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000
FXUS61 KALY 301820
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
220 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL ADVANCE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT TO NEW YORK
LATE SUNDAY...AND STEADILY INTENSIFY MONDAY ALONG THE COAST. IT
WILL BRING A SOAKING RAIN TO START THE WEEK. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL ORGANIZE IN THE THE OTTAWA VALLEY
WEDNESDAY AND SHIFT TO THE COAST THURSDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER
THREAT OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IT WILL BE A WET AND VERY COOL START TO THE MONTH OF MAY.

A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING WITH THE RAIN CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION.

THE SURFACE RIDGE WHICH WAS OVER THE FA WILL CONTINUE TO RETREAT
TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH ON SUNDAY WITH OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION
OVERSPREADING THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS THE ATMOSPHERE
SATURATES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON SUNDAY GENERALLY LOOK TO BE BETWEEN
A QUARTER AND HALF AN INCH. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE CHILLY RUNNING
AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
OVER THIS PERIOD THE FLAT WSW 500 HPA FLOW ACROSS EASTERN USA GRADUALLY
TRANSITIONS INTO A CUT OFF LOW OVER N ONTARIO WITH A TROF TO ITS
SOUTH.  VARIOUS SHORT WVS MOVING IN THIS CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DRIVE
CYCLOGENISUS...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT...TIED TO EACH OF THESE
FEATURES. THROUGH TUES NT THE NAM/GFSGEM AND PVS ECMWF ARE FAIRLY
MUCH IN AGREEMENT.

SUN NT WILL BE THE LULL IN THE PCPN...AS MAJOR 500HPA SHORT WAVE
IS STILL OUT NR CHICAGO...SFC LOW IS IN MIDWEST AND WMFNTS ARE IN
ST LAWRENCE VLY...AND ALONG NJ CST. WITH LITTLE DYNAMICS FORCING
CLOUDS...SCT -SHRA AND MORE LIKELY DRIZZLE WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF
THE NIGHT.

BY LATE SUN NT...THIS SHORT WV AND ITS SFC LOW WILL PUSH INTO E
GRTLKS AND A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE RGN AND
CONTINUE MUCH OF MONDAY. THE SFC LOW WILL TAKE I90 TWRDS
BOSTON...SLIDING OFFSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON AS PCPN TAPERS OFF TO
-SHRA.

WHILE THE GUID SHOWS CONSIDERABLE DRYING IN MEAN LAYERS THE
GENERAL ABSENCE OF MUCH FLOW WILL RESULT IN CLOUDS SLOWLY THINING
TUESDAY. BUT MORE OR LESS A DRY DAY IN MOST AREAS EXCPT IN SE
PORTIONS OF FCA WHERE TRAILING CDFNT FROM DEPARTING SYSTEM WILL
STALL...AND NEXT SFC LOW WILL BEGIN TO ORGANIZE AS NEXT SHORT WV
ROUNDS THE BASE OF 500 HPA TROF...AND HEADS TWRD THE NE USA. ALL
AREAS MAY SEE SCT -SHRA AS THE 500 HPA SHORT WV CROSSES THE RGN
TUES EVNG. LATE TUES NT THE NEXT SHORT WV AND SFC LOW PAIR WILL
MOVE INTO THE GRTLKS AND PUSH -SHRA INTO AREAS N&W OF ALBANY BY
DAYBREAK.

AN UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH COOL WET CONDITIONS MONDAY AND TEMPS BLO
NORMAL THEN REBOUNDING TO NORMAL TEMPS AND MORE SHOWERY PCPN. IF
THE SUN MAKES AN APPEARANCE IT WILL BE TUES AFTN AND EARLY WED
MRNG E. WITH GENERAL GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MDLS THE SUPERBLEND
SHOULD COVER GRIDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS DRY...AND THEN BECOMES INCREASINGLY WET
AND UNSETTLED WITH A MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH EAST OF THE MS RIVER
VALLEY...AND A CUTOFF LOW IMPACTING THE REGION TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WEEK.

TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION AND THE SOUTHEAST...AS A SFC HIGH BUILDS IN OVER NY AND NEW
ENGLAND. THIS ANTICYCLONE WILL BRING A BRIEF WINDOW OF FAIR AND
TRANQUIL WEATHER BASED ON THE LATEST ECMWF/GFS/WPC GUIDANCE.  THE
CANADIAN GGEM IS AN OUTLIER SOLUTION WITH A WAVE MOVING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY PASSING CLOSE TO LONG ISLAND FOR MORE CLOUDS AND SOME
SHOWERS. FAIR AND DRY WX IS EXPECTED WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS...WITH
HIGHS IN THE U50S TO L60S OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U60S IN THE
VALLEY AREAS.

TUE NIGHT INTO WED...A DIGGING NRN STREAM H500 TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
S/SE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...ATTEMPTING TO PHASE WITH A SRN
STREAM UPPER LOW NEAR THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. SOME CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NRN STREAM TROUGH...AND A SFC COLD FRONT.
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY WITH THE WEAK WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.  LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO M40S WITH SOME U30S
OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND SRN GREENS.  THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
VARIES SOME ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE BROAD H500 UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
ERN CONUS WED...WHICH IS DELAYING THE ONSET OF SHOWERS.  THERE IS
ENOUGH SYNOPTIC FORCING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND THE NRN STREAM
H500 TROUGH FOR AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY.  HIGHS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TUE.

WED NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THE LONGWAVE TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY
TILTED WED NIGHT INTO THU FOR A COASTAL LOW TO FORM NEAR THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION.  THE ENSEMBLES AND MEDIUM RANGE DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE INDICATE DECENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF AND WRN
ATLANTIC FOR SCT SHOWERS TO BREAK OUT ESPECIALLY FROM THE MOHAWK
VALLEY SOUTH AND EAST WED NIGHT...AND THEN OVER THE ENTIRE REGION BY
THU.  POPS WERE HELD IN THE HIGH CHC RANGE...BUT MAY NEED TO BE
RAISED TO LIKELY IN THE NEAR FUTURE.  A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN IS
LIKELY THU-THU NIGHT WITH STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT...AND DIFFERENTIAL
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION YIELDING PERIODS OF RAIN.  THE
GFS/ECMWF/ENSEMBLES VARY A BIT IN THE EXACT LOCATION...BUT LATE THU
INTO THU NIGHT THE H500 LOW CUTS OFF OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...OR AS FAR NORTH AS THE PA/NY BORDER.  SCT SHOWERS LOOK TO
CONTINUE THU NIGHT INTO FRI.  THE CUTOFF LOOKS TO HANG AROUND INTO
THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. SHOWERY AND COOL WEATHER WILL
PERSIST...AS THIS PATTERN RESEMBLES MORE APRIL THAN MAY.  LOWS WILL
BE IN THE U30S TO M40S...WITH HIGHS IN THE M50S TO U60S OVER THE
FCST AREA TO CLOSE THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BACK IN FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AHEAD
OF A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE
MIDWEST.

CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY VFR THE NEXT 18 HOURS...THEN GRADUALLY
BECOME MVFR BTWN 13Z AND 15Z AS RAIN OVERSPREADS THE AREA. THE
CIGS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SCT-BKN IN THE 3.5-6 KFT AGL RANGE
WITH SCT-BKN CIRRUS. THE CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER A BIT
TOWARDS 22Z/SAT TO 01Z/SUN AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTH. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY RAIN REACHING A TAF SITE BEFORE
12Z/SUN WILL BE KPOU...AND A VCSH GROUP WAS USED STARTED AT
09Z/01. CIGS WILL GENERALLY LOWER TO 3.5-6 KFT AGL AFTER 05Z/SUN
AND THEN LOWER AGAIN ONCE THE RAIN STARTS BTWN 13Z AND 15Z TO ARND
2.5 KFT.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 3-7 KTS THIS
MORNING.  THEY WILL BE FROM THE SW TO W AT 3-6 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AT
KPOU/KPSF....AND E/NE AT KGFL/KALB.  THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM
TONIGHT. WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL BE SOUTHEAST AT 3-7 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK. WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THIS WEEK. SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
ONE HALF TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES ARE EXPECTED. THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY ANOTHER ONE TO TWO INCHES IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THIS WEEK. SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY ONE HALF TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES ARE EXPECTED.
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY ANOTHER ONE TO TWO INCHES IS POSSIBLE.

HOWEVER AS THE RAINFALL WILL FALL OVER MANY HOURS...AND COMBINED
WITH RECENT DRYNESS...VEGETATION GREENING ONLY WITHIN BANK RISES
ARE EXPECTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IAA/11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...11/WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER



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000
FXUS61 KBOX 301738
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
138 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON. UNSETTLED
AND COOL WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. A BRIEF DRYING TREND TUESDAY WHICH
MAY LAST INTO WEDNESDAY...THEN MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR LATE
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH SUBSIDENCE. SATELLITE TRENDS
SHOW MORE CLEARING THAN WAS ANTICIPATED. MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOW
MID LEVEL MOISTURE EVEN WHERE SKIES WERE CLEAR THIS MORNING...AND
MORE CLOUDS LINGER TO OUR WEST AND SOUTHWEST. THE FORECAST WILL
HOLD ON TO A FEW CLOUDS BUT OTHERWISE A FINE SUNNY AFTERNOON.

SEA BREEZES TOOK THEIR TIME BUT THE 10 AM OBS SHOW A SOUTH
SOUTHEAST WIND DEVELOPING AT DEER ISLAND AND LOGAN AIRPORT. ALSO
LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS SHOWING ALONG THE MASS EAST COAST. THIS SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON KEEPING COASTAL TEMPS IN THE LOW TO
MID 50S. TEMPS ALOFT AND 10 AM OBSERVED INLAND TEMPS POINT TO
AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 60S...SOME LOW 60S IN THE HILLS AND
ADJACENT TO THE SEA BREEZE ZONE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS
WILL ALLOW CLOUDS TO START MOVING BACK INTO THE AREA AND SKIES WILL
BECOME OVERCAST.  EXPECT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA.

SUNDAY...CHILLY AND WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. LOW
PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES WILL SEND RAIN INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  RAIN WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND CONNECTICUT
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...REACHING THE EAST COAST AROUND NOON. EASTERLY
WINDS AND OVERCAST SKIES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL
FOR THE FIRST OF MAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50.
WITH RAIN AND CLOUDS DELAYED UNTIL THE AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS...TEMPERATURES MAY CLIMB INTO THE MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* PERIODS OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
* DRY AND SEASONABLE TUE...POSSIBLY LASTING INTO WEDNESDAY
* MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE LATE NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW...
AMPLIFIED PATTERN DEVELOPS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS ANOMALOUS MID
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS NORTHERN ROCKIES AND WESTERN CANADA WITH
DOWNSTREAM TROF OVER THE GT LAKES. MODELS IN AGREEMENT ON
AMPLIFICATION OF THIS TROF LATE NEXT WEEK WITH CUTOFF LOW EVENTUALLY
DEVELOPING...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON EVOLUTION AND LOCATION OF THIS
CUTOFF AND SUBSEQUENT SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT SOMEWHERE ALONG THE EAST
COAST WHICH WILL DETERMINE SENSIBLE WEATHER. GENERAL THEME WILL BE A
RETURN TO UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE NEXT WEEK BUT DETAILS ARE VERY
UNCERTAIN.

DETAILS...

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...
OVERRUNNING OF WARM FRONT S OF NEW ENG WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND MODEST
FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL LEAD TO PERIODS OF RAIN SUN NIGHT.  MORE
COMPLEX SCENARIO UNFOLDING MON AS APPROACHING SHORTWAVE LEADS TO A
PRIMARY LOW MOVING TO THE WEST WHILE SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS OVER OR
SOUTH OF NEW ENG. NAM IS OVERDONE WITH HEAVY RAINFALL MON DUE TO ITS
DEPICTION OF A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WHICH SEEMS UNLIKELY. EXPECT
MAINLY LIGHT RAIN TO LINGER INTO MON...THEN TAPERING OFF MON
AFTERNOON AS BEST FORCING LIFTS TO THE NE. TRICKY TEMP FORECAST FOR
MON WHICH WILL DEPEND ON EXACTLY WHERE SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS AS
THERE WILL BE A SURGE OF MILDER AIR TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW. THERE
WILL LIKELY BE A SHARP NORTH TO SOUTH TEMP GRADIENT ACROSS SNE.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...
DRY WEATHER SHOULD RETURN TUE AS THE COLUMN DRIES WITH TEMPS
REBOUNDING TO NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
DRY WEATHER MAY PERSIST INTO WED BUT NOT AS CONFIDENT AS MID LEVEL
TROF WILL BE AMPLIFYING TO THE WEST WITH SFC WAVE LURKING TO THE
SOUTH. LOW CONFIDENCE TEMP FORECAST FOR WED AS GFS INDICATING SW
FLOW AND TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES MILDER THAN ECMWF WHICH HAS EASTERLY
FLOW.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
LOOKS LIKE AN UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH CUTOFF LOW WEST OR SW OF NEW ENG
AND SFC LOW SOMEWHERE NEAR THE EAST COAST. HOWEVER...LOW CONFIDENCE
ON DETAILS AS THERE IS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD AMONG THE DETERMINISTIC
AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REGARDING INTENSITY AND PLACEMENT OF THE SFC
LOW WHICH WILL IMPACT TEMPS AND SENSIBLE WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH TONIGHT...VFR. ONSHORE SEA BREEZE WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS
DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. EAST-NORTHEAST WIND CAPE COD AND ISLANDS
DIMINISHING THIS EVENING.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...RAIN MOVES INTO W MA/CT BETWEEN 11-14Z
SUNDAY REACHING THE EAST COAST BETWEEN 15-18Z. INITIAL VFR IN
LIGHT RAIN DETERIORATES TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN RAIN SUNDAY EVENING
WITH AREAS OF IFR.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

MONDAY...OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN
PERIODS OF RAIN.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR WITH
LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS START TO INCREASE LATE SUNDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES THE WATERS.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

SUNDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EASTERLY WINDS MAY GUST TO 25
KT FOR A TIME WITH BUILDING SEAS. REDUCED VSBYS IN RAIN AND PATCHY
FOG.

MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE ON WINDS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK OF
LOW PRES. ROUGH SEAS...ESPECIALLY EASTERN WATERS. VSBYS REDUCED AT
TIMES IN RAIN AND FOG.

TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LIGHT WINDS BUT LEFTOVER ROUGH SEAS WILL
SLOWLY SUBSIDE.

WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST. LOW PRESSURE TO THE
SOUTH MAY RESULT IN WINDS BEING MORE EASTERLY THAN WHAT IS
CURRENTLY FORECAST.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...WTB/KJC
MARINE...WTB/KJC/RLG




000
FXUS61 KALY 301735
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
135 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL ADVANCE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT TO NEW YORK
LATE SUNDAY...AND STEADILY INTENSIFY MONDAY ALONG THE COAST. IT
WILL BRING A SOAKING RAIN TO START THE WEEK. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL ORGANIZE IN THE THE OTTAWA VALLEY
WEDNESDAY AND SHIFT TO THE COAST THURSDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER
THREAT OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IT WILL BE A WET AND VERY COOL START TO THE MONTH OF MAY.

A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING WITH THE RAIN CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION.

THE SURFACE RIDGE WHICH WAS OVER THE FA WILL CONTINUE TO RETREAT
TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH ON SUNDAY WITH OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION
OVERSPREADING THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS THE ATMOSPHERE
SATURATES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON SUNDAY GENERALLY LOOK TO BE BETWEEN
A QUARTER AND HALF AN INCH. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE CHILLY RUNNING
AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
OVER THIS PERIOD THE FLAT WSW 500 HPA FLOW ACROSS EASTERN USA GRADUALLY
TRANSITIONS INTO A CUT OFF LOW OVER N ONTARIO WITH A TROF TO ITS
SOUTH.  VARIOUS SHORT WVS MOVING IN THIS CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DRIVE
CYCLOGENISUS...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT...TIED TO EACH OF THESE
FEATURES. THROUGH TUES NT THE NAM/GFSGEM AND PVS ECMWF ARE FAIRLY
MUCH IN AGREEMENT.

SUN NT WILL BE THE LULL IN THE PCPN...AS MAJOR 500HPA SHORT WAVE
IS STILL OUT NR CHICAGO...SFC LOW IS IN MIDWEST AND WMFNTS ARE IN
ST LAWRENCE VLY...AND ALONG NJ CST. WITH LITTLE DYNAMICS FORCING
CLOUDS...SCT -SHRA AND MORE LIKELY DRIZZLE WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF
THE NIGHT.

BY LATE SUN NT...THIS SHORT WV AND ITS SFC LOW WILL PUSH INTO E
GRTLKS AND A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE RGN AND
CONTINUE MUCH OF MONDAY. THE SFC LOW WILL TAKE I90 TWRDS
BOSTON...SLIDING OFFSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON AS PCPN TAPERS OFF TO
-SHRA.

WHILE THE GUID SHOWS CONSIDERABLE DRYING IN MEAN LAYERS THE
GENERAL ABSENCE OF MUCH FLOW WILL RESULT IN CLOUDS SLOWLY THINING
TUESDAY. BUT MORE OR LESS A DRY DAY IN MOST AREAS EXCPT IN SE
PORTIONS OF FCA WHERE TRAILING CDFNT FROM DEPARTING SYSTEM WILL
STALL...AND NEXT SFC LOW WILL BEGIN TO ORGANIZE AS NEXT SHORT WV
ROUNDS THE BASE OF 500 HPA TROF...AND HEADS TWRD THE NE USA. ALL
AREAS MAY SEE SCT -SHRA AS THE 500 HPA SHORT WV CROSSES THE RGN
TUES EVNG. LATE TUES NT THE NEXT SHORT WV AND SFC LOW PAIR WILL
MOVE INTO THE GRTLKS AND PUSH -SHRA INTO AREAS N&W OF ALBANY BY
DAYBREAK.

AN UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH COOL WET CONDITIONS MONDAY AND TEMPS BLO
NORMAL THEN REBOUNDING TO NORMAL TEMPS AND MORE SHOWERY PCPN. IF
THE SUN MAKES AN APPEARANCE IT WILL BE TUES AFTN AND EARLY WED
MRNG E. WITH GENERAL GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MDLS THE SUPERBLEND
SHOULD COVER GRIDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS DRY...AND THEN BECOMES INCREASINGLY WET
AND UNSETTLED WITH A MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH EAST OF THE MS RIVER
VALLEY...AND A CUTOFF LOW IMPACTING THE REGION TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WEEK.

TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION AND THE SOUTHEAST...AS A SFC HIGH BUILDS IN OVER NY AND NEW
ENGLAND. THIS ANTICYCLONE WILL BRING A BRIEF WINDOW OF FAIR AND
TRANQUIL WEATHER BASED ON THE LATEST ECMWF/GFS/WPC GUIDANCE.  THE
CANADIAN GGEM IS AN OUTLIER SOLUTION WITH A WAVE MOVING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY PASSING CLOSE TO LONG ISLAND FOR MORE CLOUDS AND SOME
SHOWERS. FAIR AND DRY WX IS EXPECTED WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS...WITH
HIGHS IN THE U50S TO L60S OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U60S IN THE
VALLEY AREAS.

TUE NIGHT INTO WED...A DIGGING NRN STREAM H500 TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
S/SE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...ATTEMPTING TO PHASE WITH A SRN
STREAM UPPER LOW NEAR THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. SOME CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NRN STREAM TROUGH...AND A SFC COLD FRONT.
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY WITH THE WEAK WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.  LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO M40S WITH SOME U30S
OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND SRN GREENS.  THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
VARIES SOME ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE BROAD H500 UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
ERN CONUS WED...WHICH IS DELAYING THE ONSET OF SHOWERS.  THERE IS
ENOUGH SYNOPTIC FORCING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND THE NRN STREAM
H500 TROUGH FOR AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY.  HIGHS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TUE.

WED NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THE LONGWAVE TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY
TILTED WED NIGHT INTO THU FOR A COASTAL LOW TO FORM NEAR THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION.  THE ENSEMBLES AND MEDIUM RANGE DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE INDICATE DECENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF AND WRN
ATLANTIC FOR SCT SHOWERS TO BREAK OUT ESPECIALLY FROM THE MOHAWK
VALLEY SOUTH AND EAST WED NIGHT...AND THEN OVER THE ENTIRE REGION BY
THU.  POPS WERE HELD IN THE HIGH CHC RANGE...BUT MAY NEED TO BE
RAISED TO LIKELY IN THE NEAR FUTURE.  A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN IS
LIKELY THU-THU NIGHT WITH STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT...AND DIFFERENTIAL
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION YIELDING PERIODS OF RAIN.  THE
GFS/ECMWF/ENSEMBLES VARY A BIT IN THE EXACT LOCATION...BUT LATE THU
INTO THU NIGHT THE H500 LOW CUTS OFF OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...OR AS FAR NORTH AS THE PA/NY BORDER.  SCT SHOWERS LOOK TO
CONTINUE THU NIGHT INTO FRI.  THE CUTOFF LOOKS TO HANG AROUND INTO
THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. SHOWERY AND COOL WEATHER WILL
PERSIST...AS THIS PATTERN RESEMBLES MORE APRIL THAN MAY.  LOWS WILL
BE IN THE U30S TO M40S...WITH HIGHS IN THE M50S TO U60S OVER THE
FCST AREA TO CLOSE THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BACK IN FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AHEAD
OF A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE
MIDWEST.

CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY VFR THE NEXT 18 HOURS...THEN GRADUALLY
BECOME MVFR BTWN 13Z AND 15Z AS RAIN OVERSPREADS THE AREA. THE
CIGS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SCT-BKN IN THE 3.5-6 KFT AGL RANGE
WITH SCT-BKN CIRRUS. THE CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER A BIT
TOWARDS 22Z/SAT TO 01Z/SUN AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTH. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY RAIN REACHING A TAF SITE BEFORE
12Z/SUN WILL BE KPOU...AND A VCSH GROUP WAS USED STARTED AT
09Z/01. CIGS WILL GENERALLY LOWER TO 3.5-6 KFT AGL AFTER 05Z/SUN
AND THEN LOWER AGAIN ONCE THE RAIN STARTS BTWN 13Z AND 15Z TO ARND
2.5 KFT.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 3-7 KTS THIS
MORNING.  THEY WILL BE FROM THE SW TO W AT 3-6 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AT
KPOU/KPSF....AND E/NE AT KGFL/KALB.  THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM
TONIGHT. WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL BE SOUTHEAST AT 3-7 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
OVERSPREADING THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE RAIN
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND
CROSSES THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ARE
FORECAST. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REST
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN 30S
ACROSS THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT...WITH VALUES OTHERWISE MAINLY IN THE 40S. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT TODAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

DRY WEATHER TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
OVERSPREADING THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE RAIN
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND
CROSSES THE REGION. QPF AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ARE FORECAST. THIS
RAINFALL WILL BE BENEFICIAL DUE TO DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS FOR
THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REST WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IAA/11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...11/WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA



  [top]

000
FXUS61 KOKX 301735
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
135 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A
WARM FRONT APPROACHES SUNDAY...STALLING OUT TO THE SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG
IT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY SLIDES
OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT. A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN BRING
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY MORNING CLOUDS HAVE ERODED AS RIDGE BUILDS. HOWEVER...SC
CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED AND GENERALLY EXPECT SCT TO BKN CLOUDS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY.

TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NEAR THE
COAST...AND MID 60S INTERIOR. THE SEABREEZE SHOULD ALLOW FOR WIND
GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH AT COASTAL AREAS AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE AXIS OF THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE SLIDES TO THE EAST
TONIGHT...HOW FAST IT DOES SO WILL DETERMINE HOW FAST RAIN MOVES
INTO THE TRI-STATE AFTER MIDNIGHT. MINDFUL THAT THE GFS HAS A BIAS
OF BEING TO PROGRESSIVE WITH DEEP LAYERED RIDGING MOVING OFF THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD...LEANED TOWARDS SLOWER ECMWF/NAM. KEPT FAR
EASTERN AREAS DRY...AND LIMITED LIKELY POPS TO FAR WESTERN ZONES
LATE TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WERE BASED ON A BLEND OF MET/ECS/MAV
GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES...AND SHOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

00Z ECMWF IS THE ONLY MODEL WHICH DOES NOT DEVELOP A SECONDARY LOW
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN TRACK THE LOW S
OF LONG ISLAND MONDAY. THE CMC DOES THIS...IT JUST TRACKS THE LOW
TO THE S OF LONG ISLAND MUCH FASTER THAN OTHER GUIDANCE. THE 00Z
ECMWF IS ALSO THE ONLY MODEL TO NOT HAVE A FRONT MOVE FAR ENOUGH S
MONDAY NIGHT TO PRECLUDE RAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE RIDE ALONG IT. THIS IS BECAUSE IT IS FARTHER N
THAN OTHER MODELS WITH A 700 HPA SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
VORTICITY MAXIMA AS THEY TRANSIT THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST SUNDAY
NIGHT-MONDAY. THE 00Z CMC TAKES THE FRONT ABOUT AS FAR S AS THE
NON 00Z-ECMWF MODELS...HOWEVER IT HAS A STRONGER WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE RIDE ALONG THE FRONT THAN OTHER GUIDANCE. AS A RESULT
DID NOT INCLUDE THE 00Z ECMWF OR CMC-GLOBAL IN THE BLEND OF
GUIDANCE SUNDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER DID USE THE 12Z/29 ECMWF
AS IT WAS MORE CONSISTENT WITH REMAINDER OF 00Z MODEL SUITE.

AS A RESULT...EXPECT PERIODS OF RAIN TO DEVELOP FROM SW TO NE
SUNDAY MORNING...WITH THE RAIN LIKELY CONTINUING SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING...BEFORE TAPERING OFF MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE EXITS TO THE NE. ALSO WITH THE REGION
PROGGED TO HAVE SHOWALTERS OF -2 TO 2 FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AND TO BE IN A COUPLED UPPER JET STRUCTURE ON MONDAY...HAVE
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR MONDAY. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD
BE OF AN ELEVATED NATURE.

FOR HIGHS SUNDAY...A BLEND OF MAV/MET/12Z ECS GUIDANCE...00Z NAM
AND 12Z ECMWF 2-METER TEMPERATURES...AND A MIX DOWN FROM 975-950
HPA WAS USED PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 10-15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FOR LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT A BLEND OF 12Z ECS/00Z
MET/MAV GUIDANCE WITH 12Z ECMWF AND 00Z NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES
WAS USED...WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND NORMAL. HIGHS MONDAY
SHOULD BE AROUND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...CONSISTENT WITH A
BLEND OF MIX DOWN FROM 975-900 HPA...00Z NAM AND 12Z ECMWF 2-METER
TEMPERATURES...AND A MIXTURE OF 00Z MAV/MET AND 12Z ECS GUIDANCE.

WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN MONDAY NIGHT...SO IT SHOULD BE DRY. LOWS
WERE BASED ON A BLEND OF 00Z NAM AND 12Z ECMWF 2-METER
TEMPERATURES WITH A BLEND OF MEX/MEN/EKD/12Z ECE/ECM GUIDANCE.
LOWS SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IT SHOULD BE DRY ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW LEVELS SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENTLY DRY TO PRECLUDE PRECIPITATION EVEN WITH A 700-500 HPA
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE REGION.

THERE REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF VARIANCE IN MODEL SOLUTIONS TUESDAY
NIGHT-FRIDAY. IN A SWITCH FROM THE 12Z RUNS...THE 00Z ECMWF NOW
ENDS UP WITH THE CUTOFF LOW TO THE N BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND
THE GFS HAS IT TO OUR S. THE REASONS DEAL WITH DIFFERENCES IN
HANDLING A CUTOFF LOW OVER HUDSON BAY AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY
TRACKING DOWN ITS SW FLANK.

GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY LIMITED POPS TUESDAY NIGHT TO SLIGHT
CHANCE...THEN POPS WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY (THIS IS THEN GENERAL TIME
FRAME WHEN REGARDLESS OF SOLUTION THE MODELS INDICATED THE BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IN ALL SOLUTIONS) TO LOW END
CHANCE...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

THIS IS A VERY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM
PERIOD DUE TO THE LARGE MODEL SPREAD AND RUN TO RUN
VARIABILITY. THIS UNCERTAINTY IS AMPLIFIED BY THE MODELS
FORECASTING CUTOFF LOWS...WHICH IS AN ITEM THEY ALL HAVE A LOWER
THAN AVERAGE SKILL AT FORECASTING.

FOR TEMPERATURES TUESDAY-FRIDAY THE SUPER BLEND WAS USED. FOR NOW
FORECASTING BELOW NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL IN THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA MOVES OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. LOW PRES
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY...AND PASSES THROUGH THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

VFR THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. SEA BREEZES WILL MOVE THROUGH COASTAL
TERMINALS...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE S AT 8-12 KT.

WINDS BECOME LGT/VRB THIS EVENING...THEN SHIFT TO THE E-SE SUNDAY
MORNING AT 5-10 KT.

-RA DEVELOPS SUNDAY MORNING...BUT CONDS DO NOT FALL TO MVFR UNTIL
14-16Z. RA DEVELOPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND CONDS FALL TO
IFR...MAINLY AFT 18Z SUNDAY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY...IFR CONDS IN PERIODS OF RA. E
WINDS...BECOMING NW MONDAY AFTERNOON. OCNL GUSTS TO 20 KT POSSIBLE
AT COASTAL TERMINALS.
.TUESDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN RA IN THE MORNING...THEN VFR.
.WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...OCNL PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER IN
-SHRA/FOG/STATUS.

&&

.MARINE...
OCEAN SEAS CONTINUE TO HOVER AROUND 5 FEET. HAVE EXTENDED THE
SCA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...22Z. NON OCEAN WATERS REMAIN
TRANQUIL...LIGHT WINDS AND 1 FT OR LESS SEAS/WAVES.

A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS WILL KEEP WINDS TO 10
KT OR LESS OVER THE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS
THEN CONTINUE FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY MORNING.
WINDS AND SEAS THEN PICK UP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STORM.

IT LOOKS LIKE SCA WILL BE NEEDED FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AT LEAST ON
THE OCEAN...AND MAYBE FOR THE SOUND. A BETTER CHANCE FOR 25KT
GUSTS ON THE SOUND AND PERHAPS FOR THE HARBOR AND BAYS ARRIVES
SUNDAY NIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS OTHERWISE ON THE OCEAN THROUGH AT
LEAST MONDAY...AND POSSIBLY INTO A PORTION OF MONDAY NIGHT AS SEAS
SLOWLY SUBSIDE.

A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT THEN MAINTAINS SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL
WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
IT SHOULD BE DRY THROUGH AT LEAST THIS EVENING.

FROM AROUND 3/4-1 INCH OF RAIN IS FORECAST FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY EVENING...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. AT THIS
TIME THERE IS A LOW RISK OF PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS FOR
AREAS EXPERIENCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL DURING
THE MIDDLE TO LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/PW
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...JC/MALOIT/PW
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT




000
FXUS61 KALY 301718
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
118 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL ADVANCE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT TO NEW YORK
LATE SUNDAY...AND STEADILY INTENSIFY MONDAY ALONG THE COAST. IT
WILL BRING A SOAKING RAIN TO START THE WEEK. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL ORGANIZE IN THE THE OTTAWA VALLEY
WEDNESDAY AND SHIFT TO THE COAST THURSDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER
THREAT OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1215 PM EDT...HIGH PRESSURE WAS ANCHORED SOUTH OF NOVA
SCOTIA. IT WAS A MILD MID DAY FOR LATE APRIL WITH TEMPERATURES
ALREADY IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60.

TODAY WILL BE THE DRY AND WARMER DAY OF THE WEEKEND. RIDGING WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TODAY BETWEEN SHORT
WAVES. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST WITH HIGHS FROM THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S. THE MID 60S ARE EXPECTED IN THE HUDSON AND
MOHAWK VALLEYS.

WET AND VERY COOL START TO MAY.

A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING WITH THE RAIN CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION.

THE RIDGING WILL SHIFT EAST AND FLATTEN AS SHORT WAVES APPROACHES AND
A TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE SURFACE RIDGING WILL
WEAKEN AND RETREAT NORTHWARD. CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ORIGINATING FROM OVER THE PLAINS WILL APPROACH WITH
OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADING THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING AS THE ATMOSPHERE SATURATES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON SUNDAY
GENERALLY LOOK TO BE BETWEEN A QUARTER AND HALF AN INCH.
HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE CHILLY RUNNING AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER ON MONDAY BUT STILL COOL WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
OVER THIS PERIOD THE FLAT WSW 500 HPA FLOW ACROSS EASTERN USA GRADUALLY
TRANSITIONS INTO A CUT OFF LOW OVER N ONTARIO WITH A TROF TO ITS
SOUTH.  VARIOUS SHORT WVS MOVING IN THIS CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DRIVE
CYCLOGENISUS...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT...TIED TO EACH OF THESE
FEATURES. THROUGH TUES NT THE NAM/GFSGEM AND PVS ECMWF ARE FAIRLY
MUCH IN AGREEMENT.

SUN NT WILL BE THE LULL IN THE PCPN...AS MAJOR 500HPA SHORT WAVE
IS STILL OUT NR CHICAGO...SFC LOW IS IN MIDWEST AND WMFNTS ARE IN
ST LAWRENCE VLY...AND ALONG NJ CST. WITH LITTLE DYNAMICS FORCING
CLOUDS...SCT -SHRA AND MORE LIKELY DRIZZLE WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF
THE NIGHT.

BY LATE SUN NT...THIS SHORT WV AND ITS SFC LOW WILL PUSH INTO E
GRTLKS AND A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE RGN AND
CONTINUE MUCH OF MONDAY. THE SFC LOW WILL TAKE I90 TWRDS
BOSTON...SLIDING OFFSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON AS PCPN TAPERS OFF TO
-SHRA.

WHILE THE GUID SHOWS CONSIDERABLE DRYING IN MEAN LAYERS THE
GENERAL ABSENCE OF MUCH FLOW WILL RESULT IN CLOUDS SLOWLY THINING
TUESDAY. BUT MORE OR LESS A DRY DAY IN MOST AREAS EXCPT IN SE
PORTIONS OF FCA WHERE TRAILING CDFNT FROM DEPARTING SYSTEM WILL
STALL...AND NEXT SFC LOW WILL BEGIN TO ORGANIZE AS NEXT SHORT WV
ROUNDS THE BASE OF 500 HPA TROF...AND HEADS TWRD THE NE USA. ALL
AREAS MAY SEE SCT -SHRA AS THE 500 HPA SHORT WV CROSSES THE RGN
TUES EVNG. LATE TUES NT THE NEXT SHORT WV AND SFC LOW PAIR WILL
MOVE INTO THE GRTLKS AND PUSH -SHRA INTO AREAS N&W OF ALBANY BY
DAYBREAK.

AN UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH COOL WET CONDITIONS MONDAY AND TEMPS BLO
NORMAL THEN REBOUNDING TO NORMAL TEMPS AND MORE SHOWERY PCPN. IF
THE SUN MAKES AN APPEARANCE IT WILL BE TUES AFTN AND EARLY WED
MRNG E. WITH GENERAL GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MDLS THE SUPERBLEND
SHOULD COVER GRIDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS DRY...AND THEN BECOMES INCREASINGLY WET
AND UNSETTLED WITH A MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH EAST OF THE MS RIVER
VALLEY...AND A CUTOFF LOW IMPACTING THE REGION TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WEEK.

TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION AND THE SOUTHEAST...AS A SFC HIGH BUILDS IN OVER NY AND NEW
ENGLAND. THIS ANTICYCLONE WILL BRING A BRIEF WINDOW OF FAIR AND
TRANQUIL WEATHER BASED ON THE LATEST ECMWF/GFS/WPC GUIDANCE.  THE
CANADIAN GGEM IS AN OUTLIER SOLUTION WITH A WAVE MOVING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY PASSING CLOSE TO LONG ISLAND FOR MORE CLOUDS AND SOME
SHOWERS. FAIR AND DRY WX IS EXPECTED WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS...WITH
HIGHS IN THE U50S TO L60S OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U60S IN THE
VALLEY AREAS.

TUE NIGHT INTO WED...A DIGGING NRN STREAM H500 TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
S/SE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...ATTEMPTING TO PHASE WITH A SRN
STREAM UPPER LOW NEAR THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. SOME CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NRN STREAM TROUGH...AND A SFC COLD FRONT.
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY WITH THE WEAK WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.  LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO M40S WITH SOME U30S
OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND SRN GREENS.  THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
VARIES SOME ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE BROAD H500 UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
ERN CONUS WED...WHICH IS DELAYING THE ONSET OF SHOWERS.  THERE IS
ENOUGH SYNOPTIC FORCING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND THE NRN STREAM
H500 TROUGH FOR AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY.  HIGHS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TUE.

WED NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THE LONGWAVE TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY
TILTED WED NIGHT INTO THU FOR A COASTAL LOW TO FORM NEAR THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION.  THE ENSEMBLES AND MEDIUM RANGE DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE INDICATE DECENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF AND WRN
ATLANTIC FOR SCT SHOWERS TO BREAK OUT ESPECIALLY FROM THE MOHAWK
VALLEY SOUTH AND EAST WED NIGHT...AND THEN OVER THE ENTIRE REGION BY
THU.  POPS WERE HELD IN THE HIGH CHC RANGE...BUT MAY NEED TO BE
RAISED TO LIKELY IN THE NEAR FUTURE.  A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN IS
LIKELY THU-THU NIGHT WITH STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT...AND DIFFERENTIAL
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION YIELDING PERIODS OF RAIN.  THE
GFS/ECMWF/ENSEMBLES VARY A BIT IN THE EXACT LOCATION...BUT LATE THU
INTO THU NIGHT THE H500 LOW CUTS OFF OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...OR AS FAR NORTH AS THE PA/NY BORDER.  SCT SHOWERS LOOK TO
CONTINUE THU NIGHT INTO FRI.  THE CUTOFF LOOKS TO HANG AROUND INTO
THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. SHOWERY AND COOL WEATHER WILL
PERSIST...AS THIS PATTERN RESEMBLES MORE APRIL THAN MAY.  LOWS WILL
BE IN THE U30S TO M40S...WITH HIGHS IN THE M50S TO U60S OVER THE
FCST AREA TO CLOSE THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BACK IN FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AHEAD
OF A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE
MIDWEST.

CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY VFR THE NEXT 18 HOURS...THEN GRADUALLY
BECOME MVFR BTWN 13Z AND 15Z AS RAIN OVERSPREADS THE AREA. THE
CIGS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SCT-BKN IN THE 3.5-6 KFT AGL RANGE
WITH SCT-BKN CIRRUS. THE CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER A BIT
TOWARDS 22Z/SAT TO 01Z/SUN AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTH. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY RAIN REACHING A TAF SITE BEFORE
12Z/SUN WILL BE KPOU...AND A VCSH GROUP WAS USED STARTED AT
09Z/01. CIGS WILL GENERALLY LOWER TO 3.5-6 KFT AGL AFTER 05Z/SUN
AND THEN LOWER AGAIN ONCE THE RAIN STARTS BTWN 13Z AND 15Z TO ARND
2.5 KFT.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 3-7 KTS THIS
MORNING.  THEY WILL BE FROM THE SW TO W AT 3-6 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AT
KPOU/KPSF....AND E/NE AT KGFL/KALB.  THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM
TONIGHT. WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL BE SOUTHEAST AT 3-7 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
OVERSPREADING THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE RAIN
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND
CROSSES THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ARE
FORECAST. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REST
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN 30S
ACROSS THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT...WITH VALUES OTHERWISE MAINLY IN THE 40S. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT TODAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

DRY WEATHER TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
OVERSPREADING THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE RAIN
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND
CROSSES THE REGION. QPF AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ARE FORECAST. THIS
RAINFALL WILL BE BENEFICIAL DUE TO DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS FOR
THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REST WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IAA/11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...11/WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 301718
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
118 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL ADVANCE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT TO NEW YORK
LATE SUNDAY...AND STEADILY INTENSIFY MONDAY ALONG THE COAST. IT
WILL BRING A SOAKING RAIN TO START THE WEEK. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL ORGANIZE IN THE THE OTTAWA VALLEY
WEDNESDAY AND SHIFT TO THE COAST THURSDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER
THREAT OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1215 PM EDT...HIGH PRESSURE WAS ANCHORED SOUTH OF NOVA
SCOTIA. IT WAS A MILD MID DAY FOR LATE APRIL WITH TEMPERATURES
ALREADY IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60.

TODAY WILL BE THE DRY AND WARMER DAY OF THE WEEKEND. RIDGING WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TODAY BETWEEN SHORT
WAVES. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST WITH HIGHS FROM THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S. THE MID 60S ARE EXPECTED IN THE HUDSON AND
MOHAWK VALLEYS.

WET AND VERY COOL START TO MAY.

A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING WITH THE RAIN CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION.

THE RIDGING WILL SHIFT EAST AND FLATTEN AS SHORT WAVES APPROACHES AND
A TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE SURFACE RIDGING WILL
WEAKEN AND RETREAT NORTHWARD. CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ORIGINATING FROM OVER THE PLAINS WILL APPROACH WITH
OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADING THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING AS THE ATMOSPHERE SATURATES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON SUNDAY
GENERALLY LOOK TO BE BETWEEN A QUARTER AND HALF AN INCH.
HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE CHILLY RUNNING AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER ON MONDAY BUT STILL COOL WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
OVER THIS PERIOD THE FLAT WSW 500 HPA FLOW ACROSS EASTERN USA GRADUALLY
TRANSITIONS INTO A CUT OFF LOW OVER N ONTARIO WITH A TROF TO ITS
SOUTH.  VARIOUS SHORT WVS MOVING IN THIS CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DRIVE
CYCLOGENISUS...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT...TIED TO EACH OF THESE
FEATURES. THROUGH TUES NT THE NAM/GFSGEM AND PVS ECMWF ARE FAIRLY
MUCH IN AGREEMENT.

SUN NT WILL BE THE LULL IN THE PCPN...AS MAJOR 500HPA SHORT WAVE
IS STILL OUT NR CHICAGO...SFC LOW IS IN MIDWEST AND WMFNTS ARE IN
ST LAWRENCE VLY...AND ALONG NJ CST. WITH LITTLE DYNAMICS FORCING
CLOUDS...SCT -SHRA AND MORE LIKELY DRIZZLE WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF
THE NIGHT.

BY LATE SUN NT...THIS SHORT WV AND ITS SFC LOW WILL PUSH INTO E
GRTLKS AND A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE RGN AND
CONTINUE MUCH OF MONDAY. THE SFC LOW WILL TAKE I90 TWRDS
BOSTON...SLIDING OFFSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON AS PCPN TAPERS OFF TO
-SHRA.

WHILE THE GUID SHOWS CONSIDERABLE DRYING IN MEAN LAYERS THE
GENERAL ABSENCE OF MUCH FLOW WILL RESULT IN CLOUDS SLOWLY THINING
TUESDAY. BUT MORE OR LESS A DRY DAY IN MOST AREAS EXCPT IN SE
PORTIONS OF FCA WHERE TRAILING CDFNT FROM DEPARTING SYSTEM WILL
STALL...AND NEXT SFC LOW WILL BEGIN TO ORGANIZE AS NEXT SHORT WV
ROUNDS THE BASE OF 500 HPA TROF...AND HEADS TWRD THE NE USA. ALL
AREAS MAY SEE SCT -SHRA AS THE 500 HPA SHORT WV CROSSES THE RGN
TUES EVNG. LATE TUES NT THE NEXT SHORT WV AND SFC LOW PAIR WILL
MOVE INTO THE GRTLKS AND PUSH -SHRA INTO AREAS N&W OF ALBANY BY
DAYBREAK.

AN UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH COOL WET CONDITIONS MONDAY AND TEMPS BLO
NORMAL THEN REBOUNDING TO NORMAL TEMPS AND MORE SHOWERY PCPN. IF
THE SUN MAKES AN APPEARANCE IT WILL BE TUES AFTN AND EARLY WED
MRNG E. WITH GENERAL GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MDLS THE SUPERBLEND
SHOULD COVER GRIDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS DRY...AND THEN BECOMES INCREASINGLY WET
AND UNSETTLED WITH A MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH EAST OF THE MS RIVER
VALLEY...AND A CUTOFF LOW IMPACTING THE REGION TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WEEK.

TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION AND THE SOUTHEAST...AS A SFC HIGH BUILDS IN OVER NY AND NEW
ENGLAND. THIS ANTICYCLONE WILL BRING A BRIEF WINDOW OF FAIR AND
TRANQUIL WEATHER BASED ON THE LATEST ECMWF/GFS/WPC GUIDANCE.  THE
CANADIAN GGEM IS AN OUTLIER SOLUTION WITH A WAVE MOVING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY PASSING CLOSE TO LONG ISLAND FOR MORE CLOUDS AND SOME
SHOWERS. FAIR AND DRY WX IS EXPECTED WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS...WITH
HIGHS IN THE U50S TO L60S OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U60S IN THE
VALLEY AREAS.

TUE NIGHT INTO WED...A DIGGING NRN STREAM H500 TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
S/SE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...ATTEMPTING TO PHASE WITH A SRN
STREAM UPPER LOW NEAR THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. SOME CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NRN STREAM TROUGH...AND A SFC COLD FRONT.
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY WITH THE WEAK WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.  LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO M40S WITH SOME U30S
OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND SRN GREENS.  THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
VARIES SOME ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE BROAD H500 UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
ERN CONUS WED...WHICH IS DELAYING THE ONSET OF SHOWERS.  THERE IS
ENOUGH SYNOPTIC FORCING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND THE NRN STREAM
H500 TROUGH FOR AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY.  HIGHS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TUE.

WED NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THE LONGWAVE TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY
TILTED WED NIGHT INTO THU FOR A COASTAL LOW TO FORM NEAR THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION.  THE ENSEMBLES AND MEDIUM RANGE DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE INDICATE DECENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF AND WRN
ATLANTIC FOR SCT SHOWERS TO BREAK OUT ESPECIALLY FROM THE MOHAWK
VALLEY SOUTH AND EAST WED NIGHT...AND THEN OVER THE ENTIRE REGION BY
THU.  POPS WERE HELD IN THE HIGH CHC RANGE...BUT MAY NEED TO BE
RAISED TO LIKELY IN THE NEAR FUTURE.  A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN IS
LIKELY THU-THU NIGHT WITH STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT...AND DIFFERENTIAL
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION YIELDING PERIODS OF RAIN.  THE
GFS/ECMWF/ENSEMBLES VARY A BIT IN THE EXACT LOCATION...BUT LATE THU
INTO THU NIGHT THE H500 LOW CUTS OFF OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...OR AS FAR NORTH AS THE PA/NY BORDER.  SCT SHOWERS LOOK TO
CONTINUE THU NIGHT INTO FRI.  THE CUTOFF LOOKS TO HANG AROUND INTO
THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. SHOWERY AND COOL WEATHER WILL
PERSIST...AS THIS PATTERN RESEMBLES MORE APRIL THAN MAY.  LOWS WILL
BE IN THE U30S TO M40S...WITH HIGHS IN THE M50S TO U60S OVER THE
FCST AREA TO CLOSE THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BACK IN FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AHEAD
OF A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE
MIDWEST.

CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY VFR THE NEXT 18 HOURS...THEN GRADUALLY
BECOME MVFR BTWN 13Z AND 15Z AS RAIN OVERSPREADS THE AREA. THE
CIGS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SCT-BKN IN THE 3.5-6 KFT AGL RANGE
WITH SCT-BKN CIRRUS. THE CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER A BIT
TOWARDS 22Z/SAT TO 01Z/SUN AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTH. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY RAIN REACHING A TAF SITE BEFORE
12Z/SUN WILL BE KPOU...AND A VCSH GROUP WAS USED STARTED AT
09Z/01. CIGS WILL GENERALLY LOWER TO 3.5-6 KFT AGL AFTER 05Z/SUN
AND THEN LOWER AGAIN ONCE THE RAIN STARTS BTWN 13Z AND 15Z TO ARND
2.5 KFT.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 3-7 KTS THIS
MORNING.  THEY WILL BE FROM THE SW TO W AT 3-6 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AT
KPOU/KPSF....AND E/NE AT KGFL/KALB.  THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM
TONIGHT. WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL BE SOUTHEAST AT 3-7 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
OVERSPREADING THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE RAIN
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND
CROSSES THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ARE
FORECAST. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REST
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN 30S
ACROSS THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT...WITH VALUES OTHERWISE MAINLY IN THE 40S. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT TODAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

DRY WEATHER TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
OVERSPREADING THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE RAIN
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND
CROSSES THE REGION. QPF AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ARE FORECAST. THIS
RAINFALL WILL BE BENEFICIAL DUE TO DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS FOR
THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REST WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IAA/11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...11/WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 301611
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1211 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
OVERSPREADING THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE RAIN
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND
CROSSES THE REGION. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER THEN EXPECTED FOR
THE REST WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1215 PM EDT...HIGH PRESSURE WAS ANCHORED SOUTH OF NOVA
SCOTIA. IT WAS A MILD MID DAY FOR LATE APRIL WITH TEMPERATURES
ALREADY IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60.

TODAY WILL BE THE DRY AND WARMER DAY OF THE WEEKEND. RIDGING WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TODAY BETWEEN SHORT
WAVES. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST WITH HIGHS FROM THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S. THE MID 60S ARE EXPECTED IN THE HUDSON AND
MOHAWK VALLEYS.

WET AND VERY COOL START TO MAY.

A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING WITH THE RAIN CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION.

THE RIDGING WILL SHIFT EAST AND FLATTEN AS SHORT WAVES APPROACHES AND
A TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE SURFACE RIDGING WILL
WEAKEN AND RETREAT NORTHWARD. CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ORIGINATING FROM OVER THE PLAINS WILL APPROACH WITH
OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADING THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING AS THE ATMOSPHERE SATURATES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON SUNDAY
GENERALLY LOOK TO BE BETWEEN A QUARTER AND HALF AN INCH.
HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE CHILLY RUNNING AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER ON MONDAY BUT STILL COOL WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A LULL IN THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT
BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF STEADY RAINFALL OCCURS ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY MAINLY IN THE MORNING. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE RATHER
CHILLY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED FOR
MONDAY NIGHT. AN ADDITIONAL QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED WITH THE RAIN TAPERING OFF MONDAY EVENING. EXPECT LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S WITH HIGHS ON
MONDAY IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS DRY...AND THEN BECOMES INCREASINGLY WET
AND UNSETTLED WITH A MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH EAST OF THE MS RIVER
VALLEY...AND A CUTOFF LOW IMPACTING THE REGION TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WEEK.

TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION AND THE SOUTHEAST...AS A SFC HIGH BUILDS IN OVER NY AND NEW
ENGLAND. THIS ANTICYCLONE WILL BRING A BRIEF WINDOW OF FAIR AND
TRANQUIL WEATHER BASED ON THE LATEST ECMWF/GFS/WPC GUIDANCE.  THE
CANADIAN GGEM IS AN OUTLIER SOLUTION WITH A WAVE MOVING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY PASSING CLOSE TO LONG ISLAND FOR MORE CLOUDS AND SOME
SHOWERS. FAIR AND DRY WX IS EXPECTED WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS...WITH
HIGHS IN THE U50S TO L60S OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U60S IN THE
VALLEY AREAS.

TUE NIGHT INTO WED...A DIGGING NRN STREAM H500 TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
S/SE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...ATTEMPTING TO PHASE WITH A SRN
STREAM UPPER LOW NEAR THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. SOME CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NRN STREAM TROUGH...AND A SFC COLD FRONT.
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY WITH THE WEAK WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.  LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO M40S WITH SOME U30S
OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND SRN GREENS.  THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
VARIES SOME ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE BROAD H500 UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
ERN CONUS WED...WHICH IS DELAYING THE ONSET OF SHOWERS.  THERE IS
ENOUGH SYNOPTIC FORCING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND THE NRN STREAM
H500 TROUGH FOR AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY.  HIGHS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TUE.

WED NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THE LONGWAVE TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY
TILTED WED NIGHT INTO THU FOR A COASTAL LOW TO FORM NEAR THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION.  THE ENSEMBLES AND MEDIUM RANGE DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE INDICATE DECENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF AND WRN
ATLANTIC FOR SCT SHOWERS TO BREAK OUT ESPECIALLY FROM THE MOHAWK
VALLEY SOUTH AND EAST WED NIGHT...AND THEN OVER THE ENTIRE REGION BY
THU.  POPS WERE HELD IN THE HIGH CHC RANGE...BUT MAY NEED TO BE
RAISED TO LIKELY IN THE NEAR FUTURE.  A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN IS
LIKELY THU-THU NIGHT WITH STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT...AND DIFFERENTIAL
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION YIELDING PERIODS OF RAIN.  THE
GFS/ECMWF/ENSEMBLES VARY A BIT IN THE EXACT LOCATION...BUT LATE THU
INTO THU NIGHT THE H500 LOW CUTS OFF OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...OR AS FAR NORTH AS THE PA/NY BORDER.  SCT SHOWERS LOOK TO
CONTINUE THU NIGHT INTO FRI.  THE CUTOFF LOOKS TO HANG AROUND INTO
THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. SHOWERY AND COOL WEATHER WILL
PERSIST...AS THIS PATTERN RESEMBLES MORE APRIL THAN MAY.  LOWS WILL
BE IN THE U30S TO M40S...WITH HIGHS IN THE M50S TO U60S OVER THE
FCST AREA TO CLOSE THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BACK IN FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AHEAD
OF A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE
MIDWEST.

CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY VFR THE NEXT 18 HOURS...THEN GRADUALLY
BECOME MVFR BTWN 13Z AND 15Z AS RAIN OVERSPREADS THE AREA. THE
CIGS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SCT-BKN IN THE 3.5-6 KFT AGL RANGE
WITH SCT-BKN CIRRUS. THE CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER A BIT
TOWARDS 22Z/SAT TO 01Z/SUN AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTH. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY RAIN REACHING A TAF SITE BEFORE
12Z/SUN WILL BE KPOU...AND A VCSH GROUP WAS USED STARTED AT
09Z/01. CIGS WILL GENERALLY LOWER TO 3.5-6 KFT AGL AFTER 05Z/SUN
AND THEN LOWER AGAIN ONCE THE RAIN STARTS BTWN 13Z AND 15Z TO ARND
2.5 KFT.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 3-7 KTS THIS
MORNING.  THEY WILL BE FROM THE SW TO W AT 3-6 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AT
KPOU/KPSF....AND E/NE AT KGFL/KALB.  THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM
TONIGHT. WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL BE SOUTHEAST AT 3-7 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
OVERSPREADING THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE RAIN
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND
CROSSES THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ARE
FORECAST. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REST
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN 30S
ACROSS THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT...WITH VALUES OTHERWISE MAINLY IN THE 40S. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT TODAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

DRY WEATHER TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
OVERSPREADING THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE RAIN
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND
CROSSES THE REGION. QPF AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ARE FORECAST. THIS
RAINFALL WILL BE BENEFICIAL DUE TO DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS FOR
THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REST WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/11
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...11/WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA




000
FXUS61 KOKX 301554
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1154 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A
WARM FRONT APPROACHES SUNDAY...STALLING OUT TO THE SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG
IT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY SLIDES
OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT. A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN BRING
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY MORNING CLOUDS HAVE ERODED AS RIDGE BUILDS. HOWEVER...SC
CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED AND GENERALLY EXPECT SCT TO BKN CLOUDS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY.

TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NEAR THE
COAST...AND MID 60S INTERIOR. THE SEABREEZE SHOULD ALLOW FOR WIND
GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH AT COASTAL AREAS AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE AXIS OF THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE SLIDES TO THE EAST
TONIGHT...HOW FAST IT DOES SO WILL DETERMINE HOW FAST RAIN MOVES
INTO THE TRI-STATE AFTER MIDNIGHT. MINDFUL THAT THE GFS HAS A BIAS
OF BEING TO PROGRESSIVE WITH DEEP LAYERED RIDGING MOVING OFF THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD...LEANED TOWARDS SLOWER ECMWF/NAM. KEPT FAR
EASTERN AREAS DRY...AND LIMITED LIKELY POPS TO FAR WESTERN ZONES
LATE TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WERE BASED ON A BLEND OF MET/ECS/MAV
GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES...AND SHOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

00Z ECMWF IS THE ONLY MODEL WHICH DOES NOT DEVELOP A SECONDARY LOW
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN TRACK THE LOW S
OF LONG ISLAND MONDAY. THE CMC DOES THIS...IT JUST TRACKS THE LOW
TO THE S OF LONG ISLAND MUCH FASTER THAN OTHER GUIDANCE. THE 00Z
ECMWF IS ALSO THE ONLY MODEL TO NOT HAVE A FRONT MOVE FAR ENOUGH S
MONDAY NIGHT TO PRECLUDE RAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE RIDE ALONG IT. THIS IS BECAUSE IT IS FARTHER N
THAN OTHER MODELS WITH A 700 HPA SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
VORTICITY MAXIMA AS THEY TRANSIT THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST SUNDAY
NIGHT-MONDAY. THE 00Z CMC TAKES THE FRONT ABOUT AS FAR S AS THE
NON 00Z-ECMWF MODELS...HOWEVER IT HAS A STRONGER WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE RIDE ALONG THE FRONT THAN OTHER GUIDANCE. AS A RESULT
DID NOT INCLUDE THE 00Z ECMWF OR CMC-GLOBAL IN THE BLEND OF
GUIDANCE SUNDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER DID USE THE 12Z/29 ECMWF
AS IT WAS MORE CONSISTENT WITH REMAINDER OF 00Z MODEL SUITE.

AS A RESULT...EXPECT PERIODS OF RAIN TO DEVELOP FROM SW TO NE
SUNDAY MORNING...WITH THE RAIN LIKELY CONTINUING SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING...BEFORE TAPERING OFF MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE EXITS TO THE NE. ALSO WITH THE REGION
PROGGED TO HAVE SHOWALTERS OF -2 TO 2 FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AND TO BE IN A COUPLED UPPER JET STRUCTURE ON MONDAY...HAVE
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR MONDAY. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD
BE OF AN ELEVATED NATURE.

FOR HIGHS SUNDAY...A BLEND OF MAV/MET/12Z ECS GUIDANCE...00Z NAM
AND 12Z ECMWF 2-METER TEMPERATURES...AND A MIX DOWN FROM 975-950
HPA WAS USED PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 10-15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FOR LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT A BLEND OF 12Z ECS/00Z
MET/MAV GUIDANCE WITH 12Z ECMWF AND 00Z NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES
WAS USED...WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND NORMAL. HIGHS MONDAY
SHOULD BE AROUND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...CONSISTENT WITH A
BLEND OF MIX DOWN FROM 975-900 HPA...00Z NAM AND 12Z ECMWF 2-METER
TEMPERATURES...AND A MIXTURE OF 00Z MAV/MET AND 12Z ECS GUIDANCE.

WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN MONDAY NIGHT...SO IT SHOULD BE DRY. LOWS
WERE BASED ON A BLEND OF 00Z NAM AND 12Z ECMWF 2-METER
TEMPERATURES WITH A BLEND OF MEX/MEN/EKD/12Z ECE/ECM GUIDANCE.
LOWS SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IT SHOULD BE DRY ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW LEVELS SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENTLY DRY TO PRECLUDE PRECIPITATION EVEN WITH A 700-500 HPA
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE REGION.

THERE REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF VARIANCE IN MODEL SOLUTIONS TUESDAY
NIGHT-FRIDAY. IN A SWITCH FROM THE 12Z RUNS...THE 00Z ECMWF NOW
ENDS UP WITH THE CUTOFF LOW TO THE N BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND
THE GFS HAS IT TO OUR S. THE REASONS DEAL WITH DIFFERENCES IN
HANDLING A CUTOFF LOW OVER HUDSON BAY AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY
TRACKING DOWN ITS SW FLANK.

GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY LIMITED POPS TUESDAY NIGHT TO SLIGHT
CHANCE...THEN POPS WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY (THIS IS THEN GENERAL TIME
FRAME WHEN REGARDLESS OF SOLUTION THE MODELS INDICATED THE BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IN ALL SOLUTIONS) TO LOW END
CHANCE...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

THIS IS A VERY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM
PERIOD DUE TO THE LARGE MODEL SPREAD AND RUN TO RUN
VARIABILITY. THIS UNCERTAINTY IS AMPLIFIED BY THE MODELS
FORECASTING CUTOFF LOWS...WHICH IS AN ITEM THEY ALL HAVE A LOWER
THAN AVERAGE SKILL AT FORECASTING.

FOR TEMPERATURES TUESDAY-FRIDAY THE SUPER BLEND WAS USED. FOR NOW
FORECASTING BELOW NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL IN THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SEA BREEZE IS ALREADY THROUGH KBDR. FOR MOST OTHER
TERMINALS...WINDS WILL RANGE FROM N TO NE...AND WILL TURN S BEHIND
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY
8-12 KT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 15Z SUN THROUGH WED...
.SUN-MON...RAIN WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS. ESE/E WIND GUSTS OF 20
TO 25 KT POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFT FOR CITY/COASTAL TERMINALS.
.TUE...VFR.
.WED...CHANCE OF RAIN WITH WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS.

&&

.MARINE...
OCEAN SEAS CONTINUE TO HOVER AROUND 5 FEET. HAVE EXTENDED THE
SCA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...22Z. NON OCEAN WATERS REMAIN
TRANQUIL...LIGHT WINDS AND 1 FT OR LESS SEAS/WAVES.

A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS WILL KEEP WINDS TO 10
KT OR LESS OVER THE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS
THEN CONTINUE FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY MORNING.
WINDS AND SEAS THEN PICK UP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STORM.

IT LOOKS LIKE SCA WILL BE NEEDED FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AT LEAST ON
THE OCEAN...AND MAYBE FOR THE SOUND. A BETTER CHANCE FOR 25KT
GUSTS ON THE SOUND AND PERHAPS FOR THE HARBOR AND BAYS ARRIVES
SUNDAY NIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS OTHERWISE ON THE OCEAN THROUGH AT
LEAST MONDAY...AND POSSIBLY INTO A PORTION OF MONDAY NIGHT AS SEAS
SLOWLY SUBSIDE.

A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT THEN MAINTAINS SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL
WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
IT SHOULD BE DRY THROUGH AT LEAST THIS EVENING.

FROM AROUND 3/4-1 INCH OF RAIN IS FORECAST FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY EVENING...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. AT THIS
TIME THERE IS A LOW RISK OF PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS FOR
AREAS EXPERIENCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL DURING
THE MIDDLE TO LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/PW
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...JC/MALOIT/PW
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT




000
FXUS61 KOKX 301554
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1154 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A
WARM FRONT APPROACHES SUNDAY...STALLING OUT TO THE SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG
IT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY SLIDES
OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT. A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN BRING
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY MORNING CLOUDS HAVE ERODED AS RIDGE BUILDS. HOWEVER...SC
CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED AND GENERALLY EXPECT SCT TO BKN CLOUDS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY.

TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NEAR THE
COAST...AND MID 60S INTERIOR. THE SEABREEZE SHOULD ALLOW FOR WIND
GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH AT COASTAL AREAS AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE AXIS OF THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE SLIDES TO THE EAST
TONIGHT...HOW FAST IT DOES SO WILL DETERMINE HOW FAST RAIN MOVES
INTO THE TRI-STATE AFTER MIDNIGHT. MINDFUL THAT THE GFS HAS A BIAS
OF BEING TO PROGRESSIVE WITH DEEP LAYERED RIDGING MOVING OFF THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD...LEANED TOWARDS SLOWER ECMWF/NAM. KEPT FAR
EASTERN AREAS DRY...AND LIMITED LIKELY POPS TO FAR WESTERN ZONES
LATE TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WERE BASED ON A BLEND OF MET/ECS/MAV
GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES...AND SHOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

00Z ECMWF IS THE ONLY MODEL WHICH DOES NOT DEVELOP A SECONDARY LOW
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN TRACK THE LOW S
OF LONG ISLAND MONDAY. THE CMC DOES THIS...IT JUST TRACKS THE LOW
TO THE S OF LONG ISLAND MUCH FASTER THAN OTHER GUIDANCE. THE 00Z
ECMWF IS ALSO THE ONLY MODEL TO NOT HAVE A FRONT MOVE FAR ENOUGH S
MONDAY NIGHT TO PRECLUDE RAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE RIDE ALONG IT. THIS IS BECAUSE IT IS FARTHER N
THAN OTHER MODELS WITH A 700 HPA SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
VORTICITY MAXIMA AS THEY TRANSIT THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST SUNDAY
NIGHT-MONDAY. THE 00Z CMC TAKES THE FRONT ABOUT AS FAR S AS THE
NON 00Z-ECMWF MODELS...HOWEVER IT HAS A STRONGER WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE RIDE ALONG THE FRONT THAN OTHER GUIDANCE. AS A RESULT
DID NOT INCLUDE THE 00Z ECMWF OR CMC-GLOBAL IN THE BLEND OF
GUIDANCE SUNDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER DID USE THE 12Z/29 ECMWF
AS IT WAS MORE CONSISTENT WITH REMAINDER OF 00Z MODEL SUITE.

AS A RESULT...EXPECT PERIODS OF RAIN TO DEVELOP FROM SW TO NE
SUNDAY MORNING...WITH THE RAIN LIKELY CONTINUING SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING...BEFORE TAPERING OFF MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE EXITS TO THE NE. ALSO WITH THE REGION
PROGGED TO HAVE SHOWALTERS OF -2 TO 2 FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AND TO BE IN A COUPLED UPPER JET STRUCTURE ON MONDAY...HAVE
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR MONDAY. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD
BE OF AN ELEVATED NATURE.

FOR HIGHS SUNDAY...A BLEND OF MAV/MET/12Z ECS GUIDANCE...00Z NAM
AND 12Z ECMWF 2-METER TEMPERATURES...AND A MIX DOWN FROM 975-950
HPA WAS USED PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 10-15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FOR LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT A BLEND OF 12Z ECS/00Z
MET/MAV GUIDANCE WITH 12Z ECMWF AND 00Z NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES
WAS USED...WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND NORMAL. HIGHS MONDAY
SHOULD BE AROUND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...CONSISTENT WITH A
BLEND OF MIX DOWN FROM 975-900 HPA...00Z NAM AND 12Z ECMWF 2-METER
TEMPERATURES...AND A MIXTURE OF 00Z MAV/MET AND 12Z ECS GUIDANCE.

WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN MONDAY NIGHT...SO IT SHOULD BE DRY. LOWS
WERE BASED ON A BLEND OF 00Z NAM AND 12Z ECMWF 2-METER
TEMPERATURES WITH A BLEND OF MEX/MEN/EKD/12Z ECE/ECM GUIDANCE.
LOWS SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IT SHOULD BE DRY ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW LEVELS SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENTLY DRY TO PRECLUDE PRECIPITATION EVEN WITH A 700-500 HPA
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE REGION.

THERE REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF VARIANCE IN MODEL SOLUTIONS TUESDAY
NIGHT-FRIDAY. IN A SWITCH FROM THE 12Z RUNS...THE 00Z ECMWF NOW
ENDS UP WITH THE CUTOFF LOW TO THE N BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND
THE GFS HAS IT TO OUR S. THE REASONS DEAL WITH DIFFERENCES IN
HANDLING A CUTOFF LOW OVER HUDSON BAY AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY
TRACKING DOWN ITS SW FLANK.

GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY LIMITED POPS TUESDAY NIGHT TO SLIGHT
CHANCE...THEN POPS WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY (THIS IS THEN GENERAL TIME
FRAME WHEN REGARDLESS OF SOLUTION THE MODELS INDICATED THE BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IN ALL SOLUTIONS) TO LOW END
CHANCE...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

THIS IS A VERY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM
PERIOD DUE TO THE LARGE MODEL SPREAD AND RUN TO RUN
VARIABILITY. THIS UNCERTAINTY IS AMPLIFIED BY THE MODELS
FORECASTING CUTOFF LOWS...WHICH IS AN ITEM THEY ALL HAVE A LOWER
THAN AVERAGE SKILL AT FORECASTING.

FOR TEMPERATURES TUESDAY-FRIDAY THE SUPER BLEND WAS USED. FOR NOW
FORECASTING BELOW NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL IN THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SEA BREEZE IS ALREADY THROUGH KBDR. FOR MOST OTHER
TERMINALS...WINDS WILL RANGE FROM N TO NE...AND WILL TURN S BEHIND
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY
8-12 KT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 15Z SUN THROUGH WED...
.SUN-MON...RAIN WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS. ESE/E WIND GUSTS OF 20
TO 25 KT POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFT FOR CITY/COASTAL TERMINALS.
.TUE...VFR.
.WED...CHANCE OF RAIN WITH WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS.

&&

.MARINE...
OCEAN SEAS CONTINUE TO HOVER AROUND 5 FEET. HAVE EXTENDED THE
SCA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...22Z. NON OCEAN WATERS REMAIN
TRANQUIL...LIGHT WINDS AND 1 FT OR LESS SEAS/WAVES.

A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS WILL KEEP WINDS TO 10
KT OR LESS OVER THE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS
THEN CONTINUE FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY MORNING.
WINDS AND SEAS THEN PICK UP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STORM.

IT LOOKS LIKE SCA WILL BE NEEDED FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AT LEAST ON
THE OCEAN...AND MAYBE FOR THE SOUND. A BETTER CHANCE FOR 25KT
GUSTS ON THE SOUND AND PERHAPS FOR THE HARBOR AND BAYS ARRIVES
SUNDAY NIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS OTHERWISE ON THE OCEAN THROUGH AT
LEAST MONDAY...AND POSSIBLY INTO A PORTION OF MONDAY NIGHT AS SEAS
SLOWLY SUBSIDE.

A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT THEN MAINTAINS SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL
WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
IT SHOULD BE DRY THROUGH AT LEAST THIS EVENING.

FROM AROUND 3/4-1 INCH OF RAIN IS FORECAST FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY EVENING...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. AT THIS
TIME THERE IS A LOW RISK OF PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS FOR
AREAS EXPERIENCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL DURING
THE MIDDLE TO LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/PW
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...JC/MALOIT/PW
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT




000
FXUS61 KOKX 301438
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1038 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A
WARM FRONT APPROACHES SUNDAY...STALLING OUT TO THE SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG
IT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY SLIDES
OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT. A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN BRING
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SC CLOUDS ERODING THIS MORNING AS RIDGE BUILDS...ALTHOUGH COULD
SEE SOME OF THESE CLOUDS REDEVELOP AS BOUNDARY LAYER HEATS.

DEEP LAYERED RIDGING BUILDS...WITH ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE KEEPING
THINGS DRY. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY CONDITIONS EXPECTED BASED
ON LATEST TRENDS.

HIGHS TODAY SHOULD BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S. THE SEABREEZE SHOULD ALLOW FOR WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH
AT COASTAL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE AXIS OF THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE SLIDES TO THE EAST
TONIGHT...HOW FAST IT DOES SO WILL DETERMINE HOW FAST RAIN MOVES
INTO THE TRI-STATE AFTER MIDNIGHT. MINDFUL THAT THE GFS HAS A BIAS
OF BEING TO PROGRESSIVE WITH DEEP LAYERED RIDGING MOVING OFF THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD...LEANED TOWARDS SLOWER ECMWF/NAM. KEPT FAR
EASTERN AREAS DRY...AND LIMITED LIKELY POPS TO FAR WESTERN ZONES
LATE TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WERE BASED ON A BLEND OF MET/ECS/MAV
GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES...AND SHOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

00Z ECMWF IS THE ONLY MODEL WHICH DOES NOT DEVELOP A SECONDARY LOW
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN TRACK THE LOW S
OF LONG ISLAND MONDAY. THE CMC DOES THIS...IT JUST TRACKS THE LOW
TO THE S OF LONG ISLAND MUCH FASTER THAN OTHER GUIDANCE. THE 00Z
ECMWF IS ALSO THE ONLY MODEL TO NOT HAVE A FRONT MOVE FAR ENOUGH S
MONDAY NIGHT TO PRECLUDE RAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE RIDE ALONG IT. THIS IS BECAUSE IT IS FARTHER N
THAN OTHER MODELS WITH A 700 HPA SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
VORTICITY MAXIMA AS THEY TRANSIT THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST SUNDAY
NIGHT-MONDAY. THE 00Z CMC TAKES THE FRONT ABOUT AS FAR S AS THE
NON 00Z-ECMWF MODELS...HOWEVER IT HAS A STRONGER WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE RIDE ALONG THE FRONT THAN OTHER GUIDANCE. AS A RESULT
DID NOT INCLUDE THE 00Z ECMWF OR CMC-GLOBAL IN THE BLEND OF
GUIDANCE SUNDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER DID USE THE 12Z/29 ECMWF
AS IT WAS MORE CONSISTENT WITH REMAINDER OF 00Z MODEL SUITE.

AS A RESULT...EXPECT PERIODS OF RAIN TO DEVELOP FROM SW TO NE
SUNDAY MORNING...WITH THE RAIN LIKELY CONTINUING SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING...BEFORE TAPERING OFF MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE EXITS TO THE NE. ALSO WITH THE REGION
PROGGED TO HAVE SHOWALTERS OF -2 TO 2 FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AND TO BE IN A COUPLED UPPER JET STRUCTURE ON MONDAY...HAVE
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR MONDAY. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD
BE OF AN ELEVATED NATURE.

FOR HIGHS SUNDAY...A BLEND OF MAV/MET/12Z ECS GUIDANCE...00Z NAM
AND 12Z ECMWF 2-METER TEMPERATURES...AND A MIX DOWN FROM 975-950
HPA WAS USED PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 10-15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FOR LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT A BLEND OF 12Z ECS/00Z
MET/MAV GUIDANCE WITH 12Z ECMWF AND 00Z NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES
WAS USED...WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND NORMAL. HIGHS MONDAY
SHOULD BE AROUND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...CONSISTENT WITH A
BLEND OF MIX DOWN FROM 975-900 HPA...00Z NAM AND 12Z ECMWF 2-METER
TEMPERATURES...AND A MIXTURE OF 00Z MAV/MET AND 12Z ECS GUIDANCE.

WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN MONDAY NIGHT...SO IT SHOULD BE DRY. LOWS
WERE BASED ON A BLEND OF 00Z NAM AND 12Z ECMWF 2-METER
TEMPERATURES WITH A BLEND OF MEX/MEN/EKD/12Z ECE/ECM GUIDANCE.
LOWS SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IT SHOULD BE DRY ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW LEVELS SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENTLY DRY TO PRECLUDE PRECIPITATION EVEN WITH A 700-500 HPA
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE REGION.

THERE REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF VARIANCE IN MODEL SOLUTIONS TUESDAY
NIGHT-FRIDAY. IN A SWITCH FROM THE 12Z RUNS...THE 00Z ECMWF NOW
ENDS UP WITH THE CUTOFF LOW TO THE N BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND
THE GFS HAS IT TO OUR S. THE REASONS DEAL WITH DIFFERENCES IN
HANDLING A CUTOFF LOW OVER HUDSON BAY AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY
TRACKING DOWN ITS SW FLANK.

GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY LIMITED POPS TUESDAY NIGHT TO SLIGHT
CHANCE...THEN POPS WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY (THIS IS THEN GENERAL TIME
FRAME WHEN REGARDLESS OF SOLUTION THE MODELS INDICATED THE BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IN ALL SOLUTIONS) TO LOW END
CHANCE...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

THIS IS A VERY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM
PERIOD DUE TO THE LARGE MODEL SPREAD AND RUN TO RUN
VARIABILITY. THIS UNCERTAINTY IS AMPLIFIED BY THE MODELS
FORECASTING CUTOFF LOWS...WHICH IS AN ITEM THEY ALL HAVE A LOWER
THAN AVERAGE SKILL AT FORECASTING.

FOR TEMPERATURES TUESDAY-FRIDAY THE SUPER BLEND WAS USED. FOR NOW
FORECASTING BELOW NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL IN THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SEA BREEZE IS ALREADY THROUGH KBDR. FOR MOST OTHER
TERMINALS...WINDS WILL RANGE FROM N TO NE...AND WILL TURN S BEHIND
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY
8-12 KT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 15Z SUN THROUGH WED...
.SUN-MON...RAIN WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS. ESE/E WIND GUSTS OF 20
TO 25 KT POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFT FOR CITY/COASTAL TERMINALS.
.TUE...VFR.
.WED...CHANCE OF RAIN WITH WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS.

&&

.MARINE...
OCEAN SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED SOMEWHAT...BUT STILL HOVER AROUND 5
FEET. WILL MAINTAIN THE SCA FOR NOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL
16Z. NON OCEAN WATERS REMAIN TRANQUIL...LIGHT WINDS AND 1 FT OR
LESS SEAS/WAVES.

A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS WILL KEEP WINDS TO 10
KT OR LESS OVER THE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS
THEN CONTINUE FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY MORNING.
WINDS AND SEAS THEN PICK UP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STORM.

IT LOOKS LIKE SCA WILL BE NEEDED FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AT LEAST ON
THE OCEAN...AND MAYBE FOR THE SOUND. A BETTER CHANCE FOR 25KT
GUSTS ON THE SOUND AND PERHAPS FOR THE HARBOR AND BAYS ARRIVES
SUNDAY NIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS OTHERWISE ON THE OCEAN THROUGH AT
LEAST MONDAY...AND POSSIBLY INTO A PORTION OF MONDAY NIGHT AS SEAS
SLOWLY SUBSIDE.

A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT THEN MAINTAINS SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL
WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
IT SHOULD BE DRY THROUGH AT LEAST THIS EVENING.

FROM AROUND 3/4-1 INCH OF RAIN IS FORECAST FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY EVENING...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. AT THIS
TIME THERE IS A LOW RISK OF PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS FOR
AREAS EXPERIENCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL DURING
THE MIDDLE TO LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY
     FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/PW
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...JC/MALOIT/PW
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 301423
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1023 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON. UNSETTLED
AND COOL WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. A BRIEF DRYING TREND TUESDAY WHICH
MAY LAST INTO WEDNESDAY...THEN MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR LATE
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH SUBSIDENCE. SATELLITE TRENDS
SHOW MORE CLEARING THAN WAS ANTICIPATED. MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOW
MID LEVEL MOISTURE EVEN WHERE SKIES WERE CLEAR THIS MORNING...AND
MORE CLOUDS LINGER TO OUR WEST AND SOUTHWEST. THE FORECAST WILL
HOLD ON TO A FEW CLOUDS BUT OTHERWISE A FINE SUNNY AFTERNOON.

SEA BREEZES TOOK THEIR TIME BUT THE 10 AM OBS SHOW A SOUTH
SOUTHEAST WIND DEVELOPING AT DEER ISLAND AND LOGAN AIRPORT. ALSO
LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS SHOWING ALONG THE MASS EAST COAST. THIS SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON KEEPING COASTAL TEMPS IN THE LOW TO
MID 50S. TEMPS ALOFT AND 10 AM OBSERVED INLAND TEMPS POINT TO
AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 60S...SOME LOW 60S IN THE HILLS AND
ADJACENT TO THE SEA BREEZE ZONE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS
WILL ALLOW CLOUDS TO START MOVING BACK INTO THE AREA AND SKIES WILL
BECOME OVERCAST.  EXPECT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA.

SUNDAY...CHILLY AND WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. LOW
PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES WILL SEND RAIN INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  RAIN WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND CONNECTICUT
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...REACHING THE EAST COAST AROUND NOON. EASTERLY
WINDS AND OVERCAST SKIES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL
FOR THE FIRST OF MAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50.
WITH RAIN AND CLOUDS DELAYED UNTIL THE AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS...TEMPERATURES MAY CLIMB INTO THE MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* PERIODS OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
* DRY AND SEASONABLE TUE...POSSIBLY LASTING INTO WEDNESDAY
* MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE LATE NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW...
AMPLIFIED PATTERN DEVELOPS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS ANOMALOUS MID
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS NORTHERN ROCKIES AND WESTERN CANADA WITH
DOWNSTREAM TROF OVER THE GT LAKES. MODELS IN AGREEMENT ON
AMPLIFICATION OF THIS TROF LATE NEXT WEEK WITH CUTOFF LOW EVENTUALLY
DEVELOPING...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON EVOLUTION AND LOCATION OF THIS
CUTOFF AND SUBSEQUENT SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT SOMEWHERE ALONG THE EAST
COAST WHICH WILL DETERMINE SENSIBLE WEATHER. GENERAL THEME WILL BE A
RETURN TO UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE NEXT WEEK BUT DETAILS ARE VERY
UNCERTAIN.

DETAILS...

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...
OVERRUNNING OF WARM FRONT S OF NEW ENG WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND MODEST
FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL LEAD TO PERIODS OF RAIN SUN NIGHT.  MORE
COMPLEX SCENARIO UNFOLDING MON AS APPROACHING SHORTWAVE LEADS TO A
PRIMARY LOW MOVING TO THE WEST WHILE SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS OVER OR
SOUTH OF NEW ENG. NAM IS OVERDONE WITH HEAVY RAINFALL MON DUE TO ITS
DEPICTION OF A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WHICH SEEMS UNLIKELY. EXPECT
MAINLY LIGHT RAIN TO LINGER INTO MON...THEN TAPERING OFF MON
AFTERNOON AS BEST FORCING LIFTS TO THE NE. TRICKY TEMP FORECAST FOR
MON WHICH WILL DEPEND ON EXACTLY WHERE SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS AS
THERE WILL BE A SURGE OF MILDER AIR TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW. THERE
WILL LIKELY BE A SHARP NORTH TO SOUTH TEMP GRADIENT ACROSS SNE.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...
DRY WEATHER SHOULD RETURN TUE AS THE COLUMN DRIES WITH TEMPS
REBOUNDING TO NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
DRY WEATHER MAY PERSIST INTO WED BUT NOT AS CONFIDENT AS MID LEVEL
TROF WILL BE AMPLIFYING TO THE WEST WITH SFC WAVE LURKING TO THE
SOUTH. LOW CONFIDENCE TEMP FORECAST FOR WED AS GFS INDICATING SW
FLOW AND TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES MILDER THAN ECMWF WHICH HAS EASTERLY
FLOW.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
LOOKS LIKE AN UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH CUTOFF LOW WEST OR SW OF NEW ENG
AND SFC LOW SOMEWHERE NEAR THE EAST COAST. HOWEVER...LOW CONFIDENCE
ON DETAILS AS THERE IS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD AMONG THE DETERMINISTIC
AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REGARDING INTENSITY AND PLACEMENT OF THE SFC
LOW WHICH WILL IMPACT TEMPS AND SENSIBLE WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.  RAIN MOVES INTO W
MA/CT BETWEEN 09-12Z SUNDAY REACHING THE EAST COAST BETWEEN 15-18Z.
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE RAIN.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS IN PERIODS OF RAIN.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR WITH
LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS START TO INCREASE LATE SUNDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES THE WATERS.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

SUNDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EASTERLY WINDS MAY GUST TO 25
KT FOR A TIME WITH BUILDING SEAS. REDUCED VSBYS IN RAIN AND PATCHY
FOG.

MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE ON WINDS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK OF
LOW PRES. ROUGH SEAS...ESPECIALLY EASTERN WATERS. VSBYS REDUCED AT
TIMES IN RAIN AND FOG.

TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LIGHT WINDS BUT LEFTOVER ROUGH SEAS WILL
SLOWLY SUBSIDE.

WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST. LOW PRESSURE TO THE
SOUTH MAY RESULT IN WINDS BEING MORE EASTERLY THAN WHAT IS
CURRENTLY FORECAST.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/RLG
MARINE...WTB/KJC/RLG




000
FXUS61 KOKX 301326
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
926 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A
WARM FRONT APPROACHES SUNDAY...STALLING OUT TO THE SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG
IT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY SLIDES
OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT. A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN BRING
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SC CLOUDS ERODING THIS MORNING AS RIDGE BUILDS...ALTHOUGH COULD
SEE SOME OF THESE CLOUDS REDEVELOP AS BOUNDARY LAYER HEATS.

DEEP LAYERED RIDGING BUILDS...WITH ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE KEEPING
THINGS DRY. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY CONDITIONS EXPECTED BASED
ON LATEST TRENDS.

HIGHS TODAY SHOULD BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S. THE SEABREEZE SHOULD ALLOW FOR WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH
AT COASTAL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE AXIS OF THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE SLIDES TO THE EAST
TONIGHT...HOW FAST IT DOES SO WILL DETERMINE HOW FAST RAIN MOVES
INTO THE TRI-STATE AFTER MIDNIGHT. MINDFUL THAT THE GFS HAS A BIAS
OF BEING TO PROGRESSIVE WITH DEEP LAYERED RIDGING MOVING OFF THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD...LEANED TOWARDS SLOWER ECMWF/NAM. KEPT FAR
EASTERN AREAS DRY...AND LIMITED LIKELY POPS TO FAR WESTERN ZONES
LATE TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WERE BASED ON A BLEND OF MET/ECS/MAV
GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES...AND SHOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

00Z ECMWF IS THE ONLY MODEL WHICH DOES NOT DEVELOP A SECONDARY LOW
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN TRACK THE LOW S
OF LONG ISLAND MONDAY. THE CMC DOES THIS...IT JUST TRACKS THE LOW
TO THE S OF LONG ISLAND MUCH FASTER THAN OTHER GUIDANCE. THE 00Z
ECMWF IS ALSO THE ONLY MODEL TO NOT HAVE A FRONT MOVE FAR ENOUGH S
MONDAY NIGHT TO PRECLUDE RAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE RIDE ALONG IT. THIS IS BECAUSE IT IS FARTHER N
THAN OTHER MODELS WITH A 700 HPA SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
VORTICITY MAXIMA AS THEY TRANSIT THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST SUNDAY
NIGHT-MONDAY. THE 00Z CMC TAKES THE FRONT ABOUT AS FAR S AS THE
NON 00Z-ECMWF MODELS...HOWEVER IT HAS A STRONGER WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE RIDE ALONG THE FRONT THAN OTHER GUIDANCE. AS A RESULT
DID NOT INCLUDE THE 00Z ECMWF OR CMC-GLOBAL IN THE BLEND OF
GUIDANCE SUNDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER DID USE THE 12Z/29 ECMWF
AS IT WAS MORE CONSISTENT WITH REMAINDER OF 00Z MODEL SUITE.

AS A RESULT...EXPECT PERIODS OF RAIN TO DEVELOP FROM SW TO NE
SUNDAY MORNING...WITH THE RAIN LIKELY CONTINUING SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING...BEFORE TAPERING OFF MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE EXITS TO THE NE. ALSO WITH THE REGION
PROGGED TO HAVE SHOWALTERS OF -2 TO 2 FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AND TO BE IN A COUPLED UPPER JET STRUCTURE ON MONDAY...HAVE
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR MONDAY. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD
BE OF AN ELEVATED NATURE.

FOR HIGHS SUNDAY...A BLEND OF MAV/MET/12Z ECS GUIDANCE...00Z NAM
AND 12Z ECMWF 2-METER TEMPERATURES...AND A MIX DOWN FROM 975-950
HPA WAS USED PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 10-15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FOR LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT A BLEND OF 12Z ECS/00Z
MET/MAV GUIDANCE WITH 12Z ECMWF AND 00Z NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES
WAS USED...WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND NORMAL. HIGHS MONDAY
SHOULD BE AROUND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...CONSISTENT WITH A
BLEND OF MIX DOWN FROM 975-900 HPA...00Z NAM AND 12Z ECMWF 2-METER
TEMPERATURES...AND A MIXTURE OF 00Z MAV/MET AND 12Z ECS GUIDANCE.

WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN MONDAY NIGHT...SO IT SHOULD BE DRY. LOWS
WERE BASED ON A BLEND OF 00Z NAM AND 12Z ECMWF 2-METER
TEMPERATURES WITH A BLEND OF MEX/MEN/EKD/12Z ECE/ECM GUIDANCE.
LOWS SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IT SHOULD BE DRY ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW LEVELS SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENTLY DRY TO PRECLUDE PRECIPITATION EVEN WITH A 700-500 HPA
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE REGION.

THERE REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF VARIANCE IN MODEL SOLUTIONS TUESDAY
NIGHT-FRIDAY. IN A SWITCH FROM THE 12Z RUNS...THE 00Z ECMWF NOW
ENDS UP WITH THE CUTOFF LOW TO THE N BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND
THE GFS HAS IT TO OUR S. THE REASONS DEAL WITH DIFFERENCES IN
HANDLING A CUTOFF LOW OVER HUDSON BAY AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY
TRACKING DOWN ITS SW FLANK.

GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY LIMITED POPS TUESDAY NIGHT TO SLIGHT
CHANCE...THEN POPS WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY (THIS IS THEN GENERAL TIME
FRAME WHEN REGARDLESS OF SOLUTION THE MODELS INDICATED THE BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IN ALL SOLUTIONS) TO LOW END
CHANCE...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

THIS IS A VERY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM
PERIOD DUE TO THE LARGE MODEL SPREAD AND RUN TO RUN
VARIABILITY. THIS UNCERTAINTY IS AMPLIFIED BY THE MODELS
FORECASTING CUTOFF LOWS...WHICH IS AN ITEM THEY ALL HAVE A LOWER
THAN AVERAGE SKILL AT FORECASTING.

FOR TEMPERATURES TUESDAY-FRIDAY THE SUPER BLEND WAS USED. FOR NOW
FORECASTING BELOW NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL IN THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS THROUGH TODAY.

VFR. NE WINDS UNDER 10KT BCMG SE THIS MORNING. SEA BREEZES THIS
AFTN WITH SE-S WINDS AROUND 10KT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUN THROUGH WED...
.SUN-MON...RAIN WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS. ESE/E WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO
25 KT POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFT FOR CITY/COASTAL TERMINALS.
.TUE...VFR.
.WED...CHANCE OF RAIN WITH WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS.

&&

.MARINE...
OCEAN SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED SOMEWHAT...BUT STILL HOVER AROUND 5
FEET. WILL MAINTAIN THE SCA FOR NOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL
16Z. NON OCEAN WATERS REMAIN TRANQUIL...LIGHT WINDS AND 1 FT OR
LESS SEAS/WAVES.

A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS WILL KEEP WINDS TO 10
KT OR LESS OVER THE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS
THEN CONTINUE FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY MORNING.
WINDS AND SEAS THEN PICK UP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STORM.

IT LOOKS LIKE SCA WILL BE NEEDED FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AT LEAST ON
THE OCEAN...AND MAYBE FOR THE SOUND. A BETTER CHANCE FOR 25KT
GUSTS ON THE SOUND AND PERHAPS FOR THE HARBOR AND BAYS ARRIVES
SUNDAY NIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS OTHERWISE ON THE OCEAN THROUGH AT
LEAST MONDAY...AND POSSIBLY INTO A PORTION OF MONDAY NIGHT AS SEAS
SLOWLY SUBSIDE.

A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT THEN MAINTAINS SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL
WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
IT SHOULD BE DRY THROUGH AT LEAST THIS EVENING.

FROM AROUND 3/4-1 INCH OF RAIN IS FORECAST FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY EVENING...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. AT THIS
TIME THERE IS A LOW RISK OF PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS FOR
AREAS EXPERIENCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL DURING
THE MIDDLE TO LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY
     FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/PW
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JC/MALOIT/PW
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT




000
FXUS61 KALY 301320
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
920 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
OVERSPREADING THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE RAIN
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND
CROSSES THE REGION. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER THEN EXPECTED FOR
THE REST WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 915 AM EDT...HIGH PRESSURE WAS ANCHORED IN THE GULF OF MAINE
WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING NORTH FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK. IT WAS A FAIRLY MILD
MORNING FOR LATE APRIL WITH TEMPERATURES ALREADY IN THE MID 40S TO
LOWER 50S.

TODAY WILL BE THE DRY AND WARMER DAY OF THE WEEKEND. RIDGING WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TODAY BETWEEN SHORT
WAVES. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST WITH HIGHS FROM THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S. THE MID 60S ARE EXPECTED IN THE HUDSON AND
MOHAWK VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
WET AND VERY COOL START TO MAY.

A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING WITH THE RAIN CONTINUING INTO MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION.

THE RIDGING WILL SHIFT EAST AND FLATTEN AS SHORT WAVES APPROACH
AND A TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE SURFACE RIDGING
WILL WEAKEN AND RETREAT NORTHWARD. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ORIGINATING FROM OVER THE PLAINS WILL APPROACH WITH OVERRUNNING
PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADING THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS THE
ATMOSPHERE SATURATES. A LULL IN THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF STEADY RAINFALL OCCURS ACROSS
THE AREA MONDAY MAINLY IN THE MORNING.

GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THE SYSTEM`S WARM FRONT SHOULD NOT LIFT
NORTHWARD INTO THE LOCAL AREA BUT WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH.
HOWEVER THERE ARE DIFFERENCE IN THE GUIDANCE IF SECONDARY
DEVELOPMENT OCCURS NEAR LONG ISLAND/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND MONDAY
IN RESPONSE TO ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY APPROACHING AND MOVING
OVER THE REGION. EITHER WAY IT WILL BE WET AND COOL AS THE MAIN
LOW PASSES OVER THE REGION MONDAY WITH ENERGY SHIFTING TO THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST AND HEADING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT.

HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE CHILLY RUNNING AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER ON MONDAY BUT STILL COOL WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS DRY...AND THEN BECOMES INCREASINGLY WET
AND UNSETTLED WITH A MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH EAST OF THE MS RIVER
VALLEY...AND A CUTOFF LOW IMPACTING THE REGION TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WEEK.

TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION AND THE SOUTHEAST...AS A SFC HIGH BUILDS IN OVER NY AND NEW
ENGLAND. THIS ANTICYCLONE WILL BRING A BRIEF WINDOW OF FAIR AND
TRANQUIL WEATHER BASED ON THE LATEST ECMWF/GFS/WPC GUIDANCE.  THE
CANADIAN GGEM IS AN OUTLIER SOLUTION WITH A WAVE MOVING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY PASSING CLOSE TO LONG ISLAND FOR MORE CLOUDS AND SOME
SHOWERS. FAIR AND DRY WX IS EXPECTED WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS...WITH
HIGHS IN THE U50S TO L60S OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U60S IN THE
VALLEY AREAS.

TUE NIGHT INTO WED...A DIGGING NRN STREAM H500 TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
S/SE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...ATTEMPTING TO PHASE WITH A SRN
STREAM UPPER LOW NEAR THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. SOME CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NRN STREAM TROUGH...AND A SFC COLD FRONT.
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY WITH THE WEAK WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.  LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO M40S WITH SOME U30S
OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND SRN GREENS.  THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
VARIES SOME ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE BROAD H500 UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
ERN CONUS WED...WHICH IS DELAYING THE ONSET OF SHOWERS.  THERE IS
ENOUGH SYNOPTIC FORCING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND THE NRN STREAM
H500 TROUGH FOR AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY.  HIGHS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TUE.

WED NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THE LONGWAVE TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY
TILTED WED NIGHT INTO THU FOR A COASTAL LOW TO FORM NEAR THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION.  THE ENSEMBLES AND MEDIUM RANGE DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE INDICATE DECENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF AND WRN
ATLANTIC FOR SCT SHOWERS TO BREAK OUT ESPECIALLY FROM THE MOHAWK
VALLEY SOUTH AND EAST WED NIGHT...AND THEN OVER THE ENTIRE REGION BY
THU.  POPS WERE HELD IN THE HIGH CHC RANGE...BUT MAY NEED TO BE
RAISED TO LIKELY IN THE NEAR FUTURE.  A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN IS
LIKELY THU-THU NIGHT WITH STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT...AND DIFFERENTIAL
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION YIELDING PERIODS OF RAIN.  THE
GFS/ECMWF/ENSEMBLES VARY A BIT IN THE EXACT LOCATION...BUT LATE THU
INTO THU NIGHT THE H500 LOW CUTS OFF OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...OR AS FAR NORTH AS THE PA/NY BORDER.  SCT SHOWERS LOOK TO
CONTINUE THU NIGHT INTO FRI.  THE CUTOFF LOOKS TO HANG AROUND INTO
THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. SHOWERY AND COOL WEATHER WILL
PERSIST...AS THIS PATTERN RESEMBLES MORE APRIL THAN MAY.  LOWS WILL
BE IN THE U30S TO M40S...WITH HIGHS IN THE M50S TO U60S OVER THE
FCST AREA TO CLOSE THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BACK IN LATE THIS MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST.

CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY VFR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CIGS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE 3.5-7 KFT AGL RANGE THIS MORNING BEFORE SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC ANTICYCLONE BUILDS IN.  CIGS WILL BE SCT-BKN
IN THE 3.5-6 KFT AGL RANGE WITH SCT-BKN CIRRUS. THE CLOUDS WILL
THICKEN AND LOWER A BIT TOWARDS 22Z/SAT TO 01Z/SUN AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. THE BEST CHC OF SOME LIGHT RAIN OR
SHOWERS REACHING ANY TAF SITE BEFORE 12Z/SUN WILL BE KPOU...AND A
VCSH GROUP WAS USED STARTED AT 09Z/01. CIGS WILL GENERALLY LOWER
TO 3.5-6 KFT AGL AFTER 05Z/SUN.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 3-7 KTS THIS
MORNING.  THEY WILL BE FROM THE SW TO W AT 3-6 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AT
KPOU/KPSF....AND E/NE AT KGFL/KALB.  THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
OVERSPREADING THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE RAIN
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND
CROSSES THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ARE
FORECAST. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REST
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN 30S
ACROSS THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT...WITH VALUES OTHERWISE MAINLY IN THE 40S. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT TODAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

DRY WEATHER TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
OVERSPREADING THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE RAIN
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND
CROSSES THE REGION. QPF AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ARE FORECAST. THIS
RAINFALL WILL BE BENEFICIAL DUE TO DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS FOR
THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REST WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/11
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 301320
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
920 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
OVERSPREADING THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE RAIN
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND
CROSSES THE REGION. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER THEN EXPECTED FOR
THE REST WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 915 AM EDT...HIGH PRESSURE WAS ANCHORED IN THE GULF OF MAINE
WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING NORTH FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK. IT WAS A FAIRLY MILD
MORNING FOR LATE APRIL WITH TEMPERATURES ALREADY IN THE MID 40S TO
LOWER 50S.

TODAY WILL BE THE DRY AND WARMER DAY OF THE WEEKEND. RIDGING WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TODAY BETWEEN SHORT
WAVES. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST WITH HIGHS FROM THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S. THE MID 60S ARE EXPECTED IN THE HUDSON AND
MOHAWK VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
WET AND VERY COOL START TO MAY.

A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING WITH THE RAIN CONTINUING INTO MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION.

THE RIDGING WILL SHIFT EAST AND FLATTEN AS SHORT WAVES APPROACH
AND A TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE SURFACE RIDGING
WILL WEAKEN AND RETREAT NORTHWARD. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ORIGINATING FROM OVER THE PLAINS WILL APPROACH WITH OVERRUNNING
PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADING THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS THE
ATMOSPHERE SATURATES. A LULL IN THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF STEADY RAINFALL OCCURS ACROSS
THE AREA MONDAY MAINLY IN THE MORNING.

GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THE SYSTEM`S WARM FRONT SHOULD NOT LIFT
NORTHWARD INTO THE LOCAL AREA BUT WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH.
HOWEVER THERE ARE DIFFERENCE IN THE GUIDANCE IF SECONDARY
DEVELOPMENT OCCURS NEAR LONG ISLAND/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND MONDAY
IN RESPONSE TO ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY APPROACHING AND MOVING
OVER THE REGION. EITHER WAY IT WILL BE WET AND COOL AS THE MAIN
LOW PASSES OVER THE REGION MONDAY WITH ENERGY SHIFTING TO THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST AND HEADING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT.

HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE CHILLY RUNNING AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER ON MONDAY BUT STILL COOL WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS DRY...AND THEN BECOMES INCREASINGLY WET
AND UNSETTLED WITH A MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH EAST OF THE MS RIVER
VALLEY...AND A CUTOFF LOW IMPACTING THE REGION TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WEEK.

TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION AND THE SOUTHEAST...AS A SFC HIGH BUILDS IN OVER NY AND NEW
ENGLAND. THIS ANTICYCLONE WILL BRING A BRIEF WINDOW OF FAIR AND
TRANQUIL WEATHER BASED ON THE LATEST ECMWF/GFS/WPC GUIDANCE.  THE
CANADIAN GGEM IS AN OUTLIER SOLUTION WITH A WAVE MOVING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY PASSING CLOSE TO LONG ISLAND FOR MORE CLOUDS AND SOME
SHOWERS. FAIR AND DRY WX IS EXPECTED WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS...WITH
HIGHS IN THE U50S TO L60S OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U60S IN THE
VALLEY AREAS.

TUE NIGHT INTO WED...A DIGGING NRN STREAM H500 TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
S/SE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...ATTEMPTING TO PHASE WITH A SRN
STREAM UPPER LOW NEAR THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. SOME CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NRN STREAM TROUGH...AND A SFC COLD FRONT.
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY WITH THE WEAK WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.  LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO M40S WITH SOME U30S
OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND SRN GREENS.  THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
VARIES SOME ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE BROAD H500 UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
ERN CONUS WED...WHICH IS DELAYING THE ONSET OF SHOWERS.  THERE IS
ENOUGH SYNOPTIC FORCING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND THE NRN STREAM
H500 TROUGH FOR AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY.  HIGHS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TUE.

WED NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THE LONGWAVE TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY
TILTED WED NIGHT INTO THU FOR A COASTAL LOW TO FORM NEAR THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION.  THE ENSEMBLES AND MEDIUM RANGE DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE INDICATE DECENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF AND WRN
ATLANTIC FOR SCT SHOWERS TO BREAK OUT ESPECIALLY FROM THE MOHAWK
VALLEY SOUTH AND EAST WED NIGHT...AND THEN OVER THE ENTIRE REGION BY
THU.  POPS WERE HELD IN THE HIGH CHC RANGE...BUT MAY NEED TO BE
RAISED TO LIKELY IN THE NEAR FUTURE.  A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN IS
LIKELY THU-THU NIGHT WITH STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT...AND DIFFERENTIAL
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION YIELDING PERIODS OF RAIN.  THE
GFS/ECMWF/ENSEMBLES VARY A BIT IN THE EXACT LOCATION...BUT LATE THU
INTO THU NIGHT THE H500 LOW CUTS OFF OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...OR AS FAR NORTH AS THE PA/NY BORDER.  SCT SHOWERS LOOK TO
CONTINUE THU NIGHT INTO FRI.  THE CUTOFF LOOKS TO HANG AROUND INTO
THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. SHOWERY AND COOL WEATHER WILL
PERSIST...AS THIS PATTERN RESEMBLES MORE APRIL THAN MAY.  LOWS WILL
BE IN THE U30S TO M40S...WITH HIGHS IN THE M50S TO U60S OVER THE
FCST AREA TO CLOSE THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BACK IN LATE THIS MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST.

CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY VFR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CIGS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE 3.5-7 KFT AGL RANGE THIS MORNING BEFORE SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC ANTICYCLONE BUILDS IN.  CIGS WILL BE SCT-BKN
IN THE 3.5-6 KFT AGL RANGE WITH SCT-BKN CIRRUS. THE CLOUDS WILL
THICKEN AND LOWER A BIT TOWARDS 22Z/SAT TO 01Z/SUN AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. THE BEST CHC OF SOME LIGHT RAIN OR
SHOWERS REACHING ANY TAF SITE BEFORE 12Z/SUN WILL BE KPOU...AND A
VCSH GROUP WAS USED STARTED AT 09Z/01. CIGS WILL GENERALLY LOWER
TO 3.5-6 KFT AGL AFTER 05Z/SUN.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 3-7 KTS THIS
MORNING.  THEY WILL BE FROM THE SW TO W AT 3-6 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AT
KPOU/KPSF....AND E/NE AT KGFL/KALB.  THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
OVERSPREADING THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE RAIN
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND
CROSSES THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ARE
FORECAST. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REST
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN 30S
ACROSS THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT...WITH VALUES OTHERWISE MAINLY IN THE 40S. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT TODAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

DRY WEATHER TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
OVERSPREADING THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE RAIN
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND
CROSSES THE REGION. QPF AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ARE FORECAST. THIS
RAINFALL WILL BE BENEFICIAL DUE TO DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS FOR
THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REST WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/11
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA




000
FXUS61 KOKX 301131
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
731 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A
WARM FRONT APPROACHES SUNDAY...STALLING OUT TO THE SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG
IT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY SLIDES
OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT. A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN BRING
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST
TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON
TRACK.

DEEP LAYERED RIDGING BUILDS IN TODAY...WITH ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE
KEEPING THINGS DRY. HOWEVER...IT LOOKS LIKE SOME MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN OVER TOP OF THE RIDGE...SO ONLY GOING FOR
PARTLY TO AT BEST MOSTLY SUNNY SKY CONDITIONS.

HIGHS TODAY SHOULD BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...CONSISTENT
WITH A BLEND OF MAV/ECS/MET GUIDANCE...NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES
AND A MIX DOWN FROM 900-850 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. THE
SEABREEZE SHOULD ALLOW FOR WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH AT COASTAL
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE AXIS OF THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE SLIDES TO THE EAST
TONIGHT...HOW FAST IT DOES SO WILL DETERMINE HOW FAST RAIN MOVES
INTO THE TRI-STATE AFTER MIDNIGHT. MINDFUL THAT THE GFS HAS A BIAS
OF BEING TO PROGRESSIVE WITH DEEP LAYERED RIDGING MOVING OFF THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD...LEANED TOWARDS SLOWER ECMWF/NAM. KEPT FAR
EASTERN AREAS DRY...AND LIMITED LIKELY POPS TO FAR WESTERN ZONES
LATE TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WERE BASED ON A BLEND OF MET/ECS/MAV
GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES...AND SHOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

00Z ECMWF IS THE ONLY MODEL WHICH DOES NOT DEVELOP A SECONDARY LOW
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN TRACK THE LOW S
OF LONG ISLAND MONDAY. THE CMC DOES THIS...IT JUST TRACKS THE LOW
TO THE S OF LONG ISLAND MUCH FASTER THAN OTHER GUIDANCE. THE 00Z
ECMWF IS ALSO THE ONLY MODEL TO NOT HAVE A FRONT MOVE FAR ENOUGH S
MONDAY NIGHT TO PRECLUDE RAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE RIDE ALONG IT. THIS IS BECAUSE IT IS FARTHER N
THAN OTHER MODELS WITH A 700 HPA SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
VORTICITY MAXIMA AS THEY TRANSIT THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST SUNDAY
NIGHT-MONDAY. THE 00Z CMC TAKES THE FRONT ABOUT AS FAR S AS THE
NON 00Z-ECMWF MODELS...HOWEVER IT HAS A STRONGER WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE RIDE ALONG THE FRONT THAN OTHER GUIDANCE. AS A RESULT
DID NOT INCLUDE THE 00Z ECMWF OR CMC-GLOBAL IN THE BLEND OF
GUIDANCE SUNDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER DID USE THE 12Z/29 ECMWF
AS IT WAS MORE CONSISTENT WITH REMAINDER OF 00Z MODEL SUITE.

AS A RESULT...EXPECT PERIODS OF RAIN TO DEVELOP FROM SW TO NE
SUNDAY MORNING...WITH THE RAIN LIKELY CONTINUING SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING...BEFORE TAPERING OFF MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE EXITS TO THE NE. ALSO WITH THE REGION
PROGGED TO HAVE SHOWALTERS OF -2 TO 2 FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AND TO BE IN A COUPLED UPPER JET STRUCTURE ON MONDAY...HAVE
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR MONDAY. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD
BE OF AN ELEVATED NATURE.

FOR HIGHS SUNDAY...A BLEND OF MAV/MET/12Z ECS GUIDANCE...00Z NAM
AND 12Z ECMWF 2-METER TEMPERATURES...AND A MIX DOWN FROM 975-950
HPA WAS USED PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 10-15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FOR LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT A BLEND OF 12Z ECS/00Z
MET/MAV GUIDANCE WITH 12Z ECMWF AND 00Z NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES
WAS USED...WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND NORMAL. HIGHS MONDAY
SHOULD BE AROUND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...CONSISTENT WITH A
BLEND OF MIX DOWN FROM 975-900 HPA...00Z NAM AND 12Z ECMWF 2-METER
TEMPERATURES...AND A MIXTURE OF 00Z MAV/MET AND 12Z ECS GUIDANCE.

WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN MONDAY NIGHT...SO IT SHOULD BE DRY. LOWS
WERE BASED ON A BLEND OF 00Z NAM AND 12Z ECMWF 2-METER
TEMPERATURES WITH A BLEND OF MEX/MEN/EKD/12Z ECE/ECM GUIDANCE.
LOWS SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IT SHOULD BE DRY ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW LEVELS SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENTLY DRY TO PRECLUDE PRECIPITATION EVEN WITH A 700-500 HPA
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE REGION.

THERE REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF VARIANCE IN MODEL SOLUTIONS TUESDAY
NIGHT-FRIDAY. IN A SWITCH FROM THE 12Z RUNS...THE 00Z ECMWF NOW
ENDS UP WITH THE CUTOFF LOW TO THE N BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND
THE GFS HAS IT TO OUR S. THE REASONS DEAL WITH DIFFERENCES IN
HANDLING A CUTOFF LOW OVER HUDSON BAY AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY
TRACKING DOWN ITS SW FLANK.

GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY LIMITED POPS TUESDAY NIGHT TO SLIGHT
CHANCE...THEN POPS WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY (THIS IS THEN GENERAL TIME
FRAME WHEN REGARDLESS OF SOLUTION THE MODELS INDICATED THE BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IN ALL SOLUTIONS) TO LOW END
CHANCE...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

THIS IS A VERY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM
PERIOD DUE TO THE LARGE MODEL SPREAD AND RUN TO RUN
VARIABILITY. THIS UNCERTAINTY IS AMPLIFIED BY THE MODELS
FORECASTING CUTOFF LOWS...WHICH IS AN ITEM THEY ALL HAVE A LOWER
THAN AVERAGE SKILL AT FORECASTING.

FOR TEMPERATURES TUESDAY-FRIDAY THE SUPER BLEND WAS USED. FOR NOW
FORECASTING BELOW NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL IN THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS THROUGH TODAY.

VFR. NE WINDS UNDER 10KT BCMG SE THIS MORNING. SEA BREEZES THIS
AFTN WITH SE-S WINDS AROUND 10KT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUN THROUGH WED...
.SUN-MON...RAIN WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS. ESE/E WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO
25 KT POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFT FOR CITY/COASTAL TERMINALS.
.TUE...VFR.
.WED...CHANCE OF RAIN WITH WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS AT THE OCEAN BUOYS REMAIN BETWEEN 5-6 FT. 6Z WAVEWATCH III
DATA CAPTURES IMPACT OF PERSISTENT SE SWELLS FAIRLY WELL...AND HAS
SEAS DIMINISHING AFTER 15Z. BASED ON THIS...HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA
ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS UNTIL NOON/16Z TODAY.

OTHERWISE...A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS WILL KEEP
WINDS TO 10 KT OR LESS OVER THE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS THEN CONTINUE FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY
MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS THEN PICK UP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STORM.

IT LOOKS LIKE SCA WILL BE NEEDED FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AT LEAST ON
THE OCEAN...AND MAYBE FOR THE SOUND. A BETTER CHANCE FOR 25KT
GUSTS ON THE SOUND AND PERHAPS FOR THE HARBOR AND BAYS ARRIVES
SUNDAY NIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS OTHERWISE ON THE OCEAN THROUGH AT
LEAST MONDAY...AND POSSIBLY INTO A PORTION OF MONDAY NIGHT AS SEAS
SLOWLY SUBSIDE.

A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT THEN MAINTAINS SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL
WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
IT SHOULD BE DRY THROUGH AT LEAST THIS EVENING.

FROM AROUND 3/4-1 INCH OF RAIN IS FORECAST FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY EVENING...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. AT THIS
TIME THERE IS A LOW RISK OF PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS FOR
AREAS EXPERIENCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL DURING
THE MIDDLE TO LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY
     FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JC/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT




000
FXUS61 KOKX 301131
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
731 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A
WARM FRONT APPROACHES SUNDAY...STALLING OUT TO THE SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG
IT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY SLIDES
OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT. A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN BRING
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST
TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON
TRACK.

DEEP LAYERED RIDGING BUILDS IN TODAY...WITH ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE
KEEPING THINGS DRY. HOWEVER...IT LOOKS LIKE SOME MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN OVER TOP OF THE RIDGE...SO ONLY GOING FOR
PARTLY TO AT BEST MOSTLY SUNNY SKY CONDITIONS.

HIGHS TODAY SHOULD BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...CONSISTENT
WITH A BLEND OF MAV/ECS/MET GUIDANCE...NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES
AND A MIX DOWN FROM 900-850 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. THE
SEABREEZE SHOULD ALLOW FOR WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH AT COASTAL
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE AXIS OF THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE SLIDES TO THE EAST
TONIGHT...HOW FAST IT DOES SO WILL DETERMINE HOW FAST RAIN MOVES
INTO THE TRI-STATE AFTER MIDNIGHT. MINDFUL THAT THE GFS HAS A BIAS
OF BEING TO PROGRESSIVE WITH DEEP LAYERED RIDGING MOVING OFF THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD...LEANED TOWARDS SLOWER ECMWF/NAM. KEPT FAR
EASTERN AREAS DRY...AND LIMITED LIKELY POPS TO FAR WESTERN ZONES
LATE TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WERE BASED ON A BLEND OF MET/ECS/MAV
GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES...AND SHOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

00Z ECMWF IS THE ONLY MODEL WHICH DOES NOT DEVELOP A SECONDARY LOW
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN TRACK THE LOW S
OF LONG ISLAND MONDAY. THE CMC DOES THIS...IT JUST TRACKS THE LOW
TO THE S OF LONG ISLAND MUCH FASTER THAN OTHER GUIDANCE. THE 00Z
ECMWF IS ALSO THE ONLY MODEL TO NOT HAVE A FRONT MOVE FAR ENOUGH S
MONDAY NIGHT TO PRECLUDE RAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE RIDE ALONG IT. THIS IS BECAUSE IT IS FARTHER N
THAN OTHER MODELS WITH A 700 HPA SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
VORTICITY MAXIMA AS THEY TRANSIT THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST SUNDAY
NIGHT-MONDAY. THE 00Z CMC TAKES THE FRONT ABOUT AS FAR S AS THE
NON 00Z-ECMWF MODELS...HOWEVER IT HAS A STRONGER WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE RIDE ALONG THE FRONT THAN OTHER GUIDANCE. AS A RESULT
DID NOT INCLUDE THE 00Z ECMWF OR CMC-GLOBAL IN THE BLEND OF
GUIDANCE SUNDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER DID USE THE 12Z/29 ECMWF
AS IT WAS MORE CONSISTENT WITH REMAINDER OF 00Z MODEL SUITE.

AS A RESULT...EXPECT PERIODS OF RAIN TO DEVELOP FROM SW TO NE
SUNDAY MORNING...WITH THE RAIN LIKELY CONTINUING SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING...BEFORE TAPERING OFF MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE EXITS TO THE NE. ALSO WITH THE REGION
PROGGED TO HAVE SHOWALTERS OF -2 TO 2 FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AND TO BE IN A COUPLED UPPER JET STRUCTURE ON MONDAY...HAVE
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR MONDAY. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD
BE OF AN ELEVATED NATURE.

FOR HIGHS SUNDAY...A BLEND OF MAV/MET/12Z ECS GUIDANCE...00Z NAM
AND 12Z ECMWF 2-METER TEMPERATURES...AND A MIX DOWN FROM 975-950
HPA WAS USED PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 10-15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FOR LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT A BLEND OF 12Z ECS/00Z
MET/MAV GUIDANCE WITH 12Z ECMWF AND 00Z NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES
WAS USED...WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND NORMAL. HIGHS MONDAY
SHOULD BE AROUND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...CONSISTENT WITH A
BLEND OF MIX DOWN FROM 975-900 HPA...00Z NAM AND 12Z ECMWF 2-METER
TEMPERATURES...AND A MIXTURE OF 00Z MAV/MET AND 12Z ECS GUIDANCE.

WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN MONDAY NIGHT...SO IT SHOULD BE DRY. LOWS
WERE BASED ON A BLEND OF 00Z NAM AND 12Z ECMWF 2-METER
TEMPERATURES WITH A BLEND OF MEX/MEN/EKD/12Z ECE/ECM GUIDANCE.
LOWS SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IT SHOULD BE DRY ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW LEVELS SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENTLY DRY TO PRECLUDE PRECIPITATION EVEN WITH A 700-500 HPA
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE REGION.

THERE REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF VARIANCE IN MODEL SOLUTIONS TUESDAY
NIGHT-FRIDAY. IN A SWITCH FROM THE 12Z RUNS...THE 00Z ECMWF NOW
ENDS UP WITH THE CUTOFF LOW TO THE N BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND
THE GFS HAS IT TO OUR S. THE REASONS DEAL WITH DIFFERENCES IN
HANDLING A CUTOFF LOW OVER HUDSON BAY AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY
TRACKING DOWN ITS SW FLANK.

GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY LIMITED POPS TUESDAY NIGHT TO SLIGHT
CHANCE...THEN POPS WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY (THIS IS THEN GENERAL TIME
FRAME WHEN REGARDLESS OF SOLUTION THE MODELS INDICATED THE BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IN ALL SOLUTIONS) TO LOW END
CHANCE...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

THIS IS A VERY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM
PERIOD DUE TO THE LARGE MODEL SPREAD AND RUN TO RUN
VARIABILITY. THIS UNCERTAINTY IS AMPLIFIED BY THE MODELS
FORECASTING CUTOFF LOWS...WHICH IS AN ITEM THEY ALL HAVE A LOWER
THAN AVERAGE SKILL AT FORECASTING.

FOR TEMPERATURES TUESDAY-FRIDAY THE SUPER BLEND WAS USED. FOR NOW
FORECASTING BELOW NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL IN THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS THROUGH TODAY.

VFR. NE WINDS UNDER 10KT BCMG SE THIS MORNING. SEA BREEZES THIS
AFTN WITH SE-S WINDS AROUND 10KT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUN THROUGH WED...
.SUN-MON...RAIN WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS. ESE/E WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO
25 KT POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFT FOR CITY/COASTAL TERMINALS.
.TUE...VFR.
.WED...CHANCE OF RAIN WITH WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS AT THE OCEAN BUOYS REMAIN BETWEEN 5-6 FT. 6Z WAVEWATCH III
DATA CAPTURES IMPACT OF PERSISTENT SE SWELLS FAIRLY WELL...AND HAS
SEAS DIMINISHING AFTER 15Z. BASED ON THIS...HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA
ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS UNTIL NOON/16Z TODAY.

OTHERWISE...A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS WILL KEEP
WINDS TO 10 KT OR LESS OVER THE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS THEN CONTINUE FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY
MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS THEN PICK UP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STORM.

IT LOOKS LIKE SCA WILL BE NEEDED FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AT LEAST ON
THE OCEAN...AND MAYBE FOR THE SOUND. A BETTER CHANCE FOR 25KT
GUSTS ON THE SOUND AND PERHAPS FOR THE HARBOR AND BAYS ARRIVES
SUNDAY NIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS OTHERWISE ON THE OCEAN THROUGH AT
LEAST MONDAY...AND POSSIBLY INTO A PORTION OF MONDAY NIGHT AS SEAS
SLOWLY SUBSIDE.

A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT THEN MAINTAINS SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL
WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
IT SHOULD BE DRY THROUGH AT LEAST THIS EVENING.

FROM AROUND 3/4-1 INCH OF RAIN IS FORECAST FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY EVENING...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. AT THIS
TIME THERE IS A LOW RISK OF PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS FOR
AREAS EXPERIENCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL DURING
THE MIDDLE TO LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY
     FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JC/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 301105
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
705 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUES FOR ONE MORE DAY TODAY.
UNSETTLED AND COOL WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. A BRIEF DRYING TREND TUESDAY
WHICH MAY LAST INTO WEDNESDAY...THEN MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR
LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
700 AM UPDATE...
AREA OF CLOUDS ACROSS W NEW ENG WITH MOSUNNY SKIES IN THE EAST.
EXPECT NUMEROUS CLOUDS TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR
TODAY WHERE CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE IS PRESENT AROUND 850 MB
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE BREAKS OF SUN. THE MOST SUNSHINE WILL BE
NEAR THE COAST. TEMPS WILL REACH LOW TO MID 60S...BUT SEABREEZES
WILL DEVELOP KEEPING TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS
WILL ALLOW CLOUDS TO START MOVING BACK INTO THE AREA AND SKIES WILL
BECOME OVERCAST.  EXPECT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA.

SUNDAY...CHILLY AND WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. LOW
PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES WILL SEND RAIN INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  RAIN WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND CONNECTICUT
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...REACHING THE EAST COAST AROUND NOON. EASTERLY
WINDS AND OVERCAST SKIES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL
FOR THE FIRST OF MAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50.
WITH RAIN AND CLOUDS DELAYED UNTIL THE AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS...TEMPERATURES MAY CLIMB INTO THE MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* PERIODS OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
* DRY AND SEASONABLE TUE...POSSIBLY LASTING INTO WEDNESDAY
* MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE LATE NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW...
AMPLIFIED PATTERN DEVELOPS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS ANOMALOUS MID
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS NORTHERN ROCKIES AND WESTERN CANADA WITH
DOWNSTREAM TROF OVER THE GT LAKES. MODELS IN AGREEMENT ON
AMPLIFICATION OF THIS TROF LATE NEXT WEEK WITH CUTOFF LOW EVENTUALLY
DEVELOPING...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON EVOLUTION AND LOCATION OF THIS
CUTOFF AND SUBSEQUENT SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT SOMEWHERE ALONG THE EAST
COAST WHICH WILL DETERMINE SENSIBLE WEATHER. GENERAL THEME WILL BE A
RETURN TO UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE NEXT WEEK BUT DETAILS ARE VERY
UNCERTAIN.

DETAILS...

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...
OVERRUNNING OF WARM FRONT S OF NEW ENG WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND MODEST
FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL LEAD TO PERIODS OF RAIN SUN NIGHT.  MORE
COMPLEX SCENARIO UNFOLDING MON AS APPROACHING SHORTWAVE LEADS TO A
PRIMARY LOW MOVING TO THE WEST WHILE SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS OVER OR
SOUTH OF NEW ENG. NAM IS OVERDONE WITH HEAVY RAINFALL MON DUE TO ITS
DEPICTION OF A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WHICH SEEMS UNLIKELY. EXPECT
MAINLY LIGHT RAIN TO LINGER INTO MON...THEN TAPERING OFF MON
AFTERNOON AS BEST FORCING LIFTS TO THE NE. TRICKY TEMP FORECAST FOR
MON WHICH WILL DEPEND ON EXACTLY WHERE SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS AS
THERE WILL BE A SURGE OF MILDER AIR TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW. THERE
WILL LIKELY BE A SHARP NORTH TO SOUTH TEMP GRADIENT ACROSS SNE.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...
DRY WEATHER SHOULD RETURN TUE AS THE COLUMN DRIES WITH TEMPS
REBOUNDING TO NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
DRY WEATHER MAY PERSIST INTO WED BUT NOT AS CONFIDENT AS MID LEVEL
TROF WILL BE AMPLIFYING TO THE WEST WITH SFC WAVE LURKING TO THE
SOUTH. LOW CONFIDENCE TEMP FORECAST FOR WED AS GFS INDICATING SW
FLOW AND TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES MILDER THAN ECMWF WHICH HAS EASTERLY
FLOW.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
LOOKS LIKE AN UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH CUTOFF LOW WEST OR SW OF NEW ENG
AND SFC LOW SOMEWHERE NEAR THE EAST COAST. HOWEVER...LOW CONFIDENCE
ON DETAILS AS THERE IS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD AMONG THE DETERMINISTIC
AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REGARDING INTENSITY AND PLACEMENT OF THE SFC
LOW WHICH WILL IMPACT TEMPS AND SENSIBLE WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.  RAIN MOVES INTO W
MA/CT BETWEEN 09-12Z SUNDAY REACHING THE EAST COAST BETWEEN 15-18Z.
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE RAIN.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS IN PERIODS OF RAIN.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR WITH
LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS START TO INCREASE LATE SUNDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES THE WATERS.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

SUNDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EASTERLY WINDS MAY GUST TO 25
KT FOR A TIME WITH BUILDING SEAS. REDUCED VSBYS IN RAIN AND PATCHY
FOG.

MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE ON WINDS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK OF
LOW PRES. ROUGH SEAS...ESPECIALLY EASTERN WATERS. VSBYS REDUCED AT
TIMES IN RAIN AND FOG.

TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LIGHT WINDS BUT LEFTOVER ROUGH SEAS WILL
SLOWLY SUBSIDE.

WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST. LOW PRESSURE TO THE
SOUTH MAY RESULT IN WINDS BEING MORE EASTERLY THAN WHAT IS
CURRENTLY FORECAST.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...KJC/RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG




000
FXUS61 KBOX 301105
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
705 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUES FOR ONE MORE DAY TODAY.
UNSETTLED AND COOL WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. A BRIEF DRYING TREND TUESDAY
WHICH MAY LAST INTO WEDNESDAY...THEN MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR
LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
700 AM UPDATE...
AREA OF CLOUDS ACROSS W NEW ENG WITH MOSUNNY SKIES IN THE EAST.
EXPECT NUMEROUS CLOUDS TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR
TODAY WHERE CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE IS PRESENT AROUND 850 MB
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE BREAKS OF SUN. THE MOST SUNSHINE WILL BE
NEAR THE COAST. TEMPS WILL REACH LOW TO MID 60S...BUT SEABREEZES
WILL DEVELOP KEEPING TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS
WILL ALLOW CLOUDS TO START MOVING BACK INTO THE AREA AND SKIES WILL
BECOME OVERCAST.  EXPECT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA.

SUNDAY...CHILLY AND WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. LOW
PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES WILL SEND RAIN INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  RAIN WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND CONNECTICUT
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...REACHING THE EAST COAST AROUND NOON. EASTERLY
WINDS AND OVERCAST SKIES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL
FOR THE FIRST OF MAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50.
WITH RAIN AND CLOUDS DELAYED UNTIL THE AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS...TEMPERATURES MAY CLIMB INTO THE MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* PERIODS OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
* DRY AND SEASONABLE TUE...POSSIBLY LASTING INTO WEDNESDAY
* MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE LATE NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW...
AMPLIFIED PATTERN DEVELOPS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS ANOMALOUS MID
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS NORTHERN ROCKIES AND WESTERN CANADA WITH
DOWNSTREAM TROF OVER THE GT LAKES. MODELS IN AGREEMENT ON
AMPLIFICATION OF THIS TROF LATE NEXT WEEK WITH CUTOFF LOW EVENTUALLY
DEVELOPING...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON EVOLUTION AND LOCATION OF THIS
CUTOFF AND SUBSEQUENT SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT SOMEWHERE ALONG THE EAST
COAST WHICH WILL DETERMINE SENSIBLE WEATHER. GENERAL THEME WILL BE A
RETURN TO UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE NEXT WEEK BUT DETAILS ARE VERY
UNCERTAIN.

DETAILS...

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...
OVERRUNNING OF WARM FRONT S OF NEW ENG WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND MODEST
FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL LEAD TO PERIODS OF RAIN SUN NIGHT.  MORE
COMPLEX SCENARIO UNFOLDING MON AS APPROACHING SHORTWAVE LEADS TO A
PRIMARY LOW MOVING TO THE WEST WHILE SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS OVER OR
SOUTH OF NEW ENG. NAM IS OVERDONE WITH HEAVY RAINFALL MON DUE TO ITS
DEPICTION OF A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WHICH SEEMS UNLIKELY. EXPECT
MAINLY LIGHT RAIN TO LINGER INTO MON...THEN TAPERING OFF MON
AFTERNOON AS BEST FORCING LIFTS TO THE NE. TRICKY TEMP FORECAST FOR
MON WHICH WILL DEPEND ON EXACTLY WHERE SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS AS
THERE WILL BE A SURGE OF MILDER AIR TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW. THERE
WILL LIKELY BE A SHARP NORTH TO SOUTH TEMP GRADIENT ACROSS SNE.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...
DRY WEATHER SHOULD RETURN TUE AS THE COLUMN DRIES WITH TEMPS
REBOUNDING TO NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
DRY WEATHER MAY PERSIST INTO WED BUT NOT AS CONFIDENT AS MID LEVEL
TROF WILL BE AMPLIFYING TO THE WEST WITH SFC WAVE LURKING TO THE
SOUTH. LOW CONFIDENCE TEMP FORECAST FOR WED AS GFS INDICATING SW
FLOW AND TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES MILDER THAN ECMWF WHICH HAS EASTERLY
FLOW.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
LOOKS LIKE AN UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH CUTOFF LOW WEST OR SW OF NEW ENG
AND SFC LOW SOMEWHERE NEAR THE EAST COAST. HOWEVER...LOW CONFIDENCE
ON DETAILS AS THERE IS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD AMONG THE DETERMINISTIC
AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REGARDING INTENSITY AND PLACEMENT OF THE SFC
LOW WHICH WILL IMPACT TEMPS AND SENSIBLE WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.  RAIN MOVES INTO W
MA/CT BETWEEN 09-12Z SUNDAY REACHING THE EAST COAST BETWEEN 15-18Z.
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE RAIN.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS IN PERIODS OF RAIN.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR WITH
LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS START TO INCREASE LATE SUNDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES THE WATERS.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

SUNDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EASTERLY WINDS MAY GUST TO 25
KT FOR A TIME WITH BUILDING SEAS. REDUCED VSBYS IN RAIN AND PATCHY
FOG.

MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE ON WINDS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK OF
LOW PRES. ROUGH SEAS...ESPECIALLY EASTERN WATERS. VSBYS REDUCED AT
TIMES IN RAIN AND FOG.

TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LIGHT WINDS BUT LEFTOVER ROUGH SEAS WILL
SLOWLY SUBSIDE.

WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST. LOW PRESSURE TO THE
SOUTH MAY RESULT IN WINDS BEING MORE EASTERLY THAN WHAT IS
CURRENTLY FORECAST.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...KJC/RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG




000
FXUS61 KALY 301051
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
651 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
OVERSPREADING THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE RAIN
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND
CROSSES THE REGION. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER THEN EXPECTED FOR
THE REST WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY WILL BE THE DRY AND WARMER DAY OF THE WEEKEND. RIDGING WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TODAY BETWEEN SHORT
WAVES. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST WITH HIGHS FROM THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S. THE 60S ARE EXPECTED IN THE HUDSON AND MOHAWK
VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
WET AND VERY COOL START TO MAY.

A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING WITH THE RAIN CONTINUING INTO MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION.

THE RIDGING WILL SHIFT EAST AND FLATTEN AS SHORT WAVES APPROACH
AND A TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE SURFACE RIDGING
WILL WEAKEN AND RETREAT NORTHWARD. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ORIGINATING FROM OVER THE PLAINS WILL APPROACH WITH OVERRUNNING
PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADING THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS THE
ATMOSPHERE SATURATES. A LULL IN THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF STEADY RAINFALL OCCURS ACROSS
THE AREA MONDAY MAINLY IN THE MORNING.

GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THE SYSTEM`S WARM FRONT SHOULD NOT LIFT
NORTHWARD INTO THE LOCAL AREA BUT WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH.
HOWEVER THERE ARE DIFFERENCE IN THE GUIDANCE IF SECONDARY
DEVELOPMENT OCCURS NEAR LONG ISLAND/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND MONDAY
IN RESPONSE TO ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY APPROACHING AND MOVING
OVER THE REGION. EITHER WAY IT WILL BE WET AND COOL AS THE MAIN
LOW PASSES OVER THE REGION MONDAY WITH ENERGY SHIFTING TO THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST AND HEADING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT.

HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE CHILLY RUNNING AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER ON MONDAY BUT STILL COOL WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS DRY...AND THEN BECOMES INCREASINGLY WET
AND UNSETTLED WITH A MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH EAST OF THE MS RIVER
VALLEY...AND A CUTOFF LOW IMPACTING THE REGION TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WEEK.

TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION AND THE SOUTHEAST...AS A SFC HIGH BUILDS IN OVER NY AND NEW
ENGLAND. THIS ANTICYCLONE WILL BRING A BRIEF WINDOW OF FAIR AND
TRANQUIL WEATHER BASED ON THE LATEST ECMWF/GFS/WPC GUIDANCE.  THE
CANADIAN GGEM IS AN OUTLIER SOLUTION WITH A WAVE MOVING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY PASSING CLOSE TO LONG ISLAND FOR MORE CLOUDS AND SOME
SHOWERS. FAIR AND DRY WX IS EXPECTED WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS...WITH
HIGHS IN THE U50S TO L60S OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U60S IN THE
VALLEY AREAS.

TUE NIGHT INTO WED...A DIGGING NRN STREAM H500 TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
S/SE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...ATTEMPTING TO PHASE WITH A SRN
STREAM UPPER LOW NEAR THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. SOME CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NRN STREAM TROUGH...AND A SFC COLD FRONT.
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY WITH THE WEAK WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.  LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO M40S WITH SOME U30S
OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND SRN GREENS.  THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
VARIES SOME ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE BROAD H500 UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
ERN CONUS WED...WHICH IS DELAYING THE ONSET OF SHOWERS.  THERE IS
ENOUGH SYNOPTIC FORCING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND THE NRN STREAM
H500 TROUGH FOR AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY.  HIGHS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TUE.

WED NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THE LONGWAVE TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY
TILTED WED NIGHT INTO THU FOR A COASTAL LOW TO FORM NEAR THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION.  THE ENSEMBLES AND MEDIUM RANGE DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE INDICATE DECENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF AND WRN
ATLANTIC FOR SCT SHOWERS TO BREAK OUT ESPECIALLY FROM THE MOHAWK
VALLEY SOUTH AND EAST WED NIGHT...AND THEN OVER THE ENTIRE REGION BY
THU.  POPS WERE HELD IN THE HIGH CHC RANGE...BUT MAY NEED TO BE
RAISED TO LIKELY IN THE NEAR FUTURE.  A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN IS
LIKELY THU-THU NIGHT WITH STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT...AND DIFFERENTIAL
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION YIELDING PERIODS OF RAIN.  THE
GFS/ECMWF/ENSEMBLES VARY A BIT IN THE EXACT LOCATION...BUT LATE THU
INTO THU NIGHT THE H500 LOW CUTS OFF OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...OR AS FAR NORTH AS THE PA/NY BORDER.  SCT SHOWERS LOOK TO
CONTINUE THU NIGHT INTO FRI.  THE CUTOFF LOOKS TO HANG AROUND INTO
THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. SHOWERY AND COOL WEATHER WILL
PERSIST...AS THIS PATTERN RESEMBLES MORE APRIL THAN MAY.  LOWS WILL
BE IN THE U30S TO M40S...WITH HIGHS IN THE M50S TO U60S OVER THE
FCST AREA TO CLOSE THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BACK IN LATE THIS MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST.

CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY VFR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CIGS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE 3.5-7 KFT AGL RANGE THIS MORNING BEFORE SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC ANTICYCLONE BUILDS IN.  CIGS WILL BE SCT-BKN
IN THE 3.5-6 KFT AGL RANGE WITH SCT-BKN CIRRUS. THE CLOUDS WILL
THICKEN AND LOWER A BIT TOWARDS 22Z/SAT TO 01Z/SUN AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. THE BEST CHC OF SOME LIGHT RAIN OR
SHOWERS REACHING ANY TAF SITE BEFORE 12Z/SUN WILL BE KPOU...AND A
VCSH GROUP WAS USED STARTED AT 09Z/01. CIGS WILL GENERALLY LOWER
TO 3.5-6 KFT AGL AFTER 05Z/SUN.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 3-7 KTS THIS
MORNING.  THEY WILL BE FROM THE SW TO W AT 3-6 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AT
KPOU/KPSF....AND E/NE AT KGFL/KALB.  THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
OVERSPREADING THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE RAIN
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND
CROSSES THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ARE
FORECAST. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REST
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN 30S
ACROSS THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT...WITH VALUES OTHERWISE MAINLY IN THE 40S. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT TODAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

DRY WEATHER TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
OVERSPREADING THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE RAIN
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND
CROSSES THE REGION. QPF AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ARE FORECAST. THIS
RAINFALL WILL BE BENEFICIAL DUE TO DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS FOR
THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REST WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA




000
FXUS61 KOKX 301031
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
631 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A
WARM FRONT APPROACHES SUNDAY...STALLING OUT TO THE SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG
IT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY SLIDES
OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT. A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN BRING
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST
TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON
TRACK.

DEEP LAYERED RIDGING BUILDS IN TODAY...WITH ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE
KEEPING THINGS DRY. HOWEVER...IT LOOKS LIKE SOME MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN OVER TOP OF THE RIDGE...SO ONLY GOING FOR
PARTLY TO AT BEST MOSTLY SUNNY SKY CONDITIONS.

HIGHS TODAY SHOULD BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...CONSISTENT
WITH A BLEND OF MAV/ECS/MET GUIDANCE...NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES
AND A MIX DOWN FROM 900-850 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. THE
SEABREEZE SHOULD ALLOW FOR WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH AT COASTAL
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE AXIS OF THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE SLIDES TO THE EAST
TONIGHT...HOW FAST IT DOES SO WILL DETERMINE HOW FAST RAIN MOVES
INTO THE TRI-STATE AFTER MIDNIGHT. MINDFUL THAT THE GFS HAS A BIAS
OF BEING TO PROGRESSIVE WITH DEEP LAYERED RIDGING MOVING OFF THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD...LEANED TOWARDS SLOWER ECMWF/NAM. KEPT FAR
EASTERN AREAS DRY...AND LIMITED LIKELY POPS TO FAR WESTERN ZONES
LATE TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WERE BASED ON A BLEND OF MET/ECS/MAV
GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES...AND SHOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

00Z ECMWF IS THE ONLY MODEL WHICH DOES NOT DEVELOP A SECONDARY LOW
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN TRACK THE LOW S
OF LONG ISLAND MONDAY. THE CMC DOES THIS...IT JUST TRACKS THE LOW
TO THE S OF LONG ISLAND MUCH FASTER THAN OTHER GUIDANCE. THE 00Z
ECMWF IS ALSO THE ONLY MODEL TO NOT HAVE A FRONT MOVE FAR ENOUGH S
MONDAY NIGHT TO PRECLUDE RAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE RIDE ALONG IT. THIS IS BECAUSE IT IS FARTHER N
THAN OTHER MODELS WITH A 700 HPA SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
VORTICITY MAXIMA AS THEY TRANSIT THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST SUNDAY
NIGHT-MONDAY. THE 00Z CMC TAKES THE FRONT ABOUT AS FAR S AS THE
NON 00Z-ECMWF MODELS...HOWEVER IT HAS A STRONGER WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE RIDE ALONG THE FRONT THAN OTHER GUIDANCE. AS A RESULT
DID NOT INCLUDE THE 00Z ECMWF OR CMC-GLOBAL IN THE BLEND OF
GUIDANCE SUNDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER DID USE THE 12Z/29 ECMWF
AS IT WAS MORE CONSISTENT WITH REMAINDER OF 00Z MODEL SUITE.

AS A RESULT...EXPECT PERIODS OF RAIN TO DEVELOP FROM SW TO NE
SUNDAY MORNING...WITH THE RAIN LIKELY CONTINUING SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING...BEFORE TAPERING OFF MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE EXITS TO THE NE. ALSO WITH THE REGION
PROGGED TO HAVE SHOWALTERS OF -2 TO 2 FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AND TO BE IN A COUPLED UPPER JET STRUCTURE ON MONDAY...HAVE
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR MONDAY. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD
BE OF AN ELEVATED NATURE.

FOR HIGHS SUNDAY...A BLEND OF MAV/MET/12Z ECS GUIDANCE...00Z NAM
AND 12Z ECMWF 2-METER TEMPERATURES...AND A MIX DOWN FROM 975-950
HPA WAS USED PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 10-15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FOR LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT A BLEND OF 12Z ECS/00Z
MET/MAV GUIDANCE WITH 12Z ECMWF AND 00Z NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES
WAS USED...WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND NORMAL. HIGHS MONDAY
SHOULD BE AROUND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...CONSISTENT WITH A
BLEND OF MIX DOWN FROM 975-900 HPA...00Z NAM AND 12Z ECMWF 2-METER
TEMPERATURES...AND A MIXTURE OF 00Z MAV/MET AND 12Z ECS GUIDANCE.

WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN MONDAY NIGHT...SO IT SHOULD BE DRY. LOWS
WERE BASED ON A BLEND OF 00Z NAM AND 12Z ECMWF 2-METER
TEMPERATURES WITH A BLEND OF MEX/MEN/EKD/12Z ECE/ECM GUIDANCE.
LOWS SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IT SHOULD BE DRY ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW LEVELS SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENTLY DRY TO PRECLUDE PRECIPITATION EVEN WITH A 700-500 HPA
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE REGION.

THERE REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF VARIANCE IN MODEL SOLUTIONS TUESDAY
NIGHT-FRIDAY. IN A SWITCH FROM THE 12Z RUNS...THE 00Z ECMWF NOW
ENDS UP WITH THE CUTOFF LOW TO THE N BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND
THE GFS HAS IT TO OUR S. THE REASONS DEAL WITH DIFFERENCES IN
HANDLING A CUTOFF LOW OVER HUDSON BAY AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY
TRACKING DOWN ITS SW FLANK.

GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY LIMITED POPS TUESDAY NIGHT TO SLIGHT
CHANCE...THEN POPS WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY (THIS IS THEN GENERAL TIME
FRAME WHEN REGARDLESS OF SOLUTION THE MODELS INDICATED THE BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IN ALL SOLUTIONS) TO LOW END
CHANCE...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

THIS IS A VERY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM
PERIOD DUE TO THE LARGE MODEL SPREAD AND RUN TO RUN
VARIABILITY. THIS UNCERTAINTY IS AMPLIFIED BY THE MODELS
FORECASTING CUTOFF LOWS...WHICH IS AN ITEM THEY ALL HAVE A LOWER
THAN AVERAGE SKILL AT FORECASTING.

FOR TEMPERATURES TUESDAY-FRIDAY THE SUPER BLEND WAS USED. FOR NOW
FORECASTING BELOW NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL IN THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS THROUGH TODAY.

VFR. NE WINDS UNDER 10KT BCMG SE AFTER DAYBREAK. SEA BREEZES THIS
AFTN WITH SE-S WINDS AROUND 10KT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUN THROUGH WED...
.SAT OVERNIGHT...VFR.
.SUN-MON...RAIN WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS. ESE/E WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO
25 KT POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFT FOR CITY/COASTAL TERMINALS.
.TUE...VFR.
.WED...CHANCE OF RAIN WITH WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS AT THE OCEAN BUOYS REMAIN BETWEEN 5-6 FT. 6Z WAVEWATCH III
DATA CAPTURES IMPACT OF PERSISTENT SE SWELLS FAIRLY WELL...AND HAS
SEAS DIMINISHING AFTER 15Z. BASED ON THIS...HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA
ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS UNTIL NOON/16Z TODAY.

OTHERWISE...A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS WILL KEEP
WINDS TO 10 KT OR LESS OVER THE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS THEN CONTINUE FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY
MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS THEN PICK UP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STORM.

IT LOOKS LIKE SCA WILL BE NEEDED FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AT LEAST ON
THE OCEAN...AND MAYBE FOR THE SOUND. A BETTER CHANCE FOR 25KT
GUSTS ON THE SOUND AND PERHAPS FOR THE HARBOR AND BAYS ARRIVES
SUNDAY NIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS OTHERWISE ON THE OCEAN THROUGH AT
LEAST MONDAY...AND POSSIBLY INTO A PORTION OF MONDAY NIGHT AS SEAS
SLOWLY SUBSIDE.

A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT THEN MAINTAINS SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL
WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
IT SHOULD BE DRY THROUGH AT LEAST THIS EVENING.

FROM AROUND 3/4-1 INCH OF RAIN IS FORECAST FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY EVENING...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. AT THIS
TIME THERE IS A LOW RISK OF PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS FOR
AREAS EXPERIENCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL DURING
THE MIDDLE TO LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY
     FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...MALOIT/JC
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT




000
FXUS61 KOKX 301031
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
631 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A
WARM FRONT APPROACHES SUNDAY...STALLING OUT TO THE SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG
IT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY SLIDES
OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT. A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN BRING
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST
TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON
TRACK.

DEEP LAYERED RIDGING BUILDS IN TODAY...WITH ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE
KEEPING THINGS DRY. HOWEVER...IT LOOKS LIKE SOME MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN OVER TOP OF THE RIDGE...SO ONLY GOING FOR
PARTLY TO AT BEST MOSTLY SUNNY SKY CONDITIONS.

HIGHS TODAY SHOULD BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...CONSISTENT
WITH A BLEND OF MAV/ECS/MET GUIDANCE...NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES
AND A MIX DOWN FROM 900-850 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. THE
SEABREEZE SHOULD ALLOW FOR WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH AT COASTAL
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE AXIS OF THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE SLIDES TO THE EAST
TONIGHT...HOW FAST IT DOES SO WILL DETERMINE HOW FAST RAIN MOVES
INTO THE TRI-STATE AFTER MIDNIGHT. MINDFUL THAT THE GFS HAS A BIAS
OF BEING TO PROGRESSIVE WITH DEEP LAYERED RIDGING MOVING OFF THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD...LEANED TOWARDS SLOWER ECMWF/NAM. KEPT FAR
EASTERN AREAS DRY...AND LIMITED LIKELY POPS TO FAR WESTERN ZONES
LATE TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WERE BASED ON A BLEND OF MET/ECS/MAV
GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES...AND SHOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

00Z ECMWF IS THE ONLY MODEL WHICH DOES NOT DEVELOP A SECONDARY LOW
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN TRACK THE LOW S
OF LONG ISLAND MONDAY. THE CMC DOES THIS...IT JUST TRACKS THE LOW
TO THE S OF LONG ISLAND MUCH FASTER THAN OTHER GUIDANCE. THE 00Z
ECMWF IS ALSO THE ONLY MODEL TO NOT HAVE A FRONT MOVE FAR ENOUGH S
MONDAY NIGHT TO PRECLUDE RAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE RIDE ALONG IT. THIS IS BECAUSE IT IS FARTHER N
THAN OTHER MODELS WITH A 700 HPA SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
VORTICITY MAXIMA AS THEY TRANSIT THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST SUNDAY
NIGHT-MONDAY. THE 00Z CMC TAKES THE FRONT ABOUT AS FAR S AS THE
NON 00Z-ECMWF MODELS...HOWEVER IT HAS A STRONGER WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE RIDE ALONG THE FRONT THAN OTHER GUIDANCE. AS A RESULT
DID NOT INCLUDE THE 00Z ECMWF OR CMC-GLOBAL IN THE BLEND OF
GUIDANCE SUNDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER DID USE THE 12Z/29 ECMWF
AS IT WAS MORE CONSISTENT WITH REMAINDER OF 00Z MODEL SUITE.

AS A RESULT...EXPECT PERIODS OF RAIN TO DEVELOP FROM SW TO NE
SUNDAY MORNING...WITH THE RAIN LIKELY CONTINUING SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING...BEFORE TAPERING OFF MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE EXITS TO THE NE. ALSO WITH THE REGION
PROGGED TO HAVE SHOWALTERS OF -2 TO 2 FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AND TO BE IN A COUPLED UPPER JET STRUCTURE ON MONDAY...HAVE
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR MONDAY. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD
BE OF AN ELEVATED NATURE.

FOR HIGHS SUNDAY...A BLEND OF MAV/MET/12Z ECS GUIDANCE...00Z NAM
AND 12Z ECMWF 2-METER TEMPERATURES...AND A MIX DOWN FROM 975-950
HPA WAS USED PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 10-15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FOR LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT A BLEND OF 12Z ECS/00Z
MET/MAV GUIDANCE WITH 12Z ECMWF AND 00Z NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES
WAS USED...WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND NORMAL. HIGHS MONDAY
SHOULD BE AROUND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...CONSISTENT WITH A
BLEND OF MIX DOWN FROM 975-900 HPA...00Z NAM AND 12Z ECMWF 2-METER
TEMPERATURES...AND A MIXTURE OF 00Z MAV/MET AND 12Z ECS GUIDANCE.

WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN MONDAY NIGHT...SO IT SHOULD BE DRY. LOWS
WERE BASED ON A BLEND OF 00Z NAM AND 12Z ECMWF 2-METER
TEMPERATURES WITH A BLEND OF MEX/MEN/EKD/12Z ECE/ECM GUIDANCE.
LOWS SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IT SHOULD BE DRY ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW LEVELS SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENTLY DRY TO PRECLUDE PRECIPITATION EVEN WITH A 700-500 HPA
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE REGION.

THERE REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF VARIANCE IN MODEL SOLUTIONS TUESDAY
NIGHT-FRIDAY. IN A SWITCH FROM THE 12Z RUNS...THE 00Z ECMWF NOW
ENDS UP WITH THE CUTOFF LOW TO THE N BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND
THE GFS HAS IT TO OUR S. THE REASONS DEAL WITH DIFFERENCES IN
HANDLING A CUTOFF LOW OVER HUDSON BAY AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY
TRACKING DOWN ITS SW FLANK.

GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY LIMITED POPS TUESDAY NIGHT TO SLIGHT
CHANCE...THEN POPS WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY (THIS IS THEN GENERAL TIME
FRAME WHEN REGARDLESS OF SOLUTION THE MODELS INDICATED THE BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IN ALL SOLUTIONS) TO LOW END
CHANCE...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

THIS IS A VERY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM
PERIOD DUE TO THE LARGE MODEL SPREAD AND RUN TO RUN
VARIABILITY. THIS UNCERTAINTY IS AMPLIFIED BY THE MODELS
FORECASTING CUTOFF LOWS...WHICH IS AN ITEM THEY ALL HAVE A LOWER
THAN AVERAGE SKILL AT FORECASTING.

FOR TEMPERATURES TUESDAY-FRIDAY THE SUPER BLEND WAS USED. FOR NOW
FORECASTING BELOW NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL IN THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS THROUGH TODAY.

VFR. NE WINDS UNDER 10KT BCMG SE AFTER DAYBREAK. SEA BREEZES THIS
AFTN WITH SE-S WINDS AROUND 10KT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUN THROUGH WED...
.SAT OVERNIGHT...VFR.
.SUN-MON...RAIN WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS. ESE/E WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO
25 KT POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFT FOR CITY/COASTAL TERMINALS.
.TUE...VFR.
.WED...CHANCE OF RAIN WITH WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS AT THE OCEAN BUOYS REMAIN BETWEEN 5-6 FT. 6Z WAVEWATCH III
DATA CAPTURES IMPACT OF PERSISTENT SE SWELLS FAIRLY WELL...AND HAS
SEAS DIMINISHING AFTER 15Z. BASED ON THIS...HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA
ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS UNTIL NOON/16Z TODAY.

OTHERWISE...A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS WILL KEEP
WINDS TO 10 KT OR LESS OVER THE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS THEN CONTINUE FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY
MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS THEN PICK UP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STORM.

IT LOOKS LIKE SCA WILL BE NEEDED FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AT LEAST ON
THE OCEAN...AND MAYBE FOR THE SOUND. A BETTER CHANCE FOR 25KT
GUSTS ON THE SOUND AND PERHAPS FOR THE HARBOR AND BAYS ARRIVES
SUNDAY NIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS OTHERWISE ON THE OCEAN THROUGH AT
LEAST MONDAY...AND POSSIBLY INTO A PORTION OF MONDAY NIGHT AS SEAS
SLOWLY SUBSIDE.

A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT THEN MAINTAINS SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL
WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
IT SHOULD BE DRY THROUGH AT LEAST THIS EVENING.

FROM AROUND 3/4-1 INCH OF RAIN IS FORECAST FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY EVENING...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. AT THIS
TIME THERE IS A LOW RISK OF PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS FOR
AREAS EXPERIENCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL DURING
THE MIDDLE TO LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY
     FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...MALOIT/JC
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT




000
FXUS61 KALY 300911
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
511 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
OVERSPREADING THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE RAIN
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND
CROSSES THE REGION. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER THEN EXPECTED FOR
THE REST WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY WILL BE THE DRY AND WARMER DAY OF THE WEEKEND. RIDGING WILL
BRIEFLY BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TODAY BETWEEN SHORT
WAVES. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST WITH HIGHS FROM THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S. THE 60S ARE EXPECTED IN THE HUDSON AND MOHAWK
VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
VERY COOL AND WET START TO MAY.

A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING WITH THE RAIN CONTINUING INTO MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION.

THE RIDGING WILL SHIFT EAST AND FLATTEN AS SHORT WAVES APPROACH
AND A TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE SURFACE RIDGING
WILL WEAKEN AND RETREAT NORTHWARD. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ORIGINATING FROM OVER THE PAINS WILL APPROACH WITH OVERRUNNING
PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADING THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS THE
ATMOSPHERE SATURATES. A LULL IN THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF STEADY RAINFALL OCCURS ACROSS
THE AREA MONDAY MAINLY IN THE MORNING.

GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THE SYSTEM`S WARM FRONT SHOULD NOT LIFT
NORTHWARD INTO THE LOCAL AREA BUT WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH.
HOWEVER THERE ARE DIFFERENCE IN THE GUIDANCE IF SECONDARY
DEVELOPMENT OCCURS NEAR LONG ISLAND/SOUTHERN MONDAY IN RESPONSE
TO ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY APPROACHING AND MOVING OVER THE
REGION. EITHER WAY IT WILL BE WET AND COOL AS THE MAIN LOW
PASSES OVER THE REGION MONDAY WITH ENERGY SHIFTING TO THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST AND HEADING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT.

HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE CHILLY RUNNING AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER ON MONDAY BUT STILL COOL WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS DRY...AND THEN BECOMES INCREASINGLY WET
AND UNSETTLED WITH A MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH EAST OF THE MS RIVER
VALLEY...AND A CUTOFF LOW IMPACTING THE REGION TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WEEK.

TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION AND THE SOUTHEAST...AS A SFC HIGH BUILDS IN OVER NY AND NEW
ENGLAND. THIS ANTICYCLONE WILL BRING A BRIEF WINDOW OF FAIR AND
TRANQUIL WEATHER BASED ON THE LATEST ECMWF/GFS/WPC GUIDANCE.  THE
CANADIAN GGEM IS AN OUTLIER SOLUTION WITH A WAVE MOVING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY PASSING CLOSE TO LONG ISLAND FOR MORE CLOUDS AND SOME
SHOWERS. FAIR AND DRY WX IS EXPECTED WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS...WITH
HIGHS IN THE U50S TO L60S OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U60S IN THE
VALLEY AREAS.

TUE NIGHT INTO WED...A DIGGING NRN STREAM H500 TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
S/SE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...ATTEMPTING TO PHASE WITH A SRN
STREAM UPPER LOW NEAR THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. SOME CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NRN STREAM TROUGH...AND A SFC COLD FRONT.
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY WITH THE WEAK WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.  LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO M40S WITH SOME U30S
OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND SRN GREENS.  THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
VARIES SOME ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE BROAD H500 UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
ERN CONUS WED...WHICH IS DELAYING THE ONSET OF SHOWERS.  THERE IS
ENOUGH SYNOPTIC FORCING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND THE NRN STREAM
H500 TROUGH FOR AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY.  HIGHS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TUE.

WED NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THE LONGWAVE TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY
TILTED WED NIGHT INTO THU FOR A COASTAL LOW TO FORM NEAR THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION.  THE ENSEMBLES AND MEDIUM RANGE DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE INDICATE DECENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF AND WRN
ATLANTIC FOR SCT SHOWERS TO BREAK OUT ESPECIALLY FROM THE MOHAWK
VALLEY SOUTH AND EAST WED NIGHT...AND THEN OVER THE ENTIRE REGION BY
THU.  POPS WERE HELD IN THE HIGH CHC RANGE...BUT MAY NEED TO BE
RAISED TO LIKELY IN THE NEAR FUTURE.  A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN IS
LIKELY THU-THU NIGHT WITH STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT...AND DIFFERENTIAL
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION YIELDING PERIODS OF RAIN.  THE
GFS/ECMWF/ENSEMBLES VARY A BIT IN THE EXACT LOCATION...BUT LATE THU
INTO THU NIGHT THE H500 LOW CUTS OFF OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...OR AS FAR NORTH AS THE PA/NY BORDER.  SCT SHOWERS LOOK TO
CONTINUE THU NIGHT INTO FRI.  THE CUTOFF LOOKS TO HANG AROUND INTO
THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. SHOWERY AND COOL WEATHER WILL
PERSIST...AS THIS PATTERN RESEMBLES MORE APRIL THAN MAY.  LOWS WILL
BE IN THE U30S TO M40S...WITH HIGHS IN THE M50S TO U60S OVER THE
FCST AREA TO CLOSE THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS PA AND SRN NY THIS MORNING
WITH A FEW SHOWERS.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BACK IN LATE
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.  CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST.

CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY VFR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXCEPT FOR
KPOU/KPSF WHERE SOME HIGH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN THE 4-5SM AND 2.5-3.0
KFT AGL RANGE MAY IMPACT THE TERMINALS BTWN 08-12Z/SAT. CIGS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 3.5-6 KFT AGL RANGE THIS MORNING BEFORE
SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC ANTICYCLONE BUILDS IN.  CIGS WILL
GENERALLY BE SCT-BKN IN THE 3.5-6 KFT AGL RANGE WITH SCT-BKN CIRRUS.
THE CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER A BIT TOWARDS 22Z/SAT TO 01Z/SUN
AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 3-7 KTS THIS
MORNING.  THEY WILL BE FROM THE SW TO W AT 3-6 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AT
KPOU/KPSF....AND E/NE AT KGFL/KALB.  THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
OVERSPREADING THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE RAIN
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND
CROSSES THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ARE
FORECAST. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REST
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN 30S
ACROSS THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT...WITH VALUES OTHERWISE MAINLY IN THE 40S. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT TODAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

DRY WEATHER TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
OVERSPREADING THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE RAIN
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND
CROSSES THE REGION. QPF AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ARE FORECAST. THIS
RAINFALL WILL BE BENEFICIAL DUE TO DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS FOR
THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REST WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 300846
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
446 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
OVERSPREADING THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE RAIN
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND
CROSSES THE REGION. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER THEN EXPECTED FOR
THE REST WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY WILL BE THE DRY AND WARMER DAY OF THE WEEKEND. RIDGING WILL
BRIEFLY BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TODAY BETWEEN SHORT
WAVES. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST WITH HIGHS FROM THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S. THE 60S ARE EXPETCED IN THE HUDSON AND MOHAWK
VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OVERSPREADING THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
WITH THE RAIN CONTINUING INTO MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS DRY...AND THEN BECOMES INCREASINGLY WET
AND UNSETTLED WITH A MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH EAST OF THE MS RIVER
VALLEY...AND A CUTOFF LOW IMPACTING THE REGION TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WEEK.

TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION AND THE SOUTHEAST...AS A SFC HIGH BUILDS IN OVER NY AND NEW
ENGLAND. THIS ANTICYCLONE WILL BRING A BRIEF WINDOW OF FAIR AND
TRANQUIL WEATHER BASED ON THE LATEST ECMWF/GFS/WPC GUIDANCE.  THE
CANADIAN GGEM IS AN OUTLIER SOLUTION WITH A WAVE MOVING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY PASSING CLOSE TO LONG ISLAND FOR MORE CLOUDS AND SOME
SHOWERS. FAIR AND DRY WX IS EXPECTED WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS...WITH
HIGHS IN THE U50S TO L60S OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U60S IN THE
VALLEY AREAS.

TUE NIGHT INTO WED...A DIGGING NRN STREAM H500 TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
S/SE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...ATTEMPTING TO PHASE WITH A SRN
STREAM UPPER LOW NEAR THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. SOME CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NRN STREAM TROUGH...AND A SFC COLD FRONT.
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY WITH THE WEAK WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.  LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO M40S WITH SOME U30S
OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND SRN GREENS.  THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
VARIES SOME ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE BROAD H500 UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
ERN CONUS WED...WHICH IS DELAYING THE ONSET OF SHOWERS.  THERE IS
ENOUGH SYNOPTIC FORCING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND THE NRN STREAM
H500 TROUGH FOR AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY.  HIGHS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TUE.

WED NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THE LONGWAVE TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY
TILTED WED NIGHT INTO THU FOR A COASTAL LOW TO FORM NEAR THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION.  THE ENSEMBLES AND MEDIUM RANGE DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE INDICATE DECENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF AND WRN
ATLANTIC FOR SCT SHOWERS TO BREAK OUT ESPECIALLY FROM THE MOHAWK
VALLEY SOUTH AND EAST WED NIGHT...AND THEN OVER THE ENTIRE REGION BY
THU.  POPS WERE HELD IN THE HIGH CHC RANGE...BUT MAY NEED TO BE
RAISED TO LIKELY IN THE NEAR FUTURE.  A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN IS
LIKELY THU-THU NIGHT WITH STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT...AND DIFFERENTIAL
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION YIELDING PERIODS OF RAIN.  THE
GFS/ECMWF/ENSEMBLES VARY A BIT IN THE EXACT LOCATION...BUT LATE THU
INTO THU NIGHT THE H500 LOW CUTS OFF OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...OR AS FAR NORTH AS THE PA/NY BORDER.  SCT SHOWERS LOOK TO
CONTINUE THU NIGHT INTO FRI.  THE CUTOFF LOOKS TO HANG AROUND INTO
THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. SHOWERY AND COOL WEATHER WILL
PERSIST...AS THIS PATTERN RESEMBLES MORE APRIL THAN MAY.  LOWS WILL
BE IN THE U30S TO M40S...WITH HIGHS IN THE M50S TO U60S OVER THE
FCST AREA TO CLOSE THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS PA AND SRN NY THIS MORNING
WITH A FEW SHOWERS.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BACK IN LATE
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.  CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST.

CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY VFR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXCEPT FOR
KPOU/KPSF WHERE SOME HIGH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN THE 4-5SM AND 2.5-3.0
KFT AGL RANGE MAY IMPACT THE TERMINALS BTWN 08-12Z/SAT. CIGS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 3.5-6 KFT AGL RANGE THIS MORNING BEFORE
SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC ANTICYCLONE BUILDS IN.  CIGS WILL
GENERALLY BE SCT-BKN IN THE 3.5-6 KFT AGL RANGE WITH SCT-BKN CIRRUS.
THE CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER A BIT TOWARDS 22Z/SAT TO 01Z/SUN
AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 3-7 KTS THIS
MORNING.  THEY WILL BE FROM THE SW TO W AT 3-6 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AT
KPOU/KPSF....AND E/NE AT KGFL/KALB.  THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
OVERSPREADING THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE RAIN
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND
CROSSES THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ARE
FORECAST. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REST
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN 30S
ACROSS THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT...WITH VALUES OTHERWISE MAINLY IN THE 40S. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT TODAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

DRY WEATHER TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
OVERSPREADING THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE RAIN
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND
CROSSES THE REGION. QPF AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ARE FORECAST. THIS
RAINFALL WILL BE BENEFICIAL DUE TO DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS FOR
THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REST WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.


&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA




000
FXUS61 KOKX 300826
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
426 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A
WARM FRONT APPROACHES SUNDAY...STALLING OUT TO THE SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG
IT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY SLIDES
OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT. A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN BRING
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DEEP LAYERED RIDGING BUILDS IN TODAY...WITH ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE
KEEPING THINGS DRY. HOWEVER...IT LOOKS LIKE SOME MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN OVER TOP OF THE RIDGE...SO ONLY GOING FOR
PARTLY TO AT BEST MOSTLY SUNNY SKY CONDITIONS.

HIGHS TODAY SHOULD BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...CONSISTENT
WITH A BLEND OF MAV/ECS/MET GUIDANCE...NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES
AND A MIX DOWN FROM 900-850 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. THE
SEABREEZE SHOULD ALLOW FOR WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH AT COASTAL
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE AXIS OF THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE SLIDES TO THE EAST
TONIGHT...HOW FAST IT DOES SO WILL DETERMINE HOW FAST RAIN MOVES
INTO THE TRI-STATE AFTER MIDNIGHT. MINDFUL THAT THE GFS HAS A BIAS
OF BEING TO PROGRESSIVE WITH DEEP LAYERED RIDGING MOVING OFF THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD...LEANED TOWARDS SLOWER ECMWF/NAM. KEPT FAR
EASTERN AREAS DRY...AND LIMITED LIKELY POPS TO FAR WESTERN ZONES
LATE TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WERE BASED ON A BLEND OF MET/ECS/MAV
GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES...AND SHOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

00Z ECMWF IS THE ONLY MODEL WHICH DOES NOT DEVELOP A SECONDARY LOW
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN TRACK THE LOW S
OF LONG ISLAND MONDAY. THE CMC DOES THIS...IT JUST TRACKS THE LOW
TO THE S OF LONG ISLAND MUCH FASTER THAN OTHER GUIDANCE. THE 00Z
ECMWF IS ALSO THE ONLY MODEL TO NOT HAVE A FRONT MOVE FAR ENOUGH S
MONDAY NIGHT TO PRECLUDE RAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE RIDE ALONG IT. THIS IS BECAUSE IT IS FARTHER N
THAN OTHER MODELS WITH A 700 HPA SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
VORTICITY MAXIMA AS THEY TRANSIT THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST SUNDAY
NIGHT-MONDAY. THE 00Z CMC TAKES THE FRONT ABOUT AS FAR S AS THE
NON 00Z-ECMWF MODELS...HOWEVER IT HAS A STRONGER WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE RIDE ALONG THE FRONT THAN OTHER GUIDANCE. AS A RESULT
DID NOT INCLUDE THE 00Z ECMWF OR CMC-GLOBAL IN THE BLEND OF
GUIDANCE SUNDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER DID USE THE 12Z/29 ECMWF
AS IT WAS MORE CONSISTENT WITH REMAINDER OF 00Z MODEL SUITE.

AS A RESULT...EXPECT PERIODS OF RAIN TO DEVELOP FROM SW TO NE
SUNDAY MORNING...WITH THE RAIN LIKELY CONTINUING SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING...BEFORE TAPERING OFF MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE EXITS TO THE NE. ALSO WITH THE REGION
PROGGED TO HAVE SHOWALTERS OF -2 TO 2 FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AND TO BE IN A COUPLED UPPER JET STRUCTURE ON MONDAY...HAVE
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR MONDAY. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD
BE OF AN ELEVATED NATURE.

FOR HIGHS SUNDAY...A BLEND OF MAV/MET/12Z ECS GUIDANCE...00Z NAM
AND 12Z ECMWF 2-METER TEMPERATURES...AND A MIX DOWN FROM 975-950
HPA WAS USED PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 10-15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FOR LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT A BLEND OF 12Z ECS/00Z
MET/MAV GUIDANCE WITH 12Z ECMWF AND 00Z NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES
WAS USED...WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND NORMAL. HIGHS MONDAY
SHOULD BE AROUND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...CONSISTENT WITH A
BLEND OF MIX DOWN FROM 975-900 HPA...00Z NAM AND 12Z ECMWF 2-METER
TEMPERATURES...AND A MIXTURE OF 00Z MAV/MET AND 12Z ECS GUIDANCE.

WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN MONDAY NIGHT...SO IT SHOULD BE DRY. LOWS
WERE BASED ON A BLEND OF 00Z NAM AND 12Z ECMWF 2-METER
TEMPERATURES WITH A BLEND OF MEX/MEN/EKD/12Z ECE/ECM GUIDANCE.
LOWS SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IT SHOULD BE DRY ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW LEVELS SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENTLY DRY TO PRECLUDE PRECIPITATION EVEN WITH A 700-500 HPA
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE REGION.

THERE REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF VARIANCE IN MODEL SOLUTIONS TUESDAY
NIGHT-FRIDAY. IN A SWITCH FROM THE 12Z RUNS...THE 00Z ECMWF NOW
ENDS UP WITH THE CUTOFF LOW TO THE N BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND
THE GFS HAS IT TO OUR S. THE REASONS DEAL WITH DIFFERENCES IN
HANDLING A CUTOFF LOW OVER HUDSON BAY AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY
TRACKING DOWN ITS SW FLANK.

GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY LIMITED POPS TUESDAY NIGHT TO SLIGHT
CHANCE...THEN POPS WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY (THIS IS THEN GENERAL TIME
FRAME WHEN REGARDLESS OF SOLUTION THE MODELS INDICATED THE BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IN ALL SOLUTIONS) TO LOW END
CHANCE...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

THIS IS A VERY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM
PERIOD DUE TO THE LARGE MODEL SPREAD AND RUN TO RUN
VARIABILITY. THIS UNCERTAINTY IS AMPLIFIED BY THE MODELS
FORECASTING CUTOFF LOWS...WHICH IS AN ITEM THEY ALL HAVE A LOWER
THAN AVERAGE SKILL AT FORECASTING.

FOR TEMPERATURES TUESDAY-FRIDAY THE SUPER BLEND WAS USED. FOR NOW
FORECASTING BELOW NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL IN THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS THROUGH TODAY.

VFR. NE WINDS UNDER 10KT BCMG SE AFTER DAYBREAK. SEA BREEZES THIS
AFTN WITH SE-S WINDS AROUND 10KT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUN THROUGH WED...
.SAT OVERNIGHT...VFR.
.SUN-MON...RAIN WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS. ESE/E WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO
25 KT POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFT FOR CITY/COASTAL TERMINALS.
.TUE...VFR.
.WED...CHANCE OF RAIN WITH WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH WITH LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE THAT PARTS OF THE OCEAN WATERS
STILL HAVE SEAS AT 5 FT FOR A FEW HOURS PAST THE CURRENT SCA
EXPIRATION TIME OF 10Z THIS MORNING. GUIDANCE SHOWS SEAS DIMINISHING
SLIGHTLY TODAY AND WINDS SHOULDN`T BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE WIND
WAVES OF 5 FT...SO WILL MAKE NO EXTENSIONS TO THE SCA AT THIS TIME.
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THEN CONTINUE FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS THEN PICK UP DURING THE AFTERNOON
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STORM.

LOOKS LIKE SCA WILL BE NEEDED FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AT LEAST ON THE
OCEAN...AND MAYBE FOR THE SOUND. A BETTER CHANCE FOR 25KT GUSTS ON
THE SOUND AND PERHAPS FOR THE HARBOR AND BAYS ARRIVES SUNDAY NIGHT.
SCA CONDITIONS OTHERWISE ON THE OCEAN THROUGH AT LEAST
MONDAY...AND POSSIBLY INTO A PORTION OF MONDAY NIGHT AS SEAS
SLOWLY SUBSIDE.

A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT THEN MAINTAINS SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL
WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
IT SHOULD BE DRY THROUGH AT LEAST THIS EVENING.

FROM AROUND 3/4-1 INCH OF RAIN IS FORECAST FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY EVENING...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. AT THIS
TIME THERE IS A LOW RISK OF PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS FOR
AREAS EXPERIENCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL DURING
THE MIDDLE TO LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY
     THIS MORNING FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JC
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 300733
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
333 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUES FOR ONE MORE DAY TODAY.
UNSETTLED AND COOL WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. A BRIEF DRYING TREND TUESDAY
WHICH MAY LAST INTO WEDNESDAY...THEN MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR
LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
BRINGING ONE MORE DAY OF SUN AND DRY WEATHER.  OVERCAST SKIES WILL
GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO SUN...ALLOWING FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY
AWAY FROM THE COAST. ONSHORE SOUTHEAST TO EASTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.  FARTHER
INLAND...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW 60S TO MID 60S IN THE
CONNECTICUT VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS
WILL ALLOW CLOUDS TO START MOVING BACK INTO THE AREA AND SKIES WILL
BECOME OVERCAST.  EXPECT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA.

SUNDAY...CHILLY AND WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. LOW
PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES WILL SEND RAIN INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  RAIN WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND CONNECTICUT
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...REACHING THE EAST COAST AROUND NOON. EASTERLY
WINDS AND OVERCAST SKIES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL
FOR THE FIRST OF MAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50.
WITH RAIN AND CLOUDS DELAYED UNTIL THE AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS...TEMPERATURES MAY CLIMB INTO THE MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* PERIODS OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
* DRY AND SEASONABLE TUE...POSSIBLY LASTING INTO WEDNESDAY
* MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE LATE NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW...
AMPLIFIED PATTERN DEVELOPS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS ANOMALOUS MID
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS NORTHERN ROCKIES AND WESTERN CANADA WITH
DOWNSTREAM TROF OVER THE GT LAKES. MODELS IN AGREEMENT ON
AMPLIFICATION OF THIS TROF LATE NEXT WEEK WITH CUTOFF LOW EVENTUALLY
DEVELOPING...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON EVOLUTION AND LOCATION OF THIS
CUTOFF AND SUBSEQUENT SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT SOMEWHERE ALONG THE EAST
COAST WHICH WILL DETERMINE SENSIBLE WEATHER. GENERAL THEME WILL BE A
RETURN TO UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE NEXT WEEK BUT DETAILS ARE VERY
UNCERTAIN.

DETAILS...

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...
OVERRUNNING OF WARM FRONT S OF NEW ENG WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND MODEST
FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL LEAD TO PERIODS OF RAIN SUN NIGHT.  MORE
COMPLEX SCENARIO UNFOLDING MON AS APPROACHING SHORTWAVE LEADS TO A
PRIMARY LOW MOVING TO THE WEST WHILE SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS OVER OR
SOUTH OF NEW ENG. NAM IS OVERDONE WITH HEAVY RAINFALL MON DUE TO ITS
DEPICTION OF A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WHICH SEEMS UNLIKELY. EXPECT
MAINLY LIGHT RAIN TO LINGER INTO MON...THEN TAPERING OFF MON
AFTERNOON AS BEST FORCING LIFTS TO THE NE. TRICKY TEMP FORECAST FOR
MON WHICH WILL DEPEND ON EXACTLY WHERE SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS AS
THERE WILL BE A SURGE OF MILDER AIR TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW. THERE
WILL LIKELY BE A SHARP NORTH TO SOUTH TEMP GRADIENT ACROSS SNE.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...
DRY WEATHER SHOULD RETURN TUE AS THE COLUMN DRIES WITH TEMPS
REBOUNDING TO NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
DRY WEATHER MAY PERSIST INTO WED BUT NOT AS CONFIDENT AS MID LEVEL
TROF WILL BE AMPLIFYING TO THE WEST WITH SFC WAVE LURKING TO THE
SOUTH. LOW CONFIDENCE TEMP FORECAST FOR WED AS GFS INDICATING SW
FLOW AND TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES MILDER THAN ECMWF WHICH HAS EASTERLY
FLOW.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
LOOKS LIKE AN UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH CUTOFF LOW WEST OR SW OF NEW ENG
AND SFC LOW SOMEWHERE NEAR THE EAST COAST. HOWEVER...LOW CONFIDENCE
ON DETAILS AS THERE IS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD AMONG THE DETERMINISTIC
AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REGARDING INTENSITY AND PLACEMENT OF THE SFC
LOW WHICH WILL IMPACT TEMPS AND SENSIBLE WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.  RAIN MOVES INTO W
MA/CT BETWEEN 09-12Z SUNDAY REACHING THE EAST COAST BETWEEN 15-18Z.
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE RAIN.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS IN PERIODS OF RAIN.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR WITH
LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS START TO INCREASE LATE SUNDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES THE WATERS.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

SUNDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EASTERLY WINDS MAY GUST TO 25
KT FOR A TIME WITH BUILDING SEAS. REDUCED VSBYS IN RAIN AND PATCHY
FOG.

MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE ON WINDS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK OF
LOW PRES. ROUGH SEAS...ESPECIALLY EASTERN WATERS. VSBYS REDUCED AT
TIMES IN RAIN AND FOG.

TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LIGHT WINDS BUT LEFTOVER ROUGH SEAS WILL
SLOWLY SUBSIDE.

WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST. LOW PRESSURE TO THE
SOUTH MAY RESULT IN WINDS BEING MORE EASTERLY THAN WHAT IS
CURRENTLY FORECAST.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG




000
FXUS61 KALY 300553
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
153 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
OUR REGION WILL BE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC
AND AN EAST-WEST FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. SATURDAY
THE HIGH WILL DOMINATE WITH FAIR COOL CONDITIONS IN MUCH OF THE
REGION. SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY THE FRONT WILL SURGE TOWARD US
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE ATLANTIC COAST.
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TO START THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SHOWERS ARE MOVING OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST AS THE SHORT WAVE
HEADS OFFSHORE. MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
EXPECTING LOWS TO BOTTOM OUT FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S WITH
WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS THE AREA.

A VERY WEAK BUBBLE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY FOR
SATURDAY PROVIDING OUR ENTIRE REGION WITH SOME SUNSHINE...DRY
CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THE LAST DAY OF
APRIL. THAT TRANSLATES TO HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN THE
VALLEYS...55-60 HIGHER TERRAIN. A LIGHT NORTH WIND WILL PREVAIL
AROUND 5 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AT 500 HPA A COMPLEX PATTERN IS SETTING UP THAT WILL SET REGION
UP FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF COOL...WET UNSETTLED WEATHER. IT STARTS
WITH A FLAT RIDGE ON THE E SEABOARD AS A CUT OFF LIFTS EASTWARD
SHEARS OFF IN THE MID MISS VLY INTO THIS RIDGE. ANOTHER 500HPA
SHORT WV DROPS SE OUT OF ONT...AND OVERALL THE RIDGE FLATTENS.
WITH A MAJOR E-W THERMAL RIBBON IN THE OHIO VALLEY TO MID ATLC
COAST..THE COMBINATION OF INCRG CVA...ISENTROPIC LIFT AND A SFC
LOW WILL ORGANIZE. THE LOW WILL PROPAGATE ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT IS ALSO SHIFTING N...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST.

AS A RESULT OVERRUNNING CLOUDS AND -RN WILL OVERSPREAD THE RGN SAT
NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. BY 12UTC MONDAY ONLY A SHORT WV
REMAINS IN A FLAT WESTERLY FLOW BUT ITS ENOUGH TO GRADUALLY
DEEPEN A COASTAL LOW ON THE MID ATLC COAST. PCPN WONT DIMINISH OR
END TILL LATE MONDAY WHEN THE 500HPA SHORT WV FINALLY EXITS. ONLY
A WK SFC HIGH WILL FOLLOW AND CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH OR
MAY LINGER MON NT.

OTHER THAN SOME VARIATIONS IN QPF..AND A SLIGHTLY FURTHER N GEM
TRACK THE GEM/NAM/GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PERIOD. IN
SHORT SVRL DAYS OF CLOUDY COOL...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...
PERIODS OF NEEDED RAIN...LIKELY ON THE ORDER OF 1-2 INCHES TOTAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MDL SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT TUESDAY WITH A SERIES OF SHORT WVS
DIVING SE IN ONT...THE UPR MISS VLY AND A FLAT RIDGE ALONG THE
EAST COAST AND WEAK SFC HIGH OVER NE. CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH BUT
WHETHER IT CLEARS OR BCMS PC IS QUESTIONABLE. TEMPS WILL BE NR
NORMALS.

FROM TUES NT THRU THE END OF EFP THE MDLS SPREAD IN SVRL
DIRECTIONS. THE GFS/GEM DIG A STRONG SHORT WV INTO THE S
APPALACHIANS...WITH CYCLOGENESIS ON THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT TUESDAY
NIGHT...WHICH DEEPENS...AND THE OTHER SHORT WVS PHASE WITH THIS
SYSTEM OVER THE MID ATLC. THE SFC LOW MOVES NE AND RESULTS IN A
CLASSIC INSIDE THE BENCHMARK NOR EASTER...SOAKING RAIN
DIMINISHING TO -SHRA THUR. THE OVER PLAY OF PHASING IN THESE MDLS
IS ALWAYS SUSPECT.

THE ECMWF KEEPS THE ENERGY STREAMS SEPARATE AND BRINGS A CDFNT
ACROSS THE RGN WED NT AS N BRANCH OF 500HPA TROF DIVES ACROSS THE
NE USA THU. MEANWHILE THE SOUTHERN STREAM STAYS WELL SOUTH OF
FCA...AND COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS WILL BE WELL S OF RGN IN ECMWF
SCENARIO. WPC ALSO FOLLOWS ECMWF IN ITS GUID FOR WED. BY THU ALL
GUID HAS SOME KINDA OF CUT OFF OR TROF OVER THE NE ALTHOUGH THE
EVOLUTION WAS DIFFERENT...AND CLOUDS AND -SHRA A GOOD BET.

CONFIDENCE IN MORE WET CLOUDY DAMP WEATHER IS GOOD FOR THURS...AND
FOR A DRY DAY TUESDAY. WED IS THE DAY WITH A MODERATE DEGREE OF
UNCERTAINTY. OTHERWISE THE SHORT DESCRIPTION IS ALOT OF
CLOUDS...UNSETTLED WITH NR TO BLO NORMAL TEMPS. FCST WILL USE
SUPERBLEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS PA AND SRN NY THIS MORNING
WITH A FEW SHOWERS.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BACK IN LATE
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.  CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST.

CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY VFR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXCEPT FOR
KPOU/KPSF WHERE SOME HIGH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN THE 4-5SM AND 2.5-3.0
KFT AGL RANGE MAY IMPACT THE TERMINALS BTWN 08-12Z/SAT. CIGS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 3.5-6 KFT AGL RANGE THIS MORNING BEFORE
SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC ANTICYCLONE BUILDS IN.  CIGS WILL
GENERALLY BE SCT-BKN IN THE 3.5-6 KFT AGL RANGE WITH SCT-BKN CIRRUS.
THE CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER A BIT TOWARDS 22Z/SAT TO 01Z/SUN
AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 3-7 KTS THIS
MORNING.  THEY WILL BE FROM THE SW TO W AT 3-6 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AT
KPOU/KPSF....AND E/NE AT KGFL/KALB.  THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM
TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO MAJOR FIRE WEATHER RELATED ISSUES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

RAINFALL AMTS OF ONE TENTH...TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH ARE
EXPECTED THIS EVENING FROM THE SE CATSKILLS INTO THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT.

SATURDAY WILL BE DRY BUT RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED ONLY DROP INTO THE
30S IN THE VALLEYS/40S HIGHER TERRAIN. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
MAINLY OUT OF THE NORTH UNDER 10 MPH.

IT LOOKS AS IF OCCASIONAL RAIN WILL MOVE IN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY AS TWO LOW PRESSURES PASS TO OUR SOUTH...AND A TROUGH
DIGS IN FROM ALOFT. MOST AREAS LOOK TO RECEIVE A QUARTER INCH OR
MORE OF RAINFALL. RH VALUES WILL LIKELY REMAIN ELEVATED (OVER 60
PERCENT) BOTH DAYS.

TUESDAY IS LIKELY TO BE DRY WITH LIGHT WIND AND SOME BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE. RH VALUES WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE 30 PERCENT.

THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL RETURN LATER IN THE WORKWEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH QPF AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ANTICIPATED. THIS
RAINFALL WILL BE BENEFICIAL DUE TO DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS FOR
THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED LATER IN
THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IAA/KL/SNYDER
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER




000
FXUS61 KALY 300553
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
153 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
OUR REGION WILL BE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC
AND AN EAST-WEST FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. SATURDAY
THE HIGH WILL DOMINATE WITH FAIR COOL CONDITIONS IN MUCH OF THE
REGION. SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY THE FRONT WILL SURGE TOWARD US
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE ATLANTIC COAST.
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TO START THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SHOWERS ARE MOVING OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST AS THE SHORT WAVE
HEADS OFFSHORE. MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
EXPECTING LOWS TO BOTTOM OUT FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S WITH
WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS THE AREA.

A VERY WEAK BUBBLE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY FOR
SATURDAY PROVIDING OUR ENTIRE REGION WITH SOME SUNSHINE...DRY
CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THE LAST DAY OF
APRIL. THAT TRANSLATES TO HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN THE
VALLEYS...55-60 HIGHER TERRAIN. A LIGHT NORTH WIND WILL PREVAIL
AROUND 5 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AT 500 HPA A COMPLEX PATTERN IS SETTING UP THAT WILL SET REGION
UP FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF COOL...WET UNSETTLED WEATHER. IT STARTS
WITH A FLAT RIDGE ON THE E SEABOARD AS A CUT OFF LIFTS EASTWARD
SHEARS OFF IN THE MID MISS VLY INTO THIS RIDGE. ANOTHER 500HPA
SHORT WV DROPS SE OUT OF ONT...AND OVERALL THE RIDGE FLATTENS.
WITH A MAJOR E-W THERMAL RIBBON IN THE OHIO VALLEY TO MID ATLC
COAST..THE COMBINATION OF INCRG CVA...ISENTROPIC LIFT AND A SFC
LOW WILL ORGANIZE. THE LOW WILL PROPAGATE ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT IS ALSO SHIFTING N...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST.

AS A RESULT OVERRUNNING CLOUDS AND -RN WILL OVERSPREAD THE RGN SAT
NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. BY 12UTC MONDAY ONLY A SHORT WV
REMAINS IN A FLAT WESTERLY FLOW BUT ITS ENOUGH TO GRADUALLY
DEEPEN A COASTAL LOW ON THE MID ATLC COAST. PCPN WONT DIMINISH OR
END TILL LATE MONDAY WHEN THE 500HPA SHORT WV FINALLY EXITS. ONLY
A WK SFC HIGH WILL FOLLOW AND CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH OR
MAY LINGER MON NT.

OTHER THAN SOME VARIATIONS IN QPF..AND A SLIGHTLY FURTHER N GEM
TRACK THE GEM/NAM/GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PERIOD. IN
SHORT SVRL DAYS OF CLOUDY COOL...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...
PERIODS OF NEEDED RAIN...LIKELY ON THE ORDER OF 1-2 INCHES TOTAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MDL SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT TUESDAY WITH A SERIES OF SHORT WVS
DIVING SE IN ONT...THE UPR MISS VLY AND A FLAT RIDGE ALONG THE
EAST COAST AND WEAK SFC HIGH OVER NE. CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH BUT
WHETHER IT CLEARS OR BCMS PC IS QUESTIONABLE. TEMPS WILL BE NR
NORMALS.

FROM TUES NT THRU THE END OF EFP THE MDLS SPREAD IN SVRL
DIRECTIONS. THE GFS/GEM DIG A STRONG SHORT WV INTO THE S
APPALACHIANS...WITH CYCLOGENESIS ON THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT TUESDAY
NIGHT...WHICH DEEPENS...AND THE OTHER SHORT WVS PHASE WITH THIS
SYSTEM OVER THE MID ATLC. THE SFC LOW MOVES NE AND RESULTS IN A
CLASSIC INSIDE THE BENCHMARK NOR EASTER...SOAKING RAIN
DIMINISHING TO -SHRA THUR. THE OVER PLAY OF PHASING IN THESE MDLS
IS ALWAYS SUSPECT.

THE ECMWF KEEPS THE ENERGY STREAMS SEPARATE AND BRINGS A CDFNT
ACROSS THE RGN WED NT AS N BRANCH OF 500HPA TROF DIVES ACROSS THE
NE USA THU. MEANWHILE THE SOUTHERN STREAM STAYS WELL SOUTH OF
FCA...AND COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS WILL BE WELL S OF RGN IN ECMWF
SCENARIO. WPC ALSO FOLLOWS ECMWF IN ITS GUID FOR WED. BY THU ALL
GUID HAS SOME KINDA OF CUT OFF OR TROF OVER THE NE ALTHOUGH THE
EVOLUTION WAS DIFFERENT...AND CLOUDS AND -SHRA A GOOD BET.

CONFIDENCE IN MORE WET CLOUDY DAMP WEATHER IS GOOD FOR THURS...AND
FOR A DRY DAY TUESDAY. WED IS THE DAY WITH A MODERATE DEGREE OF
UNCERTAINTY. OTHERWISE THE SHORT DESCRIPTION IS ALOT OF
CLOUDS...UNSETTLED WITH NR TO BLO NORMAL TEMPS. FCST WILL USE
SUPERBLEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS PA AND SRN NY THIS MORNING
WITH A FEW SHOWERS.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BACK IN LATE
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.  CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST.

CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY VFR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXCEPT FOR
KPOU/KPSF WHERE SOME HIGH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN THE 4-5SM AND 2.5-3.0
KFT AGL RANGE MAY IMPACT THE TERMINALS BTWN 08-12Z/SAT. CIGS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 3.5-6 KFT AGL RANGE THIS MORNING BEFORE
SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC ANTICYCLONE BUILDS IN.  CIGS WILL
GENERALLY BE SCT-BKN IN THE 3.5-6 KFT AGL RANGE WITH SCT-BKN CIRRUS.
THE CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER A BIT TOWARDS 22Z/SAT TO 01Z/SUN
AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 3-7 KTS THIS
MORNING.  THEY WILL BE FROM THE SW TO W AT 3-6 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AT
KPOU/KPSF....AND E/NE AT KGFL/KALB.  THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM
TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO MAJOR FIRE WEATHER RELATED ISSUES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

RAINFALL AMTS OF ONE TENTH...TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH ARE
EXPECTED THIS EVENING FROM THE SE CATSKILLS INTO THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT.

SATURDAY WILL BE DRY BUT RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED ONLY DROP INTO THE
30S IN THE VALLEYS/40S HIGHER TERRAIN. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
MAINLY OUT OF THE NORTH UNDER 10 MPH.

IT LOOKS AS IF OCCASIONAL RAIN WILL MOVE IN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY AS TWO LOW PRESSURES PASS TO OUR SOUTH...AND A TROUGH
DIGS IN FROM ALOFT. MOST AREAS LOOK TO RECEIVE A QUARTER INCH OR
MORE OF RAINFALL. RH VALUES WILL LIKELY REMAIN ELEVATED (OVER 60
PERCENT) BOTH DAYS.

TUESDAY IS LIKELY TO BE DRY WITH LIGHT WIND AND SOME BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE. RH VALUES WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE 30 PERCENT.

THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL RETURN LATER IN THE WORKWEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH QPF AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ANTICIPATED. THIS
RAINFALL WILL BE BENEFICIAL DUE TO DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS FOR
THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED LATER IN
THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IAA/KL/SNYDER
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER




000
FXUS61 KOKX 300537
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
137 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
SATURDAY. A STATIONARY FRONT SETS UP SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH LOW
PRESSURE RIDING ALONG IT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY
BUILDS ON TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE UNSETTLED
WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN ZONES FOR THE OVERNIGHT.
EXPECTING THESE SHOWERS TO SHIFT OUT OF THE AREA TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
CLOUDY OTHERWISE WITH PLENTY OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH...WITH PERSISTENT E/SE
FLOW.

PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED...BUT THE EASTERLY FLOW AND COOL
AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.
EXPECTING HIGH/S IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. WARMEST READINGS
INLAND AWAY FROM THE WATER/MARINE INFLUENCE.

UPPER WEAK RIDGE FLATTENS AS UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY MAKES IT/S
WAY EASTWARD SAT AND SAT NIGHT. LOWER AND MID LEVEL WAA BEGINS
LATER AT NIGHT.

THE SFC HIGH GIVES WAY TO AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT SAT NIGHT.
CLOUDS INCREASE AND RAIN ENCROACHES FROM THE WEST AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES. WESTERN LOCALES LIKELY SEE SOME OF THIS RAIN BEFORE
DAYBREAK...WHEREAS EASTERN ZONES MAY NOT. WILL LAYER POPS
ACCORDINGLY.

CLOUDS/EAST FLOW SHOULD PREVENT LARGE DISPARITIES IN OVERNIGHT
TEMPS...GENERALLY IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY PERIOD WITH A STATIONARY FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA AND LOW
PRESSURE RIDING ALONG IT. SW FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A MOIST
ATMOSPHERE AND SEVERAL SHORTWAVES IN THE FLOW AS WELL AS LIFT FROM
WARM ADVECTION. WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALSO IS PROGGED TO FORM ON THE
FRONT AND PASS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BRING A MUCH NEEDED STEADY SOAKING RAINFALL TO
THE REGION.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO RETURN ON TUESDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE TRI-STATE.

CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST DETAILS IS GREATLY REDUCED FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK. A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER WESTERN NOAM SHOULD LEAD TO
RENEWED TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. UPPER LOW
OVER SE CANADA HELPS DIG THE TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY BUT THE DETAILS
VARY GREATLY BETWEEN THE VARIOUS DETERMINISTIC MODELS.
THERE IS ALSO CONSIDERABLE SPREAD AMONG THE ENSEMBLES WITH SOUTHERN
STREAM AND NORTHERN STREAM INTERACTIONS AS WELL AS TIMING OF ENERGY
WITHIN THE TROUGH. EVEN WITH THESE DIFFERENCES...THERE IS STILL A
SIGNAL FOR A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SE OR MID
ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. THE 12Z ECMWF IS SLOWER AND
CUTS THE TROUGH OFF OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WHICH COULD KEEP UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS INTO FRIDAY. HAVE GONE WITH NO HIGHER THAN LOW CHANCE POP
THIS TIME PERIOD AS CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW IN SPECIFIC
DETAILS...BUT POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAINY
CONDITIONS LATE IN THE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE WELL NORMAL IN THE LOWER 50S DUE TO A
NE FLOW AND RAIN. IT IS POSSIBLE SOME LOCATIONS STRUGGLE TO GET OUT
OF THE 40S. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL CONTINUE BELOW NORMAL...BUT SEVERAL
DEGREES WARMER THAN SUNDAY. NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THEN
FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...BUT COULD BE HELD DOWN DEPENDING
ON THE POSSIBLE COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS THROUGH TODAY.

VFR. NE WINDS UNDER 10KT BCMG SE AFTER DAYBREAK. SEA BREEZES THIS
AFTN WITH SE-S WINDS AROUND 10KT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUN THROUGH WED...
.SAT OVERNIGHT...VFR.
.SUN-MON...RAIN WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS. ESE/E WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO
25 KT POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFT FOR CITY/COASTAL TERMINALS.
.TUE...VFR.
.WED...CHANCE OF RAIN WITH WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH A BRIEF INCREASE IN WINDS EARLIER...SEAS ON THE OCEAN HAVE
INCREASED TO 5 TO 7 FEET. LATEST WAVE GUIDANCE IN AGREEMENT IN
KEEPING ELEVATED OCEAN SEAS THROUGH THE NIGHT TONIGHT...AND QUITE
POSSIBLY INTO THE MORNING SAT.

THE SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THE
NIGHT...ENDING AT 6 AM. THIS MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FURTHER INTO
THE MORNING HOURS...BUT NOT TOO CONFIDENT IN THAT AT THIS TIME.

EASTERLY WINDS REMAIN WELL BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THROUGH SAT.

INCREASING NE FLOW ON SUNDAY WILL BRING THE LIKELIHOOD OF SCA CONDS
ON ALL COASTAL WATERS. OCEAN SEAS BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT AS WELL.
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS RETURN TO NEAR SHORE WATERS ON SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT
5 FT SEAS COULD LINGER INTO MONDAY. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS FORECAST ON
ALL WATERS TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS. CONDITIONS
COULD APPROACH SCA LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY DEPENDING ON LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL BE LESS THAN 1/4 INCH.

ONE HALF TO ONE INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE LATE SAT NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
THERE IS ALSO A LOW CHANCE FOR ANOTHER SOAKING RAINFALL EVENT LATE
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY
     THIS MORNING FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...DS




000
FXUS61 KALY 300241
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1041 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
OUR REGION WILL BE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO
AND QUEBEC AND AN EAST-WEST FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THE NIGHT...PARTICULARLY
IN THE SOUTHERN AREAS. SATURDAY THE HIGH WILL DOMINATE WITH FAIR
COOL CONDITIONS IN MUCH OF THE REGION. SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
THE FRONT WILL SURGE TOWARD US AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TO
START THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO
TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS NORTHEAST PA. THE COMBINATION OF MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS...AND SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT HAS ALLOWED BANDS OF
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN TO TRANSLATE FROM THE SE CATSKILLS INTO THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND MUCH OF LITCHFIELD CO...PARTICULARLY
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS. FARTHER N AND E...ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND
SW VT.

THE RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS SHOULD GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM W
TO E BETWEEN 11 PM AND 1 AM. MEANWHILE...THE ISOLATED
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES MAY PERSIST ACROSS THE CAPITAL
REGION...BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN VT UNTIL 2 AM. EVENTUALLY...AS
THE SHORTWAVE MOVES FARTHER EAST...AND FORCING ACROSS THE REGION
DECREASES...THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL END. MID LEVEL CLOUDS MAY
LINGER...HOWEVER...UNTIL OR AFTER DAYBREAK...EXCEPT FOR THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS WHERE SOME BREAKS MAY DEVELOP.

TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP AS MUCH AS THEY COULD DUE TO PLENTY OF
CLOUDS AND SOME ADDED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...GENERALLY BOTTOMING
OUT FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF
5-10 MPH SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN BACK TO THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST
AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT REMAIN LIGHT...GENERALLY UNDER 10 MPH.

A VERY WEAK BUBBLE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY FOR
SATURDAY PROVIDING OUR ENTIRE REGION WITH SOME SUNSHINE...DRY
CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THE LAST DAY OF
APRIL. THAT TRANSLATES TO HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN THE
VALLEYS....55-60 HIGHER TERRAIN. A LIGHT NORTH WIND WILL PREVAIL
AROUND 5 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AT 500 HPA A COMPLEX PATTERN IS SETTING UP THAT WILL SET REGION
UP FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF COOL...WET UNSETTLED WEATHER. IT STARTS
WITH A FLAT RIDGE ON THE E SEABOARD AS A CUT OFF LIFTS EASTWARD
SHEARS OFF IN THE MID MISS VLY INTO THIS RIDGE. ANOTHER 500HPA
SHORT WV DROPS SE OUT OF ONT...AND OVERALL THE RIDGE FLATTENS.
WITH A MAJOR E-W THERMAL RIBBON IN THE OHIO VALLEY TO MID ATLC
COAST..THE COMBINATION OF INCRG CVA...ISENTROPIC LIFT AND A SFC
LOW WILL ORGANIZE. THE LOW WILL PROPAGATE ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT IS ALSO SHIFTING N...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST.

AS A RESULT OVERRUNNING CLOUDS AND -RN WILL OVERSPREAD THE RGN SAT
NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. BY 12UTC MONDAY ONLY A SHORT WV
REMAINS IN A FLAT WESTERLY FLOW BUT ITS ENOUGH TO GRADUALLY
DEEPEN A COASTAL LOW ON THE MID ATLC COAST. PCPN WONT DIMINISH OR
END TILL LATE MONDAY WHEN THE 500HPA SHORT WV FINALLY EXITS. ONLY
A WK SFC HIGH WILL FOLLOW AND CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH OR
MAY LINGER MON NT.

OTHER THAN SOME VARIATIONS IN QPF..AND A SLIGHTLY FURTHER N GEM
TRACK THE GEM/NAM/GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PERIOD. IN
SHORT SVRL DAYS OF CLOUDY COOL...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...
PERIODS OF NEEDED RAIN...LIKELY ON THE ORDER OF 1-2 INCHES TOTAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MDL SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT TUESDAY WITH A SERIES OF SHORT WVS
DIVING SE IN ONT...THE UPR MISS VLY AND A FLAT RIDGE ALONG THE
EAST COAST AND WEAK SFC HIGH OVER NE. CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH BUT
WHETHER IT CLEARS OR BCMS PC IS QUESTIONABLE. TEMPS WILL BE NR
NORMALS.

FROM TUES NT THRU THE END OF EFP THE MDLS SPREAD IN SVRL
DIRECTIONS. THE GFS/GEM DIG A STRONG SHORT WV INTO THE S
APPALACHIANS...WITH CYCLOGENESIS ON THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT TUESDAY
NIGHT...WHICH DEEPENS...AND THE OTHER SHORT WVS PHASE WITH THIS
SYSTEM OVER THE MID ATLC. THE SFC LOW MOVES NE AND RESULTS IN A
CLASSIC INSIDE THE BENCHMARK NOR EASTER...SOAKING RAIN
DIMINISHING TO -SHRA THUR. THE OVER PLAY OF PHASING IN THESE MDLS
IS ALWAYS SUSPECT.

THE ECMWF KEEPS THE ENERGY STREAMS SEPARATE AND BRINGS A CDFNT
ACROSS THE RGN WED NT AS N BRANCH OF 500HPA TROF DIVES ACROSS THE
NE USA THU. MEANWHILE THE SOUTHERN STREAM STAYS WELL SOUTH OF
FCA...AND COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS WILL BE WELL S OF RGN IN ECMWF
SCENARIO. WPC ALSO FOLLOWS ECMWF IN ITS GUID FOR WED. BY THU ALL
GUID HAS SOME KINDA OF CUT OFF OR TROF OVER THE NE ALTHOUGH THE
EVOLUTION WAS DIFFERENT...AND CLOUDS AND -SHRA A GOOD BET.

CONFIDENCE IN MORE WET CLOUDY DAMP WEATHER IS GOOD FOR THURS...AND
FOR A DRY DAY TUESDAY. WED IS THE DAY WITH A MODERATE DEGREE OF
UNCERTAINTY. OTHERWISE THE SHORT DESCRIPTION IS ALOT OF
CLOUDS...UNSETTLED WITH NR TO BLO NORMAL TEMPS. FCST WILL USE
SUPERBLEND.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA
TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING PLENTY OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT...AND ALSO SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE KALB/KPOU AND KPSF
TERMINALS THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...ENDING AT 00Z/SUN. HOWEVER...SOME LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS COULD ALLOW VSBYS/CIGS TO BRIEFLY DIP INTO THE MVFR RANGE
FOR A PERIOD THIS EVENING AT KPOU. ALSO...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
ANY GROUND FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUD FORMATION AFTER ANY RAIN TAPERS
OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT...ESP IF ANY BREAKS IN THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS
DEVELOP. DID NOT INCLUDE MENTION OF FOG AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL
NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS IN CASE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG
INCREASES...ESP BETWEEN 08Z-12Z/SAT.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KT THIS EVENING...THEN
TREND INTO THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AT SIMILAR
SPEEDS. ON SATURDAY...WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE NORTHEAST TO
EAST AT 5-10 KT...ALTHOUGH MAY TREND INTO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
AT KPOU...AND WEST/SOUTHWEST AT KPSF BY AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO MAJOR FIRE WEATHER RELATED ISSUES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

RAINFALL AMTS OF ONE TENTH...TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH ARE
EXPECTED THIS EVENING FROM THE SE CATSKILLS INTO THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT.

SATURDAY WILL BE DRY BUT RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED ONLY DROP INTO THE
30S IN THE VALLEYS/40S HIGHER TERRAIN. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
MAINLY OUT OF THE NORTH UNDER 10 MPH.

IT LOOKS AS IF OCCASIONAL RAIN WILL MOVE IN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY AS TWO LOW PRESSURES PASS TO OUR SOUTH...AND A TROUGH
DIGS IN FROM ALOFT. MOST AREAS LOOK TO RECEIVE A QUARTER INCH OR
MORE OF RAINFALL. RH VALUES WILL LIKELY REMAIN ELEVATED (OVER 60
PERCENT) BOTH DAYS.

TUESDAY IS LIKELY TO BE DRY WITH LIGHT WIND AND SOME BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE. RH VALUES WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE 30 PERCENT.

THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL RETURN LATER IN THE WORKWEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH QPF AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ANTICIPATED. THIS
RAINFALL WILL BE BENEFICIAL DUE TO DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS FOR
THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED LATER IN
THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...KL/SNYDER
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...HWJIV/KL
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER




000
FXUS61 KALY 300241
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1041 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
OUR REGION WILL BE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO
AND QUEBEC AND AN EAST-WEST FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THE NIGHT...PARTICULARLY
IN THE SOUTHERN AREAS. SATURDAY THE HIGH WILL DOMINATE WITH FAIR
COOL CONDITIONS IN MUCH OF THE REGION. SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
THE FRONT WILL SURGE TOWARD US AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TO
START THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO
TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS NORTHEAST PA. THE COMBINATION OF MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS...AND SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT HAS ALLOWED BANDS OF
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN TO TRANSLATE FROM THE SE CATSKILLS INTO THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND MUCH OF LITCHFIELD CO...PARTICULARLY
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS. FARTHER N AND E...ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND
SW VT.

THE RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS SHOULD GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM W
TO E BETWEEN 11 PM AND 1 AM. MEANWHILE...THE ISOLATED
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES MAY PERSIST ACROSS THE CAPITAL
REGION...BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN VT UNTIL 2 AM. EVENTUALLY...AS
THE SHORTWAVE MOVES FARTHER EAST...AND FORCING ACROSS THE REGION
DECREASES...THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL END. MID LEVEL CLOUDS MAY
LINGER...HOWEVER...UNTIL OR AFTER DAYBREAK...EXCEPT FOR THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS WHERE SOME BREAKS MAY DEVELOP.

TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP AS MUCH AS THEY COULD DUE TO PLENTY OF
CLOUDS AND SOME ADDED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...GENERALLY BOTTOMING
OUT FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF
5-10 MPH SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN BACK TO THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST
AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT REMAIN LIGHT...GENERALLY UNDER 10 MPH.

A VERY WEAK BUBBLE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY FOR
SATURDAY PROVIDING OUR ENTIRE REGION WITH SOME SUNSHINE...DRY
CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THE LAST DAY OF
APRIL. THAT TRANSLATES TO HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN THE
VALLEYS....55-60 HIGHER TERRAIN. A LIGHT NORTH WIND WILL PREVAIL
AROUND 5 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AT 500 HPA A COMPLEX PATTERN IS SETTING UP THAT WILL SET REGION
UP FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF COOL...WET UNSETTLED WEATHER. IT STARTS
WITH A FLAT RIDGE ON THE E SEABOARD AS A CUT OFF LIFTS EASTWARD
SHEARS OFF IN THE MID MISS VLY INTO THIS RIDGE. ANOTHER 500HPA
SHORT WV DROPS SE OUT OF ONT...AND OVERALL THE RIDGE FLATTENS.
WITH A MAJOR E-W THERMAL RIBBON IN THE OHIO VALLEY TO MID ATLC
COAST..THE COMBINATION OF INCRG CVA...ISENTROPIC LIFT AND A SFC
LOW WILL ORGANIZE. THE LOW WILL PROPAGATE ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT IS ALSO SHIFTING N...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST.

AS A RESULT OVERRUNNING CLOUDS AND -RN WILL OVERSPREAD THE RGN SAT
NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. BY 12UTC MONDAY ONLY A SHORT WV
REMAINS IN A FLAT WESTERLY FLOW BUT ITS ENOUGH TO GRADUALLY
DEEPEN A COASTAL LOW ON THE MID ATLC COAST. PCPN WONT DIMINISH OR
END TILL LATE MONDAY WHEN THE 500HPA SHORT WV FINALLY EXITS. ONLY
A WK SFC HIGH WILL FOLLOW AND CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH OR
MAY LINGER MON NT.

OTHER THAN SOME VARIATIONS IN QPF..AND A SLIGHTLY FURTHER N GEM
TRACK THE GEM/NAM/GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PERIOD. IN
SHORT SVRL DAYS OF CLOUDY COOL...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...
PERIODS OF NEEDED RAIN...LIKELY ON THE ORDER OF 1-2 INCHES TOTAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MDL SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT TUESDAY WITH A SERIES OF SHORT WVS
DIVING SE IN ONT...THE UPR MISS VLY AND A FLAT RIDGE ALONG THE
EAST COAST AND WEAK SFC HIGH OVER NE. CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH BUT
WHETHER IT CLEARS OR BCMS PC IS QUESTIONABLE. TEMPS WILL BE NR
NORMALS.

FROM TUES NT THRU THE END OF EFP THE MDLS SPREAD IN SVRL
DIRECTIONS. THE GFS/GEM DIG A STRONG SHORT WV INTO THE S
APPALACHIANS...WITH CYCLOGENESIS ON THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT TUESDAY
NIGHT...WHICH DEEPENS...AND THE OTHER SHORT WVS PHASE WITH THIS
SYSTEM OVER THE MID ATLC. THE SFC LOW MOVES NE AND RESULTS IN A
CLASSIC INSIDE THE BENCHMARK NOR EASTER...SOAKING RAIN
DIMINISHING TO -SHRA THUR. THE OVER PLAY OF PHASING IN THESE MDLS
IS ALWAYS SUSPECT.

THE ECMWF KEEPS THE ENERGY STREAMS SEPARATE AND BRINGS A CDFNT
ACROSS THE RGN WED NT AS N BRANCH OF 500HPA TROF DIVES ACROSS THE
NE USA THU. MEANWHILE THE SOUTHERN STREAM STAYS WELL SOUTH OF
FCA...AND COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS WILL BE WELL S OF RGN IN ECMWF
SCENARIO. WPC ALSO FOLLOWS ECMWF IN ITS GUID FOR WED. BY THU ALL
GUID HAS SOME KINDA OF CUT OFF OR TROF OVER THE NE ALTHOUGH THE
EVOLUTION WAS DIFFERENT...AND CLOUDS AND -SHRA A GOOD BET.

CONFIDENCE IN MORE WET CLOUDY DAMP WEATHER IS GOOD FOR THURS...AND
FOR A DRY DAY TUESDAY. WED IS THE DAY WITH A MODERATE DEGREE OF
UNCERTAINTY. OTHERWISE THE SHORT DESCRIPTION IS ALOT OF
CLOUDS...UNSETTLED WITH NR TO BLO NORMAL TEMPS. FCST WILL USE
SUPERBLEND.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA
TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING PLENTY OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT...AND ALSO SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE KALB/KPOU AND KPSF
TERMINALS THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...ENDING AT 00Z/SUN. HOWEVER...SOME LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS COULD ALLOW VSBYS/CIGS TO BRIEFLY DIP INTO THE MVFR RANGE
FOR A PERIOD THIS EVENING AT KPOU. ALSO...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
ANY GROUND FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUD FORMATION AFTER ANY RAIN TAPERS
OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT...ESP IF ANY BREAKS IN THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS
DEVELOP. DID NOT INCLUDE MENTION OF FOG AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL
NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS IN CASE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG
INCREASES...ESP BETWEEN 08Z-12Z/SAT.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KT THIS EVENING...THEN
TREND INTO THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AT SIMILAR
SPEEDS. ON SATURDAY...WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE NORTHEAST TO
EAST AT 5-10 KT...ALTHOUGH MAY TREND INTO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
AT KPOU...AND WEST/SOUTHWEST AT KPSF BY AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO MAJOR FIRE WEATHER RELATED ISSUES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

RAINFALL AMTS OF ONE TENTH...TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH ARE
EXPECTED THIS EVENING FROM THE SE CATSKILLS INTO THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT.

SATURDAY WILL BE DRY BUT RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED ONLY DROP INTO THE
30S IN THE VALLEYS/40S HIGHER TERRAIN. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
MAINLY OUT OF THE NORTH UNDER 10 MPH.

IT LOOKS AS IF OCCASIONAL RAIN WILL MOVE IN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY AS TWO LOW PRESSURES PASS TO OUR SOUTH...AND A TROUGH
DIGS IN FROM ALOFT. MOST AREAS LOOK TO RECEIVE A QUARTER INCH OR
MORE OF RAINFALL. RH VALUES WILL LIKELY REMAIN ELEVATED (OVER 60
PERCENT) BOTH DAYS.

TUESDAY IS LIKELY TO BE DRY WITH LIGHT WIND AND SOME BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE. RH VALUES WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE 30 PERCENT.

THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL RETURN LATER IN THE WORKWEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH QPF AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ANTICIPATED. THIS
RAINFALL WILL BE BENEFICIAL DUE TO DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS FOR
THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED LATER IN
THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...KL/SNYDER
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...HWJIV/KL
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER




000
FXUS61 KBOX 300206
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1006 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...MAINLY TOWARD SOUTHWEST NEW ENGLAND...WITH ONE
MORE DAY OF QUIET WEATHER AND LINGERING HIGH PRESSURE FOR
SATURDAY. UNSETTLED AND COOL WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. A BRIEF DRYING
TREND TUESDAY IS ONLY FOLLOWED BY MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR LATE
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. MADE SOME MINOR
EDITS TO THE SKY COVER AND WIND FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT
TRENDS. RADAR TRENDS ARE FOR LIGHT SHOWERS TO OCCUR ACROSS
CONNECTICUT WITH A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REST OF THE
AREA. VERY LIGHT QPF IS EXPECTED. THE AIR OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND IS STILL VERY DRY.

TONIGHT...

S/W FOCUS OF WET WEATHER. POTENT VORTEX SWEEPING OUT TO SEA S OF
NEW ENGLAND WITH FOCUS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE COLLOCATED WITH
THE LEFT- FRONT QUADRANT OF AN ACCOMPANYING JET MAX. LOTS OF
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. LOOKING AT A DECENT SHOT OF RAIN OVER SW
NEW ENGLAND POSSIBLY DRAGGING AS FAR N/E INTO CENTRAL AND SE NEW
ENGLAND UP AGAINST HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MAINE. A
CONSENSUS OF FORECAST GUIDANCE WITH MOS AND SREF TOUTED MORE SO
GIVEN SUCH A MARGINAL EVENT AND WIGGLE ROOM. PALTRY AMOUNTS WITH
UPWARDS OF A TENTH MAINLY OVER SW CT.

AN EVENING INTO MIDNIGHT AFFAIR WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS AND
TEMPERATURES HOLDING RELATIVELY STEADY. ITS AFTER MIDNIGHT TOWARDS
SATURDAY MORNING THAT WE CLEAR OUT AND SUBSEQUENTLY TEMPERATURES
DROP TO LOWS AROUND THE UPPER 30S. BREEZY SE FLOW EARLY BECOMING
LIGHT WITH PASSAGE WHICH WITH CLEARING WILL AID WITH TEMPERATURES
DROPPING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...

IF YOU HAVE ANY OUTDOOR PLANS THIS DAY IS THE PICK OF THE WEEKEND.
COMBINED DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT AHEAD OF AN
ANTICIPATED DISTURBANCE FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL MAKE FOR A GOOD
DAY OF ANABATIC FLOW AS WINDS ARE LIGHT ALL THE WAY UP TO ROUGHLY
H7. ANTICIPATING AN INTERIOR FLOW UP THE MOUNTAIN SLOPES WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF CUMULUS ATOP. A LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE IF ALL COMES
TOGETHER...SOME OF THE HIGH-RES GUIDANCE IS SPITTING OUT SOME WET
WEATHER ALONG THE RIDGE OF THE BERKSHIRES. COULD NOT RULE OUT A
SPRINKLE AS MOISTURE POOLS BENEATH A DRY-SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AROUND
H8.

OTHERWISE WARMING WELL INTO THE 60S PRIOR TO SOME THIN HIGH CLOUDS
ENCROACHING FROM THE W BY EVENING. COOL ALONG THE SHORES WITH THE
ONSHORE FLOW. WARMEST CONDITIONS IN THE CT RIVER VALLEY ESPECIALLY
SPRINGFIELD-HARTFORD METRO. COULD NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED 70 DEGREE
READING.

SATURDAY NIGHT...

MAIN QUESTION IS HOW EARLY WILL THE RAIN MOVE IN? CONSIDERING HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS INFLUENTIAL ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE WITH RIDGING
TO THE W ALBEIT WEAK AS TOP-DOWN MOISTENING PROCEEDS TO THE W PARENT
WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND FRONTOGENESIS WITH THE WARM FRONTAL
APPROACH...CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY ENCROACHING
INTO THE CT RIVER VALLEY BY SUNDAY MORNING. COLUMN IS FAIRLY MOIST
AND WITH THE WEAK LIFT PRESENT BASED ON SOUNDING ANALYSIS...IT IS
ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME WET WEATHER. SO LIKELY TO CHANCE POPS FROM
THE BERKSHIRES INTO THE CT RIVER VALLEY. LOWERING AND THICKENING OF
CLOUDS INTO MORNING WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES RATHER STEADY.
MILDER TO THE W WITH THE THICKER BLANKET FOR LONGER...COOLER E WITH
CLOUDS LESSER SO. LOWS AROUND THE LOW TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSEASONABLY COOL WITH PERIODS OF RAIN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
* DRYING TREND LIKELY TUE...POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY...
  ALONG WITH MILDER TEMPERATURES
* MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE LATE NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW...
BELOW NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS FOR THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...PARTICULARLY FROM WEDNESDAY ON. 29/12Z GUIDANCE SHOWING
A SIMILAR OVERALL TREND...BUT THE TIMING AND SPATIAL DIFFERENCES
GET RATHER PROFOUND LATE NEXT WEEK. ENSEMBLES SHOWED A LARGE
ENVELOPE OF SOLUTIONS...LEADING TO THIS LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED IN BURSTS NEXT WEEK. ONE LOW PRESSURE
PASSES US BY ON MONDAY...WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM SOMETIME LATE NEXT
WEEK. NOT EXPECTING A TOTAL WASHOUT...BE WE COULD SEE MANY PERIODS
OF RAIN BETWEEN LATE WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY...IT THIS SECOND LOW
PRESSURE SLOWS ITS EASTWARD PROGRESS.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...MOST OF THIS PERIOD STILL LIKELY TO BE COOL
AND WET. INITIAL SHOT OF RAIN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION DURING
SUNDAY FROM WEST TO EAST. RAIN MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. A SECOND PERIOD OF RAIN IS EXPECTED
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE TRACKS SOUTH OF OUR
REGION. 29/12Z GFS STILL LOOKS TO BE OVERDONE WITH ITS RAINFALL
AMOUNTS. LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL
BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING MAINLY DRY WEATHER TUESDAY WITH
TEMPS REBOUNDING TO NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY...
BUT NOT SO CONFIDENT. WHILE THE PRIMARY MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
REMAINS BACK ACROSS GREAT LAKES...MOST OF THE MORE RELIABLE
GUIDANCE NOW SHOWING A DECENT SHORTWAVE HEADING OUR WAY FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS WAVE COULD BE STRONG ENOUGH...TO TRIGGER
SOME SHOWERS...IF ENOUGH MOISTURE COMES WITH IT. GFS IS
AGGRESSIVE IN DOING SO...WHILE THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS SLOWER TO
BRING SUFFICIENT MOISTURE NORTH.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...STILL LOOKING LIKE UNSETTLED WEATHER AND
COOLER TEMPS WILL RETURN AS MID LEVEL TROF AMPLIFIES ACROSS NE
WITH POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER COASTAL WAVE TO THE SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND WITH EASTERLY FLOW. LARGE DIFFERENCES IN THE MID LEVEL
FLOW...WITH THE GFS KEEPING ITS MID LEVEL CUTOFF NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES...AND THE ECMWF HAVING A MUCH WEAKER CUTOFF OVER THE
CAROLINAS. HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS. AT
PRESENT...THINKING THURSDAY WOULD BE THE MORE LIKELY DAY FOR WET
WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...

BKN-OVC LOW END VFR CIGS WITH -RA S/W EVENING INTO MIDNIGHT...
CLEARING TOWARDS MORNING. DOMINANT E FLOW.

SATURDAY...

SCT-BKN LOW-END VFR CIGS ACROSS THE INTERIOR MAINLY OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN. DOMINANT E FLOW.

SATURDAY NIGHT...

BKN-OVC CLOUDS LOWERING TOWARDS MORNING DOWN TO LOW-END VFR WITH A
LOW RISK OF MVFR. -RA FOR TERMINALS MAINLY W OF ORH.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS WITH DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS TO MVFR AND LOCALIZED IFR POSSIBLE IN PERIODS OF RAIN.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. DRYING TREND WITH VFR AND LIGHT
WINDS.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. BRIEF MVFR IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...

INCREASING E/SE FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW OUT OF THE GREAT
LAKES INTO THIS EVENING...EXITING TOWARDS SATURDAY MORNING. AN
ISOLATED GUST UP TO 25 KTS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. SEAS BUILDING
POTENTIALLY UP TO 5 FEET ON THE S OUTER WATERS BUT WILL HOLD AT 4
FEET.

SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...

CONTINUED E/SE FLOW THOUGH NOT AS BREEZY WITH GUSTS REMAINING
BELOW 20 KTS. GOOD BOATING WEATHER. CLOUDS ON THE INCREASE LATE
TOWARDS SUNDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. INCREASING EASTERLY
WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...THEN SHIFTING TO NORTH DURING
MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. A PERIOD OF
EASTERLY 25 KT PLUS GUSTS POSSIBLE SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
AND AGAIN DURING MONDAY AS WINDS SHIFT TO NORTH. ROUGH SEAS GIVEN
THE LONG ENE FETCH. VSBYS REDUCED AT TIMES IN RAIN AND PATCHY FOG.

TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LIGHT WINDS BUT LEFTOVER ROUGH SEAS
LIKELY ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS FROM ENE SWELLS. SEAS
DIMINISHING.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS DURING
THE AFTERNOON WILL LEAD TO BUILDING SEAS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...BELK/RLG/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/SIPPRELL
MARINE...BELK/SIPPRELL




000
FXUS61 KOKX 300202
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1002 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
SATURDAY. A STATIONARY FRONT SETS UP SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH LOW
PRESSURE RIDING ALONG IT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY
BUILDS ON TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE UNSETTLED
WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST IS MOSTLY ON TRACK...JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS
AND HOURLY T/TD BASED ON LATEST OBS/TRENDS. VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND EXIT REGION OF A 100+ KT JET PRODUCING
SHOWERS...WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVE WITH ACTIVITY
EXPECTED TO END FROM NW TO SE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

HIGHEST COVERAGE WILL BE ACROSS NE NJ...NYC METRO...SW CT AND MOST
OF LONG ISLAND. COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS OVER SE CT.

OTHERWISE...PLENTY OF CLOUDS ARE ANTICIPATED AS TEMPS FALL INTO
40S...WITH LOWS SETTLING INTO THE UPPER 30S WELL INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH...WITH PERSISTENT E/SE
FLOW.

PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED...BUT THE EASTERLY FLOW AND COOL
AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.
EXPECTING HIGH/S IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. WARMEST READINGS
INLAND AWAY FROM THE WATER/MARINE INFLUENCE.

UPPER WEAK RIDGE FLATTENS AS UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY MAKES IT/S
WAY EASTWARD SAT AND SAT NIGHT. LOWER AND MID LEVEL WAA BEGINS
LATER AT NIGHT.

THE SFC HIGH GIVES WAY TO AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT SAT NIGHT.
CLOUDS INCREASE AND RAIN ENCROACHES FROM THE WEST AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES. WESTERN LOCALES LIKELY SEE SOME OF THIS RAIN BEFORE
DAYBREAK...WHEREAS EASTERN ZONES MAY NOT. WILL LAYER POPS
ACCORDINGLY.

CLOUDS/EAST FLOW SHOULD PREVENT LARGE DISPARITIES IN OVERNIGHT
TEMPS...GENERALLY IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY PERIOD WITH A STATIONARY FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA AND LOW
PRESSURE RIDING ALONG IT. SW FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A MOIST
ATMOSPHERE AND SEVERAL SHORTWAVES IN THE FLOW AS WELL AS LIFT FROM
WARM ADVECTION. WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALSO IS PROGGED TO FORM ON THE
FRONT AND PASS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BRING A MUCH NEEDED STEADY SOAKING RAINFALL TO
THE REGION.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO RETURN ON TUESDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE TRI-STATE.

CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST DETAILS IS GREATLY REDUCED FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK. A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER WESTERN NOAM SHOULD LEAD TO
RENEWED TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. UPPER LOW
OVER SE CANADA HELPS DIG THE TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY BUT THE DETAILS
VARY GREATLY BETWEEN THE VARIOUS DETERMINISTIC MODELS.
THERE IS ALSO CONSIDERABLE SPREAD AMONG THE ENSEMBLES WITH SOUTHERN
STREAM AND NORTHERN STREAM INTERACTIONS AS WELL AS TIMING OF ENERGY
WITHIN THE TROUGH. EVEN WITH THESE DIFFERENCES...THERE IS STILL A
SIGNAL FOR A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SE OR MID
ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. THE 12Z ECMWF IS SLOWER AND
CUTS THE TROUGH OFF OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WHICH COULD KEEP UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS INTO FRIDAY. HAVE GONE WITH NO HIGHER THAN LOW CHANCE POP
THIS TIME PERIOD AS CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW IN SPECIFIC
DETAILS...BUT POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAINY
CONDITIONS LATE IN THE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE WELL NORMAL IN THE LOWER 50S DUE TO A
NE FLOW AND RAIN. IT IS POSSIBLE SOME LOCATIONS STRUGGLE TO GET OUT
OF THE 40S. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL CONTINUE BELOW NORMAL...BUT SEVERAL
DEGREES WARMER THAN SUNDAY. NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THEN
FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...BUT COULD BE HELD DOWN DEPENDING
ON THE POSSIBLE COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND A
STATIONARY FRONT WELL TO THE SOUTH.

VFR. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING.
LOW PROB OF MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT. VFR ON SUN.

E WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND BACK TO THE NE LATE THIS EVENING. LIGHT NE
WINDS LIKELY VEER TO THE SE SAT MORNING. LATE DAY SSE SEABREEZE
LIKELY AT COASTAL TERMINALS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUN THROUGH WED...
.SAT EVENING...VFR.
.LATE SAT NIGHT-MON...RAIN WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS. ESE/E WIND
GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KT POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFT FOR CITY/COASTAL
TERMINALS.
.TUE...VFR.
.WED...CHANCE OF RAIN WITH WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH A BRIEF INCREASE IN WINDS EARLIER...SEAS ON THE OCEAN HAVE
INCREASED TO 5 TO 7 FEET. LATEST WAVE GUIDANCE IN AGREEMENT IN
KEEPING ELEVATED OCEAN SEAS THROUGH THE NIGHT TONIGHT...AND QUITE
POSSIBLY INTO THE MORNING SAT.

THE SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THE
NIGHT...ENDING AT 6 AM. THIS MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FURTHER INTO
THE MORNING HOURS...BUT NOT TOO CONFIDENT IN THAT AT THIS TIME.

EASTERLY WINDS REMAIN WELL BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THROUGH SAT.

INCREASING NE FLOW ON SUNDAY WILL BRING THE LIKELIHOOD OF SCA CONDS
ON ALL COASTAL WATERS. OCEAN SEAS BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT AS WELL.
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS RETURN TO NEAR SHORE WATERS ON SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT
5 FT SEAS COULD LINGER INTO MONDAY. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS FORECAST ON
ALL WATERS TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS. CONDITIONS
COULD APPROACH SCA LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY DEPENDING ON LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL BE LESS THAN 1/4 INCH.

ONE HALF TO ONE INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE LATE SAT NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
THERE IS ALSO A LOW CHANCE FOR ANOTHER SOAKING RAINFALL EVENT LATE
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KOKX 300202
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1002 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
SATURDAY. A STATIONARY FRONT SETS UP SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH LOW
PRESSURE RIDING ALONG IT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY
BUILDS ON TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE UNSETTLED
WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST IS MOSTLY ON TRACK...JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS
AND HOURLY T/TD BASED ON LATEST OBS/TRENDS. VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND EXIT REGION OF A 100+ KT JET PRODUCING
SHOWERS...WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVE WITH ACTIVITY
EXPECTED TO END FROM NW TO SE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

HIGHEST COVERAGE WILL BE ACROSS NE NJ...NYC METRO...SW CT AND MOST
OF LONG ISLAND. COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS OVER SE CT.

OTHERWISE...PLENTY OF CLOUDS ARE ANTICIPATED AS TEMPS FALL INTO
40S...WITH LOWS SETTLING INTO THE UPPER 30S WELL INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH...WITH PERSISTENT E/SE
FLOW.

PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED...BUT THE EASTERLY FLOW AND COOL
AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.
EXPECTING HIGH/S IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. WARMEST READINGS
INLAND AWAY FROM THE WATER/MARINE INFLUENCE.

UPPER WEAK RIDGE FLATTENS AS UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY MAKES IT/S
WAY EASTWARD SAT AND SAT NIGHT. LOWER AND MID LEVEL WAA BEGINS
LATER AT NIGHT.

THE SFC HIGH GIVES WAY TO AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT SAT NIGHT.
CLOUDS INCREASE AND RAIN ENCROACHES FROM THE WEST AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES. WESTERN LOCALES LIKELY SEE SOME OF THIS RAIN BEFORE
DAYBREAK...WHEREAS EASTERN ZONES MAY NOT. WILL LAYER POPS
ACCORDINGLY.

CLOUDS/EAST FLOW SHOULD PREVENT LARGE DISPARITIES IN OVERNIGHT
TEMPS...GENERALLY IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY PERIOD WITH A STATIONARY FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA AND LOW
PRESSURE RIDING ALONG IT. SW FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A MOIST
ATMOSPHERE AND SEVERAL SHORTWAVES IN THE FLOW AS WELL AS LIFT FROM
WARM ADVECTION. WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALSO IS PROGGED TO FORM ON THE
FRONT AND PASS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BRING A MUCH NEEDED STEADY SOAKING RAINFALL TO
THE REGION.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO RETURN ON TUESDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE TRI-STATE.

CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST DETAILS IS GREATLY REDUCED FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK. A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER WESTERN NOAM SHOULD LEAD TO
RENEWED TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. UPPER LOW
OVER SE CANADA HELPS DIG THE TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY BUT THE DETAILS
VARY GREATLY BETWEEN THE VARIOUS DETERMINISTIC MODELS.
THERE IS ALSO CONSIDERABLE SPREAD AMONG THE ENSEMBLES WITH SOUTHERN
STREAM AND NORTHERN STREAM INTERACTIONS AS WELL AS TIMING OF ENERGY
WITHIN THE TROUGH. EVEN WITH THESE DIFFERENCES...THERE IS STILL A
SIGNAL FOR A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SE OR MID
ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. THE 12Z ECMWF IS SLOWER AND
CUTS THE TROUGH OFF OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WHICH COULD KEEP UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS INTO FRIDAY. HAVE GONE WITH NO HIGHER THAN LOW CHANCE POP
THIS TIME PERIOD AS CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW IN SPECIFIC
DETAILS...BUT POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAINY
CONDITIONS LATE IN THE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE WELL NORMAL IN THE LOWER 50S DUE TO A
NE FLOW AND RAIN. IT IS POSSIBLE SOME LOCATIONS STRUGGLE TO GET OUT
OF THE 40S. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL CONTINUE BELOW NORMAL...BUT SEVERAL
DEGREES WARMER THAN SUNDAY. NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THEN
FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...BUT COULD BE HELD DOWN DEPENDING
ON THE POSSIBLE COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND A
STATIONARY FRONT WELL TO THE SOUTH.

VFR. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING.
LOW PROB OF MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT. VFR ON SUN.

E WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND BACK TO THE NE LATE THIS EVENING. LIGHT NE
WINDS LIKELY VEER TO THE SE SAT MORNING. LATE DAY SSE SEABREEZE
LIKELY AT COASTAL TERMINALS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUN THROUGH WED...
.SAT EVENING...VFR.
.LATE SAT NIGHT-MON...RAIN WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS. ESE/E WIND
GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KT POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFT FOR CITY/COASTAL
TERMINALS.
.TUE...VFR.
.WED...CHANCE OF RAIN WITH WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH A BRIEF INCREASE IN WINDS EARLIER...SEAS ON THE OCEAN HAVE
INCREASED TO 5 TO 7 FEET. LATEST WAVE GUIDANCE IN AGREEMENT IN
KEEPING ELEVATED OCEAN SEAS THROUGH THE NIGHT TONIGHT...AND QUITE
POSSIBLY INTO THE MORNING SAT.

THE SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THE
NIGHT...ENDING AT 6 AM. THIS MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FURTHER INTO
THE MORNING HOURS...BUT NOT TOO CONFIDENT IN THAT AT THIS TIME.

EASTERLY WINDS REMAIN WELL BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THROUGH SAT.

INCREASING NE FLOW ON SUNDAY WILL BRING THE LIKELIHOOD OF SCA CONDS
ON ALL COASTAL WATERS. OCEAN SEAS BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT AS WELL.
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS RETURN TO NEAR SHORE WATERS ON SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT
5 FT SEAS COULD LINGER INTO MONDAY. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS FORECAST ON
ALL WATERS TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS. CONDITIONS
COULD APPROACH SCA LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY DEPENDING ON LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL BE LESS THAN 1/4 INCH.

ONE HALF TO ONE INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE LATE SAT NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
THERE IS ALSO A LOW CHANCE FOR ANOTHER SOAKING RAINFALL EVENT LATE
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KOKX 300011
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
811 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
SATURDAY. A STATIONARY FRONT SETS UP SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH LOW
PRESSURE RIDING ALONG IT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY
BUILDS ON TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE UNSETTLED
WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
FORECAST IS MOSTLY ON TRACK...JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS
AND HOURLY T/TD BASED ON LATEST OBS/TRENDS. VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND EXIT REGION OF A 100+ KT JET PRODUCING
SHOWERS...WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVE WITH ACTIVITY
EXPECTED TO END FROM NW TO SE AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

HIGHEST COVERAGE WILL BE ACROSS NE NJ...NYC METRO...SW CT AND MOST
OF LONG ISLAND. COVERAGE WILL BE LESS OVER SE CT.

OTHERWISE...PLENTY OF CLOUDS ARE ANTICIPATED AS TEMPS FALL INTO
40S...WITH LOWS SETTLING INTO THE UPPER 30S WELL INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH...WITH PERSISTENT E/SE
FLOW.

PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED...BUT THE EASTERLY FLOW AND COOL
AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.
EXPECTING HIGH/S IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. WARMEST READINGS
INLAND AWAY FROM THE WATER/MARINE INFLUENCE.

UPPER WEAK RIDGE FLATTENS AS UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY MAKES IT/S
WAY EASTWARD SAT AND SAT NIGHT. LOWER AND MID LEVEL WAA BEGINS
LATER AT NIGHT.

THE SFC HIGH GIVES WAY TO AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT SAT NIGHT.
CLOUDS INCREASE AND RAIN ENCROACHES FROM THE WEST AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES. WESTERN LOCALES LIKELY SEE SOME OF THIS RAIN BEFORE
DAYBREAK...WHEREAS EASTERN ZONES MAY NOT. WILL LAYER POPS
ACCORDINGLY.

CLOUDS/EAST FLOW SHOULD PREVENT LARGE DISPARITIES IN OVERNIGHT
TEMPS...GENERALLY IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY PERIOD WITH A STATIONARY FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA AND LOW
PRESSURE RIDING ALONG IT. SW FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A MOIST
ATMOSPHERE AND SEVERAL SHORTWAVES IN THE FLOW AS WELL AS LIFT FROM
WARM ADVECTION. WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALSO IS PROGGED TO FORM ON THE
FRONT AND PASS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BRING A MUCH NEEDED STEADY SOAKING RAINFALL TO
THE REGION.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO RETURN ON TUESDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE TRI-STATE.

CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST DETAILS IS GREATLY REDUCED FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK. A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER WESTERN NOAM SHOULD LEAD TO
RENEWED TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. UPPER LOW
OVER SE CANADA HELPS DIG THE TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY BUT THE DETAILS
VARY GREATLY BETWEEN THE VARIOUS DETERMINISTIC MODELS.
THERE IS ALSO CONSIDERABLE SPREAD AMONG THE ENSEMBLES WITH SOUTHERN
STREAM AND NORTHERN STREAM INTERACTIONS AS WELL AS TIMING OF ENERGY
WITHIN THE TROUGH. EVEN WITH THESE DIFFERENCES...THERE IS STILL A
SIGNAL FOR A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SE OR MID
ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. THE 12Z ECMWF IS SLOWER AND
CUTS THE TROUGH OFF OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WHICH COULD KEEP UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS INTO FRIDAY. HAVE GONE WITH NO HIGHER THAN LOW CHANCE POP
THIS TIME PERIOD AS CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW IN SPECIFIC
DETAILS...BUT POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAINY
CONDITIONS LATE IN THE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE WELL NORMAL IN THE LOWER 50S DUE TO A
NE FLOW AND RAIN. IT IS POSSIBLE SOME LOCATIONS STRUGGLE TO GET OUT
OF THE 40S. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL CONTINUE BELOW NORMAL...BUT SEVERAL
DEGREES WARMER THAN SUNDAY. NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THEN
FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...BUT COULD BE HELD DOWN DEPENDING
ON THE POSSIBLE COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND A
STATIONARY FRONT WELL TO THE SOUTH.

VFR. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING.
LOW PROB OF MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT. VFR ON SUN.

E WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND BACK TO THE NE LATE THIS EVENING. LIGHT NE
WINDS LIKELY VEER TO THE SE SAT MORNING. LATE DAY SSE SEABREEZE
LIKELY AT COASTAL TERMINALS.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WINDS VEERING TO SE AND THEN SSE
SAT MORN INTO AFT COULD BE OFF BY 1 TO 2 HRS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WINDS VEERING TO SE AND THEN SSE
SAT MORN INTO AFT COULD BE OFF BY 1 TO 2 HRS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WINDS VEERING TO ESE AND THEN SE
SAT MORN INTO AFT COULD BE OFF BY 1 TO 2 HRS.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WINDS VEERING TO ESE AND THEN SSE
SAT MORN INTO AFT COULD BE OFF BY 1 TO 2 HRS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WINDS VEERING TO ESE AND THEN SSE
SAT MORN INTO AFT COULD BE OFF BY 1 TO 2 HRS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WINDS VEERING TO SE AND THEN SSE
SAT MORN INTO AFT COULD BE OFF BY 1 TO 2 HRS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUN THROUGH WED...
.SAT EVENING...VFR.
.LATE SAT NIGHT-MON...RAIN WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS. ESE/E WIND
GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KT POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFT FOR CITY/COASTAL
TERMINALS.
.TUE...VFR.
.WED...CHANCE OF RAIN WITH WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH A BRIEF INCREASE IN WINDS EARLIER...SEAS ON THE OCEAN HAVE
INCREASED TO 5 TO 7 FEET. LATEST WAVE GUIDANCE IN AGREEMENT IN
KEEPING ELEVATED OCEAN SEAS THROUGH THE NIGHT TONIGHT...AND QUITE
POSSIBLY INTO THE MORNING SAT.

THE SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THE
NIGHT...ENDING AT 6 AM. THIS MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FURTHER INTO
THE MORNING HOURS...BUT NOT TOO CONFIDENT IN THAT AT THIS TIME.

EASTERLY WINDS REMAIN WELL BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THROUGH SAT.

INCREASING NE FLOW ON SUNDAY WILL BRING THE LIKELIHOOD OF SCA CONDS
ON ALL COASTAL WATERS. OCEAN SEAS BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT AS WELL.
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS RETURN TO NEAR SHORE WATERS ON SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT
5 FT SEAS COULD LINGER INTO MONDAY. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS FORECAST ON
ALL WATERS TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS. CONDITIONS
COULD APPROACH SCA LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY DEPENDING ON LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL BE LESS THAN 1/4 INCH.

ONE HALF TO ONE INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE LATE SAT NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
THERE IS ALSO A LOW CHANCE FOR ANOTHER SOAKING RAINFALL EVENT LATE
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KBOX 292338
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
738 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...MAINLY TOWARD SOUTHWEST NEW ENGLAND...WITH ONE
MORE DAY OF QUIET WEATHER AND LINGERING HIGH PRESSURE FOR
SATURDAY. UNSETTLED AND COOL WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. A BRIEF DRYING
TREND TUESDAY IS ONLY FOLLOWED BY MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR LATE
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. DID BRING THE
FORECAST BACK IN LINE WITH OBSERVED TRENDS. SHOWERS ON RADAR
MOSAIC HAVING A TOUGH TIME REACHING THE GROUND OVER SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS OF 20+ DEGREES STILL NEED TO BE
OVERCOME. ADJUSTED TIMING OF SHOWERS TO BE SLIGHTLY SLOWER.

TONIGHT...

S/W FOCUS OF WET WEATHER. POTENT VORTEX SWEEPING OUT TO SEA S OF
NEW ENGLAND WITH FOCUS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE COLLOCATED WITH
THE LEFT- FRONT QUADRANT OF AN ACCOMPANYING JET MAX. LOTS OF
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. LOOKING AT A DECENT SHOT OF RAIN OVER SW
NEW ENGLAND POSSIBLY DRAGGING AS FAR N/E INTO CENTRAL AND SE NEW
ENGLAND UP AGAINST HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MAINE. A
CONSENSUS OF FORECAST GUIDANCE WITH MOS AND SREF TOUTED MORE SO
GIVEN SUCH A MARGINAL EVENT AND WIGGLE ROOM. PALTRY AMOUNTS WITH
UPWARDS OF A TENTH MAINLY OVER SW CT.

AN EVENING INTO MIDNIGHT AFFAIR WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS AND
TEMPERATURES HOLDING RELATIVELY STEADY. ITS AFTER MIDNIGHT TOWARDS
SATURDAY MORNING THAT WE CLEAR OUT AND SUBSEQUENTLY TEMPERATURES
DROP TO LOWS AROUND THE UPPER 30S. BREEZY SE FLOW EARLY BECOMING
LIGHT WITH PASSAGE WHICH WITH CLEARING WILL AID WITH TEMPERATURES
DROPPING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...

IF YOU HAVE ANY OUTDOOR PLANS THIS DAY IS THE PICK OF THE WEEKEND.
COMBINED DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT AHEAD OF AN
ANTICIPATED DISTURBANCE FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL MAKE FOR A GOOD
DAY OF ANABATIC FLOW AS WINDS ARE LIGHT ALL THE WAY UP TO ROUGHLY
H7. ANTICIPATING AN INTERIOR FLOW UP THE MOUNTAIN SLOPES WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF CUMULUS ATOP. A LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE IF ALL COMES
TOGETHER...SOME OF THE HIGH-RES GUIDANCE IS SPITTING OUT SOME WET
WEATHER ALONG THE RIDGE OF THE BERKSHIRES. COULD NOT RULE OUT A
SPRINKLE AS MOISTURE POOLS BENEATH A DRY-SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AROUND
H8.

OTHERWISE WARMING WELL INTO THE 60S PRIOR TO SOME THIN HIGH CLOUDS
ENCROACHING FROM THE W BY EVENING. COOL ALONG THE SHORES WITH THE
ONSHORE FLOW. WARMEST CONDITIONS IN THE CT RIVER VALLEY ESPECIALLY
SPRINGFIELD-HARTFORD METRO. COULD NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED 70 DEGREE
READING.

SATURDAY NIGHT...

MAIN QUESTION IS HOW EARLY WILL THE RAIN MOVE IN? CONSIDERING HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS INFLUENTIAL ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE WITH RIDGING
TO THE W ALBEIT WEAK AS TOP-DOWN MOISTENING PROCEEDS TO THE W PARENT
WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND FRONTOGENESIS WITH THE WARM FRONTAL
APPROACH...CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY ENCROACHING
INTO THE CT RIVER VALLEY BY SUNDAY MORNING. COLUMN IS FAIRLY MOIST
AND WITH THE WEAK LIFT PRESENT BASED ON SOUNDING ANALYSIS...IT IS
ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME WET WEATHER. SO LIKELY TO CHANCE POPS FROM
THE BERKSHIRES INTO THE CT RIVER VALLEY. LOWERING AND THICKENING OF
CLOUDS INTO MORNING WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES RATHER STEADY.
MILDER TO THE W WITH THE THICKER BLANKET FOR LONGER...COOLER E WITH
CLOUDS LESSER SO. LOWS AROUND THE LOW TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSEASONABLY COOL WITH PERIODS OF RAIN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
* DRYING TREND LIKELY TUE...POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY...
  ALONG WITH MILDER TEMPERATURES
* MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE LATE NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW...
BELOW NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS FOR THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...PARTICULARLY FROM WEDNESDAY ON. 29/12Z GUIDANCE SHOWING
A SIMILAR OVERALL TREND...BUT THE TIMING AND SPATIAL DIFFERENCES
GET RATHER PROFOUND LATE NEXT WEEK. ENSEMBLES SHOWED A LARGE
ENVELOPE OF SOLUTIONS...LEADING TO THIS LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED IN BURSTS NEXT WEEK. ONE LOW PRESSURE
PASSES US BY ON MONDAY...WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM SOMETIME LATE NEXT
WEEK. NOT EXPECTING A TOTAL WASHOUT...BE WE COULD SEE MANY PERIODS
OF RAIN BETWEEN LATE WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY...IT THIS SECOND LOW
PRESSURE SLOWS ITS EASTWARD PROGRESS.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...MOST OF THIS PERIOD STILL LIKELY TO BE COOL
AND WET. INITIAL SHOT OF RAIN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION DURING
SUNDAY FROM WEST TO EAST. RAIN MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. A SECOND PERIOD OF RAIN IS EXPECTED
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE TRACKS SOUTH OF OUR
REGION. 29/12Z GFS STILL LOOKS TO BE OVERDONE WITH ITS RAINFALL
AMOUNTS. LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL
BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING MAINLY DRY WEATHER TUESDAY WITH
TEMPS REBOUNDING TO NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY...
BUT NOT SO CONFIDENT. WHILE THE PRIMARY MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
REMAINS BACK ACROSS GREAT LAKES...MOST OF THE MORE RELIABLE
GUIDANCE NOW SHOWING A DECENT SHORTWAVE HEADING OUR WAY FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS WAVE COULD BE STRONG ENOUGH...TO TRIGGER
SOME SHOWERS...IF ENOUGH MOISTURE COMES WITH IT. GFS IS
AGGRESSIVE IN DOING SO...WHILE THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS SLOWER TO
BRING SUFFICIENT MOISTURE NORTH.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...STILL LOOKING LIKE UNSETTLED WEATHER AND
COOLER TEMPS WILL RETURN AS MID LEVEL TROF AMPLIFIES ACROSS NE
WITH POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER COASTAL WAVE TO THE SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND WITH EASTERLY FLOW. LARGE DIFFERENCES IN THE MID LEVEL
FLOW...WITH THE GFS KEEPING ITS MID LEVEL CUTOFF NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES...AND THE ECMWF HAVING A MUCH WEAKER CUTOFF OVER THE
CAROLINAS. HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS. AT
PRESENT...THINKING THURSDAY WOULD BE THE MORE LIKELY DAY FOR WET
WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...

BKN-OVC LOW END VFR CIGS WITH -RA S/W EVENING INTO MIDNIGHT...
CLEARING TOWARDS MORNING. DOMINANT E FLOW.

SATURDAY...

SCT-BKN LOW-END VFR CIGS ACROSS THE INTERIOR MAINLY OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN. DOMINANT E FLOW.

SATURDAY NIGHT...

BKN-OVC CLOUDS LOWERING TOWARDS MORNING DOWN TO LOW-END VFR WITH A
LOW RISK OF MVFR. -RA FOR TERMINALS MAINLY W OF ORH.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS WITH DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS TO MVFR AND LOCALIZED IFR POSSIBLE IN PERIODS OF RAIN.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. DRYING TREND WITH VFR AND LIGHT
WINDS.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. BRIEF MVFR IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...

INCREASING E/SE FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW OUT OF THE GREAT
LAKES INTO THIS EVENING...EXITING TOWARDS SATURDAY MORNING. AN
ISOLATED GUST UP TO 25 KTS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. SEAS BUILDING
POTENTIALLY UP TO 5 FEET ON THE S OUTER WATERS BUT WILL HOLD AT 4
FEET.

SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...

CONTINUED E/SE FLOW THOUGH NOT AS BREEZY WITH GUSTS REMAINING
BELOW 20 KTS. GOOD BOATING WEATHER. CLOUDS ON THE INCREASE LATE
TOWARDS SUNDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. INCREASING EASTERLY
WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...THEN SHIFTING TO NORTH DURING
MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. A PERIOD OF
EASTERLY 25 KT PLUS GUSTS POSSIBLE SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
AND AGAIN DURING MONDAY AS WINDS SHIFT TO NORTH. ROUGH SEAS GIVEN
THE LONG ENE FETCH. VSBYS REDUCED AT TIMES IN RAIN AND PATCHY FOG.

TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LIGHT WINDS BUT LEFTOVER ROUGH SEAS
LIKELY ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS FROM ENE SWELLS. SEAS
DIMINISHING.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS DURING
THE AFTERNOON WILL LEAD TO BUILDING SEAS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...BELK/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/SIPPRELL
MARINE...BELK/SIPPRELL




000
FXUS61 KALY 292326
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
726 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
OUR REGION WILL BE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO
AND QUEBEC AND AN EAST-WEST FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THE NIGHT...PARTICULARLY
IN THE SOUTHERN AREAS. SATURDAY THE HIGH WILL DOMINATE WITH FAIR
COOL CONDITIONS IN MUCH OF THE REGION. SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
THE FRONT WILL SURGE TOWARD US AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TO
START THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 720 PM EDT...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO
TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN PA. THE COMBINATION OF MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS...AND SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT HAS ALLOWED BANDS OF
LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY AND
SCHOHARIE CO...WITH SOME SPRINKLES OCCASIONALLY BREAKING OFF THIS
BAND AND EXTENDING INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WE EXPECT THE BEST FORCING WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TO PASS ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE REGION. SO...EXPECT THE CURRENT BAND OF LIGHT RAIN OVER THE
MOHAWK VALLEY/SCHOHARIE CO REGION TO SHIFT EAST/SOUTHEAST...WITH
SOME SHOWERS EXPECTED TO REACH PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...AND PERHAPS THE BERKSHIRES. ALSO...A STEADIER AREA OF
RAIN...SOME MODERATE IN INTENSITY...WAS DEVELOPING CLOSER TO THE
ACTUAL UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NYS AND THE
WESTERN CATSKILLS. THIS AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TRANSLATING EAST
SOUTHEAST...OVERSPREADING THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY
REGION AND EVENTUALLY NW CT BETWEEN 8 AND 10 PM.

THE AREAS OF RAIN SHOULD THEN PERSIST UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT...BEFORE SINKING BACK SOUTHEAST AND DECREASING IN AREAL
COVERAGE. PLENTY OF CLOUDS SHOULD LINGER UNTIL DAYBREAK...EXCEPT
FOR SOME CLEARING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE GEORGE
REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP AS MUCH AS THEY COULD DUE TO PLENTY OF
CLOUDS AND SOME ADDED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...GENERALLY BOTTOMING
OUT FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF
5-10 MPH SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN BACK TO THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST
AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT REMAIN LIGHT...GENERALLY UNDER 10 MPH.

A VERY WEAK BUBBLE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY FOR
SATURDAY PROVIDING OUR ENTIRE REGION WITH SOME SUNSHINE...DRY
CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THE LAST DAY OF
APRIL. THAT TRANSLATES TO HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN THE
VALLEYS....55-60 HIGHER TERRAIN. A LIGHT NORTH WIND WILL PREVAIL
AROUND 5 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AT 500 HPA A COMPLEX PATTERN IS SETTING UP THAT WILL SET REGION
UP FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF COOL...WET UNSETTLED WEATHER. IT STARTS
WITH A FLAT RIDGE ON THE E SEABOARD AS A CUT OFF LIFTS EASTWARD
SHEARS OFF IN THE MID MISS VLY INTO THIS RIDGE. ANOTHER 500HPA
SHORT WV DROPS SE OUT OF ONT...AND OVERALL THE RIDGE FLATTENS.
WITH A MAJOR E-W THERMAL RIBBON IN THE OHIO VALLEY TO MID ATLC
COAST..THE COMBINATION OF INCRG CVA...ISENTROPIC LIFT AND A SFC
LOW WILL ORGANIZE. THE LOW WILL PROPAGATE ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT IS ALSO SHIFTING N...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST.

AS A RESULT OVERRUNNING CLOUDS AND -RN WILL OVERSPREAD THE RGN SAT
NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. BY 12UTC MONDAY ONLY A SHORT WV
REMAINS IN A FLAT WESTERLY FLOW BUT ITS ENOUGH TO GRADUALLY
DEEPEN A COASTAL LOW ON THE MID ATLC COAST. PCPN WONT DIMINISH OR
END TILL LATE MONDAY WHEN THE 500HPA SHORT WV FINALLY EXITS. ONLY
A WK SFC HIGH WILL FOLLOW AND CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH OR
MAY LINGER MON NT.

OTHER THAN SOME VARIATIONS IN QPF..AND A SLIGHTLY FURTHER N GEM
TRACK THE GEM/NAM/GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PERIOD. IN
SHORT SVRL DAYS OF CLOUDY COOL...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...
PERIODS OF NEEDED RAIN...LIKELY ON THE ORDER OF 1-2 INCHES TOTAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MDL SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT TUESDAY WITH A SERIES OF SHORT WVS
DIVING SE IN ONT...THE UPR MISS VLY AND A FLAT RIDGE ALONG THE
EAST COAST AND WEAK SFC HIGH OVER NE. CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH BUT
WHETHER IT CLEARS OR BCMS PC IS QUESTIONABLE. TEMPS WILL BE NR
NORMALS.

FROM TUES NT THRU THE END OF EFP THE MDLS SPREAD IN SVRL
DIRECTIONS. THE GFS/GEM DIG A STRONG SHORT WV INTO THE S
APPALACHIANS...WITH CYCLOGENESIS ON THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT TUESDAY
NIGHT...WHICH DEEPENS...AND THE OTHER SHORT WVS PHASE WITH THIS
SYSTEM OVER THE MID ATLC. THE SFC LOW MOVES NE AND RESULTS IN A
CLASSIC INSIDE THE BENCHMARK NOR EASTER...SOAKING RAIN
DIMINISHING TO -SHRA THUR. THE OVER PLAY OF PHASING IN THESE MDLS
IS ALWAYS SUSPECT.

THE ECMWF KEEPS THE ENERGY STREAMS SEPARATE AND BRINGS A CDFNT
ACROSS THE RGN WED NT AS N BRANCH OF 500HPA TROF DIVES ACROSS THE
NE USA THU. MEANWHILE THE SOUTHERN STREAM STAYS WELL SOUTH OF
FCA...AND COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS WILL BE WELL S OF RGN IN ECMWF
SCENARIO. WPC ALSO FOLLOWS ECMWF IN ITS GUID FOR WED. BY THU ALL
GUID HAS SOME KINDA OF CUT OFF OR TROF OVER THE NE ALTHOUGH THE
EVOLUTION WAS DIFFERENT...AND CLOUDS AND -SHRA A GOOD BET.

CONFIDENCE IN MORE WET CLOUDY DAMP WEATHER IS GOOD FOR THURS...AND
FOR A DRY DAY TUESDAY. WED IS THE DAY WITH A MODERATE DEGREE OF
UNCERTAINTY. OTHERWISE THE SHORT DESCRIPTION IS ALOT OF
CLOUDS...UNSETTLED WITH NR TO BLO NORMAL TEMPS. FCST WILL USE
SUPERBLEND.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA
TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING PLENTY OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT...AND ALSO SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE KALB/KPOU AND KPSF
TERMINALS THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...ENDING AT 00Z/SUN. HOWEVER...SOME LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS COULD ALLOW VSBYS/CIGS TO BRIEFLY DIP INTO THE MVFR RANGE
FOR A PERIOD THIS EVENING AT KPOU. ALSO...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
ANY GROUND FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUD FORMATION AFTER ANY RAIN TAPERS
OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT...ESP IF ANY BREAKS IN THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS
DEVELOP. DID NOT INCLUDE MENTION OF FOG AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL
NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS IN CASE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG
INCREASES...ESP BETWEEN 08Z-12Z/SAT.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KT THIS EVENING...THEN
TREND INTO THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AT SIMILAR
SPEEDS. ON SATURDAY...WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE NORTHEAST TO
EAST AT 5-10 KT...ALTHOUGH MAY TREND INTO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
AT KPOU...AND WEST/SOUTHWEST AT KPSF BY AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO MAJOR FIRE WEATHER RELATED ISSUES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

SOME LIGHT RAIN IS LIKELY NEAR THE I-84 CORRIDOR TONIGHT WITH
AMOUNTS WELL UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH. OTHERWISE NOTHING MORE THAN
A FEW SPRINKLES TONIGHT FURTHER NORTH WITH A PARTIAL RECOVERY AND
LIGHT OR CALM WIND.

SATURDAY WILL BE DRY BUT RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED ONLY DROP INTO THE
30S IN THE VALLEYS/40S HIGHER TERRAIN. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
MAINLY OUT OF THE NORTH UNDER 10 MPH.

IT LOOKS AS IF OCCASIONAL RAIN WILL MOVE IN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY AS TWO LOW PRESSURES PASS TO OUR SOUTH...AND A TROUGH
DIGS IN FROM ALOFT. MOST AREAS LOOK TO RECEIVE A QUARTER INCH OR
MORE OF RAINFALL. RH VALUES WILL LIKELY REMAIN ELEVATED (OVER 60
PERCENT) BOTH DAYS.

TUESDAY IS LIKELY TO BE DRY WITH LIGHT WIND AND SOME BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE. RH VALUES WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE 30 PERCENT.

THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL RETURN LATER IN THE WORKWEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH QPF AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ANTICIPATED. THIS
RAINFALL WILL BE BENEFICIAL DUE TO DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS FOR
THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED LATER IN
THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...KL/SNYDER
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...HWJIV/KL
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER




000
FXUS61 KBOX 292004
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
404 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...MAINLY TOWARD SOUTHWEST NEW ENGLAND...WITH ONE
MORE DAY OF QUIET WEATHER AND LINGERING HIGH PRESSURE FOR
SATURDAY. UNSETTLED AND COOL WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. A BRIEF DRYING
TREND TUESDAY IS ONLY FOLLOWED BY MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR LATE
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
INTO THIS EVENING...

THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR N/E IS KEEPING ALL
BUT SW NEW ENGLAND FAIRLY CLEAR. THOUGH ORIGINATING FLOW OFF THE
GULF OF MAINE IS ALSO KEEPING IT COOL. HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE
UPPER 50S TO NEAR THE 60 DEGREE MARK WITH E FLOW.

NUISANCE CLOUDS CONTINUE ACROSS W MASS AND MUCH OF CT ASSOCIATED
WITH MID LEVEL ENERGY AND DECENT MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE H85-5
LAYER. EVALUATING UPSTREAM ACROSS THE E GREAT LAKES...CAN SEE THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE SYNOPTIC DISTURBANCE FOR THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE W TO E ACROSS THE
REGION...SO SOONER RATHER THAN LATER EVERYONE WILL BE BENEATH THE
BLANKET.

TONIGHT...

S/W FOCUS OF WET WEATHER. POTENT VORTEX SWEEPING OUT TO SEA S OF NEW
ENGLAND WITH FOCUS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE COLLOCATED WITH THE LEFT-
FRONT QUADRANT OF AN ACCOMPANYING JET MAX. LOTS OF MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH. LOOKING AT A DECENT SHOT OF RAIN OVER SW NEW ENGLAND POSSIBLY
DRAGGING AS FAR N/E INTO CENTRAL AND SE NEW ENGLAND UP AGAINST HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MAINE. A CONSENSUS OF FORECAST GUIDANCE
WITH MOS AND SREF TOUTED MORE SO GIVEN SUCH A MARGINAL EVENT AND
WIGGLE ROOM. PALTRY AMOUNTS WITH UPWARDS OF A TENTH MAINLY OVER SW
CT.

AN EVENING INTO MIDNIGHT AFFAIR WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS AND
TEMPERATURES HOLDING RELATIVELY STEADY. ITS AFTER MIDNIGHT TOWARDS
SATURDAY MORNING THAT WE CLEAR OUT AND SUBSEQUENTLY TEMPERATURES
DROP TO LOWS AROUND THE UPPER 30S. BREEZY SE FLOW EARLY BECOMING
LIGHT WITH PASSAGE WHICH WITH CLEARING WILL AID WITH TEMPERATURES
DROPPING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...

IF YOU HAVE ANY OUTDOOR PLANS THIS DAY IS THE PICK OF THE WEEKEND.
COMBINED DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT AHEAD OF AN
ANTICIPATED DISTURBANCE FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL MAKE FOR A GOOD
DAY OF ANABATIC FLOW AS WINDS ARE LIGHT ALL THE WAY UP TO ROUGHLY
H7. ANTICIPATING AN INTERIOR FLOW UP THE MOUNTAIN SLOPES WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF CUMULUS ATOP. A LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE IF ALL COMES
TOGETHER...SOME OF THE HIGH-RES GUIDANCE IS SPITTING OUT SOME WET
WEATHER ALONG THE RIDGE OF THE BERKSHIRES. COULD NOT RULE OUT A
SPRINKLE AS MOISTURE POOLS BENEATH A DRY-SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AROUND
H8.

OTHERWISE WARMING WELL INTO THE 60S PRIOR TO SOME THIN HIGH CLOUDS
ENCROACHING FROM THE W BY EVENING. COOL ALONG THE SHORES WITH THE
ONSHORE FLOW. WARMEST CONDITIONS IN THE CT RIVER VALLEY ESPECIALLY
SPRINGFIELD-HARTFORD METRO. COULD NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED 70 DEGREE
READING.

SATURDAY NIGHT...

MAIN QUESTION IS HOW EARLY WILL THE RAIN MOVE IN? CONSIDERING HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS INFLUENTIAL ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE WITH RIDGING
TO THE W ALBEIT WEAK AS TOP-DOWN MOISTENING PROCEEDS TO THE W PARENT
WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND FRONTOGENESIS WITH THE WARM FRONTAL
APPROACH...CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY ENCROACHING
INTO THE CT RIVER VALLEY BY SUNDAY MORNING. COLUMN IS FAIRLY MOIST
AND WITH THE WEAK LIFT PRESENT BASED ON SOUNDING ANALYSIS...IT IS
ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME WET WEATHER. SO LIKELY TO CHANCE POPS FROM
THE BERKSHIRES INTO THE CT RIVER VALLEY. LOWERING AND THICKENING OF
CLOUDS INTO MORNING WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES RATHER STEADY.
MILDER TO THE W WITH THE THICKER BLANKET FOR LONGER...COOLER E WITH
CLOUDS LESSER SO. LOWS AROUND THE LOW TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSEASONABLY COOL WITH PERIODS OF RAIN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
* DRYING TREND LIKELY TUE...POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY...ALONG
  WITH MILDER TEMPERATURES
* MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE LATE NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW...
BELOW NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS FOR THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...PARTICULARLY FROM WEDNESDAY ON. 29/12Z GUIDANCE SHOWING
A SIMILAR OVERALL TREND...BUT THE TIMING AND SPATIAL DIFFERENCES
GET RATHER PROFOUND LATE NEXT WEEK. ENSEMBLES SHOWED A LARGE
ENVELOPE OF SOLUTIONS...LEADING TO THIS LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

UNSETTELED WEATHER EXPECTED IN BURSTS NEXT WEEK. ONE LOW PRESSURE
PASSES US BY ON MONDAY...WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM SOMETIME LATE NEXT
WEEK. NOT EXPECTING A TOTAL WASHOUT...BE WE COULD SEE MANY PERIODS
OF RAIN BETWEEN LATE WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY...IT THIS SECOND LOW
PRESSURE SLOWS ITS EASTWARD PROGRESS.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...MOST OF THIS PERIOD STILL LIKELY TO BE COOL
AND WET. INITIAL SHOT OF RAIN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION DURING
SUNDAY FROM WEST TO EAST. RAIN MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. A SECOND PERIOD OF RAIN IS EXPECTED
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE TRACKS SOUTH OF OUR
REGION. 29/12Z GFS STILL LOOKS TO BE OVERDONE WITH ITS RAINFALL
AMOUNTS. LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL
BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING MAINLY DRY WEATHER TUESDAY WITH
TEMPS REBOUNDING TO NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY...
BUT NOT SO CONFIDENT. WHILE THE PRIMARY MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
REMAINS BACK ACROSS GREAT LAKES...MOST OF THE MORE RELIABLE
GUIDANCE NOW SHOWING A DECENT SHORTWAVE HEADING OUR WAY FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS WAVE COULD BE STRONG ENOUGH...TO TRIGGER
SOME SHOWERS...IF ENOUGH MOISTURE COMES WITH IT. GFS IS
AGGRESSIVE IN DOING SO...WHILE THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS SLOWER TO
BRING SUFFICIENT MOISTURE NORTH.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...STILL LOOKING LIKE UNSETTLED WEATHER AND
COOLER TEMPS WILL RETURN AS MID LEVEL TROF AMPLIFIES ACROSS NE
WITH POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER COASTAL WAVE TO THE SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND WITH EASTERLY FLOW. LARGE DIFFERENCES IN THE MID LEVEL
FLOW...WITH THE GFS KEEPING ITS MID LEVEL CUTOFF NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES...AND THE ECMWF HAVING A MUCH WEAKER CUTOFF OVER THE
CAROLINAS. HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS. AT
PRESENT...THINKING THURSDAY WOULD BE THE MORE LIKELY DAY FOR WET
WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...

BKN-OVC LOW END VFR CIGS WITH -RA S/W EVENING INTO MIDNIGHT...
CLEARING TOWARDS MORNING. DOMINANT E FLOW.

SATURDAY...

SCT-BKN LOW-END VFR CIGS ACROSS THE INTERIOR MAINLY OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN. DOMINANT E FLOW.

SATURDAY NIGHT...

BKN-OVC CLOUDS LOWERING TOWARDS MORNING DOWN TO LOW-END VFR WITH A
LOW RISK OF MVFR. -RA FOR TERMINALS MAINLY W OF ORH.

KBOS TERMINAL...VFR. CONTINUED E FLOW.

KBDL TERMINAL...VFR.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS WITH DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS TO MVFR AND LOCALIZED IFR POSSIBLE IN PERIODS OF RAIN.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. DRYING TREND WITH VFR AND LIGHT
WINDS.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. BRIEF MVFR IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...

INCREASING E/SE FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW OUT OF THE GREAT
LAKES INTO THIS EVENING...EXITING TOWARDS SATURDAY MORNING. AN
ISOLATED GUST UP TO 25 KTS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. SEAS BUILDING
POTENTIALLY UP TO 5 FEET ON THE S OUTER WATERS BUT WILL HOLD AT 4
FEET.

SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...

CONTINUED E/SE FLOW THOUGH NOT AS BREEZY WITH GUSTS REMAINING
BELOW 20 KTS. GOOD BOATING WEATHER. CLOUDS ON THE INCREASE LATE
TOWARDS SUNDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. INCREASING EASTERLY
WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...THEN SHIFTING TO NORTH DURING
MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. A PERIOD OF
EASTERLY 25 KT PLUS GUSTS POSSIBLE SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
AND AGAIN DURING MONDAY AS WINDS SHIFT TO NORTH. ROUGH SEAS GIVEN
THE LONG ENE FETCH. VSBYS REDUCED AT TIMES IN RAIN AND PATCHY FOG.

TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LIGHT WINDS BUT LEFTOVER ROUGH SEAS
LIKELY ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS FROM ENE SWELLS. SEAS
DIMINISHING.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS DURING
THE AFTERNOON WILL LEAD TO BUILDING SEAS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/SIPPRELL
MARINE...BELK/SIPPRELL




000
FXUS61 KALY 291929
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
329 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
OUR REGION WILL BE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO
AND QUEBEC AND AN EAST-WEST FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THE NIGHT...PARTICULARLY
IN THE SOUTHERN AREAS. SATURDAY THE HIGH WILL DOMINATE WITH FAIR
COOL CONDITIONS IN MUCH OF THE REGION. SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
THE FRONT WILL SURGE TOWARD US AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TO
START THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT...LATEST REGIONAL RADARS INDICATE A BAND OF
LIGHT RAIN HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE WEST/CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY
INTO SCHOHARIE CO...AND IS EXPANDING EAST AS THE BAND SLOWLY
MIGRATES NORTHEAST. THIS APPEARS TO BE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
LEADING EDGE OF A SURGE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF FAIRLY POTENT
SHORTWAVE IN THE VICINITY OF LAKE ERIE.

LATEST HI-RES NEAR TERM MODELS SUGGEST SOME SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT AREAS NEAR AND JUST NORTH OF THE I-90 CORRIDOR THROUGH
THIS EVENING...AS ADDITIONAL SHOWERS DEVELOP FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS
THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY REGION AFTER SUNSET.

THEREFORE...HAVE ADDED CHC POPS ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED REGION
WITHIN THE I-90 CORRIDOR THROUGH THIS EVENING.

A LIGHT TO SOUTH WIND WAS STIRRING...5-10 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER
GUSTS.

TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT NEAR 60 IN THE VALLEYS...MID TO UPPER 50S
MOST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP AS MUCH AS THEY COULD...GENERALLY
BOTTOMING OUT FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. THE WIND WILL TURN
BACK TO THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST BUT REMAIN LIGHT GENERALLY UNDER 10
MPH.

A VERY WEAK BUBBLE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY FOR
SATURDAY PROVIDING OUR ENTIRE REGION WITH SOME SUNSHINE...DRY
CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THE LAST DAY OF
APRIL. THAT TRANSLATES TO HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN THE
VALLEYS....55-60 HIGHER TERRAIN. A LIGHT NORTH WIND WILL PREVAIL
AROUND 5 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AT 500 HPA A COMPLEX PATTERN IS SETTING UP THAT WILL SET REGION
UP FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF COOL...WET UNSETTLED WEATHER. IT STARTS
WITH A FLAT RIDGE ON THE E SEABOARD AS A CUT OFF LIFTS EASTWARD
SHEARS OFF IN THE MID MISS VLY INTO THIS RIDGE. ANOTHER 500HPA
SHORT WV DROPS SE OUT OF ONT...AND OVERALL THE RIDGE FLATTENS.
WITH A MAJOR E-W THERMAL RIBBON IN THE OHIO VALLEY TO MID ATLC
COAST..THE COMBINATION OF INCRG CVA...ISENTROPIC LIFT AND A SFC
LOW WILL ORGANIZE. THE LOW WILL PROPAGATE ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT IS ALSO SHIFTING N...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST.

AS A RESULT OVERRUNNING CLOUDS AND -RN WILL OVERSPREAD THE RGN SAT
NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. BY 12UTC MONDAY ONLY A SHORT WV
REMAINS IN A FLAT WESTERLY FLOW BUT ITS ENOUGH TO GRADUALLY
DEEPEN A COASTAL LOW ON THE MID ATLC COAST. PCPN WONT DIMINISH OR
END TILL LATE MONDAY WHEN THE 500HPA SHORT WV FINALLY EXITS. ONLY
A WK SFC HIGH WILL FOLLOW AND CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH OR
MAY LINGER MON NT.

OTHER THAN SOME VARIATIONS IN QPF..AND A SLIGHTLY FURTHER N GEM
TRACK THE GEM/NAM/GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PERIOD. IN
SHORT SVRL DAYS OF CLOUDY COOL...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...
PERIODS OF NEEDED RAIN...LIKELY ON THE ORDER OF 1-2 INCHES TOTAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MDL SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT TUESDAY WITH A SERIES OF SHORT WVS
DIVING SE IN ONT...THE UPR MISS VLY AND A FLAT RIDGE ALONG THE
EAST COAST AND WEAK SFC HIGH OVER NE. CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH BUT
WHETHER IT CLEARS OR BCMS PC IS QUESTIONABLE. TEMPS WILL BE NR
NORMALS.

FROM TUES NT THRU THE END OF EFP THE MDLS SPREAD IN SVRL
DIRECTIONS. THE GFS/GEM DIG A STRONG SHORT WV INTO THE S
APPALACHIANS...WITH CYCLOGENISUS ON THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT TUESDAY
NIGHT...WHICH DEEPENS...AND THE OTHER SHORT WVS PHASE WITH THIS
SYSTEM OVER THE MID ATLC. THE SFC LOW MOVES NE AND RESULTS IN A
CLASSIC INSIDE THE BENCHMARK NOR EASTER...SOAKING RAIN
DIMINISHING TO -SHRA THUR. THE OVER PLAY OF PHASING IN THESE MDLS
IS ALWAYS SUSPECT.

THE ECMWF KEEPS THE ENERGY STREAMS SEPARATE AND BRINGS A CDFNT
ACROSS THE RGN WED NT AS N BRANCH OF 500HPA TROF DIVES ACROSS THE
NE USA THU. MEANWHILE THE SOUTHERN STREAM STAYS WELL SOUTH OF
FCA...AND COASTAL CYCLOGENISUS WILL BE WELL S OF RGN IN ECMWF
SCENARIO. WPC ALSO FOLLOWS ECMWF IN ITS GUID FOR WED. BY THU ALL
GUID HAS SOME KINDA OF CUT OFF OR TROF OVER THE NE ALTHOUGH THE
EVOLUTION WAS DIFFERENT...AND CLOUDS AND -SHRA A GOOD BET.

CONFIDENCE IN MORE WET CLOUDY DAMP WEATHER IS GOOD FOR THURS...AND
FOR A DRY DAY TUESDAY. WED IS THE DAY WITH A MODERATE DEGREE OF
UNCERTAINTY. OTHERWISE THE SHORT DESCRIPTION IS ALOT OF
CLOUDS...UNSETTLED WITH NR TO BLO NORMAL TEMPS. FCST WILL USE
SUPERBLEND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITION ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT
18Z SATURDAY.

WE DID INCLUDE A LITTLE GUSTINESS AT KALB AND KPOU THROUGH 22Z (A
TEMPO GROUP).

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. THERE COULD
BE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS (VCSH) AT KPOU AFTER 23Z. WE DID INCLUDE A
PROB30 FOR SHOWERS REDUCING CONDITIONS TO MVFR AT KPOU BETWEEN 03Z
AND 09Z AS ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH.

OTHERWISE VFR CIGS ANTICIPATED TONIGHT WITH VARIABLE WINDS 5KTS OR
LESS.

TOMORROW...AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY...CLOUDS WILL DECREASE. THE WIND
WILL COME PREDOMINATELY FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST IN THE HUDSON
VALLEY...VARIABLE AT KPSF...GENERALLY UNDER 10KTS. VISIBILITIES
WILL BE UNRESTRICTED.


.OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO MAJOR FIRE WEATHER RELATED ISSUES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

SOME LIGHT RAIN IS LIKELY NEAR THE I-84 CORRIDOR TONIGHT WITH
AMOUNTS WELL UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH. OTHERWISE NOTHING MORE THAN
A FEW SPRINKLES TONIGHT FURTHER NORTH WITH A PARTIAL RECOVERY AND
LIGHT OR CALM WIND.

SATURDAY WILL BE DRY BUT RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED ONLY DROP INTO THE
30S IN THE VALLEYS/40S HIGHER TERRAIN. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
MAINLY OUT OF THE NORTH UNDER 10 MPH.

IT LOOKS AS IF OCCASIONAL RAIN WILL MOVE IN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY AS TWO LOW PRESSURES PASS TO OUR SOUTH...AND A TROUGH
DIGS IN FROM ALOFT. MOST AREAS LOOK TO RECEIVE A QUARTER INCH OR
MORE OF RAINFALL. RH VALUES WILL LIKELY REMAIN ELEVATED (OVER 60
PERCENT) BOTH DAYS.

TUESDAY IS LIKELY TO BE DRY WITH LIGHT WIND AND SOME BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE. RH VALUES WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE 30 PERCENT.

THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL RETURN LATER IN THE WORKWEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH QPF AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ANTICIPATED. THIS
RAINFALL WILL BE BENEFICIAL DUE TO DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS FOR
THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED LATER IN
THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...SNYDER
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER




000
FXUS61 KOKX 291925
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
325 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
SATURDAY. A STATIONARY FRONT SETS UP SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH LOW
PRESSURE RIDING ALONG IT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY
BUILDS ON TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE UNSETTLED
WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WITH THE APPROACH OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE/PVA...AND PLACEMENT OF
LEFT FRONT QUAD OF H3-H2 JET...EXPECT SHOWERS THAT ARE APPROACHING
TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE AS THEY QUICKLY TRAVERSE ACROSS THE AREA.

HIGHEST COVERAGE WILL BE ACROSS NE NJ...NYC METRO...SW CT AND MOST
OF LONG ISLAND. COVERAGE WILL BE LESS OVER SE CT.

OTHERWISE...PLENTY OF CLOUDS ARE ANTICIPATED AS TEMPS FALL INTO
40S...WITH LOWS SETTLING INTO THE UPPER 30S WELL INLAND.

SHOWERS DEPART AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM NW TO SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH...WITH PERSISTENT E/SE
FLOW.

PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED...BUT THE EASTERLY FLOW AND COOL
AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.
EXPECTING HIGH/S IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. WARMEST READINGS
INLAND AWAY FROM THE WATER/MARINE INFLUENCE.

UPPER WEAK RIDGE FLATTENS AS UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY MAKES IT/S
WAY EASTWARD SAT AND SAT NIGHT. LOWER AND MID LEVEL WAA BEGINS
LATER AT NIGHT.

THE SFC HIGH GIVES WAY TO AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT SAT NIGHT.
CLOUDS INCREASE AND RAIN ENCROACHES FROM THE WEST AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES. WESTERN LOCALES LIKELY SEE SOME OF THIS RAIN BEFORE
DAYBREAK...WHEREAS EASTERN ZONES MAY NOT. WILL LAYER POPS
ACCORDINGLY.

CLOUDS/EAST FLOW SHOULD PREVENT LARGE DISPARITIES IN OVERNIGHT
TEMPS...GENERALLY IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY PERIOD WITH A STATIONARY FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA AND LOW
PRESSURE RIDING ALONG IT. SW FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A MOIST
ATMOSPHERE AND SEVERAL SHORTWAVES IN THE FLOW AS WELL AS LIFT FROM
WARM ADVECTION. WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALSO IS PROGGED TO FORM ON THE
FRONT AND PASS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BRING A MUCH NEEDED STEADY SOAKING RAINFALL TO
THE REGION.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO RETURN ON TUESDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE TRI-STATE.

CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST DETAILS IS GREATLY REDUCED FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK. A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER WESTERN NOAM SHOULD LEAD TO
RENEWED TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. UPPER LOW
OVER SE CANADA HELPS DIG THE TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY BUT THE DETAILS
VARY GREATLY BETWEEN THE VARIOUS DETERMINISTIC MODELS.
THERE IS ALSO CONSIDERABLE SPREAD AMONG THE ENSEMBLES WITH SOUTHERN
STREAM AND NORTHERN STREAM INTERACTIONS AS WELL AS TIMING OF ENERGY
WITHIN THE TROUGH. EVEN WITH THESE DIFFERENCES...THERE IS STILL A
SIGNAL FOR A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SE OR MID
ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. THE 12Z ECMWF IS SLOWER AND
CUTS THE TROUGH OFF OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WHICH COULD KEEP UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS INTO FRIDAY. HAVE GONE WITH NO HIGHER THAN LOW CHANCE POP
THIS TIME PERIOD AS CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW IN SPECIFIC
DETAILS...BUT POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAINY
CONDITIONS LATE IN THE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE WELL NORMAL IN THE LOWER 50S DUE TO A
NE FLOW AND RAIN. IT IS POSSIBLE SOME LOCATIONS STRUGGLE TO GET OUT
OF THE 40S. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL CONTINUE BELOW NORMAL...BUT SEVERAL
DEGREES WARMER THAN SUNDAY. NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THEN
FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...BUT COULD BE HELD DOWN DEPENDING
ON THE POSSIBLE COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND
TO THE NORTH AND A STATIONARY FRONT WELL TO THE SOUTH. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THIS EVENING.

VFR. SCT SHOWERS OVER ERN PA WILL MOVE INTO THE NYC METRO AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THIS EVENING. NOT SEEING ANY
MVFR CONDS WITH THOSE SHOWERS UPSTREAM BUT WOULD NOT TOTALLY RULE
IT OUT THIS EVENING.

ESE WINDS ALONG THE COAST SHOULD CONTINUE TO GUST 15-20 KT INTO
THIS AFTERNOON. THOSE GUSTS COULD LAST LONGER THAN FCST INTO THIS
EVENING UNTIL WINDS START TO BACK NE AFTER PASSAGE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE.

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS 15-18 KT COULD CONTINUE UNTIL ABOUT
00Z-01Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION COULD FLUCTUATE BETWEEN
070-110 MAGNETIC THIS AFTERNOON.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION COULD FLUCTUATE BETWEEN
080-140 MAGNETIC THIS AFTERNOON.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: OCNL GUSTS 15-18 KT COULD CONTINUE UNTIL
ABOUT 00Z-01Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SAT THROUGH WED...
.SAT-SAT EVENING...VFR.
.LATE SAT NIGHT-MON...RAIN WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS.
.TUE...VFR.
.WED...CHANCE OF RAIN WITH WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH A BRIEF INCREASE IN WINDS EARLIER...SEAS ON THE OCEAN HAVE
INCREASED TO 5 TO 6 FEET. LATEST WAVE GUIDANCE IN AGREEMENT IN
KEEPING ELEVATED OCEAN SEAS THROUGH THE NIGHT TONIGHT...AND QUITE
POSSIBLY INTO THE MORNING SAT.

FOR NOW...WILL EXTEND THE SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS THROUGH THE
NIGHT...ENDING AT 6 AM. THIS MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FURTHER INTO
THE MORNING HOURS...BUT NOT TOO CONFIDENT IN THAT AT THIS TIME.

EASTERLY WINDS REMAIN WELL BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THROUGH SAT.

INCREASING NE FLOW ON SUNDAY WILL BRING THE LIKELIHOOD OF SCA CONDS
ON ALL COASTAL WATERS. OCEAN SEAS BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT AS WELL.
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS RETURN TO NEAR SHORE WATERS ON SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT
5 FT SEAS COULD LINGER INTO MONDAY. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS FORECAST ON
ALL WATERS TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS. CONDITIONS
COULD APPROACH SCA LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY DEPENDING ON LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL BE LESS THAN 1/4 INCH.

ONE HALF TO ONE INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE LATE SAT NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
THERE IS ALSO A LOW CHANCE FOR ANOTHER SOAKING RAINFALL EVENT LATE
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/PW
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...GOODMAN
MARINE...DS/PW
HYDROLOGY...DS/PW




000
FXUS61 KALY 291900
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
300 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
OUR REGION WILL BE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC
AND AN EAST-WEST FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. INTO
TONIGHT SOME CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS. SATURDAY THE HIGH WILL DOMINATE WITH FAIR COOL CONDITIONS
IN MUCH OF THE REGION. SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY THE FRONT WILL
SURGE TOWARD US AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE
ATLANTIC COAST. RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TO START THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 225 PM EDT...RADARS INDICATING ONLY A FEW POSSIBLE "SPITS"
OVER OUR WESTERN REGIONS...REALLY NOTHING MORE THAN SPRINKLES.

TO THE NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...SUNSHINE WAS PREVALENT...TO THE
SOUTH...CLOUDS. RIGHT NEAR THE I-90 CORRIDOR SUNSHINE WAS JOCKEYING
WITH THE CLOUDS SO PARTLY SUNNY COVERS IT.

A LIGHT TO SOUTH WIND WAS STIRRING...5-10 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER
GUSTS.

TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT NEAR 60 IN THE VALLEYS...MID TO UPPER 50S
MOST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

SATELLITE PICTURES NOW INDICATED THAT THE CLOUDS WERE ACTUALLY
BEGINNING TO ADVANCE BACK NORTHWARD AS ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVES
IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL INDUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LIGHT RAIN...MAINLY FROM THE I-84 CORRIDOR
SOUTHWARD. A FEW SPRINKLES COULD MAKE IT JUST ABOUT AS FAR NORTH AS
ALBANY OVERNIGHT BUT GENERALLY IT WILL JUST BE CLOUDY FROM ALBANY
NORTHWARD.

WITH THE CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP AS MUCH AS THEY
COULD...GENERALLY BOTTOMING OUT FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.
THE WIND WILL TURN BACK TO THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST BUT REMAIN
LIGHT GENERALLY UNDER 10 MPH.

A VERY WEAK BUBBLE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY FOR
SATURDAY PROVIDING OUR ENTIRE REGION WITH SOME SUNSHINE...DRY
CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THE LAST DAY OF
APRIL. THAT TRANSLATES TO HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN THE
VALLEYS....55-60 HIGHER TERRAIN. A LIGHT NORTH WIND WILL PREVAIL
AROUND 5 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AT 500 HPA A COMPLEX PATTERN IS SETTING UP THAT WILL SET REGION
UP FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF COOL...WET UNSETTLED WEATHER. IT STARTS
WITH A FLAT RIDGE ON THE E SEABOARD AS A CUT OFF LIFTS EASTWARD
     SHEARS OFF IN THE MID MISS VLY INTO THIS RIDGE. ANOTHER 500HPA
SHORT WV DROPS SE OUT OF ONT...AND OVERALL THE RIDGE FLATTENS.
WITH A MAJOR E-W THERMAL RIBBON IN THE OHIO VALLEY TO MID ATLC
COAST..THE COMBINATION OF INCRG CVA...ISENTROPIC LIFT AND A SFC
LOW WILL ORGANIZE. THE LOW WILL PROPAGATE ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT IS ALSO SHIFTING N...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST.

AS A RESULT OVERRUNNING CLOUDS AND -RN WILL OVERSPREAD THE RGN SAT
NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. BY 12UTC MONDAY ONLY A SHORT WV
REMAINS IN A FLAT WESTERLY FLOW BUT ITS ENOUGH TO GRADUALLY
DEEPEN A COASTAL LOW ON THE MID ATLC COAST. PCPN WONT DIMINISH OR
END TILL LATE MONDAY WHEN THE 500HPA SHORT WV FINALLY EXITS. ONLY
A WK SFC HIGH WILL FOLLOW AND CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH OR
MAY LINGER MON NT.

OTHER THAN SOME VARIATIONS IN QPF..AND A SLIGHTLY FURTHER N GEM
TRACK THE GEM/NAM/GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PERIOD. IN
SHORT SVRL DAYS OF CLOUDY COOL...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...
PERIODS OF NEEDED RAIN...LIKELY ON THE ORDER OF 1-2 INCHES TOTAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MDL SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT TUESDAY WITH A SERIES OF SHORT WVS
DIVING SE IN ONT...THE UPR MISS VLY AND A FLAT RIDGE ALONG THE
EAST COAST AND WEAK SFC HIGH OVER NE. CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH BUT
WHETHER IT CLEARS OR BCMS PC IS QUESTIONABLE. TEMPS WILL BE NR
NORMALS.

FROM TUES NT THRU THE END OF EFP THE MDLS SPREAD IN SVRL
DIRECTIONS. THE GFS/GEM DIG A STRONG SHORT WV INTO THE S
APPALACHIANS...WITH CYCLOGENISUS ON THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT TUESDAY
NIGHT...WHICH DEEPENS...AND THE OTHER SHORT WVS PHASE WITH THIS
SYSTEM OVER THE MID ATLC. THE SFC LOW MOVES NE AND RESULTS IN A
CLASSIC INSIDE THE BENCHMARK NOR EASTER...SOAKING RAIN
DIMINISHING TO -SHRA THUR. THE OVER PLAY OF PHASING IN THESE MDLS
IS ALWAYS SUSPECT.

THE ECMWF KEEPS THE ENERGY STREAMS SEPARATE AND BRINGS A CDFNT
ACROSS THE RGN WED NT AS N BRANCH OF 500HPA TROF DIVES ACROSS THE
NE USA THU. MEANWHILE THE SOUTHERN STREAM STAYS WELL SOUTH OF
FCA...AND COASTAL CYCLOGENISUS WILL BE WELL S OF RGN IN ECMWF
SCENARIO. WPC ALSO FOLLOWS ECMWF IN ITS GUID FOR WED. BY THU ALL
GUID HAS SOME KINDA OF CUT OFF OR TROF OVER THE NE ALTHOUGH THE
EVOLUTION WAS DIFFERENT...AND CLOUDS AND -SHRA A GOOD BET.

CONFIDENCE IN MORE WET CLOUDY DAMP WEATHER IS GOOD FOR THURS...AND
FOR A DRY DAY TUESDAY. WED IS THE DAY WITH A MODERATE DEGREE OF
UNCERTAINTY. OTHERWISE THE SHORT DESCRIPTION IS ALOT OF
CLOUDS...UNSETTLED WITH NR TO BLO NORMAL TEMPS. FCST WILL USE
SUPERBLEND.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITION ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT
18Z SATURDAY.

WE DID INCLUDE A LITTLE GUSTINESS AT KALB AND KPOU THROUGH 22Z (A
TEMPO GROUP).

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. THERE COULD
BE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS (VCSH) AT KPOU AFTER 23Z. WE DID INCLUDE A
PROB30 FOR SHOWERS REDUCING CONDITIONS TO MVFR AT KPOU BETWEEN 03Z
AND 09Z AS ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH.

OTHERWISE VFR CIGS ANTICIPATED TONIGHT WITH VARIABLE WINDS 5KTS OR
LESS.

TOMORROW...AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY...CLOUDS WILL DECREASE. THE WIND
WILL COME PREDOMINATELY FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST IN THE HUDSON
VALLEY...VARIABLE AT KPSF...GENERALLY UNDER 10KTS. VISIBILITIES
WILL BE UNRESTRICTED.


.OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO MAJOR FIRE WEATHER RELATED ISSUES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

SOME LIGHT RAIN IS LIKELY NEAR THE I-84 CORRIDOR TONIGHT WITH
AMOUNTS WELL UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH. OTHERWISE NOTHING MORE THAN
A FEW SPRINKLES TONIGHT FURTHER NORTH WITH A PARTIAL RECOVERY AND
LIGHT OR CALM WIND.

SATURDAY WILL BE DRY BUT RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED ONLY DROP INTO THE
30S IN THE VALLEYS/40S HIGHER TERRAIN. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
MAINLY OUT OF THE NORTH UNDER 10 MPH.

IT LOOKS AS IF OCCASIONAL RAIN WILL MOVE IN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY AS TWO LOW PRESSURES PASS TO OUR SOUTH...AND A TROUGH
DIGS IN FROM ALOFT. MOST AREAS LOOK TO RECEIVE A QUARTER INCH OR
MORE OF RAINFALL. RH VALUES WILL LIKELY REMAIN ELEVATED (OVER 60
PERCENT) BOTH DAYS.

TUESDAY IS LIKELY TO BE DRY WITH LIGHT WIND AND SOME BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE. RH VALUES WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE 30 PERCENT.

THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL RETURN LATER IN THE WORKWEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH QPF AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ANTICIPATED. THIS
RAINFALL WILL BE BENEFICIAL DUE TO DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS FOR
THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED LATER IN
THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...SNYDER
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER




000
FXUS61 KALY 291900
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
300 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
OUR REGION WILL BE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC
AND AN EAST-WEST FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. INTO
TONIGHT SOME CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS. SATURDAY THE HIGH WILL DOMINATE WITH FAIR COOL CONDITIONS
IN MUCH OF THE REGION. SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY THE FRONT WILL
SURGE TOWARD US AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE
ATLANTIC COAST. RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TO START THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 225 PM EDT...RADARS INDICATING ONLY A FEW POSSIBLE "SPITS"
OVER OUR WESTERN REGIONS...REALLY NOTHING MORE THAN SPRINKLES.

TO THE NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...SUNSHINE WAS PREVALENT...TO THE
SOUTH...CLOUDS. RIGHT NEAR THE I-90 CORRIDOR SUNSHINE WAS JOCKEYING
WITH THE CLOUDS SO PARTLY SUNNY COVERS IT.

A LIGHT TO SOUTH WIND WAS STIRRING...5-10 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER
GUSTS.

TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT NEAR 60 IN THE VALLEYS...MID TO UPPER 50S
MOST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

SATELLITE PICTURES NOW INDICATED THAT THE CLOUDS WERE ACTUALLY
BEGINNING TO ADVANCE BACK NORTHWARD AS ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVES
IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL INDUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LIGHT RAIN...MAINLY FROM THE I-84 CORRIDOR
SOUTHWARD. A FEW SPRINKLES COULD MAKE IT JUST ABOUT AS FAR NORTH AS
ALBANY OVERNIGHT BUT GENERALLY IT WILL JUST BE CLOUDY FROM ALBANY
NORTHWARD.

WITH THE CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP AS MUCH AS THEY
COULD...GENERALLY BOTTOMING OUT FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.
THE WIND WILL TURN BACK TO THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST BUT REMAIN
LIGHT GENERALLY UNDER 10 MPH.

A VERY WEAK BUBBLE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY FOR
SATURDAY PROVIDING OUR ENTIRE REGION WITH SOME SUNSHINE...DRY
CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THE LAST DAY OF
APRIL. THAT TRANSLATES TO HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN THE
VALLEYS....55-60 HIGHER TERRAIN. A LIGHT NORTH WIND WILL PREVAIL
AROUND 5 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AT 500 HPA A COMPLEX PATTERN IS SETTING UP THAT WILL SET REGION
UP FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF COOL...WET UNSETTLED WEATHER. IT STARTS
WITH A FLAT RIDGE ON THE E SEABOARD AS A CUT OFF LIFTS EASTWARD
     SHEARS OFF IN THE MID MISS VLY INTO THIS RIDGE. ANOTHER 500HPA
SHORT WV DROPS SE OUT OF ONT...AND OVERALL THE RIDGE FLATTENS.
WITH A MAJOR E-W THERMAL RIBBON IN THE OHIO VALLEY TO MID ATLC
COAST..THE COMBINATION OF INCRG CVA...ISENTROPIC LIFT AND A SFC
LOW WILL ORGANIZE. THE LOW WILL PROPAGATE ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT IS ALSO SHIFTING N...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST.

AS A RESULT OVERRUNNING CLOUDS AND -RN WILL OVERSPREAD THE RGN SAT
NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. BY 12UTC MONDAY ONLY A SHORT WV
REMAINS IN A FLAT WESTERLY FLOW BUT ITS ENOUGH TO GRADUALLY
DEEPEN A COASTAL LOW ON THE MID ATLC COAST. PCPN WONT DIMINISH OR
END TILL LATE MONDAY WHEN THE 500HPA SHORT WV FINALLY EXITS. ONLY
A WK SFC HIGH WILL FOLLOW AND CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH OR
MAY LINGER MON NT.

OTHER THAN SOME VARIATIONS IN QPF..AND A SLIGHTLY FURTHER N GEM
TRACK THE GEM/NAM/GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PERIOD. IN
SHORT SVRL DAYS OF CLOUDY COOL...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...
PERIODS OF NEEDED RAIN...LIKELY ON THE ORDER OF 1-2 INCHES TOTAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MDL SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT TUESDAY WITH A SERIES OF SHORT WVS
DIVING SE IN ONT...THE UPR MISS VLY AND A FLAT RIDGE ALONG THE
EAST COAST AND WEAK SFC HIGH OVER NE. CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH BUT
WHETHER IT CLEARS OR BCMS PC IS QUESTIONABLE. TEMPS WILL BE NR
NORMALS.

FROM TUES NT THRU THE END OF EFP THE MDLS SPREAD IN SVRL
DIRECTIONS. THE GFS/GEM DIG A STRONG SHORT WV INTO THE S
APPALACHIANS...WITH CYCLOGENISUS ON THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT TUESDAY
NIGHT...WHICH DEEPENS...AND THE OTHER SHORT WVS PHASE WITH THIS
SYSTEM OVER THE MID ATLC. THE SFC LOW MOVES NE AND RESULTS IN A
CLASSIC INSIDE THE BENCHMARK NOR EASTER...SOAKING RAIN
DIMINISHING TO -SHRA THUR. THE OVER PLAY OF PHASING IN THESE MDLS
IS ALWAYS SUSPECT.

THE ECMWF KEEPS THE ENERGY STREAMS SEPARATE AND BRINGS A CDFNT
ACROSS THE RGN WED NT AS N BRANCH OF 500HPA TROF DIVES ACROSS THE
NE USA THU. MEANWHILE THE SOUTHERN STREAM STAYS WELL SOUTH OF
FCA...AND COASTAL CYCLOGENISUS WILL BE WELL S OF RGN IN ECMWF
SCENARIO. WPC ALSO FOLLOWS ECMWF IN ITS GUID FOR WED. BY THU ALL
GUID HAS SOME KINDA OF CUT OFF OR TROF OVER THE NE ALTHOUGH THE
EVOLUTION WAS DIFFERENT...AND CLOUDS AND -SHRA A GOOD BET.

CONFIDENCE IN MORE WET CLOUDY DAMP WEATHER IS GOOD FOR THURS...AND
FOR A DRY DAY TUESDAY. WED IS THE DAY WITH A MODERATE DEGREE OF
UNCERTAINTY. OTHERWISE THE SHORT DESCRIPTION IS ALOT OF
CLOUDS...UNSETTLED WITH NR TO BLO NORMAL TEMPS. FCST WILL USE
SUPERBLEND.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITION ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT
18Z SATURDAY.

WE DID INCLUDE A LITTLE GUSTINESS AT KALB AND KPOU THROUGH 22Z (A
TEMPO GROUP).

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. THERE COULD
BE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS (VCSH) AT KPOU AFTER 23Z. WE DID INCLUDE A
PROB30 FOR SHOWERS REDUCING CONDITIONS TO MVFR AT KPOU BETWEEN 03Z
AND 09Z AS ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH.

OTHERWISE VFR CIGS ANTICIPATED TONIGHT WITH VARIABLE WINDS 5KTS OR
LESS.

TOMORROW...AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY...CLOUDS WILL DECREASE. THE WIND
WILL COME PREDOMINATELY FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST IN THE HUDSON
VALLEY...VARIABLE AT KPSF...GENERALLY UNDER 10KTS. VISIBILITIES
WILL BE UNRESTRICTED.


.OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO MAJOR FIRE WEATHER RELATED ISSUES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

SOME LIGHT RAIN IS LIKELY NEAR THE I-84 CORRIDOR TONIGHT WITH
AMOUNTS WELL UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH. OTHERWISE NOTHING MORE THAN
A FEW SPRINKLES TONIGHT FURTHER NORTH WITH A PARTIAL RECOVERY AND
LIGHT OR CALM WIND.

SATURDAY WILL BE DRY BUT RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED ONLY DROP INTO THE
30S IN THE VALLEYS/40S HIGHER TERRAIN. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
MAINLY OUT OF THE NORTH UNDER 10 MPH.

IT LOOKS AS IF OCCASIONAL RAIN WILL MOVE IN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY AS TWO LOW PRESSURES PASS TO OUR SOUTH...AND A TROUGH
DIGS IN FROM ALOFT. MOST AREAS LOOK TO RECEIVE A QUARTER INCH OR
MORE OF RAINFALL. RH VALUES WILL LIKELY REMAIN ELEVATED (OVER 60
PERCENT) BOTH DAYS.

TUESDAY IS LIKELY TO BE DRY WITH LIGHT WIND AND SOME BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE. RH VALUES WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE 30 PERCENT.

THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL RETURN LATER IN THE WORKWEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH QPF AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ANTICIPATED. THIS
RAINFALL WILL BE BENEFICIAL DUE TO DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS FOR
THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED LATER IN
THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...SNYDER
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER




000
FXUS61 KOKX 291855
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
255 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK LOW MOVES FARTHER OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WITH ANOTHER WEAK LOW APPROACHING FROM THE WEST THROUGH
TONIGHT. FOR SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY RETURNS AS IT
BUILDS IN FROM CENTRAL CANADA. COOL AND UNSETTLED SUN AND MON AS
A STATIONARY FRONT SETS UP S OF THE REGION. WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS
IN ON TUE...FOLLOWED BY A POTENTIAL FRONTAL SYS FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ANY COVERAGE OF SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN WILL BE QUITE LOW UNTIL AN AREA
OF RAIN DEVELOPS LATE IN THE DAY AHEAD OF LEFT FRONT QUAD OF UPPER
JET/SHORTWAVE.

AT THE SURFACE...WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE INTO
THE ATLANTIC WITH ANOTHER WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. THERE WILL BE ABUNDANT CLOUDS AND WITH THE PRESSURE
PATTERN...EASTERLY FLOW WILL BE SET IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY.
ANOTHER COOL DAY IS EXPECTED. LITTLE CHANGE TO TEMPS IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
FOR TONIGHT...HIGHEST CHANCES OF RAIN ARE THIS EVENING WITH THE
LEFT FRONT QUAD OF THE UPPER JET RIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
SHIFTS SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT WITH A LIKEWISE DECREASE OF POPS FOR
RAIN AS THE LOW SHIFTS FARTHER OUT TO SEA AT THE SURFACE. ABUNDANT
CLOUDS AND ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUE SO USED A RELATIVELY WARMER BLEND
OF GUIDANCE FOR LOWS...1/3 NAM12 SFC TEMPERATURES AND 2/3 MAV
GUIDANCE.

FOR SATURDAY...A BRIEF REVISIT OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH RIDGING
ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR RELATIVELY WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY. THE SOURCE REGION OF THE HIGH IS IN
CENTRAL CANADA. HIGHEST TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS THE INTERIOR
WITH A SE FLOW IN PLACE IN THE AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL KEEP COASTAL
LOCATIONS RELATIVELY COOLER WITH MORE MARINE INFLUENCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
00Z MODEL SUITE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST PERIODS OF RAINY WX SUN AND
MON. QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT SETS UP S OF THE REGION SAT NGT THRU THE
REST OF THE WEEKEND. DEEP TROF ACROSS THE WRN CONUS SHOULD TAP THE
SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC AND FUNNEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. MOISTURE
STREAM INTO MEXICO ALREADY APPARENT ON WATER VAPOR. RESIDUAL
CONVECTION PROGGED TO SUPPLY EMBEDDED SHRTWV ENERGY...WITH RAIN CHCS
THEREFORE BREAKING OUT LATE SAT NGT AND PARTICULARLY ON SUN. LOW
PRES DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT THEN LIKELY IMPACTS THE AREA DURING
THE SUN NGT-MON TIME PERIOD. THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD
AMONGST THE GFS AND ECMWF WRT THE EXACT LATITUDE OF THE LOW PRES
SYS...AND AS A RESULT THE AMT OF RAIN WHICH CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE CWA. TOO MANY MOVING PARTS TO ADEQUATELY PINPOINT TIMING ON
SUN...SO HAVE KEPT POPS AT LIKELY. WRT THE LOW...SYS IS TOO FAR OUT
TO RAISE POPS ABV HIGH CHC ATTM. IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW...CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT ON TUE. THIS COULD SPARK A FEW SHWRS OR SPRINKLES...AS
LAPSE RATES PER THE GFS AROUND 9C/KM UP TO H85. H5 LOW DROPS TO
JAMES BAY TUE NGT...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF IN AGREEMENT ON
THIS...AND EVENTUALLY CARVES OUT A BROAD UPR TROF ACROSS THE NERN
CONUS WED AND THU. THIS SUPPORTS CHCS FOR AT LEAST SHWRS...WITH THE
SUGGESTION OF A POTENTIAL SPINUP OFFSHORE WHICH WOULD BRING A CHC
FOR MORE ORGANIZED RAINFALL IN THE WED-THU PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND
TO THE NORTH AND A STATIONARY FRONT WELL TO THE SOUTH. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THIS EVENING.

VFR. SCT SHOWERS OVER ERN PA WILL MOVE INTO THE NYC METRO AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THIS EVENING. NOT SEEING ANY
MVFR CONDS WITH THOSE SHOWERS UPSTREAM BUT WOULD NOT TOTALLY RULE
IT OUT THIS EVENING.

ESE WINDS ALONG THE COAST SHOULD CONTINUE TO GUST 15-20 KT INTO
THIS AFTERNOON. THOSE GUSTS COULD LAST LONGER THAN FCST INTO THIS
EVENING UNTIL WINDS START TO BACK NE AFTER PASSAGE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE.

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS 15-18 KT COULD CONTINUE UNTIL ABOUT
00Z-01Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION COULD FLUCTUATE BETWEEN
070-110 MAGNETIC THIS AFTERNOON.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION COULD FLUCTUATE BETWEEN
080-140 MAGNETIC THIS AFTERNOON.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: OCNL GUSTS 15-18 KT COULD CONTINUE UNTIL
ABOUT 00Z-01Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SAT THROUGH WED...
.SAT-SAT EVENING...VFR.
.LATE SAT NIGHT-MON...RAIN WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS.
.TUE...VFR.
.WED...CHANCE OF RAIN WITH WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS.

&&

.MARINE...
HAZARDOUS OCEAN SEAS OF 5 TO 6 FT COULD LINGER WELL INTO THE
NIGHT TONIGHT. THIS WILL BE A MARGINAL EVENT AS OTHER WATERS AND
ALL WINDS WILL BE BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH SAT NIGHT.

NE WINDS INCREASE ON SUNDAY WITH SCA CONDS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
ON THE OCEAN. LINGERING SEAS AROUND 5 FT ON THE OCEAN MON...THEN
WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS TUE. POTENTIAL FOR 5 FT SEAS ON THE
OCEAN AGAIN ON WED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH TONIGHT SHOULD BE LESS THAN 1/4 INCH.

AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE LATE SAT NGT THRU SUNDAY.
ADDITIONAL RAIN IS POSSIBLE ON MON...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT
TRACK...SPEED AND INTENSITY OF PASSING LOW PRES.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/JM
NEAR TERM...JMC/JM/PW
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...GOODMAN
MARINE...JMC/JM/PW
HYDROLOGY...JMC/JM




000
FXUS61 KOKX 291855
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
255 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK LOW MOVES FARTHER OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WITH ANOTHER WEAK LOW APPROACHING FROM THE WEST THROUGH
TONIGHT. FOR SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY RETURNS AS IT
BUILDS IN FROM CENTRAL CANADA. COOL AND UNSETTLED SUN AND MON AS
A STATIONARY FRONT SETS UP S OF THE REGION. WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS
IN ON TUE...FOLLOWED BY A POTENTIAL FRONTAL SYS FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ANY COVERAGE OF SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN WILL BE QUITE LOW UNTIL AN AREA
OF RAIN DEVELOPS LATE IN THE DAY AHEAD OF LEFT FRONT QUAD OF UPPER
JET/SHORTWAVE.

AT THE SURFACE...WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE INTO
THE ATLANTIC WITH ANOTHER WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. THERE WILL BE ABUNDANT CLOUDS AND WITH THE PRESSURE
PATTERN...EASTERLY FLOW WILL BE SET IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY.
ANOTHER COOL DAY IS EXPECTED. LITTLE CHANGE TO TEMPS IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
FOR TONIGHT...HIGHEST CHANCES OF RAIN ARE THIS EVENING WITH THE
LEFT FRONT QUAD OF THE UPPER JET RIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
SHIFTS SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT WITH A LIKEWISE DECREASE OF POPS FOR
RAIN AS THE LOW SHIFTS FARTHER OUT TO SEA AT THE SURFACE. ABUNDANT
CLOUDS AND ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUE SO USED A RELATIVELY WARMER BLEND
OF GUIDANCE FOR LOWS...1/3 NAM12 SFC TEMPERATURES AND 2/3 MAV
GUIDANCE.

FOR SATURDAY...A BRIEF REVISIT OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH RIDGING
ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR RELATIVELY WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY. THE SOURCE REGION OF THE HIGH IS IN
CENTRAL CANADA. HIGHEST TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS THE INTERIOR
WITH A SE FLOW IN PLACE IN THE AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL KEEP COASTAL
LOCATIONS RELATIVELY COOLER WITH MORE MARINE INFLUENCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
00Z MODEL SUITE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST PERIODS OF RAINY WX SUN AND
MON. QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT SETS UP S OF THE REGION SAT NGT THRU THE
REST OF THE WEEKEND. DEEP TROF ACROSS THE WRN CONUS SHOULD TAP THE
SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC AND FUNNEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. MOISTURE
STREAM INTO MEXICO ALREADY APPARENT ON WATER VAPOR. RESIDUAL
CONVECTION PROGGED TO SUPPLY EMBEDDED SHRTWV ENERGY...WITH RAIN CHCS
THEREFORE BREAKING OUT LATE SAT NGT AND PARTICULARLY ON SUN. LOW
PRES DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT THEN LIKELY IMPACTS THE AREA DURING
THE SUN NGT-MON TIME PERIOD. THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD
AMONGST THE GFS AND ECMWF WRT THE EXACT LATITUDE OF THE LOW PRES
SYS...AND AS A RESULT THE AMT OF RAIN WHICH CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE CWA. TOO MANY MOVING PARTS TO ADEQUATELY PINPOINT TIMING ON
SUN...SO HAVE KEPT POPS AT LIKELY. WRT THE LOW...SYS IS TOO FAR OUT
TO RAISE POPS ABV HIGH CHC ATTM. IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW...CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT ON TUE. THIS COULD SPARK A FEW SHWRS OR SPRINKLES...AS
LAPSE RATES PER THE GFS AROUND 9C/KM UP TO H85. H5 LOW DROPS TO
JAMES BAY TUE NGT...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF IN AGREEMENT ON
THIS...AND EVENTUALLY CARVES OUT A BROAD UPR TROF ACROSS THE NERN
CONUS WED AND THU. THIS SUPPORTS CHCS FOR AT LEAST SHWRS...WITH THE
SUGGESTION OF A POTENTIAL SPINUP OFFSHORE WHICH WOULD BRING A CHC
FOR MORE ORGANIZED RAINFALL IN THE WED-THU PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND
TO THE NORTH AND A STATIONARY FRONT WELL TO THE SOUTH. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THIS EVENING.

VFR. SCT SHOWERS OVER ERN PA WILL MOVE INTO THE NYC METRO AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THIS EVENING. NOT SEEING ANY
MVFR CONDS WITH THOSE SHOWERS UPSTREAM BUT WOULD NOT TOTALLY RULE
IT OUT THIS EVENING.

ESE WINDS ALONG THE COAST SHOULD CONTINUE TO GUST 15-20 KT INTO
THIS AFTERNOON. THOSE GUSTS COULD LAST LONGER THAN FCST INTO THIS
EVENING UNTIL WINDS START TO BACK NE AFTER PASSAGE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE.

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS 15-18 KT COULD CONTINUE UNTIL ABOUT
00Z-01Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION COULD FLUCTUATE BETWEEN
070-110 MAGNETIC THIS AFTERNOON.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION COULD FLUCTUATE BETWEEN
080-140 MAGNETIC THIS AFTERNOON.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: OCNL GUSTS 15-18 KT COULD CONTINUE UNTIL
ABOUT 00Z-01Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SAT THROUGH WED...
.SAT-SAT EVENING...VFR.
.LATE SAT NIGHT-MON...RAIN WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS.
.TUE...VFR.
.WED...CHANCE OF RAIN WITH WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS.

&&

.MARINE...
HAZARDOUS OCEAN SEAS OF 5 TO 6 FT COULD LINGER WELL INTO THE
NIGHT TONIGHT. THIS WILL BE A MARGINAL EVENT AS OTHER WATERS AND
ALL WINDS WILL BE BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH SAT NIGHT.

NE WINDS INCREASE ON SUNDAY WITH SCA CONDS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
ON THE OCEAN. LINGERING SEAS AROUND 5 FT ON THE OCEAN MON...THEN
WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS TUE. POTENTIAL FOR 5 FT SEAS ON THE
OCEAN AGAIN ON WED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH TONIGHT SHOULD BE LESS THAN 1/4 INCH.

AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE LATE SAT NGT THRU SUNDAY.
ADDITIONAL RAIN IS POSSIBLE ON MON...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT
TRACK...SPEED AND INTENSITY OF PASSING LOW PRES.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/JM
NEAR TERM...JMC/JM/PW
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...GOODMAN
MARINE...JMC/JM/PW
HYDROLOGY...JMC/JM




000
FXUS61 KALY 291842
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
242 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
OUR REGION WILL BE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC
AND AN EAST-WEST FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. INTO
TONIGHT SOME CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS. SATURDAY THE HIGH WILL DOMINATE WITH FAIR COOL CONDITIONS
IN MUCH OF THE REGION. SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY THE FRONT WILL
SURGE TOWARD US AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE
ATLANTIC COAST. RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TO START THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 225 PM EDT...RADARS INDICATING ONLY A FEW POSSIBLE "SPITS"
OVER OUR WESTERN REGIONS...REALLY NOTHING MORE THAN SPRINKLES.

TO THE NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...SUNSHINE WAS PREVALENT...TO THE
SOUTH...CLOUDS. RIGHT NEAR THE I-90 CORRIDOR SUNSHINE WAS JOCKEYING
WITH THE CLOUDS SO PARTLY SUNNY COVERS IT.

A LIGHT TO SOUTH WIND WAS STIRRING...5-10 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER
GUSTS.

TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT NEAR 60 IN THE VALLEYS...MID TO UPPER 50S
MOST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

SATELLITE PICTURES NOW INDICATED THAT THE CLOUDS WERE ACTUALLY
BEGINNING TO ADVANCE BACK NORTHWARD AS ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVES
IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL INDUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LIGHT RAIN...MAINLY FROM THE I-84 CORRIDOR
SOUTHWARD. A FEW SPRINKLES COULD MAKE IT JUST ABOUT AS FAR NORTH AS
ALBANY OVERNIGHT BUT GENERALLY IT WILL JUST BE CLOUDY FROM ALBANY
NORTHWARD.

WITH THE CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP AS MUCH AS THEY
COULD...GENERALLY BOTTOMING OUT FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.
THE WIND WILL TURN BACK TO THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST BUT REMAIN
LIGHT GENERALLY UNDER 10 MPH.

A VERY WEAK BUBBLE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY FOR
SATURDAY PROVIDING OUR ENTIRE REGION WITH SOME SUNSHINE...DRY
CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THE LAST DAY OF
APRIL. THAT TRANSLATES TO HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN THE
VALLEYS....55-60 HIGHER TERRAIN. A LIGHT NORTH WIND WILL PREVAIL
AROUND 5 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AT 500 HPA A COMPLEX PATTERN IS SETTING UP THAT WILL SET REGION
UP FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF COOL...WET UNSETTLED WEATHER. IT STARTS
WITH A FLAT RIDGE ON THE E SEABOARD AS A CUT OFF LIFTS EASTWARD
     SHEARS OFF IN THE MID MISS VLY INTO THIS RIDGE. ANOTHER 500HPA
SHORT WV DROPS SE OUT OF ONT...AND OVERALL THE RIDGE FLATTENS.
WITH A MAJOR E-W THERMAL RIBBON IN THE OHIO VALLEY TO MID ATLC
COAST..THE COMBINATION OF INCRG CVA...ISENTROPIC LIFT AND A SFC
LOW WILL ORGANIZE. THE LOW WILL PROPAGATE ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT IS ALSO SHIFTING N...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST.

AS A RESULT OVERRUNNING CLOUDS AND -RN WILL OVERSPREAD THE RGN SAT
NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. BY 12UTC MONDAY ONLY A SHORT WV
REMAINS IN A FLAT WESTERLY FLOW BUT ITS ENOUGH TO GRADUALLY
DEEPEN A COASTAL LOW ON THE MID ATLC COAST. PCPN WONT DIMINISH OR
END TILL LATE MONDAY WHEN THE 500HPA SHORT WV FINALLY EXITS. ONLY
A WK SFC HIGH WILL FOLLOW AND CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH OR
MAY LINGER MON NT.

OTHER THAN SOME VARIATIONS IN QPF..AND A SLIGHTLY FURTHER N GEM
TRACK THE GEM/NAM/GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PERIOD. IN
SHORT SVRL DAYS OF CLOUDY COOL...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...
PERIODS OF NEEDED RAIN...LIKELY ON THE ORDER OF 1-2 INCHES TOTAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MDL SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT TUESDAY WITH A SERIES OF SHORT WVS
DIVING SE IN ONT...THE UPR MISS VLY AND A FLAT RIDGE ALONG THE
EAST COAST AND WEAK SFC HIGH OVER NE. CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH BUT
WHETHER IT CLEARS OR BCMS PC IS QUESTIONABLE. TEMPS WILL BE NR
NORMALS.

FROM TUES NT THRU THE END OF EFP THE MDLS SPREAD IN SVRL
DIRECTIONS. THE GFS/GEM DIG A STRONG SHORT WV INTO THE S
APPALACHIANS...WITH CYCLOGENISUS ON THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT TUESDAY
NIGHT...WHICH DEEPENS...AND THE OTHER SHORT WVS PHASE WITH THIS
SYSTEM OVER THE MID ATLC. THE SFC LOW MOVES NE AND RESULTS IN A
CLASSIC INSIDE THE BENCHMARK NOR EASTER...SOAKING RAIN
DIMINISHING TO -SHRA THUR. THE OVER PLAY OF PHASING IN THESE MDLS
IS ALWAYS SUSPECT.

THE ECMWF KEEPS THE ENERGY STREAMS SEPARATE AND BRINGS A CDFNT
ACROSS THE RGN WED NT AS N BRANCH OF 500HPA TROF DIVES ACROSS THE
NE USA THU. MEANWHILE THE SOUTHERN STREAM STAYS WELL SOUTH OF
FCA...AND COASTAL CYCLOGENISUS WILL BE WELL S OF RGN IN ECMWF
SCENARIO. WPC ALSO FOLLOWS ECMWF IN ITS GUID FOR WED. BY THU ALL
GUID HAS SOME KINDA OF CUT OFF OR TROF OVER THE NE ALTHOUGH THE
EVOLUTION WAS DIFFERENT...AND CLOUDS AND -SHRA A GOOD BET.

CONFIDENCE IN MORE WET CLOUDY DAMP WEATHER IS GOOD FOR THURS...AND
FOR A DRY DAY TUESDAY. WED IS THE DAY WITH A MODERATE DEGREE OF
UNCERTAINTY. OTHERWISE THE SHORT DESCRIPTION IS ALOT OF
CLOUDS...UNSETTLED WITH NR TO BLO NORMAL TEMPS. FCST WILL USE
SUPERBLEND.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITION ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 18 HRS ENDING 06Z/SAT
FOR KGFL...KPSF...KALB...AND KPOU.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE IN FROM S/SE QUEBEC THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS PASS TO
THE SOUTH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...AND MID ATLANTIC REGION.

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING...BUT SOME LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF KALB WHERE CIGS MAY LOWER
TO 5-6 KFT AGL NEAR KPOU BTW 14Z-18Z.  THESE LOWER CIGS WILL EXPAND
NORTHWARD TO KALB-KPSF IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH 4-6 KFT AGL CIGS.
EXPECT MID OR HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO PREVAIL AT KGFL INTO THE
AFTERNOON.  SOME LIGHT RAIN OR RAIN SHOWERS MAY REACH LOCATIONS
SOUTH OF KALB-KPSF IN THE EARLY EVENING...AND VCSH GROUPS WERE USED
SHORTLY BEFORE OR JUST AFTER 00Z/SAT.  THE SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THE
LONGEST AT KPOU/KPSF...AND SOME HIGH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL LIKELY
LINGER AT KPOU.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE N TO NE AROUND 5 KTS THIS MORNING...AND
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT 5 KTS PRIOR TO NOONTIME. EXPECT E
TO S/SE WINDS OF LESS 7 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON...BECOMING LIGHT TO
CALM AFTER 00Z/SAT.

.OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NO MAJOR FIRE WEATHER RELATED ISSUES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

SOME LIGHT RAIN IS LIKELY NEAR THE I-84 CORRIDOR TONIGHT WITH
AMOUNTS WELL UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH. OTHERWISE NOTHING MORE THAN
A FEW SPRINKLES TONIGHT FURTHER NORTH WITH A PARTIAL RECOVERY AND
LIGHT OR CALM WIND.

SATURDAY WILL BE DRY BUT RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED ONLY DROP INTO THE
30S IN THE VALLEYS/40S HIGHER TERRAIN. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
MAINLY OUT OF THE NORTH UNDER 10 MPH.

IT LOOKS AS IF OCCASIONAL RAIN WILL MOVE IN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY AS TWO LOW PRESSURES PASS TO OUR SOUTH...AND A TROUGH
DIGS IN FROM ALOFT. MOST AREAS LOOK TO RECEIVE A QUARTER INCH OR
MORE OF RAINFALL. RH VALUES WILL LIKELY REMAIN ELEVATED (OVER 60
PERCENT) BOTH DAYS.

TUESDAY IS LIKELY TO BE DRY WITH LIGHT WIND AND SOME BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE. RH VALUES WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE 30 PERCENT.

THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL RETURN LATER IN THE WORKWEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH QPF AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ANTICIPATED. THIS
RAINFALL WILL BE BENEFICIAL DUE TO DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS FOR
THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED LATER IN
THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...SNYDER
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER




000
FXUS61 KBOX 291830
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
230 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

 * UPDATES TO NEAR AND SHORT TERM FORECAST PORTIONS ONLY...

SHOWERS S/W OVERNIGHT WITH ONE MORE DAY OF QUIET WEATHER AND
LINGERING HIGH PRESSURE FOR SATURDAY. UNSETTLED AND COOL WEATHER
FOLLOWS FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND. A BRIEF DRYING TREND TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY IS ONLY
FOLLOWED THEREAFTER BY MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

INTO THIS EVENING...

THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR N/E IS KEEPING ALL
BUT SW NEW ENGLAND FAIRLY CLEAR. THOUGH ORIGINATING FLOW OFF THE
GULF OF MAINE IS ALSO KEEPING IT COOL. HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE
UPPER 50S TO NEAR THE 60 DEGREE MARK WITH E FLOW.

NUISANCE CLOUDS CONTINUE ACROSS W MASS AND MUCH OF CT ASSOCIATED
WITH MID LEVEL ENERGY AND DECENT MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE H85-5
LAYER. EVALUATING UPSTREAM ACROSS THE E GREAT LAKES...CAN SEE THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE SYNOPTIC DISTURBANCE FOR THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE W TO E ACROSS THE
REGION...SO SOONER RATHER THAN LATER EVERYONE WILL BE BENEATH THE
BLANKET.

TONIGHT...

S/W FOCUS OF WET WEATHER. POTENT VORTEX SWEEPING OUT TO SEA S OF NEW
ENGLAND WITH FOCUS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE COLLOCATED WITH THE LEFT-
FRONT QUADRANT OF AN ACCOMPANYING JET MAX. LOTS OF MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH. LOOKING AT A DECENT SHOT OF RAIN OVER SW NEW ENGLAND POSSIBLY
DRAGGING AS FAR N/E INTO CENTRAL AND SE NEW ENGLAND UP AGAINST HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MAINE. A CONSENSUS OF FORECAST GUIDANCE
WITH MOS AND SREF TOUTED MORE SO GIVEN SUCH A MARGINAL EVENT AND
WIGGLE ROOM. PALTRY AMOUNTS WITH UPWARDS OF A TENTH MAINLY OVER SW
CT.

AN EVENING INTO MIDNIGHT AFFAIR WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS AND
TEMPERATURES HOLDING RELATIVELY STEADY. ITS AFTER MIDNIGHT TOWARDS
SATURDAY MORNING THAT WE CLEAR OUT AND SUBSEQUENTLY TEMPERATURES
DROP TO LOWS AROUND THE UPPER 30S. BREEZY SE FLOW EARLY BECOMING
LIGHT WITH PASSAGE WHICH WITH CLEARING WILL AID WITH TEMPERATURES
DROPPING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

SATURDAY...

IF YOU HAVE ANY OUTDOOR PLANS THIS DAY IS THE PICK OF THE WEEKEND.
COMBINED DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT AHEAD OF AN
ANTICIPATED DISTURBANCE FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL MAKE FOR A GOOD
DAY OF ANABATIC FLOW AS WINDS ARE LIGHT ALL THE WAY UP TO ROUGHLY
H7. ANTICIPATING AN INTERIOR FLOW UP THE MOUNTAIN SLOPES WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF CUMULUS ATOP. A LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE IF ALL COMES
TOGETHER...SOME OF THE HIGH-RES GUIDANCE IS SPITTING OUT SOME WET
WEATHER ALONG THE RIDGE OF THE BERKSHIRES. COULD NOT RULE OUT A
SPRINKLE AS MOISTURE POOLS BENEATH A DRY-SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AROUND
H8.

OTHERWISE WARMING WELL INTO THE 60S PRIOR TO SOME THIN HIGH CLOUDS
ENCROACHING FROM THE W BY EVENING. COOL ALONG THE SHORES WITH THE
ONSHORE FLOW. WARMEST CONDITIONS IN THE CT RIVER VALLEY ESPECIALLY
SPRINGFIELD-HARTFORD METRO. COULD NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED 70 DEGREE
READING.

SATURDAY NIGHT...

MAIN QUESTION IS HOW EARLY WILL THE RAIN MOVE IN? CONSIDERING HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS INFLUENTIAL ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE WITH RIDGING
TO THE W ALBEIT WEAK AS TOP-DOWN MOISTENING PROCEEDS TO THE W PARENT
WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND FRONTOGENESIS WITH THE WARM FRONTAL
APPROACH...CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY ENCROACHING
INTO THE CT RIVER VALLEY BY SUNDAY MORNING. COLUMN IS FAIRLY MOIST
AND WITH THE WEAK LIFT PRESENT BASED ON SOUNDING ANALYSIS...IT IS
ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME WET WEATHER. SO LIKELY TO CHANCE POPS FROM
THE BERKSHIRES INTO THE CT RIVER VALLEY. LOWERING AND THICKENING OF
CLOUDS INTO MORNING WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES RATHER STEADY.
MILDER TO THE W WITH THE THICKER BLANKET FOR LONGER...COOLER E WITH
CLOUDS LESSER SO. LOWS AROUND THE LOW TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSEASONABLY COOL WITH PERIODS OF RAIN SUN INTO MON
* DRYING TREND LIKELY TUE AND POSSIBLY WED ALONG WITH MILDER TEMPS
* MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE THU

OVERVIEW...
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN DEVELOPING AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND W CANADA WITH DOWNSTREAM TROF OVER THE GT
LAKES. EXPECT A PERIOD OF COOL AND WET CONDITIONS SUN INTO MON AS
LOW PRES TRACKS S OF NEW ENG. A BRIEF DRYING TREND AND MILDER TEMPS
WILL FOLLOW TUE AND POSSIBLY INTO WED IN BETWEEN SHORTWAVES...THEN
MID LEVEL TROF AMPLIFIES OVER THE LAKES WITH ANOTHER PERIOD OF
COOLER AND WET WEATHER POSSIBLE BY THU.

SAT NIGHT...
HIGH PRES ACROSS E NEW ENG WILL SLOWLY MOVE E AS OVERRUNNING
MOISTURE APPROACHES FROM THE SW. GFS IS FASTEST MOVING RAIN INTO SNE
LATER SAT NIGHT...WHILE ECMWF/NAM/GGEM/UKMET KEEP RAIN TO THE WEST.
FOLLOWED CONSENSUS OF DRY FORECAST WITH JUST A LOW PROB OF LIGHT
RAIN REACHING W NEW ENG LATE SAT NIGHT.

SUN INTO MON...
MOST OF THIS PERIOD LIKELY TO BE COOL AND WET. INITIAL SHOT OF RAIN
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION DURING SUN FROM WEST TO EASY AS OVERRUNNING
OF SFC BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH LEADS TO DEEP MOISTURE AND MODEST LIFT
OVERSPREADING THE REGION. RAIN MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL SUN AFTERNOON
ACROSS E NEW ENG. LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS MOSTLY IN
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S SUNDAY. A SECOND PERIOD OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED SUN NIGHT INTO MON AS LOW PRES TRACKS S OF NEW
ENG...ALTHOUGH GFS LIKELY OVERDONE WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. ANOTHER
CHILLY DAY MON WITH TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL.

TUE INTO WED...
WEAK HIGH PRES SHOULD BRING MAINLY DRY WEATHER TUE WITH TEMPS
REBOUNDING TO NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST INTO WED AS MID LEVEL TROF
AXIS STILL BACK ACROSS GT LAKES.

THU...
LOOKS LIKE UNSETTLED WEATHER AND COOLER TEMPS WILL RETURN AS MID
LEVEL TROF AMPLIFIES ACROSS NE WITH POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER COASTAL
WAVE TO THE S OF NEW ENG WITH EASTERLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...

BKN-OVC LOW END VFR CIGS WITH -RA S/W EVENING INTO MIDNIGHT...
CLEARING TOWARDS MORNING. DOMINANT E FLOW.

SATURDAY...

SCT-BKN LOW-END VFR CIGS ACROSS THE INTERIOR MAINLY OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN. DOMINANT E FLOW.

SATURDAY NIGHT...

BKN-OVC CLOUDS LOWERING TOWARDS MORNING DOWN TO LOW-END VFR WITH A
LOW RISK OF MVFR. -RA FOR TERMINALS MAINLY W OF ORH.

KBOS TERMINAL...VFR. CONTINUED E FLOW.

KBDL TERMINAL...VFR.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS WITH DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS TO MVFR AND LOCALIZED IFR POSSIBLE IN PERIODS OF RAIN.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. DRYING TREND WITH VFR AND LIGHT
WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...

INCREASING E/SE FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW OUT OF THE GREAT
LAKES INTO THIS EVENING...EXITING TOWARDS SATURDAY MORNING. AN
ISOLATED GUST UP TO 25 KTS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. SEAS BUILDING
POTENTIALLY UP TO 5 FEET ON THE S OUTER WATERS BUT WILL HOLD AT 4
FEET.

SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...

CONTINUED E/SE FLOW THOUGH NOT AS BREEZY WITH GUSTS REMAINING
BELOW 20 KTS. GOOD BOATING WEATHER. CLOUDS ON THE INCREASE LATE
TOWARDS SUNDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. INCREASING EASTERLY
WINDS SUN AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...THEN SHIFTING TO NORTH DURING MON
AS LOW PRES MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. A PERIOD OF EASTERLY SCA
GUSTS POSSIBLE SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND AGAIN DURING MON AS
WINDS SHIFT TO NORTH. ROUGH SEAS GIVEN THE LONG ENE FETCH. VSBYS
REDUCED AT TIMES IN RAIN AND PATCHY FOG.

TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LIGHT WINDS BUT LEFTOVER SCA SEAS LIKELY
FOR EASTERN WATERS FROM ENE SWELLS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KJC/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/SIPPRELL
MARINE...KJC/SIPPRELL




000
FXUS61 KALY 291820
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
225 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
OUR REGION WILL BE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC
AND AN EAST-WEST FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. INTO
TONIGHT SOME CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS. SATURDAY THE HIGH WILL DOMINATE WITH FAIR COOL CONDITIONS
IN MUCH OF THE REGION. SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY THE FRONT WILL
SURGE TOWARD US AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE
ATLANTIC COAST. RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TO START THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 225 PM EDT...RADARS INDICATING ONLY A FEW POSSIBLE "SPITS"
OVER OUR WESTERN REGIONS...REALLY NOTHING MORE THAN SPRINKLES.

TO THE NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...SUNSHINE WAS PREVALENT...TO THE
SOUTH...CLOUDS. RIGHT NEAR THE I-90 CORRIDOR SUNSHINE WAS JOCKEYING
WITH THE CLOUDS SO PARTLY SUNNY COVERS IT.

A LIGHT TO SOUTH WIND WAS STIRRING...5-10 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER
GUSTS.

TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT NEAR 60 IN THE VALLEYS...MID TO UPPER 50S
MOST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

SATELLITE PICTURES NOW INDICATED THAT THE CLOUDS WERE ACTUALLY
BEGINNING TO ADVANCE BACK NORTHWARD AS ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVES
IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL INDUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LIGHT RAIN...MAINLY FROM THE I-84 CORRIDOR
SOUTHWARD. A FEW SPRINKLES COULD MAKE IT JUST ABOUT AS FAR NORTH AS
ALBANY OVERNIGHT BUT GENERALLY IT WILL JUST BE CLOUDY FROM ALBANY
NORTHWARD.

WITH THE CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP AS MUCH AS THEY
COULD...GENERALLY BOTTOMING OUT FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.
THE WIND WILL TURN BACK TO THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST BUT REMAIN
LIGHT GENERALLY UNDER 10 MPH.

A VERY WEAK BUBBLE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY FOR
SATURDAY PROVIDING OUR ENTIRE REGION WITH SOME SUNSHINE...DRY
CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THE LAST DAY OF
APRIL. THAT TRANSLATES TO HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN THE
VALLEYS....55-60 HIGHER TERRAIN. A LIGHT NORTH WIND WILL PREVAIL
AROUND 5 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AT 500 HPA A COMPLEX PATTERN IS SETTING UP THAT WILL SET REGION
UP FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF COOL...WET UNSETTLED WEATHER. IT STARTS
WITH A FLAT RIDGE ON THE E SEABOARD AS A CUT OFF LIFTS EASTWARD
     SHEARS OFF IN THE MID MISS VLY INTO THIS RIDGE. ANOTHER 500HPA
SHORT WV DROPS SE OUT OF ONT...AND OVERALL THE RIDGE FLATTENS.
WITH A MAJOR E-W THERMAL RIBBON IN THE OHIO VALLEY TO MID ATLC
COAST..THE COMBINATION OF INCRG CVA...ISENTROPIC LIFT AND A SFC
LOW WILL ORGANIZE. THE LOW WILL PROPAGATEENE ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT IS ALSO SHIFTING N...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST.

AS A RESULT OVERRUNNING CLOUDS AND -RN WILL OVERSPREAD THE RGN SAT
NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. BY 12UTC MONDAY ONLY A SHORT WV
REMAINS IN A FLAT WESTERLY FLOW BUT ITS ENOUGH TO GRADUALLY
DEEPEN A COASTAL LOW ON THE MID ATLC COAST. PCPN WONT DIMINISH OR
END TILL LATE MONDAY WHEN THE 500HPA SHORT WV FINALLY EXITS. ONLY
A WK SFC HIGH WILL FOLLOW AND CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH OR
MAY LINGER MON NT.

OTHER THAN SOME VARIATIONS IN QPF..AND A SLIGHTLY FURTHER N GEM
TRACK THE GEM/NAM/GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PERIOD. IN
SHORT SVRL DAYS OF CLOUDY COOL...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...
PERIODS OF NEEDED RAIN...LIKELY ON THE ORDER OF 1-2 INCHES TOTAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST OPENS WET AND UNSETTLED FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF
MAY WITH A MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH IN CONTROL OVER THE ERN CONUS.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...MOST OF THIS TIME FRAME SHOULD BE DRY BASED ON THE
ECMWF/GFS/GEFS/WPC GUIDANCE WITH A BROAD SFC ANTICYCLONE RIDGING IN
CENTERED OVER THE PLAINS.  SOME SPRINKLES OR AN ISOLD SHOWER IS
POSSIBLE LATE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE ERN GREAT LAKES
AND THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY.  HIGHS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH
H850 TEMPS RISING BACK TO +2C TO +4C OVER THE REGION...AND MAX TEMPS
IN THE LOWER TO M60S OVER THE VALLEYS...AND M50S TO L60S OVER THE
HILLS AND MTNS.  INCREASING CLOUDS WITH THE THREAT OF AN ISOLD
SHOWER IS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S WITH
SOME U30S OVER THE SRN DACKS AND SRN GREENS.

WED-THU...THE FORECAST BECOMES A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN BASED ON THE
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE ON THE EVOLUTION OF AN H500 UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. THE GFS HAS A FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH A SHORT-WAVE MOVING
THROUGH WED FOR A CHC OF SHOWERS. THE ECMWF AND SEVERAL ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS HAVE A DIGGING H500 TROUGH WITH A SFC WAVE MOVING ALONG THE
EAST COAST BRINGING SCT SHOWERS LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU.  WED WOULD
ACTUALLY BE DRIER IN BETWEEN SOME NRN AND SRN STREAM ENERGY.  TEMPS
ON BOTH DAYS SHOULD BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE WARMER
OF THE TWO DAYS WED...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND U60 OVER THE
VALLEYS...AND U50S TO L60S OVER THE MTNS...AND M50S TO M60S OVER THE
REGION ON THU.  SCT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY
ON WED...AND EXPANDING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WED NIGHT INTO
THU.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITION ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 18 HRS ENDING 06Z/SAT
FOR KGFL...KPSF...KALB...AND KPOU.


HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE IN FROM S/SE QUEBEC THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS PASS TO
THE SOUTH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...AND MID ATLANTIC REGION.

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING...BUT SOME LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF KALB WHERE CIGS MAY LOWER
TO 5-6 KFT AGL NEAR KPOU BTW 14Z-18Z.  THESE LOWER CIGS WILL EXPAND
NORTHWARD TO KALB-KPSF IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH 4-6 KFT AGL CIGS.
EXPECT MID OR HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO PREVAIL AT KGFL INTO THE
AFTERNOON.  SOME LIGHT RAIN OR RAIN SHOWERS MAY REACH LOCATIONS
SOUTH OF KALB-KPSF IN THE EARLY EVENING...AND VCSH GROUPS WERE USED
SHORTLY BEFORE OR JUST AFTER 00Z/SAT.  THE SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THE
LONGEST AT KPOU/KPSF...AND SOME HIGH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL LIKELY
LINGER AT KPOU.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE N TO NE AROUND 5 KTS THIS MORNING...AND
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT 5 KTS PRIOR TO NOONTIME. EXPECT E
TO S/SE WINDS OF LESS 7 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON...BECOMING LIGHT TO
CALM AFTER 00Z/SAT.

.OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY WITH A PERIOD OF
SHOWERS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN CATSKILLS...MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT THIS EVENING. APRIL
WILL END WITH A DRY DAY ALONG WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...MAY WILL START OUT COOL AND WET WITH A
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 40S THIS
AFTERNOON. MINIMUMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 30S SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH VALUES IN THE 40S ACROSS THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS...WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...LESS THAN 10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

SOME LIGHT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FROM
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH QPF AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH
ANTICIPATED. THIS RAINFALL WILL BE BENEFICIAL DUE TO DRY ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS FOR THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED LATER IN THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...SNYDER
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...IAA/JPV




000
FXUS61 KALY 291820
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
225 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
OUR REGION WILL BE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC
AND AN EAST-WEST FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. INTO
TONIGHT SOME CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS. SATURDAY THE HIGH WILL DOMINATE WITH FAIR COOL CONDITIONS
IN MUCH OF THE REGION. SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY THE FRONT WILL
SURGE TOWARD US AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE
ATLANTIC COAST. RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TO START THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 225 PM EDT...RADARS INDICATING ONLY A FEW POSSIBLE "SPITS"
OVER OUR WESTERN REGIONS...REALLY NOTHING MORE THAN SPRINKLES.

TO THE NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...SUNSHINE WAS PREVALENT...TO THE
SOUTH...CLOUDS. RIGHT NEAR THE I-90 CORRIDOR SUNSHINE WAS JOCKEYING
WITH THE CLOUDS SO PARTLY SUNNY COVERS IT.

A LIGHT TO SOUTH WIND WAS STIRRING...5-10 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER
GUSTS.

TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT NEAR 60 IN THE VALLEYS...MID TO UPPER 50S
MOST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

SATELLITE PICTURES NOW INDICATED THAT THE CLOUDS WERE ACTUALLY
BEGINNING TO ADVANCE BACK NORTHWARD AS ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVES
IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL INDUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LIGHT RAIN...MAINLY FROM THE I-84 CORRIDOR
SOUTHWARD. A FEW SPRINKLES COULD MAKE IT JUST ABOUT AS FAR NORTH AS
ALBANY OVERNIGHT BUT GENERALLY IT WILL JUST BE CLOUDY FROM ALBANY
NORTHWARD.

WITH THE CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP AS MUCH AS THEY
COULD...GENERALLY BOTTOMING OUT FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.
THE WIND WILL TURN BACK TO THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST BUT REMAIN
LIGHT GENERALLY UNDER 10 MPH.

A VERY WEAK BUBBLE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY FOR
SATURDAY PROVIDING OUR ENTIRE REGION WITH SOME SUNSHINE...DRY
CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THE LAST DAY OF
APRIL. THAT TRANSLATES TO HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN THE
VALLEYS....55-60 HIGHER TERRAIN. A LIGHT NORTH WIND WILL PREVAIL
AROUND 5 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AT 500 HPA A COMPLEX PATTERN IS SETTING UP THAT WILL SET REGION
UP FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF COOL...WET UNSETTLED WEATHER. IT STARTS
WITH A FLAT RIDGE ON THE E SEABOARD AS A CUT OFF LIFTS EASTWARD
     SHEARS OFF IN THE MID MISS VLY INTO THIS RIDGE. ANOTHER 500HPA
SHORT WV DROPS SE OUT OF ONT...AND OVERALL THE RIDGE FLATTENS.
WITH A MAJOR E-W THERMAL RIBBON IN THE OHIO VALLEY TO MID ATLC
COAST..THE COMBINATION OF INCRG CVA...ISENTROPIC LIFT AND A SFC
LOW WILL ORGANIZE. THE LOW WILL PROPAGATEENE ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT IS ALSO SHIFTING N...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST.

AS A RESULT OVERRUNNING CLOUDS AND -RN WILL OVERSPREAD THE RGN SAT
NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. BY 12UTC MONDAY ONLY A SHORT WV
REMAINS IN A FLAT WESTERLY FLOW BUT ITS ENOUGH TO GRADUALLY
DEEPEN A COASTAL LOW ON THE MID ATLC COAST. PCPN WONT DIMINISH OR
END TILL LATE MONDAY WHEN THE 500HPA SHORT WV FINALLY EXITS. ONLY
A WK SFC HIGH WILL FOLLOW AND CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH OR
MAY LINGER MON NT.

OTHER THAN SOME VARIATIONS IN QPF..AND A SLIGHTLY FURTHER N GEM
TRACK THE GEM/NAM/GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PERIOD. IN
SHORT SVRL DAYS OF CLOUDY COOL...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...
PERIODS OF NEEDED RAIN...LIKELY ON THE ORDER OF 1-2 INCHES TOTAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST OPENS WET AND UNSETTLED FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF
MAY WITH A MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH IN CONTROL OVER THE ERN CONUS.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...MOST OF THIS TIME FRAME SHOULD BE DRY BASED ON THE
ECMWF/GFS/GEFS/WPC GUIDANCE WITH A BROAD SFC ANTICYCLONE RIDGING IN
CENTERED OVER THE PLAINS.  SOME SPRINKLES OR AN ISOLD SHOWER IS
POSSIBLE LATE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE ERN GREAT LAKES
AND THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY.  HIGHS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH
H850 TEMPS RISING BACK TO +2C TO +4C OVER THE REGION...AND MAX TEMPS
IN THE LOWER TO M60S OVER THE VALLEYS...AND M50S TO L60S OVER THE
HILLS AND MTNS.  INCREASING CLOUDS WITH THE THREAT OF AN ISOLD
SHOWER IS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S WITH
SOME U30S OVER THE SRN DACKS AND SRN GREENS.

WED-THU...THE FORECAST BECOMES A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN BASED ON THE
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE ON THE EVOLUTION OF AN H500 UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. THE GFS HAS A FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH A SHORT-WAVE MOVING
THROUGH WED FOR A CHC OF SHOWERS. THE ECMWF AND SEVERAL ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS HAVE A DIGGING H500 TROUGH WITH A SFC WAVE MOVING ALONG THE
EAST COAST BRINGING SCT SHOWERS LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU.  WED WOULD
ACTUALLY BE DRIER IN BETWEEN SOME NRN AND SRN STREAM ENERGY.  TEMPS
ON BOTH DAYS SHOULD BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE WARMER
OF THE TWO DAYS WED...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND U60 OVER THE
VALLEYS...AND U50S TO L60S OVER THE MTNS...AND M50S TO M60S OVER THE
REGION ON THU.  SCT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY
ON WED...AND EXPANDING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WED NIGHT INTO
THU.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITION ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 18 HRS ENDING 06Z/SAT
FOR KGFL...KPSF...KALB...AND KPOU.


HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE IN FROM S/SE QUEBEC THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS PASS TO
THE SOUTH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...AND MID ATLANTIC REGION.

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING...BUT SOME LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF KALB WHERE CIGS MAY LOWER
TO 5-6 KFT AGL NEAR KPOU BTW 14Z-18Z.  THESE LOWER CIGS WILL EXPAND
NORTHWARD TO KALB-KPSF IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH 4-6 KFT AGL CIGS.
EXPECT MID OR HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO PREVAIL AT KGFL INTO THE
AFTERNOON.  SOME LIGHT RAIN OR RAIN SHOWERS MAY REACH LOCATIONS
SOUTH OF KALB-KPSF IN THE EARLY EVENING...AND VCSH GROUPS WERE USED
SHORTLY BEFORE OR JUST AFTER 00Z/SAT.  THE SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THE
LONGEST AT KPOU/KPSF...AND SOME HIGH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL LIKELY
LINGER AT KPOU.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE N TO NE AROUND 5 KTS THIS MORNING...AND
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT 5 KTS PRIOR TO NOONTIME. EXPECT E
TO S/SE WINDS OF LESS 7 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON...BECOMING LIGHT TO
CALM AFTER 00Z/SAT.

.OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY WITH A PERIOD OF
SHOWERS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN CATSKILLS...MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT THIS EVENING. APRIL
WILL END WITH A DRY DAY ALONG WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...MAY WILL START OUT COOL AND WET WITH A
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 40S THIS
AFTERNOON. MINIMUMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 30S SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH VALUES IN THE 40S ACROSS THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS...WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...LESS THAN 10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

SOME LIGHT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FROM
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH QPF AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH
ANTICIPATED. THIS RAINFALL WILL BE BENEFICIAL DUE TO DRY ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS FOR THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED LATER IN THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...SNYDER
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...IAA/JPV




000
FXUS61 KALY 291820
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
225 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
OUR REGION WILL BE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC
AND AN EAST-WEST FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. INTO
TONIGHT SOME CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS. SATURDAY THE HIGH WILL DOMINATE WITH FAIR COOL CONDITIONS
IN MUCH OF THE REGION. SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY THE FRONT WILL
SURGE TOWARD US AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE
ATLANTIC COAST. RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TO START THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 225 PM EDT...RADARS INDICATING ONLY A FEW POSSIBLE "SPITS"
OVER OUR WESTERN REGIONS...REALLY NOTHING MORE THAN SPRINKLES.

TO THE NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...SUNSHINE WAS PREVALENT...TO THE
SOUTH...CLOUDS. RIGHT NEAR THE I-90 CORRIDOR SUNSHINE WAS JOCKEYING
WITH THE CLOUDS SO PARTLY SUNNY COVERS IT.

A LIGHT TO SOUTH WIND WAS STIRRING...5-10 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER
GUSTS.

TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT NEAR 60 IN THE VALLEYS...MID TO UPPER 50S
MOST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

SATELLITE PICTURES NOW INDICATED THAT THE CLOUDS WERE ACTUALLY
BEGINNING TO ADVANCE BACK NORTHWARD AS ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVES
IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL INDUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LIGHT RAIN...MAINLY FROM THE I-84 CORRIDOR
SOUTHWARD. A FEW SPRINKLES COULD MAKE IT JUST ABOUT AS FAR NORTH AS
ALBANY OVERNIGHT BUT GENERALLY IT WILL JUST BE CLOUDY FROM ALBANY
NORTHWARD.

WITH THE CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP AS MUCH AS THEY
COULD...GENERALLY BOTTOMING OUT FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.
THE WIND WILL TURN BACK TO THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST BUT REMAIN
LIGHT GENERALLY UNDER 10 MPH.

A VERY WEAK BUBBLE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY FOR
SATURDAY PROVIDING OUR ENTIRE REGION WITH SOME SUNSHINE...DRY
CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THE LAST DAY OF
APRIL. THAT TRANSLATES TO HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN THE
VALLEYS....55-60 HIGHER TERRAIN. A LIGHT NORTH WIND WILL PREVAIL
AROUND 5 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AT 500 HPA A COMPLEX PATTERN IS SETTING UP THAT WILL SET REGION
UP FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF COOL...WET UNSETTLED WEATHER. IT STARTS
WITH A FLAT RIDGE ON THE E SEABOARD AS A CUT OFF LIFTS EASTWARD
     SHEARS OFF IN THE MID MISS VLY INTO THIS RIDGE. ANOTHER 500HPA
SHORT WV DROPS SE OUT OF ONT...AND OVERALL THE RIDGE FLATTENS.
WITH A MAJOR E-W THERMAL RIBBON IN THE OHIO VALLEY TO MID ATLC
COAST..THE COMBINATION OF INCRG CVA...ISENTROPIC LIFT AND A SFC
LOW WILL ORGANIZE. THE LOW WILL PROPAGATEENE ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT IS ALSO SHIFTING N...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST.

AS A RESULT OVERRUNNING CLOUDS AND -RN WILL OVERSPREAD THE RGN SAT
NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. BY 12UTC MONDAY ONLY A SHORT WV
REMAINS IN A FLAT WESTERLY FLOW BUT ITS ENOUGH TO GRADUALLY
DEEPEN A COASTAL LOW ON THE MID ATLC COAST. PCPN WONT DIMINISH OR
END TILL LATE MONDAY WHEN THE 500HPA SHORT WV FINALLY EXITS. ONLY
A WK SFC HIGH WILL FOLLOW AND CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH OR
MAY LINGER MON NT.

OTHER THAN SOME VARIATIONS IN QPF..AND A SLIGHTLY FURTHER N GEM
TRACK THE GEM/NAM/GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PERIOD. IN
SHORT SVRL DAYS OF CLOUDY COOL...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...
PERIODS OF NEEDED RAIN...LIKELY ON THE ORDER OF 1-2 INCHES TOTAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST OPENS WET AND UNSETTLED FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF
MAY WITH A MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH IN CONTROL OVER THE ERN CONUS.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...MOST OF THIS TIME FRAME SHOULD BE DRY BASED ON THE
ECMWF/GFS/GEFS/WPC GUIDANCE WITH A BROAD SFC ANTICYCLONE RIDGING IN
CENTERED OVER THE PLAINS.  SOME SPRINKLES OR AN ISOLD SHOWER IS
POSSIBLE LATE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE ERN GREAT LAKES
AND THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY.  HIGHS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH
H850 TEMPS RISING BACK TO +2C TO +4C OVER THE REGION...AND MAX TEMPS
IN THE LOWER TO M60S OVER THE VALLEYS...AND M50S TO L60S OVER THE
HILLS AND MTNS.  INCREASING CLOUDS WITH THE THREAT OF AN ISOLD
SHOWER IS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S WITH
SOME U30S OVER THE SRN DACKS AND SRN GREENS.

WED-THU...THE FORECAST BECOMES A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN BASED ON THE
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE ON THE EVOLUTION OF AN H500 UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. THE GFS HAS A FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH A SHORT-WAVE MOVING
THROUGH WED FOR A CHC OF SHOWERS. THE ECMWF AND SEVERAL ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS HAVE A DIGGING H500 TROUGH WITH A SFC WAVE MOVING ALONG THE
EAST COAST BRINGING SCT SHOWERS LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU.  WED WOULD
ACTUALLY BE DRIER IN BETWEEN SOME NRN AND SRN STREAM ENERGY.  TEMPS
ON BOTH DAYS SHOULD BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE WARMER
OF THE TWO DAYS WED...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND U60 OVER THE
VALLEYS...AND U50S TO L60S OVER THE MTNS...AND M50S TO M60S OVER THE
REGION ON THU.  SCT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY
ON WED...AND EXPANDING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WED NIGHT INTO
THU.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITION ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 18 HRS ENDING 06Z/SAT
FOR KGFL...KPSF...KALB...AND KPOU.


HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE IN FROM S/SE QUEBEC THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS PASS TO
THE SOUTH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...AND MID ATLANTIC REGION.

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING...BUT SOME LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF KALB WHERE CIGS MAY LOWER
TO 5-6 KFT AGL NEAR KPOU BTW 14Z-18Z.  THESE LOWER CIGS WILL EXPAND
NORTHWARD TO KALB-KPSF IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH 4-6 KFT AGL CIGS.
EXPECT MID OR HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO PREVAIL AT KGFL INTO THE
AFTERNOON.  SOME LIGHT RAIN OR RAIN SHOWERS MAY REACH LOCATIONS
SOUTH OF KALB-KPSF IN THE EARLY EVENING...AND VCSH GROUPS WERE USED
SHORTLY BEFORE OR JUST AFTER 00Z/SAT.  THE SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THE
LONGEST AT KPOU/KPSF...AND SOME HIGH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL LIKELY
LINGER AT KPOU.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE N TO NE AROUND 5 KTS THIS MORNING...AND
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT 5 KTS PRIOR TO NOONTIME. EXPECT E
TO S/SE WINDS OF LESS 7 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON...BECOMING LIGHT TO
CALM AFTER 00Z/SAT.

.OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY WITH A PERIOD OF
SHOWERS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN CATSKILLS...MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT THIS EVENING. APRIL
WILL END WITH A DRY DAY ALONG WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...MAY WILL START OUT COOL AND WET WITH A
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 40S THIS
AFTERNOON. MINIMUMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 30S SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH VALUES IN THE 40S ACROSS THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS...WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...LESS THAN 10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

SOME LIGHT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FROM
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH QPF AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH
ANTICIPATED. THIS RAINFALL WILL BE BENEFICIAL DUE TO DRY ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS FOR THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED LATER IN THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...SNYDER
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...IAA/JPV




000
FXUS61 KALY 291820
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
225 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
OUR REGION WILL BE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC
AND AN EAST-WEST FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. INTO
TONIGHT SOME CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS. SATURDAY THE HIGH WILL DOMINATE WITH FAIR COOL CONDITIONS
IN MUCH OF THE REGION. SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY THE FRONT WILL
SURGE TOWARD US AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE
ATLANTIC COAST. RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TO START THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 225 PM EDT...RADARS INDICATING ONLY A FEW POSSIBLE "SPITS"
OVER OUR WESTERN REGIONS...REALLY NOTHING MORE THAN SPRINKLES.

TO THE NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...SUNSHINE WAS PREVALENT...TO THE
SOUTH...CLOUDS. RIGHT NEAR THE I-90 CORRIDOR SUNSHINE WAS JOCKEYING
WITH THE CLOUDS SO PARTLY SUNNY COVERS IT.

A LIGHT TO SOUTH WIND WAS STIRRING...5-10 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER
GUSTS.

TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT NEAR 60 IN THE VALLEYS...MID TO UPPER 50S
MOST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

SATELLITE PICTURES NOW INDICATED THAT THE CLOUDS WERE ACTUALLY
BEGINNING TO ADVANCE BACK NORTHWARD AS ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVES
IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL INDUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LIGHT RAIN...MAINLY FROM THE I-84 CORRIDOR
SOUTHWARD. A FEW SPRINKLES COULD MAKE IT JUST ABOUT AS FAR NORTH AS
ALBANY OVERNIGHT BUT GENERALLY IT WILL JUST BE CLOUDY FROM ALBANY
NORTHWARD.

WITH THE CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP AS MUCH AS THEY
COULD...GENERALLY BOTTOMING OUT FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.
THE WIND WILL TURN BACK TO THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST BUT REMAIN
LIGHT GENERALLY UNDER 10 MPH.

A VERY WEAK BUBBLE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY FOR
SATURDAY PROVIDING OUR ENTIRE REGION WITH SOME SUNSHINE...DRY
CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THE LAST DAY OF
APRIL. THAT TRANSLATES TO HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN THE
VALLEYS....55-60 HIGHER TERRAIN. A LIGHT NORTH WIND WILL PREVAIL
AROUND 5 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AT 500 HPA A COMPLEX PATTERN IS SETTING UP THAT WILL SET REGION
UP FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF COOL...WET UNSETTLED WEATHER. IT STARTS
WITH A FLAT RIDGE ON THE E SEABOARD AS A CUT OFF LIFTS EASTWARD
     SHEARS OFF IN THE MID MISS VLY INTO THIS RIDGE. ANOTHER 500HPA
SHORT WV DROPS SE OUT OF ONT...AND OVERALL THE RIDGE FLATTENS.
WITH A MAJOR E-W THERMAL RIBBON IN THE OHIO VALLEY TO MID ATLC
COAST..THE COMBINATION OF INCRG CVA...ISENTROPIC LIFT AND A SFC
LOW WILL ORGANIZE. THE LOW WILL PROPAGATEENE ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT IS ALSO SHIFTING N...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST.

AS A RESULT OVERRUNNING CLOUDS AND -RN WILL OVERSPREAD THE RGN SAT
NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. BY 12UTC MONDAY ONLY A SHORT WV
REMAINS IN A FLAT WESTERLY FLOW BUT ITS ENOUGH TO GRADUALLY
DEEPEN A COASTAL LOW ON THE MID ATLC COAST. PCPN WONT DIMINISH OR
END TILL LATE MONDAY WHEN THE 500HPA SHORT WV FINALLY EXITS. ONLY
A WK SFC HIGH WILL FOLLOW AND CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH OR
MAY LINGER MON NT.

OTHER THAN SOME VARIATIONS IN QPF..AND A SLIGHTLY FURTHER N GEM
TRACK THE GEM/NAM/GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PERIOD. IN
SHORT SVRL DAYS OF CLOUDY COOL...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...
PERIODS OF NEEDED RAIN...LIKELY ON THE ORDER OF 1-2 INCHES TOTAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST OPENS WET AND UNSETTLED FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF
MAY WITH A MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH IN CONTROL OVER THE ERN CONUS.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...MOST OF THIS TIME FRAME SHOULD BE DRY BASED ON THE
ECMWF/GFS/GEFS/WPC GUIDANCE WITH A BROAD SFC ANTICYCLONE RIDGING IN
CENTERED OVER THE PLAINS.  SOME SPRINKLES OR AN ISOLD SHOWER IS
POSSIBLE LATE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE ERN GREAT LAKES
AND THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY.  HIGHS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH
H850 TEMPS RISING BACK TO +2C TO +4C OVER THE REGION...AND MAX TEMPS
IN THE LOWER TO M60S OVER THE VALLEYS...AND M50S TO L60S OVER THE
HILLS AND MTNS.  INCREASING CLOUDS WITH THE THREAT OF AN ISOLD
SHOWER IS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S WITH
SOME U30S OVER THE SRN DACKS AND SRN GREENS.

WED-THU...THE FORECAST BECOMES A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN BASED ON THE
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE ON THE EVOLUTION OF AN H500 UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. THE GFS HAS A FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH A SHORT-WAVE MOVING
THROUGH WED FOR A CHC OF SHOWERS. THE ECMWF AND SEVERAL ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS HAVE A DIGGING H500 TROUGH WITH A SFC WAVE MOVING ALONG THE
EAST COAST BRINGING SCT SHOWERS LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU.  WED WOULD
ACTUALLY BE DRIER IN BETWEEN SOME NRN AND SRN STREAM ENERGY.  TEMPS
ON BOTH DAYS SHOULD BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE WARMER
OF THE TWO DAYS WED...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND U60 OVER THE
VALLEYS...AND U50S TO L60S OVER THE MTNS...AND M50S TO M60S OVER THE
REGION ON THU.  SCT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY
ON WED...AND EXPANDING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WED NIGHT INTO
THU.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITION ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 18 HRS ENDING 06Z/SAT
FOR KGFL...KPSF...KALB...AND KPOU.


HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE IN FROM S/SE QUEBEC THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS PASS TO
THE SOUTH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...AND MID ATLANTIC REGION.

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING...BUT SOME LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF KALB WHERE CIGS MAY LOWER
TO 5-6 KFT AGL NEAR KPOU BTW 14Z-18Z.  THESE LOWER CIGS WILL EXPAND
NORTHWARD TO KALB-KPSF IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH 4-6 KFT AGL CIGS.
EXPECT MID OR HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO PREVAIL AT KGFL INTO THE
AFTERNOON.  SOME LIGHT RAIN OR RAIN SHOWERS MAY REACH LOCATIONS
SOUTH OF KALB-KPSF IN THE EARLY EVENING...AND VCSH GROUPS WERE USED
SHORTLY BEFORE OR JUST AFTER 00Z/SAT.  THE SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THE
LONGEST AT KPOU/KPSF...AND SOME HIGH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL LIKELY
LINGER AT KPOU.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE N TO NE AROUND 5 KTS THIS MORNING...AND
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT 5 KTS PRIOR TO NOONTIME. EXPECT E
TO S/SE WINDS OF LESS 7 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON...BECOMING LIGHT TO
CALM AFTER 00Z/SAT.

.OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY WITH A PERIOD OF
SHOWERS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN CATSKILLS...MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT THIS EVENING. APRIL
WILL END WITH A DRY DAY ALONG WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...MAY WILL START OUT COOL AND WET WITH A
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 40S THIS
AFTERNOON. MINIMUMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 30S SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH VALUES IN THE 40S ACROSS THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS...WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...LESS THAN 10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

SOME LIGHT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FROM
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH QPF AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH
ANTICIPATED. THIS RAINFALL WILL BE BENEFICIAL DUE TO DRY ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS FOR THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED LATER IN THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...SNYDER
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...IAA/JPV




000
FXUS61 KALY 291707
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
107 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
OUR REGION WILL BE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC
AND AN EAST-WEST FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. INTO
TONIGHT SOME CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS. SATURDAY THE HIGH WILL DOMINATE WITH FAIR COOL CONDITIONS
IN MUCH OF THE REGION. SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY THE FRONT WILL
SURGE TOWARD US AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE
ATLANTIC COAST. RAIN WILL OVERSREAD THE REGION TO START THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 940 AM EDT...RADAR SHOWING A FEW POSSIBLE LIGHT SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES WORKING ACROSS THE CATSKILLS. OTHERWISE IT WAS MAINLY
CLOUDY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD (HIGH CLOUDS) BUT MOSTLY
SUNNY FROM ABOUT SARATOGA SPRINGS NORTHWARD.

DRIER AIR WAS SLOWLY PUSHING SOUTHWARD SO WE EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO
PARTIALLY ERODE...AT LEAST INTO THE CAPITOL REGION THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. ANY SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES SHOULD BE CONFINED TO NEAR THE I-
84 CORRIDOR.

LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AS SHORT WAVE HEADS FROM THE WEST...THE
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO ADVANCE NORTHWARD AGAIN...BY LATE IN THE  DAY.

NO CHANGES TO HIGH TEMPERATURES AS THEY WILL TOP OUT NEAR 60 IN THE
VALLEYS...50S HIGHER TERRAIN.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION IS ON THE APPROACH.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BY LATE IN THE DAY FOR
THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATES
88 AND 90 BY LATE IN THE DAY.

CLOUD COVER WILL BE LEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOST PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHICH WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCED OF CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL TODAY...MORE SO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUDS. EXPECTING
AFTERNOON HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S WITH SOME 40S ACROSS THE HIGHEST
TERRAIN ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS.

LIGHT NORTHEAST-EAST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY.

THE LAST DAY OF APRIL...SATURDAY...WILL BE DRY WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES AS THE REGION IS IN BETWEEN SHORT WAVES AND SOME
HIGHER PRESSURE NOSES SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA. HIGHS WILL MAINLY
RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AT 500 HPA A COMPLEX PATTERN IS SETTING UP THAT WILL SET REGION
UP FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF COOL...WET UNSETTLED WEATHER. IT STARTS
WITH A FLAT RIDGE ON THE E SEABOARD AS A CUT OFF LIFTS EASTWARD
...SHEARS OFF IN THE MID MISS VLY INTO THIS RIDGE. ANOTHER 500HPA
SHORT WV DROPS SE OUT OF ONT...AND OVERALL THE RIDGE FLATTENS.
WITH A MAJOR E-W THERMAL RIBBON IN THE OHIO VALLEY TO MID ATLC
COAST..THE COMBINATION OF INCRG CVA...ISENTROPIC LIFT AND A SFC
LOW WILL ORGANIZE. THE LOW WILL PROPAGATEENE ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT IS ALSO SHIFTING N...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST.

AS A RESULT OVERRUNNING CLOUDS AND -RN WILL OVERSPREAD THE RGN SAT
NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. BY 12UTC MONDAY ONLY A SHORT WV
REMAINS IN A FLAT WESTERLY FLOW BUT ITS ENOUGH TO GRADUALLY
DEEPEN A COASTAL LOW ON THE MID ATLC COAST. PCPN WONT DIMINISH OR
END TILL LATE MONDAY WHEN THE 500HPA SHORT WV FINALLY EXITS. ONLY
A WK SFC HIGH WILL FOLLOW AND CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH OR
MAY LINGER MON NT.

OTHER THAN SOME VARIATIONS IN QPF..AND A SLIGHTLY FURTHER N GEM
TRACK THE GEM/NAM/GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PERIOD. IN
SHORT SVRL DAYS OF CLOUDY COOL...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...
PERIODS OF NEEDED RAIN...LIKELY ON THE ORDER OF 1-2 INCHES TOTAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST OPENS WET AND UNSETTLED FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF
MAY WITH A MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH IN CONTROL OVER THE ERN CONUS.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...MOST OF THIS TIME FRAME SHOULD BE DRY BASED ON THE
ECMWF/GFS/GEFS/WPC GUIDANCE WITH A BROAD SFC ANTICYCLONE RIDGING IN
CENTERED OVER THE PLAINS.  SOME SPRINKLES OR AN ISOLD SHOWER IS
POSSIBLE LATE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE ERN GREAT LAKES
AND THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY.  HIGHS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH
H850 TEMPS RISING BACK TO +2C TO +4C OVER THE REGION...AND MAX TEMPS
IN THE LOWER TO M60S OVER THE VALLEYS...AND M50S TO L60S OVER THE
HILLS AND MTNS.  INCREASING CLOUDS WITH THE THREAT OF AN ISOLD
SHOWER IS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S WITH
SOME U30S OVER THE SRN DACKS AND SRN GREENS.

WED-THU...THE FORECAST BECOMES A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN BASED ON THE
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE ON THE EVOLUTION OF AN H500 UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. THE GFS HAS A FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH A SHORT-WAVE MOVING
THROUGH WED FOR A CHC OF SHOWERS. THE ECMWF AND SEVERAL ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS HAVE A DIGGING H500 TROUGH WITH A SFC WAVE MOVING ALONG THE
EAST COAST BRINGING SCT SHOWERS LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU.  WED WOULD
ACTUALLY BE DRIER IN BETWEEN SOME NRN AND SRN STREAM ENERGY.  TEMPS
ON BOTH DAYS SHOULD BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE WARMER
OF THE TWO DAYS WED...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND U60 OVER THE
VALLEYS...AND U50S TO L60S OVER THE MTNS...AND M50S TO M60S OVER THE
REGION ON THU.  SCT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY
ON WED...AND EXPANDING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WED NIGHT INTO
THU.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITION ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 18 HRS ENDING 06Z/SAT
FOR KGFL...KPSF...KALB...AND KPOU.


HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE IN FROM S/SE QUEBEC THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS PASS TO
THE SOUTH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...AND MID ATLANTIC REGION.

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING...BUT SOME LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF KALB WHERE CIGS MAY LOWER
TO 5-6 KFT AGL NEAR KPOU BTW 14Z-18Z.  THESE LOWER CIGS WILL EXPAND
NORTHWARD TO KALB-KPSF IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH 4-6 KFT AGL CIGS.
EXPECT MID OR HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO PREVAIL AT KGFL INTO THE
AFTERNOON.  SOME LIGHT RAIN OR RAIN SHOWERS MAY REACH LOCATIONS
SOUTH OF KALB-KPSF IN THE EARLY EVENING...AND VCSH GROUPS WERE USED
SHORTLY BEFORE OR JUST AFTER 00Z/SAT.  THE SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THE
LONGEST AT KPOU/KPSF...AND SOME HIGH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL LIKELY
LINGER AT KPOU.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE N TO NE AROUND 5 KTS THIS MORNING...AND
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT 5 KTS PRIOR TO NOONTIME. EXPECT E
TO S/SE WINDS OF LESS 7 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON...BECOMING LIGHT TO
CALM AFTER 00Z/SAT.

.OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY WITH A PERIOD OF
SHOWERS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN CATSKILLS...MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT THIS EVENING. APRIL
WILL END WITH A DRY DAY ALONG WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...MAY WILL START OUT COOL AND WET WITH A
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 40S THIS
AFTERNOON. MINIMUMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 30S SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH VALUES IN THE 40S ACROSS THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS...WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...LESS THAN 10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

SOME LIGHT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FROM
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH QPF AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH
ANTICIPATED. THIS RAINFALL WILL BE BENEFICIAL DUE TO DRY ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS FOR THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED LATER IN THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...HWJIV/WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA/JPV




000
FXUS61 KALY 291707
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
107 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
OUR REGION WILL BE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC
AND AN EAST-WEST FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. INTO
TONIGHT SOME CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS. SATURDAY THE HIGH WILL DOMINATE WITH FAIR COOL CONDITIONS
IN MUCH OF THE REGION. SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY THE FRONT WILL
SURGE TOWARD US AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE
ATLANTIC COAST. RAIN WILL OVERSREAD THE REGION TO START THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 940 AM EDT...RADAR SHOWING A FEW POSSIBLE LIGHT SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES WORKING ACROSS THE CATSKILLS. OTHERWISE IT WAS MAINLY
CLOUDY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD (HIGH CLOUDS) BUT MOSTLY
SUNNY FROM ABOUT SARATOGA SPRINGS NORTHWARD.

DRIER AIR WAS SLOWLY PUSHING SOUTHWARD SO WE EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO
PARTIALLY ERODE...AT LEAST INTO THE CAPITOL REGION THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. ANY SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES SHOULD BE CONFINED TO NEAR THE I-
84 CORRIDOR.

LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AS SHORT WAVE HEADS FROM THE WEST...THE
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO ADVANCE NORTHWARD AGAIN...BY LATE IN THE  DAY.

NO CHANGES TO HIGH TEMPERATURES AS THEY WILL TOP OUT NEAR 60 IN THE
VALLEYS...50S HIGHER TERRAIN.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION IS ON THE APPROACH.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BY LATE IN THE DAY FOR
THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATES
88 AND 90 BY LATE IN THE DAY.

CLOUD COVER WILL BE LEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOST PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHICH WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCED OF CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL TODAY...MORE SO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUDS. EXPECTING
AFTERNOON HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S WITH SOME 40S ACROSS THE HIGHEST
TERRAIN ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS.

LIGHT NORTHEAST-EAST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY.

THE LAST DAY OF APRIL...SATURDAY...WILL BE DRY WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES AS THE REGION IS IN BETWEEN SHORT WAVES AND SOME
HIGHER PRESSURE NOSES SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA. HIGHS WILL MAINLY
RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AT 500 HPA A COMPLEX PATTERN IS SETTING UP THAT WILL SET REGION
UP FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF COOL...WET UNSETTLED WEATHER. IT STARTS
WITH A FLAT RIDGE ON THE E SEABOARD AS A CUT OFF LIFTS EASTWARD
...SHEARS OFF IN THE MID MISS VLY INTO THIS RIDGE. ANOTHER 500HPA
SHORT WV DROPS SE OUT OF ONT...AND OVERALL THE RIDGE FLATTENS.
WITH A MAJOR E-W THERMAL RIBBON IN THE OHIO VALLEY TO MID ATLC
COAST..THE COMBINATION OF INCRG CVA...ISENTROPIC LIFT AND A SFC
LOW WILL ORGANIZE. THE LOW WILL PROPAGATEENE ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT IS ALSO SHIFTING N...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST.

AS A RESULT OVERRUNNING CLOUDS AND -RN WILL OVERSPREAD THE RGN SAT
NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. BY 12UTC MONDAY ONLY A SHORT WV
REMAINS IN A FLAT WESTERLY FLOW BUT ITS ENOUGH TO GRADUALLY
DEEPEN A COASTAL LOW ON THE MID ATLC COAST. PCPN WONT DIMINISH OR
END TILL LATE MONDAY WHEN THE 500HPA SHORT WV FINALLY EXITS. ONLY
A WK SFC HIGH WILL FOLLOW AND CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH OR
MAY LINGER MON NT.

OTHER THAN SOME VARIATIONS IN QPF..AND A SLIGHTLY FURTHER N GEM
TRACK THE GEM/NAM/GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PERIOD. IN
SHORT SVRL DAYS OF CLOUDY COOL...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...
PERIODS OF NEEDED RAIN...LIKELY ON THE ORDER OF 1-2 INCHES TOTAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST OPENS WET AND UNSETTLED FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF
MAY WITH A MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH IN CONTROL OVER THE ERN CONUS.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...MOST OF THIS TIME FRAME SHOULD BE DRY BASED ON THE
ECMWF/GFS/GEFS/WPC GUIDANCE WITH A BROAD SFC ANTICYCLONE RIDGING IN
CENTERED OVER THE PLAINS.  SOME SPRINKLES OR AN ISOLD SHOWER IS
POSSIBLE LATE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE ERN GREAT LAKES
AND THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY.  HIGHS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH
H850 TEMPS RISING BACK TO +2C TO +4C OVER THE REGION...AND MAX TEMPS
IN THE LOWER TO M60S OVER THE VALLEYS...AND M50S TO L60S OVER THE
HILLS AND MTNS.  INCREASING CLOUDS WITH THE THREAT OF AN ISOLD
SHOWER IS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S WITH
SOME U30S OVER THE SRN DACKS AND SRN GREENS.

WED-THU...THE FORECAST BECOMES A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN BASED ON THE
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE ON THE EVOLUTION OF AN H500 UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. THE GFS HAS A FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH A SHORT-WAVE MOVING
THROUGH WED FOR A CHC OF SHOWERS. THE ECMWF AND SEVERAL ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS HAVE A DIGGING H500 TROUGH WITH A SFC WAVE MOVING ALONG THE
EAST COAST BRINGING SCT SHOWERS LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU.  WED WOULD
ACTUALLY BE DRIER IN BETWEEN SOME NRN AND SRN STREAM ENERGY.  TEMPS
ON BOTH DAYS SHOULD BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE WARMER
OF THE TWO DAYS WED...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND U60 OVER THE
VALLEYS...AND U50S TO L60S OVER THE MTNS...AND M50S TO M60S OVER THE
REGION ON THU.  SCT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY
ON WED...AND EXPANDING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WED NIGHT INTO
THU.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITION ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 18 HRS ENDING 06Z/SAT
FOR KGFL...KPSF...KALB...AND KPOU.


HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE IN FROM S/SE QUEBEC THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS PASS TO
THE SOUTH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...AND MID ATLANTIC REGION.

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING...BUT SOME LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF KALB WHERE CIGS MAY LOWER
TO 5-6 KFT AGL NEAR KPOU BTW 14Z-18Z.  THESE LOWER CIGS WILL EXPAND
NORTHWARD TO KALB-KPSF IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH 4-6 KFT AGL CIGS.
EXPECT MID OR HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO PREVAIL AT KGFL INTO THE
AFTERNOON.  SOME LIGHT RAIN OR RAIN SHOWERS MAY REACH LOCATIONS
SOUTH OF KALB-KPSF IN THE EARLY EVENING...AND VCSH GROUPS WERE USED
SHORTLY BEFORE OR JUST AFTER 00Z/SAT.  THE SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THE
LONGEST AT KPOU/KPSF...AND SOME HIGH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL LIKELY
LINGER AT KPOU.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE N TO NE AROUND 5 KTS THIS MORNING...AND
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT 5 KTS PRIOR TO NOONTIME. EXPECT E
TO S/SE WINDS OF LESS 7 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON...BECOMING LIGHT TO
CALM AFTER 00Z/SAT.

.OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY WITH A PERIOD OF
SHOWERS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN CATSKILLS...MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT THIS EVENING. APRIL
WILL END WITH A DRY DAY ALONG WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...MAY WILL START OUT COOL AND WET WITH A
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 40S THIS
AFTERNOON. MINIMUMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 30S SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH VALUES IN THE 40S ACROSS THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS...WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...LESS THAN 10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

SOME LIGHT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FROM
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH QPF AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH
ANTICIPATED. THIS RAINFALL WILL BE BENEFICIAL DUE TO DRY ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS FOR THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED LATER IN THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...HWJIV/WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA/JPV




000
FXUS61 KOKX 291617
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1217 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK LOW MOVES FARTHER OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WITH ANOTHER WEAK LOW APPROACHING FROM THE WEST THROUGH
TONIGHT. FOR SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY RETURNS AS IT
BUILDS IN FROM CENTRAL CANADA. COOL AND UNSETTLED SUN AND MON AS
A STATIONARY FRONT SETS UP S OF THE REGION. WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS
IN ON TUE...FOLLOWED BY A POTENTIAL FRONTAL SYS FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ANY COVERAGE OF SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN WILL BE QUITE LOW UNTIL AN AREA
OF RAIN DEVELOPS LATE IN THE DAY AHEAD OF LEFT FRONT QUAD OF UPPER
JET/SHORTWAVE.

AT THE SURFACE...WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE INTO
THE ATLANTIC WITH ANOTHER WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. THERE WILL BE ABUNDANT CLOUDS AND WITH THE PRESSURE
PATTERN...EASTERLY FLOW WILL BE SET IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY.
ANOTHER COOL DAY IS EXPECTED. LITTLE CHANGE TO TEMPS IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
FOR TONIGHT...HIGHEST CHANCES OF RAIN ARE THIS EVENING WITH THE
LEFT FRONT QUAD OF THE UPPER JET RIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
SHIFTS SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT WITH A LIKEWISE DECREASE OF POPS FOR
RAIN AS THE LOW SHIFTS FARTHER OUT TO SEA AT THE SURFACE. ABUNDANT
CLOUDS AND ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUE SO USED A RELATIVELY WARMER BLEND
OF GUIDANCE FOR LOWS...1/3 NAM12 SFC TEMPERATURES AND 2/3 MAV
GUIDANCE.

FOR SATURDAY...A BRIEF REVISIT OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH RIDGING
ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR RELATIVELY WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY. THE SOURCE REGION OF THE HIGH IS IN
CENTRAL CANADA. HIGHEST TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS THE INTERIOR
WITH A SE FLOW IN PLACE IN THE AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL KEEP COASTAL
LOCATIONS RELATIVELY COOLER WITH MORE MARINE INFLUENCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
00Z MODEL SUITE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST PERIODS OF RAINY WX SUN AND
MON. QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT SETS UP S OF THE REGION SAT NGT THRU THE
REST OF THE WEEKEND. DEEP TROF ACROSS THE WRN CONUS SHOULD TAP THE
SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC AND FUNNEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. MOISTURE
STREAM INTO MEXICO ALREADY APPARENT ON WATER VAPOR. RESIDUAL
CONVECTION PROGGED TO SUPPLY EMBEDDED SHRTWV ENERGY...WITH RAIN CHCS
THEREFORE BREAKING OUT LATE SAT NGT AND PARTICULARLY ON SUN. LOW
PRES DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT THEN LIKELY IMPACTS THE AREA DURING
THE SUN NGT-MON TIME PERIOD. THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD
AMONGST THE GFS AND ECMWF WRT THE EXACT LATITUDE OF THE LOW PRES
SYS...AND AS A RESULT THE AMT OF RAIN WHICH CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE CWA. TOO MANY MOVING PARTS TO ADEQUATELY PINPOINT TIMING ON
SUN...SO HAVE KEPT POPS AT LIKELY. WRT THE LOW...SYS IS TOO FAR OUT
TO RAISE POPS ABV HIGH CHC ATTM. IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW...CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT ON TUE. THIS COULD SPARK A FEW SHWRS OR SPRINKLES...AS
LAPSE RATES PER THE GFS AROUND 9C/KM UP TO H85. H5 LOW DROPS TO
JAMES BAY TUE NGT...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF IN AGREEMENT ON
THIS...AND EVENTUALLY CARVES OUT A BROAD UPR TROF ACROSS THE NERN
CONUS WED AND THU. THIS SUPPORTS CHCS FOR AT LEAST SHWRS...WITH THE
SUGGESTION OF A POTENTIAL SPINUP OFFSHORE WHICH WOULD BRING A CHC
FOR MORE ORGANIZED RAINFALL IN THE WED-THU PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND A
STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

VFR. LIGHT RAIN WILL LIKELY DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST.

E WINDS EITHER SIDE OF 10 KT THIS MORNING SHOULD VEER A LITTLE
MORE SE THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTS 15-20 KT THIS MORNING ALONG THE
COAST.

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS FLUCTUATING BETWEEN 090-110 MAGNETIC
THIS MORNING. ITWS SPEEDS/GUSTS ARE LIKELY OVERDONE BY A
COUPLE KT.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SAT THROUGH TUE...
.SAT...VFR.
.SUN-MON...RAIN WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS.
.TUE...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HAZARDOUS OCEAN SEAS OF 5 TO 6 FT COULD LINGER WELL INTO THE
NIGHT TONIGHT. THIS WILL BE A MARGINAL EVENT AS OTHER WATERS AND
ALL WINDS WILL BE BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH SAT NIGHT.

NE WINDS INCREASE ON SUNDAY WITH SCA CONDS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
ON THE OCEAN. LINGERING SEAS AROUND 5 FT ON THE OCEAN MON...THEN
WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS TUE. POTENTIAL FOR 5 FT SEAS ON THE
OCEAN AGAIN ON WED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH TONIGHT SHOULD BE LESS THAN 1/4 INCH.

AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE LATE SAT NGT THRU SUNDAY.
ADDITIONAL RAIN IS POSSIBLE ON MON...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT
TRACK...SPEED AND INTENSITY OF PASSING LOW PRES.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT
     TONIGHT FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/JM
NEAR TERM...JMC/JM/PW
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...JC/GOODMAN
MARINE...JMC/JM/PW
HYDROLOGY...JMC/JM




000
FXUS61 KBOX 291401
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1001 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL CANADA TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WILL YIELD MILD AFTERNOONS AND CHILLY NIGHTS THROUGH SATURDAY. A
RETURN TO UNSETTLED AND COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. A DRYING TREND FOLLOWS
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

10 AM UPDATE...

ONE WAVE MOVING OUT BEFORE ANOTHER ONE MOVES IN. DISCERNIBLE VIA
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE A MID LEVEL VORTEX IS PRESENTLY SWEEPING S
NEW ENGLAND. SOME LIGHT RAIN / SHOWERY ACTIVITY ALONG ITS S AND W
EDGE AS IT SWEEPS E PER MID LEVEL FORCING OF A DECENT MOIST LAYER
BETWEEN H85-5 SEEN IN 12Z SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION. THINKING
FOR MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON THERE WILL BE A MIX OF SUN AND
CLOUDS WITH PERHAPS A SPRINKLE HERE OR THERE TO THE S/W. OVERALL
A BRIEF PERIOD OF SINKING AIR WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SUNSHINE AND
TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK INTO THE 60S.

COOLER ALONG THE COAST WITH A PREVAILING E/SE ONSHORE FLOW PICKING
UP INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STRONGER MID
LEVEL VORTEX FOR LATE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. A BATTLE OF AIRMASSES
WITH HIGH PRESSURE N/E AGAINST ENERGY MOVING IN FROM THE W. WOULD
EXPECT CLOUDS TO BE ON THE INCREASE FROM THE W WITH THE APPROACH
OF THE VORTEX...BUT DRY SINKING AIR LINGERS N/E. HIGH RES GUIDANCE
HAS THE VORTEX SLINKING S/E OF OUR REGION UP AGAINST THE PREVAILING
HIGH OVER THE GULF OF MAINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...

TONIGHT...A SHORTWAVE WILL PASS SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS
EVENING...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY TO THE
SOUTH COAST.  CONTINUED CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
RADIATING OVERNIGHT.  LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO
AROUND 40.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  EXPECT
CLEARING SKIES THROUGH THE DAY...ALLOWING FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES.  HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW TO
MID 60S AWAY FROM THE COASTS.  SEA BREEZES ARE EXPECTED ONCE
AGAIN...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSEASONABLY COOL WITH PERIODS OF RAIN SUN INTO MON
* DRYING TREND LIKELY TUE AND POSSIBLY WED ALONG WITH MILDER TEMPS
* MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE THU

OVERVIEW...
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN DEVELOPING AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND W CANADA WITH DOWNSTREAM TROF OVER THE GT
LAKES. EXPECT A PERIOD OF COOL AND WET CONDITIONS SUN INTO MON AS
LOW PRES TRACKS S OF NEW ENG. A BRIEF DRYING TREND AND MILDER TEMPS
WILL FOLLOW TUE AND POSSIBLY INTO WED IN BETWEEN SHORTWAVES...THEN
MID LEVEL TROF AMPLIFIES OVER THE LAKES WITH ANOTHER PERIOD OF
COOLER AND WET WEATHER POSSIBLE BY THU.

SAT NIGHT...
HIGH PRES ACROSS E NEW ENG WILL SLOWLY MOVE E AS OVERRUNNING
MOISTURE APPROACHES FROM THE SW. GFS IS FASTEST MOVING RAIN INTO SNE
LATER SAT NIGHT...WHILE ECMWF/NAM/GGEM/UKMET KEEP RAIN TO THE WEST.
FOLLOWED CONSENSUS OF DRY FORECAST WITH JUST A LOW PROB OF LIGHT
RAIN REACHING W NEW ENG LATE SAT NIGHT.

SUN INTO MON...
MOST OF THIS PERIOD LIKELY TO BE COOL AND WET. INITIAL SHOT OF RAIN
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION DURING SUN FROM WEST TO EASY AS OVERRUNNING
OF SFC BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH LEADS TO DEEP MOISTURE AND MODEST LIFT
OVERSPREADING THE REGION. RAIN MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL SUN AFTERNOON
ACROSS E NEW ENG. LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS MOSTLY IN
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S SUNDAY. A SECOND PERIOD OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED SUN NIGHT INTO MON AS LOW PRES TRACKS S OF NEW
ENG...ALTHOUGH GFS LIKELY OVERDONE WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. ANOTHER
CHILLY DAY MON WITH TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL.

TUE INTO WED...
WEAK HIGH PRES SHOULD BRING MAINLY DRY WEATHER TUE WITH TEMPS
REBOUNDING TO NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST INTO WED AS MID LEVEL TROF
AXIS STILL BACK ACROSS GT LAKES.

THU...
LOOKS LIKE UNSETTLED WEATHER AND COOLER TEMPS WILL RETURN AS MID
LEVEL TROF AMPLIFIES ACROSS NE WITH POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER COASTAL
WAVE TO THE S OF NEW ENG WITH EASTERLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

LOW-END VFR CIGS WITH -SHRA PREVAIL S/W THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
WITH BREEZY SE WINDS BECOMING LIGHT. MODERATE RISK OF MVFR FOR S/W
CT AND RI AS WELL AS S COASTAL MASS TERMINALS. SATURDAY SHOULD BE
VFR WITH LIGHT MAINLY E FLOW.

KBOS TERMINAL...BREEZY E FLOW PREVAILS TODAY WITH A GRADUAL
VEERING FROM THE SE TOWARDS EVENING. VFR CIGS WITH A MOSTLY MID
LEVEL CLOUD DECK.

KBDL TERMINAL...VFR.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SAT NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR CIGS. LIGHT RAIN MAY REACH
W NEW ENG TOWARD DAYBREAK.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS WITH DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS TO MVFR AND LOCALIZED IFR POSSIBLE IN PERIODS OF RAIN.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. DRYING TREND WITH VFR AND LIGHT
WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER OVERALL. EXPECT WET WEATHER ACTIVITY LATE
TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT OVER THE S/W WATERS OFF OF THE S-COAST OF
RI/MASS. BREEZY SE FLOW WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS TODAY...ISOLATED
25 KTS...DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT WHILE REMAINING EASTERLY
ALL THE WAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SAT NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS.

SUNDAY INTO MON...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. INCREASING EASTERLY WINDS SUN
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...THEN SHIFTING TO NORTH DURING MON AS LOW PRES
MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. A PERIOD OF EASTERLY SCA GUSTS
POSSIBLE SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND AGAIN DURING MON AS WINDS
SHIFT TO NORTH. ROUGH SEAS GIVEN THE LONG ENE FETCH. VSBYS REDUCED
AT TIMES IN RAIN AND PATCHY FOG.

TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LIGHT WINDS BUT LEFTOVER SCA SEAS LIKELY
FOR EASTERN WATERS FROM ENE SWELLS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...KJC/RLG/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/RLG/SIPPRELL
MARINE...KJC/RLG/SIPPRELL




000
FXUS61 KBOX 291401
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1001 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL CANADA TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WILL YIELD MILD AFTERNOONS AND CHILLY NIGHTS THROUGH SATURDAY. A
RETURN TO UNSETTLED AND COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. A DRYING TREND FOLLOWS
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

10 AM UPDATE...

ONE WAVE MOVING OUT BEFORE ANOTHER ONE MOVES IN. DISCERNIBLE VIA
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE A MID LEVEL VORTEX IS PRESENTLY SWEEPING S
NEW ENGLAND. SOME LIGHT RAIN / SHOWERY ACTIVITY ALONG ITS S AND W
EDGE AS IT SWEEPS E PER MID LEVEL FORCING OF A DECENT MOIST LAYER
BETWEEN H85-5 SEEN IN 12Z SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION. THINKING
FOR MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON THERE WILL BE A MIX OF SUN AND
CLOUDS WITH PERHAPS A SPRINKLE HERE OR THERE TO THE S/W. OVERALL
A BRIEF PERIOD OF SINKING AIR WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SUNSHINE AND
TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK INTO THE 60S.

COOLER ALONG THE COAST WITH A PREVAILING E/SE ONSHORE FLOW PICKING
UP INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STRONGER MID
LEVEL VORTEX FOR LATE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. A BATTLE OF AIRMASSES
WITH HIGH PRESSURE N/E AGAINST ENERGY MOVING IN FROM THE W. WOULD
EXPECT CLOUDS TO BE ON THE INCREASE FROM THE W WITH THE APPROACH
OF THE VORTEX...BUT DRY SINKING AIR LINGERS N/E. HIGH RES GUIDANCE
HAS THE VORTEX SLINKING S/E OF OUR REGION UP AGAINST THE PREVAILING
HIGH OVER THE GULF OF MAINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...

TONIGHT...A SHORTWAVE WILL PASS SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS
EVENING...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY TO THE
SOUTH COAST.  CONTINUED CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
RADIATING OVERNIGHT.  LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO
AROUND 40.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  EXPECT
CLEARING SKIES THROUGH THE DAY...ALLOWING FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES.  HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW TO
MID 60S AWAY FROM THE COASTS.  SEA BREEZES ARE EXPECTED ONCE
AGAIN...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSEASONABLY COOL WITH PERIODS OF RAIN SUN INTO MON
* DRYING TREND LIKELY TUE AND POSSIBLY WED ALONG WITH MILDER TEMPS
* MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE THU

OVERVIEW...
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN DEVELOPING AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND W CANADA WITH DOWNSTREAM TROF OVER THE GT
LAKES. EXPECT A PERIOD OF COOL AND WET CONDITIONS SUN INTO MON AS
LOW PRES TRACKS S OF NEW ENG. A BRIEF DRYING TREND AND MILDER TEMPS
WILL FOLLOW TUE AND POSSIBLY INTO WED IN BETWEEN SHORTWAVES...THEN
MID LEVEL TROF AMPLIFIES OVER THE LAKES WITH ANOTHER PERIOD OF
COOLER AND WET WEATHER POSSIBLE BY THU.

SAT NIGHT...
HIGH PRES ACROSS E NEW ENG WILL SLOWLY MOVE E AS OVERRUNNING
MOISTURE APPROACHES FROM THE SW. GFS IS FASTEST MOVING RAIN INTO SNE
LATER SAT NIGHT...WHILE ECMWF/NAM/GGEM/UKMET KEEP RAIN TO THE WEST.
FOLLOWED CONSENSUS OF DRY FORECAST WITH JUST A LOW PROB OF LIGHT
RAIN REACHING W NEW ENG LATE SAT NIGHT.

SUN INTO MON...
MOST OF THIS PERIOD LIKELY TO BE COOL AND WET. INITIAL SHOT OF RAIN
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION DURING SUN FROM WEST TO EASY AS OVERRUNNING
OF SFC BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH LEADS TO DEEP MOISTURE AND MODEST LIFT
OVERSPREADING THE REGION. RAIN MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL SUN AFTERNOON
ACROSS E NEW ENG. LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS MOSTLY IN
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S SUNDAY. A SECOND PERIOD OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED SUN NIGHT INTO MON AS LOW PRES TRACKS S OF NEW
ENG...ALTHOUGH GFS LIKELY OVERDONE WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. ANOTHER
CHILLY DAY MON WITH TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL.

TUE INTO WED...
WEAK HIGH PRES SHOULD BRING MAINLY DRY WEATHER TUE WITH TEMPS
REBOUNDING TO NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST INTO WED AS MID LEVEL TROF
AXIS STILL BACK ACROSS GT LAKES.

THU...
LOOKS LIKE UNSETTLED WEATHER AND COOLER TEMPS WILL RETURN AS MID
LEVEL TROF AMPLIFIES ACROSS NE WITH POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER COASTAL
WAVE TO THE S OF NEW ENG WITH EASTERLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

LOW-END VFR CIGS WITH -SHRA PREVAIL S/W THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
WITH BREEZY SE WINDS BECOMING LIGHT. MODERATE RISK OF MVFR FOR S/W
CT AND RI AS WELL AS S COASTAL MASS TERMINALS. SATURDAY SHOULD BE
VFR WITH LIGHT MAINLY E FLOW.

KBOS TERMINAL...BREEZY E FLOW PREVAILS TODAY WITH A GRADUAL
VEERING FROM THE SE TOWARDS EVENING. VFR CIGS WITH A MOSTLY MID
LEVEL CLOUD DECK.

KBDL TERMINAL...VFR.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SAT NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR CIGS. LIGHT RAIN MAY REACH
W NEW ENG TOWARD DAYBREAK.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS WITH DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS TO MVFR AND LOCALIZED IFR POSSIBLE IN PERIODS OF RAIN.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. DRYING TREND WITH VFR AND LIGHT
WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER OVERALL. EXPECT WET WEATHER ACTIVITY LATE
TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT OVER THE S/W WATERS OFF OF THE S-COAST OF
RI/MASS. BREEZY SE FLOW WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS TODAY...ISOLATED
25 KTS...DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT WHILE REMAINING EASTERLY
ALL THE WAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SAT NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS.

SUNDAY INTO MON...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. INCREASING EASTERLY WINDS SUN
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...THEN SHIFTING TO NORTH DURING MON AS LOW PRES
MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. A PERIOD OF EASTERLY SCA GUSTS
POSSIBLE SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND AGAIN DURING MON AS WINDS
SHIFT TO NORTH. ROUGH SEAS GIVEN THE LONG ENE FETCH. VSBYS REDUCED
AT TIMES IN RAIN AND PATCHY FOG.

TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LIGHT WINDS BUT LEFTOVER SCA SEAS LIKELY
FOR EASTERN WATERS FROM ENE SWELLS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...KJC/RLG/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/RLG/SIPPRELL
MARINE...KJC/RLG/SIPPRELL




000
FXUS61 KOKX 291359
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
959 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK LOW MOVES FARTHER OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WITH ANOTHER WEAK LOW APPROACHING FROM THE WEST THROUGH
TONIGHT. FOR SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY RETURNS AS IT
BUILDS IN FROM CENTRAL CANADA. COOL AND UNSETTLED SUN AND MON AS
A STATIONARY FRONT SETS UP S OF THE REGION. WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS
IN ON TUE...FOLLOWED BY A POTENTIAL FRONTAL SYS FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE TODAY. COVERAGE SHOULD BE QUITE LOW
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. THE FCST WAS ON TRACK WITH NO MAJOR
CHANGES MADE. ANOTHER LEFT FRONT QUAD OF A JET STREAK APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST LATE TODAY ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE ALOFT. AT
THE SURFACE...WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE INTO THE
ATLANTIC WITH ANOTHER WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. THERE WILL BE ABUNDANT CLOUDS AND WITH THE PRESSURE
PATTERN...EASTERLY FLOW WILL BE SET IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY.
ANOTHER COOL DAY IS EXPECTED. USED THE MET GUIDANCE AS THAT
GUIDANCE PERFORMED PRETTY WELL YESTERDAY COMPARED TO OBSERVED
TEMPERATURES. RAIN CHANCES ARE LOW TO BEGIN THE DAY BUT INCREASE
TOWARDS THE END OF THE DAY AS THAT LEFT FRONT QUAD OF THE UPPER
LEVEL JET MOVES CLOSER...ALLOWING FOR BETTER LIFT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
FOR TONIGHT...HIGHEST CHANCES OF RAIN ARE THIS EVENING WITH THE
LEFT FRONT QUAD OF THE UPPER JET RIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
SHIFTS SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT WITH A LIKEWISE DECREASE OF POPS FOR
RAIN AS THE LOW SHIFTS FARTHER OUT TO SEA AT THE SURFACE. ABUNDANT
CLOUDS AND ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUE SO USED A RELATIVELY WARMER BLEND
OF GUIDANCE FOR LOWS...1/3 NAM12 SFC TEMPERATURES AND 2/3 MAV
GUIDANCE.

FOR SATURDAY...A BRIEF REVISIT OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH RIDGING
ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR RELATIVELY WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY. THE SOURCE REGION OF THE HIGH IS IN
CENTRAL CANADA. HIGHEST TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS THE INTERIOR
WITH A SE FLOW IN PLACE IN THE AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL KEEP COASTAL
LOCATIONS RELATIVELY COOLER WITH MORE MARINE INFLUENCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
00Z MODEL SUITE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST PERIODS OF RAINY WX SUN AND
MON. QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT SETS UP S OF THE REGION SAT NGT THRU THE
REST OF THE WEEKEND. DEEP TROF ACROSS THE WRN CONUS SHOULD TAP THE
SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC AND FUNNEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. MOISTURE
STREAM INTO MEXICO ALREADY APPARENT ON WATER VAPOR. RESIDUAL
CONVECTION PROGGED TO SUPPLY EMBEDDED SHRTWV ENERGY...WITH RAIN CHCS
THEREFORE BREAKING OUT LATE SAT NGT AND PARTICULARLY ON SUN. LOW
PRES DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT THEN LIKELY IMPACTS THE AREA DURING
THE SUN NGT-MON TIME PERIOD. THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD
AMONGST THE GFS AND ECMWF WRT THE EXACT LATITUDE OF THE LOW PRES
SYS...AND AS A RESULT THE AMT OF RAIN WHICH CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE CWA. TOO MANY MOVING PARTS TO ADEQUATELY PINPOINT TIMING ON
SUN...SO HAVE KEPT POPS AT LIKELY. WRT THE LOW...SYS IS TOO FAR OUT
TO RAISE POPS ABV HIGH CHC ATTM. IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW...CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT ON TUE. THIS COULD SPARK A FEW SHWRS OR SPRINKLES...AS
LAPSE RATES PER THE GFS AROUND 9C/KM UP TO H85. H5 LOW DROPS TO
JAMES BAY TUE NGT...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF IN AGREEMENT ON
THIS...AND EVENTUALLY CARVES OUT A BROAD UPR TROF ACROSS THE NERN
CONUS WED AND THU. THIS SUPPORTS CHCS FOR AT LEAST SHWRS...WITH THE
SUGGESTION OF A POTENTIAL SPINUP OFFSHORE WHICH WOULD BRING A CHC
FOR MORE ORGANIZED RAINFALL IN THE WED-THU PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND A
STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

VFR. LIGHT RAIN WILL LIKELY DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST.

E WINDS EITHER SIDE OF 10 KT THIS MORNING SHOULD VEER A LITTLE
MORE SE THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTS 15-20 KT THIS MORNING ALONG THE
COAST.

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS FLUCTUATING BETWEEN 090-110 MAGNETIC
THIS MORNING. ITWS SPEEDS/GUSTS ARE LIKELY OVERDONE BY A
COUPLE KT.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SAT THROUGH TUE...
.SAT...VFR.
.SUN-MON...RAIN WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS.
.TUE...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
OCEAN SEAS ARE SLOWLY BUILDING. SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS GOES
THROUGH THE DAY AND UP TO MIDNIGHT. HAZARDOUS SEAS COULD LINGER
LONGER THAN THAT BASED ON NWPS...WILL ADDRESS THIS LATER. THIS
WILL BE A MARGINAL EVENT AS OTHER WATERS AND ALL WINDS WILL BE
BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH SAT NIGHT.

NE WINDS INCREASE ON SUNDAY WITH SCA CONDS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
ON THE OCEAN. LINGERING SEAS AROUND 5 FT ON THE OCEAN MON...THEN
WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS TUE. POTENTIAL FOR 5 FT SEAS ON THE
OCEAN AGAIN ON WED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH TONIGHT SHOULD BE LESS THAN 1/4 INCH.

AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE LATE SAT NGT THRU SUNDAY.
ADDITIONAL RAIN IS POSSIBLE ON MON...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT
TRACK...SPEED AND INTENSITY OF PASSING LOW PRES.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT
     TONIGHT FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JMC/JM
NEAR TERM...JMC/JM/PW
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...JC/GOODMAN
MARINE...JMC/JM/PW
HYDROLOGY...JMC/JM




000
FXUS61 KALY 291344
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
935 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER TODAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT THIS EVENING. APRIL WILL END WITH A DRY DAY
ALONG WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...MAY WILL START OUT COOL AND WET WITH A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IMPACTS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 940 AM EDT...RADAR SHOWING A FEW POSSIBLE LIGHT SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES WORKING ACROSS THE CATSKILLS. OTHERWISE IT WAS MAINLY
CLOUDY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD (HIGH CLOUDS) BUT MOSTLY
SUNNY FROM ABOUT SARATOGA SPRINGS NORTHWARD.

DRIER AIR WAS SLOWLY PUSHING SOUTHWARD SO WE EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO
PARTIALLY ERODE...AT LEAST INTO THE CAPITOL REGION THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. ANY SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES SHOULD BE CONFINED TO NEAR THE I-
84 CORRIDOR.

LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AS SHORT WAVE HEADS FROM THE WEST...THE
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO ADVANCE NORTHWARD AGAIN...BY LATE IN THE  DAY.

NO CHANGES TO HIGH TEMPERATURES AS THEY WILL TOP OUT NEAR 60 IN THE
VALLEYS...50S HIGHER TERRAIN.


A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION IS ON THE APPROACH.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BY LATE IN THE DAY FOR
THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATES
88 AND 90 BY LATE IN THE DAY.

CLOUD COVER WILL BE LEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOST PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHICH WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCED OF CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL TODAY...MORE SO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUDS. EXPECTING
AFTERNOON HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S WITH SOME 40S ACROSS THE HIGHEST
TERRAIN ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS.

LIGHT NORTHEAST-EAST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE LAST DAY OF APRIL...SATURDAY...WILL BE DRY WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES AS THE REGION IS IN BETWEEN SHORT WAVES AND SOME
HIGHER PRESSURE NOSES SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA. HIGHS WILL MAINLY
RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

MAY WILL START OUT COOL AND WET. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE ON
THE APPROACH FROM THE PLAINS AS MORE SHORT WAVE ENERGY ALSO HEADS
OUR WAY. THESE FEATURES WILL HELP ESTABLISH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE REGION AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE GUIDANCE HAS
THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENING AS IT PASSES TO OUR SOUTH OVER THE
DELMARVA REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. LOOKING AT A WIDESPREAD OVERRUNNING
RAINFALL DEVELOPING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH QPF AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ANTICIPATED. THIS
RAINFALL WILL BE BENEFICIAL DUE TO DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS FOR
THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL WITH THE RAIN
AND CLOUDS WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER/MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST OPENS WET AND UNSETTLED FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF
MAY WITH A MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH IN CONTROL OVER THE ERN CONUS.

MONDAY OPENS WITH LOW PRESSURE PASSING SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND.
A PERIOD OF STRATIFORM RAINFALL IS LIKELY TO TAPER TO SCT SHOWERS BY
THE AFTERNOON.  LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE E/NE TOWARDS NOVA
SCOTIA BY NIGHTFALL.  SOME MID AND UPPER DEFORMATION ZONE SHOWERS
WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING.  HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE ON THE COOL
SIDE...AND ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...WITH GENERALLY MID AND U50S
IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND M40S TO L50S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.
LOWS MON NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID AND U30S NORTH AND WEST OF
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT TO U30S TO L40S FROM THE TRI CITIES SOUTH AND
EAST.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...MOST OF THIS TIME FRAME SHOULD BE DRY BASED ON THE
ECMWF/GFS/GEFS/WPC GUIDANCE WITH A BROAD SFC ANTICYCLONE RIDGING IN
CENTERED OVER THE PLAINS.  SOME SPRINKLES OR AN ISOLD SHOWER IS
POSSIBLE LATE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE ERN GREAT LAKES
AND THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY.  HIGHS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH
H850 TEMPS RISING BACK TO +2C TO +4C OVER THE REGION...AND MAX TEMPS
IN THE LOWER TO M60S OVER THE VALLEYS...AND M50S TO L60S OVER THE
HILLS AND MTNS.  INCREASING CLOUDS WITH THE THREAT OF AN ISOLD
SHOWER IS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S WITH
SOME U30S OVER THE SRN DACKS AND SRN GREENS.

WED-THU...THE FORECAST BECOMES A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN BASED ON THE
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE ON THE EVOLUTION OF AN H500 UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. THE GFS HAS A FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH A SHORT-WAVE MOVING
THROUGH WED FOR A CHC OF SHOWERS. THE ECMWF AND SEVERAL ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS HAVE A DIGGING H500 TROUGH WITH A SFC WAVE MOVING ALONG THE
EAST COAST BRINGING SCT SHOWERS LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU.  WED WOULD
ACTUALLY BE DRIER IN BETWEEN SOME NRN AND SRN STREAM ENERGY.  TEMPS
ON BOTH DAYS SHOULD BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE WARMER
OF THE TWO DAYS WED...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND U60 OVER THE
VALLEYS...AND U50S TO L60S OVER THE MTNS...AND M50S TO M60S OVER THE
REGION ON THU.  SCT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY
ON WED...AND EXPANDING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WED NIGHT INTO
THU.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITION ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 18 HRS ENDING 06Z/SAT
FOR KGFL...KPSF...KALB...AND KPOU.


HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE IN FROM S/SE QUEBEC THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS PASS TO
THE SOUTH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...AND MID ATLANTIC REGION.

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING...BUT SOME LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF KALB WHERE CIGS MAY LOWER
TO 5-6 KFT AGL NEAR KPOU BTW 14Z-18Z.  THESE LOWER CIGS WILL EXPAND
NORTHWARD TO KALB-KPSF IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH 4-6 KFT AGL CIGS.
EXPECT MID OR HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO PREVAIL AT KGFL INTO THE
AFTERNOON.  SOME LIGHT RAIN OR RAIN SHOWERS MAY REACH LOCATIONS
SOUTH OF KALB-KPSF IN THE EARLY EVENING...AND VCSH GROUPS WERE USED
SHORTLY BEFORE OR JUST AFTER 00Z/SAT.  THE SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THE
LONGEST AT KPOU/KPSF...AND SOME HIGH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL LIKELY
LINGER AT KPOU.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE N TO NE AROUND 5 KTS THIS MORNING...AND
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT 5 KTS PRIOR TO NOONTIME. EXPECT E
TO S/SE WINDS OF LESS 7 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON...BECOMING LIGHT TO
CALM AFTER 00Z/SAT.

.OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY WITH A PERIOD OF
SHOWERS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN CATSKILLS...MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT THIS EVENING. APRIL
WILL END WITH A DRY DAY ALONG WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...MAY WILL START OUT COOL AND WET WITH A
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 40S THIS
AFTERNOON. MINIMUMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 30S SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH VALUES IN THE 40S ACROSS THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS...WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...LESS THAN 10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

SOME LIGHT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FROM
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH QPF AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH
ANTICIPATED. THIS RAINFALL WILL BE BENEFICIAL DUE TO DRY ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS FOR THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED LATER IN THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...HWJIV/WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA/JPV




000
FXUS61 KALY 291344
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
935 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER TODAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT THIS EVENING. APRIL WILL END WITH A DRY DAY
ALONG WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...MAY WILL START OUT COOL AND WET WITH A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IMPACTS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 940 AM EDT...RADAR SHOWING A FEW POSSIBLE LIGHT SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES WORKING ACROSS THE CATSKILLS. OTHERWISE IT WAS MAINLY
CLOUDY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD (HIGH CLOUDS) BUT MOSTLY
SUNNY FROM ABOUT SARATOGA SPRINGS NORTHWARD.

DRIER AIR WAS SLOWLY PUSHING SOUTHWARD SO WE EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO
PARTIALLY ERODE...AT LEAST INTO THE CAPITOL REGION THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. ANY SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES SHOULD BE CONFINED TO NEAR THE I-
84 CORRIDOR.

LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AS SHORT WAVE HEADS FROM THE WEST...THE
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO ADVANCE NORTHWARD AGAIN...BY LATE IN THE  DAY.

NO CHANGES TO HIGH TEMPERATURES AS THEY WILL TOP OUT NEAR 60 IN THE
VALLEYS...50S HIGHER TERRAIN.


A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION IS ON THE APPROACH.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BY LATE IN THE DAY FOR
THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATES
88 AND 90 BY LATE IN THE DAY.

CLOUD COVER WILL BE LEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOST PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHICH WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCED OF CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL TODAY...MORE SO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUDS. EXPECTING
AFTERNOON HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S WITH SOME 40S ACROSS THE HIGHEST
TERRAIN ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS.

LIGHT NORTHEAST-EAST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE LAST DAY OF APRIL...SATURDAY...WILL BE DRY WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES AS THE REGION IS IN BETWEEN SHORT WAVES AND SOME
HIGHER PRESSURE NOSES SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA. HIGHS WILL MAINLY
RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

MAY WILL START OUT COOL AND WET. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE ON
THE APPROACH FROM THE PLAINS AS MORE SHORT WAVE ENERGY ALSO HEADS
OUR WAY. THESE FEATURES WILL HELP ESTABLISH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE REGION AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE GUIDANCE HAS
THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENING AS IT PASSES TO OUR SOUTH OVER THE
DELMARVA REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. LOOKING AT A WIDESPREAD OVERRUNNING
RAINFALL DEVELOPING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH QPF AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ANTICIPATED. THIS
RAINFALL WILL BE BENEFICIAL DUE TO DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS FOR
THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL WITH THE RAIN
AND CLOUDS WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER/MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST OPENS WET AND UNSETTLED FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF
MAY WITH A MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH IN CONTROL OVER THE ERN CONUS.

MONDAY OPENS WITH LOW PRESSURE PASSING SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND.
A PERIOD OF STRATIFORM RAINFALL IS LIKELY TO TAPER TO SCT SHOWERS BY
THE AFTERNOON.  LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE E/NE TOWARDS NOVA
SCOTIA BY NIGHTFALL.  SOME MID AND UPPER DEFORMATION ZONE SHOWERS
WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING.  HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE ON THE COOL
SIDE...AND ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...WITH GENERALLY MID AND U50S
IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND M40S TO L50S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.
LOWS MON NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID AND U30S NORTH AND WEST OF
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT TO U30S TO L40S FROM THE TRI CITIES SOUTH AND
EAST.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...MOST OF THIS TIME FRAME SHOULD BE DRY BASED ON THE
ECMWF/GFS/GEFS/WPC GUIDANCE WITH A BROAD SFC ANTICYCLONE RIDGING IN
CENTERED OVER THE PLAINS.  SOME SPRINKLES OR AN ISOLD SHOWER IS
POSSIBLE LATE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE ERN GREAT LAKES
AND THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY.  HIGHS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH
H850 TEMPS RISING BACK TO +2C TO +4C OVER THE REGION...AND MAX TEMPS
IN THE LOWER TO M60S OVER THE VALLEYS...AND M50S TO L60S OVER THE
HILLS AND MTNS.  INCREASING CLOUDS WITH THE THREAT OF AN ISOLD
SHOWER IS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S WITH
SOME U30S OVER THE SRN DACKS AND SRN GREENS.

WED-THU...THE FORECAST BECOMES A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN BASED ON THE
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE ON THE EVOLUTION OF AN H500 UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. THE GFS HAS A FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH A SHORT-WAVE MOVING
THROUGH WED FOR A CHC OF SHOWERS. THE ECMWF AND SEVERAL ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS HAVE A DIGGING H500 TROUGH WITH A SFC WAVE MOVING ALONG THE
EAST COAST BRINGING SCT SHOWERS LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU.  WED WOULD
ACTUALLY BE DRIER IN BETWEEN SOME NRN AND SRN STREAM ENERGY.  TEMPS
ON BOTH DAYS SHOULD BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE WARMER
OF THE TWO DAYS WED...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND U60 OVER THE
VALLEYS...AND U50S TO L60S OVER THE MTNS...AND M50S TO M60S OVER THE
REGION ON THU.  SCT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY
ON WED...AND EXPANDING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WED NIGHT INTO
THU.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITION ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 18 HRS ENDING 06Z/SAT
FOR KGFL...KPSF...KALB...AND KPOU.


HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE IN FROM S/SE QUEBEC THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS PASS TO
THE SOUTH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...AND MID ATLANTIC REGION.

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING...BUT SOME LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF KALB WHERE CIGS MAY LOWER
TO 5-6 KFT AGL NEAR KPOU BTW 14Z-18Z.  THESE LOWER CIGS WILL EXPAND
NORTHWARD TO KALB-KPSF IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH 4-6 KFT AGL CIGS.
EXPECT MID OR HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO PREVAIL AT KGFL INTO THE
AFTERNOON.  SOME LIGHT RAIN OR RAIN SHOWERS MAY REACH LOCATIONS
SOUTH OF KALB-KPSF IN THE EARLY EVENING...AND VCSH GROUPS WERE USED
SHORTLY BEFORE OR JUST AFTER 00Z/SAT.  THE SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THE
LONGEST AT KPOU/KPSF...AND SOME HIGH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL LIKELY
LINGER AT KPOU.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE N TO NE AROUND 5 KTS THIS MORNING...AND
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT 5 KTS PRIOR TO NOONTIME. EXPECT E
TO S/SE WINDS OF LESS 7 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON...BECOMING LIGHT TO
CALM AFTER 00Z/SAT.

.OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY WITH A PERIOD OF
SHOWERS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN CATSKILLS...MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT THIS EVENING. APRIL
WILL END WITH A DRY DAY ALONG WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...MAY WILL START OUT COOL AND WET WITH A
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 40S THIS
AFTERNOON. MINIMUMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 30S SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH VALUES IN THE 40S ACROSS THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS...WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...LESS THAN 10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

SOME LIGHT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FROM
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH QPF AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH
ANTICIPATED. THIS RAINFALL WILL BE BENEFICIAL DUE TO DRY ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS FOR THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED LATER IN THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...HWJIV/WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA/JPV




000
FXUS61 KOKX 291332
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
932 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK LOW MOVES FARTHER OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WITH ANOTHER WEAK LOW APPROACHING FROM THE WEST THROUGH
TONIGHT. FOR SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY RETURNS AS IT
BUILDS IN FROM CENTRAL CANADA. COOL AND UNSETTLED SUN AND MON AS
A STATIONARY FRONT SETS UP S OF THE REGION. WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS
IN ON TUE...FOLLOWED BY A POTENTIAL FRONTAL SYS FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE TODAY. COVERAGE SHOULD BE QUITE LOW
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. THE FCST WAS ON TRACK WITH NO MAJOR
CHANGES MADE. ANOTHER LEFT FRONT QUAD OF A JET STREAK APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST LATE TODAY ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE ALOFT. AT
THE SURFACE...WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE INTO THE
ATLANTIC WITH ANOTHER WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. THERE WILL BE ABUNDANT CLOUDS AND WITH THE PRESSURE
PATTERN...EASTERLY FLOW WILL BE SET IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY.
ANOTHER COOL DAY IS EXPECTED. USED THE MET GUIDANCE AS THAT
GUIDANCE PERFORMED PRETTY WELL YESTERDAY COMPARED TO OBSERVED
TEMPERATURES. RAIN CHANCES ARE LOW TO BEGIN THE DAY BUT INCREASE
TOWARDS THE END OF THE DAY AS THAT LEFT FRONT QUAD OF THE UPPER
LEVEL JET MOVES CLOSER...ALLOWING FOR BETTER LIFT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
FOR TONIGHT...HIGHEST CHANCES OF RAIN ARE THIS EVENING WITH THE
LEFT FRONT QUAD OF THE UPPER JET RIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
SHIFTS SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT WITH A LIKEWISE DECREASE OF POPS FOR
RAIN AS THE LOW SHIFTS FARTHER OUT TO SEA AT THE SURFACE. ABUNDANT
CLOUDS AND ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUE SO USED A RELATIVELY WARMER BLEND
OF GUIDANCE FOR LOWS...1/3 NAM12 SFC TEMPERATURES AND 2/3 MAV
GUIDANCE.

FOR SATURDAY...A BRIEF REVISIT OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH RIDGING
ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR RELATIVELY WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY. THE SOURCE REGION OF THE HIGH IS IN
CENTRAL CANADA. HIGHEST TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS THE INTERIOR
WITH A SE FLOW IN PLACE IN THE AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL KEEP COASTAL
LOCATIONS RELATIVELY COOLER WITH MORE MARINE INFLUENCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
00Z MODEL SUITE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST PERIODS OF RAINY WX SUN AND
MON. QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT SETS UP S OF THE REGION SAT NGT THRU THE
REST OF THE WEEKEND. DEEP TROF ACROSS THE WRN CONUS SHOULD TAP THE
SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC AND FUNNEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. MOISTURE
STREAM INTO MEXICO ALREADY APPARENT ON WATER VAPOR. RESIDUAL
CONVECTION PROGGED TO SUPPLY EMBEDDED SHRTWV ENERGY...WITH RAIN CHCS
THEREFORE BREAKING OUT LATE SAT NGT AND PARTICULARLY ON SUN. LOW
PRES DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT THEN LIKELY IMPACTS THE AREA DURING
THE SUN NGT-MON TIME PERIOD. THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD
AMONGST THE GFS AND ECMWF WRT THE EXACT LATITUDE OF THE LOW PRES
SYS...AND AS A RESULT THE AMT OF RAIN WHICH CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE CWA. TOO MANY MOVING PARTS TO ADEQUATELY PINPOINT TIMING ON
SUN...SO HAVE KEPT POPS AT LIKELY. WRT THE LOW...SYS IS TOO FAR OUT
TO RAISE POPS ABV HIGH CHC ATTM. IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW...CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT ON TUE. THIS COULD SPARK A FEW SHWRS OR SPRINKLES...AS
LAPSE RATES PER THE GFS AROUND 9C/KM UP TO H85. H5 LOW DROPS TO
JAMES BAY TUE NGT...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF IN AGREEMENT ON
THIS...AND EVENTUALLY CARVES OUT A BROAD UPR TROF ACROSS THE NERN
CONUS WED AND THU. THIS SUPPORTS CHCS FOR AT LEAST SHWRS...WITH THE
SUGGESTION OF A POTENTIAL SPINUP OFFSHORE WHICH WOULD BRING A CHC
FOR MORE ORGANIZED RAINFALL IN THE WED-THU PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND A
STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

VFR. ISO/SCT SHOWERS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE MORNING. LIGHT
RAIN THEN LIKELY REDEVELOPS LATE THIS AFTN INTO EVE ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS FROM W TO E.

E WINDS AROUND 10 KT INTO THIS EVENING.

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.SAT...VFR.
.SUN THROUGH MON...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN RAIN.
.TUE...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
OCEAN SEAS ARE SLOWLY INCREASING. SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS GOES
THROUGH THE DAY AND UP TO MIDNIGHT. IT COULD LINGER LONGER BASED
ON THE SWAN MODEL BUT DID NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE FOR TOO LONG
OF AN EXTENSION IN TIME. WILL ADDRESS THIS LATER. OVERALL THIS
WILL BE A MARGINAL EVENT AS OTHER WATERS AND ALL WINDS WILL BE
WELL BELOW SCA CRITERIA TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS SAT NGT...THEN NELY WINDS INCREASE ON
SUN WITH SCA COND POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN. LINGERING SEAS
AROUND 5 FT ON THE OCEAN MON...THEN WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS TUE.
POTENTIAL FOR 5 FT SEAS ON THE OCEAN AGAIN WED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN A
QUARTER OF AN INCH.

AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE LATE SAT NGT THRU SUN. ADDITIONAL
RAIN IS POSSIBLE ON MON...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK...SPEED AND
INTENSITY OF PASSING LOW PRES.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT
     TONIGHT FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/JM
NEAR TERM...JMC/JM/PW
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JMC/JM/PW
HYDROLOGY...JMC/JM




000
FXUS61 KALY 291150
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
750 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER TODAY WITH A PERIOD OF SHOWERS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT THIS EVENING. APRIL WILL END WITH A DRY
DAY ALONG WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES SATURDAY. HOWEVER...MAY
WILL START OUT COOL AND WET WITH A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS
THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST MAINLY TO CLOUD COVER
AND TEMPERATURES FOR THIS MORNING.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION IS AN THE
APPROACH. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BY LATE IN
THE DAY FOR THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA MAINLY SOUTH
OF INTERSTATES 88 AND 90 BY LATE IN THE DAY.

CLOUD COVER WILL BE LEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOST PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHICH WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCED OF CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL TODAY...MORE SO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUDS. EXPECTING
AFTERNOON HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S WITH SOME 40S ACROSS THE HIGHEST
TERRAIN ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS.

LIGHT NORTHEAST-EAST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE LAST DAY OF APRIL...SATURDAY...WILL BE DRY WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES AS THE REGION IS IN BETWEEN SHORT WAVES AND SOME
HIGHER PRESSURE NOSES SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA. HIGHS WILL MAINLY
RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

MAY WILL START OUT COOL AND WET. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE ON
THE APPROACH FROM THE PLAINS AS MORE SHORT WAVE ENERGY ALSO HEADS
OUR WAY. THESE FEATURES WILL HELP ESTABLISH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE REGION AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE GUIDANCE HAS
THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENING AS IT PASSES TO OUR SOUTH OVER THE
DELMARVA REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. LOOKING AT A WIDESPREAD OVERRUNNING
RAINFALL DEVELOPING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH QPF AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ANTICIPATED. THIS
RAINFALL WILL BE BENEFICIAL DUE TO DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS FOR
THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL WITH THE RAIN
AND CLOUDS WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER/MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST OPENS WET AND UNSETTLED FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF
MAY WITH A MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH IN CONTROL OVER THE ERN CONUS.

MONDAY OPENS WITH LOW PRESSURE PASSING SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND.
A PERIOD OF STRATIFORM RAINFALL IS LIKELY TO TAPER TO SCT SHOWERS BY
THE AFTERNOON.  LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE E/NE TOWARDS NOVA
SCOTIA BY NIGHTFALL.  SOME MID AND UPPER DEFORMATION ZONE SHOWERS
WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING.  HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE ON THE COOL
SIDE...AND ABOUT 10 DEGS BELOW NORMAL...WITH GENERALLY MID AND U50S
IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND M40S TO L50S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.
LOWS MON NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID AND U30S NORTH AND WEST OF
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT TO U30S TO L40S FROM THE TRI CITIES SOUTH AND
EAST.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...MOST OF THIS TIME FRAME SHOULD BE DRY BASED ON THE
ECMWF/GFS/GEFS/WPC GUIDANCE WITH A BROAD SFC ANTICYCLONE RIDGING IN
CENTERED OVER THE PLAINS.  SOME SPRINKLES OR AN ISOLD SHOWER IS
POSSIBLE LATE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE ERN GREAT LAKES
AND THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY.  HIGHS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH
H850 TEMPS RISING BACK TO +2C TO +4C OVER THE REGION...AND MAX TEMPS
IN THE LOWER TO M60S OVER THE VALLEYS...AND M50S TO L60S OVER THE
HILLS AND MTNS.  INCREASING CLOUDS WITH THE THREAT OF AN ISOLD
SHOWER IS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S WITH
SOME U30S OVER THE SRN DACKS AND SRN GREENS.

WED-THU...THE FORECAST BECOMES A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN BASED ON THE
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE ON THE EVOLUTION OF AN H500 UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. THE GFS HAS A FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH A SHORT-WAVE MOVING
THROUGH WED FOR A CHC OF SHOWERS. THE ECMWF AND SEVERAL ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS HAVE A DIGGING H500 TROUGH WITH A SFC WAVE MOVING ALONG THE
EAST COAST BRINGING SCT SHOWERS LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU.  WED WOULD
ACTUALLY BE DRIER IN BETWEEN SOME NRN AND SRN STREAM ENERGY.  TEMPS
ON BOTH DAYS SHOULD BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE WARMER
OF THE TWO DAYS WED...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND U60 OVER THE
VALLEYS...AND U50S TO L60S OVER THE MTNS...AND M50S TO M60S OVER THE
REGION ON THU.  SCT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY
ON WED...AND EXPANDING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FCST AREA WED NIGHT INTO
THU.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITION ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 18 HRS ENDING 06Z/SAT
FOR KGFL...KPSF...KALB...AND KPOU.


HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE IN FROM S/SE QUEBEC THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS PASS TO
THE SOUTH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...AND MID ATLANTIC REGION.

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING...BUT SOME LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF KALB WHERE CIGS MAY LOWER
TO 5-6 KFT AGL NEAR KPOU BTWN 14Z-18Z.  THESE LOWER CIGS WILL EXPAND
NORTHWARD TO KALB-KPSF IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH 4-6 KFT AGL CIGS.
EXPECT MID OR HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO PREVAIL AT KGFL INTO THE
AFTERNOON.  SOME LIGHT RAIN OR RAIN SHOWERS MAY REACH LOCATIONS
SOUTH OF KALB-KPSF IN THE EARLY EVENING...AND VCSH GROUPS WERE USED
SHORTLY BEFORE OR JUST AFTER 00Z/SAT.  THE SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THE
LONGEST AT KPOU/KPSF...AND SOME HIGH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL LIKELY
LINGER AT KPOU.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE N TO NE AROUND 5 KTS THIS MORNING...AND
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT 5 KTS PRIOR TO NOONTIME. EXPECT E
TO S/SE WINDS OF LESS 7 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON...BECOMING LIGHT TO
CALM AFTER 00Z/SAT.

.OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY WITH A PERIOD OF
SHOWERS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN CATSKILLS...MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT THIS EVENING. APRIL
WILL END WITH A DRY DAY ALONG WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...MAY WILL START OUT COOL AND WET WITH A
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 40S THIS
AFTERNOON. MINIMUMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 30S SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH VALUES IN THE 40S ACROSS THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS...WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...LESS THAN 10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

SOME LIGHT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FROM
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH QPF AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH
ANTICIPATED. THIS RAINFALL WILL BE BENEFICIAL DUE TO DRY ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS FOR THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED LATER IN THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...HWJIV/WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA/JPV




000
FXUS61 KALY 291150
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
750 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER TODAY WITH A PERIOD OF SHOWERS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT THIS EVENING. APRIL WILL END WITH A DRY
DAY ALONG WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES SATURDAY. HOWEVER...MAY
WILL START OUT COOL AND WET WITH A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS
THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST MAINLY TO CLOUD COVER
AND TEMPERATURES FOR THIS MORNING.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION IS AN THE
APPROACH. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BY LATE IN
THE DAY FOR THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA MAINLY SOUTH
OF INTERSTATES 88 AND 90 BY LATE IN THE DAY.

CLOUD COVER WILL BE LEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOST PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHICH WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCED OF CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL TODAY...MORE SO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUDS. EXPECTING
AFTERNOON HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S WITH SOME 40S ACROSS THE HIGHEST
TERRAIN ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS.

LIGHT NORTHEAST-EAST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE LAST DAY OF APRIL...SATURDAY...WILL BE DRY WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES AS THE REGION IS IN BETWEEN SHORT WAVES AND SOME
HIGHER PRESSURE NOSES SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA. HIGHS WILL MAINLY
RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

MAY WILL START OUT COOL AND WET. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE ON
THE APPROACH FROM THE PLAINS AS MORE SHORT WAVE ENERGY ALSO HEADS
OUR WAY. THESE FEATURES WILL HELP ESTABLISH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE REGION AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE GUIDANCE HAS
THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENING AS IT PASSES TO OUR SOUTH OVER THE
DELMARVA REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. LOOKING AT A WIDESPREAD OVERRUNNING
RAINFALL DEVELOPING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH QPF AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ANTICIPATED. THIS
RAINFALL WILL BE BENEFICIAL DUE TO DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS FOR
THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL WITH THE RAIN
AND CLOUDS WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER/MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST OPENS WET AND UNSETTLED FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF
MAY WITH A MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH IN CONTROL OVER THE ERN CONUS.

MONDAY OPENS WITH LOW PRESSURE PASSING SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND.
A PERIOD OF STRATIFORM RAINFALL IS LIKELY TO TAPER TO SCT SHOWERS BY
THE AFTERNOON.  LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE E/NE TOWARDS NOVA
SCOTIA BY NIGHTFALL.  SOME MID AND UPPER DEFORMATION ZONE SHOWERS
WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING.  HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE ON THE COOL
SIDE...AND ABOUT 10 DEGS BELOW NORMAL...WITH GENERALLY MID AND U50S
IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND M40S TO L50S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.
LOWS MON NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID AND U30S NORTH AND WEST OF
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT TO U30S TO L40S FROM THE TRI CITIES SOUTH AND
EAST.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...MOST OF THIS TIME FRAME SHOULD BE DRY BASED ON THE
ECMWF/GFS/GEFS/WPC GUIDANCE WITH A BROAD SFC ANTICYCLONE RIDGING IN
CENTERED OVER THE PLAINS.  SOME SPRINKLES OR AN ISOLD SHOWER IS
POSSIBLE LATE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE ERN GREAT LAKES
AND THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY.  HIGHS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH
H850 TEMPS RISING BACK TO +2C TO +4C OVER THE REGION...AND MAX TEMPS
IN THE LOWER TO M60S OVER THE VALLEYS...AND M50S TO L60S OVER THE
HILLS AND MTNS.  INCREASING CLOUDS WITH THE THREAT OF AN ISOLD
SHOWER IS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S WITH
SOME U30S OVER THE SRN DACKS AND SRN GREENS.

WED-THU...THE FORECAST BECOMES A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN BASED ON THE
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE ON THE EVOLUTION OF AN H500 UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. THE GFS HAS A FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH A SHORT-WAVE MOVING
THROUGH WED FOR A CHC OF SHOWERS. THE ECMWF AND SEVERAL ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS HAVE A DIGGING H500 TROUGH WITH A SFC WAVE MOVING ALONG THE
EAST COAST BRINGING SCT SHOWERS LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU.  WED WOULD
ACTUALLY BE DRIER IN BETWEEN SOME NRN AND SRN STREAM ENERGY.  TEMPS
ON BOTH DAYS SHOULD BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE WARMER
OF THE TWO DAYS WED...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND U60 OVER THE
VALLEYS...AND U50S TO L60S OVER THE MTNS...AND M50S TO M60S OVER THE
REGION ON THU.  SCT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY
ON WED...AND EXPANDING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FCST AREA WED NIGHT INTO
THU.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITION ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 18 HRS ENDING 06Z/SAT
FOR KGFL...KPSF...KALB...AND KPOU.


HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE IN FROM S/SE QUEBEC THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS PASS TO
THE SOUTH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...AND MID ATLANTIC REGION.

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING...BUT SOME LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF KALB WHERE CIGS MAY LOWER
TO 5-6 KFT AGL NEAR KPOU BTWN 14Z-18Z.  THESE LOWER CIGS WILL EXPAND
NORTHWARD TO KALB-KPSF IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH 4-6 KFT AGL CIGS.
EXPECT MID OR HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO PREVAIL AT KGFL INTO THE
AFTERNOON.  SOME LIGHT RAIN OR RAIN SHOWERS MAY REACH LOCATIONS
SOUTH OF KALB-KPSF IN THE EARLY EVENING...AND VCSH GROUPS WERE USED
SHORTLY BEFORE OR JUST AFTER 00Z/SAT.  THE SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THE
LONGEST AT KPOU/KPSF...AND SOME HIGH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL LIKELY
LINGER AT KPOU.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE N TO NE AROUND 5 KTS THIS MORNING...AND
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT 5 KTS PRIOR TO NOONTIME. EXPECT E
TO S/SE WINDS OF LESS 7 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON...BECOMING LIGHT TO
CALM AFTER 00Z/SAT.

.OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY WITH A PERIOD OF
SHOWERS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN CATSKILLS...MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT THIS EVENING. APRIL
WILL END WITH A DRY DAY ALONG WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...MAY WILL START OUT COOL AND WET WITH A
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 40S THIS
AFTERNOON. MINIMUMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 30S SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH VALUES IN THE 40S ACROSS THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS...WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...LESS THAN 10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

SOME LIGHT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FROM
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH QPF AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH
ANTICIPATED. THIS RAINFALL WILL BE BENEFICIAL DUE TO DRY ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS FOR THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED LATER IN THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...HWJIV/WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA/JPV




000
FXUS61 KOKX 291129
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
729 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK LOW MOVES FARTHER OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WITH ANOTHER WEAK LOW APPROACHING FROM THE WEST THROUGH
TONIGHT. FOR SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY RETURNS AS IT
BUILDS IN FROM CENTRAL CANADA. COOL AND UNSETTLED SUN AND MON AS
A STATIONARY FRONT SETS UP S OF THE REGION. WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS
IN ON TUE...FOLLOWED BY A POTENTIAL FRONTAL SYS FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MINOR UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS THIS MRNG. OTHERWISE...THE FCST
WAS ON TRACK WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE. ANOTHER LEFT FRONT QUAD
OF A JET STREAK APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TODAY ASSOCIATED WITH A
SHORTWAVE ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER
OFFSHORE INTO THE ATLANTIC WITH ANOTHER WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THERE WILL BE ABUNDANT CLOUDS AND WITH
THE PRESSURE PATTERN...EASTERLY FLOW WILL BE SET IN PLACE THROUGH
THE DAY. ANOTHER COOL DAY IS EXPECTED. USED THE MET GUIDANCE AS
THAT GUIDANCE PERFORMED PRETTY WELL YESTERDAY COMPARED TO OBSERVED
TEMPERATURES. RAIN CHANCES ARE LOW TO BEGIN THE DAY BUT INCREASE
TOWARDS THE END OF THE DAY AS THAT LEFT FRONT QUAD OF THE UPPER
LEVEL JET MOVES CLOSER...ALLOWING FOR BETTER LIFT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
FOR TONIGHT...HIGHEST CHANCES OF RAIN ARE THIS EVENING WITH THE
LEFT FRONT QUAD OF THE UPPER JET RIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
SHIFTS SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT WITH A LIKEWISE DECREASE OF POPS FOR
RAIN AS THE LOW SHIFTS FARTHER OUT TO SEA AT THE SURFACE. ABUNDANT
CLOUDS AND ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUE SO USED A RELATIVELY WARMER BLEND
OF GUIDANCE FOR LOWS...1/3 NAM12 SFC TEMPERATURES AND 2/3 MAV
GUIDANCE.

FOR SATURDAY...A BRIEF REVISIT OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH RIDGING
ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR RELATIVELY WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY. THE SOURCE REGION OF THE HIGH IS IN
CENTRAL CANADA. HIGHEST TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS THE INTERIOR
WITH A SE FLOW IN PLACE IN THE AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL KEEP COASTAL
LOCATIONS RELATIVELY COOLER WITH MORE MARINE INFLUENCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
00Z MODEL SUITE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST PERIODS OF RAINY WX SUN AND
MON. QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT SETS UP S OF THE REGION SAT NGT THRU THE
REST OF THE WEEKEND. DEEP TROF ACROSS THE WRN CONUS SHOULD TAP THE
SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC AND FUNNEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. MOISTURE
STREAM INTO MEXICO ALREADY APPARENT ON WATER VAPOR. RESIDUAL
CONVECTION PROGGED TO SUPPLY EMBEDDED SHRTWV ENERGY...WITH RAIN CHCS
THEREFORE BREAKING OUT LATE SAT NGT AND PARTICULARLY ON SUN. LOW
PRES DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT THEN LIKELY IMPACTS THE AREA DURING
THE SUN NGT-MON TIME PERIOD. THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD
AMONGST THE GFS AND ECMWF WRT THE EXACT LATITUDE OF THE LOW PRES
SYS...AND AS A RESULT THE AMT OF RAIN WHICH CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE CWA. TOO MANY MOVING PARTS TO ADEQUATELY PINPOINT TIMING ON
SUN...SO HAVE KEPT POPS AT LIKELY. WRT THE LOW...SYS IS TOO FAR OUT
TO RAISE POPS ABV HIGH CHC ATTM. IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW...CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT ON TUE. THIS COULD SPARK A FEW SHWRS OR SPRINKLES...AS
LAPSE RATES PER THE GFS AROUND 9C/KM UP TO H85. H5 LOW DROPS TO
JAMES BAY TUE NGT...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF IN AGREEMENT ON
THIS...AND EVENTUALLY CARVES OUT A BROAD UPR TROF ACROSS THE NERN
CONUS WED AND THU. THIS SUPPORTS CHCS FOR AT LEAST SHWRS...WITH THE
SUGGESTION OF A POTENTIAL SPINUP OFFSHORE WHICH WOULD BRING A CHC
FOR MORE ORGANIZED RAINFALL IN THE WED-THU PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND A
STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

VFR. ISO/SCT SHOWERS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE MORNING. LIGHT
RAIN THEN LIKELY REDEVELOPS LATE THIS AFTN INTO EVE ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS FROM W TO E.

E WINDS AROUND 10 KT INTO THIS EVENING.

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.SAT...VFR.
.SUN THROUGH MON...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN RAIN.
.TUE...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
OCEAN SEAS HAVE TRENDED LOWER THAN FORECAST SO FAR. THEREFORE
ADJUSTED THIS FORECAST TO BRING IN HIGHER OCEAN SEAS LATER THIS
MORNING CONSISTENT WITH THE SWAN MODEL. ESSENTIALLY THE WINDOW FOR
THE OCEAN SCA SEAS HAS BEEN SHIFTED LATER WITH AN EXTENSION MORE IN
TIME ON THE BACK END FOR TONIGHT. SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS GOES FROM
10AM THIS MORNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT. IT COULD LINGER LONGER BASED ON
THE SWAN MODEL BUT DID NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE FOR TOO LONG OF AN
EXTENSION IN TIME. OVERALL THIS WILL BE A MARGINAL EVENT AS OTHER
WATERS AND ALL WINDS WILL BE WELL BELOW SCA CRITERIA TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS SAT NGT...THEN NELY WINDS INCREASE ON
SUN WITH SCA COND POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN. LINGERING SEAS
AROUND 5 FT ON THE OCEAN MON...THEN WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS TUE.
POTENTIAL FOR 5 FT SEAS ON THE OCEAN AGAIN WED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN A
QUARTER OF AN INCH.

AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE LATE SAT NGT THRU SUN. ADDITIONAL
RAIN IS POSSIBLE ON MON...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK...SPEED AND
INTENSITY OF PASSING LOW PRES.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT
     TONIGHT FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/JM
NEAR TERM...JMC/JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JMC/JM
HYDROLOGY...JMC/JM




000
FXUS61 KBOX 291122
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
722 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL CANADA TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WILL YIELD MILD AFTERNOONS AND CHILLY NIGHTS THROUGH SATURDAY. A
RETURN TO UNSETTLED AND COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. A DRYING TREND FOLLOWS
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
720 AM UPDATE...
A FEW SHOWERS/SPRINKLES OVER THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH COAST AND
ISLANDS WILL BE EXITING DURING THE NEXT HOUR. CONSIDERABLE
MOISTURE AROUND 850 MB WILL RESULT IN MOCLDY SKIES IN THE
INTERIOR...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD GIVE WAY TO PTSUNNY SKIES IN THE
COASTAL PLAIN WHERE MOISTURE IS NOT AS ROBUST. HIGHS WILL REACH
THE THE MID TO UPPER 50S...WITH LOWER 60S CT VALLEY. LIGHT
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL LEAD TO SEA BREEZES THIS AFTERNOON WHICH
WILL KEEP TEMPS CLOSER TO 50 DEGREES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COASTLINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...A SHORTWAVE WILL PASS SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS
EVENING...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY TO THE
SOUTH COAST.  CONTINUED CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
RADIATING OVERNIGHT.  LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO
AROUND 40.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  EXPECT
CLEARING SKIES THROUGH THE DAY...ALLOWING FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES.  HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW TO
MID 60S AWAY FROM THE COASTS.  SEA BREEZES ARE EXPECTED ONCE
AGAIN...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSEASONABLY COOL WITH PERIODS OF RAIN SUN INTO MON
* DRYING TREND LIKELY TUE AND POSSIBLY WED ALONG WITH MILDER TEMPS
* MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE THU

OVERVIEW...
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN DEVELOPING AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND W CANADA WITH DOWNSTREAM TROF OVER THE GT
LAKES. EXPECT A PERIOD OF COOL AND WET CONDITIONS SUN INTO MON AS
LOW PRES TRACKS S OF NEW ENG. A BRIEF DRYING TREND AND MILDER TEMPS
WILL FOLLOW TUE AND POSSIBLY INTO WED IN BETWEEN SHORTWAVES...THEN
MID LEVEL TROF AMPLIFIES OVER THE LAKES WITH ANOTHER PERIOD OF
COOLER AND WET WEATHER POSSIBLE BY THU.

SAT NIGHT...
HIGH PRES ACROSS E NEW ENG WILL SLOWLY MOVE E AS OVERRUNNING
MOISTURE APPROACHES FROM THE SW. GFS IS FASTEST MOVING RAIN INTO SNE
LATER SAT NIGHT...WHILE ECMWF/NAM/GGEM/UKMET KEEP RAIN TO THE WEST.
FOLLOWED CONSENSUS OF DRY FORECAST WITH JUST A LOW PROB OF LIGHT
RAIN REACHING W NEW ENG LATE SAT NIGHT.

SUN INTO MON...
MOST OF THIS PERIOD LIKELY TO BE COOL AND WET. INITIAL SHOT OF RAIN
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION DURING SUN FROM WEST TO EASY AS OVERRUNNING
OF SFC BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH LEADS TO DEEP MOISTURE AND MODEST LIFT
OVERSPREADING THE REGION. RAIN MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL SUN AFTERNOON
ACROSS E NEW ENG. LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS MOSTLY IN
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S SUNDAY. A SECOND PERIOD OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED SUN NIGHT INTO MON AS LOW PRES TRACKS S OF NEW
ENG...ALTHOUGH GFS LIKELY OVERDONE WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. ANOTHER
CHILLY DAY MON WITH TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL.

TUE INTO WED...
WEAK HIGH PRES SHOULD BRING MAINLY DRY WEATHER TUE WITH TEMPS
REBOUNDING TO NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST INTO WED AS MID LEVEL TROF
AXIS STILL BACK ACROSS GT LAKES.

THU...
LOOKS LIKE UNSETTLED WEATHER AND COOLER TEMPS WILL RETURN AS MID
LEVEL TROF AMPLIFIES ACROSS NE WITH POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER COASTAL
WAVE TO THE S OF NEW ENG WITH EASTERLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

PATCHY MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING IN THE INTERIOR...OTHERWISE MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. SEA BREEZES ARE LIKELY
TO DEVELOP ALONG BOTH THE EAST AND SOUTH COASTS TODAY AND
SATURDAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SAT NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR CIGS. LIGHT RAIN MAY REACH
W NEW ENG TOWARD DAYBREAK.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS WITH DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS TO MVFR AND LOCALIZED IFR POSSIBLE IN PERIODS OF RAIN.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. DRYING TREND WITH VFR AND LIGHT
WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
WATERS.  THERE IS A LOW RISK OF A FEW BRIEF RAIN SHOWERS ON THE
SOUTHERN WATERS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SAT NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS.

SUNDAY INTO MON...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. INCREASING EASTERLY WINDS SUN
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...THEN SHIFTING TO NORTH DURING MON AS LOW PRES
MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. A PERIOD OF EASTERLY SCA GUSTS
POSSIBLE SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND AGAIN DURING MON AS WINDS
SHIFT TO NORTH. ROUGH SEAS GIVEN THE LONG ENE FETCH. VSBYS REDUCED
AT TIMES IN RAIN AND PATCHY FOG.

TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LIGHT WINDS BUT LEFTOVER SCA SEAS LIKELY
FOR EASTERN WATERS FROM ENE SWELLS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...KJC/RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG




000
FXUS61 KOKX 291052
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
652 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK LOW MOVES FARTHER OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WITH ANOTHER WEAK LOW APPROACHING FROM THE WEST THROUGH
TONIGHT. FOR SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY RETURNS AS IT
BUILDS IN FROM CENTRAL CANADA. COOL AND UNSETTLED SUN AND MON AS
A STATIONARY FRONT SETS UP S OF THE REGION. WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS
IN ON TUE...FOLLOWED BY A POTENTIAL FRONTAL SYS FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MINOR UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS THIS MRNG. OTHERWISE...THE FCST
WAS ON TRACK WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE. ANOTHER LEFT FRONT QUAD
OF A JET STREAK APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TODAY ASSOCIATED WITH A
SHORTWAVE ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER
OFFSHORE INTO THE ATLANTIC WITH ANOTHER WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THERE WILL BE ABUNDANT CLOUDS AND WITH
THE PRESSURE PATTERN...EASTERLY FLOW WILL BE SET IN PLACE THROUGH
THE DAY. ANOTHER COOL DAY IS EXPECTED. USED THE MET GUIDANCE AS
THAT GUIDANCE PERFORMED PRETTY WELL YESTERDAY COMPARED TO OBSERVED
TEMPERATURES. RAIN CHANCES ARE LOW TO BEGIN THE DAY BUT INCREASE
TOWARDS THE END OF THE DAY AS THAT LEFT FRONT QUAD OF THE UPPER
LEVEL JET MOVES CLOSER...ALLOWING FOR BETTER LIFT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
FOR TONIGHT...HIGHEST CHANCES OF RAIN ARE THIS EVENING WITH THE
LEFT FRONT QUAD OF THE UPPER JET RIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
SHIFTS SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT WITH A LIKEWISE DECREASE OF POPS FOR
RAIN AS THE LOW SHIFTS FARTHER OUT TO SEA AT THE SURFACE. ABUNDANT
CLOUDS AND ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUE SO USED A RELATIVELY WARMER BLEND
OF GUIDANCE FOR LOWS...1/3 NAM12 SFC TEMPERATURES AND 2/3 MAV
GUIDANCE.

FOR SATURDAY...A BRIEF REVISIT OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH RIDGING
ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR RELATIVELY WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY. THE SOURCE REGION OF THE HIGH IS IN
CENTRAL CANADA. HIGHEST TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS THE INTERIOR
WITH A SE FLOW IN PLACE IN THE AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL KEEP COASTAL
LOCATIONS RELATIVELY COOLER WITH MORE MARINE INFLUENCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
00Z MODEL SUITE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST PERIODS OF RAINY WX SUN AND
MON. QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT SETS UP S OF THE REGION SAT NGT THRU THE
REST OF THE WEEKEND. DEEP TROF ACROSS THE WRN CONUS SHOULD TAP THE
SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC AND FUNNEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. MOISTURE
STREAM INTO MEXICO ALREADY APPARENT ON WATER VAPOR. RESIDUAL
CONVECTION PROGGED TO SUPPLY EMBEDDED SHRTWV ENERGY...WITH RAIN CHCS
THEREFORE BREAKING OUT LATE SAT NGT AND PARTICULARLY ON SUN. LOW
PRES DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT THEN LIKELY IMPACTS THE AREA DURING
THE SUN NGT-MON TIME PERIOD. THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD
AMONGST THE GFS AND ECMWF WRT THE EXACT LATITUDE OF THE LOW PRES
SYS...AND AS A RESULT THE AMT OF RAIN WHICH CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE CWA. TOO MANY MOVING PARTS TO ADEQUATELY PINPOINT TIMING ON
SUN...SO HAVE KEPT POPS AT LIKELY. WRT THE LOW...SYS IS TOO FAR OUT
TO RAISE POPS ABV HIGH CHC ATTM. IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW...CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT ON TUE. THIS COULD SPARK A FEW SHWRS OR SPRINKLES...AS
LAPSE RATES PER THE GFS AROUND 9C/KM UP TO H85. H5 LOW DROPS TO
JAMES BAY TUE NGT...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF IN AGREEMENT ON
THIS...AND EVENTUALLY CARVES OUT A BROAD UPR TROF ACROSS THE NERN
CONUS WED AND THU. THIS SUPPORTS CHCS FOR AT LEAST SHWRS...WITH THE
SUGGESTION OF A POTENTIAL SPINUP OFFSHORE WHICH WOULD BRING A CHC
FOR MORE ORGANIZED RAINFALL IN THE WED-THU PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND A
STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

VFR. SCT SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING MAINLY NORTH OF THE CITY. LIGHT
RAIN LIKELY REDEVELOPS LATE THIS AFTN INTO EVE ACROSS ALL TERMINALS
FROM W TO E.

E WINDS AROUND 10 KT INTO THIS EVENING.

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRI NIGHT...VFR.
.SAT...VFR.
.SUN THROUGH MON...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN RAIN.
.TUE...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
OCEAN SEAS HAVE TRENDED LOWER THAN FORECAST SO FAR. THEREFORE
ADJUSTED THIS FORECAST TO BRING IN HIGHER OCEAN SEAS LATER THIS
MORNING CONSISTENT WITH THE SWAN MODEL. ESSENTIALLY THE WINDOW FOR
THE OCEAN SCA SEAS HAS BEEN SHIFTED LATER WITH AN EXTENSION MORE IN
TIME ON THE BACK END FOR TONIGHT. SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS GOES FROM
10AM THIS MORNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT. IT COULD LINGER LONGER BASED ON
THE SWAN MODEL BUT DID NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE FOR TOO LONG OF AN
EXTENSION IN TIME. OVERALL THIS WILL BE A MARGINAL EVENT AS OTHER
WATERS AND ALL WINDS WILL BE WELL BELOW SCA CRITERIA TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS SAT NGT...THEN NELY WINDS INCREASE ON
SUN WITH SCA COND POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN. LINGERING SEAS
AROUND 5 FT ON THE OCEAN MON...THEN WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS TUE.
POTENTIAL FOR 5 FT SEAS ON THE OCEAN AGAIN WED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN A
QUARTER OF AN INCH.

AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE LATE SAT NGT THRU SUN. ADDITIONAL
RAIN IS POSSIBLE ON MON...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK...SPEED AND
INTENSITY OF PASSING LOW PRES.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 10 AM THIS
     MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/JM
NEAR TERM...JMC/JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JMC/JM
HYDROLOGY...JMC/JM




000
FXUS61 KALY 291050
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
650 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER TODAY WITH A PERIOD OF SHOWERS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT THIS EVENING. APRIL WILL END WITH A DRY
DAY ALONG WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES SATURDAY. HOWEVER...MAY
WILL START OUT COOL AND WET WITH A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS
THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST MAINLY TO CLOUD COVER
AND TEMPERATURES FOR THIS MORNING.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION IS AN THE
APPROACH. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BY LATE IN
THE DAY FOR THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA MAINLY SOUTH
OF INTERSTATES 88 AND 90 BY LATE IN THE DAY.

CLOUD COVER WILL BE LEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOST PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHICH WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCED OF CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL TODAY...MORE SO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUDS. EXPECTING
AFTERNOON HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S WITH SOME 40S ACROSS THE HIGHEST
TERRAIN ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS.

LIGHT NORTHEAST-EAST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE LAST DAY OF APRIL...SATURDAY...WILL BE DRY WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES AS THE REGION IS INBETWEEN SHORT WAVES AND SOME
HIGHER PRESSURE NOSES SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA. HIGHS WILL MAINLY
RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

MAY WILL START OUT COOL AND WET. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE ON
THE APPROACH FROM THE PLAINS AS MORE SHORT WAVE ENERGY ALSO HEADS
OUR WAY. THESE FEATURES WILL HELP ESTABLISH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE REGION AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE GUIDANCE HAS
THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENING AS IT PASSES TO OUR SOUTH OVER THE
DELMARVA REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. LOOKING AT A WIDESPREAD OVERRUNNING
RAINFALL DEVELOPING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH QPF AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ANTICIPATED. THIS
RAINFALL WILL BE BENEFICIAL DUE TO DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS FOR
THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL WITH THE RAIN
AND CLOUDS WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER/MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST OPENS WET AND UNSETTLED FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF
MAY WITH A MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH IN CONTROL OVER THE ERN CONUS.

MONDAY OPENS WITH LOW PRESSURE PASSING SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND.
A PERIOD OF STRATIFORM RAINFALL IS LIKELY TO TAPER TO SCT SHOWERS BY
THE AFTERNOON.  LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE E/NE TOWARDS NOVA
SCOTIA BY NIGHTFALL.  SOME MID AND UPPER DEFORMATION ZONE SHOWERS
WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING.  HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE ON THE COOL
SIDE...AND ABOUT 10 DEGS BELOW NORMAL...WITH GENERALLY MID AND U50S
IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND M40S TO L50S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.
LOWS MON NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID AND U30S NORTH AND WEST OF
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT TO U30S TO L40S FROM THE TRI CITIES SOUTH AND
EAST.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...MOST OF THIS TIME FRAME SHOULD BE DRY BASED ON THE
ECMWF/GFS/GEFS/WPC GUIDANCE WITH A BROAD SFC ANTICYCLONE RIDGING IN
CENTERED OVER THE PLAINS.  SOME SPRINKLES OR AN ISOLD SHOWER IS
POSSIBLE LATE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE ERN GREAT LAKES
AND THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY.  HIGHS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH
H850 TEMPS RISING BACK TO +2C TO +4C OVER THE REGION...AND MAX TEMPS
IN THE LOWER TO M60S OVER THE VALLEYS...AND M50S TO L60S OVER THE
HILLS AND MTNS.  INCREASING CLOUDS WITH THE THREAT OF AN ISOLD
SHOWER IS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S WITH
SOME U30S OVER THE SRN DACKS AND SRN GREENS.

WED-THU...THE FORECAST BECOMES A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN BASED ON THE
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE ON THE EVOLUTION OF AN H500 UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. THE GFS HAS A FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH A SHORT-WAVE MOVING
THROUGH WED FOR A CHC OF SHOWERS. THE ECMWF AND SEVERAL ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS HAVE A DIGGING H500 TROUGH WITH A SFC WAVE MOVING ALONG THE
EAST COAST BRINGING SCT SHOWERS LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU.  WED WOULD
ACTUALLY BE DRIER IN BETWEEN SOME NRN AND SRN STREAM ENERGY.  TEMPS
ON BOTH DAYS SHOULD BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE WARMER
OF THE TWO DAYS WED...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND U60 OVER THE
VALLEYS...AND U50S TO L60S OVER THE MTNS...AND M50S TO M60S OVER THE
REGION ON THU.  SCT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY
ON WED...AND EXPANDING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FCST AREA WED NIGHT INTO
THU.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE IN FROM S/SE QUEBEC THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS PASS TO
THE SOUTH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...AND MID ATLANTIC REGION.

VFR CONDITION ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 18 HRS ENDING 06Z/SAT FOR
KGFL...KPSF...KALB...AND KPOU.  MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL
THIS MORNING...BUT SOME LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF KALB WHERE CIGS MAY LOWER TO 5-6 KFT AGL NEAR KPOU BTWN 14Z-
18Z.  THESE LOWER CIGS WILL EXPAND NORTHWARD TO KALB-KPSF IN THE
EARLY AFTERNOON WITH 4-6 KFT AGL CIGS.  EXPECT MID OR HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS TO PREVAIL AT KGFL INTO THE AFTERNOON.  SOME LIGHT RAIN OR
RAIN SHOWERS MAY REACH LOCATIONS SOUTH OF KALB-KPSF IN THE EARLY
EVENING...AND VCSH GROUPS WERE USED SHORTLY BEFORE OR JUST AFTER
00Z/SAT.  THE SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THE LONGEST AT KPOU/KPSF...AND
SOME HIGH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL LIKELY LINGER AT KPOU.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE N TO NE AT 4-8 KTS THIS MORNING...AND
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT 5 KTS PRIOR TO NOONTIME. EXPECT E
TO S/SE WINDS OF LESS 7 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON...BECOMING LIGHT TO
CALM AFTER 00Z/SAT.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY WITH A PERIOD OF
SHOWERS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN CATSKILLS...MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT THIS EVENING. APRIL
WILL END WITH A DRY DAY ALONG WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...MAY WILL START OUT COOL AND WET WITH A
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 40S THIS
AFTERNOON. MINIMUMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 30S SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH VALUES IN THE 40S ACROSS THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS...WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...LESS THAN 10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

SOME LIGHT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FROM
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH QPF AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH
ANTICIPATED. THIS RAINFALL WILL BE BENEFICIAL DUE TO DRY ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS FOR THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED LATER IN THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 291050
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
650 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER TODAY WITH A PERIOD OF SHOWERS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT THIS EVENING. APRIL WILL END WITH A DRY
DAY ALONG WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES SATURDAY. HOWEVER...MAY
WILL START OUT COOL AND WET WITH A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS
THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST MAINLY TO CLOUD COVER
AND TEMPERATURES FOR THIS MORNING.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION IS AN THE
APPROACH. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BY LATE IN
THE DAY FOR THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA MAINLY SOUTH
OF INTERSTATES 88 AND 90 BY LATE IN THE DAY.

CLOUD COVER WILL BE LEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOST PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHICH WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCED OF CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL TODAY...MORE SO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUDS. EXPECTING
AFTERNOON HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S WITH SOME 40S ACROSS THE HIGHEST
TERRAIN ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS.

LIGHT NORTHEAST-EAST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE LAST DAY OF APRIL...SATURDAY...WILL BE DRY WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES AS THE REGION IS INBETWEEN SHORT WAVES AND SOME
HIGHER PRESSURE NOSES SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA. HIGHS WILL MAINLY
RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

MAY WILL START OUT COOL AND WET. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE ON
THE APPROACH FROM THE PLAINS AS MORE SHORT WAVE ENERGY ALSO HEADS
OUR WAY. THESE FEATURES WILL HELP ESTABLISH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE REGION AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE GUIDANCE HAS
THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENING AS IT PASSES TO OUR SOUTH OVER THE
DELMARVA REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. LOOKING AT A WIDESPREAD OVERRUNNING
RAINFALL DEVELOPING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH QPF AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ANTICIPATED. THIS
RAINFALL WILL BE BENEFICIAL DUE TO DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS FOR
THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL WITH THE RAIN
AND CLOUDS WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER/MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST OPENS WET AND UNSETTLED FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF
MAY WITH A MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH IN CONTROL OVER THE ERN CONUS.

MONDAY OPENS WITH LOW PRESSURE PASSING SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND.
A PERIOD OF STRATIFORM RAINFALL IS LIKELY TO TAPER TO SCT SHOWERS BY
THE AFTERNOON.  LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE E/NE TOWARDS NOVA
SCOTIA BY NIGHTFALL.  SOME MID AND UPPER DEFORMATION ZONE SHOWERS
WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING.  HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE ON THE COOL
SIDE...AND ABOUT 10 DEGS BELOW NORMAL...WITH GENERALLY MID AND U50S
IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND M40S TO L50S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.
LOWS MON NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID AND U30S NORTH AND WEST OF
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT TO U30S TO L40S FROM THE TRI CITIES SOUTH AND
EAST.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...MOST OF THIS TIME FRAME SHOULD BE DRY BASED ON THE
ECMWF/GFS/GEFS/WPC GUIDANCE WITH A BROAD SFC ANTICYCLONE RIDGING IN
CENTERED OVER THE PLAINS.  SOME SPRINKLES OR AN ISOLD SHOWER IS
POSSIBLE LATE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE ERN GREAT LAKES
AND THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY.  HIGHS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH
H850 TEMPS RISING BACK TO +2C TO +4C OVER THE REGION...AND MAX TEMPS
IN THE LOWER TO M60S OVER THE VALLEYS...AND M50S TO L60S OVER THE
HILLS AND MTNS.  INCREASING CLOUDS WITH THE THREAT OF AN ISOLD
SHOWER IS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S WITH
SOME U30S OVER THE SRN DACKS AND SRN GREENS.

WED-THU...THE FORECAST BECOMES A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN BASED ON THE
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE ON THE EVOLUTION OF AN H500 UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. THE GFS HAS A FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH A SHORT-WAVE MOVING
THROUGH WED FOR A CHC OF SHOWERS. THE ECMWF AND SEVERAL ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS HAVE A DIGGING H500 TROUGH WITH A SFC WAVE MOVING ALONG THE
EAST COAST BRINGING SCT SHOWERS LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU.  WED WOULD
ACTUALLY BE DRIER IN BETWEEN SOME NRN AND SRN STREAM ENERGY.  TEMPS
ON BOTH DAYS SHOULD BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE WARMER
OF THE TWO DAYS WED...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND U60 OVER THE
VALLEYS...AND U50S TO L60S OVER THE MTNS...AND M50S TO M60S OVER THE
REGION ON THU.  SCT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY
ON WED...AND EXPANDING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FCST AREA WED NIGHT INTO
THU.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE IN FROM S/SE QUEBEC THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS PASS TO
THE SOUTH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...AND MID ATLANTIC REGION.

VFR CONDITION ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 18 HRS ENDING 06Z/SAT FOR
KGFL...KPSF...KALB...AND KPOU.  MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL
THIS MORNING...BUT SOME LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF KALB WHERE CIGS MAY LOWER TO 5-6 KFT AGL NEAR KPOU BTWN 14Z-
18Z.  THESE LOWER CIGS WILL EXPAND NORTHWARD TO KALB-KPSF IN THE
EARLY AFTERNOON WITH 4-6 KFT AGL CIGS.  EXPECT MID OR HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS TO PREVAIL AT KGFL INTO THE AFTERNOON.  SOME LIGHT RAIN OR
RAIN SHOWERS MAY REACH LOCATIONS SOUTH OF KALB-KPSF IN THE EARLY
EVENING...AND VCSH GROUPS WERE USED SHORTLY BEFORE OR JUST AFTER
00Z/SAT.  THE SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THE LONGEST AT KPOU/KPSF...AND
SOME HIGH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL LIKELY LINGER AT KPOU.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE N TO NE AT 4-8 KTS THIS MORNING...AND
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT 5 KTS PRIOR TO NOONTIME. EXPECT E
TO S/SE WINDS OF LESS 7 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON...BECOMING LIGHT TO
CALM AFTER 00Z/SAT.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY WITH A PERIOD OF
SHOWERS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN CATSKILLS...MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT THIS EVENING. APRIL
WILL END WITH A DRY DAY ALONG WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...MAY WILL START OUT COOL AND WET WITH A
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 40S THIS
AFTERNOON. MINIMUMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 30S SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH VALUES IN THE 40S ACROSS THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS...WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...LESS THAN 10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

SOME LIGHT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FROM
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH QPF AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH
ANTICIPATED. THIS RAINFALL WILL BE BENEFICIAL DUE TO DRY ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS FOR THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED LATER IN THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 290905
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
505 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER TODAY WITH A PERIOD OF SHOWERS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT THIS EVENING. APRIL WILL END WITH A DRY
DAY ALONG WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES SATURDAY. HOWEVER...MAY
WILL START OUT COOL AND WET WITH A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS
THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR EAST EARLY THIS MORNING
BRINGING AN END TO THE LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES
OCCURRING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MOST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
JUST NORTH OF STATE ROUTE 17 AND INTERSTATE 84.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
APPROACH THE AREA TODAY RETURNING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TO THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATES
88 AND 90 BY LATE IN THE DAY.

OVERALL SKIES WILL MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY...THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WHICH WILL
BE UNDER THE INFLUENCED OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL TODAY...MORE SO ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL BE MORE
EXTENSIVE. EXPECTING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S WITH SOME 40S ACROSS
THE HIGHEST TERRAIN ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS.

LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE LAST DAY OF APRIL...SATURDAY...WILL BE DRY WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES AS THE REGION IS INBETWEEN SHORT WAVES AND SOME
HIGHER PRESSURE NOSES SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA. HIGHS WILL MAINLY
RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

MAY WILL START OUT COOL AND WET. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE ON
THE APPROACH FROM THE PLAINS AS MORE SHORT WAVE ENERGY ALSO HEADS
OUR WAY. THESE FEATURES WILL HELP ESTABLISH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE REGION AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE GUIDANCE HAS
THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENING AS IT PASSES TO OUR SOUTH OVER THE
DELMARVA REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. LOOKING AT A WIDESPREAD OVERRUNNING
RAINFALL DEVELOPING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH QPF AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ANTICIPATED. THIS
RAINFALL WILL BE BENEFICIAL DUE TO DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS FOR
THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL WITH THE RAIN
AND CLOUDS WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER/MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST OPENS WET AND UNSETTLED FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF
MAY WITH A MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH IN CONTROL OVER THE ERN CONUS.

MONDAY OPENS WITH LOW PRESSURE PASSING SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND.
A PERIOD OF STRATIFORM RAINFALL IS LIKELY TO TAPER TO SCT SHOWERS BY
THE AFTERNOON.  LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE E/NE TOWARDS NOVA
SCOTIA BY NIGHTFALL.  SOME MID AND UPPER DEFORMATION ZONE SHOWERS
WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING.  HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE ON THE COOL
SIDE...AND ABOUT 10 DEGS BELOW NORMAL...WITH GENERALLY MID AND U50S
IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND M40S TO L50S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.
LOWS MON NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID AND U30S NORTH AND WEST OF
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT TO U30S TO L40S FROM THE TRI CITIES SOUTH AND
EAST.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...MOST OF THIS TIME FRAME SHOULD BE DRY BASED ON THE
ECMWF/GFS/GEFS/WPC GUIDANCE WITH A BROAD SFC ANTICYCLONE RIDGING IN
CENTERED OVER THE PLAINS.  SOME SPRINKLES OR AN ISOLD SHOWER IS
POSSIBLE LATE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE ERN GREAT LAKES
AND THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY.  HIGHS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH
H850 TEMPS RISING BACK TO +2C TO +4C OVER THE REGION...AND MAX TEMPS
IN THE LOWER TO M60S OVER THE VALLEYS...AND M50S TO L60S OVER THE
HILLS AND MTNS.  INCREASING CLOUDS WITH THE THREAT OF AN ISOLD
SHOWER IS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S WITH
SOME U30S OVER THE SRN DACKS AND SRN GREENS.

WED-THU...THE FORECAST BECOMES A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN BASED ON THE
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE ON THE EVOLUTION OF AN H500 UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. THE GFS HAS A FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH A SHORT-WAVE MOVING
THROUGH WED FOR A CHC OF SHOWERS. THE ECMWF AND SEVERAL ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS HAVE A DIGGING H500 TROUGH WITH A SFC WAVE MOVING ALONG THE
EAST COAST BRINGING SCT SHOWERS LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU.  WED WOULD
ACTUALLY BE DRIER IN BETWEEN SOME NRN AND SRN STREAM ENERGY.  TEMPS
ON BOTH DAYS SHOULD BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE WARMER
OF THE TWO DAYS WED...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND U60 OVER THE
VALLEYS...AND U50S TO L60S OVER THE MTNS...AND M50S TO M60S OVER THE
REGION ON THU.  SCT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY
ON WED...AND EXPANDING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FCST AREA WED NIGHT INTO
THU.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE IN FROM QUEBEC THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON...AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS PASS TO THE SOUTH
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...AND MID ATLANTIC REGION.

VFR CONDITION ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HRS ENDING 06Z/SAT FOR
KGFL...KPSF...KALB...AND KPOU.  MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL
THIS MORNING...BUT SOME LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF KALB WHERE CIGS MAY LOWER TO 5-6 KFT AGL NEAR KPOU BTWN 09Z-
14Z.  THESE LOWER CIGS WILL EXPAND NORTHWARD TO KALB-KPSF IN THE
LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH 4-6 KFT AGL CIGS.  EXPECT MID
OR HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO PREVAIL AT KGFL INTO THE AFTERNOON.  SOME
LIGHT RAIN OR RAIN SHOWERS MAY REACH LOCATIONS SOUTH OF KALB-KPSF IN
THE EARLY EVENING...AND VCSH GROUPS WERE USED SHORTLY BEFORE OR
JUST AFTER 00Z/SAT.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE N TO NE AT 5-10 KTS THIS MORNING...AND
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT 5 KTS OR LESS BY 12Z. EXPECT E TO
S/SE WINDS OF LESS 7 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON...BECOMING LIGHT TO
CALM AFTER 00Z/SAT.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY WITH A PERIOD OF
SHOWERS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN CATSKILLS...MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT THIS EVENING. APRIL
WILL END WITH A DRY DAY ALONG WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...MAY WILL START OUT COOL AND WET WITH A
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 40S THIS
AFTERNOON. MINIMUMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 30S SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH VALUES IN THE 40S ACROSS THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS...WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...LESS THAN 10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

SOME LIGHT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FROM
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH QPF AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH
ANTICIPATED. THIS RAINFALL WILL BE BENEFICIAL DUE TO DRY ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS FOR THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED LATER IN THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA/JPV




000
FXUS61 KALY 290905
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
505 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER TODAY WITH A PERIOD OF SHOWERS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT THIS EVENING. APRIL WILL END WITH A DRY
DAY ALONG WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES SATURDAY. HOWEVER...MAY
WILL START OUT COOL AND WET WITH A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS
THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR EAST EARLY THIS MORNING
BRINGING AN END TO THE LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES
OCCURRING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MOST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
JUST NORTH OF STATE ROUTE 17 AND INTERSTATE 84.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
APPROACH THE AREA TODAY RETURNING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TO THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATES
88 AND 90 BY LATE IN THE DAY.

OVERALL SKIES WILL MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY...THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WHICH WILL
BE UNDER THE INFLUENCED OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL TODAY...MORE SO ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL BE MORE
EXTENSIVE. EXPECTING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S WITH SOME 40S ACROSS
THE HIGHEST TERRAIN ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS.

LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE LAST DAY OF APRIL...SATURDAY...WILL BE DRY WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES AS THE REGION IS INBETWEEN SHORT WAVES AND SOME
HIGHER PRESSURE NOSES SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA. HIGHS WILL MAINLY
RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

MAY WILL START OUT COOL AND WET. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE ON
THE APPROACH FROM THE PLAINS AS MORE SHORT WAVE ENERGY ALSO HEADS
OUR WAY. THESE FEATURES WILL HELP ESTABLISH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE REGION AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE GUIDANCE HAS
THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENING AS IT PASSES TO OUR SOUTH OVER THE
DELMARVA REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. LOOKING AT A WIDESPREAD OVERRUNNING
RAINFALL DEVELOPING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH QPF AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ANTICIPATED. THIS
RAINFALL WILL BE BENEFICIAL DUE TO DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS FOR
THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL WITH THE RAIN
AND CLOUDS WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER/MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST OPENS WET AND UNSETTLED FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF
MAY WITH A MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH IN CONTROL OVER THE ERN CONUS.

MONDAY OPENS WITH LOW PRESSURE PASSING SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND.
A PERIOD OF STRATIFORM RAINFALL IS LIKELY TO TAPER TO SCT SHOWERS BY
THE AFTERNOON.  LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE E/NE TOWARDS NOVA
SCOTIA BY NIGHTFALL.  SOME MID AND UPPER DEFORMATION ZONE SHOWERS
WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING.  HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE ON THE COOL
SIDE...AND ABOUT 10 DEGS BELOW NORMAL...WITH GENERALLY MID AND U50S
IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND M40S TO L50S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.
LOWS MON NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID AND U30S NORTH AND WEST OF
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT TO U30S TO L40S FROM THE TRI CITIES SOUTH AND
EAST.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...MOST OF THIS TIME FRAME SHOULD BE DRY BASED ON THE
ECMWF/GFS/GEFS/WPC GUIDANCE WITH A BROAD SFC ANTICYCLONE RIDGING IN
CENTERED OVER THE PLAINS.  SOME SPRINKLES OR AN ISOLD SHOWER IS
POSSIBLE LATE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE ERN GREAT LAKES
AND THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY.  HIGHS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH
H850 TEMPS RISING BACK TO +2C TO +4C OVER THE REGION...AND MAX TEMPS
IN THE LOWER TO M60S OVER THE VALLEYS...AND M50S TO L60S OVER THE
HILLS AND MTNS.  INCREASING CLOUDS WITH THE THREAT OF AN ISOLD
SHOWER IS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S WITH
SOME U30S OVER THE SRN DACKS AND SRN GREENS.

WED-THU...THE FORECAST BECOMES A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN BASED ON THE
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE ON THE EVOLUTION OF AN H500 UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. THE GFS HAS A FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH A SHORT-WAVE MOVING
THROUGH WED FOR A CHC OF SHOWERS. THE ECMWF AND SEVERAL ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS HAVE A DIGGING H500 TROUGH WITH A SFC WAVE MOVING ALONG THE
EAST COAST BRINGING SCT SHOWERS LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU.  WED WOULD
ACTUALLY BE DRIER IN BETWEEN SOME NRN AND SRN STREAM ENERGY.  TEMPS
ON BOTH DAYS SHOULD BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE WARMER
OF THE TWO DAYS WED...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND U60 OVER THE
VALLEYS...AND U50S TO L60S OVER THE MTNS...AND M50S TO M60S OVER THE
REGION ON THU.  SCT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY
ON WED...AND EXPANDING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FCST AREA WED NIGHT INTO
THU.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE IN FROM QUEBEC THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON...AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS PASS TO THE SOUTH
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...AND MID ATLANTIC REGION.

VFR CONDITION ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HRS ENDING 06Z/SAT FOR
KGFL...KPSF...KALB...AND KPOU.  MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL
THIS MORNING...BUT SOME LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF KALB WHERE CIGS MAY LOWER TO 5-6 KFT AGL NEAR KPOU BTWN 09Z-
14Z.  THESE LOWER CIGS WILL EXPAND NORTHWARD TO KALB-KPSF IN THE
LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH 4-6 KFT AGL CIGS.  EXPECT MID
OR HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO PREVAIL AT KGFL INTO THE AFTERNOON.  SOME
LIGHT RAIN OR RAIN SHOWERS MAY REACH LOCATIONS SOUTH OF KALB-KPSF IN
THE EARLY EVENING...AND VCSH GROUPS WERE USED SHORTLY BEFORE OR
JUST AFTER 00Z/SAT.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE N TO NE AT 5-10 KTS THIS MORNING...AND
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT 5 KTS OR LESS BY 12Z. EXPECT E TO
S/SE WINDS OF LESS 7 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON...BECOMING LIGHT TO
CALM AFTER 00Z/SAT.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY WITH A PERIOD OF
SHOWERS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN CATSKILLS...MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT THIS EVENING. APRIL
WILL END WITH A DRY DAY ALONG WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...MAY WILL START OUT COOL AND WET WITH A
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 40S THIS
AFTERNOON. MINIMUMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 30S SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH VALUES IN THE 40S ACROSS THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS...WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...LESS THAN 10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

SOME LIGHT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FROM
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH QPF AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH
ANTICIPATED. THIS RAINFALL WILL BE BENEFICIAL DUE TO DRY ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS FOR THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED LATER IN THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA/JPV




000
FXUS61 KALY 290852
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
452 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER TODAY WITH A PERIOD OF SHOWERS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT THIS EVENING. APRIL WILL END WITH A DRY
DAY ALONG WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES SATURDAY. HOWEVER...MAY
WILL START OUT COOL AND WET WITH A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS
THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR EAST EARLY THIS MORNING
BRINGING AN END TO THE LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES
OCCURRING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MOST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
JUST NORTH OF STATE ROUTE 17 AND INTERSTATE 84.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
APPROACH THE AREA TODAY RETURNING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TO THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATES
88 AND 90 BY LATE IN THE DAY.

OVERALL SKIES WILL MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY...THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WHICH WILL
BE UNDER THE INFLUENCED OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL TODAY...MORE SO ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL BE MORE
EXTENSIVE. EXPECTING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S WITH SOME 40S ACROSS
THE HIGHEST TERRAIN ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS.

LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
COMING SOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST OPENS WET AND UNSETTLED FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF
MAY WITH A MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH IN CONTROL OVER THE ERN CONUS.

MONDAY OPENS WITH LOW PRESSURE PASSING SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND.
A PERIOD OF STRATIFORM RAINFALL IS LIKELY TO TAPER TO SCT SHOWERS BY
THE AFTERNOON.  LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE E/NE TOWARDS NOVA
SCOTIA BY NIGHTFALL.  SOME MID AND UPPER DEFORMATION ZONE SHOWERS
WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING.  HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE ON THE COOL
SIDE...AND ABOUT 10 DEGS BELOW NORMAL...WITH GENERALLY MID AND U50S
IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND M40S TO L50S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.
LOWS MON NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID AND U30S NORTH AND WEST OF
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT TO U30S TO L40S FROM THE TRI CITIES SOUTH AND
EAST.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...MOST OF THIS TIME FRAME SHOULD BE DRY BASED ON THE
ECMWF/GFS/GEFS/WPC GUIDANCE WITH A BROAD SFC ANTICYCLONE RIDGING IN
CENTERED OVER THE PLAINS.  SOME SPRINKLES OR AN ISOLD SHOWER IS
POSSIBLE LATE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE ERN GREAT LAKES
AND THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY.  HIGHS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH
H850 TEMPS RISING BACK TO +2C TO +4C OVER THE REGION...AND MAX TEMPS
IN THE LOWER TO M60S OVER THE VALLEYS...AND M50S TO L60S OVER THE
HILLS AND MTNS.  INCREASING CLOUDS WITH THE THREAT OF AN ISOLD
SHOWER IS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S WITH
SOME U30S OVER THE SRN DACKS AND SRN GREENS.

WED-THU...THE FORECAST BECOMES A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN BASED ON THE
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE ON THE EVOLUTION OF AN H500 UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. THE GFS HAS A FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH A SHORT-WAVE MOVING
THROUGH WED FOR A CHC OF SHOWERS. THE ECMWF AND SEVERAL ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS HAVE A DIGGING H500 TROUGH WITH A SFC WAVE MOVING ALONG THE
EAST COAST BRINGING SCT SHOWERS LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU.  WED WOULD
ACTUALLY BE DRIER IN BETWEEN SOME NRN AND SRN STREAM ENERGY.  TEMPS
ON BOTH DAYS SHOULD BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE WARMER
OF THE TWO DAYS WED...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND U60 OVER THE
VALLEYS...AND U50S TO L60S OVER THE MTNS...AND M50S TO M60S OVER THE
REGION ON THU.  SCT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY
ON WED...AND EXPANDING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FCST AREA WED NIGHT INTO
THU.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE IN FROM QUEBEC THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON...AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS PASS TO THE SOUTH
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...AND MID ATLANTIC REGION.

VFR CONDITION ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HRS ENDING 06Z/SAT FOR
KGFL...KPSF...KALB...AND KPOU.  MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL
THIS MORNING...BUT SOME LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF KALB WHERE CIGS MAY LOWER TO 5-6 KFT AGL NEAR KPOU BTWN 09Z-
14Z.  THESE LOWER CIGS WILL EXPAND NORTHWARD TO KALB-KPSF IN THE
LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH 4-6 KFT AGL CIGS.  EXPECT MID
OR HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO PREVAIL AT KGFL INTO THE AFTERNOON.  SOME
LIGHT RAIN OR RAIN SHOWERS MAY REACH LOCATIONS SOUTH OF KALB-KPSF IN
THE EARLY EVENING...AND VCSH GROUPS WERE USED SHORTLY BEFORE OR
JUST AFTER 00Z/SAT.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE N TO NE AT 5-10 KTS THIS MORNING...AND
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT 5 KTS OR LESS BY 12Z. EXPECT E TO
S/SE WINDS OF LESS 7 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON...BECOMING LIGHT TO
CALM AFTER 00Z/SAT.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY WITH A PERIOD OF
SHOWERS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN CATSKILLS...MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT THIS EVENING. APRIL
WILL END WITH A DRY DAY ALONG WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...MAY WILL START OUT COOL AND WET WITH A
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 40S THIS
AFTERNOON. MINIMUMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 30S SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH VALUES IN THE 40S ACROSS THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS...WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...LESS THAN 10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

SOME LIGHT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FROM
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH QPF AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH
ANTICIPATED. THIS RAINFALL WILL BE BENEFICIAL DUE TO DRY ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS FOR THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED LATER IN THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA/JPV




000
FXUS61 KALY 290852
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
452 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER TODAY WITH A PERIOD OF SHOWERS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT THIS EVENING. APRIL WILL END WITH A DRY
DAY ALONG WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES SATURDAY. HOWEVER...MAY
WILL START OUT COOL AND WET WITH A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS
THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR EAST EARLY THIS MORNING
BRINGING AN END TO THE LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES
OCCURRING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MOST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
JUST NORTH OF STATE ROUTE 17 AND INTERSTATE 84.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
APPROACH THE AREA TODAY RETURNING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TO THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATES
88 AND 90 BY LATE IN THE DAY.

OVERALL SKIES WILL MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY...THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WHICH WILL
BE UNDER THE INFLUENCED OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL TODAY...MORE SO ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL BE MORE
EXTENSIVE. EXPECTING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S WITH SOME 40S ACROSS
THE HIGHEST TERRAIN ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS.

LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
COMING SOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST OPENS WET AND UNSETTLED FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF
MAY WITH A MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH IN CONTROL OVER THE ERN CONUS.

MONDAY OPENS WITH LOW PRESSURE PASSING SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND.
A PERIOD OF STRATIFORM RAINFALL IS LIKELY TO TAPER TO SCT SHOWERS BY
THE AFTERNOON.  LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE E/NE TOWARDS NOVA
SCOTIA BY NIGHTFALL.  SOME MID AND UPPER DEFORMATION ZONE SHOWERS
WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING.  HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE ON THE COOL
SIDE...AND ABOUT 10 DEGS BELOW NORMAL...WITH GENERALLY MID AND U50S
IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND M40S TO L50S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.
LOWS MON NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID AND U30S NORTH AND WEST OF
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT TO U30S TO L40S FROM THE TRI CITIES SOUTH AND
EAST.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...MOST OF THIS TIME FRAME SHOULD BE DRY BASED ON THE
ECMWF/GFS/GEFS/WPC GUIDANCE WITH A BROAD SFC ANTICYCLONE RIDGING IN
CENTERED OVER THE PLAINS.  SOME SPRINKLES OR AN ISOLD SHOWER IS
POSSIBLE LATE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE ERN GREAT LAKES
AND THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY.  HIGHS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH
H850 TEMPS RISING BACK TO +2C TO +4C OVER THE REGION...AND MAX TEMPS
IN THE LOWER TO M60S OVER THE VALLEYS...AND M50S TO L60S OVER THE
HILLS AND MTNS.  INCREASING CLOUDS WITH THE THREAT OF AN ISOLD
SHOWER IS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S WITH
SOME U30S OVER THE SRN DACKS AND SRN GREENS.

WED-THU...THE FORECAST BECOMES A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN BASED ON THE
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE ON THE EVOLUTION OF AN H500 UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. THE GFS HAS A FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH A SHORT-WAVE MOVING
THROUGH WED FOR A CHC OF SHOWERS. THE ECMWF AND SEVERAL ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS HAVE A DIGGING H500 TROUGH WITH A SFC WAVE MOVING ALONG THE
EAST COAST BRINGING SCT SHOWERS LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU.  WED WOULD
ACTUALLY BE DRIER IN BETWEEN SOME NRN AND SRN STREAM ENERGY.  TEMPS
ON BOTH DAYS SHOULD BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE WARMER
OF THE TWO DAYS WED...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND U60 OVER THE
VALLEYS...AND U50S TO L60S OVER THE MTNS...AND M50S TO M60S OVER THE
REGION ON THU.  SCT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY
ON WED...AND EXPANDING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FCST AREA WED NIGHT INTO
THU.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE IN FROM QUEBEC THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON...AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS PASS TO THE SOUTH
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...AND MID ATLANTIC REGION.

VFR CONDITION ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HRS ENDING 06Z/SAT FOR
KGFL...KPSF...KALB...AND KPOU.  MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL
THIS MORNING...BUT SOME LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF KALB WHERE CIGS MAY LOWER TO 5-6 KFT AGL NEAR KPOU BTWN 09Z-
14Z.  THESE LOWER CIGS WILL EXPAND NORTHWARD TO KALB-KPSF IN THE
LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH 4-6 KFT AGL CIGS.  EXPECT MID
OR HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO PREVAIL AT KGFL INTO THE AFTERNOON.  SOME
LIGHT RAIN OR RAIN SHOWERS MAY REACH LOCATIONS SOUTH OF KALB-KPSF IN
THE EARLY EVENING...AND VCSH GROUPS WERE USED SHORTLY BEFORE OR
JUST AFTER 00Z/SAT.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE N TO NE AT 5-10 KTS THIS MORNING...AND
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT 5 KTS OR LESS BY 12Z. EXPECT E TO
S/SE WINDS OF LESS 7 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON...BECOMING LIGHT TO
CALM AFTER 00Z/SAT.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY WITH A PERIOD OF
SHOWERS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN CATSKILLS...MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT THIS EVENING. APRIL
WILL END WITH A DRY DAY ALONG WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...MAY WILL START OUT COOL AND WET WITH A
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 40S THIS
AFTERNOON. MINIMUMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 30S SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH VALUES IN THE 40S ACROSS THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS...WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...LESS THAN 10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

SOME LIGHT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FROM
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH QPF AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH
ANTICIPATED. THIS RAINFALL WILL BE BENEFICIAL DUE TO DRY ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS FOR THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED LATER IN THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA/JPV




000
FXUS61 KOKX 290833
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
433 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK LOW MOVES FARTHER OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WITH ANOTHER WEAK LOW APPROACHING FROM THE WEST THROUGH
TONIGHT. FOR SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY RETURNS AS IT
BUILDS IN FROM CENTRAL CANADA. COOL AND UNSETTLED SUN AND MON AS
A STATIONARY FRONT SETS UP S OF THE REGION. WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS
IN ON TUE...FOLLOWED BY A POTENTIAL FRONTAL SYS FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ANOTHER LEFT FRONT QUAD OF A JET STREAK APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
TODAY ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK LOW
PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE INTO THE ATLANTIC WITH ANOTHER WEAK
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THERE WILL BE
ABUNDANT CLOUDS AND WITH THE PRESSURE PATTERN...EASTERLY FLOW WILL
BE SET IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY. ANOTHER COOL DAY IS EXPECTED. USED
THE MET GUIDANCE AS THAT GUIDANCE PERFORMED PRETTY WELL YESTERDAY
COMPARED TO OBSERVED TEMPERATURES. RAIN CHANCES ARE LOW TO BEGIN THE
DAY BUT INCREASE TOWARDS THE END OF THE DAY AS THAT LEFT FRONT QUAD
OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET MOVES CLOSER...ALLOWING FOR BETTER LIFT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
FOR TONIGHT...HIGHEST CHANCES OF RAIN ARE THIS EVENING WITH THE
LEFT FRONT QUAD OF THE UPPER JET RIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
SHIFTS SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT WITH A LIKEWISE DECREASE OF POPS FOR
RAIN AS THE LOW SHIFTS FARTHER OUT TO SEA AT THE SURFACE. ABUNDANT
CLOUDS AND ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUE SO USED A RELATIVELY WARMER BLEND
OF GUIDANCE FOR LOWS...1/3 NAM12 SFC TEMPERATURES AND 2/3 MAV
GUIDANCE.

FOR SATURDAY...A BRIEF REVISIT OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH RIDGING
ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR RELATIVELY WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY. THE SOURCE REGION OF THE HIGH IS IN
CENTRAL CANADA. HIGHEST TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS THE INTERIOR
WITH A SE FLOW IN PLACE IN THE AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL KEEP COASTAL
LOCATIONS RELATIVELY COOLER WITH MORE MARINE INFLUENCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
00Z MODEL SUITE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST PERIODS OF RAINY WX SUN AND
MON. QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT SETS UP S OF THE REGION SAT NGT THRU THE
REST OF THE WEEKEND. DEEP TROF ACROSS THE WRN CONUS SHOULD TAP THE
SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC AND FUNNEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. MOISTURE
STREAM INTO MEXICO ALREADY APPARENT ON WATER VAPOR. RESIDUAL
CONVECTION PROGGED TO SUPPLY EMBEDDED SHRTWV ENERGY...WITH RAIN CHCS
THEREFORE BREAKING OUT LATE SAT NGT AND PARTICULARLY ON SUN. LOW
PRES DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT THEN LIKELY IMPACTS THE AREA DURING
THE SUN NGT-MON TIME PERIOD. THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD
AMONGST THE GFS AND ECMWF WRT THE EXACT LATITUDE OF THE LOW PRES
SYS...AND AS A RESULT THE AMT OF RAIN WHICH CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE CWA. TOO MANY MOVING PARTS TO ADEQUATELY PINPOINT TIMING ON
SUN...SO HAVE KEPT POPS AT LIKELY. WRT THE LOW...SYS IS TOO FAR OUT
TO RAISE POPS ABV HIGH CHC ATTM. IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW...CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT ON TUE. THIS COULD SPARK A FEW SHWRS OR SPRINKLES...AS
LAPSE RATES PER THE GFS AROUND 9C/KM UP TO H85. H5 LOW DROPS TO
JAMES BAY TUE NGT...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF IN AGREEMENT ON
THIS...AND EVENTUALLY CARVES OUT A BROAD UPR TROF ACROSS THE NERN
CONUS WED AND THU. THIS SUPPORTS CHCS FOR AT LEAST SHWRS...WITH THE
SUGGESTION OF A POTENTIAL SPINUP OFFSHORE WHICH WOULD BRING A CHC
FOR MORE ORGANIZED RAINFALL IN THE WED-THU PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND A
STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

VFR. SCT SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING MAINLY NORTH OF THE CITY. LIGHT
RAIN LIKELY REDEVELOPS LATE THIS AFTN INTO EVE ACROSS ALL TERMINALS
FROM W TO E.

E WINDS AROUND 10 KT INTO THIS EVENING.

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRI NIGHT...VFR.
.SAT...VFR.
.SUN THROUGH MON...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN RAIN.
.TUE...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
OCEAN SEAS HAVE TRENDED LOWER THAN FORECAST SO FAR. THEREFORE
ADJUSTED THIS FORECAST TO BRING IN HIGHER OCEAN SEAS LATER THIS
MORNING CONSISTENT WITH THE SWAN MODEL. ESSENTIALLY THE WINDOW FOR
THE OCEAN SCA SEAS HAS BEEN SHIFTED LATER WITH AN EXTENSION MORE IN
TIME ON THE BACK END FOR TONIGHT. SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS GOES FROM
10AM THIS MORNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT. IT COULD LINGER LONGER BASED ON
THE SWAN MODEL BUT DID NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE FOR TOO LONG OF AN
EXTENSION IN TIME. OVERALL THIS WILL BE A MARGINAL EVENT AS OTHER
WATERS AND ALL WINDS WILL BE WELL BELOW SCA CRITERIA TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS SAT NGT...THEN NELY WINDS INCREASE ON
SUN WITH SCA COND POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN. LINGERING SEAS
AROUND 5 FT ON THE OCEAN MON...THEN WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS TUE.
POTENTIAL FOR 5 FT SEAS ON THE OCEAN AGAIN WED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN A
QUARTER OF AN INCH.

AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE LATE SAT NGT THRU SUN. ADDITIONAL
RAIN IS POSSIBLE ON MON...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK...SPEED AND
INTENSITY OF PASSING LOW PRES.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 10 AM THIS
     MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/JM
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JMC/JM
HYDROLOGY...JMC/JM




000
FXUS61 KOKX 290800
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
400 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK LOW MOVES FARTHER OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WITH ANOTHER WEAK LOW APPROACHING FROM THE WEST THROUGH
TONIGHT. FOR SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY RETURNS AS IT
BUILDS IN FROM CENTRAL CANADA. COOL AND UNSETTLED SUN AND MON AS
A STATIONARY FRONT SETS UP S OF THE REGION. WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS
IN ON TUE...FOLLOWED BY A POTENTIAL FRONTAL SYS FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ANOTHER LEFT FRONT QUAD OF A JET STREAK APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
TODAY ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK LOW
PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE INTO THE ATLANTIC WITH ANOTHER WEAK
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THERE WILL BE
ABUNDANT CLOUDS AND WITH THE PRESSURE PATTERN...EASTERLY FLOW WILL
BE SET IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY. ANOTHER COOL DAY IS EXPECTED. USED
THE MET GUIDANCE AS THAT GUIDANCE PERFORMED PRETTY WELL YESTERDAY
COMPARED TO OBSERVED TEMPERATURES. RAIN CHANCES ARE LOW TO BEGIN THE
DAY BUT INCREASE TOWARDS THE END OF THE DAY AS THAT LEFT FRONT QUAD
OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET MOVES CLOSER...ALLOWING FOR BETTER LIFT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
FOR TONIGHT...HIGHEST CHANCES OF RAIN ARE THIS EVENING WITH THE
LEFT FRONT QUAD OF THE UPPER JET RIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
SHIFTS SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT WITH A LIKEWISE DECREASE OF POPS FOR
RAIN AS THE LOW SHIFTS FARTHER OUT TO SEA AT THE SURFACE. ABUNDANT
CLOUDS AND ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUE SO USED A RELATIVELY WARMER BLEND
OF GUIDANCE FOR LOWS...1/3 NAM12 SFC TEMPERATURES AND 2/3 MAV
GUIDANCE.

FOR SATURDAY...A BRIEF REVISIT OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH RIDGING
ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR RELATIVELY WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY. THE SOURCE REGION OF THE HIGH IS IN
CENTRAL CANADA. HIGHEST TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS THE INTERIOR
WITH A SE FLOW IN PLACE IN THE AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL KEEP COASTAL
LOCATIONS RELATIVELY COOLER WITH MORE MARINE INFLUENCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
00Z MODEL SUITE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST PERIODS OF RAINY WX SUN AND
MON. QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT SETS UP S OF THE REGION SAT NGT THRU THE
REST OF THE WEEKEND. DEEP TROF ACROSS THE WRN CONUS SHOULD TAP THE
SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC AND FUNNEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. MOISTURE
STREAM INTO MEXICO ALREADY APPARENT ON WATER VAPOR. RESIDUAL
CONVECTION PROGGED TO SUPPLY EMBEDDED SHRTWV ENERGY...WITH RAIN CHCS
THEREFORE BREAKING OUT LATE SAT NGT AND PARTICULARLY ON SUN. LOW
PRES DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT THEN LIKELY IMPACTS THE AREA DURING
THE SUN NGT-MON TIME PERIOD. THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD
AMONGST THE GFS AND ECMWF WRT THE EXACT LATITUDE OF THE LOW PRES
SYS...AND AS A RESULT THE AMT OF RAIN WHICH CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE CWA. TOO MANY MOVING PARTS TO ADEQUATELY PINPOINT TIMING ON
SUN...SO HAVE KEPT POPS AT LIKELY. WRT THE LOW...SYS IS TOO FAR OUT
TO RAISE POPS ABV HIGH CHC ATTM. IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW...CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT ON TUE. THIS COULD SPARK A FEW SHWRS OR SPRINKLES...AS
LAPSE RATES PER THE GFS AROUND 9C/KM UP TO H85. H5 LOW DROPS TO
JAMES BAY TUE NGT...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF IN AGREEMENT ON
THIS...AND EVENTUALLY CARVES OUT A BROAD UPR TROF ACROSS THE NERN
CONUS WED AND THU. THIS SUPPORTS CHCS FOR AT LEAST SHWRS...WITH THE
SUGGESTION OF A POTENTIAL SPINUP OFFSHORE WHICH WOULD BRING A CHC
FOR MORE ORGANIZED RAINFALL IN THE WED-THU PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND A
STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

VFR. PATCHY LIGHT RAIN WILL DISSIPATE BY DAYBREAK. LIGHT RAIN
LIKELY REDEVELOPS LATE THIS AFTN INTO EVE FROM W TO E.

E WINDS AROUND 10 KT INTO THIS EVENING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRI NIGHT...VFR.
.SAT...VFR.
.SUN THROUGH MON...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN RAIN.
.TUE...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
OCEAN SEAS HAVE TRENDED LOWER THAN FORECAST SO FAR. THEREFORE
ADJUSTED THIS FORECAST TO BRING IN HIGHER OCEAN SEAS LATER THIS
MORNING CONSISTENT WITH THE SWAN MODEL. ESSENTIALLY THE WINDOW FOR
THE OCEAN SCA SEAS HAS BEEN SHIFTED LATER WITH AN EXTENSION MORE IN
TIME ON THE BACK END FOR TONIGHT. SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS GOES FROM
10AM THIS MORNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT. IT COULD LINGER LONGER BASED ON
THE SWAN MODEL BUT DID NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE FOR TOO LONG OF AN
EXTENSION IN TIME. OVERALL THIS WILL BE A MARGINAL EVENT AS OTHER
WATERS AND ALL WINDS WILL BE WELL BELOW SCA CRITERIA TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS SAT NGT...THEN NELY WINDS INCREASE ON
SUN WITH SCA COND POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN. LINGERING SEAS
AROUND 5 FT ON THE OCEAN MON...THEN WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS TUE.
POTENTIAL FOR 5 FT SEAS ON THE OCEAN AGAIN WED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN A
QUARTER OF AN INCH.

AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE LATE SAT NGT THRU SUN. ADDITIONAL
RAIN IS POSSIBLE ON MON...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK...SPEED AND
INTENSITY OF PASSING LOW PRES.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 10 AM THIS
     MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/JM
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JMC/JM
HYDROLOGY...JMC/JM




000
FXUS61 KOKX 290800
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
400 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK LOW MOVES FARTHER OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WITH ANOTHER WEAK LOW APPROACHING FROM THE WEST THROUGH
TONIGHT. FOR SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY RETURNS AS IT
BUILDS IN FROM CENTRAL CANADA. COOL AND UNSETTLED SUN AND MON AS
A STATIONARY FRONT SETS UP S OF THE REGION. WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS
IN ON TUE...FOLLOWED BY A POTENTIAL FRONTAL SYS FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ANOTHER LEFT FRONT QUAD OF A JET STREAK APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
TODAY ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK LOW
PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE INTO THE ATLANTIC WITH ANOTHER WEAK
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THERE WILL BE
ABUNDANT CLOUDS AND WITH THE PRESSURE PATTERN...EASTERLY FLOW WILL
BE SET IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY. ANOTHER COOL DAY IS EXPECTED. USED
THE MET GUIDANCE AS THAT GUIDANCE PERFORMED PRETTY WELL YESTERDAY
COMPARED TO OBSERVED TEMPERATURES. RAIN CHANCES ARE LOW TO BEGIN THE
DAY BUT INCREASE TOWARDS THE END OF THE DAY AS THAT LEFT FRONT QUAD
OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET MOVES CLOSER...ALLOWING FOR BETTER LIFT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
FOR TONIGHT...HIGHEST CHANCES OF RAIN ARE THIS EVENING WITH THE
LEFT FRONT QUAD OF THE UPPER JET RIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
SHIFTS SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT WITH A LIKEWISE DECREASE OF POPS FOR
RAIN AS THE LOW SHIFTS FARTHER OUT TO SEA AT THE SURFACE. ABUNDANT
CLOUDS AND ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUE SO USED A RELATIVELY WARMER BLEND
OF GUIDANCE FOR LOWS...1/3 NAM12 SFC TEMPERATURES AND 2/3 MAV
GUIDANCE.

FOR SATURDAY...A BRIEF REVISIT OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH RIDGING
ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR RELATIVELY WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY. THE SOURCE REGION OF THE HIGH IS IN
CENTRAL CANADA. HIGHEST TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS THE INTERIOR
WITH A SE FLOW IN PLACE IN THE AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL KEEP COASTAL
LOCATIONS RELATIVELY COOLER WITH MORE MARINE INFLUENCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
00Z MODEL SUITE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST PERIODS OF RAINY WX SUN AND
MON. QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT SETS UP S OF THE REGION SAT NGT THRU THE
REST OF THE WEEKEND. DEEP TROF ACROSS THE WRN CONUS SHOULD TAP THE
SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC AND FUNNEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. MOISTURE
STREAM INTO MEXICO ALREADY APPARENT ON WATER VAPOR. RESIDUAL
CONVECTION PROGGED TO SUPPLY EMBEDDED SHRTWV ENERGY...WITH RAIN CHCS
THEREFORE BREAKING OUT LATE SAT NGT AND PARTICULARLY ON SUN. LOW
PRES DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT THEN LIKELY IMPACTS THE AREA DURING
THE SUN NGT-MON TIME PERIOD. THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD
AMONGST THE GFS AND ECMWF WRT THE EXACT LATITUDE OF THE LOW PRES
SYS...AND AS A RESULT THE AMT OF RAIN WHICH CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE CWA. TOO MANY MOVING PARTS TO ADEQUATELY PINPOINT TIMING ON
SUN...SO HAVE KEPT POPS AT LIKELY. WRT THE LOW...SYS IS TOO FAR OUT
TO RAISE POPS ABV HIGH CHC ATTM. IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW...CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT ON TUE. THIS COULD SPARK A FEW SHWRS OR SPRINKLES...AS
LAPSE RATES PER THE GFS AROUND 9C/KM UP TO H85. H5 LOW DROPS TO
JAMES BAY TUE NGT...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF IN AGREEMENT ON
THIS...AND EVENTUALLY CARVES OUT A BROAD UPR TROF ACROSS THE NERN
CONUS WED AND THU. THIS SUPPORTS CHCS FOR AT LEAST SHWRS...WITH THE
SUGGESTION OF A POTENTIAL SPINUP OFFSHORE WHICH WOULD BRING A CHC
FOR MORE ORGANIZED RAINFALL IN THE WED-THU PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND A
STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

VFR. PATCHY LIGHT RAIN WILL DISSIPATE BY DAYBREAK. LIGHT RAIN
LIKELY REDEVELOPS LATE THIS AFTN INTO EVE FROM W TO E.

E WINDS AROUND 10 KT INTO THIS EVENING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRI NIGHT...VFR.
.SAT...VFR.
.SUN THROUGH MON...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN RAIN.
.TUE...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
OCEAN SEAS HAVE TRENDED LOWER THAN FORECAST SO FAR. THEREFORE
ADJUSTED THIS FORECAST TO BRING IN HIGHER OCEAN SEAS LATER THIS
MORNING CONSISTENT WITH THE SWAN MODEL. ESSENTIALLY THE WINDOW FOR
THE OCEAN SCA SEAS HAS BEEN SHIFTED LATER WITH AN EXTENSION MORE IN
TIME ON THE BACK END FOR TONIGHT. SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS GOES FROM
10AM THIS MORNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT. IT COULD LINGER LONGER BASED ON
THE SWAN MODEL BUT DID NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE FOR TOO LONG OF AN
EXTENSION IN TIME. OVERALL THIS WILL BE A MARGINAL EVENT AS OTHER
WATERS AND ALL WINDS WILL BE WELL BELOW SCA CRITERIA TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS SAT NGT...THEN NELY WINDS INCREASE ON
SUN WITH SCA COND POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN. LINGERING SEAS
AROUND 5 FT ON THE OCEAN MON...THEN WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS TUE.
POTENTIAL FOR 5 FT SEAS ON THE OCEAN AGAIN WED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN A
QUARTER OF AN INCH.

AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE LATE SAT NGT THRU SUN. ADDITIONAL
RAIN IS POSSIBLE ON MON...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK...SPEED AND
INTENSITY OF PASSING LOW PRES.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 10 AM THIS
     MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/JM
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JMC/JM
HYDROLOGY...JMC/JM




000
FXUS61 KBOX 290740
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
340 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL CANADA TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WILL YIELD MILD AFTERNOONS AND CHILLY NIGHTS THROUGH SATURDAY. A
RETURN TO UNSETTLED AND COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. A DRYING TREND FOLLOWS
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

A RELATIVELY MILD NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND.  THERE CONTINUE TO BE A FEW SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.  EXPECT THESE TO CLEAR UP BY THE MORNING
HOURS.

TODAY...EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES SOUTH OF THE MASS
PIKE.  NORTH OF THE PIKE...EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION BUT
A FEW PEEKS OF SUN ARE POSSIBLE. THE CLOUDY SKIES WILL LIMIT
TEMPERATURES A BIT...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL GET INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 50S.  EXCEPTIONS ARE IN THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY WHERE TEMPS
WILL BE AROUND 60 AND ALONG THE COAST WHERE THEY/LL BE AROUND 50.
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT ENOUGH FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF SEA BREEZES THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...

TONIGHT...A SHORTWAVE WILL PASS SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS
EVENING...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY TO THE
SOUTH COAST.  CONTINUED CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
RADIATING OVERNIGHT.  LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO
AROUND 40.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  EXPECT
CLEARING SKIES THROUGH THE DAY...ALLOWING FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES.  HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW TO
MID 60S AWAY FROM THE COASTS.  SEA BREEZES ARE EXPECTED ONCE
AGAIN...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSEASONABLY COOL WITH PERIODS OF RAIN SUN INTO MON
* DRYING TREND LIKELY TUE AND POSSIBLY WED ALONG WITH MILDER TEMPS
* MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE THU

OVERVIEW...
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN DEVELOPING AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND W CANADA WITH DOWNSTREAM TROF OVER THE GT
LAKES. EXPECT A PERIOD OF COOL AND WET CONDITIONS SUN INTO MON AS
LOW PRES TRACKS S OF NEW ENG. A BRIEF DRYING TREND AND MILDER TEMPS
WILL FOLLOW TUE AND POSSIBLY INTO WED IN BETWEEN SHORTWAVES...THEN
MID LEVEL TROF AMPLIFIES OVER THE LAKES WITH ANOTHER PERIOD OF
COOLER AND WET WEATHER POSSIBLE BY THU.

SAT NIGHT...
HIGH PRES ACROSS E NEW ENG WILL SLOWLY MOVE E AS OVERRUNNING
MOISTURE APPROACHES FROM THE SW. GFS IS FASTEST MOVING RAIN INTO SNE
LATER SAT NIGHT...WHILE ECMWF/NAM/GGEM/UKMET KEEP RAIN TO THE WEST.
FOLLOWED CONSENSUS OF DRY FORECAST WITH JUST A LOW PROB OF LIGHT
RAIN REACHING W NEW ENG LATE SAT NIGHT.

SUN INTO MON...
MOST OF THIS PERIOD LIKELY TO BE COOL AND WET. INITIAL SHOT OF RAIN
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION DURING SUN FROM WEST TO EASY AS OVERRUNNING
OF SFC BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH LEADS TO DEEP MOISTURE AND MODEST LIFT
OVERSPREADING THE REGION. RAIN MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL SUN AFTERNOON
ACROSS E NEW ENG. LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS MOSTLY IN
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S SUNDAY. A SECOND PERIOD OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED SUN NIGHT INTO MON AS LOW PRES TRACKS S OF NEW
ENG...ALTHOUGH GFS LIKELY OVERDONE WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. ANOTHER
CHILLY DAY MON WITH TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL.

TUE INTO WED...
WEAK HIGH PRES SHOULD BRING MAINLY DRY WEATHER TUE WITH TEMPS
REBOUNDING TO NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST INTO WED AS MID LEVEL TROF
AXIS STILL BACK ACROSS GT LAKES.

THU...
LOOKS LIKE UNSETTLED WEATHER AND COOLER TEMPS WILL RETURN AS MID
LEVEL TROF AMPLIFIES ACROSS NE WITH POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER COASTAL
WAVE TO THE S OF NEW ENG WITH EASTERLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.  SEA BREEZES ARE
LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG BOTH THE EAST AND SOUTH COASTS TODAY AND
SATURDAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SAT NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR CIGS. LIGHT RAIN MAY REACH
W NEW ENG TOWARD DAYBREAK.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS WITH DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS TO MVFR AND LOCALIZED IFR POSSIBLE IN PERIODS OF RAIN.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. DRYING TREND WITH VFR AND LIGHT
WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
WATERS.  THERE IS A LOW RISK OF A FEW BRIEF RAIN SHOWERS ON THE
SOUTHERN WATERS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SAT NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS.

SUNDAY INTO MON...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. INCREASING EASTERLY WINDS SUN
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...THEN SHIFTING TO NORTH DURING MON AS LOW PRES
MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. A PERIOD OF EASTERLY SCA GUSTS
POSSIBLE SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND AGAIN DURING MON AS WINDS
SHIFT TO NORTH. ROUGH SEAS GIVEN THE LONG ENE FETCH. VSBYS REDUCED
AT TIMES IN RAIN AND PATCHY FOG.

TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LIGHT WINDS BUT LEFTOVER SCA SEAS LIKELY
FOR EASTERN WATERS FROM ENE SWELLS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG




000
FXUS61 KBOX 290740
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
340 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL CANADA TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WILL YIELD MILD AFTERNOONS AND CHILLY NIGHTS THROUGH SATURDAY. A
RETURN TO UNSETTLED AND COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. A DRYING TREND FOLLOWS
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

A RELATIVELY MILD NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND.  THERE CONTINUE TO BE A FEW SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.  EXPECT THESE TO CLEAR UP BY THE MORNING
HOURS.

TODAY...EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES SOUTH OF THE MASS
PIKE.  NORTH OF THE PIKE...EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION BUT
A FEW PEEKS OF SUN ARE POSSIBLE. THE CLOUDY SKIES WILL LIMIT
TEMPERATURES A BIT...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL GET INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 50S.  EXCEPTIONS ARE IN THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY WHERE TEMPS
WILL BE AROUND 60 AND ALONG THE COAST WHERE THEY/LL BE AROUND 50.
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT ENOUGH FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF SEA BREEZES THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...

TONIGHT...A SHORTWAVE WILL PASS SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS
EVENING...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY TO THE
SOUTH COAST.  CONTINUED CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
RADIATING OVERNIGHT.  LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO
AROUND 40.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  EXPECT
CLEARING SKIES THROUGH THE DAY...ALLOWING FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES.  HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW TO
MID 60S AWAY FROM THE COASTS.  SEA BREEZES ARE EXPECTED ONCE
AGAIN...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSEASONABLY COOL WITH PERIODS OF RAIN SUN INTO MON
* DRYING TREND LIKELY TUE AND POSSIBLY WED ALONG WITH MILDER TEMPS
* MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE THU

OVERVIEW...
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN DEVELOPING AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND W CANADA WITH DOWNSTREAM TROF OVER THE GT
LAKES. EXPECT A PERIOD OF COOL AND WET CONDITIONS SUN INTO MON AS
LOW PRES TRACKS S OF NEW ENG. A BRIEF DRYING TREND AND MILDER TEMPS
WILL FOLLOW TUE AND POSSIBLY INTO WED IN BETWEEN SHORTWAVES...THEN
MID LEVEL TROF AMPLIFIES OVER THE LAKES WITH ANOTHER PERIOD OF
COOLER AND WET WEATHER POSSIBLE BY THU.

SAT NIGHT...
HIGH PRES ACROSS E NEW ENG WILL SLOWLY MOVE E AS OVERRUNNING
MOISTURE APPROACHES FROM THE SW. GFS IS FASTEST MOVING RAIN INTO SNE
LATER SAT NIGHT...WHILE ECMWF/NAM/GGEM/UKMET KEEP RAIN TO THE WEST.
FOLLOWED CONSENSUS OF DRY FORECAST WITH JUST A LOW PROB OF LIGHT
RAIN REACHING W NEW ENG LATE SAT NIGHT.

SUN INTO MON...
MOST OF THIS PERIOD LIKELY TO BE COOL AND WET. INITIAL SHOT OF RAIN
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION DURING SUN FROM WEST TO EASY AS OVERRUNNING
OF SFC BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH LEADS TO DEEP MOISTURE AND MODEST LIFT
OVERSPREADING THE REGION. RAIN MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL SUN AFTERNOON
ACROSS E NEW ENG. LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS MOSTLY IN
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S SUNDAY. A SECOND PERIOD OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED SUN NIGHT INTO MON AS LOW PRES TRACKS S OF NEW
ENG...ALTHOUGH GFS LIKELY OVERDONE WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. ANOTHER
CHILLY DAY MON WITH TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL.

TUE INTO WED...
WEAK HIGH PRES SHOULD BRING MAINLY DRY WEATHER TUE WITH TEMPS
REBOUNDING TO NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST INTO WED AS MID LEVEL TROF
AXIS STILL BACK ACROSS GT LAKES.

THU...
LOOKS LIKE UNSETTLED WEATHER AND COOLER TEMPS WILL RETURN AS MID
LEVEL TROF AMPLIFIES ACROSS NE WITH POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER COASTAL
WAVE TO THE S OF NEW ENG WITH EASTERLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.  SEA BREEZES ARE
LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG BOTH THE EAST AND SOUTH COASTS TODAY AND
SATURDAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SAT NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR CIGS. LIGHT RAIN MAY REACH
W NEW ENG TOWARD DAYBREAK.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS WITH DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS TO MVFR AND LOCALIZED IFR POSSIBLE IN PERIODS OF RAIN.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. DRYING TREND WITH VFR AND LIGHT
WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
WATERS.  THERE IS A LOW RISK OF A FEW BRIEF RAIN SHOWERS ON THE
SOUTHERN WATERS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SAT NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS.

SUNDAY INTO MON...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. INCREASING EASTERLY WINDS SUN
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...THEN SHIFTING TO NORTH DURING MON AS LOW PRES
MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. A PERIOD OF EASTERLY SCA GUSTS
POSSIBLE SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND AGAIN DURING MON AS WINDS
SHIFT TO NORTH. ROUGH SEAS GIVEN THE LONG ENE FETCH. VSBYS REDUCED
AT TIMES IN RAIN AND PATCHY FOG.

TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LIGHT WINDS BUT LEFTOVER SCA SEAS LIKELY
FOR EASTERN WATERS FROM ENE SWELLS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG




000
FXUS61 KALY 290558
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
158 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND SOUTH FROM THE
HUDSON BAY REGION INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH FRIDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES MAY BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS TO
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA INTO FRIDAY...WHILE THE REST OF THE
AREA WILL REMAIN DRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
CONTINUE TO HAVE SOME LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES OCCURRING MAINLY SOUTH
OF I-84 AS A SHORT WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE ATMOSPHERE
IS DRY BELOW 15K ON THE 12Z ALY SOUNDING. THE SHOWERS WILL
DISSIPATE AS THE WAVE PASSES OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE
DRY OVERNIGHT HOWEVER CLOUDS WILL REMAIN. STILL EXPECTING LOWS
GENERALLY INTO THE 30S...WITH AROUND 40 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND IN THE UPPER 20S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS WHERE THE
CLOUD COVER WILL BE THINNEST.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE VARIABLE ACROSS THE AREA RANGING FROM
CALM TO NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO AROUND 10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK OFF THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC
COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO BRIEFLY REBUILD BACK IN
FROM THE NORTH ALONG WITH DRIER AIR. THIS SHOULD END ANY RAIN BUT
AN EASTERLY LOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD KEEP CLOUDS
PERSISTING IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES JUST SOUTH OF ALBANY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 50S WITH A FEW WARMER SPOTS IN
AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION TOUCHING 60. THE WIND WILL VARIABLE
TO NORTHWEST 5-10 MPH.

ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH
FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING PERHAPS ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT RAIN TO AREAS
MAINLY FROM I-84 SOUTH.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE...STILL OVER THE HUDSON BAY REGION LOOK TO
BRING A DRY DAY WITH SOME SUNSHINE ACROSS MOST OF OUR REGION. THIS
SUNSHINE WILL BOLSTER TEMPERATURES A LITTLE...WITH VALLEY VALLEY
AREAS REACHING 60-65...MID TO UPPER 50S HIGHER TERRAIN.  THE WIND
LOOKS LIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO LOOK RATHER UNSETTLED AS A SERIES
OF DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE
PERCHED JUST TO OUR SOUTH.

THE FIRST ONE OF THESE WILL BEGIN TO ENCROACH ON THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. SATURDAY EVENING SHOULD REMAIN
DRY BUT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. OVERNIGHT...THE THREAT OF SHOWERS
WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT. WITH LOWS FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S...THESE SHOULD BE ALL IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAIN. IT IS POSSIBLE
A FEW ICE PELLETS OR WET SNOW FLAKES COULD MIX WELL NORTH OF
ALBANY AT TIMES...BUT WITH NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.

THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL OCCUR SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. THERE
IS SOME DISCREPANCY IN HOW STRONG A SYSTEM THIS WILL BE. THE 12Z
GFS HAD A DEEPER SLOWER MOVING LOW PRESSURE AREAS...WHILE THE 12Z
ECMWF HAS A WEAK/FASTER MOVING ONE. AT THIS POINT WE COMPROMISED
BETWEEN THE TWO SOLUTIONS...BUT EITHER WAY SOME RAIN IS A GOOD BET
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY.

WITH THE CLOUDS AND RAIN...TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY LOOK
TO BE HELD MAINLY TO THE 50S.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT LOOK MAINLY DRY ALTHOUGH ANOTHER WEAK
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH PERHAPS BRINGING A FEW SPRINKLES.
TEMPERATURES WITH ANY SUNSHINE LOOK TO REBOUND TO AROUND 60 IN THE
VALLEYS...MID TO UPPER 50S HIGHER TERRAIN. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
45 TO 50 WITH SOME LINGERING CLOUDS.

ANOTHER TROUGH LOOKS TO DIG SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA ON WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...SLINGING A FEW MORE DISTURBANCES OUR WAY. A SOUTHWEST
FLOW AHEAD OF THE IMPENDING COLD FRONT COULD SEND TEMPERATURES WELL
INTO THE 60S ACROSS MOST AREAS ON WEDNESDAY...COOLING A LITTLE ON
THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY HIGHS WILL BE BACK MAINLY IN THE 50S.

THE TIMING OF THESE DISTURBANCES AND ANY SURFACE FRONTS ARE NOT
CLEAR AT THIS TIME...SO WE WENT CHANCES BOTH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...SLIGHT CHANCES ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE IN FROM QUEBEC THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON...AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS PASS TO THE SOUTH
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...AND MID ATLANTIC REGION.

VFR CONDITION ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HRS ENDING 06Z/SAT FOR
KGFL...KPSF...KALB...AND KPOU.  MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL
THIS MORNING...BUT SOME LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF KALB WHERE CIGS MAY LOWER TO 5-6 KFT AGL NEAR KPOU BTWN 09Z-
14Z.  THESE LOWER CIGS WILL EXPAND NORTHWARD TO KALB-KPSF IN THE
LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH 4-6 KFT AGL CIGS.  EXPECT MID
OR HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO PREVAIL AT KGFL INTO THE AFTERNOON.  SOME
LIGHT RAIN OR RAIN SHOWERS MAY REACH LOCATIONS SOUTH OF KALB-KPSF IN
THE EARLY EVENING...AND VCSH GROUPS WERE USED SHORTLY BEFORE OR
JUSTAFTER 00Z/SAT.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE N TO NE AT 5-10 KTS THIS MORNING...AND
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT 5 KTS OR LESS BY 12Z. EXPECT E TO
S/SE WINDS OF LESS 7 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON...BECOMING LIGHT TO
CALM AFTER 00Z/SAT.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT:MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WITH A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BECOMING MORE NORTHEASTERLY ON FRIDAY...RH
VALUES SHOULD NOT DROP AS LOW AS RECENT DAYS. IN ADDITION...THERE
COULD BE A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN TONIGHT...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION OVERNIGHT...AND AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT.

RH VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE 30 PERCENT ON SATURDAY...MAINLY IN
THE 30S. THAT DAY LOOKS DRY EVERYWHERE.

THEN THERE COULD BE SOME RAIN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...PERHAPS QUARTER
INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL. RH VALUES LOOK TO BE ELEVATED BOTH THOSE
DAYS.

THERE IS STILL AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR MORE LIGHT SHOWERS
TUESDAY...WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE SHOWERS NEXT WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS ANOTHER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NORTHEAST.

THE SURFACE WIND TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WILL BE VARIABLE TO
NORTHEAST 5-10 MPH...BECOMING VARIABLE AT SIMILAR SPEEDS ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGY PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT FIVE
DAY ACROSS THE REGION.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION
WILL BE CHANCES FOR A ROUNDS OF FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA LATE TODAY INTO FRIDAY. WITH VERY
LITTLE QPF...THESE SHOWERS WILL HAVE NO EFFECT ON RIVER AND STREAM
LEVELS.

A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE AREA WITH RAINFALL
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TRACK...INTENSITY AND
TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM ARE STILL UNCERTAIN...ALTHOUGH A WIDESPREAD
SOAKING RAIN WOULD BE MAINLY BENEFICIAL DUE TO DRY ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS FOR THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/KL/JPV
NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV/KL
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/JPV




000
FXUS61 KOKX 290530
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
130 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST THROUGH FRIDAY...WHILE
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...AND WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE PASS EAST OFF THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE ON
SATURDAY WILL THEN GIVE WAY TO LOW PRESSURE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...
FOLLOWED BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
OVERALL THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. JUST VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE
TO TEMPERATURES...DEWPOINTS AND POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN TO BETTER
MATCH OBSERVED TRENDS.

LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK FRONTOGENESIS AND A JET STREAK
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NE NJ...THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...SOUTHERN CT
AND OVER THE OCEAN WATERS S OF LONG ISLAND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
2-3 AM AND THEN THIS RAIN ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE SPARSE GOING
THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT. THE LIFTING MECHANISM ALOFT AS
DIAGNOSED WITH THE FRONT LEFT QUAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK
WILL BE SHIFTING SOUTH AND WEAKENING GOING INTO DAYBREAK FRIDAY
WITH A TREND TOWARDS DRIER CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE.

LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 40S NYC...LOWER 40S IN
SURROUNDING AREAS...AND UPPER 30S INLAND AND ACROSS ERN LONG
ISLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
EXPECT CLOUDS TO REMAIN AROUND THROUGH THE DAY ON FRI...WITH
THE CHC FOR SHOWERS RETURNING LATE IN THE DAY WITH A STRONG
SHORTWAVE APPROACHING. CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT HIGH TEMPS MAINLY TO
THE LOWER AND MID 50S.

VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BRING
LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS FRI EVENING FROM NYC METRO NORTH/WEST...
WITH LOWER CHANCES FARTHER EAST. COULD BE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING
LATE FRI NIGHT AS A WEAK DEEP LAYER RIDGE BUILDS IN ITS WAKE.
LOW TEMPS SIMILAR TO THOSE EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENERAL TROUGHINESS NOTED THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. DETAILS IN
HANDLING OF VARIOUS UPPER SHORTWAVES UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...BUT
OVERALL PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS...AND AT LEAST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD.

IN GENERAL...DRY WX EXPECTED SATURDAY.

UNSETTLED...WET WX POSSIBLE SUNDAY-MONDAY.

DRY FOR THE MOST PART TUE AND WED...ALTHOUGH A FEW POP UP SHOWERS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THURSDAY DUE TO POSSIBLE SOUTHERN
STREAM ENERGY APPROACHING...WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE PASSING
OFFSHORE AND A COLD FRONT THAT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND A
STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

VFR. PATCHY LIGHT RAIN WILL DISSIPATE BY DAYBREAK. LIGHT RAIN
LIKELY REDEVELOPS LATE THIS AFTN INTO EVE FROM W TO E.

E WINDS AROUND 10 KT INTO THIS EVENING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRI NIGHT...VFR.
.SAT...VFR.
.SUN THROUGH MON...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN RAIN.
.TUE...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
CONTINUED QUIET OVERNIGHT WITH SUB SCA CONDITIONS ON THE
WATERS...THEN ENE FLOW INCREASING TO NEAR 20 KT SHOULD BUILD OCEAN
SEAS TO MINIMAL SCA CRITERIA FRI. SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS REMAINS AS
FLOW SHOULD BE STEADY...WITH GUSTS AOA 25 KT NOT EXPECTED. OCEAN
SEAS SUBSIDE BY FRI NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE ON SATURDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO LOW PRESSURE AND AN
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY. INCREASING
EASTERLY FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED...EVENTUALLY SHIFTING TO THE N AND
NW BEHIND THE LOW MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. SCA CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS OCEAN SEAS BUILD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ONLY UP TO 1/4 INCH OF RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH FRI NIGHT.
NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WOULD BE SATURDAY NIGHT...CONTINUING THROUGH
MONDAY...AND TAPERING OFF MONDAY NIGHT. RAIN AMOUNTS CARRY
UNCERTAINTY...BUT MODELS ARE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR UP TO AN
INCH OF RAIN.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING
     TO 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/PW
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/JM
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...GOODMAN/JM/PW
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/PW




000
FXUS61 KOKX 290530
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
130 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST THROUGH FRIDAY...WHILE
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...AND WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE PASS EAST OFF THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE ON
SATURDAY WILL THEN GIVE WAY TO LOW PRESSURE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...
FOLLOWED BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
OVERALL THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. JUST VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE
TO TEMPERATURES...DEWPOINTS AND POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN TO BETTER
MATCH OBSERVED TRENDS.

LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK FRONTOGENESIS AND A JET STREAK
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NE NJ...THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...SOUTHERN CT
AND OVER THE OCEAN WATERS S OF LONG ISLAND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
2-3 AM AND THEN THIS RAIN ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE SPARSE GOING
THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT. THE LIFTING MECHANISM ALOFT AS
DIAGNOSED WITH THE FRONT LEFT QUAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK
WILL BE SHIFTING SOUTH AND WEAKENING GOING INTO DAYBREAK FRIDAY
WITH A TREND TOWARDS DRIER CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE.

LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 40S NYC...LOWER 40S IN
SURROUNDING AREAS...AND UPPER 30S INLAND AND ACROSS ERN LONG
ISLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
EXPECT CLOUDS TO REMAIN AROUND THROUGH THE DAY ON FRI...WITH
THE CHC FOR SHOWERS RETURNING LATE IN THE DAY WITH A STRONG
SHORTWAVE APPROACHING. CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT HIGH TEMPS MAINLY TO
THE LOWER AND MID 50S.

VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BRING
LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS FRI EVENING FROM NYC METRO NORTH/WEST...
WITH LOWER CHANCES FARTHER EAST. COULD BE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING
LATE FRI NIGHT AS A WEAK DEEP LAYER RIDGE BUILDS IN ITS WAKE.
LOW TEMPS SIMILAR TO THOSE EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENERAL TROUGHINESS NOTED THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. DETAILS IN
HANDLING OF VARIOUS UPPER SHORTWAVES UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...BUT
OVERALL PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS...AND AT LEAST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD.

IN GENERAL...DRY WX EXPECTED SATURDAY.

UNSETTLED...WET WX POSSIBLE SUNDAY-MONDAY.

DRY FOR THE MOST PART TUE AND WED...ALTHOUGH A FEW POP UP SHOWERS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THURSDAY DUE TO POSSIBLE SOUTHERN
STREAM ENERGY APPROACHING...WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE PASSING
OFFSHORE AND A COLD FRONT THAT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND A
STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

VFR. PATCHY LIGHT RAIN WILL DISSIPATE BY DAYBREAK. LIGHT RAIN
LIKELY REDEVELOPS LATE THIS AFTN INTO EVE FROM W TO E.

E WINDS AROUND 10 KT INTO THIS EVENING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRI NIGHT...VFR.
.SAT...VFR.
.SUN THROUGH MON...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN RAIN.
.TUE...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
CONTINUED QUIET OVERNIGHT WITH SUB SCA CONDITIONS ON THE
WATERS...THEN ENE FLOW INCREASING TO NEAR 20 KT SHOULD BUILD OCEAN
SEAS TO MINIMAL SCA CRITERIA FRI. SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS REMAINS AS
FLOW SHOULD BE STEADY...WITH GUSTS AOA 25 KT NOT EXPECTED. OCEAN
SEAS SUBSIDE BY FRI NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE ON SATURDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO LOW PRESSURE AND AN
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY. INCREASING
EASTERLY FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED...EVENTUALLY SHIFTING TO THE N AND
NW BEHIND THE LOW MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. SCA CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS OCEAN SEAS BUILD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ONLY UP TO 1/4 INCH OF RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH FRI NIGHT.
NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WOULD BE SATURDAY NIGHT...CONTINUING THROUGH
MONDAY...AND TAPERING OFF MONDAY NIGHT. RAIN AMOUNTS CARRY
UNCERTAINTY...BUT MODELS ARE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR UP TO AN
INCH OF RAIN.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING
     TO 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/PW
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/JM
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...GOODMAN/JM/PW
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/PW




000
FXUS61 KOKX 290243
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1043 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST THROUGH FRIDAY...WHILE
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...AND WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE PASS EAST OFF THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE ON
SATURDAY WILL THEN GIVE WAY TO LOW PRESSURE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...
FOLLOWED BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED TO POPS/T/TD
LATE THIS EVE. LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK FRONTOGENESIS AND
A JET STREAK WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NE NJ...THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY...SOUTHERN CT AND OVER THE OCEAN WATERS S OF LONG ISLAND
LATE THIS EVE. A FEW SPRINKLES MAY MOVE ACROSS LONG ISLAND AS
WELL. AS THE FORCING SLIDES E TONIGHT...THE RAIN WILL TAPER OFF
WITH DRY CONDS EXPECTED BY MORNING.

LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 40S NYC...LOWER 40S IN
SURROUNDING AREAS...AND UPPER 30S INLAND AND ACROSS ERN LONG
ISLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
EXPECT CLOUDS TO REMAIN AROUND THROUGH THE DAY ON FRI...WITH
THE CHC FOR SHOWERS RETURNING LATE IN THE DAY WITH A STRONG
SHORTWAVE APPROACHING. CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT HIGH TEMPS MAINLY TO
THE LOWER AND MID 50S.

VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BRING
LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS FRI EVENING FROM NYC METRO NORTH/WEST...
WITH LOWER CHANCES FARTHER EAST. COULD BE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING
LATE FRI NIGHT AS A WEAK DEEP LAYER RIDGE BUILDS IN ITS WAKE.
LOW TEMPS SIMILAR TO THOSE EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENERAL TROUGHINESS NOTED THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. DETAILS IN
HANDLING OF VARIOUS UPPER SHORTWAVES UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...BUT
OVERALL PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS...AND AT LEAST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD.

IN GENERAL...DRY WX EXPECTED SATURDAY.

UNSETTLED...WET WX POSSIBLE SUNDAY-MONDAY.

DRY FOR THE MOST PART TUE AND WED...ALTHOUGH A FEW POP UP SHOWERS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THURSDAY DUE TO POSSIBLE SOUTHERN
STREAM ENERGY APPROACHING...WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE PASSING
OFFSHORE AND A COLD FRONT THAT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND A
STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ONE
DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST TONIGHT AND ANOTHER MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING.

GENERALLY VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. PATCHY LIGHT RAIN WILL
DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT. LOW PROB OF MVFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT INTO FRI
MORNING. LIGHT RAIN LIKELY TO DEVELOP LATE FRI AFT INTO FRI
EVE...FROM W TO E.

LIGHT SE WINDS BACK TO THE E OVERNIGHT. EAST WINDS CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRI NIGHT...VFR. LIGHT RAIN LIKELY FRIDAY EVENING. LOW PROB OF
MVFR CIGS.
.SAT...VFR.
.SUN THROUGH MON...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN RAIN.
.TUE...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
QUIET TONIGHT...THEN ENE FLOW INCREASING TO NEAR 20 KT SHOULD
BUILD OCEAN SEAS TO MINIMAL SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE DAY FRI.
SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS ISSUED AS FLOW SHOULD BE STEADY...WITH
GUSTS AOA 25 KT NOT EXPECTED. OCEAN SEAS SUBSIDE BY FRI NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE ON SATURDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO LOW PRESSURE AND AN
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY. INCREASING
EASTERLY FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED...EVENTUALLY SHIFTING TO THE N AND
NW BEHIND THE LOW MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. SCA CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS OCEAN SEAS BUILD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ONLY UP TO 1/4 INCH OF RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH FRI NIGHT.
NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WOULD BE SATURDAY NIGHT...CONTINUING THROUGH
MONDAY...AND TAPERING OFF MONDAY NIGHT. RAIN AMOUNTS CARRY
UNCERTAINTY...BUT MODELS ARE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR UP TO AN
INCH OF RAIN.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM EDT
     FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KALY 290235
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1035 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND SOUTH FROM THE
HUDSON BAY REGION INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH FRIDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES MAY BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS TO
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA INTO FRIDAY...WHILE THE REST OF THE
AREA WILL REMAIN DRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM...SOME LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES WAS STILL OCCURRING
MAINLY SOUTH OF I-84. SOME OF THIS REACHED NEAR AND SLIGHTLY
NORTH OF I-84 AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT FOR A
BRIEF TIME EARLIER THIS EVENING...BEFORE SETTLING BACK SOUTH.

LATEST REGIONAL RADARS SUGGEST THAT ADDITIONAL PATCHY LIGHT RAIN
OR SPRINKLES IS OCCURRING FROM A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK OCCURRING
ACROSS FAR SW NYS.

LATEST WV SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS A SERIES VORT MAXES CURRENTLY
LOCATED IN THE VICINITY OF LAKE ERIE...AND TRANSLATING EAST.
DESPITE FAIRLY STRONG DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL
FEATURE...A DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR BENEATH HAS LIMITED THE AREAL
EXTENT OF RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH IT...WITH MAINLY SPOTTY
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES OCCURRING. NEAR-TERM HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST THAT
THIS FEATURE WEAKENS AS IT CONTINUES TRACKING EAST INTO AN UPPER
LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW...AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THIS
MAY BE OCCURRING WITH WARMING CLOUD TOPS. HOWEVER...STILL COULD BE
A FEW ADDITIONAL SPRINKLES ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN AREAS AT TIMES
OVERNIGHT.

THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY BUT WITH PLENTY
CLOUDS. DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER...LOWS WILL HIGHER THAN LAST
NIGHT...GENERALLY INTO THE 30S...TO AROUND 40 FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD.
THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS OUR ADIRONDACKS WHERE THE CLOUD
COVER WILL BE THINNEST...ALLOWING FOR LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE VARIABLE TO NORTH/NORTHEAST AT 5-15
MPH...ALTHOUGH A FEW GUSTS UP TO 15 MPH HAVE BEEN NOTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL REGION AND UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY OVER
THE PAST HOUR OR TWO...AND MAY PERSIST A BIT LONGER UNTIL SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK OFF THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC
COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO BRIEFLY REBUILD BACK IN
FROM THE NORTH ALONG WITH DRIER AIR. THIS SHOULD END ANY RAIN BUT
AN EASTERLY LOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD KEEP CLOUDS
PERSISTING IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES JUST SOUTH OF ALBANY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 50S WITH A FEW WARMER SPOTS IN
AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION TOUCHING 60. THE WIND WILL VARIABLE
TO NORTHWEST 5-10 MPH.

ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH
FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING PERHAPS ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT RAIN TO AREAS
MAINLY FROM I-84 SOUTH.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE...STILL OVER THE HUDSON BAY REGION LOOK TO
BRING A DRY DAY WITH SOME SUNSHINE ACROSS MOST OF OUR REGION. THIS
SUNSHINE WILL BOLSTER TEMPERATURES A LITTLE...WITH VALLEY VALLEY
AREAS REACHING 60-65...MID TO UPPER 50S HIGHER TERRAIN.  THE WIND
LOOKS LIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO LOOK RATHER UNSETTLED AS A SERIES
OF DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE
PERCHED JUST TO OUR SOUTH.

THE FIRST ONE OF THESE WILL BEGIN TO ENCROACH ON THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. SATURDAY EVENING SHOULD REMAIN
DRY BUT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. OVERNIGHT...THE THREAT OF SHOWERS
WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT. WITH LOWS FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S...THESE SHOULD BE ALL IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAIN. IT IS POSSIBLE
A FEW ICE PELLETS OR WET SNOW FLAKES COULD MIX WELL NORTH OF
ALBANY AT TIMES...BUT WITH NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.

THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL OCCUR SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. THERE
IS SOME DISCREPANCY IN HOW STRONG A SYSTEM THIS WILL BE. THE 12Z
GFS HAD A DEEPER SLOWER MOVING LOW PRESSURE AREAS...WHILE THE 12Z
ECMWF HAS A WEAK/FASTER MOVING ONE. AT THIS POINT WE COMPROMISED
BETWEEN THE TWO SOLUTIONS...BUT EITHER WAY SOME RAIN IS A GOOD BET
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY.

WITH THE CLOUDS AND RAIN...TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY LOOK
TO BE HELD MAINLY TO THE 50S.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT LOOK MAINLY DRY ALTHOUGH ANOTHER WEAK
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH PERHAPS BRINGING A FEW SPRINKLES.
TEMPERATURES WITH ANY SUNSHINE LOOK TO REBOUND TO AROUND 60 IN THE
VALLEYS...MID TO UPPER 50S HIGHER TERRAIN. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
45 TO 50 WITH SOME LINGERING CLOUDS.

ANOTHER TROUGH LOOKS TO DIG SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA ON WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...SLINGING A FEW MORE DISTURBANCES OUR WAY. A SOUTHWEST
FLOW AHEAD OF THE IMPENDING COLD FRONT COULD SEND TEMPERATURES WELL
INTO THE 60S ACROSS MOST AREAS ON WEDNESDAY...COOLING A LITTLE ON
THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY HIGHS WILL BE BACK MAINLY IN THE 50S.

THE TIMING OF THESE DISTURBANCES AND ANY SURFACE FRONTS ARE NOT
CLEAR AT THIS TIME...SO WE WENT CHANCES BOTH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...SLIGHT CHANCES ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z/SAT.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT SOME MVFR CIGS DEVELOP AT
KPOU AND KPSF BETWEEN ROUGHLY 08Z-15Z/FRI...AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
DEVELOPS TO OUR SOUTH AND EXPANDS NORTHWARD LATE TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE...JUST THICKENING HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED...WITH PERHAPS SOME PATCHY LOWER...BUT VFR LEVEL CIGS
POSSIBLE DURING FRIDAY.

NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AT 5-10 KT WILL BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT...THEN TREND INTO THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY AT
5-10 KT.

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WITH A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BECOMING MORE NORTHEASTERLY ON FRIDAY...RH
VALUES SHOULD NOT DROP AS LOW AS RECENT DAYS. IN ADDITION...THERE
COULD BE A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN TONIGHT...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION OVERNIGHT...AND AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT.

RH VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE 30 PERCENT ON SATURDAY...MAINLY IN
THE 30S. THAT DAY LOOKS DRY EVERYWHERE.

THEN THERE COULD BE SOME RAIN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...PERHAPS QUARTER
INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL. RH VALUES LOOK TO BE ELEVATED BOTH THOSE
DAYS.

THERE IS STILL AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR MORE LIGHT SHOWERS
TUESDAY...WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE SHOWERS NEXT WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS ANOTHER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NORTHEAST.

THE SURFACE WIND TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WILL BE VARIABLE TO
NORTHEAST 5-10 MPH...BECOMING VARIABLE AT SIMILAR SPEEDS ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGY PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT FIVE
DAY ACROSS THE REGION.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION
WILL BE CHANCES FOR A ROUNDS OF FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA LATE TODAY INTO FRIDAY. WITH VERY
LITTLE QPF...THESE SHOWERS WILL HAVE NO EFFECT ON RIVER AND STREAM
LEVELS.

A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE AREA WITH RAINFALL
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TRACK...INTENSITY AND
TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM ARE STILL UNCERTAIN...ALTHOUGH A WIDESPREAD
SOAKING RAIN WOULD BE MAINLY BENEFICIAL DUE TO DRY ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS FOR THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/KL/JPV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/KL
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV/KL
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/JPV




000
FXUS61 KBOX 290201
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1001 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL CANADA TO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WILL YIELD MILD AFTERNOONS AND CHILLY NIGHTS. A RETURN TO
UNSETTLED AND COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. A DRYING TREND FOLLOWS
TUESDAY...HOWEVER MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE MID TO LATE
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...THE FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK THIS EVENING.
MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST TRENDS. THERE IS AN AREA OF LIGHT
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ACROSS SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT AND SOUTHERN RHODE
ISLAND. EXPECT THESE TO REMAIN VERY LIGHT AS DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION ARE STILL 15-20 DEGREES. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

===========================================================================

TONIGHT...

WHERE CAN WE EXPECT TO SEE CLOUDS AND WET WEATHER? CONFIDENCE IS
TOWARDS THE S/W WHERE THE MID-UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE RELAXES IN A
REGIME OF WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND SOME MID-LEVEL FORCING PARENT
WITH STRETCHED VORTEX ENERGY. ANY OUTCOMES WOULD BE LIGHT MAINLY
OVER S/W CT N OF A W TO E FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE DELMARVA / NJ
COASTLINE. NOT A ROBUST EVENT. HARDLY A WASHOUT. THINKING NUISANCE.
SPRINKLES TO VERY LIGHT SHOWERS. FOCUS MAINLY SW CT. DRY ELSEWHERE
PER ACCOMPANYING AIRMASS AND SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH TO N.
NON-NAM CONSENSUS.

SO OVERALL A MOSTLY DRY AND QUIET NIGHT FOR MUCH OF S NEW ENGLAND.
INCREASING AND THICKENING CLOUDS FROM THE S/W. SUBSEQUENTLY MILDER
WITH LOWS AROUND THE UPPER 30S S BUT COOLER N UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS UNDER LESS CLOUDS. CAN NOT RULE OUT
RADIATIONAL COOLING ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN AND WITHIN INTERIOR
VALLEYS OF N MASSACHUSETTS WHICH COULD DRIVE LOWS DOWN TO THE UPPER
20S IF CONDITIONS ARE RIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...

KEEPING IT DRY WITH CLOUDS LINGERING. POTENT MID LEVEL VORTEX OUT OF
THE S GREAT LAKES INVOKES WEAK LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS
TOWARDS THE DELMARVA LATE. ISALLOBARIC RESPONSE MAINTAINS DRY AIR
AND HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND WITH A COMPONENT OF
DOWN-SLOPING AIR AND SUBSIDENCE THROUGH THE LOW LEVELS. CONSIDERING
THE E ONSHORE FLOW AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF CLOUDS LINGERING MAY NUDGE
A FEW DEGREES LOWER ON HIGHS FORECAST AROUND THE UPPER 50S.

FRIDAY NIGHT...

RENEWED FOCUS OF LIGHT SHOWERY WEATHER S/W. VORTEX AND ACCOMPANYING
SURFACE LOW EMERGING OFF THE DELMARVA WITH PARENT JET ENERGY AND
DYNAMICS. CRUX OF FORCING / ISENTROPIC ASCENT SLIDES S OF THE REGION
AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR REMAIN INFLUENTIAL N/E WITH SINKING AIR
IN THE LOW LEVELS. AM CONFIDENT THAT SW CT COULD SEE LIGHT SHOWERS.
MAJORITY OF WET WEATHER WILL STAY S AND OFFSHORE. MAJORITY OF THE
ACTIVITY DURING THE EVENING WITH CLOUDS IN GREATER ABUNDANCE S/W.

SO OVERALL A DRY FORECAST FOR MUCH OF S NEW ENGLAND. A CLEARING
TREND WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN AND SINKING AIR BY
MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS TURNING
LIGHT WITH CLEARING...COULD SEE SOME PLACES RADIATE OUT DECENTLY AS
LOWS DROP INTO THE 30S. FOCUS MAINLY N/E ESPECIALLY WITH SANDY
SOILS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY AND MILD SATURDAY W/HIGHS 60-65...50S ALONG THE COAST
* COOLER WITH PERIODS OF RAIN SUN AND MON
* DRYING TREND LIKELY TUE ALONG WITH MILDER TEMPS
* MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK

SATURDAY ... WEAK MID LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE AREA PROVIDES
SURFACE RIDGING AND DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION. THUS EXPECT LOTS
OF SUNSHINE. 850 TEMPS HOVERING AROUND 0C BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE A DEEP BLYR WITH MIXING UP TO 800 MB OR SO. THEREFORE HIGHS
60-65 SEEM ACHIEVABLE INLAND WITH SEABREEZES ALONG THE COAST KEEPING
TEMPS IN THE 50S NEAR SHORE. OVERALL A REAL NICE DAY BY LATE APRIL
STANDARDS.

SUN INTO MON ... MODELS CONTINUE TO SPEED UP THE ARRIVAL OF MOISTURE
INTO NEW ENGLAND ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE 4
CORNERS REGION AND DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS FASTER TREND SEEMS
REASONABLE GIVEN THE UPPER AIR PATTERN FEATURES CONFLUENT FLOW
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. SUNDAY MAY BEGIN DRY ESPECIALLY ACROSS RI AND
EASTERN MA WHERE ALL GUID INCLUDING THE NEW 12Z ECMWF AND 12Z UKMET
HAVE PRECIP JUST CROSSING THE NY/WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BORDER AT 12Z
SUNDAY. HOWEVER WITH THE FAST CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT RAIN WILL LIKELY
OVERSPREAD THE AREA QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH STILL
TOO FAR OUT IN TIME TO NAIL DOWN SPECIFIC TIMING. AS PREVIOUS
FORECASTER MENTIONED WITH SURFACE WAVE TRACKING SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND
THE COMBINATION OF NE WINDS OFF THE CHILLY OCEAN COMBINED WITH
PERIODS OF RAIN WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO THE U40S AND L50S...POSSIBLY
COOLER. THEREFORE HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WERE DERIVED FROM THE
COOLER 2 METER MODEL TEMPS VS. THE MILDER MOS TEMPS. COOLEST
READINGS LIKELY ACROSS CT AND WESTERN-CENTRAL MA GIVEN DRY WEATHER
MAY LINGER FOR A TIME ACROSS RI AND EASTERN MA EARLY SUNDAY.

TUE ... SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER AFTER SUN/MON RAIN EVENT
WITH MEAN TROUGH AXIS MOVING OFFSHORE. GIVEN ENSEMBLE MEAN 850 TEMPS
OVER THE AREA ARE AROUND +2C/+3C AND SURFACE PRESSURES NEAR 1015
MB...FULL SUNSHINE COULD POTENTIALLY YIELD HIGHS BACK INTO THE 60S
INLAND TUE. OF COURSE COOLER NEAR THE COAST GIVEN WEAK PGRAD
SUPPORTING POTENTIAL SEABREEZES.

WED INTO THU ... LOOKS UNSETTLED AS ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE SUGGEST MEAN TROUGH RELOADS WITH NEW JET ENERGY OVER
SOUTHEAST CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE
LARGE SCALE FLOW FEATURES A POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY OVER THE ROCKIES
AND A CORRESPONDING DOWNSTREAM NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY OVER HUDSON
BAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT EAST COAST TROUGHING AND POTENTIAL UNSETTLED
WEATHER HERE IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS/PERIODS OF RAIN. COOLER TOO
GIVEN CLOUDS/PRECIP AND NORTHEAST FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

7 PM UPDATE ... NOT MUCH CHANGE TO 18Z AND 21Z TAFS. DRY WEATHER
PREVAILS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES
TONIGHT ACROSS CT/RI AND SOUTHEAST MA. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

===================================================================

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. LOW RISK MVFR ACROSS S/W CT TONIGHT AND
AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT. E/SE FLOW TONIGHT BECOMING MORE E AND BREEZY
INTO FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND BACKING N INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.

KBOS TERMINAL...VFR. SEA-BREEZE ASHORE. FLOW TO REMAIN E THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING. STRONGEST DURING THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING HOURS ON
FRIDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...VFR.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SAT ... HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR CIGS.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS WITH MVFR
AND LOCALIZED IFR POSSIBLE IN PERIODS OF RAIN.

TUESDAY ... DRYING TREND WITH VFR POSSIBLE AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS DOMINANT.
THERE IS A LOW RISK OF RAIN SHOWERS ON THE S WATERS CLOSER TO
BLOCK / LONG ISLAND TONIGHT AND AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT.

E/SE FLOW BECOMING BREEZY INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
POSSIBLE GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS DURING WHICH TIME ISOLATED 5 FOOT
SEAS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WATERS S OF ISLANDS. WINDS BACK NE INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SATURDAY ... QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS AND TRANQUIL
SEAS.

SUNDAY INTO MON ... INCREASING EASTERLY WINDS LATE SUN INTO MON AS
LOW PRES TRACKS TO THE SOUTH. A PERIOD OF SCA GUSTS POSSIBLE SUN
NIGHT INTO MON DEPENDING ON TRACK AND INTENSITY OF LOW PRES. ROUGH
SEAS GIVEN THE LONG ENE FETCH. VSBYS REDUCED AT TIMES IN SHOWERS AND
PATCHY FOG.

TUESDAY ... IMPROVING/DRYING TREND. LEFTOVER ENE SWELLS LIKELY FOR
THE OCEAN WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/RLG/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
MARINE...NOCERA/SIPPRELL




000
FXUS61 KOKX 290005
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
805 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST THROUGH FRIDAY...WHILE
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...AND WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE PASS EAST OFF THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE ON
SATURDAY WILL THEN GIVE WAY TO LOW PRESSURE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...
FOLLOWED BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK FRONTOGENESIS AND A JET STREAK
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...SOUTHERN CT AND
GENERALLY THE OCEAN WATERS S OF LONG ISLAND THIS EVE. A FEW
SPRINKLES MAY MOVE ACROSS LONG ISLAND AS WELL. AS THE FORCING
SLIDES E TONIGHT...THE RAIN WILL TAPER OFF WITH DRY CONDS
EXPECTED BY MORNING.

LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 40S NYC...LOWER 40S IN
SURROUNDING AREAS...AND UPPER 30S INLAND AND ACROSS ERN LONG
ISLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
EXPECT CLOUDS TO REMAIN AROUND THROUGH THE DAY ON FRI...WITH
THE CHC FOR SHOWERS RETURNING LATE IN THE DAY WITH A STRONG
SHORTWAVE APPROACHING. CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT HIGH TEMPS MAINLY TO
THE LOWER AND MID 50S.

VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BRING
LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS FRI EVENING FROM NYC METRO NORTH/WEST...
WITH LOWER CHANCES FARTHER EAST. COULD BE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING
LATE FRI NIGHT AS A WEAK DEEP LAYER RIDGE BUILDS IN ITS WAKE.
LOW TEMPS SIMILAR TO THOSE EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENERAL TROUGHINESS NOTED THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. DETAILS IN
HANDLING OF VARIOUS UPPER SHORTWAVES UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...BUT
OVERALL PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS...AND AT LEAST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD.

IN GENERAL...DRY WX EXPECTED SATURDAY.

UNSETTLED...WET WX POSSIBLE SUNDAY-MONDAY.

DRY FOR THE MOST PART TUE AND WED...ALTHOUGH A FEW POP UP SHOWERS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THURSDAY DUE TO POSSIBLE SOUTHERN
STREAM ENERGY APPROACHING...WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE PASSING
OFFSHORE AND A COLD FRONT THAT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND A
STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ONE
DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING AND ANOTHER FRIDAY
EVENING.

GENERALLY VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. PATCHY LIGHT RAIN WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...COMING TO AN END AFTER 06Z.
LOW PROB OF MVFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING.

LIGHT S/SE WINDS BACK TO THE E THROUGH THE EVENING. EAST WINDS
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW PROBABILITY OF MVFR CIGS FRI MORNING.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW PROBABILITY OF MVFR CIGS FRI MORNING. NE
GUSTS 15 TO 20 KT LIKELY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRI AFT.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW PROBABILITY OF MVFR CIGS FRI MORNING.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW PROBABILITY OF MVFR CIGS FRI MORNING.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW PROBABILITY OF MVFR CIGS FRI MORNING.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW PROBABILITY OF MVFR CIGS FRI MORNING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRI NIGHT...VFR. LIGHT RAIN LIKELY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY
EVENING. LOW PROB OF MVFR CIGS.
.SAT...VFR.
.SUN THROUGH MON...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN RAIN.
.TUE...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
QUIET TONIGHT...THEN ENE FLOW INCREASING TO NEAR 20 KT SHOULD
BUILD OCEAN SEAS TO MINIMAL SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE DAY FRI.
SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS ISSUED AS FLOW SHOULD BE STEADY...WITH
GUSTS AOA 25 KT NOT EXPECTED. OCEAN SEAS SUBSIDE BY FRI NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE ON SATURDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO LOW PRESSURE AND AN
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY. INCREASING
EASTERLY FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED...EVENTUALLY SHIFTING TO THE N AND
NW BEHIND THE LOW MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. SCA CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS OCEAN SEAS BUILD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ONLY UP TO 1/4 INCH OF RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH FRI NIGHT.
NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WOULD BE SATURDAY NIGHT...CONTINUING THROUGH
MONDAY...AND TAPERING OFF MONDAY NIGHT. RAIN AMOUNTS CARRY
UNCERTAINTY...BUT MODELS ARE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR UP TO AN
INCH OF RAIN.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM EDT
     FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KALY 282336
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
736 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND SOUTH FROM THE
HUDSON BAY REGION INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH FRIDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES MAY BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS TO
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA INTO FRIDAY...WHILE THE REST OF THE
AREA WILL REMAIN DRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 720 PM...HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE INCREASING...WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES NOW ENCOMPASSING THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION
OUTSIDE PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT.

LATEST REGIONAL RADARS SUGGEST THAT LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES IS
OCCURRING FROM A MID LEVEL CLOUD CLOSE TO AND SOUTH OF THE I-84
CORRIDOR. ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES WAS OCCURRING ACROSS FAR
SW NYS.

LATEST WV SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS A STRONG VORT MAX CURRENTLY
LOCATED IN THE VICINITY OF LAKE ERIE...AND IS TRANSLATING EAST.
DESPITE FAIRLY STRONG DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL
FEATURE...A DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR BENEATH HAS LIMITED THE AREAL
EXTENT OF RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH IT...WITH MAINLY SPOTTY
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES OCCURRING. NEAR-TERM HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST THAT
THIS FEATURE WEAKENS AS IT CONTINUES TRACKING EAST INTO AN UPPER
LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW. HOWEVER...STILL EXPECT SOME SPOTTY LIGHT
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES TO OCCUR ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH
THIS EVENING...AGAIN WITH HIGHEST CHANCES CLOSE TO THE I-84
CORRIDOR AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO.

THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY BUT WITH PLENTY
CLOUDS. DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER...LOWS WILL HIGHER THAN LAST
NIGHT...GENERALLY INTO THE 30S...TO AROUND 40 FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD.
THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS OUR ADIRONDACKS WHERE THE CLOUD
COVER WILL BE THINNEST...ALLOWING FOR LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE VARIABLE TO NORTH/NORTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH
OR LESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK OFF THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC
COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO BRIEFLY REBUILD BACK IN
FROM THE NORTH ALONG WITH DRIER AIR. THIS SHOULD END ANY RAIN BUT
AN EASTERLY LOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD KEEP CLOUDS
PERSISTING IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES JUST SOUTH OF ALBANY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 50S WITH A FEW WARMER SPOTS IN
AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION TOUCHING 60. THE WIND WILL VARIABLE
TO NORTHWEST 5-10 MPH.

ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH
FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING PERHAPS ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT RAIN TO AREAS
MAINLY FROM I-84 SOUTH.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE...STILL OVER THE HUDSON BAY REGION LOOK TO
BRING A DRY DAY WITH SOME SUNSHINE ACROSS MOST OF OUR REGION. THIS
SUNSHINE WILL BOLSTER TEMPERATURES A LITTLE...WITH VALLEY VALLEY
AREAS REACHING 60-65...MID TO UPPER 50S HIGHER TERRAIN.  THE WIND
LOOKS LIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO LOOK RATHER UNSETTLED AS A SERIES
OF DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE
PERCHED JUST TO OUR SOUTH.

THE FIRST ONE OF THESE WILL BEGIN TO ENCROACH ON THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. SATURDAY EVENING SHOULD REMAIN
DRY BUT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. OVERNIGHT...THE THREAT OF SHOWERS
WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT. WITH LOWS FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S...THESE SHOULD BE ALL IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAIN. IT IS POSSIBLE
A FEW ICE PELLETS OR WET SNOW FLAKES COULD MIX WELL NORTH OF
ALBANY AT TIMES...BUT WITH NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.

THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL OCCUR SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. THERE
IS SOME DISCREPANCY IN HOW STRONG A SYSTEM THIS WILL BE. THE 12Z
GFS HAD A DEEPER SLOWER MOVING LOW PRESSURE AREAS...WHILE THE 12Z
ECMWF HAS A WEAK/FASTER MOVING ONE. AT THIS POINT WE COMPROMISED
BETWEEN THE TWO SOLUTIONS...BUT EITHER WAY SOME RAIN IS A GOOD BET
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY.

WITH THE CLOUDS AND RAIN...TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY LOOK
TO BE HELD MAINLY TO THE 50S.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT LOOK MAINLY DRY ALTHOUGH ANOTHER WEAK
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH PERHAPS BRINGING A FEW SPRINKLES.
TEMPERATURES WITH ANY SUNSHINE LOOK TO REBOUND TO AROUND 60 IN THE
VALLEYS...MID TO UPPER 50S HIGHER TERRAIN. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
45 TO 50 WITH SOME LINGERING CLOUDS.

ANOTHER TROUGH LOOKS TO DIG SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA ON WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...SLINGING A FEW MORE DISTURBANCES OUR WAY. A SOUTHWEST
FLOW AHEAD OF THE IMPENDING COLD FRONT COULD SEND TEMPERATURES WELL
INTO THE 60S ACROSS MOST AREAS ON WEDNESDAY...COOLING A LITTLE ON
THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY HIGHS WILL BE BACK MAINLY IN THE 50S.

THE TIMING OF THESE DISTURBANCES AND ANY SURFACE FRONTS ARE NOT
CLEAR AT THIS TIME...SO WE WENT CHANCES BOTH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...SLIGHT CHANCES ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z/SAT.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT SOME MVFR CIGS DEVELOP AT
KPOU AND KPSF BETWEEN ROUGHLY 08Z-15Z/FRI...AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
DEVELOPS TO OUR SOUTH AND EXPANDS NORTHWARD LATE TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE...JUST THICKENING HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED...WITH PERHAPS SOME PATCHY LOWER...BUT VFR LEVEL CIGS
POSSIBLE DURING FRIDAY.

NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AT 5-10 KT WILL BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT...THEN TREND INTO THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY AT
5-10 KT.

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WITH A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BECOMING MORE NORTHEASTERLY ON FRIDAY...RH
VALUES SHOULD NOT DROP AS LOW AS RECENT DAYS. IN ADDITION...THERE
COULD BE A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN TONIGHT...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION OVERNIGHT...AND AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT.

RH VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE 30 PERCENT ON SATURDAY...MAINLY IN
THE 30S. THAT DAY LOOKS DRY EVERYWHERE.

THEN THERE COULD BE SOME RAIN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...PERHAPS QUARTER
INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL. RH VALUES LOOK TO BE ELEVATED BOTH THOSE
DAYS.

THERE IS STILL AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR MORE LIGHT SHOWERS
TUESDAY...WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE SHOWERS NEXT WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS ANOTHER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NORTHEAST.

THE SURFACE WIND TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WILL BE VARIABLE TO
NORTHEAST 5-10 MPH...BECOMING VARIABLE AT SIMILAR SPEEDS ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGY PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT FIVE
DAY ACROSS THE REGION.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION
WILL BE CHANCES FOR A ROUNDS OF FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA LATE TODAY INTO FRIDAY. WITH VERY
LITTLE QPF...THESE SHOWERS WILL HAVE NO EFFECT ON RIVER AND STREAM
LEVELS.

A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE AREA WITH RAINFALL
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TRACK...INTENSITY AND
TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM ARE STILL UNCERTAIN...ALTHOUGH A WIDESPREAD
SOAKING RAIN WOULD BE MAINLY BENEFICIAL DUE TO DRY ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS FOR THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/KL/JPV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/KL
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV/KL
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/JPV




000
FXUS61 KALY 282336
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
736 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND SOUTH FROM THE
HUDSON BAY REGION INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH FRIDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES MAY BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS TO
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA INTO FRIDAY...WHILE THE REST OF THE
AREA WILL REMAIN DRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 720 PM...HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE INCREASING...WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES NOW ENCOMPASSING THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION
OUTSIDE PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT.

LATEST REGIONAL RADARS SUGGEST THAT LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES IS
OCCURRING FROM A MID LEVEL CLOUD CLOSE TO AND SOUTH OF THE I-84
CORRIDOR. ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES WAS OCCURRING ACROSS FAR
SW NYS.

LATEST WV SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS A STRONG VORT MAX CURRENTLY
LOCATED IN THE VICINITY OF LAKE ERIE...AND IS TRANSLATING EAST.
DESPITE FAIRLY STRONG DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL
FEATURE...A DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR BENEATH HAS LIMITED THE AREAL
EXTENT OF RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH IT...WITH MAINLY SPOTTY
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES OCCURRING. NEAR-TERM HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST THAT
THIS FEATURE WEAKENS AS IT CONTINUES TRACKING EAST INTO AN UPPER
LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW. HOWEVER...STILL EXPECT SOME SPOTTY LIGHT
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES TO OCCUR ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH
THIS EVENING...AGAIN WITH HIGHEST CHANCES CLOSE TO THE I-84
CORRIDOR AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO.

THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY BUT WITH PLENTY
CLOUDS. DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER...LOWS WILL HIGHER THAN LAST
NIGHT...GENERALLY INTO THE 30S...TO AROUND 40 FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD.
THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS OUR ADIRONDACKS WHERE THE CLOUD
COVER WILL BE THINNEST...ALLOWING FOR LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE VARIABLE TO NORTH/NORTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH
OR LESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK OFF THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC
COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO BRIEFLY REBUILD BACK IN
FROM THE NORTH ALONG WITH DRIER AIR. THIS SHOULD END ANY RAIN BUT
AN EASTERLY LOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD KEEP CLOUDS
PERSISTING IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES JUST SOUTH OF ALBANY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 50S WITH A FEW WARMER SPOTS IN
AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION TOUCHING 60. THE WIND WILL VARIABLE
TO NORTHWEST 5-10 MPH.

ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH
FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING PERHAPS ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT RAIN TO AREAS
MAINLY FROM I-84 SOUTH.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE...STILL OVER THE HUDSON BAY REGION LOOK TO
BRING A DRY DAY WITH SOME SUNSHINE ACROSS MOST OF OUR REGION. THIS
SUNSHINE WILL BOLSTER TEMPERATURES A LITTLE...WITH VALLEY VALLEY
AREAS REACHING 60-65...MID TO UPPER 50S HIGHER TERRAIN.  THE WIND
LOOKS LIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO LOOK RATHER UNSETTLED AS A SERIES
OF DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE
PERCHED JUST TO OUR SOUTH.

THE FIRST ONE OF THESE WILL BEGIN TO ENCROACH ON THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. SATURDAY EVENING SHOULD REMAIN
DRY BUT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. OVERNIGHT...THE THREAT OF SHOWERS
WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT. WITH LOWS FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S...THESE SHOULD BE ALL IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAIN. IT IS POSSIBLE
A FEW ICE PELLETS OR WET SNOW FLAKES COULD MIX WELL NORTH OF
ALBANY AT TIMES...BUT WITH NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.

THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL OCCUR SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. THERE
IS SOME DISCREPANCY IN HOW STRONG A SYSTEM THIS WILL BE. THE 12Z
GFS HAD A DEEPER SLOWER MOVING LOW PRESSURE AREAS...WHILE THE 12Z
ECMWF HAS A WEAK/FASTER MOVING ONE. AT THIS POINT WE COMPROMISED
BETWEEN THE TWO SOLUTIONS...BUT EITHER WAY SOME RAIN IS A GOOD BET
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY.

WITH THE CLOUDS AND RAIN...TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY LOOK
TO BE HELD MAINLY TO THE 50S.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT LOOK MAINLY DRY ALTHOUGH ANOTHER WEAK
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH PERHAPS BRINGING A FEW SPRINKLES.
TEMPERATURES WITH ANY SUNSHINE LOOK TO REBOUND TO AROUND 60 IN THE
VALLEYS...MID TO UPPER 50S HIGHER TERRAIN. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
45 TO 50 WITH SOME LINGERING CLOUDS.

ANOTHER TROUGH LOOKS TO DIG SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA ON WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...SLINGING A FEW MORE DISTURBANCES OUR WAY. A SOUTHWEST
FLOW AHEAD OF THE IMPENDING COLD FRONT COULD SEND TEMPERATURES WELL
INTO THE 60S ACROSS MOST AREAS ON WEDNESDAY...COOLING A LITTLE ON
THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY HIGHS WILL BE BACK MAINLY IN THE 50S.

THE TIMING OF THESE DISTURBANCES AND ANY SURFACE FRONTS ARE NOT
CLEAR AT THIS TIME...SO WE WENT CHANCES BOTH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...SLIGHT CHANCES ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z/SAT.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT SOME MVFR CIGS DEVELOP AT
KPOU AND KPSF BETWEEN ROUGHLY 08Z-15Z/FRI...AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
DEVELOPS TO OUR SOUTH AND EXPANDS NORTHWARD LATE TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE...JUST THICKENING HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED...WITH PERHAPS SOME PATCHY LOWER...BUT VFR LEVEL CIGS
POSSIBLE DURING FRIDAY.

NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AT 5-10 KT WILL BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT...THEN TREND INTO THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY AT
5-10 KT.

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WITH A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BECOMING MORE NORTHEASTERLY ON FRIDAY...RH
VALUES SHOULD NOT DROP AS LOW AS RECENT DAYS. IN ADDITION...THERE
COULD BE A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN TONIGHT...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION OVERNIGHT...AND AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT.

RH VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE 30 PERCENT ON SATURDAY...MAINLY IN
THE 30S. THAT DAY LOOKS DRY EVERYWHERE.

THEN THERE COULD BE SOME RAIN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...PERHAPS QUARTER
INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL. RH VALUES LOOK TO BE ELEVATED BOTH THOSE
DAYS.

THERE IS STILL AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR MORE LIGHT SHOWERS
TUESDAY...WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE SHOWERS NEXT WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS ANOTHER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NORTHEAST.

THE SURFACE WIND TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WILL BE VARIABLE TO
NORTHEAST 5-10 MPH...BECOMING VARIABLE AT SIMILAR SPEEDS ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGY PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT FIVE
DAY ACROSS THE REGION.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION
WILL BE CHANCES FOR A ROUNDS OF FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA LATE TODAY INTO FRIDAY. WITH VERY
LITTLE QPF...THESE SHOWERS WILL HAVE NO EFFECT ON RIVER AND STREAM
LEVELS.

A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE AREA WITH RAINFALL
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TRACK...INTENSITY AND
TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM ARE STILL UNCERTAIN...ALTHOUGH A WIDESPREAD
SOAKING RAIN WOULD BE MAINLY BENEFICIAL DUE TO DRY ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS FOR THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/KL/JPV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/KL
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV/KL
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/JPV




000
FXUS61 KBOX 282304
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
704 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF WEAK LOWS WILL TRACK SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT
THROUGH FRI NIGHT...POSSIBLY BRINGING A PERIOD OR TWO OF LIGHT
RAIN/SPRINKLES TO CONNECTICUT...RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST
MASSACHUSETTS. OTHERWISE REMAINDER OF THE REGION REMAINS DRY
THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL CANADA TO NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL YIELD MILD AFTERNOONS AND CHILLY NIGHTS. A
RETURN TO UNSETTLED AND COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. A DRYING
TREND FOLLOWS TUESDAY...HOWEVER MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE
MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AS A NEW AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY FORM ALONG
OR NEAR THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

7 PM UPDATE...

PREVIOUS FORECAST VERIFYING NICELY WITH DRY WEATHER LINGERING
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. RAIN SHIELD ENTERING SOUTHWEST CT
CONTINUES TO ERODE THANKS TO 20+ DEW PT DEPRESSIONS. 15Z SREF...
18Z GFS AND 18Z NAM CONTINUE THREAT FOR A PERIOD OF VERY LIGHT
RAIN/SPRINKLES ACROSS CT/RI AND SOUTHEAST MA. CURRENT FORECAST
CAPTURES THIS WELL SO NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE
OTHER THAN ADJUSTING HOURLY TEMPS AND DEW PTS TO BETTER REFLECT
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. MARINE LAYER HAS ADVANCED WELL INLAND WITH
ALL OF RI AND SOUTHEAST MA NOW ONLY IN THE U40S. MEANWHILE FIT
STILL HOLDING ONTO 60 DEGS. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

===========================================================================

CLOUDS THICKENING FROM THE S/W UP AGAINST HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY-
SINKING AIR. THIS ACTIVITY PARENT WITH MID LEVEL VORTEX ENERGY
STRETCHING THROUGH THE CONFLUENT FLOW PATTERN ACROSS AND TO THE E
OF NEW ENGLAND. INTO THIS EVENING ONLY EXPECTING THICKENING CLOUDS
OVER S NEW ENGLAND AND REMAINING MOSTLY DRY. THERE IS THE PRESENCE
OF SOME MID LEVEL FORCING ALLOWING FOR LIFT OF UPSLOPING MOISTURE
RESULTING IN RADAR RETURNS AT HIGHER LEVELS OVER THE LOWER HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY. WHILE AN ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR...CAN NOT RULE OUT IT
REACHING THE GROUND. WILL HINT CHANCE POPS OVER THE HARTFORD METRO
AND POINTS S/W.

TONIGHT...

WHERE CAN WE EXPECT TO SEE CLOUDS AND WET WEATHER? CONFIDENCE IS
TOWARDS THE S/W WHERE THE MID-UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE RELAXES IN A
REGIME OF WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND SOME MID-LEVEL FORCING PARENT
WITH STRETCHED VORTEX ENERGY. ANY OUTCOMES WOULD BE LIGHT MAINLY
OVER S/W CT N OF A W TO E FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE DELMARVA / NJ
COASTLINE. NOT A ROBUST EVENT. HARDLY A WASHOUT. THINKING NUISANCE.
SPRINKLES TO VERY LIGHT SHOWERS. FOCUS MAINLY SW CT. DRY ELSEWHERE
PER ACCOMPANYING AIRMASS AND SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH TO N.
NON-NAM CONSENSUS.

SO OVERALL A MOSTLY DRY AND QUIET NIGHT FOR MUCH OF S NEW ENGLAND.
INCREASING AND THICKENING CLOUDS FROM THE S/W. SUBSEQUENTLY MILDER
WITH LOWS AROUND THE UPPER 30S S BUT COOLER N UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS UNDER LESS CLOUDS. CAN NOT RULE OUT
RADIATIONAL COOLING ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN AND WITHIN INTERIOR
VALLEYS OF N MASSACHUSETTS WHICH COULD DRIVE LOWS DOWN TO THE UPPER
20S IF CONDITIONS ARE RIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...

KEEPING IT DRY WITH CLOUDS LINGERING. POTENT MID LEVEL VORTEX OUT OF
THE S GREAT LAKES INVOKES WEAK LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS
TOWARDS THE DELMARVA LATE. ISALLOBARIC RESPONSE MAINTAINS DRY AIR
AND HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND WITH A COMPONENT OF
DOWN-SLOPING AIR AND SUBSIDENCE THROUGH THE LOW LEVELS. CONSIDERING
THE E ONSHORE FLOW AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF CLOUDS LINGERING MAY NUDGE
A FEW DEGREES LOWER ON HIGHS FORECAST AROUND THE UPPER 50S.

FRIDAY NIGHT...

RENEWED FOCUS OF LIGHT SHOWERY WEATHER S/W. VORTEX AND ACCOMPANYING
SURFACE LOW EMERGING OFF THE DELMARVA WITH PARENT JET ENERGY AND
DYNAMICS. CRUX OF FORCING / ISENTROPIC ASCENT SLIDES S OF THE REGION
AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR REMAIN INFLUENTIAL N/E WITH SINKING AIR
IN THE LOW LEVELS. AM CONFIDENT THAT SW CT COULD SEE LIGHT SHOWERS.
MAJORITY OF WET WEATHER WILL STAY S AND OFFSHORE. MAJORITY OF THE
ACTIVITY DURING THE EVENING WITH CLOUDS IN GREATER ABUNDANCE S/W.

SO OVERALL A DRY FORECAST FOR MUCH OF S NEW ENGLAND. A CLEARING
TREND WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN AND SINKING AIR BY
MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS TURNING
LIGHT WITH CLEARING...COULD SEE SOME PLACES RADIATE OUT DECENTLY AS
LOWS DROP INTO THE 30S. FOCUS MAINLY N/E ESPECIALLY WITH SANDY
SOILS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY AND MILD SATURDAY W/HIGHS 60-65...50S ALONG THE COAST
* COOLER WITH PERIODS OF RAIN SUN AND MON
* DRYING TREND LIKELY TUE ALONG WITH MILDER TEMPS
* MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK

SATURDAY ... WEAK MID LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE AREA PROVIDES
SURFACE RIDGING AND DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION. THUS EXPECT LOTS
OF SUNSHINE. 850 TEMPS HOVERING AROUND 0C BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE A DEEP BLYR WITH MIXING UP TO 800 MB OR SO. THEREFORE HIGHS
60-65 SEEM ACHIEVABLE INLAND WITH SEABREEZES ALONG THE COAST KEEPING
TEMPS IN THE 50S NEAR SHORE. OVERALL A REAL NICE DAY BY LATE APRIL
STANDARDS.

SUN INTO MON ... MODELS CONTINUE TO SPEED UP THE ARRIVAL OF MOISTURE
INTO NEW ENGLAND ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE 4
CORNERS REGION AND DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS FASTER TREND SEEMS
REASONABLE GIVEN THE UPPER AIR PATTERN FEATURES CONFLUENT FLOW
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. SUNDAY MAY BEGIN DRY ESPECIALLY ACROSS RI AND
EASTERN MA WHERE ALL GUID INCLUDING THE NEW 12Z ECMWF AND 12Z UKMET
HAVE PRECIP JUST CROSSING THE NY/WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BORDER AT 12Z
SUNDAY. HOWEVER WITH THE FAST CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT RAIN WILL LIKELY
OVERSPREAD THE AREA QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH STILL
TOO FAR OUT IN TIME TO NAIL DOWN SPECIFIC TIMING. AS PREVIOUS
FORECASTER MENTIONED WITH SURFACE WAVE TRACKING SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND
THE COMBINATION OF NE WINDS OFF THE CHILLY OCEAN COMBINED WITH
PERIODS OF RAIN WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO THE U40S AND L50S...POSSIBLY
COOLER. THEREFORE HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WERE DERIVED FROM THE
COOLER 2 METER MODEL TEMPS VS. THE MILDER MOS TEMPS. COOLEST
READINGS LIKELY ACROSS CT AND WESTERN-CENTRAL MA GIVEN DRY WEATHER
MAY LINGER FOR A TIME ACROSS RI AND EASTERN MA EARLY SUNDAY.

TUE ... SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER AFTER SUN/MON RAIN EVENT
WITH MEAN TROUGH AXIS MOVING OFFSHORE. GIVEN ENSEMBLE MEAN 850 TEMPS
OVER THE AREA ARE AROUND +2C/+3C AND SURFACE PRESSURES NEAR 1015
MB...FULL SUNSHINE COULD POTENTIALLY YIELD HIGHS BACK INTO THE 60S
INLAND TUE. OF COURSE COOLER NEAR THE COAST GIVEN WEAK PGRAD
SUPPORTING POTENTIAL SEABREEZES.

WED INTO THU ... LOOKS UNSETTLED AS ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE SUGGEST MEAN TROUGH RELOADS WITH NEW JET ENERGY OVER
SOUTHEAST CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE
LARGE SCALE FLOW FEATURES A POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY OVER THE ROCKIES
AND A CORRESPONDING DOWNSTREAM NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY OVER HUDSON
BAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT EAST COAST TROUGHING AND POTENTIAL UNSETTLED
WEATHER HERE IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS/PERIODS OF RAIN. COOLER TOO
GIVEN CLOUDS/PRECIP AND NORTHEAST FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

7 PM UPDATE ... NOT MUCH CHANGE TO 18Z AND 21Z TAFS. DRY WEATHER
PREVAILS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES
TONIGHT ACROSS CT/RI AND SOUTHEAST MA. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

===================================================================

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. LOW RISK MVFR ACROSS S/W CT TONIGHT AND
AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT. E/SE FLOW TONIGHT BECOMING MORE E AND BREEZY
INTO FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND BACKING N INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.

KBOS TERMINAL...VFR. SEA-BREEZE ASHORE. FLOW TO REMAIN E THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING. STRONGEST DURING THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING HOURS ON
FRIDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...VFR.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SAT ... HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR CIGS.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS WITH MVFR
AND LOCALIZED IFR POSSIBLE IN PERIODS OF RAIN.

TUESDAY ... DRYING TREND WITH VFR POSSIBLE AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS DOMINANT.
THERE IS A LOW RISK OF RAIN SHOWERS ON THE S WATERS CLOSER TO
BLOCK / LONG ISLAND TONIGHT AND AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT.

E/SE FLOW BECOMING BREEZY INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
POSSIBLE GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS DURING WHICH TIME ISOLATED 5 FOOT
SEAS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WATERS S OF ISLANDS. WINDS BACK NE INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SATURDAY ... QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS AND TRANQUIL
SEAS.

SUNDAY INTO MON ... INCREASING EASTERLY WINDS LATE SUN INTO MON AS
LOW PRES TRACKS TO THE SOUTH. A PERIOD OF SCA GUSTS POSSIBLE SUN
NIGHT INTO MON DEPENDING ON TRACK AND INTENSITY OF LOW PRES. ROUGH
SEAS GIVEN THE LONG ENE FETCH. VSBYS REDUCED AT TIMES IN SHOWERS AND
PATCHY FOG.

TUESDAY ... IMPROVING/DRYING TREND. LEFTOVER ENE SWELLS LIKELY FOR
THE OCEAN WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
MARINE...NOCERA/SIPPRELL




000
FXUS61 KOKX 282203
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
603 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST THROUGH FRIDAY...WHILE
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...AND WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE PASS EAST OFF THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE ON
SATURDAY WILL THEN GIVE WAY TO LOW PRESSURE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...
FOLLOWED BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
BAND OF LIGHT RAIN AHEAD OF WEAK UPPER TROUGH IS APPROACHING FROM
NE PA AND CENTRAL NJ AND HOLDING TOGETHER FAIRLY WELL...SO HAVE
FCST LIKELY POP FOR THIS EVENING FOR NYC METRO AND THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY. RADAR RETURNS OVER NORTHERN PA CONFIRM EARLIER
THINKING THAT ENHANCED LIFT FROM COMBO OF THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF
AN UPPER JET STREAK AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND H7 FRONTOGENESIS
SHOULD IMPACT MAINLY INLAND SECTIONS THIS EVENING...SO HAVE
CONTINUED WITH LIKELY POP THERE. PRECIP SHOULD THEN TAPER OFF
OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S NYC...LOWER 40S IN
SURROUNDING AREAS...AND UPPER 30S INLAND AND ACROSS ERN LONG
ISLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
EXPECT CLOUDS TO REMAIN AROUND THROUGH THE DAY ON FRI...WITH ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES THROUGH THE DAY
EXCEPT OUT EAST. CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT HIGH TEMPS MAINLY TO THE
LOWER AND MID 50S.

VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BRING
LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS FRI EVENING FROM NYC METRO NORTH/WEST...
WITH LOWER CHANCES FARTHER EAST. COULD BE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING
LATE FRI NIGHT AS A WEAK DEEP LAYER RIDGE BUILDS IN ITS WAKE.
LOW TEMPS SIMILAR TO THOSE EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENERAL TROUGHINESS NOTED THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. DETAILS IN
HANDLING OF VARIOUS UPPER SHORTWAVES UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...BUT
OVERALL PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS...AND AT LEAST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD.

IN GENERAL...DRY WX EXPECTED SATURDAY.

UNSETTLED...WET WX POSSIBLE SUNDAY-MONDAY.

DRY FOR THE MOST PART TUE AND WED...ALTHOUGH A FEW POP UP SHOWERS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THURSDAY DUE TO POSSIBLE SOUTHERN
STREAM ENERGY APPROACHING...WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE PASSING
OFFSHORE AND A COLD FRONT THAT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND A
STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LOW PROB OF MVFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT
INTO FRI MORNING. LIGHT RAIN WILL GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA
FROM W TO E THIS EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STEADY RAIN IS OVER
THE CITY TERMINALS AND ALONG THE CONNECTICUT COAST. ANY RAIN COMES
TO AN END AFTER MIDNIGHT.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 10KT OR LESS TO
START...BECOMING NORTHEASTERLY TONIGHT. WINDS THEN CONTINUE TO VEER
TO THE EAST DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW PROBABILITY OF MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 02Z
AND FRI MORNING.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW PROBABILITY OF MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 02Z
AND FRI MORNING.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW PROBABILITY OF MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 02Z
AND FRI MORNING.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW PROBABILITY OF MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 02Z
AND FRI MORNING.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW PROBABILITY OF MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 02Z
AND FRI MORNING.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW PROBABILITY OF MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 02Z
AND FRI MORNING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRI NIGHT...VFR. CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON OR
EARLY FRIDAY EVENING.
.SAT...VFR.
.SUN THROUGH MON...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN RAIN.
.TUE...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
QUIET TONIGHT...THEN ENE FLOW INCREASING TO NEAR 20 KT SHOULD
BUILD OCEAN SEAS TO MINIMAL SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE DAY FRI.
SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS ISSUED AS FLOW SHOULD BE STEADY...WITH
GUSTS AOA 25 KT NOT EXPECTED. OCEAN SEAS SUBSIDE BY FRI NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE ON SATURDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO LOW PRESSURE AND AN
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY. INCREASING
EASTERLY FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED...EVENTUALLY SHIFTING TO THE N AND
NW BEHIND THE LOW MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. SCA CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS OCEAN SEAS BUILD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ONLY UP TO 1/4 INCH OF RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH FRI NIGHT.
NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WOULD BE SATURDAY NIGHT...CONTINUING THROUGH
MONDAY...AND TAPERING OFF MONDAY NIGHT. RAIN AMOUNTS CARRY
UNCERTAINTY...BUT MODELS ARE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR UP TO AN
INCH OF RAIN.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM EDT
     FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/PW
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...FEB
MARINE...GOODMAN/PW
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/PW




000
FXUS61 KALY 282117
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
517 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND SOUTH FROM THE
HUDSON BAY REGION INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH FRIDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES MAY BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS TO
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA INTO FRIDAY...WHILE THE REST OF THE
AREA WILL REMAIN DRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 445 PM EDT...SHOWERS WERE DEVELOPING JUST TO SOUTH OF
CATSKILLS AS ISENTROPIC LIFT WAS INCREASING. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUED TO DEVELOP OVER WEST VIRGINIA...WORKING ALONG A FRONT
STALLED JUST SOUTH OF THE NATION/S CAPITOL.

HIGH CLOUDS HAVE INCREASED ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION FURTHER NORTH
INTO ALL OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

TEMPERATURES REMAINDER COOLER THAN NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE
50S...TOUCHING 60 IN PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

TONIGHT...AS THIS LOW PRESSURE RIDES TO THE EAST...PATCHY LIGHT
SHOWERS OR RAIN SHOULD WORK THROUGH ABOUT THE I-84
CORRIDOR...PERHAPS A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH.

THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY BUT WITH PLENTY
CLOUDS. DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER...LOWS WILL HIGHER THAN LAST
NIGHT...GENERALLY INTO THE 30S...TO AROUND 40 FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD.
THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS OUR ADIRONDACKS WHERE THE CLOUD
COVER WILL BE THINNEST...ALLOWING FOR LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE VARIABLE TO NORTH AROUND 5 MPH OR LESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FRIDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL TRACK TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL
ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO BRIEFLY REBUILD BACK IN FROM THE NORTH ALONG
WITH DRIER AIR. THIS SHOULD END ANY RAIN BUT AN EASTERLY LOW AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE COULD KEEP CLOUDS PERSISTING IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES
JUST SOUTH OF ALBANY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 50S WITH A FEW "WARMER" SPOTS IN
AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION TOUCHING 60. THE WIND WILL VARIABLE
TO NORTHWEST 5-10 MPH.

ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH
FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING PERHAPS ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT RAIN TO AREAS
MAINLY FROM I-84 SOUTH.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE...STILL OVER THE HUDSON BAY REGION LOOK TO
BRING A DRY DAY WITH SOME SUNSHINE ACROSS MOST OF OUR REGION. THIS
SUNSHINE WILL BOLSTER TEMPERATURES A LITTLE...WITH VALLEY VALLEY
AREAS REACHING 60-65...MID TO UPPER 50S HIGHER TERRAIN.  THE WIND
LOOKS LIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO LOOK RATHER UNSETTLED AS A SERIES
OF DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE
PERCHED JUST TO OUR SOUTH.

THE FIRST ONE OF THESE WILL BEGIN TO ENCROACH ON THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. SATURDAY EVENING SHOULD REMAIN
DRY BUT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. OVERNIGHT...THE THREAT OF SHOWERS
WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT. WITH LOWS FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S...THESE SHOULD BE ALL IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAIN. IT IS POSSIBLE
A FEW ICE PELLETS OF WET SNOW FLAKES COULD MIX WELL NORTH OF ALBANY
AT TIMES BUT WITH NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.

THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL MOVE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. THERE IS
SOME DISCREPANCY IN HOW STRONG A SYSTEM THIS WILL BE. THE 12Z GFS
HAD A DEEPER SLOWER MOVING LOW PRESSURE AREAS...WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF
HAS A WEAK FASTER MOVING ONE. AT THIS POINT WE COMPROMISED BETWEEN
THE TWO SOLUTIONS...BUT EITHER WAY SOME RAIN IS A GOOD BET SUNDAY
INTO EARLY MONDAY.

WITH THE CLOUDS AND RAIN...TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY LOOK
TO BE HELD MAINLY TO THE 50S.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT LOOK MAINLY DRY ALTHOUGH ANOTHER WEAK
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH PERHAPS BRINGING A FEW SPRINKLES.
TEMPERATURES WITH ANY SUNSHINE LOOK TO REBOUND TO AROUND 60 IN THE
VALLEYS...MID TO UPPER 50S HIGHER TERRAIN. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
45 TO 50 WITH SOME LINGERING CLOUDS.

ANOTHER TROUGH LOOKS TO DIG SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA ON WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...SLINGING A FEW MORE DISTURBANCES OUR WAY. A SOUTHWEST
FLOW AHEAD OF THE IMPENDING COLD FRONT COULD SEND TEMPERATURES WELL
INTO THE 60S ACROSS MOST AREAS ON WEDNESDAY...COOLING A LITTLE ON
THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY HIGHS WILL BE BACK MAINLY IN THE 50S.

THE TIMING OF THESE DISTURBANCES AND ANY SURFACE FRONTS ARE NOT
CLEAR AT THIS TIME...SO WE WENT CHANCES BOTH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...SLIGHT CHANCES ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...18Z/FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDING SOUTHWARD FROM THE HUDSON BAY REGION...WILL
PROVIDE LOTS OF DRY AIR ACROSS MOST OF OUR REGION. A WEAK WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL RIPPLE TO THE SOUTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON COULD
BRING CHANCES OF SOME RAIN SHOWERS...MAINLY KPOU. AT THAT SITE...WE
INTRODUCE VCSH AT KPOU LATER THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER 03Z...WE HAVE A
PROB30 FOR SHOWERS REDUCING WEATHER CONDITIONS TO MVFR.

OTHERWISE VFR WILL DOMINATE.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE VARIABLE TO NORTHEAST AROUND 5KTS THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD.

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WITH A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BECOMING MORE NORTHEASTERLY ON FRIDAY...RH
VALUES SHOULD NOT DROP AS LOW AS RECENT DAYS. IN ADDITION...THERE
COULD BE A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN TONIGHT...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION OVERNIGHT...AND AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT.

RH VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE 30 PERCENT ON SATURDAY...MAINLY IN
THE 30S. THAT DAY LOOKS DRY EVERYWHERE.

THEN THERE COULD BE SOME RAIN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...PERHAPS QUARTER
INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL. RH VALUES LOOK TO BE ELEVATED BOTH THOSE
DAYS.

THERE IS STILL AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR MORE LIGHT SHOWERS
TUESDAY...WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE SHOWERS NEXT WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS ANOTHER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NORTHEAST.

THE SURFACE WIND TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WILL BE VARIABLE TO
NORTHEAST 5-10 MPH...BECOMING VARIABLE AT SIMILAR SPEEDS ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGY PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT FIVE
DAY ACROSS THE REGION.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION
WILL BE CHANCES FOR A ROUNDS OF FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA LATE TODAY INTO FRIDAY. WITH VERY
LITTLE QPF...THESE SHOWERS WILL HAVE NO EFFECT ON RIVER AND STREAM
LEVELS.

A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE AREA WITH RAINFALL
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TRACK...INTENSITY AND
TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM ARE STILL UNCERTAIN...ALTHOUGH A WIDESPREAD
SOAKING RAIN WOULD BE MAINLY BENEFICIAL DUE TO DRY ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS FOR THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/JPV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/JPV




000
FXUS61 KALY 282051
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
445 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND SOUTH FROM THE
HUDSON BAY REGION INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH FRIDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES MAY BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS TO
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA INTO FRIDAY...WHILE THE REST OF THE
AREA WILL REMAIN DRY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 445 PM EDT...SHOWERS WERE DEVELOPING JUST TO SOUTH OF
CATSKILLS AS ISENTROPIC LIFT WAS INCREASING. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUED TO DEVELOP OVER WEST VIRGINIA...WORKING ALONG A FRONT
STALLED JUST SOUTH OF THE NATION/S CAPITOL.

HIGH CLOUDS HAVE INCREASED ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION FURTHER NORTH
INTO ALL OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

TEMPERATURES REMAINDER COOLER THAN NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE
50S...TOUCHING 60 IN PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

TONIGHT...AS THIS LOW PRESSURE RIDES TO THE EAST...PATCHY LIGHT
SHOWERS OR RAIN SHOULD WORK THROUGH ABOUT THE I-84
CORRIDOR...PERHAPS A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH.

THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY BUT WITH PLENTY
CLOUDS. DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER...LOWS WILL HIGHER THAN LAST
NIGHT...GENERALLY INTO THE 30S...TO AROUND 40 FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD.
THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS OUR ADIRONDACKS WHERE THE CLOUD
COVER WILL BE THINNEST...ALLOWING FOR LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE VARIABLE TO NORTH AROUND 5 MPH OR LESS.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FRIDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL TRACK TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL
ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO BRIEFLY REBUILD BACK IN FROM THE NORTH ALONG
WITH DRIER AIR. THIS SHOULD END ANY RAIN BUT AN EASTERLY LOW AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE COULD KEEP CLOUDS PERSISTING IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES
JUST SOUTH OF ALBANY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 50S WITH A FEW "WARMER" SPOTS IN
AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION TOUCHING 60. THE WIND WILL VARIABLE
TO NORTHWEST 5-10 MPH.

ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH
FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING PERHAPS ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT RAIN TO AREAS
MAINLY FROM I-84 SOUTH.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE...STILL OVER THE HUDSON BAY REGION LOOK TO
BRING A DRY DAY WITH SOME SUNSHINE ACROSS MOST OF OUR REGION. THIS
SUNSHINE WILL BOLSTER TEMPERATURES A LITTLE...WITH VALLEY VALLEY
AREAS REACHING 60-65...MID TO UPPER 50S HIGHER TERRAIN.  THE WIND
LOOKS LIGHT.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO LOOK RATHER UNSETTLED AS A SERIES
OF DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE
PERCHED JUST TO OUR SOUTH.

THE FIRST ONE OF THESE WILL BEGIN TO ENCROACH ON THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. SATURDAY EVENING SHOULD REMAIN
DRY BUT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. OVERNIGHT...THE THREAT OF SHOWERS
WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT. WITH LOWS FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S...THESE SHOULD BE ALL IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAIN. IT IS POSSIBLE
A FEW ICE PELLETS OF WET SNOW FLAKES COULD MIX WELL NORTH OF ALBANY
AT TIMES BUT WITH NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.

THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL MOVE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. THERE IS
SOME DISCREPANCY IN HOW STRONG A SYSTEM THIS WILL BE. THE 12Z GFS
HAD A DEEPER SLOWER MOVING LOW PRESSURE AREAS...WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF
HAS A WEAK FASTER MOVING ONE. AT THIS POINT WE COMPROMISED BETWEEN
THE TWO SOLUTIONS...BUT EITHER WAY SOME RAIN IS A GOOD BET SUNDAY
INTO EARLY MONDAY.

WITH THE CLOUDS AND RAIN...TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY LOOK
TO BE HELD MAINLY TO THE 50S.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT LOOK MAINLY DRY ALTHOUGH ANOTHER WEAK
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH PERHAPS BRINGING A FEW SPRINKLES.
TEMPERATURES WITH ANY SUNSHINE LOOK TO REBOUND TO AROUND 60 IN THE
VALLEYS...MID TO UPPER 50S HIGHER TERRAIN. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
45 TO 50 WITH SOME LINGERING CLOUDS.

ANOTHER TROUGH LOOKS TO DIG SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA ON WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...SLINGING A FEW MORE DISTURBANCES OUR WAY. A SOUTHWEST
FLOW AHEAD OF THE IMPENDING COLD FRONT COULD SEND TEMPERATURES WELL
INTO THE 60S ACROSS MOST AREAS ON WEDNESDAY...COOLING A LITTLE ON
THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY HIGHS WILL BE BACK MAINLY IN THE 50S.

THE TIMING OF THESE DISTURBANCES AND ANY SURFACE FRONTS ARE NOT
CLEAR AT THIS TIME...SO WE WENT CHANCES BOTH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...SLIGHT CHANCES ON FRIDAY.
&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...18Z/FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDING SOUTHWARD FROM THE HUDSON BAY REGION...WILL
PROVIDE LOTS OF DRY AIR ACROSS MOST OF OUR REGION. A WEAK WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL RIPPLE TO THE SOUTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON COULD
BRING CHANCES OF SOME RAIN SHOWERS...MAINLY KPOU. AT THAT SITE...WE
INTRODUCE VCSH AT KPOU LATER THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER 03Z...WE HAVE A
PROB30 FOR SHOWERS REDUCING WEATHER CONDITIONS TO MVFR.

OTHERWISE VFR WILL DOMINATE.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE VARIABLE TO NORTHEAST AROUND 5KTS THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD.


OUTLOOK...

FRI NIGHT-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SAT NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC RA.
SUN NIGHT-MON: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WITH A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BECOMING MORE NORTHEASTERLY ON FRIDAY...RH
VALUES SHOULD NOT DROP AS LOW AS RECENT DAYS. IN ADDITION...THERE
COULD BE A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN TONIGHT...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION OVERNIGHT...AND AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT.

RH VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE 30 PERCENT ON SATURDAY...MAINLY IN
THE 30S. THAT DAY LOOKS DRY EVERYWHERE.

THEN THERE COULD BE SOME RAIN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...PERHAPS QUARTER
INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL. RH VALUES LOOK TO BE ELEVATED BOTH THOSE
DAYS.

THERE IS STILL AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR MORE LIGHT SHOWERS
TUESDAY...WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE SHOWERS NEXT WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS ANOTHER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NORTHEAST.

THE SURFACE WIND TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WILL BE VARIABLE TO
NORTHEAST 5-10 MPH...BECOMING VARIABLE AT SIMILAR SPEEDS ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGY PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT FIVE
DAY ACROSS THE REGION.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION
WILL BE CHANCES FOR A ROUNDS OF FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA LATE TODAY INTO FRIDAY. WITH VERY
LITTLE QPF...THESE SHOWERS WILL HAVE NO EFFECT ON RIVER AND STREAM
LEVELS.

A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE AREA WITH RAINFALL
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TRACK...INTENSITY AND
TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM ARE STILL UNCERTAIN...ALTHOUGH A WIDESPREAD
SOAKING RAIN WOULD BE MAINLY BENEFICIAL DUE TO DRY ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS FOR THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/JPV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/JPV




000
FXUS61 KALY 282051
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
445 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND SOUTH FROM THE
HUDSON BAY REGION INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH FRIDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES MAY BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS TO
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA INTO FRIDAY...WHILE THE REST OF THE
AREA WILL REMAIN DRY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 445 PM EDT...SHOWERS WERE DEVELOPING JUST TO SOUTH OF
CATSKILLS AS ISENTROPIC LIFT WAS INCREASING. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUED TO DEVELOP OVER WEST VIRGINIA...WORKING ALONG A FRONT
STALLED JUST SOUTH OF THE NATION/S CAPITOL.

HIGH CLOUDS HAVE INCREASED ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION FURTHER NORTH
INTO ALL OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

TEMPERATURES REMAINDER COOLER THAN NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE
50S...TOUCHING 60 IN PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

TONIGHT...AS THIS LOW PRESSURE RIDES TO THE EAST...PATCHY LIGHT
SHOWERS OR RAIN SHOULD WORK THROUGH ABOUT THE I-84
CORRIDOR...PERHAPS A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH.

THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY BUT WITH PLENTY
CLOUDS. DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER...LOWS WILL HIGHER THAN LAST
NIGHT...GENERALLY INTO THE 30S...TO AROUND 40 FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD.
THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS OUR ADIRONDACKS WHERE THE CLOUD
COVER WILL BE THINNEST...ALLOWING FOR LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE VARIABLE TO NORTH AROUND 5 MPH OR LESS.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FRIDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL TRACK TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL
ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO BRIEFLY REBUILD BACK IN FROM THE NORTH ALONG
WITH DRIER AIR. THIS SHOULD END ANY RAIN BUT AN EASTERLY LOW AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE COULD KEEP CLOUDS PERSISTING IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES
JUST SOUTH OF ALBANY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 50S WITH A FEW "WARMER" SPOTS IN
AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION TOUCHING 60. THE WIND WILL VARIABLE
TO NORTHWEST 5-10 MPH.

ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH
FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING PERHAPS ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT RAIN TO AREAS
MAINLY FROM I-84 SOUTH.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE...STILL OVER THE HUDSON BAY REGION LOOK TO
BRING A DRY DAY WITH SOME SUNSHINE ACROSS MOST OF OUR REGION. THIS
SUNSHINE WILL BOLSTER TEMPERATURES A LITTLE...WITH VALLEY VALLEY
AREAS REACHING 60-65...MID TO UPPER 50S HIGHER TERRAIN.  THE WIND
LOOKS LIGHT.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO LOOK RATHER UNSETTLED AS A SERIES
OF DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE
PERCHED JUST TO OUR SOUTH.

THE FIRST ONE OF THESE WILL BEGIN TO ENCROACH ON THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. SATURDAY EVENING SHOULD REMAIN
DRY BUT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. OVERNIGHT...THE THREAT OF SHOWERS
WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT. WITH LOWS FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S...THESE SHOULD BE ALL IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAIN. IT IS POSSIBLE
A FEW ICE PELLETS OF WET SNOW FLAKES COULD MIX WELL NORTH OF ALBANY
AT TIMES BUT WITH NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.

THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL MOVE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. THERE IS
SOME DISCREPANCY IN HOW STRONG A SYSTEM THIS WILL BE. THE 12Z GFS
HAD A DEEPER SLOWER MOVING LOW PRESSURE AREAS...WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF
HAS A WEAK FASTER MOVING ONE. AT THIS POINT WE COMPROMISED BETWEEN
THE TWO SOLUTIONS...BUT EITHER WAY SOME RAIN IS A GOOD BET SUNDAY
INTO EARLY MONDAY.

WITH THE CLOUDS AND RAIN...TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY LOOK
TO BE HELD MAINLY TO THE 50S.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT LOOK MAINLY DRY ALTHOUGH ANOTHER WEAK
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH PERHAPS BRINGING A FEW SPRINKLES.
TEMPERATURES WITH ANY SUNSHINE LOOK TO REBOUND TO AROUND 60 IN THE
VALLEYS...MID TO UPPER 50S HIGHER TERRAIN. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
45 TO 50 WITH SOME LINGERING CLOUDS.

ANOTHER TROUGH LOOKS TO DIG SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA ON WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...SLINGING A FEW MORE DISTURBANCES OUR WAY. A SOUTHWEST
FLOW AHEAD OF THE IMPENDING COLD FRONT COULD SEND TEMPERATURES WELL
INTO THE 60S ACROSS MOST AREAS ON WEDNESDAY...COOLING A LITTLE ON
THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY HIGHS WILL BE BACK MAINLY IN THE 50S.

THE TIMING OF THESE DISTURBANCES AND ANY SURFACE FRONTS ARE NOT
CLEAR AT THIS TIME...SO WE WENT CHANCES BOTH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...SLIGHT CHANCES ON FRIDAY.
&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...18Z/FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDING SOUTHWARD FROM THE HUDSON BAY REGION...WILL
PROVIDE LOTS OF DRY AIR ACROSS MOST OF OUR REGION. A WEAK WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL RIPPLE TO THE SOUTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON COULD
BRING CHANCES OF SOME RAIN SHOWERS...MAINLY KPOU. AT THAT SITE...WE
INTRODUCE VCSH AT KPOU LATER THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER 03Z...WE HAVE A
PROB30 FOR SHOWERS REDUCING WEATHER CONDITIONS TO MVFR.

OTHERWISE VFR WILL DOMINATE.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE VARIABLE TO NORTHEAST AROUND 5KTS THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD.


OUTLOOK...

FRI NIGHT-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SAT NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC RA.
SUN NIGHT-MON: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WITH A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BECOMING MORE NORTHEASTERLY ON FRIDAY...RH
VALUES SHOULD NOT DROP AS LOW AS RECENT DAYS. IN ADDITION...THERE
COULD BE A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN TONIGHT...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION OVERNIGHT...AND AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT.

RH VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE 30 PERCENT ON SATURDAY...MAINLY IN
THE 30S. THAT DAY LOOKS DRY EVERYWHERE.

THEN THERE COULD BE SOME RAIN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...PERHAPS QUARTER
INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL. RH VALUES LOOK TO BE ELEVATED BOTH THOSE
DAYS.

THERE IS STILL AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR MORE LIGHT SHOWERS
TUESDAY...WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE SHOWERS NEXT WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS ANOTHER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NORTHEAST.

THE SURFACE WIND TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WILL BE VARIABLE TO
NORTHEAST 5-10 MPH...BECOMING VARIABLE AT SIMILAR SPEEDS ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGY PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT FIVE
DAY ACROSS THE REGION.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION
WILL BE CHANCES FOR A ROUNDS OF FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA LATE TODAY INTO FRIDAY. WITH VERY
LITTLE QPF...THESE SHOWERS WILL HAVE NO EFFECT ON RIVER AND STREAM
LEVELS.

A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE AREA WITH RAINFALL
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TRACK...INTENSITY AND
TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM ARE STILL UNCERTAIN...ALTHOUGH A WIDESPREAD
SOAKING RAIN WOULD BE MAINLY BENEFICIAL DUE TO DRY ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS FOR THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/JPV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/JPV




000
FXUS61 KALY 282051
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
445 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND SOUTH FROM THE
HUDSON BAY REGION INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH FRIDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES MAY BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS TO
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA INTO FRIDAY...WHILE THE REST OF THE
AREA WILL REMAIN DRY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 445 PM EDT...SHOWERS WERE DEVELOPING JUST TO SOUTH OF
CATSKILLS AS ISENTROPIC LIFT WAS INCREASING. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUED TO DEVELOP OVER WEST VIRGINIA...WORKING ALONG A FRONT
STALLED JUST SOUTH OF THE NATION/S CAPITOL.

HIGH CLOUDS HAVE INCREASED ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION FURTHER NORTH
INTO ALL OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

TEMPERATURES REMAINDER COOLER THAN NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE
50S...TOUCHING 60 IN PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

TONIGHT...AS THIS LOW PRESSURE RIDES TO THE EAST...PATCHY LIGHT
SHOWERS OR RAIN SHOULD WORK THROUGH ABOUT THE I-84
CORRIDOR...PERHAPS A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH.

THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY BUT WITH PLENTY
CLOUDS. DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER...LOWS WILL HIGHER THAN LAST
NIGHT...GENERALLY INTO THE 30S...TO AROUND 40 FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD.
THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS OUR ADIRONDACKS WHERE THE CLOUD
COVER WILL BE THINNEST...ALLOWING FOR LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE VARIABLE TO NORTH AROUND 5 MPH OR LESS.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FRIDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL TRACK TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL
ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO BRIEFLY REBUILD BACK IN FROM THE NORTH ALONG
WITH DRIER AIR. THIS SHOULD END ANY RAIN BUT AN EASTERLY LOW AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE COULD KEEP CLOUDS PERSISTING IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES
JUST SOUTH OF ALBANY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 50S WITH A FEW "WARMER" SPOTS IN
AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION TOUCHING 60. THE WIND WILL VARIABLE
TO NORTHWEST 5-10 MPH.

ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH
FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING PERHAPS ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT RAIN TO AREAS
MAINLY FROM I-84 SOUTH.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE...STILL OVER THE HUDSON BAY REGION LOOK TO
BRING A DRY DAY WITH SOME SUNSHINE ACROSS MOST OF OUR REGION. THIS
SUNSHINE WILL BOLSTER TEMPERATURES A LITTLE...WITH VALLEY VALLEY
AREAS REACHING 60-65...MID TO UPPER 50S HIGHER TERRAIN.  THE WIND
LOOKS LIGHT.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO LOOK RATHER UNSETTLED AS A SERIES
OF DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE
PERCHED JUST TO OUR SOUTH.

THE FIRST ONE OF THESE WILL BEGIN TO ENCROACH ON THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. SATURDAY EVENING SHOULD REMAIN
DRY BUT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. OVERNIGHT...THE THREAT OF SHOWERS
WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT. WITH LOWS FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S...THESE SHOULD BE ALL IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAIN. IT IS POSSIBLE
A FEW ICE PELLETS OF WET SNOW FLAKES COULD MIX WELL NORTH OF ALBANY
AT TIMES BUT WITH NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.

THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL MOVE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. THERE IS
SOME DISCREPANCY IN HOW STRONG A SYSTEM THIS WILL BE. THE 12Z GFS
HAD A DEEPER SLOWER MOVING LOW PRESSURE AREAS...WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF
HAS A WEAK FASTER MOVING ONE. AT THIS POINT WE COMPROMISED BETWEEN
THE TWO SOLUTIONS...BUT EITHER WAY SOME RAIN IS A GOOD BET SUNDAY
INTO EARLY MONDAY.

WITH THE CLOUDS AND RAIN...TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY LOOK
TO BE HELD MAINLY TO THE 50S.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT LOOK MAINLY DRY ALTHOUGH ANOTHER WEAK
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH PERHAPS BRINGING A FEW SPRINKLES.
TEMPERATURES WITH ANY SUNSHINE LOOK TO REBOUND TO AROUND 60 IN THE
VALLEYS...MID TO UPPER 50S HIGHER TERRAIN. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
45 TO 50 WITH SOME LINGERING CLOUDS.

ANOTHER TROUGH LOOKS TO DIG SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA ON WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...SLINGING A FEW MORE DISTURBANCES OUR WAY. A SOUTHWEST
FLOW AHEAD OF THE IMPENDING COLD FRONT COULD SEND TEMPERATURES WELL
INTO THE 60S ACROSS MOST AREAS ON WEDNESDAY...COOLING A LITTLE ON
THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY HIGHS WILL BE BACK MAINLY IN THE 50S.

THE TIMING OF THESE DISTURBANCES AND ANY SURFACE FRONTS ARE NOT
CLEAR AT THIS TIME...SO WE WENT CHANCES BOTH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...SLIGHT CHANCES ON FRIDAY.
&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...18Z/FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDING SOUTHWARD FROM THE HUDSON BAY REGION...WILL
PROVIDE LOTS OF DRY AIR ACROSS MOST OF OUR REGION. A WEAK WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL RIPPLE TO THE SOUTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON COULD
BRING CHANCES OF SOME RAIN SHOWERS...MAINLY KPOU. AT THAT SITE...WE
INTRODUCE VCSH AT KPOU LATER THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER 03Z...WE HAVE A
PROB30 FOR SHOWERS REDUCING WEATHER CONDITIONS TO MVFR.

OTHERWISE VFR WILL DOMINATE.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE VARIABLE TO NORTHEAST AROUND 5KTS THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD.


OUTLOOK...

FRI NIGHT-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SAT NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC RA.
SUN NIGHT-MON: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WITH A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BECOMING MORE NORTHEASTERLY ON FRIDAY...RH
VALUES SHOULD NOT DROP AS LOW AS RECENT DAYS. IN ADDITION...THERE
COULD BE A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN TONIGHT...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION OVERNIGHT...AND AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT.

RH VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE 30 PERCENT ON SATURDAY...MAINLY IN
THE 30S. THAT DAY LOOKS DRY EVERYWHERE.

THEN THERE COULD BE SOME RAIN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...PERHAPS QUARTER
INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL. RH VALUES LOOK TO BE ELEVATED BOTH THOSE
DAYS.

THERE IS STILL AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR MORE LIGHT SHOWERS
TUESDAY...WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE SHOWERS NEXT WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS ANOTHER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NORTHEAST.

THE SURFACE WIND TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WILL BE VARIABLE TO
NORTHEAST 5-10 MPH...BECOMING VARIABLE AT SIMILAR SPEEDS ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGY PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT FIVE
DAY ACROSS THE REGION.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION
WILL BE CHANCES FOR A ROUNDS OF FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA LATE TODAY INTO FRIDAY. WITH VERY
LITTLE QPF...THESE SHOWERS WILL HAVE NO EFFECT ON RIVER AND STREAM
LEVELS.

A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE AREA WITH RAINFALL
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TRACK...INTENSITY AND
TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM ARE STILL UNCERTAIN...ALTHOUGH A WIDESPREAD
SOAKING RAIN WOULD BE MAINLY BENEFICIAL DUE TO DRY ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS FOR THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/JPV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/JPV




000
FXUS61 KALY 282051
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
445 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND SOUTH FROM THE
HUDSON BAY REGION INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH FRIDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES MAY BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS TO
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA INTO FRIDAY...WHILE THE REST OF THE
AREA WILL REMAIN DRY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 445 PM EDT...SHOWERS WERE DEVELOPING JUST TO SOUTH OF
CATSKILLS AS ISENTROPIC LIFT WAS INCREASING. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUED TO DEVELOP OVER WEST VIRGINIA...WORKING ALONG A FRONT
STALLED JUST SOUTH OF THE NATION/S CAPITOL.

HIGH CLOUDS HAVE INCREASED ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION FURTHER NORTH
INTO ALL OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

TEMPERATURES REMAINDER COOLER THAN NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE
50S...TOUCHING 60 IN PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

TONIGHT...AS THIS LOW PRESSURE RIDES TO THE EAST...PATCHY LIGHT
SHOWERS OR RAIN SHOULD WORK THROUGH ABOUT THE I-84
CORRIDOR...PERHAPS A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH.

THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY BUT WITH PLENTY
CLOUDS. DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER...LOWS WILL HIGHER THAN LAST
NIGHT...GENERALLY INTO THE 30S...TO AROUND 40 FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD.
THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS OUR ADIRONDACKS WHERE THE CLOUD
COVER WILL BE THINNEST...ALLOWING FOR LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE VARIABLE TO NORTH AROUND 5 MPH OR LESS.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FRIDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL TRACK TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL
ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO BRIEFLY REBUILD BACK IN FROM THE NORTH ALONG
WITH DRIER AIR. THIS SHOULD END ANY RAIN BUT AN EASTERLY LOW AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE COULD KEEP CLOUDS PERSISTING IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES
JUST SOUTH OF ALBANY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 50S WITH A FEW "WARMER" SPOTS IN
AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION TOUCHING 60. THE WIND WILL VARIABLE
TO NORTHWEST 5-10 MPH.

ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH
FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING PERHAPS ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT RAIN TO AREAS
MAINLY FROM I-84 SOUTH.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE...STILL OVER THE HUDSON BAY REGION LOOK TO
BRING A DRY DAY WITH SOME SUNSHINE ACROSS MOST OF OUR REGION. THIS
SUNSHINE WILL BOLSTER TEMPERATURES A LITTLE...WITH VALLEY VALLEY
AREAS REACHING 60-65...MID TO UPPER 50S HIGHER TERRAIN.  THE WIND
LOOKS LIGHT.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO LOOK RATHER UNSETTLED AS A SERIES
OF DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE
PERCHED JUST TO OUR SOUTH.

THE FIRST ONE OF THESE WILL BEGIN TO ENCROACH ON THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. SATURDAY EVENING SHOULD REMAIN
DRY BUT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. OVERNIGHT...THE THREAT OF SHOWERS
WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT. WITH LOWS FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S...THESE SHOULD BE ALL IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAIN. IT IS POSSIBLE
A FEW ICE PELLETS OF WET SNOW FLAKES COULD MIX WELL NORTH OF ALBANY
AT TIMES BUT WITH NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.

THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL MOVE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. THERE IS
SOME DISCREPANCY IN HOW STRONG A SYSTEM THIS WILL BE. THE 12Z GFS
HAD A DEEPER SLOWER MOVING LOW PRESSURE AREAS...WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF
HAS A WEAK FASTER MOVING ONE. AT THIS POINT WE COMPROMISED BETWEEN
THE TWO SOLUTIONS...BUT EITHER WAY SOME RAIN IS A GOOD BET SUNDAY
INTO EARLY MONDAY.

WITH THE CLOUDS AND RAIN...TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY LOOK
TO BE HELD MAINLY TO THE 50S.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT LOOK MAINLY DRY ALTHOUGH ANOTHER WEAK
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH PERHAPS BRINGING A FEW SPRINKLES.
TEMPERATURES WITH ANY SUNSHINE LOOK TO REBOUND TO AROUND 60 IN THE
VALLEYS...MID TO UPPER 50S HIGHER TERRAIN. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
45 TO 50 WITH SOME LINGERING CLOUDS.

ANOTHER TROUGH LOOKS TO DIG SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA ON WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...SLINGING A FEW MORE DISTURBANCES OUR WAY. A SOUTHWEST
FLOW AHEAD OF THE IMPENDING COLD FRONT COULD SEND TEMPERATURES WELL
INTO THE 60S ACROSS MOST AREAS ON WEDNESDAY...COOLING A LITTLE ON
THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY HIGHS WILL BE BACK MAINLY IN THE 50S.

THE TIMING OF THESE DISTURBANCES AND ANY SURFACE FRONTS ARE NOT
CLEAR AT THIS TIME...SO WE WENT CHANCES BOTH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...SLIGHT CHANCES ON FRIDAY.
&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...18Z/FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDING SOUTHWARD FROM THE HUDSON BAY REGION...WILL
PROVIDE LOTS OF DRY AIR ACROSS MOST OF OUR REGION. A WEAK WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL RIPPLE TO THE SOUTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON COULD
BRING CHANCES OF SOME RAIN SHOWERS...MAINLY KPOU. AT THAT SITE...WE
INTRODUCE VCSH AT KPOU LATER THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER 03Z...WE HAVE A
PROB30 FOR SHOWERS REDUCING WEATHER CONDITIONS TO MVFR.

OTHERWISE VFR WILL DOMINATE.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE VARIABLE TO NORTHEAST AROUND 5KTS THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD.


OUTLOOK...

FRI NIGHT-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SAT NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC RA.
SUN NIGHT-MON: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WITH A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BECOMING MORE NORTHEASTERLY ON FRIDAY...RH
VALUES SHOULD NOT DROP AS LOW AS RECENT DAYS. IN ADDITION...THERE
COULD BE A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN TONIGHT...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION OVERNIGHT...AND AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT.

RH VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE 30 PERCENT ON SATURDAY...MAINLY IN
THE 30S. THAT DAY LOOKS DRY EVERYWHERE.

THEN THERE COULD BE SOME RAIN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...PERHAPS QUARTER
INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL. RH VALUES LOOK TO BE ELEVATED BOTH THOSE
DAYS.

THERE IS STILL AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR MORE LIGHT SHOWERS
TUESDAY...WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE SHOWERS NEXT WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS ANOTHER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NORTHEAST.

THE SURFACE WIND TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WILL BE VARIABLE TO
NORTHEAST 5-10 MPH...BECOMING VARIABLE AT SIMILAR SPEEDS ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGY PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT FIVE
DAY ACROSS THE REGION.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION
WILL BE CHANCES FOR A ROUNDS OF FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA LATE TODAY INTO FRIDAY. WITH VERY
LITTLE QPF...THESE SHOWERS WILL HAVE NO EFFECT ON RIVER AND STREAM
LEVELS.

A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE AREA WITH RAINFALL
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TRACK...INTENSITY AND
TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM ARE STILL UNCERTAIN...ALTHOUGH A WIDESPREAD
SOAKING RAIN WOULD BE MAINLY BENEFICIAL DUE TO DRY ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS FOR THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/JPV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/JPV




000
FXUS61 KBOX 282003
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
403 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF WEAK LOWS WILL TRACK SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT
THROUGH FRI NIGHT...POSSIBLY BRINGING A PERIOD OR TWO OF LIGHT
RAIN/SPRINKLES TO CONNECTICUT AND SOUTH COASTAL RHODE ISLAND.
OTHERWISE REMAINDER OF THE REGION REMAINS DRY THANKS TO HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL CANADA TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
THIS WILL YIELD MILD AFTERNOONS AND CHILLY NIGHTS. A RETURN TO
UNSETTLED AND COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS TO THE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. A DRYING TREND
FOLLOWS TUESDAY...HOWEVER MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE MID
TO LATE NEXT WEEK AS A NEW AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY FORM ALONG OR
NEAR THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

3 PM UPDATE...

CLOUDS THICKENING FROM THE S/W UP AGAINST HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY-
SINKING AIR. THIS ACTIVITY PARENT WITH MID LEVEL VORTEX ENERGY
STRETCHING THROUGH THE CONFLUENT FLOW PATTERN ACROSS AND TO THE E
OF NEW ENGLAND. INTO THIS EVENING ONLY EXPECTING THICKENING CLOUDS
OVER S NEW ENGLAND AND REMAINING MOSTLY DRY. THERE IS THE PRESENCE
OF SOME MID LEVEL FORCING ALLOWING FOR LIFT OF UPSLOPING MOISTURE
RESULTING IN RADAR RETURNS AT HIGHER LEVELS OVER THE LOWER HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY. WHILE AN ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR...CAN NOT RULE OUT IT
REACHING THE GROUND. WILL HINT CHANCE POPS OVER THE HARTFORD METRO
AND POINTS S/W.

TONIGHT...

WHERE CAN WE EXPECT TO SEE CLOUDS AND WET WEATHER? CONFIDENCE IS
TOWARDS THE S/W WHERE THE MID-UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE RELAXES IN A
REGIME OF WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND SOME MID-LEVEL FORCING PARENT
WITH STRETCHED VORTEX ENERGY. ANY OUTCOMES WOULD BE LIGHT MAINLY
OVER S/W CT N OF A W TO E FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE DELMARVA / NJ
COASTLINE. NOT A ROBUST EVENT. HARDLY A WASHOUT. THINKING NUISANCE.
SPRINKLES TO VERY LIGHT SHOWERS. FOCUS MAINLY SW CT. DRY ELSEWHERE
PER ACCOMPANYING AIRMASS AND SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH TO N.
NON-NAM CONSENSUS.

SO OVERALL A MOSTLY DRY AND QUIET NIGHT FOR MUCH OF S NEW ENGLAND.
INCREASING AND THICKENING CLOUDS FROM THE S/W. SUBSEQUENTLY MILDER
WITH LOWS AROUND THE UPPER 30S S BUT COOLER N UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS UNDER LESS CLOUDS. CAN NOT RULE OUT
RADIATIONAL COOLING ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN AND WITHIN INTERIOR
VALLEYS OF N MASSACHUSETTS WHICH COULD DRIVE LOWS DOWN TO THE UPPER
20S IF CONDITIONS ARE RIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

FRIDAY...

KEEPING IT DRY WITH CLOUDS LINGERING. POTENT MID LEVEL VORTEX OUT OF
THE S GREAT LAKES INVOKES WEAK LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS
TOWARDS THE DELMARVA LATE. ISALLOBARIC RESPONSE MAINTAINS DRY AIR
AND HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND WITH A COMPONENT OF
DOWN-SLOPING AIR AND SUBSIDENCE THROUGH THE LOW LEVELS. CONSIDERING
THE E ONSHORE FLOW AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF CLOUDS LINGERING MAY NUDGE
A FEW DEGREES LOWER ON HIGHS FORECAST AROUND THE UPPER 50S.

FRIDAY NIGHT...

RENEWED FOCUS OF LIGHT SHOWERY WEATHER S/W. VORTEX AND ACCOMPANYING
SURFACE LOW EMERGING OFF THE DELMARVA WITH PARENT JET ENERGY AND
DYNAMICS. CRUX OF FORCING / ISENTROPIC ASCENT SLIDES S OF THE REGION
AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR REMAIN INFLUENTIAL N/E WITH SINKING AIR
IN THE LOW LEVELS. AM CONFIDENT THAT SW CT COULD SEE LIGHT SHOWERS.
MAJORITY OF WET WEATHER WILL STAY S AND OFFSHORE. MAJORITY OF THE
ACTIVITY DURING THE EVENING WITH CLOUDS IN GREATER ABUNDANCE S/W.

SO OVERALL A DRY FORECAST FOR MUCH OF S NEW ENGLAND. A CLEARING
TREND WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN AND SINKING AIR BY
MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS TURNING
LIGHT WITH CLEARING...COULD SEE SOME PLACES RADIATE OUT DECENTLY AS
LOWS DROP INTO THE 30S. FOCUS MAINLY N/E ESPECIALLY WITH SANDY
SOILS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY AND MILD SATURDAY W/HIGHS 60-65...50S ALONG THE COAST
* COOLER WITH PERIODS OF RAIN SUN AND MON
* DRYING TREND LIKELY TUE ALONG WITH MILDER TEMPS
* MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK

SATURDAY ... WEAK MID LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE AREA PROVIDES
SURFACE RIDGING AND DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION. THUS EXPECT LOTS
OF SUNSHINE. 850 TEMPS HOVERING AROUND 0C BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE A DEEP BLYR WITH MIXING UP TO 800 MB OR SO. THEREFORE HIGHS
60-65 SEEM ACHIEVABLE INLAND WITH SEABREEZES ALONG THE COAST KEEPING
TEMPS IN THE 50S NEAR SHORE. OVERALL A REAL NICE DAY BY LATE APRIL
STANDARDS.

SUN INTO MON ... MODELS CONTINUE TO SPEED UP THE ARRIVAL OF MOISTURE
INTO NEW ENGLAND ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE 4
CORNERS REGION AND DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS FASTER TREND SEEMS
REASONABLE GIVEN THE UPPER AIR PATTERN FEATURES CONFLUENT FLOW
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. SUNDAY MAY BEGIN DRY ESPECIALLY ACROSS RI AND
EASTERN MA WHERE ALL GUID INCLUDING THE NEW 12Z ECMWF AND 12Z UKMET
HAVE PRECIP JUST CROSSING THE NY/WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BORDER AT 12Z
SUNDAY. HOWEVER WITH THE FAST CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT RAIN WILL LIKELY
OVERSPREAD THE AREA QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH STILL
TOO FAR OUT IN TIME TO NAIL DOWN SPECIFIC TIMING. AS PREVIOUS
FORECASTER MENTIONED WITH SURFACE WAVE TRACKING SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND
THE COMBINATION OF NE WINDS OFF THE CHILLY OCEAN COMBINED WITH
PERIODS OF RAIN WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO THE U40S AND L50S...POSSIBLY
COOLER. THEREFORE HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WERE DERIVED FROM THE
COOLER 2 METER MODEL TEMPS VS. THE MILDER MOS TEMPS. COOLEST
READINGS LIKELY ACROSS CT AND WESTERN-CENTRAL MA GIVEN DRY WEATHER
MAY LINGER FOR A TIME ACROSS RI AND EASTERN MA EARLY SUNDAY.

TUE ... SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER AFTER SUN/MON RAIN EVENT
WITH MEAN TROUGH AXIS MOVING OFFSHORE. GIVEN ENSEMBLE MEAN 850 TEMPS
OVER THE AREA ARE AROUND +2C/+3C AND SURFACE PRESSURES NEAR 1015
MB...FULL SUNSHINE COULD POTENTIALLY YIELD HIGHS BACK INTO THE 60S
INLAND TUE. OF COURSE COOLER NEAR THE COAST GIVEN WEAK PGRAD
SUPPORTING POTENTIAL SEABREEZES.

WED INTO THU ... LOOKS UNSETTLED AS ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE SUGGEST MEAN TROUGH RELOADS WITH NEW JET ENERGY OVER
SOUTHEAST CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE
LARGE SCALE FLOW FEATURES A POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY OVER THE ROCKIES
AND A CORRESPONDING DOWNSTREAM NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY OVER HUDSON
BAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT EAST COAST TROUGHING AND POTENTIAL UNSETTLED
WEATHER HERE IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS/PERIODS OF RAIN. COOLER TOO
GIVEN CLOUDS/PRECIP AND NORTHEAST FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. LOW RISK MVFR ACROSS S/W CT TONIGHT AND
AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT. E/SE FLOW TONIGHT BECOMING MORE E AND BREEZY
INTO FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND BACKING N INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.

KBOS TERMINAL...VFR. SEA-BREEZE ASHORE. FLOW TO REMAIN E THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING. STRONGEST DURING THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING HOURS ON
FRIDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...VFR.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SAT ... HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR CIGS.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS WITH MVFR
AND LOCALIZED IFR POSSIBLE IN PERIODS OF RAIN.

TUESDAY ... DRYING TREND WITH VFR POSSIBLE AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS DOMINANT.
THERE IS A LOW RISK OF RAIN SHOWERS ON THE S WATERS CLOSER TO
BLOCK / LONG ISLAND TONIGHT AND AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT.

E/SE FLOW BECOMING BREEZY INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
POSSIBLE GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS DURING WHICH TIME ISOLATED 5 FOOT
SEAS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WATERS S OF ISLANDS. WINDS BACK NE INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SATURDAY ... QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS AND TRANQUIL
SEAS.

SUNDAY INTO MON ... INCREASING EASTERLY WINDS LATE SUN INTO MON AS
LOW PRES TRACKS TO THE SOUTH. A PERIOD OF SCA GUSTS POSSIBLE SUN
NIGHT INTO MON DEPENDING ON TRACK AND INTENSITY OF LOW PRES. ROUGH
SEAS GIVEN THE LONG ENE FETCH. VSBYS REDUCED AT TIMES IN SHOWERS AND
PATCHY FOG.

TUESDAY ... IMPROVING/DRYING TREND. LEFTOVER ENE SWELLS LIKELY FOR
THE OCEAN WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
MARINE...NOCERA/SIPPRELL




000
FXUS61 KOKX 282002
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
402 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST THROUGH FRIDAY...WHILE
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...AND WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE PASS EAST OFF THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE ON
SATURDAY WILL THEN GIVE WAY TO LOW PRESSURE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...
FOLLOWED BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
BAND OF LIGHT RAIN AHEAD OF WEAK UPPER TROUGH IS APPROACHING FROM
NE PA AND CENTRAL NJ AND HOLDING TOGETHER FAIRLY WELL...SO HAVE
FCST LIKELY POP FOR THIS EVENING FOR NYC METRO AND THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY. RADAR RETURNS OVER NORTHERN PA CONFIRM EARLIER
THINKING THAT ENHANCED LIFT FROM COMBO OF THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF
AN UPPER JET STREAK AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND H7 FRONTOGENESIS
SHOULD IMPACT MAINLY INLAND SECTIONS THIS EVENING...SO HAVE
CONTINUED WITH LIKELY POP THERE. PRECIP SHOULD THEN TAPER OFF
OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S NYC...LOWER 40S IN
SURROUNDING AREAS...AND UPPER 30S INLAND AND ACROSS ERN LONG
ISLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
EXPECT CLOUDS TO REMAIN AROUND THROUGH THE DAY ON FRI...WITH ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES THROUGH THE DAY
EXCEPT OUT EAST. CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT HIGH TEMPS MAINLY TO THE
LOWER AND MID 50S.

VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BRING
LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS FRI EVENING FROM NYC METRO NORTH/WEST...
WITH LOWER CHANCES FARTHER EAST. COULD BE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING
LATE FRI NIGHT AS A WEAK DEEP LAYER RIDGE BUILDS IN ITS WAKE.
LOW TEMPS SIMILAR TO THOSE EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENERAL TROUGHINESS NOTED THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. DETAILS IN
HANDLING OF VARIOUS UPPER SHORTWAVES UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...BUT
OVERALL PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS...AND AT LEAST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD.

IN GENERAL...DRY WX EXPECTED SATURDAY.

UNSETTLED...WET WX POSSIBLE SUNDAY-MONDAY.

DRY FOR THE MOST PART TUE AND WED...ALTHOUGH A FEW POP UP SHOWERS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THURSDAY DUE TO POSSIBLE SOUTHERN
STREAM ENERGY APPROACHING...WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE PASSING
OFFSHORE AND A COLD FRONT THAT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND A
STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT RAIN APPROACHING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. WHILE
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AREA-WIDE...THE BEST CHANCE FOR STEADIER RAIN
IS OVER THE CITY TERMINALS AND ALONG THE CONNECTICUT COAST. ANY RAIN
COMES TO AN END EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 10KT OR LESS TO
START...BECOMING NORTHEASTERLY TONIGHT. WINDS THEN CONTINUE TO VEER
TO THE EAST DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: START TIME OF LIGHT RAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON
COULD BE OFF BY 1-2 HOURS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: START TIME OF LIGHT RAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON
COULD BE OFF BY 1-2 HOURS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: START TIME OF LIGHT RAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON
COULD BE OFF BY 1-2 HOURS.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: START TIME OF LIGHT RAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON
COULD BE OFF BY 1-2 HOURS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: START TIME OF LIGHT RAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON
COULD BE OFF BY 1-2 HOURS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: START TIME OF LIGHT RAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON
COULD BE OFF BY 1-2 HOURS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRI NIGHT...VFR. CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON OR EARLY FRIDAY EVENING.
.SAT...VFR.
.SUN THROUGH MON...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN RAIN.
.TUE...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
QUIET TONIGHT...THEN ENE FLOW INCREASING TO NEAR 20 KT SHOULD
BUILD OCEAN SEAS TO MINIMAL SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE DAY FRI.
SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS ISSUED AS FLOW SHOULD BE STEADY...WITH
GUSTS AOA 25 KT NOT EXPECTED. OCEAN SEAS SUBSIDE BY FRI NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE ON SATURDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO LOW PRESSURE AND AN
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY. INCREASING
EASTERLY FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED...EVENTUALLY SHIFTING TO THE N AND
NW BEHIND THE LOW MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. SCA CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS OCEAN SEAS BUILD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ONLY UP TO 1/4 INCH OF RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH FRI NIGHT.
NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WOULD BE SATURDAY NIGHT...CONTINUING THROUGH
MONDAY...AND TAPERING OFF MONDAY NIGHT. RAIN AMOUNTS CARRY
UNCERTAINTY...BUT MODELS ARE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR UP TO AN
INCH OF RAIN.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM EDT
     FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/PW
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...FEB
MARINE...GOODMAN/PW
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/PW




000
FXUS61 KBOX 281903
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
303 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

 * UPDATES TO NEAR AND SHORT TERM FORECAST PORTIONS ONLY...

HIGH PRESSURE FROM CENTRAL CANADA TO NEW ENGLAND WILL BE IN CONTROL
THROUGH SATURDAY...YIELDING DRY WEATHER WITH MILD AFTERNOONS AND
CHILLY NIGHTS. A RETURN TO COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TO THE SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND...THEN IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOLLOW TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

3 PM UPDATE...

CLOUDS THICKENING FROM THE S/W UP AGAINST HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY-
SINKING AIR. THIS ACTIVITY PARENT WITH MID LEVEL VORTEX ENERGY
STRETCHING THROUGH THE CONFLUENT FLOW PATTERN ACROSS AND TO THE E
OF NEW ENGLAND. INTO THIS EVENING ONLY EXPECTING THICKENING CLOUDS
OVER S NEW ENGLAND AND REMAINING MOSTLY DRY. THERE IS THE PRESENCE
OF SOME MID LEVEL FORCING ALLOWING FOR LIFT OF UPSLOPING MOISTURE
RESULTING IN RADAR RETURNS AT HIGHER LEVELS OVER THE LOWER HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY. WHILE AN ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR...CAN NOT RULE OUT IT
REACHING THE GROUND. WILL HINT CHANCE POPS OVER THE HARTFORD METRO
AND POINTS S/W.

TONIGHT...

WHERE CAN WE EXPECT TO SEE CLOUDS AND WET WEATHER? CONFIDENCE IS
TOWARDS THE S/W WHERE THE MID-UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE RELAXES IN A
REGIME OF WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND SOME MID-LEVEL FORCING PARENT
WITH STRETCHED VORTEX ENERGY. ANY OUTCOMES WOULD BE LIGHT MAINLY
OVER S/W CT N OF A W TO E FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE DELMARVA / NJ
COASTLINE. NOT A ROBUST EVENT. HARDLY A WASHOUT. THINKING NUISANCE.
SPRINKLES TO VERY LIGHT SHOWERS. FOCUS MAINLY SW CT. DRY ELSEWHERE
PER ACCOMPANYING AIRMASS AND SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH TO N.
NON-NAM CONSENSUS.

SO OVERALL A MOSTLY DRY AND QUIET NIGHT FOR MUCH OF S NEW ENGLAND.
INCREASING AND THICKENING CLOUDS FROM THE S/W. SUBSEQUENTLY MILDER
WITH LOWS AROUND THE UPPER 30S S BUT COOLER N UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS UNDER LESS CLOUDS. CAN NOT RULE OUT
RADIATIONAL COOLING ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN AND WITHIN INTERIOR
VALLEYS OF N MASSACHUSETTS WHICH COULD DRIVE LOWS DOWN TO THE UPPER
20S IF CONDITIONS ARE RIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

FRIDAY...

KEEPING IT DRY WITH CLOUDS LINGERING. POTENT MID LEVEL VORTEX OUT OF
THE S GREAT LAKES INVOKES WEAK LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS
TOWARDS THE DELMARVA LATE. ISALLOBARIC RESPONSE MAINTAINS DRY AIR
AND HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND WITH A COMPONENT OF
DOWN-SLOPING AIR AND SUBSIDENCE THROUGH THE LOW LEVELS. CONSIDERING
THE E ONSHORE FLOW AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF CLOUDS LINGERING MAY NUDGE
A FEW DEGREES LOWER ON HIGHS FORECAST AROUND THE UPPER 50S.

FRIDAY NIGHT...

RENEWED FOCUS OF LIGHT SHOWERY WEATHER S/W. VORTEX AND ACCOMPANYING
SURFACE LOW EMERGING OFF THE DELMARVA WITH PARENT JET ENERGY AND
DYNAMICS. CRUX OF FORCING / ISENTROPIC ASCENT SLIDES S OF THE REGION
AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR REMAIN INFLUENTIAL N/E WITH SINKING AIR
IN THE LOW LEVELS. AM CONFIDENT THAT SW CT COULD SEE LIGHT SHOWERS.
MAJORITY OF WET WEATHER WILL STAY S AND OFFSHORE. MAJORITY OF THE
ACTIVITY DURING THE EVENING WITH CLOUDS IN GREATER ABUNDANCE S/W.

SO OVERALL A DRY FORECAST FOR MUCH OF S NEW ENGLAND. A CLEARING
TREND WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN AND SINKING AIR BY
MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS TURNING
LIGHT WITH CLEARING...COULD SEE SOME PLACES RADIATE OUT DECENTLY AS
LOWS DROP INTO THE 30S. FOCUS MAINLY N/E ESPECIALLY WITH SANDY
SOILS.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS AWAY FROM THE COAST SAT
* COOLER WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER SUN/MON
* IMPROVING CONDITIONS TUE WITH MILDER TEMPS

OVERVIEW...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON DEVELOPMENT OF GREAT
LAKES MID LEVEL TROF LATE IN THE WEEKEND WHICH EVENTUALLY AMPLIFIES
DURING EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ROTATE THROUGH.
TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THE INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES IS UNCERTAIN BUT
GENERAL THEME WILL BE A TREND TOWARD COOLER UNSETTLED WEATHER SUN
INTO MON AS BOUNDARY SETS UP TO THE SOUTH WITH MOIST LOW LEVEL
EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING AS LOW PRES TRACKS S OF NEW ENG.
IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED TUE BUT IT IS UNCERTAIN IF MILD AND DRY
WEATHER HANGS ON INTO WED AS ANOTHER LOW PRES MAY BE LURKING JUST
OFFSHORE.

DETAILS...

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND MOVING OFF NJ
COAST FRI NIGHT WILL TRIGGER AN AREA OF SHOWERS MOSTLY SW OF NEW ENG
BUT THERE IS A CHANCE THE NORTHERN EDGE COULD CLIP PORTIONS OF CT
INTO S RI FRI EVENING. THEN MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATER FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT AS HIGH PRES IN CONTROL. TEMPS SAT WILL REACH INTO
THE 60S INTERIOR LOCATIONS BUT SEABREEZES WILL HOLD TEMPS IN THE 50S
NEAR THE COAST.

SUN INTO MON...
MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A COOLER AND WETTER SCENARIO WITH
OVERRUNNING OF SFC BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH AS LOW PRES TRACKS TO THE
SOUTH. TIMING OF STEADIEST RAINFALL IS UNCERTAIN AND WHILE IT WON/T
BE RAINING ALL THE TIME...EXPECT PERIODS OF SHOWERS SUN INTO MON AND
POPS WERE INCREASED ACCORDINGLY. LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT
IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND LATER FORECASTS MAY NEED TO LOWER TEMPS
FURTHER. COULD SEE DAYTIME TEMPS HOLDING IN THE 40S ACROSS INTERIOR.

TUE INTO WED...
LOOKS MOSTLY DRY AND MILDER TUE AS LOW PRES DEPARTS BUT STILL CANT
RULE OUT A BRIEF SHOWER AS MID LEVEL TROF REMAINS TO THE WEST WITH
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH. LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST WED. GFS IS
DRY AND MILD WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW BUT ECMWF HAS LOW PRES JUST
OFFSHORE WITH RAIN THREATENING AT LEAST THE COAST WITH COOL NE FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. LOW RISK MVFR ACROSS S/W CT TONIGHT AND
AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT. E/SE FLOW TONIGHT BECOMING MORE E AND BREEZY
INTO FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND BACKING N INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.

KBOS TERMINAL...VFR. SEA-BREEZE ASHORE. FLOW TO REMAIN E THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING. STRONGEST DURING THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING HOURS ON
FRIDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...VFR.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. DETERIORATING CONDITIONS
WITH MVFR AND LOCALIZED IFR POSSIBLE WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS DOMINANT.
THERE IS A LOW RISK OF RAIN SHOWERS ON THE S WATERS CLOSER TO
BLOCK / LONG ISLAND TONIGHT AND AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT.

E/SE FLOW BECOMING BREEZY INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
POSSIBLE GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS DURING WHICH TIME ISOLATED 5 FOOT
SEAS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WATERS S OF ISLANDS. WINDS BACK NE INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SATURDAY...QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA.

SUNDAY INTO MON...INCREASING EASTERLY WINDS LATE SUN INTO MON AS LOW
PRES TRACKS TO THE SOUTH. A PERIOD OF SCA GUSTS POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT
INTO MON DEPENDING ON TRACK AND INTENSITY OF LOW PRES. VSBYS
REDUCED AT TIMES IN SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KJC/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/SIPPRELL
MARINE...KJC/SIPPRELL




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