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000
FXUS61 KOKX 040710
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
310 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH OVERNIGHT THEN STALL
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 AM THIS MORNING/...
TWO RATHER DIFFUSE FRONTS APPROACHING FROM THE NW. THE FIRST
FRONT IS FORCING CONVECTION AHEAD OF IT IS BEING MAINTAINED BY
BOTH THERMODYNAMICS IN THE FORM OF HIGH CAPE AND DYNAMICS IN THE
FORM OF A PRONOUNCED JET STREAK.

INSTABILITY IS RATHER IMPRESSIVE. COMPARING LATEST KEWR ACARS
SOUNDING WITH RAP SUPPORTS LI`S ON -2 C AND THE 60KT JET ENTRANCE
WINDS. RAP SOUNDINGS INDICATES CONTINUED DESTABILIZATION THE NEXT
FEW HOURS WITH AREAS TO THE EAST (CT AND LONG ISLAND) BECOMING
VERY UNSTABLE. FOR EXAMPLE...KISP HAS 3000 J/KG OF CAPE AND -6 C
ON THE LI`S.

THUS AM FCSTING THE LINE THAT`S FORMING ALONG THE DELAWARE TO
CONTINUE AND GROW. HAVE ADDED GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN TO THE
TSTM DESCRIPTORS.

WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY SEVERE AND QUICK SPIN UPS.

HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR CT AND LONG ISLAND. EXPECT THE ACTIVITY
IS EAST OF CT AND LONG ISLAND BY 930 AM.

IT LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY BEHIND THE EASTERN PA CLUSTER
WILL WEAKEN - BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING REMAINS LOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /9 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. VERY LITTLE APPRECIABLE
DIFFERENCE WILL BE FELT WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL
AND SIMILAR HUMIDITY AS MONDAY. LATE TONIGHT THE UPPER TROUGH
BUILDS FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST...FORCING THE ATTENDANT SURFACE
FRONT FARTHER OFFSHORE WITH LOWER DEW POINTS ADVECTING INTO THE
REGION. A SUBSEQUENT DECREASE IN HUMIDITY WILL BE FELT AS THIS
OCCURS.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE
OCEAN BEACHES TODAY. A RIP CURRENT STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE OFFSHORE WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER
THE AREA INTO THURSDAY.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEPARTS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH SURFACE LOW OVER THE MID-
WEST TREKKING EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AFFECTING THE AREA MAINLY
FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THERE
IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE IT TRACKS AND THEREFORE HOW MUCH RAIN
WE DO RECEIVE. HOWEVER...IT DOES APPEAR MORE CERTAIN THAT A
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN EVENT IS IN STORE FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.

ISENTROPIC LIFT OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW NOTED IN BOTH THE
12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF...MAINLY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...SO THINKING
THIS WILL BE MORE STRATIFORM RAIN. SURFACE LOW CONTINUES ITS
APPROACH FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS DIFFER IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW.
THE 12Z ECMWF AND 12Z GFS AGREE WITH THE LOW BEING OVER THE NORTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC STATES BY 06Z SATURDAY. THEREAFTER...MODELS DIFFER
QUITE A BIT IN THEIR SOLUTIONS. 12Z ECMWF TREKS THE LOW NORTHEAST IN
SIDE THE 40/70 BENCHMARK THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY WHILE IT SLOWLY
STRENGTHENS WHILE THE GFS WEAKENS THE LOW OVER THE OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OFFSHORE AND WEAKER WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG
IT...WHILE THE 12Z CANADIAN IS AN OUTLIER BEING MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN
THE OTHER MODELS. THEREFORE...SIDED MORE ALONG THE LINES OF THE GFS
AND ECMWF AND KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY

LOW PRESSURE PUSHES AWAY FROM THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS.

OUTSIDE OF FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SEASONABLE FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. RAIN AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN ON FRIDAY...NOT
MAKING IT OUT OF THE 70S REGION-WIDE. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES MAY
PROVE TO BE A BIT LOWER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST.

ARE WATCHING AREAS OF CONVECTION OFF TO THE WEST. THESE STORMS
SHOULD APPROACH THE NYC METRO AROUND 09Z. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
TEMPOS IN TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. HAVE LEFT OUT OF TERMINALS EAST OF
NYC WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE OF ANY THUNDER REACHING THOSE TERMINALS.
AMENDMENTS ARE LIKELY THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR CONVECTION
TIMING.

EXPECT S-SW WINDS OF 5-10 KT AT KNYC TERMINALS AND 5 KT OR LESS
INLAND OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. SOME IFR CIGS
ARE LIKELY FROM KISP AND POINTS EAST FOR LOW STRATUS.

AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE...WINDS SHIFT TO THE W-SW AND INCREASE TO
8-12 KT. GRADIENT TIGHTENS THIS AFTERNOON. LOCAL SEA BREEZES
POSSIBLE AT COASTAL TERMINALS.

SCT SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WED THROUGH SAT...
.TUE NIGHT...SLGT CHC FOR TSTMS MAINLY CSTL TERMINALS IN THE
EVENING. BECOMING VFR OVERNIGHT. SW FLOW BECOMING NW OVERNIGHT.
.WED-THU...VFR. GENERALLY W FLOW.
.FRI...MVFR OR LOWER IN RAIN. WINDS BECOMING NE.
.SAT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN RAIN. NE WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECAST ON TRACK...NO UPDATES AT THIS TIME.

WINDS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL REMAIN STRONG INTO LATE TONIGHT
BEFORE LIGHTENING WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT.

OCEAN SEAS BUILD DUE TO THE INCREASE IN THESE WINDS. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ON THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY EVENING.

OCEAN SEAS WILL BE SUBSIDING TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT 5 FT SEAS MAY
LINGER ON THE EASTERN OCEAN UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY WITH SUB SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MAY PASS OVER
THE WATERS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. OCCASIONAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY WITH SUB SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LOW PRESSURE MAY PASS OVER OR NEAR THE WATERS
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
OCCASIONAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY ON
THE OCEAN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A TENTH TO A QUARTER INCH OF BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL THIS MORNING.
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY HEAVIER THUNDERSTORMS.

A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN WHERE AND WHEN THE
HEAVIEST OF THE RAIN WILL FALL. ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD
LIMIT FLOODING POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
TEWR TERMINAL DOPPLER RADAR REMAINS UNAVAILABLE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 6 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR NYZ075-080-081-178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-
     353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TONGUE
NEAR TERM...TONGUE
SHORT TERM...TONGUE
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...TONGUE
EQUIPMENT...



000
FXUS61 KOKX 040710
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
310 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH OVERNIGHT THEN STALL
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 AM THIS MORNING/...
TWO RATHER DIFFUSE FRONTS APPROACHING FROM THE NW. THE FIRST
FRONT IS FORCING CONVECTION AHEAD OF IT IS BEING MAINTAINED BY
BOTH THERMODYNAMICS IN THE FORM OF HIGH CAPE AND DYNAMICS IN THE
FORM OF A PRONOUNCED JET STREAK.

INSTABILITY IS RATHER IMPRESSIVE. COMPARING LATEST KEWR ACARS
SOUNDING WITH RAP SUPPORTS LI`S ON -2 C AND THE 60KT JET ENTRANCE
WINDS. RAP SOUNDINGS INDICATES CONTINUED DESTABILIZATION THE NEXT
FEW HOURS WITH AREAS TO THE EAST (CT AND LONG ISLAND) BECOMING
VERY UNSTABLE. FOR EXAMPLE...KISP HAS 3000 J/KG OF CAPE AND -6 C
ON THE LI`S.

THUS AM FCSTING THE LINE THAT`S FORMING ALONG THE DELAWARE TO
CONTINUE AND GROW. HAVE ADDED GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN TO THE
TSTM DESCRIPTORS.

WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY SEVERE AND QUICK SPIN UPS.

HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR CT AND LONG ISLAND. EXPECT THE ACTIVITY
IS EAST OF CT AND LONG ISLAND BY 930 AM.

IT LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY BEHIND THE EASTERN PA CLUSTER
WILL WEAKEN - BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING REMAINS LOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /9 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. VERY LITTLE APPRECIABLE
DIFFERENCE WILL BE FELT WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL
AND SIMILAR HUMIDITY AS MONDAY. LATE TONIGHT THE UPPER TROUGH
BUILDS FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST...FORCING THE ATTENDANT SURFACE
FRONT FARTHER OFFSHORE WITH LOWER DEW POINTS ADVECTING INTO THE
REGION. A SUBSEQUENT DECREASE IN HUMIDITY WILL BE FELT AS THIS
OCCURS.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE
OCEAN BEACHES TODAY. A RIP CURRENT STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE OFFSHORE WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER
THE AREA INTO THURSDAY.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEPARTS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH SURFACE LOW OVER THE MID-
WEST TREKKING EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AFFECTING THE AREA MAINLY
FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THERE
IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE IT TRACKS AND THEREFORE HOW MUCH RAIN
WE DO RECEIVE. HOWEVER...IT DOES APPEAR MORE CERTAIN THAT A
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN EVENT IS IN STORE FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.

ISENTROPIC LIFT OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW NOTED IN BOTH THE
12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF...MAINLY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...SO THINKING
THIS WILL BE MORE STRATIFORM RAIN. SURFACE LOW CONTINUES ITS
APPROACH FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS DIFFER IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW.
THE 12Z ECMWF AND 12Z GFS AGREE WITH THE LOW BEING OVER THE NORTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC STATES BY 06Z SATURDAY. THEREAFTER...MODELS DIFFER
QUITE A BIT IN THEIR SOLUTIONS. 12Z ECMWF TREKS THE LOW NORTHEAST IN
SIDE THE 40/70 BENCHMARK THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY WHILE IT SLOWLY
STRENGTHENS WHILE THE GFS WEAKENS THE LOW OVER THE OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OFFSHORE AND WEAKER WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG
IT...WHILE THE 12Z CANADIAN IS AN OUTLIER BEING MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN
THE OTHER MODELS. THEREFORE...SIDED MORE ALONG THE LINES OF THE GFS
AND ECMWF AND KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY

LOW PRESSURE PUSHES AWAY FROM THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS.

OUTSIDE OF FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SEASONABLE FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. RAIN AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN ON FRIDAY...NOT
MAKING IT OUT OF THE 70S REGION-WIDE. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES MAY
PROVE TO BE A BIT LOWER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST.

ARE WATCHING AREAS OF CONVECTION OFF TO THE WEST. THESE STORMS
SHOULD APPROACH THE NYC METRO AROUND 09Z. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
TEMPOS IN TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. HAVE LEFT OUT OF TERMINALS EAST OF
NYC WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE OF ANY THUNDER REACHING THOSE TERMINALS.
AMENDMENTS ARE LIKELY THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR CONVECTION
TIMING.

EXPECT S-SW WINDS OF 5-10 KT AT KNYC TERMINALS AND 5 KT OR LESS
INLAND OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. SOME IFR CIGS
ARE LIKELY FROM KISP AND POINTS EAST FOR LOW STRATUS.

AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE...WINDS SHIFT TO THE W-SW AND INCREASE TO
8-12 KT. GRADIENT TIGHTENS THIS AFTERNOON. LOCAL SEA BREEZES
POSSIBLE AT COASTAL TERMINALS.

SCT SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WED THROUGH SAT...
.TUE NIGHT...SLGT CHC FOR TSTMS MAINLY CSTL TERMINALS IN THE
EVENING. BECOMING VFR OVERNIGHT. SW FLOW BECOMING NW OVERNIGHT.
.WED-THU...VFR. GENERALLY W FLOW.
.FRI...MVFR OR LOWER IN RAIN. WINDS BECOMING NE.
.SAT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN RAIN. NE WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECAST ON TRACK...NO UPDATES AT THIS TIME.

WINDS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL REMAIN STRONG INTO LATE TONIGHT
BEFORE LIGHTENING WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT.

OCEAN SEAS BUILD DUE TO THE INCREASE IN THESE WINDS. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ON THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY EVENING.

OCEAN SEAS WILL BE SUBSIDING TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT 5 FT SEAS MAY
LINGER ON THE EASTERN OCEAN UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY WITH SUB SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MAY PASS OVER
THE WATERS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. OCCASIONAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY WITH SUB SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LOW PRESSURE MAY PASS OVER OR NEAR THE WATERS
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
OCCASIONAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY ON
THE OCEAN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A TENTH TO A QUARTER INCH OF BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL THIS MORNING.
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY HEAVIER THUNDERSTORMS.

A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN WHERE AND WHEN THE
HEAVIEST OF THE RAIN WILL FALL. ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD
LIMIT FLOODING POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
TEWR TERMINAL DOPPLER RADAR REMAINS UNAVAILABLE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 6 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR NYZ075-080-081-178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-
     353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TONGUE
NEAR TERM...TONGUE
SHORT TERM...TONGUE
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...TONGUE
EQUIPMENT...



  [top]

000
FXUS61 KALY 040609
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
209 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT KEEPING THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
STORMS IN THE FORECAST MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE COAST DURING THE
DAY TUESDAY AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TRIGGERING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PRESS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA
WITH A SHORT WAVE ROTATING ABOUT THE BASE ON THE CLOSED
LOW CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO TEMPERATURES BASED ON
OBSERVATIONAL DATA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR WRN NEW ENGLAND BY
DAYBREAK. THE SFC DEWPT BOUNDARY WILL STILL BE PROGRESSING EAST
ACROSS ERN NY. THE NAM IS ADVERTISING ALOT OF INSTABILITY FOR TUE
WITH A DEEPLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THE GFS HAS LESS AGAIN...BUT
THERE IS A SMALL AREA OF HIGH INSTABILITY FROM THE THE MASS PIKE
SOUTH AND EAST INTO NW CT. SPC DOES HAVE LITCHFIELD CTY CLIPPED BY
THE MARGINAL RISK. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE AROUND 6.5C/KM
WITH ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR SOME STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL /NO ENHANCED WORDING YET/...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST. LOW- LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING
DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE PM. DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS OFF THE
ERN CATSKILLS/ERN DACKS MAY ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO GET INTO THE MID
AND U80S IN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION. EXPECT M70S TO
L80S IN MOST OTHER LOCATIONS...EXCEPT OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN
GREENS WHERE SOME U60S TO L70S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE COLD ADVECTION
REGIME...AS H850 TEMPS LOWER TO +10C TO +16C FROM NW TO SE OVER
THE FCST AREA BY THE LATE PM. A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SUNSET.

TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL HEATING THE SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY. THE ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS MAY LINGER THE LONGEST OVER THE SRN DACKS. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60F WITH SOME U40S TO L50S
OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN GREENS. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE QUITE
COMFORTABLE.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE FCST AREA WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER S-CNTRL QUEBEC. IN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW ANOTHER PIECE OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY WILL SWING ACROSS UPSTATE
NY AND NEW ENGLAND. THE BEST CHC OF ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS DUE TO THE
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. H500 TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -15C TO -18C FROM ALY
NORTH AND WEST. THE H500 HEIGHTS ARE ABOUT 2-3 STD DEVS BELOW
NORMAL BASED ON THE LATEST GEFS FOR WED. H850 TEMPS WILL BE 1-2
STD DEVS BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS ON WED WILL BE IN THE M60S TO L70S
OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS...WITH A FEW 80F
READINGS NEAR KPOU. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR COOL NIGHT FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF AUG...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE U40S TO M50S OVER
THE FCST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RETURN TO MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THIS
PERIOD...AND IS EXPECTED TO LAST.  HOWEVER...WEAK DISTURBANCES
INTERMINGLED WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MEAN RATHER SMALL CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS ON SOME DAYS...PARTICULARLY THE MORE SOUTHERN ZONES...
WHICH WILL BE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO A QUASI-STATIONARY MID-ATLANTIC
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  IF ANYTHING...THE LATTER PORTION OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO HAVE THE DRIEST CONDITIONS...GOOD NEWS FOR
WEEKENDERS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S...AND LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE 50S WILL BE EXTREMELY COMMON...WITH LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY VARIATION.
THE NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS AT ALBANY...RESPECTIVELY...ARE IN THE
LOWER 80S AND LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PRESS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA
WITH A SHORT WAVE ROTATING ABOUT THE BASE ON THE CLOSED
LOW CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY. HAVE ADDRESSED THREAT FOR CONVECTION AT TAF
SITES...KALB...KPSF AND KPOU...WITH VCSH.

AS CLOUD COVER DECREASES MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
DUE TO FOG SINCE THE WINDS ARE CALM AND THE GROUND DAMP/WET.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE COAST DURING THE
DAY TUESDAY AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TRIGGERING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE ADDRESSED THIS THREAT
WITH PROB30 GROUPS IN ALL TAFS. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH
ANY CONVECTION WITH BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE.

CALM WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AFTER SUNRISE...THEN SHIFT
MORE TO THE WEST BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. THE WINDS SHOULD BECOME
GUSTY WITH GUSTS INTO THE TEENS FOR A PERIOD TUESDAY BY LATE
MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT-THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU NIGHT-FRI NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTAIN SOME HAIL GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.

AN UPPER LEVEL COULD GENERATE AN ADDITIONAL SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION ON TUESDAY.

OTHERWISE LOOK FOR A REDUCTION IN HEAT AND HUMIDITY...ESPECIALLY
ON WEDNESDAY. WITH A COLD POOL ALOFT AN ADDITIONAL  SHOWER IS
REMOTELY POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY BUT OTHERWISE IT IS DRY.

THE RH VALUES INCREASE TO 75 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH
VALUES WILL LOWER TO 35 TO 55 PERCENT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

SOUTH WIND WILL BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT. THE WIND WILL BECOME
WEST TO SOUTHWEST 5 TO 15 MPH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEST TO
NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH ON WEDNESDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR A WETTING RAIN WILL BE FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING...SOME OF
WHICH HAVE CONTAINED VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS (LOCALIZED TWO INCH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS). HOWEVER...RIVER BASIN AVERAGES WILL BE CLOSER
TO A QUARTER INCH. OTHER THAN THE USUAL LOCALIZED PONDING OF
WATER...THERE SHOULD NOT BE MUCH IF ANY RESPONSE ON ANY OF THE
SIGNIFICANT CREEKS OR RIVERS ACROSS THE REGION.

MORE WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. LITTLE OR NO HYDRO
PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE AT THIS TIME.

MAINLY DRY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

THEN...A MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN IS POSSIBLE FOR FRIDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV/WASULA
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/BGM/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 040609
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
209 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT KEEPING THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
STORMS IN THE FORECAST MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE COAST DURING THE
DAY TUESDAY AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TRIGGERING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PRESS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA
WITH A SHORT WAVE ROTATING ABOUT THE BASE ON THE CLOSED
LOW CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO TEMPERATURES BASED ON
OBSERVATIONAL DATA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR WRN NEW ENGLAND BY
DAYBREAK. THE SFC DEWPT BOUNDARY WILL STILL BE PROGRESSING EAST
ACROSS ERN NY. THE NAM IS ADVERTISING ALOT OF INSTABILITY FOR TUE
WITH A DEEPLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THE GFS HAS LESS AGAIN...BUT
THERE IS A SMALL AREA OF HIGH INSTABILITY FROM THE THE MASS PIKE
SOUTH AND EAST INTO NW CT. SPC DOES HAVE LITCHFIELD CTY CLIPPED BY
THE MARGINAL RISK. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE AROUND 6.5C/KM
WITH ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR SOME STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL /NO ENHANCED WORDING YET/...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST. LOW- LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING
DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE PM. DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS OFF THE
ERN CATSKILLS/ERN DACKS MAY ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO GET INTO THE MID
AND U80S IN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION. EXPECT M70S TO
L80S IN MOST OTHER LOCATIONS...EXCEPT OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN
GREENS WHERE SOME U60S TO L70S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE COLD ADVECTION
REGIME...AS H850 TEMPS LOWER TO +10C TO +16C FROM NW TO SE OVER
THE FCST AREA BY THE LATE PM. A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SUNSET.

TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL HEATING THE SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY. THE ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS MAY LINGER THE LONGEST OVER THE SRN DACKS. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60F WITH SOME U40S TO L50S
OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN GREENS. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE QUITE
COMFORTABLE.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE FCST AREA WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER S-CNTRL QUEBEC. IN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW ANOTHER PIECE OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY WILL SWING ACROSS UPSTATE
NY AND NEW ENGLAND. THE BEST CHC OF ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS DUE TO THE
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. H500 TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -15C TO -18C FROM ALY
NORTH AND WEST. THE H500 HEIGHTS ARE ABOUT 2-3 STD DEVS BELOW
NORMAL BASED ON THE LATEST GEFS FOR WED. H850 TEMPS WILL BE 1-2
STD DEVS BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS ON WED WILL BE IN THE M60S TO L70S
OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS...WITH A FEW 80F
READINGS NEAR KPOU. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR COOL NIGHT FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF AUG...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE U40S TO M50S OVER
THE FCST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RETURN TO MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THIS
PERIOD...AND IS EXPECTED TO LAST.  HOWEVER...WEAK DISTURBANCES
INTERMINGLED WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MEAN RATHER SMALL CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS ON SOME DAYS...PARTICULARLY THE MORE SOUTHERN ZONES...
WHICH WILL BE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO A QUASI-STATIONARY MID-ATLANTIC
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  IF ANYTHING...THE LATTER PORTION OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO HAVE THE DRIEST CONDITIONS...GOOD NEWS FOR
WEEKENDERS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S...AND LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE 50S WILL BE EXTREMELY COMMON...WITH LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY VARIATION.
THE NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS AT ALBANY...RESPECTIVELY...ARE IN THE
LOWER 80S AND LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PRESS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA
WITH A SHORT WAVE ROTATING ABOUT THE BASE ON THE CLOSED
LOW CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY. HAVE ADDRESSED THREAT FOR CONVECTION AT TAF
SITES...KALB...KPSF AND KPOU...WITH VCSH.

AS CLOUD COVER DECREASES MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
DUE TO FOG SINCE THE WINDS ARE CALM AND THE GROUND DAMP/WET.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE COAST DURING THE
DAY TUESDAY AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TRIGGERING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE ADDRESSED THIS THREAT
WITH PROB30 GROUPS IN ALL TAFS. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH
ANY CONVECTION WITH BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE.

CALM WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AFTER SUNRISE...THEN SHIFT
MORE TO THE WEST BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. THE WINDS SHOULD BECOME
GUSTY WITH GUSTS INTO THE TEENS FOR A PERIOD TUESDAY BY LATE
MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT-THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU NIGHT-FRI NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTAIN SOME HAIL GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.

AN UPPER LEVEL COULD GENERATE AN ADDITIONAL SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION ON TUESDAY.

OTHERWISE LOOK FOR A REDUCTION IN HEAT AND HUMIDITY...ESPECIALLY
ON WEDNESDAY. WITH A COLD POOL ALOFT AN ADDITIONAL  SHOWER IS
REMOTELY POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY BUT OTHERWISE IT IS DRY.

THE RH VALUES INCREASE TO 75 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH
VALUES WILL LOWER TO 35 TO 55 PERCENT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

SOUTH WIND WILL BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT. THE WIND WILL BECOME
WEST TO SOUTHWEST 5 TO 15 MPH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEST TO
NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH ON WEDNESDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR A WETTING RAIN WILL BE FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING...SOME OF
WHICH HAVE CONTAINED VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS (LOCALIZED TWO INCH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS). HOWEVER...RIVER BASIN AVERAGES WILL BE CLOSER
TO A QUARTER INCH. OTHER THAN THE USUAL LOCALIZED PONDING OF
WATER...THERE SHOULD NOT BE MUCH IF ANY RESPONSE ON ANY OF THE
SIGNIFICANT CREEKS OR RIVERS ACROSS THE REGION.

MORE WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. LITTLE OR NO HYDRO
PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE AT THIS TIME.

MAINLY DRY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

THEN...A MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN IS POSSIBLE FOR FRIDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV/WASULA
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/BGM/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 040609
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
209 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT KEEPING THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
STORMS IN THE FORECAST MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE COAST DURING THE
DAY TUESDAY AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TRIGGERING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PRESS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA
WITH A SHORT WAVE ROTATING ABOUT THE BASE ON THE CLOSED
LOW CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO TEMPERATURES BASED ON
OBSERVATIONAL DATA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR WRN NEW ENGLAND BY
DAYBREAK. THE SFC DEWPT BOUNDARY WILL STILL BE PROGRESSING EAST
ACROSS ERN NY. THE NAM IS ADVERTISING ALOT OF INSTABILITY FOR TUE
WITH A DEEPLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THE GFS HAS LESS AGAIN...BUT
THERE IS A SMALL AREA OF HIGH INSTABILITY FROM THE THE MASS PIKE
SOUTH AND EAST INTO NW CT. SPC DOES HAVE LITCHFIELD CTY CLIPPED BY
THE MARGINAL RISK. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE AROUND 6.5C/KM
WITH ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR SOME STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL /NO ENHANCED WORDING YET/...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST. LOW- LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING
DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE PM. DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS OFF THE
ERN CATSKILLS/ERN DACKS MAY ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO GET INTO THE MID
AND U80S IN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION. EXPECT M70S TO
L80S IN MOST OTHER LOCATIONS...EXCEPT OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN
GREENS WHERE SOME U60S TO L70S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE COLD ADVECTION
REGIME...AS H850 TEMPS LOWER TO +10C TO +16C FROM NW TO SE OVER
THE FCST AREA BY THE LATE PM. A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SUNSET.

TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL HEATING THE SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY. THE ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS MAY LINGER THE LONGEST OVER THE SRN DACKS. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60F WITH SOME U40S TO L50S
OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN GREENS. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE QUITE
COMFORTABLE.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE FCST AREA WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER S-CNTRL QUEBEC. IN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW ANOTHER PIECE OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY WILL SWING ACROSS UPSTATE
NY AND NEW ENGLAND. THE BEST CHC OF ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS DUE TO THE
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. H500 TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -15C TO -18C FROM ALY
NORTH AND WEST. THE H500 HEIGHTS ARE ABOUT 2-3 STD DEVS BELOW
NORMAL BASED ON THE LATEST GEFS FOR WED. H850 TEMPS WILL BE 1-2
STD DEVS BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS ON WED WILL BE IN THE M60S TO L70S
OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS...WITH A FEW 80F
READINGS NEAR KPOU. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR COOL NIGHT FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF AUG...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE U40S TO M50S OVER
THE FCST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RETURN TO MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THIS
PERIOD...AND IS EXPECTED TO LAST.  HOWEVER...WEAK DISTURBANCES
INTERMINGLED WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MEAN RATHER SMALL CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS ON SOME DAYS...PARTICULARLY THE MORE SOUTHERN ZONES...
WHICH WILL BE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO A QUASI-STATIONARY MID-ATLANTIC
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  IF ANYTHING...THE LATTER PORTION OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO HAVE THE DRIEST CONDITIONS...GOOD NEWS FOR
WEEKENDERS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S...AND LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE 50S WILL BE EXTREMELY COMMON...WITH LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY VARIATION.
THE NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS AT ALBANY...RESPECTIVELY...ARE IN THE
LOWER 80S AND LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PRESS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA
WITH A SHORT WAVE ROTATING ABOUT THE BASE ON THE CLOSED
LOW CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY. HAVE ADDRESSED THREAT FOR CONVECTION AT TAF
SITES...KALB...KPSF AND KPOU...WITH VCSH.

AS CLOUD COVER DECREASES MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
DUE TO FOG SINCE THE WINDS ARE CALM AND THE GROUND DAMP/WET.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE COAST DURING THE
DAY TUESDAY AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TRIGGERING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE ADDRESSED THIS THREAT
WITH PROB30 GROUPS IN ALL TAFS. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH
ANY CONVECTION WITH BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE.

CALM WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AFTER SUNRISE...THEN SHIFT
MORE TO THE WEST BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. THE WINDS SHOULD BECOME
GUSTY WITH GUSTS INTO THE TEENS FOR A PERIOD TUESDAY BY LATE
MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT-THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU NIGHT-FRI NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTAIN SOME HAIL GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.

AN UPPER LEVEL COULD GENERATE AN ADDITIONAL SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION ON TUESDAY.

OTHERWISE LOOK FOR A REDUCTION IN HEAT AND HUMIDITY...ESPECIALLY
ON WEDNESDAY. WITH A COLD POOL ALOFT AN ADDITIONAL  SHOWER IS
REMOTELY POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY BUT OTHERWISE IT IS DRY.

THE RH VALUES INCREASE TO 75 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH
VALUES WILL LOWER TO 35 TO 55 PERCENT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

SOUTH WIND WILL BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT. THE WIND WILL BECOME
WEST TO SOUTHWEST 5 TO 15 MPH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEST TO
NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH ON WEDNESDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR A WETTING RAIN WILL BE FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING...SOME OF
WHICH HAVE CONTAINED VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS (LOCALIZED TWO INCH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS). HOWEVER...RIVER BASIN AVERAGES WILL BE CLOSER
TO A QUARTER INCH. OTHER THAN THE USUAL LOCALIZED PONDING OF
WATER...THERE SHOULD NOT BE MUCH IF ANY RESPONSE ON ANY OF THE
SIGNIFICANT CREEKS OR RIVERS ACROSS THE REGION.

MORE WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. LITTLE OR NO HYDRO
PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE AT THIS TIME.

MAINLY DRY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

THEN...A MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN IS POSSIBLE FOR FRIDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV/WASULA
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/BGM/WASULA



000
FXUS61 KALY 040609
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
209 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT KEEPING THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
STORMS IN THE FORECAST MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE COAST DURING THE
DAY TUESDAY AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TRIGGERING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PRESS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA
WITH A SHORT WAVE ROTATING ABOUT THE BASE ON THE CLOSED
LOW CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO TEMPERATURES BASED ON
OBSERVATIONAL DATA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR WRN NEW ENGLAND BY
DAYBREAK. THE SFC DEWPT BOUNDARY WILL STILL BE PROGRESSING EAST
ACROSS ERN NY. THE NAM IS ADVERTISING ALOT OF INSTABILITY FOR TUE
WITH A DEEPLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THE GFS HAS LESS AGAIN...BUT
THERE IS A SMALL AREA OF HIGH INSTABILITY FROM THE THE MASS PIKE
SOUTH AND EAST INTO NW CT. SPC DOES HAVE LITCHFIELD CTY CLIPPED BY
THE MARGINAL RISK. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE AROUND 6.5C/KM
WITH ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR SOME STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL /NO ENHANCED WORDING YET/...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST. LOW- LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING
DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE PM. DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS OFF THE
ERN CATSKILLS/ERN DACKS MAY ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO GET INTO THE MID
AND U80S IN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION. EXPECT M70S TO
L80S IN MOST OTHER LOCATIONS...EXCEPT OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN
GREENS WHERE SOME U60S TO L70S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE COLD ADVECTION
REGIME...AS H850 TEMPS LOWER TO +10C TO +16C FROM NW TO SE OVER
THE FCST AREA BY THE LATE PM. A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SUNSET.

TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL HEATING THE SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY. THE ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS MAY LINGER THE LONGEST OVER THE SRN DACKS. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60F WITH SOME U40S TO L50S
OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN GREENS. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE QUITE
COMFORTABLE.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE FCST AREA WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER S-CNTRL QUEBEC. IN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW ANOTHER PIECE OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY WILL SWING ACROSS UPSTATE
NY AND NEW ENGLAND. THE BEST CHC OF ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS DUE TO THE
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. H500 TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -15C TO -18C FROM ALY
NORTH AND WEST. THE H500 HEIGHTS ARE ABOUT 2-3 STD DEVS BELOW
NORMAL BASED ON THE LATEST GEFS FOR WED. H850 TEMPS WILL BE 1-2
STD DEVS BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS ON WED WILL BE IN THE M60S TO L70S
OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS...WITH A FEW 80F
READINGS NEAR KPOU. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR COOL NIGHT FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF AUG...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE U40S TO M50S OVER
THE FCST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RETURN TO MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THIS
PERIOD...AND IS EXPECTED TO LAST.  HOWEVER...WEAK DISTURBANCES
INTERMINGLED WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MEAN RATHER SMALL CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS ON SOME DAYS...PARTICULARLY THE MORE SOUTHERN ZONES...
WHICH WILL BE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO A QUASI-STATIONARY MID-ATLANTIC
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  IF ANYTHING...THE LATTER PORTION OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO HAVE THE DRIEST CONDITIONS...GOOD NEWS FOR
WEEKENDERS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S...AND LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE 50S WILL BE EXTREMELY COMMON...WITH LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY VARIATION.
THE NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS AT ALBANY...RESPECTIVELY...ARE IN THE
LOWER 80S AND LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PRESS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA
WITH A SHORT WAVE ROTATING ABOUT THE BASE ON THE CLOSED
LOW CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY. HAVE ADDRESSED THREAT FOR CONVECTION AT TAF
SITES...KALB...KPSF AND KPOU...WITH VCSH.

AS CLOUD COVER DECREASES MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
DUE TO FOG SINCE THE WINDS ARE CALM AND THE GROUND DAMP/WET.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE COAST DURING THE
DAY TUESDAY AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TRIGGERING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE ADDRESSED THIS THREAT
WITH PROB30 GROUPS IN ALL TAFS. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH
ANY CONVECTION WITH BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE.

CALM WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AFTER SUNRISE...THEN SHIFT
MORE TO THE WEST BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. THE WINDS SHOULD BECOME
GUSTY WITH GUSTS INTO THE TEENS FOR A PERIOD TUESDAY BY LATE
MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT-THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU NIGHT-FRI NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTAIN SOME HAIL GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.

AN UPPER LEVEL COULD GENERATE AN ADDITIONAL SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION ON TUESDAY.

OTHERWISE LOOK FOR A REDUCTION IN HEAT AND HUMIDITY...ESPECIALLY
ON WEDNESDAY. WITH A COLD POOL ALOFT AN ADDITIONAL  SHOWER IS
REMOTELY POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY BUT OTHERWISE IT IS DRY.

THE RH VALUES INCREASE TO 75 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH
VALUES WILL LOWER TO 35 TO 55 PERCENT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

SOUTH WIND WILL BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT. THE WIND WILL BECOME
WEST TO SOUTHWEST 5 TO 15 MPH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEST TO
NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH ON WEDNESDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR A WETTING RAIN WILL BE FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING...SOME OF
WHICH HAVE CONTAINED VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS (LOCALIZED TWO INCH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS). HOWEVER...RIVER BASIN AVERAGES WILL BE CLOSER
TO A QUARTER INCH. OTHER THAN THE USUAL LOCALIZED PONDING OF
WATER...THERE SHOULD NOT BE MUCH IF ANY RESPONSE ON ANY OF THE
SIGNIFICANT CREEKS OR RIVERS ACROSS THE REGION.

MORE WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. LITTLE OR NO HYDRO
PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE AT THIS TIME.

MAINLY DRY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

THEN...A MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN IS POSSIBLE FOR FRIDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV/WASULA
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/BGM/WASULA



000
FXUS61 KOKX 040601
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
201 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH OVERNIGHT THEN STALL
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 AM THIS MORNING/...
IT APPEARS TO ME LIKE WE HAVE TWO FRONTS...BOTH RATHER DIFFUSE.

THE FIRST FRONT IS FORCING CONVECTION AHEAD OF IT. THIS CONVECTION
WILL LIKELY REACH THE NY METRO BEFORE SUNRISE. HAVE RAISED POPS
TO LIKELY THERE. THE QUESTION IS WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE ACTIVITY
BEHIND THE INITIAL CLUSTER AND WILL THE INITIAL CLUSTER SURVIVE
INTO CT?

RAP AND HRRR DO NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS DEVELOPING PCPN.
NARRE-TL SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER COMPOSITE OF THE TREND THAT
SUGGESTS THE ACTIVITY CONTINUES AND INCREASES AS IT MOVES INTO CT
FOR THE EARLY MORNING RUSH. KEEPING THE SCT COVERAGE FOR THIS
BETWEEN 6 AND 9 AM LOCAL.

IT LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY BEHIND THE EASTERN PA CLUSTER
WILL WEAKEN - BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING REMAINS LOW.

EXPECT ADDITIONAL REVISIONS AS THE CONVECTION EVOLVE EARLY THIS
MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /9 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. VERY LITTLE APPRECIABLE
DIFFERENCE WILL BE FELT WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL
AND SIMILAR HUMIDITY AS MONDAY. LATE TONIGHT THE UPPER TROUGH
BUILDS FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST...FORCING THE ATTENDANT SURFACE
FRONT FARTHER OFFSHORE WITH LOWER DEW POINTS ADVECTING INTO THE
REGION. A SUBSEQUENT DECREASE IN HUMIDITY WILL BE FELT AS THIS
OCCURS.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE
OCEAN BEACHES TODAY. A RIP CURRENT STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE OFFSHORE WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER
THE AREA INTO THURSDAY.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEPARTS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH SURFACE LOW OVER THE MID-
WEST TREKKING EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AFFECTING THE AREA MAINLY
FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THERE
IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE IT TRACKS AND THEREFORE HOW MUCH RAIN
WE DO RECEIVE. HOWEVER...IT DOES APPEAR MORE CERTAIN THAT A
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN EVENT IS IN STORE FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.

ISENTROPIC LIFT OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW NOTED IN BOTH THE
12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF...MAINLY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...SO THINKING
THIS WILL BE MORE STRATIFORM RAIN. SURFACE LOW CONTINUES ITS
APPROACH FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS DIFFER IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW.
THE 12Z ECMWF AND 12Z GFS AGREE WITH THE LOW BEING OVER THE NORTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC STATES BY 06Z SATURDAY. THEREAFTER...MODELS DIFFER
QUITE A BIT IN THEIR SOLUTIONS. 12Z ECMWF TREKS THE LOW NORTHEAST IN
SIDE THE 40/70 BENCHMARK THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY WHILE IT SLOWLY
STRENGTHENS WHILE THE GFS WEAKENS THE LOW OVER THE OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OFFSHORE AND WEAKER WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG
IT...WHILE THE 12Z CANADIAN IS AN OUTLIER BEING MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN
THE OTHER MODELS. THEREFORE...SIDED MORE ALONG THE LINES OF THE GFS
AND ECMWF AND KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY

LOW PRESSURE PUSHES AWAY FROM THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS.

OUTSIDE OF FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SEASONABLE FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. RAIN AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN ON FRIDAY...NOT
MAKING IT OUT OF THE 70S REGION-WIDE. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES MAY
PROVE TO BE A BIT LOWER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST.

ARE WATCHING AREAS OF CONVECTION OFF TO THE WEST. THESE STORMS
SHOULD APPROACH THE NYC METRO AROUND 09Z. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
TEMPOS IN TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. HAVE LEFT OUT OF TERMINALS EAST OF
NYC WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE OF ANY THUNDER REACHING THOSE TERMINALS.
AMENDMENTS ARE LIKELY THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR CONVECTION
TIMING.

EXPECT S-SW WINDS OF 5-10 KT AT KNYC TERMINALS AND 5 KT OR LESS
INLAND OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. SOME IFR CIGS
ARE LIKELY FROM KISP AND POINTS EAST FOR LOW STRATUS.

AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE...WINDS SHIFT TO THE W-SW AND INCREASE TO
8-12 KT. GRADIENT TIGHTENS THIS AFTERNOON. LOCAL SEA BREEZES
POSSIBLE AT COASTAL TERMINALS.

SCT SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WED THROUGH SAT...
.TUE NIGHT...SLGT CHC FOR TSTMS MAINLY CSTL TERMINALS IN THE
EVENING. BECOMING VFR OVERNIGHT. SW FLOW BECOMING NW OVERNIGHT.
.WED-THU...VFR. GENERALLY W FLOW.
.FRI...MVFR OR LOWER IN RAIN. WINDS BECOMING NE.
.SAT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN RAIN. NE WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECAST ON TRACK...NO UPDATES AT THIS TIME.

WINDS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL REMAIN STRONG INTO LATE TONIGHT
BEFORE LIGHTENING WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT.

OCEAN SEAS BUILD DUE TO THE INCREASE IN THESE WINDS. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ON THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY EVENING.

OCEAN SEAS WILL BE SUBSIDING TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT 5 FT SEAS MAY
LINGER ON THE EASTERN OCEAN UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY WITH SUB SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MAY PASS OVER
THE WATERS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. OCCASIONAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY WITH SUB SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LOW PRESSURE MAY PASS OVER OR NEAR THE WATERS
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
OCCASIONAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY ON
THE OCEAN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A TENTH TO A QUARTER INCH OF BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL THIS MORNING.
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY HEAVIER THUNDERSTORMS.

A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN WHERE AND WHEN THE
HEAVIEST OF THE RAIN WILL FALL. ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD
LIMIT FLOODING POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 6 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR NYZ075-080-081-178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-
     353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MD/JP
NEAR TERM...MET/TONGUE
SHORT TERM...MD
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...BC/MPS
MARINE...MET
HYDROLOGY...MD/JP


  [top]

000
FXUS61 KBOX 040540
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
140 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOWARDS TUESDAY
MORNING...CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SOME
OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. DRY...WARM AND LESS
HUMID WEATHER ARRIVES WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY. A
PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE TIMING OF POTENTIAL WET WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...
WE CONTINUE TO WATCH BULK OF ACTIVE CONVECTION ROLL NW OF THE
REGION ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF WEAK
SHORTWAVES AND A PRE-FRONTAL TROF WHICH CONTINUES TO DIMINISH. THE
NEXT ROUND TO WATCH WILL BE THE DEVELOPING CONVECTION COLOCATED
WITH A SECONDARY TROF ACROSS PA AND SE NY. WITH THE MODIFIED EML
SETTLING FURTHER E AND INCREASING MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN
/SOMETHING WE WERE LACKING MOST OF THE DAY/...PLUS A SLIGHT UP-
TICK IN SHEAR WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS DEVELOPMENT AS IT MOVES E
INTO NY/SNE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SOME MESOSCALE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE TYPICAL RIGHT-TURN AS THE CONVECTION DIVES
S TOWARD BETTER INSTABILITY WHILE OTHERS LEAVE THE STEERING FLOW
IN CONTROL...TAKING IT ACROSS CT/SE MASS. HAVE INCREASED POPS IN
THIS AREA PRIMARILY WHILE LOWERING THEM SOMEWHAT ELSEWHERE. IT
WILL BE INTERESTING TO OBSERVE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOUR
CONVECTION SURVIVES WITH LITTLE SFC BASED SUPPORT.
OTHERWISE...MILD...MIN TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...

POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE WEATHER OUTCOMES INTO SE NEW ENGLAND TOWARDS
TUESDAY MORNING. FORECAST GUIDANCE CONSENSUS NOTES AN INSTABILITY
BURST ELEVATED AND MAINTAINED BY A S/SW WARM-MOIST PLUME OF HIGHER
THETA-E AIR ABOVE A SUBSEQUENT INVERSION. PWATS OF 1.50-1.75 INCHES.
ACTIVITY LOOKS TO ORIGINATE ALONG THE NOSE OF A H925-85 JET WITHIN A
H85-7 ENVIRONMENT OF 6-7C/KM LAPSE RATES. YET THERE IS A LACK OF
DEEP-LAYER FORCING AS THE BETTER AREA OF PVA / MID-LEVEL TROUGH /
SURFACE COLD FRONT REMAIN TO THE W.

THINKING IS THAT WE MAY SEE A WIDESPREAD AREA OF ACTIVITY OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS COLLOCATED WITH THE CONVERGENT LOW-LEVEL PLUME.
UNCERTAINTY IF ANY THUNDERSTORMS BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. HEAVY RAIN
LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT ALONG WITH LIGHTNING. THINKING LOW RISK
SEVERE AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE STORMS TO BECOME STRONG. WILL
SEE COLLOCATED UNI-DIRECTIONAL SW-NE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR EXCEEDING 40
KTS AND FREEZING LEVELS OF AROUND 11 KFT. SOME EVIDENCE OF TURNING
WITHIN THE 0-1/0-3 KM LAYER. SREF DOES DENOTE DECENT PROBABILITIES
OF INSTABILITY EXCEEDING 2K J/KG IN ADDITION TO THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHEAR AND TURNING ENVIRONMENT. THOUGH SREF PROBS NOT SO MUCH HELPFUL
WITH RESPECT TO PRECIP ACCUMULATIONS...THUS CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT
TO POSSIBLE FLOODING IS LOW DESPITE THE ANTICIPATED OUTCOMES THAT
WERE DISCUSSED ABOVE. WILL AVOID ENHANCED WORDING WITH THE FORECAST
FOR THE TIME BEING.

SHOULD BETTER FORCING AND VENTING ALOFT WITH THE H3 JET SHIFT E...
THERE WOULD BE GREATER IMPETUS UPON THE ENVIRONMENT TO GENERATE
GREATER AND LIKELY STRONGER CONVECTIVE WEATHER. INTERESTING AS TO
WHETHER CONVECTIVE REMNANTS W FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY SHIFT E AND
ACT AS A CRUX OF FORCING VIA LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. OVERALL
INDIVIDUAL MODELS CONTINUE TO WOBBLE AND THERE IS JUST AN UNDERLYING
LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY OTHER THAN THE FOCUS BEING ON SE NEW ENGLAND.
IT MAY BE QUIET THROUGHOUT AS THE PRESENT DRY SUBSIDING WEDGE OF
AIR ACROSS THE REGION MAINTAINS.

OTHERWISE SW-FLOW CONTINUES OVERNIGHT USHERING HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR
ACROSS INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND. SHOULD REMAIN BREEZY ALONG THE S/SE-
COAST. INCREASING CLOUD COVER SHOULD YIELD MILD LOW TEMPERATURES
AROUND THE MID- TO UPPER-60S AND MAY SUBSEQUENTLY LIMIT PATCHY DENSE
FOG TO JUST ACROSS S/SE NEW ENGLAND IN HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TUESDAY...

A COMBINATION OF RISING HEIGHTS WITHIN THE MID-LEVELS COMBINED WITH
DRIER AIR ALOFT COULD SUBDUE THE POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT.
BENEATH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT THRU WHICH ADDITIONAL MID-LEVEL IMPULSES
AND ACCOMPANYING JET-STREAKS RESIDE...THE OVERALL QUESTION IS AS TO
WHETHER A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CAN BECOME THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. SWEEPING THROUGH AN ENVIRONMENT OF ROBUST THETA-E
AIR AND INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF 2K J/KG IN WHICH LAPSE RATES ARE
STEEP ESPECIALLY H85-7 AND SHEAR PROFILES ARE MODERATE TO STRONG TO
50 KTS WITH SLIGHT TURNING WITHIN THE 0-1/0-3 KM PROFILE...THERE
APPEARS TO BE MECHANISMS FOR FORCING...BUT SHOULD MID-LEVEL RIDGING
PROCEED...THIS SEEMS TO SQUASH THE POSSIBILITY FOR CONVECTION. THERE
IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY THAT SHOULD ACTIVITY DEVELOP TOWARDS MORNING
OVER SE NEW ENGLAND AS NOTED EARLIER IT COULD SUBDUE THE ENVIRONMENT
FROM BECOMING CONVECTIVE /I.E. CLOUD COVER/. A VERY COMPLICATED
FORECAST.

BUT STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOMETHING POPPING
ACROSS THE INTERIOR. AM SOMEWHAT CONCERNED NOTING THE CIPS ANALOG
GUIDANCE IN WHERE SEVERAL OF THE ANALOGS WITNESSED SUBSTANTIAL WIND
AND HAIL IMPACTS OVER N- AND W-PORTIONS OF S NEW ENGLAND. THE STRONG
TO SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS SEEMINGLY THERE THOUGH THERE IS SOME
LEVEL OF DOUBT. EVEN SPC WILL WAIT ON HOW THE ENVIRONMENT DEVELOPS
WITH RESPECT TO THEIR CONVECTIVE WEATHER OUTLOOKS...WHETHER THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL DESTABILIZE. CAN NOT RULE IT OUT COMPLETELY AND
WILL PREPARE FOR THE POTENTIAL ACCORDINGLY. FOCUS OF A HEAVY RAIN
THREAT ALONG WITH POTENTIAL HAIL AND STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND
POSSIBILITIES. CAN NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A TORNADO. BUT
NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME TO GO WITH ENHANCED WORDING IN
THE FORECAST.

WHILE FORECAST GUIDANCE SEEMS MIXED WITH AN UNCERTAIN EVOLUTION OF
SYNOPTICS...THERE IS GREATER CONFIDENCE OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY AROUND THE VICINITY OF SE NEW ENGLAND AND ADJACENT WATERS
WHERE THE SW-NE PLUME OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR RESIDES AS WELL AS BOTH
A STRONGER AND CONVERGENT SW-NE H925-85 WIND PROFILE. WOULD EXPECT A
CONTINUATION BEGINNING IN THE MORNING AS OUTLINED IN THE EARLIER
DISCUSSION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH
ALSO COULD BE STRONG AND POSSIBLY SEVERE.

OVERALL...A MILD AND MUGGY DAY WITH HIGHS INTO THE MID- TO UPPER-80S
AS DEWPOINTS RANGE AROUND THE MID- TO UPPER-60S.

TUESDAY NIGHT...

FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THE HIGHER THETA-E / INSTABILITY OUT TO SEA
INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SO ANTICIPATING A DRYING TREND. W-FLOW
PROCEEDING USHERING LOWER DEWPOINT AIR ACROSS THE INTERIOR. AS
CONDITIONS GRADUALLY CLEAR...TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE LOW- TO MID-
60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE AROUND FRIDAY
* TEMPERATURES TRENDING BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD

OVERALL...THE MODELS HAVE RATHER POOR AGREEMENT ON THE GENERAL
PATTERN AND TIMING THROUGH THE LONG TERM. IN SOME TIME PERIODS IT
SEEMS THAT THE GFS MAY JUST BE SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF. IN OTHERS...
THEY ARE JUST COMPLETELY DIFFERENT. THE ENSEMBLES ARE NOT MUCH
HELP IN THAT THE ECMWF ENSEMBLES LOOK VERY SIMILAR TO THE OPERATIONAL
MODEL AND THE GEFS IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE GFS. BASICALLY HAVE TWO
FAIRLY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM. HOWEVER...
GENERAL TRENDS ARE SIMILAR. LOOKING AT A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK.

WEDNESDAY...LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL. DESPITE THE POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES AS A
SHORTWAVE PUSHES INTO THE REGION...EXPECT MUCH OF THE DAY AND MUCH
OF THE AREA TO REMAIN DRY.

THURSDAY...MUCH OF THE DAY LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE AREA. THIS IS ONE OF THOSE TIMES THE TIMING IS
OFF BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS. THE ECMWF IS QUICK TO MOVE THE
HIGH PRESSURE OUT OF THE REGION...PUSHED BY LOW PRESSURE MOVING
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE GFS KEEPS THAT
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE LOW PRESSURE IN
THE GREAT LAKES.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THIS LOOKS TO BE THE MOST
UNSETTLED TIME WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
THEN POSSIBLY UP THE EAST COAST OVER THE 40/70 BENCHMARK SOUTHEAST
OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE ECMWF IS THE MOST BULLISH WITH THIS...
TRACKING THE LOW DIRECTLY OVER THE BENCHMARK AND BRINGING AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN TO MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE GFS
DEVELOPS SOME SORT OF BOUNDARY ALONG WHICH SEVERAL AREAS OF LOW
PRESSURE TRAVEL...BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN TO THE REGION. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE A GIVEN WITH LOWERING HEIGHTS/TEMPS ALOFT
AND MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES FOR MUCH OF THIS TIME.
WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE TEMPS TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S ON FRIDAY.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MUCH OF THIS FORECAST WILL DEPEND ON HOW FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY SHAKE OUT...BUT IN GENERAL THE WEATHER LOOKS DRIER AND
QUIETER WITH REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

THROUGH 12Z...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR...WILL HAVE TO WATCH SOME LEFTOVER SHRA/TSTMS MOVING
THROUGH NY/PA WHICH MAY IMPACT MAINLY CT DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
DEPENDING ON SUNSHINE...EXPECT SOME THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP MID DAY AND CONTINUE...FROM W-E INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE...WITH STRONG WINDS AND
HAIL...AS WELL AS BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
AFTER STORMS/RAIN SWEEPS OFFSHORE LATE THIS EVENING...EXPECT
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR WHICH WILL LINGER INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON
WED. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS THEN POSSIBLE MAINLY N
OF THE MASS PIKE ON WED...BUT NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS TUE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
OF ANY AFTERNOON STORMS.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
OF ANY AFTERNOON STORMS.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. LOW
PROBABILITY OF A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS NW MA WEDNESDAY. ANY
STORMS THAT DEVELOP MAY HAVE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING...HIGHER
CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS.  MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN WIDESPREAD RAIN LIKELY
SOMETIME DURING THIS PERIOD.  VFR BEFORE AND AFTER PERIOD OF RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SW-WINDS CONTINUE WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS...STRONGER OVER THE S-
WATERS AT 25 KTS. WAVES BUILDING TO 5 FEET. PERHAPS SOME PATCHY
FOG ISSUES. INCREASING AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDER- STORMS TOWARDS MORNING. STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SW-WINDS WITH GUSTS 20-25 KTS. WAVES AT 5-6 FEET. CONTINUED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH SOME OF THOSE STORMS BEING
STRONG TO SEVERE.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SW-WINDS BACKING W THROUGH THE NIGHT. GUSTS SUBSIDING. WAVES AT
5-6 FEET. SHOWER / THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONCLUDE W TO E TOWARDS
MORNING.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW 5 FEET EXPECTED. RAIN IS LIKELY
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...LIMITING VISIBILITIES AT TIMES.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EASTERLY WINDS
AND SEAS INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE OUTER WATERS.
RAIN IS LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...LIMITING VISIBILITIES
AT TIMES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ230>234-236-250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...DOODY/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...DOODY/RLG
MARINE...RLG/SIPPRELL




000
FXUS61 KBOX 040540
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
140 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOWARDS TUESDAY
MORNING...CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SOME
OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. DRY...WARM AND LESS
HUMID WEATHER ARRIVES WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY. A
PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE TIMING OF POTENTIAL WET WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...
WE CONTINUE TO WATCH BULK OF ACTIVE CONVECTION ROLL NW OF THE
REGION ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF WEAK
SHORTWAVES AND A PRE-FRONTAL TROF WHICH CONTINUES TO DIMINISH. THE
NEXT ROUND TO WATCH WILL BE THE DEVELOPING CONVECTION COLOCATED
WITH A SECONDARY TROF ACROSS PA AND SE NY. WITH THE MODIFIED EML
SETTLING FURTHER E AND INCREASING MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN
/SOMETHING WE WERE LACKING MOST OF THE DAY/...PLUS A SLIGHT UP-
TICK IN SHEAR WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS DEVELOPMENT AS IT MOVES E
INTO NY/SNE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SOME MESOSCALE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE TYPICAL RIGHT-TURN AS THE CONVECTION DIVES
S TOWARD BETTER INSTABILITY WHILE OTHERS LEAVE THE STEERING FLOW
IN CONTROL...TAKING IT ACROSS CT/SE MASS. HAVE INCREASED POPS IN
THIS AREA PRIMARILY WHILE LOWERING THEM SOMEWHAT ELSEWHERE. IT
WILL BE INTERESTING TO OBSERVE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOUR
CONVECTION SURVIVES WITH LITTLE SFC BASED SUPPORT.
OTHERWISE...MILD...MIN TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...

POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE WEATHER OUTCOMES INTO SE NEW ENGLAND TOWARDS
TUESDAY MORNING. FORECAST GUIDANCE CONSENSUS NOTES AN INSTABILITY
BURST ELEVATED AND MAINTAINED BY A S/SW WARM-MOIST PLUME OF HIGHER
THETA-E AIR ABOVE A SUBSEQUENT INVERSION. PWATS OF 1.50-1.75 INCHES.
ACTIVITY LOOKS TO ORIGINATE ALONG THE NOSE OF A H925-85 JET WITHIN A
H85-7 ENVIRONMENT OF 6-7C/KM LAPSE RATES. YET THERE IS A LACK OF
DEEP-LAYER FORCING AS THE BETTER AREA OF PVA / MID-LEVEL TROUGH /
SURFACE COLD FRONT REMAIN TO THE W.

THINKING IS THAT WE MAY SEE A WIDESPREAD AREA OF ACTIVITY OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS COLLOCATED WITH THE CONVERGENT LOW-LEVEL PLUME.
UNCERTAINTY IF ANY THUNDERSTORMS BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. HEAVY RAIN
LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT ALONG WITH LIGHTNING. THINKING LOW RISK
SEVERE AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE STORMS TO BECOME STRONG. WILL
SEE COLLOCATED UNI-DIRECTIONAL SW-NE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR EXCEEDING 40
KTS AND FREEZING LEVELS OF AROUND 11 KFT. SOME EVIDENCE OF TURNING
WITHIN THE 0-1/0-3 KM LAYER. SREF DOES DENOTE DECENT PROBABILITIES
OF INSTABILITY EXCEEDING 2K J/KG IN ADDITION TO THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHEAR AND TURNING ENVIRONMENT. THOUGH SREF PROBS NOT SO MUCH HELPFUL
WITH RESPECT TO PRECIP ACCUMULATIONS...THUS CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT
TO POSSIBLE FLOODING IS LOW DESPITE THE ANTICIPATED OUTCOMES THAT
WERE DISCUSSED ABOVE. WILL AVOID ENHANCED WORDING WITH THE FORECAST
FOR THE TIME BEING.

SHOULD BETTER FORCING AND VENTING ALOFT WITH THE H3 JET SHIFT E...
THERE WOULD BE GREATER IMPETUS UPON THE ENVIRONMENT TO GENERATE
GREATER AND LIKELY STRONGER CONVECTIVE WEATHER. INTERESTING AS TO
WHETHER CONVECTIVE REMNANTS W FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY SHIFT E AND
ACT AS A CRUX OF FORCING VIA LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. OVERALL
INDIVIDUAL MODELS CONTINUE TO WOBBLE AND THERE IS JUST AN UNDERLYING
LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY OTHER THAN THE FOCUS BEING ON SE NEW ENGLAND.
IT MAY BE QUIET THROUGHOUT AS THE PRESENT DRY SUBSIDING WEDGE OF
AIR ACROSS THE REGION MAINTAINS.

OTHERWISE SW-FLOW CONTINUES OVERNIGHT USHERING HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR
ACROSS INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND. SHOULD REMAIN BREEZY ALONG THE S/SE-
COAST. INCREASING CLOUD COVER SHOULD YIELD MILD LOW TEMPERATURES
AROUND THE MID- TO UPPER-60S AND MAY SUBSEQUENTLY LIMIT PATCHY DENSE
FOG TO JUST ACROSS S/SE NEW ENGLAND IN HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TUESDAY...

A COMBINATION OF RISING HEIGHTS WITHIN THE MID-LEVELS COMBINED WITH
DRIER AIR ALOFT COULD SUBDUE THE POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT.
BENEATH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT THRU WHICH ADDITIONAL MID-LEVEL IMPULSES
AND ACCOMPANYING JET-STREAKS RESIDE...THE OVERALL QUESTION IS AS TO
WHETHER A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CAN BECOME THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. SWEEPING THROUGH AN ENVIRONMENT OF ROBUST THETA-E
AIR AND INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF 2K J/KG IN WHICH LAPSE RATES ARE
STEEP ESPECIALLY H85-7 AND SHEAR PROFILES ARE MODERATE TO STRONG TO
50 KTS WITH SLIGHT TURNING WITHIN THE 0-1/0-3 KM PROFILE...THERE
APPEARS TO BE MECHANISMS FOR FORCING...BUT SHOULD MID-LEVEL RIDGING
PROCEED...THIS SEEMS TO SQUASH THE POSSIBILITY FOR CONVECTION. THERE
IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY THAT SHOULD ACTIVITY DEVELOP TOWARDS MORNING
OVER SE NEW ENGLAND AS NOTED EARLIER IT COULD SUBDUE THE ENVIRONMENT
FROM BECOMING CONVECTIVE /I.E. CLOUD COVER/. A VERY COMPLICATED
FORECAST.

BUT STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOMETHING POPPING
ACROSS THE INTERIOR. AM SOMEWHAT CONCERNED NOTING THE CIPS ANALOG
GUIDANCE IN WHERE SEVERAL OF THE ANALOGS WITNESSED SUBSTANTIAL WIND
AND HAIL IMPACTS OVER N- AND W-PORTIONS OF S NEW ENGLAND. THE STRONG
TO SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS SEEMINGLY THERE THOUGH THERE IS SOME
LEVEL OF DOUBT. EVEN SPC WILL WAIT ON HOW THE ENVIRONMENT DEVELOPS
WITH RESPECT TO THEIR CONVECTIVE WEATHER OUTLOOKS...WHETHER THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL DESTABILIZE. CAN NOT RULE IT OUT COMPLETELY AND
WILL PREPARE FOR THE POTENTIAL ACCORDINGLY. FOCUS OF A HEAVY RAIN
THREAT ALONG WITH POTENTIAL HAIL AND STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND
POSSIBILITIES. CAN NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A TORNADO. BUT
NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME TO GO WITH ENHANCED WORDING IN
THE FORECAST.

WHILE FORECAST GUIDANCE SEEMS MIXED WITH AN UNCERTAIN EVOLUTION OF
SYNOPTICS...THERE IS GREATER CONFIDENCE OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY AROUND THE VICINITY OF SE NEW ENGLAND AND ADJACENT WATERS
WHERE THE SW-NE PLUME OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR RESIDES AS WELL AS BOTH
A STRONGER AND CONVERGENT SW-NE H925-85 WIND PROFILE. WOULD EXPECT A
CONTINUATION BEGINNING IN THE MORNING AS OUTLINED IN THE EARLIER
DISCUSSION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH
ALSO COULD BE STRONG AND POSSIBLY SEVERE.

OVERALL...A MILD AND MUGGY DAY WITH HIGHS INTO THE MID- TO UPPER-80S
AS DEWPOINTS RANGE AROUND THE MID- TO UPPER-60S.

TUESDAY NIGHT...

FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THE HIGHER THETA-E / INSTABILITY OUT TO SEA
INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SO ANTICIPATING A DRYING TREND. W-FLOW
PROCEEDING USHERING LOWER DEWPOINT AIR ACROSS THE INTERIOR. AS
CONDITIONS GRADUALLY CLEAR...TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE LOW- TO MID-
60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE AROUND FRIDAY
* TEMPERATURES TRENDING BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD

OVERALL...THE MODELS HAVE RATHER POOR AGREEMENT ON THE GENERAL
PATTERN AND TIMING THROUGH THE LONG TERM. IN SOME TIME PERIODS IT
SEEMS THAT THE GFS MAY JUST BE SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF. IN OTHERS...
THEY ARE JUST COMPLETELY DIFFERENT. THE ENSEMBLES ARE NOT MUCH
HELP IN THAT THE ECMWF ENSEMBLES LOOK VERY SIMILAR TO THE OPERATIONAL
MODEL AND THE GEFS IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE GFS. BASICALLY HAVE TWO
FAIRLY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM. HOWEVER...
GENERAL TRENDS ARE SIMILAR. LOOKING AT A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK.

WEDNESDAY...LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL. DESPITE THE POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES AS A
SHORTWAVE PUSHES INTO THE REGION...EXPECT MUCH OF THE DAY AND MUCH
OF THE AREA TO REMAIN DRY.

THURSDAY...MUCH OF THE DAY LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE AREA. THIS IS ONE OF THOSE TIMES THE TIMING IS
OFF BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS. THE ECMWF IS QUICK TO MOVE THE
HIGH PRESSURE OUT OF THE REGION...PUSHED BY LOW PRESSURE MOVING
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE GFS KEEPS THAT
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE LOW PRESSURE IN
THE GREAT LAKES.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THIS LOOKS TO BE THE MOST
UNSETTLED TIME WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
THEN POSSIBLY UP THE EAST COAST OVER THE 40/70 BENCHMARK SOUTHEAST
OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE ECMWF IS THE MOST BULLISH WITH THIS...
TRACKING THE LOW DIRECTLY OVER THE BENCHMARK AND BRINGING AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN TO MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE GFS
DEVELOPS SOME SORT OF BOUNDARY ALONG WHICH SEVERAL AREAS OF LOW
PRESSURE TRAVEL...BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN TO THE REGION. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE A GIVEN WITH LOWERING HEIGHTS/TEMPS ALOFT
AND MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES FOR MUCH OF THIS TIME.
WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE TEMPS TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S ON FRIDAY.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MUCH OF THIS FORECAST WILL DEPEND ON HOW FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY SHAKE OUT...BUT IN GENERAL THE WEATHER LOOKS DRIER AND
QUIETER WITH REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

THROUGH 12Z...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR...WILL HAVE TO WATCH SOME LEFTOVER SHRA/TSTMS MOVING
THROUGH NY/PA WHICH MAY IMPACT MAINLY CT DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
DEPENDING ON SUNSHINE...EXPECT SOME THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP MID DAY AND CONTINUE...FROM W-E INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE...WITH STRONG WINDS AND
HAIL...AS WELL AS BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
AFTER STORMS/RAIN SWEEPS OFFSHORE LATE THIS EVENING...EXPECT
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR WHICH WILL LINGER INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON
WED. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS THEN POSSIBLE MAINLY N
OF THE MASS PIKE ON WED...BUT NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS TUE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
OF ANY AFTERNOON STORMS.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
OF ANY AFTERNOON STORMS.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. LOW
PROBABILITY OF A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS NW MA WEDNESDAY. ANY
STORMS THAT DEVELOP MAY HAVE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING...HIGHER
CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS.  MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN WIDESPREAD RAIN LIKELY
SOMETIME DURING THIS PERIOD.  VFR BEFORE AND AFTER PERIOD OF RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SW-WINDS CONTINUE WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS...STRONGER OVER THE S-
WATERS AT 25 KTS. WAVES BUILDING TO 5 FEET. PERHAPS SOME PATCHY
FOG ISSUES. INCREASING AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDER- STORMS TOWARDS MORNING. STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SW-WINDS WITH GUSTS 20-25 KTS. WAVES AT 5-6 FEET. CONTINUED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH SOME OF THOSE STORMS BEING
STRONG TO SEVERE.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SW-WINDS BACKING W THROUGH THE NIGHT. GUSTS SUBSIDING. WAVES AT
5-6 FEET. SHOWER / THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONCLUDE W TO E TOWARDS
MORNING.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW 5 FEET EXPECTED. RAIN IS LIKELY
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...LIMITING VISIBILITIES AT TIMES.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EASTERLY WINDS
AND SEAS INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE OUTER WATERS.
RAIN IS LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...LIMITING VISIBILITIES
AT TIMES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ230>234-236-250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...DOODY/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...DOODY/RLG
MARINE...RLG/SIPPRELL




000
FXUS61 KBOX 040540
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
140 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOWARDS TUESDAY
MORNING...CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SOME
OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. DRY...WARM AND LESS
HUMID WEATHER ARRIVES WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY. A
PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE TIMING OF POTENTIAL WET WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...
WE CONTINUE TO WATCH BULK OF ACTIVE CONVECTION ROLL NW OF THE
REGION ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF WEAK
SHORTWAVES AND A PRE-FRONTAL TROF WHICH CONTINUES TO DIMINISH. THE
NEXT ROUND TO WATCH WILL BE THE DEVELOPING CONVECTION COLOCATED
WITH A SECONDARY TROF ACROSS PA AND SE NY. WITH THE MODIFIED EML
SETTLING FURTHER E AND INCREASING MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN
/SOMETHING WE WERE LACKING MOST OF THE DAY/...PLUS A SLIGHT UP-
TICK IN SHEAR WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS DEVELOPMENT AS IT MOVES E
INTO NY/SNE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SOME MESOSCALE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE TYPICAL RIGHT-TURN AS THE CONVECTION DIVES
S TOWARD BETTER INSTABILITY WHILE OTHERS LEAVE THE STEERING FLOW
IN CONTROL...TAKING IT ACROSS CT/SE MASS. HAVE INCREASED POPS IN
THIS AREA PRIMARILY WHILE LOWERING THEM SOMEWHAT ELSEWHERE. IT
WILL BE INTERESTING TO OBSERVE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOUR
CONVECTION SURVIVES WITH LITTLE SFC BASED SUPPORT.
OTHERWISE...MILD...MIN TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...

POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE WEATHER OUTCOMES INTO SE NEW ENGLAND TOWARDS
TUESDAY MORNING. FORECAST GUIDANCE CONSENSUS NOTES AN INSTABILITY
BURST ELEVATED AND MAINTAINED BY A S/SW WARM-MOIST PLUME OF HIGHER
THETA-E AIR ABOVE A SUBSEQUENT INVERSION. PWATS OF 1.50-1.75 INCHES.
ACTIVITY LOOKS TO ORIGINATE ALONG THE NOSE OF A H925-85 JET WITHIN A
H85-7 ENVIRONMENT OF 6-7C/KM LAPSE RATES. YET THERE IS A LACK OF
DEEP-LAYER FORCING AS THE BETTER AREA OF PVA / MID-LEVEL TROUGH /
SURFACE COLD FRONT REMAIN TO THE W.

THINKING IS THAT WE MAY SEE A WIDESPREAD AREA OF ACTIVITY OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS COLLOCATED WITH THE CONVERGENT LOW-LEVEL PLUME.
UNCERTAINTY IF ANY THUNDERSTORMS BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. HEAVY RAIN
LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT ALONG WITH LIGHTNING. THINKING LOW RISK
SEVERE AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE STORMS TO BECOME STRONG. WILL
SEE COLLOCATED UNI-DIRECTIONAL SW-NE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR EXCEEDING 40
KTS AND FREEZING LEVELS OF AROUND 11 KFT. SOME EVIDENCE OF TURNING
WITHIN THE 0-1/0-3 KM LAYER. SREF DOES DENOTE DECENT PROBABILITIES
OF INSTABILITY EXCEEDING 2K J/KG IN ADDITION TO THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHEAR AND TURNING ENVIRONMENT. THOUGH SREF PROBS NOT SO MUCH HELPFUL
WITH RESPECT TO PRECIP ACCUMULATIONS...THUS CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT
TO POSSIBLE FLOODING IS LOW DESPITE THE ANTICIPATED OUTCOMES THAT
WERE DISCUSSED ABOVE. WILL AVOID ENHANCED WORDING WITH THE FORECAST
FOR THE TIME BEING.

SHOULD BETTER FORCING AND VENTING ALOFT WITH THE H3 JET SHIFT E...
THERE WOULD BE GREATER IMPETUS UPON THE ENVIRONMENT TO GENERATE
GREATER AND LIKELY STRONGER CONVECTIVE WEATHER. INTERESTING AS TO
WHETHER CONVECTIVE REMNANTS W FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY SHIFT E AND
ACT AS A CRUX OF FORCING VIA LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. OVERALL
INDIVIDUAL MODELS CONTINUE TO WOBBLE AND THERE IS JUST AN UNDERLYING
LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY OTHER THAN THE FOCUS BEING ON SE NEW ENGLAND.
IT MAY BE QUIET THROUGHOUT AS THE PRESENT DRY SUBSIDING WEDGE OF
AIR ACROSS THE REGION MAINTAINS.

OTHERWISE SW-FLOW CONTINUES OVERNIGHT USHERING HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR
ACROSS INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND. SHOULD REMAIN BREEZY ALONG THE S/SE-
COAST. INCREASING CLOUD COVER SHOULD YIELD MILD LOW TEMPERATURES
AROUND THE MID- TO UPPER-60S AND MAY SUBSEQUENTLY LIMIT PATCHY DENSE
FOG TO JUST ACROSS S/SE NEW ENGLAND IN HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TUESDAY...

A COMBINATION OF RISING HEIGHTS WITHIN THE MID-LEVELS COMBINED WITH
DRIER AIR ALOFT COULD SUBDUE THE POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT.
BENEATH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT THRU WHICH ADDITIONAL MID-LEVEL IMPULSES
AND ACCOMPANYING JET-STREAKS RESIDE...THE OVERALL QUESTION IS AS TO
WHETHER A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CAN BECOME THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. SWEEPING THROUGH AN ENVIRONMENT OF ROBUST THETA-E
AIR AND INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF 2K J/KG IN WHICH LAPSE RATES ARE
STEEP ESPECIALLY H85-7 AND SHEAR PROFILES ARE MODERATE TO STRONG TO
50 KTS WITH SLIGHT TURNING WITHIN THE 0-1/0-3 KM PROFILE...THERE
APPEARS TO BE MECHANISMS FOR FORCING...BUT SHOULD MID-LEVEL RIDGING
PROCEED...THIS SEEMS TO SQUASH THE POSSIBILITY FOR CONVECTION. THERE
IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY THAT SHOULD ACTIVITY DEVELOP TOWARDS MORNING
OVER SE NEW ENGLAND AS NOTED EARLIER IT COULD SUBDUE THE ENVIRONMENT
FROM BECOMING CONVECTIVE /I.E. CLOUD COVER/. A VERY COMPLICATED
FORECAST.

BUT STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOMETHING POPPING
ACROSS THE INTERIOR. AM SOMEWHAT CONCERNED NOTING THE CIPS ANALOG
GUIDANCE IN WHERE SEVERAL OF THE ANALOGS WITNESSED SUBSTANTIAL WIND
AND HAIL IMPACTS OVER N- AND W-PORTIONS OF S NEW ENGLAND. THE STRONG
TO SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS SEEMINGLY THERE THOUGH THERE IS SOME
LEVEL OF DOUBT. EVEN SPC WILL WAIT ON HOW THE ENVIRONMENT DEVELOPS
WITH RESPECT TO THEIR CONVECTIVE WEATHER OUTLOOKS...WHETHER THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL DESTABILIZE. CAN NOT RULE IT OUT COMPLETELY AND
WILL PREPARE FOR THE POTENTIAL ACCORDINGLY. FOCUS OF A HEAVY RAIN
THREAT ALONG WITH POTENTIAL HAIL AND STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND
POSSIBILITIES. CAN NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A TORNADO. BUT
NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME TO GO WITH ENHANCED WORDING IN
THE FORECAST.

WHILE FORECAST GUIDANCE SEEMS MIXED WITH AN UNCERTAIN EVOLUTION OF
SYNOPTICS...THERE IS GREATER CONFIDENCE OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY AROUND THE VICINITY OF SE NEW ENGLAND AND ADJACENT WATERS
WHERE THE SW-NE PLUME OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR RESIDES AS WELL AS BOTH
A STRONGER AND CONVERGENT SW-NE H925-85 WIND PROFILE. WOULD EXPECT A
CONTINUATION BEGINNING IN THE MORNING AS OUTLINED IN THE EARLIER
DISCUSSION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH
ALSO COULD BE STRONG AND POSSIBLY SEVERE.

OVERALL...A MILD AND MUGGY DAY WITH HIGHS INTO THE MID- TO UPPER-80S
AS DEWPOINTS RANGE AROUND THE MID- TO UPPER-60S.

TUESDAY NIGHT...

FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THE HIGHER THETA-E / INSTABILITY OUT TO SEA
INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SO ANTICIPATING A DRYING TREND. W-FLOW
PROCEEDING USHERING LOWER DEWPOINT AIR ACROSS THE INTERIOR. AS
CONDITIONS GRADUALLY CLEAR...TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE LOW- TO MID-
60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE AROUND FRIDAY
* TEMPERATURES TRENDING BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD

OVERALL...THE MODELS HAVE RATHER POOR AGREEMENT ON THE GENERAL
PATTERN AND TIMING THROUGH THE LONG TERM. IN SOME TIME PERIODS IT
SEEMS THAT THE GFS MAY JUST BE SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF. IN OTHERS...
THEY ARE JUST COMPLETELY DIFFERENT. THE ENSEMBLES ARE NOT MUCH
HELP IN THAT THE ECMWF ENSEMBLES LOOK VERY SIMILAR TO THE OPERATIONAL
MODEL AND THE GEFS IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE GFS. BASICALLY HAVE TWO
FAIRLY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM. HOWEVER...
GENERAL TRENDS ARE SIMILAR. LOOKING AT A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK.

WEDNESDAY...LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL. DESPITE THE POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES AS A
SHORTWAVE PUSHES INTO THE REGION...EXPECT MUCH OF THE DAY AND MUCH
OF THE AREA TO REMAIN DRY.

THURSDAY...MUCH OF THE DAY LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE AREA. THIS IS ONE OF THOSE TIMES THE TIMING IS
OFF BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS. THE ECMWF IS QUICK TO MOVE THE
HIGH PRESSURE OUT OF THE REGION...PUSHED BY LOW PRESSURE MOVING
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE GFS KEEPS THAT
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE LOW PRESSURE IN
THE GREAT LAKES.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THIS LOOKS TO BE THE MOST
UNSETTLED TIME WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
THEN POSSIBLY UP THE EAST COAST OVER THE 40/70 BENCHMARK SOUTHEAST
OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE ECMWF IS THE MOST BULLISH WITH THIS...
TRACKING THE LOW DIRECTLY OVER THE BENCHMARK AND BRINGING AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN TO MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE GFS
DEVELOPS SOME SORT OF BOUNDARY ALONG WHICH SEVERAL AREAS OF LOW
PRESSURE TRAVEL...BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN TO THE REGION. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE A GIVEN WITH LOWERING HEIGHTS/TEMPS ALOFT
AND MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES FOR MUCH OF THIS TIME.
WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE TEMPS TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S ON FRIDAY.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MUCH OF THIS FORECAST WILL DEPEND ON HOW FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY SHAKE OUT...BUT IN GENERAL THE WEATHER LOOKS DRIER AND
QUIETER WITH REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

THROUGH 12Z...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR...WILL HAVE TO WATCH SOME LEFTOVER SHRA/TSTMS MOVING
THROUGH NY/PA WHICH MAY IMPACT MAINLY CT DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
DEPENDING ON SUNSHINE...EXPECT SOME THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP MID DAY AND CONTINUE...FROM W-E INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE...WITH STRONG WINDS AND
HAIL...AS WELL AS BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
AFTER STORMS/RAIN SWEEPS OFFSHORE LATE THIS EVENING...EXPECT
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR WHICH WILL LINGER INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON
WED. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS THEN POSSIBLE MAINLY N
OF THE MASS PIKE ON WED...BUT NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS TUE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
OF ANY AFTERNOON STORMS.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
OF ANY AFTERNOON STORMS.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. LOW
PROBABILITY OF A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS NW MA WEDNESDAY. ANY
STORMS THAT DEVELOP MAY HAVE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING...HIGHER
CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS.  MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN WIDESPREAD RAIN LIKELY
SOMETIME DURING THIS PERIOD.  VFR BEFORE AND AFTER PERIOD OF RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SW-WINDS CONTINUE WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS...STRONGER OVER THE S-
WATERS AT 25 KTS. WAVES BUILDING TO 5 FEET. PERHAPS SOME PATCHY
FOG ISSUES. INCREASING AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDER- STORMS TOWARDS MORNING. STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SW-WINDS WITH GUSTS 20-25 KTS. WAVES AT 5-6 FEET. CONTINUED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH SOME OF THOSE STORMS BEING
STRONG TO SEVERE.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SW-WINDS BACKING W THROUGH THE NIGHT. GUSTS SUBSIDING. WAVES AT
5-6 FEET. SHOWER / THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONCLUDE W TO E TOWARDS
MORNING.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW 5 FEET EXPECTED. RAIN IS LIKELY
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...LIMITING VISIBILITIES AT TIMES.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EASTERLY WINDS
AND SEAS INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE OUTER WATERS.
RAIN IS LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...LIMITING VISIBILITIES
AT TIMES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ230>234-236-250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...DOODY/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...DOODY/RLG
MARINE...RLG/SIPPRELL




000
FXUS61 KBOX 040540
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
140 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOWARDS TUESDAY
MORNING...CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SOME
OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. DRY...WARM AND LESS
HUMID WEATHER ARRIVES WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY. A
PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE TIMING OF POTENTIAL WET WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...
WE CONTINUE TO WATCH BULK OF ACTIVE CONVECTION ROLL NW OF THE
REGION ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF WEAK
SHORTWAVES AND A PRE-FRONTAL TROF WHICH CONTINUES TO DIMINISH. THE
NEXT ROUND TO WATCH WILL BE THE DEVELOPING CONVECTION COLOCATED
WITH A SECONDARY TROF ACROSS PA AND SE NY. WITH THE MODIFIED EML
SETTLING FURTHER E AND INCREASING MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN
/SOMETHING WE WERE LACKING MOST OF THE DAY/...PLUS A SLIGHT UP-
TICK IN SHEAR WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS DEVELOPMENT AS IT MOVES E
INTO NY/SNE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SOME MESOSCALE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE TYPICAL RIGHT-TURN AS THE CONVECTION DIVES
S TOWARD BETTER INSTABILITY WHILE OTHERS LEAVE THE STEERING FLOW
IN CONTROL...TAKING IT ACROSS CT/SE MASS. HAVE INCREASED POPS IN
THIS AREA PRIMARILY WHILE LOWERING THEM SOMEWHAT ELSEWHERE. IT
WILL BE INTERESTING TO OBSERVE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOUR
CONVECTION SURVIVES WITH LITTLE SFC BASED SUPPORT.
OTHERWISE...MILD...MIN TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...

POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE WEATHER OUTCOMES INTO SE NEW ENGLAND TOWARDS
TUESDAY MORNING. FORECAST GUIDANCE CONSENSUS NOTES AN INSTABILITY
BURST ELEVATED AND MAINTAINED BY A S/SW WARM-MOIST PLUME OF HIGHER
THETA-E AIR ABOVE A SUBSEQUENT INVERSION. PWATS OF 1.50-1.75 INCHES.
ACTIVITY LOOKS TO ORIGINATE ALONG THE NOSE OF A H925-85 JET WITHIN A
H85-7 ENVIRONMENT OF 6-7C/KM LAPSE RATES. YET THERE IS A LACK OF
DEEP-LAYER FORCING AS THE BETTER AREA OF PVA / MID-LEVEL TROUGH /
SURFACE COLD FRONT REMAIN TO THE W.

THINKING IS THAT WE MAY SEE A WIDESPREAD AREA OF ACTIVITY OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS COLLOCATED WITH THE CONVERGENT LOW-LEVEL PLUME.
UNCERTAINTY IF ANY THUNDERSTORMS BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. HEAVY RAIN
LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT ALONG WITH LIGHTNING. THINKING LOW RISK
SEVERE AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE STORMS TO BECOME STRONG. WILL
SEE COLLOCATED UNI-DIRECTIONAL SW-NE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR EXCEEDING 40
KTS AND FREEZING LEVELS OF AROUND 11 KFT. SOME EVIDENCE OF TURNING
WITHIN THE 0-1/0-3 KM LAYER. SREF DOES DENOTE DECENT PROBABILITIES
OF INSTABILITY EXCEEDING 2K J/KG IN ADDITION TO THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHEAR AND TURNING ENVIRONMENT. THOUGH SREF PROBS NOT SO MUCH HELPFUL
WITH RESPECT TO PRECIP ACCUMULATIONS...THUS CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT
TO POSSIBLE FLOODING IS LOW DESPITE THE ANTICIPATED OUTCOMES THAT
WERE DISCUSSED ABOVE. WILL AVOID ENHANCED WORDING WITH THE FORECAST
FOR THE TIME BEING.

SHOULD BETTER FORCING AND VENTING ALOFT WITH THE H3 JET SHIFT E...
THERE WOULD BE GREATER IMPETUS UPON THE ENVIRONMENT TO GENERATE
GREATER AND LIKELY STRONGER CONVECTIVE WEATHER. INTERESTING AS TO
WHETHER CONVECTIVE REMNANTS W FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY SHIFT E AND
ACT AS A CRUX OF FORCING VIA LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. OVERALL
INDIVIDUAL MODELS CONTINUE TO WOBBLE AND THERE IS JUST AN UNDERLYING
LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY OTHER THAN THE FOCUS BEING ON SE NEW ENGLAND.
IT MAY BE QUIET THROUGHOUT AS THE PRESENT DRY SUBSIDING WEDGE OF
AIR ACROSS THE REGION MAINTAINS.

OTHERWISE SW-FLOW CONTINUES OVERNIGHT USHERING HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR
ACROSS INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND. SHOULD REMAIN BREEZY ALONG THE S/SE-
COAST. INCREASING CLOUD COVER SHOULD YIELD MILD LOW TEMPERATURES
AROUND THE MID- TO UPPER-60S AND MAY SUBSEQUENTLY LIMIT PATCHY DENSE
FOG TO JUST ACROSS S/SE NEW ENGLAND IN HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TUESDAY...

A COMBINATION OF RISING HEIGHTS WITHIN THE MID-LEVELS COMBINED WITH
DRIER AIR ALOFT COULD SUBDUE THE POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT.
BENEATH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT THRU WHICH ADDITIONAL MID-LEVEL IMPULSES
AND ACCOMPANYING JET-STREAKS RESIDE...THE OVERALL QUESTION IS AS TO
WHETHER A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CAN BECOME THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. SWEEPING THROUGH AN ENVIRONMENT OF ROBUST THETA-E
AIR AND INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF 2K J/KG IN WHICH LAPSE RATES ARE
STEEP ESPECIALLY H85-7 AND SHEAR PROFILES ARE MODERATE TO STRONG TO
50 KTS WITH SLIGHT TURNING WITHIN THE 0-1/0-3 KM PROFILE...THERE
APPEARS TO BE MECHANISMS FOR FORCING...BUT SHOULD MID-LEVEL RIDGING
PROCEED...THIS SEEMS TO SQUASH THE POSSIBILITY FOR CONVECTION. THERE
IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY THAT SHOULD ACTIVITY DEVELOP TOWARDS MORNING
OVER SE NEW ENGLAND AS NOTED EARLIER IT COULD SUBDUE THE ENVIRONMENT
FROM BECOMING CONVECTIVE /I.E. CLOUD COVER/. A VERY COMPLICATED
FORECAST.

BUT STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOMETHING POPPING
ACROSS THE INTERIOR. AM SOMEWHAT CONCERNED NOTING THE CIPS ANALOG
GUIDANCE IN WHERE SEVERAL OF THE ANALOGS WITNESSED SUBSTANTIAL WIND
AND HAIL IMPACTS OVER N- AND W-PORTIONS OF S NEW ENGLAND. THE STRONG
TO SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS SEEMINGLY THERE THOUGH THERE IS SOME
LEVEL OF DOUBT. EVEN SPC WILL WAIT ON HOW THE ENVIRONMENT DEVELOPS
WITH RESPECT TO THEIR CONVECTIVE WEATHER OUTLOOKS...WHETHER THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL DESTABILIZE. CAN NOT RULE IT OUT COMPLETELY AND
WILL PREPARE FOR THE POTENTIAL ACCORDINGLY. FOCUS OF A HEAVY RAIN
THREAT ALONG WITH POTENTIAL HAIL AND STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND
POSSIBILITIES. CAN NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A TORNADO. BUT
NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME TO GO WITH ENHANCED WORDING IN
THE FORECAST.

WHILE FORECAST GUIDANCE SEEMS MIXED WITH AN UNCERTAIN EVOLUTION OF
SYNOPTICS...THERE IS GREATER CONFIDENCE OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY AROUND THE VICINITY OF SE NEW ENGLAND AND ADJACENT WATERS
WHERE THE SW-NE PLUME OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR RESIDES AS WELL AS BOTH
A STRONGER AND CONVERGENT SW-NE H925-85 WIND PROFILE. WOULD EXPECT A
CONTINUATION BEGINNING IN THE MORNING AS OUTLINED IN THE EARLIER
DISCUSSION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH
ALSO COULD BE STRONG AND POSSIBLY SEVERE.

OVERALL...A MILD AND MUGGY DAY WITH HIGHS INTO THE MID- TO UPPER-80S
AS DEWPOINTS RANGE AROUND THE MID- TO UPPER-60S.

TUESDAY NIGHT...

FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THE HIGHER THETA-E / INSTABILITY OUT TO SEA
INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SO ANTICIPATING A DRYING TREND. W-FLOW
PROCEEDING USHERING LOWER DEWPOINT AIR ACROSS THE INTERIOR. AS
CONDITIONS GRADUALLY CLEAR...TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE LOW- TO MID-
60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE AROUND FRIDAY
* TEMPERATURES TRENDING BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD

OVERALL...THE MODELS HAVE RATHER POOR AGREEMENT ON THE GENERAL
PATTERN AND TIMING THROUGH THE LONG TERM. IN SOME TIME PERIODS IT
SEEMS THAT THE GFS MAY JUST BE SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF. IN OTHERS...
THEY ARE JUST COMPLETELY DIFFERENT. THE ENSEMBLES ARE NOT MUCH
HELP IN THAT THE ECMWF ENSEMBLES LOOK VERY SIMILAR TO THE OPERATIONAL
MODEL AND THE GEFS IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE GFS. BASICALLY HAVE TWO
FAIRLY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM. HOWEVER...
GENERAL TRENDS ARE SIMILAR. LOOKING AT A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK.

WEDNESDAY...LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL. DESPITE THE POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES AS A
SHORTWAVE PUSHES INTO THE REGION...EXPECT MUCH OF THE DAY AND MUCH
OF THE AREA TO REMAIN DRY.

THURSDAY...MUCH OF THE DAY LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE AREA. THIS IS ONE OF THOSE TIMES THE TIMING IS
OFF BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS. THE ECMWF IS QUICK TO MOVE THE
HIGH PRESSURE OUT OF THE REGION...PUSHED BY LOW PRESSURE MOVING
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE GFS KEEPS THAT
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE LOW PRESSURE IN
THE GREAT LAKES.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THIS LOOKS TO BE THE MOST
UNSETTLED TIME WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
THEN POSSIBLY UP THE EAST COAST OVER THE 40/70 BENCHMARK SOUTHEAST
OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE ECMWF IS THE MOST BULLISH WITH THIS...
TRACKING THE LOW DIRECTLY OVER THE BENCHMARK AND BRINGING AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN TO MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE GFS
DEVELOPS SOME SORT OF BOUNDARY ALONG WHICH SEVERAL AREAS OF LOW
PRESSURE TRAVEL...BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN TO THE REGION. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE A GIVEN WITH LOWERING HEIGHTS/TEMPS ALOFT
AND MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES FOR MUCH OF THIS TIME.
WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE TEMPS TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S ON FRIDAY.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MUCH OF THIS FORECAST WILL DEPEND ON HOW FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY SHAKE OUT...BUT IN GENERAL THE WEATHER LOOKS DRIER AND
QUIETER WITH REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

THROUGH 12Z...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR...WILL HAVE TO WATCH SOME LEFTOVER SHRA/TSTMS MOVING
THROUGH NY/PA WHICH MAY IMPACT MAINLY CT DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
DEPENDING ON SUNSHINE...EXPECT SOME THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP MID DAY AND CONTINUE...FROM W-E INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE...WITH STRONG WINDS AND
HAIL...AS WELL AS BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
AFTER STORMS/RAIN SWEEPS OFFSHORE LATE THIS EVENING...EXPECT
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR WHICH WILL LINGER INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON
WED. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS THEN POSSIBLE MAINLY N
OF THE MASS PIKE ON WED...BUT NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS TUE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
OF ANY AFTERNOON STORMS.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
OF ANY AFTERNOON STORMS.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. LOW
PROBABILITY OF A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS NW MA WEDNESDAY. ANY
STORMS THAT DEVELOP MAY HAVE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING...HIGHER
CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS.  MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN WIDESPREAD RAIN LIKELY
SOMETIME DURING THIS PERIOD.  VFR BEFORE AND AFTER PERIOD OF RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SW-WINDS CONTINUE WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS...STRONGER OVER THE S-
WATERS AT 25 KTS. WAVES BUILDING TO 5 FEET. PERHAPS SOME PATCHY
FOG ISSUES. INCREASING AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDER- STORMS TOWARDS MORNING. STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SW-WINDS WITH GUSTS 20-25 KTS. WAVES AT 5-6 FEET. CONTINUED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH SOME OF THOSE STORMS BEING
STRONG TO SEVERE.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SW-WINDS BACKING W THROUGH THE NIGHT. GUSTS SUBSIDING. WAVES AT
5-6 FEET. SHOWER / THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONCLUDE W TO E TOWARDS
MORNING.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW 5 FEET EXPECTED. RAIN IS LIKELY
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...LIMITING VISIBILITIES AT TIMES.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EASTERLY WINDS
AND SEAS INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE OUTER WATERS.
RAIN IS LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...LIMITING VISIBILITIES
AT TIMES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ230>234-236-250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...DOODY/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...DOODY/RLG
MARINE...RLG/SIPPRELL




000
FXUS61 KALY 040257
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1057 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE
STILL COULD BE ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL LINGER OVER QUEBEC THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK...BRINGING COOLER AIR INTO OUR REGION...AND TRIGGERING
SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY NORTH OF I90 AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

AS OF 1030 PM EDT...WE ARE STILL DEALING WITH WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ONE CELL IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY LOOKED
STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE SO A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING WAS
ISSUED ON THAT CELL.

THESE WERE TIED INTO A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH...SLOWLY EXISTING THE
REGION BUT A COLD FRONT STILL WELL TO OUR WEST. INSTABILTY  STILL
WAS AROUND 1000 J/KG...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.5 C/KM AND
0-6KM BULK SHEAR WAS CLOSE TO 40 KTS. THESE INGREDIENTS ARE JUST
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LOCALLY STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR AT
LEAST A COUPLE MORE HOURS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ADDITIONAL NON SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
COULD LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS...DIMINISHING AROUND OR A
LITTLE AFTER MIDNIGHT...EXCEPT SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY...WHERE
THE THREAT MIGHT LINGER AWHILE LONGER AS THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES.

SOME STRATUS MIGHT FORM THE RESULT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVERNIGHT
AND JUST ENOUGH WIND TO LIFT ANY FOG INTO A STRATUS DECK.

LEFT OVERNIGHT LOWS ALONE...AS THEY DIP BACK INTO THE 60S...WITH
SOME UPPER 50S NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. IT WILL STILL
BE SOMEWHAT MUGGY WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY AVERAGING AROUND 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR WRN NEW ENGLAND BY
DAYBREAK. THE SFC DEWPT BOUNDARY WILL STILL BE PROGRESSING EAST
ACROSS ERN NY. THE NAM IS ADVERTISING ALOT OF INSTABILITY FOR TUE
WITH A DEEPLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THE GFS HAS LESS AGAIN...BUT
THERE IS A SMALL AREA OF HIGH INSTABILITY FROM THE THE MASS PIKE
SOUTH AND EAST INTO NW CT. SPC DOES HAVE LITCHFIELD CTY CLIPPED BY
THE MARGINAL RISK. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE AROUND 6.5C/KM
WITH ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR SOME STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL /NO ENHANCED WORDING YET/...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST. LOW- LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING
DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE PM. DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS OFF THE
ERN CATSKILLS/ERN DACKS MAY ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO GET INTO THE MID
AND U80S IN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION. EXPECT M70S TO
L80S IN MOST OTHER LOCATIONS...EXCEPT OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN
GREENS WHERE SOME U60S TO L70S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE COLD ADVECTION
REGIME...AS H850 TEMPS LOWER TO +10C TO +16C FROM NW TO SE OVER
THE FCST AREA BY THE LATE PM. A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SUNSET.

TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL HEATING THE SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY. THE ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS MAY LINGER THE LONGEST OVER THE SRN DACKS. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60F WITH SOME U40S TO L50S
OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN GREENS. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE QUITE
COMFORTABLE.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE FCST AREA WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER S-CNTRL QUEBEC. IN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW ANOTHER PIECE OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY WILL SWING ACROSS UPSTATE
NY AND NEW ENGLAND. THE BEST CHC OF ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS DUE TO THE
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. H500 TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -15C TO -18C FROM ALY
NORTH AND WEST. THE H500 HEIGHTS ARE ABOUT 2-3 STD DEVS BELOW
NORMAL BASED ON THE LATEST GEFS FOR WED. H850 TEMPS WILL BE 1-2
STD DEVS BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS ON WED WILL BE IN THE M60S TO L70S
OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS...WITH A FEW 80F
READINGS NEAR KPOU. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR COOL NIGHT FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF AUG...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE U40S TO M50S OVER
THE FCST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RETURN TO MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THIS
PERIOD...AND IS EXPECTED TO LAST.  HOWEVER...WEAK DISTURBANCES
INTERMINGLED WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MEAN RATHER SMALL CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS ON SOME DAYS...PARTICULARLY THE MORE SOUTHERN ZONES...
WHICH WILL BE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO A QUASI-STATIONARY MID-ATLANTIC
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  IF ANYTHING...THE LATTER PORTION OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO HAVE THE DRIEST CONDITIONS...GOOD NEWS FOR
WEEKENDERS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S...AND LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE 50S WILL BE EXTREMELY COMMON...WITH LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY VARIATION.
THE NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS AT ALBANY...RESPECTIVELY...ARE IN THE
LOWER 80S AND LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THERE IS STILL THE POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION DIRECTLY IMPACTING
THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. FOR NOW...WE FELT THE
BEST THREAT WAS ALL THE SITES BUT KPOU...SO INCLUDED TEMPOS FOR AN
HOUR OR SO AT ALL THE TAFS BUT KPOU FOR A THUNDERSTORM AND MVFR
CONDITIONS.

OTHERWISE...WE ARE LOOKING MAINLY AT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. AFTER THAT...WE WILL CONTINUE WITH IFR FOG AT KGFL AFTER
08Z...MVFR FOG AND PERHAPS MVFR STRATUS AT THE OTHER SITES.

WE DISSIPATE ALL FOG BY 12Z. THAT IS ABOUT THE TIME THE REAL COLD
FRONT WILL ACTUALLY BEGIN TO WORK ACROSS THE TAF SITES.

THE FRONT DOES NOT LOOK TO BE ALL THAT ACTIVE...BUT FOR NOW...DID
INCLUDE A VCSH AT KGFL AFTER 17Z. FOR NOW DID NOT INCLUDE ANY VCSH
AT THE OTHER TAF SITES. A THUNDERSTORM IS REMOTELY POSSIBLE AT ANY
OF THE TAF SITES MIDDAY OR AFTERNOON.

THE WIND WILL BE GENERALLY BE SOUTH 5-10KTS THIS EVENING...A
LITTLE LIGHTER OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. A SOUTH
WIND WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST TO WEST BY MIDDAY TUESDAY...AVERAGING
AROUND 10KTS...WITH GUSTS CLOSER TO 20 KTS.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WED NITE-THU NITE: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI-FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTAIN SOME HAIL GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.

AN UPPER LEVEL COULD GENERATE AN ADDITIONAL SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION ON TUESDAY.

OTHERWISE LOOK FOR A REDUCTION IN HEAT AND HUMIDITY...ESPECIALLY
ON WEDNESDAY. WITH A COLD POOL ALOFT AN ADDITIONAL  SHOWER IS
REMOTELY POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY BUT OTHERWISE IT IS DRY.

THE RH VALUES INCREASE TO 75 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH
VALUES WILL LOWER TO 35 TO 55 PERCENT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

SOUTH WIND WILL BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT. THE WIND WILL BECOME
WEST TO SOUTHWEST 5 TO 15 MPH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEST TO
NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH ON WEDNESDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR A WETTING RAIN WILL BE FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING...SOME OF
WHICH HAVE CONTAINED VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS (LOCALIZED TWO INCH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS). HOWEVER...RIVER BASIN AVERAGES WILL BE CLOSER
TO A QUARTER INCH. OTHER THAN THE USUAL LOCALIZED PONDING OF
WATER...THERE SHOULD NOT BE MUCH IF ANY RESPONSE ON ANY OF THE
SIGNIFICANT CREEKS OR RIVERS ACROSS THE REGION.

MORE WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. LITTLE OR NO HYDRO
PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE AT THIS TIME.

MAINLY DRY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

THEN...A MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN IS POSSIBLE FOR FRIDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV/WASULA
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/BGM/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 040257
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1057 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE
STILL COULD BE ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL LINGER OVER QUEBEC THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK...BRINGING COOLER AIR INTO OUR REGION...AND TRIGGERING
SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY NORTH OF I90 AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

AS OF 1030 PM EDT...WE ARE STILL DEALING WITH WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ONE CELL IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY LOOKED
STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE SO A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING WAS
ISSUED ON THAT CELL.

THESE WERE TIED INTO A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH...SLOWLY EXISTING THE
REGION BUT A COLD FRONT STILL WELL TO OUR WEST. INSTABILTY  STILL
WAS AROUND 1000 J/KG...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.5 C/KM AND
0-6KM BULK SHEAR WAS CLOSE TO 40 KTS. THESE INGREDIENTS ARE JUST
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LOCALLY STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR AT
LEAST A COUPLE MORE HOURS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ADDITIONAL NON SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
COULD LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS...DIMINISHING AROUND OR A
LITTLE AFTER MIDNIGHT...EXCEPT SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY...WHERE
THE THREAT MIGHT LINGER AWHILE LONGER AS THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES.

SOME STRATUS MIGHT FORM THE RESULT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVERNIGHT
AND JUST ENOUGH WIND TO LIFT ANY FOG INTO A STRATUS DECK.

LEFT OVERNIGHT LOWS ALONE...AS THEY DIP BACK INTO THE 60S...WITH
SOME UPPER 50S NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. IT WILL STILL
BE SOMEWHAT MUGGY WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY AVERAGING AROUND 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR WRN NEW ENGLAND BY
DAYBREAK. THE SFC DEWPT BOUNDARY WILL STILL BE PROGRESSING EAST
ACROSS ERN NY. THE NAM IS ADVERTISING ALOT OF INSTABILITY FOR TUE
WITH A DEEPLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THE GFS HAS LESS AGAIN...BUT
THERE IS A SMALL AREA OF HIGH INSTABILITY FROM THE THE MASS PIKE
SOUTH AND EAST INTO NW CT. SPC DOES HAVE LITCHFIELD CTY CLIPPED BY
THE MARGINAL RISK. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE AROUND 6.5C/KM
WITH ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR SOME STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL /NO ENHANCED WORDING YET/...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST. LOW- LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING
DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE PM. DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS OFF THE
ERN CATSKILLS/ERN DACKS MAY ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO GET INTO THE MID
AND U80S IN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION. EXPECT M70S TO
L80S IN MOST OTHER LOCATIONS...EXCEPT OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN
GREENS WHERE SOME U60S TO L70S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE COLD ADVECTION
REGIME...AS H850 TEMPS LOWER TO +10C TO +16C FROM NW TO SE OVER
THE FCST AREA BY THE LATE PM. A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SUNSET.

TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL HEATING THE SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY. THE ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS MAY LINGER THE LONGEST OVER THE SRN DACKS. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60F WITH SOME U40S TO L50S
OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN GREENS. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE QUITE
COMFORTABLE.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE FCST AREA WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER S-CNTRL QUEBEC. IN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW ANOTHER PIECE OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY WILL SWING ACROSS UPSTATE
NY AND NEW ENGLAND. THE BEST CHC OF ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS DUE TO THE
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. H500 TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -15C TO -18C FROM ALY
NORTH AND WEST. THE H500 HEIGHTS ARE ABOUT 2-3 STD DEVS BELOW
NORMAL BASED ON THE LATEST GEFS FOR WED. H850 TEMPS WILL BE 1-2
STD DEVS BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS ON WED WILL BE IN THE M60S TO L70S
OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS...WITH A FEW 80F
READINGS NEAR KPOU. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR COOL NIGHT FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF AUG...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE U40S TO M50S OVER
THE FCST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RETURN TO MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THIS
PERIOD...AND IS EXPECTED TO LAST.  HOWEVER...WEAK DISTURBANCES
INTERMINGLED WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MEAN RATHER SMALL CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS ON SOME DAYS...PARTICULARLY THE MORE SOUTHERN ZONES...
WHICH WILL BE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO A QUASI-STATIONARY MID-ATLANTIC
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  IF ANYTHING...THE LATTER PORTION OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO HAVE THE DRIEST CONDITIONS...GOOD NEWS FOR
WEEKENDERS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S...AND LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE 50S WILL BE EXTREMELY COMMON...WITH LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY VARIATION.
THE NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS AT ALBANY...RESPECTIVELY...ARE IN THE
LOWER 80S AND LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THERE IS STILL THE POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION DIRECTLY IMPACTING
THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. FOR NOW...WE FELT THE
BEST THREAT WAS ALL THE SITES BUT KPOU...SO INCLUDED TEMPOS FOR AN
HOUR OR SO AT ALL THE TAFS BUT KPOU FOR A THUNDERSTORM AND MVFR
CONDITIONS.

OTHERWISE...WE ARE LOOKING MAINLY AT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. AFTER THAT...WE WILL CONTINUE WITH IFR FOG AT KGFL AFTER
08Z...MVFR FOG AND PERHAPS MVFR STRATUS AT THE OTHER SITES.

WE DISSIPATE ALL FOG BY 12Z. THAT IS ABOUT THE TIME THE REAL COLD
FRONT WILL ACTUALLY BEGIN TO WORK ACROSS THE TAF SITES.

THE FRONT DOES NOT LOOK TO BE ALL THAT ACTIVE...BUT FOR NOW...DID
INCLUDE A VCSH AT KGFL AFTER 17Z. FOR NOW DID NOT INCLUDE ANY VCSH
AT THE OTHER TAF SITES. A THUNDERSTORM IS REMOTELY POSSIBLE AT ANY
OF THE TAF SITES MIDDAY OR AFTERNOON.

THE WIND WILL BE GENERALLY BE SOUTH 5-10KTS THIS EVENING...A
LITTLE LIGHTER OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. A SOUTH
WIND WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST TO WEST BY MIDDAY TUESDAY...AVERAGING
AROUND 10KTS...WITH GUSTS CLOSER TO 20 KTS.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WED NITE-THU NITE: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI-FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTAIN SOME HAIL GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.

AN UPPER LEVEL COULD GENERATE AN ADDITIONAL SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION ON TUESDAY.

OTHERWISE LOOK FOR A REDUCTION IN HEAT AND HUMIDITY...ESPECIALLY
ON WEDNESDAY. WITH A COLD POOL ALOFT AN ADDITIONAL  SHOWER IS
REMOTELY POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY BUT OTHERWISE IT IS DRY.

THE RH VALUES INCREASE TO 75 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH
VALUES WILL LOWER TO 35 TO 55 PERCENT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

SOUTH WIND WILL BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT. THE WIND WILL BECOME
WEST TO SOUTHWEST 5 TO 15 MPH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEST TO
NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH ON WEDNESDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR A WETTING RAIN WILL BE FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING...SOME OF
WHICH HAVE CONTAINED VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS (LOCALIZED TWO INCH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS). HOWEVER...RIVER BASIN AVERAGES WILL BE CLOSER
TO A QUARTER INCH. OTHER THAN THE USUAL LOCALIZED PONDING OF
WATER...THERE SHOULD NOT BE MUCH IF ANY RESPONSE ON ANY OF THE
SIGNIFICANT CREEKS OR RIVERS ACROSS THE REGION.

MORE WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. LITTLE OR NO HYDRO
PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE AT THIS TIME.

MAINLY DRY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

THEN...A MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN IS POSSIBLE FOR FRIDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV/WASULA
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/BGM/WASULA



000
FXUS61 KOKX 040233
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1033 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH OVERNIGHT THEN STALL
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY. THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY
AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
THE COLD FRONT WAS VERY SLOW TO MOVE...AND REMAINS NEAR THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN SCATTERED TO ISOLATED AND HAVE ADJUSTED
POPS DOWN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY WITH A
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. VERY LITTLE
APPRECIABLE DIFFERENCE WILL BE FELT WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING
ABOVE NORMAL AND SIMILAR HUMIDITY AS MONDAY. LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
THE UPPER TROUGH BUILDS FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST...FORCING THE
ATTENDANT SURFACE FRONT FARTHER OFFSHORE WITH LOWER DEW POINTS
ADVECTING INTO THE REGION. A SUBSEQUENT DECREASE IN HUMIDITY WILL
BE FELT AS THIS OCCURS. BY MORNING...THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAINLY BE
CONFINED TO THE OFFSHORE WATERS.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE
OCEAN BEACHES THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.
A RIP CURRENT STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE OFFSHORE WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER
THE AREA INTO THURSDAY.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEPARTS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH SURFACE LOW OVER THE MID-
WEST TREKKING EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AFFECTING THE AREA MAINLY
FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THERE
IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE IT TRACKS AND THEREFORE HOW MUCH RAIN
WE DO RECEIVE. HOWEVER...IT DOES APPEAR MORE CERTAIN THAT A
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN EVENT IS IN STORE FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.

ISENTROPIC LIFT OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW NOTED IN BOTH THE
12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF...MAINLY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...SO THINKING
THIS WILL BE MORE STRATIFORM RAIN. SURFACE LOW CONTINUES ITS
APPROACH FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS DIFFER IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW.
THE 12Z ECMWF AND 12Z GFS AGREE WITH THE LOW BEING OVER THE NORTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC STATES BY 06Z SATURDAY. THEREAFTER...MODELS DIFFER
QUITE A BIT IN THEIR SOLUTIONS. 12Z ECMWF TREKS THE LOW NORTHEAST IN
SIDE THE 40/70 BENCHMARK THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY WHILE IT SLOWLY
STRENGTHENS WHILE THE GFS WEAKENS THE LOW OVER THE OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OFFSHORE AND WEAKER WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG
IT...WHILE THE 12Z CANADIAN IS AN OUTLIER BEING MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN
THE OTHER MODELS. THEREFORE...SIDED MORE ALONG THE LINES OF THE GFS
AND ECMWF AND KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY

LOW PRESSURE PUSHES AWAY FROM THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS.

OUTSIDE OF FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SEASONABLE FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. RAIN AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN ON FRIDAY...NOT
MAKING IT OUT OF THE 70S REGION-WIDE. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES MAY
PROVE TO BE A BIT LOWER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST. WINDS HAVE
COME DOWN...AND CAN EXPECT S-SW WINDS OF 5-10 KT AT KNYC TERMINALS
AND 5 KT OR LESS INLAND FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING ALONG WITH
MAINLY VFR CONDS.

WILL TEMPO TSRA FOR A FEW HOURS DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS WITH
PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT...FROM 06-09Z OVER FAR WESTERN TERMINALS TO
08-11Z OVER MOST EASTERN TERMINALS. WILL LEAVE OUT OF KGON FOR
NOW...AS IT IS HARD TO TELL IF TSRA WILL MAKE IT THERE.

AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE...WINDS SHIFT TO THE W-SW AND INCREASE TO
8-12 KT. GRADIENT TIGHTENS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LOCAL SEA BREEZES
POSSIBLE AT COASTAL TERMINALS.

SCT SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 03Z WED THROUGH SAT...
.TUE NIGHT...SLGT CHC FOR TSTMS MAINLY CSTL TERMINALS IN THE
EVENING. BECOMING VFR OVERNIGHT. SW FLOW BECOMING NW OVERNIGHT.
.WED-THU...VFR. GENERALLY W FLOW.
.FRI...MVFR OR LOWER IN RAIN. WINDS BECOMING NE.
.SAT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN RAIN. NE WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECAST ON TRACK...NO UPDATES AT THIS TIME.

WINDS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL REMAIN STRONG INTO LATE TONIGHT
BEFORE LIGHTENING WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT.

OCEAN SEAS BUILD DUE TO THE INCREASE IN THESE WINDS. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ON THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY EVENING.

OCEAN SEAS WILL BE SUBSIDING TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT 5 FT SEAS MAY
LINGER ON THE EASTERN OCEAN UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY WITH SUB SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MAY PASS OVER
THE WATERS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. OCCASIONAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY WITH SUB SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LOW PRESSURE MAY PASS OVER OR NEAR THE WATERS
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
OCCASIONAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY ON
THE OCEAN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A TENTH TO A QUARTER INCH OF BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY
HEAVIER THUNDERSTORMS.

A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN WHERE AND WHEN THE
HEAVIEST OF THE RAIN WILL FALL. ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD
LIMIT FLOODING POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 6 AM EDT TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ075-080-081-178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MD/JP
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...MD
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...MET
HYDROLOGY...MD/JP



000
FXUS61 KOKX 040233
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1033 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH OVERNIGHT THEN STALL
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY. THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY
AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
THE COLD FRONT WAS VERY SLOW TO MOVE...AND REMAINS NEAR THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN SCATTERED TO ISOLATED AND HAVE ADJUSTED
POPS DOWN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY WITH A
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. VERY LITTLE
APPRECIABLE DIFFERENCE WILL BE FELT WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING
ABOVE NORMAL AND SIMILAR HUMIDITY AS MONDAY. LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
THE UPPER TROUGH BUILDS FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST...FORCING THE
ATTENDANT SURFACE FRONT FARTHER OFFSHORE WITH LOWER DEW POINTS
ADVECTING INTO THE REGION. A SUBSEQUENT DECREASE IN HUMIDITY WILL
BE FELT AS THIS OCCURS. BY MORNING...THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAINLY BE
CONFINED TO THE OFFSHORE WATERS.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE
OCEAN BEACHES THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.
A RIP CURRENT STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE OFFSHORE WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER
THE AREA INTO THURSDAY.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEPARTS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH SURFACE LOW OVER THE MID-
WEST TREKKING EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AFFECTING THE AREA MAINLY
FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THERE
IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE IT TRACKS AND THEREFORE HOW MUCH RAIN
WE DO RECEIVE. HOWEVER...IT DOES APPEAR MORE CERTAIN THAT A
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN EVENT IS IN STORE FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.

ISENTROPIC LIFT OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW NOTED IN BOTH THE
12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF...MAINLY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...SO THINKING
THIS WILL BE MORE STRATIFORM RAIN. SURFACE LOW CONTINUES ITS
APPROACH FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS DIFFER IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW.
THE 12Z ECMWF AND 12Z GFS AGREE WITH THE LOW BEING OVER THE NORTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC STATES BY 06Z SATURDAY. THEREAFTER...MODELS DIFFER
QUITE A BIT IN THEIR SOLUTIONS. 12Z ECMWF TREKS THE LOW NORTHEAST IN
SIDE THE 40/70 BENCHMARK THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY WHILE IT SLOWLY
STRENGTHENS WHILE THE GFS WEAKENS THE LOW OVER THE OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OFFSHORE AND WEAKER WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG
IT...WHILE THE 12Z CANADIAN IS AN OUTLIER BEING MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN
THE OTHER MODELS. THEREFORE...SIDED MORE ALONG THE LINES OF THE GFS
AND ECMWF AND KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY

LOW PRESSURE PUSHES AWAY FROM THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS.

OUTSIDE OF FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SEASONABLE FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. RAIN AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN ON FRIDAY...NOT
MAKING IT OUT OF THE 70S REGION-WIDE. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES MAY
PROVE TO BE A BIT LOWER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST. WINDS HAVE
COME DOWN...AND CAN EXPECT S-SW WINDS OF 5-10 KT AT KNYC TERMINALS
AND 5 KT OR LESS INLAND FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING ALONG WITH
MAINLY VFR CONDS.

WILL TEMPO TSRA FOR A FEW HOURS DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS WITH
PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT...FROM 06-09Z OVER FAR WESTERN TERMINALS TO
08-11Z OVER MOST EASTERN TERMINALS. WILL LEAVE OUT OF KGON FOR
NOW...AS IT IS HARD TO TELL IF TSRA WILL MAKE IT THERE.

AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE...WINDS SHIFT TO THE W-SW AND INCREASE TO
8-12 KT. GRADIENT TIGHTENS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LOCAL SEA BREEZES
POSSIBLE AT COASTAL TERMINALS.

SCT SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 03Z WED THROUGH SAT...
.TUE NIGHT...SLGT CHC FOR TSTMS MAINLY CSTL TERMINALS IN THE
EVENING. BECOMING VFR OVERNIGHT. SW FLOW BECOMING NW OVERNIGHT.
.WED-THU...VFR. GENERALLY W FLOW.
.FRI...MVFR OR LOWER IN RAIN. WINDS BECOMING NE.
.SAT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN RAIN. NE WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECAST ON TRACK...NO UPDATES AT THIS TIME.

WINDS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL REMAIN STRONG INTO LATE TONIGHT
BEFORE LIGHTENING WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT.

OCEAN SEAS BUILD DUE TO THE INCREASE IN THESE WINDS. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ON THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY EVENING.

OCEAN SEAS WILL BE SUBSIDING TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT 5 FT SEAS MAY
LINGER ON THE EASTERN OCEAN UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY WITH SUB SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MAY PASS OVER
THE WATERS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. OCCASIONAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY WITH SUB SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LOW PRESSURE MAY PASS OVER OR NEAR THE WATERS
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
OCCASIONAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY ON
THE OCEAN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A TENTH TO A QUARTER INCH OF BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY
HEAVIER THUNDERSTORMS.

A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN WHERE AND WHEN THE
HEAVIEST OF THE RAIN WILL FALL. ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD
LIMIT FLOODING POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 6 AM EDT TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ075-080-081-178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MD/JP
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...MD
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...MET
HYDROLOGY...MD/JP



000
FXUS61 KOKX 040233
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1033 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH OVERNIGHT THEN STALL
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY. THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY
AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
THE COLD FRONT WAS VERY SLOW TO MOVE...AND REMAINS NEAR THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN SCATTERED TO ISOLATED AND HAVE ADJUSTED
POPS DOWN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY WITH A
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. VERY LITTLE
APPRECIABLE DIFFERENCE WILL BE FELT WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING
ABOVE NORMAL AND SIMILAR HUMIDITY AS MONDAY. LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
THE UPPER TROUGH BUILDS FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST...FORCING THE
ATTENDANT SURFACE FRONT FARTHER OFFSHORE WITH LOWER DEW POINTS
ADVECTING INTO THE REGION. A SUBSEQUENT DECREASE IN HUMIDITY WILL
BE FELT AS THIS OCCURS. BY MORNING...THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAINLY BE
CONFINED TO THE OFFSHORE WATERS.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE
OCEAN BEACHES THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.
A RIP CURRENT STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE OFFSHORE WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER
THE AREA INTO THURSDAY.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEPARTS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH SURFACE LOW OVER THE MID-
WEST TREKKING EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AFFECTING THE AREA MAINLY
FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THERE
IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE IT TRACKS AND THEREFORE HOW MUCH RAIN
WE DO RECEIVE. HOWEVER...IT DOES APPEAR MORE CERTAIN THAT A
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN EVENT IS IN STORE FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.

ISENTROPIC LIFT OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW NOTED IN BOTH THE
12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF...MAINLY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...SO THINKING
THIS WILL BE MORE STRATIFORM RAIN. SURFACE LOW CONTINUES ITS
APPROACH FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS DIFFER IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW.
THE 12Z ECMWF AND 12Z GFS AGREE WITH THE LOW BEING OVER THE NORTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC STATES BY 06Z SATURDAY. THEREAFTER...MODELS DIFFER
QUITE A BIT IN THEIR SOLUTIONS. 12Z ECMWF TREKS THE LOW NORTHEAST IN
SIDE THE 40/70 BENCHMARK THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY WHILE IT SLOWLY
STRENGTHENS WHILE THE GFS WEAKENS THE LOW OVER THE OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OFFSHORE AND WEAKER WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG
IT...WHILE THE 12Z CANADIAN IS AN OUTLIER BEING MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN
THE OTHER MODELS. THEREFORE...SIDED MORE ALONG THE LINES OF THE GFS
AND ECMWF AND KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY

LOW PRESSURE PUSHES AWAY FROM THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS.

OUTSIDE OF FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SEASONABLE FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. RAIN AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN ON FRIDAY...NOT
MAKING IT OUT OF THE 70S REGION-WIDE. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES MAY
PROVE TO BE A BIT LOWER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST. WINDS HAVE
COME DOWN...AND CAN EXPECT S-SW WINDS OF 5-10 KT AT KNYC TERMINALS
AND 5 KT OR LESS INLAND FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING ALONG WITH
MAINLY VFR CONDS.

WILL TEMPO TSRA FOR A FEW HOURS DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS WITH
PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT...FROM 06-09Z OVER FAR WESTERN TERMINALS TO
08-11Z OVER MOST EASTERN TERMINALS. WILL LEAVE OUT OF KGON FOR
NOW...AS IT IS HARD TO TELL IF TSRA WILL MAKE IT THERE.

AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE...WINDS SHIFT TO THE W-SW AND INCREASE TO
8-12 KT. GRADIENT TIGHTENS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LOCAL SEA BREEZES
POSSIBLE AT COASTAL TERMINALS.

SCT SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 03Z WED THROUGH SAT...
.TUE NIGHT...SLGT CHC FOR TSTMS MAINLY CSTL TERMINALS IN THE
EVENING. BECOMING VFR OVERNIGHT. SW FLOW BECOMING NW OVERNIGHT.
.WED-THU...VFR. GENERALLY W FLOW.
.FRI...MVFR OR LOWER IN RAIN. WINDS BECOMING NE.
.SAT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN RAIN. NE WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECAST ON TRACK...NO UPDATES AT THIS TIME.

WINDS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL REMAIN STRONG INTO LATE TONIGHT
BEFORE LIGHTENING WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT.

OCEAN SEAS BUILD DUE TO THE INCREASE IN THESE WINDS. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ON THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY EVENING.

OCEAN SEAS WILL BE SUBSIDING TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT 5 FT SEAS MAY
LINGER ON THE EASTERN OCEAN UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY WITH SUB SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MAY PASS OVER
THE WATERS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. OCCASIONAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY WITH SUB SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LOW PRESSURE MAY PASS OVER OR NEAR THE WATERS
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
OCCASIONAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY ON
THE OCEAN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A TENTH TO A QUARTER INCH OF BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY
HEAVIER THUNDERSTORMS.

A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN WHERE AND WHEN THE
HEAVIEST OF THE RAIN WILL FALL. ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD
LIMIT FLOODING POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 6 AM EDT TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ075-080-081-178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MD/JP
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...MD
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...MET
HYDROLOGY...MD/JP



000
FXUS61 KOKX 040233
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1033 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH OVERNIGHT THEN STALL
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY. THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY
AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
THE COLD FRONT WAS VERY SLOW TO MOVE...AND REMAINS NEAR THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN SCATTERED TO ISOLATED AND HAVE ADJUSTED
POPS DOWN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY WITH A
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. VERY LITTLE
APPRECIABLE DIFFERENCE WILL BE FELT WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING
ABOVE NORMAL AND SIMILAR HUMIDITY AS MONDAY. LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
THE UPPER TROUGH BUILDS FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST...FORCING THE
ATTENDANT SURFACE FRONT FARTHER OFFSHORE WITH LOWER DEW POINTS
ADVECTING INTO THE REGION. A SUBSEQUENT DECREASE IN HUMIDITY WILL
BE FELT AS THIS OCCURS. BY MORNING...THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAINLY BE
CONFINED TO THE OFFSHORE WATERS.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE
OCEAN BEACHES THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.
A RIP CURRENT STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE OFFSHORE WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER
THE AREA INTO THURSDAY.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEPARTS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH SURFACE LOW OVER THE MID-
WEST TREKKING EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AFFECTING THE AREA MAINLY
FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THERE
IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE IT TRACKS AND THEREFORE HOW MUCH RAIN
WE DO RECEIVE. HOWEVER...IT DOES APPEAR MORE CERTAIN THAT A
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN EVENT IS IN STORE FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.

ISENTROPIC LIFT OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW NOTED IN BOTH THE
12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF...MAINLY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...SO THINKING
THIS WILL BE MORE STRATIFORM RAIN. SURFACE LOW CONTINUES ITS
APPROACH FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS DIFFER IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW.
THE 12Z ECMWF AND 12Z GFS AGREE WITH THE LOW BEING OVER THE NORTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC STATES BY 06Z SATURDAY. THEREAFTER...MODELS DIFFER
QUITE A BIT IN THEIR SOLUTIONS. 12Z ECMWF TREKS THE LOW NORTHEAST IN
SIDE THE 40/70 BENCHMARK THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY WHILE IT SLOWLY
STRENGTHENS WHILE THE GFS WEAKENS THE LOW OVER THE OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OFFSHORE AND WEAKER WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG
IT...WHILE THE 12Z CANADIAN IS AN OUTLIER BEING MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN
THE OTHER MODELS. THEREFORE...SIDED MORE ALONG THE LINES OF THE GFS
AND ECMWF AND KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY

LOW PRESSURE PUSHES AWAY FROM THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS.

OUTSIDE OF FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SEASONABLE FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. RAIN AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN ON FRIDAY...NOT
MAKING IT OUT OF THE 70S REGION-WIDE. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES MAY
PROVE TO BE A BIT LOWER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST. WINDS HAVE
COME DOWN...AND CAN EXPECT S-SW WINDS OF 5-10 KT AT KNYC TERMINALS
AND 5 KT OR LESS INLAND FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING ALONG WITH
MAINLY VFR CONDS.

WILL TEMPO TSRA FOR A FEW HOURS DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS WITH
PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT...FROM 06-09Z OVER FAR WESTERN TERMINALS TO
08-11Z OVER MOST EASTERN TERMINALS. WILL LEAVE OUT OF KGON FOR
NOW...AS IT IS HARD TO TELL IF TSRA WILL MAKE IT THERE.

AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE...WINDS SHIFT TO THE W-SW AND INCREASE TO
8-12 KT. GRADIENT TIGHTENS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LOCAL SEA BREEZES
POSSIBLE AT COASTAL TERMINALS.

SCT SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 03Z WED THROUGH SAT...
.TUE NIGHT...SLGT CHC FOR TSTMS MAINLY CSTL TERMINALS IN THE
EVENING. BECOMING VFR OVERNIGHT. SW FLOW BECOMING NW OVERNIGHT.
.WED-THU...VFR. GENERALLY W FLOW.
.FRI...MVFR OR LOWER IN RAIN. WINDS BECOMING NE.
.SAT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN RAIN. NE WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECAST ON TRACK...NO UPDATES AT THIS TIME.

WINDS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL REMAIN STRONG INTO LATE TONIGHT
BEFORE LIGHTENING WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT.

OCEAN SEAS BUILD DUE TO THE INCREASE IN THESE WINDS. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ON THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY EVENING.

OCEAN SEAS WILL BE SUBSIDING TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT 5 FT SEAS MAY
LINGER ON THE EASTERN OCEAN UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY WITH SUB SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MAY PASS OVER
THE WATERS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. OCCASIONAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY WITH SUB SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LOW PRESSURE MAY PASS OVER OR NEAR THE WATERS
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
OCCASIONAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY ON
THE OCEAN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A TENTH TO A QUARTER INCH OF BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY
HEAVIER THUNDERSTORMS.

A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN WHERE AND WHEN THE
HEAVIEST OF THE RAIN WILL FALL. ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD
LIMIT FLOODING POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 6 AM EDT TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ075-080-081-178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MD/JP
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...MD
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...MET
HYDROLOGY...MD/JP



000
FXUS61 KOKX 040233
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1033 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH OVERNIGHT THEN STALL
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY. THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY
AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
THE COLD FRONT WAS VERY SLOW TO MOVE...AND REMAINS NEAR THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN SCATTERED TO ISOLATED AND HAVE ADJUSTED
POPS DOWN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY WITH A
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. VERY LITTLE
APPRECIABLE DIFFERENCE WILL BE FELT WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING
ABOVE NORMAL AND SIMILAR HUMIDITY AS MONDAY. LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
THE UPPER TROUGH BUILDS FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST...FORCING THE
ATTENDANT SURFACE FRONT FARTHER OFFSHORE WITH LOWER DEW POINTS
ADVECTING INTO THE REGION. A SUBSEQUENT DECREASE IN HUMIDITY WILL
BE FELT AS THIS OCCURS. BY MORNING...THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAINLY BE
CONFINED TO THE OFFSHORE WATERS.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE
OCEAN BEACHES THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.
A RIP CURRENT STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE OFFSHORE WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER
THE AREA INTO THURSDAY.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEPARTS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH SURFACE LOW OVER THE MID-
WEST TREKKING EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AFFECTING THE AREA MAINLY
FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THERE
IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE IT TRACKS AND THEREFORE HOW MUCH RAIN
WE DO RECEIVE. HOWEVER...IT DOES APPEAR MORE CERTAIN THAT A
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN EVENT IS IN STORE FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.

ISENTROPIC LIFT OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW NOTED IN BOTH THE
12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF...MAINLY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...SO THINKING
THIS WILL BE MORE STRATIFORM RAIN. SURFACE LOW CONTINUES ITS
APPROACH FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS DIFFER IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW.
THE 12Z ECMWF AND 12Z GFS AGREE WITH THE LOW BEING OVER THE NORTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC STATES BY 06Z SATURDAY. THEREAFTER...MODELS DIFFER
QUITE A BIT IN THEIR SOLUTIONS. 12Z ECMWF TREKS THE LOW NORTHEAST IN
SIDE THE 40/70 BENCHMARK THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY WHILE IT SLOWLY
STRENGTHENS WHILE THE GFS WEAKENS THE LOW OVER THE OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OFFSHORE AND WEAKER WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG
IT...WHILE THE 12Z CANADIAN IS AN OUTLIER BEING MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN
THE OTHER MODELS. THEREFORE...SIDED MORE ALONG THE LINES OF THE GFS
AND ECMWF AND KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY

LOW PRESSURE PUSHES AWAY FROM THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS.

OUTSIDE OF FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SEASONABLE FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. RAIN AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN ON FRIDAY...NOT
MAKING IT OUT OF THE 70S REGION-WIDE. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES MAY
PROVE TO BE A BIT LOWER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST. WINDS HAVE
COME DOWN...AND CAN EXPECT S-SW WINDS OF 5-10 KT AT KNYC TERMINALS
AND 5 KT OR LESS INLAND FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING ALONG WITH
MAINLY VFR CONDS.

WILL TEMPO TSRA FOR A FEW HOURS DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS WITH
PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT...FROM 06-09Z OVER FAR WESTERN TERMINALS TO
08-11Z OVER MOST EASTERN TERMINALS. WILL LEAVE OUT OF KGON FOR
NOW...AS IT IS HARD TO TELL IF TSRA WILL MAKE IT THERE.

AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE...WINDS SHIFT TO THE W-SW AND INCREASE TO
8-12 KT. GRADIENT TIGHTENS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LOCAL SEA BREEZES
POSSIBLE AT COASTAL TERMINALS.

SCT SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 03Z WED THROUGH SAT...
.TUE NIGHT...SLGT CHC FOR TSTMS MAINLY CSTL TERMINALS IN THE
EVENING. BECOMING VFR OVERNIGHT. SW FLOW BECOMING NW OVERNIGHT.
.WED-THU...VFR. GENERALLY W FLOW.
.FRI...MVFR OR LOWER IN RAIN. WINDS BECOMING NE.
.SAT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN RAIN. NE WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECAST ON TRACK...NO UPDATES AT THIS TIME.

WINDS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL REMAIN STRONG INTO LATE TONIGHT
BEFORE LIGHTENING WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT.

OCEAN SEAS BUILD DUE TO THE INCREASE IN THESE WINDS. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ON THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY EVENING.

OCEAN SEAS WILL BE SUBSIDING TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT 5 FT SEAS MAY
LINGER ON THE EASTERN OCEAN UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY WITH SUB SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MAY PASS OVER
THE WATERS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. OCCASIONAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY WITH SUB SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LOW PRESSURE MAY PASS OVER OR NEAR THE WATERS
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
OCCASIONAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY ON
THE OCEAN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A TENTH TO A QUARTER INCH OF BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY
HEAVIER THUNDERSTORMS.

A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN WHERE AND WHEN THE
HEAVIEST OF THE RAIN WILL FALL. ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD
LIMIT FLOODING POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 6 AM EDT TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ075-080-081-178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MD/JP
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...MD
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...MET
HYDROLOGY...MD/JP



000
FXUS61 KOKX 040233
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1033 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH OVERNIGHT THEN STALL
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY. THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY
AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
THE COLD FRONT WAS VERY SLOW TO MOVE...AND REMAINS NEAR THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN SCATTERED TO ISOLATED AND HAVE ADJUSTED
POPS DOWN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY WITH A
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. VERY LITTLE
APPRECIABLE DIFFERENCE WILL BE FELT WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING
ABOVE NORMAL AND SIMILAR HUMIDITY AS MONDAY. LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
THE UPPER TROUGH BUILDS FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST...FORCING THE
ATTENDANT SURFACE FRONT FARTHER OFFSHORE WITH LOWER DEW POINTS
ADVECTING INTO THE REGION. A SUBSEQUENT DECREASE IN HUMIDITY WILL
BE FELT AS THIS OCCURS. BY MORNING...THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAINLY BE
CONFINED TO THE OFFSHORE WATERS.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE
OCEAN BEACHES THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.
A RIP CURRENT STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE OFFSHORE WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER
THE AREA INTO THURSDAY.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEPARTS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH SURFACE LOW OVER THE MID-
WEST TREKKING EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AFFECTING THE AREA MAINLY
FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THERE
IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE IT TRACKS AND THEREFORE HOW MUCH RAIN
WE DO RECEIVE. HOWEVER...IT DOES APPEAR MORE CERTAIN THAT A
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN EVENT IS IN STORE FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.

ISENTROPIC LIFT OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW NOTED IN BOTH THE
12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF...MAINLY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...SO THINKING
THIS WILL BE MORE STRATIFORM RAIN. SURFACE LOW CONTINUES ITS
APPROACH FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS DIFFER IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW.
THE 12Z ECMWF AND 12Z GFS AGREE WITH THE LOW BEING OVER THE NORTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC STATES BY 06Z SATURDAY. THEREAFTER...MODELS DIFFER
QUITE A BIT IN THEIR SOLUTIONS. 12Z ECMWF TREKS THE LOW NORTHEAST IN
SIDE THE 40/70 BENCHMARK THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY WHILE IT SLOWLY
STRENGTHENS WHILE THE GFS WEAKENS THE LOW OVER THE OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OFFSHORE AND WEAKER WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG
IT...WHILE THE 12Z CANADIAN IS AN OUTLIER BEING MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN
THE OTHER MODELS. THEREFORE...SIDED MORE ALONG THE LINES OF THE GFS
AND ECMWF AND KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY

LOW PRESSURE PUSHES AWAY FROM THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS.

OUTSIDE OF FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SEASONABLE FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. RAIN AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN ON FRIDAY...NOT
MAKING IT OUT OF THE 70S REGION-WIDE. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES MAY
PROVE TO BE A BIT LOWER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST. WINDS HAVE
COME DOWN...AND CAN EXPECT S-SW WINDS OF 5-10 KT AT KNYC TERMINALS
AND 5 KT OR LESS INLAND FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING ALONG WITH
MAINLY VFR CONDS.

WILL TEMPO TSRA FOR A FEW HOURS DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS WITH
PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT...FROM 06-09Z OVER FAR WESTERN TERMINALS TO
08-11Z OVER MOST EASTERN TERMINALS. WILL LEAVE OUT OF KGON FOR
NOW...AS IT IS HARD TO TELL IF TSRA WILL MAKE IT THERE.

AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE...WINDS SHIFT TO THE W-SW AND INCREASE TO
8-12 KT. GRADIENT TIGHTENS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LOCAL SEA BREEZES
POSSIBLE AT COASTAL TERMINALS.

SCT SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 03Z WED THROUGH SAT...
.TUE NIGHT...SLGT CHC FOR TSTMS MAINLY CSTL TERMINALS IN THE
EVENING. BECOMING VFR OVERNIGHT. SW FLOW BECOMING NW OVERNIGHT.
.WED-THU...VFR. GENERALLY W FLOW.
.FRI...MVFR OR LOWER IN RAIN. WINDS BECOMING NE.
.SAT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN RAIN. NE WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECAST ON TRACK...NO UPDATES AT THIS TIME.

WINDS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL REMAIN STRONG INTO LATE TONIGHT
BEFORE LIGHTENING WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT.

OCEAN SEAS BUILD DUE TO THE INCREASE IN THESE WINDS. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ON THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY EVENING.

OCEAN SEAS WILL BE SUBSIDING TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT 5 FT SEAS MAY
LINGER ON THE EASTERN OCEAN UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY WITH SUB SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MAY PASS OVER
THE WATERS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. OCCASIONAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY WITH SUB SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LOW PRESSURE MAY PASS OVER OR NEAR THE WATERS
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
OCCASIONAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY ON
THE OCEAN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A TENTH TO A QUARTER INCH OF BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY
HEAVIER THUNDERSTORMS.

A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN WHERE AND WHEN THE
HEAVIEST OF THE RAIN WILL FALL. ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD
LIMIT FLOODING POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 6 AM EDT TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ075-080-081-178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MD/JP
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...MD
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...MET
HYDROLOGY...MD/JP




000
FXUS61 KBOX 040204
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1004 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOWARDS TUESDAY
MORNING...CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SOME
OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. DRY...WARM AND LESS
HUMID WEATHER ARRIVES WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY. A
PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE TIMING OF POTENTIAL WET WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...
WE CONTINUE TO WATCH BULK OF ACTIVE CONVECTION ROLL NW OF THE
REGION ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF WEAK
SHORTWAVES AND A PRE-FRONTAL TROF WHICH CONTINUES TO DIMINISH. THE
NEXT ROUND TO WATCH WILL BE THE DEVELOPING CONVECTION COLOCATED
WITH A SECONDARY TROF ACROSS PA AND SE NY. WITH THE MODIFIED EML
SETTLING FURTHER E AND INCREASING MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN
/SOMETHING WE WERE LACKING MOST OF THE DAY/...PLUS A SLIGHT UP-
TICK IN SHEAR WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS DEVELOPMENT AS IT MOVES E
INTO NY/SNE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SOME MESOSCALE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE TYPICAL RIGHT-TURN AS THE CONVECTION DIVES
S TOWARD BETTER INSTABILITY WHILE OTHERS LEAVE THE STEERING FLOW
IN CONTROL...TAKING IT ACROSS CT/SE MASS. HAVE INCREASED POPS IN
THIS AREA PRIMARILY WHILE LOWERING THEM SOMEWHAT ELSEWHERE. IT
WILL BE INTERESTING TO OBSERVE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOUR
CONVECTION SURVIVES WITH LITTLE SFC BASED SUPPORT.
OTHERWISE...MILD...MIN TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...

POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE WEATHER OUTCOMES INTO SE NEW ENGLAND TOWARDS
TUESDAY MORNING. FORECAST GUIDANCE CONSENSUS NOTES AN INSTABILITY
BURST ELEVATED AND MAINTAINED BY A S/SW WARM-MOIST PLUME OF HIGHER
THETA-E AIR ABOVE A SUBSEQUENT INVERSION. PWATS OF 1.50-1.75 INCHES.
ACTIVITY LOOKS TO ORIGINATE ALONG THE NOSE OF A H925-85 JET WITHIN A
H85-7 ENVIRONMENT OF 6-7C/KM LAPSE RATES. YET THERE IS A LACK OF
DEEP-LAYER FORCING AS THE BETTER AREA OF PVA / MID-LEVEL TROUGH /
SURFACE COLD FRONT REMAIN TO THE W.

THINKING IS THAT WE MAY SEE A WIDESPREAD AREA OF ACTIVITY OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS COLLOCATED WITH THE CONVERGENT LOW-LEVEL PLUME.
UNCERTAINTY IF ANY THUNDERSTORMS BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. HEAVY RAIN
LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT ALONG WITH LIGHTNING. THINKING LOW RISK
SEVERE AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE STORMS TO BECOME STRONG. WILL
SEE COLLOCATED UNI-DIRECTIONAL SW-NE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR EXCEEDING 40
KTS AND FREEZING LEVELS OF AROUND 11 KFT. SOME EVIDENCE OF TURNING
WITHIN THE 0-1/0-3 KM LAYER. SREF DOES DENOTE DECENT PROBABILITIES
OF INSTABILITY EXCEEDING 2K J/KG IN ADDITION TO THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHEAR AND TURNING ENVIRONMENT. THOUGH SREF PROBS NOT SO MUCH HELPFUL
WITH RESPECT TO PRECIP ACCUMULATIONS...THUS CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT
TO POSSIBLE FLOODING IS LOW DESPITE THE ANTICIPATED OUTCOMES THAT
WERE DISCUSSED ABOVE. WILL AVOID ENHANCED WORDING WITH THE FORECAST
FOR THE TIME BEING.

SHOULD BETTER FORCING AND VENTING ALOFT WITH THE H3 JET SHIFT E...
THERE WOULD BE GREATER IMPETUS UPON THE ENVIRONMENT TO GENERATE
GREATER AND LIKELY STRONGER CONVECTIVE WEATHER. INTERESTING AS TO
WHETHER CONVECTIVE REMNANTS W FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY SHIFT E AND
ACT AS A CRUX OF FORCING VIA LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. OVERALL
INDIVIDUAL MODELS CONTINUE TO WOBBLE AND THERE IS JUST AN UNDERLYING
LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY OTHER THAN THE FOCUS BEING ON SE NEW ENGLAND.
IT MAY BE QUIET THROUGHOUT AS THE PRESENT DRY SUBSIDING WEDGE OF
AIR ACROSS THE REGION MAINTAINS.

OTHERWISE SW-FLOW CONTINUES OVERNIGHT USHERING HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR
ACROSS INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND. SHOULD REMAIN BREEZY ALONG THE S/SE-
COAST. INCREASING CLOUD COVER SHOULD YIELD MILD LOW TEMPERATURES
AROUND THE MID- TO UPPER-60S AND MAY SUBSEQUENTLY LIMIT PATCHY DENSE
FOG TO JUST ACROSS S/SE NEW ENGLAND IN HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...

A COMBINATION OF RISING HEIGHTS WITHIN THE MID-LEVELS COMBINED WITH
DRIER AIR ALOFT COULD SUBDUE THE POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT.
BENEATH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT THRU WHICH ADDITIONAL MID-LEVEL IMPULSES
AND ACCOMPANYING JET-STREAKS RESIDE...THE OVERALL QUESTION IS AS TO
WHETHER A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CAN BECOME THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. SWEEPING THROUGH AN ENVIRONMENT OF ROBUST THETA-E
AIR AND INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF 2K J/KG IN WHICH LAPSE RATES ARE
STEEP ESPECIALLY H85-7 AND SHEAR PROFILES ARE MODERATE TO STRONG TO
50 KTS WITH SLIGHT TURNING WITHIN THE 0-1/0-3 KM PROFILE...THERE
APPEARS TO BE MECHANISMS FOR FORCING...BUT SHOULD MID-LEVEL RIDGING
PROCEED...THIS SEEMS TO SQUASH THE POSSIBILITY FOR CONVECTION. THERE
IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY THAT SHOULD ACTIVITY DEVELOP TOWARDS MORNING
OVER SE NEW ENGLAND AS NOTED EARLIER IT COULD SUBDUE THE ENVIRONMENT
FROM BECOMING CONVECTIVE /I.E. CLOUD COVER/. A VERY COMPLICATED
FORECAST.

BUT STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOMETHING POPPING
ACROSS THE INTERIOR. AM SOMEWHAT CONCERNED NOTING THE CIPS ANALOG
GUIDANCE IN WHERE SEVERAL OF THE ANALOGS WITNESSED SUBSTANTIAL WIND
AND HAIL IMPACTS OVER N- AND W-PORTIONS OF S NEW ENGLAND. THE STRONG
TO SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS SEEMINGLY THERE THOUGH THERE IS SOME
LEVEL OF DOUBT. EVEN SPC WILL WAIT ON HOW THE ENVIRONMENT DEVELOPS
WITH RESPECT TO THEIR CONVECTIVE WEATHER OUTLOOKS...WHETHER THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL DESTABILIZE. CAN NOT RULE IT OUT COMPLETELY AND
WILL PREPARE FOR THE POTENTIAL ACCORDINGLY. FOCUS OF A HEAVY RAIN
THREAT ALONG WITH POTENTIAL HAIL AND STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND
POSSIBILITIES. CAN NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A TORNADO. BUT
NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME TO GO WITH ENHANCED WORDING IN
THE FORECAST.

WHILE FORECAST GUIDANCE SEEMS MIXED WITH AN UNCERTAIN EVOLUTION OF
SYNOPTICS...THERE IS GREATER CONFIDENCE OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY AROUND THE VICINITY OF SE NEW ENGLAND AND ADJACENT WATERS
WHERE THE SW-NE PLUME OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR RESIDES AS WELL AS BOTH
A STRONGER AND CONVERGENT SW-NE H925-85 WIND PROFILE. WOULD EXPECT A
CONTINUATION BEGINNING IN THE MORNING AS OUTLINED IN THE EARLIER
DISCUSSION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH
ALSO COULD BE STRONG AND POSSIBLY SEVERE.

OVERALL...A MILD AND MUGGY DAY WITH HIGHS INTO THE MID- TO UPPER-80S
AS DEWPOINTS RANGE AROUND THE MID- TO UPPER-60S.

TUESDAY NIGHT...

FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THE HIGHER THETA-E / INSTABILITY OUT TO SEA
INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SO ANTICIPATING A DRYING TREND. W-FLOW
PROCEEDING USHERING LOWER DEWPOINT AIR ACROSS THE INTERIOR. AS
CONDITIONS GRADUALLY CLEAR...TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE LOW- TO MID-
60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE AROUND FRIDAY
* TEMPERATURES TRENDING BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD

OVERALL...THE MODELS HAVE RATHER POOR AGREEMENT ON THE GENERAL
PATTERN AND TIMING THROUGH THE LONG TERM. IN SOME TIME PERIODS IT
SEEMS THAT THE GFS MAY JUST BE SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF. IN OTHERS...
THEY ARE JUST COMPLETELY DIFFERENT. THE ENSEMBLES ARE NOT MUCH
HELP IN THAT THE ECMWF ENSEMBLES LOOK VERY SIMILAR TO THE OPERATIONAL
MODEL AND THE GEFS IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE GFS. BASICALLY HAVE TWO
FAIRLY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM. HOWEVER...
GENERAL TRENDS ARE SIMILAR. LOOKING AT A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK.

WEDNESDAY...LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL. DESPITE THE POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES AS A
SHORTWAVE PUSHES INTO THE REGION...EXPECT MUCH OF THE DAY AND MUCH
OF THE AREA TO REMAIN DRY.

THURSDAY...MUCH OF THE DAY LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE AREA. THIS IS ONE OF THOSE TIMES THE TIMING IS
OFF BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS. THE ECMWF IS QUICK TO MOVE THE
HIGH PRESSURE OUT OF THE REGION...PUSHED BY LOW PRESSURE MOVING
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE GFS KEEPS THAT
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE LOW PRESSURE IN
THE GREAT LAKES.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THIS LOOKS TO BE THE MOST
UNSETTLED TIME WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
THEN POSSIBLY UP THE EAST COAST OVER THE 40/70 BENCHMARK SOUTHEAST
OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE ECMWF IS THE MOST BULLISH WITH THIS...
TRACKING THE LOW DIRECTLY OVER THE BENCHMARK AND BRINGING AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN TO MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE GFS
DEVELOPS SOME SORT OF BOUNDARY ALONG WHICH SEVERAL AREAS OF LOW
PRESSURE TRAVEL...BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN TO THE REGION. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE A GIVEN WITH LOWERING HEIGHTS/TEMPS ALOFT
AND MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES FOR MUCH OF THIS TIME.
WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE TEMPS TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S ON FRIDAY.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MUCH OF THIS FORECAST WILL DEPEND ON HOW FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY SHAKE OUT...BUT IN GENERAL THE WEATHER LOOKS DRIER AND
QUIETER WITH REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SW-WINDS. SCT -SHRA SWEEP FROM THE W AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE
OVER SE TERMINALS TOWARDS MORNING WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF TSRA /
+RA AND LOWERING CIGS TO MVFR. PATCHY FOG. VFR ELSEWHERE.

TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
SW-WINDS GUSTY AT TIMES 20-25 KTS. SCT SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE OVER THE
INTERIOR THOUGH BETTER CHANCES OVER SE NEW ENGLAND INTO EVENING.
OTHER THAN MVFR LINGERING OVER SE TERMINALS DURING THE MORNING...
TEMPO MVFR-IFR POSSIBLE WITH ANY WEATHER.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS BACK W WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. TERMINALS CLEAR OUT W TO E.
PREVAILING VFR WITH MVFR CIGS LINGERING OVER SE TERMINALS TOWARDS
MORNING.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP
ACROSS THE TERMINAL TOWARDS TUESDAY MORNING.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. LOW PROBABILITY
OF A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS NW MA WEDNESDAY. ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP MAY HAVE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING...HIGHER
CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS.  MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN WIDESPREAD RAIN LIKELY
SOMETIME DURING THIS PERIOD.  VFR BEFORE AND AFTER PERIOD OF RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SW-WINDS CONTINUE WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS...STRONGER OVER THE S-
WATERS AT 25 KTS. WAVES BUILDING TO 5 FEET. PERHAPS SOME PATCHY
FOG ISSUES. INCREASING AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDER- STORMS TOWARDS MORNING. STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SW-WINDS WITH GUSTS 20-25 KTS. WAVES AT 5-6 FEET. CONTINUED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH SOME OF THOSE STORMS BEING
STRONG TO SEVERE.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SW-WINDS BACKING W THROUGH THE NIGHT. GUSTS SUBSIDING. WAVES AT
5-6 FEET. SHOWER / THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONCLUDE W TO E TOWARDS
MORNING.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW 5 FEET EXPECTED. RAIN IS LIKELY
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...LIMITING VISIBILITIES AT TIMES.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EASTERLY WINDS
AND SEAS INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE OUTER WATERS.
RAIN IS LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...LIMITING VISIBILITIES
AT TIMES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ230>234-236-
     250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...DOODY/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...RLG/SIPPRELL
MARINE...RLG/SIPPRELL




000
FXUS61 KBOX 040204
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1004 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOWARDS TUESDAY
MORNING...CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SOME
OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. DRY...WARM AND LESS
HUMID WEATHER ARRIVES WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY. A
PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE TIMING OF POTENTIAL WET WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...
WE CONTINUE TO WATCH BULK OF ACTIVE CONVECTION ROLL NW OF THE
REGION ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF WEAK
SHORTWAVES AND A PRE-FRONTAL TROF WHICH CONTINUES TO DIMINISH. THE
NEXT ROUND TO WATCH WILL BE THE DEVELOPING CONVECTION COLOCATED
WITH A SECONDARY TROF ACROSS PA AND SE NY. WITH THE MODIFIED EML
SETTLING FURTHER E AND INCREASING MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN
/SOMETHING WE WERE LACKING MOST OF THE DAY/...PLUS A SLIGHT UP-
TICK IN SHEAR WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS DEVELOPMENT AS IT MOVES E
INTO NY/SNE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SOME MESOSCALE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE TYPICAL RIGHT-TURN AS THE CONVECTION DIVES
S TOWARD BETTER INSTABILITY WHILE OTHERS LEAVE THE STEERING FLOW
IN CONTROL...TAKING IT ACROSS CT/SE MASS. HAVE INCREASED POPS IN
THIS AREA PRIMARILY WHILE LOWERING THEM SOMEWHAT ELSEWHERE. IT
WILL BE INTERESTING TO OBSERVE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOUR
CONVECTION SURVIVES WITH LITTLE SFC BASED SUPPORT.
OTHERWISE...MILD...MIN TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...

POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE WEATHER OUTCOMES INTO SE NEW ENGLAND TOWARDS
TUESDAY MORNING. FORECAST GUIDANCE CONSENSUS NOTES AN INSTABILITY
BURST ELEVATED AND MAINTAINED BY A S/SW WARM-MOIST PLUME OF HIGHER
THETA-E AIR ABOVE A SUBSEQUENT INVERSION. PWATS OF 1.50-1.75 INCHES.
ACTIVITY LOOKS TO ORIGINATE ALONG THE NOSE OF A H925-85 JET WITHIN A
H85-7 ENVIRONMENT OF 6-7C/KM LAPSE RATES. YET THERE IS A LACK OF
DEEP-LAYER FORCING AS THE BETTER AREA OF PVA / MID-LEVEL TROUGH /
SURFACE COLD FRONT REMAIN TO THE W.

THINKING IS THAT WE MAY SEE A WIDESPREAD AREA OF ACTIVITY OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS COLLOCATED WITH THE CONVERGENT LOW-LEVEL PLUME.
UNCERTAINTY IF ANY THUNDERSTORMS BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. HEAVY RAIN
LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT ALONG WITH LIGHTNING. THINKING LOW RISK
SEVERE AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE STORMS TO BECOME STRONG. WILL
SEE COLLOCATED UNI-DIRECTIONAL SW-NE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR EXCEEDING 40
KTS AND FREEZING LEVELS OF AROUND 11 KFT. SOME EVIDENCE OF TURNING
WITHIN THE 0-1/0-3 KM LAYER. SREF DOES DENOTE DECENT PROBABILITIES
OF INSTABILITY EXCEEDING 2K J/KG IN ADDITION TO THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHEAR AND TURNING ENVIRONMENT. THOUGH SREF PROBS NOT SO MUCH HELPFUL
WITH RESPECT TO PRECIP ACCUMULATIONS...THUS CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT
TO POSSIBLE FLOODING IS LOW DESPITE THE ANTICIPATED OUTCOMES THAT
WERE DISCUSSED ABOVE. WILL AVOID ENHANCED WORDING WITH THE FORECAST
FOR THE TIME BEING.

SHOULD BETTER FORCING AND VENTING ALOFT WITH THE H3 JET SHIFT E...
THERE WOULD BE GREATER IMPETUS UPON THE ENVIRONMENT TO GENERATE
GREATER AND LIKELY STRONGER CONVECTIVE WEATHER. INTERESTING AS TO
WHETHER CONVECTIVE REMNANTS W FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY SHIFT E AND
ACT AS A CRUX OF FORCING VIA LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. OVERALL
INDIVIDUAL MODELS CONTINUE TO WOBBLE AND THERE IS JUST AN UNDERLYING
LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY OTHER THAN THE FOCUS BEING ON SE NEW ENGLAND.
IT MAY BE QUIET THROUGHOUT AS THE PRESENT DRY SUBSIDING WEDGE OF
AIR ACROSS THE REGION MAINTAINS.

OTHERWISE SW-FLOW CONTINUES OVERNIGHT USHERING HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR
ACROSS INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND. SHOULD REMAIN BREEZY ALONG THE S/SE-
COAST. INCREASING CLOUD COVER SHOULD YIELD MILD LOW TEMPERATURES
AROUND THE MID- TO UPPER-60S AND MAY SUBSEQUENTLY LIMIT PATCHY DENSE
FOG TO JUST ACROSS S/SE NEW ENGLAND IN HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...

A COMBINATION OF RISING HEIGHTS WITHIN THE MID-LEVELS COMBINED WITH
DRIER AIR ALOFT COULD SUBDUE THE POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT.
BENEATH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT THRU WHICH ADDITIONAL MID-LEVEL IMPULSES
AND ACCOMPANYING JET-STREAKS RESIDE...THE OVERALL QUESTION IS AS TO
WHETHER A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CAN BECOME THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. SWEEPING THROUGH AN ENVIRONMENT OF ROBUST THETA-E
AIR AND INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF 2K J/KG IN WHICH LAPSE RATES ARE
STEEP ESPECIALLY H85-7 AND SHEAR PROFILES ARE MODERATE TO STRONG TO
50 KTS WITH SLIGHT TURNING WITHIN THE 0-1/0-3 KM PROFILE...THERE
APPEARS TO BE MECHANISMS FOR FORCING...BUT SHOULD MID-LEVEL RIDGING
PROCEED...THIS SEEMS TO SQUASH THE POSSIBILITY FOR CONVECTION. THERE
IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY THAT SHOULD ACTIVITY DEVELOP TOWARDS MORNING
OVER SE NEW ENGLAND AS NOTED EARLIER IT COULD SUBDUE THE ENVIRONMENT
FROM BECOMING CONVECTIVE /I.E. CLOUD COVER/. A VERY COMPLICATED
FORECAST.

BUT STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOMETHING POPPING
ACROSS THE INTERIOR. AM SOMEWHAT CONCERNED NOTING THE CIPS ANALOG
GUIDANCE IN WHERE SEVERAL OF THE ANALOGS WITNESSED SUBSTANTIAL WIND
AND HAIL IMPACTS OVER N- AND W-PORTIONS OF S NEW ENGLAND. THE STRONG
TO SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS SEEMINGLY THERE THOUGH THERE IS SOME
LEVEL OF DOUBT. EVEN SPC WILL WAIT ON HOW THE ENVIRONMENT DEVELOPS
WITH RESPECT TO THEIR CONVECTIVE WEATHER OUTLOOKS...WHETHER THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL DESTABILIZE. CAN NOT RULE IT OUT COMPLETELY AND
WILL PREPARE FOR THE POTENTIAL ACCORDINGLY. FOCUS OF A HEAVY RAIN
THREAT ALONG WITH POTENTIAL HAIL AND STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND
POSSIBILITIES. CAN NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A TORNADO. BUT
NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME TO GO WITH ENHANCED WORDING IN
THE FORECAST.

WHILE FORECAST GUIDANCE SEEMS MIXED WITH AN UNCERTAIN EVOLUTION OF
SYNOPTICS...THERE IS GREATER CONFIDENCE OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY AROUND THE VICINITY OF SE NEW ENGLAND AND ADJACENT WATERS
WHERE THE SW-NE PLUME OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR RESIDES AS WELL AS BOTH
A STRONGER AND CONVERGENT SW-NE H925-85 WIND PROFILE. WOULD EXPECT A
CONTINUATION BEGINNING IN THE MORNING AS OUTLINED IN THE EARLIER
DISCUSSION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH
ALSO COULD BE STRONG AND POSSIBLY SEVERE.

OVERALL...A MILD AND MUGGY DAY WITH HIGHS INTO THE MID- TO UPPER-80S
AS DEWPOINTS RANGE AROUND THE MID- TO UPPER-60S.

TUESDAY NIGHT...

FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THE HIGHER THETA-E / INSTABILITY OUT TO SEA
INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SO ANTICIPATING A DRYING TREND. W-FLOW
PROCEEDING USHERING LOWER DEWPOINT AIR ACROSS THE INTERIOR. AS
CONDITIONS GRADUALLY CLEAR...TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE LOW- TO MID-
60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE AROUND FRIDAY
* TEMPERATURES TRENDING BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD

OVERALL...THE MODELS HAVE RATHER POOR AGREEMENT ON THE GENERAL
PATTERN AND TIMING THROUGH THE LONG TERM. IN SOME TIME PERIODS IT
SEEMS THAT THE GFS MAY JUST BE SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF. IN OTHERS...
THEY ARE JUST COMPLETELY DIFFERENT. THE ENSEMBLES ARE NOT MUCH
HELP IN THAT THE ECMWF ENSEMBLES LOOK VERY SIMILAR TO THE OPERATIONAL
MODEL AND THE GEFS IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE GFS. BASICALLY HAVE TWO
FAIRLY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM. HOWEVER...
GENERAL TRENDS ARE SIMILAR. LOOKING AT A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK.

WEDNESDAY...LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL. DESPITE THE POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES AS A
SHORTWAVE PUSHES INTO THE REGION...EXPECT MUCH OF THE DAY AND MUCH
OF THE AREA TO REMAIN DRY.

THURSDAY...MUCH OF THE DAY LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE AREA. THIS IS ONE OF THOSE TIMES THE TIMING IS
OFF BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS. THE ECMWF IS QUICK TO MOVE THE
HIGH PRESSURE OUT OF THE REGION...PUSHED BY LOW PRESSURE MOVING
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE GFS KEEPS THAT
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE LOW PRESSURE IN
THE GREAT LAKES.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THIS LOOKS TO BE THE MOST
UNSETTLED TIME WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
THEN POSSIBLY UP THE EAST COAST OVER THE 40/70 BENCHMARK SOUTHEAST
OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE ECMWF IS THE MOST BULLISH WITH THIS...
TRACKING THE LOW DIRECTLY OVER THE BENCHMARK AND BRINGING AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN TO MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE GFS
DEVELOPS SOME SORT OF BOUNDARY ALONG WHICH SEVERAL AREAS OF LOW
PRESSURE TRAVEL...BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN TO THE REGION. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE A GIVEN WITH LOWERING HEIGHTS/TEMPS ALOFT
AND MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES FOR MUCH OF THIS TIME.
WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE TEMPS TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S ON FRIDAY.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MUCH OF THIS FORECAST WILL DEPEND ON HOW FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY SHAKE OUT...BUT IN GENERAL THE WEATHER LOOKS DRIER AND
QUIETER WITH REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SW-WINDS. SCT -SHRA SWEEP FROM THE W AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE
OVER SE TERMINALS TOWARDS MORNING WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF TSRA /
+RA AND LOWERING CIGS TO MVFR. PATCHY FOG. VFR ELSEWHERE.

TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
SW-WINDS GUSTY AT TIMES 20-25 KTS. SCT SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE OVER THE
INTERIOR THOUGH BETTER CHANCES OVER SE NEW ENGLAND INTO EVENING.
OTHER THAN MVFR LINGERING OVER SE TERMINALS DURING THE MORNING...
TEMPO MVFR-IFR POSSIBLE WITH ANY WEATHER.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS BACK W WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. TERMINALS CLEAR OUT W TO E.
PREVAILING VFR WITH MVFR CIGS LINGERING OVER SE TERMINALS TOWARDS
MORNING.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP
ACROSS THE TERMINAL TOWARDS TUESDAY MORNING.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. LOW PROBABILITY
OF A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS NW MA WEDNESDAY. ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP MAY HAVE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING...HIGHER
CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS.  MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN WIDESPREAD RAIN LIKELY
SOMETIME DURING THIS PERIOD.  VFR BEFORE AND AFTER PERIOD OF RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SW-WINDS CONTINUE WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS...STRONGER OVER THE S-
WATERS AT 25 KTS. WAVES BUILDING TO 5 FEET. PERHAPS SOME PATCHY
FOG ISSUES. INCREASING AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDER- STORMS TOWARDS MORNING. STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SW-WINDS WITH GUSTS 20-25 KTS. WAVES AT 5-6 FEET. CONTINUED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH SOME OF THOSE STORMS BEING
STRONG TO SEVERE.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SW-WINDS BACKING W THROUGH THE NIGHT. GUSTS SUBSIDING. WAVES AT
5-6 FEET. SHOWER / THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONCLUDE W TO E TOWARDS
MORNING.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW 5 FEET EXPECTED. RAIN IS LIKELY
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...LIMITING VISIBILITIES AT TIMES.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EASTERLY WINDS
AND SEAS INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE OUTER WATERS.
RAIN IS LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...LIMITING VISIBILITIES
AT TIMES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ230>234-236-
     250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...DOODY/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...RLG/SIPPRELL
MARINE...RLG/SIPPRELL



000
FXUS61 KOKX 040201
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1001 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH OVERNIGHT THEN STALL
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY. THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY
AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
THE COLD FRONT WAS VERY SLOW TO MOVE...AND REMAINS NEAR THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN SCATTERED TO ISOLATED AND HAVE ADJUSTED
POPS DOWN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY WITH A
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. VERY LITTLE
APPRECIABLE DIFFERENCE WILL BE FELT WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING
ABOVE NORMAL AND SIMILAR HUMIDITY AS MONDAY. LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
THE UPPER TROUGH BUILDS FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST...FORCING THE
ATTENDANT SURFACE FRONT FARTHER OFFSHORE WITH LOWER DEW POINTS
ADVECTING INTO THE REGION. A SUBSEQUENT DECREASE IN HUMIDITY WILL
BE FELT AS THIS OCCURS. BY MORNING...THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAINLY BE
CONFINED TO THE OFFSHORE WATERS.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE
OCEAN BEACHES THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.
A RIP CURRENT STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE OFFSHORE WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER
THE AREA INTO THURSDAY.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEPARTS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH SURFACE LOW OVER THE MID-
WEST TREKKING EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AFFECTING THE AREA MAINLY
FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THERE
IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE IT TRACKS AND THEREFORE HOW MUCH RAIN
WE DO RECEIVE. HOWEVER...IT DOES APPEAR MORE CERTAIN THAT A
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN EVENT IS IN STORE FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.

ISENTROPIC LIFT OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW NOTED IN BOTH THE
12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF...MAINLY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...SO THINKING
THIS WILL BE MORE STRATIFORM RAIN. SURFACE LOW CONTINUES ITS
APPROACH FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS DIFFER IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW.
THE 12Z ECMWF AND 12Z GFS AGREE WITH THE LOW BEING OVER THE NORTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC STATES BY 06Z SATURDAY. THEREAFTER...MODELS DIFFER
QUITE A BIT IN THEIR SOLUTIONS. 12Z ECMWF TREKS THE LOW NORTHEAST IN
SIDE THE 40/70 BENCHMARK THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY WHILE IT SLOWLY
STRENGTHENS WHILE THE GFS WEAKENS THE LOW OVER THE OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OFFSHORE AND WEAKER WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG
IT...WHILE THE 12Z CANADIAN IS AN OUTLIER BEING MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN
THE OTHER MODELS. THEREFORE...SIDED MORE ALONG THE LINES OF THE GFS
AND ECMWF AND KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY

LOW PRESSURE PUSHES AWAY FROM THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS.

OUTSIDE OF FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SEASONABLE FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. RAIN AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN ON FRIDAY...NOT
MAKING IT OUT OF THE 70S REGION-WIDE. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES MAY
PROVE TO BE A BIT LOWER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MOST OF THE SHRA/TSRA THAT WERE APPROACHING THE LOCAL AIRSPACE
HAVE TAPERED OFF AND BECOME ISOLATED. WILL GO AHEAD AND REMOVE
MENTION OF TSRA THIS EVENING FROM THE TAFS.

COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND WILL PASS
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. WILL TEMPO TSRA FOR A FEW HOURS DURING THE
LATE NIGHT HOURS...FROM 06-09Z OVER FAR WESTERN TERMINALS TO
08-11Z OVER MOST EASTERN TERMINALS. WILL LEAVE OUT OF KGON FOR
NOW...AS IT IS HARD TO TELL IF TSRA WILL MAKE IT THERE.

SOUTH WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 5-10 KT THIS EVENING. AFTER FRONTAL
PASSAGE...WINDS SHIFT TO THE SW AND INCREASE TO 8-12 KT. GRADIENT
TIGHTENS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LOCAL SEA BREEZES POSSIBLE AT COASTAL
TERMINALS.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: BEST CHANCES FOR TSRA WILL BE AFT 07Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: BEST CHANCES FOR TSRA WILL BE AFT 07Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: BEST CHANCES FOR TSRA WILL BE AFT 06Z.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: BEST CHANCES FOR TSRA WILL BE AFT 06Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: BEST CHANCES FOR TSRA WILL BE AFT 07Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: BEST CHANCES FOR TSRA WILL BE AFT 08Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WED THROUGH SAT...
.TUE NIGHT...SLGT CHC FOR TSTMS MAINLY CSTL TERMINALS IN THE
EVENING. BECOMING VFR OVERNIGHT. SW FLOW BECOMING NW OVERNIGHT.
.WED-THU...VFR. GENERALLY W FLOW.
.FRI...MVFR OR LOWER IN RAIN. WINDS BECOMING NE.
.SAT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN RAIN. NE WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECAST ON TRACK...NO UPDATES AT THIS TIME.

WINDS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL REMAIN STRONG INTO LATE TONIGHT
BEFORE LIGHTENING WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT.

OCEAN SEAS BUILD DUE TO THE INCREASE IN THESE WINDS. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ON THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY EVENING.

OCEAN SEAS WILL BE SUBSIDING TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT 5 FT SEAS MAY
LINGER ON THE EASTERN OCEAN UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY WITH SUB SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MAY PASS OVER
THE WATERS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. OCCASIONAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY WITH SUB SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LOW PRESSURE MAY PASS OVER OR NEAR THE WATERS
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
OCCASIONAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY ON
THE OCEAN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A TENTH TO A QUARTER INCH OF BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY
HEAVIER THUNDERSTORMS.

A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN WHERE AND WHEN THE
HEAVIEST OF THE RAIN WILL FALL. ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD
LIMIT FLOODING POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 6 AM EDT TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ075-080-081-178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MD/JP
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...MD
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...MET
HYDROLOGY...MD/JP



000
FXUS61 KOKX 040201
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1001 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH OVERNIGHT THEN STALL
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY. THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY
AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
THE COLD FRONT WAS VERY SLOW TO MOVE...AND REMAINS NEAR THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN SCATTERED TO ISOLATED AND HAVE ADJUSTED
POPS DOWN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY WITH A
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. VERY LITTLE
APPRECIABLE DIFFERENCE WILL BE FELT WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING
ABOVE NORMAL AND SIMILAR HUMIDITY AS MONDAY. LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
THE UPPER TROUGH BUILDS FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST...FORCING THE
ATTENDANT SURFACE FRONT FARTHER OFFSHORE WITH LOWER DEW POINTS
ADVECTING INTO THE REGION. A SUBSEQUENT DECREASE IN HUMIDITY WILL
BE FELT AS THIS OCCURS. BY MORNING...THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAINLY BE
CONFINED TO THE OFFSHORE WATERS.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE
OCEAN BEACHES THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.
A RIP CURRENT STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE OFFSHORE WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER
THE AREA INTO THURSDAY.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEPARTS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH SURFACE LOW OVER THE MID-
WEST TREKKING EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AFFECTING THE AREA MAINLY
FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THERE
IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE IT TRACKS AND THEREFORE HOW MUCH RAIN
WE DO RECEIVE. HOWEVER...IT DOES APPEAR MORE CERTAIN THAT A
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN EVENT IS IN STORE FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.

ISENTROPIC LIFT OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW NOTED IN BOTH THE
12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF...MAINLY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...SO THINKING
THIS WILL BE MORE STRATIFORM RAIN. SURFACE LOW CONTINUES ITS
APPROACH FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS DIFFER IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW.
THE 12Z ECMWF AND 12Z GFS AGREE WITH THE LOW BEING OVER THE NORTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC STATES BY 06Z SATURDAY. THEREAFTER...MODELS DIFFER
QUITE A BIT IN THEIR SOLUTIONS. 12Z ECMWF TREKS THE LOW NORTHEAST IN
SIDE THE 40/70 BENCHMARK THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY WHILE IT SLOWLY
STRENGTHENS WHILE THE GFS WEAKENS THE LOW OVER THE OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OFFSHORE AND WEAKER WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG
IT...WHILE THE 12Z CANADIAN IS AN OUTLIER BEING MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN
THE OTHER MODELS. THEREFORE...SIDED MORE ALONG THE LINES OF THE GFS
AND ECMWF AND KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY

LOW PRESSURE PUSHES AWAY FROM THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS.

OUTSIDE OF FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SEASONABLE FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. RAIN AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN ON FRIDAY...NOT
MAKING IT OUT OF THE 70S REGION-WIDE. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES MAY
PROVE TO BE A BIT LOWER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MOST OF THE SHRA/TSRA THAT WERE APPROACHING THE LOCAL AIRSPACE
HAVE TAPERED OFF AND BECOME ISOLATED. WILL GO AHEAD AND REMOVE
MENTION OF TSRA THIS EVENING FROM THE TAFS.

COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND WILL PASS
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. WILL TEMPO TSRA FOR A FEW HOURS DURING THE
LATE NIGHT HOURS...FROM 06-09Z OVER FAR WESTERN TERMINALS TO
08-11Z OVER MOST EASTERN TERMINALS. WILL LEAVE OUT OF KGON FOR
NOW...AS IT IS HARD TO TELL IF TSRA WILL MAKE IT THERE.

SOUTH WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 5-10 KT THIS EVENING. AFTER FRONTAL
PASSAGE...WINDS SHIFT TO THE SW AND INCREASE TO 8-12 KT. GRADIENT
TIGHTENS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LOCAL SEA BREEZES POSSIBLE AT COASTAL
TERMINALS.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: BEST CHANCES FOR TSRA WILL BE AFT 07Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: BEST CHANCES FOR TSRA WILL BE AFT 07Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: BEST CHANCES FOR TSRA WILL BE AFT 06Z.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: BEST CHANCES FOR TSRA WILL BE AFT 06Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: BEST CHANCES FOR TSRA WILL BE AFT 07Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: BEST CHANCES FOR TSRA WILL BE AFT 08Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WED THROUGH SAT...
.TUE NIGHT...SLGT CHC FOR TSTMS MAINLY CSTL TERMINALS IN THE
EVENING. BECOMING VFR OVERNIGHT. SW FLOW BECOMING NW OVERNIGHT.
.WED-THU...VFR. GENERALLY W FLOW.
.FRI...MVFR OR LOWER IN RAIN. WINDS BECOMING NE.
.SAT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN RAIN. NE WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECAST ON TRACK...NO UPDATES AT THIS TIME.

WINDS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL REMAIN STRONG INTO LATE TONIGHT
BEFORE LIGHTENING WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT.

OCEAN SEAS BUILD DUE TO THE INCREASE IN THESE WINDS. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ON THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY EVENING.

OCEAN SEAS WILL BE SUBSIDING TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT 5 FT SEAS MAY
LINGER ON THE EASTERN OCEAN UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY WITH SUB SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MAY PASS OVER
THE WATERS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. OCCASIONAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY WITH SUB SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LOW PRESSURE MAY PASS OVER OR NEAR THE WATERS
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
OCCASIONAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY ON
THE OCEAN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A TENTH TO A QUARTER INCH OF BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY
HEAVIER THUNDERSTORMS.

A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN WHERE AND WHEN THE
HEAVIEST OF THE RAIN WILL FALL. ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD
LIMIT FLOODING POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 6 AM EDT TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ075-080-081-178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MD/JP
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...MD
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...MET
HYDROLOGY...MD/JP




000
FXUS61 KALY 040026
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
826 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE
STILL COULD BE ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL LINGER OVER QUEBEC THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK...BRINGING COOLER AIR INTO OUR REGION...AND TRIGGERING
SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY NORTH OF I90 AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

AS OF 730 PM EDT...WE ARE STILL DEALING WITH WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ONE CELL IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY LOOKED STRONG
TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE SO A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING WAS ISSUED
ON THAT CELL.

THESE WERE TIED INTO A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH...SLOWLY EXISTING THE
REGION BUT A COLD FRONT STILL WELL TO OUR WEST. INSTABILTY  STILL
WAS AROUND 1000 J/KG...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.5 C/KM AND
0-6KM BULK SHEAR WAS CLOSE TO 40 KTS. THESE INGREDIENTS ARE JUST
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LOCALLY STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR AT
LEAST A COUPLE MORE HOURS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ADDITIONAL NON SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
COULD LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS...DIMINISHING AROUND OR A
LITTLE AFTER MIDNIGHT...EXCEPT SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY...WHERE
THE THREAT MIGHT LINGER AWHILE LONGER AS THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES.

SOME STRATUS MIGHT FORM THE RESULT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVERNIGHT
AND JUST ENOUGH WIND TO LIFT ANY FOG INTO A STRATUS DECK.

LEFT OVERNIGHT LOWS ALONE...AS THEY DIP BACK INTO THE 60S...WITH
SOME UPPER 50S NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. IT WILL STILL
BE SOMEWHAT MUGGY WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY AVERAGING AROUND 60.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 730 PM EDT...WE ARE STILL DEALING WITH WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ONE CELL IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY LOOKED STRONG
TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE SO A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING WAS ISSUED
ON THAT CELL.

THESE WERE TIED INTO A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH...SLOWLY EXISTING THE
REGION BUT A COLD FRONT STILL WELL TO OUR WEST. INSTABILTY  STILL
WAS AROUND 1000 J/KG...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.5 C/KM AND
0-6KM BULK SHEAR WAS CLOSE TO 40 KTS. THESE INGREDIENTS ARE JUST
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LOCALLY STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR AT
LEAST A COUPLE MORE HOURS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ADDITIONAL NON SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
COULD LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS...DIMINISHING AROUND OR A
LITTLE AFTER MIDNIGHT...EXCEPT SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY...WHERE
THE THREAT MIGHT LINGER AWHILE LONGER AS THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES.

SOME STRATUS MIGHT FORM THE RESULT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVERNIGHT
AND JUST ENOUGH WIND TO LIFT ANY FOG INTO A STRATUS DECK.

LEFT OVERNIGHT LOWS ALONE...AS THEY DIP BACK INTO THE 60S...WITH
SOME UPPER 50S NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. IT WILL STILL
BE SOMEWHAT MUGGY WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY AVERAGING AROUND 60.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR WRN NEW ENGLAND BY
DAYBREAK. THE SFC DEWPT BOUNDARY WILL STILL BE PROGRESSING EAST
ACROSS ERN NY. THE NAM IS ADVERTISING ALOT OF INSTABILITY FOR TUE
WITH A DEEPLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THE GFS HAS LESS AGAIN...BUT
THERE IS A SMALL AREA OF HIGH INSTABILITY FROM THE THE MASS PIKE
SOUTH AND EAST INTO NW CT. SPC DOES HAVE LITCHFIELD CTY CLIPPED BY
THE MARGINAL RISK. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE AROUND 6.5C/KM
WITH ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR SOME STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL /NO ENHANCED WORDING YET/...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST. LOW- LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING
DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE PM. DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS OFF THE
ERN CATSKILLS/ERN DACKS MAY ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO GET INTO THE MID
AND U80S IN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION. EXPECT M70S TO
L80S IN MOST OTHER LOCATIONS...EXCEPT OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN
GREENS WHERE SOME U60S TO L70S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE COLD ADVECTION
REGIME...AS H850 TEMPS LOWER TO +10C TO +16C FROM NW TO SE OVER
THE FCST AREA BY THE LATE PM. A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SUNSET.

TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL HEATING THE SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY. THE ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS MAY LINGER THE LONGEST OVER THE SRN DACKS. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60F WITH SOME U40S TO L50S
OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN GREENS. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE QUITE
COMFORTABLE.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE FCST AREA WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER S-CNTRL QUEBEC. IN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW ANOTHER PIECE OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY WILL SWING ACROSS UPSTATE
NY AND NEW ENGLAND. THE BEST CHC OF ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS DUE TO THE
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. H500 TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -15C TO -18C FROM ALY
NORTH AND WEST. THE H500 HEIGHTS ARE ABOUT 2-3 STD DEVS BELOW
NORMAL BASED ON THE LATEST GEFS FOR WED. H850 TEMPS WILL BE 1-2
STD DEVS BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS ON WED WILL BE IN THE M60S TO L70S
OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS...WITH A FEW 80F
READINGS NEAR KPOU. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR COOL NIGHT FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF AUG...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE U40S TO M50S OVER
THE FCST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RETURN TO MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THIS
PERIOD...AND IS EXPECTED TO LAST.  HOWEVER...WEAK DISTURBANCES
INTERMINGLED WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MEAN RATHER SMALL CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS ON SOME DAYS...PARTICULARLY THE MORE SOUTHERN ZONES...
WHICH WILL BE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO A QUASI-STATIONARY MID-ATLANTIC
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  IF ANYTHING...THE LATTER PORTION OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO HAVE THE DRIEST CONDITIONS...GOOD NEWS FOR
WEEKENDERS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S...AND LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE 50S WILL BE EXTREMELY COMMON...WITH LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY VARIATION.
THE NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS AT ALBANY...RESPECTIVELY...ARE IN THE
LOWER 80S AND LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THERE IS STILL THE POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION DIRECTLY IMPACTING
THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. FOR NOW...WE FELT THE
BEST THREAT WAS ALL THE SITES BUT KPOU...SO INCLUDED TEMPOS FOR AN
HOUR OR SO AT ALL THE TAFS BUT KPOU FOR A THUNDERSTORM AND MVFR
CONDITIONS.

OTHERWISE...WE ARE LOOKING MAINLY AT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. AFTER THAT...WE WILL CONTINUE WITH IFR FOG AT KGFL AFTER
08Z...MVFR FOG AND PERHAPS MVFR STRATUS AT THE OTHER SITES.

WE DISSIPATE ALL FOG BY 12Z. THAT IS ABOUT THE TIME THE REAL COLD
FRONT WILL ACTUALLY BEGIN TO WORK ACROSS THE TAF SITES.

THE FRONT DOES NOT LOOK TO BE ALL THAT ACTIVE...BUT FOR NOW...DID
INCLUDE A VCSH AT KGFL AFTER 17Z. FOR NOW DID NOT INCLUDE ANY VCSH
AT THE OTHER TAF SITES. A THUNDERSTORM IS REMOTELY POSSIBLE AT ANY
OF THE TAF SITES MIDDAY OR AFTERNOON.

THE WIND WILL BE GENERALLY BE SOUTH 5-10KTS THIS EVENING...A
LITTLE LIGHTER OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. A SOUTH
WIND WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST TO WEST BY MIDDAY TUESDAY...AVERAGING
AROUND 10KTS...WITH GUSTS CLOSER TO 20 KTS.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WED NITE-THU NITE: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI-FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTAIN SOME HAIL GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.

AN UPPER LEVEL COULD GENERATE AN ADDITIONAL SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION ON TUESDAY.

OTHERWISE LOOK FOR A REDUCTION IN HEAT AND HUMIDITY...ESPECIALLY
ON WEDNESDAY. WITH A COLD POOL ALOFT AN ADDITIONAL  SHOWER IS
REMOTELY POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY BUT OTHERWISE IT IS DRY.

THE RH VALUES INCREASE TO 75 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH
VALUES WILL LOWER TO 35 TO 55 PERCENT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

SOUTH WIND WILL BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT. THE WIND WILL BECOME
WEST TO SOUTHWEST 5 TO 15 MPH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEST TO
NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH ON WEDNESDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR A WETTING RAIN WILL BE FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING...SOME OF
WHICH HAVE CONTAINED VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS (LOCALIZED TWO INCH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS). HOWEVER...RIVER BASIN AVERAGES WILL BE CLOSER
TO A QUARTER INCH. OTHER THAN THE USUAL LOCALIZED PONDING OF
WATER...THERE SHOULD NOT BE MUCH IF ANY RESPONSE ON ANY OF THE
SIGNIFICANT CREEKS OR RIVERS ACROSS THE REGION.

MORE WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. LITTLE OR NO HYDRO
PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE AT THIS TIME.

MAINLY DRY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

THEN...A MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN IS POSSIBLE FOR FRIDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/BGM/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 040026
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
826 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE
STILL COULD BE ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL LINGER OVER QUEBEC THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK...BRINGING COOLER AIR INTO OUR REGION...AND TRIGGERING
SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY NORTH OF I90 AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

AS OF 730 PM EDT...WE ARE STILL DEALING WITH WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ONE CELL IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY LOOKED STRONG
TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE SO A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING WAS ISSUED
ON THAT CELL.

THESE WERE TIED INTO A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH...SLOWLY EXISTING THE
REGION BUT A COLD FRONT STILL WELL TO OUR WEST. INSTABILTY  STILL
WAS AROUND 1000 J/KG...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.5 C/KM AND
0-6KM BULK SHEAR WAS CLOSE TO 40 KTS. THESE INGREDIENTS ARE JUST
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LOCALLY STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR AT
LEAST A COUPLE MORE HOURS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ADDITIONAL NON SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
COULD LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS...DIMINISHING AROUND OR A
LITTLE AFTER MIDNIGHT...EXCEPT SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY...WHERE
THE THREAT MIGHT LINGER AWHILE LONGER AS THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES.

SOME STRATUS MIGHT FORM THE RESULT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVERNIGHT
AND JUST ENOUGH WIND TO LIFT ANY FOG INTO A STRATUS DECK.

LEFT OVERNIGHT LOWS ALONE...AS THEY DIP BACK INTO THE 60S...WITH
SOME UPPER 50S NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. IT WILL STILL
BE SOMEWHAT MUGGY WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY AVERAGING AROUND 60.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 730 PM EDT...WE ARE STILL DEALING WITH WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ONE CELL IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY LOOKED STRONG
TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE SO A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING WAS ISSUED
ON THAT CELL.

THESE WERE TIED INTO A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH...SLOWLY EXISTING THE
REGION BUT A COLD FRONT STILL WELL TO OUR WEST. INSTABILTY  STILL
WAS AROUND 1000 J/KG...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.5 C/KM AND
0-6KM BULK SHEAR WAS CLOSE TO 40 KTS. THESE INGREDIENTS ARE JUST
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LOCALLY STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR AT
LEAST A COUPLE MORE HOURS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ADDITIONAL NON SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
COULD LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS...DIMINISHING AROUND OR A
LITTLE AFTER MIDNIGHT...EXCEPT SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY...WHERE
THE THREAT MIGHT LINGER AWHILE LONGER AS THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES.

SOME STRATUS MIGHT FORM THE RESULT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVERNIGHT
AND JUST ENOUGH WIND TO LIFT ANY FOG INTO A STRATUS DECK.

LEFT OVERNIGHT LOWS ALONE...AS THEY DIP BACK INTO THE 60S...WITH
SOME UPPER 50S NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. IT WILL STILL
BE SOMEWHAT MUGGY WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY AVERAGING AROUND 60.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR WRN NEW ENGLAND BY
DAYBREAK. THE SFC DEWPT BOUNDARY WILL STILL BE PROGRESSING EAST
ACROSS ERN NY. THE NAM IS ADVERTISING ALOT OF INSTABILITY FOR TUE
WITH A DEEPLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THE GFS HAS LESS AGAIN...BUT
THERE IS A SMALL AREA OF HIGH INSTABILITY FROM THE THE MASS PIKE
SOUTH AND EAST INTO NW CT. SPC DOES HAVE LITCHFIELD CTY CLIPPED BY
THE MARGINAL RISK. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE AROUND 6.5C/KM
WITH ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR SOME STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL /NO ENHANCED WORDING YET/...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST. LOW- LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING
DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE PM. DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS OFF THE
ERN CATSKILLS/ERN DACKS MAY ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO GET INTO THE MID
AND U80S IN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION. EXPECT M70S TO
L80S IN MOST OTHER LOCATIONS...EXCEPT OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN
GREENS WHERE SOME U60S TO L70S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE COLD ADVECTION
REGIME...AS H850 TEMPS LOWER TO +10C TO +16C FROM NW TO SE OVER
THE FCST AREA BY THE LATE PM. A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SUNSET.

TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL HEATING THE SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY. THE ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS MAY LINGER THE LONGEST OVER THE SRN DACKS. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60F WITH SOME U40S TO L50S
OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN GREENS. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE QUITE
COMFORTABLE.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE FCST AREA WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER S-CNTRL QUEBEC. IN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW ANOTHER PIECE OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY WILL SWING ACROSS UPSTATE
NY AND NEW ENGLAND. THE BEST CHC OF ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS DUE TO THE
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. H500 TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -15C TO -18C FROM ALY
NORTH AND WEST. THE H500 HEIGHTS ARE ABOUT 2-3 STD DEVS BELOW
NORMAL BASED ON THE LATEST GEFS FOR WED. H850 TEMPS WILL BE 1-2
STD DEVS BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS ON WED WILL BE IN THE M60S TO L70S
OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS...WITH A FEW 80F
READINGS NEAR KPOU. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR COOL NIGHT FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF AUG...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE U40S TO M50S OVER
THE FCST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RETURN TO MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THIS
PERIOD...AND IS EXPECTED TO LAST.  HOWEVER...WEAK DISTURBANCES
INTERMINGLED WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MEAN RATHER SMALL CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS ON SOME DAYS...PARTICULARLY THE MORE SOUTHERN ZONES...
WHICH WILL BE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO A QUASI-STATIONARY MID-ATLANTIC
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  IF ANYTHING...THE LATTER PORTION OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO HAVE THE DRIEST CONDITIONS...GOOD NEWS FOR
WEEKENDERS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S...AND LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE 50S WILL BE EXTREMELY COMMON...WITH LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY VARIATION.
THE NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS AT ALBANY...RESPECTIVELY...ARE IN THE
LOWER 80S AND LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THERE IS STILL THE POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION DIRECTLY IMPACTING
THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. FOR NOW...WE FELT THE
BEST THREAT WAS ALL THE SITES BUT KPOU...SO INCLUDED TEMPOS FOR AN
HOUR OR SO AT ALL THE TAFS BUT KPOU FOR A THUNDERSTORM AND MVFR
CONDITIONS.

OTHERWISE...WE ARE LOOKING MAINLY AT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. AFTER THAT...WE WILL CONTINUE WITH IFR FOG AT KGFL AFTER
08Z...MVFR FOG AND PERHAPS MVFR STRATUS AT THE OTHER SITES.

WE DISSIPATE ALL FOG BY 12Z. THAT IS ABOUT THE TIME THE REAL COLD
FRONT WILL ACTUALLY BEGIN TO WORK ACROSS THE TAF SITES.

THE FRONT DOES NOT LOOK TO BE ALL THAT ACTIVE...BUT FOR NOW...DID
INCLUDE A VCSH AT KGFL AFTER 17Z. FOR NOW DID NOT INCLUDE ANY VCSH
AT THE OTHER TAF SITES. A THUNDERSTORM IS REMOTELY POSSIBLE AT ANY
OF THE TAF SITES MIDDAY OR AFTERNOON.

THE WIND WILL BE GENERALLY BE SOUTH 5-10KTS THIS EVENING...A
LITTLE LIGHTER OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. A SOUTH
WIND WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST TO WEST BY MIDDAY TUESDAY...AVERAGING
AROUND 10KTS...WITH GUSTS CLOSER TO 20 KTS.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WED NITE-THU NITE: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI-FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTAIN SOME HAIL GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.

AN UPPER LEVEL COULD GENERATE AN ADDITIONAL SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION ON TUESDAY.

OTHERWISE LOOK FOR A REDUCTION IN HEAT AND HUMIDITY...ESPECIALLY
ON WEDNESDAY. WITH A COLD POOL ALOFT AN ADDITIONAL  SHOWER IS
REMOTELY POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY BUT OTHERWISE IT IS DRY.

THE RH VALUES INCREASE TO 75 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH
VALUES WILL LOWER TO 35 TO 55 PERCENT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

SOUTH WIND WILL BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT. THE WIND WILL BECOME
WEST TO SOUTHWEST 5 TO 15 MPH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEST TO
NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH ON WEDNESDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR A WETTING RAIN WILL BE FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING...SOME OF
WHICH HAVE CONTAINED VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS (LOCALIZED TWO INCH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS). HOWEVER...RIVER BASIN AVERAGES WILL BE CLOSER
TO A QUARTER INCH. OTHER THAN THE USUAL LOCALIZED PONDING OF
WATER...THERE SHOULD NOT BE MUCH IF ANY RESPONSE ON ANY OF THE
SIGNIFICANT CREEKS OR RIVERS ACROSS THE REGION.

MORE WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. LITTLE OR NO HYDRO
PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE AT THIS TIME.

MAINLY DRY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

THEN...A MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN IS POSSIBLE FOR FRIDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/BGM/WASULA



000
FXUS61 KALY 040026
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
826 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE
STILL COULD BE ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL LINGER OVER QUEBEC THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK...BRINGING COOLER AIR INTO OUR REGION...AND TRIGGERING
SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY NORTH OF I90 AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

AS OF 730 PM EDT...WE ARE STILL DEALING WITH WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ONE CELL IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY LOOKED STRONG
TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE SO A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING WAS ISSUED
ON THAT CELL.

THESE WERE TIED INTO A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH...SLOWLY EXISTING THE
REGION BUT A COLD FRONT STILL WELL TO OUR WEST. INSTABILTY  STILL
WAS AROUND 1000 J/KG...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.5 C/KM AND
0-6KM BULK SHEAR WAS CLOSE TO 40 KTS. THESE INGREDIENTS ARE JUST
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LOCALLY STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR AT
LEAST A COUPLE MORE HOURS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ADDITIONAL NON SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
COULD LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS...DIMINISHING AROUND OR A
LITTLE AFTER MIDNIGHT...EXCEPT SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY...WHERE
THE THREAT MIGHT LINGER AWHILE LONGER AS THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES.

SOME STRATUS MIGHT FORM THE RESULT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVERNIGHT
AND JUST ENOUGH WIND TO LIFT ANY FOG INTO A STRATUS DECK.

LEFT OVERNIGHT LOWS ALONE...AS THEY DIP BACK INTO THE 60S...WITH
SOME UPPER 50S NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. IT WILL STILL
BE SOMEWHAT MUGGY WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY AVERAGING AROUND 60.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 730 PM EDT...WE ARE STILL DEALING WITH WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ONE CELL IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY LOOKED STRONG
TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE SO A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING WAS ISSUED
ON THAT CELL.

THESE WERE TIED INTO A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH...SLOWLY EXISTING THE
REGION BUT A COLD FRONT STILL WELL TO OUR WEST. INSTABILTY  STILL
WAS AROUND 1000 J/KG...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.5 C/KM AND
0-6KM BULK SHEAR WAS CLOSE TO 40 KTS. THESE INGREDIENTS ARE JUST
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LOCALLY STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR AT
LEAST A COUPLE MORE HOURS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ADDITIONAL NON SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
COULD LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS...DIMINISHING AROUND OR A
LITTLE AFTER MIDNIGHT...EXCEPT SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY...WHERE
THE THREAT MIGHT LINGER AWHILE LONGER AS THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES.

SOME STRATUS MIGHT FORM THE RESULT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVERNIGHT
AND JUST ENOUGH WIND TO LIFT ANY FOG INTO A STRATUS DECK.

LEFT OVERNIGHT LOWS ALONE...AS THEY DIP BACK INTO THE 60S...WITH
SOME UPPER 50S NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. IT WILL STILL
BE SOMEWHAT MUGGY WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY AVERAGING AROUND 60.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR WRN NEW ENGLAND BY
DAYBREAK. THE SFC DEWPT BOUNDARY WILL STILL BE PROGRESSING EAST
ACROSS ERN NY. THE NAM IS ADVERTISING ALOT OF INSTABILITY FOR TUE
WITH A DEEPLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THE GFS HAS LESS AGAIN...BUT
THERE IS A SMALL AREA OF HIGH INSTABILITY FROM THE THE MASS PIKE
SOUTH AND EAST INTO NW CT. SPC DOES HAVE LITCHFIELD CTY CLIPPED BY
THE MARGINAL RISK. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE AROUND 6.5C/KM
WITH ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR SOME STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL /NO ENHANCED WORDING YET/...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST. LOW- LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING
DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE PM. DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS OFF THE
ERN CATSKILLS/ERN DACKS MAY ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO GET INTO THE MID
AND U80S IN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION. EXPECT M70S TO
L80S IN MOST OTHER LOCATIONS...EXCEPT OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN
GREENS WHERE SOME U60S TO L70S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE COLD ADVECTION
REGIME...AS H850 TEMPS LOWER TO +10C TO +16C FROM NW TO SE OVER
THE FCST AREA BY THE LATE PM. A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SUNSET.

TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL HEATING THE SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY. THE ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS MAY LINGER THE LONGEST OVER THE SRN DACKS. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60F WITH SOME U40S TO L50S
OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN GREENS. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE QUITE
COMFORTABLE.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE FCST AREA WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER S-CNTRL QUEBEC. IN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW ANOTHER PIECE OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY WILL SWING ACROSS UPSTATE
NY AND NEW ENGLAND. THE BEST CHC OF ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS DUE TO THE
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. H500 TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -15C TO -18C FROM ALY
NORTH AND WEST. THE H500 HEIGHTS ARE ABOUT 2-3 STD DEVS BELOW
NORMAL BASED ON THE LATEST GEFS FOR WED. H850 TEMPS WILL BE 1-2
STD DEVS BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS ON WED WILL BE IN THE M60S TO L70S
OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS...WITH A FEW 80F
READINGS NEAR KPOU. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR COOL NIGHT FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF AUG...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE U40S TO M50S OVER
THE FCST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RETURN TO MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THIS
PERIOD...AND IS EXPECTED TO LAST.  HOWEVER...WEAK DISTURBANCES
INTERMINGLED WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MEAN RATHER SMALL CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS ON SOME DAYS...PARTICULARLY THE MORE SOUTHERN ZONES...
WHICH WILL BE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO A QUASI-STATIONARY MID-ATLANTIC
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  IF ANYTHING...THE LATTER PORTION OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO HAVE THE DRIEST CONDITIONS...GOOD NEWS FOR
WEEKENDERS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S...AND LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE 50S WILL BE EXTREMELY COMMON...WITH LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY VARIATION.
THE NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS AT ALBANY...RESPECTIVELY...ARE IN THE
LOWER 80S AND LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THERE IS STILL THE POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION DIRECTLY IMPACTING
THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. FOR NOW...WE FELT THE
BEST THREAT WAS ALL THE SITES BUT KPOU...SO INCLUDED TEMPOS FOR AN
HOUR OR SO AT ALL THE TAFS BUT KPOU FOR A THUNDERSTORM AND MVFR
CONDITIONS.

OTHERWISE...WE ARE LOOKING MAINLY AT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. AFTER THAT...WE WILL CONTINUE WITH IFR FOG AT KGFL AFTER
08Z...MVFR FOG AND PERHAPS MVFR STRATUS AT THE OTHER SITES.

WE DISSIPATE ALL FOG BY 12Z. THAT IS ABOUT THE TIME THE REAL COLD
FRONT WILL ACTUALLY BEGIN TO WORK ACROSS THE TAF SITES.

THE FRONT DOES NOT LOOK TO BE ALL THAT ACTIVE...BUT FOR NOW...DID
INCLUDE A VCSH AT KGFL AFTER 17Z. FOR NOW DID NOT INCLUDE ANY VCSH
AT THE OTHER TAF SITES. A THUNDERSTORM IS REMOTELY POSSIBLE AT ANY
OF THE TAF SITES MIDDAY OR AFTERNOON.

THE WIND WILL BE GENERALLY BE SOUTH 5-10KTS THIS EVENING...A
LITTLE LIGHTER OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. A SOUTH
WIND WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST TO WEST BY MIDDAY TUESDAY...AVERAGING
AROUND 10KTS...WITH GUSTS CLOSER TO 20 KTS.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WED NITE-THU NITE: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI-FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTAIN SOME HAIL GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.

AN UPPER LEVEL COULD GENERATE AN ADDITIONAL SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION ON TUESDAY.

OTHERWISE LOOK FOR A REDUCTION IN HEAT AND HUMIDITY...ESPECIALLY
ON WEDNESDAY. WITH A COLD POOL ALOFT AN ADDITIONAL  SHOWER IS
REMOTELY POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY BUT OTHERWISE IT IS DRY.

THE RH VALUES INCREASE TO 75 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH
VALUES WILL LOWER TO 35 TO 55 PERCENT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

SOUTH WIND WILL BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT. THE WIND WILL BECOME
WEST TO SOUTHWEST 5 TO 15 MPH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEST TO
NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH ON WEDNESDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR A WETTING RAIN WILL BE FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING...SOME OF
WHICH HAVE CONTAINED VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS (LOCALIZED TWO INCH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS). HOWEVER...RIVER BASIN AVERAGES WILL BE CLOSER
TO A QUARTER INCH. OTHER THAN THE USUAL LOCALIZED PONDING OF
WATER...THERE SHOULD NOT BE MUCH IF ANY RESPONSE ON ANY OF THE
SIGNIFICANT CREEKS OR RIVERS ACROSS THE REGION.

MORE WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. LITTLE OR NO HYDRO
PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE AT THIS TIME.

MAINLY DRY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

THEN...A MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN IS POSSIBLE FOR FRIDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/BGM/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 040026
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
826 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE
STILL COULD BE ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL LINGER OVER QUEBEC THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK...BRINGING COOLER AIR INTO OUR REGION...AND TRIGGERING
SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY NORTH OF I90 AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

AS OF 730 PM EDT...WE ARE STILL DEALING WITH WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ONE CELL IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY LOOKED STRONG
TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE SO A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING WAS ISSUED
ON THAT CELL.

THESE WERE TIED INTO A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH...SLOWLY EXISTING THE
REGION BUT A COLD FRONT STILL WELL TO OUR WEST. INSTABILTY  STILL
WAS AROUND 1000 J/KG...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.5 C/KM AND
0-6KM BULK SHEAR WAS CLOSE TO 40 KTS. THESE INGREDIENTS ARE JUST
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LOCALLY STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR AT
LEAST A COUPLE MORE HOURS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ADDITIONAL NON SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
COULD LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS...DIMINISHING AROUND OR A
LITTLE AFTER MIDNIGHT...EXCEPT SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY...WHERE
THE THREAT MIGHT LINGER AWHILE LONGER AS THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES.

SOME STRATUS MIGHT FORM THE RESULT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVERNIGHT
AND JUST ENOUGH WIND TO LIFT ANY FOG INTO A STRATUS DECK.

LEFT OVERNIGHT LOWS ALONE...AS THEY DIP BACK INTO THE 60S...WITH
SOME UPPER 50S NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. IT WILL STILL
BE SOMEWHAT MUGGY WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY AVERAGING AROUND 60.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 730 PM EDT...WE ARE STILL DEALING WITH WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ONE CELL IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY LOOKED STRONG
TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE SO A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING WAS ISSUED
ON THAT CELL.

THESE WERE TIED INTO A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH...SLOWLY EXISTING THE
REGION BUT A COLD FRONT STILL WELL TO OUR WEST. INSTABILTY  STILL
WAS AROUND 1000 J/KG...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.5 C/KM AND
0-6KM BULK SHEAR WAS CLOSE TO 40 KTS. THESE INGREDIENTS ARE JUST
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LOCALLY STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR AT
LEAST A COUPLE MORE HOURS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ADDITIONAL NON SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
COULD LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS...DIMINISHING AROUND OR A
LITTLE AFTER MIDNIGHT...EXCEPT SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY...WHERE
THE THREAT MIGHT LINGER AWHILE LONGER AS THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES.

SOME STRATUS MIGHT FORM THE RESULT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVERNIGHT
AND JUST ENOUGH WIND TO LIFT ANY FOG INTO A STRATUS DECK.

LEFT OVERNIGHT LOWS ALONE...AS THEY DIP BACK INTO THE 60S...WITH
SOME UPPER 50S NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. IT WILL STILL
BE SOMEWHAT MUGGY WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY AVERAGING AROUND 60.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR WRN NEW ENGLAND BY
DAYBREAK. THE SFC DEWPT BOUNDARY WILL STILL BE PROGRESSING EAST
ACROSS ERN NY. THE NAM IS ADVERTISING ALOT OF INSTABILITY FOR TUE
WITH A DEEPLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THE GFS HAS LESS AGAIN...BUT
THERE IS A SMALL AREA OF HIGH INSTABILITY FROM THE THE MASS PIKE
SOUTH AND EAST INTO NW CT. SPC DOES HAVE LITCHFIELD CTY CLIPPED BY
THE MARGINAL RISK. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE AROUND 6.5C/KM
WITH ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR SOME STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL /NO ENHANCED WORDING YET/...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST. LOW- LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING
DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE PM. DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS OFF THE
ERN CATSKILLS/ERN DACKS MAY ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO GET INTO THE MID
AND U80S IN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION. EXPECT M70S TO
L80S IN MOST OTHER LOCATIONS...EXCEPT OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN
GREENS WHERE SOME U60S TO L70S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE COLD ADVECTION
REGIME...AS H850 TEMPS LOWER TO +10C TO +16C FROM NW TO SE OVER
THE FCST AREA BY THE LATE PM. A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SUNSET.

TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL HEATING THE SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY. THE ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS MAY LINGER THE LONGEST OVER THE SRN DACKS. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60F WITH SOME U40S TO L50S
OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN GREENS. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE QUITE
COMFORTABLE.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE FCST AREA WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER S-CNTRL QUEBEC. IN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW ANOTHER PIECE OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY WILL SWING ACROSS UPSTATE
NY AND NEW ENGLAND. THE BEST CHC OF ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS DUE TO THE
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. H500 TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -15C TO -18C FROM ALY
NORTH AND WEST. THE H500 HEIGHTS ARE ABOUT 2-3 STD DEVS BELOW
NORMAL BASED ON THE LATEST GEFS FOR WED. H850 TEMPS WILL BE 1-2
STD DEVS BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS ON WED WILL BE IN THE M60S TO L70S
OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS...WITH A FEW 80F
READINGS NEAR KPOU. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR COOL NIGHT FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF AUG...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE U40S TO M50S OVER
THE FCST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RETURN TO MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THIS
PERIOD...AND IS EXPECTED TO LAST.  HOWEVER...WEAK DISTURBANCES
INTERMINGLED WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MEAN RATHER SMALL CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS ON SOME DAYS...PARTICULARLY THE MORE SOUTHERN ZONES...
WHICH WILL BE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO A QUASI-STATIONARY MID-ATLANTIC
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  IF ANYTHING...THE LATTER PORTION OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO HAVE THE DRIEST CONDITIONS...GOOD NEWS FOR
WEEKENDERS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S...AND LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE 50S WILL BE EXTREMELY COMMON...WITH LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY VARIATION.
THE NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS AT ALBANY...RESPECTIVELY...ARE IN THE
LOWER 80S AND LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THERE IS STILL THE POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION DIRECTLY IMPACTING
THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. FOR NOW...WE FELT THE
BEST THREAT WAS ALL THE SITES BUT KPOU...SO INCLUDED TEMPOS FOR AN
HOUR OR SO AT ALL THE TAFS BUT KPOU FOR A THUNDERSTORM AND MVFR
CONDITIONS.

OTHERWISE...WE ARE LOOKING MAINLY AT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. AFTER THAT...WE WILL CONTINUE WITH IFR FOG AT KGFL AFTER
08Z...MVFR FOG AND PERHAPS MVFR STRATUS AT THE OTHER SITES.

WE DISSIPATE ALL FOG BY 12Z. THAT IS ABOUT THE TIME THE REAL COLD
FRONT WILL ACTUALLY BEGIN TO WORK ACROSS THE TAF SITES.

THE FRONT DOES NOT LOOK TO BE ALL THAT ACTIVE...BUT FOR NOW...DID
INCLUDE A VCSH AT KGFL AFTER 17Z. FOR NOW DID NOT INCLUDE ANY VCSH
AT THE OTHER TAF SITES. A THUNDERSTORM IS REMOTELY POSSIBLE AT ANY
OF THE TAF SITES MIDDAY OR AFTERNOON.

THE WIND WILL BE GENERALLY BE SOUTH 5-10KTS THIS EVENING...A
LITTLE LIGHTER OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. A SOUTH
WIND WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST TO WEST BY MIDDAY TUESDAY...AVERAGING
AROUND 10KTS...WITH GUSTS CLOSER TO 20 KTS.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WED NITE-THU NITE: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI-FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTAIN SOME HAIL GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.

AN UPPER LEVEL COULD GENERATE AN ADDITIONAL SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION ON TUESDAY.

OTHERWISE LOOK FOR A REDUCTION IN HEAT AND HUMIDITY...ESPECIALLY
ON WEDNESDAY. WITH A COLD POOL ALOFT AN ADDITIONAL  SHOWER IS
REMOTELY POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY BUT OTHERWISE IT IS DRY.

THE RH VALUES INCREASE TO 75 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH
VALUES WILL LOWER TO 35 TO 55 PERCENT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

SOUTH WIND WILL BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT. THE WIND WILL BECOME
WEST TO SOUTHWEST 5 TO 15 MPH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEST TO
NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH ON WEDNESDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR A WETTING RAIN WILL BE FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING...SOME OF
WHICH HAVE CONTAINED VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS (LOCALIZED TWO INCH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS). HOWEVER...RIVER BASIN AVERAGES WILL BE CLOSER
TO A QUARTER INCH. OTHER THAN THE USUAL LOCALIZED PONDING OF
WATER...THERE SHOULD NOT BE MUCH IF ANY RESPONSE ON ANY OF THE
SIGNIFICANT CREEKS OR RIVERS ACROSS THE REGION.

MORE WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. LITTLE OR NO HYDRO
PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE AT THIS TIME.

MAINLY DRY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

THEN...A MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN IS POSSIBLE FOR FRIDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/BGM/WASULA



000
FXUS61 KALY 032354
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
754 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE
STILL COULD BE ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL LINGER OVER QUEBEC THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK...BRINGING COOLER AIR INTO OUR REGION...AND TRIGGERING
SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY NORTH OF I90 AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

AS OF 730 PM EDT...WE ARE STILL DEALING WITH WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ONE CELL IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY LOOKED STRONG
TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE SO A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING WAS ISSUED
ON THAT CELL.

THESE WERE TIED INTO A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH...SLOWLY EXISTING THE
REGION BUT A COLD FRONT STILL WELL TO OUR WEST. INSTABILTY  STILL
WAS AROUND 1000 J/KG...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.5 C/KM AND
0-6KM BULK SHEAR WAS CLOSE TO 40 KTS. THESE INGREDIENTS ARE JUST
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LOCALLY STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR AT
LEAST A COUPLE MORE HOURS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ADDITIONAL NON SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
COULD LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS...DIMINISHING AROUND OR A
LITTLE AFTER MIDNIGHT...EXCEPT SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY...WHERE
THE THREAT MIGHT LINGER AWHILE LONGER AS THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES.

SOME STRATUS MIGHT FORM THE RESULT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVERNIGHT
AND JUST ENOUGH WIND TO LIFT ANY FOG INTO A STRATUS DECK.

LEFT OVERNIGHT LOWS ALONE...AS THEY DIP BACK INTO THE 60S...WITH
SOME UPPER 50S NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. IT WILL STILL
BE SOMEWHAT MUGGY WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY AVERAGING AROUND 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR WRN NEW ENGLAND BY
DAYBREAK. THE SFC DEWPT BOUNDARY WILL STILL BE PROGRESSING EAST
ACROSS ERN NY. THE NAM IS ADVERTISING ALOT OF INSTABILITY FOR TUE
WITH A DEEPLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THE GFS HAS LESS AGAIN...BUT
THERE IS A SMALL AREA OF HIGH INSTABILITY FROM THE THE MASS PIKE
SOUTH AND EAST INTO NW CT. SPC DOES HAVE LITCHFIELD CTY CLIPPED BY
THE MARGINAL RISK. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE AROUND 6.5C/KM
WITH ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR SOME STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL /NO ENHANCED WORDING YET/...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST. LOW- LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING
DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE PM. DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS OFF THE
ERN CATSKILLS/ERN DACKS MAY ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO GET INTO THE MID
AND U80S IN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION. EXPECT M70S TO
L80S IN MOST OTHER LOCATIONS...EXCEPT OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN
GREENS WHERE SOME U60S TO L70S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE COLD ADVECTION
REGIME...AS H850 TEMPS LOWER TO +10C TO +16C FROM NW TO SE OVER
THE FCST AREA BY THE LATE PM. A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SUNSET.

TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL HEATING THE SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY. THE ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS MAY LINGER THE LONGEST OVER THE SRN DACKS. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60F WITH SOME U40S TO L50S
OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN GREENS. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE QUITE
COMFORTABLE.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE FCST AREA WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER S-CNTRL QUEBEC. IN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW ANOTHER PIECE OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY WILL SWING ACROSS UPSTATE
NY AND NEW ENGLAND. THE BEST CHC OF ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS DUE TO THE
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. H500 TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -15C TO -18C FROM ALY
NORTH AND WEST. THE H500 HEIGHTS ARE ABOUT 2-3 STD DEVS BELOW
NORMAL BASED ON THE LATEST GEFS FOR WED. H850 TEMPS WILL BE 1-2
STD DEVS BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS ON WED WILL BE IN THE M60S TO L70S
OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS...WITH A FEW 80F
READINGS NEAR KPOU. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR COOL NIGHT FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF AUG...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE U40S TO M50S OVER
THE FCST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RETURN TO MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THIS
PERIOD...AND IS EXPECTED TO LAST.  HOWEVER...WEAK DISTURBANCES
INTERMINGLED WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MEAN RATHER SMALL CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS ON SOME DAYS...PARTICULARLY THE MORE SOUTHERN ZONES...
WHICH WILL BE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO A QUASI-STATIONARY MID-ATLANTIC
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  IF ANYTHING...THE LATTER PORTION OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO HAVE THE DRIEST CONDITIONS...GOOD NEWS FOR
WEEKENDERS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S...AND LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE 50S WILL BE EXTREMELY COMMON...WITH LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY VARIATION.
THE NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS AT ALBANY...RESPECTIVELY...ARE IN THE
LOWER 80S AND LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THERE IS STILL THE POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION DIRECTLY IMPACTING
THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. FOR NOW...WE FELT THE
BEST THREAT WAS ALL THE SITES BUT KPOU...SO INCLUDED TEMPOS FOR AN
HOUR OR SO AT ALL THE TAFS BUT KPOU FOR A THUNDERSTORM AND MVFR
CONDITIONS.

OTHERWISE...WE ARE LOOKING MAINLY AT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. AFTER THAT...WE WILL CONTINUE WITH IFR FOG AT KGFL AFTER
08Z...MVFR FOG AND PERHAPS MVFR STRATUS AT THE OTHER SITES.

WE DISSIPATE ALL FOG BY 12Z. THAT IS ABOUT THE TIME THE REAL COLD
FRONT WILL ACTUALLY BEGIN TO WORK ACROSS THE TAF SITES.

THE FRONT DOES NOT LOOK TO BE ALL THAT ACTIVE...BUT FOR NOW...DID
INCLUDE A VCSH AT KGFL AFTER 17Z. FOR NOW DID NOT INCLUDE ANY VCSH
AT THE OTHER TAF SITES. A THUNDERSTORM IS REMOTELY POSSIBLE AT ANY
OF THE TAF SITES MIDDAY OR AFTERNOON.

THE WIND WILL BE GENERALLY BE SOUTH 5-10KTS THIS EVENING...A
LITTLE LIGHTER OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. A SOUTH
WIND WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST TO WEST BY MIDDAY TUESDAY...AVERAGING
AROUND 10KTS...WITH GUSTS CLOSER TO 20 KTS.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI-FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTAIN SOME HAIL GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.

AN UPPER LEVEL COULD GENERATE AN ADDITIONAL SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION ON TUESDAY.

OTHERWISE LOOK FOR A REDUCTION IN HEAT AND HUMIDITY...ESPECIALLY
ON WEDNESDAY. WITH A COLD POOL ALOFT AN ADDITIONAL  SHOWER IS
REMOTELY POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY BUT OTHERWISE IT IS DRY.

THE RH VALUES INCREASE TO 75 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH
VALUES WILL LOWER TO 35 TO 55 PERCENT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

SOUTH WIND WILL BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT. THE WIND WILL BECOME
WEST TO SOUTHWEST 5 TO 15 MPH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEST TO
NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH ON WEDNESDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR A WETTING RAIN WILL BE FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING...SOME OF
WHICH HAVE CONTAINED VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS (LOCALIZED TWO INCH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS). HOWEVER...RIVER BASIN AVERAGES WILL BE CLOSER
TO A QUARTER INCH. OTHER THAN THE USUAL LOCALIZED PONDING OF
WATER...THERE SHOULD NOT BE MUCH IF ANY RESPONSE ON ANY OF THE
SIGNIFICANT CREEKS OR RIVERS ACROSS THE REGION.

MORE WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. LITTLE OR NO HYDRO
PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE AT THIS TIME.

MAINLY DRY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

THEN...A MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN IS POSSIBLE FOR FRIDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV




000
FXUS61 KALY 032354
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
754 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE
STILL COULD BE ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL LINGER OVER QUEBEC THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK...BRINGING COOLER AIR INTO OUR REGION...AND TRIGGERING
SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY NORTH OF I90 AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

AS OF 730 PM EDT...WE ARE STILL DEALING WITH WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ONE CELL IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY LOOKED STRONG
TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE SO A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING WAS ISSUED
ON THAT CELL.

THESE WERE TIED INTO A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH...SLOWLY EXISTING THE
REGION BUT A COLD FRONT STILL WELL TO OUR WEST. INSTABILTY  STILL
WAS AROUND 1000 J/KG...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.5 C/KM AND
0-6KM BULK SHEAR WAS CLOSE TO 40 KTS. THESE INGREDIENTS ARE JUST
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LOCALLY STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR AT
LEAST A COUPLE MORE HOURS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ADDITIONAL NON SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
COULD LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS...DIMINISHING AROUND OR A
LITTLE AFTER MIDNIGHT...EXCEPT SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY...WHERE
THE THREAT MIGHT LINGER AWHILE LONGER AS THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES.

SOME STRATUS MIGHT FORM THE RESULT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVERNIGHT
AND JUST ENOUGH WIND TO LIFT ANY FOG INTO A STRATUS DECK.

LEFT OVERNIGHT LOWS ALONE...AS THEY DIP BACK INTO THE 60S...WITH
SOME UPPER 50S NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. IT WILL STILL
BE SOMEWHAT MUGGY WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY AVERAGING AROUND 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR WRN NEW ENGLAND BY
DAYBREAK. THE SFC DEWPT BOUNDARY WILL STILL BE PROGRESSING EAST
ACROSS ERN NY. THE NAM IS ADVERTISING ALOT OF INSTABILITY FOR TUE
WITH A DEEPLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THE GFS HAS LESS AGAIN...BUT
THERE IS A SMALL AREA OF HIGH INSTABILITY FROM THE THE MASS PIKE
SOUTH AND EAST INTO NW CT. SPC DOES HAVE LITCHFIELD CTY CLIPPED BY
THE MARGINAL RISK. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE AROUND 6.5C/KM
WITH ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR SOME STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL /NO ENHANCED WORDING YET/...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST. LOW- LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING
DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE PM. DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS OFF THE
ERN CATSKILLS/ERN DACKS MAY ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO GET INTO THE MID
AND U80S IN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION. EXPECT M70S TO
L80S IN MOST OTHER LOCATIONS...EXCEPT OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN
GREENS WHERE SOME U60S TO L70S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE COLD ADVECTION
REGIME...AS H850 TEMPS LOWER TO +10C TO +16C FROM NW TO SE OVER
THE FCST AREA BY THE LATE PM. A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SUNSET.

TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL HEATING THE SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY. THE ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS MAY LINGER THE LONGEST OVER THE SRN DACKS. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60F WITH SOME U40S TO L50S
OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN GREENS. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE QUITE
COMFORTABLE.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE FCST AREA WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER S-CNTRL QUEBEC. IN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW ANOTHER PIECE OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY WILL SWING ACROSS UPSTATE
NY AND NEW ENGLAND. THE BEST CHC OF ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS DUE TO THE
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. H500 TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -15C TO -18C FROM ALY
NORTH AND WEST. THE H500 HEIGHTS ARE ABOUT 2-3 STD DEVS BELOW
NORMAL BASED ON THE LATEST GEFS FOR WED. H850 TEMPS WILL BE 1-2
STD DEVS BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS ON WED WILL BE IN THE M60S TO L70S
OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS...WITH A FEW 80F
READINGS NEAR KPOU. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR COOL NIGHT FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF AUG...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE U40S TO M50S OVER
THE FCST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RETURN TO MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THIS
PERIOD...AND IS EXPECTED TO LAST.  HOWEVER...WEAK DISTURBANCES
INTERMINGLED WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MEAN RATHER SMALL CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS ON SOME DAYS...PARTICULARLY THE MORE SOUTHERN ZONES...
WHICH WILL BE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO A QUASI-STATIONARY MID-ATLANTIC
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  IF ANYTHING...THE LATTER PORTION OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO HAVE THE DRIEST CONDITIONS...GOOD NEWS FOR
WEEKENDERS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S...AND LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE 50S WILL BE EXTREMELY COMMON...WITH LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY VARIATION.
THE NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS AT ALBANY...RESPECTIVELY...ARE IN THE
LOWER 80S AND LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THERE IS STILL THE POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION DIRECTLY IMPACTING
THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. FOR NOW...WE FELT THE
BEST THREAT WAS ALL THE SITES BUT KPOU...SO INCLUDED TEMPOS FOR AN
HOUR OR SO AT ALL THE TAFS BUT KPOU FOR A THUNDERSTORM AND MVFR
CONDITIONS.

OTHERWISE...WE ARE LOOKING MAINLY AT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. AFTER THAT...WE WILL CONTINUE WITH IFR FOG AT KGFL AFTER
08Z...MVFR FOG AND PERHAPS MVFR STRATUS AT THE OTHER SITES.

WE DISSIPATE ALL FOG BY 12Z. THAT IS ABOUT THE TIME THE REAL COLD
FRONT WILL ACTUALLY BEGIN TO WORK ACROSS THE TAF SITES.

THE FRONT DOES NOT LOOK TO BE ALL THAT ACTIVE...BUT FOR NOW...DID
INCLUDE A VCSH AT KGFL AFTER 17Z. FOR NOW DID NOT INCLUDE ANY VCSH
AT THE OTHER TAF SITES. A THUNDERSTORM IS REMOTELY POSSIBLE AT ANY
OF THE TAF SITES MIDDAY OR AFTERNOON.

THE WIND WILL BE GENERALLY BE SOUTH 5-10KTS THIS EVENING...A
LITTLE LIGHTER OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. A SOUTH
WIND WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST TO WEST BY MIDDAY TUESDAY...AVERAGING
AROUND 10KTS...WITH GUSTS CLOSER TO 20 KTS.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI-FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTAIN SOME HAIL GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.

AN UPPER LEVEL COULD GENERATE AN ADDITIONAL SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION ON TUESDAY.

OTHERWISE LOOK FOR A REDUCTION IN HEAT AND HUMIDITY...ESPECIALLY
ON WEDNESDAY. WITH A COLD POOL ALOFT AN ADDITIONAL  SHOWER IS
REMOTELY POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY BUT OTHERWISE IT IS DRY.

THE RH VALUES INCREASE TO 75 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH
VALUES WILL LOWER TO 35 TO 55 PERCENT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

SOUTH WIND WILL BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT. THE WIND WILL BECOME
WEST TO SOUTHWEST 5 TO 15 MPH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEST TO
NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH ON WEDNESDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR A WETTING RAIN WILL BE FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING...SOME OF
WHICH HAVE CONTAINED VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS (LOCALIZED TWO INCH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS). HOWEVER...RIVER BASIN AVERAGES WILL BE CLOSER
TO A QUARTER INCH. OTHER THAN THE USUAL LOCALIZED PONDING OF
WATER...THERE SHOULD NOT BE MUCH IF ANY RESPONSE ON ANY OF THE
SIGNIFICANT CREEKS OR RIVERS ACROSS THE REGION.

MORE WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. LITTLE OR NO HYDRO
PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE AT THIS TIME.

MAINLY DRY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

THEN...A MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN IS POSSIBLE FOR FRIDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV



000
FXUS61 KOKX 032339
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
739 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH TONIGHT THEN STALL ACROSS
THE AREA TUESDAY. THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
MAY IMPACT THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BACK IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
THE COLD FRONT IS SLOW TO MOVE EAST AND REMAINS ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENTS REMAINS SCATTERED TO ISOLATED WITH A CAP IN PLACE.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT...THOUGH SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
PRECIPITATION SPLITS AROUND NYC AND LONG ISLAND WITH GREATER
CHANCES TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH. LOWERED THE POPS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT WITH MORE SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE
OCEAN BEACHES THROUGH THIS EVENING. A RIP CURRENT STATEMENT IS IN
EFFECT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY WITH A
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. VERY LITTLE
APPRECIABLE DIFFERENCE WILL BE FELT WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING
ABOVE NORMAL AND SIMILAR HUMIDITY AS MONDAY. LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
THE UPPER TROUGH BUILDS FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST...FORCING THE
ATTENDANT SURFACE FRONT FARTHER OFFSHORE WITH LOWER DEW POINTS
ADVECTING INTO THE REGION. A SUBSEQUENT DECREASE IN HUMIDITY WILL
BE FELT AS THIS OCCURS. BY MORNING...THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAINLY BE
CONFINED TO THE OFFSHORE WATERS.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE
OCEAN BEACHES THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.
A RIP CURRENT STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE OFFSHORE WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER
THE AREA INTO THURSDAY.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEPARTS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH SURFACE LOW OVER THE MID-
WEST TREKKING EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AFFECTING THE AREA MAINLY
FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THERE
IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE IT TRACKS AND THEREFORE HOW MUCH RAIN
WE DO RECEIVE. HOWEVER...IT DOES APPEAR MORE CERTAIN THAT A
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN EVENT IS IN STORE FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.

ISENTROPIC LIFT OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW NOTED IN BOTH THE
12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF...MAINLY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...SO THINKING
THIS WILL BE MORE STRATIFORM RAIN. SURFACE LOW CONTINUES ITS
APPROACH FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS DIFFER IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW.
THE 12Z ECMWF AND 12Z GFS AGREE WITH THE LOW BEING OVER THE NORTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC STATES BY 06Z SATURDAY. THEREAFTER...MODELS DIFFER
QUITE A BIT IN THEIR SOLUTIONS. 12Z ECMWF TREKS THE LOW NORTHEAST IN
SIDE THE 40/70 BENCHMARK THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY WHILE IT SLOWLY
STRENGTHENS WHILE THE GFS WEAKENS THE LOW OVER THE OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OFFSHORE AND WEAKER WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG
IT...WHILE THE 12Z CANADIAN IS AN OUTLIER BEING MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN
THE OTHER MODELS. THEREFORE...SIDED MORE ALONG THE LINES OF THE GFS
AND ECMWF AND KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY

LOW PRESSURE PUSHES AWAY FROM THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS.

OUTSIDE OF FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SEASONABLE FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. RAIN AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN ON FRIDAY...NOT
MAKING IT OUT OF THE 70S REGION-WIDE. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES MAY
PROVE TO BE A BIT LOWER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MOST OF THE SHRA/TSRA THAT WERE APPROACHING THE LOCAL AIRSPACE
HAVE TAPERED OFF AND BECOME ISOLATED. WILL GO AHEAD AND REMOVE
MENTION OF TSRA THIS EVENING FROM THE TAFS.

COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND WILL PASS
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. WILL TEMPO TSRA FOR A FEW HOURS DURING THE
LATE NIGHT HOURS...FROM 06-09Z OVER FAR WESTERN TERMINALS TO
08-11Z OVER MOST EASTERN TERMINALS. WILL LEAVE OUT OF KGON FOR
NOW...AS IT IS HARD TO TELL IF TSRA WILL MAKE IT THERE.

SOUTH WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 5-10 KT THIS EVENING. AFTER FRONTAL
PASSAGE...WINDS SHIFT TO THE SW AND INCREASE TO 8-12 KT. GRADIENT
TIGHTENS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LOCAL SEA BREEZES POSSIBLE AT COASTAL
TERMINALS.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: BEST CHANCES FOR TSRA WILL BE AFT 07Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: BEST CHANCES FOR TSRA WILL BE AFT 07Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: BEST CHANCES FOR TSRA WILL BE AFT 06Z.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: BEST CHANCES FOR TSRA WILL BE AFT 06Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: BEST CHANCES FOR TSRA WILL BE AFT 07Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: BEST CHANCES FOR TSRA WILL BE AFT 08Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WED THROUGH SAT...
.TUE NIGHT...SLGT CHC FOR TSTMS MAINLY CSTL TERMINALS IN THE
EVENING. BECOMING VFR OVERNIGHT. SW FLOW BECOMING NW OVERNIGHT.
.WED-THU...VFR. GENERALLY W FLOW.
.FRI...MVFR OR LOWER IN RAIN. WINDS BECOMING NE.
.SAT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN RAIN. NE WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
WIND AND SEAS FORECAST ON TRACK. UPDATED THE WEATHER FOR THIS
EVENING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING FOR LOWER CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE COLD FRONT WELL WEST OF THE
WATERS...THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...APPROACHING THE WATERS
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

WINDS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL REMAIN STRONG INTO LATE TONIGHT
BEFORE LIGHTENING WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT.

OCEAN SEAS BUILD DUE TO THE INCREASE IN THESE WINDS. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ON THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY EVENING.

OCEAN SEAS WILL BE SUBSIDING TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT 5 FT SEAS MAY
LINGER ON THE EASTERN OCEAN UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY WITH SUB SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MAY PASS OVER
THE WATERS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. OCCASIONAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY WITH SUB SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LOW PRESSURE MAY PASS OVER OR NEAR THE WATERS
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
OCCASIONAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY ON
THE OCEAN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A TENTH TO A QUARTER INCH OF BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY
HEAVIER THUNDERSTORMS.

A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN WHERE AND WHEN THE
HEAVIEST OF THE RAIN WILL FALL. ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD
LIMIT FLOODING POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ075-
     080-081-178-179.
     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 6 AM EDT TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ075-080-081-178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MD/JP
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...MD
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...MET
HYDROLOGY...MD/JP



000
FXUS61 KBOX 032259
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
659 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOWARDS TUESDAY
MORNING...CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SOME
OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. DRY...WARM AND LESS
HUMID WEATHER ARRIVES WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY. A
PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE TIMING OF POTENTIAL WET WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
7 PM UPDATE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ONE THUNDERSTORM THAT MOVED
THROUGH THE WESTERN PART OF FRANKLIN COUNTY MASS...THE STORMS HAVE
REMAINED TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS
EVENING. WITH STORMS REMAINING ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW YORK
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ANOTHER STORM OR TWO MOVES THROUGH THIS SAME
AREA BEFORE MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY AS DRY AIR IS ERODING AS SEEN ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. HOWEVER...OVERALL EXPECT MOST OF THE AREA TO
BE DRY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

MADE ONLY VERY MINOR UPDATES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS IT WAS
LARGELY ON TRACK. THOSE UPDATES MADE WERE TO THE TEMPERATURES TO
BRING THEM BACK IN LINE WITH CURRENT TRENDS.

TONIGHT...

POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE WEATHER OUTCOMES INTO SE NEW ENGLAND TOWARDS
TUESDAY MORNING. FORECAST GUIDANCE CONSENSUS NOTES AN INSTABILITY
BURST ELEVATED AND MAINTAINED BY A S/SW WARM-MOIST PLUME OF HIGHER
THETA-E AIR ABOVE A SUBSEQUENT INVERSION. PWATS OF 1.50-1.75 INCHES.
ACTIVITY LOOKS TO ORIGINATE ALONG THE NOSE OF A H925-85 JET WITHIN A
H85-7 ENVIRONMENT OF 6-7C/KM LAPSE RATES. YET THERE IS A LACK OF
DEEP-LAYER FORCING AS THE BETTER AREA OF PVA / MID-LEVEL TROUGH /
SURFACE COLD FRONT REMAIN TO THE W.

THINKING IS THAT WE MAY SEE A WIDESPREAD AREA OF ACTIVITY OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS COLLOCATED WITH THE CONVERGENT LOW-LEVEL PLUME.
UNCERTAINTY IF ANY THUNDERSTORMS BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. HEAVY RAIN
LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT ALONG WITH LIGHTNING. THINKING LOW RISK
SEVERE AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE STORMS TO BECOME STRONG. WILL
SEE COLLOCATED UNI-DIRECTIONAL SW-NE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR EXCEEDING 40
KTS AND FREEZING LEVELS OF AROUND 11 KFT. SOME EVIDENCE OF TURNING
WITHIN THE 0-1/0-3 KM LAYER. SREF DOES DENOTE DECENT PROBABILITIES
OF INSTABILITY EXCEEDING 2K J/KG IN ADDITION TO THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHEAR AND TURNING ENVIRONMENT. THOUGH SREF PROBS NOT SO MUCH HELPFUL
WITH RESPECT TO PRECIP ACCUMULATIONS...THUS CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT
TO POSSIBLE FLOODING IS LOW DESPITE THE ANTICIPATED OUTCOMES THAT
WERE DISCUSSED ABOVE. WILL AVOID ENHANCED WORDING WITH THE FORECAST
FOR THE TIME BEING.

SHOULD BETTER FORCING AND VENTING ALOFT WITH THE H3 JET SHIFT E...
THERE WOULD BE GREATER IMPETUS UPON THE ENVIRONMENT TO GENERATE
GREATER AND LIKELY STRONGER CONVECTIVE WEATHER. INTERESTING AS TO
WHETHER CONVECTIVE REMNANTS W FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY SHIFT E AND
ACT AS A CRUX OF FORCING VIA LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. OVERALL
INDIVIDUAL MODELS CONTINUE TO WOBBLE AND THERE IS JUST AN UNDERLYING
LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY OTHER THAN THE FOCUS BEING ON SE NEW ENGLAND.
IT MAY BE QUIET THROUGHOUT AS THE PRESENT DRY SUBSIDING WEDGE OF
AIR ACROSS THE REGION MAINTAINS.

OTHERWISE SW-FLOW CONTINUES OVERNIGHT USHERING HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR
ACROSS INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND. SHOULD REMAIN BREEZY ALONG THE S/SE-
COAST. INCREASING CLOUD COVER SHOULD YIELD MILD LOW TEMPERATURES
AROUND THE MID- TO UPPER-60S AND MAY SUBSEQUENTLY LIMIT PATCHY DENSE
FOG TO JUST ACROSS S/SE NEW ENGLAND IN HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...

A COMBINATION OF RISING HEIGHTS WITHIN THE MID-LEVELS COMBINED WITH
DRIER AIR ALOFT COULD SUBDUE THE POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT.
BENEATH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT THRU WHICH ADDITIONAL MID-LEVEL IMPULSES
AND ACCOMPANYING JET-STREAKS RESIDE...THE OVERALL QUESTION IS AS TO
WHETHER A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CAN BECOME THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. SWEEPING THROUGH AN ENVIRONMENT OF ROBUST THETA-E
AIR AND INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF 2K J/KG IN WHICH LAPSE RATES ARE
STEEP ESPECIALLY H85-7 AND SHEAR PROFILES ARE MODERATE TO STRONG TO
50 KTS WITH SLIGHT TURNING WITHIN THE 0-1/0-3 KM PROFILE...THERE
APPEARS TO BE MECHANISMS FOR FORCING...BUT SHOULD MID-LEVEL RIDGING
PROCEED...THIS SEEMS TO SQUASH THE POSSIBILITY FOR CONVECTION. THERE
IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY THAT SHOULD ACTIVITY DEVELOP TOWARDS MORNING
OVER SE NEW ENGLAND AS NOTED EARLIER IT COULD SUBDUE THE ENVIRONMENT
FROM BECOMING CONVECTIVE /I.E. CLOUD COVER/. A VERY COMPLICATED
FORECAST.

BUT STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOMETHING POPPING
ACROSS THE INTERIOR. AM SOMEWHAT CONCERNED NOTING THE CIPS ANALOG
GUIDANCE IN WHERE SEVERAL OF THE ANALOGS WITNESSED SUBSTANTIAL WIND
AND HAIL IMPACTS OVER N- AND W-PORTIONS OF S NEW ENGLAND. THE STRONG
TO SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS SEEMINGLY THERE THOUGH THERE IS SOME
LEVEL OF DOUBT. EVEN SPC WILL WAIT ON HOW THE ENVIRONMENT DEVELOPS
WITH RESPECT TO THEIR CONVECTIVE WEATHER OUTLOOKS...WHETHER THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL DESTABILIZE. CAN NOT RULE IT OUT COMPLETELY AND
WILL PREPARE FOR THE POTENTIAL ACCORDINGLY. FOCUS OF A HEAVY RAIN
THREAT ALONG WITH POTENTIAL HAIL AND STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND
POSSIBILITIES. CAN NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A TORNADO. BUT
NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME TO GO WITH ENHANCED WORDING IN
THE FORECAST.

WHILE FORECAST GUIDANCE SEEMS MIXED WITH AN UNCERTAIN EVOLUTION OF
SYNOPTICS...THERE IS GREATER CONFIDENCE OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY AROUND THE VICINITY OF SE NEW ENGLAND AND ADJACENT WATERS
WHERE THE SW-NE PLUME OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR RESIDES AS WELL AS BOTH
A STRONGER AND CONVERGENT SW-NE H925-85 WIND PROFILE. WOULD EXPECT A
CONTINUATION BEGINNING IN THE MORNING AS OUTLINED IN THE EARLIER
DISCUSSION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH
ALSO COULD BE STRONG AND POSSIBLY SEVERE.

OVERALL...A MILD AND MUGGY DAY WITH HIGHS INTO THE MID- TO UPPER-80S
AS DEWPOINTS RANGE AROUND THE MID- TO UPPER-60S.

TUESDAY NIGHT...

FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THE HIGHER THETA-E / INSTABILITY OUT TO SEA
INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SO ANTICIPATING A DRYING TREND. W-FLOW
PROCEEDING USHERING LOWER DEWPOINT AIR ACROSS THE INTERIOR. AS
CONDITIONS GRADUALLY CLEAR...TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE LOW- TO MID-
60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE AROUND FRIDAY
* TEMPERATURES TRENDING BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD

OVERALL...THE MODELS HAVE RATHER POOR AGREEMENT ON THE GENERAL
PATTERN AND TIMING THROUGH THE LONG TERM. IN SOME TIME PERIODS IT
SEEMS THAT THE GFS MAY JUST BE SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF. IN OTHERS...
THEY ARE JUST COMPLETELY DIFFERENT. THE ENSEMBLES ARE NOT MUCH
HELP IN THAT THE ECMWF ENSEMBLES LOOK VERY SIMILAR TO THE OPERATIONAL
MODEL AND THE GEFS IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE GFS. BASICALLY HAVE TWO
FAIRLY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM. HOWEVER...
GENERAL TRENDS ARE SIMILAR. LOOKING AT A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK.

WEDNESDAY...LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL. DESPITE THE POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES AS A
SHORTWAVE PUSHES INTO THE REGION...EXPECT MUCH OF THE DAY AND MUCH
OF THE AREA TO REMAIN DRY.

THURSDAY...MUCH OF THE DAY LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE AREA. THIS IS ONE OF THOSE TIMES THE TIMING IS
OFF BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS. THE ECMWF IS QUICK TO MOVE THE
HIGH PRESSURE OUT OF THE REGION...PUSHED BY LOW PRESSURE MOVING
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE GFS KEEPS THAT
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE LOW PRESSURE IN
THE GREAT LAKES.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THIS LOOKS TO BE THE MOST
UNSETTLED TIME WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
THEN POSSIBLY UP THE EAST COAST OVER THE 40/70 BENCHMARK SOUTHEAST
OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE ECMWF IS THE MOST BULLISH WITH THIS...
TRACKING THE LOW DIRECTLY OVER THE BENCHMARK AND BRINGING AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN TO MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE GFS
DEVELOPS SOME SORT OF BOUNDARY ALONG WHICH SEVERAL AREAS OF LOW
PRESSURE TRAVEL...BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN TO THE REGION. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE A GIVEN WITH LOWERING HEIGHTS/TEMPS ALOFT
AND MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES FOR MUCH OF THIS TIME.
WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE TEMPS TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S ON FRIDAY.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MUCH OF THIS FORECAST WILL DEPEND ON HOW FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY SHAKE OUT...BUT IN GENERAL THE WEATHER LOOKS DRIER AND
QUIETER WITH REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SW-WINDS. SCT -SHRA SWEEP FROM THE W AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE
OVER SE TERMINALS TOWARDS MORNING WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF TSRA /
+RA AND LOWERING CIGS TO MVFR. PATCHY FOG. VFR ELSEWHERE.

TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
SW-WINDS GUSTY AT TIMES 20-25 KTS. SCT SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE OVER THE
INTERIOR THOUGH BETTER CHANCES OVER SE NEW ENGLAND INTO EVENING.
OTHER THAN MVFR LINGERING OVER SE TERMINALS DURING THE MORNING...
TEMPO MVFR-IFR POSSIBLE WITH ANY WEATHER.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS BACK W WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. TERMINALS CLEAR OUT W TO E.
PREVAILING VFR WITH MVFR CIGS LINGERING OVER SE TERMINALS TOWARDS
MORNING.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP
ACROSS THE TERMINAL TOWARDS TUESDAY MORNING.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. LOW PROBABILITY
OF A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS NW MA WEDNESDAY. ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP MAY HAVE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING...HIGHER
CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS.  MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN WIDESPREAD RAIN LIKELY
SOMETIME DURING THIS PERIOD.  VFR BEFORE AND AFTER PERIOD OF RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SW-WINDS CONTINUE WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS...STRONGER OVER THE S-
WATERS AT 25 KTS. WAVES BUILDING TO 5 FEET. PERHAPS SOME PATCHY
FOG ISSUES. INCREASING AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDER- STORMS TOWARDS MORNING. STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SW-WINDS WITH GUSTS 20-25 KTS. WAVES AT 5-6 FEET. CONTINUED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH SOME OF THOSE STORMS BEING
STRONG TO SEVERE.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SW-WINDS BACKING W THROUGH THE NIGHT. GUSTS SUBSIDING. WAVES AT
5-6 FEET. SHOWER / THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONCLUDE W TO E TOWARDS
MORNING.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW 5 FEET EXPECTED. RAIN IS LIKELY
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...LIMITING VISIBILITIES AT TIMES.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EASTERLY WINDS
AND SEAS INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE OUTER WATERS.
RAIN IS LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...LIMITING VISIBILITIES
AT TIMES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ230>234-236-
     250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...RLG/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...RLG/SIPPRELL
MARINE...RLG/SIPPRELL



000
FXUS61 KBOX 032259
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
659 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOWARDS TUESDAY
MORNING...CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SOME
OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. DRY...WARM AND LESS
HUMID WEATHER ARRIVES WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY. A
PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE TIMING OF POTENTIAL WET WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
7 PM UPDATE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ONE THUNDERSTORM THAT MOVED
THROUGH THE WESTERN PART OF FRANKLIN COUNTY MASS...THE STORMS HAVE
REMAINED TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS
EVENING. WITH STORMS REMAINING ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW YORK
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ANOTHER STORM OR TWO MOVES THROUGH THIS SAME
AREA BEFORE MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY AS DRY AIR IS ERODING AS SEEN ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. HOWEVER...OVERALL EXPECT MOST OF THE AREA TO
BE DRY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

MADE ONLY VERY MINOR UPDATES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS IT WAS
LARGELY ON TRACK. THOSE UPDATES MADE WERE TO THE TEMPERATURES TO
BRING THEM BACK IN LINE WITH CURRENT TRENDS.

TONIGHT...

POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE WEATHER OUTCOMES INTO SE NEW ENGLAND TOWARDS
TUESDAY MORNING. FORECAST GUIDANCE CONSENSUS NOTES AN INSTABILITY
BURST ELEVATED AND MAINTAINED BY A S/SW WARM-MOIST PLUME OF HIGHER
THETA-E AIR ABOVE A SUBSEQUENT INVERSION. PWATS OF 1.50-1.75 INCHES.
ACTIVITY LOOKS TO ORIGINATE ALONG THE NOSE OF A H925-85 JET WITHIN A
H85-7 ENVIRONMENT OF 6-7C/KM LAPSE RATES. YET THERE IS A LACK OF
DEEP-LAYER FORCING AS THE BETTER AREA OF PVA / MID-LEVEL TROUGH /
SURFACE COLD FRONT REMAIN TO THE W.

THINKING IS THAT WE MAY SEE A WIDESPREAD AREA OF ACTIVITY OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS COLLOCATED WITH THE CONVERGENT LOW-LEVEL PLUME.
UNCERTAINTY IF ANY THUNDERSTORMS BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. HEAVY RAIN
LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT ALONG WITH LIGHTNING. THINKING LOW RISK
SEVERE AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE STORMS TO BECOME STRONG. WILL
SEE COLLOCATED UNI-DIRECTIONAL SW-NE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR EXCEEDING 40
KTS AND FREEZING LEVELS OF AROUND 11 KFT. SOME EVIDENCE OF TURNING
WITHIN THE 0-1/0-3 KM LAYER. SREF DOES DENOTE DECENT PROBABILITIES
OF INSTABILITY EXCEEDING 2K J/KG IN ADDITION TO THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHEAR AND TURNING ENVIRONMENT. THOUGH SREF PROBS NOT SO MUCH HELPFUL
WITH RESPECT TO PRECIP ACCUMULATIONS...THUS CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT
TO POSSIBLE FLOODING IS LOW DESPITE THE ANTICIPATED OUTCOMES THAT
WERE DISCUSSED ABOVE. WILL AVOID ENHANCED WORDING WITH THE FORECAST
FOR THE TIME BEING.

SHOULD BETTER FORCING AND VENTING ALOFT WITH THE H3 JET SHIFT E...
THERE WOULD BE GREATER IMPETUS UPON THE ENVIRONMENT TO GENERATE
GREATER AND LIKELY STRONGER CONVECTIVE WEATHER. INTERESTING AS TO
WHETHER CONVECTIVE REMNANTS W FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY SHIFT E AND
ACT AS A CRUX OF FORCING VIA LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. OVERALL
INDIVIDUAL MODELS CONTINUE TO WOBBLE AND THERE IS JUST AN UNDERLYING
LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY OTHER THAN THE FOCUS BEING ON SE NEW ENGLAND.
IT MAY BE QUIET THROUGHOUT AS THE PRESENT DRY SUBSIDING WEDGE OF
AIR ACROSS THE REGION MAINTAINS.

OTHERWISE SW-FLOW CONTINUES OVERNIGHT USHERING HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR
ACROSS INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND. SHOULD REMAIN BREEZY ALONG THE S/SE-
COAST. INCREASING CLOUD COVER SHOULD YIELD MILD LOW TEMPERATURES
AROUND THE MID- TO UPPER-60S AND MAY SUBSEQUENTLY LIMIT PATCHY DENSE
FOG TO JUST ACROSS S/SE NEW ENGLAND IN HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...

A COMBINATION OF RISING HEIGHTS WITHIN THE MID-LEVELS COMBINED WITH
DRIER AIR ALOFT COULD SUBDUE THE POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT.
BENEATH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT THRU WHICH ADDITIONAL MID-LEVEL IMPULSES
AND ACCOMPANYING JET-STREAKS RESIDE...THE OVERALL QUESTION IS AS TO
WHETHER A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CAN BECOME THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. SWEEPING THROUGH AN ENVIRONMENT OF ROBUST THETA-E
AIR AND INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF 2K J/KG IN WHICH LAPSE RATES ARE
STEEP ESPECIALLY H85-7 AND SHEAR PROFILES ARE MODERATE TO STRONG TO
50 KTS WITH SLIGHT TURNING WITHIN THE 0-1/0-3 KM PROFILE...THERE
APPEARS TO BE MECHANISMS FOR FORCING...BUT SHOULD MID-LEVEL RIDGING
PROCEED...THIS SEEMS TO SQUASH THE POSSIBILITY FOR CONVECTION. THERE
IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY THAT SHOULD ACTIVITY DEVELOP TOWARDS MORNING
OVER SE NEW ENGLAND AS NOTED EARLIER IT COULD SUBDUE THE ENVIRONMENT
FROM BECOMING CONVECTIVE /I.E. CLOUD COVER/. A VERY COMPLICATED
FORECAST.

BUT STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOMETHING POPPING
ACROSS THE INTERIOR. AM SOMEWHAT CONCERNED NOTING THE CIPS ANALOG
GUIDANCE IN WHERE SEVERAL OF THE ANALOGS WITNESSED SUBSTANTIAL WIND
AND HAIL IMPACTS OVER N- AND W-PORTIONS OF S NEW ENGLAND. THE STRONG
TO SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS SEEMINGLY THERE THOUGH THERE IS SOME
LEVEL OF DOUBT. EVEN SPC WILL WAIT ON HOW THE ENVIRONMENT DEVELOPS
WITH RESPECT TO THEIR CONVECTIVE WEATHER OUTLOOKS...WHETHER THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL DESTABILIZE. CAN NOT RULE IT OUT COMPLETELY AND
WILL PREPARE FOR THE POTENTIAL ACCORDINGLY. FOCUS OF A HEAVY RAIN
THREAT ALONG WITH POTENTIAL HAIL AND STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND
POSSIBILITIES. CAN NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A TORNADO. BUT
NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME TO GO WITH ENHANCED WORDING IN
THE FORECAST.

WHILE FORECAST GUIDANCE SEEMS MIXED WITH AN UNCERTAIN EVOLUTION OF
SYNOPTICS...THERE IS GREATER CONFIDENCE OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY AROUND THE VICINITY OF SE NEW ENGLAND AND ADJACENT WATERS
WHERE THE SW-NE PLUME OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR RESIDES AS WELL AS BOTH
A STRONGER AND CONVERGENT SW-NE H925-85 WIND PROFILE. WOULD EXPECT A
CONTINUATION BEGINNING IN THE MORNING AS OUTLINED IN THE EARLIER
DISCUSSION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH
ALSO COULD BE STRONG AND POSSIBLY SEVERE.

OVERALL...A MILD AND MUGGY DAY WITH HIGHS INTO THE MID- TO UPPER-80S
AS DEWPOINTS RANGE AROUND THE MID- TO UPPER-60S.

TUESDAY NIGHT...

FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THE HIGHER THETA-E / INSTABILITY OUT TO SEA
INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SO ANTICIPATING A DRYING TREND. W-FLOW
PROCEEDING USHERING LOWER DEWPOINT AIR ACROSS THE INTERIOR. AS
CONDITIONS GRADUALLY CLEAR...TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE LOW- TO MID-
60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE AROUND FRIDAY
* TEMPERATURES TRENDING BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD

OVERALL...THE MODELS HAVE RATHER POOR AGREEMENT ON THE GENERAL
PATTERN AND TIMING THROUGH THE LONG TERM. IN SOME TIME PERIODS IT
SEEMS THAT THE GFS MAY JUST BE SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF. IN OTHERS...
THEY ARE JUST COMPLETELY DIFFERENT. THE ENSEMBLES ARE NOT MUCH
HELP IN THAT THE ECMWF ENSEMBLES LOOK VERY SIMILAR TO THE OPERATIONAL
MODEL AND THE GEFS IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE GFS. BASICALLY HAVE TWO
FAIRLY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM. HOWEVER...
GENERAL TRENDS ARE SIMILAR. LOOKING AT A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK.

WEDNESDAY...LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL. DESPITE THE POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES AS A
SHORTWAVE PUSHES INTO THE REGION...EXPECT MUCH OF THE DAY AND MUCH
OF THE AREA TO REMAIN DRY.

THURSDAY...MUCH OF THE DAY LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE AREA. THIS IS ONE OF THOSE TIMES THE TIMING IS
OFF BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS. THE ECMWF IS QUICK TO MOVE THE
HIGH PRESSURE OUT OF THE REGION...PUSHED BY LOW PRESSURE MOVING
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE GFS KEEPS THAT
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE LOW PRESSURE IN
THE GREAT LAKES.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THIS LOOKS TO BE THE MOST
UNSETTLED TIME WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
THEN POSSIBLY UP THE EAST COAST OVER THE 40/70 BENCHMARK SOUTHEAST
OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE ECMWF IS THE MOST BULLISH WITH THIS...
TRACKING THE LOW DIRECTLY OVER THE BENCHMARK AND BRINGING AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN TO MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE GFS
DEVELOPS SOME SORT OF BOUNDARY ALONG WHICH SEVERAL AREAS OF LOW
PRESSURE TRAVEL...BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN TO THE REGION. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE A GIVEN WITH LOWERING HEIGHTS/TEMPS ALOFT
AND MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES FOR MUCH OF THIS TIME.
WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE TEMPS TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S ON FRIDAY.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MUCH OF THIS FORECAST WILL DEPEND ON HOW FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY SHAKE OUT...BUT IN GENERAL THE WEATHER LOOKS DRIER AND
QUIETER WITH REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SW-WINDS. SCT -SHRA SWEEP FROM THE W AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE
OVER SE TERMINALS TOWARDS MORNING WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF TSRA /
+RA AND LOWERING CIGS TO MVFR. PATCHY FOG. VFR ELSEWHERE.

TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
SW-WINDS GUSTY AT TIMES 20-25 KTS. SCT SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE OVER THE
INTERIOR THOUGH BETTER CHANCES OVER SE NEW ENGLAND INTO EVENING.
OTHER THAN MVFR LINGERING OVER SE TERMINALS DURING THE MORNING...
TEMPO MVFR-IFR POSSIBLE WITH ANY WEATHER.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS BACK W WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. TERMINALS CLEAR OUT W TO E.
PREVAILING VFR WITH MVFR CIGS LINGERING OVER SE TERMINALS TOWARDS
MORNING.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP
ACROSS THE TERMINAL TOWARDS TUESDAY MORNING.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. LOW PROBABILITY
OF A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS NW MA WEDNESDAY. ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP MAY HAVE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING...HIGHER
CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS.  MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN WIDESPREAD RAIN LIKELY
SOMETIME DURING THIS PERIOD.  VFR BEFORE AND AFTER PERIOD OF RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SW-WINDS CONTINUE WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS...STRONGER OVER THE S-
WATERS AT 25 KTS. WAVES BUILDING TO 5 FEET. PERHAPS SOME PATCHY
FOG ISSUES. INCREASING AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDER- STORMS TOWARDS MORNING. STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SW-WINDS WITH GUSTS 20-25 KTS. WAVES AT 5-6 FEET. CONTINUED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH SOME OF THOSE STORMS BEING
STRONG TO SEVERE.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SW-WINDS BACKING W THROUGH THE NIGHT. GUSTS SUBSIDING. WAVES AT
5-6 FEET. SHOWER / THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONCLUDE W TO E TOWARDS
MORNING.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW 5 FEET EXPECTED. RAIN IS LIKELY
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...LIMITING VISIBILITIES AT TIMES.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EASTERLY WINDS
AND SEAS INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE OUTER WATERS.
RAIN IS LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...LIMITING VISIBILITIES
AT TIMES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ230>234-236-
     250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...RLG/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...RLG/SIPPRELL
MARINE...RLG/SIPPRELL




000
FXUS61 KALY 032137
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
537 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING AND MOVE TO
THE COAST BY MORNING. IT MAY TRIGGER STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
LINGER OVER QUEBEC THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...BRINGING COOLER AIR
INTO OUR REGION...AND TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY NORTH OF I90
AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...

AS OF 500 PM EDT...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED OUR REGION
THANKS TO A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. ONE CELL WHICH POPPED UP AT THE
AIRPORT AROUND 200 PM LOOKS TO BE THE RESULT OF SOUTHERN MOHAWK
CONVERGENCE. THE OTHERS...WERE TIED INTO THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
AND A SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO THE REGION. SOME OF THE CELLS BECAME
STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE PRODUCING SOME MARGINAL WIND AND HAIL
DAMAGE. PLEASE REFER TO OUR LATEST LOCAL STORM REPORTS FOR ALL THE
LATEST STORM REPORTS.

MU CAPE VALUES WERE IN THE VCNTY OF 1000-1500 J/KG...MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE ARND 6.5C. THE LATEST HRRR DOES NOT SHOW ANY REAL
ORGANIZED LINES (AS THERE MIGHT NOT BE QUITE ENOUGH 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR). HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL SCATTERED CELLS COULD
BECOME LOCALLY STRONG TO SEVERE THROUGH ABOUT SUNDOWN.

MEANWHILE...THE REAL STRONG COLD FRONT WAS STILL LAGGING BEHIND IN
WESTERN NEW YORK STATE WITH A FEW MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS. THEREFORE WILL CARRY HIGH CHANCES/LIKELY POPS INTO
THE EVENING HOURS...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR PARTIAL SUNSHINE THROUGH SUNDOWN AND
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S WITH DEWPOINTS
WELL INTO THE 60S.

OVERNIGHT ANY LEFT OVER CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH AS THE FRONT
PASSES THROUGH. IT WILL BE VARIABLY CLOUDY WITH LOWS EVENTUALLY
GETTING DOWN TO THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR WRN NEW ENGLAND BY
DAYBREAK. THE SFC DEWPT BOUNDARY WILL STILL BE PROGRESSING EAST
ACROSS ERN NY. THE NAM IS ADVERTISING ALOT OF INSTABILITY FOR TUE
WITH A DEEPLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THE GFS HAS LESS AGAIN...BUT
THERE IS A SMALL AREA OF HIGH INSTABILITY FROM THE THE MASS PIKE
SOUTH AND EAST INTO NW CT. SPC DOES HAVE LITCHFIELD CTY CLIPPED BY
THE MARGINAL RISK. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE AROUND 6.5C/KM
WITH ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR SOME STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL /NO ENHANCED WORDING YET/...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST. LOW- LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING
DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE PM. DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS OFF THE
ERN CATSKILLS/ERN DACKS MAY ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO GET INTO THE MID
AND U80S IN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION. EXPECT M70S TO
L80S IN MOST OTHER LOCATIONS...EXCEPT OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN
GREENS WHERE SOME U60S TO L70S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE COLD ADVECTION
REGIME...AS H850 TEMPS LOWER TO +10C TO +16C FROM NW TO SE OVER
THE FCST AREA BY THE LATE PM. A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SUNSET.

TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL HEATING THE SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY. THE ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS MAY LINGER THE LONGEST OVER THE SRN DACKS. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60F WITH SOME U40S TO L50S
OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN GREENS. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE QUITE
COMFORTABLE.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE FCST AREA WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER S-CNTRL QUEBEC. IN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW ANOTHER PIECE OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY WILL SWING ACROSS UPSTATE
NY AND NEW ENGLAND. THE BEST CHC OF ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS DUE TO THE
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. H500 TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -15C TO -18C FROM ALY
NORTH AND WEST. THE H500 HEIGHTS ARE ABOUT 2-3 STD DEVS BELOW
NORMAL BASED ON THE LATEST GEFS FOR WED. H850 TEMPS WILL BE 1-2
STD DEVS BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS ON WED WILL BE IN THE M60S TO L70S
OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS...WITH A FEW 80F
READINGS NEAR KPOU. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR COOL NIGHT FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF AUG...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE U40S TO M50S OVER
THE FCST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RETURN TO MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THIS
PERIOD...AND IS EXPECTED TO LAST.  HOWEVER...WEAK DISTURBANCES
INTERMINGLED WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MEAN RATHER SMALL CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS ON SOME DAYS...PARTICULARLY THE MORE SOUTHERN ZONES...
WHICH WILL BE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO A QUASI-STATIONARY MID-ATLANTIC
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  IF ANYTHING...THE LATTER PORTION OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO HAVE THE DRIEST CONDITIONS...GOOD NEWS FOR
WEEKENDERS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S...AND LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE 50S WILL BE EXTREMELY COMMON...WITH LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY VARIATION.
THE NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS AT ALBANY...RESPECTIVELY...ARE IN THE
LOWER 80S AND LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE IMPACTED KALB...BUT SO FAR NOT THE OTHER
TAFS. THERE IS STILL CHANCE ANY OF THE TAFS COULD BE IMPACTED BY A
THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY AROUND 00Z. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING.

LATER OVERNIGHT...AS THE SKY IS PARTIALLY CLEAR...WIND LIGHT AND
DEWPOINTS STILL AROUND 60 OR A LITTLE HIGHER...MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. FOR NOW...MVFR CONDS WITH IFR FOG AT
KGFL.

AT THE TAF SITES SOUTHERLY WINDS BE AROUND 10KTS INTO THE
EVENING. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU NIGHT-FRI: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTAIN SOME HAIL GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.

AN UPPER LEVEL COULD GENERATE AN ADDITIONAL SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION ON TUESDAY.

OTHERWISE LOOK FOR A REDUCTION IN HEAT AND HUMIDITY...ESPECIALLY
ON WEDNESDAY. WITH A COLD POOL ALOFT AN ADDITIONAL  SHOWER IS
REMOTELY POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY BUT OTHERWISE IT IS DRY.

THE RH VALUES INCREASE TO 75 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH
VALUES WILL LOWER TO 35 TO 55 PERCENT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

SOUTH WIND WILL BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT. THE WIND WILL BECOME
WEST TO SOUTHWEST 5 TO 15 MPH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEST TO
NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH ON WEDNESDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR A WETTING RAIN WILL BE FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS RISE UP TO AROUND 1.5
INCHES AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO
SOME MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS. ALSO
SOME SHARP WITHIN BANK RISES WOULD BE EXPECTED ON STREAMS...CREEKS
AND SOME SMALL RIVERS.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES AND PASSES OVER THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY
RANGE FROM A TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS.

A TREND TOWARDS DRIER WEATHER WILL OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...AND
CONTINUE UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/SNYDER
SHORT TERM...HWJIV/WASULA
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...SNYDER
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 032117
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
517 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING AND MOVE TO
THE COAST BY MORNING. IT MAY TRIGGER STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
LINGER OVER QUEBEC THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...BRINGING COOLER AIR
INTO OUR REGION...AND TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY NORTH OF I90
AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...

AS OF 500 PM EDT...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED OUR REGION
THANKS TO A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. ONE CELL WHICH POPPED UP AT THE
AIRPORT AROUND 200 PM LOOKS TO BE THE RESULT OF SOUTHERN MOHAWK
CONVERGENCE. THE OTHERS...WERE TIED INTO THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
AND A SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO THE REGION. SOME OF THE CELLS BECAME
STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE PRODUCING SOME MARGINAL WIND AND HAIL
DAMAGE. PLEASE REFER TO OUR LATEST LOCAL STORM REPORTS FOR ALL THE
LATEST STORM REPORTS.

MU CAPE VALUES WERE IN THE VCNTY OF 1000-1500 J/KG...MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE ARND 6.5C. THE LATEST HRRR DOES NOT SHOW ANY REAL
ORGANIZED LINES (AS THERE MIGHT NOT BE QUITE ENOUGH 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR). HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL SCATTERED CELLS COULD
BECOME LOCALLY STRONG TO SEVERE THROUGH ABOUT SUNDOWN.

MEANWHILE...THE REAL STRONG COLD FRONT WAS STILL LAGGING BEHIND IN
WESTERN NEW YORK STATE WITH A FEW MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS. THEREFORE WILL CARRY HIGH CHANCES/LIKELY POPS INTO
THE EVENING HOURS...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR PARTIAL SUNSHINE THROUGH SUNDOWN AND
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S WITH DEWPOINTS
WELL INTO THE 60S.

OVERNIGHT ANY LEFT OVER CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH AS THE FRONT
PASSES THROUGH. IT WILL BE VARIABLY CLOUDY WITH LOWS EVENTUALLY
GETTING DOWN TO THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR WRN NEW ENGLAND BY
DAYBREAK. THE SFC DEWPT BOUNDARY WILL STILL BE PROGRESSING EAST
ACROSS ERN NY. THE NAM IS ADVERTISING ALOT OF INSTABILITY FOR TUE
WITH A DEEPLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THE GFS HAS LESS AGAIN...BUT
THERE IS A SMALL AREA OF HIGH INSTABILITY FROM THE THE MASS PIKE
SOUTH AND EAST INTO NW CT. SPC DOES HAVE LITCHFIELD CTY CLIPPED BY
THE MARGINAL RISK. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE AROUND 6.5C/KM
WITH ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR SOME STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL /NO ENHANCED WORDING YET/...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST. LOW- LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING
DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE PM. DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS OFF THE
ERN CATSKILLS/ERN DACKS MAY ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO GET INTO THE MID
AND U80S IN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION. EXPECT M70S TO
L80S IN MOST OTHER LOCATIONS...EXCEPT OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN
GREENS WHERE SOME U60S TO L70S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE COLD ADVECTION
REGIME...AS H850 TEMPS LOWER TO +10C TO +16C FROM NW TO SE OVER
THE FCST AREA BY THE LATE PM. A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SUNSET.

TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL HEATING THE SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY. THE ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS MAY LINGER THE LONGEST OVER THE SRN DACKS. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60F WITH SOME U40S TO L50S
OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN GREENS. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE QUITE
COMFORTABLE.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE FCST AREA WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER S-CNTRL QUEBEC. IN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW ANOTHER PIECE OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY WILL SWING ACROSS UPSTATE
NY AND NEW ENGLAND. THE BEST CHC OF ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS DUE TO THE
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. H500 TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -15C TO -18C FROM ALY
NORTH AND WEST. THE H500 HEIGHTS ARE ABOUT 2-3 STD DEVS BELOW
NORMAL BASED ON THE LATEST GEFS FOR WED. H850 TEMPS WILL BE 1-2
STD DEVS BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS ON WED WILL BE IN THE M60S TO L70S
OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS...WITH A FEW 80F
READINGS NEAR KPOU. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR COOL NIGHT FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF AUG...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE U40S TO M50S OVER
THE FCST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RETURN TO MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THIS
PERIOD...AND IS EXPECTED TO LAST.  HOWEVER...WEAK DISTURBANCES
INTERMINGLED WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MEAN RATHER SMALL CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS ON SOME DAYS...PARTICULARLY THE MORE SOUTHERN ZONES...
WHICH WILL BE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO A QUASI-STATIONARY MID-ATLANTIC
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  IF ANYTHING...THE LATTER PORTION OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO HAVE THE DRIEST CONDITIONS...GOOD NEWS FOR
WEEKENDERS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S...AND LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE 50S WILL BE EXTREMELY COMMON...WITH LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY VARIATION.
THE NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS AT ALBANY...RESPECTIVELY...ARE IN THE
LOWER 80S AND LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE IMPACTED KALB...BUT SO FAR NOT THE OTHER
TAFS. THERE IS STILL CHANCE ANY OF THE TAFS COULD BE IMPACTED BY A
THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY AROUND 00Z. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING.

LATER OVERNIGHT...AS THE SKY IS PARTIALLY CLEAR...WIND LIGHT AND
DEWPOINTS STILL AROUND 60 OR A LITTLE HIGHER...MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. FOR NOW...MVFR CONDS WITH IFR FOG AT
KGFL.

AT THE TAF SITES SOUTHERLY WINDS BE AROUND 10KTS INTO THE
EVENING. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU NIGHT-FRI: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTAIN SOME HAIL GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.

AN UPPER LEVEL COULD GENERATE AN ADDITIONAL SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION ON TUESDAY.

OTHERWISE LOOK FOR A REDUCTION IN HEAT AND HUMIDITY...ESPECIALLY
ON WEDNESDAY. WITH A COLD POOL ALOFT AN ADDITIONAL  SHOWER IS
REMOTELY POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY BUT OTHERWISE IT IS DRY.

THE RH VALUES INCREASE TO 75 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH
VALUES WILL LOWER TO 35 TO 55 PERCENT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

SOUTH WIND WILL BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT. THE WIND WILL BECOME
WEST TO SOUTHWEST 5 TO 15 MPH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEST TO
NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH ON WEDNESDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR A WETTING RAIN WILL BE FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS RISE UP TO AROUND 1.5
INCHES AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO
SOME MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS. ALSO
SOME SHARP WITHIN BANK RISES WOULD BE EXPECTED ON STREAMS...CREEKS
AND SOME SMALL RIVERS.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES AND PASSES OVER THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY
RANGE FROM A TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS.

A TREND TOWARDS DRIER WEATHER WILL OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...AND
CONTINUE UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/SNYDER
SHORT TERM...HWJIV/WASULA
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...SNYDER
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA



000
FXUS61 KALY 032117
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
517 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING AND MOVE TO
THE COAST BY MORNING. IT MAY TRIGGER STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
LINGER OVER QUEBEC THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...BRINGING COOLER AIR
INTO OUR REGION...AND TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY NORTH OF I90
AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...

AS OF 500 PM EDT...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED OUR REGION
THANKS TO A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. ONE CELL WHICH POPPED UP AT THE
AIRPORT AROUND 200 PM LOOKS TO BE THE RESULT OF SOUTHERN MOHAWK
CONVERGENCE. THE OTHERS...WERE TIED INTO THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
AND A SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO THE REGION. SOME OF THE CELLS BECAME
STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE PRODUCING SOME MARGINAL WIND AND HAIL
DAMAGE. PLEASE REFER TO OUR LATEST LOCAL STORM REPORTS FOR ALL THE
LATEST STORM REPORTS.

MU CAPE VALUES WERE IN THE VCNTY OF 1000-1500 J/KG...MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE ARND 6.5C. THE LATEST HRRR DOES NOT SHOW ANY REAL
ORGANIZED LINES (AS THERE MIGHT NOT BE QUITE ENOUGH 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR). HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL SCATTERED CELLS COULD
BECOME LOCALLY STRONG TO SEVERE THROUGH ABOUT SUNDOWN.

MEANWHILE...THE REAL STRONG COLD FRONT WAS STILL LAGGING BEHIND IN
WESTERN NEW YORK STATE WITH A FEW MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS. THEREFORE WILL CARRY HIGH CHANCES/LIKELY POPS INTO
THE EVENING HOURS...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR PARTIAL SUNSHINE THROUGH SUNDOWN AND
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S WITH DEWPOINTS
WELL INTO THE 60S.

OVERNIGHT ANY LEFT OVER CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH AS THE FRONT
PASSES THROUGH. IT WILL BE VARIABLY CLOUDY WITH LOWS EVENTUALLY
GETTING DOWN TO THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR WRN NEW ENGLAND BY
DAYBREAK. THE SFC DEWPT BOUNDARY WILL STILL BE PROGRESSING EAST
ACROSS ERN NY. THE NAM IS ADVERTISING ALOT OF INSTABILITY FOR TUE
WITH A DEEPLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THE GFS HAS LESS AGAIN...BUT
THERE IS A SMALL AREA OF HIGH INSTABILITY FROM THE THE MASS PIKE
SOUTH AND EAST INTO NW CT. SPC DOES HAVE LITCHFIELD CTY CLIPPED BY
THE MARGINAL RISK. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE AROUND 6.5C/KM
WITH ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR SOME STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL /NO ENHANCED WORDING YET/...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST. LOW- LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING
DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE PM. DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS OFF THE
ERN CATSKILLS/ERN DACKS MAY ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO GET INTO THE MID
AND U80S IN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION. EXPECT M70S TO
L80S IN MOST OTHER LOCATIONS...EXCEPT OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN
GREENS WHERE SOME U60S TO L70S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE COLD ADVECTION
REGIME...AS H850 TEMPS LOWER TO +10C TO +16C FROM NW TO SE OVER
THE FCST AREA BY THE LATE PM. A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SUNSET.

TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL HEATING THE SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY. THE ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS MAY LINGER THE LONGEST OVER THE SRN DACKS. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60F WITH SOME U40S TO L50S
OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN GREENS. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE QUITE
COMFORTABLE.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE FCST AREA WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER S-CNTRL QUEBEC. IN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW ANOTHER PIECE OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY WILL SWING ACROSS UPSTATE
NY AND NEW ENGLAND. THE BEST CHC OF ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS DUE TO THE
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. H500 TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -15C TO -18C FROM ALY
NORTH AND WEST. THE H500 HEIGHTS ARE ABOUT 2-3 STD DEVS BELOW
NORMAL BASED ON THE LATEST GEFS FOR WED. H850 TEMPS WILL BE 1-2
STD DEVS BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS ON WED WILL BE IN THE M60S TO L70S
OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS...WITH A FEW 80F
READINGS NEAR KPOU. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR COOL NIGHT FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF AUG...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE U40S TO M50S OVER
THE FCST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RETURN TO MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THIS
PERIOD...AND IS EXPECTED TO LAST.  HOWEVER...WEAK DISTURBANCES
INTERMINGLED WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MEAN RATHER SMALL CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS ON SOME DAYS...PARTICULARLY THE MORE SOUTHERN ZONES...
WHICH WILL BE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO A QUASI-STATIONARY MID-ATLANTIC
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  IF ANYTHING...THE LATTER PORTION OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO HAVE THE DRIEST CONDITIONS...GOOD NEWS FOR
WEEKENDERS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S...AND LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE 50S WILL BE EXTREMELY COMMON...WITH LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY VARIATION.
THE NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS AT ALBANY...RESPECTIVELY...ARE IN THE
LOWER 80S AND LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE IMPACTED KALB...BUT SO FAR NOT THE OTHER
TAFS. THERE IS STILL CHANCE ANY OF THE TAFS COULD BE IMPACTED BY A
THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY AROUND 00Z. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING.

LATER OVERNIGHT...AS THE SKY IS PARTIALLY CLEAR...WIND LIGHT AND
DEWPOINTS STILL AROUND 60 OR A LITTLE HIGHER...MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. FOR NOW...MVFR CONDS WITH IFR FOG AT
KGFL.

AT THE TAF SITES SOUTHERLY WINDS BE AROUND 10KTS INTO THE
EVENING. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU NIGHT-FRI: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTAIN SOME HAIL GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.

AN UPPER LEVEL COULD GENERATE AN ADDITIONAL SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION ON TUESDAY.

OTHERWISE LOOK FOR A REDUCTION IN HEAT AND HUMIDITY...ESPECIALLY
ON WEDNESDAY. WITH A COLD POOL ALOFT AN ADDITIONAL  SHOWER IS
REMOTELY POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY BUT OTHERWISE IT IS DRY.

THE RH VALUES INCREASE TO 75 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH
VALUES WILL LOWER TO 35 TO 55 PERCENT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

SOUTH WIND WILL BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT. THE WIND WILL BECOME
WEST TO SOUTHWEST 5 TO 15 MPH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEST TO
NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH ON WEDNESDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR A WETTING RAIN WILL BE FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS RISE UP TO AROUND 1.5
INCHES AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO
SOME MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS. ALSO
SOME SHARP WITHIN BANK RISES WOULD BE EXPECTED ON STREAMS...CREEKS
AND SOME SMALL RIVERS.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES AND PASSES OVER THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY
RANGE FROM A TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS.

A TREND TOWARDS DRIER WEATHER WILL OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...AND
CONTINUE UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/SNYDER
SHORT TERM...HWJIV/WASULA
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...SNYDER
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 032117
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
517 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING AND MOVE TO
THE COAST BY MORNING. IT MAY TRIGGER STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
LINGER OVER QUEBEC THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...BRINGING COOLER AIR
INTO OUR REGION...AND TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY NORTH OF I90
AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...

AS OF 500 PM EDT...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED OUR REGION
THANKS TO A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. ONE CELL WHICH POPPED UP AT THE
AIRPORT AROUND 200 PM LOOKS TO BE THE RESULT OF SOUTHERN MOHAWK
CONVERGENCE. THE OTHERS...WERE TIED INTO THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
AND A SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO THE REGION. SOME OF THE CELLS BECAME
STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE PRODUCING SOME MARGINAL WIND AND HAIL
DAMAGE. PLEASE REFER TO OUR LATEST LOCAL STORM REPORTS FOR ALL THE
LATEST STORM REPORTS.

MU CAPE VALUES WERE IN THE VCNTY OF 1000-1500 J/KG...MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE ARND 6.5C. THE LATEST HRRR DOES NOT SHOW ANY REAL
ORGANIZED LINES (AS THERE MIGHT NOT BE QUITE ENOUGH 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR). HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL SCATTERED CELLS COULD
BECOME LOCALLY STRONG TO SEVERE THROUGH ABOUT SUNDOWN.

MEANWHILE...THE REAL STRONG COLD FRONT WAS STILL LAGGING BEHIND IN
WESTERN NEW YORK STATE WITH A FEW MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS. THEREFORE WILL CARRY HIGH CHANCES/LIKELY POPS INTO
THE EVENING HOURS...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR PARTIAL SUNSHINE THROUGH SUNDOWN AND
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S WITH DEWPOINTS
WELL INTO THE 60S.

OVERNIGHT ANY LEFT OVER CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH AS THE FRONT
PASSES THROUGH. IT WILL BE VARIABLY CLOUDY WITH LOWS EVENTUALLY
GETTING DOWN TO THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR WRN NEW ENGLAND BY
DAYBREAK. THE SFC DEWPT BOUNDARY WILL STILL BE PROGRESSING EAST
ACROSS ERN NY. THE NAM IS ADVERTISING ALOT OF INSTABILITY FOR TUE
WITH A DEEPLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THE GFS HAS LESS AGAIN...BUT
THERE IS A SMALL AREA OF HIGH INSTABILITY FROM THE THE MASS PIKE
SOUTH AND EAST INTO NW CT. SPC DOES HAVE LITCHFIELD CTY CLIPPED BY
THE MARGINAL RISK. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE AROUND 6.5C/KM
WITH ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR SOME STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL /NO ENHANCED WORDING YET/...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST. LOW- LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING
DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE PM. DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS OFF THE
ERN CATSKILLS/ERN DACKS MAY ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO GET INTO THE MID
AND U80S IN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION. EXPECT M70S TO
L80S IN MOST OTHER LOCATIONS...EXCEPT OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN
GREENS WHERE SOME U60S TO L70S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE COLD ADVECTION
REGIME...AS H850 TEMPS LOWER TO +10C TO +16C FROM NW TO SE OVER
THE FCST AREA BY THE LATE PM. A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SUNSET.

TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL HEATING THE SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY. THE ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS MAY LINGER THE LONGEST OVER THE SRN DACKS. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60F WITH SOME U40S TO L50S
OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN GREENS. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE QUITE
COMFORTABLE.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE FCST AREA WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER S-CNTRL QUEBEC. IN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW ANOTHER PIECE OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY WILL SWING ACROSS UPSTATE
NY AND NEW ENGLAND. THE BEST CHC OF ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS DUE TO THE
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. H500 TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -15C TO -18C FROM ALY
NORTH AND WEST. THE H500 HEIGHTS ARE ABOUT 2-3 STD DEVS BELOW
NORMAL BASED ON THE LATEST GEFS FOR WED. H850 TEMPS WILL BE 1-2
STD DEVS BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS ON WED WILL BE IN THE M60S TO L70S
OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS...WITH A FEW 80F
READINGS NEAR KPOU. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR COOL NIGHT FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF AUG...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE U40S TO M50S OVER
THE FCST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RETURN TO MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THIS
PERIOD...AND IS EXPECTED TO LAST.  HOWEVER...WEAK DISTURBANCES
INTERMINGLED WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MEAN RATHER SMALL CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS ON SOME DAYS...PARTICULARLY THE MORE SOUTHERN ZONES...
WHICH WILL BE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO A QUASI-STATIONARY MID-ATLANTIC
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  IF ANYTHING...THE LATTER PORTION OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO HAVE THE DRIEST CONDITIONS...GOOD NEWS FOR
WEEKENDERS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S...AND LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE 50S WILL BE EXTREMELY COMMON...WITH LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY VARIATION.
THE NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS AT ALBANY...RESPECTIVELY...ARE IN THE
LOWER 80S AND LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE IMPACTED KALB...BUT SO FAR NOT THE OTHER
TAFS. THERE IS STILL CHANCE ANY OF THE TAFS COULD BE IMPACTED BY A
THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY AROUND 00Z. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING.

LATER OVERNIGHT...AS THE SKY IS PARTIALLY CLEAR...WIND LIGHT AND
DEWPOINTS STILL AROUND 60 OR A LITTLE HIGHER...MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. FOR NOW...MVFR CONDS WITH IFR FOG AT
KGFL.

AT THE TAF SITES SOUTHERLY WINDS BE AROUND 10KTS INTO THE
EVENING. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU NIGHT-FRI: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTAIN SOME HAIL GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.

AN UPPER LEVEL COULD GENERATE AN ADDITIONAL SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION ON TUESDAY.

OTHERWISE LOOK FOR A REDUCTION IN HEAT AND HUMIDITY...ESPECIALLY
ON WEDNESDAY. WITH A COLD POOL ALOFT AN ADDITIONAL  SHOWER IS
REMOTELY POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY BUT OTHERWISE IT IS DRY.

THE RH VALUES INCREASE TO 75 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH
VALUES WILL LOWER TO 35 TO 55 PERCENT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

SOUTH WIND WILL BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT. THE WIND WILL BECOME
WEST TO SOUTHWEST 5 TO 15 MPH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEST TO
NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH ON WEDNESDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR A WETTING RAIN WILL BE FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS RISE UP TO AROUND 1.5
INCHES AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO
SOME MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS. ALSO
SOME SHARP WITHIN BANK RISES WOULD BE EXPECTED ON STREAMS...CREEKS
AND SOME SMALL RIVERS.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES AND PASSES OVER THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY
RANGE FROM A TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS.

A TREND TOWARDS DRIER WEATHER WILL OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...AND
CONTINUE UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/SNYDER
SHORT TERM...HWJIV/WASULA
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...SNYDER
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 032117
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
517 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING AND MOVE TO
THE COAST BY MORNING. IT MAY TRIGGER STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
LINGER OVER QUEBEC THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...BRINGING COOLER AIR
INTO OUR REGION...AND TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY NORTH OF I90
AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...

AS OF 500 PM EDT...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED OUR REGION
THANKS TO A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. ONE CELL WHICH POPPED UP AT THE
AIRPORT AROUND 200 PM LOOKS TO BE THE RESULT OF SOUTHERN MOHAWK
CONVERGENCE. THE OTHERS...WERE TIED INTO THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
AND A SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO THE REGION. SOME OF THE CELLS BECAME
STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE PRODUCING SOME MARGINAL WIND AND HAIL
DAMAGE. PLEASE REFER TO OUR LATEST LOCAL STORM REPORTS FOR ALL THE
LATEST STORM REPORTS.

MU CAPE VALUES WERE IN THE VCNTY OF 1000-1500 J/KG...MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE ARND 6.5C. THE LATEST HRRR DOES NOT SHOW ANY REAL
ORGANIZED LINES (AS THERE MIGHT NOT BE QUITE ENOUGH 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR). HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL SCATTERED CELLS COULD
BECOME LOCALLY STRONG TO SEVERE THROUGH ABOUT SUNDOWN.

MEANWHILE...THE REAL STRONG COLD FRONT WAS STILL LAGGING BEHIND IN
WESTERN NEW YORK STATE WITH A FEW MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS. THEREFORE WILL CARRY HIGH CHANCES/LIKELY POPS INTO
THE EVENING HOURS...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR PARTIAL SUNSHINE THROUGH SUNDOWN AND
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S WITH DEWPOINTS
WELL INTO THE 60S.

OVERNIGHT ANY LEFT OVER CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH AS THE FRONT
PASSES THROUGH. IT WILL BE VARIABLY CLOUDY WITH LOWS EVENTUALLY
GETTING DOWN TO THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR WRN NEW ENGLAND BY
DAYBREAK. THE SFC DEWPT BOUNDARY WILL STILL BE PROGRESSING EAST
ACROSS ERN NY. THE NAM IS ADVERTISING ALOT OF INSTABILITY FOR TUE
WITH A DEEPLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THE GFS HAS LESS AGAIN...BUT
THERE IS A SMALL AREA OF HIGH INSTABILITY FROM THE THE MASS PIKE
SOUTH AND EAST INTO NW CT. SPC DOES HAVE LITCHFIELD CTY CLIPPED BY
THE MARGINAL RISK. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE AROUND 6.5C/KM
WITH ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR SOME STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL /NO ENHANCED WORDING YET/...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST. LOW- LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING
DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE PM. DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS OFF THE
ERN CATSKILLS/ERN DACKS MAY ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO GET INTO THE MID
AND U80S IN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION. EXPECT M70S TO
L80S IN MOST OTHER LOCATIONS...EXCEPT OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN
GREENS WHERE SOME U60S TO L70S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE COLD ADVECTION
REGIME...AS H850 TEMPS LOWER TO +10C TO +16C FROM NW TO SE OVER
THE FCST AREA BY THE LATE PM. A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SUNSET.

TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL HEATING THE SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY. THE ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS MAY LINGER THE LONGEST OVER THE SRN DACKS. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60F WITH SOME U40S TO L50S
OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN GREENS. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE QUITE
COMFORTABLE.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE FCST AREA WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER S-CNTRL QUEBEC. IN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW ANOTHER PIECE OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY WILL SWING ACROSS UPSTATE
NY AND NEW ENGLAND. THE BEST CHC OF ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS DUE TO THE
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. H500 TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -15C TO -18C FROM ALY
NORTH AND WEST. THE H500 HEIGHTS ARE ABOUT 2-3 STD DEVS BELOW
NORMAL BASED ON THE LATEST GEFS FOR WED. H850 TEMPS WILL BE 1-2
STD DEVS BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS ON WED WILL BE IN THE M60S TO L70S
OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS...WITH A FEW 80F
READINGS NEAR KPOU. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR COOL NIGHT FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF AUG...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE U40S TO M50S OVER
THE FCST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RETURN TO MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THIS
PERIOD...AND IS EXPECTED TO LAST.  HOWEVER...WEAK DISTURBANCES
INTERMINGLED WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MEAN RATHER SMALL CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS ON SOME DAYS...PARTICULARLY THE MORE SOUTHERN ZONES...
WHICH WILL BE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO A QUASI-STATIONARY MID-ATLANTIC
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  IF ANYTHING...THE LATTER PORTION OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO HAVE THE DRIEST CONDITIONS...GOOD NEWS FOR
WEEKENDERS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S...AND LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE 50S WILL BE EXTREMELY COMMON...WITH LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY VARIATION.
THE NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS AT ALBANY...RESPECTIVELY...ARE IN THE
LOWER 80S AND LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE IMPACTED KALB...BUT SO FAR NOT THE OTHER
TAFS. THERE IS STILL CHANCE ANY OF THE TAFS COULD BE IMPACTED BY A
THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY AROUND 00Z. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING.

LATER OVERNIGHT...AS THE SKY IS PARTIALLY CLEAR...WIND LIGHT AND
DEWPOINTS STILL AROUND 60 OR A LITTLE HIGHER...MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. FOR NOW...MVFR CONDS WITH IFR FOG AT
KGFL.

AT THE TAF SITES SOUTHERLY WINDS BE AROUND 10KTS INTO THE
EVENING. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU NIGHT-FRI: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTAIN SOME HAIL GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.

AN UPPER LEVEL COULD GENERATE AN ADDITIONAL SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION ON TUESDAY.

OTHERWISE LOOK FOR A REDUCTION IN HEAT AND HUMIDITY...ESPECIALLY
ON WEDNESDAY. WITH A COLD POOL ALOFT AN ADDITIONAL  SHOWER IS
REMOTELY POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY BUT OTHERWISE IT IS DRY.

THE RH VALUES INCREASE TO 75 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH
VALUES WILL LOWER TO 35 TO 55 PERCENT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

SOUTH WIND WILL BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT. THE WIND WILL BECOME
WEST TO SOUTHWEST 5 TO 15 MPH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEST TO
NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH ON WEDNESDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR A WETTING RAIN WILL BE FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS RISE UP TO AROUND 1.5
INCHES AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO
SOME MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS. ALSO
SOME SHARP WITHIN BANK RISES WOULD BE EXPECTED ON STREAMS...CREEKS
AND SOME SMALL RIVERS.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES AND PASSES OVER THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY
RANGE FROM A TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS.

A TREND TOWARDS DRIER WEATHER WILL OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...AND
CONTINUE UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/SNYDER
SHORT TERM...HWJIV/WASULA
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...SNYDER
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA



000
FXUS61 KALY 032109
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
509 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING AND MOVE TO
THE COAST BY MORNING. IT MAY TRIGGER STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
LINGER OVER QUEBEC THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...BRINGING COOLER AIR
INTO OUR REGION...AND TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY NORTH OF I90
AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...

AS OF 500 PM EDT...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED OUR REGION
THANKS TO A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. ONE CELL WHICH POPPED UP AT THE
AIRPORT AROUND 200 PM LOOKS TO BE THE RESULT OF SOUTHERN MOHAWK
CONVERGENCE. THE OTHERS...WERE TIED INTO THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
AND A SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO THE REGION. SOME OF THE CELLS BECAME
STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE PRODUCING SOME MARGINAL WIND AND HAIL
DAMAGE. PLEASE REFER TO OUR LATEST LOCAL STORM REPORTS FOR ALL THE
LATEST STORM REPORTS.

MU CAPE VALUES WERE IN THE VCNTY OF 1000-1500 J/KG...MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE ARND 6.5C. THE LATEST HRRR DOES NOT SHOW ANY REAL
ORGANIZED LINES (AS THERE MIGHT NOT BE QUITE ENOUGH 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR). HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL SCATTERED CELLS COULD
BECOME LOCALLY STRONG TO SEVERE THROUGH ABOUT SUNDOWN.

MEANWHILE...THE REAL STRONG COLD FRONT WAS STILL LAGGING BEHIND IN
WESTERN NEW YORK STATE WITH A FEW MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS. THEREFORE WILL CARRY HIGH CHANCES/LIKELY POPS INTO
THE EVENING HOURS...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR PARTIAL SUNSHINE THROUGH SUNDOWN AND
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S WITH DEWPOINTS
WELL INTO THE 60S.

OVERNIGHT ANY LEFT OVER CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH AS THE FRONT
PASSES THROUGH. IT WILL BE VARIABLY CLOUDY WITH LOWS EVENTUALLY
GETTING DOWN TO THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR WRN NEW ENGLAND BY
DAYBREAK. THE SFC DEWPT BOUNDARY WILL STILL BE PROGRESSING EAST
ACROSS ERN NY. THE NAM IS ADVERTISING ALOT OF INSTABILITY FOR TUE
WITH A DEEPLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THE GFS HAS LESS AGAIN...BUT
THERE IS A SMALL AREA OF HIGH INSTABILITY FROM THE THE MASS PIKE
SOUTH AND EAST INTO NW CT. SPC DOES HAVE LITCHFIELD CTY CLIPPED BY
THE MARGINAL RISK. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE AROUND 6.5C/KM
WITH ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR SOME STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL /NO ENHANCED WORDING YET/...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST. LOW- LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING
DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE PM. DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS OFF THE
ERN CATSKILLS/ERN DACKS MAY ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO GET INTO THE MID
AND U80S IN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION. EXPECT M70S TO
L80S IN MOST OTHER LOCATIONS...EXCEPT OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN
GREENS WHERE SOME U60S TO L70S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE COLD ADVECTION
REGIME...AS H850 TEMPS LOWER TO +10C TO +16C FROM NW TO SE OVER
THE FCST AREA BY THE LATE PM. A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SUNSET.

TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL HEATING THE SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY. THE ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS MAY LINGER THE LONGEST OVER THE SRN DACKS. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60F WITH SOME U40S TO L50S
OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN GREENS. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE QUITE
COMFORTABLE.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE FCST AREA WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER S-CNTRL QUEBEC. IN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW ANOTHER PIECE OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY WILL SWING ACROSS UPSTATE
NY AND NEW ENGLAND. THE BEST CHC OF ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS DUE TO THE
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. H500 TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -15C TO -18C FROM ALY
NORTH AND WEST. THE H500 HEIGHTS ARE ABOUT 2-3 STD DEVS BELOW
NORMAL BASED ON THE LATEST GEFS FOR WED. H850 TEMPS WILL BE 1-2
STD DEVS BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS ON WED WILL BE IN THE M60S TO L70S
OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS...WITH A FEW 80F
READINGS NEAR KPOU. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR COOL NIGHT FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF AUG...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE U40S TO M50S OVER
THE FCST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RETURN TO MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THIS
PERIOD...AND IS EXPECTED TO LAST.  HOWEVER...WEAK DISTURBANCES
INTERMINGLED WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MEAN RATHER SMALL CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS ON SOME DAYS...PARTICULARLY THE MORE SOUTHERN ZONES...
WHICH WILL BE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO A QUASI-STATIONARY MID-ATLANTIC
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  IF ANYTHING...THE LATTER PORTION OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO HAVE THE DRIEST CONDITIONS...GOOD NEWS FOR
WEEKENDERS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S...AND LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE 50S WILL BE EXTREMELY COMMON...WITH LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY VARIATION.
THE NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS AT ALBANY...RESPECTIVELY...ARE IN THE
LOWER 80S AND LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE IMPACTED KALB...BUT SO FAR NOT THE OTHER
TAFS. THERE IS STILL CHANCE ANY OF THE TAFS COULD BE IMPACTED BY A
THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY AROUND 00Z. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING.

LATER OVERNIGHT...AS THE SKY IS PARTIALLY CLEAR...WIND LIGHT AND
DEWPOINTS STILL AROUND 60 OR A LITTLE HIGHER...MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. FOR NOW...MVFR CONDS WITH IFR FOG AT
KGFL.

AT THE TAF SITES SOUTHERLY WINDS BE AROUND 10KTS INTO THE
EVENING. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU NIGHT-FRI: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TODAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE COLD
FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING...BUT AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
ARRIVE FOR WEDNESDAY.

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 40 TO 60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...AND
INCREASE TO 75 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO
35 TO 55 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH
TODAY...AND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH TONIGHT. THE WINDS
WILL BE FORM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH ON TUESDAY WITH
THE FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS RISE UP TO AROUND 1.5
INCHES AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO
SOME MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS. ALSO
SOME SHARP WITHIN BANK RISES WOULD BE EXPECTED ON STREAMS...CREEKS
AND SOME SMALL RIVERS.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES AND PASSES OVER THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY
RANGE FROM A TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS.

A TREND TOWARDS DRIER WEATHER WILL OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...AND
CONTINUE UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/SNYDER
SHORT TERM...HWJIV/WASULA
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...SNYDER/HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 032109
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
509 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING AND MOVE TO
THE COAST BY MORNING. IT MAY TRIGGER STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
LINGER OVER QUEBEC THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...BRINGING COOLER AIR
INTO OUR REGION...AND TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY NORTH OF I90
AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...

AS OF 500 PM EDT...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED OUR REGION
THANKS TO A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. ONE CELL WHICH POPPED UP AT THE
AIRPORT AROUND 200 PM LOOKS TO BE THE RESULT OF SOUTHERN MOHAWK
CONVERGENCE. THE OTHERS...WERE TIED INTO THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
AND A SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO THE REGION. SOME OF THE CELLS BECAME
STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE PRODUCING SOME MARGINAL WIND AND HAIL
DAMAGE. PLEASE REFER TO OUR LATEST LOCAL STORM REPORTS FOR ALL THE
LATEST STORM REPORTS.

MU CAPE VALUES WERE IN THE VCNTY OF 1000-1500 J/KG...MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE ARND 6.5C. THE LATEST HRRR DOES NOT SHOW ANY REAL
ORGANIZED LINES (AS THERE MIGHT NOT BE QUITE ENOUGH 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR). HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL SCATTERED CELLS COULD
BECOME LOCALLY STRONG TO SEVERE THROUGH ABOUT SUNDOWN.

MEANWHILE...THE REAL STRONG COLD FRONT WAS STILL LAGGING BEHIND IN
WESTERN NEW YORK STATE WITH A FEW MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS. THEREFORE WILL CARRY HIGH CHANCES/LIKELY POPS INTO
THE EVENING HOURS...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR PARTIAL SUNSHINE THROUGH SUNDOWN AND
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S WITH DEWPOINTS
WELL INTO THE 60S.

OVERNIGHT ANY LEFT OVER CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH AS THE FRONT
PASSES THROUGH. IT WILL BE VARIABLY CLOUDY WITH LOWS EVENTUALLY
GETTING DOWN TO THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR WRN NEW ENGLAND BY
DAYBREAK. THE SFC DEWPT BOUNDARY WILL STILL BE PROGRESSING EAST
ACROSS ERN NY. THE NAM IS ADVERTISING ALOT OF INSTABILITY FOR TUE
WITH A DEEPLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THE GFS HAS LESS AGAIN...BUT
THERE IS A SMALL AREA OF HIGH INSTABILITY FROM THE THE MASS PIKE
SOUTH AND EAST INTO NW CT. SPC DOES HAVE LITCHFIELD CTY CLIPPED BY
THE MARGINAL RISK. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE AROUND 6.5C/KM
WITH ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR SOME STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL /NO ENHANCED WORDING YET/...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST. LOW- LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING
DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE PM. DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS OFF THE
ERN CATSKILLS/ERN DACKS MAY ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO GET INTO THE MID
AND U80S IN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION. EXPECT M70S TO
L80S IN MOST OTHER LOCATIONS...EXCEPT OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN
GREENS WHERE SOME U60S TO L70S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE COLD ADVECTION
REGIME...AS H850 TEMPS LOWER TO +10C TO +16C FROM NW TO SE OVER
THE FCST AREA BY THE LATE PM. A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SUNSET.

TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL HEATING THE SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY. THE ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS MAY LINGER THE LONGEST OVER THE SRN DACKS. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60F WITH SOME U40S TO L50S
OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN GREENS. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE QUITE
COMFORTABLE.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE FCST AREA WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER S-CNTRL QUEBEC. IN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW ANOTHER PIECE OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY WILL SWING ACROSS UPSTATE
NY AND NEW ENGLAND. THE BEST CHC OF ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS DUE TO THE
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. H500 TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -15C TO -18C FROM ALY
NORTH AND WEST. THE H500 HEIGHTS ARE ABOUT 2-3 STD DEVS BELOW
NORMAL BASED ON THE LATEST GEFS FOR WED. H850 TEMPS WILL BE 1-2
STD DEVS BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS ON WED WILL BE IN THE M60S TO L70S
OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS...WITH A FEW 80F
READINGS NEAR KPOU. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR COOL NIGHT FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF AUG...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE U40S TO M50S OVER
THE FCST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RETURN TO MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THIS
PERIOD...AND IS EXPECTED TO LAST.  HOWEVER...WEAK DISTURBANCES
INTERMINGLED WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MEAN RATHER SMALL CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS ON SOME DAYS...PARTICULARLY THE MORE SOUTHERN ZONES...
WHICH WILL BE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO A QUASI-STATIONARY MID-ATLANTIC
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  IF ANYTHING...THE LATTER PORTION OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO HAVE THE DRIEST CONDITIONS...GOOD NEWS FOR
WEEKENDERS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S...AND LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE 50S WILL BE EXTREMELY COMMON...WITH LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY VARIATION.
THE NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS AT ALBANY...RESPECTIVELY...ARE IN THE
LOWER 80S AND LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE IMPACTED KALB...BUT SO FAR NOT THE OTHER
TAFS. THERE IS STILL CHANCE ANY OF THE TAFS COULD BE IMPACTED BY A
THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY AROUND 00Z. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING.

LATER OVERNIGHT...AS THE SKY IS PARTIALLY CLEAR...WIND LIGHT AND
DEWPOINTS STILL AROUND 60 OR A LITTLE HIGHER...MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. FOR NOW...MVFR CONDS WITH IFR FOG AT
KGFL.

AT THE TAF SITES SOUTHERLY WINDS BE AROUND 10KTS INTO THE
EVENING. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU NIGHT-FRI: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TODAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE COLD
FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING...BUT AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
ARRIVE FOR WEDNESDAY.

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 40 TO 60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...AND
INCREASE TO 75 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO
35 TO 55 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH
TODAY...AND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH TONIGHT. THE WINDS
WILL BE FORM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH ON TUESDAY WITH
THE FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS RISE UP TO AROUND 1.5
INCHES AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO
SOME MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS. ALSO
SOME SHARP WITHIN BANK RISES WOULD BE EXPECTED ON STREAMS...CREEKS
AND SOME SMALL RIVERS.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES AND PASSES OVER THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY
RANGE FROM A TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS.

A TREND TOWARDS DRIER WEATHER WILL OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...AND
CONTINUE UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/SNYDER
SHORT TERM...HWJIV/WASULA
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...SNYDER/HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 032109
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
509 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING AND MOVE TO
THE COAST BY MORNING. IT MAY TRIGGER STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
LINGER OVER QUEBEC THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...BRINGING COOLER AIR
INTO OUR REGION...AND TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY NORTH OF I90
AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...

AS OF 500 PM EDT...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED OUR REGION
THANKS TO A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. ONE CELL WHICH POPPED UP AT THE
AIRPORT AROUND 200 PM LOOKS TO BE THE RESULT OF SOUTHERN MOHAWK
CONVERGENCE. THE OTHERS...WERE TIED INTO THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
AND A SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO THE REGION. SOME OF THE CELLS BECAME
STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE PRODUCING SOME MARGINAL WIND AND HAIL
DAMAGE. PLEASE REFER TO OUR LATEST LOCAL STORM REPORTS FOR ALL THE
LATEST STORM REPORTS.

MU CAPE VALUES WERE IN THE VCNTY OF 1000-1500 J/KG...MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE ARND 6.5C. THE LATEST HRRR DOES NOT SHOW ANY REAL
ORGANIZED LINES (AS THERE MIGHT NOT BE QUITE ENOUGH 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR). HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL SCATTERED CELLS COULD
BECOME LOCALLY STRONG TO SEVERE THROUGH ABOUT SUNDOWN.

MEANWHILE...THE REAL STRONG COLD FRONT WAS STILL LAGGING BEHIND IN
WESTERN NEW YORK STATE WITH A FEW MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS. THEREFORE WILL CARRY HIGH CHANCES/LIKELY POPS INTO
THE EVENING HOURS...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR PARTIAL SUNSHINE THROUGH SUNDOWN AND
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S WITH DEWPOINTS
WELL INTO THE 60S.

OVERNIGHT ANY LEFT OVER CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH AS THE FRONT
PASSES THROUGH. IT WILL BE VARIABLY CLOUDY WITH LOWS EVENTUALLY
GETTING DOWN TO THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR WRN NEW ENGLAND BY
DAYBREAK. THE SFC DEWPT BOUNDARY WILL STILL BE PROGRESSING EAST
ACROSS ERN NY. THE NAM IS ADVERTISING ALOT OF INSTABILITY FOR TUE
WITH A DEEPLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THE GFS HAS LESS AGAIN...BUT
THERE IS A SMALL AREA OF HIGH INSTABILITY FROM THE THE MASS PIKE
SOUTH AND EAST INTO NW CT. SPC DOES HAVE LITCHFIELD CTY CLIPPED BY
THE MARGINAL RISK. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE AROUND 6.5C/KM
WITH ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR SOME STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL /NO ENHANCED WORDING YET/...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST. LOW- LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING
DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE PM. DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS OFF THE
ERN CATSKILLS/ERN DACKS MAY ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO GET INTO THE MID
AND U80S IN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION. EXPECT M70S TO
L80S IN MOST OTHER LOCATIONS...EXCEPT OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN
GREENS WHERE SOME U60S TO L70S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE COLD ADVECTION
REGIME...AS H850 TEMPS LOWER TO +10C TO +16C FROM NW TO SE OVER
THE FCST AREA BY THE LATE PM. A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SUNSET.

TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL HEATING THE SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY. THE ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS MAY LINGER THE LONGEST OVER THE SRN DACKS. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60F WITH SOME U40S TO L50S
OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN GREENS. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE QUITE
COMFORTABLE.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE FCST AREA WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER S-CNTRL QUEBEC. IN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW ANOTHER PIECE OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY WILL SWING ACROSS UPSTATE
NY AND NEW ENGLAND. THE BEST CHC OF ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS DUE TO THE
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. H500 TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -15C TO -18C FROM ALY
NORTH AND WEST. THE H500 HEIGHTS ARE ABOUT 2-3 STD DEVS BELOW
NORMAL BASED ON THE LATEST GEFS FOR WED. H850 TEMPS WILL BE 1-2
STD DEVS BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS ON WED WILL BE IN THE M60S TO L70S
OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS...WITH A FEW 80F
READINGS NEAR KPOU. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR COOL NIGHT FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF AUG...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE U40S TO M50S OVER
THE FCST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RETURN TO MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THIS
PERIOD...AND IS EXPECTED TO LAST.  HOWEVER...WEAK DISTURBANCES
INTERMINGLED WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MEAN RATHER SMALL CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS ON SOME DAYS...PARTICULARLY THE MORE SOUTHERN ZONES...
WHICH WILL BE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO A QUASI-STATIONARY MID-ATLANTIC
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  IF ANYTHING...THE LATTER PORTION OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO HAVE THE DRIEST CONDITIONS...GOOD NEWS FOR
WEEKENDERS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S...AND LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE 50S WILL BE EXTREMELY COMMON...WITH LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY VARIATION.
THE NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS AT ALBANY...RESPECTIVELY...ARE IN THE
LOWER 80S AND LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE IMPACTED KALB...BUT SO FAR NOT THE OTHER
TAFS. THERE IS STILL CHANCE ANY OF THE TAFS COULD BE IMPACTED BY A
THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY AROUND 00Z. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING.

LATER OVERNIGHT...AS THE SKY IS PARTIALLY CLEAR...WIND LIGHT AND
DEWPOINTS STILL AROUND 60 OR A LITTLE HIGHER...MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. FOR NOW...MVFR CONDS WITH IFR FOG AT
KGFL.

AT THE TAF SITES SOUTHERLY WINDS BE AROUND 10KTS INTO THE
EVENING. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU NIGHT-FRI: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TODAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE COLD
FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING...BUT AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
ARRIVE FOR WEDNESDAY.

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 40 TO 60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...AND
INCREASE TO 75 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO
35 TO 55 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH
TODAY...AND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH TONIGHT. THE WINDS
WILL BE FORM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH ON TUESDAY WITH
THE FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS RISE UP TO AROUND 1.5
INCHES AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO
SOME MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS. ALSO
SOME SHARP WITHIN BANK RISES WOULD BE EXPECTED ON STREAMS...CREEKS
AND SOME SMALL RIVERS.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES AND PASSES OVER THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY
RANGE FROM A TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS.

A TREND TOWARDS DRIER WEATHER WILL OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...AND
CONTINUE UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/SNYDER
SHORT TERM...HWJIV/WASULA
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...SNYDER/HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 032109
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
509 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING AND MOVE TO
THE COAST BY MORNING. IT MAY TRIGGER STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
LINGER OVER QUEBEC THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...BRINGING COOLER AIR
INTO OUR REGION...AND TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY NORTH OF I90
AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...

AS OF 500 PM EDT...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED OUR REGION
THANKS TO A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. ONE CELL WHICH POPPED UP AT THE
AIRPORT AROUND 200 PM LOOKS TO BE THE RESULT OF SOUTHERN MOHAWK
CONVERGENCE. THE OTHERS...WERE TIED INTO THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
AND A SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO THE REGION. SOME OF THE CELLS BECAME
STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE PRODUCING SOME MARGINAL WIND AND HAIL
DAMAGE. PLEASE REFER TO OUR LATEST LOCAL STORM REPORTS FOR ALL THE
LATEST STORM REPORTS.

MU CAPE VALUES WERE IN THE VCNTY OF 1000-1500 J/KG...MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE ARND 6.5C. THE LATEST HRRR DOES NOT SHOW ANY REAL
ORGANIZED LINES (AS THERE MIGHT NOT BE QUITE ENOUGH 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR). HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL SCATTERED CELLS COULD
BECOME LOCALLY STRONG TO SEVERE THROUGH ABOUT SUNDOWN.

MEANWHILE...THE REAL STRONG COLD FRONT WAS STILL LAGGING BEHIND IN
WESTERN NEW YORK STATE WITH A FEW MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS. THEREFORE WILL CARRY HIGH CHANCES/LIKELY POPS INTO
THE EVENING HOURS...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR PARTIAL SUNSHINE THROUGH SUNDOWN AND
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S WITH DEWPOINTS
WELL INTO THE 60S.

OVERNIGHT ANY LEFT OVER CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH AS THE FRONT
PASSES THROUGH. IT WILL BE VARIABLY CLOUDY WITH LOWS EVENTUALLY
GETTING DOWN TO THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR WRN NEW ENGLAND BY
DAYBREAK. THE SFC DEWPT BOUNDARY WILL STILL BE PROGRESSING EAST
ACROSS ERN NY. THE NAM IS ADVERTISING ALOT OF INSTABILITY FOR TUE
WITH A DEEPLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THE GFS HAS LESS AGAIN...BUT
THERE IS A SMALL AREA OF HIGH INSTABILITY FROM THE THE MASS PIKE
SOUTH AND EAST INTO NW CT. SPC DOES HAVE LITCHFIELD CTY CLIPPED BY
THE MARGINAL RISK. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE AROUND 6.5C/KM
WITH ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR SOME STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL /NO ENHANCED WORDING YET/...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST. LOW- LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING
DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE PM. DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS OFF THE
ERN CATSKILLS/ERN DACKS MAY ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO GET INTO THE MID
AND U80S IN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION. EXPECT M70S TO
L80S IN MOST OTHER LOCATIONS...EXCEPT OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN
GREENS WHERE SOME U60S TO L70S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE COLD ADVECTION
REGIME...AS H850 TEMPS LOWER TO +10C TO +16C FROM NW TO SE OVER
THE FCST AREA BY THE LATE PM. A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SUNSET.

TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL HEATING THE SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY. THE ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS MAY LINGER THE LONGEST OVER THE SRN DACKS. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60F WITH SOME U40S TO L50S
OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN GREENS. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE QUITE
COMFORTABLE.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE FCST AREA WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER S-CNTRL QUEBEC. IN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW ANOTHER PIECE OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY WILL SWING ACROSS UPSTATE
NY AND NEW ENGLAND. THE BEST CHC OF ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS DUE TO THE
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. H500 TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -15C TO -18C FROM ALY
NORTH AND WEST. THE H500 HEIGHTS ARE ABOUT 2-3 STD DEVS BELOW
NORMAL BASED ON THE LATEST GEFS FOR WED. H850 TEMPS WILL BE 1-2
STD DEVS BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS ON WED WILL BE IN THE M60S TO L70S
OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS...WITH A FEW 80F
READINGS NEAR KPOU. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR COOL NIGHT FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF AUG...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE U40S TO M50S OVER
THE FCST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RETURN TO MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THIS
PERIOD...AND IS EXPECTED TO LAST.  HOWEVER...WEAK DISTURBANCES
INTERMINGLED WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MEAN RATHER SMALL CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS ON SOME DAYS...PARTICULARLY THE MORE SOUTHERN ZONES...
WHICH WILL BE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO A QUASI-STATIONARY MID-ATLANTIC
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  IF ANYTHING...THE LATTER PORTION OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO HAVE THE DRIEST CONDITIONS...GOOD NEWS FOR
WEEKENDERS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S...AND LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE 50S WILL BE EXTREMELY COMMON...WITH LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY VARIATION.
THE NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS AT ALBANY...RESPECTIVELY...ARE IN THE
LOWER 80S AND LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE IMPACTED KALB...BUT SO FAR NOT THE OTHER
TAFS. THERE IS STILL CHANCE ANY OF THE TAFS COULD BE IMPACTED BY A
THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY AROUND 00Z. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING.

LATER OVERNIGHT...AS THE SKY IS PARTIALLY CLEAR...WIND LIGHT AND
DEWPOINTS STILL AROUND 60 OR A LITTLE HIGHER...MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. FOR NOW...MVFR CONDS WITH IFR FOG AT
KGFL.

AT THE TAF SITES SOUTHERLY WINDS BE AROUND 10KTS INTO THE
EVENING. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU NIGHT-FRI: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TODAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE COLD
FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING...BUT AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
ARRIVE FOR WEDNESDAY.

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 40 TO 60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...AND
INCREASE TO 75 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO
35 TO 55 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH
TODAY...AND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH TONIGHT. THE WINDS
WILL BE FORM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH ON TUESDAY WITH
THE FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS RISE UP TO AROUND 1.5
INCHES AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO
SOME MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS. ALSO
SOME SHARP WITHIN BANK RISES WOULD BE EXPECTED ON STREAMS...CREEKS
AND SOME SMALL RIVERS.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES AND PASSES OVER THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY
RANGE FROM A TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS.

A TREND TOWARDS DRIER WEATHER WILL OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...AND
CONTINUE UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/SNYDER
SHORT TERM...HWJIV/WASULA
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...SNYDER/HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KOKX 032052
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
452 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH TONIGHT THEN STALL ACROSS
THE AREA TUESDAY. THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
MAY IMPACT THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BACK IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST GENERALLY ON TRACK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS NEW
JERSEY TRENDING A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN GUIDANCE OWING TO
STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED WELL AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN NY AND PA...SO HAVE INCREASED POPS
SLIGHTLY FOR SOUTHEAST NY AND NORTHWEST NJ. ALTHOUGH THERE IS
INSTABILITY...WARMER AIR ALOFT IS HINDERING MORE VIGOROUS
DEVELOPMENT WITH LIMITED LIGHTNING ONLY NOTED IN STORMS WITH
STRONGER UPDRAFTS. AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY
WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING BEFORE THE FRONT APPROACHES.

STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EVENING...WITH A HIGH RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS
AT THE OCEAN BEACHES.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT...THOUGH SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
PRECIPITATION SPLITS AROUND NYC AND LONG ISLAND WITH GREATER
CHANCES TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY WITH A
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. VERY LITTLE
APPRECIABLE DIFFERENCE WILL BE FELT WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING
ABOVE NORMAL AND SIMILAR HUMIDITY AS MONDAY. LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
THE UPPER TROUGH BUILDS FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST...FORCING THE
ATTENDANT SURFACE FRONT FARTHER OFFSHORE WITH LOWER DEW POINTS
ADVECTING INTO THE REGION. A SUBSEQUENT DECREASE IN HUMIDITY WILL
BE FELT AS THIS OCCURS. BY MORNING...THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAINLY BE
CONFINED TO THE OFFSHORE WATERS.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE
OCEAN BEACHES THROUGH THIS EVENING. A RIP CURRENT STATEMENT IS IN
EFFECT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE OFFSHORE WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER
THE AREA INTO THURSDAY.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEPARTS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH SURFACE LOW OVER THE MID-
WEST TREKKING EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AFFECTING THE AREA MAINLY
FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THERE
IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE IT TRACKS AND THEREFORE HOW MUCH RAIN
WE DO RECEIVE. HOWEVER...IT DOES APPEAR MORE CERTAIN THAT A
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN EVENT IS IN STORE FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.

ISENTROPIC LIFT OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW NOTED IN BOTH THE
12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF...MAINLY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...SO THINKING
THIS WILL BE MORE STRATIFORM RAIN. SURFACE LOW CONTINUES ITS
APPROACH FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS DIFFER IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW.
THE 12Z ECMWF AND 12Z GFS AGREE WITH THE LOW BEING OVER THE NORTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC STATES BY 06Z SATURDAY. THEREAFTER...MODELS DIFFER
QUITE A BIT IN THEIR SOLUTIONS. 12Z ECMWF TREKS THE LOW NORTHEAST IN
SIDE THE 40/70 BENCHMARK THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY WHILE IT SLOWLY
STRENGTHENS WHILE THE GFS WEAKENS THE LOW OVER THE OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OFFSHORE AND WEAKER WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG
IT...WHILE THE 12Z CANADIAN IS AN OUTLIER BEING MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN
THE OTHER MODELS. THEREFORE...SIDED MORE ALONG THE LINES OF THE GFS
AND ECMWF AND KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY

LOW PRESSURE PUSHES AWAY FROM THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS.

OUTSIDE OF FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SEASONABLE FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. RAIN AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN ON FRIDAY...NOT
MAKING IT OUT OF THE 70S REGION-WIDE. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES MAY
PROVE TO BE A BIT LOWER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE
OCEAN BEACHES THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.
A RIP CURRENT STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH THIS EVE AND DRIFT OUT TO SEA ON TUE.

MAINLY VFR OUTSIDE OF TSTMS THRU THE TAF PERIOD.

TSTMS DEVELOPING OVER NY STATE AND NERN PA MAY IMPACT THE CITY AFT
21Z...SO A TEMPO HAS BEEN INCLUDED. OTHERWISE...ADDITIONAL SCT TSTM
DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE TNGT. COVERAGE AND EXACT TIMING UNCERTAIN TNGT
SO VCTS USED IN THE TAFS.

THERE COULD BE SOME MVFR VIS AT TIMES IN BR MAINLY KGON/KHPN/KSWF
AFT 4-6Z.

A GENERAL SW FLOW THRU THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE BACKED CLOSER
TO THE S THIS AFTN AND EVE ALONG THE COASTS DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE
ENHANCED FLOW.

 NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: THERE IS CHC THAT TSTMS DO NOT IMPACT THE ARPT
BEFORE 00Z. STRONGER WINDS MAY LINGER TIL AROUND 2Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: THERE IS CHC THAT TSTMS DO NOT IMPACT THE ARPT
BEFORE 00Z. STRONGER WINDS MAY LINGER TIL AROUND 2Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: THERE IS CHC THAT TSTMS DO NOT IMPACT THE ARPT
BEFORE 00Z.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: THERE IS CHC THAT TSTMS DO NOT IMPACT THE ARPT
BEFORE 00Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: THERE IS CHC THAT TSTMS DO NOT IMPACT THE ARPT
BEFORE 00Z. CHC FOR MVFR VIS AFT 4-6Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CHC THAT TSTMS HOLD TOGETHER AND IMPACT
THE ARPT AFT 23Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUE THROUGH SAT...
.REST OF TUE...SLGT CHC FOR TSTMS MAINLY CSTL TERMINALS. BECOMING
VFR OVERNIGHT.SW FLOW BECOMING NW OVERNIGHT.
.WED-THU...VFR. GENERALLY W FLOW.
.FRI...MVFR OR LOWER IN RAIN. WINDS BECOMING NE.
.SAT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN RAIN. NE WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS LATE TODAY...MOVING CLOSE TO
THE WATERS TONIGHT. WINDS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL REMAIN
STRONG THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE LIGHTENING
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT.

OCEAN SEAS BUILD DUE TO THE INCREASE IN THESE WINDS. SCA
STARTING AT 4 PM LOCAL AND THROUGH TONIGHT. OCCASIONAL 25 KT
GUSTS POSSIBLE FOR NY HARBOR...WESTERN SOUTH SHORE BAYS AND
WESTERN LI SOUND LATE MONDAY AFT INTO MONDAY EVENING.

OCEAN SEAS WILL BE SUBSIDING TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT 5 FT SEAS MAY
LINGER ON THE EASTERN OCEAN UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY WITH SUB SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MAY PASS OVER THE WATERS FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK. OCCASIONAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY WITH SUB SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LOW PRESSURE MAY PASS OVER OR NEAR THE WATERS
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
OCCASIONAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY ON
THE OCEAN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL PRODUCT LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL...WHICH COULD LEAD TO MINOR POOR DRAINAGE NUISANCE FLOODING.

A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN WHERE AND WHEN THE HEAVIEST
OF THE RAIN WILL FALL. ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD LIMIT
FLOODING POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP
WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ075-
     080-081-178-179.
     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ075-080-081-178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KOKX 032052
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
452 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH TONIGHT THEN STALL ACROSS
THE AREA TUESDAY. THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
MAY IMPACT THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BACK IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST GENERALLY ON TRACK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS NEW
JERSEY TRENDING A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN GUIDANCE OWING TO
STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED WELL AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN NY AND PA...SO HAVE INCREASED POPS
SLIGHTLY FOR SOUTHEAST NY AND NORTHWEST NJ. ALTHOUGH THERE IS
INSTABILITY...WARMER AIR ALOFT IS HINDERING MORE VIGOROUS
DEVELOPMENT WITH LIMITED LIGHTNING ONLY NOTED IN STORMS WITH
STRONGER UPDRAFTS. AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY
WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING BEFORE THE FRONT APPROACHES.

STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EVENING...WITH A HIGH RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS
AT THE OCEAN BEACHES.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT...THOUGH SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
PRECIPITATION SPLITS AROUND NYC AND LONG ISLAND WITH GREATER
CHANCES TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY WITH A
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. VERY LITTLE
APPRECIABLE DIFFERENCE WILL BE FELT WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING
ABOVE NORMAL AND SIMILAR HUMIDITY AS MONDAY. LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
THE UPPER TROUGH BUILDS FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST...FORCING THE
ATTENDANT SURFACE FRONT FARTHER OFFSHORE WITH LOWER DEW POINTS
ADVECTING INTO THE REGION. A SUBSEQUENT DECREASE IN HUMIDITY WILL
BE FELT AS THIS OCCURS. BY MORNING...THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAINLY BE
CONFINED TO THE OFFSHORE WATERS.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE
OCEAN BEACHES THROUGH THIS EVENING. A RIP CURRENT STATEMENT IS IN
EFFECT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE OFFSHORE WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER
THE AREA INTO THURSDAY.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEPARTS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH SURFACE LOW OVER THE MID-
WEST TREKKING EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AFFECTING THE AREA MAINLY
FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THERE
IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE IT TRACKS AND THEREFORE HOW MUCH RAIN
WE DO RECEIVE. HOWEVER...IT DOES APPEAR MORE CERTAIN THAT A
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN EVENT IS IN STORE FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.

ISENTROPIC LIFT OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW NOTED IN BOTH THE
12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF...MAINLY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...SO THINKING
THIS WILL BE MORE STRATIFORM RAIN. SURFACE LOW CONTINUES ITS
APPROACH FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS DIFFER IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW.
THE 12Z ECMWF AND 12Z GFS AGREE WITH THE LOW BEING OVER THE NORTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC STATES BY 06Z SATURDAY. THEREAFTER...MODELS DIFFER
QUITE A BIT IN THEIR SOLUTIONS. 12Z ECMWF TREKS THE LOW NORTHEAST IN
SIDE THE 40/70 BENCHMARK THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY WHILE IT SLOWLY
STRENGTHENS WHILE THE GFS WEAKENS THE LOW OVER THE OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OFFSHORE AND WEAKER WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG
IT...WHILE THE 12Z CANADIAN IS AN OUTLIER BEING MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN
THE OTHER MODELS. THEREFORE...SIDED MORE ALONG THE LINES OF THE GFS
AND ECMWF AND KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY

LOW PRESSURE PUSHES AWAY FROM THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS.

OUTSIDE OF FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SEASONABLE FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. RAIN AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN ON FRIDAY...NOT
MAKING IT OUT OF THE 70S REGION-WIDE. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES MAY
PROVE TO BE A BIT LOWER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE
OCEAN BEACHES THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.
A RIP CURRENT STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH THIS EVE AND DRIFT OUT TO SEA ON TUE.

MAINLY VFR OUTSIDE OF TSTMS THRU THE TAF PERIOD.

TSTMS DEVELOPING OVER NY STATE AND NERN PA MAY IMPACT THE CITY AFT
21Z...SO A TEMPO HAS BEEN INCLUDED. OTHERWISE...ADDITIONAL SCT TSTM
DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE TNGT. COVERAGE AND EXACT TIMING UNCERTAIN TNGT
SO VCTS USED IN THE TAFS.

THERE COULD BE SOME MVFR VIS AT TIMES IN BR MAINLY KGON/KHPN/KSWF
AFT 4-6Z.

A GENERAL SW FLOW THRU THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE BACKED CLOSER
TO THE S THIS AFTN AND EVE ALONG THE COASTS DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE
ENHANCED FLOW.

 NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: THERE IS CHC THAT TSTMS DO NOT IMPACT THE ARPT
BEFORE 00Z. STRONGER WINDS MAY LINGER TIL AROUND 2Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: THERE IS CHC THAT TSTMS DO NOT IMPACT THE ARPT
BEFORE 00Z. STRONGER WINDS MAY LINGER TIL AROUND 2Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: THERE IS CHC THAT TSTMS DO NOT IMPACT THE ARPT
BEFORE 00Z.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: THERE IS CHC THAT TSTMS DO NOT IMPACT THE ARPT
BEFORE 00Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: THERE IS CHC THAT TSTMS DO NOT IMPACT THE ARPT
BEFORE 00Z. CHC FOR MVFR VIS AFT 4-6Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CHC THAT TSTMS HOLD TOGETHER AND IMPACT
THE ARPT AFT 23Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUE THROUGH SAT...
.REST OF TUE...SLGT CHC FOR TSTMS MAINLY CSTL TERMINALS. BECOMING
VFR OVERNIGHT.SW FLOW BECOMING NW OVERNIGHT.
.WED-THU...VFR. GENERALLY W FLOW.
.FRI...MVFR OR LOWER IN RAIN. WINDS BECOMING NE.
.SAT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN RAIN. NE WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS LATE TODAY...MOVING CLOSE TO
THE WATERS TONIGHT. WINDS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL REMAIN
STRONG THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE LIGHTENING
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT.

OCEAN SEAS BUILD DUE TO THE INCREASE IN THESE WINDS. SCA
STARTING AT 4 PM LOCAL AND THROUGH TONIGHT. OCCASIONAL 25 KT
GUSTS POSSIBLE FOR NY HARBOR...WESTERN SOUTH SHORE BAYS AND
WESTERN LI SOUND LATE MONDAY AFT INTO MONDAY EVENING.

OCEAN SEAS WILL BE SUBSIDING TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT 5 FT SEAS MAY
LINGER ON THE EASTERN OCEAN UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY WITH SUB SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MAY PASS OVER THE WATERS FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK. OCCASIONAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY WITH SUB SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LOW PRESSURE MAY PASS OVER OR NEAR THE WATERS
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
OCCASIONAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY ON
THE OCEAN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL PRODUCT LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL...WHICH COULD LEAD TO MINOR POOR DRAINAGE NUISANCE FLOODING.

A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN WHERE AND WHEN THE HEAVIEST
OF THE RAIN WILL FALL. ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD LIMIT
FLOODING POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP
WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ075-
     080-081-178-179.
     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ075-080-081-178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KOKX 032052
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
452 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH TONIGHT THEN STALL ACROSS
THE AREA TUESDAY. THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
MAY IMPACT THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BACK IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST GENERALLY ON TRACK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS NEW
JERSEY TRENDING A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN GUIDANCE OWING TO
STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED WELL AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN NY AND PA...SO HAVE INCREASED POPS
SLIGHTLY FOR SOUTHEAST NY AND NORTHWEST NJ. ALTHOUGH THERE IS
INSTABILITY...WARMER AIR ALOFT IS HINDERING MORE VIGOROUS
DEVELOPMENT WITH LIMITED LIGHTNING ONLY NOTED IN STORMS WITH
STRONGER UPDRAFTS. AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY
WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING BEFORE THE FRONT APPROACHES.

STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EVENING...WITH A HIGH RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS
AT THE OCEAN BEACHES.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT...THOUGH SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
PRECIPITATION SPLITS AROUND NYC AND LONG ISLAND WITH GREATER
CHANCES TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY WITH A
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. VERY LITTLE
APPRECIABLE DIFFERENCE WILL BE FELT WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING
ABOVE NORMAL AND SIMILAR HUMIDITY AS MONDAY. LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
THE UPPER TROUGH BUILDS FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST...FORCING THE
ATTENDANT SURFACE FRONT FARTHER OFFSHORE WITH LOWER DEW POINTS
ADVECTING INTO THE REGION. A SUBSEQUENT DECREASE IN HUMIDITY WILL
BE FELT AS THIS OCCURS. BY MORNING...THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAINLY BE
CONFINED TO THE OFFSHORE WATERS.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE
OCEAN BEACHES THROUGH THIS EVENING. A RIP CURRENT STATEMENT IS IN
EFFECT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE OFFSHORE WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER
THE AREA INTO THURSDAY.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEPARTS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH SURFACE LOW OVER THE MID-
WEST TREKKING EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AFFECTING THE AREA MAINLY
FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THERE
IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE IT TRACKS AND THEREFORE HOW MUCH RAIN
WE DO RECEIVE. HOWEVER...IT DOES APPEAR MORE CERTAIN THAT A
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN EVENT IS IN STORE FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.

ISENTROPIC LIFT OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW NOTED IN BOTH THE
12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF...MAINLY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...SO THINKING
THIS WILL BE MORE STRATIFORM RAIN. SURFACE LOW CONTINUES ITS
APPROACH FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS DIFFER IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW.
THE 12Z ECMWF AND 12Z GFS AGREE WITH THE LOW BEING OVER THE NORTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC STATES BY 06Z SATURDAY. THEREAFTER...MODELS DIFFER
QUITE A BIT IN THEIR SOLUTIONS. 12Z ECMWF TREKS THE LOW NORTHEAST IN
SIDE THE 40/70 BENCHMARK THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY WHILE IT SLOWLY
STRENGTHENS WHILE THE GFS WEAKENS THE LOW OVER THE OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OFFSHORE AND WEAKER WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG
IT...WHILE THE 12Z CANADIAN IS AN OUTLIER BEING MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN
THE OTHER MODELS. THEREFORE...SIDED MORE ALONG THE LINES OF THE GFS
AND ECMWF AND KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY

LOW PRESSURE PUSHES AWAY FROM THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS.

OUTSIDE OF FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SEASONABLE FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. RAIN AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN ON FRIDAY...NOT
MAKING IT OUT OF THE 70S REGION-WIDE. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES MAY
PROVE TO BE A BIT LOWER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE
OCEAN BEACHES THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.
A RIP CURRENT STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH THIS EVE AND DRIFT OUT TO SEA ON TUE.

MAINLY VFR OUTSIDE OF TSTMS THRU THE TAF PERIOD.

TSTMS DEVELOPING OVER NY STATE AND NERN PA MAY IMPACT THE CITY AFT
21Z...SO A TEMPO HAS BEEN INCLUDED. OTHERWISE...ADDITIONAL SCT TSTM
DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE TNGT. COVERAGE AND EXACT TIMING UNCERTAIN TNGT
SO VCTS USED IN THE TAFS.

THERE COULD BE SOME MVFR VIS AT TIMES IN BR MAINLY KGON/KHPN/KSWF
AFT 4-6Z.

A GENERAL SW FLOW THRU THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE BACKED CLOSER
TO THE S THIS AFTN AND EVE ALONG THE COASTS DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE
ENHANCED FLOW.

 NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: THERE IS CHC THAT TSTMS DO NOT IMPACT THE ARPT
BEFORE 00Z. STRONGER WINDS MAY LINGER TIL AROUND 2Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: THERE IS CHC THAT TSTMS DO NOT IMPACT THE ARPT
BEFORE 00Z. STRONGER WINDS MAY LINGER TIL AROUND 2Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: THERE IS CHC THAT TSTMS DO NOT IMPACT THE ARPT
BEFORE 00Z.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: THERE IS CHC THAT TSTMS DO NOT IMPACT THE ARPT
BEFORE 00Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: THERE IS CHC THAT TSTMS DO NOT IMPACT THE ARPT
BEFORE 00Z. CHC FOR MVFR VIS AFT 4-6Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CHC THAT TSTMS HOLD TOGETHER AND IMPACT
THE ARPT AFT 23Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUE THROUGH SAT...
.REST OF TUE...SLGT CHC FOR TSTMS MAINLY CSTL TERMINALS. BECOMING
VFR OVERNIGHT.SW FLOW BECOMING NW OVERNIGHT.
.WED-THU...VFR. GENERALLY W FLOW.
.FRI...MVFR OR LOWER IN RAIN. WINDS BECOMING NE.
.SAT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN RAIN. NE WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS LATE TODAY...MOVING CLOSE TO
THE WATERS TONIGHT. WINDS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL REMAIN
STRONG THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE LIGHTENING
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT.

OCEAN SEAS BUILD DUE TO THE INCREASE IN THESE WINDS. SCA
STARTING AT 4 PM LOCAL AND THROUGH TONIGHT. OCCASIONAL 25 KT
GUSTS POSSIBLE FOR NY HARBOR...WESTERN SOUTH SHORE BAYS AND
WESTERN LI SOUND LATE MONDAY AFT INTO MONDAY EVENING.

OCEAN SEAS WILL BE SUBSIDING TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT 5 FT SEAS MAY
LINGER ON THE EASTERN OCEAN UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY WITH SUB SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MAY PASS OVER THE WATERS FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK. OCCASIONAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY WITH SUB SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LOW PRESSURE MAY PASS OVER OR NEAR THE WATERS
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
OCCASIONAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY ON
THE OCEAN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL PRODUCT LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL...WHICH COULD LEAD TO MINOR POOR DRAINAGE NUISANCE FLOODING.

A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN WHERE AND WHEN THE HEAVIEST
OF THE RAIN WILL FALL. ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD LIMIT
FLOODING POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP
WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ075-
     080-081-178-179.
     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ075-080-081-178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KOKX 032052
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
452 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH TONIGHT THEN STALL ACROSS
THE AREA TUESDAY. THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
MAY IMPACT THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BACK IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST GENERALLY ON TRACK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS NEW
JERSEY TRENDING A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN GUIDANCE OWING TO
STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED WELL AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN NY AND PA...SO HAVE INCREASED POPS
SLIGHTLY FOR SOUTHEAST NY AND NORTHWEST NJ. ALTHOUGH THERE IS
INSTABILITY...WARMER AIR ALOFT IS HINDERING MORE VIGOROUS
DEVELOPMENT WITH LIMITED LIGHTNING ONLY NOTED IN STORMS WITH
STRONGER UPDRAFTS. AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY
WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING BEFORE THE FRONT APPROACHES.

STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EVENING...WITH A HIGH RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS
AT THE OCEAN BEACHES.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT...THOUGH SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
PRECIPITATION SPLITS AROUND NYC AND LONG ISLAND WITH GREATER
CHANCES TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY WITH A
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. VERY LITTLE
APPRECIABLE DIFFERENCE WILL BE FELT WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING
ABOVE NORMAL AND SIMILAR HUMIDITY AS MONDAY. LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
THE UPPER TROUGH BUILDS FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST...FORCING THE
ATTENDANT SURFACE FRONT FARTHER OFFSHORE WITH LOWER DEW POINTS
ADVECTING INTO THE REGION. A SUBSEQUENT DECREASE IN HUMIDITY WILL
BE FELT AS THIS OCCURS. BY MORNING...THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAINLY BE
CONFINED TO THE OFFSHORE WATERS.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE
OCEAN BEACHES THROUGH THIS EVENING. A RIP CURRENT STATEMENT IS IN
EFFECT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE OFFSHORE WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER
THE AREA INTO THURSDAY.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEPARTS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH SURFACE LOW OVER THE MID-
WEST TREKKING EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AFFECTING THE AREA MAINLY
FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THERE
IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE IT TRACKS AND THEREFORE HOW MUCH RAIN
WE DO RECEIVE. HOWEVER...IT DOES APPEAR MORE CERTAIN THAT A
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN EVENT IS IN STORE FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.

ISENTROPIC LIFT OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW NOTED IN BOTH THE
12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF...MAINLY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...SO THINKING
THIS WILL BE MORE STRATIFORM RAIN. SURFACE LOW CONTINUES ITS
APPROACH FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS DIFFER IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW.
THE 12Z ECMWF AND 12Z GFS AGREE WITH THE LOW BEING OVER THE NORTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC STATES BY 06Z SATURDAY. THEREAFTER...MODELS DIFFER
QUITE A BIT IN THEIR SOLUTIONS. 12Z ECMWF TREKS THE LOW NORTHEAST IN
SIDE THE 40/70 BENCHMARK THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY WHILE IT SLOWLY
STRENGTHENS WHILE THE GFS WEAKENS THE LOW OVER THE OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OFFSHORE AND WEAKER WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG
IT...WHILE THE 12Z CANADIAN IS AN OUTLIER BEING MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN
THE OTHER MODELS. THEREFORE...SIDED MORE ALONG THE LINES OF THE GFS
AND ECMWF AND KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY

LOW PRESSURE PUSHES AWAY FROM THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS.

OUTSIDE OF FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SEASONABLE FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. RAIN AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN ON FRIDAY...NOT
MAKING IT OUT OF THE 70S REGION-WIDE. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES MAY
PROVE TO BE A BIT LOWER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE
OCEAN BEACHES THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.
A RIP CURRENT STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH THIS EVE AND DRIFT OUT TO SEA ON TUE.

MAINLY VFR OUTSIDE OF TSTMS THRU THE TAF PERIOD.

TSTMS DEVELOPING OVER NY STATE AND NERN PA MAY IMPACT THE CITY AFT
21Z...SO A TEMPO HAS BEEN INCLUDED. OTHERWISE...ADDITIONAL SCT TSTM
DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE TNGT. COVERAGE AND EXACT TIMING UNCERTAIN TNGT
SO VCTS USED IN THE TAFS.

THERE COULD BE SOME MVFR VIS AT TIMES IN BR MAINLY KGON/KHPN/KSWF
AFT 4-6Z.

A GENERAL SW FLOW THRU THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE BACKED CLOSER
TO THE S THIS AFTN AND EVE ALONG THE COASTS DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE
ENHANCED FLOW.

 NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: THERE IS CHC THAT TSTMS DO NOT IMPACT THE ARPT
BEFORE 00Z. STRONGER WINDS MAY LINGER TIL AROUND 2Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: THERE IS CHC THAT TSTMS DO NOT IMPACT THE ARPT
BEFORE 00Z. STRONGER WINDS MAY LINGER TIL AROUND 2Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: THERE IS CHC THAT TSTMS DO NOT IMPACT THE ARPT
BEFORE 00Z.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: THERE IS CHC THAT TSTMS DO NOT IMPACT THE ARPT
BEFORE 00Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: THERE IS CHC THAT TSTMS DO NOT IMPACT THE ARPT
BEFORE 00Z. CHC FOR MVFR VIS AFT 4-6Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CHC THAT TSTMS HOLD TOGETHER AND IMPACT
THE ARPT AFT 23Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUE THROUGH SAT...
.REST OF TUE...SLGT CHC FOR TSTMS MAINLY CSTL TERMINALS. BECOMING
VFR OVERNIGHT.SW FLOW BECOMING NW OVERNIGHT.
.WED-THU...VFR. GENERALLY W FLOW.
.FRI...MVFR OR LOWER IN RAIN. WINDS BECOMING NE.
.SAT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN RAIN. NE WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS LATE TODAY...MOVING CLOSE TO
THE WATERS TONIGHT. WINDS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL REMAIN
STRONG THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE LIGHTENING
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT.

OCEAN SEAS BUILD DUE TO THE INCREASE IN THESE WINDS. SCA
STARTING AT 4 PM LOCAL AND THROUGH TONIGHT. OCCASIONAL 25 KT
GUSTS POSSIBLE FOR NY HARBOR...WESTERN SOUTH SHORE BAYS AND
WESTERN LI SOUND LATE MONDAY AFT INTO MONDAY EVENING.

OCEAN SEAS WILL BE SUBSIDING TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT 5 FT SEAS MAY
LINGER ON THE EASTERN OCEAN UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY WITH SUB SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MAY PASS OVER THE WATERS FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK. OCCASIONAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY WITH SUB SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LOW PRESSURE MAY PASS OVER OR NEAR THE WATERS
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
OCCASIONAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY ON
THE OCEAN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL PRODUCT LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL...WHICH COULD LEAD TO MINOR POOR DRAINAGE NUISANCE FLOODING.

A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN WHERE AND WHEN THE HEAVIEST
OF THE RAIN WILL FALL. ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD LIMIT
FLOODING POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP
WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ075-
     080-081-178-179.
     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ075-080-081-178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KOKX 032052 CCA
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
452 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH TONIGHT THEN STALL ACROSS
THE AREA TUESDAY. THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
MAY IMPACT THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BACK IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST GENERALLY ON TRACK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS NEW
JERSEY TRENDING A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN GUIDANCE OWING TO
STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED WELL AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN NY AND PA...SO HAVE INCREASED POPS
SLIGHTLY FOR SOUTHEAST NY AND NORTHWEST NJ. ALTHOUGH THERE IS
INSTABILITY...WARMER AIR ALOFT IS HINDERING MORE VIGOROUS
DEVELOPMENT WITH LIMITED LIGHTNING ONLY NOTED IN STORMS WITH
STRONGER UPDRAFTS. AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY
WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING BEFORE THE FRONT APPROACHES.

STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EVENING...WITH A HIGH RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS
AT THE OCEAN BEACHES.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT...THOUGH SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
PRECIPITATION SPLITS AROUND NYC AND LONG ISLAND WITH GREATER
CHANCES TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE
OCEAN BEACHES THROUGH THIS EVENING. A RIP CURRENT STATEMENT IS IN
EFFECT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY WITH A
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. VERY LITTLE
APPRECIABLE DIFFERENCE WILL BE FELT WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING
ABOVE NORMAL AND SIMILAR HUMIDITY AS MONDAY. LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
THE UPPER TROUGH BUILDS FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST...FORCING THE
ATTENDANT SURFACE FRONT FARTHER OFFSHORE WITH LOWER DEW POINTS
ADVECTING INTO THE REGION. A SUBSEQUENT DECREASE IN HUMIDITY WILL
BE FELT AS THIS OCCURS. BY MORNING...THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAINLY BE
CONFINED TO THE OFFSHORE WATERS.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE
OCEAN BEACHES THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.
A RIP CURRENT STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE OFFSHORE WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER
THE AREA INTO THURSDAY.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEPARTS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH SURFACE LOW OVER THE MID-
WEST TREKKING EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AFFECTING THE AREA MAINLY
FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THERE
IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE IT TRACKS AND THEREFORE HOW MUCH RAIN
WE DO RECEIVE. HOWEVER...IT DOES APPEAR MORE CERTAIN THAT A
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN EVENT IS IN STORE FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.

ISENTROPIC LIFT OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW NOTED IN BOTH THE
12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF...MAINLY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...SO THINKING
THIS WILL BE MORE STRATIFORM RAIN. SURFACE LOW CONTINUES ITS
APPROACH FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS DIFFER IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW.
THE 12Z ECMWF AND 12Z GFS AGREE WITH THE LOW BEING OVER THE NORTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC STATES BY 06Z SATURDAY. THEREAFTER...MODELS DIFFER
QUITE A BIT IN THEIR SOLUTIONS. 12Z ECMWF TREKS THE LOW NORTHEAST IN
SIDE THE 40/70 BENCHMARK THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY WHILE IT SLOWLY
STRENGTHENS WHILE THE GFS WEAKENS THE LOW OVER THE OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OFFSHORE AND WEAKER WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG
IT...WHILE THE 12Z CANADIAN IS AN OUTLIER BEING MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN
THE OTHER MODELS. THEREFORE...SIDED MORE ALONG THE LINES OF THE GFS
AND ECMWF AND KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY

LOW PRESSURE PUSHES AWAY FROM THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS.

OUTSIDE OF FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SEASONABLE FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. RAIN AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN ON FRIDAY...NOT
MAKING IT OUT OF THE 70S REGION-WIDE. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES MAY
PROVE TO BE A BIT LOWER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH THIS EVE AND DRIFT OUT TO SEA ON TUE.

MAINLY VFR OUTSIDE OF TSTMS THRU THE TAF PERIOD.

TSTMS DEVELOPING OVER NY STATE AND NERN PA MAY IMPACT THE CITY AFT
21Z...SO A TEMPO HAS BEEN INCLUDED. OTHERWISE...ADDITIONAL SCT TSTM
DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE TNGT. COVERAGE AND EXACT TIMING UNCERTAIN TNGT
SO VCTS USED IN THE TAFS.

THERE COULD BE SOME MVFR VIS AT TIMES IN BR MAINLY KGON/KHPN/KSWF
AFT 4-6Z.

A GENERAL SW FLOW THRU THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE BACKED CLOSER
TO THE S THIS AFTN AND EVE ALONG THE COASTS DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE
ENHANCED FLOW.

 NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: THERE IS CHC THAT TSTMS DO NOT IMPACT THE ARPT
BEFORE 00Z. STRONGER WINDS MAY LINGER TIL AROUND 2Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: THERE IS CHC THAT TSTMS DO NOT IMPACT THE ARPT
BEFORE 00Z. STRONGER WINDS MAY LINGER TIL AROUND 2Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: THERE IS CHC THAT TSTMS DO NOT IMPACT THE ARPT
BEFORE 00Z.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: THERE IS CHC THAT TSTMS DO NOT IMPACT THE ARPT
BEFORE 00Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: THERE IS CHC THAT TSTMS DO NOT IMPACT THE ARPT
BEFORE 00Z. CHC FOR MVFR VIS AFT 4-6Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CHC THAT TSTMS HOLD TOGETHER AND IMPACT
THE ARPT AFT 23Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUE THROUGH SAT...
.REST OF TUE...SLGT CHC FOR TSTMS MAINLY CSTL TERMINALS. BECOMING
VFR OVERNIGHT.SW FLOW BECOMING NW OVERNIGHT.
.WED-THU...VFR. GENERALLY W FLOW.
.FRI...MVFR OR LOWER IN RAIN. WINDS BECOMING NE.
.SAT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN RAIN. NE WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS LATE TODAY...MOVING CLOSE TO
THE WATERS TONIGHT. WINDS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL REMAIN
STRONG THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE LIGHTENING
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT.

OCEAN SEAS BUILD DUE TO THE INCREASE IN THESE WINDS. SCA
STARTING AT 4 PM LOCAL AND THROUGH TONIGHT. OCCASIONAL 25 KT
GUSTS POSSIBLE FOR NY HARBOR...WESTERN SOUTH SHORE BAYS AND
WESTERN LI SOUND LATE MONDAY AFT INTO MONDAY EVENING.

OCEAN SEAS WILL BE SUBSIDING TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT 5 FT SEAS MAY
LINGER ON THE EASTERN OCEAN UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY WITH SUB SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MAY PASS OVER THE WATERS FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK. OCCASIONAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY WITH SUB SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LOW PRESSURE MAY PASS OVER OR NEAR THE WATERS
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
OCCASIONAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY ON
THE OCEAN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL PRODUCT LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL...WHICH COULD LEAD TO MINOR POOR DRAINAGE NUISANCE FLOODING.

A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN WHERE AND WHEN THE HEAVIEST
OF THE RAIN WILL FALL. ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD LIMIT
FLOODING POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP
WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ075-
     080-081-178-179.
     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ075-080-081-178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KALY 032024
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
424 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING AND MOVE TO
THE COAST BY MORNING. IT MAY TRIGGER STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
LINGER OVER QUEBEC THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...BRINGING COOLER AIR
INTO OUR REGION...AND TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY NORTH OF I90
AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...

AS OF 930 AM EDT...MOST OF THE CIN IS MIXED OUT...A FINE LINE/PRE
FRONTAL TROF IS FM SLK-BGM AND APPEARS IT WILL BE THE FOCUS OF
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTN. AHEAD OF IT SKIES HAVE BEEN
SUNNY...TD ARE IN THE LOWER 60S AND TEMPS ARE IN THE 80S WITH A
FEW MORE HOURS OF DIURNAL HEATING TO GO. AT 500HPA THE FIRST
SHORT WV ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE LARGE QB/ONT CUT OFF IS
IN THE E GRTLKS AND MVNG SLOWLY E WITH THE BEST DYNAMICS N OR N OF
FCA.

MU CAPE VALUES ARE NOW IN THE VCNTY OF 1000-1500 J/KG...MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE ARND 6.5C. SCT TSTMS WILL FORM ALONG THIS LINE
DURING THE AFTN HRS...WHICH WILL BE COME STRONG AND SOME MAY BE
SEVERE.

THIS SCT-BKN LINE OF STORMS WILL PROGRESS IN BOWING SEGMENTS
ACROSS THE RGN DURING THE AFTN AND EVNG. SEE LATEST SPC DISC. PRE-
FRONTAL TROF WILL REACH SVT-RDG BY EVNG...AND DRIFT EAST AS
ACTIVITY DIM AND ATMOS STABILIZES. OVERNIGHT THIS BOUNDARY WILL
SHIFT EAST AS THE MAIN CDFNT MOVES INTO THE E GRTLKS...AND THEN
TO COAST BY DAYBREAK.

WITH CYCLONIC 500HPA FLOW ACROSS THE RGN AND COOLING AT 500HPACLOUDS
WILL INCR N TWRD DAYBREAK. MINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR WRN NEW ENGLAND BY
DAYBREAK. THE SFC DEWPT BOUNDARY WILL STILL BE PROGRESSING EAST
ACROSS ERN NY. THE NAM IS ADVERTISING ALOT OF INSTABILITY FOR TUE
WITH A DEEPLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THE GFS HAS LESS AGAIN...BUT
THERE IS A SMALL AREA OF HIGH INSTABILITY FROM THE THE MASS PIKE
SOUTH AND EAST INTO NW CT. SPC DOES HAVE LITCHFIELD CTY CLIPPED BY
THE MARGINAL RISK. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE AROUND 6.5C/KM
WITH ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR SOME STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL /NO ENHANCED WORDING YET/...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST. LOW- LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING
DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE PM. DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS OFF THE
ERN CATSKILLS/ERN DACKS MAY ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO GET INTO THE MID
AND U80S IN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION. EXPECT M70S TO
L80S IN MOST OTHER LOCATIONS...EXCEPT OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN
GREENS WHERE SOME U60S TO L70S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE COLD ADVECTION
REGIME...AS H850 TEMPS LOWER TO +10C TO +16C FROM NW TO SE OVER
THE FCST AREA BY THE LATE PM. A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SUNSET.

TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL HEATING THE SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY. THE ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS MAY LINGER THE LONGEST OVER THE SRN DACKS. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60F WITH SOME U40S TO L50S
OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN GREENS. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE QUITE
COMFORTABLE.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE FCST AREA WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER S-CNTRL QUEBEC. IN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW ANOTHER PIECE OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY WILL SWING ACROSS UPSTATE
NY AND NEW ENGLAND. THE BEST CHC OF ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS DUE TO THE
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. H500 TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -15C TO -18C FROM ALY
NORTH AND WEST. THE H500 HEIGHTS ARE ABOUT 2-3 STD DEVS BELOW
NORMAL BASED ON THE LATEST GEFS FOR WED. H850 TEMPS WILL BE 1-2
STD DEVS BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS ON WED WILL BE IN THE M60S TO L70S
OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS...WITH A FEW 80F
READINGS NEAR KPOU. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR COOL NIGHT FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF AUG...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE U40S TO M50S OVER
THE FCST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

A RETURN TO MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THIS
PERIOD...AND IS EXPECTED TO LAST.  HOWEVER...WEAK DISTURBANCES
INTERMINGLED WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MEAN RATHER SMALL CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS ON SOME DAYS...PARTICULARLY THE MORE SOUTHERN ZONES...
WHICH WILL BE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO A QUASI-STATIONARY MID-ATLANTIC
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  IF ANYTHING...THE LATTER PORTION OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO HAVE THE DRIEST CONDITIONS...GOOD NEWS FOR
WEEKENDERS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S...AND LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE 50S WILL BE EXTREMELY COMMON...WITH LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY VARIATION.
THE NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS AT ALBANY...RESPECTIVELY...ARE IN THE
LOWER 80S AND LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE
TAF SITES AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH
CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR WITH THE CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT HAVE NOT BEEN INCLUDE
IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. OVERNIGHT GENERALLY MVFR CONDS W/AREAS
2SM IN BR. PATCHES OF IFR IN FOG ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT AS THE CLOUD COVER DECREASES AND WINDS LIGHTEN UP.

AT THE TAF SITES SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE 10 TO 20 KNOTS AND
GUSTY INTO THE EVENING. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT SOUTHERLY LATER
THIS EVENING...AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU NIGHT-FRI: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TODAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE COLD
FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING...BUT AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
ARRIVE FOR WEDNESDAY.

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 40 TO 60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...AND
INCREASE TO 75 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO
35 TO 55 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH
TODAY...AND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH TONIGHT. THE WINDS
WILL BE FORM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH ON TUESDAY WITH
THE FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS RISE UP TO AROUND 1.5
INCHES AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO
SOME MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS. ALSO
SOME SHARP WITHIN BANK RISES WOULD BE EXPECTED ON STREAMS...CREEKS
AND SOME SMALL RIVERS.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES AND PASSES OVER THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY
RANGE FROM A TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS.

A TREND TOWARDS DRIER WEATHER WILL OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...AND
CONTINUE UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...SNYDER
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...SNYDER
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA



000
FXUS61 KALY 032024
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
424 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING AND MOVE TO
THE COAST BY MORNING. IT MAY TRIGGER STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
LINGER OVER QUEBEC THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...BRINGING COOLER AIR
INTO OUR REGION...AND TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY NORTH OF I90
AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...

AS OF 930 AM EDT...MOST OF THE CIN IS MIXED OUT...A FINE LINE/PRE
FRONTAL TROF IS FM SLK-BGM AND APPEARS IT WILL BE THE FOCUS OF
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTN. AHEAD OF IT SKIES HAVE BEEN
SUNNY...TD ARE IN THE LOWER 60S AND TEMPS ARE IN THE 80S WITH A
FEW MORE HOURS OF DIURNAL HEATING TO GO. AT 500HPA THE FIRST
SHORT WV ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE LARGE QB/ONT CUT OFF IS
IN THE E GRTLKS AND MVNG SLOWLY E WITH THE BEST DYNAMICS N OR N OF
FCA.

MU CAPE VALUES ARE NOW IN THE VCNTY OF 1000-1500 J/KG...MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE ARND 6.5C. SCT TSTMS WILL FORM ALONG THIS LINE
DURING THE AFTN HRS...WHICH WILL BE COME STRONG AND SOME MAY BE
SEVERE.

THIS SCT-BKN LINE OF STORMS WILL PROGRESS IN BOWING SEGMENTS
ACROSS THE RGN DURING THE AFTN AND EVNG. SEE LATEST SPC DISC. PRE-
FRONTAL TROF WILL REACH SVT-RDG BY EVNG...AND DRIFT EAST AS
ACTIVITY DIM AND ATMOS STABILIZES. OVERNIGHT THIS BOUNDARY WILL
SHIFT EAST AS THE MAIN CDFNT MOVES INTO THE E GRTLKS...AND THEN
TO COAST BY DAYBREAK.

WITH CYCLONIC 500HPA FLOW ACROSS THE RGN AND COOLING AT 500HPACLOUDS
WILL INCR N TWRD DAYBREAK. MINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR WRN NEW ENGLAND BY
DAYBREAK. THE SFC DEWPT BOUNDARY WILL STILL BE PROGRESSING EAST
ACROSS ERN NY. THE NAM IS ADVERTISING ALOT OF INSTABILITY FOR TUE
WITH A DEEPLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THE GFS HAS LESS AGAIN...BUT
THERE IS A SMALL AREA OF HIGH INSTABILITY FROM THE THE MASS PIKE
SOUTH AND EAST INTO NW CT. SPC DOES HAVE LITCHFIELD CTY CLIPPED BY
THE MARGINAL RISK. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE AROUND 6.5C/KM
WITH ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR SOME STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL /NO ENHANCED WORDING YET/...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST. LOW- LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING
DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE PM. DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS OFF THE
ERN CATSKILLS/ERN DACKS MAY ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO GET INTO THE MID
AND U80S IN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION. EXPECT M70S TO
L80S IN MOST OTHER LOCATIONS...EXCEPT OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN
GREENS WHERE SOME U60S TO L70S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE COLD ADVECTION
REGIME...AS H850 TEMPS LOWER TO +10C TO +16C FROM NW TO SE OVER
THE FCST AREA BY THE LATE PM. A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SUNSET.

TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL HEATING THE SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY. THE ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS MAY LINGER THE LONGEST OVER THE SRN DACKS. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60F WITH SOME U40S TO L50S
OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN GREENS. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE QUITE
COMFORTABLE.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE FCST AREA WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER S-CNTRL QUEBEC. IN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW ANOTHER PIECE OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY WILL SWING ACROSS UPSTATE
NY AND NEW ENGLAND. THE BEST CHC OF ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS DUE TO THE
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. H500 TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -15C TO -18C FROM ALY
NORTH AND WEST. THE H500 HEIGHTS ARE ABOUT 2-3 STD DEVS BELOW
NORMAL BASED ON THE LATEST GEFS FOR WED. H850 TEMPS WILL BE 1-2
STD DEVS BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS ON WED WILL BE IN THE M60S TO L70S
OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS...WITH A FEW 80F
READINGS NEAR KPOU. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR COOL NIGHT FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF AUG...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE U40S TO M50S OVER
THE FCST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

A RETURN TO MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THIS
PERIOD...AND IS EXPECTED TO LAST.  HOWEVER...WEAK DISTURBANCES
INTERMINGLED WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MEAN RATHER SMALL CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS ON SOME DAYS...PARTICULARLY THE MORE SOUTHERN ZONES...
WHICH WILL BE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO A QUASI-STATIONARY MID-ATLANTIC
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  IF ANYTHING...THE LATTER PORTION OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO HAVE THE DRIEST CONDITIONS...GOOD NEWS FOR
WEEKENDERS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S...AND LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE 50S WILL BE EXTREMELY COMMON...WITH LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY VARIATION.
THE NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS AT ALBANY...RESPECTIVELY...ARE IN THE
LOWER 80S AND LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE
TAF SITES AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH
CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR WITH THE CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT HAVE NOT BEEN INCLUDE
IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. OVERNIGHT GENERALLY MVFR CONDS W/AREAS
2SM IN BR. PATCHES OF IFR IN FOG ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT AS THE CLOUD COVER DECREASES AND WINDS LIGHTEN UP.

AT THE TAF SITES SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE 10 TO 20 KNOTS AND
GUSTY INTO THE EVENING. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT SOUTHERLY LATER
THIS EVENING...AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU NIGHT-FRI: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TODAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE COLD
FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING...BUT AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
ARRIVE FOR WEDNESDAY.

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 40 TO 60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...AND
INCREASE TO 75 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO
35 TO 55 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH
TODAY...AND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH TONIGHT. THE WINDS
WILL BE FORM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH ON TUESDAY WITH
THE FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS RISE UP TO AROUND 1.5
INCHES AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO
SOME MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS. ALSO
SOME SHARP WITHIN BANK RISES WOULD BE EXPECTED ON STREAMS...CREEKS
AND SOME SMALL RIVERS.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES AND PASSES OVER THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY
RANGE FROM A TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS.

A TREND TOWARDS DRIER WEATHER WILL OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...AND
CONTINUE UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...SNYDER
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...SNYDER
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KOKX 031954
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
354 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH TONIGHT THEN STALL ACROSS
THE AREA TUESDAY. THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
MAY IMPACT THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BACK IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST GENERALLY ON TRACK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS NEW
JERSEY TRENDING A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN GUIDANCE OWING TO
STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED WELL AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN NY AND PA...SO HAVE INCREASED POPS
SLIGHTLY FOR SOUTHEAST NY AND NORTHWEST NJ. ALTHOUGH THERE IS
INSTABILITY...WARMER AIR ALOFT IS HINDERING MORE VIGOROUS
DEVELOPMENT WITH LIMITED LIGHTNING ONLY NOTED IN STORMS WITH
STRONGER UPDRAFTS. AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY
WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING BEFORE THE FRONT APPROACHES.

STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EVENING...WITH A HIGH RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS
AT THE OCEAN BEACHES.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT...THOUGH SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
PRECIPITATION SPLITS AROUND NYC AND LONG ISLAND WITH GREATER
CHANCES TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY WITH A
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. VERY LITTLE
APPRECIABLE DIFFERENCE WILL BE FELT WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING
ABOVE NORMAL AND SIMILAR HUMIDITY AS MONDAY. LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
THE UPPER TROUGH BUILDS FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST...FORCING THE
ATTENDANT SURFACE FRONT FARTHER OFFSHORE WITH LOWER DEW POINTS
ADVECTING INTO THE REGION. A SUBSEQUENT DECREASE IN HUMIDITY WILL
BE FELT AS THIS OCCURS. BY MORNING...THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAINLY BE
CONFINED TO THE OFFSHORE WATERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE OFFSHORE WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER
THE AREA INTO THURSDAY.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEPARTS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH SURFACE LOW OVER THE MID-
WEST TREKKING EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AFFECTING THE AREA MAINLY
FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THERE
IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE IT TRACKS AND THEREFORE HOW MUCH RAIN
WE DO RECEIVE. HOWEVER...IT DOES APPEAR MORE CERTAIN THAT A
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN EVENT IS IN STORE FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.

ISENTROPIC LIFT OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW NOTED IN BOTH THE
12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF...MAINLY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...SO THINKING
THIS WILL BE MORE STRATIFORM RAIN. SURFACE LOW CONTINUES ITS
APPROACH FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS DIFFER IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW.
THE 12Z ECMWF AND 12Z GFS AGREE WITH THE LOW BEING OVER THE NORTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC STATES BY 06Z SATURDAY. THEREAFTER...MODELS DIFFER
QUITE A BIT IN THEIR SOLUTIONS. 12Z ECMWF TREKS THE LOW NORTHEAST IN
SIDE THE 40/70 BENCHMARK THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY WHILE IT SLOWLY
STRENGTHENS WHILE THE GFS WEAKENS THE LOW OVER THE OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OFFSHORE AND WEAKER WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG
IT...WHILE THE 12Z CANADIAN IS AN OUTLIER BEING MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN
THE OTHER MODELS. THEREFORE...SIDED MORE ALONG THE LINES OF THE GFS
AND ECMWF AND KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY

LOW PRESSURE PUSHES AWAY FROM THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS.

OUTSIDE OF FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SEASONABLE FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. RAIN AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN ON FRIDAY...NOT
MAKING IT OUT OF THE 70S REGION-WIDE. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES MAY
PROVE TO BE A BIT LOWER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST.&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH THIS EVE AND DRIFT OUT TO SEA ON TUE.

MAINLY VFR OUTSIDE OF TSTMS THRU THE TAF PERIOD.

SOME TSTM DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE MAINLY THIS EVE WITH A FRONTAL SYS.
COVERAGE AND EXACT TIMING UNCERTAIN TNGT SO VCTS USED IN THE
TAFS. AT KSWF...BETTER CHC FOR DEVELOPMENT AFT 22Z SO MAINTAINED A
TEMPO.

THERE COULD BE SOME MVFR VIS AT TIMES IN BR MAINLY KGON/KHPN/KSWF
AFT 4-6Z.

A GENERAL SW FLOW THRU THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE BACKED
CLOSER TO THE S THIS AFTN AND EVE ALONG THE COASTS DUE TO THE SEA
BREEZE ENHANCED FLOW.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: THERE IS A LOW CHC FOR TSTMS BEFORE 00Z.
STRONGER WINDS MAY LINGER TIL AROUND 2Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: THERE IS A LOW CHC FOR TSTMS BEFORE
00Z. STRONGER WINDS MAY LINGER TIL AROUND 2Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: THERE IS A LOW CHC FOR TSTMS BEFORE 00Z.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: THERE IS A LOW CHC FOR TSTMS BEFORE 00Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: THERE IS A LOW CHC FOR TSTMS BEFORE 00Z. CHC
FOR MVFR VIS AFT 4-6Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED THRU 21Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUE THROUGH SAT...
.REST OF TUE...SLGT CHC FOR TSTMS MAINLY CSTL TERMINALS. BECOMING
VFR OVERNIGHT.SW FLOW BECOMING NW OVERNIGHT.
.WED-THU...VFR. GENERALLY W FLOW.
.FRI...MVFR OR LOWER IN RAIN. WINDS BECOMING NE.
.SAT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN RAIN. NE WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS LATE TODAY...MOVING CLOSE TO
THE WATERS TONIGHT. WINDS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL REMAIN
STRONG THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE LIGHTENING
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT.

OCEAN SEAS BUILD DUE TO THE INCREASE IN THESE WINDS. SCA
STARTING AT 4 PM LOCAL AND THROUGH TONIGHT. OCCASIONAL 25 KT
GUSTS POSSIBLE FOR NY HARBOR...WESTERN SOUTH SHORE BAYS AND
WESTERN LI SOUND LATE MONDAY AFT INTO MONDAY EVENING.

OCEAN SEAS WILL BE SUBSIDING TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT 5 FT SEAS MAY
LINGER ON THE EASTERN OCEAN UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY WITH SUB SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MAY PASS OVER THE WATERS FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK. OCCASIONAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY WITH SUB SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LOW PRESSURE MAY PASS OVER OR NEAR THE WATERS
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
OCCASIONAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY ON
THE OCEAN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL PRODUCT LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL...WHICH COULD LEAD TO MINOR POOR DRAINAGE NUISANCE FLOODING.

A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN WHERE AND WHEN THE HEAVIEST
OF THE RAIN WILL FALL. ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD LIMIT
FLOODING POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP
WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ075-
     080-081-178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MD/DS
NEAR TERM...MD
SHORT TERM...MD
LONG TERM...JP/DS
AVIATION...JMC/JC
MARINE...JP/DS/TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...JP/DS/TONGUE




000
FXUS61 KOKX 031954
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
354 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH TONIGHT THEN STALL ACROSS
THE AREA TUESDAY. THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
MAY IMPACT THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BACK IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST GENERALLY ON TRACK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS NEW
JERSEY TRENDING A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN GUIDANCE OWING TO
STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED WELL AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN NY AND PA...SO HAVE INCREASED POPS
SLIGHTLY FOR SOUTHEAST NY AND NORTHWEST NJ. ALTHOUGH THERE IS
INSTABILITY...WARMER AIR ALOFT IS HINDERING MORE VIGOROUS
DEVELOPMENT WITH LIMITED LIGHTNING ONLY NOTED IN STORMS WITH
STRONGER UPDRAFTS. AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY
WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING BEFORE THE FRONT APPROACHES.

STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EVENING...WITH A HIGH RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS
AT THE OCEAN BEACHES.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT...THOUGH SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
PRECIPITATION SPLITS AROUND NYC AND LONG ISLAND WITH GREATER
CHANCES TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY WITH A
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. VERY LITTLE
APPRECIABLE DIFFERENCE WILL BE FELT WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING
ABOVE NORMAL AND SIMILAR HUMIDITY AS MONDAY. LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
THE UPPER TROUGH BUILDS FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST...FORCING THE
ATTENDANT SURFACE FRONT FARTHER OFFSHORE WITH LOWER DEW POINTS
ADVECTING INTO THE REGION. A SUBSEQUENT DECREASE IN HUMIDITY WILL
BE FELT AS THIS OCCURS. BY MORNING...THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAINLY BE
CONFINED TO THE OFFSHORE WATERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE OFFSHORE WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER
THE AREA INTO THURSDAY.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEPARTS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH SURFACE LOW OVER THE MID-
WEST TREKKING EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AFFECTING THE AREA MAINLY
FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THERE
IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE IT TRACKS AND THEREFORE HOW MUCH RAIN
WE DO RECEIVE. HOWEVER...IT DOES APPEAR MORE CERTAIN THAT A
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN EVENT IS IN STORE FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.

ISENTROPIC LIFT OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW NOTED IN BOTH THE
12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF...MAINLY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...SO THINKING
THIS WILL BE MORE STRATIFORM RAIN. SURFACE LOW CONTINUES ITS
APPROACH FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS DIFFER IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW.
THE 12Z ECMWF AND 12Z GFS AGREE WITH THE LOW BEING OVER THE NORTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC STATES BY 06Z SATURDAY. THEREAFTER...MODELS DIFFER
QUITE A BIT IN THEIR SOLUTIONS. 12Z ECMWF TREKS THE LOW NORTHEAST IN
SIDE THE 40/70 BENCHMARK THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY WHILE IT SLOWLY
STRENGTHENS WHILE THE GFS WEAKENS THE LOW OVER THE OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OFFSHORE AND WEAKER WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG
IT...WHILE THE 12Z CANADIAN IS AN OUTLIER BEING MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN
THE OTHER MODELS. THEREFORE...SIDED MORE ALONG THE LINES OF THE GFS
AND ECMWF AND KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY

LOW PRESSURE PUSHES AWAY FROM THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS.

OUTSIDE OF FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SEASONABLE FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. RAIN AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN ON FRIDAY...NOT
MAKING IT OUT OF THE 70S REGION-WIDE. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES MAY
PROVE TO BE A BIT LOWER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST.&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH THIS EVE AND DRIFT OUT TO SEA ON TUE.

MAINLY VFR OUTSIDE OF TSTMS THRU THE TAF PERIOD.

SOME TSTM DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE MAINLY THIS EVE WITH A FRONTAL SYS.
COVERAGE AND EXACT TIMING UNCERTAIN TNGT SO VCTS USED IN THE
TAFS. AT KSWF...BETTER CHC FOR DEVELOPMENT AFT 22Z SO MAINTAINED A
TEMPO.

THERE COULD BE SOME MVFR VIS AT TIMES IN BR MAINLY KGON/KHPN/KSWF
AFT 4-6Z.

A GENERAL SW FLOW THRU THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE BACKED
CLOSER TO THE S THIS AFTN AND EVE ALONG THE COASTS DUE TO THE SEA
BREEZE ENHANCED FLOW.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: THERE IS A LOW CHC FOR TSTMS BEFORE 00Z.
STRONGER WINDS MAY LINGER TIL AROUND 2Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: THERE IS A LOW CHC FOR TSTMS BEFORE
00Z. STRONGER WINDS MAY LINGER TIL AROUND 2Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: THERE IS A LOW CHC FOR TSTMS BEFORE 00Z.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: THERE IS A LOW CHC FOR TSTMS BEFORE 00Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: THERE IS A LOW CHC FOR TSTMS BEFORE 00Z. CHC
FOR MVFR VIS AFT 4-6Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED THRU 21Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUE THROUGH SAT...
.REST OF TUE...SLGT CHC FOR TSTMS MAINLY CSTL TERMINALS. BECOMING
VFR OVERNIGHT.SW FLOW BECOMING NW OVERNIGHT.
.WED-THU...VFR. GENERALLY W FLOW.
.FRI...MVFR OR LOWER IN RAIN. WINDS BECOMING NE.
.SAT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN RAIN. NE WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS LATE TODAY...MOVING CLOSE TO
THE WATERS TONIGHT. WINDS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL REMAIN
STRONG THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE LIGHTENING
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT.

OCEAN SEAS BUILD DUE TO THE INCREASE IN THESE WINDS. SCA
STARTING AT 4 PM LOCAL AND THROUGH TONIGHT. OCCASIONAL 25 KT
GUSTS POSSIBLE FOR NY HARBOR...WESTERN SOUTH SHORE BAYS AND
WESTERN LI SOUND LATE MONDAY AFT INTO MONDAY EVENING.

OCEAN SEAS WILL BE SUBSIDING TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT 5 FT SEAS MAY
LINGER ON THE EASTERN OCEAN UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY WITH SUB SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MAY PASS OVER THE WATERS FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK. OCCASIONAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY WITH SUB SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LOW PRESSURE MAY PASS OVER OR NEAR THE WATERS
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
OCCASIONAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY ON
THE OCEAN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL PRODUCT LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL...WHICH COULD LEAD TO MINOR POOR DRAINAGE NUISANCE FLOODING.

A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN WHERE AND WHEN THE HEAVIEST
OF THE RAIN WILL FALL. ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD LIMIT
FLOODING POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP
WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ075-
     080-081-178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MD/DS
NEAR TERM...MD
SHORT TERM...MD
LONG TERM...JP/DS
AVIATION...JMC/JC
MARINE...JP/DS/TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...JP/DS/TONGUE



000
FXUS61 KBOX 031927
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
327 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOWARDS TUESDAY
MORNING...CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SOME
OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. DRY...WARM AND LESS
HUMID WEATHER ARRIVES WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY. A
PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE TIMING OF POTENTIAL WET WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

THIS EVENING...

WHAT APPEARS TO BE A CONVERGENT PLUME OF LOW- TO MID-LEVEL HIGHER
THETA-E AIR CONTINUES TO SWEEP NE OVER THE WATERS ADJACENT TO SE NEW
ENGLAND. WILL SEE SCATTERED SHOWER / THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP AND ADVECT OFF TO THE NE. A DRY WEDGE IS EXPECTED TO
MAINTAIN ACROSS THE REGION OUT AHEAD OF THE CONVECTIVE WEATHER
ONGOING OVER UPSTATE NY INTO N NEW ENGLAND. WHILE SOME OF THE
W-ACTIVITY MAY IMPACT N/W-PORTIONS OF S NEW ENGLAND IT IS EXPECTED
TO BE WEAKENED BY THE DRIER SUBSIDING AIR IN PLACE. NOTING ON THE
VISIBLE THE LACK OF CUMULUS ACROSS THE REGION WHILE IN THE WATER
VAPOR THE DRY WEDGE IS CLEARLY EVIDENT.

TONIGHT...

POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE WEATHER OUTCOMES INTO SE NEW ENGLAND TOWARDS
TUESDAY MORNING. FORECAST GUIDANCE CONSENSUS NOTES AN INSTABILITY
BURST ELEVATED AND MAINTAINED BY A S/SW WARM-MOIST PLUME OF HIGHER
THETA-E AIR ABOVE A SUBSEQUENT INVERSION. PWATS OF 1.50-1.75 INCHES.
ACTIVITY LOOKS TO ORIGINATE ALONG THE NOSE OF A H925-85 JET WITHIN A
H85-7 ENVIRONMENT OF 6-7C/KM LAPSE RATES. YET THERE IS A LACK OF
DEEP-LAYER FORCING AS THE BETTER AREA OF PVA / MID-LEVEL TROUGH /
SURFACE COLD FRONT REMAIN TO THE W.

THINKING IS THAT WE MAY SEE A WIDESPREAD AREA OF ACTIVITY OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS COLLOCATED WITH THE CONVERGENT LOW-LEVEL PLUME.
UNCERTAINTY IF ANY THUNDERSTORMS BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. HEAVY RAIN
LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT ALONG WITH LIGHTNING. THINKING LOW RISK
SEVERE AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE STORMS TO BECOME STRONG. WILL
SEE COLLOCATED UNI-DIRECTIONAL SW-NE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR EXCEEDING 40
KTS AND FREEZING LEVELS OF AROUND 11 KFT. SOME EVIDENCE OF TURNING
WITHIN THE 0-1/0-3 KM LAYER. SREF DOES DENOTE DECENT PROBABILITIES
OF INSTABILITY EXCEEDING 2K J/KG IN ADDITION TO THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHEAR AND TURNING ENVIRONMENT. THOUGH SREF PROBS NOT SO MUCH HELPFUL
WITH RESPECT TO PRECIP ACCUMULATIONS...THUS CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT
TO POSSIBLE FLOODING IS LOW DESPITE THE ANTICIPATED OUTCOMES THAT
WERE DISCUSSED ABOVE. WILL AVOID ENHANCED WORDING WITH THE FORECAST
FOR THE TIME BEING.

SHOULD BETTER FORCING AND VENTING ALOFT WITH THE H3 JET SHIFT E...
THERE WOULD BE GREATER IMPETUS UPON THE ENVIRONMENT TO GENERATE
GREATER AND LIKELY STRONGER CONVECTIVE WEATHER. INTERESTING AS TO
WHETHER CONVECTIVE REMNANTS W FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY SHIFT E AND
ACT AS A CRUX OF FORCING VIA LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. OVERALL
INDIVIDUAL MODELS CONTINUE TO WOBBLE AND THERE IS JUST AN UNDERLYING
LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY OTHER THAN THE FOCUS BEING ON SE NEW ENGLAND.
IT MAY BE QUIET THROUGHOUT AS THE PRESENT DRY SUBSIDING WEDGE OF
AIR ACROSS THE REGION MAINTAINS.

OTHERWISE SW-FLOW CONTINUES OVERNIGHT USHERING HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR
ACROSS INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND. SHOULD REMAIN BREEZY ALONG THE S/SE-
COAST. INCREASING CLOUD COVER SHOULD YIELD MILD LOW TEMPERATURES
AROUND THE MID- TO UPPER-60S AND MAY SUBSEQUENTLY LIMIT PATCHY DENSE
FOG TO JUST ACROSS S/SE NEW ENGLAND IN HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

TUESDAY...

A COMBINATION OF RISING HEIGHTS WITHIN THE MID-LEVELS COMBINED WITH
DRIER AIR ALOFT COULD SUBDUE THE POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT.
BENEATH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT THRU WHICH ADDITIONAL MID-LEVEL IMPULSES
AND ACCOMPANYING JET-STREAKS RESIDE...THE OVERALL QUESTION IS AS TO
WHETHER A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CAN BECOME THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. SWEEPING THROUGH AN ENVIRONMENT OF ROBUST THETA-E
AIR AND INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF 2K J/KG IN WHICH LAPSE RATES ARE
STEEP ESPECIALLY H85-7 AND SHEAR PROFILES ARE MODERATE TO STRONG TO
50 KTS WITH SLIGHT TURNING WITHIN THE 0-1/0-3 KM PROFILE...THERE
APPEARS TO BE MECHANISMS FOR FORCING...BUT SHOULD MID-LEVEL RIDGING
PROCEED...THIS SEEMS TO SQUASH THE POSSIBILITY FOR CONVECTION. THERE
IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY THAT SHOULD ACTIVITY DEVELOP TOWARDS MORNING
OVER SE NEW ENGLAND AS NOTED EARLIER IT COULD SUBDUE THE ENVIRONMENT
FROM BECOMING CONVECTIVE /I.E. CLOUD COVER/. A VERY COMPLICATED
FORECAST.

BUT STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOMETHING POPPING
ACROSS THE INTERIOR. AM SOMEWHAT CONCERNED NOTING THE CIPS ANALOG
GUIDANCE IN WHERE SEVERAL OF THE ANALOGS WITNESSED SUBSTANTIAL WIND
AND HAIL IMPACTS OVER N- AND W-PORTIONS OF S NEW ENGLAND. THE STRONG
TO SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS SEEMINGLY THERE THOUGH THERE IS SOME
LEVEL OF DOUBT. EVEN SPC WILL WAIT ON HOW THE ENVIRONMENT DEVELOPS
WITH RESPECT TO THEIR CONVECTIVE WEATHER OUTLOOKS...WHETHER THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL DESTABILIZE. CAN NOT RULE IT OUT COMPLETELY AND
WILL PREPARE FOR THE POTENTIAL ACCORDINGLY. FOCUS OF A HEAVY RAIN
THREAT ALONG WITH POTENTIAL HAIL AND STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND
POSSIBILITIES. CAN NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A TORNADO. BUT
NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME TO GO WITH ENHANCED WORDING IN
THE FORECAST.

WHILE FORECAST GUIDANCE SEEMS MIXED WITH AN UNCERTAIN EVOLUTION OF
SYNOPTICS...THERE IS GREATER CONFIDENCE OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY AROUND THE VICINITY OF SE NEW ENGLAND AND ADJACENT WATERS
WHERE THE SW-NE PLUME OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR RESIDES AS WELL AS BOTH
A STRONGER AND CONVERGENT SW-NE H925-85 WIND PROFILE. WOULD EXPECT A
CONTINUATION BEGINNING IN THE MORNING AS OUTLINED IN THE EARLIER
DISCUSSION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH
ALSO COULD BE STRONG AND POSSIBLY SEVERE.

OVERALL...A MILD AND MUGGY DAY WITH HIGHS INTO THE MID- TO UPPER-80S
AS DEWPOINTS RANGE AROUND THE MID- TO UPPER-60S.

TUESDAY NIGHT...

FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THE HIGHER THETA-E / INSTABILITY OUT TO SEA
INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SO ANTICIPATING A DRYING TREND. W-FLOW
PROCEEDING USHERING LOWER DEWPOINT AIR ACROSS THE INTERIOR. AS
CONDITIONS GRADUALLY CLEAR...TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE LOW- TO MID-
60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE AROUND FRIDAY
* TEMPERATURES TRENDING BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD

OVERALL...THE MODELS HAVE RATHER POOR AGREEMENT ON THE GENERAL
PATTERN AND TIMING THROUGH THE LONG TERM. IN SOME TIME PERIODS IT
SEEMS THAT THE GFS MAY JUST BE SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF. IN OTHERS...
THEY ARE JUST COMPLETELY DIFFERENT. THE ENSEMBLES ARE NOT MUCH
HELP IN THAT THE ECMWF ENSEMBLES LOOK VERY SIMILAR TO THE OPERATIONAL
MODEL AND THE GEFS IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE GFS. BASICALLY HAVE TWO
FAIRLY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM. HOWEVER...
GENERAL TRENDS ARE SIMILAR. LOOKING AT A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK.

WEDNESDAY...LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL. DESPITE THE POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES AS A
SHORTWAVE PUSHES INTO THE REGION...EXPECT MUCH OF THE DAY AND MUCH
OF THE AREA TO REMAIN DRY.

THURSDAY...MUCH OF THE DAY LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE AREA. THIS IS ONE OF THOSE TIMES THE TIMING IS
OFF BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS. THE ECMWF IS QUICK TO MOVE THE
HIGH PRESSURE OUT OF THE REGION...PUSHED BY LOW PRESSURE MOVING
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE GFS KEEPS THAT
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE LOW PRESSURE IN
THE GREAT LAKES.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THIS LOOKS TO BE THE MOST
UNSETTLED TIME WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
THEN POSSIBLY UP THE EAST COAST OVER THE 40/70 BENCHMARK SOUTHEAST
OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE ECMWF IS THE MOST BULLISH WITH THIS...
TRACKING THE LOW DIRECTLY OVER THE BENCHMARK AND BRINGING AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN TO MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE GFS
DEVELOPS SOME SORT OF BOUNDARY ALONG WHICH SEVERAL AREAS OF LOW
PRESSURE TRAVEL...BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN TO THE REGION. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE A GIVEN WITH LOWERING HEIGHTS/TEMPS ALOFT
AND MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES FOR MUCH OF THIS TIME.
WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE TEMPS TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S ON FRIDAY.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MUCH OF THIS FORECAST WILL DEPEND ON HOW FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY SHAKE OUT...BUT IN GENERAL THE WEATHER LOOKS DRIER AND
QUIETER WITH REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SW-WINDS. SCT -SHRA SWEEP FROM THE W AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE
OVER SE TERMINALS TOWARDS MORNING WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF TSRA /
+RA AND LOWERING CIGS TO MVFR. PATCHY FOG. VFR ELSEWHERE.

TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
SW-WINDS GUSTY AT TIMES 20-25 KTS. SCT SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE OVER THE
INTERIOR THOUGH BETTER CHANCES OVER SE NEW ENGLAND INTO EVENING.
OTHER THAN MVFR LINGERING OVER SE TERMINALS DURING THE MORNING...
TEMPO MVFR-IFR POSSIBLE WITH ANY WEATHER.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS BACK W WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. TERMINALS CLEAR OUT W TO E.
PREVAILING VFR WITH MVFR CIGS LINGERING OVER SE TERMINALS TOWARDS
MORNING.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP
ACROSS THE TERMINAL TOWARDS TUESDAY MORNING.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. UNCERTAIN AS TO
WHETHER SHRA/TSRA WILL ADVECT W OUT OF NY. GREATER CONFIDENCE THAT
THEY WILL DISSIPATE PRIOR TO ANY ARRIVAL.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. LOW PROBABILITY
OF A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS NW MA WEDNESDAY. ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP MAY HAVE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING...HIGHER
CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS.  MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN WIDESPREAD RAIN LIKELY
SOMETIME DURING THIS PERIOD.  VFR BEFORE AND AFTER PERIOD OF RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SW-WINDS CONTINUE WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS...STRONGER OVER THE S-
WATERS AT 25 KTS. WAVES BUILDING TO 5 FEET. PERHAPS SOME PATCHY
FOG ISSUES. INCREASING AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDER- STORMS TOWARDS MORNING. STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SW-WINDS WITH GUSTS 20-25 KTS. WAVES AT 5-6 FEET. CONTINUED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH SOME OF THOSE STORMS BEING
STRONG TO SEVERE.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SW-WINDS BACKING W THROUGH THE NIGHT. GUSTS SUBSIDING. WAVES AT
5-6 FEET. SHOWER / THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONCLUDE W TO E TOWARDS
MORNING.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW 5 FEET EXPECTED. RAIN IS LIKELY
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...LIMITING VISIBILITIES AT TIMES.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EASTERLY WINDS
AND SEAS INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE OUTER WATERS.
RAIN IS LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...LIMITING VISIBILITIES
AT TIMES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ230>234-236-
     250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     254>256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RLG/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...RLG/SIPPRELL
MARINE...RLG/SIPPRELL




000
FXUS61 KBOX 031927
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
327 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOWARDS TUESDAY
MORNING...CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SOME
OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. DRY...WARM AND LESS
HUMID WEATHER ARRIVES WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY. A
PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE TIMING OF POTENTIAL WET WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

THIS EVENING...

WHAT APPEARS TO BE A CONVERGENT PLUME OF LOW- TO MID-LEVEL HIGHER
THETA-E AIR CONTINUES TO SWEEP NE OVER THE WATERS ADJACENT TO SE NEW
ENGLAND. WILL SEE SCATTERED SHOWER / THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP AND ADVECT OFF TO THE NE. A DRY WEDGE IS EXPECTED TO
MAINTAIN ACROSS THE REGION OUT AHEAD OF THE CONVECTIVE WEATHER
ONGOING OVER UPSTATE NY INTO N NEW ENGLAND. WHILE SOME OF THE
W-ACTIVITY MAY IMPACT N/W-PORTIONS OF S NEW ENGLAND IT IS EXPECTED
TO BE WEAKENED BY THE DRIER SUBSIDING AIR IN PLACE. NOTING ON THE
VISIBLE THE LACK OF CUMULUS ACROSS THE REGION WHILE IN THE WATER
VAPOR THE DRY WEDGE IS CLEARLY EVIDENT.

TONIGHT...

POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE WEATHER OUTCOMES INTO SE NEW ENGLAND TOWARDS
TUESDAY MORNING. FORECAST GUIDANCE CONSENSUS NOTES AN INSTABILITY
BURST ELEVATED AND MAINTAINED BY A S/SW WARM-MOIST PLUME OF HIGHER
THETA-E AIR ABOVE A SUBSEQUENT INVERSION. PWATS OF 1.50-1.75 INCHES.
ACTIVITY LOOKS TO ORIGINATE ALONG THE NOSE OF A H925-85 JET WITHIN A
H85-7 ENVIRONMENT OF 6-7C/KM LAPSE RATES. YET THERE IS A LACK OF
DEEP-LAYER FORCING AS THE BETTER AREA OF PVA / MID-LEVEL TROUGH /
SURFACE COLD FRONT REMAIN TO THE W.

THINKING IS THAT WE MAY SEE A WIDESPREAD AREA OF ACTIVITY OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS COLLOCATED WITH THE CONVERGENT LOW-LEVEL PLUME.
UNCERTAINTY IF ANY THUNDERSTORMS BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. HEAVY RAIN
LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT ALONG WITH LIGHTNING. THINKING LOW RISK
SEVERE AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE STORMS TO BECOME STRONG. WILL
SEE COLLOCATED UNI-DIRECTIONAL SW-NE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR EXCEEDING 40
KTS AND FREEZING LEVELS OF AROUND 11 KFT. SOME EVIDENCE OF TURNING
WITHIN THE 0-1/0-3 KM LAYER. SREF DOES DENOTE DECENT PROBABILITIES
OF INSTABILITY EXCEEDING 2K J/KG IN ADDITION TO THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHEAR AND TURNING ENVIRONMENT. THOUGH SREF PROBS NOT SO MUCH HELPFUL
WITH RESPECT TO PRECIP ACCUMULATIONS...THUS CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT
TO POSSIBLE FLOODING IS LOW DESPITE THE ANTICIPATED OUTCOMES THAT
WERE DISCUSSED ABOVE. WILL AVOID ENHANCED WORDING WITH THE FORECAST
FOR THE TIME BEING.

SHOULD BETTER FORCING AND VENTING ALOFT WITH THE H3 JET SHIFT E...
THERE WOULD BE GREATER IMPETUS UPON THE ENVIRONMENT TO GENERATE
GREATER AND LIKELY STRONGER CONVECTIVE WEATHER. INTERESTING AS TO
WHETHER CONVECTIVE REMNANTS W FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY SHIFT E AND
ACT AS A CRUX OF FORCING VIA LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. OVERALL
INDIVIDUAL MODELS CONTINUE TO WOBBLE AND THERE IS JUST AN UNDERLYING
LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY OTHER THAN THE FOCUS BEING ON SE NEW ENGLAND.
IT MAY BE QUIET THROUGHOUT AS THE PRESENT DRY SUBSIDING WEDGE OF
AIR ACROSS THE REGION MAINTAINS.

OTHERWISE SW-FLOW CONTINUES OVERNIGHT USHERING HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR
ACROSS INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND. SHOULD REMAIN BREEZY ALONG THE S/SE-
COAST. INCREASING CLOUD COVER SHOULD YIELD MILD LOW TEMPERATURES
AROUND THE MID- TO UPPER-60S AND MAY SUBSEQUENTLY LIMIT PATCHY DENSE
FOG TO JUST ACROSS S/SE NEW ENGLAND IN HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

TUESDAY...

A COMBINATION OF RISING HEIGHTS WITHIN THE MID-LEVELS COMBINED WITH
DRIER AIR ALOFT COULD SUBDUE THE POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT.
BENEATH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT THRU WHICH ADDITIONAL MID-LEVEL IMPULSES
AND ACCOMPANYING JET-STREAKS RESIDE...THE OVERALL QUESTION IS AS TO
WHETHER A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CAN BECOME THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. SWEEPING THROUGH AN ENVIRONMENT OF ROBUST THETA-E
AIR AND INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF 2K J/KG IN WHICH LAPSE RATES ARE
STEEP ESPECIALLY H85-7 AND SHEAR PROFILES ARE MODERATE TO STRONG TO
50 KTS WITH SLIGHT TURNING WITHIN THE 0-1/0-3 KM PROFILE...THERE
APPEARS TO BE MECHANISMS FOR FORCING...BUT SHOULD MID-LEVEL RIDGING
PROCEED...THIS SEEMS TO SQUASH THE POSSIBILITY FOR CONVECTION. THERE
IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY THAT SHOULD ACTIVITY DEVELOP TOWARDS MORNING
OVER SE NEW ENGLAND AS NOTED EARLIER IT COULD SUBDUE THE ENVIRONMENT
FROM BECOMING CONVECTIVE /I.E. CLOUD COVER/. A VERY COMPLICATED
FORECAST.

BUT STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOMETHING POPPING
ACROSS THE INTERIOR. AM SOMEWHAT CONCERNED NOTING THE CIPS ANALOG
GUIDANCE IN WHERE SEVERAL OF THE ANALOGS WITNESSED SUBSTANTIAL WIND
AND HAIL IMPACTS OVER N- AND W-PORTIONS OF S NEW ENGLAND. THE STRONG
TO SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS SEEMINGLY THERE THOUGH THERE IS SOME
LEVEL OF DOUBT. EVEN SPC WILL WAIT ON HOW THE ENVIRONMENT DEVELOPS
WITH RESPECT TO THEIR CONVECTIVE WEATHER OUTLOOKS...WHETHER THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL DESTABILIZE. CAN NOT RULE IT OUT COMPLETELY AND
WILL PREPARE FOR THE POTENTIAL ACCORDINGLY. FOCUS OF A HEAVY RAIN
THREAT ALONG WITH POTENTIAL HAIL AND STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND
POSSIBILITIES. CAN NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A TORNADO. BUT
NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME TO GO WITH ENHANCED WORDING IN
THE FORECAST.

WHILE FORECAST GUIDANCE SEEMS MIXED WITH AN UNCERTAIN EVOLUTION OF
SYNOPTICS...THERE IS GREATER CONFIDENCE OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY AROUND THE VICINITY OF SE NEW ENGLAND AND ADJACENT WATERS
WHERE THE SW-NE PLUME OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR RESIDES AS WELL AS BOTH
A STRONGER AND CONVERGENT SW-NE H925-85 WIND PROFILE. WOULD EXPECT A
CONTINUATION BEGINNING IN THE MORNING AS OUTLINED IN THE EARLIER
DISCUSSION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH
ALSO COULD BE STRONG AND POSSIBLY SEVERE.

OVERALL...A MILD AND MUGGY DAY WITH HIGHS INTO THE MID- TO UPPER-80S
AS DEWPOINTS RANGE AROUND THE MID- TO UPPER-60S.

TUESDAY NIGHT...

FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THE HIGHER THETA-E / INSTABILITY OUT TO SEA
INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SO ANTICIPATING A DRYING TREND. W-FLOW
PROCEEDING USHERING LOWER DEWPOINT AIR ACROSS THE INTERIOR. AS
CONDITIONS GRADUALLY CLEAR...TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE LOW- TO MID-
60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE AROUND FRIDAY
* TEMPERATURES TRENDING BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD

OVERALL...THE MODELS HAVE RATHER POOR AGREEMENT ON THE GENERAL
PATTERN AND TIMING THROUGH THE LONG TERM. IN SOME TIME PERIODS IT
SEEMS THAT THE GFS MAY JUST BE SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF. IN OTHERS...
THEY ARE JUST COMPLETELY DIFFERENT. THE ENSEMBLES ARE NOT MUCH
HELP IN THAT THE ECMWF ENSEMBLES LOOK VERY SIMILAR TO THE OPERATIONAL
MODEL AND THE GEFS IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE GFS. BASICALLY HAVE TWO
FAIRLY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM. HOWEVER...
GENERAL TRENDS ARE SIMILAR. LOOKING AT A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK.

WEDNESDAY...LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL. DESPITE THE POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES AS A
SHORTWAVE PUSHES INTO THE REGION...EXPECT MUCH OF THE DAY AND MUCH
OF THE AREA TO REMAIN DRY.

THURSDAY...MUCH OF THE DAY LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE AREA. THIS IS ONE OF THOSE TIMES THE TIMING IS
OFF BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS. THE ECMWF IS QUICK TO MOVE THE
HIGH PRESSURE OUT OF THE REGION...PUSHED BY LOW PRESSURE MOVING
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE GFS KEEPS THAT
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE LOW PRESSURE IN
THE GREAT LAKES.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THIS LOOKS TO BE THE MOST
UNSETTLED TIME WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
THEN POSSIBLY UP THE EAST COAST OVER THE 40/70 BENCHMARK SOUTHEAST
OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE ECMWF IS THE MOST BULLISH WITH THIS...
TRACKING THE LOW DIRECTLY OVER THE BENCHMARK AND BRINGING AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN TO MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE GFS
DEVELOPS SOME SORT OF BOUNDARY ALONG WHICH SEVERAL AREAS OF LOW
PRESSURE TRAVEL...BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN TO THE REGION. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE A GIVEN WITH LOWERING HEIGHTS/TEMPS ALOFT
AND MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES FOR MUCH OF THIS TIME.
WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE TEMPS TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S ON FRIDAY.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MUCH OF THIS FORECAST WILL DEPEND ON HOW FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY SHAKE OUT...BUT IN GENERAL THE WEATHER LOOKS DRIER AND
QUIETER WITH REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SW-WINDS. SCT -SHRA SWEEP FROM THE W AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE
OVER SE TERMINALS TOWARDS MORNING WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF TSRA /
+RA AND LOWERING CIGS TO MVFR. PATCHY FOG. VFR ELSEWHERE.

TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
SW-WINDS GUSTY AT TIMES 20-25 KTS. SCT SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE OVER THE
INTERIOR THOUGH BETTER CHANCES OVER SE NEW ENGLAND INTO EVENING.
OTHER THAN MVFR LINGERING OVER SE TERMINALS DURING THE MORNING...
TEMPO MVFR-IFR POSSIBLE WITH ANY WEATHER.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS BACK W WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. TERMINALS CLEAR OUT W TO E.
PREVAILING VFR WITH MVFR CIGS LINGERING OVER SE TERMINALS TOWARDS
MORNING.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP
ACROSS THE TERMINAL TOWARDS TUESDAY MORNING.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. UNCERTAIN AS TO
WHETHER SHRA/TSRA WILL ADVECT W OUT OF NY. GREATER CONFIDENCE THAT
THEY WILL DISSIPATE PRIOR TO ANY ARRIVAL.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. LOW PROBABILITY
OF A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS NW MA WEDNESDAY. ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP MAY HAVE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING...HIGHER
CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS.  MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN WIDESPREAD RAIN LIKELY
SOMETIME DURING THIS PERIOD.  VFR BEFORE AND AFTER PERIOD OF RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SW-WINDS CONTINUE WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS...STRONGER OVER THE S-
WATERS AT 25 KTS. WAVES BUILDING TO 5 FEET. PERHAPS SOME PATCHY
FOG ISSUES. INCREASING AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDER- STORMS TOWARDS MORNING. STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SW-WINDS WITH GUSTS 20-25 KTS. WAVES AT 5-6 FEET. CONTINUED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH SOME OF THOSE STORMS BEING
STRONG TO SEVERE.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SW-WINDS BACKING W THROUGH THE NIGHT. GUSTS SUBSIDING. WAVES AT
5-6 FEET. SHOWER / THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONCLUDE W TO E TOWARDS
MORNING.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW 5 FEET EXPECTED. RAIN IS LIKELY
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...LIMITING VISIBILITIES AT TIMES.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EASTERLY WINDS
AND SEAS INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE OUTER WATERS.
RAIN IS LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...LIMITING VISIBILITIES
AT TIMES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ230>234-236-
     250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     254>256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RLG/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...RLG/SIPPRELL
MARINE...RLG/SIPPRELL



000
FXUS61 KOKX 031757
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
157 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA LATE TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST ON TRACK THIS AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE NOW EAST OF THE
HUDSON BAY IN QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD...WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT MOVING TOWARDS THE
AREA THROUGH THE DAY. A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY IS EXPECTED
OVERALL...WITH SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATE IN THE DAY.

A FEW HI-RESOLUTION MODELS SHOWING AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS IN
NORTHERN NJ. SIDED WITH A GENERALLY DRIER AFTERNOON FORECAST OWING
TO SEASONABLY DRY AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND WARMING ALOFT
INDICATED ON RAP SOUNDINGS...ALSO EVIDENCED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
AS OF 17Z.

TEMPS ARE TOWARDS THE WARMER GFS MOS NUMBERS.

SEA BREEZE ENHANCED WITH THE AMBROSE JET EFFECT AND GUSTS TO NEAR
30 MPH LATE THIS AFTN OVER WESTERN LONG ISLAND. AS SUCH...THERE IS
A HIGH RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE OCEAN
BEACHES TODAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES. A RIP CURRENT STATEMENT
IS IN EFFECT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT SAGS INTO THE REGION BY TUESDAY MORNING AND THEN
BECOMES DIFFUSE. RATHER UNCERTAIN ON DETAILS FOR PCPN IN THIS
PERIOD. HAVE CONTINUED THE IDEA OF SCT CONVECTION INTO TUESDAY
MORNING.

TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER
90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
DEEP CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
INTO EASTERN CANADA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY. MUCH
DRIER AIR MOVES IN ON WEDNESDAY WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 50S. SOME
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES IN
THE AFTERNOON...BUT FEEL AT THIS TIME THE AIR MASS WILL BE TOO DRY
FOR ANY SHOWERS. HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST DRY FOR WEDNESDAY.

BY THURSDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON A PIECE OF ENERGY
INTERACTING WITH THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THIS SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MAY THEN MOVE ALONG THE BASE OF THE TROUGH THROUGH THE AREA
LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE AREA AND
MAY IMPACT THE REGION. THE 18Z SUN AND 00Z MONDAY GFS ARE FLATTER
WITH THE WAVE AND THUS KEEP LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE AREA COMPARED
TO ITS PREVIOUS 12Z SUNDAY RUN...WHILE THE 00Z MONDAY ECMWF IS
CONSISTENT WITH ITS 12Z RUN FROM SUNDAY INDICATING A MORE AMPLIFIED
SHORTWAVE. THIS MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION WOULD BRING THE BOUNDARY AND
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE CLOSER TO THE REGION. THE 00Z MONDAY CMC IS
THE MOST AMPLIFIED AND BRINGS THE LOW OVER THE AREA FRIDAY. THE 00Z
GFS APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER AS THE 00Z GEFS ARE FURTHER NORTH WITH
THE LOW AND MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE SHORTWAVE. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE
LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC LIFT TO WORK WITH...AS THE REGION LOOKS TO LIE
IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET OVER NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WOULD BE A POSSIBILITY IF
THE MORE AMPLIFIED AND FURTHER NORTH SOLUTIONS COME TO FRUITION.
HAVE CONTINUED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST OF CHANCE POPS DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME FRAME.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE OFFSHORE LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO
THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY...AND THEN
AVERAGE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE REST OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH THIS EVE AND DRIFT OUT TO SEA ON TUE.

MAINLY VFR OUTSIDE OF TSTMS THRU THE TAF PERIOD.

SOME TSTM DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE MAINLY THIS EVE WITH A FRONTAL SYS.
COVERAGE AND EXACT TIMING UNCERTAIN TNGT SO VCTS USED IN THE
TAFS. AT KSWF...BETTER CHC FOR DEVELOPMENT AFT 22Z SO MAINTAINED A
TEMPO.

THERE COULD BE SOME MVFR VIS AT TIMES IN BR MAINLY KGON/KHPN/KSWF
AFT 4-6Z.

A GENERAL SW FLOW THRU THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE BACKED
CLOSER TO THE S THIS AFTN AND EVE ALONG THE COASTS DUE TO THE SEA
BREEZE ENHANCED FLOW.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: THERE IS A LOW CHC FOR TSTMS BEFORE 00Z.
STRONGER WINDS MAY LINGER TIL AROUND 2Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: THERE IS A LOW CHC FOR TSTMS BEFORE
00Z. STRONGER WINDS MAY LINGER TIL AROUND 2Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: THERE IS A LOW CHC FOR TSTMS BEFORE 00Z.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: THERE IS A LOW CHC FOR TSTMS BEFORE 00Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: THERE IS A LOW CHC FOR TSTMS BEFORE 00Z. CHC
FOR MVFR VIS AFT 4-6Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED THRU 21Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUE THROUGH SAT...
.REST OF TUE...SLGT CHC FOR TSTMS MAINLY CSTL TERMINALS. BECOMING
VFR OVERNIGHT.SW FLOW BECOMING NW OVERNIGHT.
.WED-THU...VFR. GENERALLY W FLOW.
.FRI...MVFR OR LOWER IN RAIN. WINDS BECOMING NE.
.SAT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN RAIN. NE WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS LATE TODAY...MOVING CLOSE TO
THE WATERS TONIGHT. WINDS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT INCREASE MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE LIGHTENING WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE FRONT.

OCEAN SEAS BUILD DUE TO THE INCREASE IN THESE WINDS. SCA
STARTING AT 4 PM LOCAL AND THROUGH TONIGHT. OCCASIONAL 25 KT
GUSTS POSSIBLE FOR NY HARBOR...WESTERN SOUTH SHORE BAYS AND
WESTERN LI SOUND LATE MONDAY AFT INTO MONDAY EVENING.

OCEAN SEAS WILL BE SUBSIDING TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT 5 FT SEAS MAY
LINGER ON THE EASTERN OCEAN UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY WITH SUB SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MAY PASS OVER THE WATERS FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK. OCCASIONAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL PRODUCT LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL...WHICH COULD LEAD TO MINOR POOR DRAINAGE NUISANCE FLOODING.

A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...A LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THIS
POTENTIAL EVENT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ075-
     080-081-178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/TONGUE
NEAR TERM...MD/TONGUE
SHORT TERM...TONGUE
LONG TERM...JP/DS
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...DS/TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...DS/TONGUE




000
FXUS61 KOKX 031757
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
157 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA LATE TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST ON TRACK THIS AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE NOW EAST OF THE
HUDSON BAY IN QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD...WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT MOVING TOWARDS THE
AREA THROUGH THE DAY. A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY IS EXPECTED
OVERALL...WITH SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATE IN THE DAY.

A FEW HI-RESOLUTION MODELS SHOWING AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS IN
NORTHERN NJ. SIDED WITH A GENERALLY DRIER AFTERNOON FORECAST OWING
TO SEASONABLY DRY AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND WARMING ALOFT
INDICATED ON RAP SOUNDINGS...ALSO EVIDENCED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
AS OF 17Z.

TEMPS ARE TOWARDS THE WARMER GFS MOS NUMBERS.

SEA BREEZE ENHANCED WITH THE AMBROSE JET EFFECT AND GUSTS TO NEAR
30 MPH LATE THIS AFTN OVER WESTERN LONG ISLAND. AS SUCH...THERE IS
A HIGH RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE OCEAN
BEACHES TODAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES. A RIP CURRENT STATEMENT
IS IN EFFECT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT SAGS INTO THE REGION BY TUESDAY MORNING AND THEN
BECOMES DIFFUSE. RATHER UNCERTAIN ON DETAILS FOR PCPN IN THIS
PERIOD. HAVE CONTINUED THE IDEA OF SCT CONVECTION INTO TUESDAY
MORNING.

TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER
90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
DEEP CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
INTO EASTERN CANADA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY. MUCH
DRIER AIR MOVES IN ON WEDNESDAY WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 50S. SOME
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES IN
THE AFTERNOON...BUT FEEL AT THIS TIME THE AIR MASS WILL BE TOO DRY
FOR ANY SHOWERS. HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST DRY FOR WEDNESDAY.

BY THURSDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON A PIECE OF ENERGY
INTERACTING WITH THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THIS SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MAY THEN MOVE ALONG THE BASE OF THE TROUGH THROUGH THE AREA
LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE AREA AND
MAY IMPACT THE REGION. THE 18Z SUN AND 00Z MONDAY GFS ARE FLATTER
WITH THE WAVE AND THUS KEEP LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE AREA COMPARED
TO ITS PREVIOUS 12Z SUNDAY RUN...WHILE THE 00Z MONDAY ECMWF IS
CONSISTENT WITH ITS 12Z RUN FROM SUNDAY INDICATING A MORE AMPLIFIED
SHORTWAVE. THIS MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION WOULD BRING THE BOUNDARY AND
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE CLOSER TO THE REGION. THE 00Z MONDAY CMC IS
THE MOST AMPLIFIED AND BRINGS THE LOW OVER THE AREA FRIDAY. THE 00Z
GFS APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER AS THE 00Z GEFS ARE FURTHER NORTH WITH
THE LOW AND MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE SHORTWAVE. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE
LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC LIFT TO WORK WITH...AS THE REGION LOOKS TO LIE
IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET OVER NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WOULD BE A POSSIBILITY IF
THE MORE AMPLIFIED AND FURTHER NORTH SOLUTIONS COME TO FRUITION.
HAVE CONTINUED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST OF CHANCE POPS DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME FRAME.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE OFFSHORE LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO
THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY...AND THEN
AVERAGE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE REST OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH THIS EVE AND DRIFT OUT TO SEA ON TUE.

MAINLY VFR OUTSIDE OF TSTMS THRU THE TAF PERIOD.

SOME TSTM DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE MAINLY THIS EVE WITH A FRONTAL SYS.
COVERAGE AND EXACT TIMING UNCERTAIN TNGT SO VCTS USED IN THE
TAFS. AT KSWF...BETTER CHC FOR DEVELOPMENT AFT 22Z SO MAINTAINED A
TEMPO.

THERE COULD BE SOME MVFR VIS AT TIMES IN BR MAINLY KGON/KHPN/KSWF
AFT 4-6Z.

A GENERAL SW FLOW THRU THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE BACKED
CLOSER TO THE S THIS AFTN AND EVE ALONG THE COASTS DUE TO THE SEA
BREEZE ENHANCED FLOW.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: THERE IS A LOW CHC FOR TSTMS BEFORE 00Z.
STRONGER WINDS MAY LINGER TIL AROUND 2Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: THERE IS A LOW CHC FOR TSTMS BEFORE
00Z. STRONGER WINDS MAY LINGER TIL AROUND 2Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: THERE IS A LOW CHC FOR TSTMS BEFORE 00Z.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: THERE IS A LOW CHC FOR TSTMS BEFORE 00Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: THERE IS A LOW CHC FOR TSTMS BEFORE 00Z. CHC
FOR MVFR VIS AFT 4-6Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED THRU 21Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUE THROUGH SAT...
.REST OF TUE...SLGT CHC FOR TSTMS MAINLY CSTL TERMINALS. BECOMING
VFR OVERNIGHT.SW FLOW BECOMING NW OVERNIGHT.
.WED-THU...VFR. GENERALLY W FLOW.
.FRI...MVFR OR LOWER IN RAIN. WINDS BECOMING NE.
.SAT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN RAIN. NE WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS LATE TODAY...MOVING CLOSE TO
THE WATERS TONIGHT. WINDS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT INCREASE MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE LIGHTENING WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE FRONT.

OCEAN SEAS BUILD DUE TO THE INCREASE IN THESE WINDS. SCA
STARTING AT 4 PM LOCAL AND THROUGH TONIGHT. OCCASIONAL 25 KT
GUSTS POSSIBLE FOR NY HARBOR...WESTERN SOUTH SHORE BAYS AND
WESTERN LI SOUND LATE MONDAY AFT INTO MONDAY EVENING.

OCEAN SEAS WILL BE SUBSIDING TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT 5 FT SEAS MAY
LINGER ON THE EASTERN OCEAN UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY WITH SUB SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MAY PASS OVER THE WATERS FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK. OCCASIONAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL PRODUCT LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL...WHICH COULD LEAD TO MINOR POOR DRAINAGE NUISANCE FLOODING.

A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...A LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THIS
POTENTIAL EVENT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ075-
     080-081-178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/TONGUE
NEAR TERM...MD/TONGUE
SHORT TERM...TONGUE
LONG TERM...JP/DS
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...DS/TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...DS/TONGUE




000
FXUS61 KOKX 031757
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
157 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA LATE TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST ON TRACK THIS AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE NOW EAST OF THE
HUDSON BAY IN QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD...WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT MOVING TOWARDS THE
AREA THROUGH THE DAY. A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY IS EXPECTED
OVERALL...WITH SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATE IN THE DAY.

A FEW HI-RESOLUTION MODELS SHOWING AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS IN
NORTHERN NJ. SIDED WITH A GENERALLY DRIER AFTERNOON FORECAST OWING
TO SEASONABLY DRY AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND WARMING ALOFT
INDICATED ON RAP SOUNDINGS...ALSO EVIDENCED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
AS OF 17Z.

TEMPS ARE TOWARDS THE WARMER GFS MOS NUMBERS.

SEA BREEZE ENHANCED WITH THE AMBROSE JET EFFECT AND GUSTS TO NEAR
30 MPH LATE THIS AFTN OVER WESTERN LONG ISLAND. AS SUCH...THERE IS
A HIGH RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE OCEAN
BEACHES TODAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES. A RIP CURRENT STATEMENT
IS IN EFFECT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT SAGS INTO THE REGION BY TUESDAY MORNING AND THEN
BECOMES DIFFUSE. RATHER UNCERTAIN ON DETAILS FOR PCPN IN THIS
PERIOD. HAVE CONTINUED THE IDEA OF SCT CONVECTION INTO TUESDAY
MORNING.

TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER
90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
DEEP CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
INTO EASTERN CANADA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY. MUCH
DRIER AIR MOVES IN ON WEDNESDAY WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 50S. SOME
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES IN
THE AFTERNOON...BUT FEEL AT THIS TIME THE AIR MASS WILL BE TOO DRY
FOR ANY SHOWERS. HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST DRY FOR WEDNESDAY.

BY THURSDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON A PIECE OF ENERGY
INTERACTING WITH THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THIS SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MAY THEN MOVE ALONG THE BASE OF THE TROUGH THROUGH THE AREA
LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE AREA AND
MAY IMPACT THE REGION. THE 18Z SUN AND 00Z MONDAY GFS ARE FLATTER
WITH THE WAVE AND THUS KEEP LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE AREA COMPARED
TO ITS PREVIOUS 12Z SUNDAY RUN...WHILE THE 00Z MONDAY ECMWF IS
CONSISTENT WITH ITS 12Z RUN FROM SUNDAY INDICATING A MORE AMPLIFIED
SHORTWAVE. THIS MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION WOULD BRING THE BOUNDARY AND
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE CLOSER TO THE REGION. THE 00Z MONDAY CMC IS
THE MOST AMPLIFIED AND BRINGS THE LOW OVER THE AREA FRIDAY. THE 00Z
GFS APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER AS THE 00Z GEFS ARE FURTHER NORTH WITH
THE LOW AND MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE SHORTWAVE. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE
LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC LIFT TO WORK WITH...AS THE REGION LOOKS TO LIE
IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET OVER NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WOULD BE A POSSIBILITY IF
THE MORE AMPLIFIED AND FURTHER NORTH SOLUTIONS COME TO FRUITION.
HAVE CONTINUED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST OF CHANCE POPS DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME FRAME.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE OFFSHORE LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO
THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY...AND THEN
AVERAGE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE REST OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH THIS EVE AND DRIFT OUT TO SEA ON TUE.

MAINLY VFR OUTSIDE OF TSTMS THRU THE TAF PERIOD.

SOME TSTM DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE MAINLY THIS EVE WITH A FRONTAL SYS.
COVERAGE AND EXACT TIMING UNCERTAIN TNGT SO VCTS USED IN THE
TAFS. AT KSWF...BETTER CHC FOR DEVELOPMENT AFT 22Z SO MAINTAINED A
TEMPO.

THERE COULD BE SOME MVFR VIS AT TIMES IN BR MAINLY KGON/KHPN/KSWF
AFT 4-6Z.

A GENERAL SW FLOW THRU THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE BACKED
CLOSER TO THE S THIS AFTN AND EVE ALONG THE COASTS DUE TO THE SEA
BREEZE ENHANCED FLOW.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: THERE IS A LOW CHC FOR TSTMS BEFORE 00Z.
STRONGER WINDS MAY LINGER TIL AROUND 2Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: THERE IS A LOW CHC FOR TSTMS BEFORE
00Z. STRONGER WINDS MAY LINGER TIL AROUND 2Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: THERE IS A LOW CHC FOR TSTMS BEFORE 00Z.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: THERE IS A LOW CHC FOR TSTMS BEFORE 00Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: THERE IS A LOW CHC FOR TSTMS BEFORE 00Z. CHC
FOR MVFR VIS AFT 4-6Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED THRU 21Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUE THROUGH SAT...
.REST OF TUE...SLGT CHC FOR TSTMS MAINLY CSTL TERMINALS. BECOMING
VFR OVERNIGHT.SW FLOW BECOMING NW OVERNIGHT.
.WED-THU...VFR. GENERALLY W FLOW.
.FRI...MVFR OR LOWER IN RAIN. WINDS BECOMING NE.
.SAT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN RAIN. NE WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS LATE TODAY...MOVING CLOSE TO
THE WATERS TONIGHT. WINDS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT INCREASE MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE LIGHTENING WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE FRONT.

OCEAN SEAS BUILD DUE TO THE INCREASE IN THESE WINDS. SCA
STARTING AT 4 PM LOCAL AND THROUGH TONIGHT. OCCASIONAL 25 KT
GUSTS POSSIBLE FOR NY HARBOR...WESTERN SOUTH SHORE BAYS AND
WESTERN LI SOUND LATE MONDAY AFT INTO MONDAY EVENING.

OCEAN SEAS WILL BE SUBSIDING TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT 5 FT SEAS MAY
LINGER ON THE EASTERN OCEAN UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY WITH SUB SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MAY PASS OVER THE WATERS FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK. OCCASIONAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL PRODUCT LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL...WHICH COULD LEAD TO MINOR POOR DRAINAGE NUISANCE FLOODING.

A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...A LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THIS
POTENTIAL EVENT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ075-
     080-081-178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/TONGUE
NEAR TERM...MD/TONGUE
SHORT TERM...TONGUE
LONG TERM...JP/DS
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...DS/TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...DS/TONGUE




000
FXUS61 KOKX 031757
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
157 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA LATE TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST ON TRACK THIS AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE NOW EAST OF THE
HUDSON BAY IN QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD...WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT MOVING TOWARDS THE
AREA THROUGH THE DAY. A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY IS EXPECTED
OVERALL...WITH SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATE IN THE DAY.

A FEW HI-RESOLUTION MODELS SHOWING AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS IN
NORTHERN NJ. SIDED WITH A GENERALLY DRIER AFTERNOON FORECAST OWING
TO SEASONABLY DRY AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND WARMING ALOFT
INDICATED ON RAP SOUNDINGS...ALSO EVIDENCED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
AS OF 17Z.

TEMPS ARE TOWARDS THE WARMER GFS MOS NUMBERS.

SEA BREEZE ENHANCED WITH THE AMBROSE JET EFFECT AND GUSTS TO NEAR
30 MPH LATE THIS AFTN OVER WESTERN LONG ISLAND. AS SUCH...THERE IS
A HIGH RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE OCEAN
BEACHES TODAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES. A RIP CURRENT STATEMENT
IS IN EFFECT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT SAGS INTO THE REGION BY TUESDAY MORNING AND THEN
BECOMES DIFFUSE. RATHER UNCERTAIN ON DETAILS FOR PCPN IN THIS
PERIOD. HAVE CONTINUED THE IDEA OF SCT CONVECTION INTO TUESDAY
MORNING.

TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER
90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
DEEP CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
INTO EASTERN CANADA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY. MUCH
DRIER AIR MOVES IN ON WEDNESDAY WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 50S. SOME
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES IN
THE AFTERNOON...BUT FEEL AT THIS TIME THE AIR MASS WILL BE TOO DRY
FOR ANY SHOWERS. HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST DRY FOR WEDNESDAY.

BY THURSDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON A PIECE OF ENERGY
INTERACTING WITH THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THIS SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MAY THEN MOVE ALONG THE BASE OF THE TROUGH THROUGH THE AREA
LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE AREA AND
MAY IMPACT THE REGION. THE 18Z SUN AND 00Z MONDAY GFS ARE FLATTER
WITH THE WAVE AND THUS KEEP LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE AREA COMPARED
TO ITS PREVIOUS 12Z SUNDAY RUN...WHILE THE 00Z MONDAY ECMWF IS
CONSISTENT WITH ITS 12Z RUN FROM SUNDAY INDICATING A MORE AMPLIFIED
SHORTWAVE. THIS MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION WOULD BRING THE BOUNDARY AND
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE CLOSER TO THE REGION. THE 00Z MONDAY CMC IS
THE MOST AMPLIFIED AND BRINGS THE LOW OVER THE AREA FRIDAY. THE 00Z
GFS APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER AS THE 00Z GEFS ARE FURTHER NORTH WITH
THE LOW AND MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE SHORTWAVE. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE
LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC LIFT TO WORK WITH...AS THE REGION LOOKS TO LIE
IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET OVER NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WOULD BE A POSSIBILITY IF
THE MORE AMPLIFIED AND FURTHER NORTH SOLUTIONS COME TO FRUITION.
HAVE CONTINUED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST OF CHANCE POPS DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME FRAME.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE OFFSHORE LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO
THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY...AND THEN
AVERAGE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE REST OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH THIS EVE AND DRIFT OUT TO SEA ON TUE.

MAINLY VFR OUTSIDE OF TSTMS THRU THE TAF PERIOD.

SOME TSTM DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE MAINLY THIS EVE WITH A FRONTAL SYS.
COVERAGE AND EXACT TIMING UNCERTAIN TNGT SO VCTS USED IN THE
TAFS. AT KSWF...BETTER CHC FOR DEVELOPMENT AFT 22Z SO MAINTAINED A
TEMPO.

THERE COULD BE SOME MVFR VIS AT TIMES IN BR MAINLY KGON/KHPN/KSWF
AFT 4-6Z.

A GENERAL SW FLOW THRU THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE BACKED
CLOSER TO THE S THIS AFTN AND EVE ALONG THE COASTS DUE TO THE SEA
BREEZE ENHANCED FLOW.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: THERE IS A LOW CHC FOR TSTMS BEFORE 00Z.
STRONGER WINDS MAY LINGER TIL AROUND 2Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: THERE IS A LOW CHC FOR TSTMS BEFORE
00Z. STRONGER WINDS MAY LINGER TIL AROUND 2Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: THERE IS A LOW CHC FOR TSTMS BEFORE 00Z.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: THERE IS A LOW CHC FOR TSTMS BEFORE 00Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: THERE IS A LOW CHC FOR TSTMS BEFORE 00Z. CHC
FOR MVFR VIS AFT 4-6Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED THRU 21Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUE THROUGH SAT...
.REST OF TUE...SLGT CHC FOR TSTMS MAINLY CSTL TERMINALS. BECOMING
VFR OVERNIGHT.SW FLOW BECOMING NW OVERNIGHT.
.WED-THU...VFR. GENERALLY W FLOW.
.FRI...MVFR OR LOWER IN RAIN. WINDS BECOMING NE.
.SAT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN RAIN. NE WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS LATE TODAY...MOVING CLOSE TO
THE WATERS TONIGHT. WINDS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT INCREASE MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE LIGHTENING WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE FRONT.

OCEAN SEAS BUILD DUE TO THE INCREASE IN THESE WINDS. SCA
STARTING AT 4 PM LOCAL AND THROUGH TONIGHT. OCCASIONAL 25 KT
GUSTS POSSIBLE FOR NY HARBOR...WESTERN SOUTH SHORE BAYS AND
WESTERN LI SOUND LATE MONDAY AFT INTO MONDAY EVENING.

OCEAN SEAS WILL BE SUBSIDING TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT 5 FT SEAS MAY
LINGER ON THE EASTERN OCEAN UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY WITH SUB SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MAY PASS OVER THE WATERS FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK. OCCASIONAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL PRODUCT LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL...WHICH COULD LEAD TO MINOR POOR DRAINAGE NUISANCE FLOODING.

A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...A LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THIS
POTENTIAL EVENT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ075-
     080-081-178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/TONGUE
NEAR TERM...MD/TONGUE
SHORT TERM...TONGUE
LONG TERM...JP/DS
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...DS/TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...DS/TONGUE




000
FXUS61 KOKX 031757
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
157 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA LATE TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST ON TRACK THIS AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE NOW EAST OF THE
HUDSON BAY IN QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD...WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT MOVING TOWARDS THE
AREA THROUGH THE DAY. A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY IS EXPECTED
OVERALL...WITH SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATE IN THE DAY.

A FEW HI-RESOLUTION MODELS SHOWING AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS IN
NORTHERN NJ. SIDED WITH A GENERALLY DRIER AFTERNOON FORECAST OWING
TO SEASONABLY DRY AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND WARMING ALOFT
INDICATED ON RAP SOUNDINGS...ALSO EVIDENCED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
AS OF 17Z.

TEMPS ARE TOWARDS THE WARMER GFS MOS NUMBERS.

SEA BREEZE ENHANCED WITH THE AMBROSE JET EFFECT AND GUSTS TO NEAR
30 MPH LATE THIS AFTN OVER WESTERN LONG ISLAND. AS SUCH...THERE IS
A HIGH RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE OCEAN
BEACHES TODAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES. A RIP CURRENT STATEMENT
IS IN EFFECT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT SAGS INTO THE REGION BY TUESDAY MORNING AND THEN
BECOMES DIFFUSE. RATHER UNCERTAIN ON DETAILS FOR PCPN IN THIS
PERIOD. HAVE CONTINUED THE IDEA OF SCT CONVECTION INTO TUESDAY
MORNING.

TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER
90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
DEEP CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
INTO EASTERN CANADA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY. MUCH
DRIER AIR MOVES IN ON WEDNESDAY WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 50S. SOME
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES IN
THE AFTERNOON...BUT FEEL AT THIS TIME THE AIR MASS WILL BE TOO DRY
FOR ANY SHOWERS. HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST DRY FOR WEDNESDAY.

BY THURSDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON A PIECE OF ENERGY
INTERACTING WITH THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THIS SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MAY THEN MOVE ALONG THE BASE OF THE TROUGH THROUGH THE AREA
LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE AREA AND
MAY IMPACT THE REGION. THE 18Z SUN AND 00Z MONDAY GFS ARE FLATTER
WITH THE WAVE AND THUS KEEP LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE AREA COMPARED
TO ITS PREVIOUS 12Z SUNDAY RUN...WHILE THE 00Z MONDAY ECMWF IS
CONSISTENT WITH ITS 12Z RUN FROM SUNDAY INDICATING A MORE AMPLIFIED
SHORTWAVE. THIS MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION WOULD BRING THE BOUNDARY AND
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE CLOSER TO THE REGION. THE 00Z MONDAY CMC IS
THE MOST AMPLIFIED AND BRINGS THE LOW OVER THE AREA FRIDAY. THE 00Z
GFS APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER AS THE 00Z GEFS ARE FURTHER NORTH WITH
THE LOW AND MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE SHORTWAVE. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE
LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC LIFT TO WORK WITH...AS THE REGION LOOKS TO LIE
IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET OVER NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WOULD BE A POSSIBILITY IF
THE MORE AMPLIFIED AND FURTHER NORTH SOLUTIONS COME TO FRUITION.
HAVE CONTINUED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST OF CHANCE POPS DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME FRAME.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE OFFSHORE LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO
THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY...AND THEN
AVERAGE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE REST OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH THIS EVE AND DRIFT OUT TO SEA ON TUE.

MAINLY VFR OUTSIDE OF TSTMS THRU THE TAF PERIOD.

SOME TSTM DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE MAINLY THIS EVE WITH A FRONTAL SYS.
COVERAGE AND EXACT TIMING UNCERTAIN TNGT SO VCTS USED IN THE
TAFS. AT KSWF...BETTER CHC FOR DEVELOPMENT AFT 22Z SO MAINTAINED A
TEMPO.

THERE COULD BE SOME MVFR VIS AT TIMES IN BR MAINLY KGON/KHPN/KSWF
AFT 4-6Z.

A GENERAL SW FLOW THRU THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE BACKED
CLOSER TO THE S THIS AFTN AND EVE ALONG THE COASTS DUE TO THE SEA
BREEZE ENHANCED FLOW.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: THERE IS A LOW CHC FOR TSTMS BEFORE 00Z.
STRONGER WINDS MAY LINGER TIL AROUND 2Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: THERE IS A LOW CHC FOR TSTMS BEFORE
00Z. STRONGER WINDS MAY LINGER TIL AROUND 2Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: THERE IS A LOW CHC FOR TSTMS BEFORE 00Z.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: THERE IS A LOW CHC FOR TSTMS BEFORE 00Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: THERE IS A LOW CHC FOR TSTMS BEFORE 00Z. CHC
FOR MVFR VIS AFT 4-6Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED THRU 21Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUE THROUGH SAT...
.REST OF TUE...SLGT CHC FOR TSTMS MAINLY CSTL TERMINALS. BECOMING
VFR OVERNIGHT.SW FLOW BECOMING NW OVERNIGHT.
.WED-THU...VFR. GENERALLY W FLOW.
.FRI...MVFR OR LOWER IN RAIN. WINDS BECOMING NE.
.SAT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN RAIN. NE WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS LATE TODAY...MOVING CLOSE TO
THE WATERS TONIGHT. WINDS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT INCREASE MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE LIGHTENING WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE FRONT.

OCEAN SEAS BUILD DUE TO THE INCREASE IN THESE WINDS. SCA
STARTING AT 4 PM LOCAL AND THROUGH TONIGHT. OCCASIONAL 25 KT
GUSTS POSSIBLE FOR NY HARBOR...WESTERN SOUTH SHORE BAYS AND
WESTERN LI SOUND LATE MONDAY AFT INTO MONDAY EVENING.

OCEAN SEAS WILL BE SUBSIDING TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT 5 FT SEAS MAY
LINGER ON THE EASTERN OCEAN UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY WITH SUB SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MAY PASS OVER THE WATERS FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK. OCCASIONAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL PRODUCT LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL...WHICH COULD LEAD TO MINOR POOR DRAINAGE NUISANCE FLOODING.

A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...A LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THIS
POTENTIAL EVENT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ075-
     080-081-178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/TONGUE
NEAR TERM...MD/TONGUE
SHORT TERM...TONGUE
LONG TERM...JP/DS
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...DS/TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...DS/TONGUE



000
FXUS61 KOKX 031757
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
157 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA LATE TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST ON TRACK THIS AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE NOW EAST OF THE
HUDSON BAY IN QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD...WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT MOVING TOWARDS THE
AREA THROUGH THE DAY. A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY IS EXPECTED
OVERALL...WITH SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATE IN THE DAY.

A FEW HI-RESOLUTION MODELS SHOWING AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS IN
NORTHERN NJ. SIDED WITH A GENERALLY DRIER AFTERNOON FORECAST OWING
TO SEASONABLY DRY AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND WARMING ALOFT
INDICATED ON RAP SOUNDINGS...ALSO EVIDENCED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
AS OF 17Z.

TEMPS ARE TOWARDS THE WARMER GFS MOS NUMBERS.

SEA BREEZE ENHANCED WITH THE AMBROSE JET EFFECT AND GUSTS TO NEAR
30 MPH LATE THIS AFTN OVER WESTERN LONG ISLAND. AS SUCH...THERE IS
A HIGH RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE OCEAN
BEACHES TODAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES. A RIP CURRENT STATEMENT
IS IN EFFECT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT SAGS INTO THE REGION BY TUESDAY MORNING AND THEN
BECOMES DIFFUSE. RATHER UNCERTAIN ON DETAILS FOR PCPN IN THIS
PERIOD. HAVE CONTINUED THE IDEA OF SCT CONVECTION INTO TUESDAY
MORNING.

TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER
90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
DEEP CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
INTO EASTERN CANADA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY. MUCH
DRIER AIR MOVES IN ON WEDNESDAY WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 50S. SOME
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES IN
THE AFTERNOON...BUT FEEL AT THIS TIME THE AIR MASS WILL BE TOO DRY
FOR ANY SHOWERS. HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST DRY FOR WEDNESDAY.

BY THURSDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON A PIECE OF ENERGY
INTERACTING WITH THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THIS SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MAY THEN MOVE ALONG THE BASE OF THE TROUGH THROUGH THE AREA
LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE AREA AND
MAY IMPACT THE REGION. THE 18Z SUN AND 00Z MONDAY GFS ARE FLATTER
WITH THE WAVE AND THUS KEEP LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE AREA COMPARED
TO ITS PREVIOUS 12Z SUNDAY RUN...WHILE THE 00Z MONDAY ECMWF IS
CONSISTENT WITH ITS 12Z RUN FROM SUNDAY INDICATING A MORE AMPLIFIED
SHORTWAVE. THIS MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION WOULD BRING THE BOUNDARY AND
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE CLOSER TO THE REGION. THE 00Z MONDAY CMC IS
THE MOST AMPLIFIED AND BRINGS THE LOW OVER THE AREA FRIDAY. THE 00Z
GFS APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER AS THE 00Z GEFS ARE FURTHER NORTH WITH
THE LOW AND MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE SHORTWAVE. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE
LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC LIFT TO WORK WITH...AS THE REGION LOOKS TO LIE
IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET OVER NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WOULD BE A POSSIBILITY IF
THE MORE AMPLIFIED AND FURTHER NORTH SOLUTIONS COME TO FRUITION.
HAVE CONTINUED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST OF CHANCE POPS DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME FRAME.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE OFFSHORE LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO
THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY...AND THEN
AVERAGE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE REST OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH THIS EVE AND DRIFT OUT TO SEA ON TUE.

MAINLY VFR OUTSIDE OF TSTMS THRU THE TAF PERIOD.

SOME TSTM DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE MAINLY THIS EVE WITH A FRONTAL SYS.
COVERAGE AND EXACT TIMING UNCERTAIN TNGT SO VCTS USED IN THE
TAFS. AT KSWF...BETTER CHC FOR DEVELOPMENT AFT 22Z SO MAINTAINED A
TEMPO.

THERE COULD BE SOME MVFR VIS AT TIMES IN BR MAINLY KGON/KHPN/KSWF
AFT 4-6Z.

A GENERAL SW FLOW THRU THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE BACKED
CLOSER TO THE S THIS AFTN AND EVE ALONG THE COASTS DUE TO THE SEA
BREEZE ENHANCED FLOW.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: THERE IS A LOW CHC FOR TSTMS BEFORE 00Z.
STRONGER WINDS MAY LINGER TIL AROUND 2Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: THERE IS A LOW CHC FOR TSTMS BEFORE
00Z. STRONGER WINDS MAY LINGER TIL AROUND 2Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: THERE IS A LOW CHC FOR TSTMS BEFORE 00Z.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: THERE IS A LOW CHC FOR TSTMS BEFORE 00Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: THERE IS A LOW CHC FOR TSTMS BEFORE 00Z. CHC
FOR MVFR VIS AFT 4-6Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED THRU 21Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUE THROUGH SAT...
.REST OF TUE...SLGT CHC FOR TSTMS MAINLY CSTL TERMINALS. BECOMING
VFR OVERNIGHT.SW FLOW BECOMING NW OVERNIGHT.
.WED-THU...VFR. GENERALLY W FLOW.
.FRI...MVFR OR LOWER IN RAIN. WINDS BECOMING NE.
.SAT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN RAIN. NE WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS LATE TODAY...MOVING CLOSE TO
THE WATERS TONIGHT. WINDS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT INCREASE MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE LIGHTENING WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE FRONT.

OCEAN SEAS BUILD DUE TO THE INCREASE IN THESE WINDS. SCA
STARTING AT 4 PM LOCAL AND THROUGH TONIGHT. OCCASIONAL 25 KT
GUSTS POSSIBLE FOR NY HARBOR...WESTERN SOUTH SHORE BAYS AND
WESTERN LI SOUND LATE MONDAY AFT INTO MONDAY EVENING.

OCEAN SEAS WILL BE SUBSIDING TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT 5 FT SEAS MAY
LINGER ON THE EASTERN OCEAN UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY WITH SUB SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MAY PASS OVER THE WATERS FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK. OCCASIONAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL PRODUCT LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL...WHICH COULD LEAD TO MINOR POOR DRAINAGE NUISANCE FLOODING.

A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...A LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THIS
POTENTIAL EVENT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ075-
     080-081-178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/TONGUE
NEAR TERM...MD/TONGUE
SHORT TERM...TONGUE
LONG TERM...JP/DS
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...DS/TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...DS/TONGUE




000
FXUS61 KALY 031742
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
142 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING AND MOVE TO
THE COAST BY MORNING. IT MAY TRIGGER STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
LINGER OVER QUEBEC THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...BRINGING COOLER AIR
INTO OUR REGION...AND TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY NORTH OF I90
AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...

AS OF 930 AM EDT...MOST OF THE CIN IS MIXED OUT...A FINE LINE/PRE
FRONTAL TROF IS FM SLK-BGM AND APPEARS IT WILL BE THE FOCUS OF
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTN. AHEAD OF IT SKIES HAVE BEEN
SUNNY...TD ARE IN THE LOWER 60S AND TEMPS ARE IN THE 80S WITH A
FEW MORE HOURS OF DIURNAL HEATING TO GO. AT 500HPA THE FIRST
SHORT WV ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE LARGE QB/ONT CUT OFF IS
IN THE E GRTLKS AND MVNG SLOWLY E WITH THE BEST DYNAMICS N OR N OF
FCA.

MU CAPE VALUES ARE NOW IN THE VCNTY OF 1000-1500 J/KG...MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE ARND 6.5C. SCT TSTMS WILL FORM ALONG THIS LINE
DURING THE AFTN HRS...WHICH WILL BE COME STRONG AND SOME MAY BE
SEVERE.

THIS SCT-BKN LINE OF STORMS WILL PROGRESS IN BOWING SEGMENTS
ACROSS THE RGN DURING THE AFTN AND EVNG. SEE LATEST SPC DISC. PRE-
FRONTAL TROF WILL REACH SVT-RDG BY EVNG...AND DRIFT EAST AS
ACTIVITY DIM AND ATMOS STABILIZES. OVERNIGHT THIS BOUNDARY WILL
SHIFT EAST AS THE MAIN CDFNT MOVES INTO THE E GRTLKS...AND THEN
TO COAST BY DAYBREAK.

WITH CYCLONIC 500HPA FLOW ACROSS THE RGN AND COOLING AT 500HPACLOUDS
WILL INCR N TWRD DAYBREAK. MINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR WRN NEW ENGLAND BY
DAYBREAK. THE SFC DEWPT BOUNDARY WILL STILL BE PROGRESSING EAST
ACROSS ERN NY. THE NAM IS ADVERTISING ALOT OF INSTABILITY FOR TUE
WITH A DEEPLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THE GFS HAS LESS AGAIN...BUT
THERE IS A SMALL AREA OF HIGH INSTABILITY FROM THE THE MASS PIKE
SOUTH AND EAST INTO NW CT. SPC DOES HAVE LITCHFIELD CTY CLIPPED BY
THE MARGINAL RISK. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE AROUND 6.5C/KM
WITH ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR SOME STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL /NO ENHANCED WORDING YET/...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST. LOW- LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING
DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE PM. DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS OFF THE
ERN CATSKILLS/ERN DACKS MAY ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO GET INTO THE MID
AND U80S IN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION. EXPECT M70S TO
L80S IN MOST OTHER LOCATIONS...EXCEPT OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN
GREENS WHERE SOME U60S TO L70S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE COLD ADVECTION
REGIME...AS H850 TEMPS LOWER TO +10C TO +16C FROM NW TO SE OVER
THE FCST AREA BY THE LATE PM. A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SUNSET.

TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL HEATING THE SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY. THE ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS MAY LINGER THE LONGEST OVER THE SRN DACKS. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60F WITH SOME U40S TO L50S
OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN GREENS. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE QUITE
COMFORTABLE.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE FCST AREA WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER S-CNTRL QUEBEC. IN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW ANOTHER PIECE OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY WILL SWING ACROSS UPSTATE
NY AND NEW ENGLAND. THE BEST CHC OF ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS DUE TO THE
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. H500 TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -15C TO -18C FROM ALY
NORTH AND WEST. THE H500 HEIGHTS ARE ABOUT 2-3 STD DEVS BELOW
NORMAL BASED ON THE LATEST GEFS FOR WED. H850 TEMPS WILL BE 1-2
STD DEVS BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS ON WED WILL BE IN THE M60S TO L70S
OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS...WITH A FEW 80F
READINGS NEAR KPOU. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR COOL NIGHT FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF AUG...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE U40S TO M50S OVER
THE FCST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.

GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT SHOULD STALL TO OUR
SOUTH LATE IN THE WEEK SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE EXACT
LOCATION IS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION AT THIS TIME. GUIDANCE IS ALSO IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE IN THE WEEK LEAVING THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
NORTHEAST UNDER A LONGWAVE TROUGH THOUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS ARE ON HOW THEY HANDLE SHORT WAVE ENERGY
MOVING THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AND ITS IMPACTS THE POSITION OF THE
STALLED BOUNDARY AND THE STRENGTHEN OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT IS
EXPECTED TO FORM AND MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY. GUIDANCE HAVE NOT
BEEN SHOWING ANY CONSISTENCY. AT THIS TIME...THE OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE GFS
KEEPS THE BOUNDARY...LOW AND PRECIPITATION SHIELD TO OUR SOUTH WHILE THE
ECMWF BRINGS A SOAKING RAINFALL TO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
TO MAINLY TO AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90.

HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER TO MAINTAIN
FORECAST CONSISTENCY AND HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-90 LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AS FOR THE WEEKEND...HAVE MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCES
POPS SINCE THE TIMING OF ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVES IN HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE
TAF SITES AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH
CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR WITH THE CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT HAVE NOT BEEN INCLUDE
IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. OVERNIGHT GENERALLY MVFR CONDS W/AREAS
2SM IN BR. PATCHES OF IFR IN FOG ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT AS THE CLOUD COVER DECREASES AND WINDS LIGHTEN UP.

AT THE TAF SITES SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE 10 TO 20 KNOTS AND
GUSTY INTO THE EVENING. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT SOUTHERLY LATER
THIS EVENING...AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU NIGHT-FRI: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TODAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE COLD
FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING...BUT AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
ARRIVE FOR WEDNESDAY.

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 40 TO 60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...AND
INCREASE TO 75 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO
35 TO 55 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH
TODAY...AND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH TONIGHT. THE WINDS
WILL BE FORM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH ON TUESDAY WITH
THE FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS RISE UP TO AROUND 1.5
INCHES AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO
SOME MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS. ALSO
SOME SHARP WITHIN BANK RISES WOULD BE EXPECTED ON STREAMS...CREEKS
AND SOME SMALL RIVERS.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES AND PASSES OVER THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY
RANGE FROM A TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS.

A TREND TOWARDS DRIER WEATHER WILL OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...AND
CONTINUE UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...SNYDER
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...SNYDER
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA



000
FXUS61 KALY 031742
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
142 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING AND MOVE TO
THE COAST BY MORNING. IT MAY TRIGGER STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
LINGER OVER QUEBEC THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...BRINGING COOLER AIR
INTO OUR REGION...AND TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY NORTH OF I90
AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...

AS OF 930 AM EDT...MOST OF THE CIN IS MIXED OUT...A FINE LINE/PRE
FRONTAL TROF IS FM SLK-BGM AND APPEARS IT WILL BE THE FOCUS OF
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTN. AHEAD OF IT SKIES HAVE BEEN
SUNNY...TD ARE IN THE LOWER 60S AND TEMPS ARE IN THE 80S WITH A
FEW MORE HOURS OF DIURNAL HEATING TO GO. AT 500HPA THE FIRST
SHORT WV ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE LARGE QB/ONT CUT OFF IS
IN THE E GRTLKS AND MVNG SLOWLY E WITH THE BEST DYNAMICS N OR N OF
FCA.

MU CAPE VALUES ARE NOW IN THE VCNTY OF 1000-1500 J/KG...MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE ARND 6.5C. SCT TSTMS WILL FORM ALONG THIS LINE
DURING THE AFTN HRS...WHICH WILL BE COME STRONG AND SOME MAY BE
SEVERE.

THIS SCT-BKN LINE OF STORMS WILL PROGRESS IN BOWING SEGMENTS
ACROSS THE RGN DURING THE AFTN AND EVNG. SEE LATEST SPC DISC. PRE-
FRONTAL TROF WILL REACH SVT-RDG BY EVNG...AND DRIFT EAST AS
ACTIVITY DIM AND ATMOS STABILIZES. OVERNIGHT THIS BOUNDARY WILL
SHIFT EAST AS THE MAIN CDFNT MOVES INTO THE E GRTLKS...AND THEN
TO COAST BY DAYBREAK.

WITH CYCLONIC 500HPA FLOW ACROSS THE RGN AND COOLING AT 500HPACLOUDS
WILL INCR N TWRD DAYBREAK. MINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR WRN NEW ENGLAND BY
DAYBREAK. THE SFC DEWPT BOUNDARY WILL STILL BE PROGRESSING EAST
ACROSS ERN NY. THE NAM IS ADVERTISING ALOT OF INSTABILITY FOR TUE
WITH A DEEPLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THE GFS HAS LESS AGAIN...BUT
THERE IS A SMALL AREA OF HIGH INSTABILITY FROM THE THE MASS PIKE
SOUTH AND EAST INTO NW CT. SPC DOES HAVE LITCHFIELD CTY CLIPPED BY
THE MARGINAL RISK. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE AROUND 6.5C/KM
WITH ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR SOME STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL /NO ENHANCED WORDING YET/...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST. LOW- LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING
DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE PM. DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS OFF THE
ERN CATSKILLS/ERN DACKS MAY ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO GET INTO THE MID
AND U80S IN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION. EXPECT M70S TO
L80S IN MOST OTHER LOCATIONS...EXCEPT OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN
GREENS WHERE SOME U60S TO L70S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE COLD ADVECTION
REGIME...AS H850 TEMPS LOWER TO +10C TO +16C FROM NW TO SE OVER
THE FCST AREA BY THE LATE PM. A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SUNSET.

TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL HEATING THE SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY. THE ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS MAY LINGER THE LONGEST OVER THE SRN DACKS. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60F WITH SOME U40S TO L50S
OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN GREENS. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE QUITE
COMFORTABLE.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE FCST AREA WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER S-CNTRL QUEBEC. IN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW ANOTHER PIECE OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY WILL SWING ACROSS UPSTATE
NY AND NEW ENGLAND. THE BEST CHC OF ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS DUE TO THE
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. H500 TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -15C TO -18C FROM ALY
NORTH AND WEST. THE H500 HEIGHTS ARE ABOUT 2-3 STD DEVS BELOW
NORMAL BASED ON THE LATEST GEFS FOR WED. H850 TEMPS WILL BE 1-2
STD DEVS BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS ON WED WILL BE IN THE M60S TO L70S
OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS...WITH A FEW 80F
READINGS NEAR KPOU. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR COOL NIGHT FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF AUG...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE U40S TO M50S OVER
THE FCST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.

GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT SHOULD STALL TO OUR
SOUTH LATE IN THE WEEK SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE EXACT
LOCATION IS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION AT THIS TIME. GUIDANCE IS ALSO IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE IN THE WEEK LEAVING THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
NORTHEAST UNDER A LONGWAVE TROUGH THOUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS ARE ON HOW THEY HANDLE SHORT WAVE ENERGY
MOVING THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AND ITS IMPACTS THE POSITION OF THE
STALLED BOUNDARY AND THE STRENGTHEN OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT IS
EXPECTED TO FORM AND MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY. GUIDANCE HAVE NOT
BEEN SHOWING ANY CONSISTENCY. AT THIS TIME...THE OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE GFS
KEEPS THE BOUNDARY...LOW AND PRECIPITATION SHIELD TO OUR SOUTH WHILE THE
ECMWF BRINGS A SOAKING RAINFALL TO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
TO MAINLY TO AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90.

HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER TO MAINTAIN
FORECAST CONSISTENCY AND HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-90 LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AS FOR THE WEEKEND...HAVE MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCES
POPS SINCE THE TIMING OF ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVES IN HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE
TAF SITES AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH
CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR WITH THE CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT HAVE NOT BEEN INCLUDE
IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. OVERNIGHT GENERALLY MVFR CONDS W/AREAS
2SM IN BR. PATCHES OF IFR IN FOG ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT AS THE CLOUD COVER DECREASES AND WINDS LIGHTEN UP.

AT THE TAF SITES SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE 10 TO 20 KNOTS AND
GUSTY INTO THE EVENING. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT SOUTHERLY LATER
THIS EVENING...AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU NIGHT-FRI: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TODAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE COLD
FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING...BUT AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
ARRIVE FOR WEDNESDAY.

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 40 TO 60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...AND
INCREASE TO 75 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO
35 TO 55 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH
TODAY...AND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH TONIGHT. THE WINDS
WILL BE FORM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH ON TUESDAY WITH
THE FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS RISE UP TO AROUND 1.5
INCHES AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO
SOME MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS. ALSO
SOME SHARP WITHIN BANK RISES WOULD BE EXPECTED ON STREAMS...CREEKS
AND SOME SMALL RIVERS.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES AND PASSES OVER THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY
RANGE FROM A TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS.

A TREND TOWARDS DRIER WEATHER WILL OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...AND
CONTINUE UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...SNYDER
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...SNYDER
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 031718
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
118 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING AND MOVE TO
THE COAST BY MORNING. IT MAY TRIGGER STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
LINGER OVER QUEBEC THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...BRINGING COOLER AIR
INTO OUR REGION...AND TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY NORTH OF I90
AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...

AS OF 930 AM EDT...MOST OF THE CIN IS MIXED OUT...A FINE LINE/PRE
FRONTAL TROF IS FM SLK-BGM AND APPEARS IT WILL BE THE FOCUS OF
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTN. AHEAD OF IT SKIES HAVE BEEN
SUNNY...TD ARE IN THE LOWER 60S AND TEMPS ARE IN THE 80S WITH A
FEW MORE HOURS OF DIURNAL HEATING TO GO. AT 500HPA THE FIRST
SHORT WV ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE LARGE QB/ONT CUT OFF IS
IN THE E GRTLKS AND MVNG SLOWLY E WITH THE BEST DYNAMICS N OR N OF
FCA.

MU CAPE VALUES ARE NOW IN THE VCNTY OF 1000-1500 J/KG...MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE ARND 6.5C. SCT TSTMS WILL FORM ALONG THIS LINE
DURING THE AFTN HRS...WHICH WILL BE COME STRONG AND SOME MAY BE
SEVERE.

THIS SCT-BKN LINE OF STORMS WILL PROGRESS IN BOWING SEGMENTS
ACROSS THE RGN DURING THE AFTN AND EVNG. SEE LATEST SPC DISC. PRE-
FRONTAL TROF WILL REACH SVT-RDG BY EVNG...AND DRIFT EAST AS
ACTIVITY DIM AND ATMOS STABLIZES. OVERNIGHT THIS BOUNDARY WILL
SHIFT EAST AS THE MAIN CDFNT MVES INTO THE E GRTLKS...AND THEN TO
COAST BY DAYBREAK.

WITH CYCLONIC 500HPA FLOW ACROSS THE RGN AND COOLING AT 500HPACLOUDS
WILL INCR N TWRD DAYBREAK. MINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR WRN NEW ENGLAND BY
DAYBREAK. THE SFC DEWPT BOUNDARY WILL STILL BE PROGRESSING EAST
ACROSS ERN NY. THE NAM IS ADVERTISING ALOT OF INSTABILITY FOR TUE
WITH A DEEPLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THE GFS HAS LESS AGAIN...BUT
THERE IS A SMALL AREA OF HIGH INSTABILITY FROM THE THE MASS PIKE
SOUTH AND EAST INTO NW CT. SPC DOES HAVE LITCHFIELD CTY CLIPPED BY
THE MARGINAL RISK. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE AROUND 6.5C/KM
WITH ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR SOME STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL /NO ENHANCED WORDING YET/...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST. LOW- LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING
DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE PM. DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS OFF THE
ERN CATSKILLS/ERN DACKS MAY ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO GET INTO THE MID
AND U80S IN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION. EXPECT M70S TO
L80S IN MOST OTHER LOCATIONS...EXCEPT OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN
GREENS WHERE SOME U60S TO L70S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE COLD ADVECTION
REGIME...AS H850 TEMPS LOWER TO +10C TO +16C FROM NW TO SE OVER
THE FCST AREA BY THE LATE PM. A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SUNSET.

TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL HEATING THE SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY. THE ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS MAY LINGER THE LONGEST OVER THE SRN DACKS. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60F WITH SOME U40S TO L50S
OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN GREENS. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE QUITE
COMFORTABLE.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE FCST AREA WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER S-CNTRL QUEBEC. IN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW ANOTHER PIECE OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY WILL SWING ACROSS UPSTATE
NY AND NEW ENGLAND. THE BEST CHC OF ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS DUE TO THE
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. H500 TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -15C TO -18C FROM ALY
NORTH AND WEST. THE H500 HEIGHTS ARE ABOUT 2-3 STD DEVS BELOW
NORMAL BASED ON THE LATEST GEFS FOR WED. H850 TEMPS WILL BE 1-2
STD DEVS BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS ON WED WILL BE IN THE M60S TO L70S
OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS...WITH A FEW 80F
READINGS NEAR KPOU. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR COOL NIGHT FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF AUG...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE U40S TO M50S OVER
THE FCST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.

GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT SHOULD STALL TO OUR
SOUTH LATE IN THE WEEK SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE EXACT
LOCATION IS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION AT THIS TIME. GUIDANCE IS ALSO IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE IN THE WEEK LEAVING THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
NORTHEAST UNDER A LONGWAVE TROUGH THOUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS ARE ON HOW THEY HANDLE SHORT WAVE ENERGY
MOVING THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AND ITS IMPACTS THE POSITION OF THE
STALLED BOUNDARY AND THE STRENGTHEN OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT IS
EXPECTED TO FORM AND MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY. GUIDANCE HAVE NOT
BEEN SHOWING ANY CONSISTENCY. AT THIS TIME...THE OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE GFS
KEEPS THE BOUNDARY...LOW AND PRECIPITATION SHIELD TO OUR SOUTH WHILE THE
ECMWF BRINGS A SOAKING RAINFALL TO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
TO MAINLY TO AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90.

HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER TO MAINTAIN
FORECAST CONSISTENCY AND HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-90 LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AS FOR THE WEEKEND...HAVE MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCES
POPS SINCE THE TIMING OF ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVES IN HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE
TAF SITES AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH
CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR WITH THE CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT HAVE NOT BEEN INCLUDE
IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. HAVE ADDRESSED THE THREAT OF THE STORMS WITH
A PROB30 GROUP INCLUDING THUNDERSTORMS. FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT AS THE CLOUD COVER DECREASES AND WINDS LIGHTEN UP.

AT KALB...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AND ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY.
AT THE OTHER TAF SITES...A SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND WILL DEVELOP
WHICH WILL BECOME GUSTY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY. A LIGHTER
SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE STORMS AS WE HEAD INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU NIGHT-FRI: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TODAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE COLD
FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING...BUT AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
ARRIVE FOR WEDNESDAY.

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 40 TO 60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...AND
INCREASE TO 75 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO
35 TO 55 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH
TODAY...AND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH TONIGHT. THE WINDS
WILL BE FORM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH ON TUESDAY WITH
THE FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS RISE UP TO AROUND 1.5
INCHES AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO
SOME MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS. ALSO
SOME SHARP WITHIN BANK RISES WOULD BE EXPECTED ON STREAMS...CREEKS
AND SOME SMALL RIVERS.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES AND PASSES OVER THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY
RANGE FROM A TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS.

A TREND TOWARDS DRIER WEATHER WILL OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...AND
CONTINUE UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...SNYDER/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA



000
FXUS61 KALY 031718
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
118 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING AND MOVE TO
THE COAST BY MORNING. IT MAY TRIGGER STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
LINGER OVER QUEBEC THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...BRINGING COOLER AIR
INTO OUR REGION...AND TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY NORTH OF I90
AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...

AS OF 930 AM EDT...MOST OF THE CIN IS MIXED OUT...A FINE LINE/PRE
FRONTAL TROF IS FM SLK-BGM AND APPEARS IT WILL BE THE FOCUS OF
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTN. AHEAD OF IT SKIES HAVE BEEN
SUNNY...TD ARE IN THE LOWER 60S AND TEMPS ARE IN THE 80S WITH A
FEW MORE HOURS OF DIURNAL HEATING TO GO. AT 500HPA THE FIRST
SHORT WV ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE LARGE QB/ONT CUT OFF IS
IN THE E GRTLKS AND MVNG SLOWLY E WITH THE BEST DYNAMICS N OR N OF
FCA.

MU CAPE VALUES ARE NOW IN THE VCNTY OF 1000-1500 J/KG...MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE ARND 6.5C. SCT TSTMS WILL FORM ALONG THIS LINE
DURING THE AFTN HRS...WHICH WILL BE COME STRONG AND SOME MAY BE
SEVERE.

THIS SCT-BKN LINE OF STORMS WILL PROGRESS IN BOWING SEGMENTS
ACROSS THE RGN DURING THE AFTN AND EVNG. SEE LATEST SPC DISC. PRE-
FRONTAL TROF WILL REACH SVT-RDG BY EVNG...AND DRIFT EAST AS
ACTIVITY DIM AND ATMOS STABLIZES. OVERNIGHT THIS BOUNDARY WILL
SHIFT EAST AS THE MAIN CDFNT MVES INTO THE E GRTLKS...AND THEN TO
COAST BY DAYBREAK.

WITH CYCLONIC 500HPA FLOW ACROSS THE RGN AND COOLING AT 500HPACLOUDS
WILL INCR N TWRD DAYBREAK. MINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR WRN NEW ENGLAND BY
DAYBREAK. THE SFC DEWPT BOUNDARY WILL STILL BE PROGRESSING EAST
ACROSS ERN NY. THE NAM IS ADVERTISING ALOT OF INSTABILITY FOR TUE
WITH A DEEPLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THE GFS HAS LESS AGAIN...BUT
THERE IS A SMALL AREA OF HIGH INSTABILITY FROM THE THE MASS PIKE
SOUTH AND EAST INTO NW CT. SPC DOES HAVE LITCHFIELD CTY CLIPPED BY
THE MARGINAL RISK. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE AROUND 6.5C/KM
WITH ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR SOME STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL /NO ENHANCED WORDING YET/...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST. LOW- LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING
DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE PM. DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS OFF THE
ERN CATSKILLS/ERN DACKS MAY ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO GET INTO THE MID
AND U80S IN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION. EXPECT M70S TO
L80S IN MOST OTHER LOCATIONS...EXCEPT OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN
GREENS WHERE SOME U60S TO L70S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE COLD ADVECTION
REGIME...AS H850 TEMPS LOWER TO +10C TO +16C FROM NW TO SE OVER
THE FCST AREA BY THE LATE PM. A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SUNSET.

TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL HEATING THE SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY. THE ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS MAY LINGER THE LONGEST OVER THE SRN DACKS. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60F WITH SOME U40S TO L50S
OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN GREENS. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE QUITE
COMFORTABLE.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE FCST AREA WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER S-CNTRL QUEBEC. IN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW ANOTHER PIECE OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY WILL SWING ACROSS UPSTATE
NY AND NEW ENGLAND. THE BEST CHC OF ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS DUE TO THE
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. H500 TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -15C TO -18C FROM ALY
NORTH AND WEST. THE H500 HEIGHTS ARE ABOUT 2-3 STD DEVS BELOW
NORMAL BASED ON THE LATEST GEFS FOR WED. H850 TEMPS WILL BE 1-2
STD DEVS BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS ON WED WILL BE IN THE M60S TO L70S
OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS...WITH A FEW 80F
READINGS NEAR KPOU. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR COOL NIGHT FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF AUG...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE U40S TO M50S OVER
THE FCST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.

GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT SHOULD STALL TO OUR
SOUTH LATE IN THE WEEK SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE EXACT
LOCATION IS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION AT THIS TIME. GUIDANCE IS ALSO IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE IN THE WEEK LEAVING THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
NORTHEAST UNDER A LONGWAVE TROUGH THOUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS ARE ON HOW THEY HANDLE SHORT WAVE ENERGY
MOVING THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AND ITS IMPACTS THE POSITION OF THE
STALLED BOUNDARY AND THE STRENGTHEN OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT IS
EXPECTED TO FORM AND MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY. GUIDANCE HAVE NOT
BEEN SHOWING ANY CONSISTENCY. AT THIS TIME...THE OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE GFS
KEEPS THE BOUNDARY...LOW AND PRECIPITATION SHIELD TO OUR SOUTH WHILE THE
ECMWF BRINGS A SOAKING RAINFALL TO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
TO MAINLY TO AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90.

HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER TO MAINTAIN
FORECAST CONSISTENCY AND HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-90 LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AS FOR THE WEEKEND...HAVE MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCES
POPS SINCE THE TIMING OF ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVES IN HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE
TAF SITES AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH
CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR WITH THE CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT HAVE NOT BEEN INCLUDE
IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. HAVE ADDRESSED THE THREAT OF THE STORMS WITH
A PROB30 GROUP INCLUDING THUNDERSTORMS. FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT AS THE CLOUD COVER DECREASES AND WINDS LIGHTEN UP.

AT KALB...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AND ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY.
AT THE OTHER TAF SITES...A SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND WILL DEVELOP
WHICH WILL BECOME GUSTY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY. A LIGHTER
SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE STORMS AS WE HEAD INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU NIGHT-FRI: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TODAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE COLD
FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING...BUT AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
ARRIVE FOR WEDNESDAY.

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 40 TO 60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...AND
INCREASE TO 75 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO
35 TO 55 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH
TODAY...AND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH TONIGHT. THE WINDS
WILL BE FORM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH ON TUESDAY WITH
THE FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS RISE UP TO AROUND 1.5
INCHES AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO
SOME MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS. ALSO
SOME SHARP WITHIN BANK RISES WOULD BE EXPECTED ON STREAMS...CREEKS
AND SOME SMALL RIVERS.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES AND PASSES OVER THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY
RANGE FROM A TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS.

A TREND TOWARDS DRIER WEATHER WILL OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...AND
CONTINUE UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...SNYDER/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA



000
FXUS61 KALY 031718
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
118 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING AND MOVE TO
THE COAST BY MORNING. IT MAY TRIGGER STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
LINGER OVER QUEBEC THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...BRINGING COOLER AIR
INTO OUR REGION...AND TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY NORTH OF I90
AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...

AS OF 930 AM EDT...MOST OF THE CIN IS MIXED OUT...A FINE LINE/PRE
FRONTAL TROF IS FM SLK-BGM AND APPEARS IT WILL BE THE FOCUS OF
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTN. AHEAD OF IT SKIES HAVE BEEN
SUNNY...TD ARE IN THE LOWER 60S AND TEMPS ARE IN THE 80S WITH A
FEW MORE HOURS OF DIURNAL HEATING TO GO. AT 500HPA THE FIRST
SHORT WV ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE LARGE QB/ONT CUT OFF IS
IN THE E GRTLKS AND MVNG SLOWLY E WITH THE BEST DYNAMICS N OR N OF
FCA.

MU CAPE VALUES ARE NOW IN THE VCNTY OF 1000-1500 J/KG...MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE ARND 6.5C. SCT TSTMS WILL FORM ALONG THIS LINE
DURING THE AFTN HRS...WHICH WILL BE COME STRONG AND SOME MAY BE
SEVERE.

THIS SCT-BKN LINE OF STORMS WILL PROGRESS IN BOWING SEGMENTS
ACROSS THE RGN DURING THE AFTN AND EVNG. SEE LATEST SPC DISC. PRE-
FRONTAL TROF WILL REACH SVT-RDG BY EVNG...AND DRIFT EAST AS
ACTIVITY DIM AND ATMOS STABLIZES. OVERNIGHT THIS BOUNDARY WILL
SHIFT EAST AS THE MAIN CDFNT MVES INTO THE E GRTLKS...AND THEN TO
COAST BY DAYBREAK.

WITH CYCLONIC 500HPA FLOW ACROSS THE RGN AND COOLING AT 500HPACLOUDS
WILL INCR N TWRD DAYBREAK. MINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR WRN NEW ENGLAND BY
DAYBREAK. THE SFC DEWPT BOUNDARY WILL STILL BE PROGRESSING EAST
ACROSS ERN NY. THE NAM IS ADVERTISING ALOT OF INSTABILITY FOR TUE
WITH A DEEPLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THE GFS HAS LESS AGAIN...BUT
THERE IS A SMALL AREA OF HIGH INSTABILITY FROM THE THE MASS PIKE
SOUTH AND EAST INTO NW CT. SPC DOES HAVE LITCHFIELD CTY CLIPPED BY
THE MARGINAL RISK. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE AROUND 6.5C/KM
WITH ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR SOME STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL /NO ENHANCED WORDING YET/...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST. LOW- LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING
DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE PM. DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS OFF THE
ERN CATSKILLS/ERN DACKS MAY ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO GET INTO THE MID
AND U80S IN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION. EXPECT M70S TO
L80S IN MOST OTHER LOCATIONS...EXCEPT OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN
GREENS WHERE SOME U60S TO L70S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE COLD ADVECTION
REGIME...AS H850 TEMPS LOWER TO +10C TO +16C FROM NW TO SE OVER
THE FCST AREA BY THE LATE PM. A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SUNSET.

TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL HEATING THE SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY. THE ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS MAY LINGER THE LONGEST OVER THE SRN DACKS. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60F WITH SOME U40S TO L50S
OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN GREENS. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE QUITE
COMFORTABLE.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE FCST AREA WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER S-CNTRL QUEBEC. IN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW ANOTHER PIECE OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY WILL SWING ACROSS UPSTATE
NY AND NEW ENGLAND. THE BEST CHC OF ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS DUE TO THE
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. H500 TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -15C TO -18C FROM ALY
NORTH AND WEST. THE H500 HEIGHTS ARE ABOUT 2-3 STD DEVS BELOW
NORMAL BASED ON THE LATEST GEFS FOR WED. H850 TEMPS WILL BE 1-2
STD DEVS BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS ON WED WILL BE IN THE M60S TO L70S
OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS...WITH A FEW 80F
READINGS NEAR KPOU. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR COOL NIGHT FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF AUG...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE U40S TO M50S OVER
THE FCST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.

GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT SHOULD STALL TO OUR
SOUTH LATE IN THE WEEK SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE EXACT
LOCATION IS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION AT THIS TIME. GUIDANCE IS ALSO IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE IN THE WEEK LEAVING THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
NORTHEAST UNDER A LONGWAVE TROUGH THOUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS ARE ON HOW THEY HANDLE SHORT WAVE ENERGY
MOVING THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AND ITS IMPACTS THE POSITION OF THE
STALLED BOUNDARY AND THE STRENGTHEN OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT IS
EXPECTED TO FORM AND MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY. GUIDANCE HAVE NOT
BEEN SHOWING ANY CONSISTENCY. AT THIS TIME...THE OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE GFS
KEEPS THE BOUNDARY...LOW AND PRECIPITATION SHIELD TO OUR SOUTH WHILE THE
ECMWF BRINGS A SOAKING RAINFALL TO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
TO MAINLY TO AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90.

HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER TO MAINTAIN
FORECAST CONSISTENCY AND HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-90 LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AS FOR THE WEEKEND...HAVE MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCES
POPS SINCE THE TIMING OF ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVES IN HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE
TAF SITES AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH
CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR WITH THE CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT HAVE NOT BEEN INCLUDE
IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. HAVE ADDRESSED THE THREAT OF THE STORMS WITH
A PROB30 GROUP INCLUDING THUNDERSTORMS. FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT AS THE CLOUD COVER DECREASES AND WINDS LIGHTEN UP.

AT KALB...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AND ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY.
AT THE OTHER TAF SITES...A SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND WILL DEVELOP
WHICH WILL BECOME GUSTY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY. A LIGHTER
SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE STORMS AS WE HEAD INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU NIGHT-FRI: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TODAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE COLD
FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING...BUT AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
ARRIVE FOR WEDNESDAY.

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 40 TO 60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...AND
INCREASE TO 75 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO
35 TO 55 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH
TODAY...AND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH TONIGHT. THE WINDS
WILL BE FORM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH ON TUESDAY WITH
THE FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS RISE UP TO AROUND 1.5
INCHES AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO
SOME MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS. ALSO
SOME SHARP WITHIN BANK RISES WOULD BE EXPECTED ON STREAMS...CREEKS
AND SOME SMALL RIVERS.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES AND PASSES OVER THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY
RANGE FROM A TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS.

A TREND TOWARDS DRIER WEATHER WILL OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...AND
CONTINUE UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...SNYDER/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA



000
FXUS61 KALY 031718
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
118 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING AND MOVE TO
THE COAST BY MORNING. IT MAY TRIGGER STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
LINGER OVER QUEBEC THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...BRINGING COOLER AIR
INTO OUR REGION...AND TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY NORTH OF I90
AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...

AS OF 930 AM EDT...MOST OF THE CIN IS MIXED OUT...A FINE LINE/PRE
FRONTAL TROF IS FM SLK-BGM AND APPEARS IT WILL BE THE FOCUS OF
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTN. AHEAD OF IT SKIES HAVE BEEN
SUNNY...TD ARE IN THE LOWER 60S AND TEMPS ARE IN THE 80S WITH A
FEW MORE HOURS OF DIURNAL HEATING TO GO. AT 500HPA THE FIRST
SHORT WV ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE LARGE QB/ONT CUT OFF IS
IN THE E GRTLKS AND MVNG SLOWLY E WITH THE BEST DYNAMICS N OR N OF
FCA.

MU CAPE VALUES ARE NOW IN THE VCNTY OF 1000-1500 J/KG...MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE ARND 6.5C. SCT TSTMS WILL FORM ALONG THIS LINE
DURING THE AFTN HRS...WHICH WILL BE COME STRONG AND SOME MAY BE
SEVERE.

THIS SCT-BKN LINE OF STORMS WILL PROGRESS IN BOWING SEGMENTS
ACROSS THE RGN DURING THE AFTN AND EVNG. SEE LATEST SPC DISC. PRE-
FRONTAL TROF WILL REACH SVT-RDG BY EVNG...AND DRIFT EAST AS
ACTIVITY DIM AND ATMOS STABLIZES. OVERNIGHT THIS BOUNDARY WILL
SHIFT EAST AS THE MAIN CDFNT MVES INTO THE E GRTLKS...AND THEN TO
COAST BY DAYBREAK.

WITH CYCLONIC 500HPA FLOW ACROSS THE RGN AND COOLING AT 500HPACLOUDS
WILL INCR N TWRD DAYBREAK. MINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR WRN NEW ENGLAND BY
DAYBREAK. THE SFC DEWPT BOUNDARY WILL STILL BE PROGRESSING EAST
ACROSS ERN NY. THE NAM IS ADVERTISING ALOT OF INSTABILITY FOR TUE
WITH A DEEPLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THE GFS HAS LESS AGAIN...BUT
THERE IS A SMALL AREA OF HIGH INSTABILITY FROM THE THE MASS PIKE
SOUTH AND EAST INTO NW CT. SPC DOES HAVE LITCHFIELD CTY CLIPPED BY
THE MARGINAL RISK. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE AROUND 6.5C/KM
WITH ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR SOME STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL /NO ENHANCED WORDING YET/...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST. LOW- LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING
DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE PM. DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS OFF THE
ERN CATSKILLS/ERN DACKS MAY ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO GET INTO THE MID
AND U80S IN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION. EXPECT M70S TO
L80S IN MOST OTHER LOCATIONS...EXCEPT OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN
GREENS WHERE SOME U60S TO L70S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE COLD ADVECTION
REGIME...AS H850 TEMPS LOWER TO +10C TO +16C FROM NW TO SE OVER
THE FCST AREA BY THE LATE PM. A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SUNSET.

TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL HEATING THE SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY. THE ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS MAY LINGER THE LONGEST OVER THE SRN DACKS. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60F WITH SOME U40S TO L50S
OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN GREENS. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE QUITE
COMFORTABLE.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE FCST AREA WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER S-CNTRL QUEBEC. IN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW ANOTHER PIECE OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY WILL SWING ACROSS UPSTATE
NY AND NEW ENGLAND. THE BEST CHC OF ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS DUE TO THE
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. H500 TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -15C TO -18C FROM ALY
NORTH AND WEST. THE H500 HEIGHTS ARE ABOUT 2-3 STD DEVS BELOW
NORMAL BASED ON THE LATEST GEFS FOR WED. H850 TEMPS WILL BE 1-2
STD DEVS BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS ON WED WILL BE IN THE M60S TO L70S
OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS...WITH A FEW 80F
READINGS NEAR KPOU. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR COOL NIGHT FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF AUG...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE U40S TO M50S OVER
THE FCST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.

GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT SHOULD STALL TO OUR
SOUTH LATE IN THE WEEK SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE EXACT
LOCATION IS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION AT THIS TIME. GUIDANCE IS ALSO IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE IN THE WEEK LEAVING THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
NORTHEAST UNDER A LONGWAVE TROUGH THOUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS ARE ON HOW THEY HANDLE SHORT WAVE ENERGY
MOVING THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AND ITS IMPACTS THE POSITION OF THE
STALLED BOUNDARY AND THE STRENGTHEN OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT IS
EXPECTED TO FORM AND MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY. GUIDANCE HAVE NOT
BEEN SHOWING ANY CONSISTENCY. AT THIS TIME...THE OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE GFS
KEEPS THE BOUNDARY...LOW AND PRECIPITATION SHIELD TO OUR SOUTH WHILE THE
ECMWF BRINGS A SOAKING RAINFALL TO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
TO MAINLY TO AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90.

HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER TO MAINTAIN
FORECAST CONSISTENCY AND HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-90 LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AS FOR THE WEEKEND...HAVE MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCES
POPS SINCE THE TIMING OF ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVES IN HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE
TAF SITES AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH
CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR WITH THE CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT HAVE NOT BEEN INCLUDE
IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. HAVE ADDRESSED THE THREAT OF THE STORMS WITH
A PROB30 GROUP INCLUDING THUNDERSTORMS. FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT AS THE CLOUD COVER DECREASES AND WINDS LIGHTEN UP.

AT KALB...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AND ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY.
AT THE OTHER TAF SITES...A SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND WILL DEVELOP
WHICH WILL BECOME GUSTY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY. A LIGHTER
SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE STORMS AS WE HEAD INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU NIGHT-FRI: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TODAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE COLD
FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING...BUT AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
ARRIVE FOR WEDNESDAY.

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 40 TO 60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...AND
INCREASE TO 75 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO
35 TO 55 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH
TODAY...AND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH TONIGHT. THE WINDS
WILL BE FORM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH ON TUESDAY WITH
THE FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS RISE UP TO AROUND 1.5
INCHES AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO
SOME MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS. ALSO
SOME SHARP WITHIN BANK RISES WOULD BE EXPECTED ON STREAMS...CREEKS
AND SOME SMALL RIVERS.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES AND PASSES OVER THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY
RANGE FROM A TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS.

A TREND TOWARDS DRIER WEATHER WILL OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...AND
CONTINUE UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...SNYDER/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA



000
FXUS61 KOKX 031717
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
117 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA LATE TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST ON TRACK THIS AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE NOW EAST OF THE
HUDSON BAY IN QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD...WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT MOVING TOWARDS THE
AREA THROUGH THE DAY. A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY IS EXPECTED
OVERALL...WITH SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATE IN THE DAY.

A FEW HI-RESOLUTION MODELS SHOWING AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS IN
NORTHERN NJ. SIDED WITH A GENERALLY DRIER AFTERNOON FORECAST OWING
TO SEASONABLY DRY AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND WARMING ALOFT
INDICATED ON RAP SOUNDINGS...ALSO EVIDENCED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
AS OF 17Z.

TEMPS ARE TOWARDS THE WARMER GFS MOS NUMBERS.

SEA BREEZE ENHANCED WITH THE AMBROSE JET EFFECT AND GUSTS TO NEAR
30 MPH LATE THIS AFTN OVER WESTERN LONG ISLAND. AS SUCH...THERE IS
A HIGH RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE OCEAN
BEACHES TODAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES. A RIP CURRENT STATEMENT
IS IN EFFECT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT SAGS INTO THE REGION BY TUESDAY MORNING AND THEN
BECOMES DIFFUSE. RATHER UNCERTAIN ON DETAILS FOR PCPN IN THIS
PERIOD. HAVE CONTINUED THE IDEA OF SCT CONVECTION INTO TUESDAY
MORNING.

TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER
90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DEEP CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
INTO EASTERN CANADA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY. MUCH
DRIER AIR MOVES IN ON WEDNESDAY WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 50S. SOME
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES IN
THE AFTERNOON...BUT FEEL AT THIS TIME THE AIR MASS WILL BE TOO DRY
FOR ANY SHOWERS. HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST DRY FOR WEDNESDAY.

BY THURSDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON A PIECE OF ENERGY
INTERACTING WITH THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THIS SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MAY THEN MOVE ALONG THE BASE OF THE TROUGH THROUGH THE AREA
LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE AREA AND
MAY IMPACT THE REGION. THE 18Z SUN AND 00Z MONDAY GFS ARE FLATTER
WITH THE WAVE AND THUS KEEP LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE AREA COMPARED
TO ITS PREVIOUS 12Z SUNDAY RUN...WHILE THE 00Z MONDAY ECMWF IS
CONSISTENT WITH ITS 12Z RUN FROM SUNDAY INDICATING A MORE AMPLIFIED
SHORTWAVE. THIS MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION WOULD BRING THE BOUNDARY AND
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE CLOSER TO THE REGION. THE 00Z MONDAY CMC IS
THE MOST AMPLIFIED AND BRINGS THE LOW OVER THE AREA FRIDAY. THE 00Z
GFS APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER AS THE 00Z GEFS ARE FURTHER NORTH WITH
THE LOW AND MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE SHORTWAVE. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE
LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC LIFT TO WORK WITH...AS THE REGION LOOKS TO LIE
IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET OVER NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WOULD BE A POSSIBILITY IF
THE MORE AMPLIFIED AND FURTHER NORTH SOLUTIONS COME TO FRUITION.
HAVE CONTINUED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST OF CHANCE POPS DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME FRAME.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE OFFSHORE LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO
THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY...AND THEN
AVERAGE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE REST OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE WAY TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

S/SW FLOW WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON. STRONG
SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED AT COASTAL TERMINALS. GUSTS INTO THE
LOW TO MID 20 KT RANGE EXPECTED...STRONGEST AT KJFK.
THERE IS A LOW PROB FOR SE SEABREEZE TO WORK INTO KEWR/KTEB.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDER LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AT
KSWF. ELSEWHERE...PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT
THIS TIME.

PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT...OUTSIDE OF THE NYC METRO
TERMINALS.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE OF GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE SEABREEZE. TIMING OF GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY +/- HOUR.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY +/- HOUR.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CHANCE OF SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT. WINDS MAY
BECOME SOUTHEAST FOR BRIEF PERIOD AFTER 20Z.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CHANCE OF SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT. WINDS MAY
BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FOR BRIEF PERIOD AFTER 20Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY BE OCCASIONAL THIS AFTERNOON.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS:  HIGH CONFIDENCE OF GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE SEABREEZE. TIMING OF GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY +/- HOUR.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUE THROUGH FRI...
.TUE...CHANCE OF TSTMS. COLD FROPA WITH S WINDS SHIFTING TO W.
.WED...VFR. W FLOW.
.THU-FRI...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS LATE TODAY...MOVING CLOSE TO
THE WATERS TONIGHT. WINDS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT INCREASE MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE LIGHTENING WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE FRONT.

OCEAN SEAS BUILD DUE TO THE INCREASE IN THESE WINDS. SCA
STARTING AT 4 PM LOCAL AND THROUGH TONIGHT. OCCASIONAL 25 KT
GUSTS POSSIBLE FOR NY HARBOR...WESTERN SOUTH SHORE BAYS AND
WESTERN LI SOUND LATE MONDAY AFT INTO MONDAY EVENING.

OCEAN SEAS WILL BE SUBSIDING TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT 5 FT SEAS MAY
LINGER ON THE EASTERN OCEAN UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY WITH SUB SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MAY PASS OVER THE WATERS FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK. OCCASIONAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL PRODUCT LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL...WHICH COULD LEAD TO MINOR POOR DRAINAGE NUISANCE FLOODING.

A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...A LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THIS
POTENTIAL EVENT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ075-
     080-081-178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/TONGUE
NEAR TERM...MD/TONGUE
SHORT TERM...TONGUE
LONG TERM...JP/DS
AVIATION...BC/PW
MARINE...DS/TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...DS/TONGUE




000
FXUS61 KOKX 031717
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
117 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA LATE TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST ON TRACK THIS AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE NOW EAST OF THE
HUDSON BAY IN QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD...WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT MOVING TOWARDS THE
AREA THROUGH THE DAY. A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY IS EXPECTED
OVERALL...WITH SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATE IN THE DAY.

A FEW HI-RESOLUTION MODELS SHOWING AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS IN
NORTHERN NJ. SIDED WITH A GENERALLY DRIER AFTERNOON FORECAST OWING
TO SEASONABLY DRY AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND WARMING ALOFT
INDICATED ON RAP SOUNDINGS...ALSO EVIDENCED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
AS OF 17Z.

TEMPS ARE TOWARDS THE WARMER GFS MOS NUMBERS.

SEA BREEZE ENHANCED WITH THE AMBROSE JET EFFECT AND GUSTS TO NEAR
30 MPH LATE THIS AFTN OVER WESTERN LONG ISLAND. AS SUCH...THERE IS
A HIGH RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE OCEAN
BEACHES TODAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES. A RIP CURRENT STATEMENT
IS IN EFFECT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT SAGS INTO THE REGION BY TUESDAY MORNING AND THEN
BECOMES DIFFUSE. RATHER UNCERTAIN ON DETAILS FOR PCPN IN THIS
PERIOD. HAVE CONTINUED THE IDEA OF SCT CONVECTION INTO TUESDAY
MORNING.

TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER
90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DEEP CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
INTO EASTERN CANADA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY. MUCH
DRIER AIR MOVES IN ON WEDNESDAY WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 50S. SOME
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES IN
THE AFTERNOON...BUT FEEL AT THIS TIME THE AIR MASS WILL BE TOO DRY
FOR ANY SHOWERS. HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST DRY FOR WEDNESDAY.

BY THURSDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON A PIECE OF ENERGY
INTERACTING WITH THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THIS SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MAY THEN MOVE ALONG THE BASE OF THE TROUGH THROUGH THE AREA
LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE AREA AND
MAY IMPACT THE REGION. THE 18Z SUN AND 00Z MONDAY GFS ARE FLATTER
WITH THE WAVE AND THUS KEEP LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE AREA COMPARED
TO ITS PREVIOUS 12Z SUNDAY RUN...WHILE THE 00Z MONDAY ECMWF IS
CONSISTENT WITH ITS 12Z RUN FROM SUNDAY INDICATING A MORE AMPLIFIED
SHORTWAVE. THIS MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION WOULD BRING THE BOUNDARY AND
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE CLOSER TO THE REGION. THE 00Z MONDAY CMC IS
THE MOST AMPLIFIED AND BRINGS THE LOW OVER THE AREA FRIDAY. THE 00Z
GFS APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER AS THE 00Z GEFS ARE FURTHER NORTH WITH
THE LOW AND MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE SHORTWAVE. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE
LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC LIFT TO WORK WITH...AS THE REGION LOOKS TO LIE
IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET OVER NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WOULD BE A POSSIBILITY IF
THE MORE AMPLIFIED AND FURTHER NORTH SOLUTIONS COME TO FRUITION.
HAVE CONTINUED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST OF CHANCE POPS DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME FRAME.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE OFFSHORE LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO
THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY...AND THEN
AVERAGE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE REST OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE WAY TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

S/SW FLOW WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON. STRONG
SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED AT COASTAL TERMINALS. GUSTS INTO THE
LOW TO MID 20 KT RANGE EXPECTED...STRONGEST AT KJFK.
THERE IS A LOW PROB FOR SE SEABREEZE TO WORK INTO KEWR/KTEB.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDER LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AT
KSWF. ELSEWHERE...PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT
THIS TIME.

PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT...OUTSIDE OF THE NYC METRO
TERMINALS.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE OF GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE SEABREEZE. TIMING OF GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY +/- HOUR.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY +/- HOUR.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CHANCE OF SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT. WINDS MAY
BECOME SOUTHEAST FOR BRIEF PERIOD AFTER 20Z.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CHANCE OF SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT. WINDS MAY
BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FOR BRIEF PERIOD AFTER 20Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY BE OCCASIONAL THIS AFTERNOON.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS:  HIGH CONFIDENCE OF GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE SEABREEZE. TIMING OF GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY +/- HOUR.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUE THROUGH FRI...
.TUE...CHANCE OF TSTMS. COLD FROPA WITH S WINDS SHIFTING TO W.
.WED...VFR. W FLOW.
.THU-FRI...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS LATE TODAY...MOVING CLOSE TO
THE WATERS TONIGHT. WINDS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT INCREASE MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE LIGHTENING WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE FRONT.

OCEAN SEAS BUILD DUE TO THE INCREASE IN THESE WINDS. SCA
STARTING AT 4 PM LOCAL AND THROUGH TONIGHT. OCCASIONAL 25 KT
GUSTS POSSIBLE FOR NY HARBOR...WESTERN SOUTH SHORE BAYS AND
WESTERN LI SOUND LATE MONDAY AFT INTO MONDAY EVENING.

OCEAN SEAS WILL BE SUBSIDING TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT 5 FT SEAS MAY
LINGER ON THE EASTERN OCEAN UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY WITH SUB SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MAY PASS OVER THE WATERS FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK. OCCASIONAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL PRODUCT LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL...WHICH COULD LEAD TO MINOR POOR DRAINAGE NUISANCE FLOODING.

A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...A LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THIS
POTENTIAL EVENT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ075-
     080-081-178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/TONGUE
NEAR TERM...MD/TONGUE
SHORT TERM...TONGUE
LONG TERM...JP/DS
AVIATION...BC/PW
MARINE...DS/TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...DS/TONGUE




000
FXUS61 KOKX 031717
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
117 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA LATE TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST ON TRACK THIS AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE NOW EAST OF THE
HUDSON BAY IN QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD...WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT MOVING TOWARDS THE
AREA THROUGH THE DAY. A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY IS EXPECTED
OVERALL...WITH SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATE IN THE DAY.

A FEW HI-RESOLUTION MODELS SHOWING AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS IN
NORTHERN NJ. SIDED WITH A GENERALLY DRIER AFTERNOON FORECAST OWING
TO SEASONABLY DRY AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND WARMING ALOFT
INDICATED ON RAP SOUNDINGS...ALSO EVIDENCED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
AS OF 17Z.

TEMPS ARE TOWARDS THE WARMER GFS MOS NUMBERS.

SEA BREEZE ENHANCED WITH THE AMBROSE JET EFFECT AND GUSTS TO NEAR
30 MPH LATE THIS AFTN OVER WESTERN LONG ISLAND. AS SUCH...THERE IS
A HIGH RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE OCEAN
BEACHES TODAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES. A RIP CURRENT STATEMENT
IS IN EFFECT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT SAGS INTO THE REGION BY TUESDAY MORNING AND THEN
BECOMES DIFFUSE. RATHER UNCERTAIN ON DETAILS FOR PCPN IN THIS
PERIOD. HAVE CONTINUED THE IDEA OF SCT CONVECTION INTO TUESDAY
MORNING.

TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER
90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DEEP CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
INTO EASTERN CANADA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY. MUCH
DRIER AIR MOVES IN ON WEDNESDAY WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 50S. SOME
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES IN
THE AFTERNOON...BUT FEEL AT THIS TIME THE AIR MASS WILL BE TOO DRY
FOR ANY SHOWERS. HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST DRY FOR WEDNESDAY.

BY THURSDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON A PIECE OF ENERGY
INTERACTING WITH THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THIS SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MAY THEN MOVE ALONG THE BASE OF THE TROUGH THROUGH THE AREA
LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE AREA AND
MAY IMPACT THE REGION. THE 18Z SUN AND 00Z MONDAY GFS ARE FLATTER
WITH THE WAVE AND THUS KEEP LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE AREA COMPARED
TO ITS PREVIOUS 12Z SUNDAY RUN...WHILE THE 00Z MONDAY ECMWF IS
CONSISTENT WITH ITS 12Z RUN FROM SUNDAY INDICATING A MORE AMPLIFIED
SHORTWAVE. THIS MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION WOULD BRING THE BOUNDARY AND
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE CLOSER TO THE REGION. THE 00Z MONDAY CMC IS
THE MOST AMPLIFIED AND BRINGS THE LOW OVER THE AREA FRIDAY. THE 00Z
GFS APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER AS THE 00Z GEFS ARE FURTHER NORTH WITH
THE LOW AND MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE SHORTWAVE. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE
LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC LIFT TO WORK WITH...AS THE REGION LOOKS TO LIE
IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET OVER NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WOULD BE A POSSIBILITY IF
THE MORE AMPLIFIED AND FURTHER NORTH SOLUTIONS COME TO FRUITION.
HAVE CONTINUED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST OF CHANCE POPS DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME FRAME.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE OFFSHORE LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO
THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY...AND THEN
AVERAGE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE REST OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE WAY TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

S/SW FLOW WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON. STRONG
SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED AT COASTAL TERMINALS. GUSTS INTO THE
LOW TO MID 20 KT RANGE EXPECTED...STRONGEST AT KJFK.
THERE IS A LOW PROB FOR SE SEABREEZE TO WORK INTO KEWR/KTEB.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDER LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AT
KSWF. ELSEWHERE...PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT
THIS TIME.

PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT...OUTSIDE OF THE NYC METRO
TERMINALS.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE OF GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE SEABREEZE. TIMING OF GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY +/- HOUR.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY +/- HOUR.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CHANCE OF SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT. WINDS MAY
BECOME SOUTHEAST FOR BRIEF PERIOD AFTER 20Z.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CHANCE OF SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT. WINDS MAY
BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FOR BRIEF PERIOD AFTER 20Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY BE OCCASIONAL THIS AFTERNOON.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS:  HIGH CONFIDENCE OF GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE SEABREEZE. TIMING OF GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY +/- HOUR.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUE THROUGH FRI...
.TUE...CHANCE OF TSTMS. COLD FROPA WITH S WINDS SHIFTING TO W.
.WED...VFR. W FLOW.
.THU-FRI...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS LATE TODAY...MOVING CLOSE TO
THE WATERS TONIGHT. WINDS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT INCREASE MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE LIGHTENING WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE FRONT.

OCEAN SEAS BUILD DUE TO THE INCREASE IN THESE WINDS. SCA
STARTING AT 4 PM LOCAL AND THROUGH TONIGHT. OCCASIONAL 25 KT
GUSTS POSSIBLE FOR NY HARBOR...WESTERN SOUTH SHORE BAYS AND
WESTERN LI SOUND LATE MONDAY AFT INTO MONDAY EVENING.

OCEAN SEAS WILL BE SUBSIDING TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT 5 FT SEAS MAY
LINGER ON THE EASTERN OCEAN UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY WITH SUB SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MAY PASS OVER THE WATERS FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK. OCCASIONAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL PRODUCT LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL...WHICH COULD LEAD TO MINOR POOR DRAINAGE NUISANCE FLOODING.

A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...A LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THIS
POTENTIAL EVENT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ075-
     080-081-178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/TONGUE
NEAR TERM...MD/TONGUE
SHORT TERM...TONGUE
LONG TERM...JP/DS
AVIATION...BC/PW
MARINE...DS/TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...DS/TONGUE




000
FXUS61 KOKX 031717
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
117 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA LATE TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST ON TRACK THIS AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE NOW EAST OF THE
HUDSON BAY IN QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD...WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT MOVING TOWARDS THE
AREA THROUGH THE DAY. A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY IS EXPECTED
OVERALL...WITH SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATE IN THE DAY.

A FEW HI-RESOLUTION MODELS SHOWING AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS IN
NORTHERN NJ. SIDED WITH A GENERALLY DRIER AFTERNOON FORECAST OWING
TO SEASONABLY DRY AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND WARMING ALOFT
INDICATED ON RAP SOUNDINGS...ALSO EVIDENCED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
AS OF 17Z.

TEMPS ARE TOWARDS THE WARMER GFS MOS NUMBERS.

SEA BREEZE ENHANCED WITH THE AMBROSE JET EFFECT AND GUSTS TO NEAR
30 MPH LATE THIS AFTN OVER WESTERN LONG ISLAND. AS SUCH...THERE IS
A HIGH RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE OCEAN
BEACHES TODAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES. A RIP CURRENT STATEMENT
IS IN EFFECT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT SAGS INTO THE REGION BY TUESDAY MORNING AND THEN
BECOMES DIFFUSE. RATHER UNCERTAIN ON DETAILS FOR PCPN IN THIS
PERIOD. HAVE CONTINUED THE IDEA OF SCT CONVECTION INTO TUESDAY
MORNING.

TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER
90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DEEP CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
INTO EASTERN CANADA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY. MUCH
DRIER AIR MOVES IN ON WEDNESDAY WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 50S. SOME
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES IN
THE AFTERNOON...BUT FEEL AT THIS TIME THE AIR MASS WILL BE TOO DRY
FOR ANY SHOWERS. HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST DRY FOR WEDNESDAY.

BY THURSDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON A PIECE OF ENERGY
INTERACTING WITH THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THIS SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MAY THEN MOVE ALONG THE BASE OF THE TROUGH THROUGH THE AREA
LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE AREA AND
MAY IMPACT THE REGION. THE 18Z SUN AND 00Z MONDAY GFS ARE FLATTER
WITH THE WAVE AND THUS KEEP LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE AREA COMPARED
TO ITS PREVIOUS 12Z SUNDAY RUN...WHILE THE 00Z MONDAY ECMWF IS
CONSISTENT WITH ITS 12Z RUN FROM SUNDAY INDICATING A MORE AMPLIFIED
SHORTWAVE. THIS MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION WOULD BRING THE BOUNDARY AND
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE CLOSER TO THE REGION. THE 00Z MONDAY CMC IS
THE MOST AMPLIFIED AND BRINGS THE LOW OVER THE AREA FRIDAY. THE 00Z
GFS APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER AS THE 00Z GEFS ARE FURTHER NORTH WITH
THE LOW AND MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE SHORTWAVE. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE
LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC LIFT TO WORK WITH...AS THE REGION LOOKS TO LIE
IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET OVER NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WOULD BE A POSSIBILITY IF
THE MORE AMPLIFIED AND FURTHER NORTH SOLUTIONS COME TO FRUITION.
HAVE CONTINUED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST OF CHANCE POPS DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME FRAME.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE OFFSHORE LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO
THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY...AND THEN
AVERAGE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE REST OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE WAY TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

S/SW FLOW WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON. STRONG
SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED AT COASTAL TERMINALS. GUSTS INTO THE
LOW TO MID 20 KT RANGE EXPECTED...STRONGEST AT KJFK.
THERE IS A LOW PROB FOR SE SEABREEZE TO WORK INTO KEWR/KTEB.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDER LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AT
KSWF. ELSEWHERE...PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT
THIS TIME.

PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT...OUTSIDE OF THE NYC METRO
TERMINALS.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE OF GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE SEABREEZE. TIMING OF GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY +/- HOUR.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY +/- HOUR.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CHANCE OF SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT. WINDS MAY
BECOME SOUTHEAST FOR BRIEF PERIOD AFTER 20Z.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CHANCE OF SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT. WINDS MAY
BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FOR BRIEF PERIOD AFTER 20Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY BE OCCASIONAL THIS AFTERNOON.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS:  HIGH CONFIDENCE OF GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE SEABREEZE. TIMING OF GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY +/- HOUR.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUE THROUGH FRI...
.TUE...CHANCE OF TSTMS. COLD FROPA WITH S WINDS SHIFTING TO W.
.WED...VFR. W FLOW.
.THU-FRI...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS LATE TODAY...MOVING CLOSE TO
THE WATERS TONIGHT. WINDS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT INCREASE MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE LIGHTENING WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE FRONT.

OCEAN SEAS BUILD DUE TO THE INCREASE IN THESE WINDS. SCA
STARTING AT 4 PM LOCAL AND THROUGH TONIGHT. OCCASIONAL 25 KT
GUSTS POSSIBLE FOR NY HARBOR...WESTERN SOUTH SHORE BAYS AND
WESTERN LI SOUND LATE MONDAY AFT INTO MONDAY EVENING.

OCEAN SEAS WILL BE SUBSIDING TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT 5 FT SEAS MAY
LINGER ON THE EASTERN OCEAN UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY WITH SUB SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MAY PASS OVER THE WATERS FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK. OCCASIONAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL PRODUCT LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL...WHICH COULD LEAD TO MINOR POOR DRAINAGE NUISANCE FLOODING.

A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...A LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THIS
POTENTIAL EVENT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ075-
     080-081-178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/TONGUE
NEAR TERM...MD/TONGUE
SHORT TERM...TONGUE
LONG TERM...JP/DS
AVIATION...BC/PW
MARINE...DS/TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...DS/TONGUE




000
FXUS61 KOKX 031717
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
117 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA LATE TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST ON TRACK THIS AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE NOW EAST OF THE
HUDSON BAY IN QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD...WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT MOVING TOWARDS THE
AREA THROUGH THE DAY. A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY IS EXPECTED
OVERALL...WITH SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATE IN THE DAY.

A FEW HI-RESOLUTION MODELS SHOWING AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS IN
NORTHERN NJ. SIDED WITH A GENERALLY DRIER AFTERNOON FORECAST OWING
TO SEASONABLY DRY AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND WARMING ALOFT
INDICATED ON RAP SOUNDINGS...ALSO EVIDENCED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
AS OF 17Z.

TEMPS ARE TOWARDS THE WARMER GFS MOS NUMBERS.

SEA BREEZE ENHANCED WITH THE AMBROSE JET EFFECT AND GUSTS TO NEAR
30 MPH LATE THIS AFTN OVER WESTERN LONG ISLAND. AS SUCH...THERE IS
A HIGH RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE OCEAN
BEACHES TODAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES. A RIP CURRENT STATEMENT
IS IN EFFECT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT SAGS INTO THE REGION BY TUESDAY MORNING AND THEN
BECOMES DIFFUSE. RATHER UNCERTAIN ON DETAILS FOR PCPN IN THIS
PERIOD. HAVE CONTINUED THE IDEA OF SCT CONVECTION INTO TUESDAY
MORNING.

TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER
90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DEEP CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
INTO EASTERN CANADA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY. MUCH
DRIER AIR MOVES IN ON WEDNESDAY WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 50S. SOME
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES IN
THE AFTERNOON...BUT FEEL AT THIS TIME THE AIR MASS WILL BE TOO DRY
FOR ANY SHOWERS. HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST DRY FOR WEDNESDAY.

BY THURSDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON A PIECE OF ENERGY
INTERACTING WITH THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THIS SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MAY THEN MOVE ALONG THE BASE OF THE TROUGH THROUGH THE AREA
LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE AREA AND
MAY IMPACT THE REGION. THE 18Z SUN AND 00Z MONDAY GFS ARE FLATTER
WITH THE WAVE AND THUS KEEP LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE AREA COMPARED
TO ITS PREVIOUS 12Z SUNDAY RUN...WHILE THE 00Z MONDAY ECMWF IS
CONSISTENT WITH ITS 12Z RUN FROM SUNDAY INDICATING A MORE AMPLIFIED
SHORTWAVE. THIS MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION WOULD BRING THE BOUNDARY AND
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE CLOSER TO THE REGION. THE 00Z MONDAY CMC IS
THE MOST AMPLIFIED AND BRINGS THE LOW OVER THE AREA FRIDAY. THE 00Z
GFS APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER AS THE 00Z GEFS ARE FURTHER NORTH WITH
THE LOW AND MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE SHORTWAVE. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE
LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC LIFT TO WORK WITH...AS THE REGION LOOKS TO LIE
IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET OVER NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WOULD BE A POSSIBILITY IF
THE MORE AMPLIFIED AND FURTHER NORTH SOLUTIONS COME TO FRUITION.
HAVE CONTINUED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST OF CHANCE POPS DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME FRAME.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE OFFSHORE LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO
THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY...AND THEN
AVERAGE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE REST OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE WAY TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

S/SW FLOW WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON. STRONG
SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED AT COASTAL TERMINALS. GUSTS INTO THE
LOW TO MID 20 KT RANGE EXPECTED...STRONGEST AT KJFK.
THERE IS A LOW PROB FOR SE SEABREEZE TO WORK INTO KEWR/KTEB.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDER LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AT
KSWF. ELSEWHERE...PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT
THIS TIME.

PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT...OUTSIDE OF THE NYC METRO
TERMINALS.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE OF GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE SEABREEZE. TIMING OF GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY +/- HOUR.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY +/- HOUR.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CHANCE OF SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT. WINDS MAY
BECOME SOUTHEAST FOR BRIEF PERIOD AFTER 20Z.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CHANCE OF SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT. WINDS MAY
BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FOR BRIEF PERIOD AFTER 20Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY BE OCCASIONAL THIS AFTERNOON.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS:  HIGH CONFIDENCE OF GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE SEABREEZE. TIMING OF GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY +/- HOUR.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUE THROUGH FRI...
.TUE...CHANCE OF TSTMS. COLD FROPA WITH S WINDS SHIFTING TO W.
.WED...VFR. W FLOW.
.THU-FRI...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS LATE TODAY...MOVING CLOSE TO
THE WATERS TONIGHT. WINDS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT INCREASE MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE LIGHTENING WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE FRONT.

OCEAN SEAS BUILD DUE TO THE INCREASE IN THESE WINDS. SCA
STARTING AT 4 PM LOCAL AND THROUGH TONIGHT. OCCASIONAL 25 KT
GUSTS POSSIBLE FOR NY HARBOR...WESTERN SOUTH SHORE BAYS AND
WESTERN LI SOUND LATE MONDAY AFT INTO MONDAY EVENING.

OCEAN SEAS WILL BE SUBSIDING TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT 5 FT SEAS MAY
LINGER ON THE EASTERN OCEAN UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY WITH SUB SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MAY PASS OVER THE WATERS FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK. OCCASIONAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL PRODUCT LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL...WHICH COULD LEAD TO MINOR POOR DRAINAGE NUISANCE FLOODING.

A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...A LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THIS
POTENTIAL EVENT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ075-
     080-081-178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/TONGUE
NEAR TERM...MD/TONGUE
SHORT TERM...TONGUE
LONG TERM...JP/DS
AVIATION...BC/PW
MARINE...DS/TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...DS/TONGUE



000
FXUS61 KOKX 031427
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1027 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA LATE TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST ON TRACK THIS MORNING. LOW PRESSURE NOW EAST OF THE
HUDSON BAY IN QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD...WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT MOVING TOWARDS THE
AREA THROUGH THE DAY. A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY IS EXPECTED
OVERALL...WITH SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATE IN THE DAY.

DESPITE TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 90S...INSTABILITY IS WILL GENERALLY
BE WEAK WITH NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE PWAT VALUES AND DEW
POINT TEMPS AROUND 60. BULK SHEAR IS AROUND 30 KTS...BUT STILL
LOW. NCAR ENSEMBLE IS DRY AS ARE LOCAL STONY BROOK WRF RUNS AND
THE NCEP DETERMINISTIC RUNS. ONLY EXCEPTION TO NO CONVECTION IS
THE SPC WRF WHICH GENERATES A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER AROUND 3 PM LOCAL
IN NORTH JERSEY THAT TRACKS ENE ACROSS THE CITY. THE OPERATIONAL
HIRES RUN HAS SOME IDEA ABOUT THIS AS WELL...BUT LESS INTENSE AND
LESS COVERAGE.

BASED ON THEMODYNAMIC ANALYSIS...WILL STICK WITH A DRY FCST
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

TEMPS ARE TOWARDS THE WARMER GFS MOS NUMBERS.

SEA BREEZE ENHANCED WITH THE AMBROSE JET EFFECT AND GUSTS TO NEAR
30 MPH LATE THIS AFTN OVER WESTERN LONG ISLAND. AS SUCH...THERE IS
A HIGH RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE OCEAN
BEACHES TODAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES. A RIP CURRENT STATEMENT
IS IN EFFECT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT SAGS INTO THE REGION BY TUESDAY MORNING AND THEN
BECOMES DIFFUSE. RATHER UNCERTAIN ON DETAILS FOR PCPN IN THIS
PERIOD. HAVE CONTINUED THE IDEA OF SCT CONVECTION INTO TUESDAY
MORNING.

TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER
90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DEEP CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
INTO EASTERN CANADA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY. MUCH
DRIER AIR MOVES IN ON WEDNESDAY WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 50S. SOME
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES IN
THE AFTERNOON...BUT FEEL AT THIS TIME THE AIR MASS WILL BE TOO DRY
FOR ANY SHOWERS. HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST DRY FOR WEDNESDAY.

BY THURSDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON A PIECE OF ENERGY
INTERACTING WITH THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THIS SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MAY THEN MOVE ALONG THE BASE OF THE TROUGH THROUGH THE AREA
LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE AREA AND
MAY IMPACT THE REGION. THE 18Z SUN AND 00Z MONDAY GFS ARE FLATTER
WITH THE WAVE AND THUS KEEP LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE AREA COMPARED
TO ITS PREVIOUS 12Z SUNDAY RUN...WHILE THE 00Z MONDAY ECMWF IS
CONSISTENT WITH ITS 12Z RUN FROM SUNDAY INDICATING A MORE AMPLIFIED
SHORTWAVE. THIS MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION WOULD BRING THE BOUNDARY AND
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE CLOSER TO THE REGION. THE 00Z MONDAY CMC IS
THE MOST AMPLIFIED AND BRINGS THE LOW OVER THE AREA FRIDAY. THE 00Z
GFS APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER AS THE 00Z GEFS ARE FURTHER NORTH WITH
THE LOW AND MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE SHORTWAVE. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE
LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC LIFT TO WORK WITH...AS THE REGION LOOKS TO LIE
IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET OVER NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WOULD BE A POSSIBILITY IF
THE MORE AMPLIFIED AND FURTHER NORTH SOLUTIONS COME TO FRUITION.
HAVE CONTINUED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST OF CHANCE POPS DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME FRAME.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE OFFSHORE LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO
THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY...AND THEN
AVERAGE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE REST OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE WAY TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

S/SW FLOW WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON. STRONG
SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED AT COASTAL TERMINALS. GUSTS INTO THE
LOW TO MID 20 KT RANGE EXPECTED...STRONGEST AT KJFK.
THERE IS A LOW PROB FOR SE SEABREEZE TO WORK INTO KEWR/KTEB.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDER LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AT
KSWF. ELSEWHERE...PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT
THIS TIME.

PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT...OUTSIDE OF THE NYC METRO
TERMINALS.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE OF GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE SEABREEZE. TIMING OF GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY +/- HOUR.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY +/- HOUR.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CHANCE OF SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT. WINDS MAY
BECOME SOUTHEAST FOR BRIEF PERIOD AFTER 20Z.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CHANCE OF SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT. WINDS MAY
BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FOR BRIEF PERIOD AFTER 20Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY BE OCCASIONAL THIS AFTERNOON.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS:  HIGH CONFIDENCE OF GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE SEABREEZE. TIMING OF GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY +/- HOUR.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUE THROUGH FRI...
.TUE...CHANCE OF TSTMS. COLD FROPA WITH S WINDS SHIFTING TO W.
.WED...VFR. W FLOW.
.THU-FRI...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS LATE TODAY...MOVING CLOSE TO
THE WATERS TONIGHT. WINDS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT INCREASE MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE LIGHTENING WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE FRONT.

OCEAN SEAS BUILD DUE TO THE INCREASE IN THESE WINDS. SCA
STARTING AT 4 PM LOCAL AND THROUGH TONIGHT. OCCASIONAL 25 KT
GUSTS POSSIBLE FOR NY HARBOR...WESTERN SOUTH SHORE BAYS AND
WESTERN LI SOUND LATE MONDAY AFT INTO MONDAY EVENING.

OCEAN SEAS WILL BE SUBSIDING TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT 5 FT SEAS MAY
LINGER ON THE EASTERN OCEAN UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY WITH SUB SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MAY PASS OVER THE WATERS FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK. OCCASIONAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL PRODUCT LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL...WHICH COULD LEAD TO MINOR POOR DRAINAGE NUISANCE FLOODING.

A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...A LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THIS
POTENTIAL EVENT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM EDT
     THIS EVENING FOR NYZ075-080-081-178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/TONGUE
NEAR TERM...MD/TONGUE
SHORT TERM...TONGUE
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...BC/PW
MARINE...DS/TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...DS/TONGUE




000
FXUS61 KOKX 031427
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1027 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA LATE TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST ON TRACK THIS MORNING. LOW PRESSURE NOW EAST OF THE
HUDSON BAY IN QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD...WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT MOVING TOWARDS THE
AREA THROUGH THE DAY. A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY IS EXPECTED
OVERALL...WITH SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATE IN THE DAY.

DESPITE TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 90S...INSTABILITY IS WILL GENERALLY
BE WEAK WITH NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE PWAT VALUES AND DEW
POINT TEMPS AROUND 60. BULK SHEAR IS AROUND 30 KTS...BUT STILL
LOW. NCAR ENSEMBLE IS DRY AS ARE LOCAL STONY BROOK WRF RUNS AND
THE NCEP DETERMINISTIC RUNS. ONLY EXCEPTION TO NO CONVECTION IS
THE SPC WRF WHICH GENERATES A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER AROUND 3 PM LOCAL
IN NORTH JERSEY THAT TRACKS ENE ACROSS THE CITY. THE OPERATIONAL
HIRES RUN HAS SOME IDEA ABOUT THIS AS WELL...BUT LESS INTENSE AND
LESS COVERAGE.

BASED ON THEMODYNAMIC ANALYSIS...WILL STICK WITH A DRY FCST
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

TEMPS ARE TOWARDS THE WARMER GFS MOS NUMBERS.

SEA BREEZE ENHANCED WITH THE AMBROSE JET EFFECT AND GUSTS TO NEAR
30 MPH LATE THIS AFTN OVER WESTERN LONG ISLAND. AS SUCH...THERE IS
A HIGH RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE OCEAN
BEACHES TODAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES. A RIP CURRENT STATEMENT
IS IN EFFECT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT SAGS INTO THE REGION BY TUESDAY MORNING AND THEN
BECOMES DIFFUSE. RATHER UNCERTAIN ON DETAILS FOR PCPN IN THIS
PERIOD. HAVE CONTINUED THE IDEA OF SCT CONVECTION INTO TUESDAY
MORNING.

TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER
90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DEEP CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
INTO EASTERN CANADA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY. MUCH
DRIER AIR MOVES IN ON WEDNESDAY WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 50S. SOME
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES IN
THE AFTERNOON...BUT FEEL AT THIS TIME THE AIR MASS WILL BE TOO DRY
FOR ANY SHOWERS. HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST DRY FOR WEDNESDAY.

BY THURSDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON A PIECE OF ENERGY
INTERACTING WITH THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THIS SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MAY THEN MOVE ALONG THE BASE OF THE TROUGH THROUGH THE AREA
LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE AREA AND
MAY IMPACT THE REGION. THE 18Z SUN AND 00Z MONDAY GFS ARE FLATTER
WITH THE WAVE AND THUS KEEP LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE AREA COMPARED
TO ITS PREVIOUS 12Z SUNDAY RUN...WHILE THE 00Z MONDAY ECMWF IS
CONSISTENT WITH ITS 12Z RUN FROM SUNDAY INDICATING A MORE AMPLIFIED
SHORTWAVE. THIS MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION WOULD BRING THE BOUNDARY AND
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE CLOSER TO THE REGION. THE 00Z MONDAY CMC IS
THE MOST AMPLIFIED AND BRINGS THE LOW OVER THE AREA FRIDAY. THE 00Z
GFS APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER AS THE 00Z GEFS ARE FURTHER NORTH WITH
THE LOW AND MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE SHORTWAVE. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE
LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC LIFT TO WORK WITH...AS THE REGION LOOKS TO LIE
IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET OVER NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WOULD BE A POSSIBILITY IF
THE MORE AMPLIFIED AND FURTHER NORTH SOLUTIONS COME TO FRUITION.
HAVE CONTINUED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST OF CHANCE POPS DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME FRAME.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE OFFSHORE LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO
THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY...AND THEN
AVERAGE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE REST OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE WAY TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

S/SW FLOW WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON. STRONG
SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED AT COASTAL TERMINALS. GUSTS INTO THE
LOW TO MID 20 KT RANGE EXPECTED...STRONGEST AT KJFK.
THERE IS A LOW PROB FOR SE SEABREEZE TO WORK INTO KEWR/KTEB.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDER LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AT
KSWF. ELSEWHERE...PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT
THIS TIME.

PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT...OUTSIDE OF THE NYC METRO
TERMINALS.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE OF GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE SEABREEZE. TIMING OF GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY +/- HOUR.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY +/- HOUR.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CHANCE OF SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT. WINDS MAY
BECOME SOUTHEAST FOR BRIEF PERIOD AFTER 20Z.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CHANCE OF SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT. WINDS MAY
BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FOR BRIEF PERIOD AFTER 20Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY BE OCCASIONAL THIS AFTERNOON.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS:  HIGH CONFIDENCE OF GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE SEABREEZE. TIMING OF GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY +/- HOUR.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUE THROUGH FRI...
.TUE...CHANCE OF TSTMS. COLD FROPA WITH S WINDS SHIFTING TO W.
.WED...VFR. W FLOW.
.THU-FRI...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS LATE TODAY...MOVING CLOSE TO
THE WATERS TONIGHT. WINDS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT INCREASE MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE LIGHTENING WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE FRONT.

OCEAN SEAS BUILD DUE TO THE INCREASE IN THESE WINDS. SCA
STARTING AT 4 PM LOCAL AND THROUGH TONIGHT. OCCASIONAL 25 KT
GUSTS POSSIBLE FOR NY HARBOR...WESTERN SOUTH SHORE BAYS AND
WESTERN LI SOUND LATE MONDAY AFT INTO MONDAY EVENING.

OCEAN SEAS WILL BE SUBSIDING TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT 5 FT SEAS MAY
LINGER ON THE EASTERN OCEAN UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY WITH SUB SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MAY PASS OVER THE WATERS FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK. OCCASIONAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL PRODUCT LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL...WHICH COULD LEAD TO MINOR POOR DRAINAGE NUISANCE FLOODING.

A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...A LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THIS
POTENTIAL EVENT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM EDT
     THIS EVENING FOR NYZ075-080-081-178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/TONGUE
NEAR TERM...MD/TONGUE
SHORT TERM...TONGUE
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...BC/PW
MARINE...DS/TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...DS/TONGUE




000
FXUS61 KOKX 031427
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1027 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA LATE TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST ON TRACK THIS MORNING. LOW PRESSURE NOW EAST OF THE
HUDSON BAY IN QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD...WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT MOVING TOWARDS THE
AREA THROUGH THE DAY. A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY IS EXPECTED
OVERALL...WITH SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATE IN THE DAY.

DESPITE TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 90S...INSTABILITY IS WILL GENERALLY
BE WEAK WITH NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE PWAT VALUES AND DEW
POINT TEMPS AROUND 60. BULK SHEAR IS AROUND 30 KTS...BUT STILL
LOW. NCAR ENSEMBLE IS DRY AS ARE LOCAL STONY BROOK WRF RUNS AND
THE NCEP DETERMINISTIC RUNS. ONLY EXCEPTION TO NO CONVECTION IS
THE SPC WRF WHICH GENERATES A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER AROUND 3 PM LOCAL
IN NORTH JERSEY THAT TRACKS ENE ACROSS THE CITY. THE OPERATIONAL
HIRES RUN HAS SOME IDEA ABOUT THIS AS WELL...BUT LESS INTENSE AND
LESS COVERAGE.

BASED ON THEMODYNAMIC ANALYSIS...WILL STICK WITH A DRY FCST
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

TEMPS ARE TOWARDS THE WARMER GFS MOS NUMBERS.

SEA BREEZE ENHANCED WITH THE AMBROSE JET EFFECT AND GUSTS TO NEAR
30 MPH LATE THIS AFTN OVER WESTERN LONG ISLAND. AS SUCH...THERE IS
A HIGH RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE OCEAN
BEACHES TODAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES. A RIP CURRENT STATEMENT
IS IN EFFECT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT SAGS INTO THE REGION BY TUESDAY MORNING AND THEN
BECOMES DIFFUSE. RATHER UNCERTAIN ON DETAILS FOR PCPN IN THIS
PERIOD. HAVE CONTINUED THE IDEA OF SCT CONVECTION INTO TUESDAY
MORNING.

TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER
90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DEEP CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
INTO EASTERN CANADA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY. MUCH
DRIER AIR MOVES IN ON WEDNESDAY WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 50S. SOME
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES IN
THE AFTERNOON...BUT FEEL AT THIS TIME THE AIR MASS WILL BE TOO DRY
FOR ANY SHOWERS. HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST DRY FOR WEDNESDAY.

BY THURSDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON A PIECE OF ENERGY
INTERACTING WITH THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THIS SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MAY THEN MOVE ALONG THE BASE OF THE TROUGH THROUGH THE AREA
LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE AREA AND
MAY IMPACT THE REGION. THE 18Z SUN AND 00Z MONDAY GFS ARE FLATTER
WITH THE WAVE AND THUS KEEP LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE AREA COMPARED
TO ITS PREVIOUS 12Z SUNDAY RUN...WHILE THE 00Z MONDAY ECMWF IS
CONSISTENT WITH ITS 12Z RUN FROM SUNDAY INDICATING A MORE AMPLIFIED
SHORTWAVE. THIS MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION WOULD BRING THE BOUNDARY AND
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE CLOSER TO THE REGION. THE 00Z MONDAY CMC IS
THE MOST AMPLIFIED AND BRINGS THE LOW OVER THE AREA FRIDAY. THE 00Z
GFS APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER AS THE 00Z GEFS ARE FURTHER NORTH WITH
THE LOW AND MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE SHORTWAVE. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE
LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC LIFT TO WORK WITH...AS THE REGION LOOKS TO LIE
IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET OVER NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WOULD BE A POSSIBILITY IF
THE MORE AMPLIFIED AND FURTHER NORTH SOLUTIONS COME TO FRUITION.
HAVE CONTINUED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST OF CHANCE POPS DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME FRAME.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE OFFSHORE LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO
THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY...AND THEN
AVERAGE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE REST OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE WAY TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

S/SW FLOW WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON. STRONG
SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED AT COASTAL TERMINALS. GUSTS INTO THE
LOW TO MID 20 KT RANGE EXPECTED...STRONGEST AT KJFK.
THERE IS A LOW PROB FOR SE SEABREEZE TO WORK INTO KEWR/KTEB.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDER LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AT
KSWF. ELSEWHERE...PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT
THIS TIME.

PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT...OUTSIDE OF THE NYC METRO
TERMINALS.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE OF GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE SEABREEZE. TIMING OF GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY +/- HOUR.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY +/- HOUR.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CHANCE OF SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT. WINDS MAY
BECOME SOUTHEAST FOR BRIEF PERIOD AFTER 20Z.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CHANCE OF SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT. WINDS MAY
BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FOR BRIEF PERIOD AFTER 20Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY BE OCCASIONAL THIS AFTERNOON.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS:  HIGH CONFIDENCE OF GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE SEABREEZE. TIMING OF GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY +/- HOUR.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUE THROUGH FRI...
.TUE...CHANCE OF TSTMS. COLD FROPA WITH S WINDS SHIFTING TO W.
.WED...VFR. W FLOW.
.THU-FRI...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS LATE TODAY...MOVING CLOSE TO
THE WATERS TONIGHT. WINDS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT INCREASE MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE LIGHTENING WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE FRONT.

OCEAN SEAS BUILD DUE TO THE INCREASE IN THESE WINDS. SCA
STARTING AT 4 PM LOCAL AND THROUGH TONIGHT. OCCASIONAL 25 KT
GUSTS POSSIBLE FOR NY HARBOR...WESTERN SOUTH SHORE BAYS AND
WESTERN LI SOUND LATE MONDAY AFT INTO MONDAY EVENING.

OCEAN SEAS WILL BE SUBSIDING TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT 5 FT SEAS MAY
LINGER ON THE EASTERN OCEAN UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY WITH SUB SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MAY PASS OVER THE WATERS FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK. OCCASIONAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL PRODUCT LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL...WHICH COULD LEAD TO MINOR POOR DRAINAGE NUISANCE FLOODING.

A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...A LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THIS
POTENTIAL EVENT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM EDT
     THIS EVENING FOR NYZ075-080-081-178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/TONGUE
NEAR TERM...MD/TONGUE
SHORT TERM...TONGUE
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...BC/PW
MARINE...DS/TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...DS/TONGUE




000
FXUS61 KOKX 031427
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1027 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA LATE TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST ON TRACK THIS MORNING. LOW PRESSURE NOW EAST OF THE
HUDSON BAY IN QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD...WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT MOVING TOWARDS THE
AREA THROUGH THE DAY. A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY IS EXPECTED
OVERALL...WITH SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATE IN THE DAY.

DESPITE TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 90S...INSTABILITY IS WILL GENERALLY
BE WEAK WITH NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE PWAT VALUES AND DEW
POINT TEMPS AROUND 60. BULK SHEAR IS AROUND 30 KTS...BUT STILL
LOW. NCAR ENSEMBLE IS DRY AS ARE LOCAL STONY BROOK WRF RUNS AND
THE NCEP DETERMINISTIC RUNS. ONLY EXCEPTION TO NO CONVECTION IS
THE SPC WRF WHICH GENERATES A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER AROUND 3 PM LOCAL
IN NORTH JERSEY THAT TRACKS ENE ACROSS THE CITY. THE OPERATIONAL
HIRES RUN HAS SOME IDEA ABOUT THIS AS WELL...BUT LESS INTENSE AND
LESS COVERAGE.

BASED ON THEMODYNAMIC ANALYSIS...WILL STICK WITH A DRY FCST
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

TEMPS ARE TOWARDS THE WARMER GFS MOS NUMBERS.

SEA BREEZE ENHANCED WITH THE AMBROSE JET EFFECT AND GUSTS TO NEAR
30 MPH LATE THIS AFTN OVER WESTERN LONG ISLAND. AS SUCH...THERE IS
A HIGH RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE OCEAN
BEACHES TODAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES. A RIP CURRENT STATEMENT
IS IN EFFECT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT SAGS INTO THE REGION BY TUESDAY MORNING AND THEN
BECOMES DIFFUSE. RATHER UNCERTAIN ON DETAILS FOR PCPN IN THIS
PERIOD. HAVE CONTINUED THE IDEA OF SCT CONVECTION INTO TUESDAY
MORNING.

TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER
90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DEEP CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
INTO EASTERN CANADA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY. MUCH
DRIER AIR MOVES IN ON WEDNESDAY WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 50S. SOME
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES IN
THE AFTERNOON...BUT FEEL AT THIS TIME THE AIR MASS WILL BE TOO DRY
FOR ANY SHOWERS. HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST DRY FOR WEDNESDAY.

BY THURSDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON A PIECE OF ENERGY
INTERACTING WITH THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THIS SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MAY THEN MOVE ALONG THE BASE OF THE TROUGH THROUGH THE AREA
LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE AREA AND
MAY IMPACT THE REGION. THE 18Z SUN AND 00Z MONDAY GFS ARE FLATTER
WITH THE WAVE AND THUS KEEP LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE AREA COMPARED
TO ITS PREVIOUS 12Z SUNDAY RUN...WHILE THE 00Z MONDAY ECMWF IS
CONSISTENT WITH ITS 12Z RUN FROM SUNDAY INDICATING A MORE AMPLIFIED
SHORTWAVE. THIS MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION WOULD BRING THE BOUNDARY AND
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE CLOSER TO THE REGION. THE 00Z MONDAY CMC IS
THE MOST AMPLIFIED AND BRINGS THE LOW OVER THE AREA FRIDAY. THE 00Z
GFS APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER AS THE 00Z GEFS ARE FURTHER NORTH WITH
THE LOW AND MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE SHORTWAVE. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE
LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC LIFT TO WORK WITH...AS THE REGION LOOKS TO LIE
IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET OVER NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WOULD BE A POSSIBILITY IF
THE MORE AMPLIFIED AND FURTHER NORTH SOLUTIONS COME TO FRUITION.
HAVE CONTINUED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST OF CHANCE POPS DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME FRAME.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE OFFSHORE LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO
THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY...AND THEN
AVERAGE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE REST OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE WAY TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

S/SW FLOW WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON. STRONG
SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED AT COASTAL TERMINALS. GUSTS INTO THE
LOW TO MID 20 KT RANGE EXPECTED...STRONGEST AT KJFK.
THERE IS A LOW PROB FOR SE SEABREEZE TO WORK INTO KEWR/KTEB.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDER LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AT
KSWF. ELSEWHERE...PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT
THIS TIME.

PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT...OUTSIDE OF THE NYC METRO
TERMINALS.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE OF GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE SEABREEZE. TIMING OF GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY +/- HOUR.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY +/- HOUR.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CHANCE OF SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT. WINDS MAY
BECOME SOUTHEAST FOR BRIEF PERIOD AFTER 20Z.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CHANCE OF SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT. WINDS MAY
BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FOR BRIEF PERIOD AFTER 20Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY BE OCCASIONAL THIS AFTERNOON.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS:  HIGH CONFIDENCE OF GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE SEABREEZE. TIMING OF GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY +/- HOUR.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUE THROUGH FRI...
.TUE...CHANCE OF TSTMS. COLD FROPA WITH S WINDS SHIFTING TO W.
.WED...VFR. W FLOW.
.THU-FRI...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS LATE TODAY...MOVING CLOSE TO
THE WATERS TONIGHT. WINDS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT INCREASE MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE LIGHTENING WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE FRONT.

OCEAN SEAS BUILD DUE TO THE INCREASE IN THESE WINDS. SCA
STARTING AT 4 PM LOCAL AND THROUGH TONIGHT. OCCASIONAL 25 KT
GUSTS POSSIBLE FOR NY HARBOR...WESTERN SOUTH SHORE BAYS AND
WESTERN LI SOUND LATE MONDAY AFT INTO MONDAY EVENING.

OCEAN SEAS WILL BE SUBSIDING TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT 5 FT SEAS MAY
LINGER ON THE EASTERN OCEAN UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY WITH SUB SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MAY PASS OVER THE WATERS FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK. OCCASIONAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL PRODUCT LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL...WHICH COULD LEAD TO MINOR POOR DRAINAGE NUISANCE FLOODING.

A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...A LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THIS
POTENTIAL EVENT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM EDT
     THIS EVENING FOR NYZ075-080-081-178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/TONGUE
NEAR TERM...MD/TONGUE
SHORT TERM...TONGUE
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...BC/PW
MARINE...DS/TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...DS/TONGUE




000
FXUS61 KOKX 031427
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1027 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA LATE TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST ON TRACK THIS MORNING. LOW PRESSURE NOW EAST OF THE
HUDSON BAY IN QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD...WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT MOVING TOWARDS THE
AREA THROUGH THE DAY. A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY IS EXPECTED
OVERALL...WITH SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATE IN THE DAY.

DESPITE TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 90S...INSTABILITY IS WILL GENERALLY
BE WEAK WITH NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE PWAT VALUES AND DEW
POINT TEMPS AROUND 60. BULK SHEAR IS AROUND 30 KTS...BUT STILL
LOW. NCAR ENSEMBLE IS DRY AS ARE LOCAL STONY BROOK WRF RUNS AND
THE NCEP DETERMINISTIC RUNS. ONLY EXCEPTION TO NO CONVECTION IS
THE SPC WRF WHICH GENERATES A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER AROUND 3 PM LOCAL
IN NORTH JERSEY THAT TRACKS ENE ACROSS THE CITY. THE OPERATIONAL
HIRES RUN HAS SOME IDEA ABOUT THIS AS WELL...BUT LESS INTENSE AND
LESS COVERAGE.

BASED ON THEMODYNAMIC ANALYSIS...WILL STICK WITH A DRY FCST
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

TEMPS ARE TOWARDS THE WARMER GFS MOS NUMBERS.

SEA BREEZE ENHANCED WITH THE AMBROSE JET EFFECT AND GUSTS TO NEAR
30 MPH LATE THIS AFTN OVER WESTERN LONG ISLAND. AS SUCH...THERE IS
A HIGH RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE OCEAN
BEACHES TODAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES. A RIP CURRENT STATEMENT
IS IN EFFECT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT SAGS INTO THE REGION BY TUESDAY MORNING AND THEN
BECOMES DIFFUSE. RATHER UNCERTAIN ON DETAILS FOR PCPN IN THIS
PERIOD. HAVE CONTINUED THE IDEA OF SCT CONVECTION INTO TUESDAY
MORNING.

TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER
90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DEEP CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
INTO EASTERN CANADA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY. MUCH
DRIER AIR MOVES IN ON WEDNESDAY WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 50S. SOME
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES IN
THE AFTERNOON...BUT FEEL AT THIS TIME THE AIR MASS WILL BE TOO DRY
FOR ANY SHOWERS. HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST DRY FOR WEDNESDAY.

BY THURSDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON A PIECE OF ENERGY
INTERACTING WITH THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THIS SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MAY THEN MOVE ALONG THE BASE OF THE TROUGH THROUGH THE AREA
LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE AREA AND
MAY IMPACT THE REGION. THE 18Z SUN AND 00Z MONDAY GFS ARE FLATTER
WITH THE WAVE AND THUS KEEP LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE AREA COMPARED
TO ITS PREVIOUS 12Z SUNDAY RUN...WHILE THE 00Z MONDAY ECMWF IS
CONSISTENT WITH ITS 12Z RUN FROM SUNDAY INDICATING A MORE AMPLIFIED
SHORTWAVE. THIS MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION WOULD BRING THE BOUNDARY AND
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE CLOSER TO THE REGION. THE 00Z MONDAY CMC IS
THE MOST AMPLIFIED AND BRINGS THE LOW OVER THE AREA FRIDAY. THE 00Z
GFS APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER AS THE 00Z GEFS ARE FURTHER NORTH WITH
THE LOW AND MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE SHORTWAVE. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE
LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC LIFT TO WORK WITH...AS THE REGION LOOKS TO LIE
IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET OVER NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WOULD BE A POSSIBILITY IF
THE MORE AMPLIFIED AND FURTHER NORTH SOLUTIONS COME TO FRUITION.
HAVE CONTINUED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST OF CHANCE POPS DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME FRAME.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE OFFSHORE LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO
THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY...AND THEN
AVERAGE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE REST OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE WAY TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

S/SW FLOW WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON. STRONG
SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED AT COASTAL TERMINALS. GUSTS INTO THE
LOW TO MID 20 KT RANGE EXPECTED...STRONGEST AT KJFK.
THERE IS A LOW PROB FOR SE SEABREEZE TO WORK INTO KEWR/KTEB.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDER LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AT
KSWF. ELSEWHERE...PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT
THIS TIME.

PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT...OUTSIDE OF THE NYC METRO
TERMINALS.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE OF GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE SEABREEZE. TIMING OF GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY +/- HOUR.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY +/- HOUR.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CHANCE OF SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT. WINDS MAY
BECOME SOUTHEAST FOR BRIEF PERIOD AFTER 20Z.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CHANCE OF SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT. WINDS MAY
BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FOR BRIEF PERIOD AFTER 20Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY BE OCCASIONAL THIS AFTERNOON.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS:  HIGH CONFIDENCE OF GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE SEABREEZE. TIMING OF GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY +/- HOUR.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUE THROUGH FRI...
.TUE...CHANCE OF TSTMS. COLD FROPA WITH S WINDS SHIFTING TO W.
.WED...VFR. W FLOW.
.THU-FRI...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS LATE TODAY...MOVING CLOSE TO
THE WATERS TONIGHT. WINDS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT INCREASE MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE LIGHTENING WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE FRONT.

OCEAN SEAS BUILD DUE TO THE INCREASE IN THESE WINDS. SCA
STARTING AT 4 PM LOCAL AND THROUGH TONIGHT. OCCASIONAL 25 KT
GUSTS POSSIBLE FOR NY HARBOR...WESTERN SOUTH SHORE BAYS AND
WESTERN LI SOUND LATE MONDAY AFT INTO MONDAY EVENING.

OCEAN SEAS WILL BE SUBSIDING TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT 5 FT SEAS MAY
LINGER ON THE EASTERN OCEAN UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY WITH SUB SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MAY PASS OVER THE WATERS FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK. OCCASIONAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL PRODUCT LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL...WHICH COULD LEAD TO MINOR POOR DRAINAGE NUISANCE FLOODING.

A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...A LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THIS
POTENTIAL EVENT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM EDT
     THIS EVENING FOR NYZ075-080-081-178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/TONGUE
NEAR TERM...MD/TONGUE
SHORT TERM...TONGUE
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...BC/PW
MARINE...DS/TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...DS/TONGUE




000
FXUS61 KOKX 031427
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1027 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA LATE TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST ON TRACK THIS MORNING. LOW PRESSURE NOW EAST OF THE
HUDSON BAY IN QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD...WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT MOVING TOWARDS THE
AREA THROUGH THE DAY. A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY IS EXPECTED
OVERALL...WITH SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATE IN THE DAY.

DESPITE TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 90S...INSTABILITY IS WILL GENERALLY
BE WEAK WITH NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE PWAT VALUES AND DEW
POINT TEMPS AROUND 60. BULK SHEAR IS AROUND 30 KTS...BUT STILL
LOW. NCAR ENSEMBLE IS DRY AS ARE LOCAL STONY BROOK WRF RUNS AND
THE NCEP DETERMINISTIC RUNS. ONLY EXCEPTION TO NO CONVECTION IS
THE SPC WRF WHICH GENERATES A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER AROUND 3 PM LOCAL
IN NORTH JERSEY THAT TRACKS ENE ACROSS THE CITY. THE OPERATIONAL
HIRES RUN HAS SOME IDEA ABOUT THIS AS WELL...BUT LESS INTENSE AND
LESS COVERAGE.

BASED ON THEMODYNAMIC ANALYSIS...WILL STICK WITH A DRY FCST
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

TEMPS ARE TOWARDS THE WARMER GFS MOS NUMBERS.

SEA BREEZE ENHANCED WITH THE AMBROSE JET EFFECT AND GUSTS TO NEAR
30 MPH LATE THIS AFTN OVER WESTERN LONG ISLAND. AS SUCH...THERE IS
A HIGH RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE OCEAN
BEACHES TODAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES. A RIP CURRENT STATEMENT
IS IN EFFECT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT SAGS INTO THE REGION BY TUESDAY MORNING AND THEN
BECOMES DIFFUSE. RATHER UNCERTAIN ON DETAILS FOR PCPN IN THIS
PERIOD. HAVE CONTINUED THE IDEA OF SCT CONVECTION INTO TUESDAY
MORNING.

TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER
90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DEEP CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
INTO EASTERN CANADA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY. MUCH
DRIER AIR MOVES IN ON WEDNESDAY WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 50S. SOME
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES IN
THE AFTERNOON...BUT FEEL AT THIS TIME THE AIR MASS WILL BE TOO DRY
FOR ANY SHOWERS. HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST DRY FOR WEDNESDAY.

BY THURSDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON A PIECE OF ENERGY
INTERACTING WITH THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THIS SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MAY THEN MOVE ALONG THE BASE OF THE TROUGH THROUGH THE AREA
LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE AREA AND
MAY IMPACT THE REGION. THE 18Z SUN AND 00Z MONDAY GFS ARE FLATTER
WITH THE WAVE AND THUS KEEP LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE AREA COMPARED
TO ITS PREVIOUS 12Z SUNDAY RUN...WHILE THE 00Z MONDAY ECMWF IS
CONSISTENT WITH ITS 12Z RUN FROM SUNDAY INDICATING A MORE AMPLIFIED
SHORTWAVE. THIS MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION WOULD BRING THE BOUNDARY AND
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE CLOSER TO THE REGION. THE 00Z MONDAY CMC IS
THE MOST AMPLIFIED AND BRINGS THE LOW OVER THE AREA FRIDAY. THE 00Z
GFS APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER AS THE 00Z GEFS ARE FURTHER NORTH WITH
THE LOW AND MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE SHORTWAVE. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE
LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC LIFT TO WORK WITH...AS THE REGION LOOKS TO LIE
IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET OVER NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WOULD BE A POSSIBILITY IF
THE MORE AMPLIFIED AND FURTHER NORTH SOLUTIONS COME TO FRUITION.
HAVE CONTINUED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST OF CHANCE POPS DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME FRAME.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE OFFSHORE LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO
THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY...AND THEN
AVERAGE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE REST OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE WAY TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

S/SW FLOW WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON. STRONG
SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED AT COASTAL TERMINALS. GUSTS INTO THE
LOW TO MID 20 KT RANGE EXPECTED...STRONGEST AT KJFK.
THERE IS A LOW PROB FOR SE SEABREEZE TO WORK INTO KEWR/KTEB.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDER LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AT
KSWF. ELSEWHERE...PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT
THIS TIME.

PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT...OUTSIDE OF THE NYC METRO
TERMINALS.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE OF GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE SEABREEZE. TIMING OF GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY +/- HOUR.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY +/- HOUR.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CHANCE OF SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT. WINDS MAY
BECOME SOUTHEAST FOR BRIEF PERIOD AFTER 20Z.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CHANCE OF SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT. WINDS MAY
BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FOR BRIEF PERIOD AFTER 20Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY BE OCCASIONAL THIS AFTERNOON.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS:  HIGH CONFIDENCE OF GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE SEABREEZE. TIMING OF GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY +/- HOUR.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUE THROUGH FRI...
.TUE...CHANCE OF TSTMS. COLD FROPA WITH S WINDS SHIFTING TO W.
.WED...VFR. W FLOW.
.THU-FRI...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS LATE TODAY...MOVING CLOSE TO
THE WATERS TONIGHT. WINDS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT INCREASE MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE LIGHTENING WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE FRONT.

OCEAN SEAS BUILD DUE TO THE INCREASE IN THESE WINDS. SCA
STARTING AT 4 PM LOCAL AND THROUGH TONIGHT. OCCASIONAL 25 KT
GUSTS POSSIBLE FOR NY HARBOR...WESTERN SOUTH SHORE BAYS AND
WESTERN LI SOUND LATE MONDAY AFT INTO MONDAY EVENING.

OCEAN SEAS WILL BE SUBSIDING TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT 5 FT SEAS MAY
LINGER ON THE EASTERN OCEAN UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY WITH SUB SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MAY PASS OVER THE WATERS FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK. OCCASIONAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL PRODUCT LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL...WHICH COULD LEAD TO MINOR POOR DRAINAGE NUISANCE FLOODING.

A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...A LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THIS
POTENTIAL EVENT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM EDT
     THIS EVENING FOR NYZ075-080-081-178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/TONGUE
NEAR TERM...MD/TONGUE
SHORT TERM...TONGUE
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...BC/PW
MARINE...DS/TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...DS/TONGUE




000
FXUS61 KOKX 031427
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1027 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA LATE TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST ON TRACK THIS MORNING. LOW PRESSURE NOW EAST OF THE
HUDSON BAY IN QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD...WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT MOVING TOWARDS THE
AREA THROUGH THE DAY. A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY IS EXPECTED
OVERALL...WITH SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATE IN THE DAY.

DESPITE TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 90S...INSTABILITY IS WILL GENERALLY
BE WEAK WITH NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE PWAT VALUES AND DEW
POINT TEMPS AROUND 60. BULK SHEAR IS AROUND 30 KTS...BUT STILL
LOW. NCAR ENSEMBLE IS DRY AS ARE LOCAL STONY BROOK WRF RUNS AND
THE NCEP DETERMINISTIC RUNS. ONLY EXCEPTION TO NO CONVECTION IS
THE SPC WRF WHICH GENERATES A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER AROUND 3 PM LOCAL
IN NORTH JERSEY THAT TRACKS ENE ACROSS THE CITY. THE OPERATIONAL
HIRES RUN HAS SOME IDEA ABOUT THIS AS WELL...BUT LESS INTENSE AND
LESS COVERAGE.

BASED ON THEMODYNAMIC ANALYSIS...WILL STICK WITH A DRY FCST
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

TEMPS ARE TOWARDS THE WARMER GFS MOS NUMBERS.

SEA BREEZE ENHANCED WITH THE AMBROSE JET EFFECT AND GUSTS TO NEAR
30 MPH LATE THIS AFTN OVER WESTERN LONG ISLAND. AS SUCH...THERE IS
A HIGH RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE OCEAN
BEACHES TODAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES. A RIP CURRENT STATEMENT
IS IN EFFECT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT SAGS INTO THE REGION BY TUESDAY MORNING AND THEN
BECOMES DIFFUSE. RATHER UNCERTAIN ON DETAILS FOR PCPN IN THIS
PERIOD. HAVE CONTINUED THE IDEA OF SCT CONVECTION INTO TUESDAY
MORNING.

TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER
90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DEEP CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
INTO EASTERN CANADA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY. MUCH
DRIER AIR MOVES IN ON WEDNESDAY WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 50S. SOME
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES IN
THE AFTERNOON...BUT FEEL AT THIS TIME THE AIR MASS WILL BE TOO DRY
FOR ANY SHOWERS. HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST DRY FOR WEDNESDAY.

BY THURSDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON A PIECE OF ENERGY
INTERACTING WITH THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THIS SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MAY THEN MOVE ALONG THE BASE OF THE TROUGH THROUGH THE AREA
LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE AREA AND
MAY IMPACT THE REGION. THE 18Z SUN AND 00Z MONDAY GFS ARE FLATTER
WITH THE WAVE AND THUS KEEP LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE AREA COMPARED
TO ITS PREVIOUS 12Z SUNDAY RUN...WHILE THE 00Z MONDAY ECMWF IS
CONSISTENT WITH ITS 12Z RUN FROM SUNDAY INDICATING A MORE AMPLIFIED
SHORTWAVE. THIS MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION WOULD BRING THE BOUNDARY AND
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE CLOSER TO THE REGION. THE 00Z MONDAY CMC IS
THE MOST AMPLIFIED AND BRINGS THE LOW OVER THE AREA FRIDAY. THE 00Z
GFS APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER AS THE 00Z GEFS ARE FURTHER NORTH WITH
THE LOW AND MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE SHORTWAVE. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE
LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC LIFT TO WORK WITH...AS THE REGION LOOKS TO LIE
IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET OVER NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WOULD BE A POSSIBILITY IF
THE MORE AMPLIFIED AND FURTHER NORTH SOLUTIONS COME TO FRUITION.
HAVE CONTINUED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST OF CHANCE POPS DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME FRAME.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE OFFSHORE LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO
THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY...AND THEN
AVERAGE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE REST OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE WAY TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

S/SW FLOW WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON. STRONG
SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED AT COASTAL TERMINALS. GUSTS INTO THE
LOW TO MID 20 KT RANGE EXPECTED...STRONGEST AT KJFK.
THERE IS A LOW PROB FOR SE SEABREEZE TO WORK INTO KEWR/KTEB.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDER LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AT
KSWF. ELSEWHERE...PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT
THIS TIME.

PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT...OUTSIDE OF THE NYC METRO
TERMINALS.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE OF GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE SEABREEZE. TIMING OF GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY +/- HOUR.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY +/- HOUR.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CHANCE OF SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT. WINDS MAY
BECOME SOUTHEAST FOR BRIEF PERIOD AFTER 20Z.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CHANCE OF SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT. WINDS MAY
BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FOR BRIEF PERIOD AFTER 20Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY BE OCCASIONAL THIS AFTERNOON.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS:  HIGH CONFIDENCE OF GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE SEABREEZE. TIMING OF GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY +/- HOUR.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUE THROUGH FRI...
.TUE...CHANCE OF TSTMS. COLD FROPA WITH S WINDS SHIFTING TO W.
.WED...VFR. W FLOW.
.THU-FRI...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS LATE TODAY...MOVING CLOSE TO
THE WATERS TONIGHT. WINDS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT INCREASE MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE LIGHTENING WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE FRONT.

OCEAN SEAS BUILD DUE TO THE INCREASE IN THESE WINDS. SCA
STARTING AT 4 PM LOCAL AND THROUGH TONIGHT. OCCASIONAL 25 KT
GUSTS POSSIBLE FOR NY HARBOR...WESTERN SOUTH SHORE BAYS AND
WESTERN LI SOUND LATE MONDAY AFT INTO MONDAY EVENING.

OCEAN SEAS WILL BE SUBSIDING TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT 5 FT SEAS MAY
LINGER ON THE EASTERN OCEAN UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY WITH SUB SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MAY PASS OVER THE WATERS FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK. OCCASIONAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL PRODUCT LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL...WHICH COULD LEAD TO MINOR POOR DRAINAGE NUISANCE FLOODING.

A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...A LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THIS
POTENTIAL EVENT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM EDT
     THIS EVENING FOR NYZ075-080-081-178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/TONGUE
NEAR TERM...MD/TONGUE
SHORT TERM...TONGUE
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...BC/PW
MARINE...DS/TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...DS/TONGUE




000
FXUS61 KOKX 031427
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1027 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA LATE TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST ON TRACK THIS MORNING. LOW PRESSURE NOW EAST OF THE
HUDSON BAY IN QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD...WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT MOVING TOWARDS THE
AREA THROUGH THE DAY. A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY IS EXPECTED
OVERALL...WITH SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATE IN THE DAY.

DESPITE TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 90S...INSTABILITY IS WILL GENERALLY
BE WEAK WITH NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE PWAT VALUES AND DEW
POINT TEMPS AROUND 60. BULK SHEAR IS AROUND 30 KTS...BUT STILL
LOW. NCAR ENSEMBLE IS DRY AS ARE LOCAL STONY BROOK WRF RUNS AND
THE NCEP DETERMINISTIC RUNS. ONLY EXCEPTION TO NO CONVECTION IS
THE SPC WRF WHICH GENERATES A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER AROUND 3 PM LOCAL
IN NORTH JERSEY THAT TRACKS ENE ACROSS THE CITY. THE OPERATIONAL
HIRES RUN HAS SOME IDEA ABOUT THIS AS WELL...BUT LESS INTENSE AND
LESS COVERAGE.

BASED ON THEMODYNAMIC ANALYSIS...WILL STICK WITH A DRY FCST
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

TEMPS ARE TOWARDS THE WARMER GFS MOS NUMBERS.

SEA BREEZE ENHANCED WITH THE AMBROSE JET EFFECT AND GUSTS TO NEAR
30 MPH LATE THIS AFTN OVER WESTERN LONG ISLAND. AS SUCH...THERE IS
A HIGH RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE OCEAN
BEACHES TODAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES. A RIP CURRENT STATEMENT
IS IN EFFECT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT SAGS INTO THE REGION BY TUESDAY MORNING AND THEN
BECOMES DIFFUSE. RATHER UNCERTAIN ON DETAILS FOR PCPN IN THIS
PERIOD. HAVE CONTINUED THE IDEA OF SCT CONVECTION INTO TUESDAY
MORNING.

TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER
90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DEEP CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
INTO EASTERN CANADA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY. MUCH
DRIER AIR MOVES IN ON WEDNESDAY WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 50S. SOME
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES IN
THE AFTERNOON...BUT FEEL AT THIS TIME THE AIR MASS WILL BE TOO DRY
FOR ANY SHOWERS. HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST DRY FOR WEDNESDAY.

BY THURSDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON A PIECE OF ENERGY
INTERACTING WITH THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THIS SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MAY THEN MOVE ALONG THE BASE OF THE TROUGH THROUGH THE AREA
LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE AREA AND
MAY IMPACT THE REGION. THE 18Z SUN AND 00Z MONDAY GFS ARE FLATTER
WITH THE WAVE AND THUS KEEP LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE AREA COMPARED
TO ITS PREVIOUS 12Z SUNDAY RUN...WHILE THE 00Z MONDAY ECMWF IS
CONSISTENT WITH ITS 12Z RUN FROM SUNDAY INDICATING A MORE AMPLIFIED
SHORTWAVE. THIS MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION WOULD BRING THE BOUNDARY AND
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE CLOSER TO THE REGION. THE 00Z MONDAY CMC IS
THE MOST AMPLIFIED AND BRINGS THE LOW OVER THE AREA FRIDAY. THE 00Z
GFS APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER AS THE 00Z GEFS ARE FURTHER NORTH WITH
THE LOW AND MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE SHORTWAVE. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE
LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC LIFT TO WORK WITH...AS THE REGION LOOKS TO LIE
IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET OVER NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WOULD BE A POSSIBILITY IF
THE MORE AMPLIFIED AND FURTHER NORTH SOLUTIONS COME TO FRUITION.
HAVE CONTINUED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST OF CHANCE POPS DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME FRAME.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE OFFSHORE LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO
THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY...AND THEN
AVERAGE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE REST OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE WAY TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

S/SW FLOW WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON. STRONG
SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED AT COASTAL TERMINALS. GUSTS INTO THE
LOW TO MID 20 KT RANGE EXPECTED...STRONGEST AT KJFK.
THERE IS A LOW PROB FOR SE SEABREEZE TO WORK INTO KEWR/KTEB.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDER LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AT
KSWF. ELSEWHERE...PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT
THIS TIME.

PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT...OUTSIDE OF THE NYC METRO
TERMINALS.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE OF GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE SEABREEZE. TIMING OF GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY +/- HOUR.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY +/- HOUR.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CHANCE OF SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT. WINDS MAY
BECOME SOUTHEAST FOR BRIEF PERIOD AFTER 20Z.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CHANCE OF SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT. WINDS MAY
BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FOR BRIEF PERIOD AFTER 20Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY BE OCCASIONAL THIS AFTERNOON.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS:  HIGH CONFIDENCE OF GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE SEABREEZE. TIMING OF GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY +/- HOUR.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUE THROUGH FRI...
.TUE...CHANCE OF TSTMS. COLD FROPA WITH S WINDS SHIFTING TO W.
.WED...VFR. W FLOW.
.THU-FRI...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS LATE TODAY...MOVING CLOSE TO
THE WATERS TONIGHT. WINDS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT INCREASE MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE LIGHTENING WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE FRONT.

OCEAN SEAS BUILD DUE TO THE INCREASE IN THESE WINDS. SCA
STARTING AT 4 PM LOCAL AND THROUGH TONIGHT. OCCASIONAL 25 KT
GUSTS POSSIBLE FOR NY HARBOR...WESTERN SOUTH SHORE BAYS AND
WESTERN LI SOUND LATE MONDAY AFT INTO MONDAY EVENING.

OCEAN SEAS WILL BE SUBSIDING TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT 5 FT SEAS MAY
LINGER ON THE EASTERN OCEAN UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY WITH SUB SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MAY PASS OVER THE WATERS FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK. OCCASIONAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL PRODUCT LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL...WHICH COULD LEAD TO MINOR POOR DRAINAGE NUISANCE FLOODING.

A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...A LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THIS
POTENTIAL EVENT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM EDT
     THIS EVENING FOR NYZ075-080-081-178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/TONGUE
NEAR TERM...MD/TONGUE
SHORT TERM...TONGUE
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...BC/PW
MARINE...DS/TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...DS/TONGUE




000
FXUS61 KBOX 031354
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
954 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

DRY WEATHER PREVAILS MUCH OF TODAY THEN THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS TUESDAY MORNING. DRY...
WARM AND LESS HUMID WEATHER ARRIVES WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUES INTO
THURSDAY. A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE TIMING OF POTENTIAL
WET WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

10 AM UPDATE...

SCATTERED SHOWERS SOME OF WHICH EVOLVING INTO THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
ERUPTED SE OF NEW ENGLAND OVER THE WATERS. BENEATH FAVORABLE MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALONG A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL GRADIENT OF HIGHER
THETA-E AIR...CONVERGENCE IS LENDING TO DEVELOPMENT. BUT ACTIVITY
IS STAYING LOW AND NOT BECOMING ROBUST DUE TO THE ABSENCE OF DEEP
LAYER FORCING. ONLY INSTABILITY AND CONVERGENCE OF MOISTURE ARE
AIDING IN THE PROCESS WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF BULK SHEAR VALUES
OF AROUND 25 KTS. COLLOCATED UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK AND ATTENDANT
VENTING AIDING AS WELL.

FEEL THE ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AND THUS HAVE
INCREASED THE RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE SE WATERS. UNCERTAIN AS TO
PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE CAPE/ISLANDS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY
AND AS TO WHETHER WE CAN GENERATE SOME UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT VIA A
COLLOCATED AFOREMENTIONED H3 JET STREAK. AGAIN...FORCING APPEARS
TO BE CONVERGENT RELATED SO WITH ANY LATER ACTIVITY FEEL IT WILL
REMAIN SUB-SEVERE.

OTHERWISE A WARM AND HUMID DAY ESPECIALLY FOR SE NEW ENGLAND AS
TEMPERATURES TOP OUT INTO THE UPPER-80S TO LOW-90S WITH DEWPOINTS
AROUND THE MID-60S. DRIER N/W WITH UPPER-50 TO LOW-60 DEWPOINTS. A
MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS UNDER BREEZY SW-WINDS GUSTING 20-25 MPH.

AGREE WITH THE PRIOR FORECAST TEAM THAT LITTLE HEIGHT FALLS ARE
ANTICIPATED TODAY BENEATH MID-LEVEL DRY AIR PER 12Z SOUNDINGS.
RIDGE SHOULD HOLD IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION KEEPING OUR AREA DRY.
THUS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY N AND W BUT IT IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THE REMNANTS AS WELL AS THE CONVECTIVE
ENVIRONMENT OF BETTER INSTABILITY AND FORCING CAN DRIFT INTO NW MA
TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD INTO EVENING WITH THE MEAN WIND.
CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...

*** POSSIBLE STRONG TO SEVERE T-STORMS LATER TONIGHT INTO TUE ***

TONIGHT...

MORE POTENT TRAILING SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND FROM THE WEST. THIS IS QUITE EVIDENT IN WIND FIELDS ALOFT
WHERE 500 MB SPEEDS APPROACH 50 KTS! THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH COOLS H5
TEMPS TO -11C/-12C. THIS COMBINED WITH SURFACE DEW PTS INCREASING
INTO THE U60S AND L70S PROVIDES MUCAPES GREATER THAN 2000J/KG AND
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 6.5 AND 7.0C/KM BY 12Z TUE ACROSS RI
AND EASTERN MA PER 00Z EC AND 00Z GFS! EVEN THE COURSE 00Z GEFS HAS
THE SAME SIGNAL AND STRENGTH. THIS AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY COMBINED
WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR UP TO 50 KT PROVIDES AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE
FOR SEVERE STORMS. ONLY UNCERTAINTY IS WILL THERE BE ENOUGH FORCING
FOR ASCENT TO UNLEASH THIS STRONG INSTABILITY. MIXED SIGNALS WITHIN
THE GUIDANCE WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF NOT GENERATING MUCH QPF TONIGHT
WHILE THE HI RES GUID NMM AND ARW HAVE CONVECTION BUT WEAKENING AS
IT CROSSES THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST. SOMEWHAT DISCOUNTING THE NAM
GIVEN IT/S HIGH BIASED DEW PTS AND CORRESPONDING INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS.

THUS LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
CONVECTION. HOWEVER IF STORMS CAN FIRE STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS WILL
BE A CONCERN. LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS IMPRESSIVE TOO ALONG WITH
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND LOW LCLS /HIGH DEW PTS/ FOR A LOW RISK OF
AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

IT WILL BE A WARM AND HUMID NIGHT WITH DEW PTS RISING THROUGH THE
U60S AND L70S.

TUESDAY...

FORECAST UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES AS AREAL COVERAGE OF NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION AND CLOUD DEBRIS FROM TONIGHT WILL IMPACT IF NEW
CONVECTION FIRES DURING THE DAY TUES. SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA ALONG WITH ATTENDING SURFACE TROUGH. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE
ENOUGH FORCING FOR ASCENT TO INITIATE CONVECTION. DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE FOCUSED ACROSS RI AND EASTERN
MA. THUS RISK OF STORMS GREATEST ACROSS THIS AREA. WINDS FIELDS
REMAIN IMPRESSIVE SO RISK OF STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS CONTINUES.

ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S ALONG WITH DEW PTS IN
THE U60S TO L70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE AROUND FRIDAY
* TEMPERATURES TRENDING BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN DESCENT AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER JAMES BAY WILL BEGIN ITS EASTWARD
MOVEMENT TOWARDS THE MARITIMES. ELONGATED TROUGH WILL SET UP OVER
THE REGION BEFORE TRENDING TOWARDS A ZONAL FLOW. SEVERAL SOUTHERN
STREAM WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH AND TRIES TO BRING A FEW COASTAL
SYSTEMS TOWARDS SNE. THE PATTERN DOES NOT SEEM THAT AMPLIFIED TO
MAKE IT A CLASSIC COASTAL LOW...HOWEVER UPPER LEVEL JET MAY BRING A
FEW SYSTEMS JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY AT
THE END OF THE WEEK...TRENDED TOWARDS THE ENSEMBLES WHICH INDICATE
PRECIP AROUND LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AND AGAIN POSSIBLE
SATURDAY/SUNDAY. THIS UNSEASONABLE PATTERN WILL LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS AS COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR CYCLONIC FLOW AND
COLD AIR ALOFT...RESULTING IN A FEW AFTERNOON INSTABILITY SHOWERS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE A MIX OF CLOUDS AND
SUNSHINE.

CYCLONIC FLOW WILL STILL BE ALOFT BY THURSDAY BUT COLD AIR ALOFT
WILL BE FOCUS MORE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THEREFORE BELIEVE
THURSDAY WILL BE DRY WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL BOTH DAYS WITH SNE REACHING
INTO THE 80S ON WEDNESDAYS BUT BELOW 80 ON THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL TRY TO DEVELOP A SOUTHERN WAVE DURING THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK. BOTH ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AS WELL AS THE OPERATIONS
EC BRINGS PRECIP TO THE REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THEREFORE
HAVE INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST WHERE
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST. SNE WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THIS
SYSTEM SO ANY SHIFT IN THE PATTERN WILL MOVE THE PRECIP CHC FOR THE
REGION. FINALLY BEING ON THE NORTH-SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE UNSEASONABLE COOLER. IN FACT TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO
GET ABOVE 80F.

SATURDAY AND BEYOND...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE TRIES TO DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON IF THE PATTERN WILL BRING THIS LOW TO SNE. HAVE KEPT A
LOW CHC AS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FLIP-FLOP DURING THE TIMEFRAME.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE OVER THE WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CONUS BEGINS TO BUILD
AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR AND DRY. TSRA IN NY STATE THIS AFTERNOON MAY CLIP W LATE. SSW
WINDS INCREASING WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KT.

TONIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE.
LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF POTENTIAL
TSRA. VFR TO START BUT LOWERING TO MVFR AND PROBABLY IFR IN LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG ACROSS RI AND SE MA.

TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF POTENTIAL
TSRA. A MIX OF MVFR AND IFR IN THE MORNING AS LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
IMPACT THE TERMINALS. LIKELY IMPROVING TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TODAY THEN LOWERING TONIGHT
AND TUE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TODAY THEN LOWERING TONIGHT
AND TUE.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. COULD SEE MVFR IN
SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND
MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE BUT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN. LATEST INDICATIONS ARE
THAT BEST CHANCE FOR WET WEATHER WILL BE ON FRI.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SSW WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. SEAS
INCREASE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH COASTAL WATERS.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SSW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. GUSTS UP TO 25 KT POSSIBLE. PATCHY FOG WILL
LIMIT VSBY. A FEW STRONG T-STORMS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LOW CONFIDENCE ON T-STORM FORECAST.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SSW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT POSSIBLE. PATCHY
MORNING FOG MAY REDUCE VSBY. A FEW STRONG T-STORMS POSSIBLE. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON T-STORM FORECAST.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. W/SW WINDS BELOW SCA BUT GUSTS TO
20 KT POSSIBLE. SEAS SUBSIDING.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DEPEND ON
TRACK AND TIMING OF LOW PRES APPROACHING THE REGION. COULD SEE A
PERIOD OF GUSTY NE WINDS...ESPECIALLY FRI.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...NOCERA/DUNTEN
MARINE...NOCERA/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 031354
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
954 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

DRY WEATHER PREVAILS MUCH OF TODAY THEN THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS TUESDAY MORNING. DRY...
WARM AND LESS HUMID WEATHER ARRIVES WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUES INTO
THURSDAY. A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE TIMING OF POTENTIAL
WET WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

10 AM UPDATE...

SCATTERED SHOWERS SOME OF WHICH EVOLVING INTO THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
ERUPTED SE OF NEW ENGLAND OVER THE WATERS. BENEATH FAVORABLE MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALONG A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL GRADIENT OF HIGHER
THETA-E AIR...CONVERGENCE IS LENDING TO DEVELOPMENT. BUT ACTIVITY
IS STAYING LOW AND NOT BECOMING ROBUST DUE TO THE ABSENCE OF DEEP
LAYER FORCING. ONLY INSTABILITY AND CONVERGENCE OF MOISTURE ARE
AIDING IN THE PROCESS WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF BULK SHEAR VALUES
OF AROUND 25 KTS. COLLOCATED UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK AND ATTENDANT
VENTING AIDING AS WELL.

FEEL THE ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AND THUS HAVE
INCREASED THE RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE SE WATERS. UNCERTAIN AS TO
PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE CAPE/ISLANDS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY
AND AS TO WHETHER WE CAN GENERATE SOME UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT VIA A
COLLOCATED AFOREMENTIONED H3 JET STREAK. AGAIN...FORCING APPEARS
TO BE CONVERGENT RELATED SO WITH ANY LATER ACTIVITY FEEL IT WILL
REMAIN SUB-SEVERE.

OTHERWISE A WARM AND HUMID DAY ESPECIALLY FOR SE NEW ENGLAND AS
TEMPERATURES TOP OUT INTO THE UPPER-80S TO LOW-90S WITH DEWPOINTS
AROUND THE MID-60S. DRIER N/W WITH UPPER-50 TO LOW-60 DEWPOINTS. A
MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS UNDER BREEZY SW-WINDS GUSTING 20-25 MPH.

AGREE WITH THE PRIOR FORECAST TEAM THAT LITTLE HEIGHT FALLS ARE
ANTICIPATED TODAY BENEATH MID-LEVEL DRY AIR PER 12Z SOUNDINGS.
RIDGE SHOULD HOLD IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION KEEPING OUR AREA DRY.
THUS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY N AND W BUT IT IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THE REMNANTS AS WELL AS THE CONVECTIVE
ENVIRONMENT OF BETTER INSTABILITY AND FORCING CAN DRIFT INTO NW MA
TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD INTO EVENING WITH THE MEAN WIND.
CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...

*** POSSIBLE STRONG TO SEVERE T-STORMS LATER TONIGHT INTO TUE ***

TONIGHT...

MORE POTENT TRAILING SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND FROM THE WEST. THIS IS QUITE EVIDENT IN WIND FIELDS ALOFT
WHERE 500 MB SPEEDS APPROACH 50 KTS! THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH COOLS H5
TEMPS TO -11C/-12C. THIS COMBINED WITH SURFACE DEW PTS INCREASING
INTO THE U60S AND L70S PROVIDES MUCAPES GREATER THAN 2000J/KG AND
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 6.5 AND 7.0C/KM BY 12Z TUE ACROSS RI
AND EASTERN MA PER 00Z EC AND 00Z GFS! EVEN THE COURSE 00Z GEFS HAS
THE SAME SIGNAL AND STRENGTH. THIS AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY COMBINED
WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR UP TO 50 KT PROVIDES AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE
FOR SEVERE STORMS. ONLY UNCERTAINTY IS WILL THERE BE ENOUGH FORCING
FOR ASCENT TO UNLEASH THIS STRONG INSTABILITY. MIXED SIGNALS WITHIN
THE GUIDANCE WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF NOT GENERATING MUCH QPF TONIGHT
WHILE THE HI RES GUID NMM AND ARW HAVE CONVECTION BUT WEAKENING AS
IT CROSSES THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST. SOMEWHAT DISCOUNTING THE NAM
GIVEN IT/S HIGH BIASED DEW PTS AND CORRESPONDING INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS.

THUS LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
CONVECTION. HOWEVER IF STORMS CAN FIRE STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS WILL
BE A CONCERN. LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS IMPRESSIVE TOO ALONG WITH
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND LOW LCLS /HIGH DEW PTS/ FOR A LOW RISK OF
AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

IT WILL BE A WARM AND HUMID NIGHT WITH DEW PTS RISING THROUGH THE
U60S AND L70S.

TUESDAY...

FORECAST UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES AS AREAL COVERAGE OF NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION AND CLOUD DEBRIS FROM TONIGHT WILL IMPACT IF NEW
CONVECTION FIRES DURING THE DAY TUES. SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA ALONG WITH ATTENDING SURFACE TROUGH. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE
ENOUGH FORCING FOR ASCENT TO INITIATE CONVECTION. DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE FOCUSED ACROSS RI AND EASTERN
MA. THUS RISK OF STORMS GREATEST ACROSS THIS AREA. WINDS FIELDS
REMAIN IMPRESSIVE SO RISK OF STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS CONTINUES.

ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S ALONG WITH DEW PTS IN
THE U60S TO L70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE AROUND FRIDAY
* TEMPERATURES TRENDING BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN DESCENT AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER JAMES BAY WILL BEGIN ITS EASTWARD
MOVEMENT TOWARDS THE MARITIMES. ELONGATED TROUGH WILL SET UP OVER
THE REGION BEFORE TRENDING TOWARDS A ZONAL FLOW. SEVERAL SOUTHERN
STREAM WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH AND TRIES TO BRING A FEW COASTAL
SYSTEMS TOWARDS SNE. THE PATTERN DOES NOT SEEM THAT AMPLIFIED TO
MAKE IT A CLASSIC COASTAL LOW...HOWEVER UPPER LEVEL JET MAY BRING A
FEW SYSTEMS JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY AT
THE END OF THE WEEK...TRENDED TOWARDS THE ENSEMBLES WHICH INDICATE
PRECIP AROUND LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AND AGAIN POSSIBLE
SATURDAY/SUNDAY. THIS UNSEASONABLE PATTERN WILL LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS AS COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR CYCLONIC FLOW AND
COLD AIR ALOFT...RESULTING IN A FEW AFTERNOON INSTABILITY SHOWERS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE A MIX OF CLOUDS AND
SUNSHINE.

CYCLONIC FLOW WILL STILL BE ALOFT BY THURSDAY BUT COLD AIR ALOFT
WILL BE FOCUS MORE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THEREFORE BELIEVE
THURSDAY WILL BE DRY WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL BOTH DAYS WITH SNE REACHING
INTO THE 80S ON WEDNESDAYS BUT BELOW 80 ON THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL TRY TO DEVELOP A SOUTHERN WAVE DURING THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK. BOTH ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AS WELL AS THE OPERATIONS
EC BRINGS PRECIP TO THE REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THEREFORE
HAVE INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST WHERE
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST. SNE WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THIS
SYSTEM SO ANY SHIFT IN THE PATTERN WILL MOVE THE PRECIP CHC FOR THE
REGION. FINALLY BEING ON THE NORTH-SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE UNSEASONABLE COOLER. IN FACT TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO
GET ABOVE 80F.

SATURDAY AND BEYOND...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE TRIES TO DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON IF THE PATTERN WILL BRING THIS LOW TO SNE. HAVE KEPT A
LOW CHC AS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FLIP-FLOP DURING THE TIMEFRAME.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE OVER THE WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CONUS BEGINS TO BUILD
AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR AND DRY. TSRA IN NY STATE THIS AFTERNOON MAY CLIP W LATE. SSW
WINDS INCREASING WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KT.

TONIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE.
LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF POTENTIAL
TSRA. VFR TO START BUT LOWERING TO MVFR AND PROBABLY IFR IN LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG ACROSS RI AND SE MA.

TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF POTENTIAL
TSRA. A MIX OF MVFR AND IFR IN THE MORNING AS LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
IMPACT THE TERMINALS. LIKELY IMPROVING TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TODAY THEN LOWERING TONIGHT
AND TUE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TODAY THEN LOWERING TONIGHT
AND TUE.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. COULD SEE MVFR IN
SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND
MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE BUT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN. LATEST INDICATIONS ARE
THAT BEST CHANCE FOR WET WEATHER WILL BE ON FRI.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SSW WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. SEAS
INCREASE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH COASTAL WATERS.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SSW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. GUSTS UP TO 25 KT POSSIBLE. PATCHY FOG WILL
LIMIT VSBY. A FEW STRONG T-STORMS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LOW CONFIDENCE ON T-STORM FORECAST.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SSW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT POSSIBLE. PATCHY
MORNING FOG MAY REDUCE VSBY. A FEW STRONG T-STORMS POSSIBLE. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON T-STORM FORECAST.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. W/SW WINDS BELOW SCA BUT GUSTS TO
20 KT POSSIBLE. SEAS SUBSIDING.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DEPEND ON
TRACK AND TIMING OF LOW PRES APPROACHING THE REGION. COULD SEE A
PERIOD OF GUSTY NE WINDS...ESPECIALLY FRI.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...NOCERA/DUNTEN
MARINE...NOCERA/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KALY 031341
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
941 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TODAY.  THERE IS A CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.  THE COLD FRONT
WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
ARRIVE FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
     SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...

AS OF 930 AM EDT...AN H500 CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO BE
NEAR NRN ONTARIO AND JAMES BAY THIS MORNING. SEVERAL SHORT- WAVES
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
FCST AREA THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ONE SHORT-WAVE CURRENTLY IN THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LONG-
WAVE TROUGH WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATER TODAY...AS IT MOVES
THROUGH. BUT UNTIL THEN THE FCST AREA IS LARGELY UNDER THE LEFT
FRONT EXIT RGN OF A JET WITH SUBSIDENCE OVER MOST OF FCST THIS
MORNING.

THE 12UTC RAOB SHOWS CONSIDERABLE CAPPING AT 550 HPA AND 850HPA. AT
THE SFC...A CDFNT WAS FM NW OHIO INTO THE OTTAWA VALLEY...LEAVING
THE FCST AREA IN WARM SECTOR MUCH OF TDY. CURRENTLY TD ARE AROUND
60...WITH NOT MUCH MORE MOISTURE ADVECTION LIKELY TODAY AS
UPSTREAM TD IN PA ARE IN SAME RANGE. SPC MESO ANAL HAS 150-250
J/KG OF CIN OVER FCA ATTM.

A PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH AHEAD OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS WRN-CNTRL NY LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED TO FIRE JUST AHEAD OR IN THE PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH
ZONE BTWN THE SFC TROUGH AND THE COLD FRONT.

THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A THREAT WILL INCREASE FOR
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
SOME SCT STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY REACH THE SRN
DACKS/W-CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY BTWN 2-5 PM...THEN MUCH OF ERN NY BTWN
5-8 PM INCLUDING THE CAPITAL REGION...AND THEN POTENTIALLY
SPREADING INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND BTWN 8-11 PM. THE LATEST HIRESWRF
REF PRODUCT CONTINUES THIS TREND...THOUGH THE HRRR IS A LITTLE
FASTER. THE 4-KM WPC SPC WRF ACTUALLY HAS SOME CONVECTION FIRE
WITH AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NEAR THE LAKE GEORGE REGION AROUND 2-4
PM. WE ARE GOING TO STICK CLOSER TO THE HIRESWRF FOR THE TIMING AT
THIS POINT.

THE BEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE OVER THE FCST AREA IN THE
EARLY TO MID PM BASED ON THE GFS/NAM. THESE LAPSE RATES WILL BE IN
THE 6.5-7+C/KM RANGE. THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE
INSTABILITY PROFILES BTWN THE NAM/GFS. THE NAM IS ON THE HIGHER
END WITH SBCAPES OF ROUGHLY 1000-2000 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
SFC DEWPTS. THE GFS HAS ONLY SBCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER POCKETS. THE SFC DEWPTS ARE LOWER ON THE GFS. THE
SFC TO BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE FROM THE S/SW DURING THE DAY. THE
0-6 KM BULK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES INCREASE TO 35-45 KTS
DURING THE PM. SOME DEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE. MULTICELLS OR MULTICELL
LINES LOOK POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WITH THE UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND
PROFILES IN THE BUFKIT SOUNDS. SOME BOWING ELEMENTS/WET MICROBURSTS
MAY OCCUR...AS INVERTED-V PROFILES ARE ALSO EVIDENT IN THE
SOUNDINGS. DAMAGING WINDS LOOK LIKE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AS THE SECONDARY THREAT.  ACTUALLY H850
TEMPS INCREASE TO +15C TO +19C OVER THE FCST AREA. HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH THE M80S TO LOWER 90S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND
M70S TO L80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE BETTER UPPER JET DYNAMICS ARRIVE TOWARDS NIGHTFALL...BUT
DECENT UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OCCURS OVER ERN NY PRIOR TO THEN.
PWATS DO INCREASE TO 1.25-1.50+ INCHES OVER MOST OF THE
REGION...SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE. WE WILL
CONTINUE THE TREND FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN THE ZONES/GRIDS
TO PHRASE THAT SOME STORMS MAYBE SEVERE IN THE MID PM TO LATE PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE DEGREE OF HOW WIDESPREAD THE SEVERE WEATHER MAY
POTENTIALLY BE WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAST THE UPPER IMPULSE AND COLD
FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...SINCE THE INSTABILITY MAY POSSIBLY
BE WANING. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
ARRIVE TOWARDS SUNSET...AN IMPRESSIVE CYCLONICALLY CURVED JET
STREAK AT H250 OF 85-95 KTS WILL PASS WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY. ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND WILL BE NEAR THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE JET STREAK. SOME ENHANCEMENT TO THE CONVECTION MAY
OCCUR...AND SOME OF THE MULTICELLS MAY GET INTO WRN ENGLAND. THERE
MAYBE AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL OR TWO CLOSER TO THE BETTER DEEP
SHEAR...WHICH LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE NORTH OF THE I-90 CORRIDOR AT
THIS POINT. HIGH CHC AND LIKELY POPS WERE MAINTAINED AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT...AS IT SAGS E/SE ACROSS THE FCST AREA. SOME HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT THE PWATS DO NOT LOOK HIGHLY
ANOMALOUS AT THIS POINT /AROUND A STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL/. THE
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD START AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER.
AT THIS POINT IT IS HARD TO TELL IF A WIDESPREAD OR MAJOR EVENT
WILL OCCUR FOR THE REGION....BUT WE AGREE WITH SPC AND HAVE AT
LEAST MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR SOME SEVERE IN THE FCST AREA. LOWS
MON NIGHT WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE WITH MID AND U60S FROM THE
EASTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE LAKE GEORGE REGION
SOUTH AND EAST...AND U50S AND L60S NORTH AND WEST.

TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR WRN NEW ENGLAND BY
DAYBREAK. THE SFC DEWPT BOUNDARY WILL STILL BE PROGRESSING EAST
ACROSS ERN NY. THE NAM IS ADVERTISING ALOT OF INSTABILITY FOR TUE
WITH A DEEPLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THE GFS HAS LESS AGAIN...BUT
THERE IS A SMALL AREA OF HIGH INSTABILITY FROM THE THE MASS PIKE
SOUTH AND EAST INTO NW CT. SPC DOES HAVE LITCHFIELD CTY CLIPPED BY
THE MARGINAL RISK. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE AROUND 6.5C/KM
WITH ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR SOME STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL /NO ENHANCED WORDING YET/...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST. LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING
DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE PM. DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS OFF THE
ERN CATSKILLS/ERN DACKS MAY ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO GET INTO THE MID
AND U80S IN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION. EXPECT M70S TO
L80S IN MOST OTHER LOCATIONS...EXCEPT OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN
GREENS WHERE SOME U60S TO L70S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE COLD ADVECTION
REGIME...AS H850 TEMPS LOWER TO +10C TO +16C FROM NW TO SE OVER
THE FCST AREA BY THE LATE PM. A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SUNSET.

TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL HEATING THE SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY. THE ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS MAY LINGER THE LONGEST OVER THE SRN DACKS. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60F WITH SOME U40S TO L50S
OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN GREENS. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE QUITE
COMFORTABLE.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE FCST AREA WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER S-CNTRL QUEBEC. IN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW ANOTHER PIECE OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY WILL SWING ACROSS UPSTATE
NY AND NEW ENGLAND. THE BEST CHC OF ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS DUE TO THE
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. H500 TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -15C TO -18C FROM ALY
NORTH AND WEST. THE H500 HEIGHTS ARE ABOUT 2-3 STD DEVS BELOW
NORMAL BASED ON THE LATEST GEFS FOR WED. H850 TEMPS WILL BE 1-2
STD DEVS BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS ON WED WILL BE IN THE M60S TO L70S
OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS...WITH A FEW 80F
READINGS NEAR KPOU. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR COOL NIGHT FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF AUG...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE U40S TO M50S OVER
THE FCST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.

GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT SHOULD STALL TO OUR
SOUTH LATE IN THE WEEK SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE EXACT
LOCATION IS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION AT THIS TIME. GUIDANCE IS ALSO IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE IN THE WEEK LEAVING THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
NORTHEAST UNDER A LONGWAVE TROUGH THOUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS ARE ON HOW THEY HANDLE SHORT WAVE ENERGY
MOVING THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AND ITS IMPACTS THE POSITION OF THE
STALLED BOUNDARY AND THE STRENGTHEN OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT IS
EXPECTED TO FORM AND MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY. GUIDANCE HAVE NOT
BEEN SHOWING ANY CONSISTENCY. AT THIS TIME...THE OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE GFS
KEEPS THE BOUNDARY...LOW AND PRECIPITATION SHIELD TO OUR SOUTH WHILE THE
ECMWF BRINGS A SOAKING RAINFALL TO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
TO MAINLY TO AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90.

HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER TO MAINTAIN
FORECAST CONSISTENCY AND HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-90 LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AS FOR THE WEEKEND...HAVE MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCES
POPS SINCE THE TIMING OF ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVES IN HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE
TAF SITES AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH
CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR WITH THE CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT HAVE NOT BEEN INCLUDE
IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. HAVE ADDRESSED THE THREAT OF THE STORMS WITH
A PROB30 GROUP INCLUDING THUNDERSTORMS. FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT AS THE CLOUD COVER DECREASES AND WINDS LIGHTEN UP.

AT KALB...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AND ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY.
AT THE OTHER TAF SITES...A SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND WILL DEVELOP
WHICH WILL BECOME GUSTY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY. A LIGHTER
SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE STORMS AS WE HEAD INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU NIGHT-FRI: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TODAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE COLD
FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING...BUT AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
ARRIVE FOR WEDNESDAY.

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 40 TO 60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...AND
INCREASE TO 75 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO
35 TO 55 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH
TODAY...AND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH TONIGHT. THE WINDS
WILL BE FORM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH ON TUESDAY WITH
THE FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS RISE UP TO AROUND 1.5
INCHES AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO
SOME MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS. ALSO
SOME SHARP WITHIN BANK RISES WOULD BE EXPECTED ON STREAMS...CREEKS
AND SOME SMALL RIVERS.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES AND PASSES OVER THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY
RANGE FROM A TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS.

A TREND TOWARDS DRIER WEATHER WILL OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...AND
CONTINUE UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...SNYDER/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA



000
FXUS61 KALY 031341
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
941 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TODAY.  THERE IS A CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.  THE COLD FRONT
WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
ARRIVE FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
     SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...

AS OF 930 AM EDT...AN H500 CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO BE
NEAR NRN ONTARIO AND JAMES BAY THIS MORNING. SEVERAL SHORT- WAVES
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
FCST AREA THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ONE SHORT-WAVE CURRENTLY IN THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LONG-
WAVE TROUGH WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATER TODAY...AS IT MOVES
THROUGH. BUT UNTIL THEN THE FCST AREA IS LARGELY UNDER THE LEFT
FRONT EXIT RGN OF A JET WITH SUBSIDENCE OVER MOST OF FCST THIS
MORNING.

THE 12UTC RAOB SHOWS CONSIDERABLE CAPPING AT 550 HPA AND 850HPA. AT
THE SFC...A CDFNT WAS FM NW OHIO INTO THE OTTAWA VALLEY...LEAVING
THE FCST AREA IN WARM SECTOR MUCH OF TDY. CURRENTLY TD ARE AROUND
60...WITH NOT MUCH MORE MOISTURE ADVECTION LIKELY TODAY AS
UPSTREAM TD IN PA ARE IN SAME RANGE. SPC MESO ANAL HAS 150-250
J/KG OF CIN OVER FCA ATTM.

A PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH AHEAD OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS WRN-CNTRL NY LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED TO FIRE JUST AHEAD OR IN THE PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH
ZONE BTWN THE SFC TROUGH AND THE COLD FRONT.

THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A THREAT WILL INCREASE FOR
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
SOME SCT STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY REACH THE SRN
DACKS/W-CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY BTWN 2-5 PM...THEN MUCH OF ERN NY BTWN
5-8 PM INCLUDING THE CAPITAL REGION...AND THEN POTENTIALLY
SPREADING INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND BTWN 8-11 PM. THE LATEST HIRESWRF
REF PRODUCT CONTINUES THIS TREND...THOUGH THE HRRR IS A LITTLE
FASTER. THE 4-KM WPC SPC WRF ACTUALLY HAS SOME CONVECTION FIRE
WITH AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NEAR THE LAKE GEORGE REGION AROUND 2-4
PM. WE ARE GOING TO STICK CLOSER TO THE HIRESWRF FOR THE TIMING AT
THIS POINT.

THE BEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE OVER THE FCST AREA IN THE
EARLY TO MID PM BASED ON THE GFS/NAM. THESE LAPSE RATES WILL BE IN
THE 6.5-7+C/KM RANGE. THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE
INSTABILITY PROFILES BTWN THE NAM/GFS. THE NAM IS ON THE HIGHER
END WITH SBCAPES OF ROUGHLY 1000-2000 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
SFC DEWPTS. THE GFS HAS ONLY SBCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER POCKETS. THE SFC DEWPTS ARE LOWER ON THE GFS. THE
SFC TO BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE FROM THE S/SW DURING THE DAY. THE
0-6 KM BULK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES INCREASE TO 35-45 KTS
DURING THE PM. SOME DEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE. MULTICELLS OR MULTICELL
LINES LOOK POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WITH THE UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND
PROFILES IN THE BUFKIT SOUNDS. SOME BOWING ELEMENTS/WET MICROBURSTS
MAY OCCUR...AS INVERTED-V PROFILES ARE ALSO EVIDENT IN THE
SOUNDINGS. DAMAGING WINDS LOOK LIKE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AS THE SECONDARY THREAT.  ACTUALLY H850
TEMPS INCREASE TO +15C TO +19C OVER THE FCST AREA. HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH THE M80S TO LOWER 90S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND
M70S TO L80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE BETTER UPPER JET DYNAMICS ARRIVE TOWARDS NIGHTFALL...BUT
DECENT UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OCCURS OVER ERN NY PRIOR TO THEN.
PWATS DO INCREASE TO 1.25-1.50+ INCHES OVER MOST OF THE
REGION...SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE. WE WILL
CONTINUE THE TREND FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN THE ZONES/GRIDS
TO PHRASE THAT SOME STORMS MAYBE SEVERE IN THE MID PM TO LATE PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE DEGREE OF HOW WIDESPREAD THE SEVERE WEATHER MAY
POTENTIALLY BE WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAST THE UPPER IMPULSE AND COLD
FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...SINCE THE INSTABILITY MAY POSSIBLY
BE WANING. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
ARRIVE TOWARDS SUNSET...AN IMPRESSIVE CYCLONICALLY CURVED JET
STREAK AT H250 OF 85-95 KTS WILL PASS WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY. ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND WILL BE NEAR THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE JET STREAK. SOME ENHANCEMENT TO THE CONVECTION MAY
OCCUR...AND SOME OF THE MULTICELLS MAY GET INTO WRN ENGLAND. THERE
MAYBE AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL OR TWO CLOSER TO THE BETTER DEEP
SHEAR...WHICH LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE NORTH OF THE I-90 CORRIDOR AT
THIS POINT. HIGH CHC AND LIKELY POPS WERE MAINTAINED AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT...AS IT SAGS E/SE ACROSS THE FCST AREA. SOME HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT THE PWATS DO NOT LOOK HIGHLY
ANOMALOUS AT THIS POINT /AROUND A STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL/. THE
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD START AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER.
AT THIS POINT IT IS HARD TO TELL IF A WIDESPREAD OR MAJOR EVENT
WILL OCCUR FOR THE REGION....BUT WE AGREE WITH SPC AND HAVE AT
LEAST MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR SOME SEVERE IN THE FCST AREA. LOWS
MON NIGHT WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE WITH MID AND U60S FROM THE
EASTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE LAKE GEORGE REGION
SOUTH AND EAST...AND U50S AND L60S NORTH AND WEST.

TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR WRN NEW ENGLAND BY
DAYBREAK. THE SFC DEWPT BOUNDARY WILL STILL BE PROGRESSING EAST
ACROSS ERN NY. THE NAM IS ADVERTISING ALOT OF INSTABILITY FOR TUE
WITH A DEEPLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THE GFS HAS LESS AGAIN...BUT
THERE IS A SMALL AREA OF HIGH INSTABILITY FROM THE THE MASS PIKE
SOUTH AND EAST INTO NW CT. SPC DOES HAVE LITCHFIELD CTY CLIPPED BY
THE MARGINAL RISK. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE AROUND 6.5C/KM
WITH ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR SOME STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL /NO ENHANCED WORDING YET/...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST. LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING
DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE PM. DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS OFF THE
ERN CATSKILLS/ERN DACKS MAY ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO GET INTO THE MID
AND U80S IN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION. EXPECT M70S TO
L80S IN MOST OTHER LOCATIONS...EXCEPT OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN
GREENS WHERE SOME U60S TO L70S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE COLD ADVECTION
REGIME...AS H850 TEMPS LOWER TO +10C TO +16C FROM NW TO SE OVER
THE FCST AREA BY THE LATE PM. A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SUNSET.

TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL HEATING THE SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY. THE ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS MAY LINGER THE LONGEST OVER THE SRN DACKS. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60F WITH SOME U40S TO L50S
OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN GREENS. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE QUITE
COMFORTABLE.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE FCST AREA WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER S-CNTRL QUEBEC. IN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW ANOTHER PIECE OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY WILL SWING ACROSS UPSTATE
NY AND NEW ENGLAND. THE BEST CHC OF ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS DUE TO THE
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. H500 TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -15C TO -18C FROM ALY
NORTH AND WEST. THE H500 HEIGHTS ARE ABOUT 2-3 STD DEVS BELOW
NORMAL BASED ON THE LATEST GEFS FOR WED. H850 TEMPS WILL BE 1-2
STD DEVS BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS ON WED WILL BE IN THE M60S TO L70S
OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS...WITH A FEW 80F
READINGS NEAR KPOU. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR COOL NIGHT FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF AUG...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE U40S TO M50S OVER
THE FCST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.

GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT SHOULD STALL TO OUR
SOUTH LATE IN THE WEEK SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE EXACT
LOCATION IS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION AT THIS TIME. GUIDANCE IS ALSO IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE IN THE WEEK LEAVING THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
NORTHEAST UNDER A LONGWAVE TROUGH THOUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS ARE ON HOW THEY HANDLE SHORT WAVE ENERGY
MOVING THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AND ITS IMPACTS THE POSITION OF THE
STALLED BOUNDARY AND THE STRENGTHEN OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT IS
EXPECTED TO FORM AND MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY. GUIDANCE HAVE NOT
BEEN SHOWING ANY CONSISTENCY. AT THIS TIME...THE OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE GFS
KEEPS THE BOUNDARY...LOW AND PRECIPITATION SHIELD TO OUR SOUTH WHILE THE
ECMWF BRINGS A SOAKING RAINFALL TO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
TO MAINLY TO AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90.

HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER TO MAINTAIN
FORECAST CONSISTENCY AND HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-90 LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AS FOR THE WEEKEND...HAVE MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCES
POPS SINCE THE TIMING OF ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVES IN HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE
TAF SITES AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH
CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR WITH THE CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT HAVE NOT BEEN INCLUDE
IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. HAVE ADDRESSED THE THREAT OF THE STORMS WITH
A PROB30 GROUP INCLUDING THUNDERSTORMS. FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT AS THE CLOUD COVER DECREASES AND WINDS LIGHTEN UP.

AT KALB...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AND ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY.
AT THE OTHER TAF SITES...A SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND WILL DEVELOP
WHICH WILL BECOME GUSTY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY. A LIGHTER
SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE STORMS AS WE HEAD INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU NIGHT-FRI: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TODAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE COLD
FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING...BUT AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
ARRIVE FOR WEDNESDAY.

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 40 TO 60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...AND
INCREASE TO 75 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO
35 TO 55 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH
TODAY...AND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH TONIGHT. THE WINDS
WILL BE FORM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH ON TUESDAY WITH
THE FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS RISE UP TO AROUND 1.5
INCHES AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO
SOME MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS. ALSO
SOME SHARP WITHIN BANK RISES WOULD BE EXPECTED ON STREAMS...CREEKS
AND SOME SMALL RIVERS.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES AND PASSES OVER THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY
RANGE FROM A TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS.

A TREND TOWARDS DRIER WEATHER WILL OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...AND
CONTINUE UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...SNYDER/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KOKX 031124
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
724 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA LATE TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST ON TRACK THIS MORNING. LOW PRESSURE NEAR JAMES BAY IS
PULLING A COLD FRONT SLOWLY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS FRONT
WILL SLOWLY MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. A MOSTLY SUNNY
DAY IS EXPECTED OVERALL...WITH SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATE IN THE
DAY.

DESPITE TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 90S...INSTABILITY IS NOT IMPRESSIVE
WITH DEW POINT TEMPS AROUND 60. BULK SHEAR IS AROUND 30 KTS...BUT
STILL LOW. NCAR ENSEMBLE IS DRY AS ARE LOCAL STONY BROOK WRF RUNS
AND THE NCEP DETERMINISTIC RUNS. ONLY EXCEPTION TO NO CONVECTION
IS THE SPC WRF WHICH GENERATES A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER AROUND 3 PM
LOCAL IN NORTH JERSEY THAT TRACKS ENE ACROSS THE CITY. THE
OPERATIONAL HIRES RUN HAS SOME IDEA ABOUT THIS AS WELL...BUT LESS
INTENSE AND LESS COVERAGE.

BASED ON THEMODYNAMIC ANALYSIS...WILL STICK WITH A DRY FCST
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

TEMPS ARE TOWARDS THE WARMER GFS MOS NUMBERS.

SEA BREEZE ENHANCED WITH THE AMBROSE JET EFFECT AND GUSTS TO NEAR
30 MPH LATE THIS AFTN OVER WESTERN LONG ISLAND. AS SUCH...THERE IS
A HIGH RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE OCEAN
BEACHES TODAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES. A RIP CURRENT STATEMENT
IS IN EFFECT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT SAGS INTO THE REGION BY TUESDAY MORNING AND THEN
BECOMES DIFFUSE. RATHER UNCERTAIN ON DETAILS FOR PCPN IN THIS
PERIOD. HAVE CONTINUED THE IDEA OF SCT CONVECTION INTO TUESDAY
MORNING.

TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER
90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DEEP CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
INTO EASTERN CANADA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY. MUCH
DRIER AIR MOVES IN ON WEDNESDAY WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 50S. SOME
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES IN
THE AFTERNOON...BUT FEEL AT THIS TIME THE AIR MASS WILL BE TOO DRY
FOR ANY SHOWERS. HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST DRY FOR WEDNESDAY.

BY THURSDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON A PIECE OF ENERGY
INTERACTING WITH THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THIS SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MAY THEN MOVE ALONG THE BASE OF THE TROUGH THROUGH THE AREA
LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE AREA AND
MAY IMPACT THE REGION. THE 18Z SUN AND 00Z MONDAY GFS ARE FLATTER
WITH THE WAVE AND THUS KEEP LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE AREA COMPARED
TO ITS PREVIOUS 12Z SUNDAY RUN...WHILE THE 00Z MONDAY ECMWF IS
CONSISTENT WITH ITS 12Z RUN FROM SUNDAY INDICATING A MORE AMPLIFIED
SHORTWAVE. THIS MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION WOULD BRING THE BOUNDARY AND
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE CLOSER TO THE REGION. THE 00Z MONDAY CMC IS
THE MOST AMPLIFIED AND BRINGS THE LOW OVER THE AREA FRIDAY. THE 00Z
GFS APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER AS THE 00Z GEFS ARE FURTHER NORTH WITH
THE LOW AND MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE SHORTWAVE. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE
LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC LIFT TO WORK WITH...AS THE REGION LOOKS TO LIE
IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET OVER NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WOULD BE A POSSIBILITY IF
THE MORE AMPLIFIED AND FURTHER NORTH SOLUTIONS COME TO FRUITION.
HAVE CONTINUED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST OF CHANCE POPS DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME FRAME.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE OFFSHORE LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO
THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY...AND THEN
AVERAGE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE REST OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

VFR TODAY.

LIGHT S/SW FLOW WILL INCREASE DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING AND
BECOME GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON. STRONG SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT
EXPECTED AT COASTAL TERMINALS. GUSTS INTO THE LOW TO MID 20 KT
RANGE EXPECTED. THERE IS A LOW PROB FOR SE SEABREEZE TO WORK INTO
KEWR/KTEB.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDER LATE AT KSWF. WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY A PROB30 GROUP. ELSEWHERE...PROBABILITIES ARE TO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.

PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT...OUTSIDE OF THE NYC METRO
TERMINALS.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE OF GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE SEABREEZE. TIMING OF GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY +/- HOUR.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY +/- HOUR.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CHANCE OF SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT. WINDS MAY
BECOME SOUTHEAST FOR BRIEF PERIOD AFTER 20Z.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CHANCE OF SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT. WINDS MAY
BECOME SOUTHEAST FOR BRIEF PERIOD AFTER 20Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY BE OCCASIONAL THIS AFTERNOON.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS:  HIGH CONFIDENCE OF GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE SEABREEZE. TIMING OF GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY +/- HOUR.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUE THROUGH FRI...
.TUE...CHANCE OF TSTMS. COLD FROPA WITH S WINDS SHIFTING TO W.
.WED...VFR. W FLOW.
.THU-FRI...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS LATE TODAY...MOVING CLOSE TO
THE WATERS TONIGHT. WINDS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT INCREASE MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE LIGHTENING WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE FRONT.

OCEAN SEAS BUILD DUE TO THE INCREASE IN THESE WINDS. SCA
STARTING AT 4 PM LOCAL AND THROUGH TONIGHT. OCCASIONAL 25 KT
GUSTS POSSIBLE FOR NY HARBOR...WESTERN SOUTH SHORE BAYS AND
WESTERN LI SOUND LATE MONDAY AFT INTO MONDAY EVENING.

OCEAN SEAS WILL BE SUBSIDING TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT 5 FT SEAS MAY
LINGER ON THE EASTERN OCEAN UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY WITH SUB SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MAY PASS OVER THE WATERS FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK. OCCASIONAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL PRODUCT LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL...WHICH COULD LEAD TO MINOR POOR DRAINAGE NUISANCE FLOODING.

A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...A LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THIS
POTENTIAL EVENT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
     THIS EVENING FOR NYZ075-080-081-178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/TONGUE
NEAR TERM...TONGUE
SHORT TERM...TONGUE
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...DS/TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...DS/TONGUE



000
FXUS61 KOKX 031124
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
724 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA LATE TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST ON TRACK THIS MORNING. LOW PRESSURE NEAR JAMES BAY IS
PULLING A COLD FRONT SLOWLY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS FRONT
WILL SLOWLY MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. A MOSTLY SUNNY
DAY IS EXPECTED OVERALL...WITH SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATE IN THE
DAY.

DESPITE TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 90S...INSTABILITY IS NOT IMPRESSIVE
WITH DEW POINT TEMPS AROUND 60. BULK SHEAR IS AROUND 30 KTS...BUT
STILL LOW. NCAR ENSEMBLE IS DRY AS ARE LOCAL STONY BROOK WRF RUNS
AND THE NCEP DETERMINISTIC RUNS. ONLY EXCEPTION TO NO CONVECTION
IS THE SPC WRF WHICH GENERATES A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER AROUND 3 PM
LOCAL IN NORTH JERSEY THAT TRACKS ENE ACROSS THE CITY. THE
OPERATIONAL HIRES RUN HAS SOME IDEA ABOUT THIS AS WELL...BUT LESS
INTENSE AND LESS COVERAGE.

BASED ON THEMODYNAMIC ANALYSIS...WILL STICK WITH A DRY FCST
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

TEMPS ARE TOWARDS THE WARMER GFS MOS NUMBERS.

SEA BREEZE ENHANCED WITH THE AMBROSE JET EFFECT AND GUSTS TO NEAR
30 MPH LATE THIS AFTN OVER WESTERN LONG ISLAND. AS SUCH...THERE IS
A HIGH RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE OCEAN
BEACHES TODAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES. A RIP CURRENT STATEMENT
IS IN EFFECT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT SAGS INTO THE REGION BY TUESDAY MORNING AND THEN
BECOMES DIFFUSE. RATHER UNCERTAIN ON DETAILS FOR PCPN IN THIS
PERIOD. HAVE CONTINUED THE IDEA OF SCT CONVECTION INTO TUESDAY
MORNING.

TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER
90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DEEP CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
INTO EASTERN CANADA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY. MUCH
DRIER AIR MOVES IN ON WEDNESDAY WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 50S. SOME
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES IN
THE AFTERNOON...BUT FEEL AT THIS TIME THE AIR MASS WILL BE TOO DRY
FOR ANY SHOWERS. HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST DRY FOR WEDNESDAY.

BY THURSDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON A PIECE OF ENERGY
INTERACTING WITH THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THIS SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MAY THEN MOVE ALONG THE BASE OF THE TROUGH THROUGH THE AREA
LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE AREA AND
MAY IMPACT THE REGION. THE 18Z SUN AND 00Z MONDAY GFS ARE FLATTER
WITH THE WAVE AND THUS KEEP LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE AREA COMPARED
TO ITS PREVIOUS 12Z SUNDAY RUN...WHILE THE 00Z MONDAY ECMWF IS
CONSISTENT WITH ITS 12Z RUN FROM SUNDAY INDICATING A MORE AMPLIFIED
SHORTWAVE. THIS MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION WOULD BRING THE BOUNDARY AND
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE CLOSER TO THE REGION. THE 00Z MONDAY CMC IS
THE MOST AMPLIFIED AND BRINGS THE LOW OVER THE AREA FRIDAY. THE 00Z
GFS APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER AS THE 00Z GEFS ARE FURTHER NORTH WITH
THE LOW AND MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE SHORTWAVE. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE
LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC LIFT TO WORK WITH...AS THE REGION LOOKS TO LIE
IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET OVER NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WOULD BE A POSSIBILITY IF
THE MORE AMPLIFIED AND FURTHER NORTH SOLUTIONS COME TO FRUITION.
HAVE CONTINUED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST OF CHANCE POPS DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME FRAME.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE OFFSHORE LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO
THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY...AND THEN
AVERAGE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE REST OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

VFR TODAY.

LIGHT S/SW FLOW WILL INCREASE DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING AND
BECOME GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON. STRONG SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT
EXPECTED AT COASTAL TERMINALS. GUSTS INTO THE LOW TO MID 20 KT
RANGE EXPECTED. THERE IS A LOW PROB FOR SE SEABREEZE TO WORK INTO
KEWR/KTEB.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDER LATE AT KSWF. WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY A PROB30 GROUP. ELSEWHERE...PROBABILITIES ARE TO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.

PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT...OUTSIDE OF THE NYC METRO
TERMINALS.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE OF GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE SEABREEZE. TIMING OF GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY +/- HOUR.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY +/- HOUR.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CHANCE OF SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT. WINDS MAY
BECOME SOUTHEAST FOR BRIEF PERIOD AFTER 20Z.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CHANCE OF SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT. WINDS MAY
BECOME SOUTHEAST FOR BRIEF PERIOD AFTER 20Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY BE OCCASIONAL THIS AFTERNOON.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS:  HIGH CONFIDENCE OF GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE SEABREEZE. TIMING OF GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY +/- HOUR.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUE THROUGH FRI...
.TUE...CHANCE OF TSTMS. COLD FROPA WITH S WINDS SHIFTING TO W.
.WED...VFR. W FLOW.
.THU-FRI...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS LATE TODAY...MOVING CLOSE TO
THE WATERS TONIGHT. WINDS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT INCREASE MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE LIGHTENING WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE FRONT.

OCEAN SEAS BUILD DUE TO THE INCREASE IN THESE WINDS. SCA
STARTING AT 4 PM LOCAL AND THROUGH TONIGHT. OCCASIONAL 25 KT
GUSTS POSSIBLE FOR NY HARBOR...WESTERN SOUTH SHORE BAYS AND
WESTERN LI SOUND LATE MONDAY AFT INTO MONDAY EVENING.

OCEAN SEAS WILL BE SUBSIDING TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT 5 FT SEAS MAY
LINGER ON THE EASTERN OCEAN UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY WITH SUB SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MAY PASS OVER THE WATERS FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK. OCCASIONAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL PRODUCT LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL...WHICH COULD LEAD TO MINOR POOR DRAINAGE NUISANCE FLOODING.

A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...A LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THIS
POTENTIAL EVENT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
     THIS EVENING FOR NYZ075-080-081-178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/TONGUE
NEAR TERM...TONGUE
SHORT TERM...TONGUE
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...DS/TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...DS/TONGUE




000
FXUS61 KBOX 031103
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
703 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER PREVAILS MUCH OF TODAY THEN THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS THIS EVENING INTO TUE. DRY...WARM AND LESS
HUMID WEATHER ARRIVES WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY. A
PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE TIMING OF POTENTIAL WET
WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

700 AM UPDATE...

OVERALL TREND IN THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THIS MORNING.
SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPS SOUTH OF NANTUCKET THIS MORNING IN WAKE OF A
STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL JET AND INCREASING 925 MB MOISTURE.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS JET CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN.

OTHERWISE FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST HOUR ACROSS LOW LYING
REGIONS. THIS WILL DISSIPATE WITHIN THE HOUR AS TEMPS BEGIN TO
SOAR INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. STRATUS WILL ALSO BREAK UP
WITHIN THE HOUR SO AM NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IMPACT ON TERMINALS.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

QUITE THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE OH VLY.
MODELS APPEAR TO BE SIMULATING THIS CONVECTION FAIRLY WELL SO
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH REGARDING TODAY/S FORECAST FOR SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT LEAD SHORT WAVE OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WILL EJECT NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN NY STATE TODAY AND
THEN INTO NORTHERN VT AND ST LWRN RVR VLY THEREAFTER. THIS RESULTS
IN LITTLE IF ANY HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY.
THUS SHOULD BE ENOUGH EAST COAST RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL
DRY AIR TO PRECLUDE ANY STORMS FROM FORMING OR TRACKING INTO THE
AREA. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS ACROSS WESTERN MA...CLOSER TO THE JET
ENERGY/MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AXIS. THEREFORE THERE IS A LOW RISK
FOR A FEW STORMS LATE IN THE DAY TO POSSIBLY CLIP WESTERN MA.
OTHERWISE REMAINDER OF THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

SOUTH-SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS RESULTED IN DEW PTS RISING
OVERNIGHT INTO THE 60S TO AROUND 70 ACROSS RI AND SOUTHEAST MA.
THUS MORE HUMID THAN YESTERDAY. WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL RESULT IN TEMPS MAKING A RUN AT 90 AWAY FROM THE SOUTH COAST.
THEREFORE MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE HIGHS TODAY 85 TO 90. AN
INCREASING SSW WIND OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON WILL HELP TAKE SOME OF THE EDGE OFF THE WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
*** POSSIBLE STRONG TO SEVERE T-STORMS LATER TONIGHT INTO TUE ***

TONIGHT...

MORE POTENT TRAILING SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND FROM THE WEST. THIS IS QUITE EVIDENT IN WIND FIELDS ALOFT
WHERE 500 MB SPEEDS APPROACH 50 KTS! THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH COOLS H5
TEMPS TO -11C/-12C. THIS COMBINED WITH SURFACE DEW PTS INCREASING
INTO THE U60S AND L70S PROVIDES MUCAPES GREATER THAN 2000J/KG AND
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 6.5 AND 7.0C/KM BY 12Z TUE ACROSS RI
AND EASTERN MA PER 00Z EC AND 00Z GFS! EVEN THE COURSE 00Z GEFS HAS
THE SAME SIGNAL AND STRENGTH. THIS AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY COMBINED
WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR UP TO 50 KT PROVIDES AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE
FOR SEVERE STORMS. ONLY UNCERTAINTY IS WILL THERE BE ENOUGH FORCING
FOR ASCENT TO UNLEASH THIS STRONG INSTABILITY. MIXED SIGNALS WITHIN
THE GUIDANCE WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF NOT GENERATING MUCH QPF TONIGHT
WHILE THE HI RES GUID NMM AND ARW HAVE CONVECTION BUT WEAKENING AS
IT CROSSES THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST. SOMEWHAT DISCOUNTING THE NAM
GIVEN IT/S HIGH BIASED DEW PTS AND CORRESPONDING INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS.

THUS LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
CONVECTION. HOWEVER IF STORMS CAN FIRE STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS WILL
BE A CONCERN. LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS IMPRESSIVE TOO ALONG WITH
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND LOW LCLS /HIGH DEW PTS/ FOR A LOW RISK OF
AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

IT WILL BE A WARM AND HUMID NIGHT WITH DEW PTS RISING THROUGH THE
U60S AND L70S.

TUESDAY...

FORECAST UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES AS AREAL COVERAGE OF NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION AND CLOUD DEBRIS FROM TONIGHT WILL IMPACT IF NEW
CONVECTION FIRES DURING THE DAY TUES. SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA ALONG WITH ATTENDING SURFACE TROUGH. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE
ENOUGH FORCING FOR ASCENT TO INITIATE CONVECTION. DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE FOCUSED ACROSS RI AND EASTERN
MA. THUS RISK OF STORMS GREATEST ACROSS THIS AREA. WINDS FIELDS
REMAIN IMPRESSIVE SO RISK OF STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS CONTINUES.

ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S ALONG WITH DEW PTS IN
THE U60S TO L70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE AROUND FRIDAY
* TEMPERATURES TRENDING BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN DESCENT AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER JAMES BAY WILL BEGIN ITS EASTWARD
MOVEMENT TOWARDS THE MARITIMES. ELONGATED TROUGH WILL SET UP OVER
THE REGION BEFORE TRENDING TOWARDS A ZONAL FLOW. SEVERAL SOUTHERN
STREAM WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH AND TRIES TO BRING A FEW COASTAL
SYSTEMS TOWARDS SNE. THE PATTERN DOES NOT SEEM THAT AMPLIFIED TO
MAKE IT A CLASSIC COASTAL LOW...HOWEVER UPPER LEVEL JET MAY BRING A
FEW SYSTEMS JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY AT
THE END OF THE WEEK...TRENDED TOWARDS THE ENSEMBLES WHICH INDICATE
PRECIP AROUND LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AND AGAIN POSSIBLE
SATURDAY/SUNDAY. THIS UNSEASONABLE PATTERN WILL LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS AS COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR CYCLONIC FLOW AND
COLD AIR ALOFT...RESULTING IN A FEW AFTERNOON INSTABILITY SHOWERS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE A MIX OF CLOUDS AND
SUNSHINE.

CYCLONIC FLOW WILL STILL BE ALOFT BY THURSDAY BUT COLD AIR ALOFT
WILL BE FOCUS MORE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THEREFORE BELIEVE
THURSDAY WILL BE DRY WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL BOTH DAYS WITH SNE REACHING
INTO THE 80S ON WEDNESDAYS BUT BELOW 80 ON THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL TRY TO DEVELOP A SOUTHERN WAVE DURING THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK. BOTH ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AS WELL AS THE OPERATIONS
EC BRINGS PRECIP TO THE REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THEREFORE
HAVE INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST WHERE
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST. SNE WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THIS
SYSTEM SO ANY SHIFT IN THE PATTERN WILL MOVE THE PRECIP CHC FOR THE
REGION. FINALLY BEING ON THE NORTH-SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE UNSEASONABLE COOLER. IN FACT TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO
GET ABOVE 80F.

SATURDAY AND BEYOND...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE TRIES TO DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON IF THE PATTERN WILL BRING THIS LOW TO SNE. HAVE KEPT A
LOW CHC AS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FLIP-FLOP DURING THE TIMEFRAME.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE OVER THE WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CONUS BEGINS TO BUILD
AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TODAY...VFR AND DRY WEATHER FOR MOST TERMINALS. PATCHY IFR IN FOG
AND STRATUS WILL BURN OFF WITHIN THE HOUR. ALSO T-STORMS IN NY
STATE THIS AFTERNOON MAY CLIP WESTERN MA LATE IN THE DAY. SSW
WINDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KT POSSIBLE.
MODERATE TO HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
POTENTIAL T-STORMS. THUS LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST HERE. VFR TO
START BUT LOWERING TO MVFR AND PROBABLY IFR IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
ACROSS RI AND SOUTHEAST MA.

TUESDAY...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
POTENTIAL T-STORMS. THUS LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST HERE. A MIX OF
MVFR AND IFR IN THE MORNING AS LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IMPACT THE
TERMINALS. LIKELY IMPROVING TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TODAY THEN LOWERING TONIGHT
AND TUE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TODAY THEN LOWERING TONIGHT
AND TUE.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. COULD SEE MVFR IN
SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND
MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE BUT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN. LATEST INDICATIONS ARE
THAT BEST CHANCE FOR WET WEATHER WILL BE ON FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...

SSW WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. SEAS
INCREASE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH COASTAL WATERS. PATCHY FOG AND
DRIZZLE IMPACT THE SOUTH WATERS THIS MORNING. IMPROVING THIS
AFTERNOON. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...

SSW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. GUSTS UP TO 25 KT POSSIBLE. PATCHY FOG WILL
LIMIT VSBY. A FEW STRONG T-STORMS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LOW CONFIDENCE ON T-STORM FORECAST.

TUESDAY...

SSW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT POSSIBLE. PATCHY
MORNING FOG MAY REDUCE VSBY. A FEW STRONG T-STORMS POSSIBLE. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON T-STORM FORECAST.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. W/SW WINDS BELOW SCA BUT GUSTS TO
20 KT POSSIBLE. SEAS SUBSIDING.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DEPEND ON
TRACK AND TIMING OF LOW PRES APPROACHING THE REGION. COULD SEE A
PERIOD OF GUSTY NE WINDS...ESPECIALLY FRI.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...NOCERA/DUNTEN
MARINE...NOCERA/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 031103
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
703 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER PREVAILS MUCH OF TODAY THEN THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS THIS EVENING INTO TUE. DRY...WARM AND LESS
HUMID WEATHER ARRIVES WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY. A
PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE TIMING OF POTENTIAL WET
WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

700 AM UPDATE...

OVERALL TREND IN THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THIS MORNING.
SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPS SOUTH OF NANTUCKET THIS MORNING IN WAKE OF A
STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL JET AND INCREASING 925 MB MOISTURE.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS JET CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN.

OTHERWISE FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST HOUR ACROSS LOW LYING
REGIONS. THIS WILL DISSIPATE WITHIN THE HOUR AS TEMPS BEGIN TO
SOAR INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. STRATUS WILL ALSO BREAK UP
WITHIN THE HOUR SO AM NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IMPACT ON TERMINALS.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

QUITE THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE OH VLY.
MODELS APPEAR TO BE SIMULATING THIS CONVECTION FAIRLY WELL SO
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH REGARDING TODAY/S FORECAST FOR SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT LEAD SHORT WAVE OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WILL EJECT NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN NY STATE TODAY AND
THEN INTO NORTHERN VT AND ST LWRN RVR VLY THEREAFTER. THIS RESULTS
IN LITTLE IF ANY HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY.
THUS SHOULD BE ENOUGH EAST COAST RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL
DRY AIR TO PRECLUDE ANY STORMS FROM FORMING OR TRACKING INTO THE
AREA. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS ACROSS WESTERN MA...CLOSER TO THE JET
ENERGY/MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AXIS. THEREFORE THERE IS A LOW RISK
FOR A FEW STORMS LATE IN THE DAY TO POSSIBLY CLIP WESTERN MA.
OTHERWISE REMAINDER OF THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

SOUTH-SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS RESULTED IN DEW PTS RISING
OVERNIGHT INTO THE 60S TO AROUND 70 ACROSS RI AND SOUTHEAST MA.
THUS MORE HUMID THAN YESTERDAY. WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL RESULT IN TEMPS MAKING A RUN AT 90 AWAY FROM THE SOUTH COAST.
THEREFORE MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE HIGHS TODAY 85 TO 90. AN
INCREASING SSW WIND OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON WILL HELP TAKE SOME OF THE EDGE OFF THE WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
*** POSSIBLE STRONG TO SEVERE T-STORMS LATER TONIGHT INTO TUE ***

TONIGHT...

MORE POTENT TRAILING SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND FROM THE WEST. THIS IS QUITE EVIDENT IN WIND FIELDS ALOFT
WHERE 500 MB SPEEDS APPROACH 50 KTS! THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH COOLS H5
TEMPS TO -11C/-12C. THIS COMBINED WITH SURFACE DEW PTS INCREASING
INTO THE U60S AND L70S PROVIDES MUCAPES GREATER THAN 2000J/KG AND
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 6.5 AND 7.0C/KM BY 12Z TUE ACROSS RI
AND EASTERN MA PER 00Z EC AND 00Z GFS! EVEN THE COURSE 00Z GEFS HAS
THE SAME SIGNAL AND STRENGTH. THIS AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY COMBINED
WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR UP TO 50 KT PROVIDES AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE
FOR SEVERE STORMS. ONLY UNCERTAINTY IS WILL THERE BE ENOUGH FORCING
FOR ASCENT TO UNLEASH THIS STRONG INSTABILITY. MIXED SIGNALS WITHIN
THE GUIDANCE WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF NOT GENERATING MUCH QPF TONIGHT
WHILE THE HI RES GUID NMM AND ARW HAVE CONVECTION BUT WEAKENING AS
IT CROSSES THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST. SOMEWHAT DISCOUNTING THE NAM
GIVEN IT/S HIGH BIASED DEW PTS AND CORRESPONDING INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS.

THUS LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
CONVECTION. HOWEVER IF STORMS CAN FIRE STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS WILL
BE A CONCERN. LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS IMPRESSIVE TOO ALONG WITH
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND LOW LCLS /HIGH DEW PTS/ FOR A LOW RISK OF
AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

IT WILL BE A WARM AND HUMID NIGHT WITH DEW PTS RISING THROUGH THE
U60S AND L70S.

TUESDAY...

FORECAST UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES AS AREAL COVERAGE OF NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION AND CLOUD DEBRIS FROM TONIGHT WILL IMPACT IF NEW
CONVECTION FIRES DURING THE DAY TUES. SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA ALONG WITH ATTENDING SURFACE TROUGH. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE
ENOUGH FORCING FOR ASCENT TO INITIATE CONVECTION. DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE FOCUSED ACROSS RI AND EASTERN
MA. THUS RISK OF STORMS GREATEST ACROSS THIS AREA. WINDS FIELDS
REMAIN IMPRESSIVE SO RISK OF STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS CONTINUES.

ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S ALONG WITH DEW PTS IN
THE U60S TO L70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE AROUND FRIDAY
* TEMPERATURES TRENDING BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN DESCENT AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER JAMES BAY WILL BEGIN ITS EASTWARD
MOVEMENT TOWARDS THE MARITIMES. ELONGATED TROUGH WILL SET UP OVER
THE REGION BEFORE TRENDING TOWARDS A ZONAL FLOW. SEVERAL SOUTHERN
STREAM WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH AND TRIES TO BRING A FEW COASTAL
SYSTEMS TOWARDS SNE. THE PATTERN DOES NOT SEEM THAT AMPLIFIED TO
MAKE IT A CLASSIC COASTAL LOW...HOWEVER UPPER LEVEL JET MAY BRING A
FEW SYSTEMS JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY AT
THE END OF THE WEEK...TRENDED TOWARDS THE ENSEMBLES WHICH INDICATE
PRECIP AROUND LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AND AGAIN POSSIBLE
SATURDAY/SUNDAY. THIS UNSEASONABLE PATTERN WILL LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS AS COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR CYCLONIC FLOW AND
COLD AIR ALOFT...RESULTING IN A FEW AFTERNOON INSTABILITY SHOWERS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE A MIX OF CLOUDS AND
SUNSHINE.

CYCLONIC FLOW WILL STILL BE ALOFT BY THURSDAY BUT COLD AIR ALOFT
WILL BE FOCUS MORE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THEREFORE BELIEVE
THURSDAY WILL BE DRY WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL BOTH DAYS WITH SNE REACHING
INTO THE 80S ON WEDNESDAYS BUT BELOW 80 ON THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL TRY TO DEVELOP A SOUTHERN WAVE DURING THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK. BOTH ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AS WELL AS THE OPERATIONS
EC BRINGS PRECIP TO THE REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THEREFORE
HAVE INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST WHERE
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST. SNE WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THIS
SYSTEM SO ANY SHIFT IN THE PATTERN WILL MOVE THE PRECIP CHC FOR THE
REGION. FINALLY BEING ON THE NORTH-SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE UNSEASONABLE COOLER. IN FACT TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO
GET ABOVE 80F.

SATURDAY AND BEYOND...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE TRIES TO DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON IF THE PATTERN WILL BRING THIS LOW TO SNE. HAVE KEPT A
LOW CHC AS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FLIP-FLOP DURING THE TIMEFRAME.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE OVER THE WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CONUS BEGINS TO BUILD
AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TODAY...VFR AND DRY WEATHER FOR MOST TERMINALS. PATCHY IFR IN FOG
AND STRATUS WILL BURN OFF WITHIN THE HOUR. ALSO T-STORMS IN NY
STATE THIS AFTERNOON MAY CLIP WESTERN MA LATE IN THE DAY. SSW
WINDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KT POSSIBLE.
MODERATE TO HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
POTENTIAL T-STORMS. THUS LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST HERE. VFR TO
START BUT LOWERING TO MVFR AND PROBABLY IFR IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
ACROSS RI AND SOUTHEAST MA.

TUESDAY...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
POTENTIAL T-STORMS. THUS LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST HERE. A MIX OF
MVFR AND IFR IN THE MORNING AS LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IMPACT THE
TERMINALS. LIKELY IMPROVING TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TODAY THEN LOWERING TONIGHT
AND TUE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TODAY THEN LOWERING TONIGHT
AND TUE.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. COULD SEE MVFR IN
SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND
MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE BUT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN. LATEST INDICATIONS ARE
THAT BEST CHANCE FOR WET WEATHER WILL BE ON FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...

SSW WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. SEAS
INCREASE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH COASTAL WATERS. PATCHY FOG AND
DRIZZLE IMPACT THE SOUTH WATERS THIS MORNING. IMPROVING THIS
AFTERNOON. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...

SSW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. GUSTS UP TO 25 KT POSSIBLE. PATCHY FOG WILL
LIMIT VSBY. A FEW STRONG T-STORMS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LOW CONFIDENCE ON T-STORM FORECAST.

TUESDAY...

SSW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT POSSIBLE. PATCHY
MORNING FOG MAY REDUCE VSBY. A FEW STRONG T-STORMS POSSIBLE. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON T-STORM FORECAST.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. W/SW WINDS BELOW SCA BUT GUSTS TO
20 KT POSSIBLE. SEAS SUBSIDING.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DEPEND ON
TRACK AND TIMING OF LOW PRES APPROACHING THE REGION. COULD SEE A
PERIOD OF GUSTY NE WINDS...ESPECIALLY FRI.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...NOCERA/DUNTEN
MARINE...NOCERA/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 031103
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
703 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER PREVAILS MUCH OF TODAY THEN THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS THIS EVENING INTO TUE. DRY...WARM AND LESS
HUMID WEATHER ARRIVES WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY. A
PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE TIMING OF POTENTIAL WET
WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

700 AM UPDATE...

OVERALL TREND IN THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THIS MORNING.
SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPS SOUTH OF NANTUCKET THIS MORNING IN WAKE OF A
STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL JET AND INCREASING 925 MB MOISTURE.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS JET CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN.

OTHERWISE FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST HOUR ACROSS LOW LYING
REGIONS. THIS WILL DISSIPATE WITHIN THE HOUR AS TEMPS BEGIN TO
SOAR INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. STRATUS WILL ALSO BREAK UP
WITHIN THE HOUR SO AM NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IMPACT ON TERMINALS.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

QUITE THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE OH VLY.
MODELS APPEAR TO BE SIMULATING THIS CONVECTION FAIRLY WELL SO
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH REGARDING TODAY/S FORECAST FOR SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT LEAD SHORT WAVE OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WILL EJECT NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN NY STATE TODAY AND
THEN INTO NORTHERN VT AND ST LWRN RVR VLY THEREAFTER. THIS RESULTS
IN LITTLE IF ANY HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY.
THUS SHOULD BE ENOUGH EAST COAST RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL
DRY AIR TO PRECLUDE ANY STORMS FROM FORMING OR TRACKING INTO THE
AREA. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS ACROSS WESTERN MA...CLOSER TO THE JET
ENERGY/MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AXIS. THEREFORE THERE IS A LOW RISK
FOR A FEW STORMS LATE IN THE DAY TO POSSIBLY CLIP WESTERN MA.
OTHERWISE REMAINDER OF THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

SOUTH-SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS RESULTED IN DEW PTS RISING
OVERNIGHT INTO THE 60S TO AROUND 70 ACROSS RI AND SOUTHEAST MA.
THUS MORE HUMID THAN YESTERDAY. WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL RESULT IN TEMPS MAKING A RUN AT 90 AWAY FROM THE SOUTH COAST.
THEREFORE MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE HIGHS TODAY 85 TO 90. AN
INCREASING SSW WIND OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON WILL HELP TAKE SOME OF THE EDGE OFF THE WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
*** POSSIBLE STRONG TO SEVERE T-STORMS LATER TONIGHT INTO TUE ***

TONIGHT...

MORE POTENT TRAILING SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND FROM THE WEST. THIS IS QUITE EVIDENT IN WIND FIELDS ALOFT
WHERE 500 MB SPEEDS APPROACH 50 KTS! THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH COOLS H5
TEMPS TO -11C/-12C. THIS COMBINED WITH SURFACE DEW PTS INCREASING
INTO THE U60S AND L70S PROVIDES MUCAPES GREATER THAN 2000J/KG AND
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 6.5 AND 7.0C/KM BY 12Z TUE ACROSS RI
AND EASTERN MA PER 00Z EC AND 00Z GFS! EVEN THE COURSE 00Z GEFS HAS
THE SAME SIGNAL AND STRENGTH. THIS AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY COMBINED
WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR UP TO 50 KT PROVIDES AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE
FOR SEVERE STORMS. ONLY UNCERTAINTY IS WILL THERE BE ENOUGH FORCING
FOR ASCENT TO UNLEASH THIS STRONG INSTABILITY. MIXED SIGNALS WITHIN
THE GUIDANCE WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF NOT GENERATING MUCH QPF TONIGHT
WHILE THE HI RES GUID NMM AND ARW HAVE CONVECTION BUT WEAKENING AS
IT CROSSES THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST. SOMEWHAT DISCOUNTING THE NAM
GIVEN IT/S HIGH BIASED DEW PTS AND CORRESPONDING INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS.

THUS LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
CONVECTION. HOWEVER IF STORMS CAN FIRE STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS WILL
BE A CONCERN. LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS IMPRESSIVE TOO ALONG WITH
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND LOW LCLS /HIGH DEW PTS/ FOR A LOW RISK OF
AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

IT WILL BE A WARM AND HUMID NIGHT WITH DEW PTS RISING THROUGH THE
U60S AND L70S.

TUESDAY...

FORECAST UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES AS AREAL COVERAGE OF NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION AND CLOUD DEBRIS FROM TONIGHT WILL IMPACT IF NEW
CONVECTION FIRES DURING THE DAY TUES. SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA ALONG WITH ATTENDING SURFACE TROUGH. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE
ENOUGH FORCING FOR ASCENT TO INITIATE CONVECTION. DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE FOCUSED ACROSS RI AND EASTERN
MA. THUS RISK OF STORMS GREATEST ACROSS THIS AREA. WINDS FIELDS
REMAIN IMPRESSIVE SO RISK OF STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS CONTINUES.

ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S ALONG WITH DEW PTS IN
THE U60S TO L70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE AROUND FRIDAY
* TEMPERATURES TRENDING BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN DESCENT AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER JAMES BAY WILL BEGIN ITS EASTWARD
MOVEMENT TOWARDS THE MARITIMES. ELONGATED TROUGH WILL SET UP OVER
THE REGION BEFORE TRENDING TOWARDS A ZONAL FLOW. SEVERAL SOUTHERN
STREAM WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH AND TRIES TO BRING A FEW COASTAL
SYSTEMS TOWARDS SNE. THE PATTERN DOES NOT SEEM THAT AMPLIFIED TO
MAKE IT A CLASSIC COASTAL LOW...HOWEVER UPPER LEVEL JET MAY BRING A
FEW SYSTEMS JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY AT
THE END OF THE WEEK...TRENDED TOWARDS THE ENSEMBLES WHICH INDICATE
PRECIP AROUND LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AND AGAIN POSSIBLE
SATURDAY/SUNDAY. THIS UNSEASONABLE PATTERN WILL LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS AS COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR CYCLONIC FLOW AND
COLD AIR ALOFT...RESULTING IN A FEW AFTERNOON INSTABILITY SHOWERS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE A MIX OF CLOUDS AND
SUNSHINE.

CYCLONIC FLOW WILL STILL BE ALOFT BY THURSDAY BUT COLD AIR ALOFT
WILL BE FOCUS MORE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THEREFORE BELIEVE
THURSDAY WILL BE DRY WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL BOTH DAYS WITH SNE REACHING
INTO THE 80S ON WEDNESDAYS BUT BELOW 80 ON THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL TRY TO DEVELOP A SOUTHERN WAVE DURING THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK. BOTH ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AS WELL AS THE OPERATIONS
EC BRINGS PRECIP TO THE REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THEREFORE
HAVE INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST WHERE
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST. SNE WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THIS
SYSTEM SO ANY SHIFT IN THE PATTERN WILL MOVE THE PRECIP CHC FOR THE
REGION. FINALLY BEING ON THE NORTH-SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE UNSEASONABLE COOLER. IN FACT TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO
GET ABOVE 80F.

SATURDAY AND BEYOND...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE TRIES TO DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON IF THE PATTERN WILL BRING THIS LOW TO SNE. HAVE KEPT A
LOW CHC AS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FLIP-FLOP DURING THE TIMEFRAME.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE OVER THE WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CONUS BEGINS TO BUILD
AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TODAY...VFR AND DRY WEATHER FOR MOST TERMINALS. PATCHY IFR IN FOG
AND STRATUS WILL BURN OFF WITHIN THE HOUR. ALSO T-STORMS IN NY
STATE THIS AFTERNOON MAY CLIP WESTERN MA LATE IN THE DAY. SSW
WINDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KT POSSIBLE.
MODERATE TO HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
POTENTIAL T-STORMS. THUS LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST HERE. VFR TO
START BUT LOWERING TO MVFR AND PROBABLY IFR IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
ACROSS RI AND SOUTHEAST MA.

TUESDAY...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
POTENTIAL T-STORMS. THUS LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST HERE. A MIX OF
MVFR AND IFR IN THE MORNING AS LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IMPACT THE
TERMINALS. LIKELY IMPROVING TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TODAY THEN LOWERING TONIGHT
AND TUE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TODAY THEN LOWERING TONIGHT
AND TUE.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. COULD SEE MVFR IN
SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND
MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE BUT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN. LATEST INDICATIONS ARE
THAT BEST CHANCE FOR WET WEATHER WILL BE ON FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...

SSW WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. SEAS
INCREASE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH COASTAL WATERS. PATCHY FOG AND
DRIZZLE IMPACT THE SOUTH WATERS THIS MORNING. IMPROVING THIS
AFTERNOON. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...

SSW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. GUSTS UP TO 25 KT POSSIBLE. PATCHY FOG WILL
LIMIT VSBY. A FEW STRONG T-STORMS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LOW CONFIDENCE ON T-STORM FORECAST.

TUESDAY...

SSW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT POSSIBLE. PATCHY
MORNING FOG MAY REDUCE VSBY. A FEW STRONG T-STORMS POSSIBLE. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON T-STORM FORECAST.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. W/SW WINDS BELOW SCA BUT GUSTS TO
20 KT POSSIBLE. SEAS SUBSIDING.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DEPEND ON
TRACK AND TIMING OF LOW PRES APPROACHING THE REGION. COULD SEE A
PERIOD OF GUSTY NE WINDS...ESPECIALLY FRI.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...NOCERA/DUNTEN
MARINE...NOCERA/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 031103
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
703 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER PREVAILS MUCH OF TODAY THEN THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS THIS EVENING INTO TUE. DRY...WARM AND LESS
HUMID WEATHER ARRIVES WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY. A
PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE TIMING OF POTENTIAL WET
WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

700 AM UPDATE...

OVERALL TREND IN THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THIS MORNING.
SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPS SOUTH OF NANTUCKET THIS MORNING IN WAKE OF A
STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL JET AND INCREASING 925 MB MOISTURE.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS JET CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN.

OTHERWISE FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST HOUR ACROSS LOW LYING
REGIONS. THIS WILL DISSIPATE WITHIN THE HOUR AS TEMPS BEGIN TO
SOAR INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. STRATUS WILL ALSO BREAK UP
WITHIN THE HOUR SO AM NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IMPACT ON TERMINALS.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

QUITE THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE OH VLY.
MODELS APPEAR TO BE SIMULATING THIS CONVECTION FAIRLY WELL SO
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH REGARDING TODAY/S FORECAST FOR SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT LEAD SHORT WAVE OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WILL EJECT NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN NY STATE TODAY AND
THEN INTO NORTHERN VT AND ST LWRN RVR VLY THEREAFTER. THIS RESULTS
IN LITTLE IF ANY HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY.
THUS SHOULD BE ENOUGH EAST COAST RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL
DRY AIR TO PRECLUDE ANY STORMS FROM FORMING OR TRACKING INTO THE
AREA. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS ACROSS WESTERN MA...CLOSER TO THE JET
ENERGY/MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AXIS. THEREFORE THERE IS A LOW RISK
FOR A FEW STORMS LATE IN THE DAY TO POSSIBLY CLIP WESTERN MA.
OTHERWISE REMAINDER OF THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

SOUTH-SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS RESULTED IN DEW PTS RISING
OVERNIGHT INTO THE 60S TO AROUND 70 ACROSS RI AND SOUTHEAST MA.
THUS MORE HUMID THAN YESTERDAY. WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL RESULT IN TEMPS MAKING A RUN AT 90 AWAY FROM THE SOUTH COAST.
THEREFORE MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE HIGHS TODAY 85 TO 90. AN
INCREASING SSW WIND OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON WILL HELP TAKE SOME OF THE EDGE OFF THE WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
*** POSSIBLE STRONG TO SEVERE T-STORMS LATER TONIGHT INTO TUE ***

TONIGHT...

MORE POTENT TRAILING SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND FROM THE WEST. THIS IS QUITE EVIDENT IN WIND FIELDS ALOFT
WHERE 500 MB SPEEDS APPROACH 50 KTS! THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH COOLS H5
TEMPS TO -11C/-12C. THIS COMBINED WITH SURFACE DEW PTS INCREASING
INTO THE U60S AND L70S PROVIDES MUCAPES GREATER THAN 2000J/KG AND
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 6.5 AND 7.0C/KM BY 12Z TUE ACROSS RI
AND EASTERN MA PER 00Z EC AND 00Z GFS! EVEN THE COURSE 00Z GEFS HAS
THE SAME SIGNAL AND STRENGTH. THIS AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY COMBINED
WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR UP TO 50 KT PROVIDES AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE
FOR SEVERE STORMS. ONLY UNCERTAINTY IS WILL THERE BE ENOUGH FORCING
FOR ASCENT TO UNLEASH THIS STRONG INSTABILITY. MIXED SIGNALS WITHIN
THE GUIDANCE WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF NOT GENERATING MUCH QPF TONIGHT
WHILE THE HI RES GUID NMM AND ARW HAVE CONVECTION BUT WEAKENING AS
IT CROSSES THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST. SOMEWHAT DISCOUNTING THE NAM
GIVEN IT/S HIGH BIASED DEW PTS AND CORRESPONDING INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS.

THUS LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
CONVECTION. HOWEVER IF STORMS CAN FIRE STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS WILL
BE A CONCERN. LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS IMPRESSIVE TOO ALONG WITH
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND LOW LCLS /HIGH DEW PTS/ FOR A LOW RISK OF
AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

IT WILL BE A WARM AND HUMID NIGHT WITH DEW PTS RISING THROUGH THE
U60S AND L70S.

TUESDAY...

FORECAST UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES AS AREAL COVERAGE OF NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION AND CLOUD DEBRIS FROM TONIGHT WILL IMPACT IF NEW
CONVECTION FIRES DURING THE DAY TUES. SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA ALONG WITH ATTENDING SURFACE TROUGH. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE
ENOUGH FORCING FOR ASCENT TO INITIATE CONVECTION. DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE FOCUSED ACROSS RI AND EASTERN
MA. THUS RISK OF STORMS GREATEST ACROSS THIS AREA. WINDS FIELDS
REMAIN IMPRESSIVE SO RISK OF STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS CONTINUES.

ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S ALONG WITH DEW PTS IN
THE U60S TO L70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE AROUND FRIDAY
* TEMPERATURES TRENDING BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN DESCENT AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER JAMES BAY WILL BEGIN ITS EASTWARD
MOVEMENT TOWARDS THE MARITIMES. ELONGATED TROUGH WILL SET UP OVER
THE REGION BEFORE TRENDING TOWARDS A ZONAL FLOW. SEVERAL SOUTHERN
STREAM WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH AND TRIES TO BRING A FEW COASTAL
SYSTEMS TOWARDS SNE. THE PATTERN DOES NOT SEEM THAT AMPLIFIED TO
MAKE IT A CLASSIC COASTAL LOW...HOWEVER UPPER LEVEL JET MAY BRING A
FEW SYSTEMS JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY AT
THE END OF THE WEEK...TRENDED TOWARDS THE ENSEMBLES WHICH INDICATE
PRECIP AROUND LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AND AGAIN POSSIBLE
SATURDAY/SUNDAY. THIS UNSEASONABLE PATTERN WILL LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS AS COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR CYCLONIC FLOW AND
COLD AIR ALOFT...RESULTING IN A FEW AFTERNOON INSTABILITY SHOWERS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE A MIX OF CLOUDS AND
SUNSHINE.

CYCLONIC FLOW WILL STILL BE ALOFT BY THURSDAY BUT COLD AIR ALOFT
WILL BE FOCUS MORE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THEREFORE BELIEVE
THURSDAY WILL BE DRY WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL BOTH DAYS WITH SNE REACHING
INTO THE 80S ON WEDNESDAYS BUT BELOW 80 ON THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL TRY TO DEVELOP A SOUTHERN WAVE DURING THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK. BOTH ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AS WELL AS THE OPERATIONS
EC BRINGS PRECIP TO THE REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THEREFORE
HAVE INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST WHERE
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST. SNE WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THIS
SYSTEM SO ANY SHIFT IN THE PATTERN WILL MOVE THE PRECIP CHC FOR THE
REGION. FINALLY BEING ON THE NORTH-SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE UNSEASONABLE COOLER. IN FACT TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO
GET ABOVE 80F.

SATURDAY AND BEYOND...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE TRIES TO DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON IF THE PATTERN WILL BRING THIS LOW TO SNE. HAVE KEPT A
LOW CHC AS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FLIP-FLOP DURING THE TIMEFRAME.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE OVER THE WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CONUS BEGINS TO BUILD
AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TODAY...VFR AND DRY WEATHER FOR MOST TERMINALS. PATCHY IFR IN FOG
AND STRATUS WILL BURN OFF WITHIN THE HOUR. ALSO T-STORMS IN NY
STATE THIS AFTERNOON MAY CLIP WESTERN MA LATE IN THE DAY. SSW
WINDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KT POSSIBLE.
MODERATE TO HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
POTENTIAL T-STORMS. THUS LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST HERE. VFR TO
START BUT LOWERING TO MVFR AND PROBABLY IFR IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
ACROSS RI AND SOUTHEAST MA.

TUESDAY...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
POTENTIAL T-STORMS. THUS LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST HERE. A MIX OF
MVFR AND IFR IN THE MORNING AS LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IMPACT THE
TERMINALS. LIKELY IMPROVING TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TODAY THEN LOWERING TONIGHT
AND TUE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TODAY THEN LOWERING TONIGHT
AND TUE.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. COULD SEE MVFR IN
SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND
MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE BUT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN. LATEST INDICATIONS ARE
THAT BEST CHANCE FOR WET WEATHER WILL BE ON FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...

SSW WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. SEAS
INCREASE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH COASTAL WATERS. PATCHY FOG AND
DRIZZLE IMPACT THE SOUTH WATERS THIS MORNING. IMPROVING THIS
AFTERNOON. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...

SSW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. GUSTS UP TO 25 KT POSSIBLE. PATCHY FOG WILL
LIMIT VSBY. A FEW STRONG T-STORMS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LOW CONFIDENCE ON T-STORM FORECAST.

TUESDAY...

SSW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT POSSIBLE. PATCHY
MORNING FOG MAY REDUCE VSBY. A FEW STRONG T-STORMS POSSIBLE. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON T-STORM FORECAST.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. W/SW WINDS BELOW SCA BUT GUSTS TO
20 KT POSSIBLE. SEAS SUBSIDING.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DEPEND ON
TRACK AND TIMING OF LOW PRES APPROACHING THE REGION. COULD SEE A
PERIOD OF GUSTY NE WINDS...ESPECIALLY FRI.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...NOCERA/DUNTEN
MARINE...NOCERA/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KALY 031049
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
649 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TODAY.  THERE IS A CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.  THE COLD FRONT
WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
ARRIVE FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
...SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...

AS OF 648 AM EDT...AN H500 CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO BE
NEAR NRN ONTARIO AND JAMES BAY THIS MORNING. SEVERAL SHORT-WAVES
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
FCST AREA THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ONE SHORT-WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
BASE OF THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATER
TODAY...AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AND OHIO
VALLEY.

AT THE SFC...A WEAK SFC CYCLONE OVER THE CNTRL/ERN GREAT LAKES
REGION IS MOVING TOWARDS SE ONTARIO THIS MORNING. THE FCST AREA
WILL BE IN A WARM SECTOR TODAY WITH SFC DEWPTS RISING INTO THE
U50S TO PERHAPS M60S. A PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH AHEAD OF THE MAIN
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS WRN-CNTRL NY LATE THIS MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO FIRE JUST AHEAD OR IN THE
PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH ZONE BTWN THE SFC TROUGH AND THE COLD FRONT.

THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A THREAT WILL INCREASE FOR
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
SOME SCT STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY REACH THE SRN
DACKS/W-CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY BTWN 2-5 PM...THEN MUCH OF ERN NY BTWN
5-8 PM INCLUDING THE CAPITAL REGION...AND THEN POTENTIALLY
SPREADING INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND BTWN 8-11 PM. THE LATEST HIRESWRF
REF PRODUCT CONTINUES THIS TREND...THOUGH THE HRRR IS A LITTLE
FASTER. THE 4-KM WPC SPC WRF ACTUALLY HAS SOME CONVECTION FIRE
WITH AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NEAR THE LAKE GEORGE REGION AROUND 2-4
PM. WE ARE GOING TO STICK CLOSER TO THE HIRESWRF FOR THE TIMING AT
THIS POINT.

THE BEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE OVER THE FCST AREA IN THE
EARLY TO MID PM BASED ON THE GFS/NAM. THESE LAPSE RATES WILL BE IN
THE 6.5-7+C/KM RANGE. THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE
INSTABILITY PROFILES BTWN THE NAM/GFS. THE NAM IS ON THE HIGHER
END WITH SBCAPES OF ROUGHLY 1000-2000 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
SFC DEWPTS. THE GFS HAS ONLY SBCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER POCKETS. THE SFC DEWPTS ARE LOWER ON THE GFS. THE
SFC TO BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE FROM THE S/SW DURING THE DAY. THE
0-6 KM BULK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES INCREASE TO 35-45 KTS
DURING THE PM. SOME DEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE. MULTICELLS OR MULTICELL
LINES LOOK POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WITH THE UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND
PROFILES IN THE BUFKIT SOUNDS. SOME BOWING ELEMENTS/WET MICROBURSTS
MAY OCCUR...AS INVERTED-V PROFILES ARE ALSO EVIDENT IN THE
SOUNDINGS. DAMAGING WINDS LOOK LIKE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AS THE SECONDARY THREAT.  ACTUALLY H850
TEMPS INCREASE TO +15C TO +19C OVER THE FCST AREA. HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH THE M80S TO LOWER 90S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND
M70S TO L80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE BETTER UPPER JET DYNAMICS ARRIVE TOWARDS NIGHTFALL...BUT
DECENT UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OCCURS OVER ERN NY PRIOR TO THEN.
PWATS DO INCREASE TO 1.25-1.50+ INCHES OVER MOST OF THE
REGION...SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE. WE WILL
CONTINUE THE TREND FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN THE ZONES/GRIDS
TO PHRASE THAT SOME STORMS MAYBE SEVERE IN THE MID PM TO LATE PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE DEGREE OF HOW WIDESPREAD THE SEVERE WEATHER MAY
POTENTIALLY BE WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAST THE UPPER IMPULSE AND COLD
FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...SINCE THE INSTABILITY MAY POSSIBLY
BE WANING. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
ARRIVE TOWARDS SUNSET...AN IMPRESSIVE CYCLONICALLY CURVED JET
STREAK AT H250 OF 85-95 KTS WILL PASS WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY. ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND WILL BE NEAR THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE JET STREAK. SOME ENHANCEMENT TO THE CONVECTION MAY
OCCUR...AND SOME OF THE MULTICELLS MAY GET INTO WRN ENGLAND. THERE
MAYBE AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL OR TWO CLOSER TO THE BETTER DEEP
SHEAR...WHICH LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE NORTH OF THE I-90 CORRIDOR AT
THIS POINT. HIGH CHC AND LIKELY POPS WERE MAINTAINED AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT...AS IT SAGS E/SE ACROSS THE FCST AREA. SOME HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT THE PWATS DO NOT LOOK HIGHLY
ANOMALOUS AT THIS POINT /AROUND A STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL/. THE
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD START AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER.
AT THIS POINT IT IS HARD TO TELL IF A WIDESPREAD OR MAJOR EVENT
WILL OCCUR FOR THE REGION....BUT WE AGREE WITH SPC AND HAVE AT
LEAST MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR SOME SEVERE IN THE FCST AREA. LOWS
MON NIGHT WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE WITH MID AND U60S FROM THE
EASTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE LAKE GEORGE REGION
SOUTH AND EAST...AND U50S AND L60S NORTH AND WEST.

TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR WRN NEW ENGLAND BY
DAYBREAK. THE SFC DEWPT BOUNDARY WILL STILL BE PROGRESSING EAST
ACROSS ERN NY. THE NAM IS ADVERTISING ALOT OF INSTABILITY FOR TUE
WITH A DEEPLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THE GFS HAS LESS AGAIN...BUT
THERE IS A SMALL AREA OF HIGH INSTABILITY FROM THE THE MASS PIKE
SOUTH AND EAST INTO NW CT. SPC DOES HAVE LITCHFIELD CTY CLIPPED BY
THE MARGINAL RISK. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE AROUND 6.5C/KM
WITH ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR SOME STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL /NO ENHANCED WORDING YET/...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST. LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING
DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE PM. DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS OFF THE
ERN CATSKILLS/ERN DACKS MAY ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO GET INTO THE MID
AND U80S IN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION. EXPECT M70S TO
L80S IN MOST OTHER LOCATIONS...EXCEPT OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN
GREENS WHERE SOME U60S TO L70S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE COLD ADVECTION
REGIME...AS H850 TEMPS LOWER TO +10C TO +16C FROM NW TO SE OVER
THE FCST AREA BY THE LATE PM. A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SUNSET.

TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL HEATING THE SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY. THE ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS MAY LINGER THE LONGEST OVER THE SRN DACKS. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60F WITH SOME U40S TO L50S
OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN GREENS. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE QUITE
COMFORTABLE.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE FCST AREA WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER S-CNTRL QUEBEC. IN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW ANOTHER PIECE OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY WILL SWING ACROSS UPSTATE
NY AND NEW ENGLAND. THE BEST CHC OF ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS DUE TO THE
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. H500 TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -15C TO -18C FROM ALY
NORTH AND WEST. THE H500 HEIGHTS ARE ABOUT 2-3 STD DEVS BELOW
NORMAL BASED ON THE LATEST GEFS FOR WED. H850 TEMPS WILL BE 1-2
STD DEVS BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS ON WED WILL BE IN THE M60S TO L70S
OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS...WITH A FEW 80F
READINGS NEAR KPOU. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR COOL NIGHT FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF AUG...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE U40S TO M50S OVER
THE FCST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.

GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT SHOULD STALL TO OUR
SOUTH LATE IN THE WEEK SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE EXACT
LOCATION IS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION AT THIS TIME. GUIDANCE IS ALSO IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE IN THE WEEK LEAVING THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
NORTHEAST UNDER A LONGWAVE TROUGH THOUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS ARE ON HOW THEY HANDLE SHORT WAVE ENERGY
MOVING THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AND ITS IMPACTS THE POSITION OF THE
STALLED BOUNDARY AND THE STRENGTHEN OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT IS
EXPECTED TO FORM AND MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY. GUIDANCE HAVE NOT
BEEN SHOWING ANY CONSISTENCY. AT THIS TIME...THE OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE GFS
KEEPS THE BOUNDARY...LOW AND PRECIPITATION SHIELD TO OUR SOUTH WHILE THE
ECMWF BRINGS A SOAKING RAINFALL TO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
TO MAINLY TO AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90.

HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER TO MAINTAIN
FORECAST CONSISTENCY AND HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-90 LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AS FOR THE WEEKEND...HAVE MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCES
POPS SINCE THE TIMING OF ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVES IN HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE
TAF SITES AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH
CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR WITH THE CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT HAVE NOT BEEN INCLUDE
IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. HAVE ADDRESSED THE THREAT OF THE STORMS WITH
A PROB30 GROUP INCLUDING THUNDERSTORMS. FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT AS THE CLOUD COVER DECREASES AND WINDS LIGHTEN UP.

AT KALB...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AND ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY.
AT THE OTHER TAF SITES...A SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND WILL DEVELOP
WHICH WILL BECOME GUSTY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY. A LIGHTER
SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE STORMS AS WE HEAD INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU NIGHT-FRI: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TODAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE COLD
FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING...BUT AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
ARRIVE FOR WEDNESDAY.

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 40 TO 60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...AND
INCREASE TO 75 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO
35 TO 55 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH
TODAY...AND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH TONIGHT. THE WINDS
WILL BE FORM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH ON TUESDAY WITH
THE FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS RISE UP TO AROUND 1.5
INCHES AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO
SOME MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS. ALSO
SOME SHARP WITHIN BANK RISES WOULD BE EXPECTED ON STREAMS...CREEKS
AND SOME SMALL RIVERS.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES AND PASSES OVER THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY
RANGE FROM A TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS.

A TREND TOWARDS DRIER WEATHER WILL OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...AND
CONTINUE UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 031049
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
649 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TODAY.  THERE IS A CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.  THE COLD FRONT
WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
ARRIVE FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
...SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...

AS OF 648 AM EDT...AN H500 CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO BE
NEAR NRN ONTARIO AND JAMES BAY THIS MORNING. SEVERAL SHORT-WAVES
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
FCST AREA THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ONE SHORT-WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
BASE OF THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATER
TODAY...AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AND OHIO
VALLEY.

AT THE SFC...A WEAK SFC CYCLONE OVER THE CNTRL/ERN GREAT LAKES
REGION IS MOVING TOWARDS SE ONTARIO THIS MORNING. THE FCST AREA
WILL BE IN A WARM SECTOR TODAY WITH SFC DEWPTS RISING INTO THE
U50S TO PERHAPS M60S. A PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH AHEAD OF THE MAIN
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS WRN-CNTRL NY LATE THIS MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO FIRE JUST AHEAD OR IN THE
PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH ZONE BTWN THE SFC TROUGH AND THE COLD FRONT.

THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A THREAT WILL INCREASE FOR
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
SOME SCT STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY REACH THE SRN
DACKS/W-CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY BTWN 2-5 PM...THEN MUCH OF ERN NY BTWN
5-8 PM INCLUDING THE CAPITAL REGION...AND THEN POTENTIALLY
SPREADING INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND BTWN 8-11 PM. THE LATEST HIRESWRF
REF PRODUCT CONTINUES THIS TREND...THOUGH THE HRRR IS A LITTLE
FASTER. THE 4-KM WPC SPC WRF ACTUALLY HAS SOME CONVECTION FIRE
WITH AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NEAR THE LAKE GEORGE REGION AROUND 2-4
PM. WE ARE GOING TO STICK CLOSER TO THE HIRESWRF FOR THE TIMING AT
THIS POINT.

THE BEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE OVER THE FCST AREA IN THE
EARLY TO MID PM BASED ON THE GFS/NAM. THESE LAPSE RATES WILL BE IN
THE 6.5-7+C/KM RANGE. THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE
INSTABILITY PROFILES BTWN THE NAM/GFS. THE NAM IS ON THE HIGHER
END WITH SBCAPES OF ROUGHLY 1000-2000 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
SFC DEWPTS. THE GFS HAS ONLY SBCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER POCKETS. THE SFC DEWPTS ARE LOWER ON THE GFS. THE
SFC TO BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE FROM THE S/SW DURING THE DAY. THE
0-6 KM BULK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES INCREASE TO 35-45 KTS
DURING THE PM. SOME DEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE. MULTICELLS OR MULTICELL
LINES LOOK POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WITH THE UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND
PROFILES IN THE BUFKIT SOUNDS. SOME BOWING ELEMENTS/WET MICROBURSTS
MAY OCCUR...AS INVERTED-V PROFILES ARE ALSO EVIDENT IN THE
SOUNDINGS. DAMAGING WINDS LOOK LIKE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AS THE SECONDARY THREAT.  ACTUALLY H850
TEMPS INCREASE TO +15C TO +19C OVER THE FCST AREA. HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH THE M80S TO LOWER 90S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND
M70S TO L80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE BETTER UPPER JET DYNAMICS ARRIVE TOWARDS NIGHTFALL...BUT
DECENT UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OCCURS OVER ERN NY PRIOR TO THEN.
PWATS DO INCREASE TO 1.25-1.50+ INCHES OVER MOST OF THE
REGION...SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE. WE WILL
CONTINUE THE TREND FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN THE ZONES/GRIDS
TO PHRASE THAT SOME STORMS MAYBE SEVERE IN THE MID PM TO LATE PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE DEGREE OF HOW WIDESPREAD THE SEVERE WEATHER MAY
POTENTIALLY BE WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAST THE UPPER IMPULSE AND COLD
FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...SINCE THE INSTABILITY MAY POSSIBLY
BE WANING. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
ARRIVE TOWARDS SUNSET...AN IMPRESSIVE CYCLONICALLY CURVED JET
STREAK AT H250 OF 85-95 KTS WILL PASS WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY. ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND WILL BE NEAR THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE JET STREAK. SOME ENHANCEMENT TO THE CONVECTION MAY
OCCUR...AND SOME OF THE MULTICELLS MAY GET INTO WRN ENGLAND. THERE
MAYBE AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL OR TWO CLOSER TO THE BETTER DEEP
SHEAR...WHICH LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE NORTH OF THE I-90 CORRIDOR AT
THIS POINT. HIGH CHC AND LIKELY POPS WERE MAINTAINED AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT...AS IT SAGS E/SE ACROSS THE FCST AREA. SOME HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT THE PWATS DO NOT LOOK HIGHLY
ANOMALOUS AT THIS POINT /AROUND A STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL/. THE
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD START AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER.
AT THIS POINT IT IS HARD TO TELL IF A WIDESPREAD OR MAJOR EVENT
WILL OCCUR FOR THE REGION....BUT WE AGREE WITH SPC AND HAVE AT
LEAST MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR SOME SEVERE IN THE FCST AREA. LOWS
MON NIGHT WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE WITH MID AND U60S FROM THE
EASTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE LAKE GEORGE REGION
SOUTH AND EAST...AND U50S AND L60S NORTH AND WEST.

TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR WRN NEW ENGLAND BY
DAYBREAK. THE SFC DEWPT BOUNDARY WILL STILL BE PROGRESSING EAST
ACROSS ERN NY. THE NAM IS ADVERTISING ALOT OF INSTABILITY FOR TUE
WITH A DEEPLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THE GFS HAS LESS AGAIN...BUT
THERE IS A SMALL AREA OF HIGH INSTABILITY FROM THE THE MASS PIKE
SOUTH AND EAST INTO NW CT. SPC DOES HAVE LITCHFIELD CTY CLIPPED BY
THE MARGINAL RISK. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE AROUND 6.5C/KM
WITH ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR SOME STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL /NO ENHANCED WORDING YET/...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST. LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING
DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE PM. DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS OFF THE
ERN CATSKILLS/ERN DACKS MAY ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO GET INTO THE MID
AND U80S IN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION. EXPECT M70S TO
L80S IN MOST OTHER LOCATIONS...EXCEPT OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN
GREENS WHERE SOME U60S TO L70S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE COLD ADVECTION
REGIME...AS H850 TEMPS LOWER TO +10C TO +16C FROM NW TO SE OVER
THE FCST AREA BY THE LATE PM. A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SUNSET.

TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL HEATING THE SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY. THE ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS MAY LINGER THE LONGEST OVER THE SRN DACKS. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60F WITH SOME U40S TO L50S
OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN GREENS. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE QUITE
COMFORTABLE.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE FCST AREA WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER S-CNTRL QUEBEC. IN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW ANOTHER PIECE OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY WILL SWING ACROSS UPSTATE
NY AND NEW ENGLAND. THE BEST CHC OF ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS DUE TO THE
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. H500 TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -15C TO -18C FROM ALY
NORTH AND WEST. THE H500 HEIGHTS ARE ABOUT 2-3 STD DEVS BELOW
NORMAL BASED ON THE LATEST GEFS FOR WED. H850 TEMPS WILL BE 1-2
STD DEVS BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS ON WED WILL BE IN THE M60S TO L70S
OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS...WITH A FEW 80F
READINGS NEAR KPOU. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR COOL NIGHT FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF AUG...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE U40S TO M50S OVER
THE FCST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.

GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT SHOULD STALL TO OUR
SOUTH LATE IN THE WEEK SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE EXACT
LOCATION IS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION AT THIS TIME. GUIDANCE IS ALSO IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE IN THE WEEK LEAVING THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
NORTHEAST UNDER A LONGWAVE TROUGH THOUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS ARE ON HOW THEY HANDLE SHORT WAVE ENERGY
MOVING THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AND ITS IMPACTS THE POSITION OF THE
STALLED BOUNDARY AND THE STRENGTHEN OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT IS
EXPECTED TO FORM AND MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY. GUIDANCE HAVE NOT
BEEN SHOWING ANY CONSISTENCY. AT THIS TIME...THE OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE GFS
KEEPS THE BOUNDARY...LOW AND PRECIPITATION SHIELD TO OUR SOUTH WHILE THE
ECMWF BRINGS A SOAKING RAINFALL TO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
TO MAINLY TO AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90.

HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER TO MAINTAIN
FORECAST CONSISTENCY AND HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-90 LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AS FOR THE WEEKEND...HAVE MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCES
POPS SINCE THE TIMING OF ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVES IN HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE
TAF SITES AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH
CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR WITH THE CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT HAVE NOT BEEN INCLUDE
IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. HAVE ADDRESSED THE THREAT OF THE STORMS WITH
A PROB30 GROUP INCLUDING THUNDERSTORMS. FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT AS THE CLOUD COVER DECREASES AND WINDS LIGHTEN UP.

AT KALB...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AND ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY.
AT THE OTHER TAF SITES...A SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND WILL DEVELOP
WHICH WILL BECOME GUSTY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY. A LIGHTER
SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE STORMS AS WE HEAD INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU NIGHT-FRI: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TODAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE COLD
FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING...BUT AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
ARRIVE FOR WEDNESDAY.

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 40 TO 60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...AND
INCREASE TO 75 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO
35 TO 55 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH
TODAY...AND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH TONIGHT. THE WINDS
WILL BE FORM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH ON TUESDAY WITH
THE FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS RISE UP TO AROUND 1.5
INCHES AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO
SOME MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS. ALSO
SOME SHARP WITHIN BANK RISES WOULD BE EXPECTED ON STREAMS...CREEKS
AND SOME SMALL RIVERS.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES AND PASSES OVER THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY
RANGE FROM A TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS.

A TREND TOWARDS DRIER WEATHER WILL OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...AND
CONTINUE UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 031049
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
649 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TODAY.  THERE IS A CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.  THE COLD FRONT
WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
ARRIVE FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
...SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...

AS OF 648 AM EDT...AN H500 CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO BE
NEAR NRN ONTARIO AND JAMES BAY THIS MORNING. SEVERAL SHORT-WAVES
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
FCST AREA THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ONE SHORT-WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
BASE OF THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATER
TODAY...AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AND OHIO
VALLEY.

AT THE SFC...A WEAK SFC CYCLONE OVER THE CNTRL/ERN GREAT LAKES
REGION IS MOVING TOWARDS SE ONTARIO THIS MORNING. THE FCST AREA
WILL BE IN A WARM SECTOR TODAY WITH SFC DEWPTS RISING INTO THE
U50S TO PERHAPS M60S. A PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH AHEAD OF THE MAIN
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS WRN-CNTRL NY LATE THIS MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO FIRE JUST AHEAD OR IN THE
PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH ZONE BTWN THE SFC TROUGH AND THE COLD FRONT.

THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A THREAT WILL INCREASE FOR
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
SOME SCT STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY REACH THE SRN
DACKS/W-CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY BTWN 2-5 PM...THEN MUCH OF ERN NY BTWN
5-8 PM INCLUDING THE CAPITAL REGION...AND THEN POTENTIALLY
SPREADING INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND BTWN 8-11 PM. THE LATEST HIRESWRF
REF PRODUCT CONTINUES THIS TREND...THOUGH THE HRRR IS A LITTLE
FASTER. THE 4-KM WPC SPC WRF ACTUALLY HAS SOME CONVECTION FIRE
WITH AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NEAR THE LAKE GEORGE REGION AROUND 2-4
PM. WE ARE GOING TO STICK CLOSER TO THE HIRESWRF FOR THE TIMING AT
THIS POINT.

THE BEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE OVER THE FCST AREA IN THE
EARLY TO MID PM BASED ON THE GFS/NAM. THESE LAPSE RATES WILL BE IN
THE 6.5-7+C/KM RANGE. THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE
INSTABILITY PROFILES BTWN THE NAM/GFS. THE NAM IS ON THE HIGHER
END WITH SBCAPES OF ROUGHLY 1000-2000 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
SFC DEWPTS. THE GFS HAS ONLY SBCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER POCKETS. THE SFC DEWPTS ARE LOWER ON THE GFS. THE
SFC TO BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE FROM THE S/SW DURING THE DAY. THE
0-6 KM BULK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES INCREASE TO 35-45 KTS
DURING THE PM. SOME DEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE. MULTICELLS OR MULTICELL
LINES LOOK POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WITH THE UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND
PROFILES IN THE BUFKIT SOUNDS. SOME BOWING ELEMENTS/WET MICROBURSTS
MAY OCCUR...AS INVERTED-V PROFILES ARE ALSO EVIDENT IN THE
SOUNDINGS. DAMAGING WINDS LOOK LIKE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AS THE SECONDARY THREAT.  ACTUALLY H850
TEMPS INCREASE TO +15C TO +19C OVER THE FCST AREA. HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH THE M80S TO LOWER 90S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND
M70S TO L80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE BETTER UPPER JET DYNAMICS ARRIVE TOWARDS NIGHTFALL...BUT
DECENT UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OCCURS OVER ERN NY PRIOR TO THEN.
PWATS DO INCREASE TO 1.25-1.50+ INCHES OVER MOST OF THE
REGION...SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE. WE WILL
CONTINUE THE TREND FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN THE ZONES/GRIDS
TO PHRASE THAT SOME STORMS MAYBE SEVERE IN THE MID PM TO LATE PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE DEGREE OF HOW WIDESPREAD THE SEVERE WEATHER MAY
POTENTIALLY BE WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAST THE UPPER IMPULSE AND COLD
FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...SINCE THE INSTABILITY MAY POSSIBLY
BE WANING. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
ARRIVE TOWARDS SUNSET...AN IMPRESSIVE CYCLONICALLY CURVED JET
STREAK AT H250 OF 85-95 KTS WILL PASS WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY. ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND WILL BE NEAR THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE JET STREAK. SOME ENHANCEMENT TO THE CONVECTION MAY
OCCUR...AND SOME OF THE MULTICELLS MAY GET INTO WRN ENGLAND. THERE
MAYBE AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL OR TWO CLOSER TO THE BETTER DEEP
SHEAR...WHICH LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE NORTH OF THE I-90 CORRIDOR AT
THIS POINT. HIGH CHC AND LIKELY POPS WERE MAINTAINED AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT...AS IT SAGS E/SE ACROSS THE FCST AREA. SOME HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT THE PWATS DO NOT LOOK HIGHLY
ANOMALOUS AT THIS POINT /AROUND A STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL/. THE
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD START AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER.
AT THIS POINT IT IS HARD TO TELL IF A WIDESPREAD OR MAJOR EVENT
WILL OCCUR FOR THE REGION....BUT WE AGREE WITH SPC AND HAVE AT
LEAST MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR SOME SEVERE IN THE FCST AREA. LOWS
MON NIGHT WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE WITH MID AND U60S FROM THE
EASTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE LAKE GEORGE REGION
SOUTH AND EAST...AND U50S AND L60S NORTH AND WEST.

TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR WRN NEW ENGLAND BY
DAYBREAK. THE SFC DEWPT BOUNDARY WILL STILL BE PROGRESSING EAST
ACROSS ERN NY. THE NAM IS ADVERTISING ALOT OF INSTABILITY FOR TUE
WITH A DEEPLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THE GFS HAS LESS AGAIN...BUT
THERE IS A SMALL AREA OF HIGH INSTABILITY FROM THE THE MASS PIKE
SOUTH AND EAST INTO NW CT. SPC DOES HAVE LITCHFIELD CTY CLIPPED BY
THE MARGINAL RISK. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE AROUND 6.5C/KM
WITH ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR SOME STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL /NO ENHANCED WORDING YET/...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST. LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING
DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE PM. DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS OFF THE
ERN CATSKILLS/ERN DACKS MAY ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO GET INTO THE MID
AND U80S IN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION. EXPECT M70S TO
L80S IN MOST OTHER LOCATIONS...EXCEPT OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN
GREENS WHERE SOME U60S TO L70S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE COLD ADVECTION
REGIME...AS H850 TEMPS LOWER TO +10C TO +16C FROM NW TO SE OVER
THE FCST AREA BY THE LATE PM. A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SUNSET.

TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL HEATING THE SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY. THE ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS MAY LINGER THE LONGEST OVER THE SRN DACKS. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60F WITH SOME U40S TO L50S
OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN GREENS. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE QUITE
COMFORTABLE.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE FCST AREA WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER S-CNTRL QUEBEC. IN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW ANOTHER PIECE OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY WILL SWING ACROSS UPSTATE
NY AND NEW ENGLAND. THE BEST CHC OF ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS DUE TO THE
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. H500 TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -15C TO -18C FROM ALY
NORTH AND WEST. THE H500 HEIGHTS ARE ABOUT 2-3 STD DEVS BELOW
NORMAL BASED ON THE LATEST GEFS FOR WED. H850 TEMPS WILL BE 1-2
STD DEVS BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS ON WED WILL BE IN THE M60S TO L70S
OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS...WITH A FEW 80F
READINGS NEAR KPOU. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR COOL NIGHT FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF AUG...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE U40S TO M50S OVER
THE FCST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.

GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT SHOULD STALL TO OUR
SOUTH LATE IN THE WEEK SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE EXACT
LOCATION IS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION AT THIS TIME. GUIDANCE IS ALSO IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE IN THE WEEK LEAVING THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
NORTHEAST UNDER A LONGWAVE TROUGH THOUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS ARE ON HOW THEY HANDLE SHORT WAVE ENERGY
MOVING THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AND ITS IMPACTS THE POSITION OF THE
STALLED BOUNDARY AND THE STRENGTHEN OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT IS
EXPECTED TO FORM AND MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY. GUIDANCE HAVE NOT
BEEN SHOWING ANY CONSISTENCY. AT THIS TIME...THE OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE GFS
KEEPS THE BOUNDARY...LOW AND PRECIPITATION SHIELD TO OUR SOUTH WHILE THE
ECMWF BRINGS A SOAKING RAINFALL TO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
TO MAINLY TO AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90.

HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER TO MAINTAIN
FORECAST CONSISTENCY AND HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-90 LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AS FOR THE WEEKEND...HAVE MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCES
POPS SINCE THE TIMING OF ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVES IN HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE
TAF SITES AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH
CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR WITH THE CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT HAVE NOT BEEN INCLUDE
IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. HAVE ADDRESSED THE THREAT OF THE STORMS WITH
A PROB30 GROUP INCLUDING THUNDERSTORMS. FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT AS THE CLOUD COVER DECREASES AND WINDS LIGHTEN UP.

AT KALB...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AND ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY.
AT THE OTHER TAF SITES...A SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND WILL DEVELOP
WHICH WILL BECOME GUSTY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY. A LIGHTER
SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE STORMS AS WE HEAD INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU NIGHT-FRI: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TODAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE COLD
FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING...BUT AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
ARRIVE FOR WEDNESDAY.

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 40 TO 60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...AND
INCREASE TO 75 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO
35 TO 55 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH
TODAY...AND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH TONIGHT. THE WINDS
WILL BE FORM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH ON TUESDAY WITH
THE FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS RISE UP TO AROUND 1.5
INCHES AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO
SOME MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS. ALSO
SOME SHARP WITHIN BANK RISES WOULD BE EXPECTED ON STREAMS...CREEKS
AND SOME SMALL RIVERS.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES AND PASSES OVER THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY
RANGE FROM A TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS.

A TREND TOWARDS DRIER WEATHER WILL OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...AND
CONTINUE UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 031049
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
649 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TODAY.  THERE IS A CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.  THE COLD FRONT
WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
ARRIVE FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
...SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...

AS OF 648 AM EDT...AN H500 CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO BE
NEAR NRN ONTARIO AND JAMES BAY THIS MORNING. SEVERAL SHORT-WAVES
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
FCST AREA THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ONE SHORT-WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
BASE OF THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATER
TODAY...AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AND OHIO
VALLEY.

AT THE SFC...A WEAK SFC CYCLONE OVER THE CNTRL/ERN GREAT LAKES
REGION IS MOVING TOWARDS SE ONTARIO THIS MORNING. THE FCST AREA
WILL BE IN A WARM SECTOR TODAY WITH SFC DEWPTS RISING INTO THE
U50S TO PERHAPS M60S. A PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH AHEAD OF THE MAIN
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS WRN-CNTRL NY LATE THIS MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO FIRE JUST AHEAD OR IN THE
PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH ZONE BTWN THE SFC TROUGH AND THE COLD FRONT.

THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A THREAT WILL INCREASE FOR
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
SOME SCT STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY REACH THE SRN
DACKS/W-CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY BTWN 2-5 PM...THEN MUCH OF ERN NY BTWN
5-8 PM INCLUDING THE CAPITAL REGION...AND THEN POTENTIALLY
SPREADING INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND BTWN 8-11 PM. THE LATEST HIRESWRF
REF PRODUCT CONTINUES THIS TREND...THOUGH THE HRRR IS A LITTLE
FASTER. THE 4-KM WPC SPC WRF ACTUALLY HAS SOME CONVECTION FIRE
WITH AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NEAR THE LAKE GEORGE REGION AROUND 2-4
PM. WE ARE GOING TO STICK CLOSER TO THE HIRESWRF FOR THE TIMING AT
THIS POINT.

THE BEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE OVER THE FCST AREA IN THE
EARLY TO MID PM BASED ON THE GFS/NAM. THESE LAPSE RATES WILL BE IN
THE 6.5-7+C/KM RANGE. THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE
INSTABILITY PROFILES BTWN THE NAM/GFS. THE NAM IS ON THE HIGHER
END WITH SBCAPES OF ROUGHLY 1000-2000 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
SFC DEWPTS. THE GFS HAS ONLY SBCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER POCKETS. THE SFC DEWPTS ARE LOWER ON THE GFS. THE
SFC TO BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE FROM THE S/SW DURING THE DAY. THE
0-6 KM BULK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES INCREASE TO 35-45 KTS
DURING THE PM. SOME DEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE. MULTICELLS OR MULTICELL
LINES LOOK POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WITH THE UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND
PROFILES IN THE BUFKIT SOUNDS. SOME BOWING ELEMENTS/WET MICROBURSTS
MAY OCCUR...AS INVERTED-V PROFILES ARE ALSO EVIDENT IN THE
SOUNDINGS. DAMAGING WINDS LOOK LIKE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AS THE SECONDARY THREAT.  ACTUALLY H850
TEMPS INCREASE TO +15C TO +19C OVER THE FCST AREA. HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH THE M80S TO LOWER 90S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND
M70S TO L80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE BETTER UPPER JET DYNAMICS ARRIVE TOWARDS NIGHTFALL...BUT
DECENT UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OCCURS OVER ERN NY PRIOR TO THEN.
PWATS DO INCREASE TO 1.25-1.50+ INCHES OVER MOST OF THE
REGION...SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE. WE WILL
CONTINUE THE TREND FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN THE ZONES/GRIDS
TO PHRASE THAT SOME STORMS MAYBE SEVERE IN THE MID PM TO LATE PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE DEGREE OF HOW WIDESPREAD THE SEVERE WEATHER MAY
POTENTIALLY BE WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAST THE UPPER IMPULSE AND COLD
FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...SINCE THE INSTABILITY MAY POSSIBLY
BE WANING. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
ARRIVE TOWARDS SUNSET...AN IMPRESSIVE CYCLONICALLY CURVED JET
STREAK AT H250 OF 85-95 KTS WILL PASS WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY. ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND WILL BE NEAR THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE JET STREAK. SOME ENHANCEMENT TO THE CONVECTION MAY
OCCUR...AND SOME OF THE MULTICELLS MAY GET INTO WRN ENGLAND. THERE
MAYBE AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL OR TWO CLOSER TO THE BETTER DEEP
SHEAR...WHICH LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE NORTH OF THE I-90 CORRIDOR AT
THIS POINT. HIGH CHC AND LIKELY POPS WERE MAINTAINED AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT...AS IT SAGS E/SE ACROSS THE FCST AREA. SOME HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT THE PWATS DO NOT LOOK HIGHLY
ANOMALOUS AT THIS POINT /AROUND A STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL/. THE
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD START AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER.
AT THIS POINT IT IS HARD TO TELL IF A WIDESPREAD OR MAJOR EVENT
WILL OCCUR FOR THE REGION....BUT WE AGREE WITH SPC AND HAVE AT
LEAST MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR SOME SEVERE IN THE FCST AREA. LOWS
MON NIGHT WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE WITH MID AND U60S FROM THE
EASTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE LAKE GEORGE REGION
SOUTH AND EAST...AND U50S AND L60S NORTH AND WEST.

TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR WRN NEW ENGLAND BY
DAYBREAK. THE SFC DEWPT BOUNDARY WILL STILL BE PROGRESSING EAST
ACROSS ERN NY. THE NAM IS ADVERTISING ALOT OF INSTABILITY FOR TUE
WITH A DEEPLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THE GFS HAS LESS AGAIN...BUT
THERE IS A SMALL AREA OF HIGH INSTABILITY FROM THE THE MASS PIKE
SOUTH AND EAST INTO NW CT. SPC DOES HAVE LITCHFIELD CTY CLIPPED BY
THE MARGINAL RISK. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE AROUND 6.5C/KM
WITH ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR SOME STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL /NO ENHANCED WORDING YET/...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST. LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING
DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE PM. DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS OFF THE
ERN CATSKILLS/ERN DACKS MAY ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO GET INTO THE MID
AND U80S IN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION. EXPECT M70S TO
L80S IN MOST OTHER LOCATIONS...EXCEPT OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN
GREENS WHERE SOME U60S TO L70S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE COLD ADVECTION
REGIME...AS H850 TEMPS LOWER TO +10C TO +16C FROM NW TO SE OVER
THE FCST AREA BY THE LATE PM. A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SUNSET.

TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL HEATING THE SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY. THE ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS MAY LINGER THE LONGEST OVER THE SRN DACKS. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60F WITH SOME U40S TO L50S
OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN GREENS. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE QUITE
COMFORTABLE.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE FCST AREA WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER S-CNTRL QUEBEC. IN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW ANOTHER PIECE OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY WILL SWING ACROSS UPSTATE
NY AND NEW ENGLAND. THE BEST CHC OF ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS DUE TO THE
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. H500 TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -15C TO -18C FROM ALY
NORTH AND WEST. THE H500 HEIGHTS ARE ABOUT 2-3 STD DEVS BELOW
NORMAL BASED ON THE LATEST GEFS FOR WED. H850 TEMPS WILL BE 1-2
STD DEVS BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS ON WED WILL BE IN THE M60S TO L70S
OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS...WITH A FEW 80F
READINGS NEAR KPOU. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR COOL NIGHT FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF AUG...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE U40S TO M50S OVER
THE FCST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.

GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT SHOULD STALL TO OUR
SOUTH LATE IN THE WEEK SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE EXACT
LOCATION IS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION AT THIS TIME. GUIDANCE IS ALSO IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE IN THE WEEK LEAVING THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
NORTHEAST UNDER A LONGWAVE TROUGH THOUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS ARE ON HOW THEY HANDLE SHORT WAVE ENERGY
MOVING THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AND ITS IMPACTS THE POSITION OF THE
STALLED BOUNDARY AND THE STRENGTHEN OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT IS
EXPECTED TO FORM AND MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY. GUIDANCE HAVE NOT
BEEN SHOWING ANY CONSISTENCY. AT THIS TIME...THE OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE GFS
KEEPS THE BOUNDARY...LOW AND PRECIPITATION SHIELD TO OUR SOUTH WHILE THE
ECMWF BRINGS A SOAKING RAINFALL TO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
TO MAINLY TO AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90.

HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER TO MAINTAIN
FORECAST CONSISTENCY AND HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-90 LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AS FOR THE WEEKEND...HAVE MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCES
POPS SINCE THE TIMING OF ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVES IN HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE
TAF SITES AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH
CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR WITH THE CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT HAVE NOT BEEN INCLUDE
IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. HAVE ADDRESSED THE THREAT OF THE STORMS WITH
A PROB30 GROUP INCLUDING THUNDERSTORMS. FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT AS THE CLOUD COVER DECREASES AND WINDS LIGHTEN UP.

AT KALB...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AND ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY.
AT THE OTHER TAF SITES...A SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND WILL DEVELOP
WHICH WILL BECOME GUSTY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY. A LIGHTER
SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE STORMS AS WE HEAD INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU NIGHT-FRI: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TODAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE COLD
FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING...BUT AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
ARRIVE FOR WEDNESDAY.

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 40 TO 60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...AND
INCREASE TO 75 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO
35 TO 55 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH
TODAY...AND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH TONIGHT. THE WINDS
WILL BE FORM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH ON TUESDAY WITH
THE FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS RISE UP TO AROUND 1.5
INCHES AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO
SOME MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS. ALSO
SOME SHARP WITHIN BANK RISES WOULD BE EXPECTED ON STREAMS...CREEKS
AND SOME SMALL RIVERS.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES AND PASSES OVER THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY
RANGE FROM A TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS.

A TREND TOWARDS DRIER WEATHER WILL OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...AND
CONTINUE UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 030828
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
428 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TODAY.  THERE IS A CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.  THE COLD FRONT
WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
ARRIVE FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
...SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...

AS OF 428 AM EDT...AN H500 CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO BE
NEAR NRN ONTARIO AND JAMES BAY THIS MORNING. SEVERAL SHORT-WAVES
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
FCST AREA THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ONE SHORT-WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
BASE OF THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATER
TODAY...AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AND OHIO
VALLEY.

AT THE SFC...A WEAK WARM FRONT AHEAD OF A CYCLONE OVER CNTRL/ERN
GREAT LAKES REGION IS MOVING ACROSS WRN NY/LAKE ONTARIO INTO SE
ONTARIO THIS MORNING. THE FCST AREA WILL BE IN A WARM SECTOR TODAY
WITH SFC DEWPTS RISING INTO THE U50S TO PERHAPS M60S. A PREFRONTAL
SFC TROUGH AHEAD OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS WRN-CNTRL
NY LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
FIRE JUST AHEAD OR IN THE PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH ZONE BTWN THE SFC
TROUGH AND THE COLD FRONT.

THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A THREAT WILL INCREASE FOR
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
SOME SCT STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY REACH THE SRN
DACKS/W-CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY BTWN 2-5 PM...THEN MUCH OF ERN NY BTWN
5-8 PM...AND THEN POTENTIALLY SPREADING INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND BTWN
8-11 PM.

THE BEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE OVER THE FCST AREA IN THE
EARLY TO MID PM BASED ON THE GFS/NAM. THESE LAPSE RATES WILL BE IN
THE 6.5-7+C/KM RANGE. THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE
INSTABILITY PROFILES BTWN THE NAM/GFS. THE NAM IS ON THE HIGHER
END WITH SBCAPES OF ROUGHLY 1000-2000 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
SFC DEWPTS. THE GFS HAS ONLY SBCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER POCKETS. THE SFC DEWPTS ARE LOWER ON THE GFS. THE
SFC TO BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE FROM THE S/SW DURING THE DAY. THE
0-6 KM BULK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES INCREASE TO 35-45 KTS
DURING THE PM. SOME DEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE. MULTICELLS OR MULTICELL
LINES LOOK POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WITH THE UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND
PROFILES IN THE BUFKIT SOUNDS. SOME BOWING ELEMENTS/WET MICROBURSTS
MAY OCCUR...AS INVERTED-V PROFILES ARE ALSO EVIDENT IN THE
SOUNDINGS. ACTUALLY H850 TEMPS INCREASE TO +15C TO +19C OVER THE
FCST AREA. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE M80S TO LOWER 90S IN
THE VALLEY AREAS...AND M70S TO L80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE BETTER UPPER JET DYNAMICS ARRIVE TOWARDS NIGHTFALL... BUT
DECENT UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OCCURS OVER ERN NY PRIOR TO THEN.
PWATS DO INCREASE TO 1.25-1.50 INCHES OVER MOST OF THE
REGION...SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE. WE WILL
CONTINUE THE TREND FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN THE ZONES/GRIDS
TO PHRASE THAT SOME STORMS MAYBE SEVERE IN THE MID PM TO LATE PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE DEGREE OF HOW WIDESPREAD THE SEVERE WEATHER MAY
POTENTIALLY BE WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAST THE UPPER IMPULSE AND COLD
FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...SINCE THE INSTABILITY MAY POSSIBLY
BE WANING. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
ARRIVE TOWARDS SUNSET...AN IMPRESSIVE CYCLONICALLY CURVED JET
STREAK AT H250 OF 85-95 KTS WILL PASS WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY. ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND WILL BE NEAR THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE JET STREAK. SOME ENHANCEMENT TO THE CONVECTION MAY
OCCUR...AND SOME OF THE MULTICELLS MAY GET INTO WRN ENGLAND. THERE
MAYBE AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL OR TWO CLOSER TO THE BETTER DEEP
SHEAR...WHICH LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE NORTH OF THE I-90 CORRIDOR AT
THIS POINT. HIGH CHC AND LIKELY POPS WERE MAINTAINED AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT...AS IT SAGS E/SE ACROSS THE FCST AREA. SOME HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT THE PWATS DO NOT LOOK HIGHLY
ANOMALOUS AT THIS POINT /AROUND A STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL/. THE
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD START AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER.
AT THIS POINT IT IS HARD TO TELL IF A WIDESPREAD OR MAJOR EVENT
WILL OCCUR FOR THE REGION....BUT WE AGREE WITH SPC AND HAVE AT
LEAST MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR SOME SEVERE IN THE FCST AREA. LOWS
MON NIGHT WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE WITH MID AND U60S FROM THE
EASTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE LAKE GEORGE REGION
SOUTH AND EAST...AND U50S AND L60S NORTH AND WEST.

TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR WRN NEW ENGLAND BY
DAYBREAK. THE SFC DEWPT BOUNDARY WILL STILL BE PROGRESSING EAST
ACROSS ERN NY. THE NAM IS ADVERTISING ALOT OF INSTABILITY FOR TUE
WITH A DEEPLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THE GFS HAS LESS AGAIN...BUT
THERE IS A SMALL AREA OF HIGH INSTABILITY FROM THE THE MASS PIKE
SOUTH AND EAST INTO NW CT. SPC DOES HAVE LITCHFIELD CTY CLIPPED BY
THE MARGINAL RISK. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE AROUND 6.5C/KM
WITH ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR SOME STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL /NO ENHANCED WORDING YET/...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST. LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING
DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE PM. DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS OFF THE
ERN CATSKILLS/ERN DACKS MAY ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO GET INTO THE MID
AND U80S IN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION. EXPECT M70S TO
L80S IN MOST OTHER LOCATIONS...EXCEPT OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN
GREENS WHERE SOME U60S TO L70S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE COLD ADVECTION
REGIME...AS H850 TEMPS LOWER TO +10C TO +16C FROM NW TO SE OVER
THE FCST AREA BY THE LATE PM. A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SUNSET.

TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL HEATING THE SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY. THE ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS MAY LINGER THE LONGEST OVER THE SRN DACKS. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60F WITH SOME U40S TO L50S
OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN GREENS. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE QUITE
COMFORTABLE.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE FCST AREA WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER S-CNTRL QUEBEC. IN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW ANOTHER PIECE OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY WILL SWING ACROSS UPSTATE
NY AND NEW ENGLAND. THE BEST CHC OF ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS DUE TO THE
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. H500 TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -15C TO -18C FROM ALY
NORTH AND WEST. THE H500 HEIGHTS ARE ABOUT 2-3 STD DEVS BELOW
NORMAL BASED ON THE LATEST GEFS FOR WED. H850 TEMPS WILL BE 1-2
STD DEVS BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS ON WED WILL BE IN THE M60S TO L70S
OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS...WITH A FEW 80F
READINGS NEAR KPOU. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR COOL NIGHT FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF AUG...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE U40S TO M50S OVER
THE FCST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.

GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT SHOULD STALL TO OUR
SOUTH LATE IN THE WEEK SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE EXACT
LOCATION IS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION AT THIS TIME. GUIDANCE IS ALSO IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE IN THE WEEK LEAVING THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
NORTHEAST UNDER A LONGWAVE TROUGH THOUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS ARE ON HOW THEY HANDLE SHORT WAVE ENERGY
MOVING THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AND ITS IMPACTS THE POSITION OF THE
STALLED BOUNDARY AND THE STRENGTHEN OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT IS
EXPECTED TO FORM AND MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY. GUIDANCE HAVE NOT
BEEN SHOWING ANY CONSISTENCY. AT THIS TIME...THE OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE GFS
KEEPS THE BOUNDARY...LOW AND PRECIPITATION SHIELD TO OUR SOUTH WHILE THE
ECMWF BRINGS A SOAKING RAINFALL TO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
TO MAINLY TO AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90.

HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER TO MAINTAIN
FORECAST CONSISTENCY AND HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-90 LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AS FOR THE WEEKEND...HAVE MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCES
POPS SINCE THE TIMING OF ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVES IN HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE
TAF SITES AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH
CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR WITH THE CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT HAVE NOT BEEN INCLUDE
IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. HAVE ADDRESSED THE THREAT OF THE STORMS WITH
A PROB30 GROUP INCLUDING THUNDERSTORMS.

AT KALB...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AND ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY.
AT THE OTHER TAF SITES...LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WITH A SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND DEVELOPING WHICH SHOULD
BECOME GUSTY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY. A LIGHTER SOUTHERLY
FLOW IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE STORMS AS WE HEAD INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU NIGHT-FRI: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TODAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE COLD
FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING...BUT AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
ARRIVE FOR WEDNESDAY.

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 40 TO 60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...AND
INCREASE TO 75 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO
35 TO 55 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH
TODAY...AND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH TONIGHT. THE WINDS
WILL BE FORM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH ON TUESDAY WITH
THE FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS RISE UP TO AROUND 1.5
INCHES AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO
SOME MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS. ALSO
SOME SHARP WITHIN BANK RISES WOULD BE EXPECTED ON STREAMS...CREEKS
AND SOME SMALL RIVERS.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES AND PASSES OVER THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY
RANGE FROM A TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS.

A TREND TOWARDS DRIER WEATHER WILL OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...AND
CONTINUE UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 030828
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
428 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TODAY.  THERE IS A CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.  THE COLD FRONT
WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
ARRIVE FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
...SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...

AS OF 428 AM EDT...AN H500 CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO BE
NEAR NRN ONTARIO AND JAMES BAY THIS MORNING. SEVERAL SHORT-WAVES
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
FCST AREA THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ONE SHORT-WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
BASE OF THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATER
TODAY...AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AND OHIO
VALLEY.

AT THE SFC...A WEAK WARM FRONT AHEAD OF A CYCLONE OVER CNTRL/ERN
GREAT LAKES REGION IS MOVING ACROSS WRN NY/LAKE ONTARIO INTO SE
ONTARIO THIS MORNING. THE FCST AREA WILL BE IN A WARM SECTOR TODAY
WITH SFC DEWPTS RISING INTO THE U50S TO PERHAPS M60S. A PREFRONTAL
SFC TROUGH AHEAD OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS WRN-CNTRL
NY LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
FIRE JUST AHEAD OR IN THE PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH ZONE BTWN THE SFC
TROUGH AND THE COLD FRONT.

THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A THREAT WILL INCREASE FOR
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
SOME SCT STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY REACH THE SRN
DACKS/W-CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY BTWN 2-5 PM...THEN MUCH OF ERN NY BTWN
5-8 PM...AND THEN POTENTIALLY SPREADING INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND BTWN
8-11 PM.

THE BEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE OVER THE FCST AREA IN THE
EARLY TO MID PM BASED ON THE GFS/NAM. THESE LAPSE RATES WILL BE IN
THE 6.5-7+C/KM RANGE. THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE
INSTABILITY PROFILES BTWN THE NAM/GFS. THE NAM IS ON THE HIGHER
END WITH SBCAPES OF ROUGHLY 1000-2000 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
SFC DEWPTS. THE GFS HAS ONLY SBCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER POCKETS. THE SFC DEWPTS ARE LOWER ON THE GFS. THE
SFC TO BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE FROM THE S/SW DURING THE DAY. THE
0-6 KM BULK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES INCREASE TO 35-45 KTS
DURING THE PM. SOME DEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE. MULTICELLS OR MULTICELL
LINES LOOK POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WITH THE UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND
PROFILES IN THE BUFKIT SOUNDS. SOME BOWING ELEMENTS/WET MICROBURSTS
MAY OCCUR...AS INVERTED-V PROFILES ARE ALSO EVIDENT IN THE
SOUNDINGS. ACTUALLY H850 TEMPS INCREASE TO +15C TO +19C OVER THE
FCST AREA. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE M80S TO LOWER 90S IN
THE VALLEY AREAS...AND M70S TO L80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE BETTER UPPER JET DYNAMICS ARRIVE TOWARDS NIGHTFALL... BUT
DECENT UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OCCURS OVER ERN NY PRIOR TO THEN.
PWATS DO INCREASE TO 1.25-1.50 INCHES OVER MOST OF THE
REGION...SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE. WE WILL
CONTINUE THE TREND FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN THE ZONES/GRIDS
TO PHRASE THAT SOME STORMS MAYBE SEVERE IN THE MID PM TO LATE PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE DEGREE OF HOW WIDESPREAD THE SEVERE WEATHER MAY
POTENTIALLY BE WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAST THE UPPER IMPULSE AND COLD
FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...SINCE THE INSTABILITY MAY POSSIBLY
BE WANING. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
ARRIVE TOWARDS SUNSET...AN IMPRESSIVE CYCLONICALLY CURVED JET
STREAK AT H250 OF 85-95 KTS WILL PASS WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY. ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND WILL BE NEAR THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE JET STREAK. SOME ENHANCEMENT TO THE CONVECTION MAY
OCCUR...AND SOME OF THE MULTICELLS MAY GET INTO WRN ENGLAND. THERE
MAYBE AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL OR TWO CLOSER TO THE BETTER DEEP
SHEAR...WHICH LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE NORTH OF THE I-90 CORRIDOR AT
THIS POINT. HIGH CHC AND LIKELY POPS WERE MAINTAINED AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT...AS IT SAGS E/SE ACROSS THE FCST AREA. SOME HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT THE PWATS DO NOT LOOK HIGHLY
ANOMALOUS AT THIS POINT /AROUND A STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL/. THE
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD START AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER.
AT THIS POINT IT IS HARD TO TELL IF A WIDESPREAD OR MAJOR EVENT
WILL OCCUR FOR THE REGION....BUT WE AGREE WITH SPC AND HAVE AT
LEAST MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR SOME SEVERE IN THE FCST AREA. LOWS
MON NIGHT WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE WITH MID AND U60S FROM THE
EASTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE LAKE GEORGE REGION
SOUTH AND EAST...AND U50S AND L60S NORTH AND WEST.

TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR WRN NEW ENGLAND BY
DAYBREAK. THE SFC DEWPT BOUNDARY WILL STILL BE PROGRESSING EAST
ACROSS ERN NY. THE NAM IS ADVERTISING ALOT OF INSTABILITY FOR TUE
WITH A DEEPLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THE GFS HAS LESS AGAIN...BUT
THERE IS A SMALL AREA OF HIGH INSTABILITY FROM THE THE MASS PIKE
SOUTH AND EAST INTO NW CT. SPC DOES HAVE LITCHFIELD CTY CLIPPED BY
THE MARGINAL RISK. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE AROUND 6.5C/KM
WITH ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR SOME STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL /NO ENHANCED WORDING YET/...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST. LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING
DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE PM. DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS OFF THE
ERN CATSKILLS/ERN DACKS MAY ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO GET INTO THE MID
AND U80S IN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION. EXPECT M70S TO
L80S IN MOST OTHER LOCATIONS...EXCEPT OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN
GREENS WHERE SOME U60S TO L70S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE COLD ADVECTION
REGIME...AS H850 TEMPS LOWER TO +10C TO +16C FROM NW TO SE OVER
THE FCST AREA BY THE LATE PM. A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SUNSET.

TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL HEATING THE SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY. THE ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS MAY LINGER THE LONGEST OVER THE SRN DACKS. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60F WITH SOME U40S TO L50S
OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN GREENS. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE QUITE
COMFORTABLE.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE FCST AREA WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER S-CNTRL QUEBEC. IN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW ANOTHER PIECE OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY WILL SWING ACROSS UPSTATE
NY AND NEW ENGLAND. THE BEST CHC OF ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS DUE TO THE
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. H500 TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -15C TO -18C FROM ALY
NORTH AND WEST. THE H500 HEIGHTS ARE ABOUT 2-3 STD DEVS BELOW
NORMAL BASED ON THE LATEST GEFS FOR WED. H850 TEMPS WILL BE 1-2
STD DEVS BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS ON WED WILL BE IN THE M60S TO L70S
OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS...WITH A FEW 80F
READINGS NEAR KPOU. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR COOL NIGHT FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF AUG...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE U40S TO M50S OVER
THE FCST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.

GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT SHOULD STALL TO OUR
SOUTH LATE IN THE WEEK SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE EXACT
LOCATION IS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION AT THIS TIME. GUIDANCE IS ALSO IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE IN THE WEEK LEAVING THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
NORTHEAST UNDER A LONGWAVE TROUGH THOUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS ARE ON HOW THEY HANDLE SHORT WAVE ENERGY
MOVING THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AND ITS IMPACTS THE POSITION OF THE
STALLED BOUNDARY AND THE STRENGTHEN OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT IS
EXPECTED TO FORM AND MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY. GUIDANCE HAVE NOT
BEEN SHOWING ANY CONSISTENCY. AT THIS TIME...THE OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE GFS
KEEPS THE BOUNDARY...LOW AND PRECIPITATION SHIELD TO OUR SOUTH WHILE THE
ECMWF BRINGS A SOAKING RAINFALL TO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
TO MAINLY TO AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90.

HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER TO MAINTAIN
FORECAST CONSISTENCY AND HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-90 LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AS FOR THE WEEKEND...HAVE MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCES
POPS SINCE THE TIMING OF ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVES IN HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE
TAF SITES AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH
CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR WITH THE CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT HAVE NOT BEEN INCLUDE
IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. HAVE ADDRESSED THE THREAT OF THE STORMS WITH
A PROB30 GROUP INCLUDING THUNDERSTORMS.

AT KALB...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AND ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY.
AT THE OTHER TAF SITES...LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WITH A SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND DEVELOPING WHICH SHOULD
BECOME GUSTY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY. A LIGHTER SOUTHERLY
FLOW IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE STORMS AS WE HEAD INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU NIGHT-FRI: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TODAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE COLD
FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING...BUT AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
ARRIVE FOR WEDNESDAY.

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 40 TO 60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...AND
INCREASE TO 75 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO
35 TO 55 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH
TODAY...AND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH TONIGHT. THE WINDS
WILL BE FORM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH ON TUESDAY WITH
THE FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS RISE UP TO AROUND 1.5
INCHES AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO
SOME MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS. ALSO
SOME SHARP WITHIN BANK RISES WOULD BE EXPECTED ON STREAMS...CREEKS
AND SOME SMALL RIVERS.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES AND PASSES OVER THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY
RANGE FROM A TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS.

A TREND TOWARDS DRIER WEATHER WILL OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...AND
CONTINUE UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 030828
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
428 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TODAY.  THERE IS A CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.  THE COLD FRONT
WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
ARRIVE FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
...SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...

AS OF 428 AM EDT...AN H500 CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO BE
NEAR NRN ONTARIO AND JAMES BAY THIS MORNING. SEVERAL SHORT-WAVES
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
FCST AREA THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ONE SHORT-WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
BASE OF THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATER
TODAY...AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AND OHIO
VALLEY.

AT THE SFC...A WEAK WARM FRONT AHEAD OF A CYCLONE OVER CNTRL/ERN
GREAT LAKES REGION IS MOVING ACROSS WRN NY/LAKE ONTARIO INTO SE
ONTARIO THIS MORNING. THE FCST AREA WILL BE IN A WARM SECTOR TODAY
WITH SFC DEWPTS RISING INTO THE U50S TO PERHAPS M60S. A PREFRONTAL
SFC TROUGH AHEAD OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS WRN-CNTRL
NY LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
FIRE JUST AHEAD OR IN THE PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH ZONE BTWN THE SFC
TROUGH AND THE COLD FRONT.

THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A THREAT WILL INCREASE FOR
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
SOME SCT STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY REACH THE SRN
DACKS/W-CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY BTWN 2-5 PM...THEN MUCH OF ERN NY BTWN
5-8 PM...AND THEN POTENTIALLY SPREADING INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND BTWN
8-11 PM.

THE BEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE OVER THE FCST AREA IN THE
EARLY TO MID PM BASED ON THE GFS/NAM. THESE LAPSE RATES WILL BE IN
THE 6.5-7+C/KM RANGE. THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE
INSTABILITY PROFILES BTWN THE NAM/GFS. THE NAM IS ON THE HIGHER
END WITH SBCAPES OF ROUGHLY 1000-2000 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
SFC DEWPTS. THE GFS HAS ONLY SBCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER POCKETS. THE SFC DEWPTS ARE LOWER ON THE GFS. THE
SFC TO BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE FROM THE S/SW DURING THE DAY. THE
0-6 KM BULK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES INCREASE TO 35-45 KTS
DURING THE PM. SOME DEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE. MULTICELLS OR MULTICELL
LINES LOOK POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WITH THE UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND
PROFILES IN THE BUFKIT SOUNDS. SOME BOWING ELEMENTS/WET MICROBURSTS
MAY OCCUR...AS INVERTED-V PROFILES ARE ALSO EVIDENT IN THE
SOUNDINGS. ACTUALLY H850 TEMPS INCREASE TO +15C TO +19C OVER THE
FCST AREA. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE M80S TO LOWER 90S IN
THE VALLEY AREAS...AND M70S TO L80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE BETTER UPPER JET DYNAMICS ARRIVE TOWARDS NIGHTFALL... BUT
DECENT UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OCCURS OVER ERN NY PRIOR TO THEN.
PWATS DO INCREASE TO 1.25-1.50 INCHES OVER MOST OF THE
REGION...SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE. WE WILL
CONTINUE THE TREND FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN THE ZONES/GRIDS
TO PHRASE THAT SOME STORMS MAYBE SEVERE IN THE MID PM TO LATE PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE DEGREE OF HOW WIDESPREAD THE SEVERE WEATHER MAY
POTENTIALLY BE WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAST THE UPPER IMPULSE AND COLD
FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...SINCE THE INSTABILITY MAY POSSIBLY
BE WANING. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
ARRIVE TOWARDS SUNSET...AN IMPRESSIVE CYCLONICALLY CURVED JET
STREAK AT H250 OF 85-95 KTS WILL PASS WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY. ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND WILL BE NEAR THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE JET STREAK. SOME ENHANCEMENT TO THE CONVECTION MAY
OCCUR...AND SOME OF THE MULTICELLS MAY GET INTO WRN ENGLAND. THERE
MAYBE AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL OR TWO CLOSER TO THE BETTER DEEP
SHEAR...WHICH LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE NORTH OF THE I-90 CORRIDOR AT
THIS POINT. HIGH CHC AND LIKELY POPS WERE MAINTAINED AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT...AS IT SAGS E/SE ACROSS THE FCST AREA. SOME HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT THE PWATS DO NOT LOOK HIGHLY
ANOMALOUS AT THIS POINT /AROUND A STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL/. THE
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD START AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER.
AT THIS POINT IT IS HARD TO TELL IF A WIDESPREAD OR MAJOR EVENT
WILL OCCUR FOR THE REGION....BUT WE AGREE WITH SPC AND HAVE AT
LEAST MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR SOME SEVERE IN THE FCST AREA. LOWS
MON NIGHT WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE WITH MID AND U60S FROM THE
EASTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE LAKE GEORGE REGION
SOUTH AND EAST...AND U50S AND L60S NORTH AND WEST.

TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR WRN NEW ENGLAND BY
DAYBREAK. THE SFC DEWPT BOUNDARY WILL STILL BE PROGRESSING EAST
ACROSS ERN NY. THE NAM IS ADVERTISING ALOT OF INSTABILITY FOR TUE
WITH A DEEPLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THE GFS HAS LESS AGAIN...BUT
THERE IS A SMALL AREA OF HIGH INSTABILITY FROM THE THE MASS PIKE
SOUTH AND EAST INTO NW CT. SPC DOES HAVE LITCHFIELD CTY CLIPPED BY
THE MARGINAL RISK. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE AROUND 6.5C/KM
WITH ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR SOME STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL /NO ENHANCED WORDING YET/...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST. LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING
DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE PM. DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS OFF THE
ERN CATSKILLS/ERN DACKS MAY ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO GET INTO THE MID
AND U80S IN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION. EXPECT M70S TO
L80S IN MOST OTHER LOCATIONS...EXCEPT OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN
GREENS WHERE SOME U60S TO L70S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE COLD ADVECTION
REGIME...AS H850 TEMPS LOWER TO +10C TO +16C FROM NW TO SE OVER
THE FCST AREA BY THE LATE PM. A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SUNSET.

TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL HEATING THE SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY. THE ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS MAY LINGER THE LONGEST OVER THE SRN DACKS. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60F WITH SOME U40S TO L50S
OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN GREENS. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE QUITE
COMFORTABLE.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE FCST AREA WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER S-CNTRL QUEBEC. IN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW ANOTHER PIECE OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY WILL SWING ACROSS UPSTATE
NY AND NEW ENGLAND. THE BEST CHC OF ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS DUE TO THE
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. H500 TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -15C TO -18C FROM ALY
NORTH AND WEST. THE H500 HEIGHTS ARE ABOUT 2-3 STD DEVS BELOW
NORMAL BASED ON THE LATEST GEFS FOR WED. H850 TEMPS WILL BE 1-2
STD DEVS BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS ON WED WILL BE IN THE M60S TO L70S
OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS...WITH A FEW 80F
READINGS NEAR KPOU. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR COOL NIGHT FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF AUG...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE U40S TO M50S OVER
THE FCST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.

GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT SHOULD STALL TO OUR
SOUTH LATE IN THE WEEK SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE EXACT
LOCATION IS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION AT THIS TIME. GUIDANCE IS ALSO IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE IN THE WEEK LEAVING THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
NORTHEAST UNDER A LONGWAVE TROUGH THOUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS ARE ON HOW THEY HANDLE SHORT WAVE ENERGY
MOVING THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AND ITS IMPACTS THE POSITION OF THE
STALLED BOUNDARY AND THE STRENGTHEN OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT IS
EXPECTED TO FORM AND MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY. GUIDANCE HAVE NOT
BEEN SHOWING ANY CONSISTENCY. AT THIS TIME...THE OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE GFS
KEEPS THE BOUNDARY...LOW AND PRECIPITATION SHIELD TO OUR SOUTH WHILE THE
ECMWF BRINGS A SOAKING RAINFALL TO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
TO MAINLY TO AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90.

HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER TO MAINTAIN
FORECAST CONSISTENCY AND HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-90 LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AS FOR THE WEEKEND...HAVE MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCES
POPS SINCE THE TIMING OF ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVES IN HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE
TAF SITES AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH
CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR WITH THE CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT HAVE NOT BEEN INCLUDE
IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. HAVE ADDRESSED THE THREAT OF THE STORMS WITH
A PROB30 GROUP INCLUDING THUNDERSTORMS.

AT KALB...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AND ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY.
AT THE OTHER TAF SITES...LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WITH A SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND DEVELOPING WHICH SHOULD
BECOME GUSTY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY. A LIGHTER SOUTHERLY
FLOW IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE STORMS AS WE HEAD INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU NIGHT-FRI: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TODAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE COLD
FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING...BUT AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
ARRIVE FOR WEDNESDAY.

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 40 TO 60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...AND
INCREASE TO 75 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO
35 TO 55 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH
TODAY...AND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH TONIGHT. THE WINDS
WILL BE FORM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH ON TUESDAY WITH
THE FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS RISE UP TO AROUND 1.5
INCHES AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO
SOME MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS. ALSO
SOME SHARP WITHIN BANK RISES WOULD BE EXPECTED ON STREAMS...CREEKS
AND SOME SMALL RIVERS.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES AND PASSES OVER THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY
RANGE FROM A TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS.

A TREND TOWARDS DRIER WEATHER WILL OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...AND
CONTINUE UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 030828
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
428 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TODAY.  THERE IS A CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.  THE COLD FRONT
WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
ARRIVE FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
...SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...

AS OF 428 AM EDT...AN H500 CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO BE
NEAR NRN ONTARIO AND JAMES BAY THIS MORNING. SEVERAL SHORT-WAVES
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
FCST AREA THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ONE SHORT-WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
BASE OF THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATER
TODAY...AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AND OHIO
VALLEY.

AT THE SFC...A WEAK WARM FRONT AHEAD OF A CYCLONE OVER CNTRL/ERN
GREAT LAKES REGION IS MOVING ACROSS WRN NY/LAKE ONTARIO INTO SE
ONTARIO THIS MORNING. THE FCST AREA WILL BE IN A WARM SECTOR TODAY
WITH SFC DEWPTS RISING INTO THE U50S TO PERHAPS M60S. A PREFRONTAL
SFC TROUGH AHEAD OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS WRN-CNTRL
NY LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
FIRE JUST AHEAD OR IN THE PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH ZONE BTWN THE SFC
TROUGH AND THE COLD FRONT.

THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A THREAT WILL INCREASE FOR
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
SOME SCT STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY REACH THE SRN
DACKS/W-CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY BTWN 2-5 PM...THEN MUCH OF ERN NY BTWN
5-8 PM...AND THEN POTENTIALLY SPREADING INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND BTWN
8-11 PM.

THE BEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE OVER THE FCST AREA IN THE
EARLY TO MID PM BASED ON THE GFS/NAM. THESE LAPSE RATES WILL BE IN
THE 6.5-7+C/KM RANGE. THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE
INSTABILITY PROFILES BTWN THE NAM/GFS. THE NAM IS ON THE HIGHER
END WITH SBCAPES OF ROUGHLY 1000-2000 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
SFC DEWPTS. THE GFS HAS ONLY SBCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER POCKETS. THE SFC DEWPTS ARE LOWER ON THE GFS. THE
SFC TO BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE FROM THE S/SW DURING THE DAY. THE
0-6 KM BULK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES INCREASE TO 35-45 KTS
DURING THE PM. SOME DEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE. MULTICELLS OR MULTICELL
LINES LOOK POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WITH THE UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND
PROFILES IN THE BUFKIT SOUNDS. SOME BOWING ELEMENTS/WET MICROBURSTS
MAY OCCUR...AS INVERTED-V PROFILES ARE ALSO EVIDENT IN THE
SOUNDINGS. ACTUALLY H850 TEMPS INCREASE TO +15C TO +19C OVER THE
FCST AREA. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE M80S TO LOWER 90S IN
THE VALLEY AREAS...AND M70S TO L80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE BETTER UPPER JET DYNAMICS ARRIVE TOWARDS NIGHTFALL... BUT
DECENT UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OCCURS OVER ERN NY PRIOR TO THEN.
PWATS DO INCREASE TO 1.25-1.50 INCHES OVER MOST OF THE
REGION...SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE. WE WILL
CONTINUE THE TREND FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN THE ZONES/GRIDS
TO PHRASE THAT SOME STORMS MAYBE SEVERE IN THE MID PM TO LATE PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE DEGREE OF HOW WIDESPREAD THE SEVERE WEATHER MAY
POTENTIALLY BE WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAST THE UPPER IMPULSE AND COLD
FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...SINCE THE INSTABILITY MAY POSSIBLY
BE WANING. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
ARRIVE TOWARDS SUNSET...AN IMPRESSIVE CYCLONICALLY CURVED JET
STREAK AT H250 OF 85-95 KTS WILL PASS WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY. ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND WILL BE NEAR THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE JET STREAK. SOME ENHANCEMENT TO THE CONVECTION MAY
OCCUR...AND SOME OF THE MULTICELLS MAY GET INTO WRN ENGLAND. THERE
MAYBE AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL OR TWO CLOSER TO THE BETTER DEEP
SHEAR...WHICH LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE NORTH OF THE I-90 CORRIDOR AT
THIS POINT. HIGH CHC AND LIKELY POPS WERE MAINTAINED AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT...AS IT SAGS E/SE ACROSS THE FCST AREA. SOME HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT THE PWATS DO NOT LOOK HIGHLY
ANOMALOUS AT THIS POINT /AROUND A STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL/. THE
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD START AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER.
AT THIS POINT IT IS HARD TO TELL IF A WIDESPREAD OR MAJOR EVENT
WILL OCCUR FOR THE REGION....BUT WE AGREE WITH SPC AND HAVE AT
LEAST MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR SOME SEVERE IN THE FCST AREA. LOWS
MON NIGHT WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE WITH MID AND U60S FROM THE
EASTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE LAKE GEORGE REGION
SOUTH AND EAST...AND U50S AND L60S NORTH AND WEST.

TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR WRN NEW ENGLAND BY
DAYBREAK. THE SFC DEWPT BOUNDARY WILL STILL BE PROGRESSING EAST
ACROSS ERN NY. THE NAM IS ADVERTISING ALOT OF INSTABILITY FOR TUE
WITH A DEEPLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THE GFS HAS LESS AGAIN...BUT
THERE IS A SMALL AREA OF HIGH INSTABILITY FROM THE THE MASS PIKE
SOUTH AND EAST INTO NW CT. SPC DOES HAVE LITCHFIELD CTY CLIPPED BY
THE MARGINAL RISK. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE AROUND 6.5C/KM
WITH ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR SOME STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL /NO ENHANCED WORDING YET/...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST. LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING
DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE PM. DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS OFF THE
ERN CATSKILLS/ERN DACKS MAY ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO GET INTO THE MID
AND U80S IN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION. EXPECT M70S TO
L80S IN MOST OTHER LOCATIONS...EXCEPT OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN
GREENS WHERE SOME U60S TO L70S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE COLD ADVECTION
REGIME...AS H850 TEMPS LOWER TO +10C TO +16C FROM NW TO SE OVER
THE FCST AREA BY THE LATE PM. A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SUNSET.

TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL HEATING THE SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY. THE ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS MAY LINGER THE LONGEST OVER THE SRN DACKS. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60F WITH SOME U40S TO L50S
OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN GREENS. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE QUITE
COMFORTABLE.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE FCST AREA WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER S-CNTRL QUEBEC. IN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW ANOTHER PIECE OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY WILL SWING ACROSS UPSTATE
NY AND NEW ENGLAND. THE BEST CHC OF ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS DUE TO THE
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. H500 TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -15C TO -18C FROM ALY
NORTH AND WEST. THE H500 HEIGHTS ARE ABOUT 2-3 STD DEVS BELOW
NORMAL BASED ON THE LATEST GEFS FOR WED. H850 TEMPS WILL BE 1-2
STD DEVS BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS ON WED WILL BE IN THE M60S TO L70S
OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS...WITH A FEW 80F
READINGS NEAR KPOU. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR COOL NIGHT FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF AUG...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE U40S TO M50S OVER
THE FCST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.

GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT SHOULD STALL TO OUR
SOUTH LATE IN THE WEEK SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE EXACT
LOCATION IS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION AT THIS TIME. GUIDANCE IS ALSO IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE IN THE WEEK LEAVING THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
NORTHEAST UNDER A LONGWAVE TROUGH THOUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS ARE ON HOW THEY HANDLE SHORT WAVE ENERGY
MOVING THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AND ITS IMPACTS THE POSITION OF THE
STALLED BOUNDARY AND THE STRENGTHEN OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT IS
EXPECTED TO FORM AND MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY. GUIDANCE HAVE NOT
BEEN SHOWING ANY CONSISTENCY. AT THIS TIME...THE OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE GFS
KEEPS THE BOUNDARY...LOW AND PRECIPITATION SHIELD TO OUR SOUTH WHILE THE
ECMWF BRINGS A SOAKING RAINFALL TO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
TO MAINLY TO AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90.

HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER TO MAINTAIN
FORECAST CONSISTENCY AND HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-90 LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AS FOR THE WEEKEND...HAVE MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCES
POPS SINCE THE TIMING OF ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVES IN HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE
TAF SITES AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH
CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR WITH THE CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT HAVE NOT BEEN INCLUDE
IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. HAVE ADDRESSED THE THREAT OF THE STORMS WITH
A PROB30 GROUP INCLUDING THUNDERSTORMS.

AT KALB...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AND ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY.
AT THE OTHER TAF SITES...LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WITH A SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND DEVELOPING WHICH SHOULD
BECOME GUSTY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY. A LIGHTER SOUTHERLY
FLOW IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE STORMS AS WE HEAD INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU NIGHT-FRI: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TODAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE COLD
FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING...BUT AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
ARRIVE FOR WEDNESDAY.

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 40 TO 60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...AND
INCREASE TO 75 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO
35 TO 55 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH
TODAY...AND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH TONIGHT. THE WINDS
WILL BE FORM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH ON TUESDAY WITH
THE FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS RISE UP TO AROUND 1.5
INCHES AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO
SOME MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS. ALSO
SOME SHARP WITHIN BANK RISES WOULD BE EXPECTED ON STREAMS...CREEKS
AND SOME SMALL RIVERS.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES AND PASSES OVER THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY
RANGE FROM A TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS.

A TREND TOWARDS DRIER WEATHER WILL OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...AND
CONTINUE UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KBOX 030819
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
419 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER PREVAILS MUCH OF TODAY THEN THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS THIS EVENING INTO TUE. DRY...WARM AND LESS
HUMID WEATHER ARRIVES WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY. A
PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE TIMING OF POTENTIAL WET
WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

4 AM UPDATE...

QUITE THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE OH VLY.
MODELS APPEAR TO BE SIMULATING THIS CONVECTION FAIRLY WELL SO
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH REGARDING TODAY/S FORECAST FOR SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT LEAD SHORT WAVE OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WILL EJECT NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN NY STATE TODAY AND
THEN INTO NORTHERN VT AND ST LWRN RVR VLY THEREAFTER. THIS RESULTS
IN LITTLE IF ANY HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY.
THUS SHOULD BE ENOUGH EAST COAST RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL
DRY AIR TO PRECLUDE ANY STORMS FROM FORMING OR TRACKING INTO THE
AREA. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS ACROSS WESTERN MA...CLOSER TO THE JET
ENERGY/MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AXIS. THEREFORE THERE IS A LOW RISK
FOR A FEW STORMS LATE IN THE DAY TO POSSIBLY CLIP WESTERN MA.
OTHERWISE REMAINDER OF THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

LOW CLOUDS...PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY IMPACT PARTS OF RI
AND SOUTHEAST MA THIS MORNING...AS STRATUS ALREADY DEVELOPING AND
OVERSPREADING THIS REGION. THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD ERODE OR
LIFT INTO A STRATOCU DECK BY AFTERNOON...YIELDING PARTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS. ELSEWHERE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL.

SOUTH-SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS RESULTED IN DEW PTS RISING
OVERNIGHT INTO THE 60S TO AROUND 70 ACROSS RI AND SOUTHEAST MA. THUS
MORE HUMID THAN YESTERDAY. WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
RESULT IN TEMPS MAKING A RUN AT 90 AWAY FROM THE SOUTH COAST.
THEREFORE MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE HIGHS TODAY 85 TO 90. AN
INCREASING SSW WIND OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON WILL HELP TAKE SOME OF THE EDGE OFF THE WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...

*** POSSIBLE STRONG TO SEVERE T-STORMS LATER TONIGHT INTO TUE ***

TONIGHT...

MORE POTENT TRAILING SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND FROM THE WEST. THIS IS QUITE EVIDENT IN WIND FIELDS ALOFT
WHERE 500 MB SPEEDS APPROACH 50 KTS! THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH COOLS H5
TEMPS TO -11C/-12C. THIS COMBINED WITH SURFACE DEW PTS INCREASING
INTO THE U60S AND L70S PROVIDES MUCAPES GREATER THAN 2000J/KG AND
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 6.5 AND 7.0C/KM BY 12Z TUE ACROSS RI
AND EASTERN MA PER 00Z EC AND 00Z GFS! EVEN THE COURSE 00Z GEFS HAS
THE SAME SIGNAL AND STRENGTH. THIS AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY COMBINED
WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR UP TO 50 KT PROVIDES AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE
FOR SEVERE STORMS. ONLY UNCERTAINTY IS WILL THERE BE ENOUGH FORCING
FOR ASCENT TO UNLEASH THIS STRONG INSTABILITY. MIXED SIGNALS WITHIN
THE GUIDANCE WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF NOT GENERATING MUCH QPF TONIGHT
WHILE THE HI RES GUID NMM AND ARW HAVE CONVECTION BUT WEAKENING AS
IT CROSSES THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST. SOMEWHAT DISCOUNTING THE NAM
GIVEN IT/S HIGH BIASED DEW PTS AND CORRESPONDING INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS.

THUS LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
CONVECTION. HOWEVER IF STORMS CAN FIRE STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS WILL
BE A CONCERN. LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS IMPRESSIVE TOO ALONG WITH
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND LOW LCLS /HIGH DEW PTS/ FOR A LOW RISK OF
AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

IT WILL BE A WARM AND HUMID NIGHT WITH DEW PTS RISING THROUGH THE
U60S AND L70S.

TUESDAY...

FORECAST UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES AS AREAL COVERAGE OF NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION AND CLOUD DEBRIS FROM TONIGHT WILL IMPACT IF NEW
CONVECTION FIRES DURING THE DAY TUES. SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA ALONG WITH ATTENDING SURFACE TROUGH. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE
ENOUGH FORCING FOR ASCENT TO INITIATE CONVECTION. DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE FOCUSED ACROSS RI AND EASTERN
MA. THUS RISK OF STORMS GREATEST ACROSS THIS AREA. WINDS FIELDS
REMAIN IMPRESSIVE SO RISK OF STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS CONTINUES.

ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S ALONG WITH DEW PTS IN
THE U60S TO L70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE AROUND FRIDAY
* TEMPERATURES TRENDING BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN DESCENT AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER JAMES BAY WILL BEGIN ITS EASTWARD
MOVEMENT TOWARDS THE MARITIMES. ELONGATED TROUGH WILL SET UP OVER
THE REGION BEFORE TRENDING TOWARDS A ZONAL FLOW. SEVERAL SOUTHERN
STREAM WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH AND TRIES TO BRING A FEW COASTAL
SYSTEMS TOWARDS SNE. THE PATTERN DOES NOT SEEM THAT AMPLIFIED TO
MAKE IT A CLASSIC COASTAL LOW...HOWEVER UPPER LEVEL JET MAY BRING A
FEW SYSTEMS JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY AT
THE END OF THE WEEK...TRENDED TOWARDS THE ENSEMBLES WHICH INDICATE
PRECIP AROUND LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AND AGAIN POSSIBLE
SATURDAY/SUNDAY. THIS UNSEASONABLE PATTERN WILL LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS AS COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR CYCLONIC FLOW AND
COLD AIR ALOFT...RESULTING IN A FEW AFTERNOON INSTABILITY SHOWERS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE A MIX OF CLOUDS AND
SUNSHINE.

CYCLONIC FLOW WILL STILL BE ALOFT BY THURSDAY BUT COLD AIR ALOFT
WILL BE FOCUS MORE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THEREFORE BELIEVE
THURSDAY WILL BE DRY WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL BOTH DAYS WITH SNE REACHING
INTO THE 80S ON WEDNESDAYS BUT BELOW 80 ON THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL TRY TO DEVELOP A SOUTHERN WAVE DURING THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK. BOTH ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AS WELL AS THE OPERATIONS
EC BRINGS PRECIP TO THE REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THEREFORE
HAVE INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST WHERE
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST. SNE WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THIS
SYSTEM SO ANY SHIFT IN THE PATTERN WILL MOVE THE PRECIP CHC FOR THE
REGION. FINALLY BEING ON THE NORTH-SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE UNSEASONABLE COOLER. IN FACT TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO
GET ABOVE 80F.

SATURDAY AND BEYOND...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE TRIES TO DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON IF THE PATTERN WILL BRING THIS LOW TO SNE. HAVE KEPT A
LOW CHC AS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FLIP-FLOP DURING THE TIMEFRAME.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE OVER THE WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CONUS BEGINS TO BUILD
AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TODAY...VFR AND DRY WEATHER FOR MOST TERMINALS. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF MA AND RI WHERE PATCHY IFR IN FOG AND
DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...THEN BURNING OFF BY MIDDAY.
ALSO T-STORMS IN NY STATE THIS AFTERNOON MAY CLIP WESTERN MA LATE
IN THE DAY. SSW WINDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO
20-25 KT POSSIBLE. MODERATE TO HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
POTENTIAL T-STORMS. THUS LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST HERE. VFR TO
START BUT LOWERING TO MVFR AND PROBABLY IFR IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
ACROSS RI AND SOUTHEAST MA.

TUESDAY...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
POTENTIAL T-STORMS. THUS LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST HERE. A MIX OF
MVFR AND IFR IN THE MORNING AS LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IMPACT THE
TERMINALS. LIKELY IMPROVING TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TODAY THEN LOWERING TONIGHT
AND TUE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TODAY THEN LOWERING TONIGHT
AND TUE.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. COULD SEE MVFR IN
SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND
MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE BUT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN. LATEST INDICATIONS ARE
THAT BEST CHANCE FOR WET WEATHER WILL BE ON FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...

SSW WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. SEAS
INCREASE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH COASTAL WATERS. PATCHY FOG AND
DRIZZLE IMPACT THE SOUTH WATERS THIS MORNING. IMPROVING THIS
AFTERNOON. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...

SSW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. GUSTS UP TO 25 KT POSSIBLE. PATCHY FOG WILL
LIMIT VSBY. A FEW STRONG T-STORMS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LOW CONFIDENCE ON T-STORM FORECAST.

TUESDAY...

SSW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT POSSIBLE. PATCHY
MORNING FOG MAY REDUCE VSBY. A FEW STRONG T-STORMS POSSIBLE. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON T-STORM FORECAST.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. W/SW WINDS BELOW SCA BUT GUSTS TO
20 KT POSSIBLE. SEAS SUBSIDING.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DEPEND ON
TRACK AND TIMING OF LOW PRES APPROACHING THE REGION. COULD SEE A
PERIOD OF GUSTY NE WINDS...ESPECIALLY FRI.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...NOCERA/DUNTEN
MARINE...NOCERA/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 030819
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
419 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER PREVAILS MUCH OF TODAY THEN THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS THIS EVENING INTO TUE. DRY...WARM AND LESS
HUMID WEATHER ARRIVES WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY. A
PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE TIMING OF POTENTIAL WET
WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

4 AM UPDATE...

QUITE THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE OH VLY.
MODELS APPEAR TO BE SIMULATING THIS CONVECTION FAIRLY WELL SO
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH REGARDING TODAY/S FORECAST FOR SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT LEAD SHORT WAVE OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WILL EJECT NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN NY STATE TODAY AND
THEN INTO NORTHERN VT AND ST LWRN RVR VLY THEREAFTER. THIS RESULTS
IN LITTLE IF ANY HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY.
THUS SHOULD BE ENOUGH EAST COAST RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL
DRY AIR TO PRECLUDE ANY STORMS FROM FORMING OR TRACKING INTO THE
AREA. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS ACROSS WESTERN MA...CLOSER TO THE JET
ENERGY/MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AXIS. THEREFORE THERE IS A LOW RISK
FOR A FEW STORMS LATE IN THE DAY TO POSSIBLY CLIP WESTERN MA.
OTHERWISE REMAINDER OF THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

LOW CLOUDS...PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY IMPACT PARTS OF RI
AND SOUTHEAST MA THIS MORNING...AS STRATUS ALREADY DEVELOPING AND
OVERSPREADING THIS REGION. THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD ERODE OR
LIFT INTO A STRATOCU DECK BY AFTERNOON...YIELDING PARTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS. ELSEWHERE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL.

SOUTH-SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS RESULTED IN DEW PTS RISING
OVERNIGHT INTO THE 60S TO AROUND 70 ACROSS RI AND SOUTHEAST MA. THUS
MORE HUMID THAN YESTERDAY. WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
RESULT IN TEMPS MAKING A RUN AT 90 AWAY FROM THE SOUTH COAST.
THEREFORE MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE HIGHS TODAY 85 TO 90. AN
INCREASING SSW WIND OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON WILL HELP TAKE SOME OF THE EDGE OFF THE WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...

*** POSSIBLE STRONG TO SEVERE T-STORMS LATER TONIGHT INTO TUE ***

TONIGHT...

MORE POTENT TRAILING SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND FROM THE WEST. THIS IS QUITE EVIDENT IN WIND FIELDS ALOFT
WHERE 500 MB SPEEDS APPROACH 50 KTS! THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH COOLS H5
TEMPS TO -11C/-12C. THIS COMBINED WITH SURFACE DEW PTS INCREASING
INTO THE U60S AND L70S PROVIDES MUCAPES GREATER THAN 2000J/KG AND
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 6.5 AND 7.0C/KM BY 12Z TUE ACROSS RI
AND EASTERN MA PER 00Z EC AND 00Z GFS! EVEN THE COURSE 00Z GEFS HAS
THE SAME SIGNAL AND STRENGTH. THIS AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY COMBINED
WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR UP TO 50 KT PROVIDES AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE
FOR SEVERE STORMS. ONLY UNCERTAINTY IS WILL THERE BE ENOUGH FORCING
FOR ASCENT TO UNLEASH THIS STRONG INSTABILITY. MIXED SIGNALS WITHIN
THE GUIDANCE WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF NOT GENERATING MUCH QPF TONIGHT
WHILE THE HI RES GUID NMM AND ARW HAVE CONVECTION BUT WEAKENING AS
IT CROSSES THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST. SOMEWHAT DISCOUNTING THE NAM
GIVEN IT/S HIGH BIASED DEW PTS AND CORRESPONDING INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS.

THUS LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
CONVECTION. HOWEVER IF STORMS CAN FIRE STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS WILL
BE A CONCERN. LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS IMPRESSIVE TOO ALONG WITH
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND LOW LCLS /HIGH DEW PTS/ FOR A LOW RISK OF
AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

IT WILL BE A WARM AND HUMID NIGHT WITH DEW PTS RISING THROUGH THE
U60S AND L70S.

TUESDAY...

FORECAST UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES AS AREAL COVERAGE OF NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION AND CLOUD DEBRIS FROM TONIGHT WILL IMPACT IF NEW
CONVECTION FIRES DURING THE DAY TUES. SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA ALONG WITH ATTENDING SURFACE TROUGH. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE
ENOUGH FORCING FOR ASCENT TO INITIATE CONVECTION. DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE FOCUSED ACROSS RI AND EASTERN
MA. THUS RISK OF STORMS GREATEST ACROSS THIS AREA. WINDS FIELDS
REMAIN IMPRESSIVE SO RISK OF STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS CONTINUES.

ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S ALONG WITH DEW PTS IN
THE U60S TO L70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE AROUND FRIDAY
* TEMPERATURES TRENDING BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN DESCENT AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER JAMES BAY WILL BEGIN ITS EASTWARD
MOVEMENT TOWARDS THE MARITIMES. ELONGATED TROUGH WILL SET UP OVER
THE REGION BEFORE TRENDING TOWARDS A ZONAL FLOW. SEVERAL SOUTHERN
STREAM WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH AND TRIES TO BRING A FEW COASTAL
SYSTEMS TOWARDS SNE. THE PATTERN DOES NOT SEEM THAT AMPLIFIED TO
MAKE IT A CLASSIC COASTAL LOW...HOWEVER UPPER LEVEL JET MAY BRING A
FEW SYSTEMS JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY AT
THE END OF THE WEEK...TRENDED TOWARDS THE ENSEMBLES WHICH INDICATE
PRECIP AROUND LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AND AGAIN POSSIBLE
SATURDAY/SUNDAY. THIS UNSEASONABLE PATTERN WILL LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS AS COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR CYCLONIC FLOW AND
COLD AIR ALOFT...RESULTING IN A FEW AFTERNOON INSTABILITY SHOWERS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE A MIX OF CLOUDS AND
SUNSHINE.

CYCLONIC FLOW WILL STILL BE ALOFT BY THURSDAY BUT COLD AIR ALOFT
WILL BE FOCUS MORE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THEREFORE BELIEVE
THURSDAY WILL BE DRY WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL BOTH DAYS WITH SNE REACHING
INTO THE 80S ON WEDNESDAYS BUT BELOW 80 ON THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL TRY TO DEVELOP A SOUTHERN WAVE DURING THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK. BOTH ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AS WELL AS THE OPERATIONS
EC BRINGS PRECIP TO THE REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THEREFORE
HAVE INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST WHERE
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST. SNE WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THIS
SYSTEM SO ANY SHIFT IN THE PATTERN WILL MOVE THE PRECIP CHC FOR THE
REGION. FINALLY BEING ON THE NORTH-SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE UNSEASONABLE COOLER. IN FACT TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO
GET ABOVE 80F.

SATURDAY AND BEYOND...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE TRIES TO DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON IF THE PATTERN WILL BRING THIS LOW TO SNE. HAVE KEPT A
LOW CHC AS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FLIP-FLOP DURING THE TIMEFRAME.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE OVER THE WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CONUS BEGINS TO BUILD
AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TODAY...VFR AND DRY WEATHER FOR MOST TERMINALS. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF MA AND RI WHERE PATCHY IFR IN FOG AND
DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...THEN BURNING OFF BY MIDDAY.
ALSO T-STORMS IN NY STATE THIS AFTERNOON MAY CLIP WESTERN MA LATE
IN THE DAY. SSW WINDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO
20-25 KT POSSIBLE. MODERATE TO HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
POTENTIAL T-STORMS. THUS LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST HERE. VFR TO
START BUT LOWERING TO MVFR AND PROBABLY IFR IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
ACROSS RI AND SOUTHEAST MA.

TUESDAY...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
POTENTIAL T-STORMS. THUS LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST HERE. A MIX OF
MVFR AND IFR IN THE MORNING AS LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IMPACT THE
TERMINALS. LIKELY IMPROVING TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TODAY THEN LOWERING TONIGHT
AND TUE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TODAY THEN LOWERING TONIGHT
AND TUE.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. COULD SEE MVFR IN
SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND
MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE BUT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN. LATEST INDICATIONS ARE
THAT BEST CHANCE FOR WET WEATHER WILL BE ON FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...

SSW WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. SEAS
INCREASE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH COASTAL WATERS. PATCHY FOG AND
DRIZZLE IMPACT THE SOUTH WATERS THIS MORNING. IMPROVING THIS
AFTERNOON. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...

SSW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. GUSTS UP TO 25 KT POSSIBLE. PATCHY FOG WILL
LIMIT VSBY. A FEW STRONG T-STORMS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LOW CONFIDENCE ON T-STORM FORECAST.

TUESDAY...

SSW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT POSSIBLE. PATCHY
MORNING FOG MAY REDUCE VSBY. A FEW STRONG T-STORMS POSSIBLE. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON T-STORM FORECAST.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. W/SW WINDS BELOW SCA BUT GUSTS TO
20 KT POSSIBLE. SEAS SUBSIDING.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DEPEND ON
TRACK AND TIMING OF LOW PRES APPROACHING THE REGION. COULD SEE A
PERIOD OF GUSTY NE WINDS...ESPECIALLY FRI.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...NOCERA/DUNTEN
MARINE...NOCERA/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 030819
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
419 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER PREVAILS MUCH OF TODAY THEN THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS THIS EVENING INTO TUE. DRY...WARM AND LESS
HUMID WEATHER ARRIVES WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY. A
PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE TIMING OF POTENTIAL WET
WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

4 AM UPDATE...

QUITE THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE OH VLY.
MODELS APPEAR TO BE SIMULATING THIS CONVECTION FAIRLY WELL SO
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH REGARDING TODAY/S FORECAST FOR SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT LEAD SHORT WAVE OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WILL EJECT NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN NY STATE TODAY AND
THEN INTO NORTHERN VT AND ST LWRN RVR VLY THEREAFTER. THIS RESULTS
IN LITTLE IF ANY HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY.
THUS SHOULD BE ENOUGH EAST COAST RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL
DRY AIR TO PRECLUDE ANY STORMS FROM FORMING OR TRACKING INTO THE
AREA. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS ACROSS WESTERN MA...CLOSER TO THE JET
ENERGY/MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AXIS. THEREFORE THERE IS A LOW RISK
FOR A FEW STORMS LATE IN THE DAY TO POSSIBLY CLIP WESTERN MA.
OTHERWISE REMAINDER OF THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

LOW CLOUDS...PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY IMPACT PARTS OF RI
AND SOUTHEAST MA THIS MORNING...AS STRATUS ALREADY DEVELOPING AND
OVERSPREADING THIS REGION. THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD ERODE OR
LIFT INTO A STRATOCU DECK BY AFTERNOON...YIELDING PARTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS. ELSEWHERE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL.

SOUTH-SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS RESULTED IN DEW PTS RISING
OVERNIGHT INTO THE 60S TO AROUND 70 ACROSS RI AND SOUTHEAST MA. THUS
MORE HUMID THAN YESTERDAY. WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
RESULT IN TEMPS MAKING A RUN AT 90 AWAY FROM THE SOUTH COAST.
THEREFORE MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE HIGHS TODAY 85 TO 90. AN
INCREASING SSW WIND OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON WILL HELP TAKE SOME OF THE EDGE OFF THE WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...

*** POSSIBLE STRONG TO SEVERE T-STORMS LATER TONIGHT INTO TUE ***

TONIGHT...

MORE POTENT TRAILING SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND FROM THE WEST. THIS IS QUITE EVIDENT IN WIND FIELDS ALOFT
WHERE 500 MB SPEEDS APPROACH 50 KTS! THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH COOLS H5
TEMPS TO -11C/-12C. THIS COMBINED WITH SURFACE DEW PTS INCREASING
INTO THE U60S AND L70S PROVIDES MUCAPES GREATER THAN 2000J/KG AND
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 6.5 AND 7.0C/KM BY 12Z TUE ACROSS RI
AND EASTERN MA PER 00Z EC AND 00Z GFS! EVEN THE COURSE 00Z GEFS HAS
THE SAME SIGNAL AND STRENGTH. THIS AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY COMBINED
WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR UP TO 50 KT PROVIDES AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE
FOR SEVERE STORMS. ONLY UNCERTAINTY IS WILL THERE BE ENOUGH FORCING
FOR ASCENT TO UNLEASH THIS STRONG INSTABILITY. MIXED SIGNALS WITHIN
THE GUIDANCE WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF NOT GENERATING MUCH QPF TONIGHT
WHILE THE HI RES GUID NMM AND ARW HAVE CONVECTION BUT WEAKENING AS
IT CROSSES THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST. SOMEWHAT DISCOUNTING THE NAM
GIVEN IT/S HIGH BIASED DEW PTS AND CORRESPONDING INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS.

THUS LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
CONVECTION. HOWEVER IF STORMS CAN FIRE STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS WILL
BE A CONCERN. LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS IMPRESSIVE TOO ALONG WITH
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND LOW LCLS /HIGH DEW PTS/ FOR A LOW RISK OF
AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

IT WILL BE A WARM AND HUMID NIGHT WITH DEW PTS RISING THROUGH THE
U60S AND L70S.

TUESDAY...

FORECAST UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES AS AREAL COVERAGE OF NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION AND CLOUD DEBRIS FROM TONIGHT WILL IMPACT IF NEW
CONVECTION FIRES DURING THE DAY TUES. SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA ALONG WITH ATTENDING SURFACE TROUGH. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE
ENOUGH FORCING FOR ASCENT TO INITIATE CONVECTION. DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE FOCUSED ACROSS RI AND EASTERN
MA. THUS RISK OF STORMS GREATEST ACROSS THIS AREA. WINDS FIELDS
REMAIN IMPRESSIVE SO RISK OF STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS CONTINUES.

ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S ALONG WITH DEW PTS IN
THE U60S TO L70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE AROUND FRIDAY
* TEMPERATURES TRENDING BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN DESCENT AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER JAMES BAY WILL BEGIN ITS EASTWARD
MOVEMENT TOWARDS THE MARITIMES. ELONGATED TROUGH WILL SET UP OVER
THE REGION BEFORE TRENDING TOWARDS A ZONAL FLOW. SEVERAL SOUTHERN
STREAM WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH AND TRIES TO BRING A FEW COASTAL
SYSTEMS TOWARDS SNE. THE PATTERN DOES NOT SEEM THAT AMPLIFIED TO
MAKE IT A CLASSIC COASTAL LOW...HOWEVER UPPER LEVEL JET MAY BRING A
FEW SYSTEMS JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY AT
THE END OF THE WEEK...TRENDED TOWARDS THE ENSEMBLES WHICH INDICATE
PRECIP AROUND LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AND AGAIN POSSIBLE
SATURDAY/SUNDAY. THIS UNSEASONABLE PATTERN WILL LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS AS COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR CYCLONIC FLOW AND
COLD AIR ALOFT...RESULTING IN A FEW AFTERNOON INSTABILITY SHOWERS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE A MIX OF CLOUDS AND
SUNSHINE.

CYCLONIC FLOW WILL STILL BE ALOFT BY THURSDAY BUT COLD AIR ALOFT
WILL BE FOCUS MORE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THEREFORE BELIEVE
THURSDAY WILL BE DRY WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL BOTH DAYS WITH SNE REACHING
INTO THE 80S ON WEDNESDAYS BUT BELOW 80 ON THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL TRY TO DEVELOP A SOUTHERN WAVE DURING THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK. BOTH ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AS WELL AS THE OPERATIONS
EC BRINGS PRECIP TO THE REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THEREFORE
HAVE INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST WHERE
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST. SNE WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THIS
SYSTEM SO ANY SHIFT IN THE PATTERN WILL MOVE THE PRECIP CHC FOR THE
REGION. FINALLY BEING ON THE NORTH-SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE UNSEASONABLE COOLER. IN FACT TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO
GET ABOVE 80F.

SATURDAY AND BEYOND...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE TRIES TO DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON IF THE PATTERN WILL BRING THIS LOW TO SNE. HAVE KEPT A
LOW CHC AS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FLIP-FLOP DURING THE TIMEFRAME.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE OVER THE WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CONUS BEGINS TO BUILD
AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TODAY...VFR AND DRY WEATHER FOR MOST TERMINALS. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF MA AND RI WHERE PATCHY IFR IN FOG AND
DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...THEN BURNING OFF BY MIDDAY.
ALSO T-STORMS IN NY STATE THIS AFTERNOON MAY CLIP WESTERN MA LATE
IN THE DAY. SSW WINDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO
20-25 KT POSSIBLE. MODERATE TO HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
POTENTIAL T-STORMS. THUS LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST HERE. VFR TO
START BUT LOWERING TO MVFR AND PROBABLY IFR IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
ACROSS RI AND SOUTHEAST MA.

TUESDAY...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
POTENTIAL T-STORMS. THUS LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST HERE. A MIX OF
MVFR AND IFR IN THE MORNING AS LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IMPACT THE
TERMINALS. LIKELY IMPROVING TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TODAY THEN LOWERING TONIGHT
AND TUE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TODAY THEN LOWERING TONIGHT
AND TUE.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. COULD SEE MVFR IN
SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND
MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE BUT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN. LATEST INDICATIONS ARE
THAT BEST CHANCE FOR WET WEATHER WILL BE ON FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...

SSW WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. SEAS
INCREASE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH COASTAL WATERS. PATCHY FOG AND
DRIZZLE IMPACT THE SOUTH WATERS THIS MORNING. IMPROVING THIS
AFTERNOON. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...

SSW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. GUSTS UP TO 25 KT POSSIBLE. PATCHY FOG WILL
LIMIT VSBY. A FEW STRONG T-STORMS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LOW CONFIDENCE ON T-STORM FORECAST.

TUESDAY...

SSW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT POSSIBLE. PATCHY
MORNING FOG MAY REDUCE VSBY. A FEW STRONG T-STORMS POSSIBLE. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON T-STORM FORECAST.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. W/SW WINDS BELOW SCA BUT GUSTS TO
20 KT POSSIBLE. SEAS SUBSIDING.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DEPEND ON
TRACK AND TIMING OF LOW PRES APPROACHING THE REGION. COULD SEE A
PERIOD OF GUSTY NE WINDS...ESPECIALLY FRI.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...NOCERA/DUNTEN
MARINE...NOCERA/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 030819
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
419 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER PREVAILS MUCH OF TODAY THEN THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS THIS EVENING INTO TUE. DRY...WARM AND LESS
HUMID WEATHER ARRIVES WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY. A
PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE TIMING OF POTENTIAL WET
WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

4 AM UPDATE...

QUITE THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE OH VLY.
MODELS APPEAR TO BE SIMULATING THIS CONVECTION FAIRLY WELL SO
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH REGARDING TODAY/S FORECAST FOR SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT LEAD SHORT WAVE OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WILL EJECT NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN NY STATE TODAY AND
THEN INTO NORTHERN VT AND ST LWRN RVR VLY THEREAFTER. THIS RESULTS
IN LITTLE IF ANY HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY.
THUS SHOULD BE ENOUGH EAST COAST RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL
DRY AIR TO PRECLUDE ANY STORMS FROM FORMING OR TRACKING INTO THE
AREA. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS ACROSS WESTERN MA...CLOSER TO THE JET
ENERGY/MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AXIS. THEREFORE THERE IS A LOW RISK
FOR A FEW STORMS LATE IN THE DAY TO POSSIBLY CLIP WESTERN MA.
OTHERWISE REMAINDER OF THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

LOW CLOUDS...PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY IMPACT PARTS OF RI
AND SOUTHEAST MA THIS MORNING...AS STRATUS ALREADY DEVELOPING AND
OVERSPREADING THIS REGION. THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD ERODE OR
LIFT INTO A STRATOCU DECK BY AFTERNOON...YIELDING PARTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS. ELSEWHERE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL.

SOUTH-SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS RESULTED IN DEW PTS RISING
OVERNIGHT INTO THE 60S TO AROUND 70 ACROSS RI AND SOUTHEAST MA. THUS
MORE HUMID THAN YESTERDAY. WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
RESULT IN TEMPS MAKING A RUN AT 90 AWAY FROM THE SOUTH COAST.
THEREFORE MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE HIGHS TODAY 85 TO 90. AN
INCREASING SSW WIND OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON WILL HELP TAKE SOME OF THE EDGE OFF THE WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...

*** POSSIBLE STRONG TO SEVERE T-STORMS LATER TONIGHT INTO TUE ***

TONIGHT...

MORE POTENT TRAILING SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND FROM THE WEST. THIS IS QUITE EVIDENT IN WIND FIELDS ALOFT
WHERE 500 MB SPEEDS APPROACH 50 KTS! THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH COOLS H5
TEMPS TO -11C/-12C. THIS COMBINED WITH SURFACE DEW PTS INCREASING
INTO THE U60S AND L70S PROVIDES MUCAPES GREATER THAN 2000J/KG AND
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 6.5 AND 7.0C/KM BY 12Z TUE ACROSS RI
AND EASTERN MA PER 00Z EC AND 00Z GFS! EVEN THE COURSE 00Z GEFS HAS
THE SAME SIGNAL AND STRENGTH. THIS AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY COMBINED
WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR UP TO 50 KT PROVIDES AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE
FOR SEVERE STORMS. ONLY UNCERTAINTY IS WILL THERE BE ENOUGH FORCING
FOR ASCENT TO UNLEASH THIS STRONG INSTABILITY. MIXED SIGNALS WITHIN
THE GUIDANCE WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF NOT GENERATING MUCH QPF TONIGHT
WHILE THE HI RES GUID NMM AND ARW HAVE CONVECTION BUT WEAKENING AS
IT CROSSES THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST. SOMEWHAT DISCOUNTING THE NAM
GIVEN IT/S HIGH BIASED DEW PTS AND CORRESPONDING INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS.

THUS LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
CONVECTION. HOWEVER IF STORMS CAN FIRE STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS WILL
BE A CONCERN. LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS IMPRESSIVE TOO ALONG WITH
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND LOW LCLS /HIGH DEW PTS/ FOR A LOW RISK OF
AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

IT WILL BE A WARM AND HUMID NIGHT WITH DEW PTS RISING THROUGH THE
U60S AND L70S.

TUESDAY...

FORECAST UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES AS AREAL COVERAGE OF NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION AND CLOUD DEBRIS FROM TONIGHT WILL IMPACT IF NEW
CONVECTION FIRES DURING THE DAY TUES. SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA ALONG WITH ATTENDING SURFACE TROUGH. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE
ENOUGH FORCING FOR ASCENT TO INITIATE CONVECTION. DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE FOCUSED ACROSS RI AND EASTERN
MA. THUS RISK OF STORMS GREATEST ACROSS THIS AREA. WINDS FIELDS
REMAIN IMPRESSIVE SO RISK OF STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS CONTINUES.

ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S ALONG WITH DEW PTS IN
THE U60S TO L70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE AROUND FRIDAY
* TEMPERATURES TRENDING BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN DESCENT AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER JAMES BAY WILL BEGIN ITS EASTWARD
MOVEMENT TOWARDS THE MARITIMES. ELONGATED TROUGH WILL SET UP OVER
THE REGION BEFORE TRENDING TOWARDS A ZONAL FLOW. SEVERAL SOUTHERN
STREAM WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH AND TRIES TO BRING A FEW COASTAL
SYSTEMS TOWARDS SNE. THE PATTERN DOES NOT SEEM THAT AMPLIFIED TO
MAKE IT A CLASSIC COASTAL LOW...HOWEVER UPPER LEVEL JET MAY BRING A
FEW SYSTEMS JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY AT
THE END OF THE WEEK...TRENDED TOWARDS THE ENSEMBLES WHICH INDICATE
PRECIP AROUND LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AND AGAIN POSSIBLE
SATURDAY/SUNDAY. THIS UNSEASONABLE PATTERN WILL LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS AS COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR CYCLONIC FLOW AND
COLD AIR ALOFT...RESULTING IN A FEW AFTERNOON INSTABILITY SHOWERS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE A MIX OF CLOUDS AND
SUNSHINE.

CYCLONIC FLOW WILL STILL BE ALOFT BY THURSDAY BUT COLD AIR ALOFT
WILL BE FOCUS MORE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THEREFORE BELIEVE
THURSDAY WILL BE DRY WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL BOTH DAYS WITH SNE REACHING
INTO THE 80S ON WEDNESDAYS BUT BELOW 80 ON THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL TRY TO DEVELOP A SOUTHERN WAVE DURING THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK. BOTH ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AS WELL AS THE OPERATIONS
EC BRINGS PRECIP TO THE REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THEREFORE
HAVE INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST WHERE
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST. SNE WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THIS
SYSTEM SO ANY SHIFT IN THE PATTERN WILL MOVE THE PRECIP CHC FOR THE
REGION. FINALLY BEING ON THE NORTH-SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE UNSEASONABLE COOLER. IN FACT TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO
GET ABOVE 80F.

SATURDAY AND BEYOND...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE TRIES TO DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON IF THE PATTERN WILL BRING THIS LOW TO SNE. HAVE KEPT A
LOW CHC AS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FLIP-FLOP DURING THE TIMEFRAME.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE OVER THE WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CONUS BEGINS TO BUILD
AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TODAY...VFR AND DRY WEATHER FOR MOST TERMINALS. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF MA AND RI WHERE PATCHY IFR IN FOG AND
DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...THEN BURNING OFF BY MIDDAY.
ALSO T-STORMS IN NY STATE THIS AFTERNOON MAY CLIP WESTERN MA LATE
IN THE DAY. SSW WINDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO
20-25 KT POSSIBLE. MODERATE TO HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
POTENTIAL T-STORMS. THUS LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST HERE. VFR TO
START BUT LOWERING TO MVFR AND PROBABLY IFR IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
ACROSS RI AND SOUTHEAST MA.

TUESDAY...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
POTENTIAL T-STORMS. THUS LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST HERE. A MIX OF
MVFR AND IFR IN THE MORNING AS LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IMPACT THE
TERMINALS. LIKELY IMPROVING TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TODAY THEN LOWERING TONIGHT
AND TUE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TODAY THEN LOWERING TONIGHT
AND TUE.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. COULD SEE MVFR IN
SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND
MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE BUT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN. LATEST INDICATIONS ARE
THAT BEST CHANCE FOR WET WEATHER WILL BE ON FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...

SSW WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. SEAS
INCREASE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH COASTAL WATERS. PATCHY FOG AND
DRIZZLE IMPACT THE SOUTH WATERS THIS MORNING. IMPROVING THIS
AFTERNOON. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...

SSW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. GUSTS UP TO 25 KT POSSIBLE. PATCHY FOG WILL
LIMIT VSBY. A FEW STRONG T-STORMS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LOW CONFIDENCE ON T-STORM FORECAST.

TUESDAY...

SSW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT POSSIBLE. PATCHY
MORNING FOG MAY REDUCE VSBY. A FEW STRONG T-STORMS POSSIBLE. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON T-STORM FORECAST.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. W/SW WINDS BELOW SCA BUT GUSTS TO
20 KT POSSIBLE. SEAS SUBSIDING.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DEPEND ON
TRACK AND TIMING OF LOW PRES APPROACHING THE REGION. COULD SEE A
PERIOD OF GUSTY NE WINDS...ESPECIALLY FRI.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...NOCERA/DUNTEN
MARINE...NOCERA/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 030819
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
419 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER PREVAILS MUCH OF TODAY THEN THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS THIS EVENING INTO TUE. DRY...WARM AND LESS
HUMID WEATHER ARRIVES WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY. A
PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE TIMING OF POTENTIAL WET
WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

4 AM UPDATE...

QUITE THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE OH VLY.
MODELS APPEAR TO BE SIMULATING THIS CONVECTION FAIRLY WELL SO
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH REGARDING TODAY/S FORECAST FOR SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT LEAD SHORT WAVE OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WILL EJECT NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN NY STATE TODAY AND
THEN INTO NORTHERN VT AND ST LWRN RVR VLY THEREAFTER. THIS RESULTS
IN LITTLE IF ANY HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY.
THUS SHOULD BE ENOUGH EAST COAST RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL
DRY AIR TO PRECLUDE ANY STORMS FROM FORMING OR TRACKING INTO THE
AREA. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS ACROSS WESTERN MA...CLOSER TO THE JET
ENERGY/MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AXIS. THEREFORE THERE IS A LOW RISK
FOR A FEW STORMS LATE IN THE DAY TO POSSIBLY CLIP WESTERN MA.
OTHERWISE REMAINDER OF THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

LOW CLOUDS...PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY IMPACT PARTS OF RI
AND SOUTHEAST MA THIS MORNING...AS STRATUS ALREADY DEVELOPING AND
OVERSPREADING THIS REGION. THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD ERODE OR
LIFT INTO A STRATOCU DECK BY AFTERNOON...YIELDING PARTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS. ELSEWHERE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL.

SOUTH-SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS RESULTED IN DEW PTS RISING
OVERNIGHT INTO THE 60S TO AROUND 70 ACROSS RI AND SOUTHEAST MA. THUS
MORE HUMID THAN YESTERDAY. WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
RESULT IN TEMPS MAKING A RUN AT 90 AWAY FROM THE SOUTH COAST.
THEREFORE MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE HIGHS TODAY 85 TO 90. AN
INCREASING SSW WIND OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON WILL HELP TAKE SOME OF THE EDGE OFF THE WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...

*** POSSIBLE STRONG TO SEVERE T-STORMS LATER TONIGHT INTO TUE ***

TONIGHT...

MORE POTENT TRAILING SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND FROM THE WEST. THIS IS QUITE EVIDENT IN WIND FIELDS ALOFT
WHERE 500 MB SPEEDS APPROACH 50 KTS! THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH COOLS H5
TEMPS TO -11C/-12C. THIS COMBINED WITH SURFACE DEW PTS INCREASING
INTO THE U60S AND L70S PROVIDES MUCAPES GREATER THAN 2000J/KG AND
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 6.5 AND 7.0C/KM BY 12Z TUE ACROSS RI
AND EASTERN MA PER 00Z EC AND 00Z GFS! EVEN THE COURSE 00Z GEFS HAS
THE SAME SIGNAL AND STRENGTH. THIS AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY COMBINED
WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR UP TO 50 KT PROVIDES AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE
FOR SEVERE STORMS. ONLY UNCERTAINTY IS WILL THERE BE ENOUGH FORCING
FOR ASCENT TO UNLEASH THIS STRONG INSTABILITY. MIXED SIGNALS WITHIN
THE GUIDANCE WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF NOT GENERATING MUCH QPF TONIGHT
WHILE THE HI RES GUID NMM AND ARW HAVE CONVECTION BUT WEAKENING AS
IT CROSSES THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST. SOMEWHAT DISCOUNTING THE NAM
GIVEN IT/S HIGH BIASED DEW PTS AND CORRESPONDING INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS.

THUS LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
CONVECTION. HOWEVER IF STORMS CAN FIRE STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS WILL
BE A CONCERN. LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS IMPRESSIVE TOO ALONG WITH
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND LOW LCLS /HIGH DEW PTS/ FOR A LOW RISK OF
AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

IT WILL BE A WARM AND HUMID NIGHT WITH DEW PTS RISING THROUGH THE
U60S AND L70S.

TUESDAY...

FORECAST UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES AS AREAL COVERAGE OF NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION AND CLOUD DEBRIS FROM TONIGHT WILL IMPACT IF NEW
CONVECTION FIRES DURING THE DAY TUES. SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA ALONG WITH ATTENDING SURFACE TROUGH. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE
ENOUGH FORCING FOR ASCENT TO INITIATE CONVECTION. DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE FOCUSED ACROSS RI AND EASTERN
MA. THUS RISK OF STORMS GREATEST ACROSS THIS AREA. WINDS FIELDS
REMAIN IMPRESSIVE SO RISK OF STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS CONTINUES.

ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S ALONG WITH DEW PTS IN
THE U60S TO L70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE AROUND FRIDAY
* TEMPERATURES TRENDING BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN DESCENT AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER JAMES BAY WILL BEGIN ITS EASTWARD
MOVEMENT TOWARDS THE MARITIMES. ELONGATED TROUGH WILL SET UP OVER
THE REGION BEFORE TRENDING TOWARDS A ZONAL FLOW. SEVERAL SOUTHERN
STREAM WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH AND TRIES TO BRING A FEW COASTAL
SYSTEMS TOWARDS SNE. THE PATTERN DOES NOT SEEM THAT AMPLIFIED TO
MAKE IT A CLASSIC COASTAL LOW...HOWEVER UPPER LEVEL JET MAY BRING A
FEW SYSTEMS JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY AT
THE END OF THE WEEK...TRENDED TOWARDS THE ENSEMBLES WHICH INDICATE
PRECIP AROUND LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AND AGAIN POSSIBLE
SATURDAY/SUNDAY. THIS UNSEASONABLE PATTERN WILL LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS AS COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR CYCLONIC FLOW AND
COLD AIR ALOFT...RESULTING IN A FEW AFTERNOON INSTABILITY SHOWERS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE A MIX OF CLOUDS AND
SUNSHINE.

CYCLONIC FLOW WILL STILL BE ALOFT BY THURSDAY BUT COLD AIR ALOFT
WILL BE FOCUS MORE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THEREFORE BELIEVE
THURSDAY WILL BE DRY WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL BOTH DAYS WITH SNE REACHING
INTO THE 80S ON WEDNESDAYS BUT BELOW 80 ON THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL TRY TO DEVELOP A SOUTHERN WAVE DURING THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK. BOTH ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AS WELL AS THE OPERATIONS
EC BRINGS PRECIP TO THE REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THEREFORE
HAVE INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST WHERE
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST. SNE WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THIS
SYSTEM SO ANY SHIFT IN THE PATTERN WILL MOVE THE PRECIP CHC FOR THE
REGION. FINALLY BEING ON THE NORTH-SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE UNSEASONABLE COOLER. IN FACT TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO
GET ABOVE 80F.

SATURDAY AND BEYOND...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE TRIES TO DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON IF THE PATTERN WILL BRING THIS LOW TO SNE. HAVE KEPT A
LOW CHC AS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FLIP-FLOP DURING THE TIMEFRAME.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE OVER THE WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CONUS BEGINS TO BUILD
AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TODAY...VFR AND DRY WEATHER FOR MOST TERMINALS. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF MA AND RI WHERE PATCHY IFR IN FOG AND
DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...THEN BURNING OFF BY MIDDAY.
ALSO T-STORMS IN NY STATE THIS AFTERNOON MAY CLIP WESTERN MA LATE
IN THE DAY. SSW WINDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO
20-25 KT POSSIBLE. MODERATE TO HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
POTENTIAL T-STORMS. THUS LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST HERE. VFR TO
START BUT LOWERING TO MVFR AND PROBABLY IFR IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
ACROSS RI AND SOUTHEAST MA.

TUESDAY...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
POTENTIAL T-STORMS. THUS LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST HERE. A MIX OF
MVFR AND IFR IN THE MORNING AS LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IMPACT THE
TERMINALS. LIKELY IMPROVING TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TODAY THEN LOWERING TONIGHT
AND TUE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TODAY THEN LOWERING TONIGHT
AND TUE.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. COULD SEE MVFR IN
SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND
MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE BUT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN. LATEST INDICATIONS ARE
THAT BEST CHANCE FOR WET WEATHER WILL BE ON FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...

SSW WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. SEAS
INCREASE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH COASTAL WATERS. PATCHY FOG AND
DRIZZLE IMPACT THE SOUTH WATERS THIS MORNING. IMPROVING THIS
AFTERNOON. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...

SSW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. GUSTS UP TO 25 KT POSSIBLE. PATCHY FOG WILL
LIMIT VSBY. A FEW STRONG T-STORMS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LOW CONFIDENCE ON T-STORM FORECAST.

TUESDAY...

SSW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT POSSIBLE. PATCHY
MORNING FOG MAY REDUCE VSBY. A FEW STRONG T-STORMS POSSIBLE. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON T-STORM FORECAST.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. W/SW WINDS BELOW SCA BUT GUSTS TO
20 KT POSSIBLE. SEAS SUBSIDING.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DEPEND ON
TRACK AND TIMING OF LOW PRES APPROACHING THE REGION. COULD SEE A
PERIOD OF GUSTY NE WINDS...ESPECIALLY FRI.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...NOCERA/DUNTEN
MARINE...NOCERA/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KOKX 030759
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
359 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA LATE TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR JAMES BAY IS PULLING A COLD FRONT SLOWLY ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES. MUCH OF THE CONVECTION FROM LAKE ONTARIO WEST TO
CHICAGO CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. DEW POINT TEMPS NEAR 70 OVER LONG
ISLAND AND COASTAL CT SUPPORTS THE FORMATION OF PATCHY FOG FOR
SUNRISE THERE. OTHERWISE...A SUNNY START TO THE DAY.

BASED ON LATEST NWP...WILL KEEP ALL AREAS DRY TODAY.

DESPITE TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 90S...INSTABILITY IS NOT IMPRESSIVE
WITH DEW POINT TEMPS AROUND 60. BULK SHEAR IS AROUND 30 KTS...BUT
STILL LOW. NCAR ENSEMBLE IS DRY AS ARE LOCAL STONY BROOK WRF RUNS
AND THE NCEP DETERMINISTIC RUNS. ONLY EXCEPTION TO NO CONVECTION
IS THE SPC WRF WHICH GENERATES A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER AROUND 3 PM
LOCAL IN NORTH JERSEY THAT TRACKS ENE ACROSS THE CITY. THE
OPERATIONAL HIRES RUN HAS SOME IDEA ABOUT THIS AS WELL...BUT LESS
INTENSE AND LESS COVERAGE.

BASED ON THE THEMODYNAMIC ANALYSIS...WILL STICK WITH A DRY FCST.

TEMPS ARE TOWARDS THE WARMER GFS MOS NUMBER.

SEA BREEZE ENHANCED WITH THE AMBROSE JET EFFECT AND GUSTS TO NEAR
30 MPH LATE THIS AFTN OVER WESTERN LONG ISLAND. AS SUCH...THERE IS
A HIGH RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE OCEAN
BEACHES TODAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES. A RIP CURRENT STATEMENT
IS IN EFFECT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT SAGS INTO THE REGION BY TUESDAY MORNING AND THEN
BECOMES DIFFUSE. RATHER UNCERTAIN ON DETAILS FOR PCPN IN THIS
PERIOD. HAVE CONTINUED THE IDEA OF SCT CONVECTION INTO TUESDAY
MORNING.

TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER
90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DEEP CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
INTO EASTERN CANADA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY. MUCH
DRIER AIR MOVES IN ON WEDNESDAY WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 50S. SOME
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES IN
THE AFTERNOON...BUT FEEL AT THIS TIME THE AIR MASS WILL BE TOO DRY
FOR ANY SHOWERS. HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST DRY FOR WEDNESDAY.

BY THURSDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON A PIECE OF ENERGY
INTERACTING WITH THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THIS SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MAY THEN MOVE ALONG THE BASE OF THE TROUGH THROUGH THE AREA
LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE AREA AND
MAY IMPACT THE REGION. THE 18Z SUN AND 00Z MONDAY GFS ARE FLATTER
WITH THE WAVE AND THUS KEEP LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE AREA COMPARED
TO ITS PREVIOUS 12Z SUNDAY RUN...WHILE THE 00Z MONDAY ECMWF IS
CONSISTENT WITH ITS 12Z RUN FROM SUNDAY INDICATING A MORE AMPLIFIED
SHORTWAVE. THIS MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION WOULD BRING THE BOUNDARY AND
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE CLOSER TO THE REGION. THE 00Z MONDAY CMC IS
THE MOST AMPLIFIED AND BRINGS THE LOW OVER THE AREA FRIDAY. THE 00Z
GFS APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER AS THE 00Z GEFS ARE FURTHER NORTH WITH
THE LOW AND MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE SHORTWAVE. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE
LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC LIFT TO WORK WITH...AS THE REGION LOOKS TO LIE
IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET OVER NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WOULD BE A POSSIBILITY IF
THE MORE AMPLIFIED AND FURTHER NORTH SOLUTIONS COME TO FRUITION.
HAVE CONTINUED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST OF CHANCE POPS DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME FRAME.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE OFFSHORE LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO
THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY...AND THEN
AVERAGE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE REST OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

MAINLY VFR...WITH EXCEPTION OF KGON THIS MORNING WHICH SHOULD
FLUCTUATE BETWEEN VFR AND IFR WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW.

LIGHT S/SW FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING...INCREASES MID TO LATE MORNING
AND BECOMES GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON. STRONG SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT
EXPECTED AT COASTAL TERMINALS. THERE IS A LOW PROB FOR SE SEABREEZE
TO WORK INTO KEWR/KTEB.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDER LATE AT KSWF. WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY A PROB30 GROUP. ELSEWHERE...PROBABILITIES ARE TO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE OF GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE SEABREEZE. TIMING OF GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY +/- HOUR.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY +/- HOUR.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CHANCE OF SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT. WINDS MAY
BECOME SOUTHEAST FOR BRIEF PERIOD AFTER 20Z.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CHANCE OF SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT. WINDS MAY
BECOME SOUTHEAST FOR BRIEF PERIOD AFTER 20Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY BE OCCASIONAL THIS AFTERNOON.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS:  HIGH CONFIDENCE OF GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE SEABREEZE. TIMING OF GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY +/- HOUR.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUE THROUGH FRI...
.MON NIGHT-TUE...CHANCE OF TSTMS. COLD FROPA WITH S WINDS
SHIFTING TO W. PATCHY FOG ACROSS OUTLYING TERMINALS MON NIGHT.
.WED...VFR. W FLOW.
.THU-FRI...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS LATE TODAY...MOVING CLOSE TO
THE WATERS TONIGHT. WINDS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT INCREASE MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE LIGHTENING WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE FRONT.

OCEAN SEAS BUILD DUE TO THE INCREASE IN THESE WINDS. SCA
STARTING AT 4 PM LOCAL AND THROUGH TONIGHT. OCCASIONAL 25 KT
GUSTS POSSIBLE FOR NY HARBOR...WESTERN SOUTH SHORE BAYS AND
WESTERN LI SOUND LATE MONDAY AFT INTO MONDAY EVENING.

OCEAN SEAS WILL BE SUBSIDING TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT 5 FT SEAS MAY
LINGER ON THE EASTERN OCEAN UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY WITH SUB SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MAY PASS OVER THE WATERS FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK. OCCASIONAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL PRODUCT LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL...WHICH COULD LEAD TO MINOR POOR DRAINAGE NUISANCE FLOODING.

A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...A LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THIS
POTENTIAL EVENT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
     THIS EVENING FOR NYZ075-080-081-178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/TONGUE
NEAR TERM...TONGUE
SHORT TERM...TONGUE
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...DS/TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...DS/TONGUE




000
FXUS61 KOKX 030759
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
359 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA LATE TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR JAMES BAY IS PULLING A COLD FRONT SLOWLY ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES. MUCH OF THE CONVECTION FROM LAKE ONTARIO WEST TO
CHICAGO CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. DEW POINT TEMPS NEAR 70 OVER LONG
ISLAND AND COASTAL CT SUPPORTS THE FORMATION OF PATCHY FOG FOR
SUNRISE THERE. OTHERWISE...A SUNNY START TO THE DAY.

BASED ON LATEST NWP...WILL KEEP ALL AREAS DRY TODAY.

DESPITE TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 90S...INSTABILITY IS NOT IMPRESSIVE
WITH DEW POINT TEMPS AROUND 60. BULK SHEAR IS AROUND 30 KTS...BUT
STILL LOW. NCAR ENSEMBLE IS DRY AS ARE LOCAL STONY BROOK WRF RUNS
AND THE NCEP DETERMINISTIC RUNS. ONLY EXCEPTION TO NO CONVECTION
IS THE SPC WRF WHICH GENERATES A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER AROUND 3 PM
LOCAL IN NORTH JERSEY THAT TRACKS ENE ACROSS THE CITY. THE
OPERATIONAL HIRES RUN HAS SOME IDEA ABOUT THIS AS WELL...BUT LESS
INTENSE AND LESS COVERAGE.

BASED ON THE THEMODYNAMIC ANALYSIS...WILL STICK WITH A DRY FCST.

TEMPS ARE TOWARDS THE WARMER GFS MOS NUMBER.

SEA BREEZE ENHANCED WITH THE AMBROSE JET EFFECT AND GUSTS TO NEAR
30 MPH LATE THIS AFTN OVER WESTERN LONG ISLAND. AS SUCH...THERE IS
A HIGH RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE OCEAN
BEACHES TODAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES. A RIP CURRENT STATEMENT
IS IN EFFECT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT SAGS INTO THE REGION BY TUESDAY MORNING AND THEN
BECOMES DIFFUSE. RATHER UNCERTAIN ON DETAILS FOR PCPN IN THIS
PERIOD. HAVE CONTINUED THE IDEA OF SCT CONVECTION INTO TUESDAY
MORNING.

TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER
90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DEEP CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
INTO EASTERN CANADA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY. MUCH
DRIER AIR MOVES IN ON WEDNESDAY WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 50S. SOME
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES IN
THE AFTERNOON...BUT FEEL AT THIS TIME THE AIR MASS WILL BE TOO DRY
FOR ANY SHOWERS. HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST DRY FOR WEDNESDAY.

BY THURSDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON A PIECE OF ENERGY
INTERACTING WITH THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THIS SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MAY THEN MOVE ALONG THE BASE OF THE TROUGH THROUGH THE AREA
LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE AREA AND
MAY IMPACT THE REGION. THE 18Z SUN AND 00Z MONDAY GFS ARE FLATTER
WITH THE WAVE AND THUS KEEP LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE AREA COMPARED
TO ITS PREVIOUS 12Z SUNDAY RUN...WHILE THE 00Z MONDAY ECMWF IS
CONSISTENT WITH ITS 12Z RUN FROM SUNDAY INDICATING A MORE AMPLIFIED
SHORTWAVE. THIS MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION WOULD BRING THE BOUNDARY AND
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE CLOSER TO THE REGION. THE 00Z MONDAY CMC IS
THE MOST AMPLIFIED AND BRINGS THE LOW OVER THE AREA FRIDAY. THE 00Z
GFS APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER AS THE 00Z GEFS ARE FURTHER NORTH WITH
THE LOW AND MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE SHORTWAVE. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE
LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC LIFT TO WORK WITH...AS THE REGION LOOKS TO LIE
IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET OVER NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WOULD BE A POSSIBILITY IF
THE MORE AMPLIFIED AND FURTHER NORTH SOLUTIONS COME TO FRUITION.
HAVE CONTINUED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST OF CHANCE POPS DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME FRAME.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE OFFSHORE LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO
THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY...AND THEN
AVERAGE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE REST OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

MAINLY VFR...WITH EXCEPTION OF KGON THIS MORNING WHICH SHOULD
FLUCTUATE BETWEEN VFR AND IFR WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW.

LIGHT S/SW FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING...INCREASES MID TO LATE MORNING
AND BECOMES GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON. STRONG SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT
EXPECTED AT COASTAL TERMINALS. THERE IS A LOW PROB FOR SE SEABREEZE
TO WORK INTO KEWR/KTEB.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDER LATE AT KSWF. WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY A PROB30 GROUP. ELSEWHERE...PROBABILITIES ARE TO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE OF GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE SEABREEZE. TIMING OF GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY +/- HOUR.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY +/- HOUR.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CHANCE OF SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT. WINDS MAY
BECOME SOUTHEAST FOR BRIEF PERIOD AFTER 20Z.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CHANCE OF SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT. WINDS MAY
BECOME SOUTHEAST FOR BRIEF PERIOD AFTER 20Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY BE OCCASIONAL THIS AFTERNOON.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS:  HIGH CONFIDENCE OF GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE SEABREEZE. TIMING OF GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY +/- HOUR.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUE THROUGH FRI...
.MON NIGHT-TUE...CHANCE OF TSTMS. COLD FROPA WITH S WINDS
SHIFTING TO W. PATCHY FOG ACROSS OUTLYING TERMINALS MON NIGHT.
.WED...VFR. W FLOW.
.THU-FRI...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS LATE TODAY...MOVING CLOSE TO
THE WATERS TONIGHT. WINDS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT INCREASE MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE LIGHTENING WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE FRONT.

OCEAN SEAS BUILD DUE TO THE INCREASE IN THESE WINDS. SCA
STARTING AT 4 PM LOCAL AND THROUGH TONIGHT. OCCASIONAL 25 KT
GUSTS POSSIBLE FOR NY HARBOR...WESTERN SOUTH SHORE BAYS AND
WESTERN LI SOUND LATE MONDAY AFT INTO MONDAY EVENING.

OCEAN SEAS WILL BE SUBSIDING TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT 5 FT SEAS MAY
LINGER ON THE EASTERN OCEAN UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY WITH SUB SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MAY PASS OVER THE WATERS FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK. OCCASIONAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL PRODUCT LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL...WHICH COULD LEAD TO MINOR POOR DRAINAGE NUISANCE FLOODING.

A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...A LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THIS
POTENTIAL EVENT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
     THIS EVENING FOR NYZ075-080-081-178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/TONGUE
NEAR TERM...TONGUE
SHORT TERM...TONGUE
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...DS/TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...DS/TONGUE



000
FXUS61 KBOX 030600
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
200 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER PREVAILS MUCH OF TODAY THEN THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS THIS EVENING INTO TUE. AFTER A DRY DAY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE SOMETIME FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
THE TIMING OF POTENTIAL WET WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

2 AM UPDATE...

NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. RETURN SSW FLOW IS
RESULTING IN A MILDER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS THAN PREVIOUS
NIGHTS. DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL BUT THERE IS A LOW RISK OF SOME
PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG ALONG THE SOUTH COAST INTO THE MORNING
HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
AREAS OF FOG...LOW CLOUDS...AND DRIZZLE ON THE SOUTH COAST WILL
DIMINISH BY MIDDAY.

THEN...AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LOW IN ONTARIO WILL HAVE THE MOST
INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER...PARTICULARLY MONDAY NIGHT.  AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO QUEBEC ON MONDAY IT WILL PULL A COLD FRONT
THROUGH NEW YORK STATE AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  MUCH
IF NOT ALL OF MONDAY WILL BE DRY FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS THE
FRONT STAYS TO THE WEST OF THE REGION UNTIL LATE IN THE EVENING.  IF
ANYTHING...A FEW STRAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE INTO
NORTHWESTERN MASSACHUSETTS BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY
EVENING AS THE FRONT APPROACHES.

LIKELY A HOT...HUMID SUMMERY DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AWAY
FROM THE SOUTH COAST WHERE ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOWER 80S.

MONDAY NIGHT IS SOMEWHAT OF A PUZZLE.  THE COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT AND STALLS BY EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING.  ORDINARILY THIS WOULD NOT BE A PARTICULARLY GOOD TIME FOR
STRONG STORMS OR EVEN THUNDERSTORMS AND THE MODELS TEND TO INDICATE
AS MUCH WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF QPF EXHIBITED IN QUITE A FEW
OF THE MODELS.  THIS IS A BIT OF A RED FLAG AS IF WE ARE GOING TO
HAVE STORMS WE HAVE TO HAVE SOME QPF.  HOWEVER...WE ALSO HAVE
INCREASING INSTABILITY THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE DEWPOINTS SHOOT UP
AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  ALL THE MODELS ARE INDICATING THE CAPE
INCREASING TO 1000-2000 J/KG AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE NIGHT.  MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ALSO INCREASE AFTER
06Z TUESDAY. SO CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
ACROSS THE AREA AND EXPECT AT LEAST SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.  THE
GREATEST THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE GUSTY TO DAMAGING WINDS
AND PERHAPS SOME SMALL HAIL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY
* UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO SAT...BUT
  CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON TIMING
* TEMPS TRENDING BELOW NORMAL THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...
MODELS AGREE ON LARGE SCALE PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
FEATURING A BROAD TROF ACROSS THE GT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST...BUT
THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ON THE HANDLING OF SHORTWAVES
ROTATING THROUGH THE FLOW AND TIMING/TRACK OF A WAVE OF LOW PRES
APPROACHING THE REGION TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS HAS AN
IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY REGARDING THE TIMING OF POTENTIAL WET WEATHER.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS TUE WILL TREND BELOW NORMAL TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

DAILIES...

TUESDAY...
COLD FRONT WILL BE NEARLY STATIONARY OR MOVING VERY SLOWLY E ACROSS
SNE DURING THE DAY AS IT WAITS FOR UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO MOVE
THROUGH.  POTENTIAL EML ADVECTS INTO THE REGION WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES NEAR 7 C/KM.  THIS WILL RESULT IN SBCAPES UP TO 2000 J/KG
ACROSS E NEW ENG WHERE DEWPOINTS CLIMB NEAR 70 AHEAD OF THE FRONT. 0-
6KM SHEAR NEAR 40 KT WHERE MAX INSTABILITY SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS...MAINLY E HALF NEW ENG. THE ONE RED FLAG IS
THE GFS/ECMWF NOT GENERATING ANY QPF AS TIMING OF THE FRONT AND HOW
QUICKLY DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST IS NOT CERTAIN SO NOT A
HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST.  IF STORMS DO MATERIALIZE...TIMING WILL BE
EARLIER THAN WHAT IS NORMALLY EXPECTED...LIKELY IN THE MORNING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST
PUSHING INSTABILITY AXIS OFFSHORE. TEMPS WILL REACH WELL INTO THE
80S WITH A FEW LOCATIONS POSSIBLY TOUCHING 90.

WEDNESDAY...
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND COOLER AIR ALOFT MOVE THROUGH NEW ENG. LOW
PROB FOR A FEW SHOWERS AS ATTENDING SFC TROF PROVIDES WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...BUT EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER. TEMPS RANGING FROM MID
70S HIGHER TERRAIN TO LOWER 80S COASTAL PLAIN.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AS MODELS DIFFER ON HANDLING OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY AND LOW PRES APPROACHING THE REGION. IT IS LIKELY THAT A
PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL AFFECT THE REGION BUT TIMING IS
UNCERTAIN. GFS IS AN OUTLIER AND BRINGS A SLUG OF RAIN THROUGH ON
THU WHILE ECMWF/GGEM/UKMET BRING RAIN MOSTLY ON FRI...POSSIBLY
LINGERING INTO SAT. WE HAVE HIGHEST POPS FRI INTO SAT BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. TEMPS BELOW NORMAL.

SUNDAY...LOOKS MAINLY DRY WITH HIGH PRES MOVING INTO THE REGION.
TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

2 AM UPDATE...

TODAY...VFR AND DRY WEATHER FOR MOST TERMINALS. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF MA AND RI WHERE PATCHY IFR IN FOG AND
DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...THEN BURNING OFF BY MIDDAY.
ALSO T-STORMS IN NY STATE THIS AFTERNOON MAY CLIP WESTERN MA LATE
IN THE DAY. SSW WINDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO
20-25 KT POSSIBLE. MODERATE TO HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
POTENTIAL T-STORMS. THUS LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST HERE. VFR TO
START BUT LOWERING TO MVFR AND PROBABLY IFR IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
ACROSS RI AND SOUTHEAST MA.

TUESDAY...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
POTENTIAL T-STORMS. THUS LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST HERE. A MIX OF
MVFR AND IFR IN THE MORNING AS LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IMPACT THE
TERMINALS. LIKELY IMPROVING TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON.


KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TODAY THEN LOWERING TONIGHT
AND TUE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TODAY THEN LOWERING TONIGHT
AND TUE.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND
MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE BUT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN. LATEST INDICATIONS ARE
THAT BEST CHANCE FOR WET WEATHER WILL BE ON FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.  LOW CLOUDS...FOG...AND DRIZZLE ARE LIKELY TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF MASS AND RHODE ISLAND LIMITING
VISIBILITIES AT TIMES.

MONDAY...SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.  SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON SO HAVE HOISTED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR THE OUTER WATERS AND FOR RHODE ISLAND AND BLOCK ISLAND SOUND FOR
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UP FOR OUTER WATERS AND RHODE
ISLAND AND BLOCK ISLAND SOUNDS.  SEAS INCREASE TO 5 TO 6 FEET BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 25 KTS AS
A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE OVER THE WESTERN WATERS.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. A PERIOD OF PREFRONTAL SW GUSTS TO 25
KT POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER THE S COASTAL WATERS INTO TUE
EVENING...THEN WINDS DIMINISHING AND BECOMING WEST OVERNIGHT. SEAS
BUILDING TO 5-7 FT OVER THE OUTER SOUTHERN WATERS.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. W/SW WINDS BELOW SCA BUT GUSTS TO
20 KT POSSIBLE. SEAS SUBSIDING.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DEPEND ON
TRACK AND TIMING OF LOW PRES APPROACHING THE REGION. COULD SEE A
PERIOD OF GUSTY NE WINDS...ESPECIALLY FRI.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/NOCERA
MARINE...KJC/RLG




000
FXUS61 KBOX 030600
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
200 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER PREVAILS MUCH OF TODAY THEN THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS THIS EVENING INTO TUE. AFTER A DRY DAY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE SOMETIME FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
THE TIMING OF POTENTIAL WET WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

2 AM UPDATE...

NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. RETURN SSW FLOW IS
RESULTING IN A MILDER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS THAN PREVIOUS
NIGHTS. DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL BUT THERE IS A LOW RISK OF SOME
PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG ALONG THE SOUTH COAST INTO THE MORNING
HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
AREAS OF FOG...LOW CLOUDS...AND DRIZZLE ON THE SOUTH COAST WILL
DIMINISH BY MIDDAY.

THEN...AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LOW IN ONTARIO WILL HAVE THE MOST
INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER...PARTICULARLY MONDAY NIGHT.  AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO QUEBEC ON MONDAY IT WILL PULL A COLD FRONT
THROUGH NEW YORK STATE AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  MUCH
IF NOT ALL OF MONDAY WILL BE DRY FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS THE
FRONT STAYS TO THE WEST OF THE REGION UNTIL LATE IN THE EVENING.  IF
ANYTHING...A FEW STRAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE INTO
NORTHWESTERN MASSACHUSETTS BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY
EVENING AS THE FRONT APPROACHES.

LIKELY A HOT...HUMID SUMMERY DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AWAY
FROM THE SOUTH COAST WHERE ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOWER 80S.

MONDAY NIGHT IS SOMEWHAT OF A PUZZLE.  THE COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT AND STALLS BY EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING.  ORDINARILY THIS WOULD NOT BE A PARTICULARLY GOOD TIME FOR
STRONG STORMS OR EVEN THUNDERSTORMS AND THE MODELS TEND TO INDICATE
AS MUCH WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF QPF EXHIBITED IN QUITE A FEW
OF THE MODELS.  THIS IS A BIT OF A RED FLAG AS IF WE ARE GOING TO
HAVE STORMS WE HAVE TO HAVE SOME QPF.  HOWEVER...WE ALSO HAVE
INCREASING INSTABILITY THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE DEWPOINTS SHOOT UP
AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  ALL THE MODELS ARE INDICATING THE CAPE
INCREASING TO 1000-2000 J/KG AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE NIGHT.  MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ALSO INCREASE AFTER
06Z TUESDAY. SO CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
ACROSS THE AREA AND EXPECT AT LEAST SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.  THE
GREATEST THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE GUSTY TO DAMAGING WINDS
AND PERHAPS SOME SMALL HAIL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY
* UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO SAT...BUT
  CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON TIMING
* TEMPS TRENDING BELOW NORMAL THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...
MODELS AGREE ON LARGE SCALE PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
FEATURING A BROAD TROF ACROSS THE GT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST...BUT
THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ON THE HANDLING OF SHORTWAVES
ROTATING THROUGH THE FLOW AND TIMING/TRACK OF A WAVE OF LOW PRES
APPROACHING THE REGION TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS HAS AN
IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY REGARDING THE TIMING OF POTENTIAL WET WEATHER.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS TUE WILL TREND BELOW NORMAL TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

DAILIES...

TUESDAY...
COLD FRONT WILL BE NEARLY STATIONARY OR MOVING VERY SLOWLY E ACROSS
SNE DURING THE DAY AS IT WAITS FOR UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO MOVE
THROUGH.  POTENTIAL EML ADVECTS INTO THE REGION WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES NEAR 7 C/KM.  THIS WILL RESULT IN SBCAPES UP TO 2000 J/KG
ACROSS E NEW ENG WHERE DEWPOINTS CLIMB NEAR 70 AHEAD OF THE FRONT. 0-
6KM SHEAR NEAR 40 KT WHERE MAX INSTABILITY SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS...MAINLY E HALF NEW ENG. THE ONE RED FLAG IS
THE GFS/ECMWF NOT GENERATING ANY QPF AS TIMING OF THE FRONT AND HOW
QUICKLY DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST IS NOT CERTAIN SO NOT A
HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST.  IF STORMS DO MATERIALIZE...TIMING WILL BE
EARLIER THAN WHAT IS NORMALLY EXPECTED...LIKELY IN THE MORNING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST
PUSHING INSTABILITY AXIS OFFSHORE. TEMPS WILL REACH WELL INTO THE
80S WITH A FEW LOCATIONS POSSIBLY TOUCHING 90.

WEDNESDAY...
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND COOLER AIR ALOFT MOVE THROUGH NEW ENG. LOW
PROB FOR A FEW SHOWERS AS ATTENDING SFC TROF PROVIDES WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...BUT EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER. TEMPS RANGING FROM MID
70S HIGHER TERRAIN TO LOWER 80S COASTAL PLAIN.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AS MODELS DIFFER ON HANDLING OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY AND LOW PRES APPROACHING THE REGION. IT IS LIKELY THAT A
PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL AFFECT THE REGION BUT TIMING IS
UNCERTAIN. GFS IS AN OUTLIER AND BRINGS A SLUG OF RAIN THROUGH ON
THU WHILE ECMWF/GGEM/UKMET BRING RAIN MOSTLY ON FRI...POSSIBLY
LINGERING INTO SAT. WE HAVE HIGHEST POPS FRI INTO SAT BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. TEMPS BELOW NORMAL.

SUNDAY...LOOKS MAINLY DRY WITH HIGH PRES MOVING INTO THE REGION.
TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

2 AM UPDATE...

TODAY...VFR AND DRY WEATHER FOR MOST TERMINALS. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF MA AND RI WHERE PATCHY IFR IN FOG AND
DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...THEN BURNING OFF BY MIDDAY.
ALSO T-STORMS IN NY STATE THIS AFTERNOON MAY CLIP WESTERN MA LATE
IN THE DAY. SSW WINDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO
20-25 KT POSSIBLE. MODERATE TO HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
POTENTIAL T-STORMS. THUS LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST HERE. VFR TO
START BUT LOWERING TO MVFR AND PROBABLY IFR IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
ACROSS RI AND SOUTHEAST MA.

TUESDAY...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
POTENTIAL T-STORMS. THUS LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST HERE. A MIX OF
MVFR AND IFR IN THE MORNING AS LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IMPACT THE
TERMINALS. LIKELY IMPROVING TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON.


KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TODAY THEN LOWERING TONIGHT
AND TUE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TODAY THEN LOWERING TONIGHT
AND TUE.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND
MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE BUT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN. LATEST INDICATIONS ARE
THAT BEST CHANCE FOR WET WEATHER WILL BE ON FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.  LOW CLOUDS...FOG...AND DRIZZLE ARE LIKELY TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF MASS AND RHODE ISLAND LIMITING
VISIBILITIES AT TIMES.

MONDAY...SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.  SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON SO HAVE HOISTED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR THE OUTER WATERS AND FOR RHODE ISLAND AND BLOCK ISLAND SOUND FOR
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UP FOR OUTER WATERS AND RHODE
ISLAND AND BLOCK ISLAND SOUNDS.  SEAS INCREASE TO 5 TO 6 FEET BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 25 KTS AS
A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE OVER THE WESTERN WATERS.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. A PERIOD OF PREFRONTAL SW GUSTS TO 25
KT POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER THE S COASTAL WATERS INTO TUE
EVENING...THEN WINDS DIMINISHING AND BECOMING WEST OVERNIGHT. SEAS
BUILDING TO 5-7 FT OVER THE OUTER SOUTHERN WATERS.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. W/SW WINDS BELOW SCA BUT GUSTS TO
20 KT POSSIBLE. SEAS SUBSIDING.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DEPEND ON
TRACK AND TIMING OF LOW PRES APPROACHING THE REGION. COULD SEE A
PERIOD OF GUSTY NE WINDS...ESPECIALLY FRI.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/NOCERA
MARINE...KJC/RLG



000
FXUS61 KBOX 030600
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
200 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER PREVAILS MUCH OF TODAY THEN THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS THIS EVENING INTO TUE. AFTER A DRY DAY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE SOMETIME FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
THE TIMING OF POTENTIAL WET WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

2 AM UPDATE...

NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. RETURN SSW FLOW IS
RESULTING IN A MILDER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS THAN PREVIOUS
NIGHTS. DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL BUT THERE IS A LOW RISK OF SOME
PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG ALONG THE SOUTH COAST INTO THE MORNING
HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
AREAS OF FOG...LOW CLOUDS...AND DRIZZLE ON THE SOUTH COAST WILL
DIMINISH BY MIDDAY.

THEN...AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LOW IN ONTARIO WILL HAVE THE MOST
INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER...PARTICULARLY MONDAY NIGHT.  AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO QUEBEC ON MONDAY IT WILL PULL A COLD FRONT
THROUGH NEW YORK STATE AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  MUCH
IF NOT ALL OF MONDAY WILL BE DRY FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS THE
FRONT STAYS TO THE WEST OF THE REGION UNTIL LATE IN THE EVENING.  IF
ANYTHING...A FEW STRAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE INTO
NORTHWESTERN MASSACHUSETTS BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY
EVENING AS THE FRONT APPROACHES.

LIKELY A HOT...HUMID SUMMERY DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AWAY
FROM THE SOUTH COAST WHERE ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOWER 80S.

MONDAY NIGHT IS SOMEWHAT OF A PUZZLE.  THE COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT AND STALLS BY EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING.  ORDINARILY THIS WOULD NOT BE A PARTICULARLY GOOD TIME FOR
STRONG STORMS OR EVEN THUNDERSTORMS AND THE MODELS TEND TO INDICATE
AS MUCH WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF QPF EXHIBITED IN QUITE A FEW
OF THE MODELS.  THIS IS A BIT OF A RED FLAG AS IF WE ARE GOING TO
HAVE STORMS WE HAVE TO HAVE SOME QPF.  HOWEVER...WE ALSO HAVE
INCREASING INSTABILITY THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE DEWPOINTS SHOOT UP
AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  ALL THE MODELS ARE INDICATING THE CAPE
INCREASING TO 1000-2000 J/KG AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE NIGHT.  MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ALSO INCREASE AFTER
06Z TUESDAY. SO CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
ACROSS THE AREA AND EXPECT AT LEAST SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.  THE
GREATEST THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE GUSTY TO DAMAGING WINDS
AND PERHAPS SOME SMALL HAIL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY
* UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO SAT...BUT
  CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON TIMING
* TEMPS TRENDING BELOW NORMAL THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...
MODELS AGREE ON LARGE SCALE PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
FEATURING A BROAD TROF ACROSS THE GT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST...BUT
THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ON THE HANDLING OF SHORTWAVES
ROTATING THROUGH THE FLOW AND TIMING/TRACK OF A WAVE OF LOW PRES
APPROACHING THE REGION TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS HAS AN
IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY REGARDING THE TIMING OF POTENTIAL WET WEATHER.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS TUE WILL TREND BELOW NORMAL TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

DAILIES...

TUESDAY...
COLD FRONT WILL BE NEARLY STATIONARY OR MOVING VERY SLOWLY E ACROSS
SNE DURING THE DAY AS IT WAITS FOR UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO MOVE
THROUGH.  POTENTIAL EML ADVECTS INTO THE REGION WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES NEAR 7 C/KM.  THIS WILL RESULT IN SBCAPES UP TO 2000 J/KG
ACROSS E NEW ENG WHERE DEWPOINTS CLIMB NEAR 70 AHEAD OF THE FRONT. 0-
6KM SHEAR NEAR 40 KT WHERE MAX INSTABILITY SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS...MAINLY E HALF NEW ENG. THE ONE RED FLAG IS
THE GFS/ECMWF NOT GENERATING ANY QPF AS TIMING OF THE FRONT AND HOW
QUICKLY DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST IS NOT CERTAIN SO NOT A
HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST.  IF STORMS DO MATERIALIZE...TIMING WILL BE
EARLIER THAN WHAT IS NORMALLY EXPECTED...LIKELY IN THE MORNING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST
PUSHING INSTABILITY AXIS OFFSHORE. TEMPS WILL REACH WELL INTO THE
80S WITH A FEW LOCATIONS POSSIBLY TOUCHING 90.

WEDNESDAY...
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND COOLER AIR ALOFT MOVE THROUGH NEW ENG. LOW
PROB FOR A FEW SHOWERS AS ATTENDING SFC TROF PROVIDES WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...BUT EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER. TEMPS RANGING FROM MID
70S HIGHER TERRAIN TO LOWER 80S COASTAL PLAIN.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AS MODELS DIFFER ON HANDLING OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY AND LOW PRES APPROACHING THE REGION. IT IS LIKELY THAT A
PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL AFFECT THE REGION BUT TIMING IS
UNCERTAIN. GFS IS AN OUTLIER AND BRINGS A SLUG OF RAIN THROUGH ON
THU WHILE ECMWF/GGEM/UKMET BRING RAIN MOSTLY ON FRI...POSSIBLY
LINGERING INTO SAT. WE HAVE HIGHEST POPS FRI INTO SAT BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. TEMPS BELOW NORMAL.

SUNDAY...LOOKS MAINLY DRY WITH HIGH PRES MOVING INTO THE REGION.
TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

2 AM UPDATE...

TODAY...VFR AND DRY WEATHER FOR MOST TERMINALS. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF MA AND RI WHERE PATCHY IFR IN FOG AND
DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...THEN BURNING OFF BY MIDDAY.
ALSO T-STORMS IN NY STATE THIS AFTERNOON MAY CLIP WESTERN MA LATE
IN THE DAY. SSW WINDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO
20-25 KT POSSIBLE. MODERATE TO HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
POTENTIAL T-STORMS. THUS LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST HERE. VFR TO
START BUT LOWERING TO MVFR AND PROBABLY IFR IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
ACROSS RI AND SOUTHEAST MA.

TUESDAY...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
POTENTIAL T-STORMS. THUS LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST HERE. A MIX OF
MVFR AND IFR IN THE MORNING AS LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IMPACT THE
TERMINALS. LIKELY IMPROVING TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON.


KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TODAY THEN LOWERING TONIGHT
AND TUE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TODAY THEN LOWERING TONIGHT
AND TUE.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND
MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE BUT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN. LATEST INDICATIONS ARE
THAT BEST CHANCE FOR WET WEATHER WILL BE ON FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.  LOW CLOUDS...FOG...AND DRIZZLE ARE LIKELY TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF MASS AND RHODE ISLAND LIMITING
VISIBILITIES AT TIMES.

MONDAY...SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.  SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON SO HAVE HOISTED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR THE OUTER WATERS AND FOR RHODE ISLAND AND BLOCK ISLAND SOUND FOR
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UP FOR OUTER WATERS AND RHODE
ISLAND AND BLOCK ISLAND SOUNDS.  SEAS INCREASE TO 5 TO 6 FEET BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 25 KTS AS
A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE OVER THE WESTERN WATERS.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. A PERIOD OF PREFRONTAL SW GUSTS TO 25
KT POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER THE S COASTAL WATERS INTO TUE
EVENING...THEN WINDS DIMINISHING AND BECOMING WEST OVERNIGHT. SEAS
BUILDING TO 5-7 FT OVER THE OUTER SOUTHERN WATERS.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. W/SW WINDS BELOW SCA BUT GUSTS TO
20 KT POSSIBLE. SEAS SUBSIDING.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DEPEND ON
TRACK AND TIMING OF LOW PRES APPROACHING THE REGION. COULD SEE A
PERIOD OF GUSTY NE WINDS...ESPECIALLY FRI.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/NOCERA
MARINE...KJC/RLG



000
FXUS61 KALY 030558
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
158 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME
OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE ALONG WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS. COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS ARRIVE FOR THE
MID WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 130 AM EDT...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVES TOWARDS JAMES
BAY THIS MORNING. A DECAYING MCS CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO WITH A SFC TROUGH. SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER CONTINUE...BUT
OVERALL THE DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS HAS CAUSED THE
WEAKENING TREND.

A SOUTHERLY BREEZE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN PARTS OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY DUE TO THE SFC HIGH MOVING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. HIGH CLOUDS HAVE INCREASED
NW OF THE CAPITAL REGION WITH THE DECAYING MCS...AND SOME SKY
TRENDS WERE REDONE.

TEMPS ARE VARIABLE WHERE THE BREEZE REMAINS UP...AND WHERE THE
WINDS HAVE DECOUPLED. EXPECT MID AND U60S IN PARTS OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...AND WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY /EXCEPT THE SRN DACKS
WHERE U50S WILL OCCUR/...AND U50S /BERKSHIRES AND SRN VT/ TO L60S
TO THE EAST.

A FEW SHOWERS OR AN ISOLD THUNDERSTORM MAY GRAZE THE WRN DACKS
BTWN 4-6 AM...AND A SLIGHT CHC WAS KEPT IN THERE. OVERALL...A
PLEASANT MORNING IS EXPECTED WITH STILL RATHER COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

SPC CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT THE REGION WITHIN THE SLIGHT RISK /15%/
WITH THE 18Z UPDATE AND NCEP MODEL SUITE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST AN
ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
EVENING. IMPRESSIVE THERMAL WARM ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT AS H850 TEMPS RISE CLOSE TO 20C MONDAY MORNING WITH FILTERED
SUNSHINE DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM DIMINISHING CONVECTION
UPSTREAM. STRONG SURFACE HEATING WELL INTO THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS
CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING
INSTABILITY. SBCAPES CLIMB TO BETWEEN 1-2K J/KG...30-40KTS 0-6KM
SHEAR AND ASSOCIATED HODOGRAPHS REVEALING CYCLONIC CURVATURE
WITH THE 0-1KM...SHOWALTERS DROPPING BELOW 0C /MAINLY ACROSS
E-NY/...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6.5-7.5 C/KM AND PWATS CLIMBING
TO AN AVERAGE VALUE OF 1.50 INCHES...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
PER COORDINATION...WE WILL PLACE SEVERE WORDING INTO THE
GRIDS/FORECAST FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. INITIAL
CONVECTIVE MODE WILL SCT-BKN CELLULAR STRUCTURES /PERHAPS
SUPERCELLULAR/ BEFORE EVOLVING INTO A SCT-BKN LINE OF CONVECTION
AS LENGTHENING HODOGRAPHS WILL FAVOR SOME LONG-LIVED CELLS AND/OR BOWS
CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL /FROM SPC SWODY2/.

SINCE THIS WILL LIKELY BE A LATE EVENT...QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH
WILL SURVIVE ONCE IT REACHES PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND
ESPECIALLY INTO LITCHFIELD COUNTY. SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION
EXPERIMENTAL REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS SUGGEST A WEAKENING TREND FOR
THESE AREAS...HOWEVER...WE WILL CONTINUE TO FINE TUNE THE
SPECIFICS WITH OVERNIGHT UPDATES.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA...A COOLER AND RATHER UNSETTLED CYCLONIC
FLOW REGIME EVOLVES WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE
INTO TUESDAY. IN FACT...IF ENOUGH SURFACE HEATING WERE TO
COMMENCE...ADDITIONAL HAIL THREAT MAY DEVELOP AS WET BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS FALL TO AROUND OR BELOW 10K AGL. H850 TEMPS FALL BACK TO
BETWEEN 10-15C WITH H500 TEMPS AVERAGING AROUND -15C.

CONDITIONS SHOULD QUIET DOWN TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OFF LAKE ONTARIO AS THOSE H850 TEMPS CONTINUE TO FALL BACK INTO
THE POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS...HOWEVER...THIS TOO WILL INCREASE THE
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES FOR SOME LAKE RESPONSE FOR SOME SHOWERS TO
IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE DACKS.

TEMPERATURES WILL INITIALLY BE QUITE WARM-HOT ON MONDAY IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH MAINLY 80S AND PERHAPS TOUCHING 90F
IN A FEW SPOTS BEFORE THE CLOUDS/STORMS ARRIVE. THEN TEMPERATURES
SLIPPING BACK TO NEAR TO A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY AUGUST THE
REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE TROUGH WILL OCCUPY THE NORTHEAST CONUS DURING THIS PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE
GREAT LAKES...BRINGING A TOUCH OF THE SEASON TO COME. IT WILL
BE A BIT COOLER AND LESS HUMID WITH HIGHS 75-80 IN THE VALLEYS...
LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER TERRAIN.

DUE TO CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD AIR ALOFT...THERE COULD BE A FEW
MAINLY AFTERNOON INSTABILITY SHOWERS...WELL NORTH OF I-90. OTHERWISE
IT WILL BE A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE AND PERHAPS A SPRINKLE EVEN
FURTHER SOUTH.

IT WILL BE PLEASANTLY COOL WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE 50S...WITH SOME MID OR UPPER 40S IN THE COOLEST MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

ON THURSDAY....ALL THE MODELS NOW INDICATE A SIGNIFICANT WAVE
WILL DEVELOP INTO A LOW PRESSURE AREA WELL TO THE SOUTH OF OUR
REGION. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION
MUCH LIKE A WINTER STORM. OF COURSE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALL
RAIN...AND RIGHT NOW THE RAIN SHIELD COULD REACH NORTH TO ABOUT
I-90 OR EVEN A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH BY EARLY FRIDAY. THURSDAY
LOOKS AS IF CLOUD INCREASE AND A FEW SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP SOUTH
OF ALBANY BY LATE IN THE DAY. WE INCREASE POPS TO 30 FOR NOW
EVERYWHERE BY FRIDAY AND CALL IT SHOWERS (ALTHOUGH THERE IS AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE IT COULD BE AN ALL DAY RAIN).

WITH CLOUDS AND CHANCE OF SHOWERS...HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 70S
BOTH DAYS...AND IF THE SITUATION LOOKS EVEN WETTER...WE COULD BE
TALKING ABOUT HIGHS IN THE 60S FOR FRIDAY. FOR NOW...KEPT IT
CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGY AND GIVEN IT IS NOT A SLAM DUNK THAT RAIN
WILL OVERSPREAD OUR REGION.

LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT ON SATURDAY...BUT A LINGERING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH COULD KEEP OUR WEATHER A LITTLE UNSETTLED (DUE TO RESIDUAL
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC FLOW). FOR NOW...WE JUST KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCES IN FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
AVERAGE A BIT BELOW NORMAL...UPPER 60S NORTHWEST TO UPPER 70S
SOUTHEAST WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE
TAF SITES AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH
CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR WITH THE CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT HAVE NOT BEEN INCLUDE
IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. HAVE ADDRESSED THE THREAT OF THE STORMS WITH
A PROB30 GROUP INCLUDING THUNDERSTORMS FOR A 3 TO 4 HOUR WINDOW.

AT KALB...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AND ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY.
AT THE OTHER TAF SITES...LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WITH A SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND DEVELOPING WHICH SHOULD
BECOME GUSTY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY. A LIGHTER SOUTHERLY
FLOW IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE STORMS AS WE HEAD INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NUMEROUS SHRA...TSRA.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE NIGHT-THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND MOST OF EARLY
MONDAY MORNING BEFORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ON MONDAY
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. TONIGHTS RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL REBOUND FROM THE 25 TO 45 PERCENT THIS EVENING TO 75
AND 95 PERCENT OVERNIGHT.

IT WILL BE VERY WARM AND MORE HUMID MONDAY WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES BETWEEN 45 AND 65 PERCENT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. THE STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS RISE UP TO
AROUND 1.5 INCHES AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD
LEAD TO SOME MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS.
ALSO SOME WITHIN BANK RIVER RISES WOULD BE EXPECTED.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES AND PASSES OVER THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KENX DOPPLER RADAR MAINTENANCE IS COMPLETE AND HAVE RETURNED TO
FULL OPERATIONAL MODE. THANK YOU FOR YOUR PATIENCE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM/WASULA
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM/WASULA
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM
EQUIPMENT...




000
FXUS61 KALY 030558
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
158 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME
OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE ALONG WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS. COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS ARRIVE FOR THE
MID WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 130 AM EDT...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVES TOWARDS JAMES
BAY THIS MORNING. A DECAYING MCS CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO WITH A SFC TROUGH. SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER CONTINUE...BUT
OVERALL THE DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS HAS CAUSED THE
WEAKENING TREND.

A SOUTHERLY BREEZE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN PARTS OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY DUE TO THE SFC HIGH MOVING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. HIGH CLOUDS HAVE INCREASED
NW OF THE CAPITAL REGION WITH THE DECAYING MCS...AND SOME SKY
TRENDS WERE REDONE.

TEMPS ARE VARIABLE WHERE THE BREEZE REMAINS UP...AND WHERE THE
WINDS HAVE DECOUPLED. EXPECT MID AND U60S IN PARTS OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...AND WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY /EXCEPT THE SRN DACKS
WHERE U50S WILL OCCUR/...AND U50S /BERKSHIRES AND SRN VT/ TO L60S
TO THE EAST.

A FEW SHOWERS OR AN ISOLD THUNDERSTORM MAY GRAZE THE WRN DACKS
BTWN 4-6 AM...AND A SLIGHT CHC WAS KEPT IN THERE. OVERALL...A
PLEASANT MORNING IS EXPECTED WITH STILL RATHER COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

SPC CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT THE REGION WITHIN THE SLIGHT RISK /15%/
WITH THE 18Z UPDATE AND NCEP MODEL SUITE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST AN
ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
EVENING. IMPRESSIVE THERMAL WARM ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT AS H850 TEMPS RISE CLOSE TO 20C MONDAY MORNING WITH FILTERED
SUNSHINE DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM DIMINISHING CONVECTION
UPSTREAM. STRONG SURFACE HEATING WELL INTO THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS
CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING
INSTABILITY. SBCAPES CLIMB TO BETWEEN 1-2K J/KG...30-40KTS 0-6KM
SHEAR AND ASSOCIATED HODOGRAPHS REVEALING CYCLONIC CURVATURE
WITH THE 0-1KM...SHOWALTERS DROPPING BELOW 0C /MAINLY ACROSS
E-NY/...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6.5-7.5 C/KM AND PWATS CLIMBING
TO AN AVERAGE VALUE OF 1.50 INCHES...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
PER COORDINATION...WE WILL PLACE SEVERE WORDING INTO THE
GRIDS/FORECAST FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. INITIAL
CONVECTIVE MODE WILL SCT-BKN CELLULAR STRUCTURES /PERHAPS
SUPERCELLULAR/ BEFORE EVOLVING INTO A SCT-BKN LINE OF CONVECTION
AS LENGTHENING HODOGRAPHS WILL FAVOR SOME LONG-LIVED CELLS AND/OR BOWS
CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL /FROM SPC SWODY2/.

SINCE THIS WILL LIKELY BE A LATE EVENT...QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH
WILL SURVIVE ONCE IT REACHES PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND
ESPECIALLY INTO LITCHFIELD COUNTY. SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION
EXPERIMENTAL REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS SUGGEST A WEAKENING TREND FOR
THESE AREAS...HOWEVER...WE WILL CONTINUE TO FINE TUNE THE
SPECIFICS WITH OVERNIGHT UPDATES.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA...A COOLER AND RATHER UNSETTLED CYCLONIC
FLOW REGIME EVOLVES WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE
INTO TUESDAY. IN FACT...IF ENOUGH SURFACE HEATING WERE TO
COMMENCE...ADDITIONAL HAIL THREAT MAY DEVELOP AS WET BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS FALL TO AROUND OR BELOW 10K AGL. H850 TEMPS FALL BACK TO
BETWEEN 10-15C WITH H500 TEMPS AVERAGING AROUND -15C.

CONDITIONS SHOULD QUIET DOWN TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OFF LAKE ONTARIO AS THOSE H850 TEMPS CONTINUE TO FALL BACK INTO
THE POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS...HOWEVER...THIS TOO WILL INCREASE THE
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES FOR SOME LAKE RESPONSE FOR SOME SHOWERS TO
IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE DACKS.

TEMPERATURES WILL INITIALLY BE QUITE WARM-HOT ON MONDAY IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH MAINLY 80S AND PERHAPS TOUCHING 90F
IN A FEW SPOTS BEFORE THE CLOUDS/STORMS ARRIVE. THEN TEMPERATURES
SLIPPING BACK TO NEAR TO A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY AUGUST THE
REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE TROUGH WILL OCCUPY THE NORTHEAST CONUS DURING THIS PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE
GREAT LAKES...BRINGING A TOUCH OF THE SEASON TO COME. IT WILL
BE A BIT COOLER AND LESS HUMID WITH HIGHS 75-80 IN THE VALLEYS...
LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER TERRAIN.

DUE TO CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD AIR ALOFT...THERE COULD BE A FEW
MAINLY AFTERNOON INSTABILITY SHOWERS...WELL NORTH OF I-90. OTHERWISE
IT WILL BE A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE AND PERHAPS A SPRINKLE EVEN
FURTHER SOUTH.

IT WILL BE PLEASANTLY COOL WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE 50S...WITH SOME MID OR UPPER 40S IN THE COOLEST MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

ON THURSDAY....ALL THE MODELS NOW INDICATE A SIGNIFICANT WAVE
WILL DEVELOP INTO A LOW PRESSURE AREA WELL TO THE SOUTH OF OUR
REGION. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION
MUCH LIKE A WINTER STORM. OF COURSE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALL
RAIN...AND RIGHT NOW THE RAIN SHIELD COULD REACH NORTH TO ABOUT
I-90 OR EVEN A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH BY EARLY FRIDAY. THURSDAY
LOOKS AS IF CLOUD INCREASE AND A FEW SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP SOUTH
OF ALBANY BY LATE IN THE DAY. WE INCREASE POPS TO 30 FOR NOW
EVERYWHERE BY FRIDAY AND CALL IT SHOWERS (ALTHOUGH THERE IS AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE IT COULD BE AN ALL DAY RAIN).

WITH CLOUDS AND CHANCE OF SHOWERS...HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 70S
BOTH DAYS...AND IF THE SITUATION LOOKS EVEN WETTER...WE COULD BE
TALKING ABOUT HIGHS IN THE 60S FOR FRIDAY. FOR NOW...KEPT IT
CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGY AND GIVEN IT IS NOT A SLAM DUNK THAT RAIN
WILL OVERSPREAD OUR REGION.

LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT ON SATURDAY...BUT A LINGERING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH COULD KEEP OUR WEATHER A LITTLE UNSETTLED (DUE TO RESIDUAL
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC FLOW). FOR NOW...WE JUST KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCES IN FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
AVERAGE A BIT BELOW NORMAL...UPPER 60S NORTHWEST TO UPPER 70S
SOUTHEAST WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE
TAF SITES AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH
CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR WITH THE CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT HAVE NOT BEEN INCLUDE
IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. HAVE ADDRESSED THE THREAT OF THE STORMS WITH
A PROB30 GROUP INCLUDING THUNDERSTORMS FOR A 3 TO 4 HOUR WINDOW.

AT KALB...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AND ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY.
AT THE OTHER TAF SITES...LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WITH A SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND DEVELOPING WHICH SHOULD
BECOME GUSTY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY. A LIGHTER SOUTHERLY
FLOW IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE STORMS AS WE HEAD INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NUMEROUS SHRA...TSRA.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE NIGHT-THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND MOST OF EARLY
MONDAY MORNING BEFORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ON MONDAY
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. TONIGHTS RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL REBOUND FROM THE 25 TO 45 PERCENT THIS EVENING TO 75
AND 95 PERCENT OVERNIGHT.

IT WILL BE VERY WARM AND MORE HUMID MONDAY WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES BETWEEN 45 AND 65 PERCENT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. THE STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS RISE UP TO
AROUND 1.5 INCHES AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD
LEAD TO SOME MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS.
ALSO SOME WITHIN BANK RIVER RISES WOULD BE EXPECTED.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES AND PASSES OVER THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KENX DOPPLER RADAR MAINTENANCE IS COMPLETE AND HAVE RETURNED TO
FULL OPERATIONAL MODE. THANK YOU FOR YOUR PATIENCE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM/WASULA
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM/WASULA
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM
EQUIPMENT...



000
FXUS61 KOKX 030536
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
136 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA ON TUESDAY...AND THEN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA
ON WEDNESDAY. SEVERAL AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR JAMES BAY IS PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. MUCH, IF NOT ALL, OF THE CONVECTION FROM LAKE ONTARIO
WEST TO CHICAGO SHOULD DISSIPATE BY SUNRISE.

DEW POINT TEMPS NEARING 70 OVER LONG ISLAND AND COST CT SUPPORT
THE FORMATION OF PATCHY FOG. OTHERWISE SKC.

TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE 60S AND 70S PER MOS. BLEND USED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TROUGH/CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS
EAST THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. SFC COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST...MAKING SLOW PROGRESS TOWARD THE AREA LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT.

BASED ON LATEST NWP...WILL KEEP ALL AREAS DRY THOUGH THE DAY.

UNDER A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...AND WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
UPPER TROUGH AND SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY...TEMPS WILL WARM WELL INTO
THE 80S...AND WILL APPROACH OR EXCEED 90 AWAY FROM THE SOUTH
COASTS. BLENDED MET/MAV.

BETTER PCPN CHANCE IS TONIGHT DUE TO APPROACHING MID LEVEL LIFT
AS IT PIVOTS AROUND THE TROUGH...AND AS THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. COVERAGE OF CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN
SCATTERED AT BEST.

AS FOR STORM STRENGTH...30 KT OF SHEAR AND SBCAPES OF 1000-1500
J/KG SUPPORT ONLY A MARGINAL RISK THIS EVENING NORTHWEST. BETTER
RISK FOR SEVERE IS IN UPSTATE NY.

COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.
MEANWHILE...THE DEEP CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL CANADA MOVES
INTO EASTERN CANADA. SHOWERS TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY
MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION. CONDS
DRY OUT FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...AND THEN AN
UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
AND THROUGH THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL TOUCH OFF SOME SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE REGION IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. SINCE IT
WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR TO MAKE ITS
WAY INTO THE LOCAL AREA...CAN EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO
AROUND 90. SFC DEWPOINTS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW 60S ACROSS WESTERN
ZONES DURING THE DAY...BUT DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S
FOR EASTERN ZONES. AS A RESULT...THE HEAT INDEX WILL GENERALLY BE
AROUND 90 THROUGHOUT.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE
OCEAN BEACHES TODAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES. A RIP CURRENT
STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRES PASSES THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. NO PCPN
EXPECTED...AND A COOLER AND DRYER AIRMASS SPREADS INTO THE REGION
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S. HIGH
PRES MOVES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHEAST...SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP AT THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH AND WILL PASS THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST DURING
THIS TIME. MODELS HAVE HAD A HARD TIME PICKING UP ON THE TRACK OF
EACH LOW AND HAVE RESULTED IN DIFFERENT TRACKS WITH EACH RUN...BUT
IT IS STILL TOO FAR OUT IN TIME TO SAY WHAT WILL HAPPEN. WILL
CARRY CHANCE POPS DURING THIS TIME...AS AT LEAST 2 DIFFERENT AREAS
OF LOW PRES WILL TRACK THROUGH THE REGION WITH CONDS DRYING OUT BY
SUNDAY.

TEMPS WILL RUN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS TIME WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING LATE MONDAY.

MAINLY VFR TONIGHT...WITH EXCEPTION OF KGON WHICH SHOULD
FLUCTUATE BETWEEN VFR AND IFR OVERNIGHT ON THIS FIRST NIGHT OF
ONSHORE FLOW.

LIGHT S/SW FLOW TONIGHT...PICKS UP MONDAY MORNING AND BECOMES
GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON. STRONG SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED AT
COASTAL TERMINALS. THERE IS A LOW PROB FOR SE SEABREEZE TO WORK
INTO KEWR/KTEB.

MAINLY VFR ON MONDAY...WITH CHANCE OF TSTM LATE AT KSWF. WILL
CONTINUE TO CARRY A PROB30 GROUP.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUE THROUGH FRI...
.MON NIGHT-TUE...CHANCE OF TSTMS. COLD FROPA WITH S WINDS
SHIFTING TO W. PATCHY FOG ACROSS OUTLYING TERMINALS MON NIGHT.
.WED...VFR. W FLOW.
.THU-FRI...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES
EAST. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS LATE TODAY...MOVING
CLOSE TO THE WATERS TONIGHT. WINDS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT
INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE LIGHTENING WITH
THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT.

OCEAN SEAS BUILD DUE TO THE INCREASE IN THESE WINDS. SCA
STARTING AT 4 PM LOCAL AND THROUGH TONIGHT. OCCASIONAL 25 KT
GUSTS POSSIBLE FOR NY HARBOR...WESTERN SOUTH SHORE BAYS AND
WESTERN LI SOUND LATE MONDAY AFT INTO MONDAY EVENING.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BELOW SCA LEVELS ON
TUESDAY...AND THEN WEAK HIGH PRES PASSES THROUGH THE WATERS ON
WEDNESDAY. FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...SEVERAL AREAS OF LOW PRES MAY
PASS ACROSS THE WATERS...RESULTING IN OCNL SCA CONDS FOR AT LEAST
THE OCEAN WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN TSTMS LATE MONDAY/MONDAY
NIGHT AND AGAIN TUE AFTN/EVE E OF NYC...WHICH COULD LEAD TO MINOR
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING
     FOR NYZ075-080-081-178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPS/PW
NEAR TERM...TONGUE
SHORT TERM...MPS/TONGUE/PW
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...BC/NV
MARINE...MPS/PW
HYDROLOGY...MPS/PW



000
FXUS61 KOKX 030536
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
136 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA ON TUESDAY...AND THEN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA
ON WEDNESDAY. SEVERAL AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR JAMES BAY IS PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. MUCH, IF NOT ALL, OF THE CONVECTION FROM LAKE ONTARIO
WEST TO CHICAGO SHOULD DISSIPATE BY SUNRISE.

DEW POINT TEMPS NEARING 70 OVER LONG ISLAND AND COST CT SUPPORT
THE FORMATION OF PATCHY FOG. OTHERWISE SKC.

TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE 60S AND 70S PER MOS. BLEND USED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TROUGH/CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS
EAST THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. SFC COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST...MAKING SLOW PROGRESS TOWARD THE AREA LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT.

BASED ON LATEST NWP...WILL KEEP ALL AREAS DRY THOUGH THE DAY.

UNDER A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...AND WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
UPPER TROUGH AND SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY...TEMPS WILL WARM WELL INTO
THE 80S...AND WILL APPROACH OR EXCEED 90 AWAY FROM THE SOUTH
COASTS. BLENDED MET/MAV.

BETTER PCPN CHANCE IS TONIGHT DUE TO APPROACHING MID LEVEL LIFT
AS IT PIVOTS AROUND THE TROUGH...AND AS THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. COVERAGE OF CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN
SCATTERED AT BEST.

AS FOR STORM STRENGTH...30 KT OF SHEAR AND SBCAPES OF 1000-1500
J/KG SUPPORT ONLY A MARGINAL RISK THIS EVENING NORTHWEST. BETTER
RISK FOR SEVERE IS IN UPSTATE NY.

COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.
MEANWHILE...THE DEEP CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL CANADA MOVES
INTO EASTERN CANADA. SHOWERS TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY
MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION. CONDS
DRY OUT FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...AND THEN AN
UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
AND THROUGH THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL TOUCH OFF SOME SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE REGION IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. SINCE IT
WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR TO MAKE ITS
WAY INTO THE LOCAL AREA...CAN EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO
AROUND 90. SFC DEWPOINTS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW 60S ACROSS WESTERN
ZONES DURING THE DAY...BUT DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S
FOR EASTERN ZONES. AS A RESULT...THE HEAT INDEX WILL GENERALLY BE
AROUND 90 THROUGHOUT.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE
OCEAN BEACHES TODAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES. A RIP CURRENT
STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRES PASSES THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. NO PCPN
EXPECTED...AND A COOLER AND DRYER AIRMASS SPREADS INTO THE REGION
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S. HIGH
PRES MOVES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHEAST...SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP AT THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH AND WILL PASS THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST DURING
THIS TIME. MODELS HAVE HAD A HARD TIME PICKING UP ON THE TRACK OF
EACH LOW AND HAVE RESULTED IN DIFFERENT TRACKS WITH EACH RUN...BUT
IT IS STILL TOO FAR OUT IN TIME TO SAY WHAT WILL HAPPEN. WILL
CARRY CHANCE POPS DURING THIS TIME...AS AT LEAST 2 DIFFERENT AREAS
OF LOW PRES WILL TRACK THROUGH THE REGION WITH CONDS DRYING OUT BY
SUNDAY.

TEMPS WILL RUN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS TIME WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING LATE MONDAY.

MAINLY VFR TONIGHT...WITH EXCEPTION OF KGON WHICH SHOULD
FLUCTUATE BETWEEN VFR AND IFR OVERNIGHT ON THIS FIRST NIGHT OF
ONSHORE FLOW.

LIGHT S/SW FLOW TONIGHT...PICKS UP MONDAY MORNING AND BECOMES
GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON. STRONG SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED AT
COASTAL TERMINALS. THERE IS A LOW PROB FOR SE SEABREEZE TO WORK
INTO KEWR/KTEB.

MAINLY VFR ON MONDAY...WITH CHANCE OF TSTM LATE AT KSWF. WILL
CONTINUE TO CARRY A PROB30 GROUP.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUE THROUGH FRI...
.MON NIGHT-TUE...CHANCE OF TSTMS. COLD FROPA WITH S WINDS
SHIFTING TO W. PATCHY FOG ACROSS OUTLYING TERMINALS MON NIGHT.
.WED...VFR. W FLOW.
.THU-FRI...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES
EAST. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS LATE TODAY...MOVING
CLOSE TO THE WATERS TONIGHT. WINDS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT
INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE LIGHTENING WITH
THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT.

OCEAN SEAS BUILD DUE TO THE INCREASE IN THESE WINDS. SCA
STARTING AT 4 PM LOCAL AND THROUGH TONIGHT. OCCASIONAL 25 KT
GUSTS POSSIBLE FOR NY HARBOR...WESTERN SOUTH SHORE BAYS AND
WESTERN LI SOUND LATE MONDAY AFT INTO MONDAY EVENING.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BELOW SCA LEVELS ON
TUESDAY...AND THEN WEAK HIGH PRES PASSES THROUGH THE WATERS ON
WEDNESDAY. FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...SEVERAL AREAS OF LOW PRES MAY
PASS ACROSS THE WATERS...RESULTING IN OCNL SCA CONDS FOR AT LEAST
THE OCEAN WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN TSTMS LATE MONDAY/MONDAY
NIGHT AND AGAIN TUE AFTN/EVE E OF NYC...WHICH COULD LEAD TO MINOR
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING
     FOR NYZ075-080-081-178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPS/PW
NEAR TERM...TONGUE
SHORT TERM...MPS/TONGUE/PW
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...BC/NV
MARINE...MPS/PW
HYDROLOGY...MPS/PW



000
FXUS61 KOKX 030536
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
136 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA ON TUESDAY...AND THEN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA
ON WEDNESDAY. SEVERAL AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR JAMES BAY IS PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. MUCH, IF NOT ALL, OF THE CONVECTION FROM LAKE ONTARIO
WEST TO CHICAGO SHOULD DISSIPATE BY SUNRISE.

DEW POINT TEMPS NEARING 70 OVER LONG ISLAND AND COST CT SUPPORT
THE FORMATION OF PATCHY FOG. OTHERWISE SKC.

TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE 60S AND 70S PER MOS. BLEND USED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TROUGH/CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS
EAST THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. SFC COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST...MAKING SLOW PROGRESS TOWARD THE AREA LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT.

BASED ON LATEST NWP...WILL KEEP ALL AREAS DRY THOUGH THE DAY.

UNDER A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...AND WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
UPPER TROUGH AND SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY...TEMPS WILL WARM WELL INTO
THE 80S...AND WILL APPROACH OR EXCEED 90 AWAY FROM THE SOUTH
COASTS. BLENDED MET/MAV.

BETTER PCPN CHANCE IS TONIGHT DUE TO APPROACHING MID LEVEL LIFT
AS IT PIVOTS AROUND THE TROUGH...AND AS THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. COVERAGE OF CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN
SCATTERED AT BEST.

AS FOR STORM STRENGTH...30 KT OF SHEAR AND SBCAPES OF 1000-1500
J/KG SUPPORT ONLY A MARGINAL RISK THIS EVENING NORTHWEST. BETTER
RISK FOR SEVERE IS IN UPSTATE NY.

COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.
MEANWHILE...THE DEEP CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL CANADA MOVES
INTO EASTERN CANADA. SHOWERS TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY
MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION. CONDS
DRY OUT FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...AND THEN AN
UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
AND THROUGH THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL TOUCH OFF SOME SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE REGION IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. SINCE IT
WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR TO MAKE ITS
WAY INTO THE LOCAL AREA...CAN EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO
AROUND 90. SFC DEWPOINTS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW 60S ACROSS WESTERN
ZONES DURING THE DAY...BUT DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S
FOR EASTERN ZONES. AS A RESULT...THE HEAT INDEX WILL GENERALLY BE
AROUND 90 THROUGHOUT.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE
OCEAN BEACHES TODAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES. A RIP CURRENT
STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRES PASSES THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. NO PCPN
EXPECTED...AND A COOLER AND DRYER AIRMASS SPREADS INTO THE REGION
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S. HIGH
PRES MOVES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHEAST...SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP AT THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH AND WILL PASS THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST DURING
THIS TIME. MODELS HAVE HAD A HARD TIME PICKING UP ON THE TRACK OF
EACH LOW AND HAVE RESULTED IN DIFFERENT TRACKS WITH EACH RUN...BUT
IT IS STILL TOO FAR OUT IN TIME TO SAY WHAT WILL HAPPEN. WILL
CARRY CHANCE POPS DURING THIS TIME...AS AT LEAST 2 DIFFERENT AREAS
OF LOW PRES WILL TRACK THROUGH THE REGION WITH CONDS DRYING OUT BY
SUNDAY.

TEMPS WILL RUN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS TIME WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING LATE MONDAY.

MAINLY VFR TONIGHT...WITH EXCEPTION OF KGON WHICH SHOULD
FLUCTUATE BETWEEN VFR AND IFR OVERNIGHT ON THIS FIRST NIGHT OF
ONSHORE FLOW.

LIGHT S/SW FLOW TONIGHT...PICKS UP MONDAY MORNING AND BECOMES
GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON. STRONG SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED AT
COASTAL TERMINALS. THERE IS A LOW PROB FOR SE SEABREEZE TO WORK
INTO KEWR/KTEB.

MAINLY VFR ON MONDAY...WITH CHANCE OF TSTM LATE AT KSWF. WILL
CONTINUE TO CARRY A PROB30 GROUP.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUE THROUGH FRI...
.MON NIGHT-TUE...CHANCE OF TSTMS. COLD FROPA WITH S WINDS
SHIFTING TO W. PATCHY FOG ACROSS OUTLYING TERMINALS MON NIGHT.
.WED...VFR. W FLOW.
.THU-FRI...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES
EAST. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS LATE TODAY...MOVING
CLOSE TO THE WATERS TONIGHT. WINDS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT
INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE LIGHTENING WITH
THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT.

OCEAN SEAS BUILD DUE TO THE INCREASE IN THESE WINDS. SCA
STARTING AT 4 PM LOCAL AND THROUGH TONIGHT. OCCASIONAL 25 KT
GUSTS POSSIBLE FOR NY HARBOR...WESTERN SOUTH SHORE BAYS AND
WESTERN LI SOUND LATE MONDAY AFT INTO MONDAY EVENING.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BELOW SCA LEVELS ON
TUESDAY...AND THEN WEAK HIGH PRES PASSES THROUGH THE WATERS ON
WEDNESDAY. FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...SEVERAL AREAS OF LOW PRES MAY
PASS ACROSS THE WATERS...RESULTING IN OCNL SCA CONDS FOR AT LEAST
THE OCEAN WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN TSTMS LATE MONDAY/MONDAY
NIGHT AND AGAIN TUE AFTN/EVE E OF NYC...WHICH COULD LEAD TO MINOR
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING
     FOR NYZ075-080-081-178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPS/PW
NEAR TERM...TONGUE
SHORT TERM...MPS/TONGUE/PW
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...BC/NV
MARINE...MPS/PW
HYDROLOGY...MPS/PW



000
FXUS61 KOKX 030536
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
136 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA ON TUESDAY...AND THEN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA
ON WEDNESDAY. SEVERAL AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR JAMES BAY IS PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. MUCH, IF NOT ALL, OF THE CONVECTION FROM LAKE ONTARIO
WEST TO CHICAGO SHOULD DISSIPATE BY SUNRISE.

DEW POINT TEMPS NEARING 70 OVER LONG ISLAND AND COST CT SUPPORT
THE FORMATION OF PATCHY FOG. OTHERWISE SKC.

TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE 60S AND 70S PER MOS. BLEND USED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TROUGH/CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS
EAST THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. SFC COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST...MAKING SLOW PROGRESS TOWARD THE AREA LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT.

BASED ON LATEST NWP...WILL KEEP ALL AREAS DRY THOUGH THE DAY.

UNDER A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...AND WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
UPPER TROUGH AND SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY...TEMPS WILL WARM WELL INTO
THE 80S...AND WILL APPROACH OR EXCEED 90 AWAY FROM THE SOUTH
COASTS. BLENDED MET/MAV.

BETTER PCPN CHANCE IS TONIGHT DUE TO APPROACHING MID LEVEL LIFT
AS IT PIVOTS AROUND THE TROUGH...AND AS THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. COVERAGE OF CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN
SCATTERED AT BEST.

AS FOR STORM STRENGTH...30 KT OF SHEAR AND SBCAPES OF 1000-1500
J/KG SUPPORT ONLY A MARGINAL RISK THIS EVENING NORTHWEST. BETTER
RISK FOR SEVERE IS IN UPSTATE NY.

COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.
MEANWHILE...THE DEEP CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL CANADA MOVES
INTO EASTERN CANADA. SHOWERS TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY
MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION. CONDS
DRY OUT FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...AND THEN AN
UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
AND THROUGH THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL TOUCH OFF SOME SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE REGION IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. SINCE IT
WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR TO MAKE ITS
WAY INTO THE LOCAL AREA...CAN EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO
AROUND 90. SFC DEWPOINTS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW 60S ACROSS WESTERN
ZONES DURING THE DAY...BUT DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S
FOR EASTERN ZONES. AS A RESULT...THE HEAT INDEX WILL GENERALLY BE
AROUND 90 THROUGHOUT.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE
OCEAN BEACHES TODAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES. A RIP CURRENT
STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRES PASSES THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. NO PCPN
EXPECTED...AND A COOLER AND DRYER AIRMASS SPREADS INTO THE REGION
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S. HIGH
PRES MOVES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHEAST...SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP AT THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH AND WILL PASS THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST DURING
THIS TIME. MODELS HAVE HAD A HARD TIME PICKING UP ON THE TRACK OF
EACH LOW AND HAVE RESULTED IN DIFFERENT TRACKS WITH EACH RUN...BUT
IT IS STILL TOO FAR OUT IN TIME TO SAY WHAT WILL HAPPEN. WILL
CARRY CHANCE POPS DURING THIS TIME...AS AT LEAST 2 DIFFERENT AREAS
OF LOW PRES WILL TRACK THROUGH THE REGION WITH CONDS DRYING OUT BY
SUNDAY.

TEMPS WILL RUN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS TIME WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING LATE MONDAY.

MAINLY VFR TONIGHT...WITH EXCEPTION OF KGON WHICH SHOULD
FLUCTUATE BETWEEN VFR AND IFR OVERNIGHT ON THIS FIRST NIGHT OF
ONSHORE FLOW.

LIGHT S/SW FLOW TONIGHT...PICKS UP MONDAY MORNING AND BECOMES
GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON. STRONG SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED AT
COASTAL TERMINALS. THERE IS A LOW PROB FOR SE SEABREEZE TO WORK
INTO KEWR/KTEB.

MAINLY VFR ON MONDAY...WITH CHANCE OF TSTM LATE AT KSWF. WILL
CONTINUE TO CARRY A PROB30 GROUP.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUE THROUGH FRI...
.MON NIGHT-TUE...CHANCE OF TSTMS. COLD FROPA WITH S WINDS
SHIFTING TO W. PATCHY FOG ACROSS OUTLYING TERMINALS MON NIGHT.
.WED...VFR. W FLOW.
.THU-FRI...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES
EAST. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS LATE TODAY...MOVING
CLOSE TO THE WATERS TONIGHT. WINDS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT
INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE LIGHTENING WITH
THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT.

OCEAN SEAS BUILD DUE TO THE INCREASE IN THESE WINDS. SCA
STARTING AT 4 PM LOCAL AND THROUGH TONIGHT. OCCASIONAL 25 KT
GUSTS POSSIBLE FOR NY HARBOR...WESTERN SOUTH SHORE BAYS AND
WESTERN LI SOUND LATE MONDAY AFT INTO MONDAY EVENING.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BELOW SCA LEVELS ON
TUESDAY...AND THEN WEAK HIGH PRES PASSES THROUGH THE WATERS ON
WEDNESDAY. FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...SEVERAL AREAS OF LOW PRES MAY
PASS ACROSS THE WATERS...RESULTING IN OCNL SCA CONDS FOR AT LEAST
THE OCEAN WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN TSTMS LATE MONDAY/MONDAY
NIGHT AND AGAIN TUE AFTN/EVE E OF NYC...WHICH COULD LEAD TO MINOR
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING
     FOR NYZ075-080-081-178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPS/PW
NEAR TERM...TONGUE
SHORT TERM...MPS/TONGUE/PW
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...BC/NV
MARINE...MPS/PW
HYDROLOGY...MPS/PW



000
FXUS61 KALY 030530
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
130 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME
OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE ALONG WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS. COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS ARRIVE FOR THE
MID WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 130 AM EDT...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVES TOWARDS JAMES
BAY THIS MORNING. A DECAYING MCS CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO WITH A SFC TROUGH. SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER CONTINUE...BUT
OVERALL THE DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS HAS CAUSED THE
WEAKENING TREND.

A SOUTHERLY BREEZE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN PARTS OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY DUE TO THE SFC HIGH MOVING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. HIGH CLOUDS HAVE INCREASED
NW OF THE CAPITAL REGION WITH THE DECAYING MCS...AND SOME SKY
TRENDS WERE REDONE.

TEMPS ARE VARIABLE WHERE THE BREEZE REMAINS UP...AND WHERE THE
WINDS HAVE DECOUPLED. EXPECT MID AND U60S IN PARTS OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...AND WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY /EXCEPT THE SRN DACKS
WHERE U50S WILL OCCUR/...AND U50S /BERKSHIRES AND SRN VT/ TO L60S
TO THE EAST.

A FEW SHOWERS OR AN ISOLD THUNDERSTORM MAY GRAZE THE WRN DACKS
BTWN 4-6 AM...AND A SLIGHT CHC WAS KEPT IN THERE. OVERALL...A
PLEASANT MORNING IS EXPECTED WITH STILL RATHER COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

SPC CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT THE REGION WITHIN THE SLIGHT RISK /15%/
WITH THE 18Z UPDATE AND NCEP MODEL SUITE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST AN
ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
EVENING. IMPRESSIVE THERMAL WARM ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT AS H850 TEMPS RISE CLOSE TO 20C MONDAY MORNING WITH FILTERED
SUNSHINE DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM DIMINISHING CONVECTION
UPSTREAM. STRONG SURFACE HEATING WELL INTO THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS
CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING
INSTABILITY. SBCAPES CLIMB TO BETWEEN 1-2K J/KG...30-40KTS 0-6KM
SHEAR AND ASSOCIATED HODOGRAPHS REVEALING CYCLONIC CURVATURE
WITH THE 0-1KM...SHOWALTERS DROPPING BELOW 0C /MAINLY ACROSS
E-NY/...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6.5-7.5 C/KM AND PWATS CLIMBING
TO AN AVERAGE VALUE OF 1.50 INCHES...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
PER COORDINATION...WE WILL PLACE SEVERE WORDING INTO THE
GRIDS/FORECAST FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. INITIAL
CONVECTIVE MODE WILL SCT-BKN CELLULAR STRUCTURES /PERHAPS
SUPERCELLULAR/ BEFORE EVOLVING INTO A SCT-BKN LINE OF CONVECTION
AS LENGTHENING HODOGRAPHS WILL FAVOR SOME LONG-LIVED CELLS AND/OR BOWS
CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL /FROM SPC SWODY2/.

SINCE THIS WILL LIKELY BE A LATE EVENT...QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH
WILL SURVIVE ONCE IT REACHES PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND
ESPECIALLY INTO LITCHFIELD COUNTY. SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION
EXPERIMENTAL REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS SUGGEST A WEAKENING TREND FOR
THESE AREAS...HOWEVER...WE WILL CONTINUE TO FINE TUNE THE
SPECIFICS WITH OVERNIGHT UPDATES.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA...A COOLER AND RATHER UNSETTLED CYCLONIC
FLOW REGIME EVOLVES WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE
INTO TUESDAY. IN FACT...IF ENOUGH SURFACE HEATING WERE TO
COMMENCE...ADDITIONAL HAIL THREAT MAY DEVELOP AS WET BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS FALL TO AROUND OR BELOW 10K AGL. H850 TEMPS FALL BACK TO
BETWEEN 10-15C WITH H500 TEMPS AVERAGING AROUND -15C.

CONDITIONS SHOULD QUIET DOWN TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OFF LAKE ONTARIO AS THOSE H850 TEMPS CONTINUE TO FALL BACK INTO
THE POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS...HOWEVER...THIS TOO WILL INCREASE THE
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES FOR SOME LAKE RESPONSE FOR SOME SHOWERS TO
IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE DACKS.

TEMPERATURES WILL INITIALLY BE QUITE WARM-HOT ON MONDAY IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH MAINLY 80S AND PERHAPS TOUCHING 90F
IN A FEW SPOTS BEFORE THE CLOUDS/STORMS ARRIVE. THEN TEMPERATURES
SLIPPING BACK TO NEAR TO A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY AUGUST THE
REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE TROUGH WILL OCCUPY THE NORTHEAST CONUS DURING THIS PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE
GREAT LAKES...BRINGING A TOUCH OF THE SEASON TO COME. IT WILL
BE A BIT COOLER AND LESS HUMID WITH HIGHS 75-80 IN THE VALLEYS...
LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER TERRAIN.

DUE TO CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD AIR ALOFT...THERE COULD BE A FEW
MAINLY AFTERNOON INSTABILITY SHOWERS...WELL NORTH OF I-90. OTHERWISE
IT WILL BE A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE AND PERHAPS A SPRINKLE EVEN
FURTHER SOUTH.

IT WILL BE PLEASANTLY COOL WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE 50S...WITH SOME MID OR UPPER 40S IN THE COOLEST MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

ON THURSDAY....ALL THE MODELS NOW INDICATE A SIGNIFICANT WAVE
WILL DEVELOP INTO A LOW PRESSURE AREA WELL TO THE SOUTH OF OUR
REGION. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION
MUCH LIKE A WINTER STORM. OF COURSE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALL
RAIN...AND RIGHT NOW THE RAIN SHIELD COULD REACH NORTH TO ABOUT
I-90 OR EVEN A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH BY EARLY FRIDAY. THURSDAY
LOOKS AS IF CLOUD INCREASE AND A FEW SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP SOUTH
OF ALBANY BY LATE IN THE DAY. WE INCREASE POPS TO 30 FOR NOW
EVERYWHERE BY FRIDAY AND CALL IT SHOWERS (ALTHOUGH THERE IS AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE IT COULD BE AN ALL DAY RAIN).

WITH CLOUDS AND CHANCE OF SHOWERS...HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 70S
BOTH DAYS...AND IF THE SITUATION LOOKS EVEN WETTER...WE COULD BE
TALKING ABOUT HIGHS IN THE 60S FOR FRIDAY. FOR NOW...KEPT IT
CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGY AND GIVEN IT IS NOT A SLAM DUNK THAT RAIN
WILL OVERSPREAD OUR REGION.

LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT ON SATURDAY...BUT A LINGERING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH COULD KEEP OUR WEATHER A LITTLE UNSETTLED (DUE TO RESIDUAL
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC FLOW). FOR NOW...WE JUST KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCES IN FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
AVERAGE A BIT BELOW NORMAL...UPPER 60S NORTHWEST TO UPPER 70S
SOUTHEAST WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. WE ARE IN SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY...MAINLY LATER AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FOR NOW...WE CONTINUE WITH VFR OVERNIGHT BUT THERE IS A SLIGHT
POSSIBILITY OF SOME FOG AT KGFL AND KPSF. FOR NOW...THE THREAT WAS
LOW ENOUGH TO NOT TO INCLUDE.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON ON
MONDAY. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BREEZE WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN AHEAD
OF AN ONCOMING STRONG COLD FRONT. LATER DURING THE AFTERNOON WE
EXPECT CONVECTION TO FIRE UP AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. NOT EXACTLY
SURE HOW ORGANIZED IT WILL BE. SINCE IT LOOKS TO BE A LATE
SHOW...FOR NOW WE JUST CARRIED VCSH AT ALL THE TAF
SITES...STARTING AT 18Z AT KGFL TO 21Z KPOU. THIS IS LIKELY THE
EARLIEST TIME ANY REAL CONVECTION COULD IMPACT THE TAFS.
CONVECTION REALLY MIGHT HOLD OFF UNTIL CLOSER TO 00Z. WE WILL TRY
TO PINPOINT THE TIMING OF SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION WITH THE NEXT
ISSUANCE OF TAFS IF WE CAN. AGAIN...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE DAY.

STAY TUNED.



OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE NIGHT-THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND MOST OF EARLY
MONDAY MORNING BEFORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ON MONDAY
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. TONIGHTS RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL REBOUND FROM THE 25 TO 45 PERCENT THIS EVENING TO 75
AND 95 PERCENT OVERNIGHT.

IT WILL BE VERY WARM AND MORE HUMID MONDAY WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES BETWEEN 45 AND 65 PERCENT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. THE STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS RISE UP TO
AROUND 1.5 INCHES AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD
LEAD TO SOME MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS.
ALSO SOME WITHIN BANK RIVER RISES WOULD BE EXPECTED.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES AND PASSES OVER THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KENX DOPPLER RADAR MAINTENANCE IS COMPLETE AND HAVE RETURNED TO
FULL OPERATIONAL MODE. THANK YOU FOR YOUR PATIENCE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BGM/WASULA
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM/WASULA
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM
EQUIPMENT...WFO ALY



000
FXUS61 KALY 030530
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
130 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME
OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE ALONG WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS. COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS ARRIVE FOR THE
MID WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 130 AM EDT...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVES TOWARDS JAMES
BAY THIS MORNING. A DECAYING MCS CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO WITH A SFC TROUGH. SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER CONTINUE...BUT
OVERALL THE DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS HAS CAUSED THE
WEAKENING TREND.

A SOUTHERLY BREEZE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN PARTS OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY DUE TO THE SFC HIGH MOVING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. HIGH CLOUDS HAVE INCREASED
NW OF THE CAPITAL REGION WITH THE DECAYING MCS...AND SOME SKY
TRENDS WERE REDONE.

TEMPS ARE VARIABLE WHERE THE BREEZE REMAINS UP...AND WHERE THE
WINDS HAVE DECOUPLED. EXPECT MID AND U60S IN PARTS OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...AND WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY /EXCEPT THE SRN DACKS
WHERE U50S WILL OCCUR/...AND U50S /BERKSHIRES AND SRN VT/ TO L60S
TO THE EAST.

A FEW SHOWERS OR AN ISOLD THUNDERSTORM MAY GRAZE THE WRN DACKS
BTWN 4-6 AM...AND A SLIGHT CHC WAS KEPT IN THERE. OVERALL...A
PLEASANT MORNING IS EXPECTED WITH STILL RATHER COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

SPC CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT THE REGION WITHIN THE SLIGHT RISK /15%/
WITH THE 18Z UPDATE AND NCEP MODEL SUITE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST AN
ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
EVENING. IMPRESSIVE THERMAL WARM ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT AS H850 TEMPS RISE CLOSE TO 20C MONDAY MORNING WITH FILTERED
SUNSHINE DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM DIMINISHING CONVECTION
UPSTREAM. STRONG SURFACE HEATING WELL INTO THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS
CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING
INSTABILITY. SBCAPES CLIMB TO BETWEEN 1-2K J/KG...30-40KTS 0-6KM
SHEAR AND ASSOCIATED HODOGRAPHS REVEALING CYCLONIC CURVATURE
WITH THE 0-1KM...SHOWALTERS DROPPING BELOW 0C /MAINLY ACROSS
E-NY/...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6.5-7.5 C/KM AND PWATS CLIMBING
TO AN AVERAGE VALUE OF 1.50 INCHES...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
PER COORDINATION...WE WILL PLACE SEVERE WORDING INTO THE
GRIDS/FORECAST FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. INITIAL
CONVECTIVE MODE WILL SCT-BKN CELLULAR STRUCTURES /PERHAPS
SUPERCELLULAR/ BEFORE EVOLVING INTO A SCT-BKN LINE OF CONVECTION
AS LENGTHENING HODOGRAPHS WILL FAVOR SOME LONG-LIVED CELLS AND/OR BOWS
CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL /FROM SPC SWODY2/.

SINCE THIS WILL LIKELY BE A LATE EVENT...QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH
WILL SURVIVE ONCE IT REACHES PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND
ESPECIALLY INTO LITCHFIELD COUNTY. SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION
EXPERIMENTAL REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS SUGGEST A WEAKENING TREND FOR
THESE AREAS...HOWEVER...WE WILL CONTINUE TO FINE TUNE THE
SPECIFICS WITH OVERNIGHT UPDATES.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA...A COOLER AND RATHER UNSETTLED CYCLONIC
FLOW REGIME EVOLVES WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE
INTO TUESDAY. IN FACT...IF ENOUGH SURFACE HEATING WERE TO
COMMENCE...ADDITIONAL HAIL THREAT MAY DEVELOP AS WET BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS FALL TO AROUND OR BELOW 10K AGL. H850 TEMPS FALL BACK TO
BETWEEN 10-15C WITH H500 TEMPS AVERAGING AROUND -15C.

CONDITIONS SHOULD QUIET DOWN TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OFF LAKE ONTARIO AS THOSE H850 TEMPS CONTINUE TO FALL BACK INTO
THE POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS...HOWEVER...THIS TOO WILL INCREASE THE
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES FOR SOME LAKE RESPONSE FOR SOME SHOWERS TO
IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE DACKS.

TEMPERATURES WILL INITIALLY BE QUITE WARM-HOT ON MONDAY IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH MAINLY 80S AND PERHAPS TOUCHING 90F
IN A FEW SPOTS BEFORE THE CLOUDS/STORMS ARRIVE. THEN TEMPERATURES
SLIPPING BACK TO NEAR TO A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY AUGUST THE
REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE TROUGH WILL OCCUPY THE NORTHEAST CONUS DURING THIS PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE
GREAT LAKES...BRINGING A TOUCH OF THE SEASON TO COME. IT WILL
BE A BIT COOLER AND LESS HUMID WITH HIGHS 75-80 IN THE VALLEYS...
LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER TERRAIN.

DUE TO CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD AIR ALOFT...THERE COULD BE A FEW
MAINLY AFTERNOON INSTABILITY SHOWERS...WELL NORTH OF I-90. OTHERWISE
IT WILL BE A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE AND PERHAPS A SPRINKLE EVEN
FURTHER SOUTH.

IT WILL BE PLEASANTLY COOL WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE 50S...WITH SOME MID OR UPPER 40S IN THE COOLEST MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

ON THURSDAY....ALL THE MODELS NOW INDICATE A SIGNIFICANT WAVE
WILL DEVELOP INTO A LOW PRESSURE AREA WELL TO THE SOUTH OF OUR
REGION. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION
MUCH LIKE A WINTER STORM. OF COURSE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALL
RAIN...AND RIGHT NOW THE RAIN SHIELD COULD REACH NORTH TO ABOUT
I-90 OR EVEN A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH BY EARLY FRIDAY. THURSDAY
LOOKS AS IF CLOUD INCREASE AND A FEW SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP SOUTH
OF ALBANY BY LATE IN THE DAY. WE INCREASE POPS TO 30 FOR NOW
EVERYWHERE BY FRIDAY AND CALL IT SHOWERS (ALTHOUGH THERE IS AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE IT COULD BE AN ALL DAY RAIN).

WITH CLOUDS AND CHANCE OF SHOWERS...HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 70S
BOTH DAYS...AND IF THE SITUATION LOOKS EVEN WETTER...WE COULD BE
TALKING ABOUT HIGHS IN THE 60S FOR FRIDAY. FOR NOW...KEPT IT
CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGY AND GIVEN IT IS NOT A SLAM DUNK THAT RAIN
WILL OVERSPREAD OUR REGION.

LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT ON SATURDAY...BUT A LINGERING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH COULD KEEP OUR WEATHER A LITTLE UNSETTLED (DUE TO RESIDUAL
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC FLOW). FOR NOW...WE JUST KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCES IN FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
AVERAGE A BIT BELOW NORMAL...UPPER 60S NORTHWEST TO UPPER 70S
SOUTHEAST WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. WE ARE IN SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY...MAINLY LATER AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FOR NOW...WE CONTINUE WITH VFR OVERNIGHT BUT THERE IS A SLIGHT
POSSIBILITY OF SOME FOG AT KGFL AND KPSF. FOR NOW...THE THREAT WAS
LOW ENOUGH TO NOT TO INCLUDE.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON ON
MONDAY. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BREEZE WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN AHEAD
OF AN ONCOMING STRONG COLD FRONT. LATER DURING THE AFTERNOON WE
EXPECT CONVECTION TO FIRE UP AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. NOT EXACTLY
SURE HOW ORGANIZED IT WILL BE. SINCE IT LOOKS TO BE A LATE
SHOW...FOR NOW WE JUST CARRIED VCSH AT ALL THE TAF
SITES...STARTING AT 18Z AT KGFL TO 21Z KPOU. THIS IS LIKELY THE
EARLIEST TIME ANY REAL CONVECTION COULD IMPACT THE TAFS.
CONVECTION REALLY MIGHT HOLD OFF UNTIL CLOSER TO 00Z. WE WILL TRY
TO PINPOINT THE TIMING OF SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION WITH THE NEXT
ISSUANCE OF TAFS IF WE CAN. AGAIN...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE DAY.

STAY TUNED.



OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE NIGHT-THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND MOST OF EARLY
MONDAY MORNING BEFORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ON MONDAY
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. TONIGHTS RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL REBOUND FROM THE 25 TO 45 PERCENT THIS EVENING TO 75
AND 95 PERCENT OVERNIGHT.

IT WILL BE VERY WARM AND MORE HUMID MONDAY WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES BETWEEN 45 AND 65 PERCENT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. THE STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS RISE UP TO
AROUND 1.5 INCHES AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD
LEAD TO SOME MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS.
ALSO SOME WITHIN BANK RIVER RISES WOULD BE EXPECTED.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES AND PASSES OVER THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KENX DOPPLER RADAR MAINTENANCE IS COMPLETE AND HAVE RETURNED TO
FULL OPERATIONAL MODE. THANK YOU FOR YOUR PATIENCE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BGM/WASULA
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM/WASULA
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM
EQUIPMENT...WFO ALY



000
FXUS61 KALY 030530
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
130 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME
OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE ALONG WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS. COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS ARRIVE FOR THE
MID WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 130 AM EDT...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVES TOWARDS JAMES
BAY THIS MORNING. A DECAYING MCS CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO WITH A SFC TROUGH. SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER CONTINUE...BUT
OVERALL THE DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS HAS CAUSED THE
WEAKENING TREND.

A SOUTHERLY BREEZE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN PARTS OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY DUE TO THE SFC HIGH MOVING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. HIGH CLOUDS HAVE INCREASED
NW OF THE CAPITAL REGION WITH THE DECAYING MCS...AND SOME SKY
TRENDS WERE REDONE.

TEMPS ARE VARIABLE WHERE THE BREEZE REMAINS UP...AND WHERE THE
WINDS HAVE DECOUPLED. EXPECT MID AND U60S IN PARTS OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...AND WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY /EXCEPT THE SRN DACKS
WHERE U50S WILL OCCUR/...AND U50S /BERKSHIRES AND SRN VT/ TO L60S
TO THE EAST.

A FEW SHOWERS OR AN ISOLD THUNDERSTORM MAY GRAZE THE WRN DACKS
BTWN 4-6 AM...AND A SLIGHT CHC WAS KEPT IN THERE. OVERALL...A
PLEASANT MORNING IS EXPECTED WITH STILL RATHER COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

SPC CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT THE REGION WITHIN THE SLIGHT RISK /15%/
WITH THE 18Z UPDATE AND NCEP MODEL SUITE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST AN
ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
EVENING. IMPRESSIVE THERMAL WARM ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT AS H850 TEMPS RISE CLOSE TO 20C MONDAY MORNING WITH FILTERED
SUNSHINE DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM DIMINISHING CONVECTION
UPSTREAM. STRONG SURFACE HEATING WELL INTO THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS
CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING
INSTABILITY. SBCAPES CLIMB TO BETWEEN 1-2K J/KG...30-40KTS 0-6KM
SHEAR AND ASSOCIATED HODOGRAPHS REVEALING CYCLONIC CURVATURE
WITH THE 0-1KM...SHOWALTERS DROPPING BELOW 0C /MAINLY ACROSS
E-NY/...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6.5-7.5 C/KM AND PWATS CLIMBING
TO AN AVERAGE VALUE OF 1.50 INCHES...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
PER COORDINATION...WE WILL PLACE SEVERE WORDING INTO THE
GRIDS/FORECAST FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. INITIAL
CONVECTIVE MODE WILL SCT-BKN CELLULAR STRUCTURES /PERHAPS
SUPERCELLULAR/ BEFORE EVOLVING INTO A SCT-BKN LINE OF CONVECTION
AS LENGTHENING HODOGRAPHS WILL FAVOR SOME LONG-LIVED CELLS AND/OR BOWS
CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL /FROM SPC SWODY2/.

SINCE THIS WILL LIKELY BE A LATE EVENT...QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH
WILL SURVIVE ONCE IT REACHES PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND
ESPECIALLY INTO LITCHFIELD COUNTY. SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION
EXPERIMENTAL REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS SUGGEST A WEAKENING TREND FOR
THESE AREAS...HOWEVER...WE WILL CONTINUE TO FINE TUNE THE
SPECIFICS WITH OVERNIGHT UPDATES.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA...A COOLER AND RATHER UNSETTLED CYCLONIC
FLOW REGIME EVOLVES WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE
INTO TUESDAY. IN FACT...IF ENOUGH SURFACE HEATING WERE TO
COMMENCE...ADDITIONAL HAIL THREAT MAY DEVELOP AS WET BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS FALL TO AROUND OR BELOW 10K AGL. H850 TEMPS FALL BACK TO
BETWEEN 10-15C WITH H500 TEMPS AVERAGING AROUND -15C.

CONDITIONS SHOULD QUIET DOWN TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OFF LAKE ONTARIO AS THOSE H850 TEMPS CONTINUE TO FALL BACK INTO
THE POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS...HOWEVER...THIS TOO WILL INCREASE THE
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES FOR SOME LAKE RESPONSE FOR SOME SHOWERS TO
IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE DACKS.

TEMPERATURES WILL INITIALLY BE QUITE WARM-HOT ON MONDAY IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH MAINLY 80S AND PERHAPS TOUCHING 90F
IN A FEW SPOTS BEFORE THE CLOUDS/STORMS ARRIVE. THEN TEMPERATURES
SLIPPING BACK TO NEAR TO A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY AUGUST THE
REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE TROUGH WILL OCCUPY THE NORTHEAST CONUS DURING THIS PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE
GREAT LAKES...BRINGING A TOUCH OF THE SEASON TO COME. IT WILL
BE A BIT COOLER AND LESS HUMID WITH HIGHS 75-80 IN THE VALLEYS...
LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER TERRAIN.

DUE TO CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD AIR ALOFT...THERE COULD BE A FEW
MAINLY AFTERNOON INSTABILITY SHOWERS...WELL NORTH OF I-90. OTHERWISE
IT WILL BE A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE AND PERHAPS A SPRINKLE EVEN
FURTHER SOUTH.

IT WILL BE PLEASANTLY COOL WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE 50S...WITH SOME MID OR UPPER 40S IN THE COOLEST MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

ON THURSDAY....ALL THE MODELS NOW INDICATE A SIGNIFICANT WAVE
WILL DEVELOP INTO A LOW PRESSURE AREA WELL TO THE SOUTH OF OUR
REGION. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION
MUCH LIKE A WINTER STORM. OF COURSE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALL
RAIN...AND RIGHT NOW THE RAIN SHIELD COULD REACH NORTH TO ABOUT
I-90 OR EVEN A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH BY EARLY FRIDAY. THURSDAY
LOOKS AS IF CLOUD INCREASE AND A FEW SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP SOUTH
OF ALBANY BY LATE IN THE DAY. WE INCREASE POPS TO 30 FOR NOW
EVERYWHERE BY FRIDAY AND CALL IT SHOWERS (ALTHOUGH THERE IS AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE IT COULD BE AN ALL DAY RAIN).

WITH CLOUDS AND CHANCE OF SHOWERS...HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 70S
BOTH DAYS...AND IF THE SITUATION LOOKS EVEN WETTER...WE COULD BE
TALKING ABOUT HIGHS IN THE 60S FOR FRIDAY. FOR NOW...KEPT IT
CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGY AND GIVEN IT IS NOT A SLAM DUNK THAT RAIN
WILL OVERSPREAD OUR REGION.

LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT ON SATURDAY...BUT A LINGERING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH COULD KEEP OUR WEATHER A LITTLE UNSETTLED (DUE TO RESIDUAL
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC FLOW). FOR NOW...WE JUST KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCES IN FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
AVERAGE A BIT BELOW NORMAL...UPPER 60S NORTHWEST TO UPPER 70S
SOUTHEAST WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. WE ARE IN SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY...MAINLY LATER AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FOR NOW...WE CONTINUE WITH VFR OVERNIGHT BUT THERE IS A SLIGHT
POSSIBILITY OF SOME FOG AT KGFL AND KPSF. FOR NOW...THE THREAT WAS
LOW ENOUGH TO NOT TO INCLUDE.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON ON
MONDAY. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BREEZE WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN AHEAD
OF AN ONCOMING STRONG COLD FRONT. LATER DURING THE AFTERNOON WE
EXPECT CONVECTION TO FIRE UP AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. NOT EXACTLY
SURE HOW ORGANIZED IT WILL BE. SINCE IT LOOKS TO BE A LATE
SHOW...FOR NOW WE JUST CARRIED VCSH AT ALL THE TAF
SITES...STARTING AT 18Z AT KGFL TO 21Z KPOU. THIS IS LIKELY THE
EARLIEST TIME ANY REAL CONVECTION COULD IMPACT THE TAFS.
CONVECTION REALLY MIGHT HOLD OFF UNTIL CLOSER TO 00Z. WE WILL TRY
TO PINPOINT THE TIMING OF SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION WITH THE NEXT
ISSUANCE OF TAFS IF WE CAN. AGAIN...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE DAY.

STAY TUNED.



OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE NIGHT-THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND MOST OF EARLY
MONDAY MORNING BEFORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ON MONDAY
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. TONIGHTS RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL REBOUND FROM THE 25 TO 45 PERCENT THIS EVENING TO 75
AND 95 PERCENT OVERNIGHT.

IT WILL BE VERY WARM AND MORE HUMID MONDAY WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES BETWEEN 45 AND 65 PERCENT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. THE STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS RISE UP TO
AROUND 1.5 INCHES AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD
LEAD TO SOME MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS.
ALSO SOME WITHIN BANK RIVER RISES WOULD BE EXPECTED.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES AND PASSES OVER THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KENX DOPPLER RADAR MAINTENANCE IS COMPLETE AND HAVE RETURNED TO
FULL OPERATIONAL MODE. THANK YOU FOR YOUR PATIENCE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BGM/WASULA
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM/WASULA
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM
EQUIPMENT...WFO ALY



000
FXUS61 KALY 030530
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
130 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME
OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE ALONG WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS. COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS ARRIVE FOR THE
MID WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 130 AM EDT...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVES TOWARDS JAMES
BAY THIS MORNING. A DECAYING MCS CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO WITH A SFC TROUGH. SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER CONTINUE...BUT
OVERALL THE DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS HAS CAUSED THE
WEAKENING TREND.

A SOUTHERLY BREEZE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN PARTS OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY DUE TO THE SFC HIGH MOVING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. HIGH CLOUDS HAVE INCREASED
NW OF THE CAPITAL REGION WITH THE DECAYING MCS...AND SOME SKY
TRENDS WERE REDONE.

TEMPS ARE VARIABLE WHERE THE BREEZE REMAINS UP...AND WHERE THE
WINDS HAVE DECOUPLED. EXPECT MID AND U60S IN PARTS OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...AND WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY /EXCEPT THE SRN DACKS
WHERE U50S WILL OCCUR/...AND U50S /BERKSHIRES AND SRN VT/ TO L60S
TO THE EAST.

A FEW SHOWERS OR AN ISOLD THUNDERSTORM MAY GRAZE THE WRN DACKS
BTWN 4-6 AM...AND A SLIGHT CHC WAS KEPT IN THERE. OVERALL...A
PLEASANT MORNING IS EXPECTED WITH STILL RATHER COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

SPC CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT THE REGION WITHIN THE SLIGHT RISK /15%/
WITH THE 18Z UPDATE AND NCEP MODEL SUITE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST AN
ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
EVENING. IMPRESSIVE THERMAL WARM ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT AS H850 TEMPS RISE CLOSE TO 20C MONDAY MORNING WITH FILTERED
SUNSHINE DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM DIMINISHING CONVECTION
UPSTREAM. STRONG SURFACE HEATING WELL INTO THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS
CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING
INSTABILITY. SBCAPES CLIMB TO BETWEEN 1-2K J/KG...30-40KTS 0-6KM
SHEAR AND ASSOCIATED HODOGRAPHS REVEALING CYCLONIC CURVATURE
WITH THE 0-1KM...SHOWALTERS DROPPING BELOW 0C /MAINLY ACROSS
E-NY/...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6.5-7.5 C/KM AND PWATS CLIMBING
TO AN AVERAGE VALUE OF 1.50 INCHES...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
PER COORDINATION...WE WILL PLACE SEVERE WORDING INTO THE
GRIDS/FORECAST FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. INITIAL
CONVECTIVE MODE WILL SCT-BKN CELLULAR STRUCTURES /PERHAPS
SUPERCELLULAR/ BEFORE EVOLVING INTO A SCT-BKN LINE OF CONVECTION
AS LENGTHENING HODOGRAPHS WILL FAVOR SOME LONG-LIVED CELLS AND/OR BOWS
CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL /FROM SPC SWODY2/.

SINCE THIS WILL LIKELY BE A LATE EVENT...QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH
WILL SURVIVE ONCE IT REACHES PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND
ESPECIALLY INTO LITCHFIELD COUNTY. SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION
EXPERIMENTAL REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS SUGGEST A WEAKENING TREND FOR
THESE AREAS...HOWEVER...WE WILL CONTINUE TO FINE TUNE THE
SPECIFICS WITH OVERNIGHT UPDATES.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA...A COOLER AND RATHER UNSETTLED CYCLONIC
FLOW REGIME EVOLVES WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE
INTO TUESDAY. IN FACT...IF ENOUGH SURFACE HEATING WERE TO
COMMENCE...ADDITIONAL HAIL THREAT MAY DEVELOP AS WET BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS FALL TO AROUND OR BELOW 10K AGL. H850 TEMPS FALL BACK TO
BETWEEN 10-15C WITH H500 TEMPS AVERAGING AROUND -15C.

CONDITIONS SHOULD QUIET DOWN TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OFF LAKE ONTARIO AS THOSE H850 TEMPS CONTINUE TO FALL BACK INTO
THE POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS...HOWEVER...THIS TOO WILL INCREASE THE
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES FOR SOME LAKE RESPONSE FOR SOME SHOWERS TO
IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE DACKS.

TEMPERATURES WILL INITIALLY BE QUITE WARM-HOT ON MONDAY IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH MAINLY 80S AND PERHAPS TOUCHING 90F
IN A FEW SPOTS BEFORE THE CLOUDS/STORMS ARRIVE. THEN TEMPERATURES
SLIPPING BACK TO NEAR TO A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY AUGUST THE
REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE TROUGH WILL OCCUPY THE NORTHEAST CONUS DURING THIS PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE
GREAT LAKES...BRINGING A TOUCH OF THE SEASON TO COME. IT WILL
BE A BIT COOLER AND LESS HUMID WITH HIGHS 75-80 IN THE VALLEYS...
LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER TERRAIN.

DUE TO CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD AIR ALOFT...THERE COULD BE A FEW
MAINLY AFTERNOON INSTABILITY SHOWERS...WELL NORTH OF I-90. OTHERWISE
IT WILL BE A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE AND PERHAPS A SPRINKLE EVEN
FURTHER SOUTH.

IT WILL BE PLEASANTLY COOL WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE 50S...WITH SOME MID OR UPPER 40S IN THE COOLEST MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

ON THURSDAY....ALL THE MODELS NOW INDICATE A SIGNIFICANT WAVE
WILL DEVELOP INTO A LOW PRESSURE AREA WELL TO THE SOUTH OF OUR
REGION. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION
MUCH LIKE A WINTER STORM. OF COURSE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALL
RAIN...AND RIGHT NOW THE RAIN SHIELD COULD REACH NORTH TO ABOUT
I-90 OR EVEN A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH BY EARLY FRIDAY. THURSDAY
LOOKS AS IF CLOUD INCREASE AND A FEW SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP SOUTH
OF ALBANY BY LATE IN THE DAY. WE INCREASE POPS TO 30 FOR NOW
EVERYWHERE BY FRIDAY AND CALL IT SHOWERS (ALTHOUGH THERE IS AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE IT COULD BE AN ALL DAY RAIN).

WITH CLOUDS AND CHANCE OF SHOWERS...HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 70S
BOTH DAYS...AND IF THE SITUATION LOOKS EVEN WETTER...WE COULD BE
TALKING ABOUT HIGHS IN THE 60S FOR FRIDAY. FOR NOW...KEPT IT
CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGY AND GIVEN IT IS NOT A SLAM DUNK THAT RAIN
WILL OVERSPREAD OUR REGION.

LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT ON SATURDAY...BUT A LINGERING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH COULD KEEP OUR WEATHER A LITTLE UNSETTLED (DUE TO RESIDUAL
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC FLOW). FOR NOW...WE JUST KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCES IN FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
AVERAGE A BIT BELOW NORMAL...UPPER 60S NORTHWEST TO UPPER 70S
SOUTHEAST WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. WE ARE IN SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY...MAINLY LATER AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FOR NOW...WE CONTINUE WITH VFR OVERNIGHT BUT THERE IS A SLIGHT
POSSIBILITY OF SOME FOG AT KGFL AND KPSF. FOR NOW...THE THREAT WAS
LOW ENOUGH TO NOT TO INCLUDE.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON ON
MONDAY. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BREEZE WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN AHEAD
OF AN ONCOMING STRONG COLD FRONT. LATER DURING THE AFTERNOON WE
EXPECT CONVECTION TO FIRE UP AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. NOT EXACTLY
SURE HOW ORGANIZED IT WILL BE. SINCE IT LOOKS TO BE A LATE
SHOW...FOR NOW WE JUST CARRIED VCSH AT ALL THE TAF
SITES...STARTING AT 18Z AT KGFL TO 21Z KPOU. THIS IS LIKELY THE
EARLIEST TIME ANY REAL CONVECTION COULD IMPACT THE TAFS.
CONVECTION REALLY MIGHT HOLD OFF UNTIL CLOSER TO 00Z. WE WILL TRY
TO PINPOINT THE TIMING OF SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION WITH THE NEXT
ISSUANCE OF TAFS IF WE CAN. AGAIN...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE DAY.

STAY TUNED.



OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE NIGHT-THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND MOST OF EARLY
MONDAY MORNING BEFORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ON MONDAY
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. TONIGHTS RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL REBOUND FROM THE 25 TO 45 PERCENT THIS EVENING TO 75
AND 95 PERCENT OVERNIGHT.

IT WILL BE VERY WARM AND MORE HUMID MONDAY WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES BETWEEN 45 AND 65 PERCENT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. THE STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS RISE UP TO
AROUND 1.5 INCHES AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD
LEAD TO SOME MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS.
ALSO SOME WITHIN BANK RIVER RISES WOULD BE EXPECTED.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES AND PASSES OVER THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KENX DOPPLER RADAR MAINTENANCE IS COMPLETE AND HAVE RETURNED TO
FULL OPERATIONAL MODE. THANK YOU FOR YOUR PATIENCE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BGM/WASULA
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM/WASULA
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM
EQUIPMENT...WFO ALY



000
FXUS61 KALY 030216
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1015 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT AND MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL
BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE ALONG
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS
ARRIVE FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1015 PM EDT...STILL A NICE SUMMER EVENING. THE SKY LOCALLY WAS
CLEAR ENOUGH TO SEE THE PASSAGE OF THE ISS GO OVERHEAD AROUND 9:16
PM.

TEMPERATURES WERE SLIPPING INTO THE 70S WHERE A LIGHT SOUTHERLY
BREEZE LINGERED (LIKE ALBANY) BUT DOWN INTO THE 60S WHERE THE WIND
HAD GONE COMPLETELY CALM (NORTH ADAMS). DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE 50S.

OVERALL...OVERNIGHTS LOOK REASONABLE AND LEFT THEM ALONE. ADJUSTED
THE HOURLY GRIDS.

FURTHER UPSTREAM...A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUED ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN INTO ONTARIO.
THIS LIKELY A SIGNAL FOR OUR UPCOMING
WEATHER DURING MONDAY.

HOWEVER...FOR OVERNIGHT...IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND
TRANQUIL. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL...BUT NOT AS LOW AS LAST NIGHT.
LOOK FOR LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S (IN THE
CAPITAL REGION). DEWPOINTS LOOK TO CREEP UP CLOSER TO 60 WITH
TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

SPC CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT THE REGION WITHIN THE SLIGHT RISK /15%/
WITH THE 18Z UPDATE AND NCEP MODEL SUITE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST AN
ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
EVENING. IMPRESSIVE THERMAL WARM ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT AS H850 TEMPS RISE CLOSE TO 20C MONDAY MORNING WITH FILTERED
SUNSHINE DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM DIMINISHING CONVECTION
UPSTREAM. STRONG SURFACE HEATING WELL INTO THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS
CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING
INSTABILITY. SBCAPES CLIMB TO BETWEEN 1-2K J/KG...30-40KTS 0-6KM
SHEAR AND ASSOCIATED HODOGRAPHS REVEALING CYCLONIC CURVATURE
WITH THE 0-1KM...SHOWALTERS DROPPING BELOW 0C /MAINLY ACROSS
E-NY/...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6.5-7.5 C/KM AND PWATS CLIMBING
TO AN AVERAGE VALUE OF 1.50 INCHES...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
PER COORDINATION...WE WILL PLACE SEVERE WORDING INTO THE
GRIDS/FORECAST FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. INITIAL
CONVECTIVE MODE WILL SCT-BKN CELLULAR STRUCTURES /PERHAPS
SUPERCELLULAR/ BEFORE EVOLVING INTO A SCT-BKN LINE OF CONVECTION
AS LENGTHENING HODOGRAPHS WILL FAVOR SOME LONG-LIVED CELLS AND/OR BOWS
CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL /FROM SPC SWODY2/.

SINCE THIS WILL LIKELY BE A LATE EVENT...QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH
WILL SURVIVE ONCE IT REACHES PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND
ESPECIALLY INTO LITCHFIELD COUNTY. SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION
EXPERIMENTAL REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS SUGGEST A WEAKENING TREND FOR
THESE AREAS...HOWEVER...WE WILL CONTINUE TO FINE TUNE THE
SPECIFICS WITH OVERNIGHT UPDATES.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA...A COOLER AND RATHER UNSETTLED CYCLONIC
FLOW REGIME EVOLVES WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE
INTO TUESDAY. IN FACT...IF ENOUGH SURFACE HEATING WERE TO
COMMENCE...ADDITIONAL HAIL THREAT MAY DEVELOP AS WET BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS FALL TO AROUND OR BELOW 10K AGL. H850 TEMPS FALL BACK TO
BETWEEN 10-15C WITH H500 TEMPS AVERAGING AROUND -15C.

CONDITIONS SHOULD QUIET DOWN TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OFF LAKE ONTARIO AS THOSE H850 TEMPS CONTINUE TO FALL BACK INTO
THE POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS...HOWEVER...THIS TOO WILL INCREASE THE
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES FOR SOME LAKE RESPONSE FOR SOME SHOWERS TO
IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE DACKS.

TEMPERATURES WILL INITIALLY BE QUITE WARM-HOT ON MONDAY IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH MAINLY 80S AND PERHAPS TOUCHING 90F
IN A FEW SPOTS BEFORE THE CLOUDS/STORMS ARRIVE. THEN TEMPERATURES
SLIPPING BACK TO NEAR TO A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY AUGUST THE
REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE TROUGH WILL OCCUPY THE NORTHEAST CONUS DURING THIS PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE
GREAT LAKES...BRINGING A TOUCH OF THE SEASON TO COME. IT WILL
BE A BIT COOLER AND LESS HUMID WITH HIGHS 75-80 IN THE VALLEYS...
LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER TERRAIN.

DUE TO CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD AIR ALOFT...THERE COULD BE A FEW
MAINLY AFTERNOON INSTABILITY SHOWERS...WELL NORTH OF I-90. OTHERWISE
IT WILL BE A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE AND PERHAPS A SPRINKLE EVEN
FURTHER SOUTH.

IT WILL BE PLEASANTLY COOL WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE 50S...WITH SOME MID OR UPPER 40S IN THE COOLEST MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

ON THURSDAY....ALL THE MODELS NOW INDICATE A SIGNIFICANT WAVE
WILL DEVELOP INTO A LOW PRESSURE AREA WELL TO THE SOUTH OF OUR
REGION. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION
MUCH LIKE A WINTER STORM. OF COURSE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALL
RAIN...AND RIGHT NOW THE RAIN SHIELD COULD REACH NORTH TO ABOUT
I-90 OR EVEN A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH BY EARLY FRIDAY. THURSDAY
LOOKS AS IF CLOUD INCREASE AND A FEW SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP SOUTH
OF ALBANY BY LATE IN THE DAY. WE INCREASE POPS TO 30 FOR NOW
EVERYWHERE BY FRIDAY AND CALL IT SHOWERS (ALTHOUGH THERE IS AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE IT COULD BE AN ALL DAY RAIN).

WITH CLOUDS AND CHANCE OF SHOWERS...HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 70S
BOTH DAYS...AND IF THE SITUATION LOOKS EVEN WETTER...WE COULD BE
TALKING ABOUT HIGHS IN THE 60S FOR FRIDAY. FOR NOW...KEPT IT
CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGY AND GIVEN IT IS NOT A SLAM DUNK THAT RAIN
WILL OVERSPREAD OUR REGION.

LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT ON SATURDAY...BUT A LINGERING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH COULD KEEP OUR WEATHER A LITTLE UNSETTLED (DUE TO RESIDUAL
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC FLOW). FOR NOW...WE JUST KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCES IN FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
AVERAGE A BIT BELOW NORMAL...UPPER 60S NORTHWEST TO UPPER 70S
SOUTHEAST WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. WE ARE IN SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY...MAINLY LATER AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FOR NOW...WE CONTINUE WITH VFR OVERNIGHT BUT THERE IS A SLIGHT
POSSIBILITY OF SOME FOG AT KGFL AND KPSF. FOR NOW...THE THREAT WAS
LOW ENOUGH TO NOT TO INCLUDE.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON ON
MONDAY. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BREEZE WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN AHEAD
OF AN ONCOMING STRONG COLD FRONT. LATER DURING THE AFTERNOON WE
EXPECT CONVECTION TO FIRE UP AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. NOT EXACTLY
SURE HOW ORGANIZED IT WILL BE. SINCE IT LOOKS TO BE A LATE
SHOW...FOR NOW WE JUST CARRIED VCSH AT ALL THE TAF
SITES...STARTING AT 18Z AT KGFL TO 21Z KPOU. THIS IS LIKELY THE
EARLIEST TIME ANY REAL CONVECTION COULD IMPACT THE TAFS.
CONVECTION REALLY MIGHT HOLD OFF UNTIL CLOSER TO 00Z. WE WILL TRY
TO PINPOINT THE TIMING OF SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION WITH THE NEXT
ISSUANCE OF TAFS IF WE CAN. AGAIN...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE DAY.

STAY TUNED.



OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE NIGHT-THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND MOST OF EARLY
MONDAY MORNING BEFORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ON MONDAY
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. TONIGHTS RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL REBOUND FROM THE 25 TO 45 PERCENT THIS EVENING TO 75
AND 95 PERCENT OVERNIGHT.

IT WILL BE VERY WARM AND MORE HUMID MONDAY WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES BETWEEN 45 AND 65 PERCENT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. THE STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS RISE UP TO
AROUND 1.5 INCHES AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD
LEAD TO SOME MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS.
ALSO SOME WITHIN BANK RIVER RISES WOULD BE EXPECTED.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES AND PASSES OVER THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KENX DOPPLER RADAR MAINTENANCE IS COMPLETE AND HAVE RETURNED TO
FULL OPERATIONAL MODE. THANK YOU FOR YOUR PATIENCE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM
EQUIPMENT...




000
FXUS61 KALY 030216
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1015 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT AND MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL
BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE ALONG
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS
ARRIVE FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1015 PM EDT...STILL A NICE SUMMER EVENING. THE SKY LOCALLY WAS
CLEAR ENOUGH TO SEE THE PASSAGE OF THE ISS GO OVERHEAD AROUND 9:16
PM.

TEMPERATURES WERE SLIPPING INTO THE 70S WHERE A LIGHT SOUTHERLY
BREEZE LINGERED (LIKE ALBANY) BUT DOWN INTO THE 60S WHERE THE WIND
HAD GONE COMPLETELY CALM (NORTH ADAMS). DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE 50S.

OVERALL...OVERNIGHTS LOOK REASONABLE AND LEFT THEM ALONE. ADJUSTED
THE HOURLY GRIDS.

FURTHER UPSTREAM...A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUED ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN INTO ONTARIO.
THIS LIKELY A SIGNAL FOR OUR UPCOMING
WEATHER DURING MONDAY.

HOWEVER...FOR OVERNIGHT...IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND
TRANQUIL. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL...BUT NOT AS LOW AS LAST NIGHT.
LOOK FOR LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S (IN THE
CAPITAL REGION). DEWPOINTS LOOK TO CREEP UP CLOSER TO 60 WITH
TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

SPC CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT THE REGION WITHIN THE SLIGHT RISK /15%/
WITH THE 18Z UPDATE AND NCEP MODEL SUITE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST AN
ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
EVENING. IMPRESSIVE THERMAL WARM ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT AS H850 TEMPS RISE CLOSE TO 20C MONDAY MORNING WITH FILTERED
SUNSHINE DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM DIMINISHING CONVECTION
UPSTREAM. STRONG SURFACE HEATING WELL INTO THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS
CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING
INSTABILITY. SBCAPES CLIMB TO BETWEEN 1-2K J/KG...30-40KTS 0-6KM
SHEAR AND ASSOCIATED HODOGRAPHS REVEALING CYCLONIC CURVATURE
WITH THE 0-1KM...SHOWALTERS DROPPING BELOW 0C /MAINLY ACROSS
E-NY/...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6.5-7.5 C/KM AND PWATS CLIMBING
TO AN AVERAGE VALUE OF 1.50 INCHES...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
PER COORDINATION...WE WILL PLACE SEVERE WORDING INTO THE
GRIDS/FORECAST FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. INITIAL
CONVECTIVE MODE WILL SCT-BKN CELLULAR STRUCTURES /PERHAPS
SUPERCELLULAR/ BEFORE EVOLVING INTO A SCT-BKN LINE OF CONVECTION
AS LENGTHENING HODOGRAPHS WILL FAVOR SOME LONG-LIVED CELLS AND/OR BOWS
CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL /FROM SPC SWODY2/.

SINCE THIS WILL LIKELY BE A LATE EVENT...QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH
WILL SURVIVE ONCE IT REACHES PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND
ESPECIALLY INTO LITCHFIELD COUNTY. SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION
EXPERIMENTAL REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS SUGGEST A WEAKENING TREND FOR
THESE AREAS...HOWEVER...WE WILL CONTINUE TO FINE TUNE THE
SPECIFICS WITH OVERNIGHT UPDATES.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA...A COOLER AND RATHER UNSETTLED CYCLONIC
FLOW REGIME EVOLVES WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE
INTO TUESDAY. IN FACT...IF ENOUGH SURFACE HEATING WERE TO
COMMENCE...ADDITIONAL HAIL THREAT MAY DEVELOP AS WET BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS FALL TO AROUND OR BELOW 10K AGL. H850 TEMPS FALL BACK TO
BETWEEN 10-15C WITH H500 TEMPS AVERAGING AROUND -15C.

CONDITIONS SHOULD QUIET DOWN TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OFF LAKE ONTARIO AS THOSE H850 TEMPS CONTINUE TO FALL BACK INTO
THE POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS...HOWEVER...THIS TOO WILL INCREASE THE
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES FOR SOME LAKE RESPONSE FOR SOME SHOWERS TO
IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE DACKS.

TEMPERATURES WILL INITIALLY BE QUITE WARM-HOT ON MONDAY IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH MAINLY 80S AND PERHAPS TOUCHING 90F
IN A FEW SPOTS BEFORE THE CLOUDS/STORMS ARRIVE. THEN TEMPERATURES
SLIPPING BACK TO NEAR TO A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY AUGUST THE
REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE TROUGH WILL OCCUPY THE NORTHEAST CONUS DURING THIS PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE
GREAT LAKES...BRINGING A TOUCH OF THE SEASON TO COME. IT WILL
BE A BIT COOLER AND LESS HUMID WITH HIGHS 75-80 IN THE VALLEYS...
LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER TERRAIN.

DUE TO CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD AIR ALOFT...THERE COULD BE A FEW
MAINLY AFTERNOON INSTABILITY SHOWERS...WELL NORTH OF I-90. OTHERWISE
IT WILL BE A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE AND PERHAPS A SPRINKLE EVEN
FURTHER SOUTH.

IT WILL BE PLEASANTLY COOL WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE 50S...WITH SOME MID OR UPPER 40S IN THE COOLEST MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

ON THURSDAY....ALL THE MODELS NOW INDICATE A SIGNIFICANT WAVE
WILL DEVELOP INTO A LOW PRESSURE AREA WELL TO THE SOUTH OF OUR
REGION. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION
MUCH LIKE A WINTER STORM. OF COURSE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALL
RAIN...AND RIGHT NOW THE RAIN SHIELD COULD REACH NORTH TO ABOUT
I-90 OR EVEN A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH BY EARLY FRIDAY. THURSDAY
LOOKS AS IF CLOUD INCREASE AND A FEW SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP SOUTH
OF ALBANY BY LATE IN THE DAY. WE INCREASE POPS TO 30 FOR NOW
EVERYWHERE BY FRIDAY AND CALL IT SHOWERS (ALTHOUGH THERE IS AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE IT COULD BE AN ALL DAY RAIN).

WITH CLOUDS AND CHANCE OF SHOWERS...HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 70S
BOTH DAYS...AND IF THE SITUATION LOOKS EVEN WETTER...WE COULD BE
TALKING ABOUT HIGHS IN THE 60S FOR FRIDAY. FOR NOW...KEPT IT
CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGY AND GIVEN IT IS NOT A SLAM DUNK THAT RAIN
WILL OVERSPREAD OUR REGION.

LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT ON SATURDAY...BUT A LINGERING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH COULD KEEP OUR WEATHER A LITTLE UNSETTLED (DUE TO RESIDUAL
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC FLOW). FOR NOW...WE JUST KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCES IN FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
AVERAGE A BIT BELOW NORMAL...UPPER 60S NORTHWEST TO UPPER 70S
SOUTHEAST WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. WE ARE IN SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY...MAINLY LATER AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FOR NOW...WE CONTINUE WITH VFR OVERNIGHT BUT THERE IS A SLIGHT
POSSIBILITY OF SOME FOG AT KGFL AND KPSF. FOR NOW...THE THREAT WAS
LOW ENOUGH TO NOT TO INCLUDE.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON ON
MONDAY. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BREEZE WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN AHEAD
OF AN ONCOMING STRONG COLD FRONT. LATER DURING THE AFTERNOON WE
EXPECT CONVECTION TO FIRE UP AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. NOT EXACTLY
SURE HOW ORGANIZED IT WILL BE. SINCE IT LOOKS TO BE A LATE
SHOW...FOR NOW WE JUST CARRIED VCSH AT ALL THE TAF
SITES...STARTING AT 18Z AT KGFL TO 21Z KPOU. THIS IS LIKELY THE
EARLIEST TIME ANY REAL CONVECTION COULD IMPACT THE TAFS.
CONVECTION REALLY MIGHT HOLD OFF UNTIL CLOSER TO 00Z. WE WILL TRY
TO PINPOINT THE TIMING OF SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION WITH THE NEXT
ISSUANCE OF TAFS IF WE CAN. AGAIN...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE DAY.

STAY TUNED.



OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE NIGHT-THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND MOST OF EARLY
MONDAY MORNING BEFORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ON MONDAY
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. TONIGHTS RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL REBOUND FROM THE 25 TO 45 PERCENT THIS EVENING TO 75
AND 95 PERCENT OVERNIGHT.

IT WILL BE VERY WARM AND MORE HUMID MONDAY WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES BETWEEN 45 AND 65 PERCENT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. THE STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS RISE UP TO
AROUND 1.5 INCHES AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD
LEAD TO SOME MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS.
ALSO SOME WITHIN BANK RIVER RISES WOULD BE EXPECTED.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES AND PASSES OVER THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KENX DOPPLER RADAR MAINTENANCE IS COMPLETE AND HAVE RETURNED TO
FULL OPERATIONAL MODE. THANK YOU FOR YOUR PATIENCE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM
EQUIPMENT...



000
FXUS61 KALY 030216
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1015 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT AND MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL
BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE ALONG
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS
ARRIVE FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1015 PM EDT...STILL A NICE SUMMER EVENING. THE SKY LOCALLY WAS
CLEAR ENOUGH TO SEE THE PASSAGE OF THE ISS GO OVERHEAD AROUND 9:16
PM.

TEMPERATURES WERE SLIPPING INTO THE 70S WHERE A LIGHT SOUTHERLY
BREEZE LINGERED (LIKE ALBANY) BUT DOWN INTO THE 60S WHERE THE WIND
HAD GONE COMPLETELY CALM (NORTH ADAMS). DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE 50S.

OVERALL...OVERNIGHTS LOOK REASONABLE AND LEFT THEM ALONE. ADJUSTED
THE HOURLY GRIDS.

FURTHER UPSTREAM...A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUED ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN INTO ONTARIO.
THIS LIKELY A SIGNAL FOR OUR UPCOMING
WEATHER DURING MONDAY.

HOWEVER...FOR OVERNIGHT...IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND
TRANQUIL. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL...BUT NOT AS LOW AS LAST NIGHT.
LOOK FOR LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S (IN THE
CAPITAL REGION). DEWPOINTS LOOK TO CREEP UP CLOSER TO 60 WITH
TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

SPC CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT THE REGION WITHIN THE SLIGHT RISK /15%/
WITH THE 18Z UPDATE AND NCEP MODEL SUITE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST AN
ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
EVENING. IMPRESSIVE THERMAL WARM ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT AS H850 TEMPS RISE CLOSE TO 20C MONDAY MORNING WITH FILTERED
SUNSHINE DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM DIMINISHING CONVECTION
UPSTREAM. STRONG SURFACE HEATING WELL INTO THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS
CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING
INSTABILITY. SBCAPES CLIMB TO BETWEEN 1-2K J/KG...30-40KTS 0-6KM
SHEAR AND ASSOCIATED HODOGRAPHS REVEALING CYCLONIC CURVATURE
WITH THE 0-1KM...SHOWALTERS DROPPING BELOW 0C /MAINLY ACROSS
E-NY/...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6.5-7.5 C/KM AND PWATS CLIMBING
TO AN AVERAGE VALUE OF 1.50 INCHES...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
PER COORDINATION...WE WILL PLACE SEVERE WORDING INTO THE
GRIDS/FORECAST FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. INITIAL
CONVECTIVE MODE WILL SCT-BKN CELLULAR STRUCTURES /PERHAPS
SUPERCELLULAR/ BEFORE EVOLVING INTO A SCT-BKN LINE OF CONVECTION
AS LENGTHENING HODOGRAPHS WILL FAVOR SOME LONG-LIVED CELLS AND/OR BOWS
CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL /FROM SPC SWODY2/.

SINCE THIS WILL LIKELY BE A LATE EVENT...QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH
WILL SURVIVE ONCE IT REACHES PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND
ESPECIALLY INTO LITCHFIELD COUNTY. SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION
EXPERIMENTAL REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS SUGGEST A WEAKENING TREND FOR
THESE AREAS...HOWEVER...WE WILL CONTINUE TO FINE TUNE THE
SPECIFICS WITH OVERNIGHT UPDATES.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA...A COOLER AND RATHER UNSETTLED CYCLONIC
FLOW REGIME EVOLVES WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE
INTO TUESDAY. IN FACT...IF ENOUGH SURFACE HEATING WERE TO
COMMENCE...ADDITIONAL HAIL THREAT MAY DEVELOP AS WET BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS FALL TO AROUND OR BELOW 10K AGL. H850 TEMPS FALL BACK TO
BETWEEN 10-15C WITH H500 TEMPS AVERAGING AROUND -15C.

CONDITIONS SHOULD QUIET DOWN TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OFF LAKE ONTARIO AS THOSE H850 TEMPS CONTINUE TO FALL BACK INTO
THE POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS...HOWEVER...THIS TOO WILL INCREASE THE
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES FOR SOME LAKE RESPONSE FOR SOME SHOWERS TO
IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE DACKS.

TEMPERATURES WILL INITIALLY BE QUITE WARM-HOT ON MONDAY IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH MAINLY 80S AND PERHAPS TOUCHING 90F
IN A FEW SPOTS BEFORE THE CLOUDS/STORMS ARRIVE. THEN TEMPERATURES
SLIPPING BACK TO NEAR TO A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY AUGUST THE
REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE TROUGH WILL OCCUPY THE NORTHEAST CONUS DURING THIS PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE
GREAT LAKES...BRINGING A TOUCH OF THE SEASON TO COME. IT WILL
BE A BIT COOLER AND LESS HUMID WITH HIGHS 75-80 IN THE VALLEYS...
LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER TERRAIN.

DUE TO CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD AIR ALOFT...THERE COULD BE A FEW
MAINLY AFTERNOON INSTABILITY SHOWERS...WELL NORTH OF I-90. OTHERWISE
IT WILL BE A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE AND PERHAPS A SPRINKLE EVEN
FURTHER SOUTH.

IT WILL BE PLEASANTLY COOL WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE 50S...WITH SOME MID OR UPPER 40S IN THE COOLEST MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

ON THURSDAY....ALL THE MODELS NOW INDICATE A SIGNIFICANT WAVE
WILL DEVELOP INTO A LOW PRESSURE AREA WELL TO THE SOUTH OF OUR
REGION. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION
MUCH LIKE A WINTER STORM. OF COURSE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALL
RAIN...AND RIGHT NOW THE RAIN SHIELD COULD REACH NORTH TO ABOUT
I-90 OR EVEN A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH BY EARLY FRIDAY. THURSDAY
LOOKS AS IF CLOUD INCREASE AND A FEW SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP SOUTH
OF ALBANY BY LATE IN THE DAY. WE INCREASE POPS TO 30 FOR NOW
EVERYWHERE BY FRIDAY AND CALL IT SHOWERS (ALTHOUGH THERE IS AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE IT COULD BE AN ALL DAY RAIN).

WITH CLOUDS AND CHANCE OF SHOWERS...HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 70S
BOTH DAYS...AND IF THE SITUATION LOOKS EVEN WETTER...WE COULD BE
TALKING ABOUT HIGHS IN THE 60S FOR FRIDAY. FOR NOW...KEPT IT
CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGY AND GIVEN IT IS NOT A SLAM DUNK THAT RAIN
WILL OVERSPREAD OUR REGION.

LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT ON SATURDAY...BUT A LINGERING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH COULD KEEP OUR WEATHER A LITTLE UNSETTLED (DUE TO RESIDUAL
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC FLOW). FOR NOW...WE JUST KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCES IN FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
AVERAGE A BIT BELOW NORMAL...UPPER 60S NORTHWEST TO UPPER 70S
SOUTHEAST WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. WE ARE IN SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY...MAINLY LATER AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FOR NOW...WE CONTINUE WITH VFR OVERNIGHT BUT THERE IS A SLIGHT
POSSIBILITY OF SOME FOG AT KGFL AND KPSF. FOR NOW...THE THREAT WAS
LOW ENOUGH TO NOT TO INCLUDE.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON ON
MONDAY. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BREEZE WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN AHEAD
OF AN ONCOMING STRONG COLD FRONT. LATER DURING THE AFTERNOON WE
EXPECT CONVECTION TO FIRE UP AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. NOT EXACTLY
SURE HOW ORGANIZED IT WILL BE. SINCE IT LOOKS TO BE A LATE
SHOW...FOR NOW WE JUST CARRIED VCSH AT ALL THE TAF
SITES...STARTING AT 18Z AT KGFL TO 21Z KPOU. THIS IS LIKELY THE
EARLIEST TIME ANY REAL CONVECTION COULD IMPACT THE TAFS.
CONVECTION REALLY MIGHT HOLD OFF UNTIL CLOSER TO 00Z. WE WILL TRY
TO PINPOINT THE TIMING OF SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION WITH THE NEXT
ISSUANCE OF TAFS IF WE CAN. AGAIN...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE DAY.

STAY TUNED.



OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE NIGHT-THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND MOST OF EARLY
MONDAY MORNING BEFORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ON MONDAY
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. TONIGHTS RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL REBOUND FROM THE 25 TO 45 PERCENT THIS EVENING TO 75
AND 95 PERCENT OVERNIGHT.

IT WILL BE VERY WARM AND MORE HUMID MONDAY WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES BETWEEN 45 AND 65 PERCENT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. THE STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS RISE UP TO
AROUND 1.5 INCHES AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD
LEAD TO SOME MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS.
ALSO SOME WITHIN BANK RIVER RISES WOULD BE EXPECTED.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES AND PASSES OVER THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KENX DOPPLER RADAR MAINTENANCE IS COMPLETE AND HAVE RETURNED TO
FULL OPERATIONAL MODE. THANK YOU FOR YOUR PATIENCE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM
EQUIPMENT...




000
FXUS61 KALY 030216
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1015 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT AND MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL
BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE ALONG
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS
ARRIVE FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1015 PM EDT...STILL A NICE SUMMER EVENING. THE SKY LOCALLY WAS
CLEAR ENOUGH TO SEE THE PASSAGE OF THE ISS GO OVERHEAD AROUND 9:16
PM.

TEMPERATURES WERE SLIPPING INTO THE 70S WHERE A LIGHT SOUTHERLY
BREEZE LINGERED (LIKE ALBANY) BUT DOWN INTO THE 60S WHERE THE WIND
HAD GONE COMPLETELY CALM (NORTH ADAMS). DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE 50S.

OVERALL...OVERNIGHTS LOOK REASONABLE AND LEFT THEM ALONE. ADJUSTED
THE HOURLY GRIDS.

FURTHER UPSTREAM...A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUED ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN INTO ONTARIO.
THIS LIKELY A SIGNAL FOR OUR UPCOMING
WEATHER DURING MONDAY.

HOWEVER...FOR OVERNIGHT...IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND
TRANQUIL. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL...BUT NOT AS LOW AS LAST NIGHT.
LOOK FOR LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S (IN THE
CAPITAL REGION). DEWPOINTS LOOK TO CREEP UP CLOSER TO 60 WITH
TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

SPC CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT THE REGION WITHIN THE SLIGHT RISK /15%/
WITH THE 18Z UPDATE AND NCEP MODEL SUITE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST AN
ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
EVENING. IMPRESSIVE THERMAL WARM ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT AS H850 TEMPS RISE CLOSE TO 20C MONDAY MORNING WITH FILTERED
SUNSHINE DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM DIMINISHING CONVECTION
UPSTREAM. STRONG SURFACE HEATING WELL INTO THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS
CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING
INSTABILITY. SBCAPES CLIMB TO BETWEEN 1-2K J/KG...30-40KTS 0-6KM
SHEAR AND ASSOCIATED HODOGRAPHS REVEALING CYCLONIC CURVATURE
WITH THE 0-1KM...SHOWALTERS DROPPING BELOW 0C /MAINLY ACROSS
E-NY/...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6.5-7.5 C/KM AND PWATS CLIMBING
TO AN AVERAGE VALUE OF 1.50 INCHES...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
PER COORDINATION...WE WILL PLACE SEVERE WORDING INTO THE
GRIDS/FORECAST FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. INITIAL
CONVECTIVE MODE WILL SCT-BKN CELLULAR STRUCTURES /PERHAPS
SUPERCELLULAR/ BEFORE EVOLVING INTO A SCT-BKN LINE OF CONVECTION
AS LENGTHENING HODOGRAPHS WILL FAVOR SOME LONG-LIVED CELLS AND/OR BOWS
CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL /FROM SPC SWODY2/.

SINCE THIS WILL LIKELY BE A LATE EVENT...QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH
WILL SURVIVE ONCE IT REACHES PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND
ESPECIALLY INTO LITCHFIELD COUNTY. SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION
EXPERIMENTAL REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS SUGGEST A WEAKENING TREND FOR
THESE AREAS...HOWEVER...WE WILL CONTINUE TO FINE TUNE THE
SPECIFICS WITH OVERNIGHT UPDATES.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA...A COOLER AND RATHER UNSETTLED CYCLONIC
FLOW REGIME EVOLVES WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE
INTO TUESDAY. IN FACT...IF ENOUGH SURFACE HEATING WERE TO
COMMENCE...ADDITIONAL HAIL THREAT MAY DEVELOP AS WET BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS FALL TO AROUND OR BELOW 10K AGL. H850 TEMPS FALL BACK TO
BETWEEN 10-15C WITH H500 TEMPS AVERAGING AROUND -15C.

CONDITIONS SHOULD QUIET DOWN TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OFF LAKE ONTARIO AS THOSE H850 TEMPS CONTINUE TO FALL BACK INTO
THE POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS...HOWEVER...THIS TOO WILL INCREASE THE
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES FOR SOME LAKE RESPONSE FOR SOME SHOWERS TO
IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE DACKS.

TEMPERATURES WILL INITIALLY BE QUITE WARM-HOT ON MONDAY IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH MAINLY 80S AND PERHAPS TOUCHING 90F
IN A FEW SPOTS BEFORE THE CLOUDS/STORMS ARRIVE. THEN TEMPERATURES
SLIPPING BACK TO NEAR TO A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY AUGUST THE
REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE TROUGH WILL OCCUPY THE NORTHEAST CONUS DURING THIS PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE
GREAT LAKES...BRINGING A TOUCH OF THE SEASON TO COME. IT WILL
BE A BIT COOLER AND LESS HUMID WITH HIGHS 75-80 IN THE VALLEYS...
LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER TERRAIN.

DUE TO CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD AIR ALOFT...THERE COULD BE A FEW
MAINLY AFTERNOON INSTABILITY SHOWERS...WELL NORTH OF I-90. OTHERWISE
IT WILL BE A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE AND PERHAPS A SPRINKLE EVEN
FURTHER SOUTH.

IT WILL BE PLEASANTLY COOL WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE 50S...WITH SOME MID OR UPPER 40S IN THE COOLEST MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

ON THURSDAY....ALL THE MODELS NOW INDICATE A SIGNIFICANT WAVE
WILL DEVELOP INTO A LOW PRESSURE AREA WELL TO THE SOUTH OF OUR
REGION. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION
MUCH LIKE A WINTER STORM. OF COURSE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALL
RAIN...AND RIGHT NOW THE RAIN SHIELD COULD REACH NORTH TO ABOUT
I-90 OR EVEN A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH BY EARLY FRIDAY. THURSDAY
LOOKS AS IF CLOUD INCREASE AND A FEW SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP SOUTH
OF ALBANY BY LATE IN THE DAY. WE INCREASE POPS TO 30 FOR NOW
EVERYWHERE BY FRIDAY AND CALL IT SHOWERS (ALTHOUGH THERE IS AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE IT COULD BE AN ALL DAY RAIN).

WITH CLOUDS AND CHANCE OF SHOWERS...HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 70S
BOTH DAYS...AND IF THE SITUATION LOOKS EVEN WETTER...WE COULD BE
TALKING ABOUT HIGHS IN THE 60S FOR FRIDAY. FOR NOW...KEPT IT
CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGY AND GIVEN IT IS NOT A SLAM DUNK THAT RAIN
WILL OVERSPREAD OUR REGION.

LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT ON SATURDAY...BUT A LINGERING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH COULD KEEP OUR WEATHER A LITTLE UNSETTLED (DUE TO RESIDUAL
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC FLOW). FOR NOW...WE JUST KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCES IN FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
AVERAGE A BIT BELOW NORMAL...UPPER 60S NORTHWEST TO UPPER 70S
SOUTHEAST WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. WE ARE IN SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY...MAINLY LATER AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FOR NOW...WE CONTINUE WITH VFR OVERNIGHT BUT THERE IS A SLIGHT
POSSIBILITY OF SOME FOG AT KGFL AND KPSF. FOR NOW...THE THREAT WAS
LOW ENOUGH TO NOT TO INCLUDE.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON ON
MONDAY. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BREEZE WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN AHEAD
OF AN ONCOMING STRONG COLD FRONT. LATER DURING THE AFTERNOON WE
EXPECT CONVECTION TO FIRE UP AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. NOT EXACTLY
SURE HOW ORGANIZED IT WILL BE. SINCE IT LOOKS TO BE A LATE
SHOW...FOR NOW WE JUST CARRIED VCSH AT ALL THE TAF
SITES...STARTING AT 18Z AT KGFL TO 21Z KPOU. THIS IS LIKELY THE
EARLIEST TIME ANY REAL CONVECTION COULD IMPACT THE TAFS.
CONVECTION REALLY MIGHT HOLD OFF UNTIL CLOSER TO 00Z. WE WILL TRY
TO PINPOINT THE TIMING OF SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION WITH THE NEXT
ISSUANCE OF TAFS IF WE CAN. AGAIN...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE DAY.

STAY TUNED.



OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE NIGHT-THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND MOST OF EARLY
MONDAY MORNING BEFORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ON MONDAY
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. TONIGHTS RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL REBOUND FROM THE 25 TO 45 PERCENT THIS EVENING TO 75
AND 95 PERCENT OVERNIGHT.

IT WILL BE VERY WARM AND MORE HUMID MONDAY WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES BETWEEN 45 AND 65 PERCENT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. THE STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS RISE UP TO
AROUND 1.5 INCHES AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD
LEAD TO SOME MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS.
ALSO SOME WITHIN BANK RIVER RISES WOULD BE EXPECTED.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES AND PASSES OVER THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KENX DOPPLER RADAR MAINTENANCE IS COMPLETE AND HAVE RETURNED TO
FULL OPERATIONAL MODE. THANK YOU FOR YOUR PATIENCE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM
EQUIPMENT...



000
FXUS61 KOKX 030200
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1000 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA ON TUESDAY...AND THEN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA
ON WEDNESDAY. SEVERAL AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND JET DIVES FROM CANADA TOWARD THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT...AMPLIFYING THE
TROUGH WITH RESULTANT LOWERING OF HEIGHTS UPSTREAM.

FOR OUR AREA...WARM AIR ADVECTION IS UNDERWAY. SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES AND HUMIDITY LEVELS SLOWLY RISE. PERHAPS A
FEW HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE WEST...BUT MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED OVERALL.

AS SUCH...PATCHY FOG IS FORECAST FOR LATER TONIGHT. AS PREV SHIFT
MENTIONED...SOME STRATUS IS POSSIBLE...BUT CURRENT THINKING IS FOG
DEVELOPMENT THE MORE LIKELY RESULT.

TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE 60S AND 70S PER MOS. BLEND USED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
PERSISTENT TROUGH/CLOSED LOW WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS EAST THROUGH
THIS TIME FRAME. SFC COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...MAKING
SLOW PROGRESS TOWARD THE AREA LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

A DRY START TO THE DAY IS FORECAST...WITH INCREASINGLY HUMID
CONDITIONS.

UNDER A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...AND WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
UPPER TROUGH AND SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY...TEMPS WILL WARM WELL INTO
THE 80S...AND WILL APPROACH OR EXCEED 90 AWAY FROM THE SOUTH
COASTS. BLENDED MET/MAV AND ECS.

12Z MODEL SUITE CONTINUES TO SHOW SLOW MOVEMENT TO THE FRONT AND
UPPER LEVEL LIFT AND THUS SLOW PROGRESSION AND DEVELOPMENT OF ANY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INTO OUR AREA. MUCH OF THE AREA REMAINS DRY
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. BETTER CHANCE MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO
APPROACHING MID LEVEL LIFT AS IT PIVOTS AROUND THE TROUGH...AND AS
THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. NAM LOOKS TO BE
SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH COLD FRONTAL PROGRESSION EAST. COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN SCATTERED AT BEST.

AS FOR STORM STRENGTH...IF ANY STORMS MAKE INTO OUR NW ZONES LATE IN
THE DAY...AMPLE WIND SHEAR ALONG WITH MARGINAL TO MODERATE
INSTABILITY COULD HELP SUSTAIN A FEW STRONGER STORMS. THIS IS TRUE
INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS WELL.

ANOTHER WARM NIGHT IS ANTICIPATED AS CLOUDS INCREASE AND S/SW DEEP
FLOW PERSISTS.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE
OCEAN BEACHES MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A RIP CURRENT
STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.
MEANWHILE...A DEEP CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL CANADA MOVES INTO
EASTERN CANADA. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL
LINGER OVER THE NORTHEAST FOR THE MIDDLE TO THE END OF THE NEW
WEEK. GENERALLY COOL AND UNSETTLED CONDS ON TAP FOR THIS PERIOD.

SHOWERS TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY MORNING AS THE COLD
FRONT WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION. CONDS DRY OUT FROM LATE
MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...AND THEN AN UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL
ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST. THIS WILL TOUCH OFF SOME SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE
REGION IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. SINCE IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE
COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE LOCAL
AREA...CAN EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90. SFC
DEWPOINTS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW 60S ACROSS WESTERN ZONES DURING
THE DAY...BUT DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S FOR EASTERN
ZONES. AS A RESULT...THE HEAT INDEX WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 90
THROUGHOUT.

SFC HIGH PRES THEN PASSES THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. NO
PRECIP EXPECTED...AND A COOLER AND DRYER AIRMASS SPREADS INTO THE
REGION WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S.
HIGH PRES MOVES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHEAST...SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP AT THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH AND WILL PASS THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST DURING
THIS TIME. MODELS HAVE HAD A HARD TIME PICKING UP ON THE TRACK OF
EACH LOW AND HAVE RESULTED IN DIFFERENT TRACKS WITH EACH RUN...BUT
IT IS STILL TOO FAR OUT IN TIME TO SAY WHAT WILL HAPPEN. WILL
CARRY CHANCE POPS DURING THIS TIME...AS AT LEAST 2 DIFFERENT AREAS
OF LOW PRES WILL TRACK THROUGH THE REGION WITH CONDS DRYING OUT BY
SUNDAY.

TEMPS WILL RUN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS TIME WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING LATE MONDAY.

MAINLY VFR TONIGHT...WITH EXCEPTION OF KGON WHICH SHOULD
FLUCTUATE BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR OVERNIGHT ON THIS FIRST NIGHT OF
ONSHORE FLOW.

LIGHT S/SW FLOW TONIGHT...PICKS UP MON MORNING AND BECOME GUSTY
IN THE AFTERNOON. STRONG SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED AT COASTAL
TERMINALS. THERE IS A LOW PROB FOR SE SEABREEZE TO WORK INTO
KEWR/KTEB.

MAINLY VFR ON MONDAY...WITH CHANCE OF TSTM LATE AT KSWF.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUE THROUGH FRI...
.MON NIGHT-TUE...CHANCE OF TSTMS. COLD FROPA WITH S WINDS
SHIFTING TO W. PATCHY FOG ACROSS OUTLYING TERMINALS MON NIGHT.
.WED...VFR. W FLOW.
.THU-FRI...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES EAST.
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS MONDAY...MOVING CLOSE TO THE
WATERS MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT INCREASE MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE LIGHTENING WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE FRONT.

OCEAN SEAS BUILD DUE TO THE INCREASE IN THESE WINDS. AFTER COLLAB
WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL ISSUE SCA BEGINNING 20Z MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. OCCASIONAL 25 KT GUSTS
POSSIBLE FOR NY HARBOR...WESTERN SOUTH SHORE BAYS AND WESTERN LI
SOUND LATE MONDAY AFT INTO MONDAY EVENING.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BELOW SCA LEVELS ON
TUESDAY...AND THEN WEAK HIGH PRES PASSES THROUGH THE WATERS ON
WEDNESDAY. FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...SEVERAL AREAS OF LOW PRES MAY
PASS ACROSS THE WATERS...RESULTING IN OCNL SCA CONDS FOR AT LEAST
THE OCEAN WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN TSTMS LATE MONDAY/MONDAY
NIGHT AND AGAIN TUE AFTN/EVE E OF NYC...WHICH COULD LEAD TO MINOR
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ075-080-081-178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPS/PW
NEAR TERM...MPS/PW
SHORT TERM...MPS/PW
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...MPS/PW
HYDROLOGY...MPS/PW



000
FXUS61 KOKX 030200
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1000 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA ON TUESDAY...AND THEN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA
ON WEDNESDAY. SEVERAL AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND JET DIVES FROM CANADA TOWARD THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT...AMPLIFYING THE
TROUGH WITH RESULTANT LOWERING OF HEIGHTS UPSTREAM.

FOR OUR AREA...WARM AIR ADVECTION IS UNDERWAY. SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES AND HUMIDITY LEVELS SLOWLY RISE. PERHAPS A
FEW HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE WEST...BUT MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED OVERALL.

AS SUCH...PATCHY FOG IS FORECAST FOR LATER TONIGHT. AS PREV SHIFT
MENTIONED...SOME STRATUS IS POSSIBLE...BUT CURRENT THINKING IS FOG
DEVELOPMENT THE MORE LIKELY RESULT.

TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE 60S AND 70S PER MOS. BLEND USED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
PERSISTENT TROUGH/CLOSED LOW WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS EAST THROUGH
THIS TIME FRAME. SFC COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...MAKING
SLOW PROGRESS TOWARD THE AREA LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

A DRY START TO THE DAY IS FORECAST...WITH INCREASINGLY HUMID
CONDITIONS.

UNDER A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...AND WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
UPPER TROUGH AND SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY...TEMPS WILL WARM WELL INTO
THE 80S...AND WILL APPROACH OR EXCEED 90 AWAY FROM THE SOUTH
COASTS. BLENDED MET/MAV AND ECS.

12Z MODEL SUITE CONTINUES TO SHOW SLOW MOVEMENT TO THE FRONT AND
UPPER LEVEL LIFT AND THUS SLOW PROGRESSION AND DEVELOPMENT OF ANY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INTO OUR AREA. MUCH OF THE AREA REMAINS DRY
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. BETTER CHANCE MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO
APPROACHING MID LEVEL LIFT AS IT PI