WHAT IT/S WORTH...EVEN THOUGH THE BLOCKING PATTERN SUGGESTS
THE DRY HIGH PRES AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES...THERE IS
AN INVERTED TROF IN THE MID ATLANTIC WITH HIGHER MOISTURE WHICH
MAY NEED TO BE WATCHED. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW AS A
DRY PATTERN SUCH AS THIS GENERALLY SUGGESTS POSITIVE
FEEDBACK...MAINTAINING ITSELF. HOWEVER...WITH THE VARIANCE EVIDENT
IN THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT LATE IN THE WEEK...MAY NEED TO
MONITOR THIS INVERTED TROF AND SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WHICH COULD
YIELD A CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM
BOTH THE GEFS AND ECENS DO BRING THIS TROF CLOSER TO NEW ENGLAND
THAN DO OTHER MEMBERS AND THE OPERATIONAL MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

12Z UPDATE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MIX OF MVFR/IFR IN A LINE FROM CT THROUGH CENTRAL AND WESTERN MA
INTO SRN NH. THIS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING UNTIL LEFTOVER
SHOWERS COME TO AN END. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH SOME LOW
CLOUDS MAY MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST MA LATE IN THE DAY.

TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT MVFR/IFR CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS
EARLY HALF OF THE NIGHT. CHANCE OF A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS
AROUND 06Z ESPECIALLY WESTERN- CENTRAL MA INTO NH.

MONDAY...VFR. MODEST W WIND. DRY RUNWAYS.

KBOS TERMINAL..MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF ON TIMING BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR DOMINATES THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW POCKETS
OF EARLY MORNING FOG AT TYPICALLY PRONE TERMINALS EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...

MODEST S-SE WINDS WITH HEAVY SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN WATERS. VSBY
REDUCED IN HEAVY RAIN AND PATCHY FOG.

TONIGHT...

SHOWERS DIMINISH. SEAS BUILD ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS THUS SCA IN
EFFECT. SSW WINDS SHIFT TO WEST TOWARD SUNRISE.

MONDAY...

WEST WINDS YIELD GOOD VSBY AND DRY WEATHER. HOWEVER SEAS REMAIN
ROUGH FROM LEFTOVER SOUTH SWELL COMBINED WITH DEVELOPING WEST WIND
WAVES.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

5-8 FT SEAS AND WINDS BOTH DIMINISH MON NIGHT...SUCH THAT SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY TO END. ALTHOUGH THE SWELL MAY LINGER
A BIT INTO TUE...EVEN THESE SHOULD DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS EARLY. OTHERWISE...MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD UNDER HIGH PRES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 211538
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1137 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MUGGY CONDITIONS WITH A FEW HIT AND MISS SHOWERS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON IN MOST LOCALES...BUT A PERIOD OF RAIN IS LIKELY ACROSS
THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. DRIER
AND LESS HUMID WEATHER MONDAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEEK AHEAD...WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES THE FIRST HALF...AND WARMER TEMPS THE LATTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

1135 AM UPDATE...

A CLUSTER OF SMALL SHOWERS WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WERE BEGINNING
TO DEVELOP EAST OF THE CT RIVER.  THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY RIGHT NOW
WAS LOCATED ACROSS EASTERN CT.  THESE SHOWERS WERE BEING DRIVE BY
AFTERNOON INSTABILITY AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
CERTAINLY NOT EXPECTING THE ENTIRE AFTERNOON TO BE A WASHOUT...BUT
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL MAY AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE REGION AT TIMES.

THE OTHER AREA WE ARE WATCHING IS THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND
COAST...AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MOVES NORTHEAST.
WHILE LACK OF BAROCLINICITY WILL LIKELY KEEP MOST OF THE RAIN
OFFSHORE...APPEARS IT MAY CLIP THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST
FOR A FEW HOURS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.  THIS
IS MAINLY FOR THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET...BUT PERHAPS GETTING A BIT
FURTHER NORTHWEST FOR A SHORT TIME.

HIGH TEMPS WILL BE WELL INTO THE 70S ACROSS MOST AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS EASTERN MA WILL TOP OUT
AROUND 80.  DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S ARE BRINGING A MUGGY FEEL TO
THE AIR AND A RETURN TO MORE SUMMER LIKE WEATHER AFTER YESTERDAY/S
VERY CHILLY START.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...

NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS
MORNING ZIPS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO AREAL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED AND CONFINED TO THE INTERIOR.
OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY TONIGHT AND MILD AS FRONTAL PASSAGE DOESN/T
OCCUR UNTIL MONDAY MORNING.

MONDAY...

COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING WITH A SECONDARY
FRONT PASSING IN THE AFTERNOON. MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO JUST
EXPECTING SOME CLOUDS MIXING WITH THE SUNSHINE. STILL MILD AS COOLER
AIR DOESN`T ARRIVE UNTIL MON NIGHT. SO EXPECTING HIGHS MON WELL INTO
THE 70S INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS GIVEN WESTERLY WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE WEEK
* COOL TEMPERATURES THROUGH WED...MODERATING BY THE WEEKEND

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
21.00Z LONG RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM DESPITE THE VARIANCE IN OVERALL PATTERN
LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS VARIANCE IS APPARENT IN
TELECONNECTIONS...WHERE ALTHOUGH AO/NAO ARE POSITIVE...HOW
STRONGLY POSITIVE IT WILL BE REMAINS IN QUESTION. IN SPITE OF
THIS...FAIRLY LOCKED PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS IS FAVORED AS
CUTOFF LOW PRES/LONGWAVE TROF IN THE E GIVES WAY TO BUILDING
RIDGE. THIS RIDGE IS THE RESULT OF A COMBINATION OF A SRN STREAM
RIDGE CURRENTLY ACROSS THE SW/TEXAS WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH THE
PERSISTENT WRN ATLANTIC RIDGE. THEREFORE...AFTER A COOL AND
DIURNALLY CLOUDY START TO THE WEEK...A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY WX PREVAILS THANKS TO STRONG
1035+ HIGH PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. GIVEN
THE AGREEMENT HERE...A BLEND OF GUIDANCE WILL BE USED AS A
BASELINE.

DETAILS...

MON NIGHT INTO WED...
BAFFIN ISLAND CUTOFF IS CONNECTED TO LONGWAVE TROF WITH BASE
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE TO THE E THROUGH
THE EARLY HALF OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE PERSISTENT COOL
DRAW WITH N COMPONENT TO THE FLOW...SUSPECT THIS WILL BE THE
COOLEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL CLOUD
COVER UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO COOL
TUE AND MORESO ON WED THANKS TO A COOLER START. H85 TEMPS REMAIN
CLOSE TO +6C EACH DAY...SO NOT QUITE AS COLD AS THE LATE WEEK COOL
AIRMASS OF THIS PAST WEEK. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW-UPPER 60S EACH
DAY. REGARDING LOWS...TUE NIGHT IS LIKELY TO BE THE COOLER OF THE
TWO THANKS TO CENTER OF HIGH PRES MORE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD YIELDING
WEAK FLOW. ALTHOUGH WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING SOME FROST IS
POSSIBLE EITHER NIGHT IN THE COOLER VALLEYS PARTICULARLY IN NW MA
OR SW NH.

THU INTO THE WEEKEND...
HIGH PRES WILL BE SLOWLY CRESTING OVER THE REGION WITH TIME. LOW-
MID LVL HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE SUGGESTING INCREASING TEMPS
THROUGH THE COLUMN...THEREFORE...MODERATE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED EACH
DAY AS WELL. H85 TEMPS START ABOUT +9C THU...THEN MAY REACH
BETWEEN +12C AND +14C BY SUN. WITH MODERATION EACH DAY SUSPECT
THAT HIGHS WILL START NEAR NORMAL...INCREASING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY
THE WEEKEND...AT WHICH POINT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S FOR THE
WEEKEND.

FOR WHAT IT/S WORTH...EVEN THOUGH THE BLOCKING PATTERN SUGGESTS
THE DRY HIGH PRES AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES...THERE IS
AN INVERTED TROF IN THE MID ATLANTIC WITH HIGHER MOISTURE WHICH
MAY NEED TO BE WATCHED. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW AS A
DRY PATTERN SUCH AS THIS GENERALLY SUGGESTS POSITIVE
FEEDBACK...MAINTAINING ITSELF. HOWEVER...WITH THE VARIANCE EVIDENT
IN THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT LATE IN THE WEEK...MAY NEED TO
MONITOR THIS INVERTED TROF AND SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WHICH COULD
YIELD A CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM
BOTH THE GEFS AND ECENS DO BRING THIS TROF CLOSER TO NEW ENGLAND
THAN DO OTHER MEMBERS AND THE OPERATIONAL MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

12Z UPDATE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MIX OF MVFR/IFR IN A LINE FROM CT THROUGH CENTRAL AND WESTERN MA
INTO SRN NH. THIS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING UNTIL LEFTOVER
SHOWERS COME TO AN END. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH SOME LOW
CLOUDS MAY MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST MA LATE IN THE DAY.

TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT MVFR/IFR CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS
EARLY HALF OF THE NIGHT. CHANCE OF A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS
AROUND 06Z ESPECIALLY WESTERN- CENTRAL MA INTO NH.

MONDAY...VFR. MODEST W WIND. DRY RUNWAYS.

KBOS TERMINAL..MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF ON TIMING BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR DOMINATES THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW POCKETS
OF EARLY MORNING FOG AT TYPICALLY PRONE TERMINALS EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...

MODEST S-SE WINDS WITH HEAVY SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN WATERS. VSBY
REDUCED IN HEAVY RAIN AND PATCHY FOG.

TONIGHT...

SHOWERS DIMINISH. SEAS BUILD ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS THUS SCA IN
EFFECT. SSW WINDS SHIFT TO WEST TOWARD SUNRISE.

MONDAY...

WEST WINDS YIELD GOOD VSBY AND DRY WEATHER. HOWEVER SEAS REMAIN
ROUGH FROM LEFTOVER SOUTH SWELL COMBINED WITH DEVELOPING WEST WIND
WAVES.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

5-8 FT SEAS AND WINDS BOTH DIMINISH MON NIGHT...SUCH THAT SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY TO END. ALTHOUGH THE SWELL MAY LINGER
A BIT INTO TUE...EVEN THESE SHOULD DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS EARLY. OTHERWISE...MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD UNDER HIGH PRES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 211538
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1137 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MUGGY CONDITIONS WITH A FEW HIT AND MISS SHOWERS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON IN MOST LOCALES...BUT A PERIOD OF RAIN IS LIKELY ACROSS
THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. DRIER
AND LESS HUMID WEATHER MONDAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEEK AHEAD...WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES THE FIRST HALF...AND WARMER TEMPS THE LATTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

1135 AM UPDATE...

A CLUSTER OF SMALL SHOWERS WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WERE BEGINNING
TO DEVELOP EAST OF THE CT RIVER.  THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY RIGHT NOW
WAS LOCATED ACROSS EASTERN CT.  THESE SHOWERS WERE BEING DRIVE BY
AFTERNOON INSTABILITY AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
CERTAINLY NOT EXPECTING THE ENTIRE AFTERNOON TO BE A WASHOUT...BUT
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL MAY AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE REGION AT TIMES.

THE OTHER AREA WE ARE WATCHING IS THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND
COAST...AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MOVES NORTHEAST.
WHILE LACK OF BAROCLINICITY WILL LIKELY KEEP MOST OF THE RAIN
OFFSHORE...APPEARS IT MAY CLIP THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST
FOR A FEW HOURS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.  THIS
IS MAINLY FOR THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET...BUT PERHAPS GETTING A BIT
FURTHER NORTHWEST FOR A SHORT TIME.

HIGH TEMPS WILL BE WELL INTO THE 70S ACROSS MOST AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS EASTERN MA WILL TOP OUT
AROUND 80.  DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S ARE BRINGING A MUGGY FEEL TO
THE AIR AND A RETURN TO MORE SUMMER LIKE WEATHER AFTER YESTERDAY/S
VERY CHILLY START.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...

NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS
MORNING ZIPS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO AREAL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED AND CONFINED TO THE INTERIOR.
OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY TONIGHT AND MILD AS FRONTAL PASSAGE DOESN/T
OCCUR UNTIL MONDAY MORNING.

MONDAY...

COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING WITH A SECONDARY
FRONT PASSING IN THE AFTERNOON. MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO JUST
EXPECTING SOME CLOUDS MIXING WITH THE SUNSHINE. STILL MILD AS COOLER
AIR DOESN`T ARRIVE UNTIL MON NIGHT. SO EXPECTING HIGHS MON WELL INTO
THE 70S INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS GIVEN WESTERLY WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE WEEK
* COOL TEMPERATURES THROUGH WED...MODERATING BY THE WEEKEND

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
21.00Z LONG RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM DESPITE THE VARIANCE IN OVERALL PATTERN
LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS VARIANCE IS APPARENT IN
TELECONNECTIONS...WHERE ALTHOUGH AO/NAO ARE POSITIVE...HOW
STRONGLY POSITIVE IT WILL BE REMAINS IN QUESTION. IN SPITE OF
THIS...FAIRLY LOCKED PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS IS FAVORED AS
CUTOFF LOW PRES/LONGWAVE TROF IN THE E GIVES WAY TO BUILDING
RIDGE. THIS RIDGE IS THE RESULT OF A COMBINATION OF A SRN STREAM
RIDGE CURRENTLY ACROSS THE SW/TEXAS WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH THE
PERSISTENT WRN ATLANTIC RIDGE. THEREFORE...AFTER A COOL AND
DIURNALLY CLOUDY START TO THE WEEK...A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY WX PREVAILS THANKS TO STRONG
1035+ HIGH PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. GIVEN
THE AGREEMENT HERE...A BLEND OF GUIDANCE WILL BE USED AS A
BASELINE.

DETAILS...

MON NIGHT INTO WED...
BAFFIN ISLAND CUTOFF IS CONNECTED TO LONGWAVE TROF WITH BASE
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE TO THE E THROUGH
THE EARLY HALF OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE PERSISTENT COOL
DRAW WITH N COMPONENT TO THE FLOW...SUSPECT THIS WILL BE THE
COOLEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL CLOUD
COVER UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO COOL
TUE AND MORESO ON WED THANKS TO A COOLER START. H85 TEMPS REMAIN
CLOSE TO +6C EACH DAY...SO NOT QUITE AS COLD AS THE LATE WEEK COOL
AIRMASS OF THIS PAST WEEK. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW-UPPER 60S EACH
DAY. REGARDING LOWS...TUE NIGHT IS LIKELY TO BE THE COOLER OF THE
TWO THANKS TO CENTER OF HIGH PRES MORE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD YIELDING
WEAK FLOW. ALTHOUGH WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING SOME FROST IS
POSSIBLE EITHER NIGHT IN THE COOLER VALLEYS PARTICULARLY IN NW MA
OR SW NH.

THU INTO THE WEEKEND...
HIGH PRES WILL BE SLOWLY CRESTING OVER THE REGION WITH TIME. LOW-
MID LVL HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE SUGGESTING INCREASING TEMPS
THROUGH THE COLUMN...THEREFORE...MODERATE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED EACH
DAY AS WELL. H85 TEMPS START ABOUT +9C THU...THEN MAY REACH
BETWEEN +12C AND +14C BY SUN. WITH MODERATION EACH DAY SUSPECT
THAT HIGHS WILL START NEAR NORMAL...INCREASING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY
THE WEEKEND...AT WHICH POINT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S FOR THE
WEEKEND.

FOR WHAT IT/S WORTH...EVEN THOUGH THE BLOCKING PATTERN SUGGESTS
THE DRY HIGH PRES AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES...THERE IS
AN INVERTED TROF IN THE MID ATLANTIC WITH HIGHER MOISTURE WHICH
MAY NEED TO BE WATCHED. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW AS A
DRY PATTERN SUCH AS THIS GENERALLY SUGGESTS POSITIVE
FEEDBACK...MAINTAINING ITSELF. HOWEVER...WITH THE VARIANCE EVIDENT
IN THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT LATE IN THE WEEK...MAY NEED TO
MONITOR THIS INVERTED TROF AND SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WHICH COULD
YIELD A CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM
BOTH THE GEFS AND ECENS DO BRING THIS TROF CLOSER TO NEW ENGLAND
THAN DO OTHER MEMBERS AND THE OPERATIONAL MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

12Z UPDATE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MIX OF MVFR/IFR IN A LINE FROM CT THROUGH CENTRAL AND WESTERN MA
INTO SRN NH. THIS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING UNTIL LEFTOVER
SHOWERS COME TO AN END. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH SOME LOW
CLOUDS MAY MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST MA LATE IN THE DAY.

TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT MVFR/IFR CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS
EARLY HALF OF THE NIGHT. CHANCE OF A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS
AROUND 06Z ESPECIALLY WESTERN- CENTRAL MA INTO NH.

MONDAY...VFR. MODEST W WIND. DRY RUNWAYS.

KBOS TERMINAL..MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF ON TIMING BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR DOMINATES THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW POCKETS
OF EARLY MORNING FOG AT TYPICALLY PRONE TERMINALS EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...

MODEST S-SE WINDS WITH HEAVY SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN WATERS. VSBY
REDUCED IN HEAVY RAIN AND PATCHY FOG.

TONIGHT...

SHOWERS DIMINISH. SEAS BUILD ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS THUS SCA IN
EFFECT. SSW WINDS SHIFT TO WEST TOWARD SUNRISE.

MONDAY...

WEST WINDS YIELD GOOD VSBY AND DRY WEATHER. HOWEVER SEAS REMAIN
ROUGH FROM LEFTOVER SOUTH SWELL COMBINED WITH DEVELOPING WEST WIND
WAVES.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

5-8 FT SEAS AND WINDS BOTH DIMINISH MON NIGHT...SUCH THAT SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY TO END. ALTHOUGH THE SWELL MAY LINGER
A BIT INTO TUE...EVEN THESE SHOULD DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS EARLY. OTHERWISE...MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD UNDER HIGH PRES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 211538
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1137 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MUGGY CONDITIONS WITH A FEW HIT AND MISS SHOWERS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON IN MOST LOCALES...BUT A PERIOD OF RAIN IS LIKELY ACROSS
THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. DRIER
AND LESS HUMID WEATHER MONDAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEEK AHEAD...WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES THE FIRST HALF...AND WARMER TEMPS THE LATTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

1135 AM UPDATE...

A CLUSTER OF SMALL SHOWERS WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WERE BEGINNING
TO DEVELOP EAST OF THE CT RIVER.  THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY RIGHT NOW
WAS LOCATED ACROSS EASTERN CT.  THESE SHOWERS WERE BEING DRIVE BY
AFTERNOON INSTABILITY AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
CERTAINLY NOT EXPECTING THE ENTIRE AFTERNOON TO BE A WASHOUT...BUT
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL MAY AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE REGION AT TIMES.

THE OTHER AREA WE ARE WATCHING IS THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND
COAST...AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MOVES NORTHEAST.
WHILE LACK OF BAROCLINICITY WILL LIKELY KEEP MOST OF THE RAIN
OFFSHORE...APPEARS IT MAY CLIP THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST
FOR A FEW HOURS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.  THIS
IS MAINLY FOR THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET...BUT PERHAPS GETTING A BIT
FURTHER NORTHWEST FOR A SHORT TIME.

HIGH TEMPS WILL BE WELL INTO THE 70S ACROSS MOST AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS EASTERN MA WILL TOP OUT
AROUND 80.  DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S ARE BRINGING A MUGGY FEEL TO
THE AIR AND A RETURN TO MORE SUMMER LIKE WEATHER AFTER YESTERDAY/S
VERY CHILLY START.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...

NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS
MORNING ZIPS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO AREAL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED AND CONFINED TO THE INTERIOR.
OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY TONIGHT AND MILD AS FRONTAL PASSAGE DOESN/T
OCCUR UNTIL MONDAY MORNING.

MONDAY...

COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING WITH A SECONDARY
FRONT PASSING IN THE AFTERNOON. MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO JUST
EXPECTING SOME CLOUDS MIXING WITH THE SUNSHINE. STILL MILD AS COOLER
AIR DOESN`T ARRIVE UNTIL MON NIGHT. SO EXPECTING HIGHS MON WELL INTO
THE 70S INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS GIVEN WESTERLY WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE WEEK
* COOL TEMPERATURES THROUGH WED...MODERATING BY THE WEEKEND

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
21.00Z LONG RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM DESPITE THE VARIANCE IN OVERALL PATTERN
LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS VARIANCE IS APPARENT IN
TELECONNECTIONS...WHERE ALTHOUGH AO/NAO ARE POSITIVE...HOW
STRONGLY POSITIVE IT WILL BE REMAINS IN QUESTION. IN SPITE OF
THIS...FAIRLY LOCKED PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS IS FAVORED AS
CUTOFF LOW PRES/LONGWAVE TROF IN THE E GIVES WAY TO BUILDING
RIDGE. THIS RIDGE IS THE RESULT OF A COMBINATION OF A SRN STREAM
RIDGE CURRENTLY ACROSS THE SW/TEXAS WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH THE
PERSISTENT WRN ATLANTIC RIDGE. THEREFORE...AFTER A COOL AND
DIURNALLY CLOUDY START TO THE WEEK...A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY WX PREVAILS THANKS TO STRONG
1035+ HIGH PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. GIVEN
THE AGREEMENT HERE...A BLEND OF GUIDANCE WILL BE USED AS A
BASELINE.

DETAILS...

MON NIGHT INTO WED...
BAFFIN ISLAND CUTOFF IS CONNECTED TO LONGWAVE TROF WITH BASE
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE TO THE E THROUGH
THE EARLY HALF OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE PERSISTENT COOL
DRAW WITH N COMPONENT TO THE FLOW...SUSPECT THIS WILL BE THE
COOLEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL CLOUD
COVER UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO COOL
TUE AND MORESO ON WED THANKS TO A COOLER START. H85 TEMPS REMAIN
CLOSE TO +6C EACH DAY...SO NOT QUITE AS COLD AS THE LATE WEEK COOL
AIRMASS OF THIS PAST WEEK. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW-UPPER 60S EACH
DAY. REGARDING LOWS...TUE NIGHT IS LIKELY TO BE THE COOLER OF THE
TWO THANKS TO CENTER OF HIGH PRES MORE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD YIELDING
WEAK FLOW. ALTHOUGH WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING SOME FROST IS
POSSIBLE EITHER NIGHT IN THE COOLER VALLEYS PARTICULARLY IN NW MA
OR SW NH.

THU INTO THE WEEKEND...
HIGH PRES WILL BE SLOWLY CRESTING OVER THE REGION WITH TIME. LOW-
MID LVL HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE SUGGESTING INCREASING TEMPS
THROUGH THE COLUMN...THEREFORE...MODERATE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED EACH
DAY AS WELL. H85 TEMPS START ABOUT +9C THU...THEN MAY REACH
BETWEEN +12C AND +14C BY SUN. WITH MODERATION EACH DAY SUSPECT
THAT HIGHS WILL START NEAR NORMAL...INCREASING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY
THE WEEKEND...AT WHICH POINT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S FOR THE
WEEKEND.

FOR WHAT IT/S WORTH...EVEN THOUGH THE BLOCKING PATTERN SUGGESTS
THE DRY HIGH PRES AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES...THERE IS
AN INVERTED TROF IN THE MID ATLANTIC WITH HIGHER MOISTURE WHICH
MAY NEED TO BE WATCHED. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW AS A
DRY PATTERN SUCH AS THIS GENERALLY SUGGESTS POSITIVE
FEEDBACK...MAINTAINING ITSELF. HOWEVER...WITH THE VARIANCE EVIDENT
IN THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT LATE IN THE WEEK...MAY NEED TO
MONITOR THIS INVERTED TROF AND SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WHICH COULD
YIELD A CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM
BOTH THE GEFS AND ECENS DO BRING THIS TROF CLOSER TO NEW ENGLAND
THAN DO OTHER MEMBERS AND THE OPERATIONAL MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

12Z UPDATE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MIX OF MVFR/IFR IN A LINE FROM CT THROUGH CENTRAL AND WESTERN MA
INTO SRN NH. THIS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING UNTIL LEFTOVER
SHOWERS COME TO AN END. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH SOME LOW
CLOUDS MAY MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST MA LATE IN THE DAY.

TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT MVFR/IFR CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS
EARLY HALF OF THE NIGHT. CHANCE OF A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS
AROUND 06Z ESPECIALLY WESTERN- CENTRAL MA INTO NH.

MONDAY...VFR. MODEST W WIND. DRY RUNWAYS.

KBOS TERMINAL..MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF ON TIMING BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR DOMINATES THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW POCKETS
OF EARLY MORNING FOG AT TYPICALLY PRONE TERMINALS EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...

MODEST S-SE WINDS WITH HEAVY SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN WATERS. VSBY
REDUCED IN HEAVY RAIN AND PATCHY FOG.

TONIGHT...

SHOWERS DIMINISH. SEAS BUILD ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS THUS SCA IN
EFFECT. SSW WINDS SHIFT TO WEST TOWARD SUNRISE.

MONDAY...

WEST WINDS YIELD GOOD VSBY AND DRY WEATHER. HOWEVER SEAS REMAIN
ROUGH FROM LEFTOVER SOUTH SWELL COMBINED WITH DEVELOPING WEST WIND
WAVES.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

5-8 FT SEAS AND WINDS BOTH DIMINISH MON NIGHT...SUCH THAT SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY TO END. ALTHOUGH THE SWELL MAY LINGER
A BIT INTO TUE...EVEN THESE SHOULD DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS EARLY. OTHERWISE...MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD UNDER HIGH PRES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KALY 211517
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1117 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE LAST OFFICIAL WEEKEND OF SUMMER WILL END ON A MILD NOTE. A
COLD FRONT WILL ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BRINGING SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM TO THE AREA.
COOLER AND BRISK CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
WILL RETURN FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOOKING FURTHER
AHEAD...MOST OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS DRY...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...THEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE LOCAL AREA IS LOCATED BETWEEN A COASTAL LOW LOCATED OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST AND A COLD FRONT/LOW APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
THE COASTAL LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD PASSING SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND WHILE THE COLD FRONT GRADUALLY EASTWARD TODAY AS THE LOW
MOVES ALONG THE BOUNDARY ALONG THE NY/CANADIAN BORDER. THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING.

THE COVERAGE OF EXPECTED PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA CONTINUES
TO BE A CHALLENGE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. WHILE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST CHANCES WILL BE
THE LOWEST. THERE IS STILL THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER CONTINUES TO HAVE SEE TEXT ACROSS THE REGION WITH US IN THE
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE WIND OUTLOOK. THEY DID PULL THE AREA OUT OF THE
HAIL OUTLOOK. GUIDANCE INDICATES MUCAPE IN THE MID HUNDREDS J/KG
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE GREATEST 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
LESSER VALUES AS YOU HEAD TO THE SOUTHEAST. THERE IS ONGONG
CONVECTION OCCURRING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NEW YORK. SLOWED TIMING OF CONVECTION ACROSS FORECAST
AREA.

WARMING UP NICELY AS THE STRATUS CLOUDS HAVE LIFTED AND BURN OFF
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THEY DO LINGER ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST BUT ARE LIFTING. ITS ALSO FEELS HUMID/MUGGY AS DEW
POINTS HAVE RISEN INTO 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
WERE MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS OUR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND COUNTIES
THIS EVENING WITH THE CONTINUE THREAT FOR SCT-BKN LINE OF
CONVECTION. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FROPA...THE COLDER UPPER POOL WITH
THE TROUGH AND THE THAT LAST WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP THE CLOUDS AND THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS
WHICH THE BETTER PROBABILITIES WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
FURTHERMORE...LAKE ENHANCEMENT FROM LAKE ONTARIO WILL ALSO ASSIST
WITH DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS DELTA T/S CLIMB ABOVE 13C.

MONDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A RATHER BRISK AND COOL DAY WITH CLOUDS
AND THE CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS. THE HEART OF THE COLD POOL /AOA
0C H850/ WILL BE OVERHEAD COINCIDING WITH A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO PROVIDE GUSTS OVER 20KTS. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE ALMOST
15 DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY/S WITH MAINLY 50S ACROSS THE
TERRAIN AND MID-UPPER 60S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS MAY LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOCATIONS DOWNWIND OF THE CATSKILLS LIKELY
EXPERIENCING CLEARING SKIES INCLUDING EASTERN WINDHAM COUNTY OF
SOUTHERN VT. WITH THE LOSS THE SUNLIGHT...SHOWERS TOO SHOULD
DIMINISH WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING BACK TO THE MID-UPR 30S FOR
THE DACKS AND 40S ELSEWHERE /A REMINDER THAT THE GROWING SEASON
HAS ENDED ACROSS NORTHERN HERKIMER...HAMILTON...NORTHERN WARREN
COUNTIES/.

TUESDAY...MODEL TRENDS ARE FAVORING ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MIGRATING ACROSS THE REGION. FRONTOLYSIS WILL BE UNDERWAY AS THE
THERMAL COLUMN WILL BE WARMING THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING AS HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT. SO THERE WILL BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AS HIGH TEMPS ACHIEVE 65-70F FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS AND LOW-MID 60S FOR THE TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGING AT 500 HPA WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE ENTIRE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK. THE 00Z GEFS
SHOWS 500 HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OF 1-2 STD ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE IN
THE WEEK...WITH ANOMALIES OF 2-3 STD ABOVE NORMAL SITUATED JUST TO
OUR NORTHWEST...WHERE THE CORE OF WHERE THE WARMEST HEIGHTS WILL BE
SITUATED.

AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE STRONG SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTROL THE WEATHER THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK AS WELL. THE HIGH WILL
SLOWLY MOVE FROM OVER UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY TO OFF
THE COAST FOR THURS THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE ALLOW WILL
ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPS WILL
GRADUALLY WARM UP THROUGHOUT THE WEEK...WITH VALLEY HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 ON WED...LOW 70S ON THURS...AND MID 70S FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR EACH NIGHT...AND LOWS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S /SOME UPPER 30S OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN/.
MOST AREAS THAT STILL HAVE THE GROWING SEASON ONGOING LOOK TO AVOID
A FROST/FREEZE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW STRATUS HAVE LIFTED/ERODE EXCEPT FOR KPOU WHERE IT LINGERS
BUT IS LIFTING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH DAYTIME MIXING
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LATE IN THE DAY WILL ALLOW FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS...ESP
FOR KGFL...AND A RETURN TO BKN-OVC LOWER CIGS. FLYING CONDITIONS
MAY DROP TO MVFR WITHIN THE PASSING RAIN SHOWERS. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHC FOR THUNDER AS WELL...BUT THE PROBABILITY OF THIS
OCCURRING IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.

BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT OF THE VALLEY TERMINALS
DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS...BUT LINGERING LOW CLOUDS UPSLOPING
THE TERRAIN MAY ALLOW FOR LOWER CIGS/VSBYS AT KPSF FOR OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. SOME MIST MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE NIGHT...ESP AT
KGFL/KPSF...ALTHOUGH THE EXTENT OF THIS WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON
HOW MUCH RAINFALL OCCURS AND HOW QUICKLY IT CLEAR OUT BEHIND THE
FRONT. FOR NOW...WILL ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS/CIGS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE HIGH ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE
INCREASE PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS...SO EXPECT RH VALUES TO REMAIN
ABOVE 50 PERCENT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WE DRY OUT TUESDAY AS WE
BEGIN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER.

SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 20 MPH TODAY.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST TONIGHT THEN INCREASE IN GUST
MAGNITUDES ON MONDAY WELL OVER 20 MPH AT TIMES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH AND CROSS THE REGION TODAY
BRINGING SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL TO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO GENERALLY BE A TENTH TO A
THIRD OF AN INCH WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ACROSS
ADIRONDACKS.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/BGM
NEAR TERM...IAA/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...IAA/FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM








000
FXUS61 KALY 211517
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1117 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE LAST OFFICIAL WEEKEND OF SUMMER WILL END ON A MILD NOTE. A
COLD FRONT WILL ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BRINGING SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM TO THE AREA.
COOLER AND BRISK CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
WILL RETURN FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOOKING FURTHER
AHEAD...MOST OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS DRY...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...THEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE LOCAL AREA IS LOCATED BETWEEN A COASTAL LOW LOCATED OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST AND A COLD FRONT/LOW APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
THE COASTAL LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD PASSING SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND WHILE THE COLD FRONT GRADUALLY EASTWARD TODAY AS THE LOW
MOVES ALONG THE BOUNDARY ALONG THE NY/CANADIAN BORDER. THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING.

THE COVERAGE OF EXPECTED PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA CONTINUES
TO BE A CHALLENGE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. WHILE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST CHANCES WILL BE
THE LOWEST. THERE IS STILL THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER CONTINUES TO HAVE SEE TEXT ACROSS THE REGION WITH US IN THE
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE WIND OUTLOOK. THEY DID PULL THE AREA OUT OF THE
HAIL OUTLOOK. GUIDANCE INDICATES MUCAPE IN THE MID HUNDREDS J/KG
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE GREATEST 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
LESSER VALUES AS YOU HEAD TO THE SOUTHEAST. THERE IS ONGONG
CONVECTION OCCURRING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NEW YORK. SLOWED TIMING OF CONVECTION ACROSS FORECAST
AREA.

WARMING UP NICELY AS THE STRATUS CLOUDS HAVE LIFTED AND BURN OFF
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THEY DO LINGER ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST BUT ARE LIFTING. ITS ALSO FEELS HUMID/MUGGY AS DEW
POINTS HAVE RISEN INTO 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
WERE MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS OUR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND COUNTIES
THIS EVENING WITH THE CONTINUE THREAT FOR SCT-BKN LINE OF
CONVECTION. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FROPA...THE COLDER UPPER POOL WITH
THE TROUGH AND THE THAT LAST WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP THE CLOUDS AND THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS
WHICH THE BETTER PROBABILITIES WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
FURTHERMORE...LAKE ENHANCEMENT FROM LAKE ONTARIO WILL ALSO ASSIST
WITH DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS DELTA T/S CLIMB ABOVE 13C.

MONDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A RATHER BRISK AND COOL DAY WITH CLOUDS
AND THE CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS. THE HEART OF THE COLD POOL /AOA
0C H850/ WILL BE OVERHEAD COINCIDING WITH A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO PROVIDE GUSTS OVER 20KTS. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE ALMOST
15 DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY/S WITH MAINLY 50S ACROSS THE
TERRAIN AND MID-UPPER 60S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS MAY LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOCATIONS DOWNWIND OF THE CATSKILLS LIKELY
EXPERIENCING CLEARING SKIES INCLUDING EASTERN WINDHAM COUNTY OF
SOUTHERN VT. WITH THE LOSS THE SUNLIGHT...SHOWERS TOO SHOULD
DIMINISH WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING BACK TO THE MID-UPR 30S FOR
THE DACKS AND 40S ELSEWHERE /A REMINDER THAT THE GROWING SEASON
HAS ENDED ACROSS NORTHERN HERKIMER...HAMILTON...NORTHERN WARREN
COUNTIES/.

TUESDAY...MODEL TRENDS ARE FAVORING ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MIGRATING ACROSS THE REGION. FRONTOLYSIS WILL BE UNDERWAY AS THE
THERMAL COLUMN WILL BE WARMING THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING AS HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT. SO THERE WILL BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AS HIGH TEMPS ACHIEVE 65-70F FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS AND LOW-MID 60S FOR THE TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGING AT 500 HPA WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE ENTIRE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK. THE 00Z GEFS
SHOWS 500 HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OF 1-2 STD ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE IN
THE WEEK...WITH ANOMALIES OF 2-3 STD ABOVE NORMAL SITUATED JUST TO
OUR NORTHWEST...WHERE THE CORE OF WHERE THE WARMEST HEIGHTS WILL BE
SITUATED.

AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE STRONG SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTROL THE WEATHER THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK AS WELL. THE HIGH WILL
SLOWLY MOVE FROM OVER UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY TO OFF
THE COAST FOR THURS THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE ALLOW WILL
ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPS WILL
GRADUALLY WARM UP THROUGHOUT THE WEEK...WITH VALLEY HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 ON WED...LOW 70S ON THURS...AND MID 70S FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR EACH NIGHT...AND LOWS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S /SOME UPPER 30S OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN/.
MOST AREAS THAT STILL HAVE THE GROWING SEASON ONGOING LOOK TO AVOID
A FROST/FREEZE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW STRATUS HAVE LIFTED/ERODE EXCEPT FOR KPOU WHERE IT LINGERS
BUT IS LIFTING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH DAYTIME MIXING
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LATE IN THE DAY WILL ALLOW FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS...ESP
FOR KGFL...AND A RETURN TO BKN-OVC LOWER CIGS. FLYING CONDITIONS
MAY DROP TO MVFR WITHIN THE PASSING RAIN SHOWERS. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHC FOR THUNDER AS WELL...BUT THE PROBABILITY OF THIS
OCCURRING IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.

BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT OF THE VALLEY TERMINALS
DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS...BUT LINGERING LOW CLOUDS UPSLOPING
THE TERRAIN MAY ALLOW FOR LOWER CIGS/VSBYS AT KPSF FOR OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. SOME MIST MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE NIGHT...ESP AT
KGFL/KPSF...ALTHOUGH THE EXTENT OF THIS WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON
HOW MUCH RAINFALL OCCURS AND HOW QUICKLY IT CLEAR OUT BEHIND THE
FRONT. FOR NOW...WILL ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS/CIGS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE HIGH ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE
INCREASE PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS...SO EXPECT RH VALUES TO REMAIN
ABOVE 50 PERCENT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WE DRY OUT TUESDAY AS WE
BEGIN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER.

SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 20 MPH TODAY.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST TONIGHT THEN INCREASE IN GUST
MAGNITUDES ON MONDAY WELL OVER 20 MPH AT TIMES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH AND CROSS THE REGION TODAY
BRINGING SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL TO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO GENERALLY BE A TENTH TO A
THIRD OF AN INCH WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ACROSS
ADIRONDACKS.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/BGM
NEAR TERM...IAA/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...IAA/FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM








000
FXUS61 KALY 211517
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1117 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE LAST OFFICIAL WEEKEND OF SUMMER WILL END ON A MILD NOTE. A
COLD FRONT WILL ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BRINGING SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM TO THE AREA.
COOLER AND BRISK CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
WILL RETURN FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOOKING FURTHER
AHEAD...MOST OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS DRY...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...THEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE LOCAL AREA IS LOCATED BETWEEN A COASTAL LOW LOCATED OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST AND A COLD FRONT/LOW APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
THE COASTAL LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD PASSING SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND WHILE THE COLD FRONT GRADUALLY EASTWARD TODAY AS THE LOW
MOVES ALONG THE BOUNDARY ALONG THE NY/CANADIAN BORDER. THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING.

THE COVERAGE OF EXPECTED PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA CONTINUES
TO BE A CHALLENGE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. WHILE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST CHANCES WILL BE
THE LOWEST. THERE IS STILL THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER CONTINUES TO HAVE SEE TEXT ACROSS THE REGION WITH US IN THE
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE WIND OUTLOOK. THEY DID PULL THE AREA OUT OF THE
HAIL OUTLOOK. GUIDANCE INDICATES MUCAPE IN THE MID HUNDREDS J/KG
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE GREATEST 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
LESSER VALUES AS YOU HEAD TO THE SOUTHEAST. THERE IS ONGONG
CONVECTION OCCURRING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NEW YORK. SLOWED TIMING OF CONVECTION ACROSS FORECAST
AREA.

WARMING UP NICELY AS THE STRATUS CLOUDS HAVE LIFTED AND BURN OFF
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THEY DO LINGER ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST BUT ARE LIFTING. ITS ALSO FEELS HUMID/MUGGY AS DEW
POINTS HAVE RISEN INTO 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
WERE MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS OUR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND COUNTIES
THIS EVENING WITH THE CONTINUE THREAT FOR SCT-BKN LINE OF
CONVECTION. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FROPA...THE COLDER UPPER POOL WITH
THE TROUGH AND THE THAT LAST WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP THE CLOUDS AND THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS
WHICH THE BETTER PROBABILITIES WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
FURTHERMORE...LAKE ENHANCEMENT FROM LAKE ONTARIO WILL ALSO ASSIST
WITH DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS DELTA T/S CLIMB ABOVE 13C.

MONDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A RATHER BRISK AND COOL DAY WITH CLOUDS
AND THE CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS. THE HEART OF THE COLD POOL /AOA
0C H850/ WILL BE OVERHEAD COINCIDING WITH A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO PROVIDE GUSTS OVER 20KTS. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE ALMOST
15 DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY/S WITH MAINLY 50S ACROSS THE
TERRAIN AND MID-UPPER 60S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS MAY LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOCATIONS DOWNWIND OF THE CATSKILLS LIKELY
EXPERIENCING CLEARING SKIES INCLUDING EASTERN WINDHAM COUNTY OF
SOUTHERN VT. WITH THE LOSS THE SUNLIGHT...SHOWERS TOO SHOULD
DIMINISH WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING BACK TO THE MID-UPR 30S FOR
THE DACKS AND 40S ELSEWHERE /A REMINDER THAT THE GROWING SEASON
HAS ENDED ACROSS NORTHERN HERKIMER...HAMILTON...NORTHERN WARREN
COUNTIES/.

TUESDAY...MODEL TRENDS ARE FAVORING ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MIGRATING ACROSS THE REGION. FRONTOLYSIS WILL BE UNDERWAY AS THE
THERMAL COLUMN WILL BE WARMING THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING AS HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT. SO THERE WILL BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AS HIGH TEMPS ACHIEVE 65-70F FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS AND LOW-MID 60S FOR THE TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGING AT 500 HPA WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE ENTIRE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK. THE 00Z GEFS
SHOWS 500 HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OF 1-2 STD ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE IN
THE WEEK...WITH ANOMALIES OF 2-3 STD ABOVE NORMAL SITUATED JUST TO
OUR NORTHWEST...WHERE THE CORE OF WHERE THE WARMEST HEIGHTS WILL BE
SITUATED.

AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE STRONG SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTROL THE WEATHER THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK AS WELL. THE HIGH WILL
SLOWLY MOVE FROM OVER UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY TO OFF
THE COAST FOR THURS THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE ALLOW WILL
ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPS WILL
GRADUALLY WARM UP THROUGHOUT THE WEEK...WITH VALLEY HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 ON WED...LOW 70S ON THURS...AND MID 70S FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR EACH NIGHT...AND LOWS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S /SOME UPPER 30S OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN/.
MOST AREAS THAT STILL HAVE THE GROWING SEASON ONGOING LOOK TO AVOID
A FROST/FREEZE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW STRATUS HAVE LIFTED/ERODE EXCEPT FOR KPOU WHERE IT LINGERS
BUT IS LIFTING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH DAYTIME MIXING
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LATE IN THE DAY WILL ALLOW FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS...ESP
FOR KGFL...AND A RETURN TO BKN-OVC LOWER CIGS. FLYING CONDITIONS
MAY DROP TO MVFR WITHIN THE PASSING RAIN SHOWERS. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHC FOR THUNDER AS WELL...BUT THE PROBABILITY OF THIS
OCCURRING IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.

BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT OF THE VALLEY TERMINALS
DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS...BUT LINGERING LOW CLOUDS UPSLOPING
THE TERRAIN MAY ALLOW FOR LOWER CIGS/VSBYS AT KPSF FOR OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. SOME MIST MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE NIGHT...ESP AT
KGFL/KPSF...ALTHOUGH THE EXTENT OF THIS WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON
HOW MUCH RAINFALL OCCURS AND HOW QUICKLY IT CLEAR OUT BEHIND THE
FRONT. FOR NOW...WILL ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS/CIGS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE HIGH ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE
INCREASE PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS...SO EXPECT RH VALUES TO REMAIN
ABOVE 50 PERCENT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WE DRY OUT TUESDAY AS WE
BEGIN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER.

SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 20 MPH TODAY.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST TONIGHT THEN INCREASE IN GUST
MAGNITUDES ON MONDAY WELL OVER 20 MPH AT TIMES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH AND CROSS THE REGION TODAY
BRINGING SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL TO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO GENERALLY BE A TENTH TO A
THIRD OF AN INCH WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ACROSS
ADIRONDACKS.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/BGM
NEAR TERM...IAA/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...IAA/FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM








000
FXUS61 KALY 211517
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1117 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE LAST OFFICIAL WEEKEND OF SUMMER WILL END ON A MILD NOTE. A
COLD FRONT WILL ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BRINGING SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM TO THE AREA.
COOLER AND BRISK CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
WILL RETURN FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOOKING FURTHER
AHEAD...MOST OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS DRY...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...THEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE LOCAL AREA IS LOCATED BETWEEN A COASTAL LOW LOCATED OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST AND A COLD FRONT/LOW APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
THE COASTAL LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD PASSING SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND WHILE THE COLD FRONT GRADUALLY EASTWARD TODAY AS THE LOW
MOVES ALONG THE BOUNDARY ALONG THE NY/CANADIAN BORDER. THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING.

THE COVERAGE OF EXPECTED PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA CONTINUES
TO BE A CHALLENGE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. WHILE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST CHANCES WILL BE
THE LOWEST. THERE IS STILL THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER CONTINUES TO HAVE SEE TEXT ACROSS THE REGION WITH US IN THE
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE WIND OUTLOOK. THEY DID PULL THE AREA OUT OF THE
HAIL OUTLOOK. GUIDANCE INDICATES MUCAPE IN THE MID HUNDREDS J/KG
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE GREATEST 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
LESSER VALUES AS YOU HEAD TO THE SOUTHEAST. THERE IS ONGONG
CONVECTION OCCURRING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NEW YORK. SLOWED TIMING OF CONVECTION ACROSS FORECAST
AREA.

WARMING UP NICELY AS THE STRATUS CLOUDS HAVE LIFTED AND BURN OFF
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THEY DO LINGER ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST BUT ARE LIFTING. ITS ALSO FEELS HUMID/MUGGY AS DEW
POINTS HAVE RISEN INTO 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
WERE MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS OUR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND COUNTIES
THIS EVENING WITH THE CONTINUE THREAT FOR SCT-BKN LINE OF
CONVECTION. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FROPA...THE COLDER UPPER POOL WITH
THE TROUGH AND THE THAT LAST WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP THE CLOUDS AND THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS
WHICH THE BETTER PROBABILITIES WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
FURTHERMORE...LAKE ENHANCEMENT FROM LAKE ONTARIO WILL ALSO ASSIST
WITH DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS DELTA T/S CLIMB ABOVE 13C.

MONDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A RATHER BRISK AND COOL DAY WITH CLOUDS
AND THE CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS. THE HEART OF THE COLD POOL /AOA
0C H850/ WILL BE OVERHEAD COINCIDING WITH A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO PROVIDE GUSTS OVER 20KTS. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE ALMOST
15 DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY/S WITH MAINLY 50S ACROSS THE
TERRAIN AND MID-UPPER 60S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS MAY LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOCATIONS DOWNWIND OF THE CATSKILLS LIKELY
EXPERIENCING CLEARING SKIES INCLUDING EASTERN WINDHAM COUNTY OF
SOUTHERN VT. WITH THE LOSS THE SUNLIGHT...SHOWERS TOO SHOULD
DIMINISH WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING BACK TO THE MID-UPR 30S FOR
THE DACKS AND 40S ELSEWHERE /A REMINDER THAT THE GROWING SEASON
HAS ENDED ACROSS NORTHERN HERKIMER...HAMILTON...NORTHERN WARREN
COUNTIES/.

TUESDAY...MODEL TRENDS ARE FAVORING ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MIGRATING ACROSS THE REGION. FRONTOLYSIS WILL BE UNDERWAY AS THE
THERMAL COLUMN WILL BE WARMING THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING AS HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT. SO THERE WILL BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AS HIGH TEMPS ACHIEVE 65-70F FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS AND LOW-MID 60S FOR THE TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGING AT 500 HPA WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE ENTIRE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK. THE 00Z GEFS
SHOWS 500 HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OF 1-2 STD ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE IN
THE WEEK...WITH ANOMALIES OF 2-3 STD ABOVE NORMAL SITUATED JUST TO
OUR NORTHWEST...WHERE THE CORE OF WHERE THE WARMEST HEIGHTS WILL BE
SITUATED.

AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE STRONG SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTROL THE WEATHER THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK AS WELL. THE HIGH WILL
SLOWLY MOVE FROM OVER UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY TO OFF
THE COAST FOR THURS THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE ALLOW WILL
ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPS WILL
GRADUALLY WARM UP THROUGHOUT THE WEEK...WITH VALLEY HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 ON WED...LOW 70S ON THURS...AND MID 70S FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR EACH NIGHT...AND LOWS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S /SOME UPPER 30S OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN/.
MOST AREAS THAT STILL HAVE THE GROWING SEASON ONGOING LOOK TO AVOID
A FROST/FREEZE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW STRATUS HAVE LIFTED/ERODE EXCEPT FOR KPOU WHERE IT LINGERS
BUT IS LIFTING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH DAYTIME MIXING
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LATE IN THE DAY WILL ALLOW FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS...ESP
FOR KGFL...AND A RETURN TO BKN-OVC LOWER CIGS. FLYING CONDITIONS
MAY DROP TO MVFR WITHIN THE PASSING RAIN SHOWERS. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHC FOR THUNDER AS WELL...BUT THE PROBABILITY OF THIS
OCCURRING IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.

BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT OF THE VALLEY TERMINALS
DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS...BUT LINGERING LOW CLOUDS UPSLOPING
THE TERRAIN MAY ALLOW FOR LOWER CIGS/VSBYS AT KPSF FOR OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. SOME MIST MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE NIGHT...ESP AT
KGFL/KPSF...ALTHOUGH THE EXTENT OF THIS WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON
HOW MUCH RAINFALL OCCURS AND HOW QUICKLY IT CLEAR OUT BEHIND THE
FRONT. FOR NOW...WILL ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS/CIGS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE HIGH ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE
INCREASE PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS...SO EXPECT RH VALUES TO REMAIN
ABOVE 50 PERCENT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WE DRY OUT TUESDAY AS WE
BEGIN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER.

SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 20 MPH TODAY.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST TONIGHT THEN INCREASE IN GUST
MAGNITUDES ON MONDAY WELL OVER 20 MPH AT TIMES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH AND CROSS THE REGION TODAY
BRINGING SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL TO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO GENERALLY BE A TENTH TO A
THIRD OF AN INCH WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ACROSS
ADIRONDACKS.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/BGM
NEAR TERM...IAA/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...IAA/FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM








000
FXUS61 KOKX 211509
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1109 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND THIS
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE TRI-STATE TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN
SLOWLY SLIDES OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE HIGH THEN
BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION TO CLOSE THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-SHRA HAVE DISSIPATED THIS MORNING DUE TO NEGATIVE VORTICITY
ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH 700 AND 500 HPA VORTICITY MINIMA MOVING
IN FROM THE W-SW.

ASSUMING LINE OF CONVECTION OVER W CENTRAL NY/PA HOLDS
TOGETHER...IT TIMES INTO FAR WESTERN ZONES BY 4 PM AT THE
EARLIEST. SO HAVE SOME SUGGESTION THAT REMAINDER OF TODAY COULD
END UP FAIRLY DRY. HOWEVER...MESOSCALE MODELS DO SHOW A WEAK
700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE LIFTS THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON...SO DID
LEAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR THE AFTERNOON...GENERALLY IN
LINE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. HOWEVER...IF PRESENT TRENDS
HOLD...WILL BE CHANGING TO A DRY FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH
NEXT UPDATE AROUND NOON.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S
IN MANY PLACES EXCEPT FAR EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND FAR SE CT WHERE
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL BE SLOWER TO DEPART...AND IN THE HIGHER
INTERIOR ELEVATIONS.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC OCEAN FACING
BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATING THE FRONT WILL COME THROUGH MOSTLY DRY. WILL KEEP SOME
CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH MIDNIGHT FROM WESTERN LONG ISLAND
AND WESTERN CT POINTS WEST. ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTION...THINKING
THE SHOWERS WILL NOT MAKE IT OUT THIS FAR. EXPECT CLEARING AFTER THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 55-60
INLAND...AND 60-65 IN NYC METRO AND ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT LIKELY JUST TO THE EAST OF
THE AREA. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST TO PASS EAST OF THE
AREA LATE MONDAY. AS OF NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH THE DRY FORECAST TO
START MONDAY WITH THE FRONT EAST OF THE REGION AND DOWNSLOPING
NORTHWESTERLY WIND AIDING IN DRYING THE LOWER LEVELS.

A STRONG RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
THE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE A
COOL CANADIAN AIR MASS BUILD IN MONDAY AND THEN REMAINS THROUGH
SATURDAY. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE COOLER THAN
NORMAL...THEN A WARMING TREND SETS UP FOR THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY AS THE AIR MASS MODIFIES.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK COASTAL LOW WILL PASS TO THE SE THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THIS EVENING...AND PASS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.

IFR CIGS AT MOST TERMINALS FROM NYC METRO NORTH/WEST ARE SHOWING
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT...AND MOST SHOULD GO MVFR BY 16Z. KHPN STILL
LIFR AS OF 15Z AND WILL TAKE A LITTLE LONGER TO IMPROVE.
TERMINALS TO THE EAST HAVE BKN MVFR CIGS AS OF 15Z.

THIS AFTERNOON...BKN MVFR CIGS MAY TAKE UNTIL AT LEAST 18Z TO LIFT
TO VFR...AND EVEN THEN CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT MVFR CIGS HOLDING
ON LONGER INTO THE AFTERNOON THAN FCST. ISOLD TO WIDELY SCT
SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THAT COULD BRIEFLY IMPACT KISP/KGON.

THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT WESTERN
TERMINALS. ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN TERMINALS WITH
COLD FROPA. BRIEF MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT KISP/KBDR
THIS EVENING...AND LIKELY MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS AT KGON...UNTIL
COLD FROPA BETWEEN 04Z-08Z FROM WEST TO EAST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MON THROUGH THU...
.MON-MON NIGHT...VFR. NW WINDS G20KT POSSIBLE...BECOMING N
MON NIGHT.
.TUE-THU...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS OF 5 FT HAVE NOT MATERIALIZED ON THE OCEAN WATERS...SO HAVE
DROPPED THE SCA FOR TODAY...BUT HAVE LEFT UP ON THE COASTAL OCEAN
WATERS FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

SEAS BUILD TO AT LEAST 5 FT ON ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS TONIGHT
AND MONDAY DUE TO A COMBINATION OF INCREASING WINDS...AND FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANT SE SWELLS. ELSEWHERE WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SCA
LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT.

SOME GUSTS DURING MONDAY ON ALL THE FORECAST WATERS MAY REACH
20-25 KT AT TIMES...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE
AN SCA AT THIS TIME.

WINDS DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT...BUT SWELLS COULD KEEP SEAS ON THE
COASTAL OCEAN WATERS AT SCA LEVELS. AFTER THAT...A RELAXED
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...


LESS THAN 1/4 INCH OF RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THERE
IS A DIMINISHING CHANCE OF -SHRA THIS EVENING...WITH LITTLE
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

IT SHOULD THEN BE DRY MON THROUGH SAT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING
     TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BC/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/BC
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...GOODMAN/NV
MARINE...MALOIT/BC/MET
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/BC






000
FXUS61 KOKX 211509
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1109 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND THIS
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE TRI-STATE TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN
SLOWLY SLIDES OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE HIGH THEN
BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION TO CLOSE THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-SHRA HAVE DISSIPATED THIS MORNING DUE TO NEGATIVE VORTICITY
ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH 700 AND 500 HPA VORTICITY MINIMA MOVING
IN FROM THE W-SW.

ASSUMING LINE OF CONVECTION OVER W CENTRAL NY/PA HOLDS
TOGETHER...IT TIMES INTO FAR WESTERN ZONES BY 4 PM AT THE
EARLIEST. SO HAVE SOME SUGGESTION THAT REMAINDER OF TODAY COULD
END UP FAIRLY DRY. HOWEVER...MESOSCALE MODELS DO SHOW A WEAK
700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE LIFTS THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON...SO DID
LEAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR THE AFTERNOON...GENERALLY IN
LINE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. HOWEVER...IF PRESENT TRENDS
HOLD...WILL BE CHANGING TO A DRY FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH
NEXT UPDATE AROUND NOON.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S
IN MANY PLACES EXCEPT FAR EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND FAR SE CT WHERE
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL BE SLOWER TO DEPART...AND IN THE HIGHER
INTERIOR ELEVATIONS.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC OCEAN FACING
BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATING THE FRONT WILL COME THROUGH MOSTLY DRY. WILL KEEP SOME
CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH MIDNIGHT FROM WESTERN LONG ISLAND
AND WESTERN CT POINTS WEST. ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTION...THINKING
THE SHOWERS WILL NOT MAKE IT OUT THIS FAR. EXPECT CLEARING AFTER THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 55-60
INLAND...AND 60-65 IN NYC METRO AND ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT LIKELY JUST TO THE EAST OF
THE AREA. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST TO PASS EAST OF THE
AREA LATE MONDAY. AS OF NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH THE DRY FORECAST TO
START MONDAY WITH THE FRONT EAST OF THE REGION AND DOWNSLOPING
NORTHWESTERLY WIND AIDING IN DRYING THE LOWER LEVELS.

A STRONG RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
THE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE A
COOL CANADIAN AIR MASS BUILD IN MONDAY AND THEN REMAINS THROUGH
SATURDAY. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE COOLER THAN
NORMAL...THEN A WARMING TREND SETS UP FOR THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY AS THE AIR MASS MODIFIES.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK COASTAL LOW WILL PASS TO THE SE THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THIS EVENING...AND PASS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.

IFR CIGS AT MOST TERMINALS FROM NYC METRO NORTH/WEST ARE SHOWING
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT...AND MOST SHOULD GO MVFR BY 16Z. KHPN STILL
LIFR AS OF 15Z AND WILL TAKE A LITTLE LONGER TO IMPROVE.
TERMINALS TO THE EAST HAVE BKN MVFR CIGS AS OF 15Z.

THIS AFTERNOON...BKN MVFR CIGS MAY TAKE UNTIL AT LEAST 18Z TO LIFT
TO VFR...AND EVEN THEN CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT MVFR CIGS HOLDING
ON LONGER INTO THE AFTERNOON THAN FCST. ISOLD TO WIDELY SCT
SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THAT COULD BRIEFLY IMPACT KISP/KGON.

THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT WESTERN
TERMINALS. ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN TERMINALS WITH
COLD FROPA. BRIEF MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT KISP/KBDR
THIS EVENING...AND LIKELY MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS AT KGON...UNTIL
COLD FROPA BETWEEN 04Z-08Z FROM WEST TO EAST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MON THROUGH THU...
.MON-MON NIGHT...VFR. NW WINDS G20KT POSSIBLE...BECOMING N
MON NIGHT.
.TUE-THU...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS OF 5 FT HAVE NOT MATERIALIZED ON THE OCEAN WATERS...SO HAVE
DROPPED THE SCA FOR TODAY...BUT HAVE LEFT UP ON THE COASTAL OCEAN
WATERS FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

SEAS BUILD TO AT LEAST 5 FT ON ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS TONIGHT
AND MONDAY DUE TO A COMBINATION OF INCREASING WINDS...AND FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANT SE SWELLS. ELSEWHERE WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SCA
LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT.

SOME GUSTS DURING MONDAY ON ALL THE FORECAST WATERS MAY REACH
20-25 KT AT TIMES...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE
AN SCA AT THIS TIME.

WINDS DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT...BUT SWELLS COULD KEEP SEAS ON THE
COASTAL OCEAN WATERS AT SCA LEVELS. AFTER THAT...A RELAXED
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...


LESS THAN 1/4 INCH OF RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THERE
IS A DIMINISHING CHANCE OF -SHRA THIS EVENING...WITH LITTLE
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

IT SHOULD THEN BE DRY MON THROUGH SAT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING
     TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BC/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/BC
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...GOODMAN/NV
MARINE...MALOIT/BC/MET
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/BC







000
FXUS61 KBOX 211455
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1055 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

MUGGY CONDITIONS WITH A FEW HIT AND MISS SHOWERS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON IN MOST LOCALES...BUT A PERIOD OF RAIN IS LIKELY ACROSS
THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. DRIER
AND LESS HUMID WEATHER MONDAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEEK AHEAD...WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES THE FIRST HALF...AND WARMER TEMPS THE LATTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

1055 AM UPDATE...

A SMALL CLUSTER OF SHOWERS WERE STILL OCCURRING ACROSS SOUTHERN
NH/NORTH CENTRAL MA AT LATE MORNING.  THE REST OF THE REGION WAS DRY
WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS...BUT THERE STILL WERE PEEKS OF SUN
AT TIMES ACROSS EASTERN MA/RHODE ISLAND.

FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...MOST OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY IN A GIVEN
LOCATION.  HOWEVER...ENOUGH HEATING/INSTABILITY MAY TRIGGER A FEW
POP UP SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  AGAIN...NOT
EXPECTING ANY THUNDER THOUGH AND THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME WILL BE
DRY.

THE OTHER AREA WE ARE WATCHING IS THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND
COAST...AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MOVES NORTHEAST.
WHILE LACK OF BAROCLINICITY WILL LIKELY KEEP MOST OF THE RAIN
OFFSHORE...APPEARS IT MAY CLIP THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST
FOR A FEW HOURS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.  THIS
IS MAINLY FOR THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET...BUT PERHAPS GETTING A BIT
FURTHER NORTHWEST FOR A SHORT TIME.

HIGH TEMPS WILL BE WELL INTO THE 70S ACROSS MOST AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT MAY SEE A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MA
TOUCH 80.  DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S ARE BRINGING A MUGGY FEEL TO
THE AIR AND A RETURN TO MORE SUMMER LIKE WEATHER AFTER YESTERDAY/S
VERY CHILLY START.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...

TONIGHT...

NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS
MORNING ZIPS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO AREAL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED AND CONFINED TO THE INTERIOR.
OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY TONIGHT AND MILD AS FRONTAL PASSAGE DOESN/T
OCCUR UNTIL MONDAY MORNING.

MONDAY...

COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING WITH A SECONDARY
FRONT PASSING IN THE AFTERNOON. MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO JUST
EXPECTING SOME CLOUDS MIXING WITH THE SUNSHINE. STILL MILD AS COOLER
AIR DOESN`T ARRIVE UNTIL MON NIGHT. SO EXPECTING HIGHS MON WELL INTO
THE 70S INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS GIVEN WESTERLY WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE WEEK
* COOL TEMPERATURES THROUGH WED...MODERATING BY THE WEEKEND

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
21.00Z LONG RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM DESPITE THE VARIANCE IN OVERALL PATTERN
LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS VARIANCE IS APPARENT IN
TELECONNECTIONS...WHERE ALTHOUGH AO/NAO ARE POSITIVE...HOW
STRONGLY POSITIVE IT WILL BE REMAINS IN QUESTION. IN SPITE OF
THIS...FAIRLY LOCKED PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS IS FAVORED AS
CUTOFF LOW PRES/LONGWAVE TROF IN THE E GIVES WAY TO BUILDING
RIDGE. THIS RIDGE IS THE RESULT OF A COMBINATION OF A SRN STREAM
RIDGE CURRENTLY ACROSS THE SW/TEXAS WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH THE
PERSISTENT WRN ATLANTIC RIDGE. THEREFORE...AFTER A COOL AND
DIURNALLY CLOUDY START TO THE WEEK...A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY WX PREVAILS THANKS TO STRONG
1035+ HIGH PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. GIVEN
THE AGREEMENT HERE...A BLEND OF GUIDANCE WILL BE USED AS A
BASELINE.

DETAILS...

MON NIGHT INTO WED...
BAFFIN ISLAND CUTOFF IS CONNECTED TO LONGWAVE TROF WITH BASE
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE TO THE E THROUGH
THE EARLY HALF OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE PERSISTENT COOL
DRAW WITH N COMPONENT TO THE FLOW...SUSPECT THIS WILL BE THE
COOLEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL CLOUD
COVER UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO COOL
TUE AND MORESO ON WED THANKS TO A COOLER START. H85 TEMPS REMAIN
CLOSE TO +6C EACH DAY...SO NOT QUITE AS COLD AS THE LATE WEEK COOL
AIRMASS OF THIS PAST WEEK. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW-UPPER 60S EACH
DAY. REGARDING LOWS...TUE NIGHT IS LIKELY TO BE THE COOLER OF THE
TWO THANKS TO CENTER OF HIGH PRES MORE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD YIELDING
WEAK FLOW. ALTHOUGH WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING SOME FROST IS
POSSIBLE EITHER NIGHT IN THE COOLER VALLEYS PARTICULARLY IN NW MA
OR SW NH.

THU INTO THE WEEKEND...
HIGH PRES WILL BE SLOWLY CRESTING OVER THE REGION WITH TIME. LOW-
MID LVL HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE SUGGESTING INCREASING TEMPS
THROUGH THE COLUMN...THEREFORE...MODERATE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED EACH
DAY AS WELL. H85 TEMPS START ABOUT +9C THU...THEN MAY REACH
BETWEEN +12C AND +14C BY SUN. WITH MODERATION EACH DAY SUSPECT
THAT HIGHS WILL START NEAR NORMAL...INCREASING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY
THE WEEKEND...AT WHICH POINT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S FOR THE
WEEKEND.

FOR WHAT IT/S WORTH...EVEN THOUGH THE BLOCKING PATTERN SUGGESTS
THE DRY HIGH PRES AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES...THERE IS
AN INVERTED TROF IN THE MID ATLANTIC WITH HIGHER MOISTURE WHICH
MAY NEED TO BE WATCHED. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW AS A
DRY PATTERN SUCH AS THIS GENERALLY SUGGESTS POSITIVE
FEEDBACK...MAINTAINING ITSELF. HOWEVER...WITH THE VARIANCE EVIDENT
IN THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT LATE IN THE WEEK...MAY NEED TO
MONITOR THIS INVERTED TROF AND SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WHICH COULD
YIELD A CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM
BOTH THE GEFS AND ECENS DO BRING THIS TROF CLOSER TO NEW ENGLAND
THAN DO OTHER MEMBERS AND THE OPERATIONAL MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

12Z UPDATE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MIX OF MVFR/IFR IN A LINE FROM CT THROUGH CENTRAL AND WESTERN MA
INTO SRN NH. THIS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING UNTIL LEFTOVER
SHOWERS COME TO AN END. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH SOME LOW
CLOUDS MAY MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST MA LATE IN THE DAY.

TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT MVFR/IFR CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS
EARLY HALF OF THE NIGHT. CHANCE OF A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS
AROUND 06Z ESPECIALLY WESTERN- CENTRAL MA INTO NH.

MONDAY...VFR. MODEST W WIND. DRY RUNWAYS.

KBOS TERMINAL..MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF ON TIMING BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR DOMINATES THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW POCKETS
OF EARLY MORNING FOG AT TYPICALLY PRONE TERMINALS EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...

MODEST S-SE WINDS WITH HEAVY SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN WATERS. VSBY
REDUCED IN HEAVY RAIN AND PATCHY FOG.

TONIGHT...

SHOWERS DIMINISH. SEAS BUILD ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS THUS SCA IN
EFFECT. SSW WINDS SHIFT TO WEST TOWARD SUNRISE.

MONDAY...

WEST WINDS YIELD GOOD VSBY AND DRY WEATHER. HOWEVER SEAS REMAIN
ROUGH FROM LEFTOVER SOUTH SWELL COMBINED WITH DEVELOPING WEST WIND
WAVES.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

5-8 FT SEAS AND WINDS BOTH DIMINISH MON NIGHT...SUCH THAT SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY TO END. ALTHOUGH THE SWELL MAY LINGER
A BIT INTO TUE...EVEN THESE SHOULD DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS EARLY. OTHERWISE...MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD UNDER HIGH PRES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY



000
FXUS61 KBOX 211455
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1055 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

MUGGY CONDITIONS WITH A FEW HIT AND MISS SHOWERS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON IN MOST LOCALES...BUT A PERIOD OF RAIN IS LIKELY ACROSS
THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. DRIER
AND LESS HUMID WEATHER MONDAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEEK AHEAD...WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES THE FIRST HALF...AND WARMER TEMPS THE LATTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

1055 AM UPDATE...

A SMALL CLUSTER OF SHOWERS WERE STILL OCCURRING ACROSS SOUTHERN
NH/NORTH CENTRAL MA AT LATE MORNING.  THE REST OF THE REGION WAS DRY
WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS...BUT THERE STILL WERE PEEKS OF SUN
AT TIMES ACROSS EASTERN MA/RHODE ISLAND.

FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...MOST OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY IN A GIVEN
LOCATION.  HOWEVER...ENOUGH HEATING/INSTABILITY MAY TRIGGER A FEW
POP UP SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  AGAIN...NOT
EXPECTING ANY THUNDER THOUGH AND THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME WILL BE
DRY.

THE OTHER AREA WE ARE WATCHING IS THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND
COAST...AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MOVES NORTHEAST.
WHILE LACK OF BAROCLINICITY WILL LIKELY KEEP MOST OF THE RAIN
OFFSHORE...APPEARS IT MAY CLIP THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST
FOR A FEW HOURS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.  THIS
IS MAINLY FOR THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET...BUT PERHAPS GETTING A BIT
FURTHER NORTHWEST FOR A SHORT TIME.

HIGH TEMPS WILL BE WELL INTO THE 70S ACROSS MOST AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT MAY SEE A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MA
TOUCH 80.  DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S ARE BRINGING A MUGGY FEEL TO
THE AIR AND A RETURN TO MORE SUMMER LIKE WEATHER AFTER YESTERDAY/S
VERY CHILLY START.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...

TONIGHT...

NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS
MORNING ZIPS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO AREAL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED AND CONFINED TO THE INTERIOR.
OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY TONIGHT AND MILD AS FRONTAL PASSAGE DOESN/T
OCCUR UNTIL MONDAY MORNING.

MONDAY...

COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING WITH A SECONDARY
FRONT PASSING IN THE AFTERNOON. MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO JUST
EXPECTING SOME CLOUDS MIXING WITH THE SUNSHINE. STILL MILD AS COOLER
AIR DOESN`T ARRIVE UNTIL MON NIGHT. SO EXPECTING HIGHS MON WELL INTO
THE 70S INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS GIVEN WESTERLY WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE WEEK
* COOL TEMPERATURES THROUGH WED...MODERATING BY THE WEEKEND

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
21.00Z LONG RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM DESPITE THE VARIANCE IN OVERALL PATTERN
LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS VARIANCE IS APPARENT IN
TELECONNECTIONS...WHERE ALTHOUGH AO/NAO ARE POSITIVE...HOW
STRONGLY POSITIVE IT WILL BE REMAINS IN QUESTION. IN SPITE OF
THIS...FAIRLY LOCKED PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS IS FAVORED AS
CUTOFF LOW PRES/LONGWAVE TROF IN THE E GIVES WAY TO BUILDING
RIDGE. THIS RIDGE IS THE RESULT OF A COMBINATION OF A SRN STREAM
RIDGE CURRENTLY ACROSS THE SW/TEXAS WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH THE
PERSISTENT WRN ATLANTIC RIDGE. THEREFORE...AFTER A COOL AND
DIURNALLY CLOUDY START TO THE WEEK...A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY WX PREVAILS THANKS TO STRONG
1035+ HIGH PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. GIVEN
THE AGREEMENT HERE...A BLEND OF GUIDANCE WILL BE USED AS A
BASELINE.

DETAILS...

MON NIGHT INTO WED...
BAFFIN ISLAND CUTOFF IS CONNECTED TO LONGWAVE TROF WITH BASE
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE TO THE E THROUGH
THE EARLY HALF OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE PERSISTENT COOL
DRAW WITH N COMPONENT TO THE FLOW...SUSPECT THIS WILL BE THE
COOLEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL CLOUD
COVER UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO COOL
TUE AND MORESO ON WED THANKS TO A COOLER START. H85 TEMPS REMAIN
CLOSE TO +6C EACH DAY...SO NOT QUITE AS COLD AS THE LATE WEEK COOL
AIRMASS OF THIS PAST WEEK. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW-UPPER 60S EACH
DAY. REGARDING LOWS...TUE NIGHT IS LIKELY TO BE THE COOLER OF THE
TWO THANKS TO CENTER OF HIGH PRES MORE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD YIELDING
WEAK FLOW. ALTHOUGH WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING SOME FROST IS
POSSIBLE EITHER NIGHT IN THE COOLER VALLEYS PARTICULARLY IN NW MA
OR SW NH.

THU INTO THE WEEKEND...
HIGH PRES WILL BE SLOWLY CRESTING OVER THE REGION WITH TIME. LOW-
MID LVL HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE SUGGESTING INCREASING TEMPS
THROUGH THE COLUMN...THEREFORE...MODERATE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED EACH
DAY AS WELL. H85 TEMPS START ABOUT +9C THU...THEN MAY REACH
BETWEEN +12C AND +14C BY SUN. WITH MODERATION EACH DAY SUSPECT
THAT HIGHS WILL START NEAR NORMAL...INCREASING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY
THE WEEKEND...AT WHICH POINT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S FOR THE
WEEKEND.

FOR WHAT IT/S WORTH...EVEN THOUGH THE BLOCKING PATTERN SUGGESTS
THE DRY HIGH PRES AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES...THERE IS
AN INVERTED TROF IN THE MID ATLANTIC WITH HIGHER MOISTURE WHICH
MAY NEED TO BE WATCHED. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW AS A
DRY PATTERN SUCH AS THIS GENERALLY SUGGESTS POSITIVE
FEEDBACK...MAINTAINING ITSELF. HOWEVER...WITH THE VARIANCE EVIDENT
IN THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT LATE IN THE WEEK...MAY NEED TO
MONITOR THIS INVERTED TROF AND SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WHICH COULD
YIELD A CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM
BOTH THE GEFS AND ECENS DO BRING THIS TROF CLOSER TO NEW ENGLAND
THAN DO OTHER MEMBERS AND THE OPERATIONAL MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

12Z UPDATE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MIX OF MVFR/IFR IN A LINE FROM CT THROUGH CENTRAL AND WESTERN MA
INTO SRN NH. THIS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING UNTIL LEFTOVER
SHOWERS COME TO AN END. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH SOME LOW
CLOUDS MAY MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST MA LATE IN THE DAY.

TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT MVFR/IFR CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS
EARLY HALF OF THE NIGHT. CHANCE OF A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS
AROUND 06Z ESPECIALLY WESTERN- CENTRAL MA INTO NH.

MONDAY...VFR. MODEST W WIND. DRY RUNWAYS.

KBOS TERMINAL..MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF ON TIMING BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR DOMINATES THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW POCKETS
OF EARLY MORNING FOG AT TYPICALLY PRONE TERMINALS EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...

MODEST S-SE WINDS WITH HEAVY SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN WATERS. VSBY
REDUCED IN HEAVY RAIN AND PATCHY FOG.

TONIGHT...

SHOWERS DIMINISH. SEAS BUILD ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS THUS SCA IN
EFFECT. SSW WINDS SHIFT TO WEST TOWARD SUNRISE.

MONDAY...

WEST WINDS YIELD GOOD VSBY AND DRY WEATHER. HOWEVER SEAS REMAIN
ROUGH FROM LEFTOVER SOUTH SWELL COMBINED WITH DEVELOPING WEST WIND
WAVES.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

5-8 FT SEAS AND WINDS BOTH DIMINISH MON NIGHT...SUCH THAT SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY TO END. ALTHOUGH THE SWELL MAY LINGER
A BIT INTO TUE...EVEN THESE SHOULD DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS EARLY. OTHERWISE...MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD UNDER HIGH PRES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 211318
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
918 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIT AND MISS SHOWERS TODAY ALONG WITH MUGGY WEATHER.  DRIER
AND LESS HUMID WEATHER MONDAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEEK AHEAD...WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES THE FIRST HALF...AND WARMER TEMPS THE LATTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

910 AM UPDATE...

WHILE MOST OF THE REGION WAS DRY AT MID MORNING...A NARROW BAND OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUED TO AFFECT A SMALL PORTION OF NORTHERN
CT AND INTO CENTRAL MA.  THERE STILL WAS SOME BRIEF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN...BUT NOT AS HEAVY WHAT WE SAW EARLIER THIS MORNING AS THE LOW
LEVEL JET HAS WEAKENED A TAD.

OVERALL...SCATTERED HIT AND MISS SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
AFTERNOON.  WE MAY SEE THEM EXPAND A BIT INTO EASTERN MA/RHODE
ISLAND BY AFTERNOON AS SURFACE INSTABILITY INCREASES...DESPITE
WEAKENING WIND FIELDS.  NOT LOOKING AT A WASHOUT THOUGH AS MUCH OF
THE TIME WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER IN A SPECIFIC LOCATION.

THE OTHER MAIN FEATURE WE ARE WATCHING IS THE SYNOPTIC RAIN SHIELD
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.  WHILE
LACK OF BAROCLINICITY WILL LIKELY KEEP MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
OFFSHORE...APPEARS IT MAY CLIP THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND
COAST FOR A FEW HOURS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
THIS IS MAINLY FOR THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET...BUT PERHAPS GETTING A
BIT FURTHER NORTHWEST THAN THAT FOR A FEW HOURS.

HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON ARE TRICKY.  LOTS OF CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE INTERIOR SHOULD KEEP HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S.  STILL RATHER HUMID THOUGH GIVEN DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S.
ACROSS PORTIONS OF INTERIOR SOUTH EASTERN MA/RI...WILL LIKELY SEE
SOME 80 DEGREE HIGHS WHERE SUN WAS OUT THIS MORNING.  CLOUDS SHOULD
INCREASE IN THIS REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD.  CERTAINLY A DRAMATIC CHANGE
BACK TO SUMMER WEATHER AFTER THE VERY CHILLY START EARLY YESTERDAY
MORNING!

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...

NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS
MORNING ZIPS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO AREAL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED AND CONFINED TO THE INTERIOR.
OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY TONIGHT AND MILD AS FRONTAL PASSAGE DOESN/T
OCCUR UNTIL MONDAY MORNING.

MONDAY...

COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING WITH A SECONDARY
FRONT PASSING IN THE AFTERNOON. MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO JUST
EXPECTING SOME CLOUDS MIXING WITH THE SUNSHINE. STILL MILD AS COOLER
AIR DOESN`T ARRIVE UNTIL MON NIGHT. SO EXPECTING HIGHS MON WELL INTO
THE 70S INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS GIVEN WESTERLY WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE WEEK
* COOL TEMPERATURES THROUGH WED...MODERATING BY THE WEEKEND

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
21.00Z LONG RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM DESPITE THE VARIANCE IN OVERALL PATTERN
LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS VARIANCE IS APPARENT IN
TELECONNECTIONS...WHERE ALTHOUGH AO/NAO ARE POSITIVE...HOW
STRONGLY POSITIVE IT WILL BE REMAINS IN QUESTION. IN SPITE OF
THIS...FAIRLY LOCKED PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS IS FAVORED AS
CUTOFF LOW PRES/LONGWAVE TROF IN THE E GIVES WAY TO BUILDING
RIDGE. THIS RIDGE IS THE RESULT OF A COMBINATION OF A SRN STREAM
RIDGE CURRENTLY ACROSS THE SW/TEXAS WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH THE
PERSISTENT WRN ATLANTIC RIDGE. THEREFORE...AFTER A COOL AND
DIURNALLY CLOUDY START TO THE WEEK...A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY WX PREVAILS THANKS TO STRONG
1035+ HIGH PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. GIVEN
THE AGREEMENT HERE...A BLEND OF GUIDANCE WILL BE USED AS A
BASELINE.

DETAILS...

MON NIGHT INTO WED...
BAFFIN ISLAND CUTOFF IS CONNECTED TO LONGWAVE TROF WITH BASE
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE TO THE E THROUGH
THE EARLY HALF OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE PERSISTENT COOL
DRAW WITH N COMPONENT TO THE FLOW...SUSPECT THIS WILL BE THE
COOLEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL CLOUD
COVER UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO COOL
TUE AND MORESO ON WED THANKS TO A COOLER START. H85 TEMPS REMAIN
CLOSE TO +6C EACH DAY...SO NOT QUITE AS COLD AS THE LATE WEEK COOL
AIRMASS OF THIS PAST WEEK. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW-UPPER 60S EACH
DAY. REGARDING LOWS...TUE NIGHT IS LIKELY TO BE THE COOLER OF THE
TWO THANKS TO CENTER OF HIGH PRES MORE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD YIELDING
WEAK FLOW. ALTHOUGH WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING SOME FROST IS
POSSIBLE EITHER NIGHT IN THE COOLER VALLEYS PARTICULARLY IN NW MA
OR SW NH.

THU INTO THE WEEKEND...
HIGH PRES WILL BE SLOWLY CRESTING OVER THE REGION WITH TIME. LOW-
MID LVL HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE SUGGESTING INCREASING TEMPS
THROUGH THE COLUMN...THEREFORE...MODERATE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED EACH
DAY AS WELL. H85 TEMPS START ABOUT +9C THU...THEN MAY REACH
BETWEEN +12C AND +14C BY SUN. WITH MODERATION EACH DAY SUSPECT
THAT HIGHS WILL START NEAR NORMAL...INCREASING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY
THE WEEKEND...AT WHICH POINT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S FOR THE
WEEKEND.

FOR WHAT IT/S WORTH...EVEN THOUGH THE BLOCKING PATTERN SUGGESTS
THE DRY HIGH PRES AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES...THERE IS
AN INVERTED TROF IN THE MID ATLANTIC WITH HIGHER MOISTURE WHICH
MAY NEED TO BE WATCHED. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW AS A
DRY PATTERN SUCH AS THIS GENERALLY SUGGESTS POSITIVE
FEEDBACK...MAINTAINING ITSELF. HOWEVER...WITH THE VARIANCE EVIDENT
IN THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT LATE IN THE WEEK...MAY NEED TO
MONITOR THIS INVERTED TROF AND SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WHICH COULD
YIELD A CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM
BOTH THE GEFS AND ECENS DO BRING THIS TROF CLOSER TO NEW ENGLAND
THAN DO OTHER MEMBERS AND THE OPERATIONAL MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

12Z UPDATE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MIX OF MVFR/IFR IN A LINE FROM CT THROUGH CENTRAL AND WESTERN MA
INTO SRN NH. THIS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING UNTIL LEFTOVER
SHOWERS COME TO AN END. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH SOME LOW
CLOUDS MAY MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST MA LATE IN THE DAY.

TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT MVFR/IFR CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS
EARLY HALF OF THE NIGHT. CHANCE OF A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS
AROUND 06Z ESPECIALLY WESTERN- CENTRAL MA INTO NH.

MONDAY...VFR. MODEST W WIND. DRY RUNWAYS.

KBOS TERMINAL..MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF ON TIMING BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR DOMINATES THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW POCKETS
OF EARLY MORNING FOG AT TYPICALLY PRONE TERMINALS EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...

MODEST S-SE WINDS WITH HEAVY SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN WATERS. VSBY
REDUCED IN HEAVY RAIN AND PATCHY FOG.

TONIGHT...

SHOWERS DIMINISH. SEAS BUILD ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS THUS SCA IN
EFFECT. SSW WINDS SHIFT TO WEST TOWARD SUNRISE.

MONDAY...

WEST WINDS YIELD GOOD VSBY AND DRY WEATHER. HOWEVER SEAS REMAIN
ROUGH FROM LEFTOVER SOUTH SWELL COMBINED WITH DEVELOPING WEST WIND
WAVES.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

5-8 FT SEAS AND WINDS BOTH DIMINISH MON NIGHT...SUCH THAT SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY TO END. ALTHOUGH THE SWELL MAY LINGER
A BIT INTO TUE...EVEN THESE SHOULD DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS EARLY. OTHERWISE...MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD UNDER HIGH PRES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 211318
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
918 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIT AND MISS SHOWERS TODAY ALONG WITH MUGGY WEATHER.  DRIER
AND LESS HUMID WEATHER MONDAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEEK AHEAD...WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES THE FIRST HALF...AND WARMER TEMPS THE LATTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

910 AM UPDATE...

WHILE MOST OF THE REGION WAS DRY AT MID MORNING...A NARROW BAND OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUED TO AFFECT A SMALL PORTION OF NORTHERN
CT AND INTO CENTRAL MA.  THERE STILL WAS SOME BRIEF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN...BUT NOT AS HEAVY WHAT WE SAW EARLIER THIS MORNING AS THE LOW
LEVEL JET HAS WEAKENED A TAD.

OVERALL...SCATTERED HIT AND MISS SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
AFTERNOON.  WE MAY SEE THEM EXPAND A BIT INTO EASTERN MA/RHODE
ISLAND BY AFTERNOON AS SURFACE INSTABILITY INCREASES...DESPITE
WEAKENING WIND FIELDS.  NOT LOOKING AT A WASHOUT THOUGH AS MUCH OF
THE TIME WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER IN A SPECIFIC LOCATION.

THE OTHER MAIN FEATURE WE ARE WATCHING IS THE SYNOPTIC RAIN SHIELD
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.  WHILE
LACK OF BAROCLINICITY WILL LIKELY KEEP MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
OFFSHORE...APPEARS IT MAY CLIP THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND
COAST FOR A FEW HOURS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
THIS IS MAINLY FOR THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET...BUT PERHAPS GETTING A
BIT FURTHER NORTHWEST THAN THAT FOR A FEW HOURS.

HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON ARE TRICKY.  LOTS OF CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE INTERIOR SHOULD KEEP HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S.  STILL RATHER HUMID THOUGH GIVEN DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S.
ACROSS PORTIONS OF INTERIOR SOUTH EASTERN MA/RI...WILL LIKELY SEE
SOME 80 DEGREE HIGHS WHERE SUN WAS OUT THIS MORNING.  CLOUDS SHOULD
INCREASE IN THIS REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD.  CERTAINLY A DRAMATIC CHANGE
BACK TO SUMMER WEATHER AFTER THE VERY CHILLY START EARLY YESTERDAY
MORNING!

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...

NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS
MORNING ZIPS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO AREAL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED AND CONFINED TO THE INTERIOR.
OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY TONIGHT AND MILD AS FRONTAL PASSAGE DOESN/T
OCCUR UNTIL MONDAY MORNING.

MONDAY...

COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING WITH A SECONDARY
FRONT PASSING IN THE AFTERNOON. MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO JUST
EXPECTING SOME CLOUDS MIXING WITH THE SUNSHINE. STILL MILD AS COOLER
AIR DOESN`T ARRIVE UNTIL MON NIGHT. SO EXPECTING HIGHS MON WELL INTO
THE 70S INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS GIVEN WESTERLY WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE WEEK
* COOL TEMPERATURES THROUGH WED...MODERATING BY THE WEEKEND

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
21.00Z LONG RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM DESPITE THE VARIANCE IN OVERALL PATTERN
LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS VARIANCE IS APPARENT IN
TELECONNECTIONS...WHERE ALTHOUGH AO/NAO ARE POSITIVE...HOW
STRONGLY POSITIVE IT WILL BE REMAINS IN QUESTION. IN SPITE OF
THIS...FAIRLY LOCKED PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS IS FAVORED AS
CUTOFF LOW PRES/LONGWAVE TROF IN THE E GIVES WAY TO BUILDING
RIDGE. THIS RIDGE IS THE RESULT OF A COMBINATION OF A SRN STREAM
RIDGE CURRENTLY ACROSS THE SW/TEXAS WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH THE
PERSISTENT WRN ATLANTIC RIDGE. THEREFORE...AFTER A COOL AND
DIURNALLY CLOUDY START TO THE WEEK...A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY WX PREVAILS THANKS TO STRONG
1035+ HIGH PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. GIVEN
THE AGREEMENT HERE...A BLEND OF GUIDANCE WILL BE USED AS A
BASELINE.

DETAILS...

MON NIGHT INTO WED...
BAFFIN ISLAND CUTOFF IS CONNECTED TO LONGWAVE TROF WITH BASE
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE TO THE E THROUGH
THE EARLY HALF OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE PERSISTENT COOL
DRAW WITH N COMPONENT TO THE FLOW...SUSPECT THIS WILL BE THE
COOLEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL CLOUD
COVER UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO COOL
TUE AND MORESO ON WED THANKS TO A COOLER START. H85 TEMPS REMAIN
CLOSE TO +6C EACH DAY...SO NOT QUITE AS COLD AS THE LATE WEEK COOL
AIRMASS OF THIS PAST WEEK. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW-UPPER 60S EACH
DAY. REGARDING LOWS...TUE NIGHT IS LIKELY TO BE THE COOLER OF THE
TWO THANKS TO CENTER OF HIGH PRES MORE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD YIELDING
WEAK FLOW. ALTHOUGH WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING SOME FROST IS
POSSIBLE EITHER NIGHT IN THE COOLER VALLEYS PARTICULARLY IN NW MA
OR SW NH.

THU INTO THE WEEKEND...
HIGH PRES WILL BE SLOWLY CRESTING OVER THE REGION WITH TIME. LOW-
MID LVL HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE SUGGESTING INCREASING TEMPS
THROUGH THE COLUMN...THEREFORE...MODERATE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED EACH
DAY AS WELL. H85 TEMPS START ABOUT +9C THU...THEN MAY REACH
BETWEEN +12C AND +14C BY SUN. WITH MODERATION EACH DAY SUSPECT
THAT HIGHS WILL START NEAR NORMAL...INCREASING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY
THE WEEKEND...AT WHICH POINT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S FOR THE
WEEKEND.

FOR WHAT IT/S WORTH...EVEN THOUGH THE BLOCKING PATTERN SUGGESTS
THE DRY HIGH PRES AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES...THERE IS
AN INVERTED TROF IN THE MID ATLANTIC WITH HIGHER MOISTURE WHICH
MAY NEED TO BE WATCHED. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW AS A
DRY PATTERN SUCH AS THIS GENERALLY SUGGESTS POSITIVE
FEEDBACK...MAINTAINING ITSELF. HOWEVER...WITH THE VARIANCE EVIDENT
IN THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT LATE IN THE WEEK...MAY NEED TO
MONITOR THIS INVERTED TROF AND SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WHICH COULD
YIELD A CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM
BOTH THE GEFS AND ECENS DO BRING THIS TROF CLOSER TO NEW ENGLAND
THAN DO OTHER MEMBERS AND THE OPERATIONAL MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

12Z UPDATE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MIX OF MVFR/IFR IN A LINE FROM CT THROUGH CENTRAL AND WESTERN MA
INTO SRN NH. THIS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING UNTIL LEFTOVER
SHOWERS COME TO AN END. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH SOME LOW
CLOUDS MAY MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST MA LATE IN THE DAY.

TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT MVFR/IFR CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS
EARLY HALF OF THE NIGHT. CHANCE OF A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS
AROUND 06Z ESPECIALLY WESTERN- CENTRAL MA INTO NH.

MONDAY...VFR. MODEST W WIND. DRY RUNWAYS.

KBOS TERMINAL..MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF ON TIMING BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR DOMINATES THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW POCKETS
OF EARLY MORNING FOG AT TYPICALLY PRONE TERMINALS EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...

MODEST S-SE WINDS WITH HEAVY SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN WATERS. VSBY
REDUCED IN HEAVY RAIN AND PATCHY FOG.

TONIGHT...

SHOWERS DIMINISH. SEAS BUILD ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS THUS SCA IN
EFFECT. SSW WINDS SHIFT TO WEST TOWARD SUNRISE.

MONDAY...

WEST WINDS YIELD GOOD VSBY AND DRY WEATHER. HOWEVER SEAS REMAIN
ROUGH FROM LEFTOVER SOUTH SWELL COMBINED WITH DEVELOPING WEST WIND
WAVES.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

5-8 FT SEAS AND WINDS BOTH DIMINISH MON NIGHT...SUCH THAT SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY TO END. ALTHOUGH THE SWELL MAY LINGER
A BIT INTO TUE...EVEN THESE SHOULD DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS EARLY. OTHERWISE...MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD UNDER HIGH PRES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 211318
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
918 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIT AND MISS SHOWERS TODAY ALONG WITH MUGGY WEATHER.  DRIER
AND LESS HUMID WEATHER MONDAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEEK AHEAD...WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES THE FIRST HALF...AND WARMER TEMPS THE LATTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

910 AM UPDATE...

WHILE MOST OF THE REGION WAS DRY AT MID MORNING...A NARROW BAND OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUED TO AFFECT A SMALL PORTION OF NORTHERN
CT AND INTO CENTRAL MA.  THERE STILL WAS SOME BRIEF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN...BUT NOT AS HEAVY WHAT WE SAW EARLIER THIS MORNING AS THE LOW
LEVEL JET HAS WEAKENED A TAD.

OVERALL...SCATTERED HIT AND MISS SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
AFTERNOON.  WE MAY SEE THEM EXPAND A BIT INTO EASTERN MA/RHODE
ISLAND BY AFTERNOON AS SURFACE INSTABILITY INCREASES...DESPITE
WEAKENING WIND FIELDS.  NOT LOOKING AT A WASHOUT THOUGH AS MUCH OF
THE TIME WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER IN A SPECIFIC LOCATION.

THE OTHER MAIN FEATURE WE ARE WATCHING IS THE SYNOPTIC RAIN SHIELD
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.  WHILE
LACK OF BAROCLINICITY WILL LIKELY KEEP MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
OFFSHORE...APPEARS IT MAY CLIP THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND
COAST FOR A FEW HOURS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
THIS IS MAINLY FOR THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET...BUT PERHAPS GETTING A
BIT FURTHER NORTHWEST THAN THAT FOR A FEW HOURS.

HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON ARE TRICKY.  LOTS OF CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE INTERIOR SHOULD KEEP HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S.  STILL RATHER HUMID THOUGH GIVEN DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S.
ACROSS PORTIONS OF INTERIOR SOUTH EASTERN MA/RI...WILL LIKELY SEE
SOME 80 DEGREE HIGHS WHERE SUN WAS OUT THIS MORNING.  CLOUDS SHOULD
INCREASE IN THIS REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD.  CERTAINLY A DRAMATIC CHANGE
BACK TO SUMMER WEATHER AFTER THE VERY CHILLY START EARLY YESTERDAY
MORNING!

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...

NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS
MORNING ZIPS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO AREAL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED AND CONFINED TO THE INTERIOR.
OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY TONIGHT AND MILD AS FRONTAL PASSAGE DOESN/T
OCCUR UNTIL MONDAY MORNING.

MONDAY...

COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING WITH A SECONDARY
FRONT PASSING IN THE AFTERNOON. MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO JUST
EXPECTING SOME CLOUDS MIXING WITH THE SUNSHINE. STILL MILD AS COOLER
AIR DOESN`T ARRIVE UNTIL MON NIGHT. SO EXPECTING HIGHS MON WELL INTO
THE 70S INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS GIVEN WESTERLY WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE WEEK
* COOL TEMPERATURES THROUGH WED...MODERATING BY THE WEEKEND

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
21.00Z LONG RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM DESPITE THE VARIANCE IN OVERALL PATTERN
LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS VARIANCE IS APPARENT IN
TELECONNECTIONS...WHERE ALTHOUGH AO/NAO ARE POSITIVE...HOW
STRONGLY POSITIVE IT WILL BE REMAINS IN QUESTION. IN SPITE OF
THIS...FAIRLY LOCKED PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS IS FAVORED AS
CUTOFF LOW PRES/LONGWAVE TROF IN THE E GIVES WAY TO BUILDING
RIDGE. THIS RIDGE IS THE RESULT OF A COMBINATION OF A SRN STREAM
RIDGE CURRENTLY ACROSS THE SW/TEXAS WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH THE
PERSISTENT WRN ATLANTIC RIDGE. THEREFORE...AFTER A COOL AND
DIURNALLY CLOUDY START TO THE WEEK...A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY WX PREVAILS THANKS TO STRONG
1035+ HIGH PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. GIVEN
THE AGREEMENT HERE...A BLEND OF GUIDANCE WILL BE USED AS A
BASELINE.

DETAILS...

MON NIGHT INTO WED...
BAFFIN ISLAND CUTOFF IS CONNECTED TO LONGWAVE TROF WITH BASE
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE TO THE E THROUGH
THE EARLY HALF OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE PERSISTENT COOL
DRAW WITH N COMPONENT TO THE FLOW...SUSPECT THIS WILL BE THE
COOLEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL CLOUD
COVER UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO COOL
TUE AND MORESO ON WED THANKS TO A COOLER START. H85 TEMPS REMAIN
CLOSE TO +6C EACH DAY...SO NOT QUITE AS COLD AS THE LATE WEEK COOL
AIRMASS OF THIS PAST WEEK. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW-UPPER 60S EACH
DAY. REGARDING LOWS...TUE NIGHT IS LIKELY TO BE THE COOLER OF THE
TWO THANKS TO CENTER OF HIGH PRES MORE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD YIELDING
WEAK FLOW. ALTHOUGH WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING SOME FROST IS
POSSIBLE EITHER NIGHT IN THE COOLER VALLEYS PARTICULARLY IN NW MA
OR SW NH.

THU INTO THE WEEKEND...
HIGH PRES WILL BE SLOWLY CRESTING OVER THE REGION WITH TIME. LOW-
MID LVL HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE SUGGESTING INCREASING TEMPS
THROUGH THE COLUMN...THEREFORE...MODERATE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED EACH
DAY AS WELL. H85 TEMPS START ABOUT +9C THU...THEN MAY REACH
BETWEEN +12C AND +14C BY SUN. WITH MODERATION EACH DAY SUSPECT
THAT HIGHS WILL START NEAR NORMAL...INCREASING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY
THE WEEKEND...AT WHICH POINT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S FOR THE
WEEKEND.

FOR WHAT IT/S WORTH...EVEN THOUGH THE BLOCKING PATTERN SUGGESTS
THE DRY HIGH PRES AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES...THERE IS
AN INVERTED TROF IN THE MID ATLANTIC WITH HIGHER MOISTURE WHICH
MAY NEED TO BE WATCHED. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW AS A
DRY PATTERN SUCH AS THIS GENERALLY SUGGESTS POSITIVE
FEEDBACK...MAINTAINING ITSELF. HOWEVER...WITH THE VARIANCE EVIDENT
IN THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT LATE IN THE WEEK...MAY NEED TO
MONITOR THIS INVERTED TROF AND SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WHICH COULD
YIELD A CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM
BOTH THE GEFS AND ECENS DO BRING THIS TROF CLOSER TO NEW ENGLAND
THAN DO OTHER MEMBERS AND THE OPERATIONAL MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

12Z UPDATE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MIX OF MVFR/IFR IN A LINE FROM CT THROUGH CENTRAL AND WESTERN MA
INTO SRN NH. THIS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING UNTIL LEFTOVER
SHOWERS COME TO AN END. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH SOME LOW
CLOUDS MAY MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST MA LATE IN THE DAY.

TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT MVFR/IFR CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS
EARLY HALF OF THE NIGHT. CHANCE OF A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS
AROUND 06Z ESPECIALLY WESTERN- CENTRAL MA INTO NH.

MONDAY...VFR. MODEST W WIND. DRY RUNWAYS.

KBOS TERMINAL..MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF ON TIMING BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR DOMINATES THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW POCKETS
OF EARLY MORNING FOG AT TYPICALLY PRONE TERMINALS EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...

MODEST S-SE WINDS WITH HEAVY SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN WATERS. VSBY
REDUCED IN HEAVY RAIN AND PATCHY FOG.

TONIGHT...

SHOWERS DIMINISH. SEAS BUILD ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS THUS SCA IN
EFFECT. SSW WINDS SHIFT TO WEST TOWARD SUNRISE.

MONDAY...

WEST WINDS YIELD GOOD VSBY AND DRY WEATHER. HOWEVER SEAS REMAIN
ROUGH FROM LEFTOVER SOUTH SWELL COMBINED WITH DEVELOPING WEST WIND
WAVES.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

5-8 FT SEAS AND WINDS BOTH DIMINISH MON NIGHT...SUCH THAT SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY TO END. ALTHOUGH THE SWELL MAY LINGER
A BIT INTO TUE...EVEN THESE SHOULD DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS EARLY. OTHERWISE...MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD UNDER HIGH PRES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 211318
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
918 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIT AND MISS SHOWERS TODAY ALONG WITH MUGGY WEATHER.  DRIER
AND LESS HUMID WEATHER MONDAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEEK AHEAD...WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES THE FIRST HALF...AND WARMER TEMPS THE LATTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

910 AM UPDATE...

WHILE MOST OF THE REGION WAS DRY AT MID MORNING...A NARROW BAND OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUED TO AFFECT A SMALL PORTION OF NORTHERN
CT AND INTO CENTRAL MA.  THERE STILL WAS SOME BRIEF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN...BUT NOT AS HEAVY WHAT WE SAW EARLIER THIS MORNING AS THE LOW
LEVEL JET HAS WEAKENED A TAD.

OVERALL...SCATTERED HIT AND MISS SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
AFTERNOON.  WE MAY SEE THEM EXPAND A BIT INTO EASTERN MA/RHODE
ISLAND BY AFTERNOON AS SURFACE INSTABILITY INCREASES...DESPITE
WEAKENING WIND FIELDS.  NOT LOOKING AT A WASHOUT THOUGH AS MUCH OF
THE TIME WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER IN A SPECIFIC LOCATION.

THE OTHER MAIN FEATURE WE ARE WATCHING IS THE SYNOPTIC RAIN SHIELD
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.  WHILE
LACK OF BAROCLINICITY WILL LIKELY KEEP MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
OFFSHORE...APPEARS IT MAY CLIP THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND
COAST FOR A FEW HOURS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
THIS IS MAINLY FOR THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET...BUT PERHAPS GETTING A
BIT FURTHER NORTHWEST THAN THAT FOR A FEW HOURS.

HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON ARE TRICKY.  LOTS OF CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE INTERIOR SHOULD KEEP HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S.  STILL RATHER HUMID THOUGH GIVEN DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S.
ACROSS PORTIONS OF INTERIOR SOUTH EASTERN MA/RI...WILL LIKELY SEE
SOME 80 DEGREE HIGHS WHERE SUN WAS OUT THIS MORNING.  CLOUDS SHOULD
INCREASE IN THIS REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD.  CERTAINLY A DRAMATIC CHANGE
BACK TO SUMMER WEATHER AFTER THE VERY CHILLY START EARLY YESTERDAY
MORNING!

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...

NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS
MORNING ZIPS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO AREAL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED AND CONFINED TO THE INTERIOR.
OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY TONIGHT AND MILD AS FRONTAL PASSAGE DOESN/T
OCCUR UNTIL MONDAY MORNING.

MONDAY...

COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING WITH A SECONDARY
FRONT PASSING IN THE AFTERNOON. MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO JUST
EXPECTING SOME CLOUDS MIXING WITH THE SUNSHINE. STILL MILD AS COOLER
AIR DOESN`T ARRIVE UNTIL MON NIGHT. SO EXPECTING HIGHS MON WELL INTO
THE 70S INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS GIVEN WESTERLY WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE WEEK
* COOL TEMPERATURES THROUGH WED...MODERATING BY THE WEEKEND

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
21.00Z LONG RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM DESPITE THE VARIANCE IN OVERALL PATTERN
LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS VARIANCE IS APPARENT IN
TELECONNECTIONS...WHERE ALTHOUGH AO/NAO ARE POSITIVE...HOW
STRONGLY POSITIVE IT WILL BE REMAINS IN QUESTION. IN SPITE OF
THIS...FAIRLY LOCKED PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS IS FAVORED AS
CUTOFF LOW PRES/LONGWAVE TROF IN THE E GIVES WAY TO BUILDING
RIDGE. THIS RIDGE IS THE RESULT OF A COMBINATION OF A SRN STREAM
RIDGE CURRENTLY ACROSS THE SW/TEXAS WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH THE
PERSISTENT WRN ATLANTIC RIDGE. THEREFORE...AFTER A COOL AND
DIURNALLY CLOUDY START TO THE WEEK...A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY WX PREVAILS THANKS TO STRONG
1035+ HIGH PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. GIVEN
THE AGREEMENT HERE...A BLEND OF GUIDANCE WILL BE USED AS A
BASELINE.

DETAILS...

MON NIGHT INTO WED...
BAFFIN ISLAND CUTOFF IS CONNECTED TO LONGWAVE TROF WITH BASE
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE TO THE E THROUGH
THE EARLY HALF OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE PERSISTENT COOL
DRAW WITH N COMPONENT TO THE FLOW...SUSPECT THIS WILL BE THE
COOLEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL CLOUD
COVER UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO COOL
TUE AND MORESO ON WED THANKS TO A COOLER START. H85 TEMPS REMAIN
CLOSE TO +6C EACH DAY...SO NOT QUITE AS COLD AS THE LATE WEEK COOL
AIRMASS OF THIS PAST WEEK. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW-UPPER 60S EACH
DAY. REGARDING LOWS...TUE NIGHT IS LIKELY TO BE THE COOLER OF THE
TWO THANKS TO CENTER OF HIGH PRES MORE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD YIELDING
WEAK FLOW. ALTHOUGH WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING SOME FROST IS
POSSIBLE EITHER NIGHT IN THE COOLER VALLEYS PARTICULARLY IN NW MA
OR SW NH.

THU INTO THE WEEKEND...
HIGH PRES WILL BE SLOWLY CRESTING OVER THE REGION WITH TIME. LOW-
MID LVL HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE SUGGESTING INCREASING TEMPS
THROUGH THE COLUMN...THEREFORE...MODERATE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED EACH
DAY AS WELL. H85 TEMPS START ABOUT +9C THU...THEN MAY REACH
BETWEEN +12C AND +14C BY SUN. WITH MODERATION EACH DAY SUSPECT
THAT HIGHS WILL START NEAR NORMAL...INCREASING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY
THE WEEKEND...AT WHICH POINT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S FOR THE
WEEKEND.

FOR WHAT IT/S WORTH...EVEN THOUGH THE BLOCKING PATTERN SUGGESTS
THE DRY HIGH PRES AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES...THERE IS
AN INVERTED TROF IN THE MID ATLANTIC WITH HIGHER MOISTURE WHICH
MAY NEED TO BE WATCHED. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW AS A
DRY PATTERN SUCH AS THIS GENERALLY SUGGESTS POSITIVE
FEEDBACK...MAINTAINING ITSELF. HOWEVER...WITH THE VARIANCE EVIDENT
IN THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT LATE IN THE WEEK...MAY NEED TO
MONITOR THIS INVERTED TROF AND SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WHICH COULD
YIELD A CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM
BOTH THE GEFS AND ECENS DO BRING THIS TROF CLOSER TO NEW ENGLAND
THAN DO OTHER MEMBERS AND THE OPERATIONAL MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

12Z UPDATE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MIX OF MVFR/IFR IN A LINE FROM CT THROUGH CENTRAL AND WESTERN MA
INTO SRN NH. THIS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING UNTIL LEFTOVER
SHOWERS COME TO AN END. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH SOME LOW
CLOUDS MAY MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST MA LATE IN THE DAY.

TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT MVFR/IFR CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS
EARLY HALF OF THE NIGHT. CHANCE OF A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS
AROUND 06Z ESPECIALLY WESTERN- CENTRAL MA INTO NH.

MONDAY...VFR. MODEST W WIND. DRY RUNWAYS.

KBOS TERMINAL..MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF ON TIMING BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR DOMINATES THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW POCKETS
OF EARLY MORNING FOG AT TYPICALLY PRONE TERMINALS EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...

MODEST S-SE WINDS WITH HEAVY SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN WATERS. VSBY
REDUCED IN HEAVY RAIN AND PATCHY FOG.

TONIGHT...

SHOWERS DIMINISH. SEAS BUILD ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS THUS SCA IN
EFFECT. SSW WINDS SHIFT TO WEST TOWARD SUNRISE.

MONDAY...

WEST WINDS YIELD GOOD VSBY AND DRY WEATHER. HOWEVER SEAS REMAIN
ROUGH FROM LEFTOVER SOUTH SWELL COMBINED WITH DEVELOPING WEST WIND
WAVES.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

5-8 FT SEAS AND WINDS BOTH DIMINISH MON NIGHT...SUCH THAT SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY TO END. ALTHOUGH THE SWELL MAY LINGER
A BIT INTO TUE...EVEN THESE SHOULD DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS EARLY. OTHERWISE...MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD UNDER HIGH PRES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 211313
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
913 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THIS MORNING MAINLY OVER
CONNECTICUT...WESTERN-CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS INTO SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE WILL BECOME LESS NUMEROUS THIS AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO
EAST. WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS TODAY WILL BE REPLACED BY DRIER AND
LESS HUMID WEATHER MONDAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEEK AHEAD...WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES THE FIRST HALF...AND WARMER TEMPS THE LATTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

910 AM UPDATE...

WHILE MOST OF THE REGION WAS DRY AT MID MORNING...A NARROW BAND OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUED TO AFFECT A SMALL PORTION OF NORTHERN
CT AND INTO CENTRAL MA.  THERE STILL WAS SOME BRIEF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN...BUT NOT AS HEAVY WHAT WE SAW EARLIER THIS MORNING AS THE LOW
LEVEL JET HAS WEAKENED A TAD.

OVERALL...SCATTERED HIT AND MISS SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
AFTERNOON.  WE MAY SEE THEM EXPAND A BIT INTO EASTERN MA/RHODE
ISLAND BY AFTERNOON AS SURFACE INSTABILITY INCREASES...DESPITE
WEAKENING WIND FIELDS.  NOT LOOKING AT A WASHOUT THOUGH AS MUCH OF
THE TIME WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER IN A SPECIFIC LOCATION.

THE OTHER MAIN FEATURE WE ARE WATCHING IS THE SYNOPTIC RAIN SHIELD
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.  WHILE
LACK OF BAROCLINICITY WILL LIKELY KEEP MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
OFFSHORE...APPEARS IT MAY CLIP THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND
COAST FOR A FEW HOURS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
THIS IS MAINLY FOR THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET...BUT PERHAPS GETTING A
BIT FURTHER NORTHWEST THAN THAT FOR A FEW HOURS.

HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON ARE TRICKY.  LOTS OF CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE INTERIOR SHOULD KEEP HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S.  STILL RATHER HUMID THOUGH GIVEN DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S.
ACROSS PORTIONS OF INTERIOR SOUTH EASTERN MA/RI...WILL LIKELY SEE
SOME 80 DEGREE HIGHS WHERE SUN WAS OUT THIS MORNING.  CLOUDS SHOULD
INCREASE IN THIS REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD.  CERTAINLY A DRAMATIC CHANGE
BACK TO SUMMER WEATHER AFTER THE VERY CHILLY START EARLY YESTERDAY
MORNING!

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...

NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS
MORNING ZIPS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO AREAL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED AND CONFINED TO THE INTERIOR.
OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY TONIGHT AND MILD AS FRONTAL PASSAGE DOESN/T
OCCUR UNTIL MONDAY MORNING.

MONDAY...

COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING WITH A SECONDARY
FRONT PASSING IN THE AFTERNOON. MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO JUST
EXPECTING SOME CLOUDS MIXING WITH THE SUNSHINE. STILL MILD AS COOLER
AIR DOESN`T ARRIVE UNTIL MON NIGHT. SO EXPECTING HIGHS MON WELL INTO
THE 70S INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS GIVEN WESTERLY WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE WEEK
* COOL TEMPERATURES THROUGH WED...MODERATING BY THE WEEKEND

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
21.00Z LONG RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM DESPITE THE VARIANCE IN OVERALL PATTERN
LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS VARIANCE IS APPARENT IN
TELECONNECTIONS...WHERE ALTHOUGH AO/NAO ARE POSITIVE...HOW
STRONGLY POSITIVE IT WILL BE REMAINS IN QUESTION. IN SPITE OF
THIS...FAIRLY LOCKED PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS IS FAVORED AS
CUTOFF LOW PRES/LONGWAVE TROF IN THE E GIVES WAY TO BUILDING
RIDGE. THIS RIDGE IS THE RESULT OF A COMBINATION OF A SRN STREAM
RIDGE CURRENTLY ACROSS THE SW/TEXAS WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH THE
PERSISTENT WRN ATLANTIC RIDGE. THEREFORE...AFTER A COOL AND
DIURNALLY CLOUDY START TO THE WEEK...A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY WX PREVAILS THANKS TO STRONG
1035+ HIGH PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. GIVEN
THE AGREEMENT HERE...A BLEND OF GUIDANCE WILL BE USED AS A
BASELINE.

DETAILS...

MON NIGHT INTO WED...
BAFFIN ISLAND CUTOFF IS CONNECTED TO LONGWAVE TROF WITH BASE
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE TO THE E THROUGH
THE EARLY HALF OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE PERSISTENT COOL
DRAW WITH N COMPONENT TO THE FLOW...SUSPECT THIS WILL BE THE
COOLEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL CLOUD
COVER UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO COOL
TUE AND MORESO ON WED THANKS TO A COOLER START. H85 TEMPS REMAIN
CLOSE TO +6C EACH DAY...SO NOT QUITE AS COLD AS THE LATE WEEK COOL
AIRMASS OF THIS PAST WEEK. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW-UPPER 60S EACH
DAY. REGARDING LOWS...TUE NIGHT IS LIKELY TO BE THE COOLER OF THE
TWO THANKS TO CENTER OF HIGH PRES MORE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD YIELDING
WEAK FLOW. ALTHOUGH WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING SOME FROST IS
POSSIBLE EITHER NIGHT IN THE COOLER VALLEYS PARTICULARLY IN NW MA
OR SW NH.

THU INTO THE WEEKEND...
HIGH PRES WILL BE SLOWLY CRESTING OVER THE REGION WITH TIME. LOW-
MID LVL HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE SUGGESTING INCREASING TEMPS
THROUGH THE COLUMN...THEREFORE...MODERATE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED EACH
DAY AS WELL. H85 TEMPS START ABOUT +9C THU...THEN MAY REACH
BETWEEN +12C AND +14C BY SUN. WITH MODERATION EACH DAY SUSPECT
THAT HIGHS WILL START NEAR NORMAL...INCREASING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY
THE WEEKEND...AT WHICH POINT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S FOR THE
WEEKEND.

FOR WHAT IT/S WORTH...EVEN THOUGH THE BLOCKING PATTERN SUGGESTS
THE DRY HIGH PRES AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES...THERE IS
AN INVERTED TROF IN THE MID ATLANTIC WITH HIGHER MOISTURE WHICH
MAY NEED TO BE WATCHED. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW AS A
DRY PATTERN SUCH AS THIS GENERALLY SUGGESTS POSITIVE
FEEDBACK...MAINTAINING ITSELF. HOWEVER...WITH THE VARIANCE EVIDENT
IN THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT LATE IN THE WEEK...MAY NEED TO
MONITOR THIS INVERTED TROF AND SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WHICH COULD
YIELD A CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM
BOTH THE GEFS AND ECENS DO BRING THIS TROF CLOSER TO NEW ENGLAND
THAN DO OTHER MEMBERS AND THE OPERATIONAL MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

12Z UPDATE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MIX OF MVFR/IFR IN A LINE FROM CT THROUGH CENTRAL AND WESTERN MA
INTO SRN NH. THIS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING UNTIL LEFTOVER
SHOWERS COME TO AN END. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH SOME LOW
CLOUDS MAY MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST MA LATE IN THE DAY.

TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT MVFR/IFR CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS
EARLY HALF OF THE NIGHT. CHANCE OF A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS
AROUND 06Z ESPECIALLY WESTERN- CENTRAL MA INTO NH.

MONDAY...VFR. MODEST W WIND. DRY RUNWAYS.

KBOS TERMINAL..MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF ON TIMING BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR DOMINATES THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW POCKETS
OF EARLY MORNING FOG AT TYPICALLY PRONE TERMINALS EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...

MODEST S-SE WINDS WITH HEAVY SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN WATERS. VSBY
REDUCED IN HEAVY RAIN AND PATCHY FOG.

TONIGHT...

SHOWERS DIMINISH. SEAS BUILD ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS THUS SCA IN
EFFECT. SSW WINDS SHIFT TO WEST TOWARD SUNRISE.

MONDAY...

WEST WINDS YIELD GOOD VSBY AND DRY WEATHER. HOWEVER SEAS REMAIN
ROUGH FROM LEFTOVER SOUTH SWELL COMBINED WITH DEVELOPING WEST WIND
WAVES.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

5-8 FT SEAS AND WINDS BOTH DIMINISH MON NIGHT...SUCH THAT SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY TO END. ALTHOUGH THE SWELL MAY LINGER
A BIT INTO TUE...EVEN THESE SHOULD DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS EARLY. OTHERWISE...MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD UNDER HIGH PRES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 211313
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
913 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THIS MORNING MAINLY OVER
CONNECTICUT...WESTERN-CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS INTO SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE WILL BECOME LESS NUMEROUS THIS AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO
EAST. WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS TODAY WILL BE REPLACED BY DRIER AND
LESS HUMID WEATHER MONDAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEEK AHEAD...WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES THE FIRST HALF...AND WARMER TEMPS THE LATTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

910 AM UPDATE...

WHILE MOST OF THE REGION WAS DRY AT MID MORNING...A NARROW BAND OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUED TO AFFECT A SMALL PORTION OF NORTHERN
CT AND INTO CENTRAL MA.  THERE STILL WAS SOME BRIEF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN...BUT NOT AS HEAVY WHAT WE SAW EARLIER THIS MORNING AS THE LOW
LEVEL JET HAS WEAKENED A TAD.

OVERALL...SCATTERED HIT AND MISS SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
AFTERNOON.  WE MAY SEE THEM EXPAND A BIT INTO EASTERN MA/RHODE
ISLAND BY AFTERNOON AS SURFACE INSTABILITY INCREASES...DESPITE
WEAKENING WIND FIELDS.  NOT LOOKING AT A WASHOUT THOUGH AS MUCH OF
THE TIME WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER IN A SPECIFIC LOCATION.

THE OTHER MAIN FEATURE WE ARE WATCHING IS THE SYNOPTIC RAIN SHIELD
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.  WHILE
LACK OF BAROCLINICITY WILL LIKELY KEEP MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
OFFSHORE...APPEARS IT MAY CLIP THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND
COAST FOR A FEW HOURS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
THIS IS MAINLY FOR THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET...BUT PERHAPS GETTING A
BIT FURTHER NORTHWEST THAN THAT FOR A FEW HOURS.

HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON ARE TRICKY.  LOTS OF CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE INTERIOR SHOULD KEEP HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S.  STILL RATHER HUMID THOUGH GIVEN DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S.
ACROSS PORTIONS OF INTERIOR SOUTH EASTERN MA/RI...WILL LIKELY SEE
SOME 80 DEGREE HIGHS WHERE SUN WAS OUT THIS MORNING.  CLOUDS SHOULD
INCREASE IN THIS REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD.  CERTAINLY A DRAMATIC CHANGE
BACK TO SUMMER WEATHER AFTER THE VERY CHILLY START EARLY YESTERDAY
MORNING!

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...

NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS
MORNING ZIPS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO AREAL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED AND CONFINED TO THE INTERIOR.
OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY TONIGHT AND MILD AS FRONTAL PASSAGE DOESN/T
OCCUR UNTIL MONDAY MORNING.

MONDAY...

COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING WITH A SECONDARY
FRONT PASSING IN THE AFTERNOON. MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO JUST
EXPECTING SOME CLOUDS MIXING WITH THE SUNSHINE. STILL MILD AS COOLER
AIR DOESN`T ARRIVE UNTIL MON NIGHT. SO EXPECTING HIGHS MON WELL INTO
THE 70S INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS GIVEN WESTERLY WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE WEEK
* COOL TEMPERATURES THROUGH WED...MODERATING BY THE WEEKEND

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
21.00Z LONG RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM DESPITE THE VARIANCE IN OVERALL PATTERN
LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS VARIANCE IS APPARENT IN
TELECONNECTIONS...WHERE ALTHOUGH AO/NAO ARE POSITIVE...HOW
STRONGLY POSITIVE IT WILL BE REMAINS IN QUESTION. IN SPITE OF
THIS...FAIRLY LOCKED PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS IS FAVORED AS
CUTOFF LOW PRES/LONGWAVE TROF IN THE E GIVES WAY TO BUILDING
RIDGE. THIS RIDGE IS THE RESULT OF A COMBINATION OF A SRN STREAM
RIDGE CURRENTLY ACROSS THE SW/TEXAS WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH THE
PERSISTENT WRN ATLANTIC RIDGE. THEREFORE...AFTER A COOL AND
DIURNALLY CLOUDY START TO THE WEEK...A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY WX PREVAILS THANKS TO STRONG
1035+ HIGH PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. GIVEN
THE AGREEMENT HERE...A BLEND OF GUIDANCE WILL BE USED AS A
BASELINE.

DETAILS...

MON NIGHT INTO WED...
BAFFIN ISLAND CUTOFF IS CONNECTED TO LONGWAVE TROF WITH BASE
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE TO THE E THROUGH
THE EARLY HALF OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE PERSISTENT COOL
DRAW WITH N COMPONENT TO THE FLOW...SUSPECT THIS WILL BE THE
COOLEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL CLOUD
COVER UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO COOL
TUE AND MORESO ON WED THANKS TO A COOLER START. H85 TEMPS REMAIN
CLOSE TO +6C EACH DAY...SO NOT QUITE AS COLD AS THE LATE WEEK COOL
AIRMASS OF THIS PAST WEEK. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW-UPPER 60S EACH
DAY. REGARDING LOWS...TUE NIGHT IS LIKELY TO BE THE COOLER OF THE
TWO THANKS TO CENTER OF HIGH PRES MORE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD YIELDING
WEAK FLOW. ALTHOUGH WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING SOME FROST IS
POSSIBLE EITHER NIGHT IN THE COOLER VALLEYS PARTICULARLY IN NW MA
OR SW NH.

THU INTO THE WEEKEND...
HIGH PRES WILL BE SLOWLY CRESTING OVER THE REGION WITH TIME. LOW-
MID LVL HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE SUGGESTING INCREASING TEMPS
THROUGH THE COLUMN...THEREFORE...MODERATE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED EACH
DAY AS WELL. H85 TEMPS START ABOUT +9C THU...THEN MAY REACH
BETWEEN +12C AND +14C BY SUN. WITH MODERATION EACH DAY SUSPECT
THAT HIGHS WILL START NEAR NORMAL...INCREASING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY
THE WEEKEND...AT WHICH POINT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S FOR THE
WEEKEND.

FOR WHAT IT/S WORTH...EVEN THOUGH THE BLOCKING PATTERN SUGGESTS
THE DRY HIGH PRES AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES...THERE IS
AN INVERTED TROF IN THE MID ATLANTIC WITH HIGHER MOISTURE WHICH
MAY NEED TO BE WATCHED. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW AS A
DRY PATTERN SUCH AS THIS GENERALLY SUGGESTS POSITIVE
FEEDBACK...MAINTAINING ITSELF. HOWEVER...WITH THE VARIANCE EVIDENT
IN THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT LATE IN THE WEEK...MAY NEED TO
MONITOR THIS INVERTED TROF AND SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WHICH COULD
YIELD A CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM
BOTH THE GEFS AND ECENS DO BRING THIS TROF CLOSER TO NEW ENGLAND
THAN DO OTHER MEMBERS AND THE OPERATIONAL MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

12Z UPDATE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MIX OF MVFR/IFR IN A LINE FROM CT THROUGH CENTRAL AND WESTERN MA
INTO SRN NH. THIS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING UNTIL LEFTOVER
SHOWERS COME TO AN END. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH SOME LOW
CLOUDS MAY MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST MA LATE IN THE DAY.

TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT MVFR/IFR CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS
EARLY HALF OF THE NIGHT. CHANCE OF A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS
AROUND 06Z ESPECIALLY WESTERN- CENTRAL MA INTO NH.

MONDAY...VFR. MODEST W WIND. DRY RUNWAYS.

KBOS TERMINAL..MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF ON TIMING BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR DOMINATES THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW POCKETS
OF EARLY MORNING FOG AT TYPICALLY PRONE TERMINALS EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...

MODEST S-SE WINDS WITH HEAVY SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN WATERS. VSBY
REDUCED IN HEAVY RAIN AND PATCHY FOG.

TONIGHT...

SHOWERS DIMINISH. SEAS BUILD ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS THUS SCA IN
EFFECT. SSW WINDS SHIFT TO WEST TOWARD SUNRISE.

MONDAY...

WEST WINDS YIELD GOOD VSBY AND DRY WEATHER. HOWEVER SEAS REMAIN
ROUGH FROM LEFTOVER SOUTH SWELL COMBINED WITH DEVELOPING WEST WIND
WAVES.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

5-8 FT SEAS AND WINDS BOTH DIMINISH MON NIGHT...SUCH THAT SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY TO END. ALTHOUGH THE SWELL MAY LINGER
A BIT INTO TUE...EVEN THESE SHOULD DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS EARLY. OTHERWISE...MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD UNDER HIGH PRES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY



000
FXUS61 KOKX 211211
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
811 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL PASS EAST OF THE
REGION TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON MONDAY...AND REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HEAVY RAIN BANDING HAS BEEN DISRUPTED AS LLJ AND AXIS OF SUB-
TROPICAL MOISTURE HAS MOVED EAST AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
BOUNDARY HAS WASHED OUT. OVERNIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGED FROM
0.50 TO 1.50 WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

OTHERWISE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF
LONG ISLAND TODAY. AS A RESULT...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE MAJORITY OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL ACROSS THE LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT.
THERE MAY ALSO BE AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO...HOWEVER
THE CHANCES ARE LOW AND WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW.
THE HEAVIEST OF THE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING LOW WILL
REMAIN FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE NOT TO IMPACT THE AREA.

WE SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING BY AFTERNOON...WITH SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER
WEATHER. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN SECTIONS
OF THE CWA...WHERE SOME SHOWERS COULD BE POSSIBLE WITH AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S
IN MANY PLACES EXCEPT FAR EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND FAR SE CT WHERE CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS WILL BE SLOWER TO DEPART...AND IN THE HIGHER INTERIOR
ELEVATIONS.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC OCEAN FACING
BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATING THE FRONT WILL COME THROUGH MOSTLY DRY. WILL KEEP SOME
CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH MIDNIGHT FROM WESTERN LONG ISLAND
AND WESTERN CT POINTS WEST. ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTION...THINKING
THE SHOWERS WILL NOT MAKE IT OUT THIS FAR. EXPECT CLEARING AFTER THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 55-60
INLAND...AND 60-65 IN NYC METRO AND ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT LIKELY JUST TO THE EAST OF
THE AREA. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST TO PASS EAST OF THE
AREA LATE MONDAY. AS OF NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH THE DRY FORECAST TO
START MONDAY WITH THE FRONT EAST OF THE REGION AND DOWNSLOPING
NORTHWESTERLY WIND AIDING IN DRYING THE LOWER LEVELS.

A STRONG RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
THE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE A
COOL CANADIAN AIR MASS BUILD IN MONDAY AND THEN REMAINS THROUGH
SATURDAY. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE COOLER THAN
NORMAL...THEN A WARMING TREND SETS UP FOR THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY AS THE AIR MASS MODIFIES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK COASTAL LOW TRACKS NE...JUST SE OF THE AREA TODAY...WITH A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT.

WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CIGS THIS MORNING EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
IMPROVE THROUGH MVFR TO VFR THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT IS A BIT UNCERTAIN...WITH SLOWER
IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS EXPECTED FOR EASTERN TERMINALS. KGON LIKELY
REMAINS MVFR OR LOWER FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.

SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA THREAT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY
KISP/KGON...ISOLATED THREAT ELSEWHERE.

THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT WESTERN
TERMINALS. ISOLATED -SHRA POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN TERMINALS...WITH
COLD FRONT. BRIEF MVFR OR LOWER CONDS POSSIBLE AT KISP/KBDR LATE
AFT/EVE...LIKELY MVFR OR LOWER CONDS AT KGON...UNTIL COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE BETWEEN 04Z AND 08Z FROM W TO E.

LIGHT E/SE FLOW ACROSS TERMINALS THIS MORNING. FLOW SHOULD BECOME
S/SE FOR COASTAL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON...SW FOR KSWF AND
POSSIBLY KEWR/KTEB. LIGHT SW FLOW THIS EVENING FOR ALL TERMINALS
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...SHIFT TO THE NW 8 TO 12 KT BEHIND THE FRONT
LATE TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. NW WINDS G20KT POSSIBLE...BECOMING N
MONDAY NIGHT.
.TUESDAY-THURSDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS ARE BETWEEN 4 AND 5 FT. WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE
HAS SEAS REACHING SCA LEVELS EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN SUBSIDING FOR
A BRIEF PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE INCREASING ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT
AND MONDAY. AS A RESULT...HAVE PUT UP A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS ON THE THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH MONDAY.

SEAS INCREASE TONIGHT AS SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PASSING TO
THE SE ARRIVE.

A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING EAST OF THE FORECAST WATERS EARLY MONDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE WEST. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS
WILL CONTINUE AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS MONDAY...AND SOME GUSTS DURING
MONDAY ON ALL THE FORECAST WATERS MAY REACH 20-25 KT AT TIMES. SEAS
WILL SUBSIDE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS INTO AT LEAST FRIDAY WITH
WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

LESS THAN 1/4 INCH OF RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. THEN DRY MON
THROUGH SAT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC
NEAR TERM...BC
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...BC/MET
HYDROLOGY...BC







000
FXUS61 KOKX 211211
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
811 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL PASS EAST OF THE
REGION TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON MONDAY...AND REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HEAVY RAIN BANDING HAS BEEN DISRUPTED AS LLJ AND AXIS OF SUB-
TROPICAL MOISTURE HAS MOVED EAST AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
BOUNDARY HAS WASHED OUT. OVERNIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGED FROM
0.50 TO 1.50 WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

OTHERWISE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF
LONG ISLAND TODAY. AS A RESULT...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE MAJORITY OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL ACROSS THE LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT.
THERE MAY ALSO BE AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO...HOWEVER
THE CHANCES ARE LOW AND WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW.
THE HEAVIEST OF THE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING LOW WILL
REMAIN FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE NOT TO IMPACT THE AREA.

WE SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING BY AFTERNOON...WITH SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER
WEATHER. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN SECTIONS
OF THE CWA...WHERE SOME SHOWERS COULD BE POSSIBLE WITH AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S
IN MANY PLACES EXCEPT FAR EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND FAR SE CT WHERE CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS WILL BE SLOWER TO DEPART...AND IN THE HIGHER INTERIOR
ELEVATIONS.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC OCEAN FACING
BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATING THE FRONT WILL COME THROUGH MOSTLY DRY. WILL KEEP SOME
CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH MIDNIGHT FROM WESTERN LONG ISLAND
AND WESTERN CT POINTS WEST. ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTION...THINKING
THE SHOWERS WILL NOT MAKE IT OUT THIS FAR. EXPECT CLEARING AFTER THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 55-60
INLAND...AND 60-65 IN NYC METRO AND ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT LIKELY JUST TO THE EAST OF
THE AREA. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST TO PASS EAST OF THE
AREA LATE MONDAY. AS OF NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH THE DRY FORECAST TO
START MONDAY WITH THE FRONT EAST OF THE REGION AND DOWNSLOPING
NORTHWESTERLY WIND AIDING IN DRYING THE LOWER LEVELS.

A STRONG RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
THE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE A
COOL CANADIAN AIR MASS BUILD IN MONDAY AND THEN REMAINS THROUGH
SATURDAY. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE COOLER THAN
NORMAL...THEN A WARMING TREND SETS UP FOR THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY AS THE AIR MASS MODIFIES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK COASTAL LOW TRACKS NE...JUST SE OF THE AREA TODAY...WITH A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT.

WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CIGS THIS MORNING EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
IMPROVE THROUGH MVFR TO VFR THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT IS A BIT UNCERTAIN...WITH SLOWER
IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS EXPECTED FOR EASTERN TERMINALS. KGON LIKELY
REMAINS MVFR OR LOWER FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.

SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA THREAT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY
KISP/KGON...ISOLATED THREAT ELSEWHERE.

THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT WESTERN
TERMINALS. ISOLATED -SHRA POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN TERMINALS...WITH
COLD FRONT. BRIEF MVFR OR LOWER CONDS POSSIBLE AT KISP/KBDR LATE
AFT/EVE...LIKELY MVFR OR LOWER CONDS AT KGON...UNTIL COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE BETWEEN 04Z AND 08Z FROM W TO E.

LIGHT E/SE FLOW ACROSS TERMINALS THIS MORNING. FLOW SHOULD BECOME
S/SE FOR COASTAL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON...SW FOR KSWF AND
POSSIBLY KEWR/KTEB. LIGHT SW FLOW THIS EVENING FOR ALL TERMINALS
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...SHIFT TO THE NW 8 TO 12 KT BEHIND THE FRONT
LATE TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. NW WINDS G20KT POSSIBLE...BECOMING N
MONDAY NIGHT.
.TUESDAY-THURSDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS ARE BETWEEN 4 AND 5 FT. WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE
HAS SEAS REACHING SCA LEVELS EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN SUBSIDING FOR
A BRIEF PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE INCREASING ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT
AND MONDAY. AS A RESULT...HAVE PUT UP A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS ON THE THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH MONDAY.

SEAS INCREASE TONIGHT AS SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PASSING TO
THE SE ARRIVE.

A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING EAST OF THE FORECAST WATERS EARLY MONDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE WEST. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS
WILL CONTINUE AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS MONDAY...AND SOME GUSTS DURING
MONDAY ON ALL THE FORECAST WATERS MAY REACH 20-25 KT AT TIMES. SEAS
WILL SUBSIDE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS INTO AT LEAST FRIDAY WITH
WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

LESS THAN 1/4 INCH OF RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. THEN DRY MON
THROUGH SAT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC
NEAR TERM...BC
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...BC/MET
HYDROLOGY...BC






000
FXUS61 KBOX 211122
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
722 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THIS MORNING MAINLY OVER
CONNECTICUT...WESTERN-CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS INTO SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE WILL BECOME LESS NUMEROUS THIS AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO
EAST. WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS TODAY WILL BE REPLACED BY DRIER AND
LESS HUMID WEATHER MONDAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEEK AHEAD...WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES THE FIRST HALF...AND WARMER TEMPS THE LATTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
7 AM UPDATE...
LEFTOVER CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DIMINISH IN A LINE FROM SW CT
INTO SE NH. THIS AS THE OFFSHORE INVERTED TROF WEAKENS.
THEREFORE...SUSPECT SHOWERS BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD THROUGH
MORNING ALTHOUGH WILL NEED TO WATCH OFFSHORE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
AS OFFSHORE LOW PRES DEVELOPS. THESE MAY SLIDE ACROSS SE MA LATE
IN THE DAY. OTHERWISE...BULK OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED
WITH A COLD FRONT REMAINS TO THE W THROUGH EVENING. MAY SEE BREAKS
AS SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE PRONOUNCED INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS LONG
ISLAND...NYC AND THEN DRAPED ALONG THE NJ COAST. THIS BOUNDARY IS
THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND ISOLATED
TSTMS. THIS INVERTED TROUGH HAS ITS ROOTS IN A TROPICAL PLUME OF
MOISTURE FROM OFF THE MID ATLC COAST NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WITH PWATS UP TO 1.6 INCHES...ABOUT +1 STD ABOVE CLIMO.
MARGINAL INSTABILITY ALOFT WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALMOST MOIST
ADIABATIC AT 6C/KM. THIS IS RESULTING IN EMBEDDED TSTMS WITHIN THESE
BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN.

THE RAP13 HAS BEEN SIMULATING THESE RAIN BANDS THE BEST OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE HRRR. THE RAP13 SHOWS OVER AN INCH OF TOTAL
RAINFALL POSSIBLE BY MIDDAY ACROSS CT INTO WESTERN-CENTRAL MA...WITH
LESS ELSEWHERE. THE INVERTED TROUGH APPEARS TO WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG WITH TROPICAL PLUME MOVING OFFSHORE AND BEING REPLACED BY MID
LEVEL DRY SLOT AFTER 18Z. THUS THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS WILL BE THIS
MORNING.

AS SOME SURFACE HEATING MATERIALIZES THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH DEW
PTS CLIMBING TO 65-70 ALL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST 750 TO 1500 J/KG OF
CAPE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER DRY SLOT OVERSPREADS THE REGION AND THIS MAY
PROVIDE A CAP AND RESULT IN SHOWERS BECOMING LESS NUMEROUS THIS
AFTERNOON.

AS FOR SEVERE WEATHER...THIS MORNING STRONGEST WIND FIELDS INCLUDING
0-1KM SHEAR ARE ACROSS NORTHERN MA AND SOUTHWEST NH. MEANWHILE BEST
INSTABILITY REMAINS OFFSHORE. THUS SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ARE NOT
COLOCATED. HENCE RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS VERY LOW. AS FOR
THIS AFTERNOON...MARGINAL SB INSTABILITY DEVELOPS OVER THE INTERIOR
BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS ALSO MARGINAL AT LESS THAN 30 KT. IN
ADDITION DRY SLOT OVERSPREADING THE REGION SHOULD MINIMIZE THE RISK
OF STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS.

THE MAIN RAIN SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID ATLC TROUGH MAY CLIP
CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE EXPECT A SUMMER-ISH AFTERNOON WITH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S
AND POSSIBLY NEARING 80 ALONG WITH DEW PTS 65 TO 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...

NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS
MORNING ZIPS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO AREAL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED AND CONFINED TO THE INTERIOR.
OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY TONIGHT AND MILD AS FRONTAL PASSAGE DOESN/T
OCCUR UNTIL MONDAY MORNING.

MONDAY...

COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING WITH A SECONDARY
FRONT PASSING IN THE AFTERNOON. MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO JUST
EXPECTING SOME CLOUDS MIXING WITH THE SUNSHINE. STILL MILD AS COOLER
AIR DOESN`T ARRIVE UNTIL MON NIGHT. SO EXPECTING HIGHS MON WELL INTO
THE 70S INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS GIVEN WESTERLY WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE WEEK
* COOL TEMPERATURES THROUGH WED...MODERATING BY THE WEEKEND

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
21.00Z LONG RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM DESPITE THE VARIANCE IN OVERALL PATTERN
LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS VARIANCE IS APPARENT IN
TELECONNECTIONS...WHERE ALTHOUGH AO/NAO ARE POSITIVE...HOW
STRONGLY POSITIVE IT WILL BE REMAINS IN QUESTION. IN SPITE OF
THIS...FAIRLY LOCKED PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS IS FAVORED AS
CUTOFF LOW PRES/LONGWAVE TROF IN THE E GIVES WAY TO BUILDING
RIDGE. THIS RIDGE IS THE RESULT OF A COMBINATION OF A SRN STREAM
RIDGE CURRENTLY ACROSS THE SW/TEXAS WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH THE
PERSISTENT WRN ATLANTIC RIDGE. THEREFORE...AFTER A COOL AND
DIURNALLY CLOUDY START TO THE WEEK...A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY WX PREVAILS THANKS TO STRONG
1035+ HIGH PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. GIVEN
THE AGREEMENT HERE...A BLEND OF GUIDANCE WILL BE USED AS A
BASELINE.

DETAILS...

MON NIGHT INTO WED...
BAFFIN ISLAND CUTOFF IS CONNECTED TO LONGWAVE TROF WITH BASE
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE TO THE E THROUGH
THE EARLY HALF OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE PERSISTENT COOL
DRAW WITH N COMPONENT TO THE FLOW...SUSPECT THIS WILL BE THE
COOLEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL CLOUD
COVER UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO COOL
TUE AND MORESO ON WED THANKS TO A COOLER START. H85 TEMPS REMAIN
CLOSE TO +6C EACH DAY...SO NOT QUITE AS COLD AS THE LATE WEEK COOL
AIRMASS OF THIS PAST WEEK. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW-UPPER 60S EACH
DAY. REGARDING LOWS...TUE NIGHT IS LIKELY TO BE THE COOLER OF THE
TWO THANKS TO CENTER OF HIGH PRES MORE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD YIELDING
WEAK FLOW. ALTHOUGH WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING SOME FROST IS
POSSIBLE EITHER NIGHT IN THE COOLER VALLEYS PARTICULARLY IN NW MA
OR SW NH.

THU INTO THE WEEKEND...
HIGH PRES WILL BE SLOWLY CRESTING OVER THE REGION WITH TIME. LOW-
MID LVL HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE SUGGESTING INCREASING TEMPS
THROUGH THE COLUMN...THEREFORE...MODERATE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED EACH
DAY AS WELL. H85 TEMPS START ABOUT +9C THU...THEN MAY REACH
BETWEEN +12C AND +14C BY SUN. WITH MODERATION EACH DAY SUSPECT
THAT HIGHS WILL START NEAR NORMAL...INCREASING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY
THE WEEKEND...AT WHICH POINT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S FOR THE
WEEKEND.

FOR WHAT IT/S WORTH...EVEN THOUGH THE BLOCKING PATTERN SUGGESTS
THE DRY HIGH PRES AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES...THERE IS
AN INVERTED TROF IN THE MID ATLANTIC WITH HIGHER MOISTURE WHICH
MAY NEED TO BE WATCHED. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW AS A
DRY PATTERN SUCH AS THIS GENERALLY SUGGESTS POSITIVE
FEEDBACK...MAINTAINING ITSELF. HOWEVER...WITH THE VARIANCE EVIDENT
IN THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT LATE IN THE WEEK...MAY NEED TO
MONITOR THIS INVERTED TROF AND SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WHICH COULD
YIELD A CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM
BOTH THE GEFS AND ECENS DO BRING THIS TROF CLOSER TO NEW ENGLAND
THAN DO OTHER MEMBERS AND THE OPERATIONAL MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

12Z UPDATE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MIX OF MVFR/IFR IN A LINE FROM CT THROUGH CENTRAL AND WESTERN MA
INTO SRN NH. THIS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING UNTIL LEFTOVER
SHOWERS COME TO AN END. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH SOME LOW
CLOUDS MAY MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST MA LATE IN THE DAY.

TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT MVFR/IFR CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS
EARLY HALF OF THE NIGHT. CHANCE OF A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS
AROUND 06Z ESPECIALLY WESTERN- CENTRAL MA INTO NH.

MONDAY...VFR. MODEST W WIND. DRY RUNWAYS.

KBOS TERMINAL..MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF ON TIMING BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR DOMINATES THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW POCKETS
OF EARLY MORNING FOG AT TYPICALLY PRONE TERMINALS EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...

MODEST S-SE WINDS WITH HEAVY SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN WATERS. VSBY
REDUCED IN HEAVY RAIN AND PATCHY FOG.

TONIGHT...

SHOWERS DIMINISH. SEAS BUILD ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS THUS SCA IN
EFFECT. SSW WINDS SHIFT TO WEST TOWARD SUNRISE.

MONDAY...

WEST WINDS YIELD GOOD VSBY AND DRY WEATHER. HOWEVER SEAS REMAIN
ROUGH FROM LEFTOVER SOUTH SWELL COMBINED WITH DEVELOPING WEST WIND
WAVES.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

5-8 FT SEAS AND WINDS BOTH DIMINISH MON NIGHT...SUCH THAT SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY TO END. ALTHOUGH THE SWELL MAY LINGER
A BIT INTO TUE...EVEN THESE SHOULD DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS EARLY. OTHERWISE...MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD UNDER HIGH PRES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/DOODY
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY



000
FXUS61 KBOX 211122
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
722 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THIS MORNING MAINLY OVER
CONNECTICUT...WESTERN-CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS INTO SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE WILL BECOME LESS NUMEROUS THIS AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO
EAST. WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS TODAY WILL BE REPLACED BY DRIER AND
LESS HUMID WEATHER MONDAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEEK AHEAD...WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES THE FIRST HALF...AND WARMER TEMPS THE LATTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
7 AM UPDATE...
LEFTOVER CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DIMINISH IN A LINE FROM SW CT
INTO SE NH. THIS AS THE OFFSHORE INVERTED TROF WEAKENS.
THEREFORE...SUSPECT SHOWERS BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD THROUGH
MORNING ALTHOUGH WILL NEED TO WATCH OFFSHORE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
AS OFFSHORE LOW PRES DEVELOPS. THESE MAY SLIDE ACROSS SE MA LATE
IN THE DAY. OTHERWISE...BULK OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED
WITH A COLD FRONT REMAINS TO THE W THROUGH EVENING. MAY SEE BREAKS
AS SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE PRONOUNCED INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS LONG
ISLAND...NYC AND THEN DRAPED ALONG THE NJ COAST. THIS BOUNDARY IS
THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND ISOLATED
TSTMS. THIS INVERTED TROUGH HAS ITS ROOTS IN A TROPICAL PLUME OF
MOISTURE FROM OFF THE MID ATLC COAST NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WITH PWATS UP TO 1.6 INCHES...ABOUT +1 STD ABOVE CLIMO.
MARGINAL INSTABILITY ALOFT WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALMOST MOIST
ADIABATIC AT 6C/KM. THIS IS RESULTING IN EMBEDDED TSTMS WITHIN THESE
BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN.

THE RAP13 HAS BEEN SIMULATING THESE RAIN BANDS THE BEST OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE HRRR. THE RAP13 SHOWS OVER AN INCH OF TOTAL
RAINFALL POSSIBLE BY MIDDAY ACROSS CT INTO WESTERN-CENTRAL MA...WITH
LESS ELSEWHERE. THE INVERTED TROUGH APPEARS TO WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG WITH TROPICAL PLUME MOVING OFFSHORE AND BEING REPLACED BY MID
LEVEL DRY SLOT AFTER 18Z. THUS THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS WILL BE THIS
MORNING.

AS SOME SURFACE HEATING MATERIALIZES THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH DEW
PTS CLIMBING TO 65-70 ALL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST 750 TO 1500 J/KG OF
CAPE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER DRY SLOT OVERSPREADS THE REGION AND THIS MAY
PROVIDE A CAP AND RESULT IN SHOWERS BECOMING LESS NUMEROUS THIS
AFTERNOON.

AS FOR SEVERE WEATHER...THIS MORNING STRONGEST WIND FIELDS INCLUDING
0-1KM SHEAR ARE ACROSS NORTHERN MA AND SOUTHWEST NH. MEANWHILE BEST
INSTABILITY REMAINS OFFSHORE. THUS SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ARE NOT
COLOCATED. HENCE RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS VERY LOW. AS FOR
THIS AFTERNOON...MARGINAL SB INSTABILITY DEVELOPS OVER THE INTERIOR
BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS ALSO MARGINAL AT LESS THAN 30 KT. IN
ADDITION DRY SLOT OVERSPREADING THE REGION SHOULD MINIMIZE THE RISK
OF STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS.

THE MAIN RAIN SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID ATLC TROUGH MAY CLIP
CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE EXPECT A SUMMER-ISH AFTERNOON WITH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S
AND POSSIBLY NEARING 80 ALONG WITH DEW PTS 65 TO 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...

NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS
MORNING ZIPS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO AREAL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED AND CONFINED TO THE INTERIOR.
OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY TONIGHT AND MILD AS FRONTAL PASSAGE DOESN/T
OCCUR UNTIL MONDAY MORNING.

MONDAY...

COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING WITH A SECONDARY
FRONT PASSING IN THE AFTERNOON. MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO JUST
EXPECTING SOME CLOUDS MIXING WITH THE SUNSHINE. STILL MILD AS COOLER
AIR DOESN`T ARRIVE UNTIL MON NIGHT. SO EXPECTING HIGHS MON WELL INTO
THE 70S INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS GIVEN WESTERLY WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE WEEK
* COOL TEMPERATURES THROUGH WED...MODERATING BY THE WEEKEND

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
21.00Z LONG RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM DESPITE THE VARIANCE IN OVERALL PATTERN
LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS VARIANCE IS APPARENT IN
TELECONNECTIONS...WHERE ALTHOUGH AO/NAO ARE POSITIVE...HOW
STRONGLY POSITIVE IT WILL BE REMAINS IN QUESTION. IN SPITE OF
THIS...FAIRLY LOCKED PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS IS FAVORED AS
CUTOFF LOW PRES/LONGWAVE TROF IN THE E GIVES WAY TO BUILDING
RIDGE. THIS RIDGE IS THE RESULT OF A COMBINATION OF A SRN STREAM
RIDGE CURRENTLY ACROSS THE SW/TEXAS WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH THE
PERSISTENT WRN ATLANTIC RIDGE. THEREFORE...AFTER A COOL AND
DIURNALLY CLOUDY START TO THE WEEK...A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY WX PREVAILS THANKS TO STRONG
1035+ HIGH PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. GIVEN
THE AGREEMENT HERE...A BLEND OF GUIDANCE WILL BE USED AS A
BASELINE.

DETAILS...

MON NIGHT INTO WED...
BAFFIN ISLAND CUTOFF IS CONNECTED TO LONGWAVE TROF WITH BASE
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE TO THE E THROUGH
THE EARLY HALF OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE PERSISTENT COOL
DRAW WITH N COMPONENT TO THE FLOW...SUSPECT THIS WILL BE THE
COOLEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL CLOUD
COVER UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO COOL
TUE AND MORESO ON WED THANKS TO A COOLER START. H85 TEMPS REMAIN
CLOSE TO +6C EACH DAY...SO NOT QUITE AS COLD AS THE LATE WEEK COOL
AIRMASS OF THIS PAST WEEK. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW-UPPER 60S EACH
DAY. REGARDING LOWS...TUE NIGHT IS LIKELY TO BE THE COOLER OF THE
TWO THANKS TO CENTER OF HIGH PRES MORE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD YIELDING
WEAK FLOW. ALTHOUGH WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING SOME FROST IS
POSSIBLE EITHER NIGHT IN THE COOLER VALLEYS PARTICULARLY IN NW MA
OR SW NH.

THU INTO THE WEEKEND...
HIGH PRES WILL BE SLOWLY CRESTING OVER THE REGION WITH TIME. LOW-
MID LVL HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE SUGGESTING INCREASING TEMPS
THROUGH THE COLUMN...THEREFORE...MODERATE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED EACH
DAY AS WELL. H85 TEMPS START ABOUT +9C THU...THEN MAY REACH
BETWEEN +12C AND +14C BY SUN. WITH MODERATION EACH DAY SUSPECT
THAT HIGHS WILL START NEAR NORMAL...INCREASING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY
THE WEEKEND...AT WHICH POINT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S FOR THE
WEEKEND.

FOR WHAT IT/S WORTH...EVEN THOUGH THE BLOCKING PATTERN SUGGESTS
THE DRY HIGH PRES AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES...THERE IS
AN INVERTED TROF IN THE MID ATLANTIC WITH HIGHER MOISTURE WHICH
MAY NEED TO BE WATCHED. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW AS A
DRY PATTERN SUCH AS THIS GENERALLY SUGGESTS POSITIVE
FEEDBACK...MAINTAINING ITSELF. HOWEVER...WITH THE VARIANCE EVIDENT
IN THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT LATE IN THE WEEK...MAY NEED TO
MONITOR THIS INVERTED TROF AND SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WHICH COULD
YIELD A CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM
BOTH THE GEFS AND ECENS DO BRING THIS TROF CLOSER TO NEW ENGLAND
THAN DO OTHER MEMBERS AND THE OPERATIONAL MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

12Z UPDATE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MIX OF MVFR/IFR IN A LINE FROM CT THROUGH CENTRAL AND WESTERN MA
INTO SRN NH. THIS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING UNTIL LEFTOVER
SHOWERS COME TO AN END. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH SOME LOW
CLOUDS MAY MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST MA LATE IN THE DAY.

TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT MVFR/IFR CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS
EARLY HALF OF THE NIGHT. CHANCE OF A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS
AROUND 06Z ESPECIALLY WESTERN- CENTRAL MA INTO NH.

MONDAY...VFR. MODEST W WIND. DRY RUNWAYS.

KBOS TERMINAL..MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF ON TIMING BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR DOMINATES THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW POCKETS
OF EARLY MORNING FOG AT TYPICALLY PRONE TERMINALS EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...

MODEST S-SE WINDS WITH HEAVY SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN WATERS. VSBY
REDUCED IN HEAVY RAIN AND PATCHY FOG.

TONIGHT...

SHOWERS DIMINISH. SEAS BUILD ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS THUS SCA IN
EFFECT. SSW WINDS SHIFT TO WEST TOWARD SUNRISE.

MONDAY...

WEST WINDS YIELD GOOD VSBY AND DRY WEATHER. HOWEVER SEAS REMAIN
ROUGH FROM LEFTOVER SOUTH SWELL COMBINED WITH DEVELOPING WEST WIND
WAVES.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

5-8 FT SEAS AND WINDS BOTH DIMINISH MON NIGHT...SUCH THAT SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY TO END. ALTHOUGH THE SWELL MAY LINGER
A BIT INTO TUE...EVEN THESE SHOULD DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS EARLY. OTHERWISE...MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD UNDER HIGH PRES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/DOODY
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KALY 211045
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
645 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A MILD DAY IS EXPECTED FOR THIS LAST OFFICIAL WEEKEND OF
SUMMER.  HOWEVER...THIS WILL NOT LAST TOO LONG AS A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM TO THE REGION TODAY. COOLER
AND BRISK CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL RETURN
FOR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...MOST OF NEXT WEEK
LOOKS DRY...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...THEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM EDT...MOST OF THE SHOWERS ACROSS THE NYC/LI REGION HAS
REMAINED JUST EAST OF NW CT.  WE HAVE THEREFORE LOWERED POPS FROM
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  OTHERWISE...STRATUS DECK WAS SLOWLY
EXPANDING ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...TACONICS...WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND AND INTO THE DACKS.  SHOWERS WERE DEVELOPING OVER THE TUG
HILL AS WE WILL KEEP POPS INTO THE DACKS THROUGH THIS EARLY
MORNING.  OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME.

AS OF 330 AM EDT...H2O VAPOR LOOP THIS MORNING DEPICTS A COUPLE OF
NOTABLE WAVES THAT WILL HAVE AN IMPACT TO OUR REGION TODAY. THE
FIRST WAVE WAS DEVELOPING JUST EAST OF THE SOUTHEAST COASTLINE.
THE SECOND WAVE AS QUICKLY APPROACHING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION AND THE LAST WAVE WAS FURTHER UPSTREAM APPROACHING LAKE
WINNIPEG. THE MAIN CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE THE COVERAGE OF PRECIP
ACROSS THE REGION. SHOWERS WERE PROGRESSING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS IS AN EXTENSION OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ENTRAINMENT FROM THE ATLANTIC AND THE AFOREMENTIONED
COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT. PER THE LATEST HRRR/HIRESWRF REFLECTIVITY
FORECASTS...EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO PRIMARILY IMPACT LOCATIONS
WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION /MID HUDSON VALLEY...NW
CT AND SOUTHERN BERKS/ THROUGH THIS EARLY MORNING.
MEANWHILE...UPSTREAM WAVE CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST-NORTHEAST. HERE
MORE SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP WITHIN THE HIGHER THETA-E AIR AS WE
WILL INCREASE POPS FOR THE DACKS THROUGH THIS EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.

THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS...THE COASTAL WAVE CONTINUES TO
EXHIBIT SLOW INTENSIFICATION. FURTHERMORE...UPSTREAM WAVE
APPROACHES THE CENTRAL-EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. AN AREA OF
SUBSIDENCE SHOULD EVOLVE ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND INTO
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AS THE COASTAL WAVE TRACKS WELL OFFSHORE. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW TIME FOR OUR REGION TO FULLY FEEL THIS WARM SECTOR
WITH BREAKS OF SUNSHINE. H850 TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB WELL
INTO THE MID TEENS WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO
APPROACH 80F FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND 70S ELSEWHERE.

AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD...SURFACE DEWPOINTS TOO WILL CLIMB TO
AROUND 60F OR GREATER FOR THE REGION. AS THE UPSTREAM WAVE
APPROACHES WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
WILL INCREASE. PER COORDINATION FROM SPC...THE ENTIRE REGION IS
NOW WITHIN A "SEE TEXT" WITH 5% PROBABILITIES. 4KM SPC WRF
REFLECTIVITY ALONG WITH THE HRRR AND LOCAL HIRESWRF SHOW A SCT-BKN
LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS EASTERN NY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SBCAPES CLIMB INTO THE MID 100S J/KG
WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEARS CLIMBING TOWARD 50KTS. SO A LOW CAPE AND
HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WHERE ANY DEEPER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS /WITH OR WITHOUT
THUNDER/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS OUR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND COUNTIES
THIS EVENING WITH THE CONTINUE THREAT FOR SCT-BKN LINE OF
CONVECTION. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FROPA...THE COLDER UPPER POOL WITH
THE TROUGH AND THE THAT LAST WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP THE CLOUDS AND THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS
WHICH THE BETTER PROBABILITIES WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
FURTHERMORE...LAKE ENHANCEMENT FROM LAKE ONTARIO WILL ALSO ASSIST
WITH DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS DELTA T/S CLIMB ABOVE 13C.

MONDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A RATHER BRISK AND COOL DAY WITH CLOUDS
AND THE CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS. THE HEART OF THE COLD POOL /AOA
0C H850/ WILL BE OVERHEAD COINCIDING WITH A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO PROVIDE GUSTS OVER 20KTS. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE ALMOST
15 DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY/S WITH MAINLY 50S ACROSS THE
TERRAIN AND MID-UPPER 60S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS MAY LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOCATIONS DOWNWIND OF THE CATSKILLS LIKELY
EXPERIENCING CLEARING SKIES INCLUDING EASTERN WINDHAM COUNTY OF
SOUTHERN VT. WITH THE LOSS THE SUNLIGHT...SHOWERS TOO SHOULD
DIMINISH WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING BACK TO THE MID-UPR 30S FOR
THE DACKS AND 40S ELSEWHERE /A REMINDER THAT THE GROWING SEASON
HAS ENDED ACROSS NORTHERN HERKIMER...HAMILTON...NORTHERN WARREN
COUNTIES/.

TUESDAY...MODEL TRENDS ARE FAVORING ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MIGRATING ACROSS THE REGION. FRONTOLYSIS WILL BE UNDERWAY AS THE
THERMAL COLUMN WILL BE WARMING THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING AS HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT. SO THERE WILL BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AS HIGH TEMPS ACHIEVE 65-70F FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS AND LOW-MID 60S FOR THE TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGING AT 500 HPA WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE ENTIRE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK. THE 00Z GEFS
SHOWS 500 HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OF 1-2 STD ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE IN
THE WEEK...WITH ANOMALIES OF 2-3 STD ABOVE NORMAL SITUATED JUST TO
OUR NORTHWEST...WHERE THE CORE OF WHERE THE WARMEST HEIGHTS WILL BE
SITUATED.

AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE STRONG SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTROL THE WEATHER THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK AS WELL. THE HIGH WILL
SLOWLY MOVE FROM OVER UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY TO OFF
THE COAST FOR THURS THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE ALLOW WILL
ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPS WILL
GRADUALLY WARM UP THROUGHOUT THE WEEK...WITH VALLEY HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 ON WED...LOW 70S ON THURS...AND MID 70S FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR EACH NIGHT...AND LOWS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S /SOME UPPER 30S OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN/.
MOST AREAS THAT STILL HAVE THE GROWING SEASON ONGOING LOOK TO AVOID
A FROST/FREEZE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WITH A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE...LOW STRATUS CLOUDS HAVE
ALLOWED FOR MVFR CIGS AT THE VALLEY TAF SITES...AND IFR CIGS AT
KPSF. THE STRATUS HAD GENERALLY REMAINED SOUTH/EAST OF KALB/KGFL
THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT IT HAS STARTED TO CREEP NORTH AND WEST OVER
THE PAST HOUR OR SO...ALLOWING FOR MVFR CIGS TO MOVE INTO THESE
SITES AS WELL.  THE PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES EARLIER DID ALLOW FOR SOME
RADIATIONAL FOG TO DEVELOP AT KGFL...BUT IT APPEARS THAT THIS HAS
BROKEN UP THANKS TO A LIGHT BREEZE AND APPROACHING LOW STRATUS. WE
CANNOT RULE OUT THE STRATUS TO CONTINUE TO EXPAND FURTHER NORTH/WEST
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SO WE WILL KEEP MVFR CIGS THROUGH AT LEAST
MID MORNING.

BY THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS...THE LOW STRATUS SHOULD START TO
ERODE AND CIGS WILL LIKELY RETURN BACK TO VFR AS DAYTIME MIXING
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ALLOWS FOR SOME CLEARING. WHILE CLEARING WILL
TAKE PLACE FIRST FOR THE VALLEY TERMINALS...IT MAY TAKE UNTIL AROUND
NOON FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN AT KPSF.

THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE IN THE DAY WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME RAIN SHOWERS...ESP FOR KGFL...AND A RETURN TO BKN-OVC LOWER
CIGS. FLYING CONDITIONS MAY DROP TO MVFR WITHIN THE PASSING RAIN
SHOWERS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC FOR THUNDER AS WELL...BUT THE
PROBABILITY OF THIS OCCURRING IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT
THIS TIME.

BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT OF THE VALLEY TERMINALS
DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS...BUT LINGERING LOW CLOUDS UPSLOPING
THE TERRAIN MAY ALLOW FOR LOWER CIGS/VSBYS AT KPSF FOR OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. SOME MIST MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE NIGHT...ESP AT
KGFL/KPSF...ALTHOUGH THE EXTENT OF THIS WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON
HOW MUCH RAINFALL OCCURS AND HOW QUICKLY IT CLEAR OUT BEHIND THE
FRONT. FOR NOW...WILL ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS/CIGS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE HIGH ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE
INCREASE PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS...SO EXPECT RH VALUES TO REMAIN
ABOVE 50 PERCENT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WE DRY OUT TUESDAY AS WE
BEGIN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER.

SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 20 MPH TODAY.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST TONIGHT THEN INCREASE IN GUST
MAGNITUDES ON MONDAY WELL OVER 20 MPH AT TIMES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH AND CROSS THE REGION TODAY
BRINGING SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL TO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO GENERALLY BE A TENTH TO A
THIRD OF AN INCH WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ACROSS
ADIRONDACKS.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM







000
FXUS61 KALY 211045
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
645 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A MILD DAY IS EXPECTED FOR THIS LAST OFFICIAL WEEKEND OF
SUMMER.  HOWEVER...THIS WILL NOT LAST TOO LONG AS A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM TO THE REGION TODAY. COOLER
AND BRISK CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL RETURN
FOR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...MOST OF NEXT WEEK
LOOKS DRY...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...THEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM EDT...MOST OF THE SHOWERS ACROSS THE NYC/LI REGION HAS
REMAINED JUST EAST OF NW CT.  WE HAVE THEREFORE LOWERED POPS FROM
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  OTHERWISE...STRATUS DECK WAS SLOWLY
EXPANDING ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...TACONICS...WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND AND INTO THE DACKS.  SHOWERS WERE DEVELOPING OVER THE TUG
HILL AS WE WILL KEEP POPS INTO THE DACKS THROUGH THIS EARLY
MORNING.  OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME.

AS OF 330 AM EDT...H2O VAPOR LOOP THIS MORNING DEPICTS A COUPLE OF
NOTABLE WAVES THAT WILL HAVE AN IMPACT TO OUR REGION TODAY. THE
FIRST WAVE WAS DEVELOPING JUST EAST OF THE SOUTHEAST COASTLINE.
THE SECOND WAVE AS QUICKLY APPROACHING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION AND THE LAST WAVE WAS FURTHER UPSTREAM APPROACHING LAKE
WINNIPEG. THE MAIN CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE THE COVERAGE OF PRECIP
ACROSS THE REGION. SHOWERS WERE PROGRESSING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS IS AN EXTENSION OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ENTRAINMENT FROM THE ATLANTIC AND THE AFOREMENTIONED
COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT. PER THE LATEST HRRR/HIRESWRF REFLECTIVITY
FORECASTS...EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO PRIMARILY IMPACT LOCATIONS
WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION /MID HUDSON VALLEY...NW
CT AND SOUTHERN BERKS/ THROUGH THIS EARLY MORNING.
MEANWHILE...UPSTREAM WAVE CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST-NORTHEAST. HERE
MORE SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP WITHIN THE HIGHER THETA-E AIR AS WE
WILL INCREASE POPS FOR THE DACKS THROUGH THIS EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.

THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS...THE COASTAL WAVE CONTINUES TO
EXHIBIT SLOW INTENSIFICATION. FURTHERMORE...UPSTREAM WAVE
APPROACHES THE CENTRAL-EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. AN AREA OF
SUBSIDENCE SHOULD EVOLVE ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND INTO
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AS THE COASTAL WAVE TRACKS WELL OFFSHORE. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW TIME FOR OUR REGION TO FULLY FEEL THIS WARM SECTOR
WITH BREAKS OF SUNSHINE. H850 TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB WELL
INTO THE MID TEENS WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO
APPROACH 80F FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND 70S ELSEWHERE.

AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD...SURFACE DEWPOINTS TOO WILL CLIMB TO
AROUND 60F OR GREATER FOR THE REGION. AS THE UPSTREAM WAVE
APPROACHES WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
WILL INCREASE. PER COORDINATION FROM SPC...THE ENTIRE REGION IS
NOW WITHIN A "SEE TEXT" WITH 5% PROBABILITIES. 4KM SPC WRF
REFLECTIVITY ALONG WITH THE HRRR AND LOCAL HIRESWRF SHOW A SCT-BKN
LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS EASTERN NY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SBCAPES CLIMB INTO THE MID 100S J/KG
WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEARS CLIMBING TOWARD 50KTS. SO A LOW CAPE AND
HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WHERE ANY DEEPER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS /WITH OR WITHOUT
THUNDER/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS OUR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND COUNTIES
THIS EVENING WITH THE CONTINUE THREAT FOR SCT-BKN LINE OF
CONVECTION. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FROPA...THE COLDER UPPER POOL WITH
THE TROUGH AND THE THAT LAST WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP THE CLOUDS AND THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS
WHICH THE BETTER PROBABILITIES WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
FURTHERMORE...LAKE ENHANCEMENT FROM LAKE ONTARIO WILL ALSO ASSIST
WITH DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS DELTA T/S CLIMB ABOVE 13C.

MONDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A RATHER BRISK AND COOL DAY WITH CLOUDS
AND THE CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS. THE HEART OF THE COLD POOL /AOA
0C H850/ WILL BE OVERHEAD COINCIDING WITH A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO PROVIDE GUSTS OVER 20KTS. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE ALMOST
15 DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY/S WITH MAINLY 50S ACROSS THE
TERRAIN AND MID-UPPER 60S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS MAY LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOCATIONS DOWNWIND OF THE CATSKILLS LIKELY
EXPERIENCING CLEARING SKIES INCLUDING EASTERN WINDHAM COUNTY OF
SOUTHERN VT. WITH THE LOSS THE SUNLIGHT...SHOWERS TOO SHOULD
DIMINISH WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING BACK TO THE MID-UPR 30S FOR
THE DACKS AND 40S ELSEWHERE /A REMINDER THAT THE GROWING SEASON
HAS ENDED ACROSS NORTHERN HERKIMER...HAMILTON...NORTHERN WARREN
COUNTIES/.

TUESDAY...MODEL TRENDS ARE FAVORING ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MIGRATING ACROSS THE REGION. FRONTOLYSIS WILL BE UNDERWAY AS THE
THERMAL COLUMN WILL BE WARMING THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING AS HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT. SO THERE WILL BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AS HIGH TEMPS ACHIEVE 65-70F FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS AND LOW-MID 60S FOR THE TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGING AT 500 HPA WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE ENTIRE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK. THE 00Z GEFS
SHOWS 500 HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OF 1-2 STD ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE IN
THE WEEK...WITH ANOMALIES OF 2-3 STD ABOVE NORMAL SITUATED JUST TO
OUR NORTHWEST...WHERE THE CORE OF WHERE THE WARMEST HEIGHTS WILL BE
SITUATED.

AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE STRONG SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTROL THE WEATHER THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK AS WELL. THE HIGH WILL
SLOWLY MOVE FROM OVER UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY TO OFF
THE COAST FOR THURS THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE ALLOW WILL
ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPS WILL
GRADUALLY WARM UP THROUGHOUT THE WEEK...WITH VALLEY HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 ON WED...LOW 70S ON THURS...AND MID 70S FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR EACH NIGHT...AND LOWS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S /SOME UPPER 30S OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN/.
MOST AREAS THAT STILL HAVE THE GROWING SEASON ONGOING LOOK TO AVOID
A FROST/FREEZE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WITH A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE...LOW STRATUS CLOUDS HAVE
ALLOWED FOR MVFR CIGS AT THE VALLEY TAF SITES...AND IFR CIGS AT
KPSF. THE STRATUS HAD GENERALLY REMAINED SOUTH/EAST OF KALB/KGFL
THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT IT HAS STARTED TO CREEP NORTH AND WEST OVER
THE PAST HOUR OR SO...ALLOWING FOR MVFR CIGS TO MOVE INTO THESE
SITES AS WELL.  THE PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES EARLIER DID ALLOW FOR SOME
RADIATIONAL FOG TO DEVELOP AT KGFL...BUT IT APPEARS THAT THIS HAS
BROKEN UP THANKS TO A LIGHT BREEZE AND APPROACHING LOW STRATUS. WE
CANNOT RULE OUT THE STRATUS TO CONTINUE TO EXPAND FURTHER NORTH/WEST
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SO WE WILL KEEP MVFR CIGS THROUGH AT LEAST
MID MORNING.

BY THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS...THE LOW STRATUS SHOULD START TO
ERODE AND CIGS WILL LIKELY RETURN BACK TO VFR AS DAYTIME MIXING
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ALLOWS FOR SOME CLEARING. WHILE CLEARING WILL
TAKE PLACE FIRST FOR THE VALLEY TERMINALS...IT MAY TAKE UNTIL AROUND
NOON FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN AT KPSF.

THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE IN THE DAY WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME RAIN SHOWERS...ESP FOR KGFL...AND A RETURN TO BKN-OVC LOWER
CIGS. FLYING CONDITIONS MAY DROP TO MVFR WITHIN THE PASSING RAIN
SHOWERS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC FOR THUNDER AS WELL...BUT THE
PROBABILITY OF THIS OCCURRING IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT
THIS TIME.

BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT OF THE VALLEY TERMINALS
DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS...BUT LINGERING LOW CLOUDS UPSLOPING
THE TERRAIN MAY ALLOW FOR LOWER CIGS/VSBYS AT KPSF FOR OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. SOME MIST MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE NIGHT...ESP AT
KGFL/KPSF...ALTHOUGH THE EXTENT OF THIS WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON
HOW MUCH RAINFALL OCCURS AND HOW QUICKLY IT CLEAR OUT BEHIND THE
FRONT. FOR NOW...WILL ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS/CIGS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE HIGH ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE
INCREASE PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS...SO EXPECT RH VALUES TO REMAIN
ABOVE 50 PERCENT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WE DRY OUT TUESDAY AS WE
BEGIN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER.

SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 20 MPH TODAY.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST TONIGHT THEN INCREASE IN GUST
MAGNITUDES ON MONDAY WELL OVER 20 MPH AT TIMES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH AND CROSS THE REGION TODAY
BRINGING SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL TO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO GENERALLY BE A TENTH TO A
THIRD OF AN INCH WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ACROSS
ADIRONDACKS.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM







000
FXUS61 KALY 211045
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
645 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A MILD DAY IS EXPECTED FOR THIS LAST OFFICIAL WEEKEND OF
SUMMER.  HOWEVER...THIS WILL NOT LAST TOO LONG AS A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM TO THE REGION TODAY. COOLER
AND BRISK CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL RETURN
FOR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...MOST OF NEXT WEEK
LOOKS DRY...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...THEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM EDT...MOST OF THE SHOWERS ACROSS THE NYC/LI REGION HAS
REMAINED JUST EAST OF NW CT.  WE HAVE THEREFORE LOWERED POPS FROM
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  OTHERWISE...STRATUS DECK WAS SLOWLY
EXPANDING ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...TACONICS...WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND AND INTO THE DACKS.  SHOWERS WERE DEVELOPING OVER THE TUG
HILL AS WE WILL KEEP POPS INTO THE DACKS THROUGH THIS EARLY
MORNING.  OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME.

AS OF 330 AM EDT...H2O VAPOR LOOP THIS MORNING DEPICTS A COUPLE OF
NOTABLE WAVES THAT WILL HAVE AN IMPACT TO OUR REGION TODAY. THE
FIRST WAVE WAS DEVELOPING JUST EAST OF THE SOUTHEAST COASTLINE.
THE SECOND WAVE AS QUICKLY APPROACHING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION AND THE LAST WAVE WAS FURTHER UPSTREAM APPROACHING LAKE
WINNIPEG. THE MAIN CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE THE COVERAGE OF PRECIP
ACROSS THE REGION. SHOWERS WERE PROGRESSING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS IS AN EXTENSION OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ENTRAINMENT FROM THE ATLANTIC AND THE AFOREMENTIONED
COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT. PER THE LATEST HRRR/HIRESWRF REFLECTIVITY
FORECASTS...EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO PRIMARILY IMPACT LOCATIONS
WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION /MID HUDSON VALLEY...NW
CT AND SOUTHERN BERKS/ THROUGH THIS EARLY MORNING.
MEANWHILE...UPSTREAM WAVE CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST-NORTHEAST. HERE
MORE SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP WITHIN THE HIGHER THETA-E AIR AS WE
WILL INCREASE POPS FOR THE DACKS THROUGH THIS EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.

THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS...THE COASTAL WAVE CONTINUES TO
EXHIBIT SLOW INTENSIFICATION. FURTHERMORE...UPSTREAM WAVE
APPROACHES THE CENTRAL-EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. AN AREA OF
SUBSIDENCE SHOULD EVOLVE ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND INTO
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AS THE COASTAL WAVE TRACKS WELL OFFSHORE. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW TIME FOR OUR REGION TO FULLY FEEL THIS WARM SECTOR
WITH BREAKS OF SUNSHINE. H850 TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB WELL
INTO THE MID TEENS WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO
APPROACH 80F FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND 70S ELSEWHERE.

AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD...SURFACE DEWPOINTS TOO WILL CLIMB TO
AROUND 60F OR GREATER FOR THE REGION. AS THE UPSTREAM WAVE
APPROACHES WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
WILL INCREASE. PER COORDINATION FROM SPC...THE ENTIRE REGION IS
NOW WITHIN A "SEE TEXT" WITH 5% PROBABILITIES. 4KM SPC WRF
REFLECTIVITY ALONG WITH THE HRRR AND LOCAL HIRESWRF SHOW A SCT-BKN
LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS EASTERN NY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SBCAPES CLIMB INTO THE MID 100S J/KG
WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEARS CLIMBING TOWARD 50KTS. SO A LOW CAPE AND
HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WHERE ANY DEEPER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS /WITH OR WITHOUT
THUNDER/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS OUR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND COUNTIES
THIS EVENING WITH THE CONTINUE THREAT FOR SCT-BKN LINE OF
CONVECTION. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FROPA...THE COLDER UPPER POOL WITH
THE TROUGH AND THE THAT LAST WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP THE CLOUDS AND THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS
WHICH THE BETTER PROBABILITIES WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
FURTHERMORE...LAKE ENHANCEMENT FROM LAKE ONTARIO WILL ALSO ASSIST
WITH DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS DELTA T/S CLIMB ABOVE 13C.

MONDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A RATHER BRISK AND COOL DAY WITH CLOUDS
AND THE CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS. THE HEART OF THE COLD POOL /AOA
0C H850/ WILL BE OVERHEAD COINCIDING WITH A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO PROVIDE GUSTS OVER 20KTS. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE ALMOST
15 DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY/S WITH MAINLY 50S ACROSS THE
TERRAIN AND MID-UPPER 60S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS MAY LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOCATIONS DOWNWIND OF THE CATSKILLS LIKELY
EXPERIENCING CLEARING SKIES INCLUDING EASTERN WINDHAM COUNTY OF
SOUTHERN VT. WITH THE LOSS THE SUNLIGHT...SHOWERS TOO SHOULD
DIMINISH WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING BACK TO THE MID-UPR 30S FOR
THE DACKS AND 40S ELSEWHERE /A REMINDER THAT THE GROWING SEASON
HAS ENDED ACROSS NORTHERN HERKIMER...HAMILTON...NORTHERN WARREN
COUNTIES/.

TUESDAY...MODEL TRENDS ARE FAVORING ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MIGRATING ACROSS THE REGION. FRONTOLYSIS WILL BE UNDERWAY AS THE
THERMAL COLUMN WILL BE WARMING THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING AS HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT. SO THERE WILL BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AS HIGH TEMPS ACHIEVE 65-70F FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS AND LOW-MID 60S FOR THE TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGING AT 500 HPA WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE ENTIRE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK. THE 00Z GEFS
SHOWS 500 HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OF 1-2 STD ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE IN
THE WEEK...WITH ANOMALIES OF 2-3 STD ABOVE NORMAL SITUATED JUST TO
OUR NORTHWEST...WHERE THE CORE OF WHERE THE WARMEST HEIGHTS WILL BE
SITUATED.

AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE STRONG SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTROL THE WEATHER THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK AS WELL. THE HIGH WILL
SLOWLY MOVE FROM OVER UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY TO OFF
THE COAST FOR THURS THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE ALLOW WILL
ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPS WILL
GRADUALLY WARM UP THROUGHOUT THE WEEK...WITH VALLEY HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 ON WED...LOW 70S ON THURS...AND MID 70S FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR EACH NIGHT...AND LOWS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S /SOME UPPER 30S OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN/.
MOST AREAS THAT STILL HAVE THE GROWING SEASON ONGOING LOOK TO AVOID
A FROST/FREEZE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WITH A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE...LOW STRATUS CLOUDS HAVE
ALLOWED FOR MVFR CIGS AT THE VALLEY TAF SITES...AND IFR CIGS AT
KPSF. THE STRATUS HAD GENERALLY REMAINED SOUTH/EAST OF KALB/KGFL
THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT IT HAS STARTED TO CREEP NORTH AND WEST OVER
THE PAST HOUR OR SO...ALLOWING FOR MVFR CIGS TO MOVE INTO THESE
SITES AS WELL.  THE PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES EARLIER DID ALLOW FOR SOME
RADIATIONAL FOG TO DEVELOP AT KGFL...BUT IT APPEARS THAT THIS HAS
BROKEN UP THANKS TO A LIGHT BREEZE AND APPROACHING LOW STRATUS. WE
CANNOT RULE OUT THE STRATUS TO CONTINUE TO EXPAND FURTHER NORTH/WEST
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SO WE WILL KEEP MVFR CIGS THROUGH AT LEAST
MID MORNING.

BY THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS...THE LOW STRATUS SHOULD START TO
ERODE AND CIGS WILL LIKELY RETURN BACK TO VFR AS DAYTIME MIXING
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ALLOWS FOR SOME CLEARING. WHILE CLEARING WILL
TAKE PLACE FIRST FOR THE VALLEY TERMINALS...IT MAY TAKE UNTIL AROUND
NOON FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN AT KPSF.

THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE IN THE DAY WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME RAIN SHOWERS...ESP FOR KGFL...AND A RETURN TO BKN-OVC LOWER
CIGS. FLYING CONDITIONS MAY DROP TO MVFR WITHIN THE PASSING RAIN
SHOWERS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC FOR THUNDER AS WELL...BUT THE
PROBABILITY OF THIS OCCURRING IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT
THIS TIME.

BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT OF THE VALLEY TERMINALS
DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS...BUT LINGERING LOW CLOUDS UPSLOPING
THE TERRAIN MAY ALLOW FOR LOWER CIGS/VSBYS AT KPSF FOR OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. SOME MIST MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE NIGHT...ESP AT
KGFL/KPSF...ALTHOUGH THE EXTENT OF THIS WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON
HOW MUCH RAINFALL OCCURS AND HOW QUICKLY IT CLEAR OUT BEHIND THE
FRONT. FOR NOW...WILL ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS/CIGS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE HIGH ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE
INCREASE PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS...SO EXPECT RH VALUES TO REMAIN
ABOVE 50 PERCENT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WE DRY OUT TUESDAY AS WE
BEGIN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER.

SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 20 MPH TODAY.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST TONIGHT THEN INCREASE IN GUST
MAGNITUDES ON MONDAY WELL OVER 20 MPH AT TIMES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH AND CROSS THE REGION TODAY
BRINGING SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL TO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO GENERALLY BE A TENTH TO A
THIRD OF AN INCH WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ACROSS
ADIRONDACKS.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM







000
FXUS61 KALY 211045
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
645 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A MILD DAY IS EXPECTED FOR THIS LAST OFFICIAL WEEKEND OF
SUMMER.  HOWEVER...THIS WILL NOT LAST TOO LONG AS A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM TO THE REGION TODAY. COOLER
AND BRISK CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL RETURN
FOR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...MOST OF NEXT WEEK
LOOKS DRY...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...THEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM EDT...MOST OF THE SHOWERS ACROSS THE NYC/LI REGION HAS
REMAINED JUST EAST OF NW CT.  WE HAVE THEREFORE LOWERED POPS FROM
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  OTHERWISE...STRATUS DECK WAS SLOWLY
EXPANDING ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...TACONICS...WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND AND INTO THE DACKS.  SHOWERS WERE DEVELOPING OVER THE TUG
HILL AS WE WILL KEEP POPS INTO THE DACKS THROUGH THIS EARLY
MORNING.  OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME.

AS OF 330 AM EDT...H2O VAPOR LOOP THIS MORNING DEPICTS A COUPLE OF
NOTABLE WAVES THAT WILL HAVE AN IMPACT TO OUR REGION TODAY. THE
FIRST WAVE WAS DEVELOPING JUST EAST OF THE SOUTHEAST COASTLINE.
THE SECOND WAVE AS QUICKLY APPROACHING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION AND THE LAST WAVE WAS FURTHER UPSTREAM APPROACHING LAKE
WINNIPEG. THE MAIN CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE THE COVERAGE OF PRECIP
ACROSS THE REGION. SHOWERS WERE PROGRESSING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS IS AN EXTENSION OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ENTRAINMENT FROM THE ATLANTIC AND THE AFOREMENTIONED
COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT. PER THE LATEST HRRR/HIRESWRF REFLECTIVITY
FORECASTS...EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO PRIMARILY IMPACT LOCATIONS
WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION /MID HUDSON VALLEY...NW
CT AND SOUTHERN BERKS/ THROUGH THIS EARLY MORNING.
MEANWHILE...UPSTREAM WAVE CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST-NORTHEAST. HERE
MORE SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP WITHIN THE HIGHER THETA-E AIR AS WE
WILL INCREASE POPS FOR THE DACKS THROUGH THIS EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.

THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS...THE COASTAL WAVE CONTINUES TO
EXHIBIT SLOW INTENSIFICATION. FURTHERMORE...UPSTREAM WAVE
APPROACHES THE CENTRAL-EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. AN AREA OF
SUBSIDENCE SHOULD EVOLVE ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND INTO
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AS THE COASTAL WAVE TRACKS WELL OFFSHORE. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW TIME FOR OUR REGION TO FULLY FEEL THIS WARM SECTOR
WITH BREAKS OF SUNSHINE. H850 TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB WELL
INTO THE MID TEENS WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO
APPROACH 80F FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND 70S ELSEWHERE.

AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD...SURFACE DEWPOINTS TOO WILL CLIMB TO
AROUND 60F OR GREATER FOR THE REGION. AS THE UPSTREAM WAVE
APPROACHES WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
WILL INCREASE. PER COORDINATION FROM SPC...THE ENTIRE REGION IS
NOW WITHIN A "SEE TEXT" WITH 5% PROBABILITIES. 4KM SPC WRF
REFLECTIVITY ALONG WITH THE HRRR AND LOCAL HIRESWRF SHOW A SCT-BKN
LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS EASTERN NY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SBCAPES CLIMB INTO THE MID 100S J/KG
WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEARS CLIMBING TOWARD 50KTS. SO A LOW CAPE AND
HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WHERE ANY DEEPER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS /WITH OR WITHOUT
THUNDER/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS OUR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND COUNTIES
THIS EVENING WITH THE CONTINUE THREAT FOR SCT-BKN LINE OF
CONVECTION. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FROPA...THE COLDER UPPER POOL WITH
THE TROUGH AND THE THAT LAST WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP THE CLOUDS AND THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS
WHICH THE BETTER PROBABILITIES WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
FURTHERMORE...LAKE ENHANCEMENT FROM LAKE ONTARIO WILL ALSO ASSIST
WITH DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS DELTA T/S CLIMB ABOVE 13C.

MONDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A RATHER BRISK AND COOL DAY WITH CLOUDS
AND THE CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS. THE HEART OF THE COLD POOL /AOA
0C H850/ WILL BE OVERHEAD COINCIDING WITH A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO PROVIDE GUSTS OVER 20KTS. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE ALMOST
15 DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY/S WITH MAINLY 50S ACROSS THE
TERRAIN AND MID-UPPER 60S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS MAY LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOCATIONS DOWNWIND OF THE CATSKILLS LIKELY
EXPERIENCING CLEARING SKIES INCLUDING EASTERN WINDHAM COUNTY OF
SOUTHERN VT. WITH THE LOSS THE SUNLIGHT...SHOWERS TOO SHOULD
DIMINISH WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING BACK TO THE MID-UPR 30S FOR
THE DACKS AND 40S ELSEWHERE /A REMINDER THAT THE GROWING SEASON
HAS ENDED ACROSS NORTHERN HERKIMER...HAMILTON...NORTHERN WARREN
COUNTIES/.

TUESDAY...MODEL TRENDS ARE FAVORING ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MIGRATING ACROSS THE REGION. FRONTOLYSIS WILL BE UNDERWAY AS THE
THERMAL COLUMN WILL BE WARMING THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING AS HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT. SO THERE WILL BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AS HIGH TEMPS ACHIEVE 65-70F FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS AND LOW-MID 60S FOR THE TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGING AT 500 HPA WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE ENTIRE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK. THE 00Z GEFS
SHOWS 500 HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OF 1-2 STD ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE IN
THE WEEK...WITH ANOMALIES OF 2-3 STD ABOVE NORMAL SITUATED JUST TO
OUR NORTHWEST...WHERE THE CORE OF WHERE THE WARMEST HEIGHTS WILL BE
SITUATED.

AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE STRONG SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTROL THE WEATHER THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK AS WELL. THE HIGH WILL
SLOWLY MOVE FROM OVER UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY TO OFF
THE COAST FOR THURS THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE ALLOW WILL
ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPS WILL
GRADUALLY WARM UP THROUGHOUT THE WEEK...WITH VALLEY HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 ON WED...LOW 70S ON THURS...AND MID 70S FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR EACH NIGHT...AND LOWS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S /SOME UPPER 30S OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN/.
MOST AREAS THAT STILL HAVE THE GROWING SEASON ONGOING LOOK TO AVOID
A FROST/FREEZE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WITH A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE...LOW STRATUS CLOUDS HAVE
ALLOWED FOR MVFR CIGS AT THE VALLEY TAF SITES...AND IFR CIGS AT
KPSF. THE STRATUS HAD GENERALLY REMAINED SOUTH/EAST OF KALB/KGFL
THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT IT HAS STARTED TO CREEP NORTH AND WEST OVER
THE PAST HOUR OR SO...ALLOWING FOR MVFR CIGS TO MOVE INTO THESE
SITES AS WELL.  THE PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES EARLIER DID ALLOW FOR SOME
RADIATIONAL FOG TO DEVELOP AT KGFL...BUT IT APPEARS THAT THIS HAS
BROKEN UP THANKS TO A LIGHT BREEZE AND APPROACHING LOW STRATUS. WE
CANNOT RULE OUT THE STRATUS TO CONTINUE TO EXPAND FURTHER NORTH/WEST
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SO WE WILL KEEP MVFR CIGS THROUGH AT LEAST
MID MORNING.

BY THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS...THE LOW STRATUS SHOULD START TO
ERODE AND CIGS WILL LIKELY RETURN BACK TO VFR AS DAYTIME MIXING
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ALLOWS FOR SOME CLEARING. WHILE CLEARING WILL
TAKE PLACE FIRST FOR THE VALLEY TERMINALS...IT MAY TAKE UNTIL AROUND
NOON FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN AT KPSF.

THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE IN THE DAY WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME RAIN SHOWERS...ESP FOR KGFL...AND A RETURN TO BKN-OVC LOWER
CIGS. FLYING CONDITIONS MAY DROP TO MVFR WITHIN THE PASSING RAIN
SHOWERS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC FOR THUNDER AS WELL...BUT THE
PROBABILITY OF THIS OCCURRING IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT
THIS TIME.

BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT OF THE VALLEY TERMINALS
DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS...BUT LINGERING LOW CLOUDS UPSLOPING
THE TERRAIN MAY ALLOW FOR LOWER CIGS/VSBYS AT KPSF FOR OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. SOME MIST MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE NIGHT...ESP AT
KGFL/KPSF...ALTHOUGH THE EXTENT OF THIS WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON
HOW MUCH RAINFALL OCCURS AND HOW QUICKLY IT CLEAR OUT BEHIND THE
FRONT. FOR NOW...WILL ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS/CIGS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE HIGH ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE
INCREASE PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS...SO EXPECT RH VALUES TO REMAIN
ABOVE 50 PERCENT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WE DRY OUT TUESDAY AS WE
BEGIN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER.

SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 20 MPH TODAY.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST TONIGHT THEN INCREASE IN GUST
MAGNITUDES ON MONDAY WELL OVER 20 MPH AT TIMES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH AND CROSS THE REGION TODAY
BRINGING SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL TO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO GENERALLY BE A TENTH TO A
THIRD OF AN INCH WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ACROSS
ADIRONDACKS.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM







000
FXUS61 KALY 211044
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
644 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A MILD DAY IS EXPECTED FOR THIS LAST OFFICIAL WEEKEND OF
SUMMER.  HOWEVER...THIS WILL NOT LAST TOO LONG AS A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM TO THE REGION TODAY. COOLER
AND BRISK CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL RETURN
FOR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...MOST OF NEXT WEEK
LOOKS DRY...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...THEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM EDT...MOST OF THE SHOWERS ACROSS THE NYC/LI REGION HAS
REMAINED JUST EAST OF NW CT.  WE HAVE THEREFORE LOWERED POPS FROM
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  OTHERWISE...STRATUS DECK WAS SLOWLY
EXPANDING ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...TACONICS...WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND AND INTO THE DACKS.  SHOWERS WERE DEVELOPING OVER THE TUG
HILL AS WE WILL KEEP POPS INTO THE DACKS THROUGH THIS EARLY
MORNING.  OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME.

AS OF 330 AM EDT...H2O VAPOR LOOP THIS MORNING DEPICTS A COUPLE OF
NOTABLE WAVES THAT WILL HAVE AN IMPACT TO OUR REGION TODAY. THE
FIRST WAVE WAS DEVELOPING JUST EAST OF THE SOUTHEAST COASTLINE.
THE SECOND WAVE AS QUICKLY APPROACHING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION AND THE LAST WAVE WAS FURTHER UPSTREAM APPROACHING LAKE
WINNIPEG. THE MAIN CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE THE COVERAGE OF PRECIP
ACROSS THE REGION. SHOWERS WERE PROGRESSING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS IS AN EXTENSION OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ENTRAINMENT FROM THE ATLANTIC AND THE AFOREMENTIONED
COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT. PER THE LATEST HRRR/HIRESWRF REFLECTIVITY
FORECASTS...EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO PRIMARILY IMPACT LOCATIONS
WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION /MID HUDSON VALLEY...NW
CT AND SOUTHERN BERKS/ THROUGH THIS EARLY MORNING.
MEANWHILE...UPSTREAM WAVE CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST-NORTHEAST. HERE
MORE SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP WITHIN THE HIGHER THETA-E AIR AS WE
WILL INCREASE POPS FOR THE DACKS THROUGH THIS EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.

THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS...THE COASTAL WAVE CONTINUES TO
EXHIBIT SLOW INTENSIFICATION. FURTHERMORE...UPSTREAM WAVE
APPROACHES THE CENTRAL-EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. AN AREA OF
SUBSIDENCE SHOULD EVOLVE ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND INTO
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AS THE COASTAL WAVE TRACKS WELL OFFSHORE. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW TIME FOR OUR REGION TO FULLY FEEL THIS WARM SECTOR
WITH BREAKS OF SUNSHINE. H850 TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB WELL
INTO THE MID TEENS WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO
APPROACH 80F FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND 70S ELSEWHERE.

AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD...SURFACE DEWPOINTS TOO WILL CLIMB TO
AROUND 60F OR GREATER FOR THE REGION. AS THE UPSTREAM WAVE
APPROACHES WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
WILL INCREASE. PER COORDINATION FROM SPC...THE ENTIRE REGION IS
NOW WITHIN A "SEE TEXT" WITH 5% PROBABILITIES. 4KM SPC WRF
REFLECTIVITY ALONG WITH THE HRRR AND LOCAL HIRESWRF SHOW A SCT-BKN
LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS EASTERN NY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SBCAPES CLIMB INTO THE MID 100S J/KG
WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEARS CLIMBING TOWARD 50KTS. SO A LOW CAPE AND
HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WHERE ANY DEEPER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS /WITH OR WITHOUT
THUNDER/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS OUR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND COUNTIES
THIS EVENING WITH THE CONTINUE THREAT FOR SCT-BKN LINE OF
CONVECTION. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FROPA...THE COLDER UPPER POOL WITH
THE TROUGH AND THE THAT LAST WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP THE CLOUDS AND THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS
WHICH THE BETTER PROBABILITIES WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
FURTHERMORE...LAKE ENHANCEMENT FROM LAKE ONTARIO WILL ALSO ASSIST
WITH DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS DELTA T/S CLIMB ABOVE 13C.

MONDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A RATHER BRISK AND COOL DAY WITH CLOUDS
AND THE CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS. THE HEART OF THE COLD POOL /AOA
0C H850/ WILL BE OVERHEAD COINCIDING WITH A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO PROVIDE GUSTS OVER 20KTS. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE ALMOST
15 DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY/S WITH MAINLY 50S ACROSS THE
TERRAIN AND MID-UPPER 60S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS MAY LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOCATIONS DOWNWIND OF THE CATSKILLS LIKELY
EXPERIENCING CLEARING SKIES INCLUDING EASTERN WINDHAM COUNTY OF
SOUTHERN VT. WITH THE LOSS THE SUNLIGHT...SHOWERS TOO SHOULD
DIMINISH WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING BACK TO THE MID-UPR 30S FOR
THE DACKS AND 40S ELSEWHERE /A REMINDER THAT THE GROWING SEASON
HAS ENDED ACROSS NORTHERN HERKIMER...HAMILTON...NORTHERN WARREN
COUNTIES/.

TUESDAY...MODEL TRENDS ARE FAVORING ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MIGRATING ACROSS THE REGION. FRONTOLYSIS WILL BE UNDERWAY AS THE
THERMAL COLUMN WILL BE WARMING THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING AS HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT. SO THERE WILL BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AS HIGH TEMPS ACHIEVE 65-70F FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS AND LOW-MID 60S FOR THE TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGING AT 500 HPA WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE ENTIRE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK. THE 00Z GEFS
SHOWS 500 HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OF 1-2 STD ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE IN
THE WEEK...WITH ANOMALIES OF 2-3 STD ABOVE NORMAL SITUATED JUST TO
OUR NORTHWEST...WHERE THE CORE OF WHERE THE WARMEST HEIGHTS WILL BE
SITUATED.

AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE STRONG SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTROL THE WEATHER THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK AS WELL. THE HIGH WILL
SLOWLY MOVE FROM OVER UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY TO OFF
THE COAST FOR THURS THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE ALLOW WILL
ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPS WILL
GRADUALLY WARM UP THROUGHOUT THE WEEK...WITH VALLEY HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 ON WED...LOW 70S ON THURS...AND MID 70S FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR EACH NIGHT...AND LOWS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S /SOME UPPER 30S OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN/.
MOST AREAS THAT STILL HAVE THE GROWING SEASON ONGOING LOOK TO AVOID
A FROST/FREEZE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WITH A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE...LOW STRATUS CLOUDS HAVE
ALLOWED FOR MVFR CIGS AT KPOU...AND IFR CIGS AT KPSF. THE STRATUS
HAS GENERALLY REMAINED SOUTH OF KALB/KGFL...KEEPING THE LOW CIGS
AWAY FROM THOSE SITES AND ALLOWED FLYING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN VFR AT
KALB. HOWEVER...THE CLEARING SKIES ALLOWED FOR SOME RADIATIONAL FOG
TO DEVELOP AT KGFL. WE CANNOT RULE OUT THE STRATUS TO EXPAND FURTHER
NORTH/WEST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SO WE WILL ALLOW A TEMPO FOR
MVFR CIGS AT KALB...AND IFR CIGS AT KPOU AS WELL...IN CASE THIS
OCCURS.

BY SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...RADIATIONAL FOG SHOULD LIFT AT
KGFL...ALLOWING FOR A GRADUAL RETURN TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY VFR
CONDITIONS THERE AS WELL.  BY THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS...THE
LOW STRATUS SHOULD START TO ERODE AND CIGS WILL LIKELY RETURN BACK
TO VFR AS DAYTIME MIXING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ALLOWS FOR SOME
CLEARING. WHILE CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE FIRST FOR THE VALLEY
TERMINALS...IT MAY TAKE UNTIL AROUND NOON FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO
RETURN AT KPSF.

THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE IN THE DAY WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME RAIN SHOWERS...ESP FOR KGFL...AND A RETURN TO BKN-OVC LOWER
CIGS. FLYING CONDITIONS MAY DROP TO MVFR WITHIN THE PASSING RAIN
SHOWERS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC FOR THUNDER AS WELL...BUT THE
PROBABILITY OF THIS OCCURRING IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT
THIS TIME.

BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT OF THE VALLEY TERMINALS
DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS...BUT LINGERING LOW CLOUDS UPSLOPING
THE TERRAIN MAY ALLOW FOR LOWER CIGS/VSBYS AT KPSF FOR OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. SOME MIST MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE NIGHT...ESP AT
KGFL/KPSF...ALTHOUGH THE EXTENT OF THIS WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON
HOW MUCH RAINFALL OCCURS AND HOW QUICKLY IT CLEAR OUT BEHIND THE
FRONT. FOR NOW...WILL ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS/CIGS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE HIGH ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE
INCREASE PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS...SO EXPECT RH VALUES TO REMAIN
ABOVE 50 PERCENT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WE DRY OUT TUESDAY AS WE
BEGIN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER.

SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 20 MPH TODAY.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST TONIGHT THEN INCREASE IN GUST
MAGNITUDES ON MONDAY WELL OVER 20 MPH AT TIMES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH AND CROSS THE REGION TODAY
BRINGING SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL TO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO GENERALLY BE A TENTH TO A
THIRD OF AN INCH WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ACROSS
ADIRONDACKS.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM








000
FXUS61 KALY 211044
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
644 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A MILD DAY IS EXPECTED FOR THIS LAST OFFICIAL WEEKEND OF
SUMMER.  HOWEVER...THIS WILL NOT LAST TOO LONG AS A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM TO THE REGION TODAY. COOLER
AND BRISK CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL RETURN
FOR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...MOST OF NEXT WEEK
LOOKS DRY...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...THEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM EDT...MOST OF THE SHOWERS ACROSS THE NYC/LI REGION HAS
REMAINED JUST EAST OF NW CT.  WE HAVE THEREFORE LOWERED POPS FROM
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  OTHERWISE...STRATUS DECK WAS SLOWLY
EXPANDING ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...TACONICS...WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND AND INTO THE DACKS.  SHOWERS WERE DEVELOPING OVER THE TUG
HILL AS WE WILL KEEP POPS INTO THE DACKS THROUGH THIS EARLY
MORNING.  OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME.

AS OF 330 AM EDT...H2O VAPOR LOOP THIS MORNING DEPICTS A COUPLE OF
NOTABLE WAVES THAT WILL HAVE AN IMPACT TO OUR REGION TODAY. THE
FIRST WAVE WAS DEVELOPING JUST EAST OF THE SOUTHEAST COASTLINE.
THE SECOND WAVE AS QUICKLY APPROACHING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION AND THE LAST WAVE WAS FURTHER UPSTREAM APPROACHING LAKE
WINNIPEG. THE MAIN CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE THE COVERAGE OF PRECIP
ACROSS THE REGION. SHOWERS WERE PROGRESSING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS IS AN EXTENSION OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ENTRAINMENT FROM THE ATLANTIC AND THE AFOREMENTIONED
COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT. PER THE LATEST HRRR/HIRESWRF REFLECTIVITY
FORECASTS...EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO PRIMARILY IMPACT LOCATIONS
WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION /MID HUDSON VALLEY...NW
CT AND SOUTHERN BERKS/ THROUGH THIS EARLY MORNING.
MEANWHILE...UPSTREAM WAVE CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST-NORTHEAST. HERE
MORE SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP WITHIN THE HIGHER THETA-E AIR AS WE
WILL INCREASE POPS FOR THE DACKS THROUGH THIS EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.

THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS...THE COASTAL WAVE CONTINUES TO
EXHIBIT SLOW INTENSIFICATION. FURTHERMORE...UPSTREAM WAVE
APPROACHES THE CENTRAL-EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. AN AREA OF
SUBSIDENCE SHOULD EVOLVE ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND INTO
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AS THE COASTAL WAVE TRACKS WELL OFFSHORE. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW TIME FOR OUR REGION TO FULLY FEEL THIS WARM SECTOR
WITH BREAKS OF SUNSHINE. H850 TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB WELL
INTO THE MID TEENS WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO
APPROACH 80F FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND 70S ELSEWHERE.

AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD...SURFACE DEWPOINTS TOO WILL CLIMB TO
AROUND 60F OR GREATER FOR THE REGION. AS THE UPSTREAM WAVE
APPROACHES WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
WILL INCREASE. PER COORDINATION FROM SPC...THE ENTIRE REGION IS
NOW WITHIN A "SEE TEXT" WITH 5% PROBABILITIES. 4KM SPC WRF
REFLECTIVITY ALONG WITH THE HRRR AND LOCAL HIRESWRF SHOW A SCT-BKN
LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS EASTERN NY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SBCAPES CLIMB INTO THE MID 100S J/KG
WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEARS CLIMBING TOWARD 50KTS. SO A LOW CAPE AND
HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WHERE ANY DEEPER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS /WITH OR WITHOUT
THUNDER/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS OUR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND COUNTIES
THIS EVENING WITH THE CONTINUE THREAT FOR SCT-BKN LINE OF
CONVECTION. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FROPA...THE COLDER UPPER POOL WITH
THE TROUGH AND THE THAT LAST WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP THE CLOUDS AND THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS
WHICH THE BETTER PROBABILITIES WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
FURTHERMORE...LAKE ENHANCEMENT FROM LAKE ONTARIO WILL ALSO ASSIST
WITH DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS DELTA T/S CLIMB ABOVE 13C.

MONDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A RATHER BRISK AND COOL DAY WITH CLOUDS
AND THE CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS. THE HEART OF THE COLD POOL /AOA
0C H850/ WILL BE OVERHEAD COINCIDING WITH A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO PROVIDE GUSTS OVER 20KTS. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE ALMOST
15 DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY/S WITH MAINLY 50S ACROSS THE
TERRAIN AND MID-UPPER 60S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS MAY LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOCATIONS DOWNWIND OF THE CATSKILLS LIKELY
EXPERIENCING CLEARING SKIES INCLUDING EASTERN WINDHAM COUNTY OF
SOUTHERN VT. WITH THE LOSS THE SUNLIGHT...SHOWERS TOO SHOULD
DIMINISH WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING BACK TO THE MID-UPR 30S FOR
THE DACKS AND 40S ELSEWHERE /A REMINDER THAT THE GROWING SEASON
HAS ENDED ACROSS NORTHERN HERKIMER...HAMILTON...NORTHERN WARREN
COUNTIES/.

TUESDAY...MODEL TRENDS ARE FAVORING ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MIGRATING ACROSS THE REGION. FRONTOLYSIS WILL BE UNDERWAY AS THE
THERMAL COLUMN WILL BE WARMING THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING AS HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT. SO THERE WILL BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AS HIGH TEMPS ACHIEVE 65-70F FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS AND LOW-MID 60S FOR THE TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGING AT 500 HPA WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE ENTIRE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK. THE 00Z GEFS
SHOWS 500 HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OF 1-2 STD ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE IN
THE WEEK...WITH ANOMALIES OF 2-3 STD ABOVE NORMAL SITUATED JUST TO
OUR NORTHWEST...WHERE THE CORE OF WHERE THE WARMEST HEIGHTS WILL BE
SITUATED.

AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE STRONG SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTROL THE WEATHER THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK AS WELL. THE HIGH WILL
SLOWLY MOVE FROM OVER UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY TO OFF
THE COAST FOR THURS THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE ALLOW WILL
ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPS WILL
GRADUALLY WARM UP THROUGHOUT THE WEEK...WITH VALLEY HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 ON WED...LOW 70S ON THURS...AND MID 70S FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR EACH NIGHT...AND LOWS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S /SOME UPPER 30S OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN/.
MOST AREAS THAT STILL HAVE THE GROWING SEASON ONGOING LOOK TO AVOID
A FROST/FREEZE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WITH A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE...LOW STRATUS CLOUDS HAVE
ALLOWED FOR MVFR CIGS AT KPOU...AND IFR CIGS AT KPSF. THE STRATUS
HAS GENERALLY REMAINED SOUTH OF KALB/KGFL...KEEPING THE LOW CIGS
AWAY FROM THOSE SITES AND ALLOWED FLYING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN VFR AT
KALB. HOWEVER...THE CLEARING SKIES ALLOWED FOR SOME RADIATIONAL FOG
TO DEVELOP AT KGFL. WE CANNOT RULE OUT THE STRATUS TO EXPAND FURTHER
NORTH/WEST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SO WE WILL ALLOW A TEMPO FOR
MVFR CIGS AT KALB...AND IFR CIGS AT KPOU AS WELL...IN CASE THIS
OCCURS.

BY SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...RADIATIONAL FOG SHOULD LIFT AT
KGFL...ALLOWING FOR A GRADUAL RETURN TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY VFR
CONDITIONS THERE AS WELL.  BY THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS...THE
LOW STRATUS SHOULD START TO ERODE AND CIGS WILL LIKELY RETURN BACK
TO VFR AS DAYTIME MIXING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ALLOWS FOR SOME
CLEARING. WHILE CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE FIRST FOR THE VALLEY
TERMINALS...IT MAY TAKE UNTIL AROUND NOON FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO
RETURN AT KPSF.

THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE IN THE DAY WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME RAIN SHOWERS...ESP FOR KGFL...AND A RETURN TO BKN-OVC LOWER
CIGS. FLYING CONDITIONS MAY DROP TO MVFR WITHIN THE PASSING RAIN
SHOWERS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC FOR THUNDER AS WELL...BUT THE
PROBABILITY OF THIS OCCURRING IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT
THIS TIME.

BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT OF THE VALLEY TERMINALS
DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS...BUT LINGERING LOW CLOUDS UPSLOPING
THE TERRAIN MAY ALLOW FOR LOWER CIGS/VSBYS AT KPSF FOR OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. SOME MIST MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE NIGHT...ESP AT
KGFL/KPSF...ALTHOUGH THE EXTENT OF THIS WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON
HOW MUCH RAINFALL OCCURS AND HOW QUICKLY IT CLEAR OUT BEHIND THE
FRONT. FOR NOW...WILL ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS/CIGS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE HIGH ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE
INCREASE PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS...SO EXPECT RH VALUES TO REMAIN
ABOVE 50 PERCENT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WE DRY OUT TUESDAY AS WE
BEGIN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER.

SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 20 MPH TODAY.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST TONIGHT THEN INCREASE IN GUST
MAGNITUDES ON MONDAY WELL OVER 20 MPH AT TIMES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH AND CROSS THE REGION TODAY
BRINGING SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL TO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO GENERALLY BE A TENTH TO A
THIRD OF AN INCH WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ACROSS
ADIRONDACKS.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM








000
FXUS61 KALY 211044
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
644 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A MILD DAY IS EXPECTED FOR THIS LAST OFFICIAL WEEKEND OF
SUMMER.  HOWEVER...THIS WILL NOT LAST TOO LONG AS A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM TO THE REGION TODAY. COOLER
AND BRISK CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL RETURN
FOR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...MOST OF NEXT WEEK
LOOKS DRY...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...THEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM EDT...MOST OF THE SHOWERS ACROSS THE NYC/LI REGION HAS
REMAINED JUST EAST OF NW CT.  WE HAVE THEREFORE LOWERED POPS FROM
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  OTHERWISE...STRATUS DECK WAS SLOWLY
EXPANDING ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...TACONICS...WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND AND INTO THE DACKS.  SHOWERS WERE DEVELOPING OVER THE TUG
HILL AS WE WILL KEEP POPS INTO THE DACKS THROUGH THIS EARLY
MORNING.  OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME.

AS OF 330 AM EDT...H2O VAPOR LOOP THIS MORNING DEPICTS A COUPLE OF
NOTABLE WAVES THAT WILL HAVE AN IMPACT TO OUR REGION TODAY. THE
FIRST WAVE WAS DEVELOPING JUST EAST OF THE SOUTHEAST COASTLINE.
THE SECOND WAVE AS QUICKLY APPROACHING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION AND THE LAST WAVE WAS FURTHER UPSTREAM APPROACHING LAKE
WINNIPEG. THE MAIN CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE THE COVERAGE OF PRECIP
ACROSS THE REGION. SHOWERS WERE PROGRESSING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS IS AN EXTENSION OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ENTRAINMENT FROM THE ATLANTIC AND THE AFOREMENTIONED
COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT. PER THE LATEST HRRR/HIRESWRF REFLECTIVITY
FORECASTS...EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO PRIMARILY IMPACT LOCATIONS
WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION /MID HUDSON VALLEY...NW
CT AND SOUTHERN BERKS/ THROUGH THIS EARLY MORNING.
MEANWHILE...UPSTREAM WAVE CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST-NORTHEAST. HERE
MORE SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP WITHIN THE HIGHER THETA-E AIR AS WE
WILL INCREASE POPS FOR THE DACKS THROUGH THIS EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.

THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS...THE COASTAL WAVE CONTINUES TO
EXHIBIT SLOW INTENSIFICATION. FURTHERMORE...UPSTREAM WAVE
APPROACHES THE CENTRAL-EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. AN AREA OF
SUBSIDENCE SHOULD EVOLVE ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND INTO
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AS THE COASTAL WAVE TRACKS WELL OFFSHORE. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW TIME FOR OUR REGION TO FULLY FEEL THIS WARM SECTOR
WITH BREAKS OF SUNSHINE. H850 TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB WELL
INTO THE MID TEENS WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO
APPROACH 80F FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND 70S ELSEWHERE.

AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD...SURFACE DEWPOINTS TOO WILL CLIMB TO
AROUND 60F OR GREATER FOR THE REGION. AS THE UPSTREAM WAVE
APPROACHES WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
WILL INCREASE. PER COORDINATION FROM SPC...THE ENTIRE REGION IS
NOW WITHIN A "SEE TEXT" WITH 5% PROBABILITIES. 4KM SPC WRF
REFLECTIVITY ALONG WITH THE HRRR AND LOCAL HIRESWRF SHOW A SCT-BKN
LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS EASTERN NY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SBCAPES CLIMB INTO THE MID 100S J/KG
WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEARS CLIMBING TOWARD 50KTS. SO A LOW CAPE AND
HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WHERE ANY DEEPER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS /WITH OR WITHOUT
THUNDER/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS OUR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND COUNTIES
THIS EVENING WITH THE CONTINUE THREAT FOR SCT-BKN LINE OF
CONVECTION. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FROPA...THE COLDER UPPER POOL WITH
THE TROUGH AND THE THAT LAST WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP THE CLOUDS AND THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS
WHICH THE BETTER PROBABILITIES WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
FURTHERMORE...LAKE ENHANCEMENT FROM LAKE ONTARIO WILL ALSO ASSIST
WITH DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS DELTA T/S CLIMB ABOVE 13C.

MONDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A RATHER BRISK AND COOL DAY WITH CLOUDS
AND THE CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS. THE HEART OF THE COLD POOL /AOA
0C H850/ WILL BE OVERHEAD COINCIDING WITH A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO PROVIDE GUSTS OVER 20KTS. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE ALMOST
15 DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY/S WITH MAINLY 50S ACROSS THE
TERRAIN AND MID-UPPER 60S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS MAY LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOCATIONS DOWNWIND OF THE CATSKILLS LIKELY
EXPERIENCING CLEARING SKIES INCLUDING EASTERN WINDHAM COUNTY OF
SOUTHERN VT. WITH THE LOSS THE SUNLIGHT...SHOWERS TOO SHOULD
DIMINISH WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING BACK TO THE MID-UPR 30S FOR
THE DACKS AND 40S ELSEWHERE /A REMINDER THAT THE GROWING SEASON
HAS ENDED ACROSS NORTHERN HERKIMER...HAMILTON...NORTHERN WARREN
COUNTIES/.

TUESDAY...MODEL TRENDS ARE FAVORING ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MIGRATING ACROSS THE REGION. FRONTOLYSIS WILL BE UNDERWAY AS THE
THERMAL COLUMN WILL BE WARMING THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING AS HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT. SO THERE WILL BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AS HIGH TEMPS ACHIEVE 65-70F FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS AND LOW-MID 60S FOR THE TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGING AT 500 HPA WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE ENTIRE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK. THE 00Z GEFS
SHOWS 500 HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OF 1-2 STD ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE IN
THE WEEK...WITH ANOMALIES OF 2-3 STD ABOVE NORMAL SITUATED JUST TO
OUR NORTHWEST...WHERE THE CORE OF WHERE THE WARMEST HEIGHTS WILL BE
SITUATED.

AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE STRONG SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTROL THE WEATHER THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK AS WELL. THE HIGH WILL
SLOWLY MOVE FROM OVER UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY TO OFF
THE COAST FOR THURS THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE ALLOW WILL
ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPS WILL
GRADUALLY WARM UP THROUGHOUT THE WEEK...WITH VALLEY HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 ON WED...LOW 70S ON THURS...AND MID 70S FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR EACH NIGHT...AND LOWS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S /SOME UPPER 30S OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN/.
MOST AREAS THAT STILL HAVE THE GROWING SEASON ONGOING LOOK TO AVOID
A FROST/FREEZE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WITH A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE...LOW STRATUS CLOUDS HAVE
ALLOWED FOR MVFR CIGS AT KPOU...AND IFR CIGS AT KPSF. THE STRATUS
HAS GENERALLY REMAINED SOUTH OF KALB/KGFL...KEEPING THE LOW CIGS
AWAY FROM THOSE SITES AND ALLOWED FLYING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN VFR AT
KALB. HOWEVER...THE CLEARING SKIES ALLOWED FOR SOME RADIATIONAL FOG
TO DEVELOP AT KGFL. WE CANNOT RULE OUT THE STRATUS TO EXPAND FURTHER
NORTH/WEST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SO WE WILL ALLOW A TEMPO FOR
MVFR CIGS AT KALB...AND IFR CIGS AT KPOU AS WELL...IN CASE THIS
OCCURS.

BY SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...RADIATIONAL FOG SHOULD LIFT AT
KGFL...ALLOWING FOR A GRADUAL RETURN TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY VFR
CONDITIONS THERE AS WELL.  BY THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS...THE
LOW STRATUS SHOULD START TO ERODE AND CIGS WILL LIKELY RETURN BACK
TO VFR AS DAYTIME MIXING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ALLOWS FOR SOME
CLEARING. WHILE CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE FIRST FOR THE VALLEY
TERMINALS...IT MAY TAKE UNTIL AROUND NOON FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO
RETURN AT KPSF.

THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE IN THE DAY WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME RAIN SHOWERS...ESP FOR KGFL...AND A RETURN TO BKN-OVC LOWER
CIGS. FLYING CONDITIONS MAY DROP TO MVFR WITHIN THE PASSING RAIN
SHOWERS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC FOR THUNDER AS WELL...BUT THE
PROBABILITY OF THIS OCCURRING IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT
THIS TIME.

BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT OF THE VALLEY TERMINALS
DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS...BUT LINGERING LOW CLOUDS UPSLOPING
THE TERRAIN MAY ALLOW FOR LOWER CIGS/VSBYS AT KPSF FOR OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. SOME MIST MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE NIGHT...ESP AT
KGFL/KPSF...ALTHOUGH THE EXTENT OF THIS WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON
HOW MUCH RAINFALL OCCURS AND HOW QUICKLY IT CLEAR OUT BEHIND THE
FRONT. FOR NOW...WILL ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS/CIGS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE HIGH ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE
INCREASE PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS...SO EXPECT RH VALUES TO REMAIN
ABOVE 50 PERCENT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WE DRY OUT TUESDAY AS WE
BEGIN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER.

SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 20 MPH TODAY.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST TONIGHT THEN INCREASE IN GUST
MAGNITUDES ON MONDAY WELL OVER 20 MPH AT TIMES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH AND CROSS THE REGION TODAY
BRINGING SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL TO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO GENERALLY BE A TENTH TO A
THIRD OF AN INCH WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ACROSS
ADIRONDACKS.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM








000
FXUS61 KALY 211044
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
644 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A MILD DAY IS EXPECTED FOR THIS LAST OFFICIAL WEEKEND OF
SUMMER.  HOWEVER...THIS WILL NOT LAST TOO LONG AS A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM TO THE REGION TODAY. COOLER
AND BRISK CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL RETURN
FOR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...MOST OF NEXT WEEK
LOOKS DRY...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...THEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM EDT...MOST OF THE SHOWERS ACROSS THE NYC/LI REGION HAS
REMAINED JUST EAST OF NW CT.  WE HAVE THEREFORE LOWERED POPS FROM
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  OTHERWISE...STRATUS DECK WAS SLOWLY
EXPANDING ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...TACONICS...WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND AND INTO THE DACKS.  SHOWERS WERE DEVELOPING OVER THE TUG
HILL AS WE WILL KEEP POPS INTO THE DACKS THROUGH THIS EARLY
MORNING.  OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME.

AS OF 330 AM EDT...H2O VAPOR LOOP THIS MORNING DEPICTS A COUPLE OF
NOTABLE WAVES THAT WILL HAVE AN IMPACT TO OUR REGION TODAY. THE
FIRST WAVE WAS DEVELOPING JUST EAST OF THE SOUTHEAST COASTLINE.
THE SECOND WAVE AS QUICKLY APPROACHING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION AND THE LAST WAVE WAS FURTHER UPSTREAM APPROACHING LAKE
WINNIPEG. THE MAIN CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE THE COVERAGE OF PRECIP
ACROSS THE REGION. SHOWERS WERE PROGRESSING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS IS AN EXTENSION OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ENTRAINMENT FROM THE ATLANTIC AND THE AFOREMENTIONED
COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT. PER THE LATEST HRRR/HIRESWRF REFLECTIVITY
FORECASTS...EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO PRIMARILY IMPACT LOCATIONS
WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION /MID HUDSON VALLEY...NW
CT AND SOUTHERN BERKS/ THROUGH THIS EARLY MORNING.
MEANWHILE...UPSTREAM WAVE CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST-NORTHEAST. HERE
MORE SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP WITHIN THE HIGHER THETA-E AIR AS WE
WILL INCREASE POPS FOR THE DACKS THROUGH THIS EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.

THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS...THE COASTAL WAVE CONTINUES TO
EXHIBIT SLOW INTENSIFICATION. FURTHERMORE...UPSTREAM WAVE
APPROACHES THE CENTRAL-EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. AN AREA OF
SUBSIDENCE SHOULD EVOLVE ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND INTO
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AS THE COASTAL WAVE TRACKS WELL OFFSHORE. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW TIME FOR OUR REGION TO FULLY FEEL THIS WARM SECTOR
WITH BREAKS OF SUNSHINE. H850 TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB WELL
INTO THE MID TEENS WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO
APPROACH 80F FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND 70S ELSEWHERE.

AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD...SURFACE DEWPOINTS TOO WILL CLIMB TO
AROUND 60F OR GREATER FOR THE REGION. AS THE UPSTREAM WAVE
APPROACHES WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
WILL INCREASE. PER COORDINATION FROM SPC...THE ENTIRE REGION IS
NOW WITHIN A "SEE TEXT" WITH 5% PROBABILITIES. 4KM SPC WRF
REFLECTIVITY ALONG WITH THE HRRR AND LOCAL HIRESWRF SHOW A SCT-BKN
LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS EASTERN NY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SBCAPES CLIMB INTO THE MID 100S J/KG
WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEARS CLIMBING TOWARD 50KTS. SO A LOW CAPE AND
HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WHERE ANY DEEPER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS /WITH OR WITHOUT
THUNDER/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS OUR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND COUNTIES
THIS EVENING WITH THE CONTINUE THREAT FOR SCT-BKN LINE OF
CONVECTION. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FROPA...THE COLDER UPPER POOL WITH
THE TROUGH AND THE THAT LAST WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP THE CLOUDS AND THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS
WHICH THE BETTER PROBABILITIES WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
FURTHERMORE...LAKE ENHANCEMENT FROM LAKE ONTARIO WILL ALSO ASSIST
WITH DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS DELTA T/S CLIMB ABOVE 13C.

MONDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A RATHER BRISK AND COOL DAY WITH CLOUDS
AND THE CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS. THE HEART OF THE COLD POOL /AOA
0C H850/ WILL BE OVERHEAD COINCIDING WITH A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO PROVIDE GUSTS OVER 20KTS. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE ALMOST
15 DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY/S WITH MAINLY 50S ACROSS THE
TERRAIN AND MID-UPPER 60S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS MAY LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOCATIONS DOWNWIND OF THE CATSKILLS LIKELY
EXPERIENCING CLEARING SKIES INCLUDING EASTERN WINDHAM COUNTY OF
SOUTHERN VT. WITH THE LOSS THE SUNLIGHT...SHOWERS TOO SHOULD
DIMINISH WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING BACK TO THE MID-UPR 30S FOR
THE DACKS AND 40S ELSEWHERE /A REMINDER THAT THE GROWING SEASON
HAS ENDED ACROSS NORTHERN HERKIMER...HAMILTON...NORTHERN WARREN
COUNTIES/.

TUESDAY...MODEL TRENDS ARE FAVORING ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MIGRATING ACROSS THE REGION. FRONTOLYSIS WILL BE UNDERWAY AS THE
THERMAL COLUMN WILL BE WARMING THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING AS HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT. SO THERE WILL BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AS HIGH TEMPS ACHIEVE 65-70F FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS AND LOW-MID 60S FOR THE TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGING AT 500 HPA WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE ENTIRE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK. THE 00Z GEFS
SHOWS 500 HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OF 1-2 STD ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE IN
THE WEEK...WITH ANOMALIES OF 2-3 STD ABOVE NORMAL SITUATED JUST TO
OUR NORTHWEST...WHERE THE CORE OF WHERE THE WARMEST HEIGHTS WILL BE
SITUATED.

AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE STRONG SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTROL THE WEATHER THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK AS WELL. THE HIGH WILL
SLOWLY MOVE FROM OVER UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY TO OFF
THE COAST FOR THURS THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE ALLOW WILL
ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPS WILL
GRADUALLY WARM UP THROUGHOUT THE WEEK...WITH VALLEY HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 ON WED...LOW 70S ON THURS...AND MID 70S FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR EACH NIGHT...AND LOWS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S /SOME UPPER 30S OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN/.
MOST AREAS THAT STILL HAVE THE GROWING SEASON ONGOING LOOK TO AVOID
A FROST/FREEZE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WITH A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE...LOW STRATUS CLOUDS HAVE
ALLOWED FOR MVFR CIGS AT KPOU...AND IFR CIGS AT KPSF. THE STRATUS
HAS GENERALLY REMAINED SOUTH OF KALB/KGFL...KEEPING THE LOW CIGS
AWAY FROM THOSE SITES AND ALLOWED FLYING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN VFR AT
KALB. HOWEVER...THE CLEARING SKIES ALLOWED FOR SOME RADIATIONAL FOG
TO DEVELOP AT KGFL. WE CANNOT RULE OUT THE STRATUS TO EXPAND FURTHER
NORTH/WEST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SO WE WILL ALLOW A TEMPO FOR
MVFR CIGS AT KALB...AND IFR CIGS AT KPOU AS WELL...IN CASE THIS
OCCURS.

BY SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...RADIATIONAL FOG SHOULD LIFT AT
KGFL...ALLOWING FOR A GRADUAL RETURN TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY VFR
CONDITIONS THERE AS WELL.  BY THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS...THE
LOW STRATUS SHOULD START TO ERODE AND CIGS WILL LIKELY RETURN BACK
TO VFR AS DAYTIME MIXING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ALLOWS FOR SOME
CLEARING. WHILE CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE FIRST FOR THE VALLEY
TERMINALS...IT MAY TAKE UNTIL AROUND NOON FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO
RETURN AT KPSF.

THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE IN THE DAY WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME RAIN SHOWERS...ESP FOR KGFL...AND A RETURN TO BKN-OVC LOWER
CIGS. FLYING CONDITIONS MAY DROP TO MVFR WITHIN THE PASSING RAIN
SHOWERS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC FOR THUNDER AS WELL...BUT THE
PROBABILITY OF THIS OCCURRING IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT
THIS TIME.

BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT OF THE VALLEY TERMINALS
DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS...BUT LINGERING LOW CLOUDS UPSLOPING
THE TERRAIN MAY ALLOW FOR LOWER CIGS/VSBYS AT KPSF FOR OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. SOME MIST MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE NIGHT...ESP AT
KGFL/KPSF...ALTHOUGH THE EXTENT OF THIS WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON
HOW MUCH RAINFALL OCCURS AND HOW QUICKLY IT CLEAR OUT BEHIND THE
FRONT. FOR NOW...WILL ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS/CIGS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE HIGH ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE
INCREASE PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS...SO EXPECT RH VALUES TO REMAIN
ABOVE 50 PERCENT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WE DRY OUT TUESDAY AS WE
BEGIN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER.

SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 20 MPH TODAY.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST TONIGHT THEN INCREASE IN GUST
MAGNITUDES ON MONDAY WELL OVER 20 MPH AT TIMES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH AND CROSS THE REGION TODAY
BRINGING SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL TO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO GENERALLY BE A TENTH TO A
THIRD OF AN INCH WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ACROSS
ADIRONDACKS.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM








000
FXUS61 KALY 211020
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
619 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A MILD DAY IS EXPECTED FOR THIS LAST OFFICIAL WEEKEND OF
SUMMER.  HOWEVER...THIS WILL NOT LAST TOO LONG AS A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM TO THE REGION TODAY. COOLER
AND BRISK CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL RETURN
FOR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...MOST OF NEXT WEEK
LOOKS DRY...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...THEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 600 AM EDT...MOST OF THE SHOWERS ACROSS THE NYC/LI REGION HAS
REMAINED JUST EAST OF NW CT.  WE HAVE THEREFORE LOWERED POPS FROM
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  OTHERWISE...STRATUS DECK WAS SLOWLY
EXPANDING ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...TACONICS...WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND AND INTO THE DACKS.  SHOWERS WERE DEVELOPING OVER THE TUG
HILL AS WE WILL KEEP POPS INTO THE DACKS THROUGH THIS EARLY
MORNING.  OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME.

AS OF 330 AM EDT...H2O VAPOR LOOP THIS MORNING DEPICTS A COUPLE OF
NOTABLE WAVES THAT WILL HAVE AN IMPACT TO OUR REGION TODAY. THE
FIRST WAVE WAS DEVELOPING JUST EAST OF THE SOUTHEAST COASTLINE.
THE SECOND WAVE AS QUICKLY APPROACHING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION AND THE LAST WAVE WAS FURTHER UPSTREAM APPROACHING LAKE
WINNIPEG. THE MAIN CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE THE COVERAGE OF PRECIP
ACROSS THE REGION. SHOWERS WERE PROGRESSING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS IS AN EXTENSION OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ENTRAINMENT FROM THE ATLANTIC AND THE AFOREMENTIONED
COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT. PER THE LATEST HRRR/HIRESWRF REFLECTIVITY
FORECASTS...EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO PRIMARILY IMPACT LOCATIONS
WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION /MID HUDSON VALLEY...NW
CT AND SOUTHERN BERKS/ THROUGH THIS EARLY MORNING.
MEANWHILE...UPSTREAM WAVE CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST-NORTHEAST. HERE
MORE SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP WITHIN THE HIGHER THETA-E AIR AS WE
WILL INCREASE POPS FOR THE DACKS THROUGH THIS EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.

THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS...THE COASTAL WAVE CONTINUES TO
EXHIBIT SLOW INTENSIFICATION. FURTHERMORE...UPSTREAM WAVE
APPROACHES THE CENTRAL-EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. AN AREA OF
SUBSIDENCE SHOULD EVOLVE ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND INTO
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AS THE COASTAL WAVE TRACKS WELL OFFSHORE. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW TIME FOR OUR REGION TO FULLY FEEL THIS WARM SECTOR
WITH BREAKS OF SUNSHINE. H850 TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB WELL
INTO THE MID TEENS WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO
APPROACH 80F FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND 70S ELSEWHERE.

AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD...SURFACE DEWPOINTS TOO WILL CLIMB TO
AROUND 60F OR GREATER FOR THE REGION. AS THE UPSTREAM WAVE
APPROACHES WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
WILL INCREASE. PER COORDINATION FROM SPC...THE ENTIRE REGION IS
NOW WITHIN A "SEE TEXT" WITH 5% PROBABILITIES. 4KM SPC WRF
REFLECTIVITY ALONG WITH THE HRRR AND LOCAL HIRESWRF SHOW A SCT-BKN
LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS EASTERN NY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SBCAPES CLIMB INTO THE MID 100S J/KG
WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEARS CLIMBING TOWARD 50KTS. SO A LOW CAPE AND
HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WHERE ANY DEEPER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS /WITH OR WITHOUT
THUNDER/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS OUR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND COUNTIES
THIS EVENING WITH THE CONTINUE THREAT FOR SCT-BKN LINE OF
CONVECTION. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FROPA...THE COLDER UPPER POOL WITH
THE TROUGH AND THE THAT LAST WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP THE CLOUDS AND THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS
WHICH THE BETTER PROBABILITIES WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
FURTHERMORE...LAKE ENHANCEMENT FROM LAKE ONTARIO WILL ALSO ASSIST
WITH DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS DELTA T/S CLIMB ABOVE 13C.

MONDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A RATHER BRISK AND COOL DAY WITH CLOUDS
AND THE CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS. THE HEART OF THE COLD POOL /AOA
0C H850/ WILL BE OVERHEAD COINCIDING WITH A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO PROVIDE GUSTS OVER 20KTS. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE ALMOST
15 DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY/S WITH MAINLY 50S ACROSS THE
TERRAIN AND MID-UPPER 60S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS MAY LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOCATIONS DOWNWIND OF THE CATSKILLS LIKELY
EXPERIENCING CLEARING SKIES INCLUDING EASTERN WINDHAM COUNTY OF
SOUTHERN VT. WITH THE LOSS THE SUNLIGHT...SHOWERS TOO SHOULD
DIMINISH WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING BACK TO THE MID-UPR 30S FOR
THE DACKS AND 40S ELSEWHERE /A REMINDER THAT THE GROWING SEASON
HAS ENDED ACROSS NORTHERN HERKIMER...HAMILTON...NORTHERN WARREN
COUNTIES/.

TUESDAY...MODEL TRENDS ARE FAVORING ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MIGRATING ACROSS THE REGION. FRONTOLYSIS WILL BE UNDERWAY AS THE
THERMAL COLUMN WILL BE WARMING THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING AS HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT. SO THERE WILL BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AS HIGH TEMPS ACHIEVE 65-70F FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS AND LOW-MID 60S FOR THE TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGING AT 500 HPA WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE ENTIRE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK. THE 00Z GEFS
SHOWS 500 HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OF 1-2 STD ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE IN
THE WEEK...WITH ANOMALIES OF 2-3 STD ABOVE NORMAL SITUATED JUST TO
OUR NORTHWEST...WHERE THE CORE OF WHERE THE WARMEST HEIGHTS WILL BE
SITUATED.

AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE STRONG SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTROL THE WEATHER THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK AS WELL. THE HIGH WILL
SLOWLY MOVE FROM OVER UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY TO OFF
THE COAST FOR THURS THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE ALLOW WILL
ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPS WILL
GRADUALLY WARM UP THROUGHOUT THE WEEK...WITH VALLEY HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 ON WED...LOW 70S ON THURS...AND MID 70S FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR EACH NIGHT...AND LOWS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S /SOME UPPER 30S OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN/.
MOST AREAS THAT STILL HAVE THE GROWING SEASON ONGOING LOOK TO AVOID
A FROST/FREEZE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY VFR FOR THE HUDSON VALLEY TAF
SITES...AND MVFR AT THE HIGHER TERRAIN TERMINAL OF KPSF. WITH A
PERSISTENTLY MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW...FLYING CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
LOWER TO MVFR FOR ALL SITES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS LOW
STRATUS DEVELOPS AND MOVES UP THE HUDSON VALLEY. A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS...CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR NYC/LONG ISLAND...MAY SCRAPE NEAR
KPSF/KPOU OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SO HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR THIS IN
THE TAFS WITH A VCSH. ALTHOUGH IT CANNOT TOTALLY BE RULED
OUT...WILL NOT INCLUDE IFR CONDITIONS IN THE TAFS AT THIS
TIME...AS MODEL SOUNDINGS/UPSTREAM OBS SUGGEST CIGS WILL ONLY
LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS.

CIGS WILL LIKELY RETURN BACK TO VFR BY THE MID TO LATE MORNING
HOURS ON SUNDAY AS DAYTIME MIXING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ALLOWS FOR
SOME CLEARING. HOWEVER...THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE
IN THE DAY WILL ALLOW FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS...ESP FOR KGFL...AND
A RETURN TO BKN-OVC LOWER CIGS. FLYING CONDITIONS MAY DROP TO MVFR
WITHIN THE PASSING RAIN SHOWERS.

BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT OF THE VALLEY
TERMINALS...BUT LINGERING LOW CLOUDS UPSLOPING THE TERRAIN MAY
ALLOW FOR LOWER CIGS/VSBYS AT KPSF FOR SUN NIGHT. SOME MIST MAY
DEVELOP LATE SUN NIGHT...ESP AT KPSF...ALTHOUGH THE EXTENT OF THIS
WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON HOW MUCH RAINFALL OCCURS AND HOW QUICKLY
IT CLEAR OUT BEHIND THE FRONT.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT TO THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE HIGH ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE
INCREASE PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS...SO EXPECT RH VALUES TO REMAIN
ABOVE 50 PERCENT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WE DRY OUT TUESDAY AS WE
BEGIN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER.

SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 20 MPH TODAY.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST TONIGHT THEN INCREASE IN GUST
MAGNITUDES ON MONDAY WELL OVER 20 MPH AT TIMES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH AND CROSS THE REGION TODAY
BRINGING SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL TO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO GENERALLY BE A TENTH TO A
THIRD OF AN INCH WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ACROSS
ADIRONDACKS.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM


FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY







000
FXUS61 KALY 211020
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
619 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A MILD DAY IS EXPECTED FOR THIS LAST OFFICIAL WEEKEND OF
SUMMER.  HOWEVER...THIS WILL NOT LAST TOO LONG AS A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM TO THE REGION TODAY. COOLER
AND BRISK CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL RETURN
FOR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...MOST OF NEXT WEEK
LOOKS DRY...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...THEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 600 AM EDT...MOST OF THE SHOWERS ACROSS THE NYC/LI REGION HAS
REMAINED JUST EAST OF NW CT.  WE HAVE THEREFORE LOWERED POPS FROM
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  OTHERWISE...STRATUS DECK WAS SLOWLY
EXPANDING ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...TACONICS...WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND AND INTO THE DACKS.  SHOWERS WERE DEVELOPING OVER THE TUG
HILL AS WE WILL KEEP POPS INTO THE DACKS THROUGH THIS EARLY
MORNING.  OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME.

AS OF 330 AM EDT...H2O VAPOR LOOP THIS MORNING DEPICTS A COUPLE OF
NOTABLE WAVES THAT WILL HAVE AN IMPACT TO OUR REGION TODAY. THE
FIRST WAVE WAS DEVELOPING JUST EAST OF THE SOUTHEAST COASTLINE.
THE SECOND WAVE AS QUICKLY APPROACHING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION AND THE LAST WAVE WAS FURTHER UPSTREAM APPROACHING LAKE
WINNIPEG. THE MAIN CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE THE COVERAGE OF PRECIP
ACROSS THE REGION. SHOWERS WERE PROGRESSING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS IS AN EXTENSION OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ENTRAINMENT FROM THE ATLANTIC AND THE AFOREMENTIONED
COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT. PER THE LATEST HRRR/HIRESWRF REFLECTIVITY
FORECASTS...EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO PRIMARILY IMPACT LOCATIONS
WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION /MID HUDSON VALLEY...NW
CT AND SOUTHERN BERKS/ THROUGH THIS EARLY MORNING.
MEANWHILE...UPSTREAM WAVE CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST-NORTHEAST. HERE
MORE SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP WITHIN THE HIGHER THETA-E AIR AS WE
WILL INCREASE POPS FOR THE DACKS THROUGH THIS EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.

THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS...THE COASTAL WAVE CONTINUES TO
EXHIBIT SLOW INTENSIFICATION. FURTHERMORE...UPSTREAM WAVE
APPROACHES THE CENTRAL-EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. AN AREA OF
SUBSIDENCE SHOULD EVOLVE ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND INTO
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AS THE COASTAL WAVE TRACKS WELL OFFSHORE. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW TIME FOR OUR REGION TO FULLY FEEL THIS WARM SECTOR
WITH BREAKS OF SUNSHINE. H850 TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB WELL
INTO THE MID TEENS WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO
APPROACH 80F FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND 70S ELSEWHERE.

AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD...SURFACE DEWPOINTS TOO WILL CLIMB TO
AROUND 60F OR GREATER FOR THE REGION. AS THE UPSTREAM WAVE
APPROACHES WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
WILL INCREASE. PER COORDINATION FROM SPC...THE ENTIRE REGION IS
NOW WITHIN A "SEE TEXT" WITH 5% PROBABILITIES. 4KM SPC WRF
REFLECTIVITY ALONG WITH THE HRRR AND LOCAL HIRESWRF SHOW A SCT-BKN
LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS EASTERN NY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SBCAPES CLIMB INTO THE MID 100S J/KG
WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEARS CLIMBING TOWARD 50KTS. SO A LOW CAPE AND
HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WHERE ANY DEEPER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS /WITH OR WITHOUT
THUNDER/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS OUR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND COUNTIES
THIS EVENING WITH THE CONTINUE THREAT FOR SCT-BKN LINE OF
CONVECTION. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FROPA...THE COLDER UPPER POOL WITH
THE TROUGH AND THE THAT LAST WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP THE CLOUDS AND THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS
WHICH THE BETTER PROBABILITIES WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
FURTHERMORE...LAKE ENHANCEMENT FROM LAKE ONTARIO WILL ALSO ASSIST
WITH DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS DELTA T/S CLIMB ABOVE 13C.

MONDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A RATHER BRISK AND COOL DAY WITH CLOUDS
AND THE CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS. THE HEART OF THE COLD POOL /AOA
0C H850/ WILL BE OVERHEAD COINCIDING WITH A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO PROVIDE GUSTS OVER 20KTS. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE ALMOST
15 DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY/S WITH MAINLY 50S ACROSS THE
TERRAIN AND MID-UPPER 60S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS MAY LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOCATIONS DOWNWIND OF THE CATSKILLS LIKELY
EXPERIENCING CLEARING SKIES INCLUDING EASTERN WINDHAM COUNTY OF
SOUTHERN VT. WITH THE LOSS THE SUNLIGHT...SHOWERS TOO SHOULD
DIMINISH WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING BACK TO THE MID-UPR 30S FOR
THE DACKS AND 40S ELSEWHERE /A REMINDER THAT THE GROWING SEASON
HAS ENDED ACROSS NORTHERN HERKIMER...HAMILTON...NORTHERN WARREN
COUNTIES/.

TUESDAY...MODEL TRENDS ARE FAVORING ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MIGRATING ACROSS THE REGION. FRONTOLYSIS WILL BE UNDERWAY AS THE
THERMAL COLUMN WILL BE WARMING THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING AS HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT. SO THERE WILL BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AS HIGH TEMPS ACHIEVE 65-70F FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS AND LOW-MID 60S FOR THE TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGING AT 500 HPA WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE ENTIRE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK. THE 00Z GEFS
SHOWS 500 HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OF 1-2 STD ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE IN
THE WEEK...WITH ANOMALIES OF 2-3 STD ABOVE NORMAL SITUATED JUST TO
OUR NORTHWEST...WHERE THE CORE OF WHERE THE WARMEST HEIGHTS WILL BE
SITUATED.

AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE STRONG SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTROL THE WEATHER THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK AS WELL. THE HIGH WILL
SLOWLY MOVE FROM OVER UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY TO OFF
THE COAST FOR THURS THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE ALLOW WILL
ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPS WILL
GRADUALLY WARM UP THROUGHOUT THE WEEK...WITH VALLEY HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 ON WED...LOW 70S ON THURS...AND MID 70S FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR EACH NIGHT...AND LOWS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S /SOME UPPER 30S OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN/.
MOST AREAS THAT STILL HAVE THE GROWING SEASON ONGOING LOOK TO AVOID
A FROST/FREEZE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY VFR FOR THE HUDSON VALLEY TAF
SITES...AND MVFR AT THE HIGHER TERRAIN TERMINAL OF KPSF. WITH A
PERSISTENTLY MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW...FLYING CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
LOWER TO MVFR FOR ALL SITES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS LOW
STRATUS DEVELOPS AND MOVES UP THE HUDSON VALLEY. A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS...CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR NYC/LONG ISLAND...MAY SCRAPE NEAR
KPSF/KPOU OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SO HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR THIS IN
THE TAFS WITH A VCSH. ALTHOUGH IT CANNOT TOTALLY BE RULED
OUT...WILL NOT INCLUDE IFR CONDITIONS IN THE TAFS AT THIS
TIME...AS MODEL SOUNDINGS/UPSTREAM OBS SUGGEST CIGS WILL ONLY
LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS.

CIGS WILL LIKELY RETURN BACK TO VFR BY THE MID TO LATE MORNING
HOURS ON SUNDAY AS DAYTIME MIXING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ALLOWS FOR
SOME CLEARING. HOWEVER...THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE
IN THE DAY WILL ALLOW FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS...ESP FOR KGFL...AND
A RETURN TO BKN-OVC LOWER CIGS. FLYING CONDITIONS MAY DROP TO MVFR
WITHIN THE PASSING RAIN SHOWERS.

BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT OF THE VALLEY
TERMINALS...BUT LINGERING LOW CLOUDS UPSLOPING THE TERRAIN MAY
ALLOW FOR LOWER CIGS/VSBYS AT KPSF FOR SUN NIGHT. SOME MIST MAY
DEVELOP LATE SUN NIGHT...ESP AT KPSF...ALTHOUGH THE EXTENT OF THIS
WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON HOW MUCH RAINFALL OCCURS AND HOW QUICKLY
IT CLEAR OUT BEHIND THE FRONT.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT TO THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE HIGH ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE
INCREASE PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS...SO EXPECT RH VALUES TO REMAIN
ABOVE 50 PERCENT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WE DRY OUT TUESDAY AS WE
BEGIN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER.

SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 20 MPH TODAY.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST TONIGHT THEN INCREASE IN GUST
MAGNITUDES ON MONDAY WELL OVER 20 MPH AT TIMES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH AND CROSS THE REGION TODAY
BRINGING SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL TO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO GENERALLY BE A TENTH TO A
THIRD OF AN INCH WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ACROSS
ADIRONDACKS.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM


FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY








000
FXUS61 KOKX 210951
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
551 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL PASS EAST OF THE
REGION TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON MONDAY...AND REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST UPDATE TO REFLECT LATEST OBSERVATIONS. THE HEAVIES OF THE
RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL ACROSS EASTERN NASSAU COUNTY AND WESTERN
SUFFOLK AND EXTENDS NORTHWARD INTO NEW HAVEN AND MIDDLESEX
COUNTIES IN CT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS THERE HAVE RANGED FROM 0.50 TO
1.25 WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THINKING THE RAINFALL WILL
CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO BEFORE FINALLY DISSIPATING.

OTHERWISE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND
TODAY. AS A RESULT...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL
FALL ACROSS THE LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT. THERE MAY ALSO BE AN
ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO...HOWEVER THE CHANCES ARE LOW AND
WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. THE HEAVIEST OF THE RAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING LOW WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE NOT
TO IMPACT THE AREA.

WE SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING BY AFTERNOON...WITH SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER
WEATHER. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN SECTIONS
OF THE CWA...WHERE SOME SHOWERS COULD BE POSSIBLE WITH AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S
IN MANY PLACES EXCEPT FAR EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND FAR SE CT WHERE CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS WILL BE SLOWER TO DEPART...AND IN THE HIGHER INTERIOR
ELEVATIONS.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC OCEAN FACING
BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATING THE FRONT WILL COME THROUGH MOSTLY DRY. WILL KEEP SOME
CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH MIDNIGHT FROM WESTERN LONG ISLAND
AND WESTERN CT POINTS WEST. ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTION...THINKING
THE SHOWERS WILL NOT MAKE IT OUT THIS FAR. EXPECT CLEARING AFTER THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 55-60
INLAND...AND 60-65 IN NYC METRO AND ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT LIKELY JUST TO THE EAST OF
THE AREA. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST TO PASS EAST OF THE
AREA LATE MONDAY. AS OF NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH THE DRY FORECAST TO
START MONDAY WITH THE FRONT EAST OF THE REGION AND DOWNSLOPING
NORTHWESTERLY WIND AIDING IN DRYING THE LOWER LEVELS.

A STRONG RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
THE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE A
COOL CANADIAN AIR MASS BUILD IN MONDAY AND THEN REMAINS THROUGH
SATURDAY. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE COOLER THAN
NORMAL...THEN A WARMING TREND SETS UP FOR THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY AS THE AIR MASS MODIFIES.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK COASTAL LOW TRACKS NE...JUST SE OF THE AREA TODAY...WITH A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT.

MVFR TO IFR CIGS IN STRATUS AND RAIN SHOWERS ACTIVITY THIS
MORNING. MAIN RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF NYC
TERMINALS THIS MORNING. ISOLATED TSRA POSSIBLE.

CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH MVFR TO VFR THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN SHOWER THREAT SHIFTING
TO MAINLY KISP/KGON. SLOWER IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS FOR EASTERN
TERMINALS. KGON LIKELY REMAINS MVFR OR LOWER FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY.

ISOLATED -SHRA POSSIBLE WITH COLD FRONT TONIGHT...BUT MAINLY VFR
CONDS EXPECTED AT WESTERN TERMINALS. BRIEF MVFR OR LOWER CONDS
POSSIBLE AT KISP/KBDR LATE AFT/EVE...LIKELY MVFR OR LOWER AT
KGON...UNTIL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

LIGHT N FLOW CITY TERMINALS AND SE ACROSS EASTERN TERMINALS THIS
MORNING. FLOW SHOULD BECOME S/SE FOR COASTAL TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON...SW FOR KSWF AND POSSIBLY KEWR/KTEB. SW FLOW THIS
EVENING FOR ALL TERMINALS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...SHIFT TO THE NW
BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.LATE TONIGHT...VFR.
.MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. NW WINDS G20KT POSSIBLE...BECOMING N
MONDAY NIGHT.
.TUESDAY-THURSDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS ARE BETWEEN 4 AND 5 FT. WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE
HAS SEAS REACHING SCA LEVELS EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN SUBSIDING FOR
A BRIEF PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE INCREASING ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT
AND MONDAY. AS A RESULT...HAVE PUT UP A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS ON THE THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH MONDAY.

SEAS INCREASE TONIGHT AS SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PASSING TO
THE SE ARRIVE.

A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING EAST OF THE FORECAST WATERS EARLY MONDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE WEST. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS
WILL CONTINUE AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS MONDAY...AND SOME GUSTS DURING
MONDAY ON ALL THE FORECAST WATERS MAY REACH 20-25 KT AT TIMES. SEAS
WILL SUBSIDE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS INTO AT LEAST FRIDAY WITH
WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT ARE PRODUCING
ANYWHERE FROM A QUARTER TO ABOUT THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAIN.
CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED 1 INCH AMOUNTS IN LOCATIONS THAT ARE
SEEING MULTIPLE HEAVY SHOWERS OCCUR. NO FLASH FLOODING IS
EXPECTED...BUT SOME LOCALIZED POOR DRAINAGE IS POSSIBLE WHERE THE
HEAVIEST RAIN OCCURS.

WEST OF NYC...LESS THAN 1/4 INCH OF RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT AS A LOW PASSES OFFSHORE...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE SUNDAY NIGHT. THEN DRY MON THROUGH SAT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC
NEAR TERM...BC
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...BC/MET
HYDROLOGY...BC







000
FXUS61 KOKX 210951
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
551 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL PASS EAST OF THE
REGION TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON MONDAY...AND REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST UPDATE TO REFLECT LATEST OBSERVATIONS. THE HEAVIES OF THE
RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL ACROSS EASTERN NASSAU COUNTY AND WESTERN
SUFFOLK AND EXTENDS NORTHWARD INTO NEW HAVEN AND MIDDLESEX
COUNTIES IN CT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS THERE HAVE RANGED FROM 0.50 TO
1.25 WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THINKING THE RAINFALL WILL
CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO BEFORE FINALLY DISSIPATING.

OTHERWISE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND
TODAY. AS A RESULT...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL
FALL ACROSS THE LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT. THERE MAY ALSO BE AN
ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO...HOWEVER THE CHANCES ARE LOW AND
WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. THE HEAVIEST OF THE RAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING LOW WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE NOT
TO IMPACT THE AREA.

WE SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING BY AFTERNOON...WITH SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER
WEATHER. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN SECTIONS
OF THE CWA...WHERE SOME SHOWERS COULD BE POSSIBLE WITH AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S
IN MANY PLACES EXCEPT FAR EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND FAR SE CT WHERE CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS WILL BE SLOWER TO DEPART...AND IN THE HIGHER INTERIOR
ELEVATIONS.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC OCEAN FACING
BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATING THE FRONT WILL COME THROUGH MOSTLY DRY. WILL KEEP SOME
CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH MIDNIGHT FROM WESTERN LONG ISLAND
AND WESTERN CT POINTS WEST. ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTION...THINKING
THE SHOWERS WILL NOT MAKE IT OUT THIS FAR. EXPECT CLEARING AFTER THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 55-60
INLAND...AND 60-65 IN NYC METRO AND ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT LIKELY JUST TO THE EAST OF
THE AREA. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST TO PASS EAST OF THE
AREA LATE MONDAY. AS OF NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH THE DRY FORECAST TO
START MONDAY WITH THE FRONT EAST OF THE REGION AND DOWNSLOPING
NORTHWESTERLY WIND AIDING IN DRYING THE LOWER LEVELS.

A STRONG RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
THE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE A
COOL CANADIAN AIR MASS BUILD IN MONDAY AND THEN REMAINS THROUGH
SATURDAY. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE COOLER THAN
NORMAL...THEN A WARMING TREND SETS UP FOR THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY AS THE AIR MASS MODIFIES.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK COASTAL LOW TRACKS NE...JUST SE OF THE AREA TODAY...WITH A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT.

MVFR TO IFR CIGS IN STRATUS AND RAIN SHOWERS ACTIVITY THIS
MORNING. MAIN RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF NYC
TERMINALS THIS MORNING. ISOLATED TSRA POSSIBLE.

CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH MVFR TO VFR THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN SHOWER THREAT SHIFTING
TO MAINLY KISP/KGON. SLOWER IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS FOR EASTERN
TERMINALS. KGON LIKELY REMAINS MVFR OR LOWER FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY.

ISOLATED -SHRA POSSIBLE WITH COLD FRONT TONIGHT...BUT MAINLY VFR
CONDS EXPECTED AT WESTERN TERMINALS. BRIEF MVFR OR LOWER CONDS
POSSIBLE AT KISP/KBDR LATE AFT/EVE...LIKELY MVFR OR LOWER AT
KGON...UNTIL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

LIGHT N FLOW CITY TERMINALS AND SE ACROSS EASTERN TERMINALS THIS
MORNING. FLOW SHOULD BECOME S/SE FOR COASTAL TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON...SW FOR KSWF AND POSSIBLY KEWR/KTEB. SW FLOW THIS
EVENING FOR ALL TERMINALS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...SHIFT TO THE NW
BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.LATE TONIGHT...VFR.
.MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. NW WINDS G20KT POSSIBLE...BECOMING N
MONDAY NIGHT.
.TUESDAY-THURSDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS ARE BETWEEN 4 AND 5 FT. WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE
HAS SEAS REACHING SCA LEVELS EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN SUBSIDING FOR
A BRIEF PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE INCREASING ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT
AND MONDAY. AS A RESULT...HAVE PUT UP A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS ON THE THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH MONDAY.

SEAS INCREASE TONIGHT AS SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PASSING TO
THE SE ARRIVE.

A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING EAST OF THE FORECAST WATERS EARLY MONDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE WEST. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS
WILL CONTINUE AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS MONDAY...AND SOME GUSTS DURING
MONDAY ON ALL THE FORECAST WATERS MAY REACH 20-25 KT AT TIMES. SEAS
WILL SUBSIDE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS INTO AT LEAST FRIDAY WITH
WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT ARE PRODUCING
ANYWHERE FROM A QUARTER TO ABOUT THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAIN.
CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED 1 INCH AMOUNTS IN LOCATIONS THAT ARE
SEEING MULTIPLE HEAVY SHOWERS OCCUR. NO FLASH FLOODING IS
EXPECTED...BUT SOME LOCALIZED POOR DRAINAGE IS POSSIBLE WHERE THE
HEAVIEST RAIN OCCURS.

WEST OF NYC...LESS THAN 1/4 INCH OF RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT AS A LOW PASSES OFFSHORE...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE SUNDAY NIGHT. THEN DRY MON THROUGH SAT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC
NEAR TERM...BC
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...BC/MET
HYDROLOGY...BC







000
FXUS61 KOKX 210951
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
551 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL PASS EAST OF THE
REGION TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON MONDAY...AND REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST UPDATE TO REFLECT LATEST OBSERVATIONS. THE HEAVIES OF THE
RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL ACROSS EASTERN NASSAU COUNTY AND WESTERN
SUFFOLK AND EXTENDS NORTHWARD INTO NEW HAVEN AND MIDDLESEX
COUNTIES IN CT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS THERE HAVE RANGED FROM 0.50 TO
1.25 WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THINKING THE RAINFALL WILL
CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO BEFORE FINALLY DISSIPATING.

OTHERWISE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND
TODAY. AS A RESULT...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL
FALL ACROSS THE LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT. THERE MAY ALSO BE AN
ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO...HOWEVER THE CHANCES ARE LOW AND
WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. THE HEAVIEST OF THE RAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING LOW WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE NOT
TO IMPACT THE AREA.

WE SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING BY AFTERNOON...WITH SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER
WEATHER. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN SECTIONS
OF THE CWA...WHERE SOME SHOWERS COULD BE POSSIBLE WITH AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S
IN MANY PLACES EXCEPT FAR EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND FAR SE CT WHERE CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS WILL BE SLOWER TO DEPART...AND IN THE HIGHER INTERIOR
ELEVATIONS.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC OCEAN FACING
BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATING THE FRONT WILL COME THROUGH MOSTLY DRY. WILL KEEP SOME
CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH MIDNIGHT FROM WESTERN LONG ISLAND
AND WESTERN CT POINTS WEST. ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTION...THINKING
THE SHOWERS WILL NOT MAKE IT OUT THIS FAR. EXPECT CLEARING AFTER THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 55-60
INLAND...AND 60-65 IN NYC METRO AND ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT LIKELY JUST TO THE EAST OF
THE AREA. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST TO PASS EAST OF THE
AREA LATE MONDAY. AS OF NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH THE DRY FORECAST TO
START MONDAY WITH THE FRONT EAST OF THE REGION AND DOWNSLOPING
NORTHWESTERLY WIND AIDING IN DRYING THE LOWER LEVELS.

A STRONG RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
THE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE A
COOL CANADIAN AIR MASS BUILD IN MONDAY AND THEN REMAINS THROUGH
SATURDAY. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE COOLER THAN
NORMAL...THEN A WARMING TREND SETS UP FOR THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY AS THE AIR MASS MODIFIES.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK COASTAL LOW TRACKS NE...JUST SE OF THE AREA TODAY...WITH A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT.

MVFR TO IFR CIGS IN STRATUS AND RAIN SHOWERS ACTIVITY THIS
MORNING. MAIN RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF NYC
TERMINALS THIS MORNING. ISOLATED TSRA POSSIBLE.

CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH MVFR TO VFR THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN SHOWER THREAT SHIFTING
TO MAINLY KISP/KGON. SLOWER IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS FOR EASTERN
TERMINALS. KGON LIKELY REMAINS MVFR OR LOWER FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY.

ISOLATED -SHRA POSSIBLE WITH COLD FRONT TONIGHT...BUT MAINLY VFR
CONDS EXPECTED AT WESTERN TERMINALS. BRIEF MVFR OR LOWER CONDS
POSSIBLE AT KISP/KBDR LATE AFT/EVE...LIKELY MVFR OR LOWER AT
KGON...UNTIL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

LIGHT N FLOW CITY TERMINALS AND SE ACROSS EASTERN TERMINALS THIS
MORNING. FLOW SHOULD BECOME S/SE FOR COASTAL TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON...SW FOR KSWF AND POSSIBLY KEWR/KTEB. SW FLOW THIS
EVENING FOR ALL TERMINALS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...SHIFT TO THE NW
BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.LATE TONIGHT...VFR.
.MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. NW WINDS G20KT POSSIBLE...BECOMING N
MONDAY NIGHT.
.TUESDAY-THURSDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS ARE BETWEEN 4 AND 5 FT. WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE
HAS SEAS REACHING SCA LEVELS EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN SUBSIDING FOR
A BRIEF PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE INCREASING ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT
AND MONDAY. AS A RESULT...HAVE PUT UP A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS ON THE THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH MONDAY.

SEAS INCREASE TONIGHT AS SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PASSING TO
THE SE ARRIVE.

A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING EAST OF THE FORECAST WATERS EARLY MONDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE WEST. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS
WILL CONTINUE AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS MONDAY...AND SOME GUSTS DURING
MONDAY ON ALL THE FORECAST WATERS MAY REACH 20-25 KT AT TIMES. SEAS
WILL SUBSIDE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS INTO AT LEAST FRIDAY WITH
WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT ARE PRODUCING
ANYWHERE FROM A QUARTER TO ABOUT THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAIN.
CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED 1 INCH AMOUNTS IN LOCATIONS THAT ARE
SEEING MULTIPLE HEAVY SHOWERS OCCUR. NO FLASH FLOODING IS
EXPECTED...BUT SOME LOCALIZED POOR DRAINAGE IS POSSIBLE WHERE THE
HEAVIEST RAIN OCCURS.

WEST OF NYC...LESS THAN 1/4 INCH OF RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT AS A LOW PASSES OFFSHORE...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE SUNDAY NIGHT. THEN DRY MON THROUGH SAT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC
NEAR TERM...BC
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...BC/MET
HYDROLOGY...BC







000
FXUS61 KOKX 210951
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
551 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL PASS EAST OF THE
REGION TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON MONDAY...AND REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST UPDATE TO REFLECT LATEST OBSERVATIONS. THE HEAVIES OF THE
RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL ACROSS EASTERN NASSAU COUNTY AND WESTERN
SUFFOLK AND EXTENDS NORTHWARD INTO NEW HAVEN AND MIDDLESEX
COUNTIES IN CT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS THERE HAVE RANGED FROM 0.50 TO
1.25 WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THINKING THE RAINFALL WILL
CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO BEFORE FINALLY DISSIPATING.

OTHERWISE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND
TODAY. AS A RESULT...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL
FALL ACROSS THE LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT. THERE MAY ALSO BE AN
ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO...HOWEVER THE CHANCES ARE LOW AND
WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. THE HEAVIEST OF THE RAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING LOW WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE NOT
TO IMPACT THE AREA.

WE SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING BY AFTERNOON...WITH SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER
WEATHER. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN SECTIONS
OF THE CWA...WHERE SOME SHOWERS COULD BE POSSIBLE WITH AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S
IN MANY PLACES EXCEPT FAR EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND FAR SE CT WHERE CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS WILL BE SLOWER TO DEPART...AND IN THE HIGHER INTERIOR
ELEVATIONS.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC OCEAN FACING
BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATING THE FRONT WILL COME THROUGH MOSTLY DRY. WILL KEEP SOME
CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH MIDNIGHT FROM WESTERN LONG ISLAND
AND WESTERN CT POINTS WEST. ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTION...THINKING
THE SHOWERS WILL NOT MAKE IT OUT THIS FAR. EXPECT CLEARING AFTER THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 55-60
INLAND...AND 60-65 IN NYC METRO AND ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT LIKELY JUST TO THE EAST OF
THE AREA. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST TO PASS EAST OF THE
AREA LATE MONDAY. AS OF NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH THE DRY FORECAST TO
START MONDAY WITH THE FRONT EAST OF THE REGION AND DOWNSLOPING
NORTHWESTERLY WIND AIDING IN DRYING THE LOWER LEVELS.

A STRONG RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
THE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE A
COOL CANADIAN AIR MASS BUILD IN MONDAY AND THEN REMAINS THROUGH
SATURDAY. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE COOLER THAN
NORMAL...THEN A WARMING TREND SETS UP FOR THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY AS THE AIR MASS MODIFIES.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK COASTAL LOW TRACKS NE...JUST SE OF THE AREA TODAY...WITH A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT.

MVFR TO IFR CIGS IN STRATUS AND RAIN SHOWERS ACTIVITY THIS
MORNING. MAIN RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF NYC
TERMINALS THIS MORNING. ISOLATED TSRA POSSIBLE.

CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH MVFR TO VFR THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN SHOWER THREAT SHIFTING
TO MAINLY KISP/KGON. SLOWER IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS FOR EASTERN
TERMINALS. KGON LIKELY REMAINS MVFR OR LOWER FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY.

ISOLATED -SHRA POSSIBLE WITH COLD FRONT TONIGHT...BUT MAINLY VFR
CONDS EXPECTED AT WESTERN TERMINALS. BRIEF MVFR OR LOWER CONDS
POSSIBLE AT KISP/KBDR LATE AFT/EVE...LIKELY MVFR OR LOWER AT
KGON...UNTIL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

LIGHT N FLOW CITY TERMINALS AND SE ACROSS EASTERN TERMINALS THIS
MORNING. FLOW SHOULD BECOME S/SE FOR COASTAL TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON...SW FOR KSWF AND POSSIBLY KEWR/KTEB. SW FLOW THIS
EVENING FOR ALL TERMINALS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...SHIFT TO THE NW
BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.LATE TONIGHT...VFR.
.MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. NW WINDS G20KT POSSIBLE...BECOMING N
MONDAY NIGHT.
.TUESDAY-THURSDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS ARE BETWEEN 4 AND 5 FT. WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE
HAS SEAS REACHING SCA LEVELS EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN SUBSIDING FOR
A BRIEF PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE INCREASING ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT
AND MONDAY. AS A RESULT...HAVE PUT UP A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS ON THE THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH MONDAY.

SEAS INCREASE TONIGHT AS SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PASSING TO
THE SE ARRIVE.

A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING EAST OF THE FORECAST WATERS EARLY MONDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE WEST. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS
WILL CONTINUE AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS MONDAY...AND SOME GUSTS DURING
MONDAY ON ALL THE FORECAST WATERS MAY REACH 20-25 KT AT TIMES. SEAS
WILL SUBSIDE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS INTO AT LEAST FRIDAY WITH
WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT ARE PRODUCING
ANYWHERE FROM A QUARTER TO ABOUT THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAIN.
CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED 1 INCH AMOUNTS IN LOCATIONS THAT ARE
SEEING MULTIPLE HEAVY SHOWERS OCCUR. NO FLASH FLOODING IS
EXPECTED...BUT SOME LOCALIZED POOR DRAINAGE IS POSSIBLE WHERE THE
HEAVIEST RAIN OCCURS.

WEST OF NYC...LESS THAN 1/4 INCH OF RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT AS A LOW PASSES OFFSHORE...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE SUNDAY NIGHT. THEN DRY MON THROUGH SAT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC
NEAR TERM...BC
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...BC/MET
HYDROLOGY...BC







000
FXUS61 KOKX 210857
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
457 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL PASS EAST OF THE
REGION TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON MONDAY...AND REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND
TODAY. AS A RESULT...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL
FALL ACROSS THE LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT. THERE MAY ALSO BE AN
ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO...HOWEVER THE CHANCES ARE LOW AND
WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. THE HEAVIEST OF THE RAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING LOW WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE NOT
TO IMPACT THE AREA.

WE SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING BY AFTERNOON...WITH SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER
WEATHER. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN SECTIONS
OF THE CWA...WHERE SOME SHOWERS COULD BE POSSIBLE WITH AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S
IN MANY PLACES EXCEPT FAR EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND FAR SE CT WHERE CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS WILL BE SLOWER TO DEPART...AND IN THE HIGHER INTERIOR
ELEVATIONS.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC OCEAN FACING
BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATING THE FRONT WILL COME THROUGH MOSTLY DRY. WILL KEEP SOME
CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH MIDNIGHT FROM WESTERN LONG ISLAND
AND WESTERN CT POINTS WEST. ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTION...THINKING
THE SHOWERS WILL NOT MAKE IT OUT THIS FAR. EXPECT CLEARING AFTER THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 55-60
INLAND...AND 60-65 IN NYC METRO AND ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT LIKELY JUST TO THE EAST OF
THE AREA. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST TO PASS EAST OF THE
AREA LATE MONDAY. AS OF NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH THE DRY FORECAST TO
START MONDAY WITH THE FRONT EAST OF THE REGION AND DOWNSLOPING
NORTHWESTERLY WIND AIDING IN DRYING THE LOWER LEVELS.

A STRONG RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
THE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE A
COOL CANADIAN AIR MASS BUILD IN MONDAY AND THEN REMAINS THROUGH
SATURDAY. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE COOLER THAN
NORMAL...THEN A WARMING TREND SETS UP FOR THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY AS THE AIR MASS MODIFIES.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK COASTAL LOW TRACKS NE...JUST SE OF THE AREA TODAY...WITH A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT.

MVFR TO IFR CIGS IN STRATUS AND RAIN SHOWERS ACTIVITY THIS
MORNING. MAIN RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF NYC
TERMINALS THIS MORNING. ISOLATED TSRA POSSIBLE.

CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH MVFR TO VFR THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN SHOWER THREAT SHIFTING
TO MAINLY KISP/KGON. SLOWER IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS FOR EASTERN
TERMINALS. KGON LIKELY REMAINS MVFR OR LOWER FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY.

ISOLATED -SHRA POSSIBLE WITH COLD FRONT TONIGHT...BUT MAINLY VFR
CONDS EXPECTED AT WESTERN TERMINALS. BRIEF MVFR OR LOWER CONDS
POSSIBLE AT KISP/KBDR LATE AFT/EVE...LIKELY MVFR OR LOWER AT
KGON...UNTIL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

LIGHT N FLOW CITY TERMINALS AND SE ACROSS EASTERN TERMINALS THIS
MORNING. FLOW SHOULD BECOME S/SE FOR COASTAL TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON...SW FOR KSWF AND POSSIBLY KEWR/KTEB. SW FLOW THIS
EVENING FOR ALL TERMINALS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...SHIFT TO THE NW
BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.LATE TONIGHT...VFR.
.MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. NW WINDS G20KT POSSIBLE...BECOMING N
MONDAY NIGHT.
.TUESDAY-THURSDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS ARE BETWEEN 4 AND 5 FT. WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE
HAS SEAS REACHING SCA LEVELS EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN SUBSIDING FOR
A BRIEF PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE INCREASING ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT
AND MONDAY. AS A RESULT...HAVE PUT UP A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS ON THE THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH MONDAY.

SEAS INCREASE TONIGHT AS SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PASSING TO
THE SE ARRIVE.

A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING EAST OF THE FORECAST WATERS EARLY MONDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE WEST. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS
WILL CONTINUE AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS MONDAY...AND SOME GUSTS DURING
MONDAY ON ALL THE FORECAST WATERS MAY REACH 20-25 KT AT TIMES. SEAS
WILL SUBSIDE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS INTO AT LEAST FRIDAY WITH
WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT ARE PRODUCING
ANYWHERE FROM A QUARTER TO ABOUT THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAIN.
CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED 1 INCH AMOUNTS IN LOCATIONS THAT ARE
SEEING MULTIPLE HEAVY SHOWERS OCCUR. NO FLASH FLOODING IS
EXPECTED...BUT SOME LOCALIZED POOR DRAINAGE IS POSSIBLE WHERE THE
HEAVIEST RAIN OCCURS.

WEST OF NYC...LESS THAN 1/4 INCH OF RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT AS A LOW PASSES OFFSHORE...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE SUNDAY NIGHT. THEN DRY MON THROUGH SAT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC
NEAR TERM...BC
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...BC/MET
HYDROLOGY...BC






000
FXUS61 KOKX 210857
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
457 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL PASS EAST OF THE
REGION TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON MONDAY...AND REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND
TODAY. AS A RESULT...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL
FALL ACROSS THE LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT. THERE MAY ALSO BE AN
ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO...HOWEVER THE CHANCES ARE LOW AND
WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. THE HEAVIEST OF THE RAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING LOW WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE NOT
TO IMPACT THE AREA.

WE SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING BY AFTERNOON...WITH SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER
WEATHER. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN SECTIONS
OF THE CWA...WHERE SOME SHOWERS COULD BE POSSIBLE WITH AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S
IN MANY PLACES EXCEPT FAR EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND FAR SE CT WHERE CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS WILL BE SLOWER TO DEPART...AND IN THE HIGHER INTERIOR
ELEVATIONS.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC OCEAN FACING
BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATING THE FRONT WILL COME THROUGH MOSTLY DRY. WILL KEEP SOME
CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH MIDNIGHT FROM WESTERN LONG ISLAND
AND WESTERN CT POINTS WEST. ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTION...THINKING
THE SHOWERS WILL NOT MAKE IT OUT THIS FAR. EXPECT CLEARING AFTER THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 55-60
INLAND...AND 60-65 IN NYC METRO AND ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT LIKELY JUST TO THE EAST OF
THE AREA. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST TO PASS EAST OF THE
AREA LATE MONDAY. AS OF NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH THE DRY FORECAST TO
START MONDAY WITH THE FRONT EAST OF THE REGION AND DOWNSLOPING
NORTHWESTERLY WIND AIDING IN DRYING THE LOWER LEVELS.

A STRONG RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
THE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE A
COOL CANADIAN AIR MASS BUILD IN MONDAY AND THEN REMAINS THROUGH
SATURDAY. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE COOLER THAN
NORMAL...THEN A WARMING TREND SETS UP FOR THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY AS THE AIR MASS MODIFIES.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK COASTAL LOW TRACKS NE...JUST SE OF THE AREA TODAY...WITH A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT.

MVFR TO IFR CIGS IN STRATUS AND RAIN SHOWERS ACTIVITY THIS
MORNING. MAIN RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF NYC
TERMINALS THIS MORNING. ISOLATED TSRA POSSIBLE.

CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH MVFR TO VFR THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN SHOWER THREAT SHIFTING
TO MAINLY KISP/KGON. SLOWER IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS FOR EASTERN
TERMINALS. KGON LIKELY REMAINS MVFR OR LOWER FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY.

ISOLATED -SHRA POSSIBLE WITH COLD FRONT TONIGHT...BUT MAINLY VFR
CONDS EXPECTED AT WESTERN TERMINALS. BRIEF MVFR OR LOWER CONDS
POSSIBLE AT KISP/KBDR LATE AFT/EVE...LIKELY MVFR OR LOWER AT
KGON...UNTIL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

LIGHT N FLOW CITY TERMINALS AND SE ACROSS EASTERN TERMINALS THIS
MORNING. FLOW SHOULD BECOME S/SE FOR COASTAL TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON...SW FOR KSWF AND POSSIBLY KEWR/KTEB. SW FLOW THIS
EVENING FOR ALL TERMINALS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...SHIFT TO THE NW
BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.LATE TONIGHT...VFR.
.MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. NW WINDS G20KT POSSIBLE...BECOMING N
MONDAY NIGHT.
.TUESDAY-THURSDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS ARE BETWEEN 4 AND 5 FT. WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE
HAS SEAS REACHING SCA LEVELS EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN SUBSIDING FOR
A BRIEF PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE INCREASING ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT
AND MONDAY. AS A RESULT...HAVE PUT UP A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS ON THE THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH MONDAY.

SEAS INCREASE TONIGHT AS SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PASSING TO
THE SE ARRIVE.

A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING EAST OF THE FORECAST WATERS EARLY MONDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE WEST. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS
WILL CONTINUE AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS MONDAY...AND SOME GUSTS DURING
MONDAY ON ALL THE FORECAST WATERS MAY REACH 20-25 KT AT TIMES. SEAS
WILL SUBSIDE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS INTO AT LEAST FRIDAY WITH
WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT ARE PRODUCING
ANYWHERE FROM A QUARTER TO ABOUT THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAIN.
CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED 1 INCH AMOUNTS IN LOCATIONS THAT ARE
SEEING MULTIPLE HEAVY SHOWERS OCCUR. NO FLASH FLOODING IS
EXPECTED...BUT SOME LOCALIZED POOR DRAINAGE IS POSSIBLE WHERE THE
HEAVIEST RAIN OCCURS.

WEST OF NYC...LESS THAN 1/4 INCH OF RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT AS A LOW PASSES OFFSHORE...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE SUNDAY NIGHT. THEN DRY MON THROUGH SAT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC
NEAR TERM...BC
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...BC/MET
HYDROLOGY...BC







000
FXUS61 KBOX 210814
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
414 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THIS MORNING MAINLY OVER
CONNECTICUT...WESTERN-CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS INTO SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE WILL BECOME LESS NUMEROUS THIS AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO
EAST. WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS TODAY WILL BE REPLACED BY DRIER AND
LESS HUMID WEATHER MONDAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEEK AHEAD...WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES THE FIRST HALF...AND WARMER TEMPS THE LATTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE PRONOUNCED INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS LONG
ISLAND...NYC AND THEN DRAPED ALONG THE NJ COAST. THIS BOUNDARY IS
THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND ISOLATED
TSTMS. THIS INVERTED TROUGH HAS ITS ROOTS IN A TROPICAL PLUME OF
MOISTURE FROM OFF THE MID ATLC COAST NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WITH PWATS UP TO 1.6 INCHES...ABOUT +1 STD ABOVE CLIMO.
MARGINAL INSTABILITY ALOFT WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALMOST MOIST
ADIABATIC AT 6C/KM. THIS IS RESULTING IN EMBEDDED TSTMS WITHIN THESE
BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN.

THE RAP13 HAS BEEN SIMULATING THESE RAIN BANDS THE BEST OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE HRRR. THE RAP13 SHOWS OVER AN INCH OF TOTAL
RAINFALL POSSIBLE BY MIDDAY ACROSS CT INTO WESTERN-CENTRAL MA...WITH
LESS ELSEWHERE. THE INVERTED TROUGH APPEARS TO WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG WITH TROPICAL PLUME MOVING OFFSHORE AND BEING REPLACED BY MID
LEVEL DRY SLOT AFTER 18Z. THUS THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS WILL BE THIS
MORNING.

AS SOME SURFACE HEATING MATERIALIZES THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH DEW
PTS CLIMBING TO 65-70 ALL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST 750 TO 1500 J/KG OF
CAPE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER DRY SLOT OVERSPREADS THE REGION AND THIS MAY
PROVIDE A CAP AND RESULT IN SHOWERS BECOMING LESS NUMEROUS THIS
AFTERNOON.

AS FOR SEVERE WEATHER...THIS MORNING STRONGEST WIND FIELDS INCLUDING
0-1KM SHEAR ARE ACROSS NORTHERN MA AND SOUTHWEST NH. MEANWHILE BEST
INSTABILITY REMAINS OFFSHORE. THUS SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ARE NOT
COLOCATED. HENCE RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS VERY LOW. AS FOR
THIS AFTERNOON...MARGINAL SB INSTABILITY DEVELOPS OVER THE INTERIOR
BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS ALSO MARGINAL AT LESS THAN 30 KT. IN
ADDITION DRY SLOT OVERSPREADING THE REGION SHOULD MINIMIZE THE RISK
OF STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS.

THE MAIN RAIN SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID ATLC TROUGH MAY CLIP
CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE EXPEC