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000
FXUS61 KOKX 290448
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1248 AM EDT WED JUN 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will approach from the west this evening, then
slowly cross the Tri-State through Wednesday. Weak high pressure
builds in Wednesday night through Friday. A cold front then
approaches and moves across the area late Friday night and Saturday.
High pressure builds in behind the front from Saturday night through
Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Showers have decreased across the area since last update. They
should continue to do so with the loss of instability. However,
with the cold front in the vicinity, and a humid airmass, there
remains at least a chance for showers through much of the rest of
tonight. Also, added patchy fog to the entire area as light winds
prevents any mixing. Western areas may see conditions improve
before daybreak as the cold front moves through. Winds may
increase just enough behind the front to allow the fog to mix out.
Otherwise, forecast is on track.

For lows tonight, a blend of MAV/MET/ECS guidance and NAM 2-meter
temperatures was used, with values forecast to be a few degrees
above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
Core of 700-500 hPa trough lifts NE into eastern Quebec Wednesday,
taking the best dynamics with it. Best jet forcing will be in the
morning with the region in the right rear quadrant of a 75-80 KT 300
hPa jet and having a 50 KT 500 hPa jet pass over western
portions. However, the mid levels are forecast to be rather dry,
along with a cap centered around 650 hPa, with these likely being
the limiting factors in any convective development. For now have
slight chance pops across the N tier of the CWA Wednesday (area
closest to the best dynamic forcing), mainly E of the Hudson
River, with a dry forecast elsewhere.

Highs Wednesday were based on a blend of MAV/MET/ECS guidance, NAM
2-meter, and a mix down from 950-800 hPa per BUFKIT soundings.
Highs should be around 5 degrees above normal, except near normal
in the immediate NYC Metro area.

The main 700-500 hPa trough axis exits to the east Wednesday
evening, with drier air working in behind it in the low levels, to
go with the already dry air aloft. As a result, expect any cloud
cover to clear out overnight, with decent radiational cooling
setting up. Based on this, lows were weighed towards coolest of
MAV/MET/ECS guidance and NAM 2-meter temperatures at any given
point outside of urban areas. Lows should be near normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Weak high pressure builds across the area on Thursday and Friday. A
cold front will move through the area late on Friday night and into
early Saturday, brining showers and the potential for some
thunderstorms. High pressure builds behind the front Sunday and
remains through the holiday weekend.

Temperatures during the extended period will be near normal for this
time of year, with temperatures during the day in the low to mid 80s
and low temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
An approaching cold front passes through the region late tonight
into Wednesday morning.

Winds will become light and variable until the frontal passage
Wednesday morning. Then winds become more NW and will stay light
with therefore sea breeze formation Wednesday afternoon for
coastal terminals. Though there is more uncertainty with wind
directions Wednesday afternoon with therefore a low confidence
wind forecast that timeframe.

Conditions will be mostly IFR/LIFR into early Wednesday morning.
Highest chances for showers and thunderstorms will be through 06Z
for most NYC terminals as well as those to the N/W. Chances
remain to the east thereafter but mainly for showers with a lower
chance for thunderstorms. After the frontal passage Wednesday,
conditions gradually improve to VFR. Timing of categorical changes
could be 2-4 hours different than forecast.

.OUTLOOK FOR 03Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.Wednesday night through Friday morning...VFR.
.Friday afternoon and night...MVFR or IFR conditions possible in
showers/tstms.
.Saturday and Sunday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Added patchy fog to the ocean and South Shore Bays tonight.
Otherwise, a relaxed pressure gradient over the waters around
Long Island will keep winds at 10 kt or less through Wednesday
night. With no significant swells forecast, seas/waves should be 3
ft or less as well during this time frame.

Winds and seas are forecast to remain below small craft advisory
levels Thursday through the holiday weekend.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
From 1/6-1/2 inch of rain is forecast through tonight, with
locally higher amounts possible mainly west of the Hudson River.
Areas that do experience locally heavy rainfall could experience
minor flooding of urban/poor drainage areas with a very small
chance of localized flash flooding. However, most areas will
receive no hydrologic impact from this rainfall.

No significant rainfall is expected from Wednesday through Friday.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible late Friday night
and into early Saturday. Antecedent conditions are very dry, so
widespread hydrology issues are not expected.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FIG/Maloit
NEAR TERM...JP
SHORT TERM...Maloit
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JMC/FIG/Maloit
HYDROLOGY...FIG/Maloit




000
FXUS61 KOKX 290247
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1047 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will approach from the west this evening, then
slowly cross the Tri-State through Wednesday. Weak high pressure
builds in Wednesday night through Friday. A cold front then
approaches and moves across the area late Friday night and Saturday.
High pressure builds in behind the front from Saturday night through
Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
The forecast has been updated to adjust the probability of
precipitation where thunderstorms are imminent or occurring. An
axis of heavy rainfall appears to be coming together across the
Hudson Valley into northern New Jersey.

The fog bank remains positioned along the south shore of Long
Island into New York City, with reduced visibilities being
reported at John F Kennedy Airport. Will maintain patchy fog in
the forecast for the overnight.

The timing of the entire system has been slowed slightly from the
previous forecast, and the expectation is that the thunderstorms
will hold together slightly longer due to the position of the
upper jet.

For lows tonight, a blend of MAV/MET/ECS guidance and NAM 2-meter
temperatures was used, with values forecast to be a few degrees
above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Core of 700-500 hPa trough lifts NE into eastern Quebec Wednesday,
taking the best dynamics with it. Best jet forcing will be in the
morning with the region in the right rear quadrant of a 75-80 KT 300
hPa jet and having a 50 KT 500 hPa jet pass over western
portions. However, the mid levels are forecast to be rather dry,
along with a cap centered around 650 hPa, with these likely being
the limiting factors in any convective development. For now have
slight chance pops across the N tier of the CWA Wednesday (area
closest to the best dynamic forcing), mainly E of the Hudson
River, with a dry forecast elsewhere.

Highs Wednesday were based on a blend of MAV/MET/ECS guidance, NAM
2-meter, and a mix down from 950-800 hPa per BUFKIT soundings.
Highs should be around 5 degrees above normal, except near normal
in the immediate NYC Metro area.

The main 700-500 hPa trough axis exits to the east Wednesday
evening, with drier air working in behind it in the low levels, to
go with the already dry air aloft. As a result, expect any cloud
cover to clear out overnight, with decent radiational cooling
setting up. Based on this, lows were weighed towards coolest of
MAV/MET/ECS guidance and NAM 2-meter temperatures at any given
point outside of urban areas. Lows should be near normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Weak high pressure builds across the area on Thursday and Friday. A
cold front will move through the area late on Friday night and into
early Saturday, brining showers and the potential for some
thunderstorms. High pressure builds behind the front Sunday and
remains through the holiday weekend.

Temperatures during the extended period will be near normal for this
time of year, with temperatures during the day in the low to mid 80s
and low temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
An approaching cold front passes through the region late tonight
into Wednesday morning.

Winds will become light and variable until the frontal passage
Wednesday morning. Then winds become more NW and will stay light
with therefore sea breeze formation Wednesday afternoon for
coastal terminals. Though there is more uncertainty with wind
directions Wednesday afternoon with therefore a low confidence
wind forecast that timeframe.

Conditions will be mostly IFR/LIFR into early Wednesday morning.
Highest chances for showers and thunderstorms will be through 06Z
for most NYC terminals as well as those to the N/W. Chances
remain to the east thereafter but mainly for showers with a lower
chance for thunderstorms. After the frontal passage Wednesday,
conditions gradually improve to VFR. Timing of categorical changes
could be 2-4 hours different than forecast.

.OUTLOOK FOR 03Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.Wednesday night through Friday morning...VFR.
.Friday afternoon and night...MVFR or IFR conditions possible in
showers/tstms.
.Saturday and Sunday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Added patchy fog to the ocean and South Shore Bays tonight.
Otherwise, a relaxed pressure gradient over the waters around
Long Island will keep winds at 10 kt or less through Wednesday
night. With no significant swells forecast, seas/waves should be 3
ft or less as well during this time frame.

Winds and seas are forecast to remain below small craft advisory
levels Thursday through the holiday weekend.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
From 1/6-1/2 inch of rain is forecast through tonight, with
locally higher amounts possible mainly west of the Hudson River.
Areas that do experience locally heavy rainfall could experience
minor flooding of urban/poor drainage areas with a very small
chance of localized flash flooding. However, most areas will
receive no hydrologic impact from this rainfall.

No significant rainfall is expected from Wednesday through Friday.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible late Friday night
and into early Saturday. Antecedent conditions are very dry, so
widespread hydrology issues are not expected.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FIG/Maloit
NEAR TERM...JMC/Maloit
SHORT TERM...Maloit
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JMC/FIG/Maloit
HYDROLOGY...FIG/Maloit




000
FXUS61 KOKX 290247
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1047 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will approach from the west this evening, then
slowly cross the Tri-State through Wednesday. Weak high pressure
builds in Wednesday night through Friday. A cold front then
approaches and moves across the area late Friday night and Saturday.
High pressure builds in behind the front from Saturday night through
Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
The forecast has been updated to adjust the probability of
precipitation where thunderstorms are imminent or occurring. An
axis of heavy rainfall appears to be coming together across the
Hudson Valley into northern New Jersey.

The fog bank remains positioned along the south shore of Long
Island into New York City, with reduced visibilities being
reported at John F Kennedy Airport. Will maintain patchy fog in
the forecast for the overnight.

The timing of the entire system has been slowed slightly from the
previous forecast, and the expectation is that the thunderstorms
will hold together slightly longer due to the position of the
upper jet.

For lows tonight, a blend of MAV/MET/ECS guidance and NAM 2-meter
temperatures was used, with values forecast to be a few degrees
above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Core of 700-500 hPa trough lifts NE into eastern Quebec Wednesday,
taking the best dynamics with it. Best jet forcing will be in the
morning with the region in the right rear quadrant of a 75-80 KT 300
hPa jet and having a 50 KT 500 hPa jet pass over western
portions. However, the mid levels are forecast to be rather dry,
along with a cap centered around 650 hPa, with these likely being
the limiting factors in any convective development. For now have
slight chance pops across the N tier of the CWA Wednesday (area
closest to the best dynamic forcing), mainly E of the Hudson
River, with a dry forecast elsewhere.

Highs Wednesday were based on a blend of MAV/MET/ECS guidance, NAM
2-meter, and a mix down from 950-800 hPa per BUFKIT soundings.
Highs should be around 5 degrees above normal, except near normal
in the immediate NYC Metro area.

The main 700-500 hPa trough axis exits to the east Wednesday
evening, with drier air working in behind it in the low levels, to
go with the already dry air aloft. As a result, expect any cloud
cover to clear out overnight, with decent radiational cooling
setting up. Based on this, lows were weighed towards coolest of
MAV/MET/ECS guidance and NAM 2-meter temperatures at any given
point outside of urban areas. Lows should be near normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Weak high pressure builds across the area on Thursday and Friday. A
cold front will move through the area late on Friday night and into
early Saturday, brining showers and the potential for some
thunderstorms. High pressure builds behind the front Sunday and
remains through the holiday weekend.

Temperatures during the extended period will be near normal for this
time of year, with temperatures during the day in the low to mid 80s
and low temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
An approaching cold front passes through the region late tonight
into Wednesday morning.

Winds will become light and variable until the frontal passage
Wednesday morning. Then winds become more NW and will stay light
with therefore sea breeze formation Wednesday afternoon for
coastal terminals. Though there is more uncertainty with wind
directions Wednesday afternoon with therefore a low confidence
wind forecast that timeframe.

Conditions will be mostly IFR/LIFR into early Wednesday morning.
Highest chances for showers and thunderstorms will be through 06Z
for most NYC terminals as well as those to the N/W. Chances
remain to the east thereafter but mainly for showers with a lower
chance for thunderstorms. After the frontal passage Wednesday,
conditions gradually improve to VFR. Timing of categorical changes
could be 2-4 hours different than forecast.

.OUTLOOK FOR 03Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.Wednesday night through Friday morning...VFR.
.Friday afternoon and night...MVFR or IFR conditions possible in
showers/tstms.
.Saturday and Sunday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Added patchy fog to the ocean and South Shore Bays tonight.
Otherwise, a relaxed pressure gradient over the waters around
Long Island will keep winds at 10 kt or less through Wednesday
night. With no significant swells forecast, seas/waves should be 3
ft or less as well during this time frame.

Winds and seas are forecast to remain below small craft advisory
levels Thursday through the holiday weekend.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
From 1/6-1/2 inch of rain is forecast through tonight, with
locally higher amounts possible mainly west of the Hudson River.
Areas that do experience locally heavy rainfall could experience
minor flooding of urban/poor drainage areas with a very small
chance of localized flash flooding. However, most areas will
receive no hydrologic impact from this rainfall.

No significant rainfall is expected from Wednesday through Friday.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible late Friday night
and into early Saturday. Antecedent conditions are very dry, so
widespread hydrology issues are not expected.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FIG/Maloit
NEAR TERM...JMC/Maloit
SHORT TERM...Maloit
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JMC/FIG/Maloit
HYDROLOGY...FIG/Maloit



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000
FXUS61 KALY 290210
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
1010 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will slowly move across our region tonight,
resulting in showers and thunderstorms. Some storms may be produce
locally heavy rainfall. A disturbance will move through on
Wednesday with a few more showers and thunderstorms. High pressure
will then build into the region Wednesday night into Thursday
night, bringing dry weather. Another frontal system may bring a
few showers or thunderstorms Friday, before fair and seasonably
warm conditions return for the upcoming weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
The cold front will continue slowly moving east and south, as the
weak wave of low pressure continues to ripple along it. The
strongest thunderstorms are in the mid Hudson Valley through
western New England...with locally heavy rain and some ponding of
water on roadways. Lighter rain is occurring behind the convection
and the back edge of the rain is in the Southern Adirondacks to
Schoharie Valley and eastern Catskills...moving slowly east.

Upper energy is still in the Great lakes and some broken cloud
cover and isolated showers are associated with the upper energy.
So...some breaks in the clouds should occur in areas along and
west of the Hudson Valley through the night but light winds and
wet ground could promote some patchy fog and development of low
clouds.

Some adjustments to the rain chances and the movement of the rain
through tonight to reflect the current radar and satellite trends.
Some other minor modifications to sky cover and temperatures as
well.

Overnight lows will mainly be in the lower 60s, with some 50s
possible across portions of the Adirondacks.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Wednesday, the shortwave currently located across the Great Lakes
will translate east across the region during the midday hours on
Wednesday. Forcing and mid level cooling associated with this
feature should allow for isolated to scattered showers to develop,
with the best chances/coverage across the upper Hudson Valley and
southern VT. Isolated thunderstorms will also be possible in this
region, where forcing will be greatest. Small hail/gusty winds
could occur with any taller convective elements. Showers and
thunderstorms should decrease in areal coverage late Wednesday
afternoon. Expect high temperatures to reach the mid 70s to mid
80s, warmest in valley areas from Albany south and east.

Wednesday night through Thursday night, high pressure will build
in with dry weather and seasonable temperatures.

On Friday, another shortwave will approach from the Great Lakes
region. There remains uncertainty as to the areal extent of any
showers/possible thunderstorms will be associated with this
feature, and will ultimately depend on low level moisture recovery
from the mid Atlantic region. For now, have chances for showers
and thunderstorms Friday afternoon/evening, tapering off Friday
night. Friday high temperatures are forecast to be in the upper
70s to mid 80s, but may be cooler if clouds/showers become more
widespread.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Generally fair and seasonably warm conditions are expected through
the period. We will have to watch for any fast moving upper level
impulses which pass through within a strong mid/upper level
west/northwest flow, which could generate isolated/scattered
showers, especially on Saturday, but for now, have indicated
mainly dry conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Leading line of showers and thunderstorms tracking through the KGFL
and KALB areas through 01Z. Area of intermittent rain behind the
line of convection should occur through about 06Z at KGFL and
KALB...then lingering low level moisture will help keep MVFR
ceilings in the area through much of the night. Some MVFR
visibilities in fog should occur intermittently through the night as
well. The low clouds and fog should break up by around 13Z.

The convection should reach KPSF and KPOU between 01Z and 03Z..then
the area of showers behind the convection lingers to around 06Z-08Z.
MVFR ceilings and visibilities should linger through about 13Z with
the low level moisture.

After around 13Z...ceilings and visibilities improve to VFR...but by
15Z-17Z...some scattered showers could develop around KALB...KGFL
and KPSF as upper energy tracks through our region. So...including a
VCSH there for Wednesday afternoon.

South to southeast winds through about 01Z at KPOU and KPSF until
the leading edge of the convection tracks through. There could be
some northwesterly wind gusts to 25 kt in the leading edge of the
convection.  Winds become west and northwest around 10 kt once the
convection exits.  Then as the rain ends later tonight the winds
trend to near calm.   Winds become southwest to northwest at 10 kt
or less Wednesday morning...continuing through Wednesday
afternoon.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A cold front will slowly move across our region this evening and
tonight, resulting in widespread showers and thunderstorms. Some
storms may produce locally heavy rainfall. A disturbance will
move through on Wednesday with a few more showers and
thunderstorms. High pressure will then build into the region
Wednesday night into Thursday, bringing dry weather.

Minimum relative humidity values will increase to between 85 and
100 percent tonight. Minimum RH values on Wednesday will be around
40 to 55 percent.

Southerly winds this evening at 5-10 mph will become westerly
by later this evening around 5 mph. Winds on Wednesday will be
northwest at 5 to 10 mph.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Showers and thunderstorms are likely across the region this
evening and tonight, ahead of and along a slow moving cold front.
Basin average rainfall will be around a half inch to an inch,
however locally heavy rainfall could result in isolated amounts
near or exceeding two inches. Ponding of water will occur within
thunderstorms, and even isolated flash flooding is possible within
persistent slow moving downpours, particularly across the western
Mohawk Valley. Antecedent conditions are very dry though, so
widespread hydro issues on larger stem rivers are not expected.

A few lingering showers and thunderstorms are possible Wednesday
with light qpf amounts.

Dry weather will return by Thursday, with high pressure moving
back in across the region.

The latest drought monitor now has most of our region labeled
`Abnormally Dry` (D0). In fact, over the past 30 days, most of our
region is approximately 1-3 inches below normal in terms of
rainfall.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/JPV
NEAR TERM...KL/NAS
SHORT TERM...KL/JPV
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL/JPV
HYDROLOGY...KL/JPV



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000
FXUS61 KBOX 290119
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
920 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

A slow moving cold front will bring scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms into Wednesday, with the bulk of the activity
occurring overnight. This front will push offshore Wednesday night.
High pressure then brings dry seasonable weather for Thursday.
Another cold front may bring more showers and thunderstorms Friday
or Saturday. Dry weather returns for the remainder of the holiday
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

920 pm update...

Cluster of showers and isolated t-storms across eastern NY state
continue to weaken as they very slowly lift to the northeast into a
less favorable environment.  This activity will gradually work into
western MA/northern CT over the next few hours, but continue the
weakening process. Still may see the showers with brief locally
heavy rainfall.  0 to 6 km shear does increase considerably near and
after 6z, so there might be a brief window for a bit of
intensification but poor instability will limit that to some degree.
While not expecting severe weather, sct showers/isolated t-storms
with brief localized heavy rainfall may occur across central and
eastern New England through daybreak.

Low temps will be in the 60s and with relatively high dewpoints in
place, so patchy fog is expected to develop. However, do not think
it will be widespread enough to warrant a dense fog advisory.  Will
continue to monitor closely.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Wednesday...A surface cold front will sweep across the region
later in the day. While the vast majority of the day will be dry
for most locations, there is a low risk for a few strong
thunderstorms developing in the afternoon ahead of this front.
Strong thunderstorms will be dependent upon getting enough
sunshine to increase instability, and having enough mid level
moisture lingering to permit storms to develop. While
thunderstorms remain uncertain, the highest risk will be across
Eastern MA/RI where moisture will be a bit deeper.

Wednesday night...Drier weather develops behind a departing cool
front. Humidity drops to more comfortable levels, but not by a
lot.

Seasonable temperatures through this period.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* Dry with seasonable conditions on Thursday
* Scattered showers and thunder Friday/Saturday from passing front
* Cooler and less humid for Sunday into July 4th Holiday

OVERVIEW...

The 12Z guidance is in good agreement for both the medium and long
range. Still a few minor issues because of timing but overall have a
high confidence in forecast trends. Upper level trough will remain
the dominate features across the Northeast as a subtropical ridge
builds across the Southeast, while a moderate upper ridge continues
over the West. Trended the overall pattern towards a blend of the
guidance as well as the ensemble means, which has remained
consistent over the past few runs.

DAILIES...

Thursday...

Cold front will move offshore on Thursday resulting in high pressure
pushing into the region. A few sct cu will develop as there will be
some left over mid-level moisture but overall a pleasant day is on
tap. Sea breeze development will keep coastal conditions cooler but
temps will be in the 80s across the interior.

Friday into Saturday...

Cold frontal system will approach from the west late Friday into
Saturday. Return flow across will help pool in higher dewpoints,
especially Friday night. So cannot rule out the potential for fog
development. Otherwise sct showers with isolated thunderstorms are
possible on Friday. The attention is more towards Friday night into
Saturday. Still a timing difference as the GFS is faster pushing the
front through by 12z Saturday. However the EC is about 12 hours
slower, which could result in more widespread thunderstorms. In
fact, the conservative EC show surface based CAPEs around 1000 j/kg,
with increasing 0-6km shear and steepening mid-level lapse rates.
This may result in a few strong storms Sat morning. Something to
continue to watch in case guidance slows down the timing of the
frontal passage.

Sunday and beyond...

Cold frontal system will be offshore by Saturday night allowing a
pleasant Sunday. Potent shortwave will move through the flow on
Sunday which will keep upper level trough over the region and cool
down temps aloft. 700 mb temps are near 1 to 2 standard deviations
below normal, indicating the cooler air aloft. Stationary front will
stall across the Ohio valley and into the Mid-Atlantic keeping
Southern New England on the dry, relatively cooler side. Less muggy
conditions will prevail as the hot, muggy conditions will stay south
of the front. These conditions will prevail into Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Wednesday Night/...

Tonight...Moderate confidence.  Conditions lower to MVFR-IFR
thresholds as boundary layer cools with an abundance of low level
moisture.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms also expected with
main risk between 03z and 12z.

Wednesday...Moderate confidence. MVFR-IFR conditions should
improve to mainly VFR by afternoon as low clouds/fog patches
dissipate. Low risk for a few strong thunderstorms Wed afternoon,
mainly Eastern MA/RI.

Wednesday night...High confidence. Mainly VFR conditions. Low risk
for MVFR conditions in patchy fog. Light and variable winds.

KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF trends. Moderate confidence in
timing.

KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF trends. Moderate confidence in
timing.

Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/...

Thursday...High confidence. Mainly VFR conditions. Sea breeze for
the coastlines.

Friday and Saturday...Moderate confidence.  Mainly VFR conditions
and dry weather. Scattered showers and thunderstorms may result in
brief periods of MVFR conditions especially Fri night into Sat.

Sunday...High confidence. VFR conditions will prevail.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Wednesday Night/...High confidence.

Winds and seas will generally remain below small craft advisory
thresholds through this portion of the forecast. South to
southwest wind gusts of 20 knots are expected at times with 2 to 4
foot seas across the open waters. Southeast swell may increase
seas to near 5 feet Wednesday night across the outermost coastal
waters south and east of Nantucket. Low confidence in this
happening.

Main concern is for areas of fog tonight into Wed morning across
the southern waters. May also see a few thunderstorms with brief
heavy rain overnight tonight.

Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/...

High confidence. Quiet boating weather expected. Winds and seas
remain below SCA criteria throughout the period. Could see a few
gusts near 20 kts on friday ahead of an approaching cold front.
This front should cross waters by Saturday. This will result in
showers and thunderstorms, which will reduce visibilities at
times.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
This Weekend into Next Week...

Hit or miss showers and thunderstorms will occur tonight into
Wednesday, with another shot for thunderstorms on Friday night.
However, widespread perception looks to be nil over the next 7
days.

High pressure and dry conditions appear to take hold of the
region late Saturday lasting into next week. Specifics are still to
hard to nail down, but it looks like the area will be less humid
and a bit cooler but dry during this time frame. RH values could
drop close to 30 percent between Sun into Wed. Winds overall
appear to be light during this period.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...Air Quality Alert from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Wednesday for
     RIZ006>008.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Belk/Dunten
NEAR TERM...Frank
SHORT TERM...Belk
LONG TERM...Dunten
AVIATION...Belk/Dunten
MARINE...Belk/Dunten
FIRE WEATHER...Dunten




000
FXUS61 KOKX 290100
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
900 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will approach from the west this evening, then
slowly cross the Tri-State through Wednesday. Weak high pressure
builds in Wednesday night through Friday. A cold front then
approaches and moves across the area late Friday night and Saturday.
High pressure builds in behind the front from Saturday night through
Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
The forecast has been updated to adjust the probability of
precipitation where thunderstorms are imminent or occurring. An
axis of heavy rainfall appears to be coming together across the
Hudson Valley into northern New Jersey.

The fog bank remains positioned along the south shore of Long
Island into New York City, with reduced visibilities being
reported at John F Kennedy Airport. Will maintain patchy fog in
the forecast for the overnight.

The timing of the entire system has been slowed slightly from the
previous forecast, and the expectation is that the thunderstorms
will hold together slightly longer due to the position of the
upper jet.

For lows tonight, a blend of MAV/MET/ECS guidance and NAM 2-meter
temperatures was used, with values forecast to be a few degrees
above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Core of 700-500 hPa trough lifts NE into eastern Quebec Wednesday,
taking the best dynamics with it. Best jet forcing will be in the
morning with the region in the right rear quadrant of a 75-80 KT 300
hPa jet and having a 50 KT 500 hPa jet pass over western
portions. However, the mid levels are forecast to be rather dry,
along with a cap centered around 650 hPa, with these likely being
the limiting factors in any convective development. For now have
slight chance pops across the N tier of the CWA Wednesday (area
closest to the best dynamic forcing), mainly E of the Hudson
River, with a dry forecast elsewhere.

Highs Wednesday were based on a blend of MAV/MET/ECS guidance, NAM
2-meter, and a mix down from 950-800 hPa per BUFKIT soundings.
Highs should be around 5 degrees above normal, except near normal
in the immediate NYC Metro area.

The main 700-500 hPa trough axis exits to the east Wednesday
evening, with drier air working in behind it in the low levels, to
go with the already dry air aloft. As a result, expect any cloud
cover to clear out overnight, with decent radiational cooling
setting up. Based on this, lows were weighed towards coolest of
MAV/MET/ECS guidance and NAM 2-meter temperatures at any given
point outside of urban areas. Lows should be near normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Weak high pressure builds across the area on Thursday and Friday. A
cold front will move through the area late on Friday night and into
early Saturday, brining showers and the potential for some
thunderstorms. High pressure builds behind the front Sunday and
remains through the holiday weekend.

Temperatures during the extended period will be near normal for this
time of year, with temperatures during the day in the low to mid 80s
and low temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
An approaching cold front passes through the region late tonight
into Wednesday morning.

S/SE winds around 10KT into early tonight will become light and
variable later tonight until the frontal passage Wednesday morning.
Then winds become more NW and will stay light with therefore sea
breeze formation Wednesday afternoon for coastal terminals. Though
there is more uncertainty with wind directions Wednesday
afternoon with therefore a low confidence forecast that
timeframe.

Conditions will become mostly IFR/LIFR this evening and continue
into early Wednesday morning. Highest chances for showers and
thunderstorms will be in the 01Z-06Z timeframe for most NYC
terminals as well as those to the N/W. Chances remain to the east
thereafter but mainly for showers with a lower chance for
thunderstorms. After the frontal passage Wednesday, conditions
gradually improve to VFR.

     NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: TSRA possible before 04z. VLIFR is possible at
times tonight. End time of LIFR/IFR could be 1-3 hours off.

KLGA TAF Comments: End time of LIFR/IFR could be 1-3 hours off.

KEWR TAF Comments: Timing of IFR/LIFR could be 1-3 hours off.

KTEB TAF Comments: End time of LIFR/IFR could be 1-3 hours off.

KHPN TAF Comments: End time of LIFR/IFR could be 1-3 hours off.

KISP TAF Comments: TSRA possible 04-06Z. End time of LIFR/IFR
could be 1-3 hours off.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.Wednesday night through Friday morning...VFR.
.Friday afternoon and night...MVFR or IFR conditions possible in
showers/tstms.
.Saturday and Sunday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Added patchy fog to the ocean and South Shore Bays tonight.
Otherwise, a relaxed pressure gradient over the waters around
Long Island will keep winds at 10 kt or less through Wednesday
night. With no significant swells forecast, seas/waves should be 3
ft or less as well during this time frame.

Winds and seas are forecast to remain below small craft advisory
levels Thursday through the holiday weekend.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
From 1/6-1/2 inch of rain is forecast through tonight, with
locally higher amounts possible mainly west of the Hudson River.
Areas that do experience locally heavy rainfall could experience
minor flooding of urban/poor drainage areas with a very small
chance of localized flash flooding. However, most areas will
receive no hydrologic impact from this rainfall.

No significant rainfall is expected from Wednesday through Friday.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible late Friday night
and into early Saturday. Antecedent conditions are very dry, so
widespread hydrology issues are not expected.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FIG/Maloit
NEAR TERM...JMC/Maloit
SHORT TERM...Maloit
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...JC/JM
MARINE...JMC/FIG/Maloit
HYDROLOGY...FIG/Maloit




000
FXUS61 KOKX 282359
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
759 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will approach from the west this evening, then
slowly cross the Tri-State through Wednesday. Weak high pressure
builds in Wednesday night through Friday. A cold front then
approaches and moves across the area late Friday night and Saturday.
High pressure builds in behind the front from Saturday night through
Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Added some patchy fog to the southern portions of Long Island and
New York City, as cameras have shown a fog bank offshore.
Otherwise, 700-500 hPa trough builds into the region tonight, as
an 850 hPa cold front moves into, then stalls over the area as it
becomes parallel to fairly weak flow at 850 hPa.

Should see showers, with maybe some embedded thunderstorms slowly build
into far western zones this evening, then spread eastward mainly
after midnight per latest high resolution model runs. CAPE of
500-1000 J/kg limited late this afternoon to W of the Hudson
River, with CAPE quickly diminishing after 00z. However, do have
showalter indices around 0 this evening throughout, hence at
least a slight chance of thunder everywhere. It does appear that
even the instability aloft diminishes after midnight, so have gone
over to just showers overnight.

Region remains under slight risk of severe storms tonight over
Orange County with a marginal risk just to the east, mainly for
areas W of the Hudson River. However, bulk shear remains below 20
kt, outside of Orange County where it is 25-30kt, until the CAPE
subsides, so Severe threat likely will be contained in Orange
County. However, will continue to highlight both Slight and
Marginal risk areas in the HWO, with the main threat strong gusty
winds. Also, with precipitable waters forecast over W zones to
reach upwards of 1.25 inches, could see some locally heavy
rainfall as well. See the hydrology section of the AFD for
details.

For lows tonight, a blend of MAV/MET/ECS guidance and NAM 2-meter
temperatures was used, with values forecast to be a few degrees
above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Core of 700-500 hPa trough lifts NE into eastern Quebec Wednesday,
taking the best dynamics with it. Best jet forcing will be in the
morning with the region in the right rear quadrant of a 75-80 KT 300
hPa jet and having a 50 KT 500 hPa jet pass over western
portions. However, the mid levels are forecast to be rather dry,
along with a cap centered around 650 hPa, with these likely being
the limiting factors in any convective development. For now have
slight chance pops across the N tier of the CWA Wednesday (area
closest to the best dynamic forcing), mainly E of the Hudson
River, with a dry forecast elsewhere.

Highs Wednesday were based on a blend of MAV/MET/ECS guidance, NAM
2-meter, and a mix down from 950-800 hPa per BUFKIT soundings.
Highs should be around 5 degrees above normal, except near normal
in the immediate NYC Metro area.

The main 700-500 hPa trough axis exits to the east Wednesday
evening, with drier air working in behind it in the low levels, to
go with the already dry air aloft. As a result, expect any cloud
cover to clear out overnight, with decent radiational cooling
setting up. Based on this, lows were weighed towards coolest of
MAV/MET/ECS guidance and NAM 2-meter temperatures at any given
point outside of urban areas. Lows should be near normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Weak high pressure builds across the area on Thursday and Friday. A
cold front will move through the area late on Friday night and into
early Saturday, brining showers and the potential for some
thunderstorms. High pressure builds behind the front Sunday and
remains through the holiday weekend.

Temperatures during the extended period will be near normal for this
time of year, with temperatures during the day in the low to mid 80s
and low temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
An approaching cold front passes through the region late tonight
into Wednesday morning.

S/SE winds around 10KT into early tonight will become light and
variable later tonight until the frontal passage Wednesday morning.
Then winds become more NW and will stay light with therefore sea
breeze formation Wednesday afternoon for coastal terminals. Though
there is more uncertainty with wind directions Wednesday
afternoon with therefore a low confidence forecast that
timeframe.

Conditions will become mostly IFR/LIFR this evening and continue
into early Wednesday morning. Highest chances for showers will be
in the 02Z-06Z timeframe for NYC terminals as well as those to
the N/W. Chances remain to the east thereafter. Thunderstorms are
only forecast to be sparse in coverage early this evening so with
much uncertainty in exact timing and placement, these were not
included in TAFs. After the frontal passage Wednesday, conditions
gradually improve to VFR.

     NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: VLIFR is possible at times tonight. End time of
LIFR/IFR could be 1-3 hours off.

KLGA TAF Comments: End time of LIFR/IFR could be 1-3 hours off.

KEWR TAF Comments: Timing of IFR/LIFR could be 1-3 hours off.

KTEB TAF Comments: End time of LIFR/IFR could be 1-3 hours off.

KHPN TAF Comments: End time of LIFR/IFR could be 1-3 hours off.

KISP TAF Comments: End time of LIFR/IFR could be 1-3 hours off.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.Wednesday night through Friday morning...VFR.
.Friday afternoon and night...MVFR or IFR conditions possible in
showers/tstms.
.Saturday and Sunday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Added patchy fog to the ocean and South Shore Bays tonight.
Otherwise, a relaxed pressure gradient over the waters around
Long Island will keep winds at 10 kt or less through Wednesday
night. With no significant swells forecast, seas/waves should be 3
ft or less as well during this time frame.

Winds and seas are forecast to remain below small craft advisory
levels Thursday through the holiday weekend.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
From 1/6-1/2 inch of rain is forecast through tonight, with
locally higher amounts possible mainly west of the Hudson River.
Areas that do experience locally heavy rainfall could experience
minor flooding of urban/poor drainage areas with a very small
chance of localized flash flooding. However, most areas will
receive no hydrologic impact from this rainfall.

No significant rainfall is expected from Wednesday through Friday.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible late Friday night
and into early Saturday. Antecedent conditions are very dry, so
widespread hydrology issues are not expected.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FIG/Maloit
NEAR TERM...JMC/Maloit
SHORT TERM...Maloit
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JMC/FIG/Maloit
HYDROLOGY...FIG/Maloit




000
FXUS61 KOKX 282359
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
759 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will approach from the west this evening, then
slowly cross the Tri-State through Wednesday. Weak high pressure
builds in Wednesday night through Friday. A cold front then
approaches and moves across the area late Friday night and Saturday.
High pressure builds in behind the front from Saturday night through
Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Added some patchy fog to the southern portions of Long Island and
New York City, as cameras have shown a fog bank offshore.
Otherwise, 700-500 hPa trough builds into the region tonight, as
an 850 hPa cold front moves into, then stalls over the area as it
becomes parallel to fairly weak flow at 850 hPa.

Should see showers, with maybe some embedded thunderstorms slowly build
into far western zones this evening, then spread eastward mainly
after midnight per latest high resolution model runs. CAPE of
500-1000 J/kg limited late this afternoon to W of the Hudson
River, with CAPE quickly diminishing after 00z. However, do have
showalter indices around 0 this evening throughout, hence at
least a slight chance of thunder everywhere. It does appear that
even the instability aloft diminishes after midnight, so have gone
over to just showers overnight.

Region remains under slight risk of severe storms tonight over
Orange County with a marginal risk just to the east, mainly for
areas W of the Hudson River. However, bulk shear remains below 20
kt, outside of Orange County where it is 25-30kt, until the CAPE
subsides, so Severe threat likely will be contained in Orange
County. However, will continue to highlight both Slight and
Marginal risk areas in the HWO, with the main threat strong gusty
winds. Also, with precipitable waters forecast over W zones to
reach upwards of 1.25 inches, could see some locally heavy
rainfall as well. See the hydrology section of the AFD for
details.

For lows tonight, a blend of MAV/MET/ECS guidance and NAM 2-meter
temperatures was used, with values forecast to be a few degrees
above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Core of 700-500 hPa trough lifts NE into eastern Quebec Wednesday,
taking the best dynamics with it. Best jet forcing will be in the
morning with the region in the right rear quadrant of a 75-80 KT 300
hPa jet and having a 50 KT 500 hPa jet pass over western
portions. However, the mid levels are forecast to be rather dry,
along with a cap centered around 650 hPa, with these likely being
the limiting factors in any convective development. For now have
slight chance pops across the N tier of the CWA Wednesday (area
closest to the best dynamic forcing), mainly E of the Hudson
River, with a dry forecast elsewhere.

Highs Wednesday were based on a blend of MAV/MET/ECS guidance, NAM
2-meter, and a mix down from 950-800 hPa per BUFKIT soundings.
Highs should be around 5 degrees above normal, except near normal
in the immediate NYC Metro area.

The main 700-500 hPa trough axis exits to the east Wednesday
evening, with drier air working in behind it in the low levels, to
go with the already dry air aloft. As a result, expect any cloud
cover to clear out overnight, with decent radiational cooling
setting up. Based on this, lows were weighed towards coolest of
MAV/MET/ECS guidance and NAM 2-meter temperatures at any given
point outside of urban areas. Lows should be near normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Weak high pressure builds across the area on Thursday and Friday. A
cold front will move through the area late on Friday night and into
early Saturday, brining showers and the potential for some
thunderstorms. High pressure builds behind the front Sunday and
remains through the holiday weekend.

Temperatures during the extended period will be near normal for this
time of year, with temperatures during the day in the low to mid 80s
and low temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
An approaching cold front passes through the region late tonight
into Wednesday morning.

S/SE winds around 10KT into early tonight will become light and
variable later tonight until the frontal passage Wednesday morning.
Then winds become more NW and will stay light with therefore sea
breeze formation Wednesday afternoon for coastal terminals. Though
there is more uncertainty with wind directions Wednesday
afternoon with therefore a low confidence forecast that
timeframe.

Conditions will become mostly IFR/LIFR this evening and continue
into early Wednesday morning. Highest chances for showers will be
in the 02Z-06Z timeframe for NYC terminals as well as those to
the N/W. Chances remain to the east thereafter. Thunderstorms are
only forecast to be sparse in coverage early this evening so with
much uncertainty in exact timing and placement, these were not
included in TAFs. After the frontal passage Wednesday, conditions
gradually improve to VFR.

     NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: VLIFR is possible at times tonight. End time of
LIFR/IFR could be 1-3 hours off.

KLGA TAF Comments: End time of LIFR/IFR could be 1-3 hours off.

KEWR TAF Comments: Timing of IFR/LIFR could be 1-3 hours off.

KTEB TAF Comments: End time of LIFR/IFR could be 1-3 hours off.

KHPN TAF Comments: End time of LIFR/IFR could be 1-3 hours off.

KISP TAF Comments: End time of LIFR/IFR could be 1-3 hours off.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.Wednesday night through Friday morning...VFR.
.Friday afternoon and night...MVFR or IFR conditions possible in
showers/tstms.
.Saturday and Sunday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Added patchy fog to the ocean and South Shore Bays tonight.
Otherwise, a relaxed pressure gradient over the waters around
Long Island will keep winds at 10 kt or less through Wednesday
night. With no significant swells forecast, seas/waves should be 3
ft or less as well during this time frame.

Winds and seas are forecast to remain below small craft advisory
levels Thursday through the holiday weekend.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
From 1/6-1/2 inch of rain is forecast through tonight, with
locally higher amounts possible mainly west of the Hudson River.
Areas that do experience locally heavy rainfall could experience
minor flooding of urban/poor drainage areas with a very small
chance of localized flash flooding. However, most areas will
receive no hydrologic impact from this rainfall.

No significant rainfall is expected from Wednesday through Friday.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible late Friday night
and into early Saturday. Antecedent conditions are very dry, so
widespread hydrology issues are not expected.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FIG/Maloit
NEAR TERM...JMC/Maloit
SHORT TERM...Maloit
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JMC/FIG/Maloit
HYDROLOGY...FIG/Maloit




000
FXUS61 KALY 282325
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
725 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will slowly move across our region tonight,
resulting in showers and thunderstorms. Some storms may be produce
locally heavy rainfall. A disturbance will move through on
Wednesday with a few more showers and thunderstorms. High pressure
will then build into the region Wednesday night into Thursday
night, bringing dry weather. Another frontal system may bring a
few showers or thunderstorms Friday, before fair and seasonably
warm conditions return for the upcoming weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

...Flash Flood Watch cancelled for western Mohawk Valley...

As of 725 PM EDT, a prefrontal trough/dewpoint boundary extended
from the Saratoga/Lake George region southwest into the central
Catskills. A weak wave of low pressure may be developing along
this boundary across eastern NY, in response to the approach of a
potent shortwave currently located across the eastern Great Lakes
region.

In the vicinity of this boundary, numerous showers and
thunderstorms have developed, producing locally very heavy
rainfall, and isolated gusty winds and hail.

The boundary will continue slowly trudging east and south, as the
weak wave of low pressure continues to ripple along it. Showers
and embedded thunderstorms will continue in the vicinity of this
boundary, especially from the Lake George region into the Capital
Region and NE Catskills through 9 PM. Locally heavy downpours will
remain possible, with the threat for strong winds diminishing.

Between roughly 9 PM and midnight, the showers and embedded
thunderstorms should move into western New England, and the mid
Hudson Valley. Again, some locally heavy downpours will remain
possible. The showers should weaken after midnight, and decrease
in areal coverage, although could linger across portions of SE VT,
and perhaps NW CT.

Areas of fog/low clouds may develop in areas which receive
rainfall this evening.

Overnight lows will mainly be in the lower 60s, with some 50s
possible across portions of the Adirondacks.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Wednesday, the shortwave currently located across the Great Lakes
will translate east across the region during the midday hours on
Wednesday. Forcing and mid level cooling associated with this
feature should allow for isolated to scattered showers to develop,
with the best chances/coverage across the upper Hudson Valley and
southern VT. Isolated thunderstorms will also be possible in this
region, where forcing will be greatest. Small hail/gusty winds
could occur with any taller convective elements. Showers and
thunderstorms should decrease in areal coverage late Wednesday
afternoon. Expect high temperatures to reach the mid 70s to mid
80s, warmest in valley areas from Albany south and east.

Wednesday night through Thursday night, high pressure will build
in with dry weather and seasonable temperatures.

On Friday, another shortwave will approach from the Great Lakes
region. There remains uncertainty as to the areal extent of any
showers/possible thunderstorms will be associated with this
feature, and will ultimately depend on low level moisture recovery
from the mid Atlantic region. For now, have chances for showers
and thunderstorms Friday afternoon/evening, tapering off Friday
night. Friday high temperatures are forecast to be in the upper
70s to mid 80s, but may be cooler if clouds/showers become more
widespread.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Generally fair and seasonably warm conditions are expected through
the period. We will have to watch for any fast moving upper level
impulses which pass through within a strong mid/upper level
west/northwest flow, which could generate isolated/scattered
showers, especially on Saturday, but for now, have indicated
mainly dry conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Leading line of showers and thunderstorms tracking through the KGFL
and KALB areas through 01Z. Area of intermittent rain behind the
line of convection should occur through about 06Z at KGFL and
KALB...then lingering low level moisture will help keep MVFR
ceilings in the area through much of the night. Some MVFR
visibilities in fog should occur intermittently through the night as
well. The low clouds and fog should break up by around 13Z.

The convection should reach KPSF and KPOU between 01Z and 03Z..then
the area of showers behind the convection lingers to around 06Z-08Z.
MVFR ceilings and visibilities should linger through about 13Z with
the low level moisture.

After around 13Z...ceilings and visibilities improve to VFR...but by
15Z-17Z...some scattered showers could develop around KALB...KGFL
and KPSF as upper energy tracks through our region. So...including a
VCSH there for Wednesday afternoon.

South to southeast winds through about 01Z at KPOU and KPSF until
the leading edge of the convection tracks through. There could be
some northwesterly wind gusts to 25 kt in the leading edge of the
convection.  Winds become west and northwest around 10 kt once the
convection exits.  Then as the rain ends later tonight the winds
trend to near calm.   Winds become southwest to northwest at 10 kt
or less Wednesday morning...continuing through Wednesday
afternoon.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A cold front will slowly move across our region this evening and
tonight, resulting in widespread showers and thunderstorms. Some
storms may produce locally heavy rainfall. A disturbance will
move through on Wednesday with a few more showers and
thunderstorms. High pressure will then build into the region
Wednesday night into Thursday, bringing dry weather.

Minimum relative humidity values will increase to between 85 and
100 percent tonight. Minimum RH values on Wednesday will be around
40 to 55 percent.

Southerly winds this evening at 5-10 mph will become westerly
by later this evening around 5 mph. Winds on Wednesday will be
northwest at 5 to 10 mph.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Showers and thunderstorms are likely across the region this
evening and tonight, ahead of and along a slow moving cold front.
Basin average rainfall will be around a half inch to an inch,
however locally heavy rainfall could result in isolated amounts
near or exceeding two inches. Ponding of water will occur within
thunderstorms, and even isolated flash flooding is possible within
persistent slow moving downpours, particularly across the western
Mohawk Valley. Antecedent conditions are very dry though, so
widespread hydro issues on larger stem rivers are not expected.

A few lingering showers and thunderstorms are possible Wednesday
with light qpf amounts.

Dry weather will return by Thursday, with high pressure moving
back in across the region.

The latest drought monitor now has most of our region labeled
`Abnormally Dry` (D0). In fact, over the past 30 days, most of our
region is approximately 1-3 inches below normal in terms of
rainfall.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/JPV
NEAR TERM...KL/JPV
SHORT TERM...KL/JPV
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...IAA/BGM/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL/JPV
HYDROLOGY...KL/JPV




000
FXUS61 KBOX 282324
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
724 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving cold front will bring scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms into Wednesday, with the bulk of the activity
occurring tonight. This front will push offshore Wednesday night.
High pressure then brings dry seasonable weather for Thursday.
Another cold front may bring more showers and thunderstorms Friday
or Saturday. Dry weather returns for the remainder of the holiday
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

Showers and thunderstorms remain to our west this evening. Latest
Hi-Res guidance as well as 18z GFS/NAM show precip moving into
the area by 03z lasting into the overnight hours. Still cannot
rule out the potential for thunder as showalters are below 0
combined with TT above 48. Limiting factor could be that MUCAPE
values are barely reaching above 150 J/Kg during the overnight
hours. However as we approach closer to 12z, then begin to rise
quickly to 300 J/Kg. PWAT values remain high over the region,
close to 1.5 inches. So within any stronger storm could see heavy
downpours. Insert heavy rain into the forecast as there is good
convergence within the boundary layer. This appears to stay fast
and true this evening. Still modest moisture convergence at the
925 mb level but not as strong as out west. Therefore will
continue to hold off on any watch product.

May need to watch the second half of the region tonight as LLJ
begins to increase. This may sprout more showers across the
region between 09-12z then what guidance is currently showing.

Otherwise southerly flow will continue to increase dewpoints
tonight. This will keep the muggy conditions going which may
result in widespread fog across the area. Uncertain on how low
vsbys will get due to the approaching precip and mixing aloft as
LLJ begins to increase. So will hold off on any dense fog product.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Wednesday...A surface cold front will sweep across the region
later in the day. While the vast majority of the day will be dry
for most locations, there is a low risk for a few strong
thunderstorms developing in the afternoon ahead of this front.
Strong thunderstorms will be dependent upon getting enough
sunshine to increase instability, and having enough mid level
moisture lingering to permit storms to develop. While
thunderstorms remain uncertain, the highest risk will be across
Eastern MA/RI where moisture will be a bit deeper.

Wednesday night...Drier weather develops behind a departing cool
front. Humidity drops to more comfortable levels, but not by a
lot.

Seasonable temperatures through this period.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* Dry with seasonable conditions on Thursday
* Scattered showers and thunder Friday/Saturday from passing front
* Cooler and less humid for Sunday into July 4th Holiday

OVERVIEW...

The 12Z guidance is in good agreement for both the medium and long
range. Still a few minor issues because of timing but overall have a
high confidence in forecast trends. Upper level trough will remain
the dominate features across the Northeast as a subtropical ridge
builds across the Southeast, while a moderate upper ridge continues
over the West. Trended the overall pattern towards a blend of the
guidance as well as the ensemble means, which has remained
consistent over the past few runs.

DAILIES...

Thursday...

Cold front will move offshore on Thursday resulting in high pressure
pushing into the region. A few sct cu will develop as there will be
some left over mid-level moisture but overall a pleasant day is on
tap. Sea breeze development will keep coastal conditions cooler but
temps will be in the 80s across the interior.

Friday into Saturday...

Cold frontal system will approach from the west late Friday into
Saturday. Return flow across will help pool in higher dewpoints,
especially Friday night. So cannot rule out the potential for fog
development. Otherwise sct showers with isolated thunderstorms are
possible on Friday. The attention is more towards Friday night into
Saturday. Still a timing difference as the GFS is faster pushing the
front through by 12z Saturday. However the EC is about 12 hours
slower, which could result in more widespread thunderstorms. In
fact, the conservative EC show surface based CAPEs around 1000 j/kg,
with increasing 0-6km shear and steepening mid-level lapse rates.
This may result in a few strong storms Sat morning. Something to
continue to watch in case guidance slows down the timing of the
frontal passage.

Sunday and beyond...

Cold frontal system will be offshore by Saturday night allowing a
pleasant Sunday. Potent shortwave will move through the flow on
Sunday which will keep upper level trough over the region and cool
down temps aloft. 700 mb temps are near 1 to 2 standard deviations
below normal, indicating the cooler air aloft. Stationary front will
stall across the Ohio valley and into the Mid-Atlantic keeping
Southern New England on the dry, relatively cooler side. Less muggy
conditions will prevail as the hot, muggy conditions will stay south
of the front. These conditions will prevail into Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Wednesday Night/...

Tonight...Moderate confidence.  Conditions lower to MVFR-IFR
thresholds as boundary layer cools with an abundance of low level
moisture.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms also expected with
main risk between 03z and 12z.

Wednesday...Moderate confidence. MVFR-IFR conditions should
improve to mainly VFR by afternoon as low clouds/fog patches
dissipate. Low risk for a few strong thunderstorms Wed afternoon,
mainly Eastern MA/RI.

Wednesday night...High confidence. Mainly VFR conditions. Low risk
for MVFR conditions in patchy fog. Light and variable winds.

KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF trends. Moderate confidence in
timing.

KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF trends. Moderate confidence in
timing.

Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/...

Thursday...High confidence. Mainly VFR conditions. Sea breeze for
the coastlines.

Friday and Saturday...Moderate confidence.  Mainly VFR conditions
and dry weather. Scattered showers and thunderstorms may result in
brief periods of MVFR conditions especially Fri night into Sat.

Sunday...High confidence. VFR conditions will prevail.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Wednesday Night/...High confidence.

Winds and seas will generally remain below small craft advisory
thresholds through this portion of the forecast. South to
southwest wind gusts of 20 knots are expected at times with 2 to 4
foot seas across the open waters. Southeast swell may increase
seas to near 5 feet Wednesday night across the outermost coastal
waters south and east of Nantucket. Low confidence in this
happening.

Main concern is for areas of fog tonight into Wed morning across
the southern waters. May also see a few thunderstorms with brief
heavy rain overnight tonight.

Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/...

High confidence. Quiet boating weather expected. Winds and seas
remain below SCA criteria throughout the period. Could see a few
gusts near 20 kts on friday ahead of an approaching cold front.
This front should cross waters by Saturday. This will result in
showers and thunderstorms, which will reduce visibilities at
times.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
This Weekend into Next Week...

Hit or miss showers and thunderstorms will occur tonight into
Wednesday, with another shot for thunderstorms on Friday night.
However, widespread perception looks to be nil over the next 7
days.

High pressure and dry conditions appear to take hold of the
region late Saturday lasting into next week. Specifics are still to
hard to nail down, but it looks like the area will be less humid
and a bit cooler but dry during this time frame. RH values could
drop close to 30 percent between Sun into Wed. Winds overall
appear to be light during this period.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...Air Quality Alert from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Wednesday for
     RIZ006>008.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Belk/Dunten
NEAR TERM...Belk/Dunten
SHORT TERM...Belk
LONG TERM...Dunten
AVIATION...Belk/Dunten
MARINE...Belk/Dunten
FIRE WEATHER...Dunten




000
FXUS61 KOKX 282239
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
639 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will approach from the west this evening, then
slowly cross the Tri-State through Wednesday. Weak high pressure
builds in Wednesday night through Friday. A cold front then
approaches and moves across the area late Friday night and Saturday.
High pressure builds in behind the front from Saturday night through
Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Added some patchy fog to the southern portions of Long Island and
New York City, as cameras have shown a fog bank offshore.
Otherwise, 700-500 hPa trough builds into the region tonight, as
an 850 hPa cold front moves into, then stalls over the area as it
becomes parallel to fairly weak flow at 850 hPa.

Should see showers, with maybe some embedded thunderstorms slowly build
into far western zones this evening, then spread eastward mainly
after midnight per latest high resolution model runs. CAPE of
500-1000 J/kg limited late this afternoon to W of the Hudson
River, with CAPE quickly diminishing after 00z. However, do have
showalter indices around 0 this evening throughout, hence at
least a slight chance of thunder everywhere. It does appear that
even the instability aloft diminishes after midnight, so have gone
over to just showers overnight.

Region remains under slight risk of severe storms tonight over
Orange County with a marginal risk just to the east, mainly for
areas W of the Hudson River. However, bulk shear remains below 20
kt, outside of Orange County where it is 25-30kt, until the CAPE
subsides, so Severe threat likely will be contained in Orange
County. However, will continue to highlight both Slight and
Marginal risk areas in the HWO, with the main threat strong gusty
winds. Also, with precipitable waters forecast over W zones to
reach upwards of 1.25 inches, could see some locally heavy
rainfall as well. See the hydrology section of the AFD for
details.

For lows tonight, a blend of MAV/MET/ECS guidance and NAM 2-meter
temperatures was used, with values forecast to be a few degrees
above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Core of 700-500 hPa trough lifts NE into eastern Quebec Wednesday,
taking the best dynamics with it. Best jet forcing will be in the
morning with the region in the right rear quadrant of a 75-80 KT 300
hPa jet and having a 50 KT 500 hPa jet pass over western
portions. However, the mid levels are forecast to be rather dry,
along with a cap centered around 650 hPa, with these likely being
the limiting factors in any convective development. For now have
slight chance pops across the N tier of the CWA Wednesday (area
closest to the best dynamic forcing), mainly E of the Hudson
River, with a dry forecast elsewhere.

Highs Wednesday were based on a blend of MAV/MET/ECS guidance, NAM
2-meter, and a mix down from 950-800 hPa per BUFKIT soundings.
Highs should be around 5 degrees above normal, except near normal
in the immediate NYC Metro area.

The main 700-500 hPa trough axis exits to the east Wednesday
evening, with drier air working in behind it in the low levels, to
go with the already dry air aloft. As a result, expect any cloud
cover to clear out overnight, with decent radiational cooling
setting up. Based on this, lows were weighed towards coolest of
MAV/MET/ECS guidance and NAM 2-meter temperatures at any given
point outside of urban areas. Lows should be near normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Weak high pressure builds across the area on Thursday and Friday. A
cold front will move through the area late on Friday night and into
early Saturday, brining showers and the potential for some
thunderstorms. High pressure builds behind the front Sunday and
remains through the holiday weekend.

Temperatures during the extended period will be near normal for this
time of year, with temperatures during the day in the low to mid 80s
and low temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
An approaching cold front passes through the region late tonight
into Wednesday morning.

S/SE winds around 10KT into early tonight will become light and
variable later tonight until the frontal passage Wednesday morning.
Then winds become more NW and will stay light with therefore sea
breeze formation Wednesday afternoon for coastal terminals.

Conditions initially MVFR to LIFR will become mostly IFR/LIFR late
this evening and continue into early Wednesday morning. Highest
chances for showers will be in the 00Z-04Z timeframe for NYC
terminals as well as those to the N/W. Chances remain to the east
thereafter. Thunderstorms are only forecast to be sparse in
coverage early this evening so with much uncertainty in exact
timing and placement, these were not included in TAFs. After
frontal passage Wednesday, conditions gradually improve to VFR.

     NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: Some IFR vsbys are possible before 4Z.

KLGA TAF Comments: Timing of IFR/LIFR could be 1-2 hours off.

KEWR TAF Comments: Timing of IFR/LIFR could be 1-2 hours off.

KTEB TAF Comments: Timing of IFR/LIFR could be 1-2 hours off.

KHPN TAF Comments: Timing of LIFR to IFR could be 1-3 hours off.

KISP TAF Comments: Timing of LIFR to IFR could be 1-3 hours off.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH Sunday...
.Wednesday afternoon through Friday morning...VFR.
.Friday afternoon and night...MVFR or IFR conditions possible in
showers/tstms.
.Saturday and Sunday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Added patchy fog to the ocean and South Shore Bays tonight.
Otherwise, a relaxed pressure gradient over the waters around
Long Island will keep winds at 10 kt or less through Wednesday
night. With no significant swells forecast, seas/waves should be 3
ft or less as well during this time frame.

Winds and seas are forecast to remain below small craft advisory
levels Thursday through the holiday weekend.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
From 1/6-1/2 inch of rain is forecast through tonight, with
locally higher amounts possible mainly west of the Hudson River.
Areas that do experience locally heavy rainfall could experience
minor flooding of urban/poor drainage areas with a very small
chance of localized flash flooding. However, most areas will
receive no hydrologic impact from this rainfall.

No significant rainfall is expected from Wednesday through Friday.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible late Friday night
and into early Saturday. Antecedent conditions are very dry, so
widespread hydrology issues are not expected.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FIG/Maloit
NEAR TERM...JMC/Maloit
SHORT TERM...Maloit
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...JC/JM
MARINE...JMC/FIG/Maloit
HYDROLOGY...FIG/Maloit




000
FXUS61 KOKX 282239
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
639 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will approach from the west this evening, then
slowly cross the Tri-State through Wednesday. Weak high pressure
builds in Wednesday night through Friday. A cold front then
approaches and moves across the area late Friday night and Saturday.
High pressure builds in behind the front from Saturday night through
Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Added some patchy fog to the southern portions of Long Island and
New York City, as cameras have shown a fog bank offshore.
Otherwise, 700-500 hPa trough builds into the region tonight, as
an 850 hPa cold front moves into, then stalls over the area as it
becomes parallel to fairly weak flow at 850 hPa.

Should see showers, with maybe some embedded thunderstorms slowly build
into far western zones this evening, then spread eastward mainly
after midnight per latest high resolution model runs. CAPE of
500-1000 J/kg limited late this afternoon to W of the Hudson
River, with CAPE quickly diminishing after 00z. However, do have
showalter indices around 0 this evening throughout, hence at
least a slight chance of thunder everywhere. It does appear that
even the instability aloft diminishes after midnight, so have gone
over to just showers overnight.

Region remains under slight risk of severe storms tonight over
Orange County with a marginal risk just to the east, mainly for
areas W of the Hudson River. However, bulk shear remains below 20
kt, outside of Orange County where it is 25-30kt, until the CAPE
subsides, so Severe threat likely will be contained in Orange
County. However, will continue to highlight both Slight and
Marginal risk areas in the HWO, with the main threat strong gusty
winds. Also, with precipitable waters forecast over W zones to
reach upwards of 1.25 inches, could see some locally heavy
rainfall as well. See the hydrology section of the AFD for
details.

For lows tonight, a blend of MAV/MET/ECS guidance and NAM 2-meter
temperatures was used, with values forecast to be a few degrees
above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Core of 700-500 hPa trough lifts NE into eastern Quebec Wednesday,
taking the best dynamics with it. Best jet forcing will be in the
morning with the region in the right rear quadrant of a 75-80 KT 300
hPa jet and having a 50 KT 500 hPa jet pass over western
portions. However, the mid levels are forecast to be rather dry,
along with a cap centered around 650 hPa, with these likely being
the limiting factors in any convective development. For now have
slight chance pops across the N tier of the CWA Wednesday (area
closest to the best dynamic forcing), mainly E of the Hudson
River, with a dry forecast elsewhere.

Highs Wednesday were based on a blend of MAV/MET/ECS guidance, NAM
2-meter, and a mix down from 950-800 hPa per BUFKIT soundings.
Highs should be around 5 degrees above normal, except near normal
in the immediate NYC Metro area.

The main 700-500 hPa trough axis exits to the east Wednesday
evening, with drier air working in behind it in the low levels, to
go with the already dry air aloft. As a result, expect any cloud
cover to clear out overnight, with decent radiational cooling
setting up. Based on this, lows were weighed towards coolest of
MAV/MET/ECS guidance and NAM 2-meter temperatures at any given
point outside of urban areas. Lows should be near normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Weak high pressure builds across the area on Thursday and Friday. A
cold front will move through the area late on Friday night and into
early Saturday, brining showers and the potential for some
thunderstorms. High pressure builds behind the front Sunday and
remains through the holiday weekend.

Temperatures during the extended period will be near normal for this
time of year, with temperatures during the day in the low to mid 80s
and low temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
An approaching cold front passes through the region late tonight
into Wednesday morning.

S/SE winds around 10KT into early tonight will become light and
variable later tonight until the frontal passage Wednesday morning.
Then winds become more NW and will stay light with therefore sea
breeze formation Wednesday afternoon for coastal terminals.

Conditions initially MVFR to LIFR will become mostly IFR/LIFR late
this evening and continue into early Wednesday morning. Highest
chances for showers will be in the 00Z-04Z timeframe for NYC
terminals as well as those to the N/W. Chances remain to the east
thereafter. Thunderstorms are only forecast to be sparse in
coverage early this evening so with much uncertainty in exact
timing and placement, these were not included in TAFs. After
frontal passage Wednesday, conditions gradually improve to VFR.

     NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: Some IFR vsbys are possible before 4Z.

KLGA TAF Comments: Timing of IFR/LIFR could be 1-2 hours off.

KEWR TAF Comments: Timing of IFR/LIFR could be 1-2 hours off.

KTEB TAF Comments: Timing of IFR/LIFR could be 1-2 hours off.

KHPN TAF Comments: Timing of LIFR to IFR could be 1-3 hours off.

KISP TAF Comments: Timing of LIFR to IFR could be 1-3 hours off.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH Sunday...
.Wednesday afternoon through Friday morning...VFR.
.Friday afternoon and night...MVFR or IFR conditions possible in
showers/tstms.
.Saturday and Sunday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Added patchy fog to the ocean and South Shore Bays tonight.
Otherwise, a relaxed pressure gradient over the waters around
Long Island will keep winds at 10 kt or less through Wednesday
night. With no significant swells forecast, seas/waves should be 3
ft or less as well during this time frame.

Winds and seas are forecast to remain below small craft advisory
levels Thursday through the holiday weekend.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
From 1/6-1/2 inch of rain is forecast through tonight, with
locally higher amounts possible mainly west of the Hudson River.
Areas that do experience locally heavy rainfall could experience
minor flooding of urban/poor drainage areas with a very small
chance of localized flash flooding. However, most areas will
receive no hydrologic impact from this rainfall.

No significant rainfall is expected from Wednesday through Friday.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible late Friday night
and into early Saturday. Antecedent conditions are very dry, so
widespread hydrology issues are not expected.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FIG/Maloit
NEAR TERM...JMC/Maloit
SHORT TERM...Maloit
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...JC/JM
MARINE...JMC/FIG/Maloit
HYDROLOGY...FIG/Maloit




000
FXUS61 KALY 282003
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
403 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will slowly move across our region this
evening and tonight, resulting in showers and thunderstorms. Some
storms may be produce locally very heavy rainfall. A disturbance
will move through on Wednesday with a few more showers and
thunderstorms. High pressure will then build into the region
Wednesday night into Thursday night, bringing dry weather.
Another frontal system may bring a few showers or thunderstorms
Friday, before fair and seasonably warm conditions return for the
upcoming weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

...Flash Flood Watch in effect until 10 PM EDT for the southern
Herkimer CO...Fulton and Montgomery Cos...

As of 345 PM EDT, a prefrontal trough/dewpoint boundary extended
from the western Adirondacks/Mohawk Valley, into south central
NYS. It appears a weak wave of low pressure may be developing
along this boundary across far NE PA, in response to the approach
of a potent shortwave currently located across the eastern Great
Lakes region.

In the vicinity of this boundary, numerous showers and
thunderstorms have developed, producing locally very heavy
rainfall, and isolated gusty winds and hail.

As the aforementioned wave ripples along this boundary, it appears
that the best chance for showers/thunderstorms through sunset will
be across Herkimer CO and Hamilton Cos, and portions of the
western Mohawk Valley. As mid level winds back with the approach
of the aforementioned shortwave, some of this activity may
actually expand back northward into central and northern
Herkimer/Hamilton Cos.

Closer to, and especially after sunset, we expect the weak wave of
low pressure to move northeast, allowing this boundary to begin
sagging E and S. This should allow the threat of showers and
thunderstorms to increase from northwest to southeast across the
eastern Mohawk Valley, Capital Region and Lake George/Saratoga
Region, and southern VT around or shortly after sunset, and into
the Berkshires a bit later, most likely between roughly 10 PM and
midnight. The main impacts from these thunderstorms should be
locally heavy rain, but can not rule out localized gusty winds,
especially in any merging thunderstorm clusters and associated
cold pools.

It appears that the western Mohawk Valley may remain in an area of
repeated/multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms through this
evening. Although it has been quite dry lately, individual
thunderstorms will be capable of producing rainfall rates of 1 to
2 inches per hour, and the western Mohawk Valley may be the most
susceptible area for training of this convection, therefore a
Flash Flood Watch has been issued through 10 PM.

Later tonight, showers and thunderstorms should weaken as they
trend south and east.

Areas of fog/low clouds may develop in areas which receive
rainfall this evening.

Overnight lows will mainly be in the 60s, with some 50s possible
across portions of the Adirondacks.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Wednesday, the shortwave currently located across the Great Lakes
will translate east across the region during the midday hours on
Wednesday. Forcing and mid level cooling associated with this
feature should allow for isolated to scattered showers to develop,
with the best chances/coverage across the upper Hudson Valley and
southern VT. Isolated thunderstorms will also be possible in this
region, where forcing will be greatest. Small hail/gusty winds
could occur with any taller convective elements. Showers and
thunderstorms should decrease in areal coverage late Wednesday
afternoon. Expect high temperatures to reach the mid 70s to mid
80s, warmest in valley areas from Albany south and east.

Wednesday night through Thursday night, high pressure will build
in with dry weather and seasonable temperatures.

On Friday, another shortwave will approach from the Great Lakes
region. There remains uncertainty as to the areal extent of any
showers/possible thunderstorms will be associated with this
feature, and will ultimately depend on low level moisture recovery
from the mid Atlantic region. For now, have chances for showers
and thunderstorms Friday afternoon/evening, tapering off Friday
night. Friday high temperatures are forecast to be in the upper
70s to mid 80s, but may be cooler if clouds/showers become more
widespread.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Generally fair and seasonably warm conditions are expected through
the period. We will have to watch for any fast moving upper level
impulses which pass through within a strong mid/upper level
west/northwest flow, which could generate isolated/scattered
showers, especially on Saturday, but for now, have indicated
mainly dry conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
We continue to watch convection developing upstream at this time as
a few thunderstorms are just to the west of the Capital District
with a sct-bkn line of convection along the cold front in the
vicinity of I81.  Expectations are for this line of convection to
develop and mature as it approaches the Hudson Valley TAF locations
with a period of MVFR to possibly IFR conditions.  The best window
of opportunity would be from approximately 20Z Tuesday til 02Z
Wednesday.

Tonight depending on how much rain impacts the TAF sites, widespread
MVFR conditions are expected to develop for the overnight in the
wake of the convection with IFR conditions expected at KPOU and KPSF.

Southerly winds this afternoon with gusts into the teens and lower
20s at KALB during the afternoon. Winds will become light
and variable tonight.



Outlook...

Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A cold front will slowly move across our region this evening and
tonight, resulting in widespread showers and thunderstorms. Some
storms may produce locally heavy rainfall. A disturbance will
move through on Wednesday with a few more showers and
thunderstorms. High pressure will then build into the region
Wednesday night into Thursday, bringing dry weather.

Minimum relative humidity values will increase to between 85 and
100 percent tonight. Minimum RH values on Wednesday will be around
40 to 55 percent.

Southerly winds this evening at 5-10 mph will become westerly
later tonight around 5 mph. Winds on Wednesday will be northwest
at 5 to 10 mph.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Showers and thunderstorms are likely across the region this
evening and tonight, ahead of and along a slow moving cold front.
Basin average rainfall will be around a half inch to an inch,
however locally heavy rainfall could result in isolated amounts
near or exceeding two inches. Ponding of water will occur within
thunderstorms, and even isolated flash flooding is possible within
persistent slow moving downpours, particularly across the western
Mohawk Valley. Antecedent conditions are very dry though, so
widespread hydro issues on larger stem rivers are not expected.

A few lingering showers and thunderstorms are possible Wednesday
with light qpf amounts.

Dry weather will return by Thursday, with high pressure moving
back in across the region.

The latest drought monitor now has most of our region labeled
`Abnormally Dry` (D0). In fact, over the past 30 days, most of our
region is approximately 1-3 inches below normal in terms of
rainfall.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Flash Flood Watch until 10 PM EDT this evening for NYZ038>040-
     082.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/JPV
NEAR TERM...KL/JPV
SHORT TERM...KL/JPV
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...IAA/BGM
FIRE WEATHER...KL/JPV
HYDROLOGY...KL/JPV




000
FXUS61 KBOX 281952
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
352 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving cold front will bring scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms into Wednesday, with the bulk of the activity
occurring tonight. This front will push offshore Wednesday night.
High pressure then brings dry seasonable weather for Thursday.
Another cold front may bring more showers and thunderstorms Friday
or Saturday. Dry weather returns for the remainder of the holiday
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Instability remains the primary limitation for showers and
thunderstorms across southern New England this afternoon. Latest
mesoanalysis showing CAPE values starting to increase to around
500 J/kg. This is in response to some breaks in the clouds across
western MA and northern CT. Both low level and mid level lapse
rates remain poor this afternoon. As a result, have low confidence
for any strong thunderstorms across southern New England this
evening.

A cold front will slowly approach our region tonight, with a
mid level shortwave arriving late tonight. Plenty of moisture
available, so it all comes down to generating enough lift for
showers. Precipitable water values still 1.5-2.0 inches, so
locally heavy rainfall a possibility. Will mention only isolated
thunderstorms at most, owing to poor instability and time of day.

South winds continue through much of the night. Thus, looking for
more stratus and patchy fog to develop once more. This should be
most prevalent toward the south coast of MA and RI, but could very
well encompass just about all of southern New England.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Wednesday...A surface cold front will sweep across the region
later in the day. While the vast majority of the day will be dry
for most locations, there is a low risk for a few strong
thunderstorms developing in the afternoon ahead of this front.
Strong thunderstorms will be dependent upon getting enough
sunshine to increase instability, and having enough mid level
moisture lingering to permit storms to develop. While
thunderstorms remain uncertain, the highest risk will be across
Eastern MA/RI where moisture will be a bit deeper.

Wednesday night...Drier weather develops behind a departing cool
front. Humidity drops to more comfortable levels, but not by a
lot.

Seasonable temperatures through this period.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* Dry with seasonable conditions on Thursday
* Scattered showers and thunder Friday/Saturday from passing front
* Cooler and less humid for Sunday into July 4th Holiday

OVERVIEW...

The 12Z guidance is in good agreement for both the medium and long
range. Still a few minor issues because of timing but overall have a
high confidence in forecast trends. Upper level trough will remain
the dominate features across the Northeast as a subtropical ridge
builds across the Southeast, while a moderate upper ridge continues
over the West. Trended the overall pattern towards a blend of the
guidance as well as the ensemble means, which has remained
consistent over the past few runs.

DAILIES...

Thursday...

Cold front will move offshore on Thursday resulting in high pressure
pushing into the region. A few sct cu will develop as there will be
some left over mid-level moisture but overall a pleasant day is on
tap. Sea breeze development will keep coastal conditions cooler but
temps will be in the 80s across the interior.

Friday into Saturday...

Cold frontal system will approach from the west late Friday into
Saturday. Return flow across will help pool in higher dewpoints,
especially Friday night. So cannot rule out the potential for fog
development. Otherwise sct showers with isolated thunderstorms are
possible on Friday. The attention is more towards Friday night into
Saturday. Still a timing difference as the GFS is faster pushing the
front through by 12z Saturday. However the EC is about 12 hours
slower, which could result in more widespread thunderstorms. In
fact, the conservative EC show surface based CAPEs around 1000 j/kg,
with increasing 0-6km shear and steepening mid-level lapse rates.
This may result in a few strong storms Sat morning. Something to
continue to watch in case guidance slows down the timing of the
frontal passage.

Sunday and beyond...

Cold frontal system will be offshore by Saturday night allowing a
pleasant Sunday. Potent shortwave will move through the flow on
Sunday which will keep upper level trough over the region and cool
down temps aloft. 700 mb temps are near 1 to 2 standard deviations
below normal, indicating the cooler air aloft. Stationary front will
stall across the Ohio valley and into the Mid-Atlantic keeping
Southern New England on the dry, relatively cooler side. Less muggy
conditions will prevail as the hot, muggy conditions will stay south
of the front. These conditions will prevail into Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Wednesday Night/...

Through 00z...Moderate confidence. Mix of VFR and MVFR conditions.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms remain main to the west of
southern New England, but could get as far east as KORE-KBDL by
29/00Z.

Tonight...Moderate confidence.  Conditions lower to MVFR-IFR
thresholds as boundary layer cools with an abundance of low level
moisture.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms also expected with
main risk between 01z and 09z.

Wednesday...Moderate confidence. MVFR-IFR conditions should
improve to mainly VFR by afternoon as low clouds/fog patches
dissipate. Low risk for a few strong thunderstorms Wed afternoon,
mainly Eastern MA/RI.

Wednesday night...High confidence. Mainly VFR conditions. Low risk
for MVFR conditions in patchy fog. Light and variable winds.

KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF trends. Moderate confidence in
timing.

KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF trends. Moderate confidence in
timing.

Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/...

Thursday...High confidence. Mainly VFR conditions. Sea breeze for
the coastlines.

Friday and Saturday...Moderate confidence.  Mainly VFR conditions
and dry weather. Scattered showers and thunderstorms may result in
brief periods of MVFR conditions especially Fri night into Sat.

Sunday...High confidence. VFR conditions will prevail.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Wednesday Night/...High confidence.

Winds and seas will generally remain below small craft advisory
thresholds through this portion of the forecast. South to
southwest wind gusts of 20 knots are expected at times with 2 to 4
foot seas across the open waters. Southeast swell may increase
seas to near 5 feet Wednesday night across the outermost coastal
waters south and east of Nantucket. Low confidence in this
happening.

Main concern is for areas of fog tonight into Wed morning across
the southern waters. May also see a few thunderstorms with brief
heavy rain overnight tonight.

Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/...

High confidence. Quiet boating weather expected. Winds and seas
remain below SCA criteria throughout the period. Could see a few
gusts near 20 kts on friday ahead of an approaching cold front.
This front should cross waters by Saturday. This will result in
showers and thunderstorms, which will reduce visibilities at
times.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

This Weekend into Next Week...

Hit or miss showers and thunderstorms will occur tonight into
Wednesday, with another shot for thunderstorms on Friday night.
However, widespread perception looks to be nil over the next 7
days.

High pressure and dry conditions appear to take hold of the
region late Saturday lasting into next week. Specifics are still to
hard to nail down, but it looks like the area will be less humid
and a bit cooler but dry during this time frame. RH values could
drop close to 30 percent between Sun into Wed. Winds overall
appear to be light during this period.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Belk/Dunten
NEAR TERM...Belk
SHORT TERM...Belk
LONG TERM...Dunten
AVIATION...Belk/Dunten
MARINE...Belk/Dunten
FIRE WEATHER...Dunten




000
FXUS61 KOKX 281951
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
351 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will approach from the west this evening, then
slowly cross the Tri-State through Wednesday. Weak high pressure
builds in Wednesday night through Friday. A cold front then
approaches and moves across the area late Friday night and Saturday.
High pressure builds in behind the front from Saturday night through
Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
700-500 hPa trough builds into the region tonight, as an 850 hPa
cold front moves into, then stalls over the area as it becomes
parallel to fairly weak flow at 850 hPa.

Should see showers, with maybe some embedded thunderstorms slowly build
into far western zones this evening, then spread eastward mainly
after midnight per latest high resolution model runs. CAPE of
500-1000 J/kg limited late this afternoon to W of the Hudson
River, with CAPE quickly diminishing after 00z. However, do have
showalter indices around 0 this evening throughout, hence at
least a slight chance of thunder everywhere. It does appear that
even the instability aloft diminishes after midnight, so have gone
over to just showers overnight.

Region remains under slight risk of severe storms tonight over
Orange County with a marginal risk just to the east, mainly for
areas W of the Hudson River. However, bulk shear remains below 20
kt, outside of Orange County where it is 25-30kt, until the CAPE
subsides, so Severe threat likely will be contained in Orange
County. However, will continue to highlight both Slight and
Marginal risk areas in the HWO, with the main threat strong gusty
winds. Also, with precipitable waters forecast over W zones to
reach upwards of 1.25 inches, could see some locally heavy
rainfall as well. See the hydrology section of the AFD for
details.

For lows tonight, a blend of MAV/MET/ECS guidance and NAM 2-meter
temperatures was used, with values forecast to be a few degrees
above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Core of 700-500 hPa trough lifts NE into eastern Quebec Wednesday,
taking the best dynamics with it. Best jet forcing will be in the
morning with the region in the right rear quadrant of a 75-80 KT 300
hPa jet and having a 50 KT 500 hPa jet pass over western
portions. However, the mid levels are forecast to be rather dry,
along with a cap centered around 650 hPa, with these likely being
the limiting factors in any convective development. For now have
slight chance pops across the N tier of the CWA Wednesday (area
closest to the best dynamic forcing), mainly E of the Hudson
River, with a dry forecast elsewhere.

Highs Wednesday were based on a blend of MAV/MET/ECS guidance, NAM
2-meter, and a mix down from 950-800 hPa per BUFKIT soundings.
Highs should be around 5 degrees above normal, except near normal
in the immediate NYC Metro area.

The main 700-500 hPa trough axis exits to the east Wednesday
evening, with drier air working in behind it in the low levels, to
go with the already dry air aloft. As a result, expect any cloud
cover to clear out overnight, with decent radiational cooling
setting up. Based on this, lows were weighed towards coolest of
MAV/MET/ECS guidance and NAM 2-meter temperatures at any given
point outside of urban areas. Lows should be near normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Weak high pressure builds across the area on Thursday and Friday. A
cold front will move through the area late on Friday night and into
early Saturday, brining showers and the potential for some
thunderstorms. High pressure builds behind the front Sunday and
remains through the holiday weekend.

Temperatures during the extended period will be near normal for this
time of year, with temperatures during the day in the low to mid 80s
and low temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
An approaching cold front passes through the region late tonight
into Wednesday morning.

S/SE winds around 10KT.

Cigs at city and western terminals varying mostly 800-1500 FT. Cigs
probably lower after around 00-01Z. Showers will be possible for a
few hours, starting around midnight for the city terminals. A
thunderstorm is possible during this period, but not
likely/widespread enough to include at any terminal forecast.

     NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: Prevailing MVFR cigs possible this afternoon.

KLGA TAF Comments: Prevailing MVFR cigs possible this afternoon.

KEWR TAF Comments: Prevailing MVFR cigs possible this afternoon.

KTEB TAF Comments: Tempo IFR cigs possible before 00Z.

KHPN TAF Comments: Tempo MVFR possible this afternoon.

KISP TAF Comments: Cigs could vary 800-1200FT for the rest of the
afternoon.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH Sunday...

.Wednesday afternoon through Friday morning...VFR.

.Friday afternoon and night...MVFR or IFR conditions possible in
showers/tstms.

.Saturday and Sunday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A relaxed pressure gradient over the waters around Long Island
will keep winds at 10 kt or less through Wednesday night. With no
significant swells forecast, seas/waves should be 3 ft or less as
well during this time frame.

Winds and seas are forecast to remain below small craft advisory
levels Thursday through the holiday weekend.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
From 1/6-1/2 inch of rain is forecast through tonight, with
locally higher amounts possible mainly west of the Hudson River.
Areas that do experience locally heavy rainfall could experience
minor flooding of urban/poor drainage areas with a very small
chance of localized flash flooding. However, most areas will
receive no hydrologic impact from this rainfall.

No significant rainfall is expected from Wednesday through Friday.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible late Friday night
and into early Saturday. Antecedent conditions are very dry, so
widespread hydrology issues are not expected.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Maloit/FIG
NEAR TERM...Maloit
SHORT TERM...Maloit
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...Maloit/FIG
HYDROLOGY...Maloit/FIG




000
FXUS61 KOKX 281951
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
351 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will approach from the west this evening, then
slowly cross the Tri-State through Wednesday. Weak high pressure
builds in Wednesday night through Friday. A cold front then
approaches and moves across the area late Friday night and Saturday.
High pressure builds in behind the front from Saturday night through
Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
700-500 hPa trough builds into the region tonight, as an 850 hPa
cold front moves into, then stalls over the area as it becomes
parallel to fairly weak flow at 850 hPa.

Should see showers, with maybe some embedded thunderstorms slowly build
into far western zones this evening, then spread eastward mainly
after midnight per latest high resolution model runs. CAPE of
500-1000 J/kg limited late this afternoon to W of the Hudson
River, with CAPE quickly diminishing after 00z. However, do have
showalter indices around 0 this evening throughout, hence at
least a slight chance of thunder everywhere. It does appear that
even the instability aloft diminishes after midnight, so have gone
over to just showers overnight.

Region remains under slight risk of severe storms tonight over
Orange County with a marginal risk just to the east, mainly for
areas W of the Hudson River. However, bulk shear remains below 20
kt, outside of Orange County where it is 25-30kt, until the CAPE
subsides, so Severe threat likely will be contained in Orange
County. However, will continue to highlight both Slight and
Marginal risk areas in the HWO, with the main threat strong gusty
winds. Also, with precipitable waters forecast over W zones to
reach upwards of 1.25 inches, could see some locally heavy
rainfall as well. See the hydrology section of the AFD for
details.

For lows tonight, a blend of MAV/MET/ECS guidance and NAM 2-meter
temperatures was used, with values forecast to be a few degrees
above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Core of 700-500 hPa trough lifts NE into eastern Quebec Wednesday,
taking the best dynamics with it. Best jet forcing will be in the
morning with the region in the right rear quadrant of a 75-80 KT 300
hPa jet and having a 50 KT 500 hPa jet pass over western
portions. However, the mid levels are forecast to be rather dry,
along with a cap centered around 650 hPa, with these likely being
the limiting factors in any convective development. For now have
slight chance pops across the N tier of the CWA Wednesday (area
closest to the best dynamic forcing), mainly E of the Hudson
River, with a dry forecast elsewhere.

Highs Wednesday were based on a blend of MAV/MET/ECS guidance, NAM
2-meter, and a mix down from 950-800 hPa per BUFKIT soundings.
Highs should be around 5 degrees above normal, except near normal
in the immediate NYC Metro area.

The main 700-500 hPa trough axis exits to the east Wednesday
evening, with drier air working in behind it in the low levels, to
go with the already dry air aloft. As a result, expect any cloud
cover to clear out overnight, with decent radiational cooling
setting up. Based on this, lows were weighed towards coolest of
MAV/MET/ECS guidance and NAM 2-meter temperatures at any given
point outside of urban areas. Lows should be near normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Weak high pressure builds across the area on Thursday and Friday. A
cold front will move through the area late on Friday night and into
early Saturday, brining showers and the potential for some
thunderstorms. High pressure builds behind the front Sunday and
remains through the holiday weekend.

Temperatures during the extended period will be near normal for this
time of year, with temperatures during the day in the low to mid 80s
and low temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
An approaching cold front passes through the region late tonight
into Wednesday morning.

S/SE winds around 10KT.

Cigs at city and western terminals varying mostly 800-1500 FT. Cigs
probably lower after around 00-01Z. Showers will be possible for a
few hours, starting around midnight for the city terminals. A
thunderstorm is possible during this period, but not
likely/widespread enough to include at any terminal forecast.

     NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: Prevailing MVFR cigs possible this afternoon.

KLGA TAF Comments: Prevailing MVFR cigs possible this afternoon.

KEWR TAF Comments: Prevailing MVFR cigs possible this afternoon.

KTEB TAF Comments: Tempo IFR cigs possible before 00Z.

KHPN TAF Comments: Tempo MVFR possible this afternoon.

KISP TAF Comments: Cigs could vary 800-1200FT for the rest of the
afternoon.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH Sunday...

.Wednesday afternoon through Friday morning...VFR.

.Friday afternoon and night...MVFR or IFR conditions possible in
showers/tstms.

.Saturday and Sunday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A relaxed pressure gradient over the waters around Long Island
will keep winds at 10 kt or less through Wednesday night. With no
significant swells forecast, seas/waves should be 3 ft or less as
well during this time frame.

Winds and seas are forecast to remain below small craft advisory
levels Thursday through the holiday weekend.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
From 1/6-1/2 inch of rain is forecast through tonight, with
locally higher amounts possible mainly west of the Hudson River.
Areas that do experience locally heavy rainfall could experience
minor flooding of urban/poor drainage areas with a very small
chance of localized flash flooding. However, most areas will
receive no hydrologic impact from this rainfall.

No significant rainfall is expected from Wednesday through Friday.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible late Friday night
and into early Saturday. Antecedent conditions are very dry, so
widespread hydrology issues are not expected.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Maloit/FIG
NEAR TERM...Maloit
SHORT TERM...Maloit
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...Maloit/FIG
HYDROLOGY...Maloit/FIG




000
FXUS61 KBOX 281928
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
328 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving cold front will bring scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms into Wednesday, with the bulk of the activity
occurring tonight. This front will push offshore Wednesday night.
High pressure then brings dry seasonable weather for Thursday.
Another cold front may bring more showers and thunderstorms Friday
or Saturday. Dry weather returns for the remainder of the holiday
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Instability remains the primary limitation for showers and
thunderstorms across southern New England this afternoon. Latest
mesoanalysis showing CAPE values starting to increase to around
500 J/kg. This is in response to some breaks in the clouds across
western MA and northern CT. Both low level and mid level lapse
rates remain poor this afternoon. As a result, have low confidence
for any strong thunderstorms across southern New England this
evening.

A cold front will slowly approach our region tonight, with a
mid level shortwave arriving late tonight. Plenty of moisture
available, so it all comes down to generating enough lift for
showers. Precipitable water values still 1.5-2.0 inches, so
locally heavy rainfall a possibility. Will mention only isolated
thunderstorms at most, owing to poor instability and time of day.

South winds continue through much of the night. Thus, looking for
more stratus and patchy fog to develop once more. This should be
most prevalent toward the south coast of MA and RI, but could very
well encompass just about all of southern New England.



&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...

Wednesday...A surface cold front will sweep across the region
later in the day. While the vast majority of the day will be dry
for most locations, there is a low risk for a few strong
thunderstorms developing in the afternoon ahead of this front.
Strong thunderstorms will be dependent upon getting enough
sunshine to increase instability, and having enough mid level
moisture lingering to permit storms to develop. While
thunderstorms remain uncertain, the highest risk will be across
Eastern MA/RI where moisture will be a bit deeper.

Wednesday night...Drier weather develops behind a departing cool
front. Humidity drops to more comfortable levels, but not by a
lot.

Seasonable temperatures through this period.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Highlights...

* High pressure brings dry weather Thursday
* A cold front brings showers and thunderstorms Friday/Saturday
* High pressure brings dry weather for the remainder of the holiday
  weekend

Overview...Relatively quiet pattern continues with broad upper level
ridge over the western U.S. and broad upper troughing over the
eastern U.S.  The ridging pushes into the center of the country by
early next week.  Models are in good agreement on the synoptic
pattern and will use a blend of available guidance for this
forecast. A cold front will move offshore Wednesday night bringing
in slightly cooler but quiet weather for Thursday.  Another cold
front will move through southern New England Friday or Saturday
(ECMWF is a bit faster than the GFS), bringing showers and
potentially thunderstorms to the area.  High pressure builds into
New England from the Great Lakes for the remainder of the holiday
weekend.

Temperatures...After slightly cooler temperatures Thursday,
temperatures will warm into the weekend.  The cold front will bring
another slightly cooler day Sunday before temperatures warm once
again.  Overall, temperatures will be right around to a few degrees
above normal with highs generally in the 80s and lows in the upper
50s to lower 60s.

Precipitation...The only shot of rain in the long term forecast is
showers and possibly thunderstorms with the cold front Friday or
Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Wednesday/...

Through 00z...Moderate confidence. Mix of VFR and MVFR conditions.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms remain main to the west of
southern New England, but could get as far east as KORE-KBDL by
29/00Z.

Tonight...Moderate confidence.  Conditions lower to MVFR-IFR
thresholds as boundary layer cools with an abundance of low level
moisture.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms also expected with
main risk between 01z and 09z.

Wednesday...Moderate confidence. MVFR-IFR conditions should
improve to mainly VFR by afternoon as low clouds/fog patches
dissipate. Low risk for a few strong thunderstorms Wed afternoon,
mainly Eastern MA/RI.

Wednesday night...High confidence. Mainly VFR conditions. Low risk
for MVFR conditions in patchy fog. Light and variable winds.

KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF trends. Moderate confidence in
timing.

KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF trends. Moderate confidence in
timing.

Outlook /Thursday through Saturday/...

Thursday...High confidence. Mainly VFR conditions. Any lingering
MVFR conditions will improve quickly to VFR. Light and variable
winds.

Friday and Saturday...Moderate confidence.  Mainly VFR conditions
and dry weather. Scattered showers and thunderstorms may result in
brief periods of MVFR conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Wednesday Night/...High confidence.

Winds and seas will generally remain below small craft advisory
thresholds through this portion of the forecast. South to
southwest wind gusts of 20 knots are expected at times with 2 to 4
foot seas across the open waters. Southeast swell may increase
seas to near 5 feet Wednesday night across the outermost coastal
waters south and east of Nantucket. Low confidence in this
happening.

Main concern is for areas of fog tonight into Wed morning across
the southern waters. May also see a few thunderstorms with brief
heavy rain overnight tonight.

Outlook /Thursday through Saturday/...

High confidence.  Mainly quiet boating weather expected.  Winds and
seas remain below SCA criteria throughout the period. However, they
will increase as a cold front approaches and then crosses over the
coastal waters sometime late Friday to Saturday. This will result in
showers and thunderstorms, which will reduce visibilities at
times.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Belk/RLG
NEAR TERM...Belk
SHORT TERM...Belk
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...Belk/RLG
MARINE...Belk/RLG




000
FXUS61 KOKX 281817
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
217 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will approach from the west this afternoon and
evening, then slowly move across the Tri-State through Wednesday.
Weak high pressure returns for Thursday through Friday. Another
cold front then approaches and passes through late Friday night
into Saturday. High pressure builds in behind the front Sunday and
Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Persistent cloud cover continues over the area, limiting
temperature rise and instability. There are some breaks in the
clouds just to the west, so cannot rule out some hit or miss
sunshine over far western zones later this afternoon.

Latest RAP limits CAPE of 500 J/Kg or greater to basically W of
the Hudson River and over 1000 J/kg to far Western Orange County.
The updated SPC Day1 Outlook which scaled back the area under
marginal risk reflects this. The HWO has been updated to reflect
the reduced areal coverage of the slight risk (no longer covers SW
CT, NYC, Nassau County, Eastern NE NJ, and WestChester County).

Also lowered highs today to reflect lesser anticipation of any
meaningful sunshine, generally 1-2 categories across the board.

For pops, latest radar/HRRR/RAP trends support most of the area
staying dry for the remainder of this afternoon, with
showers/embedded thunderstorms moving into far W zones 20-21z.
Have not been quite so aggressive in scaling back pops, as often
get isolated cell or two out ahead of main convective line, but
still have scaled back significantly.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
Latest HRRR/RAP/Radar trends indicate that pops were a bit on the
high side early this evening, especially over eastern zones. Have
adjusted pops downward accordingly through 3z.

The short wave trough is forecast to gradually move east with the
trough axis nearly overhead by 6 pm Wednesday.

Any potential severe TSTMs Tuesday evening should end by midnight
with showers ending by 10z Wednesday.

SCT instability TSTMs are possible aft 16z Wednesday with the
approach of the short wave trough axis.

Temperatures are forecast near normal through the period.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As has been the case for the last several weeks, still no hot
weather on tap for the region with minor fluctuations around the
mean. The mean upper trough will continue to reside across eastern
Canada, the Great Lakes, and Northeast, while an amplified upper
ridge over the western U.S. gradually flattens into early next
week. At the same time, an upper low near Hudson Bay translates
east.

At the surface, weak high pressure over the Midwest builds into the
area Thursday and then offshore Thursday night ahead of an
approaching cold front and pre-frontal trough. The latter of which
is associated with the upper low/trough working across eastern
Canada. There is a chance of showers and thunderstorms Friday into
Friday night with the best chance being across the interior where
the greatest instability will exist. Deep-layer shear increases with
the approaching upper trough. Dry air could be a limiting factor for
any organization. Cold front works east of the area Saturday morning
with high pressure to follow through early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
An approaching cold front passes through the region late tonight
into Wednesday morning.

S/SE winds around 10KT.

Cigs at city and western terminals 800-1300 FT through mid-
afternoon, possibly lifting to 1000-1500 FT. If so, then cigs
probably lower back near 00-01z. Showers will be possible for a
few hours, starting around midnight for the city terminals. A
thunderstorm is possible during this period, but not
likely/widespread enough to include at any terminal forecast.

     NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: Tempo or prevailing MVFR cigs possible this
afternoon.

KLGA TAF Comments: Tempo or prevailing MVFR cigs possible this
afternoon.

KEWR TAF Comments: Tempo or prevailing MVFR cigs possible this
afternoon.

KTEB TAF Comments: Cigs 1000-1500 FT could prevail all afternoon.

KHPN TAF Comments: Visibility and Cigs could remain lower than
forecast this afternoon.

KISP TAF Comments: IFR conditions could occur at any time this
afternoon - low confidence on timing.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH Sunday...

.Wednesday afternoon through Friday morning...VFR.

.Friday afternoon and night...MVFR or IFR conditions possible in
showers/tstms.

.Saturday and Sunday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Minor changes were made with this update to reflect the latest
trends in observations and guidance. The forecast appears on
track.

Winds and seas are forecast to generally remain below Small Craft
Advisory/SCA levels of 25 kt and 5 feet across the Atlantic Ocean
coastal waters through the period.

Cold frontal passages with wind shifts are forecast late
Wednesday and Friday night.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
This Afternoon through Tonight: 1/5 to 2/3 of an inch of rain is
forecast, with locally higher amounts possible in stronger
convection. Based on high surface dew points and precipitable
water contents, can not rule out isolated flash flooding of low
lying and poor drainage areas in areas experiencing locally heavy
rainfall, however minor flooding is more likely in any such area.

Friday Afternoon and Evening: Scattered showers and thunderstorms
may produce localized heavy rainfall, mainly north and west of
NYC.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GC/Maloit/DW
NEAR TERM...Maloit
SHORT TERM...GC/Maloit
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...GC/Maloit/DW
HYDROLOGY...GC/Maloit/DW




000
FXUS61 KALY 281721
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
121 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will slowly move across our region this afternoon
and tonight, resulting in widespread showers and thunderstorms.
Some storms may be severe with damaging winds and heavy rainfall.
A disturbance will move through on Wednesday with a few more
showers and thunderstorms. High pressure will then build into the
region Wednesday night into Thursday, bringing dry weather.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 115 PM EDT, scattered showers/thunderstorms were developing
along and ahead of a weak prefrontal trough/dewpoint boundary,
which extended from the western Adirondacks into extreme E/SE
Oneida Co, and southwest to east of BGM. Further west, a cold
front and strong upper level impulse was located across the
eastern Great Lakes region and western NYS.

Recent SPC analysis suggests SBCAPES in the 1500-2000 J/KG range
across central NYS extending into portions of the Mohawk Valley
and Schoharie CO region, with generally 500-1500 J/KG further
south and east, lowest across the mid Hudson Valley/Berkshires and
NW CT, where a low cloud deck remains most persistent.

We expect showers/thunderstorms to increase in areal coverage
along and just ahead of the aforementioned prefrontal
trough/boundary, initially across the Mohawk Valley/western
Adirondacks, then slowly advancing east/southeast closer to the
Capital Region/Saratoga Region and Lake George region later this
afternoon and closer to sunset. Any thunderstorms will be capable
of producing locally gusty winds and very heavy rainfall. As mid
level winds increase with the approach of the shortwave across the
eastern Great Lakes, isolated strong/damaging wind gusts could
occur within any merging cells and associated cold pools which are
generated, with this threat appearing mainly from Albany and
points N and W through sunset.

Perhaps the bigger threat will be localized intense downpours,
with some rainfall rates possibly reaching up to 2 inches/hour.
This could certainly lead to rapid ponding of water in poor
drainage/urban areas. If any cells train over one location for
any length of time, isolated flash flooding will be possible in
such areas, despite such recent dry conditions.

Temperatures will likely reach the lower/mid 80s in valley areas
from Albany north and west, with mainly 75-80 across higher
terrain, and in valley areas south and east of Albany.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The cold front will continue to move eastward across the Hudson
valley eastward into western New England this evening and
overnight. Will continue to mention likely showers and
thunderstorms for these areas, gradually tapering off from west to
east. The cold front should clear eastern portions of the area by
sunrise Wednesday.

There will still be a threat of isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms on Wednesday, as the upper level trough axis is
forecast to be positioned just to our west. Some of the storms
could be strong during the afternoon mainly for areas north and
east of the Hudson Valley depending on how much instability
develops ahead of the trough. The highest dewpoints will likely be
displaced to our east across central/eastern New England, but
lapse rates will be steepening due to the trough moving through.

Chances for leftover showers/storms should end Wednesday evening
as the trough shifts eastward into eastern New England. High
pressure will then build eastward from the Midwest and Great
Lakes, providing dry conditions and comfortably low humidity
levels with seasonable temperatures Wednesday night into Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Chances for convection as we head into the long holiday weekend
then fair weather is expected.

A vigorous short-wave is expected to be rotating about the base
of an upper level low near southern Hudson Bay Canada Thursday
night through Friday night. This feature will be accompanied by a
cold front at the surface. Showers and thunderstorms are expected
to develop and move across the region in response. Have limited
pops to chance for Friday and Friday night at this time due to
timing concerns.

The upper low is modeled to move slowly eastward across eastern
Canada over the holiday weekend eventually filling in and opening
up. Our region will remain on the southern periphery of the low
through Sunday with heights rising Sunday night and Monday as
ridging builds in.

Temperatures are expected to be seasonably warm Friday with cooler
readings by 5 to 10 degrees in the wake of the cold front for Saturday
and Sunday. Temperatures are anticipated to moderate back to normal
levels for Monday Independence Day.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
We continue to watch convection developing upstream at this time as
a few thunderstorms are just to the west of the Capital District
with a sct-bkn line of convection along the cold front in the
vicinity of I81.  Expectations are for this line of convection to
develop and mature as it approaches the Hudson Valley TAF locations
with a period of MVFR to possibly IFR conditions.  The best window
of opportunity would be from approximately 20Z Tuesday til 02Z
Wednesday.

Tonight depending on how much rain impacts the TAF sites, widespread
MVFR conditions are expected to develop for the overnight in the
wake of the convection with IFR conditions expected at KPOU and KPSF.

Southerly winds this afternoon with gusts into the teens and lower
20s at KALB during the afternoon. Winds will become light
and variable tonight.

Outlook...

Wed Night-Thu Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Fri-Fri Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sat: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A cold front will slowly move across our region this afternoon
and tonight, resulting in widespread showers and thunderstorms.
Some storms may be severe with damaging winds and heavy rainfall.
A disturbance will move through on Wednesday with a few more
showers and thunderstorms. High pressure will then build into the
region Wednesday night into Thursday, bringing dry weather.

Minimum relative humidity values this afternoon are expected to
be around 55 to 65 percent. RH values will then increase to
between 85 and 100 percent tonight. Minimum RH values on Wednesday
will be around 40 to 55 percent.

Winds today will be southerly around 5 to 10 mph, becoming
westerly tonight around 5 mph. Winds on Wednesday will be
northwest at 5 to 10 mph.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydro problems are expected over the next 5 days.
Showers and thunderstorms are likely across the region this
afternoon and tonight, ahead of and along a slow moving cold
front. Basin average rainfall will be around a half inch to an
inch, however locally heavy rainfall could result in isolated
amounts near or exceeding two inches. Ponding of water will occur
within thunderstorms, and even isolated flash flooding is possible
within persistent slow moving downpours. Antecedent conditions are
very dry though, so widespread hydro issues are not expected.

A few lingering showers and thunderstorms are possible Wednesday
with light qpf amounts.

Dry weather will return by Thursday, with high pressure moving
back in across the region.

The latest drought monitor now has most of our region labeled
`Abnormally Dry` (D0). In fact, over the past 30 days, most of our
region is approximately 1-3 inches below normal in terms of
rainfall.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...KL/BGM/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA/BGM
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...NAS/JPV




000
FXUS61 KALY 281717
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
117 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will slowly move across our region this afternoon
and tonight, resulting in widespread showers and thunderstorms.
Some storms may be severe with damaging winds and heavy rainfall.
A disturbance will move through on Wednesday with a few more
showers and thunderstorms. High pressure will then build into the
region Wednesday night into Thursday, bringing dry weather.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 115 PM EDT, scattered showers/thunderstorms were developing
along and ahead of a weak prefrontal trough/dewpoint boundary,
which extended from the western Adirondacks into extreme E/SE
Oneida Co, and southwest to east of BGM. Further west, a cold
front and strong upper level impulse was located across the
eastern Great Lakes region and western NYS.

Recent SPC analysis suggests SBCAPES in the 1500-2000 J/KG range
across central NYS extending into portions of the Mohawk Valley
and Schoharie CO region, with generally 500-1500 J/KG further
south and east, lowest across the mid Hudson Valley/Berkshires and
NW CT, where a low cloud deck remains most persistent.

We expect showers/thunderstorms to increase in areal coverage
along and just ahead of the aforementioned prefrontal
trough/boundary, initially across the Mohawk Valley/western
Adirondacks, then slowly advancing east/southeast closer to the
Capital Region/Saratoga Region and Lake George region later this
afternoon and closer to sunset. Any thunderstorms will be capable
of producing locally gusty winds and very heavy rainfall. As mid
level winds increase with the approach of the shortwave across the
eastern Great Lakes, isolated strong/damaging wind gusts could
occur within any merging cells and associated cold pools which are
generated, with this threat appearing mainly from Albany and
points N and W through sunset.

Perhaps the bigger threat will be localized intense downpours,
with some rainfall rates possibly reaching up to 2 inches/hour.
This could certainly lead to rapid ponding of water in poor
drainage/urban areas. If any cells train over one locations for
any length of time, isolated flash flooding will be possible in
such areas, despite such dry conditions.

Temperatures will likely reach the lower/mid 80s in valley areas
from Albany north and west, with mainly 75-80 across higher
terrain, and in valley areas south and east of Albany.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The cold front will continue to move eastward across the Hudson
valley eastward into western New England this evening and
overnight. Will continue to mention likely showers and
thunderstorms for these areas, gradually tapering off from west to
east. The cold front should clear eastern portions of the area by
sunrise Wednesday.

There will still be a threat of isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms on Wednesday, as the upper level trough axis is
forecast to be positioned just to our west. Some of the storms
could be strong during the afternoon mainly for areas north and
east of the Hudson Valley depending on how much instability
develops ahead of the trough. The highest dewpoints will likely be
displaced to our east across central/eastern New England, but
lapse rates will be steepening due to the trough moving through.

Chances for leftover showers/storms should end Wednesday evening
as the trough shifts eastward into eastern New England. High
pressure will then build eastward from the Midwest and Great
Lakes, providing dry conditions and comfortably low humidity
levels with seasonable temperatures Wednesday night into Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Chances for convection as we head into the long holiday weekend
then fair weather is expected.

A vigorous short-wave is expected to be rotating about the base
of an upper level low near southern Hudson Bay Canada Thursday
night through Friday night. This feature will be accompanied by a
cold front at the surface. Showers and thunderstorms are expected
to develop and move across the region in response. Have limited
pops to chance for Friday and Friday night at this time due to
timing concerns.

The upper low is modeled to move slowly eastward across eastern
Canada over the holiday weekend eventually filling in and opening
up. Our region will remain on the southern periphery of the low
through Sunday with heights rising Sunday night and Monday as
ridging builds in.

Temperatures are expected to be seasonably warm Friday with cooler
readings by 5 to 10 degrees in the wake of the cold front for Saturday
and Sunday. Temperatures are anticipated to moderate back to normal
levels for Monday Independence Day.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
We continue to watch convection developing upstream at this time as
a few thunderstorms are just to the west of the Capital District
with a sct-bkn line of convection along the cold front in the
vicinity of I81.  Expectations are for this line of convection to
develop and mature as it approaches the Hudson Valley TAF locations
with a period of MVFR to possibly IFR conditions.  The best window
of opportunity would be from approximately 20Z Tuesday til 02Z
Wednesday.

Tonight depending on how much rain impacts the TAF sites, widespread
MVFR conditions are expected to develop for the overnight in the
wake of the convection with IFR conditions expected at KPOU and KPSF.

Southerly winds this afternoon with gusts into the teens and lower
20s at KALB during the afternoon. Winds will become light
and variable tonight.

Outlook...

Wed Night-Thu Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Fri-Fri Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sat: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A cold front will slowly move across our region this afternoon
and tonight, resulting in widespread showers and thunderstorms.
Some storms may be severe with damaging winds and heavy rainfall.
A disturbance will move through on Wednesday with a few more
showers and thunderstorms. High pressure will then build into the
region Wednesday night into Thursday, bringing dry weather.

Minimum relative humidity values this afternoon are expected to
be around 55 to 65 percent. RH values will then increase to
between 85 and 100 percent tonight. Minimum RH values on Wednesday
will be around 40 to 55 percent.

Winds today will be southerly around 5 to 10 mph, becoming
westerly tonight around 5 mph. Winds on Wednesday will be
northwest at 5 to 10 mph.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydro problems are expected over the next 5 days.
Showers and thunderstorms are likely across the region this
afternoon and tonight, ahead of and along a slow moving cold
front. Basin average rainfall will be around a half inch to an
inch, however locally heavy rainfall could result in isolated
amounts near or exceeding two inches. Ponding of water will occur
within thunderstorms, and even isolated flash flooding is possible
within persistent slow moving downpours. Antecedent conditions are
very dry though, so widespread hydro issues are not expected.

A few lingering showers and thunderstorms are possible Wednesday
with light qpf amounts.

Dry weather will return by Thursday, with high pressure moving
back in across the region.

The latest drought monitor now has most of our region labeled
`Abnormally Dry` (D0). In fact, over the past 30 days, most of our
region is approximately 1-3 inches below normal in terms of
rainfall.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...KL/BGM/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...BGM/IAA
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...NAS/JPV




000
FXUS61 KOKX 281717
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
117 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will approach from the west this afternoon and
evening, then slowly move across the Tri-State through Wednesday.
Weak high pressure returns for Thursday through Friday. Another
cold front then approaches and passes through late Friday night
into Saturday. High pressure builds in behind the front Sunday and
Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Persistent cloud cover continues over the area, limiting
temperature rise and instability. There are some breaks in the
clouds just to the west, so cannot rule out some hit or miss
sunshine over far western zones later this afternoon.

Latest RAP limits CAPE of 500 J/Kg or greater to basically W of
the Hudson River and over 1000 J/kg to far Western Orange County.
The updated SPC Day1 Outlook which scaled back the area under
marginal risk reflects this. The HWO has been updated to reflect
the reduced areal coverage of the slight risk (no longer covers SW
CT, NYC, Nassau County, Eastern NE NJ, and WestChester County).

Also lowered highs today to reflect lesser anticipation of any
meaningful sunshine, generally 1-2 categories across the board.

For pops, latest radar/HRRR/RAP trends support most of the area
staying dry for the remainder of this afternoon, with
showers/embedded thunderstorms moving into far W zones 20-21z.
Have not been quite so aggressive in scaling back pops, as often
get isolated cell or two out ahead of main convective line, but
still have scaled back significantly.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
Latest HRRR/RAP/Radar trends indicate that pops were a bit on the
high side early this evening, especially over eastern zones. Have
adjusted pops downward accordingly through 3z.

The short wave trough is forecast to gradually move east with the
trough axis nearly overhead by 6 pm Wednesday.

Any potential severe TSTMs Tuesday evening should end by midnight
with showers ending by 10z Wednesday.

SCT instability TSTMs are possible aft 16z Wednesday with the
approach of the short wave trough axis.

Temperatures are forecast near normal through the period.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As has been the case for the last several weeks, still no hot
weather on tap for the region with minor fluctuations around the
mean. The mean upper trough will continue to reside across eastern
Canada, the Great Lakes, and Northeast, while an amplified upper
ridge over the western U.S. gradually flattens into early next
week. At the same time, an upper low near Hudson Bay translates
east.

At the surface, weak high pressure over the Midwest builds into the
area Thursday and then offshore Thursday night ahead of an
approaching cold front and pre-frontal trough. The latter of which
is associated with the upper low/trough working across eastern
Canada. There is a chance of showers and thunderstorms Friday into
Friday night with the best chance being across the interior where
the greatest instability will exist. Deep-layer shear increases with
the approaching upper trough. Dry air could be a limiting factor for
any organization. Cold front works east of the area Saturday morning
with high pressure to follow through early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A cold front approaches later today and passes through the region
late tonight through Wednesday morning.

S/SE winds around 10KT.

Cigs at city and western terminals 700-1200 ft through early
afternoon, possibly lifting later this afternoon before a chance
of showers and tstms late in the day/early evening.

     NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: IFR cigs could prevail all afternoon. Late
day/early evening shra/tstm timing could be off by an hour or
two...forecast is more likely to be too early with rainfall.

KLGA TAF Comments: IFR cigs could prevail all afternoon. Late
day/early evening shra/tstm timing could be off by an hour or
two...forecast is more likely to be too early with rainfall.

KEWR TAF Comments: IFR cigs could prevail all afternoon. Late
day/early evening shra/tstm timing could be off by an hour or
two...forecast is more likely to be too early with rainfall.

The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is YELLOW...which implies
slant range visibility 4-6SM outside of cloud.

KTEB TAF Comments: IFR cigs could prevail all afternoon. Late
day/early evening shra/tstm timing could be off by an hour or
two...forecast is more likely to be too early with rainfall.

KHPN TAF Comments: IFR cigs could prevail all afternoon.

KISP TAF Comments: Cigs 1000-1500 could prevail most of the
afternoon.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.Wednesday morning...MVFR and IFR/lower (coastal terminals)
conditions possible via morning fog/low clouds and rain.

.Wednesday afternoon through Friday morning...VFR.

.Friday night...MVFR or IFR conditions possible in showers/tstms.

.Saturday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Minor changes were made with this update to reflect the latest
trends in observations and guidance. The forecast appears on
track.

Winds and seas are forecast to generally remain below Small Craft
Advisory/SCA levels of 25 kt and 5 feet across the Atlantic Ocean
coastal waters through the period.

Cold frontal passages with wind shifts are forecast late
Wednesday and Friday night.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
This Afternoon through Tonight: 1/5 to 2/3 of an inch of rain is
forecast, with locally higher amounts possible in stronger
convection. Based on high surface dew points and precipitable
water contents, can not rule out isolated flash flooding of low
lying and poor drainage areas in areas experiencing locally heavy
rainfall, however minor flooding is more likely in any such area.

Friday Afternoon and Evening: Scattered showers and thunderstorms
may produce localized heavy rainfall, mainly north and west of
NYC.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Maloit/GC/DW
NEAR TERM...Maloit
SHORT TERM...Maloit/GC
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...JC/MPS
MARINE...Maloit/GC/DW
HYDROLOGY...Maloit/GC/DW




000
FXUS61 KOKX 281555
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1155 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will approach from the west this afternoon and
evening, then slowly move across the Tri-State through Wednesday.
Weak high pressure returns for Thursday through Friday. Another
cold front then approaches and passes through late Friday night
into Saturday. High pressure builds in behind the front Sunday and
Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A short wave trough will be moving SE toward the area along with
its surface cold front reflection this afternoon.

Showers lingering a tad longer over far E Long Island than
originally forecast, so have upped pops there. Also, noting
extensive cloud cover over the area, have slowed down timing of
onset of thunder across the area, as any instability will be slow
to be achieved.

Latest high resolution models suggest that any significant CAPE
(1000 J/kg or more) will be confined to areas mainly W of the
Hudson River this afternoon. Also looking at latest regional radar
and HRRR suggest that most areas could remain dry through around
21z, so have reduced pops through this afternoon as well. In
addition, have now confined any mention of small hail, gusty winds
and heavy rain to far Western Orange county at 21z, consistent
with this.


In any case, there is a Slight Risk or severe TSTMs mainly for
Orange County and a Marginal Risk further east across NYC and SW
CT...mainly aft 20z with damaging winds being the primary threat.
The marginal risk area likely is over done, given current
expectation for significant CAPE to be focused mainly W of the
Hudson River.

An Outlook was issued for these potential hazards and impacts.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
The short wave trough is forecast to gradually move east with the
trough axis nearly overhead by 6 pm Wednesday.

Any potential severe TSTMs Tuesday evening should end by midnight
with showers ending by 10z Wednesday.

SCT instability TSTMs are possible aft 16z Wednesday with the
approach of the short wave trough axis.

Temperatures are forecast near normal through the period.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As has been the case for the last several weeks, still no hot
weather on tap for the region with minor fluctuations around the
mean. The mean upper trough will continue to reside across eastern
Canada, the Great Lakes, and Northeast, while an amplified upper
ridge over the western U.S. gradually flattens into early next
week. At the same time, an upper low near Hudson Bay translates
east.

At the surface, weak high pressure over the Midwest builds into the
area Thursday and then offshore Thursday night ahead of an
approaching cold front and pre-frontal trough. The latter of which
is associated with the upper low/trough working across eastern
Canada. There is a chance of showers and thunderstorms Friday into
Friday night with the best chance being across the interior where
the greatest instability will exist. Deep-layer shear increases with
the approaching upper trough. Dry air could be a limiting factor for
any organization. Cold front works east of the area Saturday morning
with high pressure to follow through early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A cold front approaches later today and passes through the region
late tonight through Wednesday morning.

S/SE winds around 10KT.

Cigs at city and western terminals 700-1200 ft through early
afternoon, possibly lifting later this afternoon before a chance
of showers and tstms late in the day/early evening.

     NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: IFR cigs could prevail all afternoon. Late
day/early evening shra/tstm timing could be off by an hour or
two...forecast is more likely to be too early with rainfall.

KLGA TAF Comments: IFR cigs could prevail all afternoon. Late
day/early evening shra/tstm timing could be off by an hour or
two...forecast is more likely to be too early with rainfall.

KEWR TAF Comments: IFR cigs could prevail all afternoon. Late
day/early evening shra/tstm timing could be off by an hour or
two...forecast is more likely to be too early with rainfall.

The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is YELLOW...which implies
slant range visibility 4-6SM outside of cloud.

KTEB TAF Comments: IFR cigs could prevail all afternoon. Late
day/early evening shra/tstm timing could be off by an hour or
two...forecast is more likely to be too early with rainfall.

KHPN TAF Comments: IFR cigs could prevail all afternoon.

KISP TAF Comments: Cigs 1000-1500 could prevail most of the
afternoon.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.Wednesday morning...MVFR and IFR/lower (coastal terminals)
conditions possible via morning fog/low clouds and rain.

.Wednesday afternoon through Friday morning...VFR.

.Friday night...MVFR or IFR conditions possible in showers/tstms.

.Saturday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Made minor changes this update to reflect the latest trends in
observations and guidance. The main change was to slow down the
timing and extent of thunder of the waters this afternoon/early
this evening.

Winds and seas are forecast to generally remain below Small Craft
Advisory/SCA levels of 25 kt and 5 feet across the Atlantic Ocean
coastal waters through the period.

Cold frontal passages with wind shifts are forecast late
Wednesday and Friday night.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
This Afternoon through Tonight: 1/4 to 2/3 of an inch of rain is
forecast, with locally higher amounts possible in stronger
convection. Based on high surface dew points and precipitable
water contents, can not rule out isolated flash flooding of low
lying and poor drainage areas in areas experiencing locally heavy
rainfall.

Friday Afternoon and Evening: Scattered showers and thunderstorms
may produce localized heavy rainfall, mainly north and west of
NYC.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GC/DW
NEAR TERM...GC/Maloit
SHORT TERM...GC
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...JC/MPS
MARINE...GC/Maloit/DW
HYDROLOGY...GC/DW




000
FXUS61 KALY 281520
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
1120 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will slowly move across our region this afternoon
and tonight, resulting in widespread showers and thunderstorms.
Some storms may be severe with damaging winds and heavy rainfall.
A disturbance will move through on Wednesday with a few more
showers and thunderstorms. High pressure will then build into the
region Wednesday night into Thursday, bringing dry weather.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 1100 AM EDT...

...Continuing to closely monitor the potential for severe
thunderstorms across much of the region this afternoon into this
evening...

Cold front appears to be along the I81 corridor yet ample stratus
was lingering across most of our local region. This has slowed
down the heating a bit but several breaks are noticeable in the
Schoharie Valley and through the Adirondacks. LAPS/SPC Mesoscale
windows show SBCAPES climbing to around 1k J/KG (especially where
breaks are more pronounced and along differential heating
boundaries) with PWATS generally between 1-1.25" which is near to
just above normal. Expectations are as the upper trough over
Michigan approaches and a surface focus with the slow moving
frontal boundary that convection should initiate over the next
couple of hours as we approach and exceed our convective
temperature. SPC continues with the slight risk at this time as
wet microbursts appear to be the main severe threat. As for
rainfall, while anomalies are not too high and antecedent dry
conditions of late, there is an outside chance for flooding/flash
flooding as training of convection could occur due to slow
movement of the surface front and modest winds aloft. So for this
update, removed pops up til noon then continued with the higher
pops through the afternoon and evening hours. Slowed down the
diurnal temperature climb a bit along with more clouds initially
before become partly sunny.

Prev disc...
A moist and increasingly unstable air mass will be in place
today. Already early this morning temperatures are quite mild in
the 60s, with dewpoints also in the 60s making it humid. Lots of
low stratus clouds around, but most of the area will see breaks
of sunshine by late morning into early afternoon, which will allow
for moderate instability to develop. The only area where the
stratus clouds and more stable conditions could hold on longer is
across eastern Dutchess, southern Berkshire, and Litchfield
counties where there is a Marginal Risk of severe storms, compared
to the greater Slight Risk farther west across the rest of the
area.

Large-scale ascent will result from low level convergence along a
slow moving cold front that will track eastward across the region
this afternoon and evening, combined with cyclonic vorticity
advection ahead of an upper level trough pushing eastward through
the eastern Great Lakes. This pattern will result in widespread
development of showers and storms, with hi-res models indicating
convective initiation across the western Adirondacks and Mohawk
Valley by early this afternoon. Storms will intensify and move
eastward into the Catskills and Hudson valley by mid to late
afternoon.

Thunderstorms could become severe with damaging wind the primary
threat. SBCAPE values around 1000-1500 J/Kg will provide enough
buoyancy to maintain persistent multicells given increasing deep
layer shear of 30-40 kt. Mitigating factor to large hail will be
relatively weak mid level lapse rates around 6 deg/km and `thin`
CAPE profile aloft. However, forecast sounding profiles also
showing potential for heavy rainfall within storms, which could
result in isolated flash flooding. See hydro section for details.

Showers and storms will move into western New England during the
evening, and should tend to weaken but still may produce gusty
winds and downpours.

High temps expected to reach the upper 70s to lower 80s in most
locations, but will drop into the 60s during any persistent
showers or storms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The cold front will continue to move eastward across the Hudson
valley eastward into western New England this evening and
overnight. Will continue to mention likely showers and
thunderstorms for these areas, gradually tapering off from west to
east. The cold front should clear eastern portions of the area by
sunrise Wednesday.

There will still be a threat of isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms on Wednesday, as the upper level trough axis is
forecast to be positioned just to our west. Some of the storms
could be strong during the afternoon mainly for areas north and
east of the Hudson Valley depending on how much instability
develops ahead of the trough. The highest dewpoints will likely be
displaced to our east across central/eastern New England, but
lapse rates will be steepening due to the trough moving through.

Chances for leftover showers/storms should end Wednesday evening
as the trough shifts eastward into eastern New England. High
pressure will then build eastward from the Midwest and Great
Lakes, providing dry conditions and comfortably low humidity
levels with seasonable temperatures Wednesday night into Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Chances for convection as we head into the long holiday weekend
then fair weather is expected.

A vigorous short-wave is expected to be rotating about the base
of an upper level low near southern Hudson Bay Canada Thursday
night through Friday night. This feature will be accompanied by a
cold front at the surface. Showers and thunderstorms are expected
to develop and move across the region in response. Have limited
pops to chance for Friday and Friday night at this time due to
timing concerns.

The upper low is modeled to move slowly eastward across eastern
Canada over the holiday weekend eventually filling in and opening
up. Our region will remain on the southern periphery of the low
through Sunday with heights rising Sunday night and Monday as
ridging builds in.

Temperatures are expected to be seasonably warm Friday with cooler
readings by 5 to 10 degrees in the wake of the cold front for Saturday
and Sunday. Temperatures are anticipated to moderate back to normal
levels for Monday Independence Day.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR-IFR conditions are expected to improve to VFR this morning.
Convection will develop across the area impacting the TAFs sites
this afternoon and evening as cold front approaches and gradually
crosses the area.

Guidance indicates convection will initiate by afternoon across
the western Adirondacks and western Mohawk Valley with the storms
moving eastward across the area through the afternoon hours and the
evening hours. Have included a TEMPO group for thunderstorms with
MVFR conditions in each TAF. Brief IFR conditions can be expected
with the some storms but don`t have the confidence for timing to
include in TAFs. Some of the thunderstorms may become strong to
severe. Aloft an approaching short-wave will be rotating through
the base of the upper trough as the cold front approaches and this
will occur during the peak heating of the day. With dew points in
the 60s the airmass will become quite unstable. The primary threat
will be strong to damaging winds gusts along with locally heavy
rainfall.

Widespread MVFR conditions are expected to develop for the overnight
in the wake of the convection with IFR conditions expected at
KPOU and KPSF.

Southerly winds today with gusts into the teens at KALB during
the afternoon. Winds will become light tonight.

Outlook...

Wed Night-Thu Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Fri-Fri Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sat: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A cold front will slowly move across our region this afternoon
and tonight, resulting in widespread showers and thunderstorms.
Some storms may be severe with damaging winds and heavy rainfall.
A disturbance will move through on Wednesday with a few more
showers and thunderstorms. High pressure will then build into the
region Wednesday night into Thursday, bringing dry weather.

Minimum relative humidity values this afternoon are expected to
be around 55 to 65 percent. RH values will then increase to
between 85 and 100 percent tonight. Minimum RH values on Wednesday
will be around 40 to 55 percent.

Winds today will be southerly around 5 to 10 mph, becoming
westerly tonight around 5 mph. Winds on Wednesday will be
northwest at 5 to 10 mph.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydro problems are expected over the next 5 days.
Showers and thunderstorms are likely across the region this
afternoon and tonight, ahead of and along a slow moving cold
front. Basin average rainfall will be around a half inch to an
inch, however locally heavy rainfall could result in isolated
amounts near or exceeding two inches. Ponding of water will occur
within thunderstorms, and even isolated flash flooding is possible
within persistent slow moving downpours. Antecedent conditions are
very dry though, so widespread hydro issues are not expected.

A few lingering showers and thunderstorms are possible Wednesday
with light qpf amounts.

Dry weather will return by Thursday, with high pressure moving
back in across the region.

The latest drought monitor now has most of our region labeled
`Abnormally Dry` (D0). In fact, over the past 30 days, most of our
region is approximately 1-3 inches below normal in terms of
rainfall.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...BGM/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...NAS/JPV




000
FXUS61 KOKX 281518
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1118 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will approach from the west this afternoon and
evening, then slowly move across the Tri-State through Wednesday.
Weak high pressure returns for Thursday through Friday. Another
cold front then approaches and passes through late Friday night
into Saturday. High pressure builds in behind the front Sunday and
Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A short wave trough will be moving SE toward the area along with
its surface cold front reflection this afternoon.

Showers lingering a tad longer over far E Long Island than
originally forecast, so have upped pops there. Also, noting
extensive cloud cover over the area, have slowed down timing of
onset of thunder across the area, as any instability will be slow
to be achieved.

Latest high resolution models suggest that any significant CAPE
(1000 J/kg or more) will be confined to areas mainly W of the
Hudson River this afternoon. Also looking at latest regional radar
and HRRR suggest that most areas could remain dry through around
21z, so have reduced pops through this afternoon as well. In
addition, have now confined any mention of small hail, gusty winds
and heavy rain to far Western Orange county at 21z, consistent
with this.


In any case, there is a Slight Risk or severe TSTMs mainly for
Orange County and a Marginal Risk further east across NYC and SW
CT...mainly aft 20z with damaging winds being the primary threat.
The marginal risk area likely is over done, given current
expectation for significant CAPE to be focused mainly W of the
Hudson River.

An Outlook was issued for these potential hazards and impacts.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
The short wave trough is forecast to gradually move east with the
trough axis nearly overhead by 6 pm Wednesday.

Any potential severe TSTMs Tuesday evening should end by midnight
with showers ending by 10z Wednesday.

SCT instability TSTMs are possible aft 16z Wednesday with the
approach of the short wave trough axis.

Temperatures are forecast near normal through the period.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As has been the case for the last several weeks, still no hot
weather on tap for the region with minor fluctuations around the
mean. The mean upper trough will continue to reside across eastern
Canada, the Great Lakes, and Northeast, while an amplified upper
ridge over the western U.S. gradually flattens into early next
week. At the same time, an upper low near Hudson Bay translates
east.

At the surface, weak high pressure over the Midwest builds into the
area Thursday and then offshore Thursday night ahead of an
approaching cold front and pre-frontal trough. The latter of which
is associated with the upper low/trough working across eastern
Canada. There is a chance of showers and thunderstorms Friday into
Friday night with the best chance being across the interior where
the greatest instability will exist. Deep-layer shear increases with
the approaching upper trough. Dry air could be a limiting factor for
any organization. Cold front works east of the area Saturday morning
with high pressure to follow through early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A cold front approaches later today and passes through the region
late tonight through Wednesday morning.

S/SE winds around 10KT.

Cigs around 1000ft into early afternoon, possibly lifting later this
afternoon before a chance of showers and tstms late in the day.

     NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: IFR cigs could prevail through at least 17-18z.
Late day/early evening shra/tstm timing could be off by an hour or
two...forecast is more likely to be too early with rainfall.

KLGA TAF Comments: IFR cigs could prevail through at least 17-18z.
Late day/early evening shra/tstm timing could be off by an hour
or two...forecast is more likely to be too early with rainfall.

KEWR TAF Comments: IFR cigs could prevail through at least 17-
18z,and MVFR cigs might not materialize. Late day/early evening
shra/tstm timing could be off by an hour or two...forecast is more
likely to be too early with rainfall.

The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is YELLOW...which implies
slant range visibility 4-6SM outside of cloud.

KTEB TAF Comments: IFR cigs could prevail through at least 17-18z.
Late day/early evening shra/tstm timing could be off by an hour
or two...forecast is more likely to be too early with rainfall.

KHPN TAF Comments: IFR cigs could prevail most of the day.

KISP TAF Comments: VFR could prevail through the rest of the morning.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.Wednesday morning...MVFR and IFR/lower (coastal terminals)
conditions possible via morning fog/low clouds and rain.

.Wednesday afternoon through Friday morning...VFR.

.Friday night...MVFR or IFR conditions possible in showers/tstms.

.Saturday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Made minor changes this update to reflect the latest trends in
observations and guidance. The main change was to slow down the
timing and extent of thunder of the waters this afternoon/early
this evening.

Winds and seas are forecast to generally remain below Small Craft
Advisory/SCA levels of 25 kt and 5 feet across the Atlantic Ocean
coastal waters through the period.

Cold frontal passages with wind shifts are forecast late
Wednesday and Friday night.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
This Afternoon through Tonight: 1/4 to 2/3 of an inch of rain is
forecast, with locally higher amounts possible in stronger
convection. Based on high surface dew points and precipitable
water contents, can not rule out isolated flash flooding of low
lying and poor drainage areas in areas experiencing locally heavy
rainfall.

Friday Afternoon and Evening: Scattered showers and thunderstorms
may produce localized heavy rainfall, mainly north and west of
NYC.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Maloit/GC/DW
NEAR TERM...Maloit/GC
SHORT TERM...GC
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...JC/MPS
MARINE...Maloit/GC/DW
HYDROLOGY...Maloit/GC/DW




000
FXUS61 KOKX 281359
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
959 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front over western Pennsylvania this morning will move
slowly east today passing across the area on Wednesday. Weak
high pressure returns for Thursday through Friday. Another cold
front then approaches and passes through late Friday night into
Saturday. High pressure builds in behind the front Sunday and
Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Dissipating band of showers across far eastern LI will work east
through mid morning. For the rest of the morning, there will be a
low chance of showers until airmass destabilizes enough to
warrant the mention of thunderstorms this afternoon. However, did
keep LI and CT showers through the day based on marine air keeping
the region stable. In fact, any strong convection across the
interior is not likely until late this afternoon. There is
definitely a good deal of uncertainty as to whether this activity
will be able to reach the coast late today into this evening.

Otherwise, low stratus and patchy fog, locally dense will prevail
until around 15z.

A short wave trough will be moving SE toward the area along with
its` surface cold front reflection. With abundant low level
moisture in place and the cold front serving as the trigger, SCT
TSTMS are forecast to develop ahead of the cold front and move
toward the Lower Hudson Valley and Northern NJ aft 18z. The degree
of surface based instability is uncertain based on clouds
dissipating upstream.

In any case, there is a Slight Risk or severe TSTMs mainly for
Orange County and a Marginal Risk further east across NYC and SW
CT...mainly aft 20z with damaging winds being the primary threat.
Based on high sfc dew points and precipitable water contents, can
not rule out isolated flash flooding of low lying and poor
drainage areas.

An Outlook was issued for these potential hazards and impacts.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
The short wave trough is forecast to gradually move east with the
trough axis nearly overhead by 6 pm Wednesday.

Any potential severe TSTMs Tuesday evening should end by midnight
with showers ending by 10z Wednesday.

SCT instability TSTMs are possible aft 16z Wednesday with the
approach of the short wave trough axis.

Temperatures are forecast near normal through the period.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As has been the case for the last several weeks, still no hot
weather on tap for the region with minor fluctuations around the
mean. The mean upper trough will continue to reside across eastern
Canada, the Great Lakes, and Northeast, while an amplified upper
ridge over the western U.S. gradually flattens into early next
week. At the same time, an upper low near Hudson Bay translates
east.

At the surface, weak high pressure over the Midwest builds into the
area Thursday and then offshore Thursday night ahead of an
approaching cold front and pre-frontal trough. The latter of which
is associated with the upper low/trough working across eastern
Canada. There is a chance of showers and thunderstorms Friday into
Friday night with the best chance being across the interior where
the greatest instability will exist. Deep-layer shear increases with
the approaching upper trough. Dry air could be a limiting factor for
any organization. Cold front works east of the area Saturday morning
with high pressure to follow through early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A cold front approaches later today and passes through the region
late tonight through Wednesday morning.

S/SE winds around 10KT.

Cigs around 1000ft into early afternoon, possibly lifting later this
afternoon before a chance of showers and tstms late in the day.

...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http://www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: IFR cigs could prevail through at least 17-18z.
Late day/early evening shra/tstm timing could be off by an hour or
two...forecast is more likely to be too early with rainfall.

KLGA TAF Comments: IFR cigs could prevail through at least 17-18z.
Late day/early evening shra/tstm timing could be off by an hour
or two...forecast is more likely to be too early with rainfall.

KEWR TAF Comments: IFR cigs could prevail through at least 17-
18z,and MVFR cigs might not materialize. Late day/early evening
shra/tstm timing could be off by an hour or two...forecast is more
likely to be too early with rainfall.

The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is YELLOW...which implies
slant range visibility 4-6SM outside of cloud.

KTEB TAF Comments: IFR cigs could prevail through at least 17-18z.
Late day/early evening shra/tstm timing could be off by an hour
or two...forecast is more likely to be too early with rainfall.

KHPN TAF Comments: IFR cigs could prevail most of the day.

KISP TAF Comments: VFR could prevail through the rest of the morning.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.Wednesday morning...MVFR and IFR/lower (coastal terminals)
conditions possible via morning fog/low clouds and rain.

.Wednesday afternoon through Friday morning...VFR.

.Friday night...MVFR or IFR conditions possible in showers/tstms.

.Saturday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas are forecast to generally remain below Small Craft
Advisory/SCA levels of 25 kt and 5 feet across the Atlantic Ocean
coastal waters through the period.

This Morning...Vsby of 1 to 3 nm possible in patchy fog with
scattered showers.

Late Afternoon through Tonight...Scattered TSTMs are possible with
the approach of a cold front along with Vsby of 1 to 3 NM in
patchy fog.

Cold frontal passages with wind shifts are forecast late
Wednesday and Friday night.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
This Morning: Up to 1/2-inch rainfall is possible across Long
Island and Southern CT.

This Afternoon through Tonight: 1/4 to 3/4-inches possible with
isolated higher amounts in heavier showers and SCT TSTMS. Can not
rule out isolated flash flooding of low lying poor drainage areas.

Friday Afternoon and Evening: Scattered showers and thunderstorms
may produce localized heavy rainfall, mainly north and west of
NYC.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GC/DW
NEAR TERM...GC
SHORT TERM...GC
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...JC/MPS
MARINE...GC/DW
HYDROLOGY...GC/DW




000
FXUS61 KBOX 281351
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
951 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving cold front will bring scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms into Wednesday, with the bulk of the activity
occurring tonight. This front will push offshore Wednesday night.
High pressure then brings dry seasonable weather for Thursday.
Another cold front may bring more showers and thunderstorms Friday
or Saturday. Dry weather returns for the remainder of the holiday
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
950 AM Update...

A few showers remain across southern New England during the mid
morning. These will remain hit-and-miss, so will only keep fairly
low rainfall chances through the rest of today.

Still evaluating thunderstorm potential for later today. Latest
mesoanalysis continues to show poor instability across southern
New England, with less than 300 J/kg of CAPE. Where the clouds
have broken out ahead of a cold front, CAPE values have increased
to 500-1000 J/kg. While this is well west of our region, it does
indicate the potential which could develop if we can break out
from beneath our present cloud deck. Will continue to monitor this
aspect.

Otherwise, the forecast was mostly on track. Made minor tweaks to
reflect observed trends.

Previous discussion...

While warm advection will continue to result in the risk for a
few spot showers, dry weather will dominate the rest of today with
bulk of forcing/instability well to our northwest ahead of a cold
front. Deep low level moisture will also result in considerable
cloudiness at times, but still expect peeks of sunshine especially
across southeast New England.

High temps will mainly be in the upper 70s to lower 80s, but a few
locales may reach into the middle 80s.  It will also feel somewhat
humid outside with dewpoints well into the 60s, something we have
not seen much of so far this month.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
***Scattered showers/thunderstorms with brief localized heavy
rainfall possible between 9 pm tonight and 5 am Wednesday morning
but severe weather threat is rather low***

Tonight...

Showers and thunderstorms will be on going across Eastern NY early
this evening.  This activity will attempt to work into western
MA/Northern CT by mid to late evening, but should weaken with
diminishing instability/poor mid level lapse rates.  Still may see
some thunder and brief locally heavy rainfall in these locations.
Greater threat for scattered showers/thunderstorms with brief
locally heavy rainfall may set up across Eastern MA/Eastern CT and
RI near or after midnight. This on the nose of a 30 to 40 knot
southerly low level jet, MUcapes between 200 and 500 J/kg, and PWATS
between 1.5 and 2 inches. Guidance not completely sold on where and
if this sets up, but given the above parameters certainly a
possibility.  Severe weather threat looks rather low given limited
instability/timing. Bulk of the activity should be offshore near
daybreak.  Low temps will mainly be in the 60s and may see some
patchy fog develop.

Wednesday...

The actual surface cold front will sweep across the region on
Wednesday.  While the vast majority of the day will be dry, there is
a low risk for a few strong thunderstorms developing Wed afternoon
ahead of the front.  Whether or not this activity develops hinges on
if enough mid level moisture remains. While this is uncertain, the
highest risk is across Eastern MA/RI where moisture will be a bit
deeper.

We should see 1000+ j/kg of Cape develop across Eastern New England
ahead of the front along with 0 to 6 km shear values of 30 to 40
knots.  Colder air moving in aloft will result in somewhat steeper
mid level lapse rates, but nothing too extreme.

The above parameters are supportive for the possibility of a few
strong thunderstorms Wed afternoon.  However, mid levels of the
atmosphere will be drying out and may limit or prevent convection.
So in a nutshell, there is a low risk for a few strong thunderstorms
Wednesday afternoon with an isolated strong wind/hail threat if dry
mid level air can be overcome. Highest risk across Eastern MA/RI
between noon and 6 pm.

High temps should generally reach into the lower to middle 80s away
from the immediate coast.  Still somewhat humid with dewpoints in
the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Highlights...

* High pressure brings dry weather Thursday
* A cold front brings showers and thunderstorms Friday/Saturday
* High pressure brings dry weather for the remainder of the holiday
  weekend

Overview...Relatively quiet pattern continues with broad upper level
ridge over the western U.S. and broad upper troughing over the
eastern U.S.  The ridging pushes into the center of the country by
early next week.  Models are in good agreement on the synoptic
pattern and will use a blend of available guidance for this
forecast. A cold front will move offshore Wednesday night bringing
in slightly cooler but quiet weather for Thursday.  Another cold
front will move through southern New England Friday or Saturday
(ECMWF is a bit faster than the GFS), bringing showers and
potentially thunderstorms to the area.  High pressure builds into
New England from the Great Lakes for the remainder of the holiday
weekend.

Temperatures...After slightly cooler temperatures Thursday,
temperatures will warm into the weekend.  The cold front will bring
another slightly cooler day Sunday before temperatures warm once
again.  Overall, temperatures will be right around to a few degrees
above normal with highs generally in the 80s and lows in the upper
50s to lower 60s.

Precipitation...The only shot of rain in the long term forecast is
showers and possibly thunderstorms with the cold front Friday or
Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Wednesday/...

Today...Moderate confidence. A mix of IFR and MVFR conditions in
low clouds this morning will probably improve to mainly VFR by
afternoon. Bulk of scattered showers should also come to an end by
mid to late morning. Otherwise, mainly VFR conditions expected the
rest of the day.

Tonight...Moderate confidence.  Conditions lower to MVFR-IFR
thresholds as boundary layer cools with an abundance of low level
moisture.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms also expected with
main risk between 01z and 09z.

Wednesday...Moderate to high confidence.  MVFR-IFR conditions should
improve to mainly VFR by afternoon as low clouds/fog patches
dissipate.  Low risk for a few strong thunderstorms Wed afternoon,
mainly Eastern MA/RI.

KBOS TAF...Moderate to high confidence in TAF.

KBDL TAF...Moderate confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Wednesday Night through Saturday/...

Wednesday night and Thursday...High confidence.  Mainly VFR
conditions. Any lingering MVFR conditions Wednesday night will
improve quickly to VFR.  Light and variable winds.

Friday and Saturday...Moderate confidence.  Mainly VFR conditions
and dry weather. Scattered showers and thunderstorms may result in
brief periods of MVFR conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Wednesday/...High confidence.

Winds and seas will generally remain below small craft advisory
thresholds through Wednesday afternoon. South to southwest wind
gusts of 20 knots are expected at times with 2 to 4 foot seas across
the open waters.  Main concern is for areas of fog tonight into Wed
am across the southern waters.  May also see a few thunderstorms
with brief heavy rain overnight.

Outlook /Wednesday Night through Saturday/...

High confidence.  Mainly quiet boating weather expected.  Winds and
seas remain below SCA criteria throughout the period. However, they
will increase as a cold front approaches and then crosses over the
coastal waters sometime late Friday to Saturday. This will result in
showers and thunderstorms, which will reduce visibilities at
times.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Frank/RLG
NEAR TERM...Belk/Frank/RLG
SHORT TERM...Frank
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...Frank/RLG
MARINE...Frank/RLG




000
FXUS61 KOKX 281152
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
752 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front over western Pennsylvania this morning will move
slowly east today passing across the area on Wednesday. Weak
high pressure returns for Thursday through Friday. Another cold
front then approaches and passes through late Friday night into
Saturday. High pressure builds in behind the front Sunday and
Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Dissipating band of showers across far eastern LI will work east
through mid morning. For the rest of the morning, there will be a
low chance of showers until airmass destabilizes enough to
warrant the mention of thunderstorms this afternoon. However, did
keep LI and CT showers through the day based on marine air keeping
the region stable. In fact, any strong convection across the
interior is not likely until late this afternoon. There is
definitely a good deal of uncertainty as to whether this activity
will be able to reach the coast late today into this evening.

Otherwise, low stratus and patchy fog, locally dense will prevail
until around 15z.

A short wave trough will be moving SE toward the area along with
its` surface cold front reflection. With abundant low level
moisture in place and the cold front serving as the trigger, SCT
TSTMS are forecast to develop ahead of the cold front and move
toward the Lower Hudson Valley and Northern NJ aft 18z. The degree
of surface based instability is uncertain based on clouds
dissipating upstream.

In any case, there is a Slight Risk or severe TSTMs mainly for
Orange County and a Marginal Risk further east across NYC and SW
CT...mainly aft 20z with damaging winds being the primary threat.
Based on high sfc dew points and precipitable water contents, can
not rule out isolated flash flooding of low lying and poor
drainage areas.

An Outlook was issued for these potential hazards and impacts.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
The short wave trough is forecast to gradually move east with the
trough axis nearly overhead by 6 pm Wednesday.

Any potential severe TSTMs Tuesday evening should end by midnight
with showers ending by 10z Wednesday.

SCT instability TSTMs are possible aft 16z Wednesday with the
approach of the short wave trough axis.

Temperatures are forecast near normal through the period.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As has been the case for the last several weeks, still no hot
weather on tap for the region with minor fluctuations around the
mean. The mean upper trough will continue to reside across eastern
Canada, the Great Lakes, and Northeast, while an amplified upper
ridge over the western U.S. gradually flattens into early next
week. At the same time, an upper low near Hudson Bay translates
east.

At the surface, weak high pressure over the Midwest builds into the
area Thursday and then offshore Thursday night ahead of an
approaching cold front and pre-frontal trough. The latter of which
is associated with the upper low/trough working across eastern
Canada. There is a chance of showers and thunderstorms Friday into
Friday night with the best chance being across the interior where
the greatest instability will exist. Deep-layer shear increases with
the approaching upper trough. Dry air could be a limiting factor for
any organization. Cold front works east of the area Saturday morning
with high pressure to follow through early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A cold front approaches later today and passes through the region
late tonight through Wednesday morning.

S/SE winds 5-10 KT will increase to 10-15 KT later today.

MVFR/IFR conditions in fog/stratus. An area of showers west of KNYC
will pass through sometime from 14Z-18Z. Will TEMPO showers for
KEWR/KTEB from 12Z-14Z. Showers possible for KLGA/KJFK from 13-15Z,
but will leave out of TAF for now.

Cold front approaches late in the day. SHRA/TSRA will develop north
and west of KNYC terminals and track east. Will carry TEMPO groups
for KNYC and interior terminals for TSRA. For eastern terminals,
will carry TEMPO groups for SHRA. Rain/stratus/fog moves into the
terminals after 03Z with IFR conditions.

Cold front passes through around daybreak Wednesday. Rain tapers
off. Conditions will improve through Wednesday morning.

...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http://www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: Low confidence in the forecast. AMDs expected
throughout the day for changes in flight categories.

KLGA TAF Comments: Low confidence in the forecast. AMDs expected
throughout the day for changes in flight categories.

KEWR TAF Comments: Low confidence in the forecast. AMDs expected
throughout the day for changes in flight categories.

The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is YELLOW...which implies
slant range visibility 4-6SM outside of cloud.

KTEB TAF Comments: Low confidence in the forecast. AMDs expected
throughout the day for changes in flight categories.

KHPN TAF Comments: Low confidence in the forecast. IFR conditions
likely through most of the day.

KISP TAF Comments: Low confidence in the forecast. AMDs expected
throughout the day for changes in flight categories.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.Wednesday morning...MVFR and IFR/lower (coastal terminals)
conditions possible via morning fog/low clouds and rain.

.Wednesday afternoon through Friday morning...VFR.

.Friday night...MVFR or IFR conditions possible in showers/tstms.

.Saturday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas are forecast to generally remain below Small Craft
Advisory/SCA levels of 25 kt and 5 feet across the Atlantic Ocean
coastal waters through the period.

This Morning...Vsby of 1 to 3 nm possible in patchy fog with
scattered showers.

Late Afternoon through Tonight...Scattered TSTMs are possible with
the approach of a cold front along with Vsby of 1 to 3 NM in
patchy fog.

Cold frontal passages with wind shifts are forecast late
Wednesday and Friday night.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
This Morning: Up to 1/2-inch rainfall is possible across Long
Island and Southern CT.

This Afternoon through Tonight: 1/4 to 3/4-inches possible with
isolated higher amounts in heavier showers and SCT TSTMS. Can not
rule out isolated flash flooding of low lying poor drainage areas.

Friday Afternoon and Evening: Scattered showers and thunderstorms
may produce localized heavy rainfall, mainly north and west of
NYC.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GC/DW
NEAR TERM...GC/DW
SHORT TERM...GC
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...GC/DW
HYDROLOGY...GC/DW




000
FXUS61 KOKX 281152
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
752 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front over western Pennsylvania this morning will move
slowly east today passing across the area on Wednesday. Weak
high pressure returns for Thursday through Friday. Another cold
front then approaches and passes through late Friday night into
Saturday. High pressure builds in behind the front Sunday and
Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Dissipating band of showers across far eastern LI will work east
through mid morning. For the rest of the morning, there will be a
low chance of showers until airmass destabilizes enough to
warrant the mention of thunderstorms this afternoon. However, did
keep LI and CT showers through the day based on marine air keeping
the region stable. In fact, any strong convection across the
interior is not likely until late this afternoon. There is
definitely a good deal of uncertainty as to whether this activity
will be able to reach the coast late today into this evening.

Otherwise, low stratus and patchy fog, locally dense will prevail
until around 15z.

A short wave trough will be moving SE toward the area along with
its` surface cold front reflection. With abundant low level
moisture in place and the cold front serving as the trigger, SCT
TSTMS are forecast to develop ahead of the cold front and move
toward the Lower Hudson Valley and Northern NJ aft 18z. The degree
of surface based instability is uncertain based on clouds
dissipating upstream.

In any case, there is a Slight Risk or severe TSTMs mainly for
Orange County and a Marginal Risk further east across NYC and SW
CT...mainly aft 20z with damaging winds being the primary threat.
Based on high sfc dew points and precipitable water contents, can
not rule out isolated flash flooding of low lying and poor
drainage areas.

An Outlook was issued for these potential hazards and impacts.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
The short wave trough is forecast to gradually move east with the
trough axis nearly overhead by 6 pm Wednesday.

Any potential severe TSTMs Tuesday evening should end by midnight
with showers ending by 10z Wednesday.

SCT instability TSTMs are possible aft 16z Wednesday with the
approach of the short wave trough axis.

Temperatures are forecast near normal through the period.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As has been the case for the last several weeks, still no hot
weather on tap for the region with minor fluctuations around the
mean. The mean upper trough will continue to reside across eastern
Canada, the Great Lakes, and Northeast, while an amplified upper
ridge over the western U.S. gradually flattens into early next
week. At the same time, an upper low near Hudson Bay translates
east.

At the surface, weak high pressure over the Midwest builds into the
area Thursday and then offshore Thursday night ahead of an
approaching cold front and pre-frontal trough. The latter of which
is associated with the upper low/trough working across eastern
Canada. There is a chance of showers and thunderstorms Friday into
Friday night with the best chance being across the interior where
the greatest instability will exist. Deep-layer shear increases with
the approaching upper trough. Dry air could be a limiting factor for
any organization. Cold front works east of the area Saturday morning
with high pressure to follow through early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A cold front approaches later today and passes through the region
late tonight through Wednesday morning.

S/SE winds 5-10 KT will increase to 10-15 KT later today.

MVFR/IFR conditions in fog/stratus. An area of showers west of KNYC
will pass through sometime from 14Z-18Z. Will TEMPO showers for
KEWR/KTEB from 12Z-14Z. Showers possible for KLGA/KJFK from 13-15Z,
but will leave out of TAF for now.

Cold front approaches late in the day. SHRA/TSRA will develop north
and west of KNYC terminals and track east. Will carry TEMPO groups
for KNYC and interior terminals for TSRA. For eastern terminals,
will carry TEMPO groups for SHRA. Rain/stratus/fog moves into the
terminals after 03Z with IFR conditions.

Cold front passes through around daybreak Wednesday. Rain tapers
off. Conditions will improve through Wednesday morning.

...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http://www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: Low confidence in the forecast. AMDs expected
throughout the day for changes in flight categories.

KLGA TAF Comments: Low confidence in the forecast. AMDs expected
throughout the day for changes in flight categories.

KEWR TAF Comments: Low confidence in the forecast. AMDs expected
throughout the day for changes in flight categories.

The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is YELLOW...which implies
slant range visibility 4-6SM outside of cloud.

KTEB TAF Comments: Low confidence in the forecast. AMDs expected
throughout the day for changes in flight categories.

KHPN TAF Comments: Low confidence in the forecast. IFR conditions
likely through most of the day.

KISP TAF Comments: Low confidence in the forecast. AMDs expected
throughout the day for changes in flight categories.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.Wednesday morning...MVFR and IFR/lower (coastal terminals)
conditions possible via morning fog/low clouds and rain.

.Wednesday afternoon through Friday morning...VFR.

.Friday night...MVFR or IFR conditions possible in showers/tstms.

.Saturday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas are forecast to generally remain below Small Craft
Advisory/SCA levels of 25 kt and 5 feet across the Atlantic Ocean
coastal waters through the period.

This Morning...Vsby of 1 to 3 nm possible in patchy fog with
scattered showers.

Late Afternoon through Tonight...Scattered TSTMs are possible with
the approach of a cold front along with Vsby of 1 to 3 NM in
patchy fog.

Cold frontal passages with wind shifts are forecast late
Wednesday and Friday night.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
This Morning: Up to 1/2-inch rainfall is possible across Long
Island and Southern CT.

This Afternoon through Tonight: 1/4 to 3/4-inches possible with
isolated higher amounts in heavier showers and SCT TSTMS. Can not
rule out isolated flash flooding of low lying poor drainage areas.

Friday Afternoon and Evening: Scattered showers and thunderstorms
may produce localized heavy rainfall, mainly north and west of
NYC.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GC/DW
NEAR TERM...GC/DW
SHORT TERM...GC
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...GC/DW
HYDROLOGY...GC/DW




000
FXUS61 KBOX 281113
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
713 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving cold front will bring scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms into Wednesday, with the bulk of the activity
occurring tonight. This front will push offshore Wednesday night.
High pressure then brings dry seasonable weather for Thursday.
Another cold front may bring more showers and thunderstorms Friday
or Saturday. Dry weather returns for the remainder of the holiday
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
7 AM Update...A few scattered showers remain across eastern
Massachusetts and Rhode Island this morning. These should move
offshore and/or dissipate in by mid-morning. This hit and miss
activity was the result of a shortwave and a burst of some
marginal elevated instability. Made some minor adjustments to the
PoPs for the latest trends. Otherwise, the forecast is on track.

While warm advection will continue to result in the risk for a
few spot showers, dry weather will dominate the rest of today with
bulk of forcing/instability well to our northwest ahead of a cold
front. Deep low level moisture will also result in considerable
cloudiness at times, but still expect peeks of sunshine especially
across southeast New England.

High temps will mainly be in the upper 70s to lower 80s, but a few
locales may reach into the middle 80s.  It will also feel somewhat
humid outside with dewpoints well into the 60s, something we have
not seen much of so far this month.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
***Scattered showers/thunderstorms with brief localized heavy
rainfall possible between 9 pm tonight and 5 am Wednesday morning
but severe weather threat is rather low***

Tonight...

Showers and thunderstorms will be on going across Eastern NY early
this evening.  This activity will attempt to work into western
MA/Northern CT by mid to late evening, but should weaken with
diminishing instability/poor mid level lapse rates.  Still may see
some thunder and brief locally heavy rainfall in these locations.
Greater threat for scattered showers/thunderstorms with brief
locally heavy rainfall may set up across Eastern MA/Eastern CT and
RI near or after midnight. This on the nose of a 30 to 40 knot
southerly low level jet, MUcapes between 200 and 500 J/kg, and PWATS
between 1.5 and 2 inches. Guidance not completely sold on where and
if this sets up, but given the above parameters certainly a
possibility.  Severe weather threat looks rather low given limited
instability/timing. Bulk of the activity should be offshore near
daybreak.  Low temps will mainly be in the 60s and may see some
patchy fog develop.

Wednesday...

The actual surface cold front will sweep across the region on
Wednesday.  While the vast majority of the day will be dry, there is
a low risk for a few strong thunderstorms developing Wed afternoon
ahead of the front.  Whether or not this activity develops hinges on
if enough mid level moisture remains. While this is uncertain, the
highest risk is across Eastern MA/RI where moisture will be a bit
deeper.

We should see 1000+ j/kg of Cape develop across Eastern New England
ahead of the front along with 0 to 6 km shear values of 30 to 40
knots.  Colder air moving in aloft will result in somewhat steeper
mid level lapse rates, but nothing too extreme.

The above parameters are supportive for the possibility of a few
strong thunderstorms Wed afternoon.  However, mid levels of the
atmosphere will be drying out and may limit or prevent convection.
So in a nutshell, there is a low risk for a few strong thunderstorms
Wednesday afternoon with an isolated strong wind/hail threat if dry
mid level air can be overcome. Highest risk across Eastern MA/RI
between noon and 6 pm.

High temps should generally reach into the lower to middle 80s away
from the immediate coast.  Still somewhat humid with dewpoints in
the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Highlights...

* High pressure brings dry weather Thursday
* A cold front brings showers and thunderstorms Friday/Saturday
* High pressure brings dry weather for the remainder of the holiday
  weekend

Overview...Relatively quiet pattern continues with broad upper level
ridge over the western U.S. and broad upper troughing over the
eastern U.S.  The ridging pushes into the center of the country by
early next week.  Models are in good agreement on the synoptic
pattern and will use a blend of available guidance for this
forecast. A cold front will move offshore Wednesday night bringing
in slightly cooler but quiet weather for Thursday.  Another cold
front will move through southern New England Friday or Saturday
(ECMWF is a bit faster than the GFS), bringing showers and
potentially thunderstorms to the area.  High pressure builds into
New England from the Great Lakes for the remainder of the holiday
weekend.

Temperatures...After slightly cooler temperatures Thursday,
temperatures will warm into the weekend.  The cold front will bring
another slightly cooler day Sunday before temperatures warm once
again.  Overall, temperatures will be right around to a few degrees
above normal with highs generally in the 80s and lows in the upper
50s to lower 60s.

Precipitation...The only shot of rain in the long term forecast is
showers and possibly thunderstorms with the cold front Friday or
Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Wednesday/...

Today...Moderate confidence. A mix of IFR and MVFR conditions in
low clouds this morning will probably improve to mainly VFR by
afternoon. Bulk of scattered showers should also come to an end by
mid to late morning. Otherwise, mainly VFR conditions expected the
rest of the day.

Tonight...Moderate confidence.  Conditions lower to MVFR-IFR
thresholds as boundary layer cools with an abundance of low level
moisture.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms also expected with
main risk between 01z and 09z.

Wednesday...Moderate to high confidence.  MVFR-IFR conditions should
improve to mainly VFR by afternoon as low clouds/fog patches
dissipate.  Low risk for a few strong thunderstorms Wed afternoon,
mainly Eastern MA/RI.

KBOS TAF...Moderate to high confidence in TAF.

KBDL TAF...Moderate confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Wednesday Night through Saturday/...

Wednesday night and Thursday...High confidence.  Mainly VFR
conditions. Any lingering MVFR conditions Wednesday night will
improve quickly to VFR.  Light and variable winds.

Friday and Saturday...Moderate confidence.  Mainly VFR conditions
and dry weather. Scattered showers and thunderstorms may result in
brief periods of MVFR conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Wednesday/...High confidence.

Winds and seas will generally remain below small craft advisory
thresholds through Wednesday afternoon. South to southwest wind
gusts of 20 knots are expected at times with 2 to 4 foot seas across
the open waters.  Main concern is for areas of fog tonight into Wed
am across the southern waters.  May also see a few thunderstorms
with brief heavy rain overnight.

Outlook /Wednesday Night through Saturday/...

High confidence.  Mainly quiet boating weather expected.  Winds and
seas remain below SCA criteria throughout the period. However, they
will increase as a cold front approaches and then crosses over the
coastal waters sometime late Friday to Saturday. This will result in
showers and thunderstorms, which will reduce visibilities at
times.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Frank/RLG
NEAR TERM...Frank/RLG
SHORT TERM...Frank
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...Frank/RLG
MARINE...Frank/RLG




000
FXUS61 KALY 281047
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
647 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will slowly move across our region this afternoon
and tonight, resulting in widespread showers and thunderstorms.
Some storms may be severe with damaging winds and heavy rainfall.
A disturbance will move through on Wednesday with a few more
showers and thunderstorms. High pressure will then build into the
region Wednesday night into Thursday, bringing dry weather.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 611 AM EDT...Severe thunderstorms possible across much of
the region this afternoon into this evening...

A moist and increasingly unstable air mass will be in place
today. Already early this morning temperatures are quite mild in
the 60s, with dewpoints also in the 60s making it humid. Lots of
low stratus clouds around, but most of the area will see breaks
of sunshine by late morning into early afternoon, which will allow
for moderate instability to develop. The only area where the
stratus clouds and more stable conditions could hold on longer is
across eastern Dutchess, southern Berkshire, and Litchfield
counties where there is a Marginal Risk of severe storms, compared
to the greater Slight Risk farther west across the rest of the
area.

Large-scale ascent will result from low level convergence along a
slow moving cold front that will track eastward across the region
this afternoon and evening, combined with cyclonic vorticity
advection ahead of an upper level trough pushing eastward through
the eastern Great Lakes. This pattern will result in widespread
development of showers and storms, with hi-res models indicating
convective initiation across the western Adirondacks and Mohawk
Valley by early this afternoon. Storms will intensify and move
eastward into the Catskills and Hudson valley by mid to late
afternoon.

Thunderstorms could become severe with damaging wind the primary
threat. SBCAPE values around 1000-1500 J/Kg will provide enough
buoyancy to maintain persistent multicells given increasing deep
layer shear of 30-40 kt. Mitigating factor to large hail will be
relatively weak mid level lapse rates around 6 deg/km and `thin`
CAPE profile aloft. However, forecast sounding profiles also
showing potential for heavy rainfall within storms, which could
result in isolated flash flooding. See hydro section for details.

Showers and storms will move into western New England during the
evening, and should tend to weaken but still may produce gusty
winds and downpours.

High temps expected to reach the upper 70s to lower 80s in most
locations, but will drop into the 60s during any persistent
showers or storms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The cold front will continue to move eastward across the Hudson
valley eastward into western New England this evening and
overnight. Will continue to mention likely showers and
thunderstorms for these areas, gradually tapering off from west to
east. The cold front should clear eastern portions of the area by
sunrise Wednesday.

There will still be a threat of isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms on Wednesday, as the upper level trough axis is
forecast to be positioned just to our west. Some of the storms
could be strong during the afternoon mainly for areas north and
east of the Hudson Valley depending on how much instability
develops ahead of the trough. The highest dewpoints will likely be
displaced to our east across central/eastern New England, but
lapse rates will be steepening due to the trough moving through.

Chances for leftover showers/storms should end Wednesday evening
as the trough shifts eastward into eastern New England. High
pressure will then build eastward from the Midwest and Great
Lakes, providing dry conditions and comfortably low humidity
levels with seasonable temperatures Wednesday night into Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Chances for convection as we head into the long holiday weekend
then fair weather is expected.

A vigorous short-wave is expected to be rotating about the base
of an upper level low near southern Hudson Bay Canada Thursday
night through Friday night. This feature will be accompanied by a
cold front at the surface. Showers and thunderstorms are expected
to develop and move across the region in response. Have limited
pops to chance for Friday and Friday night at this time due to
timing concerns.

The upper low is modeled to move slowly eastward across eastern
Canada over the holiday weekend eventually filling in and opening
up. Our region will remain on the southern periphery of the low
through Sunday with heights rising Sunday night and Monday as
ridging builds in.

Temperatures are expected to be seasonably warm Friday with cooler
readings by 5 to 10 degrees in the wake of the cold front for Saturday
and Sunday. Temperatures are anticipated to moderate back to normal
levels for Monday Independence Day.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR-IFR conditions are expected to improve to VFR this morning.
Convection will develop across the area impacting the TAFs sites
this afternoon and evening as cold front approaches and gradually
crosses the area.

Guidance indicates convection will initiate by afternoon across
the western Adirondacks and western Mohawk Valley with the storms
moving eastward across the area through the afternoon hours and the
evening hours. Have included a TEMPO group for thunderstorms with
MVFR conditions in each TAF. Brief IFR conditions can be expected
with the some storms but don`t have the confidence for timing to
include in TAFs. Some of the thunderstorms may become strong to
severe. Aloft an approaching short-wave will be rotating through
the base of the upper trough as the cold front approaches and this
will occur during the peak heating of the day. With dew points in
the 60s the airmass will become quite unstable. The primary threat
will be strong to damaging winds gusts along with locally heavy
rainfall.

Widespread MVFR conditions are expected to develop for the overnight
in the wake of the convection with IFR conditions expected at
KPOU and KPSF.

Southerly winds today with gusts into the teens at KALB during
the afternoon. Winds will become light tonight.

Outlook...

Wed Night-Thu Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Fri-Fri Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sat: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A cold front will slowly move across our region this afternoon
and tonight, resulting in widespread showers and thunderstorms.
Some storms may be severe with damaging winds and heavy rainfall.
A disturbance will move through on Wednesday with a few more
showers and thunderstorms. High pressure will then build into the
region Wednesday night into Thursday, bringing dry weather.

Minimum relative humidity values this afternoon are expected to
be around 55 to 65 percent. RH values will then increase to
between 85 and 100 percent tonight. Minimum RH values on Wednesday
will be around 40 to 55 percent.

Winds today will be southerly around 5 to 10 mph, becoming
westerly tonight around 5 mph. Winds on Wednesday will be
northwest at 5 to 10 mph.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydro problems are expected over the next 5 days.
Showers and thunderstorms are likely across the region this
afternoon and tonight, ahead of and along a slow moving cold
front. Basin average rainfall will be around a half inch to an
inch, however locally heavy rainfall could result in isolated
amounts near or exceeding two inches. Ponding of water will occur
within thunderstorms, and even isolated flash flooding is possible
within persistent slow moving downpours. Antecedent conditions are
very dry though, so widespread hydro issues are not expected.

A few lingering showers and thunderstorms are possible Wednesday
with light qpf amounts.

Dry weather will return by Thursday, with high pressure moving
back in across the region.

The latest drought monitor now has most of our region labeled
`Abnormally Dry` (D0). In fact, over the past 30 days, most of our
region is approximately 1-3 inches below normal in terms of
rainfall.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...NAS/JPV




000
FXUS61 KALY 281047
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
647 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will slowly move across our region this afternoon
and tonight, resulting in widespread showers and thunderstorms.
Some storms may be severe with damaging winds and heavy rainfall.
A disturbance will move through on Wednesday with a few more
showers and thunderstorms. High pressure will then build into the
region Wednesday night into Thursday, bringing dry weather.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 611 AM EDT...Severe thunderstorms possible across much of
the region this afternoon into this evening...

A moist and increasingly unstable air mass will be in place
today. Already early this morning temperatures are quite mild in
the 60s, with dewpoints also in the 60s making it humid. Lots of
low stratus clouds around, but most of the area will see breaks
of sunshine by late morning into early afternoon, which will allow
for moderate instability to develop. The only area where the
stratus clouds and more stable conditions could hold on longer is
across eastern Dutchess, southern Berkshire, and Litchfield
counties where there is a Marginal Risk of severe storms, compared
to the greater Slight Risk farther west across the rest of the
area.

Large-scale ascent will result from low level convergence along a
slow moving cold front that will track eastward across the region
this afternoon and evening, combined with cyclonic vorticity
advection ahead of an upper level trough pushing eastward through
the eastern Great Lakes. This pattern will result in widespread
development of showers and storms, with hi-res models indicating
convective initiation across the western Adirondacks and Mohawk
Valley by early this afternoon. Storms will intensify and move
eastward into the Catskills and Hudson valley by mid to late
afternoon.

Thunderstorms could become severe with damaging wind the primary
threat. SBCAPE values around 1000-1500 J/Kg will provide enough
buoyancy to maintain persistent multicells given increasing deep
layer shear of 30-40 kt. Mitigating factor to large hail will be
relatively weak mid level lapse rates around 6 deg/km and `thin`
CAPE profile aloft. However, forecast sounding profiles also
showing potential for heavy rainfall within storms, which could
result in isolated flash flooding. See hydro section for details.

Showers and storms will move into western New England during the
evening, and should tend to weaken but still may produce gusty
winds and downpours.

High temps expected to reach the upper 70s to lower 80s in most
locations, but will drop into the 60s during any persistent
showers or storms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The cold front will continue to move eastward across the Hudson
valley eastward into western New England this evening and
overnight. Will continue to mention likely showers and
thunderstorms for these areas, gradually tapering off from west to
east. The cold front should clear eastern portions of the area by
sunrise Wednesday.

There will still be a threat of isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms on Wednesday, as the upper level trough axis is
forecast to be positioned just to our west. Some of the storms
could be strong during the afternoon mainly for areas north and
east of the Hudson Valley depending on how much instability
develops ahead of the trough. The highest dewpoints will likely be
displaced to our east across central/eastern New England, but
lapse rates will be steepening due to the trough moving through.

Chances for leftover showers/storms should end Wednesday evening
as the trough shifts eastward into eastern New England. High
pressure will then build eastward from the Midwest and Great
Lakes, providing dry conditions and comfortably low humidity
levels with seasonable temperatures Wednesday night into Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Chances for convection as we head into the long holiday weekend
then fair weather is expected.

A vigorous short-wave is expected to be rotating about the base
of an upper level low near southern Hudson Bay Canada Thursday
night through Friday night. This feature will be accompanied by a
cold front at the surface. Showers and thunderstorms are expected
to develop and move across the region in response. Have limited
pops to chance for Friday and Friday night at this time due to
timing concerns.

The upper low is modeled to move slowly eastward across eastern
Canada over the holiday weekend eventually filling in and opening
up. Our region will remain on the southern periphery of the low
through Sunday with heights rising Sunday night and Monday as
ridging builds in.

Temperatures are expected to be seasonably warm Friday with cooler
readings by 5 to 10 degrees in the wake of the cold front for Saturday
and Sunday. Temperatures are anticipated to moderate back to normal
levels for Monday Independence Day.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR-IFR conditions are expected to improve to VFR this morning.
Convection will develop across the area impacting the TAFs sites
this afternoon and evening as cold front approaches and gradually
crosses the area.

Guidance indicates convection will initiate by afternoon across
the western Adirondacks and western Mohawk Valley with the storms
moving eastward across the area through the afternoon hours and the
evening hours. Have included a TEMPO group for thunderstorms with
MVFR conditions in each TAF. Brief IFR conditions can be expected
with the some storms but don`t have the confidence for timing to
include in TAFs. Some of the thunderstorms may become strong to
severe. Aloft an approaching short-wave will be rotating through
the base of the upper trough as the cold front approaches and this
will occur during the peak heating of the day. With dew points in
the 60s the airmass will become quite unstable. The primary threat
will be strong to damaging winds gusts along with locally heavy
rainfall.

Widespread MVFR conditions are expected to develop for the overnight
in the wake of the convection with IFR conditions expected at
KPOU and KPSF.

Southerly winds today with gusts into the teens at KALB during
the afternoon. Winds will become light tonight.

Outlook...

Wed Night-Thu Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Fri-Fri Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sat: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A cold front will slowly move across our region this afternoon
and tonight, resulting in widespread showers and thunderstorms.
Some storms may be severe with damaging winds and heavy rainfall.
A disturbance will move through on Wednesday with a few more
showers and thunderstorms. High pressure will then build into the
region Wednesday night into Thursday, bringing dry weather.

Minimum relative humidity values this afternoon are expected to
be around 55 to 65 percent. RH values will then increase to
between 85 and 100 percent tonight. Minimum RH values on Wednesday
will be around 40 to 55 percent.

Winds today will be southerly around 5 to 10 mph, becoming
westerly tonight around 5 mph. Winds on Wednesday will be
northwest at 5 to 10 mph.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydro problems are expected over the next 5 days.
Showers and thunderstorms are likely across the region this
afternoon and tonight, ahead of and along a slow moving cold
front. Basin average rainfall will be around a half inch to an
inch, however locally heavy rainfall could result in isolated
amounts near or exceeding two inches. Ponding of water will occur
within thunderstorms, and even isolated flash flooding is possible
within persistent slow moving downpours. Antecedent conditions are
very dry though, so widespread hydro issues are not expected.

A few lingering showers and thunderstorms are possible Wednesday
with light qpf amounts.

Dry weather will return by Thursday, with high pressure moving
back in across the region.

The latest drought monitor now has most of our region labeled
`Abnormally Dry` (D0). In fact, over the past 30 days, most of our
region is approximately 1-3 inches below normal in terms of
rainfall.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...NAS/JPV




000
FXUS61 KALY 281011
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
611 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will slowly move across our region this afternoon
and tonight, resulting in widespread showers and thunderstorms.
Some storms may be severe with damaging winds and heavy rainfall.
A disturbance will move through on Wednesday with a few more
showers and thunderstorms. High pressure will then build into the
region Wednesday night into Thursday, bringing dry weather.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 611 AM EDT...Severe thunderstorms possible across much of
the region this afternoon into this evening...

A moist and increasingly unstable air mass will be in place
today. Already early this morning temperatures are quite mild in
the 60s, with dewpoints also in the 60s making it humid. Lots of
low stratus clouds around, but most of the area will see breaks
of sunshine by late morning into early afternoon, which will allow
for moderate instability to develop. The only area where the
stratus clouds and more stable conditions could hold on longer is
across eastern Dutchess, southern Berkshire, and Litchfield
counties where there is a Marginal Risk of severe storms, compared
to the greater Slight Risk farther west across the rest of the
area.

Large-scale ascent will result from low level convergence along a
slow moving cold front that will track eastward across the region
this afternoon and evening, combined with cyclonic vorticity
advection ahead of an upper level trough pushing eastward through
the eastern Great Lakes. This pattern will result in widespread
development of showers and storms, with hi-res models indicating
convective initiation across the western Adirondacks and Mohawk
Valley by early this afternoon. Storms will intensify and move
eastward into the Catskills and Hudson valley by mid to late
afternoon.

Thunderstorms could become severe with damaging wind the primary
threat. SBCAPE values around 1000-1500 J/Kg will provide enough
buoyancy to maintain persistent multicells given increasing deep
layer shear of 30-40 kt. Mitigating factor to large hail will be
relatively weak mid level lapse rates around 6 deg/km and `thin`
CAPE profile aloft. However, forecast sounding profiles also
showing potential for heavy rainfall within storms, which could
result in isolated flash flooding. See hydro section for details.

Showers and storms will move into western New England during the
evening, and should tend to weaken but still may produce gusty
winds and downpours.

High temps expected to reach the upper 70s to lower 80s in most
locations, but will drop into the 60s during any persistent
showers or storms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The cold front will continue to move eastward across the Hudson
valley eastward into western New England this evening and
overnight. Will continue to mention likely showers and
thunderstorms for these areas, gradually tapering off from west to
east. The cold front should clear eastern portions of the area by
sunrise Wednesday.

There will still be a threat of isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms on Wednesday, as the upper level trough axis is
forecast to be positioned just to our west. Some of the storms
could be strong during the afternoon mainly for areas north and
east of the Hudson Valley depending on how much instability
develops ahead of the trough. The highest dewpoints will likely be
displaced to our east across central/eastern New England, but
lapse rates will be steepening due to the trough moving through.

Chances for leftover showers/storms should end Wednesday evening
as the trough shifts eastward into eastern New England. High
pressure will then build eastward from the Midwest and Great
Lakes, providing dry conditions and comfortably low humidity
levels with seasonable temperatures Wednesday night into Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Chances for convection as we head into the long holiday weekend
then fair weather is expected.

A vigorous short-wave is expected to be rotating about the base
of an upper level low near southern Hudson Bay Canada Thursday
night through Friday night. This feature will be accompanied by a
cold front at the surface. Showers and thunderstorms are expected
to develop and move across the region in response. Have limited
pops to chance for Friday and Friday night at this time due to
timing concerns.

The upper low is modeled to move slowly eastward across eastern
Canada over the holiday weekend eventually filling in and opening
up. Our region will remain on the southern periphery of the low
through Sunday with heights rising Sunday night and Monday as
ridging builds in.

Temperatures are expected to be seasonably warm Friday with cooler
readings by 5 to 10 degrees in the wake of the cold front for Saturday
and Sunday. Temperatures are anticipated to moderate back to normal
levels for Monday Independence Day.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR-IFR conditions are expected through the early morning mainly
due to ceilings. These conditions are expected to improve to VFR
after sunrise as the atmosphere mixes. Convection will develop
across the area impacting the TAFs sites this afternoon into the
evening as cold front approaches and gradually crosses the area.

Guidance indicates convection should initiated by afternoon across
the western Adirondacks and western Mohawk Valley with the storms
moving eastward across the area through the afternoon hours into
the evening. Have included a TEMPO group for thunderstorms with
MVFR conditions in each TAF. Brief IFR conditions can be expected
with the some storms but don`t have the confidence for timing to
include in TAFs. Some of the thunderstorms may become strong to
severe. Aloft an approaching short-wave will be rotating through
the base of the upper trough as the cold front approaches and
this will occur during the peak heating of the day. With dew
points in the 60s the airmass will become quite unstable. The
primary threat will be strong to damaging winds gusts.

Widespread MVFR condition are expected to develop for the overnight
in the wake of the convection.

Overall winds will be southerly through the TAF period; 06Z/Wednesday.
At KALB, gusts into the teens are expected during the afternoon.


Outlook...

Wed Night-Thu Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Fri-Fri Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sat: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A cold front will slowly move across our region this afternoon
and tonight, resulting in widespread showers and thunderstorms.
Some storms may be severe with damaging winds and heavy rainfall.
A disturbance will move through on Wednesday with a few more
showers and thunderstorms. High pressure will then build into the
region Wednesday night into Thursday, bringing dry weather.

Minimum relative humidity values this afternoon are expected to
be around 55 to 65 percent. RH values will then increase to
between 85 and 100 percent tonight. Minimum RH values on Wednesday
will be around 40 to 55 percent.

Winds today will be southerly around 5 to 10 mph, becoming
westerly tonight around 5 mph. Winds on Wednesday will be
northwest at 5 to 10 mph.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydro problems are expected over the next 5 days.
Showers and thunderstorms are likely across the region this
afternoon and tonight, ahead of and along a slow moving cold
front. Basin average rainfall will be around a half inch to an
inch, however locally heavy rainfall could result in isolated
amounts near or exceeding two inches. Ponding of water will occur
within thunderstorms, and even isolated flash flooding is possible
within persistent slow moving downpours. Antecedent conditions are
very dry though, so widespread hydro issues are not expected.

A few lingering showers and thunderstorms are possible Wednesday
with light qpf amounts.

Dry weather will return by Thursday, with high pressure moving
back in across the region.

The latest drought monitor now has most of our region labeled
`Abnormally Dry` (D0). In fact, over the past 30 days, most of our
region is approximately 1-3 inches below normal in terms of
rainfall.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...NAS/JPV




000
FXUS61 KALY 281011
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
611 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will slowly move across our region this afternoon
and tonight, resulting in widespread showers and thunderstorms.
Some storms may be severe with damaging winds and heavy rainfall.
A disturbance will move through on Wednesday with a few more
showers and thunderstorms. High pressure will then build into the
region Wednesday night into Thursday, bringing dry weather.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 611 AM EDT...Severe thunderstorms possible across much of
the region this afternoon into this evening...

A moist and increasingly unstable air mass will be in place
today. Already early this morning temperatures are quite mild in
the 60s, with dewpoints also in the 60s making it humid. Lots of
low stratus clouds around, but most of the area will see breaks
of sunshine by late morning into early afternoon, which will allow
for moderate instability to develop. The only area where the
stratus clouds and more stable conditions could hold on longer is
across eastern Dutchess, southern Berkshire, and Litchfield
counties where there is a Marginal Risk of severe storms, compared
to the greater Slight Risk farther west across the rest of the
area.

Large-scale ascent will result from low level convergence along a
slow moving cold front that will track eastward across the region
this afternoon and evening, combined with cyclonic vorticity
advection ahead of an upper level trough pushing eastward through
the eastern Great Lakes. This pattern will result in widespread
development of showers and storms, with hi-res models indicating
convective initiation across the western Adirondacks and Mohawk
Valley by early this afternoon. Storms will intensify and move
eastward into the Catskills and Hudson valley by mid to late
afternoon.

Thunderstorms could become severe with damaging wind the primary
threat. SBCAPE values around 1000-1500 J/Kg will provide enough
buoyancy to maintain persistent multicells given increasing deep
layer shear of 30-40 kt. Mitigating factor to large hail will be
relatively weak mid level lapse rates around 6 deg/km and `thin`
CAPE profile aloft. However, forecast sounding profiles also
showing potential for heavy rainfall within storms, which could
result in isolated flash flooding. See hydro section for details.

Showers and storms will move into western New England during the
evening, and should tend to weaken but still may produce gusty
winds and downpours.

High temps expected to reach the upper 70s to lower 80s in most
locations, but will drop into the 60s during any persistent
showers or storms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The cold front will continue to move eastward across the Hudson
valley eastward into western New England this evening and
overnight. Will continue to mention likely showers and
thunderstorms for these areas, gradually tapering off from west to
east. The cold front should clear eastern portions of the area by
sunrise Wednesday.

There will still be a threat of isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms on Wednesday, as the upper level trough axis is
forecast to be positioned just to our west. Some of the storms
could be strong during the afternoon mainly for areas north and
east of the Hudson Valley depending on how much instability
develops ahead of the trough. The highest dewpoints will likely be
displaced to our east across central/eastern New England, but
lapse rates will be steepening due to the trough moving through.

Chances for leftover showers/storms should end Wednesday evening
as the trough shifts eastward into eastern New England. High
pressure will then build eastward from the Midwest and Great
Lakes, providing dry conditions and comfortably low humidity
levels with seasonable temperatures Wednesday night into Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Chances for convection as we head into the long holiday weekend
then fair weather is expected.

A vigorous short-wave is expected to be rotating about the base
of an upper level low near southern Hudson Bay Canada Thursday
night through Friday night. This feature will be accompanied by a
cold front at the surface. Showers and thunderstorms are expected
to develop and move across the region in response. Have limited
pops to chance for Friday and Friday night at this time due to
timing concerns.

The upper low is modeled to move slowly eastward across eastern
Canada over the holiday weekend eventually filling in and opening
up. Our region will remain on the southern periphery of the low
through Sunday with heights rising Sunday night and Monday as
ridging builds in.

Temperatures are expected to be seasonably warm Friday with cooler
readings by 5 to 10 degrees in the wake of the cold front for Saturday
and Sunday. Temperatures are anticipated to moderate back to normal
levels for Monday Independence Day.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR-IFR conditions are expected through the early morning mainly
due to ceilings. These conditions are expected to improve to VFR
after sunrise as the atmosphere mixes. Convection will develop
across the area impacting the TAFs sites this afternoon into the
evening as cold front approaches and gradually crosses the area.

Guidance indicates convection should initiated by afternoon across
the western Adirondacks and western Mohawk Valley with the storms
moving eastward across the area through the afternoon hours into
the evening. Have included a TEMPO group for thunderstorms with
MVFR conditions in each TAF. Brief IFR conditions can be expected
with the some storms but don`t have the confidence for timing to
include in TAFs. Some of the thunderstorms may become strong to
severe. Aloft an approaching short-wave will be rotating through
the base of the upper trough as the cold front approaches and
this will occur during the peak heating of the day. With dew
points in the 60s the airmass will become quite unstable. The
primary threat will be strong to damaging winds gusts.

Widespread MVFR condition are expected to develop for the overnight
in the wake of the convection.

Overall winds will be southerly through the TAF period; 06Z/Wednesday.
At KALB, gusts into the teens are expected during the afternoon.


Outlook...

Wed Night-Thu Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Fri-Fri Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sat: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A cold front will slowly move across our region this afternoon
and tonight, resulting in widespread showers and thunderstorms.
Some storms may be severe with damaging winds and heavy rainfall.
A disturbance will move through on Wednesday with a few more
showers and thunderstorms. High pressure will then build into the
region Wednesday night into Thursday, bringing dry weather.

Minimum relative humidity values this afternoon are expected to
be around 55 to 65 percent. RH values will then increase to
between 85 and 100 percent tonight. Minimum RH values on Wednesday
will be around 40 to 55 percent.

Winds today will be southerly around 5 to 10 mph, becoming
westerly tonight around 5 mph. Winds on Wednesday will be
northwest at 5 to 10 mph.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydro problems are expected over the next 5 days.
Showers and thunderstorms are likely across the region this
afternoon and tonight, ahead of and along a slow moving cold
front. Basin average rainfall will be around a half inch to an
inch, however locally heavy rainfall could result in isolated
amounts near or exceeding two inches. Ponding of water will occur
within thunderstorms, and even isolated flash flooding is possible
within persistent slow moving downpours. Antecedent conditions are
very dry though, so widespread hydro issues are not expected.

A few lingering showers and thunderstorms are possible Wednesday
with light qpf amounts.

Dry weather will return by Thursday, with high pressure moving
back in across the region.

The latest drought monitor now has most of our region labeled
`Abnormally Dry` (D0). In fact, over the past 30 days, most of our
region is approximately 1-3 inches below normal in terms of
rainfall.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...NAS/JPV




000
FXUS61 KALY 280834
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
434 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will slowly move across our region this afternoon
and tonight, resulting in widespread showers and thunderstorms.
Some storms may be severe with damaging winds and heavy rainfall.
A disturbance will move through on Wednesday with a few more
showers and thunderstorms. High pressure will then build into the
region Wednesday night into Thursday, bringing dry weather.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 336 AM EDT...

Severe thunderstorms possible across much of the region this
afternoon into this evening...

A moist and increasingly unstable air mass will be in place
today. Already early this morning temperatures are quite mild in
the 60s, with dewpoints also in the 60s making it humid. Lots of
low stratus clouds around early, but most of the area will see
breaks of sunshine by late morning into early afternoon, which
will allow for moderate instability to develop. The only area
where the stratus clouds and more stable conditions could hold on
longer is across eastern Dutchess, southern Berkshire, and
Litchfield counties where there is a Marginal Risk of severe
storms, compared to the greater Slight Risk farther west across
the rest of the area.

Large-scale ascent will result from low level convergence along a
slow moving cold front that will track eastward across the region
this afternoon and evening, combined with cyclonic vorticity
advection ahead of an upper level trough pushing eastward through
the eastern Great Lakes. This pattern will result in widespread
development of showers and storms, with hi-res models indicating
convective initiation across the western Adirondacks and Mohawk
Valley by early this afternoon. Storms will intensify and move
eastward into the Catskills and Hudson valley by mid to late
afternoon.

Thunderstorms could become severe with damaging wind the primary
threat. SBCAPE values around 1000-1500 J/Kg will provide enough
buoyancy to maintain persistent multicells given increasing deep
layer shear of 30-40 kt. Mitigating factor to large hail will be
relatively weak mid level lapse rates around 6 deg/km and `thin`
CAPE profile aloft. However, forecast sounding profiles also
showing potential for heavy rainfall within storms, which could
result in isolated flash flooding. See hydro section for details.

Showers and storms will move into western New England during the
evening, and should tend to weaken but still may produce gusty
winds and downpours.

High temps expected to reach the upper 70s to lower 80s in most
locations, but will drop into the 60s during any persistent
showers or storms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The cold front will continue to move eastward across the Hudson
valley eastward into western New England this evening and
overnight. Will continue to mention likely showers and
thunderstorms for these areas, gradually tapering off from west to
east. The cold front should clear eastern portions of the area by
sunrise Wednesday.

There will still be a threat of isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms on Wednesday, as the upper level trough axis is
forecast to be positioned just to our west. Some of the storms
could be strong during the afternoon mainly for areas north and
east of the Hudson Valley depending on how much instability
develops ahead of the trough. The highest dewpoints will likely be
displaced to our east across central/eastern New England, but
lapse rates will be steepening due to the trough moving through.

Chances for leftover showers/storms should end Wednesday evening
as the trough shifts eastward into eastern New England. High
pressure will then build eastward from the Midwest and Great
Lakes, providing dry conditions and comfortably low humidity
levels with seasonable temperatures Wednesday night into Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Chances for convection as we head into the long holiday weekend
then fair weather is expected.

A vigorous short-wave is expected to be rotating about the base
of an upper level low near southern Hudson Bay Canada Thursday
night through Friday night. This feature will be accompanied by a
cold front at the surface. Showers and thunderstorms are expected
to develop and move across the region in response. Have limited
pops to chance for Friday and Friday night at this time due to
timing concerns.

The upper low is modeled to move slowly eastward across eastern
Canada over the holiday weekend eventually filling in and opening
up. Our region will remain on the southern periphery of the low
through Sunday with heights rising Sunday night and Monday as
ridging builds in.

Temperatures are expected to be seasonably warm Friday with cooler
readings by 5 to 10 degrees in the wake of the cold front for Saturday
and Sunday. Temperatures are anticipated to moderate back to normal
levels for Monday Independence Day.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR-IFR conditions are expected through the early morning mainly
due to ceilings. These conditions are expected to improve to VFR
after sunrise as the atmosphere mixes. Convection will develop
across the area impacting the TAFs sites this afternoon into the
evening as cold front approaches and gradually crosses the area.

Guidance indicates convection should initiated by afternoon across
the western Adirondacks and western Mohawk Valley with the storms
moving eastward across the area through the afternoon hours into
the evening. Have included a TEMPO group for thunderstorms with
MVFR conditions in each TAF. Brief IFR conditions can be expected
with the some storms but don`t have the confidence for timing to
include in TAFs. Some of the thunderstorms may become strong to
severe. Aloft an approaching short-wave will be rotating through
the base of the upper trough as the cold front approaches and
this will occur during the peak heating of the day. With dew
points in the 60s the airmass will become quite unstable. The
primary threat will be strong to damaging winds gusts.

Widespread MVFR condition are expected to develop for the overnight
in the wake of the convection.

Overall winds will be southerly through the TAF period; 06Z/Wednesday.
At KALB, gusts into the teens are expected during the afternoon.


Outlook...

Wed Night-Thu Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Fri-Fri Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sat: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A cold front will slowly move across our region this afternoon
and tonight, resulting in widespread showers and thunderstorms.
Some storms may be severe with damaging winds and heavy rainfall.
A disturbance will move through on Wednesday with a few more
showers and thunderstorms. High pressure will then build into the
region Wednesday night into Thursday, bringing dry weather.

Minimum relative humidity values this afternoon are expected to
be around 55 to 65 percent. RH values will then increase to
between 85 and 100 percent tonight. Minimum RH values on Wednesday
will be around 40 to 55 percent.

Winds today will be southerly around 5 to 10 mph, becoming
westerly tonight around 5 mph. Winds on Wednesday will be
northwest at 5 to 10 mph.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydro problems are expected over the next 5 days.
Showers and thunderstorms are likely across the region this
afternoon and tonight, ahead of and along a slow moving cold
front. Basin average rainfall will be around a half inch to an
inch, however locally heavy rainfall could result in isolated
amounts near or exceeding two inches. Ponding of water will occur
within thunderstorms, and even isolated flash flooding is possible
within persistent slow moving downpours. Antecedent conditions are
very dry though, so widespread hydro issues are not expected.

A few lingering showers and thunderstorms are possible Wednesday
with light qpf amounts.

Dry weather will return by Thursday, with high pressure moving
back in across the region.

The latest drought monitor now has most of our region labeled
`Abnormally Dry` (D0). In fact, over the past 30 days, most of our
region is approximately 1-3 inches below normal in terms of
rainfall.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...NAS/JPV




000
FXUS61 KALY 280834
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
434 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will slowly move across our region this afternoon
and tonight, resulting in widespread showers and thunderstorms.
Some storms may be severe with damaging winds and heavy rainfall.
A disturbance will move through on Wednesday with a few more
showers and thunderstorms. High pressure will then build into the
region Wednesday night into Thursday, bringing dry weather.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 336 AM EDT...

Severe thunderstorms possible across much of the region this
afternoon into this evening...

A moist and increasingly unstable air mass will be in place
today. Already early this morning temperatures are quite mild in
the 60s, with dewpoints also in the 60s making it humid. Lots of
low stratus clouds around early, but most of the area will see
breaks of sunshine by late morning into early afternoon, which
will allow for moderate instability to develop. The only area
where the stratus clouds and more stable conditions could hold on
longer is across eastern Dutchess, southern Berkshire, and
Litchfield counties where there is a Marginal Risk of severe
storms, compared to the greater Slight Risk farther west across
the rest of the area.

Large-scale ascent will result from low level convergence along a
slow moving cold front that will track eastward across the region
this afternoon and evening, combined with cyclonic vorticity
advection ahead of an upper level trough pushing eastward through
the eastern Great Lakes. This pattern will result in widespread
development of showers and storms, with hi-res models indicating
convective initiation across the western Adirondacks and Mohawk
Valley by early this afternoon. Storms will intensify and move
eastward into the Catskills and Hudson valley by mid to late
afternoon.

Thunderstorms could become severe with damaging wind the primary
threat. SBCAPE values around 1000-1500 J/Kg will provide enough
buoyancy to maintain persistent multicells given increasing deep
layer shear of 30-40 kt. Mitigating factor to large hail will be
relatively weak mid level lapse rates around 6 deg/km and `thin`
CAPE profile aloft. However, forecast sounding profiles also
showing potential for heavy rainfall within storms, which could
result in isolated flash flooding. See hydro section for details.

Showers and storms will move into western New England during the
evening, and should tend to weaken but still may produce gusty
winds and downpours.

High temps expected to reach the upper 70s to lower 80s in most
locations, but will drop into the 60s during any persistent
showers or storms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The cold front will continue to move eastward across the Hudson
valley eastward into western New England this evening and
overnight. Will continue to mention likely showers and
thunderstorms for these areas, gradually tapering off from west to
east. The cold front should clear eastern portions of the area by
sunrise Wednesday.

There will still be a threat of isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms on Wednesday, as the upper level trough axis is
forecast to be positioned just to our west. Some of the storms
could be strong during the afternoon mainly for areas north and
east of the Hudson Valley depending on how much instability
develops ahead of the trough. The highest dewpoints will likely be
displaced to our east across central/eastern New England, but
lapse rates will be steepening due to the trough moving through.

Chances for leftover showers/storms should end Wednesday evening
as the trough shifts eastward into eastern New England. High
pressure will then build eastward from the Midwest and Great
Lakes, providing dry conditions and comfortably low humidity
levels with seasonable temperatures Wednesday night into Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Chances for convection as we head into the long holiday weekend
then fair weather is expected.

A vigorous short-wave is expected to be rotating about the base
of an upper level low near southern Hudson Bay Canada Thursday
night through Friday night. This feature will be accompanied by a
cold front at the surface. Showers and thunderstorms are expected
to develop and move across the region in response. Have limited
pops to chance for Friday and Friday night at this time due to
timing concerns.

The upper low is modeled to move slowly eastward across eastern
Canada over the holiday weekend eventually filling in and opening
up. Our region will remain on the southern periphery of the low
through Sunday with heights rising Sunday night and Monday as
ridging builds in.

Temperatures are expected to be seasonably warm Friday with cooler
readings by 5 to 10 degrees in the wake of the cold front for Saturday
and Sunday. Temperatures are anticipated to moderate back to normal
levels for Monday Independence Day.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR-IFR conditions are expected through the early morning mainly
due to ceilings. These conditions are expected to improve to VFR
after sunrise as the atmosphere mixes. Convection will develop
across the area impacting the TAFs sites this afternoon into the
evening as cold front approaches and gradually crosses the area.

Guidance indicates convection should initiated by afternoon across
the western Adirondacks and western Mohawk Valley with the storms
moving eastward across the area through the afternoon hours into
the evening. Have included a TEMPO group for thunderstorms with
MVFR conditions in each TAF. Brief IFR conditions can be expected
with the some storms but don`t have the confidence for timing to
include in TAFs. Some of the thunderstorms may become strong to
severe. Aloft an approaching short-wave will be rotating through
the base of the upper trough as the cold front approaches and
this will occur during the peak heating of the day. With dew
points in the 60s the airmass will become quite unstable. The
primary threat will be strong to damaging winds gusts.

Widespread MVFR condition are expected to develop for the overnight
in the wake of the convection.

Overall winds will be southerly through the TAF period; 06Z/Wednesday.
At KALB, gusts into the teens are expected during the afternoon.


Outlook...

Wed Night-Thu Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Fri-Fri Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sat: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A cold front will slowly move across our region this afternoon
and tonight, resulting in widespread showers and thunderstorms.
Some storms may be severe with damaging winds and heavy rainfall.
A disturbance will move through on Wednesday with a few more
showers and thunderstorms. High pressure will then build into the
region Wednesday night into Thursday, bringing dry weather.

Minimum relative humidity values this afternoon are expected to
be around 55 to 65 percent. RH values will then increase to
between 85 and 100 percent tonight. Minimum RH values on Wednesday
will be around 40 to 55 percent.

Winds today will be southerly around 5 to 10 mph, becoming
westerly tonight around 5 mph. Winds on Wednesday will be
northwest at 5 to 10 mph.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydro problems are expected over the next 5 days.
Showers and thunderstorms are likely across the region this
afternoon and tonight, ahead of and along a slow moving cold
front. Basin average rainfall will be around a half inch to an
inch, however locally heavy rainfall could result in isolated
amounts near or exceeding two inches. Ponding of water will occur
within thunderstorms, and even isolated flash flooding is possible
within persistent slow moving downpours. Antecedent conditions are
very dry though, so widespread hydro issues are not expected.

A few lingering showers and thunderstorms are possible Wednesday
with light qpf amounts.

Dry weather will return by Thursday, with high pressure moving
back in across the region.

The latest drought monitor now has most of our region labeled
`Abnormally Dry` (D0). In fact, over the past 30 days, most of our
region is approximately 1-3 inches below normal in terms of
rainfall.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...NAS/JPV




000
FXUS61 KOKX 280823
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
423 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move slowly east passing across the area on
Wednesday. High pressure will follow Thursday. Another cold front
will move southeast across the area Friday night followed by High
pressure during the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A band of light to moderate rain extending from coastal NJ NE
across SW CT continues to move very slowly east across the region.
Most rainfall amounts ranged from 1/3 to 2/3-inch with HPN
measuring .92 inches with a maximum hourly rate of .49 inches.

Rain is forecast to taper off from W to E by 12z.

Otherwise...low stratus and patchy fog, locally dense will prevail
until around 15z.

A short wave trough will be moving SE toward the area along with
its` surface cold front reflection. With abundant low level
moisture in place and the cold front serving as the trigger, SCT
TSTMS are forecast to develop ahead of the cold front and move
toward the Lower Hudson Valley and Northern NJ aft 18z. The degree
of surface based instability is uncertain based on clouds
dissipating upstream.

In any case, there is a Slight Risk or severe TSTMs mainly for
Orange County and a Marginal Risk further east across NYC and SW
CT...mainly aft 20z with damaging winds being the primary threat.
Based on high sfc dew points and precipitable water contents, can
not rule out isolated flash flooding of low lying and poor
drainage areas.

An Outlook was issued for these potential hazards and impacts.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
The short wave trough is forecast to gradually move east with the
trough axis nearly overhead by 6 pm Wednesday.

Any potential severe TSTMs Tuesday evening should end by midnight
with showers ending by 10z Wednesday.

SCT instability TSTMs are possible aft 16z Wednesday with the
approach of the short wave trough axis.

Temperatures are forecast near normal through the period.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As has been the case for the last several weeks, still no hot
weather on tap for the region with minor fluctuations around the
mean. The mean upper trough will continue to reside across eastern
Canada, the Great Lakes, and Northeast, while an amplified upper
ridge over the western U.S. gradually flattens into early next
week. At the same time, an upper low near Hudson Bay translates
east.

At the surface, weak high pressure over the Midwest builds into the
area Thursday and then offshore Thursday night ahead of an
approaching cold front and pre-frontal trough. The latter of which
is associated with the upper low/trough working across eastern
Canada. There is a chance of showers and thunderstorms Friday into
Friday night with the best chance being across the interior where
the greatest instability will exist. Deep-layer shear increases with
the approaching upper trough. Dry air could be a limiting factor for
any organization. Cold front works east of the area Saturday morning
with high pressure to follow through early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

A weak trough of low pressure will pass through the region through
the early morning hours. A cold front then approaches later today
and passes through the region late tonight through Wednesday morning.

S/SE winds 5-10 KT will increase to 10-15 KT later today. If
breaks of sunshine develop, winds for coastal terminals could be
around 5 kt stronger than forecast, along with potential gusts 20 to
25 kt.

MVFR/IFR conditions in fog/stratus through daybreak. Rain shield
east of KNYC and moving through SE CT and LI. Another area of
showers possible from 10-14Z.

Widespread fog/stratus likely on tap for most areas through the
afternoon with IFR/MVFR conditions.

Cold front approaches late in the day. SHRA/TSRA will develop
north and west of KNYC terminals and track east. Will carry PROB30
groups for KNYC and interior terminals. Not confident enough in
TSRA development for LI/SE CT.

Widespread fog/stratus will develop again late tonight with IFR
conditions.

...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http://www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: Low confidence in the forecast. AMDs expected
throughout the day for changes in flight categories.

KLGA TAF Comments: Low confidence in the forecast. AMDs expected
throughout the day for changes in flight categories.

KEWR TAF Comments: Low confidence in the forecast. AMDs expected
throughout the day for changes in flight categories.

The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is YELLOW...which implies
slant range visibility 4-6SM outside of cloud.

KTEB TAF Comments: Low confidence in the forecast. AMDs expected
throughout the day for changes in flight categories.

KHPN TAF Comments: Low confidence in the forecast. IFR conditions
likely through most of the day.

KISP TAF Comments: Low confidence in the forecast. AMDs expected
throughout the day for changes in flight categories.

.OUTLOOK FOR 09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.Late Tonight...MVFR and IFR/lower (coastal terminals) conditions
likely in showers/isolated tstms and/or low clouds/fog.

.Wednesday...MVFR and IFR/lower (coastal terminals) conditions
possible via morning fog/low clouds and showers/isolated tstms.

.Wednesday afternoon through Friday morning...VFR.

.Friday night...MVFR or IFR conditions possible in showers/tstms.

.Saturday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas are forecast to generally remain below Small Craft
Advisory/SCA levels of 25 kt and 5 feet across the Atlantic Ocean
coastal waters through the period.

This Morning...Vsby of 1 to 3 nm possible in patchy fog with
scattered showers.

Late Afternoon through Tonight...Scattered TSTMs are possible with
the approach of a cold front along with Vsby of 1 to 3 NM in
patchy fog.

Cold frontal passages with wind shifts are forecast late
Wednesday and Friday night.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
This Morning: Up to 1/2-inch rainfall is possible across Long
Island and Southern CT.

This Afternoon through Tonight: 1/4 to 3/4-inches possible with
isolated higher amounts in heavier showers and SCT TSTMS. Can not
rule out isolated flash flooding of low lying poor drainage areas.

Friday Afternoon and Evening: Scattered showers and thunderstorms
may produce localized heavy rainfall, mainly north and west of
NYC.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GC/DW
NEAR TERM...GC
SHORT TERM...GC
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...GC/DW
HYDROLOGY...GC/DW




000
FXUS61 KOKX 280823
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
423 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move slowly east passing across the area on
Wednesday. High pressure will follow Thursday. Another cold front
will move southeast across the area Friday night followed by High
pressure during the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A band of light to moderate rain extending from coastal NJ NE
across SW CT continues to move very slowly east across the region.
Most rainfall amounts ranged from 1/3 to 2/3-inch with HPN
measuring .92 inches with a maximum hourly rate of .49 inches.

Rain is forecast to taper off from W to E by 12z.

Otherwise...low stratus and patchy fog, locally dense will prevail
until around 15z.

A short wave trough will be moving SE toward the area along with
its` surface cold front reflection. With abundant low level
moisture in place and the cold front serving as the trigger, SCT
TSTMS are forecast to develop ahead of the cold front and move
toward the Lower Hudson Valley and Northern NJ aft 18z. The degree
of surface based instability is uncertain based on clouds
dissipating upstream.

In any case, there is a Slight Risk or severe TSTMs mainly for
Orange County and a Marginal Risk further east across NYC and SW
CT...mainly aft 20z with damaging winds being the primary threat.
Based on high sfc dew points and precipitable water contents, can
not rule out isolated flash flooding of low lying and poor
drainage areas.

An Outlook was issued for these potential hazards and impacts.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
The short wave trough is forecast to gradually move east with the
trough axis nearly overhead by 6 pm Wednesday.

Any potential severe TSTMs Tuesday evening should end by midnight
with showers ending by 10z Wednesday.

SCT instability TSTMs are possible aft 16z Wednesday with the
approach of the short wave trough axis.

Temperatures are forecast near normal through the period.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As has been the case for the last several weeks, still no hot
weather on tap for the region with minor fluctuations around the
mean. The mean upper trough will continue to reside across eastern
Canada, the Great Lakes, and Northeast, while an amplified upper
ridge over the western U.S. gradually flattens into early next
week. At the same time, an upper low near Hudson Bay translates
east.

At the surface, weak high pressure over the Midwest builds into the
area Thursday and then offshore Thursday night ahead of an
approaching cold front and pre-frontal trough. The latter of which
is associated with the upper low/trough working across eastern
Canada. There is a chance of showers and thunderstorms Friday into
Friday night with the best chance being across the interior where
the greatest instability will exist. Deep-layer shear increases with
the approaching upper trough. Dry air could be a limiting factor for
any organization. Cold front works east of the area Saturday morning
with high pressure to follow through early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

A weak trough of low pressure will pass through the region through
the early morning hours. A cold front then approaches later today
and passes through the region late tonight through Wednesday morning.

S/SE winds 5-10 KT will increase to 10-15 KT later today. If
breaks of sunshine develop, winds for coastal terminals could be
around 5 kt stronger than forecast, along with potential gusts 20 to
25 kt.

MVFR/IFR conditions in fog/stratus through daybreak. Rain shield
east of KNYC and moving through SE CT and LI. Another area of
showers possible from 10-14Z.

Widespread fog/stratus likely on tap for most areas through the
afternoon with IFR/MVFR conditions.

Cold front approaches late in the day. SHRA/TSRA will develop
north and west of KNYC terminals and track east. Will carry PROB30
groups for KNYC and interior terminals. Not confident enough in
TSRA development for LI/SE CT.

Widespread fog/stratus will develop again late tonight with IFR
conditions.

...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http://www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: Low confidence in the forecast. AMDs expected
throughout the day for changes in flight categories.

KLGA TAF Comments: Low confidence in the forecast. AMDs expected
throughout the day for changes in flight categories.

KEWR TAF Comments: Low confidence in the forecast. AMDs expected
throughout the day for changes in flight categories.

The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is YELLOW...which implies
slant range visibility 4-6SM outside of cloud.

KTEB TAF Comments: Low confidence in the forecast. AMDs expected
throughout the day for changes in flight categories.

KHPN TAF Comments: Low confidence in the forecast. IFR conditions
likely through most of the day.

KISP TAF Comments: Low confidence in the forecast. AMDs expected
throughout the day for changes in flight categories.

.OUTLOOK FOR 09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.Late Tonight...MVFR and IFR/lower (coastal terminals) conditions
likely in showers/isolated tstms and/or low clouds/fog.

.Wednesday...MVFR and IFR/lower (coastal terminals) conditions
possible via morning fog/low clouds and showers/isolated tstms.

.Wednesday afternoon through Friday morning...VFR.

.Friday night...MVFR or IFR conditions possible in showers/tstms.

.Saturday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas are forecast to generally remain below Small Craft
Advisory/SCA levels of 25 kt and 5 feet across the Atlantic Ocean
coastal waters through the period.

This Morning...Vsby of 1 to 3 nm possible in patchy fog with
scattered showers.

Late Afternoon through Tonight...Scattered TSTMs are possible with
the approach of a cold front along with Vsby of 1 to 3 NM in
patchy fog.

Cold frontal passages with wind shifts are forecast late
Wednesday and Friday night.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
This Morning: Up to 1/2-inch rainfall is possible across Long
Island and Southern CT.

This Afternoon through Tonight: 1/4 to 3/4-inches possible with
isolated higher amounts in heavier showers and SCT TSTMS. Can not
rule out isolated flash flooding of low lying poor drainage areas.

Friday Afternoon and Evening: Scattered showers and thunderstorms
may produce localized heavy rainfall, mainly north and west of
NYC.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GC/DW
NEAR TERM...GC
SHORT TERM...GC
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...GC/DW
HYDROLOGY...GC/DW




000
FXUS61 KOKX 280805
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
405 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move slowly east passing across the area on
Wednesday. High pressure will follow Thursday. Another cold front
will move southeast across the area Friday night followed by High
pressure during the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A band of light to moderate rain extending from coastal NJ NE
across SW CT continues to move very slowly east across the region.
Most rainfall amounts ranged from 1/3 to 2/3-inch with HPN
measuring .92 inches with a maximum hourly rate of .49 inches.

Rain is forecast to taper off from W to E by 12z.

Otherwise...low stratus and patchy fog, locally dense will prevail
until around 15z.

A short wave trough will be moving SE toward the area along with
its` surface cold front reflection. With abundant low level
moisture in place and the cold front serving as the trigger, SCT
TSTMS are forecast to develop ahead of the cold front and move
toward the Lower Hudson Valley and Northern NJ aft 18z. The degree
of surface based instability is uncertain based on clouds
dissipating upstream.

In any case, there is a Slight Risk or severe TSTMs mainly for
Orange County and a Marginal Risk further east across NYC and SW
CT...mainly aft 20z with damaging winds being the primary threat.
Based on high sfc dew points and precipitable water contents, can
not rule out isolated flash flooding of low lying and poor
drainage areas.

An Outlook was issued for these potential hazards and impacts.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
The short wave trough is forecast to gradually move east with the
trough axis nearly overhead by 6 pm Wednesday.

Any potential severe TSTMs Tuesday evening should end by midnight
with showers ending by 10z Wednesday.

SCT instability TSTMs are possible aft 16z Wednesday with the
approach of the short wave trough axis.

Temperatures are forecast near normal through the period.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Mean upper trough will remain across Eastern Canada and the
Northeast through the period with near seasonable temps through
the weekend and mainly dry conditions. A high amplitude ridge
over the mid section on the country briefly expands east Friday
into Saturday with warming heights aloft and the approach of a
warm front Saturday afternoon and night. This is short lived
though as strong jet energy from the Northwest territories of
Canada dives southeast across Hudson Bay Saturday and into the
Northeast Sunday into Monday with a deepening cutoff low. This
will be preceded by a cold frontal passage on Sunday followed by
temps early next week at or below seasonable levels. Stayed with a
model consensus at this time, but should this solution materialize
a much colder airmass could be in store for Monday into Tuesday
with moderation by midweek as heights aloft begin to rise. The
best chance for rainfall is with the aforementioned warm front and
cold frontal passage Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning. This
would be in the form of showers, possibly a thunderstorm. Rainfall
amounts remain uncertain at this time due to the area being on
the eastern periphery of the overrunning rain shield.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A weak trough of low pressure will pass through the region through
the early morning hours. A cold front then approaches later today
and passes through the region late tonight through Wednesday
morning.

S/SE winds 5-10 KT will increase to 10-15 KT later today. If
breaks of sunshine develop, winds for coastal terminals could be
around 5 kt stronger than forecast, with gusts 20 to 25 kt.

MVFR/IFR conditions in rain/fog for the early morning hours. Rain
shield slowly working its way through KNYC terminals, and them
more showers develop towards daybreak.

Widespread fog/stratus likely on tap for most areas through the
afternoon with IFR/MVFR conditions.

Cold front approaches late in the day. SHRA/TSRA will develop
north and west of KNYC terminals and track east. Will carry PROB30
groups for KNYC and interior terminals. Not confident enough in
TSRA development for LI/SE CT.

Widespread fog/stratus will develop late tonight with IFR
conditions.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.Tonight...MVFR and IFR/lower (coastal terminals) conditions
likely in showers/isolated tstms and/or low clouds/fog.

.Wednesday...MVFR and IFR/lower (coastal terminals) conditions
possible via morning fog/low clouds and showers/isolated tstms.

.Wednesday afternoon through Friday morning...VFR.

.Friday night...MVFR or IFR conditions possible in showers/tstms.

.Saturday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas are forecast to generally remain below Small Craft
Advisory/SCA levels of 25 kt and 5 feet across the Atlantic Ocean
coastal waters through the period.

This Morning...Vsby of 1 to 3 nm possible in patchy fog with
scattered showers.

Late Afternoon through Tonight...Scattered TSTMs are possible with
the approach of a cold front along with Vsby of 1 to 3 NM in
patchy fog.

Cold frontal passages with wind shifts are forecast late
Wednesday, Friday night and Sunday.

A cold frontal passage on Sunday will be followed by a stronger
NW flow that could bring marginal SCA conditions to the waters
late Sunday into Monday, with the best chance being across the
ocean waters.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
This Morning: Up to 1/2-inch rainfall is possible across Long
Island and Southern CT.

This Afternoon through Tonight: 1/4 to 3/4-inches possible with
isolated higher amounts in heavier showers and SCT TSTMS. Can not
rule out isolated flash flooding of low lying poor drainage areas.

Friday Afternoon and Evening: Scattered showers and thunderstorms
may produce localized heavy rainfall, mainly north and west of
NYC.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GC/DW
NEAR TERM...GC
SHORT TERM...GC
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...GC/DW
HYDROLOGY...GC/DW




000
FXUS61 KBOX 280748
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
348 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving cold front will bring scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms into Wednesday, with the bulk of the activity
occurring tonight. This front will push offshore Wednesday night.
High pressure then brings dry seasonable weather for Thursday.
Another cold front may bring more showers and thunderstorms Friday
or Saturday. Dry weather returns for the remainder of the holiday
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Scattered showers were on going early this morning. This hit and
miss activity was the result of a shortwave and a burst of some
marginal elevated instability, with the main focus for this activity
to the northwest of Boston to Providence line.

The bulk of these scattered showers should come to an end by mid to
late morning, as shortwave departs.  While warm advection will
continue to result in the risk for a few spot showers, dry weather
will dominate the rest of today with bulk of forcing/instability
well to our northwest ahead of a cold front. Deep low level moisture
will also result in considerable cloudiness at times, but still
expect peeks of sunshine especially across southeast New England.

High temps will mainly be in the upper 70s to lower 80s, but a few
locales may reach into the middle 80s.  It will also feel somewhat
humid outside with dewpoints well into the 60s, something we have
not seen much of so far this month.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
***Scattered showers/thunderstorms with brief localized heavy
rainfall possible between 9 pm tonight and 5 am Wednesday morning
but severe weather threat is rather low***

Tonight...

Showers and thunderstorms will be on going across Eastern NY early
this evening.  This activity will attempt to work into western
MA/Northern CT by mid to late evening, but should weaken with
diminishing instability/poor mid level lapse rates.  Still may see
some thunder and brief locally heavy rainfall in these locations.
Greater threat for scattered showers/thunderstorms with brief
locally heavy rainfall may set up across Eastern MA/Eastern CT and
RI near or after midnight. This on the nose of a 30 to 40 knot
southerly low level jet, MUcapes between 200 and 500 J/kg, and PWATS
between 1.5 and 2 inches. Guidance not completely sold on where and
if this sets up, but given the above parameters certainly a
possibility.  Severe weather threat looks rather low given limited
instability/timing. Bulk of the activity should be offshore near
daybreak.  Low temps will mainly be in the 60s and may see some
patchy fog develop.

Wednesday...

The actual surface cold front will sweep across the region on
Wednesday.  While the vast majority of the day will be dry, there is
a low risk for a few strong thunderstorms developing Wed afternoon
ahead of the front.  Whether or not this activity develops hinges on
if enough mid level moisture remains. While this is uncertain, the
highest risk is across Eastern MA/RI where moisture will be a bit
deeper.

We should see 1000+ j/kg of Cape develop across Eastern New England
ahead of the front along with 0 to 6 km shear values of 30 to 40
knots.  Colder air moving in aloft will result in somewhat steeper
mid level lapse rates, but nothing too extreme.

The above parameters are supportive for the possibility of a few
strong thunderstorms Wed afternoon.  However, mid levels of the
atmosphere will be drying out and may limit or prevent convection.
So in a nutshell, there is a low risk for a few strong thunderstorms
Wednesday afternoon with an isolated strong wind/hail threat if dry
mid level air can be overcome. Highest risk across Eastern MA/RI
between noon and 6 pm.

High temps should generally reach into the lower to middle 80s away
from the immediate coast.  Still somewhat humid with dewpoints in
the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Highlights...

* High pressure brings dry weather Thursday
* A cold front brings showers and thunderstorms Friday/Saturday
* High pressure brings dry weather for the remainder of the holiday
  weekend

Overview...Relatively quiet pattern continues with broad upper level
ridge over the western U.S. and broad upper troughing over the
eastern U.S.  The ridging pushes into the center of the country by
early next week.  Models are in good agreement on the synoptic
pattern and will use a blend of available guidance for this
forecast. A cold front will move offshore Wednesday night bringing
in slightly cooler but quiet weather for Thursday.  Another cold
front will move through southern New England Friday or Saturday
(ECMWF is a bit faster than the GFS), bringing showers and
potentially thunderstorms to the area.  High pressure builds into
New England from the Great Lakes for the remainder of the holiday
weekend.

Temperatures...After slightly cooler temperatures Thursday,
temperatures will warm into the weekend.  The cold front will bring
another slightly cooler day Sunday before temperatures warm once
again.  Overall, temperatures will be right around to a few degrees
above normal with highs generally in the 80s and lows in the upper
50s to lower 60s.

Precipitation...The only shot of rain in the long term forecast is
showers and possibly thunderstorms with the cold front Friday or
Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Wednesday/...

Today...Moderate confidence.  MVFR conditions in low clouds to the
northwest of a Boston to Providence line will probably improve to
mainly VFR by afternoon.  Bulk of scattered showers should also come
to an end by mid to late morning. Otherwise, mainly VFR conditions
expected the rest of the day.

Tonight...Moderate confidence.  Conditions lower to MVFR-IFR
thresholds as boundary layer cools with an abundance of low level
moisture.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms also expected with
main risk between 1z and 9z.

Wednesday...Moderate to high confidence.  MVFR-IFR conditions should
improve to mainly VFR by afternoon as low clouds/fog patches
dissipate.  Low risk for a few strong thunderstorms Wed afternoon,
mainly Eastern MA/RI.

KBOS TAF...Moderate to high confidence in TAF.

KBDL TAF...Moderate confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Wednesday Night through Saturday/...

Wednesday night and Thursday...High confidence.  Mainly VFR
conditions. Any lingering MVFR conditions Wednesday night will
improve quickly to VFR.  Light and variable winds.

Friday and Saturday...Moderate confidence.  Mainly VFR conditions
and dry weather. Scattered showers and thunderstorms may result in
brief periods of MVFR conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Wednesday/...High confidence.

Winds and seas will generally remain below small craft advisory
thresholds through Wednesday afternoon. South to southwest wind
gusts of 20 knots are expected at times with 2 to 4 foot seas across
the open waters.  Main concern is for areas of fog tonight into Wed
am across the southern waters.  May also see a few thunderstorms
with brief heavy rain overnight.

Outlook /Wednesday Night through Saturday/...

High confidence.  Mainly quiet boating weather expected.  Winds and
seas remain below SCA criteria throughout the period. However, they
will increase as a cold front approaches and then crosses over the
coastal waters sometime late Friday to Saturday. This will result in
showers and thunderstorms, which will reduce visibilities at
times.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Frank/RLG
NEAR TERM...Frank
SHORT TERM...Frank
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...Frank/RLG
MARINE...Frank/RLG




000
FXUS61 KALY 280736
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
336 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will slowly move across our region this afternoon
and tonight, resulting in widespread showers and thunderstorms.
Some storms may be severe with damaging winds and heavy rainfall.
A disturbance will move through on Wednesday with a few more
showers and thunderstorms. High pressure will then build into the
region Wednesday night into Thursday, bringing dry weather.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 336 AM EDT...

Severe thunderstorms possible across much of the region this
afternoon into this evening...

A moist and increasingly unstable air mass will be in place
today. Already early this morning temperatures are quite mild in
the 60s, with dewpoints also in the 60s making it humid. Lots of
low stratus clouds around early, but most of the area will see
breaks of sunshine by late morning into early afternoon, which
will allow for moderate instability to develop. The only area
where the stratus clouds and more stable conditions could hold on
longer is across eastern Dutchess, southern Berkshire, and
Litchfield counties where there is a Marginal Risk of severe
storms, compared to the greater Slight Risk farther west across
the rest of the area.

Large-scale ascent will result from low level convergence along a
slow moving cold front that will track eastward across the region
this afternoon and evening, combined with cyclonic vorticity
advection ahead of an upper level trough pushing eastward through
the eastern Great Lakes. This pattern will result in widespread
development of showers and storms, with hi-res models indicating
convective initiation across the western Adirondacks and Mohawk
Valley by early this afternoon. Storms will intensify and move
eastward into the Catskills and Hudson valley by mid to late
afternoon.

Thunderstorms could become severe with damaging wind the primary
threat. SBCAPE values around 1000-1500 J/Kg will provide enough
buoyancy to maintain persistent multicells given increasing deep
layer shear of 30-40 kt. Mitigating factor to large hail will be
relatively weak mid level lapse rates around 6 deg/km and `thin`
CAPE profile aloft. However, forecast sounding profiles also
showing potential for heavy rainfall within storms, which could
result in isolated flash flooding. See hydro section for details.

Showers and storms will move into western New England during the
evening, and should tend to weaken but still may produce gusty
winds and downpours.

High temps expected to reach the upper 70s to lower 80s in most
locations, but will drop into the 60s during any persistent
showers or storms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The cold front will continue to move eastward across the Hudson
valley eastward into western New England this evening and
overnight. Will continue to mention likely showers and
thunderstorms for these areas, gradually tapering off from west to
east. The cold front should clear eastern portions of the area by
sunrise Wednesday.

There will still be a threat of isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms on Wednesday, as the upper level trough axis is
forecast to be positioned just to our west. Some of the storms
could be strong during the afternoon mainly for areas north and
east of the Hudson Valley depending on how much instability
develops ahead of the trough. The highest dewpoints will likely be
displaced to our east across central/eastern New England, but
lapse rates will be steepening due to the trough moving through.

Chances for leftover showers/storms should end Wednesday evening
as the trough shifts eastward into eastern New England. High
pressure will then build eastward from the Midwest and Great
Lakes, providing dry conditions and comfortably low humidity
levels with seasonable temperatures Wednesday night into Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Not much change from the previous long term forecast package as a
rather persistent northwest flow regime will reestablish itself
heading into the holiday weekend.

We begin the period with a surface ridge and southwest flow regime
aloft with warm and a bit humid conditions ahead of a cold front
approaching the Great Lakes region.  Global models are in good
agreement with the synoptic pattern as we will retain the chance for
showers and thunderstorms in the forecast heading into Friday.

The passage of the cold front will usher in a bit cooler but
noticeably drier air mass for the weekend with mainly dry conditions.
There are some hints of a weak wave moving southeast toward the St
Lawrence Valley and Adirondack Park on Sunday where we will place a
slight chance wording.

Highs will generally range between 75-85F and overnight lows mainly
into the 50s.

A quick look into Independence Holiday forecast, dry and seasonable
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR-IFR conditions are expected through the early morning mainly
due to ceilings. These conditions are expected to improve to VFR
after sunrise as the atmosphere mixes. Convection will develop
across the area impacting the TAFs sites this afternoon into the
evening as cold front approaches and gradually crosses the area.

Guidance indicates convection should initiated by afternoon across
the western Adirondacks and western Mohawk Valley with the storms
moving eastward across the area through the afternoon hours into
the evening. Have included a TEMPO group for thunderstorms with
MVFR conditions in each TAF. Brief IFR conditions can be expected
with the some storms but don`t have the confidence for timing to
include in TAFs. Some of the thunderstorms may become strong to
severe. Aloft an approaching short-wave will be rotating through
the base of the upper trough as the cold front approaches and
this will occur during the peak heating of the day. With dew
points in the 60s the airmass will become quite unstable. The
primary threat will be strong to damaging winds gusts.

Widespread MVFR condition are expected to develop for the overnight
in the wake of the convection.

Overall winds will be southerly through the TAF period; 06Z/Wednesday.
At KALB, gusts into the teens are expected during the afternoon.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA.
Wednesday Night-Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A cold front will slowly move across our region this afternoon
and tonight, resulting in widespread showers and thunderstorms.
Some storms may be severe with damaging winds and heavy rainfall.
A disturbance will move through on Wednesday with a few more
showers and thunderstorms. High pressure will then build into the
region Wednesday night into Thursday, bringing dry weather.

Minimum relative humidity values this afternoon are expected to
be around 55 to 65 percent. RH values will then increase to
between 85 and 100 percent tonight. Minimum RH values on Wednesday
will be around 40 to 55 percent.

Winds today will be southerly around 5 to 10 mph, becoming
westerly tonight around 5 mph. Winds on Wednesday will be
northwest at 5 to 10 mph.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydro problems are expected over the next 5 days.
Showers and thunderstorms are likely across the region this
afternoon and tonight, ahead of and along a slow moving cold
front. Basin average rainfall will be around a half inch to an
inch, however locally heavy rainfall could result in isolated
amounts near or exceeding two inches. Ponding of water will occur
within thunderstorms, and even isolated flash flooding is possible
within persistent slow moving downpours. Antecedent conditions are
very dry though, so widespread hydro issues are not expected.

A few lingering showers and thunderstorms are possible Wednesday
with light qpf amounts.

Dry weather will return by Thursday, with high pressure moving
back in across the region.

The latest drought monitor now has most of our region labeled
`Abnormally Dry` (D0). In fact, over the past 30 days, most of our
region is approximately 1-3 inches below normal in terms of
rainfall.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...NAS/JPV




000
FXUS61 KALY 280736
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
336 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will slowly move across our region this afternoon
and tonight, resulting in widespread showers and thunderstorms.
Some storms may be severe with damaging winds and heavy rainfall.
A disturbance will move through on Wednesday with a few more
showers and thunderstorms. High pressure will then build into the
region Wednesday night into Thursday, bringing dry weather.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 336 AM EDT...

Severe thunderstorms possible across much of the region this
afternoon into this evening...

A moist and increasingly unstable air mass will be in place
today. Already early this morning temperatures are quite mild in
the 60s, with dewpoints also in the 60s making it humid. Lots of
low stratus clouds around early, but most of the area will see
breaks of sunshine by late morning into early afternoon, which
will allow for moderate instability to develop. The only area
where the stratus clouds and more stable conditions could hold on
longer is across eastern Dutchess, southern Berkshire, and
Litchfield counties where there is a Marginal Risk of severe
storms, compared to the greater Slight Risk farther west across
the rest of the area.

Large-scale ascent will result from low level convergence along a
slow moving cold front that will track eastward across the region
this afternoon and evening, combined with cyclonic vorticity
advection ahead of an upper level trough pushing eastward through
the eastern Great Lakes. This pattern will result in widespread
development of showers and storms, with hi-res models indicating
convective initiation across the western Adirondacks and Mohawk
Valley by early this afternoon. Storms will intensify and move
eastward into the Catskills and Hudson valley by mid to late
afternoon.

Thunderstorms could become severe with damaging wind the primary
threat. SBCAPE values around 1000-1500 J/Kg will provide enough
buoyancy to maintain persistent multicells given increasing deep
layer shear of 30-40 kt. Mitigating factor to large hail will be
relatively weak mid level lapse rates around 6 deg/km and `thin`
CAPE profile aloft. However, forecast sounding profiles also
showing potential for heavy rainfall within storms, which could
result in isolated flash flooding. See hydro section for details.

Showers and storms will move into western New England during the
evening, and should tend to weaken but still may produce gusty
winds and downpours.

High temps expected to reach the upper 70s to lower 80s in most
locations, but will drop into the 60s during any persistent
showers or storms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The cold front will continue to move eastward across the Hudson
valley eastward into western New England this evening and
overnight. Will continue to mention likely showers and
thunderstorms for these areas, gradually tapering off from west to
east. The cold front should clear eastern portions of the area by
sunrise Wednesday.

There will still be a threat of isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms on Wednesday, as the upper level trough axis is
forecast to be positioned just to our west. Some of the storms
could be strong during the afternoon mainly for areas north and
east of the Hudson Valley depending on how much instability
develops ahead of the trough. The highest dewpoints will likely be
displaced to our east across central/eastern New England, but
lapse rates will be steepening due to the trough moving through.

Chances for leftover showers/storms should end Wednesday evening
as the trough shifts eastward into eastern New England. High
pressure will then build eastward from the Midwest and Great
Lakes, providing dry conditions and comfortably low humidity
levels with seasonable temperatures Wednesday night into Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Not much change from the previous long term forecast package as a
rather persistent northwest flow regime will reestablish itself
heading into the holiday weekend.

We begin the period with a surface ridge and southwest flow regime
aloft with warm and a bit humid conditions ahead of a cold front
approaching the Great Lakes region.  Global models are in good
agreement with the synoptic pattern as we will retain the chance for
showers and thunderstorms in the forecast heading into Friday.

The passage of the cold front will usher in a bit cooler but
noticeably drier air mass for the weekend with mainly dry conditions.
There are some hints of a weak wave moving southeast toward the St
Lawrence Valley and Adirondack Park on Sunday where we will place a
slight chance wording.

Highs will generally range between 75-85F and overnight lows mainly
into the 50s.

A quick look into Independence Holiday forecast, dry and seasonable
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR-IFR conditions are expected through the early morning mainly
due to ceilings. These conditions are expected to improve to VFR
after sunrise as the atmosphere mixes. Convection will develop
across the area impacting the TAFs sites this afternoon into the
evening as cold front approaches and gradually crosses the area.

Guidance indicates convection should initiated by afternoon across
the western Adirondacks and western Mohawk Valley with the storms
moving eastward across the area through the afternoon hours into
the evening. Have included a TEMPO group for thunderstorms with
MVFR conditions in each TAF. Brief IFR conditions can be expected
with the some storms but don`t have the confidence for timing to
include in TAFs. Some of the thunderstorms may become strong to
severe. Aloft an approaching short-wave will be rotating through
the base of the upper trough as the cold front approaches and
this will occur during the peak heating of the day. With dew
points in the 60s the airmass will become quite unstable. The
primary threat will be strong to damaging winds gusts.

Widespread MVFR condition are expected to develop for the overnight
in the wake of the convection.

Overall winds will be southerly through the TAF period; 06Z/Wednesday.
At KALB, gusts into the teens are expected during the afternoon.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA.
Wednesday Night-Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A cold front will slowly move across our region this afternoon
and tonight, resulting in widespread showers and thunderstorms.
Some storms may be severe with damaging winds and heavy rainfall.
A disturbance will move through on Wednesday with a few more
showers and thunderstorms. High pressure will then build into the
region Wednesday night into Thursday, bringing dry weather.

Minimum relative humidity values this afternoon are expected to
be around 55 to 65 percent. RH values will then increase to
between 85 and 100 percent tonight. Minimum RH values on Wednesday
will be around 40 to 55 percent.

Winds today will be southerly around 5 to 10 mph, becoming
westerly tonight around 5 mph. Winds on Wednesday will be
northwest at 5 to 10 mph.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydro problems are expected over the next 5 days.
Showers and thunderstorms are likely across the region this
afternoon and tonight, ahead of and along a slow moving cold
front. Basin average rainfall will be around a half inch to an
inch, however locally heavy rainfall could result in isolated
amounts near or exceeding two inches. Ponding of water will occur
within thunderstorms, and even isolated flash flooding is possible
within persistent slow moving downpours. Antecedent conditions are
very dry though, so widespread hydro issues are not expected.

A few lingering showers and thunderstorms are possible Wednesday
with light qpf amounts.

Dry weather will return by Thursday, with high pressure moving
back in across the region.

The latest drought monitor now has most of our region labeled
`Abnormally Dry` (D0). In fact, over the past 30 days, most of our
region is approximately 1-3 inches below normal in terms of
rainfall.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...NAS/JPV




000
FXUS61 KBOX 280734
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
332 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

A slow moving cold front will bring scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms into Wednesday, with the bulk of the activity
occurring tonight. Dry and seasonable weather follows Thursday
before the next front brings the risk for a few
showers/thunderstorms late Friday and/or Saturday, but the majority
of this time will be dry. Dry and pleasant weather with low
humidity appears to be in the cards Sunday into Monday the 4th of
July.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

Scattered showers were on going early this morning. This hit and
miss activity was the result of a shortwave and a burst of some
marginal elevated instability, with the main focus for this activity
to the northwest of Boston to Providence line.

The bulk of these scattered showers should come to an end by mid to
late morning, as shortwave departs.  While warm advection will
continue to result in the risk for a few spot showers, dry weather
will dominate the rest of today with bulk of forcing/instability
well to our northwest ahead of a cold front. Deep low level moisture
will also result in considerable cloudiness at times, but still
expect peeks of sunshine especially across southeast New England.

High temps will mainly be in the upper 70s to lower 80s, but a few
locales may reach into the middle 80s.  It will also feel somewhat
humid outside with dewpoints well into the 60s, something we have
not seen much of so far this month.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...

***Scattered showers/thunderstorms with brief localized heavy
rainfall possible between 9 pm tonight and 5 am Wednesday morning
but severe weather threat is rather low***

Tonight...

Showers and thunderstorms will be on going across Eastern NY early
this evening.  This activity will attempt to work into western
MA/Northern CT by mid to late evening, but should weaken with
diminishing instability/poor mid level lapse rates.  Still may see
some thunder and brief locally heavy rainfall in these locations.
Greater threat for scattered showers/thunderstorms with brief
locally heavy rainfall may set up across Eastern MA/Eastern CT and
RI near or after midnight. This on the nose of a 30 to 40 knot
southerly low level jet, MUcapes between 200 and 500 J/kg, and PWATS
between 1.5 and 2 inches. Guidance not completely sold on where and
if this sets up, but given the above parameters certainly a
possibility.  Severe weather threat looks rather low given limited
instability/timing. Bulk of the activity should be offshore near
daybreak.  Low temps will mainly be in the 60s and may see some
patchy fog develop.

Wednesday...

The actual surface cold front will sweep across the region on
Wednesday.  While the vast majority of the day will be dry, there is
a low risk for a few strong thunderstorms developing Wed afternoon
ahead of the front.  Whether or not this activity develops hinges on
if enough mid level moisture remains. While this is uncertain, the
highest risk is across Eastern MA/RI where moisture will be a bit
deeper.

We should see 1000+ j/kg of Cape develop across Eastern New England
ahead of the front along with 0 to 6 km shear values of 30 to 40
knots.  Colder air moving in aloft will result in somewhat steeper
mid level lapse rates, but nothing too extreme.

The above parameters are supportive for the possibility of a few
strong thunderstorms Wed afternoon.  However, mid levels of the
atmosphere will be drying out and may limit or prevent convection.
So in a nutshell, there is a low risk for a few strong thunderstorms
Wednesday afternoon with an isolated strong wind/hail threat if dry
mid level air can be overcome. Highest risk across Eastern MA/RI
between noon and 6 pm.

High temps should generally reach into the lower to middle 80s away
from the immediate coast.  Still somewhat humid with dewpoints in
the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

Highlights...

  * Seasonable Thursday and Friday.
  * Another risk for showers and storms, late friday and the
    weekend.

Overview and model preferences...
PNA remains strongly positive through much of the long term with
negative EPO. Therefore, the reflection across the CONUS remains
nearly unchanged through the period. This is also partially thanks
to a rex-type block with PACNW vortex leading to building ridge
across the northern prairies, culminating in persistent longwave
trof across the northeast. An initial shortwave will be exiting
Wed along with an attendant cold front leading to a brief period
of weak ridging until secondary shortwave from Hudson Bay
reinforces the longwave trof by late in the week. This trof does
take on a slight negative tilt suggesting a slightly stronger
system, however the bulk of the jet forcing shifts into the Boreal
forest regions of Canada. Therefore, the generally dry with only a
risk for spot showers/storms are expected to continue through this
long term cycle. Deterministic guidance is generally in good
enough agreement that a blend should still work fine as a starting
point.

Details...

Thu...
Dry wx prevails under weak ridging with front settling offshore.
H85 temps still near +12C, so another day with highs in the 80s
and lows dropping back into the upper 50s and low 60s is expected.

Fri into Sun...
More significant differences here between available guidance,
including the ensembles. Cold front will sweep through the region
connected to low pres moving across ON/QC. Best forcing remains N,
however decreased stability coincident with increase in PWATs back
to nearly 1.5 inches suggest increasing risk for diurnally driven
shra/tstorms. How quickly and ultimately how far the front moves
offshore will define how long into Saturday this risk lasts.
Secondary frontal wave development also possible, with the ECMWF
leading the charge for Sun, suggesting some rain across the region
from the S. Will maintain a low risk, but with settling trof, it
may remain far enough offshore for little impact. Either case, a
relatively unsettled period.

Early next week...
Another round of weak ridging within the longwave trof suggests a
return to dry wx and seasonable temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Wednesday/...

Today...Moderate confidence.  MVFR conditions in low clouds to the
northwest of a Boston to Providence line will probably improve to
mainly VFR by afternoon.  Bulk of scattered showers should also come
to an end by mid to late morning. Otherwise, mainly VFR conditions
expected the rest of the day.

Tonight...Moderate confidence.  Conditions lower to MVFR-IFR
thresholds as boundary layer cools with an abundance of low level
moisture.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms also expected with
main risk between 1z and 9z.

Wednesday...Moderate to high confidence.  MVFR-IFR conditions should
improve to mainly VFR by afternoon as low clouds/fog patches
dissipate.  Low risk for a few strong thunderstorms Wed afternoon,
mainly Eastern MA/RI.

KBOS TAF...Moderate to high confidence in TAF.

KBDL TAF...Moderate confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Wednesday Night through Saturday/...

Thursday-Saturday...Moderate confidence

VFR. North winds become variable Thursday, then from the south
Friday.  Showers/tstms will develop over New York State, and may
move into Southern New England Friday evening and night. These
showers and storms would have areas of MVFR cigs/vsbys.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Wednesday/...High confidence.

Winds and seas will generally remain below small craft advisory
thresholds through Wednesday afternoon. South to southwest wind
gusts of 20 knots are expected at times with 2 to 4 foot seas across
the open waters.  Main concern is for areas of fog tonight into Wed
am across the southern waters.  May also see a few thunderstorms
with brief heavy rain overnight.

Outlook /Wednesday Night through Saturday/...

Thursday-Saturday...Moderate confidence.

High pressure builds over the waters Thursday and moves off to the
east Friday.  A cold front approaches from the west Friday night.
Winds and seas should remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria.
Scattered showers/thunderstorms possible Friday night as the cold
front approaches.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Frank
NEAR TERM...Frank
SHORT TERM...Frank
LONG TERM...Doody
AVIATION...Frank/Doody
MARINE...Frank/Doody




000
FXUS61 KALY 280551
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
151 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak warm front will exit New England overnight. A cold front
move through our region Tuesday afternoon and night. Showers and
thunderstorms are expected Tuesday and Tuesday night. High pressure
will build east from the Midwest Wednesday, and bring dry weather
through the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 1254 AM EDT...Main change with this update was to raise
pops across a limited area of southeast Dutchess and much of
Litchfield county, as some slow moving showers will persist there
for the next few hours. Otherwise, the rest of the area should be
dry tonight due to limited forcing. Increased cloud cover as well,
as areas of stratus clouds have developed in parts of the region.
It will be a mild and muggy night with low temps and dewpoints in
the 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Upper energy north of the Great Lakes and the associated cold
front making steady progress east and an axis of instability ahead
of the cold front. Some sun is expected at least in western areas
Tuesday morning...and how far east sees some sun depends on how
the band of clouds over us evolves through the night. Once we
reach convective temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s...most
areas should see more clouds than sun by midday...with showers and
thunderstorms developing over central NY..then tracking through
eastern NY and Western New England in the afternoon through the
evening.

There is a good consensus in guidance that an axis of decent
instability sets up ahead of the cold front...mainly due to
relatively high surface dew points and not so much due to hot
surface temperatures. However...the high dew points over the Great
Lakes to western New York at model initialization time this
morning have mixed out to lower levels this afternoon.
So...surface dew points tomorrow will have a big influence on
severe weather potential...and will make the difference between
700-1000 j/kg CAPES and 1000-2000 j/kg CAPES.

There is a slight risk of severe weather...and as long as dew
points rise and translate into decent instability...initial
thunderstorm updrafts will pulse up strongly...with potential
marginal severe hail and winds. As thunderstorms track east...new
updrafts will again pulse up from time to time with the potential
for brief scattered marginally severe hail and winds.

The low level shear and upper jet/upper dynamics are relatively
weak but there is a decent boundary layer thermal gradient along
the cold front for some frontogenetic convergence. So...putting
the possibility for small hail and gusty winds into the forecast
Tuesday afternoon and evening. There could be some locally heavy
rain...with the relatively weak steering flow...if storms can
train. It has been a bit dry in our region...so any flash flood
threat is very low but will just have to keep an eye out for
training thunderstorms for some localized nuisance ponding of
water in some areas. Highs Tuesday in the mid 70s to lower 80s.

Lingering shower activity Tuesday night as winds shift to west and
northwest and by daybreak Wednesday...any isolated showers should
be over eastern NY and New England. The isolated showers supported
by lagging upper energy should exit through the afternoon...with
improving sky cover through the day in all areas. Highs Wednesday
in the mid 70s to lower 80s. Much more sun and dryer weather
Thursday with highs in the lower to mid 80s...but mid to upper
70s in higher terrain.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Not much change from the previous long term forecast package as a
rather persistent northwest flow regime will reestablish itself
heading into the holiday weekend.

We begin the period with a surface ridge and southwest flow regime
aloft with warm and a bit humid conditions ahead of a cold front
approaching the Great Lakes region.  Global models are in good
agreement with the synoptic pattern as we will retain the chance for
showers and thunderstorms in the forecast heading into Friday.

The passage of the cold front will usher in a bit cooler but
noticeably drier air mass for the weekend with mainly dry conditions.
There are some hints of a weak wave moving southeast toward the St
Lawrence Valley and Adirondack Park on Sunday where we will place a
slight chance wording.

Highs will generally range between 75-85F and overnight lows mainly
into the 50s.

A quick look into Independence Holiday forecast, dry and seasonable
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR-IFR conditions are expected through the early morning mainly
due to ceilings. These conditions are expected to improve to VFR
after sunrise as the atmosphere mixes. Convection will develop
across the area impacting the TAFs sites this afternoon into the
evening as cold front approaches and gradually crosses the area.

Guidance indicates convection should initiated by afternoon across
the western Adirondacks and western Mohawk Valley with the storms
moving eastward across the area through the afternoon hours into
the evening. Have included a TEMPO group for thunderstorms with
MVFR conditions in each TAF. Brief IFR conditions can be expected
with the some storms but don`t have the confidence for timing to
include in TAFs. Some of the thunderstorms may become strong to
severe. Aloft an approaching short-wave will be rotating through
the base of the upper trough as the cold front approaches and
this will occur during the peak heating of the day. With dew
points in the 60s the airmass will become quite unstable. The
primary threat will be strong to damaging winds gusts.

Widespread MVFR condition are expected to develop for the overnight
in the wake of the convection.

Overall winds will be southerly through the TAF period; 06Z/Wednesday.
At KALB, gusts into the teens are expected during the afternoon.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA.
Wednesday Night-Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A weak front will exit the region tonight. A stronger cold front
will track through our region Tuesday afternoon and night.
Isolated showers are expected tonight with more widespread showers
and thunderstorms Tuesday and Tuesday night. High pressure will
then build in from the Midwest through the day Wednesday, with dry
weather returning through the end of the week.

RH will then increase to between 80 and 100 percent tonight.
Minimum RH values on Tuesday will be around 50 to 65
percent...then near 100 percent with scattered thunderstorms later
Tuesday afternoon evening. Minimum RH values on Wednesday around
45 to 60 percent.

Southerly winds will be 15 mph or less tonight. Winds on Tuesday
will be south-southwest at 15 mph or less. Winds will shift to
west and northwest by Wednesday at around 15 mph.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydro problems are expected over the next 5 days.
There will be showers and thunderstorms across the region on
Tuesday, ahead of and along a cold front. Rainfall totals could
reach one third to three quarters of an inch, with some isolated
higher amounts. Ponding of water will occur within any persistent
thunderstorms. A few lingering showers are possible Wednesday with
light rainfall amounts.

Dry weather will return by Thursday, with high pressure moving
back in across the region.

The latest drought monitor now has most of our region labeled
`Abnormally Dry` (D0). In fact, over the past 30 days, most of our
region is approximately 1-3 inches below normal in terms of
rainfall.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Snyder
NEAR TERM...Snyder/JPV
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS




000
FXUS61 KALY 280551
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
151 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak warm front will exit New England overnight. A cold front
move through our region Tuesday afternoon and night. Showers and
thunderstorms are expected Tuesday and Tuesday night. High pressure
will build east from the Midwest Wednesday, and bring dry weather
through the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 1254 AM EDT...Main change with this update was to raise
pops across a limited area of southeast Dutchess and much of
Litchfield county, as some slow moving showers will persist there
for the next few hours. Otherwise, the rest of the area should be
dry tonight due to limited forcing. Increased cloud cover as well,
as areas of stratus clouds have developed in parts of the region.
It will be a mild and muggy night with low temps and dewpoints in
the 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Upper energy north of the Great Lakes and the associated cold
front making steady progress east and an axis of instability ahead
of the cold front. Some sun is expected at least in western areas
Tuesday morning...and how far east sees some sun depends on how
the band of clouds over us evolves through the night. Once we
reach convective temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s...most
areas should see more clouds than sun by midday...with showers and
thunderstorms developing over central NY..then tracking through
eastern NY and Western New England in the afternoon through the
evening.

There is a good consensus in guidance that an axis of decent
instability sets up ahead of the cold front...mainly due to
relatively high surface dew points and not so much due to hot
surface temperatures. However...the high dew points over the Great
Lakes to western New York at model initialization time this
morning have mixed out to lower levels this afternoon.
So...surface dew points tomorrow will have a big influence on
severe weather potential...and will make the difference between
700-1000 j/kg CAPES and 1000-2000 j/kg CAPES.

There is a slight risk of severe weather...and as long as dew
points rise and translate into decent instability...initial
thunderstorm updrafts will pulse up strongly...with potential
marginal severe hail and winds. As thunderstorms track east...new
updrafts will again pulse up from time to time with the potential
for brief scattered marginally severe hail and winds.

The low level shear and upper jet/upper dynamics are relatively
weak but there is a decent boundary layer thermal gradient along
the cold front for some frontogenetic convergence. So...putting
the possibility for small hail and gusty winds into the forecast
Tuesday afternoon and evening. There could be some locally heavy
rain...with the relatively weak steering flow...if storms can
train. It has been a bit dry in our region...so any flash flood
threat is very low but will just have to keep an eye out for
training thunderstorms for some localized nuisance ponding of
water in some areas. Highs Tuesday in the mid 70s to lower 80s.

Lingering shower activity Tuesday night as winds shift to west and
northwest and by daybreak Wednesday...any isolated showers should
be over eastern NY and New England. The isolated showers supported
by lagging upper energy should exit through the afternoon...with
improving sky cover through the day in all areas. Highs Wednesday
in the mid 70s to lower 80s. Much more sun and dryer weather
Thursday with highs in the lower to mid 80s...but mid to upper
70s in higher terrain.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Not much change from the previous long term forecast package as a
rather persistent northwest flow regime will reestablish itself
heading into the holiday weekend.

We begin the period with a surface ridge and southwest flow regime
aloft with warm and a bit humid conditions ahead of a cold front
approaching the Great Lakes region.  Global models are in good
agreement with the synoptic pattern as we will retain the chance for
showers and thunderstorms in the forecast heading into Friday.

The passage of the cold front will usher in a bit cooler but
noticeably drier air mass for the weekend with mainly dry conditions.
There are some hints of a weak wave moving southeast toward the St
Lawrence Valley and Adirondack Park on Sunday where we will place a
slight chance wording.

Highs will generally range between 75-85F and overnight lows mainly
into the 50s.

A quick look into Independence Holiday forecast, dry and seasonable
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR-IFR conditions are expected through the early morning mainly
due to ceilings. These conditions are expected to improve to VFR
after sunrise as the atmosphere mixes. Convection will develop
across the area impacting the TAFs sites this afternoon into the
evening as cold front approaches and gradually crosses the area.

Guidance indicates convection should initiated by afternoon across
the western Adirondacks and western Mohawk Valley with the storms
moving eastward across the area through the afternoon hours into
the evening. Have included a TEMPO group for thunderstorms with
MVFR conditions in each TAF. Brief IFR conditions can be expected
with the some storms but don`t have the confidence for timing to
include in TAFs. Some of the thunderstorms may become strong to
severe. Aloft an approaching short-wave will be rotating through
the base of the upper trough as the cold front approaches and
this will occur during the peak heating of the day. With dew
points in the 60s the airmass will become quite unstable. The
primary threat will be strong to damaging winds gusts.

Widespread MVFR condition are expected to develop for the overnight
in the wake of the convection.

Overall winds will be southerly through the TAF period; 06Z/Wednesday.
At KALB, gusts into the teens are expected during the afternoon.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA.
Wednesday Night-Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A weak front will exit the region tonight. A stronger cold front
will track through our region Tuesday afternoon and night.
Isolated showers are expected tonight with more widespread showers
and thunderstorms Tuesday and Tuesday night. High pressure will
then build in from the Midwest through the day Wednesday, with dry
weather returning through the end of the week.

RH will then increase to between 80 and 100 percent tonight.
Minimum RH values on Tuesday will be around 50 to 65
percent...then near 100 percent with scattered thunderstorms later
Tuesday afternoon evening. Minimum RH values on Wednesday around
45 to 60 percent.

Southerly winds will be 15 mph or less tonight. Winds on Tuesday
will be south-southwest at 15 mph or less. Winds will shift to
west and northwest by Wednesday at around 15 mph.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydro problems are expected over the next 5 days.
There will be showers and thunderstorms across the region on
Tuesday, ahead of and along a cold front. Rainfall totals could
reach one third to three quarters of an inch, with some isolated
higher amounts. Ponding of water will occur within any persistent
thunderstorms. A few lingering showers are possible Wednesday with
light rainfall amounts.

Dry weather will return by Thursday, with high pressure moving
back in across the region.

The latest drought monitor now has most of our region labeled
`Abnormally Dry` (D0). In fact, over the past 30 days, most of our
region is approximately 1-3 inches below normal in terms of
rainfall.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Snyder
NEAR TERM...Snyder/JPV
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS




000
FXUS61 KOKX 280542
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
142 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak trough moves across the region tonight. A cold front
approaches Tuesday and moves into the area Tuesday night, and
through the area Wednesday. The front moves farther offshore
Wednesday night. Weak high pressure returns for Thursday through
Friday. Another cold front then approaches and passes through late
Friday night into Saturday. High pressure builds in behind the
front Sunday and Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A band of light to moderate rain across the NYC Metro will move
very slowly east and expand eastward based on near term forecast
model trends.

Amounts up to 1/3 of an inch have already occurred in Linden NJ with
hourly maximum rates approaching 1/4 inch.

With abundant low level moisture in place and increasing low
level convergence and weak instability, the POPs were increased to
likely across the region with QPF ranging from 1/4 to 1/2 inch.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
The longwave upper trough continues to dig into the eastern states
Tuesday and Tuesday night with additional energy rotating through
the trough. By 12Z Wednesday the trough axis still remains to the
west, through the eastern Great Lakes and into the Ohio Valley.
Gulf of Mexico moisture is drawn up into the area through the
period with increasing low and mid level moisture. A more stable
marine layer remains in place and will limit the threat of
thunderstorms. However, inland instability increases Tuesday
afternoon and into the evening. Cape will be limited, however, a
few stronger thunderstorms will be possible, especially across the
lower Hudson Valley. The storm prediction center has a slight risk
area into portions of Orange county, but will not mention any
enhanced wording at this time as the better chances for the
stronger storms will be to the west.

There is a moderate risk for the development of rip currents at
Atlantic Ocean beaches.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
The cold front will likely be over the eastern zones Wednesday
morning. It will slowly push offshore through the day as it
dissipates. Its eastward progression could be slowed down by a weak
wave of low pressure attempting to form along the front. Thinking is
that chances of showers and thunderstorms will be primarily over the
eastern zones during the morning. Then in the afternoon and early
evening, PVA and destabilization could bring a shower or storm to
the rest of the forecast area.

High pressure brings dry weather on Thursday and Thursday night. For
Friday, a pre-frontal trough brings low chances of showers and
storms. The trailing cold front moves in Friday night, when
overall better chances occur.

It appears that this cold front will be slow to push offshore, so
low chances of showers and storms have been left in for eastern
sections Saturday morning. The front eventually sags to the south as
the upper flow aloft becomes more cyclonic Saturday night into
Sunday. ECMWF, which has been a northern outlier with a wave of low
pressure forming along the front, has trended farther south/drier
with this feature and associated precipitation. Will still leave in a
slight chance for the southern zones for this period until
confidence in dry weather increases further. High pressure otherwise
builds in from the northwest on Monday with dry conditions.

Temperatures through the long term period will be generally near
normal.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A weak trough of low pressure will pass through the region through
the early morning hours. A cold front then approaches later today
and passes through the region late tonight through Wednesday
morning.

S/SE winds 5-10 KT will increase to 10-15 KT later today. If
breaks of sunshine develop, winds for coastal terminals could be
around 5 kt stronger than forecast, with gusts 20 to 25 kt.

MVFR/IFR conditions in rain/fog for the early morning hours. Rain
shield slowly working its way through KNYC terminals, and them
more showers develop towards daybreak.

Widespread fog/stratus likely on tap for most areas through the
afternoon with IFR/MVFR conditions.

Cold front approaches late in the day. SHRA/TSRA will develop
north and west of KNYC terminals and track east. Will carry PROB30
groups for KNYC and interior terminals. Not confident enough in
TSRA development for LI/SE CT.

Widespread fog/stratus will develop late tonight with IFR
conditions.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.Tonight...MVFR and IFR/lower (coastal terminals) conditions
likely in showers/isolated tstms and/or low clouds/fog.

.Wednesday...MVFR and IFR/lower (coastal terminals) conditions
possible via morning fog/low clouds and showers/isolated tstms.

.Wednesday afternoon through Friday morning...VFR.

.Friday night...MVFR or IFR conditions possible in showers/tstms.

.Saturday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A weak surface trough moves through the waters tonight with the
chance of scattered showers. A cold front approaches Tuesday and
moves into the waters Tuesday night and east Wednesday. Southerly
winds will precede the cold frontal passage and occasional gusts
on the ocean waters may approach small craft levels into early
this evening and Tuesday, especially west of Fire Island Inlet.
Otherwise winds and seas will remain below advisory levels tonight
through Tuesday night.

The pressure gradient is expected to remain rather weak through the
rest of the forecast period. As such, expect seas and winds to
remain below small craft advisory thresholds.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Widespread significant rainfall is not anticipated through
the period. However, scattered showers and thunderstorms may
produce locally heavy downpours Tuesday night through Wednesday.
This could result in minor nuisance flooding.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MET
NEAR TERM...GC
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...JC/MET
HYDROLOGY...JC/MET




000
FXUS61 KALY 280454
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
1254 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak warm front will exit New England overnight. A cold front
move through our region Tuesday afternoon and night. Showers and
thunderstorms are expected Tuesday and Tuesday night. High pressure
will build east from the Midwest Wednesday, and bring dry weather
through the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 1254 AM EDT...Main change with this update was to raise
pops across a limited area of southeast Dutchess and much of
Litchfield county, as some slow moving showers will persist there
for the next few hours. Otherwise, the rest of the area should be
dry tonight due to limited forcing. Increased cloud cover as well,
as areas of stratus clouds have developed in parts of the region.
It will be a mild and muggy night with low temps and dewpoints in
the 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Upper energy north of the Great Lakes and the associated cold
front making steady progress east and an axis of instability ahead
of the cold front. Some sun is expected at least in western areas
Tuesday morning...and how far east sees some sun depends on how
the band of clouds over us evolves through the night. Once we
reach convective temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s...most
areas should see more clouds than sun by midday...with showers and
thunderstorms developing over central NY..then tracking through
eastern NY and Western New England in the afternoon through the
evening.

There is a good consensus in guidance that an axis of decent
instability sets up ahead of the cold front...mainly due to
relatively high surface dew points and not so much due to hot
surface temperatures. However...the high dew points over the Great
Lakes to western New York at model initialization time this
morning have mixed out to lower levels this afternoon.
So...surface dew points tomorrow will have a big influence on
severe weather potential...and will make the difference between
700-1000 j/kg CAPES and 1000-2000 j/kg CAPES.

There is a slight risk of severe weather...and as long as dew
points rise and translate into decent instability...initial
thunderstorm updrafts will pulse up strongly...with potential
marginal severe hail and winds. As thunderstorms track east...new
updrafts will again pulse up from time to time with the potential
for brief scattered marginally severe hail and winds.

The low level shear and upper jet/upper dynamics are relatively
weak but there is a decent boundary layer thermal gradient along
the cold front for some frontogenetic convergence. So...putting
the possibility for small hail and gusty winds into the forecast
Tuesday afternoon and evening. There could be some locally heavy
rain...with the relatively weak steering flow...if storms can
train. It has been a bit dry in our region...so any flash flood
threat is very low but will just have to keep an eye out for
training thunderstorms for some localized nuisance ponding of
water in some areas. Highs Tuesday in the mid 70s to lower 80s.

Lingering shower activity Tuesday night as winds shift to west and
northwest and by daybreak Wednesday...any isolated showers should
be over eastern NY and New England. The isolated showers supported
by lagging upper energy should exit through the afternoon...with
improving sky cover through the day in all areas. Highs Wednesday
in the mid 70s to lower 80s. Much more sun and dryer weather
Thursday with highs in the lower to mid 80s...but mid to upper
70s in higher terrain.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Not much change from the previous long term forecast package as a
rather persistent northwest flow regime will reestablish itself
heading into the holiday weekend.

We begin the period with a surface ridge and southwest flow regime
aloft with warm and a bit humid conditions ahead of a cold front
approaching the Great Lakes region.  Global models are in good
agreement with the synoptic pattern as we will retain the chance for
showers and thunderstorms in the forecast heading into Friday.

The passage of the cold front will usher in a bit cooler but
noticeably drier air mass for the weekend with mainly dry conditions.
There are some hints of a weak wave moving southeast toward the St
Lawrence Valley and Adirondack Park on Sunday where we will place a
slight chance wording.

Highs will generally range between 75-85F and overnight lows mainly
into the 50s.

A quick look into Independence Holiday forecast, dry and seasonable
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Showers have exited the region as the wmfnt that triggered them
is from Vt into the Catskills. Overnight, combination of rainfall
earlier along with incrg surface dewpoints into the 60s will lead
toward lower CIGS and VIS well into MVFR flight categories. Where breaks
in the clouds occur this evening and winds decouple, IFR conditions
will be possible with fog and/or low stratus.

Winds will generally be from the southerly direction 5 to 10 KTS
overnight in most areas.

Tuesday morning low clouds and fog will dissipate with conds bcmg
VFR in most areas with sct-bkn cu. Hwvr an approaching cdfnt will
trigger shra and tstms some of which could become quite strong in
the afternoon with MVFR conds. SPC has placed the area in a slight
risk of Severe thunderstorms Tuesday.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A weak front will exit the region tonight. A stronger cold front
will track through our region Tuesday afternoon and night.
Isolated showers are expected tonight with more widespread showers
and thunderstorms Tuesday and Tuesday night. High pressure will
then build in from the Midwest through the day Wednesday, with dry
weather returning through the end of the week.

RH will then increase to between 80 and 100 percent tonight.
Minimum RH values on Tuesday will be around 50 to 65
percent...then near 100 percent with scattered thunderstorms later
Tuesday afternoon evening. Minimum RH values on Wednesday around
45 to 60 percent.

Southerly winds will be 15 mph or less tonight. Winds on Tuesday
will be south-southwest at 15 mph or less. Winds will shift to
west and northwest by Wednesday at around 15 mph.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydro problems are expected over the next 5 days.
There will be showers and thunderstorms across the region on
Tuesday, ahead of and along a cold front. Rainfall totals could
reach one third to three quarters of an inch, with some isolated
higher amounts. Ponding of water will occur within any persistent
thunderstorms. A few lingering showers are possible Wednesday with
light rainfall amounts.

Dry weather will return by Thursday, with high pressure moving
back in across the region.

The latest drought monitor now has most of our region labeled
`Abnormally Dry` (D0). In fact, over the past 30 days, most of our
region is approximately 1-3 inches below normal in terms of
rainfall.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Snyder
NEAR TERM...Snyder/JPV
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...Snyder
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS




000
FXUS61 KOKX 280414
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1214 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak trough moves across the region tonight. A cold front
approaches Tuesday and moves into the area Tuesday night, and
through the area Wednesday. The front moves farther offshore
Wednesday night. Weak high pressure returns for Thursday through
Friday. Another cold front then approaches and passes through late
Friday night into Saturday. High pressure builds in behind the
front Sunday and Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A band of light to moderate rain across the NYC Metro will move
very slowly east and expand eastward based on near term forecast
model trends.

Amounts up to 1/3 of an inch have already occurred in Linden NJ with
hourly maximum rates approaching 1/4 inch.

With abundant low level moisture in place and increasing low
level convergence and weak instability, the POPs were increased to
likely across the region with QPF ranging from 1/4 to 1/2 inch.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
The longwave upper trough continues to dig into the eastern states
Tuesday and Tuesday night with additional energy rotating through
the trough. By 12Z Wednesday the trough axis still remains to the
west, through the eastern Great Lakes and into the Ohio Valley.
Gulf of Mexico moisture is drawn up into the area through the
period with increasing low and mid level moisture. A more stable
marine layer remains in place and will limit the threat of
thunderstorms. However, inland instability increases Tuesday
afternoon and into the evening. Cape will be limited, however, a
few stronger thunderstorms will be possible, especially across the
lower Hudson Valley. The storm prediction center has a slight risk
area into portions of Orange county, but will not mention any
enhanced wording at this time as the better chances for the
stronger storms will be to the west.

There is a moderate risk for the development of rip currents at
Atlantic Ocean beaches.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
The cold front will likely be over the eastern zones Wednesday
morning. It will slowly push offshore through the day as it
dissipates. Its eastward progression could be slowed down by a weak
wave of low pressure attempting to form along the front. Thinking is
that chances of showers and thunderstorms will be primarily over the
eastern zones during the morning. Then in the afternoon and early
evening, PVA and destabilization could bring a shower or storm to
the rest of the forecast area.

High pressure brings dry weather on Thursday and Thursday night. For
Friday, a pre-frontal trough brings low chances of showers and
storms. The trailing cold front moves in Friday night, when
overall better chances occur.

It appears that this cold front will be slow to push offshore, so
low chances of showers and storms have been left in for eastern
sections Saturday morning. The front eventually sags to the south as
the upper flow aloft becomes more cyclonic Saturday night into
Sunday. ECMWF, which has been a northern outlier with a wave of low
pressure forming along the front, has trended farther south/drier
with this feature and associated precipitation. Will still leave in a
slight chance for the southern zones for this period until
confidence in dry weather increases further. High pressure otherwise
builds in from the northwest on Monday with dry conditions.

Temperatures through the long term period will be generally near
normal.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A weak low pressure trough will approach tonight, then a cold
front will approach on Tuesday...crossing Tuesday night into
Wednesday.

S/SE winds weaken to around 5 to 10 kt overnight...increasing to
10 to 15 kt Tue afternoon. If breaks of sunshine develop winds for
coastal terminals could be around 5 kt stronger than
forecast...with gusts 20 to 25 kt.

Sct to Bkn mvfr cigs developing under weakening rain band across
NYC/NJ metro terminals late this evening. Latest trend is for
MVFR/IFR cigs to develop more gradually overnight into early Tue
morning. Although dewpoints are creeping well into the 60s...with
no signs of upstream stratus development...have nudged timing of
stratus development a few hours slower. Highest likelihood for
IFR development across eastern terminals.

On Tuesday...IFR likely...possibly LIFR...across eastern
terminals through the day. Potential for KJFK/KLGA/KHPN to remain
IFR for much if not all day. For terminals to the north/west of
NYC...improvement to mvfr likely in the afternoon. Some breaks of
vfr possible across NYC metro and north and west terminals in the
afternoon.

Low chance of a thunderstorm in the late afternoon/evening for
NYC/NJ metro terminals and terminals to the north/west.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.Tuesday night...MVFR and IFR/lower (coastal terminals)
conditions likely in showers/isolated tstms and/or low clouds/fog.

.Wednesday...MVFR and IFR/lower (coastal terminals) conditions
possible via morning fog/low clouds and showers/isolated tstms.

.Wednesday afternoon through Friday morning...VFR.

.Friday night...MVFR or IFR conditions possible in showers/tstms.

.Saturday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A weak surface trough moves through the waters tonight with the
chance of scattered showers. A cold front approaches Tuesday and
moves into the waters Tuesday night and east Wednesday. Southerly
winds will precede the cold frontal passage and occasional gusts
on the ocean waters may approach small craft levels into early
this evening and Tuesday, especially west of Fire Island Inlet.
Otherwise winds and seas will remain below advisory levels tonight
through Tuesday night.

The pressure gradient is expected to remain rather weak through the
rest of the forecast period. As such, expect seas and winds to
remain below small craft advisory thresholds.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Widespread significant rainfall is not anticipated through
the period. However, scattered showers and thunderstorms may
produce locally heavy downpours Tuesday night through Wednesday.
This could result in minor nuisance flooding.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MET
NEAR TERM...GC
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...JC/MET
HYDROLOGY...JC/MET




000
FXUS61 KOKX 280311
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1111 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak trough moves across the region tonight. A cold front
approaches Tuesday and moves into the area Tuesday night, and
through the area Wednesday. The front moves farther offshore
Wednesday night. Weak high pressure returns for Thursday through
Friday. Another cold front then approaches and passes through late
Friday night into Saturday. High pressure builds in behind the
front Sunday and Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Showers continue to fall as of 9 pm across approximately the
western half of the county warning area. The rain had tapered off
however across most of Orange county. The 18Z models do show the
rain chances continuing and even slowly expanding eastward
overnight. With this scenario being supported by the current radar
data, the forecast has been adjusted accordingly.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The longwave upper trough continues to dig into the eastern states
Tuesday and Tuesday night with additional energy rotating through
the trough. By 12Z Wednesday the trough axis still remains to the
west, through the eastern Great Lakes and into the Ohio Valley.
Gulf of Mexico moisture is drawn up into the area through the
period with increasing low and mid level moisture. A more stable
marine layer remains in place and will limit the threat of
thunderstorms. However, inland instability increases Tuesday
afternoon and into the evening. Cape will be limited, however, a
few stronger thunderstorms will be possible, especially across the
lower Hudson Valley. The storm prediction center has a slight risk
area into portions of Orange county, but will not mention any
enhanced wording at this time as the better chances for the
stronger storms will be to the west.

There is a moderate risk for the development of rip currents at
Atlantic Ocean beaches.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The cold front will likely be over the eastern zones Wednesday
morning. It will slowly push offshore through the day as it
dissipates. Its eastward progression could be slowed down by a weak
wave of low pressure attempting to form along the front. Thinking is
that chances of showers and thunderstorms will be primarily over the
eastern zones during the morning. Then in the afternoon and early
evening, PVA and destabilization could bring a shower or storm to
the rest of the forecast area.

High pressure brings dry weather on Thursday and Thursday night. For
Friday, a pre-frontal trough brings low chances of showers and
storms. The trailing cold front moves in Friday night, when
overall better chances occur.

It appears that this cold front will be slow to push offshore, so
low chances of showers and storms have been left in for eastern
sections Saturday morning. The front eventually sags to the south as
the upper flow aloft becomes more cyclonic Saturday night into
Sunday. ECMWF, which has been a northern outlier with a wave of low
pressure forming along the front, has trended farther south/drier
with this feature and associated precipitation. Will still leave in a
slight chance for the southern zones for this period until
confidence in dry weather increases further. High pressure otherwise
builds in from the northwest on Monday with dry conditions.

Temperatures through the long term period will be generally near
normal.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A weak low pressure trough will approach tonight, then a cold
front will approach on Tuesday...crossing Tuesday night into
Wednesday.

S/SE winds weaken to around 5 to 10 kt overnight...increasing to
10 to 15 kt Tue afternoon. If breaks of sunshine develop winds for
coastal terminals could be around 5 kt stronger than
forecast...with gusts 20 to 25 kt.

Sct to Bkn mvfr cigs developing under weakening rain band across
NYC/NJ metro terminals late this evening. Latest trend is for
MVFR/IFR cigs to develop more gradually overnight into early Tue
morning. Although dewpoints are creeping well into the 60s...with
no signs of upstream stratus development...have nudged timing of
stratus development a few hours slower. Highest likelihood for
IFR development across eastern terminals.

On Tuesday...IFR likely...possibly LIFR...across eastern
terminals through the day. Potential for KJFK/KLGA/KHPN to remain
IFR for much if not all day. For terminals to the north/west of
NYC...improvement to mvfr likely in the afternoon. Some breaks of
vfr possible across NYC metro and north and west terminals in the
afternoon.

Low chance of a thunderstorm in the late afternoon/evening for
NYC/NJ metro terminals and terminals to the north/west.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.Tuesday night...MVFR and IFR/lower (coastal terminals)
conditions likely in showers/isolated tstms and/or low clouds/fog.

.Wednesday...MVFR and IFR/lower (coastal terminals) conditions
possible via morning fog/low clouds and showers/isolated tstms.

.Wednesday afternoon through Friday morning...VFR.

.Friday night...MVFR or IFR conditions possible in showers/tstms.

.Saturday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A weak surface trough moves through the waters tonight with the
chance of scattered showers. A cold front approaches Tuesday and
moves into the waters Tuesday night and east Wednesday. Southerly
winds will precede the cold frontal passage and occasional gusts
on the ocean waters may approach small craft levels into early
this evening and Tuesday, especially west of Fire Island Inlet.
Otherwise winds and seas will remain below advisory levels tonight
through Tuesday night.

The pressure gradient is expected to remain rather weak through the
rest of the forecast period. As such, expect seas and winds to
remain below small craft advisory thresholds.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Widespread significant rainfall is not anticipated through
the period. However, scattered showers and thunderstorms may
produce locally heavy downpours Tuesday night through Wednesday.
This could result in minor nuisance flooding.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MET
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...JC/MET
HYDROLOGY...JC/MET




000
FXUS61 KOKX 280311
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1111 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak trough moves across the region tonight. A cold front
approaches Tuesday and moves into the area Tuesday night, and
through the area Wednesday. The front moves farther offshore
Wednesday night. Weak high pressure returns for Thursday through
Friday. Another cold front then approaches and passes through late
Friday night into Saturday. High pressure builds in behind the
front Sunday and Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Showers continue to fall as of 9 pm across approximately the
western half of the county warning area. The rain had tapered off
however across most of Orange county. The 18Z models do show the
rain chances continuing and even slowly expanding eastward
overnight. With this scenario being supported by the current radar
data, the forecast has been adjusted accordingly.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The longwave upper trough continues to dig into the eastern states
Tuesday and Tuesday night with additional energy rotating through
the trough. By 12Z Wednesday the trough axis still remains to the
west, through the eastern Great Lakes and into the Ohio Valley.
Gulf of Mexico moisture is drawn up into the area through the
period with increasing low and mid level moisture. A more stable
marine layer remains in place and will limit the threat of
thunderstorms. However, inland instability increases Tuesday
afternoon and into the evening. Cape will be limited, however, a
few stronger thunderstorms will be possible, especially across the
lower Hudson Valley. The storm prediction center has a slight risk
area into portions of Orange county, but will not mention any
enhanced wording at this time as the better chances for the
stronger storms will be to the west.

There is a moderate risk for the development of rip currents at
Atlantic Ocean beaches.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The cold front will likely be over the eastern zones Wednesday
morning. It will slowly push offshore through the day as it
dissipates. Its eastward progression could be slowed down by a weak
wave of low pressure attempting to form along the front. Thinking is
that chances of showers and thunderstorms will be primarily over the
eastern zones during the morning. Then in the afternoon and early
evening, PVA and destabilization could bring a shower or storm to
the rest of the forecast area.

High pressure brings dry weather on Thursday and Thursday night. For
Friday, a pre-frontal trough brings low chances of showers and
storms. The trailing cold front moves in Friday night, when
overall better chances occur.

It appears that this cold front will be slow to push offshore, so
low chances of showers and storms have been left in for eastern
sections Saturday morning. The front eventually sags to the south as
the upper flow aloft becomes more cyclonic Saturday night into
Sunday. ECMWF, which has been a northern outlier with a wave of low
pressure forming along the front, has trended farther south/drier
with this feature and associated precipitation. Will still leave in a
slight chance for the southern zones for this period until
confidence in dry weather increases further. High pressure otherwise
builds in from the northwest on Monday with dry conditions.

Temperatures through the long term period will be generally near
normal.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A weak low pressure trough will approach tonight, then a cold
front will approach on Tuesday...crossing Tuesday night into
Wednesday.

S/SE winds weaken to around 5 to 10 kt overnight...increasing to
10 to 15 kt Tue afternoon. If breaks of sunshine develop winds for
coastal terminals could be around 5 kt stronger than
forecast...with gusts 20 to 25 kt.

Sct to Bkn mvfr cigs developing under weakening rain band across
NYC/NJ metro terminals late this evening. Latest trend is for
MVFR/IFR cigs to develop more gradually overnight into early Tue
morning. Although dewpoints are creeping well into the 60s...with
no signs of upstream stratus development...have nudged timing of
stratus development a few hours slower. Highest likelihood for
IFR development across eastern terminals.

On Tuesday...IFR likely...possibly LIFR...across eastern
terminals through the day. Potential for KJFK/KLGA/KHPN to remain
IFR for much if not all day. For terminals to the north/west of
NYC...improvement to mvfr likely in the afternoon. Some breaks of
vfr possible across NYC metro and north and west terminals in the
afternoon.

Low chance of a thunderstorm in the late afternoon/evening for
NYC/NJ metro terminals and terminals to the north/west.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.Tuesday night...MVFR and IFR/lower (coastal terminals)
conditions likely in showers/isolated tstms and/or low clouds/fog.

.Wednesday...MVFR and IFR/lower (coastal terminals) conditions
possible via morning fog/low clouds and showers/isolated tstms.

.Wednesday afternoon through Friday morning...VFR.

.Friday night...MVFR or IFR conditions possible in showers/tstms.

.Saturday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A weak surface trough moves through the waters tonight with the
chance of scattered showers. A cold front approaches Tuesday and
moves into the waters Tuesday night and east Wednesday. Southerly
winds will precede the cold frontal passage and occasional gusts
on the ocean waters may approach small craft levels into early
this evening and Tuesday, especially west of Fire Island Inlet.
Otherwise winds and seas will remain below advisory levels tonight
through Tuesday night.

The pressure gradient is expected to remain rather weak through the
rest of the forecast period. As such, expect seas and winds to
remain below small craft advisory thresholds.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Widespread significant rainfall is not anticipated through
the period. However, scattered showers and thunderstorms may
produce locally heavy downpours Tuesday night through Wednesday.
This could result in minor nuisance flooding.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MET
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...JC/MET
HYDROLOGY...JC/MET




000
FXUS61 KBOX 280114
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
915 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

A cool front will slowly approach the region, bringing scattered
showers and a few thunderstorms through Wednesday, but dry weather
expected the majority of the time. This front will push offshore
Wednesday night. High pressure then brings dry seasonable weather
for late this week. Another cold front may bring more showers and
thunderstorms around Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

915 pm update...

Just a few brief sprinkles were moving across Northern CT this
evening, while the rest of the region was dry at mid evening.

Approaching shortwave will combined with a southwest 25 to 30 knot
low level jet and a burst of elevated instability after midnight.
The result should be the development of scattered showers with the
low risk of an isolated t-storm or two.  Primary risk for this
activity will be northwest of a Boston to Providence corridor after
midnight. PWATS increase to between 1.75 and 2 inches, so brief very
localized heavy rainfall is a possibility. However, activity will
likely be hit and miss so not everyone will see rain overnight.

Low temps will mainly be in the upper 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Southern New England anticipated to remain in the warm sector
ahead of a cold front through Tuesday Night. This will mean a
continuing southerly flow, increasing dew points, and a greater
chance for showers. It appears the most likely period will be from
Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night.

Besides the showers, thunderstorms will also be a concern. Model
soundings are not that gung ho from an instability standpoint. If
we wind up with fewer clouds than current expectations,
instability could wind up becoming more potent. The timing would
also be a factor against widespread strong to severe
thunderstorms, with the event occurring mainly at night.

Seasonable temperatures through this period, albeit humid
conditions continue.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Highlights...

  * Showers/thunderstorms end Wednesday
  * Seasonable Thursday and Friday.
  * Another risk for showers and storms, late friday and the
    weekend.

Overview and model preferences...
PNA remains strongly positive through much of the long term with
negative EPO. Therefore, the reflection across the CONUS remains
nearly unchanged through the period. This is also partially thanks
to a rex-type block with PACNW vortex leading to building ridge
across the northern prairies, culminating in persistent longwave
trof across the northeast. An initial shortwave will be exiting
Wed along with an attendant cold front leading to a brief period
of weak ridging until secondary shortwave from Hudson Bay
reinforces the longwave trof by late in the week. This trof does
take on a slight negative tilt suggesting a slightly stronger
system, however the bulk of the jet forcing shifts into the Boreal
forest regions of Canada. Therefore, the generally dry with only a
risk for spot showers/storms are expected to continue through this
long term cycle. Deterministic guidance is generally in good
enough agreement that a blend should still work fine as a starting
point.

Details...

Wed...
Cold front will be moving through the region and continuing to
weaken as it parallels steering flow aloft. Remnant shra and even
an isolated T-storm can`t be ruled out until the front clears the
region fully, however noting a significant drop in PWATs from 1.5
inches to an inch or less through the day. The sounding reflects
this drying and suggests some stabilization with subsidence
inversion development. Therefore, in spite of the slow movement of
the front, precip chances will wain through the day. H85 temps
near +12C should still lead to temperatures in the mid 80s.

Thu...
Dry wx prevails under weak ridging with front settling offshore.
H85 temps still near +12C, so another day with highs in the 80s
and lows dropping back into the upper 50s and low 60s is expected.

Fri into Sun...
More significant differences here between available guidance,
including the ensembles. Cold front will sweep through the region
connected to low pres moving across ON/QC. Best forcing remains N,
however decreased stability coincident with increase in PWATs back
to nearly 1.5 inches suggest increasing risk for diurnally driven
shra/tstorms. How quickly and ultimately how far the front moves
offshore will define how long into Saturday this risk lasts.
Secondary frontal wave development also possible, with the ECMWF
leading the charge for Sun, suggesting some rain across the region
from the S. Will maintain a low risk, but with settling trof, it
may remain far enough offshore for little impact. Either case, a
relatively unsettled period.

Early next week...
Another round of weak ridging within the longwave trof suggests a
return to dry wx and seasonable temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Tuesday Night/...

Tonight...Moderate Confidence.  MVFR CIGS will overspread much of
the interior overnight with even the risk for localized IFR
conditions.  Scattered showers with the low risk of an isolated t-
storm or two after midnight.  To the southeast of a Boston to
Providence line, moisture may be too shallow to support widespread
low clouds/fog through daybreak but will have to watch closely given
low temp/dewpoint spread.

Tuesday...Moderate confidence. Any low clouds and
fog with patchy MVFR-IFR conditions should dissipate by 14Z. Will
see MVFR-IFR conditions in scattered showers and thunderstorms,
mainly away from the coastal plain during the afternoon.

Tuesday night...Moderate confidence. VFR with areas of MVFR in
numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms.

KBOS TAF...Moderate confidence in TAF.

KBDL TAF...Moderate confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/...

Wednesday...Moderate confidence

VFR with areas of MVFR in morning showers and thunderstorms. Areas
of IFR possible in fog and low clouds especially in the morning.
South winds gusting to 20 knots will shift from the West after the
cold front moves through.

Thursday-Saturday...Moderate confidence

VFR. North winds become variable Thursday, then from the south
Friday.  Showers/tstms will develop over New York State, and may
move into Southern New England Friday evening and night. These
showers and storms would have areas of MVFR cigs/vsbys.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Tuesday Night/...

Southwest winds will gust into the lower 20 knots at times, but
should generally remain below small craft advisory thresholds. Small
craft headlines will continue through 2 am Tuesday for our far
northeast waters, where marginal 5 foot seas remain in place.

Scattered showers, and perhaps a few isolated thunderstorms,
should eventually impact the coastal waters, mainly Tuesday night
into Wednesday.

Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/...

Wednesday...Moderate confidence.

Showers and thunderstorms cross the waters with south wind gusts
near 20 knots at times. Winds shift from the west as a cold front
crosses the waters. Low vsbys possible ahead of the cold front in
showers and storms as well as in fog. No headlines planned at this
time.

Thursday-Saturday...Moderate confidence.

High pressure builds over the waters Thursday and moves off to the
east Friday.  A cold front approaches from the west Friday night.
Winds and seas should remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria.
Scattered showers/thunderstorms possible Friday night as the cold
front approaches.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ250.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Belk/Doody
NEAR TERM...Frank
SHORT TERM...Belk
LONG TERM...Doody
AVIATION...Frank/Belk/Doody
MARINE...Frank/Belk/Doody




000
FXUS61 KBOX 280114
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
915 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

A cool front will slowly approach the region, bringing scattered
showers and a few thunderstorms through Wednesday, but dry weather
expected the majority of the time. This front will push offshore
Wednesday night. High pressure then brings dry seasonable weather
for late this week. Another cold front may bring more showers and
thunderstorms around Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

915 pm update...

Just a few brief sprinkles were moving across Northern CT this
evening, while the rest of the region was dry at mid evening.

Approaching shortwave will combined with a southwest 25 to 30 knot
low level jet and a burst of elevated instability after midnight.
The result should be the development of scattered showers with the
low risk of an isolated t-storm or two.  Primary risk for this
activity will be northwest of a Boston to Providence corridor after
midnight. PWATS increase to between 1.75 and 2 inches, so brief very
localized heavy rainfall is a possibility. However, activity will
likely be hit and miss so not everyone will see rain overnight.

Low temps will mainly be in the upper 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Southern New England anticipated to remain in the warm sector
ahead of a cold front through Tuesday Night. This will mean a
continuing southerly flow, increasing dew points, and a greater
chance for showers. It appears the most likely period will be from
Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night.

Besides the showers, thunderstorms will also be a concern. Model
soundings are not that gung ho from an instability standpoint. If
we wind up with fewer clouds than current expectations,
instability could wind up becoming more potent. The timing would
also be a factor against widespread strong to severe
thunderstorms, with the event occurring mainly at night.

Seasonable temperatures through this period, albeit humid
conditions continue.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Highlights...

  * Showers/thunderstorms end Wednesday
  * Seasonable Thursday and Friday.
  * Another risk for showers and storms, late friday and the
    weekend.

Overview and model preferences...
PNA remains strongly positive through much of the long term with
negative EPO. Therefore, the reflection across the CONUS remains
nearly unchanged through the period. This is also partially thanks
to a rex-type block with PACNW vortex leading to building ridge
across the northern prairies, culminating in persistent longwave
trof across the northeast. An initial shortwave will be exiting
Wed along with an attendant cold front leading to a brief period
of weak ridging until secondary shortwave from Hudson Bay
reinforces the longwave trof by late in the week. This trof does
take on a slight negative tilt suggesting a slightly stronger
system, however the bulk of the jet forcing shifts into the Boreal
forest regions of Canada. Therefore, the generally dry with only a
risk for spot showers/storms are expected to continue through this
long term cycle. Deterministic guidance is generally in good
enough agreement that a blend should still work fine as a starting
point.

Details...

Wed...
Cold front will be moving through the region and continuing to
weaken as it parallels steering flow aloft. Remnant shra and even
an isolated T-storm can`t be ruled out until the front clears the
region fully, however noting a significant drop in PWATs from 1.5
inches to an inch or less through the day. The sounding reflects
this drying and suggests some stabilization with subsidence
inversion development. Therefore, in spite of the slow movement of
the front, precip chances will wain through the day. H85 temps
near +12C should still lead to temperatures in the mid 80s.

Thu...
Dry wx prevails under weak ridging with front settling offshore.
H85 temps still near +12C, so another day with highs in the 80s
and lows dropping back into the upper 50s and low 60s is expected.

Fri into Sun...
More significant differences here between available guidance,
including the ensembles. Cold front will sweep through the region
connected to low pres moving across ON/QC. Best forcing remains N,
however decreased stability coincident with increase in PWATs back
to nearly 1.5 inches suggest increasing risk for diurnally driven
shra/tstorms. How quickly and ultimately how far the front moves
offshore will define how long into Saturday this risk lasts.
Secondary frontal wave development also possible, with the ECMWF
leading the charge for Sun, suggesting some rain across the region
from the S. Will maintain a low risk, but with settling trof, it
may remain far enough offshore for little impact. Either case, a
relatively unsettled period.

Early next week...
Another round of weak ridging within the longwave trof suggests a
return to dry wx and seasonable temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Tuesday Night/...

Tonight...Moderate Confidence.  MVFR CIGS will overspread much of
the interior overnight with even the risk for localized IFR
conditions.  Scattered showers with the low risk of an isolated t-
storm or two after midnight.  To the southeast of a Boston to
Providence line, moisture may be too shallow to support widespread
low clouds/fog through daybreak but will have to watch closely given
low temp/dewpoint spread.

Tuesday...Moderate confidence. Any low clouds and
fog with patchy MVFR-IFR conditions should dissipate by 14Z. Will
see MVFR-IFR conditions in scattered showers and thunderstorms,
mainly away from the coastal plain during the afternoon.

Tuesday night...Moderate confidence. VFR with areas of MVFR in
numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms.

KBOS TAF...Moderate confidence in TAF.

KBDL TAF...Moderate confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/...

Wednesday...Moderate confidence

VFR with areas of MVFR in morning showers and thunderstorms. Areas
of IFR possible in fog and low clouds especially in the morning.
South winds gusting to 20 knots will shift from the West after the
cold front moves through.

Thursday-Saturday...Moderate confidence

VFR. North winds become variable Thursday, then from the south
Friday.  Showers/tstms will develop over New York State, and may
move into Southern New England Friday evening and night. These
showers and storms would have areas of MVFR cigs/vsbys.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Tuesday Night/...

Southwest winds will gust into the lower 20 knots at times, but
should generally remain below small craft advisory thresholds. Small
craft headlines will continue through 2 am Tuesday for our far
northeast waters, where marginal 5 foot seas remain in place.

Scattered showers, and perhaps a few isolated thunderstorms,
should eventually impact the coastal waters, mainly Tuesday night
into Wednesday.

Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/...

Wednesday...Moderate confidence.

Showers and thunderstorms cross the waters with south wind gusts
near 20 knots at times. Winds shift from the west as a cold front
crosses the waters. Low vsbys possible ahead of the cold front in
showers and storms as well as in fog. No headlines planned at this
time.

Thursday-Saturday...Moderate confidence.

High pressure builds over the waters Thursday and moves off to the
east Friday.  A cold front approaches from the west Friday night.
Winds and seas should remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria.
Scattered showers/thunderstorms possible Friday night as the cold
front approaches.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ250.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Belk/Doody
NEAR TERM...Frank
SHORT TERM...Belk
LONG TERM...Doody
AVIATION...Frank/Belk/Doody
MARINE...Frank/Belk/Doody




000
FXUS61 KOKX 280105
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
905 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak trough moves across the region tonight. A cold front
approaches Tuesday and moves into the area Tuesday night, and
through the area Wednesday. The front moves farther offshore
Wednesday night. Weak high pressure returns for Thursday through
Friday. Another cold front then approaches and passes through late
Friday night into Saturday. High pressure builds in behind the
front Sunday and Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Showers continue to fall as of 9 pm across approximately the
western half of the county warning area. The rain had tapered off
however across most of Orange county. The 18Z models do show the
rain chances continuing and even slowly expanding eastward
overnight. With this scenario being supported by the current radar
data, the forecast has been adjusted accordingly.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The longwave upper trough continues to dig into the eastern states
Tuesday and Tuesday night with additional energy rotating through
the trough. By 12Z Wednesday the trough axis still remains to the
west, through the eastern Great Lakes and into the Ohio Valley.
Gulf of Mexico moisture is drawn up into the area through the
period with increasing low and mid level moisture. A more stable
marine layer remains in place and will limit the threat of
thunderstorms. However, inland instability increases Tuesday
afternoon and into the evening. Cape will be limited, however, a
few stronger thunderstorms will be possible, especially across the
lower Hudson Valley. The storm prediction center has a slight risk
area into portions of Orange county, but will not mention any
enhanced wording at this time as the better chances for the
stronger storms will be to the west.

There is a moderate risk for the development of rip currents at
Atlantic Ocean beaches.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The cold front will likely be over the eastern zones Wednesday
morning. It will slowly push offshore through the day as it
dissipates. Its eastward progression could be slowed down by a weak
wave of low pressure attempting to form along the front. Thinking is
that chances of showers and thunderstorms will be primarily over the
eastern zones during the morning. Then in the afternoon and early
evening, PVA and destabilization could bring a shower or storm to
the rest of the forecast area.

High pressure brings dry weather on Thursday and Thursday night. For
Friday, a pre-frontal trough brings low chances of showers and
storms. The trailing cold front moves in Friday night, when
overall better chances occur.

It appears that this cold front will be slow to push offshore, so
low chances of showers and storms have been left in for eastern
sections Saturday morning. The front eventually sags to the south as
the upper flow aloft becomes more cyclonic Saturday night into
Sunday. ECMWF, which has been a northern outlier with a wave of low
pressure forming along the front, has trended farther south/drier
with this feature and associated precipitation. Will still leave in a
slight chance for the southern zones for this period until
confidence in dry weather increases further. High pressure otherwise
builds in from the northwest on Monday with dry conditions.

Temperatures through the long term period will be generally near
normal.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A weak low pressure trough will approach tonight, then a cold
front will approach on Tuesday...crossing Tuesday night into
Wednesday.

Gusty s/se winds gradually weaken through the late
evening...around 5 to 10 kt overnight...increasing to 10 to 15 kt
Tue afternoon. If breaks of sunshine develop winds for coastal
terminals could be around 5 kt stronger than forecast...with gusts
20 to 25 kt.

Low clouds likely to develop this evening at NYC and coastal
terminals, with MVFR cigs to start, then IFR overnight...lifr
possible for KGON/KISP. MVFR cigs expected to develop for
terminals to the north/west overnight.

IFR likely...possibly LIFR...across eastern terminals through the
day. Potential for KJFK/KLGA/KHPN to remain IFR all day. For NJ
terminals and terminals to the north/west...improvement to mvfr
likely in the afternoon. Low chance of a thunderstorm in the late
afternoon/evening for NYC/NJ metro terminals and terminals to the
north/west.

     NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: Initial timing of MVFR and then IFR cigs
tonight still a little uncertain. Potential for ifr cigs to
remain through the day. Low prob of tsra in late afternoon.
Southerly wind gusts of 20-25 kt possible tue afternoon if partial
sunshine materialize.

KLGA TAF Comments: Initial timing of MVFR cigs tonight could be
off by 1 to 2 hrs. Potential for ifr cigs late tonight and to
remain through the day. Low prob of tsra in late afternoon.
Southerly wind gusts of 20-25 kt possible Tue afternoon if
partial sunshine materialize.

KEWR TAF Comments: Initial timing of MVFR cigs tonight could be
off by 1 to 2 hrs. Low prob of tsra in late afternoon. occasional
Se wind gusts of 15 to 20 kt possible Tue afternoon if partial
sunshine materialize.

KTEB TAF Comments: Initial timing of MVFR cigs tonight could be
off by 1 to 2 hrs. Low prob of tsra in late afternoon. Occasional
S wind gusts of 15 to 20 kt possible Tue afternoon if partial
sunshine materialize.

KHPN TAF Comments: Initial timing of MVFR and then IFR/LIFR cigs
tonight could be off by 1 to 2 hrs. IFR cigs possible to remain through
the day. Low prob of tsra in late afternoon. Occasional southerly
wind gusts of 15-20 kt possible Tue afternoon if partial sunshine
materialize.

KISP TAF Comments: Initial timing of MVFR and then IFR/LIFR cigs
tonight could be off by 1 to 2 hrs. IFR or lower cigs likely to
remain through the day. Southerly wind gusts of 15-20 kt possible
Tue afternoon if partial sunshine materialize.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.Tuesday night...MVFR and IFR/lower (coastal terminals)
conditions likely in showers/isolated tstms and/or low clouds/fog.

.Wednesday...MVFR and IFR/lower (coastal terminals) conditions
possible via morning fog/low clouds and showers/isolated tstms.

.Wednesday afternoon through Friday morning...VFR.

.Friday night...MVFR or IFR conditions possible in showers/tstms.

.Saturday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A weak surface trough moves through the waters tonight with the
chance of scattered showers. A cold front approaches Tuesday and
moves into the waters Tuesday night and east Wednesday. Southerly
winds will precede the cold frontal passage and occasional gusts
on the ocean waters may approach small craft levels into early
this evening and Tuesday, especially west of Fire Island Inlet.
Otherwise winds and seas will remain below advisory levels tonight
through Tuesday night.

The pressure gradient is expected to remain rather weak through the
rest of the forecast period. As such, expect seas and winds to
remain below small craft advisory thresholds.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Widespread significant rainfall is not anticipated through
the period. However, scattered showers and thunderstorms may
produce locally heavy downpours Tuesday night through Wednesday.
This could result in minor nuisance flooding.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MET
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...JC/MET
HYDROLOGY...JC/MET




000
FXUS61 KOKX 280105
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
905 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak trough moves across the region tonight. A cold front
approaches Tuesday and moves into the area Tuesday night, and
through the area Wednesday. The front moves farther offshore
Wednesday night. Weak high pressure returns for Thursday through
Friday. Another cold front then approaches and passes through late
Friday night into Saturday. High pressure builds in behind the
front Sunday and Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Showers continue to fall as of 9 pm across approximately the
western half of the county warning area. The rain had tapered off
however across most of Orange county. The 18Z models do show the
rain chances continuing and even slowly expanding eastward
overnight. With this scenario being supported by the current radar
data, the forecast has been adjusted accordingly.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The longwave upper trough continues to dig into the eastern states
Tuesday and Tuesday night with additional energy rotating through
the trough. By 12Z Wednesday the trough axis still remains to the
west, through the eastern Great Lakes and into the Ohio Valley.
Gulf of Mexico moisture is drawn up into the area through the
period with increasing low and mid level moisture. A more stable
marine layer remains in place and will limit the threat of
thunderstorms. However, inland instability increases Tuesday
afternoon and into the evening. Cape will be limited, however, a
few stronger thunderstorms will be possible, especially across the
lower Hudson Valley. The storm prediction center has a slight risk
area into portions of Orange county, but will not mention any
enhanced wording at this time as the better chances for the
stronger storms will be to the west.

There is a moderate risk for the development of rip currents at
Atlantic Ocean beaches.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The cold front will likely be over the eastern zones Wednesday
morning. It will slowly push offshore through the day as it
dissipates. Its eastward progression could be slowed down by a weak
wave of low pressure attempting to form along the front. Thinking is
that chances of showers and thunderstorms will be primarily over the
eastern zones during the morning. Then in the afternoon and early
evening, PVA and destabilization could bring a shower or storm to
the rest of the forecast area.

High pressure brings dry weather on Thursday and Thursday night. For
Friday, a pre-frontal trough brings low chances of showers and
storms. The trailing cold front moves in Friday night, when
overall better chances occur.

It appears that this cold front will be slow to push offshore, so
low chances of showers and storms have been left in for eastern
sections Saturday morning. The front eventually sags to the south as
the upper flow aloft becomes more cyclonic Saturday night into
Sunday. ECMWF, which has been a northern outlier with a wave of low
pressure forming along the front, has trended farther south/drier
with this feature and associated precipitation. Will still leave in a
slight chance for the southern zones for this period until
confidence in dry weather increases further. High pressure otherwise
builds in from the northwest on Monday with dry conditions.

Temperatures through the long term period will be generally near
normal.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A weak low pressure trough will approach tonight, then a cold
front will approach on Tuesday...crossing Tuesday night into
Wednesday.

Gusty s/se winds gradually weaken through the late
evening...around 5 to 10 kt overnight...increasing to 10 to 15 kt
Tue afternoon. If breaks of sunshine develop winds for coastal
terminals could be around 5 kt stronger than forecast...with gusts
20 to 25 kt.

Low clouds likely to develop this evening at NYC and coastal
terminals, with MVFR cigs to start, then IFR overnight...lifr
possible for KGON/KISP. MVFR cigs expected to develop for
terminals to the north/west overnight.

IFR likely...possibly LIFR...across eastern terminals through the
day. Potential for KJFK/KLGA/KHPN to remain IFR all day. For NJ
terminals and terminals to the north/west...improvement to mvfr
likely in the afternoon. Low chance of a thunderstorm in the late
afternoon/evening for NYC/NJ metro terminals and terminals to the
north/west.

     NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: Initial timing of MVFR and then IFR cigs
tonight still a little uncertain. Potential for ifr cigs to
remain through the day. Low prob of tsra in late afternoon.
Southerly wind gusts of 20-25 kt possible tue afternoon if partial
sunshine materialize.

KLGA TAF Comments: Initial timing of MVFR cigs tonight could be
off by 1 to 2 hrs. Potential for ifr cigs late tonight and to
remain through the day. Low prob of tsra in late afternoon.
Southerly wind gusts of 20-25 kt possible Tue afternoon if
partial sunshine materialize.

KEWR TAF Comments: Initial timing of MVFR cigs tonight could be
off by 1 to 2 hrs. Low prob of tsra in late afternoon. occasional
Se wind gusts of 15 to 20 kt possible Tue afternoon if partial
sunshine materialize.

KTEB TAF Comments: Initial timing of MVFR cigs tonight could be
off by 1 to 2 hrs. Low prob of tsra in late afternoon. Occasional
S wind gusts of 15 to 20 kt possible Tue afternoon if partial
sunshine materialize.

KHPN TAF Comments: Initial timing of MVFR and then IFR/LIFR cigs
tonight could be off by 1 to 2 hrs. IFR cigs possible to remain through
the day. Low prob of tsra in late afternoon. Occasional southerly
wind gusts of 15-20 kt possible Tue afternoon if partial sunshine
materialize.

KISP TAF Comments: Initial timing of MVFR and then IFR/LIFR cigs
tonight could be off by 1 to 2 hrs. IFR or lower cigs likely to
remain through the day. Southerly wind gusts of 15-20 kt possible
Tue afternoon if partial sunshine materialize.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.Tuesday night...MVFR and IFR/lower (coastal terminals)
conditions likely in showers/isolated tstms and/or low clouds/fog.

.Wednesday...MVFR and IFR/lower (coastal terminals) conditions
possible via morning fog/low clouds and showers/isolated tstms.

.Wednesday afternoon through Friday morning...VFR.

.Friday night...MVFR or IFR conditions possible in showers/tstms.

.Saturday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A weak surface trough moves through the waters tonight with the
chance of scattered showers. A cold front approaches Tuesday and
moves into the waters Tuesday night and east Wednesday. Southerly
winds will precede the cold frontal passage and occasional gusts
on the ocean waters may approach small craft levels into early
this evening and Tuesday, especially west of Fire Island Inlet.
Otherwise winds and seas will remain below advisory levels tonight
through Tuesday night.

The pressure gradient is expected to remain rather weak through the
rest of the forecast period. As such, expect seas and winds to
remain below small craft advisory thresholds.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Widespread significant rainfall is not anticipated through
the period. However, scattered showers and thunderstorms may
produce locally heavy downpours Tuesday night through Wednesday.
This could result in minor nuisance flooding.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MET
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...JC/MET
HYDROLOGY...JC/MET




000
FXUS61 KALY 280022
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
822 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak warm front will exit New England overnight. A cold front
move through our region Tuesday afternoon and night. Showers and
thunderstorms are expected Tuesday and Tuesday night. High pressure
will build east from the Midwest Wednesday, and bring dry weather
through the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Well this is my last AFD and my last operational shift as I will
be retiring July 1. Its probably been 30 some years since the
first AFD I wrote one sometime in the 1980s when the product was
created. Warren R.Snyder

The band of showers that moved though today...have exited the
region. The weak wmfnt that triggered them was NNE to SSW from Vt
into the Catskills. While much of the Mohawk Valley and
Adirondacks have cleared in this systems wake...Td have risen to
the 60s in many areas and an sct shra have formed again in the w
mhwk vly.

The combination of slowing eastward movement of wmfnt incrg llvl
moisture...will result in this clearing decelerating. Much of the
guidance suggests clouds will form and lower in this moisture
rich environment with some areas of hz and light fog. The western
edge of the clearing seems to have set up fm roughly Warren County
into the Catskills. As light winds and a mostly clear sky allow
temperatures to fall faster in these clearing areas than areas to
the east that remain cloudy. As td have risen into the 60s...min
temps will be confined to this range as well.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Upper energy north of the Great Lakes and the associated cold
front making steady progress east and an axis of instability ahead
of the cold front. Some sun is expected at least in western areas
Tuesday morning...and how far east sees some sun depends on how
the band of clouds over us evolves through the night. Once we
reach convective temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s...most
areas should see more clouds than sun by midday...with showers and
thunderstorms developing over central NY..then tracking through
eastern NY and Western New England in the afternoon through the
evening.

There is a good consensus in guidance that an axis of decent
instability sets up ahead of the cold front...mainly due to
relatively high surface dew points and not so much due to hot
surface temperatures. However...the high dew points over the Great
Lakes to western New York at model initialization time this
morning have mixed out to lower levels this afternoon.
So...surface dew points tomorrow will have a big influence on
severe weather potential...and will make the difference between
700-1000 j/kg CAPES and 1000-2000 j/kg CAPES.

There is a slight risk of severe weather...and as long as dew
points rise and translate into decent instability...initial
thunderstorm updrafts will pulse up strongly...with potential
marginal severe hail and winds. As thunderstorms track east...new
updrafts will again pulse up from time to time with the potential
for brief scattered marginally severe hail and winds.

The low level shear and upper jet/upper dynamics are relatively
weak but there is a decent boundary layer thermal gradient along
the cold front for some frontogenetic convergence. So...putting
the possibility for small hail and gusty winds into the forecast
Tuesday afternoon and evening. There could be some locally heavy
rain...with the relatively weak steering flow...if storms can
train. It has been a bit dry in our region...so any flash flood
threat is very low but will just have to keep an eye out for
training thunderstorms for some localized nuisance ponding of
water in some areas. Highs Tuesday in the mid 70s to lower 80s.

Lingering shower activity Tuesday night as winds shift to west and
northwest and by daybreak Wednesday...any isolated showers should
be over eastern NY and New England. The isolated showers supported
by lagging upper energy should exit through the afternoon...with
improving sky cover through the day in all areas. Highs Wednesday
in the mid 70s to lower 80s. Much more sun and dryer weather
Thursday with highs in the lower to mid 80s...but mid to upper
70s in higher terrain.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Not much change from the previous long term forecast package as a
rather persistent northwest flow regime will reestablish itself
heading into the holiday weekend.

We begin the period with a surface ridge and southwest flow regime
aloft with warm and a bit humid conditions ahead of a cold front
approaching the Great Lakes region.  Global models are in good
agreement with the synoptic pattern as we will retain the chance for
showers and thunderstorms in the forecast heading into Friday.

The passage of the cold front will usher in a bit cooler but
noticeably drier air mass for the weekend with mainly dry conditions.
There are some hints of a weak wave moving southeast toward the St
Lawrence Valley and Adirondack Park on Sunday where we will place a
slight chance wording.

Highs will generally range between 75-85F and overnight lows mainly
into the 50s.

A quick look into Independence Holiday forecast, dry and seasonable
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Showers have exited the region as the wmfnt that triggered them
is from Vt into the Catskills. Overnight, combination of rainfall
earlier along with incrg surface dewpoints into the 60s will lead
toward lower CIGS and VIS well into MVFR flight categories. Where breaks
in the clouds occur this evening and winds decouple, IFR conditions
will be possible with fog and/or low stratus.

Winds will generally be from the southerly direction 5 to 10 KTS
overnight in most areas.

Tuesday morning low clouds and fog will dissipate with conds bcmg
VFR in most areas with sct-bkn cu. Hwvr an approaching cdfnt will
trigger shra and tstms some of which could become quite strong in
the afternoon with MVFR conds. SPC has placed the area in a slight
risk of Severe thunderstorms Tuesday.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A weak front will exit the region tonight. A stronger cold front
will track through our region Tuesday afternoon and night.
Isolated showers are expected tonight with more widespread showers
and thunderstorms Tuesday and Tuesday night. High pressure will
then build in from the Midwest through the day Wednesday, with dry
weather returning through the end of the week.

RH will then increase to between 80 and 100 percent tonight.
Minimum RH values on Tuesday will be around 50 to 65
percent...then near 100 percent with scattered thunderstorms later
Tuesday afternoon evening. Minimum RH values on Wednesday around
45 to 60 percent.

Southerly winds will be 15 mph or less tonight. Winds on Tuesday
will be south-southwest at 15 mph or less. Winds will shift to
west and northwest by Wednesday at around 15 mph.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydro problems are expected over the next 5 days.
There will be showers and thunderstorms across the region on
Tuesday, ahead of and along a cold front. Rainfall totals could
reach one third to three quarters of an inch, with some isolated
higher amounts. Ponding of water will occur within any persistent
thunderstorms. A few lingering showers are possible Wednesday with
light rainfall amounts.

Dry weather will return by Thursday, with high pressure moving
back in across the region.

The latest drought monitor now has most of our region labeled
`Abnormally Dry` (D0). In fact, over the past 30 days, most of our
region is approximately 1-3 inches below normal in terms of
rainfall.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Snyder
NEAR TERM...Snyder
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...Snyder
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS




000
FXUS61 KALY 280022
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
822 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak warm front will exit New England overnight. A cold front
move through our region Tuesday afternoon and night. Showers and
thunderstorms are expected Tuesday and Tuesday night. High pressure
will build east from the Midwest Wednesday, and bring dry weather
through the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Well this is my last AFD and my last operational shift as I will
be retiring July 1. Its probably been 30 some years since the
first AFD I wrote one sometime in the 1980s when the product was
created. Warren R.Snyder

The band of showers that moved though today...have exited the
region. The weak wmfnt that triggered them was NNE to SSW from Vt
into the Catskills. While much of the Mohawk Valley and
Adirondacks have cleared in this systems wake...Td have risen to
the 60s in many areas and an sct shra have formed again in the w
mhwk vly.

The combination of slowing eastward movement of wmfnt incrg llvl
moisture...will result in this clearing decelerating. Much of the
guidance suggests clouds will form and lower in this moisture
rich environment with some areas of hz and light fog. The western
edge of the clearing seems to have set up fm roughly Warren County
into the Catskills. As light winds and a mostly clear sky allow
temperatures to fall faster in these clearing areas than areas to
the east that remain cloudy. As td have risen into the 60s...min
temps will be confined to this range as well.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Upper energy north of the Great Lakes and the associated cold
front making steady progress east and an axis of instability ahead
of the cold front. Some sun is expected at least in western areas
Tuesday morning...and how far east sees some sun depends on how
the band of clouds over us evolves through the night. Once we
reach convective temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s...most
areas should see more clouds than sun by midday...with showers and
thunderstorms developing over central NY..then tracking through
eastern NY and Western New England in the afternoon through the
evening.

There is a good consensus in guidance that an axis of decent
instability sets up ahead of the cold front...mainly due to
relatively high surface dew points and not so much due to hot
surface temperatures. However...the high dew points over the Great
Lakes to western New York at model initialization time this
morning have mixed out to lower levels this afternoon.
So...surface dew points tomorrow will have a big influence on
severe weather potential...and will make the difference between
700-1000 j/kg CAPES and 1000-2000 j/kg CAPES.

There is a slight risk of severe weather...and as long as dew
points rise and translate into decent instability...initial
thunderstorm updrafts will pulse up strongly...with potential
marginal severe hail and winds. As thunderstorms track east...new
updrafts will again pulse up from time to time with the potential
for brief scattered marginally severe hail and winds.

The low level shear and upper jet/upper dynamics are relatively
weak but there is a decent boundary layer thermal gradient along
the cold front for some frontogenetic convergence. So...putting
the possibility for small hail and gusty winds into the forecast
Tuesday afternoon and evening. There could be some locally heavy
rain...with the relatively weak steering flow...if storms can
train. It has been a bit dry in our region...so any flash flood
threat is very low but will just have to keep an eye out for
training thunderstorms for some localized nuisance ponding of
water in some areas. Highs Tuesday in the mid 70s to lower 80s.

Lingering shower activity Tuesday night as winds shift to west and
northwest and by daybreak Wednesday...any isolated showers should
be over eastern NY and New England. The isolated showers supported
by lagging upper energy should exit through the afternoon...with
improving sky cover through the day in all areas. Highs Wednesday
in the mid 70s to lower 80s. Much more sun and dryer weather
Thursday with highs in the lower to mid 80s...but mid to upper
70s in higher terrain.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Not much change from the previous long term forecast package as a
rather persistent northwest flow regime will reestablish itself
heading into the holiday weekend.

We begin the period with a surface ridge and southwest flow regime
aloft with warm and a bit humid conditions ahead of a cold front
approaching the Great Lakes region.  Global models are in good
agreement with the synoptic pattern as we will retain the chance for
showers and thunderstorms in the forecast heading into Friday.

The passage of the cold front will usher in a bit cooler but
noticeably drier air mass for the weekend with mainly dry conditions.
There are some hints of a weak wave moving southeast toward the St
Lawrence Valley and Adirondack Park on Sunday where we will place a
slight chance wording.

Highs will generally range between 75-85F and overnight lows mainly
into the 50s.

A quick look into Independence Holiday forecast, dry and seasonable
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Showers have exited the region as the wmfnt that triggered them
is from Vt into the Catskills. Overnight, combination of rainfall
earlier along with incrg surface dewpoints into the 60s will lead
toward lower CIGS and VIS well into MVFR flight categories. Where breaks
in the clouds occur this evening and winds decouple, IFR conditions
will be possible with fog and/or low stratus.

Winds will generally be from the southerly direction 5 to 10 KTS
overnight in most areas.

Tuesday morning low clouds and fog will dissipate with conds bcmg
VFR in most areas with sct-bkn cu. Hwvr an approaching cdfnt will
trigger shra and tstms some of which could become quite strong in
the afternoon with MVFR conds. SPC has placed the area in a slight
risk of Severe thunderstorms Tuesday.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A weak front will exit the region tonight. A stronger cold front
will track through our region Tuesday afternoon and night.
Isolated showers are expected tonight with more widespread showers
and thunderstorms Tuesday and Tuesday night. High pressure will
then build in from the Midwest through the day Wednesday, with dry
weather returning through the end of the week.

RH will then increase to between 80 and 100 percent tonight.
Minimum RH values on Tuesday will be around 50 to 65
percent...then near 100 percent with scattered thunderstorms later
Tuesday afternoon evening. Minimum RH values on Wednesday around
45 to 60 percent.

Southerly winds will be 15 mph or less tonight. Winds on Tuesday
will be south-southwest at 15 mph or less. Winds will shift to
west and northwest by Wednesday at around 15 mph.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydro problems are expected over the next 5 days.
There will be showers and thunderstorms across the region on
Tuesday, ahead of and along a cold front. Rainfall totals could
reach one third to three quarters of an inch, with some isolated
higher amounts. Ponding of water will occur within any persistent
thunderstorms. A few lingering showers are possible Wednesday with
light rainfall amounts.

Dry weather will return by Thursday, with high pressure moving
back in across the region.

The latest drought monitor now has most of our region labeled
`Abnormally Dry` (D0). In fact, over the past 30 days, most of our
region is approximately 1-3 inches below normal in terms of
rainfall.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Snyder
NEAR TERM...Snyder
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...Snyder
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS




000
FXUS61 KALY 280022
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
822 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak warm front will exit New England overnight. A cold front
move through our region Tuesday afternoon and night. Showers and
thunderstorms are expected Tuesday and Tuesday night. High pressure
will build east from the Midwest Wednesday, and bring dry weather
through the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Well this is my last AFD and my last operational shift as I will
be retiring July 1. Its probably been 30 some years since the
first AFD I wrote one sometime in the 1980s when the product was
created. Warren R.Snyder

The band of showers that moved though today...have exited the
region. The weak wmfnt that triggered them was NNE to SSW from Vt
into the Catskills. While much of the Mohawk Valley and
Adirondacks have cleared in this systems wake...Td have risen to
the 60s in many areas and an sct shra have formed again in the w
mhwk vly.

The combination of slowing eastward movement of wmfnt incrg llvl
moisture...will result in this clearing decelerating. Much of the
guidance suggests clouds will form and lower in this moisture
rich environment with some areas of hz and light fog. The western
edge of the clearing seems to have set up fm roughly Warren County
into the Catskills. As light winds and a mostly clear sky allow
temperatures to fall faster in these clearing areas than areas to
the east that remain cloudy. As td have risen into the 60s...min
temps will be confined to this range as well.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Upper energy north of the Great Lakes and the associated cold
front making steady progress east and an axis of instability ahead
of the cold front. Some sun is expected at least in western areas
Tuesday morning...and how far east sees some sun depends on how
the band of clouds over us evolves through the night. Once we
reach convective temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s...most
areas should see more clouds than sun by midday...with showers and
thunderstorms developing over central NY..then tracking through
eastern NY and Western New England in the afternoon through the
evening.

There is a good consensus in guidance that an axis of decent
instability sets up ahead of the cold front...mainly due to
relatively high surface dew points and not so much due to hot
surface temperatures. However...the high dew points over the Great
Lakes to western New York at model initialization time this
morning have mixed out to lower levels this afternoon.
So...surface dew points tomorrow will have a big influence on
severe weather potential...and will make the difference between
700-1000 j/kg CAPES and 1000-2000 j/kg CAPES.

There is a slight risk of severe weather...and as long as dew
points rise and translate into decent instability...initial
thunderstorm updrafts will pulse up strongly...with potential
marginal severe hail and winds. As thunderstorms track east...new
updrafts will again pulse up from time to time with the potential
for brief scattered marginally severe hail and winds.

The low level shear and upper jet/upper dynamics are relatively
weak but there is a decent boundary layer thermal gradient along
the cold front for some frontogenetic convergence. So...putting
the possibility for small hail and gusty winds into the forecast
Tuesday afternoon and evening. There could be some locally heavy
rain...with the relatively weak steering flow...if storms can
train. It has been a bit dry in our region...so any flash flood
threat is very low but will just have to keep an eye out for
training thunderstorms for some localized nuisance ponding of
water in some areas. Highs Tuesday in the mid 70s to lower 80s.

Lingering shower activity Tuesday night as winds shift to west and
northwest and by daybreak Wednesday...any isolated showers should
be over eastern NY and New England. The isolated showers supported
by lagging upper energy should exit through the afternoon...with
improving sky cover through the day in all areas. Highs Wednesday
in the mid 70s to lower 80s. Much more sun and dryer weather
Thursday with highs in the lower to mid 80s...but mid to upper
70s in higher terrain.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Not much change from the previous long term forecast package as a
rather persistent northwest flow regime will reestablish itself
heading into the holiday weekend.

We begin the period with a surface ridge and southwest flow regime
aloft with warm and a bit humid conditions ahead of a cold front
approaching the Great Lakes region.  Global models are in good
agreement with the synoptic pattern as we will retain the chance for
showers and thunderstorms in the forecast heading into Friday.

The passage of the cold front will usher in a bit cooler but
noticeably drier air mass for the weekend with mainly dry conditions.
There are some hints of a weak wave moving southeast toward the St
Lawrence Valley and Adirondack Park on Sunday where we will place a
slight chance wording.

Highs will generally range between 75-85F and overnight lows mainly
into the 50s.

A quick look into Independence Holiday forecast, dry and seasonable
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Showers have exited the region as the wmfnt that triggered them
is from Vt into the Catskills. Overnight, combination of rainfall
earlier along with incrg surface dewpoints into the 60s will lead
toward lower CIGS and VIS well into MVFR flight categories. Where breaks
in the clouds occur this evening and winds decouple, IFR conditions
will be possible with fog and/or low stratus.

Winds will generally be from the southerly direction 5 to 10 KTS
overnight in most areas.

Tuesday morning low clouds and fog will dissipate with conds bcmg
VFR in most areas with sct-bkn cu. Hwvr an approaching cdfnt will
trigger shra and tstms some of which could become quite strong in
the afternoon with MVFR conds. SPC has placed the area in a slight
risk of Severe thunderstorms Tuesday.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A weak front will exit the region tonight. A stronger cold front
will track through our region Tuesday afternoon and night.
Isolated showers are expected tonight with more widespread showers
and thunderstorms Tuesday and Tuesday night. High pressure will
then build in from the Midwest through the day Wednesday, with dry
weather returning through the end of the week.

RH will then increase to between 80 and 100 percent tonight.
Minimum RH values on Tuesday will be around 50 to 65
percent...then near 100 percent with scattered thunderstorms later
Tuesday afternoon evening. Minimum RH values on Wednesday around
45 to 60 percent.

Southerly winds will be 15 mph or less tonight. Winds on Tuesday
will be south-southwest at 15 mph or less. Winds will shift to
west and northwest by Wednesday at around 15 mph.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydro problems are expected over the next 5 days.
There will be showers and thunderstorms across the region on
Tuesday, ahead of and along a cold front. Rainfall totals could
reach one third to three quarters of an inch, with some isolated
higher amounts. Ponding of water will occur within any persistent
thunderstorms. A few lingering showers are possible Wednesday with
light rainfall amounts.

Dry weather will return by Thursday, with high pressure moving
back in across the region.

The latest drought monitor now has most of our region labeled
`Abnormally Dry` (D0). In fact, over the past 30 days, most of our
region is approximately 1-3 inches below normal in terms of
rainfall.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Snyder
NEAR TERM...Snyder
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...Snyder
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS




000
FXUS61 KALY 280022
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
822 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak warm front will exit New England overnight. A cold front
move through our region Tuesday afternoon and night. Showers and
thunderstorms are expected Tuesday and Tuesday night. High pressure
will build east from the Midwest Wednesday, and bring dry weather
through the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Well this is my last AFD and my last operational shift as I will
be retiring July 1. Its probably been 30 some years since the
first AFD I wrote one sometime in the 1980s when the product was
created. Warren R.Snyder

The band of showers that moved though today...have exited the
region. The weak wmfnt that triggered them was NNE to SSW from Vt
into the Catskills. While much of the Mohawk Valley and
Adirondacks have cleared in this systems wake...Td have risen to
the 60s in many areas and an sct shra have formed again in the w
mhwk vly.

The combination of slowing eastward movement of wmfnt incrg llvl
moisture...will result in this clearing decelerating. Much of the
guidance suggests clouds will form and lower in this moisture
rich environment with some areas of hz and light fog. The western
edge of the clearing seems to have set up fm roughly Warren County
into the Catskills. As light winds and a mostly clear sky allow
temperatures to fall faster in these clearing areas than areas to
the east that remain cloudy. As td have risen into the 60s...min
temps will be confined to this range as well.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Upper energy north of the Great Lakes and the associated cold
front making steady progress east and an axis of instability ahead
of the cold front. Some sun is expected at least in western areas
Tuesday morning...and how far east sees some sun depends on how
the band of clouds over us evolves through the night. Once we
reach convective temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s...most
areas should see more clouds than sun by midday...with showers and
thunderstorms developing over central NY..then tracking through
eastern NY and Western New England in the afternoon through the
evening.

There is a good consensus in guidance that an axis of decent
instability sets up ahead of the cold front...mainly due to
relatively high surface dew points and not so much due to hot
surface temperatures. However...the high dew points over the Great
Lakes to western New York at model initialization time this
morning have mixed out to lower levels this afternoon.
So...surface dew points tomorrow will have a big influence on
severe weather potential...and will make the difference between
700-1000 j/kg CAPES and 1000-2000 j/kg CAPES.

There is a slight risk of severe weather...and as long as dew
points rise and translate into decent instability...initial
thunderstorm updrafts will pulse up strongly...with potential
marginal severe hail and winds. As thunderstorms track east...new
updrafts will again pulse up from time to time with the potential
for brief scattered marginally severe hail and winds.

The low level shear and upper jet/upper dynamics are relatively
weak but there is a decent boundary layer thermal gradient along
the cold front for some frontogenetic convergence. So...putting
the possibility for small hail and gusty winds into the forecast
Tuesday afternoon and evening. There could be some locally heavy
rain...with the relatively weak steering flow...if storms can
train. It has been a bit dry in our region...so any flash flood
threat is very low but will just have to keep an eye out for
training thunderstorms for some localized nuisance ponding of
water in some areas. Highs Tuesday in the mid 70s to lower 80s.

Lingering shower activity Tuesday night as winds shift to west and
northwest and by daybreak Wednesday...any isolated showers should
be over eastern NY and New England. The isolated showers supported
by lagging upper energy should exit through the afternoon...with
improving sky cover through the day in all areas. Highs Wednesday
in the mid 70s to lower 80s. Much more sun and dryer weather
Thursday with highs in the lower to mid 80s...but mid to upper
70s in higher terrain.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Not much change from the previous long term forecast package as a
rather persistent northwest flow regime will reestablish itself
heading into the holiday weekend.

We begin the period with a surface ridge and southwest flow regime
aloft with warm and a bit humid conditions ahead of a cold front
approaching the Great Lakes region.  Global models are in good
agreement with the synoptic pattern as we will retain the chance for
showers and thunderstorms in the forecast heading into Friday.

The passage of the cold front will usher in a bit cooler but
noticeably drier air mass for the weekend with mainly dry conditions.
There are some hints of a weak wave moving southeast toward the St
Lawrence Valley and Adirondack Park on Sunday where we will place a
slight chance wording.

Highs will generally range between 75-85F and overnight lows mainly
into the 50s.

A quick look into Independence Holiday forecast, dry and seasonable
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Showers have exited the region as the wmfnt that triggered them
is from Vt into the Catskills. Overnight, combination of rainfall
earlier along with incrg surface dewpoints into the 60s will lead
toward lower CIGS and VIS well into MVFR flight categories. Where breaks
in the clouds occur this evening and winds decouple, IFR conditions
will be possible with fog and/or low stratus.

Winds will generally be from the southerly direction 5 to 10 KTS
overnight in most areas.

Tuesday morning low clouds and fog will dissipate with conds bcmg
VFR in most areas with sct-bkn cu. Hwvr an approaching cdfnt will
trigger shra and tstms some of which could become quite strong in
the afternoon with MVFR conds. SPC has placed the area in a slight
risk of Severe thunderstorms Tuesday.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A weak front will exit the region tonight. A stronger cold front
will track through our region Tuesday afternoon and night.
Isolated showers are expected tonight with more widespread showers
and thunderstorms Tuesday and Tuesday night. High pressure will
then build in from the Midwest through the day Wednesday, with dry
weather returning through the end of the week.

RH will then increase to between 80 and 100 percent tonight.
Minimum RH values on Tuesday will be around 50 to 65
percent...then near 100 percent with scattered thunderstorms later
Tuesday afternoon evening. Minimum RH values on Wednesday around
45 to 60 percent.

Southerly winds will be 15 mph or less tonight. Winds on Tuesday
will be south-southwest at 15 mph or less. Winds will shift to
west and northwest by Wednesday at around 15 mph.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydro problems are expected over the next 5 days.
There will be showers and thunderstorms across the region on
Tuesday, ahead of and along a cold front. Rainfall totals could
reach one third to three quarters of an inch, with some isolated
higher amounts. Ponding of water will occur within any persistent
thunderstorms. A few lingering showers are possible Wednesday with
light rainfall amounts.

Dry weather will return by Thursday, with high pressure moving
back in across the region.

The latest drought monitor now has most of our region labeled
`Abnormally Dry` (D0). In fact, over the past 30 days, most of our
region is approximately 1-3 inches below normal in terms of
rainfall.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Snyder
NEAR TERM...Snyder
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...Snyder
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS




000
FXUS61 KOKX 280019
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
819 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak trough moves across the region tonight. A cold front
approaches Tuesday and moves into the area Tuesday night, and
through the area Wednesday. The front moves farther offshore
Wednesday night. Weak high pressure returns for Thursday through
Friday. Another cold front then approaches and passes through late
Friday night into Saturday. High pressure builds in behind the
front Sunday and Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A weak surface trough moves into the area this evening and late
tonight while slowly dissipating. Heights continue to fall slowly
as a long wave upper trough moves into the Great Lakes region.
Weak lift is accompanying the trough with little surface or mixed
layer CAPE. Also, instability is minimal with the best instability
across the lower Hudson Valley. So will not mention any thunder
tonight. As the area of showers moves farther to the east and
south through tonight, expect coverage to decrease. So, begin with
likely pops mainly across the western zones and lower to slight
chance late tonight. With increased low level moisture and a
southerly flow a marine layer will be in place. Stratus was
developing during the afternoon, and will become widespread
tonight.

There is a moderate risk for the development of rip currents at
Atlantic Ocean beaches through early this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The longwave upper trough continues to dig into the eastern states
Tuesday and Tuesday night with additional energy rotating through
the trough. By 12Z Wednesday the trough axis still remains to the
west, through the eastern Great Lakes and into the Ohio Valley.
Gulf of Mexico moisture is drawn up into the area through the
period with increasing low and mid level moisture. A more stable
marine layer remains in place and will limit the threat of
thunderstorms. However, inland instability increases Tuesday
afternoon and into the evening. Cape will be limited, however, a
few stronger thunderstorms will be possible, especially across the
lower Hudson Valley. The storm prediction center has a slight risk
area into portions of Orange county, but will not mention any
enhanced wording at this time as the better chances for the
stronger storms will be to the west.

There is a moderate risk for the development of rip currents at
Atlantic Ocean beaches.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The cold front will likely be over the eastern zones Wednesday
morning. It will slowly push offshore through the day as it
dissipates. Its eastward progression could be slowed down by a weak
wave of low pressure attempting to form along the front. Thinking is
that chances of showers and thunderstorms will be primarily over the
eastern zones during the morning. Then in the afternoon and early
evening, PVA and destabilization could bring a shower or storm to
the rest of the forecast area.

High pressure brings dry weather on Thursday and Thursday night. For
Friday, a pre-frontal trough brings low chances of showers and
storms. The trailing cold front moves in Friday night, when
overall better chances occur.

It appears that this cold front will be slow to push offshore, so
low chances of showers and storms have been left in for eastern
sections Saturday morning. The front eventually sags to the south as
the upper flow aloft becomes more cyclonic Saturday night into
Sunday. ECMWF, which has been a northern outlier with a wave of low
pressure forming along the front, has trended farther south/drier
with this feature and associated precipitation. Will still leave in a
slight chance for the southern zones for this period until
confidence in dry weather increases further. High pressure otherwise
builds in from the northwest on Monday with dry conditions.

Temperatures through the long term period will be generally near
normal.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A weak low pressure trough will approach tonight, then a cold
front will approach on Tuesday...crossing Tuesday night into
Wednesday.

Gusty s/se winds gradually weaken through the late
evening...around 5 to 10 kt overnight...increasing to 10 to 15 kt
Tue afternoon. If breaks of sunshine develop winds for coastal
terminals could be around 5 kt stronger than forecast...with gusts
20 to 25 kt.

Low clouds likely to develop this evening at NYC and coastal
terminals, with MVFR cigs to start, then IFR overnight...lifr
possible for KGON/KISP. MVFR cigs expected to develop for
terminals to the north/west overnight.

IFR likely...possibly LIFR...across eastern terminals through the
day. Potential for KJFK/KLGA/KHPN to remain IFR all day. For NJ
terminals and terminals to the north/west...improvement to mvfr
likely in the afternoon. Low chance of a thunderstorm in the late
afternoon/evening for NYC/NJ metro terminals and terminals to the
north/west.

     NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: Initial timing of MVFR and then IFR cigs
tonight still a little uncertain. Potential for ifr cigs to
remain through the day. Low prob of tsra in late afternoon.
Southerly wind gusts of 20-25 kt possible tue afternoon if partial
sunshine materialize.

KLGA TAF Comments: Initial timing of MVFR cigs tonight could be
off by 1 to 2 hrs. Potential for ifr cigs late tonight and to
remain through the day. Low prob of tsra in late afternoon.
Southerly wind gusts of 20-25 kt possible Tue afternoon if
partial sunshine materialize.

KEWR TAF Comments: Initial timing of MVFR cigs tonight could be
off by 1 to 2 hrs. Low prob of tsra in late afternoon. occasional
Se wind gusts of 15 to 20 kt possible Tue afternoon if partial
sunshine materialize.

KTEB TAF Comments: Initial timing of MVFR cigs tonight could be
off by 1 to 2 hrs. Low prob of tsra in late afternoon. Occasional
S wind gusts of 15 to 20 kt possible Tue afternoon if partial
sunshine materialize.

KHPN TAF Comments: Initial timing of MVFR and then IFR/LIFR cigs
tonight could be off by 1 to 2 hrs. IFR cigs possible to remain through
the day. Low prob of tsra in late afternoon. Occasional southerly
wind gusts of 15-20 kt possible Tue afternoon if partial sunshine
materialize.

KISP TAF Comments: Initial timing of MVFR and then IFR/LIFR cigs
tonight could be off by 1 to 2 hrs. IFR or lower cigs likely to
remain through the day. Southerly wind gusts of 15-20 kt possible
Tue afternoon if partial sunshine materialize.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.Tuesday night...MVFR and IFR/lower (coastal terminals)
conditions likely in showers/isolated tstms and/or low clouds/fog.

.Wednesday...MVFR and IFR/lower (coastal terminals) conditions
possible via morning fog/low clouds and showers/isolated tstms.

.Wednesday afternoon through Friday morning...VFR.

.Friday night...MVFR or IFR conditions possible in showers/tstms.

.Saturday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A weak surface trough moves through the waters tonight with the
chance of scattered showers. A cold front approaches Tuesday and
moves into the waters Tuesday night and east Wednesday. Southerly
winds will precede the cold frontal passage and occasional gusts
on the ocean waters may approach small craft levels into early
this evening and Tuesday, especially west of Fire Island Inlet.
Otherwise winds and seas will remain below advisory levels tonight
through Tuesday night.

The pressure gradient is expected to remain rather weak through the
rest of the forecast period. As such, expect seas and winds to
remain below small craft advisory thresholds.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Widespread significant rainfall is not anticipated through
the period. However, scattered showers and thunderstorms may
produce locally heavy downpours Tuesday night through Wednesday.
This could result in minor nuisance flooding.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MET
NEAR TERM...JMC/MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...JC/MET
HYDROLOGY...JC/MET




000
FXUS61 KOKX 280019
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
819 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak trough moves across the region tonight. A cold front
approaches Tuesday and moves into the area Tuesday night, and
through the area Wednesday. The front moves farther offshore
Wednesday night. Weak high pressure returns for Thursday through
Friday. Another cold front then approaches and passes through late
Friday night into Saturday. High pressure builds in behind the
front Sunday and Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A weak surface trough moves into the area this evening and late
tonight while slowly dissipating. Heights continue to fall slowly
as a long wave upper trough moves into the Great Lakes region.
Weak lift is accompanying the trough with little surface or mixed
layer CAPE. Also, instability is minimal with the best instability
across the lower Hudson Valley. So will not mention any thunder
tonight. As the area of showers moves farther to the east and
south through tonight, expect coverage to decrease. So, begin with
likely pops mainly across the western zones and lower to slight
chance late tonight. With increased low level moisture and a
southerly flow a marine layer will be in place. Stratus was
developing during the afternoon, and will become widespread
tonight.

There is a moderate risk for the development of rip currents at
Atlantic Ocean beaches through early this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The longwave upper trough continues to dig into the eastern states
Tuesday and Tuesday night with additional energy rotating through
the trough. By 12Z Wednesday the trough axis still remains to the
west, through the eastern Great Lakes and into the Ohio Valley.
Gulf of Mexico moisture is drawn up into the area through the
period with increasing low and mid level moisture. A more stable
marine layer remains in place and will limit the threat of
thunderstorms. However, inland instability increases Tuesday
afternoon and into the evening. Cape will be limited, however, a
few stronger thunderstorms will be possible, especially across the
lower Hudson Valley. The storm prediction center has a slight risk
area into portions of Orange county, but will not mention any
enhanced wording at this time as the better chances for the
stronger storms will be to the west.

There is a moderate risk for the development of rip currents at
Atlantic Ocean beaches.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The cold front will likely be over the eastern zones Wednesday
morning. It will slowly push offshore through the day as it
dissipates. Its eastward progression could be slowed down by a weak
wave of low pressure attempting to form along the front. Thinking is
that chances of showers and thunderstorms will be primarily over the
eastern zones during the morning. Then in the afternoon and early
evening, PVA and destabilization could bring a shower or storm to
the rest of the forecast area.

High pressure brings dry weather on Thursday and Thursday night. For
Friday, a pre-frontal trough brings low chances of showers and
storms. The trailing cold front moves in Friday night, when
overall better chances occur.

It appears that this cold front will be slow to push offshore, so
low chances of showers and storms have been left in for eastern
sections Saturday morning. The front eventually sags to the south as
the upper flow aloft becomes more cyclonic Saturday night into
Sunday. ECMWF, which has been a northern outlier with a wave of low
pressure forming along the front, has trended farther south/drier
with this feature and associated precipitation. Will still leave in a
slight chance for the southern zones for this period until
confidence in dry weather increases further. High pressure otherwise
builds in from the northwest on Monday with dry conditions.

Temperatures through the long term period will be generally near
normal.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A weak low pressure trough will approach tonight, then a cold
front will approach on Tuesday...crossing Tuesday night into
Wednesday.

Gusty s/se winds gradually weaken through the late
evening...around 5 to 10 kt overnight...increasing to 10 to 15 kt
Tue afternoon. If breaks of sunshine develop winds for coastal
terminals could be around 5 kt stronger than forecast...with gusts
20 to 25 kt.

Low clouds likely to develop this evening at NYC and coastal
terminals, with MVFR cigs to start, then IFR overnight...lifr
possible for KGON/KISP. MVFR cigs expected to develop for
terminals to the north/west overnight.

IFR likely...possibly LIFR...across eastern terminals through the
day. Potential for KJFK/KLGA/KHPN to remain IFR all day. For NJ
terminals and terminals to the north/west...improvement to mvfr
likely in the afternoon. Low chance of a thunderstorm in the late
afternoon/evening for NYC/NJ metro terminals and terminals to the
north/west.

     NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: Initial timing of MVFR and then IFR cigs
tonight still a little uncertain. Potential for ifr cigs to
remain through the day. Low prob of tsra in late afternoon.
Southerly wind gusts of 20-25 kt possible tue afternoon if partial
sunshine materialize.

KLGA TAF Comments: Initial timing of MVFR cigs tonight could be
off by 1 to 2 hrs. Potential for ifr cigs late tonight and to
remain through the day. Low prob of tsra in late afternoon.
Southerly wind gusts of 20-25 kt possible Tue afternoon if
partial sunshine materialize.

KEWR TAF Comments: Initial timing of MVFR cigs tonight could be
off by 1 to 2 hrs. Low prob of tsra in late afternoon. occasional
Se wind gusts of 15 to 20 kt possible Tue afternoon if partial
sunshine materialize.

KTEB TAF Comments: Initial timing of MVFR cigs tonight could be
off by 1 to 2 hrs. Low prob of tsra in late afternoon. Occasional
S wind gusts of 15 to 20 kt possible Tue afternoon if partial
sunshine materialize.

KHPN TAF Comments: Initial timing of MVFR and then IFR/LIFR cigs
tonight could be off by 1 to 2 hrs. IFR cigs possible to remain through
the day. Low prob of tsra in late afternoon. Occasional southerly
wind gusts of 15-20 kt possible Tue afternoon if partial sunshine
materialize.

KISP TAF Comments: Initial timing of MVFR and then IFR/LIFR cigs
tonight could be off by 1 to 2 hrs. IFR or lower cigs likely to
remain through the day. Southerly wind gusts of 15-20 kt possible
Tue afternoon if partial sunshine materialize.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.Tuesday night...MVFR and IFR/lower (coastal terminals)
conditions likely in showers/isolated tstms and/or low clouds/fog.

.Wednesday...MVFR and IFR/lower (coastal terminals) conditions
possible via morning fog/low clouds and showers/isolated tstms.

.Wednesday afternoon through Friday morning...VFR.

.Friday night...MVFR or IFR conditions possible in showers/tstms.

.Saturday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A weak surface trough moves through the waters tonight with the
chance of scattered showers. A cold front approaches Tuesday and
moves into the waters Tuesday night and east Wednesday. Southerly
winds will precede the cold frontal passage and occasional gusts
on the ocean waters may approach small craft levels into early
this evening and Tuesday, especially west of Fire Island Inlet.
Otherwise winds and seas will remain below advisory levels tonight
through Tuesday night.

The pressure gradient is expected to remain rather weak through the
rest of the forecast period. As such, expect seas and winds to
remain below small craft advisory thresholds.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Widespread significant rainfall is not anticipated through
the period. However, scattered showers and thunderstorms may
produce locally heavy downpours Tuesday night through Wednesday.
This could result in minor nuisance flooding.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MET
NEAR TERM...JMC/MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...JC/MET
HYDROLOGY...JC/MET




000
FXUS61 KBOX 272323
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
723 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains in control into Tuesday. A cool front will
slowly approach the region, bringing periods of showers and
thunderstorms late tonight through Wednesday. This front will
push offshore Wednesday night. High pressure then brings dry
seasonable weather for late this week. Another cold front may
bring more showers and thunderstorms around Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
7 am update...
Areas of low clouds have advanced from offshore ahead of deck of
mid-upper clouds associated with a weakening rain shield. This
suggests mainly cloudy conditions overnight. Risk for rain is
non-zero everywhere as the weakened pre-frontal trof moves
through. Will highlight mainly chance pops from W-E through
midnight local. Otherwise, higher dwpts suggest a slightly more
sticky night and higher risk for areas of fog to develop later,
especially where any rain falls.

Previous discussion...

The main issue this afternoon is the abundance of low level dry
air, as evidenced by 20-25 degree F dew point depressions. A band
of showers was just west of MA early this afternoon, but will
likely struggle to make much progress east as a solid band. Have
tweaked rainfall chances this afternoon and evening. The most
likely area for showers through 4 pm will be across northwest MA.

Expecting lower levels to moisten tonight. With a pre-frontal
trough moving eastward, it may be enough to trigger some overnight
showers, especially late tonight. Guidance continues to indicate
precipitable water values between 1.50-2.00 inches. Thus, locally
heavy rainfall will be possible, once the low level dry air is
overcome.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Southern New England anticipated to remain in the warm sector
ahead of a cold front through Tuesday Night. This will mean a
continuing southerly flow, increasing dew points, and a greater
chance for showers. It appears the most likely period will be from
Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night.

Besides the showers, thunderstorms will also be a concern. Model
soundings are not that gung ho from an instability standpoint. If
we wind up with fewer clouds than current expectations,
instability could wind up becoming more potent. The timing would
also be a factor against widespread strong to severe
thunderstorms, with the event occurring mainly at night.

Seasonable temperatures through this period, albeit humid
conditions continue.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Highlights...

  * Showers/thunderstorms end Wednesday
  * Seasonable Thursday and Friday.
  * Another risk for showers and storms, late friday and the
    weekend.

Overview and model preferences...
PNA remains strongly positive through much of the long term with
negative EPO. Therefore, the reflection across the CONUS remains
nearly unchanged through the period. This is also partially thanks
to a rex-type block with PACNW vortex leading to building ridge
across the northern prairies, culminating in persistent longwave
trof across the northeast. An initial shortwave will be exiting
Wed along with an attendant cold front leading to a brief period
of weak ridging until secondary shortwave from Hudson Bay
reinforces the longwave trof by late in the week. This trof does
take on a slight negative tilt suggesting a slightly stronger
system, however the bulk of the jet forcing shifts into the Boreal
forest regions of Canada. Therefore, the generally dry with only a
risk for spot showers/storms are expected to continue through this
long term cycle. Deterministic guidance is generally in good
enough agreement that a blend should still work fine as a starting
point.

Details...

Wed...
Cold front will be moving through the region and continuing to
weaken as it parallels steering flow aloft. Remnant shra and even
an isolated T-storm can`t be ruled out until the front clears the
region fully, however noting a significant drop in PWATs from 1.5
inches to an inch or less through the day. The sounding reflects
this drying and suggests some stabilization with subsidence
inversion development. Therefore, in spite of the slow movement of
the front, precip chances will wain through the day. H85 temps
near +12C should still lead to temperatures in the mid 80s.

Thu...
Dry wx prevails under weak ridging with front settling offshore.
H85 temps still near +12C, so another day with highs in the 80s
and lows dropping back into the upper 50s and low 60s is expected.

Fri into Sun...
More significant differences here between available guidance,
including the ensembles. Cold front will sweep through the region
connected to low pres moving across ON/QC. Best forcing remains N,
however decreased stability coincident with increase in PWATs back
to nearly 1.5 inches suggest increasing risk for diurnally driven
shra/tstorms. How quickly and ultimately how far the front moves
offshore will define how long into Saturday this risk lasts.
Secondary frontal wave development also possible, with the ECMWF
leading the charge for Sun, suggesting some rain across the region
from the S. Will maintain a low risk, but with settling trof, it
may remain far enough offshore for little impact. Either case, a
relatively unsettled period.

Early next week...
Another round of weak ridging within the longwave trof suggests a
return to dry wx and seasonable temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Tuesday Night/...

Tonight...Moderate Confidence.
Mainly VFR. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms move
into central and western areas through 04Z, with MVFR-IFR
CIGS/VSBYS. Low chance for LIFR CIGS in stratus/fog across
portions of western MA and northern CT. Some stratus expansion
likely overnight, moving north from the south coast where it
currently resides.

Tuesday...Moderate confidence. Any low clouds and fog with patchy
MVFR-IFR conditions should dissipate by 14Z. Will see MVFR-IFR
conditions in scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly away
from the coastal plain during the afternoon.

Tuesday night...Moderate confidence. VFR with areas of MVFR in
numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms.

KBOS TAF...High confidence. VFR. S winds increase today, gusting up
to around 20 kts during the afternoon hours.

KBDL TAF...High confidence. VFR. Low to moderate chance for MVFR-
IFR CIGS/VSBYS late tonight in low clouds/fog.

Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/...

Wednesday...Moderate confidence

VFR with areas of MVFR in morning showers and thunderstorms. Areas
of IFR possible in fog and low clouds especially in the morning.
South winds gusting to 20 knots will shift from the West after the
cold front moves through.

Thursday-Saturday...Moderate confidence

VFR. North winds become variable Thursday, then from the south
Friday.  Showers/tstms will develop over New York State, and may
move into Southern New England Friday evening and night. These
showers and storms would have areas of MVFR cigs/vsbys.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Tuesday Night/...
High overall confidence. Expecting relatively tranquil boating
conditions across most of the coastal waters. South to southwest
wind gusts should stay less than 25 kt. Seas expected to stay 4
feet or less, most of the time. Some rough seas around 5 feet
possible across the outer coastal waters east of MA this
afternoon. This seas should diminish some this evening.

The other issue will be the possibility of poor visibility late
tonight. Increasingly humid air moving over the relatively colder
water, could lead to areas of fog. Not as confident in this
particular aspect of the forecast. This potential will need to be
watched overnight.

Scattered showers, and perhaps a few isolated thunderstorms,
should eventually impact the coastal waters, mainly Tuesday night
into Wednesday.

Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/...

Wednesday...Moderate confidence.

Showers and thunderstorms cross the waters with south wind gusts
near 20 knots at times. Winds shift from the west as a cold front
crosses the waters. Low vsbys possible ahead of the cold front in
showers and storms as well as in fog. No headlines planned at this
time.

Thursday-Saturday...Moderate confidence.

High pressure builds over the waters Thursday and moves off to the
east Friday.  A cold front approaches from the west Friday night.
Winds and seas should remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria.
Scattered showers/thunderstorms possible Friday night as the cold
front approaches.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ250.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Belk/Doody
NEAR TERM...Belk/Doody
SHORT TERM...Belk
LONG TERM...Doody
AVIATION...Belk/Doody
MARINE...Belk/Doody




000
FXUS61 KBOX 272323
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
723 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains in control into Tuesday. A cool front will
slowly approach the region, bringing periods of showers and
thunderstorms late tonight through Wednesday. This front will
push offshore Wednesday night. High pressure then brings dry
seasonable weather for late this week. Another cold front may
bring more showers and thunderstorms around Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
7 am update...
Areas of low clouds have advanced from offshore ahead of deck of
mid-upper clouds associated with a weakening rain shield. This
suggests mainly cloudy conditions overnight. Risk for rain is
non-zero everywhere as the weakened pre-frontal trof moves
through. Will highlight mainly chance pops from W-E through
midnight local. Otherwise, higher dwpts suggest a slightly more
sticky night and higher risk for areas of fog to develop later,
especially where any rain falls.

Previous discussion...

The main issue this afternoon is the abundance of low level dry
air, as evidenced by 20-25 degree F dew point depressions. A band
of showers was just west of MA early this afternoon, but will
likely struggle to make much progress east as a solid band. Have
tweaked rainfall chances this afternoon and evening. The most
likely area for showers through 4 pm will be across northwest MA.

Expecting lower levels to moisten tonight. With a pre-frontal
trough moving eastward, it may be enough to trigger some overnight
showers, especially late tonight. Guidance continues to indicate
precipitable water values between 1.50-2.00 inches. Thus, locally
heavy rainfall will be possible, once the low level dry air is
overcome.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Southern New England anticipated to remain in the warm sector
ahead of a cold front through Tuesday Night. This will mean a
continuing southerly flow, increasing dew points, and a greater
chance for showers. It appears the most likely period will be from
Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night.

Besides the showers, thunderstorms will also be a concern. Model
soundings are not that gung ho from an instability standpoint. If
we wind up with fewer clouds than current expectations,
instability could wind up becoming more potent. The timing would
also be a factor against widespread strong to severe
thunderstorms, with the event occurring mainly at night.

Seasonable temperatures through this period, albeit humid
conditions continue.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Highlights...

  * Showers/thunderstorms end Wednesday
  * Seasonable Thursday and Friday.
  * Another risk for showers and storms, late friday and the
    weekend.

Overview and model preferences...
PNA remains strongly positive through much of the long term with
negative EPO. Therefore, the reflection across the CONUS remains
nearly unchanged through the period. This is also partially thanks
to a rex-type block with PACNW vortex leading to building ridge
across the northern prairies, culminating in persistent longwave
trof across the northeast. An initial shortwave will be exiting
Wed along with an attendant cold front leading to a brief period
of weak ridging until secondary shortwave from Hudson Bay
reinforces the longwave trof by late in the week. This trof does
take on a slight negative tilt suggesting a slightly stronger
system, however the bulk of the jet forcing shifts into the Boreal
forest regions of Canada. Therefore, the generally dry with only a
risk for spot showers/storms are expected to continue through this
long term cycle. Deterministic guidance is generally in good
enough agreement that a blend should still work fine as a starting
point.

Details...

Wed...
Cold front will be moving through the region and continuing to
weaken as it parallels steering flow aloft. Remnant shra and even
an isolated T-storm can`t be ruled out until the front clears the
region fully, however noting a significant drop in PWATs from 1.5
inches to an inch or less through the day. The sounding reflects
this drying and suggests some stabilization with subsidence
inversion development. Therefore, in spite of the slow movement of
the front, precip chances will wain through the day. H85 temps
near +12C should still lead to temperatures in the mid 80s.

Thu...
Dry wx prevails under weak ridging with front settling offshore.
H85 temps still near +12C, so another day with highs in the 80s
and lows dropping back into the upper 50s and low 60s is expected.

Fri into Sun...
More significant differences here between available guidance,
including the ensembles. Cold front will sweep through the region
connected to low pres moving across ON/QC. Best forcing remains N,
however decreased stability coincident with increase in PWATs back
to nearly 1.5 inches suggest increasing risk for diurnally driven
shra/tstorms. How quickly and ultimately how far the front moves
offshore will define how long into Saturday this risk lasts.
Secondary frontal wave development also possible, with the ECMWF
leading the charge for Sun, suggesting some rain across the region
from the S. Will maintain a low risk, but with settling trof, it
may remain far enough offshore for little impact. Either case, a
relatively unsettled period.

Early next week...
Another round of weak ridging within the longwave trof suggests a
return to dry wx and seasonable temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Tuesday Night/...

Tonight...Moderate Confidence.
Mainly VFR. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms move
into central and western areas through 04Z, with MVFR-IFR
CIGS/VSBYS. Low chance for LIFR CIGS in stratus/fog across
portions of western MA and northern CT. Some stratus expansion
likely overnight, moving north from the south coast where it
currently resides.

Tuesday...Moderate confidence. Any low clouds and fog with patchy
MVFR-IFR conditions should dissipate by 14Z. Will see MVFR-IFR
conditions in scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly away
from the coastal plain during the afternoon.

Tuesday night...Moderate confidence. VFR with areas of MVFR in
numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms.

KBOS TAF...High confidence. VFR. S winds increase today, gusting up
to around 20 kts during the afternoon hours.

KBDL TAF...High confidence. VFR. Low to moderate chance for MVFR-
IFR CIGS/VSBYS late tonight in low clouds/fog.

Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/...

Wednesday...Moderate confidence

VFR with areas of MVFR in morning showers and thunderstorms. Areas
of IFR possible in fog and low clouds especially in the morning.
South winds gusting to 20 knots will shift from the West after the
cold front moves through.

Thursday-Saturday...Moderate confidence

VFR. North winds become variable Thursday, then from the south
Friday.  Showers/tstms will develop over New York State, and may
move into Southern New England Friday evening and night. These
showers and storms would have areas of MVFR cigs/vsbys.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Tuesday Night/...
High overall confidence. Expecting relatively tranquil boating
conditions across most of the coastal waters. South to southwest
wind gusts should stay less than 25 kt. Seas expected to stay 4
feet or less, most of the time. Some rough seas around 5 feet
possible across the outer coastal waters east of MA this
afternoon. This seas should diminish some this evening.

The other issue will be the possibility of poor visibility late
tonight. Increasingly humid air moving over the relatively colder
water, could lead to areas of fog. Not as confident in this
particular aspect of the forecast. This potential will need to be
watched overnight.

Scattered showers, and perhaps a few isolated thunderstorms,
should eventually impact the coastal waters, mainly Tuesday night
into Wednesday.

Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/...

Wednesday...Moderate confidence.

Showers and thunderstorms cross the waters with south wind gusts
near 20 knots at times. Winds shift from the west as a cold front
crosses the waters. Low vsbys possible ahead of the cold front in
showers and storms as well as in fog. No headlines planned at this
time.

Thursday-Saturday...Moderate confidence.

High pressure builds over the waters Thursday and moves off to the
east Friday.  A cold front approaches from the west Friday night.
Winds and seas should remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria.
Scattered showers/thunderstorms possible Friday night as the cold
front approaches.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ250.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Belk/Doody
NEAR TERM...Belk/Doody
SHORT TERM...Belk
LONG TERM...Doody
AVIATION...Belk/Doody
MARINE...Belk/Doody




000
FXUS61 KALY 272322
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
722 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak front will exit the region tonight. A stronger cold front
will track through our region Tuesday afternoon and night.
Isolated showers are expected tonight with more widespread showers
and thunderstorms Tuesday and Tuesday night. High pressure will
then build in from the Midwest through the day Wednesday, with dry
weather returning through the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Band of showers is exiting the southern most counties in the next
hour. Much of the Mohawk Valley and Adirondacks have cleared.
Slowing eastward movement of line of showers...residual llvl
moisture...will result in this clearing decelerating...and lower
clouds forming in many areas. Where the western edge of the
clearing sets up later tonight is a bit of a question...as light
winds and a mostly clear sky could help temperatures to fall more
in those clearing areas than areas that stay cloudy.

Surface dew points are rising in areas near the band of rain...but
in western and central NY...where it has cleared...dew points
have fallen due to the mixing going on out there. So...lows around
60 to lower 60s in western and northern areas where the best
chances for some clearing exist...and lows in the mid to upper 60s
in eastern NY and Western New England...where there should be more
clouds and fewer breaks in the clouds. If the clearing line makes
more eastward progress...the forecast will have to be adjusted
through tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Upper energy north of the Great Lakes and the associated cold
front making steady progress east and an axis of instability ahead
of the cold front. Some sun is expected at least in western areas
Tuesday morning...and how far east sees some sun depends on how
the band of clouds over us evolves through the night. Once we
reach convective temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s...most
areas should see more clouds than sun by midday...with showers and
thunderstorms developing over central NY..then tracking through
eastern NY and Western New England in the afternoon through the
evening.

There is a good consensus in guidance that an axis of decent
instability sets up ahead of the cold front...mainly due to
relatively high surface dew points and not so much due to hot
surface temperatures. However...the high dew points over the Great
Lakes to western New York at model initialization time this
morning have mixed out to lower levels this afternoon.
So...surface dew points tomorrow will have a big influence on
severe weather potential...and will make the difference between
700-1000 j/kg CAPES and 1000-2000 j/kg CAPES.

There is a slight risk of severe weather...and as long as dew
points rise and translate into decent instability...initial
thunderstorm updrafts will pulse up strongly...with potential
marginal severe hail and winds. As thunderstorms track east...new
updrafts will again pulse up from time to time with the potential
for brief scattered marginally severe hail and winds.

The low level shear and upper jet/upper dynamics are relatively
weak but there is a decent boundary layer thermal gradient along
the cold front for some frontogenetic convergence. So...putting
the possibility for small hail and gusty winds into the forecast
Tuesday afternoon and evening. There could be some locally heavy
rain...with the relatively weak steering flow...if storms can
train. It has been a bit dry in our region...so any flash flood
threat is very low but will just have to keep an eye out for
training thunderstorms for some localized nuisance ponding of
water in some areas. Highs Tuesday in the mid 70s to lower 80s.

Lingering shower activity Tuesday night as winds shift to west and
northwest and by daybreak Wednesday...any isolated showers should
be over eastern NY and New England. The isolated showers supported
by lagging upper energy should exit through the afternoon...with
improving sky cover through the day in all areas. Highs Wednesday
in the mid 70s to lower 80s. Much more sun and dryer weather
Thursday with highs in the lower to mid 80s...but mid to upper
70s in higher terrain.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Not much change from the previous long term forecast package as a
rather persistent northwest flow regime will reestablish itself
heading into the holiday weekend.

We begin the period with a surface ridge and southwest flow regime
aloft with warm and a bit humid conditions ahead of a cold front
approaching the Great Lakes region.  Global models are in good
agreement with the synoptic pattern as we will retain the chance for
showers and thunderstorms in the forecast heading into Friday.

The passage of the cold front will usher in a bit cooler but
noticeably drier air mass for the weekend with mainly dry conditions.
There are some hints of a weak wave moving southeast toward the St
Lawrence Valley and Adirondack Park on Sunday where we will place a
slight chance wording.

Highs will generally range between 75-85F and overnight lows mainly
into the 50s.

A quick look into Independence Holiday forecast, dry and seasonable
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Showers will be exiting the region next hour or so. Overnight,
combination from some rainfall earlier along with higher surface
dewpoints will lead toward lower CIGS and VIS well into MVFR
flight categories. Now if enough breaks in the clouds were to
occur and winds decouple, IFR conditions will be possible with fog
and/or low stratus.

Winds will generally be from the southerly direction around 10 KTS
through this afternoon then drop back to 5KTS or less tonight.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A weak front will exit the region tonight. A stronger cold front
will track through our region Tuesday afternoon and night.
Isolated showers are expected tonight with more widespread showers
and thunderstorms Tuesday and Tuesday night. High pressure will
then build in from the Midwest through the day Wednesday, with dry
weather returning through the end of the week.

RH will then increase to between 80 and 100 percent tonight.
Minimum RH values on Tuesday will be around 50 to 65
percent...then near 100 percent with scattered thunderstorms later
Tuesday afternoon evening. Minimum RH values on Wednesday around
45 to 60 percent.

Southerly winds will be 15 mph or less tonight. Winds on Tuesday
will be south-southwest at 15 mph or less. Winds will shift to
west and northwest by Wednesday at around 15 mph.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydro problems are expected over the next 5 days.
There will be showers and thunderstorms across the region on
Tuesday, ahead of and along a cold front. Rainfall totals could
reach one third to three quarters of an inch, with some isolated
higher amounts. Ponding of water will occur within any persistent
thunderstorms. A few lingering showers are possible Wednesday with
light rainfall amounts.

Dry weather will return by Thursday, with high pressure moving
back in across the region.

The latest drought monitor now has most of our region labeled
`Abnormally Dry` (D0). In fact, over the past 30 days, most of our
region is approximately 1-3 inches below normal in terms of
rainfall.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Snyder/NAS
NEAR TERM...Snyder/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM/Snyder
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS




000
FXUS61 KALY 272322
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
722 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak front will exit the region tonight. A stronger cold front
will track through our region Tuesday afternoon and night.
Isolated showers are expected tonight with more widespread showers
and thunderstorms Tuesday and Tuesday night. High pressure will
then build in from the Midwest through the day Wednesday, with dry
weather returning through the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Band of showers is exiting the southern most counties in the next
hour. Much of the Mohawk Valley and Adirondacks have cleared.
Slowing eastward movement of line of showers...residual llvl
moisture...will result in this clearing decelerating...and lower
clouds forming in many areas. Where the western edge of the
clearing sets up later tonight is a bit of a question...as light
winds and a mostly clear sky could help temperatures to fall more
in those clearing areas than areas that stay cloudy.

Surface dew points are rising in areas near the band of rain...but
in western and central NY...where it has cleared...dew points
have fallen due to the mixing going on out there. So...lows around
60 to lower 60s in western and northern areas where the best
chances for some clearing exist...and lows in the mid to upper 60s
in eastern NY and Western New England...where there should be more
clouds and fewer breaks in the clouds. If the clearing line makes
more eastward progress...the forecast will have to be adjusted
through tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Upper energy north of the Great Lakes and the associated cold
front making steady progress east and an axis of instability ahead
of the cold front. Some sun is expected at least in western areas
Tuesday morning...and how far east sees some sun depends on how
the band of clouds over us evolves through the night. Once we
reach convective temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s...most
areas should see more clouds than sun by midday...with showers and
thunderstorms developing over central NY..then tracking through
eastern NY and Western New England in the afternoon through the
evening.

There is a good consensus in guidance that an axis of decent
instability sets up ahead of the cold front...mainly due to
relatively high surface dew points and not so much due to hot
surface temperatures. However...the high dew points over the Great
Lakes to western New York at model initialization time this
morning have mixed out to lower levels this afternoon.
So...surface dew points tomorrow will have a big influence on
severe weather potential...and will make the difference between
700-1000 j/kg CAPES and 1000-2000 j/kg CAPES.

There is a slight risk of severe weather...and as long as dew
points rise and translate into decent instability...initial
thunderstorm updrafts will pulse up strongly...with potential
marginal severe hail and winds. As thunderstorms track east...new
updrafts will again pulse up from time to time with the potential
for brief scattered marginally severe hail and winds.

The low level shear and upper jet/upper dynamics are relatively
weak but there is a decent boundary layer thermal gradient along
the cold front for some frontogenetic convergence. So...putting
the possibility for small hail and gusty winds into the forecast
Tuesday afternoon and evening. There could be some locally heavy
rain...with the relatively weak steering flow...if storms can
train. It has been a bit dry in our region...so any flash flood
threat is very low but will just have to keep an eye out for
training thunderstorms for some localized nuisance ponding of
water in some areas. Highs Tuesday in the mid 70s to lower 80s.

Lingering shower activity Tuesday night as winds shift to west and
northwest and by daybreak Wednesday...any isolated showers should
be over eastern NY and New England. The isolated showers supported
by lagging upper energy should exit through the afternoon...with
improving sky cover through the day in all areas. Highs Wednesday
in the mid 70s to lower 80s. Much more sun and dryer weather
Thursday with highs in the lower to mid 80s...but mid to upper
70s in higher terrain.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Not much change from the previous long term forecast package as a
rather persistent northwest flow regime will reestablish itself
heading into the holiday weekend.

We begin the period with a surface ridge and southwest flow regime
aloft with warm and a bit humid conditions ahead of a cold front
approaching the Great Lakes region.  Global models are in good
agreement with the synoptic pattern as we will retain the chance for
showers and thunderstorms in the forecast heading into Friday.

The passage of the cold front will usher in a bit cooler but
noticeably drier air mass for the weekend with mainly dry conditions.
There are some hints of a weak wave moving southeast toward the St
Lawrence Valley and Adirondack Park on Sunday where we will place a
slight chance wording.

Highs will generally range between 75-85F and overnight lows mainly
into the 50s.

A quick look into Independence Holiday forecast, dry and seasonable
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Showers will be exiting the region next hour or so. Overnight,
combination from some rainfall earlier along with higher surface
dewpoints will lead toward lower CIGS and VIS well into MVFR
flight categories. Now if enough breaks in the clouds were to
occur and winds decouple, IFR conditions will be possible with fog
and/or low stratus.

Winds will generally be from the southerly direction around 10 KTS
through this afternoon then drop back to 5KTS or less tonight.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A weak front will exit the region tonight. A stronger cold front
will track through our region Tuesday afternoon and night.
Isolated showers are expected tonight with more widespread showers
and thunderstorms Tuesday and Tuesday night. High pressure will
then build in from the Midwest through the day Wednesday, with dry
weather returning through the end of the week.

RH will then increase to between 80 and 100 percent tonight.
Minimum RH values on Tuesday will be around 50 to 65
percent...then near 100 percent with scattered thunderstorms later
Tuesday afternoon evening. Minimum RH values on Wednesday around
45 to 60 percent.

Southerly winds will be 15 mph or less tonight. Winds on Tuesday
will be south-southwest at 15 mph or less. Winds will shift to
west and northwest by Wednesday at around 15 mph.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydro problems are expected over the next 5 days.
There will be showers and thunderstorms across the region on
Tuesday, ahead of and along a cold front. Rainfall totals could
reach one third to three quarters of an inch, with some isolated
higher amounts. Ponding of water will occur within any persistent
thunderstorms. A few lingering showers are possible Wednesday with
light rainfall amounts.

Dry weather will return by Thursday, with high pressure moving
back in across the region.

The latest drought monitor now has most of our region labeled
`Abnormally Dry` (D0). In fact, over the past 30 days, most of our
region is approximately 1-3 inches below normal in terms of
rainfall.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Snyder/NAS
NEAR TERM...Snyder/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM/Snyder
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS




000
FXUS61 KOKX 272235
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
635 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak trough moves across the region tonight. A cold front
approaches Tuesday and moves into the area Tuesday night, and
through the area Wednesday. The front moves farther offshore
Wednesday night. Weak high pressure returns for Thursday through
Friday. Another cold front then approaches and passes through late
Friday night into Saturday. High pressure builds in behind the
front Sunday and Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A weak surface trough moves into the area this evening and late
tonight while slowly dissipating. Heights continue to fall slowly
as a long wave upper trough moves into the Great Lakes region.
Weak lift is accompanying the trough with little surface or mixed
layer CAPE. Also, instability is minimal with the best instability
across the lower Hudson Valley. So will not mention any thunder
tonight. As the area of showers moves farther to the east and
south through tonight, expect coverage to decrease. So, begin with
likely pops mainly across the western zones and lower to slight
chance late tonight. With increased low level moisture and a
southerly flow a marine layer will be in place. Stratus was
developing during the afternoon, and will become widespread
tonight.

There is a moderate risk for the development of rip currents at
Atlantic Ocean beaches through early this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The longwave upper trough continues to dig into the eastern states
Tuesday and Tuesday night with additional energy rotating through
the trough. By 12Z Wednesday the trough axis still remains to the
west, through the eastern Great Lakes and into the Ohio Valley.
Gulf of Mexico moisture is drawn up into the area through the
period with increasing low and mid level moisture. A more stable
marine layer remains in place and will limit the threat of
thunderstorms. However, inland instability increases Tuesday
afternoon and into the evening. Cape will be limited, however, a
few stronger thunderstorms will be possible, especially across the
lower Hudson Valley. The storm prediction center has a slight risk
area into portions of Orange county, but will not mention any
enhanced wording at this time as the better chances for the
stronger storms will be to the west.

There is a moderate risk for the development of rip currents at
Atlantic Ocean beaches.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The cold front will likely be over the eastern zones Wednesday
morning. It will slowly push offshore through the day as it
dissipates. Its eastward progression could be slowed down by a weak
wave of low pressure attempting to form along the front. Thinking is
that chances of showers and thunderstorms will be primarily over the
eastern zones during the morning. Then in the afternoon and early
evening, PVA and destabilization could bring a shower or storm to
the rest of the forecast area.

High pressure brings dry weather on Thursday and Thursday night. For
Friday, a pre-frontal trough brings low chances of showers and
storms. The trailing cold front moves in Friday night, when
overall better chances occur.

It appears that this cold front will be slow to push offshore, so
low chances of showers and storms have been left in for eastern
sections Saturday morning. The front eventually sags to the south as
the upper flow aloft becomes more cyclonic Saturday night into
Sunday. ECMWF, which has been a northern outlier with a wave of low
pressure forming along the front, has trended farther south/drier
with this feature and associated precipitation. Will still leave in a
slight chance for the southern zones for this period until
confidence in dry weather increases further. High pressure otherwise
builds in from the northwest on Monday with dry conditions.

Temperatures through the long term period will be generally near
normal.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A weak low pressure trough will approach tonight, then a cold
front will approach on Tuesday.

* S flow late this afternoon just about at its expected peak, up
  to 30 kt at KJFK, 25 kt at KLGA/KISP, and 15-18 kt most
  elsewhere.

* Low clouds likely to move in quickly this evening at coastal
  terminals, with MVFR cigs to start, then IFR overnight. MVFR
  cigs expected north/west of there overnight except for KSWF, but
  timing north/west is uncertain, since those areas will be
  shielded from direct marine influence initially in southerly
  flow.

* Cigs should lift to MVFR by about 14Z-15Z.

     NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: A brief gust just over 30 kt possible late this
afternoon. Initial timing of MVFR and then IFR cigs tonight still
a little uncertain.

KLGA TAF Comments: A brief gust just over 25 kt possible late this
afternoon. Initial timing of MVFR cigs tonight still uncertain,
and could occur later than forecast.

KEWR TAF Comments: Occasional G15-18KT late this afternoon.
Initial timing of MVFR cigs tonight still uncertain, and could
occur later than forecast.

KTEB TAF Comments: Occasional G15-18KT late this afternoon.
Initial timing of MVFR cigs tonight still uncertain, and could
occur later than forecast.

KHPN TAF Comments: Initial timing of MVFR cigs tonight still a
little uncertain.

KISP TAF Comments: A brief gust just over 25 kt possible late this
afternoon. Initial timing of MVFR and then IFR cigs tonight still
a little uncertain.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.Tuesday afternoon and night...MVFR or IFR conditions likely in
showers/tstms and/or low clouds/fog.

.Wednesday...MVFR or IFR or lower conditions possible via morning
fog/low clouds and showers/tstms.

.Wednesday afternoon through Friday morning...VFR.

.Friday night...MVFR or IFR conditions possible in showers/tstms.

.Saturday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A weak surface trough moves through the waters tonight with the
chance of scattered showers. A cold front approaches Tuesday and
moves into the waters Tuesday night and east Wednesday. Southerly
winds will precede the cold frontal passage and occasional gusts
on the ocean waters may approach small craft levels into early
this evening and Tuesday, especially west of Fire Island Inlet.
Otherwise winds and seas will remain below advisory levels tonight
through Tuesday night.

The pressure gradient is expected to remain rather weak through the
rest of the forecast period. As such, expect seas and winds to
remain below small craft advisory thresholds.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Widespread significant rainfall is not anticipated through
the period. However, scattered showers and thunderstorms may
produce locally heavy downpours Tuesday night through Wednesday.
This could result in minor nuisance flooding.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MET
NEAR TERM...JMC/MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...Goodman
MARINE...JC/MET
HYDROLOGY...JC/MET




000
FXUS61 KALY 272033
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
433 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak front will exit the region tonight. A stronger cold front
will track through our region Tuesday afternoon and night.
Isolated showers are expected tonight with more widespread showers
and thunderstorms Tuesday and Tuesday night. High pressure will
then build in from the Midwest through the day Wednesday, with dry
weather returning through the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Band of showers...with some isolated thunderstorms in the eastern
Catskills and mid Hudson Valley...will be exiting through this
evening. There is a line of clearing into central NY with a clear
to mostly clear sky through much of the Great Lakes and OH valley.

There are indications in guidance that the showers will weaken
and decrease in coverage as they track into New England and the
band of clouds will in a sense stall because of convergence on the
western periphery of offshore upper energy. Where the western edge
of the clearing sets up later tonight is a bit of a question...as
light winds and a mostly clear sky could help temperatures to fall
more in those clearing areas than areas that stay cloudy.

Surface dew points are rising in areas near the band of rain...but
in western and central NY...where it has cleared...dew points
have fallen due to the mixing going on out there. So...lows around
60 to lower 60s in western and northern areas where the best
chances for some clearing exist...and lows in the mid to upper 60s
in eastern NY and Western New England...where there should be more
clouds and fewer breaks in the clouds. If the clearing line makes
more eastward progress...the forecast will have to be adjusted
through tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Upper energy north of the Great Lakes and the associated cold
front making steady progress east and an axis of instability ahead
of the cold front. Some sun is expected at least in western areas
Tuesday morning...and how far east sees some sun depends on how
the band of clouds over us evolves through the night. Once we
reach convective temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s...most
areas should see more clouds than sun by midday...with showers and
thunderstorms developing over central NY..then tracking through
eastern NY and Western New England in the afternoon through the
evening.

There is a good consensus in guidance that an axis of decent
instability sets up ahead of the cold front...mainly due to
relatively high surface dew points and not so much due to hot
surface temperatures. However...the high dew points over the Great
Lakes to western New York at model initialization time this
morning have mixed out to lower levels this afternoon.
So...surface dew points tomorrow will have a big influence on
severe weather potential...and will make the difference between
700-1000 j/kg CAPES and 1000-2000 j/kg CAPES.

There is a slight risk of severe weather...and as long as dew
points rise and translate into decent instability...initial
thunderstorm updrafts will pulse up strongly...with potential
marginal severe hail and winds. As thunderstorms track east...new
updrafts will again pulse up from time to time with the potential
for brief scattered marginally severe hail and winds.

The low level shear and upper jet/upper dynamics are relatively
weak but there is a decent boundary layer thermal gradient along
the cold front for some frontogenetic convergence. So...putting
the possibility for small hail and gusty winds into the forecast
Tuesday afternoon and evening. There could be some locally heavy
rain...with the relatively weak steering flow...if storms can
train. It has been a bit dry in our region...so any flash flood
threat is very low but will just have to keep an eye out for
training thunderstorms for some localized nuisance ponding of
water in some areas. Highs Tuesday in the mid 70s to lower 80s.

Lingering shower activity Tuesday night as winds shift to west and
northwest and by daybreak Wednesday...any isolated showers should
be over eastern NY and New England. The isolated showers supported
by lagging upper energy should exit through the afternoon...with
improving sky cover through the day in all areas. Highs Wednesday
in the mid 70s to lower 80s. Much more sun and dryer weather
Thursday with highs in the lower to mid 80s...but mid to upper
70s in higher terrain.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Not much change from the previous long term forecast package as a
rather persistent northwest flow regime will reestablish itself
heading into the holiday weekend.

We begin the period with a surface ridge and southwest flow regime
aloft with warm and a bit humid conditions ahead of a cold front
approaching the Great Lakes region.  Global models are in good
agreement with the synoptic pattern as we will retain the chance for
showers and thunderstorms in the forecast heading into Friday.

The passage of the cold front will usher in a bit cooler but
noticeably drier air mass for the weekend with mainly dry conditions.
There are some hints of a weak wave moving southeast toward the St
Lawrence Valley and Adirondack Park on Sunday where we will place a
slight chance wording.

Highs will generally range between 75-85F and overnight lows mainly
into the 50s.

A quick look into Independence Holiday forecast, dry and seasonable
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Band of showers was progressing across eastern New York yet flight
conditions remain VFR. In the wake of these showers the CIGS lower
a bit toward MVFR which seems this trend will continue into this
evening. Later tonight, combination from some rainfall earlier
along with higher surface dewpoints will lead toward lower CIGS
and VIS well into MVFR flight categories. Now if enough breaks in
the clouds were to occur and winds decouple, IFR conditions will
be possible with fog and/or low stratus.

Winds will generally be from the southerly direction around 10 KTS
through this afternoon then drop back to 5KTS or less tonight.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A weak front will exit the region tonight. A stronger cold front
will track through our region Tuesday afternoon and night.
Isolated showers are expected tonight with more widespread showers
and thunderstorms Tuesday and Tuesday night. High pressure will
then build in from the Midwest through the day Wednesday, with dry
weather returning through the end of the week.

RH will then increase to between 80 and 100 percent tonight.
Minimum RH values on Tuesday will be around 50 to 65
percent...then near 100 percent with scattered thunderstorms later
Tuesday afternoon evening. Minimum RH values on Wednesday around
45 to 60 percent.

Southerly winds will be 15 mph or less tonight. Winds on Tuesday
will be south-southwest at 15 mph or less. Winds will shift to
west and northwest by Wednesday at around 15 mph.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydro problems are expected over the next 5 days.
There will be showers and thunderstorms across the region on
Tuesday, ahead of and along a cold front. Rainfall totals could
reach one third to three quarters of an inch, with some isolated
higher amounts. Ponding of water will occur within any persistent
thunderstorms. A few lingering showers are possible Wednesday with
light rainfall amounts.

Dry weather will return by Thursday, with high pressure moving
back in across the region.

The latest drought monitor now has most of our region labeled
`Abnormally Dry` (D0). In fact, over the past 30 days, most of our
region is approximately 1-3 inches below normal in terms of
rainfall.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS




000
FXUS61 KALY 272029
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
429 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak front will exit the region tonight. A stronger cold front
will track through our region Tuesday afternoon and night.
Isolated showers are expected tonight with more widespread showers
and thunderstorms Tuesday and Tuesday night. High pressure will
then build in from the Midwest through the day Wednesday, with dry
weather returning through the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Band of showers...with some isolated thunderstorms in the eastern
Catskills and mid Hudson Valley...will be exiting through this
evening. There is a line of clearing into central NY with a clear
to mostly clear sky through much of the Great Lakes and OH valley.

There are indications in guidance that the showers will weaken
and decrease in coverage as they track into New England and the
band of clouds will in a sense stall because of convergence on the
western periphery of offshore upper energy. Where the western edge
of the clearing sets up later tonight is a bit of a question...as
light winds and a mostly clear sky could help temperatures to fall
more in those clearing areas than areas that stay cloudy.

Surface dew points are rising in areas near the band of rain...but
in western and central NY...where it has cleared...dew points
have fallen due to the mixing going on out there. So...lows around
60 to lower 60s in western and northern areas where the best
chances for some clearing exist...and lows in the mid to upper 60s
in eastern NY and Western New England...where there should be more
clouds and fewer breaks in the clouds. If the clearing line makes
more eastward progress...the forecast will have to be adjusted
through tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Upper energy north of the Great Lakes and the associated cold
front making steady progress east and an axis of instability ahead
of the cold front. Some sun is expected at least in western areas
Tuesday morning...and how far east sees some sun depends on how
the band of clouds over us evolves through the night. Once we
reach convective temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s...most
areas should see more clouds than sun by midday...with showers and
thunderstorms developing over central NY..then tracking through
eastern NY and Western New England in the afternoon through the
evening.

There is a good consensus in guidance that an axis of decent
instability sets up ahead of the cold front...mainly due to
relatively high surface dew points and not so much due to hot
surface temperatures. However...the high dew points over the Great
Lakes to western New York at model initialization time this
morning have mixed out to lower levels this afternoon.
So...surface dew points tomorrow will have a big influence on
severe weather potential...and will make the difference between
700-1000 j/kg CAPES and 1000-2000 j/kg CAPES.

There is a slight risk of severe weather...and as long as dew
points rise and translate into decent instability...initial
thunderstorm updrafts will pulse up strongly...with potential
marginal severe hail and winds. As thunderstorms track east...new
updrafts will again pulse up from time to time with the potential
for brief scattered marginally severe hail and winds.

The low level shear and upper jet/upper dynamics are relatively
weak but there is a decent boundary layer thermal gradient along
the cold front for some frontogenetic convergence. So...putting
the possibility for small hail and gusty winds into the forecast
Tuesday afternoon and evening. There could be some locally heavy
rain...with the relatively weak steering flow...if storms can
train. It has been a bit dry in our region...so any flash flood
threat is very low but will just have to keep an eye out for
training thunderstorms for some localized nuisance ponding of
water in some areas. Highs Tuesday in the mid 70s to lower 80s.

Lingering shower activity Tuesday night as winds shift to west and
northwest and by daybreak Wednesday...any isolated showers should
be over eastern NY and New England. The isolated showers supported
by lagging upper energy should exit through the afternoon...with
improving sky cover through the day in all areas. Highs Wednesday
in the mid 70s to lower 80s. Much more sun and dryer weather
Thursday with highs in the lower to mid 80s...but mid to upper
70s in higher terrain.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Not much change from the previous long term forecast package as a
rather persistent northwest flow regime will reestablish itself
heading into the holiday weekend.

We begin the period with a surface ridge and southwest flow regime
aloft with warm and a bit humid conditions ahead of a cold front
approaching the Great Lakes region.  Global models are in good
agreement with the synoptic pattern as we will retain the chance for
showers and thunderstorms in the forecast heading into Friday.

The passage of the cold front will usher in a bit cooler but
noticeably drier air mass for the weekend with mainly dry conditions.
There are some hints of a weak wave moving southeast toward the St
Lawrence Valley and Adirondack Park on Sunday where we will place a
slight chance wording.

Highs will generally range between 75-85F and overnight lows mainly
into the 50s.

A quick look into Independence Holiday forecast, dry and seasonable
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Band of showers was progressing across eastern New York yet flight
conditions remain VFR. In the wake of these showers the CIGS lower
a bit toward MVFR which seems this trend will continue into this
evening. Later tonight, combination from some rainfall earlier
along with higher surface dewpoints will lead toward lower CIGS
and VIS well into MVFR flight categories. Now if enough breaks in
the clouds were to occur and winds decouple, IFR conditions will
be possible with fog and/or low stratus.

Winds will generally be from the southerly direction around 10 KTS
through this afternoon then drop back to 5KTS or less tonight.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A weak front will exit the region tonight. A stronger cold front
will track through our region Tuesday afternoon and night.
Isolated showers are expected tonight with more widespread showers
and thunderstorms Tuesday and Tuesday night. High pressure will
then build in from the Midwest through the day Wednesday, with dry
weather returning through the end of the week.

RH will then increase to between 80 and 100 percent tonight.
Minimum RH values on Tuesday will be around 50 to 65
percent...then near 100 percent with scattered thunderstorms later
Tuesday afternoon evening. Minimum RH values on Wednesday around
45to 60 percent.

Southerly winds will be 15 mph or less tonight. Winds on Tuesday
will be south-southwest at 15 mph or less. Winds will shift to
west and northwest by Wednesday at around 15 mph.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydro problems are expected over the next 5 days.
There will be showers and thunderstorms across the region on
Tuesday, ahead of and along a cold front. Rainfall totals could
reach one third to three quarters of an inch, with some isolated
higher amounts. Ponding of water will occur within any persistent
thunderstorms. A few lingering showers are possible Wednesday with
light rainfall amounts.

Dry weather will return by Thursday, with high pressure moving
back in across the region.

The latest drought monitor now has most of our region labeled
`Abnormally Dry` (D0). In fact, over the past 30 days, most of our
region is approximately 1-3 inches below normal in terms of
rainfall.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS




000
FXUS61 KOKX 271950
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
350 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak trough moves across the region tonight. A cold front
approaches Tuesday and moves into the area Tuesday night, and
through the area Wednesday. The front moves farther offshore
Wednesday night. Weak high pressure returns for Thursday through
Friday. Another cold front then approaches and passes through late
Friday night into Saturday. High pressure builds in behind the
front Sunday and Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A weak surface trough moves into the area this evening and late
tonight while slowly dissipating. Heights continue to fall slowly
as a long wave upper trough moves into the Great Lakes region.
Weak lift is accompanying the trough with little surface or mixed
layer CAPE. Also, instability is minimal with the best instability
across the lower Hudson Valley. So will not mention any thunder
tonight. As the area of showers moves farther to the east and
south through tonight, expect coverage to decrease. So, begin with
chance pops mainly across the western zones and lower to slight
chance late tonight. With increased low level moisture and a
southerly flow a marine layer will be in place. Stratus was
developing during the afternoon, and will become widespread
tonight.

There is a moderate risk for the development of rip currents at
Atlantic ocean beaches through early this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The longwave upper trough continues to dig into the eastern states
Tuesday and Tuesday night with additional energy rotating through
the trough. By 12Z Wednesday the trough axis still remains to the
west, through the eastern Great Lakes and into the Ohio Valley.
Gulf of Mexico moisture is drawn up into the area through the
period with increasing low and mid level moisture. A more stable
marine layer remains in place and will limit the threat of
thunderstorms. However, inland instability increases Tuesday
afternoon and into the evening. Cape will be limited, however, a
few stronger thunderstorms will be possible, especially across the
lower Hudson Valley. The storm prediction center has a slight risk
area into portions of Orange county, but will not mention any
enhanced wording at this time as the better chances for the
stronger storms will be to the west.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The cold front will likely be over the eastern zones Wednesday
morning. It will slowly push offshore through the day as it
dissipates. Its eastward progression could be slowed down by a weak
wave of low pressure attempting to form along the front. Thinking is
that chances of showers and thunderstorms will be primarily over the
eastern zones during the morning. Then in the afternoon and early
evening, PVA and destabilization could bring a shower or storm to
the rest of the forecast area.

High pressure brings dry weather on Thursday and Thursday night. For
Friday, a pre-frontal trough brings low chances of showers and
storms. The trailing cold front moves in Friday night, when
overall better chances occur.

It appears that this cold front will be slow to push offshore, so
low chances of showers and storms have been left in for eastern
sections Saturday morning. The front eventually sags to the south as
the upper flow aloft becomes more cyclonic Saturday night into
Sunday. ECMWF, which has been a northern outlier with a wave of low
pressure forming along the front, has trended farther south/drier
with this feature and associated precipitation. Will still leave in a
slight chance for the southern zones for this period until
confidence in dry weather increases further. High pressure otherwise
builds in from the northwest on Monday with dry conditions.

Temperatures through the long term period will be generally near
normal.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A weak low pressure trough will approach tonight, then a cold
front will approach on Tuesday.

* S flow late this afternoon just about at its expected peak, up
  to 30 kt at KJFK, 25 kt at KLGA/KISP, and 15-18 kt most
  elsewhere.

* Low clouds likely to move in quickly this evening at coastal
  terminals, with MVFR cigs to start, then IFR overnight. MVFR
  cigs expected north/west of there overnight except for KSWF, but
  timing north/west is uncertain, since those areas will be
  shielded from direct marine influence initially in southerly
  flow.

* Cigs should lift to MVFR by about 14Z-15Z.

...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: A brief gust just over 30 kt possible late this
afternoon. Initial timing of MVFR and then IFR cigs tonight still
a little uncertain.

KLGA TAF Comments: A brief gust just over 25 kt possible late this
afternoon. Initial timing of MVFR cigs tonight still uncertain,
and could occur later than forecast.

KEWR TAF Comments: Occasional G15-18KT late this afternoon.
Initial timing of MVFR cigs tonight still uncertain, and could
occur later than forecast.

KTEB TAF Comments: Occasional G15-18KT late this afternoon.
Initial timing of MVFR cigs tonight still uncertain, and could
occur later than forecast.

KHPN TAF Comments: Initial timing of MVFR cigs tonight still a
little uncertain.

KISP TAF Comments: A brief gust just over 25 kt possible late this
afternoon. Initial timing of MVFR and then IFR cigs tonight still
a little uncertain.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.Tuesday afternoon and night...MVFR or IFR conditions likely in
showers/tstms and/or low clouds/fog.

.Wednesday...MVFR or IFR or lower conditions possible via morning
fog/low clouds and showers/tstms.

.Wednesday afternoon through Friday morning...VFR.

.Friday night...MVFR or IFR conditions possible in showers/tstms.

.Saturday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A weak surface trough moves through the waters tonight with the
chance of scattered showers. A cold front approaches Tuesday and
moves into the waters Tuesday night and east Wednesday. Southerly
winds will precede the cold frontal passage and occasional gusts
on the ocean waters may approach small craft levels into early
this evening and Tuesday, especially west of Fire Island Inlet.
Otherwise winds and seas will remain below advisory levels tonight
through Tuesday night.

The pressure gradient is expected to remain rather weak through the
rest of the forecast period. As such, expect seas and winds to
remain below small craft advisory thresholds.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Widespread significant rainfall is not anticipated through
the period. However, scattered showers and thunderstorms may
produce locally heavy downpours Tuesday night through Wednesday.
This could result in minor nuisance flooding.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MET
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...Goodman
MARINE...JC/MET
HYDROLOGY...JC/MET




000
FXUS61 KOKX 271950
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
350 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak trough moves across the region tonight. A cold front
approaches Tuesday and moves into the area Tuesday night, and
through the area Wednesday. The front moves farther offshore
Wednesday night. Weak high pressure returns for Thursday through
Friday. Another cold front then approaches and passes through late
Friday night into Saturday. High pressure builds in behind the
front Sunday and Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A weak surface trough moves into the area this evening and late
tonight while slowly dissipating. Heights continue to fall slowly
as a long wave upper trough moves into the Great Lakes region.
Weak lift is accompanying the trough with little surface or mixed
layer CAPE. Also, instability is minimal with the best instability
across the lower Hudson Valley. So will not mention any thunder
tonight. As the area of showers moves farther to the east and
south through tonight, expect coverage to decrease. So, begin with
chance pops mainly across the western zones and lower to slight
chance late tonight. With increased low level moisture and a
southerly flow a marine layer will be in place. Stratus was
developing during the afternoon, and will become widespread
tonight.

There is a moderate risk for the development of rip currents at
Atlantic ocean beaches through early this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The longwave upper trough continues to dig into the eastern states
Tuesday and Tuesday night with additional energy rotating through
the trough. By 12Z Wednesday the trough axis still remains to the
west, through the eastern Great Lakes and into the Ohio Valley.
Gulf of Mexico moisture is drawn up into the area through the
period with increasing low and mid level moisture. A more stable
marine layer remains in place and will limit the threat of
thunderstorms. However, inland instability increases Tuesday
afternoon and into the evening. Cape will be limited, however, a
few stronger thunderstorms will be possible, especially across the
lower Hudson Valley. The storm prediction center has a slight risk
area into portions of Orange county, but will not mention any
enhanced wording at this time as the better chances for the
stronger storms will be to the west.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The cold front will likely be over the eastern zones Wednesday
morning. It will slowly push offshore through the day as it
dissipates. Its eastward progression could be slowed down by a weak
wave of low pressure attempting to form along the front. Thinking is
that chances of showers and thunderstorms will be primarily over the
eastern zones during the morning. Then in the afternoon and early
evening, PVA and destabilization could bring a shower or storm to
the rest of the forecast area.

High pressure brings dry weather on Thursday and Thursday night. For
Friday, a pre-frontal trough brings low chances of showers and
storms. The trailing cold front moves in Friday night, when
overall better chances occur.

It appears that this cold front will be slow to push offshore, so
low chances of showers and storms have been left in for eastern
sections Saturday morning. The front eventually sags to the south as
the upper flow aloft becomes more cyclonic Saturday night into
Sunday. ECMWF, which has been a northern outlier with a wave of low
pressure forming along the front, has trended farther south/drier
with this feature and associated precipitation. Will still leave in a
slight chance for the southern zones for this period until
confidence in dry weather increases further. High pressure otherwise
builds in from the northwest on Monday with dry conditions.

Temperatures through the long term period will be generally near
normal.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A weak low pressure trough will approach tonight, then a cold
front will approach on Tuesday.

* S flow late this afternoon just about at its expected peak, up
  to 30 kt at KJFK, 25 kt at KLGA/KISP, and 15-18 kt most
  elsewhere.

* Low clouds likely to move in quickly this evening at coastal
  terminals, with MVFR cigs to start, then IFR overnight. MVFR
  cigs expected north/west of there overnight except for KSWF, but
  timing north/west is uncertain, since those areas will be
  shielded from direct marine influence initially in southerly
  flow.

* Cigs should lift to MVFR by about 14Z-15Z.

...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: A brief gust just over 30 kt possible late this
afternoon. Initial timing of MVFR and then IFR cigs tonight still
a little uncertain.

KLGA TAF Comments: A brief gust just over 25 kt possible late this
afternoon. Initial timing of MVFR cigs tonight still uncertain,
and could occur later than forecast.

KEWR TAF Comments: Occasional G15-18KT late this afternoon.
Initial timing of MVFR cigs tonight still uncertain, and could
occur later than forecast.

KTEB TAF Comments: Occasional G15-18KT late this afternoon.
Initial timing of MVFR cigs tonight still uncertain, and could
occur later than forecast.

KHPN TAF Comments: Initial timing of MVFR cigs tonight still a
little uncertain.

KISP TAF Comments: A brief gust just over 25 kt possible late this
afternoon. Initial timing of MVFR and then IFR cigs tonight still
a little uncertain.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.Tuesday afternoon and night...MVFR or IFR conditions likely in
showers/tstms and/or low clouds/fog.

.Wednesday...MVFR or IFR or lower conditions possible via morning
fog/low clouds and showers/tstms.

.Wednesday afternoon through Friday morning...VFR.

.Friday night...MVFR or IFR conditions possible in showers/tstms.

.Saturday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A weak surface trough moves through the waters tonight with the
chance of scattered showers. A cold front approaches Tuesday and
moves into the waters Tuesday night and east Wednesday. Southerly
winds will precede the cold frontal passage and occasional gusts
on the ocean waters may approach small craft levels into early
this evening and Tuesday, especially west of Fire Island Inlet.
Otherwise winds and seas will remain below advisory levels tonight
through Tuesday night.

The pressure gradient is expected to remain rather weak through the
rest of the forecast period. As such, expect seas and winds to
remain below small craft advisory thresholds.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Widespread significant rainfall is not anticipated through
the period. However, scattered showers and thunderstorms may
produce locally heavy downpours Tuesday night through Wednesday.
This could result in minor nuisance flooding.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MET
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...Goodman
MARINE...JC/MET
HYDROLOGY...JC/MET




000
FXUS61 KBOX 271937
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
337 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains in control into Tuesday. A cool front will
slowly approach the region, bringing periods of showers and
thunderstorms late tonight through Wednesday. This front will
push offshore Wednesday night. High pressure then brings dry
seasonable weather for late this week. Another cold front may
bring more showers and thunderstorms around Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
The main issue this afternoon is the abundance of low level dry
air, as evidenced by 20-25 degree F dew point depressions. A band
of showers was just west of MA early this afternoon, but will
likely struggle to make much progress east as a solid band. Have
tweaked rainfall chances this afternoon and evening. The most
likely area for showers through 4 pm will be across northwest MA.

Expecting lower levels to moisten tonight. With a pre-frontal
trough moving eastward, it may be enough to trigger some overnight
showers, especially late tonight. Guidance continues to indicate
precipitable water values between 1.50-2.00 inches. Thus, locally
heavy rainfall will be possible, once the low level dry air is
overcome.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Southern New England anticipated to remain in the warm sector
ahead of a cold front through Tuesday Night. This will mean a
continuing southerly flow, increasing dew points, and a greater
chance for showers. It appears the most likely period will be from
Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night.

Besides the showers, thunderstorms will also be a concern. Model
soundings are not that gung ho from an instability standpoint. If
we wind up with fewer clouds than current expectations,
instability could wind up becoming more potent. The timing would
also be a factor against widespread strong to severe
thunderstorms, with the event occurring mainly at night.

Seasonable temperatures through this period, albeit humid
conditions continue.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Highlights...

  * Showers/thunderstorms end Wednesday
  * Seasonable Thursday and Friday.
  * Another risk for showers and storms, late friday and the
    weekend.

Overview and model preferences...
PNA remains strongly positive through much of the long term with
negative EPO. Therefore, the reflection across the CONUS remains
nearly unchanged through the period. This is also partially thanks
to a rex-type block with PACNW vortex leading to building ridge
across the northern prairies, culminating in persistent longwave
trof across the northeast. An initial shortwave will be exiting
Wed along with an attendant cold front leading to a brief period
of weak ridging until secondary shortwave from Hudson Bay
reinforces the longwave trof by late in the week. This trof does
take on a slight negative tilt suggesting a slightly stronger
system, however the bulk of the jet forcing shifts into the Boreal
forest regions of Canada. Therefore, the generally dry with only a
risk for spot showers/storms are expected to continue through this
long term cycle. Deterministic guidance is generally in good
enough agreement that a blend should still work fine as a starting
point.

Details...

Wed...
Cold front will be moving through the region and continuing to
weaken as it parallels steering flow aloft. Remnant shra and even
an isolated T-storm can`t be ruled out until the front clears the
region fully, however noting a significant drop in PWATs from 1.5
inches to an inch or less through the day. The sounding reflects
this drying and suggests some stabilization with subsidence
inversion development. Therefore, in spite of the slow movement of
the front, precip chances will wain through the day. H85 temps
near +12C should still lead to temperatures in the mid 80s.

Thu...
Dry wx prevails under weak ridging with front settling offshore.
H85 temps still near +12C, so another day with highs in the 80s
and lows dropping back into the upper 50s and low 60s is expected.

Fri into Sun...
More significant differences here between available guidance,
including the ensembles. Cold front will sweep through the region
connected to low pres moving across ON/QC. Best forcing remains N,
however decreased stability coincident with increase in PWATs back
to nearly 1.5 inches suggest increasing risk for diurnally driven
shra/tstorms. How quickly and ultimately how far the front moves
offshore will define how long into Saturday this risk lasts.
Secondary frontal wave development also possible, with the ECMWF
leading the charge for Sun, suggesting some rain across the region
from the S. Will maintain a low risk, but with settling trof, it
may remain far enough offshore for little impact. Either case, a
relatively unsettled period.

Early next week...
Another round of weak ridging within the longwave trof suggests a
return to dry wx and seasonable temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Tuesday Night/...

Through 00z...High Confidence. VFR. S-SW winds continuing with gusts
up to 20-25 kt.

Tonight...Moderate Confidence. Mainly VFR. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms move into central and western areas,
mainly near or after midnight with MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS. Low chance
for LIFR CIGS in stratus/fog across portions of western MA and
northern CT. Thinking a lower risk for stratus and fog along the
south coast. including the Cape and islands. The issue there will
be the amount of low level dry air to overcome. Any saturated
layers expected to be quite shallow. This will need to be watched
closely overnight.

Tuesday...Moderate confidence. Any low clouds and fog with patchy
MVFR-IFR conditions should dissipate by 14Z. Will see MVFR-IFR
conditions in scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly away
from the coastal plain during the afternoon.

Tuesday night...Moderate confidence. VFR with areas of MVFR in
numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms.

KBOS TAF...High confidence. VFR. S winds increase today, gusting up
to around 20 kts during the afternoon hours.

KBDL TAF...High confidence. VFR. Low to moderate chance for MVFR-
IFR CIGS/VSBYS late tonight in low clouds/fog.

Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/...

Wednesday...Moderate confidence

VFR with areas of MVFR in morning showers and thunderstorms. Areas
of IFR possible in fog and low clouds especially in the morning.
South winds gusting to 20 knots will shift from the West after the
cold front moves through.

Thursday-Saturday...Moderate confidence

VFR. North winds become variable Thursday, then from the south
Friday.  Showers/tstms will develop over New York State, and may
move into Southern New England Friday evening and night. These
showers and storms would have areas of MVFR cigs/vsbys.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Tuesday Night/...
High overall confidence. Expecting relatively tranquil boating
conditions across most of the coastal waters. South to southwest
wind gusts should stay less than 25 kt. Seas expected to stay 4
feet or less, most of the time. Some rough seas around 5 feet
possible across the outer coastal waters east of MA this
afternoon. This seas should diminish some this evening.

The other issue will be the possibility of poor visibility late
tonight. Increasingly humid air moving over the relatively colder
water, could lead to areas of fog. Not as confident in this
particular aspect of the forecast. This potential will need to be
watched overnight.

Scattered showers, and perhaps a few isolated thunderstorms,
should eventually impact the coastal waters, mainly Tuesday night
into Wednesday.

Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/...

Wednesday...Moderate confidence.

Showers and thunderstorms cross the waters with south wind gusts
near 20 knots at times. Winds shift from the west as a cold front
crosses the waters. Low vsbys possible ahead of the cold front in
showers and storms as well as in fog. No headlines planned at this
time.

Thursday-Saturday...Moderate confidence.

High pressure builds over the waters Thursday and moves off to the
east Friday.  A cold front approaches from the west Friday night.
Winds and seas should remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria.
Scattered showers/thunderstorms possible Friday night as the cold
front approaches.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ250.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Belk/Doody
NEAR TERM...Belk
SHORT TERM...Belk
LONG TERM...Doody
AVIATION...Belk/Doody
MARINE...Belk/Doody




000
FXUS61 KBOX 271914
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
314 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains in control into Tuesday. A cool front will
slowly approach the region, bringing periods of showers and
thunderstorms late tonight through Wednesday. This front will
push offshore Wednesday night. High pressure then brings dry
seasonable weather for late this week. Another cold front may
bring more showers and thunderstorms around Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
The main issue this afternoon is the abundance of low level dry
air, as evidenced by 20-25 degree F dew point depressions. A band
of showers was just west of MA early this afternoon, but will
likely struggle to make much progress east as a solid band. Have
tweaked rainfall chances this afternoon and evening. The most
likely area for showers through 4 pm will be across northwest MA.

Expecting lower levels to moisten tonight. With a pre-frontal
trough moving eastward, it may be enough to trigger some overnight
showers, especially late tonight. Guidance continues to indicate
precipitable water values between 1.50-2.00 inches. Thus, locally
heavy rainfall will be possible, once the low level dry air is
overcome.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Southern New England anticipated to remain in the warm sector
ahead of a cold front through Tuesday Night. This will mean a
continuing southerly flow, increasing dew points, and a greater
chance for showers. It appears the most likely period will be from
Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night.

Besides the showers, thunderstorms will also be a concern. Model
soundings are not that gung ho from an instability standpoint. If
we wind up with fewer clouds than current expectations,
instability could wind up becoming more potent. The timing would
also be a factor against widespread strong to severe
thunderstorms, with the event occurring mainly at night.

Seasonable temperatures through this period, albeit humid
conditions continue.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Big Picture...

Longwave scale continues to show a ridge-west/trough-east pattern
over North America. This may shift east a little during the
holiday weekend. One shortwave rippling through this flow moves
across New England later Wednesday. A second moves down from
Canada and sweeps across New England next weekend.

Model mass fields are similar with the broad pattern through Friday.
There are differences in positioning of the cold front associated
with the first shortwave. The ECMWF is farthest west and the GGEM
farthest east. This means a consensus as to the broader forecast,
showers/tstms, but uncertainty regarding the details such as timing.
With the second shortwave, the GFS and ECMWF are similar while the
GGEM is slower and farther south. The mass field agreement and the
variations in details Wednesday favor a blend of model data.

Details...

Wednesday...

Shortwave over the Eastern Great Lakes digs over New England while
the associated surface cold front moves through New England
Wednesday. The upper flow through the shortwave will be SSW to NNE
across our area, almost parallel to the cold front. Until the
shortwave axis swings across our area and turns the upper flow
across the front, the cold front will move very slowly.

Upper jet flowing through the shortwave will provide dynamic support
for lift. Model data shows precipitable water values pooling along
and just ahead of the front with max values 1.6 to 1.8 inches. Three
of four models show total-totals in the upper 40s through
Wednesday afternoon in the area leading the cold front. Cross
sections show the moisture will be through a deep column. All of
this points to showers and possible thunderstorms. We will stay
with chance pops Wednesday.

Thursday through Saturday...

Weak high pressure builds over the region Thursday and lingers into
Friday. The second shortwave approaches with difluent flow aloft
Friday afternoon/evening and increasing precip water values toward
evening. Favorable instability remains to our west and northwest
during Friday but then moves across Southern New England Friday
night.

Timing on this shortwave and surface cold front will continue to
vary, but for now we will show chance pops for showers/tstms in
extreme western MA Friday afternoon and chance pops for most of the
area Friday night. Showers/thunder end from west to east Saturday
morning.

Temps aloft 13-15C should support max sfc temps in the low to mid
80s.

Sunday...

The Saturday cold front moves south of New England, but with long
range data suggesting it may stall to our south. In this scenario, a
low pressure wave would move along the front from the Ohio Valley
and pass south of us.  There is some potential for clouds and a
chance of showers for July 3rd, mostly along our South Coast with
diminishing likelihood to the north. This will need to be
monitored.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Tuesday Night/...

Through 00z...High Confidence. VFR. S-SW winds continuing with gusts
up to 20-25 kt.

Tonight...Moderate Confidence. Mainly VFR. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms move into central and western areas,
mainly near or after midnight with MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS. Low chance
for LIFR CIGS in stratus/fog across portions of western MA and
northern CT. Thinking a lower risk for stratus and fog along the
south coast. including the Cape and islands. The issue there will
be the amount of low level dry air to overcome. Any saturated
layers expected to be quite shallow. This will need to be watched
closely overnight.

Tuesday...Moderate confidence. Any low clouds and fog with patchy
MVFR-IFR conditions should dissipate by 14Z. Will see MVFR-IFR
conditions in scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly away
from the coastal plain during the afternoon.

Tuesday night...Moderate confidence. VFR with areas of MVFR in
numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms.

KBOS TAF...High confidence. VFR. S winds increase today, gusting up
to around 20 kts during the afternoon hours.

KBDL TAF...High confidence. VFR. Low to moderate chance for MVFR-
IFR CIGS/VSBYS late tonight in low clouds/fog.

Outlook /Wednesday through Friday/...

Wednesday...Moderate confidence

VFR with areas of MVFR in morning showers and thunderstorms. Areas
of IFR possible in fog and low clouds. South winds gusting to 20
knots will shift from the West after the cold front moves through.

Thursday-Friday...Moderate confidence

VFR. North winds become variable Thursday, then from the south
Friday.  Showers/tstms will develop over New York State, and may
move into Southern New England Friday evening and night. These
showers and storms would have areas of MVFR cigs/vsbys.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Tuesday Night/...
High overall confidence. Expecting relatively tranquil boating
conditions across most of the coastal waters. South to southwest
wind gusts should stay less than 25 kt. Seas expected to stay 4
feet or less, most of the time. Some rough seas around 5 feet
possible across the outer coastal waters east of MA this
afternoon. This seas should diminish some this evening.

The other issue will be the possibility of poor visibility late
tonight. Increasingly humid air moving over the relatively colder
water, could lead to areas of fog. Not as confident in this
particular aspect of the forecast. This potential will need to be
watched overnight.

Scattered showers, and perhaps a few isolated thunderstorms,
should eventually impact the coastal waters, mainly Tuesday night
into Wednesday.

Outlook /Wednesday through Friday/...

Wednesday...Moderate confidence.

Showers and thunderstorms cross the waters with south wind gusts
near 20 knots at times. Winds shift from the west as a cold front
crosses the waters. Low vsbys possible ahead of the cold front in
showers and storms as well as in fog. No headlines planned at this
time.

Thursday-Friday...Moderate confidence.

High pressure builds over the waters Thursday and moves off to the
east Friday.  A cold front approaches from the west Friday night.
Winds and seas should remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria.
Scattered showers/thunderstorms possible Friday night as the cold
front approaches.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ250.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/Belk
NEAR TERM...Belk
SHORT TERM...Belk
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/Belk
MARINE...WTB/Belk




000
FXUS61 KOKX 271824
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
224 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure weakens across the region through tonight as a cold
front well to the west slowly approaches. The cold front nears the
region Tuesday, and moves across Tuesday night into early
Wednesday. The front moves farther offshore Wednesday night. Weak
high pressure returns Thursday through Friday. Another cold front
approaches late Friday moving across Saturday and moving southeast
of the region by next Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Weak mid and low level forcing has resulted in clouds developing
across eastern Connecticut and eastern Long Island. In addition,
in an increasingly low level southerly flow stratus has begun to
develop. A weak surface trough was across eastern New York state
into northeastern Pennsylvania with a line of scattered showers
associated with the trough. Will continue with the chance and
slight chance pops for this afternoon.

The airmass will begin to become more humid as dew points rise
through the lower 60s this afternoon with south winds as highs as
15 to 20 mph at the coast.

There is a moderate risk for the development of rip currents at
Atlantic ocean beaches today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Mid level short wave trough passes through tonight with a few
showers possible. Next feature of interest will be a cold front
dropping SE across the Great Lakes tonight, approaching the NW
zones late tomorrow afternoon. Gradual height falls aloft and
increasing low-level moisture will allow for moderate instability
tomorrow afternoon, mainly across the interior. An onshore flow
near the coast will help to stabilize the airmass. The best chance
for isolated strong convection will be across the interior later
in the afternoon with CAPES over 1000 J/KG. Wind shear remains
weak, so not expecting any organization.

Conditions will be warm and muggy with dew points rising into the
upper 60s with with similar lows tonight. Highs on Tuesday may be
a degree or two cooler due to more cloud cover and continued
onshore flow. Coastal sections may have to contend with stratus
late tonight into Tuesday as the warm, moist air overruns the
cooler nearshore waters.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Upper level trough makes slow progress east across New England
Tuesday night through Wednesday. Associated PVA noted in most model
solutions traversing across the area through early Wednesday before
moving east.

This energy departs to the northeast as closed upper low moves
across Ontario Province late in the week, with a general trough
extending across the Great Lakes region toward the east. The closed
low moves east across Quebec Province, with lowering heights and
weak PVA moving across the northeast United States next weekend.

At the surface, a slow moving cold front approaches Tuesday evening,
with a wave of low pressure along the front to the west. The front
makes slow progress across the area Tuesday night, with another
frontal boundary lagging behind Wednesday before moving through
late. High pressure builds Thursday and Friday with another cold
front moving toward or through the area Saturday. Not too confident
in how far front moves for the latter portion of the weekend.

As for sensible weather, scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms are expected Tuesday night due to leftover moderate
instability, convergence along the front, upper level jet and PVA
aiding development. This chance continues overnight into Wednesday
due to continuation of upper support and cold front in the vicinity.
Would expect possible shower or thunderstorm development at any time
Tuesday night and Wednesday, mainly scattered in nature.

Dry weather expected Thursday and Friday with unsettled weather
returning next weekend.

Temperatures will average near normal, lower to middle 80s during
the day and 60s at night for the most part. Followed model blend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure off the Mid-Atlantic coast will continue to drift
east. A weak low pressure trough will approach tonight, then a
cold front will approach on Tuesday.

* Mainly VFR to start afternoon. Initial MVFR cigs at KISP should
  scatter by 20Z as dense mid level clouds move east and daytime
  heating/mixing resume.

* Still expect increasing S flow, except SSE at KEWR/KTEB. Gusts
  could peak around 30 kt at KJFK, 25 kt at KLGA/KISP, and 15-18
  kt most elsewhere.

* Low clouds likely to move in quickly this evening at coastal
  terminals, with MVFR cigs to start, then IFR overnight. MVFR
  cigs expected north/west of there overnight except for KSWF, but
  timing north/west is uncertain, since those areas will be
  shielded from direct marine influence initially in southerly
  flow.

* Cigs should lift to MVFR by about 14Z-15Z.

...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: Peak gusts around 30 kt this afternoon. Initial
timing of MVFR and then IFR cigs tonight still a little
uncertain.

KLGA TAF Comments: Peak gusts around 25 kt this afternoon. Initial
timing of MVFR cigs tonight still uncertain, and could occur
later than forecast.

KEWR TAF Comments: Occasional G15-18KT this afternoon. Initial
timing of MVFR cigs tonight still uncertain, and could occur
later than forecast.

KTEB TAF Comments: Occasional G15-18KT this afternoon. Initial
timing of MVFR cigs tonight still uncertain, and could occur
later than forecast.

KHPN TAF Comments: Initial timing of MVFR cigs tonight still a
little uncertain.

KISP TAF Comments: Peak gusts around 25 kt this afternoon. Initial
timing of MVFR and then IFR cigs tonight still a little uncertain.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.Tuesday afternoon and night...MVFR or IFR conditions likely in
showers/tstms and/or low clouds/fog.

.Wednesday...MVFR or IFR or lower conditions possible via morning
fog/low clouds and showers/tstms.

.Wednesday afternoon through Friday morning...VFR.

.Friday night...MVFR or IFR conditions possible in showers/tstms.

.Saturday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas forecast on track. No changes at this time.

As high pressure drifts east today, southerly winds will increase
this afternoon with occasional gusts to near small craft levels,
mainly west of Fire Island Inlet to near the mouth of New York
Harbor. Similar conditions are forecast on Tuesday. Otherwise,
winds and seas will remain below small craft levels on all the
waters.

A slow moving cold front passes across the waters Tuesday
night through Wednesday as high pressure builds for the late
week period. Overall, the pressure gradient remains rather weak
during this time period. As such, expect seas and winds to
remain below small craft advisory thresholds.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Widespread significant rainfall is not anticipated through
the period. However, scattered showers and thunderstorms may
produce locally heavy downpours Tuesday night through Wednesday.
This could result in minor nuisance flooding.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DW/PW
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...Goodman
MARINE...MET/DW/PW
HYDROLOGY...DW/PW




000
FXUS61 KOKX 271824
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
224 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure weakens across the region through tonight as a cold
front well to the west slowly approaches. The cold front nears the
region Tuesday, and moves across Tuesday night into early
Wednesday. The front moves farther offshore Wednesday night. Weak
high pressure returns Thursday through Friday. Another cold front
approaches late Friday moving across Saturday and moving southeast
of the region by next Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Weak mid and low level forcing has resulted in clouds developing
across eastern Connecticut and eastern Long Island. In addition,
in an increasingly low level southerly flow stratus has begun to
develop. A weak surface trough was across eastern New York state
into northeastern Pennsylvania with a line of scattered showers
associated with the trough. Will continue with the chance and
slight chance pops for this afternoon.

The airmass will begin to become more humid as dew points rise
through the lower 60s this afternoon with south winds as highs as
15 to 20 mph at the coast.

There is a moderate risk for the development of rip currents at
Atlantic ocean beaches today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Mid level short wave trough passes through tonight with a few
showers possible. Next feature of interest will be a cold front
dropping SE across the Great Lakes tonight, approaching the NW
zones late tomorrow afternoon. Gradual height falls aloft and
increasing low-level moisture will allow for moderate instability
tomorrow afternoon, mainly across the interior. An onshore flow
near the coast will help to stabilize the airmass. The best chance
for isolated strong convection will be across the interior later
in the afternoon with CAPES over 1000 J/KG. Wind shear remains
weak, so not expecting any organization.

Conditions will be warm and muggy with dew points rising into the
upper 60s with with similar lows tonight. Highs on Tuesday may be
a degree or two cooler due to more cloud cover and continued
onshore flow. Coastal sections may have to contend with stratus
late tonight into Tuesday as the warm, moist air overruns the
cooler nearshore waters.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Upper level trough makes slow progress east across New England
Tuesday night through Wednesday. Associated PVA noted in most model
solutions traversing across the area through early Wednesday before
moving east.

This energy departs to the northeast as closed upper low moves
across Ontario Province late in the week, with a general trough
extending across the Great Lakes region toward the east. The closed
low moves east across Quebec Province, with lowering heights and
weak PVA moving across the northeast United States next weekend.

At the surface, a slow moving cold front approaches Tuesday evening,
with a wave of low pressure along the front to the west. The front
makes slow progress across the area Tuesday night, with another
frontal boundary lagging behind Wednesday before moving through
late. High pressure builds Thursday and Friday with another cold
front moving toward or through the area Saturday. Not too confident
in how far front moves for the latter portion of the weekend.

As for sensible weather, scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms are expected Tuesday night due to leftover moderate
instability, convergence along the front, upper level jet and PVA
aiding development. This chance continues overnight into Wednesday
due to continuation of upper support and cold front in the vicinity.
Would expect possible shower or thunderstorm development at any time
Tuesday night and Wednesday, mainly scattered in nature.

Dry weather expected Thursday and Friday with unsettled weather
returning next weekend.

Temperatures will average near normal, lower to middle 80s during
the day and 60s at night for the most part. Followed model blend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure off the Mid-Atlantic coast will continue to drift
east. A weak low pressure trough will approach tonight, then a
cold front will approach on Tuesday.

* Mainly VFR to start afternoon. Initial MVFR cigs at KISP should
  scatter by 20Z as dense mid level clouds move east and daytime
  heating/mixing resume.

* Still expect increasing S flow, except SSE at KEWR/KTEB. Gusts
  could peak around 30 kt at KJFK, 25 kt at KLGA/KISP, and 15-18
  kt most elsewhere.

* Low clouds likely to move in quickly this evening at coastal
  terminals, with MVFR cigs to start, then IFR overnight. MVFR
  cigs expected north/west of there overnight except for KSWF, but
  timing north/west is uncertain, since those areas will be
  shielded from direct marine influence initially in southerly
  flow.

* Cigs should lift to MVFR by about 14Z-15Z.

...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: Peak gusts around 30 kt this afternoon. Initial
timing of MVFR and then IFR cigs tonight still a little
uncertain.

KLGA TAF Comments: Peak gusts around 25 kt this afternoon. Initial
timing of MVFR cigs tonight still uncertain, and could occur
later than forecast.

KEWR TAF Comments: Occasional G15-18KT this afternoon. Initial
timing of MVFR cigs tonight still uncertain, and could occur
later than forecast.

KTEB TAF Comments: Occasional G15-18KT this afternoon. Initial
timing of MVFR cigs tonight still uncertain, and could occur
later than forecast.

KHPN TAF Comments: Initial timing of MVFR cigs tonight still a
little uncertain.

KISP TAF Comments: Peak gusts around 25 kt this afternoon. Initial
timing of MVFR and then IFR cigs tonight still a little uncertain.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.Tuesday afternoon and night...MVFR or IFR conditions likely in
showers/tstms and/or low clouds/fog.

.Wednesday...MVFR or IFR or lower conditions possible via morning
fog/low clouds and showers/tstms.

.Wednesday afternoon through Friday morning...VFR.

.Friday night...MVFR or IFR conditions possible in showers/tstms.

.Saturday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas forecast on track. No changes at this time.

As high pressure drifts east today, southerly winds will increase
this afternoon with occasional gusts to near small craft levels,
mainly west of Fire Island Inlet to near the mouth of New York
Harbor. Similar conditions are forecast on Tuesday. Otherwise,
winds and seas will remain below small craft levels on all the
waters.

A slow moving cold front passes across the waters Tuesday
night through Wednesday as high pressure builds for the late
week period. Overall, the pressure gradient remains rather weak
during this time period. As such, expect seas and winds to
remain below small craft advisory thresholds.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Widespread significant rainfall is not anticipated through
the period. However, scattered showers and thunderstorms may
produce locally heavy downpours Tuesday night through Wednesday.
This could result in minor nuisance flooding.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DW/PW
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...Goodman
MARINE...MET/DW/PW
HYDROLOGY...DW/PW




000
FXUS61 KALY 271730
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
130 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A series of cold fronts will move eastward across the region late
today through Tuesday night, bringing rounds of showers and
thunderstorms. High pressure will then build in from the Midwest
by Wednesday night, with dry weather returning.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Band of showers continues is track east and will affect eastern NY
and western New England this afternoon. Quite a sharp western edge
to the rain but clouds lag back a bit to the west. There is a line
of clearing approaching central NY that will work its way into the
Schoharie Valley...western Mohawk Valley and parts of the southern
Adirondacks before sunset.

The clouds and rain will cap temperatures in eastern NY and
western New England...and cause temperatures to fall a bit while
it is raining. In areas it is already raining...temperatures have
fallen...and may fall another degree or two. Dew points rise
behind the band of rain and clouds...though.

So...temperatures this afternoon in the upper 70s to mid 80s in
eastern NY and western New England will fall once the rain
arrives...while temperatures in areas seeing the rain will be in
the upper 60s and lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The aforementioned pre-frontal trough will stall and become
diffuse near western New England tonight. So will only mention
isolated to widely scattered showers. It will be another mild
night with a southerly breezy persisting, with low temps in the
60s.

Tuesday is expected to be the most active day of the week in
terms of convective potential. At the surface, a cold front will
gradually push eastward across the region during the afternoon and
evening. Aloft, a positive to neutral tilt upper level trough is
forecast to deepen just to our west over the eastern Great Lakes.
Height falls and cyclonic vorticity advection aloft combined with
low level convergence along the cold front should result in fairly
widespread showers and thunderstorms to develop, especially during
the afternoon across eastern NY spreading eastward to western New
England by evening.

There is a marginal risk for some of the thunderstorms to become
severe if sufficient instability can develop. Some breaks of
sunshine are expected ahead of the cold front, but it is unclear
how unstable it will get as model guidance differs with the GFS
indicating 500-1500 J/Kg of SBCAPE, while the NAM has more robust
values of around 1500-3000 J/Kg. Should more sunshine materialize,
the NAM values would be reasonable, but this is uncertain at this
time. Deep layer shear will be increasing to around 25-40 kt, so
organized severe storms will be possible given ample buoyancy.
Will mention the marginal risk in HWO.

Showers will continue Tuesday night, as the cold front only
gradually makes eastward progress, while the upper level trough
axis remains to our west with a continued cyclonic flow.
Coverage/intensity of thunder should decrease by late evening
though as instability is forecast to wane.

Will continue to mention chance pops for scattered showers with
isolated thunder for Wednesday, siding with the slower ECMWF/NAM
guidance compared to faster GFS. The upper level trough may become
a closed low, which would slow its progress. The more progressive
GFS continues to show and open wave. Max temps Wednesday should be
cooler than recent days, but close to normal for late June.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
The period is expected to start out with fair weather and
seasonably warm temperatures. At the surface high pressure is
expected to be over the region. While aloft, the region is
expected to be between short wave trough.

A cold front will be on the approaches from the northwest as we
close out the work week and head into the long holiday weekend.
Convection is expected as the front approaches on Friday and
crosses the region Friday night.

Guidance indicates an upper level low should develop over the
Great Lakes region with it becoming stacked. This stacked low then
is modeled to move gradually eastward across eastern Canada over
the holiday weekend as short waves rotating about it maintaining
an upper level trough over the region. At this time, it appears
the weather across the local area should be fair for the holiday
weekend as the upper low is modeled to remain far enough to our
north while the cold front that moves through is forecast to stall
far enough to our south. A wave of low pressure is expected to
move eastward along this boundary. Subtle changes in the expected
locations of these features will result in changes to a fair
weather forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Band of showers was progressing across eastern New York yet flight
conditions remain VFR. In the wake of these showers the CIGS lower
a bit toward MVFR which seems this trend will continue into this
evening. Later tonight, combination from some rainfall earlier
along with higher surface dewpoints will lead toward lower CIGS
and VIS well into MVFR flight categories. Now if enough breaks in
the clouds were to occur and winds decouple, IFR conditions will
be possible with fog and/or low stratus.

Winds will generally be from the southerly direction around 10 KTS
through this afternoon then drop back to 5KTS or less tonight.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A series of cold fronts will move eastward across the region late
today through Tuesday night, bringing rounds of showers and
thunderstorms. High pressure will then build in from the Midwest
by Wednesday night, with dry weather returning.

Minimum relative humidity values this afternoon are expected to
be around 35 to 50 percent. RH values will then increase to
between 80 and 100 percent tonight. Minimum RH values on Tuesday
will be around 50 to 60 percent.

Winds today will be southerly around 10 to 15 mph with gusts
around 20 mph. Southerly winds will decrease to 5 to 10 mph
tonight. Winds on Tuesday will be south-southwest at 5 to 15 mph.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydro problems are expected over the next 5 days.
There is a chance of showers and a few thunderstorms today, as a
weakening frontal boundary approaches. There will be a better
likelihood of showers and thunderstorms across the region on
Tuesday, ahead of and along a cold front. Two day rainfall totals
could reach one half to one inch, with some isolated higher
amounts. Ponding of water will occur within any persistent
thunderstorms. A few lingering showers are possible Wednesday with
light qpf amounts.

Dry weather will return by Thursday, with high pressure moving
back in across the region.

The latest drought monitor now has most of our region labeled
`Abnormally Dry` (D0). In fact, over the past 30 days, most of our
region is approximately 1-3 inches below normal in terms of
rainfall.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...NAS/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...NAS/JPV

www.weather.gov/albany




000
FXUS61 KALY 271730
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
130 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A series of cold fronts will move eastward across the region late
today through Tuesday night, bringing rounds of showers and
thunderstorms. High pressure will then build in from the Midwest
by Wednesday night, with dry weather returning.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Band of showers continues is track east and will affect eastern NY
and western New England this afternoon. Quite a sharp western edge
to the rain but clouds lag back a bit to the west. There is a line
of clearing approaching central NY that will work its way into the
Schoharie Valley...western Mohawk Valley and parts of the southern
Adirondacks before sunset.

The clouds and rain will cap temperatures in eastern NY and
western New England...and cause temperatures to fall a bit while
it is raining. In areas it is already raining...temperatures have
fallen...and may fall another degree or two. Dew points rise
behind the band of rain and clouds...though.

So...temperatures this afternoon in the upper 70s to mid 80s in
eastern NY and western New England will fall once the rain
arrives...while temperatures in areas seeing the rain will be in
the upper 60s and lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The aforementioned pre-frontal trough will stall and become
diffuse near western New England tonight. So will only mention
isolated to widely scattered showers. It will be another mild
night with a southerly breezy persisting, with low temps in the
60s.

Tuesday is expected to be the most active day of the week in
terms of convective potential. At the surface, a cold front will
gradually push eastward across the region during the afternoon and
evening. Aloft, a positive to neutral tilt upper level trough is
forecast to deepen just to our west over the eastern Great Lakes.
Height falls and cyclonic vorticity advection aloft combined with
low level convergence along the cold front should result in fairly
widespread showers and thunderstorms to develop, especially during
the afternoon across eastern NY spreading eastward to western New
England by evening.

There is a marginal risk for some of the thunderstorms to become
severe if sufficient instability can develop. Some breaks of
sunshine are expected ahead of the cold front, but it is unclear
how unstable it will get as model guidance differs with the GFS
indicating 500-1500 J/Kg of SBCAPE, while the NAM has more robust
values of around 1500-3000 J/Kg. Should more sunshine materialize,
the NAM values would be reasonable, but this is uncertain at this
time. Deep layer shear will be increasing to around 25-40 kt, so
organized severe storms will be possible given ample buoyancy.
Will mention the marginal risk in HWO.

Showers will continue Tuesday night, as the cold front only
gradually makes eastward progress, while the upper level trough
axis remains to our west with a continued cyclonic flow.
Coverage/intensity of thunder should decrease by late evening
though as instability is forecast to wane.

Will continue to mention chance pops for scattered showers with
isolated thunder for Wednesday, siding with the slower ECMWF/NAM
guidance compared to faster GFS. The upper level trough may become
a closed low, which would slow its progress. The more progressive
GFS continues to show and open wave. Max temps Wednesday should be
cooler than recent days, but close to normal for late June.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
The period is expected to start out with fair weather and
seasonably warm temperatures. At the surface high pressure is
expected to be over the region. While aloft, the region is
expected to be between short wave trough.

A cold front will be on the approaches from the northwest as we
close out the work week and head into the long holiday weekend.
Convection is expected as the front approaches on Friday and
crosses the region Friday night.

Guidance indicates an upper level low should develop over the
Great Lakes region with it becoming stacked. This stacked low then
is modeled to move gradually eastward across eastern Canada over
the holiday weekend as short waves rotating about it maintaining
an upper level trough over the region. At this time, it appears
the weather across the local area should be fair for the holiday
weekend as the upper low is modeled to remain far enough to our
north while the cold front that moves through is forecast to stall
far enough to our south. A wave of low pressure is expected to
move eastward along this boundary. Subtle changes in the expected
locations of these features will result in changes to a fair
weather forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Band of showers was progressing across eastern New York yet flight
conditions remain VFR. In the wake of these showers the CIGS lower
a bit toward MVFR which seems this trend will continue into this
evening. Later tonight, combination from some rainfall earlier
along with higher surface dewpoints will lead toward lower CIGS
and VIS well into MVFR flight categories. Now if enough breaks in
the clouds were to occur and winds decouple, IFR conditions will
be possible with fog and/or low stratus.

Winds will generally be from the southerly direction around 10 KTS
through this afternoon then drop back to 5KTS or less tonight.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A series of cold fronts will move eastward across the region late
today through Tuesday night, bringing rounds of showers and
thunderstorms. High pressure will then build in from the Midwest
by Wednesday night, with dry weather returning.

Minimum relative humidity values this afternoon are expected to
be around 35 to 50 percent. RH values will then increase to
between 80 and 100 percent tonight. Minimum RH values on Tuesday
will be around 50 to 60 percent.

Winds today will be southerly around 10 to 15 mph with gusts
around 20 mph. Southerly winds will decrease to 5 to 10 mph
tonight. Winds on Tuesday will be south-southwest at 5 to 15 mph.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydro problems are expected over the next 5 days.
There is a chance of showers and a few thunderstorms today, as a
weakening frontal boundary approaches. There will be a better
likelihood of showers and thunderstorms across the region on
Tuesday, ahead of and along a cold front. Two day rainfall totals
could reach one half to one inch, with some isolated higher
amounts. Ponding of water will occur within any persistent
thunderstorms. A few lingering showers are possible Wednesday with
light qpf amounts.

Dry weather will return by Thursday, with high pressure moving
back in across the region.

The latest drought monitor now has most of our region labeled
`Abnormally Dry` (D0). In fact, over the past 30 days, most of our
region is approximately 1-3 inches below normal in terms of
rainfall.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...NAS/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...NAS/JPV

www.weather.gov/albany




000
FXUS61 KALY 271709
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
109 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A series of cold fronts will move eastward across the region late
today through Tuesday night, bringing rounds of showers and
thunderstorms. High pressure will then build in from the Midwest
by Wednesday night, with dry weather returning.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Band of showers continues is track east and will affect eastern NY
and western New England this afternoon. Quite a sharp western edge
to the rain but clouds lag back a bit to the west. There is a line
of clearing approaching central NY that will work its way into the
Schoharie Valley...western Mohawk Valley and parts of the southern
Adirondacks before sunset.

The clouds and rain will cap temperatures in eastern NY and
western New England...and cause temperatures to fall a bit while
it is raining. In areas it is already raining...temperatures have
fallen...and may fall another degree or two. Dew points rise
behind the band of rain and clouds...though.

So...temperatures this afternoon in the upper 70s to mid 80s in
eastern NY and western New England will fall once the rain
arrives...while temperatures in areas seeing the rain will be in
the upper 60s and lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The aforementioned pre-frontal trough will stall and become
diffuse near western New England tonight. So will only mention
isolated to widely scattered showers. It will be another mild
night with a southerly breezy persisting, with low temps in the
60s.

Tuesday is expected to be the most active day of the week in
terms of convective potential. At the surface, a cold front will
gradually push eastward across the region during the afternoon and
evening. Aloft, a positive to neutral tilt upper level trough is
forecast to deepen just to our west over the eastern Great Lakes.
Height falls and cyclonic vorticity advection aloft combined with
low level convergence along the cold front should result in fairly
widespread showers and thunderstorms to develop, especially during
the afternoon across eastern NY spreading eastward to western New
England by evening.

There is a marginal risk for some of the thunderstorms to become
severe if sufficient instability can develop. Some breaks of
sunshine are expected ahead of the cold front, but it is unclear
how unstable it will get as model guidance differs with the GFS
indicating 500-1500 J/Kg of SBCAPE, while the NAM has more robust
values of around 1500-3000 J/Kg. Should more sunshine materialize,
the NAM values would be reasonable, but this is uncertain at this
time. Deep layer shear will be increasing to around 25-40 kt, so
organized severe storms will be possible given ample buoyancy.
Will mention the marginal risk in HWO.

Showers will continue Tuesday night, as the cold front only
gradually makes eastward progress, while the upper level trough
axis remains to our west with a continued cyclonic flow.
Coverage/intensity of thunder should decrease by late evening
though as instability is forecast to wane.

Will continue to mention chance pops for scattered showers with
isolated thunder for Wednesday, siding with the slower ECMWF/NAM
guidance compared to faster GFS. The upper level trough may become
a closed low, which would slow its progress. The more progressive
GFS continues to show and open wave. Max temps Wednesday should be
cooler than recent days, but close to normal for late June.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The period is expected to start out with fair weather and
seasonably warm temperatures. At the surface high pressure is
expected to be over the region. While aloft, the region is
expected to be between short wave trough.

A cold front will be on the approaches from the northwest as we
close out the work week and head into the long holiday weekend.
Convection is expected as the front approaches on Friday and
crosses the region Friday night.

Guidance indicates an upper level low should develop over the
Great Lakes region with it becoming stacked. This stacked low then
is modeled to move gradually eastward across eastern Canada over
the holiday weekend as short waves rotating about it maintaining
an upper level trough over the region. At this time, it appears
the weather across the local area should be fair for the holiday
weekend as the upper low is modeled to remain far enough to our
north while the cold front that moves through is forecast to stall
far enough to our south. A wave of low pressure is expected to
move eastward along this boundary. Subtle changes in the expected
locations of these features will result in changes to a fair
weather forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure along the Atlantic seaboard will weaken and slide
offshore today. In the meantime, a cold front will approach from
the west. Heights will fall across the region however upper level
support will remain well to the west. convection to move across
across the local area today impacting the TAF sites mainly during
the afternoon into the evening.

Expecting VFR conditions to prevail through much of the evening.
MVFR conditions are expected to develop overnight initially due
to ceilings then some fog is expected to form.

South-southwest flow will increasing to 10 to 12 knots with some
gusts into the 20s. The winds will decrease in the evening.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A series of cold fronts will move eastward across the region late
today through Tuesday night, bringing rounds of showers and
thunderstorms. High pressure will then build in from the Midwest
by Wednesday night, with dry weather returning.

Minimum relative humidity values this afternoon are expected to
be around 35 to 50 percent. RH values will then increase to
between 80 and 100 percent tonight. Minimum RH values on Tuesday
will be around 50 to 60 percent.

Winds today will be southerly around 10 to 15 mph with gusts
around 20 mph. Southerly winds will decrease to 5 to 10 mph
tonight. Winds on Tuesday will be south-southwest at 5 to 15 mph.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydro problems are expected over the next 5 days.
There is a chance of showers and a few thunderstorms today, as a
weakening frontal boundary approaches. There will be a better
likelihood of showers and thunderstorms across the region on
Tuesday, ahead of and along a cold front. Two day rainfall totals
could reach one half to one inch, with some isolated higher
amounts. Ponding of water will occur within any persistent
thunderstorms. A few lingering showers are possible Wednesday with
light qpf amounts.

Dry weather will return by Thursday, with high pressure moving
back in across the region.

The latest drought monitor now has most of our region labeled
`Abnormally Dry` (D0). In fact, over the past 30 days, most of our
region is approximately 1-3 inches below normal in terms of
rainfall.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...NAS/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...NAS/JPV




000
FXUS61 KOKX 271641
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1241 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure weakens across the region through tonight as a cold
front well to the west slowly approaches. The cold front nears the
region Tuesday, and moves across Tuesday night into early
Wednesday. The front moves farther offshore Wednesday night. Weak
high pressure returns Thursday through Friday. Another cold front
approaches late Friday moving across Saturday and moving southeast
of the region by next Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Weak mid and low level forcing has resulted in clouds developing
across eastern Connecticut and eastern Long Island. In addition,
in an increasingly low level southerly flow stratus has begun to
develop. A weak surface trough was across eastern New York state
into northeastern Pennsylvania with a line of scattered showers
associated with the trough. Will continue with the chance and
slight chance pops for this afternoon.

The airmass will begin to become more humid as dew points rise
through the lower 60s this afternoon with south winds as highs as
15 to 20 mph at the coast.

There is a moderate risk for the development of rip currents at
Atlantic ocean beaches today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Mid level short wave trough passes through tonight with a few
showers possible. Next feature of interest will be a cold front
dropping SE across the Great Lakes tonight, approaching the NW
zones late tomorrow afternoon. Gradual height falls aloft and
increasing low-level moisture will allow for moderate instability
tomorrow afternoon, mainly across the interior. An onshore flow
near the coast will help to stabilize the airmass. The best chance
for isolated strong convection will be across the interior later
in the afternoon with CAPES over 1000 J/KG. Wind shear remains
weak, so not expecting any organization.

Conditions will be warm and muggy with dew points rising into the
upper 60s with with similar lows tonight. Highs on Tuesday may be
a degree or two cooler due to more cloud cover and continued
onshore flow. Coastal sections may have to contend with stratus
late tonight into Tuesday as the warm, moist air overruns the
cooler nearshore waters.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Upper level trough makes slow progress east across New England
Tuesday night through Wednesday. Associated PVA noted in most model
solutions traversing across the area through early Wednesday before
moving east.

This energy departs to the northeast as closed upper low moves
across Ontario Province late in the week, with a general trough
extending across the Great Lakes region toward the east. The closed
low moves east across Quebec Province, with lowering heights and
weak PVA moving across the northeast United States next weekend.

At the surface, a slow moving cold front approaches Tuesday evening,
with a wave of low pressure along the front to the west. The front
makes slow progress across the area Tuesday night, with another
frontal boundary lagging behind Wednesday before moving through
late. High pressure builds Thursday and Friday with another cold
front moving toward or through the area Saturday. Not too confident
in how far front moves for the latter portion of the weekend.

As for sensible weather, scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms are expected Tuesday night due to leftover moderate
instability, convergence along the front, upper level jet and PVA
aiding development. This chance continues overnight into Wednesday
due to continuation of upper support and cold front in the vicinity.
Would expect possible shower or thunderstorm development at any time
Tuesday night and Wednesday, mainly scattered in nature.

Dry weather expected Thursday and Friday with unsettled weather
returning next weekend.

Temperatures will average near normal, lower to middle 80s during
the day and 60s at night for the most part. Followed model blend.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure off the Mid-Atlantic coast continues to drift into
the open Atlantic waters as a cold front approaches from the west.

Important changes with 14Z AMD:

* SE sea breeze should make it to KEWR/KTEB by about 17Z, with
  occasional G15-18KT as was the case yesterday.

* Wind gusts at the other coastal terminals should be stronger
  than originally forecast. Cannot totally rule out gusts close
  to 30 kt at KJFK and close to to 25 kt at KLGA/KISP/KGON.

* Also watching low clouds advancing northward into central NJ
  and the nearby coastal waters. Think the heat of the day will
  hold these clouds off for the most part, then MVFR cigs should
  come in after dark. Exact timing is uncertain and could even be
  sooner than forecast at KJFK/KLGA/KISP. IFR cigs are now
  forecast for late tonight at KGON, and may have to consider this
  for the other coastal terminals with 18Z TAF.

Showers also possible toward daybreak Tuesday and into Tuesday
morning with MVFR conditions.

     NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: Sea breeze gusts could approach 30 kt late
this afternoon. Timing of MVFR cigs tonight uncertain.

KLGA TAF Comments: Sea breeze gusts could approach 25 kt late
this afternoon. Timing of MVFR cigs tonight uncertain.

KEWR TAF Comments: Occasional G15-18KT late this afternoon. Timing
of MVFR cigs tonight uncertain.

The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is GREEN, which
implies slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud.

KTEB TAF Comments: Occasional G15-18KT late this afternoon. Timing
of MVFR cigs tonight uncertain.

KHPN TAF Comments: No unscheduled AMD.

KISP TAF Comments: Sea breeze gusts could approach 25 kt late
this afternoon. Timing of MVFR cigs tonight uncertain. Slight
chance of IFR cigs late tonight.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.Tuesday morning...MVFR or lower conditions possible, with
showers mainly from NYC metro north/west, and low clouds/patchy
fog along the coast.

.Tuesday afternoon and night...MVFR or IFR conditions likely in
showers and tstms. Low clouds and fog possible at night, with IFR
or lower conditions likely at coastal terminals.

.Wednesday morning...IFR or lower conditions still possible via
morning fog/low clouds and any stray showers.

.Wednesday afternoon through Thursday...VFR.

.Friday...MVFR or lower conditions possible in showers/tstms in
the late afternoon from NYC metro north/west, and throughout at
night.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas forecast on track. No changes at this time.

As high pressure drifts east today, southerly winds will increase
this afternoon with occasional gusts to near small craft levels,
mainly west of Fire Island Inlet to near the mouth of New York
Harbor. Similar conditions are forecast on Tuesday. Otherwise,
winds and seas will remain below small craft levels on all the
waters.

A slow moving cold front passes across the waters Tuesday
night through Wednesday as high pressure builds for the late
week period. Overall, the pressure gradient remains rather weak
during this time period. As such, expect seas and winds to
remain below small craft advisory thresholds.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Widespread significant rainfall is not anticipated through
the period. However, scattered showers and thunderstorms may
produce locally heavy downpours Tuesday night through Wednesday.
This could result in minor nuisance flooding.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DW/PW
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...Goodman
MARINE...MET/DW/PW
HYDROLOGY...DW/PW




000
FXUS61 KBOX 271422
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
1022 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains in control Today into Tuesday. A cool front
will slowly approach the region, bringing showers and
thunderstorms late Tuesday through Wednesday. The front will push
offshore Wednesday night. High pressure then brings dry seasonable
weather for the late week. Another cold front may bring more
showers and thunderstorms around Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
No major changes to the forecast this morning. Tweaked the
forecast over the next several hours to reflect observed trends.
Mainly dealing with cirrus, and perhaps some altocumulus, moving
into western portions of MA and CT. Still evaluating thunderstorm
potential for later today. At this time, not looking all that
impressive a risk, due to poor instability.

Previous discussion...

Skies remain mainly clear early this morning except for some thin
patches of cirrus clouds crossing the area. Some patchy mid level
clouds trying to shift E-SE out of upstate NY as seen on latest IR
satellite imagery, but are tending to dissipate are they reach the
New England/NY border with very dry airmass aloft, as well as
ridging at the surface and aloft.

As H5 heights tend to lower during the day, the upper ridge will
recede southwestward as weak mid level trough sits over the Gulf
of Maine and E of Cape Cod. H5 short wave begins to dig across the
Great Lakes during the day. Lead pre-frontal trough heads out
ahead of the main short wave, so will see a line of showers/tstms
push across NY state during the day. Short range models continue
to suggest that some may begin to reach into the E slopes of the
Berkshires late in the day. Only mentioned slight chance POPs
there. Will see dry conditions for most areas through the day,
though clouds will increase across western areas this afternoon.

With the general S-SW winds in place, expect temps to top off in
the lower-mid 80s, except only in the 70s along the S coast with
the onshore winds. Will see a gradual increase in humidities
during the day, with dewpts reaching to around 60 along the S
coast by evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Tonight...

As pre-frontal trough slowly pushes eastward, it will weaken
tonight. However, could see enough forcing and dynamics work into
central and western areas to keep some scattered showers and even
an isold thunderstorm or two to move in. Noting as band of
increasing PWATs associated with this trough, on order of 1.6 to
1.8 inches with it. Dewpts will also continue to slowly increase
as well, so patchy fog could also develop with the precipitation
as well as along the S coast with the onshore winds.

Expect temps to fall back to the lower-mid 60s.

Tuesday...

H5 short wave works slowly eastward to W NY state Tuesday
afternoon/evening. Leftover instability with the weakening pre-
frontal trough becomes parallel to the SW upper flow ahead of the
short wave. Also, convection with the main front, which will cross
into eastern NY state during the afternoon, will refire and push
into central and western areas. Have carried mainly chance POPs
for most areas away from the coastal plain, with best shot from
the CT valley to the E slopes of the Berkshires. Will probably
see little if any precip through Tuesday across Cape Cod and the
islands.

Expect muggy conditions /dewpts in the lower-mid 60s/ with highs
running mainly in the mid 70s to around 80, though a bit cooler on
the outer Cape and islands.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Big Picture...

Longwave scale continues to show a ridge-west/trough-east pattern
over North America. This may shift east a little during the
holiday weekend. One shortwave rippling through this flow moves
across New England later Wednesday. A second moves down from
Canada and sweeps across New England next weekend.

Model mass fields are similar with the broad pattern through Friday.
There are differences in positioning of the cold front associated
with the first shortwave. The ECMWF is farthest west and the GGEM
farthest east. This means a consensus as to the broader forecast,
showers/tstms, but uncertainty regarding the details such as timing.
With the second shortwave, the GFS and ECMWF are similar while the
GGEM is slower and farther south. The mass field agreement and the
variations in details Tuesday night/Wednesday favor a blend of model
data.

Details...

Tuesday night through Wednesday...

Shortwave over the Eastern Great Lakes digs over New England while
the associated surface cold front moves through Eastern New York
Tuesday night and New England Wednesday. The upper flow through the
shortwave will be SSW to NNE across our area, almost parallel to the
cold front. Until the shortwave axis swings across our area and
turns the upper flow across the front, the cold front will move
very slowly.

Upper jet flowing through the shortwave will provide dynamic support
for lift. Model data shows precipitable water values pooling along
and just ahead of the front with max values 1.6 to 1.8 inches. Three
of four models show total-totals in the upper 40s Tuesday night
through Wednesday afternoon in the area leading the cold front.
Cross sections show the moisture will be through a deep column. All
of this points to showers and possible thunderstorms. We will stay
with likely pops Tuesday night and chance pops Wednesday.

Thursday through Saturday...

Weak high pressure builds over the region Thursday and lingers into
Friday. The second shortwave approaches with difluent flow aloft
Friday afternoon/evening and increasing precip water values toward
evening. Favorable instability remains to our west and northwest
during Friday but then moves across Southern New England Friday
night.

Timing on this shortwave and surface cold front will continue to
vary, but for now we will show chance pops for showers/tstms in
extreme western MA Friday afternoon and chance pops for most of the
area Friday night. Showers/thunder end from west to east Saturday
morning.

Temps aloft 13-15C should support max sfc temps in the low to mid
80s.

Sunday...

The Saturday cold front moves south of New England, but with long
range data suggesting it may stall to our south. In this scenario, a
low pressure wave would move along the front from the Ohio Valley
and pass south of us.  There is some potential for clouds and a
chance of showers for July 3rd, mostly along our South Coast with
diminishing likelihood to the north. This will need to be
monitored.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Tuesday/...

Today...High Confidence. VFR. Expect S-SW winds gradually
increasing, gusts up to 20-25 kt during the afternoon.

Tonight...Moderate Confidence. Mainly VFR. Scattered showers/isold
TSRA move into central and western areas mainly near or after
midnight with MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS. Low chance for LIFR CIGS in
stratus/fog across S coastal areas.

Tuesday...Moderate confidence. Low clouds and fog with patchy MVFR-
IFR conditions through 14Z along the S coast. Will see MVFR-IFR
conditions in scattered SHRA/TSRA, mainly from away from the coastal
plain through the day.

KBOS TAF...High confidence. VFR. S winds increase today, gusting up
to around 20 kts during the afternoon hours.

KBDL TAF...High confidence. VFR. Low to moderate chance for MVFR-
IFR CIGS/VSBYS late tonight in low clouds/fog.

Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/...

Tuesday night-Wednesday...Moderate confidence

VFR with areas of MVFR in showers and thunderstorms Tuesday night
and Wednesday morning. Areas of IFR possible in fog and low clouds.
South winds gusting to 20 knots will shift from the West after the
cold front moves through Wednesday.

Thursday-Friday...Moderate confidence

VFR. North winds become variable Thursday, then from the south
Friday.  Showers/tstms will develop over New York State, and may
move into Southern New England Friday evening and night. These
showers and storms would have areas of MVFR cigs/vsbys.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Tuesday/...

Today...High confidence. Expect south winds to increase this
afternoon. Gusts will reach to around 25 kt on the eastern outer
waters from N of Cape Cod to Cape Ann. Seas also build to around
5 ft there. Small craft advisory in effect. Elsewhere, will see
gusts up to 20 kt with seas 4 ft or less.

Tonight...Moderate confidence. Small crafts will continue for the
waters from N of Cape Cod to Cape Ann, though winds and seas
should diminish after midnight. Otherwise, winds and seas below
small craft. Reduced visibilities around or after midnight in
patchy fog, mainly over the open waters. Widely scattered
showers/thunderstorms toward daybreak off Cape Ann, and scattered
showers from Block Island westward.

Tuesday...Moderate confidence. South winds continue, with some
gusts up to 20 kt on the eastern outer waters. Seas 4 ft or less.
Reduced visibilities in patchy morning fog. Chance for
showers/thunderstorms mainly on the near shore waters.

Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/...

Tuesday night-Wednesday...Moderate confidence.

Showers and thunderstorms cross the waters with south wind gusts
near 20 knots at times. Winds shift from the west Wednesday as a
cold front crosses the waters.  Low vsbys possible ahead of the cold
front in showers and storms as well as in fog.  No headlines planned
at this time.

Thursday-Friday...Moderate confidence.

High pressure builds over the waters Thursday and moves off to the
east Friday.  A cold front approaches from the west Friday night.
Winds and seas should remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria.
Scattered showers/thunderstorms possible Friday night as the cold
front approaches.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ250.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB/Belk/EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT




000
FXUS61 KOKX 271412
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1012 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weakening cold front over the Lower Great Lakes this morning
dissipates to the west of the area later today. Another cold
front approaches from the west on Tuesday and moves across the
area Tuesday night into early Wednesday. The front moves farther
offshore Wednesday night. Weak high pressure returns Thursday
through Friday. Another cold front approaches late Friday moving
across Saturday and moving southeast of the region by next Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Minor adjustments were made to forecast based on latest conditions.

High pressure over the region this morning gives way to a
dissipating cold front approaching from the west. The latter of
which may produce a few showers late this afternoon to the north
and west of NYC. Chances are low though with warm heights aloft
resulting in weak instability. For the most part, expect mostly
sunny skies into early this afternoon with increasing mid and high
level clouds to follow from upstream convection.

The airmass will begin to become more humid as dew points rise
through the lower 60s this afternoon with south winds as highs as
15 to 20 mph at the coast.

There is a moderate risk for the development of rip currents at
Atlantic ocean beaches today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Mid level short wave trough passes through tonight with a few
showers possible. Next feature of interest will be a cold front
dropping SE across the Great Lakes tonight, approaching the NW
zones late tomorrow afternoon. Gradual height falls aloft and
increasing low-level moisture will allow for moderate instability
tomorrow afternoon, mainly across the interior. An onshore flow
near the coast will help to stabilize the airmass. The best chance
for isolated strong convection will be across the interior later
in the afternoon with CAPES over 1000 J/KG. Wind shear remains
weak, so not expecting any organization.

Conditions will be warm and muggy with dew points rising into the
upper 60s with with similar lows tonight. Highs on Tuesday may be
a degree or two cooler due to more cloud cover and continued
onshore flow. Coastal sections may have to contend with stratus
late tonight into Tuesday as the warm, moist air overruns the
cooler nearshore waters.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Upper level trough makes slow progress east across New England
Tuesday night through Wednesday. Associated PVA noted in most model
solutions traversing across the area through early Wednesday before
moving east.

This energy departs to the northeast as closed upper low moves
across Ontario Province late in the week, with a general trough
extending across the Great Lakes region toward the east. The closed
low moves east across Quebec Province, with lowering heights and
weak PVA moving across the northeast United States next weekend.

At the surface, a slow moving cold front approaches Tuesday evening,
with a wave of low pressure along the front to the west. The front
makes slow progress across the area Tuesday night, with another
frontal boundary lagging behind Wednesday before moving through
late. High pressure builds Thursday and Friday with another cold
front moving toward or through the area Saturday. Not too confident
in how far front moves for the latter portion of the weekend.

As for sensible weather, scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms are expected Tuesday night due to leftover moderate
instability, convergence along the front, upper level jet and PVA
aiding development. This chance continues overnight into Wednesday
due to continuation of upper support and cold front in the vicinity.
Would expect possible shower or thunderstorm development at any time
Tuesday night and Wednesday, mainly scattered in nature.

Dry weather expected Thursday and Friday with unsettled weather
returning next weekend.

Temperatures will average near normal, lower to middle 80s during
the day and 60s at night for the most part. Followed model blend.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure off the Mid-Atlantic coast continues to drift into
the open Atlantic waters as a cold front approaches from the west.

Important changes with 14Z AMD:

* SE sea breeze should make it to KEWR/KTEB by about 17Z, with
  occasional G15-18KT as was the case yesterday.

* Wind gusts at the other coastal terminals should be stronger
  than originally forecast. Cannot totally rule out gusts close
  to 30 kt at KJFK and close to to 25 kt at KLGA/KISP/KGON.

* Also watching low clouds advancing northward into central NJ
  and the nearby coastal waters. Think the heat of the day will
  hold these clouds off for the most part, then MVFR cigs should
  come in after dark. Exact timing is uncertain and could even be
  sooner than forecast at KJFK/KLGA/KISP. IFR cigs are now
  forecast for late tonight at KGON, and may have to consider this
  for the other coastal terminals with 18Z TAF.

Showers also possible toward daybreak Tuesday and into Tuesday
morning with MVFR conditions.

...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: Sea breeze gusts could approach 30 kt late
this afternoon. Timing of MVFR cigs tonight uncertain.

KLGA TAF Comments: Sea breeze gusts could approach 25 kt late
this afternoon. Timing of MVFR cigs tonight uncertain.

KEWR TAF Comments: Occasional G15-18KT late this afternoon. Timing
of MVFR cigs tonight uncertain.

The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is GREEN, which
implies slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud.

KTEB TAF Comments: Occasional G15-18KT late this afternoon. Timing
of MVFR cigs tonight uncertain.

KHPN TAF Comments: No unscheduled AMD.

KISP TAF Comments: Sea breeze gusts could approach 25 kt late
this afternoon. Timing of MVFR cigs tonight uncertain. Slight
chance of IFR cigs late tonight.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.Tuesday morning...MVFR or lower conditions possible, with
showers mainly from NYC metro north/west, and low clouds/patchy
fog along the coast.

.Tuesday afternoon and night...MVFR or IFR conditions likely in
showers and tstms. Low clouds and fog possible at night, with IFR
or lower conditions likely at coastal terminals.

.Wednesday morning...IFR or lower conditions still possible via
morning fog/low clouds and any stray showers.

.Wednesday afternoon through Thursday...VFR.

.Friday...MVFR or lower conditions possible in showers/tstms in
the late afternoon from NYC metro north/west, and throughout at
night.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas forecast on track. No changes at this time.

As high pressure drifts east today, southerly winds will increase
this afternoon with occasional gusts to near small craft levels,
mainly west of Fire Island Inlet to near the mouth of New York
Harbor. Similar conditions are forecast on Tuesday. Otherwise,
winds and seas will remain below small craft levels on all the
waters.

A slow moving cold front passes across the waters Tuesday
night through Wednesday as high pressure builds for the late
week period. Overall, the pressure gradient remains rather weak
during this time period. As such, expect seas and winds to
remain below small craft advisory thresholds.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Widespread significant rainfall is not anticipated through
the period. However, scattered showers and thunderstorms may
produce locally heavy downpours Tuesday night through Wednesday.
This could result in minor nuisance flooding.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DW/PW
NEAR TERM...DW/PW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...Goodman
MARINE...DW/PW
HYDROLOGY...DW/PW




000
FXUS61 KALY 271343
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
943 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A series of cold fronts will move eastward across the region late
today through Tuesday night, bringing rounds of showers and
thunderstorms. High pressure will then build in from the Midwest
by Wednesday night, with dry weather returning.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 930 AM EDT...Line of showers and some embedded thunderstorms
per the NLDN were into portions of the Adirondack Park and western
Mohawk Valley. Per extrapolation of these showers in conjunction
with the HRRR/HRRRX, we will time these showers/storms expanding
further eastward with most of the Hudson Valley region by early
afternoon under cloudy conditions with scattered convection as
weak surface trough passes through. As for temperatures, after a
mild start to the day, there remains enough sun over the eastern
2/3rds of the local county warning area to keep the expected high
temperatures (mainly upper 70s to mid 80s).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The aforementioned pre-frontal trough will stall and become
diffuse near western New England tonight. So will only mention
isolated to widely scattered showers. It will be another mild
night with a southerly breezy persisting, with low temps in the
60s.

Tuesday is expected to be the most active day of the week in
terms of convective potential. At the surface, a cold front will
gradually push eastward across the region during the afternoon and
evening. Aloft, a positive to neutral tilt upper level trough is
forecast to deepen just to our west over the eastern Great Lakes.
Height falls and cyclonic vorticity advection aloft combined with
low level convergence along the cold front should result in fairly
widespread showers and thunderstorms to develop, especially during
the afternoon across eastern NY spreading eastward to western New
England by evening.

There is a marginal risk for some of the thunderstorms to become
severe if sufficient instability can develop. Some breaks of
sunshine are expected ahead of the cold front, but it is unclear
how unstable it will get as model guidance differs with the GFS
indicating 500-1500 J/Kg of SBCAPE, while the NAM has more robust
values of around 1500-3000 J/Kg. Should more sunshine materialize,
the NAM values would be reasonable, but this is uncertain at this
time. Deep layer shear will be increasing to around 25-40 kt, so
organized severe storms will be possible given ample buoyancy.
Will mention the marginal risk in HWO.

Showers will continue Tuesday night, as the cold front only
gradually makes eastward progress, while the upper level trough
axis remains to our west with a continued cyclonic flow.
Coverage/intensity of thunder should decrease by late evening
though as instability is forecast to wane.

Will continue to mention chance pops for scattered showers with
isolated thunder for Wednesday, siding with the slower ECMWF/NAM
guidance compared to faster GFS. The upper level trough may become
a closed low, which would slow its progress. The more progressive
GFS continues to show and open wave. Max temps Wednesday should be
cooler than recent days, but close to normal for late June.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The period is expected to start out with fair weather and
seasonably warm temperatures. At the surface high pressure is
expected to be over the region. While aloft, the region is
expected to be between short wave trough.

A cold front will be on the approaches from the northwest as we
close out the work week and head into the long holiday weekend.
Convection is expected as the front approaches on Friday and
crosses the region Friday night.

Guidance indicates an upper level low should develop over the
Great Lakes region with it becoming stacked. This stacked low then
is modeled to move gradually eastward across eastern Canada over
the holiday weekend as short waves rotating about it maintaining
an upper level trough over the region. At this time, it appears
the weather across the local area should be fair for the holiday
weekend as the upper low is modeled to remain far enough to our
north while the cold front that moves through is forecast to stall
far enough to our south. A wave of low pressure is expected to
move eastward along this boundary. Subtle changes in the expected
locations of these features will result in changes to a fair
weather forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure along the Atlantic seaboard will weaken and slide
offshore today. In the meantime, a cold front will approach from
the west. Heights will fall across the region however upper level
support will remain well to the west. convection to move across
across the local area today impacting the TAF sites mainly during
the afternoon into the evening.

Expecting VFR conditions to prevail through much of the evening.
MVFR conditions are expected to develop overnight initially due
to ceilings then some fog is expected to form.

South-southwest flow will increasing to 10 to 12 knots with some
gusts into the 20s. The winds will decrease in the evening.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A series of cold fronts will move eastward across the region late
today through Tuesday night, bringing rounds of showers and
thunderstorms. High pressure will then build in from the Midwest
by Wednesday night, with dry weather returning.

Minimum relative humidity values this afternoon are expected to
be around 35 to 50 percent. RH values will then increase to
between 80 and 100 percent tonight. Minimum RH values on Tuesday
will be around 50 to 60 percent.

Winds today will be southerly around 10 to 15 mph with gusts
around 20 mph. Southerly winds will decrease to 5 to 10 mph
tonight. Winds on Tuesday will be south-southwest at 5 to 15 mph.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydro problems are expected over the next 5 days.
There is a chance of showers and a few thunderstorms today, as a
weakening frontal boundary approaches. There will be a better
likelihood of showers and thunderstorms across the region on
Tuesday, ahead of and along a cold front. Two day rainfall totals
could reach one half to one inch, with some isolated higher
amounts. Ponding of water will occur within any persistent
thunderstorms. A few lingering showers are possible Wednesday with
light qpf amounts.

Dry weather will return by Thursday, with high pressure moving
back in across the region.

The latest drought monitor now has most of our region labeled
`Abnormally Dry` (D0). In fact, over the past 30 days, most of our
region is approximately 1-3 inches below normal in terms of
rainfall.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...BGM/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...NAS/JPV

www.weather.gov/albany




000
FXUS61 KOKX 271342
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
942 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weakening cold front over the Lower Great Lakes this morning
dissipates to the west of the area later today. Another cold
front approaches from the west on Tuesday and moves across the
area Tuesday night into early Wednesday. The front moves farther
offshore Wednesday night. Weak high pressure returns Thursday
through Friday. Another cold front approaches late Friday moving
across Saturday and moving southeast of the region by next Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Minor adjustments were made to forecast based on latest conditions.

High pressure over the region this morning gives way to a
dissipating cold front approaching from the west. The latter of
which may produce a few showers late this afternoon to the north
and west of NYC. Chances are low though with warm heights aloft
resulting in weak instability. For the most part, expect mostly
sunny skies into early this afternoon with increasing mid and high
level clouds to follow from upstream convection.

The airmass will begin to become more humid as dew points rise
through the lower 60s this afternoon with south winds as highs as
15 to 20 mph at the coast.

There is a moderate risk for the development of rip currents at
Atlantic ocean beaches today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Mid level short wave trough passes through tonight with a few
showers possible. Next feature of interest will be a cold front
dropping SE across the Great Lakes tonight, approaching the NW
zones late tomorrow afternoon. Gradual height falls aloft and
increasing low-level moisture will allow for moderate instability
tomorrow afternoon, mainly across the interior. An onshore flow
near the coast will help to stabilize the airmass. The best chance
for isolated strong convection will be across the interior later
in the afternoon with CAPES over 1000 J/KG. Wind shear remains
weak, so not expecting any organization.

Conditions will be warm and muggy with dew points rising into the
upper 60s with with similar lows tonight. Highs on Tuesday may be
a degree or two cooler due to more cloud cover and continued
onshore flow. Coastal sections may have to contend with stratus
late tonight into Tuesday as the warm, moist air overruns the
cooler nearshore waters.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Upper level trough makes slow progress east across New England
Tuesday night through Wednesday. Associated PVA noted in most model
solutions traversing across the area through early Wednesday before
moving east.

This energy departs to the northeast as closed upper low moves
across Ontario Province late in the week, with a general trough
extending across the Great Lakes region toward the east. The closed
low moves east across Quebec Province, with lowering heights and
weak PVA moving across the northeast United States next weekend.

At the surface, a slow moving cold front approaches Tuesday evening,
with a wave of low pressure along the front to the west. The front
makes slow progress across the area Tuesday night, with another
frontal boundary lagging behind Wednesday before moving through
late. High pressure builds Thursday and Friday with another cold
front moving toward or through the area Saturday. Not too confident
in how far front moves for the latter portion of the weekend.

As for sensible weather, scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms are expected Tuesday night due to leftover moderate
instability, convergence along the front, upper level jet and PVA
aiding development. This chance continues overnight into Wednesday
due to continuation of upper support and cold front in the vicinity.
Would expect possible shower or thunderstorm development at any time
Tuesday night and Wednesday, mainly scattered in nature.

Dry weather expected Thursday and Friday with unsettled weather
returning next weekend.

Temperatures will average near normal, lower to middle 80s during
the day and 60s at night for the most part. Followed model blend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure off the Mid-Atlantic coast continues to drift into
the open Atlantic waters as a cold front approaches from the west.

VFR forecast through at least 06Z Tuesday.

MVFR conditions should hold off until after 06Z Tuesday as CIGs
lower to around 2500 feet. Showers possible towards daybreak
Tuesday and through Tuesday morning with MVFR conditions.

SW winds 5-10 KT will become S 10-15 KT later this morning. Sea
breezes will develop this afternoon, turning winds S. Coastal jet
will develop at KJFK, and winds will increase to 15-20 KT with 20-25
KT gusts there. For most other terminals, S winds will range from 10-
15 KT with gusts up to 20 KT.

S winds become SW after 00Z Tuesday, and diminish to 5-10 KT.

 ...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: Sea breeze likely after 15Z, and then winds
increase to 15-20 KT with gusts up to 25 KT after 18Z. Timing of
wind speed increases could be off by +/- 1-2 hours. Moderate
confidence in forecast.

KLGA TAF Comments: Sea breeze likely after 19Z. Timing could be off
by +/- 1-2 hours. Moderate confidence in forecast.

KEWR TAF Comments: S winds increase to 10-15 KT with gusts up to 20
KT after 17Z, but timing could be off by an hour or so. Moderate
confidence in forecast.

The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is GREEN...which implies
slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud.

KTEB TAF Comments: Moderate confidence in forecast. No unscheduled
AMDs expected.

KHPN TAF Comments: Moderate confidence in forecast. No unscheduled
AMDs expected.

KISP TAF Comments: Moderate confidence in forecast. Sea breeze
likely after 15Z, with speeds increasing to around 15 KT with gusts
up to 20 KT after 18Z. Timing could be off by an hour or so.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.Tuesday morning...MVFR or lower conditions possible, with
showers mainly from NYC metro north/west, and low clouds/patchy
fog along the coast especially KGON/KISP.

.Tuesday afternoon and night...MVFR or IFR conditions likely in
showers and tstms. Stratus and fog possible at night, with IFR or
lower conditions likely at coastal terminals.

.Wednesday morning...IFR or lower conditions still possible via
morning fog/low clouds and any stray showers.

.Wednesday afternoon through Thursday...VFR.

.Friday...MVFR or lower conditions with showers/tstms possible in
the late afternoon from NYC metro north/west, and throughout at
night.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas forecast on track. No changes at this time.

As high pressure drifts east today, southerly winds will increase
this afternoon with occasional gusts to near small craft levels,
mainly west of Fire Island Inlet to near the mouth of New York
Harbor. Similar conditions are forecast on Tuesday. Otherwise,
winds and seas will remain below small craft levels on all the
waters.

A slow moving cold front passes across the waters Tuesday
night through Wednesday as high pressure builds for the late
week period. Overall, the pressure gradient remains rather weak
during this time period. As such, expect seas and winds to
remain below small craft advisory thresholds.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Widespread significant rainfall is not anticipated through
the period. However, scattered showers and thunderstorms may
produce locally heavy downpours Tuesday night through Wednesday.
This could result in minor nuisance flooding.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KOKX 271121
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
721 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weakening cold front over the Lower Great Lakes this morning
dissipates to the west of the area later today. Another cold
front approaches from the west on Tuesday and moves across the
area Tuesday night into early Wednesday. The front moves farther
offshore Wednesday night. Weak high pressure returns Thursday
through Friday. Another cold front approaches late Friday moving
across Saturday and moving southeast of the region by next Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Minor adjustments were made to forecast based on latest conditions.

High pressure over the region this morning gives way to a
dissipating cold front approaching from the west. The latter of
which may produce a few showers late this afternoon to the north
and west of NYC. Chances are low though with warm heights aloft
resulting in weak instability. For the most part, expect mostly
sunny skies into early this afternoon with increasing mid and high
level clouds to follow from upstream convection.

Highs will range from the mid 70s at the coast to near 85 across
the interior. This looks to be a couple of degrees shy of normal.
It will also begin to become more humid as dew points rise through
the lower 60s this afternoon with south winds as highs as 15 to 20
mph at the coast.

There is a borderline low to moderate risk for the development of
rip currents at Atlantic ocean beaches today. If incoming swell
energy falls to around 1 ft as depicted by guidance, rip
development risk would be low, but there is some uncertainty on
how quickly that will occur. With that said, 15-20 kt afternoon
coastal jet development should have rip risk increasing to
moderate across NYC and Western LI beaches in the late
afternoon/evening with increased wind waves.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Mid level short wave trough passes through tonight with a few
showers possible. Next feature of interest will be a cold front
dropping SE across the Great Lakes tonight, approaching the NW
zones late tomorrow afternoon. Gradual height falls aloft and
increasing low-level moisture will allow for moderate instability
tomorrow afternoon, mainly across the interior. An onshore flow
near the coast will help to stabilize the airmass. The best chance
for isolated strong convection will be across the interior later
in the afternoon with CAPES over 1000 J/KG. Wind shear remains
weak, so not expecting any organization.

Conditions will be warm and muggy with dew points rising into the
upper 60s with with similar lows tonight. Highs on Tuesday may be
a degree or two cooler due to more cloud cover and continued
onshore flow. Coastal sections may have to contend with stratus
late tonight into Tuesday as the warm, moist air overruns the
cooler nearshore waters.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Upper level trough makes slow progress east across New England
Tuesday night through Wednesday. Associated PVA noted in most model
solutions traversing across the area through early Wednesday before
moving east.

This energy departs to the northeast as closed upper low moves
across Ontario Province late in the week, with a general trough
extending across the Great Lakes region toward the east. The closed
low moves east across Quebec Province, with lowering heights and
weak PVA moving across the northeast United States next weekend.

At the surface, a slow moving cold front approaches Tuesday evening,
with a wave of low pressure along the front to the west. The front
makes slow progress across the area Tuesday night, with another
frontal boundary lagging behind Wednesday before moving through
late. High pressure builds Thursday and Friday with another cold
front moving toward or through the area Saturday. Not too confident
in how far front moves for the latter portion of the weekend.

As for sensible weather, scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms are expected Tuesday night due to leftover moderate
instability, convergence along the front, upper level jet and PVA
aiding development. This chance continues overnight into Wednesday
due to continuation of upper support and cold front in the vicinity.
Would expect possible shower or thunderstorm development at any time
Tuesday night and Wednesday, mainly scattered in nature.

Dry weather expected Thursday and Friday with unsettled weather
returning next weekend.

Temperatures will average near normal, lower to middle 80s during
the day and 60s at night for the most part. Followed model blend.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure off the Mid-Atlantic coast continues to drift into
the open Atlantic waters as a cold front approaches from the west.

VFR forecast through at least 06Z Tuesday.

MVFR conditions should hold off until after 06Z Tuesday as CIGs
lower to around 2500 feet. Showers possible towards daybreak
Tuesday and through Tuesday morning with MVFR conditions.

SW winds 5-10 KT will become S 10-15 KT later this morning. Sea
breezes will develop this afternoon, turning winds S. Coastal jet
will develop at KJFK, and winds will increase to 15-20 KT with 20-25
KT gusts there. For most other terminals, S winds will range from 10-
15 KT with gusts up to 20 KT.

S winds become SW after 00Z Tuesday, and diminish to 5-10 KT.

 ...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: http://www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: Sea breeze likely after 15Z, and then winds
increase to 15-20 KT with gusts up to 25 KT after 18Z. Timing of
wind speed increases could be off by +/- 1-2 hours. Moderate
confidence in forecast.

KLGA TAF Comments: Sea breeze likely after 19Z. Timing could be off
by +/- 1-2 hours. Moderate confidence in forecast.

KEWR TAF Comments: S winds increase to 10-15 KT with gusts up to 20
KT after 17Z, but timing could be off by an hour or so. Moderate
confidence in forecast.

The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is GREEN...which implies
slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud.

KTEB TAF Comments: Moderate confidence in forecast. No unscheduled
AMDs expected.

KHPN TAF Comments: Moderate confidence in forecast. No unscheduled
AMDs expected.

KISP TAF Comments: Moderate confidence in forecast. Sea breeze
likely after 15Z, with speeds increasing to around 15 KT with gusts
up to 20 KT after 18Z. Timing could be off by an hour or so.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.Tuesday morning...MVFR or lower conditions possible, with
showers mainly from NYC metro north/west, and low clouds/patchy
fog along the coast especially KGON/KISP.

.Tuesday afternoon and night...MVFR or IFR conditions likely in
showers and tstms. Stratus and fog possible at night, with IFR or
lower conditions likely at coastal terminals.

.Wednesday morning...IFR or lower conditions still possible via
morning fog/low clouds and any stray showers.

.Wednesday afternoon through Thursday...VFR.

.Friday...MVFR or lower conditions with showers/tstms possible in
the late afternoon from NYC metro north/west, and throughout at
night.

&&

.MARINE...
As high pressure drifts east today, southerly winds will increase
this afternoon with occasional gusts to near small craft levels,
mainly west of Fire Island Inlet to near the mouth of New York
Harbor. Similar conditions are forecast on Tuesday. Otherwise,
winds and seas will remain below small craft levels on all the
waters.

A slow moving cold front passes across the waters Tuesday
night through Wednesday as high pressure builds for the late
week period. Overall, the pressure gradient remains rather weak
during this time period. As such, expect seas and winds to
remain below small craft advisory thresholds.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Widespread significant rainfall is not anticipated through
the period. However, scattered showers and thunderstorms may
produce locally heavy downpours Tuesday night through Wednesday.
This could result in minor nuisance flooding.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DW/PW
NEAR TERM...DW/PW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...DW/PW
HYDROLOGY...DW/PW




000
FXUS61 KOKX 271121
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
721 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weakening cold front over the Lower Great Lakes this morning
dissipates to the west of the area later today. Another cold
front approaches from the west on Tuesday and moves across the
area Tuesday night into early Wednesday. The front moves farther
offshore Wednesday night. Weak high pressure returns Thursday
through Friday. Another cold front approaches late Friday moving
across Saturday and moving southeast of the region by next Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Minor adjustments were made to forecast based on latest conditions.

High pressure over the region this morning gives way to a
dissipating cold front approaching from the west. The latter of
which may produce a few showers late this afternoon to the north
and west of NYC. Chances are low though with warm heights aloft
resulting in weak instability. For the most part, expect mostly
sunny skies into early this afternoon with increasing mid and high
level clouds to follow from upstream convection.

Highs will range from the mid 70s at the coast to near 85 across
the interior. This looks to be a couple of degrees shy of normal.
It will also begin to become more humid as dew points rise through
the lower 60s this afternoon with south winds as highs as 15 to 20
mph at the coast.

There is a borderline low to moderate risk for the development of
rip currents at Atlantic ocean beaches today. If incoming swell
energy falls to around 1 ft as depicted by guidance, rip
development risk would be low, but there is some uncertainty on
how quickly that will occur. With that said, 15-20 kt afternoon
coastal jet development should have rip risk increasing to
moderate across NYC and Western LI beaches in the late
afternoon/evening with increased wind waves.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Mid level short wave trough passes through tonight with a few
showers possible. Next feature of interest will be a cold front
dropping SE across the Great Lakes tonight, approaching the NW
zones late tomorrow afternoon. Gradual height falls aloft and
increasing low-level moisture will allow for moderate instability
tomorrow afternoon, mainly across the interior. An onshore flow
near the coast will help to stabilize the airmass. The best chance
for isolated strong convection will be across the interior later
in the afternoon with CAPES over 1000 J/KG. Wind shear remains
weak, so not expecting any organization.

Conditions will be warm and muggy with dew points rising into the
upper 60s with with similar lows tonight. Highs on Tuesday may be
a degree or two cooler due to more cloud cover and continued
onshore flow. Coastal sections may have to contend with stratus
late tonight into Tuesday as the warm, moist air overruns the
cooler nearshore waters.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Upper level trough makes slow progress east across New England
Tuesday night through Wednesday. Associated PVA noted in most model
solutions traversing across the area through early Wednesday before
moving east.

This energy departs to the northeast as closed upper low moves
across Ontario Province late in the week, with a general trough
extending across the Great Lakes region toward the east. The closed
low moves east across Quebec Province, with lowering heights and
weak PVA moving across the northeast United States next weekend.

At the surface, a slow moving cold front approaches Tuesday evening,
with a wave of low pressure along the front to the west. The front
makes slow progress across the area Tuesday night, with another
frontal boundary lagging behind Wednesday before moving through
late. High pressure builds Thursday and Friday with another cold
front moving toward or through the area Saturday. Not too confident
in how far front moves for the latter portion of the weekend.

As for sensible weather, scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms are expected Tuesday night due to leftover moderate
instability, convergence along the front, upper level jet and PVA
aiding development. This chance continues overnight into Wednesday
due to continuation of upper support and cold front in the vicinity.
Would expect possible shower or thunderstorm development at any time
Tuesday night and Wednesday, mainly scattered in nature.

Dry weather expected Thursday and Friday with unsettled weather
returning next weekend.

Temperatures will average near normal, lower to middle 80s during
the day and 60s at night for the most part. Followed model blend.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure off the Mid-Atlantic coast continues to drift into
the open Atlantic waters as a cold front approaches from the west.

VFR forecast through at least 06Z Tuesday.

MVFR conditions should hold off until after 06Z Tuesday as CIGs
lower to around 2500 feet. Showers possible towards daybreak
Tuesday and through Tuesday morning with MVFR conditions.

SW winds 5-10 KT will become S 10-15 KT later this morning. Sea
breezes will develop this afternoon, turning winds S. Coastal jet
will develop at KJFK, and winds will increase to 15-20 KT with 20-25
KT gusts there. For most other terminals, S winds will range from 10-
15 KT with gusts up to 20 KT.

S winds become SW after 00Z Tuesday, and diminish to 5-10 KT.

 ...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: http://www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: Sea breeze likely after 15Z, and then winds
increase to 15-20 KT with gusts up to 25 KT after 18Z. Timing of
wind speed increases could be off by +/- 1-2 hours. Moderate
confidence in forecast.

KLGA TAF Comments: Sea breeze likely after 19Z. Timing could be off
by +/- 1-2 hours. Moderate confidence in forecast.

KEWR TAF Comments: S winds increase to 10-15 KT with gusts up to 20
KT after 17Z, but timing could be off by an hour or so. Moderate
confidence in forecast.

The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is GREEN...which implies
slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud.

KTEB TAF Comments: Moderate confidence in forecast. No unscheduled
AMDs expected.

KHPN TAF Comments: Moderate confidence in forecast. No unscheduled
AMDs expected.

KISP TAF Comments: Moderate confidence in forecast. Sea breeze
likely after 15Z, with speeds increasing to around 15 KT with gusts
up to 20 KT after 18Z. Timing could be off by an hour or so.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.Tuesday morning...MVFR or lower conditions possible, with
showers mainly from NYC metro north/west, and low clouds/patchy
fog along the coast especially KGON/KISP.

.Tuesday afternoon and night...MVFR or IFR conditions likely in
showers and tstms. Stratus and fog possible at night, with IFR or
lower conditions likely at coastal terminals.

.Wednesday morning...IFR or lower conditions still possible via
morning fog/low clouds and any stray showers.

.Wednesday afternoon through Thursday...VFR.

.Friday...MVFR or lower conditions with showers/tstms possible in
the late afternoon from NYC metro north/west, and throughout at
night.

&&

.MARINE...
As high pressure drifts east today, southerly winds will increase
this afternoon with occasional gusts to near small craft levels,
mainly west of Fire Island Inlet to near the mouth of New York
Harbor. Similar conditions are forecast on Tuesday. Otherwise,
winds and seas will remain below small craft levels on all the
waters.

A slow moving cold front passes across the waters Tuesday
night through Wednesday as high pressure builds for the late
week period. Overall, the pressure gradient remains rather weak
during this time period. As such, expect seas and winds to
remain below small craft advisory thresholds.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Widespread significant rainfall is not anticipated through
the period. However, scattered showers and thunderstorms may
produce locally heavy downpours Tuesday night through Wednesday.
This could result in minor nuisance flooding.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DW/PW
NEAR TERM...DW/PW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...DW/PW
HYDROLOGY...DW/PW




000
FXUS61 KBOX 271052
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
652 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains in control Today into Tuesday. A cool front
will slowly approach the region, bringing showers and
thunderstorms late Tuesday through Wednesday. The front will push
offshore Wednesday night. High pressure then brings dry seasonable
weather for the late week. Another cold front may bring more
showers and thunderstorms around Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

7 AM update...

IR images show mostly clear skies this morning. Band of
clouds/showers over Western and Central NY is moving northeast.
Mid clouds leading these showers are drying up as they move
farther east. Net forward movement of the leading edge of thicker
sky cover would bring it to Western MA/CT 2-4 pm. This remains
in line with the existing forecast.  No changes planned.

Previous discussion...

Skies remain mainly clear early this morning except for some thin
patches of cirrus clouds crossing the area. Some patchy mid level
clouds trying to shift E-SE out of upstate NY as seen on latest IR
satellite imagery, but are tending to dissipate are they reach the
New England/NY border with very dry airmass aloft, as well as
ridging at the surface and aloft.

As H5 heights tend to lower during the day, the upper ridge will
recede southwestward as weak mid level trough sits over the Gulf
of Maine and E of Cape Cod. H5 short wave begins to dig across the
Great Lakes during the day. Lead pre-frontal trough heads out
ahead of the main short wave, so will see a line of showers/tstms
push across NY state during the day. Short range models continue
to suggest that some may begin to reach into the E slopes of the
Berkshires late in the day. Only mentioned slight chance POPs
there. Will see dry conditions for most areas through the day,
though clouds will increase across western areas this afternoon.

With the general S-SW winds in place, expect temps to top off in
the lower-mid 80s, except only in the 70s along the S coast with
the onshore winds. Will see a gradual increase in humidities
during the day, with dewpts reaching to around 60 along the S
coast by evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Tonight...

As pre-frontal trough slowly pushes eastward, it will weaken
tonight. However, could see enough forcing and dynamics work into
central and western areas to keep some scattered showers and even
an isold thunderstorm or two to move in. Noting as band of
increasing PWATs associated with this trough, on order of 1.6 to
1.8 inches with it. Dewpts will also continue to slowly increase
as well, so patchy fog could also develop with the precipitation
as well as along the S coast with the onshore winds.

Expect temps to fall back to the lower-mid 60s.

Tuesday...

H5 short wave works slowly eastward to W NY state Tuesday
afternoon/evening. Leftover instability with the weakening pre-
frontal trough becomes parallel to the SW upper flow ahead of the
short wave. Also, convection with the main front, which will cross
into eastern NY state during the afternoon, will refire and push
into central and western areas. Have carried mainly chance POPs
for most areas away from the coastal plain, with best shot from
the CT valley to the E slopes of the Berkshires. Will probably
see little if any precip through Tuesday across Cape Cod and the
islands.

Expect muggy conditions /dewpts in the lower-mid 60s/ with highs
running mainly in the mid 70s to around 80, though a bit cooler on
the outer Cape and islands.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Big Picture...

Longwave scale continues to show a ridge-west/trough-east pattern
over North America. This may shift east a little during the
holiday weekend. One shortwave rippling through this flow moves
across New England later Wednesday. A second moves down from
Canada and sweeps across New England next weekend.

Model mass fields are similar with the broad pattern through Friday.
There are differences in positioning of the cold front associated
with the first shortwave. The ECMWF is farthest west and the GGEM
farthest east. This means a consensus as to the broader forecast,
showers/tstms, but uncertainty regarding the details such as timing.
With the second shortwave, the GFS and ECMWF are similar while the
GGEM is slower and farther south. The mass field agreement and the
variations in details Tuesday night/Wednesday favor a blend of model
data.

Details...

Tuesday night through Wednesday...

Shortwave over the Eastern Great Lakes digs over New England while
the associated surface cold front moves through Eastern New York
Tuesday night and New England Wednesday. The upper flow through the
shortwave will be SSW to NNE across our area, almost parallel to the
cold front. Until the shortwave axis swings across our area and
turns the upper flow across the front, the cold front will move
very slowly.

Upper jet flowing through the shortwave will provide dynamic support
for lift. Model data shows precipitable water values pooling along
and just ahead of the front with max values 1.6 to 1.8 inches. Three
of four models show total-totals in the upper 40s Tuesday night
through Wednesday afternoon in the area leading the cold front.
Cross sections show the moisture will be through a deep column. All
of this points to showers and possible thunderstorms. We will stay
with likely pops Tuesday night and chance pops Wednesday.

Thursday through Saturday...

Weak high pressure builds over the region Thursday and lingers into
Friday. The second shortwave approaches with difluent flow aloft
Friday afternoon/evening and increasing precip water values toward
evening. Favorable instability remains to our west and northwest
during Friday but then moves across Southern New England Friday
night.

Timing on this shortwave and surface cold front will continue to
vary, but for now we will show chance pops for showers/tstms in
extreme western MA Friday afternoon and chance pops for most of the
area Friday night. Showers/thunder end from west to east Saturday
morning.

Temps aloft 13-15C should support max sfc temps in the low to mid
80s.

Sunday...

The Saturday cold front moves south of New England, but with long
range data suggesting it may stall to our south. In this scenario, a
low pressure wave would move along the front from the Ohio Valley
and pass south of us.  There is some potential for clouds and a
chance of showers for July 3rd, mostly along our South Coast with
diminishing likelihood to the north. This will need to be
monitored.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Tuesday/...

Today...High Confidence. VFR. Expect S-SW winds gradually
increasing, gusts up to 20-25 kt during the afternoon.

Tonight...Moderate Confidence. Mainly VFR. Scattered showers/isold
TSRA move into central and western areas mainly near or after
midnight with MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS. Low chance for LIFR CIGS in
stratus/fog across S coastal areas.

Tuesday...Moderate confidence. Low clouds and fog with patchy MVFR-
IFR conditions through 14Z along the S coast. Will see MVFR-IFR
conditions in scattered SHRA/TSRA, mainly from away from the coastal
plain through the day.

KBOS TAF...High confidence. VFR. S winds increase today, gusting up
to around 20 kts during the afternoon hours.

KBDL TAF...High confidence. VFR. Low to moderate chance for MVFR-
IFR CIGS/VSBYS late tonight in low clouds/fog.

Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/...

Tuesday night-Wednesday... Moderate confidence

VFR with areas of MVFR in showers and thunderstorms Tuesday night
and Wednesday morning. Areas of IFR possible in fog and low clouds.
South winds gusting to 20 knots will shift from the West after the
cold front moves through Wednesday.

Thursday-Friday...Moderate confidence

VFR. North winds become variable Thursday, then from the south
Friday.  Showers/tstms will develop over New York State, and may
move into Southern New England Friday evening and night. These
showers and storms would have areas of MVFR cigs/vsbys.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Tuesday/...

Today...High confidence. Expect south winds to increase this
afternoon. Gusts will reach to around 25 kt on the eastern outer
waters from N of Cape Cod to Cape Ann. Seas also build to around
5 ft there. Small craft advisory in effect. Elsewhere, will see
gusts up to 20 kt with seas 4 ft or less.

Tonight...Moderate confidence. Small crafts will continue for the
waters from N of Cape Cod to Cape Ann, though winds and seas
should diminish after midnight. Otherwise, winds and seas below
small craft. Reduced visibilities around or after midnight in
patchy fog, mainly over the open waters. Widely scattered
showers/thunderstorms toward daybreak off Cape Ann, and scattered
showers from Block Island westward.

Tuesday...Moderate confidence. South winds continue, with some
gusts up to 20 kt on the eastern outer waters. Seas 4 ft or less.
Reduced visibilities in patchy morning fog. Chance for
showers/thunderstorms mainly on the near shore waters.

Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/...

Tuesday night-Wednesday...Moderate confidence.

Showers and thunderstorms cross the waters with south wind gusts
near 20 knots at times. Winds shift from the west Wednesday as a
cold front crosses the waters.  Low vsbys possible ahead of the cold
front in showers and storms as well as in fog.  No headlines planned
at this time.

Thursday-Friday...Moderate confidence.

High pressure builds over the waters Thursday and moves off to the
east Friday.  A cold front approaches from the west Friday night.
Winds and seas should remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria.
Scattered showers/thunderstorms possible Friday night as the cold
front approaches.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 2 AM EDT
     Tuesday for ANZ250.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB/EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 271052
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
652 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains in control Today into Tuesday. A cool front
will slowly approach the region, bringing showers and
thunderstorms late Tuesday through Wednesday. The front will push
offshore Wednesday night. High pressure then brings dry seasonable
weather for the late week. Another cold front may bring more
showers and thunderstorms around Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

7 AM update...

IR images show mostly clear skies this morning. Band of
clouds/showers over Western and Central NY is moving northeast.
Mid clouds leading these showers are drying up as they move
farther east. Net forward movement of the leading edge of thicker
sky cover would bring it to Western MA/CT 2-4 pm. This remains
in line with the existing forecast.  No changes planned.

Previous discussion...

Skies remain mainly clear early this morning except for some thin
patches of cirrus clouds crossing the area. Some patchy mid level
clouds trying to shift E-SE out of upstate NY as seen on latest IR
satellite imagery, but are tending to dissipate are they reach the
New England/NY border with very dry airmass aloft, as well as
ridging at the surface and aloft.

As H5 heights tend to lower during the day, the upper ridge will
recede southwestward as weak mid level trough sits over the Gulf
of Maine and E of Cape Cod. H5 short wave begins to dig across the
Great Lakes during the day. Lead pre-frontal trough heads out
ahead of the main short wave, so will see a line of showers/tstms
push across NY state during the day. Short range models continue
to suggest that some may begin to reach into the E slopes of the
Berkshires late in the day. Only mentioned slight chance POPs
there. Will see dry conditions for most areas through the day,
though clouds will increase across western areas this afternoon.

With the general S-SW winds in place, expect temps to top off in
the lower-mid 80s, except only in the 70s along the S coast with
the onshore winds. Will see a gradual increase in humidities
during the day, with dewpts reaching to around 60 along the S
coast by evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Tonight...

As pre-frontal trough slowly pushes eastward, it will weaken
tonight. However, could see enough forcing and dynamics work into
central and western areas to keep some scattered showers and even
an isold thunderstorm or two to move in. Noting as band of
increasing PWATs associated with this trough, on order of 1.6 to
1.8 inches with it. Dewpts will also continue to slowly increase
as well, so patchy fog could also develop with the precipitation
as well as along the S coast with the onshore winds.

Expect temps to fall back to the lower-mid 60s.

Tuesday...

H5 short wave works slowly eastward to W NY state Tuesday
afternoon/evening. Leftover instability with the weakening pre-
frontal trough becomes parallel to the SW upper flow ahead of the
short wave. Also, convection with the main front, which will cross
into eastern NY state during the afternoon, will refire and push
into central and western areas. Have carried mainly chance POPs
for most areas away from the coastal plain, with best shot from
the CT valley to the E slopes of the Berkshires. Will probably
see little if any precip through Tuesday across Cape Cod and the
islands.

Expect muggy conditions /dewpts in the lower-mid 60s/ with highs
running mainly in the mid 70s to around 80, though a bit cooler on
the outer Cape and islands.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Big Picture...

Longwave scale continues to show a ridge-west/trough-east pattern
over North America. This may shift east a little during the
holiday weekend. One shortwave rippling through this flow moves
across New England later Wednesday. A second moves down from
Canada and sweeps across New England next weekend.

Model mass fields are similar with the broad pattern through Friday.
There are differences in positioning of the cold front associated
with the first shortwave. The ECMWF is farthest west and the GGEM
farthest east. This means a consensus as to the broader forecast,
showers/tstms, but uncertainty regarding the details such as timing.
With the second shortwave, the GFS and ECMWF are similar while the
GGEM is slower and farther south. The mass field agreement and the
variations in details Tuesday night/Wednesday favor a blend of model
data.

Details...

Tuesday night through Wednesday...

Shortwave over the Eastern Great Lakes digs over New England while
the associated surface cold front moves through Eastern New York
Tuesday night and New England Wednesday. The upper flow through the
shortwave will be SSW to NNE across our area, almost parallel to the
cold front. Until the shortwave axis swings across our area and
turns the upper flow across the front, the cold front will move
very slowly.

Upper jet flowing through the shortwave will provide dynamic support
for lift. Model data shows precipitable water values pooling along
and just ahead of the front with max values 1.6 to 1.8 inches. Three
of four models show total-totals in the upper 40s Tuesday night
through Wednesday afternoon in the area leading the cold front.
Cross sections show the moisture will be through a deep column. All
of this points to showers and possible thunderstorms. We will stay
with likely pops Tuesday night and chance pops Wednesday.

Thursday through Saturday...

Weak high pressure builds over the region Thursday and lingers into
Friday. The second shortwave approaches with difluent flow aloft
Friday afternoon/evening and increasing precip water values toward
evening. Favorable instability remains to our west and northwest
during Friday but then moves across Southern New England Friday
night.

Timing on this shortwave and surface cold front will continue to
vary, but for now we will show chance pops for showers/tstms in
extreme western MA Friday afternoon and chance pops for most of the
area Friday night. Showers/thunder end from west to east Saturday
morning.

Temps aloft 13-15C should support max sfc temps in the low to mid
80s.

Sunday...

The Saturday cold front moves south of New England, but with long
range data suggesting it may stall to our south. In this scenario, a
low pressure wave would move along the front from the Ohio Valley
and pass south of us.  There is some potential for clouds and a
chance of showers for July 3rd, mostly along our South Coast with
diminishing likelihood to the north. This will need to be
monitored.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Tuesday/...

Today...High Confidence. VFR. Expect S-SW winds gradually
increasing, gusts up to 20-25 kt during the afternoon.

Tonight...Moderate Confidence. Mainly VFR. Scattered showers/isold
TSRA move into central and western areas mainly near or after
midnight with MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS. Low chance for LIFR CIGS in
stratus/fog across S coastal areas.

Tuesday...Moderate confidence. Low clouds and fog with patchy MVFR-
IFR conditions through 14Z along the S coast. Will see MVFR-IFR
conditions in scattered SHRA/TSRA, mainly from away from the coastal
plain through the day.

KBOS TAF...High confidence. VFR. S winds increase today, gusting up
to around 20 kts during the afternoon hours.

KBDL TAF...High confidence. VFR. Low to moderate chance for MVFR-
IFR CIGS/VSBYS late tonight in low clouds/fog.

Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/...

Tuesday night-Wednesday... Moderate confidence

VFR with areas of MVFR in showers and thunderstorms Tuesday night
and Wednesday morning. Areas of IFR possible in fog and low clouds.
South winds gusting to 20 knots will shift from the West after the
cold front moves through Wednesday.

Thursday-Friday...Moderate confidence

VFR. North winds become variable Thursday, then from the south
Friday.  Showers/tstms will develop over New York State, and may
move into Southern New England Friday evening and night. These
showers and storms would have areas of MVFR cigs/vsbys.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Tuesday/...

Today...High confidence. Expect south winds to increase this
afternoon. Gusts will reach to around 25 kt on the eastern outer
waters from N of Cape Cod to Cape Ann. Seas also build to around
5 ft there. Small craft advisory in effect. Elsewhere, will see
gusts up to 20 kt with seas 4 ft or less.

Tonight...Moderate confidence. Small crafts will continue for the
waters from N of Cape Cod to Cape Ann, though winds and seas
should diminish after midnight. Otherwise, winds and seas below
small craft. Reduced visibilities around or after midnight in
patchy fog, mainly over the open waters. Widely scattered
showers/thunderstorms toward daybreak off Cape Ann, and scattered
showers from Block Island westward.

Tuesday...Moderate confidence. South winds continue, with some
gusts up to 20 kt on the eastern outer waters. Seas 4 ft or less.
Reduced visibilities in patchy morning fog. Chance for
showers/thunderstorms mainly on the near shore waters.

Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/...

Tuesday night-Wednesday...Moderate confidence.

Showers and thunderstorms cross the waters with south wind gusts
near 20 knots at times. Winds shift from the west Wednesday as a
cold front crosses the waters.  Low vsbys possible ahead of the cold
front in showers and storms as well as in fog.  No headlines planned
at this time.

Thursday-Friday...Moderate confidence.

High pressure builds over the waters Thursday and moves off to the
east Friday.  A cold front approaches from the west Friday night.
Winds and seas should remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria.
Scattered showers/thunderstorms possible Friday night as the cold
front approaches.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 2 AM EDT
     Tuesday for ANZ250.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB/EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT




000
FXUS61 KALY 271030
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
630 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A series of cold fronts will move eastward across the region late
today through Tuesday night, bringing rounds of showers and
thunderstorms. High pressure will then build in from the Midwest
by Wednesday night, with dry weather returning.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 630 AM EDT...Most of the area remains mostly sunny at this
time, although clouds are thickening across areas north and west
of the Capital District as a pre-frontal trough approaches from
the eastern Great Lakes. Temps are very warm for early morning,
mainly in the 60s.

A solid band of showers with embedded isolated thunder extends
from near the St. Lawrence valley south and west across
central/western New York. These showers will gradually shift
eastward into mainly the NW half of the area through the morning
hours. Not much surface based instability will develop due to
extensive cloud cover moving in, but some elevated instability
will lead to some embedded thunder. The showers and storms will
tend to decrease in coverage by later in the afternoon and
especially the evening, due to weakening of the trough as it moves
eastward across the area.

Some breaks of sunshine are expected late in the day, which
should help boost max temps into the lower to mid 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The aforementioned pre-frontal trough will stall and become
diffuse near western New England tonight. So will only mention
isolated to widely scattered showers. It will be another mild
night with a southerly breezy persisting, with low temps in the
60s.

Tuesday is expected to be the most active day of the week in
terms of convective potential. At the surface, a cold front will
gradually push eastward across the region during the afternoon and
evening. Aloft, a positive to neutral tilt upper level trough is
forecast to deepen just to our west over the eastern Great Lakes.
Height falls and cyclonic vorticity advection aloft combined with
low level convergence along the cold front should result in fairly
widespread showers and thunderstorms to develop, especially during
the afternoon across eastern NY spreading eastward to western New
England by evening.

There is a marginal risk for some of the thunderstorms to become
severe if sufficient instability can develop. Some breaks of
sunshine are expected ahead of the cold front, but it is unclear
how unstable it will get as model guidance differs with the GFS
indicating 500-1500 J/Kg of SBCAPE, while the NAM has more robust
values of around 1500-3000 J/Kg. Should more sunshine materialize,
the NAM values would be reasonable, but this is uncertain at this
time. Deep layer shear will be increasing to around 25-40 kt, so
organized severe storms will be possible given ample buoyancy.
Will mention the marginal risk in HWO.

Showers will continue Tuesday night, as the cold front only
gradually makes eastward progress, while the upper level trough
axis remains to our west with a continued cyclonic flow.
Coverage/intensity of thunder should decrease by late evening
though as instability is forecast to wane.

Will continue to mention chance pops for scattered showers with
isolated thunder for Wednesday, siding with the slower ECMWF/NAM
guidance compared to faster GFS. The upper level trough may become
a closed low, which would slow its progress. The more progressive
GFS continues to show and open wave. Max temps Wednesday should be
cooler than recent days, but close to normal for late June.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The period is expected to start out with fair weather and
seasonably warm temperatures. At the surface high pressure is
expected to be over the region. While aloft, the region is
expected to be between short wave trough.

A cold front will be on the approaches from the northwest as we
close out the work week and head into the long holiday weekend.
Convection is expected as the front approaches on Friday and
crosses the region Friday night.

Guidance indicates an upper level low should develop over the
Great Lakes region with it becoming stacked. This stacked low then
is modeled to move gradually eastward across eastern Canada over
the holiday weekend as short waves rotating about it maintaining
an upper level trough over the region. At this time, it appears
the weather across the local area should be fair for the holiday
weekend as the upper low is modeled to remain far enough to our
north while the cold front that moves through is forecast to stall
far enough to our south. A wave of low pressure is expected to
move eastward along this boundary. Subtle changes in the expected
locations of these features will result in changes to a fair
weather forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure along the Atlantic seaboard will weaken and slide
offshore today. In the meantime, a cold front will approach from
the west. Heights will fall across the region however upper level
support will remain well to the west. convection to move across
across the local area today impacting the TAF sites mainly during
the afternoon into the evening.

Expecting VFR conditions to prevail through much of the evening.
MVFR conditions are expected to develop overnight initially due
to ceilings then some fog is expected to form.

South-southwest flow will increasing to 10 to 12 knots with some
gusts into the 20s. The winds will decrease in the evening.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A series of cold fronts will move eastward across the region late
today through Tuesday night, bringing rounds of showers and
thunderstorms. High pressure will then build in from the Midwest
by Wednesday night, with dry weather returning.

Minimum relative humidity values this afternoon are expected to
be around 35 to 50 percent. RH values will then increase to
between 80 and 100 percent tonight. Minimum RH values on Tuesday
will be around 50 to 60 percent.

Winds today will be southerly around 10 to 15 mph with gusts
around 20 mph. Southerly winds will decrease to 5 to 10 mph
tonight. Winds on Tuesday will be south-southwest at 5 to 15 mph.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydro problems are expected over the next 5 days.
There is a chance of showers and a few thunderstorms today, as a
weakening frontal boundary approaches. There will be a better
likelihood of showers and thunderstorms across the region on
Tuesday, ahead of and along a cold front. Two day rainfall totals
could reach one half to one inch, with some isolated higher
amounts. Ponding of water will occur within any persistent
thunderstorms. A few lingering showers are possible Wednesday with
light qpf amounts.

Dry weather will return by Thursday, with high pressure moving
back in across the region.

The latest drought monitor now has most of our region labeled
`Abnormally Dry` (D0). In fact, over the past 30 days, most of our
region is approximately 1-3 inches below normal in terms of
rainfall.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...NAS/JPV




000
FXUS61 KOKX 271005
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
605 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weakening cold front over the Lower Great Lakes this morning
dissipates to the west of the area later today. Another cold
front approaches from the west on Tuesday and moves across the
area Tuesday night into early Wednesday. The front moves farther
offshore Wednesday night. Weak high pressure returns Thursday
through Friday. Another cold front approaches late Friday moving
across Saturday and moving southeast of the region by next Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Minor adjustments were made to forecast based on latest conditions.

High pressure over the region this morning gives way to a
dissipating cold front approaching from the west. The later of
which may produce a few showers late this afternoon to the north
and west of NYC. Chances are low though with warm heights aloft
resulting in weak instability. For the most part, expect mostly
sunny skies into early this afternoon with increasing mid and high
level clouds to follow from upstream convection.

Highs will range from the mid 70s at coast to near 85 across the
interior. This looks to be a couple of degrees shy of normal. It
will also begin to become more humid as dew points rise through
the lower 60s this afternoon with south winds as highs as 15 to
20 mph at the coast.

There is a borderline low to moderate risk for the development of
rip currents at Atlantic ocean beaches today. If incoming swell
energy falls to around 1 ft as depicted by guidance, rip
development risk would be low, but there is some uncertainty on
how quickly that will occur. With that said, 15-20 kt afternoon
coastal jet development should have rip risk increasing to
moderate across NYC and Western LI beaches in the late
afternoon/evening with increased wind waves.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Mid level short wave trough passes through tonight with a few
showers possible. Next feature of interest will be a cold front
dropping SE across the Great Lakes tonight, approaching the NW
zones late tomorrow afternoon. Gradual height falls aloft and
increasing low-level moisture will allow for moderate instability
tomorrow afternoon, mainly across the interior. An onshore flow
near the coast will help to stabilize the airmass. The best chance
for isolated strong convection will be across the interior later
in the afternoon with CAPES over 1000 J/KG. Wind shear remains
weak, so not expecting any organization.

Conditions will be warm and muggy with dew points rising into the
upper 60s with with similar lows tonight. Highs on Tuesday may be
a degree or two cooler due to more cloud cover and continued
onshore flow. Coastal sections may have to contend with stratus
late tonight into Tuesday as the warm, moist air overruns the
cooler nearshore waters.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Upper level trough makes slow progress east across New England
Tuesday night through Wednesday. Associated PVA noted in most model
solutions traversing across the area through early Wednesday before
moving east.

This energy departs to the northeast as closed upper low moves
across Ontario Province late in the week, with a general trough
extending across the Great Lakes region toward the east. The closed
low moves east across Quebec Province, with lowering heights and
weak PVA moving across the northeast United States next weekend.

At the surface, a slow moving cold front approaches Tuesday evening,
with a wave of low pressure along the front to the west. The front
makes slow progress across the area Tuesday night, with another
frontal boundary lagging behind Wednesday before moving through
late. High pressure builds Thursday and Friday with another cold
front moving toward or through the area Saturday. Not too confident
in how far front moves for the latter portion of the weekend.

As for sensible weather, scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms are expected Tuesday night due to leftover moderate
instability, convergence along the front, upper level jet and PVA
aiding development. This chance continues overnight into Wednesday
due to continuation of upper support and cold front in the vicinity.
Would expect possible shower or thunderstorm development at any time
Tuesday night and Wednesday, mainly scattered in nature.

Dry weather expected Thursday and Friday with unsettled weather
returning next weekend.

Temperatures will average near normal, lower to middle 80s during
the day and 60s at night for the most part. Followed model blend.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure over the western Atlantic continues to drift into the
open Atlantic waters as a cold front approaches from the west.

VFR forecast through 06Z Tuesday. Only exception will be for some
potential fog at KGON from around 10-12Z this morning. In addition,
some stratus is possible along the coast, with FEW005-007 possible
during the early morning hours.

FEW-SCT clouds at 1500-2500 feet will spread through the terminals
ahead of that approaching cold front today, and another area of FEW-
SCT clouds at 5000 feet will develop this afternoon.

MVFR conditions will hold off until after 06Z, so the 30 hour TAFs
of KJFK/KEWR/KSWF will be impacted by precip late in the TAF period.

SW winds 5-10 KT will become S 10-15 KT later this morning. Sea
breezes will develop this afternoon, turning winds S. Coastal jet
will develop at KJFK, and winds will increase to 15-20 KT with 20-25
KT gusts there. For most other terminals, S winds will range from 10-
15 KT with gusts up to 20 KT.

S winds become SW after 00Z Tuesday, and diminish to 5-10 KT.

     NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: Sea breeze likely after 15Z, and then winds
increase to 15-20 KT with gusts up to 25 KT after 18Z. Timing of
wind speed increases could be off by +/- 1-2 hours. Moderate
confidence in forecast.

KLGA TAF Comments: Sea breeze likely after 19Z. Timing could be off
by +/- 1-2 hours. Moderate confidence in forecast.

KEWR TAF Comments: S winds increase to 10-15 KT with gusts up to 20
KT after 17Z, but timing could be off by an hour or so. Moderate
confidence in forecast.

The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is GREEN...which implies
slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud.

KTEB TAF Comments: Moderate confidence in forecast. No unscheduled
AMDs expected.

KHPN TAF Comments: Moderate confidence in forecast. No unscheduled
AMDs expected.

KISP TAF Comments: Moderate confidence in forecast. Sea breeze
likely after 15Z, with speeds increasing to around 15 KT with gusts
up to 20 KT after 18Z. Timing could be off by an hour or so.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.Tonight into Tuesday morning...S winds G20KT along the coast in
the early evening. MVFR or lower conditions possible, with showers
mainly from NYC metro north/west, and low clouds/patchy fog along
the coast especially KGON/KISP.

.Tuesday afternoon and night...MVFR or IFR conditions likely in
showers and tstms. Stratus and fog possible at night, with IFR or
lower conditions likely at coastal terminals.

.Wednesday morning...IFR or lower conditions still possible via
morning fog/low clouds and any stray showers.

.Wednesday afternoon through Thursday...VFR.

.Friday...MVFR or lower conditions with showers/tstms possible in
the late afternoon from NYC metro north/west, and throughout at
night.

&&

.MARINE...
As high pressure drifts east today, southerly winds will increase
this afternoon with occasional gusts to near small craft levels,
mainly west of Fire Island Inlet to near the mouth of New York
Harbor. Similar conditions are forecast on Tuesday. Otherwise,
winds and seas will remain below small craft levels on all the
waters.

A slow moving cold front passes across the waters Tuesday
night through Wednesday as high pressure builds for the late
week period. Overall, the pressure gradient remains rather weak
during this time period. As such, expect seas and winds to
remain below small craft advisory thresholds.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Widespread significant rainfall is not anticipated through
the period. However, scattered showers and thunderstorms may
produce locally heavy downpours Tuesday night through Wednesday.
This could result in minor nuisance flooding.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DW/PW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...DW/PW
HYDROLOGY...DW/PW




000
FXUS61 KBOX 270855
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
455 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains in control today into Tuesday. A cool front
will slowly approach the region, bringing showers and
thunderstorms late Tuesday through Wednesday. The front will push
offshore Wednesday night. High pressure then brings dry seasonable
weather for the late week. Another cold front may bring more
showers and thunderstorms around Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

Skies remain mainly clear early this morning except for some thin
patches of cirrus clouds crossing the area. Some patchy mid level
clouds trying to shift E-SE out of upstate NY as seen on latest IR
satellite imagery, but are tending to dissipate are they reach the
New England/NY border with very dry airmass aloft, as well as
ridging at the surface and aloft.

As H5 heights tend to lower during the day, the upper ridge will
recede southwestward as weak mid level trough sits over the Gulf
of Maine and E of Cape Cod. H5 short wave begins to dig across the
Great Lakes during the day. Lead pre-frontal trough heads out
ahead of the main short wave, so will see a line of showers/tstms
push across NY state during the day. Short range models continue
to suggest that some may begin to reach into the E slopes of the
Berkshires late in the day. Only mentioned slight chance POPs
there. Will see dry conditions for most areas through the day,
though clouds will increase across western areas this afternoon.

With the general S-SW winds in place, expect temps to top off in
the lower-mid 80s, except only in the 70s along the S coast with
the onshore winds. Will see a gradual increase in humidities
during the day, with dewpts reaching to around 60 along the S
coast by evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...

Tonight...

As pre-frontal trough slowly pushes eastward, it will weaken
tonight. However, could see enough forcing and dynamics work into
central and western areas to keep some scattered showers and even
an isold thunderstorm or two to move in. Noting as band of
increasing PWATs associated with this trough, on order of 1.6 to
1.8 inches with it. Dewpts will also continue to slowly increase
as well, so patchy fog could also develop with the precipitation
as well as along the S coast with the onshore winds.

Expect temps to fall back to the lower-mid 60s.

Tuesday...

H5 short wave works slowly eastward to W NY state Tuesday
afternoon/evening. Leftover instability with the weakening pre-
frontal trough becomes parallel to the SW upper flow ahead of the
short wave. Also, convection with the main front, which will cross
into eastern NY state during the afternoon, will refire and push
into central and western areas. Have carried mainly chance POPs
for most areas away from the coastal plain, with best shot from
the CT valley to the E slopes of the Berkshires. Will probably
see little if any precip through Tuesday across Cape Cod and the
islands.

Expect muggy conditions /dewpts in the lower-mid 60s/ with highs
running mainly in the mid 70s to around 80, though a bit cooler on
the outer Cape and islands.


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Big Picture...

Longwave scale continues to show a ridge-west/trough-east pattern
over North America. This may shift east a little during the
holiday weekend. One shortwave rippling through this flow moves
across New England later Wednesday. A second moves down from
Canada and sweeps across New England next weekend.

Model mass fields are similar with the broad pattern through Friday.
There are differences in positioning of the cold front associated
with the first shortwave. The ECMWF is farthest west and the GGEM
farthest east. This means a consensus as to the broader forecast,
showers/tstms, but uncertainty regarding the details such as timing.
With the second shortwave, the GFS and ECMWF are similar while the
GGEM is slower and farther south. The mass field agreement and the
variations in details Tuesday night/Wednesday favor a blend of model
data.

Details...

Tuesday night through Wednesday...

Shortwave over the Eastern Great Lakes digs over New England while
the associated surface cold front moves through Eastern New York
Tuesday night and New England Wednesday. The upper flow through the
shortwave will be SSW to NNE across our area, almost parallel to the
cold front. Until the shortwave axis swings across our area and
turns the upper flow across the front, the cold front will move
very slowly.

Upper jet flowing through the shortwave will provide dynamic support
for lift. Model data shows precipitable water values pooling along
and just ahead of the front with max values 1.6 to 1.8 inches. Three
of four models show total-totals in the upper 40s Tuesday night
through Wednesday afternoon in the area leading the cold front.
Cross sections show the moisture will be through a deep column. All
of this points to showers and possible thunderstorms. We will stay
with likely pops Tuesday night and chance pops Wednesday.

Thursday through Saturday...

Weak high pressure builds over the region Thursday and lingers into
Friday. The second shortwave approaches with difluent flow aloft
Friday afternoon/evening and increasing precip water values toward
evening. Favorable instability remains to our west and northwest
during Friday but then moves across Southern New England Friday
night.

Timing on this shortwave and surface cold front will continue to
vary, but for now we will show chance pops for showers/tstms in
extreme western MA Friday afternoon and chance pops for most of the
area Friday night. Showers/thunder end from west to east Saturday
morning.

Temps aloft 13-15C should support max sfc temps in the low to mid
80s.

Sunday...

The Saturday cold front moves south of New England, but with long
range data suggesting it may stall to our south. In this scenario, a
low pressure wave would move along the front from the Ohio Valley
and pass south of us.  There is some potential for clouds and a
chance of showers for July 3rd, mostly along our South Coast with
diminishing likelihood to the north. This will need to be
monitored.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Tuesday/...

Through 12Z...High Confidence. VFR. Brief local IFR-LIFR
conditions in patchy ground fog and/or low clouds in normally
prone valley areas.

Today...High Confidence. VFR. Any IFR-LIFR fog/CIGS dissipate by
13Z. Expect S-SW winds gradually increasing, gusts up to 20-25 kt
during the afternoon.

Tonight...Moderate Confidence. Mainly VFR. Scattered showers/isold
TSRA move into central and western areas mainly near or after
midnight with MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS. Low chance for LIFR CIGS in
stratus/fog across S coastal areas.

Tuesday...Moderate confidence. Low clouds and fog with patchy MVFR-
IFR conditions through 14Z along the S coast. Will see MVFR-IFR
conditions in scattered SHRA/TSRA, mainly from away from the coastal
plain through the day.

KBOS TAF...High confidence. VFR. S winds increase today, gusting up
to around 20 kts during the afternoon hours.

KBDL TAF...High confidence. VFR. Low to moderate chance for MVFR-
IFR CIGS/VSBYS late tonight in low clouds/fog.

Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/...

Tuesday night-Wednesday... Moderate confidence

VFR with areas of MVFR in showers and thunderstorms Tuesday night
and Wednesday morning. Areas of IFR possible in fog and low clouds.
South winds gusting to 20 knots will shift from the West after the
cold front moves through Wednesday.

Thursday-Friday...Moderate confidence

VFR. North winds become variable Thursday, then from the south
Friday.  Showers/tstms will develop over New York State, and may
move into Southern New England Friday evening and night. These
showers and storms would have areas of MVFR cigs/vsbys.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Tuesday/...

Today...High confidence. Expect south winds to increase this
afternoon. Gusts will reach to around 25 kt on the eastern outer
waters from N of Cape Cod to Cape Ann. Seas also build to around
5 ft there. Small craft advisory in effect. Elsewhere, will see
gusts up to 20 kt with seas 4 ft or less.

Tonight...Moderate confidence. Small crafts will continue for the
waters from N of Cape Cod to Cape Ann, though winds and seas
should diminish after midnight. Otherwise, winds and seas below
small craft. Reduced visibilities around or after midnight in
patchy fog, mainly over the open waters. Widely scattered
showers/thunderstorms toward daybreak off Cape Ann, and scattered
showers from Block Island westward.

Tuesday...Moderate confidence. South winds continue, with some
gusts up to 20 kt on the eastern outer waters. Seas 4 ft or less.
Reduced visibilities in patchy morning fog. Chance for
showers/thunderstorms mainly on the near shore waters.

Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/...

Tuesday night-Wednesday...Moderate confidence.

Showers and thunderstorms cross the waters with south wind gusts
near 20 knots at times. Winds shift from the west Wednesday as a
cold front crosses the waters.  Low vsbys possible ahead of the cold
front in showers and storms as well as in fog.  No headlines planned
at this time.

Thursday-Friday...Moderate confidence.

High pressure builds over the waters Thursday and moves off to the
east Friday.  A cold front approaches from the west Friday night.
Winds and seas should remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria.
Scattered showers/thunderstorms possible Friday night as the cold
front approaches.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

With the long term dry conditions across the region over the last
few weeks and beyond, expect another dry and breezy day today.
Will see south-southwest winds pick up mainly this afternoon,
with gusts up to 25-30 mph. Expect the highest winds gusts across
eastern Massachusetts as well as the Connecticut River valley.

Minimum relative humidities will drop off to between 30 and 40
percent from northern Connecticut, northern Rhode Island into
interior southeast Massachusetts northward from late morning into
late this afternoon.

Will continue to monitor the fire weather conditions through this
afternoon.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 2 AM EDT
     Tuesday for ANZ250.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT




000
FXUS61 KALY 270820
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
420 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A series of cold fronts will move eastward across the region late
today through Tuesday night, bringing rounds of showers and
thunderstorms. High pressure will then build in from the Midwest
by Wednesday night, with dry weather returning.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 400 AM EDT...Most of the area remains mainly clear early
this morning, although clouds are thickening across areas north
and west of the Capital District as a pre-frontal trough
approaches from the eastern Great Lakes.

A solid band of showers with embedded isolated thunder extends
from central/eastern Lake Ontario south and west across western
New York state. These showers will gradually shift eastward into
mainly the NW half of the area through the morning hours. Not much
surface based instability will develop due to extensive cloud
cover moving in, but some elevated instability will lead to some
embedded thunder. The showers and storms will tend to decrease in
coverage by later in the afternoon and especially the evening, due
to weakening of the trough as it moves across the area.

Some breaks of sunshine are expected late in the day, which
should help boost max temps into the lower to mid 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The aforementioned pre-frontal trough will stall and become
diffuse near western New England tonight. So will only mention
isolated to widely scattered showers. It will be another mild
night with a southerly breezy persisting, with low temps in the
60s.

Tuesday is expected to be the most active day of the week in
terms of convective potential. At the surface, a cold front will
gradually push eastward across the region during the afternoon and
evening. Aloft, a positive to neutral tilt upper level trough is
forecast to deepen just to our west over the eastern Great Lakes.
Height falls and cyclonic vorticity advection aloft combined with
low level convergence along the cold front should result in fairly
widespread showers and thunderstorms to develop, especially during
the afternoon across eastern NY spreading eastward to western New
England by evening.

There is a marginal risk for some of the thunderstorms to become
severe if sufficient instability can develop. Some breaks of
sunshine are expected ahead of the cold front, but it is unclear
how unstable it will get as model guidance differs with the GFS
indicating 500-1500 J/Kg of SBCAPE, while the NAM has more robust
values of around 1500-3000 J/Kg. Should more sunshine materialize,
the NAM values would be reasonable, but this is uncertain at this
time. Deep layer shear will be increasing to around 25-40 kt, so
organized severe storms will be possible given ample buoyancy.
Will mention the marginal risk in HWO.

Showers will continue Tuesday night, as the cold front only
gradually makes eastward progress, while the upper level trough
axis remains to our west with a continued cyclonic flow.
Coverage/intensity of thunder should decrease by late evening
though as instability is forecast to wane.

Will continue to mention chance pops for scattered showers with
isolated thunder for Wednesday, siding with the slower ECMWF/NAM
guidance compared to faster GFS. The upper level trough may become
a closed low, which would slow its progress. The more progressive
GFS continues to show and open wave. Max temps Wednesday should be
cooler than recent days, but close to normal for late June.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The period is expected to start out with fair weather and
seasonably warm temperatures. At the surface high pressure is
expected to be over the region. While aloft, the region is
expected to be between short wave trough.

A cold front will be on the approaches from the northwest as we
close out the work week and head into the long holiday weekend.
Convection is expected as the front approaches on Friday and
crosses the region Friday night.

Guidance indicates an upper level low should develop over the
Great Lakes region with it becoming stacked. This stacked low then
is modeled to move gradually eastward across eastern Canada over
the holiday weekend as short waves rotating about it maintaining
an upper level trough over the region. At this time, it appears
the weather across the local area should be fair for the holiday
weekend as the upper low is modeled to remain far enough to our
north while the cold front that moves through is forecast to stall
far enough to our south. A wave of low pressure is expected to
move eastward along this boundary. Subtle changes in the expected
locations of these features will result in changes to a fair
weather forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure along the Atlantic seaboard will weaken and slide
offshore today. In the meantime, a cold front will approach from
the west. Heights will fall across the region however upper level
support will remain well to the west. Expecting some convection to
move into/develop across the local area today particularly during
the afternoon and evening.

Expecting mainly VFR conditions to prevail through much of the
evening. Exception would be the possibility of some mvfr-ifr fog
early this morning at KPSF and KGFL. MVFR conditions are expected
to develop mainly due to ceilings overnight.

Southerly wind will continue at KALB overnight increasing after
sunrise to around 12 knots. Winds will become gusty with gusts
into the 20s. At KGFL, KPOU and KPSF light and variable to calm
winds for the overnight with a south-southwest flow developing
after sunrise. Southerly winds increasing to around 10 knots with
some gusts into the teens. The winds will decrease in the evening.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A series of cold fronts will move eastward across the region late
today through Tuesday night, bringing rounds of showers and
thunderstorms. High pressure will then build in from the Midwest
by Wednesday night, with dry weather returning.

Minimum relative humidity values this afternoon are expected to
be around 35 to 50 percent. RH values will then increase to
between 80 and 100 percent tonight. Minimum RH values on Tuesday
will be around 50 to 60 percent.

Winds today will be southerly around 10 to 15 mph with gusts
around 20 mph. Southerly winds will decrease to 5 to 10 mph
tonight. Winds on Tuesday will be south-southwest at 5 to 15 mph.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydro problems are expected over the next 5 days.
There is a chance of showers and a few thunderstorms today, as a
weakening frontal boundary approaches. There will be a better
likelihood of showers and thunderstorms across the region on
Tuesday, ahead of and along a cold front. Two day rainfall totals
could reach one half to one inch, with some isolated higher
amounts. Ponding of water will occur within any persistent
thunderstorms. A few lingering showers are possible Wednesday with
light qpf amounts.

Dry weather will return by Thursday, with high pressure moving
back in across the region.

The latest drought monitor now has most of our region labeled
`Abnormally Dry` (D0). In fact, over the past 30 days, most of our
region is approximately 1-3 inches below normal in terms of
rainfall.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...NAS/JPV




000
FXUS61 KOKX 270813 CCA
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service New York NY
413 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weakening cold front over the Lower Great Lakes this morning
dissipates to the west of the area later today. Another cold
front approaches from the west on Tuesday and moves across the
area Tuesday night into early Wednesday. The front moves farther
offshore Wednesday night. Weak high pressure returns Thursday
through Friday. Another cold front approaches late Friday moving
across Saturday and moving southeast of the region by next Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
High pressure over the region this morning gives way to a
dissipating cold front approaching from the west. The later of
which may produce a few showers late this afternoon to the north
and west of NYC. Chances are low though with warm heights aloft
resulting in weak instability. For the most part, expect mostly
sunny skies into early this afternoon with increasing mid and
high level clouds to follow from upstream convection.

Highs will range from the mid 70s at coast to near 85 across the
interior. This looks to be a couple of degrees shy of normal. It
will also begin to become more humid as dew points rise through
the lower 60s this afternoon with south winds as highs as 15 to
20 mph at the coast.

There is a borderline low to moderate risk for the development of
rip currents at Atlantic ocean beaches today. If incoming swell
energy falls to around 1 ft as depicted by guidance, rip
development risk would be low, but there is some uncertainty on
how quickly that will occur. With that said, 15-20 kt afternoon
coastal jet development should have rip risk increasing to
moderate across NYC and Western LI beaches in the late
afternoon/evening with increased wind waves.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Mid level short wave trough passes through tonight with a few
showers possible. Next feature of interest will be a cold front
dropping SE across the Great Lakes tonight, approaching the NW
zones late tomorrow afternoon. Gradual height falls aloft and
increasing low-level moisture will allow for moderate instability
tomorrow afternoon, mainly across the interior. An onshore flow
near the coast will help to stabilize the airmass. The best chance
for isolated strong convection will be across the interior later
in the afternoon with CAPES over 1000 J/KG. Wind shear remains
weak, so not expecting any organization.

Conditions will be warm and muggy with dew points rising into the
upper 60s with with similar lows tonight. Highs on Tuesday may be
a degree or two cooler due to more cloud cover and continued
onshore flow. Coastal sections may have to contend with stratus
late tonight into Tuesday as the warm, moist air overruns the
cooler nearshore waters.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Upper level trough makes slow progress east across New England
Tuesday night through Wednesday. Associated PVA noted in most model
solutions traversing across the area through early Wednesday before
moving east.

This energy departs to the northeast as closed upper low moves
across Ontario Province late in the week, with a general trough
extending across the Great Lakes region toward the east. The closed
low moves east across Quebec Province, with lowering heights and
weak PVA moving across the northeast United States next weekend.

At the surface, a slow moving cold front approaches Tuesday evening,
with a wave of low pressure along the front to the west. The front
makes slow progress across the area Tuesday night, with another
frontal boundary lagging behind Wednesday before moving through
late. High pressure builds Thursday and Friday with another cold
front moving toward or through the area Saturday. Not too confident
in how far front moves for the latter portion of the weekend.

As for sensible weather, scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms are expected Tuesday night due to leftover moderate
instability, convergence along the front, upper level jet and PVA
aiding development. This chance continues overnight into Wednesday
due to continuation of upper support and cold front in the vicinity.
Would expect possible shower or thunderstorm development at any time
Tuesday night and Wednesday, mainly scattered in nature.

Dry weather expected Thursday and Friday with unsettled weather
returning next weekend.

Temperatures will average near normal, lower to middle 80s during
the day and 60s at night for the most part. Followed model blend.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure over the western Atlantic continues to drift into the
open Atlantic waters as a cold front approaches from the west.

VFR forecast through 06Z Tuesday. Only exception will be for some
potential fog at KGON from around 10-12Z this morning. In addition,
some stratus is possible along the coast, with FEW005-007 possible
during the early morning hours.

FEW-SCT clouds at 1500-2500 feet will spread through the terminals
ahead of that approaching cold front today, and another area of FEW-
SCT clouds at 5000 feet will develop this afternoon.

MVFR conditions will hold off until after 06Z, so the 30 hour TAFs
of KJFK/KEWR/KSWF will be impacted by precip late in the TAF period.

SW winds 5-10 KT will become S 10-15 KT later this morning. Sea
breezes will develop this afternoon, turning winds S. Coastal jet
will develop at KJFK, and winds will increase to 15-20 KT with 20-25
KT gusts there. For most other terminals, S winds will range from 10-
15 KT with gusts up to 20 KT.

S winds become SW after 00Z Tuesday, and diminish to 5-10 KT.

...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http://www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: Sea breeze likely after 15Z, and then winds
increase to 15-20 KT with gusts up to 25 KT after 18Z. Timing of
wind speed increases could be off by +/- 1-2 hours. Moderate
confidence in forecast.

KLGA TAF Comments: Sea breeze likely after 19Z. Timing could be off
by +/- 1-2 hours. Moderate confidence in forecast.

KEWR TAF Comments: S winds increase to 10-15 KT with gusts up to 20
KT after 17Z, but timing could be off by an hour or so. Moderate
confidence in forecast.

The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is GREEN...which implies
slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud.

KTEB TAF Comments: Moderate confidence in forecast. No unscheduled
AMDs expected.

KHPN TAF Comments: Moderate confidence in forecast. No unscheduled
AMDs expected.

KISP TAF Comments: Moderate confidence in forecast. Sea breeze
likely after 15Z, with speeds increasing to around 15 KT with gusts
up to 20 KT after 18Z. Timing could be off by an hour or so.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.Tonight into Tuesday morning...S winds G20KT along the coast in
the early evening. MVFR or lower conditions possible, with showers
mainly from NYC metro north/west, and low clouds/patchy fog along
the coast especially KGON/KISP.

.Tuesday afternoon and night...MVFR or IFR conditions likely in
showers and tstms. Stratus and fog possible at night, with IFR or
lower conditions likely at coastal terminals.

.Wednesday morning...IFR or lower conditions still possible via
morning fog/low clouds and any stray showers.

.Wednesday afternoon through Thursday...VFR.

.Friday...MVFR or lower conditions with showers/tstms possible in
the late afternoon from NYC metro north/west, and throughout at
night.

&&

.MARINE...
As high pressure drifts east today, southerly winds will increase
this afternoon with occasional gusts to near small craft levels,
mainly west of Fire Island Inlet to near the mouth of New York
Harbor. Similar conditions are forecast on Tuesday. Otherwise,
winds and seas will remain below small craft levels on all the
waters.

A slow moving cold front passes across the waters Tuesday
night through Wednesday as high pressure builds for the late
week period. Overall, the pressure gradient remains rather weak
during this time period. As such, expect seas and winds to
remain below small craft advisory thresholds.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Widespread significant rainfall is not anticipated through
the period. However, scattered showers and thunderstorms may
produce locally heavy downpours Tuesday night through Wednesday.
This could result in minor nuisance flooding.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DW/PW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...DW/PW
HYDROLOGY...DW/PW




000
FXUS61 KOKX 270813 CCA
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service New York NY
413 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weakening cold front over the Lower Great Lakes this morning
dissipates to the west of the area later today. Another cold
front approaches from the west on Tuesday and moves across the
area Tuesday night into early Wednesday. The front moves farther
offshore Wednesday night. Weak high pressure returns Thursday
through Friday. Another cold front approaches late Friday moving
across Saturday and moving southeast of the region by next Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
High pressure over the region this morning gives way to a
dissipating cold front approaching from the west. The later of
which may produce a few showers late this afternoon to the north
and west of NYC. Chances are low though with warm heights aloft
resulting in weak instability. For the most part, expect mostly
sunny skies into early this afternoon with increasing mid and
high level clouds to follow from upstream convection.

Highs will range from the mid 70s at coast to near 85 across the
interior. This looks to be a couple of degrees shy of normal. It
will also begin to become more humid as dew points rise through
the lower 60s this afternoon with south winds as highs as 15 to
20 mph at the coast.

There is a borderline low to moderate risk for the development of
rip currents at Atlantic ocean beaches today. If incoming swell
energy falls to around 1 ft as depicted by guidance, rip
development risk would be low, but there is some uncertainty on
how quickly that will occur. With that said, 15-20 kt afternoon
coastal jet development should have rip risk increasing to
moderate across NYC and Western LI beaches in the late
afternoon/evening with increased wind waves.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Mid level short wave trough passes through tonight with a few
showers possible. Next feature of interest will be a cold front
dropping SE across the Great Lakes tonight, approaching the NW
zones late tomorrow afternoon. Gradual height falls aloft and
increasing low-level moisture will allow for moderate instability
tomorrow afternoon, mainly across the interior. An onshore flow
near the coast will help to stabilize the airmass. The best chance
for isolated strong convection will be across the interior later
in the afternoon with CAPES over 1000 J/KG. Wind shear remains
weak, so not expecting any organization.

Conditions will be warm and muggy with dew points rising into the
upper 60s with with similar lows tonight. Highs on Tuesday may be
a degree or two cooler due to more cloud cover and continued
onshore flow. Coastal sections may have to contend with stratus
late tonight into Tuesday as the warm, moist air overruns the
cooler nearshore waters.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Upper level trough makes slow progress east across New England
Tuesday night through Wednesday. Associated PVA noted in most model
solutions traversing across the area through early Wednesday before
moving east.

This energy departs to the northeast as closed upper low moves
across Ontario Province late in the week, with a general trough
extending across the Great Lakes region toward the east. The closed
low moves east across Quebec Province, with lowering heights and
weak PVA moving across the northeast United States next weekend.

At the surface, a slow moving cold front approaches Tuesday evening,
with a wave of low pressure along the front to the west. The front
makes slow progress across the area Tuesday night, with another
frontal boundary lagging behind Wednesday before moving through
late. High pressure builds Thursday and Friday with another cold
front moving toward or through the area Saturday. Not too confident
in how far front moves for the latter portion of the weekend.

As for sensible weather, scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms are expected Tuesday night due to leftover moderate
instability, convergence along the front, upper level jet and PVA
aiding development. This chance continues overnight into Wednesday
due to continuation of upper support and cold front in the vicinity.
Would expect possible shower or thunderstorm development at any time
Tuesday night and Wednesday, mainly scattered in nature.

Dry weather expected Thursday and Friday with unsettled weather
returning next weekend.

Temperatures will average near normal, lower to middle 80s during
the day and 60s at night for the most part. Followed model blend.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure over the western Atlantic continues to drift into the
open Atlantic waters as a cold front approaches from the west.

VFR forecast through 06Z Tuesday. Only exception will be for some
potential fog at KGON from around 10-12Z this morning. In addition,
some stratus is possible along the coast, with FEW005-007 possible
during the early morning hours.

FEW-SCT clouds at 1500-2500 feet will spread through the terminals
ahead of that approaching cold front today, and another area of FEW-
SCT clouds at 5000 feet will develop this afternoon.

MVFR conditions will hold off until after 06Z, so the 30 hour TAFs
of KJFK/KEWR/KSWF will be impacted by precip late in the TAF period.

SW winds 5-10 KT will become S 10-15 KT later this morning. Sea
breezes will develop this afternoon, turning winds S. Coastal jet
will develop at KJFK, and winds will increase to 15-20 KT with 20-25
KT gusts there. For most other terminals, S winds will range from 10-
15 KT with gusts up to 20 KT.

S winds become SW after 00Z Tuesday, and diminish to 5-10 KT.

...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http://www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: Sea breeze likely after 15Z, and then winds
increase to 15-20 KT with gusts up to 25 KT after 18Z. Timing of
wind speed increases could be off by +/- 1-2 hours. Moderate
confidence in forecast.

KLGA TAF Comments: Sea breeze likely after 19Z. Timing could be off
by +/- 1-2 hours. Moderate confidence in forecast.

KEWR TAF Comments: S winds increase to 10-15 KT with gusts up to 20
KT after 17Z, but timing could be off by an hour or so. Moderate
confidence in forecast.

The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is GREEN...which implies
slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud.

KTEB TAF Comments: Moderate confidence in forecast. No unscheduled
AMDs expected.

KHPN TAF Comments: Moderate confidence in forecast. No unscheduled
AMDs expected.

KISP TAF Comments: Moderate confidence in forecast. Sea breeze
likely after 15Z, with speeds increasing to around 15 KT with gusts
up to 20 KT after 18Z. Timing could be off by an hour or so.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.Tonight into Tuesday morning...S winds G20KT along the coast in
the early evening. MVFR or lower conditions possible, with showers
mainly from NYC metro north/west, and low clouds/patchy fog along
the coast especially KGON/KISP.

.Tuesday afternoon and night...MVFR or IFR conditions likely in
showers and tstms. Stratus and fog possible at night, with IFR or
lower conditions likely at coastal terminals.

.Wednesday morning...IFR or lower conditions still possible via
morning fog/low clouds and any stray showers.

.Wednesday afternoon through Thursday...VFR.

.Friday...MVFR or lower conditions with showers/tstms possible in
the late afternoon from NYC metro north/west, and throughout at
night.

&&

.MARINE...
As high pressure drifts east today, southerly winds will increase
this afternoon with occasional gusts to near small craft levels,
mainly west of Fire Island Inlet to near the mouth of New York
Harbor. Similar conditions are forecast on Tuesday. Otherwise,
winds and seas will remain below small craft levels on all the
waters.

A slow moving cold front passes across the waters Tuesday
night through Wednesday as high pressure builds for the late
week period. Overall, the pressure gradient remains rather weak
during this time period. As such, expect seas and winds to
remain below small craft advisory thresholds.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Widespread significant rainfall is not anticipated through
the period. However, scattered showers and thunderstorms may
produce locally heavy downpours Tuesday night through Wednesday.
This could result in minor nuisance flooding.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DW/PW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...DW/PW
HYDROLOGY...DW/PW




000
FXUS61 KOKX 270811
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
411 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weakening cold front over the Lower Great Lakes this morning
dissipates to the west of the area later today. Another cold
front approaches from the west on Tuesday and moves across the
area Tuesday night into early Wednesday. The front moves farther
offshore Wednesday night. Weak high pressure returns Thursday
through Friday. Another cold front approaches late Friday moving
across Saturday and moving southeast of the region by next Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
High pressure over the region this morning gives way to a
dissipating cold front approaching from the west. The later of
which may produce a few showers late this afternoon to the north
and west of NYC. Chances are low though with warm heights aloft
resulting in weak instability. For the most part, expect mostly
sunny skies into early this afternoon with increasing mid and
high level clouds to follow from upstream convection.

Highs will range from the mid 70s at coast to near 85 across the
interior. This looks to be a couple of degrees shy of normal. It
will also begin to become more humid as dew points rise through
the lower 60s this afternoon with south winds as highs as 15 to
20 mph at the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Mid level short wave trough passes through tonight with a few
showers possible. Next feature of interest will be a cold front
dropping SE across the Great Lakes tonight, approaching the NW
zones late tomorrow afternoon. Gradual height falls aloft and
increasing low-level moisture will allow for moderate instability
tomorrow afternoon, mainly across the interior. An onshore flow
near the coast will help to stabilize the airmass. The best chance
for isolated strong convection will be across the interior later
in the afternoon with CAPES over 1000 J/KG. Wind shear remains
weak, so not expecting any organization.

Conditions will be warm and muggy with dew points rising into the
upper 60s with with similar lows tonight. Highs on Tuesday may be
a degree or two cooler due to more cloud cover and continued
onshore flow. Coastal sections may have to contend with stratus
late tonight into Tuesday as the warm, moist air overruns the
cooler nearshore waters.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Upper level trough makes slow progress east across New England
Tuesday night through Wednesday. Associated PVA noted in most model
solutions traversing across the area through early Wednesday before
moving east.

This energy departs to the northeast as closed upper low moves
across Ontario Province late in the week, with a general trough
extending across the Great Lakes region toward the east. The closed
low moves east across Quebec Province, with lowering heights and
weak PVA moving across the northeast United States next weekend.

At the surface, a slow moving cold front approaches Tuesday evening,
with a wave of low pressure along the front to the west. The front
makes slow progress across the area Tuesday night, with another
frontal boundary lagging behind Wednesday before moving through
late. High pressure builds Thursday and Friday with another cold
front moving toward or through the area Saturday. Not too confident
in how far front moves for the latter portion of the weekend.

As for sensible weather, scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms are expected Tuesday night due to leftover moderate
instability, convergence along the front, upper level jet and PVA
aiding development. This chance continues overnight into Wednesday
due to continuation of upper support and cold front in the vicinity.
Would expect possible shower or thunderstorm development at any time
Tuesday night and Wednesday, mainly scattered in nature.

Dry weather expected Thursday and Friday with unsettled weather
returning next weekend.

Temperatures will average near normal, lower to middle 80s during
the day and 60s at night for the most part. Followed model blend.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure over the western Atlantic continues to drift into the
open Atlantic waters as a cold front approaches from the west.

VFR forecast through 06Z Tuesday. Only exception will be for some
potential fog at KGON from around 10-12Z this morning. In addition,
some stratus is possible along the coast, with FEW005-007 possible
during the early morning hours.

FEW-SCT clouds at 1500-2500 feet will spread through the terminals
ahead of that approaching cold front today, and another area of FEW-
SCT clouds at 5000 feet will develop this afternoon.

MVFR conditions will hold off until after 06Z, so the 30 hour TAFs
of KJFK/KEWR/KSWF will be impacted by precip late in the TAF period.

SW winds 5-10 KT will become S 10-15 KT later this morning. Sea
breezes will develop this afternoon, turning winds S. Coastal jet
will develop at KJFK, and winds will increase to 15-20 KT with 20-25
KT gusts there. For most other terminals, S winds will range from 10-
15 KT with gusts up to 20 KT.

S winds become SW after 00Z Tuesday, and diminish to 5-10 KT.

...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http://www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: Sea breeze likely after 15Z, and then winds
increase to 15-20 KT with gusts up to 25 KT after 18Z. Timing of
wind speed increases could be off by +/- 1-2 hours. Moderate
confidence in forecast.

KLGA TAF Comments: Sea breeze likely after 19Z. Timing could be off
by +/- 1-2 hours. Moderate confidence in forecast.

KEWR TAF Comments: S winds increase to 10-15 KT with gusts up to 20
KT after 17Z, but timing could be off by an hour or so. Moderate
confidence in forecast.

The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is GREEN...which implies
slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud.

KTEB TAF Comments: Moderate confidence in forecast. No unscheduled
AMDs expected.

KHPN TAF Comments: Moderate confidence in forecast. No unscheduled
AMDs expected.

KISP TAF Comments: Moderate confidence in forecast. Sea breeze
likely after 15Z, with speeds increasing to around 15 KT with gusts
up to 20 KT after 18Z. Timing could be off by an hour or so.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.Tonight into Tuesday morning...S winds G20KT along the coast in
the early evening. MVFR or lower conditions possible, with showers
mainly from NYC metro north/west, and low clouds/patchy fog along
the coast especially KGON/KISP.

.Tuesday afternoon and night...MVFR or IFR conditions likely in
showers and tstms. Stratus and fog possible at night, with IFR or
lower conditions likely at coastal terminals.

.Wednesday morning...IFR or lower conditions still possible via
morning fog/low clouds and any stray showers.

.Wednesday afternoon through Thursday...VFR.

.Friday...MVFR or lower conditions with showers/tstms possible in
the late afternoon from NYC metro north/west, and throughout at
night.

&&

.MARINE...
As high pressure drifts east today, southerly winds will increase
this afternoon with occasional gusts to near small craft levels,
mainly west of Fire Island Inlet to near the mouth of New York
Harbor. Similar conditions are forecast on Tuesday. Otherwise,
winds and seas will remain below small craft levels on all the
waters.

A slow moving cold front passes across the waters Tuesday
night through Wednesday as high pressure builds for the late
week period. Overall, the pressure gradient remains rather weak
during this time period. As such, expect seas and winds to
remain below small craft advisory thresholds.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Widespread significant rainfall is not anticipated through
the period. However, scattered showers and thunderstorms may
produce locally heavy downpours Tuesday night through Wednesday.
This could result in minor nuisance flooding.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DW/PW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...DW/PW
HYDROLOGY...DW/PW




000
FXUS61 KOKX 270811
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
411 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weakening cold front over the Lower Great Lakes this morning
dissipates to the west of the area later today. Another cold
front approaches from the west on Tuesday and moves across the
area Tuesday night into early Wednesday. The front moves farther
offshore Wednesday night. Weak high pressure returns Thursday
through Friday. Another cold front approaches late Friday moving
across Saturday and moving southeast of the region by next Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
High pressure over the region this morning gives way to a
dissipating cold front approaching from the west. The later of
which may produce a few showers late this afternoon to the north
and west of NYC. Chances are low though with warm heights aloft
resulting in weak instability. For the most part, expect mostly
sunny skies into early this afternoon with increasing mid and
high level clouds to follow from upstream convection.

Highs will range from the mid 70s at coast to near 85 across the
interior. This looks to be a couple of degrees shy of normal. It
will also begin to become more humid as dew points rise through
the lower 60s this afternoon with south winds as highs as 15 to
20 mph at the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Mid level short wave trough passes through tonight with a few
showers possible. Next feature of interest will be a cold front
dropping SE across the Great Lakes tonight, approaching the NW
zones late tomorrow afternoon. Gradual height falls aloft and
increasing low-level moisture will allow for moderate instability
tomorrow afternoon, mainly across the interior. An onshore flow
near the coast will help to stabilize the airmass. The best chance
for isolated strong convection will be across the interior later
in the afternoon with CAPES over 1000 J/KG. Wind shear remains
weak, so not expecting any organization.

Conditions will be warm and muggy with dew points rising into the
upper 60s with with similar lows tonight. Highs on Tuesday may be
a degree or two cooler due to more cloud cover and continued
onshore flow. Coastal sections may have to contend with stratus
late tonight into Tuesday as the warm, moist air overruns the
cooler nearshore waters.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Upper level trough makes slow progress east across New England
Tuesday night through Wednesday. Associated PVA noted in most model
solutions traversing across the area through early Wednesday before
moving east.

This energy departs to the northeast as closed upper low moves
across Ontario Province late in the week, with a general trough
extending across the Great Lakes region toward the east. The closed
low moves east across Quebec Province, with lowering heights and
weak PVA moving across the northeast United States next weekend.

At the surface, a slow moving cold front approaches Tuesday evening,
with a wave of low pressure along the front to the west. The front
makes slow progress across the area Tuesday night, with another
frontal boundary lagging behind Wednesday before moving through
late. High pressure builds Thursday and Friday with another cold
front moving toward or through the area Saturday. Not too confident
in how far front moves for the latter portion of the weekend.

As for sensible weather, scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms are expected Tuesday night due to leftover moderate
instability, convergence along the front, upper level jet and PVA
aiding development. This chance continues overnight into Wednesday
due to continuation of upper support and cold front in the vicinity.
Would expect possible shower or thunderstorm development at any time
Tuesday night and Wednesday, mainly scattered in nature.

Dry weather expected Thursday and Friday with unsettled weather
returning next weekend.

Temperatures will average near normal, lower to middle 80s during
the day and 60s at night for the most part. Followed model blend.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure over the western Atlantic continues to drift into the
open Atlantic waters as a cold front approaches from the west.

VFR forecast through 06Z Tuesday. Only exception will be for some
potential fog at KGON from around 10-12Z this morning. In addition,
some stratus is possible along the coast, with FEW005-007 possible
during the early morning hours.

FEW-SCT clouds at 1500-2500 feet will spread through the terminals
ahead of that approaching cold front today, and another area of FEW-
SCT clouds at 5000 feet will develop this afternoon.

MVFR conditions will hold off until after 06Z, so the 30 hour TAFs
of KJFK/KEWR/KSWF will be impacted by precip late in the TAF period.

SW winds 5-10 KT will become S 10-15 KT later this morning. Sea
breezes will develop this afternoon, turning winds S. Coastal jet
will develop at KJFK, and winds will increase to 15-20 KT with 20-25
KT gusts there. For most other terminals, S winds will range from 10-
15 KT with gusts up to 20 KT.

S winds become SW after 00Z Tuesday, and diminish to 5-10 KT.

...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http://www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: Sea breeze likely after 15Z, and then winds
increase to 15-20 KT with gusts up to 25 KT after 18Z. Timing of
wind speed increases could be off by +/- 1-2 hours. Moderate
confidence in forecast.

KLGA TAF Comments: Sea breeze likely after 19Z. Timing could be off
by +/- 1-2 hours. Moderate confidence in forecast.

KEWR TAF Comments: S winds increase to 10-15 KT with gusts up to 20
KT after 17Z, but timing could be off by an hour or so. Moderate
confidence in forecast.

The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is GREEN...which implies
slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud.

KTEB TAF Comments: Moderate confidence in forecast. No unscheduled
AMDs expected.

KHPN TAF Comments: Moderate confidence in forecast. No unscheduled
AMDs expected.

KISP TAF Comments: Moderate confidence in forecast. Sea breeze
likely after 15Z, with speeds increasing to around 15 KT with gusts
up to 20 KT after 18Z. Timing could be off by an hour or so.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.Tonight into Tuesday morning...S winds G20KT along the coast in
the early evening. MVFR or lower conditions possible, with showers
mainly from NYC metro north/west, and low clouds/patchy fog along
the coast especially KGON/KISP.

.Tuesday afternoon and night...MVFR or IFR conditions likely in
showers and tstms. Stratus and fog possible at night, with IFR or
lower conditions likely at coastal terminals.

.Wednesday morning...IFR or lower conditions still possible via
morning fog/low clouds and any stray showers.

.Wednesday afternoon through Thursday...VFR.

.Friday...MVFR or lower conditions with showers/tstms possible in
the late afternoon from NYC metro north/west, and throughout at
night.

&&

.MARINE...
As high pressure drifts east today, southerly winds will increase
this afternoon with occasional gusts to near small craft levels,
mainly west of Fire Island Inlet to near the mouth of New York
Harbor. Similar conditions are forecast on Tuesday. Otherwise,
winds and seas will remain below small craft levels on all the
waters.

A slow moving cold front passes across the waters Tuesday
night through Wednesday as high pressure builds for the late
week period. Overall, the pressure gradient remains rather weak
during this time period. As such, expect seas and winds to
remain below small craft advisory thresholds.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Widespread significant rainfall is not anticipated through
the period. However, scattered showers and thunderstorms may
produce locally heavy downpours Tuesday night through Wednesday.
This could result in minor nuisance flooding.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DW/PW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...DW/PW
HYDROLOGY...DW/PW




000
FXUS61 KBOX 270756
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
356 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains in control through Monday. A cool front
will slowly approach the region, bringing showers and thunderstorms
Tuesday and Wednesday. High pressure then brings dry seasonable
weather for the late week. Another cold front may bring more
showers and thunderstorms Friday night and Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1035 PM Update...

Other than patchy high thin clouds across portions of southern New
England this evening, skies were mainly clear. Noting some more
mid and high clouds working SE out of N NY and VT in the NW flow
aloft, which will tend to thin out as they move into the region
overnight.

Dewpts have been slowly rising across most of the region, mainly
in the mid 50s to around 60, expect a bit lower across interior SE
Mass though they are rising there as well. Do not see fog
developing yet, but will be monitoring as temp/dewpt spreads
tending to lower mainly along the S coast. Temps at 02Z were in
the lower-mid 60s across most of E Mass into RI, ranging to the
lower 70s in the CT valley into N central Mass.

Overnight forecast pretty much on track. Have updated near term
information to bring current. Will continue to monitor as dewpts
continue to slowly rise.

Previous discussion...

Stout dry inversion just above the surface beneath which S winds
continue to advect moisture N. Surface dewpoints have risen
slightly and are expected to continue to do so overnight. Coupled
with mostly clear conditions, expect another round of radiational
cooling. Temperatures overnight won`t drop as low as they did
during the early morning hours Sunday, but still low enough such
that there is the threat of patchy ground fog or stratus. Focus
across E CT into W RI. Perhaps even Southeast MA where radiational
cooling is most favorable. Lows falling down into the mid 50s.
Elsewhere upper 50s with urban centers in the low 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Monday...

Pre-frontal trough will push through the Great Lakes region
resulting in southwest flow across southern New England. Offshore
mid-level low will stall the trough keeping Monday mostly dry.
Clouds will begin to increase from west to east during the afternoon
hours. Due to increasing pressure gradient, southwest flow will
increase aloft. Appears mixing will reach up to 900 mb which would
allow for gusts near 20-25 mph. Otherwise temperatures will warm
into low to mid 80s across the area, cooler conditions along the
South Coast due to onshore flow. Can`t rule out upper 80s to near
90s across the Merrimack Valley due to good mixing in southwest
flow.

Monday Night...

The pre-frontal trough will slowly approach from the west but
weaken on Monday night. Very weak forcing and limited upper level
dynamics as this system moves through. Still plenty of moisture to
work with so expect isolated to scattered showers overnight.
Appears that there will be some elevated instability, so cannot
rule out a rumble of thunder.

Aside from the convection potential, higher dewpoints will spill
into the region overnight. This will result in muggier conditions,
and the potential for fog development. Overnight temps will only
drop into the low to mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

Big Picture...

Longwave scale continues to show a ridge-west/trough-east pattern
over North America. This may shift east a little during the holday
weekend.  One shortwave rippling through this flow moves across New
England later Wednesday.  A second moves down from Canada and sweeps
across New England next weekend.

Model mass fields are similar with the broad pattern through Friday.
There are differences in positioning of the cold front associated
with the first shortwave. The ECMWF is farthest west and the GGEM
farthest east. This means a consensus as to the broader forecast,
showers/tstms, but uncertainty regarding the details such as timing.
With the second shortwave, the GFS and ECMWF are similar while the
GGEM is slower and farther south. The mass field agreement and the
variations in details Tuesday night/Wednesday favor a blend of model
data.

Details...

Tuesday night through Wednesday...

Shortwave over the Eastern Great Lakes digs over New England while
the associated surface cold front moves through Eastern New York
Tuesday night and New England Wednesday. The upper flow through the
shortwave will be SSW to NNE across our area, almost parallel to the
cold front. Until the shortwave axis swings across our area and
turns the upper flow across the front, the cold front will move
very slowly.

Upper jet flowing through the shortwave will provide dynamic support
for lift. Model data shows precipitable water values pooling along
and just ahead of the front with max values 1.6 to 1.8 inches. Three
of four models show total-totals in the upper 40s Tuesday night
through Wednesday afternoon in the area leading the cold front.
Cross sections show the moisture will be through a deep column. All
of this points to showers and possible thunderstorms. We will stay
with likely pops Tuesday night and chance pops Wednesday.

Thursday through Saturday...

Weak high pressure builds over the region Thursday and lingers into
Friday. The second shortwave approaches with difluent flow aloft
Friday afternoon/evening and increasing precip water values toward
evening. Favorable instability remains to our west and northwest
during Friday but then moves across Southern New England Friday
night.

Timing on this shortwave and surface cold front will continue to
vary, but for now we will show chance pops for showers/tstms in
extreme western MA Friday afternoon and chance pops for most of the
area Friday night. Showers/thunder end from west to east Saturday
morning.

Temps aloft 13-15C should support max sfc temps in the low to mid
80s.

Sunday...

The Saturday cold front moves south of New England, but with long
range data suggesting it may stall to our south. In this scenario, a
low pressure wave would move along the front from the Ohio Valley
and pass south of us.  There is some potential for clouds and a
chance of showers for July 3rd, mostly along our South Coast with
diminishing liklihood to the north.  This will need to be monitored.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Tuesday/...

0230Z Update...

Overnight...High Confidence. Mainly VFR. Low chance for IFR-LIFR
conditions in patchy ground fog and/or low clouds across portions
of W CT/W RI into SE MA. Light S winds.

Monday...High Confidence. VFR. Any IFR-LIFR fog / cigs erode by
13Z. Expect S-SW winds gradually increasing, gusts up to 20-25 kt
during the afternoon.

Monday night...Moderate Confidence.
Mainly VFR. Conditions could deteriorate as SHRA and isolated
TSRA move into W New England. IFR-LIFR stratus and fog could
develop ahead of approaching showers over S/E portions of New
England.

KBOS TAF...High confidence. S winds increase Monday, gusting up
to around 25 kts during the afternoon hours

KBDL TAF...High confidence. VFR. Very low chance for MVFR-IFR
conditions in patchy fog 07Z-11Z tonight and again Monday night.
May reside just to the S/E.

Outlook /Tuesday night through Friday/...

Tuesday night-Wednesday... Moderate confidence

VFR with areas of MVFR in showers and thunderstorms Tuesday night
and Wednesday morning. Areas of IFR possible in fog and low clouds.
South winds gusting to 20 knots will shift from the West after the
cold front moves through Wednesday.

Thursday-Friday...Moderate confidence

VFR. North winds become variable Thursday, then from the south
Friday.  Showers/tstms will develop over New York State, and may
move into Southern New England Friday evening and night. These
showers and storms would have areas of MVFR cigs/vsbys.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Tuesday/...

1030 pm update...No changes to overnight forecast.

Overnight...High Confidence. Winds and seas below small craft
criteria.

Monday into Monday night...Moderate Confidence. High pressure
moving offshore as system approaches from the west. Near shore
winds will gust close to 25 kts during the afternoon tomorrow. SCA
may be needed but confidence is low. Increase LLJ across northern
waters will result in seas building to 5 feet. SCA will continue.

Outlook /Tuesday night through Friday/... Moderate confidence.

Tuesday night-Wednesday...Moderate confidence.

Showers and thunderstorms cross the waters with south wind gusts
near 20 knots at times. Winds shift from the west Wednesday as a
cold front crosses the waters.  Low vsbys possible ahead of the cold
front in showers and storms as well as in fog.  No headlines planned
at this time.

Thursday-Friday...Moderate confidence.

High pressure builds over the waters Thursday and moves off to the
east Friday.  A cold front approaches from the west Friday night.
Winds and seas should remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria.
Scattered showers/thunderstorms possible Friday night as the cold
front approaches.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 2 AM EDT
     Tuesday for ANZ250.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT




000
FXUS61 KALY 270600
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
200 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure along the Atlantic seaboard will slide offshore
tonight. A series of cold fronts move eastward across the region
late Monday through Tuesday, bringing showers and thunderstorms.
High pressure will then build in from the Midwest by midweek,
with dry seasonable weather returning.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 1253 AM EDT...Very warm temperatures across the region for
early morning, with 60s and 70s region-wide. Temps will not cool
too much more in some areas where a persistent southerly breeze
has developed. High and mid level clouds approaching with a
shearing 500 hpa short wave. These clouds will push south across
the region overnight. Farther west over Ontario showers have
developed associated with a pre-frontal trough. These at most will
send mid lvl convective debris our way. An isolated shower could
approach the western Adirondacks toward daybreak.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The band of clouds in the Great Lakes will track into the region
as a pre frontal trough develops over our region. Low level
convergence will be weak and there is not much moisture...plus
upper dynamics are still well west of our region. So...any showers
and thunderstorms that develop in western and central NY should
tend to weaken as they move east. Still...with a mix of clouds and
sun and some isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms...
just a few degrees cooler tomorrow...still well into the 80s...if
more sun...southwest boundary layer flow could help us reach
toward 90 again...we will see.

Any isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms should weaken
and decrease in coverage through the night...with periods of mid
and high clouds over the region through the night. Then the upper
energy and cold front will track into our region Tuesday...with
more cloud cover and better coverage of showers and thunderstorms.
Cooler temperatures will limit instability and boundary layer
flow is still relatively weak...but there is a decent boundary
layer temperature gradient that tracks through along with a low
level wind shift. So...showers likely and scattered thunderstorms
Tuesday afternoon and evening...with maybe a few strong
thunderstorms but chances for severe look quite limited. Highs
Tuesday in the mid 70s to around 80.

The front and the showers and storms move out Tuesday night...and
there could be some lingering isolated showers in western New
England into Wednesday morning. Improving conditions through the
day Wednesday with highs in the mid 70s to around 80...cooler in
higher terrain.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
This will be a period that starts dry and ends dry...with unsettled
weather in between.  Things begin with decreasing clouds as high
pressure settles in from the midwest. Compressional heating will
provide very warm temperatures and very low humidities for the
balance of the work week.

A cold front approaching from the northwest will pose an increasing
risk of a hit and miss shower for Friday...but despite an increase
in mid and high clouds...this is a pessimistic scenario as there is
really no mechanism for bringing in low-level moisture. Thus...
relative humidities will remain quite low and just some virga is
what will probably be common during the afternoon.  Still...
parameters for instability are expected to be quite high
initially and one shouldn`t be surprised to hear thunder coming
out of high cloud bases...with the possibility of no rain reaching
the ground.

As the front gets closer on Saturday...this will mark a more
reasonable risk for showers.  Still...moisture itself will be
limited with the cold front that will have moved through on
Tuesday remaining hung up off the northeast coast. The approaching
front will have weakened considerable by Saturday...and any
showers will likely no longer be accompanied by thunder as the
atmosphere stabilizes ahead of the cold front which is expected to
move through during the day.

High pressure returns for Sunday...with an increase in sunshine...
but temperatures not too much above normal.  Thursday and Friday
will be the warmest days...with highs from the mid 70s to upper 80s.
Highs both Saturday and Sunday will range from around 70 degrees to
the mid 80s.  Overnight lows will start out Wednesday night from the
mid 40s to upper 50s...and peak with lows from the mid 50s to mid
60s Friday night.  Except for Friday night...the lows will average
below normal.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure along the Atlantic seaboard will weaken and slide
offshore today. In the meantime, a cold front will approach from
the west. Heights will fall across the region however upper level
support will remain well to the west. Expecting some convection to
move into/develop across the local area today particularly during
the afternoon and evening.

Expecting mainly VFR conditions to prevail. However, mvfr-ifr fog
may impact KGFL and KPSF early this morning. Also, late in the TAF
period MVFR ceilings may occur especially at KPOU.

Southerly wind will continue at KALB overnight increasing after
sunrise to around 12 knots. Winds will become gusty with gusts
into the 20s. At KGFL, KPOU and KPSF light and variable to calm
winds for the overnight with a south-southwest flow developing
after sunrise. Southerly winds increasing to around 10 knots with
some gusts into the teens. The winds will decrease in the evening.

Outlook...

Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
High pressure along the Atlantic seaboard will slide offshore
tonight. A series of cold fronts move eastward across the region
late Monday through Tuesday, bringing showers and thunderstorms.
High pressure will then build in from the Midwest by midweek, with
dry seasonable weather returning.

RH values will increase to between 70 and 90 percent tonight.
Minimum RH values on Monday will be around 40 to 60 percent. Rain
will keep RH values up through Tuesday.

Winds will be southerly around 5 to 10 mph through tonight. Winds
on Monday will continue to be southerly and increase to around 10
to 15 mph...continuing through Tuesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydro problems are expected over the next 5 days. The next
chance of rainfall will arrive Monday into Tuesday when some
showers and thunderstorms are expected to move across the region
ahead and along of a cold front. Two day rainfall totals could be
up to a half inch of rain in many areas.

The latest drought monitor now has most of our region labeled
`Abnormally Dry` (D0). In fact, over the past 30 days, most of our
region is approximately 1-3 inches below normal in terms of
rainfall.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Snyder/NAS
NEAR TERM...Snyder/NAS/JPV
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS




000
FXUS61 KALY 270600
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
200 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure along the Atlantic seaboard will slide offshore
tonight. A series of cold fronts move eastward across the region
late Monday through Tuesday, bringing showers and thunderstorms.
High pressure will then build in from the Midwest by midweek,
with dry seasonable weather returning.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 1253 AM EDT...Very warm temperatures across the region for
early morning, with 60s and 70s region-wide. Temps will not cool
too much more in some areas where a persistent southerly breeze
has developed. High and mid level clouds approaching with a
shearing 500 hpa short wave. These clouds will push south across
the region overnight. Farther west over Ontario showers have
developed associated with a pre-frontal trough. These at most will
send mid lvl convective debris our way. An isolated shower could
approach the western Adirondacks toward daybreak.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The band of clouds in the Great Lakes will track into the region
as a pre frontal trough develops over our region. Low level
convergence will be weak and there is not much moisture...plus
upper dynamics are still well west of our region. So...any showers
and thunderstorms that develop in western and central NY should
tend to weaken as they move east. Still...with a mix of clouds and
sun and some isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms...
just a few degrees cooler tomorrow...still well into the 80s...if
more sun...southwest boundary layer flow could help us reach
toward 90 again...we will see.

Any isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms should weaken
and decrease in coverage through the night...with periods of mid
and high clouds over the region through the night. Then the upper
energy and cold front will track into our region Tuesday...with
more cloud cover and better coverage of showers and thunderstorms.
Cooler temperatures will limit instability and boundary layer
flow is still relatively weak...but there is a decent boundary
layer temperature gradient that tracks through along with a low
level wind shift. So...showers likely and scattered thunderstorms
Tuesday afternoon and evening...with maybe a few strong
thunderstorms but chances for severe look quite limited. Highs
Tuesday in the mid 70s to around 80.

The front and the showers and storms move out Tuesday night...and
there could be some lingering isolated showers in western New
England into Wednesday morning. Improving conditions through the
day Wednesday with highs in the mid 70s to around 80...cooler in
higher terrain.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
This will be a period that starts dry and ends dry...with unsettled
weather in between.  Things begin with decreasing clouds as high
pressure settles in from the midwest. Compressional heating will
provide very warm temperatures and very low humidities for the
balance of the work week.

A cold front approaching from the northwest will pose an increasing
risk of a hit and miss shower for Friday...but despite an increase
in mid and high clouds...this is a pessimistic scenario as there is
really no mechanism for bringing in low-level moisture. Thus...
relative humidities will remain quite low and just some virga is
what will probably be common during the afternoon.  Still...
parameters for instability are expected to be quite high
initially and one shouldn`t be surprised to hear thunder coming
out of high cloud bases...with the possibility of no rain reaching
the ground.

As the front gets closer on Saturday...this will mark a more
reasonable risk for showers.  Still...moisture itself will be
limited with the cold front that will have moved through on
Tuesday remaining hung up off the northeast coast. The approaching
front will have weakened considerable by Saturday...and any
showers will likely no longer be accompanied by thunder as the
atmosphere stabilizes ahead of the cold front which is expected to
move through during the day.

High pressure returns for Sunday...with an increase in sunshine...
but temperatures not too much above normal.  Thursday and Friday
will be the warmest days...with highs from the mid 70s to upper 80s.
Highs both Saturday and Sunday will range from around 70 degrees to
the mid 80s.  Overnight lows will start out Wednesday night from the
mid 40s to upper 50s...and peak with lows from the mid 50s to mid
60s Friday night.  Except for Friday night...the lows will average
below normal.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure along the Atlantic seaboard will weaken and slide
offshore today. In the meantime, a cold front will approach from
the west. Heights will fall across the region however upper level
support will remain well to the west. Expecting some convection to
move into/develop across the local area today particularly during
the afternoon and evening.

Expecting mainly VFR conditions to prevail. However, mvfr-ifr fog
may impact KGFL and KPSF early this morning. Also, late in the TAF
period MVFR ceilings may occur especially at KPOU.

Southerly wind will continue at KALB overnight increasing after
sunrise to around 12 knots. Winds will become gusty with gusts
into the 20s. At KGFL, KPOU and KPSF light and variable to calm
winds for the overnight with a south-southwest flow developing
after sunrise. Southerly winds increasing to around 10 knots with
some gusts into the teens. The winds will decrease in the evening.

Outlook...

Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
High pressure along the Atlantic seaboard will slide offshore
tonight. A series of cold fronts move eastward across the region
late Monday through Tuesday, bringing showers and thunderstorms.
High pressure will then build in from the Midwest by midweek, with
dry seasonable weather returning.

RH values will increase to between 70 and 90 percent tonight.
Minimum RH values on Monday will be around 40 to 60 percent. Rain
will keep RH values up through Tuesday.

Winds will be southerly around 5 to 10 mph through tonight. Winds
on Monday will continue to be southerly and increase to around 10
to 15 mph...continuing through Tuesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydro problems are expected over the next 5 days. The next
chance of rainfall will arrive Monday into Tuesday when some
showers and thunderstorms are expected to move across the region
ahead and along of a cold front. Two day rainfall totals could be
up to a half inch of rain in many areas.

The latest drought monitor now has most of our region labeled
`Abnormally Dry` (D0). In fact, over the past 30 days, most of our
region is approximately 1-3 inches below normal in terms of
rainfall.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Snyder/NAS
NEAR TERM...Snyder/NAS/JPV
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS




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