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000
FXUS61 KBOX 011227
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
727 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT THE REGION VERY LATER TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY EVENING WITH HEAVY SNOW FOR MANY LOCATIONS. BITTERLY
COLD WIND CHILLS FOLLOW LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
MODERATING TEMPS WEDNESDAY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME LIGHT SNOW
THEN VERY COLD CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
A COASTAL STORM WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE
WEEK BUT WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
715 AM UPDATE...
NOTING WINDS SLACKENING ACROSS THE INTERIOR OVER THE LAST FEW
HOURS AS THEY HAVE BACKED TO W-SW. LOOKS LIKE THE ARCTIC FRONT
LYING ACROSS N VT/N CENTRAL NH INTO CENTRAL ME AT 12Z AS WINDS N
OF IT HAVE SHIFTED TO NW. ALSO NOTING A THIN BAND OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS THAT HAS DEVELOPED FROM NEAR KALB-KPSF-KBDL MOVING SE
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. AREA OF LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAS ALSO
MOVED INTO W MA/W CT AS WELL WITH THE SNOW SHOWERS...BUT LEADING
EDGE OF MAIN AREA OF CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW ACROSS E
PA/CENTRAL NJ.

WHERE WINDS HAVE DROPPED TO CALM NOTING TEMPS BELOW ZERO...AS LOW
AS -9 AT KORE AND -4 AT KOWD...THOUGH MILDER WHERE THE CLOUDS HAVE
MOVED IN AS WELL AS LIGHT SW WIND FLOW MAINLY ACROSS THE CT
VALLEY.

HAVE UPDATED NEAR TERM FORECAST TO BRING CONDITIONS CURRENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ARCTIC FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS SNE THIS AFTERNOON AND
REACHING THE SOUTH COAST TOWARD EVENING. MODELS INDICATE SOME LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TODAY WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME LOWER CLOUDS...
OTHERWISE SUNSHINE FOR MOST AREAS WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING
MID/HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE DAY. MAX TEMPS WILL REACH 25 TO 30
DEGREES BUT FALL INTO THE TEENS TOWARD EVENING IN FAR N ZONES AS
ARCTIC AIR DRAINS SOUTH. GUSTY WINDS ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS WILL
DIMINISH...OTHERWISE GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAJOR WINTER STORM VERY LATE TONIGHT INTO MON EVENING
* HEAVY SNOWFALL EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE REGION
* BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY IS SNOWFALL AMTS ACROSS RI AND SE MA DUE TO
  PTYPE ISSUES

OVERVIEW...

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A PROGRESSIVE BUT RATHER POTENT
MID LEVEL TROF WHICH MOVES EAST INTO SNE MON AND BECOMES
NEGATIVELY TILTED. THE SFC LOW TRACKS EAST FROM THE OH VALLEY AND
APPEARS TO JUMP/REDEVELOP ALONG THE MID ATLC COAST...TRACKING NEAR
OR JUST S OF LONG ISLAND TO ACK DURING MONDAY. WITH ARCTIC HIGH
IN PLACE TO THE NORTH...PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL COLD AIR IN PLACE BUT
WARMING ALOFT WILL MAKE FOR A TRICKY SNOWFALL FORECAST NEAR THE S
COAST. GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON QPF WITH 0.75-1.00" WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS ACROSS SE NEW ENG...BUT THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES WITH
THE THERMAL PROFILE. NAM IS THE COLDEST BUT LIKELY A RESULT OF IT
BEING FASTER WITH THE SFC LOW. GFS HAS TRENDED A BIT COLDER WHILE
ECMWF A BIT WARMER AND ONLY MINOR DIFFERENCES EXIST ALOFT. GIVEN
STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT ALL MODELS SHOW WARMING IN THE 850-700 MB
LAYER MOVING NORTH ALONG THE SNE COAST DURING MON. THE UNCERTAINTY
FOR THE SNOWFALL FORECAST IS DETERMINING HOW FAR N THE MIX LINE
GETS.

SYSTEM REMAINS AN OPEN WAVE AT 700 MB AS IT CROSSES CENTRAL NEW
ENG LATE MON SO NOT LOOKING AT TYPICAL BANDING SIGNAL ASSOCD WITH
STRONG MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. THIS WILL BE A CLASSIC STRONG
OVERRUNNING EVENT AS MILDER AIR AND MOISTURE OVERRUNS VERY STRONG
LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS SNE WITH ARCTIC TO THE NORTH.

1) TIMING AND PTYPE

SNOW DEVELOPS IN THE CT VALLEY BY MIDNIGHT THEN QUICKLY
OVERSPREADS THE REST OF SNE THROUGH DAYBREAK. THE SNOW WILL
QUICKLY BECOME HEAVY LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AND WILL
HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE MORNING COMMUTE. GOOD SNOW
GROWTH AROUND 12Z AND STRONG MID LEVEL OMEGA WILL RESULT IN A
GOOD FRONT END THUMP WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR
ACROSS THE REGION FOR SEVERAL HOURS IN THE MORNING.

THE UNCERTAINTY INCREASES CLOSER TO THE S COAST MID/LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON AS WARMER AIR ALOFT SURGES NORTHWARD. WE
BLENDED THE MODELS WHICH SUGGEST A MIX OR CHANGE TO SLEET BRIEFLY
GETTING TO MA/N RI BORDER BY MIDDAY BEFORE COLLAPSING SE DURING
THE AFTERNOON. FURTHER S...DEEPER WARM LAYER WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND POSSIBLY SOME
RAIN AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS. A CHANGE TO PLAIN RAIN IS MOST
LIKELY OVER THE ISLANDS. ANY RAIN OR MIXED PRECIP WILL CHANGE BACK
TO SNOW MID/LATE AFTERNOON BUT NOT UNTIL EVENING FOR THE
OUTER/CAPE ISLANDS.

THIS IS STILL A VERY TRICKY PTYPE FORECAST DUE TO THE STRONG
LOW/MID LEVEL TEMP GRADIENT SO PTYPE WILL BE VERY SENSITIVE TO
JUST A MINOR SHIFT IN THE SFC AND 850 MB LOW TRACK.

SNOWFALL IN THE AFTERNOON WILL NOT BE AS HEAVY AS THE MORNING AS
BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT WEAKENS AND SNOW GROWTH NOT QUITE AS
FAVORABLE...BUT STILL SOME DECENT SNOWFALL ESPECIALLY IN THE
NORTH.

2) SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS AND HEADLINES

WE HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN HEAVY SNOWFALL FOR MUCH OF THE REGION
WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW LIKELY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE
WHERE DEFINITELY NO MIXING ISSUES. EXPECT SNOW ACCUM AROUND A
FOOT FOR THIS REGION...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS AROUND 6 TO 10 INCHES
FURTHER S ACROSS RI AND SE MA DUE TO MIXING ISSUES. WE HAVE ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE FOR UP TO 6 INCHES NEAR THE S COAST TO UPGRADE TO A
WARNING. IN ADDITION THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR UP TO A TENTH OF AN
INCH OF ICE ACCRETION NEAR THE COAST. AMOUNTS MAY FALL SHORT OF 6
INCHES ON CAPE COD...BUT WE INCLUDED THEM IN THE WARNING DUE TO
COMBINATION OF SNOW AND SOME ICE.

FOR THE ISLANDS...WE WILL GO WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
ACCUM 2 TO 5 INCHES...LEAST ON NANTUCKET.

3) STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW

NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH EXPECTED ALONG THE EASTERN
MASS COAST MONDAY AS STORM INTENSIFIES AND PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES. THIS WILL RESULT IN POOR VISIBILITY ALONG WITH BLOWING
AND DRIFTING SNOW. ITS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW LOCATIONS ALONG THE
COAST COULD SEE NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FOR A VERY SHORT
TIME...BUT STORM DOESN/T SEEM TO WARRANT THOSE TYPE OF HEADLINES.

4) TEMPS

A VERY STRONG COASTAL FRONT WILL SET UP DURING MONDAY WITH TEMPS
IN THE TEENS NORTH OF I-84 TO I-90 CORRIDOR AND WEST OF I-495
WITH EVEN SOME SINGLE NUMBERS FAR N/NW MA...WHILE TEMPS WILL REACH
THE LOWER TO MID 30S SE MA. A FLASH FREEZE IS LIKELY ACROSS SE
COASTAL MA AND CAPE/ISLANDS IN THE EVENING AS THE COASTAL FRONT
MOVES THROUGH AND TEMPS PLUMMET.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK INTO
  THE WEEKEND
* MAY SEE A BRIEF BREAK OF THE COLD TEMPS AROUND MID WEEK AS HIGH
  PRES MOVES S OF THE REGION
* CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WED
  NIGHT/THU WITH A COLD FRONT LATE THU

OVERVIEW...

00Z MODEL SUITE AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE WITH SIMILAR UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE FOR OVER A
WEEK AT LEAST. NOTING H5 RIDGE BUILDING ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST
WHILE PERSISTENT LONG WAVE TROUGHING REMAINS ACROSS THE EAST WITH
VORTEX CENTERED AROUND HUDSON BAY EARLY THIS WEEK. DOES LOOK LIKE
THIS WILL TEND TO FLATTEN OUT AROUND MID WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE WORKS OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA ALONG WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE AN
CLIPPER TYPE SURFACE LOW. AS THIS SYSTEM WORKS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND
AROUND WED NIGHT OR THU...DO NOTE SOME MODEL SPREAD IN DIGGING THE
ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE. ALSO...AS THE CLIPPER HEADS TOWARD THE
MARITIMES LATE THIS WEEK IT WILL DEEPEN...WHICH MAY SLOW THE
PASSING COLD FRONT DOWN OFFSHORE AS AN OCEAN LOW APPEARS TO FORM
DOWN THE COAST. SOME AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE ON THE 00Z
CANADIAN GGEM AND ECMWF...BUT IT DOES LOOK TO REMAIN OFFSHORE AT
THIS POINT.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR THIS MORNING/S FORECAST...
WHICH SHOWED GOOD CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

DETAILS...

MONDAY NIGHT...LEFTOVER SNOW WILL END ACROSS THE CT VALLEY EARLY
MON NIGHT...THEN BACK EDGE WILL SHIFT E OVERNIGHT. SOME LIGHT
PRECIP MAY LINGER UNTIL DAYBREAK ACROSS E COASTAL AREAS. VERY COLD
AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WILL LIKELY NEED WIND CHILL
HEADLINES ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

OVERNIGHT LOWS MAY NOT BE QUITE AS COLD AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST
DUE TO LINGERING CLOUDS...BUT WILL STILL SEE SOME LOCATIONS DROP
BELOW ZERO AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...GUSTY NW WINDS WILL LINGER THROUGH AROUND
MIDDAY OR SO ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE STRONG LOW PRES OVER THE
GULF OF ST LAWRENCE. NE-SW ORIENTED HIGH PRES WILL BUILD E DURING
THE DAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE TEENS FOR
MOST AREAS...EXCEPT 20-25 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S COAST...CAPE COD
AND THE ISLANDS.

HIGH PRES RIDGE CRESTS ACROSS THE REGION TUE NIGHT AS LIGHT WINDS
ACTUALLY BACK TO SW. WITH A NEW AND DEEP SNOWPACK THOUGH...LOWS
WILL STILL FALL BACK TO THE SINGLE DIGITS EXCEPT THE TEENS ALONG
THE S COAST. MAY START TO SEE SOME CLOUDS INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT
ACROSS WESTERN AREAS.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...CLIPPER LOW MOVES QUICKLY SE TOWARD THE
REGION. WITH LIGHT SW FLOW IN PLACE...TEMPS MAY ACTUALLY REBOUND
TO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ON WED. HOWEVER...LEADING EDGE OF
PRECIP MAY BRING SCT SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS N AND W MA DURING
THE DAY INTO WED NIGHT AS THE LOW PASSES TO THE N. CURRENT TIMING
OF TRAILING COLD FRONT SUGGESTS PASSAGE DURING THU WITH BEST SHOT
FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. NOT MUCH QPF WITH THIS FEATURE AT THIS
POINT. MAY SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS DURING THU AS ANOTHER
WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT. N WINDS MAY BECOME BLUSTERY
LATE THU/THU NIGHT ALONG THE COAST AS COLDER AIR RETURNS.

FRIDAY...LOOKS TO BE A GENERALLY DRY BUT COLD DAY. MIGHT SEE SOME
LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM.../THROUGH MONDAY/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. NOTING MVFR CIGS ACROSS MID
AND LOWER CT VALLEY WITH PATCHY -SHSN AT 11Z...WHICH SHOULD
IMPROVE BY LATE MORNING. MAY SEE PATCHY MVFR CIGS ACROSS N CT/RI
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.

VFR THIS EVENING DETERIORATES TO IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS IN MODERATE
TO HEAVY SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT TO DAYBREAK FROM WEST TO EAST.
IFR/LIFR IN MOD/HEAVY SNOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY MON. PTYPE
MAY TRANSITION TO A PERIOD OF SLEET/FREEZING RAIN AROUND MIDDAY
FROM PVD-TAN-PYM SOUTH AND CHANGING TO RAIN OVER THE OUTER
CAPE/ISLANDS. NE WIND GUSTS TO 30-35 KT DEVELOPING ACROSS E
COASTAL MA MONDAY...WITH 25 KT ACROSS RI AND REMAINDER OF E MA.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING OF
IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING OF
IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER IN TIMING.
EXPECT MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS EARLY...THEN SHOULD IMPROVE FROM W-E
DURING THE NIGHT AS PRECIP EXITS. LOWER CONDITIONS MAY LINGER
ACROSS ALONG E COAST THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT. EXPECT N-NW WINDS
GUSTING TO 25-35 KT...HIGHEST ALONG THE COAST.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR ON TUESDAY. NW WIND
GUSTS TO 25-30 KT EARLY ALONG THE COAST.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. COULD SEE SOME MVFR CIGS IN SCT
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS N CENTRAL AND W MA.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. MAY SEE LOCAL MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN SCT SNOW SHOWERS. NW WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT
DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY BUT
EXPECT SCA WAVES TO REMAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT FREEZING
SPRAY WILL PERSIST.

TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS/SEAS QUICKLY RAMP UP DURING MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
INTENSIFIES NEAR THE SOUTH COAST. GALE WATCHES CONTINUE. THE MAIN
FOCUS FOR GUSTS TO 40 KT MONDAY WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN MA COASTAL
WATERS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF CAPE COD...WITH LIGHTER WINDS OVER
THE SOUTH COASTAL WATER. SEAS BUILD TO 15+ FEET ACROSS OUR EASTERN
WATERS BY LATE MON AFTERNOON/EVENING.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT...EXPECT GALE FORCE NW WIND GUSTS. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY WATCH CONTINUES. SEAS BUILD UP TO 9-14 FT ON THE OUTER
WATERS.

TUESDAY...NW GALES LIKELY ALONG WITH FREEZING SPRAY...POSSIBLY
MODERATE TO HEAVY. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH GOOD VSBY EXCEPT
FAR OFFSHORE WHERE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE COMMON.

WEDNESDAY...WINDS EASE AND BECOME SOUTHWEST AS CLIPPER LOW ENTERS
THE GREAT LAKES AND NY STATE. NOT AS COLD SO FREEZING SPRAY
UNLIKELY. VSBYS MAY BRIEFLY LOWER IN A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW.

THURSDAY...COLD FRONT PASSES WITH STRONG SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS.
CHANCE OF LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY LATE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
*** LOW RISK FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING MON NIGHT EASTERN MA
 COASTLINE ***

THE FIRST TIDE CYCLE MONDAY MORNING SHOULD NOT POSE ANY RISKS AS
WINDS WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR A LONG ENOUGH PERIOD OF TIME
TO PRODUCE THE WAVE ACTION OR SURGE NECESSARY FOR COASTAL
FLOODING. A SURGE OF 1 FOOT IS POSSIBLE BUT SEAS WILL BE WELL
UNDER 10 FT.

AS FOR THE MONDAY EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE...ASTRO TIDES ARE ABOUT
1 FT LOWER BUT WAVES WILL BE BUILDING TO 15 TO 20 FT. WE EXPECT
ABOUT A 1.5 TO 2.5 FT STORM SURGE BUT THIS MAY NOT OVERLAP THE
EVENING HIGH TIDE AND MAY OCCUR CLOSER TO LOW TIDE WITH SURGE
VALUES DECREASING TOWARD THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE AS WINDS TURN N.
IF THIS TIMING PLAYS OUT...THE PROBABILITY FOR ANY COASTAL
FLOODING WILL BE LOW. HOWEVER...WE ARE TALKING ABOUT ONLY 6 HOURS
AND IF THE MAX SURGE IS DELAYED AND OVERLAPS THE HIGH TIDE...THERE
WILL BE A HIGHER RISK OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WITH A LOW RISK OF
ISOLD MODERATE FLOODING...MAINLY FROM CAPE COD TO CAPE ANN WITH
PERHAPS THE HIGHEST RISK FROM HULL/COHASSET/SCITUATE/
MARSHFIELD/PLYMOUTH TO SANDWICH HARBOR. AGAIN...THIS WILL DEPEND
OM THE TIMING OF THE MAX SURGE OCCURRING CLOSE TO HIGH TIDE WHICH
DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY AT THIS TIME.

WINDS...SEAS AND STORM SURGE WILL BE CONSIDERABLY LESS THAN THE
PREVIOUS COASTAL STORM BUT THERE COULD STILL BE SOME IMPACT
ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE COMMUNITIES SUCH AS MARSHFIELD MA THAT WERE
HIT HARD EARLIER THIS WEEK WHERE COASTAL STRUCTURES SUCH AS
SEAWALLS WERE DAMAGED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WITH EXTREMELY COLD AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW MONDAY
NIGHT...TEMPERATURES MAY FALL BACK CLOSE TO OR SURPASSING RECORD
LEVELS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

HERE ARE THE RECORD LOWS FOR TUESDAY 2/3...

BOSTON         -5 SET IN 1881
PROVIDENCE     -6 SET IN 1961
WORCESTER      -7 SET IN 1931, 1955 AND 1971
WINDSOR LOCKS  -3 SET IN 1955
BLUE HILL OBS  -7 SET IN 1955

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR MAZ023-024.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR MAZ002>022-026.
RI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR RIZ008.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR RIZ001>007.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ231>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ231-232-251.
     HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR ANZ231>235-237-250-251-254>256.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ231-
     232-250-251-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ233>235-237.
     GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ230-236.
     GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ250-251-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ250-
     254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/EVT
NEAR TERM...KJC/EVT
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...KJC/EVT
MARINE...KJC/EVT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...KJC
CLIMATE...STAFF



000
FXUS61 KBOX 011227
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
727 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT THE REGION VERY LATER TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY EVENING WITH HEAVY SNOW FOR MANY LOCATIONS. BITTERLY
COLD WIND CHILLS FOLLOW LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
MODERATING TEMPS WEDNESDAY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME LIGHT SNOW
THEN VERY COLD CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
A COASTAL STORM WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE
WEEK BUT WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
715 AM UPDATE...
NOTING WINDS SLACKENING ACROSS THE INTERIOR OVER THE LAST FEW
HOURS AS THEY HAVE BACKED TO W-SW. LOOKS LIKE THE ARCTIC FRONT
LYING ACROSS N VT/N CENTRAL NH INTO CENTRAL ME AT 12Z AS WINDS N
OF IT HAVE SHIFTED TO NW. ALSO NOTING A THIN BAND OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS THAT HAS DEVELOPED FROM NEAR KALB-KPSF-KBDL MOVING SE
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. AREA OF LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAS ALSO
MOVED INTO W MA/W CT AS WELL WITH THE SNOW SHOWERS...BUT LEADING
EDGE OF MAIN AREA OF CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW ACROSS E
PA/CENTRAL NJ.

WHERE WINDS HAVE DROPPED TO CALM NOTING TEMPS BELOW ZERO...AS LOW
AS -9 AT KORE AND -4 AT KOWD...THOUGH MILDER WHERE THE CLOUDS HAVE
MOVED IN AS WELL AS LIGHT SW WIND FLOW MAINLY ACROSS THE CT
VALLEY.

HAVE UPDATED NEAR TERM FORECAST TO BRING CONDITIONS CURRENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ARCTIC FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS SNE THIS AFTERNOON AND
REACHING THE SOUTH COAST TOWARD EVENING. MODELS INDICATE SOME LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TODAY WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME LOWER CLOUDS...
OTHERWISE SUNSHINE FOR MOST AREAS WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING
MID/HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE DAY. MAX TEMPS WILL REACH 25 TO 30
DEGREES BUT FALL INTO THE TEENS TOWARD EVENING IN FAR N ZONES AS
ARCTIC AIR DRAINS SOUTH. GUSTY WINDS ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS WILL
DIMINISH...OTHERWISE GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAJOR WINTER STORM VERY LATE TONIGHT INTO MON EVENING
* HEAVY SNOWFALL EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE REGION
* BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY IS SNOWFALL AMTS ACROSS RI AND SE MA DUE TO
  PTYPE ISSUES

OVERVIEW...

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A PROGRESSIVE BUT RATHER POTENT
MID LEVEL TROF WHICH MOVES EAST INTO SNE MON AND BECOMES
NEGATIVELY TILTED. THE SFC LOW TRACKS EAST FROM THE OH VALLEY AND
APPEARS TO JUMP/REDEVELOP ALONG THE MID ATLC COAST...TRACKING NEAR
OR JUST S OF LONG ISLAND TO ACK DURING MONDAY. WITH ARCTIC HIGH
IN PLACE TO THE NORTH...PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL COLD AIR IN PLACE BUT
WARMING ALOFT WILL MAKE FOR A TRICKY SNOWFALL FORECAST NEAR THE S
COAST. GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON QPF WITH 0.75-1.00" WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS ACROSS SE NEW ENG...BUT THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES WITH
THE THERMAL PROFILE. NAM IS THE COLDEST BUT LIKELY A RESULT OF IT
BEING FASTER WITH THE SFC LOW. GFS HAS TRENDED A BIT COLDER WHILE
ECMWF A BIT WARMER AND ONLY MINOR DIFFERENCES EXIST ALOFT. GIVEN
STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT ALL MODELS SHOW WARMING IN THE 850-700 MB
LAYER MOVING NORTH ALONG THE SNE COAST DURING MON. THE UNCERTAINTY
FOR THE SNOWFALL FORECAST IS DETERMINING HOW FAR N THE MIX LINE
GETS.

SYSTEM REMAINS AN OPEN WAVE AT 700 MB AS IT CROSSES CENTRAL NEW
ENG LATE MON SO NOT LOOKING AT TYPICAL BANDING SIGNAL ASSOCD WITH
STRONG MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. THIS WILL BE A CLASSIC STRONG
OVERRUNNING EVENT AS MILDER AIR AND MOISTURE OVERRUNS VERY STRONG
LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS SNE WITH ARCTIC TO THE NORTH.

1) TIMING AND PTYPE

SNOW DEVELOPS IN THE CT VALLEY BY MIDNIGHT THEN QUICKLY
OVERSPREADS THE REST OF SNE THROUGH DAYBREAK. THE SNOW WILL
QUICKLY BECOME HEAVY LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AND WILL
HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE MORNING COMMUTE. GOOD SNOW
GROWTH AROUND 12Z AND STRONG MID LEVEL OMEGA WILL RESULT IN A
GOOD FRONT END THUMP WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR
ACROSS THE REGION FOR SEVERAL HOURS IN THE MORNING.

THE UNCERTAINTY INCREASES CLOSER TO THE S COAST MID/LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON AS WARMER AIR ALOFT SURGES NORTHWARD. WE
BLENDED THE MODELS WHICH SUGGEST A MIX OR CHANGE TO SLEET BRIEFLY
GETTING TO MA/N RI BORDER BY MIDDAY BEFORE COLLAPSING SE DURING
THE AFTERNOON. FURTHER S...DEEPER WARM LAYER WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND POSSIBLY SOME
RAIN AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS. A CHANGE TO PLAIN RAIN IS MOST
LIKELY OVER THE ISLANDS. ANY RAIN OR MIXED PRECIP WILL CHANGE BACK
TO SNOW MID/LATE AFTERNOON BUT NOT UNTIL EVENING FOR THE
OUTER/CAPE ISLANDS.

THIS IS STILL A VERY TRICKY PTYPE FORECAST DUE TO THE STRONG
LOW/MID LEVEL TEMP GRADIENT SO PTYPE WILL BE VERY SENSITIVE TO
JUST A MINOR SHIFT IN THE SFC AND 850 MB LOW TRACK.

SNOWFALL IN THE AFTERNOON WILL NOT BE AS HEAVY AS THE MORNING AS
BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT WEAKENS AND SNOW GROWTH NOT QUITE AS
FAVORABLE...BUT STILL SOME DECENT SNOWFALL ESPECIALLY IN THE
NORTH.

2) SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS AND HEADLINES

WE HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN HEAVY SNOWFALL FOR MUCH OF THE REGION
WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW LIKELY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE
WHERE DEFINITELY NO MIXING ISSUES. EXPECT SNOW ACCUM AROUND A
FOOT FOR THIS REGION...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS AROUND 6 TO 10 INCHES
FURTHER S ACROSS RI AND SE MA DUE TO MIXING ISSUES. WE HAVE ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE FOR UP TO 6 INCHES NEAR THE S COAST TO UPGRADE TO A
WARNING. IN ADDITION THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR UP TO A TENTH OF AN
INCH OF ICE ACCRETION NEAR THE COAST. AMOUNTS MAY FALL SHORT OF 6
INCHES ON CAPE COD...BUT WE INCLUDED THEM IN THE WARNING DUE TO
COMBINATION OF SNOW AND SOME ICE.

FOR THE ISLANDS...WE WILL GO WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
ACCUM 2 TO 5 INCHES...LEAST ON NANTUCKET.

3) STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW

NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH EXPECTED ALONG THE EASTERN
MASS COAST MONDAY AS STORM INTENSIFIES AND PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES. THIS WILL RESULT IN POOR VISIBILITY ALONG WITH BLOWING
AND DRIFTING SNOW. ITS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW LOCATIONS ALONG THE
COAST COULD SEE NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FOR A VERY SHORT
TIME...BUT STORM DOESN/T SEEM TO WARRANT THOSE TYPE OF HEADLINES.

4) TEMPS

A VERY STRONG COASTAL FRONT WILL SET UP DURING MONDAY WITH TEMPS
IN THE TEENS NORTH OF I-84 TO I-90 CORRIDOR AND WEST OF I-495
WITH EVEN SOME SINGLE NUMBERS FAR N/NW MA...WHILE TEMPS WILL REACH
THE LOWER TO MID 30S SE MA. A FLASH FREEZE IS LIKELY ACROSS SE
COASTAL MA AND CAPE/ISLANDS IN THE EVENING AS THE COASTAL FRONT
MOVES THROUGH AND TEMPS PLUMMET.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK INTO
  THE WEEKEND
* MAY SEE A BRIEF BREAK OF THE COLD TEMPS AROUND MID WEEK AS HIGH
  PRES MOVES S OF THE REGION
* CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WED
  NIGHT/THU WITH A COLD FRONT LATE THU

OVERVIEW...

00Z MODEL SUITE AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE WITH SIMILAR UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE FOR OVER A
WEEK AT LEAST. NOTING H5 RIDGE BUILDING ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST
WHILE PERSISTENT LONG WAVE TROUGHING REMAINS ACROSS THE EAST WITH
VORTEX CENTERED AROUND HUDSON BAY EARLY THIS WEEK. DOES LOOK LIKE
THIS WILL TEND TO FLATTEN OUT AROUND MID WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE WORKS OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA ALONG WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE AN
CLIPPER TYPE SURFACE LOW. AS THIS SYSTEM WORKS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND
AROUND WED NIGHT OR THU...DO NOTE SOME MODEL SPREAD IN DIGGING THE
ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE. ALSO...AS THE CLIPPER HEADS TOWARD THE
MARITIMES LATE THIS WEEK IT WILL DEEPEN...WHICH MAY SLOW THE
PASSING COLD FRONT DOWN OFFSHORE AS AN OCEAN LOW APPEARS TO FORM
DOWN THE COAST. SOME AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE ON THE 00Z
CANADIAN GGEM AND ECMWF...BUT IT DOES LOOK TO REMAIN OFFSHORE AT
THIS POINT.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR THIS MORNING/S FORECAST...
WHICH SHOWED GOOD CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

DETAILS...

MONDAY NIGHT...LEFTOVER SNOW WILL END ACROSS THE CT VALLEY EARLY
MON NIGHT...THEN BACK EDGE WILL SHIFT E OVERNIGHT. SOME LIGHT
PRECIP MAY LINGER UNTIL DAYBREAK ACROSS E COASTAL AREAS. VERY COLD
AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WILL LIKELY NEED WIND CHILL
HEADLINES ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

OVERNIGHT LOWS MAY NOT BE QUITE AS COLD AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST
DUE TO LINGERING CLOUDS...BUT WILL STILL SEE SOME LOCATIONS DROP
BELOW ZERO AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...GUSTY NW WINDS WILL LINGER THROUGH AROUND
MIDDAY OR SO ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE STRONG LOW PRES OVER THE
GULF OF ST LAWRENCE. NE-SW ORIENTED HIGH PRES WILL BUILD E DURING
THE DAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE TEENS FOR
MOST AREAS...EXCEPT 20-25 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S COAST...CAPE COD
AND THE ISLANDS.

HIGH PRES RIDGE CRESTS ACROSS THE REGION TUE NIGHT AS LIGHT WINDS
ACTUALLY BACK TO SW. WITH A NEW AND DEEP SNOWPACK THOUGH...LOWS
WILL STILL FALL BACK TO THE SINGLE DIGITS EXCEPT THE TEENS ALONG
THE S COAST. MAY START TO SEE SOME CLOUDS INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT
ACROSS WESTERN AREAS.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...CLIPPER LOW MOVES QUICKLY SE TOWARD THE
REGION. WITH LIGHT SW FLOW IN PLACE...TEMPS MAY ACTUALLY REBOUND
TO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ON WED. HOWEVER...LEADING EDGE OF
PRECIP MAY BRING SCT SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS N AND W MA DURING
THE DAY INTO WED NIGHT AS THE LOW PASSES TO THE N. CURRENT TIMING
OF TRAILING COLD FRONT SUGGESTS PASSAGE DURING THU WITH BEST SHOT
FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. NOT MUCH QPF WITH THIS FEATURE AT THIS
POINT. MAY SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS DURING THU AS ANOTHER
WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT. N WINDS MAY BECOME BLUSTERY
LATE THU/THU NIGHT ALONG THE COAST AS COLDER AIR RETURNS.

FRIDAY...LOOKS TO BE A GENERALLY DRY BUT COLD DAY. MIGHT SEE SOME
LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM.../THROUGH MONDAY/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. NOTING MVFR CIGS ACROSS MID
AND LOWER CT VALLEY WITH PATCHY -SHSN AT 11Z...WHICH SHOULD
IMPROVE BY LATE MORNING. MAY SEE PATCHY MVFR CIGS ACROSS N CT/RI
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.

VFR THIS EVENING DETERIORATES TO IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS IN MODERATE
TO HEAVY SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT TO DAYBREAK FROM WEST TO EAST.
IFR/LIFR IN MOD/HEAVY SNOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY MON. PTYPE
MAY TRANSITION TO A PERIOD OF SLEET/FREEZING RAIN AROUND MIDDAY
FROM PVD-TAN-PYM SOUTH AND CHANGING TO RAIN OVER THE OUTER
CAPE/ISLANDS. NE WIND GUSTS TO 30-35 KT DEVELOPING ACROSS E
COASTAL MA MONDAY...WITH 25 KT ACROSS RI AND REMAINDER OF E MA.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING OF
IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING OF
IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER IN TIMING.
EXPECT MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS EARLY...THEN SHOULD IMPROVE FROM W-E
DURING THE NIGHT AS PRECIP EXITS. LOWER CONDITIONS MAY LINGER
ACROSS ALONG E COAST THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT. EXPECT N-NW WINDS
GUSTING TO 25-35 KT...HIGHEST ALONG THE COAST.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR ON TUESDAY. NW WIND
GUSTS TO 25-30 KT EARLY ALONG THE COAST.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. COULD SEE SOME MVFR CIGS IN SCT
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS N CENTRAL AND W MA.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. MAY SEE LOCAL MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN SCT SNOW SHOWERS. NW WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT
DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY BUT
EXPECT SCA WAVES TO REMAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT FREEZING
SPRAY WILL PERSIST.

TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS/SEAS QUICKLY RAMP UP DURING MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
INTENSIFIES NEAR THE SOUTH COAST. GALE WATCHES CONTINUE. THE MAIN
FOCUS FOR GUSTS TO 40 KT MONDAY WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN MA COASTAL
WATERS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF CAPE COD...WITH LIGHTER WINDS OVER
THE SOUTH COASTAL WATER. SEAS BUILD TO 15+ FEET ACROSS OUR EASTERN
WATERS BY LATE MON AFTERNOON/EVENING.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT...EXPECT GALE FORCE NW WIND GUSTS. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY WATCH CONTINUES. SEAS BUILD UP TO 9-14 FT ON THE OUTER
WATERS.

TUESDAY...NW GALES LIKELY ALONG WITH FREEZING SPRAY...POSSIBLY
MODERATE TO HEAVY. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH GOOD VSBY EXCEPT
FAR OFFSHORE WHERE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE COMMON.

WEDNESDAY...WINDS EASE AND BECOME SOUTHWEST AS CLIPPER LOW ENTERS
THE GREAT LAKES AND NY STATE. NOT AS COLD SO FREEZING SPRAY
UNLIKELY. VSBYS MAY BRIEFLY LOWER IN A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW.

THURSDAY...COLD FRONT PASSES WITH STRONG SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS.
CHANCE OF LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY LATE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
*** LOW RISK FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING MON NIGHT EASTERN MA
 COASTLINE ***

THE FIRST TIDE CYCLE MONDAY MORNING SHOULD NOT POSE ANY RISKS AS
WINDS WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR A LONG ENOUGH PERIOD OF TIME
TO PRODUCE THE WAVE ACTION OR SURGE NECESSARY FOR COASTAL
FLOODING. A SURGE OF 1 FOOT IS POSSIBLE BUT SEAS WILL BE WELL
UNDER 10 FT.

AS FOR THE MONDAY EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE...ASTRO TIDES ARE ABOUT
1 FT LOWER BUT WAVES WILL BE BUILDING TO 15 TO 20 FT. WE EXPECT
ABOUT A 1.5 TO 2.5 FT STORM SURGE BUT THIS MAY NOT OVERLAP THE
EVENING HIGH TIDE AND MAY OCCUR CLOSER TO LOW TIDE WITH SURGE
VALUES DECREASING TOWARD THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE AS WINDS TURN N.
IF THIS TIMING PLAYS OUT...THE PROBABILITY FOR ANY COASTAL
FLOODING WILL BE LOW. HOWEVER...WE ARE TALKING ABOUT ONLY 6 HOURS
AND IF THE MAX SURGE IS DELAYED AND OVERLAPS THE HIGH TIDE...THERE
WILL BE A HIGHER RISK OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WITH A LOW RISK OF
ISOLD MODERATE FLOODING...MAINLY FROM CAPE COD TO CAPE ANN WITH
PERHAPS THE HIGHEST RISK FROM HULL/COHASSET/SCITUATE/
MARSHFIELD/PLYMOUTH TO SANDWICH HARBOR. AGAIN...THIS WILL DEPEND
OM THE TIMING OF THE MAX SURGE OCCURRING CLOSE TO HIGH TIDE WHICH
DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY AT THIS TIME.

WINDS...SEAS AND STORM SURGE WILL BE CONSIDERABLY LESS THAN THE
PREVIOUS COASTAL STORM BUT THERE COULD STILL BE SOME IMPACT
ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE COMMUNITIES SUCH AS MARSHFIELD MA THAT WERE
HIT HARD EARLIER THIS WEEK WHERE COASTAL STRUCTURES SUCH AS
SEAWALLS WERE DAMAGED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WITH EXTREMELY COLD AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW MONDAY
NIGHT...TEMPERATURES MAY FALL BACK CLOSE TO OR SURPASSING RECORD
LEVELS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

HERE ARE THE RECORD LOWS FOR TUESDAY 2/3...

BOSTON         -5 SET IN 1881
PROVIDENCE     -6 SET IN 1961
WORCESTER      -7 SET IN 1931, 1955 AND 1971
WINDSOR LOCKS  -3 SET IN 1955
BLUE HILL OBS  -7 SET IN 1955

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR MAZ023-024.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR MAZ002>022-026.
RI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR RIZ008.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR RIZ001>007.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ231>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ231-232-251.
     HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR ANZ231>235-237-250-251-254>256.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ231-
     232-250-251-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ233>235-237.
     GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ230-236.
     GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ250-251-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ250-
     254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/EVT
NEAR TERM...KJC/EVT
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...KJC/EVT
MARINE...KJC/EVT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...KJC
CLIMATE...STAFF



  [top]

000
FXUS61 KOKX 011152
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
652 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
TO THE NORTH. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT
AND PASSES JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND MONDAY. THE LOW TRACKS WELL
TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. AN ARCTIC FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY...THEN PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS HIGH
BUILDS TO THE SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTH ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK RIDGING ALOFT AHEAD OF UPSTREAM TROUGH CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY.
MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND LIFT ALONG
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE SOUTH...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. IN
BETWEEN...FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSES THROUGH AND REMAINS TO THE SOUTH
TODAY.

CHILLY MORNING TEMPS WILL RISE TO AROUND OR INTO THE LOWER 30S TODAY
PER MOS BLEND.

MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY...ALTHOUGH A FEW SNOW FLAKES MAY BE
OBSERVED LATE FOR WESTERN SECTIONS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND IN
RESPONSE TO WEAK LIFT IN WARM AIR ADVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
CHALLENGING WINTER FORECAST...WITH MIXED PRECIPITATION TYPE TO DEAL
WITH THIS TIME FRAME.

A SLIGHT NORTHWARD TREND TO THE SFC LOW TRACK IS NOTED.

STRONG LIFT AHEAD OF TROUGH...WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE TAPPED IN FROM
THE SOUTH...WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A HEAVY PRECIP EVENT.
ANALYSIS OF 00Z NWP SUITE INDICATES MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES QUICKLY ACROSS THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY THIS
EVENING...TRACKING TOWARD THE EAST COAST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
SURFACE LOW ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
EVENING MOVES EAST TRACKING ACROSS SRN PA TOWARD THE SRN OR
CENTRAL NJ COAST EARLY MONDAY. THE LOW TRACKS JUST SOUTH MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH BY MONDAY EVENING...WITH
SFC LOW TRACKING WELL TO THE EAST.

VERY TOUGH FORECAST FOR MULTIPLE REASONS. MODELS DO INDICATE LOW
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURRING AS H8 LOW TRACKS OVER OR JUST
NORTH OF NYC. AT THE SURFACE...WINDS REMAIN GENERALLY FROM THE EAST
TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE LOW AND TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

BY MONDAY...ENOUGH WARM AIR ALOFT MOVES IN...WITH NAM AND ECMWF
FAIRLY CLOSE WITH REGARD TO TEMPS ALOFT. GFS IS SLIGHTLY WARMER.
LOOKING AT SFC AND BOUNDARY LAYER...FOLLOWED A GRIDDED MOS...NAM
DOWNSCALE BLEND FOR SLOW WARMING IN EAST FLOW...MAINLY FOR EASTERN
LONG ISLAND AND POSSIBLY INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN LONG ISLAND AND
SRN PORTIONS OF NYC.

INTERESTINGLY...HIGH RES ARW AND NMM TRACK THE LOW JUST
SOUTH...BUT PROG THE COASTAL FRONT ACROSS LONG ISLAND...WHICH
SETS UP A LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT.
TEMPS IN THE 40S AS WINDS TURN SOUTH. THIS OBVIOUSLY WOULD BE
PROBLEMATIC AND WOULD REQUIRE A HUGE SHIFT IN THE FORECAST.
AGAIN...WILL FOLLOW THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF IN KEEPING THE LOW AND CSTL
FRONT JUST SOUTH...BUT WARMING EAST END OF LI AND SRN LI
SUFFICIENTLY TO RESULT IN RAIN. ACROSS THE INTERIOR...ENOUGH WARM
AIR ALOFT FOR SNOW MIXING WITH SLEET AND FREEZING
RAIN...STRETCHING SW TO NE ACROSS THE AREA.

GIVEN COLD WATER TEMPS...WOULD BELIEVE TEMPS DO NOT RISE MUCH
ABOVE 32 FOR LONG ISLAND AND INTO NYC. WILL CONVERT THE WATCHES TO
WARNINGS...EXCEPT EASTERN LONG ISLAND...SOUTHERN SUFFOLK AND
SOUTHERN NASSAU. GIVEN THE HIGH LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY...WILL ALLOW
THE DAY SHIFT ONE MORE LOOK TO DETERMINE CONVERSION TO WARNINGS OR
TO ADVISORIES. ANY FURTHER NORTH SHIFT TO SFC LOW AND H8 LOW WOULD
RESULT IN MORE LIQUID.

IN ADDITION...FREEZING RAIN A CONCERN FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA.

THE BOTTOM LINE IS...HIGH IMPACT FOR MORNING COMMUTE WARRANTS A
WARNING FOR MOST OF THE AREA. CLOSER TO THE COAST...SNOW TO
RAIN/FZRA/IP. THEN BACK TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING AS DEFORMATION BAND
MOVES THROUGH ON THE BACK SIDE AS THE LOW DEPARTS LATE IN THE DAY
MONDAY.

INTERIOR...MAINLY SNOW...WITH POSSIBLY SOME SLEET MONDAY MORNING.

EASTERN/SRN LONG ISLAND...SNOW TO RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN (DEPENDING
ON THOSE SFC TEMPS)...THEN POSSIBLY BACK TO SNOW.

***IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT MANY COASTAL AREA SNOW TOTAL
 FORECASTS ARE FOR SNOW AHEAD OF WINTRY MIX TRANSITION...AND AFTER
 WINTRY MIX CHANGES BACK TO SNOW. HOWEVER...ANY RAIN WILL LIKELY
 WASH THE SNOW AWAY...LEAVING SLUSHY CONDITIONS AND LOWER TOTALS AS
 A RESULT***

SO...MORNING COMMUTE WILL LIKELY BE A MESS ALL CWA. THE AFTERNOON
COMMUTE WILL LIKELY BE PROBLEMATIC AS WELL FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
ANY LEFTOVER SLUSH WILL FREEZE AS ARCTIC AIR RUSHES BACK IN.
EXPECT ICY CONDITIONS LATE IN THE DAY...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS THAT
CHANGE TO RAIN LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

HEAVIEST PRECIP IS LATE TONIGHT (09-11Z THROUGH 16-18Z) WHEN
GREATEST LIFT IS REALIZED.

ANY LINGERING LIGHT SNOW MONDAY EVENING ENDS AS THE TROUGH MOVES
EAST/ GUSTY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL USHER IN VERY COLD AIR. LOW TEMPS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT SHOULD KEEP THINGS DRY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A
WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES ON WEDNESDAY...WITH A STRONGER SHORTWAVE
APPROACHING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...JUST BEHIND AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT AT
THE SURFACE. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH FORCING WITH THE SHORTWAVES AND
THE FRONT TO PRODUCE ISOLD-SCT -SHSN WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THERE REMAIN MODEL DIFFERENCES FROM THURSDAY ON. BOTH THE ECMWF AND
CMC SUGGEST THAT THE ARCTIC FRONT BECOME AN ANAFRONT WITH SNOW
BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...AND THE CMC GOES FARTHER
AND BRINGS A COASTAL LOW ALONG IT CLOSE ENOUGH TO IMPACT THE AREA.
THE GFS GENERALLY KEEP THINGS DRY THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW
WENT WITH CHANCE POPS ON THURSDAY...EXCEPT SLIGHT CHANCE FAR N
TIER...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THURSDAY NIGHT...EXCEPT DRY FAR NNW
TIER OF THE CWA.

ALL MODELS AGREE SHOULD BE DRY FRIDAY-SATURDAY ON NW FLOW ALOFT.

MAIN STORY OF THE EXTENDED WILL BE BITTERLY COLD AIR ARRIVING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGHS WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S AND LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WIND
CHILLS SHOULD BE BELOW ZERO THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING...AND
POSSIBLY BE NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER NW INTERIOR ZONES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
**HIGH IMPACT EVENT TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY**

HIGH PRES SOUTH OF THE AREA WEAKENS AND MOVES OFFSHORE TODAY. LOW
PRES OVER THE MIDWEST MOVES EAST TODAY...AND A WARM FRONT
EXTENDING AHEAD OF THE LOW PUSHES INTO THE TERMINALS FROM WEST TO
EAST BY THIS EVENING. LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT STEADY AND MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW PUSHES INTO
WESTERN TERMINALS FROM 02-04Z MONDAY AND INTO EASTERN TERMINALS
FROM 03-05Z.

SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

FOR THE 30 HR TAFS...SNOW WILL MIX WITH FREEZING RAIN MONDAY
MORNING...AND SNOW/FREEZING RAIN WILL LIFT TO THE NORTH THROUGHOUT
THE MORNING.

WEST WINDS 10 KT OR LESS TODAY WILL BECOME LGT/VRB THIS EVENING.
LATER TONIGHT...EAST WINDS INCREASE TO 10-15 KT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.MONDAY...SNOW BECOMES A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN
FOR ALL BUT KSWF...WHICH WILL REMAIN ALL SNOW FOR THE EVENT.
RUNWAY ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM 3-5" FOR KJFK/KISP...6-8" FOR
KLGA/KEWR/KTEB/KHPN/KBDR/KGON...AND UP TO 12" FOR KSWF. IN
ADDITION...UP TO 1/4" ICE POSSIBLE FOR ALL BUT KSWF. PRECIP
CHANGES BACK TO ALL SNOW THROUGHOUT MONDAY EVENING BEFORE ENDING.
N WINDS 10-15 KT WITH 20-25 KT GUSTS.
.MONDAY NIGHT...ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS END...AND CONDS IMPROVE
TO VFR. NW WINDS 15-20 KT WITH 25-35 KT GUSTS.
.TUESDAY...VFR.
.WEDNESDAY...VFR. A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOCALLY MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS.
.THURSDAY...VFR. NW GUSTS 20 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS HAVE FALLEN BELOW SCA LEVELS ON THE COASTAL OCEAN
WATERS. THE REGION WILL BE UNDER A RELATIVELY RELAXED PRESSURE
GRADIENT THROUGH THIS EVENING...SO SUB-SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED.

WINDS INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ON ALL WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT
AND PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY...SO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
HOISTED ACCORDINGLY. GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ARE PROBABLE MONDAY NIGHT
ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS...SO A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED THEN
FOR THOSE WATERS. FOR THE NON-OCEAN WATERS...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...SO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THESE
WATERS LAST THROUGH THEN. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR GALE FORCE
WIND GUSTS ON THE NON-OCEAN WATERS AS WELL MONDAY NIGHT.

SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ON ALL WATERS
TUESDAY...AND POSSIBLY GALE FORCE WINDS GUSTS IN THE MORNING ON THE
COASTAL OCEAN WATERS. CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH
FOR ANY HEADLINES ON TUESDAY YET.

SUB-SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE NON-OCEAN WATERS
TUESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY WITH WINDS 15 KT OR LESS. ON THE OCEAN WATERS
SMALL CRAFT LEVEL SEAS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE TIME FRAME...WITH
THE BEST CHANCE WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY THOUGH A COMBINATION OF WINDS
JUST UNDER SMALL CRAFT LEVELS AND SWELLS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GENERALLY 1 TO 1 1/2 INCHES OF LIQUID FORECAST WITH THE SYSTEM
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. MOST OF THIS WILL BE SNOW AND SLEET
ACROSS NE NJ...LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND CT.

ACROSS LI/NYC THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF HEAVY
RAIN. AS SUCH...URBAN FLOODING ISSUES ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
DUE TO CLOGGED SNOW COVERED DRAINS.

NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PCPN IS FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT FOR THE HIGH TIDE ON MONDAY...THAT
DEPARTURES WILL REMAIN 1 TO 1.5 FEET BELOW THAT REQUIRED FOR COASTAL
FLOODING. WITH DEPARTURES OF 1.5-2 FT REQUIRED AND ONLY .5 TO 1 FT
DEPARTURES CURRENTLY FORECAST.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR NYZ079>081-179.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR NYZ067>075-078-176>178.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345.
     GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/PW
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/PW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...











000
FXUS61 KOKX 011152
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
652 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
TO THE NORTH. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT
AND PASSES JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND MONDAY. THE LOW TRACKS WELL
TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. AN ARCTIC FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY...THEN PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS HIGH
BUILDS TO THE SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTH ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK RIDGING ALOFT AHEAD OF UPSTREAM TROUGH CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY.
MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND LIFT ALONG
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE SOUTH...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. IN
BETWEEN...FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSES THROUGH AND REMAINS TO THE SOUTH
TODAY.

CHILLY MORNING TEMPS WILL RISE TO AROUND OR INTO THE LOWER 30S TODAY
PER MOS BLEND.

MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY...ALTHOUGH A FEW SNOW FLAKES MAY BE
OBSERVED LATE FOR WESTERN SECTIONS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND IN
RESPONSE TO WEAK LIFT IN WARM AIR ADVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
CHALLENGING WINTER FORECAST...WITH MIXED PRECIPITATION TYPE TO DEAL
WITH THIS TIME FRAME.

A SLIGHT NORTHWARD TREND TO THE SFC LOW TRACK IS NOTED.

STRONG LIFT AHEAD OF TROUGH...WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE TAPPED IN FROM
THE SOUTH...WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A HEAVY PRECIP EVENT.
ANALYSIS OF 00Z NWP SUITE INDICATES MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES QUICKLY ACROSS THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY THIS
EVENING...TRACKING TOWARD THE EAST COAST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
SURFACE LOW ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
EVENING MOVES EAST TRACKING ACROSS SRN PA TOWARD THE SRN OR
CENTRAL NJ COAST EARLY MONDAY. THE LOW TRACKS JUST SOUTH MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH BY MONDAY EVENING...WITH
SFC LOW TRACKING WELL TO THE EAST.

VERY TOUGH FORECAST FOR MULTIPLE REASONS. MODELS DO INDICATE LOW
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURRING AS H8 LOW TRACKS OVER OR JUST
NORTH OF NYC. AT THE SURFACE...WINDS REMAIN GENERALLY FROM THE EAST
TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE LOW AND TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

BY MONDAY...ENOUGH WARM AIR ALOFT MOVES IN...WITH NAM AND ECMWF
FAIRLY CLOSE WITH REGARD TO TEMPS ALOFT. GFS IS SLIGHTLY WARMER.
LOOKING AT SFC AND BOUNDARY LAYER...FOLLOWED A GRIDDED MOS...NAM
DOWNSCALE BLEND FOR SLOW WARMING IN EAST FLOW...MAINLY FOR EASTERN
LONG ISLAND AND POSSIBLY INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN LONG ISLAND AND
SRN PORTIONS OF NYC.

INTERESTINGLY...HIGH RES ARW AND NMM TRACK THE LOW JUST
SOUTH...BUT PROG THE COASTAL FRONT ACROSS LONG ISLAND...WHICH
SETS UP A LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT.
TEMPS IN THE 40S AS WINDS TURN SOUTH. THIS OBVIOUSLY WOULD BE
PROBLEMATIC AND WOULD REQUIRE A HUGE SHIFT IN THE FORECAST.
AGAIN...WILL FOLLOW THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF IN KEEPING THE LOW AND CSTL
FRONT JUST SOUTH...BUT WARMING EAST END OF LI AND SRN LI
SUFFICIENTLY TO RESULT IN RAIN. ACROSS THE INTERIOR...ENOUGH WARM
AIR ALOFT FOR SNOW MIXING WITH SLEET AND FREEZING
RAIN...STRETCHING SW TO NE ACROSS THE AREA.

GIVEN COLD WATER TEMPS...WOULD BELIEVE TEMPS DO NOT RISE MUCH
ABOVE 32 FOR LONG ISLAND AND INTO NYC. WILL CONVERT THE WATCHES TO
WARNINGS...EXCEPT EASTERN LONG ISLAND...SOUTHERN SUFFOLK AND
SOUTHERN NASSAU. GIVEN THE HIGH LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY...WILL ALLOW
THE DAY SHIFT ONE MORE LOOK TO DETERMINE CONVERSION TO WARNINGS OR
TO ADVISORIES. ANY FURTHER NORTH SHIFT TO SFC LOW AND H8 LOW WOULD
RESULT IN MORE LIQUID.

IN ADDITION...FREEZING RAIN A CONCERN FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA.

THE BOTTOM LINE IS...HIGH IMPACT FOR MORNING COMMUTE WARRANTS A
WARNING FOR MOST OF THE AREA. CLOSER TO THE COAST...SNOW TO
RAIN/FZRA/IP. THEN BACK TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING AS DEFORMATION BAND
MOVES THROUGH ON THE BACK SIDE AS THE LOW DEPARTS LATE IN THE DAY
MONDAY.

INTERIOR...MAINLY SNOW...WITH POSSIBLY SOME SLEET MONDAY MORNING.

EASTERN/SRN LONG ISLAND...SNOW TO RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN (DEPENDING
ON THOSE SFC TEMPS)...THEN POSSIBLY BACK TO SNOW.

***IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT MANY COASTAL AREA SNOW TOTAL
 FORECASTS ARE FOR SNOW AHEAD OF WINTRY MIX TRANSITION...AND AFTER
 WINTRY MIX CHANGES BACK TO SNOW. HOWEVER...ANY RAIN WILL LIKELY
 WASH THE SNOW AWAY...LEAVING SLUSHY CONDITIONS AND LOWER TOTALS AS
 A RESULT***

SO...MORNING COMMUTE WILL LIKELY BE A MESS ALL CWA. THE AFTERNOON
COMMUTE WILL LIKELY BE PROBLEMATIC AS WELL FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
ANY LEFTOVER SLUSH WILL FREEZE AS ARCTIC AIR RUSHES BACK IN.
EXPECT ICY CONDITIONS LATE IN THE DAY...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS THAT
CHANGE TO RAIN LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

HEAVIEST PRECIP IS LATE TONIGHT (09-11Z THROUGH 16-18Z) WHEN
GREATEST LIFT IS REALIZED.

ANY LINGERING LIGHT SNOW MONDAY EVENING ENDS AS THE TROUGH MOVES
EAST/ GUSTY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL USHER IN VERY COLD AIR. LOW TEMPS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT SHOULD KEEP THINGS DRY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A
WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES ON WEDNESDAY...WITH A STRONGER SHORTWAVE
APPROACHING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...JUST BEHIND AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT AT
THE SURFACE. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH FORCING WITH THE SHORTWAVES AND
THE FRONT TO PRODUCE ISOLD-SCT -SHSN WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THERE REMAIN MODEL DIFFERENCES FROM THURSDAY ON. BOTH THE ECMWF AND
CMC SUGGEST THAT THE ARCTIC FRONT BECOME AN ANAFRONT WITH SNOW
BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...AND THE CMC GOES FARTHER
AND BRINGS A COASTAL LOW ALONG IT CLOSE ENOUGH TO IMPACT THE AREA.
THE GFS GENERALLY KEEP THINGS DRY THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW
WENT WITH CHANCE POPS ON THURSDAY...EXCEPT SLIGHT CHANCE FAR N
TIER...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THURSDAY NIGHT...EXCEPT DRY FAR NNW
TIER OF THE CWA.

ALL MODELS AGREE SHOULD BE DRY FRIDAY-SATURDAY ON NW FLOW ALOFT.

MAIN STORY OF THE EXTENDED WILL BE BITTERLY COLD AIR ARRIVING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGHS WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S AND LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WIND
CHILLS SHOULD BE BELOW ZERO THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING...AND
POSSIBLY BE NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER NW INTERIOR ZONES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
**HIGH IMPACT EVENT TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY**

HIGH PRES SOUTH OF THE AREA WEAKENS AND MOVES OFFSHORE TODAY. LOW
PRES OVER THE MIDWEST MOVES EAST TODAY...AND A WARM FRONT
EXTENDING AHEAD OF THE LOW PUSHES INTO THE TERMINALS FROM WEST TO
EAST BY THIS EVENING. LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT STEADY AND MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW PUSHES INTO
WESTERN TERMINALS FROM 02-04Z MONDAY AND INTO EASTERN TERMINALS
FROM 03-05Z.

SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

FOR THE 30 HR TAFS...SNOW WILL MIX WITH FREEZING RAIN MONDAY
MORNING...AND SNOW/FREEZING RAIN WILL LIFT TO THE NORTH THROUGHOUT
THE MORNING.

WEST WINDS 10 KT OR LESS TODAY WILL BECOME LGT/VRB THIS EVENING.
LATER TONIGHT...EAST WINDS INCREASE TO 10-15 KT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.MONDAY...SNOW BECOMES A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN
FOR ALL BUT KSWF...WHICH WILL REMAIN ALL SNOW FOR THE EVENT.
RUNWAY ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM 3-5" FOR KJFK/KISP...6-8" FOR
KLGA/KEWR/KTEB/KHPN/KBDR/KGON...AND UP TO 12" FOR KSWF. IN
ADDITION...UP TO 1/4" ICE POSSIBLE FOR ALL BUT KSWF. PRECIP
CHANGES BACK TO ALL SNOW THROUGHOUT MONDAY EVENING BEFORE ENDING.
N WINDS 10-15 KT WITH 20-25 KT GUSTS.
.MONDAY NIGHT...ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS END...AND CONDS IMPROVE
TO VFR. NW WINDS 15-20 KT WITH 25-35 KT GUSTS.
.TUESDAY...VFR.
.WEDNESDAY...VFR. A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOCALLY MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS.
.THURSDAY...VFR. NW GUSTS 20 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS HAVE FALLEN BELOW SCA LEVELS ON THE COASTAL OCEAN
WATERS. THE REGION WILL BE UNDER A RELATIVELY RELAXED PRESSURE
GRADIENT THROUGH THIS EVENING...SO SUB-SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED.

WINDS INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ON ALL WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT
AND PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY...SO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
HOISTED ACCORDINGLY. GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ARE PROBABLE MONDAY NIGHT
ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS...SO A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED THEN
FOR THOSE WATERS. FOR THE NON-OCEAN WATERS...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...SO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THESE
WATERS LAST THROUGH THEN. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR GALE FORCE
WIND GUSTS ON THE NON-OCEAN WATERS AS WELL MONDAY NIGHT.

SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ON ALL WATERS
TUESDAY...AND POSSIBLY GALE FORCE WINDS GUSTS IN THE MORNING ON THE
COASTAL OCEAN WATERS. CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH
FOR ANY HEADLINES ON TUESDAY YET.

SUB-SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE NON-OCEAN WATERS
TUESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY WITH WINDS 15 KT OR LESS. ON THE OCEAN WATERS
SMALL CRAFT LEVEL SEAS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE TIME FRAME...WITH
THE BEST CHANCE WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY THOUGH A COMBINATION OF WINDS
JUST UNDER SMALL CRAFT LEVELS AND SWELLS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GENERALLY 1 TO 1 1/2 INCHES OF LIQUID FORECAST WITH THE SYSTEM
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. MOST OF THIS WILL BE SNOW AND SLEET
ACROSS NE NJ...LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND CT.

ACROSS LI/NYC THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF HEAVY
RAIN. AS SUCH...URBAN FLOODING ISSUES ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
DUE TO CLOGGED SNOW COVERED DRAINS.

NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PCPN IS FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT FOR THE HIGH TIDE ON MONDAY...THAT
DEPARTURES WILL REMAIN 1 TO 1.5 FEET BELOW THAT REQUIRED FOR COASTAL
FLOODING. WITH DEPARTURES OF 1.5-2 FT REQUIRED AND ONLY .5 TO 1 FT
DEPARTURES CURRENTLY FORECAST.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR NYZ079>081-179.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR NYZ067>075-078-176>178.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345.
     GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/PW
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/PW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...











000
FXUS61 KOKX 011152
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
652 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
TO THE NORTH. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT
AND PASSES JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND MONDAY. THE LOW TRACKS WELL
TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. AN ARCTIC FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY...THEN PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS HIGH
BUILDS TO THE SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTH ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK RIDGING ALOFT AHEAD OF UPSTREAM TROUGH CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY.
MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND LIFT ALONG
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE SOUTH...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. IN
BETWEEN...FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSES THROUGH AND REMAINS TO THE SOUTH
TODAY.

CHILLY MORNING TEMPS WILL RISE TO AROUND OR INTO THE LOWER 30S TODAY
PER MOS BLEND.

MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY...ALTHOUGH A FEW SNOW FLAKES MAY BE
OBSERVED LATE FOR WESTERN SECTIONS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND IN
RESPONSE TO WEAK LIFT IN WARM AIR ADVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
CHALLENGING WINTER FORECAST...WITH MIXED PRECIPITATION TYPE TO DEAL
WITH THIS TIME FRAME.

A SLIGHT NORTHWARD TREND TO THE SFC LOW TRACK IS NOTED.

STRONG LIFT AHEAD OF TROUGH...WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE TAPPED IN FROM
THE SOUTH...WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A HEAVY PRECIP EVENT.
ANALYSIS OF 00Z NWP SUITE INDICATES MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES QUICKLY ACROSS THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY THIS
EVENING...TRACKING TOWARD THE EAST COAST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
SURFACE LOW ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
EVENING MOVES EAST TRACKING ACROSS SRN PA TOWARD THE SRN OR
CENTRAL NJ COAST EARLY MONDAY. THE LOW TRACKS JUST SOUTH MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH BY MONDAY EVENING...WITH
SFC LOW TRACKING WELL TO THE EAST.

VERY TOUGH FORECAST FOR MULTIPLE REASONS. MODELS DO INDICATE LOW
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURRING AS H8 LOW TRACKS OVER OR JUST
NORTH OF NYC. AT THE SURFACE...WINDS REMAIN GENERALLY FROM THE EAST
TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE LOW AND TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

BY MONDAY...ENOUGH WARM AIR ALOFT MOVES IN...WITH NAM AND ECMWF
FAIRLY CLOSE WITH REGARD TO TEMPS ALOFT. GFS IS SLIGHTLY WARMER.
LOOKING AT SFC AND BOUNDARY LAYER...FOLLOWED A GRIDDED MOS...NAM
DOWNSCALE BLEND FOR SLOW WARMING IN EAST FLOW...MAINLY FOR EASTERN
LONG ISLAND AND POSSIBLY INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN LONG ISLAND AND
SRN PORTIONS OF NYC.

INTERESTINGLY...HIGH RES ARW AND NMM TRACK THE LOW JUST
SOUTH...BUT PROG THE COASTAL FRONT ACROSS LONG ISLAND...WHICH
SETS UP A LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT.
TEMPS IN THE 40S AS WINDS TURN SOUTH. THIS OBVIOUSLY WOULD BE
PROBLEMATIC AND WOULD REQUIRE A HUGE SHIFT IN THE FORECAST.
AGAIN...WILL FOLLOW THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF IN KEEPING THE LOW AND CSTL
FRONT JUST SOUTH...BUT WARMING EAST END OF LI AND SRN LI
SUFFICIENTLY TO RESULT IN RAIN. ACROSS THE INTERIOR...ENOUGH WARM
AIR ALOFT FOR SNOW MIXING WITH SLEET AND FREEZING
RAIN...STRETCHING SW TO NE ACROSS THE AREA.

GIVEN COLD WATER TEMPS...WOULD BELIEVE TEMPS DO NOT RISE MUCH
ABOVE 32 FOR LONG ISLAND AND INTO NYC. WILL CONVERT THE WATCHES TO
WARNINGS...EXCEPT EASTERN LONG ISLAND...SOUTHERN SUFFOLK AND
SOUTHERN NASSAU. GIVEN THE HIGH LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY...WILL ALLOW
THE DAY SHIFT ONE MORE LOOK TO DETERMINE CONVERSION TO WARNINGS OR
TO ADVISORIES. ANY FURTHER NORTH SHIFT TO SFC LOW AND H8 LOW WOULD
RESULT IN MORE LIQUID.

IN ADDITION...FREEZING RAIN A CONCERN FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA.

THE BOTTOM LINE IS...HIGH IMPACT FOR MORNING COMMUTE WARRANTS A
WARNING FOR MOST OF THE AREA. CLOSER TO THE COAST...SNOW TO
RAIN/FZRA/IP. THEN BACK TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING AS DEFORMATION BAND
MOVES THROUGH ON THE BACK SIDE AS THE LOW DEPARTS LATE IN THE DAY
MONDAY.

INTERIOR...MAINLY SNOW...WITH POSSIBLY SOME SLEET MONDAY MORNING.

EASTERN/SRN LONG ISLAND...SNOW TO RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN (DEPENDING
ON THOSE SFC TEMPS)...THEN POSSIBLY BACK TO SNOW.

***IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT MANY COASTAL AREA SNOW TOTAL
 FORECASTS ARE FOR SNOW AHEAD OF WINTRY MIX TRANSITION...AND AFTER
 WINTRY MIX CHANGES BACK TO SNOW. HOWEVER...ANY RAIN WILL LIKELY
 WASH THE SNOW AWAY...LEAVING SLUSHY CONDITIONS AND LOWER TOTALS AS
 A RESULT***

SO...MORNING COMMUTE WILL LIKELY BE A MESS ALL CWA. THE AFTERNOON
COMMUTE WILL LIKELY BE PROBLEMATIC AS WELL FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
ANY LEFTOVER SLUSH WILL FREEZE AS ARCTIC AIR RUSHES BACK IN.
EXPECT ICY CONDITIONS LATE IN THE DAY...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS THAT
CHANGE TO RAIN LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

HEAVIEST PRECIP IS LATE TONIGHT (09-11Z THROUGH 16-18Z) WHEN
GREATEST LIFT IS REALIZED.

ANY LINGERING LIGHT SNOW MONDAY EVENING ENDS AS THE TROUGH MOVES
EAST/ GUSTY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL USHER IN VERY COLD AIR. LOW TEMPS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT SHOULD KEEP THINGS DRY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A
WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES ON WEDNESDAY...WITH A STRONGER SHORTWAVE
APPROACHING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...JUST BEHIND AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT AT
THE SURFACE. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH FORCING WITH THE SHORTWAVES AND
THE FRONT TO PRODUCE ISOLD-SCT -SHSN WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THERE REMAIN MODEL DIFFERENCES FROM THURSDAY ON. BOTH THE ECMWF AND
CMC SUGGEST THAT THE ARCTIC FRONT BECOME AN ANAFRONT WITH SNOW
BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...AND THE CMC GOES FARTHER
AND BRINGS A COASTAL LOW ALONG IT CLOSE ENOUGH TO IMPACT THE AREA.
THE GFS GENERALLY KEEP THINGS DRY THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW
WENT WITH CHANCE POPS ON THURSDAY...EXCEPT SLIGHT CHANCE FAR N
TIER...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THURSDAY NIGHT...EXCEPT DRY FAR NNW
TIER OF THE CWA.

ALL MODELS AGREE SHOULD BE DRY FRIDAY-SATURDAY ON NW FLOW ALOFT.

MAIN STORY OF THE EXTENDED WILL BE BITTERLY COLD AIR ARRIVING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGHS WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S AND LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WIND
CHILLS SHOULD BE BELOW ZERO THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING...AND
POSSIBLY BE NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER NW INTERIOR ZONES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
**HIGH IMPACT EVENT TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY**

HIGH PRES SOUTH OF THE AREA WEAKENS AND MOVES OFFSHORE TODAY. LOW
PRES OVER THE MIDWEST MOVES EAST TODAY...AND A WARM FRONT
EXTENDING AHEAD OF THE LOW PUSHES INTO THE TERMINALS FROM WEST TO
EAST BY THIS EVENING. LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT STEADY AND MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW PUSHES INTO
WESTERN TERMINALS FROM 02-04Z MONDAY AND INTO EASTERN TERMINALS
FROM 03-05Z.

SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

FOR THE 30 HR TAFS...SNOW WILL MIX WITH FREEZING RAIN MONDAY
MORNING...AND SNOW/FREEZING RAIN WILL LIFT TO THE NORTH THROUGHOUT
THE MORNING.

WEST WINDS 10 KT OR LESS TODAY WILL BECOME LGT/VRB THIS EVENING.
LATER TONIGHT...EAST WINDS INCREASE TO 10-15 KT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.MONDAY...SNOW BECOMES A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN
FOR ALL BUT KSWF...WHICH WILL REMAIN ALL SNOW FOR THE EVENT.
RUNWAY ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM 3-5" FOR KJFK/KISP...6-8" FOR
KLGA/KEWR/KTEB/KHPN/KBDR/KGON...AND UP TO 12" FOR KSWF. IN
ADDITION...UP TO 1/4" ICE POSSIBLE FOR ALL BUT KSWF. PRECIP
CHANGES BACK TO ALL SNOW THROUGHOUT MONDAY EVENING BEFORE ENDING.
N WINDS 10-15 KT WITH 20-25 KT GUSTS.
.MONDAY NIGHT...ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS END...AND CONDS IMPROVE
TO VFR. NW WINDS 15-20 KT WITH 25-35 KT GUSTS.
.TUESDAY...VFR.
.WEDNESDAY...VFR. A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOCALLY MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS.
.THURSDAY...VFR. NW GUSTS 20 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS HAVE FALLEN BELOW SCA LEVELS ON THE COASTAL OCEAN
WATERS. THE REGION WILL BE UNDER A RELATIVELY RELAXED PRESSURE
GRADIENT THROUGH THIS EVENING...SO SUB-SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED.

WINDS INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ON ALL WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT
AND PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY...SO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
HOISTED ACCORDINGLY. GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ARE PROBABLE MONDAY NIGHT
ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS...SO A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED THEN
FOR THOSE WATERS. FOR THE NON-OCEAN WATERS...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...SO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THESE
WATERS LAST THROUGH THEN. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR GALE FORCE
WIND GUSTS ON THE NON-OCEAN WATERS AS WELL MONDAY NIGHT.

SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ON ALL WATERS
TUESDAY...AND POSSIBLY GALE FORCE WINDS GUSTS IN THE MORNING ON THE
COASTAL OCEAN WATERS. CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH
FOR ANY HEADLINES ON TUESDAY YET.

SUB-SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE NON-OCEAN WATERS
TUESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY WITH WINDS 15 KT OR LESS. ON THE OCEAN WATERS
SMALL CRAFT LEVEL SEAS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE TIME FRAME...WITH
THE BEST CHANCE WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY THOUGH A COMBINATION OF WINDS
JUST UNDER SMALL CRAFT LEVELS AND SWELLS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GENERALLY 1 TO 1 1/2 INCHES OF LIQUID FORECAST WITH THE SYSTEM
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. MOST OF THIS WILL BE SNOW AND SLEET
ACROSS NE NJ...LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND CT.

ACROSS LI/NYC THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF HEAVY
RAIN. AS SUCH...URBAN FLOODING ISSUES ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
DUE TO CLOGGED SNOW COVERED DRAINS.

NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PCPN IS FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT FOR THE HIGH TIDE ON MONDAY...THAT
DEPARTURES WILL REMAIN 1 TO 1.5 FEET BELOW THAT REQUIRED FOR COASTAL
FLOODING. WITH DEPARTURES OF 1.5-2 FT REQUIRED AND ONLY .5 TO 1 FT
DEPARTURES CURRENTLY FORECAST.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR NYZ079>081-179.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR NYZ067>075-078-176>178.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345.
     GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/PW
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/PW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...











000
FXUS61 KOKX 011152
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
652 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
TO THE NORTH. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT
AND PASSES JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND MONDAY. THE LOW TRACKS WELL
TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. AN ARCTIC FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY...THEN PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS HIGH
BUILDS TO THE SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTH ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK RIDGING ALOFT AHEAD OF UPSTREAM TROUGH CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY.
MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND LIFT ALONG
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE SOUTH...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. IN
BETWEEN...FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSES THROUGH AND REMAINS TO THE SOUTH
TODAY.

CHILLY MORNING TEMPS WILL RISE TO AROUND OR INTO THE LOWER 30S TODAY
PER MOS BLEND.

MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY...ALTHOUGH A FEW SNOW FLAKES MAY BE
OBSERVED LATE FOR WESTERN SECTIONS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND IN
RESPONSE TO WEAK LIFT IN WARM AIR ADVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
CHALLENGING WINTER FORECAST...WITH MIXED PRECIPITATION TYPE TO DEAL
WITH THIS TIME FRAME.

A SLIGHT NORTHWARD TREND TO THE SFC LOW TRACK IS NOTED.

STRONG LIFT AHEAD OF TROUGH...WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE TAPPED IN FROM
THE SOUTH...WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A HEAVY PRECIP EVENT.
ANALYSIS OF 00Z NWP SUITE INDICATES MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES QUICKLY ACROSS THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY THIS
EVENING...TRACKING TOWARD THE EAST COAST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
SURFACE LOW ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
EVENING MOVES EAST TRACKING ACROSS SRN PA TOWARD THE SRN OR
CENTRAL NJ COAST EARLY MONDAY. THE LOW TRACKS JUST SOUTH MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH BY MONDAY EVENING...WITH
SFC LOW TRACKING WELL TO THE EAST.

VERY TOUGH FORECAST FOR MULTIPLE REASONS. MODELS DO INDICATE LOW
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURRING AS H8 LOW TRACKS OVER OR JUST
NORTH OF NYC. AT THE SURFACE...WINDS REMAIN GENERALLY FROM THE EAST
TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE LOW AND TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

BY MONDAY...ENOUGH WARM AIR ALOFT MOVES IN...WITH NAM AND ECMWF
FAIRLY CLOSE WITH REGARD TO TEMPS ALOFT. GFS IS SLIGHTLY WARMER.
LOOKING AT SFC AND BOUNDARY LAYER...FOLLOWED A GRIDDED MOS...NAM
DOWNSCALE BLEND FOR SLOW WARMING IN EAST FLOW...MAINLY FOR EASTERN
LONG ISLAND AND POSSIBLY INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN LONG ISLAND AND
SRN PORTIONS OF NYC.

INTERESTINGLY...HIGH RES ARW AND NMM TRACK THE LOW JUST
SOUTH...BUT PROG THE COASTAL FRONT ACROSS LONG ISLAND...WHICH
SETS UP A LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT.
TEMPS IN THE 40S AS WINDS TURN SOUTH. THIS OBVIOUSLY WOULD BE
PROBLEMATIC AND WOULD REQUIRE A HUGE SHIFT IN THE FORECAST.
AGAIN...WILL FOLLOW THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF IN KEEPING THE LOW AND CSTL
FRONT JUST SOUTH...BUT WARMING EAST END OF LI AND SRN LI
SUFFICIENTLY TO RESULT IN RAIN. ACROSS THE INTERIOR...ENOUGH WARM
AIR ALOFT FOR SNOW MIXING WITH SLEET AND FREEZING
RAIN...STRETCHING SW TO NE ACROSS THE AREA.

GIVEN COLD WATER TEMPS...WOULD BELIEVE TEMPS DO NOT RISE MUCH
ABOVE 32 FOR LONG ISLAND AND INTO NYC. WILL CONVERT THE WATCHES TO
WARNINGS...EXCEPT EASTERN LONG ISLAND...SOUTHERN SUFFOLK AND
SOUTHERN NASSAU. GIVEN THE HIGH LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY...WILL ALLOW
THE DAY SHIFT ONE MORE LOOK TO DETERMINE CONVERSION TO WARNINGS OR
TO ADVISORIES. ANY FURTHER NORTH SHIFT TO SFC LOW AND H8 LOW WOULD
RESULT IN MORE LIQUID.

IN ADDITION...FREEZING RAIN A CONCERN FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA.

THE BOTTOM LINE IS...HIGH IMPACT FOR MORNING COMMUTE WARRANTS A
WARNING FOR MOST OF THE AREA. CLOSER TO THE COAST...SNOW TO
RAIN/FZRA/IP. THEN BACK TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING AS DEFORMATION BAND
MOVES THROUGH ON THE BACK SIDE AS THE LOW DEPARTS LATE IN THE DAY
MONDAY.

INTERIOR...MAINLY SNOW...WITH POSSIBLY SOME SLEET MONDAY MORNING.

EASTERN/SRN LONG ISLAND...SNOW TO RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN (DEPENDING
ON THOSE SFC TEMPS)...THEN POSSIBLY BACK TO SNOW.

***IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT MANY COASTAL AREA SNOW TOTAL
 FORECASTS ARE FOR SNOW AHEAD OF WINTRY MIX TRANSITION...AND AFTER
 WINTRY MIX CHANGES BACK TO SNOW. HOWEVER...ANY RAIN WILL LIKELY
 WASH THE SNOW AWAY...LEAVING SLUSHY CONDITIONS AND LOWER TOTALS AS
 A RESULT***

SO...MORNING COMMUTE WILL LIKELY BE A MESS ALL CWA. THE AFTERNOON
COMMUTE WILL LIKELY BE PROBLEMATIC AS WELL FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
ANY LEFTOVER SLUSH WILL FREEZE AS ARCTIC AIR RUSHES BACK IN.
EXPECT ICY CONDITIONS LATE IN THE DAY...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS THAT
CHANGE TO RAIN LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

HEAVIEST PRECIP IS LATE TONIGHT (09-11Z THROUGH 16-18Z) WHEN
GREATEST LIFT IS REALIZED.

ANY LINGERING LIGHT SNOW MONDAY EVENING ENDS AS THE TROUGH MOVES
EAST/ GUSTY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL USHER IN VERY COLD AIR. LOW TEMPS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT SHOULD KEEP THINGS DRY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A
WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES ON WEDNESDAY...WITH A STRONGER SHORTWAVE
APPROACHING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...JUST BEHIND AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT AT
THE SURFACE. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH FORCING WITH THE SHORTWAVES AND
THE FRONT TO PRODUCE ISOLD-SCT -SHSN WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THERE REMAIN MODEL DIFFERENCES FROM THURSDAY ON. BOTH THE ECMWF AND
CMC SUGGEST THAT THE ARCTIC FRONT BECOME AN ANAFRONT WITH SNOW
BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...AND THE CMC GOES FARTHER
AND BRINGS A COASTAL LOW ALONG IT CLOSE ENOUGH TO IMPACT THE AREA.
THE GFS GENERALLY KEEP THINGS DRY THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW
WENT WITH CHANCE POPS ON THURSDAY...EXCEPT SLIGHT CHANCE FAR N
TIER...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THURSDAY NIGHT...EXCEPT DRY FAR NNW
TIER OF THE CWA.

ALL MODELS AGREE SHOULD BE DRY FRIDAY-SATURDAY ON NW FLOW ALOFT.

MAIN STORY OF THE EXTENDED WILL BE BITTERLY COLD AIR ARRIVING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGHS WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S AND LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WIND
CHILLS SHOULD BE BELOW ZERO THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING...AND
POSSIBLY BE NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER NW INTERIOR ZONES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
**HIGH IMPACT EVENT TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY**

HIGH PRES SOUTH OF THE AREA WEAKENS AND MOVES OFFSHORE TODAY. LOW
PRES OVER THE MIDWEST MOVES EAST TODAY...AND A WARM FRONT
EXTENDING AHEAD OF THE LOW PUSHES INTO THE TERMINALS FROM WEST TO
EAST BY THIS EVENING. LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT STEADY AND MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW PUSHES INTO
WESTERN TERMINALS FROM 02-04Z MONDAY AND INTO EASTERN TERMINALS
FROM 03-05Z.

SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

FOR THE 30 HR TAFS...SNOW WILL MIX WITH FREEZING RAIN MONDAY
MORNING...AND SNOW/FREEZING RAIN WILL LIFT TO THE NORTH THROUGHOUT
THE MORNING.

WEST WINDS 10 KT OR LESS TODAY WILL BECOME LGT/VRB THIS EVENING.
LATER TONIGHT...EAST WINDS INCREASE TO 10-15 KT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.MONDAY...SNOW BECOMES A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN
FOR ALL BUT KSWF...WHICH WILL REMAIN ALL SNOW FOR THE EVENT.
RUNWAY ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM 3-5" FOR KJFK/KISP...6-8" FOR
KLGA/KEWR/KTEB/KHPN/KBDR/KGON...AND UP TO 12" FOR KSWF. IN
ADDITION...UP TO 1/4" ICE POSSIBLE FOR ALL BUT KSWF. PRECIP
CHANGES BACK TO ALL SNOW THROUGHOUT MONDAY EVENING BEFORE ENDING.
N WINDS 10-15 KT WITH 20-25 KT GUSTS.
.MONDAY NIGHT...ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS END...AND CONDS IMPROVE
TO VFR. NW WINDS 15-20 KT WITH 25-35 KT GUSTS.
.TUESDAY...VFR.
.WEDNESDAY...VFR. A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOCALLY MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS.
.THURSDAY...VFR. NW GUSTS 20 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS HAVE FALLEN BELOW SCA LEVELS ON THE COASTAL OCEAN
WATERS. THE REGION WILL BE UNDER A RELATIVELY RELAXED PRESSURE
GRADIENT THROUGH THIS EVENING...SO SUB-SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED.

WINDS INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ON ALL WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT
AND PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY...SO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
HOISTED ACCORDINGLY. GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ARE PROBABLE MONDAY NIGHT
ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS...SO A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED THEN
FOR THOSE WATERS. FOR THE NON-OCEAN WATERS...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...SO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THESE
WATERS LAST THROUGH THEN. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR GALE FORCE
WIND GUSTS ON THE NON-OCEAN WATERS AS WELL MONDAY NIGHT.

SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ON ALL WATERS
TUESDAY...AND POSSIBLY GALE FORCE WINDS GUSTS IN THE MORNING ON THE
COASTAL OCEAN WATERS. CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH
FOR ANY HEADLINES ON TUESDAY YET.

SUB-SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE NON-OCEAN WATERS
TUESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY WITH WINDS 15 KT OR LESS. ON THE OCEAN WATERS
SMALL CRAFT LEVEL SEAS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE TIME FRAME...WITH
THE BEST CHANCE WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY THOUGH A COMBINATION OF WINDS
JUST UNDER SMALL CRAFT LEVELS AND SWELLS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GENERALLY 1 TO 1 1/2 INCHES OF LIQUID FORECAST WITH THE SYSTEM
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. MOST OF THIS WILL BE SNOW AND SLEET
ACROSS NE NJ...LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND CT.

ACROSS LI/NYC THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF HEAVY
RAIN. AS SUCH...URBAN FLOODING ISSUES ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
DUE TO CLOGGED SNOW COVERED DRAINS.

NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PCPN IS FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT FOR THE HIGH TIDE ON MONDAY...THAT
DEPARTURES WILL REMAIN 1 TO 1.5 FEET BELOW THAT REQUIRED FOR COASTAL
FLOODING. WITH DEPARTURES OF 1.5-2 FT REQUIRED AND ONLY .5 TO 1 FT
DEPARTURES CURRENTLY FORECAST.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR NYZ079>081-179.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR NYZ067>075-078-176>178.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345.
     GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/PW
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/PW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...










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000
FXUS61 KALY 011131
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
631 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY. IT WILL
NOT BE AS COLD AS SATURDAY...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE
BELOW NORMAL. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT
AND MONDAY WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO THE
AREA. THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEFORE SUNRISE
MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 550 AM EST...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WAS WORKING ITS WAY
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE ADIRONDACKS. HIS MOISTURE STARVED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION TODAY PRODUCING
SOME FLURRIES AHEAD OF IT. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL NEAR
THE PA/MA BORDER AND CNTRL NJ WESTWARD INTO THE MIDWEST/OHIO
VALLEY. A 1030 HPA OR SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL BUILD IN FROM SE OF
JAMES BAY. THE SKIES MAY BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY OVER THE NRN TIER OF
THE FCST AREA. H850 TEMPS FALL TO -10C TO -15C NORTH AND WEST OF
ALBANY...AND -8C TO -10C TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. MAX TEMPS WILL BE
A LITTLE WARMER THAN SATURDAY...BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL BY 5 TO 15
DEGREES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION SOUTH AND EAST AND TEENS TO LOWER 20S TO THE NORTH AND
WEST...WITH SOME SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE SRN DACKS.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE SRN TIER IN THE AFTERNOON...AND
WILL THICKEN AND LOWER TOWARDS 6 PM.  SOME LIGHT OVER RUNNING
SNOWFALL MAY REACH THE SE CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY BTWN 4-6
PM. SOME SLIGHT AND LOW CHC POPS WERE INTRODUCED THERE...BUT A DRY
COLUMN MAY YIELD QUITE A BIT OF VIRGA AT THE ONSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT AND MONDAY A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL EVENT IS
EXPECTED AS A NORTHERN STEAM SHORT WAVE COMBINES WITH SOUTHERN
STREAM MOISTURE. THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEFORE
SUNRISE MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING WITH SNOW
LINGERING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE TAPERING OFF MONDAY EVENING.

ALL OF THE INGREDIENTS ARE IN PLACE FOR A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AS
A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
LATE THIS EVENING TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST LATE TONIGHT AND
THEN PASSES SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND ON MONDAY. THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE ISTENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS OUR REGION AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM WITH SOME FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AT H7 AROUND 18Z ON MONDAY
AND A DECENT THETA E PLUME H10-H8 DURING MONDAY MORNING WHEN THE
SNOW SHOULD BE THE HEAVIEST. PLUME DIAGRAMS FOR ALBANY ARE
CENTERED BTWN 0.6 AND 1.0 INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT. SNOW TO
LIQUID RATIOS SHOULD BE QUITE HIGH FOR THIS STORM GENERALLY IN THE
15-20:1 RANGE. WITH ALL OF THIS TAKEN INTO CONSIDERATION HAVE
UPGRADED THE FINAL FOUR ZONES UP NORTH TO A WARNING SUCH THAT NOW
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IS IN A WARNING. EXPECTED SNOWFALL TOTALS
ARE 6 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES WITH 8 TO 16
INCHES ELSEWHERE. THE HIGHEST TOTALS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL TACONICS...BERKSHIRES AND
SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

BEHIND THIS STORM ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR DESCENDS ACROSS OUR REGION.
THIS ALONG WITH A FRESH SNOW COVER WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO
PLUMMET MONDAY NIGHT. LOWS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DROP TO ZERO OR
BELOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH 10 DEGREES BELOW ZERO AND
COLDER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. WE MAY ONCE AGAIN NEED
WIND CHILL WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING AND HAVE HIGHLIGHTED IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

ON TUESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO OUR REGION AND
THEN PASS TO OUR EAST LATE IN THE DAY. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE VERY COLD WITH READINGS ONLY IN THE TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOW...MAINLY LIGHT...ASSOCIATED WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE
APPROACHING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC
LIFT...PRIMARILY CONFINED TO UPSLOPE-FAVORED AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. ANY ACCUMULATIONS TUESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT...GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH.

THE CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED BETTER DYNAMICS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THU...WITH A LIGHT SNOWFALL
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. EXACT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE STILL
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...BUT A COUPLE OF INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA IS POSSIBLE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

ONE THING TO KEEP AN EYE ON REGARDING THIS CLIPPER...IS THAT THERE
IS SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR LATER WED INTO THU AS TO WHETHER SOME
SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY/MOISTURE...CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS NW
MEXICO...TRANSLATES NORTHEAST AND BECOMES PARTIALLY PHASED WITH THE
NORTHERN STREAM PV ANOMALY. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...AS THE 00Z/01 ECMWF
AND A FEW GEFS MEMBERS SUGGEST...THAN A MORE PROLONGED PERIOD OF
SNOW...AND POSSIBLY GREATER AMOUNTS COULD RESULT SOMETIME BETWEEN
WED AND EARLY FRI...BUT THIS APPEARS A RATHER LOW PROBABILITY AT
THIS TIME.

ASSUMING THE CLIPPER SYSTEM REMAINS WEAK/PROGRESSIVE AND EXITS TO
THE EAST...AN ARCTIC FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. THIS
ARCTIC FRONT WILL USHER IN ANOTHER BITTERLY COLD AIRMASS ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATER FRI INTO
EARLY SAT WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY
IMPACT THE REGION HEADING INTO LATE SAT AND SUN WITH ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR SOME SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL MODERATE SOMEWHAT INTO THE MID 20S
TO LOW 30S ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM...BUT ONLY
RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO UPPER TEENS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
SOME LOCATIONS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY POSSIBLY REACHING
APPROACHING 20. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE 20S FOR MOST
VALLEY LOCATIONS SATURDAY...WITH TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 5 BELOW ZERO TO 5
ABOVE ZERO...AND ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM NEAR ZERO TO THE SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS TO LOW AND MID TEENS ACROSS
THE CAPITAL REGION...WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MID HUDSON VALLEY.
THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES 5 TO
15 BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE ARCTIC
FRONT. WIND CHILL HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED AS WELL AS A LIGHT
WESTERLY WIND ALLOWS WIND CHILL VALUES TO PLUMMET TO 15 TO 30 BELOW
ZERO. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 5 BELOW ZERO TO
5 ABOVE ZERO...WITH WIND CHILLS GENERALLY 5 BELOW ZERO TO 15 BELOW
ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL PASS SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
CLOUDS...AND A FEW FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF...AND IN THE
VICINITY OF THIS FRONT. THEN...A STORM SYSTEM ORGANIZING OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL TRACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL SPREAD STEADY SNOW FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE TAF SITES
BEGINNING BETWEEN 04Z-07Z/MON.

AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH TODAY...CIGS MAY BRIEFLY DROP INTO THE MVFR
RANGE. ALSO...WHERE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES
OCCUR...VSBYS COULD DIP INTO THE MVFR RANGE...AND EVEN BRIEFLY IFR
AT KPSF.

LATER THIS MORNING...CLOUDS WILL PERSIST AS SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
GETS TRAPPED BENEATH AN INVERSION. AS A RESULT...BKN CIGS AROUND
3500-5000 FT WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
MEANWHILE...MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ALSO INCREASE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE MIDWEST.

AS THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES...WE EXPECT A
STEADY SNOW TO OVERSPREAD THE TAF SITES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
BETWEEN ROUGHLY 04Z-07Z/MON. INITIALLY THE SNOW SHOULD BE FAIRLY
LIGHT...BUT AFTER ABOUT AN HOUR OR TWO OF STARTING...INTENSITY WILL
INCREASE...WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED TO BE FALLING AT
KALB/KPSF/KPOU TOWARD AND ESPECIALLY AFTER 10Z/MON. THE HEAVIER
SNOW MAY NOT REACH KGFL UNTIL CLOSER TO 12Z/MON. EXPECT FLIGHT
CONDITIONS TO RAPIDLY DETERIORATE INTO THE MVFR/IFR RANGE ONCE THE
STEADY SNOW DEVELOPS...WITH WIDESPREAD LIFR DEVELOPING CLOSER TO
10Z-12Z/SUN.

LIGHT WEST WINDS THIS MORNING AT 5-10 KT WILL SHIFT INTO THE
NORTHWEST TO NORTH AS THE FRONT PASSES AT SIMILAR SPEEDS. WINDS
WILL THEN VEER INTO THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST LATER TODAY AND INTO
TONIGHT AT 5-10 KT...BUT SOME GUSTS MAY DEVELOP TOWARD
12Z/MON...ESP AT KALB...WHERE THEY COULD REACH TO AROUND 15-20 KT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO THE AREA.

CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW ICE
TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES AND OTHER BODIES
OF WATER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR NYZ038>041-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR NYZ032-033-042-043.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/11
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...IRL/KL
AVIATION...FRUGIS/KL
HYDROLOGY...11









000
FXUS61 KALY 011131
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
631 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY. IT WILL
NOT BE AS COLD AS SATURDAY...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE
BELOW NORMAL. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT
AND MONDAY WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO THE
AREA. THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEFORE SUNRISE
MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 550 AM EST...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WAS WORKING ITS WAY
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE ADIRONDACKS. HIS MOISTURE STARVED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION TODAY PRODUCING
SOME FLURRIES AHEAD OF IT. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL NEAR
THE PA/MA BORDER AND CNTRL NJ WESTWARD INTO THE MIDWEST/OHIO
VALLEY. A 1030 HPA OR SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL BUILD IN FROM SE OF
JAMES BAY. THE SKIES MAY BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY OVER THE NRN TIER OF
THE FCST AREA. H850 TEMPS FALL TO -10C TO -15C NORTH AND WEST OF
ALBANY...AND -8C TO -10C TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. MAX TEMPS WILL BE
A LITTLE WARMER THAN SATURDAY...BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL BY 5 TO 15
DEGREES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION SOUTH AND EAST AND TEENS TO LOWER 20S TO THE NORTH AND
WEST...WITH SOME SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE SRN DACKS.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE SRN TIER IN THE AFTERNOON...AND
WILL THICKEN AND LOWER TOWARDS 6 PM.  SOME LIGHT OVER RUNNING
SNOWFALL MAY REACH THE SE CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY BTWN 4-6
PM. SOME SLIGHT AND LOW CHC POPS WERE INTRODUCED THERE...BUT A DRY
COLUMN MAY YIELD QUITE A BIT OF VIRGA AT THE ONSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT AND MONDAY A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL EVENT IS
EXPECTED AS A NORTHERN STEAM SHORT WAVE COMBINES WITH SOUTHERN
STREAM MOISTURE. THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEFORE
SUNRISE MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING WITH SNOW
LINGERING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE TAPERING OFF MONDAY EVENING.

ALL OF THE INGREDIENTS ARE IN PLACE FOR A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AS
A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
LATE THIS EVENING TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST LATE TONIGHT AND
THEN PASSES SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND ON MONDAY. THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE ISTENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS OUR REGION AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM WITH SOME FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AT H7 AROUND 18Z ON MONDAY
AND A DECENT THETA E PLUME H10-H8 DURING MONDAY MORNING WHEN THE
SNOW SHOULD BE THE HEAVIEST. PLUME DIAGRAMS FOR ALBANY ARE
CENTERED BTWN 0.6 AND 1.0 INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT. SNOW TO
LIQUID RATIOS SHOULD BE QUITE HIGH FOR THIS STORM GENERALLY IN THE
15-20:1 RANGE. WITH ALL OF THIS TAKEN INTO CONSIDERATION HAVE
UPGRADED THE FINAL FOUR ZONES UP NORTH TO A WARNING SUCH THAT NOW
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IS IN A WARNING. EXPECTED SNOWFALL TOTALS
ARE 6 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES WITH 8 TO 16
INCHES ELSEWHERE. THE HIGHEST TOTALS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL TACONICS...BERKSHIRES AND
SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

BEHIND THIS STORM ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR DESCENDS ACROSS OUR REGION.
THIS ALONG WITH A FRESH SNOW COVER WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO
PLUMMET MONDAY NIGHT. LOWS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DROP TO ZERO OR
BELOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH 10 DEGREES BELOW ZERO AND
COLDER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. WE MAY ONCE AGAIN NEED
WIND CHILL WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING AND HAVE HIGHLIGHTED IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

ON TUESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO OUR REGION AND
THEN PASS TO OUR EAST LATE IN THE DAY. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE VERY COLD WITH READINGS ONLY IN THE TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOW...MAINLY LIGHT...ASSOCIATED WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE
APPROACHING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC
LIFT...PRIMARILY CONFINED TO UPSLOPE-FAVORED AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. ANY ACCUMULATIONS TUESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT...GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH.

THE CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED BETTER DYNAMICS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THU...WITH A LIGHT SNOWFALL
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. EXACT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE STILL
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...BUT A COUPLE OF INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA IS POSSIBLE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

ONE THING TO KEEP AN EYE ON REGARDING THIS CLIPPER...IS THAT THERE
IS SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR LATER WED INTO THU AS TO WHETHER SOME
SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY/MOISTURE...CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS NW
MEXICO...TRANSLATES NORTHEAST AND BECOMES PARTIALLY PHASED WITH THE
NORTHERN STREAM PV ANOMALY. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...AS THE 00Z/01 ECMWF
AND A FEW GEFS MEMBERS SUGGEST...THAN A MORE PROLONGED PERIOD OF
SNOW...AND POSSIBLY GREATER AMOUNTS COULD RESULT SOMETIME BETWEEN
WED AND EARLY FRI...BUT THIS APPEARS A RATHER LOW PROBABILITY AT
THIS TIME.

ASSUMING THE CLIPPER SYSTEM REMAINS WEAK/PROGRESSIVE AND EXITS TO
THE EAST...AN ARCTIC FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. THIS
ARCTIC FRONT WILL USHER IN ANOTHER BITTERLY COLD AIRMASS ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATER FRI INTO
EARLY SAT WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY
IMPACT THE REGION HEADING INTO LATE SAT AND SUN WITH ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR SOME SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL MODERATE SOMEWHAT INTO THE MID 20S
TO LOW 30S ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM...BUT ONLY
RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO UPPER TEENS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
SOME LOCATIONS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY POSSIBLY REACHING
APPROACHING 20. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE 20S FOR MOST
VALLEY LOCATIONS SATURDAY...WITH TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 5 BELOW ZERO TO 5
ABOVE ZERO...AND ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM NEAR ZERO TO THE SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS TO LOW AND MID TEENS ACROSS
THE CAPITAL REGION...WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MID HUDSON VALLEY.
THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES 5 TO
15 BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE ARCTIC
FRONT. WIND CHILL HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED AS WELL AS A LIGHT
WESTERLY WIND ALLOWS WIND CHILL VALUES TO PLUMMET TO 15 TO 30 BELOW
ZERO. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 5 BELOW ZERO TO
5 ABOVE ZERO...WITH WIND CHILLS GENERALLY 5 BELOW ZERO TO 15 BELOW
ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL PASS SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
CLOUDS...AND A FEW FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF...AND IN THE
VICINITY OF THIS FRONT. THEN...A STORM SYSTEM ORGANIZING OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL TRACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL SPREAD STEADY SNOW FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE TAF SITES
BEGINNING BETWEEN 04Z-07Z/MON.

AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH TODAY...CIGS MAY BRIEFLY DROP INTO THE MVFR
RANGE. ALSO...WHERE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES
OCCUR...VSBYS COULD DIP INTO THE MVFR RANGE...AND EVEN BRIEFLY IFR
AT KPSF.

LATER THIS MORNING...CLOUDS WILL PERSIST AS SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
GETS TRAPPED BENEATH AN INVERSION. AS A RESULT...BKN CIGS AROUND
3500-5000 FT WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
MEANWHILE...MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ALSO INCREASE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE MIDWEST.

AS THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES...WE EXPECT A
STEADY SNOW TO OVERSPREAD THE TAF SITES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
BETWEEN ROUGHLY 04Z-07Z/MON. INITIALLY THE SNOW SHOULD BE FAIRLY
LIGHT...BUT AFTER ABOUT AN HOUR OR TWO OF STARTING...INTENSITY WILL
INCREASE...WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED TO BE FALLING AT
KALB/KPSF/KPOU TOWARD AND ESPECIALLY AFTER 10Z/MON. THE HEAVIER
SNOW MAY NOT REACH KGFL UNTIL CLOSER TO 12Z/MON. EXPECT FLIGHT
CONDITIONS TO RAPIDLY DETERIORATE INTO THE MVFR/IFR RANGE ONCE THE
STEADY SNOW DEVELOPS...WITH WIDESPREAD LIFR DEVELOPING CLOSER TO
10Z-12Z/SUN.

LIGHT WEST WINDS THIS MORNING AT 5-10 KT WILL SHIFT INTO THE
NORTHWEST TO NORTH AS THE FRONT PASSES AT SIMILAR SPEEDS. WINDS
WILL THEN VEER INTO THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST LATER TODAY AND INTO
TONIGHT AT 5-10 KT...BUT SOME GUSTS MAY DEVELOP TOWARD
12Z/MON...ESP AT KALB...WHERE THEY COULD REACH TO AROUND 15-20 KT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO THE AREA.

CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW ICE
TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES AND OTHER BODIES
OF WATER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR NYZ038>041-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR NYZ032-033-042-043.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/11
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...IRL/KL
AVIATION...FRUGIS/KL
HYDROLOGY...11










000
FXUS61 KALY 011052
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
552 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY. IT WILL
NOT BE AS COLD AS SATURDAY...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE
BELOW NORMAL. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT
AND MONDAY WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO THE
AREA. THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEFORE SUNRISE
MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 550 AM EST...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WAS WORKING ITS WAY
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE ADIRONDACKS. HIS MOISTURE STARVED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION TODAY PRODUCING
SOME FLURRIES AHEAD OF IT. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL NEAR
THE PA/MA BORDER AND CNTRL NJ WESTWARD INTO THE MIDWEST/OHIO
VALLEY. A 1030 HPA OR SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL BUILD IN FROM SE OF
JAMES BAY. THE SKIES MAY BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY OVER THE NRN TIER OF
THE FCST AREA. H850 TEMPS FALL TO -10C TO -15C NORTH AND WEST OF
ALBANY...AND -8C TO -10C TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. MAX TEMPS WILL BE
A LITTLE WARMER THAN SATURDAY...BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL BY 5 TO 15
DEGREES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION SOUTH AND EAST AND TEENS TO LOWER 20S TO THE NORTH AND
WEST...WITH SOME SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE SRN DACKS.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE SRN TIER IN THE AFTERNOON...AND
WILL THICKEN AND LOWER TOWARDS 6 PM.  SOME LIGHT OVER RUNNING
SNOWFALL MAY REACH THE SE CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY BTWN 4-6
PM. SOME SLIGHT AND LOW CHC POPS WERE INTRODUCED THERE...BUT A DRY
COLUMN MAY YIELD QUITE A BIT OF VIRGA AT THE ONSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT AND MONDAY A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL EVENT IS
EXPECTED AS A NORTHERN STEAM SHORT WAVE COMBINES WITH SOUTHERN
STREAM MOISTURE. THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEFORE
SUNRISE MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING WITH SNOW
LINGERING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE TAPERING OFF MONDAY EVENING.

ALL OF THE INGREDIENTS ARE IN PLACE FOR A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AS
A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
LATE THIS EVENING TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST LATE TONIGHT AND
THEN PASSES SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND ON MONDAY. THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE ISTENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS OUR REGION AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM WITH SOME FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AT H7 AROUND 18Z ON MONDAY
AND A DECENT THETA E PLUME H10-H8 DURING MONDAY MORNING WHEN THE
SNOW SHOULD BE THE HEAVIEST. PLUME DIAGRAMS FOR ALBANY ARE
CENTERED BTWN 0.6 AND 1.0 INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT. SNOW TO
LIQUID RATIOS SHOULD BE QUITE HIGH FOR THIS STORM GENERALLY IN THE
15-20:1 RANGE. WITH ALL OF THIS TAKEN INTO CONSIDERATION HAVE
UPGRADED THE FINAL FOUR ZONES UP NORTH TO A WARNING SUCH THAT NOW
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IS IN A WARNING. EXPECTED SNOWFALL TOTALS
ARE 6 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES WITH 8 TO 16
INCHES ELSEWHERE. THE HIGHEST TOTALS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL TACONICS...BERKSHIRES AND
SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

BEHIND THIS STORM ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR DESCENDS ACROSS OUR REGION.
THIS ALONG WITH A FRESH SNOW COVER WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO
PLUMMET MONDAY NIGHT. LOWS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DROP TO ZERO OR
BELOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH 10 DEGREES BELOW ZERO AND
COLDER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. WE MAY ONCE AGAIN NEED
WIND CHILL WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING AND HAVE HIGHLIGHTED IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

ON TUESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO OUR REGION AND
THEN PASS TO OUR EAST LATE IN THE DAY. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE VERY COLD WITH READINGS ONLY IN THE TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOW...MAINLY LIGHT...ASSOCIATED WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE
APPROACHING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC
LIFT...PRIMARILY CONFINED TO UPSLOPE-FAVORED AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. ANY ACCUMULATIONS TUESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT...GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH.

THE CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED BETTER DYNAMICS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THU...WITH A LIGHT SNOWFALL
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. EXACT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE STILL
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...BUT A COUPLE OF INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA IS POSSIBLE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

ONE THING TO KEEP AN EYE ON REGARDING THIS CLIPPER...IS THAT THERE
IS SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR LATER WED INTO THU AS TO WHETHER SOME
SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY/MOISTURE...CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS NW
MEXICO...TRANSLATES NORTHEAST AND BECOMES PARTIALLY PHASED WITH THE
NORTHERN STREAM PV ANOMALY. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...AS THE 00Z/01 ECMWF
AND A FEW GEFS MEMBERS SUGGEST...THAN A MORE PROLONGED PERIOD OF
SNOW...AND POSSIBLY GREATER AMOUNTS COULD RESULT SOMETIME BETWEEN
WED AND EARLY FRI...BUT THIS APPEARS A RATHER LOW PROBABILITY AT
THIS TIME.

ASSUMING THE CLIPPER SYSTEM REMAINS WEAK/PROGRESSIVE AND EXITS TO
THE EAST...AN ARCTIC FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. THIS
ARCTIC FRONT WILL USHER IN ANOTHER BITTERLY COLD AIRMASS ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATER FRI INTO
EARLY SAT WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY
IMPACT THE REGION HEADING INTO LATE SAT AND SUN WITH ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR SOME SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL MODERATE SOMEWHAT INTO THE MID 20S
TO LOW 30S ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM...BUT ONLY
RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO UPPER TEENS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
SOME LOCATIONS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY POSSIBLY REACHING
APPROACHING 20. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE 20S FOR MOST
VALLEY LOCATIONS SATURDAY...WITH TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 5 BELOW ZERO TO 5
ABOVE ZERO...AND ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM NEAR ZERO TO THE SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS TO LOW AND MID TEENS ACROSS
THE CAPITAL REGION...WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MID HUDSON VALLEY.
THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES 5 TO
15 BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE ARCTIC
FRONT. WIND CHILL HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED AS WELL AS A LIGHT
WESTERLY WIND ALLOWS WIND CHILL VALUES TO PLUMMET TO 15 TO 30 BELOW
ZERO. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 5 BELOW ZERO TO
5 ABOVE ZERO...WITH WIND CHILLS GENERALLY 5 BELOW ZERO TO 15 BELOW
ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...PASSING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
TAF SITES BETWEEN MID MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. CLOUDS...AND A
FEW FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF...AND IN THE VICINITY OF
THIS FRONT. THEN...A STORM SYSTEM ORGANIZING OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL TRACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
SPREAD STEADY SNOW FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE TAF SITES
BEGINNING BETWEEN 03Z-07Z/MON.

LOW CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL OVERSPREAD
KGFL/KALB AND KPSF THROUGH 08Z/SUN...AND MAY REACH KPOU CLOSER TO
08Z-10Z/SUN. SOME FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESP AT KALB AND
KPSF. CIGS SHOULD MAINLY REMAIN VFR WITH BASES OF 3500-5000 FT
AGL...BUT COULD OCCASIONALLY APPROACH MVFR...WITH MVFR CIGS MORE
LIKELY AT KPSF.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY...AS SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED BENEATH AN INVERSION. AS A RESULT...BKN
CIGS AROUND 3500-5000 FT WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
MEANWHILE...MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ALSO INCREASE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE MIDWEST. SNOWFALL ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN AT THE TAF SITES ON SUNDAY
EVENING...BUT WILL LIKELY NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER 03Z MONDAY. LIGHT
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE N-NE WINDS WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT AT SPEEDS OF AROUND 5 KTS.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-MON: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SN.
MON NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
TUE-TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WED-WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO THE AREA.

CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW ICE
TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES AND OTHER BODIES
OF WATER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR NYZ038>041-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR NYZ032-033-042-043.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/11
NEAR TERM...IAA/11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...IRL/KL
AVIATION...FRUGIS/KL
HYDROLOGY...11










000
FXUS61 KALY 011052
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
552 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY. IT WILL
NOT BE AS COLD AS SATURDAY...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE
BELOW NORMAL. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT
AND MONDAY WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO THE
AREA. THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEFORE SUNRISE
MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 550 AM EST...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WAS WORKING ITS WAY
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE ADIRONDACKS. HIS MOISTURE STARVED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION TODAY PRODUCING
SOME FLURRIES AHEAD OF IT. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL NEAR
THE PA/MA BORDER AND CNTRL NJ WESTWARD INTO THE MIDWEST/OHIO
VALLEY. A 1030 HPA OR SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL BUILD IN FROM SE OF
JAMES BAY. THE SKIES MAY BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY OVER THE NRN TIER OF
THE FCST AREA. H850 TEMPS FALL TO -10C TO -15C NORTH AND WEST OF
ALBANY...AND -8C TO -10C TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. MAX TEMPS WILL BE
A LITTLE WARMER THAN SATURDAY...BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL BY 5 TO 15
DEGREES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION SOUTH AND EAST AND TEENS TO LOWER 20S TO THE NORTH AND
WEST...WITH SOME SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE SRN DACKS.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE SRN TIER IN THE AFTERNOON...AND
WILL THICKEN AND LOWER TOWARDS 6 PM.  SOME LIGHT OVER RUNNING
SNOWFALL MAY REACH THE SE CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY BTWN 4-6
PM. SOME SLIGHT AND LOW CHC POPS WERE INTRODUCED THERE...BUT A DRY
COLUMN MAY YIELD QUITE A BIT OF VIRGA AT THE ONSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT AND MONDAY A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL EVENT IS
EXPECTED AS A NORTHERN STEAM SHORT WAVE COMBINES WITH SOUTHERN
STREAM MOISTURE. THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEFORE
SUNRISE MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING WITH SNOW
LINGERING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE TAPERING OFF MONDAY EVENING.

ALL OF THE INGREDIENTS ARE IN PLACE FOR A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AS
A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
LATE THIS EVENING TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST LATE TONIGHT AND
THEN PASSES SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND ON MONDAY. THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE ISTENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS OUR REGION AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM WITH SOME FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AT H7 AROUND 18Z ON MONDAY
AND A DECENT THETA E PLUME H10-H8 DURING MONDAY MORNING WHEN THE
SNOW SHOULD BE THE HEAVIEST. PLUME DIAGRAMS FOR ALBANY ARE
CENTERED BTWN 0.6 AND 1.0 INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT. SNOW TO
LIQUID RATIOS SHOULD BE QUITE HIGH FOR THIS STORM GENERALLY IN THE
15-20:1 RANGE. WITH ALL OF THIS TAKEN INTO CONSIDERATION HAVE
UPGRADED THE FINAL FOUR ZONES UP NORTH TO A WARNING SUCH THAT NOW
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IS IN A WARNING. EXPECTED SNOWFALL TOTALS
ARE 6 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES WITH 8 TO 16
INCHES ELSEWHERE. THE HIGHEST TOTALS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL TACONICS...BERKSHIRES AND
SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

BEHIND THIS STORM ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR DESCENDS ACROSS OUR REGION.
THIS ALONG WITH A FRESH SNOW COVER WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO
PLUMMET MONDAY NIGHT. LOWS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DROP TO ZERO OR
BELOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH 10 DEGREES BELOW ZERO AND
COLDER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. WE MAY ONCE AGAIN NEED
WIND CHILL WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING AND HAVE HIGHLIGHTED IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

ON TUESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO OUR REGION AND
THEN PASS TO OUR EAST LATE IN THE DAY. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE VERY COLD WITH READINGS ONLY IN THE TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOW...MAINLY LIGHT...ASSOCIATED WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE
APPROACHING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC
LIFT...PRIMARILY CONFINED TO UPSLOPE-FAVORED AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. ANY ACCUMULATIONS TUESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT...GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH.

THE CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED BETTER DYNAMICS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THU...WITH A LIGHT SNOWFALL
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. EXACT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE STILL
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...BUT A COUPLE OF INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA IS POSSIBLE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

ONE THING TO KEEP AN EYE ON REGARDING THIS CLIPPER...IS THAT THERE
IS SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR LATER WED INTO THU AS TO WHETHER SOME
SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY/MOISTURE...CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS NW
MEXICO...TRANSLATES NORTHEAST AND BECOMES PARTIALLY PHASED WITH THE
NORTHERN STREAM PV ANOMALY. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...AS THE 00Z/01 ECMWF
AND A FEW GEFS MEMBERS SUGGEST...THAN A MORE PROLONGED PERIOD OF
SNOW...AND POSSIBLY GREATER AMOUNTS COULD RESULT SOMETIME BETWEEN
WED AND EARLY FRI...BUT THIS APPEARS A RATHER LOW PROBABILITY AT
THIS TIME.

ASSUMING THE CLIPPER SYSTEM REMAINS WEAK/PROGRESSIVE AND EXITS TO
THE EAST...AN ARCTIC FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. THIS
ARCTIC FRONT WILL USHER IN ANOTHER BITTERLY COLD AIRMASS ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATER FRI INTO
EARLY SAT WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY
IMPACT THE REGION HEADING INTO LATE SAT AND SUN WITH ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR SOME SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL MODERATE SOMEWHAT INTO THE MID 20S
TO LOW 30S ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM...BUT ONLY
RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO UPPER TEENS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
SOME LOCATIONS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY POSSIBLY REACHING
APPROACHING 20. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE 20S FOR MOST
VALLEY LOCATIONS SATURDAY...WITH TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 5 BELOW ZERO TO 5
ABOVE ZERO...AND ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM NEAR ZERO TO THE SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS TO LOW AND MID TEENS ACROSS
THE CAPITAL REGION...WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MID HUDSON VALLEY.
THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES 5 TO
15 BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE ARCTIC
FRONT. WIND CHILL HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED AS WELL AS A LIGHT
WESTERLY WIND ALLOWS WIND CHILL VALUES TO PLUMMET TO 15 TO 30 BELOW
ZERO. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 5 BELOW ZERO TO
5 ABOVE ZERO...WITH WIND CHILLS GENERALLY 5 BELOW ZERO TO 15 BELOW
ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...PASSING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
TAF SITES BETWEEN MID MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. CLOUDS...AND A
FEW FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF...AND IN THE VICINITY OF
THIS FRONT. THEN...A STORM SYSTEM ORGANIZING OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL TRACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
SPREAD STEADY SNOW FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE TAF SITES
BEGINNING BETWEEN 03Z-07Z/MON.

LOW CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL OVERSPREAD
KGFL/KALB AND KPSF THROUGH 08Z/SUN...AND MAY REACH KPOU CLOSER TO
08Z-10Z/SUN. SOME FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESP AT KALB AND
KPSF. CIGS SHOULD MAINLY REMAIN VFR WITH BASES OF 3500-5000 FT
AGL...BUT COULD OCCASIONALLY APPROACH MVFR...WITH MVFR CIGS MORE
LIKELY AT KPSF.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY...AS SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED BENEATH AN INVERSION. AS A RESULT...BKN
CIGS AROUND 3500-5000 FT WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
MEANWHILE...MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ALSO INCREASE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE MIDWEST. SNOWFALL ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN AT THE TAF SITES ON SUNDAY
EVENING...BUT WILL LIKELY NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER 03Z MONDAY. LIGHT
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE N-NE WINDS WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT AT SPEEDS OF AROUND 5 KTS.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-MON: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SN.
MON NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
TUE-TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WED-WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO THE AREA.

CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW ICE
TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES AND OTHER BODIES
OF WATER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR NYZ038>041-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR NYZ032-033-042-043.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/11
NEAR TERM...IAA/11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...IRL/KL
AVIATION...FRUGIS/KL
HYDROLOGY...11









000
FXUS61 KBOX 011020
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
520 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT THE REGION VERY LATER TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY EVENING WITH HEAVY SNOW FOR MANY LOCATIONS. BITTERLY
COLD WIND CHILLS FOLLOW LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
MODERATING TEMPS WEDNESDAY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME LIGHT SNOW
THEN VERY COLD CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
A COASTAL STORM WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE
WEEK BUT WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ARCTIC FRONT APPROACHING THE CANADIAN BORDER WILL DROP SOUTH
ACROSS NEW ENG TODAY MOVING ACROSS SNE THIS AFTERNOON AND REACHING
THE SOUTH COAST TOWARD EVENING. MODELS INDICATE SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TODAY WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME LOWER CLOUDS...OTHERWISE
SUNSHINE FOR MOST AREAS WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING MID/HIGH
CLOUDS DURING THE DAY. MAX TEMPS WILL REACH 25 TO 30 DEGREES BUT
FALL INTO THE TEENS TOWARD EVENING IN FAR N ZONES AS ARCTIC AIR
DRAINS SOUTH. GUSTY WINDS ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS WILL
DIMINISH...OTHERWISE GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAJOR WINTER STORM VERY LATE TONIGHT INTO MON EVENING
* HEAVY SNOWFALL EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE REGION
* BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY IS SNOWFALL AMTS ACROSS RI AND SE MA DUE TO
  PTYPE ISSUES

OVERVIEW...

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A PROGRESSIVE BUT RATHER POTENT
MID LEVEL TROF WHICH MOVES EAST INTO SNE MON AND BECOMES
NEGATIVELY TILTED. THE SFC LOW TRACKS EAST FROM THE OH VALLEY AND
APPEARS TO JUMP/REDEVELOP ALONG THE MID ATLC COAST...TRACKING NEAR
OR JUST S OF LONG ISLAND TO ACK DURING MONDAY. WITH ARCTIC HIGH
IN PLACE TO THE NORTH...PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL COLD AIR IN PLACE BUT
WARMING ALOFT WILL MAKE FOR A TRICKY SNOWFALL FORECAST NEAR THE S
COAST. GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON QPF WITH 0.75-1.00" WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS ACROSS SE NEW ENG...BUT THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES WITH
THE THERMAL PROFILE. NAM IS THE COLDEST BUT LIKELY A RESULT OF IT
BEING FASTER WITH THE SFC LOW. GFS HAS TRENDED A BIT COLDER WHILE
ECMWF A BIT WARMER AND ONLY MINOR DIFFERENCES EXIST ALOFT. GIVEN
STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT ALL MODELS SHOW WARMING IN THE 850-700 MB
LAYER MOVING NORTH ALONG THE SNE COAST DURING MON. THE UNCERTAINTY
FOR THE SNOWFALL FORECAST IS DETERMINING HOW FAR N THE MIX LINE
GETS.

SYSTEM REMAINS AN OPEN WAVE AT 700 MB AS IT CROSSES CENTRAL NEW
ENG LATE MON SO NOT LOOKING AT TYPICAL BANDING SIGNAL ASSOCD WITH
STRONG MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. THIS WILL BE A CLASSIC STRONG
OVERRUNNING EVENT AS MILDER AIR AND MOISTURE OVERRUNS VERY STRONG
LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS SNE WITH ARCTIC TO THE NORTH.

1) TIMING AND PTYPE

SNOW DEVELOPS IN THE CT VALLEY BY MIDNIGHT THEN QUICKLY
OVERSPREADS THE REST OF SNE THROUGH DAYBREAK. THE SNOW WILL
QUICKLY BECOME HEAVY LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AND WILL
HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE MORNING COMMUTE. GOOD SNOW
GROWTH AROUND 12Z AND STRONG MID LEVEL OMEGA WILL RESULT IN A
GOOD FRONT END THUMP WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR
ACROSS THE REGION FOR SEVERAL HOURS IN THE MORNING.

THE UNCERTAINTY INCREASES CLOSER TO THE S COAST MID/LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON AS WARMER AIR ALOFT SURGES NORTHWARD. WE
BLENDED THE MODELS WHICH SUGGEST A MIX OR CHANGE TO SLEET BRIEFLY
GETTING TO MA/N RI BORDER BY MIDDAY BEFORE COLLAPSING SE DURING
THE AFTERNOON. FURTHER S...DEEPER WARM LAYER WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND POSSIBLY SOME
RAIN AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS. A CHANGE TO PLAIN RAIN IS MOST
LIKELY OVER THE ISLANDS. ANY RAIN OR MIXED PRECIP WILL CHANGE BACK
TO SNOW MID/LATE AFTERNOON BUT NOT UNTIL EVENING FOR THE
OUTER/CAPE ISLANDS.

THIS IS STILL A VERY TRICKY PTYPE FORECAST DUE TO THE STRONG
LOW/MID LEVEL TEMP GRADIENT SO PTYPE WILL BE VERY SENSITIVE TO
JUST A MINOR SHIFT IN THE SFC AND 850 MB LOW TRACK.

SNOWFALL IN THE AFTERNOON WILL NOT BE AS HEAVY AS THE MORNING AS
BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT WEAKENS AND SNOW GROWTH NOT QUITE AS
FAVORABLE...BUT STILL SOME DECENT SNOWFALL ESPECIALLY IN THE
NORTH.

2) SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS AND HEADLINES

WE HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN HEAVY SNOWFALL FOR MUCH OF THE REGION
WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW LIKELY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE
WHERE DEFINITELY NO MIXING ISSUES. EXPECT SNOW ACCUM AROUND A
FOOT FOR THIS REGION...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS AROUND 6 TO 10 INCHES
FURTHER S ACROSS RI AND SE MA DUE TO MIXING ISSUES. WE HAVE ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE FOR UP TO 6 INCHES NEAR THE S COAST TO UPGRADE TO A
WARNING. IN ADDITION THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR UP TO A TENTH OF AN
INCH OF ICE ACCRETION NEAR THE COAST. AMOUNTS MAY FALL SHORT OF 6
INCHES ON CAPE COD...BUT WE INCLUDED THEM IN THE WARNING DUE TO
COMBINATION OF SNOW AND SOME ICE.

FOR THE ISLANDS...WE WILL GO WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
ACCUM 2 TO 5 INCHES...LEAST ON NANTUCKET.

3) STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW

NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH EXPECTED ALONG THE EASTERN
MASS COAST MONDAY AS STORM INTENSIFIES AND PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES. THIS WILL RESULT IN POOR VISIBILITY ALONG WITH BLOWING
AND DRIFTING SNOW. ITS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW LOCATIONS ALONG THE
COAST COULD SEE NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FOR A VERY SHORT
TIME...BUT STORM DOESN/T SEEM TO WARRANT THOSE TYPE OF HEADLINES.

4) TEMPS

A VERY STRONG COASTAL FRONT WILL SET UP DURING MONDAY WITH TEMPS
IN THE TEENS NORTH OF I-84 TO I-90 CORRIDOR AND WEST OF I-495
WITH EVEN SOME SINGLE NUMBERS FAR N/NW MA...WHILE TEMPS WILL REACH
THE LOWER TO MID 30S SE MA. A FLASH FREEZE IS LIKELY ACROSS SE
COASTAL MA AND CAPE/ISLANDS IN THE EVENING AS THE COASTAL FRONT
MOVES THROUGH AND TEMPS PLUMMET.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK INTO
  THE WEEKEND
* MAY SEE A BRIEF BREAK OF THE COLD TEMPS AROUND MID WEEK AS HIGH
  PRES MOVES S OF THE REGION
* CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WED
  NIGHT/THU WITH A COLD FRONT LATE THU

OVERVIEW...

00Z MODEL SUITE AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE WITH SIMILAR UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE FOR OVER A
WEEK AT LEAST. NOTING H5 RIDGE BUILDING ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST
WHILE PERSISTENT LONG WAVE TROUGHING REMAINS ACROSS THE EAST WITH
VORTEX CENTERED AROUND HUDSON BAY EARLY THIS WEEK. DOES LOOK LIKE
THIS WILL TEND TO FLATTEN OUT AROUND MID WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE WORKS OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA ALONG WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE AN
CLIPPER TYPE SURFACE LOW. AS THIS SYSTEM WORKS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND
AROUND WED NIGHT OR THU...DO NOTE SOME MODEL SPREAD IN DIGGING THE
ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE. ALSO...AS THE CLIPPER HEADS TOWARD THE
MARITIMES LATE THIS WEEK IT WILL DEEPEN...WHICH MAY SLOW THE
PASSING COLD FRONT DOWN OFFSHORE AS AN OCEAN LOW APPEARS TO FORM
DOWN THE COAST. SOME AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE ON THE 00Z
CANADIAN GGEM AND ECMWF...BUT IT DOES LOOK TO REMAIN OFFSHORE AT
THIS POINT.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR THIS MORNING/S FORECAST...
WHICH SHOWED GOOD CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

DETAILS...

MONDAY NIGHT...LEFTOVER SNOW WILL END ACROSS THE CT VALLEY EARLY
MON NIGHT...THEN BACK EDGE WILL SHIFT E OVERNIGHT. SOME LIGHT
PRECIP MAY LINGER UNTIL DAYBREAK ACROSS E COASTAL AREAS. VERY COLD
AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WILL LIKELY NEED WIND CHILL
HEADLINES ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

OVERNIGHT LOWS MAY NOT BE QUITE AS COLD AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST
DUE TO LINGERING CLOUDS...BUT WILL STILL SEE SOME LOCATIONS DROP
BELOW ZERO AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...GUSTY NW WINDS WILL LINGER THROUGH AROUND
MIDDAY OR SO ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE STRONG LOW PRES OVER THE
GULF OF ST LAWRENCE. NE-SW ORIENTED HIGH PRES WILL BUILD E DURING
THE DAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE TEENS FOR
MOST AREAS...EXCEPT 20-25 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S COAST...CAPE COD
AND THE ISLANDS.

HIGH PRES RIDGE CRESTS ACROSS THE REGION TUE NIGHT AS LIGHT WINDS
ACTUALLY BACK TO SW. WITH A NEW AND DEEP SNOWPACK THOUGH...LOWS
WILL STILL FALL BACK TO THE SINGLE DIGITS EXCEPT THE TEENS ALONG
THE S COAST. MAY START TO SEE SOME CLOUDS INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT
ACROSS WESTERN AREAS.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...CLIPPER LOW MOVES QUICKLY SE TOWARD THE
REGION. WITH LIGHT SW FLOW IN PLACE...TEMPS MAY ACTUALLY REBOUND
TO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ON WED. HOWEVER...LEADING EDGE OF
PRECIP MAY BRING SCT SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS N AND W MA DURING
THE DAY INTO WED NIGHT AS THE LOW PASSES TO THE N. CURRENT TIMING
OF TRAILING COLD FRONT SUGGESTS PASSAGE DURING THU WITH BEST SHOT
FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. NOT MUCH QPF WITH THIS FEATURE AT THIS
POINT. MAY SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS DURING THU AS ANOTHER
WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT. N WINDS MAY BECOME BLUSTERY
LATE THU/THU NIGHT ALONG THE COAST AS COLDER AIR RETURNS.

FRIDAY...LOOKS TO BE A GENERALLY DRY BUT COLD DAY. MIGHT SEE SOME
LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM.../THROUGH MONDAY/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR...BUT LOW PROB FOR AREAS OF
MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.

VFR THIS EVENING DETERIORATES TO IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS IN MODERATE
TO HEAVY SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT TO DAYBREAK FROM WEST TO EAST.
IFR/LIFR IN MOD/HEAVY SNOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY MON. PTYPE
MAY TRANSITION TO A PERIOD OF SLEET/FREEZING RAIN AROUND MIDDAY
FROM PVD-TAN-PYM SOUTH AND CHANGING TO RAIN OVER THE OUTER
CAPE/ISLANDS. NE WIND GUSTS TO 30-35 KT DEVELOPING ACROSS E
COASTAL MA MONDAY...WITH 25 KT ACROSS RI AND REMAINDER OF E MA.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING OF
IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING OF
IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER IN TIMING.
EXPECT MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS EARLY...THEN SHOULD IMPROVE FROM W-E
DURING THE NIGHT AS PRECIP EXITS. LOWER CONDITIONS MAY LINGER
ACROSS ALONG E COAST THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT. EXPECT N-NW WINDS
GUSTING TO 25-35 KT...HIGHEST ALONG THE COAST.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR ON TUESDAY. NW WIND
GUSTS TO 25-30 KT EARLY ALONG THE COAST.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. COULD SEE SOME MVFR CIGS IN SCT
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS N CENTRAL AND W MA.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. MAY SEE LOCAL MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN SCT SNOW SHOWERS. NW WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT
DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY BUT
EXPECT SCA WAVES TO REMAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT FREEZING
SPRAY WILL PERSIST.

TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS/SEAS QUICKLY RAMP UP DURING MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
INTENSIFIES NEAR THE SOUTH COAST. GALE WATCHES CONTINUE. THE MAIN
FOCUS FOR GUSTS TO 40 KT MONDAY WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN MA COASTAL
WATERS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF CAPE COD...WITH LIGHTER WINDS OVER
THE SOUTH COASTAL WATER. SEAS BUILD TO 15+ FEET ACROSS OUR EASTERN
WATERS BY LATE MON AFTERNOON/EVENING.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT...EXPECT GALE FORCE NW WIND GUSTS. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY WATCH CONTINUES. SEAS BUILD UP TO 9-14 FT ON THE OUTER
WATERS.

TUESDAY...NW GALES LIKELY ALONG WITH FREEZING SPRAY...POSSIBLY
MODERATE TO HEAVY. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH GOOD VSBY EXCEPT
FAR OFFSHORE WHERE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE COMMON.

WEDNESDAY...WINDS EASE AND BECOME SOUTHWEST AS CLIPPER LOW ENTERS
THE GREAT LAKES AND NY STATE. NOT AS COLD SO FREEZING SPRAY
UNLIKELY. VSBYS MAY BRIEFLY LOWER IN A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW.

THURSDAY...COLD FRONT PASSES WITH STRONG SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS.
CHANCE OF LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY LATE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
*** LOW RISK FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING MON NIGHT EASTERN MA
 COASTLINE ***

THE FIRST TIDE CYCLE MONDAY MORNING SHOULD NOT POSE ANY RISKS AS
WINDS WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR A LONG ENOUGH PERIOD OF TIME
TO PRODUCE THE WAVE ACTION OR SURGE NECESSARY FOR COASTAL
FLOODING. A SURGE OF 1 FOOT IS POSSIBLE BUT SEAS WILL BE WELL
UNDER 10 FT.

AS FOR THE MONDAY EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE...ASTRO TIDES ARE ABOUT
1 FT LOWER BUT WAVES WILL BE BUILDING TO 15 TO 20 FT. WE EXPECT
ABOUT A 1.5 TO 2.5 FT STORM SURGE BUT THIS MAY NOT OVERLAP THE
EVENING HIGH TIDE AND MAY OCCUR CLOSER TO LOW TIDE WITH SURGE
VALUES DECREASING TOWARD THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE AS WINDS TURN N.
IF THIS TIMING PLAYS OUT...THE PROBABILITY FOR ANY COASTAL
FLOODING WILL BE LOW. HOWEVER...WE ARE TALKING ABOUT ONLY 6 HOURS
AND IF THE MAX SURGE IS DELAYED AND OVERLAPS THE HIGH TIDE...THERE
WILL BE A HIGHER RISK OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WITH A LOW RISK OF
ISOLD MODERATE FLOODING...MAINLY FROM CAPE COD TO CAPE ANN WITH
PERHAPS THE HIGHEST RISK FROM HULL/COHASSET/SCITUATE/
MARSHFIELD/PLYMOUTH TO SANDWICH HARBOR. AGAIN...THIS WILL DEPEND
OM THE TIMING OF THE MAX SURGE OCCURRING CLOSE TO HIGH TIDE WHICH
DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY AT THIS TIME.

WINDS...SEAS AND STORM SURGE WILL BE CONSIDERABLY LESS THAN THE
PREVIOUS COASTAL STORM BUT THERE COULD STILL BE SOME IMPACT
ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE COMMUNITIES SUCH AS MARSHFIELD MA THAT WERE
HIT HARD EARLIER THIS WEEK WHERE COASTAL STRUCTURES SUCH AS
SEAWALLS WERE DAMAGED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WITH EXTREMELY COLD AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW MONDAY
NIGHT...TEMPERATURES MAY FALL BACK CLOSE TO OR SURPASSING RECORD
LEVELS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

HERE ARE THE RECORD LOWS FOR TUESDAY 2/3...

BOSTON         -5 SET IN 1881
PROVIDENCE     -6 SET IN 1961
WORCESTER      -7 SET IN 1931, 1955 AND 1971
WINDSOR LOCKS  -3 SET IN 1955
BLUE HILL OBS  -7 SET IN 1955

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR MAZ023-024.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR MAZ002>022-026.
RI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR RIZ008.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR RIZ001>007.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ231>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ231-232-251.
     HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR ANZ231>235-237-250-251-254>256.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ231-
     232-250-251-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ233>235-237.
     GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ230-236.
     GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ250-251-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ250-
     254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/EVT
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...KJC/EVT
MARINE...KJC/EVT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...KJC
CLIMATE...STAFF



000
FXUS61 KBOX 011020
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
520 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT THE REGION VERY LATER TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY EVENING WITH HEAVY SNOW FOR MANY LOCATIONS. BITTERLY
COLD WIND CHILLS FOLLOW LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
MODERATING TEMPS WEDNESDAY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME LIGHT SNOW
THEN VERY COLD CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
A COASTAL STORM WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE
WEEK BUT WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ARCTIC FRONT APPROACHING THE CANADIAN BORDER WILL DROP SOUTH
ACROSS NEW ENG TODAY MOVING ACROSS SNE THIS AFTERNOON AND REACHING
THE SOUTH COAST TOWARD EVENING. MODELS INDICATE SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TODAY WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME LOWER CLOUDS...OTHERWISE
SUNSHINE FOR MOST AREAS WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING MID/HIGH
CLOUDS DURING THE DAY. MAX TEMPS WILL REACH 25 TO 30 DEGREES BUT
FALL INTO THE TEENS TOWARD EVENING IN FAR N ZONES AS ARCTIC AIR
DRAINS SOUTH. GUSTY WINDS ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS WILL
DIMINISH...OTHERWISE GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAJOR WINTER STORM VERY LATE TONIGHT INTO MON EVENING
* HEAVY SNOWFALL EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE REGION
* BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY IS SNOWFALL AMTS ACROSS RI AND SE MA DUE TO
  PTYPE ISSUES

OVERVIEW...

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A PROGRESSIVE BUT RATHER POTENT
MID LEVEL TROF WHICH MOVES EAST INTO SNE MON AND BECOMES
NEGATIVELY TILTED. THE SFC LOW TRACKS EAST FROM THE OH VALLEY AND
APPEARS TO JUMP/REDEVELOP ALONG THE MID ATLC COAST...TRACKING NEAR
OR JUST S OF LONG ISLAND TO ACK DURING MONDAY. WITH ARCTIC HIGH
IN PLACE TO THE NORTH...PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL COLD AIR IN PLACE BUT
WARMING ALOFT WILL MAKE FOR A TRICKY SNOWFALL FORECAST NEAR THE S
COAST. GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON QPF WITH 0.75-1.00" WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS ACROSS SE NEW ENG...BUT THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES WITH
THE THERMAL PROFILE. NAM IS THE COLDEST BUT LIKELY A RESULT OF IT
BEING FASTER WITH THE SFC LOW. GFS HAS TRENDED A BIT COLDER WHILE
ECMWF A BIT WARMER AND ONLY MINOR DIFFERENCES EXIST ALOFT. GIVEN
STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT ALL MODELS SHOW WARMING IN THE 850-700 MB
LAYER MOVING NORTH ALONG THE SNE COAST DURING MON. THE UNCERTAINTY
FOR THE SNOWFALL FORECAST IS DETERMINING HOW FAR N THE MIX LINE
GETS.

SYSTEM REMAINS AN OPEN WAVE AT 700 MB AS IT CROSSES CENTRAL NEW
ENG LATE MON SO NOT LOOKING AT TYPICAL BANDING SIGNAL ASSOCD WITH
STRONG MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. THIS WILL BE A CLASSIC STRONG
OVERRUNNING EVENT AS MILDER AIR AND MOISTURE OVERRUNS VERY STRONG
LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS SNE WITH ARCTIC TO THE NORTH.

1) TIMING AND PTYPE

SNOW DEVELOPS IN THE CT VALLEY BY MIDNIGHT THEN QUICKLY
OVERSPREADS THE REST OF SNE THROUGH DAYBREAK. THE SNOW WILL
QUICKLY BECOME HEAVY LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AND WILL
HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE MORNING COMMUTE. GOOD SNOW
GROWTH AROUND 12Z AND STRONG MID LEVEL OMEGA WILL RESULT IN A
GOOD FRONT END THUMP WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR
ACROSS THE REGION FOR SEVERAL HOURS IN THE MORNING.

THE UNCERTAINTY INCREASES CLOSER TO THE S COAST MID/LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON AS WARMER AIR ALOFT SURGES NORTHWARD. WE
BLENDED THE MODELS WHICH SUGGEST A MIX OR CHANGE TO SLEET BRIEFLY
GETTING TO MA/N RI BORDER BY MIDDAY BEFORE COLLAPSING SE DURING
THE AFTERNOON. FURTHER S...DEEPER WARM LAYER WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND POSSIBLY SOME
RAIN AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS. A CHANGE TO PLAIN RAIN IS MOST
LIKELY OVER THE ISLANDS. ANY RAIN OR MIXED PRECIP WILL CHANGE BACK
TO SNOW MID/LATE AFTERNOON BUT NOT UNTIL EVENING FOR THE
OUTER/CAPE ISLANDS.

THIS IS STILL A VERY TRICKY PTYPE FORECAST DUE TO THE STRONG
LOW/MID LEVEL TEMP GRADIENT SO PTYPE WILL BE VERY SENSITIVE TO
JUST A MINOR SHIFT IN THE SFC AND 850 MB LOW TRACK.

SNOWFALL IN THE AFTERNOON WILL NOT BE AS HEAVY AS THE MORNING AS
BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT WEAKENS AND SNOW GROWTH NOT QUITE AS
FAVORABLE...BUT STILL SOME DECENT SNOWFALL ESPECIALLY IN THE
NORTH.

2) SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS AND HEADLINES

WE HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN HEAVY SNOWFALL FOR MUCH OF THE REGION
WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW LIKELY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE
WHERE DEFINITELY NO MIXING ISSUES. EXPECT SNOW ACCUM AROUND A
FOOT FOR THIS REGION...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS AROUND 6 TO 10 INCHES
FURTHER S ACROSS RI AND SE MA DUE TO MIXING ISSUES. WE HAVE ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE FOR UP TO 6 INCHES NEAR THE S COAST TO UPGRADE TO A
WARNING. IN ADDITION THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR UP TO A TENTH OF AN
INCH OF ICE ACCRETION NEAR THE COAST. AMOUNTS MAY FALL SHORT OF 6
INCHES ON CAPE COD...BUT WE INCLUDED THEM IN THE WARNING DUE TO
COMBINATION OF SNOW AND SOME ICE.

FOR THE ISLANDS...WE WILL GO WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
ACCUM 2 TO 5 INCHES...LEAST ON NANTUCKET.

3) STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW

NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH EXPECTED ALONG THE EASTERN
MASS COAST MONDAY AS STORM INTENSIFIES AND PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES. THIS WILL RESULT IN POOR VISIBILITY ALONG WITH BLOWING
AND DRIFTING SNOW. ITS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW LOCATIONS ALONG THE
COAST COULD SEE NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FOR A VERY SHORT
TIME...BUT STORM DOESN/T SEEM TO WARRANT THOSE TYPE OF HEADLINES.

4) TEMPS

A VERY STRONG COASTAL FRONT WILL SET UP DURING MONDAY WITH TEMPS
IN THE TEENS NORTH OF I-84 TO I-90 CORRIDOR AND WEST OF I-495
WITH EVEN SOME SINGLE NUMBERS FAR N/NW MA...WHILE TEMPS WILL REACH
THE LOWER TO MID 30S SE MA. A FLASH FREEZE IS LIKELY ACROSS SE
COASTAL MA AND CAPE/ISLANDS IN THE EVENING AS THE COASTAL FRONT
MOVES THROUGH AND TEMPS PLUMMET.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK INTO
  THE WEEKEND
* MAY SEE A BRIEF BREAK OF THE COLD TEMPS AROUND MID WEEK AS HIGH
  PRES MOVES S OF THE REGION
* CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WED
  NIGHT/THU WITH A COLD FRONT LATE THU

OVERVIEW...

00Z MODEL SUITE AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE WITH SIMILAR UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE FOR OVER A
WEEK AT LEAST. NOTING H5 RIDGE BUILDING ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST
WHILE PERSISTENT LONG WAVE TROUGHING REMAINS ACROSS THE EAST WITH
VORTEX CENTERED AROUND HUDSON BAY EARLY THIS WEEK. DOES LOOK LIKE
THIS WILL TEND TO FLATTEN OUT AROUND MID WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE WORKS OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA ALONG WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE AN
CLIPPER TYPE SURFACE LOW. AS THIS SYSTEM WORKS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND
AROUND WED NIGHT OR THU...DO NOTE SOME MODEL SPREAD IN DIGGING THE
ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE. ALSO...AS THE CLIPPER HEADS TOWARD THE
MARITIMES LATE THIS WEEK IT WILL DEEPEN...WHICH MAY SLOW THE
PASSING COLD FRONT DOWN OFFSHORE AS AN OCEAN LOW APPEARS TO FORM
DOWN THE COAST. SOME AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE ON THE 00Z
CANADIAN GGEM AND ECMWF...BUT IT DOES LOOK TO REMAIN OFFSHORE AT
THIS POINT.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR THIS MORNING/S FORECAST...
WHICH SHOWED GOOD CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

DETAILS...

MONDAY NIGHT...LEFTOVER SNOW WILL END ACROSS THE CT VALLEY EARLY
MON NIGHT...THEN BACK EDGE WILL SHIFT E OVERNIGHT. SOME LIGHT
PRECIP MAY LINGER UNTIL DAYBREAK ACROSS E COASTAL AREAS. VERY COLD
AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WILL LIKELY NEED WIND CHILL
HEADLINES ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

OVERNIGHT LOWS MAY NOT BE QUITE AS COLD AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST
DUE TO LINGERING CLOUDS...BUT WILL STILL SEE SOME LOCATIONS DROP
BELOW ZERO AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...GUSTY NW WINDS WILL LINGER THROUGH AROUND
MIDDAY OR SO ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE STRONG LOW PRES OVER THE
GULF OF ST LAWRENCE. NE-SW ORIENTED HIGH PRES WILL BUILD E DURING
THE DAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE TEENS FOR
MOST AREAS...EXCEPT 20-25 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S COAST...CAPE COD
AND THE ISLANDS.

HIGH PRES RIDGE CRESTS ACROSS THE REGION TUE NIGHT AS LIGHT WINDS
ACTUALLY BACK TO SW. WITH A NEW AND DEEP SNOWPACK THOUGH...LOWS
WILL STILL FALL BACK TO THE SINGLE DIGITS EXCEPT THE TEENS ALONG
THE S COAST. MAY START TO SEE SOME CLOUDS INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT
ACROSS WESTERN AREAS.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...CLIPPER LOW MOVES QUICKLY SE TOWARD THE
REGION. WITH LIGHT SW FLOW IN PLACE...TEMPS MAY ACTUALLY REBOUND
TO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ON WED. HOWEVER...LEADING EDGE OF
PRECIP MAY BRING SCT SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS N AND W MA DURING
THE DAY INTO WED NIGHT AS THE LOW PASSES TO THE N. CURRENT TIMING
OF TRAILING COLD FRONT SUGGESTS PASSAGE DURING THU WITH BEST SHOT
FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. NOT MUCH QPF WITH THIS FEATURE AT THIS
POINT. MAY SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS DURING THU AS ANOTHER
WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT. N WINDS MAY BECOME BLUSTERY
LATE THU/THU NIGHT ALONG THE COAST AS COLDER AIR RETURNS.

FRIDAY...LOOKS TO BE A GENERALLY DRY BUT COLD DAY. MIGHT SEE SOME
LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM.../THROUGH MONDAY/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR...BUT LOW PROB FOR AREAS OF
MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.

VFR THIS EVENING DETERIORATES TO IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS IN MODERATE
TO HEAVY SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT TO DAYBREAK FROM WEST TO EAST.
IFR/LIFR IN MOD/HEAVY SNOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY MON. PTYPE
MAY TRANSITION TO A PERIOD OF SLEET/FREEZING RAIN AROUND MIDDAY
FROM PVD-TAN-PYM SOUTH AND CHANGING TO RAIN OVER THE OUTER
CAPE/ISLANDS. NE WIND GUSTS TO 30-35 KT DEVELOPING ACROSS E
COASTAL MA MONDAY...WITH 25 KT ACROSS RI AND REMAINDER OF E MA.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING OF
IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING OF
IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER IN TIMING.
EXPECT MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS EARLY...THEN SHOULD IMPROVE FROM W-E
DURING THE NIGHT AS PRECIP EXITS. LOWER CONDITIONS MAY LINGER
ACROSS ALONG E COAST THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT. EXPECT N-NW WINDS
GUSTING TO 25-35 KT...HIGHEST ALONG THE COAST.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR ON TUESDAY. NW WIND
GUSTS TO 25-30 KT EARLY ALONG THE COAST.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. COULD SEE SOME MVFR CIGS IN SCT
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS N CENTRAL AND W MA.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. MAY SEE LOCAL MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN SCT SNOW SHOWERS. NW WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT
DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY BUT
EXPECT SCA WAVES TO REMAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT FREEZING
SPRAY WILL PERSIST.

TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS/SEAS QUICKLY RAMP UP DURING MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
INTENSIFIES NEAR THE SOUTH COAST. GALE WATCHES CONTINUE. THE MAIN
FOCUS FOR GUSTS TO 40 KT MONDAY WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN MA COASTAL
WATERS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF CAPE COD...WITH LIGHTER WINDS OVER
THE SOUTH COASTAL WATER. SEAS BUILD TO 15+ FEET ACROSS OUR EASTERN
WATERS BY LATE MON AFTERNOON/EVENING.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT...EXPECT GALE FORCE NW WIND GUSTS. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY WATCH CONTINUES. SEAS BUILD UP TO 9-14 FT ON THE OUTER
WATERS.

TUESDAY...NW GALES LIKELY ALONG WITH FREEZING SPRAY...POSSIBLY
MODERATE TO HEAVY. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH GOOD VSBY EXCEPT
FAR OFFSHORE WHERE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE COMMON.

WEDNESDAY...WINDS EASE AND BECOME SOUTHWEST AS CLIPPER LOW ENTERS
THE GREAT LAKES AND NY STATE. NOT AS COLD SO FREEZING SPRAY
UNLIKELY. VSBYS MAY BRIEFLY LOWER IN A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW.

THURSDAY...COLD FRONT PASSES WITH STRONG SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS.
CHANCE OF LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY LATE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
*** LOW RISK FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING MON NIGHT EASTERN MA
 COASTLINE ***

THE FIRST TIDE CYCLE MONDAY MORNING SHOULD NOT POSE ANY RISKS AS
WINDS WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR A LONG ENOUGH PERIOD OF TIME
TO PRODUCE THE WAVE ACTION OR SURGE NECESSARY FOR COASTAL
FLOODING. A SURGE OF 1 FOOT IS POSSIBLE BUT SEAS WILL BE WELL
UNDER 10 FT.

AS FOR THE MONDAY EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE...ASTRO TIDES ARE ABOUT
1 FT LOWER BUT WAVES WILL BE BUILDING TO 15 TO 20 FT. WE EXPECT
ABOUT A 1.5 TO 2.5 FT STORM SURGE BUT THIS MAY NOT OVERLAP THE
EVENING HIGH TIDE AND MAY OCCUR CLOSER TO LOW TIDE WITH SURGE
VALUES DECREASING TOWARD THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE AS WINDS TURN N.
IF THIS TIMING PLAYS OUT...THE PROBABILITY FOR ANY COASTAL
FLOODING WILL BE LOW. HOWEVER...WE ARE TALKING ABOUT ONLY 6 HOURS
AND IF THE MAX SURGE IS DELAYED AND OVERLAPS THE HIGH TIDE...THERE
WILL BE A HIGHER RISK OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WITH A LOW RISK OF
ISOLD MODERATE FLOODING...MAINLY FROM CAPE COD TO CAPE ANN WITH
PERHAPS THE HIGHEST RISK FROM HULL/COHASSET/SCITUATE/
MARSHFIELD/PLYMOUTH TO SANDWICH HARBOR. AGAIN...THIS WILL DEPEND
OM THE TIMING OF THE MAX SURGE OCCURRING CLOSE TO HIGH TIDE WHICH
DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY AT THIS TIME.

WINDS...SEAS AND STORM SURGE WILL BE CONSIDERABLY LESS THAN THE
PREVIOUS COASTAL STORM BUT THERE COULD STILL BE SOME IMPACT
ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE COMMUNITIES SUCH AS MARSHFIELD MA THAT WERE
HIT HARD EARLIER THIS WEEK WHERE COASTAL STRUCTURES SUCH AS
SEAWALLS WERE DAMAGED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WITH EXTREMELY COLD AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW MONDAY
NIGHT...TEMPERATURES MAY FALL BACK CLOSE TO OR SURPASSING RECORD
LEVELS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

HERE ARE THE RECORD LOWS FOR TUESDAY 2/3...

BOSTON         -5 SET IN 1881
PROVIDENCE     -6 SET IN 1961
WORCESTER      -7 SET IN 1931, 1955 AND 1971
WINDSOR LOCKS  -3 SET IN 1955
BLUE HILL OBS  -7 SET IN 1955

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR MAZ023-024.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR MAZ002>022-026.
RI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR RIZ008.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR RIZ001>007.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ231>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ231-232-251.
     HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR ANZ231>235-237-250-251-254>256.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ231-
     232-250-251-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ233>235-237.
     GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ230-236.
     GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ250-251-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ250-
     254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/EVT
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...KJC/EVT
MARINE...KJC/EVT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...KJC
CLIMATE...STAFF



000
FXUS61 KBOX 011020
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
520 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT THE REGION VERY LATER TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY EVENING WITH HEAVY SNOW FOR MANY LOCATIONS. BITTERLY
COLD WIND CHILLS FOLLOW LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
MODERATING TEMPS WEDNESDAY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME LIGHT SNOW
THEN VERY COLD CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
A COASTAL STORM WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE
WEEK BUT WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ARCTIC FRONT APPROACHING THE CANADIAN BORDER WILL DROP SOUTH
ACROSS NEW ENG TODAY MOVING ACROSS SNE THIS AFTERNOON AND REACHING
THE SOUTH COAST TOWARD EVENING. MODELS INDICATE SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TODAY WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME LOWER CLOUDS...OTHERWISE
SUNSHINE FOR MOST AREAS WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING MID/HIGH
CLOUDS DURING THE DAY. MAX TEMPS WILL REACH 25 TO 30 DEGREES BUT
FALL INTO THE TEENS TOWARD EVENING IN FAR N ZONES AS ARCTIC AIR
DRAINS SOUTH. GUSTY WINDS ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS WILL
DIMINISH...OTHERWISE GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAJOR WINTER STORM VERY LATE TONIGHT INTO MON EVENING
* HEAVY SNOWFALL EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE REGION
* BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY IS SNOWFALL AMTS ACROSS RI AND SE MA DUE TO
  PTYPE ISSUES

OVERVIEW...

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A PROGRESSIVE BUT RATHER POTENT
MID LEVEL TROF WHICH MOVES EAST INTO SNE MON AND BECOMES
NEGATIVELY TILTED. THE SFC LOW TRACKS EAST FROM THE OH VALLEY AND
APPEARS TO JUMP/REDEVELOP ALONG THE MID ATLC COAST...TRACKING NEAR
OR JUST S OF LONG ISLAND TO ACK DURING MONDAY. WITH ARCTIC HIGH
IN PLACE TO THE NORTH...PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL COLD AIR IN PLACE BUT
WARMING ALOFT WILL MAKE FOR A TRICKY SNOWFALL FORECAST NEAR THE S
COAST. GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON QPF WITH 0.75-1.00" WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS ACROSS SE NEW ENG...BUT THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES WITH
THE THERMAL PROFILE. NAM IS THE COLDEST BUT LIKELY A RESULT OF IT
BEING FASTER WITH THE SFC LOW. GFS HAS TRENDED A BIT COLDER WHILE
ECMWF A BIT WARMER AND ONLY MINOR DIFFERENCES EXIST ALOFT. GIVEN
STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT ALL MODELS SHOW WARMING IN THE 850-700 MB
LAYER MOVING NORTH ALONG THE SNE COAST DURING MON. THE UNCERTAINTY
FOR THE SNOWFALL FORECAST IS DETERMINING HOW FAR N THE MIX LINE
GETS.

SYSTEM REMAINS AN OPEN WAVE AT 700 MB AS IT CROSSES CENTRAL NEW
ENG LATE MON SO NOT LOOKING AT TYPICAL BANDING SIGNAL ASSOCD WITH
STRONG MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. THIS WILL BE A CLASSIC STRONG
OVERRUNNING EVENT AS MILDER AIR AND MOISTURE OVERRUNS VERY STRONG
LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS SNE WITH ARCTIC TO THE NORTH.

1) TIMING AND PTYPE

SNOW DEVELOPS IN THE CT VALLEY BY MIDNIGHT THEN QUICKLY
OVERSPREADS THE REST OF SNE THROUGH DAYBREAK. THE SNOW WILL
QUICKLY BECOME HEAVY LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AND WILL
HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE MORNING COMMUTE. GOOD SNOW
GROWTH AROUND 12Z AND STRONG MID LEVEL OMEGA WILL RESULT IN A
GOOD FRONT END THUMP WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR
ACROSS THE REGION FOR SEVERAL HOURS IN THE MORNING.

THE UNCERTAINTY INCREASES CLOSER TO THE S COAST MID/LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON AS WARMER AIR ALOFT SURGES NORTHWARD. WE
BLENDED THE MODELS WHICH SUGGEST A MIX OR CHANGE TO SLEET BRIEFLY
GETTING TO MA/N RI BORDER BY MIDDAY BEFORE COLLAPSING SE DURING
THE AFTERNOON. FURTHER S...DEEPER WARM LAYER WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND POSSIBLY SOME
RAIN AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS. A CHANGE TO PLAIN RAIN IS MOST
LIKELY OVER THE ISLANDS. ANY RAIN OR MIXED PRECIP WILL CHANGE BACK
TO SNOW MID/LATE AFTERNOON BUT NOT UNTIL EVENING FOR THE
OUTER/CAPE ISLANDS.

THIS IS STILL A VERY TRICKY PTYPE FORECAST DUE TO THE STRONG
LOW/MID LEVEL TEMP GRADIENT SO PTYPE WILL BE VERY SENSITIVE TO
JUST A MINOR SHIFT IN THE SFC AND 850 MB LOW TRACK.

SNOWFALL IN THE AFTERNOON WILL NOT BE AS HEAVY AS THE MORNING AS
BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT WEAKENS AND SNOW GROWTH NOT QUITE AS
FAVORABLE...BUT STILL SOME DECENT SNOWFALL ESPECIALLY IN THE
NORTH.

2) SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS AND HEADLINES

WE HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN HEAVY SNOWFALL FOR MUCH OF THE REGION
WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW LIKELY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE
WHERE DEFINITELY NO MIXING ISSUES. EXPECT SNOW ACCUM AROUND A
FOOT FOR THIS REGION...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS AROUND 6 TO 10 INCHES
FURTHER S ACROSS RI AND SE MA DUE TO MIXING ISSUES. WE HAVE ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE FOR UP TO 6 INCHES NEAR THE S COAST TO UPGRADE TO A
WARNING. IN ADDITION THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR UP TO A TENTH OF AN
INCH OF ICE ACCRETION NEAR THE COAST. AMOUNTS MAY FALL SHORT OF 6
INCHES ON CAPE COD...BUT WE INCLUDED THEM IN THE WARNING DUE TO
COMBINATION OF SNOW AND SOME ICE.

FOR THE ISLANDS...WE WILL GO WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
ACCUM 2 TO 5 INCHES...LEAST ON NANTUCKET.

3) STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW

NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH EXPECTED ALONG THE EASTERN
MASS COAST MONDAY AS STORM INTENSIFIES AND PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES. THIS WILL RESULT IN POOR VISIBILITY ALONG WITH BLOWING
AND DRIFTING SNOW. ITS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW LOCATIONS ALONG THE
COAST COULD SEE NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FOR A VERY SHORT
TIME...BUT STORM DOESN/T SEEM TO WARRANT THOSE TYPE OF HEADLINES.

4) TEMPS

A VERY STRONG COASTAL FRONT WILL SET UP DURING MONDAY WITH TEMPS
IN THE TEENS NORTH OF I-84 TO I-90 CORRIDOR AND WEST OF I-495
WITH EVEN SOME SINGLE NUMBERS FAR N/NW MA...WHILE TEMPS WILL REACH
THE LOWER TO MID 30S SE MA. A FLASH FREEZE IS LIKELY ACROSS SE
COASTAL MA AND CAPE/ISLANDS IN THE EVENING AS THE COASTAL FRONT
MOVES THROUGH AND TEMPS PLUMMET.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK INTO
  THE WEEKEND
* MAY SEE A BRIEF BREAK OF THE COLD TEMPS AROUND MID WEEK AS HIGH
  PRES MOVES S OF THE REGION
* CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WED
  NIGHT/THU WITH A COLD FRONT LATE THU

OVERVIEW...

00Z MODEL SUITE AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE WITH SIMILAR UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE FOR OVER A
WEEK AT LEAST. NOTING H5 RIDGE BUILDING ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST
WHILE PERSISTENT LONG WAVE TROUGHING REMAINS ACROSS THE EAST WITH
VORTEX CENTERED AROUND HUDSON BAY EARLY THIS WEEK. DOES LOOK LIKE
THIS WILL TEND TO FLATTEN OUT AROUND MID WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE WORKS OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA ALONG WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE AN
CLIPPER TYPE SURFACE LOW. AS THIS SYSTEM WORKS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND
AROUND WED NIGHT OR THU...DO NOTE SOME MODEL SPREAD IN DIGGING THE
ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE. ALSO...AS THE CLIPPER HEADS TOWARD THE
MARITIMES LATE THIS WEEK IT WILL DEEPEN...WHICH MAY SLOW THE
PASSING COLD FRONT DOWN OFFSHORE AS AN OCEAN LOW APPEARS TO FORM
DOWN THE COAST. SOME AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE ON THE 00Z
CANADIAN GGEM AND ECMWF...BUT IT DOES LOOK TO REMAIN OFFSHORE AT
THIS POINT.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR THIS MORNING/S FORECAST...
WHICH SHOWED GOOD CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

DETAILS...

MONDAY NIGHT...LEFTOVER SNOW WILL END ACROSS THE CT VALLEY EARLY
MON NIGHT...THEN BACK EDGE WILL SHIFT E OVERNIGHT. SOME LIGHT
PRECIP MAY LINGER UNTIL DAYBREAK ACROSS E COASTAL AREAS. VERY COLD
AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WILL LIKELY NEED WIND CHILL
HEADLINES ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

OVERNIGHT LOWS MAY NOT BE QUITE AS COLD AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST
DUE TO LINGERING CLOUDS...BUT WILL STILL SEE SOME LOCATIONS DROP
BELOW ZERO AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...GUSTY NW WINDS WILL LINGER THROUGH AROUND
MIDDAY OR SO ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE STRONG LOW PRES OVER THE
GULF OF ST LAWRENCE. NE-SW ORIENTED HIGH PRES WILL BUILD E DURING
THE DAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE TEENS FOR
MOST AREAS...EXCEPT 20-25 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S COAST...CAPE COD
AND THE ISLANDS.

HIGH PRES RIDGE CRESTS ACROSS THE REGION TUE NIGHT AS LIGHT WINDS
ACTUALLY BACK TO SW. WITH A NEW AND DEEP SNOWPACK THOUGH...LOWS
WILL STILL FALL BACK TO THE SINGLE DIGITS EXCEPT THE TEENS ALONG
THE S COAST. MAY START TO SEE SOME CLOUDS INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT
ACROSS WESTERN AREAS.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...CLIPPER LOW MOVES QUICKLY SE TOWARD THE
REGION. WITH LIGHT SW FLOW IN PLACE...TEMPS MAY ACTUALLY REBOUND
TO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ON WED. HOWEVER...LEADING EDGE OF
PRECIP MAY BRING SCT SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS N AND W MA DURING
THE DAY INTO WED NIGHT AS THE LOW PASSES TO THE N. CURRENT TIMING
OF TRAILING COLD FRONT SUGGESTS PASSAGE DURING THU WITH BEST SHOT
FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. NOT MUCH QPF WITH THIS FEATURE AT THIS
POINT. MAY SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS DURING THU AS ANOTHER
WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT. N WINDS MAY BECOME BLUSTERY
LATE THU/THU NIGHT ALONG THE COAST AS COLDER AIR RETURNS.

FRIDAY...LOOKS TO BE A GENERALLY DRY BUT COLD DAY. MIGHT SEE SOME
LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM.../THROUGH MONDAY/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR...BUT LOW PROB FOR AREAS OF
MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.

VFR THIS EVENING DETERIORATES TO IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS IN MODERATE
TO HEAVY SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT TO DAYBREAK FROM WEST TO EAST.
IFR/LIFR IN MOD/HEAVY SNOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY MON. PTYPE
MAY TRANSITION TO A PERIOD OF SLEET/FREEZING RAIN AROUND MIDDAY
FROM PVD-TAN-PYM SOUTH AND CHANGING TO RAIN OVER THE OUTER
CAPE/ISLANDS. NE WIND GUSTS TO 30-35 KT DEVELOPING ACROSS E
COASTAL MA MONDAY...WITH 25 KT ACROSS RI AND REMAINDER OF E MA.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING OF
IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING OF
IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER IN TIMING.
EXPECT MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS EARLY...THEN SHOULD IMPROVE FROM W-E
DURING THE NIGHT AS PRECIP EXITS. LOWER CONDITIONS MAY LINGER
ACROSS ALONG E COAST THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT. EXPECT N-NW WINDS
GUSTING TO 25-35 KT...HIGHEST ALONG THE COAST.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR ON TUESDAY. NW WIND
GUSTS TO 25-30 KT EARLY ALONG THE COAST.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. COULD SEE SOME MVFR CIGS IN SCT
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS N CENTRAL AND W MA.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. MAY SEE LOCAL MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN SCT SNOW SHOWERS. NW WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT
DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY BUT
EXPECT SCA WAVES TO REMAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT FREEZING
SPRAY WILL PERSIST.

TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS/SEAS QUICKLY RAMP UP DURING MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
INTENSIFIES NEAR THE SOUTH COAST. GALE WATCHES CONTINUE. THE MAIN
FOCUS FOR GUSTS TO 40 KT MONDAY WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN MA COASTAL
WATERS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF CAPE COD...WITH LIGHTER WINDS OVER
THE SOUTH COASTAL WATER. SEAS BUILD TO 15+ FEET ACROSS OUR EASTERN
WATERS BY LATE MON AFTERNOON/EVENING.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT...EXPECT GALE FORCE NW WIND GUSTS. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY WATCH CONTINUES. SEAS BUILD UP TO 9-14 FT ON THE OUTER
WATERS.

TUESDAY...NW GALES LIKELY ALONG WITH FREEZING SPRAY...POSSIBLY
MODERATE TO HEAVY. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH GOOD VSBY EXCEPT
FAR OFFSHORE WHERE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE COMMON.

WEDNESDAY...WINDS EASE AND BECOME SOUTHWEST AS CLIPPER LOW ENTERS
THE GREAT LAKES AND NY STATE. NOT AS COLD SO FREEZING SPRAY
UNLIKELY. VSBYS MAY BRIEFLY LOWER IN A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW.

THURSDAY...COLD FRONT PASSES WITH STRONG SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS.
CHANCE OF LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY LATE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
*** LOW RISK FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING MON NIGHT EASTERN MA
 COASTLINE ***

THE FIRST TIDE CYCLE MONDAY MORNING SHOULD NOT POSE ANY RISKS AS
WINDS WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR A LONG ENOUGH PERIOD OF TIME
TO PRODUCE THE WAVE ACTION OR SURGE NECESSARY FOR COASTAL
FLOODING. A SURGE OF 1 FOOT IS POSSIBLE BUT SEAS WILL BE WELL
UNDER 10 FT.

AS FOR THE MONDAY EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE...ASTRO TIDES ARE ABOUT
1 FT LOWER BUT WAVES WILL BE BUILDING TO 15 TO 20 FT. WE EXPECT
ABOUT A 1.5 TO 2.5 FT STORM SURGE BUT THIS MAY NOT OVERLAP THE
EVENING HIGH TIDE AND MAY OCCUR CLOSER TO LOW TIDE WITH SURGE
VALUES DECREASING TOWARD THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE AS WINDS TURN N.
IF THIS TIMING PLAYS OUT...THE PROBABILITY FOR ANY COASTAL
FLOODING WILL BE LOW. HOWEVER...WE ARE TALKING ABOUT ONLY 6 HOURS
AND IF THE MAX SURGE IS DELAYED AND OVERLAPS THE HIGH TIDE...THERE
WILL BE A HIGHER RISK OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WITH A LOW RISK OF
ISOLD MODERATE FLOODING...MAINLY FROM CAPE COD TO CAPE ANN WITH
PERHAPS THE HIGHEST RISK FROM HULL/COHASSET/SCITUATE/
MARSHFIELD/PLYMOUTH TO SANDWICH HARBOR. AGAIN...THIS WILL DEPEND
OM THE TIMING OF THE MAX SURGE OCCURRING CLOSE TO HIGH TIDE WHICH
DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY AT THIS TIME.

WINDS...SEAS AND STORM SURGE WILL BE CONSIDERABLY LESS THAN THE
PREVIOUS COASTAL STORM BUT THERE COULD STILL BE SOME IMPACT
ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE COMMUNITIES SUCH AS MARSHFIELD MA THAT WERE
HIT HARD EARLIER THIS WEEK WHERE COASTAL STRUCTURES SUCH AS
SEAWALLS WERE DAMAGED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WITH EXTREMELY COLD AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW MONDAY
NIGHT...TEMPERATURES MAY FALL BACK CLOSE TO OR SURPASSING RECORD
LEVELS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

HERE ARE THE RECORD LOWS FOR TUESDAY 2/3...

BOSTON         -5 SET IN 1881
PROVIDENCE     -6 SET IN 1961
WORCESTER      -7 SET IN 1931, 1955 AND 1971
WINDSOR LOCKS  -3 SET IN 1955
BLUE HILL OBS  -7 SET IN 1955

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR MAZ023-024.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR MAZ002>022-026.
RI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR RIZ008.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR RIZ001>007.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ231>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ231-232-251.
     HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR ANZ231>235-237-250-251-254>256.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ231-
     232-250-251-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ233>235-237.
     GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ230-236.
     GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ250-251-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ250-
     254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/EVT
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...KJC/EVT
MARINE...KJC/EVT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...KJC
CLIMATE...STAFF



000
FXUS61 KBOX 011020
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
520 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT THE REGION VERY LATER TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY EVENING WITH HEAVY SNOW FOR MANY LOCATIONS. BITTERLY
COLD WIND CHILLS FOLLOW LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
MODERATING TEMPS WEDNESDAY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME LIGHT SNOW
THEN VERY COLD CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
A COASTAL STORM WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE
WEEK BUT WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ARCTIC FRONT APPROACHING THE CANADIAN BORDER WILL DROP SOUTH
ACROSS NEW ENG TODAY MOVING ACROSS SNE THIS AFTERNOON AND REACHING
THE SOUTH COAST TOWARD EVENING. MODELS INDICATE SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TODAY WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME LOWER CLOUDS...OTHERWISE
SUNSHINE FOR MOST AREAS WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING MID/HIGH
CLOUDS DURING THE DAY. MAX TEMPS WILL REACH 25 TO 30 DEGREES BUT
FALL INTO THE TEENS TOWARD EVENING IN FAR N ZONES AS ARCTIC AIR
DRAINS SOUTH. GUSTY WINDS ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS WILL
DIMINISH...OTHERWISE GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAJOR WINTER STORM VERY LATE TONIGHT INTO MON EVENING
* HEAVY SNOWFALL EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE REGION
* BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY IS SNOWFALL AMTS ACROSS RI AND SE MA DUE TO
  PTYPE ISSUES

OVERVIEW...

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A PROGRESSIVE BUT RATHER POTENT
MID LEVEL TROF WHICH MOVES EAST INTO SNE MON AND BECOMES
NEGATIVELY TILTED. THE SFC LOW TRACKS EAST FROM THE OH VALLEY AND
APPEARS TO JUMP/REDEVELOP ALONG THE MID ATLC COAST...TRACKING NEAR
OR JUST S OF LONG ISLAND TO ACK DURING MONDAY. WITH ARCTIC HIGH
IN PLACE TO THE NORTH...PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL COLD AIR IN PLACE BUT
WARMING ALOFT WILL MAKE FOR A TRICKY SNOWFALL FORECAST NEAR THE S
COAST. GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON QPF WITH 0.75-1.00" WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS ACROSS SE NEW ENG...BUT THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES WITH
THE THERMAL PROFILE. NAM IS THE COLDEST BUT LIKELY A RESULT OF IT
BEING FASTER WITH THE SFC LOW. GFS HAS TRENDED A BIT COLDER WHILE
ECMWF A BIT WARMER AND ONLY MINOR DIFFERENCES EXIST ALOFT. GIVEN
STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT ALL MODELS SHOW WARMING IN THE 850-700 MB
LAYER MOVING NORTH ALONG THE SNE COAST DURING MON. THE UNCERTAINTY
FOR THE SNOWFALL FORECAST IS DETERMINING HOW FAR N THE MIX LINE
GETS.

SYSTEM REMAINS AN OPEN WAVE AT 700 MB AS IT CROSSES CENTRAL NEW
ENG LATE MON SO NOT LOOKING AT TYPICAL BANDING SIGNAL ASSOCD WITH
STRONG MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. THIS WILL BE A CLASSIC STRONG
OVERRUNNING EVENT AS MILDER AIR AND MOISTURE OVERRUNS VERY STRONG
LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS SNE WITH ARCTIC TO THE NORTH.

1) TIMING AND PTYPE

SNOW DEVELOPS IN THE CT VALLEY BY MIDNIGHT THEN QUICKLY
OVERSPREADS THE REST OF SNE THROUGH DAYBREAK. THE SNOW WILL
QUICKLY BECOME HEAVY LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AND WILL
HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE MORNING COMMUTE. GOOD SNOW
GROWTH AROUND 12Z AND STRONG MID LEVEL OMEGA WILL RESULT IN A
GOOD FRONT END THUMP WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR
ACROSS THE REGION FOR SEVERAL HOURS IN THE MORNING.

THE UNCERTAINTY INCREASES CLOSER TO THE S COAST MID/LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON AS WARMER AIR ALOFT SURGES NORTHWARD. WE
BLENDED THE MODELS WHICH SUGGEST A MIX OR CHANGE TO SLEET BRIEFLY
GETTING TO MA/N RI BORDER BY MIDDAY BEFORE COLLAPSING SE DURING
THE AFTERNOON. FURTHER S...DEEPER WARM LAYER WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND POSSIBLY SOME
RAIN AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS. A CHANGE TO PLAIN RAIN IS MOST
LIKELY OVER THE ISLANDS. ANY RAIN OR MIXED PRECIP WILL CHANGE BACK
TO SNOW MID/LATE AFTERNOON BUT NOT UNTIL EVENING FOR THE
OUTER/CAPE ISLANDS.

THIS IS STILL A VERY TRICKY PTYPE FORECAST DUE TO THE STRONG
LOW/MID LEVEL TEMP GRADIENT SO PTYPE WILL BE VERY SENSITIVE TO
JUST A MINOR SHIFT IN THE SFC AND 850 MB LOW TRACK.

SNOWFALL IN THE AFTERNOON WILL NOT BE AS HEAVY AS THE MORNING AS
BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT WEAKENS AND SNOW GROWTH NOT QUITE AS
FAVORABLE...BUT STILL SOME DECENT SNOWFALL ESPECIALLY IN THE
NORTH.

2) SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS AND HEADLINES

WE HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN HEAVY SNOWFALL FOR MUCH OF THE REGION
WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW LIKELY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE
WHERE DEFINITELY NO MIXING ISSUES. EXPECT SNOW ACCUM AROUND A
FOOT FOR THIS REGION...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS AROUND 6 TO 10 INCHES
FURTHER S ACROSS RI AND SE MA DUE TO MIXING ISSUES. WE HAVE ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE FOR UP TO 6 INCHES NEAR THE S COAST TO UPGRADE TO A
WARNING. IN ADDITION THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR UP TO A TENTH OF AN
INCH OF ICE ACCRETION NEAR THE COAST. AMOUNTS MAY FALL SHORT OF 6
INCHES ON CAPE COD...BUT WE INCLUDED THEM IN THE WARNING DUE TO
COMBINATION OF SNOW AND SOME ICE.

FOR THE ISLANDS...WE WILL GO WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
ACCUM 2 TO 5 INCHES...LEAST ON NANTUCKET.

3) STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW

NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH EXPECTED ALONG THE EASTERN
MASS COAST MONDAY AS STORM INTENSIFIES AND PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES. THIS WILL RESULT IN POOR VISIBILITY ALONG WITH BLOWING
AND DRIFTING SNOW. ITS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW LOCATIONS ALONG THE
COAST COULD SEE NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FOR A VERY SHORT
TIME...BUT STORM DOESN/T SEEM TO WARRANT THOSE TYPE OF HEADLINES.

4) TEMPS

A VERY STRONG COASTAL FRONT WILL SET UP DURING MONDAY WITH TEMPS
IN THE TEENS NORTH OF I-84 TO I-90 CORRIDOR AND WEST OF I-495
WITH EVEN SOME SINGLE NUMBERS FAR N/NW MA...WHILE TEMPS WILL REACH
THE LOWER TO MID 30S SE MA. A FLASH FREEZE IS LIKELY ACROSS SE
COASTAL MA AND CAPE/ISLANDS IN THE EVENING AS THE COASTAL FRONT
MOVES THROUGH AND TEMPS PLUMMET.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK INTO
  THE WEEKEND
* MAY SEE A BRIEF BREAK OF THE COLD TEMPS AROUND MID WEEK AS HIGH
  PRES MOVES S OF THE REGION
* CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WED
  NIGHT/THU WITH A COLD FRONT LATE THU

OVERVIEW...

00Z MODEL SUITE AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE WITH SIMILAR UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE FOR OVER A
WEEK AT LEAST. NOTING H5 RIDGE BUILDING ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST
WHILE PERSISTENT LONG WAVE TROUGHING REMAINS ACROSS THE EAST WITH
VORTEX CENTERED AROUND HUDSON BAY EARLY THIS WEEK. DOES LOOK LIKE
THIS WILL TEND TO FLATTEN OUT AROUND MID WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE WORKS OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA ALONG WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE AN
CLIPPER TYPE SURFACE LOW. AS THIS SYSTEM WORKS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND
AROUND WED NIGHT OR THU...DO NOTE SOME MODEL SPREAD IN DIGGING THE
ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE. ALSO...AS THE CLIPPER HEADS TOWARD THE
MARITIMES LATE THIS WEEK IT WILL DEEPEN...WHICH MAY SLOW THE
PASSING COLD FRONT DOWN OFFSHORE AS AN OCEAN LOW APPEARS TO FORM
DOWN THE COAST. SOME AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE ON THE 00Z
CANADIAN GGEM AND ECMWF...BUT IT DOES LOOK TO REMAIN OFFSHORE AT
THIS POINT.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR THIS MORNING/S FORECAST...
WHICH SHOWED GOOD CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

DETAILS...

MONDAY NIGHT...LEFTOVER SNOW WILL END ACROSS THE CT VALLEY EARLY
MON NIGHT...THEN BACK EDGE WILL SHIFT E OVERNIGHT. SOME LIGHT
PRECIP MAY LINGER UNTIL DAYBREAK ACROSS E COASTAL AREAS. VERY COLD
AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WILL LIKELY NEED WIND CHILL
HEADLINES ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

OVERNIGHT LOWS MAY NOT BE QUITE AS COLD AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST
DUE TO LINGERING CLOUDS...BUT WILL STILL SEE SOME LOCATIONS DROP
BELOW ZERO AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...GUSTY NW WINDS WILL LINGER THROUGH AROUND
MIDDAY OR SO ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE STRONG LOW PRES OVER THE
GULF OF ST LAWRENCE. NE-SW ORIENTED HIGH PRES WILL BUILD E DURING
THE DAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE TEENS FOR
MOST AREAS...EXCEPT 20-25 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S COAST...CAPE COD
AND THE ISLANDS.

HIGH PRES RIDGE CRESTS ACROSS THE REGION TUE NIGHT AS LIGHT WINDS
ACTUALLY BACK TO SW. WITH A NEW AND DEEP SNOWPACK THOUGH...LOWS
WILL STILL FALL BACK TO THE SINGLE DIGITS EXCEPT THE TEENS ALONG
THE S COAST. MAY START TO SEE SOME CLOUDS INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT
ACROSS WESTERN AREAS.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...CLIPPER LOW MOVES QUICKLY SE TOWARD THE
REGION. WITH LIGHT SW FLOW IN PLACE...TEMPS MAY ACTUALLY REBOUND
TO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ON WED. HOWEVER...LEADING EDGE OF
PRECIP MAY BRING SCT SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS N AND W MA DURING
THE DAY INTO WED NIGHT AS THE LOW PASSES TO THE N. CURRENT TIMING
OF TRAILING COLD FRONT SUGGESTS PASSAGE DURING THU WITH BEST SHOT
FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. NOT MUCH QPF WITH THIS FEATURE AT THIS
POINT. MAY SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS DURING THU AS ANOTHER
WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT. N WINDS MAY BECOME BLUSTERY
LATE THU/THU NIGHT ALONG THE COAST AS COLDER AIR RETURNS.

FRIDAY...LOOKS TO BE A GENERALLY DRY BUT COLD DAY. MIGHT SEE SOME
LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM.../THROUGH MONDAY/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR...BUT LOW PROB FOR AREAS OF
MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.

VFR THIS EVENING DETERIORATES TO IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS IN MODERATE
TO HEAVY SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT TO DAYBREAK FROM WEST TO EAST.
IFR/LIFR IN MOD/HEAVY SNOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY MON. PTYPE
MAY TRANSITION TO A PERIOD OF SLEET/FREEZING RAIN AROUND MIDDAY
FROM PVD-TAN-PYM SOUTH AND CHANGING TO RAIN OVER THE OUTER
CAPE/ISLANDS. NE WIND GUSTS TO 30-35 KT DEVELOPING ACROSS E
COASTAL MA MONDAY...WITH 25 KT ACROSS RI AND REMAINDER OF E MA.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING OF
IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING OF
IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER IN TIMING.
EXPECT MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS EARLY...THEN SHOULD IMPROVE FROM W-E
DURING THE NIGHT AS PRECIP EXITS. LOWER CONDITIONS MAY LINGER
ACROSS ALONG E COAST THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT. EXPECT N-NW WINDS
GUSTING TO 25-35 KT...HIGHEST ALONG THE COAST.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR ON TUESDAY. NW WIND
GUSTS TO 25-30 KT EARLY ALONG THE COAST.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. COULD SEE SOME MVFR CIGS IN SCT
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS N CENTRAL AND W MA.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. MAY SEE LOCAL MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN SCT SNOW SHOWERS. NW WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT
DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY BUT
EXPECT SCA WAVES TO REMAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT FREEZING
SPRAY WILL PERSIST.

TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS/SEAS QUICKLY RAMP UP DURING MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
INTENSIFIES NEAR THE SOUTH COAST. GALE WATCHES CONTINUE. THE MAIN
FOCUS FOR GUSTS TO 40 KT MONDAY WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN MA COASTAL
WATERS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF CAPE COD...WITH LIGHTER WINDS OVER
THE SOUTH COASTAL WATER. SEAS BUILD TO 15+ FEET ACROSS OUR EASTERN
WATERS BY LATE MON AFTERNOON/EVENING.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT...EXPECT GALE FORCE NW WIND GUSTS. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY WATCH CONTINUES. SEAS BUILD UP TO 9-14 FT ON THE OUTER
WATERS.

TUESDAY...NW GALES LIKELY ALONG WITH FREEZING SPRAY...POSSIBLY
MODERATE TO HEAVY. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH GOOD VSBY EXCEPT
FAR OFFSHORE WHERE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE COMMON.

WEDNESDAY...WINDS EASE AND BECOME SOUTHWEST AS CLIPPER LOW ENTERS
THE GREAT LAKES AND NY STATE. NOT AS COLD SO FREEZING SPRAY
UNLIKELY. VSBYS MAY BRIEFLY LOWER IN A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW.

THURSDAY...COLD FRONT PASSES WITH STRONG SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS.
CHANCE OF LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY LATE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
*** LOW RISK FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING MON NIGHT EASTERN MA
 COASTLINE ***

THE FIRST TIDE CYCLE MONDAY MORNING SHOULD NOT POSE ANY RISKS AS
WINDS WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR A LONG ENOUGH PERIOD OF TIME
TO PRODUCE THE WAVE ACTION OR SURGE NECESSARY FOR COASTAL
FLOODING. A SURGE OF 1 FOOT IS POSSIBLE BUT SEAS WILL BE WELL
UNDER 10 FT.

AS FOR THE MONDAY EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE...ASTRO TIDES ARE ABOUT
1 FT LOWER BUT WAVES WILL BE BUILDING TO 15 TO 20 FT. WE EXPECT
ABOUT A 1.5 TO 2.5 FT STORM SURGE BUT THIS MAY NOT OVERLAP THE
EVENING HIGH TIDE AND MAY OCCUR CLOSER TO LOW TIDE WITH SURGE
VALUES DECREASING TOWARD THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE AS WINDS TURN N.
IF THIS TIMING PLAYS OUT...THE PROBABILITY FOR ANY COASTAL
FLOODING WILL BE LOW. HOWEVER...WE ARE TALKING ABOUT ONLY 6 HOURS
AND IF THE MAX SURGE IS DELAYED AND OVERLAPS THE HIGH TIDE...THERE
WILL BE A HIGHER RISK OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WITH A LOW RISK OF
ISOLD MODERATE FLOODING...MAINLY FROM CAPE COD TO CAPE ANN WITH
PERHAPS THE HIGHEST RISK FROM HULL/COHASSET/SCITUATE/
MARSHFIELD/PLYMOUTH TO SANDWICH HARBOR. AGAIN...THIS WILL DEPEND
OM THE TIMING OF THE MAX SURGE OCCURRING CLOSE TO HIGH TIDE WHICH
DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY AT THIS TIME.

WINDS...SEAS AND STORM SURGE WILL BE CONSIDERABLY LESS THAN THE
PREVIOUS COASTAL STORM BUT THERE COULD STILL BE SOME IMPACT
ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE COMMUNITIES SUCH AS MARSHFIELD MA THAT WERE
HIT HARD EARLIER THIS WEEK WHERE COASTAL STRUCTURES SUCH AS
SEAWALLS WERE DAMAGED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WITH EXTREMELY COLD AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW MONDAY
NIGHT...TEMPERATURES MAY FALL BACK CLOSE TO OR SURPASSING RECORD
LEVELS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

HERE ARE THE RECORD LOWS FOR TUESDAY 2/3...

BOSTON         -5 SET IN 1881
PROVIDENCE     -6 SET IN 1961
WORCESTER      -7 SET IN 1931, 1955 AND 1971
WINDSOR LOCKS  -3 SET IN 1955
BLUE HILL OBS  -7 SET IN 1955

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR MAZ023-024.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR MAZ002>022-026.
RI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR RIZ008.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR RIZ001>007.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ231>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ231-232-251.
     HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR ANZ231>235-237-250-251-254>256.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ231-
     232-250-251-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ233>235-237.
     GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ230-236.
     GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ250-251-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ250-
     254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/EVT
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...KJC/EVT
MARINE...KJC/EVT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...KJC
CLIMATE...STAFF



000
FXUS61 KBOX 010932
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
432 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT THE REGION VERY LATER TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY EVENING WITH HEAVY SNOW FOR MANY LOCATIONS. BITTERLY
COLD WIND CHILLS FOLLOW LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
MODERATING TEMPS WEDNESDAY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME LIGHT SNOW
THEN VERY COLD CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
A COASTAL STORM WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE
WEEK BUT WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
ARCTIC FRONT APPROACHING THE CANADIAN BORDER WILL DROP SOUTH
ACROSS NEW ENG TODAY MOVING ACROSS SNE THIS AFTERNOON AND REACHING
THE SOUTH COAST TOWARD EVENING. MODELS INDICATE SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TODAY WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME LOWER CLOUDS...OTHERWISE
SUNSHINE FOR MOST AREAS WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING MID/HIGH
CLOUDS DURING THE DAY. MAX TEMPS WILL REACH 25 TO 30 DEGREES BUT
FALL INTO THE TEENS TOWARD EVENING IN FAR N ZONES AS ARCTIC AIR
DRAINS SOUTH. GUSTY WINDS ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS WILL
DIMINISH...OTHERWISE GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAJOR WINTER STORM VERY LATE TONIGHT INTO MON EVENING
* HEAVY SNOWFALL EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE REGION
* BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY IS SNOWFALL AMTS ACROSS RI AND SE MA DUE TO
  PTYPE ISSUES

OVERVIEW...

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A PROGRESSIVE BUT RATHER POTENT
MID LEVEL TROF WHICH MOVES EAST INTO SNE MON AND BECOMES
NEGATIVELY TILTED. THE SFC LOW TRACKS EAST FROM THE OH VALLEY AND
APPEARS TO JUMP/REDEVELOP ALONG THE MID ATLC COAST...TRACKING NEAR
OR JUST S OF LONG ISLAND TO ACK DURING MONDAY. WITH ARCTIC HIGH
IN PLACE TO THE NORTH...PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL COLD AIR IN PLACE BUT
WARMING ALOFT WILL MAKE FOR A TRICKY SNOWFALL FORECAST NEAR THE S
COAST. GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON QPF WITH 0.75-1.00" WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS ACROSS SE NEW ENG...BUT THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES WITH
THE THERMAL PROFILE. NAM IS THE COLDEST BUT LIKELY A RESULT OF IT
BEING FASTER WITH THE SFC LOW. GFS HAS TRENDED A BIT COLDER WHILE
ECMWF A BIT WARMER AND ONLY MINOR DIFFERENCES EXIST ALOFT. GIVEN
STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT ALL MODELS SHOW WARMING IN THE 850-700 MB
LAYER MOVING NORTH ALONG THE SNE COAST DURING MON. THE UNCERTAINTY
FOR THE SNOWFALL FORECAST IS DETERMINING HOW FAR N THE MIX LINE
GETS.

SYSTEM REMAINS AN OPEN WAVE AT 700 MB AS IT CROSSES CENTRAL NEW
ENG LATE MON SO NOT LOOKING AT TYPICAL BANDING SIGNAL ASSOCD WITH
STRONG MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. THIS WILL BE A CLASSIC STRONG
OVERRUNNING EVENT AS MILDER AIR AND MOISTURE OVERRUNS VERY STRONG
LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS SNE WITH ARCTIC TO THE NORTH.

1) TIMING AND PTYPE

SNOW DEVELOPS IN THE CT VALLEY BY MIDNIGHT THEN QUICKLY
OVERSPREADS THE REST OF SNE THROUGH DAYBREAK. THE SNOW WILL
QUICKLY BECOME HEAVY LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AND WILL
HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE MORNING COMMUTE. GOOD SNOW
GROWTH AROUND 12Z AND STRONG MID LEVEL OMEGA WILL RESULT IN A
GOOD FRONT END THUMP WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR
ACROSS THE REGION FOR SEVERAL HOURS IN THE MORNING.

THE UNCERTAINTY INCREASES CLOSER TO THE S COAST MID/LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON AS WARMER AIR ALOFT SURGES NORTHWARD. WE
BLENDED THE MODELS WHICH SUGGEST A MIX OR CHANGE TO SLEET BRIEFLY
GETTING TO MA/N RI BORDER BY MIDDAY BEFORE COLLAPSING SE DURING
THE AFTERNOON. FURTHER S...DEEPER WARM LAYER WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND POSSIBLY SOME
RAIN AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS. A CHANGE TO PLAIN RAIN IS MOST
LIKELY OVER THE ISLANDS. ANY RAIN OR MIXED PRECIP WILL CHANGE BACK
TO SNOW MID/LATE AFTERNOON BUT NOT UNTIL EVENING FOR THE
OUTER/CAPE ISLANDS.

THIS IS STILL A VERY TRICKY PTYPE FORECAST DUE TO THE STRONG
LOW/MID LEVEL TEMP GRADIENT SO PTYPE WILL BE VERY SENSITIVE TO
JUST A MINOR SHIFT IN THE SFC AND 850 MB LOW TRACK.

SNOWFALL IN THE AFTERNOON WILL NOT BE AS HEAVY AS THE MORNING AS
BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT WEAKENS AND SNOW GROWTH NOT QUITE AS
FAVORABLE...BUT STILL SOME DECENT SNOWFALL ESPECIALLY IN THE
NORTH.

2) SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS AND HEADLINES

WE HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN HEAVY SNOWFALL FOR MUCH OF THE REGION
WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW LIKELY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE
WHERE DEFINITELY NO MIXING ISSUES. EXPECT SNOW ACCUM AROUND A
FOOT FOR THIS REGION...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS AROUND 6 TO 10 INCHES
FURTHER S ACROSS RI AND SE MA DUE TO MIXING ISSUES. WE HAVE ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE FOR UP TO 6 INCHES NEAR THE S COAST TO UPGRADE TO A
WARNING. IN ADDITION THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR UP TO A TENTH OF AN
INCH OF ICE ACCRETION NEAR THE COAST. AMOUNTS MAY FALL SHORT OF 6
INCHES ON CAPE COD...BUT WE INCLUDED THEM IN THE WARNING DUE TO
COMBINATION OF SNOW AND SOME ICE.

FOR THE ISLANDS...WE WILL GO WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
ACCUM 2 TO 5 INCHES...LEAST ON NANTUCKET.

3) STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW

NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH EXPECTED ALONG THE EASTERN
MASS COAST MONDAY AS STORM INTENSIFIES AND PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES. THIS WILL RESULT IN POOR VISIBILITY ALONG WITH BLOWING
AND DRIFTING SNOW. ITS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW LOCATIONS ALONG THE
COAST COULD SEE NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FOR A VERY SHORT
TIME...BUT STORM DOESN/T SEEM TO WARRANT THOSE TYPE OF HEADLINES.

4) TEMPS

A VERY STRONG COASTAL FRONT WILL SET UP DURING MONDAY WITH TEMPS
IN THE TEENS NORTH OF I-84 TO I-90 CORRIDOR AND WEST OF I-495
WITH EVEN SOME SINGLE NUMBERS FAR N/NW MA...WHILE TEMPS WILL REACH
THE LOWER TO MID 30S SE MA. A FLASH FREEZE IS LIKELY ACROSS SE
COASTAL MA AND CAPE/ISLANDS IN THE EVENING AS THE COASTAL FRONT
MOVES THROUGH AND TEMPS PLUMMET.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* COLD PATTERN CONTINUES THRU NEXT WEEKEND
* CLIPPER LOW APPEARING MORE LIKELY THAN COASTAL LOW WED/THU

GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG 12Z DETERMINISTIC...12Z GEFS AND 00Z ECENS
ENSEMBLES THAT THE POLAR JET WILL DOMINATE THE NORTHERN TIER STATES
INCLUDING NEW ENGLAND THIS PERIOD. THIS COMBINED WITH STREAMS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNPHASED WILL SUPPORT MAINLY DRY WEATHER THIS
PERIOD. ONE CAVEAT WILL BE CLIPPER LOW ENTERING THE NORTHEAST
WED/WED NIGHT. EARLIER MODEL RUNS SUGGESTED SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT SOUTHWEST OF NEW ENGLAND...WITH
POSSIBLE COASTAL-OCEAN STORM IMPACTING OUR REGION AROUND THU.
HOWEVER LATEST GUID INCLUDING ENSEMBLES SUGGEST MID LEVEL TROUGH
WILL LACK SUFFICIENT AMPLITUDE TO BACK THE FLOW FOR A SECONDARY LOW
TO IMPACT THE REGION. THEREFORE LEANING TOWARD A MORE OFFSHORE TRACK
AND JUST A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE WED/WED NIGHT. HOWEVER AT
THIS TIME RANGE CAN/T BE TOO DETERMINISTIC. THUS WON`T TOTALLY
DISCOUNT CLOSER SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT.

AS FOR TEMPS...BITTERLY COLD TUE BEHIND DEPARTING MON NGT COASTAL
LOW. THEN COLD EASES WED AHEAD OF APPROACHING CLIPPER LOW FOLLOWED
BUT YET ANOTHER ARCTIC BLAST LATE IN THE WEEK BEHIND THE CLIPPER. AS
FOR INTO NEXT WEEKEND ENSEMBLE TRENDS SUGGEST TEMPS COLDER THAN
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM.../THROUGH MONDAY/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR...BUT LOW PROB FOR AREAS OF
MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.

VFR THIS EVENING DETERIORATES TO IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS IN MODERATE
TO HEAVY SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT TO DAYBREAK FROM WEST TO EAST.
IFR/LIFR IN MOD/HEAVY SNOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY MON. PTYPE
MAY TRANSITION TO A PERIOD OF SLEET/FREEZING RAIN AROUND MIDDAY
FROM PVD-TAN-PYM SOUTH AND CHANGING TO RAIN OVER THE OUTER
CAPE/ISLANDS. NE WIND GUSTS TO 30-35 KT DEVELOPING ACROSS E
COASTAL MA MONDAY...WITH 25 KT ACROSS RI AND REMAINDER OF E MA.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING OF
IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING OF
IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR ON
TUESDAY. COULD SEE SOME MVFR CIGS IN SCT SNOW SHOWERS ON
WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW RISK OF MVFR
ALONG SOUTHEAST MASS DEPENDING ON TRACK OF CLIPPER LOW.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY BUT
EXPECT SCA WAVES TO REMAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT FREEZING
SPRAY WILL PERSIST.

TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS/SEAS QUICKLY RAMP UP DURING MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
INTENSIFIES NEAR THE SOUTH COAST. GALE WATCHES CONTINUE. THE MAIN
FOCUS FOR GUSTS TO 40 KT MONDAY WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN MA COASTAL
WATERS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF CAPE COD...WITH LIGHTER WINDS OVER
THE SOUTH COASTAL WATER. SEAS BUILD TO 15+ FEET ACROSS OUR EASTERN
WATERS BY LATE MON AFTERNOON/EVENING.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE TO HIGH
FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT...BITTERLY COLD AIR MOVING OVER THE WATERS MONDAY
NIGHT WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. HAVE
ALSO ISSUED A FREEZING SPRAY WATCH.

TUESDAY...NW GALES LIKELY ALONG WITH FREEZING SPRAY...POSSIBLY
MODERATE TO HEAVY. MAINLY DRY WITH GOOD VSBY EXCEPT FAR OFFSHORE
WHERE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE COMMON.

WED...WINDS EASE AND BECOME SOUTHWEST AS CLIPPER LOW ENTERS THE
GREAT LAKES AND NY STATE. NOT AS COLD SO FREEZING SPRAY UNLIKELY.
VSBY MAY BRIEFLY LOWER IN A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW.

THU...ARCTIC FRONT WITH NW GALES BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE. MODERATE TO
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY POSSIBLE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
*** LOW RISK FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING MON NIGHT EASTERN MA
 COASTLINE ***

THE FIRST TIDE CYCLE MONDAY MORNING SHOULD NOT POSE ANY RISKS AS
WINDS WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR A LONG ENOUGH PERIOD OF TIME
TO PRODUCE THE WAVE ACTION OR SURGE NECESSARY FOR COASTAL
FLOODING. A SURGE OF 1 FOOT IS POSSIBLE BUT SEAS WILL BE WELL
UNDER 10 FT.

AS FOR THE MONDAY EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE...ASTRO TIDES ARE ABOUT
1 FT LOWER BUT WAVES WILL BE BUILDING TO 15 TO 20 FT. WE EXPECT
ABOUT A 1.5 TO 2.5 FT STORM SURGE BUT THIS MAY NOT OVERLAP THE
EVENING HIGH TIDE AND MAY OCCUR CLOSER TO LOW TIDE WITH SURGE
VALUES DECREASING TOWARD THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE AS WINDS TURN N.
IF THIS TIMING PLAYS OUT...THE PROBABILITY FOR ANY COASTAL
FLOODING WILL BE LOW. HOWEVER...WE ARE TALKING ABOUT ONLY 6 HOURS
AND IF THE MAX SURGE IS DELAYED AND OVERLAPS THE HIGH TIDE...THERE
WILL BE A HIGHER RISK OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WITH A LOW RISK OF
ISOLD MODERATE FLOODING...MAINLY FROM CAPE COD TO CAPE ANN WITH
PERHAPS THE HIGHEST RISK FROM HULL/COHASSET/SCITUATE/
MARSHFIELD/PLYMOUTH TO SANDWICH HARBOR. AGAIN...THIS WILL DEPEND
OM THE TIMING OF THE MAX SURGE OCCURING CLOSE TO HIGH TIDE WHICH
DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY AT THIS TIME.

WINDS...SEAS AND STORM SURGE WILL BE CONSIDERABLY LESS THAN THE
PREVIOUS COASTAL STORM BUT THERE COULD STILL BE SOME IMPACT
ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE COMMUNITIES SUCH AS MARSHFIELD MA THAT WERE
HIT HARD EARLIER THIS WEEK WHERE COASTAL STRUCTURES SUCH AS
SEAWALLS WERE DAMAGED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WITH EXTREMELY COLD AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW MONDAY
NIGHT...TEMPERATURES MAY FALL BACK CLOSE TO OR SURPASSING RECORD
LEVELS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AND THAT IS NOT TAKING INTO ACCOUNT
THE STRONG WINDS.

HERE ARE THE RECORD LOWS FOR TUESDAY 2/3...

BOSTON         -5 SET IN 1881
PROVIDENCE     -6 SET IN 1961
WORCESTER      -7 SET IN 1931, 1955 AND 1971
WINDSOR LOCKS  -3 SET IN 1955
BLUE HILL OBS  -7 SET IN 1955

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR MAZ023-024.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR MAZ002>022-026.
RI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR RIZ008.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR RIZ001>007.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ231>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ231-232-251.
     HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR ANZ231>235-237-250-251-254>256.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ231-
     232-250-251-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ233>235-237.
     GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ230-236.
     GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ250-251-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ250-
     254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...KJC/FRANK
MARINE...KJC/FRANK/NOCERA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KBOX 010932
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
432 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT THE REGION VERY LATER TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY EVENING WITH HEAVY SNOW FOR MANY LOCATIONS. BITTERLY
COLD WIND CHILLS FOLLOW LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
MODERATING TEMPS WEDNESDAY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME LIGHT SNOW
THEN VERY COLD CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
A COASTAL STORM WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE
WEEK BUT WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
ARCTIC FRONT APPROACHING THE CANADIAN BORDER WILL DROP SOUTH
ACROSS NEW ENG TODAY MOVING ACROSS SNE THIS AFTERNOON AND REACHING
THE SOUTH COAST TOWARD EVENING. MODELS INDICATE SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TODAY WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME LOWER CLOUDS...OTHERWISE
SUNSHINE FOR MOST AREAS WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING MID/HIGH
CLOUDS DURING THE DAY. MAX TEMPS WILL REACH 25 TO 30 DEGREES BUT
FALL INTO THE TEENS TOWARD EVENING IN FAR N ZONES AS ARCTIC AIR
DRAINS SOUTH. GUSTY WINDS ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS WILL
DIMINISH...OTHERWISE GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAJOR WINTER STORM VERY LATE TONIGHT INTO MON EVENING
* HEAVY SNOWFALL EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE REGION
* BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY IS SNOWFALL AMTS ACROSS RI AND SE MA DUE TO
  PTYPE ISSUES

OVERVIEW...

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A PROGRESSIVE BUT RATHER POTENT
MID LEVEL TROF WHICH MOVES EAST INTO SNE MON AND BECOMES
NEGATIVELY TILTED. THE SFC LOW TRACKS EAST FROM THE OH VALLEY AND
APPEARS TO JUMP/REDEVELOP ALONG THE MID ATLC COAST...TRACKING NEAR
OR JUST S OF LONG ISLAND TO ACK DURING MONDAY. WITH ARCTIC HIGH
IN PLACE TO THE NORTH...PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL COLD AIR IN PLACE BUT
WARMING ALOFT WILL MAKE FOR A TRICKY SNOWFALL FORECAST NEAR THE S
COAST. GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON QPF WITH 0.75-1.00" WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS ACROSS SE NEW ENG...BUT THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES WITH
THE THERMAL PROFILE. NAM IS THE COLDEST BUT LIKELY A RESULT OF IT
BEING FASTER WITH THE SFC LOW. GFS HAS TRENDED A BIT COLDER WHILE
ECMWF A BIT WARMER AND ONLY MINOR DIFFERENCES EXIST ALOFT. GIVEN
STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT ALL MODELS SHOW WARMING IN THE 850-700 MB
LAYER MOVING NORTH ALONG THE SNE COAST DURING MON. THE UNCERTAINTY
FOR THE SNOWFALL FORECAST IS DETERMINING HOW FAR N THE MIX LINE
GETS.

SYSTEM REMAINS AN OPEN WAVE AT 700 MB AS IT CROSSES CENTRAL NEW
ENG LATE MON SO NOT LOOKING AT TYPICAL BANDING SIGNAL ASSOCD WITH
STRONG MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. THIS WILL BE A CLASSIC STRONG
OVERRUNNING EVENT AS MILDER AIR AND MOISTURE OVERRUNS VERY STRONG
LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS SNE WITH ARCTIC TO THE NORTH.

1) TIMING AND PTYPE

SNOW DEVELOPS IN THE CT VALLEY BY MIDNIGHT THEN QUICKLY
OVERSPREADS THE REST OF SNE THROUGH DAYBREAK. THE SNOW WILL
QUICKLY BECOME HEAVY LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AND WILL
HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE MORNING COMMUTE. GOOD SNOW
GROWTH AROUND 12Z AND STRONG MID LEVEL OMEGA WILL RESULT IN A
GOOD FRONT END THUMP WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR
ACROSS THE REGION FOR SEVERAL HOURS IN THE MORNING.

THE UNCERTAINTY INCREASES CLOSER TO THE S COAST MID/LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON AS WARMER AIR ALOFT SURGES NORTHWARD. WE
BLENDED THE MODELS WHICH SUGGEST A MIX OR CHANGE TO SLEET BRIEFLY
GETTING TO MA/N RI BORDER BY MIDDAY BEFORE COLLAPSING SE DURING
THE AFTERNOON. FURTHER S...DEEPER WARM LAYER WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND POSSIBLY SOME
RAIN AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS. A CHANGE TO PLAIN RAIN IS MOST
LIKELY OVER THE ISLANDS. ANY RAIN OR MIXED PRECIP WILL CHANGE BACK
TO SNOW MID/LATE AFTERNOON BUT NOT UNTIL EVENING FOR THE
OUTER/CAPE ISLANDS.

THIS IS STILL A VERY TRICKY PTYPE FORECAST DUE TO THE STRONG
LOW/MID LEVEL TEMP GRADIENT SO PTYPE WILL BE VERY SENSITIVE TO
JUST A MINOR SHIFT IN THE SFC AND 850 MB LOW TRACK.

SNOWFALL IN THE AFTERNOON WILL NOT BE AS HEAVY AS THE MORNING AS
BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT WEAKENS AND SNOW GROWTH NOT QUITE AS
FAVORABLE...BUT STILL SOME DECENT SNOWFALL ESPECIALLY IN THE
NORTH.

2) SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS AND HEADLINES

WE HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN HEAVY SNOWFALL FOR MUCH OF THE REGION
WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW LIKELY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE
WHERE DEFINITELY NO MIXING ISSUES. EXPECT SNOW ACCUM AROUND A
FOOT FOR THIS REGION...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS AROUND 6 TO 10 INCHES
FURTHER S ACROSS RI AND SE MA DUE TO MIXING ISSUES. WE HAVE ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE FOR UP TO 6 INCHES NEAR THE S COAST TO UPGRADE TO A
WARNING. IN ADDITION THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR UP TO A TENTH OF AN
INCH OF ICE ACCRETION NEAR THE COAST. AMOUNTS MAY FALL SHORT OF 6
INCHES ON CAPE COD...BUT WE INCLUDED THEM IN THE WARNING DUE TO
COMBINATION OF SNOW AND SOME ICE.

FOR THE ISLANDS...WE WILL GO WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
ACCUM 2 TO 5 INCHES...LEAST ON NANTUCKET.

3) STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW

NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH EXPECTED ALONG THE EASTERN
MASS COAST MONDAY AS STORM INTENSIFIES AND PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES. THIS WILL RESULT IN POOR VISIBILITY ALONG WITH BLOWING
AND DRIFTING SNOW. ITS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW LOCATIONS ALONG THE
COAST COULD SEE NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FOR A VERY SHORT
TIME...BUT STORM DOESN/T SEEM TO WARRANT THOSE TYPE OF HEADLINES.

4) TEMPS

A VERY STRONG COASTAL FRONT WILL SET UP DURING MONDAY WITH TEMPS
IN THE TEENS NORTH OF I-84 TO I-90 CORRIDOR AND WEST OF I-495
WITH EVEN SOME SINGLE NUMBERS FAR N/NW MA...WHILE TEMPS WILL REACH
THE LOWER TO MID 30S SE MA. A FLASH FREEZE IS LIKELY ACROSS SE
COASTAL MA AND CAPE/ISLANDS IN THE EVENING AS THE COASTAL FRONT
MOVES THROUGH AND TEMPS PLUMMET.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* COLD PATTERN CONTINUES THRU NEXT WEEKEND
* CLIPPER LOW APPEARING MORE LIKELY THAN COASTAL LOW WED/THU

GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG 12Z DETERMINISTIC...12Z GEFS AND 00Z ECENS
ENSEMBLES THAT THE POLAR JET WILL DOMINATE THE NORTHERN TIER STATES
INCLUDING NEW ENGLAND THIS PERIOD. THIS COMBINED WITH STREAMS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNPHASED WILL SUPPORT MAINLY DRY WEATHER THIS
PERIOD. ONE CAVEAT WILL BE CLIPPER LOW ENTERING THE NORTHEAST
WED/WED NIGHT. EARLIER MODEL RUNS SUGGESTED SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT SOUTHWEST OF NEW ENGLAND...WITH
POSSIBLE COASTAL-OCEAN STORM IMPACTING OUR REGION AROUND THU.
HOWEVER LATEST GUID INCLUDING ENSEMBLES SUGGEST MID LEVEL TROUGH
WILL LACK SUFFICIENT AMPLITUDE TO BACK THE FLOW FOR A SECONDARY LOW
TO IMPACT THE REGION. THEREFORE LEANING TOWARD A MORE OFFSHORE TRACK
AND JUST A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE WED/WED NIGHT. HOWEVER AT
THIS TIME RANGE CAN/T BE TOO DETERMINISTIC. THUS WON`T TOTALLY
DISCOUNT CLOSER SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT.

AS FOR TEMPS...BITTERLY COLD TUE BEHIND DEPARTING MON NGT COASTAL
LOW. THEN COLD EASES WED AHEAD OF APPROACHING CLIPPER LOW FOLLOWED
BUT YET ANOTHER ARCTIC BLAST LATE IN THE WEEK BEHIND THE CLIPPER. AS
FOR INTO NEXT WEEKEND ENSEMBLE TRENDS SUGGEST TEMPS COLDER THAN
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM.../THROUGH MONDAY/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR...BUT LOW PROB FOR AREAS OF
MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.

VFR THIS EVENING DETERIORATES TO IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS IN MODERATE
TO HEAVY SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT TO DAYBREAK FROM WEST TO EAST.
IFR/LIFR IN MOD/HEAVY SNOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY MON. PTYPE
MAY TRANSITION TO A PERIOD OF SLEET/FREEZING RAIN AROUND MIDDAY
FROM PVD-TAN-PYM SOUTH AND CHANGING TO RAIN OVER THE OUTER
CAPE/ISLANDS. NE WIND GUSTS TO 30-35 KT DEVELOPING ACROSS E
COASTAL MA MONDAY...WITH 25 KT ACROSS RI AND REMAINDER OF E MA.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING OF
IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING OF
IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR ON
TUESDAY. COULD SEE SOME MVFR CIGS IN SCT SNOW SHOWERS ON
WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW RISK OF MVFR
ALONG SOUTHEAST MASS DEPENDING ON TRACK OF CLIPPER LOW.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY BUT
EXPECT SCA WAVES TO REMAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT FREEZING
SPRAY WILL PERSIST.

TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS/SEAS QUICKLY RAMP UP DURING MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
INTENSIFIES NEAR THE SOUTH COAST. GALE WATCHES CONTINUE. THE MAIN
FOCUS FOR GUSTS TO 40 KT MONDAY WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN MA COASTAL
WATERS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF CAPE COD...WITH LIGHTER WINDS OVER
THE SOUTH COASTAL WATER. SEAS BUILD TO 15+ FEET ACROSS OUR EASTERN
WATERS BY LATE MON AFTERNOON/EVENING.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE TO HIGH
FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT...BITTERLY COLD AIR MOVING OVER THE WATERS MONDAY
NIGHT WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. HAVE
ALSO ISSUED A FREEZING SPRAY WATCH.

TUESDAY...NW GALES LIKELY ALONG WITH FREEZING SPRAY...POSSIBLY
MODERATE TO HEAVY. MAINLY DRY WITH GOOD VSBY EXCEPT FAR OFFSHORE
WHERE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE COMMON.

WED...WINDS EASE AND BECOME SOUTHWEST AS CLIPPER LOW ENTERS THE
GREAT LAKES AND NY STATE. NOT AS COLD SO FREEZING SPRAY UNLIKELY.
VSBY MAY BRIEFLY LOWER IN A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW.

THU...ARCTIC FRONT WITH NW GALES BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE. MODERATE TO
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY POSSIBLE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
*** LOW RISK FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING MON NIGHT EASTERN MA
 COASTLINE ***

THE FIRST TIDE CYCLE MONDAY MORNING SHOULD NOT POSE ANY RISKS AS
WINDS WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR A LONG ENOUGH PERIOD OF TIME
TO PRODUCE THE WAVE ACTION OR SURGE NECESSARY FOR COASTAL
FLOODING. A SURGE OF 1 FOOT IS POSSIBLE BUT SEAS WILL BE WELL
UNDER 10 FT.

AS FOR THE MONDAY EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE...ASTRO TIDES ARE ABOUT
1 FT LOWER BUT WAVES WILL BE BUILDING TO 15 TO 20 FT. WE EXPECT
ABOUT A 1.5 TO 2.5 FT STORM SURGE BUT THIS MAY NOT OVERLAP THE
EVENING HIGH TIDE AND MAY OCCUR CLOSER TO LOW TIDE WITH SURGE
VALUES DECREASING TOWARD THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE AS WINDS TURN N.
IF THIS TIMING PLAYS OUT...THE PROBABILITY FOR ANY COASTAL
FLOODING WILL BE LOW. HOWEVER...WE ARE TALKING ABOUT ONLY 6 HOURS
AND IF THE MAX SURGE IS DELAYED AND OVERLAPS THE HIGH TIDE...THERE
WILL BE A HIGHER RISK OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WITH A LOW RISK OF
ISOLD MODERATE FLOODING...MAINLY FROM CAPE COD TO CAPE ANN WITH
PERHAPS THE HIGHEST RISK FROM HULL/COHASSET/SCITUATE/
MARSHFIELD/PLYMOUTH TO SANDWICH HARBOR. AGAIN...THIS WILL DEPEND
OM THE TIMING OF THE MAX SURGE OCCURING CLOSE TO HIGH TIDE WHICH
DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY AT THIS TIME.

WINDS...SEAS AND STORM SURGE WILL BE CONSIDERABLY LESS THAN THE
PREVIOUS COASTAL STORM BUT THERE COULD STILL BE SOME IMPACT
ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE COMMUNITIES SUCH AS MARSHFIELD MA THAT WERE
HIT HARD EARLIER THIS WEEK WHERE COASTAL STRUCTURES SUCH AS
SEAWALLS WERE DAMAGED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WITH EXTREMELY COLD AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW MONDAY
NIGHT...TEMPERATURES MAY FALL BACK CLOSE TO OR SURPASSING RECORD
LEVELS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AND THAT IS NOT TAKING INTO ACCOUNT
THE STRONG WINDS.

HERE ARE THE RECORD LOWS FOR TUESDAY 2/3...

BOSTON         -5 SET IN 1881
PROVIDENCE     -6 SET IN 1961
WORCESTER      -7 SET IN 1931, 1955 AND 1971
WINDSOR LOCKS  -3 SET IN 1955
BLUE HILL OBS  -7 SET IN 1955

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR MAZ023-024.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR MAZ002>022-026.
RI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR RIZ008.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR RIZ001>007.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ231>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ231-232-251.
     HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR ANZ231>235-237-250-251-254>256.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ231-
     232-250-251-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ233>235-237.
     GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ230-236.
     GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ250-251-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ250-
     254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...KJC/FRANK
MARINE...KJC/FRANK/NOCERA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KBOX 010932
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
432 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT THE REGION VERY LATER TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY EVENING WITH HEAVY SNOW FOR MANY LOCATIONS. BITTERLY
COLD WIND CHILLS FOLLOW LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
MODERATING TEMPS WEDNESDAY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME LIGHT SNOW
THEN VERY COLD CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
A COASTAL STORM WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE
WEEK BUT WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
ARCTIC FRONT APPROACHING THE CANADIAN BORDER WILL DROP SOUTH
ACROSS NEW ENG TODAY MOVING ACROSS SNE THIS AFTERNOON AND REACHING
THE SOUTH COAST TOWARD EVENING. MODELS INDICATE SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TODAY WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME LOWER CLOUDS...OTHERWISE
SUNSHINE FOR MOST AREAS WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING MID/HIGH
CLOUDS DURING THE DAY. MAX TEMPS WILL REACH 25 TO 30 DEGREES BUT
FALL INTO THE TEENS TOWARD EVENING IN FAR N ZONES AS ARCTIC AIR
DRAINS SOUTH. GUSTY WINDS ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS WILL
DIMINISH...OTHERWISE GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAJOR WINTER STORM VERY LATE TONIGHT INTO MON EVENING
* HEAVY SNOWFALL EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE REGION
* BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY IS SNOWFALL AMTS ACROSS RI AND SE MA DUE TO
  PTYPE ISSUES

OVERVIEW...

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A PROGRESSIVE BUT RATHER POTENT
MID LEVEL TROF WHICH MOVES EAST INTO SNE MON AND BECOMES
NEGATIVELY TILTED. THE SFC LOW TRACKS EAST FROM THE OH VALLEY AND
APPEARS TO JUMP/REDEVELOP ALONG THE MID ATLC COAST...TRACKING NEAR
OR JUST S OF LONG ISLAND TO ACK DURING MONDAY. WITH ARCTIC HIGH
IN PLACE TO THE NORTH...PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL COLD AIR IN PLACE BUT
WARMING ALOFT WILL MAKE FOR A TRICKY SNOWFALL FORECAST NEAR THE S
COAST. GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON QPF WITH 0.75-1.00" WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS ACROSS SE NEW ENG...BUT THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES WITH
THE THERMAL PROFILE. NAM IS THE COLDEST BUT LIKELY A RESULT OF IT
BEING FASTER WITH THE SFC LOW. GFS HAS TRENDED A BIT COLDER WHILE
ECMWF A BIT WARMER AND ONLY MINOR DIFFERENCES EXIST ALOFT. GIVEN
STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT ALL MODELS SHOW WARMING IN THE 850-700 MB
LAYER MOVING NORTH ALONG THE SNE COAST DURING MON. THE UNCERTAINTY
FOR THE SNOWFALL FORECAST IS DETERMINING HOW FAR N THE MIX LINE
GETS.

SYSTEM REMAINS AN OPEN WAVE AT 700 MB AS IT CROSSES CENTRAL NEW
ENG LATE MON SO NOT LOOKING AT TYPICAL BANDING SIGNAL ASSOCD WITH
STRONG MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. THIS WILL BE A CLASSIC STRONG
OVERRUNNING EVENT AS MILDER AIR AND MOISTURE OVERRUNS VERY STRONG
LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS SNE WITH ARCTIC TO THE NORTH.

1) TIMING AND PTYPE

SNOW DEVELOPS IN THE CT VALLEY BY MIDNIGHT THEN QUICKLY
OVERSPREADS THE REST OF SNE THROUGH DAYBREAK. THE SNOW WILL
QUICKLY BECOME HEAVY LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AND WILL
HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE MORNING COMMUTE. GOOD SNOW
GROWTH AROUND 12Z AND STRONG MID LEVEL OMEGA WILL RESULT IN A
GOOD FRONT END THUMP WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR
ACROSS THE REGION FOR SEVERAL HOURS IN THE MORNING.

THE UNCERTAINTY INCREASES CLOSER TO THE S COAST MID/LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON AS WARMER AIR ALOFT SURGES NORTHWARD. WE
BLENDED THE MODELS WHICH SUGGEST A MIX OR CHANGE TO SLEET BRIEFLY
GETTING TO MA/N RI BORDER BY MIDDAY BEFORE COLLAPSING SE DURING
THE AFTERNOON. FURTHER S...DEEPER WARM LAYER WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND POSSIBLY SOME
RAIN AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS. A CHANGE TO PLAIN RAIN IS MOST
LIKELY OVER THE ISLANDS. ANY RAIN OR MIXED PRECIP WILL CHANGE BACK
TO SNOW MID/LATE AFTERNOON BUT NOT UNTIL EVENING FOR THE
OUTER/CAPE ISLANDS.

THIS IS STILL A VERY TRICKY PTYPE FORECAST DUE TO THE STRONG
LOW/MID LEVEL TEMP GRADIENT SO PTYPE WILL BE VERY SENSITIVE TO
JUST A MINOR SHIFT IN THE SFC AND 850 MB LOW TRACK.

SNOWFALL IN THE AFTERNOON WILL NOT BE AS HEAVY AS THE MORNING AS
BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT WEAKENS AND SNOW GROWTH NOT QUITE AS
FAVORABLE...BUT STILL SOME DECENT SNOWFALL ESPECIALLY IN THE
NORTH.

2) SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS AND HEADLINES

WE HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN HEAVY SNOWFALL FOR MUCH OF THE REGION
WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW LIKELY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE
WHERE DEFINITELY NO MIXING ISSUES. EXPECT SNOW ACCUM AROUND A
FOOT FOR THIS REGION...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS AROUND 6 TO 10 INCHES
FURTHER S ACROSS RI AND SE MA DUE TO MIXING ISSUES. WE HAVE ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE FOR UP TO 6 INCHES NEAR THE S COAST TO UPGRADE TO A
WARNING. IN ADDITION THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR UP TO A TENTH OF AN
INCH OF ICE ACCRETION NEAR THE COAST. AMOUNTS MAY FALL SHORT OF 6
INCHES ON CAPE COD...BUT WE INCLUDED THEM IN THE WARNING DUE TO
COMBINATION OF SNOW AND SOME ICE.

FOR THE ISLANDS...WE WILL GO WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
ACCUM 2 TO 5 INCHES...LEAST ON NANTUCKET.

3) STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW

NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH EXPECTED ALONG THE EASTERN
MASS COAST MONDAY AS STORM INTENSIFIES AND PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES. THIS WILL RESULT IN POOR VISIBILITY ALONG WITH BLOWING
AND DRIFTING SNOW. ITS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW LOCATIONS ALONG THE
COAST COULD SEE NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FOR A VERY SHORT
TIME...BUT STORM DOESN/T SEEM TO WARRANT THOSE TYPE OF HEADLINES.

4) TEMPS

A VERY STRONG COASTAL FRONT WILL SET UP DURING MONDAY WITH TEMPS
IN THE TEENS NORTH OF I-84 TO I-90 CORRIDOR AND WEST OF I-495
WITH EVEN SOME SINGLE NUMBERS FAR N/NW MA...WHILE TEMPS WILL REACH
THE LOWER TO MID 30S SE MA. A FLASH FREEZE IS LIKELY ACROSS SE
COASTAL MA AND CAPE/ISLANDS IN THE EVENING AS THE COASTAL FRONT
MOVES THROUGH AND TEMPS PLUMMET.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* COLD PATTERN CONTINUES THRU NEXT WEEKEND
* CLIPPER LOW APPEARING MORE LIKELY THAN COASTAL LOW WED/THU

GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG 12Z DETERMINISTIC...12Z GEFS AND 00Z ECENS
ENSEMBLES THAT THE POLAR JET WILL DOMINATE THE NORTHERN TIER STATES
INCLUDING NEW ENGLAND THIS PERIOD. THIS COMBINED WITH STREAMS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNPHASED WILL SUPPORT MAINLY DRY WEATHER THIS
PERIOD. ONE CAVEAT WILL BE CLIPPER LOW ENTERING THE NORTHEAST
WED/WED NIGHT. EARLIER MODEL RUNS SUGGESTED SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT SOUTHWEST OF NEW ENGLAND...WITH
POSSIBLE COASTAL-OCEAN STORM IMPACTING OUR REGION AROUND THU.
HOWEVER LATEST GUID INCLUDING ENSEMBLES SUGGEST MID LEVEL TROUGH
WILL LACK SUFFICIENT AMPLITUDE TO BACK THE FLOW FOR A SECONDARY LOW
TO IMPACT THE REGION. THEREFORE LEANING TOWARD A MORE OFFSHORE TRACK
AND JUST A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE WED/WED NIGHT. HOWEVER AT
THIS TIME RANGE CAN/T BE TOO DETERMINISTIC. THUS WON`T TOTALLY
DISCOUNT CLOSER SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT.

AS FOR TEMPS...BITTERLY COLD TUE BEHIND DEPARTING MON NGT COASTAL
LOW. THEN COLD EASES WED AHEAD OF APPROACHING CLIPPER LOW FOLLOWED
BUT YET ANOTHER ARCTIC BLAST LATE IN THE WEEK BEHIND THE CLIPPER. AS
FOR INTO NEXT WEEKEND ENSEMBLE TRENDS SUGGEST TEMPS COLDER THAN
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM.../THROUGH MONDAY/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR...BUT LOW PROB FOR AREAS OF
MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.

VFR THIS EVENING DETERIORATES TO IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS IN MODERATE
TO HEAVY SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT TO DAYBREAK FROM WEST TO EAST.
IFR/LIFR IN MOD/HEAVY SNOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY MON. PTYPE
MAY TRANSITION TO A PERIOD OF SLEET/FREEZING RAIN AROUND MIDDAY
FROM PVD-TAN-PYM SOUTH AND CHANGING TO RAIN OVER THE OUTER
CAPE/ISLANDS. NE WIND GUSTS TO 30-35 KT DEVELOPING ACROSS E
COASTAL MA MONDAY...WITH 25 KT ACROSS RI AND REMAINDER OF E MA.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING OF
IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING OF
IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR ON
TUESDAY. COULD SEE SOME MVFR CIGS IN SCT SNOW SHOWERS ON
WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW RISK OF MVFR
ALONG SOUTHEAST MASS DEPENDING ON TRACK OF CLIPPER LOW.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY BUT
EXPECT SCA WAVES TO REMAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT FREEZING
SPRAY WILL PERSIST.

TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS/SEAS QUICKLY RAMP UP DURING MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
INTENSIFIES NEAR THE SOUTH COAST. GALE WATCHES CONTINUE. THE MAIN
FOCUS FOR GUSTS TO 40 KT MONDAY WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN MA COASTAL
WATERS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF CAPE COD...WITH LIGHTER WINDS OVER
THE SOUTH COASTAL WATER. SEAS BUILD TO 15+ FEET ACROSS OUR EASTERN
WATERS BY LATE MON AFTERNOON/EVENING.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE TO HIGH
FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT...BITTERLY COLD AIR MOVING OVER THE WATERS MONDAY
NIGHT WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. HAVE
ALSO ISSUED A FREEZING SPRAY WATCH.

TUESDAY...NW GALES LIKELY ALONG WITH FREEZING SPRAY...POSSIBLY
MODERATE TO HEAVY. MAINLY DRY WITH GOOD VSBY EXCEPT FAR OFFSHORE
WHERE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE COMMON.

WED...WINDS EASE AND BECOME SOUTHWEST AS CLIPPER LOW ENTERS THE
GREAT LAKES AND NY STATE. NOT AS COLD SO FREEZING SPRAY UNLIKELY.
VSBY MAY BRIEFLY LOWER IN A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW.

THU...ARCTIC FRONT WITH NW GALES BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE. MODERATE TO
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY POSSIBLE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
*** LOW RISK FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING MON NIGHT EASTERN MA
 COASTLINE ***

THE FIRST TIDE CYCLE MONDAY MORNING SHOULD NOT POSE ANY RISKS AS
WINDS WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR A LONG ENOUGH PERIOD OF TIME
TO PRODUCE THE WAVE ACTION OR SURGE NECESSARY FOR COASTAL
FLOODING. A SURGE OF 1 FOOT IS POSSIBLE BUT SEAS WILL BE WELL
UNDER 10 FT.

AS FOR THE MONDAY EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE...ASTRO TIDES ARE ABOUT
1 FT LOWER BUT WAVES WILL BE BUILDING TO 15 TO 20 FT. WE EXPECT
ABOUT A 1.5 TO 2.5 FT STORM SURGE BUT THIS MAY NOT OVERLAP THE
EVENING HIGH TIDE AND MAY OCCUR CLOSER TO LOW TIDE WITH SURGE
VALUES DECREASING TOWARD THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE AS WINDS TURN N.
IF THIS TIMING PLAYS OUT...THE PROBABILITY FOR ANY COASTAL
FLOODING WILL BE LOW. HOWEVER...WE ARE TALKING ABOUT ONLY 6 HOURS
AND IF THE MAX SURGE IS DELAYED AND OVERLAPS THE HIGH TIDE...THERE
WILL BE A HIGHER RISK OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WITH A LOW RISK OF
ISOLD MODERATE FLOODING...MAINLY FROM CAPE COD TO CAPE ANN WITH
PERHAPS THE HIGHEST RISK FROM HULL/COHASSET/SCITUATE/
MARSHFIELD/PLYMOUTH TO SANDWICH HARBOR. AGAIN...THIS WILL DEPEND
OM THE TIMING OF THE MAX SURGE OCCURING CLOSE TO HIGH TIDE WHICH
DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY AT THIS TIME.

WINDS...SEAS AND STORM SURGE WILL BE CONSIDERABLY LESS THAN THE
PREVIOUS COASTAL STORM BUT THERE COULD STILL BE SOME IMPACT
ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE COMMUNITIES SUCH AS MARSHFIELD MA THAT WERE
HIT HARD EARLIER THIS WEEK WHERE COASTAL STRUCTURES SUCH AS
SEAWALLS WERE DAMAGED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WITH EXTREMELY COLD AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW MONDAY
NIGHT...TEMPERATURES MAY FALL BACK CLOSE TO OR SURPASSING RECORD
LEVELS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AND THAT IS NOT TAKING INTO ACCOUNT
THE STRONG WINDS.

HERE ARE THE RECORD LOWS FOR TUESDAY 2/3...

BOSTON         -5 SET IN 1881
PROVIDENCE     -6 SET IN 1961
WORCESTER      -7 SET IN 1931, 1955 AND 1971
WINDSOR LOCKS  -3 SET IN 1955
BLUE HILL OBS  -7 SET IN 1955

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR MAZ023-024.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR MAZ002>022-026.
RI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR RIZ008.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR RIZ001>007.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ231>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ231-232-251.
     HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR ANZ231>235-237-250-251-254>256.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ231-
     232-250-251-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ233>235-237.
     GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ230-236.
     GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ250-251-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ250-
     254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...KJC/FRANK
MARINE...KJC/FRANK/NOCERA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KBOX 010932
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
432 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT THE REGION VERY LATER TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY EVENING WITH HEAVY SNOW FOR MANY LOCATIONS. BITTERLY
COLD WIND CHILLS FOLLOW LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
MODERATING TEMPS WEDNESDAY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME LIGHT SNOW
THEN VERY COLD CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
A COASTAL STORM WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE
WEEK BUT WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
ARCTIC FRONT APPROACHING THE CANADIAN BORDER WILL DROP SOUTH
ACROSS NEW ENG TODAY MOVING ACROSS SNE THIS AFTERNOON AND REACHING
THE SOUTH COAST TOWARD EVENING. MODELS INDICATE SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TODAY WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME LOWER CLOUDS...OTHERWISE
SUNSHINE FOR MOST AREAS WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING MID/HIGH
CLOUDS DURING THE DAY. MAX TEMPS WILL REACH 25 TO 30 DEGREES BUT
FALL INTO THE TEENS TOWARD EVENING IN FAR N ZONES AS ARCTIC AIR
DRAINS SOUTH. GUSTY WINDS ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS WILL
DIMINISH...OTHERWISE GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAJOR WINTER STORM VERY LATE TONIGHT INTO MON EVENING
* HEAVY SNOWFALL EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE REGION
* BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY IS SNOWFALL AMTS ACROSS RI AND SE MA DUE TO
  PTYPE ISSUES

OVERVIEW...

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A PROGRESSIVE BUT RATHER POTENT
MID LEVEL TROF WHICH MOVES EAST INTO SNE MON AND BECOMES
NEGATIVELY TILTED. THE SFC LOW TRACKS EAST FROM THE OH VALLEY AND
APPEARS TO JUMP/REDEVELOP ALONG THE MID ATLC COAST...TRACKING NEAR
OR JUST S OF LONG ISLAND TO ACK DURING MONDAY. WITH ARCTIC HIGH
IN PLACE TO THE NORTH...PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL COLD AIR IN PLACE BUT
WARMING ALOFT WILL MAKE FOR A TRICKY SNOWFALL FORECAST NEAR THE S
COAST. GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON QPF WITH 0.75-1.00" WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS ACROSS SE NEW ENG...BUT THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES WITH
THE THERMAL PROFILE. NAM IS THE COLDEST BUT LIKELY A RESULT OF IT
BEING FASTER WITH THE SFC LOW. GFS HAS TRENDED A BIT COLDER WHILE
ECMWF A BIT WARMER AND ONLY MINOR DIFFERENCES EXIST ALOFT. GIVEN
STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT ALL MODELS SHOW WARMING IN THE 850-700 MB
LAYER MOVING NORTH ALONG THE SNE COAST DURING MON. THE UNCERTAINTY
FOR THE SNOWFALL FORECAST IS DETERMINING HOW FAR N THE MIX LINE
GETS.

SYSTEM REMAINS AN OPEN WAVE AT 700 MB AS IT CROSSES CENTRAL NEW
ENG LATE MON SO NOT LOOKING AT TYPICAL BANDING SIGNAL ASSOCD WITH
STRONG MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. THIS WILL BE A CLASSIC STRONG
OVERRUNNING EVENT AS MILDER AIR AND MOISTURE OVERRUNS VERY STRONG
LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS SNE WITH ARCTIC TO THE NORTH.

1) TIMING AND PTYPE

SNOW DEVELOPS IN THE CT VALLEY BY MIDNIGHT THEN QUICKLY
OVERSPREADS THE REST OF SNE THROUGH DAYBREAK. THE SNOW WILL
QUICKLY BECOME HEAVY LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AND WILL
HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE MORNING COMMUTE. GOOD SNOW
GROWTH AROUND 12Z AND STRONG MID LEVEL OMEGA WILL RESULT IN A
GOOD FRONT END THUMP WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR
ACROSS THE REGION FOR SEVERAL HOURS IN THE MORNING.

THE UNCERTAINTY INCREASES CLOSER TO THE S COAST MID/LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON AS WARMER AIR ALOFT SURGES NORTHWARD. WE
BLENDED THE MODELS WHICH SUGGEST A MIX OR CHANGE TO SLEET BRIEFLY
GETTING TO MA/N RI BORDER BY MIDDAY BEFORE COLLAPSING SE DURING
THE AFTERNOON. FURTHER S...DEEPER WARM LAYER WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND POSSIBLY SOME
RAIN AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS. A CHANGE TO PLAIN RAIN IS MOST
LIKELY OVER THE ISLANDS. ANY RAIN OR MIXED PRECIP WILL CHANGE BACK
TO SNOW MID/LATE AFTERNOON BUT NOT UNTIL EVENING FOR THE
OUTER/CAPE ISLANDS.

THIS IS STILL A VERY TRICKY PTYPE FORECAST DUE TO THE STRONG
LOW/MID LEVEL TEMP GRADIENT SO PTYPE WILL BE VERY SENSITIVE TO
JUST A MINOR SHIFT IN THE SFC AND 850 MB LOW TRACK.

SNOWFALL IN THE AFTERNOON WILL NOT BE AS HEAVY AS THE MORNING AS
BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT WEAKENS AND SNOW GROWTH NOT QUITE AS
FAVORABLE...BUT STILL SOME DECENT SNOWFALL ESPECIALLY IN THE
NORTH.

2) SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS AND HEADLINES

WE HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN HEAVY SNOWFALL FOR MUCH OF THE REGION
WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW LIKELY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE
WHERE DEFINITELY NO MIXING ISSUES. EXPECT SNOW ACCUM AROUND A
FOOT FOR THIS REGION...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS AROUND 6 TO 10 INCHES
FURTHER S ACROSS RI AND SE MA DUE TO MIXING ISSUES. WE HAVE ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE FOR UP TO 6 INCHES NEAR THE S COAST TO UPGRADE TO A
WARNING. IN ADDITION THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR UP TO A TENTH OF AN
INCH OF ICE ACCRETION NEAR THE COAST. AMOUNTS MAY FALL SHORT OF 6
INCHES ON CAPE COD...BUT WE INCLUDED THEM IN THE WARNING DUE TO
COMBINATION OF SNOW AND SOME ICE.

FOR THE ISLANDS...WE WILL GO WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
ACCUM 2 TO 5 INCHES...LEAST ON NANTUCKET.

3) STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW

NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH EXPECTED ALONG THE EASTERN
MASS COAST MONDAY AS STORM INTENSIFIES AND PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES. THIS WILL RESULT IN POOR VISIBILITY ALONG WITH BLOWING
AND DRIFTING SNOW. ITS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW LOCATIONS ALONG THE
COAST COULD SEE NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FOR A VERY SHORT
TIME...BUT STORM DOESN/T SEEM TO WARRANT THOSE TYPE OF HEADLINES.

4) TEMPS

A VERY STRONG COASTAL FRONT WILL SET UP DURING MONDAY WITH TEMPS
IN THE TEENS NORTH OF I-84 TO I-90 CORRIDOR AND WEST OF I-495
WITH EVEN SOME SINGLE NUMBERS FAR N/NW MA...WHILE TEMPS WILL REACH
THE LOWER TO MID 30S SE MA. A FLASH FREEZE IS LIKELY ACROSS SE
COASTAL MA AND CAPE/ISLANDS IN THE EVENING AS THE COASTAL FRONT
MOVES THROUGH AND TEMPS PLUMMET.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* COLD PATTERN CONTINUES THRU NEXT WEEKEND
* CLIPPER LOW APPEARING MORE LIKELY THAN COASTAL LOW WED/THU

GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG 12Z DETERMINISTIC...12Z GEFS AND 00Z ECENS
ENSEMBLES THAT THE POLAR JET WILL DOMINATE THE NORTHERN TIER STATES
INCLUDING NEW ENGLAND THIS PERIOD. THIS COMBINED WITH STREAMS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNPHASED WILL SUPPORT MAINLY DRY WEATHER THIS
PERIOD. ONE CAVEAT WILL BE CLIPPER LOW ENTERING THE NORTHEAST
WED/WED NIGHT. EARLIER MODEL RUNS SUGGESTED SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT SOUTHWEST OF NEW ENGLAND...WITH
POSSIBLE COASTAL-OCEAN STORM IMPACTING OUR REGION AROUND THU.
HOWEVER LATEST GUID INCLUDING ENSEMBLES SUGGEST MID LEVEL TROUGH
WILL LACK SUFFICIENT AMPLITUDE TO BACK THE FLOW FOR A SECONDARY LOW
TO IMPACT THE REGION. THEREFORE LEANING TOWARD A MORE OFFSHORE TRACK
AND JUST A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE WED/WED NIGHT. HOWEVER AT
THIS TIME RANGE CAN/T BE TOO DETERMINISTIC. THUS WON`T TOTALLY
DISCOUNT CLOSER SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT.

AS FOR TEMPS...BITTERLY COLD TUE BEHIND DEPARTING MON NGT COASTAL
LOW. THEN COLD EASES WED AHEAD OF APPROACHING CLIPPER LOW FOLLOWED
BUT YET ANOTHER ARCTIC BLAST LATE IN THE WEEK BEHIND THE CLIPPER. AS
FOR INTO NEXT WEEKEND ENSEMBLE TRENDS SUGGEST TEMPS COLDER THAN
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM.../THROUGH MONDAY/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR...BUT LOW PROB FOR AREAS OF
MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.

VFR THIS EVENING DETERIORATES TO IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS IN MODERATE
TO HEAVY SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT TO DAYBREAK FROM WEST TO EAST.
IFR/LIFR IN MOD/HEAVY SNOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY MON. PTYPE
MAY TRANSITION TO A PERIOD OF SLEET/FREEZING RAIN AROUND MIDDAY
FROM PVD-TAN-PYM SOUTH AND CHANGING TO RAIN OVER THE OUTER
CAPE/ISLANDS. NE WIND GUSTS TO 30-35 KT DEVELOPING ACROSS E
COASTAL MA MONDAY...WITH 25 KT ACROSS RI AND REMAINDER OF E MA.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING OF
IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING OF
IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR ON
TUESDAY. COULD SEE SOME MVFR CIGS IN SCT SNOW SHOWERS ON
WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW RISK OF MVFR
ALONG SOUTHEAST MASS DEPENDING ON TRACK OF CLIPPER LOW.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY BUT
EXPECT SCA WAVES TO REMAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT FREEZING
SPRAY WILL PERSIST.

TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS/SEAS QUICKLY RAMP UP DURING MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
INTENSIFIES NEAR THE SOUTH COAST. GALE WATCHES CONTINUE. THE MAIN
FOCUS FOR GUSTS TO 40 KT MONDAY WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN MA COASTAL
WATERS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF CAPE COD...WITH LIGHTER WINDS OVER
THE SOUTH COASTAL WATER. SEAS BUILD TO 15+ FEET ACROSS OUR EASTERN
WATERS BY LATE MON AFTERNOON/EVENING.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE TO HIGH
FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT...BITTERLY COLD AIR MOVING OVER THE WATERS MONDAY
NIGHT WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. HAVE
ALSO ISSUED A FREEZING SPRAY WATCH.

TUESDAY...NW GALES LIKELY ALONG WITH FREEZING SPRAY...POSSIBLY
MODERATE TO HEAVY. MAINLY DRY WITH GOOD VSBY EXCEPT FAR OFFSHORE
WHERE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE COMMON.

WED...WINDS EASE AND BECOME SOUTHWEST AS CLIPPER LOW ENTERS THE
GREAT LAKES AND NY STATE. NOT AS COLD SO FREEZING SPRAY UNLIKELY.
VSBY MAY BRIEFLY LOWER IN A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW.

THU...ARCTIC FRONT WITH NW GALES BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE. MODERATE TO
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY POSSIBLE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
*** LOW RISK FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING MON NIGHT EASTERN MA
 COASTLINE ***

THE FIRST TIDE CYCLE MONDAY MORNING SHOULD NOT POSE ANY RISKS AS
WINDS WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR A LONG ENOUGH PERIOD OF TIME
TO PRODUCE THE WAVE ACTION OR SURGE NECESSARY FOR COASTAL
FLOODING. A SURGE OF 1 FOOT IS POSSIBLE BUT SEAS WILL BE WELL
UNDER 10 FT.

AS FOR THE MONDAY EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE...ASTRO TIDES ARE ABOUT
1 FT LOWER BUT WAVES WILL BE BUILDING TO 15 TO 20 FT. WE EXPECT
ABOUT A 1.5 TO 2.5 FT STORM SURGE BUT THIS MAY NOT OVERLAP THE
EVENING HIGH TIDE AND MAY OCCUR CLOSER TO LOW TIDE WITH SURGE
VALUES DECREASING TOWARD THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE AS WINDS TURN N.
IF THIS TIMING PLAYS OUT...THE PROBABILITY FOR ANY COASTAL
FLOODING WILL BE LOW. HOWEVER...WE ARE TALKING ABOUT ONLY 6 HOURS
AND IF THE MAX SURGE IS DELAYED AND OVERLAPS THE HIGH TIDE...THERE
WILL BE A HIGHER RISK OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WITH A LOW RISK OF
ISOLD MODERATE FLOODING...MAINLY FROM CAPE COD TO CAPE ANN WITH
PERHAPS THE HIGHEST RISK FROM HULL/COHASSET/SCITUATE/
MARSHFIELD/PLYMOUTH TO SANDWICH HARBOR. AGAIN...THIS WILL DEPEND
OM THE TIMING OF THE MAX SURGE OCCURING CLOSE TO HIGH TIDE WHICH
DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY AT THIS TIME.

WINDS...SEAS AND STORM SURGE WILL BE CONSIDERABLY LESS THAN THE
PREVIOUS COASTAL STORM BUT THERE COULD STILL BE SOME IMPACT
ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE COMMUNITIES SUCH AS MARSHFIELD MA THAT WERE
HIT HARD EARLIER THIS WEEK WHERE COASTAL STRUCTURES SUCH AS
SEAWALLS WERE DAMAGED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WITH EXTREMELY COLD AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW MONDAY
NIGHT...TEMPERATURES MAY FALL BACK CLOSE TO OR SURPASSING RECORD
LEVELS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AND THAT IS NOT TAKING INTO ACCOUNT
THE STRONG WINDS.

HERE ARE THE RECORD LOWS FOR TUESDAY 2/3...

BOSTON         -5 SET IN 1881
PROVIDENCE     -6 SET IN 1961
WORCESTER      -7 SET IN 1931, 1955 AND 1971
WINDSOR LOCKS  -3 SET IN 1955
BLUE HILL OBS  -7 SET IN 1955

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR MAZ023-024.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR MAZ002>022-026.
RI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR RIZ008.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR RIZ001>007.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ231>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ231-232-251.
     HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR ANZ231>235-237-250-251-254>256.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ231-
     232-250-251-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ233>235-237.
     GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ230-236.
     GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ250-251-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ250-
     254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...KJC/FRANK
MARINE...KJC/FRANK/NOCERA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KOKX 010911
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
411 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
TO THE NORTH. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT
AND PASSES JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND MONDAY. THE LOW TRACKS WELL
TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. AN ARCTIC FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY...THEN PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS HIGH
BUILDS TO THE SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTH ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK RIDGING ALOFT AHEAD OF UPSTREAM TROUGH CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY.
MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND LIFT ALONG
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE SOUTH...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. IN
BETWEEN...FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSES THROUGH AND REMAINS TO THE SOUTH
TODAY.

CHILLY MORNING TEMPS WILL RISE TO AROUND OR INTO THE LOWER 30S TODAY
PER MOS BLEND.

MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY...ALTHOUGH A FEW SNOW FLAKES MAY BE
OBSERVED LATE FOR WESTERN SECTIONS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND IN
RESPONSE TO WEAK LIFT IN WARM AIR ADVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
CHALLENGING WINTER FORECAST...WITH MIXED PRECIPITATION TYPE TO DEAL
WITH THIS TIME FRAME.

A SLIGHT NORTHWARD TREND TO THE SFC LOW TRACK IS NOTED.

STRONG LIFT AHEAD OF TROUGH...WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE TAPPED IN FROM
THE SOUTH...WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A HEAVY PRECIP EVENT.
ANALYSIS OF 00Z NWP SUITE INDICATES MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES QUICKLY ACROSS THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY THIS
EVENING...TRACKING TOWARD THE EAST COAST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
SURFACE LOW ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
EVENING MOVES EAST TRACKING ACROSS SRN PA TOWARD THE SRN OR
CENTRAL NJ COAST EARLY MONDAY. THE LOW TRACKS JUST SOUTH MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH BY MONDAY EVENING...WITH
SFC LOW TRACKING WELL TO THE EAST.

VERY TOUGH FORECAST FOR MULTIPLE REASONS. MODELS DO INDICATE LOW
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURRING AS H8 LOW TRACKS OVER OR JUST
NORTH OF NYC. AT THE SURFACE...WINDS REMAIN GENERALLY FROM THE EAST
TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE LOW AND TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

BY MONDAY...ENOUGH WARM AIR ALOFT MOVES IN...WITH NAM AND ECMWF
FAIRLY CLOSE WITH REGARD TO TEMPS ALOFT. GFS IS SLIGHTLY WARMER.
LOOKING AT SFC AND BOUNDARY LAYER...FOLLOWED A GRIDDED MOS...NAM
DOWNSCALE BLEND FOR SLOW WARMING IN EAST FLOW...MAINLY FOR EASTERN
LONG ISLAND AND POSSIBLY INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN LONG ISLAND AND
SRN PORTIONS OF NYC.

INTERESTINGLY...HIGH RES ARW AND NMM TRACK THE LOW JUST
SOUTH...BUT PROG THE COASTAL FRONT ACROSS LONG ISLAND...WHICH
SETS UP A LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT.
TEMPS IN THE 40S AS WINDS TURN SOUTH. THIS OBVIOUSLY WOULD BE
PROBLEMATIC AND WOULD REQUIRE A HUGE SHIFT IN THE FORECAST.
AGAIN...WILL FOLLOW THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF IN KEEPING THE LOW AND CSTL
FRONT JUST SOUTH...BUT WARMING EAST END OF LI AND SRN LI
SUFFICIENTLY TO RESULT IN RAIN. ACROSS THE INTERIOR...ENOUGH WARM
AIR ALOFT FOR SNOW MIXING WITH SLEET AND FREEZING
RAIN...STRETCHING SW TO NE ACROSS THE AREA.

GIVEN COLD WATER TEMPS...WOULD BELIEVE TEMPS DO NOT RISE MUCH
ABOVE 32 FOR LONG ISLAND AND INTO NYC. WILL CONVERT THE WATCHES TO
WARNINGS...EXCEPT EASTERN LONG ISLAND...SOUTHERN SUFFOLK AND
SOUTHERN NASSAU. GIVEN THE HIGH LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY...WILL ALLOW
THE DAY SHIFT ONE MORE LOOK TO DETERMINE CONVERSION TO WARNINGS OR
TO ADVISORIES. ANY FURTHER NORTH SHIFT TO SFC LOW AND H8 LOW WOULD
RESULT IN MORE LIQUID.

IN ADDITION...FREEZING RAIN A CONCERN FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA.

THE BOTTOM LINE IS...HIGH IMPACT FOR MORNING COMMUTE WARRANTS A
WARNING FOR MOST OF THE AREA. CLOSER TO THE COAST...SNOW TO
RAIN/FZRA/IP. THEN BACK TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING AS DEFORMATION BAND
MOVES THROUGH ON THE BACK SIDE AS THE LOW DEPARTS LATE IN THE DAY
MONDAY.

INTERIOR...MAINLY SNOW...WITH POSSIBLY SOME SLEET MONDAY MORNING.

EASTERN/SRN LONG ISLAND...SNOW TO RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN (DEPENDING
ON THOSE SFC TEMPS)...THEN POSSIBLY BACK TO SNOW.

***IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT MANY COASTAL AREA SNOW TOTAL
 FORECASTS ARE FOR SNOW AHEAD OF WINTRY MIX TRANSITION...AND AFTER
 WINTRY MIX CHANGES BACK TO SNOW. HOWEVER...ANY RAIN WILL LIKELY
 WASH THE SNOW AWAY...LEAVING SLUSHY CONDITIONS AND LOWER TOTALS AS
 A RESULT***

SO...MORNING COMMUTE WILL LIKELY BE A MESS ALL CWA. THE AFTERNOON
COMMUTE WILL LIKELY BE PROBLEMATIC AS WELL FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
ANY LEFTOVER SLUSH WILL FREEZE AS ARCTIC AIR RUSHES BACK IN.
EXPECT ICY CONDITIONS LATE IN THE DAY...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS THAT
CHANGE TO RAIN LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

HEAVIEST PRECIP IS LATE TONIGHT (09-11Z THROUGH 16-18Z) WHEN
GREATEST LIFT IS REALIZED.

ANY LINGERING LIGHT SNOW MONDAY EVENING ENDS AS THE TROUGH MOVES
EAST/ GUSTY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL USHER IN VERY COLD AIR. LOW TEMPS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT SHOULD KEEP THINGS DRY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A
WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES ON WEDNESDAY...WITH A STRONGER SHORTWAVE
APPROACHING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...JUST BEHIND AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT AT
THE SURFACE. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH FORCING WITH THE SHORTWAVES AND
THE FRONT TO PRODUCE ISOLD-SCT -SHSN WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THERE REMAIN MODEL DIFFERENCES FROM THURSDAY ON. BOTH THE ECMWF AND
CMC SUGGEST THAT THE ARCTIC FRONT BECOME AN ANAFRONT WITH SNOW
BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...AND THE CMC GOES FARTHER
AND BRINGS A COASTAL LOW ALONG IT CLOSE ENOUGH TO IMPACT THE AREA.
THE GFS GENERALLY KEEP THINGS DRY THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW
WENT WITH CHANCE POPS ON THURSDAY...EXCEPT SLIGHT CHANCE FAR N
TIER...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THURSDAY NIGHT...EXCEPT DRY FAR NNW
TIER OF THE CWA.

ALL MODELS AGREE SHOULD BE DRY FRIDAY-SATURDAY ON NW FLOW ALOFT.

MAIN STORY OF THE EXTENDED WILL BE BITTERLY COLD AIR ARRIVING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGHS WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S AND LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WIND
CHILLS SHOULD BE BELOW ZERO THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING...AND
POSSIBLY BE NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER NW INTERIOR ZONES.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
   **HIGH IMPACT EVENT TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY**

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TERMINALS WEAKENS EARLY THIS MORNING AS A
WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE APPROACH. THE WARM FRONT WILL
BE IN THE VICINITY BY 00Z MONDAY. LIGHT SNOW COULD BE DEVELOPING BY
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...STEADY SNOW IS EXPECTED 00Z TO 02Z
MONDAY ACROSS THE NYC AREA TERMINALS WITH CONDITIONS LOWERING TO
IFR. THE SNOW SPREADS EAST...REACHING EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND KGON
AROUND 04Z.

WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND UNDER 10 KT...WILL BACK TO SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH DURING SUNDAY...BECOMING EAST SOUTHEAST SUNDAY EVENING...AND
INCREASING TO 10 KT TO 15 KT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 09Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.LATE TONIGHT-MONDAY...IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW. A WINTRY MIX OF
SLEET...SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN BECOMES LIKELY EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AT THE NYC METRO TERMINALS AND ACROSS LONG ISLAND. THE WINTRY MIX
PUSHES FARTHER NORTH DURING MONDAY MORNING AND CONTINUES INTO THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE GOING BACK TO ALL SNOW BEFORE ENDING MONDAY EVENING.
.MONDAY NIGHT...BECOMING VFR AS SNOW COMES TO AN END. N-NW WIND 15
TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT.
.TUESDAY...VFR.
.WEDNESDAY...VFR. A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOCALLY MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS.
.THURSDAY...VFR. NW GUSTS 20 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS HAVE FALLEN BELOW SCA LEVELS ON THE COASTAL OCEAN
WATERS...SO THE SCA THAT WAS IN EFFECT THROUGH 6AM THIS MORNING
THERE HAS BEEN CANCELLED. THE REGION WILL BE UNDER A RELATIVELY
RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH THIS EVENING...SO SUB-SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

WINDS INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ON ALL WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT
AND PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY...SO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
HOISTED ACCORDINGLY. GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ARE PROBABLE MONDAY NIGHT
ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS...SO A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED THEN
FOR THOSE WATERS. FOR THE NON-OCEAN WATERS...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...SO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THESE
WATERS LAST THROUGH THEN. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR GALE FORCE
WIND GUSTS ON THE NON-OCEAN WATERS AS WELL MONDAY NIGHT.

SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ON ALL WATERS
TUESDAY...AND POSSIBLY GALE FORCE WINDS GUSTS IN THE MORNING ON THE
COASTAL OCEAN WATERS. CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH
FOR ANY HEADLINES ON TUESDAY YET.

SUB-SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE NON-OCEAN WATERS
TUESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY WITH WINDS 15 KT OR LESS. ON THE OCEAN WATERS
SMALL CRAFT LEVEL SEAS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE TIME FRAME...WITH
THE BEST CHANCE WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY THOUGH A COMBINATION OF WINDS
JUST UNDER SMALL CRAFT LEVELS AND SWELLS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GENERALLY 1 TO 1 1/2 INCHES OF LIQUID FORECAST WITH THE SYSTEM
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. MOST OF THIS WILL BE SNOW AND SLEET
ACROSS NE NJ...LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND CT.

ACROSS LI/NYC THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF HEAVY
RAIN. AS SUCH...URBAN FLOODING ISSUES ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
DUE TO CLOGGED SNOW COVERED DRAINS.

NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PCPN IS FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT FOR THE HIGH TIDE ON MONDAY...THAT
DEPARTURES WILL REMAIN 1 TO 1.5 FEET BELOW THAT REQUIRED FOR COASTAL
FLOODING. WITH DEPARTURES OF 1.5-2 FT REQUIRED AND ONLY .5 TO 1 FT
DEPARTURES CURRENTLY FORECAST.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR NYZ079>081-179.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR NYZ067>075-078-176>178.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345.
     GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/PW
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/PW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MALOIT









000
FXUS61 KOKX 010911
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
411 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
TO THE NORTH. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT
AND PASSES JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND MONDAY. THE LOW TRACKS WELL
TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. AN ARCTIC FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY...THEN PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS HIGH
BUILDS TO THE SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTH ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK RIDGING ALOFT AHEAD OF UPSTREAM TROUGH CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY.
MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND LIFT ALONG
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE SOUTH...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. IN
BETWEEN...FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSES THROUGH AND REMAINS TO THE SOUTH
TODAY.

CHILLY MORNING TEMPS WILL RISE TO AROUND OR INTO THE LOWER 30S TODAY
PER MOS BLEND.

MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY...ALTHOUGH A FEW SNOW FLAKES MAY BE
OBSERVED LATE FOR WESTERN SECTIONS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND IN
RESPONSE TO WEAK LIFT IN WARM AIR ADVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
CHALLENGING WINTER FORECAST...WITH MIXED PRECIPITATION TYPE TO DEAL
WITH THIS TIME FRAME.

A SLIGHT NORTHWARD TREND TO THE SFC LOW TRACK IS NOTED.

STRONG LIFT AHEAD OF TROUGH...WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE TAPPED IN FROM
THE SOUTH...WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A HEAVY PRECIP EVENT.
ANALYSIS OF 00Z NWP SUITE INDICATES MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES QUICKLY ACROSS THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY THIS
EVENING...TRACKING TOWARD THE EAST COAST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
SURFACE LOW ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
EVENING MOVES EAST TRACKING ACROSS SRN PA TOWARD THE SRN OR
CENTRAL NJ COAST EARLY MONDAY. THE LOW TRACKS JUST SOUTH MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH BY MONDAY EVENING...WITH
SFC LOW TRACKING WELL TO THE EAST.

VERY TOUGH FORECAST FOR MULTIPLE REASONS. MODELS DO INDICATE LOW
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURRING AS H8 LOW TRACKS OVER OR JUST
NORTH OF NYC. AT THE SURFACE...WINDS REMAIN GENERALLY FROM THE EAST
TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE LOW AND TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

BY MONDAY...ENOUGH WARM AIR ALOFT MOVES IN...WITH NAM AND ECMWF
FAIRLY CLOSE WITH REGARD TO TEMPS ALOFT. GFS IS SLIGHTLY WARMER.
LOOKING AT SFC AND BOUNDARY LAYER...FOLLOWED A GRIDDED MOS...NAM
DOWNSCALE BLEND FOR SLOW WARMING IN EAST FLOW...MAINLY FOR EASTERN
LONG ISLAND AND POSSIBLY INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN LONG ISLAND AND
SRN PORTIONS OF NYC.

INTERESTINGLY...HIGH RES ARW AND NMM TRACK THE LOW JUST
SOUTH...BUT PROG THE COASTAL FRONT ACROSS LONG ISLAND...WHICH
SETS UP A LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT.
TEMPS IN THE 40S AS WINDS TURN SOUTH. THIS OBVIOUSLY WOULD BE
PROBLEMATIC AND WOULD REQUIRE A HUGE SHIFT IN THE FORECAST.
AGAIN...WILL FOLLOW THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF IN KEEPING THE LOW AND CSTL
FRONT JUST SOUTH...BUT WARMING EAST END OF LI AND SRN LI
SUFFICIENTLY TO RESULT IN RAIN. ACROSS THE INTERIOR...ENOUGH WARM
AIR ALOFT FOR SNOW MIXING WITH SLEET AND FREEZING
RAIN...STRETCHING SW TO NE ACROSS THE AREA.

GIVEN COLD WATER TEMPS...WOULD BELIEVE TEMPS DO NOT RISE MUCH
ABOVE 32 FOR LONG ISLAND AND INTO NYC. WILL CONVERT THE WATCHES TO
WARNINGS...EXCEPT EASTERN LONG ISLAND...SOUTHERN SUFFOLK AND
SOUTHERN NASSAU. GIVEN THE HIGH LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY...WILL ALLOW
THE DAY SHIFT ONE MORE LOOK TO DETERMINE CONVERSION TO WARNINGS OR
TO ADVISORIES. ANY FURTHER NORTH SHIFT TO SFC LOW AND H8 LOW WOULD
RESULT IN MORE LIQUID.

IN ADDITION...FREEZING RAIN A CONCERN FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA.

THE BOTTOM LINE IS...HIGH IMPACT FOR MORNING COMMUTE WARRANTS A
WARNING FOR MOST OF THE AREA. CLOSER TO THE COAST...SNOW TO
RAIN/FZRA/IP. THEN BACK TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING AS DEFORMATION BAND
MOVES THROUGH ON THE BACK SIDE AS THE LOW DEPARTS LATE IN THE DAY
MONDAY.

INTERIOR...MAINLY SNOW...WITH POSSIBLY SOME SLEET MONDAY MORNING.

EASTERN/SRN LONG ISLAND...SNOW TO RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN (DEPENDING
ON THOSE SFC TEMPS)...THEN POSSIBLY BACK TO SNOW.

***IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT MANY COASTAL AREA SNOW TOTAL
 FORECASTS ARE FOR SNOW AHEAD OF WINTRY MIX TRANSITION...AND AFTER
 WINTRY MIX CHANGES BACK TO SNOW. HOWEVER...ANY RAIN WILL LIKELY
 WASH THE SNOW AWAY...LEAVING SLUSHY CONDITIONS AND LOWER TOTALS AS
 A RESULT***

SO...MORNING COMMUTE WILL LIKELY BE A MESS ALL CWA. THE AFTERNOON
COMMUTE WILL LIKELY BE PROBLEMATIC AS WELL FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
ANY LEFTOVER SLUSH WILL FREEZE AS ARCTIC AIR RUSHES BACK IN.
EXPECT ICY CONDITIONS LATE IN THE DAY...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS THAT
CHANGE TO RAIN LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

HEAVIEST PRECIP IS LATE TONIGHT (09-11Z THROUGH 16-18Z) WHEN
GREATEST LIFT IS REALIZED.

ANY LINGERING LIGHT SNOW MONDAY EVENING ENDS AS THE TROUGH MOVES
EAST/ GUSTY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL USHER IN VERY COLD AIR. LOW TEMPS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT SHOULD KEEP THINGS DRY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A
WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES ON WEDNESDAY...WITH A STRONGER SHORTWAVE
APPROACHING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...JUST BEHIND AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT AT
THE SURFACE. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH FORCING WITH THE SHORTWAVES AND
THE FRONT TO PRODUCE ISOLD-SCT -SHSN WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THERE REMAIN MODEL DIFFERENCES FROM THURSDAY ON. BOTH THE ECMWF AND
CMC SUGGEST THAT THE ARCTIC FRONT BECOME AN ANAFRONT WITH SNOW
BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...AND THE CMC GOES FARTHER
AND BRINGS A COASTAL LOW ALONG IT CLOSE ENOUGH TO IMPACT THE AREA.
THE GFS GENERALLY KEEP THINGS DRY THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW
WENT WITH CHANCE POPS ON THURSDAY...EXCEPT SLIGHT CHANCE FAR N
TIER...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THURSDAY NIGHT...EXCEPT DRY FAR NNW
TIER OF THE CWA.

ALL MODELS AGREE SHOULD BE DRY FRIDAY-SATURDAY ON NW FLOW ALOFT.

MAIN STORY OF THE EXTENDED WILL BE BITTERLY COLD AIR ARRIVING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGHS WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S AND LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WIND
CHILLS SHOULD BE BELOW ZERO THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING...AND
POSSIBLY BE NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER NW INTERIOR ZONES.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
   **HIGH IMPACT EVENT TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY**

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TERMINALS WEAKENS EARLY THIS MORNING AS A
WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE APPROACH. THE WARM FRONT WILL
BE IN THE VICINITY BY 00Z MONDAY. LIGHT SNOW COULD BE DEVELOPING BY
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...STEADY SNOW IS EXPECTED 00Z TO 02Z
MONDAY ACROSS THE NYC AREA TERMINALS WITH CONDITIONS LOWERING TO
IFR. THE SNOW SPREADS EAST...REACHING EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND KGON
AROUND 04Z.

WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND UNDER 10 KT...WILL BACK TO SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH DURING SUNDAY...BECOMING EAST SOUTHEAST SUNDAY EVENING...AND
INCREASING TO 10 KT TO 15 KT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 09Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.LATE TONIGHT-MONDAY...IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW. A WINTRY MIX OF
SLEET...SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN BECOMES LIKELY EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AT THE NYC METRO TERMINALS AND ACROSS LONG ISLAND. THE WINTRY MIX
PUSHES FARTHER NORTH DURING MONDAY MORNING AND CONTINUES INTO THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE GOING BACK TO ALL SNOW BEFORE ENDING MONDAY EVENING.
.MONDAY NIGHT...BECOMING VFR AS SNOW COMES TO AN END. N-NW WIND 15
TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT.
.TUESDAY...VFR.
.WEDNESDAY...VFR. A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOCALLY MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS.
.THURSDAY...VFR. NW GUSTS 20 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS HAVE FALLEN BELOW SCA LEVELS ON THE COASTAL OCEAN
WATERS...SO THE SCA THAT WAS IN EFFECT THROUGH 6AM THIS MORNING
THERE HAS BEEN CANCELLED. THE REGION WILL BE UNDER A RELATIVELY
RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH THIS EVENING...SO SUB-SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

WINDS INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ON ALL WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT
AND PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY...SO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
HOISTED ACCORDINGLY. GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ARE PROBABLE MONDAY NIGHT
ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS...SO A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED THEN
FOR THOSE WATERS. FOR THE NON-OCEAN WATERS...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...SO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THESE
WATERS LAST THROUGH THEN. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR GALE FORCE
WIND GUSTS ON THE NON-OCEAN WATERS AS WELL MONDAY NIGHT.

SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ON ALL WATERS
TUESDAY...AND POSSIBLY GALE FORCE WINDS GUSTS IN THE MORNING ON THE
COASTAL OCEAN WATERS. CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH
FOR ANY HEADLINES ON TUESDAY YET.

SUB-SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE NON-OCEAN WATERS
TUESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY WITH WINDS 15 KT OR LESS. ON THE OCEAN WATERS
SMALL CRAFT LEVEL SEAS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE TIME FRAME...WITH
THE BEST CHANCE WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY THOUGH A COMBINATION OF WINDS
JUST UNDER SMALL CRAFT LEVELS AND SWELLS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GENERALLY 1 TO 1 1/2 INCHES OF LIQUID FORECAST WITH THE SYSTEM
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. MOST OF THIS WILL BE SNOW AND SLEET
ACROSS NE NJ...LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND CT.

ACROSS LI/NYC THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF HEAVY
RAIN. AS SUCH...URBAN FLOODING ISSUES ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
DUE TO CLOGGED SNOW COVERED DRAINS.

NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PCPN IS FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT FOR THE HIGH TIDE ON MONDAY...THAT
DEPARTURES WILL REMAIN 1 TO 1.5 FEET BELOW THAT REQUIRED FOR COASTAL
FLOODING. WITH DEPARTURES OF 1.5-2 FT REQUIRED AND ONLY .5 TO 1 FT
DEPARTURES CURRENTLY FORECAST.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR NYZ079>081-179.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR NYZ067>075-078-176>178.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345.
     GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/PW
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/PW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MALOIT








000
FXUS61 KALY 010817
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
317 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY. IT WILL
NOT BE AS COLD AS SATURDAY...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE
BELOW NORMAL. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT
AND MONDAY WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO THE
AREA. THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEFORE SUNRISE
MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 300 AM...A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WAS LOCATED OVER THE EAST END
OF LAKE ONTARIO. THIS MOISTURE STARVED CLIPPER AND ITS ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION TODAY. THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL NEAR THE PA/MA BORDER AND CNTRL NJ
WESTWARD INTO THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY. A 1030 HPA OR SFC
ANTICYCLONE WILL BUILD IN FROM SE OF JAMES BAY. THE SKIES MAY
BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY OVER THE NRN TIER OF THE FCST AREA. H850
TEMPS FALL TO -10C TO -15C NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY...AND -8C TO
-10C TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. MAX TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN
SATURDAY...BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL BY 5 TO 15 DEGREES WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST
AND TEENS TO LOWER 20S TO THE NORTH AND WEST...WITH SOME SINGLE
DIGITS OVER THE SRN DACKS.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE SRN TIER IN THE AFTERNOON...AND
WILL THICKEN AND LOWER TOWARDS 6 PM.  SOME LIGHT OVER RUNNING
SNOWFALL MAY REACH THE SE CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY BTWN 4-6
PM. SOME SLIGHT AND LOW CHC POPS WERE INTRODUCED THERE...BUT A DRY
COLUMN MAY YIELD QUITE A BIT OF VIRGA AT THE ONSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT AND MONDAY A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL EVENT IS
EXPECTED AS A NORTHERN STEAM SHORT WAVE COMBINES WITH SOUTHERN
STREAM MOISTURE. THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEFORE
SUNRISE MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING WITH SNOW
LINGERING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE TAPERING OFF MONDAY EVENING.

ALL OF THE INGREDIENTS ARE IN PLACE FOR A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AS
A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
LATE THIS EVENING TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST LATE TONIGHT AND
THEN PASSES SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND ON MONDAY. THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE ISTENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS OUR REGION AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM WITH SOME FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AT H7 AROUND 18Z ON MONDAY
AND A DECENT THETA E PLUME H10-H8 DURING MONDAY MORNING WHEN THE
SNOW SHOULD BE THE HEAVIEST. PLUME DIAGRAMS FOR ALBANY ARE
CENTERED BTWN 0.6 AND 1.0 INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT. SNOW TO
LIQUID RATIOS SHOULD BE QUITE HIGH FOR THIS STORM GENERALLY IN THE
15-20:1 RANGE. WITH ALL OF THIS TAKEN INTO CONSIDERATION HAVE
UPGRADED THE FINAL FOUR ZONES UP NORTH TO A WARNING SUCH THAT NOW
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IS IN A WARNING. EXPECTED SNOWFALL TOTALS
ARE 6 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES WITH 8 TO 16
INCHES ELSEWHERE. THE HIGHEST TOTALS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL TACONICS...BERKSHIRES AND
SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

BEHIND THIS STORM ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR DESCENDS ACROSS OUR REGION.
THIS ALONG WITH A FRESH SNOW COVER WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO
PLUMMET MONDAY NIGHT. LOWS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DROP TO ZERO OR
BELOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH 10 DEGREES BELOW ZERO AND
COLDER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. WE MAY ONCE AGAIN NEED
WIND CHILL WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING AND HAVE HIGHLIGHTED IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

ON TUESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO OUR REGION AND
THEN PASS TO OUR EAST LATE IN THE DAY. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE VERY COLD WITH READINGS ONLY IN THE TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOW...MAINLY LIGHT...ASSOCIATED WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE
APPROACHING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC
LIFT...PRIMARILY CONFINED TO UPSLOPE-FAVORED AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. ANY ACCUMULATIONS TUESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT...GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH.

THE CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED BETTER DYNAMICS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THU...WITH A LIGHT SNOWFALL
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. EXACT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE STILL
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...BUT A COUPLE OF INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA IS POSSIBLE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

ONE THING TO KEEP AN EYE ON REGARDING THIS CLIPPER...IS THAT THERE
IS SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR LATER WED INTO THU AS TO WHETHER SOME
SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY/MOISTURE...CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS NW
MEXICO...TRANSLATES NORTHEAST AND BECOMES PARTIALLY PHASED WITH THE
NORTHERN STREAM PV ANOMALY. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...AS THE 00Z/01 ECMWF
AND A FEW GEFS MEMBERS SUGGEST...THAN A MORE PROLONGED PERIOD OF
SNOW...AND POSSIBLY GREATER AMOUNTS COULD RESULT SOMETIME BETWEEN
WED AND EARLY FRI...BUT THIS APPEARS A RATHER LOW PROBABILITY AT
THIS TIME.

ASSUMING THE CLIPPER SYSTEM REMAINS WEAK/PROGRESSIVE AND EXITS TO
THE EAST...AN ARCTIC FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. THIS
ARCTIC FRONT WILL USHER IN ANOTHER BITTERLY COLD AIRMASS ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATER FRI INTO
EARLY SAT WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY
IMPACT THE REGION HEADING INTO LATE SAT AND SUN WITH ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR SOME SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL MODERATE SOMEWHAT INTO THE MID 20S
TO LOW 30S ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM...BUT ONLY
RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO UPPER TEENS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
SOME LOCATIONS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY POSSIBLY REACHING
APPROACHING 20. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE 20S FOR MOST
VALLEY LOCATIONS SATURDAY...WITH TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 5 BELOW ZERO TO 5
ABOVE ZERO...AND ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM NEAR ZERO TO THE SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS TO LOW AND MID TEENS ACROSS
THE CAPITAL REGION...WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MID HUDSON VALLEY.
THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES 5 TO
15 BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE ARCTIC
FRONT. WIND CHILL HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED AS WELL AS A LIGHT
WESTERLY WIND ALLOWS WIND CHILL VALUES TO PLUMMET TO 15 TO 30 BELOW
ZERO. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 5 BELOW ZERO TO
5 ABOVE ZERO...WITH WIND CHILLS GENERALLY 5 BELOW ZERO TO 15 BELOW
ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...PASSING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
TAF SITES BETWEEN MID MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. CLOUDS...AND A
FEW FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF...AND IN THE VICINITY OF
THIS FRONT. THEN...A STORM SYSTEM ORGANIZING OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL TRACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
SPREAD STEADY SNOW FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE TAF SITES
BEGINNING BETWEEN 03Z-07Z/MON.

LOW CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL OVERSPREAD
KGFL/KALB AND KPSF THROUGH 08Z/SUN...AND MAY REACH KPOU CLOSER TO
08Z-10Z/SUN. SOME FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESP AT KALB AND
KPSF. CIGS SHOULD MAINLY REMAIN VFR WITH BASES OF 3500-5000 FT
AGL...BUT COULD OCCASIONALLY APPROACH MVFR...WITH MVFR CIGS MORE
LIKELY AT KPSF.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY...AS SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED BENEATH AN INVERSION. AS A RESULT...BKN
CIGS AROUND 3500-5000 FT WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
MEANWHILE...MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ALSO INCREASE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE MIDWEST. SNOWFALL ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN AT THE TAF SITES ON SUNDAY
EVENING...BUT WILL LIKELY NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER 03Z MONDAY. LIGHT
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE N-NE WINDS WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT AT SPEEDS OF AROUND 5 KTS.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-MON: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SN.
MON NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
TUE-TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WED-WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO THE AREA.

CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW ICE
TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES AND OTHER BODIES
OF WATER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR NYZ038>041-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR NYZ032-033-042-043.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/11
NEAR TERM...IAA/11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...IRL/KL
AVIATION...FRUGIS/KL
HYDROLOGY...11







000
FXUS61 KALY 010817
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
317 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY. IT WILL
NOT BE AS COLD AS SATURDAY...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE
BELOW NORMAL. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT
AND MONDAY WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO THE
AREA. THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEFORE SUNRISE
MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 300 AM...A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WAS LOCATED OVER THE EAST END
OF LAKE ONTARIO. THIS MOISTURE STARVED CLIPPER AND ITS ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION TODAY. THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL NEAR THE PA/MA BORDER AND CNTRL NJ
WESTWARD INTO THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY. A 1030 HPA OR SFC
ANTICYCLONE WILL BUILD IN FROM SE OF JAMES BAY. THE SKIES MAY
BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY OVER THE NRN TIER OF THE FCST AREA. H850
TEMPS FALL TO -10C TO -15C NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY...AND -8C TO
-10C TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. MAX TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN
SATURDAY...BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL BY 5 TO 15 DEGREES WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST
AND TEENS TO LOWER 20S TO THE NORTH AND WEST...WITH SOME SINGLE
DIGITS OVER THE SRN DACKS.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE SRN TIER IN THE AFTERNOON...AND
WILL THICKEN AND LOWER TOWARDS 6 PM.  SOME LIGHT OVER RUNNING
SNOWFALL MAY REACH THE SE CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY BTWN 4-6
PM. SOME SLIGHT AND LOW CHC POPS WERE INTRODUCED THERE...BUT A DRY
COLUMN MAY YIELD QUITE A BIT OF VIRGA AT THE ONSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT AND MONDAY A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL EVENT IS
EXPECTED AS A NORTHERN STEAM SHORT WAVE COMBINES WITH SOUTHERN
STREAM MOISTURE. THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEFORE
SUNRISE MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING WITH SNOW
LINGERING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE TAPERING OFF MONDAY EVENING.

ALL OF THE INGREDIENTS ARE IN PLACE FOR A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AS
A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
LATE THIS EVENING TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST LATE TONIGHT AND
THEN PASSES SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND ON MONDAY. THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE ISTENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS OUR REGION AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM WITH SOME FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AT H7 AROUND 18Z ON MONDAY
AND A DECENT THETA E PLUME H10-H8 DURING MONDAY MORNING WHEN THE
SNOW SHOULD BE THE HEAVIEST. PLUME DIAGRAMS FOR ALBANY ARE
CENTERED BTWN 0.6 AND 1.0 INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT. SNOW TO
LIQUID RATIOS SHOULD BE QUITE HIGH FOR THIS STORM GENERALLY IN THE
15-20:1 RANGE. WITH ALL OF THIS TAKEN INTO CONSIDERATION HAVE
UPGRADED THE FINAL FOUR ZONES UP NORTH TO A WARNING SUCH THAT NOW
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IS IN A WARNING. EXPECTED SNOWFALL TOTALS
ARE 6 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES WITH 8 TO 16
INCHES ELSEWHERE. THE HIGHEST TOTALS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL TACONICS...BERKSHIRES AND
SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

BEHIND THIS STORM ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR DESCENDS ACROSS OUR REGION.
THIS ALONG WITH A FRESH SNOW COVER WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO
PLUMMET MONDAY NIGHT. LOWS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DROP TO ZERO OR
BELOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH 10 DEGREES BELOW ZERO AND
COLDER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. WE MAY ONCE AGAIN NEED
WIND CHILL WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING AND HAVE HIGHLIGHTED IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

ON TUESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO OUR REGION AND
THEN PASS TO OUR EAST LATE IN THE DAY. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE VERY COLD WITH READINGS ONLY IN THE TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOW...MAINLY LIGHT...ASSOCIATED WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE
APPROACHING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC
LIFT...PRIMARILY CONFINED TO UPSLOPE-FAVORED AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. ANY ACCUMULATIONS TUESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT...GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH.

THE CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED BETTER DYNAMICS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THU...WITH A LIGHT SNOWFALL
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. EXACT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE STILL
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...BUT A COUPLE OF INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA IS POSSIBLE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

ONE THING TO KEEP AN EYE ON REGARDING THIS CLIPPER...IS THAT THERE
IS SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR LATER WED INTO THU AS TO WHETHER SOME
SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY/MOISTURE...CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS NW
MEXICO...TRANSLATES NORTHEAST AND BECOMES PARTIALLY PHASED WITH THE
NORTHERN STREAM PV ANOMALY. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...AS THE 00Z/01 ECMWF
AND A FEW GEFS MEMBERS SUGGEST...THAN A MORE PROLONGED PERIOD OF
SNOW...AND POSSIBLY GREATER AMOUNTS COULD RESULT SOMETIME BETWEEN
WED AND EARLY FRI...BUT THIS APPEARS A RATHER LOW PROBABILITY AT
THIS TIME.

ASSUMING THE CLIPPER SYSTEM REMAINS WEAK/PROGRESSIVE AND EXITS TO
THE EAST...AN ARCTIC FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. THIS
ARCTIC FRONT WILL USHER IN ANOTHER BITTERLY COLD AIRMASS ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATER FRI INTO
EARLY SAT WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY
IMPACT THE REGION HEADING INTO LATE SAT AND SUN WITH ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR SOME SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL MODERATE SOMEWHAT INTO THE MID 20S
TO LOW 30S ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM...BUT ONLY
RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO UPPER TEENS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
SOME LOCATIONS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY POSSIBLY REACHING
APPROACHING 20. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE 20S FOR MOST
VALLEY LOCATIONS SATURDAY...WITH TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 5 BELOW ZERO TO 5
ABOVE ZERO...AND ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM NEAR ZERO TO THE SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS TO LOW AND MID TEENS ACROSS
THE CAPITAL REGION...WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MID HUDSON VALLEY.
THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES 5 TO
15 BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE ARCTIC
FRONT. WIND CHILL HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED AS WELL AS A LIGHT
WESTERLY WIND ALLOWS WIND CHILL VALUES TO PLUMMET TO 15 TO 30 BELOW
ZERO. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 5 BELOW ZERO TO
5 ABOVE ZERO...WITH WIND CHILLS GENERALLY 5 BELOW ZERO TO 15 BELOW
ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...PASSING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
TAF SITES BETWEEN MID MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. CLOUDS...AND A
FEW FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF...AND IN THE VICINITY OF
THIS FRONT. THEN...A STORM SYSTEM ORGANIZING OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL TRACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
SPREAD STEADY SNOW FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE TAF SITES
BEGINNING BETWEEN 03Z-07Z/MON.

LOW CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL OVERSPREAD
KGFL/KALB AND KPSF THROUGH 08Z/SUN...AND MAY REACH KPOU CLOSER TO
08Z-10Z/SUN. SOME FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESP AT KALB AND
KPSF. CIGS SHOULD MAINLY REMAIN VFR WITH BASES OF 3500-5000 FT
AGL...BUT COULD OCCASIONALLY APPROACH MVFR...WITH MVFR CIGS MORE
LIKELY AT KPSF.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY...AS SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED BENEATH AN INVERSION. AS A RESULT...BKN
CIGS AROUND 3500-5000 FT WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
MEANWHILE...MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ALSO INCREASE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE MIDWEST. SNOWFALL ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN AT THE TAF SITES ON SUNDAY
EVENING...BUT WILL LIKELY NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER 03Z MONDAY. LIGHT
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE N-NE WINDS WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT AT SPEEDS OF AROUND 5 KTS.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-MON: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SN.
MON NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
TUE-TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WED-WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO THE AREA.

CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW ICE
TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES AND OTHER BODIES
OF WATER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR NYZ038>041-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR NYZ032-033-042-043.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/11
NEAR TERM...IAA/11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...IRL/KL
AVIATION...FRUGIS/KL
HYDROLOGY...11







000
FXUS61 KALY 010817
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
317 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY. IT WILL
NOT BE AS COLD AS SATURDAY...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE
BELOW NORMAL. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT
AND MONDAY WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO THE
AREA. THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEFORE SUNRISE
MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 300 AM...A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WAS LOCATED OVER THE EAST END
OF LAKE ONTARIO. THIS MOISTURE STARVED CLIPPER AND ITS ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION TODAY. THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL NEAR THE PA/MA BORDER AND CNTRL NJ
WESTWARD INTO THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY. A 1030 HPA OR SFC
ANTICYCLONE WILL BUILD IN FROM SE OF JAMES BAY. THE SKIES MAY
BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY OVER THE NRN TIER OF THE FCST AREA. H850
TEMPS FALL TO -10C TO -15C NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY...AND -8C TO
-10C TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. MAX TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN
SATURDAY...BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL BY 5 TO 15 DEGREES WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST
AND TEENS TO LOWER 20S TO THE NORTH AND WEST...WITH SOME SINGLE
DIGITS OVER THE SRN DACKS.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE SRN TIER IN THE AFTERNOON...AND
WILL THICKEN AND LOWER TOWARDS 6 PM.  SOME LIGHT OVER RUNNING
SNOWFALL MAY REACH THE SE CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY BTWN 4-6
PM. SOME SLIGHT AND LOW CHC POPS WERE INTRODUCED THERE...BUT A DRY
COLUMN MAY YIELD QUITE A BIT OF VIRGA AT THE ONSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT AND MONDAY A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL EVENT IS
EXPECTED AS A NORTHERN STEAM SHORT WAVE COMBINES WITH SOUTHERN
STREAM MOISTURE. THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEFORE
SUNRISE MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING WITH SNOW
LINGERING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE TAPERING OFF MONDAY EVENING.

ALL OF THE INGREDIENTS ARE IN PLACE FOR A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AS
A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
LATE THIS EVENING TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST LATE TONIGHT AND
THEN PASSES SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND ON MONDAY. THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE ISTENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS OUR REGION AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM WITH SOME FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AT H7 AROUND 18Z ON MONDAY
AND A DECENT THETA E PLUME H10-H8 DURING MONDAY MORNING WHEN THE
SNOW SHOULD BE THE HEAVIEST. PLUME DIAGRAMS FOR ALBANY ARE
CENTERED BTWN 0.6 AND 1.0 INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT. SNOW TO
LIQUID RATIOS SHOULD BE QUITE HIGH FOR THIS STORM GENERALLY IN THE
15-20:1 RANGE. WITH ALL OF THIS TAKEN INTO CONSIDERATION HAVE
UPGRADED THE FINAL FOUR ZONES UP NORTH TO A WARNING SUCH THAT NOW
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IS IN A WARNING. EXPECTED SNOWFALL TOTALS
ARE 6 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES WITH 8 TO 16
INCHES ELSEWHERE. THE HIGHEST TOTALS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL TACONICS...BERKSHIRES AND
SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

BEHIND THIS STORM ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR DESCENDS ACROSS OUR REGION.
THIS ALONG WITH A FRESH SNOW COVER WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO
PLUMMET MONDAY NIGHT. LOWS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DROP TO ZERO OR
BELOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH 10 DEGREES BELOW ZERO AND
COLDER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. WE MAY ONCE AGAIN NEED
WIND CHILL WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING AND HAVE HIGHLIGHTED IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

ON TUESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO OUR REGION AND
THEN PASS TO OUR EAST LATE IN THE DAY. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE VERY COLD WITH READINGS ONLY IN THE TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOW...MAINLY LIGHT...ASSOCIATED WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE
APPROACHING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC
LIFT...PRIMARILY CONFINED TO UPSLOPE-FAVORED AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. ANY ACCUMULATIONS TUESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT...GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH.

THE CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED BETTER DYNAMICS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THU...WITH A LIGHT SNOWFALL
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. EXACT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE STILL
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...BUT A COUPLE OF INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA IS POSSIBLE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

ONE THING TO KEEP AN EYE ON REGARDING THIS CLIPPER...IS THAT THERE
IS SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR LATER WED INTO THU AS TO WHETHER SOME
SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY/MOISTURE...CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS NW
MEXICO...TRANSLATES NORTHEAST AND BECOMES PARTIALLY PHASED WITH THE
NORTHERN STREAM PV ANOMALY. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...AS THE 00Z/01 ECMWF
AND A FEW GEFS MEMBERS SUGGEST...THAN A MORE PROLONGED PERIOD OF
SNOW...AND POSSIBLY GREATER AMOUNTS COULD RESULT SOMETIME BETWEEN
WED AND EARLY FRI...BUT THIS APPEARS A RATHER LOW PROBABILITY AT
THIS TIME.

ASSUMING THE CLIPPER SYSTEM REMAINS WEAK/PROGRESSIVE AND EXITS TO
THE EAST...AN ARCTIC FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. THIS
ARCTIC FRONT WILL USHER IN ANOTHER BITTERLY COLD AIRMASS ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATER FRI INTO
EARLY SAT WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY
IMPACT THE REGION HEADING INTO LATE SAT AND SUN WITH ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR SOME SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL MODERATE SOMEWHAT INTO THE MID 20S
TO LOW 30S ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM...BUT ONLY
RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO UPPER TEENS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
SOME LOCATIONS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY POSSIBLY REACHING
APPROACHING 20. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE 20S FOR MOST
VALLEY LOCATIONS SATURDAY...WITH TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 5 BELOW ZERO TO 5
ABOVE ZERO...AND ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM NEAR ZERO TO THE SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS TO LOW AND MID TEENS ACROSS
THE CAPITAL REGION...WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MID HUDSON VALLEY.
THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES 5 TO
15 BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE ARCTIC
FRONT. WIND CHILL HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED AS WELL AS A LIGHT
WESTERLY WIND ALLOWS WIND CHILL VALUES TO PLUMMET TO 15 TO 30 BELOW
ZERO. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 5 BELOW ZERO TO
5 ABOVE ZERO...WITH WIND CHILLS GENERALLY 5 BELOW ZERO TO 15 BELOW
ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...PASSING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
TAF SITES BETWEEN MID MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. CLOUDS...AND A
FEW FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF...AND IN THE VICINITY OF
THIS FRONT. THEN...A STORM SYSTEM ORGANIZING OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL TRACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
SPREAD STEADY SNOW FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE TAF SITES
BEGINNING BETWEEN 03Z-07Z/MON.

LOW CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL OVERSPREAD
KGFL/KALB AND KPSF THROUGH 08Z/SUN...AND MAY REACH KPOU CLOSER TO
08Z-10Z/SUN. SOME FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESP AT KALB AND
KPSF. CIGS SHOULD MAINLY REMAIN VFR WITH BASES OF 3500-5000 FT
AGL...BUT COULD OCCASIONALLY APPROACH MVFR...WITH MVFR CIGS MORE
LIKELY AT KPSF.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY...AS SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED BENEATH AN INVERSION. AS A RESULT...BKN
CIGS AROUND 3500-5000 FT WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
MEANWHILE...MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ALSO INCREASE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE MIDWEST. SNOWFALL ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN AT THE TAF SITES ON SUNDAY
EVENING...BUT WILL LIKELY NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER 03Z MONDAY. LIGHT
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE N-NE WINDS WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT AT SPEEDS OF AROUND 5 KTS.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-MON: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SN.
MON NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
TUE-TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WED-WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO THE AREA.

CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW ICE
TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES AND OTHER BODIES
OF WATER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR NYZ038>041-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR NYZ032-033-042-043.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/11
NEAR TERM...IAA/11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...IRL/KL
AVIATION...FRUGIS/KL
HYDROLOGY...11







000
FXUS61 KALY 010817
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
317 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY. IT WILL
NOT BE AS COLD AS SATURDAY...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE
BELOW NORMAL. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT
AND MONDAY WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO THE
AREA. THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEFORE SUNRISE
MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 300 AM...A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WAS LOCATED OVER THE EAST END
OF LAKE ONTARIO. THIS MOISTURE STARVED CLIPPER AND ITS ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION TODAY. THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL NEAR THE PA/MA BORDER AND CNTRL NJ
WESTWARD INTO THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY. A 1030 HPA OR SFC
ANTICYCLONE WILL BUILD IN FROM SE OF JAMES BAY. THE SKIES MAY
BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY OVER THE NRN TIER OF THE FCST AREA. H850
TEMPS FALL TO -10C TO -15C NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY...AND -8C TO
-10C TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. MAX TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN
SATURDAY...BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL BY 5 TO 15 DEGREES WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST
AND TEENS TO LOWER 20S TO THE NORTH AND WEST...WITH SOME SINGLE
DIGITS OVER THE SRN DACKS.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE SRN TIER IN THE AFTERNOON...AND
WILL THICKEN AND LOWER TOWARDS 6 PM.  SOME LIGHT OVER RUNNING
SNOWFALL MAY REACH THE SE CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY BTWN 4-6
PM. SOME SLIGHT AND LOW CHC POPS WERE INTRODUCED THERE...BUT A DRY
COLUMN MAY YIELD QUITE A BIT OF VIRGA AT THE ONSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT AND MONDAY A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL EVENT IS
EXPECTED AS A NORTHERN STEAM SHORT WAVE COMBINES WITH SOUTHERN
STREAM MOISTURE. THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEFORE
SUNRISE MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING WITH SNOW
LINGERING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE TAPERING OFF MONDAY EVENING.

ALL OF THE INGREDIENTS ARE IN PLACE FOR A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AS
A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
LATE THIS EVENING TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST LATE TONIGHT AND
THEN PASSES SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND ON MONDAY. THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE ISTENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS OUR REGION AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM WITH SOME FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AT H7 AROUND 18Z ON MONDAY
AND A DECENT THETA E PLUME H10-H8 DURING MONDAY MORNING WHEN THE
SNOW SHOULD BE THE HEAVIEST. PLUME DIAGRAMS FOR ALBANY ARE
CENTERED BTWN 0.6 AND 1.0 INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT. SNOW TO
LIQUID RATIOS SHOULD BE QUITE HIGH FOR THIS STORM GENERALLY IN THE
15-20:1 RANGE. WITH ALL OF THIS TAKEN INTO CONSIDERATION HAVE
UPGRADED THE FINAL FOUR ZONES UP NORTH TO A WARNING SUCH THAT NOW
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IS IN A WARNING. EXPECTED SNOWFALL TOTALS
ARE 6 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES WITH 8 TO 16
INCHES ELSEWHERE. THE HIGHEST TOTALS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL TACONICS...BERKSHIRES AND
SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

BEHIND THIS STORM ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR DESCENDS ACROSS OUR REGION.
THIS ALONG WITH A FRESH SNOW COVER WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO
PLUMMET MONDAY NIGHT. LOWS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DROP TO ZERO OR
BELOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH 10 DEGREES BELOW ZERO AND
COLDER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. WE MAY ONCE AGAIN NEED
WIND CHILL WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING AND HAVE HIGHLIGHTED IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

ON TUESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO OUR REGION AND
THEN PASS TO OUR EAST LATE IN THE DAY. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE VERY COLD WITH READINGS ONLY IN THE TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOW...MAINLY LIGHT...ASSOCIATED WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE
APPROACHING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC
LIFT...PRIMARILY CONFINED TO UPSLOPE-FAVORED AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. ANY ACCUMULATIONS TUESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT...GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH.

THE CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED BETTER DYNAMICS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THU...WITH A LIGHT SNOWFALL
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. EXACT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE STILL
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...BUT A COUPLE OF INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA IS POSSIBLE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

ONE THING TO KEEP AN EYE ON REGARDING THIS CLIPPER...IS THAT THERE
IS SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR LATER WED INTO THU AS TO WHETHER SOME
SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY/MOISTURE...CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS NW
MEXICO...TRANSLATES NORTHEAST AND BECOMES PARTIALLY PHASED WITH THE
NORTHERN STREAM PV ANOMALY. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...AS THE 00Z/01 ECMWF
AND A FEW GEFS MEMBERS SUGGEST...THAN A MORE PROLONGED PERIOD OF
SNOW...AND POSSIBLY GREATER AMOUNTS COULD RESULT SOMETIME BETWEEN
WED AND EARLY FRI...BUT THIS APPEARS A RATHER LOW PROBABILITY AT
THIS TIME.

ASSUMING THE CLIPPER SYSTEM REMAINS WEAK/PROGRESSIVE AND EXITS TO
THE EAST...AN ARCTIC FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. THIS
ARCTIC FRONT WILL USHER IN ANOTHER BITTERLY COLD AIRMASS ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATER FRI INTO
EARLY SAT WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY
IMPACT THE REGION HEADING INTO LATE SAT AND SUN WITH ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR SOME SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL MODERATE SOMEWHAT INTO THE MID 20S
TO LOW 30S ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM...BUT ONLY
RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO UPPER TEENS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
SOME LOCATIONS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY POSSIBLY REACHING
APPROACHING 20. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE 20S FOR MOST
VALLEY LOCATIONS SATURDAY...WITH TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 5 BELOW ZERO TO 5
ABOVE ZERO...AND ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM NEAR ZERO TO THE SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS TO LOW AND MID TEENS ACROSS
THE CAPITAL REGION...WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MID HUDSON VALLEY.
THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES 5 TO
15 BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE ARCTIC
FRONT. WIND CHILL HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED AS WELL AS A LIGHT
WESTERLY WIND ALLOWS WIND CHILL VALUES TO PLUMMET TO 15 TO 30 BELOW
ZERO. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 5 BELOW ZERO TO
5 ABOVE ZERO...WITH WIND CHILLS GENERALLY 5 BELOW ZERO TO 15 BELOW
ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...PASSING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
TAF SITES BETWEEN MID MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. CLOUDS...AND A
FEW FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF...AND IN THE VICINITY OF
THIS FRONT. THEN...A STORM SYSTEM ORGANIZING OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL TRACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
SPREAD STEADY SNOW FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE TAF SITES
BEGINNING BETWEEN 03Z-07Z/MON.

LOW CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL OVERSPREAD
KGFL/KALB AND KPSF THROUGH 08Z/SUN...AND MAY REACH KPOU CLOSER TO
08Z-10Z/SUN. SOME FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESP AT KALB AND
KPSF. CIGS SHOULD MAINLY REMAIN VFR WITH BASES OF 3500-5000 FT
AGL...BUT COULD OCCASIONALLY APPROACH MVFR...WITH MVFR CIGS MORE
LIKELY AT KPSF.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY...AS SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED BENEATH AN INVERSION. AS A RESULT...BKN
CIGS AROUND 3500-5000 FT WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
MEANWHILE...MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ALSO INCREASE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE MIDWEST. SNOWFALL ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN AT THE TAF SITES ON SUNDAY
EVENING...BUT WILL LIKELY NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER 03Z MONDAY. LIGHT
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE N-NE WINDS WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT AT SPEEDS OF AROUND 5 KTS.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-MON: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SN.
MON NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
TUE-TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WED-WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO THE AREA.

CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW ICE
TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES AND OTHER BODIES
OF WATER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR NYZ038>041-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR NYZ032-033-042-043.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/11
NEAR TERM...IAA/11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...IRL/KL
AVIATION...FRUGIS/KL
HYDROLOGY...11







000
FXUS61 KBOX 010541
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1241 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BLUSTERY AND VERY COLD CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW. A
MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT THE REGION VERY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY EVENING WITH HEAVY SNOW FOR MANY LOCATIONS. BITTERLY
COLD WIND CHILLS FOLLOW LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
MODERATING TEMPS WEDNESDAY THEN VERY COLD CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. A COASTAL STORM WILL PASS WELL SOUTH
OF NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE WEEK BUT WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1240 AM UPDATE...
SKC ACROSS THE REGION BUT NOTING SOME LOWER CLOUDS MOVING INTO
THE BERKSHIRES WHICH MAY SPILL INTO W ZONES OVERNIGHT. ADJUSTED
T/TD GRIDS...OTHERWISE FORECAST ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SFC RIDGE ACROSS NEW YORK STATE COLLAPSES TOWARD THE MID ATLC
COAST OVERNIGHT AS ARCTIC FRONT APPROACHES CANADIAN BORDER. SKIES
ARE CLEAR BUT SOME LOWER CLOUDS IN EASTERN NY MAY DRIFT INTO
WESTERN NEW ENG OVERNIGHT. STILL GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE COAST BUT
TREND WILL BE FOR DIMINISHING WIND OVERNIGHT. WHERE WINDS HAVE
DECOUPLED TEMPS HAVE ALREADY FALLEN TO NEAR ZERO. CURRENTLY 1 AT
ORE. EXPECT SUBZERO TEMPS NW MA WITH SINGLE NUMBERS ELSEWHERE AWAY
FROM THE COAST. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH WIND ALONG THE COAST TO KEEP
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID TEENS.

TOMORROW...

850MB ARCTIC FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TOMORROW. HOWEVER
TEMPS WILL BE WARMER THAN TODAY AS 925 MB TEMPS JUMP FROM -13C TO
-8C. EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE MID 20S TO PERHAPS THE LOW 30S
ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN. MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY WHICH WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER.
OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE CALMER AND DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAJOR WINTER STORM VERY LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON EVENING
* HEAVY SNOWFALL EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE REGION
* BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY SNOWFALL AMTS NEAR SOUTH COAST - PTYPE ISSUES
* BITTERLY COLD AIR LATE MON NIGHT - WIND CHILLS 15 TO 25 BELOW ZERO

DETAILS...

A MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND VERY LATE SUN
NIGHT INTO MONDAY EVENING.  ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA WILL COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
THE RESULT WILL BE STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER RUNNING THE
ARCTIC DOME AT THE SURFACE.  THEN AS THE LOW DEEPENS...MUCH OF THE
REGION WILL SEE SNOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM.  BIGGEST
UNCERTAINTY IS HOW MUCH OF THE REGION TRANSITIONS TO A PERIOD OF
MIXED PTYPE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE EVENT...CUTTING DOWN ON
POSSIBLE SNOW ACCUMS.

1) TIMING AND UNCERTAINTY

SNOW WILL LIKELY ARRIVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST VERY LATE SUN
EVENING IN OUR WESTERN ZONES AND AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE REST OF
THE REGION.  EXTREMELY TIGHT MID LEVEL THERMAL PACKING WILL ALLOW
SNOW TO QUICKLY BECOME HEAVY.  SNOW WILL FALL HEAVY MONDAY MORNING
AT 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR AND SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT THE AM RUSH HOUR.

THINGS THEN BECOME MORE UNCERTAIN LATER IN THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.  THE GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN SURGING WARM MID LEVEL AIR
TO THE MA PIKE...RESULTING IN A CHANGE TO A PERIOD OF SLEET/FREEZING
RAIN AND EVEN PLAIN RAIN ALONG THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.
THE NAM/ECMWF/GGEM APPEAR THE COLDEST KEEPING MOST AREAS HEAVY
SNOW...EXCEPT FOR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.  THE UKMET APPEARS TO BE IN
BETWEEN THE OTHER SOLUTIONS.  GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WILL BLEND THE
MODELS.  RIGHT NOW WERE THINKING TRANSITION AREA MAY GET BRIEFLY
NEAR OR PERHAPS JUST NORTH OF THE THE TAUNTON TO PROVIDENCE
CORRIDOR...BEFORE COLLAPSING SOUTHEAST.

REGARDLESS HOW FAR NORTH THE TRANSITION LINE GETS...MOST AREAS WILL
CHANGE BACK TO SNOW MON EVENING.  GIVEN CLOSED MID LEVEL CENTERS AND
VERY COLD NORTHEAST FLOW...COULD BE SOME OCEAN ENHANCEMENT ACROSS
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND FOR A TIME BEFORE SNOW ENDS.  BULK OF SNOW
SHOULD WIND DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT ALTHOUGH THE GGEM IS A BIT SLOWER.

2) SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS AND HEADLINES

WE ARE PRETTY CONFIDENT IN A HEAVY SNOWFALL FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION...EXCEPT FOR AREAS NEAR THE SOUTH COAST WHERE PTYPE ISSUES
MAYBE MORE PROBLEMATIC.  8 TO 14 INCHES EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION.  HAVE UPGRADED ALL AREAS FROM PROVIDENCE TO TAUNTON
NORTHWARD TO WINTER STORM WARNING/S WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON CRITERIA
BEING MET.  AREAS SOUTHEAST OF THAT LINE...THERE IS SOME MORE
UNCERTAINTY ESP CAPE/ISLANDS.  IF A LOT OF MIXING OCCURS THESE AREAS
MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH WARNING CRITERIA...BUT ITS STILL CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON MODEL TRENDS.  THEREFORE...WE HAVE HELD THE
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTH COAST AND THE ISLANDS.

3) STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW

NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 50 MPH EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS STORM INTENSIFIES AND PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES.  THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN POOR VISIBILITY ALONG WITH
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.  ITS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW LOCATIONS ALONG
THE COAST COULD SEE NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FOR A VERY SHORT
TIME...BUT STORM DOESN/T SEEM TO WARRANT THOSE TYPE OF HEADLINES.

4) BITTERLY COLD AIR MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

TEMPS WILL LIKELY PLUNGE BELOW ZERO TO 5 ABOVE ZERO IN MANY
LOCATIONS BY EARLY TUE MORNING.  THIS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS
VALUES BETWEEN 15 AND 25 BELOW ZERO. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* COLD PATTERN CONTINUES THRU NEXT WEEKEND
* CLIPPER LOW APPEARING MORE LIKELY THAN COASTAL LOW WED/THU

GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG 12Z DETERMINISTIC...12Z GEFS AND 00Z ECENS
ENSEMBLES THAT THE POLAR JET WILL DOMINATE THE NORTHERN TIER STATES
INCLUDING NEW ENGLAND THIS PERIOD. THIS COMBINED WITH STREAMS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNPHASED WILL SUPPORT MAINLY DRY WEATHER THIS
PERIOD. ONE CAVEAT WILL BE CLIPPER LOW ENTERING THE NORTHEAST
WED/WED NIGHT. EARLIER MODEL RUNS SUGGESTED SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT SOUTHWEST OF NEW ENGLAND...WITH
POSSIBLE COASTAL-OCEAN STORM IMPACTING OUR REGION AROUND THU.
HOWEVER LATEST GUID INCLUDING ENSEMBLES SUGGEST MID LEVEL TROUGH
WILL LACK SUFFICIENT AMPLITUDE TO BACK THE FLOW FOR A SECONDARY LOW
TO IMPACT THE REGION. THEREFORE LEANING TOWARD A MORE OFFSHORE TRACK
AND JUST A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE WED/WED NIGHT. HOWEVER AT
THIS TIME RANGE CAN/T BE TOO DETERMINISTIC. THUS WON`T TOTALLY
DISCOUNT CLOSER SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT.

AS FOR TEMPS...BITTERLY COLD TUE BEHIND DEPARTING MON NGT COASTAL
LOW. THEN COLD EASES WED AHEAD OF APPROACHING CLIPPER LOW FOLLOWED
BUT YET ANOTHER ARCTIC BLAST LATE IN THE WEEK BEHIND THE CLIPPER. AS
FOR INTO NEXT WEEKEND ENSEMBLE TRENDS SUGGEST TEMPS COLDER THAN
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM.../THROUGH MONDAY/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR...BUT LOW PROB FOR AREAS OF
MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.

VFR THIS EVENING DETERIORATES TO IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS IN MODERATE
TO HEAVY SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT TO DAYBREAK FROM WEST TO EAST.
IFR/LIFR IN MOD/HEAVY SNOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY MON. PTYPE
MAY TRANSITION TO A PERIOD OF SLEET/FREEZING RAIN AROUND MIDDAY
FROM PVD-TAN-PYM SOUTH AND CHANGING TO RAIN OVER THE OUTER
CAPE/ISLANDS. NE WIND GUSTS TO 30-35 KT DEVELOPING ACROSS E
COASTAL MA MONDAY...WITH 25 KT ACROSS RI AND REMAINDER OF E MA.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING OF
IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING OF
IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR ON
TUESDAY. COULD SEE SOME MVFR CIGS IN SCT SNOW SHOWERS ON
WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW RISK OF MVFR
ALONG SOUTHEAST MASS DEPENDING ON TRACK OF CLIPPER LOW.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...STRONG LOW PRESSURE PULLS FARTHER AWAY WITH WINDS
DIMINISHING BELOW GALE AFTER 06Z...BUT GUSTS 25-30 KT WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY LIKELY
CONTINUING...ESPECIALLY E MA COASTAL WATERS.

SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGHOUT THE DAY BUT EXPECT SCA
WAVES TO REMAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY WILL
PERSIST.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

***STRONG GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS/HIGH SEAS AND THE RISK OF HEAVY
  FREEZING SPRAY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT***

WINDS/SEAS QUICKLY RAMP UP VERY LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON AS LOW
PRESSURE INTENSIFIES NEAR THE SOUTH COAST. GALE WATCHES ISSUED FOR
EXPECTED 40+ KNOT NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS BY MON MORNING.
SEAS BUILD TO 15+ FEET ACROSS OUR EASTERN WATERS BY LATE MON
AFTERNOON/EVENING. IN ADDITION...BITTERLY COLD AIR MOVING OVER THE
WATERS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. HAVE ALSO ISSUED A FREEZING SPRAY WATCH.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE TO HIGH FORECAST
CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY...NW GALES LIKELY ALONG WITH FREEZING SPRAY...POSSIBLY
MODERATE TO HEAVY. MAINLY DRY WITH GOOD VSBY EXCEPT FAR OFFSHORE
WHERE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE COMMON.

WED...WINDS EASE AND BECOME SOUTHWEST AS CLIPPER LOW ENTERS THE
GREAT LAKES AND NY STATE. NOT AS COLD SO FREEZING SPRAY UNLIKELY.
VSBY MAY BRIEFLY LOWER IN A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW.

THU...ARCTIC FRONT WITH NW GALES BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE. MODERATE TO
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY POSSIBLE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
*** MINOR TO PERHAPS ISOLATED AREAS OF MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING
  POSSIBLE MON/MON NIGHT EASTERN MA COASTLINE ***

GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON SURFACE LOW TRACKING SOMEWHERE BETWEEN
NANTUCKET AND THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK WITH NAM THE FASTEST AND GFS
FARTHEST NORTHWEST. ECMWF SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE. MODEL CONSENSUS
BRINGS STRONGEST ONSHORE WINDS BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z...CLOSE TO LOW
TIDE. IF THIS TIMING HOLDS UP WORST CASE SCENARIO WOULD BE MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING.

THE FIRST TIDE CYCLE OF CONCERN IS THE MONDAY MID MORNING. HOWEVER
ALL WAVE GUID SUGGEST SEAS LESS THAN 10 FT AT HIGH TIDE GIVEN
ARRIVAL OF STRONGEST WINDS LATER DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS ALSO
YIELDS SURGE VALUES OF A FOOT OR LESS.

AS FOR THE MONDAY EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE...ASTRO TIDES ARE ABOUT A
1 FT LOWER. HOWEVER A STORM SURGE OF 1.5 TO 2.5 FT IS POSSIBLE.
ESTOFS AND ETSS ARE LOWER...SO I BLENDED THE TWO GUID SOURCES AND
ADDED 50 PERCENT TO COME UP WITH SURGE VALUES OF 1.5 TO 2.5 FT. IN
ADDITION...SEAS WILL LIKELY BUILD TO 15 TO 20 FT DURING THE EVENING
HIGH TIDE. ALL OF THESE FACTORS YIELD A MODERATE RISK OF MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING WITH A LOW RISK OF ISOLATED MODERATE FLOODING.

WHILE WINDS...SEAS AND STORM SURGE WILL BE LESS THAN THE PREVIOUS
COASTAL STORM THERE COULD STILL BE SOME MODEST IMPACT ESPECIALLY FOR
THOSE COMMUNITIES SUCH AS MARSHFIELD MA THAT WERE HIT HARD EARLIER
THIS WEEK WHERE COASTAL STRUCTURES SUCH AS SEAWALLS WERE DAMAGED.
GIVEN THE LOW TRACK IS CLOSE TO NANTUCKET THE GREATEST RISK OF
COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE FARTHER NORTHWARD FROM CAPE COD TO CAPE ANN
WITH PERHAPS THE HIGHEST RISK FROM HULL/COHASSET/SCITUATE/
MARSHFIELD/PLYMOUTH TO SANDWICH HARBOR.
/DUXBURY

GIVEN IT APPEARS MARGINAL FOR SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING AND STILL
48-60 HRS OUT IN TIME WILL HOLD OFF ON A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WITH EXTREMELY COLD AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW MONDAY
NIGHT...TEMPERATURES MAY FALL BACK CLOSE TO OR SURPASSING RECORD
LEVELS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AND THAT IS NOT TAKING INTO ACCOUNT
THE STRONG WINDS.

HERE ARE THE RECORD LOWS FOR TUESDAY 2/3...

BOSTON         -5 SET IN 1881
PROVIDENCE     -6 SET IN 1961
WORCESTER      -7 SET IN 1931, 1955 AND 1971
WINDSOR LOCKS  -3 SET IN 1955
BLUE HILL OBS  -7 SET IN 1955

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT
     FOR MAZ020>024.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR MAZ002>019-026.
RI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT
     FOR RIZ005>008.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR RIZ001>004.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ231>235-237.
     HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR ANZ231>235-237-250-251-254>256.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ231-
     232-250-251-254-255.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ231-232-
     250-251-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ233>235-237-256.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ233>235-237.
     GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ230-236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ230-236.
     GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ250-251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/NOCERA/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...KJC/FRANK
MARINE...KJC/FRANK/NOCERA/DUNTEN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KBOX 010541
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1241 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BLUSTERY AND VERY COLD CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW. A
MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT THE REGION VERY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY EVENING WITH HEAVY SNOW FOR MANY LOCATIONS. BITTERLY
COLD WIND CHILLS FOLLOW LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
MODERATING TEMPS WEDNESDAY THEN VERY COLD CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. A COASTAL STORM WILL PASS WELL SOUTH
OF NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE WEEK BUT WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1240 AM UPDATE...
SKC ACROSS THE REGION BUT NOTING SOME LOWER CLOUDS MOVING INTO
THE BERKSHIRES WHICH MAY SPILL INTO W ZONES OVERNIGHT. ADJUSTED
T/TD GRIDS...OTHERWISE FORECAST ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SFC RIDGE ACROSS NEW YORK STATE COLLAPSES TOWARD THE MID ATLC
COAST OVERNIGHT AS ARCTIC FRONT APPROACHES CANADIAN BORDER. SKIES
ARE CLEAR BUT SOME LOWER CLOUDS IN EASTERN NY MAY DRIFT INTO
WESTERN NEW ENG OVERNIGHT. STILL GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE COAST BUT
TREND WILL BE FOR DIMINISHING WIND OVERNIGHT. WHERE WINDS HAVE
DECOUPLED TEMPS HAVE ALREADY FALLEN TO NEAR ZERO. CURRENTLY 1 AT
ORE. EXPECT SUBZERO TEMPS NW MA WITH SINGLE NUMBERS ELSEWHERE AWAY
FROM THE COAST. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH WIND ALONG THE COAST TO KEEP
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID TEENS.

TOMORROW...

850MB ARCTIC FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TOMORROW. HOWEVER
TEMPS WILL BE WARMER THAN TODAY AS 925 MB TEMPS JUMP FROM -13C TO
-8C. EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE MID 20S TO PERHAPS THE LOW 30S
ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN. MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY WHICH WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER.
OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE CALMER AND DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAJOR WINTER STORM VERY LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON EVENING
* HEAVY SNOWFALL EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE REGION
* BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY SNOWFALL AMTS NEAR SOUTH COAST - PTYPE ISSUES
* BITTERLY COLD AIR LATE MON NIGHT - WIND CHILLS 15 TO 25 BELOW ZERO

DETAILS...

A MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND VERY LATE SUN
NIGHT INTO MONDAY EVENING.  ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA WILL COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
THE RESULT WILL BE STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER RUNNING THE
ARCTIC DOME AT THE SURFACE.  THEN AS THE LOW DEEPENS...MUCH OF THE
REGION WILL SEE SNOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM.  BIGGEST
UNCERTAINTY IS HOW MUCH OF THE REGION TRANSITIONS TO A PERIOD OF
MIXED PTYPE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE EVENT...CUTTING DOWN ON
POSSIBLE SNOW ACCUMS.

1) TIMING AND UNCERTAINTY

SNOW WILL LIKELY ARRIVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST VERY LATE SUN
EVENING IN OUR WESTERN ZONES AND AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE REST OF
THE REGION.  EXTREMELY TIGHT MID LEVEL THERMAL PACKING WILL ALLOW
SNOW TO QUICKLY BECOME HEAVY.  SNOW WILL FALL HEAVY MONDAY MORNING
AT 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR AND SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT THE AM RUSH HOUR.

THINGS THEN BECOME MORE UNCERTAIN LATER IN THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.  THE GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN SURGING WARM MID LEVEL AIR
TO THE MA PIKE...RESULTING IN A CHANGE TO A PERIOD OF SLEET/FREEZING
RAIN AND EVEN PLAIN RAIN ALONG THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.
THE NAM/ECMWF/GGEM APPEAR THE COLDEST KEEPING MOST AREAS HEAVY
SNOW...EXCEPT FOR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.  THE UKMET APPEARS TO BE IN
BETWEEN THE OTHER SOLUTIONS.  GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WILL BLEND THE
MODELS.  RIGHT NOW WERE THINKING TRANSITION AREA MAY GET BRIEFLY
NEAR OR PERHAPS JUST NORTH OF THE THE TAUNTON TO PROVIDENCE
CORRIDOR...BEFORE COLLAPSING SOUTHEAST.

REGARDLESS HOW FAR NORTH THE TRANSITION LINE GETS...MOST AREAS WILL
CHANGE BACK TO SNOW MON EVENING.  GIVEN CLOSED MID LEVEL CENTERS AND
VERY COLD NORTHEAST FLOW...COULD BE SOME OCEAN ENHANCEMENT ACROSS
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND FOR A TIME BEFORE SNOW ENDS.  BULK OF SNOW
SHOULD WIND DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT ALTHOUGH THE GGEM IS A BIT SLOWER.

2) SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS AND HEADLINES

WE ARE PRETTY CONFIDENT IN A HEAVY SNOWFALL FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION...EXCEPT FOR AREAS NEAR THE SOUTH COAST WHERE PTYPE ISSUES
MAYBE MORE PROBLEMATIC.  8 TO 14 INCHES EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION.  HAVE UPGRADED ALL AREAS FROM PROVIDENCE TO TAUNTON
NORTHWARD TO WINTER STORM WARNING/S WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON CRITERIA
BEING MET.  AREAS SOUTHEAST OF THAT LINE...THERE IS SOME MORE
UNCERTAINTY ESP CAPE/ISLANDS.  IF A LOT OF MIXING OCCURS THESE AREAS
MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH WARNING CRITERIA...BUT ITS STILL CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON MODEL TRENDS.  THEREFORE...WE HAVE HELD THE
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTH COAST AND THE ISLANDS.

3) STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW

NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 50 MPH EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS STORM INTENSIFIES AND PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES.  THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN POOR VISIBILITY ALONG WITH
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.  ITS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW LOCATIONS ALONG
THE COAST COULD SEE NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FOR A VERY SHORT
TIME...BUT STORM DOESN/T SEEM TO WARRANT THOSE TYPE OF HEADLINES.

4) BITTERLY COLD AIR MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

TEMPS WILL LIKELY PLUNGE BELOW ZERO TO 5 ABOVE ZERO IN MANY
LOCATIONS BY EARLY TUE MORNING.  THIS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS
VALUES BETWEEN 15 AND 25 BELOW ZERO. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* COLD PATTERN CONTINUES THRU NEXT WEEKEND
* CLIPPER LOW APPEARING MORE LIKELY THAN COASTAL LOW WED/THU

GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG 12Z DETERMINISTIC...12Z GEFS AND 00Z ECENS
ENSEMBLES THAT THE POLAR JET WILL DOMINATE THE NORTHERN TIER STATES
INCLUDING NEW ENGLAND THIS PERIOD. THIS COMBINED WITH STREAMS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNPHASED WILL SUPPORT MAINLY DRY WEATHER THIS
PERIOD. ONE CAVEAT WILL BE CLIPPER LOW ENTERING THE NORTHEAST
WED/WED NIGHT. EARLIER MODEL RUNS SUGGESTED SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT SOUTHWEST OF NEW ENGLAND...WITH
POSSIBLE COASTAL-OCEAN STORM IMPACTING OUR REGION AROUND THU.
HOWEVER LATEST GUID INCLUDING ENSEMBLES SUGGEST MID LEVEL TROUGH
WILL LACK SUFFICIENT AMPLITUDE TO BACK THE FLOW FOR A SECONDARY LOW
TO IMPACT THE REGION. THEREFORE LEANING TOWARD A MORE OFFSHORE TRACK
AND JUST A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE WED/WED NIGHT. HOWEVER AT
THIS TIME RANGE CAN/T BE TOO DETERMINISTIC. THUS WON`T TOTALLY
DISCOUNT CLOSER SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT.

AS FOR TEMPS...BITTERLY COLD TUE BEHIND DEPARTING MON NGT COASTAL
LOW. THEN COLD EASES WED AHEAD OF APPROACHING CLIPPER LOW FOLLOWED
BUT YET ANOTHER ARCTIC BLAST LATE IN THE WEEK BEHIND THE CLIPPER. AS
FOR INTO NEXT WEEKEND ENSEMBLE TRENDS SUGGEST TEMPS COLDER THAN
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM.../THROUGH MONDAY/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR...BUT LOW PROB FOR AREAS OF
MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.

VFR THIS EVENING DETERIORATES TO IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS IN MODERATE
TO HEAVY SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT TO DAYBREAK FROM WEST TO EAST.
IFR/LIFR IN MOD/HEAVY SNOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY MON. PTYPE
MAY TRANSITION TO A PERIOD OF SLEET/FREEZING RAIN AROUND MIDDAY
FROM PVD-TAN-PYM SOUTH AND CHANGING TO RAIN OVER THE OUTER
CAPE/ISLANDS. NE WIND GUSTS TO 30-35 KT DEVELOPING ACROSS E
COASTAL MA MONDAY...WITH 25 KT ACROSS RI AND REMAINDER OF E MA.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING OF
IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING OF
IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR ON
TUESDAY. COULD SEE SOME MVFR CIGS IN SCT SNOW SHOWERS ON
WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW RISK OF MVFR
ALONG SOUTHEAST MASS DEPENDING ON TRACK OF CLIPPER LOW.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...STRONG LOW PRESSURE PULLS FARTHER AWAY WITH WINDS
DIMINISHING BELOW GALE AFTER 06Z...BUT GUSTS 25-30 KT WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY LIKELY
CONTINUING...ESPECIALLY E MA COASTAL WATERS.

SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGHOUT THE DAY BUT EXPECT SCA
WAVES TO REMAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY WILL
PERSIST.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

***STRONG GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS/HIGH SEAS AND THE RISK OF HEAVY
  FREEZING SPRAY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT***

WINDS/SEAS QUICKLY RAMP UP VERY LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON AS LOW
PRESSURE INTENSIFIES NEAR THE SOUTH COAST. GALE WATCHES ISSUED FOR
EXPECTED 40+ KNOT NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS BY MON MORNING.
SEAS BUILD TO 15+ FEET ACROSS OUR EASTERN WATERS BY LATE MON
AFTERNOON/EVENING. IN ADDITION...BITTERLY COLD AIR MOVING OVER THE
WATERS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. HAVE ALSO ISSUED A FREEZING SPRAY WATCH.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE TO HIGH FORECAST
CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY...NW GALES LIKELY ALONG WITH FREEZING SPRAY...POSSIBLY
MODERATE TO HEAVY. MAINLY DRY WITH GOOD VSBY EXCEPT FAR OFFSHORE
WHERE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE COMMON.

WED...WINDS EASE AND BECOME SOUTHWEST AS CLIPPER LOW ENTERS THE
GREAT LAKES AND NY STATE. NOT AS COLD SO FREEZING SPRAY UNLIKELY.
VSBY MAY BRIEFLY LOWER IN A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW.

THU...ARCTIC FRONT WITH NW GALES BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE. MODERATE TO
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY POSSIBLE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
*** MINOR TO PERHAPS ISOLATED AREAS OF MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING
  POSSIBLE MON/MON NIGHT EASTERN MA COASTLINE ***

GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON SURFACE LOW TRACKING SOMEWHERE BETWEEN
NANTUCKET AND THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK WITH NAM THE FASTEST AND GFS
FARTHEST NORTHWEST. ECMWF SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE. MODEL CONSENSUS
BRINGS STRONGEST ONSHORE WINDS BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z...CLOSE TO LOW
TIDE. IF THIS TIMING HOLDS UP WORST CASE SCENARIO WOULD BE MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING.

THE FIRST TIDE CYCLE OF CONCERN IS THE MONDAY MID MORNING. HOWEVER
ALL WAVE GUID SUGGEST SEAS LESS THAN 10 FT AT HIGH TIDE GIVEN
ARRIVAL OF STRONGEST WINDS LATER DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS ALSO
YIELDS SURGE VALUES OF A FOOT OR LESS.

AS FOR THE MONDAY EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE...ASTRO TIDES ARE ABOUT A
1 FT LOWER. HOWEVER A STORM SURGE OF 1.5 TO 2.5 FT IS POSSIBLE.
ESTOFS AND ETSS ARE LOWER...SO I BLENDED THE TWO GUID SOURCES AND
ADDED 50 PERCENT TO COME UP WITH SURGE VALUES OF 1.5 TO 2.5 FT. IN
ADDITION...SEAS WILL LIKELY BUILD TO 15 TO 20 FT DURING THE EVENING
HIGH TIDE. ALL OF THESE FACTORS YIELD A MODERATE RISK OF MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING WITH A LOW RISK OF ISOLATED MODERATE FLOODING.

WHILE WINDS...SEAS AND STORM SURGE WILL BE LESS THAN THE PREVIOUS
COASTAL STORM THERE COULD STILL BE SOME MODEST IMPACT ESPECIALLY FOR
THOSE COMMUNITIES SUCH AS MARSHFIELD MA THAT WERE HIT HARD EARLIER
THIS WEEK WHERE COASTAL STRUCTURES SUCH AS SEAWALLS WERE DAMAGED.
GIVEN THE LOW TRACK IS CLOSE TO NANTUCKET THE GREATEST RISK OF
COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE FARTHER NORTHWARD FROM CAPE COD TO CAPE ANN
WITH PERHAPS THE HIGHEST RISK FROM HULL/COHASSET/SCITUATE/
MARSHFIELD/PLYMOUTH TO SANDWICH HARBOR.
/DUXBURY

GIVEN IT APPEARS MARGINAL FOR SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING AND STILL
48-60 HRS OUT IN TIME WILL HOLD OFF ON A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WITH EXTREMELY COLD AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW MONDAY
NIGHT...TEMPERATURES MAY FALL BACK CLOSE TO OR SURPASSING RECORD
LEVELS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AND THAT IS NOT TAKING INTO ACCOUNT
THE STRONG WINDS.

HERE ARE THE RECORD LOWS FOR TUESDAY 2/3...

BOSTON         -5 SET IN 1881
PROVIDENCE     -6 SET IN 1961
WORCESTER      -7 SET IN 1931, 1955 AND 1971
WINDSOR LOCKS  -3 SET IN 1955
BLUE HILL OBS  -7 SET IN 1955

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT
     FOR MAZ020>024.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR MAZ002>019-026.
RI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT
     FOR RIZ005>008.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR RIZ001>004.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ231>235-237.
     HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR ANZ231>235-237-250-251-254>256.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ231-
     232-250-251-254-255.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ231-232-
     250-251-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ233>235-237-256.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ233>235-237.
     GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ230-236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ230-236.
     GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ250-251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/NOCERA/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...KJC/FRANK
MARINE...KJC/FRANK/NOCERA/DUNTEN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 010541
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1241 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BLUSTERY AND VERY COLD CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW. A
MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT THE REGION VERY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY EVENING WITH HEAVY SNOW FOR MANY LOCATIONS. BITTERLY
COLD WIND CHILLS FOLLOW LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
MODERATING TEMPS WEDNESDAY THEN VERY COLD CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. A COASTAL STORM WILL PASS WELL SOUTH
OF NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE WEEK BUT WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1240 AM UPDATE...
SKC ACROSS THE REGION BUT NOTING SOME LOWER CLOUDS MOVING INTO
THE BERKSHIRES WHICH MAY SPILL INTO W ZONES OVERNIGHT. ADJUSTED
T/TD GRIDS...OTHERWISE FORECAST ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SFC RIDGE ACROSS NEW YORK STATE COLLAPSES TOWARD THE MID ATLC
COAST OVERNIGHT AS ARCTIC FRONT APPROACHES CANADIAN BORDER. SKIES
ARE CLEAR BUT SOME LOWER CLOUDS IN EASTERN NY MAY DRIFT INTO
WESTERN NEW ENG OVERNIGHT. STILL GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE COAST BUT
TREND WILL BE FOR DIMINISHING WIND OVERNIGHT. WHERE WINDS HAVE
DECOUPLED TEMPS HAVE ALREADY FALLEN TO NEAR ZERO. CURRENTLY 1 AT
ORE. EXPECT SUBZERO TEMPS NW MA WITH SINGLE NUMBERS ELSEWHERE AWAY
FROM THE COAST. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH WIND ALONG THE COAST TO KEEP
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID TEENS.

TOMORROW...

850MB ARCTIC FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TOMORROW. HOWEVER
TEMPS WILL BE WARMER THAN TODAY AS 925 MB TEMPS JUMP FROM -13C TO
-8C. EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE MID 20S TO PERHAPS THE LOW 30S
ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN. MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY WHICH WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER.
OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE CALMER AND DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAJOR WINTER STORM VERY LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON EVENING
* HEAVY SNOWFALL EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE REGION
* BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY SNOWFALL AMTS NEAR SOUTH COAST - PTYPE ISSUES
* BITTERLY COLD AIR LATE MON NIGHT - WIND CHILLS 15 TO 25 BELOW ZERO

DETAILS...

A MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND VERY LATE SUN
NIGHT INTO MONDAY EVENING.  ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA WILL COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
THE RESULT WILL BE STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER RUNNING THE
ARCTIC DOME AT THE SURFACE.  THEN AS THE LOW DEEPENS...MUCH OF THE
REGION WILL SEE SNOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM.  BIGGEST
UNCERTAINTY IS HOW MUCH OF THE REGION TRANSITIONS TO A PERIOD OF
MIXED PTYPE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE EVENT...CUTTING DOWN ON
POSSIBLE SNOW ACCUMS.

1) TIMING AND UNCERTAINTY

SNOW WILL LIKELY ARRIVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST VERY LATE SUN
EVENING IN OUR WESTERN ZONES AND AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE REST OF
THE REGION.  EXTREMELY TIGHT MID LEVEL THERMAL PACKING WILL ALLOW
SNOW TO QUICKLY BECOME HEAVY.  SNOW WILL FALL HEAVY MONDAY MORNING
AT 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR AND SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT THE AM RUSH HOUR.

THINGS THEN BECOME MORE UNCERTAIN LATER IN THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.  THE GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN SURGING WARM MID LEVEL AIR
TO THE MA PIKE...RESULTING IN A CHANGE TO A PERIOD OF SLEET/FREEZING
RAIN AND EVEN PLAIN RAIN ALONG THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.
THE NAM/ECMWF/GGEM APPEAR THE COLDEST KEEPING MOST AREAS HEAVY
SNOW...EXCEPT FOR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.  THE UKMET APPEARS TO BE IN
BETWEEN THE OTHER SOLUTIONS.  GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WILL BLEND THE
MODELS.  RIGHT NOW WERE THINKING TRANSITION AREA MAY GET BRIEFLY
NEAR OR PERHAPS JUST NORTH OF THE THE TAUNTON TO PROVIDENCE
CORRIDOR...BEFORE COLLAPSING SOUTHEAST.

REGARDLESS HOW FAR NORTH THE TRANSITION LINE GETS...MOST AREAS WILL
CHANGE BACK TO SNOW MON EVENING.  GIVEN CLOSED MID LEVEL CENTERS AND
VERY COLD NORTHEAST FLOW...COULD BE SOME OCEAN ENHANCEMENT ACROSS
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND FOR A TIME BEFORE SNOW ENDS.  BULK OF SNOW
SHOULD WIND DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT ALTHOUGH THE GGEM IS A BIT SLOWER.

2) SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS AND HEADLINES

WE ARE PRETTY CONFIDENT IN A HEAVY SNOWFALL FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION...EXCEPT FOR AREAS NEAR THE SOUTH COAST WHERE PTYPE ISSUES
MAYBE MORE PROBLEMATIC.  8 TO 14 INCHES EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION.  HAVE UPGRADED ALL AREAS FROM PROVIDENCE TO TAUNTON
NORTHWARD TO WINTER STORM WARNING/S WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON CRITERIA
BEING MET.  AREAS SOUTHEAST OF THAT LINE...THERE IS SOME MORE
UNCERTAINTY ESP CAPE/ISLANDS.  IF A LOT OF MIXING OCCURS THESE AREAS
MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH WARNING CRITERIA...BUT ITS STILL CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON MODEL TRENDS.  THEREFORE...WE HAVE HELD THE
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTH COAST AND THE ISLANDS.

3) STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW

NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 50 MPH EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS STORM INTENSIFIES AND PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES.  THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN POOR VISIBILITY ALONG WITH
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.  ITS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW LOCATIONS ALONG
THE COAST COULD SEE NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FOR A VERY SHORT
TIME...BUT STORM DOESN/T SEEM TO WARRANT THOSE TYPE OF HEADLINES.

4) BITTERLY COLD AIR MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

TEMPS WILL LIKELY PLUNGE BELOW ZERO TO 5 ABOVE ZERO IN MANY
LOCATIONS BY EARLY TUE MORNING.  THIS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS
VALUES BETWEEN 15 AND 25 BELOW ZERO. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* COLD PATTERN CONTINUES THRU NEXT WEEKEND
* CLIPPER LOW APPEARING MORE LIKELY THAN COASTAL LOW WED/THU

GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG 12Z DETERMINISTIC...12Z GEFS AND 00Z ECENS
ENSEMBLES THAT THE POLAR JET WILL DOMINATE THE NORTHERN TIER STATES
INCLUDING NEW ENGLAND THIS PERIOD. THIS COMBINED WITH STREAMS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNPHASED WILL SUPPORT MAINLY DRY WEATHER THIS
PERIOD. ONE CAVEAT WILL BE CLIPPER LOW ENTERING THE NORTHEAST
WED/WED NIGHT. EARLIER MODEL RUNS SUGGESTED SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT SOUTHWEST OF NEW ENGLAND...WITH
POSSIBLE COASTAL-OCEAN STORM IMPACTING OUR REGION AROUND THU.
HOWEVER LATEST GUID INCLUDING ENSEMBLES SUGGEST MID LEVEL TROUGH
WILL LACK SUFFICIENT AMPLITUDE TO BACK THE FLOW FOR A SECONDARY LOW
TO IMPACT THE REGION. THEREFORE LEANING TOWARD A MORE OFFSHORE TRACK
AND JUST A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE WED/WED NIGHT. HOWEVER AT
THIS TIME RANGE CAN/T BE TOO DETERMINISTIC. THUS WON`T TOTALLY
DISCOUNT CLOSER SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT.

AS FOR TEMPS...BITTERLY COLD TUE BEHIND DEPARTING MON NGT COASTAL
LOW. THEN COLD EASES WED AHEAD OF APPROACHING CLIPPER LOW FOLLOWED
BUT YET ANOTHER ARCTIC BLAST LATE IN THE WEEK BEHIND THE CLIPPER. AS
FOR INTO NEXT WEEKEND ENSEMBLE TRENDS SUGGEST TEMPS COLDER THAN
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM.../THROUGH MONDAY/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR...BUT LOW PROB FOR AREAS OF
MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.

VFR THIS EVENING DETERIORATES TO IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS IN MODERATE
TO HEAVY SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT TO DAYBREAK FROM WEST TO EAST.
IFR/LIFR IN MOD/HEAVY SNOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY MON. PTYPE
MAY TRANSITION TO A PERIOD OF SLEET/FREEZING RAIN AROUND MIDDAY
FROM PVD-TAN-PYM SOUTH AND CHANGING TO RAIN OVER THE OUTER
CAPE/ISLANDS. NE WIND GUSTS TO 30-35 KT DEVELOPING ACROSS E
COASTAL MA MONDAY...WITH 25 KT ACROSS RI AND REMAINDER OF E MA.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING OF
IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING OF
IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR ON
TUESDAY. COULD SEE SOME MVFR CIGS IN SCT SNOW SHOWERS ON
WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW RISK OF MVFR
ALONG SOUTHEAST MASS DEPENDING ON TRACK OF CLIPPER LOW.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...STRONG LOW PRESSURE PULLS FARTHER AWAY WITH WINDS
DIMINISHING BELOW GALE AFTER 06Z...BUT GUSTS 25-30 KT WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY LIKELY
CONTINUING...ESPECIALLY E MA COASTAL WATERS.

SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGHOUT THE DAY BUT EXPECT SCA
WAVES TO REMAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY WILL
PERSIST.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

***STRONG GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS/HIGH SEAS AND THE RISK OF HEAVY
  FREEZING SPRAY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT***

WINDS/SEAS QUICKLY RAMP UP VERY LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON AS LOW
PRESSURE INTENSIFIES NEAR THE SOUTH COAST. GALE WATCHES ISSUED FOR
EXPECTED 40+ KNOT NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS BY MON MORNING.
SEAS BUILD TO 15+ FEET ACROSS OUR EASTERN WATERS BY LATE MON
AFTERNOON/EVENING. IN ADDITION...BITTERLY COLD AIR MOVING OVER THE
WATERS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. HAVE ALSO ISSUED A FREEZING SPRAY WATCH.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE TO HIGH FORECAST
CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY...NW GALES LIKELY ALONG WITH FREEZING SPRAY...POSSIBLY
MODERATE TO HEAVY. MAINLY DRY WITH GOOD VSBY EXCEPT FAR OFFSHORE
WHERE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE COMMON.

WED...WINDS EASE AND BECOME SOUTHWEST AS CLIPPER LOW ENTERS THE
GREAT LAKES AND NY STATE. NOT AS COLD SO FREEZING SPRAY UNLIKELY.
VSBY MAY BRIEFLY LOWER IN A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW.

THU...ARCTIC FRONT WITH NW GALES BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE. MODERATE TO
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY POSSIBLE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
*** MINOR TO PERHAPS ISOLATED AREAS OF MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING
  POSSIBLE MON/MON NIGHT EASTERN MA COASTLINE ***

GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON SURFACE LOW TRACKING SOMEWHERE BETWEEN
NANTUCKET AND THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK WITH NAM THE FASTEST AND GFS
FARTHEST NORTHWEST. ECMWF SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE. MODEL CONSENSUS
BRINGS STRONGEST ONSHORE WINDS BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z...CLOSE TO LOW
TIDE. IF THIS TIMING HOLDS UP WORST CASE SCENARIO WOULD BE MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING.

THE FIRST TIDE CYCLE OF CONCERN IS THE MONDAY MID MORNING. HOWEVER
ALL WAVE GUID SUGGEST SEAS LESS THAN 10 FT AT HIGH TIDE GIVEN
ARRIVAL OF STRONGEST WINDS LATER DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS ALSO
YIELDS SURGE VALUES OF A FOOT OR LESS.

AS FOR THE MONDAY EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE...ASTRO TIDES ARE ABOUT A
1 FT LOWER. HOWEVER A STORM SURGE OF 1.5 TO 2.5 FT IS POSSIBLE.
ESTOFS AND ETSS ARE LOWER...SO I BLENDED THE TWO GUID SOURCES AND
ADDED 50 PERCENT TO COME UP WITH SURGE VALUES OF 1.5 TO 2.5 FT. IN
ADDITION...SEAS WILL LIKELY BUILD TO 15 TO 20 FT DURING THE EVENING
HIGH TIDE. ALL OF THESE FACTORS YIELD A MODERATE RISK OF MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING WITH A LOW RISK OF ISOLATED MODERATE FLOODING.

WHILE WINDS...SEAS AND STORM SURGE WILL BE LESS THAN THE PREVIOUS
COASTAL STORM THERE COULD STILL BE SOME MODEST IMPACT ESPECIALLY FOR
THOSE COMMUNITIES SUCH AS MARSHFIELD MA THAT WERE HIT HARD EARLIER
THIS WEEK WHERE COASTAL STRUCTURES SUCH AS SEAWALLS WERE DAMAGED.
GIVEN THE LOW TRACK IS CLOSE TO NANTUCKET THE GREATEST RISK OF
COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE FARTHER NORTHWARD FROM CAPE COD TO CAPE ANN
WITH PERHAPS THE HIGHEST RISK FROM HULL/COHASSET/SCITUATE/
MARSHFIELD/PLYMOUTH TO SANDWICH HARBOR.
/DUXBURY

GIVEN IT APPEARS MARGINAL FOR SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING AND STILL
48-60 HRS OUT IN TIME WILL HOLD OFF ON A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WITH EXTREMELY COLD AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW MONDAY
NIGHT...TEMPERATURES MAY FALL BACK CLOSE TO OR SURPASSING RECORD
LEVELS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AND THAT IS NOT TAKING INTO ACCOUNT
THE STRONG WINDS.

HERE ARE THE RECORD LOWS FOR TUESDAY 2/3...

BOSTON         -5 SET IN 1881
PROVIDENCE     -6 SET IN 1961
WORCESTER      -7 SET IN 1931, 1955 AND 1971
WINDSOR LOCKS  -3 SET IN 1955
BLUE HILL OBS  -7 SET IN 1955

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT
     FOR MAZ020>024.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR MAZ002>019-026.
RI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT
     FOR RIZ005>008.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR RIZ001>004.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ231>235-237.
     HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR ANZ231>235-237-250-251-254>256.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ231-
     232-250-251-254-255.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ231-232-
     250-251-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ233>235-237-256.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ233>235-237.
     GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ230-236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ230-236.
     GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ250-251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/NOCERA/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...KJC/FRANK
MARINE...KJC/FRANK/NOCERA/DUNTEN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 010541
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1241 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BLUSTERY AND VERY COLD CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW. A
MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT THE REGION VERY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY EVENING WITH HEAVY SNOW FOR MANY LOCATIONS. BITTERLY
COLD WIND CHILLS FOLLOW LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
MODERATING TEMPS WEDNESDAY THEN VERY COLD CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. A COASTAL STORM WILL PASS WELL SOUTH
OF NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE WEEK BUT WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1240 AM UPDATE...
SKC ACROSS THE REGION BUT NOTING SOME LOWER CLOUDS MOVING INTO
THE BERKSHIRES WHICH MAY SPILL INTO W ZONES OVERNIGHT. ADJUSTED
T/TD GRIDS...OTHERWISE FORECAST ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SFC RIDGE ACROSS NEW YORK STATE COLLAPSES TOWARD THE MID ATLC
COAST OVERNIGHT AS ARCTIC FRONT APPROACHES CANADIAN BORDER. SKIES
ARE CLEAR BUT SOME LOWER CLOUDS IN EASTERN NY MAY DRIFT INTO
WESTERN NEW ENG OVERNIGHT. STILL GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE COAST BUT
TREND WILL BE FOR DIMINISHING WIND OVERNIGHT. WHERE WINDS HAVE
DECOUPLED TEMPS HAVE ALREADY FALLEN TO NEAR ZERO. CURRENTLY 1 AT
ORE. EXPECT SUBZERO TEMPS NW MA WITH SINGLE NUMBERS ELSEWHERE AWAY
FROM THE COAST. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH WIND ALONG THE COAST TO KEEP
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID TEENS.

TOMORROW...

850MB ARCTIC FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TOMORROW. HOWEVER
TEMPS WILL BE WARMER THAN TODAY AS 925 MB TEMPS JUMP FROM -13C TO
-8C. EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE MID 20S TO PERHAPS THE LOW 30S
ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN. MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY WHICH WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER.
OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE CALMER AND DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAJOR WINTER STORM VERY LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON EVENING
* HEAVY SNOWFALL EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE REGION
* BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY SNOWFALL AMTS NEAR SOUTH COAST - PTYPE ISSUES
* BITTERLY COLD AIR LATE MON NIGHT - WIND CHILLS 15 TO 25 BELOW ZERO

DETAILS...

A MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND VERY LATE SUN
NIGHT INTO MONDAY EVENING.  ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA WILL COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
THE RESULT WILL BE STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER RUNNING THE
ARCTIC DOME AT THE SURFACE.  THEN AS THE LOW DEEPENS...MUCH OF THE
REGION WILL SEE SNOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM.  BIGGEST
UNCERTAINTY IS HOW MUCH OF THE REGION TRANSITIONS TO A PERIOD OF
MIXED PTYPE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE EVENT...CUTTING DOWN ON
POSSIBLE SNOW ACCUMS.

1) TIMING AND UNCERTAINTY

SNOW WILL LIKELY ARRIVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST VERY LATE SUN
EVENING IN OUR WESTERN ZONES AND AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE REST OF
THE REGION.  EXTREMELY TIGHT MID LEVEL THERMAL PACKING WILL ALLOW
SNOW TO QUICKLY BECOME HEAVY.  SNOW WILL FALL HEAVY MONDAY MORNING
AT 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR AND SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT THE AM RUSH HOUR.

THINGS THEN BECOME MORE UNCERTAIN LATER IN THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.  THE GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN SURGING WARM MID LEVEL AIR
TO THE MA PIKE...RESULTING IN A CHANGE TO A PERIOD OF SLEET/FREEZING
RAIN AND EVEN PLAIN RAIN ALONG THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.
THE NAM/ECMWF/GGEM APPEAR THE COLDEST KEEPING MOST AREAS HEAVY
SNOW...EXCEPT FOR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.  THE UKMET APPEARS TO BE IN
BETWEEN THE OTHER SOLUTIONS.  GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WILL BLEND THE
MODELS.  RIGHT NOW WERE THINKING TRANSITION AREA MAY GET BRIEFLY
NEAR OR PERHAPS JUST NORTH OF THE THE TAUNTON TO PROVIDENCE
CORRIDOR...BEFORE COLLAPSING SOUTHEAST.

REGARDLESS HOW FAR NORTH THE TRANSITION LINE GETS...MOST AREAS WILL
CHANGE BACK TO SNOW MON EVENING.  GIVEN CLOSED MID LEVEL CENTERS AND
VERY COLD NORTHEAST FLOW...COULD BE SOME OCEAN ENHANCEMENT ACROSS
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND FOR A TIME BEFORE SNOW ENDS.  BULK OF SNOW
SHOULD WIND DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT ALTHOUGH THE GGEM IS A BIT SLOWER.

2) SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS AND HEADLINES

WE ARE PRETTY CONFIDENT IN A HEAVY SNOWFALL FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION...EXCEPT FOR AREAS NEAR THE SOUTH COAST WHERE PTYPE ISSUES
MAYBE MORE PROBLEMATIC.  8 TO 14 INCHES EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION.  HAVE UPGRADED ALL AREAS FROM PROVIDENCE TO TAUNTON
NORTHWARD TO WINTER STORM WARNING/S WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON CRITERIA
BEING MET.  AREAS SOUTHEAST OF THAT LINE...THERE IS SOME MORE
UNCERTAINTY ESP CAPE/ISLANDS.  IF A LOT OF MIXING OCCURS THESE AREAS
MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH WARNING CRITERIA...BUT ITS STILL CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON MODEL TRENDS.  THEREFORE...WE HAVE HELD THE
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTH COAST AND THE ISLANDS.

3) STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW

NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 50 MPH EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS STORM INTENSIFIES AND PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES.  THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN POOR VISIBILITY ALONG WITH
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.  ITS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW LOCATIONS ALONG
THE COAST COULD SEE NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FOR A VERY SHORT
TIME...BUT STORM DOESN/T SEEM TO WARRANT THOSE TYPE OF HEADLINES.

4) BITTERLY COLD AIR MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

TEMPS WILL LIKELY PLUNGE BELOW ZERO TO 5 ABOVE ZERO IN MANY
LOCATIONS BY EARLY TUE MORNING.  THIS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS
VALUES BETWEEN 15 AND 25 BELOW ZERO. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* COLD PATTERN CONTINUES THRU NEXT WEEKEND
* CLIPPER LOW APPEARING MORE LIKELY THAN COASTAL LOW WED/THU

GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG 12Z DETERMINISTIC...12Z GEFS AND 00Z ECENS
ENSEMBLES THAT THE POLAR JET WILL DOMINATE THE NORTHERN TIER STATES
INCLUDING NEW ENGLAND THIS PERIOD. THIS COMBINED WITH STREAMS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNPHASED WILL SUPPORT MAINLY DRY WEATHER THIS
PERIOD. ONE CAVEAT WILL BE CLIPPER LOW ENTERING THE NORTHEAST
WED/WED NIGHT. EARLIER MODEL RUNS SUGGESTED SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT SOUTHWEST OF NEW ENGLAND...WITH
POSSIBLE COASTAL-OCEAN STORM IMPACTING OUR REGION AROUND THU.
HOWEVER LATEST GUID INCLUDING ENSEMBLES SUGGEST MID LEVEL TROUGH
WILL LACK SUFFICIENT AMPLITUDE TO BACK THE FLOW FOR A SECONDARY LOW
TO IMPACT THE REGION. THEREFORE LEANING TOWARD A MORE OFFSHORE TRACK
AND JUST A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE WED/WED NIGHT. HOWEVER AT
THIS TIME RANGE CAN/T BE TOO DETERMINISTIC. THUS WON`T TOTALLY
DISCOUNT CLOSER SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT.

AS FOR TEMPS...BITTERLY COLD TUE BEHIND DEPARTING MON NGT COASTAL
LOW. THEN COLD EASES WED AHEAD OF APPROACHING CLIPPER LOW FOLLOWED
BUT YET ANOTHER ARCTIC BLAST LATE IN THE WEEK BEHIND THE CLIPPER. AS
FOR INTO NEXT WEEKEND ENSEMBLE TRENDS SUGGEST TEMPS COLDER THAN
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM.../THROUGH MONDAY/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR...BUT LOW PROB FOR AREAS OF
MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.

VFR THIS EVENING DETERIORATES TO IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS IN MODERATE
TO HEAVY SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT TO DAYBREAK FROM WEST TO EAST.
IFR/LIFR IN MOD/HEAVY SNOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY MON. PTYPE
MAY TRANSITION TO A PERIOD OF SLEET/FREEZING RAIN AROUND MIDDAY
FROM PVD-TAN-PYM SOUTH AND CHANGING TO RAIN OVER THE OUTER
CAPE/ISLANDS. NE WIND GUSTS TO 30-35 KT DEVELOPING ACROSS E
COASTAL MA MONDAY...WITH 25 KT ACROSS RI AND REMAINDER OF E MA.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING OF
IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING OF
IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR ON
TUESDAY. COULD SEE SOME MVFR CIGS IN SCT SNOW SHOWERS ON
WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW RISK OF MVFR
ALONG SOUTHEAST MASS DEPENDING ON TRACK OF CLIPPER LOW.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...STRONG LOW PRESSURE PULLS FARTHER AWAY WITH WINDS
DIMINISHING BELOW GALE AFTER 06Z...BUT GUSTS 25-30 KT WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY LIKELY
CONTINUING...ESPECIALLY E MA COASTAL WATERS.

SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGHOUT THE DAY BUT EXPECT SCA
WAVES TO REMAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY WILL
PERSIST.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

***STRONG GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS/HIGH SEAS AND THE RISK OF HEAVY
  FREEZING SPRAY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT***

WINDS/SEAS QUICKLY RAMP UP VERY LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON AS LOW
PRESSURE INTENSIFIES NEAR THE SOUTH COAST. GALE WATCHES ISSUED FOR
EXPECTED 40+ KNOT NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS BY MON MORNING.
SEAS BUILD TO 15+ FEET ACROSS OUR EASTERN WATERS BY LATE MON
AFTERNOON/EVENING. IN ADDITION...BITTERLY COLD AIR MOVING OVER THE
WATERS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. HAVE ALSO ISSUED A FREEZING SPRAY WATCH.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE TO HIGH FORECAST
CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY...NW GALES LIKELY ALONG WITH FREEZING SPRAY...POSSIBLY
MODERATE TO HEAVY. MAINLY DRY WITH GOOD VSBY EXCEPT FAR OFFSHORE
WHERE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE COMMON.

WED...WINDS EASE AND BECOME SOUTHWEST AS CLIPPER LOW ENTERS THE
GREAT LAKES AND NY STATE. NOT AS COLD SO FREEZING SPRAY UNLIKELY.
VSBY MAY BRIEFLY LOWER IN A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW.

THU...ARCTIC FRONT WITH NW GALES BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE. MODERATE TO
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY POSSIBLE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
*** MINOR TO PERHAPS ISOLATED AREAS OF MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING
  POSSIBLE MON/MON NIGHT EASTERN MA COASTLINE ***

GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON SURFACE LOW TRACKING SOMEWHERE BETWEEN
NANTUCKET AND THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK WITH NAM THE FASTEST AND GFS
FARTHEST NORTHWEST. ECMWF SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE. MODEL CONSENSUS
BRINGS STRONGEST ONSHORE WINDS BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z...CLOSE TO LOW
TIDE. IF THIS TIMING HOLDS UP WORST CASE SCENARIO WOULD BE MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING.

THE FIRST TIDE CYCLE OF CONCERN IS THE MONDAY MID MORNING. HOWEVER
ALL WAVE GUID SUGGEST SEAS LESS THAN 10 FT AT HIGH TIDE GIVEN
ARRIVAL OF STRONGEST WINDS LATER DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS ALSO
YIELDS SURGE VALUES OF A FOOT OR LESS.

AS FOR THE MONDAY EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE...ASTRO TIDES ARE ABOUT A
1 FT LOWER. HOWEVER A STORM SURGE OF 1.5 TO 2.5 FT IS POSSIBLE.
ESTOFS AND ETSS ARE LOWER...SO I BLENDED THE TWO GUID SOURCES AND
ADDED 50 PERCENT TO COME UP WITH SURGE VALUES OF 1.5 TO 2.5 FT. IN
ADDITION...SEAS WILL LIKELY BUILD TO 15 TO 20 FT DURING THE EVENING
HIGH TIDE. ALL OF THESE FACTORS YIELD A MODERATE RISK OF MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING WITH A LOW RISK OF ISOLATED MODERATE FLOODING.

WHILE WINDS...SEAS AND STORM SURGE WILL BE LESS THAN THE PREVIOUS
COASTAL STORM THERE COULD STILL BE SOME MODEST IMPACT ESPECIALLY FOR
THOSE COMMUNITIES SUCH AS MARSHFIELD MA THAT WERE HIT HARD EARLIER
THIS WEEK WHERE COASTAL STRUCTURES SUCH AS SEAWALLS WERE DAMAGED.
GIVEN THE LOW TRACK IS CLOSE TO NANTUCKET THE GREATEST RISK OF
COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE FARTHER NORTHWARD FROM CAPE COD TO CAPE ANN
WITH PERHAPS THE HIGHEST RISK FROM HULL/COHASSET/SCITUATE/
MARSHFIELD/PLYMOUTH TO SANDWICH HARBOR.
/DUXBURY

GIVEN IT APPEARS MARGINAL FOR SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING AND STILL
48-60 HRS OUT IN TIME WILL HOLD OFF ON A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WITH EXTREMELY COLD AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW MONDAY
NIGHT...TEMPERATURES MAY FALL BACK CLOSE TO OR SURPASSING RECORD
LEVELS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AND THAT IS NOT TAKING INTO ACCOUNT
THE STRONG WINDS.

HERE ARE THE RECORD LOWS FOR TUESDAY 2/3...

BOSTON         -5 SET IN 1881
PROVIDENCE     -6 SET IN 1961
WORCESTER      -7 SET IN 1931, 1955 AND 1971
WINDSOR LOCKS  -3 SET IN 1955
BLUE HILL OBS  -7 SET IN 1955

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT
     FOR MAZ020>024.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR MAZ002>019-026.
RI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT
     FOR RIZ005>008.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR RIZ001>004.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ231>235-237.
     HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR ANZ231>235-237-250-251-254>256.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ231-
     232-250-251-254-255.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ231-232-
     250-251-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ233>235-237-256.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ233>235-237.
     GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ230-236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ230-236.
     GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ250-251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/NOCERA/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...KJC/FRANK
MARINE...KJC/FRANK/NOCERA/DUNTEN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 010541
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1241 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BLUSTERY AND VERY COLD CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW. A
MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT THE REGION VERY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY EVENING WITH HEAVY SNOW FOR MANY LOCATIONS. BITTERLY
COLD WIND CHILLS FOLLOW LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
MODERATING TEMPS WEDNESDAY THEN VERY COLD CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. A COASTAL STORM WILL PASS WELL SOUTH
OF NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE WEEK BUT WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1240 AM UPDATE...
SKC ACROSS THE REGION BUT NOTING SOME LOWER CLOUDS MOVING INTO
THE BERKSHIRES WHICH MAY SPILL INTO W ZONES OVERNIGHT. ADJUSTED
T/TD GRIDS...OTHERWISE FORECAST ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SFC RIDGE ACROSS NEW YORK STATE COLLAPSES TOWARD THE MID ATLC
COAST OVERNIGHT AS ARCTIC FRONT APPROACHES CANADIAN BORDER. SKIES
ARE CLEAR BUT SOME LOWER CLOUDS IN EASTERN NY MAY DRIFT INTO
WESTERN NEW ENG OVERNIGHT. STILL GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE COAST BUT
TREND WILL BE FOR DIMINISHING WIND OVERNIGHT. WHERE WINDS HAVE
DECOUPLED TEMPS HAVE ALREADY FALLEN TO NEAR ZERO. CURRENTLY 1 AT
ORE. EXPECT SUBZERO TEMPS NW MA WITH SINGLE NUMBERS ELSEWHERE AWAY
FROM THE COAST. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH WIND ALONG THE COAST TO KEEP
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID TEENS.

TOMORROW...

850MB ARCTIC FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TOMORROW. HOWEVER
TEMPS WILL BE WARMER THAN TODAY AS 925 MB TEMPS JUMP FROM -13C TO
-8C. EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE MID 20S TO PERHAPS THE LOW 30S
ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN. MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY WHICH WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER.
OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE CALMER AND DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAJOR WINTER STORM VERY LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON EVENING
* HEAVY SNOWFALL EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE REGION
* BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY SNOWFALL AMTS NEAR SOUTH COAST - PTYPE ISSUES
* BITTERLY COLD AIR LATE MON NIGHT - WIND CHILLS 15 TO 25 BELOW ZERO

DETAILS...

A MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND VERY LATE SUN
NIGHT INTO MONDAY EVENING.  ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA WILL COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
THE RESULT WILL BE STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER RUNNING THE
ARCTIC DOME AT THE SURFACE.  THEN AS THE LOW DEEPENS...MUCH OF THE
REGION WILL SEE SNOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM.  BIGGEST
UNCERTAINTY IS HOW MUCH OF THE REGION TRANSITIONS TO A PERIOD OF
MIXED PTYPE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE EVENT...CUTTING DOWN ON
POSSIBLE SNOW ACCUMS.

1) TIMING AND UNCERTAINTY

SNOW WILL LIKELY ARRIVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST VERY LATE SUN
EVENING IN OUR WESTERN ZONES AND AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE REST OF
THE REGION.  EXTREMELY TIGHT MID LEVEL THERMAL PACKING WILL ALLOW
SNOW TO QUICKLY BECOME HEAVY.  SNOW WILL FALL HEAVY MONDAY MORNING
AT 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR AND SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT THE AM RUSH HOUR.

THINGS THEN BECOME MORE UNCERTAIN LATER IN THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.  THE GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN SURGING WARM MID LEVEL AIR
TO THE MA PIKE...RESULTING IN A CHANGE TO A PERIOD OF SLEET/FREEZING
RAIN AND EVEN PLAIN RAIN ALONG THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.
THE NAM/ECMWF/GGEM APPEAR THE COLDEST KEEPING MOST AREAS HEAVY
SNOW...EXCEPT FOR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.  THE UKMET APPEARS TO BE IN
BETWEEN THE OTHER SOLUTIONS.  GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WILL BLEND THE
MODELS.  RIGHT NOW WERE THINKING TRANSITION AREA MAY GET BRIEFLY
NEAR OR PERHAPS JUST NORTH OF THE THE TAUNTON TO PROVIDENCE
CORRIDOR...BEFORE COLLAPSING SOUTHEAST.

REGARDLESS HOW FAR NORTH THE TRANSITION LINE GETS...MOST AREAS WILL
CHANGE BACK TO SNOW MON EVENING.  GIVEN CLOSED MID LEVEL CENTERS AND
VERY COLD NORTHEAST FLOW...COULD BE SOME OCEAN ENHANCEMENT ACROSS
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND FOR A TIME BEFORE SNOW ENDS.  BULK OF SNOW
SHOULD WIND DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT ALTHOUGH THE GGEM IS A BIT SLOWER.

2) SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS AND HEADLINES

WE ARE PRETTY CONFIDENT IN A HEAVY SNOWFALL FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION...EXCEPT FOR AREAS NEAR THE SOUTH COAST WHERE PTYPE ISSUES
MAYBE MORE PROBLEMATIC.  8 TO 14 INCHES EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION.  HAVE UPGRADED ALL AREAS FROM PROVIDENCE TO TAUNTON
NORTHWARD TO WINTER STORM WARNING/S WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON CRITERIA
BEING MET.  AREAS SOUTHEAST OF THAT LINE...THERE IS SOME MORE
UNCERTAINTY ESP CAPE/ISLANDS.  IF A LOT OF MIXING OCCURS THESE AREAS
MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH WARNING CRITERIA...BUT ITS STILL CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON MODEL TRENDS.  THEREFORE...WE HAVE HELD THE
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTH COAST AND THE ISLANDS.

3) STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW

NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 50 MPH EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS STORM INTENSIFIES AND PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES.  THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN POOR VISIBILITY ALONG WITH
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.  ITS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW LOCATIONS ALONG
THE COAST COULD SEE NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FOR A VERY SHORT
TIME...BUT STORM DOESN/T SEEM TO WARRANT THOSE TYPE OF HEADLINES.

4) BITTERLY COLD AIR MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

TEMPS WILL LIKELY PLUNGE BELOW ZERO TO 5 ABOVE ZERO IN MANY
LOCATIONS BY EARLY TUE MORNING.  THIS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS
VALUES BETWEEN 15 AND 25 BELOW ZERO. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* COLD PATTERN CONTINUES THRU NEXT WEEKEND
* CLIPPER LOW APPEARING MORE LIKELY THAN COASTAL LOW WED/THU

GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG 12Z DETERMINISTIC...12Z GEFS AND 00Z ECENS
ENSEMBLES THAT THE POLAR JET WILL DOMINATE THE NORTHERN TIER STATES
INCLUDING NEW ENGLAND THIS PERIOD. THIS COMBINED WITH STREAMS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNPHASED WILL SUPPORT MAINLY DRY WEATHER THIS
PERIOD. ONE CAVEAT WILL BE CLIPPER LOW ENTERING THE NORTHEAST
WED/WED NIGHT. EARLIER MODEL RUNS SUGGESTED SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT SOUTHWEST OF NEW ENGLAND...WITH
POSSIBLE COASTAL-OCEAN STORM IMPACTING OUR REGION AROUND THU.
HOWEVER LATEST GUID INCLUDING ENSEMBLES SUGGEST MID LEVEL TROUGH
WILL LACK SUFFICIENT AMPLITUDE TO BACK THE FLOW FOR A SECONDARY LOW
TO IMPACT THE REGION. THEREFORE LEANING TOWARD A MORE OFFSHORE TRACK
AND JUST A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE WED/WED NIGHT. HOWEVER AT
THIS TIME RANGE CAN/T BE TOO DETERMINISTIC. THUS WON`T TOTALLY
DISCOUNT CLOSER SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT.

AS FOR TEMPS...BITTERLY COLD TUE BEHIND DEPARTING MON NGT COASTAL
LOW. THEN COLD EASES WED AHEAD OF APPROACHING CLIPPER LOW FOLLOWED
BUT YET ANOTHER ARCTIC BLAST LATE IN THE WEEK BEHIND THE CLIPPER. AS
FOR INTO NEXT WEEKEND ENSEMBLE TRENDS SUGGEST TEMPS COLDER THAN
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM.../THROUGH MONDAY/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR...BUT LOW PROB FOR AREAS OF
MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.

VFR THIS EVENING DETERIORATES TO IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS IN MODERATE
TO HEAVY SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT TO DAYBREAK FROM WEST TO EAST.
IFR/LIFR IN MOD/HEAVY SNOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY MON. PTYPE
MAY TRANSITION TO A PERIOD OF SLEET/FREEZING RAIN AROUND MIDDAY
FROM PVD-TAN-PYM SOUTH AND CHANGING TO RAIN OVER THE OUTER
CAPE/ISLANDS. NE WIND GUSTS TO 30-35 KT DEVELOPING ACROSS E
COASTAL MA MONDAY...WITH 25 KT ACROSS RI AND REMAINDER OF E MA.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING OF
IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING OF
IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR ON
TUESDAY. COULD SEE SOME MVFR CIGS IN SCT SNOW SHOWERS ON
WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW RISK OF MVFR
ALONG SOUTHEAST MASS DEPENDING ON TRACK OF CLIPPER LOW.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...STRONG LOW PRESSURE PULLS FARTHER AWAY WITH WINDS
DIMINISHING BELOW GALE AFTER 06Z...BUT GUSTS 25-30 KT WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY LIKELY
CONTINUING...ESPECIALLY E MA COASTAL WATERS.

SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGHOUT THE DAY BUT EXPECT SCA
WAVES TO REMAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY WILL
PERSIST.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

***STRONG GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS/HIGH SEAS AND THE RISK OF HEAVY
  FREEZING SPRAY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT***

WINDS/SEAS QUICKLY RAMP UP VERY LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON AS LOW
PRESSURE INTENSIFIES NEAR THE SOUTH COAST. GALE WATCHES ISSUED FOR
EXPECTED 40+ KNOT NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS BY MON MORNING.
SEAS BUILD TO 15+ FEET ACROSS OUR EASTERN WATERS BY LATE MON
AFTERNOON/EVENING. IN ADDITION...BITTERLY COLD AIR MOVING OVER THE
WATERS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. HAVE ALSO ISSUED A FREEZING SPRAY WATCH.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE TO HIGH FORECAST
CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY...NW GALES LIKELY ALONG WITH FREEZING SPRAY...POSSIBLY
MODERATE TO HEAVY. MAINLY DRY WITH GOOD VSBY EXCEPT FAR OFFSHORE
WHERE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE COMMON.

WED...WINDS EASE AND BECOME SOUTHWEST AS CLIPPER LOW ENTERS THE
GREAT LAKES AND NY STATE. NOT AS COLD SO FREEZING SPRAY UNLIKELY.
VSBY MAY BRIEFLY LOWER IN A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW.

THU...ARCTIC FRONT WITH NW GALES BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE. MODERATE TO
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY POSSIBLE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
*** MINOR TO PERHAPS ISOLATED AREAS OF MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING
  POSSIBLE MON/MON NIGHT EASTERN MA COASTLINE ***

GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON SURFACE LOW TRACKING SOMEWHERE BETWEEN
NANTUCKET AND THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK WITH NAM THE FASTEST AND GFS
FARTHEST NORTHWEST. ECMWF SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE. MODEL CONSENSUS
BRINGS STRONGEST ONSHORE WINDS BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z...CLOSE TO LOW
TIDE. IF THIS TIMING HOLDS UP WORST CASE SCENARIO WOULD BE MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING.

THE FIRST TIDE CYCLE OF CONCERN IS THE MONDAY MID MORNING. HOWEVER
ALL WAVE GUID SUGGEST SEAS LESS THAN 10 FT AT HIGH TIDE GIVEN
ARRIVAL OF STRONGEST WINDS LATER DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS ALSO
YIELDS SURGE VALUES OF A FOOT OR LESS.

AS FOR THE MONDAY EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE...ASTRO TIDES ARE ABOUT A
1 FT LOWER. HOWEVER A STORM SURGE OF 1.5 TO 2.5 FT IS POSSIBLE.
ESTOFS AND ETSS ARE LOWER...SO I BLENDED THE TWO GUID SOURCES AND
ADDED 50 PERCENT TO COME UP WITH SURGE VALUES OF 1.5 TO 2.5 FT. IN
ADDITION...SEAS WILL LIKELY BUILD TO 15 TO 20 FT DURING THE EVENING
HIGH TIDE. ALL OF THESE FACTORS YIELD A MODERATE RISK OF MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING WITH A LOW RISK OF ISOLATED MODERATE FLOODING.

WHILE WINDS...SEAS AND STORM SURGE WILL BE LESS THAN THE PREVIOUS
COASTAL STORM THERE COULD STILL BE SOME MODEST IMPACT ESPECIALLY FOR
THOSE COMMUNITIES SUCH AS MARSHFIELD MA THAT WERE HIT HARD EARLIER
THIS WEEK WHERE COASTAL STRUCTURES SUCH AS SEAWALLS WERE DAMAGED.
GIVEN THE LOW TRACK IS CLOSE TO NANTUCKET THE GREATEST RISK OF
COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE FARTHER NORTHWARD FROM CAPE COD TO CAPE ANN
WITH PERHAPS THE HIGHEST RISK FROM HULL/COHASSET/SCITUATE/
MARSHFIELD/PLYMOUTH TO SANDWICH HARBOR.
/DUXBURY

GIVEN IT APPEARS MARGINAL FOR SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING AND STILL
48-60 HRS OUT IN TIME WILL HOLD OFF ON A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WITH EXTREMELY COLD AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW MONDAY
NIGHT...TEMPERATURES MAY FALL BACK CLOSE TO OR SURPASSING RECORD
LEVELS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AND THAT IS NOT TAKING INTO ACCOUNT
THE STRONG WINDS.

HERE ARE THE RECORD LOWS FOR TUESDAY 2/3...

BOSTON         -5 SET IN 1881
PROVIDENCE     -6 SET IN 1961
WORCESTER      -7 SET IN 1931, 1955 AND 1971
WINDSOR LOCKS  -3 SET IN 1955
BLUE HILL OBS  -7 SET IN 1955

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT
     FOR MAZ020>024.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR MAZ002>019-026.
RI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT
     FOR RIZ005>008.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR RIZ001>004.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ231>235-237.
     HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR ANZ231>235-237-250-251-254>256.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ231-
     232-250-251-254-255.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ231-232-
     250-251-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ233>235-237-256.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ233>235-237.
     GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ230-236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ230-236.
     GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ250-251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/NOCERA/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...KJC/FRANK
MARINE...KJC/FRANK/NOCERA/DUNTEN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KOKX 010539
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1239 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TONIGHT...BEFORE A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND CROSSES ON SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY AND PASSES JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND MONDAY. THE
LOW TRACKS WELL TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN ITS PLACE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL LARGELY PREVAIL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
LATE WEDNESDAY. A DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE GULF COAST STATES LATE
IN THE WEEK LOOKS TO TAKE A TRACK WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
MINOR CHANGES MADE TO REFLECT CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...OTHERWISE
FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM
THE WEST. A POLAR FRONT CONTINUES TO APPROACH FROM THE GREAT
LAKES.

WINDS AND GUSTS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE. CLOUDS ARE INCREASING FROM THE
NW PER SATELLITE.

TEMPS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS COLD WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
TEENS...EXCEPT 20S NYC/NJ METRO...WITH NEUTRAL TEMP ADVECTION AND
LIMITED OPPORTUNITY FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. COULD SEE SOME SINGLE
DIGITS IN PINE BARRENS AND INTERIOR TRI-STATE WITH DECOUPLING
BEFORE CLOUDS MOVE IN.

PHASING NORTHERN STREAM AND SW US SHORTWAVE ENERGY BEGINS TO DIG
INTO THE CENTRAL US ON SUNDAY WITH GENERALLY WSW UPPER FLOW.

A WEAKENING POLAR FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION ON SUNDAY...BUT
OTHERWISE INCREASING AND LOWERING CLOUDS AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING
STORM SYSTEM. A FEW SNOW FLAKES MAY BE OBSERVED OVER NJ VERY LATE IN
THE DAY. TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
MAIN STORY WILL BE NEXT IN A SERIES OF WINTER STORMS AFFECTING THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH LOW PRESSURE TAKING SHAPE
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN TONIGHT...TRACKING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON
SUNDAY AND THEN JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. OVERALL
TREND HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH AND WETTER WITH THIS SYSTEM.

BASED ON COUPLED JET STRUCTURE...TIGHT LOW /MID-LEVEL THERMAL
STRUCTURE...AND GULF MOISTURE FEED OF 2-3 STD PWATS...CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH IN AT LEAST A 3/4 TO 1 1/2 INCH QPF EVENT FOR THE ENTIRE
AREA. THIS IS BORNE OUT IN SREF/GEFS/CMCE 1 INCH/24 HR QPF PROBS.

SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY LIES IN P-TYPE...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE
COAST...WITH A SPREAD OF ABOUT 50 MILES BETWEEN OPERATIONAL
SOLUTIONS AND ENSEMBLE MEANS IN HOW CLOSE TO THE COAST THE LOW
GETS AND THE POSITION OF THE TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION. SBU ENSEMBLE SENSITIVITY SHOWING THIS N/S TRACK UNCERTAINTY
IN THE 00Z GEFS/CMCE/ECMWF ENSEMBLES...WITH SENSITIVITY LYING IN
DEGREE OF PHASING/INTERACTION BETWEEN NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DROPPING DOWN THROUGH MONTANA AND THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW OVER
THE SW US...AND RESULTANT STRENGTH OF TROUGH APPROACHING THE EAST
COAST SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AND UPSTREAM RIDGING. A STRONGER
TROUGH...MEANING MORE UPSTREAM RIDGING...AND A FURTHER NORTH
TRACK. THIS INTERACTION IS NOT COMPLETE FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS...SO
COULD TAKE UNTIL THEN FOR CONFIDENCE IN P-TYPE FORECAST INCREASES.

WITH CONFLUENT FLOW ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND/SE CANADA...ARCTIC
HIGH SHOULD BE LOCKED INTO THAT AREA. PREFER TIGHTER THERMAL
STRUCTURE ALOFT OF NAM/ECMWF/CAN VERSUS MORE DIFFUSE THERMAL
STRUCTURE OF GFS IN THIS SITUATION...BUT QUESTION IS LOCATION OF
THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE. MODEL SOLUTIONS POINTING TO DIFFERING
DEGREES OF WARMING IN THE 800-950 LAYER MON MORNING INTO EARLY
AFT...BUT TREND IS TOWARDS MORE WARMING.

WITH THIS SAID...NORTHWEST TIER OF THE TRI-STATE LOOKS TO BE
MAINLY SNOW. BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE IS FOR COAST...ESPECIALLY
NYC/NJ/LI...IN AMOUNT OF SLEET/FZRA/RA VERSUS SNOW. 12Z GFS/GEFS
ARE FURTHER NORTH WITH LOW TRACK...JUST SOUTH OF LI MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH WOULD IMPLY MORE IN THE WAY OF WARMING
ALOFT...AND MORE IN WAY MIXING WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN AND
EVEN RAIN FOR LI/NYC. 12Z GEM HAS TRENDED IN THAT DIRECTION AS
WELL. 12Z NAM...WOULD POINT TO MAINLY SNOW FOR CT AND LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY...WITH A MIX OF SIGNIFICANT SNOW/SLEET ACCUM FOR
NYC/LI/METRO NJ. 00Z ECMWF...IS SIMILARLY COLDER AND A BIT FARTHER
SOUTH AS WITH THE NAM. HAVE TAKEN A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD SOLUTION
BASED ON THE UNCERTAINTY...WITH A SLIGHTLY WETTER AND WARMER
FORECAST.

EVEN WITH CONTINUED NORTHWARD TREND...HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN
SIGNIFICANT SNOW/SLEET/ICE ACROSS INTERIOR NE NJ...AND MOST OF THE
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND CT. HAVE UPGRADED TO WARNING THERE FOR 5
TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW/SLEET AND UP TO 1/4 INCH OF ICE. INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND SW CT...MORE IN THE 8 TO 14
INCH RANGE WITH LESS ICE/SLEET.

EVEN FOR NYC/NJ METRO AND LI...COULD SEE A QUICK 3 TO 5 INCH
SNOWFALL ON THE FRONT END WITH SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE AND STRONG
LIFT LATE SUN NIGHT/EARLY MON MORNING BEFORE ANY MIXING. AFTER
CHANGEOVER...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF FZRA/SLEET (1/4 INCH OF ICE)
POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN HALF OF LI/NYC AND NE NJ...WITH COLD AIR
DRAINAGE DOWN THE RIVER VALLEYS. HAVE MAINTAINED A WATCH HERE WITH
UNCERTAINTY IF WE CHANGEOVER TO MORE RAIN...PARTICULARLY FOR SOUTH
COASTAL AREAS. THE ONE ASPECT TO KEEP IN MIND IS IF COASTAL AREAS
DO GO OVER TO RAIN...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR URBAN FLOODING ISSUES.
SEE HYDROLOGY SECTION FOR MORE INFO.

ANY RAIN/MIXED PRECIP SHOULD GRADUALLY CHANGE BACK TO SNOW FROM NW
TO SE MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVE. EVEN SOME SIGNAL OF DEFORMATION BANDING
ON THE BACKSIDE...WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW BACK DOWN TO THE COAST.
WITH COLD AIR CRASHING BACK DOWN TO THE COAST...POTENTIAL FOR
FLASH FREEZE CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY EVENING COMMUTE FOR CITY/COAST
IN WAKE OF A WASHING RAIN. SO TO SAY THE LEAST...A COMPLICATED
FORECAST FOR THE NYC/NJ METRO AND LONG ISLAND...WHICH COULD STILL
SEE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EVEN IF IT IS NOT ALL FROZEN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A BROAD UPPER TROF WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK
FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES OF WESTERN CANADA SE INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION. THIS WILL KEEP A STEADY STREAM OF POLAR AIR
MASSES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WITH GENERALLY UNSEASONABLY COLD
CONDITIONS. THIS SEASON HAS BEEN TYPIFIED BY THIS FLOW REGIME WITH
NO BLOCK OVER GREENLAND. OCCASIONALLY...A STRONG SHORT WAVE BRIEFLY
AMPLIFIES THE FLOW...BUT REMAINS PROGRESSIVE.

THE ONLY CHANCE FOR PCPN LOOKS TO BE WITH A POLAR COLD FRONT WED
INTO WED NIGHT...WHICH WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SCT SNOW SNOW SHOWERS.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED WELL SOUTH AND EAST WITH A LATE WEEK COASTAL LOW
MOVING OUT OF THE GULF COAST STATES. THUS...HAVE TRENDED DOWN TO THE
POINT WHERE THERE IS NO MENTION OF PCPN LATE IN THE WEEK.
INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH THOUGH...MODELS HAVE BEEN WAVERING BACK AND
FORTH WITH THESE SYSTEMS...SO PERHAPS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE
WOODS.

THE ONLY DAY OF THE WEEK THAT LOOKS TO BE NEAR NORMAL WITH RESPECT
TO TEMPS IS WED AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
   **HIGH IMPACT EVENT SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY**

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TERMINALS WEAKENS OVERNIGHT AS A WARM FRONT
AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE APPROACH. THE WARM FRONT WILL BE IN THE
VICINITY BY 00Z MONDAY. LIGHT SNOW COULD BE DEVELOPING BY LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...STEADY SNOW IS EXPECTED 00Z TO 02Z  MONDAY
ACROSS THE NYC AREA TERMINALS WITH CONDITIONS LOWERING TO IFR. THE
SNOW SPREADS EAST...REACHING EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND KGON AROUND
04Z.

WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND UNDER 10 KT...WILL BACK TO SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH DURING SUNDAY...BECOMING EAST SOUTHEAST SUNDAY EVENING...AND
INCREASING TO 10 KT TO 15 KT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.LATE SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW. A WINTRY MIX OF
SLEET...SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN BECOMES LIKELY EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AT THE NYC METRO TERMINALS AND ACROSS LONG ISLAND. THE WINTRY MIX
PUSHES FARTHER NORTH DURING MONDAY MORNING AND CONTINUES INTO THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE GOING BACK TO ALL SNOW BEFORE ENDING MONDAY EVENING.
.MONDAY NIGHT...BECOMING VFR AS SNOW COMES TO AN END. N-NW WIND 15
TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT.
.TUESDAY...VFR.
.WEDNESDAY...VFR. A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOCALLY MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS.
.THURSDAY...VFR. NW GUSTS 20 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONTINUES ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS WITH A GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING NW FLOW. 5 FT SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT.

TRANQUIL CONDS ON THE WATERS SUN AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVERHEAD AND
DEPARTS. CONDS RAMP UP TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE. A FEW
GALE GUSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A MARGINAL GALE EVENT MON NIGHT ON THE
BACKSIDE OF DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE LIFTING UP INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. WINDS AND SEAS ARE THEN FORECAST TO SUBSIDE BELOW SCA
LEVELS ON TUE WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE WATERS.
MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN WATERS WED IN A
PRE-FRONTAL SW FLOW...AND THEN IN THE NW POST-FRONTAL FLOW ON THU.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GENERALLY 1 TO 1 1/2 INCHES OF LIQUID FORECAST WITH THE SYSTEM
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. MOST OF THIS WILL BE SNOW AND SLEET
ACROSS NE NJ...LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND CT.

ACROSS LI/NYC THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF HEAVY
RAIN...WITH SOME MODELS SIGNALING UP TO 2 INCHES OF QPF.
ALTHOUGH THIS POTENTIAL IS LOW...IF MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE
NORTH...THIS POTENTIAL WOULD INCREASE...RESULTING IN URBAN
FLOODING ISSUES.

NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PCPN IS FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING THRESHOLDS
BEING REACHED WITH THE MONDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLE ALONG THE
WESTERN SOUTH SHORE BAYS AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF LI SOUND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR CTZ011-012.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR CTZ005>010.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR NYZ071>075-078>081-176>179.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR NYZ067>070.
NJ...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR NJZ004-006-104>108.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR NJZ002-103.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NV/DW
NEAR TERM...JP/NV/DW/PW
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JP/NV/DW/PW
HYDROLOGY...NV/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







000
FXUS61 KOKX 010539
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1239 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TONIGHT...BEFORE A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND CROSSES ON SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY AND PASSES JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND MONDAY. THE
LOW TRACKS WELL TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN ITS PLACE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL LARGELY PREVAIL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
LATE WEDNESDAY. A DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE GULF COAST STATES LATE
IN THE WEEK LOOKS TO TAKE A TRACK WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
MINOR CHANGES MADE TO REFLECT CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...OTHERWISE
FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM
THE WEST. A POLAR FRONT CONTINUES TO APPROACH FROM THE GREAT
LAKES.

WINDS AND GUSTS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE. CLOUDS ARE INCREASING FROM THE
NW PER SATELLITE.

TEMPS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS COLD WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
TEENS...EXCEPT 20S NYC/NJ METRO...WITH NEUTRAL TEMP ADVECTION AND
LIMITED OPPORTUNITY FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. COULD SEE SOME SINGLE
DIGITS IN PINE BARRENS AND INTERIOR TRI-STATE WITH DECOUPLING
BEFORE CLOUDS MOVE IN.

PHASING NORTHERN STREAM AND SW US SHORTWAVE ENERGY BEGINS TO DIG
INTO THE CENTRAL US ON SUNDAY WITH GENERALLY WSW UPPER FLOW.

A WEAKENING POLAR FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION ON SUNDAY...BUT
OTHERWISE INCREASING AND LOWERING CLOUDS AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING
STORM SYSTEM. A FEW SNOW FLAKES MAY BE OBSERVED OVER NJ VERY LATE IN
THE DAY. TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
MAIN STORY WILL BE NEXT IN A SERIES OF WINTER STORMS AFFECTING THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH LOW PRESSURE TAKING SHAPE
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN TONIGHT...TRACKING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON
SUNDAY AND THEN JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. OVERALL
TREND HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH AND WETTER WITH THIS SYSTEM.

BASED ON COUPLED JET STRUCTURE...TIGHT LOW /MID-LEVEL THERMAL
STRUCTURE...AND GULF MOISTURE FEED OF 2-3 STD PWATS...CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH IN AT LEAST A 3/4 TO 1 1/2 INCH QPF EVENT FOR THE ENTIRE
AREA. THIS IS BORNE OUT IN SREF/GEFS/CMCE 1 INCH/24 HR QPF PROBS.

SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY LIES IN P-TYPE...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE
COAST...WITH A SPREAD OF ABOUT 50 MILES BETWEEN OPERATIONAL
SOLUTIONS AND ENSEMBLE MEANS IN HOW CLOSE TO THE COAST THE LOW
GETS AND THE POSITION OF THE TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION. SBU ENSEMBLE SENSITIVITY SHOWING THIS N/S TRACK UNCERTAINTY
IN THE 00Z GEFS/CMCE/ECMWF ENSEMBLES...WITH SENSITIVITY LYING IN
DEGREE OF PHASING/INTERACTION BETWEEN NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DROPPING DOWN THROUGH MONTANA AND THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW OVER
THE SW US...AND RESULTANT STRENGTH OF TROUGH APPROACHING THE EAST
COAST SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AND UPSTREAM RIDGING. A STRONGER
TROUGH...MEANING MORE UPSTREAM RIDGING...AND A FURTHER NORTH
TRACK. THIS INTERACTION IS NOT COMPLETE FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS...SO
COULD TAKE UNTIL THEN FOR CONFIDENCE IN P-TYPE FORECAST INCREASES.

WITH CONFLUENT FLOW ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND/SE CANADA...ARCTIC
HIGH SHOULD BE LOCKED INTO THAT AREA. PREFER TIGHTER THERMAL
STRUCTURE ALOFT OF NAM/ECMWF/CAN VERSUS MORE DIFFUSE THERMAL
STRUCTURE OF GFS IN THIS SITUATION...BUT QUESTION IS LOCATION OF
THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE. MODEL SOLUTIONS POINTING TO DIFFERING
DEGREES OF WARMING IN THE 800-950 LAYER MON MORNING INTO EARLY
AFT...BUT TREND IS TOWARDS MORE WARMING.

WITH THIS SAID...NORTHWEST TIER OF THE TRI-STATE LOOKS TO BE
MAINLY SNOW. BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE IS FOR COAST...ESPECIALLY
NYC/NJ/LI...IN AMOUNT OF SLEET/FZRA/RA VERSUS SNOW. 12Z GFS/GEFS
ARE FURTHER NORTH WITH LOW TRACK...JUST SOUTH OF LI MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH WOULD IMPLY MORE IN THE WAY OF WARMING
ALOFT...AND MORE IN WAY MIXING WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN AND
EVEN RAIN FOR LI/NYC. 12Z GEM HAS TRENDED IN THAT DIRECTION AS
WELL. 12Z NAM...WOULD POINT TO MAINLY SNOW FOR CT AND LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY...WITH A MIX OF SIGNIFICANT SNOW/SLEET ACCUM FOR
NYC/LI/METRO NJ. 00Z ECMWF...IS SIMILARLY COLDER AND A BIT FARTHER
SOUTH AS WITH THE NAM. HAVE TAKEN A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD SOLUTION
BASED ON THE UNCERTAINTY...WITH A SLIGHTLY WETTER AND WARMER
FORECAST.

EVEN WITH CONTINUED NORTHWARD TREND...HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN
SIGNIFICANT SNOW/SLEET/ICE ACROSS INTERIOR NE NJ...AND MOST OF THE
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND CT. HAVE UPGRADED TO WARNING THERE FOR 5
TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW/SLEET AND UP TO 1/4 INCH OF ICE. INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND SW CT...MORE IN THE 8 TO 14
INCH RANGE WITH LESS ICE/SLEET.

EVEN FOR NYC/NJ METRO AND LI...COULD SEE A QUICK 3 TO 5 INCH
SNOWFALL ON THE FRONT END WITH SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE AND STRONG
LIFT LATE SUN NIGHT/EARLY MON MORNING BEFORE ANY MIXING. AFTER
CHANGEOVER...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF FZRA/SLEET (1/4 INCH OF ICE)
POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN HALF OF LI/NYC AND NE NJ...WITH COLD AIR
DRAINAGE DOWN THE RIVER VALLEYS. HAVE MAINTAINED A WATCH HERE WITH
UNCERTAINTY IF WE CHANGEOVER TO MORE RAIN...PARTICULARLY FOR SOUTH
COASTAL AREAS. THE ONE ASPECT TO KEEP IN MIND IS IF COASTAL AREAS
DO GO OVER TO RAIN...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR URBAN FLOODING ISSUES.
SEE HYDROLOGY SECTION FOR MORE INFO.

ANY RAIN/MIXED PRECIP SHOULD GRADUALLY CHANGE BACK TO SNOW FROM NW
TO SE MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVE. EVEN SOME SIGNAL OF DEFORMATION BANDING
ON THE BACKSIDE...WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW BACK DOWN TO THE COAST.
WITH COLD AIR CRASHING BACK DOWN TO THE COAST...POTENTIAL FOR
FLASH FREEZE CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY EVENING COMMUTE FOR CITY/COAST
IN WAKE OF A WASHING RAIN. SO TO SAY THE LEAST...A COMPLICATED
FORECAST FOR THE NYC/NJ METRO AND LONG ISLAND...WHICH COULD STILL
SEE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EVEN IF IT IS NOT ALL FROZEN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A BROAD UPPER TROF WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK
FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES OF WESTERN CANADA SE INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION. THIS WILL KEEP A STEADY STREAM OF POLAR AIR
MASSES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WITH GENERALLY UNSEASONABLY COLD
CONDITIONS. THIS SEASON HAS BEEN TYPIFIED BY THIS FLOW REGIME WITH
NO BLOCK OVER GREENLAND. OCCASIONALLY...A STRONG SHORT WAVE BRIEFLY
AMPLIFIES THE FLOW...BUT REMAINS PROGRESSIVE.

THE ONLY CHANCE FOR PCPN LOOKS TO BE WITH A POLAR COLD FRONT WED
INTO WED NIGHT...WHICH WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SCT SNOW SNOW SHOWERS.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED WELL SOUTH AND EAST WITH A LATE WEEK COASTAL LOW
MOVING OUT OF THE GULF COAST STATES. THUS...HAVE TRENDED DOWN TO THE
POINT WHERE THERE IS NO MENTION OF PCPN LATE IN THE WEEK.
INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH THOUGH...MODELS HAVE BEEN WAVERING BACK AND
FORTH WITH THESE SYSTEMS...SO PERHAPS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE
WOODS.

THE ONLY DAY OF THE WEEK THAT LOOKS TO BE NEAR NORMAL WITH RESPECT
TO TEMPS IS WED AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
   **HIGH IMPACT EVENT SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY**

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TERMINALS WEAKENS OVERNIGHT AS A WARM FRONT
AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE APPROACH. THE WARM FRONT WILL BE IN THE
VICINITY BY 00Z MONDAY. LIGHT SNOW COULD BE DEVELOPING BY LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...STEADY SNOW IS EXPECTED 00Z TO 02Z  MONDAY
ACROSS THE NYC AREA TERMINALS WITH CONDITIONS LOWERING TO IFR. THE
SNOW SPREADS EAST...REACHING EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND KGON AROUND
04Z.

WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND UNDER 10 KT...WILL BACK TO SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH DURING SUNDAY...BECOMING EAST SOUTHEAST SUNDAY EVENING...AND
INCREASING TO 10 KT TO 15 KT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.LATE SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW. A WINTRY MIX OF
SLEET...SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN BECOMES LIKELY EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AT THE NYC METRO TERMINALS AND ACROSS LONG ISLAND. THE WINTRY MIX
PUSHES FARTHER NORTH DURING MONDAY MORNING AND CONTINUES INTO THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE GOING BACK TO ALL SNOW BEFORE ENDING MONDAY EVENING.
.MONDAY NIGHT...BECOMING VFR AS SNOW COMES TO AN END. N-NW WIND 15
TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT.
.TUESDAY...VFR.
.WEDNESDAY...VFR. A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOCALLY MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS.
.THURSDAY...VFR. NW GUSTS 20 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONTINUES ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS WITH A GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING NW FLOW. 5 FT SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT.

TRANQUIL CONDS ON THE WATERS SUN AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVERHEAD AND
DEPARTS. CONDS RAMP UP TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE. A FEW
GALE GUSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A MARGINAL GALE EVENT MON NIGHT ON THE
BACKSIDE OF DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE LIFTING UP INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. WINDS AND SEAS ARE THEN FORECAST TO SUBSIDE BELOW SCA
LEVELS ON TUE WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE WATERS.
MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN WATERS WED IN A
PRE-FRONTAL SW FLOW...AND THEN IN THE NW POST-FRONTAL FLOW ON THU.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GENERALLY 1 TO 1 1/2 INCHES OF LIQUID FORECAST WITH THE SYSTEM
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. MOST OF THIS WILL BE SNOW AND SLEET
ACROSS NE NJ...LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND CT.

ACROSS LI/NYC THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF HEAVY
RAIN...WITH SOME MODELS SIGNALING UP TO 2 INCHES OF QPF.
ALTHOUGH THIS POTENTIAL IS LOW...IF MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE
NORTH...THIS POTENTIAL WOULD INCREASE...RESULTING IN URBAN
FLOODING ISSUES.

NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PCPN IS FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING THRESHOLDS
BEING REACHED WITH THE MONDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLE ALONG THE
WESTERN SOUTH SHORE BAYS AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF LI SOUND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR CTZ011-012.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR CTZ005>010.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR NYZ071>075-078>081-176>179.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR NYZ067>070.
NJ...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR NJZ004-006-104>108.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR NJZ002-103.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NV/DW
NEAR TERM...JP/NV/DW/PW
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JP/NV/DW/PW
HYDROLOGY...NV/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







000
FXUS61 KOKX 010539
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1239 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TONIGHT...BEFORE A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND CROSSES ON SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY AND PASSES JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND MONDAY. THE
LOW TRACKS WELL TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN ITS PLACE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL LARGELY PREVAIL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
LATE WEDNESDAY. A DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE GULF COAST STATES LATE
IN THE WEEK LOOKS TO TAKE A TRACK WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
MINOR CHANGES MADE TO REFLECT CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...OTHERWISE
FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM
THE WEST. A POLAR FRONT CONTINUES TO APPROACH FROM THE GREAT
LAKES.

WINDS AND GUSTS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE. CLOUDS ARE INCREASING FROM THE
NW PER SATELLITE.

TEMPS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS COLD WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
TEENS...EXCEPT 20S NYC/NJ METRO...WITH NEUTRAL TEMP ADVECTION AND
LIMITED OPPORTUNITY FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. COULD SEE SOME SINGLE
DIGITS IN PINE BARRENS AND INTERIOR TRI-STATE WITH DECOUPLING
BEFORE CLOUDS MOVE IN.

PHASING NORTHERN STREAM AND SW US SHORTWAVE ENERGY BEGINS TO DIG
INTO THE CENTRAL US ON SUNDAY WITH GENERALLY WSW UPPER FLOW.

A WEAKENING POLAR FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION ON SUNDAY...BUT
OTHERWISE INCREASING AND LOWERING CLOUDS AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING
STORM SYSTEM. A FEW SNOW FLAKES MAY BE OBSERVED OVER NJ VERY LATE IN
THE DAY. TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
MAIN STORY WILL BE NEXT IN A SERIES OF WINTER STORMS AFFECTING THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH LOW PRESSURE TAKING SHAPE
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN TONIGHT...TRACKING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON
SUNDAY AND THEN JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. OVERALL
TREND HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH AND WETTER WITH THIS SYSTEM.

BASED ON COUPLED JET STRUCTURE...TIGHT LOW /MID-LEVEL THERMAL
STRUCTURE...AND GULF MOISTURE FEED OF 2-3 STD PWATS...CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH IN AT LEAST A 3/4 TO 1 1/2 INCH QPF EVENT FOR THE ENTIRE
AREA. THIS IS BORNE OUT IN SREF/GEFS/CMCE 1 INCH/24 HR QPF PROBS.

SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY LIES IN P-TYPE...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE
COAST...WITH A SPREAD OF ABOUT 50 MILES BETWEEN OPERATIONAL
SOLUTIONS AND ENSEMBLE MEANS IN HOW CLOSE TO THE COAST THE LOW
GETS AND THE POSITION OF THE TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION. SBU ENSEMBLE SENSITIVITY SHOWING THIS N/S TRACK UNCERTAINTY
IN THE 00Z GEFS/CMCE/ECMWF ENSEMBLES...WITH SENSITIVITY LYING IN
DEGREE OF PHASING/INTERACTION BETWEEN NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DROPPING DOWN THROUGH MONTANA AND THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW OVER
THE SW US...AND RESULTANT STRENGTH OF TROUGH APPROACHING THE EAST
COAST SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AND UPSTREAM RIDGING. A STRONGER
TROUGH...MEANING MORE UPSTREAM RIDGING...AND A FURTHER NORTH
TRACK. THIS INTERACTION IS NOT COMPLETE FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS...SO
COULD TAKE UNTIL THEN FOR CONFIDENCE IN P-TYPE FORECAST INCREASES.

WITH CONFLUENT FLOW ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND/SE CANADA...ARCTIC
HIGH SHOULD BE LOCKED INTO THAT AREA. PREFER TIGHTER THERMAL
STRUCTURE ALOFT OF NAM/ECMWF/CAN VERSUS MORE DIFFUSE THERMAL
STRUCTURE OF GFS IN THIS SITUATION...BUT QUESTION IS LOCATION OF
THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE. MODEL SOLUTIONS POINTING TO DIFFERING
DEGREES OF WARMING IN THE 800-950 LAYER MON MORNING INTO EARLY
AFT...BUT TREND IS TOWARDS MORE WARMING.

WITH THIS SAID...NORTHWEST TIER OF THE TRI-STATE LOOKS TO BE
MAINLY SNOW. BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE IS FOR COAST...ESPECIALLY
NYC/NJ/LI...IN AMOUNT OF SLEET/FZRA/RA VERSUS SNOW. 12Z GFS/GEFS
ARE FURTHER NORTH WITH LOW TRACK...JUST SOUTH OF LI MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH WOULD IMPLY MORE IN THE WAY OF WARMING
ALOFT...AND MORE IN WAY MIXING WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN AND
EVEN RAIN FOR LI/NYC. 12Z GEM HAS TRENDED IN THAT DIRECTION AS
WELL. 12Z NAM...WOULD POINT TO MAINLY SNOW FOR CT AND LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY...WITH A MIX OF SIGNIFICANT SNOW/SLEET ACCUM FOR
NYC/LI/METRO NJ. 00Z ECMWF...IS SIMILARLY COLDER AND A BIT FARTHER
SOUTH AS WITH THE NAM. HAVE TAKEN A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD SOLUTION
BASED ON THE UNCERTAINTY...WITH A SLIGHTLY WETTER AND WARMER
FORECAST.

EVEN WITH CONTINUED NORTHWARD TREND...HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN
SIGNIFICANT SNOW/SLEET/ICE ACROSS INTERIOR NE NJ...AND MOST OF THE
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND CT. HAVE UPGRADED TO WARNING THERE FOR 5
TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW/SLEET AND UP TO 1/4 INCH OF ICE. INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND SW CT...MORE IN THE 8 TO 14
INCH RANGE WITH LESS ICE/SLEET.

EVEN FOR NYC/NJ METRO AND LI...COULD SEE A QUICK 3 TO 5 INCH
SNOWFALL ON THE FRONT END WITH SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE AND STRONG
LIFT LATE SUN NIGHT/EARLY MON MORNING BEFORE ANY MIXING. AFTER
CHANGEOVER...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF FZRA/SLEET (1/4 INCH OF ICE)
POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN HALF OF LI/NYC AND NE NJ...WITH COLD AIR
DRAINAGE DOWN THE RIVER VALLEYS. HAVE MAINTAINED A WATCH HERE WITH
UNCERTAINTY IF WE CHANGEOVER TO MORE RAIN...PARTICULARLY FOR SOUTH
COASTAL AREAS. THE ONE ASPECT TO KEEP IN MIND IS IF COASTAL AREAS
DO GO OVER TO RAIN...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR URBAN FLOODING ISSUES.
SEE HYDROLOGY SECTION FOR MORE INFO.

ANY RAIN/MIXED PRECIP SHOULD GRADUALLY CHANGE BACK TO SNOW FROM NW
TO SE MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVE. EVEN SOME SIGNAL OF DEFORMATION BANDING
ON THE BACKSIDE...WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW BACK DOWN TO THE COAST.
WITH COLD AIR CRASHING BACK DOWN TO THE COAST...POTENTIAL FOR
FLASH FREEZE CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY EVENING COMMUTE FOR CITY/COAST
IN WAKE OF A WASHING RAIN. SO TO SAY THE LEAST...A COMPLICATED
FORECAST FOR THE NYC/NJ METRO AND LONG ISLAND...WHICH COULD STILL
SEE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EVEN IF IT IS NOT ALL FROZEN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A BROAD UPPER TROF WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK
FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES OF WESTERN CANADA SE INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION. THIS WILL KEEP A STEADY STREAM OF POLAR AIR
MASSES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WITH GENERALLY UNSEASONABLY COLD
CONDITIONS. THIS SEASON HAS BEEN TYPIFIED BY THIS FLOW REGIME WITH
NO BLOCK OVER GREENLAND. OCCASIONALLY...A STRONG SHORT WAVE BRIEFLY
AMPLIFIES THE FLOW...BUT REMAINS PROGRESSIVE.

THE ONLY CHANCE FOR PCPN LOOKS TO BE WITH A POLAR COLD FRONT WED
INTO WED NIGHT...WHICH WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SCT SNOW SNOW SHOWERS.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED WELL SOUTH AND EAST WITH A LATE WEEK COASTAL LOW
MOVING OUT OF THE GULF COAST STATES. THUS...HAVE TRENDED DOWN TO THE
POINT WHERE THERE IS NO MENTION OF PCPN LATE IN THE WEEK.
INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH THOUGH...MODELS HAVE BEEN WAVERING BACK AND
FORTH WITH THESE SYSTEMS...SO PERHAPS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE
WOODS.

THE ONLY DAY OF THE WEEK THAT LOOKS TO BE NEAR NORMAL WITH RESPECT
TO TEMPS IS WED AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
   **HIGH IMPACT EVENT SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY**

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TERMINALS WEAKENS OVERNIGHT AS A WARM FRONT
AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE APPROACH. THE WARM FRONT WILL BE IN THE
VICINITY BY 00Z MONDAY. LIGHT SNOW COULD BE DEVELOPING BY LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...STEADY SNOW IS EXPECTED 00Z TO 02Z  MONDAY
ACROSS THE NYC AREA TERMINALS WITH CONDITIONS LOWERING TO IFR. THE
SNOW SPREADS EAST...REACHING EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND KGON AROUND
04Z.

WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND UNDER 10 KT...WILL BACK TO SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH DURING SUNDAY...BECOMING EAST SOUTHEAST SUNDAY EVENING...AND
INCREASING TO 10 KT TO 15 KT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.LATE SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW. A WINTRY MIX OF
SLEET...SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN BECOMES LIKELY EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AT THE NYC METRO TERMINALS AND ACROSS LONG ISLAND. THE WINTRY MIX
PUSHES FARTHER NORTH DURING MONDAY MORNING AND CONTINUES INTO THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE GOING BACK TO ALL SNOW BEFORE ENDING MONDAY EVENING.
.MONDAY NIGHT...BECOMING VFR AS SNOW COMES TO AN END. N-NW WIND 15
TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT.
.TUESDAY...VFR.
.WEDNESDAY...VFR. A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOCALLY MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS.
.THURSDAY...VFR. NW GUSTS 20 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONTINUES ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS WITH A GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING NW FLOW. 5 FT SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT.

TRANQUIL CONDS ON THE WATERS SUN AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVERHEAD AND
DEPARTS. CONDS RAMP UP TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE. A FEW
GALE GUSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A MARGINAL GALE EVENT MON NIGHT ON THE
BACKSIDE OF DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE LIFTING UP INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. WINDS AND SEAS ARE THEN FORECAST TO SUBSIDE BELOW SCA
LEVELS ON TUE WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE WATERS.
MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN WATERS WED IN A
PRE-FRONTAL SW FLOW...AND THEN IN THE NW POST-FRONTAL FLOW ON THU.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GENERALLY 1 TO 1 1/2 INCHES OF LIQUID FORECAST WITH THE SYSTEM
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. MOST OF THIS WILL BE SNOW AND SLEET
ACROSS NE NJ...LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND CT.

ACROSS LI/NYC THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF HEAVY
RAIN...WITH SOME MODELS SIGNALING UP TO 2 INCHES OF QPF.
ALTHOUGH THIS POTENTIAL IS LOW...IF MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE
NORTH...THIS POTENTIAL WOULD INCREASE...RESULTING IN URBAN
FLOODING ISSUES.

NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PCPN IS FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING THRESHOLDS
BEING REACHED WITH THE MONDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLE ALONG THE
WESTERN SOUTH SHORE BAYS AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF LI SOUND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR CTZ011-012.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR CTZ005>010.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR NYZ071>075-078>081-176>179.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR NYZ067>070.
NJ...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR NJZ004-006-104>108.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR NJZ002-103.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NV/DW
NEAR TERM...JP/NV/DW/PW
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JP/NV/DW/PW
HYDROLOGY...NV/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







000
FXUS61 KOKX 010539
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1239 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TONIGHT...BEFORE A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND CROSSES ON SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY AND PASSES JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND MONDAY. THE
LOW TRACKS WELL TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN ITS PLACE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL LARGELY PREVAIL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
LATE WEDNESDAY. A DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE GULF COAST STATES LATE
IN THE WEEK LOOKS TO TAKE A TRACK WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
MINOR CHANGES MADE TO REFLECT CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...OTHERWISE
FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM
THE WEST. A POLAR FRONT CONTINUES TO APPROACH FROM THE GREAT
LAKES.

WINDS AND GUSTS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE. CLOUDS ARE INCREASING FROM THE
NW PER SATELLITE.

TEMPS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS COLD WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
TEENS...EXCEPT 20S NYC/NJ METRO...WITH NEUTRAL TEMP ADVECTION AND
LIMITED OPPORTUNITY FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. COULD SEE SOME SINGLE
DIGITS IN PINE BARRENS AND INTERIOR TRI-STATE WITH DECOUPLING
BEFORE CLOUDS MOVE IN.

PHASING NORTHERN STREAM AND SW US SHORTWAVE ENERGY BEGINS TO DIG
INTO THE CENTRAL US ON SUNDAY WITH GENERALLY WSW UPPER FLOW.

A WEAKENING POLAR FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION ON SUNDAY...BUT
OTHERWISE INCREASING AND LOWERING CLOUDS AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING
STORM SYSTEM. A FEW SNOW FLAKES MAY BE OBSERVED OVER NJ VERY LATE IN
THE DAY. TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
MAIN STORY WILL BE NEXT IN A SERIES OF WINTER STORMS AFFECTING THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH LOW PRESSURE TAKING SHAPE
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN TONIGHT...TRACKING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON
SUNDAY AND THEN JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. OVERALL
TREND HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH AND WETTER WITH THIS SYSTEM.

BASED ON COUPLED JET STRUCTURE...TIGHT LOW /MID-LEVEL THERMAL
STRUCTURE...AND GULF MOISTURE FEED OF 2-3 STD PWATS...CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH IN AT LEAST A 3/4 TO 1 1/2 INCH QPF EVENT FOR THE ENTIRE
AREA. THIS IS BORNE OUT IN SREF/GEFS/CMCE 1 INCH/24 HR QPF PROBS.

SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY LIES IN P-TYPE...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE
COAST...WITH A SPREAD OF ABOUT 50 MILES BETWEEN OPERATIONAL
SOLUTIONS AND ENSEMBLE MEANS IN HOW CLOSE TO THE COAST THE LOW
GETS AND THE POSITION OF THE TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION. SBU ENSEMBLE SENSITIVITY SHOWING THIS N/S TRACK UNCERTAINTY
IN THE 00Z GEFS/CMCE/ECMWF ENSEMBLES...WITH SENSITIVITY LYING IN
DEGREE OF PHASING/INTERACTION BETWEEN NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DROPPING DOWN THROUGH MONTANA AND THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW OVER
THE SW US...AND RESULTANT STRENGTH OF TROUGH APPROACHING THE EAST
COAST SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AND UPSTREAM RIDGING. A STRONGER
TROUGH...MEANING MORE UPSTREAM RIDGING...AND A FURTHER NORTH
TRACK. THIS INTERACTION IS NOT COMPLETE FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS...SO
COULD TAKE UNTIL THEN FOR CONFIDENCE IN P-TYPE FORECAST INCREASES.

WITH CONFLUENT FLOW ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND/SE CANADA...ARCTIC
HIGH SHOULD BE LOCKED INTO THAT AREA. PREFER TIGHTER THERMAL
STRUCTURE ALOFT OF NAM/ECMWF/CAN VERSUS MORE DIFFUSE THERMAL
STRUCTURE OF GFS IN THIS SITUATION...BUT QUESTION IS LOCATION OF
THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE. MODEL SOLUTIONS POINTING TO DIFFERING
DEGREES OF WARMING IN THE 800-950 LAYER MON MORNING INTO EARLY
AFT...BUT TREND IS TOWARDS MORE WARMING.

WITH THIS SAID...NORTHWEST TIER OF THE TRI-STATE LOOKS TO BE
MAINLY SNOW. BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE IS FOR COAST...ESPECIALLY
NYC/NJ/LI...IN AMOUNT OF SLEET/FZRA/RA VERSUS SNOW. 12Z GFS/GEFS
ARE FURTHER NORTH WITH LOW TRACK...JUST SOUTH OF LI MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH WOULD IMPLY MORE IN THE WAY OF WARMING
ALOFT...AND MORE IN WAY MIXING WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN AND
EVEN RAIN FOR LI/NYC. 12Z GEM HAS TRENDED IN THAT DIRECTION AS
WELL. 12Z NAM...WOULD POINT TO MAINLY SNOW FOR CT AND LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY...WITH A MIX OF SIGNIFICANT SNOW/SLEET ACCUM FOR
NYC/LI/METRO NJ. 00Z ECMWF...IS SIMILARLY COLDER AND A BIT FARTHER
SOUTH AS WITH THE NAM. HAVE TAKEN A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD SOLUTION
BASED ON THE UNCERTAINTY...WITH A SLIGHTLY WETTER AND WARMER
FORECAST.

EVEN WITH CONTINUED NORTHWARD TREND...HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN
SIGNIFICANT SNOW/SLEET/ICE ACROSS INTERIOR NE NJ...AND MOST OF THE
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND CT. HAVE UPGRADED TO WARNING THERE FOR 5
TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW/SLEET AND UP TO 1/4 INCH OF ICE. INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND SW CT...MORE IN THE 8 TO 14
INCH RANGE WITH LESS ICE/SLEET.

EVEN FOR NYC/NJ METRO AND LI...COULD SEE A QUICK 3 TO 5 INCH
SNOWFALL ON THE FRONT END WITH SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE AND STRONG
LIFT LATE SUN NIGHT/EARLY MON MORNING BEFORE ANY MIXING. AFTER
CHANGEOVER...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF FZRA/SLEET (1/4 INCH OF ICE)
POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN HALF OF LI/NYC AND NE NJ...WITH COLD AIR
DRAINAGE DOWN THE RIVER VALLEYS. HAVE MAINTAINED A WATCH HERE WITH
UNCERTAINTY IF WE CHANGEOVER TO MORE RAIN...PARTICULARLY FOR SOUTH
COASTAL AREAS. THE ONE ASPECT TO KEEP IN MIND IS IF COASTAL AREAS
DO GO OVER TO RAIN...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR URBAN FLOODING ISSUES.
SEE HYDROLOGY SECTION FOR MORE INFO.

ANY RAIN/MIXED PRECIP SHOULD GRADUALLY CHANGE BACK TO SNOW FROM NW
TO SE MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVE. EVEN SOME SIGNAL OF DEFORMATION BANDING
ON THE BACKSIDE...WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW BACK DOWN TO THE COAST.
WITH COLD AIR CRASHING BACK DOWN TO THE COAST...POTENTIAL FOR
FLASH FREEZE CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY EVENING COMMUTE FOR CITY/COAST
IN WAKE OF A WASHING RAIN. SO TO SAY THE LEAST...A COMPLICATED
FORECAST FOR THE NYC/NJ METRO AND LONG ISLAND...WHICH COULD STILL
SEE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EVEN IF IT IS NOT ALL FROZEN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A BROAD UPPER TROF WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK
FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES OF WESTERN CANADA SE INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION. THIS WILL KEEP A STEADY STREAM OF POLAR AIR
MASSES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WITH GENERALLY UNSEASONABLY COLD
CONDITIONS. THIS SEASON HAS BEEN TYPIFIED BY THIS FLOW REGIME WITH
NO BLOCK OVER GREENLAND. OCCASIONALLY...A STRONG SHORT WAVE BRIEFLY
AMPLIFIES THE FLOW...BUT REMAINS PROGRESSIVE.

THE ONLY CHANCE FOR PCPN LOOKS TO BE WITH A POLAR COLD FRONT WED
INTO WED NIGHT...WHICH WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SCT SNOW SNOW SHOWERS.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED WELL SOUTH AND EAST WITH A LATE WEEK COASTAL LOW
MOVING OUT OF THE GULF COAST STATES. THUS...HAVE TRENDED DOWN TO THE
POINT WHERE THERE IS NO MENTION OF PCPN LATE IN THE WEEK.
INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH THOUGH...MODELS HAVE BEEN WAVERING BACK AND
FORTH WITH THESE SYSTEMS...SO PERHAPS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE
WOODS.

THE ONLY DAY OF THE WEEK THAT LOOKS TO BE NEAR NORMAL WITH RESPECT
TO TEMPS IS WED AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
   **HIGH IMPACT EVENT SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY**

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TERMINALS WEAKENS OVERNIGHT AS A WARM FRONT
AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE APPROACH. THE WARM FRONT WILL BE IN THE
VICINITY BY 00Z MONDAY. LIGHT SNOW COULD BE DEVELOPING BY LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...STEADY SNOW IS EXPECTED 00Z TO 02Z  MONDAY
ACROSS THE NYC AREA TERMINALS WITH CONDITIONS LOWERING TO IFR. THE
SNOW SPREADS EAST...REACHING EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND KGON AROUND
04Z.

WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND UNDER 10 KT...WILL BACK TO SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH DURING SUNDAY...BECOMING EAST SOUTHEAST SUNDAY EVENING...AND
INCREASING TO 10 KT TO 15 KT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.LATE SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW. A WINTRY MIX OF
SLEET...SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN BECOMES LIKELY EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AT THE NYC METRO TERMINALS AND ACROSS LONG ISLAND. THE WINTRY MIX
PUSHES FARTHER NORTH DURING MONDAY MORNING AND CONTINUES INTO THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE GOING BACK TO ALL SNOW BEFORE ENDING MONDAY EVENING.
.MONDAY NIGHT...BECOMING VFR AS SNOW COMES TO AN END. N-NW WIND 15
TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT.
.TUESDAY...VFR.
.WEDNESDAY...VFR. A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOCALLY MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS.
.THURSDAY...VFR. NW GUSTS 20 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONTINUES ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS WITH A GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING NW FLOW. 5 FT SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT.

TRANQUIL CONDS ON THE WATERS SUN AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVERHEAD AND
DEPARTS. CONDS RAMP UP TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE. A FEW
GALE GUSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A MARGINAL GALE EVENT MON NIGHT ON THE
BACKSIDE OF DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE LIFTING UP INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. WINDS AND SEAS ARE THEN FORECAST TO SUBSIDE BELOW SCA
LEVELS ON TUE WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE WATERS.
MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN WATERS WED IN A
PRE-FRONTAL SW FLOW...AND THEN IN THE NW POST-FRONTAL FLOW ON THU.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GENERALLY 1 TO 1 1/2 INCHES OF LIQUID FORECAST WITH THE SYSTEM
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. MOST OF THIS WILL BE SNOW AND SLEET
ACROSS NE NJ...LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND CT.

ACROSS LI/NYC THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF HEAVY
RAIN...WITH SOME MODELS SIGNALING UP TO 2 INCHES OF QPF.
ALTHOUGH THIS POTENTIAL IS LOW...IF MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE
NORTH...THIS POTENTIAL WOULD INCREASE...RESULTING IN URBAN
FLOODING ISSUES.

NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PCPN IS FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING THRESHOLDS
BEING REACHED WITH THE MONDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLE ALONG THE
WESTERN SOUTH SHORE BAYS AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF LI SOUND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR CTZ011-012.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR CTZ005>010.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR NYZ071>075-078>081-176>179.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR NYZ067>070.
NJ...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR NJZ004-006-104>108.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR NJZ002-103.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NV/DW
NEAR TERM...JP/NV/DW/PW
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JP/NV/DW/PW
HYDROLOGY...NV/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







000
FXUS61 KOKX 010539
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1239 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TONIGHT...BEFORE A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND CROSSES ON SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY AND PASSES JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND MONDAY. THE
LOW TRACKS WELL TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN ITS PLACE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL LARGELY PREVAIL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
LATE WEDNESDAY. A DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE GULF COAST STATES LATE
IN THE WEEK LOOKS TO TAKE A TRACK WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
MINOR CHANGES MADE TO REFLECT CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...OTHERWISE
FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM
THE WEST. A POLAR FRONT CONTINUES TO APPROACH FROM THE GREAT
LAKES.

WINDS AND GUSTS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE. CLOUDS ARE INCREASING FROM THE
NW PER SATELLITE.

TEMPS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS COLD WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
TEENS...EXCEPT 20S NYC/NJ METRO...WITH NEUTRAL TEMP ADVECTION AND
LIMITED OPPORTUNITY FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. COULD SEE SOME SINGLE
DIGITS IN PINE BARRENS AND INTERIOR TRI-STATE WITH DECOUPLING
BEFORE CLOUDS MOVE IN.

PHASING NORTHERN STREAM AND SW US SHORTWAVE ENERGY BEGINS TO DIG
INTO THE CENTRAL US ON SUNDAY WITH GENERALLY WSW UPPER FLOW.

A WEAKENING POLAR FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION ON SUNDAY...BUT
OTHERWISE INCREASING AND LOWERING CLOUDS AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING
STORM SYSTEM. A FEW SNOW FLAKES MAY BE OBSERVED OVER NJ VERY LATE IN
THE DAY. TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
MAIN STORY WILL BE NEXT IN A SERIES OF WINTER STORMS AFFECTING THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH LOW PRESSURE TAKING SHAPE
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN TONIGHT...TRACKING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON
SUNDAY AND THEN JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. OVERALL
TREND HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH AND WETTER WITH THIS SYSTEM.

BASED ON COUPLED JET STRUCTURE...TIGHT LOW /MID-LEVEL THERMAL
STRUCTURE...AND GULF MOISTURE FEED OF 2-3 STD PWATS...CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH IN AT LEAST A 3/4 TO 1 1/2 INCH QPF EVENT FOR THE ENTIRE
AREA. THIS IS BORNE OUT IN SREF/GEFS/CMCE 1 INCH/24 HR QPF PROBS.

SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY LIES IN P-TYPE...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE
COAST...WITH A SPREAD OF ABOUT 50 MILES BETWEEN OPERATIONAL
SOLUTIONS AND ENSEMBLE MEANS IN HOW CLOSE TO THE COAST THE LOW
GETS AND THE POSITION OF THE TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION. SBU ENSEMBLE SENSITIVITY SHOWING THIS N/S TRACK UNCERTAINTY
IN THE 00Z GEFS/CMCE/ECMWF ENSEMBLES...WITH SENSITIVITY LYING IN
DEGREE OF PHASING/INTERACTION BETWEEN NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DROPPING DOWN THROUGH MONTANA AND THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW OVER
THE SW US...AND RESULTANT STRENGTH OF TROUGH APPROACHING THE EAST
COAST SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AND UPSTREAM RIDGING. A STRONGER
TROUGH...MEANING MORE UPSTREAM RIDGING...AND A FURTHER NORTH
TRACK. THIS INTERACTION IS NOT COMPLETE FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS...SO
COULD TAKE UNTIL THEN FOR CONFIDENCE IN P-TYPE FORECAST INCREASES.

WITH CONFLUENT FLOW ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND/SE CANADA...ARCTIC
HIGH SHOULD BE LOCKED INTO THAT AREA. PREFER TIGHTER THERMAL
STRUCTURE ALOFT OF NAM/ECMWF/CAN VERSUS MORE DIFFUSE THERMAL
STRUCTURE OF GFS IN THIS SITUATION...BUT QUESTION IS LOCATION OF
THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE. MODEL SOLUTIONS POINTING TO DIFFERING
DEGREES OF WARMING IN THE 800-950 LAYER MON MORNING INTO EARLY
AFT...BUT TREND IS TOWARDS MORE WARMING.

WITH THIS SAID...NORTHWEST TIER OF THE TRI-STATE LOOKS TO BE
MAINLY SNOW. BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE IS FOR COAST...ESPECIALLY
NYC/NJ/LI...IN AMOUNT OF SLEET/FZRA/RA VERSUS SNOW. 12Z GFS/GEFS
ARE FURTHER NORTH WITH LOW TRACK...JUST SOUTH OF LI MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH WOULD IMPLY MORE IN THE WAY OF WARMING
ALOFT...AND MORE IN WAY MIXING WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN AND
EVEN RAIN FOR LI/NYC. 12Z GEM HAS TRENDED IN THAT DIRECTION AS
WELL. 12Z NAM...WOULD POINT TO MAINLY SNOW FOR CT AND LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY...WITH A MIX OF SIGNIFICANT SNOW/SLEET ACCUM FOR
NYC/LI/METRO NJ. 00Z ECMWF...IS SIMILARLY COLDER AND A BIT FARTHER
SOUTH AS WITH THE NAM. HAVE TAKEN A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD SOLUTION
BASED ON THE UNCERTAINTY...WITH A SLIGHTLY WETTER AND WARMER
FORECAST.

EVEN WITH CONTINUED NORTHWARD TREND...HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN
SIGNIFICANT SNOW/SLEET/ICE ACROSS INTERIOR NE NJ...AND MOST OF THE
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND CT. HAVE UPGRADED TO WARNING THERE FOR 5
TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW/SLEET AND UP TO 1/4 INCH OF ICE. INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND SW CT...MORE IN THE 8 TO 14
INCH RANGE WITH LESS ICE/SLEET.

EVEN FOR NYC/NJ METRO AND LI...COULD SEE A QUICK 3 TO 5 INCH
SNOWFALL ON THE FRONT END WITH SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE AND STRONG
LIFT LATE SUN NIGHT/EARLY MON MORNING BEFORE ANY MIXING. AFTER
CHANGEOVER...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF FZRA/SLEET (1/4 INCH OF ICE)
POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN HALF OF LI/NYC AND NE NJ...WITH COLD AIR
DRAINAGE DOWN THE RIVER VALLEYS. HAVE MAINTAINED A WATCH HERE WITH
UNCERTAINTY IF WE CHANGEOVER TO MORE RAIN...PARTICULARLY FOR SOUTH
COASTAL AREAS. THE ONE ASPECT TO KEEP IN MIND IS IF COASTAL AREAS
DO GO OVER TO RAIN...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR URBAN FLOODING ISSUES.
SEE HYDROLOGY SECTION FOR MORE INFO.

ANY RAIN/MIXED PRECIP SHOULD GRADUALLY CHANGE BACK TO SNOW FROM NW
TO SE MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVE. EVEN SOME SIGNAL OF DEFORMATION BANDING
ON THE BACKSIDE...WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW BACK DOWN TO THE COAST.
WITH COLD AIR CRASHING BACK DOWN TO THE COAST...POTENTIAL FOR
FLASH FREEZE CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY EVENING COMMUTE FOR CITY/COAST
IN WAKE OF A WASHING RAIN. SO TO SAY THE LEAST...A COMPLICATED
FORECAST FOR THE NYC/NJ METRO AND LONG ISLAND...WHICH COULD STILL
SEE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EVEN IF IT IS NOT ALL FROZEN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A BROAD UPPER TROF WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK
FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES OF WESTERN CANADA SE INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION. THIS WILL KEEP A STEADY STREAM OF POLAR AIR
MASSES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WITH GENERALLY UNSEASONABLY COLD
CONDITIONS. THIS SEASON HAS BEEN TYPIFIED BY THIS FLOW REGIME WITH
NO BLOCK OVER GREENLAND. OCCASIONALLY...A STRONG SHORT WAVE BRIEFLY
AMPLIFIES THE FLOW...BUT REMAINS PROGRESSIVE.

THE ONLY CHANCE FOR PCPN LOOKS TO BE WITH A POLAR COLD FRONT WED
INTO WED NIGHT...WHICH WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SCT SNOW SNOW SHOWERS.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED WELL SOUTH AND EAST WITH A LATE WEEK COASTAL LOW
MOVING OUT OF THE GULF COAST STATES. THUS...HAVE TRENDED DOWN TO THE
POINT WHERE THERE IS NO MENTION OF PCPN LATE IN THE WEEK.
INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH THOUGH...MODELS HAVE BEEN WAVERING BACK AND
FORTH WITH THESE SYSTEMS...SO PERHAPS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE
WOODS.

THE ONLY DAY OF THE WEEK THAT LOOKS TO BE NEAR NORMAL WITH RESPECT
TO TEMPS IS WED AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
   **HIGH IMPACT EVENT SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY**

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TERMINALS WEAKENS OVERNIGHT AS A WARM FRONT
AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE APPROACH. THE WARM FRONT WILL BE IN THE
VICINITY BY 00Z MONDAY. LIGHT SNOW COULD BE DEVELOPING BY LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...STEADY SNOW IS EXPECTED 00Z TO 02Z  MONDAY
ACROSS THE NYC AREA TERMINALS WITH CONDITIONS LOWERING TO IFR. THE
SNOW SPREADS EAST...REACHING EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND KGON AROUND
04Z.

WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND UNDER 10 KT...WILL BACK TO SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH DURING SUNDAY...BECOMING EAST SOUTHEAST SUNDAY EVENING...AND
INCREASING TO 10 KT TO 15 KT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.LATE SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW. A WINTRY MIX OF
SLEET...SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN BECOMES LIKELY EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AT THE NYC METRO TERMINALS AND ACROSS LONG ISLAND. THE WINTRY MIX
PUSHES FARTHER NORTH DURING MONDAY MORNING AND CONTINUES INTO THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE GOING BACK TO ALL SNOW BEFORE ENDING MONDAY EVENING.
.MONDAY NIGHT...BECOMING VFR AS SNOW COMES TO AN END. N-NW WIND 15
TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT.
.TUESDAY...VFR.
.WEDNESDAY...VFR. A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOCALLY MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS.
.THURSDAY...VFR. NW GUSTS 20 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONTINUES ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS WITH A GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING NW FLOW. 5 FT SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT.

TRANQUIL CONDS ON THE WATERS SUN AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVERHEAD AND
DEPARTS. CONDS RAMP UP TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE. A FEW
GALE GUSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A MARGINAL GALE EVENT MON NIGHT ON THE
BACKSIDE OF DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE LIFTING UP INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. WINDS AND SEAS ARE THEN FORECAST TO SUBSIDE BELOW SCA
LEVELS ON TUE WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE WATERS.
MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN WATERS WED IN A
PRE-FRONTAL SW FLOW...AND THEN IN THE NW POST-FRONTAL FLOW ON THU.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GENERALLY 1 TO 1 1/2 INCHES OF LIQUID FORECAST WITH THE SYSTEM
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. MOST OF THIS WILL BE SNOW AND SLEET
ACROSS NE NJ...LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND CT.

ACROSS LI/NYC THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF HEAVY
RAIN...WITH SOME MODELS SIGNALING UP TO 2 INCHES OF QPF.
ALTHOUGH THIS POTENTIAL IS LOW...IF MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE
NORTH...THIS POTENTIAL WOULD INCREASE...RESULTING IN URBAN
FLOODING ISSUES.

NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PCPN IS FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING THRESHOLDS
BEING REACHED WITH THE MONDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLE ALONG THE
WESTERN SOUTH SHORE BAYS AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF LI SOUND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR CTZ011-012.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR CTZ005>010.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR NYZ071>075-078>081-176>179.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR NYZ067>070.
NJ...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR NJZ004-006-104>108.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR NJZ002-103.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NV/DW
NEAR TERM...JP/NV/DW/PW
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JP/NV/DW/PW
HYDROLOGY...NV/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







000
FXUS61 KOKX 010539
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1239 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TONIGHT...BEFORE A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND CROSSES ON SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY AND PASSES JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND MONDAY. THE
LOW TRACKS WELL TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN ITS PLACE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL LARGELY PREVAIL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
LATE WEDNESDAY. A DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE GULF COAST STATES LATE
IN THE WEEK LOOKS TO TAKE A TRACK WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
MINOR CHANGES MADE TO REFLECT CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...OTHERWISE
FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM
THE WEST. A POLAR FRONT CONTINUES TO APPROACH FROM THE GREAT
LAKES.

WINDS AND GUSTS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE. CLOUDS ARE INCREASING FROM THE
NW PER SATELLITE.

TEMPS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS COLD WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
TEENS...EXCEPT 20S NYC/NJ METRO...WITH NEUTRAL TEMP ADVECTION AND
LIMITED OPPORTUNITY FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. COULD SEE SOME SINGLE
DIGITS IN PINE BARRENS AND INTERIOR TRI-STATE WITH DECOUPLING
BEFORE CLOUDS MOVE IN.

PHASING NORTHERN STREAM AND SW US SHORTWAVE ENERGY BEGINS TO DIG
INTO THE CENTRAL US ON SUNDAY WITH GENERALLY WSW UPPER FLOW.

A WEAKENING POLAR FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION ON SUNDAY...BUT
OTHERWISE INCREASING AND LOWERING CLOUDS AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING
STORM SYSTEM. A FEW SNOW FLAKES MAY BE OBSERVED OVER NJ VERY LATE IN
THE DAY. TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
MAIN STORY WILL BE NEXT IN A SERIES OF WINTER STORMS AFFECTING THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH LOW PRESSURE TAKING SHAPE
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN TONIGHT...TRACKING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON
SUNDAY AND THEN JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. OVERALL
TREND HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH AND WETTER WITH THIS SYSTEM.

BASED ON COUPLED JET STRUCTURE...TIGHT LOW /MID-LEVEL THERMAL
STRUCTURE...AND GULF MOISTURE FEED OF 2-3 STD PWATS...CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH IN AT LEAST A 3/4 TO 1 1/2 INCH QPF EVENT FOR THE ENTIRE
AREA. THIS IS BORNE OUT IN SREF/GEFS/CMCE 1 INCH/24 HR QPF PROBS.

SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY LIES IN P-TYPE...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE
COAST...WITH A SPREAD OF ABOUT 50 MILES BETWEEN OPERATIONAL
SOLUTIONS AND ENSEMBLE MEANS IN HOW CLOSE TO THE COAST THE LOW
GETS AND THE POSITION OF THE TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION. SBU ENSEMBLE SENSITIVITY SHOWING THIS N/S TRACK UNCERTAINTY
IN THE 00Z GEFS/CMCE/ECMWF ENSEMBLES...WITH SENSITIVITY LYING IN
DEGREE OF PHASING/INTERACTION BETWEEN NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DROPPING DOWN THROUGH MONTANA AND THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW OVER
THE SW US...AND RESULTANT STRENGTH OF TROUGH APPROACHING THE EAST
COAST SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AND UPSTREAM RIDGING. A STRONGER
TROUGH...MEANING MORE UPSTREAM RIDGING...AND A FURTHER NORTH
TRACK. THIS INTERACTION IS NOT COMPLETE FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS...SO
COULD TAKE UNTIL THEN FOR CONFIDENCE IN P-TYPE FORECAST INCREASES.

WITH CONFLUENT FLOW ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND/SE CANADA...ARCTIC
HIGH SHOULD BE LOCKED INTO THAT AREA. PREFER TIGHTER THERMAL
STRUCTURE ALOFT OF NAM/ECMWF/CAN VERSUS MORE DIFFUSE THERMAL
STRUCTURE OF GFS IN THIS SITUATION...BUT QUESTION IS LOCATION OF
THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE. MODEL SOLUTIONS POINTING TO DIFFERING
DEGREES OF WARMING IN THE 800-950 LAYER MON MORNING INTO EARLY
AFT...BUT TREND IS TOWARDS MORE WARMING.

WITH THIS SAID...NORTHWEST TIER OF THE TRI-STATE LOOKS TO BE
MAINLY SNOW. BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE IS FOR COAST...ESPECIALLY
NYC/NJ/LI...IN AMOUNT OF SLEET/FZRA/RA VERSUS SNOW. 12Z GFS/GEFS
ARE FURTHER NORTH WITH LOW TRACK...JUST SOUTH OF LI MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH WOULD IMPLY MORE IN THE WAY OF WARMING
ALOFT...AND MORE IN WAY MIXING WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN AND
EVEN RAIN FOR LI/NYC. 12Z GEM HAS TRENDED IN THAT DIRECTION AS
WELL. 12Z NAM...WOULD POINT TO MAINLY SNOW FOR CT AND LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY...WITH A MIX OF SIGNIFICANT SNOW/SLEET ACCUM FOR
NYC/LI/METRO NJ. 00Z ECMWF...IS SIMILARLY COLDER AND A BIT FARTHER
SOUTH AS WITH THE NAM. HAVE TAKEN A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD SOLUTION
BASED ON THE UNCERTAINTY...WITH A SLIGHTLY WETTER AND WARMER
FORECAST.

EVEN WITH CONTINUED NORTHWARD TREND...HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN
SIGNIFICANT SNOW/SLEET/ICE ACROSS INTERIOR NE NJ...AND MOST OF THE
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND CT. HAVE UPGRADED TO WARNING THERE FOR 5
TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW/SLEET AND UP TO 1/4 INCH OF ICE. INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND SW CT...MORE IN THE 8 TO 14
INCH RANGE WITH LESS ICE/SLEET.

EVEN FOR NYC/NJ METRO AND LI...COULD SEE A QUICK 3 TO 5 INCH
SNOWFALL ON THE FRONT END WITH SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE AND STRONG
LIFT LATE SUN NIGHT/EARLY MON MORNING BEFORE ANY MIXING. AFTER
CHANGEOVER...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF FZRA/SLEET (1/4 INCH OF ICE)
POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN HALF OF LI/NYC AND NE NJ...WITH COLD AIR
DRAINAGE DOWN THE RIVER VALLEYS. HAVE MAINTAINED A WATCH HERE WITH
UNCERTAINTY IF WE CHANGEOVER TO MORE RAIN...PARTICULARLY FOR SOUTH
COASTAL AREAS. THE ONE ASPECT TO KEEP IN MIND IS IF COASTAL AREAS
DO GO OVER TO RAIN...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR URBAN FLOODING ISSUES.
SEE HYDROLOGY SECTION FOR MORE INFO.

ANY RAIN/MIXED PRECIP SHOULD GRADUALLY CHANGE BACK TO SNOW FROM NW
TO SE MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVE. EVEN SOME SIGNAL OF DEFORMATION BANDING
ON THE BACKSIDE...WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW BACK DOWN TO THE COAST.
WITH COLD AIR CRASHING BACK DOWN TO THE COAST...POTENTIAL FOR
FLASH FREEZE CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY EVENING COMMUTE FOR CITY/COAST
IN WAKE OF A WASHING RAIN. SO TO SAY THE LEAST...A COMPLICATED
FORECAST FOR THE NYC/NJ METRO AND LONG ISLAND...WHICH COULD STILL
SEE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EVEN IF IT IS NOT ALL FROZEN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A BROAD UPPER TROF WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK
FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES OF WESTERN CANADA SE INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION. THIS WILL KEEP A STEADY STREAM OF POLAR AIR
MASSES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WITH GENERALLY UNSEASONABLY COLD
CONDITIONS. THIS SEASON HAS BEEN TYPIFIED BY THIS FLOW REGIME WITH
NO BLOCK OVER GREENLAND. OCCASIONALLY...A STRONG SHORT WAVE BRIEFLY
AMPLIFIES THE FLOW...BUT REMAINS PROGRESSIVE.

THE ONLY CHANCE FOR PCPN LOOKS TO BE WITH A POLAR COLD FRONT WED
INTO WED NIGHT...WHICH WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SCT SNOW SNOW SHOWERS.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED WELL SOUTH AND EAST WITH A LATE WEEK COASTAL LOW
MOVING OUT OF THE GULF COAST STATES. THUS...HAVE TRENDED DOWN TO THE
POINT WHERE THERE IS NO MENTION OF PCPN LATE IN THE WEEK.
INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH THOUGH...MODELS HAVE BEEN WAVERING BACK AND
FORTH WITH THESE SYSTEMS...SO PERHAPS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE
WOODS.

THE ONLY DAY OF THE WEEK THAT LOOKS TO BE NEAR NORMAL WITH RESPECT
TO TEMPS IS WED AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
   **HIGH IMPACT EVENT SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY**

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TERMINALS WEAKENS OVERNIGHT AS A WARM FRONT
AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE APPROACH. THE WARM FRONT WILL BE IN THE
VICINITY BY 00Z MONDAY. LIGHT SNOW COULD BE DEVELOPING BY LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...STEADY SNOW IS EXPECTED 00Z TO 02Z  MONDAY
ACROSS THE NYC AREA TERMINALS WITH CONDITIONS LOWERING TO IFR. THE
SNOW SPREADS EAST...REACHING EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND KGON AROUND
04Z.

WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND UNDER 10 KT...WILL BACK TO SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH DURING SUNDAY...BECOMING EAST SOUTHEAST SUNDAY EVENING...AND
INCREASING TO 10 KT TO 15 KT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.LATE SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW. A WINTRY MIX OF
SLEET...SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN BECOMES LIKELY EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AT THE NYC METRO TERMINALS AND ACROSS LONG ISLAND. THE WINTRY MIX
PUSHES FARTHER NORTH DURING MONDAY MORNING AND CONTINUES INTO THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE GOING BACK TO ALL SNOW BEFORE ENDING MONDAY EVENING.
.MONDAY NIGHT...BECOMING VFR AS SNOW COMES TO AN END. N-NW WIND 15
TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT.
.TUESDAY...VFR.
.WEDNESDAY...VFR. A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOCALLY MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS.
.THURSDAY...VFR. NW GUSTS 20 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONTINUES ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS WITH A GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING NW FLOW. 5 FT SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT.

TRANQUIL CONDS ON THE WATERS SUN AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVERHEAD AND
DEPARTS. CONDS RAMP UP TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE. A FEW
GALE GUSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A MARGINAL GALE EVENT MON NIGHT ON THE
BACKSIDE OF DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE LIFTING UP INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. WINDS AND SEAS ARE THEN FORECAST TO SUBSIDE BELOW SCA
LEVELS ON TUE WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE WATERS.
MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN WATERS WED IN A
PRE-FRONTAL SW FLOW...AND THEN IN THE NW POST-FRONTAL FLOW ON THU.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GENERALLY 1 TO 1 1/2 INCHES OF LIQUID FORECAST WITH THE SYSTEM
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. MOST OF THIS WILL BE SNOW AND SLEET
ACROSS NE NJ...LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND CT.

ACROSS LI/NYC THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF HEAVY
RAIN...WITH SOME MODELS SIGNALING UP TO 2 INCHES OF QPF.
ALTHOUGH THIS POTENTIAL IS LOW...IF MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE
NORTH...THIS POTENTIAL WOULD INCREASE...RESULTING IN URBAN
FLOODING ISSUES.

NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PCPN IS FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING THRESHOLDS
BEING REACHED WITH THE MONDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLE ALONG THE
WESTERN SOUTH SHORE BAYS AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF LI SOUND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR CTZ011-012.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR CTZ005>010.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR NYZ071>075-078>081-176>179.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR NYZ067>070.
NJ...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR NJZ004-006-104>108.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR NJZ002-103.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NV/DW
NEAR TERM...JP/NV/DW/PW
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JP/NV/DW/PW
HYDROLOGY...NV/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...






000
FXUS61 KALY 010533
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1233 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE ARCTIC HIGH ACROSS THE REGION WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. IT
WILL NOT BE AS COLD...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE BELOW
NORMAL. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO THE AREA. THE
HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1145 PM EST...CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY ADVANCING EASTWARD ACROSS
THE FA. THESE CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS BOUNDARY
WILL BE CROSSING OUR AREA OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH LITTLE MOISTURE AND
DRY LOW LEVELS...LITTLE PRECIP WILL OCCUR. CANNOT RULE OUT A SNOW
SHOWER OR FLURRY FOR NORTHERN AREAS...OTHERWISE IT WILL BE
DRY...WITH JUST SOME PASSING CLOUDS.

IN AREAS THAT ARE STILL CLEAR...TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS THANKS TO DIMINISHING WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES.
HOWEVER...ONCE CLOUDS ARRIVE...TEMPS WILL LEVEL OFF AND POSSIBLY
EVEN RISE A FEW DEGREES. MIN TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS EVERYWHERE...WITH SOME BELOW ZERO READINGS IN THE
ADIRONDACKS AND IN THE GLENS FALLS AREA.

TOMORROW...THE MOISTURE STARVED CLIPPER AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION.  THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL STALL NEAR THE PA/MA BORDER AND CNTRL NJ WESTWARD INTO THE
MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY.  A 1030 HPA OR SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL BUILD IN
FROM SE OF JAMES BAY.  THE SKIES MAY BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY OVER THE
NRN TIER OF THE FCST AREA.  H850 TEMPS FALL TO -10C TO -15C NORTH
AND WEST OF ALBANY...AND -8C TO -10C TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.  MAX
TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN TODAY...BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL BY
10 TO 15 DEGREES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND U20S FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION SOUTH AND EAST AND TEENS TO LOWER 20S TO THE NORTH AND
WEST...WITH SOME SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE SRN DACKS.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE SRN TIER IN THE AFTERNOON...AND
WILL THICKEN AND LOWER TOWARDS 6 PM.  SOME LIGHT OVER RUNNING
SNOWFALL MAY REACH THE SE CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY BTWN 4-6
PM. SOME SLIGHT AND LOW CHC POPS WERE INTRODUCED THERE...BUT A DRY
COLUMN MAY YIELD QUITE A BIT OF VIRGA AT THE ONSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AS A VIGOROUS
NORTHERN STEAM SHORT WAVE COMBINES WITH SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE.
THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY
AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING.


ARCTIC HIGH WILL CONTINUE WEAKEN SUNDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
TO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO TRACK EASTWARD AND MOVE OFF THE DELMARVA COAST ON MONDAY. THERE
HAS BEEN GUIDANCE DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AS
IT HEADS OFFSHORE. THE GFS NOW HAS THE LOW MOVING ALONG THE COAST
ACROSS THE NEW YORK CITY AND LONG ISLAND WHILE THE NAM AND ECMWF
REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE. THE GUIDANCE DOES CONTINUE TO KEEP THE SYSTEM
PROGRESSIVE WITH AN OPEN WAVE ALOFT.

SNOW RATIOS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST ARE EXPECTED
TO START OUT HIGH THEN TRENDED TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY...WHILE RATIOS
WILL REMAIN HIGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA ESPECIALLY AS YOU
HEAD NORTHWARD. THE ENSEMBLE PROBABILISTIC FOR SNOW RATIOS INDICATE
60+% FOR ALBANY AND 64+% FOR GLENS FALLS TO HAVE RATIOS OF 15:1 OR
GREATER.

ALL THIS LEADS TO CONFIDENCE TO UPGRADE THE WATCH TO A WARNING AND
TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...NORTHERN HERKIMER...HAMILTON...NORTHERN WARREN AND NORTHERN
WASHINGTON COUNTIES.

BASED ON THE FORECASTED ONSET OF SNOW HAVE MADE THE START TIME FOR
THE WARNING 9 PM SUNDAY AND THE WATCH AT MIDNIGHT. BOTH RUN
THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY.

THE HEAVIEST MOST INTENSE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM ABOUT 09Z-15Z
MONDAY...IMPACTING THE MORNING COMMUTE TIME...WHEN THE LOW LEVEL JET
WILL BE AT ITS STRONGEST AT 60-70 KNOTS AND PASSING TO OUR SOUTH.
SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES AN HOUR CAN BE EXPECTED. THE SNOW
WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON TAPERING OFF LATE.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS STORM ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR. THIS ALONG
WITH A FRESH SNOW COVER...TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT ARE ANTICIPATED
TO DROP TO ZERO OR BELOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH 10 DEGREES
BELOW ZERO AND COLDER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. MAY NEED
WIND CHILL WARNING AND ADVISORIES FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...HAVE HIGHLIGHTED IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND QUICKLY SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. ANOTHER
COLD DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS...15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL CONTINUE WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND ANOTHER CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A CLIPPER
SYSTEM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE
APPROACHING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC
LIFT PRIMARILY CONFINED TO UPSLOPE-FAVORED AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. ANY ACCUMULATIONS TUESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT...GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH.

THE CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED BETTER DYNAMICS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY...WITH A LIGHT SNOWFALL EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF THE REGION. EXACT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN AT
THIS TIME...BUT A COUPLE OF INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA IS
POSSIBLE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. AS THE CLIPPER SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY. THIS ARCTIC FRONT WILL USHER IN ANOTHER BITTERLY COLD
AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY IMPACT
THE REGION HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL MODERATE SOMEWHAT INTO THE MID 20S
TO LOW 30S ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM...BUT ONLY
RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO UPPER TEENS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
SOME LOCATIONS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY POSSIBLY REACHING INTO THE
LOW 20S. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE 20S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS SATURDAY...WITH UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 5 BELOW ZERO TO 5
ABOVE ZERO...AND ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM NEAR ZERO TO THE SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS TO LOW AND MID TEENS ACROSS
THE CAPITAL REGION...WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MID HUDSON VALLEY.
THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES 5 TO
15 BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE ARCTIC
FRONT. WIND CHILL HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED AS WELL AS A LIGHT
WESTERLY WIND ALLOWS WIND CHILL VALUES TO PLUMMET TO 15 TO 30 BELOW
ZERO. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 5 BELOW ZERO TO
5 ABOVE ZERO WITH WIND CHILLS WELL BELOW ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...PASSING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
TAF SITES BETWEEN MID MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. CLOUDS...AND A
FEW FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF...AND IN THE VICINITY OF
THIS FRONT. THEN...A STORM SYSTEM ORGANIZING OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL TRACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
SPREAD STEADY SNOW FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE TAF SITES
BEGINNING BETWEEN 03Z-07Z/MON.

LOW CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL OVERSPREAD
KGFL/KALB AND KPSF THROUGH 08Z/SUN...AND MAY REACH KPOU CLOSER TO
08Z-10Z/SUN. SOME FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESP AT KALB AND
KPSF. CIGS SHOULD MAINLY REMAIN VFR WITH BASES OF 3500-5000 FT
AGL...BUT COULD OCCASIONALLY APPROACH MVFR...WITH MVFR CIGS MORE
LIKELY AT KPSF.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY...AS SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED BENEATH AN INVERSION. AS A RESULT...BKN
CIGS AROUND 3500-5000 FT WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
MEANWHILE...MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ALSO INCREASE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE MIDWEST. SNOWFALL ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN AT THE TAF SITES ON SUNDAY
EVENING...BUT WILL LIKELY NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER 03Z MONDAY. LIGHT
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE N-NE WINDS WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT AT SPEEDS OF AROUND 5 KTS.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-MON: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SN.
MON NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
TUE-TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WED-WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO THE AREA

CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH ICE THICKEN ON
RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ALBANY SEASON SNOWFALL TOTAL THROUGH JANUARY 30TH STANDS AT 40 INCHES
WHICH IS 6.4 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR NYZ038>041-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR NYZ032-033-042-043.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...FRUGIS/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KALY 010533
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1233 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE ARCTIC HIGH ACROSS THE REGION WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. IT
WILL NOT BE AS COLD...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE BELOW
NORMAL. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO THE AREA. THE
HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1145 PM EST...CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY ADVANCING EASTWARD ACROSS
THE FA. THESE CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS BOUNDARY
WILL BE CROSSING OUR AREA OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH LITTLE MOISTURE AND
DRY LOW LEVELS...LITTLE PRECIP WILL OCCUR. CANNOT RULE OUT A SNOW
SHOWER OR FLURRY FOR NORTHERN AREAS...OTHERWISE IT WILL BE
DRY...WITH JUST SOME PASSING CLOUDS.

IN AREAS THAT ARE STILL CLEAR...TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS THANKS TO DIMINISHING WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES.
HOWEVER...ONCE CLOUDS ARRIVE...TEMPS WILL LEVEL OFF AND POSSIBLY
EVEN RISE A FEW DEGREES. MIN TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS EVERYWHERE...WITH SOME BELOW ZERO READINGS IN THE
ADIRONDACKS AND IN THE GLENS FALLS AREA.

TOMORROW...THE MOISTURE STARVED CLIPPER AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION.  THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL STALL NEAR THE PA/MA BORDER AND CNTRL NJ WESTWARD INTO THE
MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY.  A 1030 HPA OR SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL BUILD IN
FROM SE OF JAMES BAY.  THE SKIES MAY BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY OVER THE
NRN TIER OF THE FCST AREA.  H850 TEMPS FALL TO -10C TO -15C NORTH
AND WEST OF ALBANY...AND -8C TO -10C TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.  MAX
TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN TODAY...BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL BY
10 TO 15 DEGREES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND U20S FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION SOUTH AND EAST AND TEENS TO LOWER 20S TO THE NORTH AND
WEST...WITH SOME SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE SRN DACKS.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE SRN TIER IN THE AFTERNOON...AND
WILL THICKEN AND LOWER TOWARDS 6 PM.  SOME LIGHT OVER RUNNING
SNOWFALL MAY REACH THE SE CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY BTWN 4-6
PM. SOME SLIGHT AND LOW CHC POPS WERE INTRODUCED THERE...BUT A DRY
COLUMN MAY YIELD QUITE A BIT OF VIRGA AT THE ONSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AS A VIGOROUS
NORTHERN STEAM SHORT WAVE COMBINES WITH SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE.
THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY
AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING.


ARCTIC HIGH WILL CONTINUE WEAKEN SUNDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
TO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO TRACK EASTWARD AND MOVE OFF THE DELMARVA COAST ON MONDAY. THERE
HAS BEEN GUIDANCE DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AS
IT HEADS OFFSHORE. THE GFS NOW HAS THE LOW MOVING ALONG THE COAST
ACROSS THE NEW YORK CITY AND LONG ISLAND WHILE THE NAM AND ECMWF
REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE. THE GUIDANCE DOES CONTINUE TO KEEP THE SYSTEM
PROGRESSIVE WITH AN OPEN WAVE ALOFT.

SNOW RATIOS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST ARE EXPECTED
TO START OUT HIGH THEN TRENDED TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY...WHILE RATIOS
WILL REMAIN HIGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA ESPECIALLY AS YOU
HEAD NORTHWARD. THE ENSEMBLE PROBABILISTIC FOR SNOW RATIOS INDICATE
60+% FOR ALBANY AND 64+% FOR GLENS FALLS TO HAVE RATIOS OF 15:1 OR
GREATER.

ALL THIS LEADS TO CONFIDENCE TO UPGRADE THE WATCH TO A WARNING AND
TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...NORTHERN HERKIMER...HAMILTON...NORTHERN WARREN AND NORTHERN
WASHINGTON COUNTIES.

BASED ON THE FORECASTED ONSET OF SNOW HAVE MADE THE START TIME FOR
THE WARNING 9 PM SUNDAY AND THE WATCH AT MIDNIGHT. BOTH RUN
THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY.

THE HEAVIEST MOST INTENSE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM ABOUT 09Z-15Z
MONDAY...IMPACTING THE MORNING COMMUTE TIME...WHEN THE LOW LEVEL JET
WILL BE AT ITS STRONGEST AT 60-70 KNOTS AND PASSING TO OUR SOUTH.
SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES AN HOUR CAN BE EXPECTED. THE SNOW
WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON TAPERING OFF LATE.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS STORM ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR. THIS ALONG
WITH A FRESH SNOW COVER...TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT ARE ANTICIPATED
TO DROP TO ZERO OR BELOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH 10 DEGREES
BELOW ZERO AND COLDER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. MAY NEED
WIND CHILL WARNING AND ADVISORIES FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...HAVE HIGHLIGHTED IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND QUICKLY SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. ANOTHER
COLD DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS...15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL CONTINUE WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND ANOTHER CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A CLIPPER
SYSTEM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE
APPROACHING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC
LIFT PRIMARILY CONFINED TO UPSLOPE-FAVORED AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. ANY ACCUMULATIONS TUESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT...GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH.

THE CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED BETTER DYNAMICS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY...WITH A LIGHT SNOWFALL EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF THE REGION. EXACT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN AT
THIS TIME...BUT A COUPLE OF INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA IS
POSSIBLE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. AS THE CLIPPER SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY. THIS ARCTIC FRONT WILL USHER IN ANOTHER BITTERLY COLD
AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY IMPACT
THE REGION HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL MODERATE SOMEWHAT INTO THE MID 20S
TO LOW 30S ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM...BUT ONLY
RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO UPPER TEENS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
SOME LOCATIONS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY POSSIBLY REACHING INTO THE
LOW 20S. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE 20S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS SATURDAY...WITH UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 5 BELOW ZERO TO 5
ABOVE ZERO...AND ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM NEAR ZERO TO THE SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS TO LOW AND MID TEENS ACROSS
THE CAPITAL REGION...WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MID HUDSON VALLEY.
THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES 5 TO
15 BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE ARCTIC
FRONT. WIND CHILL HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED AS WELL AS A LIGHT
WESTERLY WIND ALLOWS WIND CHILL VALUES TO PLUMMET TO 15 TO 30 BELOW
ZERO. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 5 BELOW ZERO TO
5 ABOVE ZERO WITH WIND CHILLS WELL BELOW ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...PASSING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
TAF SITES BETWEEN MID MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. CLOUDS...AND A
FEW FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF...AND IN THE VICINITY OF
THIS FRONT. THEN...A STORM SYSTEM ORGANIZING OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL TRACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
SPREAD STEADY SNOW FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE TAF SITES
BEGINNING BETWEEN 03Z-07Z/MON.

LOW CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL OVERSPREAD
KGFL/KALB AND KPSF THROUGH 08Z/SUN...AND MAY REACH KPOU CLOSER TO
08Z-10Z/SUN. SOME FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESP AT KALB AND
KPSF. CIGS SHOULD MAINLY REMAIN VFR WITH BASES OF 3500-5000 FT
AGL...BUT COULD OCCASIONALLY APPROACH MVFR...WITH MVFR CIGS MORE
LIKELY AT KPSF.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY...AS SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED BENEATH AN INVERSION. AS A RESULT...BKN
CIGS AROUND 3500-5000 FT WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
MEANWHILE...MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ALSO INCREASE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE MIDWEST. SNOWFALL ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN AT THE TAF SITES ON SUNDAY
EVENING...BUT WILL LIKELY NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER 03Z MONDAY. LIGHT
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE N-NE WINDS WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT AT SPEEDS OF AROUND 5 KTS.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-MON: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SN.
MON NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
TUE-TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WED-WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO THE AREA

CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH ICE THICKEN ON
RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ALBANY SEASON SNOWFALL TOTAL THROUGH JANUARY 30TH STANDS AT 40 INCHES
WHICH IS 6.4 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR NYZ038>041-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR NYZ032-033-042-043.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...FRUGIS/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...








000
FXUS61 KALY 010445
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1145 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE ARCTIC HIGH ACROSS THE REGION WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. IT
WILL NOT BE AS COLD...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE BELOW
NORMAL. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO THE AREA. THE
HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1145 PM EST...CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY ADVANCING EASTWARD ACROSS
THE FA. THESE CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS BOUNDARY
WILL BE CROSSING OUR AREA OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH LITTLE MOISTURE AND
DRY LOW LEVELS...LITTLE PRECIP WILL OCCUR. CANNOT RULE OUT A SNOW
SHOWER OR FLURRY FOR NORTHERN AREAS...OTHERWISE IT WILL BE
DRY...WITH JUST SOME PASSING CLOUDS.

IN AREAS THAT ARE STILL CLEAR...TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS THANKS TO DIMINISHING WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES.
HOWEVER...ONCE CLOUDS ARRIVE...TEMPS WILL LEVEL OFF AND POSSIBLY
EVEN RISE A FEW DEGREES. MIN TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS EVERYWHERE...WITH SOME BELOW ZERO READINGS IN THE
ADIRONDACKS AND IN THE GLENS FALLS AREA.

TOMORROW...THE MOISTURE STARVED CLIPPER AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION.  THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL STALL NEAR THE PA/MA BORDER AND CNTRL NJ WESTWARD INTO THE
MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY.  A 1030 HPA OR SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL BUILD IN
FROM SE OF JAMES BAY.  THE SKIES MAY BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY OVER THE
NRN TIER OF THE FCST AREA.  H850 TEMPS FALL TO -10C TO -15C NORTH
AND WEST OF ALBANY...AND -8C TO -10C TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.  MAX
TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN TODAY...BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL BY
10 TO 15 DEGREES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND U20S FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION SOUTH AND EAST AND TEENS TO LOWER 20S TO THE NORTH AND
WEST...WITH SOME SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE SRN DACKS.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE SRN TIER IN THE AFTERNOON...AND
WILL THICKEN AND LOWER TOWARDS 6 PM.  SOME LIGHT OVER RUNNING
SNOWFALL MAY REACH THE SE CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY BTWN 4-6
PM. SOME SLIGHT AND LOW CHC POPS WERE INTRODUCED THERE...BUT A DRY
COLUMN MAY YIELD QUITE A BIT OF VIRGA AT THE ONSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AS A VIGOROUS
NORTHERN STEAM SHORT WAVE COMBINES WITH SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE.
THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY
AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING.


ARCTIC HIGH WILL CONTINUE WEAKEN SUNDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
TO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO TRACK EASTWARD AND MOVE OFF THE DELMARVA COAST ON MONDAY. THERE
HAS BEEN GUIDANCE DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AS
IT HEADS OFFSHORE. THE GFS NOW HAS THE LOW MOVING ALONG THE COAST
ACROSS THE NEW YORK CITY AND LONG ISLAND WHILE THE NAM AND ECMWF
REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE. THE GUIDANCE DOES CONTINUE TO KEEP THE SYSTEM
PROGRESSIVE WITH AN OPEN WAVE ALOFT.

SNOW RATIOS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST ARE EXPECTED
TO START OUT HIGH THEN TRENDED TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY...WHILE RATIOS
WILL REMAIN HIGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA ESPECIALLY AS YOU
HEAD NORTHWARD. THE ENSEMBLE PROBABILISTIC FOR SNOW RATIOS INDICATE
60+% FOR ALBANY AND 64+% FOR GLENS FALLS TO HAVE RATIOS OF 15:1 OR
GREATER.

ALL THIS LEADS TO CONFIDENCE TO UPGRADE THE WATCH TO A WARNING AND
TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...NORTHERN HERKIMER...HAMILTON...NORTHERN WARREN AND NORTHERN
WASHINGTON COUNTIES.

BASED ON THE FORECASTED ONSET OF SNOW HAVE MADE THE START TIME FOR
THE WARNING 9 PM SUNDAY AND THE WATCH AT MIDNIGHT. BOTH RUN
THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY.

THE HEAVIEST MOST INTENSE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM ABOUT 09Z-15Z
MONDAY...IMPACTING THE MORNING COMMUTE TIME...WHEN THE LOW LEVEL JET
WILL BE AT ITS STRONGEST AT 60-70 KNOTS AND PASSING TO OUR SOUTH.
SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES AN HOUR CAN BE EXPECTED. THE SNOW
WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON TAPERING OFF LATE.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS STORM ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR. THIS ALONG
WITH A FRESH SNOW COVER...TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT ARE ANTICIPATED
TO DROP TO ZERO OR BELOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH 10 DEGREES
BELOW ZERO AND COLDER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. MAY NEED
WIND CHILL WARNING AND ADVISORIES FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...HAVE HIGHLIGHTED IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND QUICKLY SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. ANOTHER
COLD DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS...15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL CONTINUE WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND ANOTHER CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A CLIPPER
SYSTEM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE
APPROACHING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC
LIFT PRIMARILY CONFINED TO UPSLOPE-FAVORED AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. ANY ACCUMULATIONS TUESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT...GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH.

THE CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED BETTER DYNAMICS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY...WITH A LIGHT SNOWFALL EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF THE REGION. EXACT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN AT
THIS TIME...BUT A COUPLE OF INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA IS
POSSIBLE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. AS THE CLIPPER SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY. THIS ARCTIC FRONT WILL USHER IN ANOTHER BITTERLY COLD
AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY IMPACT
THE REGION HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL MODERATE SOMEWHAT INTO THE MID 20S
TO LOW 30S ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM...BUT ONLY
RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO UPPER TEENS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
SOME LOCATIONS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY POSSIBLY REACHING INTO THE
LOW 20S. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE 20S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS SATURDAY...WITH UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 5 BELOW ZERO TO 5
ABOVE ZERO...AND ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM NEAR ZERO TO THE SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS TO LOW AND MID TEENS ACROSS
THE CAPITAL REGION...WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MID HUDSON VALLEY.
THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES 5 TO
15 BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE ARCTIC
FRONT. WIND CHILL HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED AS WELL AS A LIGHT
WESTERLY WIND ALLOWS WIND CHILL VALUES TO PLUMMET TO 15 TO 30 BELOW
ZERO. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 5 BELOW ZERO TO
5 ABOVE ZERO WITH WIND CHILLS WELL BELOW ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
JUST SOME PASSING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT THANKS TO A MOISTURE STARVED
ARCTIC COLD FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. W-NW WINDS AT
5-10 KTS THIS EVENING WILL DIMINISH AND BE LIGHT AND NEARLY CALM
FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY...AS SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED BENEATH AN INVERSION. AS A RESULT...BKN
CIGS AROUND 3500-5000 FT WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
MEANWHILE...MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ALSO INCREASE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE MIDWEST. SNOWFALL ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN AT THE TAF SITES ON SUNDAY
EVENING...BUT WILL LIKELY NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER 00Z MONDAY. LIGHT
N-NE WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL BE AROUND 5 KTS FOR ALL SITES.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-MON: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SN.
MON NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
TUE-TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WED-WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO THE AREA

CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH ICE THICKEN ON
RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ALBANY SEASON SNOWFALL TOTAL THROUGH JANUARY 30TH STANDS AT 40 INCHES
WHICH IS 6.4 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     NYZ038>041-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ032-033-042-043.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KALY 010445
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1145 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE ARCTIC HIGH ACROSS THE REGION WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. IT
WILL NOT BE AS COLD...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE BELOW
NORMAL. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO THE AREA. THE
HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1145 PM EST...CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY ADVANCING EASTWARD ACROSS
THE FA. THESE CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS BOUNDARY
WILL BE CROSSING OUR AREA OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH LITTLE MOISTURE AND
DRY LOW LEVELS...LITTLE PRECIP WILL OCCUR. CANNOT RULE OUT A SNOW
SHOWER OR FLURRY FOR NORTHERN AREAS...OTHERWISE IT WILL BE
DRY...WITH JUST SOME PASSING CLOUDS.

IN AREAS THAT ARE STILL CLEAR...TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS THANKS TO DIMINISHING WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES.
HOWEVER...ONCE CLOUDS ARRIVE...TEMPS WILL LEVEL OFF AND POSSIBLY
EVEN RISE A FEW DEGREES. MIN TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS EVERYWHERE...WITH SOME BELOW ZERO READINGS IN THE
ADIRONDACKS AND IN THE GLENS FALLS AREA.

TOMORROW...THE MOISTURE STARVED CLIPPER AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION.  THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL STALL NEAR THE PA/MA BORDER AND CNTRL NJ WESTWARD INTO THE
MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY.  A 1030 HPA OR SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL BUILD IN
FROM SE OF JAMES BAY.  THE SKIES MAY BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY OVER THE
NRN TIER OF THE FCST AREA.  H850 TEMPS FALL TO -10C TO -15C NORTH
AND WEST OF ALBANY...AND -8C TO -10C TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.  MAX
TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN TODAY...BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL BY
10 TO 15 DEGREES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND U20S FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION SOUTH AND EAST AND TEENS TO LOWER 20S TO THE NORTH AND
WEST...WITH SOME SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE SRN DACKS.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE SRN TIER IN THE AFTERNOON...AND
WILL THICKEN AND LOWER TOWARDS 6 PM.  SOME LIGHT OVER RUNNING
SNOWFALL MAY REACH THE SE CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY BTWN 4-6
PM. SOME SLIGHT AND LOW CHC POPS WERE INTRODUCED THERE...BUT A DRY
COLUMN MAY YIELD QUITE A BIT OF VIRGA AT THE ONSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AS A VIGOROUS
NORTHERN STEAM SHORT WAVE COMBINES WITH SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE.
THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY
AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING.


ARCTIC HIGH WILL CONTINUE WEAKEN SUNDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
TO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO TRACK EASTWARD AND MOVE OFF THE DELMARVA COAST ON MONDAY. THERE
HAS BEEN GUIDANCE DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AS
IT HEADS OFFSHORE. THE GFS NOW HAS THE LOW MOVING ALONG THE COAST
ACROSS THE NEW YORK CITY AND LONG ISLAND WHILE THE NAM AND ECMWF
REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE. THE GUIDANCE DOES CONTINUE TO KEEP THE SYSTEM
PROGRESSIVE WITH AN OPEN WAVE ALOFT.

SNOW RATIOS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST ARE EXPECTED
TO START OUT HIGH THEN TRENDED TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY...WHILE RATIOS
WILL REMAIN HIGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA ESPECIALLY AS YOU
HEAD NORTHWARD. THE ENSEMBLE PROBABILISTIC FOR SNOW RATIOS INDICATE
60+% FOR ALBANY AND 64+% FOR GLENS FALLS TO HAVE RATIOS OF 15:1 OR
GREATER.

ALL THIS LEADS TO CONFIDENCE TO UPGRADE THE WATCH TO A WARNING AND
TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...NORTHERN HERKIMER...HAMILTON...NORTHERN WARREN AND NORTHERN
WASHINGTON COUNTIES.

BASED ON THE FORECASTED ONSET OF SNOW HAVE MADE THE START TIME FOR
THE WARNING 9 PM SUNDAY AND THE WATCH AT MIDNIGHT. BOTH RUN
THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY.

THE HEAVIEST MOST INTENSE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM ABOUT 09Z-15Z
MONDAY...IMPACTING THE MORNING COMMUTE TIME...WHEN THE LOW LEVEL JET
WILL BE AT ITS STRONGEST AT 60-70 KNOTS AND PASSING TO OUR SOUTH.
SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES AN HOUR CAN BE EXPECTED. THE SNOW
WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON TAPERING OFF LATE.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS STORM ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR. THIS ALONG
WITH A FRESH SNOW COVER...TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT ARE ANTICIPATED
TO DROP TO ZERO OR BELOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH 10 DEGREES
BELOW ZERO AND COLDER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. MAY NEED
WIND CHILL WARNING AND ADVISORIES FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...HAVE HIGHLIGHTED IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND QUICKLY SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. ANOTHER
COLD DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS...15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL CONTINUE WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND ANOTHER CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A CLIPPER
SYSTEM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE
APPROACHING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC
LIFT PRIMARILY CONFINED TO UPSLOPE-FAVORED AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. ANY ACCUMULATIONS TUESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT...GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH.

THE CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED BETTER DYNAMICS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY...WITH A LIGHT SNOWFALL EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF THE REGION. EXACT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN AT
THIS TIME...BUT A COUPLE OF INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA IS
POSSIBLE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. AS THE CLIPPER SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY. THIS ARCTIC FRONT WILL USHER IN ANOTHER BITTERLY COLD
AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY IMPACT
THE REGION HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL MODERATE SOMEWHAT INTO THE MID 20S
TO LOW 30S ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM...BUT ONLY
RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO UPPER TEENS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
SOME LOCATIONS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY POSSIBLY REACHING INTO THE
LOW 20S. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE 20S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS SATURDAY...WITH UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 5 BELOW ZERO TO 5
ABOVE ZERO...AND ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM NEAR ZERO TO THE SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS TO LOW AND MID TEENS ACROSS
THE CAPITAL REGION...WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MID HUDSON VALLEY.
THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES 5 TO
15 BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE ARCTIC
FRONT. WIND CHILL HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED AS WELL AS A LIGHT
WESTERLY WIND ALLOWS WIND CHILL VALUES TO PLUMMET TO 15 TO 30 BELOW
ZERO. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 5 BELOW ZERO TO
5 ABOVE ZERO WITH WIND CHILLS WELL BELOW ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
JUST SOME PASSING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT THANKS TO A MOISTURE STARVED
ARCTIC COLD FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. W-NW WINDS AT
5-10 KTS THIS EVENING WILL DIMINISH AND BE LIGHT AND NEARLY CALM
FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY...AS SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED BENEATH AN INVERSION. AS A RESULT...BKN
CIGS AROUND 3500-5000 FT WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
MEANWHILE...MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ALSO INCREASE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE MIDWEST. SNOWFALL ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN AT THE TAF SITES ON SUNDAY
EVENING...BUT WILL LIKELY NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER 00Z MONDAY. LIGHT
N-NE WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL BE AROUND 5 KTS FOR ALL SITES.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-MON: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SN.
MON NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
TUE-TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WED-WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO THE AREA

CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH ICE THICKEN ON
RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ALBANY SEASON SNOWFALL TOTAL THROUGH JANUARY 30TH STANDS AT 40 INCHES
WHICH IS 6.4 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     NYZ038>041-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ032-033-042-043.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...








000
FXUS61 KALY 010445
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1145 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE ARCTIC HIGH ACROSS THE REGION WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. IT
WILL NOT BE AS COLD...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE BELOW
NORMAL. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO THE AREA. THE
HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1145 PM EST...CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY ADVANCING EASTWARD ACROSS
THE FA. THESE CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS BOUNDARY
WILL BE CROSSING OUR AREA OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH LITTLE MOISTURE AND
DRY LOW LEVELS...LITTLE PRECIP WILL OCCUR. CANNOT RULE OUT A SNOW
SHOWER OR FLURRY FOR NORTHERN AREAS...OTHERWISE IT WILL BE
DRY...WITH JUST SOME PASSING CLOUDS.

IN AREAS THAT ARE STILL CLEAR...TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS THANKS TO DIMINISHING WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES.
HOWEVER...ONCE CLOUDS ARRIVE...TEMPS WILL LEVEL OFF AND POSSIBLY
EVEN RISE A FEW DEGREES. MIN TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS EVERYWHERE...WITH SOME BELOW ZERO READINGS IN THE
ADIRONDACKS AND IN THE GLENS FALLS AREA.

TOMORROW...THE MOISTURE STARVED CLIPPER AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION.  THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL STALL NEAR THE PA/MA BORDER AND CNTRL NJ WESTWARD INTO THE
MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY.  A 1030 HPA OR SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL BUILD IN
FROM SE OF JAMES BAY.  THE SKIES MAY BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY OVER THE
NRN TIER OF THE FCST AREA.  H850 TEMPS FALL TO -10C TO -15C NORTH
AND WEST OF ALBANY...AND -8C TO -10C TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.  MAX
TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN TODAY...BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL BY
10 TO 15 DEGREES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND U20S FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION SOUTH AND EAST AND TEENS TO LOWER 20S TO THE NORTH AND
WEST...WITH SOME SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE SRN DACKS.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE SRN TIER IN THE AFTERNOON...AND
WILL THICKEN AND LOWER TOWARDS 6 PM.  SOME LIGHT OVER RUNNING
SNOWFALL MAY REACH THE SE CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY BTWN 4-6
PM. SOME SLIGHT AND LOW CHC POPS WERE INTRODUCED THERE...BUT A DRY
COLUMN MAY YIELD QUITE A BIT OF VIRGA AT THE ONSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AS A VIGOROUS
NORTHERN STEAM SHORT WAVE COMBINES WITH SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE.
THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY
AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING.


ARCTIC HIGH WILL CONTINUE WEAKEN SUNDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
TO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO TRACK EASTWARD AND MOVE OFF THE DELMARVA COAST ON MONDAY. THERE
HAS BEEN GUIDANCE DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AS
IT HEADS OFFSHORE. THE GFS NOW HAS THE LOW MOVING ALONG THE COAST
ACROSS THE NEW YORK CITY AND LONG ISLAND WHILE THE NAM AND ECMWF
REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE. THE GUIDANCE DOES CONTINUE TO KEEP THE SYSTEM
PROGRESSIVE WITH AN OPEN WAVE ALOFT.

SNOW RATIOS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST ARE EXPECTED
TO START OUT HIGH THEN TRENDED TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY...WHILE RATIOS
WILL REMAIN HIGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA ESPECIALLY AS YOU
HEAD NORTHWARD. THE ENSEMBLE PROBABILISTIC FOR SNOW RATIOS INDICATE
60+% FOR ALBANY AND 64+% FOR GLENS FALLS TO HAVE RATIOS OF 15:1 OR
GREATER.

ALL THIS LEADS TO CONFIDENCE TO UPGRADE THE WATCH TO A WARNING AND
TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...NORTHERN HERKIMER...HAMILTON...NORTHERN WARREN AND NORTHERN
WASHINGTON COUNTIES.

BASED ON THE FORECASTED ONSET OF SNOW HAVE MADE THE START TIME FOR
THE WARNING 9 PM SUNDAY AND THE WATCH AT MIDNIGHT. BOTH RUN
THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY.

THE HEAVIEST MOST INTENSE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM ABOUT 09Z-15Z
MONDAY...IMPACTING THE MORNING COMMUTE TIME...WHEN THE LOW LEVEL JET
WILL BE AT ITS STRONGEST AT 60-70 KNOTS AND PASSING TO OUR SOUTH.
SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES AN HOUR CAN BE EXPECTED. THE SNOW
WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON TAPERING OFF LATE.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS STORM ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR. THIS ALONG
WITH A FRESH SNOW COVER...TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT ARE ANTICIPATED
TO DROP TO ZERO OR BELOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH 10 DEGREES
BELOW ZERO AND COLDER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. MAY NEED
WIND CHILL WARNING AND ADVISORIES FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...HAVE HIGHLIGHTED IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND QUICKLY SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. ANOTHER
COLD DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS...15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL CONTINUE WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND ANOTHER CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A CLIPPER
SYSTEM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE
APPROACHING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC
LIFT PRIMARILY CONFINED TO UPSLOPE-FAVORED AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. ANY ACCUMULATIONS TUESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT...GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH.

THE CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED BETTER DYNAMICS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY...WITH A LIGHT SNOWFALL EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF THE REGION. EXACT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN AT
THIS TIME...BUT A COUPLE OF INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA IS
POSSIBLE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. AS THE CLIPPER SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY. THIS ARCTIC FRONT WILL USHER IN ANOTHER BITTERLY COLD
AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY IMPACT
THE REGION HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL MODERATE SOMEWHAT INTO THE MID 20S
TO LOW 30S ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM...BUT ONLY
RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO UPPER TEENS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
SOME LOCATIONS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY POSSIBLY REACHING INTO THE
LOW 20S. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE 20S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS SATURDAY...WITH UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 5 BELOW ZERO TO 5
ABOVE ZERO...AND ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM NEAR ZERO TO THE SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS TO LOW AND MID TEENS ACROSS
THE CAPITAL REGION...WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MID HUDSON VALLEY.
THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES 5 TO
15 BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE ARCTIC
FRONT. WIND CHILL HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED AS WELL AS A LIGHT
WESTERLY WIND ALLOWS WIND CHILL VALUES TO PLUMMET TO 15 TO 30 BELOW
ZERO. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 5 BELOW ZERO TO
5 ABOVE ZERO WITH WIND CHILLS WELL BELOW ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
JUST SOME PASSING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT THANKS TO A MOISTURE STARVED
ARCTIC COLD FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. W-NW WINDS AT
5-10 KTS THIS EVENING WILL DIMINISH AND BE LIGHT AND NEARLY CALM
FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY...AS SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED BENEATH AN INVERSION. AS A RESULT...BKN
CIGS AROUND 3500-5000 FT WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
MEANWHILE...MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ALSO INCREASE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE MIDWEST. SNOWFALL ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN AT THE TAF SITES ON SUNDAY
EVENING...BUT WILL LIKELY NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER 00Z MONDAY. LIGHT
N-NE WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL BE AROUND 5 KTS FOR ALL SITES.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-MON: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SN.
MON NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
TUE-TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WED-WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO THE AREA

CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH ICE THICKEN ON
RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ALBANY SEASON SNOWFALL TOTAL THROUGH JANUARY 30TH STANDS AT 40 INCHES
WHICH IS 6.4 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     NYZ038>041-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ032-033-042-043.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...








000
FXUS61 KALY 010445
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1145 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE ARCTIC HIGH ACROSS THE REGION WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. IT
WILL NOT BE AS COLD...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE BELOW
NORMAL. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO THE AREA. THE
HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1145 PM EST...CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY ADVANCING EASTWARD ACROSS
THE FA. THESE CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS BOUNDARY
WILL BE CROSSING OUR AREA OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH LITTLE MOISTURE AND
DRY LOW LEVELS...LITTLE PRECIP WILL OCCUR. CANNOT RULE OUT A SNOW
SHOWER OR FLURRY FOR NORTHERN AREAS...OTHERWISE IT WILL BE
DRY...WITH JUST SOME PASSING CLOUDS.

IN AREAS THAT ARE STILL CLEAR...TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS THANKS TO DIMINISHING WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES.
HOWEVER...ONCE CLOUDS ARRIVE...TEMPS WILL LEVEL OFF AND POSSIBLY
EVEN RISE A FEW DEGREES. MIN TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS EVERYWHERE...WITH SOME BELOW ZERO READINGS IN THE
ADIRONDACKS AND IN THE GLENS FALLS AREA.

TOMORROW...THE MOISTURE STARVED CLIPPER AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION.  THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL STALL NEAR THE PA/MA BORDER AND CNTRL NJ WESTWARD INTO THE
MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY.  A 1030 HPA OR SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL BUILD IN
FROM SE OF JAMES BAY.  THE SKIES MAY BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY OVER THE
NRN TIER OF THE FCST AREA.  H850 TEMPS FALL TO -10C TO -15C NORTH
AND WEST OF ALBANY...AND -8C TO -10C TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.  MAX
TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN TODAY...BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL BY
10 TO 15 DEGREES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND U20S FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION SOUTH AND EAST AND TEENS TO LOWER 20S TO THE NORTH AND
WEST...WITH SOME SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE SRN DACKS.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE SRN TIER IN THE AFTERNOON...AND
WILL THICKEN AND LOWER TOWARDS 6 PM.  SOME LIGHT OVER RUNNING
SNOWFALL MAY REACH THE SE CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY BTWN 4-6
PM. SOME SLIGHT AND LOW CHC POPS WERE INTRODUCED THERE...BUT A DRY
COLUMN MAY YIELD QUITE A BIT OF VIRGA AT THE ONSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AS A VIGOROUS
NORTHERN STEAM SHORT WAVE COMBINES WITH SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE.
THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY
AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING.


ARCTIC HIGH WILL CONTINUE WEAKEN SUNDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
TO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO TRACK EASTWARD AND MOVE OFF THE DELMARVA COAST ON MONDAY. THERE
HAS BEEN GUIDANCE DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AS
IT HEADS OFFSHORE. THE GFS NOW HAS THE LOW MOVING ALONG THE COAST
ACROSS THE NEW YORK CITY AND LONG ISLAND WHILE THE NAM AND ECMWF
REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE. THE GUIDANCE DOES CONTINUE TO KEEP THE SYSTEM
PROGRESSIVE WITH AN OPEN WAVE ALOFT.

SNOW RATIOS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST ARE EXPECTED
TO START OUT HIGH THEN TRENDED TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY...WHILE RATIOS
WILL REMAIN HIGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA ESPECIALLY AS YOU
HEAD NORTHWARD. THE ENSEMBLE PROBABILISTIC FOR SNOW RATIOS INDICATE
60+% FOR ALBANY AND 64+% FOR GLENS FALLS TO HAVE RATIOS OF 15:1 OR
GREATER.

ALL THIS LEADS TO CONFIDENCE TO UPGRADE THE WATCH TO A WARNING AND
TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...NORTHERN HERKIMER...HAMILTON...NORTHERN WARREN AND NORTHERN
WASHINGTON COUNTIES.

BASED ON THE FORECASTED ONSET OF SNOW HAVE MADE THE START TIME FOR
THE WARNING 9 PM SUNDAY AND THE WATCH AT MIDNIGHT. BOTH RUN
THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY.

THE HEAVIEST MOST INTENSE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM ABOUT 09Z-15Z
MONDAY...IMPACTING THE MORNING COMMUTE TIME...WHEN THE LOW LEVEL JET
WILL BE AT ITS STRONGEST AT 60-70 KNOTS AND PASSING TO OUR SOUTH.
SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES AN HOUR CAN BE EXPECTED. THE SNOW
WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON TAPERING OFF LATE.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS STORM ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR. THIS ALONG
WITH A FRESH SNOW COVER...TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT ARE ANTICIPATED
TO DROP TO ZERO OR BELOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH 10 DEGREES
BELOW ZERO AND COLDER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. MAY NEED
WIND CHILL WARNING AND ADVISORIES FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...HAVE HIGHLIGHTED IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND QUICKLY SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. ANOTHER
COLD DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS...15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL CONTINUE WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND ANOTHER CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A CLIPPER
SYSTEM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE
APPROACHING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC
LIFT PRIMARILY CONFINED TO UPSLOPE-FAVORED AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. ANY ACCUMULATIONS TUESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT...GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH.

THE CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED BETTER DYNAMICS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY...WITH A LIGHT SNOWFALL EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF THE REGION. EXACT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN AT
THIS TIME...BUT A COUPLE OF INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA IS
POSSIBLE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. AS THE CLIPPER SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY. THIS ARCTIC FRONT WILL USHER IN ANOTHER BITTERLY COLD
AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY IMPACT
THE REGION HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL MODERATE SOMEWHAT INTO THE MID 20S
TO LOW 30S ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM...BUT ONLY
RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO UPPER TEENS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
SOME LOCATIONS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY POSSIBLY REACHING INTO THE
LOW 20S. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE 20S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS SATURDAY...WITH UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 5 BELOW ZERO TO 5
ABOVE ZERO...AND ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM NEAR ZERO TO THE SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS TO LOW AND MID TEENS ACROSS
THE CAPITAL REGION...WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MID HUDSON VALLEY.
THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES 5 TO
15 BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE ARCTIC
FRONT. WIND CHILL HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED AS WELL AS A LIGHT
WESTERLY WIND ALLOWS WIND CHILL VALUES TO PLUMMET TO 15 TO 30 BELOW
ZERO. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 5 BELOW ZERO TO
5 ABOVE ZERO WITH WIND CHILLS WELL BELOW ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
JUST SOME PASSING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT THANKS TO A MOISTURE STARVED
ARCTIC COLD FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. W-NW WINDS AT
5-10 KTS THIS EVENING WILL DIMINISH AND BE LIGHT AND NEARLY CALM
FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY...AS SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED BENEATH AN INVERSION. AS A RESULT...BKN
CIGS AROUND 3500-5000 FT WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
MEANWHILE...MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ALSO INCREASE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE MIDWEST. SNOWFALL ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN AT THE TAF SITES ON SUNDAY
EVENING...BUT WILL LIKELY NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER 00Z MONDAY. LIGHT
N-NE WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL BE AROUND 5 KTS FOR ALL SITES.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-MON: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SN.
MON NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
TUE-TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WED-WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO THE AREA

CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH ICE THICKEN ON
RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ALBANY SEASON SNOWFALL TOTAL THROUGH JANUARY 30TH STANDS AT 40 INCHES
WHICH IS 6.4 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     NYZ038>041-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ032-033-042-043.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...








000
FXUS61 KALY 010445
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1145 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE ARCTIC HIGH ACROSS THE REGION WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. IT
WILL NOT BE AS COLD...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE BELOW
NORMAL. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO THE AREA. THE
HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1145 PM EST...CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY ADVANCING EASTWARD ACROSS
THE FA. THESE CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS BOUNDARY
WILL BE CROSSING OUR AREA OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH LITTLE MOISTURE AND
DRY LOW LEVELS...LITTLE PRECIP WILL OCCUR. CANNOT RULE OUT A SNOW
SHOWER OR FLURRY FOR NORTHERN AREAS...OTHERWISE IT WILL BE
DRY...WITH JUST SOME PASSING CLOUDS.

IN AREAS THAT ARE STILL CLEAR...TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS THANKS TO DIMINISHING WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES.
HOWEVER...ONCE CLOUDS ARRIVE...TEMPS WILL LEVEL OFF AND POSSIBLY
EVEN RISE A FEW DEGREES. MIN TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS EVERYWHERE...WITH SOME BELOW ZERO READINGS IN THE
ADIRONDACKS AND IN THE GLENS FALLS AREA.

TOMORROW...THE MOISTURE STARVED CLIPPER AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION.  THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL STALL NEAR THE PA/MA BORDER AND CNTRL NJ WESTWARD INTO THE
MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY.  A 1030 HPA OR SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL BUILD IN
FROM SE OF JAMES BAY.  THE SKIES MAY BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY OVER THE
NRN TIER OF THE FCST AREA.  H850 TEMPS FALL TO -10C TO -15C NORTH
AND WEST OF ALBANY...AND -8C TO -10C TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.  MAX
TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN TODAY...BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL BY
10 TO 15 DEGREES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND U20S FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION SOUTH AND EAST AND TEENS TO LOWER 20S TO THE NORTH AND
WEST...WITH SOME SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE SRN DACKS.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE SRN TIER IN THE AFTERNOON...AND
WILL THICKEN AND LOWER TOWARDS 6 PM.  SOME LIGHT OVER RUNNING
SNOWFALL MAY REACH THE SE CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY BTWN 4-6
PM. SOME SLIGHT AND LOW CHC POPS WERE INTRODUCED THERE...BUT A DRY
COLUMN MAY YIELD QUITE A BIT OF VIRGA AT THE ONSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AS A VIGOROUS
NORTHERN STEAM SHORT WAVE COMBINES WITH SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE.
THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY
AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING.


ARCTIC HIGH WILL CONTINUE WEAKEN SUNDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
TO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO TRACK EASTWARD AND MOVE OFF THE DELMARVA COAST ON MONDAY. THERE
HAS BEEN GUIDANCE DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AS
IT HEADS OFFSHORE. THE GFS NOW HAS THE LOW MOVING ALONG THE COAST
ACROSS THE NEW YORK CITY AND LONG ISLAND WHILE THE NAM AND ECMWF
REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE. THE GUIDANCE DOES CONTINUE TO KEEP THE SYSTEM
PROGRESSIVE WITH AN OPEN WAVE ALOFT.

SNOW RATIOS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST ARE EXPECTED
TO START OUT HIGH THEN TRENDED TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY...WHILE RATIOS
WILL REMAIN HIGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA ESPECIALLY AS YOU
HEAD NORTHWARD. THE ENSEMBLE PROBABILISTIC FOR SNOW RATIOS INDICATE
60+% FOR ALBANY AND 64+% FOR GLENS FALLS TO HAVE RATIOS OF 15:1 OR
GREATER.

ALL THIS LEADS TO CONFIDENCE TO UPGRADE THE WATCH TO A WARNING AND
TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...NORTHERN HERKIMER...HAMILTON...NORTHERN WARREN AND NORTHERN
WASHINGTON COUNTIES.

BASED ON THE FORECASTED ONSET OF SNOW HAVE MADE THE START TIME FOR
THE WARNING 9 PM SUNDAY AND THE WATCH AT MIDNIGHT. BOTH RUN
THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY.

THE HEAVIEST MOST INTENSE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM ABOUT 09Z-15Z
MONDAY...IMPACTING THE MORNING COMMUTE TIME...WHEN THE LOW LEVEL JET
WILL BE AT ITS STRONGEST AT 60-70 KNOTS AND PASSING TO OUR SOUTH.
SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES AN HOUR CAN BE EXPECTED. THE SNOW
WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON TAPERING OFF LATE.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS STORM ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR. THIS ALONG
WITH A FRESH SNOW COVER...TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT ARE ANTICIPATED
TO DROP TO ZERO OR BELOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH 10 DEGREES
BELOW ZERO AND COLDER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. MAY NEED
WIND CHILL WARNING AND ADVISORIES FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...HAVE HIGHLIGHTED IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND QUICKLY SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. ANOTHER
COLD DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS...15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL CONTINUE WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND ANOTHER CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A CLIPPER
SYSTEM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE
APPROACHING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC
LIFT PRIMARILY CONFINED TO UPSLOPE-FAVORED AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. ANY ACCUMULATIONS TUESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT...GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH.

THE CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED BETTER DYNAMICS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY...WITH A LIGHT SNOWFALL EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF THE REGION. EXACT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN AT
THIS TIME...BUT A COUPLE OF INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA IS
POSSIBLE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. AS THE CLIPPER SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY. THIS ARCTIC FRONT WILL USHER IN ANOTHER BITTERLY COLD
AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY IMPACT
THE REGION HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL MODERATE SOMEWHAT INTO THE MID 20S
TO LOW 30S ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM...BUT ONLY
RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO UPPER TEENS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
SOME LOCATIONS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY POSSIBLY REACHING INTO THE
LOW 20S. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE 20S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS SATURDAY...WITH UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 5 BELOW ZERO TO 5
ABOVE ZERO...AND ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM NEAR ZERO TO THE SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS TO LOW AND MID TEENS ACROSS
THE CAPITAL REGION...WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MID HUDSON VALLEY.
THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES 5 TO
15 BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE ARCTIC
FRONT. WIND CHILL HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED AS WELL AS A LIGHT
WESTERLY WIND ALLOWS WIND CHILL VALUES TO PLUMMET TO 15 TO 30 BELOW
ZERO. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 5 BELOW ZERO TO
5 ABOVE ZERO WITH WIND CHILLS WELL BELOW ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
JUST SOME PASSING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT THANKS TO A MOISTURE STARVED
ARCTIC COLD FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. W-NW WINDS AT
5-10 KTS THIS EVENING WILL DIMINISH AND BE LIGHT AND NEARLY CALM
FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY...AS SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED BENEATH AN INVERSION. AS A RESULT...BKN
CIGS AROUND 3500-5000 FT WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
MEANWHILE...MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ALSO INCREASE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE MIDWEST. SNOWFALL ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN AT THE TAF SITES ON SUNDAY
EVENING...BUT WILL LIKELY NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER 00Z MONDAY. LIGHT
N-NE WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL BE AROUND 5 KTS FOR ALL SITES.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-MON: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SN.
MON NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
TUE-TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WED-WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO THE AREA

CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH ICE THICKEN ON
RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ALBANY SEASON SNOWFALL TOTAL THROUGH JANUARY 30TH STANDS AT 40 INCHES
WHICH IS 6.4 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     NYZ038>041-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ032-033-042-043.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...








000
FXUS61 KALY 010445
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1145 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE ARCTIC HIGH ACROSS THE REGION WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. IT
WILL NOT BE AS COLD...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE BELOW
NORMAL. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO THE AREA. THE
HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1145 PM EST...CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY ADVANCING EASTWARD ACROSS
THE FA. THESE CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS BOUNDARY
WILL BE CROSSING OUR AREA OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH LITTLE MOISTURE AND
DRY LOW LEVELS...LITTLE PRECIP WILL OCCUR. CANNOT RULE OUT A SNOW
SHOWER OR FLURRY FOR NORTHERN AREAS...OTHERWISE IT WILL BE
DRY...WITH JUST SOME PASSING CLOUDS.

IN AREAS THAT ARE STILL CLEAR...TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS THANKS TO DIMINISHING WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES.
HOWEVER...ONCE CLOUDS ARRIVE...TEMPS WILL LEVEL OFF AND POSSIBLY
EVEN RISE A FEW DEGREES. MIN TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS EVERYWHERE...WITH SOME BELOW ZERO READINGS IN THE
ADIRONDACKS AND IN THE GLENS FALLS AREA.

TOMORROW...THE MOISTURE STARVED CLIPPER AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION.  THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL STALL NEAR THE PA/MA BORDER AND CNTRL NJ WESTWARD INTO THE
MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY.  A 1030 HPA OR SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL BUILD IN
FROM SE OF JAMES BAY.  THE SKIES MAY BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY OVER THE
NRN TIER OF THE FCST AREA.  H850 TEMPS FALL TO -10C TO -15C NORTH
AND WEST OF ALBANY...AND -8C TO -10C TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.  MAX
TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN TODAY...BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL BY
10 TO 15 DEGREES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND U20S FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION SOUTH AND EAST AND TEENS TO LOWER 20S TO THE NORTH AND
WEST...WITH SOME SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE SRN DACKS.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE SRN TIER IN THE AFTERNOON...AND
WILL THICKEN AND LOWER TOWARDS 6 PM.  SOME LIGHT OVER RUNNING
SNOWFALL MAY REACH THE SE CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY BTWN 4-6
PM. SOME SLIGHT AND LOW CHC POPS WERE INTRODUCED THERE...BUT A DRY
COLUMN MAY YIELD QUITE A BIT OF VIRGA AT THE ONSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AS A VIGOROUS
NORTHERN STEAM SHORT WAVE COMBINES WITH SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE.
THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY
AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING.


ARCTIC HIGH WILL CONTINUE WEAKEN SUNDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
TO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO TRACK EASTWARD AND MOVE OFF THE DELMARVA COAST ON MONDAY. THERE
HAS BEEN GUIDANCE DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AS
IT HEADS OFFSHORE. THE GFS NOW HAS THE LOW MOVING ALONG THE COAST
ACROSS THE NEW YORK CITY AND LONG ISLAND WHILE THE NAM AND ECMWF
REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE. THE GUIDANCE DOES CONTINUE TO KEEP THE SYSTEM
PROGRESSIVE WITH AN OPEN WAVE ALOFT.

SNOW RATIOS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST ARE EXPECTED
TO START OUT HIGH THEN TRENDED TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY...WHILE RATIOS
WILL REMAIN HIGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA ESPECIALLY AS YOU
HEAD NORTHWARD. THE ENSEMBLE PROBABILISTIC FOR SNOW RATIOS INDICATE
60+% FOR ALBANY AND 64+% FOR GLENS FALLS TO HAVE RATIOS OF 15:1 OR
GREATER.

ALL THIS LEADS TO CONFIDENCE TO UPGRADE THE WATCH TO A WARNING AND
TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...NORTHERN HERKIMER...HAMILTON...NORTHERN WARREN AND NORTHERN
WASHINGTON COUNTIES.

BASED ON THE FORECASTED ONSET OF SNOW HAVE MADE THE START TIME FOR
THE WARNING 9 PM SUNDAY AND THE WATCH AT MIDNIGHT. BOTH RUN
THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY.

THE HEAVIEST MOST INTENSE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM ABOUT 09Z-15Z
MONDAY...IMPACTING THE MORNING COMMUTE TIME...WHEN THE LOW LEVEL JET
WILL BE AT ITS STRONGEST AT 60-70 KNOTS AND PASSING TO OUR SOUTH.
SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES AN HOUR CAN BE EXPECTED. THE SNOW
WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON TAPERING OFF LATE.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS STORM ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR. THIS ALONG
WITH A FRESH SNOW COVER...TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT ARE ANTICIPATED
TO DROP TO ZERO OR BELOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH 10 DEGREES
BELOW ZERO AND COLDER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. MAY NEED
WIND CHILL WARNING AND ADVISORIES FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...HAVE HIGHLIGHTED IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND QUICKLY SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. ANOTHER
COLD DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS...15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL CONTINUE WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND ANOTHER CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A CLIPPER
SYSTEM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE
APPROACHING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC
LIFT PRIMARILY CONFINED TO UPSLOPE-FAVORED AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. ANY ACCUMULATIONS TUESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT...GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH.

THE CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED BETTER DYNAMICS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY...WITH A LIGHT SNOWFALL EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF THE REGION. EXACT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN AT
THIS TIME...BUT A COUPLE OF INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA IS
POSSIBLE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. AS THE CLIPPER SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY. THIS ARCTIC FRONT WILL USHER IN ANOTHER BITTERLY COLD
AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY IMPACT
THE REGION HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL MODERATE SOMEWHAT INTO THE MID 20S
TO LOW 30S ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM...BUT ONLY
RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO UPPER TEENS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
SOME LOCATIONS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY POSSIBLY REACHING INTO THE
LOW 20S. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE 20S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS SATURDAY...WITH UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 5 BELOW ZERO TO 5
ABOVE ZERO...AND ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM NEAR ZERO TO THE SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS TO LOW AND MID TEENS ACROSS
THE CAPITAL REGION...WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MID HUDSON VALLEY.
THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES 5 TO
15 BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE ARCTIC
FRONT. WIND CHILL HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED AS WELL AS A LIGHT
WESTERLY WIND ALLOWS WIND CHILL VALUES TO PLUMMET TO 15 TO 30 BELOW
ZERO. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 5 BELOW ZERO TO
5 ABOVE ZERO WITH WIND CHILLS WELL BELOW ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
JUST SOME PASSING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT THANKS TO A MOISTURE STARVED
ARCTIC COLD FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. W-NW WINDS AT
5-10 KTS THIS EVENING WILL DIMINISH AND BE LIGHT AND NEARLY CALM
FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY...AS SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED BENEATH AN INVERSION. AS A RESULT...BKN
CIGS AROUND 3500-5000 FT WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
MEANWHILE...MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ALSO INCREASE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE MIDWEST. SNOWFALL ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN AT THE TAF SITES ON SUNDAY
EVENING...BUT WILL LIKELY NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER 00Z MONDAY. LIGHT
N-NE WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL BE AROUND 5 KTS FOR ALL SITES.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-MON: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SN.
MON NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
TUE-TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WED-WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO THE AREA

CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH ICE THICKEN ON
RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ALBANY SEASON SNOWFALL TOTAL THROUGH JANUARY 30TH STANDS AT 40 INCHES
WHICH IS 6.4 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     NYZ038>041-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ032-033-042-043.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...








000
FXUS61 KOKX 010258
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
958 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TONIGHT...BEFORE A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND CROSSES ON SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY AND PASSES JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND MONDAY. THE
LOW TRACKS WELL TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN ITS PLACE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL LARGELY PREVAIL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
LATE WEDNESDAY. A DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE GULF COAST STATES LATE
IN THE WEEK LOOKS TO TAKE A TRACK WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MINOR CHANGES MADE TO REFLECT CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...OTHERWISE
FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

NEAR ZONAL FLOW TONIGHT WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
WEST THIS EVENING...AND THEN A POLAR FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
GREAT LAKES.

WINDS AND GUSTS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH MIDNIGHT...WITH INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.

TEMPS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS COLD WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
TEENS...EXCEPT 20S NYC/NJ METRO...WITH NEUTRAL TEMPS ADVECTION AND
LIMITED OPPORTUNITY FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. COULD SEE SOME SINGLE
DIGITS IN PINE BARRENS AND INTERIOR TRI-STATE WITH DECOUPLING BEFORE
CLOUDS MOVE IN.

PHASING NORTHERN STREAM AND SW US SHORTWAVE ENERGY BEGINS TO DIG
INTO THE CENTRAL US ON SUNDAY WITH GENERALLY WSW UPPER FLOW.

A WEAKENING POLAR FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION ON SUNDAY...BUT
OTHERWISE INCREASING AND LOWERING CLOUDS AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING
STORM SYSTEM. A FEW SNOW FLAKES MAY BE OBSERVED OVER NJ VERY LATE IN
THE DAY. TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAIN STORY WILL BE NEXT IN A SERIES OF WINTER STORMS AFFECTING THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH LOW PRESSURE TAKING SHAPE
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN TONIGHT...TRACKING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON
SUNDAY AND THEN JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. OVERALL
TREND HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH AND WETTER WITH THIS SYSTEM.

BASED ON COUPLED JET STRUCTURE...TIGHT LOW /MID-LEVEL THERMAL
STRUCTURE...AND GULF MOISTURE FEED OF 2-3 STD PWATS...CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH IN AT LEAST A 3/4 TO 1 1/2 INCH QPF EVENT FOR THE ENTIRE
AREA. THIS IS BORNE OUT IN SREF/GEFS/CMCE 1 INCH/24 HR QPF PROBS.

SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY LIES IN P-TYPE...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE
COAST...WITH A SPREAD OF ABOUT 50 MILES BETWEEN OPERATIONAL
SOLUTIONS AND ENSEMBLE MEANS IN HOW CLOSE TO THE COAST THE LOW
GETS AND THE POSITION OF THE TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION. SBU ENSEMBLE SENSITIVITY SHOWING THIS N/S TRACK UNCERTAINTY
IN THE 00Z GEFS/CMCE/ECMWF ENSEMBLES...WITH SENSITIVITY LYING IN
DEGREE OF PHASING/INTERACTION BETWEEN NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DROPPING DOWN THROUGH MONTANA AND THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW OVER
THE SW US...AND RESULTANT STRENGTH OF TROUGH APPROACHING THE EAST
COAST SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AND UPSTREAM RIDGING. A STRONGER
TROUGH...MEANING MORE UPSTREAM RIDGING...AND A FURTHER NORTH
TRACK. THIS INTERACTION IS NOT COMPLETE FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS...SO
COULD TAKE UNTIL THEN FOR CONFIDENCE IN P-TYPE FORECAST INCREASES.

WITH CONFLUENT FLOW ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND/SE CANADA...ARCTIC
HIGH SHOULD BE LOCKED INTO THAT AREA. PREFER TIGHTER THERMAL
STRUCTURE ALOFT OF NAM/ECMWF/CAN VERSUS MORE DIFFUSE THERMAL
STRUCTURE OF GFS IN THIS SITUATION...BUT QUESTION IS LOCATION OF
THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE. MODEL SOLUTIONS POINTING TO DIFFERING
DEGREES OF WARMING IN THE 800-950 LAYER MON MORNING INTO EARLY
AFT...BUT TREND IS TOWARDS MORE WARMING.

WITH THIS SAID...NORTHWEST TIER OF THE TRI-STATE LOOKS TO BE
MAINLY SNOW. BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE IS FOR COAST...ESPECIALLY
NYC/NJ/LI...IN AMOUNT OF SLEET/FZRA/RA VERSUS SNOW. 12Z GFS/GEFS
ARE FURTHER NORTH WITH LOW TRACK...JUST SOUTH OF LI MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH WOULD IMPLY MORE IN THE WAY OF WARMING
ALOFT...AND MORE IN WAY MIXING WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN AND
EVEN RAIN FOR LI/NYC. 12Z GEM HAS TRENDED IN THAT DIRECTION AS
WELL. 12Z NAM...WOULD POINT TO MAINLY SNOW FOR CT AND LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY...WITH A MIX OF SIGNIFICANT SNOW/SLEET ACCUM FOR
NYC/LI/METRO NJ. 00Z ECMWF...IS SIMILARLY COLDER AND A BIT FARTHER
SOUTH AS WITH THE NAM. HAVE TAKEN A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD SOLUTION
BASED ON THE UNCERTAINTY...WITH A SLIGHTLY WETTER AND WARMER
FORECAST.

EVEN WITH CONTINUED NORTHWARD TREND...HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN
SIGNIFICANT SNOW/SLEET/ICE ACROSS INTERIOR NE NJ...AND MOST OF THE
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND CT. HAVE UPGRADED TO WARNING THERE FOR 5
TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW/SLEET AND UP TO 1/4 INCH OF ICE. INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND SW CT...MORE IN THE 8 TO 14
INCH RANGE WITH LESS ICE/SLEET.

EVEN FOR NYC/NJ METRO AND LI...COULD SEE A QUICK 3 TO 5 INCH
SNOWFALL ON THE FRONT END WITH SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE AND STRONG
LIFT LATE SUN NIGHT/EARLY MON MORNING BEFORE ANY MIXING. AFTER
CHANGEOVER...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF FZRA/SLEET (1/4 INCH OF ICE)
POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN HALF OF LI/NYC AND NE NJ...WITH COLD AIR
DRAINAGE DOWN THE RIVER VALLEYS. HAVE MAINTAINED A WATCH HERE WITH
UNCERTAINTY IF WE CHANGEOVER TO MORE RAIN...PARTICULARLY FOR SOUTH
COASTAL AREAS. THE ONE ASPECT TO KEEP IN MIND IS IF COASTAL AREAS
DO GO OVER TO RAIN...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR URBAN FLOODING ISSUES.
SEE HYDROLOGY SECTION FOR MORE INFO.

ANY RAIN/MIXED PRECIP SHOULD GRADUALLY CHANGE BACK TO SNOW FROM NW
TO SE MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVE. EVEN SOME SIGNAL OF DEFORMATION BANDING
ON THE BACKSIDE...WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW BACK DOWN TO THE COAST.
WITH COLD AIR CRASHING BACK DOWN TO THE COAST...POTENTIAL FOR
FLASH FREEZE CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY EVENING COMMUTE FOR CITY/COAST
IN WAKE OF A WASHING RAIN. SO TO SAY THE LEAST...A COMPLICATED
FORECAST FOR THE NYC/NJ METRO AND LONG ISLAND...WHICH COULD STILL
SEE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EVEN IF IT IS NOT ALL FROZEN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A BROAD UPPER TROF WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK
FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES OF WESTERN CANADA SE INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION. THIS WILL KEEP A STEADY STREAM OF POLAR AIR
MASSES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WITH GENERALLY UNSEASONABLY COLD
CONDITIONS. THIS SEASON HAS BEEN TYPIFIED BY THIS FLOW REGIME WITH
NO BLOCK OVER GREENLAND. OCCASIONALLY...A STRONG SHORT WAVE BRIEFLY
AMPLIFIES THE FLOW...BUT REMAINS PROGRESSIVE.

THE ONLY CHANCE FOR PCPN LOOKS TO BE WITH A POLAR COLD FRONT WED
INTO WED NIGHT...WHICH WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SCT SNOW SNOW SHOWERS.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED WELL SOUTH AND EAST WITH A LATE WEEK COASTAL LOW
MOVING OUT OF THE GULF COAST STATES. THUS...HAVE TRENDED DOWN TO THE
POINT WHERE THERE IS NO MENTION OF PCPN LATE IN THE WEEK.
INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH THOUGH...MODELS HAVE BEEN WAVERING BACK AND
FORTH WITH THESE SYSTEMS...SO PERHAPS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE
WOODS.

THE ONLY DAY OF THE WEEK THAT LOOKS TO BE NEAR NORMAL WITH RESPECT
TO TEMPS IS WED AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
  **HIGH IMPACT EVENT SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY**

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING WEAKENS TONIGHT AS A
WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE APPROACH. THE WARM FRONT WILL
BE IN THE VICINITY BY 00Z MONDAY. LIGHT SNOW WILL BE DEVELOPING LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON MAINLY WEST OF THE NYC TERMINALS...AND BECOME
LIKELY AROUND 00Z MONDAY WITH CONDITIONS LOWERING TO IFR. THERE IS
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE TIMING OF THE BEGINNING OF THE
SNOW.

GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND SUBSIDE BY 03Z WITH THE WIND BECOMING MORE
WESTERLY...GENERALLY UNDER 10 KT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...HIGH IMPACT PERIOD. IFR HIGHLY LIKELY AS SNOW
DEVELOPS SUNDAY EVENING...THEN CONTINUES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. A
WINTRY MIX OF  SLEET...SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN BECOMES LIKELY EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AT THE NYC METRO TERMINALS AND ACROSS LONG ISLAND.
THE WINTRY MIX PUSHES FARTHER NORTH DURING MONDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUES INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE GOING BACK TO ALL SNOW BEFORE
ENDING MONDAY EVENING.
.MONDAY NIGHT...BECOMING VFR AS SNOW COMES TO AN END. N-NW WIND 15
TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT.
.TUESDAY...VFR.
.WEDNESDAY...VFR. A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOCALLY MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS.
.THURSDAY...VFR. NW GUSTS 20 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA HAS BEEN CANCELLED ACROSS LONG ISLAND SOUND...PECONIC AND
GARDINERS BAYS...AND THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS AS WIND GUSTS HAVE
DIMINISHED TO LESS THAN 25 KT IN THESE AREAS.

SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR ALL OTHER MARINE ZONES FOR THE REST
OF THE NIGHT WITH A GRADUALLY DIMINISHING NW FLOW. 5 TO 9 FT SEAS
WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 5 FT DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

TRANQUIL CONDS ON THE WATERS SUN AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVERHEAD AND
DEPARTS. CONDS RAMP UP TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE. A FEW
GALE GUSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A MARGINAL GALE EVENT MON NIGHT ON THE
BACKSIDE OF DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE LIFTING UP INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. WINDS AND SEAS ARE THEN FORECAST TO SUBSIDE BELOW SCA
LEVELS ON TUE WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE WATERS.
MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN WATERS WED IN A
PRE-FRONTAL SW FLOW...AND THEN IN THE NW POST-FRONTAL FLOW ON THU.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GENERALLY 1 TO 1 1/2 INCHES OF LIQUID FORECAST WITH THE SYSTEM
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. MOST OF THIS WILL BE SNOW AND SLEET
ACROSS NE NJ...LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND CT.

ACROSS LI/NYC THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF HEAVY
RAIN...WITH SOME MODELS SIGNALING UP TO 2 INCHES OF QPF.
ALTHOUGH THIS POTENTIAL IS LOW...IF MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE
NORTH...THIS POTENTIAL WOULD INCREASE...RESULTING IN URBAN
FLOODING ISSUES.

NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PCPN IS FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING THRESHOLDS
BEING REACHED WITH THE MONDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLE ALONG THE
WESTERN SOUTH SHORE BAYS AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF LI SOUND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR CTZ011-012.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     CTZ005>010.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ071>075-078>081-176>179.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     NYZ067>070.
NJ...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NJZ004-006-104>108.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     NJZ002-103.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ338.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NV/DW
NEAR TERM...JP/NV/DW
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JP/NV/DW
HYDROLOGY...NV/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...










000
FXUS61 KOKX 010258
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
958 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TONIGHT...BEFORE A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND CROSSES ON SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY AND PASSES JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND MONDAY. THE
LOW TRACKS WELL TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN ITS PLACE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL LARGELY PREVAIL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
LATE WEDNESDAY. A DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE GULF COAST STATES LATE
IN THE WEEK LOOKS TO TAKE A TRACK WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MINOR CHANGES MADE TO REFLECT CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...OTHERWISE
FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

NEAR ZONAL FLOW TONIGHT WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
WEST THIS EVENING...AND THEN A POLAR FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
GREAT LAKES.

WINDS AND GUSTS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH MIDNIGHT...WITH INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.

TEMPS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS COLD WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
TEENS...EXCEPT 20S NYC/NJ METRO...WITH NEUTRAL TEMPS ADVECTION AND
LIMITED OPPORTUNITY FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. COULD SEE SOME SINGLE
DIGITS IN PINE BARRENS AND INTERIOR TRI-STATE WITH DECOUPLING BEFORE
CLOUDS MOVE IN.

PHASING NORTHERN STREAM AND SW US SHORTWAVE ENERGY BEGINS TO DIG
INTO THE CENTRAL US ON SUNDAY WITH GENERALLY WSW UPPER FLOW.

A WEAKENING POLAR FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION ON SUNDAY...BUT
OTHERWISE INCREASING AND LOWERING CLOUDS AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING
STORM SYSTEM. A FEW SNOW FLAKES MAY BE OBSERVED OVER NJ VERY LATE IN
THE DAY. TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAIN STORY WILL BE NEXT IN A SERIES OF WINTER STORMS AFFECTING THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH LOW PRESSURE TAKING SHAPE
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN TONIGHT...TRACKING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON
SUNDAY AND THEN JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. OVERALL
TREND HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH AND WETTER WITH THIS SYSTEM.

BASED ON COUPLED JET STRUCTURE...TIGHT LOW /MID-LEVEL THERMAL
STRUCTURE...AND GULF MOISTURE FEED OF 2-3 STD PWATS...CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH IN AT LEAST A 3/4 TO 1 1/2 INCH QPF EVENT FOR THE ENTIRE
AREA. THIS IS BORNE OUT IN SREF/GEFS/CMCE 1 INCH/24 HR QPF PROBS.

SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY LIES IN P-TYPE...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE
COAST...WITH A SPREAD OF ABOUT 50 MILES BETWEEN OPERATIONAL
SOLUTIONS AND ENSEMBLE MEANS IN HOW CLOSE TO THE COAST THE LOW
GETS AND THE POSITION OF THE TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION. SBU ENSEMBLE SENSITIVITY SHOWING THIS N/S TRACK UNCERTAINTY
IN THE 00Z GEFS/CMCE/ECMWF ENSEMBLES...WITH SENSITIVITY LYING IN
DEGREE OF PHASING/INTERACTION BETWEEN NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DROPPING DOWN THROUGH MONTANA AND THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW OVER
THE SW US...AND RESULTANT STRENGTH OF TROUGH APPROACHING THE EAST
COAST SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AND UPSTREAM RIDGING. A STRONGER
TROUGH...MEANING MORE UPSTREAM RIDGING...AND A FURTHER NORTH
TRACK. THIS INTERACTION IS NOT COMPLETE FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS...SO
COULD TAKE UNTIL THEN FOR CONFIDENCE IN P-TYPE FORECAST INCREASES.

WITH CONFLUENT FLOW ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND/SE CANADA...ARCTIC
HIGH SHOULD BE LOCKED INTO THAT AREA. PREFER TIGHTER THERMAL
STRUCTURE ALOFT OF NAM/ECMWF/CAN VERSUS MORE DIFFUSE THERMAL
STRUCTURE OF GFS IN THIS SITUATION...BUT QUESTION IS LOCATION OF
THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE. MODEL SOLUTIONS POINTING TO DIFFERING
DEGREES OF WARMING IN THE 800-950 LAYER MON MORNING INTO EARLY
AFT...BUT TREND IS TOWARDS MORE WARMING.

WITH THIS SAID...NORTHWEST TIER OF THE TRI-STATE LOOKS TO BE
MAINLY SNOW. BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE IS FOR COAST...ESPECIALLY
NYC/NJ/LI...IN AMOUNT OF SLEET/FZRA/RA VERSUS SNOW. 12Z GFS/GEFS
ARE FURTHER NORTH WITH LOW TRACK...JUST SOUTH OF LI MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH WOULD IMPLY MORE IN THE WAY OF WARMING
ALOFT...AND MORE IN WAY MIXING WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN AND
EVEN RAIN FOR LI/NYC. 12Z GEM HAS TRENDED IN THAT DIRECTION AS
WELL. 12Z NAM...WOULD POINT TO MAINLY SNOW FOR CT AND LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY...WITH A MIX OF SIGNIFICANT SNOW/SLEET ACCUM FOR
NYC/LI/METRO NJ. 00Z ECMWF...IS SIMILARLY COLDER AND A BIT FARTHER
SOUTH AS WITH THE NAM. HAVE TAKEN A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD SOLUTION
BASED ON THE UNCERTAINTY...WITH A SLIGHTLY WETTER AND WARMER
FORECAST.

EVEN WITH CONTINUED NORTHWARD TREND...HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN
SIGNIFICANT SNOW/SLEET/ICE ACROSS INTERIOR NE NJ...AND MOST OF THE
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND CT. HAVE UPGRADED TO WARNING THERE FOR 5
TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW/SLEET AND UP TO 1/4 INCH OF ICE. INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND SW CT...MORE IN THE 8 TO 14
INCH RANGE WITH LESS ICE/SLEET.

EVEN FOR NYC/NJ METRO AND LI...COULD SEE A QUICK 3 TO 5 INCH
SNOWFALL ON THE FRONT END WITH SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE AND STRONG
LIFT LATE SUN NIGHT/EARLY MON MORNING BEFORE ANY MIXING. AFTER
CHANGEOVER...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF FZRA/SLEET (1/4 INCH OF ICE)
POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN HALF OF LI/NYC AND NE NJ...WITH COLD AIR
DRAINAGE DOWN THE RIVER VALLEYS. HAVE MAINTAINED A WATCH HERE WITH
UNCERTAINTY IF WE CHANGEOVER TO MORE RAIN...PARTICULARLY FOR SOUTH
COASTAL AREAS. THE ONE ASPECT TO KEEP IN MIND IS IF COASTAL AREAS
DO GO OVER TO RAIN...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR URBAN FLOODING ISSUES.
SEE HYDROLOGY SECTION FOR MORE INFO.

ANY RAIN/MIXED PRECIP SHOULD GRADUALLY CHANGE BACK TO SNOW FROM NW
TO SE MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVE. EVEN SOME SIGNAL OF DEFORMATION BANDING
ON THE BACKSIDE...WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW BACK DOWN TO THE COAST.
WITH COLD AIR CRASHING BACK DOWN TO THE COAST...POTENTIAL FOR
FLASH FREEZE CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY EVENING COMMUTE FOR CITY/COAST
IN WAKE OF A WASHING RAIN. SO TO SAY THE LEAST...A COMPLICATED
FORECAST FOR THE NYC/NJ METRO AND LONG ISLAND...WHICH COULD STILL
SEE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EVEN IF IT IS NOT ALL FROZEN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A BROAD UPPER TROF WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK
FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES OF WESTERN CANADA SE INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION. THIS WILL KEEP A STEADY STREAM OF POLAR AIR
MASSES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WITH GENERALLY UNSEASONABLY COLD
CONDITIONS. THIS SEASON HAS BEEN TYPIFIED BY THIS FLOW REGIME WITH
NO BLOCK OVER GREENLAND. OCCASIONALLY...A STRONG SHORT WAVE BRIEFLY
AMPLIFIES THE FLOW...BUT REMAINS PROGRESSIVE.

THE ONLY CHANCE FOR PCPN LOOKS TO BE WITH A POLAR COLD FRONT WED
INTO WED NIGHT...WHICH WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SCT SNOW SNOW SHOWERS.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED WELL SOUTH AND EAST WITH A LATE WEEK COASTAL LOW
MOVING OUT OF THE GULF COAST STATES. THUS...HAVE TRENDED DOWN TO THE
POINT WHERE THERE IS NO MENTION OF PCPN LATE IN THE WEEK.
INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH THOUGH...MODELS HAVE BEEN WAVERING BACK AND
FORTH WITH THESE SYSTEMS...SO PERHAPS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE
WOODS.

THE ONLY DAY OF THE WEEK THAT LOOKS TO BE NEAR NORMAL WITH RESPECT
TO TEMPS IS WED AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
  **HIGH IMPACT EVENT SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY**

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING WEAKENS TONIGHT AS A
WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE APPROACH. THE WARM FRONT WILL
BE IN THE VICINITY BY 00Z MONDAY. LIGHT SNOW WILL BE DEVELOPING LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON MAINLY WEST OF THE NYC TERMINALS...AND BECOME
LIKELY AROUND 00Z MONDAY WITH CONDITIONS LOWERING TO IFR. THERE IS
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE TIMING OF THE BEGINNING OF THE
SNOW.

GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND SUBSIDE BY 03Z WITH THE WIND BECOMING MORE
WESTERLY...GENERALLY UNDER 10 KT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...HIGH IMPACT PERIOD. IFR HIGHLY LIKELY AS SNOW
DEVELOPS SUNDAY EVENING...THEN CONTINUES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. A
WINTRY MIX OF  SLEET...SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN BECOMES LIKELY EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AT THE NYC METRO TERMINALS AND ACROSS LONG ISLAND.
THE WINTRY MIX PUSHES FARTHER NORTH DURING MONDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUES INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE GOING BACK TO ALL SNOW BEFORE
ENDING MONDAY EVENING.
.MONDAY NIGHT...BECOMING VFR AS SNOW COMES TO AN END. N-NW WIND 15
TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT.
.TUESDAY...VFR.
.WEDNESDAY...VFR. A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOCALLY MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS.
.THURSDAY...VFR. NW GUSTS 20 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA HAS BEEN CANCELLED ACROSS LONG ISLAND SOUND...PECONIC AND
GARDINERS BAYS...AND THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS AS WIND GUSTS HAVE
DIMINISHED TO LESS THAN 25 KT IN THESE AREAS.

SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR ALL OTHER MARINE ZONES FOR THE REST
OF THE NIGHT WITH A GRADUALLY DIMINISHING NW FLOW. 5 TO 9 FT SEAS
WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 5 FT DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

TRANQUIL CONDS ON THE WATERS SUN AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVERHEAD AND
DEPARTS. CONDS RAMP UP TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE. A FEW
GALE GUSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A MARGINAL GALE EVENT MON NIGHT ON THE
BACKSIDE OF DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE LIFTING UP INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. WINDS AND SEAS ARE THEN FORECAST TO SUBSIDE BELOW SCA
LEVELS ON TUE WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE WATERS.
MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN WATERS WED IN A
PRE-FRONTAL SW FLOW...AND THEN IN THE NW POST-FRONTAL FLOW ON THU.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GENERALLY 1 TO 1 1/2 INCHES OF LIQUID FORECAST WITH THE SYSTEM
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. MOST OF THIS WILL BE SNOW AND SLEET
ACROSS NE NJ...LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND CT.

ACROSS LI/NYC THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF HEAVY
RAIN...WITH SOME MODELS SIGNALING UP TO 2 INCHES OF QPF.
ALTHOUGH THIS POTENTIAL IS LOW...IF MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE
NORTH...THIS POTENTIAL WOULD INCREASE...RESULTING IN URBAN
FLOODING ISSUES.

NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PCPN IS FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING THRESHOLDS
BEING REACHED WITH THE MONDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLE ALONG THE
WESTERN SOUTH SHORE BAYS AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF LI SOUND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR CTZ011-012.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     CTZ005>010.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ071>075-078>081-176>179.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     NYZ067>070.
NJ...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NJZ004-006-104>108.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     NJZ002-103.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ338.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NV/DW
NEAR TERM...JP/NV/DW
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JP/NV/DW
HYDROLOGY...NV/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...










000
FXUS61 KOKX 010258
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
958 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TONIGHT...BEFORE A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND CROSSES ON SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY AND PASSES JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND MONDAY. THE
LOW TRACKS WELL TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN ITS PLACE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL LARGELY PREVAIL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
LATE WEDNESDAY. A DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE GULF COAST STATES LATE
IN THE WEEK LOOKS TO TAKE A TRACK WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MINOR CHANGES MADE TO REFLECT CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...OTHERWISE
FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

NEAR ZONAL FLOW TONIGHT WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
WEST THIS EVENING...AND THEN A POLAR FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
GREAT LAKES.

WINDS AND GUSTS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH MIDNIGHT...WITH INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.

TEMPS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS COLD WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
TEENS...EXCEPT 20S NYC/NJ METRO...WITH NEUTRAL TEMPS ADVECTION AND
LIMITED OPPORTUNITY FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. COULD SEE SOME SINGLE
DIGITS IN PINE BARRENS AND INTERIOR TRI-STATE WITH DECOUPLING BEFORE
CLOUDS MOVE IN.

PHASING NORTHERN STREAM AND SW US SHORTWAVE ENERGY BEGINS TO DIG
INTO THE CENTRAL US ON SUNDAY WITH GENERALLY WSW UPPER FLOW.

A WEAKENING POLAR FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION ON SUNDAY...BUT
OTHERWISE INCREASING AND LOWERING CLOUDS AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING
STORM SYSTEM. A FEW SNOW FLAKES MAY BE OBSERVED OVER NJ VERY LATE IN
THE DAY. TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAIN STORY WILL BE NEXT IN A SERIES OF WINTER STORMS AFFECTING THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH LOW PRESSURE TAKING SHAPE
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN TONIGHT...TRACKING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON
SUNDAY AND THEN JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. OVERALL
TREND HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH AND WETTER WITH THIS SYSTEM.

BASED ON COUPLED JET STRUCTURE...TIGHT LOW /MID-LEVEL THERMAL
STRUCTURE...AND GULF MOISTURE FEED OF 2-3 STD PWATS...CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH IN AT LEAST A 3/4 TO 1 1/2 INCH QPF EVENT FOR THE ENTIRE
AREA. THIS IS BORNE OUT IN SREF/GEFS/CMCE 1 INCH/24 HR QPF PROBS.

SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY LIES IN P-TYPE...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE
COAST...WITH A SPREAD OF ABOUT 50 MILES BETWEEN OPERATIONAL
SOLUTIONS AND ENSEMBLE MEANS IN HOW CLOSE TO THE COAST THE LOW
GETS AND THE POSITION OF THE TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION. SBU ENSEMBLE SENSITIVITY SHOWING THIS N/S TRACK UNCERTAINTY
IN THE 00Z GEFS/CMCE/ECMWF ENSEMBLES...WITH SENSITIVITY LYING IN
DEGREE OF PHASING/INTERACTION BETWEEN NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DROPPING DOWN THROUGH MONTANA AND THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW OVER
THE SW US...AND RESULTANT STRENGTH OF TROUGH APPROACHING THE EAST
COAST SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AND UPSTREAM RIDGING. A STRONGER
TROUGH...MEANING MORE UPSTREAM RIDGING...AND A FURTHER NORTH
TRACK. THIS INTERACTION IS NOT COMPLETE FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS...SO
COULD TAKE UNTIL THEN FOR CONFIDENCE IN P-TYPE FORECAST INCREASES.

WITH CONFLUENT FLOW ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND/SE CANADA...ARCTIC
HIGH SHOULD BE LOCKED INTO THAT AREA. PREFER TIGHTER THERMAL
STRUCTURE ALOFT OF NAM/ECMWF/CAN VERSUS MORE DIFFUSE THERMAL
STRUCTURE OF GFS IN THIS SITUATION...BUT QUESTION IS LOCATION OF
THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE. MODEL SOLUTIONS POINTING TO DIFFERING
DEGREES OF WARMING IN THE 800-950 LAYER MON MORNING INTO EARLY
AFT...BUT TREND IS TOWARDS MORE WARMING.

WITH THIS SAID...NORTHWEST TIER OF THE TRI-STATE LOOKS TO BE
MAINLY SNOW. BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE IS FOR COAST...ESPECIALLY
NYC/NJ/LI...IN AMOUNT OF SLEET/FZRA/RA VERSUS SNOW. 12Z GFS/GEFS
ARE FURTHER NORTH WITH LOW TRACK...JUST SOUTH OF LI MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH WOULD IMPLY MORE IN THE WAY OF WARMING
ALOFT...AND MORE IN WAY MIXING WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN AND
EVEN RAIN FOR LI/NYC. 12Z GEM HAS TRENDED IN THAT DIRECTION AS
WELL. 12Z NAM...WOULD POINT TO MAINLY SNOW FOR CT AND LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY...WITH A MIX OF SIGNIFICANT SNOW/SLEET ACCUM FOR
NYC/LI/METRO NJ. 00Z ECMWF...IS SIMILARLY COLDER AND A BIT FARTHER
SOUTH AS WITH THE NAM. HAVE TAKEN A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD SOLUTION
BASED ON THE UNCERTAINTY...WITH A SLIGHTLY WETTER AND WARMER
FORECAST.

EVEN WITH CONTINUED NORTHWARD TREND...HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN
SIGNIFICANT SNOW/SLEET/ICE ACROSS INTERIOR NE NJ...AND MOST OF THE
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND CT. HAVE UPGRADED TO WARNING THERE FOR 5
TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW/SLEET AND UP TO 1/4 INCH OF ICE. INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND SW CT...MORE IN THE 8 TO 14
INCH RANGE WITH LESS ICE/SLEET.

EVEN FOR NYC/NJ METRO AND LI...COULD SEE A QUICK 3 TO 5 INCH
SNOWFALL ON THE FRONT END WITH SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE AND STRONG
LIFT LATE SUN NIGHT/EARLY MON MORNING BEFORE ANY MIXING. AFTER
CHANGEOVER...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF FZRA/SLEET (1/4 INCH OF ICE)
POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN HALF OF LI/NYC AND NE NJ...WITH COLD AIR
DRAINAGE DOWN THE RIVER VALLEYS. HAVE MAINTAINED A WATCH HERE WITH
UNCERTAINTY IF WE CHANGEOVER TO MORE RAIN...PARTICULARLY FOR SOUTH
COASTAL AREAS. THE ONE ASPECT TO KEEP IN MIND IS IF COASTAL AREAS
DO GO OVER TO RAIN...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR URBAN FLOODING ISSUES.
SEE HYDROLOGY SECTION FOR MORE INFO.

ANY RAIN/MIXED PRECIP SHOULD GRADUALLY CHANGE BACK TO SNOW FROM NW
TO SE MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVE. EVEN SOME SIGNAL OF DEFORMATION BANDING
ON THE BACKSIDE...WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW BACK DOWN TO THE COAST.
WITH COLD AIR CRASHING BACK DOWN TO THE COAST...POTENTIAL FOR
FLASH FREEZE CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY EVENING COMMUTE FOR CITY/COAST
IN WAKE OF A WASHING RAIN. SO TO SAY THE LEAST...A COMPLICATED
FORECAST FOR THE NYC/NJ METRO AND LONG ISLAND...WHICH COULD STILL
SEE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EVEN IF IT IS NOT ALL FROZEN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A BROAD UPPER TROF WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK
FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES OF WESTERN CANADA SE INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION. THIS WILL KEEP A STEADY STREAM OF POLAR AIR
MASSES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WITH GENERALLY UNSEASONABLY COLD
CONDITIONS. THIS SEASON HAS BEEN TYPIFIED BY THIS FLOW REGIME WITH
NO BLOCK OVER GREENLAND. OCCASIONALLY...A STRONG SHORT WAVE BRIEFLY
AMPLIFIES THE FLOW...BUT REMAINS PROGRESSIVE.

THE ONLY CHANCE FOR PCPN LOOKS TO BE WITH A POLAR COLD FRONT WED
INTO WED NIGHT...WHICH WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SCT SNOW SNOW SHOWERS.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED WELL SOUTH AND EAST WITH A LATE WEEK COASTAL LOW
MOVING OUT OF THE GULF COAST STATES. THUS...HAVE TRENDED DOWN TO THE
POINT WHERE THERE IS NO MENTION OF PCPN LATE IN THE WEEK.
INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH THOUGH...MODELS HAVE BEEN WAVERING BACK AND
FORTH WITH THESE SYSTEMS...SO PERHAPS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE
WOODS.

THE ONLY DAY OF THE WEEK THAT LOOKS TO BE NEAR NORMAL WITH RESPECT
TO TEMPS IS WED AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
  **HIGH IMPACT EVENT SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY**

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING WEAKENS TONIGHT AS A
WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE APPROACH. THE WARM FRONT WILL
BE IN THE VICINITY BY 00Z MONDAY. LIGHT SNOW WILL BE DEVELOPING LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON MAINLY WEST OF THE NYC TERMINALS...AND BECOME
LIKELY AROUND 00Z MONDAY WITH CONDITIONS LOWERING TO IFR. THERE IS
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE TIMING OF THE BEGINNING OF THE
SNOW.

GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND SUBSIDE BY 03Z WITH THE WIND BECOMING MORE
WESTERLY...GENERALLY UNDER 10 KT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...HIGH IMPACT PERIOD. IFR HIGHLY LIKELY AS SNOW
DEVELOPS SUNDAY EVENING...THEN CONTINUES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. A
WINTRY MIX OF  SLEET...SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN BECOMES LIKELY EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AT THE NYC METRO TERMINALS AND ACROSS LONG ISLAND.
THE WINTRY MIX PUSHES FARTHER NORTH DURING MONDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUES INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE GOING BACK TO ALL SNOW BEFORE
ENDING MONDAY EVENING.
.MONDAY NIGHT...BECOMING VFR AS SNOW COMES TO AN END. N-NW WIND 15
TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT.
.TUESDAY...VFR.
.WEDNESDAY...VFR. A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOCALLY MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS.
.THURSDAY...VFR. NW GUSTS 20 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA HAS BEEN CANCELLED ACROSS LONG ISLAND SOUND...PECONIC AND
GARDINERS BAYS...AND THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS AS WIND GUSTS HAVE
DIMINISHED TO LESS THAN 25 KT IN THESE AREAS.

SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR ALL OTHER MARINE ZONES FOR THE REST
OF THE NIGHT WITH A GRADUALLY DIMINISHING NW FLOW. 5 TO 9 FT SEAS
WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 5 FT DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

TRANQUIL CONDS ON THE WATERS SUN AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVERHEAD AND
DEPARTS. CONDS RAMP UP TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE. A FEW
GALE GUSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A MARGINAL GALE EVENT MON NIGHT ON THE
BACKSIDE OF DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE LIFTING UP INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. WINDS AND SEAS ARE THEN FORECAST TO SUBSIDE BELOW SCA
LEVELS ON TUE WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE WATERS.
MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN WATERS WED IN A
PRE-FRONTAL SW FLOW...AND THEN IN THE NW POST-FRONTAL FLOW ON THU.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GENERALLY 1 TO 1 1/2 INCHES OF LIQUID FORECAST WITH THE SYSTEM
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. MOST OF THIS WILL BE SNOW AND SLEET
ACROSS NE NJ...LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND CT.

ACROSS LI/NYC THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF HEAVY
RAIN...WITH SOME MODELS SIGNALING UP TO 2 INCHES OF QPF.
ALTHOUGH THIS POTENTIAL IS LOW...IF MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE
NORTH...THIS POTENTIAL WOULD INCREASE...RESULTING IN URBAN
FLOODING ISSUES.

NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PCPN IS FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING THRESHOLDS
BEING REACHED WITH THE MONDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLE ALONG THE
WESTERN SOUTH SHORE BAYS AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF LI SOUND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR CTZ011-012.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     CTZ005>010.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ071>075-078>081-176>179.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     NYZ067>070.
NJ...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NJZ004-006-104>108.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     NJZ002-103.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ338.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NV/DW
NEAR TERM...JP/NV/DW
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JP/NV/DW
HYDROLOGY...NV/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...









000
FXUS61 KBOX 010240
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
940 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BLUSTERY AND VERY COLD CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW. A
MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT THE REGION VERY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY EVENING WITH HEAVY SNOW FOR MANY LOCATIONS. BITTERLY
COLD WIND CHILLS FOLLOW LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
MODERATING TEMPS WEDNESDAY THEN VERY COLD CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. A COASTAL STORM WILL PASS WELL SOUTH
OF NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE WEEK BUT WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
930 PM UPDATE...

SFC RIDGE ACROSS NEW YORK STATE COLLAPSES TOWARD THE MID ATLC
COAST OVERNIGHT AS ARCTIC FRONT APPROACHES CANADIAN BORDER. SKIES
ARE CLEAR BUT SOME LOWER CLOUDS IN EASTERN NY MAY DRIFT INTO
WESTERN NEW ENG OVERNIGHT. STILL GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE COAST BUT
TREND WILL BE FOR DIMINISHING WIND OVERNIGHT. WHERE WINDS HAVE
DECOUPLED TEMPS HAVE ALREADY FALLEN TO NEAR ZERO. CURRENTLY 1 AT
ORE. EXPECT SUBZERO TEMPS NW MA WITH SINGLE NUMBERS ELSEWHERE AWAY
FROM THE COAST. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH WIND ALONG THE COAST TO KEEP
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID TEENS.

TOMORROW...

850MB ARCTIC FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TOMORROW. HOWEVER
TEMPS WILL BE WARMER THAN TODAY AS 925 MB TEMPS JUMP FROM -13C TO
-8C. EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE MID 20S TO PERHAPS THE LOW 30S
ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN. MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY WHICH WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER.
OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE CALMER AND DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAJOR WINTER STORM VERY LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON EVENING
* HEAVY SNOWFALL EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE REGION
* BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY SNOWFALL AMTS NEAR SOUTH COAST - PTYPE ISSUES
* BITTERLY COLD AIR LATE MON NIGHT - WIND CHILLS 15 TO 25 BELOW ZERO

DETAILS...

A MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND VERY LATE SUN
NIGHT INTO MONDAY EVENING.  ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA WILL COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
THE RESULT WILL BE STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER RUNNING THE
ARCTIC DOME AT THE SURFACE.  THEN AS THE LOW DEEPENS...MUCH OF THE
REGION WILL SEE SNOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM.  BIGGEST
UNCERTAINTY IS HOW MUCH OF THE REGION TRANSITIONS TO A PERIOD OF
MIXED PTYPE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE EVENT...CUTTING DOWN ON
POSSIBLE SNOW ACCUMS.

1) TIMING AND UNCERTAINTY

SNOW WILL LIKELY ARRIVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST VERY LATE SUN
EVENING IN OUR WESTERN ZONES AND AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE REST OF
THE REGION.  EXTREMELY TIGHT MID LEVEL THERMAL PACKING WILL ALLOW
SNOW TO QUICKLY BECOME HEAVY.  SNOW WILL FALL HEAVY MONDAY MORNING
AT 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR AND SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT THE AM RUSH HOUR.

THINGS THEN BECOME MORE UNCERTAIN LATER IN THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.  THE GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN SURGING WARM MID LEVEL AIR
TO THE MA PIKE...RESULTING IN A CHANGE TO A PERIOD OF SLEET/FREEZING
RAIN AND EVEN PLAIN RAIN ALONG THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.
THE NAM/ECMWF/GGEM APPEAR THE COLDEST KEEPING MOST AREAS HEAVY
SNOW...EXCEPT FOR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.  THE UKMET APPEARS TO BE IN
BETWEEN THE OTHER SOLUTIONS.  GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WILL BLEND THE
MODELS.  RIGHT NOW WERE THINKING TRANSITION AREA MAY GET BRIEFLY
NEAR OR PERHAPS JUST NORTH OF THE THE TAUNTON TO PROVIDENCE
CORRIDOR...BEFORE COLLAPSING SOUTHEAST.

REGARDLESS HOW FAR NORTH THE TRANSITION LINE GETS...MOST AREAS WILL
CHANGE BACK TO SNOW MON EVENING.  GIVEN CLOSED MID LEVEL CENTERS AND
VERY COLD NORTHEAST FLOW...COULD BE SOME OCEAN ENHANCEMENT ACROSS
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND FOR A TIME BEFORE SNOW ENDS.  BULK OF SNOW
SHOULD WIND DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT ALTHOUGH THE GGEM IS A BIT SLOWER.

2) SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS AND HEADLINES

WE ARE PRETTY CONFIDENT IN A HEAVY SNOWFALL FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION...EXCEPT FOR AREAS NEAR THE SOUTH COAST WHERE PTYPE ISSUES
MAYBE MORE PROBLEMATIC.  8 TO 14 INCHES EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION.  HAVE UPGRADED ALL AREAS FROM PROVIDENCE TO TAUNTON
NORTHWARD TO WINTER STORM WARNING/S WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON CRITERIA
BEING MET.  AREAS SOUTHEAST OF THAT LINE...THERE IS SOME MORE
UNCERTAINTY ESP CAPE/ISLANDS.  IF A LOT OF MIXING OCCURS THESE AREAS
MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH WARNING CRITERIA...BUT ITS STILL CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON MODEL TRENDS.  THEREFORE...WE HAVE HELD THE
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTH COAST AND THE ISLANDS.

3) STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW

NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 50 MPH EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS STORM INTENSIFIES AND PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES.  THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN POOR VISIBILITY ALONG WITH
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.  ITS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW LOCATIONS ALONG
THE COAST COULD SEE NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FOR A VERY SHORT
TIME...BUT STORM DOESN/T SEEM TO WARRANT THOSE TYPE OF HEADLINES.

4) BITTERLY COLD AIR MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

TEMPS WILL LIKELY PLUNGE BELOW ZERO TO 5 ABOVE ZERO IN MANY
LOCATIONS BY EARLY TUE MORNING.  THIS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS
VALUES BETWEEN 15 AND 25 BELOW ZERO. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* COLD PATTERN CONTINUES THRU NEXT WEEKEND
* CLIPPER LOW APPEARING MORE LIKELY THAN COASTAL LOW WED/THU

GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG 12Z DETERMINISTIC...12Z GEFS AND 00Z ECENS
ENSEMBLES THAT THE POLAR JET WILL DOMINATE THE NORTHERN TIER STATES
INCLUDING NEW ENGLAND THIS PERIOD. THIS COMBINED WITH STREAMS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNPHASED WILL SUPPORT MAINLY DRY WEATHER THIS
PERIOD. ONE CAVEAT WILL BE CLIPPER LOW ENTERING THE NORTHEAST
WED/WED NIGHT. EARLIER MODEL RUNS SUGGESTED SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT SOUTHWEST OF NEW ENGLAND...WITH
POSSIBLE COASTAL-OCEAN STORM IMPACTING OUR REGION AROUND THU.
HOWEVER LATEST GUID INCLUDING ENSEMBLES SUGGEST MID LEVEL TROUGH
WILL LACK SUFFICIENT AMPLITUDE TO BACK THE FLOW FOR A SECONDARY LOW
TO IMPACT THE REGION. THEREFORE LEANING TOWARD A MORE OFFSHORE TRACK
AND JUST A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE WED/WED NIGHT. HOWEVER AT
THIS TIME RANGE CAN/T BE TOO DETERMINISTIC. THUS WON`T TOTALLY
DISCOUNT CLOSER SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT.

AS FOR TEMPS...BITTERLY COLD TUE BEHIND DEPARTING MON NGT COASTAL
LOW. THEN COLD EASES WED AHEAD OF APPROACHING CLIPPER LOW FOLLOWED
BUT YET ANOTHER ARCTIC BLAST LATE IN THE WEEK BEHIND THE CLIPPER. AS
FOR INTO NEXT WEEKEND ENSEMBLE TRENDS SUGGEST TEMPS COLDER THAN
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM.../THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...VFR WITH GRADUAL DIMINISHING WIND.

SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR...BUT LOW PROB FOR AREAS OF MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.  VFR SUNDAY EVENING DETERIORATES TO IFR-LIFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW BY DAYBREAK MON AND CONTINUES
AT TIMES INTO MONDAY EVENING.  PTYPE MAY TRANSITION TO A PERIOD OF
SLEET/FREEZING RAIN/RAIN SOUTH OF MA TURNPIKE.  NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS
OF 30 TO 45 KNOTS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST LATER MON INTO MON
EVENING.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR ON
TUESDAY. COULD SEE SOME MVFR CIGS IN SCT SNOW SHOWERS ON
WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW RISK OF MVFR
ALONG SOUTHEAST MASS DEPENDING ON TRACK OF CLIPPER LOW.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...STRONG LOW PRESSURE PULLS FARTHER AWAY WITH WINDS
DIMINISHING BELOW GALE AFTER 06Z...BUT GUSTS 25-30 KT WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY LIKELY
CONTINUING...ESPECIALLY E MA COASTAL WATERS.

SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGHOUT THE DAY BUT EXPECT SCA
WAVES TO REMAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY WILL
PERSIST.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

***STRONG GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS/HIGH SEAS AND THE RISK OF HEAVY
  FREEZING SPRAY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT***

WINDS/SEAS QUICKLY RAMP UP VERY LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON AS LOW
PRESSURE INTENSIFIES NEAR THE SOUTH COAST. GALE WATCHES ISSUED FOR
EXPECTED 40+ KNOT NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS BY MON MORNING.
SEAS BUILD TO 15+ FEET ACROSS OUR EASTERN WATERS BY LATE MON
AFTERNOON/EVENING. IN ADDITION...BITTERLY COLD AIR MOVING OVER THE
WATERS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. HAVE ALSO ISSUED A FREEZING SPRAY WATCH.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE TO HIGH FORECAST
CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY...NW GALES LIKELY ALONG WITH FREEZING SPRAY...POSSIBLY
MODERATE TO HEAVY. MAINLY DRY WITH GOOD VSBY EXCEPT FAR OFFSHORE
WHERE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE COMMON.

WED...WINDS EASE AND BECOME SOUTHWEST AS CLIPPER LOW ENTERS THE
GREAT LAKES AND NY STATE. NOT AS COLD SO FREEZING SPRAY UNLIKELY.
VSBY MAY BRIEFLY LOWER IN A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW.

THU...ARCTIC FRONT WITH NW GALES BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE. MODERATE TO
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY POSSIBLE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
*** MINOR TO PERHAPS ISOLATED AREAS OF MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING
  POSSIBLE MON/MON NIGHT EASTERN MA COASTLINE ***

GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON SURFACE LOW TRACKING SOMEWHERE BETWEEN
NANTUCKET AND THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK WITH NAM THE FASTEST AND GFS
FARTHEST NORTHWEST. ECMWF SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE. MODEL CONSENSUS
BRINGS STRONGEST ONSHORE WINDS BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z...CLOSE TO LOW
TIDE. IF THIS TIMING HOLDS UP WORST CASE SCENARIO WOULD BE MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING.

THE FIRST TIDE CYCLE OF CONCERN IS THE MONDAY MID MORNING. HOWEVER
ALL WAVE GUID SUGGEST SEAS LESS THAN 10 FT AT HIGH TIDE GIVEN
ARRIVAL OF STRONGEST WINDS LATER DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS ALSO
YIELDS SURGE VALUES OF A FOOT OR LESS.

AS FOR THE MONDAY EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE...ASTRO TIDES ARE ABOUT A
1 FT LOWER. HOWEVER A STORM SURGE OF 1.5 TO 2.5 FT IS POSSIBLE.
ESTOFS AND ETSS ARE LOWER...SO I BLENDED THE TWO GUID SOURCES AND
ADDED 50 PERCENT TO COME UP WITH SURGE VALUES OF 1.5 TO 2.5 FT. IN
ADDITION...SEAS WILL LIKELY BUILD TO 15 TO 20 FT DURING THE EVENING
HIGH TIDE. ALL OF THESE FACTORS YIELD A MODERATE RISK OF MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING WITH A LOW RISK OF ISOLATED MODERATE FLOODING.

WHILE WINDS...SEAS AND STORM SURGE WILL BE LESS THAN THE PREVIOUS
COASTAL STORM THERE COULD STILL BE SOME MODEST IMPACT ESPECIALLY FOR
THOSE COMMUNITIES SUCH AS MARSHFIELD MA THAT WERE HIT HARD EARLIER
THIS WEEK WHERE COASTAL STRUCTURES SUCH AS SEAWALLS WERE DAMAGED.
GIVEN THE LOW TRACK IS CLOSE TO NANTUCKET THE GREATEST RISK OF
COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE FARTHER NORTHWARD FROM CAPE COD TO CAPE ANN
WITH PERHAPS THE HIGHEST RISK FROM HULL/COHASSET/SCITUATE/
MARSHFIELD/PLYMOUTH TO SANDWICH HARBOR.
/DUXBURY

GIVEN IT APPEARS MARGINAL FOR SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING AND STILL
48-60 HRS OUT IN TIME WILL HOLD OFF ON A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WITH EXTREMELY COLD AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW MONDAY
NIGHT...TEMPERATURES MAY FALL BACK CLOSE TO OR SURPASSING RECORD
LEVELS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AND THAT IS NOT TAKING INTO ACCOUNT
THE STRONG WINDS.

HERE ARE THE RECORD LOWS FOR TUESDAY 2/3...

BOSTON         -5 SET IN 1881
PROVIDENCE     -6 SET IN 1961
WORCESTER      -7 SET IN 1931, 1955 AND 1971
WINDSOR LOCKS  -3 SET IN 1955
BLUE HILL OBS  -7 SET IN 1955

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR MAZ020>024.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     MAZ002>019-026.
RI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR RIZ005>008.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     RIZ001>004.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ231>235-237.
     HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR ANZ231>235-237-250-251-254>256.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ231-232-
     250-251-254-255.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ231-232-250-251-254-
     255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ233>235-237-
     256.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ233>235-
     237.
     GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ230-236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ230-236.
     GALE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ250-251-254>256.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/NOCERA/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...KJC/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...FRANK/DUNTEN
MARINE...FRANK/NOCERA/DUNTEN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NOCERA
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 010240
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
940 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BLUSTERY AND VERY COLD CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW. A
MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT THE REGION VERY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY EVENING WITH HEAVY SNOW FOR MANY LOCATIONS. BITTERLY
COLD WIND CHILLS FOLLOW LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
MODERATING TEMPS WEDNESDAY THEN VERY COLD CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. A COASTAL STORM WILL PASS WELL SOUTH
OF NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE WEEK BUT WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
930 PM UPDATE...

SFC RIDGE ACROSS NEW YORK STATE COLLAPSES TOWARD THE MID ATLC
COAST OVERNIGHT AS ARCTIC FRONT APPROACHES CANADIAN BORDER. SKIES
ARE CLEAR BUT SOME LOWER CLOUDS IN EASTERN NY MAY DRIFT INTO
WESTERN NEW ENG OVERNIGHT. STILL GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE COAST BUT
TREND WILL BE FOR DIMINISHING WIND OVERNIGHT. WHERE WINDS HAVE
DECOUPLED TEMPS HAVE ALREADY FALLEN TO NEAR ZERO. CURRENTLY 1 AT
ORE. EXPECT SUBZERO TEMPS NW MA WITH SINGLE NUMBERS ELSEWHERE AWAY
FROM THE COAST. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH WIND ALONG THE COAST TO KEEP
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID TEENS.

TOMORROW...

850MB ARCTIC FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TOMORROW. HOWEVER
TEMPS WILL BE WARMER THAN TODAY AS 925 MB TEMPS JUMP FROM -13C TO
-8C. EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE MID 20S TO PERHAPS THE LOW 30S
ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN. MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY WHICH WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER.
OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE CALMER AND DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAJOR WINTER STORM VERY LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON EVENING
* HEAVY SNOWFALL EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE REGION
* BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY SNOWFALL AMTS NEAR SOUTH COAST - PTYPE ISSUES
* BITTERLY COLD AIR LATE MON NIGHT - WIND CHILLS 15 TO 25 BELOW ZERO

DETAILS...

A MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND VERY LATE SUN
NIGHT INTO MONDAY EVENING.  ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA WILL COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
THE RESULT WILL BE STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER RUNNING THE
ARCTIC DOME AT THE SURFACE.  THEN AS THE LOW DEEPENS...MUCH OF THE
REGION WILL SEE SNOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM.  BIGGEST
UNCERTAINTY IS HOW MUCH OF THE REGION TRANSITIONS TO A PERIOD OF
MIXED PTYPE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE EVENT...CUTTING DOWN ON
POSSIBLE SNOW ACCUMS.

1) TIMING AND UNCERTAINTY

SNOW WILL LIKELY ARRIVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST VERY LATE SUN
EVENING IN OUR WESTERN ZONES AND AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE REST OF
THE REGION.  EXTREMELY TIGHT MID LEVEL THERMAL PACKING WILL ALLOW
SNOW TO QUICKLY BECOME HEAVY.  SNOW WILL FALL HEAVY MONDAY MORNING
AT 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR AND SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT THE AM RUSH HOUR.

THINGS THEN BECOME MORE UNCERTAIN LATER IN THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.  THE GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN SURGING WARM MID LEVEL AIR
TO THE MA PIKE...RESULTING IN A CHANGE TO A PERIOD OF SLEET/FREEZING
RAIN AND EVEN PLAIN RAIN ALONG THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.
THE NAM/ECMWF/GGEM APPEAR THE COLDEST KEEPING MOST AREAS HEAVY
SNOW...EXCEPT FOR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.  THE UKMET APPEARS TO BE IN
BETWEEN THE OTHER SOLUTIONS.  GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WILL BLEND THE
MODELS.  RIGHT NOW WERE THINKING TRANSITION AREA MAY GET BRIEFLY
NEAR OR PERHAPS JUST NORTH OF THE THE TAUNTON TO PROVIDENCE
CORRIDOR...BEFORE COLLAPSING SOUTHEAST.

REGARDLESS HOW FAR NORTH THE TRANSITION LINE GETS...MOST AREAS WILL
CHANGE BACK TO SNOW MON EVENING.  GIVEN CLOSED MID LEVEL CENTERS AND
VERY COLD NORTHEAST FLOW...COULD BE SOME OCEAN ENHANCEMENT ACROSS
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND FOR A TIME BEFORE SNOW ENDS.  BULK OF SNOW
SHOULD WIND DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT ALTHOUGH THE GGEM IS A BIT SLOWER.

2) SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS AND HEADLINES

WE ARE PRETTY CONFIDENT IN A HEAVY SNOWFALL FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION...EXCEPT FOR AREAS NEAR THE SOUTH COAST WHERE PTYPE ISSUES
MAYBE MORE PROBLEMATIC.  8 TO 14 INCHES EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION.  HAVE UPGRADED ALL AREAS FROM PROVIDENCE TO TAUNTON
NORTHWARD TO WINTER STORM WARNING/S WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON CRITERIA
BEING MET.  AREAS SOUTHEAST OF THAT LINE...THERE IS SOME MORE
UNCERTAINTY ESP CAPE/ISLANDS.  IF A LOT OF MIXING OCCURS THESE AREAS
MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH WARNING CRITERIA...BUT ITS STILL CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON MODEL TRENDS.  THEREFORE...WE HAVE HELD THE
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTH COAST AND THE ISLANDS.

3) STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW

NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 50 MPH EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS STORM INTENSIFIES AND PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES.  THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN POOR VISIBILITY ALONG WITH
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.  ITS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW LOCATIONS ALONG
THE COAST COULD SEE NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FOR A VERY SHORT
TIME...BUT STORM DOESN/T SEEM TO WARRANT THOSE TYPE OF HEADLINES.

4) BITTERLY COLD AIR MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

TEMPS WILL LIKELY PLUNGE BELOW ZERO TO 5 ABOVE ZERO IN MANY
LOCATIONS BY EARLY TUE MORNING.  THIS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS
VALUES BETWEEN 15 AND 25 BELOW ZERO. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* COLD PATTERN CONTINUES THRU NEXT WEEKEND
* CLIPPER LOW APPEARING MORE LIKELY THAN COASTAL LOW WED/THU

GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG 12Z DETERMINISTIC...12Z GEFS AND 00Z ECENS
ENSEMBLES THAT THE POLAR JET WILL DOMINATE THE NORTHERN TIER STATES
INCLUDING NEW ENGLAND THIS PERIOD. THIS COMBINED WITH STREAMS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNPHASED WILL SUPPORT MAINLY DRY WEATHER THIS
PERIOD. ONE CAVEAT WILL BE CLIPPER LOW ENTERING THE NORTHEAST
WED/WED NIGHT. EARLIER MODEL RUNS SUGGESTED SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT SOUTHWEST OF NEW ENGLAND...WITH
POSSIBLE COASTAL-OCEAN STORM IMPACTING OUR REGION AROUND THU.
HOWEVER LATEST GUID INCLUDING ENSEMBLES SUGGEST MID LEVEL TROUGH
WILL LACK SUFFICIENT AMPLITUDE TO BACK THE FLOW FOR A SECONDARY LOW
TO IMPACT THE REGION. THEREFORE LEANING TOWARD A MORE OFFSHORE TRACK
AND JUST A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE WED/WED NIGHT. HOWEVER AT
THIS TIME RANGE CAN/T BE TOO DETERMINISTIC. THUS WON`T TOTALLY
DISCOUNT CLOSER SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT.

AS FOR TEMPS...BITTERLY COLD TUE BEHIND DEPARTING MON NGT COASTAL
LOW. THEN COLD EASES WED AHEAD OF APPROACHING CLIPPER LOW FOLLOWED
BUT YET ANOTHER ARCTIC BLAST LATE IN THE WEEK BEHIND THE CLIPPER. AS
FOR INTO NEXT WEEKEND ENSEMBLE TRENDS SUGGEST TEMPS COLDER THAN
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM.../THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...VFR WITH GRADUAL DIMINISHING WIND.

SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR...BUT LOW PROB FOR AREAS OF MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.  VFR SUNDAY EVENING DETERIORATES TO IFR-LIFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW BY DAYBREAK MON AND CONTINUES
AT TIMES INTO MONDAY EVENING.  PTYPE MAY TRANSITION TO A PERIOD OF
SLEET/FREEZING RAIN/RAIN SOUTH OF MA TURNPIKE.  NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS
OF 30 TO 45 KNOTS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST LATER MON INTO MON
EVENING.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR ON
TUESDAY. COULD SEE SOME MVFR CIGS IN SCT SNOW SHOWERS ON
WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW RISK OF MVFR
ALONG SOUTHEAST MASS DEPENDING ON TRACK OF CLIPPER LOW.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...STRONG LOW PRESSURE PULLS FARTHER AWAY WITH WINDS
DIMINISHING BELOW GALE AFTER 06Z...BUT GUSTS 25-30 KT WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY LIKELY
CONTINUING...ESPECIALLY E MA COASTAL WATERS.

SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGHOUT THE DAY BUT EXPECT SCA
WAVES TO REMAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY WILL
PERSIST.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

***STRONG GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS/HIGH SEAS AND THE RISK OF HEAVY
  FREEZING SPRAY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT***

WINDS/SEAS QUICKLY RAMP UP VERY LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON AS LOW
PRESSURE INTENSIFIES NEAR THE SOUTH COAST. GALE WATCHES ISSUED FOR
EXPECTED 40+ KNOT NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS BY MON MORNING.
SEAS BUILD TO 15+ FEET ACROSS OUR EASTERN WATERS BY LATE MON
AFTERNOON/EVENING. IN ADDITION...BITTERLY COLD AIR MOVING OVER THE
WATERS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. HAVE ALSO ISSUED A FREEZING SPRAY WATCH.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE TO HIGH FORECAST
CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY...NW GALES LIKELY ALONG WITH FREEZING SPRAY...POSSIBLY
MODERATE TO HEAVY. MAINLY DRY WITH GOOD VSBY EXCEPT FAR OFFSHORE
WHERE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE COMMON.

WED...WINDS EASE AND BECOME SOUTHWEST AS CLIPPER LOW ENTERS THE
GREAT LAKES AND NY STATE. NOT AS COLD SO FREEZING SPRAY UNLIKELY.
VSBY MAY BRIEFLY LOWER IN A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW.

THU...ARCTIC FRONT WITH NW GALES BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE. MODERATE TO
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY POSSIBLE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
*** MINOR TO PERHAPS ISOLATED AREAS OF MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING
  POSSIBLE MON/MON NIGHT EASTERN MA COASTLINE ***

GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON SURFACE LOW TRACKING SOMEWHERE BETWEEN
NANTUCKET AND THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK WITH NAM THE FASTEST AND GFS
FARTHEST NORTHWEST. ECMWF SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE. MODEL CONSENSUS
BRINGS STRONGEST ONSHORE WINDS BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z...CLOSE TO LOW
TIDE. IF THIS TIMING HOLDS UP WORST CASE SCENARIO WOULD BE MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING.

THE FIRST TIDE CYCLE OF CONCERN IS THE MONDAY MID MORNING. HOWEVER
ALL WAVE GUID SUGGEST SEAS LESS THAN 10 FT AT HIGH TIDE GIVEN
ARRIVAL OF STRONGEST WINDS LATER DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS ALSO
YIELDS SURGE VALUES OF A FOOT OR LESS.

AS FOR THE MONDAY EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE...ASTRO TIDES ARE ABOUT A
1 FT LOWER. HOWEVER A STORM SURGE OF 1.5 TO 2.5 FT IS POSSIBLE.
ESTOFS AND ETSS ARE LOWER...SO I BLENDED THE TWO GUID SOURCES AND
ADDED 50 PERCENT TO COME UP WITH SURGE VALUES OF 1.5 TO 2.5 FT. IN
ADDITION...SEAS WILL LIKELY BUILD TO 15 TO 20 FT DURING THE EVENING
HIGH TIDE. ALL OF THESE FACTORS YIELD A MODERATE RISK OF MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING WITH A LOW RISK OF ISOLATED MODERATE FLOODING.

WHILE WINDS...SEAS AND STORM SURGE WILL BE LESS THAN THE PREVIOUS
COASTAL STORM THERE COULD STILL BE SOME MODEST IMPACT ESPECIALLY FOR
THOSE COMMUNITIES SUCH AS MARSHFIELD MA THAT WERE HIT HARD EARLIER
THIS WEEK WHERE COASTAL STRUCTURES SUCH AS SEAWALLS WERE DAMAGED.
GIVEN THE LOW TRACK IS CLOSE TO NANTUCKET THE GREATEST RISK OF
COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE FARTHER NORTHWARD FROM CAPE COD TO CAPE ANN
WITH PERHAPS THE HIGHEST RISK FROM HULL/COHASSET/SCITUATE/
MARSHFIELD/PLYMOUTH TO SANDWICH HARBOR.
/DUXBURY

GIVEN IT APPEARS MARGINAL FOR SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING AND STILL
48-60 HRS OUT IN TIME WILL HOLD OFF ON A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WITH EXTREMELY COLD AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW MONDAY
NIGHT...TEMPERATURES MAY FALL BACK CLOSE TO OR SURPASSING RECORD
LEVELS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AND THAT IS NOT TAKING INTO ACCOUNT
THE STRONG WINDS.

HERE ARE THE RECORD LOWS FOR TUESDAY 2/3...

BOSTON         -5 SET IN 1881
PROVIDENCE     -6 SET IN 1961
WORCESTER      -7 SET IN 1931, 1955 AND 1971
WINDSOR LOCKS  -3 SET IN 1955
BLUE HILL OBS  -7 SET IN 1955

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR MAZ020>024.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     MAZ002>019-026.
RI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR RIZ005>008.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     RIZ001>004.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ231>235-237.
     HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR ANZ231>235-237-250-251-254>256.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ231-232-
     250-251-254-255.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ231-232-250-251-254-
     255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ233>235-237-
     256.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ233>235-
     237.
     GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ230-236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ230-236.
     GALE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ250-251-254>256.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/NOCERA/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...KJC/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...FRANK/DUNTEN
MARINE...FRANK/NOCERA/DUNTEN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NOCERA
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KBOX 010240
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
940 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BLUSTERY AND VERY COLD CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW. A
MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT THE REGION VERY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY EVENING WITH HEAVY SNOW FOR MANY LOCATIONS. BITTERLY
COLD WIND CHILLS FOLLOW LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
MODERATING TEMPS WEDNESDAY THEN VERY COLD CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. A COASTAL STORM WILL PASS WELL SOUTH
OF NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE WEEK BUT WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
930 PM UPDATE...

SFC RIDGE ACROSS NEW YORK STATE COLLAPSES TOWARD THE MID ATLC
COAST OVERNIGHT AS ARCTIC FRONT APPROACHES CANADIAN BORDER. SKIES
ARE CLEAR BUT SOME LOWER CLOUDS IN EASTERN NY MAY DRIFT INTO
WESTERN NEW ENG OVERNIGHT. STILL GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE COAST BUT
TREND WILL BE FOR DIMINISHING WIND OVERNIGHT. WHERE WINDS HAVE
DECOUPLED TEMPS HAVE ALREADY FALLEN TO NEAR ZERO. CURRENTLY 1 AT
ORE. EXPECT SUBZERO TEMPS NW MA WITH SINGLE NUMBERS ELSEWHERE AWAY
FROM THE COAST. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH WIND ALONG THE COAST TO KEEP
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID TEENS.

TOMORROW...

850MB ARCTIC FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TOMORROW. HOWEVER
TEMPS WILL BE WARMER THAN TODAY AS 925 MB TEMPS JUMP FROM -13C TO
-8C. EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE MID 20S TO PERHAPS THE LOW 30S
ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN. MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY WHICH WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER.
OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE CALMER AND DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAJOR WINTER STORM VERY LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON EVENING
* HEAVY SNOWFALL EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE REGION
* BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY SNOWFALL AMTS NEAR SOUTH COAST - PTYPE ISSUES
* BITTERLY COLD AIR LATE MON NIGHT - WIND CHILLS 15 TO 25 BELOW ZERO

DETAILS...

A MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND VERY LATE SUN
NIGHT INTO MONDAY EVENING.  ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA WILL COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
THE RESULT WILL BE STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER RUNNING THE
ARCTIC DOME AT THE SURFACE.  THEN AS THE LOW DEEPENS...MUCH OF THE
REGION WILL SEE SNOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM.  BIGGEST
UNCERTAINTY IS HOW MUCH OF THE REGION TRANSITIONS TO A PERIOD OF
MIXED PTYPE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE EVENT...CUTTING DOWN ON
POSSIBLE SNOW ACCUMS.

1) TIMING AND UNCERTAINTY

SNOW WILL LIKELY ARRIVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST VERY LATE SUN
EVENING IN OUR WESTERN ZONES AND AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE REST OF
THE REGION.  EXTREMELY TIGHT MID LEVEL THERMAL PACKING WILL ALLOW
SNOW TO QUICKLY BECOME HEAVY.  SNOW WILL FALL HEAVY MONDAY MORNING
AT 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR AND SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT THE AM RUSH HOUR.

THINGS THEN BECOME MORE UNCERTAIN LATER IN THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.  THE GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN SURGING WARM MID LEVEL AIR
TO THE MA PIKE...RESULTING IN A CHANGE TO A PERIOD OF SLEET/FREEZING
RAIN AND EVEN PLAIN RAIN ALONG THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.
THE NAM/ECMWF/GGEM APPEAR THE COLDEST KEEPING MOST AREAS HEAVY
SNOW...EXCEPT FOR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.  THE UKMET APPEARS TO BE IN
BETWEEN THE OTHER SOLUTIONS.  GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WILL BLEND THE
MODELS.  RIGHT NOW WERE THINKING TRANSITION AREA MAY GET BRIEFLY
NEAR OR PERHAPS JUST NORTH OF THE THE TAUNTON TO PROVIDENCE
CORRIDOR...BEFORE COLLAPSING SOUTHEAST.

REGARDLESS HOW FAR NORTH THE TRANSITION LINE GETS...MOST AREAS WILL
CHANGE BACK TO SNOW MON EVENING.  GIVEN CLOSED MID LEVEL CENTERS AND
VERY COLD NORTHEAST FLOW...COULD BE SOME OCEAN ENHANCEMENT ACROSS
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND FOR A TIME BEFORE SNOW ENDS.  BULK OF SNOW
SHOULD WIND DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT ALTHOUGH THE GGEM IS A BIT SLOWER.

2) SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS AND HEADLINES

WE ARE PRETTY CONFIDENT IN A HEAVY SNOWFALL FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION...EXCEPT FOR AREAS NEAR THE SOUTH COAST WHERE PTYPE ISSUES
MAYBE MORE PROBLEMATIC.  8 TO 14 INCHES EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION.  HAVE UPGRADED ALL AREAS FROM PROVIDENCE TO TAUNTON
NORTHWARD TO WINTER STORM WARNING/S WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON CRITERIA
BEING MET.  AREAS SOUTHEAST OF THAT LINE...THERE IS SOME MORE
UNCERTAINTY ESP CAPE/ISLANDS.  IF A LOT OF MIXING OCCURS THESE AREAS
MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH WARNING CRITERIA...BUT ITS STILL CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON MODEL TRENDS.  THEREFORE...WE HAVE HELD THE
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTH COAST AND THE ISLANDS.

3) STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW

NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 50 MPH EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS STORM INTENSIFIES AND PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES.  THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN POOR VISIBILITY ALONG WITH
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.  ITS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW LOCATIONS ALONG
THE COAST COULD SEE NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FOR A VERY SHORT
TIME...BUT STORM DOESN/T SEEM TO WARRANT THOSE TYPE OF HEADLINES.

4) BITTERLY COLD AIR MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

TEMPS WILL LIKELY PLUNGE BELOW ZERO TO 5 ABOVE ZERO IN MANY
LOCATIONS BY EARLY TUE MORNING.  THIS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS
VALUES BETWEEN 15 AND 25 BELOW ZERO. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* COLD PATTERN CONTINUES THRU NEXT WEEKEND
* CLIPPER LOW APPEARING MORE LIKELY THAN COASTAL LOW WED/THU

GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG 12Z DETERMINISTIC...12Z GEFS AND 00Z ECENS
ENSEMBLES THAT THE POLAR JET WILL DOMINATE THE NORTHERN TIER STATES
INCLUDING NEW ENGLAND THIS PERIOD. THIS COMBINED WITH STREAMS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNPHASED WILL SUPPORT MAINLY DRY WEATHER THIS
PERIOD. ONE CAVEAT WILL BE CLIPPER LOW ENTERING THE NORTHEAST
WED/WED NIGHT. EARLIER MODEL RUNS SUGGESTED SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT SOUTHWEST OF NEW ENGLAND...WITH
POSSIBLE COASTAL-OCEAN STORM IMPACTING OUR REGION AROUND THU.
HOWEVER LATEST GUID INCLUDING ENSEMBLES SUGGEST MID LEVEL TROUGH
WILL LACK SUFFICIENT AMPLITUDE TO BACK THE FLOW FOR A SECONDARY LOW
TO IMPACT THE REGION. THEREFORE LEANING TOWARD A MORE OFFSHORE TRACK
AND JUST A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE WED/WED NIGHT. HOWEVER AT
THIS TIME RANGE CAN/T BE TOO DETERMINISTIC. THUS WON`T TOTALLY
DISCOUNT CLOSER SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT.

AS FOR TEMPS...BITTERLY COLD TUE BEHIND DEPARTING MON NGT COASTAL
LOW. THEN COLD EASES WED AHEAD OF APPROACHING CLIPPER LOW FOLLOWED
BUT YET ANOTHER ARCTIC BLAST LATE IN THE WEEK BEHIND THE CLIPPER. AS
FOR INTO NEXT WEEKEND ENSEMBLE TRENDS SUGGEST TEMPS COLDER THAN
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM.../THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...VFR WITH GRADUAL DIMINISHING WIND.

SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR...BUT LOW PROB FOR AREAS OF MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.  VFR SUNDAY EVENING DETERIORATES TO IFR-LIFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW BY DAYBREAK MON AND CONTINUES
AT TIMES INTO MONDAY EVENING.  PTYPE MAY TRANSITION TO A PERIOD OF
SLEET/FREEZING RAIN/RAIN SOUTH OF MA TURNPIKE.  NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS
OF 30 TO 45 KNOTS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST LATER MON INTO MON
EVENING.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR ON
TUESDAY. COULD SEE SOME MVFR CIGS IN SCT SNOW SHOWERS ON
WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW RISK OF MVFR
ALONG SOUTHEAST MASS DEPENDING ON TRACK OF CLIPPER LOW.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...STRONG LOW PRESSURE PULLS FARTHER AWAY WITH WINDS
DIMINISHING BELOW GALE AFTER 06Z...BUT GUSTS 25-30 KT WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY LIKELY
CONTINUING...ESPECIALLY E MA COASTAL WATERS.

SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGHOUT THE DAY BUT EXPECT SCA
WAVES TO REMAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY WILL
PERSIST.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

***STRONG GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS/HIGH SEAS AND THE RISK OF HEAVY
  FREEZING SPRAY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT***

WINDS/SEAS QUICKLY RAMP UP VERY LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON AS LOW
PRESSURE INTENSIFIES NEAR THE SOUTH COAST. GALE WATCHES ISSUED FOR
EXPECTED 40+ KNOT NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS BY MON MORNING.
SEAS BUILD TO 15+ FEET ACROSS OUR EASTERN WATERS BY LATE MON
AFTERNOON/EVENING. IN ADDITION...BITTERLY COLD AIR MOVING OVER THE
WATERS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. HAVE ALSO ISSUED A FREEZING SPRAY WATCH.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE TO HIGH FORECAST
CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY...NW GALES LIKELY ALONG WITH FREEZING SPRAY...POSSIBLY
MODERATE TO HEAVY. MAINLY DRY WITH GOOD VSBY EXCEPT FAR OFFSHORE
WHERE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE COMMON.

WED...WINDS EASE AND BECOME SOUTHWEST AS CLIPPER LOW ENTERS THE
GREAT LAKES AND NY STATE. NOT AS COLD SO FREEZING SPRAY UNLIKELY.
VSBY MAY BRIEFLY LOWER IN A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW.

THU...ARCTIC FRONT WITH NW GALES BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE. MODERATE TO
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY POSSIBLE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
*** MINOR TO PERHAPS ISOLATED AREAS OF MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING
  POSSIBLE MON/MON NIGHT EASTERN MA COASTLINE ***

GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON SURFACE LOW TRACKING SOMEWHERE BETWEEN
NANTUCKET AND THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK WITH NAM THE FASTEST AND GFS
FARTHEST NORTHWEST. ECMWF SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE. MODEL CONSENSUS
BRINGS STRONGEST ONSHORE WINDS BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z...CLOSE TO LOW
TIDE. IF THIS TIMING HOLDS UP WORST CASE SCENARIO WOULD BE MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING.

THE FIRST TIDE CYCLE OF CONCERN IS THE MONDAY MID MORNING. HOWEVER
ALL WAVE GUID SUGGEST SEAS LESS THAN 10 FT AT HIGH TIDE GIVEN
ARRIVAL OF STRONGEST WINDS LATER DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS ALSO
YIELDS SURGE VALUES OF A FOOT OR LESS.

AS FOR THE MONDAY EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE...ASTRO TIDES ARE ABOUT A
1 FT LOWER. HOWEVER A STORM SURGE OF 1.5 TO 2.5 FT IS POSSIBLE.
ESTOFS AND ETSS ARE LOWER...SO I BLENDED THE TWO GUID SOURCES AND
ADDED 50 PERCENT TO COME UP WITH SURGE VALUES OF 1.5 TO 2.5 FT. IN
ADDITION...SEAS WILL LIKELY BUILD TO 15 TO 20 FT DURING THE EVENING
HIGH TIDE. ALL OF THESE FACTORS YIELD A MODERATE RISK OF MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING WITH A LOW RISK OF ISOLATED MODERATE FLOODING.

WHILE WINDS...SEAS AND STORM SURGE WILL BE LESS THAN THE PREVIOUS
COASTAL STORM THERE COULD STILL BE SOME MODEST IMPACT ESPECIALLY FOR
THOSE COMMUNITIES SUCH AS MARSHFIELD MA THAT WERE HIT HARD EARLIER
THIS WEEK WHERE COASTAL STRUCTURES SUCH AS SEAWALLS WERE DAMAGED.
GIVEN THE LOW TRACK IS CLOSE TO NANTUCKET THE GREATEST RISK OF
COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE FARTHER NORTHWARD FROM CAPE COD TO CAPE ANN
WITH PERHAPS THE HIGHEST RISK FROM HULL/COHASSET/SCITUATE/
MARSHFIELD/PLYMOUTH TO SANDWICH HARBOR.
/DUXBURY

GIVEN IT APPEARS MARGINAL FOR SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING AND STILL
48-60 HRS OUT IN TIME WILL HOLD OFF ON A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WITH EXTREMELY COLD AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW MONDAY
NIGHT...TEMPERATURES MAY FALL BACK CLOSE TO OR SURPASSING RECORD
LEVELS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AND THAT IS NOT TAKING INTO ACCOUNT
THE STRONG WINDS.

HERE ARE THE RECORD LOWS FOR TUESDAY 2/3...

BOSTON         -5 SET IN 1881
PROVIDENCE     -6 SET IN 1961
WORCESTER      -7 SET IN 1931, 1955 AND 1971
WINDSOR LOCKS  -3 SET IN 1955
BLUE HILL OBS  -7 SET IN 1955

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR MAZ020>024.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     MAZ002>019-026.
RI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR RIZ005>008.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     RIZ001>004.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ231>235-237.
     HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR ANZ231>235-237-250-251-254>256.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ231-232-
     250-251-254-255.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ231-232-250-251-254-
     255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ233>235-237-
     256.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ233>235-
     237.
     GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ230-236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ230-236.
     GALE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ250-251-254>256.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/NOCERA/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...KJC/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...FRANK/DUNTEN
MARINE...FRANK/NOCERA/DUNTEN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NOCERA
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KBOX 010240
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
940 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BLUSTERY AND VERY COLD CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW. A
MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT THE REGION VERY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY EVENING WITH HEAVY SNOW FOR MANY LOCATIONS. BITTERLY
COLD WIND CHILLS FOLLOW LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
MODERATING TEMPS WEDNESDAY THEN VERY COLD CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. A COASTAL STORM WILL PASS WELL SOUTH
OF NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE WEEK BUT WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
930 PM UPDATE...

SFC RIDGE ACROSS NEW YORK STATE COLLAPSES TOWARD THE MID ATLC
COAST OVERNIGHT AS ARCTIC FRONT APPROACHES CANADIAN BORDER. SKIES
ARE CLEAR BUT SOME LOWER CLOUDS IN EASTERN NY MAY DRIFT INTO
WESTERN NEW ENG OVERNIGHT. STILL GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE COAST BUT
TREND WILL BE FOR DIMINISHING WIND OVERNIGHT. WHERE WINDS HAVE
DECOUPLED TEMPS HAVE ALREADY FALLEN TO NEAR ZERO. CURRENTLY 1 AT
ORE. EXPECT SUBZERO TEMPS NW MA WITH SINGLE NUMBERS ELSEWHERE AWAY
FROM THE COAST. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH WIND ALONG THE COAST TO KEEP
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID TEENS.

TOMORROW...

850MB ARCTIC FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TOMORROW. HOWEVER
TEMPS WILL BE WARMER THAN TODAY AS 925 MB TEMPS JUMP FROM -13C TO
-8C. EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE MID 20S TO PERHAPS THE LOW 30S
ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN. MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY WHICH WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER.
OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE CALMER AND DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAJOR WINTER STORM VERY LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON EVENING
* HEAVY SNOWFALL EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE REGION
* BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY SNOWFALL AMTS NEAR SOUTH COAST - PTYPE ISSUES
* BITTERLY COLD AIR LATE MON NIGHT - WIND CHILLS 15 TO 25 BELOW ZERO

DETAILS...

A MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND VERY LATE SUN
NIGHT INTO MONDAY EVENING.  ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA WILL COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
THE RESULT WILL BE STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER RUNNING THE
ARCTIC DOME AT THE SURFACE.  THEN AS THE LOW DEEPENS...MUCH OF THE
REGION WILL SEE SNOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM.  BIGGEST
UNCERTAINTY IS HOW MUCH OF THE REGION TRANSITIONS TO A PERIOD OF
MIXED PTYPE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE EVENT...CUTTING DOWN ON
POSSIBLE SNOW ACCUMS.

1) TIMING AND UNCERTAINTY

SNOW WILL LIKELY ARRIVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST VERY LATE SUN
EVENING IN OUR WESTERN ZONES AND AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE REST OF
THE REGION.  EXTREMELY TIGHT MID LEVEL THERMAL PACKING WILL ALLOW
SNOW TO QUICKLY BECOME HEAVY.  SNOW WILL FALL HEAVY MONDAY MORNING
AT 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR AND SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT THE AM RUSH HOUR.

THINGS THEN BECOME MORE UNCERTAIN LATER IN THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.  THE GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN SURGING WARM MID LEVEL AIR
TO THE MA PIKE...RESULTING IN A CHANGE TO A PERIOD OF SLEET/FREEZING
RAIN AND EVEN PLAIN RAIN ALONG THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.
THE NAM/ECMWF/GGEM APPEAR THE COLDEST KEEPING MOST AREAS HEAVY
SNOW...EXCEPT FOR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.  THE UKMET APPEARS TO BE IN
BETWEEN THE OTHER SOLUTIONS.  GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WILL BLEND THE
MODELS.  RIGHT NOW WERE THINKING TRANSITION AREA MAY GET BRIEFLY
NEAR OR PERHAPS JUST NORTH OF THE THE TAUNTON TO PROVIDENCE
CORRIDOR...BEFORE COLLAPSING SOUTHEAST.

REGARDLESS HOW FAR NORTH THE TRANSITION LINE GETS...MOST AREAS WILL
CHANGE BACK TO SNOW MON EVENING.  GIVEN CLOSED MID LEVEL CENTERS AND
VERY COLD NORTHEAST FLOW...COULD BE SOME OCEAN ENHANCEMENT ACROSS
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND FOR A TIME BEFORE SNOW ENDS.  BULK OF SNOW
SHOULD WIND DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT ALTHOUGH THE GGEM IS A BIT SLOWER.

2) SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS AND HEADLINES

WE ARE PRETTY CONFIDENT IN A HEAVY SNOWFALL FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION...EXCEPT FOR AREAS NEAR THE SOUTH COAST WHERE PTYPE ISSUES
MAYBE MORE PROBLEMATIC.  8 TO 14 INCHES EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION.  HAVE UPGRADED ALL AREAS FROM PROVIDENCE TO TAUNTON
NORTHWARD TO WINTER STORM WARNING/S WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON CRITERIA
BEING MET.  AREAS SOUTHEAST OF THAT LINE...THERE IS SOME MORE
UNCERTAINTY ESP CAPE/ISLANDS.  IF A LOT OF MIXING OCCURS THESE AREAS
MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH WARNING CRITERIA...BUT ITS STILL CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON MODEL TRENDS.  THEREFORE...WE HAVE HELD THE
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTH COAST AND THE ISLANDS.

3) STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW

NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 50 MPH EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS STORM INTENSIFIES AND PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES.  THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN POOR VISIBILITY ALONG WITH
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.  ITS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW LOCATIONS ALONG
THE COAST COULD SEE NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FOR A VERY SHORT
TIME...BUT STORM DOESN/T SEEM TO WARRANT THOSE TYPE OF HEADLINES.

4) BITTERLY COLD AIR MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

TEMPS WILL LIKELY PLUNGE BELOW ZERO TO 5 ABOVE ZERO IN MANY
LOCATIONS BY EARLY TUE MORNING.  THIS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS
VALUES BETWEEN 15 AND 25 BELOW ZERO. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* COLD PATTERN CONTINUES THRU NEXT WEEKEND
* CLIPPER LOW APPEARING MORE LIKELY THAN COASTAL LOW WED/THU

GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG 12Z DETERMINISTIC...12Z GEFS AND 00Z ECENS
ENSEMBLES THAT THE POLAR JET WILL DOMINATE THE NORTHERN TIER STATES
INCLUDING NEW ENGLAND THIS PERIOD. THIS COMBINED WITH STREAMS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNPHASED WILL SUPPORT MAINLY DRY WEATHER THIS
PERIOD. ONE CAVEAT WILL BE CLIPPER LOW ENTERING THE NORTHEAST
WED/WED NIGHT. EARLIER MODEL RUNS SUGGESTED SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT SOUTHWEST OF NEW ENGLAND...WITH
POSSIBLE COASTAL-OCEAN STORM IMPACTING OUR REGION AROUND THU.
HOWEVER LATEST GUID INCLUDING ENSEMBLES SUGGEST MID LEVEL TROUGH
WILL LACK SUFFICIENT AMPLITUDE TO BACK THE FLOW FOR A SECONDARY LOW
TO IMPACT THE REGION. THEREFORE LEANING TOWARD A MORE OFFSHORE TRACK
AND JUST A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE WED/WED NIGHT. HOWEVER AT
THIS TIME RANGE CAN/T BE TOO DETERMINISTIC. THUS WON`T TOTALLY
DISCOUNT CLOSER SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT.

AS FOR TEMPS...BITTERLY COLD TUE BEHIND DEPARTING MON NGT COASTAL
LOW. THEN COLD EASES WED AHEAD OF APPROACHING CLIPPER LOW FOLLOWED
BUT YET ANOTHER ARCTIC BLAST LATE IN THE WEEK BEHIND THE CLIPPER. AS
FOR INTO NEXT WEEKEND ENSEMBLE TRENDS SUGGEST TEMPS COLDER THAN
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM.../THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...VFR WITH GRADUAL DIMINISHING WIND.

SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR...BUT LOW PROB FOR AREAS OF MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.  VFR SUNDAY EVENING DETERIORATES TO IFR-LIFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW BY DAYBREAK MON AND CONTINUES
AT TIMES INTO MONDAY EVENING.  PTYPE MAY TRANSITION TO A PERIOD OF
SLEET/FREEZING RAIN/RAIN SOUTH OF MA TURNPIKE.  NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS
OF 30 TO 45 KNOTS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST LATER MON INTO MON
EVENING.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR ON
TUESDAY. COULD SEE SOME MVFR CIGS IN SCT SNOW SHOWERS ON
WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW RISK OF MVFR
ALONG SOUTHEAST MASS DEPENDING ON TRACK OF CLIPPER LOW.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...STRONG LOW PRESSURE PULLS FARTHER AWAY WITH WINDS
DIMINISHING BELOW GALE AFTER 06Z...BUT GUSTS 25-30 KT WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY LIKELY
CONTINUING...ESPECIALLY E MA COASTAL WATERS.

SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGHOUT THE DAY BUT EXPECT SCA
WAVES TO REMAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY WILL
PERSIST.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

***STRONG GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS/HIGH SEAS AND THE RISK OF HEAVY
  FREEZING SPRAY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT***

WINDS/SEAS QUICKLY RAMP UP VERY LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON AS LOW
PRESSURE INTENSIFIES NEAR THE SOUTH COAST. GALE WATCHES ISSUED FOR
EXPECTED 40+ KNOT NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS BY MON MORNING.
SEAS BUILD TO 15+ FEET ACROSS OUR EASTERN WATERS BY LATE MON
AFTERNOON/EVENING. IN ADDITION...BITTERLY COLD AIR MOVING OVER THE
WATERS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. HAVE ALSO ISSUED A FREEZING SPRAY WATCH.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE TO HIGH FORECAST
CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY...NW GALES LIKELY ALONG WITH FREEZING SPRAY...POSSIBLY
MODERATE TO HEAVY. MAINLY DRY WITH GOOD VSBY EXCEPT FAR OFFSHORE
WHERE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE COMMON.

WED...WINDS EASE AND BECOME SOUTHWEST AS CLIPPER LOW ENTERS THE
GREAT LAKES AND NY STATE. NOT AS COLD SO FREEZING SPRAY UNLIKELY.
VSBY MAY BRIEFLY LOWER IN A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW.

THU...ARCTIC FRONT WITH NW GALES BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE. MODERATE TO
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY POSSIBLE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
*** MINOR TO PERHAPS ISOLATED AREAS OF MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING
  POSSIBLE MON/MON NIGHT EASTERN MA COASTLINE ***

GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON SURFACE LOW TRACKING SOMEWHERE BETWEEN
NANTUCKET AND THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK WITH NAM THE FASTEST AND GFS
FARTHEST NORTHWEST. ECMWF SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE. MODEL CONSENSUS
BRINGS STRONGEST ONSHORE WINDS BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z...CLOSE TO LOW
TIDE. IF THIS TIMING HOLDS UP WORST CASE SCENARIO WOULD BE MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING.

THE FIRST TIDE CYCLE OF CONCERN IS THE MONDAY MID MORNING. HOWEVER
ALL WAVE GUID SUGGEST SEAS LESS THAN 10 FT AT HIGH TIDE GIVEN
ARRIVAL OF STRONGEST WINDS LATER DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS ALSO
YIELDS SURGE VALUES OF A FOOT OR LESS.

AS FOR THE MONDAY EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE...ASTRO TIDES ARE ABOUT A
1 FT LOWER. HOWEVER A STORM SURGE OF 1.5 TO 2.5 FT IS POSSIBLE.
ESTOFS AND ETSS ARE LOWER...SO I BLENDED THE TWO GUID SOURCES AND
ADDED 50 PERCENT TO COME UP WITH SURGE VALUES OF 1.5 TO 2.5 FT. IN
ADDITION...SEAS WILL LIKELY BUILD TO 15 TO 20 FT DURING THE EVENING
HIGH TIDE. ALL OF THESE FACTORS YIELD A MODERATE RISK OF MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING WITH A LOW RISK OF ISOLATED MODERATE FLOODING.

WHILE WINDS...SEAS AND STORM SURGE WILL BE LESS THAN THE PREVIOUS
COASTAL STORM THERE COULD STILL BE SOME MODEST IMPACT ESPECIALLY FOR
THOSE COMMUNITIES SUCH AS MARSHFIELD MA THAT WERE HIT HARD EARLIER
THIS WEEK WHERE COASTAL STRUCTURES SUCH AS SEAWALLS WERE DAMAGED.
GIVEN THE LOW TRACK IS CLOSE TO NANTUCKET THE GREATEST RISK OF
COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE FARTHER NORTHWARD FROM CAPE COD TO CAPE ANN
WITH PERHAPS THE HIGHEST RISK FROM HULL/COHASSET/SCITUATE/
MARSHFIELD/PLYMOUTH TO SANDWICH HARBOR.
/DUXBURY

GIVEN IT APPEARS MARGINAL FOR SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING AND STILL
48-60 HRS OUT IN TIME WILL HOLD OFF ON A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WITH EXTREMELY COLD AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW MONDAY
NIGHT...TEMPERATURES MAY FALL BACK CLOSE TO OR SURPASSING RECORD
LEVELS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AND THAT IS NOT TAKING INTO ACCOUNT
THE STRONG WINDS.

HERE ARE THE RECORD LOWS FOR TUESDAY 2/3...

BOSTON         -5 SET IN 1881
PROVIDENCE     -6 SET IN 1961
WORCESTER      -7 SET IN 1931, 1955 AND 1971
WINDSOR LOCKS  -3 SET IN 1955
BLUE HILL OBS  -7 SET IN 1955

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR MAZ020>024.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     MAZ002>019-026.
RI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR RIZ005>008.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     RIZ001>004.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ231>235-237.
     HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR ANZ231>235-237-250-251-254>256.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ231-232-
     250-251-254-255.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ231-232-250-251-254-
     255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ233>235-237-
     256.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ233>235-
     237.
     GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ230-236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ230-236.
     GALE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ250-251-254>256.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/NOCERA/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...KJC/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...FRANK/DUNTEN
MARINE...FRANK/NOCERA/DUNTEN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NOCERA
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KBOX 010240
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
940 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BLUSTERY AND VERY COLD CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW. A
MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT THE REGION VERY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY EVENING WITH HEAVY SNOW FOR MANY LOCATIONS. BITTERLY
COLD WIND CHILLS FOLLOW LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
MODERATING TEMPS WEDNESDAY THEN VERY COLD CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. A COASTAL STORM WILL PASS WELL SOUTH
OF NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE WEEK BUT WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
930 PM UPDATE...

SFC RIDGE ACROSS NEW YORK STATE COLLAPSES TOWARD THE MID ATLC
COAST OVERNIGHT AS ARCTIC FRONT APPROACHES CANADIAN BORDER. SKIES
ARE CLEAR BUT SOME LOWER CLOUDS IN EASTERN NY MAY DRIFT INTO
WESTERN NEW ENG OVERNIGHT. STILL GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE COAST BUT
TREND WILL BE FOR DIMINISHING WIND OVERNIGHT. WHERE WINDS HAVE
DECOUPLED TEMPS HAVE ALREADY FALLEN TO NEAR ZERO. CURRENTLY 1 AT
ORE. EXPECT SUBZERO TEMPS NW MA WITH SINGLE NUMBERS ELSEWHERE AWAY
FROM THE COAST. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH WIND ALONG THE COAST TO KEEP
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID TEENS.

TOMORROW...

850MB ARCTIC FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TOMORROW. HOWEVER
TEMPS WILL BE WARMER THAN TODAY AS 925 MB TEMPS JUMP FROM -13C TO
-8C. EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE MID 20S TO PERHAPS THE LOW 30S
ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN. MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY WHICH WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER.
OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE CALMER AND DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAJOR WINTER STORM VERY LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON EVENING
* HEAVY SNOWFALL EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE REGION
* BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY SNOWFALL AMTS NEAR SOUTH COAST - PTYPE ISSUES
* BITTERLY COLD AIR LATE MON NIGHT - WIND CHILLS 15 TO 25 BELOW ZERO

DETAILS...

A MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND VERY LATE SUN
NIGHT INTO MONDAY EVENING.  ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA WILL COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
THE RESULT WILL BE STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER RUNNING THE
ARCTIC DOME AT THE SURFACE.  THEN AS THE LOW DEEPENS...MUCH OF THE
REGION WILL SEE SNOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM.  BIGGEST
UNCERTAINTY IS HOW MUCH OF THE REGION TRANSITIONS TO A PERIOD OF
MIXED PTYPE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE EVENT...CUTTING DOWN ON
POSSIBLE SNOW ACCUMS.

1) TIMING AND UNCERTAINTY

SNOW WILL LIKELY ARRIVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST VERY LATE SUN
EVENING IN OUR WESTERN ZONES AND AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE REST OF
THE REGION.  EXTREMELY TIGHT MID LEVEL THERMAL PACKING WILL ALLOW
SNOW TO QUICKLY BECOME HEAVY.  SNOW WILL FALL HEAVY MONDAY MORNING
AT 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR AND SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT THE AM RUSH HOUR.

THINGS THEN BECOME MORE UNCERTAIN LATER IN THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.  THE GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN SURGING WARM MID LEVEL AIR
TO THE MA PIKE...RESULTING IN A CHANGE TO A PERIOD OF SLEET/FREEZING
RAIN AND EVEN PLAIN RAIN ALONG THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.
THE NAM/ECMWF/GGEM APPEAR THE COLDEST KEEPING MOST AREAS HEAVY
SNOW...EXCEPT FOR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.  THE UKMET APPEARS TO BE IN
BETWEEN THE OTHER SOLUTIONS.  GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WILL BLEND THE
MODELS.  RIGHT NOW WERE THINKING TRANSITION AREA MAY GET BRIEFLY
NEAR OR PERHAPS JUST NORTH OF THE THE TAUNTON TO PROVIDENCE
CORRIDOR...BEFORE COLLAPSING SOUTHEAST.

REGARDLESS HOW FAR NORTH THE TRANSITION LINE GETS...MOST AREAS WILL
CHANGE BACK TO SNOW MON EVENING.  GIVEN CLOSED MID LEVEL CENTERS AND
VERY COLD NORTHEAST FLOW...COULD BE SOME OCEAN ENHANCEMENT ACROSS
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND FOR A TIME BEFORE SNOW ENDS.  BULK OF SNOW
SHOULD WIND DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT ALTHOUGH THE GGEM IS A BIT SLOWER.

2) SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS AND HEADLINES

WE ARE PRETTY CONFIDENT IN A HEAVY SNOWFALL FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION...EXCEPT FOR AREAS NEAR THE SOUTH COAST WHERE PTYPE ISSUES
MAYBE MORE PROBLEMATIC.  8 TO 14 INCHES EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION.  HAVE UPGRADED ALL AREAS FROM PROVIDENCE TO TAUNTON
NORTHWARD TO WINTER STORM WARNING/S WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON CRITERIA
BEING MET.  AREAS SOUTHEAST OF THAT LINE...THERE IS SOME MORE
UNCERTAINTY ESP CAPE/ISLANDS.  IF A LOT OF MIXING OCCURS THESE AREAS
MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH WARNING CRITERIA...BUT ITS STILL CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON MODEL TRENDS.  THEREFORE...WE HAVE HELD THE
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTH COAST AND THE ISLANDS.

3) STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW

NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 50 MPH EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS STORM INTENSIFIES AND PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES.  THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN POOR VISIBILITY ALONG WITH
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.  ITS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW LOCATIONS ALONG
THE COAST COULD SEE NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FOR A VERY SHORT
TIME...BUT STORM DOESN/T SEEM TO WARRANT THOSE TYPE OF HEADLINES.

4) BITTERLY COLD AIR MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

TEMPS WILL LIKELY PLUNGE BELOW ZERO TO 5 ABOVE ZERO IN MANY
LOCATIONS BY EARLY TUE MORNING.  THIS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS
VALUES BETWEEN 15 AND 25 BELOW ZERO. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* COLD PATTERN CONTINUES THRU NEXT WEEKEND
* CLIPPER LOW APPEARING MORE LIKELY THAN COASTAL LOW WED/THU

GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG 12Z DETERMINISTIC...12Z GEFS AND 00Z ECENS
ENSEMBLES THAT THE POLAR JET WILL DOMINATE THE NORTHERN TIER STATES
INCLUDING NEW ENGLAND THIS PERIOD. THIS COMBINED WITH STREAMS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNPHASED WILL SUPPORT MAINLY DRY WEATHER THIS
PERIOD. ONE CAVEAT WILL BE CLIPPER LOW ENTERING THE NORTHEAST
WED/WED NIGHT. EARLIER MODEL RUNS SUGGESTED SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT SOUTHWEST OF NEW ENGLAND...WITH
POSSIBLE COASTAL-OCEAN STORM IMPACTING OUR REGION AROUND THU.
HOWEVER LATEST GUID INCLUDING ENSEMBLES SUGGEST MID LEVEL TROUGH
WILL LACK SUFFICIENT AMPLITUDE TO BACK THE FLOW FOR A SECONDARY LOW
TO IMPACT THE REGION. THEREFORE LEANING TOWARD A MORE OFFSHORE TRACK
AND JUST A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE WED/WED NIGHT. HOWEVER AT
THIS TIME RANGE CAN/T BE TOO DETERMINISTIC. THUS WON`T TOTALLY
DISCOUNT CLOSER SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT.

AS FOR TEMPS...BITTERLY COLD TUE BEHIND DEPARTING MON NGT COASTAL
LOW. THEN COLD EASES WED AHEAD OF APPROACHING CLIPPER LOW FOLLOWED
BUT YET ANOTHER ARCTIC BLAST LATE IN THE WEEK BEHIND THE CLIPPER. AS
FOR INTO NEXT WEEKEND ENSEMBLE TRENDS SUGGEST TEMPS COLDER THAN
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM.../THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...VFR WITH GRADUAL DIMINISHING WIND.

SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR...BUT LOW PROB FOR AREAS OF MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.  VFR SUNDAY EVENING DETERIORATES TO IFR-LIFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW BY DAYBREAK MON AND CONTINUES
AT TIMES INTO MONDAY EVENING.  PTYPE MAY TRANSITION TO A PERIOD OF
SLEET/FREEZING RAIN/RAIN SOUTH OF MA TURNPIKE.  NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS
OF 30 TO 45 KNOTS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST LATER MON INTO MON
EVENING.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR ON
TUESDAY. COULD SEE SOME MVFR CIGS IN SCT SNOW SHOWERS ON
WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW RISK OF MVFR
ALONG SOUTHEAST MASS DEPENDING ON TRACK OF CLIPPER LOW.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...STRONG LOW PRESSURE PULLS FARTHER AWAY WITH WINDS
DIMINISHING BELOW GALE AFTER 06Z...BUT GUSTS 25-30 KT WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY LIKELY
CONTINUING...ESPECIALLY E MA COASTAL WATERS.

SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGHOUT THE DAY BUT EXPECT SCA
WAVES TO REMAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY WILL
PERSIST.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

***STRONG GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS/HIGH SEAS AND THE RISK OF HEAVY
  FREEZING SPRAY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT***

WINDS/SEAS QUICKLY RAMP UP VERY LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON AS LOW
PRESSURE INTENSIFIES NEAR THE SOUTH COAST. GALE WATCHES ISSUED FOR
EXPECTED 40+ KNOT NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS BY MON MORNING.
SEAS BUILD TO 15+ FEET ACROSS OUR EASTERN WATERS BY LATE MON
AFTERNOON/EVENING. IN ADDITION...BITTERLY COLD AIR MOVING OVER THE
WATERS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. HAVE ALSO ISSUED A FREEZING SPRAY WATCH.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE TO HIGH FORECAST
CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY...NW GALES LIKELY ALONG WITH FREEZING SPRAY...POSSIBLY
MODERATE TO HEAVY. MAINLY DRY WITH GOOD VSBY EXCEPT FAR OFFSHORE
WHERE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE COMMON.

WED...WINDS EASE AND BECOME SOUTHWEST AS CLIPPER LOW ENTERS THE
GREAT LAKES AND NY STATE. NOT AS COLD SO FREEZING SPRAY UNLIKELY.
VSBY MAY BRIEFLY LOWER IN A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW.

THU...ARCTIC FRONT WITH NW GALES BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE. MODERATE TO
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY POSSIBLE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
*** MINOR TO PERHAPS ISOLATED AREAS OF MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING
  POSSIBLE MON/MON NIGHT EASTERN MA COASTLINE ***

GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON SURFACE LOW TRACKING SOMEWHERE BETWEEN
NANTUCKET AND THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK WITH NAM THE FASTEST AND GFS
FARTHEST NORTHWEST. ECMWF SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE. MODEL CONSENSUS
BRINGS STRONGEST ONSHORE WINDS BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z...CLOSE TO LOW
TIDE. IF THIS TIMING HOLDS UP WORST CASE SCENARIO WOULD BE MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING.

THE FIRST TIDE CYCLE OF CONCERN IS THE MONDAY MID MORNING. HOWEVER
ALL WAVE GUID SUGGEST SEAS LESS THAN 10 FT AT HIGH TIDE GIVEN
ARRIVAL OF STRONGEST WINDS LATER DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS ALSO
YIELDS SURGE VALUES OF A FOOT OR LESS.

AS FOR THE MONDAY EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE...ASTRO TIDES ARE ABOUT A
1 FT LOWER. HOWEVER A STORM SURGE OF 1.5 TO 2.5 FT IS POSSIBLE.
ESTOFS AND ETSS ARE LOWER...SO I BLENDED THE TWO GUID SOURCES AND
ADDED 50 PERCENT TO COME UP WITH SURGE VALUES OF 1.5 TO 2.5 FT. IN
ADDITION...SEAS WILL LIKELY BUILD TO 15 TO 20 FT DURING THE EVENING
HIGH TIDE. ALL OF THESE FACTORS YIELD A MODERATE RISK OF MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING WITH A LOW RISK OF ISOLATED MODERATE FLOODING.

WHILE WINDS...SEAS AND STORM SURGE WILL BE LESS THAN THE PREVIOUS
COASTAL STORM THERE COULD STILL BE SOME MODEST IMPACT ESPECIALLY FOR
THOSE COMMUNITIES SUCH AS MARSHFIELD MA THAT WERE HIT HARD EARLIER
THIS WEEK WHERE COASTAL STRUCTURES SUCH AS SEAWALLS WERE DAMAGED.
GIVEN THE LOW TRACK IS CLOSE TO NANTUCKET THE GREATEST RISK OF
COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE FARTHER NORTHWARD FROM CAPE COD TO CAPE ANN
WITH PERHAPS THE HIGHEST RISK FROM HULL/COHASSET/SCITUATE/
MARSHFIELD/PLYMOUTH TO SANDWICH HARBOR.
/DUXBURY

GIVEN IT APPEARS MARGINAL FOR SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING AND STILL
48-60 HRS OUT IN TIME WILL HOLD OFF ON A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WITH EXTREMELY COLD AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW MONDAY
NIGHT...TEMPERATURES MAY FALL BACK CLOSE TO OR SURPASSING RECORD
LEVELS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AND THAT IS NOT TAKING INTO ACCOUNT
THE STRONG WINDS.

HERE ARE THE RECORD LOWS FOR TUESDAY 2/3...

BOSTON         -5 SET IN 1881
PROVIDENCE     -6 SET IN 1961
WORCESTER      -7 SET IN 1931, 1955 AND 1971
WINDSOR LOCKS  -3 SET IN 1955
BLUE HILL OBS  -7 SET IN 1955

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR MAZ020>024.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     MAZ002>019-026.
RI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR RIZ005>008.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     RIZ001>004.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ231>235-237.
     HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR ANZ231>235-237-250-251-254>256.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ231-232-
     250-251-254-255.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ231-232-250-251-254-
     255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ233>235-237-
     256.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ233>235-
     237.
     GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ230-236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ230-236.
     GALE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ250-251-254>256.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/NOCERA/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...KJC/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...FRANK/DUNTEN
MARINE...FRANK/NOCERA/DUNTEN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NOCERA
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KBOX 010240
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
940 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BLUSTERY AND VERY COLD CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW. A
MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT THE REGION VERY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY EVENING WITH HEAVY SNOW FOR MANY LOCATIONS. BITTERLY
COLD WIND CHILLS FOLLOW LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
MODERATING TEMPS WEDNESDAY THEN VERY COLD CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. A COASTAL STORM WILL PASS WELL SOUTH
OF NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE WEEK BUT WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
930 PM UPDATE...

SFC RIDGE ACROSS NEW YORK STATE COLLAPSES TOWARD THE MID ATLC
COAST OVERNIGHT AS ARCTIC FRONT APPROACHES CANADIAN BORDER. SKIES
ARE CLEAR BUT SOME LOWER CLOUDS IN EASTERN NY MAY DRIFT INTO
WESTERN NEW ENG OVERNIGHT. STILL GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE COAST BUT
TREND WILL BE FOR DIMINISHING WIND OVERNIGHT. WHERE WINDS HAVE
DECOUPLED TEMPS HAVE ALREADY FALLEN TO NEAR ZERO. CURRENTLY 1 AT
ORE. EXPECT SUBZERO TEMPS NW MA WITH SINGLE NUMBERS ELSEWHERE AWAY
FROM THE COAST. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH WIND ALONG THE COAST TO KEEP
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID TEENS.

TOMORROW...

850MB ARCTIC FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TOMORROW. HOWEVER
TEMPS WILL BE WARMER THAN TODAY AS 925 MB TEMPS JUMP FROM -13C TO
-8C. EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE MID 20S TO PERHAPS THE LOW 30S
ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN. MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY WHICH WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER.
OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE CALMER AND DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAJOR WINTER STORM VERY LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON EVENING
* HEAVY SNOWFALL EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE REGION
* BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY SNOWFALL AMTS NEAR SOUTH COAST - PTYPE ISSUES
* BITTERLY COLD AIR LATE MON NIGHT - WIND CHILLS 15 TO 25 BELOW ZERO

DETAILS...

A MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND VERY LATE SUN
NIGHT INTO MONDAY EVENING.  ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA WILL COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
THE RESULT WILL BE STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER RUNNING THE
ARCTIC DOME AT THE SURFACE.  THEN AS THE LOW DEEPENS...MUCH OF THE
REGION WILL SEE SNOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM.  BIGGEST
UNCERTAINTY IS HOW MUCH OF THE REGION TRANSITIONS TO A PERIOD OF
MIXED PTYPE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE EVENT...CUTTING DOWN ON
POSSIBLE SNOW ACCUMS.

1) TIMING AND UNCERTAINTY

SNOW WILL LIKELY ARRIVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST VERY LATE SUN
EVENING IN OUR WESTERN ZONES AND AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE REST OF
THE REGION.  EXTREMELY TIGHT MID LEVEL THERMAL PACKING WILL ALLOW
SNOW TO QUICKLY BECOME HEAVY.  SNOW WILL FALL HEAVY MONDAY MORNING
AT 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR AND SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT THE AM RUSH HOUR.

THINGS THEN BECOME MORE UNCERTAIN LATER IN THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.  THE GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN SURGING WARM MID LEVEL AIR
TO THE MA PIKE...RESULTING IN A CHANGE TO A PERIOD OF SLEET/FREEZING
RAIN AND EVEN PLAIN RAIN ALONG THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.
THE NAM/ECMWF/GGEM APPEAR THE COLDEST KEEPING MOST AREAS HEAVY
SNOW...EXCEPT FOR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.  THE UKMET APPEARS TO BE IN
BETWEEN THE OTHER SOLUTIONS.  GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WILL BLEND THE
MODELS.  RIGHT NOW WERE THINKING TRANSITION AREA MAY GET BRIEFLY
NEAR OR PERHAPS JUST NORTH OF THE THE TAUNTON TO PROVIDENCE
CORRIDOR...BEFORE COLLAPSING SOUTHEAST.

REGARDLESS HOW FAR NORTH THE TRANSITION LINE GETS...MOST AREAS WILL
CHANGE BACK TO SNOW MON EVENING.  GIVEN CLOSED MID LEVEL CENTERS AND
VERY COLD NORTHEAST FLOW...COULD BE SOME OCEAN ENHANCEMENT ACROSS
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND FOR A TIME BEFORE SNOW ENDS.  BULK OF SNOW
SHOULD WIND DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT ALTHOUGH THE GGEM IS A BIT SLOWER.

2) SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS AND HEADLINES

WE ARE PRETTY CONFIDENT IN A HEAVY SNOWFALL FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION...EXCEPT FOR AREAS NEAR THE SOUTH COAST WHERE PTYPE ISSUES
MAYBE MORE PROBLEMATIC.  8 TO 14 INCHES EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION.  HAVE UPGRADED ALL AREAS FROM PROVIDENCE TO TAUNTON
NORTHWARD TO WINTER STORM WARNING/S WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON CRITERIA
BEING MET.  AREAS SOUTHEAST OF THAT LINE...THERE IS SOME MORE
UNCERTAINTY ESP CAPE/ISLANDS.  IF A LOT OF MIXING OCCURS THESE AREAS
MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH WARNING CRITERIA...BUT ITS STILL CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON MODEL TRENDS.  THEREFORE...WE HAVE HELD THE
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTH COAST AND THE ISLANDS.

3) STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW

NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 50 MPH EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS STORM INTENSIFIES AND PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES.  THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN POOR VISIBILITY ALONG WITH
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.  ITS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW LOCATIONS ALONG
THE COAST COULD SEE NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FOR A VERY SHORT
TIME...BUT STORM DOESN/T SEEM TO WARRANT THOSE TYPE OF HEADLINES.

4) BITTERLY COLD AIR MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

TEMPS WILL LIKELY PLUNGE BELOW ZERO TO 5 ABOVE ZERO IN MANY
LOCATIONS BY EARLY TUE MORNING.  THIS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS
VALUES BETWEEN 15 AND 25 BELOW ZERO. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* COLD PATTERN CONTINUES THRU NEXT WEEKEND
* CLIPPER LOW APPEARING MORE LIKELY THAN COASTAL LOW WED/THU

GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG 12Z DETERMINISTIC...12Z GEFS AND 00Z ECENS
ENSEMBLES THAT THE POLAR JET WILL DOMINATE THE NORTHERN TIER STATES
INCLUDING NEW ENGLAND THIS PERIOD. THIS COMBINED WITH STREAMS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNPHASED WILL SUPPORT MAINLY DRY WEATHER THIS
PERIOD. ONE CAVEAT WILL BE CLIPPER LOW ENTERING THE NORTHEAST
WED/WED NIGHT. EARLIER MODEL RUNS SUGGESTED SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT SOUTHWEST OF NEW ENGLAND...WITH
POSSIBLE COASTAL-OCEAN STORM IMPACTING OUR REGION AROUND THU.
HOWEVER LATEST GUID INCLUDING ENSEMBLES SUGGEST MID LEVEL TROUGH
WILL LACK SUFFICIENT AMPLITUDE TO BACK THE FLOW FOR A SECONDARY LOW
TO IMPACT THE REGION. THEREFORE LEANING TOWARD A MORE OFFSHORE TRACK
AND JUST A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE WED/WED NIGHT. HOWEVER AT
THIS TIME RANGE CAN/T BE TOO DETERMINISTIC. THUS WON`T TOTALLY
DISCOUNT CLOSER SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT.

AS FOR TEMPS...BITTERLY COLD TUE BEHIND DEPARTING MON NGT COASTAL
LOW. THEN COLD EASES WED AHEAD OF APPROACHING CLIPPER LOW FOLLOWED
BUT YET ANOTHER ARCTIC BLAST LATE IN THE WEEK BEHIND THE CLIPPER. AS
FOR INTO NEXT WEEKEND ENSEMBLE TRENDS SUGGEST TEMPS COLDER THAN
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM.../THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...VFR WITH GRADUAL DIMINISHING WIND.

SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR...BUT LOW PROB FOR AREAS OF MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.  VFR SUNDAY EVENING DETERIORATES TO IFR-LIFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW BY DAYBREAK MON AND CONTINUES
AT TIMES INTO MONDAY EVENING.  PTYPE MAY TRANSITION TO A PERIOD OF
SLEET/FREEZING RAIN/RAIN SOUTH OF MA TURNPIKE.  NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS
OF 30 TO 45 KNOTS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST LATER MON INTO MON
EVENING.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR ON
TUESDAY. COULD SEE SOME MVFR CIGS IN SCT SNOW SHOWERS ON
WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW RISK OF MVFR
ALONG SOUTHEAST MASS DEPENDING ON TRACK OF CLIPPER LOW.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...STRONG LOW PRESSURE PULLS FARTHER AWAY WITH WINDS
DIMINISHING BELOW GALE AFTER 06Z...BUT GUSTS 25-30 KT WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY LIKELY
CONTINUING...ESPECIALLY E MA COASTAL WATERS.

SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGHOUT THE DAY BUT EXPECT SCA
WAVES TO REMAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY WILL
PERSIST.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

***STRONG GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS/HIGH SEAS AND THE RISK OF HEAVY
  FREEZING SPRAY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT***

WINDS/SEAS QUICKLY RAMP UP VERY LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON AS LOW
PRESSURE INTENSIFIES NEAR THE SOUTH COAST. GALE WATCHES ISSUED FOR
EXPECTED 40+ KNOT NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS BY MON MORNING.
SEAS BUILD TO 15+ FEET ACROSS OUR EASTERN WATERS BY LATE MON
AFTERNOON/EVENING. IN ADDITION...BITTERLY COLD AIR MOVING OVER THE
WATERS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. HAVE ALSO ISSUED A FREEZING SPRAY WATCH.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE TO HIGH FORECAST
CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY...NW GALES LIKELY ALONG WITH FREEZING SPRAY...POSSIBLY
MODERATE TO HEAVY. MAINLY DRY WITH GOOD VSBY EXCEPT FAR OFFSHORE
WHERE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE COMMON.

WED...WINDS EASE AND BECOME SOUTHWEST AS CLIPPER LOW ENTERS THE
GREAT LAKES AND NY STATE. NOT AS COLD SO FREEZING SPRAY UNLIKELY.
VSBY MAY BRIEFLY LOWER IN A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW.

THU...ARCTIC FRONT WITH NW GALES BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE. MODERATE TO
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY POSSIBLE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
*** MINOR TO PERHAPS ISOLATED AREAS OF MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING
  POSSIBLE MON/MON NIGHT EASTERN MA COASTLINE ***

GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON SURFACE LOW TRACKING SOMEWHERE BETWEEN
NANTUCKET AND THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK WITH NAM THE FASTEST AND GFS
FARTHEST NORTHWEST. ECMWF SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE. MODEL CONSENSUS
BRINGS STRONGEST ONSHORE WINDS BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z...CLOSE TO LOW
TIDE. IF THIS TIMING HOLDS UP WORST CASE SCENARIO WOULD BE MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING.

THE FIRST TIDE CYCLE OF CONCERN IS THE MONDAY MID MORNING. HOWEVER
ALL WAVE GUID SUGGEST SEAS LESS THAN 10 FT AT HIGH TIDE GIVEN
ARRIVAL OF STRONGEST WINDS LATER DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS ALSO
YIELDS SURGE VALUES OF A FOOT OR LESS.

AS FOR THE MONDAY EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE...ASTRO TIDES ARE ABOUT A
1 FT LOWER. HOWEVER A STORM SURGE OF 1.5 TO 2.5 FT IS POSSIBLE.
ESTOFS AND ETSS ARE LOWER...SO I BLENDED THE TWO GUID SOURCES AND
ADDED 50 PERCENT TO COME UP WITH SURGE VALUES OF 1.5 TO 2.5 FT. IN
ADDITION...SEAS WILL LIKELY BUILD TO 15 TO 20 FT DURING THE EVENING
HIGH TIDE. ALL OF THESE FACTORS YIELD A MODERATE RISK OF MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING WITH A LOW RISK OF ISOLATED MODERATE FLOODING.

WHILE WINDS...SEAS AND STORM SURGE WILL BE LESS THAN THE PREVIOUS
COASTAL STORM THERE COULD STILL BE SOME MODEST IMPACT ESPECIALLY FOR
THOSE COMMUNITIES SUCH AS MARSHFIELD MA THAT WERE HIT HARD EARLIER
THIS WEEK WHERE COASTAL STRUCTURES SUCH AS SEAWALLS WERE DAMAGED.
GIVEN THE LOW TRACK IS CLOSE TO NANTUCKET THE GREATEST RISK OF
COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE FARTHER NORTHWARD FROM CAPE COD TO CAPE ANN
WITH PERHAPS THE HIGHEST RISK FROM HULL/COHASSET/SCITUATE/
MARSHFIELD/PLYMOUTH TO SANDWICH HARBOR.
/DUXBURY

GIVEN IT APPEARS MARGINAL FOR SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING AND STILL
48-60 HRS OUT IN TIME WILL HOLD OFF ON A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WITH EXTREMELY COLD AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW MONDAY
NIGHT...TEMPERATURES MAY FALL BACK CLOSE TO OR SURPASSING RECORD
LEVELS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AND THAT IS NOT TAKING INTO ACCOUNT
THE STRONG WINDS.

HERE ARE THE RECORD LOWS FOR TUESDAY 2/3...

BOSTON         -5 SET IN 1881
PROVIDENCE     -6 SET IN 1961
WORCESTER      -7 SET IN 1931, 1955 AND 1971
WINDSOR LOCKS  -3 SET IN 1955
BLUE HILL OBS  -7 SET IN 1955

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR MAZ020>024.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     MAZ002>019-026.
RI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR RIZ005>008.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     RIZ001>004.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ231>235-237.
     HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR ANZ231>235-237-250-251-254>256.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ231-232-
     250-251-254-255.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ231-232-250-251-254-
     255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ233>235-237-
     256.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ233>235-
     237.
     GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ230-236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ230-236.
     GALE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ250-251-254>256.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/NOCERA/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...KJC/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...FRANK/DUNTEN
MARINE...FRANK/NOCERA/DUNTEN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NOCERA
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KALY 010222
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
922 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE ARCTIC HIGH ACROSS THE REGION WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. IT
WILL NOT BE AS COLD...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE BELOW
NORMAL. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO THE AREA. THE
HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 922 PM EST...ALTHOUGH IT REMAINS CLEAR ACROSS WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND...AS WELL AS IN THE TACONICS...GLENS FALLS/LAKE GEORGE
AREAS...AND MID HUDSON VALLEY...CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY ADVANCING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK VALLEY...AND INTO THE
CAPITAL REGION. THESE CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL BE CROSSING OUR AREA OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH LITTLE
MOISTURE AND DRY LOW LEVELS...LITTLE PRECIP WILL OCCUR. CANNOT
RULE OUT A SNOW SHOWER OR FLURRY FOR FAR NORTHWESTERN
AREAS...OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY...WITH JUST SOME PASSING CLOUDS.

IN AREAS THAT ARE STILL CLEAR...TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS THANKS TO DIMINISHING WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES.
HOWEVER...ONCE CLOUDS ARRIVE...TEMPS WILL LEVEL OFF AND POSSIBLY
EVEN RISE A FEW DEGREES. MIN TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS EVERYWHERE...WITH SOME BELOW ZERO READINGS IN THE
ADIRONDACKS AND IN THE GLENS FALLS AREA...WHERE TEMPS ARE ALREADY
-4 DEGREES.

TOMORROW...THE MOISTURE STARVED CLIPPER AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION.  THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL STALL NEAR THE PA/MA BORDER AND CNTRL NJ WESTWARD INTO THE
MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY.  A 1030 HPA OR SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL BUILD IN
FROM SE OF JAMES BAY.  THE SKIES MAY BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY OVER THE
NRN TIER OF THE FCST AREA.  H850 TEMPS FALL TO -10C TO -15C NORTH
AND WEST OF ALBANY...AND -8C TO -10C TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.  MAX
TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN TODAY...BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL BY
10 TO 15 DEGREES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND U20S FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION SOUTH AND EAST AND TEENS TO LOWER 20S TO THE NORTH AND
WEST...WITH SOME SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE SRN DACKS.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE SRN TIER IN THE AFTERNOON...AND
WILL THICKEN AND LOWER TOWARDS 6 PM.  SOME LIGHT OVER RUNNING
SNOWFALL MAY REACH THE SE CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY BTWN 4-6
PM. SOME SLIGHT AND LOW CHC POPS WERE INTRODUCED THERE...BUT A DRY
COLUMN MAY YIELD QUITE A BIT OF VIRGA AT THE ONSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AS A VIGOROUS
NORTHERN STEAM SHORT WAVE COMBINES WITH SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE.
THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY
AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING.


ARCTIC HIGH WILL CONTINUE WEAKEN SUNDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
TO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO TRACK EASTWARD AND MOVE OFF THE DELMARVA COAST ON MONDAY. THERE
HAS BEEN GUIDANCE DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AS
IT HEADS OFFSHORE. THE GFS NOW HAS THE LOW MOVING ALONG THE COAST
ACROSS THE NEW YORK CITY AND LONG ISLAND WHILE THE NAM AND ECMWF
REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE. THE GUIDANCE DOES CONTINUE TO KEEP THE SYSTEM
PROGRESSIVE WITH AN OPEN WAVE ALOFT.

SNOW RATIOS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST ARE EXPECTED
TO START OUT HIGH THEN TRENDED TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY...WHILE RATIOS
WILL REMAIN HIGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA ESPECIALLY AS YOU
HEAD NORTHWARD. THE ENSEMBLE PROBABILISTIC FOR SNOW RATIOS INDICATE
60+% FOR ALBANY AND 64+% FOR GLENS FALLS TO HAVE RATIOS OF 15:1 OR
GREATER.

ALL THIS LEADS TO CONFIDENCE TO UPGRADE THE WATCH TO A WARNING AND
TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...NORTHERN HERKIMER...HAMILTON...NORTHERN WARREN AND NORTHERN
WASHINGTON COUNTIES.

BASED ON THE FORECASTED ONSET OF SNOW HAVE MADE THE START TIME FOR
THE WARNING 9 PM SUNDAY AND THE WATCH AT MIDNIGHT. BOTH RUN
THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY.

THE HEAVIEST MOST INTENSE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM ABOUT 09Z-15Z
MONDAY...IMPACTING THE MORNING COMMUTE TIME...WHEN THE LOW LEVEL JET
WILL BE AT ITS STRONGEST AT 60-70 KNOTS AND PASSING TO OUR SOUTH.
SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES AN HOUR CAN BE EXPECTED. THE SNOW
WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON TAPERING OFF LATE.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS STORM ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR. THIS ALONG
WITH A FRESH SNOW COVER...TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT ARE ANTICIPATED
TO DROP TO ZERO OR BELOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH 10 DEGREES
BELOW ZERO AND COLDER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. MAY NEED
WIND CHILL WARNING AND ADVISORIES FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...HAVE HIGHLIGHTED IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND QUICKLY SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. ANOTHER
COLD DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS...15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL CONTINUE WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND ANOTHER CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A CLIPPER
SYSTEM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE
APPROACHING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC
LIFT PRIMARILY CONFINED TO UPSLOPE-FAVORED AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. ANY ACCUMULATIONS TUESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT...GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH.

THE CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED BETTER DYNAMICS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY...WITH A LIGHT SNOWFALL EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF THE REGION. EXACT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN AT
THIS TIME...BUT A COUPLE OF INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA IS
POSSIBLE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. AS THE CLIPPER SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY. THIS ARCTIC FRONT WILL USHER IN ANOTHER BITTERLY COLD
AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY IMPACT
THE REGION HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL MODERATE SOMEWHAT INTO THE MID 20S
TO LOW 30S ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM...BUT ONLY
RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO UPPER TEENS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
SOME LOCATIONS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY POSSIBLY REACHING INTO THE
LOW 20S. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE 20S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS SATURDAY...WITH UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 5 BELOW ZERO TO 5
ABOVE ZERO...AND ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM NEAR ZERO TO THE SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS TO LOW AND MID TEENS ACROSS
THE CAPITAL REGION...WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MID HUDSON VALLEY.
THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES 5 TO
15 BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE ARCTIC
FRONT. WIND CHILL HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED AS WELL AS A LIGHT
WESTERLY WIND ALLOWS WIND CHILL VALUES TO PLUMMET TO 15 TO 30 BELOW
ZERO. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 5 BELOW ZERO TO
5 ABOVE ZERO WITH WIND CHILLS WELL BELOW ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
JUST SOME PASSING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT THANKS TO A MOISTURE STARVED
ARCTIC COLD FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. W-NW WINDS AT
5-10 KTS THIS EVENING WILL DIMINISH AND BE LIGHT AND NEARLY CALM
FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY...AS SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED BENEATH AN INVERSION. AS A RESULT...BKN
CIGS AROUND 3500-5000 FT WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
MEANWHILE...MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ALSO INCREASE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE MIDWEST. SNOWFALL ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN AT THE TAF SITES ON SUNDAY
EVENING...BUT WILL LIKELY NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER 00Z MONDAY. LIGHT
N-NE WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL BE AROUND 5 KTS FOR ALL SITES.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-MON: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SN.
MON NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
TUE-TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WED-WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO THE AREA

CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH ICE THICKEN ON
RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ALBANY SEASON SNOWFALL TOTAL THROUGH JANUARY 30TH STANDS AT 40 INCHES
WHICH IS 6.4 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     NYZ038>041-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ032-033-042-043.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...IAA







000
FXUS61 KALY 010222
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
922 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE ARCTIC HIGH ACROSS THE REGION WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. IT
WILL NOT BE AS COLD...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE BELOW
NORMAL. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO THE AREA. THE
HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 922 PM EST...ALTHOUGH IT REMAINS CLEAR ACROSS WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND...AS WELL AS IN THE TACONICS...GLENS FALLS/LAKE GEORGE
AREAS...AND MID HUDSON VALLEY...CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY ADVANCING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK VALLEY...AND INTO THE
CAPITAL REGION. THESE CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL BE CROSSING OUR AREA OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH LITTLE
MOISTURE AND DRY LOW LEVELS...LITTLE PRECIP WILL OCCUR. CANNOT
RULE OUT A SNOW SHOWER OR FLURRY FOR FAR NORTHWESTERN
AREAS...OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY...WITH JUST SOME PASSING CLOUDS.

IN AREAS THAT ARE STILL CLEAR...TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS THANKS TO DIMINISHING WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES.
HOWEVER...ONCE CLOUDS ARRIVE...TEMPS WILL LEVEL OFF AND POSSIBLY
EVEN RISE A FEW DEGREES. MIN TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS EVERYWHERE...WITH SOME BELOW ZERO READINGS IN THE
ADIRONDACKS AND IN THE GLENS FALLS AREA...WHERE TEMPS ARE ALREADY
-4 DEGREES.

TOMORROW...THE MOISTURE STARVED CLIPPER AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION.  THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL STALL NEAR THE PA/MA BORDER AND CNTRL NJ WESTWARD INTO THE
MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY.  A 1030 HPA OR SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL BUILD IN
FROM SE OF JAMES BAY.  THE SKIES MAY BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY OVER THE
NRN TIER OF THE FCST AREA.  H850 TEMPS FALL TO -10C TO -15C NORTH
AND WEST OF ALBANY...AND -8C TO -10C TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.  MAX
TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN TODAY...BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL BY
10 TO 15 DEGREES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND U20S FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION SOUTH AND EAST AND TEENS TO LOWER 20S TO THE NORTH AND
WEST...WITH SOME SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE SRN DACKS.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE SRN TIER IN THE AFTERNOON...AND
WILL THICKEN AND LOWER TOWARDS 6 PM.  SOME LIGHT OVER RUNNING
SNOWFALL MAY REACH THE SE CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY BTWN 4-6
PM. SOME SLIGHT AND LOW CHC POPS WERE INTRODUCED THERE...BUT A DRY
COLUMN MAY YIELD QUITE A BIT OF VIRGA AT THE ONSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AS A VIGOROUS
NORTHERN STEAM SHORT WAVE COMBINES WITH SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE.
THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY
AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING.


ARCTIC HIGH WILL CONTINUE WEAKEN SUNDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
TO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO TRACK EASTWARD AND MOVE OFF THE DELMARVA COAST ON MONDAY. THERE
HAS BEEN GUIDANCE DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AS
IT HEADS OFFSHORE. THE GFS NOW HAS THE LOW MOVING ALONG THE COAST
ACROSS THE NEW YORK CITY AND LONG ISLAND WHILE THE NAM AND ECMWF
REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE. THE GUIDANCE DOES CONTINUE TO KEEP THE SYSTEM
PROGRESSIVE WITH AN OPEN WAVE ALOFT.

SNOW RATIOS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST ARE EXPECTED
TO START OUT HIGH THEN TRENDED TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY...WHILE RATIOS
WILL REMAIN HIGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA ESPECIALLY AS YOU
HEAD NORTHWARD. THE ENSEMBLE PROBABILISTIC FOR SNOW RATIOS INDICATE
60+% FOR ALBANY AND 64+% FOR GLENS FALLS TO HAVE RATIOS OF 15:1 OR
GREATER.

ALL THIS LEADS TO CONFIDENCE TO UPGRADE THE WATCH TO A WARNING AND
TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...NORTHERN HERKIMER...HAMILTON...NORTHERN WARREN AND NORTHERN
WASHINGTON COUNTIES.

BASED ON THE FORECASTED ONSET OF SNOW HAVE MADE THE START TIME FOR
THE WARNING 9 PM SUNDAY AND THE WATCH AT MIDNIGHT. BOTH RUN
THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY.

THE HEAVIEST MOST INTENSE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM ABOUT 09Z-15Z
MONDAY...IMPACTING THE MORNING COMMUTE TIME...WHEN THE LOW LEVEL JET
WILL BE AT ITS STRONGEST AT 60-70 KNOTS AND PASSING TO OUR SOUTH.
SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES AN HOUR CAN BE EXPECTED. THE SNOW
WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON TAPERING OFF LATE.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS STORM ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR. THIS ALONG
WITH A FRESH SNOW COVER...TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT ARE ANTICIPATED
TO DROP TO ZERO OR BELOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH 10 DEGREES
BELOW ZERO AND COLDER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. MAY NEED
WIND CHILL WARNING AND ADVISORIES FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...HAVE HIGHLIGHTED IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND QUICKLY SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. ANOTHER
COLD DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS...15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL CONTINUE WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND ANOTHER CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A CLIPPER
SYSTEM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE
APPROACHING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC
LIFT PRIMARILY CONFINED TO UPSLOPE-FAVORED AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. ANY ACCUMULATIONS TUESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT...GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH.

THE CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED BETTER DYNAMICS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY...WITH A LIGHT SNOWFALL EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF THE REGION. EXACT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN AT
THIS TIME...BUT A COUPLE OF INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA IS
POSSIBLE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. AS THE CLIPPER SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY. THIS ARCTIC FRONT WILL USHER IN ANOTHER BITTERLY COLD
AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY IMPACT
THE REGION HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL MODERATE SOMEWHAT INTO THE MID 20S
TO LOW 30S ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM...BUT ONLY
RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO UPPER TEENS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
SOME LOCATIONS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY POSSIBLY REACHING INTO THE
LOW 20S. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE 20S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS SATURDAY...WITH UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 5 BELOW ZERO TO 5
ABOVE ZERO...AND ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM NEAR ZERO TO THE SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS TO LOW AND MID TEENS ACROSS
THE CAPITAL REGION...WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MID HUDSON VALLEY.
THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES 5 TO
15 BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE ARCTIC
FRONT. WIND CHILL HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED AS WELL AS A LIGHT
WESTERLY WIND ALLOWS WIND CHILL VALUES TO PLUMMET TO 15 TO 30 BELOW
ZERO. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 5 BELOW ZERO TO
5 ABOVE ZERO WITH WIND CHILLS WELL BELOW ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
JUST SOME PASSING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT THANKS TO A MOISTURE STARVED
ARCTIC COLD FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. W-NW WINDS AT
5-10 KTS THIS EVENING WILL DIMINISH AND BE LIGHT AND NEARLY CALM
FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY...AS SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED BENEATH AN INVERSION. AS A RESULT...BKN
CIGS AROUND 3500-5000 FT WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
MEANWHILE...MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ALSO INCREASE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE MIDWEST. SNOWFALL ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN AT THE TAF SITES ON SUNDAY
EVENING...BUT WILL LIKELY NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER 00Z MONDAY. LIGHT
N-NE WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL BE AROUND 5 KTS FOR ALL SITES.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-MON: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SN.
MON NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
TUE-TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WED-WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO THE AREA

CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH ICE THICKEN ON
RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ALBANY SEASON SNOWFALL TOTAL THROUGH JANUARY 30TH STANDS AT 40 INCHES
WHICH IS 6.4 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     NYZ038>041-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ032-033-042-043.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...IAA








000
FXUS61 KALY 010222
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
922 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE ARCTIC HIGH ACROSS THE REGION WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. IT
WILL NOT BE AS COLD...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE BELOW
NORMAL. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO THE AREA. THE
HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 922 PM EST...ALTHOUGH IT REMAINS CLEAR ACROSS WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND...AS WELL AS IN THE TACONICS...GLENS FALLS/LAKE GEORGE
AREAS...AND MID HUDSON VALLEY...CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY ADVANCING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK VALLEY...AND INTO THE
CAPITAL REGION. THESE CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL BE CROSSING OUR AREA OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH LITTLE
MOISTURE AND DRY LOW LEVELS...LITTLE PRECIP WILL OCCUR. CANNOT
RULE OUT A SNOW SHOWER OR FLURRY FOR FAR NORTHWESTERN
AREAS...OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY...WITH JUST SOME PASSING CLOUDS.

IN AREAS THAT ARE STILL CLEAR...TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS THANKS TO DIMINISHING WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES.
HOWEVER...ONCE CLOUDS ARRIVE...TEMPS WILL LEVEL OFF AND POSSIBLY
EVEN RISE A FEW DEGREES. MIN TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS EVERYWHERE...WITH SOME BELOW ZERO READINGS IN THE
ADIRONDACKS AND IN THE GLENS FALLS AREA...WHERE TEMPS ARE ALREADY
-4 DEGREES.

TOMORROW...THE MOISTURE STARVED CLIPPER AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION.  THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL STALL NEAR THE PA/MA BORDER AND CNTRL NJ WESTWARD INTO THE
MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY.  A 1030 HPA OR SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL BUILD IN
FROM SE OF JAMES BAY.  THE SKIES MAY BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY OVER THE
NRN TIER OF THE FCST AREA.  H850 TEMPS FALL TO -10C TO -15C NORTH
AND WEST OF ALBANY...AND -8C TO -10C TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.  MAX
TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN TODAY...BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL BY
10 TO 15 DEGREES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND U20S FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION SOUTH AND EAST AND TEENS TO LOWER 20S TO THE NORTH AND
WEST...WITH SOME SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE SRN DACKS.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE SRN TIER IN THE AFTERNOON...AND
WILL THICKEN AND LOWER TOWARDS 6 PM.  SOME LIGHT OVER RUNNING
SNOWFALL MAY REACH THE SE CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY BTWN 4-6
PM. SOME SLIGHT AND LOW CHC POPS WERE INTRODUCED THERE...BUT A DRY
COLUMN MAY YIELD QUITE A BIT OF VIRGA AT THE ONSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AS A VIGOROUS
NORTHERN STEAM SHORT WAVE COMBINES WITH SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE.
THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY
AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING.


ARCTIC HIGH WILL CONTINUE WEAKEN SUNDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
TO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO TRACK EASTWARD AND MOVE OFF THE DELMARVA COAST ON MONDAY. THERE
HAS BEEN GUIDANCE DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AS
IT HEADS OFFSHORE. THE GFS NOW HAS THE LOW MOVING ALONG THE COAST
ACROSS THE NEW YORK CITY AND LONG ISLAND WHILE THE NAM AND ECMWF
REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE. THE GUIDANCE DOES CONTINUE TO KEEP THE SYSTEM
PROGRESSIVE WITH AN OPEN WAVE ALOFT.

SNOW RATIOS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST ARE EXPECTED
TO START OUT HIGH THEN TRENDED TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY...WHILE RATIOS
WILL REMAIN HIGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA ESPECIALLY AS YOU
HEAD NORTHWARD. THE ENSEMBLE PROBABILISTIC FOR SNOW RATIOS INDICATE
60+% FOR ALBANY AND 64+% FOR GLENS FALLS TO HAVE RATIOS OF 15:1 OR
GREATER.

ALL THIS LEADS TO CONFIDENCE TO UPGRADE THE WATCH TO A WARNING AND
TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...NORTHERN HERKIMER...HAMILTON...NORTHERN WARREN AND NORTHERN
WASHINGTON COUNTIES.

BASED ON THE FORECASTED ONSET OF SNOW HAVE MADE THE START TIME FOR
THE WARNING 9 PM SUNDAY AND THE WATCH AT MIDNIGHT. BOTH RUN
THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY.

THE HEAVIEST MOST INTENSE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM ABOUT 09Z-15Z
MONDAY...IMPACTING THE MORNING COMMUTE TIME...WHEN THE LOW LEVEL JET
WILL BE AT ITS STRONGEST AT 60-70 KNOTS AND PASSING TO OUR SOUTH.
SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES AN HOUR CAN BE EXPECTED. THE SNOW
WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON TAPERING OFF LATE.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS STORM ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR. THIS ALONG
WITH A FRESH SNOW COVER...TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT ARE ANTICIPATED
TO DROP TO ZERO OR BELOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH 10 DEGREES
BELOW ZERO AND COLDER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. MAY NEED
WIND CHILL WARNING AND ADVISORIES FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...HAVE HIGHLIGHTED IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND QUICKLY SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. ANOTHER
COLD DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS...15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL CONTINUE WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND ANOTHER CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A CLIPPER
SYSTEM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE
APPROACHING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC
LIFT PRIMARILY CONFINED TO UPSLOPE-FAVORED AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. ANY ACCUMULATIONS TUESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT...GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH.

THE CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED BETTER DYNAMICS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY...WITH A LIGHT SNOWFALL EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF THE REGION. EXACT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN AT
THIS TIME...BUT A COUPLE OF INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA IS
POSSIBLE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. AS THE CLIPPER SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY. THIS ARCTIC FRONT WILL USHER IN ANOTHER BITTERLY COLD
AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY IMPACT
THE REGION HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL MODERATE SOMEWHAT INTO THE MID 20S
TO LOW 30S ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM...BUT ONLY
RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO UPPER TEENS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
SOME LOCATIONS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY POSSIBLY REACHING INTO THE
LOW 20S. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE 20S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS SATURDAY...WITH UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 5 BELOW ZERO TO 5
ABOVE ZERO...AND ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM NEAR ZERO TO THE SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS TO LOW AND MID TEENS ACROSS
THE CAPITAL REGION...WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MID HUDSON VALLEY.
THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES 5 TO
15 BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE ARCTIC
FRONT. WIND CHILL HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED AS WELL AS A LIGHT
WESTERLY WIND ALLOWS WIND CHILL VALUES TO PLUMMET TO 15 TO 30 BELOW
ZERO. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 5 BELOW ZERO TO
5 ABOVE ZERO WITH WIND CHILLS WELL BELOW ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
JUST SOME PASSING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT THANKS TO A MOISTURE STARVED
ARCTIC COLD FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. W-NW WINDS AT
5-10 KTS THIS EVENING WILL DIMINISH AND BE LIGHT AND NEARLY CALM
FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY...AS SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED BENEATH AN INVERSION. AS A RESULT...BKN
CIGS AROUND 3500-5000 FT WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
MEANWHILE...MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ALSO INCREASE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE MIDWEST. SNOWFALL ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN AT THE TAF SITES ON SUNDAY
EVENING...BUT WILL LIKELY NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER 00Z MONDAY. LIGHT
N-NE WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL BE AROUND 5 KTS FOR ALL SITES.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-MON: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SN.
MON NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
TUE-TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WED-WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO THE AREA

CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH ICE THICKEN ON
RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ALBANY SEASON SNOWFALL TOTAL THROUGH JANUARY 30TH STANDS AT 40 INCHES
WHICH IS 6.4 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     NYZ038>041-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ032-033-042-043.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...IAA








000
FXUS61 KALY 010222
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
922 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE ARCTIC HIGH ACROSS THE REGION WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. IT
WILL NOT BE AS COLD...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE BELOW
NORMAL. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO THE AREA. THE
HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 922 PM EST...ALTHOUGH IT REMAINS CLEAR ACROSS WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND...AS WELL AS IN THE TACONICS...GLENS FALLS/LAKE GEORGE
AREAS...AND MID HUDSON VALLEY...CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY ADVANCING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK VALLEY...AND INTO THE
CAPITAL REGION. THESE CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL BE CROSSING OUR AREA OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH LITTLE
MOISTURE AND DRY LOW LEVELS...LITTLE PRECIP WILL OCCUR. CANNOT
RULE OUT A SNOW SHOWER OR FLURRY FOR FAR NORTHWESTERN
AREAS...OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY...WITH JUST SOME PASSING CLOUDS.

IN AREAS THAT ARE STILL CLEAR...TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS THANKS TO DIMINISHING WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES.
HOWEVER...ONCE CLOUDS ARRIVE...TEMPS WILL LEVEL OFF AND POSSIBLY
EVEN RISE A FEW DEGREES. MIN TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS EVERYWHERE...WITH SOME BELOW ZERO READINGS IN THE
ADIRONDACKS AND IN THE GLENS FALLS AREA...WHERE TEMPS ARE ALREADY
-4 DEGREES.

TOMORROW...THE MOISTURE STARVED CLIPPER AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION.  THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL STALL NEAR THE PA/MA BORDER AND CNTRL NJ WESTWARD INTO THE
MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY.  A 1030 HPA OR SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL BUILD IN
FROM SE OF JAMES BAY.  THE SKIES MAY BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY OVER THE
NRN TIER OF THE FCST AREA.  H850 TEMPS FALL TO -10C TO -15C NORTH
AND WEST OF ALBANY...AND -8C TO -10C TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.  MAX
TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN TODAY...BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL BY
10 TO 15 DEGREES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND U20S FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION SOUTH AND EAST AND TEENS TO LOWER 20S TO THE NORTH AND
WEST...WITH SOME SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE SRN DACKS.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE SRN TIER IN THE AFTERNOON...AND
WILL THICKEN AND LOWER TOWARDS 6 PM.  SOME LIGHT OVER RUNNING
SNOWFALL MAY REACH THE SE CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY BTWN 4-6
PM. SOME SLIGHT AND LOW CHC POPS WERE INTRODUCED THERE...BUT A DRY
COLUMN MAY YIELD QUITE A BIT OF VIRGA AT THE ONSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AS A VIGOROUS
NORTHERN STEAM SHORT WAVE COMBINES WITH SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE.
THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY
AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING.


ARCTIC HIGH WILL CONTINUE WEAKEN SUNDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
TO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO TRACK EASTWARD AND MOVE OFF THE DELMARVA COAST ON MONDAY. THERE
HAS BEEN GUIDANCE DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AS
IT HEADS OFFSHORE. THE GFS NOW HAS THE LOW MOVING ALONG THE COAST
ACROSS THE NEW YORK CITY AND LONG ISLAND WHILE THE NAM AND ECMWF
REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE. THE GUIDANCE DOES CONTINUE TO KEEP THE SYSTEM
PROGRESSIVE WITH AN OPEN WAVE ALOFT.

SNOW RATIOS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST ARE EXPECTED
TO START OUT HIGH THEN TRENDED TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY...WHILE RATIOS
WILL REMAIN HIGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA ESPECIALLY AS YOU
HEAD NORTHWARD. THE ENSEMBLE PROBABILISTIC FOR SNOW RATIOS INDICATE
60+% FOR ALBANY AND 64+% FOR GLENS FALLS TO HAVE RATIOS OF 15:1 OR
GREATER.

ALL THIS LEADS TO CONFIDENCE TO UPGRADE THE WATCH TO A WARNING AND
TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...NORTHERN HERKIMER...HAMILTON...NORTHERN WARREN AND NORTHERN
WASHINGTON COUNTIES.

BASED ON THE FORECASTED ONSET OF SNOW HAVE MADE THE START TIME FOR
THE WARNING 9 PM SUNDAY AND THE WATCH AT MIDNIGHT. BOTH RUN
THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY.

THE HEAVIEST MOST INTENSE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM ABOUT 09Z-15Z
MONDAY...IMPACTING THE MORNING COMMUTE TIME...WHEN THE LOW LEVEL JET
WILL BE AT ITS STRONGEST AT 60-70 KNOTS AND PASSING TO OUR SOUTH.
SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES AN HOUR CAN BE EXPECTED. THE SNOW
WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON TAPERING OFF LATE.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS STORM ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR. THIS ALONG
WITH A FRESH SNOW COVER...TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT ARE ANTICIPATED
TO DROP TO ZERO OR BELOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH 10 DEGREES
BELOW ZERO AND COLDER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. MAY NEED
WIND CHILL WARNING AND ADVISORIES FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...HAVE HIGHLIGHTED IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND QUICKLY SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. ANOTHER
COLD DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS...15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL CONTINUE WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND ANOTHER CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A CLIPPER
SYSTEM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE
APPROACHING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC
LIFT PRIMARILY CONFINED TO UPSLOPE-FAVORED AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. ANY ACCUMULATIONS TUESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT...GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH.

THE CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED BETTER DYNAMICS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY...WITH A LIGHT SNOWFALL EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF THE REGION. EXACT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN AT
THIS TIME...BUT A COUPLE OF INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA IS
POSSIBLE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. AS THE CLIPPER SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY. THIS ARCTIC FRONT WILL USHER IN ANOTHER BITTERLY COLD
AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY IMPACT
THE REGION HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL MODERATE SOMEWHAT INTO THE MID 20S
TO LOW 30S ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM...BUT ONLY
RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO UPPER TEENS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
SOME LOCATIONS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY POSSIBLY REACHING INTO THE
LOW 20S. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE 20S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS SATURDAY...WITH UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 5 BELOW ZERO TO 5
ABOVE ZERO...AND ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM NEAR ZERO TO THE SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS TO LOW AND MID TEENS ACROSS
THE CAPITAL REGION...WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MID HUDSON VALLEY.
THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES 5 TO
15 BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE ARCTIC
FRONT. WIND CHILL HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED AS WELL AS A LIGHT
WESTERLY WIND ALLOWS WIND CHILL VALUES TO PLUMMET TO 15 TO 30 BELOW
ZERO. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 5 BELOW ZERO TO
5 ABOVE ZERO WITH WIND CHILLS WELL BELOW ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
JUST SOME PASSING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT THANKS TO A MOISTURE STARVED
ARCTIC COLD FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. W-NW WINDS AT
5-10 KTS THIS EVENING WILL DIMINISH AND BE LIGHT AND NEARLY CALM
FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY...AS SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED BENEATH AN INVERSION. AS A RESULT...BKN
CIGS AROUND 3500-5000 FT WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
MEANWHILE...MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ALSO INCREASE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE MIDWEST. SNOWFALL ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN AT THE TAF SITES ON SUNDAY
EVENING...BUT WILL LIKELY NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER 00Z MONDAY. LIGHT
N-NE WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL BE AROUND 5 KTS FOR ALL SITES.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-MON: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SN.
MON NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
TUE-TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WED-WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO THE AREA

CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH ICE THICKEN ON
RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ALBANY SEASON SNOWFALL TOTAL THROUGH JANUARY 30TH STANDS AT 40 INCHES
WHICH IS 6.4 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     NYZ038>041-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ032-033-042-043.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...IAA







000
FXUS61 KALY 312351
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
651 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE ARCTIC HIGH ACROSS THE REGION WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. IT
WILL NOT BE AS COLD...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE BELOW
NORMAL. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO THE AREA. THE
HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 651 PM EST...SKIES ARE MAINLY CLEAR OVER MUCH OF THE REGION.
THE EXCEPTION IS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND UPPER MOHAWK
VALLEY...WHERE A BATCH OF LOWER CLOUDS ARE MOVING INTO THE AREA
FROM CENTRAL NY. THESE CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL BE CROSSING OUR AREA OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH LITTLE
MOISTURE AND DRY LOW LEVELS...LITTLE PRECIP WILL OCCUR. CANNOT
RULE OUT A SNOW SHOWER OR FLURRY FOR FAR NORTHWESTERN
AREAS...OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY...WITH JUST SOME PASSING CLOUDS.

TEMPS WILL DROP OFF THIS EVENING WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND CLEAR
SKIES. HOWEVER...TEMPS WILL LEVEL OFF AND POSSIBLY EVEN RISE LATE
TONIGHT...AS CLOUDS INCREASE DUE TO THE PASSING BOUNDARY. MIN
TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS EVERYWHERE...WITH SOME BELOW
ZERO READINGS IN THE ADIRONDACKS.

TOMORROW...THE MOISTURE STARVED CLIPPER AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION.  THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL STALL NEAR THE PA/MA BORDER AND CNTRL NJ WESTWARD INTO THE
MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY.  A 1030 HPA OR SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL BUILD IN
FROM SE OF JAMES BAY.  THE SKIES MAY BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY OVER THE
NRN TIER OF THE FCST AREA.  H850 TEMPS FALL TO -10C TO -15C NORTH
AND WEST OF ALBANY...AND -8C TO -10C TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.  MAX
TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN TODAY...BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL BY
10 TO 15 DEGREES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND U20S FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION SOUTH AND EAST AND TEENS TO LOWER 20S TO THE NORTH AND
WEST...WITH SOME SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE SRN DACKS.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE SRN TIER IN THE AFTERNOON...AND
WILL THICKEN AND LOWER TOWARDS 6 PM.  SOME LIGHT OVER RUNNING
SNOWFALL MAY REACH THE SE CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY BTWN 4-6
PM. SOME SLIGHT AND LOW CHC POPS WERE INTRODUCED THERE...BUT A DRY
COLUMN MAY YIELD QUITE A BIT OF VIRGA AT THE ONSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AS A VIGOROUS
NORTHERN STEAM SHORT WAVE COMBINES WITH SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE.
THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY
AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING.


ARCTIC HIGH WILL CONTINUE WEAKEN SUNDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
TO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO TRACK EASTWARD AND MOVE OFF THE DELMARVA COAST ON MONDAY. THERE
HAS BEEN GUIDANCE DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AS
IT HEADS OFFSHORE. THE GFS NOW HAS THE LOW MOVING ALONG THE COAST
ACROSS THE NEW YORK CITY AND LONG ISLAND WHILE THE NAM AND ECMWF
REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE. THE GUIDANCE DOES CONTINUE TO KEEP THE SYSTEM
PROGRESSIVE WITH AN OPEN WAVE ALOFT.

SNOW RATIOS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST ARE EXPECTED
TO START OUT HIGH THEN TRENDED TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY...WHILE RATIOS
WILL REMAIN HIGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA ESPECIALLY AS YOU
HEAD NORTHWARD. THE ENSEMBLE PROBABILISTIC FOR SNOW RATIOS INDICATE
60+% FOR ALBANY AND 64+% FOR GLENS FALLS TO HAVE RATIOS OF 15:1 OR
GREATER.

ALL THIS LEADS TO CONFIDENCE TO UPGRADE THE WATCH TO A WARNING AND
TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...NORTHERN HERKIMER...HAMILTON...NORTHERN WARREN AND NORTHERN
WASHINGTON COUNTIES.

BASED ON THE FORECASTED ONSET OF SNOW HAVE MADE THE START TIME FOR
THE WARNING 9 PM SUNDAY AND THE WATCH AT MIDNIGHT. BOTH RUN
THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY.

THE HEAVIEST MOST INTENSE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM ABOUT 09Z-15Z
MONDAY...IMPACTING THE MORNING COMMUTE TIME...WHEN THE LOW LEVEL JET
WILL BE AT ITS STRONGEST AT 60-70 KNOTS AND PASSING TO OUR SOUTH.
SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES AN HOUR CAN BE EXPECTED. THE SNOW
WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON TAPERING OFF LATE.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS STORM ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR. THIS ALONG
WITH A FRESH SNOW COVER...TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT ARE ANTICIPATED
TO DROP TO ZERO OR BELOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH 10 DEGREES
BELOW ZERO AND COLDER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. MAY NEED
WIND CHILL WARNING AND ADVISORIES FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...HAVE HIGHLIGHTED IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND QUICKLY SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. ANOTHER
COLD DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS...15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL CONTINUE WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND ANOTHER CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A CLIPPER
SYSTEM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE
APPROACHING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC
LIFT PRIMARILY CONFINED TO UPSLOPE-FAVORED AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. ANY ACCUMULATIONS TUESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT...GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH.

THE CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED BETTER DYNAMICS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY...WITH A LIGHT SNOWFALL EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF THE REGION. EXACT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN AT
THIS TIME...BUT A COUPLE OF INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA IS
POSSIBLE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. AS THE CLIPPER SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY. THIS ARCTIC FRONT WILL USHER IN ANOTHER BITTERLY COLD
AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY IMPACT
THE REGION HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL MODERATE SOMEWHAT INTO THE MID 20S
TO LOW 30S ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM...BUT ONLY
RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO UPPER TEENS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
SOME LOCATIONS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY POSSIBLY REACHING INTO THE
LOW 20S. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE 20S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS SATURDAY...WITH UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 5 BELOW ZERO TO 5
ABOVE ZERO...AND ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM NEAR ZERO TO THE SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS TO LOW AND MID TEENS ACROSS
THE CAPITAL REGION...WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MID HUDSON VALLEY.
THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES 5 TO
15 BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE ARCTIC
FRONT. WIND CHILL HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED AS WELL AS A LIGHT
WESTERLY WIND ALLOWS WIND CHILL VALUES TO PLUMMET TO 15 TO 30 BELOW
ZERO. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 5 BELOW ZERO TO
5 ABOVE ZERO WITH WIND CHILLS WELL BELOW ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
JUST SOME PASSING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT THANKS TO A MOISTURE STARVED
ARCTIC COLD FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. W-NW WINDS AT
5-10 KTS THIS EVENING WILL DIMINISH AND BE LIGHT AND NEARLY CALM
FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY...AS SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED BENEATH AN INVERSION. AS A RESULT...BKN
CIGS AROUND 3500-5000 FT WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
MEANWHILE...MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ALSO INCREASE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE MIDWEST. SNOWFALL ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN AT THE TAF SITES ON SUNDAY
EVENING...BUT WILL LIKELY NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER 00Z MONDAY. LIGHT
N-NE WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL BE AROUND 5 KTS FOR ALL SITES.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-MON: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SN.
MON NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
TUE-TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WED-WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO THE AREA

CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH ICE THICKEN ON
RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ALBANY SEASON SNOWFALL TOTAL THROUGH JANUARY 30TH STANDS AT 40 INCHES
WHICH IS 6.4 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     NYZ038>041-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ032-033-042-043.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...IAA









000
FXUS61 KALY 312351
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
651 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE ARCTIC HIGH ACROSS THE REGION WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. IT
WILL NOT BE AS COLD...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE BELOW
NORMAL. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO THE AREA. THE
HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 651 PM EST...SKIES ARE MAINLY CLEAR OVER MUCH OF THE REGION.
THE EXCEPTION IS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND UPPER MOHAWK
VALLEY...WHERE A BATCH OF LOWER CLOUDS ARE MOVING INTO THE AREA
FROM CENTRAL NY. THESE CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL BE CROSSING OUR AREA OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH LITTLE
MOISTURE AND DRY LOW LEVELS...LITTLE PRECIP WILL OCCUR. CANNOT
RULE OUT A SNOW SHOWER OR FLURRY FOR FAR NORTHWESTERN
AREAS...OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY...WITH JUST SOME PASSING CLOUDS.

TEMPS WILL DROP OFF THIS EVENING WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND CLEAR
SKIES. HOWEVER...TEMPS WILL LEVEL OFF AND POSSIBLY EVEN RISE LATE
TONIGHT...AS CLOUDS INCREASE DUE TO THE PASSING BOUNDARY. MIN
TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS EVERYWHERE...WITH SOME BELOW
ZERO READINGS IN THE ADIRONDACKS.

TOMORROW...THE MOISTURE STARVED CLIPPER AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION.  THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL STALL NEAR THE PA/MA BORDER AND CNTRL NJ WESTWARD INTO THE
MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY.  A 1030 HPA OR SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL BUILD IN
FROM SE OF JAMES BAY.  THE SKIES MAY BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY OVER THE
NRN TIER OF THE FCST AREA.  H850 TEMPS FALL TO -10C TO -15C NORTH
AND WEST OF ALBANY...AND -8C TO -10C TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.  MAX
TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN TODAY...BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL BY
10 TO 15 DEGREES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND U20S FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION SOUTH AND EAST AND TEENS TO LOWER 20S TO THE NORTH AND
WEST...WITH SOME SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE SRN DACKS.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE SRN TIER IN THE AFTERNOON...AND
WILL THICKEN AND LOWER TOWARDS 6 PM.  SOME LIGHT OVER RUNNING
SNOWFALL MAY REACH THE SE CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY BTWN 4-6
PM. SOME SLIGHT AND LOW CHC POPS WERE INTRODUCED THERE...BUT A DRY
COLUMN MAY YIELD QUITE A BIT OF VIRGA AT THE ONSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AS A VIGOROUS
NORTHERN STEAM SHORT WAVE COMBINES WITH SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE.
THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY
AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING.


ARCTIC HIGH WILL CONTINUE WEAKEN SUNDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
TO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO TRACK EASTWARD AND MOVE OFF THE DELMARVA COAST ON MONDAY. THERE
HAS BEEN GUIDANCE DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AS
IT HEADS OFFSHORE. THE GFS NOW HAS THE LOW MOVING ALONG THE COAST
ACROSS THE NEW YORK CITY AND LONG ISLAND WHILE THE NAM AND ECMWF
REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE. THE GUIDANCE DOES CONTINUE TO KEEP THE SYSTEM
PROGRESSIVE WITH AN OPEN WAVE ALOFT.

SNOW RATIOS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST ARE EXPECTED
TO START OUT HIGH THEN TRENDED TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY...WHILE RATIOS
WILL REMAIN HIGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA ESPECIALLY AS YOU
HEAD NORTHWARD. THE ENSEMBLE PROBABILISTIC FOR SNOW RATIOS INDICATE
60+% FOR ALBANY AND 64+% FOR GLENS FALLS TO HAVE RATIOS OF 15:1 OR
GREATER.

ALL THIS LEADS TO CONFIDENCE TO UPGRADE THE WATCH TO A WARNING AND
TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...NORTHERN HERKIMER...HAMILTON...NORTHERN WARREN AND NORTHERN
WASHINGTON COUNTIES.

BASED ON THE FORECASTED ONSET OF SNOW HAVE MADE THE START TIME FOR
THE WARNING 9 PM SUNDAY AND THE WATCH AT MIDNIGHT. BOTH RUN
THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY.

THE HEAVIEST MOST INTENSE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM ABOUT 09Z-15Z
MONDAY...IMPACTING THE MORNING COMMUTE TIME...WHEN THE LOW LEVEL JET
WILL BE AT ITS STRONGEST AT 60-70 KNOTS AND PASSING TO OUR SOUTH.
SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES AN HOUR CAN BE EXPECTED. THE SNOW
WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON TAPERING OFF LATE.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS STORM ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR. THIS ALONG
WITH A FRESH SNOW COVER...TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT ARE ANTICIPATED
TO DROP TO ZERO OR BELOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH 10 DEGREES
BELOW ZERO AND COLDER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. MAY NEED
WIND CHILL WARNING AND ADVISORIES FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...HAVE HIGHLIGHTED IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND QUICKLY SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. ANOTHER
COLD DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS...15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL CONTINUE WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND ANOTHER CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A CLIPPER
SYSTEM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE
APPROACHING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC
LIFT PRIMARILY CONFINED TO UPSLOPE-FAVORED AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. ANY ACCUMULATIONS TUESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT...GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH.

THE CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED BETTER DYNAMICS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY...WITH A LIGHT SNOWFALL EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF THE REGION. EXACT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN AT
THIS TIME...BUT A COUPLE OF INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA IS
POSSIBLE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. AS THE CLIPPER SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY. THIS ARCTIC FRONT WILL USHER IN ANOTHER BITTERLY COLD
AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY IMPACT
THE REGION HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL MODERATE SOMEWHAT INTO THE MID 20S
TO LOW 30S ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM...BUT ONLY
RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO UPPER TEENS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
SOME LOCATIONS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY POSSIBLY REACHING INTO THE
LOW 20S. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE 20S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS SATURDAY...WITH UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 5 BELOW ZERO TO 5
ABOVE ZERO...AND ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM NEAR ZERO TO THE SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS TO LOW AND MID TEENS ACROSS
THE CAPITAL REGION...WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MID HUDSON VALLEY.
THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES 5 TO
15 BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE ARCTIC
FRONT. WIND CHILL HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED AS WELL AS A LIGHT
WESTERLY WIND ALLOWS WIND CHILL VALUES TO PLUMMET TO 15 TO 30 BELOW
ZERO. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 5 BELOW ZERO TO
5 ABOVE ZERO WITH WIND CHILLS WELL BELOW ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
JUST SOME PASSING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT THANKS TO A MOISTURE STARVED
ARCTIC COLD FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. W-NW WINDS AT
5-10 KTS THIS EVENING WILL DIMINISH AND BE LIGHT AND NEARLY CALM
FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY...AS SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED BENEATH AN INVERSION. AS A RESULT...BKN
CIGS AROUND 3500-5000 FT WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
MEANWHILE...MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ALSO INCREASE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE MIDWEST. SNOWFALL ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN AT THE TAF SITES ON SUNDAY
EVENING...BUT WILL LIKELY NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER 00Z MONDAY. LIGHT
N-NE WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL BE AROUND 5 KTS FOR ALL SITES.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-MON: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SN.
MON NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
TUE-TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WED-WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO THE AREA

CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH ICE THICKEN ON
RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ALBANY SEASON SNOWFALL TOTAL THROUGH JANUARY 30TH STANDS AT 40 INCHES
WHICH IS 6.4 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     NYZ038>041-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ032-033-042-043.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...IAA









000
FXUS61 KALY 312351
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
651 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE ARCTIC HIGH ACROSS THE REGION WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. IT
WILL NOT BE AS COLD...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE BELOW
NORMAL. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO THE AREA. THE
HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 651 PM EST...SKIES ARE MAINLY CLEAR OVER MUCH OF THE REGION.
THE EXCEPTION IS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND UPPER MOHAWK
VALLEY...WHERE A BATCH OF LOWER CLOUDS ARE MOVING INTO THE AREA
FROM CENTRAL NY. THESE CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL BE CROSSING OUR AREA OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH LITTLE
MOISTURE AND DRY LOW LEVELS...LITTLE PRECIP WILL OCCUR. CANNOT
RULE OUT A SNOW SHOWER OR FLURRY FOR FAR NORTHWESTERN
AREAS...OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY...WITH JUST SOME PASSING CLOUDS.

TEMPS WILL DROP OFF THIS EVENING WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND CLEAR
SKIES. HOWEVER...TEMPS WILL LEVEL OFF AND POSSIBLY EVEN RISE LATE
TONIGHT...AS CLOUDS INCREASE DUE TO THE PASSING BOUNDARY. MIN
TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS EVERYWHERE...WITH SOME BELOW
ZERO READINGS IN THE ADIRONDACKS.

TOMORROW...THE MOISTURE STARVED CLIPPER AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION.  THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL STALL NEAR THE PA/MA BORDER AND CNTRL NJ WESTWARD INTO THE
MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY.  A 1030 HPA OR SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL BUILD IN
FROM SE OF JAMES BAY.  THE SKIES MAY BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY OVER THE
NRN TIER OF THE FCST AREA.  H850 TEMPS FALL TO -10C TO -15C NORTH
AND WEST OF ALBANY...AND -8C TO -10C TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.  MAX
TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN TODAY...BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL BY
10 TO 15 DEGREES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND U20S FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION SOUTH AND EAST AND TEENS TO LOWER 20S TO THE NORTH AND
WEST...WITH SOME SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE SRN DACKS.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE SRN TIER IN THE AFTERNOON...AND
WILL THICKEN AND LOWER TOWARDS 6 PM.  SOME LIGHT OVER RUNNING
SNOWFALL MAY REACH THE SE CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY BTWN 4-6
PM. SOME SLIGHT AND LOW CHC POPS WERE INTRODUCED THERE...BUT A DRY
COLUMN MAY YIELD QUITE A BIT OF VIRGA AT THE ONSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AS A VIGOROUS
NORTHERN STEAM SHORT WAVE COMBINES WITH SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE.
THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY
AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING.


ARCTIC HIGH WILL CONTINUE WEAKEN SUNDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
TO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO TRACK EASTWARD AND MOVE OFF THE DELMARVA COAST ON MONDAY. THERE
HAS BEEN GUIDANCE DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AS
IT HEADS OFFSHORE. THE GFS NOW HAS THE LOW MOVING ALONG THE COAST
ACROSS THE NEW YORK CITY AND LONG ISLAND WHILE THE NAM AND ECMWF
REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE. THE GUIDANCE DOES CONTINUE TO KEEP THE SYSTEM
PROGRESSIVE WITH AN OPEN WAVE ALOFT.

SNOW RATIOS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST ARE EXPECTED
TO START OUT HIGH THEN TRENDED TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY...WHILE RATIOS
WILL REMAIN HIGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA ESPECIALLY AS YOU
HEAD NORTHWARD. THE ENSEMBLE PROBABILISTIC FOR SNOW RATIOS INDICATE
60+% FOR ALBANY AND 64+% FOR GLENS FALLS TO HAVE RATIOS OF 15:1 OR
GREATER.

ALL THIS LEADS TO CONFIDENCE TO UPGRADE THE WATCH TO A WARNING AND
TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...NORTHERN HERKIMER...HAMILTON...NORTHERN WARREN AND NORTHERN
WASHINGTON COUNTIES.

BASED ON THE FORECASTED ONSET OF SNOW HAVE MADE THE START TIME FOR
THE WARNING 9 PM SUNDAY AND THE WATCH AT MIDNIGHT. BOTH RUN
THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY.

THE HEAVIEST MOST INTENSE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM ABOUT 09Z-15Z
MONDAY...IMPACTING THE MORNING COMMUTE TIME...WHEN THE LOW LEVEL JET
WILL BE AT ITS STRONGEST AT 60-70 KNOTS AND PASSING TO OUR SOUTH.
SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES AN HOUR CAN BE EXPECTED. THE SNOW
WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON TAPERING OFF LATE.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS STORM ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR. THIS ALONG
WITH A FRESH SNOW COVER...TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT ARE ANTICIPATED
TO DROP TO ZERO OR BELOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH 10 DEGREES
BELOW ZERO AND COLDER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. MAY NEED
WIND CHILL WARNING AND ADVISORIES FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...HAVE HIGHLIGHTED IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND QUICKLY SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. ANOTHER
COLD DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS...15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL CONTINUE WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND ANOTHER CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A CLIPPER
SYSTEM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE
APPROACHING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC
LIFT PRIMARILY CONFINED TO UPSLOPE-FAVORED AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. ANY ACCUMULATIONS TUESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT...GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH.

THE CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED BETTER DYNAMICS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY...WITH A LIGHT SNOWFALL EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF THE REGION. EXACT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN AT
THIS TIME...BUT A COUPLE OF INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA IS
POSSIBLE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. AS THE CLIPPER SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY. THIS ARCTIC FRONT WILL USHER IN ANOTHER BITTERLY COLD
AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY IMPACT
THE REGION HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL MODERATE SOMEWHAT INTO THE MID 20S
TO LOW 30S ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM...BUT ONLY
RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO UPPER TEENS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
SOME LOCATIONS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY POSSIBLY REACHING INTO THE
LOW 20S. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE 20S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS SATURDAY...WITH UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 5 BELOW ZERO TO 5
ABOVE ZERO...AND ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM NEAR ZERO TO THE SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS TO LOW AND MID TEENS ACROSS
THE CAPITAL REGION...WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MID HUDSON VALLEY.
THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES 5 TO
15 BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE ARCTIC
FRONT. WIND CHILL HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED AS WELL AS A LIGHT
WESTERLY WIND ALLOWS WIND CHILL VALUES TO PLUMMET TO 15 TO 30 BELOW
ZERO. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 5 BELOW ZERO TO
5 ABOVE ZERO WITH WIND CHILLS WELL BELOW ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
JUST SOME PASSING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT THANKS TO A MOISTURE STARVED
ARCTIC COLD FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. W-NW WINDS AT
5-10 KTS THIS EVENING WILL DIMINISH AND BE LIGHT AND NEARLY CALM
FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY...AS SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED BENEATH AN INVERSION. AS A RESULT...BKN
CIGS AROUND 3500-5000 FT WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
MEANWHILE...MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ALSO INCREASE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE MIDWEST. SNOWFALL ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN AT THE TAF SITES ON SUNDAY
EVENING...BUT WILL LIKELY NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER 00Z MONDAY. LIGHT
N-NE WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL BE AROUND 5 KTS FOR ALL SITES.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-MON: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SN.
MON NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
TUE-TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WED-WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO THE AREA

CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH ICE THICKEN ON
RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ALBANY SEASON SNOWFALL TOTAL THROUGH JANUARY 30TH STANDS AT 40 INCHES
WHICH IS 6.4 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     NYZ038>041-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ032-033-042-043.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...IAA









000
FXUS61 KALY 312351
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
651 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE ARCTIC HIGH ACROSS THE REGION WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. IT
WILL NOT BE AS COLD...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE BELOW
NORMAL. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO THE AREA. THE
HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 651 PM EST...SKIES ARE MAINLY CLEAR OVER MUCH OF THE REGION.
THE EXCEPTION IS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND UPPER MOHAWK
VALLEY...WHERE A BATCH OF LOWER CLOUDS ARE MOVING INTO THE AREA
FROM CENTRAL NY. THESE CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL BE CROSSING OUR AREA OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH LITTLE
MOISTURE AND DRY LOW LEVELS...LITTLE PRECIP WILL OCCUR. CANNOT
RULE OUT A SNOW SHOWER OR FLURRY FOR FAR NORTHWESTERN
AREAS...OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY...WITH JUST SOME PASSING CLOUDS.

TEMPS WILL DROP OFF THIS EVENING WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND CLEAR
SKIES. HOWEVER...TEMPS WILL LEVEL OFF AND POSSIBLY EVEN RISE LATE
TONIGHT...AS CLOUDS INCREASE DUE TO THE PASSING BOUNDARY. MIN
TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS EVERYWHERE...WITH SOME BELOW
ZERO READINGS IN THE ADIRONDACKS.

TOMORROW...THE MOISTURE STARVED CLIPPER AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION.  THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL STALL NEAR THE PA/MA BORDER AND CNTRL NJ WESTWARD INTO THE
MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY.  A 1030 HPA OR SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL BUILD IN
FROM SE OF JAMES BAY.  THE SKIES MAY BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY OVER THE
NRN TIER OF THE FCST AREA.  H850 TEMPS FALL TO -10C TO -15C NORTH
AND WEST OF ALBANY...AND -8C TO -10C TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.  MAX
TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN TODAY...BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL BY
10 TO 15 DEGREES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND U20S FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION SOUTH AND EAST AND TEENS TO LOWER 20S TO THE NORTH AND
WEST...WITH SOME SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE SRN DACKS.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE SRN TIER IN THE AFTERNOON...AND
WILL THICKEN AND LOWER TOWARDS 6 PM.  SOME LIGHT OVER RUNNING
SNOWFALL MAY REACH THE SE CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY BTWN 4-6
PM. SOME SLIGHT AND LOW CHC POPS WERE INTRODUCED THERE...BUT A DRY
COLUMN MAY YIELD QUITE A BIT OF VIRGA AT THE ONSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AS A VIGOROUS
NORTHERN STEAM SHORT WAVE COMBINES WITH SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE.
THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY
AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING.


ARCTIC HIGH WILL CONTINUE WEAKEN SUNDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
TO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO TRACK EASTWARD AND MOVE OFF THE DELMARVA COAST ON MONDAY. THERE
HAS BEEN GUIDANCE DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AS
IT HEADS OFFSHORE. THE GFS NOW HAS THE LOW MOVING ALONG THE COAST
ACROSS THE NEW YORK CITY AND LONG ISLAND WHILE THE NAM AND ECMWF
REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE. THE GUIDANCE DOES CONTINUE TO KEEP THE SYSTEM
PROGRESSIVE WITH AN OPEN WAVE ALOFT.

SNOW RATIOS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST ARE EXPECTED
TO START OUT HIGH THEN TRENDED TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY...WHILE RATIOS
WILL REMAIN HIGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA ESPECIALLY AS YOU
HEAD NORTHWARD. THE ENSEMBLE PROBABILISTIC FOR SNOW RATIOS INDICATE
60+% FOR ALBANY AND 64+% FOR GLENS FALLS TO HAVE RATIOS OF 15:1 OR
GREATER.

ALL THIS LEADS TO CONFIDENCE TO UPGRADE THE WATCH TO A WARNING AND
TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...NORTHERN HERKIMER...HAMILTON...NORTHERN WARREN AND NORTHERN
WASHINGTON COUNTIES.

BASED ON THE FORECASTED ONSET OF SNOW HAVE MADE THE START TIME FOR
THE WARNING 9 PM SUNDAY AND THE WATCH AT MIDNIGHT. BOTH RUN
THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY.

THE HEAVIEST MOST INTENSE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM ABOUT 09Z-15Z
MONDAY...IMPACTING THE MORNING COMMUTE TIME...WHEN THE LOW LEVEL JET
WILL BE AT ITS STRONGEST AT 60-70 KNOTS AND PASSING TO OUR SOUTH.
SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES AN HOUR CAN BE EXPECTED. THE SNOW
WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON TAPERING OFF LATE.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS STORM ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR. THIS ALONG
WITH A FRESH SNOW COVER...TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT ARE ANTICIPATED
TO DROP TO ZERO OR BELOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH 10 DEGREES
BELOW ZERO AND COLDER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. MAY NEED
WIND CHILL WARNING AND ADVISORIES FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...HAVE HIGHLIGHTED IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND QUICKLY SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. ANOTHER
COLD DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS...15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL CONTINUE WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND ANOTHER CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A CLIPPER
SYSTEM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE
APPROACHING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC
LIFT PRIMARILY CONFINED TO UPSLOPE-FAVORED AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. ANY ACCUMULATIONS TUESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT...GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH.

THE CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED BETTER DYNAMICS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY...WITH A LIGHT SNOWFALL EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF THE REGION. EXACT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN AT
THIS TIME...BUT A COUPLE OF INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA IS
POSSIBLE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. AS THE CLIPPER SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY. THIS ARCTIC FRONT WILL USHER IN ANOTHER BITTERLY COLD
AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY IMPACT
THE REGION HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL MODERATE SOMEWHAT INTO THE MID 20S
TO LOW 30S ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM...BUT ONLY
RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO UPPER TEENS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
SOME LOCATIONS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY POSSIBLY REACHING INTO THE
LOW 20S. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE 20S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS SATURDAY...WITH UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 5 BELOW ZERO TO 5
ABOVE ZERO...AND ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM NEAR ZERO TO THE SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS TO LOW AND MID TEENS ACROSS
THE CAPITAL REGION...WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MID HUDSON VALLEY.
THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES 5 TO
15 BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE ARCTIC
FRONT. WIND CHILL HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED AS WELL AS A LIGHT
WESTERLY WIND ALLOWS WIND CHILL VALUES TO PLUMMET TO 15 TO 30 BELOW
ZERO. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 5 BELOW ZERO TO
5 ABOVE ZERO WITH WIND CHILLS WELL BELOW ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
JUST SOME PASSING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT THANKS TO A MOISTURE STARVED
ARCTIC COLD FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. W-NW WINDS AT
5-10 KTS THIS EVENING WILL DIMINISH AND BE LIGHT AND NEARLY CALM
FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY...AS SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED BENEATH AN INVERSION. AS A RESULT...BKN
CIGS AROUND 3500-5000 FT WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
MEANWHILE...MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ALSO INCREASE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE MIDWEST. SNOWFALL ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN AT THE TAF SITES ON SUNDAY
EVENING...BUT WILL LIKELY NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER 00Z MONDAY. LIGHT
N-NE WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL BE AROUND 5 KTS FOR ALL SITES.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-MON: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SN.
MON NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
TUE-TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WED-WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO THE AREA

CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH ICE THICKEN ON
RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ALBANY SEASON SNOWFALL TOTAL THROUGH JANUARY 30TH STANDS AT 40 INCHES
WHICH IS 6.4 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     NYZ038>041-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ032-033-042-043.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...IAA









000
FXUS61 KBOX 312349
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
648 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

BLUSTERY AND VERY COLD CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW. A
MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT THE REGION VERY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY EVENING WITH HEAVY SNOW FOR MANY LOCATIONS. BITTERLY
COLD WIND CHILLS FOLLOW LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
MODERATING TEMPS WEDNESDAY THEN VERY COLD CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. A COASTAL STORM WILL PASS WELL SOUTH
OF NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE WEEK BUT WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

645 PM UPDATE...

CLEAR SKIES...VERY COLD TEMPS AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS EARLY THIS
EVENING.  STILL NEAR WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CAPE/ISLANDS...SO WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 2Z.  SHOULD SEE WINDS
GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
IN FACT...WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR...WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW LOW TEMPS TO FALL BELOW ZERO ACROSS NORTHWEST MA WITH DEEP
SNOW PACK IN PLACE. ENOUGH WIND ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN SHOULD
KEEP OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS IN THE LOWER TEENS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...

DEEPENING LOW WILL MOVE WELL TOWARDS THE MARITIMES TONIGHT ALLOWING
FOR WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING INTO THE REGION. STILL A DESCENT PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVERNIGHT...ESP ACROSS THE EAST COAST SO ANTICIPATE WIND
GUSTS TO REMAIN UP. HOWEVER ACROSS THE CT VALLEY REGION WINDS LOOK
TO DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT SO EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP WELL INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND MAY BE CLOSE TO ZERO ESP AT ORE. HOWEVER WITH LIGHT
WINDS...WIND CHILL ADV ARE NOT NEEDED. BIGGEST ISSUE WITH THESE
COOLING TEMPS IS THE SKY COVER. AHEAD OF APPROACHING ARCTIC
FRONT...MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH.

TOMORROW...

850MB ARCTIC FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TOMORROW. HOWEVER
TEMPS WILL BE WARMER THAN TODAY AS 925 MB TEMPS JUMP FROM -13C TO
-8C. EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE MID 20S TO PERHAPS THE LOW 30S
ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN. MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY WHICH WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER.
OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE CALMER AND DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAJOR WINTER STORM VERY LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON EVENING
* HEAVY SNOWFALL EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE REGION
* BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY SNOWFALL AMTS NEAR SOUTH COAST - PTYPE ISSUES
* BITTERLY COLD AIR LATE MON NIGHT - WIND CHILLS 15 TO 25 BELOW ZERO

DETAILS...

A MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND VERY LATE SUN
NIGHT INTO MONDAY EVENING.  ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA WILL COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
THE RESULT WILL BE STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER RUNNING THE
ARCTIC DOME AT THE SURFACE.  THEN AS THE LOW DEEPENS...MUCH OF THE
REGION WILL SEE SNOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM.  BIGGEST
UNCERTAINTY IS HOW MUCH OF THE REGION TRANSITIONS TO A PERIOD OF
MIXED PTYPE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE EVENT...CUTTING DOWN ON
POSSIBLE SNOW ACCUMS.

1) TIMING AND UNCERTAINTY

SNOW WILL LIKELY ARRIVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST VERY LATE SUN
EVENING IN OUR WESTERN ZONES AND AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE REST OF
THE REGION.  EXTREMELY TIGHT MID LEVEL THERMAL PACKING WILL ALLOW
SNOW TO QUICKLY BECOME HEAVY.  SNOW WILL FALL HEAVY MONDAY MORNING
AT 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR AND SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT THE AM RUSH HOUR.

THINGS THEN BECOME MORE UNCERTAIN LATER IN THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.  THE GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN SURGING WARM MID LEVEL AIR
TO THE MA PIKE...RESULTING IN A CHANGE TO A PERIOD OF SLEET/FREEZING
RAIN AND EVEN PLAIN RAIN ALONG THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.
THE NAM/ECMWF/GGEM APPEAR THE COLDEST KEEPING MOST AREAS HEAVY
SNOW...EXCEPT FOR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.  THE UKMET APPEARS TO BE IN
BETWEEN THE OTHER SOLUTIONS.  GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WILL BLEND THE
MODELS.  RIGHT NOW WERE THINKING TRANSITION AREA MAY GET BRIEFLY
NEAR OR PERHAPS JUST NORTH OF THE THE TAUNTON TO PROVIDENCE
CORRIDOR...BEFORE COLLAPSING SOUTHEAST.

REGARDLESS HOW FAR NORTH THE TRANSITION LINE GETS...MOST AREAS WILL
CHANGE BACK TO SNOW MON EVENING.  GIVEN CLOSED MID LEVEL CENTERS AND
VERY COLD NORTHEAST FLOW...COULD BE SOME OCEAN ENHANCEMENT ACROSS
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND FOR A TIME BEFORE SNOW ENDS.  BULK OF SNOW
SHOULD WIND DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT ALTHOUGH THE GGEM IS A BIT SLOWER.

2) SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS AND HEADLINES

WE ARE PRETTY CONFIDENT IN A HEAVY SNOWFALL FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION...EXCEPT FOR AREAS NEAR THE SOUTH COAST WHERE PTYPE ISSUES
MAYBE MORE PROBLEMATIC.  8 TO 14 INCHES EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION.  HAVE UPGRADED ALL AREAS FROM PROVIDENCE TO TAUNTON
NORTHWARD TO WINTER STORM WARNING/S WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON CRITERIA
BEING MET.  AREAS SOUTHEAST OF THAT LINE...THERE IS SOME MORE
UNCERTAINTY ESP CAPE/ISLANDS.  IF A LOT OF MIXING OCCURS THESE AREAS
MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH WARNING CRITERIA...BUT ITS STILL CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON MODEL TRENDS.  THEREFORE...WE HAVE HELD THE
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTH COAST AND THE ISLANDS.

3) STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW

NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 50 MPH EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS STORM INTENSIFIES AND PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES.  THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN POOR VISIBILITY ALONG WITH
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.  ITS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW LOCATIONS ALONG
THE COAST COULD SEE NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FOR A VERY SHORT
TIME...BUT STORM DOESN/T SEEM TO WARRANT THOSE TYPE OF HEADLINES.

4) BITTERLY COLD AIR MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

TEMPS WILL LIKELY PLUNGE BELOW ZERO TO 5 ABOVE ZERO IN MANY
LOCATIONS BY EARLY TUE MORNING.  THIS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS
VALUES BETWEEN 15 AND 25 BELOW ZERO. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* COLD PATTERN CONTINUES THRU NEXT WEEKEND
* CLIPPER LOW APPEARING MORE LIKELY THAN COASTAL LOW WED/THU

GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG 12Z DETERMINISTIC...12Z GEFS AND 00Z ECENS
ENSEMBLES THAT THE POLAR JET WILL DOMINATE THE NORTHERN TIER STATES
INCLUDING NEW ENGLAND THIS PERIOD. THIS COMBINED WITH STREAMS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNPHASED WILL SUPPORT MAINLY DRY WEATHER THIS
PERIOD. ONE CAVEAT WILL BE CLIPPER LOW ENTERING THE NORTHEAST
WED/WED NIGHT. EARLIER MODEL RUNS SUGGESTED SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT SOUTHWEST OF NEW ENGLAND...WITH
POSSIBLE COASTAL-OCEAN STORM IMPACTING OUR REGION AROUND THU.
HOWEVER LATEST GUID INCLUDING ENSEMBLES SUGGEST MID LEVEL TROUGH
WILL LACK SUFFICIENT AMPLITUDE TO BACK THE FLOW FOR A SECONDARY LOW
TO IMPACT THE REGION. THEREFORE LEANING TOWARD A MORE OFFSHORE TRACK
AND JUST A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE WED/WED NIGHT. HOWEVER AT
THIS TIME RANGE CAN/T BE TOO DETERMINISTIC. THUS WON`T TOTALLY
DISCOUNT CLOSER SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT.

AS FOR TEMPS...BITTERLY COLD TUE BEHIND DEPARTING MON NGT COASTAL
LOW. THEN COLD EASES WED AHEAD OF APPROACHING CLIPPER LOW FOLLOWED
BUT YET ANOTHER ARCTIC BLAST LATE IN THE WEEK BEHIND THE CLIPPER. AS
FOR INTO NEXT WEEKEND ENSEMBLE TRENDS SUGGEST TEMPS COLDER THAN
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM.../THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...VFR WITH GRADUAL DIMINISHING WIND.

SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR...BUT LOW PROB FOR AREAS OF MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.  VFR SUNDAY EVENING DETERIORATES TO IFR-LIFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW BY DAYBREAK MON AND CONTINUES
AT TIMES INTO MONDAY EVENING.  PTYPE MAY TRANSITION TO A PERIOD OF
SLEET/FREEZING RAIN/RAIN SOUTH OF MA TURNPIKE.  NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS
OF 30 TO 45 KNOTS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST LATER MON INTO MON
EVENING.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR ON
TUESDAY. COULD SEE SOME MVFR CIGS IN SCT SNOW SHOWERS ON
WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW RISK OF MVFR
ALONG SOUTHEAST MASS DEPENDING ON TRACK OF CLIPPER LOW.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...STRONG LOW PRESSURE PULLS FARTHER AWAY WITH WINDS
DIMINISHING BELOW GALE AFTER 06Z...BUT GUSTS 25-30 KT WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY LIKELY
CONTINUING...ESPECIALLY E MA COASTAL WATERS.

SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGHOUT THE DAY BUT EXPECT SCA
WAVES TO REMAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY WILL
PERSIST.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

***STRONG GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS/HIGH SEAS AND THE RISK OF HEAVY
  FREEZING SPRAY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT***

WINDS/SEAS QUICKLY RAMP UP VERY LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON AS LOW
PRESSURE INTENSIFIES NEAR THE SOUTH COAST. GALE WATCHES ISSUED FOR
EXPECTED 40+ KNOT NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS BY MON MORNING.
SEAS BUILD TO 15+ FEET ACROSS OUR EASTERN WATERS BY LATE MON
AFTERNOON/EVENING. IN ADDITION...BITTERLY COLD AIR MOVING OVER THE
WATERS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. HAVE ALSO ISSUED A FREEZING SPRAY WATCH.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE TO HIGH FORECAST
CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY...NW GALES LIKELY ALONG WITH FREEZING SPRAY...POSSIBLY
MODERATE TO HEAVY. MAINLY DRY WITH GOOD VSBY EXCEPT FAR OFFSHORE
WHERE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE COMMON.

WED...WINDS EASE AND BECOME SOUTHWEST AS CLIPPER LOW ENTERS THE
GREAT LAKES AND NY STATE. NOT AS COLD SO FREEZING SPRAY UNLIKELY.
VSBY MAY BRIEFLY LOWER IN A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW.

THU...ARCTIC FRONT WITH NW GALES BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE. MODERATE TO
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY POSSIBLE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
*** MINOR TO PERHAPS ISOLATED AREAS OF MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING
  POSSIBLE MON/MON NIGHT EASTERN MA COASTLINE ***

GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON SURFACE LOW TRACKING SOMEWHERE BETWEEN
NANTUCKET AND THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK WITH NAM THE FASTEST AND GFS
FARTHEST NORTHWEST. ECMWF SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE. MODEL CONSENSUS
BRINGS STRONGEST ONSHORE WINDS BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z...CLOSE TO LOW
TIDE. IF THIS TIMING HOLDS UP WORST CASE SCENARIO WOULD BE MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING.

THE FIRST TIDE CYCLE OF CONCERN IS THE MONDAY MID MORNING. HOWEVER
ALL WAVE GUID SUGGEST SEAS LESS THAN 10 FT AT HIGH TIDE GIVEN
ARRIVAL OF STRONGEST WINDS LATER DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS ALSO
YIELDS SURGE VALUES OF A FOOT OR LESS.

AS FOR THE MONDAY EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE...ASTRO TIDES ARE ABOUT A
1 FT LOWER. HOWEVER A STORM SURGE OF 1.5 TO 2.5 FT IS POSSIBLE.
ESTOFS AND ETSS ARE LOWER...SO I BLENDED THE TWO GUID SOURCES AND
ADDED 50 PERCENT TO COME UP WITH SURGE VALUES OF 1.5 TO 2.5 FT. IN
ADDITION...SEAS WILL LIKELY BUILD TO 15 TO 20 FT DURING THE EVENING
HIGH TIDE. ALL OF THESE FACTORS YIELD A MODERATE RISK OF MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING WITH A LOW RISK OF ISOLATED MODERATE FLOODING.

WHILE WINDS...SEAS AND STORM SURGE WILL BE LESS THAN THE PREVIOUS
COASTAL STORM THERE COULD STILL BE SOME MODEST IMPACT ESPECIALLY FOR
THOSE COMMUNITIES SUCH AS MARSHFIELD MA THAT WERE HIT HARD EARLIER
THIS WEEK WHERE COASTAL STRUCTURES SUCH AS SEAWALLS WERE DAMAGED.
GIVEN THE LOW TRACK IS CLOSE TO NANTUCKET THE GREATEST RISK OF
COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE FARTHER NORTHWARD FROM CAPE COD TO CAPE ANN
WITH PERHAPS THE HIGHEST RISK FROM HULL/COHASSET/SCITUATE/
MARSHFIELD/PLYMOUTH TO SANDWICH HARBOR.
/DUXBURY

GIVEN IT APPEARS MARGINAL FOR SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING AND STILL
48-60 HRS OUT IN TIME WILL HOLD OFF ON A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WITH EXTREMELY COLD AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW MONDAY
NIGHT...TEMPERATURES MAY FALL BACK CLOSE TO OR SURPASSING RECORD
LEVELS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AND THAT IS NOT TAKING INTO ACCOUNT
THE STRONG WINDS.

HERE ARE THE RECORD LOWS FOR TUESDAY 2/3...

BOSTON         -5 SET IN 1881
PROVIDENCE     -6 SET IN 1961
WORCESTER      -7 SET IN 1931, 1955 AND 1971
WINDSOR LOCKS  -3 SET IN 1955
BLUE HILL OBS  -7 SET IN 1955

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR MAZ020>024.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     MAZ002>019-026.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MAZ022>024.
RI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR RIZ005>008.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     RIZ001>004.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ231>235-237.
     HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR ANZ231>235-237-250-251-254>256.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ231-232-
     250-251-254-255.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ231-232-250-251-
     254>256.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ233>235-
     237.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ233>235-237.
     GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ230-236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ230-236.
     GALE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ250-251-254>256.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/FRANK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...FRANK/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...FRANK/DUNTEN
MARINE...NOCERA/FRANK/DUNTEN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NOCERA
CLIMATE...STAFF




000
FXUS61 KBOX 312349
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
648 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

BLUSTERY AND VERY COLD CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW. A
MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT THE REGION VERY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY EVENING WITH HEAVY SNOW FOR MANY LOCATIONS. BITTERLY
COLD WIND CHILLS FOLLOW LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
MODERATING TEMPS WEDNESDAY THEN VERY COLD CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. A COASTAL STORM WILL PASS WELL SOUTH
OF NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE WEEK BUT WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

645 PM UPDATE...

CLEAR SKIES...VERY COLD TEMPS AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS EARLY THIS
EVENING.  STILL NEAR WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CAPE/ISLANDS...SO WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 2Z.  SHOULD SEE WINDS
GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
IN FACT...WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR...WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW LOW TEMPS TO FALL BELOW ZERO ACROSS NORTHWEST MA WITH DEEP
SNOW PACK IN PLACE. ENOUGH WIND ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN SHOULD
KEEP OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS IN THE LOWER TEENS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...

DEEPENING LOW WILL MOVE WELL TOWARDS THE MARITIMES TONIGHT ALLOWING
FOR WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING INTO THE REGION. STILL A DESCENT PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVERNIGHT...ESP ACROSS THE EAST COAST SO ANTICIPATE WIND
GUSTS TO REMAIN UP. HOWEVER ACROSS THE CT VALLEY REGION WINDS LOOK
TO DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT SO EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP WELL INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND MAY BE CLOSE TO ZERO ESP AT ORE. HOWEVER WITH LIGHT
WINDS...WIND CHILL ADV ARE NOT NEEDED. BIGGEST ISSUE WITH THESE
COOLING TEMPS IS THE SKY COVER. AHEAD OF APPROACHING ARCTIC
FRONT...MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH.

TOMORROW...

850MB ARCTIC FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TOMORROW. HOWEVER
TEMPS WILL BE WARMER THAN TODAY AS 925 MB TEMPS JUMP FROM -13C TO
-8C. EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE MID 20S TO PERHAPS THE LOW 30S
ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN. MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY WHICH WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER.
OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE CALMER AND DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAJOR WINTER STORM VERY LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON EVENING
* HEAVY SNOWFALL EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE REGION
* BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY SNOWFALL AMTS NEAR SOUTH COAST - PTYPE ISSUES
* BITTERLY COLD AIR LATE MON NIGHT - WIND CHILLS 15 TO 25 BELOW ZERO

DETAILS...

A MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND VERY LATE SUN
NIGHT INTO MONDAY EVENING.  ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA WILL COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
THE RESULT WILL BE STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER RUNNING THE
ARCTIC DOME AT THE SURFACE.  THEN AS THE LOW DEEPENS...MUCH OF THE
REGION WILL SEE SNOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM.  BIGGEST
UNCERTAINTY IS HOW MUCH OF THE REGION TRANSITIONS TO A PERIOD OF
MIXED PTYPE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE EVENT...CUTTING DOWN ON
POSSIBLE SNOW ACCUMS.

1) TIMING AND UNCERTAINTY

SNOW WILL LIKELY ARRIVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST VERY LATE SUN
EVENING IN OUR WESTERN ZONES AND AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE REST OF
THE REGION.  EXTREMELY TIGHT MID LEVEL THERMAL PACKING WILL ALLOW
SNOW TO QUICKLY BECOME HEAVY.  SNOW WILL FALL HEAVY MONDAY MORNING
AT 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR AND SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT THE AM RUSH HOUR.

THINGS THEN BECOME MORE UNCERTAIN LATER IN THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.  THE GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN SURGING WARM MID LEVEL AIR
TO THE MA PIKE...RESULTING IN A CHANGE TO A PERIOD OF SLEET/FREEZING
RAIN AND EVEN PLAIN RAIN ALONG THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.
THE NAM/ECMWF/GGEM APPEAR THE COLDEST KEEPING MOST AREAS HEAVY
SNOW...EXCEPT FOR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.  THE UKMET APPEARS TO BE IN
BETWEEN THE OTHER SOLUTIONS.  GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WILL BLEND THE
MODELS.  RIGHT NOW WERE THINKING TRANSITION AREA MAY GET BRIEFLY
NEAR OR PERHAPS JUST NORTH OF THE THE TAUNTON TO PROVIDENCE
CORRIDOR...BEFORE COLLAPSING SOUTHEAST.

REGARDLESS HOW FAR NORTH THE TRANSITION LINE GETS...MOST AREAS WILL
CHANGE BACK TO SNOW MON EVENING.  GIVEN CLOSED MID LEVEL CENTERS AND
VERY COLD NORTHEAST FLOW...COULD BE SOME OCEAN ENHANCEMENT ACROSS
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND FOR A TIME BEFORE SNOW ENDS.  BULK OF SNOW
SHOULD WIND DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT ALTHOUGH THE GGEM IS A BIT SLOWER.

2) SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS AND HEADLINES

WE ARE PRETTY CONFIDENT IN A HEAVY SNOWFALL FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION...EXCEPT FOR AREAS NEAR THE SOUTH COAST WHERE PTYPE ISSUES
MAYBE MORE PROBLEMATIC.  8 TO 14 INCHES EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION.  HAVE UPGRADED ALL AREAS FROM PROVIDENCE TO TAUNTON
NORTHWARD TO WINTER STORM WARNING/S WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON CRITERIA
BEING MET.  AREAS SOUTHEAST OF THAT LINE...THERE IS SOME MORE
UNCERTAINTY ESP CAPE/ISLANDS.  IF A LOT OF MIXING OCCURS THESE AREAS
MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH WARNING CRITERIA...BUT ITS STILL CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON MODEL TRENDS.  THEREFORE...WE HAVE HELD THE
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTH COAST AND THE ISLANDS.

3) STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW

NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 50 MPH EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS STORM INTENSIFIES AND PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES.  THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN POOR VISIBILITY ALONG WITH
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.  ITS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW LOCATIONS ALONG
THE COAST COULD SEE NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FOR A VERY SHORT
TIME...BUT STORM DOESN/T SEEM TO WARRANT THOSE TYPE OF HEADLINES.

4) BITTERLY COLD AIR MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

TEMPS WILL LIKELY PLUNGE BELOW ZERO TO 5 ABOVE ZERO IN MANY
LOCATIONS BY EARLY TUE MORNING.  THIS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS
VALUES BETWEEN 15 AND 25 BELOW ZERO. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* COLD PATTERN CONTINUES THRU NEXT WEEKEND
* CLIPPER LOW APPEARING MORE LIKELY THAN COASTAL LOW WED/THU

GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG 12Z DETERMINISTIC...12Z GEFS AND 00Z ECENS
ENSEMBLES THAT THE POLAR JET WILL DOMINATE THE NORTHERN TIER STATES
INCLUDING NEW ENGLAND THIS PERIOD. THIS COMBINED WITH STREAMS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNPHASED WILL SUPPORT MAINLY DRY WEATHER THIS
PERIOD. ONE CAVEAT WILL BE CLIPPER LOW ENTERING THE NORTHEAST
WED/WED NIGHT. EARLIER MODEL RUNS SUGGESTED SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT SOUTHWEST OF NEW ENGLAND...WITH
POSSIBLE COASTAL-OCEAN STORM IMPACTING OUR REGION AROUND THU.
HOWEVER LATEST GUID INCLUDING ENSEMBLES SUGGEST MID LEVEL TROUGH
WILL LACK SUFFICIENT AMPLITUDE TO BACK THE FLOW FOR A SECONDARY LOW
TO IMPACT THE REGION. THEREFORE LEANING TOWARD A MORE OFFSHORE TRACK
AND JUST A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE WED/WED NIGHT. HOWEVER AT
THIS TIME RANGE CAN/T BE TOO DETERMINISTIC. THUS WON`T TOTALLY
DISCOUNT CLOSER SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT.

AS FOR TEMPS...BITTERLY COLD TUE BEHIND DEPARTING MON NGT COASTAL
LOW. THEN COLD EASES WED AHEAD OF APPROACHING CLIPPER LOW FOLLOWED
BUT YET ANOTHER ARCTIC BLAST LATE IN THE WEEK BEHIND THE CLIPPER. AS
FOR INTO NEXT WEEKEND ENSEMBLE TRENDS SUGGEST TEMPS COLDER THAN
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM.../THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...VFR WITH GRADUAL DIMINISHING WIND.

SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR...BUT LOW PROB FOR AREAS OF MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.  VFR SUNDAY EVENING DETERIORATES TO IFR-LIFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW BY DAYBREAK MON AND CONTINUES
AT TIMES INTO MONDAY EVENING.  PTYPE MAY TRANSITION TO A PERIOD OF
SLEET/FREEZING RAIN/RAIN SOUTH OF MA TURNPIKE.  NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS
OF 30 TO 45 KNOTS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST LATER MON INTO MON
EVENING.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR ON
TUESDAY. COULD SEE SOME MVFR CIGS IN SCT SNOW SHOWERS ON
WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW RISK OF MVFR
ALONG SOUTHEAST MASS DEPENDING ON TRACK OF CLIPPER LOW.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...STRONG LOW PRESSURE PULLS FARTHER AWAY WITH WINDS
DIMINISHING BELOW GALE AFTER 06Z...BUT GUSTS 25-30 KT WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY LIKELY
CONTINUING...ESPECIALLY E MA COASTAL WATERS.

SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGHOUT THE DAY BUT EXPECT SCA
WAVES TO REMAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY WILL
PERSIST.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

***STRONG GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS/HIGH SEAS AND THE RISK OF HEAVY
  FREEZING SPRAY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT***

WINDS/SEAS QUICKLY RAMP UP VERY LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON AS LOW
PRESSURE INTENSIFIES NEAR THE SOUTH COAST. GALE WATCHES ISSUED FOR
EXPECTED 40+ KNOT NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS BY MON MORNING.
SEAS BUILD TO 15+ FEET ACROSS OUR EASTERN WATERS BY LATE MON
AFTERNOON/EVENING. IN ADDITION...BITTERLY COLD AIR MOVING OVER THE
WATERS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. HAVE ALSO ISSUED A FREEZING SPRAY WATCH.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE TO HIGH FORECAST
CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY...NW GALES LIKELY ALONG WITH FREEZING SPRAY...POSSIBLY
MODERATE TO HEAVY. MAINLY DRY WITH GOOD VSBY EXCEPT FAR OFFSHORE
WHERE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE COMMON.

WED...WINDS EASE AND BECOME SOUTHWEST AS CLIPPER LOW ENTERS THE
GREAT LAKES AND NY STATE. NOT AS COLD SO FREEZING SPRAY UNLIKELY.
VSBY MAY BRIEFLY LOWER IN A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW.

THU...ARCTIC FRONT WITH NW GALES BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE. MODERATE TO
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY POSSIBLE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
*** MINOR TO PERHAPS ISOLATED AREAS OF MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING
  POSSIBLE MON/MON NIGHT EASTERN MA COASTLINE ***

GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON SURFACE LOW TRACKING SOMEWHERE BETWEEN
NANTUCKET AND THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK WITH NAM THE FASTEST AND GFS
FARTHEST NORTHWEST. ECMWF SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE. MODEL CONSENSUS
BRINGS STRONGEST ONSHORE WINDS BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z...CLOSE TO LOW
TIDE. IF THIS TIMING HOLDS UP WORST CASE SCENARIO WOULD BE MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING.

THE FIRST TIDE CYCLE OF CONCERN IS THE MONDAY MID MORNING. HOWEVER
ALL WAVE GUID SUGGEST SEAS LESS THAN 10 FT AT HIGH TIDE GIVEN
ARRIVAL OF STRONGEST WINDS LATER DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS ALSO
YIELDS SURGE VALUES OF A FOOT OR LESS.

AS FOR THE MONDAY EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE...ASTRO TIDES ARE ABOUT A
1 FT LOWER. HOWEVER A STORM SURGE OF 1.5 TO 2.5 FT IS POSSIBLE.
ESTOFS AND ETSS ARE LOWER...SO I BLENDED THE TWO GUID SOURCES AND
ADDED 50 PERCENT TO COME UP WITH SURGE VALUES OF 1.5 TO 2.5 FT. IN
ADDITION...SEAS WILL LIKELY BUILD TO 15 TO 20 FT DURING THE EVENING
HIGH TIDE. ALL OF THESE FACTORS YIELD A MODERATE RISK OF MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING WITH A LOW RISK OF ISOLATED MODERATE FLOODING.

WHILE WINDS...SEAS AND STORM SURGE WILL BE LESS THAN THE PREVIOUS
COASTAL STORM THERE COULD STILL BE SOME MODEST IMPACT ESPECIALLY FOR
THOSE COMMUNITIES SUCH AS MARSHFIELD MA THAT WERE HIT HARD EARLIER
THIS WEEK WHERE COASTAL STRUCTURES SUCH AS SEAWALLS WERE DAMAGED.
GIVEN THE LOW TRACK IS CLOSE TO NANTUCKET THE GREATEST RISK OF
COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE FARTHER NORTHWARD FROM CAPE COD TO CAPE ANN
WITH PERHAPS THE HIGHEST RISK FROM HULL/COHASSET/SCITUATE/
MARSHFIELD/PLYMOUTH TO SANDWICH HARBOR.
/DUXBURY

GIVEN IT APPEARS MARGINAL FOR SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING AND STILL
48-60 HRS OUT IN TIME WILL HOLD OFF ON A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WITH EXTREMELY COLD AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW MONDAY
NIGHT...TEMPERATURES MAY FALL BACK CLOSE TO OR SURPASSING RECORD
LEVELS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AND THAT IS NOT TAKING INTO ACCOUNT
THE STRONG WINDS.

HERE ARE THE RECORD LOWS FOR TUESDAY 2/3...

BOSTON         -5 SET IN 1881
PROVIDENCE     -6 SET IN 1961
WORCESTER      -7 SET IN 1931, 1955 AND 1971
WINDSOR LOCKS  -3 SET IN 1955
BLUE HILL OBS  -7 SET IN 1955

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR MAZ020>024.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     MAZ002>019-026.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MAZ022>024.
RI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR RIZ005>008.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     RIZ001>004.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ231>235-237.
     HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR ANZ231>235-237-250-251-254>256.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ231-232-
     250-251-254-255.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ231-232-250-251-
     254>256.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ233>235-
     237.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ233>235-237.
     GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ230-236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ230-236.
     GALE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ250-251-254>256.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/FRANK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...FRANK/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...FRANK/DUNTEN
MARINE...NOCERA/FRANK/DUNTEN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NOCERA
CLIMATE...STAFF




000
FXUS61 KBOX 312349
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
648 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

BLUSTERY AND VERY COLD CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW. A
MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT THE REGION VERY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY EVENING WITH HEAVY SNOW FOR MANY LOCATIONS. BITTERLY
COLD WIND CHILLS FOLLOW LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
MODERATING TEMPS WEDNESDAY THEN VERY COLD CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. A COASTAL STORM WILL PASS WELL SOUTH
OF NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE WEEK BUT WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

645 PM UPDATE...

CLEAR SKIES...VERY COLD TEMPS AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS EARLY THIS
EVENING.  STILL NEAR WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CAPE/ISLANDS...SO WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 2Z.  SHOULD SEE WINDS
GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
IN FACT...WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR...WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW LOW TEMPS TO FALL BELOW ZERO ACROSS NORTHWEST MA WITH DEEP
SNOW PACK IN PLACE. ENOUGH WIND ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN SHOULD
KEEP OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS IN THE LOWER TEENS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...

DEEPENING LOW WILL MOVE WELL TOWARDS THE MARITIMES TONIGHT ALLOWING
FOR WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING INTO THE REGION. STILL A DESCENT PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVERNIGHT...ESP ACROSS THE EAST COAST SO ANTICIPATE WIND
GUSTS TO REMAIN UP. HOWEVER ACROSS THE CT VALLEY REGION WINDS LOOK
TO DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT SO EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP WELL INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND MAY BE CLOSE TO ZERO ESP AT ORE. HOWEVER WITH LIGHT
WINDS...WIND CHILL ADV ARE NOT NEEDED. BIGGEST ISSUE WITH THESE
COOLING TEMPS IS THE SKY COVER. AHEAD OF APPROACHING ARCTIC
FRONT...MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH.

TOMORROW...

850MB ARCTIC FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TOMORROW. HOWEVER
TEMPS WILL BE WARMER THAN TODAY AS 925 MB TEMPS JUMP FROM -13C TO
-8C. EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE MID 20S TO PERHAPS THE LOW 30S
ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN. MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY WHICH WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER.
OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE CALMER AND DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAJOR WINTER STORM VERY LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON EVENING
* HEAVY SNOWFALL EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE REGION
* BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY SNOWFALL AMTS NEAR SOUTH COAST - PTYPE ISSUES
* BITTERLY COLD AIR LATE MON NIGHT - WIND CHILLS 15 TO 25 BELOW ZERO

DETAILS...

A MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND VERY LATE SUN
NIGHT INTO MONDAY EVENING.  ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA WILL COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
THE RESULT WILL BE STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER RUNNING THE
ARCTIC DOME AT THE SURFACE.  THEN AS THE LOW DEEPENS...MUCH OF THE
REGION WILL SEE SNOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM.  BIGGEST
UNCERTAINTY IS HOW MUCH OF THE REGION TRANSITIONS TO A PERIOD OF
MIXED PTYPE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE EVENT...CUTTING DOWN ON
POSSIBLE SNOW ACCUMS.

1) TIMING AND UNCERTAINTY

SNOW WILL LIKELY ARRIVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST VERY LATE SUN
EVENING IN OUR WESTERN ZONES AND AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE REST OF
THE REGION.  EXTREMELY TIGHT MID LEVEL THERMAL PACKING WILL ALLOW
SNOW TO QUICKLY BECOME HEAVY.  SNOW WILL FALL HEAVY MONDAY MORNING
AT 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR AND SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT THE AM RUSH HOUR.

THINGS THEN BECOME MORE UNCERTAIN LATER IN THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.  THE GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN SURGING WARM MID LEVEL AIR
TO THE MA PIKE...RESULTING IN A CHANGE TO A PERIOD OF SLEET/FREEZING
RAIN AND EVEN PLAIN RAIN ALONG THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.
THE NAM/ECMWF/GGEM APPEAR THE COLDEST KEEPING MOST AREAS HEAVY
SNOW...EXCEPT FOR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.  THE UKMET APPEARS TO BE IN
BETWEEN THE OTHER SOLUTIONS.  GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WILL BLEND THE
MODELS.  RIGHT NOW WERE THINKING TRANSITION AREA MAY GET BRIEFLY
NEAR OR PERHAPS JUST NORTH OF THE THE TAUNTON TO PROVIDENCE
CORRIDOR...BEFORE COLLAPSING SOUTHEAST.

REGARDLESS HOW FAR NORTH THE TRANSITION LINE GETS...MOST AREAS WILL
CHANGE BACK TO SNOW MON EVENING.  GIVEN CLOSED MID LEVEL CENTERS AND
VERY COLD NORTHEAST FLOW...COULD BE SOME OCEAN ENHANCEMENT ACROSS
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND FOR A TIME BEFORE SNOW ENDS.  BULK OF SNOW
SHOULD WIND DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT ALTHOUGH THE GGEM IS A BIT SLOWER.

2) SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS AND HEADLINES

WE ARE PRETTY CONFIDENT IN A HEAVY SNOWFALL FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION...EXCEPT FOR AREAS NEAR THE SOUTH COAST WHERE PTYPE ISSUES
MAYBE MORE PROBLEMATIC.  8 TO 14 INCHES EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION.  HAVE UPGRADED ALL AREAS FROM PROVIDENCE TO TAUNTON
NORTHWARD TO WINTER STORM WARNING/S WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON CRITERIA
BEING MET.  AREAS SOUTHEAST OF THAT LINE...THERE IS SOME MORE
UNCERTAINTY ESP CAPE/ISLANDS.  IF A LOT OF MIXING OCCURS THESE AREAS
MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH WARNING CRITERIA...BUT ITS STILL CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON MODEL TRENDS.  THEREFORE...WE HAVE HELD THE
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTH COAST AND THE ISLANDS.

3) STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW

NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 50 MPH EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS STORM INTENSIFIES AND PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES.  THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN POOR VISIBILITY ALONG WITH
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.  ITS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW LOCATIONS ALONG
THE COAST COULD SEE NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FOR A VERY SHORT
TIME...BUT STORM DOESN/T SEEM TO WARRANT THOSE TYPE OF HEADLINES.

4) BITTERLY COLD AIR MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

TEMPS WILL LIKELY PLUNGE BELOW ZERO TO 5 ABOVE ZERO IN MANY
LOCATIONS BY EARLY TUE MORNING.  THIS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS
VALUES BETWEEN 15 AND 25 BELOW ZERO. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* COLD PATTERN CONTINUES THRU NEXT WEEKEND
* CLIPPER LOW APPEARING MORE LIKELY THAN COASTAL LOW WED/THU

GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG 12Z DETERMINISTIC...12Z GEFS AND 00Z ECENS
ENSEMBLES THAT THE POLAR JET WILL DOMINATE THE NORTHERN TIER STATES
INCLUDING NEW ENGLAND THIS PERIOD. THIS COMBINED WITH STREAMS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNPHASED WILL SUPPORT MAINLY DRY WEATHER THIS
PERIOD. ONE CAVEAT WILL BE CLIPPER LOW ENTERING THE NORTHEAST
WED/WED NIGHT. EARLIER MODEL RUNS SUGGESTED SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT SOUTHWEST OF NEW ENGLAND...WITH
POSSIBLE COASTAL-OCEAN STORM IMPACTING OUR REGION AROUND THU.
HOWEVER LATEST GUID INCLUDING ENSEMBLES SUGGEST MID LEVEL TROUGH
WILL LACK SUFFICIENT AMPLITUDE TO BACK THE FLOW FOR A SECONDARY LOW
TO IMPACT THE REGION. THEREFORE LEANING TOWARD A MORE OFFSHORE TRACK
AND JUST A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE WED/WED NIGHT. HOWEVER AT
THIS TIME RANGE CAN/T BE TOO DETERMINISTIC. THUS WON`T TOTALLY
DISCOUNT CLOSER SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT.

AS FOR TEMPS...BITTERLY COLD TUE BEHIND DEPARTING MON NGT COASTAL
LOW. THEN COLD EASES WED AHEAD OF APPROACHING CLIPPER LOW FOLLOWED
BUT YET ANOTHER ARCTIC BLAST LATE IN THE WEEK BEHIND THE CLIPPER. AS
FOR INTO NEXT WEEKEND ENSEMBLE TRENDS SUGGEST TEMPS COLDER THAN
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM.../THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...VFR WITH GRADUAL DIMINISHING WIND.

SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR...BUT LOW PROB FOR AREAS OF MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.  VFR SUNDAY EVENING DETERIORATES TO IFR-LIFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW BY DAYBREAK MON AND CONTINUES
AT TIMES INTO MONDAY EVENING.  PTYPE MAY TRANSITION TO A PERIOD OF
SLEET/FREEZING RAIN/RAIN SOUTH OF MA TURNPIKE.  NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS
OF 30 TO 45 KNOTS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST LATER MON INTO MON
EVENING.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR ON
TUESDAY. COULD SEE SOME MVFR CIGS IN SCT SNOW SHOWERS ON
WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW RISK OF MVFR
ALONG SOUTHEAST MASS DEPENDING ON TRACK OF CLIPPER LOW.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...STRONG LOW PRESSURE PULLS FARTHER AWAY WITH WINDS
DIMINISHING BELOW GALE AFTER 06Z...BUT GUSTS 25-30 KT WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY LIKELY
CONTINUING...ESPECIALLY E MA COASTAL WATERS.

SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGHOUT THE DAY BUT EXPECT SCA
WAVES TO REMAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY WILL
PERSIST.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

***STRONG GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS/HIGH SEAS AND THE RISK OF HEAVY
  FREEZING SPRAY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT***

WINDS/SEAS QUICKLY RAMP UP VERY LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON AS LOW
PRESSURE INTENSIFIES NEAR THE SOUTH COAST. GALE WATCHES ISSUED FOR
EXPECTED 40+ KNOT NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS BY MON MORNING.
SEAS BUILD TO 15+ FEET ACROSS OUR EASTERN WATERS BY LATE MON
AFTERNOON/EVENING. IN ADDITION...BITTERLY COLD AIR MOVING OVER THE
WATERS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. HAVE ALSO ISSUED A FREEZING SPRAY WATCH.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE TO HIGH FORECAST
CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY...NW GALES LIKELY ALONG WITH FREEZING SPRAY...POSSIBLY
MODERATE TO HEAVY. MAINLY DRY WITH GOOD VSBY EXCEPT FAR OFFSHORE
WHERE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE COMMON.

WED...WINDS EASE AND BECOME SOUTHWEST AS CLIPPER LOW ENTERS THE
GREAT LAKES AND NY STATE. NOT AS COLD SO FREEZING SPRAY UNLIKELY.
VSBY MAY BRIEFLY LOWER IN A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW.

THU...ARCTIC FRONT WITH NW GALES BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE. MODERATE TO
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY POSSIBLE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
*** MINOR TO PERHAPS ISOLATED AREAS OF MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING
  POSSIBLE MON/MON NIGHT EASTERN MA COASTLINE ***

GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON SURFACE LOW TRACKING SOMEWHERE BETWEEN
NANTUCKET AND THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK WITH NAM THE FASTEST AND GFS
FARTHEST NORTHWEST. ECMWF SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE. MODEL CONSENSUS
BRINGS STRONGEST ONSHORE WINDS BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z...CLOSE TO LOW
TIDE. IF THIS TIMING HOLDS UP WORST CASE SCENARIO WOULD BE MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING.

THE FIRST TIDE CYCLE OF CONCERN IS THE MONDAY MID MORNING. HOWEVER
ALL WAVE GUID SUGGEST SEAS LESS THAN 10 FT AT HIGH TIDE GIVEN
ARRIVAL OF STRONGEST WINDS LATER DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS ALSO
YIELDS SURGE VALUES OF A FOOT OR LESS.

AS FOR THE MONDAY EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE...ASTRO TIDES ARE ABOUT A
1 FT LOWER. HOWEVER A STORM SURGE OF 1.5 TO 2.5 FT IS POSSIBLE.
ESTOFS AND ETSS ARE LOWER...SO I BLENDED THE TWO GUID SOURCES AND
ADDED 50 PERCENT TO COME UP WITH SURGE VALUES OF 1.5 TO 2.5 FT. IN
ADDITION...SEAS WILL LIKELY BUILD TO 15 TO 20 FT DURING THE EVENING
HIGH TIDE. ALL OF THESE FACTORS YIELD A MODERATE RISK OF MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING WITH A LOW RISK OF ISOLATED MODERATE FLOODING.

WHILE WINDS...SEAS AND STORM SURGE WILL BE LESS THAN THE PREVIOUS
COASTAL STORM THERE COULD STILL BE SOME MODEST IMPACT ESPECIALLY FOR
THOSE COMMUNITIES SUCH AS MARSHFIELD MA THAT WERE HIT HARD EARLIER
THIS WEEK WHERE COASTAL STRUCTURES SUCH AS SEAWALLS WERE DAMAGED.
GIVEN THE LOW TRACK IS CLOSE TO NANTUCKET THE GREATEST RISK OF
COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE FARTHER NORTHWARD FROM CAPE COD TO CAPE ANN
WITH PERHAPS THE HIGHEST RISK FROM HULL/COHASSET/SCITUATE/
MARSHFIELD/PLYMOUTH TO SANDWICH HARBOR.
/DUXBURY

GIVEN IT APPEARS MARGINAL FOR SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING AND STILL
48-60 HRS OUT IN TIME WILL HOLD OFF ON A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WITH EXTREMELY COLD AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW MONDAY
NIGHT...TEMPERATURES MAY FALL BACK CLOSE TO OR SURPASSING RECORD
LEVELS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AND THAT IS NOT TAKING INTO ACCOUNT
THE STRONG WINDS.

HERE ARE THE RECORD LOWS FOR TUESDAY 2/3...

BOSTON         -5 SET IN 1881
PROVIDENCE     -6 SET IN 1961
WORCESTER      -7 SET IN 1931, 1955 AND 1971
WINDSOR LOCKS  -3 SET IN 1955
BLUE HILL OBS  -7 SET IN 1955

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR MAZ020>024.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     MAZ002>019-026.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MAZ022>024.
RI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR RIZ005>008.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     RIZ001>004.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ231>235-237.
     HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR ANZ231>235-237-250-251-254>256.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ231-232-
     250-251-254-255.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ231-232-250-251-
     254>256.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ233>235-
     237.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ233>235-237.
     GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ230-236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ230-236.
     GALE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ250-251-254>256.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/FRANK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...FRANK/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...FRANK/DUNTEN
MARINE...NOCERA/FRANK/DUNTEN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NOCERA
CLIMATE...STAFF




000
FXUS61 KBOX 312349
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
648 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

BLUSTERY AND VERY COLD CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW. A
MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT THE REGION VERY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY EVENING WITH HEAVY SNOW FOR MANY LOCATIONS. BITTERLY
COLD WIND CHILLS FOLLOW LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
MODERATING TEMPS WEDNESDAY THEN VERY COLD CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. A COASTAL STORM WILL PASS WELL SOUTH
OF NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE WEEK BUT WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

645 PM UPDATE...

CLEAR SKIES...VERY COLD TEMPS AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS EARLY THIS
EVENING.  STILL NEAR WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CAPE/ISLANDS...SO WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 2Z.  SHOULD SEE WINDS
GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
IN FACT...WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR...WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW LOW TEMPS TO FALL BELOW ZERO ACROSS NORTHWEST MA WITH DEEP
SNOW PACK IN PLACE. ENOUGH WIND ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN SHOULD
KEEP OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS IN THE LOWER TEENS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...

DEEPENING LOW WILL MOVE WELL TOWARDS THE MARITIMES TONIGHT ALLOWING
FOR WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING INTO THE REGION. STILL A DESCENT PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVERNIGHT...ESP ACROSS THE EAST COAST SO ANTICIPATE WIND
GUSTS TO REMAIN UP. HOWEVER ACROSS THE CT VALLEY REGION WINDS LOOK
TO DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT SO EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP WELL INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND MAY BE CLOSE TO ZERO ESP AT ORE. HOWEVER WITH LIGHT
WINDS...WIND CHILL ADV ARE NOT NEEDED. BIGGEST ISSUE WITH THESE
COOLING TEMPS IS THE SKY COVER. AHEAD OF APPROACHING ARCTIC
FRONT...MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH.

TOMORROW...

850MB ARCTIC FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TOMORROW. HOWEVER
TEMPS WILL BE WARMER THAN TODAY AS 925 MB TEMPS JUMP FROM -13C TO
-8C. EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE MID 20S TO PERHAPS THE LOW 30S
ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN. MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY WHICH WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER.
OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE CALMER AND DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAJOR WINTER STORM VERY LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON EVENING
* HEAVY SNOWFALL EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE REGION
* BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY SNOWFALL AMTS NEAR SOUTH COAST - PTYPE ISSUES
* BITTERLY COLD AIR LATE MON NIGHT - WIND CHILLS 15 TO 25 BELOW ZERO

DETAILS...

A MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND VERY LATE SUN
NIGHT INTO MONDAY EVENING.  ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA WILL COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
THE RESULT WILL BE STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER RUNNING THE
ARCTIC DOME AT THE SURFACE.  THEN AS THE LOW DEEPENS...MUCH OF THE
REGION WILL SEE SNOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM.  BIGGEST
UNCERTAINTY IS HOW MUCH OF THE REGION TRANSITIONS TO A PERIOD OF
MIXED PTYPE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE EVENT...CUTTING DOWN ON
POSSIBLE SNOW ACCUMS.

1) TIMING AND UNCERTAINTY

SNOW WILL LIKELY ARRIVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST VERY LATE SUN
EVENING IN OUR WESTERN ZONES AND AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE REST OF
THE REGION.  EXTREMELY TIGHT MID LEVEL THERMAL PACKING WILL ALLOW
SNOW TO QUICKLY BECOME HEAVY.  SNOW WILL FALL HEAVY MONDAY MORNING
AT 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR AND SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT THE AM RUSH HOUR.

THINGS THEN BECOME MORE UNCERTAIN LATER IN THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.  THE GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN SURGING WARM MID LEVEL AIR
TO THE MA PIKE...RESULTING IN A CHANGE TO A PERIOD OF SLEET/FREEZING
RAIN AND EVEN PLAIN RAIN ALONG THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.
THE NAM/ECMWF/GGEM APPEAR THE COLDEST KEEPING MOST AREAS HEAVY
SNOW...EXCEPT FOR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.  THE UKMET APPEARS TO BE IN
BETWEEN THE OTHER SOLUTIONS.  GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WILL BLEND THE
MODELS.  RIGHT NOW WERE THINKING TRANSITION AREA MAY GET BRIEFLY
NEAR OR PERHAPS JUST NORTH OF THE THE TAUNTON TO PROVIDENCE
CORRIDOR...BEFORE COLLAPSING SOUTHEAST.

REGARDLESS HOW FAR NORTH THE TRANSITION LINE GETS...MOST AREAS WILL
CHANGE BACK TO SNOW MON EVENING.  GIVEN CLOSED MID LEVEL CENTERS AND
VERY COLD NORTHEAST FLOW...COULD BE SOME OCEAN ENHANCEMENT ACROSS
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND FOR A TIME BEFORE SNOW ENDS.  BULK OF SNOW
SHOULD WIND DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT ALTHOUGH THE GGEM IS A BIT SLOWER.

2) SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS AND HEADLINES

WE ARE PRETTY CONFIDENT IN A HEAVY SNOWFALL FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION...EXCEPT FOR AREAS NEAR THE SOUTH COAST WHERE PTYPE ISSUES
MAYBE MORE PROBLEMATIC.  8 TO 14 INCHES EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION.  HAVE UPGRADED ALL AREAS FROM PROVIDENCE TO TAUNTON
NORTHWARD TO WINTER STORM WARNING/S WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON CRITERIA
BEING MET.  AREAS SOUTHEAST OF THAT LINE...THERE IS SOME MORE
UNCERTAINTY ESP CAPE/ISLANDS.  IF A LOT OF MIXING OCCURS THESE AREAS
MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH WARNING CRITERIA...BUT ITS STILL CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON MODEL TRENDS.  THEREFORE...WE HAVE HELD THE
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTH COAST AND THE ISLANDS.

3) STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW

NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 50 MPH EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS STORM INTENSIFIES AND PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES.  THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN POOR VISIBILITY ALONG WITH
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.  ITS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW LOCATIONS ALONG
THE COAST COULD SEE NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FOR A VERY SHORT
TIME...BUT STORM DOESN/T SEEM TO WARRANT THOSE TYPE OF HEADLINES.

4) BITTERLY COLD AIR MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

TEMPS WILL LIKELY PLUNGE BELOW ZERO TO 5 ABOVE ZERO IN MANY
LOCATIONS BY EARLY TUE MORNING.  THIS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS
VALUES BETWEEN 15 AND 25 BELOW ZERO. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* COLD PATTERN CONTINUES THRU NEXT WEEKEND
* CLIPPER LOW APPEARING MORE LIKELY THAN COASTAL LOW WED/THU

GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG 12Z DETERMINISTIC...12Z GEFS AND 00Z ECENS
ENSEMBLES THAT THE POLAR JET WILL DOMINATE THE NORTHERN TIER STATES
INCLUDING NEW ENGLAND THIS PERIOD. THIS COMBINED WITH STREAMS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNPHASED WILL SUPPORT MAINLY DRY WEATHER THIS
PERIOD. ONE CAVEAT WILL BE CLIPPER LOW ENTERING THE NORTHEAST
WED/WED NIGHT. EARLIER MODEL RUNS SUGGESTED SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT SOUTHWEST OF NEW ENGLAND...WITH
POSSIBLE COASTAL-OCEAN STORM IMPACTING OUR REGION AROUND THU.
HOWEVER LATEST GUID INCLUDING ENSEMBLES SUGGEST MID LEVEL TROUGH
WILL LACK SUFFICIENT AMPLITUDE TO BACK THE FLOW FOR A SECONDARY LOW
TO IMPACT THE REGION. THEREFORE LEANING TOWARD A MORE OFFSHORE TRACK
AND JUST A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE WED/WED NIGHT. HOWEVER AT
THIS TIME RANGE CAN/T BE TOO DETERMINISTIC. THUS WON`T TOTALLY
DISCOUNT CLOSER SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT.

AS FOR TEMPS...BITTERLY COLD TUE BEHIND DEPARTING MON NGT COASTAL
LOW. THEN COLD EASES WED AHEAD OF APPROACHING CLIPPER LOW FOLLOWED
BUT YET ANOTHER ARCTIC BLAST LATE IN THE WEEK BEHIND THE CLIPPER. AS
FOR INTO NEXT WEEKEND ENSEMBLE TRENDS SUGGEST TEMPS COLDER THAN
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM.../THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...VFR WITH GRADUAL DIMINISHING WIND.

SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR...BUT LOW PROB FOR AREAS OF MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.  VFR SUNDAY EVENING DETERIORATES TO IFR-LIFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW BY DAYBREAK MON AND CONTINUES
AT TIMES INTO MONDAY EVENING.  PTYPE MAY TRANSITION TO A PERIOD OF
SLEET/FREEZING RAIN/RAIN SOUTH OF MA TURNPIKE.  NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS
OF 30 TO 45 KNOTS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST LATER MON INTO MON
EVENING.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR ON
TUESDAY. COULD SEE SOME MVFR CIGS IN SCT SNOW SHOWERS ON
WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW RISK OF MVFR
ALONG SOUTHEAST MASS DEPENDING ON TRACK OF CLIPPER LOW.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...STRONG LOW PRESSURE PULLS FARTHER AWAY WITH WINDS
DIMINISHING BELOW GALE AFTER 06Z...BUT GUSTS 25-30 KT WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY LIKELY
CONTINUING...ESPECIALLY E MA COASTAL WATERS.

SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGHOUT THE DAY BUT EXPECT SCA
WAVES TO REMAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY WILL
PERSIST.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

***STRONG GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS/HIGH SEAS AND THE RISK OF HEAVY
  FREEZING SPRAY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT***

WINDS/SEAS QUICKLY RAMP UP VERY LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON AS LOW
PRESSURE INTENSIFIES NEAR THE SOUTH COAST. GALE WATCHES ISSUED FOR
EXPECTED 40+ KNOT NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS BY MON MORNING.
SEAS BUILD TO 15+ FEET ACROSS OUR EASTERN WATERS BY LATE MON
AFTERNOON/EVENING. IN ADDITION...BITTERLY COLD AIR MOVING OVER THE
WATERS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. HAVE ALSO ISSUED A FREEZING SPRAY WATCH.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE TO HIGH FORECAST
CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY...NW GALES LIKELY ALONG WITH FREEZING SPRAY...POSSIBLY
MODERATE TO HEAVY. MAINLY DRY WITH GOOD VSBY EXCEPT FAR OFFSHORE
WHERE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE COMMON.

WED...WINDS EASE AND BECOME SOUTHWEST AS CLIPPER LOW ENTERS THE
GREAT LAKES AND NY STATE. NOT AS COLD SO FREEZING SPRAY UNLIKELY.
VSBY MAY BRIEFLY LOWER IN A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW.

THU...ARCTIC FRONT WITH NW GALES BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE. MODERATE TO
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY POSSIBLE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
*** MINOR TO PERHAPS ISOLATED AREAS OF MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING
  POSSIBLE MON/MON NIGHT EASTERN MA COASTLINE ***

GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON SURFACE LOW TRACKING SOMEWHERE BETWEEN
NANTUCKET AND THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK WITH NAM THE FASTEST AND GFS
FARTHEST NORTHWEST. ECMWF SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE. MODEL CONSENSUS
BRINGS STRONGEST ONSHORE WINDS BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z...CLOSE TO LOW
TIDE. IF THIS TIMING HOLDS UP WORST CASE SCENARIO WOULD BE MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING.

THE FIRST TIDE CYCLE OF CONCERN IS THE MONDAY MID MORNING. HOWEVER
ALL WAVE GUID SUGGEST SEAS LESS THAN 10 FT AT HIGH TIDE GIVEN
ARRIVAL OF STRONGEST WINDS LATER DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS ALSO
YIELDS SURGE VALUES OF A FOOT OR LESS.

AS FOR THE MONDAY EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE...ASTRO TIDES ARE ABOUT A
1 FT LOWER. HOWEVER A STORM SURGE OF 1.5 TO 2.5 FT IS POSSIBLE.
ESTOFS AND ETSS ARE LOWER...SO I BLENDED THE TWO GUID SOURCES AND
ADDED 50 PERCENT TO COME UP WITH SURGE VALUES OF 1.5 TO 2.5 FT. IN
ADDITION...SEAS WILL LIKELY BUILD TO 15 TO 20 FT DURING THE EVENING
HIGH TIDE. ALL OF THESE FACTORS YIELD A MODERATE RISK OF MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING WITH A LOW RISK OF ISOLATED MODERATE FLOODING.

WHILE WINDS...SEAS AND STORM SURGE WILL BE LESS THAN THE PREVIOUS
COASTAL STORM THERE COULD STILL BE SOME MODEST IMPACT ESPECIALLY FOR
THOSE COMMUNITIES SUCH AS MARSHFIELD MA THAT WERE HIT HARD EARLIER
THIS WEEK WHERE COASTAL STRUCTURES SUCH AS SEAWALLS WERE DAMAGED.
GIVEN THE LOW TRACK IS CLOSE TO NANTUCKET THE GREATEST RISK OF
COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE FARTHER NORTHWARD FROM CAPE COD TO CAPE ANN
WITH PERHAPS THE HIGHEST RISK FROM HULL/COHASSET/SCITUATE/
MARSHFIELD/PLYMOUTH TO SANDWICH HARBOR.
/DUXBURY

GIVEN IT APPEARS MARGINAL FOR SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING AND STILL
48-60 HRS OUT IN TIME WILL HOLD OFF ON A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WITH EXTREMELY COLD AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW MONDAY
NIGHT...TEMPERATURES MAY FALL BACK CLOSE TO OR SURPASSING RECORD
LEVELS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AND THAT IS NOT TAKING INTO ACCOUNT
THE STRONG WINDS.

HERE ARE THE RECORD LOWS FOR TUESDAY 2/3...

BOSTON         -5 SET IN 1881
PROVIDENCE     -6 SET IN 1961
WORCESTER      -7 SET IN 1931, 1955 AND 1971
WINDSOR LOCKS  -3 SET IN 1955
BLUE HILL OBS  -7 SET IN 1955

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR MAZ020>024.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     MAZ002>019-026.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MAZ022>024.
RI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR RIZ005>008.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     RIZ001>004.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ231>235-237.
     HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR ANZ231>235-237-250-251-254>256.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ231-232-
     250-251-254-255.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ231-232-250-251-
     254>256.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ233>235-
     237.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ233>235-237.
     GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ230-236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ230-236.
     GALE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ250-251-254>256.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/FRANK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...FRANK/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...FRANK/DUNTEN
MARINE...NOCERA/FRANK/DUNTEN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NOCERA
CLIMATE...STAFF




000
FXUS61 KOKX 312334
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
634 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TONIGHT...BEFORE A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND CROSSES ON SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY AND PASSES JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND MONDAY. THE
LOW TRACKS WELL TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN ITS PLACE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL LARGELY PREVAIL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
LATE WEDNESDAY. A DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE GULF COAST STATES LATE
IN THE WEEK LOOKS TO TAKE A TRACK WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ADJUSTED TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES THIS EVENING BASED ON LATEST OBS.

NEAR ZONAL FLOW TONIGHT WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
WEST THIS EVENING...AND THEN A POLAR FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
GREAT LAKES.

WINDS AND GUSTS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH MIDNIGHT...WITH INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.

TEMPS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS COLD WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
TEENS...EXCEPT 20S NYC/NJ METRO...WITH NEUTRAL TEMPS ADVECTION AND
LIMITED OPPORTUNITY FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. COULD SEE SOME SINGLE
DIGITS IN PINE BARRENS AND INTERIOR TRI-STATE WITH DECOUPLING BEFORE
CLOUDS MOVE IN.

PHASING NORTHERN STREAM AND SW US SHORTWAVE ENERGY BEGINS TO DIG
INTO THE CENTRAL US ON SUNDAY WITH GENERALLY WSW UPPER FLOW.

A WEAKENING POLAR FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION ON SUNDAY...BUT
OTHERWISE INCREASING AND LOWERING CLOUDS AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING
STORM SYSTEM. A FEW SNOW FLAKES MAY BE OBSERVED OVER NJ VERY LATE IN
THE DAY. TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAIN STORY WILL BE NEXT IN A SERIES OF WINTER STORMS AFFECTING THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH LOW PRESSURE TAKING SHAPE
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN TONIGHT...TRACKING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON
SUNDAY AND THEN JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. OVERALL
TREND HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH AND WETTER WITH THIS SYSTEM.

BASED ON COUPLED JET STRUCTURE...TIGHT LOW /MID-LEVEL THERMAL
STRUCTURE...AND GULF MOISTURE FEED OF 2-3 STD PWATS...CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH IN AT LEAST A 3/4 TO 1 1/2 INCH QPF EVENT FOR THE ENTIRE
AREA. THIS IS BORNE OUT IN SREF/GEFS/CMCE 1 INCH/24 HR QPF PROBS.

SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY LIES IN P-TYPE...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE
COAST...WITH A SPREAD OF ABOUT 50 MILES BETWEEN OPERATIONAL
SOLUTIONS AND ENSEMBLE MEANS IN HOW CLOSE TO THE COAST THE LOW
GETS AND THE POSITION OF THE TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION. SBU ENSEMBLE SENSITIVITY SHOWING THIS N/S TRACK UNCERTAINTY
IN THE 00Z GEFS/CMCE/ECMWF ENSEMBLES...WITH SENSITIVITY LYING IN
DEGREE OF PHASING/INTERACTION BETWEEN NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DROPPING DOWN THROUGH MONTANA AND THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW OVER
THE SW US...AND RESULTANT STRENGTH OF TROUGH APPROACHING THE EAST
COAST SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AND UPSTREAM RIDGING. A STRONGER
TROUGH...MEANING MORE UPSTREAM RIDGING...AND A FURTHER NORTH
TRACK. THIS INTERACTION IS NOT COMPLETE FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS...SO
COULD TAKE UNTIL THEN FOR CONFIDENCE IN P-TYPE FORECAST INCREASES.

WITH CONFLUENT FLOW ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND/SE CANADA...ARCTIC
HIGH SHOULD BE LOCKED INTO THAT AREA. PREFER TIGHTER THERMAL
STRUCTURE ALOFT OF NAM/ECMWF/CAN VERSUS MORE DIFFUSE THERMAL
STRUCTURE OF GFS IN THIS SITUATION...BUT QUESTION IS LOCATION OF
THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE. MODEL SOLUTIONS POINTING TO DIFFERING
DEGREES OF WARMING IN THE 800-950 LAYER MON MORNING INTO EARLY
AFT...BUT TREND IS TOWARDS MORE WARMING.

WITH THIS SAID...NORTHWEST TIER OF THE TRI-STATE LOOKS TO BE
MAINLY SNOW. BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE IS FOR COAST...ESPECIALLY
NYC/NJ/LI...IN AMOUNT OF SLEET/FZRA/RA VERSUS SNOW. 12Z GFS/GEFS
ARE FURTHER NORTH WITH LOW TRACK...JUST SOUTH OF LI MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH WOULD IMPLY MORE IN THE WAY OF WARMING
ALOFT...AND MORE IN WAY MIXING WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN AND
EVEN RAIN FOR LI/NYC. 12Z GEM HAS TRENDED IN THAT DIRECTION AS
WELL. 12Z NAM...WOULD POINT TO MAINLY SNOW FOR CT AND LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY...WITH A MIX OF SIGNIFICANT SNOW/SLEET ACCUM FOR
NYC/LI/METRO NJ. 00Z ECMWF...IS SIMILARLY COLDER AND A BIT FARTHER
SOUTH AS WITH THE NAM. HAVE TAKEN A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD SOLUTION
BASED ON THE UNCERTAINTY...WITH A SLIGHTLY WETTER AND WARMER
FORECAST.

EVEN WITH CONTINUED NORTHWARD TREND...HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN
SIGNIFICANT SNOW/SLEET/ICE ACROSS INTERIOR NE NJ...AND MOST OF THE
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND CT. HAVE UPGRADED TO WARNING THERE FOR 5
TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW/SLEET AND UP TO 1/4 INCH OF ICE. INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND SW CT...MORE IN THE 8 TO 14
INCH RANGE WITH LESS ICE/SLEET.

EVEN FOR NYC/NJ METRO AND LI...COULD SEE A QUICK 3 TO 5 INCH
SNOWFALL ON THE FRONT END WITH SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE AND STRONG
LIFT LATE SUN NIGHT/EARLY MON MORNING BEFORE ANY MIXING. AFTER
CHANGEOVER...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF FZRA/SLEET (1/4 INCH OF ICE)
POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN HALF OF LI/NYC AND NE NJ...WITH COLD AIR
DRAINAGE DOWN THE RIVER VALLEYS. HAVE MAINTAINED A WATCH HERE WITH
UNCERTAINTY IF WE CHANGEOVER TO MORE RAIN...PARTICULARLY FOR SOUTH
COASTAL AREAS. THE ONE ASPECT TO KEEP IN MIND IS IF COASTAL AREAS
DO GO OVER TO RAIN...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR URBAN FLOODING ISSUES.
SEE HYDROLOGY SECTION FOR MORE INFO.

ANY RAIN/MIXED PRECIP SHOULD GRADUALLY CHANGE BACK TO SNOW FROM NW
TO SE MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVE. EVEN SOME SIGNAL OF DEFORMATION BANDING
ON THE BACKSIDE...WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW BACK DOWN TO THE COAST.
WITH COLD AIR CRASHING BACK DOWN TO THE COAST...POTENTIAL FOR
FLASH FREEZE CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY EVENING COMMUTE FOR CITY/COAST
IN WAKE OF A WASHING RAIN. SO TO SAY THE LEAST...A COMPLICATED
FORECAST FOR THE NYC/NJ METRO AND LONG ISLAND...WHICH COULD STILL
SEE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EVEN IF IT IS NOT ALL FROZEN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A BROAD UPPER TROF WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK
FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES OF WESTERN CANADA SE INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION. THIS WILL KEEP A STEADY STREAM OF POLAR AIR
MASSES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WITH GENERALLY UNSEASONABLY COLD
CONDITIONS. THIS SEASON HAS BEEN TYPIFIED BY THIS FLOW REGIME WITH
NO BLOCK OVER GREENLAND. OCCASIONALLY...A STRONG SHORT WAVE BRIEFLY
AMPLIFIES THE FLOW...BUT REMAINS PROGRESSIVE.

THE ONLY CHANCE FOR PCPN LOOKS TO BE WITH A POLAR COLD FRONT WED
INTO WED NIGHT...WHICH WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SCT SNOW SNOW SHOWERS.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED WELL SOUTH AND EAST WITH A LATE WEEK COASTAL LOW
MOVING OUT OF THE GULF COAST STATES. THUS...HAVE TRENDED DOWN TO THE
POINT WHERE THERE IS NO MENTION OF PCPN LATE IN THE WEEK.
INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH THOUGH...MODELS HAVE BEEN WAVERING BACK AND
FORTH WITH THESE SYSTEMS...SO PERHAPS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE
WOODS.

THE ONLY DAY OF THE WEEK THAT LOOKS TO BE NEAR NORMAL WITH RESPECT
TO TEMPS IS WED AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

   **HIGH IMPACT EVENT SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY**

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING WEAKENS TONIGHT AS A
WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE APPROACH. THE WARM FRONT WILL
BE IN THE VICINITY BY 00Z MONDAY. LIGHT SNOW WILL BE DEVELOPING LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON MAINLY WEST OF THE NYC TERMINALS...AND BECOME
LIKELY AROUND 00Z MONDAY WITH CONDITIONS LOWERING TO IFR. THERE IS
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE TIMING OF THE BEGINNING OF THE
SNOW.

GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND SUBSIDE BY 03Z WITH THE WIND BECOMING MORE
WESTERLY...GENERALLY UNDER 10 KT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...HIGH IMPACT PERIOD. IFR HIGHLY LIKELY AS SNOW
DEVELOPS SUNDAY EVENING...THEN CONTINUES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. A
WINTRY MIX OF SLEET...SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN BECOMES LIKELY EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AT THE NYC METRO TERMINALS AND ACROSS LONG ISLAND.
THE WINTRY MIX PUSHES FARTHER NORTH DURING MONDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUES INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE GOING BACK TO ALL SNOW BEFORE
ENDING MONDAY EVENING.
.MONDAY NIGHT...BECOMING VFR AS SNOW COMES TO AN END. N-NW WIND 15
TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT.
.TUESDAY...VFR.
.WEDNESDAY...VFR. A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOCALLY MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS.
.THURSDAY...VFR. NW GUSTS 20 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT WITH A GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING NW FLOW. 5 TO 9 FT SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO
LESS THAN 5 FT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

TRANQUIL CONDS ON THE WATERS SUN AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVERHEAD AND
DEPARTS. CONDS RAMP UP TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE. A FEW
GALE GUSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A MARGINAL GALE EVENT MON NIGHT ON THE
BACKSIDE OF DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE LIFTING UP INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. WINDS AND SEAS ARE THEN FORECAST TO SUBSIDE BELOW SCA
LEVELS ON TUE WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE WATERS.
MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN WATERS WED IN A
PRE-FRONTAL SW FLOW...AND THEN IN THE NW POST-FRONTAL FLOW ON THU.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GENERALLY 1 TO 1 1/2 INCHES OF LIQUID FORECAST WITH THE SYSTEM
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. MOST OF THIS WILL BE SNOW AND SLEET
ACROSS NE NJ...LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND CT.

ACROSS LI/NYC THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF HEAVY
RAIN...WITH SOME MODELS SIGNALING UP TO 2 INCHES OF QPF.
ALTHOUGH THIS POTENTIAL IS LOW...IF MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE
NORTH...THIS POTENTIAL WOULD INCREASE...RESULTING IN URBAN
FLOODING ISSUES.

NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PCPN IS FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING THRESHOLDS
BEING REACHED WITH THE MONDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLE ALONG THE
WESTERN SOUTH SHORE BAYS AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF LI SOUND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR CTZ011-012.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     CTZ005>010.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ071>075-078>081-176>179.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     NYZ067>070.
NJ...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NJZ004-006-104>108.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     NJZ002-103.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-
     340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NV/DW
NEAR TERM...NV/DW
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...NV/DW
HYDROLOGY...NV/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NV









000
FXUS61 KOKX 312334
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
634 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TONIGHT...BEFORE A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND CROSSES ON SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY AND PASSES JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND MONDAY. THE
LOW TRACKS WELL TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN ITS PLACE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL LARGELY PREVAIL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
LATE WEDNESDAY. A DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE GULF COAST STATES LATE
IN THE WEEK LOOKS TO TAKE A TRACK WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ADJUSTED TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES THIS EVENING BASED ON LATEST OBS.

NEAR ZONAL FLOW TONIGHT WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
WEST THIS EVENING...AND THEN A POLAR FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
GREAT LAKES.

WINDS AND GUSTS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH MIDNIGHT...WITH INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.

TEMPS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS COLD WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
TEENS...EXCEPT 20S NYC/NJ METRO...WITH NEUTRAL TEMPS ADVECTION AND
LIMITED OPPORTUNITY FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. COULD SEE SOME SINGLE
DIGITS IN PINE BARRENS AND INTERIOR TRI-STATE WITH DECOUPLING BEFORE
CLOUDS MOVE IN.

PHASING NORTHERN STREAM AND SW US SHORTWAVE ENERGY BEGINS TO DIG
INTO THE CENTRAL US ON SUNDAY WITH GENERALLY WSW UPPER FLOW.

A WEAKENING POLAR FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION ON SUNDAY...BUT
OTHERWISE INCREASING AND LOWERING CLOUDS AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING
STORM SYSTEM. A FEW SNOW FLAKES MAY BE OBSERVED OVER NJ VERY LATE IN
THE DAY. TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAIN STORY WILL BE NEXT IN A SERIES OF WINTER STORMS AFFECTING THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH LOW PRESSURE TAKING SHAPE
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN TONIGHT...TRACKING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON
SUNDAY AND THEN JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. OVERALL
TREND HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH AND WETTER WITH THIS SYSTEM.

BASED ON COUPLED JET STRUCTURE...TIGHT LOW /MID-LEVEL THERMAL
STRUCTURE...AND GULF MOISTURE FEED OF 2-3 STD PWATS...CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH IN AT LEAST A 3/4 TO 1 1/2 INCH QPF EVENT FOR THE ENTIRE
AREA. THIS IS BORNE OUT IN SREF/GEFS/CMCE 1 INCH/24 HR QPF PROBS.

SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY LIES IN P-TYPE...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE
COAST...WITH A SPREAD OF ABOUT 50 MILES BETWEEN OPERATIONAL
SOLUTIONS AND ENSEMBLE MEANS IN HOW CLOSE TO THE COAST THE LOW
GETS AND THE POSITION OF THE TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION. SBU ENSEMBLE SENSITIVITY SHOWING THIS N/S TRACK UNCERTAINTY
IN THE 00Z GEFS/CMCE/ECMWF ENSEMBLES...WITH SENSITIVITY LYING IN
DEGREE OF PHASING/INTERACTION BETWEEN NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DROPPING DOWN THROUGH MONTANA AND THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW OVER
THE SW US...AND RESULTANT STRENGTH OF TROUGH APPROACHING THE EAST
COAST SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AND UPSTREAM RIDGING. A STRONGER
TROUGH...MEANING MORE UPSTREAM RIDGING...AND A FURTHER NORTH
TRACK. THIS INTERACTION IS NOT COMPLETE FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS...SO
COULD TAKE UNTIL THEN FOR CONFIDENCE IN P-TYPE FORECAST INCREASES.

WITH CONFLUENT FLOW ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND/SE CANADA...ARCTIC
HIGH SHOULD BE LOCKED INTO THAT AREA. PREFER TIGHTER THERMAL
STRUCTURE ALOFT OF NAM/ECMWF/CAN VERSUS MORE DIFFUSE THERMAL
STRUCTURE OF GFS IN THIS SITUATION...BUT QUESTION IS LOCATION OF
THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE. MODEL SOLUTIONS POINTING TO DIFFERING
DEGREES OF WARMING IN THE 800-950 LAYER MON MORNING INTO EARLY
AFT...BUT TREND IS TOWARDS MORE WARMING.

WITH THIS SAID...NORTHWEST TIER OF THE TRI-STATE LOOKS TO BE
MAINLY SNOW. BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE IS FOR COAST...ESPECIALLY
NYC/NJ/LI...IN AMOUNT OF SLEET/FZRA/RA VERSUS SNOW. 12Z GFS/GEFS
ARE FURTHER NORTH WITH LOW TRACK...JUST SOUTH OF LI MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH WOULD IMPLY MORE IN THE WAY OF WARMING
ALOFT...AND MORE IN WAY MIXING WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN AND
EVEN RAIN FOR LI/NYC. 12Z GEM HAS TRENDED IN THAT DIRECTION AS
WELL. 12Z NAM...WOULD POINT TO MAINLY SNOW FOR CT AND LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY...WITH A MIX OF SIGNIFICANT SNOW/SLEET ACCUM FOR
NYC/LI/METRO NJ. 00Z ECMWF...IS SIMILARLY COLDER AND A BIT FARTHER
SOUTH AS WITH THE NAM. HAVE TAKEN A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD SOLUTION
BASED ON THE UNCERTAINTY...WITH A SLIGHTLY WETTER AND WARMER
FORECAST.

EVEN WITH CONTINUED NORTHWARD TREND...HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN
SIGNIFICANT SNOW/SLEET/ICE ACROSS INTERIOR NE NJ...AND MOST OF THE
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND CT. HAVE UPGRADED TO WARNING THERE FOR 5
TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW/SLEET AND UP TO 1/4 INCH OF ICE. INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND SW CT...MORE IN THE 8 TO 14
INCH RANGE WITH LESS ICE/SLEET.

EVEN FOR NYC/NJ METRO AND LI...COULD SEE A QUICK 3 TO 5 INCH
SNOWFALL ON THE FRONT END WITH SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE AND STRONG
LIFT LATE SUN NIGHT/EARLY MON MORNING BEFORE ANY MIXING. AFTER
CHANGEOVER...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF FZRA/SLEET (1/4 INCH OF ICE)
POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN HALF OF LI/NYC AND NE NJ...WITH COLD AIR
DRAINAGE DOWN THE RIVER VALLEYS. HAVE MAINTAINED A WATCH HERE WITH
UNCERTAINTY IF WE CHANGEOVER TO MORE RAIN...PARTICULARLY FOR SOUTH
COASTAL AREAS. THE ONE ASPECT TO KEEP IN MIND IS IF COASTAL AREAS
DO GO OVER TO RAIN...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR URBAN FLOODING ISSUES.
SEE HYDROLOGY SECTION FOR MORE INFO.

ANY RAIN/MIXED PRECIP SHOULD GRADUALLY CHANGE BACK TO SNOW FROM NW
TO SE MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVE. EVEN SOME SIGNAL OF DEFORMATION BANDING
ON THE BACKSIDE...WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW BACK DOWN TO THE COAST.
WITH COLD AIR CRASHING BACK DOWN TO THE COAST...POTENTIAL FOR
FLASH FREEZE CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY EVENING COMMUTE FOR CITY/COAST
IN WAKE OF A WASHING RAIN. SO TO SAY THE LEAST...A COMPLICATED
FORECAST FOR THE NYC/NJ METRO AND LONG ISLAND...WHICH COULD STILL
SEE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EVEN IF IT IS NOT ALL FROZEN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A BROAD UPPER TROF WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK
FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES OF WESTERN CANADA SE INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION. THIS WILL KEEP A STEADY STREAM OF POLAR AIR
MASSES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WITH GENERALLY UNSEASONABLY COLD
CONDITIONS. THIS SEASON HAS BEEN TYPIFIED BY THIS FLOW REGIME WITH
NO BLOCK OVER GREENLAND. OCCASIONALLY...A STRONG SHORT WAVE BRIEFLY
AMPLIFIES THE FLOW...BUT REMAINS PROGRESSIVE.

THE ONLY CHANCE FOR PCPN LOOKS TO BE WITH A POLAR COLD FRONT WED
INTO WED NIGHT...WHICH WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SCT SNOW SNOW SHOWERS.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED WELL SOUTH AND EAST WITH A LATE WEEK COASTAL LOW
MOVING OUT OF THE GULF COAST STATES. THUS...HAVE TRENDED DOWN TO THE
POINT WHERE THERE IS NO MENTION OF PCPN LATE IN THE WEEK.
INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH THOUGH...MODELS HAVE BEEN WAVERING BACK AND
FORTH WITH THESE SYSTEMS...SO PERHAPS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE
WOODS.

THE ONLY DAY OF THE WEEK THAT LOOKS TO BE NEAR NORMAL WITH RESPECT
TO TEMPS IS WED AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

   **HIGH IMPACT EVENT SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY**

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING WEAKENS TONIGHT AS A
WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE APPROACH. THE WARM FRONT WILL
BE IN THE VICINITY BY 00Z MONDAY. LIGHT SNOW WILL BE DEVELOPING LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON MAINLY WEST OF THE NYC TERMINALS...AND BECOME
LIKELY AROUND 00Z MONDAY WITH CONDITIONS LOWERING TO IFR. THERE IS
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE TIMING OF THE BEGINNING OF THE
SNOW.

GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND SUBSIDE BY 03Z WITH THE WIND BECOMING MORE
WESTERLY...GENERALLY UNDER 10 KT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...HIGH IMPACT PERIOD. IFR HIGHLY LIKELY AS SNOW
DEVELOPS SUNDAY EVENING...THEN CONTINUES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. A
WINTRY MIX OF SLEET...SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN BECOMES LIKELY EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AT THE NYC METRO TERMINALS AND ACROSS LONG ISLAND.
THE WINTRY MIX PUSHES FARTHER NORTH DURING MONDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUES INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE GOING BACK TO ALL SNOW BEFORE
ENDING MONDAY EVENING.
.MONDAY NIGHT...BECOMING VFR AS SNOW COMES TO AN END. N-NW WIND 15
TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT.
.TUESDAY...VFR.
.WEDNESDAY...VFR. A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOCALLY MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS.
.THURSDAY...VFR. NW GUSTS 20 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT WITH A GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING NW FLOW. 5 TO 9 FT SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO
LESS THAN 5 FT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

TRANQUIL CONDS ON THE WATERS SUN AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVERHEAD AND
DEPARTS. CONDS RAMP UP TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE. A FEW
GALE GUSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A MARGINAL GALE EVENT MON NIGHT ON THE
BACKSIDE OF DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE LIFTING UP INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. WINDS AND SEAS ARE THEN FORECAST TO SUBSIDE BELOW SCA
LEVELS ON TUE WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE WATERS.
MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN WATERS WED IN A
PRE-FRONTAL SW FLOW...AND THEN IN THE NW POST-FRONTAL FLOW ON THU.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GENERALLY 1 TO 1 1/2 INCHES OF LIQUID FORECAST WITH THE SYSTEM
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. MOST OF THIS WILL BE SNOW AND SLEET
ACROSS NE NJ...LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND CT.

ACROSS LI/NYC THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF HEAVY
RAIN...WITH SOME MODELS SIGNALING UP TO 2 INCHES OF QPF.
ALTHOUGH THIS POTENTIAL IS LOW...IF MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE
NORTH...THIS POTENTIAL WOULD INCREASE...RESULTING IN URBAN
FLOODING ISSUES.

NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PCPN IS FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING THRESHOLDS
BEING REACHED WITH THE MONDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLE ALONG THE
WESTERN SOUTH SHORE BAYS AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF LI SOUND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR CTZ011-012.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     CTZ005>010.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ071>075-078>081-176>179.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     NYZ067>070.
NJ...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NJZ004-006-104>108.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     NJZ002-103.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-
     340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NV/DW
NEAR TERM...NV/DW
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...NV/DW
HYDROLOGY...NV/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NV









000
FXUS61 KOKX 312334
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
634 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TONIGHT...BEFORE A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND CROSSES ON SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY AND PASSES JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND MONDAY. THE
LOW TRACKS WELL TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN ITS PLACE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL LARGELY PREVAIL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
LATE WEDNESDAY. A DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE GULF COAST STATES LATE
IN THE WEEK LOOKS TO TAKE A TRACK WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ADJUSTED TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES THIS EVENING BASED ON LATEST OBS.

NEAR ZONAL FLOW TONIGHT WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
WEST THIS EVENING...AND THEN A POLAR FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
GREAT LAKES.

WINDS AND GUSTS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH MIDNIGHT...WITH INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.

TEMPS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS COLD WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
TEENS...EXCEPT 20S NYC/NJ METRO...WITH NEUTRAL TEMPS ADVECTION AND
LIMITED OPPORTUNITY FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. COULD SEE SOME SINGLE
DIGITS IN PINE BARRENS AND INTERIOR TRI-STATE WITH DECOUPLING BEFORE
CLOUDS MOVE IN.

PHASING NORTHERN STREAM AND SW US SHORTWAVE ENERGY BEGINS TO DIG
INTO THE CENTRAL US ON SUNDAY WITH GENERALLY WSW UPPER FLOW.

A WEAKENING POLAR FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION ON SUNDAY...BUT
OTHERWISE INCREASING AND LOWERING CLOUDS AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING
STORM SYSTEM. A FEW SNOW FLAKES MAY BE OBSERVED OVER NJ VERY LATE IN
THE DAY. TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAIN STORY WILL BE NEXT IN A SERIES OF WINTER STORMS AFFECTING THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH LOW PRESSURE TAKING SHAPE
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN TONIGHT...TRACKING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON
SUNDAY AND THEN JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. OVERALL
TREND HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH AND WETTER WITH THIS SYSTEM.

BASED ON COUPLED JET STRUCTURE...TIGHT LOW /MID-LEVEL THERMAL
STRUCTURE...AND GULF MOISTURE FEED OF 2-3 STD PWATS...CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH IN AT LEAST A 3/4 TO 1 1/2 INCH QPF EVENT FOR THE ENTIRE
AREA. THIS IS BORNE OUT IN SREF/GEFS/CMCE 1 INCH/24 HR QPF PROBS.

SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY LIES IN P-TYPE...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE
COAST...WITH A SPREAD OF ABOUT 50 MILES BETWEEN OPERATIONAL
SOLUTIONS AND ENSEMBLE MEANS IN HOW CLOSE TO THE COAST THE LOW
GETS AND THE POSITION OF THE TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION. SBU ENSEMBLE SENSITIVITY SHOWING THIS N/S TRACK UNCERTAINTY
IN THE 00Z GEFS/CMCE/ECMWF ENSEMBLES...WITH SENSITIVITY LYING IN
DEGREE OF PHASING/INTERACTION BETWEEN NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DROPPING DOWN THROUGH MONTANA AND THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW OVER
THE SW US...AND RESULTANT STRENGTH OF TROUGH APPROACHING THE EAST
COAST SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AND UPSTREAM RIDGING. A STRONGER
TROUGH...MEANING MORE UPSTREAM RIDGING...AND A FURTHER NORTH
TRACK. THIS INTERACTION IS NOT COMPLETE FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS...SO
COULD TAKE UNTIL THEN FOR CONFIDENCE IN P-TYPE FORECAST INCREASES.

WITH CONFLUENT FLOW ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND/SE CANADA...ARCTIC
HIGH SHOULD BE LOCKED INTO THAT AREA. PREFER TIGHTER THERMAL
STRUCTURE ALOFT OF NAM/ECMWF/CAN VERSUS MORE DIFFUSE THERMAL
STRUCTURE OF GFS IN THIS SITUATION...BUT QUESTION IS LOCATION OF
THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE. MODEL SOLUTIONS POINTING TO DIFFERING
DEGREES OF WARMING IN THE 800-950 LAYER MON MORNING INTO EARLY
AFT...BUT TREND IS TOWARDS MORE WARMING.

WITH THIS SAID...NORTHWEST TIER OF THE TRI-STATE LOOKS TO BE
MAINLY SNOW. BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE IS FOR COAST...ESPECIALLY
NYC/NJ/LI...IN AMOUNT OF SLEET/FZRA/RA VERSUS SNOW. 12Z GFS/GEFS
ARE FURTHER NORTH WITH LOW TRACK...JUST SOUTH OF LI MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH WOULD IMPLY MORE IN THE WAY OF WARMING
ALOFT...AND MORE IN WAY MIXING WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN AND
EVEN RAIN FOR LI/NYC. 12Z GEM HAS TRENDED IN THAT DIRECTION AS
WELL. 12Z NAM...WOULD POINT TO MAINLY SNOW FOR CT AND LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY...WITH A MIX OF SIGNIFICANT SNOW/SLEET ACCUM FOR
NYC/LI/METRO NJ. 00Z ECMWF...IS SIMILARLY COLDER AND A BIT FARTHER
SOUTH AS WITH THE NAM. HAVE TAKEN A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD SOLUTION
BASED ON THE UNCERTAINTY...WITH A SLIGHTLY WETTER AND WARMER
FORECAST.

EVEN WITH CONTINUED NORTHWARD TREND...HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN
SIGNIFICANT SNOW/SLEET/ICE ACROSS INTERIOR NE NJ...AND MOST OF THE
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND CT. HAVE UPGRADED TO WARNING THERE FOR 5
TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW/SLEET AND UP TO 1/4 INCH OF ICE. INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND SW CT...MORE IN THE 8 TO 14
INCH RANGE WITH LESS ICE/SLEET.

EVEN FOR NYC/NJ METRO AND LI...COULD SEE A QUICK 3 TO 5 INCH
SNOWFALL ON THE FRONT END WITH SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE AND STRONG
LIFT LATE SUN NIGHT/EARLY MON MORNING BEFORE ANY MIXING. AFTER
CHANGEOVER...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF FZRA/SLEET (1/4 INCH OF ICE)
POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN HALF OF LI/NYC AND NE NJ...WITH COLD AIR
DRAINAGE DOWN THE RIVER VALLEYS. HAVE MAINTAINED A WATCH HERE WITH
UNCERTAINTY IF WE CHANGEOVER TO MORE RAIN...PARTICULARLY FOR SOUTH
COASTAL AREAS. THE ONE ASPECT TO KEEP IN MIND IS IF COASTAL AREAS
DO GO OVER TO RAIN...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR URBAN FLOODING ISSUES.
SEE HYDROLOGY SECTION FOR MORE INFO.

ANY RAIN/MIXED PRECIP SHOULD GRADUALLY CHANGE BACK TO SNOW FROM NW
TO SE MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVE. EVEN SOME SIGNAL OF DEFORMATION BANDING
ON THE BACKSIDE...WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW BACK DOWN TO THE COAST.
WITH COLD AIR CRASHING BACK DOWN TO THE COAST...POTENTIAL FOR
FLASH FREEZE CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY EVENING COMMUTE FOR CITY/COAST
IN WAKE OF A WASHING RAIN. SO TO SAY THE LEAST...A COMPLICATED
FORECAST FOR THE NYC/NJ METRO AND LONG ISLAND...WHICH COULD STILL
SEE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EVEN IF IT IS NOT ALL FROZEN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A BROAD UPPER TROF WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK
FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES OF WESTERN CANADA SE INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION. THIS WILL KEEP A STEADY STREAM OF POLAR AIR
MASSES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WITH GENERALLY UNSEASONABLY COLD
CONDITIONS. THIS SEASON HAS BEEN TYPIFIED BY THIS FLOW REGIME WITH
NO BLOCK OVER GREENLAND. OCCASIONALLY...A STRONG SHORT WAVE BRIEFLY
AMPLIFIES THE FLOW...BUT REMAINS PROGRESSIVE.

THE ONLY CHANCE FOR PCPN LOOKS TO BE WITH A POLAR COLD FRONT WED
INTO WED NIGHT...WHICH WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SCT SNOW SNOW SHOWERS.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED WELL SOUTH AND EAST WITH A LATE WEEK COASTAL LOW
MOVING OUT OF THE GULF COAST STATES. THUS...HAVE TRENDED DOWN TO THE
POINT WHERE THERE IS NO MENTION OF PCPN LATE IN THE WEEK.
INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH THOUGH...MODELS HAVE BEEN WAVERING BACK AND
FORTH WITH THESE SYSTEMS...SO PERHAPS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE
WOODS.

THE ONLY DAY OF THE WEEK THAT LOOKS TO BE NEAR NORMAL WITH RESPECT
TO TEMPS IS WED AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

   **HIGH IMPACT EVENT SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY**

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING WEAKENS TONIGHT AS A
WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE APPROACH. THE WARM FRONT WILL
BE IN THE VICINITY BY 00Z MONDAY. LIGHT SNOW WILL BE DEVELOPING LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON MAINLY WEST OF THE NYC TERMINALS...AND BECOME
LIKELY AROUND 00Z MONDAY WITH CONDITIONS LOWERING TO IFR. THERE IS
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE TIMING OF THE BEGINNING OF THE
SNOW.

GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND SUBSIDE BY 03Z WITH THE WIND BECOMING MORE
WESTERLY...GENERALLY UNDER 10 KT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...HIGH IMPACT PERIOD. IFR HIGHLY LIKELY AS SNOW
DEVELOPS SUNDAY EVENING...THEN CONTINUES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. A
WINTRY MIX OF SLEET...SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN BECOMES LIKELY EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AT THE NYC METRO TERMINALS AND ACROSS LONG ISLAND.
THE WINTRY MIX PUSHES FARTHER NORTH DURING MONDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUES INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE GOING BACK TO ALL SNOW BEFORE
ENDING MONDAY EVENING.
.MONDAY NIGHT...BECOMING VFR AS SNOW COMES TO AN END. N-NW WIND 15
TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT.
.TUESDAY...VFR.
.WEDNESDAY...VFR. A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOCALLY MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS.
.THURSDAY...VFR. NW GUSTS 20 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT WITH A GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING NW FLOW. 5 TO 9 FT SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO
LESS THAN 5 FT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

TRANQUIL CONDS ON THE WATERS SUN AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVERHEAD AND
DEPARTS. CONDS RAMP UP TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE. A FEW
GALE GUSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A MARGINAL GALE EVENT MON NIGHT ON THE
BACKSIDE OF DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE LIFTING UP INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. WINDS AND SEAS ARE THEN FORECAST TO SUBSIDE BELOW SCA
LEVELS ON TUE WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE WATERS.
MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN WATERS WED IN A
PRE-FRONTAL SW FLOW...AND THEN IN THE NW POST-FRONTAL FLOW ON THU.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GENERALLY 1 TO 1 1/2 INCHES OF LIQUID FORECAST WITH THE SYSTEM
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. MOST OF THIS WILL BE SNOW AND SLEET
ACROSS NE NJ...LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND CT.

ACROSS LI/NYC THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF HEAVY
RAIN...WITH SOME MODELS SIGNALING UP TO 2 INCHES OF QPF.
ALTHOUGH THIS POTENTIAL IS LOW...IF MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE
NORTH...THIS POTENTIAL WOULD INCREASE...RESULTING IN URBAN
FLOODING ISSUES.

NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PCPN IS FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING THRESHOLDS
BEING REACHED WITH THE MONDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLE ALONG THE
WESTERN SOUTH SHORE BAYS AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF LI SOUND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR CTZ011-012.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     CTZ005>010.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ071>075-078>081-176>179.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     NYZ067>070.
NJ...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NJZ004-006-104>108.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     NJZ002-103.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-
     340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NV/DW
NEAR TERM...NV/DW
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...NV/DW
HYDROLOGY...NV/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NV









000
FXUS61 KOKX 312334
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
634 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TONIGHT...BEFORE A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND CROSSES ON SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY AND PASSES JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND MONDAY. THE
LOW TRACKS WELL TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN ITS PLACE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL LARGELY PREVAIL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
LATE WEDNESDAY. A DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE GULF COAST STATES LATE
IN THE WEEK LOOKS TO TAKE A TRACK WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ADJUSTED TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES THIS EVENING BASED ON LATEST OBS.

NEAR ZONAL FLOW TONIGHT WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
WEST THIS EVENING...AND THEN A POLAR FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
GREAT LAKES.

WINDS AND GUSTS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH MIDNIGHT...WITH INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.

TEMPS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS COLD WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
TEENS...EXCEPT 20S NYC/NJ METRO...WITH NEUTRAL TEMPS ADVECTION AND
LIMITED OPPORTUNITY FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. COULD SEE SOME SINGLE
DIGITS IN PINE BARRENS AND INTERIOR TRI-STATE WITH DECOUPLING BEFORE
CLOUDS MOVE IN.

PHASING NORTHERN STREAM AND SW US SHORTWAVE ENERGY BEGINS TO DIG
INTO THE CENTRAL US ON SUNDAY WITH GENERALLY WSW UPPER FLOW.

A WEAKENING POLAR FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION ON SUNDAY...BUT
OTHERWISE INCREASING AND LOWERING CLOUDS AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING
STORM SYSTEM. A FEW SNOW FLAKES MAY BE OBSERVED OVER NJ VERY LATE IN
THE DAY. TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAIN STORY WILL BE NEXT IN A SERIES OF WINTER STORMS AFFECTING THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH LOW PRESSURE TAKING SHAPE
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN TONIGHT...TRACKING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON
SUNDAY AND THEN JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. OVERALL
TREND HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH AND WETTER WITH THIS SYSTEM.

BASED ON COUPLED JET STRUCTURE...TIGHT LOW /MID-LEVEL THERMAL
STRUCTURE...AND GULF MOISTURE FEED OF 2-3 STD PWATS...CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH IN AT LEAST A 3/4 TO 1 1/2 INCH QPF EVENT FOR THE ENTIRE
AREA. THIS IS BORNE OUT IN SREF/GEFS/CMCE 1 INCH/24 HR QPF PROBS.

SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY LIES IN P-TYPE...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE
COAST...WITH A SPREAD OF ABOUT 50 MILES BETWEEN OPERATIONAL
SOLUTIONS AND ENSEMBLE MEANS IN HOW CLOSE TO THE COAST THE LOW
GETS AND THE POSITION OF THE TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION. SBU ENSEMBLE SENSITIVITY SHOWING THIS N/S TRACK UNCERTAINTY
IN THE 00Z GEFS/CMCE/ECMWF ENSEMBLES...WITH SENSITIVITY LYING IN
DEGREE OF PHASING/INTERACTION BETWEEN NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DROPPING DOWN THROUGH MONTANA AND THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW OVER
THE SW US...AND RESULTANT STRENGTH OF TROUGH APPROACHING THE EAST
COAST SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AND UPSTREAM RIDGING. A STRONGER
TROUGH...MEANING MORE UPSTREAM RIDGING...AND A FURTHER NORTH
TRACK. THIS INTERACTION IS NOT COMPLETE FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS...SO
COULD TAKE UNTIL THEN FOR CONFIDENCE IN P-TYPE FORECAST INCREASES.

WITH CONFLUENT FLOW ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND/SE CANADA...ARCTIC
HIGH SHOULD BE LOCKED INTO THAT AREA. PREFER TIGHTER THERMAL
STRUCTURE ALOFT OF NAM/ECMWF/CAN VERSUS MORE DIFFUSE THERMAL
STRUCTURE OF GFS IN THIS SITUATION...BUT QUESTION IS LOCATION OF
THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE. MODEL SOLUTIONS POINTING TO DIFFERING
DEGREES OF WARMING IN THE 800-950 LAYER MON MORNING INTO EARLY
AFT...BUT TREND IS TOWARDS MORE WARMING.

WITH THIS SAID...NORTHWEST TIER OF THE TRI-STATE LOOKS TO BE
MAINLY SNOW. BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE IS FOR COAST...ESPECIALLY
NYC/NJ/LI...IN AMOUNT OF SLEET/FZRA/RA VERSUS SNOW. 12Z GFS/GEFS
ARE FURTHER NORTH WITH LOW TRACK...JUST SOUTH OF LI MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH WOULD IMPLY MORE IN THE WAY OF WARMING
ALOFT...AND MORE IN WAY MIXING WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN AND
EVEN RAIN FOR LI/NYC. 12Z GEM HAS TRENDED IN THAT DIRECTION AS
WELL. 12Z NAM...WOULD POINT TO MAINLY SNOW FOR CT AND LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY...WITH A MIX OF SIGNIFICANT SNOW/SLEET ACCUM FOR
NYC/LI/METRO NJ. 00Z ECMWF...IS SIMILARLY COLDER AND A BIT FARTHER
SOUTH AS WITH THE NAM. HAVE TAKEN A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD SOLUTION
BASED ON THE UNCERTAINTY...WITH A SLIGHTLY WETTER AND WARMER
FORECAST.

EVEN WITH CONTINUED NORTHWARD TREND...HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN
SIGNIFICANT SNOW/SLEET/ICE ACROSS INTERIOR NE NJ...AND MOST OF THE
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND CT. HAVE UPGRADED TO WARNING THERE FOR 5
TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW/SLEET AND UP TO 1/4 INCH OF ICE. INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND SW CT...MORE IN THE 8 TO 14
INCH RANGE WITH LESS ICE/SLEET.

EVEN FOR NYC/NJ METRO AND LI...COULD SEE A QUICK 3 TO 5 INCH
SNOWFALL ON THE FRONT END WITH SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE AND STRONG
LIFT LATE SUN NIGHT/EARLY MON MORNING BEFORE ANY MIXING. AFTER
CHANGEOVER...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF FZRA/SLEET (1/4 INCH OF ICE)
POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN HALF OF LI/NYC AND NE NJ...WITH COLD AIR
DRAINAGE DOWN THE RIVER VALLEYS. HAVE MAINTAINED A WATCH HERE WITH
UNCERTAINTY IF WE CHANGEOVER TO MORE RAIN...PARTICULARLY FOR SOUTH
COASTAL AREAS. THE ONE ASPECT TO KEEP IN MIND IS IF COASTAL AREAS
DO GO OVER TO RAIN...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR URBAN FLOODING ISSUES.
SEE HYDROLOGY SECTION FOR MORE INFO.

ANY RAIN/MIXED PRECIP SHOULD GRADUALLY CHANGE BACK TO SNOW FROM NW
TO SE MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVE. EVEN SOME SIGNAL OF DEFORMATION BANDING
ON THE BACKSIDE...WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW BACK DOWN TO THE COAST.
WITH COLD AIR CRASHING BACK DOWN TO THE COAST...POTENTIAL FOR
FLASH FREEZE CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY EVENING COMMUTE FOR CITY/COAST
IN WAKE OF A WASHING RAIN. SO TO SAY THE LEAST...A COMPLICATED
FORECAST FOR THE NYC/NJ METRO AND LONG ISLAND...WHICH COULD STILL
SEE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EVEN IF IT IS NOT ALL FROZEN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A BROAD UPPER TROF WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK
FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES OF WESTERN CANADA SE INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION. THIS WILL KEEP A STEADY STREAM OF POLAR AIR
MASSES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WITH GENERALLY UNSEASONABLY COLD
CONDITIONS. THIS SEASON HAS BEEN TYPIFIED BY THIS FLOW REGIME WITH
NO BLOCK OVER GREENLAND. OCCASIONALLY...A STRONG SHORT WAVE BRIEFLY
AMPLIFIES THE FLOW...BUT REMAINS PROGRESSIVE.

THE ONLY CHANCE FOR PCPN LOOKS TO BE WITH A POLAR COLD FRONT WED
INTO WED NIGHT...WHICH WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SCT SNOW SNOW SHOWERS.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED WELL SOUTH AND EAST WITH A LATE WEEK COASTAL LOW
MOVING OUT OF THE GULF COAST STATES. THUS...HAVE TRENDED DOWN TO THE
POINT WHERE THERE IS NO MENTION OF PCPN LATE IN THE WEEK.
INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH THOUGH...MODELS HAVE BEEN WAVERING BACK AND
FORTH WITH THESE SYSTEMS...SO PERHAPS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE
WOODS.

THE ONLY DAY OF THE WEEK THAT LOOKS TO BE NEAR NORMAL WITH RESPECT
TO TEMPS IS WED AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

   **HIGH IMPACT EVENT SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY**

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING WEAKENS TONIGHT AS A
WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE APPROACH. THE WARM FRONT WILL
BE IN THE VICINITY BY 00Z MONDAY. LIGHT SNOW WILL BE DEVELOPING LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON MAINLY WEST OF THE NYC TERMINALS...AND BECOME
LIKELY AROUND 00Z MONDAY WITH CONDITIONS LOWERING TO IFR. THERE IS
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE TIMING OF THE BEGINNING OF THE
SNOW.

GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND SUBSIDE BY 03Z WITH THE WIND BECOMING MORE
WESTERLY...GENERALLY UNDER 10 KT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...HIGH IMPACT PERIOD. IFR HIGHLY LIKELY AS SNOW
DEVELOPS SUNDAY EVENING...THEN CONTINUES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. A
WINTRY MIX OF SLEET...SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN BECOMES LIKELY EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AT THE NYC METRO TERMINALS AND ACROSS LONG ISLAND.
THE WINTRY MIX PUSHES FARTHER NORTH DURING MONDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUES INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE GOING BACK TO ALL SNOW BEFORE
ENDING MONDAY EVENING.
.MONDAY NIGHT...BECOMING VFR AS SNOW COMES TO AN END. N-NW WIND 15
TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT.
.TUESDAY...VFR.
.WEDNESDAY...VFR. A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOCALLY MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS.
.THURSDAY...VFR. NW GUSTS 20 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT WITH A GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING NW FLOW. 5 TO 9 FT SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO
LESS THAN 5 FT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

TRANQUIL CONDS ON THE WATERS SUN AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVERHEAD AND
DEPARTS. CONDS RAMP UP TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE. A FEW
GALE GUSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A MARGINAL GALE EVENT MON NIGHT ON THE
BACKSIDE OF DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE LIFTING UP INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. WINDS AND SEAS ARE THEN FORECAST TO SUBSIDE BELOW SCA
LEVELS ON TUE WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE WATERS.
MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN WATERS WED IN A
PRE-FRONTAL SW FLOW...AND THEN IN THE NW POST-FRONTAL FLOW ON THU.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GENERALLY 1 TO 1 1/2 INCHES OF LIQUID FORECAST WITH THE SYSTEM
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. MOST OF THIS WILL BE SNOW AND SLEET
ACROSS NE NJ...LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND CT.

ACROSS LI/NYC THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF HEAVY
RAIN...WITH SOME MODELS SIGNALING UP TO 2 INCHES OF QPF.
ALTHOUGH THIS POTENTIAL IS LOW...IF MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE
NORTH...THIS POTENTIAL WOULD INCREASE...RESULTING IN URBAN
FLOODING ISSUES.

NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PCPN IS FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING THRESHOLDS
BEING REACHED WITH THE MONDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLE ALONG THE
WESTERN SOUTH SHORE BAYS AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF LI SOUND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR CTZ011-012.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     CTZ005>010.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ071>075-078>081-176>179.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     NYZ067>070.
NJ...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NJZ004-006-104>108.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     NJZ002-103.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-
     340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NV/DW
NEAR TERM...NV/DW
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...NV/DW
HYDROLOGY...NV/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NV









000
FXUS61 KOKX 312122
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
422 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TONIGHT...BEFORE A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND CROSSES ON SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY AND PASSES JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND MONDAY. THE
LOW TRACKS WELL TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN ITS PLACE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL LARGELY PREVAIL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
LATE WEDNESDAY. A DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE GULF COAST STATES LATE
IN THE WEEK LOOKS TO TAKE A TRACK WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR ZONAL FLOW TONIGHT WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
WEST THIS EVENING...AND THEN A POLAR FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
GREAT LAKES.

WINDS AND GUSTS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH MIDNIGHT...WITH INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.

TEMPS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS COLD WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
TEENS...EXCEPT 20S NYC/NJ METRO...WITH NEUTRAL TEMPS ADVECTION AND
LIMITED OPPORTUNITY FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. COULD SEE SOME SINGLE
DIGITS IN PINE BARRENS AND INTERIOR TRI-STATE WITH DECOUPLING BEFORE
CLOUDS MOVE IN.

PHASING NORTHERN STREAM AND SW US SHORTWAVE ENERGY BEGINS TO DIG
INTO THE CENTRAL US ON SUNDAY WITH GENERALLY WSW UPPER FLOW.

A WEAKENING POLAR FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION ON SUNDAY...BUT
OTHERWISE INCREASING AND LOWERING CLOUDS AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING
STORM SYSTEM. A FEW SNOW FLAKES MAY BE OBSERVED OVER NJ VERY LATE IN
THE DAY. TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAIN STORY WILL BE NEXT IN A SERIES OF WINTER STORMS AFFECTING THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH LOW PRESSURE TAKING SHAPE
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN TONIGHT...TRACKING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON
SUNDAY AND THEN JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. OVERALL
TREND HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH AND WETTER WITH THIS SYSTEM.

BASED ON COUPLED JET STRUCTURE...TIGHT LOW /MID- LEVEL THERMAL
STRUCTURE...AND GULF MOISTURE FEED OF 2-3 STD PWATS...CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH IN AT LEAST A 3/4 TO 1 1/2 INCH QPF EVENT FOR THE ENTIRE
AREA. THIS IS BOURNE OUT IN SREF/GEFS/CMCE 1 INCH/24 HR QPF PROBS.

SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY LIES IN P-TYPE...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE
COAST...WITH A SPREAD OF ABOUT 50 MILES BETWEEN OPERATIONAL
SOLUTIONS AND ENSEMBLE MEANS IN HOW CLOSE TO THE COAST THE LOW
GETS AND THE POSITION OF THE TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION. SBU ENSEMBLE SENSITIVITY SHOWING THIS N/S TRACK UNCERTAINTY
IN THE 00Z GEFS/CMCE/ECMWF ENSEMBLES...WITH SENSITIVITY LYING IN
DEGREE OF PHASING/INTERACTION BETWEEN NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DROPPING DOWN THROUGH MONTANA AND THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW OVER
THE SW US...AND RESULTANT STRENGTH OF TROUGH APPROACHING THE EAST
COAST SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AND UPSTREAM RIDGING. A STRONGER
TROUGH...MEANING MORE UPSTREAM RIDGING...AND A FURTHER NORTH
TRACK. THIS INTERACTION IS NOT COMPLETE FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS...SO
COULD TAKE UNTIL THEN FOR CONFIDENCE IN P-TYPE FORECAST INCREASES.

WITH CONFLUENT FLOW ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND/SE CANADA...ARCTIC
HIGH SHOULD BE LOCKED INTO THAT AREA. PREFER TIGHTER THERMAL
STRUCTURE ALOFT OF NAM/ECMWF/CAN VERSUS MORE DIFFUSE THERMAL
STRUCTURE OF GFS IN THIS SITUATION...BUT QUESTION IS LOCATION OF
THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE. MODEL SOLUTIONS POINTING TO DIFFERING
DEGREES OF WARMING IN THE 800-950 LAYER MON MORNING INTO EARLY
AFT...BUT TREND IS TOWARDS MORE WARMING.

WITH THIS SAID...NORTHWEST TIER OF THE TRI-STATE LOOKS TO BE
MAINLY SNOW. BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE IS FOR COAST...ESPECIALLY
NYC/NJ/LI...IN AMOUNT OF SLEET/FZRA/RA VERSUS SNOW. 12Z GFS/GEFS
ARE FURTHER NORTH WITH LOW TRACK...JUST SOUTH OF LI MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH WOULD IMPLY MORE IN THE WAY OF WARMING
ALOFT...AND MORE IN WAY MIXING WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN AND
EVEN RAIN FOR LI/NYC. 12Z GEM HAS TRENDED IN THAT DIRECTION AS
WELL. 12Z NAM...WOULD POINT TO MAINLY SNOW FOR CT AND LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY...WITH A MIX OF SIGNIFICANT SNOW/SLEET ACCUM FOR
NYC/LI/METRO NJ. 00Z ECMWF...IS SIMILARLY COLDER AND A BIT FARTHER
SOUTH AS WITH THE NAM. HAVE TAKEN A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD SOLUTION
BASED ON THE UNCERTAINTY...WITH A SLIGHTLY WETTER AND WARMER
FORECAST.

EVEN WITH CONTINUED NORTHWARD TREND...HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN
SIGNIFICANT SNOW/SLEET/ICE ACROSS INTERIOR NE NJ...AND MOST OF THE
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND CT. HAVE UPGRADED TO WARNING THERE FOR 5
TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW/SLEET AND UP TO 1/4 INCH OF ICE. INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND SW CT...MORE IN THE 8 TO 14
INCH RANGE WITH LESS ICE/SLEET.

EVEN FOR NYC/NJ METRO AND LI...COULD SEE A QUICK 3 TO 5 INCH
SNOWFALL ON THE FRONT END WITH SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE AND STRONG
LIFT LATE SUN NIGHT/EARLY MON MORNING BEFORE ANY MIXING. AFTER
CHANGEOVER...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF FZRA/SLEET (1/4 INCH OF ICE)
POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN HALF OF LI/NYC AND NE NJ...WITH COLD AIR
DRAINAGE DOWN THE RIVER VALLEYS. HAVE MAINTAINED A WATCH HERE WITH
UNCERTAINTY IF WE CHANGEOVER TO MORE RAIN...PARTICULARLY FOR SOUTH
COASTAL AREAS. THE ONE ASPECT TO KEEP IN MIND IS IF COASTAL AREAS
DO GO OVER TO RAIN...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR URBAN FLOODING ISSUES.
SEE HYDROLOGY SECTION FOR MORE INFO.

ANY RAIN/MIXED PRECIP SHOULD GRADUALLY CHANGE BACK TO SNOW FROM NW
TO SE MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVE. EVEN SOME SIGNAL OF DEFORMATION BANDING
ON THE BACKSIDE...WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW BACK DOWN TO THE COAST.
WITH COLD AIR CRASHING BACK DOWN TO THE COAST...POTENTIAL FOR
FLASH FREEZE CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY EVENING COMMUTE FOR CITY/COAST
IN WAKE OF A WASHING RAIN. SO TO SAY THE LEAST...A COMPLICATED
FORECAST FOR THE NYC/NJ METRO AND LONG ISLAND...WHICH COULD STILL
SEE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EVEN IF IT IS NOT ALL FROZEN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A BROAD UPPER TROF WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK
FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES OF WESTERN CANADA SE INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION. THIS WILL KEEP A STEADY STREAM OF POLAR AIR
MASSES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WITH GENERALLY UNSEASONABLY COLD
CONDITIONS. THIS SEASON HAS BEEN TYPIFIED BY THIS FLOW REGIME WITH
NO BLOCK OVER GREENLAND. OCCASIONALLY...A STRONG SHORT WAVE BRIEFLY
AMPLIFIES THE FLOW...BUT REMAINS PROGRESSIVE.

THE ONLY CHANCE FOR PCPN LOOKS TO BE WITH A POLAR COLD FRONT WED
INTO WED NIGHT...WHICH WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SCT SNOW SNOW SHOWERS.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED WELL SOUTH AND EAST WITH A LATE WEEK COASTAL LOW
MOVING OUT OF THE GULF COAST STATES. THUS...HAVE TRENDED DOWN TO THE
POINT WHERE THERE IS NO MENTION OF PCPN LATE IN THE WEEK.
INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH THOUGH...MODELS HAVE BEEN WAVERING BACK AND
FORTH WITH THESE SYSTEMS...SO PERHAPS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE
WOODS.

THE ONLY DAY OF THE WEEK THAT LOOKS TO BE NEAR NORMAL WITH RESPECT
TO TEMPS IS WED AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
**SEE OUTLOOK SECTION FOR HIGH IMPACT PERIOD OF SUN NIGHT-MONDAY**

VFR CONDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST.

WINDS AT OR FAVORING NORTH OF 310 MAG UNTIL AROUND 23Z...THEN
FAVORING SOUTH OF 310 THEREAFTER. WINDS MOSTLY WEST TONIGHT.
SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS GRADUALLY DIMINISH INTO THIS EVENING.
FREQUENT GUSTS END BY MIDNIGHT.

VFR FOR MOST OF SUNDAY. A LIGHT SNOW SHOWER POSSIBLE TOWARDS DARK.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SUNDAY PM...VFR.
.SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...HIGH IMPACT PERIOD. MVFR/IFR LIKELY. SNOW
DEVELOPS SUN EVENING AND CONTINUES THROUGH AROUND DAYBREAK. MIXED
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN LIKELY MON MORNING AND EARLY AFTN FOR CITY
TERMINALS AND KISP. MIXED PCPN CHANGES BACK TO SNOW LATE MON AFTN.
MIXED PCPN COULD AFFECT ALL OTHER TERMINALS AS WELL. E-NE G 25-30KT
MON AM BCMG N LATE.
.MONDAY NIGHT...BECOMING VFR AS SNOW COMES TO AN END. N-NW G 30KT.
.TUE...VFR.
.WED...VFR LIKELY. CHC SW G 20KT.
.THU...VFR NW G 20KT.

&&

.MARINE...
NW GALES THIS AFTERNOON...WILL SUBSIDE TO SCA AND THEN BELOW THIS
EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF ROUGH SEAS...STRONG WINDS...AND COLD
WATER TEMPS WILL ALSO RESULT IN AT LEAST MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY FOR
A FEW MORE HOURS...THEN IMPROVING CONDITIONS.

5 TO 9 FT SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 5 FT DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

TRANQUIL CONDS ON THE WATERS SUN AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVERHEAD AND
DEPARTS. CONDS RAMP UP TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE. A FEW
GALE GUSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A MARGINAL GALE EVENT MON NIGHT ON THE
BACKSIDE OF DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE LIFTING UP INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. WINDS AND SEAS ARE THEN FORECAST TO SUBSIDE BELOW SCA
LEVELS ON TUE WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE WATERS.
MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN WATERS WED IN A
PRE-FRONTAL SW FLOW...AND THEN IN THE NW POST-FRONTAL FLOW ON THU.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GENERALLY 1 TO 1 1/2 INCHES OF LIQUID FORECAST WITH THE SYSTEM
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. MOST OF THIS WILL BE SNOW AND SLEET
ACROSS NE NJ...LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND CT.

ACROSS LI/NYC THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF HEAVY
RAIN...WITH SOME MODELS SIGNALING UP TO 2 INCHES OF QPF.
ALTHOUGH THIS POTENTIAL IS LOW...IF MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE
NORTH...THIS POTENTIAL WOULD INCREASE...RESULTING IN URBAN
FLOODING ISSUES.

NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PCPN IS FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING THRESHOLDS
BEING REACHED WITH THE MONDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLE ALONG THE
WESTERN SOUTH SHORE BAYS AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF LI SOUND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR CTZ011-012.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     CTZ005>010.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ071>075-078>081-176>179.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     NYZ067>070.
NJ...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NJZ004-006-104>108.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     NJZ002-103.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-
     335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-335-338-
     340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NV/DW
NEAR TERM...NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...NV/DW
HYDROLOGY...NV/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NV







000
FXUS61 KOKX 312122
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
422 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TONIGHT...BEFORE A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND CROSSES ON SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY AND PASSES JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND MONDAY. THE
LOW TRACKS WELL TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN ITS PLACE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL LARGELY PREVAIL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
LATE WEDNESDAY. A DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE GULF COAST STATES LATE
IN THE WEEK LOOKS TO TAKE A TRACK WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR ZONAL FLOW TONIGHT WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
WEST THIS EVENING...AND THEN A POLAR FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
GREAT LAKES.

WINDS AND GUSTS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH MIDNIGHT...WITH INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.

TEMPS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS COLD WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
TEENS...EXCEPT 20S NYC/NJ METRO...WITH NEUTRAL TEMPS ADVECTION AND
LIMITED OPPORTUNITY FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. COULD SEE SOME SINGLE
DIGITS IN PINE BARRENS AND INTERIOR TRI-STATE WITH DECOUPLING BEFORE
CLOUDS MOVE IN.

PHASING NORTHERN STREAM AND SW US SHORTWAVE ENERGY BEGINS TO DIG
INTO THE CENTRAL US ON SUNDAY WITH GENERALLY WSW UPPER FLOW.

A WEAKENING POLAR FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION ON SUNDAY...BUT
OTHERWISE INCREASING AND LOWERING CLOUDS AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING
STORM SYSTEM. A FEW SNOW FLAKES MAY BE OBSERVED OVER NJ VERY LATE IN
THE DAY. TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAIN STORY WILL BE NEXT IN A SERIES OF WINTER STORMS AFFECTING THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH LOW PRESSURE TAKING SHAPE
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN TONIGHT...TRACKING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON
SUNDAY AND THEN JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. OVERALL
TREND HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH AND WETTER WITH THIS SYSTEM.

BASED ON COUPLED JET STRUCTURE...TIGHT LOW /MID- LEVEL THERMAL
STRUCTURE...AND GULF MOISTURE FEED OF 2-3 STD PWATS...CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH IN AT LEAST A 3/4 TO 1 1/2 INCH QPF EVENT FOR THE ENTIRE
AREA. THIS IS BOURNE OUT IN SREF/GEFS/CMCE 1 INCH/24 HR QPF PROBS.

SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY LIES IN P-TYPE...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE
COAST...WITH A SPREAD OF ABOUT 50 MILES BETWEEN OPERATIONAL
SOLUTIONS AND ENSEMBLE MEANS IN HOW CLOSE TO THE COAST THE LOW
GETS AND THE POSITION OF THE TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION. SBU ENSEMBLE SENSITIVITY SHOWING THIS N/S TRACK UNCERTAINTY
IN THE 00Z GEFS/CMCE/ECMWF ENSEMBLES...WITH SENSITIVITY LYING IN
DEGREE OF PHASING/INTERACTION BETWEEN NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DROPPING DOWN THROUGH MONTANA AND THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW OVER
THE SW US...AND RESULTANT STRENGTH OF TROUGH APPROACHING THE EAST
COAST SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AND UPSTREAM RIDGING. A STRONGER
TROUGH...MEANING MORE UPSTREAM RIDGING...AND A FURTHER NORTH
TRACK. THIS INTERACTION IS NOT COMPLETE FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS...SO
COULD TAKE UNTIL THEN FOR CONFIDENCE IN P-TYPE FORECAST INCREASES.

WITH CONFLUENT FLOW ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND/SE CANADA...ARCTIC
HIGH SHOULD BE LOCKED INTO THAT AREA. PREFER TIGHTER THERMAL
STRUCTURE ALOFT OF NAM/ECMWF/CAN VERSUS MORE DIFFUSE THERMAL
STRUCTURE OF GFS IN THIS SITUATION...BUT QUESTION IS LOCATION OF
THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE. MODEL SOLUTIONS POINTING TO DIFFERING
DEGREES OF WARMING IN THE 800-950 LAYER MON MORNING INTO EARLY
AFT...BUT TREND IS TOWARDS MORE WARMING.

WITH THIS SAID...NORTHWEST TIER OF THE TRI-STATE LOOKS TO BE
MAINLY SNOW. BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE IS FOR COAST...ESPECIALLY
NYC/NJ/LI...IN AMOUNT OF SLEET/FZRA/RA VERSUS SNOW. 12Z GFS/GEFS
ARE FURTHER NORTH WITH LOW TRACK...JUST SOUTH OF LI MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH WOULD IMPLY MORE IN THE WAY OF WARMING
ALOFT...AND MORE IN WAY MIXING WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN AND
EVEN RAIN FOR LI/NYC. 12Z GEM HAS TRENDED IN THAT DIRECTION AS
WELL. 12Z NAM...WOULD POINT TO MAINLY SNOW FOR CT AND LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY...WITH A MIX OF SIGNIFICANT SNOW/SLEET ACCUM FOR
NYC/LI/METRO NJ. 00Z ECMWF...IS SIMILARLY COLDER AND A BIT FARTHER
SOUTH AS WITH THE NAM. HAVE TAKEN A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD SOLUTION
BASED ON THE UNCERTAINTY...WITH A SLIGHTLY WETTER AND WARMER
FORECAST.

EVEN WITH CONTINUED NORTHWARD TREND...HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN
SIGNIFICANT SNOW/SLEET/ICE ACROSS INTERIOR NE NJ...AND MOST OF THE
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND CT. HAVE UPGRADED TO WARNING THERE FOR 5
TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW/SLEET AND UP TO 1/4 INCH OF ICE. INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND SW CT...MORE IN THE 8 TO 14
INCH RANGE WITH LESS ICE/SLEET.

EVEN FOR NYC/NJ METRO AND LI...COULD SEE A QUICK 3 TO 5 INCH
SNOWFALL ON THE FRONT END WITH SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE AND STRONG
LIFT LATE SUN NIGHT/EARLY MON MORNING BEFORE ANY MIXING. AFTER
CHANGEOVER...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF FZRA/SLEET (1/4 INCH OF ICE)
POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN HALF OF LI/NYC AND NE NJ...WITH COLD AIR
DRAINAGE DOWN THE RIVER VALLEYS. HAVE MAINTAINED A WATCH HERE WITH
UNCERTAINTY IF WE CHANGEOVER TO MORE RAIN...PARTICULARLY FOR SOUTH
COASTAL AREAS. THE ONE ASPECT TO KEEP IN MIND IS IF COASTAL AREAS
DO GO OVER TO RAIN...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR URBAN FLOODING ISSUES.
SEE HYDROLOGY SECTION FOR MORE INFO.

ANY RAIN/MIXED PRECIP SHOULD GRADUALLY CHANGE BACK TO SNOW FROM NW
TO SE MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVE. EVEN SOME SIGNAL OF DEFORMATION BANDING
ON THE BACKSIDE...WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW BACK DOWN TO THE COAST.
WITH COLD AIR CRASHING BACK DOWN TO THE COAST...POTENTIAL FOR
FLASH FREEZE CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY EVENING COMMUTE FOR CITY/COAST
IN WAKE OF A WASHING RAIN. SO TO SAY THE LEAST...A COMPLICATED
FORECAST FOR THE NYC/NJ METRO AND LONG ISLAND...WHICH COULD STILL
SEE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EVEN IF IT IS NOT ALL FROZEN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A BROAD UPPER TROF WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK
FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES OF WESTERN CANADA SE INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION. THIS WILL KEEP A STEADY STREAM OF POLAR AIR
MASSES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WITH GENERALLY UNSEASONABLY COLD
CONDITIONS. THIS SEASON HAS BEEN TYPIFIED BY THIS FLOW REGIME WITH
NO BLOCK OVER GREENLAND. OCCASIONALLY...A STRONG SHORT WAVE BRIEFLY
AMPLIFIES THE FLOW...BUT REMAINS PROGRESSIVE.

THE ONLY CHANCE FOR PCPN LOOKS TO BE WITH A POLAR COLD FRONT WED
INTO WED NIGHT...WHICH WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SCT SNOW SNOW SHOWERS.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED WELL SOUTH AND EAST WITH A LATE WEEK COASTAL LOW
MOVING OUT OF THE GULF COAST STATES. THUS...HAVE TRENDED DOWN TO THE
POINT WHERE THERE IS NO MENTION OF PCPN LATE IN THE WEEK.
INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH THOUGH...MODELS HAVE BEEN WAVERING BACK AND
FORTH WITH THESE SYSTEMS...SO PERHAPS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE
WOODS.

THE ONLY DAY OF THE WEEK THAT LOOKS TO BE NEAR NORMAL WITH RESPECT
TO TEMPS IS WED AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
**SEE OUTLOOK SECTION FOR HIGH IMPACT PERIOD OF SUN NIGHT-MONDAY**

VFR CONDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST.

WINDS AT OR FAVORING NORTH OF 310 MAG UNTIL AROUND 23Z...THEN
FAVORING SOUTH OF 310 THEREAFTER. WINDS MOSTLY WEST TONIGHT.
SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS GRADUALLY DIMINISH INTO THIS EVENING.
FREQUENT GUSTS END BY MIDNIGHT.

VFR FOR MOST OF SUNDAY. A LIGHT SNOW SHOWER POSSIBLE TOWARDS DARK.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SUNDAY PM...VFR.
.SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...HIGH IMPACT PERIOD. MVFR/IFR LIKELY. SNOW
DEVELOPS SUN EVENING AND CONTINUES THROUGH AROUND DAYBREAK. MIXED
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN LIKELY MON MORNING AND EARLY AFTN FOR CITY
TERMINALS AND KISP. MIXED PCPN CHANGES BACK TO SNOW LATE MON AFTN.
MIXED PCPN COULD AFFECT ALL OTHER TERMINALS AS WELL. E-NE G 25-30KT
MON AM BCMG N LATE.
.MONDAY NIGHT...BECOMING VFR AS SNOW COMES TO AN END. N-NW G 30KT.
.TUE...VFR.
.WED...VFR LIKELY. CHC SW G 20KT.
.THU...VFR NW G 20KT.

&&

.MARINE...
NW GALES THIS AFTERNOON...WILL SUBSIDE TO SCA AND THEN BELOW THIS
EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF ROUGH SEAS...STRONG WINDS...AND COLD
WATER TEMPS WILL ALSO RESULT IN AT LEAST MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY FOR
A FEW MORE HOURS...THEN IMPROVING CONDITIONS.

5 TO 9 FT SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 5 FT DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

TRANQUIL CONDS ON THE WATERS SUN AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVERHEAD AND
DEPARTS. CONDS RAMP UP TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE. A FEW
GALE GUSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A MARGINAL GALE EVENT MON NIGHT ON THE
BACKSIDE OF DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE LIFTING UP INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. WINDS AND SEAS ARE THEN FORECAST TO SUBSIDE BELOW SCA
LEVELS ON TUE WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE WATERS.
MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN WATERS WED IN A
PRE-FRONTAL SW FLOW...AND THEN IN THE NW POST-FRONTAL FLOW ON THU.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GENERALLY 1 TO 1 1/2 INCHES OF LIQUID FORECAST WITH THE SYSTEM
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. MOST OF THIS WILL BE SNOW AND SLEET
ACROSS NE NJ...LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND CT.

ACROSS LI/NYC THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF HEAVY
RAIN...WITH SOME MODELS SIGNALING UP TO 2 INCHES OF QPF.
ALTHOUGH THIS POTENTIAL IS LOW...IF MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE
NORTH...THIS POTENTIAL WOULD INCREASE...RESULTING IN URBAN
FLOODING ISSUES.

NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PCPN IS FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING THRESHOLDS
BEING REACHED WITH THE MONDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLE ALONG THE
WESTERN SOUTH SHORE BAYS AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF LI SOUND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR CTZ011-012.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     CTZ005>010.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ071>075-078>081-176>179.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     NYZ067>070.
NJ...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NJZ004-006-104>108.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     NJZ002-103.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-
     335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-335-338-
     340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NV/DW
NEAR TERM...NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...NV/DW
HYDROLOGY...NV/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NV






000
FXUS61 KALY 312118
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
418 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE ARCTIC HIGH ACROSS THE REGION WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. IT
WILL NOT BE AS COLD...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE BELOW
NORMAL. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO THE AREA. THE
HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DRIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES TONIGHT. THE SFC HIGH THAT RIDGED IN FROM THE TN AND OH
VALLEYS WILL WEAKEN...AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IN THE W/NW FLOW WILL
ZIPS TOWARDS NY AND NEW ENGLAND FROM SWERN QUEBEC AND THE ERN GREAT
LAKES REGION.  THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ITS ASSOCIATED
CLIPPER LOW DO NOT HAVE MUCH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.  THE
SFC DEWPTS ARE VERY LOW IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO 10 BELOW ZERO.
SOUNDING PROFILES ARE VERY DRY IN THE LOW-LEVELS WITH JUST AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS FROM THE W/NW TO THE S/SE ACROSS THE FCST AREA.

THE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE WEAKENING SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT.  THE BEST CHC FOR SNOW SHOWERS WITH LIGHT ACCUMS
WILL BE ALONG THE WRN SPINE OF THE SW/W DACKS...AND PERHAPS THE
W-CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY.  ACCUMS WILL BE LIGHT ON THE ORDER OF AN INCH
OR LESS.

TEMPS WILL DROP OFF SLIGHTLY BEFORE THE CLOUDS INCREASE.  LOWS WILL
BE IN THE ZERO TO 5 BELOW RANGE ACROSS THE SRN DACKS AND PARTS OF
THE LAKE GEORGE REGION. SINGLE DIGITS WILL BE COMMON IN MOST OTHER
LOCATIONS EXCEPT FOR PARTS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY WHERE LOWS WILL
BE NEAR 10F.

TOMORROW...THE MOISTURE STARVED CLIPPER AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION.  THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL STALL NEAR THE PA/MA BORDER AND CNTRL NJ WESTWARD INTO THE
MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY.  A 1030 HPA OR SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL BUILD IN
FROM SE OF JAMES BAY.  THE SKIES MAY BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY OVER THE
NRN TIER OF THE FCST AREA.  H850 TEMPS FALL TO -10C TO -15C NORTH
AND WEST OF ALBANY...AND -8C TO -10C TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.  MAX
TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN TODAY...BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL BY
10 TO 15 DEGREES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND U20S FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION SOUTH AND EAST AND TEENS TO LOWER 20S TO THE NORTH AND
WEST...WITH SOME SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE SRN DACKS.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE SRN TIER IN THE AFTERNOON...AND
WILL THICKEN AND LOWER TOWARDS 6 PM.  SOME LIGHT OVER RUNNING
SNOWFALL MAY REACH THE SE CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY BTWN 4-6
PM. SOME SLIGHT AND LOW CHC POPS WERE INTRODUCED THERE...BUT A DRY
COLUMN MAY YIELD QUITE A BIT OF VIRGA AT THE ONSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AS A VIGOROUS
NORTHERN STEAM SHORT WAVE COMBINES WITH SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE.
THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY
AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING.


ARCTIC HIGH WILL CONTINUE WEAKEN SUNDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
TO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO TRACK EASTWARD AND MOVE OFF THE DELMARVA COAST ON MONDAY. THERE
HAS BEEN GUIDANCE DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AS
IT HEADS OFFSHORE. THE GFS NOW HAS THE LOW MOVING ALONG THE COAST
ACROSS THE NEW YORK CITY AND LONG ISLAND WHILE THE NAM AND ECMWF
REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE. THE GUIDANCE DOES CONTINUE TO KEEP THE SYSTEM
PROGRESSIVE WITH AN OPEN WAVE ALOFT.

SNOW RATIOS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST ARE EXPECTED
TO START OUT HIGH THEN TRENDED TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY...WHILE RATIOS
WILL REMAIN HIGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA ESPECIALLY AS YOU
HEAD NORTHWARD. THE ENSEMBLE PROBABILISTIC FOR SNOW RATIOS INDICATE
60+% FOR ALBANY AND 64+% FOR GLENS FALLS TO HAVE RATIOS OF 15:1 OR
GREATER.

ALL THIS LEADS TO CONFIDENCE TO UPGRADE THE WATCH TO A WARNING AND
TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...NORTHERN HERKIMER...HAMILTON...NORTHERN WARREN AND NORTHERN
WASHINGTON COUNTIES.

BASED ON THE FORECASTED ONSET OF SNOW HAVE MADE THE START TIME FOR
THE WARNING 9 PM SUNDAY AND THE WATCH AT MIDNIGHT. BOTH RUN
THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY.

THE HEAVIEST MOST INTENSE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM ABOUT 09Z-15Z
MONDAY...IMPACTING THE MORNING COMMUTE TIME...WHEN THE LOW LEVEL JET
WILL BE AT ITS STRONGEST AT 60-70 KNOTS AND PASSING TO OUR SOUTH.
SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES AN HOUR CAN BE EXPECTED. THE SNOW
WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON TAPERING OFF LATE.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS STORM ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR. THIS ALONG
WITH A FRESH SNOW COVER...TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT ARE ANTICIPATED
TO DROP TO ZERO OR BELOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH 10 DEGREES
BELOW ZERO AND COLDER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. MAY NEED
WIND CHILL WARNING AND ADVISORIES FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...HAVE HIGHLIGHTED IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND QUICKLY SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. ANOTHER
COLD DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS...15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL CONTINUE WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND ANOTHER CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A CLIPPER
SYSTEM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE
APPROACHING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC
LIFT PRIMARILY CONFINED TO UPSLOPE-FAVORED AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. ANY ACCUMULATIONS TUESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT...GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH.

THE CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED BETTER DYNAMICS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY...WITH A LIGHT SNOWFALL EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF THE REGION. EXACT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN AT
THIS TIME...BUT A COUPLE OF INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA IS
POSSIBLE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. AS THE CLIPPER SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY. THIS ARCTIC FRONT WILL USHER IN ANOTHER BITTERLY COLD
AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY IMPACT
THE REGION HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL MODERATE SOMEWHAT INTO THE MID 20S
TO LOW 30S ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM...BUT ONLY
RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO UPPER TEENS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
SOME LOCATIONS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY POSSIBLY REACHING INTO THE
LOW 20S. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE 20S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS SATURDAY...WITH UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 5 BELOW ZERO TO 5
ABOVE ZERO...AND ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM NEAR ZERO TO THE SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS TO LOW AND MID TEENS ACROSS
THE CAPITAL REGION...WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MID HUDSON VALLEY.
THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES 5 TO
15 BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE ARCTIC
FRONT. WIND CHILL HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED AS WELL AS A LIGHT
WESTERLY WIND ALLOWS WIND CHILL VALUES TO PLUMMET TO 15 TO 30 BELOW
ZERO. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 5 BELOW ZERO TO
5 ABOVE ZERO WITH WIND CHILLS WELL BELOW ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY RIDGE IN THIS AFTERNOON...AS A CLIPPER
LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND SE ONTARIO
TONIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH BY SUNDAY MORNING...AND
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MOST OF THE NEXT 24 HRS FOR
KALB/KPSF/KGFL/KPOU. SOME CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTH AND
WEST BTWN 00Z-06Z. THE CIGS WILL LOWER TO 3-6 KFT AGL BTWN 06Z-
12Z. THE BEST CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS WILL BE AT KPSF. ONCE THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES E/SE AFTER 12Z/SUN...THE SKIES WILL GRADUALLY
BECOME PARTLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

W/NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 10-15 KT THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME
GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS AT KALB/KPSF. THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT FROM
THE N TO W AT LESS THAN 6 KTS OVERNIGHT. THE WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE W TO NW AT 5-10 KTS SUNDAY LATE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-MON: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SN.
MON NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
TUE-TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WED-WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO THE AREA

CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH ICE THICKEN ON
RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ALBANY SEASON SNOWFALL TOTAL THROUGH JANUARY 30TH STANDS AT 40 INCHES
WHICH IS 6.4 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     NYZ038>041-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ032-033-042-043.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...IAA







000
FXUS61 KALY 312118
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
418 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE ARCTIC HIGH ACROSS THE REGION WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. IT
WILL NOT BE AS COLD...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE BELOW
NORMAL. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO THE AREA. THE
HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DRIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES TONIGHT. THE SFC HIGH THAT RIDGED IN FROM THE TN AND OH
VALLEYS WILL WEAKEN...AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IN THE W/NW FLOW WILL
ZIPS TOWARDS NY AND NEW ENGLAND FROM SWERN QUEBEC AND THE ERN GREAT
LAKES REGION.  THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ITS ASSOCIATED
CLIPPER LOW DO NOT HAVE MUCH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.  THE
SFC DEWPTS ARE VERY LOW IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO 10 BELOW ZERO.
SOUNDING PROFILES ARE VERY DRY IN THE LOW-LEVELS WITH JUST AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS FROM THE W/NW TO THE S/SE ACROSS THE FCST AREA.

THE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE WEAKENING SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT.  THE BEST CHC FOR SNOW SHOWERS WITH LIGHT ACCUMS
WILL BE ALONG THE WRN SPINE OF THE SW/W DACKS...AND PERHAPS THE
W-CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY.  ACCUMS WILL BE LIGHT ON THE ORDER OF AN INCH
OR LESS.

TEMPS WILL DROP OFF SLIGHTLY BEFORE THE CLOUDS INCREASE.  LOWS WILL
BE IN THE ZERO TO 5 BELOW RANGE ACROSS THE SRN DACKS AND PARTS OF
THE LAKE GEORGE REGION. SINGLE DIGITS WILL BE COMMON IN MOST OTHER
LOCATIONS EXCEPT FOR PARTS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY WHERE LOWS WILL
BE NEAR 10F.

TOMORROW...THE MOISTURE STARVED CLIPPER AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION.  THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL STALL NEAR THE PA/MA BORDER AND CNTRL NJ WESTWARD INTO THE
MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY.  A 1030 HPA OR SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL BUILD IN
FROM SE OF JAMES BAY.  THE SKIES MAY BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY OVER THE
NRN TIER OF THE FCST AREA.  H850 TEMPS FALL TO -10C TO -15C NORTH
AND WEST OF ALBANY...AND -8C TO -10C TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.  MAX
TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN TODAY...BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL BY
10 TO 15 DEGREES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND U20S FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION SOUTH AND EAST AND TEENS TO LOWER 20S TO THE NORTH AND
WEST...WITH SOME SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE SRN DACKS.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE SRN TIER IN THE AFTERNOON...AND
WILL THICKEN AND LOWER TOWARDS 6 PM.  SOME LIGHT OVER RUNNING
SNOWFALL MAY REACH THE SE CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY BTWN 4-6
PM. SOME SLIGHT AND LOW CHC POPS WERE INTRODUCED THERE...BUT A DRY
COLUMN MAY YIELD QUITE A BIT OF VIRGA AT THE ONSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AS A VIGOROUS
NORTHERN STEAM SHORT WAVE COMBINES WITH SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE.
THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY
AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING.


ARCTIC HIGH WILL CONTINUE WEAKEN SUNDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
TO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO TRACK EASTWARD AND MOVE OFF THE DELMARVA COAST ON MONDAY. THERE
HAS BEEN GUIDANCE DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AS
IT HEADS OFFSHORE. THE GFS NOW HAS THE LOW MOVING ALONG THE COAST
ACROSS THE NEW YORK CITY AND LONG ISLAND WHILE THE NAM AND ECMWF
REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE. THE GUIDANCE DOES CONTINUE TO KEEP THE SYSTEM
PROGRESSIVE WITH AN OPEN WAVE ALOFT.

SNOW RATIOS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST ARE EXPECTED
TO START OUT HIGH THEN TRENDED TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY...WHILE RATIOS
WILL REMAIN HIGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA ESPECIALLY AS YOU
HEAD NORTHWARD. THE ENSEMBLE PROBABILISTIC FOR SNOW RATIOS INDICATE
60+% FOR ALBANY AND 64+% FOR GLENS FALLS TO HAVE RATIOS OF 15:1 OR
GREATER.

ALL THIS LEADS TO CONFIDENCE TO UPGRADE THE WATCH TO A WARNING AND
TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...NORTHERN HERKIMER...HAMILTON...NORTHERN WARREN AND NORTHERN
WASHINGTON COUNTIES.

BASED ON THE FORECASTED ONSET OF SNOW HAVE MADE THE START TIME FOR
THE WARNING 9 PM SUNDAY AND THE WATCH AT MIDNIGHT. BOTH RUN
THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY.

THE HEAVIEST MOST INTENSE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM ABOUT 09Z-15Z
MONDAY...IMPACTING THE MORNING COMMUTE TIME...WHEN THE LOW LEVEL JET
WILL BE AT ITS STRONGEST AT 60-70 KNOTS AND PASSING TO OUR SOUTH.
SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES AN HOUR CAN BE EXPECTED. THE SNOW
WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON TAPERING OFF LATE.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS STORM ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR. THIS ALONG
WITH A FRESH SNOW COVER...TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT ARE ANTICIPATED
TO DROP TO ZERO OR BELOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH 10 DEGREES
BELOW ZERO AND COLDER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. MAY NEED
WIND CHILL WARNING AND ADVISORIES FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...HAVE HIGHLIGHTED IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND QUICKLY SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. ANOTHER
COLD DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS...15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL CONTINUE WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND ANOTHER CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A CLIPPER
SYSTEM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE
APPROACHING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC
LIFT PRIMARILY CONFINED TO UPSLOPE-FAVORED AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. ANY ACCUMULATIONS TUESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT...GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH.

THE CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED BETTER DYNAMICS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY...WITH A LIGHT SNOWFALL EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF THE REGION. EXACT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN AT
THIS TIME...BUT A COUPLE OF INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA IS
POSSIBLE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. AS THE CLIPPER SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY. THIS ARCTIC FRONT WILL USHER IN ANOTHER BITTERLY COLD
AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY IMPACT
THE REGION HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL MODERATE SOMEWHAT INTO THE MID 20S
TO LOW 30S ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM...BUT ONLY
RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO UPPER TEENS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
SOME LOCATIONS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY POSSIBLY REACHING INTO THE
LOW 20S. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE 20S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS SATURDAY...WITH UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 5 BELOW ZERO TO 5
ABOVE ZERO...AND ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM NEAR ZERO TO THE SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS TO LOW AND MID TEENS ACROSS
THE CAPITAL REGION...WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MID HUDSON VALLEY.
THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES 5 TO
15 BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE ARCTIC
FRONT. WIND CHILL HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED AS WELL AS A LIGHT
WESTERLY WIND ALLOWS WIND CHILL VALUES TO PLUMMET TO 15 TO 30 BELOW
ZERO. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 5 BELOW ZERO TO
5 ABOVE ZERO WITH WIND CHILLS WELL BELOW ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY RIDGE IN THIS AFTERNOON...AS A CLIPPER
LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND SE ONTARIO
TONIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH BY SUNDAY MORNING...AND
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MOST OF THE NEXT 24 HRS FOR
KALB/KPSF/KGFL/KPOU. SOME CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTH AND
WEST BTWN 00Z-06Z. THE CIGS WILL LOWER TO 3-6 KFT AGL BTWN 06Z-
12Z. THE BEST CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS WILL BE AT KPSF. ONCE THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES E/SE AFTER 12Z/SUN...THE SKIES WILL GRADUALLY
BECOME PARTLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

W/NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 10-15 KT THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME
GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS AT KALB/KPSF. THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT FROM
THE N TO W AT LESS THAN 6 KTS OVERNIGHT. THE WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE W TO NW AT 5-10 KTS SUNDAY LATE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-MON: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SN.
MON NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
TUE-TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WED-WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO THE AREA

CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH ICE THICKEN ON
RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ALBANY SEASON SNOWFALL TOTAL THROUGH JANUARY 30TH STANDS AT 40 INCHES
WHICH IS 6.4 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     NYZ038>041-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ032-033-042-043.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...IAA








000
FXUS61 KBOX 312115
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
415 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BLUSTERY AND VERY COLD CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW. A
MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT THE REGION VERY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY EVENING WITH HEAVY SNOW FOR MANY LOCATIONS. BITTERLY
COLD WIND CHILLS FOLLOW LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
MODERATING TEMPS WEDNESDAY THEN VERY COLD CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. A COASTAL STORM WILL PASS WELL SOUTH
OF NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE WEEK BUT WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

430 PM UPDATE...

FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. LOW
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVE TOWARDS THE
MARITIMES...ALLOWING FOR THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT TO CONTINUE.
LATEST OBS AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT WIND GUSTS WILL BEGIN TO
SLOWLY SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON...AND WITH MANY SITES BELOW ADV
CONDITIONS PLAN ON LETTING THE ADV GO EXCEPT FOR THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS.

TONIGHT...

DEEPENING LOW WILL MOVE WELL TOWARDS THE MARITIMES TONIGHT ALLOWING
FOR WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING INTO THE REGION. STILL A DESCENT PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVERNIGHT...ESP ACROSS THE EAST COAST SO ANTICIPATE WIND
GUSTS TO REMAIN UP. HOWEVER ACROSS THE CT VALLEY REGION WINDS LOOK
TO DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT SO EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP WELL INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND MAY BE CLOSE TO ZERO ESP AT ORE. HOWEVER WITH LIGHT
WINDS...WIND CHILL ADV ARE NOT NEEDED. BIGGEST ISSUE WITH THESE
COOLING TEMPS IS THE SKY COVER. AHEAD OF APPROACHING ARCTIC
FRONT...MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH.
THIS MAY LIMIT TEMPS...SO PLAYED THEM A TAD CONSERVATIVE.

TOMORROW...

850MB ARCTIC FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TOMORROW. HOWEVER
TEMPS WILL BE WARMER THAN TODAY AS 925 MB TEMPS JUMP FROM -13C TO
-8C. EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE MID 20S TO PERHAPS THE LOW 30S
ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN. MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY WHICH WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER.
OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE CALMER AND DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAJOR WINTER STORM VERY LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON EVENING
* HEAVY SNOWFALL EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE REGION
* BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY SNOWFALL AMTS NEAR SOUTH COAST - PTYPE ISSUES
* BITTERLY COLD AIR LATE MON NIGHT - WIND CHILLS 15 TO 25 BELOW ZERO

DETAILS...

A MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND VERY LATE SUN
NIGHT INTO MONDAY EVENING.  ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA WILL COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
THE RESULT WILL BE STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER RUNNING THE
ARCTIC DOME AT THE SURFACE.  THEN AS THE LOW DEEPENS...MUCH OF THE
REGION WILL SEE SNOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM.  BIGGEST
UNCERTAINTY IS HOW MUCH OF THE REGION TRANSITIONS TO A PERIOD OF
MIXED PTYPE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE EVENT...CUTTING DOWN ON
POSSIBLE SNOW ACCUMS.

1) TIMING AND UNCERTAINTY

SNOW WILL LIKELY ARRIVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST VERY LATE SUN
EVENING IN OUR WESTERN ZONES AND AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE REST OF
THE REGION.  EXTREMELY TIGHT MID LEVEL THERMAL PACKING WILL ALLOW
SNOW TO QUICKLY BECOME HEAVY.  SNOW WILL FALL HEAVY MONDAY MORNING
AT 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR AND SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT THE AM RUSH HOUR.

THINGS THEN BECOME MORE UNCERTAIN LATER IN THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.  THE GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN SURGING WARM MID LEVEL AIR
TO THE MA PIKE...RESULTING IN A CHANGE TO A PERIOD OF SLEET/FREEZING
RAIN AND EVEN PLAIN RAIN ALONG THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.
THE NAM/ECMWF/GGEM APPEAR THE COLDEST KEEPING MOST AREAS HEAVY
SNOW...EXCEPT FOR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.  THE UKMET APPEARS TO BE IN
BETWEEN THE OTHER SOLUTIONS.  GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WILL BLEND THE
MODELS.  RIGHT NOW WERE THINKING TRANSITION AREA MAY GET BRIEFLY
NEAR OR PERHAPS JUST NORTH OF THE THE TAUNTON TO PROVIDENCE
CORRIDOR...BEFORE COLLAPSING SOUTHEAST.

REGARDLESS HOW FAR NORTH THE TRANSITION LINE GETS...MOST AREAS WILL
CHANGE BACK TO SNOW MON EVENING.  GIVEN CLOSED MID LEVEL CENTERS AND
VERY COLD NORTHEAST FLOW...COULD BE SOME OCEAN ENHANCEMENT ACROSS
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND FOR A TIME BEFORE SNOW ENDS.  BULK OF SNOW
SHOULD WIND DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT ALTHOUGH THE GGEM IS A BIT SLOWER.

2) SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS AND HEADLINES

WE ARE PRETTY CONFIDENT IN A HEAVY SNOWFALL FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION...EXCEPT FOR AREAS NEAR THE SOUTH COAST WHERE PTYPE ISSUES
MAYBE MORE PROBLEMATIC.  8 TO 14 INCHES EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION.  HAVE UPGRADED ALL AREAS FROM PROVIDENCE TO TAUNTON
NORTHWARD TO WINTER STORM WARNING/S WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON CRITERIA
BEING MET.  AREAS SOUTHEAST OF THAT LINE...THERE IS SOME MORE
UNCERTAINTY ESP CAPE/ISLANDS.  IF A LOT OF MIXING OCCURS THESE AREAS
MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH WARNING CRITERIA...BUT ITS STILL CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON MODEL TRENDS.  THEREFORE...WE HAVE HELD THE
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTH COAST AND THE ISLANDS.

3) STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW

NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 50 MPH EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS STORM INTENSIFIES AND PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES.  THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN POOR VISIBILITY ALONG WITH
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.  ITS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW LOCATIONS ALONG
THE COAST COULD SEE NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FOR A VERY SHORT
TIME...BUT STORM DOESN/T SEEM TO WARRANT THOSE TYPE OF HEADLINES.

4) BITTERLY COLD AIR MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

TEMPS WILL LIKELY PLUNGE BELOW ZERO TO 5 ABOVE ZERO IN MANY
LOCATIONS BY EARLY TUE MORNING.  THIS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS
VALUES BETWEEN 15 AND 25 BELOW ZERO. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* COLD PATTERN CONTINUES THRU NEXT WEEKEND
* CLIPPER LOW APPEARING MORE LIKELY THAN COASTAL LOW WED/THU

GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG 12Z DETERMINISTIC...12Z GEFS AND 00Z ECENS
ENSEMBLES THAT THE POLAR JET WILL DOMINATE THE NORTHERN TIER STATES
INCLUDING NEW ENGLAND THIS PERIOD. THIS COMBINED WITH STREAMS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNPHASED WILL SUPPORT MAINLY DRY WEATHER THIS
PERIOD. ONE CAVEAT WILL BE CLIPPER LOW ENTERING THE NORTHEAST
WED/WED NIGHT. EARLIER MODEL RUNS SUGGESTED SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT SOUTHWEST OF NEW ENGLAND...WITH
POSSIBLE COASTAL-OCEAN STORM IMPACTING OUR REGION AROUND THU.
HOWEVER LATEST GUID INCLUDING ENSEMBLES SUGGEST MID LEVEL TROUGH
WILL LACK SUFFICIENT AMPLITUDE TO BACK THE FLOW FOR A SECONDARY LOW
TO IMPACT THE REGION. THEREFORE LEANING TOWARD A MORE OFFSHORE TRACK
AND JUST A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE WED/WED NIGHT. HOWEVER AT
THIS TIME RANGE CAN/T BE TOO DETERMINISTIC. THUS WON`T TOTALLY
DISCOUNT CLOSER SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT.

AS FOR TEMPS...BITTERLY COLD TUE BEHIND DEPARTING MON NGT COASTAL
LOW. THEN COLD EASES WED AHEAD OF APPROACHING CLIPPER LOW FOLLOWED
BUT YET ANOTHER ARCTIC BLAST LATE IN THE WEEK BEHIND THE CLIPPER. AS
FOR INTO NEXT WEEKEND ENSEMBLE TRENDS SUGGEST TEMPS COLDER THAN
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM.../THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

BEFORE 00Z...VFR WITH NW GUSTS TO 30-40 KT DIMINISHING AFTER
SUNSET.

AFTER 00Z...VFR WITH GRADUAL DIMINISHING WIND.

SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR...BUT LOW PROB FOR AREAS OF MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.  VFR SUNDAY EVENING DETERIORATES TO IFR-LIFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW BY DAYBREAK MON AND CONTINUES
AT TIMES INTO MONDAY EVENING.  PTYPE MAY TRANSITION TO A PERIOD OF
SLEET/FREEZING RAIN/RAIN NEAR AND SOUTHEAST OF A PROVIDENCE TO
TAUNTON LINE.  NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 45 KNOTS EXPECTED ALONG
THE COAST.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR ON
TUESDAY. COULD SEE SOME MVFR CIGS IN SCT SNOW SHOWERS ON
WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW RISK OF MVFR
ALONG SOUTHEAST MASS DEPENDING ON TRACK OF CLIPPER LOW.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...STRONG LOW PRESSURE PULLS FARTHER AWAY WITH WINDS
DIMINISHING BELOW GALE AFTER 06Z...BUT GUSTS 25-30 KT WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY LIKELY
CONTINUING...ESPECIALLY E MA COASTAL WATERS.

SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGHOUT THE DAY BUT EXPECT SCA
WAVES TO REMAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY WILL
PERSIST.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

***STRONG GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS/HIGH SEAS AND THE RISK OF HEAVY
  FREEZING SPRAY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT***

WINDS/SEAS QUICKLY RAMP UP VERY LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON AS LOW
PRESSURE INTENSIFIES NEAR THE SOUTH COAST. GALE WATCHES ISSUED FOR
EXPECTED 40+ KNOT NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS BY MON MORNING ALONG WITH
SEAS BUILDING TO 15+ FEET ACROSS OUR EASTERN WATERS BY LATE MON
AFTERNOON/EVENING. IN ADDITION...BITTERLY COLD AIR MOVING OVER THE
WATERS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. HAVE ALSO ISSUED A FREEZING SPRAY WATCH.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE TO HIGH FORECAST
CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY...NW GALES LIKELY ALONG WITH FREEZING SPRAY...POSSIBLY
MODERATE TO HEAVY. MAINLY DRY WITH GOOD VSBY EXCEPT FAR OFFSHORE
WHERE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE COMMON.

WED...WINDS EASE AND BECOME SOUTHWEST AS CLIPPER LOW ENTERS THE
GREAT LAKES AND NY STATE. NOT AS COLD SO FREEZING SPRAY UNLIKELY.
VSBY MAY BRIEFLY LOWER IN A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW.

THU...ARCTIC FRONT WITH NW GALES BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE. MODERATE TO
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY POSSIBLE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

*** MINOR TO PERHAPS ISOLATED AREAS OF MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING
  POSSIBLE MON/MON NIGHT EASTERN MA COASTLINE ***

GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON SURFACE LOW TRACKING SOMEWHERE BETWEEN
NANTUCKET AND THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK WITH NAM THE FASTEST AND GFS
FARTHEST NORTHWEST. ECMWF SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE. MODEL CONSENSUS
BRINGS STRONGEST ONSHORE WINDS BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z...CLOSE TO LOW
TIDE. IF THIS TIMING HOLDS UP WORST CASE SCENARIO WOULD BE MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING.

THE FIRST TIDE CYCLE OF CONCERN IS THE MONDAY MID MORNING. HOWEVER
ALL WAVE GUID SUGGEST SEAS LESS THAN 10 FT AT HIGH TIDE GIVEN
ARRIVAL OF STRONGEST WINDS LATER DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS ALSO
YIELDS SURGE VALUES OF A FOOT OR LESS.

AS FOR THE MONDAY EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE...ASTRO TIDES ARE ABOUT A
1 FT LOWER. HOWEVER A STORM SURGE OF 1.5 TO 2.5 FT IS POSSIBLE.
ESTOFS AND ETSS ARE LOWER...SO I BLENDED THE TWO GUID SOURCES AND
ADDED 50 PERCENT TO COME UP WITH SURGE VALUES OF 1.5 TO 2.5 FT. IN
ADDITION...SEAS WILL LIKELY BUILD TO 15 TO 20 FT DURING THE EVENING
HIGH TIDE. ALL OF THESE FACTORS YIELD A MODERATE RISK OF MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING WITH A LOW RISK OF ISOLATED MODERATE FLOODING.

WHILE WINDS...SEAS AND STORM SURGE WILL BE LESS THAN THE PREVIOUS
COASTAL STORM THERE COULD STILL BE SOME MODEST IMPACT ESPECIALLY FOR
THOSE COMMUNITIES SUCH AS MARSHFIELD MA THAT WERE HIT HARD EARLIER
THIS WEEK WHERE COASTAL STRUCTURES SUCH AS SEAWALLS WERE DAMAGED.
GIVEN THE LOW TRACK IS CLOSE TO NANTUCKET THE GREATEST RISK OF
COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE FARTHER NORTHWARD FROM CAPE COD TO CAPE ANN
WITH PERHAPS THE HIGHEST RISK FROM HULL/COHASSET/SCITUATE/
MARSHFIELD/PLYMOUTH TO SANDWICH HARBOR.
/DUXBURY

GIVEN IT APPEARS MARGINAL FOR SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING AND STILL
48-60 HRS OUT IN TIME WILL HOLD OFF ON A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WITH EXTREMELY COLD AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW MONDAY
NIGHT...TEMPERATURES MAY FALL BACK CLOSE TO OR SURPASSING RECORD
LEVELS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AND THAT IS NOT TAKING INTO ACCOUNT
THE STRONG WINDS.

HERE ARE THE RECORD LOWS FOR TUESDAY 2/3...

BOSTON         -5 SET IN 1881
PROVIDENCE     -6 SET IN 1961
WORCESTER      -7 SET IN 1931, 1955 AND 1971
WINDSOR LOCKS  -3 SET IN 1955
BLUE HILL OBS  -7 SET IN 1955

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR MAZ020>024.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     MAZ002>019-026.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MAZ022>024.
RI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR RIZ005>008.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     RIZ001>004.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ231>235-237.
     HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR ANZ231>235-237-250-251-254>256.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ231-232-
     250-251-254-255.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ231-232-250-251-
     254>256.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ233>235-
     237.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ233>235-237.
     GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ230-236.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ236.
     GALE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ250-251-254>256.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/NOCERA/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...FRANK/DUNTEN/NOCERA
MARINE...FRANK/NOCERA/DUNTEN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NOCERA
CLIMATE...STAFF



000
FXUS61 KBOX 312115
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
415 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BLUSTERY AND VERY COLD CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW. A
MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT THE REGION VERY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY EVENING WITH HEAVY SNOW FOR MANY LOCATIONS. BITTERLY
COLD WIND CHILLS FOLLOW LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
MODERATING TEMPS WEDNESDAY THEN VERY COLD CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. A COASTAL STORM WILL PASS WELL SOUTH
OF NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE WEEK BUT WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

430 PM UPDATE...

FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. LOW
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVE TOWARDS THE
MARITIMES...ALLOWING FOR THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT TO CONTINUE.
LATEST OBS AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT WIND GUSTS WILL BEGIN TO
SLOWLY SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON...AND WITH MANY SITES BELOW ADV
CONDITIONS PLAN ON LETTING THE ADV GO EXCEPT FOR THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS.

TONIGHT...

DEEPENING LOW WILL MOVE WELL TOWARDS THE MARITIMES TONIGHT ALLOWING
FOR WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING INTO THE REGION. STILL A DESCENT PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVERNIGHT...ESP ACROSS THE EAST COAST SO ANTICIPATE WIND
GUSTS TO REMAIN UP. HOWEVER ACROSS THE CT VALLEY REGION WINDS LOOK
TO DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT SO EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP WELL INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND MAY BE CLOSE TO ZERO ESP AT ORE. HOWEVER WITH LIGHT
WINDS...WIND CHILL ADV ARE NOT NEEDED. BIGGEST ISSUE WITH THESE
COOLING TEMPS IS THE SKY COVER. AHEAD OF APPROACHING ARCTIC
FRONT...MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH.
THIS MAY LIMIT TEMPS...SO PLAYED THEM A TAD CONSERVATIVE.

TOMORROW...

850MB ARCTIC FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TOMORROW. HOWEVER
TEMPS WILL BE WARMER THAN TODAY AS 925 MB TEMPS JUMP FROM -13C TO
-8C. EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE MID 20S TO PERHAPS THE LOW 30S
ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN. MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY WHICH WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER.
OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE CALMER AND DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAJOR WINTER STORM VERY LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON EVENING
* HEAVY SNOWFALL EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE REGION
* BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY SNOWFALL AMTS NEAR SOUTH COAST - PTYPE ISSUES
* BITTERLY COLD AIR LATE MON NIGHT - WIND CHILLS 15 TO 25 BELOW ZERO

DETAILS...

A MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND VERY LATE SUN
NIGHT INTO MONDAY EVENING.  ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA WILL COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
THE RESULT WILL BE STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER RUNNING THE
ARCTIC DOME AT THE SURFACE.  THEN AS THE LOW DEEPENS...MUCH OF THE
REGION WILL SEE SNOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM.  BIGGEST
UNCERTAINTY IS HOW MUCH OF THE REGION TRANSITIONS TO A PERIOD OF
MIXED PTYPE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE EVENT...CUTTING DOWN ON
POSSIBLE SNOW ACCUMS.

1) TIMING AND UNCERTAINTY

SNOW WILL LIKELY ARRIVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST VERY LATE SUN
EVENING IN OUR WESTERN ZONES AND AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE REST OF
THE REGION.  EXTREMELY TIGHT MID LEVEL THERMAL PACKING WILL ALLOW
SNOW TO QUICKLY BECOME HEAVY.  SNOW WILL FALL HEAVY MONDAY MORNING
AT 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR AND SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT THE AM RUSH HOUR.

THINGS THEN BECOME MORE UNCERTAIN LATER IN THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.  THE GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN SURGING WARM MID LEVEL AIR
TO THE MA PIKE...RESULTING IN A CHANGE TO A PERIOD OF SLEET/FREEZING
RAIN AND EVEN PLAIN RAIN ALONG THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.
THE NAM/ECMWF/GGEM APPEAR THE COLDEST KEEPING MOST AREAS HEAVY
SNOW...EXCEPT FOR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.  THE UKMET APPEARS TO BE IN
BETWEEN THE OTHER SOLUTIONS.  GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WILL BLEND THE
MODELS.  RIGHT NOW WERE THINKING TRANSITION AREA MAY GET BRIEFLY
NEAR OR PERHAPS JUST NORTH OF THE THE TAUNTON TO PROVIDENCE
CORRIDOR...BEFORE COLLAPSING SOUTHEAST.

REGARDLESS HOW FAR NORTH THE TRANSITION LINE GETS...MOST AREAS WILL
CHANGE BACK TO SNOW MON EVENING.  GIVEN CLOSED MID LEVEL CENTERS AND
VERY COLD NORTHEAST FLOW...COULD BE SOME OCEAN ENHANCEMENT ACROSS
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND FOR A TIME BEFORE SNOW ENDS.  BULK OF SNOW
SHOULD WIND DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT ALTHOUGH THE GGEM IS A BIT SLOWER.

2) SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS AND HEADLINES

WE ARE PRETTY CONFIDENT IN A HEAVY SNOWFALL FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION...EXCEPT FOR AREAS NEAR THE SOUTH COAST WHERE PTYPE ISSUES
MAYBE MORE PROBLEMATIC.  8 TO 14 INCHES EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION.  HAVE UPGRADED ALL AREAS FROM PROVIDENCE TO TAUNTON
NORTHWARD TO WINTER STORM WARNING/S WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON CRITERIA
BEING MET.  AREAS SOUTHEAST OF THAT LINE...THERE IS SOME MORE
UNCERTAINTY ESP CAPE/ISLANDS.  IF A LOT OF MIXING OCCURS THESE AREAS
MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH WARNING CRITERIA...BUT ITS STILL CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON MODEL TRENDS.  THEREFORE...WE HAVE HELD THE
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTH COAST AND THE ISLANDS.

3) STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW

NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 50 MPH EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS STORM INTENSIFIES AND PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES.  THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN POOR VISIBILITY ALONG WITH
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.  ITS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW LOCATIONS ALONG
THE COAST COULD SEE NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FOR A VERY SHORT
TIME...BUT STORM DOESN/T SEEM TO WARRANT THOSE TYPE OF HEADLINES.

4) BITTERLY COLD AIR MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

TEMPS WILL LIKELY PLUNGE BELOW ZERO TO 5 ABOVE ZERO IN MANY
LOCATIONS BY EARLY TUE MORNING.  THIS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS
VALUES BETWEEN 15 AND 25 BELOW ZERO. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* COLD PATTERN CONTINUES THRU NEXT WEEKEND
* CLIPPER LOW APPEARING MORE LIKELY THAN COASTAL LOW WED/THU

GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG 12Z DETERMINISTIC...12Z GEFS AND 00Z ECENS
ENSEMBLES THAT THE POLAR JET WILL DOMINATE THE NORTHERN TIER STATES
INCLUDING NEW ENGLAND THIS PERIOD. THIS COMBINED WITH STREAMS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNPHASED WILL SUPPORT MAINLY DRY WEATHER THIS
PERIOD. ONE CAVEAT WILL BE CLIPPER LOW ENTERING THE NORTHEAST
WED/WED NIGHT. EARLIER MODEL RUNS SUGGESTED SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT SOUTHWEST OF NEW ENGLAND...WITH
POSSIBLE COASTAL-OCEAN STORM IMPACTING OUR REGION AROUND THU.
HOWEVER LATEST GUID INCLUDING ENSEMBLES SUGGEST MID LEVEL TROUGH
WILL LACK SUFFICIENT AMPLITUDE TO BACK THE FLOW FOR A SECONDARY LOW
TO IMPACT THE REGION. THEREFORE LEANING TOWARD A MORE OFFSHORE TRACK
AND JUST A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE WED/WED NIGHT. HOWEVER AT
THIS TIME RANGE CAN/T BE TOO DETERMINISTIC. THUS WON`T TOTALLY
DISCOUNT CLOSER SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT.

AS FOR TEMPS...BITTERLY COLD TUE BEHIND DEPARTING MON NGT COASTAL
LOW. THEN COLD EASES WED AHEAD OF APPROACHING CLIPPER LOW FOLLOWED
BUT YET ANOTHER ARCTIC BLAST LATE IN THE WEEK BEHIND THE CLIPPER. AS
FOR INTO NEXT WEEKEND ENSEMBLE TRENDS SUGGEST TEMPS COLDER THAN
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM.../THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

BEFORE 00Z...VFR WITH NW GUSTS TO 30-40 KT DIMINISHING AFTER
SUNSET.

AFTER 00Z...VFR WITH GRADUAL DIMINISHING WIND.

SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR...BUT LOW PROB FOR AREAS OF MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.  VFR SUNDAY EVENING DETERIORATES TO IFR-LIFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW BY DAYBREAK MON AND CONTINUES
AT TIMES INTO MONDAY EVENING.  PTYPE MAY TRANSITION TO A PERIOD OF
SLEET/FREEZING RAIN/RAIN NEAR AND SOUTHEAST OF A PROVIDENCE TO
TAUNTON LINE.  NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 45 KNOTS EXPECTED ALONG
THE COAST.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR ON
TUESDAY. COULD SEE SOME MVFR CIGS IN SCT SNOW SHOWERS ON
WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW RISK OF MVFR
ALONG SOUTHEAST MASS DEPENDING ON TRACK OF CLIPPER LOW.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...STRONG LOW PRESSURE PULLS FARTHER AWAY WITH WINDS
DIMINISHING BELOW GALE AFTER 06Z...BUT GUSTS 25-30 KT WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY LIKELY
CONTINUING...ESPECIALLY E MA COASTAL WATERS.

SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGHOUT THE DAY BUT EXPECT SCA
WAVES TO REMAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY WILL
PERSIST.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

***STRONG GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS/HIGH SEAS AND THE RISK OF HEAVY
  FREEZING SPRAY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT***

WINDS/SEAS QUICKLY RAMP UP VERY LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON AS LOW
PRESSURE INTENSIFIES NEAR THE SOUTH COAST. GALE WATCHES ISSUED FOR
EXPECTED 40+ KNOT NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS BY MON MORNING ALONG WITH
SEAS BUILDING TO 15+ FEET ACROSS OUR EASTERN WATERS BY LATE MON
AFTERNOON/EVENING. IN ADDITION...BITTERLY COLD AIR MOVING OVER THE
WATERS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. HAVE ALSO ISSUED A FREEZING SPRAY WATCH.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE TO HIGH FORECAST
CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY...NW GALES LIKELY ALONG WITH FREEZING SPRAY...POSSIBLY
MODERATE TO HEAVY. MAINLY DRY WITH GOOD VSBY EXCEPT FAR OFFSHORE
WHERE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE COMMON.

WED...WINDS EASE AND BECOME SOUTHWEST AS CLIPPER LOW ENTERS THE
GREAT LAKES AND NY STATE. NOT AS COLD SO FREEZING SPRAY UNLIKELY.
VSBY MAY BRIEFLY LOWER IN A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW.

THU...ARCTIC FRONT WITH NW GALES BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE. MODERATE TO
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY POSSIBLE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

*** MINOR TO PERHAPS ISOLATED AREAS OF MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING
  POSSIBLE MON/MON NIGHT EASTERN MA COASTLINE ***

GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON SURFACE LOW TRACKING SOMEWHERE BETWEEN
NANTUCKET AND THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK WITH NAM THE FASTEST AND GFS
FARTHEST NORTHWEST. ECMWF SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE. MODEL CONSENSUS
BRINGS STRONGEST ONSHORE WINDS BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z...CLOSE TO LOW
TIDE. IF THIS TIMING HOLDS UP WORST CASE SCENARIO WOULD BE MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING.

THE FIRST TIDE CYCLE OF CONCERN IS THE MONDAY MID MORNING. HOWEVER
ALL WAVE GUID SUGGEST SEAS LESS THAN 10 FT AT HIGH TIDE GIVEN
ARRIVAL OF STRONGEST WINDS LATER DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS ALSO
YIELDS SURGE VALUES OF A FOOT OR LESS.

AS FOR THE MONDAY EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE...ASTRO TIDES ARE ABOUT A
1 FT LOWER. HOWEVER A STORM SURGE OF 1.5 TO 2.5 FT IS POSSIBLE.
ESTOFS AND ETSS ARE LOWER...SO I BLENDED THE TWO GUID SOURCES AND
ADDED 50 PERCENT TO COME UP WITH SURGE VALUES OF 1.5 TO 2.5 FT. IN
ADDITION...SEAS WILL LIKELY BUILD TO 15 TO 20 FT DURING THE EVENING
HIGH TIDE. ALL OF THESE FACTORS YIELD A MODERATE RISK OF MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING WITH A LOW RISK OF ISOLATED MODERATE FLOODING.

WHILE WINDS...SEAS AND STORM SURGE WILL BE LESS THAN THE PREVIOUS
COASTAL STORM THERE COULD STILL BE SOME MODEST IMPACT ESPECIALLY FOR
THOSE COMMUNITIES SUCH AS MARSHFIELD MA THAT WERE HIT HARD EARLIER
THIS WEEK WHERE COASTAL STRUCTURES SUCH AS SEAWALLS WERE DAMAGED.
GIVEN THE LOW TRACK IS CLOSE TO NANTUCKET THE GREATEST RISK OF
COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE FARTHER NORTHWARD FROM CAPE COD TO CAPE ANN
WITH PERHAPS THE HIGHEST RISK FROM HULL/COHASSET/SCITUATE/
MARSHFIELD/PLYMOUTH TO SANDWICH HARBOR.
/DUXBURY

GIVEN IT APPEARS MARGINAL FOR SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING AND STILL
48-60 HRS OUT IN TIME WILL HOLD OFF ON A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WITH EXTREMELY COLD AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW MONDAY
NIGHT...TEMPERATURES MAY FALL BACK CLOSE TO OR SURPASSING RECORD
LEVELS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AND THAT IS NOT TAKING INTO ACCOUNT
THE STRONG WINDS.

HERE ARE THE RECORD LOWS FOR TUESDAY 2/3...

BOSTON         -5 SET IN 1881
PROVIDENCE     -6 SET IN 1961
WORCESTER      -7 SET IN 1931, 1955 AND 1971
WINDSOR LOCKS  -3 SET IN 1955
BLUE HILL OBS  -7 SET IN 1955

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR MAZ020>024.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     MAZ002>019-026.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MAZ022>024.
RI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR RIZ005>008.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     RIZ001>004.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ231>235-237.
     HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR ANZ231>235-237-250-251-254>256.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ231-232-
     250-251-254-255.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ231-232-250-251-
     254>256.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ233>235-
     237.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ233>235-237.
     GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ230-236.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ236.
     GALE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ250-251-254>256.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/NOCERA/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...FRANK/DUNTEN/NOCERA
MARINE...FRANK/NOCERA/DUNTEN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NOCERA
CLIMATE...STAFF



000
FXUS61 KBOX 312115
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
415 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BLUSTERY AND VERY COLD CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW. A
MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT THE REGION VERY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY EVENING WITH HEAVY SNOW FOR MANY LOCATIONS. BITTERLY
COLD WIND CHILLS FOLLOW LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
MODERATING TEMPS WEDNESDAY THEN VERY COLD CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. A COASTAL STORM WILL PASS WELL SOUTH
OF NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE WEEK BUT WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

430 PM UPDATE...

FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. LOW
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVE TOWARDS THE
MARITIMES...ALLOWING FOR THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT TO CONTINUE.
LATEST OBS AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT WIND GUSTS WILL BEGIN TO
SLOWLY SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON...AND WITH MANY SITES BELOW ADV
CONDITIONS PLAN ON LETTING THE ADV GO EXCEPT FOR THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS.

TONIGHT...

DEEPENING LOW WILL MOVE WELL TOWARDS THE MARITIMES TONIGHT ALLOWING
FOR WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING INTO THE REGION. STILL A DESCENT PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVERNIGHT...ESP ACROSS THE EAST COAST SO ANTICIPATE WIND
GUSTS TO REMAIN UP. HOWEVER ACROSS THE CT VALLEY REGION WINDS LOOK
TO DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT SO EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP WELL INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND MAY BE CLOSE TO ZERO ESP AT ORE. HOWEVER WITH LIGHT
WINDS...WIND CHILL ADV ARE NOT NEEDED. BIGGEST ISSUE WITH THESE
COOLING TEMPS IS THE SKY COVER. AHEAD OF APPROACHING ARCTIC
FRONT...MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH.
THIS MAY LIMIT TEMPS...SO PLAYED THEM A TAD CONSERVATIVE.

TOMORROW...

850MB ARCTIC FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TOMORROW. HOWEVER
TEMPS WILL BE WARMER THAN TODAY AS 925 MB TEMPS JUMP FROM -13C TO
-8C. EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE MID 20S TO PERHAPS THE LOW 30S
ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN. MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY WHICH WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER.
OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE CALMER AND DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAJOR WINTER STORM VERY LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON EVENING
* HEAVY SNOWFALL EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE REGION
* BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY SNOWFALL AMTS NEAR SOUTH COAST - PTYPE ISSUES
* BITTERLY COLD AIR LATE MON NIGHT - WIND CHILLS 15 TO 25 BELOW ZERO

DETAILS...

A MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND VERY LATE SUN
NIGHT INTO MONDAY EVENING.  ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA WILL COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
THE RESULT WILL BE STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER RUNNING THE
ARCTIC DOME AT THE SURFACE.  THEN AS THE LOW DEEPENS...MUCH OF THE
REGION WILL SEE SNOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM.  BIGGEST
UNCERTAINTY IS HOW MUCH OF THE REGION TRANSITIONS TO A PERIOD OF
MIXED PTYPE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE EVENT...CUTTING DOWN ON
POSSIBLE SNOW ACCUMS.

1) TIMING AND UNCERTAINTY

SNOW WILL LIKELY ARRIVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST VERY LATE SUN
EVENING IN OUR WESTERN ZONES AND AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE REST OF
THE REGION.  EXTREMELY TIGHT MID LEVEL THERMAL PACKING WILL ALLOW
SNOW TO QUICKLY BECOME HEAVY.  SNOW WILL FALL HEAVY MONDAY MORNING
AT 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR AND SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT THE AM RUSH HOUR.

THINGS THEN BECOME MORE UNCERTAIN LATER IN THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.  THE GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN SURGING WARM MID LEVEL AIR
TO THE MA PIKE...RESULTING IN A CHANGE TO A PERIOD OF SLEET/FREEZING
RAIN AND EVEN PLAIN RAIN ALONG THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.
THE NAM/ECMWF/GGEM APPEAR THE COLDEST KEEPING MOST AREAS HEAVY
SNOW...EXCEPT FOR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.  THE UKMET APPEARS TO BE IN
BETWEEN THE OTHER SOLUTIONS.  GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WILL BLEND THE
MODELS.  RIGHT NOW WERE THINKING TRANSITION AREA MAY GET BRIEFLY
NEAR OR PERHAPS JUST NORTH OF THE THE TAUNTON TO PROVIDENCE
CORRIDOR...BEFORE COLLAPSING SOUTHEAST.

REGARDLESS HOW FAR NORTH THE TRANSITION LINE GETS...MOST AREAS WILL
CHANGE BACK TO SNOW MON EVENING.  GIVEN CLOSED MID LEVEL CENTERS AND
VERY COLD NORTHEAST FLOW...COULD BE SOME OCEAN ENHANCEMENT ACROSS
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND FOR A TIME BEFORE SNOW ENDS.  BULK OF SNOW
SHOULD WIND DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT ALTHOUGH THE GGEM IS A BIT SLOWER.

2) SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS AND HEADLINES

WE ARE PRETTY CONFIDENT IN A HEAVY SNOWFALL FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION...EXCEPT FOR AREAS NEAR THE SOUTH COAST WHERE PTYPE ISSUES
MAYBE MORE PROBLEMATIC.  8 TO 14 INCHES EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION.  HAVE UPGRADED ALL AREAS FROM PROVIDENCE TO TAUNTON
NORTHWARD TO WINTER STORM WARNING/S WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON CRITERIA
BEING MET.  AREAS SOUTHEAST OF THAT LINE...THERE IS SOME MORE
UNCERTAINTY ESP CAPE/ISLANDS.  IF A LOT OF MIXING OCCURS THESE AREAS
MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH WARNING CRITERIA...BUT ITS STILL CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON MODEL TRENDS.  THEREFORE...WE HAVE HELD THE
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTH COAST AND THE ISLANDS.

3) STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW

NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 50 MPH EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS STORM INTENSIFIES AND PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES.  THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN POOR VISIBILITY ALONG WITH
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.  ITS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW LOCATIONS ALONG
THE COAST COULD SEE NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FOR A VERY SHORT
TIME...BUT STORM DOESN/T SEEM TO WARRANT THOSE TYPE OF HEADLINES.

4) BITTERLY COLD AIR MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

TEMPS WILL LIKELY PLUNGE BELOW ZERO TO 5 ABOVE ZERO IN MANY
LOCATIONS BY EARLY TUE MORNING.  THIS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS
VALUES BETWEEN 15 AND 25 BELOW ZERO. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* COLD PATTERN CONTINUES THRU NEXT WEEKEND
* CLIPPER LOW APPEARING MORE LIKELY THAN COASTAL LOW WED/THU

GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG 12Z DETERMINISTIC...12Z GEFS AND 00Z ECENS
ENSEMBLES THAT THE POLAR JET WILL DOMINATE THE NORTHERN TIER STATES
INCLUDING NEW ENGLAND THIS PERIOD. THIS COMBINED WITH STREAMS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNPHASED WILL SUPPORT MAINLY DRY WEATHER THIS
PERIOD. ONE CAVEAT WILL BE CLIPPER LOW ENTERING THE NORTHEAST
WED/WED NIGHT. EARLIER MODEL RUNS SUGGESTED SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT SOUTHWEST OF NEW ENGLAND...WITH
POSSIBLE COASTAL-OCEAN STORM IMPACTING OUR REGION AROUND THU.
HOWEVER LATEST GUID INCLUDING ENSEMBLES SUGGEST MID LEVEL TROUGH
WILL LACK SUFFICIENT AMPLITUDE TO BACK THE FLOW FOR A SECONDARY LOW
TO IMPACT THE REGION. THEREFORE LEANING TOWARD A MORE OFFSHORE TRACK
AND JUST A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE WED/WED NIGHT. HOWEVER AT
THIS TIME RANGE CAN/T BE TOO DETERMINISTIC. THUS WON`T TOTALLY
DISCOUNT CLOSER SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT.

AS FOR TEMPS...BITTERLY COLD TUE BEHIND DEPARTING MON NGT COASTAL
LOW. THEN COLD EASES WED AHEAD OF APPROACHING CLIPPER LOW FOLLOWED
BUT YET ANOTHER ARCTIC BLAST LATE IN THE WEEK BEHIND THE CLIPPER. AS
FOR INTO NEXT WEEKEND ENSEMBLE TRENDS SUGGEST TEMPS COLDER THAN
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM.../THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

BEFORE 00Z...VFR WITH NW GUSTS TO 30-40 KT DIMINISHING AFTER
SUNSET.

AFTER 00Z...VFR WITH GRADUAL DIMINISHING WIND.

SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR...BUT LOW PROB FOR AREAS OF MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.  VFR SUNDAY EVENING DETERIORATES TO IFR-LIFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW BY DAYBREAK MON AND CONTINUES
AT TIMES INTO MONDAY EVENING.  PTYPE MAY TRANSITION TO A PERIOD OF
SLEET/FREEZING RAIN/RAIN NEAR AND SOUTHEAST OF A PROVIDENCE TO
TAUNTON LINE.  NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 45 KNOTS EXPECTED ALONG
THE COAST.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR ON
TUESDAY. COULD SEE SOME MVFR CIGS IN SCT SNOW SHOWERS ON
WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW RISK OF MVFR
ALONG SOUTHEAST MASS DEPENDING ON TRACK OF CLIPPER LOW.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...STRONG LOW PRESSURE PULLS FARTHER AWAY WITH WINDS
DIMINISHING BELOW GALE AFTER 06Z...BUT GUSTS 25-30 KT WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY LIKELY
CONTINUING...ESPECIALLY E MA COASTAL WATERS.

SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGHOUT THE DAY BUT EXPECT SCA
WAVES TO REMAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY WILL
PERSIST.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

***STRONG GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS/HIGH SEAS AND THE RISK OF HEAVY
  FREEZING SPRAY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT***

WINDS/SEAS QUICKLY RAMP UP VERY LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON AS LOW
PRESSURE INTENSIFIES NEAR THE SOUTH COAST. GALE WATCHES ISSUED FOR
EXPECTED 40+ KNOT NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS BY MON MORNING ALONG WITH
SEAS BUILDING TO 15+ FEET ACROSS OUR EASTERN WATERS BY LATE MON
AFTERNOON/EVENING. IN ADDITION...BITTERLY COLD AIR MOVING OVER THE
WATERS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. HAVE ALSO ISSUED A FREEZING SPRAY WATCH.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE TO HIGH FORECAST
CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY...NW GALES LIKELY ALONG WITH FREEZING SPRAY...POSSIBLY
MODERATE TO HEAVY. MAINLY DRY WITH GOOD VSBY EXCEPT FAR OFFSHORE
WHERE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE COMMON.

WED...WINDS EASE AND BECOME SOUTHWEST AS CLIPPER LOW ENTERS THE
GREAT LAKES AND NY STATE. NOT AS COLD SO FREEZING SPRAY UNLIKELY.
VSBY MAY BRIEFLY LOWER IN A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW.

THU...ARCTIC FRONT WITH NW GALES BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE. MODERATE TO
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY POSSIBLE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

*** MINOR TO PERHAPS ISOLATED AREAS OF MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING
  POSSIBLE MON/MON NIGHT EASTERN MA COASTLINE ***

GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON SURFACE LOW TRACKING SOMEWHERE BETWEEN
NANTUCKET AND THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK WITH NAM THE FASTEST AND GFS
FARTHEST NORTHWEST. ECMWF SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE. MODEL CONSENSUS
BRINGS STRONGEST ONSHORE WINDS BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z...CLOSE TO LOW
TIDE. IF THIS TIMING HOLDS UP WORST CASE SCENARIO WOULD BE MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING.

THE FIRST TIDE CYCLE OF CONCERN IS THE MONDAY MID MORNING. HOWEVER
ALL WAVE GUID SUGGEST SEAS LESS THAN 10 FT AT HIGH TIDE GIVEN
ARRIVAL OF STRONGEST WINDS LATER DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS ALSO
YIELDS SURGE VALUES OF A FOOT OR LESS.

AS FOR THE MONDAY EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE...ASTRO TIDES ARE ABOUT A
1 FT LOWER. HOWEVER A STORM SURGE OF 1.5 TO 2.5 FT IS POSSIBLE.
ESTOFS AND ETSS ARE LOWER...SO I BLENDED THE TWO GUID SOURCES AND
ADDED 50 PERCENT TO COME UP WITH SURGE VALUES OF 1.5 TO 2.5 FT. IN
ADDITION...SEAS WILL LIKELY BUILD TO 15 TO 20 FT DURING THE EVENING
HIGH TIDE. ALL OF THESE FACTORS YIELD A MODERATE RISK OF MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING WITH A LOW RISK OF ISOLATED MODERATE FLOODING.

WHILE WINDS...SEAS AND STORM SURGE WILL BE LESS THAN THE PREVIOUS
COASTAL STORM THERE COULD STILL BE SOME MODEST IMPACT ESPECIALLY FOR
THOSE COMMUNITIES SUCH AS MARSHFIELD MA THAT WERE HIT HARD EARLIER
THIS WEEK WHERE COASTAL STRUCTURES SUCH AS SEAWALLS WERE DAMAGED.
GIVEN THE LOW TRACK IS CLOSE TO NANTUCKET THE GREATEST RISK OF
COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE FARTHER NORTHWARD FROM CAPE COD TO CAPE ANN
WITH PERHAPS THE HIGHEST RISK FROM HULL/COHASSET/SCITUATE/
MARSHFIELD/PLYMOUTH TO SANDWICH HARBOR.
/DUXBURY

GIVEN IT APPEARS MARGINAL FOR SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING AND STILL
48-60 HRS OUT IN TIME WILL HOLD OFF ON A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WITH EXTREMELY COLD AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW MONDAY
NIGHT...TEMPERATURES MAY FALL BACK CLOSE TO OR SURPASSING RECORD
LEVELS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AND THAT IS NOT TAKING INTO ACCOUNT
THE STRONG WINDS.

HERE ARE THE RECORD LOWS FOR TUESDAY 2/3...

BOSTON         -5 SET IN 1881
PROVIDENCE     -6 SET IN 1961
WORCESTER      -7 SET IN 1931, 1955 AND 1971
WINDSOR LOCKS  -3 SET IN 1955
BLUE HILL OBS  -7 SET IN 1955

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR MAZ020>024.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     MAZ002>019-026.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MAZ022>024.
RI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR RIZ005>008.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     RIZ001>004.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ231>235-237.
     HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR ANZ231>235-237-250-251-254>256.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ231-232-
     250-251-254-255.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ231-232-250-251-
     254>256.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ233>235-
     237.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ233>235-237.
     GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ230-236.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ236.
     GALE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ250-251-254>256.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/NOCERA/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...FRANK/DUNTEN/NOCERA
MARINE...FRANK/NOCERA/DUNTEN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NOCERA
CLIMATE...STAFF



000
FXUS61 KBOX 312115
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
415 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BLUSTERY AND VERY COLD CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW. A
MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT THE REGION VERY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY EVENING WITH HEAVY SNOW FOR MANY LOCATIONS. BITTERLY
COLD WIND CHILLS FOLLOW LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
MODERATING TEMPS WEDNESDAY THEN VERY COLD CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. A COASTAL STORM WILL PASS WELL SOUTH
OF NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE WEEK BUT WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

430 PM UPDATE...

FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. LOW
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVE TOWARDS THE
MARITIMES...ALLOWING FOR THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT TO CONTINUE.
LATEST OBS AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT WIND GUSTS WILL BEGIN TO
SLOWLY SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON...AND WITH MANY SITES BELOW ADV
CONDITIONS PLAN ON LETTING THE ADV GO EXCEPT FOR THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS.

TONIGHT...

DEEPENING LOW WILL MOVE WELL TOWARDS THE MARITIMES TONIGHT ALLOWING
FOR WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING INTO THE REGION. STILL A DESCENT PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVERNIGHT...ESP ACROSS THE EAST COAST SO ANTICIPATE WIND
GUSTS TO REMAIN UP. HOWEVER ACROSS THE CT VALLEY REGION WINDS LOOK
TO DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT SO EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP WELL INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND MAY BE CLOSE TO ZERO ESP AT ORE. HOWEVER WITH LIGHT
WINDS...WIND CHILL ADV ARE NOT NEEDED. BIGGEST ISSUE WITH THESE
COOLING TEMPS IS THE SKY COVER. AHEAD OF APPROACHING ARCTIC
FRONT...MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH.
THIS MAY LIMIT TEMPS...SO PLAYED THEM A TAD CONSERVATIVE.

TOMORROW...

850MB ARCTIC FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TOMORROW. HOWEVER
TEMPS WILL BE WARMER THAN TODAY AS 925 MB TEMPS JUMP FROM -13C TO
-8C. EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE MID 20S TO PERHAPS THE LOW 30S
ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN. MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY WHICH WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER.
OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE CALMER AND DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAJOR WINTER STORM VERY LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON EVENING
* HEAVY SNOWFALL EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE REGION
* BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY SNOWFALL AMTS NEAR SOUTH COAST - PTYPE ISSUES
* BITTERLY COLD AIR LATE MON NIGHT - WIND CHILLS 15 TO 25 BELOW ZERO

DETAILS...

A MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND VERY LATE SUN
NIGHT INTO MONDAY EVENING.  ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA WILL COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
THE RESULT WILL BE STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER RUNNING THE
ARCTIC DOME AT THE SURFACE.  THEN AS THE LOW DEEPENS...MUCH OF THE
REGION WILL SEE SNOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM.  BIGGEST
UNCERTAINTY IS HOW MUCH OF THE REGION TRANSITIONS TO A PERIOD OF
MIXED PTYPE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE EVENT...CUTTING DOWN ON
POSSIBLE SNOW ACCUMS.

1) TIMING AND UNCERTAINTY

SNOW WILL LIKELY ARRIVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST VERY LATE SUN
EVENING IN OUR WESTERN ZONES AND AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE REST OF
THE REGION.  EXTREMELY TIGHT MID LEVEL THERMAL PACKING WILL ALLOW
SNOW TO QUICKLY BECOME HEAVY.  SNOW WILL FALL HEAVY MONDAY MORNING
AT 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR AND SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT THE AM RUSH HOUR.

THINGS THEN BECOME MORE UNCERTAIN LATER IN THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.  THE GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN SURGING WARM MID LEVEL AIR
TO THE MA PIKE...RESULTING IN A CHANGE TO A PERIOD OF SLEET/FREEZING
RAIN AND EVEN PLAIN RAIN ALONG THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.
THE NAM/ECMWF/GGEM APPEAR THE COLDEST KEEPING MOST AREAS HEAVY
SNOW...EXCEPT FOR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.  THE UKMET APPEARS TO BE IN
BETWEEN THE OTHER SOLUTIONS.  GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WILL BLEND THE
MODELS.  RIGHT NOW WERE THINKING TRANSITION AREA MAY GET BRIEFLY
NEAR OR PERHAPS JUST NORTH OF THE THE TAUNTON TO PROVIDENCE
CORRIDOR...BEFORE COLLAPSING SOUTHEAST.

REGARDLESS HOW FAR NORTH THE TRANSITION LINE GETS...MOST AREAS WILL
CHANGE BACK TO SNOW MON EVENING.  GIVEN CLOSED MID LEVEL CENTERS AND
VERY COLD NORTHEAST FLOW...COULD BE SOME OCEAN ENHANCEMENT ACROSS
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND FOR A TIME BEFORE SNOW ENDS.  BULK OF SNOW
SHOULD WIND DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT ALTHOUGH THE GGEM IS A BIT SLOWER.

2) SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS AND HEADLINES

WE ARE PRETTY CONFIDENT IN A HEAVY SNOWFALL FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION...EXCEPT FOR AREAS NEAR THE SOUTH COAST WHERE PTYPE ISSUES
MAYBE MORE PROBLEMATIC.  8 TO 14 INCHES EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION.  HAVE UPGRADED ALL AREAS FROM PROVIDENCE TO TAUNTON
NORTHWARD TO WINTER STORM WARNING/S WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON CRITERIA
BEING MET.  AREAS SOUTHEAST OF THAT LINE...THERE IS SOME MORE
UNCERTAINTY ESP CAPE/ISLANDS.  IF A LOT OF MIXING OCCURS THESE AREAS
MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH WARNING CRITERIA...BUT ITS STILL CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON MODEL TRENDS.  THEREFORE...WE HAVE HELD THE
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTH COAST AND THE ISLANDS.

3) STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW

NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 50 MPH EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS STORM INTENSIFIES AND PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES.  THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN POOR VISIBILITY ALONG WITH
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.  ITS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW LOCATIONS ALONG
THE COAST COULD SEE NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FOR A VERY SHORT
TIME...BUT STORM DOESN/T SEEM TO WARRANT THOSE TYPE OF HEADLINES.

4) BITTERLY COLD AIR MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

TEMPS WILL LIKELY PLUNGE BELOW ZERO TO 5 ABOVE ZERO IN MANY
LOCATIONS BY EARLY TUE MORNING.  THIS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS
VALUES BETWEEN 15 AND 25 BELOW ZERO. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* COLD PATTERN CONTINUES THRU NEXT WEEKEND
* CLIPPER LOW APPEARING MORE LIKELY THAN COASTAL LOW WED/THU

GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG 12Z DETERMINISTIC...12Z GEFS AND 00Z ECENS
ENSEMBLES THAT THE POLAR JET WILL DOMINATE THE NORTHERN TIER STATES
INCLUDING NEW ENGLAND THIS PERIOD. THIS COMBINED WITH STREAMS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNPHASED WILL SUPPORT MAINLY DRY WEATHER THIS
PERIOD. ONE CAVEAT WILL BE CLIPPER LOW ENTERING THE NORTHEAST
WED/WED NIGHT. EARLIER MODEL RUNS SUGGESTED SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT SOUTHWEST OF NEW ENGLAND...WITH
POSSIBLE COASTAL-OCEAN STORM IMPACTING OUR REGION AROUND THU.
HOWEVER LATEST GUID INCLUDING ENSEMBLES SUGGEST MID LEVEL TROUGH
WILL LACK SUFFICIENT AMPLITUDE TO BACK THE FLOW FOR A SECONDARY LOW
TO IMPACT THE REGION. THEREFORE LEANING TOWARD A MORE OFFSHORE TRACK
AND JUST A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE WED/WED NIGHT. HOWEVER AT
THIS TIME RANGE CAN/T BE TOO DETERMINISTIC. THUS WON`T TOTALLY
DISCOUNT CLOSER SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT.

AS FOR TEMPS...BITTERLY COLD TUE BEHIND DEPARTING MON NGT COASTAL
LOW. THEN COLD EASES WED AHEAD OF APPROACHING CLIPPER LOW FOLLOWED
BUT YET ANOTHER ARCTIC BLAST LATE IN THE WEEK BEHIND THE CLIPPER. AS
FOR INTO NEXT WEEKEND ENSEMBLE TRENDS SUGGEST TEMPS COLDER THAN
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM.../THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

BEFORE 00Z...VFR WITH NW GUSTS TO 30-40 KT DIMINISHING AFTER
SUNSET.

AFTER 00Z...VFR WITH GRADUAL DIMINISHING WIND.

SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR...BUT LOW PROB FOR AREAS OF MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.  VFR SUNDAY EVENING DETERIORATES TO IFR-LIFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW BY DAYBREAK MON AND CONTINUES
AT TIMES INTO MONDAY EVENING.  PTYPE MAY TRANSITION TO A PERIOD OF
SLEET/FREEZING RAIN/RAIN NEAR AND SOUTHEAST OF A PROVIDENCE TO
TAUNTON LINE.  NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 45 KNOTS EXPECTED ALONG
THE COAST.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR ON
TUESDAY. COULD SEE SOME MVFR CIGS IN SCT SNOW SHOWERS ON
WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW RISK OF MVFR
ALONG SOUTHEAST MASS DEPENDING ON TRACK OF CLIPPER LOW.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...STRONG LOW PRESSURE PULLS FARTHER AWAY WITH WINDS
DIMINISHING BELOW GALE AFTER 06Z...BUT GUSTS 25-30 KT WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY LIKELY
CONTINUING...ESPECIALLY E MA COASTAL WATERS.

SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGHOUT THE DAY BUT EXPECT SCA
WAVES TO REMAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY WILL
PERSIST.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

***STRONG GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS/HIGH SEAS AND THE RISK OF HEAVY
  FREEZING SPRAY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT***

WINDS/SEAS QUICKLY RAMP UP VERY LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON AS LOW
PRESSURE INTENSIFIES NEAR THE SOUTH COAST. GALE WATCHES ISSUED FOR
EXPECTED 40+ KNOT NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS BY MON MORNING ALONG WITH
SEAS BUILDING TO 15+ FEET ACROSS OUR EASTERN WATERS BY LATE MON
AFTERNOON/EVENING. IN ADDITION...BITTERLY COLD AIR MOVING OVER THE
WATERS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. HAVE ALSO ISSUED A FREEZING SPRAY WATCH.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE TO HIGH FORECAST
CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY...NW GALES LIKELY ALONG WITH FREEZING SPRAY...POSSIBLY
MODERATE TO HEAVY. MAINLY DRY WITH GOOD VSBY EXCEPT FAR OFFSHORE
WHERE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE COMMON.

WED...WINDS EASE AND BECOME SOUTHWEST AS CLIPPER LOW ENTERS THE
GREAT LAKES AND NY STATE. NOT AS COLD SO FREEZING SPRAY UNLIKELY.
VSBY MAY BRIEFLY LOWER IN A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW.

THU...ARCTIC FRONT WITH NW GALES BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE. MODERATE TO
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY POSSIBLE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

*** MINOR TO PERHAPS ISOLATED AREAS OF MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING
  POSSIBLE MON/MON NIGHT EASTERN MA COASTLINE ***

GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON SURFACE LOW TRACKING SOMEWHERE BETWEEN
NANTUCKET AND THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK WITH NAM THE FASTEST AND GFS
FARTHEST NORTHWEST. ECMWF SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE. MODEL CONSENSUS
BRINGS STRONGEST ONSHORE WINDS BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z...CLOSE TO LOW
TIDE. IF THIS TIMING HOLDS UP WORST CASE SCENARIO WOULD BE MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING.

THE FIRST TIDE CYCLE OF CONCERN IS THE MONDAY MID MORNING. HOWEVER
ALL WAVE GUID SUGGEST SEAS LESS THAN 10 FT AT HIGH TIDE GIVEN
ARRIVAL OF STRONGEST WINDS LATER DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS ALSO
YIELDS SURGE VALUES OF A FOOT OR LESS.

AS FOR THE MONDAY EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE...ASTRO TIDES ARE ABOUT A
1 FT LOWER. HOWEVER A STORM SURGE OF 1.5 TO 2.5 FT IS POSSIBLE.
ESTOFS AND ETSS ARE LOWER...SO I BLENDED THE TWO GUID SOURCES AND
ADDED 50 PERCENT TO COME UP WITH SURGE VALUES OF 1.5 TO 2.5 FT. IN
ADDITION...SEAS WILL LIKELY BUILD TO 15 TO 20 FT DURING THE EVENING
HIGH TIDE. ALL OF THESE FACTORS YIELD A MODERATE RISK OF MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING WITH A LOW RISK OF ISOLATED MODERATE FLOODING.

WHILE WINDS...SEAS AND STORM SURGE WILL BE LESS THAN THE PREVIOUS
COASTAL STORM THERE COULD STILL BE SOME MODEST IMPACT ESPECIALLY FOR
THOSE COMMUNITIES SUCH AS MARSHFIELD MA THAT WERE HIT HARD EARLIER
THIS WEEK WHERE COASTAL STRUCTURES SUCH AS SEAWALLS WERE DAMAGED.
GIVEN THE LOW TRACK IS CLOSE TO NANTUCKET THE GREATEST RISK OF
COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE FARTHER NORTHWARD FROM CAPE COD TO CAPE ANN
WITH PERHAPS THE HIGHEST RISK FROM HULL/COHASSET/SCITUATE/
MARSHFIELD/PLYMOUTH TO SANDWICH HARBOR.
/DUXBURY

GIVEN IT APPEARS MARGINAL FOR SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING AND STILL
48-60 HRS OUT IN TIME WILL HOLD OFF ON A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WITH EXTREMELY COLD AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW MONDAY
NIGHT...TEMPERATURES MAY FALL BACK CLOSE TO OR SURPASSING RECORD
LEVELS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AND THAT IS NOT TAKING INTO ACCOUNT
THE STRONG WINDS.

HERE ARE THE RECORD LOWS FOR TUESDAY 2/3...

BOSTON         -5 SET IN 1881
PROVIDENCE     -6 SET IN 1961
WORCESTER      -7 SET IN 1931, 1955 AND 1971
WINDSOR LOCKS  -3 SET IN 1955
BLUE HILL OBS  -7 SET IN 1955

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR MAZ020>024.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     MAZ002>019-026.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MAZ022>024.
RI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR RIZ005>008.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     RIZ001>004.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ231>235-237.
     HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR ANZ231>235-237-250-251-254>256.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ231-232-
     250-251-254-255.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ231-232-250-251-
     254>256.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ233>235-
     237.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ233>235-237.
     GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ230-236.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ236.
     GALE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ250-251-254>256.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/NOCERA/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...FRANK/DUNTEN/NOCERA
MARINE...FRANK/NOCERA/DUNTEN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NOCERA
CLIMATE...STAFF



000
FXUS61 KOKX 311758
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1258 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY. LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND PASSES SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND MONDAY. THE LOW TRACKS WELL TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS PLACE. THE HIGH MOVES ACROSS TUESDAY
AND OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS MIDWEEK WITH
ANOTHER LOW PASSING WELL OFFSHORE LATE IN THE WEEK. BY THAT TIME
FRAME...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED WEST OF THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLEAR SKIES...GUSTY WINDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TODAY.

WIND AND WINDCHILL ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN CANCELLED/EXPIRED BASED
ON SUBSIDING BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPS
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF
35 TO 40 MPH EXPECTED INTO THE AFTERNOON. LOCALIZED GUSTS TO
AROUND 45 MPH POSSIBLE THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY. SUBZERO WINDCHILLS
THIS MORNING RISING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO FOR MOST OF
THE REGION.

AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE THROUGH THE TEENS
TODAY...APPROACHING 20 DEGREES NEAR THE COAST. FOLLOWED A MAV/MET
BLEND WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY HOURLY GFS LAMP NUMBERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTH. WINDS TURN TOWARD THE WEST AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...AND LIGHTEN. TEMPS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS COLD WITH LOWS IN
THE TEENS AND 20S. IN FACT...READINGS WILL NOT FALL MUCH AS THE
NIGHT PROGRESSES DUE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION.

ON SUNDAY...HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE AS TEMPS RISE THROUGH THE
20S...INTO THE 30S. STAYED CLOSE TO A MET/MAV MOS BLEND. A FEW
SNOW FLAKES MAY BE OBSERVED OVER NJ AND WESTERN ZONES VERY LATE IN
THE DAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
RIDING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DO NOT SEE A BIG SHIFT IN THE MODELS THIS RUN...AND GENERAL
AGREEMENT IS NOTED. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH MONDAY.
ANALYSIS OF LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS SUGGESTS SNOW SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH A WINTRY MIX FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT A MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN
FOR A PORTION OF THE AREA. THE EAST END OF LONG ISLAND COULD SEE A
CHANGEOVER TO PLAIN RAIN FOR A TIME.

OVERALL...EXPECT 6 TO 8 INCHES NEAR THE COAST...AND 8 TO 12
INLAND. SOME LIGHT ICING IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST AS WELL. FOR
LONG ISLAND AND NYC...THESE ACCUMULATIONS ARE A TOTAL. THE ACTUAL
AMOUNTS COULD BE LOWER DUE TO RAIN/FREEZING RAIN CHANGEOVER.

FOR THE COAST...SNOW TO BRIEF PD OF RAIN/FZRA AND IP...BEFORE
CHANGING BACK TO SNOW MONDAY AFTN.

INTERIOR...MAINLY SNOW WITH A PERIOD OF SLEET MIXED IN MONDAY MORNING.

TIMING FOR HEAVIEST PRECIP WOULD BE MIDNIGHT THROUGH ABOUT NOON OR
SO MONDAY.

AFTER COLLAB WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS
BEEN POSTED. START TIME 00Z MONDAY THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY. THIS CAN
BE FINE TUNED AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT.

OF COURSE ANY SHIFT IN TRACK NORTH OR SOUTH WILL MAKE A BIG
DIFFERENCE AS OUR AREA WILL BE DEALING WITH THE RAIN/SNOW
LINE...WHICH IS ALWAYS DIFFICULT TO FORECAST.

TEMPS ARE A NAM 2M BLEND WITH GRIDDED MOS. HAND EDITS WERE NEEDED
AS WELL. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE TEENS INLAND TO THE
MID AND UPPER 20S NEAR THE COAST.

ON MONDAY...MID 30S POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST...ERN LI...AND AROUND
20 WELL INLAND. TEMPS DROP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE STORM
PASSES TO THE SE AS COLD AIR RUSHES IN.

AFTER THIS SYSTEM...MONDAY NIGHT UNTIL MIDWEEK...WE WILL BE IN A
QUASI-ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW. A WEAK LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS TUESDAY WITH A LARGER MORE AMPLIFIED SHORTWAVE MOVING
APPROACHING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT AT THE SURFACE APPROACHING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SNOW WITH THIS.

FOR LATE IN THE WEEK...A LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES FAR OFFSHORE...MORE
OFFSHORE WITH THE 12Z ECMWF RUN TODAY...BUT DID NOT WANT TO TOTALLY
MAKE FOR A DRY FORECAST. LEFT IN A CHANCE OF MAINLY SNOW FOR
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THE MODELS HAVE CONVEYED MORE OF A
PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION AND LESS AMPLIFIED THAN BEFORE SO THE LOW IS
NOT THAT STRONG OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRESSURE COULD PROVE TO BE MORE
DOMINANT IN ALLOWING FOR A DRIER FORECAST.

FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES...BELOW NORMAL OVERALL...MAINLY IN 20S EXCEPT
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH LOW TO MID 30S. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO
BE TEENS TO LOWER 20S SUNDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FOR OTHER
PERIODS...LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST AS FOLLOWS...SINGLE DIGITS
TO A LITTLE BELOW ZERO MONDAY NIGHT...SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS
TUESDAY NIGHT...LOW TO MID TEENS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST.

WINDS AT OR FAVORING NORTH OF 310 MAG FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF
THE AFTERNOON. WINDS COULD START FAVORING SOUTH OF 310 MAG AS EARLY
AS AROUND 21-23Z. WINDS MOSTLY WEST TONIGHT. SUSTAINED WINDS AND
GUSTS GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS AFTN. FREQUENT GUSTS END BY MIDNIGHT.

VFR FOR MOST OF SUNDAY. A LIGHT SNOW SHOWER POSSIBLE TOWARDS DARK.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SUNDAY PM...VFR.
.SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...HIGH IMPACT PERIOD. IFR AND SNOW LIKELY. GOOD
CHANCE OF MIXED PCPN MON MORNING AND EARLY AFTN FOR CITY TERMINALS
AND KISP. E-NE G 25-30KT MON AM BCMG N LATE.
.MONDAY NIGHT...BECOMING VFR AS SNOW COMES TO AN END. N-NW G 30KT.
.TUE...VFR.
.WED...VFR LIKELY. CHC SW G 20KT.
.THU...VFR NW G 20KT.

&&

.MARINE...
NW GALES OF TO 45 KT ON THE OCEAN WATERS AND UP TO 40 KT ON ALL
OTHER WATERS THIS MORNING...WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF ROUGH SEAS...STRONG WINDS...AND
COLD WATER TEMPS WILL ALSO RESULT IN AT LEAST MODERATE FREEZING
SPRAY TODAY.

GUSTY WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING...THOUGH A FEW 35 KT GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE ON THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WIND
GUSTS LIKELY ON THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS WILL ALSO
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 5 FT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

TRANQUIL CONDS ON THE WATERS AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVERHEAD AND
DEPARTS. ANOTHER LOW APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. CONDS RAMP
UP TO AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS MONDAY AND GALES ARE
LIKELY ON ALL WATERS FOR A PERIOD MONDAY NIGHT.

THESE CONDITIONS GRADUALLY TAPER DOWN EARLY TUESDAY. THE RELATIVELY
MORE QUIET PERIOD LOOKS TO BE LATE TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE COULD BE SOME MARGINAL SCA SEAS ON THE
OUTER OCEAN TUESDAY OF AROUND 5 FT. SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ONCE
AGAIN WITH THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT TOWARDS MIDWEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GENERALLY AROUND 0.8 TO 1.2 INCHES OF LIQUID FORECAST WITH THE
SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. A SNOW AND WINTRY MIX EVENT IS
FORECAST. NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-
     335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-335-338-
     340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PW
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...JM/PW
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...MPS
HYDROLOGY...PW







000
FXUS61 KOKX 311758
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1258 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY. LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND PASSES SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND MONDAY. THE LOW TRACKS WELL TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS PLACE. THE HIGH MOVES ACROSS TUESDAY
AND OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS MIDWEEK WITH
ANOTHER LOW PASSING WELL OFFSHORE LATE IN THE WEEK. BY THAT TIME
FRAME...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED WEST OF THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLEAR SKIES...GUSTY WINDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TODAY.

WIND AND WINDCHILL ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN CANCELLED/EXPIRED BASED
ON SUBSIDING BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPS
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF
35 TO 40 MPH EXPECTED INTO THE AFTERNOON. LOCALIZED GUSTS TO
AROUND 45 MPH POSSIBLE THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY. SUBZERO WINDCHILLS
THIS MORNING RISING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO FOR MOST OF
THE REGION.

AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE THROUGH THE TEENS
TODAY...APPROACHING 20 DEGREES NEAR THE COAST. FOLLOWED A MAV/MET
BLEND WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY HOURLY GFS LAMP NUMBERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTH. WINDS TURN TOWARD THE WEST AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...AND LIGHTEN. TEMPS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS COLD WITH LOWS IN
THE TEENS AND 20S. IN FACT...READINGS WILL NOT FALL MUCH AS THE
NIGHT PROGRESSES DUE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION.

ON SUNDAY...HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE AS TEMPS RISE THROUGH THE
20S...INTO THE 30S. STAYED CLOSE TO A MET/MAV MOS BLEND. A FEW
SNOW FLAKES MAY BE OBSERVED OVER NJ AND WESTERN ZONES VERY LATE IN
THE DAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
RIDING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DO NOT SEE A BIG SHIFT IN THE MODELS THIS RUN...AND GENERAL
AGREEMENT IS NOTED. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH MONDAY.
ANALYSIS OF LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS SUGGESTS SNOW SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH A WINTRY MIX FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT A MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN
FOR A PORTION OF THE AREA. THE EAST END OF LONG ISLAND COULD SEE A
CHANGEOVER TO PLAIN RAIN FOR A TIME.

OVERALL...EXPECT 6 TO 8 INCHES NEAR THE COAST...AND 8 TO 12
INLAND. SOME LIGHT ICING IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST AS WELL. FOR
LONG ISLAND AND NYC...THESE ACCUMULATIONS ARE A TOTAL. THE ACTUAL
AMOUNTS COULD BE LOWER DUE TO RAIN/FREEZING RAIN CHANGEOVER.

FOR THE COAST...SNOW TO BRIEF PD OF RAIN/FZRA AND IP...BEFORE
CHANGING BACK TO SNOW MONDAY AFTN.

INTERIOR...MAINLY SNOW WITH A PERIOD OF SLEET MIXED IN MONDAY MORNING.

TIMING FOR HEAVIEST PRECIP WOULD BE MIDNIGHT THROUGH ABOUT NOON OR
SO MONDAY.

AFTER COLLAB WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS
BEEN POSTED. START TIME 00Z MONDAY THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY. THIS CAN
BE FINE TUNED AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT.

OF COURSE ANY SHIFT IN TRACK NORTH OR SOUTH WILL MAKE A BIG
DIFFERENCE AS OUR AREA WILL BE DEALING WITH THE RAIN/SNOW
LINE...WHICH IS ALWAYS DIFFICULT TO FORECAST.

TEMPS ARE A NAM 2M BLEND WITH GRIDDED MOS. HAND EDITS WERE NEEDED
AS WELL. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE TEENS INLAND TO THE
MID AND UPPER 20S NEAR THE COAST.

ON MONDAY...MID 30S POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST...ERN LI...AND AROUND
20 WELL INLAND. TEMPS DROP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE STORM
PASSES TO THE SE AS COLD AIR RUSHES IN.

AFTER THIS SYSTEM...MONDAY NIGHT UNTIL MIDWEEK...WE WILL BE IN A
QUASI-ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW. A WEAK LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS TUESDAY WITH A LARGER MORE AMPLIFIED SHORTWAVE MOVING
APPROACHING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT AT THE SURFACE APPROACHING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SNOW WITH THIS.

FOR LATE IN THE WEEK...A LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES FAR OFFSHORE...MORE
OFFSHORE WITH THE 12Z ECMWF RUN TODAY...BUT DID NOT WANT TO TOTALLY
MAKE FOR A DRY FORECAST. LEFT IN A CHANCE OF MAINLY SNOW FOR
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THE MODELS HAVE CONVEYED MORE OF A
PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION AND LESS AMPLIFIED THAN BEFORE SO THE LOW IS
NOT THAT STRONG OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRESSURE COULD PROVE TO BE MORE
DOMINANT IN ALLOWING FOR A DRIER FORECAST.

FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES...BELOW NORMAL OVERALL...MAINLY IN 20S EXCEPT
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH LOW TO MID 30S. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO
BE TEENS TO LOWER 20S SUNDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FOR OTHER
PERIODS...LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST AS FOLLOWS...SINGLE DIGITS
TO A LITTLE BELOW ZERO MONDAY NIGHT...SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS
TUESDAY NIGHT...LOW TO MID TEENS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST.

WINDS AT OR FAVORING NORTH OF 310 MAG FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF
THE AFTERNOON. WINDS COULD START FAVORING SOUTH OF 310 MAG AS EARLY
AS AROUND 21-23Z. WINDS MOSTLY WEST TONIGHT. SUSTAINED WINDS AND
GUSTS GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS AFTN. FREQUENT GUSTS END BY MIDNIGHT.

VFR FOR MOST OF SUNDAY. A LIGHT SNOW SHOWER POSSIBLE TOWARDS DARK.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SUNDAY PM...VFR.
.SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...HIGH IMPACT PERIOD. IFR AND SNOW LIKELY. GOOD
CHANCE OF MIXED PCPN MON MORNING AND EARLY AFTN FOR CITY TERMINALS
AND KISP. E-NE G 25-30KT MON AM BCMG N LATE.
.MONDAY NIGHT...BECOMING VFR AS SNOW COMES TO AN END. N-NW G 30KT.
.TUE...VFR.
.WED...VFR LIKELY. CHC SW G 20KT.
.THU...VFR NW G 20KT.

&&

.MARINE...
NW GALES OF TO 45 KT ON THE OCEAN WATERS AND UP TO 40 KT ON ALL
OTHER WATERS THIS MORNING...WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF ROUGH SEAS...STRONG WINDS...AND
COLD WATER TEMPS WILL ALSO RESULT IN AT LEAST MODERATE FREEZING
SPRAY TODAY.

GUSTY WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING...THOUGH A FEW 35 KT GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE ON THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WIND
GUSTS LIKELY ON THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS WILL ALSO
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 5 FT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

TRANQUIL CONDS ON THE WATERS AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVERHEAD AND
DEPARTS. ANOTHER LOW APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. CONDS RAMP
UP TO AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS MONDAY AND GALES ARE
LIKELY ON ALL WATERS FOR A PERIOD MONDAY NIGHT.

THESE CONDITIONS GRADUALLY TAPER DOWN EARLY TUESDAY. THE RELATIVELY
MORE QUIET PERIOD LOOKS TO BE LATE TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE COULD BE SOME MARGINAL SCA SEAS ON THE
OUTER OCEAN TUESDAY OF AROUND 5 FT. SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ONCE
AGAIN WITH THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT TOWARDS MIDWEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GENERALLY AROUND 0.8 TO 1.2 INCHES OF LIQUID FORECAST WITH THE
SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. A SNOW AND WINTRY MIX EVENT IS
FORECAST. NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-
     335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-335-338-
     340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PW
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...JM/PW
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...MPS
HYDROLOGY...PW






000
FXUS61 KALY 311758
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1258 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRIGID AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE NORTHEAST TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE BRIEFLY IN CONTROL THIS AFTERNOON...THEN A CLIPPER
LOW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1257 PM EST...THE WIND CHILL HEADLINES HAVE BEEN ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE. STILL...A BITTERLY COLD DAY OUT THERE WITH W TO NW WINDS
10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH. WIND CHILLS 10 BELOW
TO 10 ABOVE WILL BE COMMON WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO
LOWER TEENS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...EXCEPT THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT WHERE SOME MID AND UPPER TEENS ARE POSSIBLE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BE IN CONTROL THIS AFTERNOON...
RIDGING IN FROM THE TN AND OH VALLEYS. SUNNY OR MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE DUE TO THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM THE
ANTICYCLONE. THE WINDS WILL ABATE IN THE MID TO LATE PM...AS A
WEAK CLIPPER APPROACHES.

STORM FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY LOOKS ON TRACK...AND A WINTER
STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR MOST OF THE FCST AREA EXCEPT FOR
HAMILTON...NRN WARREN...NRN WASHINGTON...AND NRN HERKIMER
COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WINTER STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY EVENING
THROUGH MONDAY FOR MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND EXCLUDING THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...

FOR TONIGHT...A FAST MOVING MOISTURE STARVED CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO RACE FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
YORK OVERNIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS TO
THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE FA WITH LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ELSEWHERE.
IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY COLD WITH LOWS RANGING FROM 5 BELOW
ZERO NORTHWEST TO THE 10 ABOVE ZERO SOUTHEAST.

ON SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRETCH ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND IN
THE WAKE OF THE CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WE ARE EXPECTING A DRY DAY.
ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM SO
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHER THAN
SATURDAY...BUT STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH READINGS FROM THE
LOWER TEENS NORTHWEST TO UPPER 20S SOUTHEAST.

ON SUNDAY NIGHT WE ARE EXPECTING SNOW TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE FA
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS AND A
WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR MUCH OF THE FA EXCLUDING
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. WE WILL BE DEALING WITH A PROGRESSIVE
TYPE SYSTEM AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS REMAINS NEUTRAL POSITIVELY
TILTED UNTIL THE SYSTEM IS WELL OFF THE COAST. THE SURFACE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM THE OHIO VALLEY LATE SUNDAY ACROSS THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND PASS SOUTHEAST OF LONG
ISLAND ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE GOOD OVERRUNNING AS
THERE IS PLENTY OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DECENT FRONTOGENESIS AT H7
BTWN 12Z AND 18Z ON MONDAY. IN THE WATCH AREA 7 INCHES OR MORE OF
SNOW IS POSSIBLE...HOWEVER AS WITH SO MANY STORMS THIS WINTER
THERE WILL BE A SHARP CUTOFF ON THE NORTHERN EDGE...THUS THE
REASON THAT THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS WERE LEFT OUT OF THE WATCH AT
THIS TIME. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 10 TO 15
BELOW ZERO NORTHWEST TO THE MID TEENS SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON MONDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTHWEST TO AROUND 20 SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD...

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...IN THE WAKE OF MONDAY/S STORM SYSTEM...THE
COMBINATION OF POTENTIALLY DEEP FRESH SNOW COVER...DECREASING
WIND...AND CLEARING SKIES SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO PLUMMET LATER AT
NIGHT WELL BELOW ZERO IN MOST AREAS...WITH MANY MIN TEMPS POSSIBLY
DIPPING INTO THE -10 TO -20 F RANGE BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY FOR AREAS
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AT THAT TIME...SO
WIND CHILL VALUES SHOULD BE CLOSE TO ACTUAL AIR TEMPS. AFTER THE
BRUTALLY COLD START...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH OCCASIONAL HIGH
CLOUDS PASSING THROUGH. MAX TEMPS ON TUE SHOULD EVENTUALLY REACH THE
LOWER/MID TEENS IN VALLEYS AND SINGLE DIGITS FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

TUE NT-THU...A CLIPPER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY DURING THIS PERIOD. SOME
WARM ADVECTION SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TUE NT INTO EARLY
WED...ESP ACROSS NW AREAS. THEN...ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE REGION LATE WED OR
EARLY THU...PRECEDED AND ACCOMPANIED BY SNOW SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SOME MINOR ACCUMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND
SOUTHERN VT. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE BY LATE
THU. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...BUT WILL MODERATE A BIT IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE INCOMING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH WED MAX
TEMPS POSSIBLY REACHING AROUND OR JUST OVER 30 IN VALLEYS...WITH
MAINLY MID/UPPER 20S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS TUE
NT/WED AM SHOULD FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN MOST AREAS...WITH
SOME SUBZERO MINS POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AND POSSIBLY ACROSS
THE LAKE GEORGE REGION. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT MIN TEMPS OCCUR EARLY
TUE EVE...THEN RISE LATER AT NIGHT AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
ALONG WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. WED NT/THU AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO
THE TEENS IN MOST VALLEYS...WITH SINGLE DIGITS CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. ON THU...MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE TEENS TO
LOWER 20S...BUT MAY FALL IN THE AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION STRENGTHENS.

THU NT-FRI...GENERALLY COLD AND DRY. MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL BELOW
ZERO IN MOST AREAS...AND WITH SOME LINGERING WIND...WIND CHILL
VALUES MAY REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA IN MANY AREAS...AND POSSIBLY
WARNING LEVELS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. FRI MAX
TEMPS SHOULD ONLY REACH THE LOWER/MID TEENS IN VALLEYS...AND SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY RIDGE IN THIS AFTERNOON...AS A CLIPPER
LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND SE ONTARIO
TONIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH BY SUNDAY MORNING...AND
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MOST OF THE NEXT 24 HRS FOR
KALB/KPSF/KGFL/KPOU. SOME CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTH AND
WEST BTWN 00Z-06Z. THE CIGS WILL LOWER TO 3-6 KFT AGL BTWN 06Z-
12Z. THE BEST CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS WILL BE AT KPSF. ONCE THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES E/SE AFTER 12Z/SUN...THE SKIES WILL GRADUALLY
BECOME PARTLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

W/NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 10-15 KT THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME
GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS AT KALB/KPSF. THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT FROM
THE N TO W AT LESS THAN 6 KTS OVERNIGHT. THE WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE W TO NW AT 5-10 KTS SUNDAY LATE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SN.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SN.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM LATE SUNDAY EVENING INTO
MONDAY WITH MODERATE TO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. ANY
CHANGE IN THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THE STORM WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT
ON THE SNOWFALL FORECAST.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES
AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ038>041-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11







000
FXUS61 KALY 311758
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1258 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRIGID AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE NORTHEAST TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE BRIEFLY IN CONTROL THIS AFTERNOON...THEN A CLIPPER
LOW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1257 PM EST...THE WIND CHILL HEADLINES HAVE BEEN ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE. STILL...A BITTERLY COLD DAY OUT THERE WITH W TO NW WINDS
10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH. WIND CHILLS 10 BELOW
TO 10 ABOVE WILL BE COMMON WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO
LOWER TEENS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...EXCEPT THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT WHERE SOME MID AND UPPER TEENS ARE POSSIBLE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BE IN CONTROL THIS AFTERNOON...
RIDGING IN FROM THE TN AND OH VALLEYS. SUNNY OR MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE DUE TO THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM THE
ANTICYCLONE. THE WINDS WILL ABATE IN THE MID TO LATE PM...AS A
WEAK CLIPPER APPROACHES.

STORM FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY LOOKS ON TRACK...AND A WINTER
STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR MOST OF THE FCST AREA EXCEPT FOR
HAMILTON...NRN WARREN...NRN WASHINGTON...AND NRN HERKIMER
COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WINTER STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY EVENING
THROUGH MONDAY FOR MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND EXCLUDING THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...

FOR TONIGHT...A FAST MOVING MOISTURE STARVED CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO RACE FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
YORK OVERNIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS TO
THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE FA WITH LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ELSEWHERE.
IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY COLD WITH LOWS RANGING FROM 5 BELOW
ZERO NORTHWEST TO THE 10 ABOVE ZERO SOUTHEAST.

ON SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRETCH ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND IN
THE WAKE OF THE CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WE ARE EXPECTING A DRY DAY.
ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM SO
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHER THAN
SATURDAY...BUT STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH READINGS FROM THE
LOWER TEENS NORTHWEST TO UPPER 20S SOUTHEAST.

ON SUNDAY NIGHT WE ARE EXPECTING SNOW TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE FA
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS AND A
WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR MUCH OF THE FA EXCLUDING
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. WE WILL BE DEALING WITH A PROGRESSIVE
TYPE SYSTEM AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS REMAINS NEUTRAL POSITIVELY
TILTED UNTIL THE SYSTEM IS WELL OFF THE COAST. THE SURFACE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM THE OHIO VALLEY LATE SUNDAY ACROSS THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND PASS SOUTHEAST OF LONG
ISLAND ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE GOOD OVERRUNNING AS
THERE IS PLENTY OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DECENT FRONTOGENESIS AT H7
BTWN 12Z AND 18Z ON MONDAY. IN THE WATCH AREA 7 INCHES OR MORE OF
SNOW IS POSSIBLE...HOWEVER AS WITH SO MANY STORMS THIS WINTER
THERE WILL BE A SHARP CUTOFF ON THE NORTHERN EDGE...THUS THE
REASON THAT THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS WERE LEFT OUT OF THE WATCH AT
THIS TIME. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 10 TO 15
BELOW ZERO NORTHWEST TO THE MID TEENS SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON MONDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTHWEST TO AROUND 20 SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD...

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...IN THE WAKE OF MONDAY/S STORM SYSTEM...THE
COMBINATION OF POTENTIALLY DEEP FRESH SNOW COVER...DECREASING
WIND...AND CLEARING SKIES SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO PLUMMET LATER AT
NIGHT WELL BELOW ZERO IN MOST AREAS...WITH MANY MIN TEMPS POSSIBLY
DIPPING INTO THE -10 TO -20 F RANGE BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY FOR AREAS
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AT THAT TIME...SO
WIND CHILL VALUES SHOULD BE CLOSE TO ACTUAL AIR TEMPS. AFTER THE
BRUTALLY COLD START...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH OCCASIONAL HIGH
CLOUDS PASSING THROUGH. MAX TEMPS ON TUE SHOULD EVENTUALLY REACH THE
LOWER/MID TEENS IN VALLEYS AND SINGLE DIGITS FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

TUE NT-THU...A CLIPPER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY DURING THIS PERIOD. SOME
WARM ADVECTION SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TUE NT INTO EARLY
WED...ESP ACROSS NW AREAS. THEN...ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE REGION LATE WED OR
EARLY THU...PRECEDED AND ACCOMPANIED BY SNOW SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SOME MINOR ACCUMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND
SOUTHERN VT. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE BY LATE
THU. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...BUT WILL MODERATE A BIT IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE INCOMING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH WED MAX
TEMPS POSSIBLY REACHING AROUND OR JUST OVER 30 IN VALLEYS...WITH
MAINLY MID/UPPER 20S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS TUE
NT/WED AM SHOULD FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN MOST AREAS...WITH
SOME SUBZERO MINS POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AND POSSIBLY ACROSS
THE LAKE GEORGE REGION. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT MIN TEMPS OCCUR EARLY
TUE EVE...THEN RISE LATER AT NIGHT AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
ALONG WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. WED NT/THU AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO
THE TEENS IN MOST VALLEYS...WITH SINGLE DIGITS CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. ON THU...MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE TEENS TO
LOWER 20S...BUT MAY FALL IN THE AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION STRENGTHENS.

THU NT-FRI...GENERALLY COLD AND DRY. MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL BELOW
ZERO IN MOST AREAS...AND WITH SOME LINGERING WIND...WIND CHILL
VALUES MAY REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA IN MANY AREAS...AND POSSIBLY
WARNING LEVELS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. FRI MAX
TEMPS SHOULD ONLY REACH THE LOWER/MID TEENS IN VALLEYS...AND SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY RIDGE IN THIS AFTERNOON...AS A CLIPPER
LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND SE ONTARIO
TONIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH BY SUNDAY MORNING...AND
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MOST OF THE NEXT 24 HRS FOR
KALB/KPSF/KGFL/KPOU. SOME CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTH AND
WEST BTWN 00Z-06Z. THE CIGS WILL LOWER TO 3-6 KFT AGL BTWN 06Z-
12Z. THE BEST CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS WILL BE AT KPSF. ONCE THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES E/SE AFTER 12Z/SUN...THE SKIES WILL GRADUALLY
BECOME PARTLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

W/NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 10-15 KT THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME
GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS AT KALB/KPSF. THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT FROM
THE N TO W AT LESS THAN 6 KTS OVERNIGHT. THE WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE W TO NW AT 5-10 KTS SUNDAY LATE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SN.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SN.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM LATE SUNDAY EVENING INTO
MONDAY WITH MODERATE TO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. ANY
CHANGE IN THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THE STORM WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT
ON THE SNOWFALL FORECAST.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES
AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ038>041-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11







000
FXUS61 KALY 311758
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1258 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRIGID AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE NORTHEAST TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE BRIEFLY IN CONTROL THIS AFTERNOON...THEN A CLIPPER
LOW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1257 PM EST...THE WIND CHILL HEADLINES HAVE BEEN ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE. STILL...A BITTERLY COLD DAY OUT THERE WITH W TO NW WINDS
10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH. WIND CHILLS 10 BELOW
TO 10 ABOVE WILL BE COMMON WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO
LOWER TEENS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...EXCEPT THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT WHERE SOME MID AND UPPER TEENS ARE POSSIBLE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BE IN CONTROL THIS AFTERNOON...
RIDGING IN FROM THE TN AND OH VALLEYS. SUNNY OR MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE DUE TO THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM THE
ANTICYCLONE. THE WINDS WILL ABATE IN THE MID TO LATE PM...AS A
WEAK CLIPPER APPROACHES.

STORM FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY LOOKS ON TRACK...AND A WINTER
STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR MOST OF THE FCST AREA EXCEPT FOR
HAMILTON...NRN WARREN...NRN WASHINGTON...AND NRN HERKIMER
COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WINTER STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY EVENING
THROUGH MONDAY FOR MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND EXCLUDING THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...

FOR TONIGHT...A FAST MOVING MOISTURE STARVED CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO RACE FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
YORK OVERNIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS TO
THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE FA WITH LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ELSEWHERE.
IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY COLD WITH LOWS RANGING FROM 5 BELOW
ZERO NORTHWEST TO THE 10 ABOVE ZERO SOUTHEAST.

ON SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRETCH ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND IN
THE WAKE OF THE CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WE ARE EXPECTING A DRY DAY.
ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM SO
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHER THAN
SATURDAY...BUT STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH READINGS FROM THE
LOWER TEENS NORTHWEST TO UPPER 20S SOUTHEAST.

ON SUNDAY NIGHT WE ARE EXPECTING SNOW TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE FA
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS AND A
WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR MUCH OF THE FA EXCLUDING
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. WE WILL BE DEALING WITH A PROGRESSIVE
TYPE SYSTEM AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS REMAINS NEUTRAL POSITIVELY
TILTED UNTIL THE SYSTEM IS WELL OFF THE COAST. THE SURFACE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM THE OHIO VALLEY LATE SUNDAY ACROSS THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND PASS SOUTHEAST OF LONG
ISLAND ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE GOOD OVERRUNNING AS
THERE IS PLENTY OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DECENT FRONTOGENESIS AT H7
BTWN 12Z AND 18Z ON MONDAY. IN THE WATCH AREA 7 INCHES OR MORE OF
SNOW IS POSSIBLE...HOWEVER AS WITH SO MANY STORMS THIS WINTER
THERE WILL BE A SHARP CUTOFF ON THE NORTHERN EDGE...THUS THE
REASON THAT THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS WERE LEFT OUT OF THE WATCH AT
THIS TIME. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 10 TO 15
BELOW ZERO NORTHWEST TO THE MID TEENS SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON MONDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTHWEST TO AROUND 20 SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD...

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...IN THE WAKE OF MONDAY/S STORM SYSTEM...THE
COMBINATION OF POTENTIALLY DEEP FRESH SNOW COVER...DECREASING
WIND...AND CLEARING SKIES SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO PLUMMET LATER AT
NIGHT WELL BELOW ZERO IN MOST AREAS...WITH MANY MIN TEMPS POSSIBLY
DIPPING INTO THE -10 TO -20 F RANGE BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY FOR AREAS
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AT THAT TIME...SO
WIND CHILL VALUES SHOULD BE CLOSE TO ACTUAL AIR TEMPS. AFTER THE
BRUTALLY COLD START...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH OCCASIONAL HIGH
CLOUDS PASSING THROUGH. MAX TEMPS ON TUE SHOULD EVENTUALLY REACH THE
LOWER/MID TEENS IN VALLEYS AND SINGLE DIGITS FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

TUE NT-THU...A CLIPPER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY DURING THIS PERIOD. SOME
WARM ADVECTION SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TUE NT INTO EARLY
WED...ESP ACROSS NW AREAS. THEN...ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE REGION LATE WED OR
EARLY THU...PRECEDED AND ACCOMPANIED BY SNOW SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SOME MINOR ACCUMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND
SOUTHERN VT. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE BY LATE
THU. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...BUT WILL MODERATE A BIT IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE INCOMING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH WED MAX
TEMPS POSSIBLY REACHING AROUND OR JUST OVER 30 IN VALLEYS...WITH
MAINLY MID/UPPER 20S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS TUE
NT/WED AM SHOULD FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN MOST AREAS...WITH
SOME SUBZERO MINS POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AND POSSIBLY ACROSS
THE LAKE GEORGE REGION. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT MIN TEMPS OCCUR EARLY
TUE EVE...THEN RISE LATER AT NIGHT AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
ALONG WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. WED NT/THU AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO
THE TEENS IN MOST VALLEYS...WITH SINGLE DIGITS CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. ON THU...MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE TEENS TO
LOWER 20S...BUT MAY FALL IN THE AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION STRENGTHENS.

THU NT-FRI...GENERALLY COLD AND DRY. MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL BELOW
ZERO IN MOST AREAS...AND WITH SOME LINGERING WIND...WIND CHILL
VALUES MAY REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA IN MANY AREAS...AND POSSIBLY
WARNING LEVELS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. FRI MAX
TEMPS SHOULD ONLY REACH THE LOWER/MID TEENS IN VALLEYS...AND SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY RIDGE IN THIS AFTERNOON...AS A CLIPPER
LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND SE ONTARIO
TONIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH BY SUNDAY MORNING...AND
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MOST OF THE NEXT 24 HRS FOR
KALB/KPSF/KGFL/KPOU. SOME CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTH AND
WEST BTWN 00Z-06Z. THE CIGS WILL LOWER TO 3-6 KFT AGL BTWN 06Z-
12Z. THE BEST CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS WILL BE AT KPSF. ONCE THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES E/SE AFTER 12Z/SUN...THE SKIES WILL GRADUALLY
BECOME PARTLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

W/NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 10-15 KT THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME
GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS AT KALB/KPSF. THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT FROM
THE N TO W AT LESS THAN 6 KTS OVERNIGHT. THE WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE W TO NW AT 5-10 KTS SUNDAY LATE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SN.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SN.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM LATE SUNDAY EVENING INTO
MONDAY WITH MODERATE TO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. ANY
CHANGE IN THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THE STORM WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT
ON THE SNOWFALL FORECAST.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES
AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ038>041-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11







000
FXUS61 KALY 311758
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1258 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRIGID AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE NORTHEAST TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE BRIEFLY IN CONTROL THIS AFTERNOON...THEN A CLIPPER
LOW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1257 PM EST...THE WIND CHILL HEADLINES HAVE BEEN ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE. STILL...A BITTERLY COLD DAY OUT THERE WITH W TO NW WINDS
10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH. WIND CHILLS 10 BELOW
TO 10 ABOVE WILL BE COMMON WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO
LOWER TEENS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...EXCEPT THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT WHERE SOME MID AND UPPER TEENS ARE POSSIBLE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BE IN CONTROL THIS AFTERNOON...
RIDGING IN FROM THE TN AND OH VALLEYS. SUNNY OR MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE DUE TO THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM THE
ANTICYCLONE. THE WINDS WILL ABATE IN THE MID TO LATE PM...AS A
WEAK CLIPPER APPROACHES.

STORM FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY LOOKS ON TRACK...AND A WINTER
STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR MOST OF THE FCST AREA EXCEPT FOR
HAMILTON...NRN WARREN...NRN WASHINGTON...AND NRN HERKIMER
COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WINTER STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY EVENING
THROUGH MONDAY FOR MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND EXCLUDING THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...

FOR TONIGHT...A FAST MOVING MOISTURE STARVED CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO RACE FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
YORK OVERNIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS TO
THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE FA WITH LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ELSEWHERE.
IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY COLD WITH LOWS RANGING FROM 5 BELOW
ZERO NORTHWEST TO THE 10 ABOVE ZERO SOUTHEAST.

ON SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRETCH ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND IN
THE WAKE OF THE CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WE ARE EXPECTING A DRY DAY.
ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM SO
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHER THAN
SATURDAY...BUT STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH READINGS FROM THE
LOWER TEENS NORTHWEST TO UPPER 20S SOUTHEAST.

ON SUNDAY NIGHT WE ARE EXPECTING SNOW TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE FA
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS AND A
WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR MUCH OF THE FA EXCLUDING
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. WE WILL BE DEALING WITH A PROGRESSIVE
TYPE SYSTEM AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS REMAINS NEUTRAL POSITIVELY
TILTED UNTIL THE SYSTEM IS WELL OFF THE COAST. THE SURFACE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM THE OHIO VALLEY LATE SUNDAY ACROSS THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND PASS SOUTHEAST OF LONG
ISLAND ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE GOOD OVERRUNNING AS
THERE IS PLENTY OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DECENT FRONTOGENESIS AT H7
BTWN 12Z AND 18Z ON MONDAY. IN THE WATCH AREA 7 INCHES OR MORE OF
SNOW IS POSSIBLE...HOWEVER AS WITH SO MANY STORMS THIS WINTER
THERE WILL BE A SHARP CUTOFF ON THE NORTHERN EDGE...THUS THE
REASON THAT THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS WERE LEFT OUT OF THE WATCH AT
THIS TIME. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 10 TO 15
BELOW ZERO NORTHWEST TO THE MID TEENS SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON MONDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTHWEST TO AROUND 20 SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD...

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...IN THE WAKE OF MONDAY/S STORM SYSTEM...THE
COMBINATION OF POTENTIALLY DEEP FRESH SNOW COVER...DECREASING
WIND...AND CLEARING SKIES SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO PLUMMET LATER AT
NIGHT WELL BELOW ZERO IN MOST AREAS...WITH MANY MIN TEMPS POSSIBLY
DIPPING INTO THE -10 TO -20 F RANGE BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY FOR AREAS
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AT THAT TIME...SO
WIND CHILL VALUES SHOULD BE CLOSE TO ACTUAL AIR TEMPS. AFTER THE
BRUTALLY COLD START...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH OCCASIONAL HIGH
CLOUDS PASSING THROUGH. MAX TEMPS ON TUE SHOULD EVENTUALLY REACH THE
LOWER/MID TEENS IN VALLEYS AND SINGLE DIGITS FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

TUE NT-THU...A CLIPPER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY DURING THIS PERIOD. SOME
WARM ADVECTION SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TUE NT INTO EARLY
WED...ESP ACROSS NW AREAS. THEN...ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE REGION LATE WED OR
EARLY THU...PRECEDED AND ACCOMPANIED BY SNOW SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SOME MINOR ACCUMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND
SOUTHERN VT. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE BY LATE
THU. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...BUT WILL MODERATE A BIT IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE INCOMING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH WED MAX
TEMPS POSSIBLY REACHING AROUND OR JUST OVER 30 IN VALLEYS...WITH
MAINLY MID/UPPER 20S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS TUE
NT/WED AM SHOULD FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN MOST AREAS...WITH
SOME SUBZERO MINS POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AND POSSIBLY ACROSS
THE LAKE GEORGE REGION. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT MIN TEMPS OCCUR EARLY
TUE EVE...THEN RISE LATER AT NIGHT AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
ALONG WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. WED NT/THU AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO
THE TEENS IN MOST VALLEYS...WITH SINGLE DIGITS CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. ON THU...MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE TEENS TO
LOWER 20S...BUT MAY FALL IN THE AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION STRENGTHENS.

THU NT-FRI...GENERALLY COLD AND DRY. MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL BELOW
ZERO IN MOST AREAS...AND WITH SOME LINGERING WIND...WIND CHILL
VALUES MAY REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA IN MANY AREAS...AND POSSIBLY
WARNING LEVELS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. FRI MAX
TEMPS SHOULD ONLY REACH THE LOWER/MID TEENS IN VALLEYS...AND SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY RIDGE IN THIS AFTERNOON...AS A CLIPPER
LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND SE ONTARIO
TONIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH BY SUNDAY MORNING...AND
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MOST OF THE NEXT 24 HRS FOR
KALB/KPSF/KGFL/KPOU. SOME CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTH AND
WEST BTWN 00Z-06Z. THE CIGS WILL LOWER TO 3-6 KFT AGL BTWN 06Z-
12Z. THE BEST CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS WILL BE AT KPSF. ONCE THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES E/SE AFTER 12Z/SUN...THE SKIES WILL GRADUALLY
BECOME PARTLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

W/NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 10-15 KT THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME
GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS AT KALB/KPSF. THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT FROM
THE N TO W AT LESS THAN 6 KTS OVERNIGHT. THE WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE W TO NW AT 5-10 KTS SUNDAY LATE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SN.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SN.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM LATE SUNDAY EVENING INTO
MONDAY WITH MODERATE TO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. ANY
CHANGE IN THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THE STORM WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT
ON THE SNOWFALL FORECAST.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES
AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ038>041-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11







000
FXUS61 KALY 311642
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1142 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRIGID AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE NORTHEAST TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE BRIEFLY IN CONTROL THIS AFTERNOON...THEN A CLIPPER
LOW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1142 AM EST...THE WIND CHILL HEADLINES HAVE BEEN ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE. STILL...A BITTERLY COLD DAY OUT THERE WITH W TO NW WINDS
10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH. WIND CHILLS 10 BELOW
TO 10 ABOVE WILL BE COMMON WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO
LOWER TEENS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...EXCEPT THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT WHERE SOME MID AND UPPER TEENS ARE POSSIBLE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BE IN CONTROL TODAY...RIDGING IN FROM
THE TN AND OH VALLEYS. SUNNY OR MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WILL
DOMINATE DUE TO THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM THE ANTICYCLONE. THE
WINDS WILL ABATE IN THE MID TO LATE PM...AS A WEAK CLIPPER
APPROACHES.

STORM FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY LOOKS ON TRACK...AND A WINTER
STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR MOST OF THE FCST AREA EXCEPT FOR
HAMILTON...NRN WARREN...NRN WASHINGTON...AND NRN HERKIMER
COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WINTER STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY EVENING
THROUGH MONDAY FOR MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND EXCLUDING THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...

FOR TONIGHT...A FAST MOVING MOISTURE STARVED CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO RACE FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
YORK OVERNIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS TO
THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE FA WITH LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ELSEWHERE.
IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY COLD WITH LOWS RANGING FROM 5 BELOW
ZERO NORTHWEST TO THE 10 ABOVE ZERO SOUTHEAST.

ON SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRETCH ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND IN
THE WAKE OF THE CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WE ARE EXPECTING A DRY DAY.
ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM SO
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHER THAN
SATURDAY...BUT STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH READINGS FROM THE
LOWER TEENS NORTHWEST TO UPPER 20S SOUTHEAST.

ON SUNDAY NIGHT WE ARE EXPECTING SNOW TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE FA
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS AND A
WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR MUCH OF THE FA EXCLUDING
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. WE WILL BE DEALING WITH A PROGRESSIVE
TYPE SYSTEM AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS REMAINS NEUTRAL POSITIVELY
TILTED UNTIL THE SYSTEM IS WELL OFF THE COAST. THE SURFACE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM THE OHIO VALLEY LATE SUNDAY ACROSS THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND PASS SOUTHEAST OF LONG
ISLAND ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE GOOD OVERRUNNING AS
THERE IS PLENTY OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DECENT FRONTOGENESIS AT H7
BTWN 12Z AND 18Z ON MONDAY. IN THE WATCH AREA 7 INCHES OR MORE OF
SNOW IS POSSIBLE...HOWEVER AS WITH SO MANY STORMS THIS WINTER
THERE WILL BE A SHARP CUTOFF ON THE NORTHERN EDGE...THUS THE
REASON THAT THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS WERE LEFT OUT OF THE WATCH AT
THIS TIME. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 10 TO 15
BELOW ZERO NORTHWEST TO THE MID TEENS SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON MONDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTHWEST TO AROUND 20 SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD...

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...IN THE WAKE OF MONDAY/S STORM SYSTEM...THE
COMBINATION OF POTENTIALLY DEEP FRESH SNOW COVER...DECREASING
WIND...AND CLEARING SKIES SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO PLUMMET LATER AT
NIGHT WELL BELOW ZERO IN MOST AREAS...WITH MANY MIN TEMPS POSSIBLY
DIPPING INTO THE -10 TO -20 F RANGE BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY FOR AREAS
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AT THAT TIME...SO
WIND CHILL VALUES SHOULD BE CLOSE TO ACTUAL AIR TEMPS. AFTER THE
BRUTALLY COLD START...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH OCCASIONAL HIGH
CLOUDS PASSING THROUGH. MAX TEMPS ON TUE SHOULD EVENTUALLY REACH THE
LOWER/MID TEENS IN VALLEYS AND SINGLE DIGITS FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

TUE NT-THU...A CLIPPER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY DURING THIS PERIOD. SOME
WARM ADVECTION SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TUE NT INTO EARLY
WED...ESP ACROSS NW AREAS. THEN...ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE REGION LATE WED OR
EARLY THU...PRECEDED AND ACCOMPANIED BY SNOW SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SOME MINOR ACCUMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND
SOUTHERN VT. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE BY LATE
THU. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...BUT WILL MODERATE A BIT IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE INCOMING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH WED MAX
TEMPS POSSIBLY REACHING AROUND OR JUST OVER 30 IN VALLEYS...WITH
MAINLY MID/UPPER 20S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS TUE
NT/WED AM SHOULD FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN MOST AREAS...WITH
SOME SUBZERO MINS POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AND POSSIBLY ACROSS
THE LAKE GEORGE REGION. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT MIN TEMPS OCCUR EARLY
TUE EVE...THEN RISE LATER AT NIGHT AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
ALONG WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. WED NT/THU AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO
THE TEENS IN MOST VALLEYS...WITH SINGLE DIGITS CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. ON THU...MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE TEENS TO
LOWER 20S...BUT MAY FALL IN THE AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION STRENGTHENS.

THU NT-FRI...GENERALLY COLD AND DRY. MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL BELOW
ZERO IN MOST AREAS...AND WITH SOME LINGERING WIND...WIND CHILL
VALUES MAY REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA IN MANY AREAS...AND POSSIBLY
WARNING LEVELS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. FRI MAX
TEMPS SHOULD ONLY REACH THE LOWER/MID TEENS IN VALLEYS...AND SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE STRENGTHENING WELL OFF THE SOUTHEAST
NEW ENGLAND COAST...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION TODAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES LATER TONIGHT.

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ALONG WITH VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE
THROUGH TODAY...WITH JUST A FEW STRATOCU CLOUDS AROUND BY LATE
IN THE DAY. STRATOCU CLOUDS WILL THEN INCREASE SAT EVENING IN
ADVANCE OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE
GREAT LAKES. SOME MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 07Z/SUN AT
KPSF. ELSEWHERE...MOST CIGS WILL BE IN THE 3500-4500 FT AGL
RANGE...BUT THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT MVFR CIGS COULD DEVELOP
AT KALB AND KGFL TOWARD 12Z/SUN.

WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 10-15 KT TODAY...WITH SOME
GUSTS OCCASIONALLY REACHING UP TO 25 KT AT TIMES. WEST WINDS WILL
DECREASE TO UNDER 10 KT AROUND SUNSET AND SHOULD CONTINUE LIGHT
FROM THE WEST LATER SAT NT.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SN.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SN.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM LATE SUNDAY EVENING INTO
MONDAY WITH MODERATE TO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. ANY
CHANGE IN THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THE STORM WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT
ON THE SNOWFALL FORECAST.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES
AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ038>041-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...FRUGIS/KL
HYDROLOGY...11







000
FXUS61 KALY 311642
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1142 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRIGID AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE NORTHEAST TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE BRIEFLY IN CONTROL THIS AFTERNOON...THEN A CLIPPER
LOW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1142 AM EST...THE WIND CHILL HEADLINES HAVE BEEN ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE. STILL...A BITTERLY COLD DAY OUT THERE WITH W TO NW WINDS
10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH. WIND CHILLS 10 BELOW
TO 10 ABOVE WILL BE COMMON WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO
LOWER TEENS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...EXCEPT THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT WHERE SOME MID AND UPPER TEENS ARE POSSIBLE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BE IN CONTROL TODAY...RIDGING IN FROM
THE TN AND OH VALLEYS. SUNNY OR MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WILL
DOMINATE DUE TO THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM THE ANTICYCLONE. THE
WINDS WILL ABATE IN THE MID TO LATE PM...AS A WEAK CLIPPER
APPROACHES.

STORM FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY LOOKS ON TRACK...AND A WINTER
STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR MOST OF THE FCST AREA EXCEPT FOR
HAMILTON...NRN WARREN...NRN WASHINGTON...AND NRN HERKIMER
COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WINTER STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY EVENING
THROUGH MONDAY FOR MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND EXCLUDING THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...

FOR TONIGHT...A FAST MOVING MOISTURE STARVED CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO RACE FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
YORK OVERNIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS TO
THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE FA WITH LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ELSEWHERE.
IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY COLD WITH LOWS RANGING FROM 5 BELOW
ZERO NORTHWEST TO THE 10 ABOVE ZERO SOUTHEAST.

ON SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRETCH ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND IN
THE WAKE OF THE CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WE ARE EXPECTING A DRY DAY.
ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM SO
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHER THAN
SATURDAY...BUT STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH READINGS FROM THE
LOWER TEENS NORTHWEST TO UPPER 20S SOUTHEAST.

ON SUNDAY NIGHT WE ARE EXPECTING SNOW TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE FA
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS AND A
WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR MUCH OF THE FA EXCLUDING
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. WE WILL BE DEALING WITH A PROGRESSIVE
TYPE SYSTEM AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS REMAINS NEUTRAL POSITIVELY
TILTED UNTIL THE SYSTEM IS WELL OFF THE COAST. THE SURFACE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM THE OHIO VALLEY LATE SUNDAY ACROSS THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND PASS SOUTHEAST OF LONG
ISLAND ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE GOOD OVERRUNNING AS
THERE IS PLENTY OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DECENT FRONTOGENESIS AT H7
BTWN 12Z AND 18Z ON MONDAY. IN THE WATCH AREA 7 INCHES OR MORE OF
SNOW IS POSSIBLE...HOWEVER AS WITH SO MANY STORMS THIS WINTER
THERE WILL BE A SHARP CUTOFF ON THE NORTHERN EDGE...THUS THE
REASON THAT THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS WERE LEFT OUT OF THE WATCH AT
THIS TIME. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 10 TO 15
BELOW ZERO NORTHWEST TO THE MID TEENS SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON MONDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTHWEST TO AROUND 20 SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD...

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...IN THE WAKE OF MONDAY/S STORM SYSTEM...THE
COMBINATION OF POTENTIALLY DEEP FRESH SNOW COVER...DECREASING
WIND...AND CLEARING SKIES SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO PLUMMET LATER AT
NIGHT WELL BELOW ZERO IN MOST AREAS...WITH MANY MIN TEMPS POSSIBLY
DIPPING INTO THE -10 TO -20 F RANGE BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY FOR AREAS
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AT THAT TIME...SO
WIND CHILL VALUES SHOULD BE CLOSE TO ACTUAL AIR TEMPS. AFTER THE
BRUTALLY COLD START...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH OCCASIONAL HIGH
CLOUDS PASSING THROUGH. MAX TEMPS ON TUE SHOULD EVENTUALLY REACH THE
LOWER/MID TEENS IN VALLEYS AND SINGLE DIGITS FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

TUE NT-THU...A CLIPPER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY DURING THIS PERIOD. SOME
WARM ADVECTION SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TUE NT INTO EARLY
WED...ESP ACROSS NW AREAS. THEN...ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE REGION LATE WED OR
EARLY THU...PRECEDED AND ACCOMPANIED BY SNOW SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SOME MINOR ACCUMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND
SOUTHERN VT. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE BY LATE
THU. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...BUT WILL MODERATE A BIT IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE INCOMING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH WED MAX
TEMPS POSSIBLY REACHING AROUND OR JUST OVER 30 IN VALLEYS...WITH
MAINLY MID/UPPER 20S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS TUE
NT/WED AM SHOULD FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN MOST AREAS...WITH
SOME SUBZERO MINS POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AND POSSIBLY ACROSS
THE LAKE GEORGE REGION. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT MIN TEMPS OCCUR EARLY
TUE EVE...THEN RISE LATER AT NIGHT AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
ALONG WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. WED NT/THU AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO
THE TEENS IN MOST VALLEYS...WITH SINGLE DIGITS CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. ON THU...MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE TEENS TO
LOWER 20S...BUT MAY FALL IN THE AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION STRENGTHENS.

THU NT-FRI...GENERALLY COLD AND DRY. MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL BELOW
ZERO IN MOST AREAS...AND WITH SOME LINGERING WIND...WIND CHILL
VALUES MAY REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA IN MANY AREAS...AND POSSIBLY
WARNING LEVELS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. FRI MAX
TEMPS SHOULD ONLY REACH THE LOWER/MID TEENS IN VALLEYS...AND SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE STRENGTHENING WELL OFF THE SOUTHEAST
NEW ENGLAND COAST...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION TODAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES LATER TONIGHT.

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ALONG WITH VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE
THROUGH TODAY...WITH JUST A FEW STRATOCU CLOUDS AROUND BY LATE
IN THE DAY. STRATOCU CLOUDS WILL THEN INCREASE SAT EVENING IN
ADVANCE OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE
GREAT LAKES. SOME MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 07Z/SUN AT
KPSF. ELSEWHERE...MOST CIGS WILL BE IN THE 3500-4500 FT AGL
RANGE...BUT THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT MVFR CIGS COULD DEVELOP
AT KALB AND KGFL TOWARD 12Z/SUN.

WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 10-15 KT TODAY...WITH SOME
GUSTS OCCASIONALLY REACHING UP TO 25 KT AT TIMES. WEST WINDS WILL
DECREASE TO UNDER 10 KT AROUND SUNSET AND SHOULD CONTINUE LIGHT
FROM THE WEST LATER SAT NT.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SN.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SN.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM LATE SUNDAY EVENING INTO
MONDAY WITH MODERATE TO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. ANY
CHANGE IN THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THE STORM WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT
ON THE SNOWFALL FORECAST.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES
AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ038>041-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...FRUGIS/KL
HYDROLOGY...11








000
FXUS61 KBOX 311528
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1028 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BLUSTERY AND VERY COLD CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY EVENING WITH POTENTIALLY HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATION AND GUSTY
WINDS. A FRIGID AIRMASS WILL FOLLOW MONDAY NIGHT WITH DANGEROUSLY
COLD WIND CHILLS. MODERATING TEMPS WEDNESDAY THEN VERY COLD
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. A COASTAL STORM
WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE WEEK BUT WILL
HAVE TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

1030 AM UPDATE...

SNOW WILL LINGER ACROSS THE CAPE FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO BUT WILL
MOVE OFFSHORE. SNOW RANGES ARE GENERALLY 1-2 INCHES ACROSS THE
IMMEDIATE EAST COAST PER REPORTS. 700 MB LOW HAS CUTOFF THIS
MORNING ALLOWING FOR PRESSURE GRADIENT TO INCREASE AND GUSTY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE. WIND GUSTS AROUND 20-40 MPH WILL INCREASE THE
POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW SO HAVE INSERTED THE
POTENTIAL INTO THE FORECAST.

TEMPERATURES ARE STARTING TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION SO HAVE
DROPPED MOST OF THE WIND CHILL ADV. DID KEEP ON IMMEDIATE WESTERN
ZONES AND ALL OF FRANKLIN COUNTY AS THEY ARE STILL FILTERING WITH
-15F AS OF 10 AM. PLAN IS STILL TO LET THE ADVISORY DROP AT 11AM.

ASIDE FROM MINOR CHANGES...BULK OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK
FOR TODAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

STRONG NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY. GUSTS 35-45 MPH EXPECTED WITH
A FEW GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH NEAR THE COAST.

BITTER COLD WIND CHILLS DOWN TO -10 TO -20 THIS MORNING ACROSS
CENTRAL AND W NEW ENG AND -5 TO -10 IN THE COASTAL PLAIN.
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS ONLY IN THE TEENS MOST LOCATIONS BUT WITH THE
STRONG WINDS...WIND CHILLS WILL ONLY RECOVER TO -5 TO +5.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...

WEAK SFC RIDGE MOVES INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF ARCTIC FRONT
DROPPING INTO N NEW ENG. THIS WILL RESULT IN GRADUAL DIMINISHING
WINDS TONIGHT...BUT REMAINING RATHER GUSTY OVER THE CAPE/ISLANDS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS
WITH TEENS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND CAPE/ISLANDS.

SUNDAY...

ARCTIC FRONT WILL PUSH S INTO SNE REACHING THE S COAST BY EVENING.
SUNSHINE WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON AS
OVERRUNNING MID/HIGH CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE REGION...ALONG WITH
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME LOWER CLOUDS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES.
BUT REMAINING DRY THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE
MID/UPPER 20S BUT DROPPING BACK INTO THE TEENS TOWARD EVENING
ACROSS N ZONES AS ARCTIC AIR BEGINS TO DRAIN SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* LOW PRES PASSES S OF NEW ENGLAND SUN NIGHT AND MON...COLD AIR IN
  PLACE SIGNALS PLOWABLE SNOWFALL FOR THE REGION
* WINTER STORM WATCH EXTENDED TO COVER ENTIRE REGION
* AS LOW EXITS MON NIGHT...MORE ARCTIC AIR AND STRONG WINDS MOVE
  IN...WIND CHILL HEADLINES LIKELY
* RECORD LOWS POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING WITH HIGH PRES
* ANOTHER LOW POSSIBLE WED OR THU...LOW CONFIDENCE CONTINUES

OVERVIEW...

MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SIGNAL PROGRESSIVE PATTERN BUT
GENERAL LONG WAVE TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH MOST OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SEVERAL H5 SHORT WAVES IN NORTHERN STREAM FLOW
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. VERY COLD AIR WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN TEMPS WILL RISE CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS
AROUND MID WEEK. ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT AND POSSIBLE LOW PRESSURE MAY
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION AROUND WED OR THU.

DETAILS...

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
VIGOROUS H5 SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRES MOVE OUT
OF THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID ATLC COAST BY 12Z MON. BY THEN...
THOUGH...EXCELLENT OVERRUNNING IN PLACE WITH DEEP MOISTURE FEED
WORKING INTO THE REGION. WITH COLD AIR ALREADY IN PLACE...AND HIGH
PRES MOVING IN TANDEM ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA... WILL NOT BE
DISPLACED. EXPECT LIGHT SNOW TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT.

AS THE LOW MOVES OFF THE MID ATLC COAST...WILL SEE STRONG
INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES ALONG 40N LATITUDE
BEFORE TURNING NE NEAR THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK MON EVENING.
EXCELLENT DENDRITIC GROWTH WITH ARCTIC AIRMASS...SO EXPECT PERIODS
OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL ESPECIALLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH
MIDDAY AS THE LOW PASSES TO THE S. LOOKS LIKE THE HEAVIEST
SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR S OF THE MASS PIKE...BUT THE ENTIRE REGION
WILL SEE A GOOD AMOUNT OF SNOWFALL. ONLY QUESTION AT THIS POINT
WILL BE WHETHER A PIECE OF SOMEWHAT MILDER AIR ALOFT WILL WORK
INTO THE OUTER CAPE AND ISLANDS WHICH COULD CAUSE A BRIEF MIX WITH
SLEET OR EVEN RAIN MON MORNING OR MIDDAY. ONCE THE LOW
PASSES...THOUGH...WILL CHANGE QUICKLY BACK TO SNOW THERE DURING
THE AFTERNOON.

WITH THE SNOW ARRIVING SUNDAY NIGHT...CAN EXPECT AT LEAST LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BY THE TIME OF THE START OF THE MONDAY MORNING
COMMUTE. EXPECT A ROUGH COMMUTE IF ANYONE EVEN VENTURES OUT OF
DOORS MONDAY MORNING. VSBYS WILL ALSO BE REDUCED AS WELL.

WITH ALL MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT...AND QPF TOTALS ON ORDER
OF 0.6 TO 1.1 INCHES FROM N-S ACROSS THE REGION AND COLD AIRMASS
IN PLACE...WILL SEE SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS AROUND 13:1 OR SO PRETTY
MUCH EVERYWHERE EXCEPT AROUND 10:1 ON THE OUTER CAPE AND THE
ISLANDS. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE UPDATED THE WINTER STORM WATCH
TO INCLUDE THE ENTIRE REGION...ADDING NORTHERN MASSACHUSETTS AND
THE ISLANDS TO THE WATCH.

THE LOW WILL INTENSIFY RAPIDLY AS IT EXITS LATE MON AND MON NIGHT.
INCREASING PRES GRADIENT WILL CAUSE N-NW WINDS TO INCREASE...WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30-40 MPH OR HIGHER ESPECIALLY ALONG THE E COAST.

AS FOR COASTAL FLOODING...IT APPEARS THAT THE STRONGER N-NE WINDS
WILL OCCUR AROUND THE TIME OF LOW TIDE MONDAY AFTERNOON. COULD SEE
UP SURGE TO ONE OR TWO FEET. THE SURGE IS NOT COINCIDING WITH
HIGH TIDE...SO WE DO NOT EXPECT ISSUES AT THIS TIME. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS ASPECT CLOSELY THOUGH.

TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WILL PLUMMET AS ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC
AIR WORKS IN. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO COME CLOSE TO RECORD LOWS
DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS OF TUE MORNING. MAINLY LOCATIONS WILL
LIKELY SEE READINGS BELOW ZERO...EXCEPT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S
COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. PLEASE SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION
BELOW FOR THE RECORDS.

TUESDAY...
HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS. WILL SEE BLUSTERY CONDITIONS EARLY
TUE...BUT COLD AIR REMAINS IN PLACE. EXPECT HIGHS ONLY IN THE
TEENS...RANGING TO AROUND 20 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S COAST.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...
THE HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE ON WED...WITH A RETURN FLOW OF MILDER
AIR. TEMPS WED INTO THU MAY ACTUALLY REBOUND CLOSE TO SEASONAL
NORMALS WITH LIGHT SW WINDS.

BIG QUESTION AT THIS POINT WILL BE THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT
OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA ALONG WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRES. NOT
A LOT OF CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT DUE TO WIDE MODEL VARIANCE. FOR
NOW...HAVE MENTIONED CHANCE OF PRECIP...MAINLY LIGHT SNOW...AS
COLD FRONT PASSES AROUND WED NIGHT OR EARLY THU.

FRIDAY...
ANOTHER HIGH LOOKS TO BUILD E WITH MORE COLD AIR...BUT TIMING IS
UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM.../THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...EXPECT VFR WITH CLEARING SKIES. NW GUSTS TO 30-40 KT. A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE OUTER CAPE BUT CIGS SHOULD BE VFR.

TONIGHT...VFR WITH GRADUAL DIMINISHING WIND.

SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR...BUT LOW PROB FOR AREAS OF MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MVFR VSBYS DUE TO LIGHT SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW EARLY THIS MORNING. IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFT 12Z.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VFR TO START...THEN QUICKLY DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TO IFR-
VLIFR WITH SNOW MOVING IN FROM W-E. PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE
MONDAY MORNING INTO MIDDAY. BLUSTERY NE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO
AROUND 30 KT STARTING MON AFTERNOON THEN VEER TO NW BUT REMAIN
GUSTY MON NIGHT. CONDITIONS IMPROVE FROM W-E MON NIGHT...BUT LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS MAY LINGER ALONG E COAST THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. NW WIND GUSTING TO 25-30
KT EARLY THEN SHOULD DIMINISH.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR THROUGH MIDDAY. MAY SEE MVFR
CONDITIONS MOVE INTO N MA DURING THE AFTERNOON IN SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

1030 AM UPDATE...HAVE EXPANDED THE FREEZING RAIN ADV FOR THE
SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS. BUOY 44008 IS REPORTING FREEZING SPRAY SO
EXPECT IT TO BE OCCURRING ACROSS THE NEW ADVISORY REGION.

TODAY...GALE CENTER LIFTS INTO THE MARITIMES WITH NW GALES
CONTINUING OVER THE WATERS. GUSTS TO 40-45 KT LIKELY WITH
MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY LIKELY. SNOW SHOWERS REDUCE VSBY OVER
EASTERN MA WATERS IN THE MORNING.

TONIGHT...GALE CENTER PULLS FARTHER AWAY WITH WINDS DIMINISHING
BELOW GALE 00-06Z...BUT GUSTS 25-30 KT WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.
MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY LIKELY CONTINUING...ESPECIALLY E MA
COASTAL WATERS.

SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY. SUB
SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOP OVER THE S COASTAL WATERS DURING THE
MORNING...BUT SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE OUTER
EASTERN WATERS. LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY WILL PERSIST.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

SUNDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS BACK FROM NW TO N DURING THE NIGHT...GUSTS INCREASING TO
AROUND 20 KT ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS. VSBYS LOWER IN
DEVELOPING LIGHT SNOW FROM W-E.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT INCREASING E-NE WINDS...GUSTING UP TO 35-40 KT LATE MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. SEAS BUILDING AS HIGH AS 14-17 FT ON THE EASTERN
WATERS AS LOW PRES INTENSIFIES AS IT PASSES S OF THE SOUTHERN
WATERS. WINDS SHIFT TO NW BUT REMAIN GUSTY MON NIGHT. REDUCED
VSBYS IN SNOW...FALLING HEAVILY AT TIMES.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
NW WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST CLOSE TO GALE FORCE THROUGH THE MORNING
THEN WILL DIMINISH BUT REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. SEAS REMAIN
HIGH...UP TO 8-10 FT BUT WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE. WINDS MAY DIMINISH
BELOW SMALL CRAFT TUE NIGHT...BUT SEAS MAY LINGER AROUND 5 FT.

WEDNESDAY....MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS BACK TO SW AND INCREASE...MAY SEE GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KT.
SEAS ALSO REMAIN AROUND 5 FT...MAINLY OVER THE OUTER WATERS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WITH EXTREMELY COLD AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW MONDAY
NIGHT...TEMPERATURES MAY FALL BACK CLOSE TO OR SURPASSING RECORD
LEVELS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AND THAT IS NOT TAKING INTO ACCOUNT
THE STRONG WINDS.

HERE ARE THE RECORD LOWS FOR TUESDAY 2/3...

BOSTON         -5 SET IN 1881
PROVIDENCE     -6 SET IN 1961
WORCESTER      -7 SET IN 1931, 1955 AND 1971
WINDSOR LOCKS  -3 SET IN 1955
BLUE HILL OBS  -7 SET IN 1955

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MAZ022>024.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR MAZ002>024-026.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MAZ007-015-016-
     019>021.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MAZ002-
     003-008-009.
RI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR RIZ008.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR RIZ001>008.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR RIZ005>007.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ231-232-
     250-251.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ231-232-250-251-
     254>256.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ233>235-237.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ233>235-237.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ236.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC
NEAR TERM...KJC/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...KJC/EVT/DUNTEN
MARINE...KJC/EVT/DUNTEN
CLIMATE...STAFF



000
FXUS61 KOKX 311511
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1011 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY. LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND PASSES SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND MONDAY. THE LOW TRACKS WELL TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS PLACE. THE HIGH MOVES ACROSS TUESDAY
AND OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS MIDWEEK WITH
ANOTHER LOW PASSING WELL OFFSHORE LATE IN THE WEEK. BY THAT TIME
FRAME...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED WEST OF THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLEAR SKIES...GUSTY WINDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TODAY.

WIND AND WINDCHILL ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN CANCELLED/EXPIRED BASED
ON SUBSIDING BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPS
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF
35 TO 40 MPH EXPECTED INTO THE AFTERNOON. LOCALIZED GUSTS TO
AROUND 45 MPH POSSIBLE THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY. SUBZERO WINDCHILLS
THIS MORNING RISING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO FOR MOST OF
THE REGION.

AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE THROUGH THE TEENS
TODAY...APPROACHING 20 DEGREES NEAR THE COAST. FOLLOWED A MAV/MET
BLEND WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY HOURLY GFS LAMP NUMBERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTH. WINDS TURN TOWARD THE WEST AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...AND LIGHTEN. TEMPS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS COLD WITH LOWS IN
THE TEENS AND 20S. IN FACT...READINGS WILL NOT FALL MUCH AS THE
NIGHT PROGRESSES DUE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION.

ON SUNDAY...HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE AS TEMPS RISE THROUGH THE
20S...INTO THE 30S. STAYED CLOSE TO A MET/MAV MOS BLEND. A FEW
SNOW FLAKES MAY BE OBSERVED OVER NJ AND WESTERN ZONES VERY LATE IN
THE DAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
RIDING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DO NOT SEE A BIG SHIFT IN THE MODELS THIS RUN...AND GENERAL
AGREEMENT IS NOTED. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH MONDAY.
ANALYSIS OF LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS SUGGESTS SNOW SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH A WINTRY MIX FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT A MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN
FOR A PORTION OF THE AREA. THE EAST END OF LONG ISLAND COULD SEE A
CHANGEOVER TO PLAIN RAIN FOR A TIME.

OVERALL...EXPECT 6 TO 8 INCHES NEAR THE COAST...AND 8 TO 12
INLAND. SOME LIGHT ICING IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST AS WELL. FOR
LONG ISLAND AND NYC...THESE ACCUMULATIONS ARE A TOTAL. THE ACTUAL
AMOUNTS COULD BE LOWER DUE TO RAIN/FREEZING RAIN CHANGEOVER.

FOR THE COAST...SNOW TO BRIEF PD OF RAIN/FZRA AND IP...BEFORE
CHANGING BACK TO SNOW MONDAY AFTN.

INTERIOR...MAINLY SNOW WITH A PERIOD OF SLEET MIXED IN MONDAY MORNING.

TIMING FOR HEAVIEST PRECIP WOULD BE MIDNIGHT THROUGH ABOUT NOON OR
SO MONDAY.

AFTER COLLAB WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS
BEEN POSTED. START TIME 00Z MONDAY THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY. THIS CAN
BE FINE TUNED AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT.

OF COURSE ANY SHIFT IN TRACK NORTH OR SOUTH WILL MAKE A BIG
DIFFERENCE AS OUR AREA WILL BE DEALING WITH THE RAIN/SNOW
LINE...WHICH IS ALWAYS DIFFICULT TO FORECAST.

TEMPS ARE A NAM 2M BLEND WITH GRIDDED MOS. HAND EDITS WERE NEEDED
AS WELL. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE TEENS INLAND TO THE
MID AND UPPER 20S NEAR THE COAST.

ON MONDAY...MID 30S POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST...ERN LI...AND AROUND
20 WELL INLAND. TEMPS DROP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE STORM
PASSES TO THE SE AS COLD AIR RUSHES IN.

AFTER THIS SYSTEM...MONDAY NIGHT UNTIL MIDWEEK...WE WILL BE IN A
QUASI-ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW. A WEAK LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS TUESDAY WITH A LARGER MORE AMPLIFIED SHORTWAVE MOVING
APPROACHING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT AT THE SURFACE APPROACHING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SNOW WITH THIS.

FOR LATE IN THE WEEK...A LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES FAR OFFSHORE...MORE
OFFSHORE WITH THE 12Z ECMWF RUN TODAY...BUT DID NOT WANT TO TOTALLY
MAKE FOR A DRY FORECAST. LEFT IN A CHANCE OF MAINLY SNOW FOR
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THE MODELS HAVE CONVEYED MORE OF A
PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION AND LESS AMPLIFIED THAN BEFORE SO THE LOW IS
NOT THAT STRONG OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRESSURE COULD PROVE TO BE MORE
DOMINANT IN ALLOWING FOR A DRIER FORECAST.

FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES...BELOW NORMAL OVERALL...MAINLY IN 20S EXCEPT
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH LOW TO MID 30S. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO
BE TEENS TO LOWER 20S SUNDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FOR OTHER
PERIODS...LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST AS FOLLOWS...SINGLE DIGITS
TO A LITTLE BELOW ZERO MONDAY NIGHT...SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS
TUESDAY NIGHT...LOW TO MID TEENS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST.

NW WINDS JUST TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG WILL BACK TO AROUND 310 MAG BY
MID-AFTERNOON. WINDS COULD FAVOR LEFT OF 310 MAG AS EARLY AS LATE
AFTN. WIND SPEEDS WILL AVERAGE 15-25 KT WITH 25-35 KT GUSTS THIS
MORNING AND WILL DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT WITH 20-30 KT GUSTS THIS
AFTERNOON. WEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10 KT
TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SUNDAY...VFR. SW WINDS 5-10 KT.
.SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...POTENTIAL HIGH IMPACT DAY. IFR AND SNOW
LIKELY. CHC MIXED PCPN. NE-N G 25-35KT POSSIBLE.
.MONDAY NIGHT...BECOMING VFR AS SNOW COMES TO AN END. N-NW WIND
G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NW GALES OF TO 45 KT ON THE OCEAN WATERS AND UP TO 40 KT ON ALL
OTHER WATERS THIS MORNING...WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF ROUGH SEAS...STRONG WINDS...AND
COLD WATER TEMPS WILL ALSO RESULT IN AT LEAST MODERATE FREEZING
SPRAY TODAY.

GUSTY WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING...THOUGH A FEW 35 KT GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE ON THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WIND
GUSTS LIKELY ON THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS WILL ALSO
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 5 FT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

TRANQUIL CONDS ON THE WATERS AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVERHEAD AND
DEPARTS. ANOTHER LOW APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. CONDS RAMP
UP TO AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS MONDAY AND GALES ARE
LIKELY ON ALL WATERS FOR A PERIOD MONDAY NIGHT.

THESE CONDITIONS GRADUALLY TAPER DOWN EARLY TUESDAY. THE RELATIVELY
MORE QUIET PERIOD LOOKS TO BE LATE TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE COULD BE SOME MARGINAL SCA SEAS ON THE
OUTER OCEAN TUESDAY OF AROUND 5 FT. SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ONCE
AGAIN WITH THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT TOWARDS MIDWEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GENERALLY AROUND 0.8 TO 1.2 INCHES OF LIQUID FORECAST WITH THE
SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. A SNOW AND WINTRY MIX EVENT IS
FORECAST. NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR CTZ009>012.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ069>075-
     078>081-176>179.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NJZ002-004-006-
     103>108.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-
     335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-335-338-
     340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PW
NEAR TERM...PW/NV
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...JM/PW
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...MPS
HYDROLOGY...PW






000
FXUS61 KOKX 311511
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1011 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY. LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND PASSES SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND MONDAY. THE LOW TRACKS WELL TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS PLACE. THE HIGH MOVES ACROSS TUESDAY
AND OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS MIDWEEK WITH
ANOTHER LOW PASSING WELL OFFSHORE LATE IN THE WEEK. BY THAT TIME
FRAME...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED WEST OF THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLEAR SKIES...GUSTY WINDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TODAY.

WIND AND WINDCHILL ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN CANCELLED/EXPIRED BASED
ON SUBSIDING BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPS
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF
35 TO 40 MPH EXPECTED INTO THE AFTERNOON. LOCALIZED GUSTS TO
AROUND 45 MPH POSSIBLE THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY. SUBZERO WINDCHILLS
THIS MORNING RISING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO FOR MOST OF
THE REGION.

AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE THROUGH THE TEENS
TODAY...APPROACHING 20 DEGREES NEAR THE COAST. FOLLOWED A MAV/MET
BLEND WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY HOURLY GFS LAMP NUMBERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTH. WINDS TURN TOWARD THE WEST AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...AND LIGHTEN. TEMPS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS COLD WITH LOWS IN
THE TEENS AND 20S. IN FACT...READINGS WILL NOT FALL MUCH AS THE
NIGHT PROGRESSES DUE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION.

ON SUNDAY...HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE AS TEMPS RISE THROUGH THE
20S...INTO THE 30S. STAYED CLOSE TO A MET/MAV MOS BLEND. A FEW
SNOW FLAKES MAY BE OBSERVED OVER NJ AND WESTERN ZONES VERY LATE IN
THE DAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
RIDING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DO NOT SEE A BIG SHIFT IN THE MODELS THIS RUN...AND GENERAL
AGREEMENT IS NOTED. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH MONDAY.
ANALYSIS OF LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS SUGGESTS SNOW SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH A WINTRY MIX FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT A MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN
FOR A PORTION OF THE AREA. THE EAST END OF LONG ISLAND COULD SEE A
CHANGEOVER TO PLAIN RAIN FOR A TIME.

OVERALL...EXPECT 6 TO 8 INCHES NEAR THE COAST...AND 8 TO 12
INLAND. SOME LIGHT ICING IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST AS WELL. FOR
LONG ISLAND AND NYC...THESE ACCUMULATIONS ARE A TOTAL. THE ACTUAL
AMOUNTS COULD BE LOWER DUE TO RAIN/FREEZING RAIN CHANGEOVER.

FOR THE COAST...SNOW TO BRIEF PD OF RAIN/FZRA AND IP...BEFORE
CHANGING BACK TO SNOW MONDAY AFTN.

INTERIOR...MAINLY SNOW WITH A PERIOD OF SLEET MIXED IN MONDAY MORNING.

TIMING FOR HEAVIEST PRECIP WOULD BE MIDNIGHT THROUGH ABOUT NOON OR
SO MONDAY.

AFTER COLLAB WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS
BEEN POSTED. START TIME 00Z MONDAY THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY. THIS CAN
BE FINE TUNED AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT.

OF COURSE ANY SHIFT IN TRACK NORTH OR SOUTH WILL MAKE A BIG
DIFFERENCE AS OUR AREA WILL BE DEALING WITH THE RAIN/SNOW
LINE...WHICH IS ALWAYS DIFFICULT TO FORECAST.

TEMPS ARE A NAM 2M BLEND WITH GRIDDED MOS. HAND EDITS WERE NEEDED
AS WELL. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE TEENS INLAND TO THE
MID AND UPPER 20S NEAR THE COAST.

ON MONDAY...MID 30S POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST...ERN LI...AND AROUND
20 WELL INLAND. TEMPS DROP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE STORM
PASSES TO THE SE AS COLD AIR RUSHES IN.

AFTER THIS SYSTEM...MONDAY NIGHT UNTIL MIDWEEK...WE WILL BE IN A
QUASI-ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW. A WEAK LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS TUESDAY WITH A LARGER MORE AMPLIFIED SHORTWAVE MOVING
APPROACHING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT AT THE SURFACE APPROACHING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SNOW WITH THIS.

FOR LATE IN THE WEEK...A LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES FAR OFFSHORE...MORE
OFFSHORE WITH THE 12Z ECMWF RUN TODAY...BUT DID NOT WANT TO TOTALLY
MAKE FOR A DRY FORECAST. LEFT IN A CHANCE OF MAINLY SNOW FOR
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THE MODELS HAVE CONVEYED MORE OF A
PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION AND LESS AMPLIFIED THAN BEFORE SO THE LOW IS
NOT THAT STRONG OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRESSURE COULD PROVE TO BE MORE
DOMINANT IN ALLOWING FOR A DRIER FORECAST.

FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES...BELOW NORMAL OVERALL...MAINLY IN 20S EXCEPT
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH LOW TO MID 30S. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO
BE TEENS TO LOWER 20S SUNDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FOR OTHER
PERIODS...LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST AS FOLLOWS...SINGLE DIGITS
TO A LITTLE BELOW ZERO MONDAY NIGHT...SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS
TUESDAY NIGHT...LOW TO MID TEENS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST.

NW WINDS JUST TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG WILL BACK TO AROUND 310 MAG BY
MID-AFTERNOON. WINDS COULD FAVOR LEFT OF 310 MAG AS EARLY AS LATE
AFTN. WIND SPEEDS WILL AVERAGE 15-25 KT WITH 25-35 KT GUSTS THIS
MORNING AND WILL DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT WITH 20-30 KT GUSTS THIS
AFTERNOON. WEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10 KT
TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SUNDAY...VFR. SW WINDS 5-10 KT.
.SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...POTENTIAL HIGH IMPACT DAY. IFR AND SNOW
LIKELY. CHC MIXED PCPN. NE-N G 25-35KT POSSIBLE.
.MONDAY NIGHT...BECOMING VFR AS SNOW COMES TO AN END. N-NW WIND
G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NW GALES OF TO 45 KT ON THE OCEAN WATERS AND UP TO 40 KT ON ALL
OTHER WATERS THIS MORNING...WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF ROUGH SEAS...STRONG WINDS...AND
COLD WATER TEMPS WILL ALSO RESULT IN AT LEAST MODERATE FREEZING
SPRAY TODAY.

GUSTY WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING...THOUGH A FEW 35 KT GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE ON THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WIND
GUSTS LIKELY ON THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS WILL ALSO
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 5 FT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

TRANQUIL CONDS ON THE WATERS AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVERHEAD AND
DEPARTS. ANOTHER LOW APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. CONDS RAMP
UP TO AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS MONDAY AND GALES ARE
LIKELY ON ALL WATERS FOR A PERIOD MONDAY NIGHT.

THESE CONDITIONS GRADUALLY TAPER DOWN EARLY TUESDAY. THE RELATIVELY
MORE QUIET PERIOD LOOKS TO BE LATE TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE COULD BE SOME MARGINAL SCA SEAS ON THE
OUTER OCEAN TUESDAY OF AROUND 5 FT. SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ONCE
AGAIN WITH THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT TOWARDS MIDWEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GENERALLY AROUND 0.8 TO 1.2 INCHES OF LIQUID FORECAST WITH THE
SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. A SNOW AND WINTRY MIX EVENT IS
FORECAST. NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR CTZ009>012.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ069>075-
     078>081-176>179.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NJZ002-004-006-
     103>108.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-
     335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-335-338-
     340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PW
NEAR TERM...PW/NV
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...JM/PW
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...MPS
HYDROLOGY...PW






000
FXUS61 KOKX 311511
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1011 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY. LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND PASSES SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND MONDAY. THE LOW TRACKS WELL TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS PLACE. THE HIGH MOVES ACROSS TUESDAY
AND OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS MIDWEEK WITH
ANOTHER LOW PASSING WELL OFFSHORE LATE IN THE WEEK. BY THAT TIME
FRAME...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED WEST OF THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLEAR SKIES...GUSTY WINDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TODAY.

WIND AND WINDCHILL ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN CANCELLED/EXPIRED BASED
ON SUBSIDING BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPS
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF
35 TO 40 MPH EXPECTED INTO THE AFTERNOON. LOCALIZED GUSTS TO
AROUND 45 MPH POSSIBLE THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY. SUBZERO WINDCHILLS
THIS MORNING RISING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO FOR MOST OF
THE REGION.

AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE THROUGH THE TEENS
TODAY...APPROACHING 20 DEGREES NEAR THE COAST. FOLLOWED A MAV/MET
BLEND WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY HOURLY GFS LAMP NUMBERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTH. WINDS TURN TOWARD THE WEST AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...AND LIGHTEN. TEMPS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS COLD WITH LOWS IN
THE TEENS AND 20S. IN FACT...READINGS WILL NOT FALL MUCH AS THE
NIGHT PROGRESSES DUE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION.

ON SUNDAY...HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE AS TEMPS RISE THROUGH THE
20S...INTO THE 30S. STAYED CLOSE TO A MET/MAV MOS BLEND. A FEW
SNOW FLAKES MAY BE OBSERVED OVER NJ AND WESTERN ZONES VERY LATE IN
THE DAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
RIDING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DO NOT SEE A BIG SHIFT IN THE MODELS THIS RUN...AND GENERAL
AGREEMENT IS NOTED. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH MONDAY.
ANALYSIS OF LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS SUGGESTS SNOW SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH A WINTRY MIX FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT A MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN
FOR A PORTION OF THE AREA. THE EAST END OF LONG ISLAND COULD SEE A
CHANGEOVER TO PLAIN RAIN FOR A TIME.

OVERALL...EXPECT 6 TO 8 INCHES NEAR THE COAST...AND 8 TO 12
INLAND. SOME LIGHT ICING IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST AS WELL. FOR
LONG ISLAND AND NYC...THESE ACCUMULATIONS ARE A TOTAL. THE ACTUAL
AMOUNTS COULD BE LOWER DUE TO RAIN/FREEZING RAIN CHANGEOVER.

FOR THE COAST...SNOW TO BRIEF PD OF RAIN/FZRA AND IP...BEFORE
CHANGING BACK TO SNOW MONDAY AFTN.

INTERIOR...MAINLY SNOW WITH A PERIOD OF SLEET MIXED IN MONDAY MORNING.

TIMING FOR HEAVIEST PRECIP WOULD BE MIDNIGHT THROUGH ABOUT NOON OR
SO MONDAY.

AFTER COLLAB WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS
BEEN POSTED. START TIME 00Z MONDAY THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY. THIS CAN
BE FINE TUNED AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT.

OF COURSE ANY SHIFT IN TRACK NORTH OR SOUTH WILL MAKE A BIG
DIFFERENCE AS OUR AREA WILL BE DEALING WITH THE RAIN/SNOW
LINE...WHICH IS ALWAYS DIFFICULT TO FORECAST.

TEMPS ARE A NAM 2M BLEND WITH GRIDDED MOS. HAND EDITS WERE NEEDED
AS WELL. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE TEENS INLAND TO THE
MID AND UPPER 20S NEAR THE COAST.

ON MONDAY...MID 30S POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST...ERN LI...AND AROUND
20 WELL INLAND. TEMPS DROP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE STORM
PASSES TO THE SE AS COLD AIR RUSHES IN.

AFTER THIS SYSTEM...MONDAY NIGHT UNTIL MIDWEEK...WE WILL BE IN A
QUASI-ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW. A WEAK LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS TUESDAY WITH A LARGER MORE AMPLIFIED SHORTWAVE MOVING
APPROACHING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT AT THE SURFACE APPROACHING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SNOW WITH THIS.

FOR LATE IN THE WEEK...A LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES FAR OFFSHORE...MORE
OFFSHORE WITH THE 12Z ECMWF RUN TODAY...BUT DID NOT WANT TO TOTALLY
MAKE FOR A DRY FORECAST. LEFT IN A CHANCE OF MAINLY SNOW FOR
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THE MODELS HAVE CONVEYED MORE OF A
PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION AND LESS AMPLIFIED THAN BEFORE SO THE LOW IS
NOT THAT STRONG OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRESSURE COULD PROVE TO BE MORE
DOMINANT IN ALLOWING FOR A DRIER FORECAST.

FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES...BELOW NORMAL OVERALL...MAINLY IN 20S EXCEPT
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH LOW TO MID 30S. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO
BE TEENS TO LOWER 20S SUNDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FOR OTHER
PERIODS...LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST AS FOLLOWS...SINGLE DIGITS
TO A LITTLE BELOW ZERO MONDAY NIGHT...SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS
TUESDAY NIGHT...LOW TO MID TEENS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST.

NW WINDS JUST TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG WILL BACK TO AROUND 310 MAG BY
MID-AFTERNOON. WINDS COULD FAVOR LEFT OF 310 MAG AS EARLY AS LATE
AFTN. WIND SPEEDS WILL AVERAGE 15-25 KT WITH 25-35 KT GUSTS THIS
MORNING AND WILL DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT WITH 20-30 KT GUSTS THIS
AFTERNOON. WEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10 KT
TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SUNDAY...VFR. SW WINDS 5-10 KT.
.SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...POTENTIAL HIGH IMPACT DAY. IFR AND SNOW
LIKELY. CHC MIXED PCPN. NE-N G 25-35KT POSSIBLE.
.MONDAY NIGHT...BECOMING VFR AS SNOW COMES TO AN END. N-NW WIND
G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NW GALES OF TO 45 KT ON THE OCEAN WATERS AND UP TO 40 KT ON ALL
OTHER WATERS THIS MORNING...WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF ROUGH SEAS...STRONG WINDS...AND
COLD WATER TEMPS WILL ALSO RESULT IN AT LEAST MODERATE FREEZING
SPRAY TODAY.

GUSTY WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING...THOUGH A FEW 35 KT GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE ON THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WIND
GUSTS LIKELY ON THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS WILL ALSO
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 5 FT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

TRANQUIL CONDS ON THE WATERS AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVERHEAD AND
DEPARTS. ANOTHER LOW APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. CONDS RAMP
UP TO AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS MONDAY AND GALES ARE
LIKELY ON ALL WATERS FOR A PERIOD MONDAY NIGHT.

THESE CONDITIONS GRADUALLY TAPER DOWN EARLY TUESDAY. THE RELATIVELY
MORE QUIET PERIOD LOOKS TO BE LATE TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE COULD BE SOME MARGINAL SCA SEAS ON THE
OUTER OCEAN TUESDAY OF AROUND 5 FT. SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ONCE
AGAIN WITH THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT TOWARDS MIDWEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GENERALLY AROUND 0.8 TO 1.2 INCHES OF LIQUID FORECAST WITH THE
SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. A SNOW AND WINTRY MIX EVENT IS
FORECAST. NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR CTZ009>012.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ069>075-
     078>081-176>179.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NJZ002-004-006-
     103>108.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-
     335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-335-338-
     340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PW
NEAR TERM...PW/NV
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...JM/PW
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...MPS
HYDROLOGY...PW






000
FXUS61 KOKX 311511
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1011 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY. LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND PASSES SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND MONDAY. THE LOW TRACKS WELL TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS PLACE. THE HIGH MOVES ACROSS TUESDAY
AND OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS MIDWEEK WITH
ANOTHER LOW PASSING WELL OFFSHORE LATE IN THE WEEK. BY THAT TIME
FRAME...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED WEST OF THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLEAR SKIES...GUSTY WINDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TODAY.

WIND AND WINDCHILL ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN CANCELLED/EXPIRED BASED
ON SUBSIDING BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPS
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF
35 TO 40 MPH EXPECTED INTO THE AFTERNOON. LOCALIZED GUSTS TO
AROUND 45 MPH POSSIBLE THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY. SUBZERO WINDCHILLS
THIS MORNING RISING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO FOR MOST OF
THE REGION.

AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE THROUGH THE TEENS
TODAY...APPROACHING 20 DEGREES NEAR THE COAST. FOLLOWED A MAV/MET
BLEND WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY HOURLY GFS LAMP NUMBERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTH. WINDS TURN TOWARD THE WEST AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...AND LIGHTEN. TEMPS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS COLD WITH LOWS IN
THE TEENS AND 20S. IN FACT...READINGS WILL NOT FALL MUCH AS THE
NIGHT PROGRESSES DUE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION.

ON SUNDAY...HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE AS TEMPS RISE THROUGH THE
20S...INTO THE 30S. STAYED CLOSE TO A MET/MAV MOS BLEND. A FEW
SNOW FLAKES MAY BE OBSERVED OVER NJ AND WESTERN ZONES VERY LATE IN
THE DAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
RIDING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DO NOT SEE A BIG SHIFT IN THE MODELS THIS RUN...AND GENERAL
AGREEMENT IS NOTED. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH MONDAY.
ANALYSIS OF LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS SUGGESTS SNOW SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH A WINTRY MIX FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT A MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN
FOR A PORTION OF THE AREA. THE EAST END OF LONG ISLAND COULD SEE A
CHANGEOVER TO PLAIN RAIN FOR A TIME.

OVERALL...EXPECT 6 TO 8 INCHES NEAR THE COAST...AND 8 TO 12
INLAND. SOME LIGHT ICING IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST AS WELL. FOR
LONG ISLAND AND NYC...THESE ACCUMULATIONS ARE A TOTAL. THE ACTUAL
AMOUNTS COULD BE LOWER DUE TO RAIN/FREEZING RAIN CHANGEOVER.

FOR THE COAST...SNOW TO BRIEF PD OF RAIN/FZRA AND IP...BEFORE
CHANGING BACK TO SNOW MONDAY AFTN.

INTERIOR...MAINLY SNOW WITH A PERIOD OF SLEET MIXED IN MONDAY MORNING.

TIMING FOR HEAVIEST PRECIP WOULD BE MIDNIGHT THROUGH ABOUT NOON OR
SO MONDAY.

AFTER COLLAB WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS
BEEN POSTED. START TIME 00Z MONDAY THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY. THIS CAN
BE FINE TUNED AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT.

OF COURSE ANY SHIFT IN TRACK NORTH OR SOUTH WILL MAKE A BIG
DIFFERENCE AS OUR AREA WILL BE DEALING WITH THE RAIN/SNOW
LINE...WHICH IS ALWAYS DIFFICULT TO FORECAST.

TEMPS ARE A NAM 2M BLEND WITH GRIDDED MOS. HAND EDITS WERE NEEDED
AS WELL. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE TEENS INLAND TO THE
MID AND UPPER 20S NEAR THE COAST.

ON MONDAY...MID 30S POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST...ERN LI...AND AROUND
20 WELL INLAND. TEMPS DROP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE STORM
PASSES TO THE SE AS COLD AIR RUSHES IN.

AFTER THIS SYSTEM...MONDAY NIGHT UNTIL MIDWEEK...WE WILL BE IN A
QUASI-ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW. A WEAK LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS TUESDAY WITH A LARGER MORE AMPLIFIED SHORTWAVE MOVING
APPROACHING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT AT THE SURFACE APPROACHING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SNOW WITH THIS.

FOR LATE IN THE WEEK...A LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES FAR OFFSHORE...MORE
OFFSHORE WITH THE 12Z ECMWF RUN TODAY...BUT DID NOT WANT TO TOTALLY
MAKE FOR A DRY FORECAST. LEFT IN A CHANCE OF MAINLY SNOW FOR
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THE MODELS HAVE CONVEYED MORE OF A
PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION AND LESS AMPLIFIED THAN BEFORE SO THE LOW IS
NOT THAT STRONG OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRESSURE COULD PROVE TO BE MORE
DOMINANT IN ALLOWING FOR A DRIER FORECAST.

FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES...BELOW NORMAL OVERALL...MAINLY IN 20S EXCEPT
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH LOW TO MID 30S. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO
BE TEENS TO LOWER 20S SUNDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FOR OTHER
PERIODS...LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST AS FOLLOWS...SINGLE DIGITS
TO A LITTLE BELOW ZERO MONDAY NIGHT...SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS
TUESDAY NIGHT...LOW TO MID TEENS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST.

NW WINDS JUST TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG WILL BACK TO AROUND 310 MAG BY
MID-AFTERNOON. WINDS COULD FAVOR LEFT OF 310 MAG AS EARLY AS LATE
AFTN. WIND SPEEDS WILL AVERAGE 15-25 KT WITH 25-35 KT GUSTS THIS
MORNING AND WILL DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT WITH 20-30 KT GUSTS THIS
AFTERNOON. WEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10 KT
TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SUNDAY...VFR. SW WINDS 5-10 KT.
.SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...POTENTIAL HIGH IMPACT DAY. IFR AND SNOW
LIKELY. CHC MIXED PCPN. NE-N G 25-35KT POSSIBLE.
.MONDAY NIGHT...BECOMING VFR AS SNOW COMES TO AN END. N-NW WIND
G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NW GALES OF TO 45 KT ON THE OCEAN WATERS AND UP TO 40 KT ON ALL
OTHER WATERS THIS MORNING...WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF ROUGH SEAS...STRONG WINDS...AND
COLD WATER TEMPS WILL ALSO RESULT IN AT LEAST MODERATE FREEZING
SPRAY TODAY.

GUSTY WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING...THOUGH A FEW 35 KT GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE ON THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WIND
GUSTS LIKELY ON THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS WILL ALSO
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 5 FT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

TRANQUIL CONDS ON THE WATERS AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVERHEAD AND
DEPARTS. ANOTHER LOW APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. CONDS RAMP
UP TO AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS MONDAY AND GALES ARE
LIKELY ON ALL WATERS FOR A PERIOD MONDAY NIGHT.

THESE CONDITIONS GRADUALLY TAPER DOWN EARLY TUESDAY. THE RELATIVELY
MORE QUIET PERIOD LOOKS TO BE LATE TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE COULD BE SOME MARGINAL SCA SEAS ON THE
OUTER OCEAN TUESDAY OF AROUND 5 FT. SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ONCE
AGAIN WITH THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT TOWARDS MIDWEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GENERALLY AROUND 0.8 TO 1.2 INCHES OF LIQUID FORECAST WITH THE
SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. A SNOW AND WINTRY MIX EVENT IS
FORECAST. NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR CTZ009>012.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ069>075-
     078>081-176>179.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NJZ002-004-006-
     103>108.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-
     335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-335-338-
     340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PW
NEAR TERM...PW/NV
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...JM/PW
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...MPS
HYDROLOGY...PW






000
FXUS61 KALY 311450
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
950 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BITTERLY COLD ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS WHICH WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY COLD
WIND CHILLS THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BRIEFLY IN CONTROL
OF OUR WEATHER TO START THE WEEKEND...THEN A CLIPPER LOW SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST
OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW IS EXPECTED SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
     A WIND CHILL WARNING IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM THIS MORNING FOR
NORTHERN HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...

     A WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS UP FOR THE REST OF THE FCST AREA
EXCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS UNTIL 11 AM
THIS MORNING...

AS OF 940 AM EST TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION RANGED FROM 10F TO
10 BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WIND CHILLS ARE STILL
FLIRTING CLOSE TO ADVISORY LEVELS. WE WILL KEEP THE HEADLINES UP
UNTIL 11 AM. PLEASE SEE OUR PUBLIC INFO STATEMENT WITH LOWS TEMPS
AND WIND CHILL READINGS.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY BY THIS AFTERNOON. MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY SKIES AND VERY
COLD CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE 15 TO
20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. OVERALL...DOWNRIGHT FRIGID CONDITIONS
WITH HIGHS ZERO TO 10 ABOVE OVER THE SRN DACKS...SRN GREENS...AND
PARTS OF THE BERKSHIRES. TEENS WILL BE COMMON OVER THE REST OF THE
FCST AREA. THE WINDS SHOULD SLACKEN LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WINTER STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY EVENING
THROUGH MONDAY FOR MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND EXCLUDING THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...

FOR TONIGHT...A FAST MOVING MOISTURE STARVED CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO RACE FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
YORK OVERNIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS TO
THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE FA WITH LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ELSEWHERE.
IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY COLD WITH LOWS RANGING FROM 5 BELOW
ZERO NORTHWEST TO THE 10 ABOVE ZERO SOUTHEAST.

ON SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRETCH ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND IN
THE WAKE OF THE CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WE ARE EXPECTING A DRY DAY.
ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM SO
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHER THAN
SATURDAY...BUT STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH READINGS FROM THE
LOWER TEENS NORTHWEST TO UPPER 20S SOUTHEAST.

ON SUNDAY NIGHT WE ARE EXPECTING SNOW TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE FA
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS AND A
WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR MUCH OF THE FA EXCLUDING
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. WE WILL BE DEALING WITH A PROGRESSIVE
TYPE SYSTEM AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS REMAINS NEUTRAL POSITIVELY
TILTED UNTIL THE SYSTEM IS WELL OFF THE COAST. THE SURFACE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM THE OHIO VALLEY LATE SUNDAY ACROSS THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND PASS SOUTHEAST OF LONG
ISLAND ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE GOOD OVERRUNNING AS
THERE IS PLENTY OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DECENT FRONTOGENESIS AT H7
BTWN 12Z AND 18Z ON MONDAY. IN THE WATCH AREA 7 INCHES OR MORE OF
SNOW IS POSSIBLE...HOWEVER AS WITH SO MANY STORMS THIS WINTER
THERE WILL BE A SHARP CUTOFF ON THE NORTHERN EDGE...THUS THE
REASON THAT THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS WERE LEFT OUT OF THE WATCH AT
THIS TIME. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 10 TO 15
BELOW ZERO NORTHWEST TO THE MID TEENS SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON MONDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTHWEST TO AROUND 20 SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD...

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...IN THE WAKE OF MONDAY/S STORM SYSTEM...THE
COMBINATION OF POTENTIALLY DEEP FRESH SNOW COVER...DECREASING
WIND...AND CLEARING SKIES SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO PLUMMET LATER AT
NIGHT WELL BELOW ZERO IN MOST AREAS...WITH MANY MIN TEMPS POSSIBLY
DIPPING INTO THE -10 TO -20 F RANGE BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY FOR AREAS
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AT THAT TIME...SO
WIND CHILL VALUES SHOULD BE CLOSE TO ACTUAL AIR TEMPS. AFTER THE
BRUTALLY COLD START...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH OCCASIONAL HIGH
CLOUDS PASSING THROUGH. MAX TEMPS ON TUE SHOULD EVENTUALLY REACH THE
LOWER/MID TEENS IN VALLEYS AND SINGLE DIGITS FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

TUE NT-THU...A CLIPPER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY DURING THIS PERIOD. SOME
WARM ADVECTION SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TUE NT INTO EARLY
WED...ESP ACROSS NW AREAS. THEN...ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE REGION LATE WED OR
EARLY THU...PRECEDED AND ACCOMPANIED BY SNOW SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SOME MINOR ACCUMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND
SOUTHERN VT. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE BY LATE
THU. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...BUT WILL MODERATE A BIT IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE INCOMING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH WED MAX
TEMPS POSSIBLY REACHING AROUND OR JUST OVER 30 IN VALLEYS...WITH
MAINLY MID/UPPER 20S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS TUE
NT/WED AM SHOULD FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN MOST AREAS...WITH
SOME SUBZERO MINS POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AND POSSIBLY ACROSS
THE LAKE GEORGE REGION. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT MIN TEMPS OCCUR EARLY
TUE EVE...THEN RISE LATER AT NIGHT AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
ALONG WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. WED NT/THU AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO
THE TEENS IN MOST VALLEYS...WITH SINGLE DIGITS CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. ON THU...MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE TEENS TO
LOWER 20S...BUT MAY FALL IN THE AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION STRENGTHENS.

THU NT-FRI...GENERALLY COLD AND DRY. MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL BELOW
ZERO IN MOST AREAS...AND WITH SOME LINGERING WIND...WIND CHILL
VALUES MAY REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA IN MANY AREAS...AND POSSIBLY
WARNING LEVELS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. FRI MAX
TEMPS SHOULD ONLY REACH THE LOWER/MID TEENS IN VALLEYS...AND SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE STRENGTHENING WELL OFF THE SOUTHEAST
NEW ENGLAND COAST...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION TODAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES LATER TONIGHT.

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ALONG WITH VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE
THROUGH TODAY...WITH JUST A FEW STRATOCU CLOUDS AROUND BY LATE
IN THE DAY. STRATOCU CLOUDS WILL THEN INCREASE SAT EVENING IN
ADVANCE OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE
GREAT LAKES. SOME MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 07Z/SUN AT
KPSF. ELSEWHERE...MOST CIGS WILL BE IN THE 3500-4500 FT AGL
RANGE...BUT THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT MVFR CIGS COULD DEVELOP
AT KALB AND KGFL TOWARD 12Z/SUN.

WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 10-15 KT TODAY...WITH SOME
GUSTS OCCASIONALLY REACHING UP TO 25 KT AT TIMES. WEST WINDS WILL
DECREASE TO UNDER 10 KT AROUND SUNSET AND SHOULD CONTINUE LIGHT
FROM THE WEST LATER SAT NT.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SN.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SN.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM LATE SUNDAY EVENING INTO
MONDAY WITH MODERATE TO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. ANY
CHANGE IN THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THE STORM WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT
ON THE SNOWFALL FORECAST.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES
AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR CTZ001-013.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR CTZ001-
     013.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ038>041-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     NYZ038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
     WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ032-033.
MA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MAZ001-025.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MAZ001-
     025.
VT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR VTZ013>015.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/WASULA
NEAR TERM...11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...FRUGIS/KL
HYDROLOGY...11








000
FXUS61 KALY 311450
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
950 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BITTERLY COLD ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS WHICH WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY COLD
WIND CHILLS THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BRIEFLY IN CONTROL
OF OUR WEATHER TO START THE WEEKEND...THEN A CLIPPER LOW SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST
OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW IS EXPECTED SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
     A WIND CHILL WARNING IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM THIS MORNING FOR
NORTHERN HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...

     A WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS UP FOR THE REST OF THE FCST AREA
EXCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS UNTIL 11 AM
THIS MORNING...

AS OF 940 AM EST TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION RANGED FROM 10F TO
10 BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WIND CHILLS ARE STILL
FLIRTING CLOSE TO ADVISORY LEVELS. WE WILL KEEP THE HEADLINES UP
UNTIL 11 AM. PLEASE SEE OUR PUBLIC INFO STATEMENT WITH LOWS TEMPS
AND WIND CHILL READINGS.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY BY THIS AFTERNOON. MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY SKIES AND VERY
COLD CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE 15 TO
20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. OVERALL...DOWNRIGHT FRIGID CONDITIONS
WITH HIGHS ZERO TO 10 ABOVE OVER THE SRN DACKS...SRN GREENS...AND
PARTS OF THE BERKSHIRES. TEENS WILL BE COMMON OVER THE REST OF THE
FCST AREA. THE WINDS SHOULD SLACKEN LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WINTER STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY EVENING
THROUGH MONDAY FOR MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND EXCLUDING THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...

FOR TONIGHT...A FAST MOVING MOISTURE STARVED CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO RACE FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
YORK OVERNIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS TO
THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE FA WITH LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ELSEWHERE.
IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY COLD WITH LOWS RANGING FROM 5 BELOW
ZERO NORTHWEST TO THE 10 ABOVE ZERO SOUTHEAST.

ON SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRETCH ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND IN
THE WAKE OF THE CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WE ARE EXPECTING A DRY DAY.
ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM SO
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHER THAN
SATURDAY...BUT STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH READINGS FROM THE
LOWER TEENS NORTHWEST TO UPPER 20S SOUTHEAST.

ON SUNDAY NIGHT WE ARE EXPECTING SNOW TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE FA
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS AND A
WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR MUCH OF THE FA EXCLUDING
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. WE WILL BE DEALING WITH A PROGRESSIVE
TYPE SYSTEM AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS REMAINS NEUTRAL POSITIVELY
TILTED UNTIL THE SYSTEM IS WELL OFF THE COAST. THE SURFACE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM THE OHIO VALLEY LATE SUNDAY ACROSS THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND PASS SOUTHEAST OF LONG
ISLAND ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE GOOD OVERRUNNING AS
THERE IS PLENTY OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DECENT FRONTOGENESIS AT H7
BTWN 12Z AND 18Z ON MONDAY. IN THE WATCH AREA 7 INCHES OR MORE OF
SNOW IS POSSIBLE...HOWEVER AS WITH SO MANY STORMS THIS WINTER
THERE WILL BE A SHARP CUTOFF ON THE NORTHERN EDGE...THUS THE
REASON THAT THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS WERE LEFT OUT OF THE WATCH AT
THIS TIME. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 10 TO 15
BELOW ZERO NORTHWEST TO THE MID TEENS SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON MONDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTHWEST TO AROUND 20 SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD...

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...IN THE WAKE OF MONDAY/S STORM SYSTEM...THE
COMBINATION OF POTENTIALLY DEEP FRESH SNOW COVER...DECREASING
WIND...AND CLEARING SKIES SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO PLUMMET LATER AT
NIGHT WELL BELOW ZERO IN MOST AREAS...WITH MANY MIN TEMPS POSSIBLY
DIPPING INTO THE -10 TO -20 F RANGE BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY FOR AREAS
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AT THAT TIME...SO
WIND CHILL VALUES SHOULD BE CLOSE TO ACTUAL AIR TEMPS. AFTER THE
BRUTALLY COLD START...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH OCCASIONAL HIGH
CLOUDS PASSING THROUGH. MAX TEMPS ON TUE SHOULD EVENTUALLY REACH THE
LOWER/MID TEENS IN VALLEYS AND SINGLE DIGITS FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

TUE NT-THU...A CLIPPER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY DURING THIS PERIOD. SOME
WARM ADVECTION SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TUE NT INTO EARLY
WED...ESP ACROSS NW AREAS. THEN...ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE REGION LATE WED OR
EARLY THU...PRECEDED AND ACCOMPANIED BY SNOW SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SOME MINOR ACCUMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND
SOUTHERN VT. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE BY LATE
THU. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...BUT WILL MODERATE A BIT IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE INCOMING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH WED MAX
TEMPS POSSIBLY REACHING AROUND OR JUST OVER 30 IN VALLEYS...WITH
MAINLY MID/UPPER 20S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS TUE
NT/WED AM SHOULD FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN MOST AREAS...WITH
SOME SUBZERO MINS POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AND POSSIBLY ACROSS
THE LAKE GEORGE REGION. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT MIN TEMPS OCCUR EARLY
TUE EVE...THEN RISE LATER AT NIGHT AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
ALONG WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. WED NT/THU AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO
THE TEENS IN MOST VALLEYS...WITH SINGLE DIGITS CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. ON THU...MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE TEENS TO
LOWER 20S...BUT MAY FALL IN THE AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION STRENGTHENS.

THU NT-FRI...GENERALLY COLD AND DRY. MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL BELOW
ZERO IN MOST AREAS...AND WITH SOME LINGERING WIND...WIND CHILL
VALUES MAY REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA IN MANY AREAS...AND POSSIBLY
WARNING LEVELS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. FRI MAX
TEMPS SHOULD ONLY REACH THE LOWER/MID TEENS IN VALLEYS...AND SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE STRENGTHENING WELL OFF THE SOUTHEAST
NEW ENGLAND COAST...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION TODAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES LATER TONIGHT.

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ALONG WITH VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE
THROUGH TODAY...WITH JUST A FEW STRATOCU CLOUDS AROUND BY LATE
IN THE DAY. STRATOCU CLOUDS WILL THEN INCREASE SAT EVENING IN
ADVANCE OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE
GREAT LAKES. SOME MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 07Z/SUN AT
KPSF. ELSEWHERE...MOST CIGS WILL BE IN THE 3500-4500 FT AGL
RANGE...BUT THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT MVFR CIGS COULD DEVELOP
AT KALB AND KGFL TOWARD 12Z/SUN.

WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 10-15 KT TODAY...WITH SOME
GUSTS OCCASIONALLY REACHING UP TO 25 KT AT TIMES. WEST WINDS WILL
DECREASE TO UNDER 10 KT AROUND SUNSET AND SHOULD CONTINUE LIGHT
FROM THE WEST LATER SAT NT.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SN.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SN.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM LATE SUNDAY EVENING INTO
MONDAY WITH MODERATE TO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. ANY
CHANGE IN THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THE STORM WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT
ON THE SNOWFALL FORECAST.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES
AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR CTZ001-013.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR CTZ001-
     013.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ038>041-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     NYZ038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
     WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ032-033.
MA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MAZ001-025.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MAZ001-
     025.
VT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR VTZ013>015.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/WASULA
NEAR TERM...11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...FRUGIS/KL
HYDROLOGY...11








000
FXUS61 KALY 311450
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
950 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BITTERLY COLD ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS WHICH WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY COLD
WIND CHILLS THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BRIEFLY IN CONTROL
OF OUR WEATHER TO START THE WEEKEND...THEN A CLIPPER LOW SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST
OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW IS EXPECTED SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
     A WIND CHILL WARNING IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM THIS MORNING FOR
NORTHERN HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...

     A WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS UP FOR THE REST OF THE FCST AREA
EXCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS UNTIL 11 AM
THIS MORNING...

AS OF 940 AM EST TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION RANGED FROM 10F TO
10 BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WIND CHILLS ARE STILL
FLIRTING CLOSE TO ADVISORY LEVELS. WE WILL KEEP THE HEADLINES UP
UNTIL 11 AM. PLEASE SEE OUR PUBLIC INFO STATEMENT WITH LOWS TEMPS
AND WIND CHILL READINGS.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY BY THIS AFTERNOON. MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY SKIES AND VERY
COLD CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE 15 TO
20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. OVERALL...DOWNRIGHT FRIGID CONDITIONS
WITH HIGHS ZERO TO 10 ABOVE OVER THE SRN DACKS...SRN GREENS...AND
PARTS OF THE BERKSHIRES. TEENS WILL BE COMMON OVER THE REST OF THE
FCST AREA. THE WINDS SHOULD SLACKEN LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WINTER STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY EVENING
THROUGH MONDAY FOR MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND EXCLUDING THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...

FOR TONIGHT...A FAST MOVING MOISTURE STARVED CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO RACE FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
YORK OVERNIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS TO
THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE FA WITH LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ELSEWHERE.
IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY COLD WITH LOWS RANGING FROM 5 BELOW
ZERO NORTHWEST TO THE 10 ABOVE ZERO SOUTHEAST.

ON SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRETCH ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND IN
THE WAKE OF THE CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WE ARE EXPECTING A DRY DAY.
ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM SO
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHER THAN
SATURDAY...BUT STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH READINGS FROM THE
LOWER TEENS NORTHWEST TO UPPER 20S SOUTHEAST.

ON SUNDAY NIGHT WE ARE EXPECTING SNOW TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE FA
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS AND A
WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR MUCH OF THE FA EXCLUDING
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. WE WILL BE DEALING WITH A PROGRESSIVE
TYPE SYSTEM AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS REMAINS NEUTRAL POSITIVELY
TILTED UNTIL THE SYSTEM IS WELL OFF THE COAST. THE SURFACE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM THE OHIO VALLEY LATE SUNDAY ACROSS THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND PASS SOUTHEAST OF LONG
ISLAND ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE GOOD OVERRUNNING AS
THERE IS PLENTY OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DECENT FRONTOGENESIS AT H7
BTWN 12Z AND 18Z ON MONDAY. IN THE WATCH AREA 7 INCHES OR MORE OF
SNOW IS POSSIBLE...HOWEVER AS WITH SO MANY STORMS THIS WINTER
THERE WILL BE A SHARP CUTOFF ON THE NORTHERN EDGE...THUS THE
REASON THAT THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS WERE LEFT OUT OF THE WATCH AT
THIS TIME. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 10 TO 15
BELOW ZERO NORTHWEST TO THE MID TEENS SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON MONDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTHWEST TO AROUND 20 SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD...

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...IN THE WAKE OF MONDAY/S STORM SYSTEM...THE
COMBINATION OF POTENTIALLY DEEP FRESH SNOW COVER...DECREASING
WIND...AND CLEARING SKIES SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO PLUMMET LATER AT
NIGHT WELL BELOW ZERO IN MOST AREAS...WITH MANY MIN TEMPS POSSIBLY
DIPPING INTO THE -10 TO -20 F RANGE BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY FOR AREAS
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AT THAT TIME...SO
WIND CHILL VALUES SHOULD BE CLOSE TO ACTUAL AIR TEMPS. AFTER THE
BRUTALLY COLD START...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH OCCASIONAL HIGH
CLOUDS PASSING THROUGH. MAX TEMPS ON TUE SHOULD EVENTUALLY REACH THE
LOWER/MID TEENS IN VALLEYS AND SINGLE DIGITS FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

TUE NT-THU...A CLIPPER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY DURING THIS PERIOD. SOME
WARM ADVECTION SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TUE NT INTO EARLY
WED...ESP ACROSS NW AREAS. THEN...ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE REGION LATE WED OR
EARLY THU...PRECEDED AND ACCOMPANIED BY SNOW SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SOME MINOR ACCUMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND
SOUTHERN VT. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE BY LATE
THU. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...BUT WILL MODERATE A BIT IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE INCOMING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH WED MAX
TEMPS POSSIBLY REACHING AROUND OR JUST OVER 30 IN VALLEYS...WITH
MAINLY MID/UPPER 20S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS TUE
NT/WED AM SHOULD FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN MOST AREAS...WITH
SOME SUBZERO MINS POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AND POSSIBLY ACROSS
THE LAKE GEORGE REGION. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT MIN TEMPS OCCUR EARLY
TUE EVE...THEN RISE LATER AT NIGHT AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
ALONG WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. WED NT/THU AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO
THE TEENS IN MOST VALLEYS...WITH SINGLE DIGITS CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. ON THU...MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE TEENS TO
LOWER 20S...BUT MAY FALL IN THE AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION STRENGTHENS.

THU NT-FRI...GENERALLY COLD AND DRY. MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL BELOW
ZERO IN MOST AREAS...AND WITH SOME LINGERING WIND...WIND CHILL
VALUES MAY REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA IN MANY AREAS...AND POSSIBLY
WARNING LEVELS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. FRI MAX
TEMPS SHOULD ONLY REACH THE LOWER/MID TEENS IN VALLEYS...AND SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE STRENGTHENING WELL OFF THE SOUTHEAST
NEW ENGLAND COAST...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION TODAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES LATER TONIGHT.

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ALONG WITH VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE
THROUGH TODAY...WITH JUST A FEW STRATOCU CLOUDS AROUND BY LATE
IN THE DAY. STRATOCU CLOUDS WILL THEN INCREASE SAT EVENING IN
ADVANCE OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE
GREAT LAKES. SOME MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 07Z/SUN AT
KPSF. ELSEWHERE...MOST CIGS WILL BE IN THE 3500-4500 FT AGL
RANGE...BUT THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT MVFR CIGS COULD DEVELOP
AT KALB AND KGFL TOWARD 12Z/SUN.

WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 10-15 KT TODAY...WITH SOME
GUSTS OCCASIONALLY REACHING UP TO 25 KT AT TIMES. WEST WINDS WILL
DECREASE TO UNDER 10 KT AROUND SUNSET AND SHOULD CONTINUE LIGHT
FROM THE WEST LATER SAT NT.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SN.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SN.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM LATE SUNDAY EVENING INTO
MONDAY WITH MODERATE TO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. ANY
CHANGE IN THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THE STORM WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT
ON THE SNOWFALL FORECAST.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES
AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR CTZ001-013.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR CTZ001-
     013.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ038>041-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     NYZ038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
     WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ032-033.
MA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MAZ001-025.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MAZ001-
     025.
VT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR VTZ013>015.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/WASULA
NEAR TERM...11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...FRUGIS/KL
HYDROLOGY...11








000
FXUS61 KALY 311450
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
950 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BITTERLY COLD ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS WHICH WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY COLD
WIND CHILLS THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BRIEFLY IN CONTROL
OF OUR WEATHER TO START THE WEEKEND...THEN A CLIPPER LOW SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST
OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW IS EXPECTED SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
     A WIND CHILL WARNING IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM THIS MORNING FOR
NORTHERN HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...

     A WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS UP FOR THE REST OF THE FCST AREA
EXCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS UNTIL 11 AM
THIS MORNING...

AS OF 940 AM EST TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION RANGED FROM 10F TO
10 BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WIND CHILLS ARE STILL
FLIRTING CLOSE TO ADVISORY LEVELS. WE WILL KEEP THE HEADLINES UP
UNTIL 11 AM. PLEASE SEE OUR PUBLIC INFO STATEMENT WITH LOWS TEMPS
AND WIND CHILL READINGS.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY BY THIS AFTERNOON. MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY SKIES AND VERY
COLD CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE 15 TO
20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. OVERALL...DOWNRIGHT FRIGID CONDITIONS
WITH HIGHS ZERO TO 10 ABOVE OVER THE SRN DACKS...SRN GREENS...AND
PARTS OF THE BERKSHIRES. TEENS WILL BE COMMON OVER THE REST OF THE
FCST AREA. THE WINDS SHOULD SLACKEN LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WINTER STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY EVENING
THROUGH MONDAY FOR MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND EXCLUDING THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...

FOR TONIGHT...A FAST MOVING MOISTURE STARVED CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO RACE FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
YORK OVERNIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS TO
THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE FA WITH LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ELSEWHERE.
IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY COLD WITH LOWS RANGING FROM 5 BELOW
ZERO NORTHWEST TO THE 10 ABOVE ZERO SOUTHEAST.

ON SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRETCH ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND IN
THE WAKE OF THE CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WE ARE EXPECTING A DRY DAY.
ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM SO
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHER THAN
SATURDAY...BUT STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH READINGS FROM THE
LOWER TEENS NORTHWEST TO UPPER 20S SOUTHEAST.

ON SUNDAY NIGHT WE ARE EXPECTING SNOW TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE FA
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS AND A
WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR MUCH OF THE FA EXCLUDING
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. WE WILL BE DEALING WITH A PROGRESSIVE
TYPE SYSTEM AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS REMAINS NEUTRAL POSITIVELY
TILTED UNTIL THE SYSTEM IS WELL OFF THE COAST. THE SURFACE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM THE OHIO VALLEY LATE SUNDAY ACROSS THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND PASS SOUTHEAST OF LONG
ISLAND ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE GOOD OVERRUNNING AS
THERE IS PLENTY OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DECENT FRONTOGENESIS AT H7
BTWN 12Z AND 18Z ON MONDAY. IN THE WATCH AREA 7 INCHES OR MORE OF
SNOW IS POSSIBLE...HOWEVER AS WITH SO MANY STORMS THIS WINTER
THERE WILL BE A SHARP CUTOFF ON THE NORTHERN EDGE...THUS THE
REASON THAT THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS WERE LEFT OUT OF THE WATCH AT
THIS TIME. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 10 TO 15
BELOW ZERO NORTHWEST TO THE MID TEENS SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON MONDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTHWEST TO AROUND 20 SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD...

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...IN THE WAKE OF MONDAY/S STORM SYSTEM...THE
COMBINATION OF POTENTIALLY DEEP FRESH SNOW COVER...DECREASING
WIND...AND CLEARING SKIES SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO PLUMMET LATER AT
NIGHT WELL BELOW ZERO IN MOST AREAS...WITH MANY MIN TEMPS POSSIBLY
DIPPING INTO THE -10 TO -20 F RANGE BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY FOR AREAS
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AT THAT TIME...SO
WIND CHILL VALUES SHOULD BE CLOSE TO ACTUAL AIR TEMPS. AFTER THE
BRUTALLY COLD START...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH OCCASIONAL HIGH
CLOUDS PASSING THROUGH. MAX TEMPS ON TUE SHOULD EVENTUALLY REACH THE
LOWER/MID TEENS IN VALLEYS AND SINGLE DIGITS FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

TUE NT-THU...A CLIPPER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY DURING THIS PERIOD. SOME
WARM ADVECTION SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TUE NT INTO EARLY
WED...ESP ACROSS NW AREAS. THEN...ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE REGION LATE WED OR
EARLY THU...PRECEDED AND ACCOMPANIED BY SNOW SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SOME MINOR ACCUMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND
SOUTHERN VT. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE BY LATE
THU. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...BUT WILL MODERATE A BIT IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE INCOMING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH WED MAX
TEMPS POSSIBLY REACHING AROUND OR JUST OVER 30 IN VALLEYS...WITH
MAINLY MID/UPPER 20S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS TUE
NT/WED AM SHOULD FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN MOST AREAS...WITH
SOME SUBZERO MINS POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AND POSSIBLY ACROSS
THE LAKE GEORGE REGION. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT MIN TEMPS OCCUR EARLY
TUE EVE...THEN RISE LATER AT NIGHT AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
ALONG WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. WED NT/THU AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO
THE TEENS IN MOST VALLEYS...WITH SINGLE DIGITS CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. ON THU...MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE TEENS TO
LOWER 20S...BUT MAY FALL IN THE AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION STRENGTHENS.

THU NT-FRI...GENERALLY COLD AND DRY. MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL BELOW
ZERO IN MOST AREAS...AND WITH SOME LINGERING WIND...WIND CHILL
VALUES MAY REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA IN MANY AREAS...AND POSSIBLY
WARNING LEVELS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. FRI MAX
TEMPS SHOULD ONLY REACH THE LOWER/MID TEENS IN VALLEYS...AND SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE STRENGTHENING WELL OFF THE SOUTHEAST
NEW ENGLAND COAST...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION TODAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES LATER TONIGHT.

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ALONG WITH VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE
THROUGH TODAY...WITH JUST A FEW STRATOCU CLOUDS AROUND BY LATE
IN THE DAY. STRATOCU CLOUDS WILL THEN INCREASE SAT EVENING IN
ADVANCE OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE
GREAT LAKES. SOME MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 07Z/SUN AT
KPSF. ELSEWHERE...MOST CIGS WILL BE IN THE 3500-4500 FT AGL
RANGE...BUT THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT MVFR CIGS COULD DEVELOP
AT KALB AND KGFL TOWARD 12Z/SUN.

WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 10-15 KT TODAY...WITH SOME
GUSTS OCCASIONALLY REACHING UP TO 25 KT AT TIMES. WEST WINDS WILL
DECREASE TO UNDER 10 KT AROUND SUNSET AND SHOULD CONTINUE LIGHT
FROM THE WEST LATER SAT NT.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SN.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SN.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM LATE SUNDAY EVENING INTO
MONDAY WITH MODERATE TO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. ANY
CHANGE IN THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THE STORM WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT
ON THE SNOWFALL FORECAST.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES
AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR CTZ001-013.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR CTZ001-
     013.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ038>041-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     NYZ038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
     WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ032-033.
MA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MAZ001-025.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MAZ001-
     025.
VT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR VTZ013>015.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/WASULA
NEAR TERM...11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...FRUGIS/KL
HYDROLOGY...11








000
FXUS61 KBOX 311206
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
706 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BLUSTERY AND VERY COLD CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY EVENING WITH POTENTIALLY HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATION AND GUSTY
WINDS. A FRIGID AIRMASS WILL FOLLOW MONDAY NIGHT WITH DANGEROUSLY
COLD WIND CHILLS. MODERATING TEMPS WEDNESDAY THEN VERY COLD
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. A COASTAL STORM
WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE WEEK BUT WILL
HAVE TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
650 AM UPDATE...
LIGHT TO BRIEFLY MODERATE SNOW FALLING ACROSS E MA...STEADIEST
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AT 1130Z. KBOX 88D RADAR STILL
INDICATING PATCHES OF STEADY SNOW AS FAR W AS KBED-KTAN. STILL
LIGHTLY SNOWING HERE AT KBOX WITH A COATING /AT LEAST/ ON THE
GROUND SINCE MIDNIGHT. WILL GET OUR 6 HR SNOWFALL AT 7 AM. WILL
NEED TO MONITOR THE TIMING ON THIS CLOSELY. LOW PRES APPEARS TO BE
SPINNING ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE WITH NOT MUCH EASTWARD
PROGRESSION SEEN ON CURRENT IR SATELLITE AT LEAST FOR NOW. SHOULD
START MOVING E THIS MORNING AS SNOW TAPERS OFF FROM W-E.

NOTING N-NW WINDS UP TO 40-50 KT AT 1-2KFT ON THE KBOX VAD WIND
PROFILER...AND GETTING CONFIRMATION AT KORH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KT
AT 11Z PLUS A SPOTTER IN BRISTOL CT AT 800 FT AGL REPORTING A
GUST TO 51 MPH OVERNIGHT. GUSTS UP TO 30-35 KT REPORTED ACROSS E
MA/RI LAST HOUR AS WELL. THIS IS MATCHING UP WELL WITH OUR WIND
ADVISORY.

TEMPS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ACROSS THE REGION AT 6
AM BUT FEELING MUCH COLDER WITH THE WIND CHILL WORKED IN...DOWN
TO -10 AT KORE AND -9 AT KBVY.

HAVE UPDATED NEAR TERM FORECAST TO BRING CONDITIONS CURRENT AND
INCORPORATE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MID LEVEL LOW CLOSING OFF NEAR CAPE COD WITH BANDS OF LIGHT
SNOW ROTATING BACK ACROSS E MA. HIGHER REFLECTIVITIES ARE
DEVELOPING ON RADAR ACROSS E COASTAL MA AND THE ADJACENT WATERS
INDICATING STEADIER SNOW. MAIN FOCUS FOR MINOR ACCUM THROUGH MID
MORNING WILL BE ACROSS CAPE ANN AND THE OUTER CAPE WHERE 1-2
INCHES IS POSSIBLE. LOW PROB FOR ISOLD 3 INCH AMOUNTS OUTER CAPE.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS E MA...MAINLY A COATING TO ONE HALF INCH.

AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL LINGER ACROSS E MA THIS MORNING...
EXITING THE OUTER CAPE BY MIDDAY. CLEARING SKIES DEVELOP ACROSS E
NEW ENG LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH FULL SUNSHINE
ACROSS THE WEST.

STRONG NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY. GUSTS 35-45 MPH EXPECTED WITH
A FEW GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH NEAR THE COAST.

BITTER COLD WIND CHILLS DOWN TO -10 TO -20 THIS MORNING ACROSS
CENTRAL AND W NEW ENG AND -5 TO -10 IN THE COASTAL PLAIN.
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS ONLY IN THE TEENS MOST LOCATIONS BUT WITH THE
STRONG WINDS...WIND CHILLS WILL ONLY RECOVER TO -5 TO +5.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...

WEAK SFC RIDGE MOVES INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF ARCTIC FRONT
DROPPING INTO N NEW ENG. THIS WILL RESULT IN GRADUAL DIMINISHING
WINDS TONIGHT...BUT REMAINING RATHER GUSTY OVER THE CAPE/ISLANDS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS
WITH TEENS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND CAPE/ISLANDS.

SUNDAY...

ARCTIC FRONT WILL PUSH S INTO SNE REACHING THE S COAST BY EVENING.
SUNSHINE WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON AS
OVERRUNNING MID/HIGH CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE REGION...ALONG WITH
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME LOWER CLOUDS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES.
BUT REMAINING DRY THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE
MID/UPPER 20S BUT DROPPING BACK INTO THE TEENS TOWARD EVENING
ACROSS N ZONES AS ARCTIC AIR BEGINS TO DRAIN SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* LOW PRES PASSES S OF NEW ENGLAND SUN NIGHT AND MON...COLD AIR IN
  PLACE SIGNALS PLOWABLE SNOWFALL FOR THE REGION
* WINTER STORM WATCH EXTENDED TO COVER ENTIRE REGION
* AS LOW EXITS MON NIGHT...MORE ARCTIC AIR AND STRONG WINDS MOVE
  IN...WIND CHILL HEADLINES LIKELY
* RECORD LOWS POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING WITH HIGH PRES
* ANOTHER LOW POSSIBLE WED OR THU...LOW CONFIDENCE CONTINUES

OVERVIEW...

MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SIGNAL PROGRESSIVE PATTERN BUT
GENERAL LONG WAVE TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH MOST OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SEVERAL H5 SHORT WAVES IN NORTHERN STREAM FLOW
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. VERY COLD AIR WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN TEMPS WILL RISE CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS
AROUND MID WEEK. ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT AND POSSIBLE LOW PRESSURE MAY
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION AROUND WED OR THU.

DETAILS...

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
VIGOROUS H5 SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRES MOVE OUT
OF THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID ATLC COAST BY 12Z MON. BY THEN...
THOUGH...EXCELLENT OVERRUNNING IN PLACE WITH DEEP MOISTURE FEED
WORKING INTO THE REGION. WITH COLD AIR ALREADY IN PLACE...AND HIGH
PRES MOVING IN TANDEM ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA... WILL NOT BE
DISPLACED. EXPECT LIGHT SNOW TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT.

AS THE LOW MOVES OFF THE MID ATLC COAST...WILL SEE STRONG
INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES ALONG 40N LATITUDE
BEFORE TURNING NE NEAR THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK MON EVENING.
EXCELLENT DENDRITIC GROWTH WITH ARCTIC AIRMASS...SO EXPECT PERIODS
OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL ESPECIALLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH
MIDDAY AS THE LOW PASSES TO THE S. LOOKS LIKE THE HEAVIEST
SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR S OF THE MASS PIKE...BUT THE ENTIRE REGION
WILL SEE A GOOD AMOUNT OF SNOWFALL. ONLY QUESTION AT THIS POINT
WILL BE WHETHER A PIECE OF SOMEWHAT MILDER AIR ALOFT WILL WORK
INTO THE OUTER CAPE AND ISLANDS WHICH COULD CAUSE A BRIEF MIX WITH
SLEET OR EVEN RAIN MON MORNING OR MIDDAY. ONCE THE LOW
PASSES...THOUGH...WILL CHANGE QUICKLY BACK TO SNOW THERE DURING
THE AFTERNOON.

WITH THE SNOW ARRIVING SUNDAY NIGHT...CAN EXPECT AT LEAST LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BY THE TIME OF THE START OF THE MONDAY MORNING
COMMUTE. EXPECT A ROUGH COMMUTE IF ANYONE EVEN VENTURES OUT OF
DOORS MONDAY MORNING. VSBYS WILL ALSO BE REDUCED AS WELL.

WITH ALL MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT...AND QPF TOTALS ON ORDER
OF 0.6 TO 1.1 INCHES FROM N-S ACROSS THE REGION AND COLD AIRMASS
IN PLACE...WILL SEE SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS AROUND 13:1 OR SO PRETTY
MUCH EVERYWHERE EXCEPT AROUND 10:1 ON THE OUTER CAPE AND THE
ISLANDS. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE UPDATED THE WINTER STORM WATCH
TO INCLUDE THE ENTIRE REGION...ADDING NORTHERN MASSACHUSETTS AND
THE ISLANDS TO THE WATCH.

THE LOW WILL INTENSIFY RAPIDLY AS IT EXITS LATE MON AND MON NIGHT.
INCREASING PRES GRADIENT WILL CAUSE N-NW WINDS TO INCREASE...WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30-40 MPH OR HIGHER ESPECIALLY ALONG THE E COAST.

AS FOR COASTAL FLOODING...IT APPEARS THAT THE STRONGER N-NE WINDS
WILL OCCUR AROUND THE TIME OF LOW TIDE MONDAY AFTERNOON. COULD SEE
UP SURGE TO ONE OR TWO FEET. THE SURGE IS NOT COINCIDING WITH
HIGH TIDE...SO WE DO NOT EXPECT ISSUES AT THIS TIME. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS ASPECT CLOSELY THOUGH.

TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WILL PLUMMET AS ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC
AIR WORKS IN. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO COME CLOSE TO RECORD LOWS
DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS OF TUE MORNING. MAINLY LOCATIONS WILL
LIKELY SEE READINGS BELOW ZERO...EXCEPT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S
COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. PLEASE SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION
BELOW FOR THE RECORDS.

TUESDAY...
HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS. WILL SEE BLUSTERY CONDITIONS EARLY
TUE...BUT COLD AIR REMAINS IN PLACE. EXPECT HIGHS ONLY IN THE
TEENS...RANGING TO AROUND 20 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S COAST.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...
THE HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE ON WED...WITH A RETURN FLOW OF MILDER
AIR. TEMPS WED INTO THU MAY ACTUALLY REBOUND CLOSE TO SEASONAL
NORMALS WITH LIGHT SW WINDS.

BIG QUESTION AT THIS POINT WILL BE THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT
OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA ALONG WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRES. NOT
A LOT OF CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT DUE TO WIDE MODEL VARIANCE. FOR
NOW...HAVE MENTIONED CHANCE OF PRECIP...MAINLY LIGHT SNOW...AS
COLD FRONT PASSES AROUND WED NIGHT OR EARLY THU.

FRIDAY...
ANOTHER HIGH LOOKS TO BUILD E WITH MORE COLD AIR...BUT TIMING IS
UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM.../THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...N-S BAND OF -SN/SN WITH MVFR-LIFR CONDITIONS ACROSS E MA
WITH LOWEST CONDITIONS ON THE MID AND OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET.
EXPECT BAND TO MOVE SLOWLY E...EXITING E MA BY AROUND 14Z...THEN
PUSHING OFF THE OUTER CAPE BY AROUND MIDDAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
VFR WITH CLEARING SKIES. NW GUSTS TO 30-40 KT.

TONIGHT...VFR WITH GRADUAL DIMINISHING WIND.

SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR...BUT LOW PROB FOR AREAS OF MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MVFR VSBYS DUE TO LIGHT SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW EARLY THIS MORNING. IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFT 12Z.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VFR TO START...THEN QUICKLY DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TO IFR-
VLIFR WITH SNOW MOVING IN FROM W-E. PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE
MONDAY MORNING INTO MIDDAY. BLUSTERY NE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO
AROUND 30 KT STARTING MON AFTERNOON THEN VEER TO NW BUT REMAIN
GUSTY MON NIGHT. CONDITIONS IMPROVE FROM W-E MON NIGHT...BUT LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS MAY LINGER ALONG E COAST THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. NW WIND GUSTING TO 25-30
KT EARLY THEN SHOULD DIMINISH.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR THROUGH MIDDAY. MAY SEE MVFR
CONDITIONS MOVE INTO N MA DURING THE AFTERNOON IN SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...GALE CENTER LIFTS INTO THE MARITIMES WITH NW GALES
CONTINUING OVER THE WATERS. GUSTS TO 40-45 KT LIKELY WITH
MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY LIKELY. SNOW SHOWERS REDUCE VSBY OVER
EASTERN MA WATERS IN THE MORNING.

TONIGHT...GALE CENTER PULLS FARTHER AWAY WITH WINDS DIMINISHING
BELOW GALE 00-06Z...BUT GUSTS 25-30 KT WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.
MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY LIKELY CONTINUING...ESPECIALLY E MA
COASTAL WATERS.

SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY. SUB
SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOP OVER THE S COASTAL WATERS DURING THE
MORNING...BUT SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE OUTER
EASTERN WATERS. LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY WILL PERSIST.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

SUNDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS BACK FROM NW TO N DURING THE NIGHT...GUSTS INCREASING TO
AROUND 20 KT ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS. VSBYS LOWER IN
DEVELOPING LIGHT SNOW FROM W-E.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT INCREASING E-NE WINDS...GUSTING UP TO 35-40 KT LATE MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. SEAS BUILDING AS HIGH AS 14-17 FT ON THE EASTERN
WATERS AS LOW PRES INTENSIFIES AS IT PASSES S OF THE SOUTHERN
WATERS. WINDS SHIFT TO NW BUT REMAIN GUSTY MON NIGHT. REDUCED
VSBYS IN SNOW...FALLING HEAVILY AT TIMES.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
NW WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST CLOSE TO GALE FORCE THROUGH THE MORNING
THEN WILL DIMINISH BUT REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. SEAS REMAIN
HIGH...UP TO 8-10 FT BUT WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE. WINDS MAY DIMINISH
BELOW SMALL CRAFT TUE NIGHT...BUT SEAS MAY LINGER AROUND 5 FT.

WEDNESDAY....MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS BACK TO SW AND INCREASE...MAY SEE GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KT.
SEAS ALSO REMAIN AROUND 5 FT...MAINLY OVER THE OUTER WATERS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WITH EXTREMELY COLD AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW MONDAY
NIGHT...TEMPERATURES MAY FALL BACK CLOSE TO OR SURPASSING RECORD
LEVELS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AND THAT IS NOT TAKING INTO ACCOUNT
THE STRONG WINDS.

HERE ARE THE RECORD LOWS FOR TUESDAY 2/3...

BOSTON         -5 SET IN 1881
PROVIDENCE     -6 SET IN 1961
WORCESTER      -7 SET IN 1931, 1955 AND 1971
WINDSOR LOCKS  -3 SET IN 1955
BLUE HILL OBS  -7 SET IN 1955

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR CTZ002>004.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR CTZ002-003.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MAZ022>024.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR MAZ002>024-026.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MAZ007-015-016-
     019>021.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MAZ003-004-
     010-011.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MAZ002-
     008-009.
RI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR RIZ008.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR RIZ001>008.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR RIZ005>007.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ231-232-
     250-251.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ231-232-250-251-
     254>256.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ233>235-237.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ233>235-237.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ236.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC
NEAR TERM...KJC/EVT
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...KJC/EVT
MARINE...KJC/EVT
CLIMATE...EVT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 311206
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
706 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BLUSTERY AND VERY COLD CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY EVENING WITH POTENTIALLY HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATION AND GUSTY
WINDS. A FRIGID AIRMASS WILL FOLLOW MONDAY NIGHT WITH DANGEROUSLY
COLD WIND CHILLS. MODERATING TEMPS WEDNESDAY THEN VERY COLD
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. A COASTAL STORM
WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE WEEK BUT WILL
HAVE TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
650 AM UPDATE...
LIGHT TO BRIEFLY MODERATE SNOW FALLING ACROSS E MA...STEADIEST
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AT 1130Z. KBOX 88D RADAR STILL
INDICATING PATCHES OF STEADY SNOW AS FAR W AS KBED-KTAN. STILL
LIGHTLY SNOWING HERE AT KBOX WITH A COATING /AT LEAST/ ON THE
GROUND SINCE MIDNIGHT. WILL GET OUR 6 HR SNOW