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000
FXUS61 KALY 211507
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1007 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...
BRINGING SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW TO PARTS OF EASTERN NEW YORK
AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. MOSTLY CLOUDY AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH SOME LIGHT
MIXED PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT...AND A PERIOD OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 10 AM EST...VERY LIGHT SNOW GRAINS HAVE SPREAD NORTH AND WEST
INTO THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION...AND REMAIN FOR AREAS TO THE S
AND E. ACCUMS HAVE BEEN VERY LIGHT DUE TO THE GRAINY
NATURE...GENERALLY ONLY ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH AND WEST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...COMBINED WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO
THE SOUTH...SHOULD KEEP LIGHT SNOW GRAINS/FLURRIES ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH AT LEAST NOON BEFORE DIMINISHING FROM NW TO SE.
AGAIN...ANY ACCUMS SHOULD BE A COATING TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH.

DESPITE HOW LIGHT THE SNOW IS...HAVE HAD REPORTS OF SLIPPERY
TRAVEL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY EARLIER THIS
MORNING. THIS MAY ALSO BE THE CASE FURTHER N AND W INTO THE
CAPITAL REGION...SO HAVE ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
THROUGH NOON TO ADDRESS THIS POTENTIAL.

OTHERWISE...THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION DESCRIBES THE
SYNOPTIC/MESOSCALE SITUATION...

LITTLE LOW LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SEEN ON KOKX RADAR JUST SOUTH OF
EASTERN LONG ISLAND...ASSOCIATED WITH SOME WEAK UPPER ENERGY
TRACKING OFFSHORE. ANOTHER WEAK UPPER IMPULSE IN THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES...WITH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS TRACKING INTO OUR
REGION THROUGH THE DAY. LIGHT SNOW HAS SPREAD INLAND INTO PARTS OF
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
TACONICS... ALTHOUGH THE MOISTURE IS SO SHALLOW AND AT SUCH LOW
LEVELS...AREA RADARS ARE NOT FULLY PICKING UP ON THE AREAL EXTENT
AND INTENSITY OF THE SNOW.

SOME GUIDANCE IS RESOLVING THESE SMALL SCALE FEATURES AND
SUGGESTING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW IN PARTS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...SOUTHERN TACONICS...NW CT AND THE SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES.
SO...HIGH CHANCES TO LIKELY IN SOME AREAS THROUGH THIS MORNING IN
THOSE AREAS.

SOME LIGHT SNOW GRAINS/FLURRIES EVEN INTO THE MOHAWK
VALLEY...CAPITAL DISTRICT AND EASTERN CATSKILLS...WITH CHANCES FOR
BRIEF INTERVALS OF LIGHT SNOW IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN TACONICS AND NORTHERN BERKSHIRES. WITH ALL THE CLOUD
COVER THROUGH THE DAY... HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ON THE COOLER
SIDE OF GUIDANCE. HIGHS AROUND 30 TO THE MID 30S...SOME 20S IN
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SOME
BRIEF BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS...BUT NOT ENOUGH
TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP MUCH. WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT
WINDS...LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S...SOME UPPER TEENS IN THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. WARM ADVECTION SLOWLY STRENGTHENS THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARMING. LIGHT
WIND FLOW THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO
MIX OUT CLOUD COVER...BUT SOUTHERLY WINDS COULD HELP ANY CLEARING
TO THE SOUTH SPREAD SLOWLY NORTH...UNTIL THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING SYSTEM FROM THE WEST SPREAD OVER
THE REGION. STILL...WITH ALL THE CLOUD COVER...HIGHS MONDAY IN THE
30S.

SOUTHERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW SLOWLY INCREASES MONDAY NIGHT AS
DOES WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. LOW LEVEL RIDGING IS
EXPECTED TO BE ANCHORED IN SE CANADA...SO SURFACE FLOW SHOULD BE
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST. AGEOSTROPHIC LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE EAST
AND NORTHEAST SUGGEST THAT ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THAT DEVELOPS
IN THE REGION COULD HELP TEMPERATURES FALL TO WET BULB LEVELS...
WHICH WOULD SUPPORT SNOW AND/OR MIXED PRECIPITATION IN SOME
AREAS...INCLUDING A CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT ION THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S...JUST ABOVE FREEZING
IN MUCH OF THE HUDSON VALLEY...BUT POTENTIALLY CLOSE TO FREEZING
IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. NO WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES YET...WITH
JUST CHANCES FOR FREEZING RAIN BUT WILL INCLUDE IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK BECAUSE HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED IF FREEZING RAIN
BECOMES LIKELY IN SOME AREAS AS THE EVENT NEARS.

ALL PRECIPITATION TRENDS TO ALL RAIN TUESDAY AND SLOWLY INCREASES
IN COVERAGE THROUGH TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS WARM ADVECTION
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT STRENGTHEN. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 40S...BUT
AROUND 40 IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE
MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ACTIVE AND CHANGEABLE WEATHER EXPECTED FROM CHRISTMAS EVE TO
CHRISTMAS DAY...AS A STORM STORM SYSTEM WITH POSSIBLE MULTIPLE
HAZARDS AFFECTS THE REGION. THE MAIN IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS. WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE A MAIN HAZARD WITH THIS SYSTEM.

BY CHRISTMAS EVE DAY OUR REGION SHOULD BE FIRMLY ESTABLISHED IN A
WARM SECTOR ASSOCIATED WITH A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN. A DEEP
TROUGH WILL BE ADVANCING EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...MIDWEST AND TENN VALLEY REGIONS...WITH A RIDGE AXIS
POSITIONED ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AN ANOMALOUSLY WARM AND
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW BOTH IN THE LOW LEVELS AND ALOFT WILL BE IN
PLACE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. DESPITE EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE CLOSE TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH
LOWER TO MID 50S FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY SOUTH AND EAST.

SOUTHERLY WIND FIELD WILL BE INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
STRONG WINDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND AREAS
SUSCEPTIBLE TO SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW. HOW STRONG WIND SPEEDS END UP
IN VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL DEPEND ON DEGREE OF MIXING. SURGES OF
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION WILL LEAD TO OCCASIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL...WITH PWATS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO +4 TO +5 STDEV BY LATE
WEDNESDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG WITH SNOW MELT IN HIGHER TERRAIN
COULD LEAD TO SOME FLOODING. SEE HYDRO SECTION FOR DETAILS.

THERE ARE MODEL DISCREPANCIES WITH REGARDS TO TIMING...TRACK AND
STRENGTH OF THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE AREA...BUT THERE IS AT LEAST
GENERAL CONSENSUS THAT THAT LOW WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST
AND DEEPEN IN THE PROCESS. A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE LOW LOOKS
TO CROSS OUR REGION FROM WEST TO EAST SOMETIME EARLY CHRISTMAS
MORNING. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BURST
OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. STEADY RAINFALL WILL TAPER OFF TO
SCATTERED VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS CHRISTMAS
MORNING. AS THE LOW DEEPENS FURTHER ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON
CHRISTMAS DAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIALLY STRONG WINDS COULD BE
MORE WIDESPREAD IN THE WESTERLY FLOW WITH BETTER MIXING. HIGH TEMPS
WILL LIKELY OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY ON CHRISTMAS...WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE DEVELOPING BRISK WESTERLY WIND.

OTHER THAN A FEW UPSLOPE/LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FOR THE REST OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL TURN MUCH COLDER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS...BUT WILL STILL BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. A WEAKER DISTURBANCE WITH LIMITED MOISTURE
MAY BRING SOME RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WITH LIGHT QPF.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS SOUTHEAST QUEBEC
AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD IN BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TONIGHT.

SOLID BATCH OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...WITH CIGS IN MVFR
RANGE. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO BRUSH THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA...OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 16Z-18Z FOR KALB/KPOU/KPSF
WITH MVFR VSBY/CIGS. LESS MOISTURE ANTICIPATED FARTHER NORTH
AROUND KGFL...SO WILL ONLY MENTION VCSH THERE. CIGS EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE TO VFR RANGE AFTER 18Z...EXCEPT FOR KPSF WHERE MVFR CIGS
SHOULD PREVAIL. CLOUDS MAY TEND TO BREAK UP TOWARDS EVENING...BUT
EXPECTING BKN CIGS TO PREVAIL.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY LESS THAN 5 KTS THROUGH PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. DEFINITE RA.
CHRISTMAS DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 0.75 INCH TO 1.5 INCHES ARE LIKELY ALONG WITH
SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT WHICH RAISES THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING
AND SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES OF LARGER STEM RIVERS. MMEFS
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE BEST CHANCES FOR MINOR FLOODING WOULD BE
FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY THROUGH WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. IT IS TOO
EARLY TO ISSUE ANY FLOOD WATCHES...HOWEVER WILL MENTION IN THE HWO
AT THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...KL/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...NAS







000
FXUS61 KALY 211507
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1007 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...
BRINGING SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW TO PARTS OF EASTERN NEW YORK
AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. MOSTLY CLOUDY AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH SOME LIGHT
MIXED PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT...AND A PERIOD OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 10 AM EST...VERY LIGHT SNOW GRAINS HAVE SPREAD NORTH AND WEST
INTO THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION...AND REMAIN FOR AREAS TO THE S
AND E. ACCUMS HAVE BEEN VERY LIGHT DUE TO THE GRAINY
NATURE...GENERALLY ONLY ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH AND WEST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...COMBINED WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO
THE SOUTH...SHOULD KEEP LIGHT SNOW GRAINS/FLURRIES ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH AT LEAST NOON BEFORE DIMINISHING FROM NW TO SE.
AGAIN...ANY ACCUMS SHOULD BE A COATING TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH.

DESPITE HOW LIGHT THE SNOW IS...HAVE HAD REPORTS OF SLIPPERY
TRAVEL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY EARLIER THIS
MORNING. THIS MAY ALSO BE THE CASE FURTHER N AND W INTO THE
CAPITAL REGION...SO HAVE ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
THROUGH NOON TO ADDRESS THIS POTENTIAL.

OTHERWISE...THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION DESCRIBES THE
SYNOPTIC/MESOSCALE SITUATION...

LITTLE LOW LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SEEN ON KOKX RADAR JUST SOUTH OF
EASTERN LONG ISLAND...ASSOCIATED WITH SOME WEAK UPPER ENERGY
TRACKING OFFSHORE. ANOTHER WEAK UPPER IMPULSE IN THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES...WITH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS TRACKING INTO OUR
REGION THROUGH THE DAY. LIGHT SNOW HAS SPREAD INLAND INTO PARTS OF
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
TACONICS... ALTHOUGH THE MOISTURE IS SO SHALLOW AND AT SUCH LOW
LEVELS...AREA RADARS ARE NOT FULLY PICKING UP ON THE AREAL EXTENT
AND INTENSITY OF THE SNOW.

SOME GUIDANCE IS RESOLVING THESE SMALL SCALE FEATURES AND
SUGGESTING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW IN PARTS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...SOUTHERN TACONICS...NW CT AND THE SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES.
SO...HIGH CHANCES TO LIKELY IN SOME AREAS THROUGH THIS MORNING IN
THOSE AREAS.

SOME LIGHT SNOW GRAINS/FLURRIES EVEN INTO THE MOHAWK
VALLEY...CAPITAL DISTRICT AND EASTERN CATSKILLS...WITH CHANCES FOR
BRIEF INTERVALS OF LIGHT SNOW IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN TACONICS AND NORTHERN BERKSHIRES. WITH ALL THE CLOUD
COVER THROUGH THE DAY... HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ON THE COOLER
SIDE OF GUIDANCE. HIGHS AROUND 30 TO THE MID 30S...SOME 20S IN
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SOME
BRIEF BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS...BUT NOT ENOUGH
TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP MUCH. WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT
WINDS...LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S...SOME UPPER TEENS IN THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. WARM ADVECTION SLOWLY STRENGTHENS THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARMING. LIGHT
WIND FLOW THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO
MIX OUT CLOUD COVER...BUT SOUTHERLY WINDS COULD HELP ANY CLEARING
TO THE SOUTH SPREAD SLOWLY NORTH...UNTIL THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING SYSTEM FROM THE WEST SPREAD OVER
THE REGION. STILL...WITH ALL THE CLOUD COVER...HIGHS MONDAY IN THE
30S.

SOUTHERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW SLOWLY INCREASES MONDAY NIGHT AS
DOES WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. LOW LEVEL RIDGING IS
EXPECTED TO BE ANCHORED IN SE CANADA...SO SURFACE FLOW SHOULD BE
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST. AGEOSTROPHIC LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE EAST
AND NORTHEAST SUGGEST THAT ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THAT DEVELOPS
IN THE REGION COULD HELP TEMPERATURES FALL TO WET BULB LEVELS...
WHICH WOULD SUPPORT SNOW AND/OR MIXED PRECIPITATION IN SOME
AREAS...INCLUDING A CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT ION THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S...JUST ABOVE FREEZING
IN MUCH OF THE HUDSON VALLEY...BUT POTENTIALLY CLOSE TO FREEZING
IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. NO WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES YET...WITH
JUST CHANCES FOR FREEZING RAIN BUT WILL INCLUDE IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK BECAUSE HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED IF FREEZING RAIN
BECOMES LIKELY IN SOME AREAS AS THE EVENT NEARS.

ALL PRECIPITATION TRENDS TO ALL RAIN TUESDAY AND SLOWLY INCREASES
IN COVERAGE THROUGH TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS WARM ADVECTION
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT STRENGTHEN. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 40S...BUT
AROUND 40 IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE
MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ACTIVE AND CHANGEABLE WEATHER EXPECTED FROM CHRISTMAS EVE TO
CHRISTMAS DAY...AS A STORM STORM SYSTEM WITH POSSIBLE MULTIPLE
HAZARDS AFFECTS THE REGION. THE MAIN IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS. WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE A MAIN HAZARD WITH THIS SYSTEM.

BY CHRISTMAS EVE DAY OUR REGION SHOULD BE FIRMLY ESTABLISHED IN A
WARM SECTOR ASSOCIATED WITH A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN. A DEEP
TROUGH WILL BE ADVANCING EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...MIDWEST AND TENN VALLEY REGIONS...WITH A RIDGE AXIS
POSITIONED ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AN ANOMALOUSLY WARM AND
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW BOTH IN THE LOW LEVELS AND ALOFT WILL BE IN
PLACE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. DESPITE EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE CLOSE TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH
LOWER TO MID 50S FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY SOUTH AND EAST.

SOUTHERLY WIND FIELD WILL BE INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
STRONG WINDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND AREAS
SUSCEPTIBLE TO SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW. HOW STRONG WIND SPEEDS END UP
IN VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL DEPEND ON DEGREE OF MIXING. SURGES OF
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION WILL LEAD TO OCCASIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL...WITH PWATS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO +4 TO +5 STDEV BY LATE
WEDNESDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG WITH SNOW MELT IN HIGHER TERRAIN
COULD LEAD TO SOME FLOODING. SEE HYDRO SECTION FOR DETAILS.

THERE ARE MODEL DISCREPANCIES WITH REGARDS TO TIMING...TRACK AND
STRENGTH OF THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE AREA...BUT THERE IS AT LEAST
GENERAL CONSENSUS THAT THAT LOW WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST
AND DEEPEN IN THE PROCESS. A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE LOW LOOKS
TO CROSS OUR REGION FROM WEST TO EAST SOMETIME EARLY CHRISTMAS
MORNING. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BURST
OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. STEADY RAINFALL WILL TAPER OFF TO
SCATTERED VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS CHRISTMAS
MORNING. AS THE LOW DEEPENS FURTHER ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON
CHRISTMAS DAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIALLY STRONG WINDS COULD BE
MORE WIDESPREAD IN THE WESTERLY FLOW WITH BETTER MIXING. HIGH TEMPS
WILL LIKELY OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY ON CHRISTMAS...WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE DEVELOPING BRISK WESTERLY WIND.

OTHER THAN A FEW UPSLOPE/LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FOR THE REST OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL TURN MUCH COLDER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS...BUT WILL STILL BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. A WEAKER DISTURBANCE WITH LIMITED MOISTURE
MAY BRING SOME RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WITH LIGHT QPF.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS SOUTHEAST QUEBEC
AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD IN BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TONIGHT.

SOLID BATCH OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...WITH CIGS IN MVFR
RANGE. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO BRUSH THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA...OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 16Z-18Z FOR KALB/KPOU/KPSF
WITH MVFR VSBY/CIGS. LESS MOISTURE ANTICIPATED FARTHER NORTH
AROUND KGFL...SO WILL ONLY MENTION VCSH THERE. CIGS EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE TO VFR RANGE AFTER 18Z...EXCEPT FOR KPSF WHERE MVFR CIGS
SHOULD PREVAIL. CLOUDS MAY TEND TO BREAK UP TOWARDS EVENING...BUT
EXPECTING BKN CIGS TO PREVAIL.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY LESS THAN 5 KTS THROUGH PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. DEFINITE RA.
CHRISTMAS DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 0.75 INCH TO 1.5 INCHES ARE LIKELY ALONG WITH
SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT WHICH RAISES THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING
AND SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES OF LARGER STEM RIVERS. MMEFS
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE BEST CHANCES FOR MINOR FLOODING WOULD BE
FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY THROUGH WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. IT IS TOO
EARLY TO ISSUE ANY FLOOD WATCHES...HOWEVER WILL MENTION IN THE HWO
AT THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...KL/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...NAS







  [top]

000
FXUS61 KBOX 211452
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
952 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND BRINGING ANOTHER
PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. A MUCH STRONGER
STORM PASSING WEST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING HEAVY RAINFALL...
GUSTY WINDS AND COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRY BUT VERY WINDY CONDITIONS FOLLOW FOR
CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THIS MORNING. MOST OF THESE ARE TOO LIGHT EVEN TO SHOW UP
ON RADAR BUT THEY ARE BEING REPORTED IN GROUND TRUTH REPORTS FROM
SOCIAL MEDIA AND THE PUBLIC.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THE RAIN/SNOW LINE RUNS ROUGHLY FROM NEWPORT...TO TAUNTON AND
JUST NORTH OF MARSHFIELD. OVERALL...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH CHANGE IN
THE RAIN/SNOW LINE THIS MORNING BASED ON THERMAL PROFILES AND
POSITIONING OF THE COASTAL FRONT.

MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS JUST HOW MUCH SNOW OCCURS THIS MORNING WITH THE
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS CT.  GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE...BEST
FORCING WILL BE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE AND ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHERN CT/RI.  WE WILL FORECAST 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW
ACROSS THIS REGION...BUT A FEW ISOLATED 3 INCH AMOUNTS CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT. MEANWHILE...AREAS NORTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE WILL BE
REMOVED FROM THE BEST FORCING...BUT STILL SEE SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS.  ACCUMS IN THIS AREA LIKELY TO BE A DUSTING TO LESS THAN AN
INCH.

ALSO...SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MA IS
BEING ENHANCED FROM THE COASTAL FRONT.  A LOT OF THIS PRECIP WILL
BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS PLYMOUTH AND EVEN INTO
PORTIONS OF BRISTOL COUNTY...POINTS SOUTH AND EAST.  HOWEVER...AT
LEAST THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHEAST MA SHOULD SEE SNOW
SHOWERS.  WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON IF COASTAL FRONT SHIFTS
SLIGHTLY THIS MORNING.  IT COULD MEAN THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN AN AREA
GETTING MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS OR PERHAPS AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW.
OVERALL...DO NOT EXPECT THE COASTAL FRONT TO MOVE TOO MUCH THIS
MORNING...BUT JUST A FEW MILES CAN MAKE DIFFERENCE FOR A
PARTICULARLY NEIGHBORHOOD.

BULK OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE THIS MORNING WITH THE SHORTWAVE.
HOWEVER...ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/WEAK LIFT WILL REMAIN THIS
AFTERNOON FOR AT LEAST THIS RISK OF SCATTERED PRECIPITATION AND WILL
MAINTAIN SOME POPS.  HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...

A RATHER CLOUDY AND RAW NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  WHILE
THERE IS NOT A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TO TRIGGER A LOT OF
PRECIPITATION...PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/WEAK SHALLOW LIFT
REMAINS.  THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWER
FROM TIME TO TIME.  PTYPE...WOULD BE MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS EXCEPT TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF A NEWPORT...TO TAUNTON...TO JUST NORTH OF
MARSHFIELD LINE.  AGAIN...MUCH OF THE NIGHT WILL PROBABLY END UP
DRY...BUT JUST THE RISK FOR A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* WEAK SHORTWAVE ON MON NIGHT/TUESDAY COULD BRING WINTRY
  MIX/FREEZING RAIN TO THE INTERIOR
* ANOMALOUS SYSTEM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING HEAVY
  RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS AROUND CHRISTMAS
  EVE
* BLUSTERY BUT AIRMASS WILL BE DRYING OUT ON CHRISTMAS DAY

OVERVIEW...

THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES OFFER A REASONABLY SIMILAR AND PREDICTABLE
LARGER SCALE MID TO UPPER LEVEL PATTERN EVOLUTION FOR MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK. THIS ACTIVE FLOW REGIME DEVELOPS SEVERAL MID-UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED/UNSETTLING LEAD SURFACE LOW/FRONTAL
SYSTEMS AND PCPN SWATHS PROGRESS STEADILY ACROSS THE LOWER 48. THE
FIRST AMPLIFIED/DEEP LEAD SYSTEM WORKS ACROSS THE ERN/NERN US INTO
ERN CANADA CHRISTMAS EVE INTO CHRISTMAS ALLOWING FOR A MOIST/WARMED
AIRMASS IN ADVANCE OF FRONTAL APPROACH WITH HEAVIEST LEAD QPF
POTENTIAL OVER NEW ENGLAND. BIGGEST QUESTION IS THE EVOLUTION OF THE
SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. 00Z GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON THE
STRENGTH OF THE LOW AND IS HAVING ISSUES ON HOW TO HANDLE ITS
EVOLUTION. THE EC AND GFS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE SYSTEM SLIGHTLY WITH
THE EC HAVING MORE OF A NEGATIVE TROUGH VS THE GFS. BELIEVE THE
UKMET IS A GOOD COMPROMISE AT IS WAS THE FIRST DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE ON TAMPERING DOWN THE FIRST MAIN LOW...WHILE THE CMC IS OUT
TO LUNCH. REGARDLESS THIS IS A VERY ANOMALOUS SYSTEM THAT IS ABOUT 4
STANDARD DEVIATIONS AWAY.

A SECONDARY SYSTEM DEEPENS ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS ON FRIDAY AND
WITH THE STUBBORN TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S...IT WILL PUSH A
SYSTEM TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM MAY
SUPPORT A MODEST SWATH OF OVERRUNNING SNOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.

DETAILS...

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST
MONDAY...AND WILL BE ON A DEVELOPING WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS LOW
REMAINS WEAK AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES SLOWLY NORTH MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. APPEARS THAT THERE IS DECENT WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS
WAVE. SEVERAL HI-RES GUIDANCE MODELS SHOW THAT THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR COLD AIR DAMMING ACROSS THE INTERIOR INTO TUESDAY.
BIGGEST QUESTION WILL BE IS THERE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR PRECIP DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. DUE TO A STRENGTHENING LLJ PROVIDING A GOOD SOURCE OF
LIFT ANTICIPATE PRECIP TO DEVELOP AND OVERSPREAD ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. IF THIS PLAYS OUT WITH COLD AIR DAMMING AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION...THEN WE COULD SEE FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE ACROSS THE I-91
CORRIDOR LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY...GOOD AMOUNT OF WARM AIR WILL PUSH SURFACE TEMPS ABOVE
FREEZING BY THE LATE MORNING ALLOWING FOR ANY PRECIP TO BE MORE OF
THE LIQUID VARIETY AHEAD OF THE CHRISTMAS EVE STORM. HOWEVER
GUIDANCE IS ALWAYS TOO FAST IN SCOURING TEMPS OUT ESP ACROSS THE CT
VALLEY SO WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS CLOSELY...ESP DUE TO LIGHT
WINDS AND THE HIGH IN EASTERN CANADA. A WINTER WX ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED FOR THE LIGHT ICING POTENTIAL.

WE COULD ALSO SEE SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS ON TUESDAY. SEE
BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SYSTEM LOW CONFIDENCE
ON DETAILS.

ANOMALOUS SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE WILL ROUND THE DEEP TROUGH AND
DEVELOP A SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THIS
SECONDARY LOW WILL STRENGTHEN AND PASS WEST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES TOWARDS EASTERN
CANADA SWINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.

STRONG SOUTHERLY JET OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH A GULF MOISTURE
CONNECTION WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON CHRISTMAS EVE. THIS
STRONG JET WILL YIELD FOR PCPN IN THE LIQUID VARIETY.  PW ANOMALIES
ARE BETWEEN +4 TO +5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL WHICH IS QUITE
ANOMALOUS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. IN FACT CURRENT PWATS ARE PROGGED
ABOVE 1.6 INCHES WITH MODEL QPF OVER 2 INCHES...AT THE VERY LEAST
COULD SEE URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. LATEST EC EVEN SHOWS
OVER 2.5 INCHES OF QPF...AND WITH THE TROPICAL CONNECTION AND STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW COULD SEE HIGHER AMOUNTS DUE TO TOPOGRAPHY
ENHANCEMENTS. RAINFALL RECORDS MAY FALL IF EVERYTHING FALLS INTO
PLACE.

AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL WARM SECTOR WED INTO
THUR MORNING ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. IN
FACT WE MAY BE CLOSE AT BREAKING RECORD HIGH TEMPS IF TEMPS WARM TO
60F OR ABOVE ON CHRISTMAS EVE. SINCE WE WILL BE IN THE WARM
SECTOR...AND SHOWALTERS CLOSE TO ZERO...ISOLATED THUNDER IS STILL
POSSIBLE.

STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE ECMWF SHOWS EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS 30-40 KNOTS ON WEDNESDAY
INCREASING TO 60-75 KNOTS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STRONG DOWNPOURS MAY
OVERCOME THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION AND BRING STRONG GUSTS OF AT LEAST
30-40 KNOTS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED IN SOME AREAS.

CHRISTMAS DAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH EARLY CHRISTMAS DAY...THE WEST
WINDS WILL HELP DRY THE AIRMASS ALLOWING FOR PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.
STRONG CAA ON THURSDAY WILL ALLOW DESCENT MIXING. WINDS IN THE SFC-
850 MB LAYER WILL BE 30-40 KNOTS AND POSSIBLY A LITTLE
HIGHER...WHICH WOULD REQUIRE A WIND ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

FRIDAY-SUNDAY...LOWER CONFIDENCE

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AND SHOULD BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND AT NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS
SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE WITH BORDERLINE VFR TO MARGINAL MVFR CIGS
NORTH OF THE PIKE THROUGH TONIGHT.  AN AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL
EXPAND MAINLY ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF THE PIKE THIS MORNING...BUT A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL STILL AFFECT NORTHERN MA.  VSBYS/CIGS MAY
BRIEFLY DROP TO IFR LEVELS IN NORTHERN CT/RI/SE MA.  PTYPE WILL BE
RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF PLYMOUTH COUNTY AND ONTO THE
CAPE/ISLANDS WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST.  BULK OF PRECIP THIS
MORNING...BUT A FEW LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  A FEW SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING BUT BULK OF ACTIVITY SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS THIS
MORNING MAY DROP AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW.  MVFR CONDITIONS DOMINATE
TODAY....BUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING IN SNOW SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY...MVFR CIGS CONTINUE IN RI/EASTERN MASS IN MARINE EAST FLOW.
VFR IN THE WEST.

TUESDAY...VFR WITH SCATTERED MVFR IN ANY RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS LOWERING TO IFR IN RAIN/HEAVY RAIN. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EAST-SOUTHEAST
SURFACE WINDS MAY GUST TO 35-45 KNOTS. WINDS AT 2000 FEET AGL WILL
REACH 50-60 KNOTS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY NIGHT CREATING LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONCERNS.

CHRISTMAS DAY...WEST WIND GUSTING 30-40 KNOTS. CONDITIONS IMPROVING
TO VFR AS THE WIND BRINGS IN COOLER DRIER AIR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS QUEBEC WILL RESULT IN NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS
THE WATERS THAT WILL GUST TO BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS.  THIS WILL
RESULT IN 2 TO 4 FOOT SEAS.  HOWEVER...NO HEADLINES PLANNED AS
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE

MONDAY...EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING AROUND 15 KNOTS OR LESS.
SEAS WILL HOLD AROUND 3-4 FEET...MAY INCREASE TO 5FT IN NORTHEAST
FLOW AS GUIDANCE MAY BE UNDERDONE.

TUESDAY... INCREASING EAST WINDS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5-6 FEET ON THE EXPOSED WATERS.  A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

WEDNESDAY...RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES PRODUCING POOR VISIBILITY.
INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS 20-25 SUSTAINED AND 40 KNOT GUSTS.  WINDS
SHOULD SHIFT TO SOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SOUTHWEST TOWARD THURSDAY
MORNING. RAIN WILL TAPER OFF WITH THE WIND SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST. SEAS
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD WITH 7-11 FEET HEIGHTS ON THE EXPOSED WATERS.
A GALE WARNING WILL BE NEEDED...WITH A LOW PROB OF A FEW STORM FORCE
GUSTS ACROSS THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS.

CHRISTMAS DAY... WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST 35-40
KNOTS...SO A CONTINUED GALE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED. SEAS OF 7-15 FEET
ARE POSSIBLE ON THE EXPOSED WATERS...AND 5 FEET IS POSSIBLE ON SOME
OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL OCCUR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. BREAKING
IT DOWN...ON TUESDAY HIGH TIDE AT BOSTON WILL BE 11.6 FT. THERE WILL
BE ONSHORE FLOW DURING THIS HIGH TIDE ALLOWING FOR MINOR SPLASHOVER.
IF WIND GUSTS INCREASE THEN COULD POSSIBLE SEE MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING.

ON WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL SWITCH TO A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DURING
THE DAY AND INCREASE QUICKLY FROM APPROACHING SYSTEM AND DECENT
PRESSURE FALLS. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE IN BOSTON IS 11.7 FT
AND WITH ANY STRENGTH ON THE EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL PUSH THE TIDE
OVER. RIGHT NOW BELIEVE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE
EAST COASTLINE.

WEDNESDAY EVENING...THE WIND GOES IN A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AND
THE TIDE WILL BE INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST. HIGH TIDE IN
PROVIDENCE WILL BE 5.2 FT. 925 MB LLJ STRENGTHENS TO 50-60 KTS WHICH
COULD PUSH A DECENT SURGE UP ALONG THE SOUTH COAST DURING THE TIME
OF HIGH TIDE. THINKING THAT MINOR COASTAL FLOODING COULD OCCUR BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT MODERATE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...ESP IF LLJ
STRENGTHENS EVEN MORE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...FRANK/DUNTEN/RLG
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...FRANK/DUNTEN
MARINE...FRANK/DUNTEN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 211452
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
952 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND BRINGING ANOTHER
PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. A MUCH STRONGER
STORM PASSING WEST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING HEAVY RAINFALL...
GUSTY WINDS AND COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRY BUT VERY WINDY CONDITIONS FOLLOW FOR
CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THIS MORNING. MOST OF THESE ARE TOO LIGHT EVEN TO SHOW UP
ON RADAR BUT THEY ARE BEING REPORTED IN GROUND TRUTH REPORTS FROM
SOCIAL MEDIA AND THE PUBLIC.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THE RAIN/SNOW LINE RUNS ROUGHLY FROM NEWPORT...TO TAUNTON AND
JUST NORTH OF MARSHFIELD. OVERALL...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH CHANGE IN
THE RAIN/SNOW LINE THIS MORNING BASED ON THERMAL PROFILES AND
POSITIONING OF THE COASTAL FRONT.

MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS JUST HOW MUCH SNOW OCCURS THIS MORNING WITH THE
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS CT.  GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE...BEST
FORCING WILL BE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE AND ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHERN CT/RI.  WE WILL FORECAST 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW
ACROSS THIS REGION...BUT A FEW ISOLATED 3 INCH AMOUNTS CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT. MEANWHILE...AREAS NORTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE WILL BE
REMOVED FROM THE BEST FORCING...BUT STILL SEE SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS.  ACCUMS IN THIS AREA LIKELY TO BE A DUSTING TO LESS THAN AN
INCH.

ALSO...SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MA IS
BEING ENHANCED FROM THE COASTAL FRONT.  A LOT OF THIS PRECIP WILL
BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS PLYMOUTH AND EVEN INTO
PORTIONS OF BRISTOL COUNTY...POINTS SOUTH AND EAST.  HOWEVER...AT
LEAST THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHEAST MA SHOULD SEE SNOW
SHOWERS.  WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON IF COASTAL FRONT SHIFTS
SLIGHTLY THIS MORNING.  IT COULD MEAN THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN AN AREA
GETTING MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS OR PERHAPS AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW.
OVERALL...DO NOT EXPECT THE COASTAL FRONT TO MOVE TOO MUCH THIS
MORNING...BUT JUST A FEW MILES CAN MAKE DIFFERENCE FOR A
PARTICULARLY NEIGHBORHOOD.

BULK OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE THIS MORNING WITH THE SHORTWAVE.
HOWEVER...ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/WEAK LIFT WILL REMAIN THIS
AFTERNOON FOR AT LEAST THIS RISK OF SCATTERED PRECIPITATION AND WILL
MAINTAIN SOME POPS.  HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...

A RATHER CLOUDY AND RAW NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  WHILE
THERE IS NOT A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TO TRIGGER A LOT OF
PRECIPITATION...PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/WEAK SHALLOW LIFT
REMAINS.  THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWER
FROM TIME TO TIME.  PTYPE...WOULD BE MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS EXCEPT TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF A NEWPORT...TO TAUNTON...TO JUST NORTH OF
MARSHFIELD LINE.  AGAIN...MUCH OF THE NIGHT WILL PROBABLY END UP
DRY...BUT JUST THE RISK FOR A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* WEAK SHORTWAVE ON MON NIGHT/TUESDAY COULD BRING WINTRY
  MIX/FREEZING RAIN TO THE INTERIOR
* ANOMALOUS SYSTEM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING HEAVY
  RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS AROUND CHRISTMAS
  EVE
* BLUSTERY BUT AIRMASS WILL BE DRYING OUT ON CHRISTMAS DAY

OVERVIEW...

THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES OFFER A REASONABLY SIMILAR AND PREDICTABLE
LARGER SCALE MID TO UPPER LEVEL PATTERN EVOLUTION FOR MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK. THIS ACTIVE FLOW REGIME DEVELOPS SEVERAL MID-UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED/UNSETTLING LEAD SURFACE LOW/FRONTAL
SYSTEMS AND PCPN SWATHS PROGRESS STEADILY ACROSS THE LOWER 48. THE
FIRST AMPLIFIED/DEEP LEAD SYSTEM WORKS ACROSS THE ERN/NERN US INTO
ERN CANADA CHRISTMAS EVE INTO CHRISTMAS ALLOWING FOR A MOIST/WARMED
AIRMASS IN ADVANCE OF FRONTAL APPROACH WITH HEAVIEST LEAD QPF
POTENTIAL OVER NEW ENGLAND. BIGGEST QUESTION IS THE EVOLUTION OF THE
SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. 00Z GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON THE
STRENGTH OF THE LOW AND IS HAVING ISSUES ON HOW TO HANDLE ITS
EVOLUTION. THE EC AND GFS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE SYSTEM SLIGHTLY WITH
THE EC HAVING MORE OF A NEGATIVE TROUGH VS THE GFS. BELIEVE THE
UKMET IS A GOOD COMPROMISE AT IS WAS THE FIRST DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE ON TAMPERING DOWN THE FIRST MAIN LOW...WHILE THE CMC IS OUT
TO LUNCH. REGARDLESS THIS IS A VERY ANOMALOUS SYSTEM THAT IS ABOUT 4
STANDARD DEVIATIONS AWAY.

A SECONDARY SYSTEM DEEPENS ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS ON FRIDAY AND
WITH THE STUBBORN TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S...IT WILL PUSH A
SYSTEM TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM MAY
SUPPORT A MODEST SWATH OF OVERRUNNING SNOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.

DETAILS...

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST
MONDAY...AND WILL BE ON A DEVELOPING WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS LOW
REMAINS WEAK AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES SLOWLY NORTH MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. APPEARS THAT THERE IS DECENT WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS
WAVE. SEVERAL HI-RES GUIDANCE MODELS SHOW THAT THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR COLD AIR DAMMING ACROSS THE INTERIOR INTO TUESDAY.
BIGGEST QUESTION WILL BE IS THERE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR PRECIP DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. DUE TO A STRENGTHENING LLJ PROVIDING A GOOD SOURCE OF
LIFT ANTICIPATE PRECIP TO DEVELOP AND OVERSPREAD ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. IF THIS PLAYS OUT WITH COLD AIR DAMMING AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION...THEN WE COULD SEE FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE ACROSS THE I-91
CORRIDOR LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY...GOOD AMOUNT OF WARM AIR WILL PUSH SURFACE TEMPS ABOVE
FREEZING BY THE LATE MORNING ALLOWING FOR ANY PRECIP TO BE MORE OF
THE LIQUID VARIETY AHEAD OF THE CHRISTMAS EVE STORM. HOWEVER
GUIDANCE IS ALWAYS TOO FAST IN SCOURING TEMPS OUT ESP ACROSS THE CT
VALLEY SO WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS CLOSELY...ESP DUE TO LIGHT
WINDS AND THE HIGH IN EASTERN CANADA. A WINTER WX ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED FOR THE LIGHT ICING POTENTIAL.

WE COULD ALSO SEE SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS ON TUESDAY. SEE
BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SYSTEM LOW CONFIDENCE
ON DETAILS.

ANOMALOUS SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE WILL ROUND THE DEEP TROUGH AND
DEVELOP A SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THIS
SECONDARY LOW WILL STRENGTHEN AND PASS WEST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES TOWARDS EASTERN
CANADA SWINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.

STRONG SOUTHERLY JET OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH A GULF MOISTURE
CONNECTION WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON CHRISTMAS EVE. THIS
STRONG JET WILL YIELD FOR PCPN IN THE LIQUID VARIETY.  PW ANOMALIES
ARE BETWEEN +4 TO +5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL WHICH IS QUITE
ANOMALOUS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. IN FACT CURRENT PWATS ARE PROGGED
ABOVE 1.6 INCHES WITH MODEL QPF OVER 2 INCHES...AT THE VERY LEAST
COULD SEE URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. LATEST EC EVEN SHOWS
OVER 2.5 INCHES OF QPF...AND WITH THE TROPICAL CONNECTION AND STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW COULD SEE HIGHER AMOUNTS DUE TO TOPOGRAPHY
ENHANCEMENTS. RAINFALL RECORDS MAY FALL IF EVERYTHING FALLS INTO
PLACE.

AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL WARM SECTOR WED INTO
THUR MORNING ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. IN
FACT WE MAY BE CLOSE AT BREAKING RECORD HIGH TEMPS IF TEMPS WARM TO
60F OR ABOVE ON CHRISTMAS EVE. SINCE WE WILL BE IN THE WARM
SECTOR...AND SHOWALTERS CLOSE TO ZERO...ISOLATED THUNDER IS STILL
POSSIBLE.

STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE ECMWF SHOWS EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS 30-40 KNOTS ON WEDNESDAY
INCREASING TO 60-75 KNOTS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STRONG DOWNPOURS MAY
OVERCOME THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION AND BRING STRONG GUSTS OF AT LEAST
30-40 KNOTS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED IN SOME AREAS.

CHRISTMAS DAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH EARLY CHRISTMAS DAY...THE WEST
WINDS WILL HELP DRY THE AIRMASS ALLOWING FOR PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.
STRONG CAA ON THURSDAY WILL ALLOW DESCENT MIXING. WINDS IN THE SFC-
850 MB LAYER WILL BE 30-40 KNOTS AND POSSIBLY A LITTLE
HIGHER...WHICH WOULD REQUIRE A WIND ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

FRIDAY-SUNDAY...LOWER CONFIDENCE

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AND SHOULD BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND AT NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS
SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE WITH BORDERLINE VFR TO MARGINAL MVFR CIGS
NORTH OF THE PIKE THROUGH TONIGHT.  AN AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL
EXPAND MAINLY ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF THE PIKE THIS MORNING...BUT A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL STILL AFFECT NORTHERN MA.  VSBYS/CIGS MAY
BRIEFLY DROP TO IFR LEVELS IN NORTHERN CT/RI/SE MA.  PTYPE WILL BE
RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF PLYMOUTH COUNTY AND ONTO THE
CAPE/ISLANDS WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST.  BULK OF PRECIP THIS
MORNING...BUT A FEW LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  A FEW SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING BUT BULK OF ACTIVITY SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS THIS
MORNING MAY DROP AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW.  MVFR CONDITIONS DOMINATE
TODAY....BUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING IN SNOW SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY...MVFR CIGS CONTINUE IN RI/EASTERN MASS IN MARINE EAST FLOW.
VFR IN THE WEST.

TUESDAY...VFR WITH SCATTERED MVFR IN ANY RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS LOWERING TO IFR IN RAIN/HEAVY RAIN. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EAST-SOUTHEAST
SURFACE WINDS MAY GUST TO 35-45 KNOTS. WINDS AT 2000 FEET AGL WILL
REACH 50-60 KNOTS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY NIGHT CREATING LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONCERNS.

CHRISTMAS DAY...WEST WIND GUSTING 30-40 KNOTS. CONDITIONS IMPROVING
TO VFR AS THE WIND BRINGS IN COOLER DRIER AIR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS QUEBEC WILL RESULT IN NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS
THE WATERS THAT WILL GUST TO BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS.  THIS WILL
RESULT IN 2 TO 4 FOOT SEAS.  HOWEVER...NO HEADLINES PLANNED AS
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE

MONDAY...EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING AROUND 15 KNOTS OR LESS.
SEAS WILL HOLD AROUND 3-4 FEET...MAY INCREASE TO 5FT IN NORTHEAST
FLOW AS GUIDANCE MAY BE UNDERDONE.

TUESDAY... INCREASING EAST WINDS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5-6 FEET ON THE EXPOSED WATERS.  A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

WEDNESDAY...RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES PRODUCING POOR VISIBILITY.
INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS 20-25 SUSTAINED AND 40 KNOT GUSTS.  WINDS
SHOULD SHIFT TO SOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SOUTHWEST TOWARD THURSDAY
MORNING. RAIN WILL TAPER OFF WITH THE WIND SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST. SEAS
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD WITH 7-11 FEET HEIGHTS ON THE EXPOSED WATERS.
A GALE WARNING WILL BE NEEDED...WITH A LOW PROB OF A FEW STORM FORCE
GUSTS ACROSS THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS.

CHRISTMAS DAY... WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST 35-40
KNOTS...SO A CONTINUED GALE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED. SEAS OF 7-15 FEET
ARE POSSIBLE ON THE EXPOSED WATERS...AND 5 FEET IS POSSIBLE ON SOME
OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL OCCUR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. BREAKING
IT DOWN...ON TUESDAY HIGH TIDE AT BOSTON WILL BE 11.6 FT. THERE WILL
BE ONSHORE FLOW DURING THIS HIGH TIDE ALLOWING FOR MINOR SPLASHOVER.
IF WIND GUSTS INCREASE THEN COULD POSSIBLE SEE MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING.

ON WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL SWITCH TO A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DURING
THE DAY AND INCREASE QUICKLY FROM APPROACHING SYSTEM AND DECENT
PRESSURE FALLS. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE IN BOSTON IS 11.7 FT
AND WITH ANY STRENGTH ON THE EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL PUSH THE TIDE
OVER. RIGHT NOW BELIEVE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE
EAST COASTLINE.

WEDNESDAY EVENING...THE WIND GOES IN A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AND
THE TIDE WILL BE INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST. HIGH TIDE IN
PROVIDENCE WILL BE 5.2 FT. 925 MB LLJ STRENGTHENS TO 50-60 KTS WHICH
COULD PUSH A DECENT SURGE UP ALONG THE SOUTH COAST DURING THE TIME
OF HIGH TIDE. THINKING THAT MINOR COASTAL FLOODING COULD OCCUR BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT MODERATE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...ESP IF LLJ
STRENGTHENS EVEN MORE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...FRANK/DUNTEN/RLG
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...FRANK/DUNTEN
MARINE...FRANK/DUNTEN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 211452
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
952 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND BRINGING ANOTHER
PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. A MUCH STRONGER
STORM PASSING WEST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING HEAVY RAINFALL...
GUSTY WINDS AND COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRY BUT VERY WINDY CONDITIONS FOLLOW FOR
CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THIS MORNING. MOST OF THESE ARE TOO LIGHT EVEN TO SHOW UP
ON RADAR BUT THEY ARE BEING REPORTED IN GROUND TRUTH REPORTS FROM
SOCIAL MEDIA AND THE PUBLIC.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THE RAIN/SNOW LINE RUNS ROUGHLY FROM NEWPORT...TO TAUNTON AND
JUST NORTH OF MARSHFIELD. OVERALL...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH CHANGE IN
THE RAIN/SNOW LINE THIS MORNING BASED ON THERMAL PROFILES AND
POSITIONING OF THE COASTAL FRONT.

MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS JUST HOW MUCH SNOW OCCURS THIS MORNING WITH THE
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS CT.  GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE...BEST
FORCING WILL BE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE AND ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHERN CT/RI.  WE WILL FORECAST 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW
ACROSS THIS REGION...BUT A FEW ISOLATED 3 INCH AMOUNTS CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT. MEANWHILE...AREAS NORTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE WILL BE
REMOVED FROM THE BEST FORCING...BUT STILL SEE SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS.  ACCUMS IN THIS AREA LIKELY TO BE A DUSTING TO LESS THAN AN
INCH.

ALSO...SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MA IS
BEING ENHANCED FROM THE COASTAL FRONT.  A LOT OF THIS PRECIP WILL
BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS PLYMOUTH AND EVEN INTO
PORTIONS OF BRISTOL COUNTY...POINTS SOUTH AND EAST.  HOWEVER...AT
LEAST THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHEAST MA SHOULD SEE SNOW
SHOWERS.  WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON IF COASTAL FRONT SHIFTS
SLIGHTLY THIS MORNING.  IT COULD MEAN THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN AN AREA
GETTING MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS OR PERHAPS AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW.
OVERALL...DO NOT EXPECT THE COASTAL FRONT TO MOVE TOO MUCH THIS
MORNING...BUT JUST A FEW MILES CAN MAKE DIFFERENCE FOR A
PARTICULARLY NEIGHBORHOOD.

BULK OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE THIS MORNING WITH THE SHORTWAVE.
HOWEVER...ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/WEAK LIFT WILL REMAIN THIS
AFTERNOON FOR AT LEAST THIS RISK OF SCATTERED PRECIPITATION AND WILL
MAINTAIN SOME POPS.  HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...

A RATHER CLOUDY AND RAW NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  WHILE
THERE IS NOT A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TO TRIGGER A LOT OF
PRECIPITATION...PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/WEAK SHALLOW LIFT
REMAINS.  THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWER
FROM TIME TO TIME.  PTYPE...WOULD BE MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS EXCEPT TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF A NEWPORT...TO TAUNTON...TO JUST NORTH OF
MARSHFIELD LINE.  AGAIN...MUCH OF THE NIGHT WILL PROBABLY END UP
DRY...BUT JUST THE RISK FOR A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* WEAK SHORTWAVE ON MON NIGHT/TUESDAY COULD BRING WINTRY
  MIX/FREEZING RAIN TO THE INTERIOR
* ANOMALOUS SYSTEM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING HEAVY
  RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS AROUND CHRISTMAS
  EVE
* BLUSTERY BUT AIRMASS WILL BE DRYING OUT ON CHRISTMAS DAY

OVERVIEW...

THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES OFFER A REASONABLY SIMILAR AND PREDICTABLE
LARGER SCALE MID TO UPPER LEVEL PATTERN EVOLUTION FOR MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK. THIS ACTIVE FLOW REGIME DEVELOPS SEVERAL MID-UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED/UNSETTLING LEAD SURFACE LOW/FRONTAL
SYSTEMS AND PCPN SWATHS PROGRESS STEADILY ACROSS THE LOWER 48. THE
FIRST AMPLIFIED/DEEP LEAD SYSTEM WORKS ACROSS THE ERN/NERN US INTO
ERN CANADA CHRISTMAS EVE INTO CHRISTMAS ALLOWING FOR A MOIST/WARMED
AIRMASS IN ADVANCE OF FRONTAL APPROACH WITH HEAVIEST LEAD QPF
POTENTIAL OVER NEW ENGLAND. BIGGEST QUESTION IS THE EVOLUTION OF THE
SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. 00Z GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON THE
STRENGTH OF THE LOW AND IS HAVING ISSUES ON HOW TO HANDLE ITS
EVOLUTION. THE EC AND GFS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE SYSTEM SLIGHTLY WITH
THE EC HAVING MORE OF A NEGATIVE TROUGH VS THE GFS. BELIEVE THE
UKMET IS A GOOD COMPROMISE AT IS WAS THE FIRST DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE ON TAMPERING DOWN THE FIRST MAIN LOW...WHILE THE CMC IS OUT
TO LUNCH. REGARDLESS THIS IS A VERY ANOMALOUS SYSTEM THAT IS ABOUT 4
STANDARD DEVIATIONS AWAY.

A SECONDARY SYSTEM DEEPENS ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS ON FRIDAY AND
WITH THE STUBBORN TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S...IT WILL PUSH A
SYSTEM TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM MAY
SUPPORT A MODEST SWATH OF OVERRUNNING SNOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.

DETAILS...

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST
MONDAY...AND WILL BE ON A DEVELOPING WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS LOW
REMAINS WEAK AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES SLOWLY NORTH MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. APPEARS THAT THERE IS DECENT WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS
WAVE. SEVERAL HI-RES GUIDANCE MODELS SHOW THAT THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR COLD AIR DAMMING ACROSS THE INTERIOR INTO TUESDAY.
BIGGEST QUESTION WILL BE IS THERE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR PRECIP DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. DUE TO A STRENGTHENING LLJ PROVIDING A GOOD SOURCE OF
LIFT ANTICIPATE PRECIP TO DEVELOP AND OVERSPREAD ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. IF THIS PLAYS OUT WITH COLD AIR DAMMING AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION...THEN WE COULD SEE FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE ACROSS THE I-91
CORRIDOR LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY...GOOD AMOUNT OF WARM AIR WILL PUSH SURFACE TEMPS ABOVE
FREEZING BY THE LATE MORNING ALLOWING FOR ANY PRECIP TO BE MORE OF
THE LIQUID VARIETY AHEAD OF THE CHRISTMAS EVE STORM. HOWEVER
GUIDANCE IS ALWAYS TOO FAST IN SCOURING TEMPS OUT ESP ACROSS THE CT
VALLEY SO WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS CLOSELY...ESP DUE TO LIGHT
WINDS AND THE HIGH IN EASTERN CANADA. A WINTER WX ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED FOR THE LIGHT ICING POTENTIAL.

WE COULD ALSO SEE SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS ON TUESDAY. SEE
BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SYSTEM LOW CONFIDENCE
ON DETAILS.

ANOMALOUS SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE WILL ROUND THE DEEP TROUGH AND
DEVELOP A SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THIS
SECONDARY LOW WILL STRENGTHEN AND PASS WEST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES TOWARDS EASTERN
CANADA SWINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.

STRONG SOUTHERLY JET OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH A GULF MOISTURE
CONNECTION WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON CHRISTMAS EVE. THIS
STRONG JET WILL YIELD FOR PCPN IN THE LIQUID VARIETY.  PW ANOMALIES
ARE BETWEEN +4 TO +5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL WHICH IS QUITE
ANOMALOUS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. IN FACT CURRENT PWATS ARE PROGGED
ABOVE 1.6 INCHES WITH MODEL QPF OVER 2 INCHES...AT THE VERY LEAST
COULD SEE URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. LATEST EC EVEN SHOWS
OVER 2.5 INCHES OF QPF...AND WITH THE TROPICAL CONNECTION AND STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW COULD SEE HIGHER AMOUNTS DUE TO TOPOGRAPHY
ENHANCEMENTS. RAINFALL RECORDS MAY FALL IF EVERYTHING FALLS INTO
PLACE.

AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL WARM SECTOR WED INTO
THUR MORNING ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. IN
FACT WE MAY BE CLOSE AT BREAKING RECORD HIGH TEMPS IF TEMPS WARM TO
60F OR ABOVE ON CHRISTMAS EVE. SINCE WE WILL BE IN THE WARM
SECTOR...AND SHOWALTERS CLOSE TO ZERO...ISOLATED THUNDER IS STILL
POSSIBLE.

STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE ECMWF SHOWS EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS 30-40 KNOTS ON WEDNESDAY
INCREASING TO 60-75 KNOTS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STRONG DOWNPOURS MAY
OVERCOME THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION AND BRING STRONG GUSTS OF AT LEAST
30-40 KNOTS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED IN SOME AREAS.

CHRISTMAS DAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH EARLY CHRISTMAS DAY...THE WEST
WINDS WILL HELP DRY THE AIRMASS ALLOWING FOR PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.
STRONG CAA ON THURSDAY WILL ALLOW DESCENT MIXING. WINDS IN THE SFC-
850 MB LAYER WILL BE 30-40 KNOTS AND POSSIBLY A LITTLE
HIGHER...WHICH WOULD REQUIRE A WIND ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

FRIDAY-SUNDAY...LOWER CONFIDENCE

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AND SHOULD BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND AT NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS
SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE WITH BORDERLINE VFR TO MARGINAL MVFR CIGS
NORTH OF THE PIKE THROUGH TONIGHT.  AN AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL
EXPAND MAINLY ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF THE PIKE THIS MORNING...BUT A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL STILL AFFECT NORTHERN MA.  VSBYS/CIGS MAY
BRIEFLY DROP TO IFR LEVELS IN NORTHERN CT/RI/SE MA.  PTYPE WILL BE
RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF PLYMOUTH COUNTY AND ONTO THE
CAPE/ISLANDS WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST.  BULK OF PRECIP THIS
MORNING...BUT A FEW LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  A FEW SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING BUT BULK OF ACTIVITY SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS THIS
MORNING MAY DROP AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW.  MVFR CONDITIONS DOMINATE
TODAY....BUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING IN SNOW SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY...MVFR CIGS CONTINUE IN RI/EASTERN MASS IN MARINE EAST FLOW.
VFR IN THE WEST.

TUESDAY...VFR WITH SCATTERED MVFR IN ANY RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS LOWERING TO IFR IN RAIN/HEAVY RAIN. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EAST-SOUTHEAST
SURFACE WINDS MAY GUST TO 35-45 KNOTS. WINDS AT 2000 FEET AGL WILL
REACH 50-60 KNOTS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY NIGHT CREATING LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONCERNS.

CHRISTMAS DAY...WEST WIND GUSTING 30-40 KNOTS. CONDITIONS IMPROVING
TO VFR AS THE WIND BRINGS IN COOLER DRIER AIR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS QUEBEC WILL RESULT IN NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS
THE WATERS THAT WILL GUST TO BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS.  THIS WILL
RESULT IN 2 TO 4 FOOT SEAS.  HOWEVER...NO HEADLINES PLANNED AS
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE

MONDAY...EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING AROUND 15 KNOTS OR LESS.
SEAS WILL HOLD AROUND 3-4 FEET...MAY INCREASE TO 5FT IN NORTHEAST
FLOW AS GUIDANCE MAY BE UNDERDONE.

TUESDAY... INCREASING EAST WINDS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5-6 FEET ON THE EXPOSED WATERS.  A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

WEDNESDAY...RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES PRODUCING POOR VISIBILITY.
INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS 20-25 SUSTAINED AND 40 KNOT GUSTS.  WINDS
SHOULD SHIFT TO SOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SOUTHWEST TOWARD THURSDAY
MORNING. RAIN WILL TAPER OFF WITH THE WIND SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST. SEAS
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD WITH 7-11 FEET HEIGHTS ON THE EXPOSED WATERS.
A GALE WARNING WILL BE NEEDED...WITH A LOW PROB OF A FEW STORM FORCE
GUSTS ACROSS THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS.

CHRISTMAS DAY... WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST 35-40
KNOTS...SO A CONTINUED GALE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED. SEAS OF 7-15 FEET
ARE POSSIBLE ON THE EXPOSED WATERS...AND 5 FEET IS POSSIBLE ON SOME
OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL OCCUR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. BREAKING
IT DOWN...ON TUESDAY HIGH TIDE AT BOSTON WILL BE 11.6 FT. THERE WILL
BE ONSHORE FLOW DURING THIS HIGH TIDE ALLOWING FOR MINOR SPLASHOVER.
IF WIND GUSTS INCREASE THEN COULD POSSIBLE SEE MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING.

ON WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL SWITCH TO A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DURING
THE DAY AND INCREASE QUICKLY FROM APPROACHING SYSTEM AND DECENT
PRESSURE FALLS. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE IN BOSTON IS 11.7 FT
AND WITH ANY STRENGTH ON THE EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL PUSH THE TIDE
OVER. RIGHT NOW BELIEVE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE
EAST COASTLINE.

WEDNESDAY EVENING...THE WIND GOES IN A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AND
THE TIDE WILL BE INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST. HIGH TIDE IN
PROVIDENCE WILL BE 5.2 FT. 925 MB LLJ STRENGTHENS TO 50-60 KTS WHICH
COULD PUSH A DECENT SURGE UP ALONG THE SOUTH COAST DURING THE TIME
OF HIGH TIDE. THINKING THAT MINOR COASTAL FLOODING COULD OCCUR BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT MODERATE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...ESP IF LLJ
STRENGTHENS EVEN MORE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...FRANK/DUNTEN/RLG
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...FRANK/DUNTEN
MARINE...FRANK/DUNTEN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 211452
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
952 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND BRINGING ANOTHER
PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. A MUCH STRONGER
STORM PASSING WEST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING HEAVY RAINFALL...
GUSTY WINDS AND COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRY BUT VERY WINDY CONDITIONS FOLLOW FOR
CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THIS MORNING. MOST OF THESE ARE TOO LIGHT EVEN TO SHOW UP
ON RADAR BUT THEY ARE BEING REPORTED IN GROUND TRUTH REPORTS FROM
SOCIAL MEDIA AND THE PUBLIC.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THE RAIN/SNOW LINE RUNS ROUGHLY FROM NEWPORT...TO TAUNTON AND
JUST NORTH OF MARSHFIELD. OVERALL...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH CHANGE IN
THE RAIN/SNOW LINE THIS MORNING BASED ON THERMAL PROFILES AND
POSITIONING OF THE COASTAL FRONT.

MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS JUST HOW MUCH SNOW OCCURS THIS MORNING WITH THE
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS CT.  GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE...BEST
FORCING WILL BE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE AND ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHERN CT/RI.  WE WILL FORECAST 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW
ACROSS THIS REGION...BUT A FEW ISOLATED 3 INCH AMOUNTS CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT. MEANWHILE...AREAS NORTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE WILL BE
REMOVED FROM THE BEST FORCING...BUT STILL SEE SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS.  ACCUMS IN THIS AREA LIKELY TO BE A DUSTING TO LESS THAN AN
INCH.

ALSO...SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MA IS
BEING ENHANCED FROM THE COASTAL FRONT.  A LOT OF THIS PRECIP WILL
BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS PLYMOUTH AND EVEN INTO
PORTIONS OF BRISTOL COUNTY...POINTS SOUTH AND EAST.  HOWEVER...AT
LEAST THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHEAST MA SHOULD SEE SNOW
SHOWERS.  WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON IF COASTAL FRONT SHIFTS
SLIGHTLY THIS MORNING.  IT COULD MEAN THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN AN AREA
GETTING MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS OR PERHAPS AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW.
OVERALL...DO NOT EXPECT THE COASTAL FRONT TO MOVE TOO MUCH THIS
MORNING...BUT JUST A FEW MILES CAN MAKE DIFFERENCE FOR A
PARTICULARLY NEIGHBORHOOD.

BULK OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE THIS MORNING WITH THE SHORTWAVE.
HOWEVER...ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/WEAK LIFT WILL REMAIN THIS
AFTERNOON FOR AT LEAST THIS RISK OF SCATTERED PRECIPITATION AND WILL
MAINTAIN SOME POPS.  HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...

A RATHER CLOUDY AND RAW NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  WHILE
THERE IS NOT A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TO TRIGGER A LOT OF
PRECIPITATION...PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/WEAK SHALLOW LIFT
REMAINS.  THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWER
FROM TIME TO TIME.  PTYPE...WOULD BE MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS EXCEPT TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF A NEWPORT...TO TAUNTON...TO JUST NORTH OF
MARSHFIELD LINE.  AGAIN...MUCH OF THE NIGHT WILL PROBABLY END UP
DRY...BUT JUST THE RISK FOR A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* WEAK SHORTWAVE ON MON NIGHT/TUESDAY COULD BRING WINTRY
  MIX/FREEZING RAIN TO THE INTERIOR
* ANOMALOUS SYSTEM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING HEAVY
  RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS AROUND CHRISTMAS
  EVE
* BLUSTERY BUT AIRMASS WILL BE DRYING OUT ON CHRISTMAS DAY

OVERVIEW...

THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES OFFER A REASONABLY SIMILAR AND PREDICTABLE
LARGER SCALE MID TO UPPER LEVEL PATTERN EVOLUTION FOR MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK. THIS ACTIVE FLOW REGIME DEVELOPS SEVERAL MID-UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED/UNSETTLING LEAD SURFACE LOW/FRONTAL
SYSTEMS AND PCPN SWATHS PROGRESS STEADILY ACROSS THE LOWER 48. THE
FIRST AMPLIFIED/DEEP LEAD SYSTEM WORKS ACROSS THE ERN/NERN US INTO
ERN CANADA CHRISTMAS EVE INTO CHRISTMAS ALLOWING FOR A MOIST/WARMED
AIRMASS IN ADVANCE OF FRONTAL APPROACH WITH HEAVIEST LEAD QPF
POTENTIAL OVER NEW ENGLAND. BIGGEST QUESTION IS THE EVOLUTION OF THE
SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. 00Z GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON THE
STRENGTH OF THE LOW AND IS HAVING ISSUES ON HOW TO HANDLE ITS
EVOLUTION. THE EC AND GFS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE SYSTEM SLIGHTLY WITH
THE EC HAVING MORE OF A NEGATIVE TROUGH VS THE GFS. BELIEVE THE
UKMET IS A GOOD COMPROMISE AT IS WAS THE FIRST DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE ON TAMPERING DOWN THE FIRST MAIN LOW...WHILE THE CMC IS OUT
TO LUNCH. REGARDLESS THIS IS A VERY ANOMALOUS SYSTEM THAT IS ABOUT 4
STANDARD DEVIATIONS AWAY.

A SECONDARY SYSTEM DEEPENS ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS ON FRIDAY AND
WITH THE STUBBORN TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S...IT WILL PUSH A
SYSTEM TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM MAY
SUPPORT A MODEST SWATH OF OVERRUNNING SNOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.

DETAILS...

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST
MONDAY...AND WILL BE ON A DEVELOPING WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS LOW
REMAINS WEAK AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES SLOWLY NORTH MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. APPEARS THAT THERE IS DECENT WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS
WAVE. SEVERAL HI-RES GUIDANCE MODELS SHOW THAT THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR COLD AIR DAMMING ACROSS THE INTERIOR INTO TUESDAY.
BIGGEST QUESTION WILL BE IS THERE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR PRECIP DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. DUE TO A STRENGTHENING LLJ PROVIDING A GOOD SOURCE OF
LIFT ANTICIPATE PRECIP TO DEVELOP AND OVERSPREAD ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. IF THIS PLAYS OUT WITH COLD AIR DAMMING AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION...THEN WE COULD SEE FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE ACROSS THE I-91
CORRIDOR LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY...GOOD AMOUNT OF WARM AIR WILL PUSH SURFACE TEMPS ABOVE
FREEZING BY THE LATE MORNING ALLOWING FOR ANY PRECIP TO BE MORE OF
THE LIQUID VARIETY AHEAD OF THE CHRISTMAS EVE STORM. HOWEVER
GUIDANCE IS ALWAYS TOO FAST IN SCOURING TEMPS OUT ESP ACROSS THE CT
VALLEY SO WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS CLOSELY...ESP DUE TO LIGHT
WINDS AND THE HIGH IN EASTERN CANADA. A WINTER WX ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED FOR THE LIGHT ICING POTENTIAL.

WE COULD ALSO SEE SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS ON TUESDAY. SEE
BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SYSTEM LOW CONFIDENCE
ON DETAILS.

ANOMALOUS SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE WILL ROUND THE DEEP TROUGH AND
DEVELOP A SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THIS
SECONDARY LOW WILL STRENGTHEN AND PASS WEST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES TOWARDS EASTERN
CANADA SWINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.

STRONG SOUTHERLY JET OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH A GULF MOISTURE
CONNECTION WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON CHRISTMAS EVE. THIS
STRONG JET WILL YIELD FOR PCPN IN THE LIQUID VARIETY.  PW ANOMALIES
ARE BETWEEN +4 TO +5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL WHICH IS QUITE
ANOMALOUS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. IN FACT CURRENT PWATS ARE PROGGED
ABOVE 1.6 INCHES WITH MODEL QPF OVER 2 INCHES...AT THE VERY LEAST
COULD SEE URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. LATEST EC EVEN SHOWS
OVER 2.5 INCHES OF QPF...AND WITH THE TROPICAL CONNECTION AND STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW COULD SEE HIGHER AMOUNTS DUE TO TOPOGRAPHY
ENHANCEMENTS. RAINFALL RECORDS MAY FALL IF EVERYTHING FALLS INTO
PLACE.

AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL WARM SECTOR WED INTO
THUR MORNING ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. IN
FACT WE MAY BE CLOSE AT BREAKING RECORD HIGH TEMPS IF TEMPS WARM TO
60F OR ABOVE ON CHRISTMAS EVE. SINCE WE WILL BE IN THE WARM
SECTOR...AND SHOWALTERS CLOSE TO ZERO...ISOLATED THUNDER IS STILL
POSSIBLE.

STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE ECMWF SHOWS EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS 30-40 KNOTS ON WEDNESDAY
INCREASING TO 60-75 KNOTS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STRONG DOWNPOURS MAY
OVERCOME THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION AND BRING STRONG GUSTS OF AT LEAST
30-40 KNOTS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED IN SOME AREAS.

CHRISTMAS DAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH EARLY CHRISTMAS DAY...THE WEST
WINDS WILL HELP DRY THE AIRMASS ALLOWING FOR PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.
STRONG CAA ON THURSDAY WILL ALLOW DESCENT MIXING. WINDS IN THE SFC-
850 MB LAYER WILL BE 30-40 KNOTS AND POSSIBLY A LITTLE
HIGHER...WHICH WOULD REQUIRE A WIND ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

FRIDAY-SUNDAY...LOWER CONFIDENCE

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AND SHOULD BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND AT NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS
SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE WITH BORDERLINE VFR TO MARGINAL MVFR CIGS
NORTH OF THE PIKE THROUGH TONIGHT.  AN AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL
EXPAND MAINLY ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF THE PIKE THIS MORNING...BUT A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL STILL AFFECT NORTHERN MA.  VSBYS/CIGS MAY
BRIEFLY DROP TO IFR LEVELS IN NORTHERN CT/RI/SE MA.  PTYPE WILL BE
RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF PLYMOUTH COUNTY AND ONTO THE
CAPE/ISLANDS WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST.  BULK OF PRECIP THIS
MORNING...BUT A FEW LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  A FEW SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING BUT BULK OF ACTIVITY SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS THIS
MORNING MAY DROP AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW.  MVFR CONDITIONS DOMINATE
TODAY....BUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING IN SNOW SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY...MVFR CIGS CONTINUE IN RI/EASTERN MASS IN MARINE EAST FLOW.
VFR IN THE WEST.

TUESDAY...VFR WITH SCATTERED MVFR IN ANY RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS LOWERING TO IFR IN RAIN/HEAVY RAIN. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EAST-SOUTHEAST
SURFACE WINDS MAY GUST TO 35-45 KNOTS. WINDS AT 2000 FEET AGL WILL
REACH 50-60 KNOTS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY NIGHT CREATING LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONCERNS.

CHRISTMAS DAY...WEST WIND GUSTING 30-40 KNOTS. CONDITIONS IMPROVING
TO VFR AS THE WIND BRINGS IN COOLER DRIER AIR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS QUEBEC WILL RESULT IN NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS
THE WATERS THAT WILL GUST TO BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS.  THIS WILL
RESULT IN 2 TO 4 FOOT SEAS.  HOWEVER...NO HEADLINES PLANNED AS
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE

MONDAY...EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING AROUND 15 KNOTS OR LESS.
SEAS WILL HOLD AROUND 3-4 FEET...MAY INCREASE TO 5FT IN NORTHEAST
FLOW AS GUIDANCE MAY BE UNDERDONE.

TUESDAY... INCREASING EAST WINDS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5-6 FEET ON THE EXPOSED WATERS.  A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

WEDNESDAY...RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES PRODUCING POOR VISIBILITY.
INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS 20-25 SUSTAINED AND 40 KNOT GUSTS.  WINDS
SHOULD SHIFT TO SOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SOUTHWEST TOWARD THURSDAY
MORNING. RAIN WILL TAPER OFF WITH THE WIND SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST. SEAS
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD WITH 7-11 FEET HEIGHTS ON THE EXPOSED WATERS.
A GALE WARNING WILL BE NEEDED...WITH A LOW PROB OF A FEW STORM FORCE
GUSTS ACROSS THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS.

CHRISTMAS DAY... WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST 35-40
KNOTS...SO A CONTINUED GALE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED. SEAS OF 7-15 FEET
ARE POSSIBLE ON THE EXPOSED WATERS...AND 5 FEET IS POSSIBLE ON SOME
OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL OCCUR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. BREAKING
IT DOWN...ON TUESDAY HIGH TIDE AT BOSTON WILL BE 11.6 FT. THERE WILL
BE ONSHORE FLOW DURING THIS HIGH TIDE ALLOWING FOR MINOR SPLASHOVER.
IF WIND GUSTS INCREASE THEN COULD POSSIBLE SEE MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING.

ON WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL SWITCH TO A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DURING
THE DAY AND INCREASE QUICKLY FROM APPROACHING SYSTEM AND DECENT
PRESSURE FALLS. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE IN BOSTON IS 11.7 FT
AND WITH ANY STRENGTH ON THE EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL PUSH THE TIDE
OVER. RIGHT NOW BELIEVE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE
EAST COASTLINE.

WEDNESDAY EVENING...THE WIND GOES IN A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AND
THE TIDE WILL BE INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST. HIGH TIDE IN
PROVIDENCE WILL BE 5.2 FT. 925 MB LLJ STRENGTHENS TO 50-60 KTS WHICH
COULD PUSH A DECENT SURGE UP ALONG THE SOUTH COAST DURING THE TIME
OF HIGH TIDE. THINKING THAT MINOR COASTAL FLOODING COULD OCCUR BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT MODERATE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...ESP IF LLJ
STRENGTHENS EVEN MORE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...FRANK/DUNTEN/RLG
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...FRANK/DUNTEN
MARINE...FRANK/DUNTEN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KALY 211401
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
901 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...
BRINGING SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW TO PARTS OF EASTERN NEW YORK
AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. MOSTLY CLOUDY AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH SOME LIGHT
MIXED PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT...AND A PERIOD OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 9 AM EST...VERY LIGHT SNOW GRAINS HAVE SPREAD NORTH AND WEST
INTO THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION...AND REMAIN FOR AREAS TO THE S
AND E. ACCUMS HAVE BEEN VERY LIGHT DUE TO THE GRAINY
NATURE...GENERALLY ONLY ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH AND WEST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...COMBINED WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO
THE SOUTH...SHOULD KEEP LIGHT SNOW GRAINS/FLURRIES ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH AT LEAST NOON BEFORE DIMINISHING FROM NW TO SE.
AGAIN...ANY ACCUMS SHOULD BE A COATING TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH.

DESPITE HOW LIGHT THE SNOW IS...HAVE HAD REPORTS OF SLIPPERY
TRAVEL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY EARLIER THIS
MORNING. THIS MAY ALSO BE THE CASE FURTHER N AND W INTO THE
CAPITAL REGION...SO HAVE ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
THROUGH NOON TO ADDRESS THIS POTENTIAL.

OTHERWISE...THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION DESCRIBES THE
SYNOPTIC/MESOSCALE SITUATION...

LITTLE LOW LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SEEN ON KOKX RADAR JUST SOUTH OF
EASTERN LONG ISLAND...ASSOCIATED WITH SOME WEAK UPPER ENERGY
TRACKING OFFSHORE. ANOTHER WEAK UPPER IMPULSE IN THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES...WITH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS TRACKING INTO OUR
REGION THROUGH THE DAY. LIGHT SNOW HAS SPREAD INLAND INTO PARTS OF
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
TACONICS... ALTHOUGH THE MOISTURE IS SO SHALLOW AND AT SUCH LOW
LEVELS...AREA RADARS ARE NOT FULLY PICKING UP ON THE AREAL EXTENT
AND INTENSITY OF THE SNOW.

SOME GUIDANCE IS RESOLVING THESE SMALL SCALE FEATURES AND
SUGGESTING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW IN PARTS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...SOUTHERN TACONICS...NW CT AND THE SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES.
SO...HIGH CHANCES TO LIKELY IN SOME AREAS THROUGH THIS MORNING IN
THOSE AREAS.

SOME LIGHT SNOW GRAINS/FLURRIES EVEN INTO THE MOHAWK
VALLEY...CAPITAL DISTRICT AND EASTERN CATSKILLS...WITH CHANCES FOR
BRIEF INTERVALS OF LIGHT SNOW IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN TACONICS AND NORTHERN BERKSHIRES. WITH ALL THE CLOUD
COVER THROUGH THE DAY... HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ON THE COOLER
SIDE OF GUIDANCE. HIGHS AROUND 30 TO THE MID 30S...SOME 20S IN
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SOME
BRIEF BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS...BUT NOT ENOUGH
TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP MUCH. WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT
WINDS...LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S...SOME UPPER TEENS IN THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. WARM ADVECTION SLOWLY STRENGTHENS THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARMING. LIGHT
WIND FLOW THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO
MIX OUT CLOUD COVER...BUT SOUTHERLY WINDS COULD HELP ANY CLEARING
TO THE SOUTH SPREAD SLOWLY NORTH...UNTIL THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING SYSTEM FROM THE WEST SPREAD OVER
THE REGION. STILL...WITH ALL THE CLOUD COVER...HIGHS MONDAY IN THE
30S.

SOUTHERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW SLOWLY INCREASES MONDAY NIGHT AS
DOES WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. LOW LEVEL RIDGING IS
EXPECTED TO BE ANCHORED IN SE CANADA...SO SURFACE FLOW SHOULD BE
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST. AGEOSTROPHIC LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE EAST
AND NORTHEAST SUGGEST THAT ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THAT DEVELOPS
IN THE REGION COULD HELP TEMPERATURES FALL TO WET BULB LEVELS...
WHICH WOULD SUPPORT SNOW AND/OR MIXED PRECIPITATION IN SOME
AREAS...INCLUDING A CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT ION THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S...JUST ABOVE FREEZING
IN MUCH OF THE HUDSON VALLEY...BUT POTENTIALLY CLOSE TO FREEZING
IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. NO WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES YET...WITH
JUST CHANCES FOR FREEZING RAIN BUT WILL INCLUDE IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK BECAUSE HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED IF FREEZING RAIN
BECOMES LIKELY IN SOME AREAS AS THE EVENT NEARS.

ALL PRECIPITATION TRENDS TO ALL RAIN TUESDAY AND SLOWLY INCREASES
IN COVERAGE THROUGH TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS WARM ADVECTION
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT STRENGTHEN. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 40S...BUT
AROUND 40 IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE
MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ACTIVE AND CHANGEABLE WEATHER EXPECTED FROM CHRISTMAS EVE TO
CHRISTMAS DAY...AS A STORM STORM SYSTEM WITH POSSIBLE MULTIPLE
HAZARDS AFFECTS THE REGION. THE MAIN IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS. WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE A MAIN HAZARD WITH THIS SYSTEM.

BY CHRISTMAS EVE DAY OUR REGION SHOULD BE FIRMLY ESTABLISHED IN A
WARM SECTOR ASSOCIATED WITH A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN. A DEEP
TROUGH WILL BE ADVANCING EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...MIDWEST AND TENN VALLEY REGIONS...WITH A RIDGE AXIS
POSITIONED ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AN ANOMALOUSLY WARM AND
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW BOTH IN THE LOW LEVELS AND ALOFT WILL BE IN
PLACE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. DESPITE EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE CLOSE TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH
LOWER TO MID 50S FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY SOUTH AND EAST.

SOUTHERLY WIND FIELD WILL BE INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
STRONG WINDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND AREAS
SUSCEPTIBLE TO SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW. HOW STRONG WIND SPEEDS END UP
IN VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL DEPEND ON DEGREE OF MIXING. SURGES OF
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION WILL LEAD TO OCCASIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL...WITH PWATS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO +4 TO +5 STDEV BY LATE
WEDNESDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG WITH SNOW MELT IN HIGHER TERRAIN
COULD LEAD TO SOME FLOODING. SEE HYDRO SECTION FOR DETAILS.

THERE ARE MODEL DISCREPANCIES WITH REGARDS TO TIMING...TRACK AND
STRENGTH OF THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE AREA...BUT THERE IS AT LEAST
GENERAL CONSENSUS THAT THAT LOW WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST
AND DEEPEN IN THE PROCESS. A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE LOW LOOKS
TO CROSS OUR REGION FROM WEST TO EAST SOMETIME EARLY CHRISTMAS
MORNING. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BURST
OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. STEADY RAINFALL WILL TAPER OFF TO
SCATTERED VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS CHRISTMAS
MORNING. AS THE LOW DEEPENS FURTHER ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON
CHRISTMAS DAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIALLY STRONG WINDS COULD BE
MORE WIDESPREAD IN THE WESTERLY FLOW WITH BETTER MIXING. HIGH TEMPS
WILL LIKELY OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY ON CHRISTMAS...WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE DEVELOPING BRISK WESTERLY WIND.

OTHER THAN A FEW UPSLOPE/LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FOR THE REST OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL TURN MUCH COLDER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS...BUT WILL STILL BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. A WEAKER DISTURBANCE WITH LIMITED MOISTURE
MAY BRING SOME RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WITH LIGHT QPF.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS SOUTHEAST QUEBEC
AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD IN BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TONIGHT.

SOLID BATCH OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...WITH CIGS IN MVFR
RANGE. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO BRUSH THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA...OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 16Z-18Z FOR KALB/KPOU/KPSF
WITH MVFR VSBY/CIGS. LESS MOISTURE ANTICIPATED FARTHER NORTH
AROUND KGFL...SO WILL ONLY MENTION VCSH THERE. CIGS EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE TO VFR RANGE AFTER 18Z...EXCEPT FOR KPSF WHERE MVFR CIGS
SHOULD PREVAIL. CLOUDS MAY TEND TO BREAK UP TOWARDS EVENING...BUT
EXPECTING BKN CIGS TO PREVAIL.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY LESS THAN 5 KTS THROUGH PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. DEFINITE RA.
CHRISTMAS DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 0.75 INCH TO 1.5 INCHES ARE LIKELY ALONG WITH
SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT WHICH RAISES THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING
AND SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES OF LARGER STEM RIVERS. MMEFS
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE BEST CHANCES FOR MINOR FLOODING WOULD BE
FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY THROUGH WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. IT IS TOO
EARLY TO ISSUE ANY FLOOD WATCHES...HOWEVER WILL MENTION IN THE HWO
AT THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...KL/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...NAS








000
FXUS61 KALY 211401
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
901 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...
BRINGING SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW TO PARTS OF EASTERN NEW YORK
AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. MOSTLY CLOUDY AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH SOME LIGHT
MIXED PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT...AND A PERIOD OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 9 AM EST...VERY LIGHT SNOW GRAINS HAVE SPREAD NORTH AND WEST
INTO THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION...AND REMAIN FOR AREAS TO THE S
AND E. ACCUMS HAVE BEEN VERY LIGHT DUE TO THE GRAINY
NATURE...GENERALLY ONLY ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH AND WEST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...COMBINED WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO
THE SOUTH...SHOULD KEEP LIGHT SNOW GRAINS/FLURRIES ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH AT LEAST NOON BEFORE DIMINISHING FROM NW TO SE.
AGAIN...ANY ACCUMS SHOULD BE A COATING TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH.

DESPITE HOW LIGHT THE SNOW IS...HAVE HAD REPORTS OF SLIPPERY
TRAVEL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY EARLIER THIS
MORNING. THIS MAY ALSO BE THE CASE FURTHER N AND W INTO THE
CAPITAL REGION...SO HAVE ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
THROUGH NOON TO ADDRESS THIS POTENTIAL.

OTHERWISE...THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION DESCRIBES THE
SYNOPTIC/MESOSCALE SITUATION...

LITTLE LOW LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SEEN ON KOKX RADAR JUST SOUTH OF
EASTERN LONG ISLAND...ASSOCIATED WITH SOME WEAK UPPER ENERGY
TRACKING OFFSHORE. ANOTHER WEAK UPPER IMPULSE IN THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES...WITH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS TRACKING INTO OUR
REGION THROUGH THE DAY. LIGHT SNOW HAS SPREAD INLAND INTO PARTS OF
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
TACONICS... ALTHOUGH THE MOISTURE IS SO SHALLOW AND AT SUCH LOW
LEVELS...AREA RADARS ARE NOT FULLY PICKING UP ON THE AREAL EXTENT
AND INTENSITY OF THE SNOW.

SOME GUIDANCE IS RESOLVING THESE SMALL SCALE FEATURES AND
SUGGESTING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW IN PARTS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...SOUTHERN TACONICS...NW CT AND THE SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES.
SO...HIGH CHANCES TO LIKELY IN SOME AREAS THROUGH THIS MORNING IN
THOSE AREAS.

SOME LIGHT SNOW GRAINS/FLURRIES EVEN INTO THE MOHAWK
VALLEY...CAPITAL DISTRICT AND EASTERN CATSKILLS...WITH CHANCES FOR
BRIEF INTERVALS OF LIGHT SNOW IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN TACONICS AND NORTHERN BERKSHIRES. WITH ALL THE CLOUD
COVER THROUGH THE DAY... HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ON THE COOLER
SIDE OF GUIDANCE. HIGHS AROUND 30 TO THE MID 30S...SOME 20S IN
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SOME
BRIEF BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS...BUT NOT ENOUGH
TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP MUCH. WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT
WINDS...LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S...SOME UPPER TEENS IN THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. WARM ADVECTION SLOWLY STRENGTHENS THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARMING. LIGHT
WIND FLOW THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO
MIX OUT CLOUD COVER...BUT SOUTHERLY WINDS COULD HELP ANY CLEARING
TO THE SOUTH SPREAD SLOWLY NORTH...UNTIL THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING SYSTEM FROM THE WEST SPREAD OVER
THE REGION. STILL...WITH ALL THE CLOUD COVER...HIGHS MONDAY IN THE
30S.

SOUTHERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW SLOWLY INCREASES MONDAY NIGHT AS
DOES WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. LOW LEVEL RIDGING IS
EXPECTED TO BE ANCHORED IN SE CANADA...SO SURFACE FLOW SHOULD BE
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST. AGEOSTROPHIC LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE EAST
AND NORTHEAST SUGGEST THAT ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THAT DEVELOPS
IN THE REGION COULD HELP TEMPERATURES FALL TO WET BULB LEVELS...
WHICH WOULD SUPPORT SNOW AND/OR MIXED PRECIPITATION IN SOME
AREAS...INCLUDING A CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT ION THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S...JUST ABOVE FREEZING
IN MUCH OF THE HUDSON VALLEY...BUT POTENTIALLY CLOSE TO FREEZING
IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. NO WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES YET...WITH
JUST CHANCES FOR FREEZING RAIN BUT WILL INCLUDE IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK BECAUSE HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED IF FREEZING RAIN
BECOMES LIKELY IN SOME AREAS AS THE EVENT NEARS.

ALL PRECIPITATION TRENDS TO ALL RAIN TUESDAY AND SLOWLY INCREASES
IN COVERAGE THROUGH TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS WARM ADVECTION
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT STRENGTHEN. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 40S...BUT
AROUND 40 IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE
MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ACTIVE AND CHANGEABLE WEATHER EXPECTED FROM CHRISTMAS EVE TO
CHRISTMAS DAY...AS A STORM STORM SYSTEM WITH POSSIBLE MULTIPLE
HAZARDS AFFECTS THE REGION. THE MAIN IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS. WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE A MAIN HAZARD WITH THIS SYSTEM.

BY CHRISTMAS EVE DAY OUR REGION SHOULD BE FIRMLY ESTABLISHED IN A
WARM SECTOR ASSOCIATED WITH A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN. A DEEP
TROUGH WILL BE ADVANCING EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...MIDWEST AND TENN VALLEY REGIONS...WITH A RIDGE AXIS
POSITIONED ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AN ANOMALOUSLY WARM AND
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW BOTH IN THE LOW LEVELS AND ALOFT WILL BE IN
PLACE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. DESPITE EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE CLOSE TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH
LOWER TO MID 50S FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY SOUTH AND EAST.

SOUTHERLY WIND FIELD WILL BE INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
STRONG WINDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND AREAS
SUSCEPTIBLE TO SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW. HOW STRONG WIND SPEEDS END UP
IN VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL DEPEND ON DEGREE OF MIXING. SURGES OF
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION WILL LEAD TO OCCASIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL...WITH PWATS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO +4 TO +5 STDEV BY LATE
WEDNESDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG WITH SNOW MELT IN HIGHER TERRAIN
COULD LEAD TO SOME FLOODING. SEE HYDRO SECTION FOR DETAILS.

THERE ARE MODEL DISCREPANCIES WITH REGARDS TO TIMING...TRACK AND
STRENGTH OF THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE AREA...BUT THERE IS AT LEAST
GENERAL CONSENSUS THAT THAT LOW WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST
AND DEEPEN IN THE PROCESS. A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE LOW LOOKS
TO CROSS OUR REGION FROM WEST TO EAST SOMETIME EARLY CHRISTMAS
MORNING. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BURST
OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. STEADY RAINFALL WILL TAPER OFF TO
SCATTERED VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS CHRISTMAS
MORNING. AS THE LOW DEEPENS FURTHER ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON
CHRISTMAS DAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIALLY STRONG WINDS COULD BE
MORE WIDESPREAD IN THE WESTERLY FLOW WITH BETTER MIXING. HIGH TEMPS
WILL LIKELY OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY ON CHRISTMAS...WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE DEVELOPING BRISK WESTERLY WIND.

OTHER THAN A FEW UPSLOPE/LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FOR THE REST OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL TURN MUCH COLDER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS...BUT WILL STILL BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. A WEAKER DISTURBANCE WITH LIMITED MOISTURE
MAY BRING SOME RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WITH LIGHT QPF.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS SOUTHEAST QUEBEC
AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD IN BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TONIGHT.

SOLID BATCH OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...WITH CIGS IN MVFR
RANGE. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO BRUSH THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA...OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 16Z-18Z FOR KALB/KPOU/KPSF
WITH MVFR VSBY/CIGS. LESS MOISTURE ANTICIPATED FARTHER NORTH
AROUND KGFL...SO WILL ONLY MENTION VCSH THERE. CIGS EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE TO VFR RANGE AFTER 18Z...EXCEPT FOR KPSF WHERE MVFR CIGS
SHOULD PREVAIL. CLOUDS MAY TEND TO BREAK UP TOWARDS EVENING...BUT
EXPECTING BKN CIGS TO PREVAIL.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY LESS THAN 5 KTS THROUGH PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. DEFINITE RA.
CHRISTMAS DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 0.75 INCH TO 1.5 INCHES ARE LIKELY ALONG WITH
SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT WHICH RAISES THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING
AND SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES OF LARGER STEM RIVERS. MMEFS
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE BEST CHANCES FOR MINOR FLOODING WOULD BE
FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY THROUGH WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. IT IS TOO
EARLY TO ISSUE ANY FLOOD WATCHES...HOWEVER WILL MENTION IN THE HWO
AT THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...KL/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...NAS








000
FXUS61 KALY 211401
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
901 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...
BRINGING SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW TO PARTS OF EASTERN NEW YORK
AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. MOSTLY CLOUDY AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH SOME LIGHT
MIXED PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT...AND A PERIOD OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 9 AM EST...VERY LIGHT SNOW GRAINS HAVE SPREAD NORTH AND WEST
INTO THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION...AND REMAIN FOR AREAS TO THE S
AND E. ACCUMS HAVE BEEN VERY LIGHT DUE TO THE GRAINY
NATURE...GENERALLY ONLY ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH AND WEST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...COMBINED WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO
THE SOUTH...SHOULD KEEP LIGHT SNOW GRAINS/FLURRIES ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH AT LEAST NOON BEFORE DIMINISHING FROM NW TO SE.
AGAIN...ANY ACCUMS SHOULD BE A COATING TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH.

DESPITE HOW LIGHT THE SNOW IS...HAVE HAD REPORTS OF SLIPPERY
TRAVEL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY EARLIER THIS
MORNING. THIS MAY ALSO BE THE CASE FURTHER N AND W INTO THE
CAPITAL REGION...SO HAVE ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
THROUGH NOON TO ADDRESS THIS POTENTIAL.

OTHERWISE...THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION DESCRIBES THE
SYNOPTIC/MESOSCALE SITUATION...

LITTLE LOW LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SEEN ON KOKX RADAR JUST SOUTH OF
EASTERN LONG ISLAND...ASSOCIATED WITH SOME WEAK UPPER ENERGY
TRACKING OFFSHORE. ANOTHER WEAK UPPER IMPULSE IN THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES...WITH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS TRACKING INTO OUR
REGION THROUGH THE DAY. LIGHT SNOW HAS SPREAD INLAND INTO PARTS OF
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
TACONICS... ALTHOUGH THE MOISTURE IS SO SHALLOW AND AT SUCH LOW
LEVELS...AREA RADARS ARE NOT FULLY PICKING UP ON THE AREAL EXTENT
AND INTENSITY OF THE SNOW.

SOME GUIDANCE IS RESOLVING THESE SMALL SCALE FEATURES AND
SUGGESTING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW IN PARTS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...SOUTHERN TACONICS...NW CT AND THE SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES.
SO...HIGH CHANCES TO LIKELY IN SOME AREAS THROUGH THIS MORNING IN
THOSE AREAS.

SOME LIGHT SNOW GRAINS/FLURRIES EVEN INTO THE MOHAWK
VALLEY...CAPITAL DISTRICT AND EASTERN CATSKILLS...WITH CHANCES FOR
BRIEF INTERVALS OF LIGHT SNOW IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN TACONICS AND NORTHERN BERKSHIRES. WITH ALL THE CLOUD
COVER THROUGH THE DAY... HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ON THE COOLER
SIDE OF GUIDANCE. HIGHS AROUND 30 TO THE MID 30S...SOME 20S IN
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SOME
BRIEF BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS...BUT NOT ENOUGH
TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP MUCH. WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT
WINDS...LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S...SOME UPPER TEENS IN THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. WARM ADVECTION SLOWLY STRENGTHENS THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARMING. LIGHT
WIND FLOW THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO
MIX OUT CLOUD COVER...BUT SOUTHERLY WINDS COULD HELP ANY CLEARING
TO THE SOUTH SPREAD SLOWLY NORTH...UNTIL THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING SYSTEM FROM THE WEST SPREAD OVER
THE REGION. STILL...WITH ALL THE CLOUD COVER...HIGHS MONDAY IN THE
30S.

SOUTHERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW SLOWLY INCREASES MONDAY NIGHT AS
DOES WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. LOW LEVEL RIDGING IS
EXPECTED TO BE ANCHORED IN SE CANADA...SO SURFACE FLOW SHOULD BE
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST. AGEOSTROPHIC LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE EAST
AND NORTHEAST SUGGEST THAT ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THAT DEVELOPS
IN THE REGION COULD HELP TEMPERATURES FALL TO WET BULB LEVELS...
WHICH WOULD SUPPORT SNOW AND/OR MIXED PRECIPITATION IN SOME
AREAS...INCLUDING A CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT ION THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S...JUST ABOVE FREEZING
IN MUCH OF THE HUDSON VALLEY...BUT POTENTIALLY CLOSE TO FREEZING
IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. NO WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES YET...WITH
JUST CHANCES FOR FREEZING RAIN BUT WILL INCLUDE IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK BECAUSE HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED IF FREEZING RAIN
BECOMES LIKELY IN SOME AREAS AS THE EVENT NEARS.

ALL PRECIPITATION TRENDS TO ALL RAIN TUESDAY AND SLOWLY INCREASES
IN COVERAGE THROUGH TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS WARM ADVECTION
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT STRENGTHEN. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 40S...BUT
AROUND 40 IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE
MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ACTIVE AND CHANGEABLE WEATHER EXPECTED FROM CHRISTMAS EVE TO
CHRISTMAS DAY...AS A STORM STORM SYSTEM WITH POSSIBLE MULTIPLE
HAZARDS AFFECTS THE REGION. THE MAIN IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS. WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE A MAIN HAZARD WITH THIS SYSTEM.

BY CHRISTMAS EVE DAY OUR REGION SHOULD BE FIRMLY ESTABLISHED IN A
WARM SECTOR ASSOCIATED WITH A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN. A DEEP
TROUGH WILL BE ADVANCING EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...MIDWEST AND TENN VALLEY REGIONS...WITH A RIDGE AXIS
POSITIONED ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AN ANOMALOUSLY WARM AND
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW BOTH IN THE LOW LEVELS AND ALOFT WILL BE IN
PLACE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. DESPITE EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE CLOSE TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH
LOWER TO MID 50S FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY SOUTH AND EAST.

SOUTHERLY WIND FIELD WILL BE INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
STRONG WINDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND AREAS
SUSCEPTIBLE TO SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW. HOW STRONG WIND SPEEDS END UP
IN VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL DEPEND ON DEGREE OF MIXING. SURGES OF
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION WILL LEAD TO OCCASIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL...WITH PWATS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO +4 TO +5 STDEV BY LATE
WEDNESDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG WITH SNOW MELT IN HIGHER TERRAIN
COULD LEAD TO SOME FLOODING. SEE HYDRO SECTION FOR DETAILS.

THERE ARE MODEL DISCREPANCIES WITH REGARDS TO TIMING...TRACK AND
STRENGTH OF THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE AREA...BUT THERE IS AT LEAST
GENERAL CONSENSUS THAT THAT LOW WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST
AND DEEPEN IN THE PROCESS. A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE LOW LOOKS
TO CROSS OUR REGION FROM WEST TO EAST SOMETIME EARLY CHRISTMAS
MORNING. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BURST
OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. STEADY RAINFALL WILL TAPER OFF TO
SCATTERED VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS CHRISTMAS
MORNING. AS THE LOW DEEPENS FURTHER ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON
CHRISTMAS DAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIALLY STRONG WINDS COULD BE
MORE WIDESPREAD IN THE WESTERLY FLOW WITH BETTER MIXING. HIGH TEMPS
WILL LIKELY OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY ON CHRISTMAS...WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE DEVELOPING BRISK WESTERLY WIND.

OTHER THAN A FEW UPSLOPE/LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FOR THE REST OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL TURN MUCH COLDER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS...BUT WILL STILL BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. A WEAKER DISTURBANCE WITH LIMITED MOISTURE
MAY BRING SOME RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WITH LIGHT QPF.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS SOUTHEAST QUEBEC
AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD IN BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TONIGHT.

SOLID BATCH OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...WITH CIGS IN MVFR
RANGE. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO BRUSH THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA...OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 16Z-18Z FOR KALB/KPOU/KPSF
WITH MVFR VSBY/CIGS. LESS MOISTURE ANTICIPATED FARTHER NORTH
AROUND KGFL...SO WILL ONLY MENTION VCSH THERE. CIGS EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE TO VFR RANGE AFTER 18Z...EXCEPT FOR KPSF WHERE MVFR CIGS
SHOULD PREVAIL. CLOUDS MAY TEND TO BREAK UP TOWARDS EVENING...BUT
EXPECTING BKN CIGS TO PREVAIL.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY LESS THAN 5 KTS THROUGH PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. DEFINITE RA.
CHRISTMAS DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 0.75 INCH TO 1.5 INCHES ARE LIKELY ALONG WITH
SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT WHICH RAISES THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING
AND SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES OF LARGER STEM RIVERS. MMEFS
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE BEST CHANCES FOR MINOR FLOODING WOULD BE
FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY THROUGH WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. IT IS TOO
EARLY TO ISSUE ANY FLOOD WATCHES...HOWEVER WILL MENTION IN THE HWO
AT THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...KL/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...NAS








000
FXUS61 KALY 211401
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
901 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...
BRINGING SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW TO PARTS OF EASTERN NEW YORK
AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. MOSTLY CLOUDY AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH SOME LIGHT
MIXED PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT...AND A PERIOD OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 9 AM EST...VERY LIGHT SNOW GRAINS HAVE SPREAD NORTH AND WEST
INTO THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION...AND REMAIN FOR AREAS TO THE S
AND E. ACCUMS HAVE BEEN VERY LIGHT DUE TO THE GRAINY
NATURE...GENERALLY ONLY ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH AND WEST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...COMBINED WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO
THE SOUTH...SHOULD KEEP LIGHT SNOW GRAINS/FLURRIES ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH AT LEAST NOON BEFORE DIMINISHING FROM NW TO SE.
AGAIN...ANY ACCUMS SHOULD BE A COATING TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH.

DESPITE HOW LIGHT THE SNOW IS...HAVE HAD REPORTS OF SLIPPERY
TRAVEL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY EARLIER THIS
MORNING. THIS MAY ALSO BE THE CASE FURTHER N AND W INTO THE
CAPITAL REGION...SO HAVE ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
THROUGH NOON TO ADDRESS THIS POTENTIAL.

OTHERWISE...THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION DESCRIBES THE
SYNOPTIC/MESOSCALE SITUATION...

LITTLE LOW LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SEEN ON KOKX RADAR JUST SOUTH OF
EASTERN LONG ISLAND...ASSOCIATED WITH SOME WEAK UPPER ENERGY
TRACKING OFFSHORE. ANOTHER WEAK UPPER IMPULSE IN THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES...WITH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS TRACKING INTO OUR
REGION THROUGH THE DAY. LIGHT SNOW HAS SPREAD INLAND INTO PARTS OF
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
TACONICS... ALTHOUGH THE MOISTURE IS SO SHALLOW AND AT SUCH LOW
LEVELS...AREA RADARS ARE NOT FULLY PICKING UP ON THE AREAL EXTENT
AND INTENSITY OF THE SNOW.

SOME GUIDANCE IS RESOLVING THESE SMALL SCALE FEATURES AND
SUGGESTING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW IN PARTS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...SOUTHERN TACONICS...NW CT AND THE SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES.
SO...HIGH CHANCES TO LIKELY IN SOME AREAS THROUGH THIS MORNING IN
THOSE AREAS.

SOME LIGHT SNOW GRAINS/FLURRIES EVEN INTO THE MOHAWK
VALLEY...CAPITAL DISTRICT AND EASTERN CATSKILLS...WITH CHANCES FOR
BRIEF INTERVALS OF LIGHT SNOW IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN TACONICS AND NORTHERN BERKSHIRES. WITH ALL THE CLOUD
COVER THROUGH THE DAY... HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ON THE COOLER
SIDE OF GUIDANCE. HIGHS AROUND 30 TO THE MID 30S...SOME 20S IN
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SOME
BRIEF BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS...BUT NOT ENOUGH
TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP MUCH. WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT
WINDS...LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S...SOME UPPER TEENS IN THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. WARM ADVECTION SLOWLY STRENGTHENS THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARMING. LIGHT
WIND FLOW THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO
MIX OUT CLOUD COVER...BUT SOUTHERLY WINDS COULD HELP ANY CLEARING
TO THE SOUTH SPREAD SLOWLY NORTH...UNTIL THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING SYSTEM FROM THE WEST SPREAD OVER
THE REGION. STILL...WITH ALL THE CLOUD COVER...HIGHS MONDAY IN THE
30S.

SOUTHERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW SLOWLY INCREASES MONDAY NIGHT AS
DOES WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. LOW LEVEL RIDGING IS
EXPECTED TO BE ANCHORED IN SE CANADA...SO SURFACE FLOW SHOULD BE
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST. AGEOSTROPHIC LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE EAST
AND NORTHEAST SUGGEST THAT ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THAT DEVELOPS
IN THE REGION COULD HELP TEMPERATURES FALL TO WET BULB LEVELS...
WHICH WOULD SUPPORT SNOW AND/OR MIXED PRECIPITATION IN SOME
AREAS...INCLUDING A CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT ION THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S...JUST ABOVE FREEZING
IN MUCH OF THE HUDSON VALLEY...BUT POTENTIALLY CLOSE TO FREEZING
IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. NO WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES YET...WITH
JUST CHANCES FOR FREEZING RAIN BUT WILL INCLUDE IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK BECAUSE HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED IF FREEZING RAIN
BECOMES LIKELY IN SOME AREAS AS THE EVENT NEARS.

ALL PRECIPITATION TRENDS TO ALL RAIN TUESDAY AND SLOWLY INCREASES
IN COVERAGE THROUGH TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS WARM ADVECTION
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT STRENGTHEN. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 40S...BUT
AROUND 40 IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE
MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ACTIVE AND CHANGEABLE WEATHER EXPECTED FROM CHRISTMAS EVE TO
CHRISTMAS DAY...AS A STORM STORM SYSTEM WITH POSSIBLE MULTIPLE
HAZARDS AFFECTS THE REGION. THE MAIN IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS. WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE A MAIN HAZARD WITH THIS SYSTEM.

BY CHRISTMAS EVE DAY OUR REGION SHOULD BE FIRMLY ESTABLISHED IN A
WARM SECTOR ASSOCIATED WITH A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN. A DEEP
TROUGH WILL BE ADVANCING EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...MIDWEST AND TENN VALLEY REGIONS...WITH A RIDGE AXIS
POSITIONED ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AN ANOMALOUSLY WARM AND
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW BOTH IN THE LOW LEVELS AND ALOFT WILL BE IN
PLACE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. DESPITE EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE CLOSE TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH
LOWER TO MID 50S FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY SOUTH AND EAST.

SOUTHERLY WIND FIELD WILL BE INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
STRONG WINDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND AREAS
SUSCEPTIBLE TO SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW. HOW STRONG WIND SPEEDS END UP
IN VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL DEPEND ON DEGREE OF MIXING. SURGES OF
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION WILL LEAD TO OCCASIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL...WITH PWATS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO +4 TO +5 STDEV BY LATE
WEDNESDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG WITH SNOW MELT IN HIGHER TERRAIN
COULD LEAD TO SOME FLOODING. SEE HYDRO SECTION FOR DETAILS.

THERE ARE MODEL DISCREPANCIES WITH REGARDS TO TIMING...TRACK AND
STRENGTH OF THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE AREA...BUT THERE IS AT LEAST
GENERAL CONSENSUS THAT THAT LOW WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST
AND DEEPEN IN THE PROCESS. A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE LOW LOOKS
TO CROSS OUR REGION FROM WEST TO EAST SOMETIME EARLY CHRISTMAS
MORNING. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BURST
OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. STEADY RAINFALL WILL TAPER OFF TO
SCATTERED VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS CHRISTMAS
MORNING. AS THE LOW DEEPENS FURTHER ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON
CHRISTMAS DAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIALLY STRONG WINDS COULD BE
MORE WIDESPREAD IN THE WESTERLY FLOW WITH BETTER MIXING. HIGH TEMPS
WILL LIKELY OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY ON CHRISTMAS...WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE DEVELOPING BRISK WESTERLY WIND.

OTHER THAN A FEW UPSLOPE/LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FOR THE REST OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL TURN MUCH COLDER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS...BUT WILL STILL BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. A WEAKER DISTURBANCE WITH LIMITED MOISTURE
MAY BRING SOME RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WITH LIGHT QPF.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS SOUTHEAST QUEBEC
AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD IN BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TONIGHT.

SOLID BATCH OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...WITH CIGS IN MVFR
RANGE. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO BRUSH THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA...OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 16Z-18Z FOR KALB/KPOU/KPSF
WITH MVFR VSBY/CIGS. LESS MOISTURE ANTICIPATED FARTHER NORTH
AROUND KGFL...SO WILL ONLY MENTION VCSH THERE. CIGS EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE TO VFR RANGE AFTER 18Z...EXCEPT FOR KPSF WHERE MVFR CIGS
SHOULD PREVAIL. CLOUDS MAY TEND TO BREAK UP TOWARDS EVENING...BUT
EXPECTING BKN CIGS TO PREVAIL.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY LESS THAN 5 KTS THROUGH PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. DEFINITE RA.
CHRISTMAS DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 0.75 INCH TO 1.5 INCHES ARE LIKELY ALONG WITH
SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT WHICH RAISES THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING
AND SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES OF LARGER STEM RIVERS. MMEFS
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE BEST CHANCES FOR MINOR FLOODING WOULD BE
FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY THROUGH WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. IT IS TOO
EARLY TO ISSUE ANY FLOOD WATCHES...HOWEVER WILL MENTION IN THE HWO
AT THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...KL/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...NAS








000
FXUS61 KALY 211401
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
901 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...
BRINGING SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW TO PARTS OF EASTERN NEW YORK
AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. MOSTLY CLOUDY AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH SOME LIGHT
MIXED PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT...AND A PERIOD OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 9 AM EST...VERY LIGHT SNOW GRAINS HAVE SPREAD NORTH AND WEST
INTO THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION...AND REMAIN FOR AREAS TO THE S
AND E. ACCUMS HAVE BEEN VERY LIGHT DUE TO THE GRAINY
NATURE...GENERALLY ONLY ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH AND WEST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...COMBINED WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO
THE SOUTH...SHOULD KEEP LIGHT SNOW GRAINS/FLURRIES ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH AT LEAST NOON BEFORE DIMINISHING FROM NW TO SE.
AGAIN...ANY ACCUMS SHOULD BE A COATING TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH.

DESPITE HOW LIGHT THE SNOW IS...HAVE HAD REPORTS OF SLIPPERY
TRAVEL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY EARLIER THIS
MORNING. THIS MAY ALSO BE THE CASE FURTHER N AND W INTO THE
CAPITAL REGION...SO HAVE ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
THROUGH NOON TO ADDRESS THIS POTENTIAL.

OTHERWISE...THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION DESCRIBES THE
SYNOPTIC/MESOSCALE SITUATION...

LITTLE LOW LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SEEN ON KOKX RADAR JUST SOUTH OF
EASTERN LONG ISLAND...ASSOCIATED WITH SOME WEAK UPPER ENERGY
TRACKING OFFSHORE. ANOTHER WEAK UPPER IMPULSE IN THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES...WITH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS TRACKING INTO OUR
REGION THROUGH THE DAY. LIGHT SNOW HAS SPREAD INLAND INTO PARTS OF
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
TACONICS... ALTHOUGH THE MOISTURE IS SO SHALLOW AND AT SUCH LOW
LEVELS...AREA RADARS ARE NOT FULLY PICKING UP ON THE AREAL EXTENT
AND INTENSITY OF THE SNOW.

SOME GUIDANCE IS RESOLVING THESE SMALL SCALE FEATURES AND
SUGGESTING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW IN PARTS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...SOUTHERN TACONICS...NW CT AND THE SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES.
SO...HIGH CHANCES TO LIKELY IN SOME AREAS THROUGH THIS MORNING IN
THOSE AREAS.

SOME LIGHT SNOW GRAINS/FLURRIES EVEN INTO THE MOHAWK
VALLEY...CAPITAL DISTRICT AND EASTERN CATSKILLS...WITH CHANCES FOR
BRIEF INTERVALS OF LIGHT SNOW IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN TACONICS AND NORTHERN BERKSHIRES. WITH ALL THE CLOUD
COVER THROUGH THE DAY... HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ON THE COOLER
SIDE OF GUIDANCE. HIGHS AROUND 30 TO THE MID 30S...SOME 20S IN
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SOME
BRIEF BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS...BUT NOT ENOUGH
TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP MUCH. WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT
WINDS...LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S...SOME UPPER TEENS IN THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. WARM ADVECTION SLOWLY STRENGTHENS THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARMING. LIGHT
WIND FLOW THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO
MIX OUT CLOUD COVER...BUT SOUTHERLY WINDS COULD HELP ANY CLEARING
TO THE SOUTH SPREAD SLOWLY NORTH...UNTIL THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING SYSTEM FROM THE WEST SPREAD OVER
THE REGION. STILL...WITH ALL THE CLOUD COVER...HIGHS MONDAY IN THE
30S.

SOUTHERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW SLOWLY INCREASES MONDAY NIGHT AS
DOES WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. LOW LEVEL RIDGING IS
EXPECTED TO BE ANCHORED IN SE CANADA...SO SURFACE FLOW SHOULD BE
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST. AGEOSTROPHIC LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE EAST
AND NORTHEAST SUGGEST THAT ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THAT DEVELOPS
IN THE REGION COULD HELP TEMPERATURES FALL TO WET BULB LEVELS...
WHICH WOULD SUPPORT SNOW AND/OR MIXED PRECIPITATION IN SOME
AREAS...INCLUDING A CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT ION THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S...JUST ABOVE FREEZING
IN MUCH OF THE HUDSON VALLEY...BUT POTENTIALLY CLOSE TO FREEZING
IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. NO WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES YET...WITH
JUST CHANCES FOR FREEZING RAIN BUT WILL INCLUDE IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK BECAUSE HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED IF FREEZING RAIN
BECOMES LIKELY IN SOME AREAS AS THE EVENT NEARS.

ALL PRECIPITATION TRENDS TO ALL RAIN TUESDAY AND SLOWLY INCREASES
IN COVERAGE THROUGH TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS WARM ADVECTION
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT STRENGTHEN. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 40S...BUT
AROUND 40 IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE
MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ACTIVE AND CHANGEABLE WEATHER EXPECTED FROM CHRISTMAS EVE TO
CHRISTMAS DAY...AS A STORM STORM SYSTEM WITH POSSIBLE MULTIPLE
HAZARDS AFFECTS THE REGION. THE MAIN IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS. WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE A MAIN HAZARD WITH THIS SYSTEM.

BY CHRISTMAS EVE DAY OUR REGION SHOULD BE FIRMLY ESTABLISHED IN A
WARM SECTOR ASSOCIATED WITH A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN. A DEEP
TROUGH WILL BE ADVANCING EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...MIDWEST AND TENN VALLEY REGIONS...WITH A RIDGE AXIS
POSITIONED ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AN ANOMALOUSLY WARM AND
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW BOTH IN THE LOW LEVELS AND ALOFT WILL BE IN
PLACE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. DESPITE EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE CLOSE TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH
LOWER TO MID 50S FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY SOUTH AND EAST.

SOUTHERLY WIND FIELD WILL BE INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
STRONG WINDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND AREAS
SUSCEPTIBLE TO SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW. HOW STRONG WIND SPEEDS END UP
IN VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL DEPEND ON DEGREE OF MIXING. SURGES OF
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION WILL LEAD TO OCCASIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL...WITH PWATS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO +4 TO +5 STDEV BY LATE
WEDNESDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG WITH SNOW MELT IN HIGHER TERRAIN
COULD LEAD TO SOME FLOODING. SEE HYDRO SECTION FOR DETAILS.

THERE ARE MODEL DISCREPANCIES WITH REGARDS TO TIMING...TRACK AND
STRENGTH OF THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE AREA...BUT THERE IS AT LEAST
GENERAL CONSENSUS THAT THAT LOW WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST
AND DEEPEN IN THE PROCESS. A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE LOW LOOKS
TO CROSS OUR REGION FROM WEST TO EAST SOMETIME EARLY CHRISTMAS
MORNING. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BURST
OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. STEADY RAINFALL WILL TAPER OFF TO
SCATTERED VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS CHRISTMAS
MORNING. AS THE LOW DEEPENS FURTHER ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON
CHRISTMAS DAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIALLY STRONG WINDS COULD BE
MORE WIDESPREAD IN THE WESTERLY FLOW WITH BETTER MIXING. HIGH TEMPS
WILL LIKELY OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY ON CHRISTMAS...WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE DEVELOPING BRISK WESTERLY WIND.

OTHER THAN A FEW UPSLOPE/LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FOR THE REST OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL TURN MUCH COLDER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS...BUT WILL STILL BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. A WEAKER DISTURBANCE WITH LIMITED MOISTURE
MAY BRING SOME RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WITH LIGHT QPF.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS SOUTHEAST QUEBEC
AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD IN BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TONIGHT.

SOLID BATCH OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...WITH CIGS IN MVFR
RANGE. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO BRUSH THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA...OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 16Z-18Z FOR KALB/KPOU/KPSF
WITH MVFR VSBY/CIGS. LESS MOISTURE ANTICIPATED FARTHER NORTH
AROUND KGFL...SO WILL ONLY MENTION VCSH THERE. CIGS EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE TO VFR RANGE AFTER 18Z...EXCEPT FOR KPSF WHERE MVFR CIGS
SHOULD PREVAIL. CLOUDS MAY TEND TO BREAK UP TOWARDS EVENING...BUT
EXPECTING BKN CIGS TO PREVAIL.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY LESS THAN 5 KTS THROUGH PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. DEFINITE RA.
CHRISTMAS DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 0.75 INCH TO 1.5 INCHES ARE LIKELY ALONG WITH
SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT WHICH RAISES THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING
AND SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES OF LARGER STEM RIVERS. MMEFS
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE BEST CHANCES FOR MINOR FLOODING WOULD BE
FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY THROUGH WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. IT IS TOO
EARLY TO ISSUE ANY FLOOD WATCHES...HOWEVER WILL MENTION IN THE HWO
AT THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...KL/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...NAS








000
FXUS61 KALY 211401
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
901 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...
BRINGING SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW TO PARTS OF EASTERN NEW YORK
AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. MOSTLY CLOUDY AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH SOME LIGHT
MIXED PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT...AND A PERIOD OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 9 AM EST...VERY LIGHT SNOW GRAINS HAVE SPREAD NORTH AND WEST
INTO THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION...AND REMAIN FOR AREAS TO THE S
AND E. ACCUMS HAVE BEEN VERY LIGHT DUE TO THE GRAINY
NATURE...GENERALLY ONLY ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH AND WEST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...COMBINED WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO
THE SOUTH...SHOULD KEEP LIGHT SNOW GRAINS/FLURRIES ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH AT LEAST NOON BEFORE DIMINISHING FROM NW TO SE.
AGAIN...ANY ACCUMS SHOULD BE A COATING TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH.

DESPITE HOW LIGHT THE SNOW IS...HAVE HAD REPORTS OF SLIPPERY
TRAVEL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY EARLIER THIS
MORNING. THIS MAY ALSO BE THE CASE FURTHER N AND W INTO THE
CAPITAL REGION...SO HAVE ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
THROUGH NOON TO ADDRESS THIS POTENTIAL.

OTHERWISE...THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION DESCRIBES THE
SYNOPTIC/MESOSCALE SITUATION...

LITTLE LOW LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SEEN ON KOKX RADAR JUST SOUTH OF
EASTERN LONG ISLAND...ASSOCIATED WITH SOME WEAK UPPER ENERGY
TRACKING OFFSHORE. ANOTHER WEAK UPPER IMPULSE IN THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES...WITH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS TRACKING INTO OUR
REGION THROUGH THE DAY. LIGHT SNOW HAS SPREAD INLAND INTO PARTS OF
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
TACONICS... ALTHOUGH THE MOISTURE IS SO SHALLOW AND AT SUCH LOW
LEVELS...AREA RADARS ARE NOT FULLY PICKING UP ON THE AREAL EXTENT
AND INTENSITY OF THE SNOW.

SOME GUIDANCE IS RESOLVING THESE SMALL SCALE FEATURES AND
SUGGESTING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW IN PARTS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...SOUTHERN TACONICS...NW CT AND THE SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES.
SO...HIGH CHANCES TO LIKELY IN SOME AREAS THROUGH THIS MORNING IN
THOSE AREAS.

SOME LIGHT SNOW GRAINS/FLURRIES EVEN INTO THE MOHAWK
VALLEY...CAPITAL DISTRICT AND EASTERN CATSKILLS...WITH CHANCES FOR
BRIEF INTERVALS OF LIGHT SNOW IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN TACONICS AND NORTHERN BERKSHIRES. WITH ALL THE CLOUD
COVER THROUGH THE DAY... HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ON THE COOLER
SIDE OF GUIDANCE. HIGHS AROUND 30 TO THE MID 30S...SOME 20S IN
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SOME
BRIEF BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS...BUT NOT ENOUGH
TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP MUCH. WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT
WINDS...LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S...SOME UPPER TEENS IN THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. WARM ADVECTION SLOWLY STRENGTHENS THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARMING. LIGHT
WIND FLOW THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO
MIX OUT CLOUD COVER...BUT SOUTHERLY WINDS COULD HELP ANY CLEARING
TO THE SOUTH SPREAD SLOWLY NORTH...UNTIL THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING SYSTEM FROM THE WEST SPREAD OVER
THE REGION. STILL...WITH ALL THE CLOUD COVER...HIGHS MONDAY IN THE
30S.

SOUTHERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW SLOWLY INCREASES MONDAY NIGHT AS
DOES WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. LOW LEVEL RIDGING IS
EXPECTED TO BE ANCHORED IN SE CANADA...SO SURFACE FLOW SHOULD BE
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST. AGEOSTROPHIC LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE EAST
AND NORTHEAST SUGGEST THAT ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THAT DEVELOPS
IN THE REGION COULD HELP TEMPERATURES FALL TO WET BULB LEVELS...
WHICH WOULD SUPPORT SNOW AND/OR MIXED PRECIPITATION IN SOME
AREAS...INCLUDING A CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT ION THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S...JUST ABOVE FREEZING
IN MUCH OF THE HUDSON VALLEY...BUT POTENTIALLY CLOSE TO FREEZING
IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. NO WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES YET...WITH
JUST CHANCES FOR FREEZING RAIN BUT WILL INCLUDE IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK BECAUSE HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED IF FREEZING RAIN
BECOMES LIKELY IN SOME AREAS AS THE EVENT NEARS.

ALL PRECIPITATION TRENDS TO ALL RAIN TUESDAY AND SLOWLY INCREASES
IN COVERAGE THROUGH TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS WARM ADVECTION
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT STRENGTHEN. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 40S...BUT
AROUND 40 IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE
MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ACTIVE AND CHANGEABLE WEATHER EXPECTED FROM CHRISTMAS EVE TO
CHRISTMAS DAY...AS A STORM STORM SYSTEM WITH POSSIBLE MULTIPLE
HAZARDS AFFECTS THE REGION. THE MAIN IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS. WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE A MAIN HAZARD WITH THIS SYSTEM.

BY CHRISTMAS EVE DAY OUR REGION SHOULD BE FIRMLY ESTABLISHED IN A
WARM SECTOR ASSOCIATED WITH A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN. A DEEP
TROUGH WILL BE ADVANCING EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...MIDWEST AND TENN VALLEY REGIONS...WITH A RIDGE AXIS
POSITIONED ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AN ANOMALOUSLY WARM AND
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW BOTH IN THE LOW LEVELS AND ALOFT WILL BE IN
PLACE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. DESPITE EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE CLOSE TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH
LOWER TO MID 50S FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY SOUTH AND EAST.

SOUTHERLY WIND FIELD WILL BE INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
STRONG WINDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND AREAS
SUSCEPTIBLE TO SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW. HOW STRONG WIND SPEEDS END UP
IN VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL DEPEND ON DEGREE OF MIXING. SURGES OF
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION WILL LEAD TO OCCASIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL...WITH PWATS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO +4 TO +5 STDEV BY LATE
WEDNESDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG WITH SNOW MELT IN HIGHER TERRAIN
COULD LEAD TO SOME FLOODING. SEE HYDRO SECTION FOR DETAILS.

THERE ARE MODEL DISCREPANCIES WITH REGARDS TO TIMING...TRACK AND
STRENGTH OF THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE AREA...BUT THERE IS AT LEAST
GENERAL CONSENSUS THAT THAT LOW WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST
AND DEEPEN IN THE PROCESS. A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE LOW LOOKS
TO CROSS OUR REGION FROM WEST TO EAST SOMETIME EARLY CHRISTMAS
MORNING. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BURST
OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. STEADY RAINFALL WILL TAPER OFF TO
SCATTERED VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS CHRISTMAS
MORNING. AS THE LOW DEEPENS FURTHER ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON
CHRISTMAS DAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIALLY STRONG WINDS COULD BE
MORE WIDESPREAD IN THE WESTERLY FLOW WITH BETTER MIXING. HIGH TEMPS
WILL LIKELY OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY ON CHRISTMAS...WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE DEVELOPING BRISK WESTERLY WIND.

OTHER THAN A FEW UPSLOPE/LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FOR THE REST OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL TURN MUCH COLDER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS...BUT WILL STILL BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. A WEAKER DISTURBANCE WITH LIMITED MOISTURE
MAY BRING SOME RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WITH LIGHT QPF.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS SOUTHEAST QUEBEC
AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD IN BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TONIGHT.

SOLID BATCH OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...WITH CIGS IN MVFR
RANGE. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO BRUSH THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA...OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 16Z-18Z FOR KALB/KPOU/KPSF
WITH MVFR VSBY/CIGS. LESS MOISTURE ANTICIPATED FARTHER NORTH
AROUND KGFL...SO WILL ONLY MENTION VCSH THERE. CIGS EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE TO VFR RANGE AFTER 18Z...EXCEPT FOR KPSF WHERE MVFR CIGS
SHOULD PREVAIL. CLOUDS MAY TEND TO BREAK UP TOWARDS EVENING...BUT
EXPECTING BKN CIGS TO PREVAIL.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY LESS THAN 5 KTS THROUGH PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. DEFINITE RA.
CHRISTMAS DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 0.75 INCH TO 1.5 INCHES ARE LIKELY ALONG WITH
SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT WHICH RAISES THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING
AND SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES OF LARGER STEM RIVERS. MMEFS
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE BEST CHANCES FOR MINOR FLOODING WOULD BE
FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY THROUGH WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. IT IS TOO
EARLY TO ISSUE ANY FLOOD WATCHES...HOWEVER WILL MENTION IN THE HWO
AT THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...KL/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...NAS







000
FXUS61 KBOX 211154
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
654 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL AFFECT AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE MA
TURNPIKE THIS MORNING...EXCEPT IT WILL BE MILD ENOUGH FOR RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND BRINGING ANOTHER PERIOD OF
PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. A MUCH STRONGER STORM
PASSING WEST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY
WINDS AND COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRY BUT VERY WINDY CONDITIONS FOLLOW FOR
CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

700 PM UPDATE...

VERY LITTLE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AS OVERALL TREND IS ON TRACK
FOR THIS MORNING. RADAR ECHOES LOOK A LITTLE DECEIVING AS SNOW HAS
SPREAD ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND PER OBS.
ANTICIPATE MORE WIDE SPREAD BUT LIGHT SNOW OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO OUTSIDE OF THE COASTAL FRONT...WHICH IS DRAPED OVER GHG-TAN-
UUU.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

APPROACHING SHORTWAVE HAS ALLOWED AN AREA LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO
EXPAND SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE VERY EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS DID EXTEND INTO NORTHERN MA.  RADAR IMAGERY ACTUALLY
OVER SHOOTING SOME OF THE ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHERN CT...BASED ON
OBSERVATIONS.  THE RAIN/SNOW LINE RUNS ROUGHLY FROM NEWPORT...TO
TAUNTON AND JUST NORTH OF MARSHFIELD.  OVERALL...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH
CHANGE IN THE RAIN/SNOW LINE THIS MORNING BASED ON THERMAL PROFILES
AND POSITIONING OF THE COASTAL FRONT.

MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS JUST HOW MUCH SNOW OCCURS THIS MORNING WITH THE
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS CT.  GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE...BEST
FORCING WILL BE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE AND ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHERN CT/RI.  WE WILL FORECAST 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW
ACROSS THIS REGION...BUT A FEW ISOLATED 3 INCH AMOUNTS CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT. MEANWHILE...AREAS NORTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE WILL BE
REMOVED FROM THE BEST FORCING...BUT STILL SEE SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS.  ACCUMS IN THIS AREA LIKELY TO BE A DUSTING TO LESS THAN AN
INCH.

ALSO...SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MA IS
BEING ENHANCED FROM THE COASTAL FRONT.  A LOT OF THIS PRECIP WILL
BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS PLYMOUTH AND EVEN INTO
PORTIONS OF BRISTOL COUNTY...POINTS SOUTH AND EAST.  HOWEVER...AT
LEAST THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHEAST MA SHOULD SEE SNOW
SHOWERS.  WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON IF COASTAL FRONT SHIFTS
SLIGHTLY THIS MORNING.  IT COULD MEAN THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN AN AREA
GETTING MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS OR PERHAPS AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW.
OVERALL...DO NOT EXPECT THE COASTAL FRONT TO MOVE TOO MUCH THIS
MORNING...BUT JUST A FEW MILES CAN MAKE DIFFERENCE FOR A
PARTICULARLY NEIGHBORHOOD.

BULK OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE THIS MORNING WITH THE SHORTWAVE.
HOWEVER...ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/WEAK LIFT WILL REMAIN THIS
AFTERNOON FOR AT LEAST THIS RISK OF SCATTERED PRECIPITATION AND WILL
MAINTAIN SOME POPS.  HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...

A RATHER CLOUDY AND RAW NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  WHILE
THERE IS NOT A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TO TRIGGER A LOT OF
PRECIPITATION...PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/WEAK SHALLOW LIFT
REMAINS.  THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWER
FROM TIME TO TIME.  PTYPE...WOULD BE MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS EXCEPT TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF A NEWPORT...TO TAUNTON...TO JUST NORTH OF
MARSHFIELD LINE.  AGAIN...MUCH OF THE NIGHT WILL PROBABLY END UP
DRY...BUT JUST THE RISK FOR A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* WEAK SHORTWAVE ON MON NIGHT/TUESDAY COULD BRING WINTRY
  MIX/FREEZING RAIN TO THE INTERIOR
* ANOMALOUS SYSTEM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING HEAVY
  RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS AROUND CHRISTMAS
  EVE
* BLUSTERY BUT AIRMASS WILL BE DRYING OUT ON CHRISTMAS DAY

OVERVIEW...

THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES OFFER A REASONABLY SIMILAR AND PREDICTABLE
LARGER SCALE MID TO UPPER LEVEL PATTERN EVOLUTION FOR MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK. THIS ACTIVE FLOW REGIME DEVELOPS SEVERAL MID-UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED/UNSETTLING LEAD SURFACE LOW/FRONTAL
SYSTEMS AND PCPN SWATHS PROGRESS STEADILY ACROSS THE LOWER 48. THE
FIRST AMPLIFIED/DEEP LEAD SYSTEM WORKS ACROSS THE ERN/NERN US INTO
ERN CANADA CHRISTMAS EVE INTO CHRISTMAS ALLOWING FOR A MOIST/WARMED
AIRMASS IN ADVANCE OF FRONTAL APPROACH WITH HEAVIEST LEAD QPF
POTENTIAL OVER NEW ENGLAND. BIGGEST QUESTION IS THE EVOLUTION OF THE
SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. 00Z GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON THE
STRENGTH OF THE LOW AND IS HAVING ISSUES ON HOW TO HANDLE ITS
EVOLUTION. THE EC AND GFS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE SYSTEM SLIGHTLY WITH
THE EC HAVING MORE OF A NEGATIVE TROUGH VS THE GFS. BELIEVE THE
UKMET IS A GOOD COMPROMISE AT IS WAS THE FIRST DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE ON TAMPERING DOWN THE FIRST MAIN LOW...WHILE THE CMC IS OUT
TO LUNCH. REGARDLESS THIS IS A VERY ANOMALOUS SYSTEM THAT IS ABOUT 4
STANDARD DEVIATIONS AWAY.

A SECONDARY SYSTEM DEEPENS ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS ON FRIDAY AND
WITH THE STUBBORN TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S...IT WILL PUSH A
SYSTEM TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM MAY
SUPPORT A MODEST SWATH OF OVERRUNNING SNOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.

DETAILS...

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST
MONDAY...AND WILL BE ON A DEVELOPING WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS LOW
REMAINS WEAK AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES SLOWLY NORTH MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. APPEARS THAT THERE IS DECENT WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS
WAVE. SEVERAL HI-RES GUIDANCE MODELS SHOW THAT THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR COLD AIR DAMMING ACROSS THE INTERIOR INTO TUESDAY.
BIGGEST QUESTION WILL BE IS THERE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR PRECIP DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. DUE TO A STRENGTHENING LLJ PROVIDING A GOOD SOURCE OF
LIFT ANTICIPATE PRECIP TO DEVELOP AND OVERSPREAD ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. IF THIS PLAYS OUT WITH COLD AIR DAMMING AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION...THEN WE COULD SEE FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE ACROSS THE I-91
CORRIDOR LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY...GOOD AMOUNT OF WARM AIR WILL PUSH SURFACE TEMPS ABOVE
FREEZING BY THE LATE MORNING ALLOWING FOR ANY PRECIP TO BE MORE OF
THE LIQUID VARIETY AHEAD OF THE CHRISTMAS EVE STORM. HOWEVER
GUIDANCE IS ALWAYS TOO FAST IN SCOURING TEMPS OUT ESP ACROSS THE CT
VALLEY SO WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS CLOSELY...ESP DUE TO LIGHT
WINDS AND THE HIGH IN EASTERN CANADA. A WINTER WX ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED FOR THE LIGHT ICING POTENTIAL.

WE COULD ALSO SEE SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS ON TUESDAY. SEE
BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SYSTEM LOW CONFIDENCE
ON DETAILS.

ANOMALOUS SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE WILL ROUND THE DEEP TROUGH AND
DEVELOP A SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THIS
SECONDARY LOW WILL STRENGTHEN AND PASS WEST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES TOWARDS EASTERN
CANADA SWINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.

STRONG SOUTHERLY JET OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH A GULF MOISTURE
CONNECTION WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON CHRISTMAS EVE. THIS
STRONG JET WILL YIELD FOR PCPN IN THE LIQUID VARIETY.  PW ANOMALIES
ARE BETWEEN +4 TO +5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL WHICH IS QUITE
ANOMALOUS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. IN FACT CURRENT PWATS ARE PROGGED
ABOVE 1.6 INCHES WITH MODEL QPF OVER 2 INCHES...AT THE VERY LEAST
COULD SEE URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. LATEST EC EVEN SHOWS
OVER 2.5 INCHES OF QPF...AND WITH THE TROPICAL CONNECTION AND STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW COULD SEE HIGHER AMOUNTS DUE TO TOPOGRAPHY
ENHANCEMENTS. RAINFALL RECORDS MAY FALL IF EVERYTHING FALLS INTO
PLACE.

AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL WARM SECTOR WED INTO
THUR MORNING ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. IN
FACT WE MAY BE CLOSE AT BREAKING RECORD HIGH TEMPS IF TEMPS WARM TO
60F OR ABOVE ON CHRISTMAS EVE. SINCE WE WILL BE IN THE WARM
SECTOR...AND SHOWALTERS CLOSE TO ZERO...ISOLATED THUNDER IS STILL
POSSIBLE.

STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE ECMWF SHOWS EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS 30-40 KNOTS ON WEDNESDAY
INCREASING TO 60-75 KNOTS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STRONG DOWNPOURS MAY
OVERCOME THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION AND BRING STRONG GUSTS OF AT LEAST
30-40 KNOTS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED IN SOME AREAS.

CHRISTMAS DAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH EARLY CHRISTMAS DAY...THE WEST
WINDS WILL HELP DRY THE AIRMASS ALLOWING FOR PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.
STRONG CAA ON THURSDAY WILL ALLOW DESCENT MIXING. WINDS IN THE SFC-
850 MB LAYER WILL BE 30-40 KNOTS AND POSSIBLY A LITTLE
HIGHER...WHICH WOULD REQUIRE A WIND ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

FRIDAY-SUNDAY...LOWER CONFIDENCE

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AND SHOULD BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND AT NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS
SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE WITH BORDERLINE VFR TO MARGINAL MVFR CIGS
NORTH OF THE PIKE THROUGH TONIGHT.  AN AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL
EXPAND MAINLY ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF THE PIKE THIS MORNING...BUT A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL STILL AFFECT NORTHERN MA.  VSBYS/CIGS MAY
BRIEFLY DROP TO IFR LEVELS IN NORTHERN CT/RI/SE MA.  PTYPE WILL BE
RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF PLYMOUTH COUNTY AND ONTO THE
CAPE/ISLANDS WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST.  BULK OF PRECIP THIS
MORNING...BUT A FEW LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  A FEW SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING BUT BULK OF ACTIVITY SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS THIS
MORNING MAY DROP AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW.  MVFR CONDITIONS DOMINATE
TODAY....BUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING IN SNOW SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY...MVFR CIGS CONTINUE IN RI/EASTERN MASS IN MARINE EAST FLOW.
VFR IN THE WEST.

TUESDAY...VFR WITH SCATTERED MVFR IN ANY RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS LOWERING TO IFR IN RAIN/HEAVY RAIN. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EAST-SOUTHEAST
SURFACE WINDS MAY GUST TO 35-45 KNOTS. WINDS AT 2000 FEET AGL WILL
REACH 50-60 KNOTS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY NIGHT CREATING LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONCERNS.

CHRISTMAS DAY...WEST WIND GUSTING 30-40 KNOTS. CONDITIONS IMPROVING
TO VFR AS THE WIND BRINGS IN COOLER DRIER AIR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS QUEBEC WILL RESULT IN NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS
THE WATERS THAT WILL GUST TO BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS.  THIS WILL
RESULT IN 2 TO 4 FOOT SEAS.  HOWEVER...NO HEADLINES PLANNED AS
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE

MONDAY...EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING AROUND 15 KNOTS OR LESS.
SEAS WILL HOLD AROUND 3-4 FEET...MAY INCREASE TO 5FT IN NORTHEAST
FLOW AS GUIDANCE MAY BE UNDERDONE.

TUESDAY... INCREASING EAST WINDS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5-6 FEET ON THE EXPOSED WATERS.  A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

WEDNESDAY...RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES PRODUCING POOR VISIBILITY.
INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS 20-25 SUSTAINED AND 40 KNOT GUSTS.  WINDS
SHOULD SHIFT TO SOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SOUTHWEST TOWARD THURSDAY
MORNING. RAIN WILL TAPER OFF WITH THE WIND SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST. SEAS
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD WITH 7-11 FEET HEIGHTS ON THE EXPOSED WATERS.
A GALE WARNING WILL BE NEEDED...WITH A LOW PROB OF A FEW STORM FORCE
GUSTS ACROSS THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS.

CHRISTMAS DAY... WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST 35-40
KNOTS...SO A CONTINUED GALE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED. SEAS OF 7-15 FEET
ARE POSSIBLE ON THE EXPOSED WATERS...AND 5 FEET IS POSSIBLE ON SOME
OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL OCCUR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. BREAKING
IT DOWN...ON TUESDAY HIGH TIDE AT BOSTON WILL BE 11.6 FT. THERE WILL
BE ONSHORE FLOW DURING THIS HIGH TIDE ALLOWING FOR MINOR SPLASHOVER.
IF WIND GUSTS INCREASE THEN COULD POSSIBLE SEE MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING.

ON WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL SWITCH TO A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DURING
THE DAY AND INCREASE QUICKLY FROM APPROACHING SYSTEM AND DECENT
PRESSURE FALLS. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE IN BOSTON IS 11.7 FT
AND WITH ANY STRENGTH ON THE EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL PUSH THE TIDE
OVER. RIGHT NOW BELIEVE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE
EAST COASTLINE.

WEDNESDAY EVENING...THE WIND GOES IN A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AND
THE TIDE WILL BE INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST. HIGH TIDE IN
PROVIDENCE WILL BE 5.2 FT. 925 MB LLJ STRENGTHENS TO 50-60 KTS WHICH
COULD PUSH A DECENT SURGE UP ALONG THE SOUTH COAST DURING THE TIME
OF HIGH TIDE. THINKING THAT MINOR COASTAL FLOODING COULD OCCUR BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT MODERATE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...ESP IF LLJ
STRENGTHENS EVEN MORE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...FRANK/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...FRANK/DUNTEN
MARINE...FRANK/DUNTEN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...STAFF




000
FXUS61 KBOX 211154
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
654 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL AFFECT AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE MA
TURNPIKE THIS MORNING...EXCEPT IT WILL BE MILD ENOUGH FOR RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND BRINGING ANOTHER PERIOD OF
PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. A MUCH STRONGER STORM
PASSING WEST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY
WINDS AND COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRY BUT VERY WINDY CONDITIONS FOLLOW FOR
CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

700 PM UPDATE...

VERY LITTLE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AS OVERALL TREND IS ON TRACK
FOR THIS MORNING. RADAR ECHOES LOOK A LITTLE DECEIVING AS SNOW HAS
SPREAD ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND PER OBS.
ANTICIPATE MORE WIDE SPREAD BUT LIGHT SNOW OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO OUTSIDE OF THE COASTAL FRONT...WHICH IS DRAPED OVER GHG-TAN-
UUU.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

APPROACHING SHORTWAVE HAS ALLOWED AN AREA LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO
EXPAND SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE VERY EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS DID EXTEND INTO NORTHERN MA.  RADAR IMAGERY ACTUALLY
OVER SHOOTING SOME OF THE ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHERN CT...BASED ON
OBSERVATIONS.  THE RAIN/SNOW LINE RUNS ROUGHLY FROM NEWPORT...TO
TAUNTON AND JUST NORTH OF MARSHFIELD.  OVERALL...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH
CHANGE IN THE RAIN/SNOW LINE THIS MORNING BASED ON THERMAL PROFILES
AND POSITIONING OF THE COASTAL FRONT.

MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS JUST HOW MUCH SNOW OCCURS THIS MORNING WITH THE
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS CT.  GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE...BEST
FORCING WILL BE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE AND ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHERN CT/RI.  WE WILL FORECAST 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW
ACROSS THIS REGION...BUT A FEW ISOLATED 3 INCH AMOUNTS CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT. MEANWHILE...AREAS NORTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE WILL BE
REMOVED FROM THE BEST FORCING...BUT STILL SEE SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS.  ACCUMS IN THIS AREA LIKELY TO BE A DUSTING TO LESS THAN AN
INCH.

ALSO...SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MA IS
BEING ENHANCED FROM THE COASTAL FRONT.  A LOT OF THIS PRECIP WILL
BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS PLYMOUTH AND EVEN INTO
PORTIONS OF BRISTOL COUNTY...POINTS SOUTH AND EAST.  HOWEVER...AT
LEAST THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHEAST MA SHOULD SEE SNOW
SHOWERS.  WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON IF COASTAL FRONT SHIFTS
SLIGHTLY THIS MORNING.  IT COULD MEAN THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN AN AREA
GETTING MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS OR PERHAPS AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW.
OVERALL...DO NOT EXPECT THE COASTAL FRONT TO MOVE TOO MUCH THIS
MORNING...BUT JUST A FEW MILES CAN MAKE DIFFERENCE FOR A
PARTICULARLY NEIGHBORHOOD.

BULK OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE THIS MORNING WITH THE SHORTWAVE.
HOWEVER...ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/WEAK LIFT WILL REMAIN THIS
AFTERNOON FOR AT LEAST THIS RISK OF SCATTERED PRECIPITATION AND WILL
MAINTAIN SOME POPS.  HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...

A RATHER CLOUDY AND RAW NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  WHILE
THERE IS NOT A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TO TRIGGER A LOT OF
PRECIPITATION...PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/WEAK SHALLOW LIFT
REMAINS.  THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWER
FROM TIME TO TIME.  PTYPE...WOULD BE MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS EXCEPT TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF A NEWPORT...TO TAUNTON...TO JUST NORTH OF
MARSHFIELD LINE.  AGAIN...MUCH OF THE NIGHT WILL PROBABLY END UP
DRY...BUT JUST THE RISK FOR A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* WEAK SHORTWAVE ON MON NIGHT/TUESDAY COULD BRING WINTRY
  MIX/FREEZING RAIN TO THE INTERIOR
* ANOMALOUS SYSTEM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING HEAVY
  RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS AROUND CHRISTMAS
  EVE
* BLUSTERY BUT AIRMASS WILL BE DRYING OUT ON CHRISTMAS DAY

OVERVIEW...

THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES OFFER A REASONABLY SIMILAR AND PREDICTABLE
LARGER SCALE MID TO UPPER LEVEL PATTERN EVOLUTION FOR MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK. THIS ACTIVE FLOW REGIME DEVELOPS SEVERAL MID-UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED/UNSETTLING LEAD SURFACE LOW/FRONTAL
SYSTEMS AND PCPN SWATHS PROGRESS STEADILY ACROSS THE LOWER 48. THE
FIRST AMPLIFIED/DEEP LEAD SYSTEM WORKS ACROSS THE ERN/NERN US INTO
ERN CANADA CHRISTMAS EVE INTO CHRISTMAS ALLOWING FOR A MOIST/WARMED
AIRMASS IN ADVANCE OF FRONTAL APPROACH WITH HEAVIEST LEAD QPF
POTENTIAL OVER NEW ENGLAND. BIGGEST QUESTION IS THE EVOLUTION OF THE
SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. 00Z GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON THE
STRENGTH OF THE LOW AND IS HAVING ISSUES ON HOW TO HANDLE ITS
EVOLUTION. THE EC AND GFS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE SYSTEM SLIGHTLY WITH
THE EC HAVING MORE OF A NEGATIVE TROUGH VS THE GFS. BELIEVE THE
UKMET IS A GOOD COMPROMISE AT IS WAS THE FIRST DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE ON TAMPERING DOWN THE FIRST MAIN LOW...WHILE THE CMC IS OUT
TO LUNCH. REGARDLESS THIS IS A VERY ANOMALOUS SYSTEM THAT IS ABOUT 4
STANDARD DEVIATIONS AWAY.

A SECONDARY SYSTEM DEEPENS ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS ON FRIDAY AND
WITH THE STUBBORN TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S...IT WILL PUSH A
SYSTEM TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM MAY
SUPPORT A MODEST SWATH OF OVERRUNNING SNOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.

DETAILS...

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST
MONDAY...AND WILL BE ON A DEVELOPING WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS LOW
REMAINS WEAK AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES SLOWLY NORTH MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. APPEARS THAT THERE IS DECENT WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS
WAVE. SEVERAL HI-RES GUIDANCE MODELS SHOW THAT THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR COLD AIR DAMMING ACROSS THE INTERIOR INTO TUESDAY.
BIGGEST QUESTION WILL BE IS THERE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR PRECIP DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. DUE TO A STRENGTHENING LLJ PROVIDING A GOOD SOURCE OF
LIFT ANTICIPATE PRECIP TO DEVELOP AND OVERSPREAD ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. IF THIS PLAYS OUT WITH COLD AIR DAMMING AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION...THEN WE COULD SEE FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE ACROSS THE I-91
CORRIDOR LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY...GOOD AMOUNT OF WARM AIR WILL PUSH SURFACE TEMPS ABOVE
FREEZING BY THE LATE MORNING ALLOWING FOR ANY PRECIP TO BE MORE OF
THE LIQUID VARIETY AHEAD OF THE CHRISTMAS EVE STORM. HOWEVER
GUIDANCE IS ALWAYS TOO FAST IN SCOURING TEMPS OUT ESP ACROSS THE CT
VALLEY SO WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS CLOSELY...ESP DUE TO LIGHT
WINDS AND THE HIGH IN EASTERN CANADA. A WINTER WX ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED FOR THE LIGHT ICING POTENTIAL.

WE COULD ALSO SEE SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS ON TUESDAY. SEE
BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SYSTEM LOW CONFIDENCE
ON DETAILS.

ANOMALOUS SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE WILL ROUND THE DEEP TROUGH AND
DEVELOP A SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THIS
SECONDARY LOW WILL STRENGTHEN AND PASS WEST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES TOWARDS EASTERN
CANADA SWINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.

STRONG SOUTHERLY JET OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH A GULF MOISTURE
CONNECTION WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON CHRISTMAS EVE. THIS
STRONG JET WILL YIELD FOR PCPN IN THE LIQUID VARIETY.  PW ANOMALIES
ARE BETWEEN +4 TO +5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL WHICH IS QUITE
ANOMALOUS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. IN FACT CURRENT PWATS ARE PROGGED
ABOVE 1.6 INCHES WITH MODEL QPF OVER 2 INCHES...AT THE VERY LEAST
COULD SEE URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. LATEST EC EVEN SHOWS
OVER 2.5 INCHES OF QPF...AND WITH THE TROPICAL CONNECTION AND STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW COULD SEE HIGHER AMOUNTS DUE TO TOPOGRAPHY
ENHANCEMENTS. RAINFALL RECORDS MAY FALL IF EVERYTHING FALLS INTO
PLACE.

AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL WARM SECTOR WED INTO
THUR MORNING ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. IN
FACT WE MAY BE CLOSE AT BREAKING RECORD HIGH TEMPS IF TEMPS WARM TO
60F OR ABOVE ON CHRISTMAS EVE. SINCE WE WILL BE IN THE WARM
SECTOR...AND SHOWALTERS CLOSE TO ZERO...ISOLATED THUNDER IS STILL
POSSIBLE.

STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE ECMWF SHOWS EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS 30-40 KNOTS ON WEDNESDAY
INCREASING TO 60-75 KNOTS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STRONG DOWNPOURS MAY
OVERCOME THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION AND BRING STRONG GUSTS OF AT LEAST
30-40 KNOTS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED IN SOME AREAS.

CHRISTMAS DAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH EARLY CHRISTMAS DAY...THE WEST
WINDS WILL HELP DRY THE AIRMASS ALLOWING FOR PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.
STRONG CAA ON THURSDAY WILL ALLOW DESCENT MIXING. WINDS IN THE SFC-
850 MB LAYER WILL BE 30-40 KNOTS AND POSSIBLY A LITTLE
HIGHER...WHICH WOULD REQUIRE A WIND ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

FRIDAY-SUNDAY...LOWER CONFIDENCE

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AND SHOULD BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND AT NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS
SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE WITH BORDERLINE VFR TO MARGINAL MVFR CIGS
NORTH OF THE PIKE THROUGH TONIGHT.  AN AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL
EXPAND MAINLY ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF THE PIKE THIS MORNING...BUT A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL STILL AFFECT NORTHERN MA.  VSBYS/CIGS MAY
BRIEFLY DROP TO IFR LEVELS IN NORTHERN CT/RI/SE MA.  PTYPE WILL BE
RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF PLYMOUTH COUNTY AND ONTO THE
CAPE/ISLANDS WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST.  BULK OF PRECIP THIS
MORNING...BUT A FEW LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  A FEW SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING BUT BULK OF ACTIVITY SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS THIS
MORNING MAY DROP AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW.  MVFR CONDITIONS DOMINATE
TODAY....BUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING IN SNOW SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY...MVFR CIGS CONTINUE IN RI/EASTERN MASS IN MARINE EAST FLOW.
VFR IN THE WEST.

TUESDAY...VFR WITH SCATTERED MVFR IN ANY RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS LOWERING TO IFR IN RAIN/HEAVY RAIN. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EAST-SOUTHEAST
SURFACE WINDS MAY GUST TO 35-45 KNOTS. WINDS AT 2000 FEET AGL WILL
REACH 50-60 KNOTS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY NIGHT CREATING LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONCERNS.

CHRISTMAS DAY...WEST WIND GUSTING 30-40 KNOTS. CONDITIONS IMPROVING
TO VFR AS THE WIND BRINGS IN COOLER DRIER AIR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS QUEBEC WILL RESULT IN NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS
THE WATERS THAT WILL GUST TO BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS.  THIS WILL
RESULT IN 2 TO 4 FOOT SEAS.  HOWEVER...NO HEADLINES PLANNED AS
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE

MONDAY...EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING AROUND 15 KNOTS OR LESS.
SEAS WILL HOLD AROUND 3-4 FEET...MAY INCREASE TO 5FT IN NORTHEAST
FLOW AS GUIDANCE MAY BE UNDERDONE.

TUESDAY... INCREASING EAST WINDS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5-6 FEET ON THE EXPOSED WATERS.  A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

WEDNESDAY...RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES PRODUCING POOR VISIBILITY.
INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS 20-25 SUSTAINED AND 40 KNOT GUSTS.  WINDS
SHOULD SHIFT TO SOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SOUTHWEST TOWARD THURSDAY
MORNING. RAIN WILL TAPER OFF WITH THE WIND SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST. SEAS
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD WITH 7-11 FEET HEIGHTS ON THE EXPOSED WATERS.
A GALE WARNING WILL BE NEEDED...WITH A LOW PROB OF A FEW STORM FORCE
GUSTS ACROSS THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS.

CHRISTMAS DAY... WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST 35-40
KNOTS...SO A CONTINUED GALE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED. SEAS OF 7-15 FEET
ARE POSSIBLE ON THE EXPOSED WATERS...AND 5 FEET IS POSSIBLE ON SOME
OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL OCCUR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. BREAKING
IT DOWN...ON TUESDAY HIGH TIDE AT BOSTON WILL BE 11.6 FT. THERE WILL
BE ONSHORE FLOW DURING THIS HIGH TIDE ALLOWING FOR MINOR SPLASHOVER.
IF WIND GUSTS INCREASE THEN COULD POSSIBLE SEE MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING.

ON WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL SWITCH TO A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DURING
THE DAY AND INCREASE QUICKLY FROM APPROACHING SYSTEM AND DECENT
PRESSURE FALLS. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE IN BOSTON IS 11.7 FT
AND WITH ANY STRENGTH ON THE EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL PUSH THE TIDE
OVER. RIGHT NOW BELIEVE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE
EAST COASTLINE.

WEDNESDAY EVENING...THE WIND GOES IN A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AND
THE TIDE WILL BE INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST. HIGH TIDE IN
PROVIDENCE WILL BE 5.2 FT. 925 MB LLJ STRENGTHENS TO 50-60 KTS WHICH
COULD PUSH A DECENT SURGE UP ALONG THE SOUTH COAST DURING THE TIME
OF HIGH TIDE. THINKING THAT MINOR COASTAL FLOODING COULD OCCUR BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT MODERATE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...ESP IF LLJ
STRENGTHENS EVEN MORE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...FRANK/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...FRANK/DUNTEN
MARINE...FRANK/DUNTEN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...STAFF




000
FXUS61 KBOX 211154
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
654 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL AFFECT AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE MA
TURNPIKE THIS MORNING...EXCEPT IT WILL BE MILD ENOUGH FOR RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND BRINGING ANOTHER PERIOD OF
PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. A MUCH STRONGER STORM
PASSING WEST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY
WINDS AND COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRY BUT VERY WINDY CONDITIONS FOLLOW FOR
CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

700 PM UPDATE...

VERY LITTLE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AS OVERALL TREND IS ON TRACK
FOR THIS MORNING. RADAR ECHOES LOOK A LITTLE DECEIVING AS SNOW HAS
SPREAD ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND PER OBS.
ANTICIPATE MORE WIDE SPREAD BUT LIGHT SNOW OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO OUTSIDE OF THE COASTAL FRONT...WHICH IS DRAPED OVER GHG-TAN-
UUU.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

APPROACHING SHORTWAVE HAS ALLOWED AN AREA LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO
EXPAND SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE VERY EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS DID EXTEND INTO NORTHERN MA.  RADAR IMAGERY ACTUALLY
OVER SHOOTING SOME OF THE ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHERN CT...BASED ON
OBSERVATIONS.  THE RAIN/SNOW LINE RUNS ROUGHLY FROM NEWPORT...TO
TAUNTON AND JUST NORTH OF MARSHFIELD.  OVERALL...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH
CHANGE IN THE RAIN/SNOW LINE THIS MORNING BASED ON THERMAL PROFILES
AND POSITIONING OF THE COASTAL FRONT.

MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS JUST HOW MUCH SNOW OCCURS THIS MORNING WITH THE
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS CT.  GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE...BEST
FORCING WILL BE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE AND ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHERN CT/RI.  WE WILL FORECAST 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW
ACROSS THIS REGION...BUT A FEW ISOLATED 3 INCH AMOUNTS CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT. MEANWHILE...AREAS NORTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE WILL BE
REMOVED FROM THE BEST FORCING...BUT STILL SEE SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS.  ACCUMS IN THIS AREA LIKELY TO BE A DUSTING TO LESS THAN AN
INCH.

ALSO...SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MA IS
BEING ENHANCED FROM THE COASTAL FRONT.  A LOT OF THIS PRECIP WILL
BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS PLYMOUTH AND EVEN INTO
PORTIONS OF BRISTOL COUNTY...POINTS SOUTH AND EAST.  HOWEVER...AT
LEAST THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHEAST MA SHOULD SEE SNOW
SHOWERS.  WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON IF COASTAL FRONT SHIFTS
SLIGHTLY THIS MORNING.  IT COULD MEAN THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN AN AREA
GETTING MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS OR PERHAPS AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW.
OVERALL...DO NOT EXPECT THE COASTAL FRONT TO MOVE TOO MUCH THIS
MORNING...BUT JUST A FEW MILES CAN MAKE DIFFERENCE FOR A
PARTICULARLY NEIGHBORHOOD.

BULK OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE THIS MORNING WITH THE SHORTWAVE.
HOWEVER...ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/WEAK LIFT WILL REMAIN THIS
AFTERNOON FOR AT LEAST THIS RISK OF SCATTERED PRECIPITATION AND WILL
MAINTAIN SOME POPS.  HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...

A RATHER CLOUDY AND RAW NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  WHILE
THERE IS NOT A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TO TRIGGER A LOT OF
PRECIPITATION...PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/WEAK SHALLOW LIFT
REMAINS.  THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWER
FROM TIME TO TIME.  PTYPE...WOULD BE MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS EXCEPT TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF A NEWPORT...TO TAUNTON...TO JUST NORTH OF
MARSHFIELD LINE.  AGAIN...MUCH OF THE NIGHT WILL PROBABLY END UP
DRY...BUT JUST THE RISK FOR A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* WEAK SHORTWAVE ON MON NIGHT/TUESDAY COULD BRING WINTRY
  MIX/FREEZING RAIN TO THE INTERIOR
* ANOMALOUS SYSTEM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING HEAVY
  RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS AROUND CHRISTMAS
  EVE
* BLUSTERY BUT AIRMASS WILL BE DRYING OUT ON CHRISTMAS DAY

OVERVIEW...

THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES OFFER A REASONABLY SIMILAR AND PREDICTABLE
LARGER SCALE MID TO UPPER LEVEL PATTERN EVOLUTION FOR MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK. THIS ACTIVE FLOW REGIME DEVELOPS SEVERAL MID-UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED/UNSETTLING LEAD SURFACE LOW/FRONTAL
SYSTEMS AND PCPN SWATHS PROGRESS STEADILY ACROSS THE LOWER 48. THE
FIRST AMPLIFIED/DEEP LEAD SYSTEM WORKS ACROSS THE ERN/NERN US INTO
ERN CANADA CHRISTMAS EVE INTO CHRISTMAS ALLOWING FOR A MOIST/WARMED
AIRMASS IN ADVANCE OF FRONTAL APPROACH WITH HEAVIEST LEAD QPF
POTENTIAL OVER NEW ENGLAND. BIGGEST QUESTION IS THE EVOLUTION OF THE
SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. 00Z GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON THE
STRENGTH OF THE LOW AND IS HAVING ISSUES ON HOW TO HANDLE ITS
EVOLUTION. THE EC AND GFS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE SYSTEM SLIGHTLY WITH
THE EC HAVING MORE OF A NEGATIVE TROUGH VS THE GFS. BELIEVE THE
UKMET IS A GOOD COMPROMISE AT IS WAS THE FIRST DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE ON TAMPERING DOWN THE FIRST MAIN LOW...WHILE THE CMC IS OUT
TO LUNCH. REGARDLESS THIS IS A VERY ANOMALOUS SYSTEM THAT IS ABOUT 4
STANDARD DEVIATIONS AWAY.

A SECONDARY SYSTEM DEEPENS ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS ON FRIDAY AND
WITH THE STUBBORN TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S...IT WILL PUSH A
SYSTEM TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM MAY
SUPPORT A MODEST SWATH OF OVERRUNNING SNOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.

DETAILS...

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST
MONDAY...AND WILL BE ON A DEVELOPING WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS LOW
REMAINS WEAK AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES SLOWLY NORTH MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. APPEARS THAT THERE IS DECENT WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS
WAVE. SEVERAL HI-RES GUIDANCE MODELS SHOW THAT THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR COLD AIR DAMMING ACROSS THE INTERIOR INTO TUESDAY.
BIGGEST QUESTION WILL BE IS THERE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR PRECIP DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. DUE TO A STRENGTHENING LLJ PROVIDING A GOOD SOURCE OF
LIFT ANTICIPATE PRECIP TO DEVELOP AND OVERSPREAD ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. IF THIS PLAYS OUT WITH COLD AIR DAMMING AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION...THEN WE COULD SEE FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE ACROSS THE I-91
CORRIDOR LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY...GOOD AMOUNT OF WARM AIR WILL PUSH SURFACE TEMPS ABOVE
FREEZING BY THE LATE MORNING ALLOWING FOR ANY PRECIP TO BE MORE OF
THE LIQUID VARIETY AHEAD OF THE CHRISTMAS EVE STORM. HOWEVER
GUIDANCE IS ALWAYS TOO FAST IN SCOURING TEMPS OUT ESP ACROSS THE CT
VALLEY SO WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS CLOSELY...ESP DUE TO LIGHT
WINDS AND THE HIGH IN EASTERN CANADA. A WINTER WX ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED FOR THE LIGHT ICING POTENTIAL.

WE COULD ALSO SEE SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS ON TUESDAY. SEE
BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SYSTEM LOW CONFIDENCE
ON DETAILS.

ANOMALOUS SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE WILL ROUND THE DEEP TROUGH AND
DEVELOP A SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THIS
SECONDARY LOW WILL STRENGTHEN AND PASS WEST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES TOWARDS EASTERN
CANADA SWINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.

STRONG SOUTHERLY JET OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH A GULF MOISTURE
CONNECTION WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON CHRISTMAS EVE. THIS
STRONG JET WILL YIELD FOR PCPN IN THE LIQUID VARIETY.  PW ANOMALIES
ARE BETWEEN +4 TO +5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL WHICH IS QUITE
ANOMALOUS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. IN FACT CURRENT PWATS ARE PROGGED
ABOVE 1.6 INCHES WITH MODEL QPF OVER 2 INCHES...AT THE VERY LEAST
COULD SEE URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. LATEST EC EVEN SHOWS
OVER 2.5 INCHES OF QPF...AND WITH THE TROPICAL CONNECTION AND STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW COULD SEE HIGHER AMOUNTS DUE TO TOPOGRAPHY
ENHANCEMENTS. RAINFALL RECORDS MAY FALL IF EVERYTHING FALLS INTO
PLACE.

AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL WARM SECTOR WED INTO
THUR MORNING ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. IN
FACT WE MAY BE CLOSE AT BREAKING RECORD HIGH TEMPS IF TEMPS WARM TO
60F OR ABOVE ON CHRISTMAS EVE. SINCE WE WILL BE IN THE WARM
SECTOR...AND SHOWALTERS CLOSE TO ZERO...ISOLATED THUNDER IS STILL
POSSIBLE.

STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE ECMWF SHOWS EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS 30-40 KNOTS ON WEDNESDAY
INCREASING TO 60-75 KNOTS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STRONG DOWNPOURS MAY
OVERCOME THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION AND BRING STRONG GUSTS OF AT LEAST
30-40 KNOTS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED IN SOME AREAS.

CHRISTMAS DAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH EARLY CHRISTMAS DAY...THE WEST
WINDS WILL HELP DRY THE AIRMASS ALLOWING FOR PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.
STRONG CAA ON THURSDAY WILL ALLOW DESCENT MIXING. WINDS IN THE SFC-
850 MB LAYER WILL BE 30-40 KNOTS AND POSSIBLY A LITTLE
HIGHER...WHICH WOULD REQUIRE A WIND ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

FRIDAY-SUNDAY...LOWER CONFIDENCE

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AND SHOULD BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND AT NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS
SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE WITH BORDERLINE VFR TO MARGINAL MVFR CIGS
NORTH OF THE PIKE THROUGH TONIGHT.  AN AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL
EXPAND MAINLY ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF THE PIKE THIS MORNING...BUT A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL STILL AFFECT NORTHERN MA.  VSBYS/CIGS MAY
BRIEFLY DROP TO IFR LEVELS IN NORTHERN CT/RI/SE MA.  PTYPE WILL BE
RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF PLYMOUTH COUNTY AND ONTO THE
CAPE/ISLANDS WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST.  BULK OF PRECIP THIS
MORNING...BUT A FEW LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  A FEW SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING BUT BULK OF ACTIVITY SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS THIS
MORNING MAY DROP AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW.  MVFR CONDITIONS DOMINATE
TODAY....BUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING IN SNOW SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY...MVFR CIGS CONTINUE IN RI/EASTERN MASS IN MARINE EAST FLOW.
VFR IN THE WEST.

TUESDAY...VFR WITH SCATTERED MVFR IN ANY RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS LOWERING TO IFR IN RAIN/HEAVY RAIN. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EAST-SOUTHEAST
SURFACE WINDS MAY GUST TO 35-45 KNOTS. WINDS AT 2000 FEET AGL WILL
REACH 50-60 KNOTS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY NIGHT CREATING LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONCERNS.

CHRISTMAS DAY...WEST WIND GUSTING 30-40 KNOTS. CONDITIONS IMPROVING
TO VFR AS THE WIND BRINGS IN COOLER DRIER AIR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS QUEBEC WILL RESULT IN NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS
THE WATERS THAT WILL GUST TO BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS.  THIS WILL
RESULT IN 2 TO 4 FOOT SEAS.  HOWEVER...NO HEADLINES PLANNED AS
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE

MONDAY...EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING AROUND 15 KNOTS OR LESS.
SEAS WILL HOLD AROUND 3-4 FEET...MAY INCREASE TO 5FT IN NORTHEAST
FLOW AS GUIDANCE MAY BE UNDERDONE.

TUESDAY... INCREASING EAST WINDS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5-6 FEET ON THE EXPOSED WATERS.  A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

WEDNESDAY...RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES PRODUCING POOR VISIBILITY.
INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS 20-25 SUSTAINED AND 40 KNOT GUSTS.  WINDS
SHOULD SHIFT TO SOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SOUTHWEST TOWARD THURSDAY
MORNING. RAIN WILL TAPER OFF WITH THE WIND SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST. SEAS
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD WITH 7-11 FEET HEIGHTS ON THE EXPOSED WATERS.
A GALE WARNING WILL BE NEEDED...WITH A LOW PROB OF A FEW STORM FORCE
GUSTS ACROSS THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS.

CHRISTMAS DAY... WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST 35-40
KNOTS...SO A CONTINUED GALE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED. SEAS OF 7-15 FEET
ARE POSSIBLE ON THE EXPOSED WATERS...AND 5 FEET IS POSSIBLE ON SOME
OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL OCCUR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. BREAKING
IT DOWN...ON TUESDAY HIGH TIDE AT BOSTON WILL BE 11.6 FT. THERE WILL
BE ONSHORE FLOW DURING THIS HIGH TIDE ALLOWING FOR MINOR SPLASHOVER.
IF WIND GUSTS INCREASE THEN COULD POSSIBLE SEE MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING.

ON WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL SWITCH TO A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DURING
THE DAY AND INCREASE QUICKLY FROM APPROACHING SYSTEM AND DECENT
PRESSURE FALLS. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE IN BOSTON IS 11.7 FT
AND WITH ANY STRENGTH ON THE EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL PUSH THE TIDE
OVER. RIGHT NOW BELIEVE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE
EAST COASTLINE.

WEDNESDAY EVENING...THE WIND GOES IN A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AND
THE TIDE WILL BE INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST. HIGH TIDE IN
PROVIDENCE WILL BE 5.2 FT. 925 MB LLJ STRENGTHENS TO 50-60 KTS WHICH
COULD PUSH A DECENT SURGE UP ALONG THE SOUTH COAST DURING THE TIME
OF HIGH TIDE. THINKING THAT MINOR COASTAL FLOODING COULD OCCUR BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT MODERATE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...ESP IF LLJ
STRENGTHENS EVEN MORE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...FRANK/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...FRANK/DUNTEN
MARINE...FRANK/DUNTEN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...STAFF



000
FXUS61 KBOX 211154
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
654 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL AFFECT AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE MA
TURNPIKE THIS MORNING...EXCEPT IT WILL BE MILD ENOUGH FOR RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND BRINGING ANOTHER PERIOD OF
PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. A MUCH STRONGER STORM
PASSING WEST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY
WINDS AND COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRY BUT VERY WINDY CONDITIONS FOLLOW FOR
CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

700 PM UPDATE...

VERY LITTLE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AS OVERALL TREND IS ON TRACK
FOR THIS MORNING. RADAR ECHOES LOOK A LITTLE DECEIVING AS SNOW HAS
SPREAD ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND PER OBS.
ANTICIPATE MORE WIDE SPREAD BUT LIGHT SNOW OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO OUTSIDE OF THE COASTAL FRONT...WHICH IS DRAPED OVER GHG-TAN-
UUU.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

APPROACHING SHORTWAVE HAS ALLOWED AN AREA LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO
EXPAND SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE VERY EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS DID EXTEND INTO NORTHERN MA.  RADAR IMAGERY ACTUALLY
OVER SHOOTING SOME OF THE ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHERN CT...BASED ON
OBSERVATIONS.  THE RAIN/SNOW LINE RUNS ROUGHLY FROM NEWPORT...TO
TAUNTON AND JUST NORTH OF MARSHFIELD.  OVERALL...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH
CHANGE IN THE RAIN/SNOW LINE THIS MORNING BASED ON THERMAL PROFILES
AND POSITIONING OF THE COASTAL FRONT.

MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS JUST HOW MUCH SNOW OCCURS THIS MORNING WITH THE
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS CT.  GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE...BEST
FORCING WILL BE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE AND ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHERN CT/RI.  WE WILL FORECAST 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW
ACROSS THIS REGION...BUT A FEW ISOLATED 3 INCH AMOUNTS CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT. MEANWHILE...AREAS NORTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE WILL BE
REMOVED FROM THE BEST FORCING...BUT STILL SEE SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS.  ACCUMS IN THIS AREA LIKELY TO BE A DUSTING TO LESS THAN AN
INCH.

ALSO...SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MA IS
BEING ENHANCED FROM THE COASTAL FRONT.  A LOT OF THIS PRECIP WILL
BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS PLYMOUTH AND EVEN INTO
PORTIONS OF BRISTOL COUNTY...POINTS SOUTH AND EAST.  HOWEVER...AT
LEAST THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHEAST MA SHOULD SEE SNOW
SHOWERS.  WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON IF COASTAL FRONT SHIFTS
SLIGHTLY THIS MORNING.  IT COULD MEAN THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN AN AREA
GETTING MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS OR PERHAPS AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW.
OVERALL...DO NOT EXPECT THE COASTAL FRONT TO MOVE TOO MUCH THIS
MORNING...BUT JUST A FEW MILES CAN MAKE DIFFERENCE FOR A
PARTICULARLY NEIGHBORHOOD.

BULK OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE THIS MORNING WITH THE SHORTWAVE.
HOWEVER...ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/WEAK LIFT WILL REMAIN THIS
AFTERNOON FOR AT LEAST THIS RISK OF SCATTERED PRECIPITATION AND WILL
MAINTAIN SOME POPS.  HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...

A RATHER CLOUDY AND RAW NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  WHILE
THERE IS NOT A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TO TRIGGER A LOT OF
PRECIPITATION...PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/WEAK SHALLOW LIFT
REMAINS.  THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWER
FROM TIME TO TIME.  PTYPE...WOULD BE MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS EXCEPT TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF A NEWPORT...TO TAUNTON...TO JUST NORTH OF
MARSHFIELD LINE.  AGAIN...MUCH OF THE NIGHT WILL PROBABLY END UP
DRY...BUT JUST THE RISK FOR A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* WEAK SHORTWAVE ON MON NIGHT/TUESDAY COULD BRING WINTRY
  MIX/FREEZING RAIN TO THE INTERIOR
* ANOMALOUS SYSTEM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING HEAVY
  RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS AROUND CHRISTMAS
  EVE
* BLUSTERY BUT AIRMASS WILL BE DRYING OUT ON CHRISTMAS DAY

OVERVIEW...

THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES OFFER A REASONABLY SIMILAR AND PREDICTABLE
LARGER SCALE MID TO UPPER LEVEL PATTERN EVOLUTION FOR MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK. THIS ACTIVE FLOW REGIME DEVELOPS SEVERAL MID-UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED/UNSETTLING LEAD SURFACE LOW/FRONTAL
SYSTEMS AND PCPN SWATHS PROGRESS STEADILY ACROSS THE LOWER 48. THE
FIRST AMPLIFIED/DEEP LEAD SYSTEM WORKS ACROSS THE ERN/NERN US INTO
ERN CANADA CHRISTMAS EVE INTO CHRISTMAS ALLOWING FOR A MOIST/WARMED
AIRMASS IN ADVANCE OF FRONTAL APPROACH WITH HEAVIEST LEAD QPF
POTENTIAL OVER NEW ENGLAND. BIGGEST QUESTION IS THE EVOLUTION OF THE
SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. 00Z GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON THE
STRENGTH OF THE LOW AND IS HAVING ISSUES ON HOW TO HANDLE ITS
EVOLUTION. THE EC AND GFS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE SYSTEM SLIGHTLY WITH
THE EC HAVING MORE OF A NEGATIVE TROUGH VS THE GFS. BELIEVE THE
UKMET IS A GOOD COMPROMISE AT IS WAS THE FIRST DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE ON TAMPERING DOWN THE FIRST MAIN LOW...WHILE THE CMC IS OUT
TO LUNCH. REGARDLESS THIS IS A VERY ANOMALOUS SYSTEM THAT IS ABOUT 4
STANDARD DEVIATIONS AWAY.

A SECONDARY SYSTEM DEEPENS ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS ON FRIDAY AND
WITH THE STUBBORN TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S...IT WILL PUSH A
SYSTEM TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM MAY
SUPPORT A MODEST SWATH OF OVERRUNNING SNOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.

DETAILS...

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST
MONDAY...AND WILL BE ON A DEVELOPING WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS LOW
REMAINS WEAK AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES SLOWLY NORTH MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. APPEARS THAT THERE IS DECENT WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS
WAVE. SEVERAL HI-RES GUIDANCE MODELS SHOW THAT THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR COLD AIR DAMMING ACROSS THE INTERIOR INTO TUESDAY.
BIGGEST QUESTION WILL BE IS THERE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR PRECIP DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. DUE TO A STRENGTHENING LLJ PROVIDING A GOOD SOURCE OF
LIFT ANTICIPATE PRECIP TO DEVELOP AND OVERSPREAD ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. IF THIS PLAYS OUT WITH COLD AIR DAMMING AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION...THEN WE COULD SEE FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE ACROSS THE I-91
CORRIDOR LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY...GOOD AMOUNT OF WARM AIR WILL PUSH SURFACE TEMPS ABOVE
FREEZING BY THE LATE MORNING ALLOWING FOR ANY PRECIP TO BE MORE OF
THE LIQUID VARIETY AHEAD OF THE CHRISTMAS EVE STORM. HOWEVER
GUIDANCE IS ALWAYS TOO FAST IN SCOURING TEMPS OUT ESP ACROSS THE CT
VALLEY SO WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS CLOSELY...ESP DUE TO LIGHT
WINDS AND THE HIGH IN EASTERN CANADA. A WINTER WX ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED FOR THE LIGHT ICING POTENTIAL.

WE COULD ALSO SEE SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS ON TUESDAY. SEE
BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SYSTEM LOW CONFIDENCE
ON DETAILS.

ANOMALOUS SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE WILL ROUND THE DEEP TROUGH AND
DEVELOP A SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THIS
SECONDARY LOW WILL STRENGTHEN AND PASS WEST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES TOWARDS EASTERN
CANADA SWINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.

STRONG SOUTHERLY JET OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH A GULF MOISTURE
CONNECTION WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON CHRISTMAS EVE. THIS
STRONG JET WILL YIELD FOR PCPN IN THE LIQUID VARIETY.  PW ANOMALIES
ARE BETWEEN +4 TO +5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL WHICH IS QUITE
ANOMALOUS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. IN FACT CURRENT PWATS ARE PROGGED
ABOVE 1.6 INCHES WITH MODEL QPF OVER 2 INCHES...AT THE VERY LEAST
COULD SEE URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. LATEST EC EVEN SHOWS
OVER 2.5 INCHES OF QPF...AND WITH THE TROPICAL CONNECTION AND STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW COULD SEE HIGHER AMOUNTS DUE TO TOPOGRAPHY
ENHANCEMENTS. RAINFALL RECORDS MAY FALL IF EVERYTHING FALLS INTO
PLACE.

AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL WARM SECTOR WED INTO
THUR MORNING ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. IN
FACT WE MAY BE CLOSE AT BREAKING RECORD HIGH TEMPS IF TEMPS WARM TO
60F OR ABOVE ON CHRISTMAS EVE. SINCE WE WILL BE IN THE WARM
SECTOR...AND SHOWALTERS CLOSE TO ZERO...ISOLATED THUNDER IS STILL
POSSIBLE.

STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE ECMWF SHOWS EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS 30-40 KNOTS ON WEDNESDAY
INCREASING TO 60-75 KNOTS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STRONG DOWNPOURS MAY
OVERCOME THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION AND BRING STRONG GUSTS OF AT LEAST
30-40 KNOTS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED IN SOME AREAS.

CHRISTMAS DAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH EARLY CHRISTMAS DAY...THE WEST
WINDS WILL HELP DRY THE AIRMASS ALLOWING FOR PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.
STRONG CAA ON THURSDAY WILL ALLOW DESCENT MIXING. WINDS IN THE SFC-
850 MB LAYER WILL BE 30-40 KNOTS AND POSSIBLY A LITTLE
HIGHER...WHICH WOULD REQUIRE A WIND ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

FRIDAY-SUNDAY...LOWER CONFIDENCE

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AND SHOULD BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND AT NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS
SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE WITH BORDERLINE VFR TO MARGINAL MVFR CIGS
NORTH OF THE PIKE THROUGH TONIGHT.  AN AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL
EXPAND MAINLY ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF THE PIKE THIS MORNING...BUT A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL STILL AFFECT NORTHERN MA.  VSBYS/CIGS MAY
BRIEFLY DROP TO IFR LEVELS IN NORTHERN CT/RI/SE MA.  PTYPE WILL BE
RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF PLYMOUTH COUNTY AND ONTO THE
CAPE/ISLANDS WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST.  BULK OF PRECIP THIS
MORNING...BUT A FEW LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  A FEW SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING BUT BULK OF ACTIVITY SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS THIS
MORNING MAY DROP AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW.  MVFR CONDITIONS DOMINATE
TODAY....BUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING IN SNOW SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY...MVFR CIGS CONTINUE IN RI/EASTERN MASS IN MARINE EAST FLOW.
VFR IN THE WEST.

TUESDAY...VFR WITH SCATTERED MVFR IN ANY RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS LOWERING TO IFR IN RAIN/HEAVY RAIN. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EAST-SOUTHEAST
SURFACE WINDS MAY GUST TO 35-45 KNOTS. WINDS AT 2000 FEET AGL WILL
REACH 50-60 KNOTS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY NIGHT CREATING LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONCERNS.

CHRISTMAS DAY...WEST WIND GUSTING 30-40 KNOTS. CONDITIONS IMPROVING
TO VFR AS THE WIND BRINGS IN COOLER DRIER AIR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS QUEBEC WILL RESULT IN NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS
THE WATERS THAT WILL GUST TO BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS.  THIS WILL
RESULT IN 2 TO 4 FOOT SEAS.  HOWEVER...NO HEADLINES PLANNED AS
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE

MONDAY...EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING AROUND 15 KNOTS OR LESS.
SEAS WILL HOLD AROUND 3-4 FEET...MAY INCREASE TO 5FT IN NORTHEAST
FLOW AS GUIDANCE MAY BE UNDERDONE.

TUESDAY... INCREASING EAST WINDS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5-6 FEET ON THE EXPOSED WATERS.  A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

WEDNESDAY...RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES PRODUCING POOR VISIBILITY.
INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS 20-25 SUSTAINED AND 40 KNOT GUSTS.  WINDS
SHOULD SHIFT TO SOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SOUTHWEST TOWARD THURSDAY
MORNING. RAIN WILL TAPER OFF WITH THE WIND SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST. SEAS
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD WITH 7-11 FEET HEIGHTS ON THE EXPOSED WATERS.
A GALE WARNING WILL BE NEEDED...WITH A LOW PROB OF A FEW STORM FORCE
GUSTS ACROSS THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS.

CHRISTMAS DAY... WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST 35-40
KNOTS...SO A CONTINUED GALE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED. SEAS OF 7-15 FEET
ARE POSSIBLE ON THE EXPOSED WATERS...AND 5 FEET IS POSSIBLE ON SOME
OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL OCCUR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. BREAKING
IT DOWN...ON TUESDAY HIGH TIDE AT BOSTON WILL BE 11.6 FT. THERE WILL
BE ONSHORE FLOW DURING THIS HIGH TIDE ALLOWING FOR MINOR SPLASHOVER.
IF WIND GUSTS INCREASE THEN COULD POSSIBLE SEE MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING.

ON WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL SWITCH TO A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DURING
THE DAY AND INCREASE QUICKLY FROM APPROACHING SYSTEM AND DECENT
PRESSURE FALLS. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE IN BOSTON IS 11.7 FT
AND WITH ANY STRENGTH ON THE EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL PUSH THE TIDE
OVER. RIGHT NOW BELIEVE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE
EAST COASTLINE.

WEDNESDAY EVENING...THE WIND GOES IN A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AND
THE TIDE WILL BE INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST. HIGH TIDE IN
PROVIDENCE WILL BE 5.2 FT. 925 MB LLJ STRENGTHENS TO 50-60 KTS WHICH
COULD PUSH A DECENT SURGE UP ALONG THE SOUTH COAST DURING THE TIME
OF HIGH TIDE. THINKING THAT MINOR COASTAL FLOODING COULD OCCUR BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT MODERATE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...ESP IF LLJ
STRENGTHENS EVEN MORE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...FRANK/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...FRANK/DUNTEN
MARINE...FRANK/DUNTEN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...STAFF



000
FXUS61 KALY 211138
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
638 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...
BRINGING SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW TO PARTS OF EASTERN NEW YORK
AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. MOSTLY CLOUDY AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH SOME LIGHT
MIXED PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT...AND A PERIOD OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS MORNING BASED
ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

LITTLE LOW LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SEEN ON KOKX RADAR JUST SOUTH OF
EASTERN LONG ISLAND...ASSOCIATED WITH SOME WEAK UPPER ENERGY
TRACKING OFFSHORE. ANOTHER WEAK UPPER IMPULSE IN THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES...WITH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS TRACKING INTO OUR
REGION THROUGH THE DAY. LIGHT SNOW HAS SPREAD INLAND INTO PARTS OF
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN TACONICS...
ALTHOUGH THE MOISTURE IS SO SHALLOW AND AT SUCH LOW LEVELS...AREA
RADARS ARE NOT FULLY PICKING UP ON THE AREAL EXTENT AND INTENSITY
OF THE SNOW.

SOME GUIDANCE IS RESOLVING THESE SMALL SCALE FEATURES AND
SUGGESTING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW IN PARTS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...SOUTHERN TACONICS...NW CT AND THE SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES.
SO...HIGH CHANCES TO LIKELY IN SOME AREAS THROUGH THIS MORNING IN
THOSE AREAS...WITH PERHAPS AROUND AN INCH IN SOME PLACES BEFORE
SNOW DECREASES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

SOME FLURRIES EVEN INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY...CAPITAL DISTRICT AND
EASTERN CATSKILLS...WITH CHANCES FOR BRIEF INTERVALS OF LIGHT SNOW
IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TACONICS AND
NORTHERN BERKSHIRES. WITH ALL THE CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY...
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. HIGHS
AROUND 30 TO THE MID 30S...SOME 20S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SOME
BRIEF BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS...BUT NOT ENOUGH
TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP MUCH. WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT
WINDS...LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S...SOME UPPER TEENS IN THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. WARM ADVECTION SLOWLY STRENGTHENS THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARMING. LIGHT
WIND FLOW THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO
MIX OUT CLOUD COVER...BUT SOUTHERLY WINDS COULD HELP ANY CLEARING
TO THE SOUTH SPREAD SLOWLY NORTH...UNTIL THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING SYSTEM FROM THE WEST SPREAD OVER
THE REGION. STILL...WITH ALL THE CLOUD COVER...HIGHS MONDAY IN THE
30S.

SOUTHERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW SLOWLY INCREASES MONDAY NIGHT AS
DOES WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. LOW LEVEL RIDGING IS
EXPECTED TO BE ANCHORED IN SE CANADA...SO SURFACE FLOW SHOULD BE
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST. AGEOSTROPHIC LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE EAST
AND NORTHEAST SUGGEST THAT ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THAT DEVELOPS
IN THE REGION COULD HELP TEMPERATURES FALL TO WET BULB LEVELS...
WHICH WOULD SUPPORT SNOW AND/OR MIXED PRECIPITATION IN SOME
AREAS...INCLUDING A CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT ION THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S...JUST ABOVE FREEZING
IN MUCH OF THE HUDSON VALLEY...BUT POTENTIALLY CLOSE TO FREEZING
IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. NO WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES YET...WITH
JUST CHANCES FOR FREEZING RAIN BUT WILL INCLUDE IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK BECAUSE HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED IF FREEZING RAIN
BECOMES LIKELY IN SOME AREAS AS THE EVENT NEARS.

ALL PRECIPITATION TRENDS TO ALL RAIN TUESDAY AND SLOWLY INCREASES
IN COVERAGE THROUGH TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS WARM ADVECTION
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT STRENGTHEN. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 40S...BUT
AROUND 40 IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE
MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ACTIVE AND CHANGEABLE WEATHER EXPECTED FROM CHRISTMAS EVE TO
CHRISTMAS DAY...AS A STORM STORM SYSTEM WITH POSSIBLE MULTIPLE
HAZARDS AFFECTS THE REGION. THE MAIN IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS. WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE A MAIN HAZARD WITH THIS SYSTEM.

BY CHRISTMAS EVE DAY OUR REGION SHOULD BE FIRMLY ESTABLISHED IN A
WARM SECTOR ASSOCIATED WITH A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN. A DEEP
TROUGH WILL BE ADVANCING EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...MIDWEST AND TENN VALLEY REGIONS...WITH A RIDGE AXIS
POSITIONED ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AN ANOMALOUSLY WARM AND
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW BOTH IN THE LOW LEVELS AND ALOFT WILL BE IN
PLACE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. DESPITE EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE CLOSE TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH
LOWER TO MID 50S FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY SOUTH AND EAST.

SOUTHERLY WIND FIELD WILL BE INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
STRONG WINDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND AREAS
SUSCEPTIBLE TO SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW. HOW STRONG WIND SPEEDS END UP
IN VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL DEPEND ON DEGREE OF MIXING. SURGES OF
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION WILL LEAD TO OCCASIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL...WITH PWATS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO +4 TO +5 STDEV BY LATE
WEDNESDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG WITH SNOW MELT IN HIGHER TERRAIN
COULD LEAD TO SOME FLOODING. SEE HYDRO SECTION FOR DETAILS.

THERE ARE MODEL DISCREPANCIES WITH REGARDS TO TIMING...TRACK AND
STRENGTH OF THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE AREA...BUT THERE IS AT LEAST
GENERAL CONSENSUS THAT THAT LOW WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST
AND DEEPEN IN THE PROCESS. A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE LOW LOOKS
TO CROSS OUR REGION FROM WEST TO EAST SOMETIME EARLY CHRISTMAS
MORNING. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BURST
OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. STEADY RAINFALL WILL TAPER OFF TO
SCATTERED VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS CHRISTMAS
MORNING. AS THE LOW DEEPENS FURTHER ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON
CHRISTMAS DAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIALLY STRONG WINDS COULD BE
MORE WIDESPREAD IN THE WESTERLY FLOW WITH BETTER MIXING. HIGH TEMPS
WILL LIKELY OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY ON CHRISTMAS...WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE DEVELOPING BRISK WESTERLY WIND.

OTHER THAN A FEW UPSLOPE/LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FOR THE REST OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL TURN MUCH COLDER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS...BUT WILL STILL BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. A WEAKER DISTURBANCE WITH LIMITED MOISTURE
MAY BRING SOME RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WITH LIGHT QPF.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS SOUTHEAST QUEBEC
AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD IN BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TONIGHT.

SOLID BATCH OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...WITH CIGS IN MVFR
RANGE. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO BRUSH THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA...OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 16Z-18Z FOR KALB/KPOU/KPSF
WITH MVFR VSBY/CIGS. LESS MOISTURE ANTICIPATED FARTHER NORTH
AROUND KGFL...SO WILL ONLY MENTION VCSH THERE. CIGS EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE TO VFR RANGE AFTER 18Z...EXCEPT FOR KPSF WHERE MVFR CIGS
SHOULD PREVAIL. CLOUDS MAY TEND TO BREAK UP TOWARDS EVENING...BUT
EXPECTING BKN CIGS TO PREVAIL.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY LESS THAN 5 KTS THROUGH PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. DEFINITE RA.
CHRISTMAS DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 0.75 INCH TO 1.5 INCHES ARE LIKELY ALONG WITH
SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT WHICH RAISES THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING
AND SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES OF LARGER STEM RIVERS. MMEFS
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE BEST CHANCES FOR MINOR FLOODING WOULD BE
FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY THROUGH WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. IT IS TOO
EARLY TO ISSUE ANY FLOOD WATCHES...HOWEVER WILL MENTION IN THE HWO
AT THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...NAS







000
FXUS61 KALY 211138
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
638 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...
BRINGING SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW TO PARTS OF EASTERN NEW YORK
AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. MOSTLY CLOUDY AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH SOME LIGHT
MIXED PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT...AND A PERIOD OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS MORNING BASED
ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

LITTLE LOW LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SEEN ON KOKX RADAR JUST SOUTH OF
EASTERN LONG ISLAND...ASSOCIATED WITH SOME WEAK UPPER ENERGY
TRACKING OFFSHORE. ANOTHER WEAK UPPER IMPULSE IN THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES...WITH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS TRACKING INTO OUR
REGION THROUGH THE DAY. LIGHT SNOW HAS SPREAD INLAND INTO PARTS OF
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN TACONICS...
ALTHOUGH THE MOISTURE IS SO SHALLOW AND AT SUCH LOW LEVELS...AREA
RADARS ARE NOT FULLY PICKING UP ON THE AREAL EXTENT AND INTENSITY
OF THE SNOW.

SOME GUIDANCE IS RESOLVING THESE SMALL SCALE FEATURES AND
SUGGESTING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW IN PARTS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...SOUTHERN TACONICS...NW CT AND THE SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES.
SO...HIGH CHANCES TO LIKELY IN SOME AREAS THROUGH THIS MORNING IN
THOSE AREAS...WITH PERHAPS AROUND AN INCH IN SOME PLACES BEFORE
SNOW DECREASES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

SOME FLURRIES EVEN INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY...CAPITAL DISTRICT AND
EASTERN CATSKILLS...WITH CHANCES FOR BRIEF INTERVALS OF LIGHT SNOW
IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TACONICS AND
NORTHERN BERKSHIRES. WITH ALL THE CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY...
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. HIGHS
AROUND 30 TO THE MID 30S...SOME 20S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SOME
BRIEF BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS...BUT NOT ENOUGH
TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP MUCH. WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT
WINDS...LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S...SOME UPPER TEENS IN THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. WARM ADVECTION SLOWLY STRENGTHENS THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARMING. LIGHT
WIND FLOW THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO
MIX OUT CLOUD COVER...BUT SOUTHERLY WINDS COULD HELP ANY CLEARING
TO THE SOUTH SPREAD SLOWLY NORTH...UNTIL THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING SYSTEM FROM THE WEST SPREAD OVER
THE REGION. STILL...WITH ALL THE CLOUD COVER...HIGHS MONDAY IN THE
30S.

SOUTHERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW SLOWLY INCREASES MONDAY NIGHT AS
DOES WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. LOW LEVEL RIDGING IS
EXPECTED TO BE ANCHORED IN SE CANADA...SO SURFACE FLOW SHOULD BE
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST. AGEOSTROPHIC LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE EAST
AND NORTHEAST SUGGEST THAT ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THAT DEVELOPS
IN THE REGION COULD HELP TEMPERATURES FALL TO WET BULB LEVELS...
WHICH WOULD SUPPORT SNOW AND/OR MIXED PRECIPITATION IN SOME
AREAS...INCLUDING A CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT ION THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S...JUST ABOVE FREEZING
IN MUCH OF THE HUDSON VALLEY...BUT POTENTIALLY CLOSE TO FREEZING
IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. NO WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES YET...WITH
JUST CHANCES FOR FREEZING RAIN BUT WILL INCLUDE IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK BECAUSE HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED IF FREEZING RAIN
BECOMES LIKELY IN SOME AREAS AS THE EVENT NEARS.

ALL PRECIPITATION TRENDS TO ALL RAIN TUESDAY AND SLOWLY INCREASES
IN COVERAGE THROUGH TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS WARM ADVECTION
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT STRENGTHEN. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 40S...BUT
AROUND 40 IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE
MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ACTIVE AND CHANGEABLE WEATHER EXPECTED FROM CHRISTMAS EVE TO
CHRISTMAS DAY...AS A STORM STORM SYSTEM WITH POSSIBLE MULTIPLE
HAZARDS AFFECTS THE REGION. THE MAIN IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS. WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE A MAIN HAZARD WITH THIS SYSTEM.

BY CHRISTMAS EVE DAY OUR REGION SHOULD BE FIRMLY ESTABLISHED IN A
WARM SECTOR ASSOCIATED WITH A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN. A DEEP
TROUGH WILL BE ADVANCING EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...MIDWEST AND TENN VALLEY REGIONS...WITH A RIDGE AXIS
POSITIONED ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AN ANOMALOUSLY WARM AND
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW BOTH IN THE LOW LEVELS AND ALOFT WILL BE IN
PLACE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. DESPITE EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE CLOSE TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH
LOWER TO MID 50S FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY SOUTH AND EAST.

SOUTHERLY WIND FIELD WILL BE INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
STRONG WINDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND AREAS
SUSCEPTIBLE TO SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW. HOW STRONG WIND SPEEDS END UP
IN VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL DEPEND ON DEGREE OF MIXING. SURGES OF
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION WILL LEAD TO OCCASIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL...WITH PWATS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO +4 TO +5 STDEV BY LATE
WEDNESDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG WITH SNOW MELT IN HIGHER TERRAIN
COULD LEAD TO SOME FLOODING. SEE HYDRO SECTION FOR DETAILS.

THERE ARE MODEL DISCREPANCIES WITH REGARDS TO TIMING...TRACK AND
STRENGTH OF THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE AREA...BUT THERE IS AT LEAST
GENERAL CONSENSUS THAT THAT LOW WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST
AND DEEPEN IN THE PROCESS. A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE LOW LOOKS
TO CROSS OUR REGION FROM WEST TO EAST SOMETIME EARLY CHRISTMAS
MORNING. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BURST
OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. STEADY RAINFALL WILL TAPER OFF TO
SCATTERED VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS CHRISTMAS
MORNING. AS THE LOW DEEPENS FURTHER ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON
CHRISTMAS DAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIALLY STRONG WINDS COULD BE
MORE WIDESPREAD IN THE WESTERLY FLOW WITH BETTER MIXING. HIGH TEMPS
WILL LIKELY OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY ON CHRISTMAS...WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE DEVELOPING BRISK WESTERLY WIND.

OTHER THAN A FEW UPSLOPE/LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FOR THE REST OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL TURN MUCH COLDER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS...BUT WILL STILL BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. A WEAKER DISTURBANCE WITH LIMITED MOISTURE
MAY BRING SOME RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WITH LIGHT QPF.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS SOUTHEAST QUEBEC
AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD IN BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TONIGHT.

SOLID BATCH OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...WITH CIGS IN MVFR
RANGE. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO BRUSH THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA...OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 16Z-18Z FOR KALB/KPOU/KPSF
WITH MVFR VSBY/CIGS. LESS MOISTURE ANTICIPATED FARTHER NORTH
AROUND KGFL...SO WILL ONLY MENTION VCSH THERE. CIGS EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE TO VFR RANGE AFTER 18Z...EXCEPT FOR KPSF WHERE MVFR CIGS
SHOULD PREVAIL. CLOUDS MAY TEND TO BREAK UP TOWARDS EVENING...BUT
EXPECTING BKN CIGS TO PREVAIL.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY LESS THAN 5 KTS THROUGH PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. DEFINITE RA.
CHRISTMAS DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 0.75 INCH TO 1.5 INCHES ARE LIKELY ALONG WITH
SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT WHICH RAISES THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING
AND SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES OF LARGER STEM RIVERS. MMEFS
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE BEST CHANCES FOR MINOR FLOODING WOULD BE
FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY THROUGH WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. IT IS TOO
EARLY TO ISSUE ANY FLOOD WATCHES...HOWEVER WILL MENTION IN THE HWO
AT THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...NAS







  [top]

000
FXUS61 KOKX 211121
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
621 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH REMAINING NEARBY. HIGH PRESSURE OTHERWISE REMAINS
OVER THE REGION INTO MONDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WEAKENS AS IT
APPROACHES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM
SYSTEM THEN AFFECTS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS IN ITS WAKE ON CHRISTMAS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL THEN AFFECT THE
REGION NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES FOR DRY WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE CWA.
HOWEVER...A SURFACE TROUGH OVER EASTERN ZONES WILL ACT AS A FOCUS
FOR MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...AND LIFT WILL BE PROVIDED ALOFT AS A
SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH. PCPN TYPE MAINLY SNOW WITH SUFFICIENT
ICE NUCLEI LIKELY PRESENT...BUT BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS ACROSS EASTERN
LONG ISLAND COMPLICATE THE FORECAST. PROBABLY A MIXTURE OF LIGHT
RAIN AND SNOW THERE...PROBABLY EVEN MOSTLY OR ALL RAIN OVER THE
PARTS OF THE FORKS REGION. IN SHORT...TRACE TO HALF INCH OF SNOW
CURRENTLY FORECAST OVER LONG ISLAND...WITH UP TO AROUND AN INCH
ACROSS PARTS OF SE CT. MOST OF THE REST OF THE CWA COULD GET A
FLURRY OR TWO THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
LIFT AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE EXIT EAST BY EARLY THIS EVENING...AND
THE SURFACE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS SLIGHTLY WEST.
WILL GO WITH SCT FLURRIES OVER LI AND CT...AND PCPN TYPE OF
SPRINKLES ALSO PROBABLY PRESENT EARLY IN THE EVENING FOR THE
COASTAL SECTIONS.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST ON MONDAY AND BEGINS TO HEAD NORTH. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST SHIFTS FARTHER EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW LOW
LEVEL WINDS HERE VEER TO THE EAST AND AID LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH FROM THE CENTER OF THE
LOW WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR WEAK LIFT AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.
LOW CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN RESULT...BUT RESERVED FOR THE AFTERNOON.

THE LOW CENTER WEAKENS AS IT HEADS NORTH MONDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE LOW STILL STRENGTHENS...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE STILL INCREASES ON AN ENE FLOW...AND THE SURFACE
TROUGH WILL STILL BE IN THE VICINITY. CHC POPS FOR THIS PERIOD.
THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT RAIN FOR MOST OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...FOR
SOME NW SECTIONS...MODELS SHOWING A WARM NOSE ALOFT...ALLOWING FOR
A CHANCE OF SLEET DURING THE EVENING...THEN POSSIBLY FREEZING RAIN
AS THE WARMEST PART OF THE NOSE EXCEEDS 3C AND SURFACE TEMPS HOVER
AROUND FREEZING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK LOW TO THE SOUTH CONTINUES TO WEAKEN ON TUESDAY...BUT THE
SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS IN THE VICINITY. ECMWF OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS
HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY WETTER FOR TUESDAY...WITH THE GFS CONSISTENTLY
DRIER...AND THE NAM SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN DEPENDING ON LOCATION. WILL
CAP POPS AT 50% AS PER PREVIOUS FORECAST GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY.
FREEZING RAIN STILL POSSIBLE EARLY ON IN THE MORNING FOR THE FAR NW
PORTION OF THE CWA...OTHERWISE...LIGHT RAIN. RAIN THEN BECOMES MORE
LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT.

A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM THEN AFFECTS US CHRISTMAS EVE AND DAY.
MODELS SHOW A STRONG PRIMARY LOW CENTER MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE MOVING INTO ONTARIO ON THURSDAY. A
WEAKER SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE CENTER OR TRIPLE POINT LOW FORMS IN
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BEFORE PASSING NORTH OF US WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT.
CATEGORICAL POPS FOR WEDS/WEDS EVENING BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT...SO BY CHRISTMAS MORNING...SHOWERS STILL LIKELY EARLY ON FOR
THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THE CWA...WITH MAINLY LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS
ELSEWHERE. BY NOON...LIKELY DRY EVERYWHERE.

BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR WEDS THRU THURS. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET PUSHES
THROUGH THE EASTERN ZONES WEDS AFTN/EVE...BUT STRONG GUSTS WILL
PROBABLY HAVE A TOUGH TIME MIXING DOWN THROUGH AN INVERSION.
STRONGER GUSTS MAY BE REALIZED DURING THURSDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
COURTESY OF BETTER MIXING. LOOKS LIKE WE FALL SHORT OF WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA HOWEVER. WILL NEED TO KEEP AND EYE ON THIS TO SEE IF THE
WEAKENING TREND CONTINUES. TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE ABOVE
AVERAGE. HIGHS ON WEDS IN WELL INTO THE 50S...AND WITH A MODERATE
WSW FLOW AND PARTIAL SUNSHINE ON THURSDAY...HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS COOLER
TEMPS...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMALS. THEN FOR NEXT WEEKEND...ANOTHER
INLAND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD IMPACT THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BRIEF IFR VSBYS IN -SN ACROSS EASTERN TERMINALS THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...MVFR CIGS WILL LIFT TO VFR LATE THIS MORNING OR EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. FOR EASTERN TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

MVFR CIGS RETURN TO THE TERMINALS AFTER 00Z MONDAY.

LGT/VRB WINDS WILL BECOME NW AT 5-7 KT BY 14Z. WINDS WILL BECOME
LGT/VRB AGAIN TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN E FLOW. RAIN
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON AND AT NIGHT.
.TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...IFR CIGS/VSBYS LIKELY IN RAIN. E WINDS
10-20 KT...BECOMING SE.
.WEDNESDAY...HIGH IMPACT EVENT BECOMING LIKELY. IFR CONDS WITH
HEAVY RAIN AND SE WINDS 15-20 KT WITH 20-25 KT GUSTS. WINDS SHIFT
TO THE SW LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
.THURSDAY...SUB-VFR CONDS IN THE MORNING IN RAIN SHOWERS. VFR
CONDS BY AFTERNOON. WEST WINDS 15-20 KT WITH 25-35 KT GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRES BUILDS NORTH OF THE WATERS. NORTH WINDS 10 KT OR LESS
ALONG WITH SEAS GENERALLY 1-2 FT ON THE OCEAN OR 1 FT OR LESS ON ALL
OTHER WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS...WITH SEAS ALSO
REMAINING BELOW 5 FT. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA
WATERS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW. SMALL CRAFT WIND
AND SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT...AND ACROSS ALL THE WATERS WEDNESDAY. THEN IN THE COLDER AIR
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY WIND GUSTS WILL BE GALE FORCE ACROSS
ALL THE WATERS AND REMAIN INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTS DIMINISHING
TOWARD FRIDAY MORNING...WITH GUSTS BELOW SMALL CRAFT LATER WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS WILL REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD TOTAL 1
TO 2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. MUCH OF THE RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MINOR URBAN AND
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...MPS
HYDROLOGY...JC










000
FXUS61 KOKX 211121
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
621 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH REMAINING NEARBY. HIGH PRESSURE OTHERWISE REMAINS
OVER THE REGION INTO MONDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WEAKENS AS IT
APPROACHES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM
SYSTEM THEN AFFECTS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS IN ITS WAKE ON CHRISTMAS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL THEN AFFECT THE
REGION NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES FOR DRY WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE CWA.
HOWEVER...A SURFACE TROUGH OVER EASTERN ZONES WILL ACT AS A FOCUS
FOR MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...AND LIFT WILL BE PROVIDED ALOFT AS A
SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH. PCPN TYPE MAINLY SNOW WITH SUFFICIENT
ICE NUCLEI LIKELY PRESENT...BUT BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS ACROSS EASTERN
LONG ISLAND COMPLICATE THE FORECAST. PROBABLY A MIXTURE OF LIGHT
RAIN AND SNOW THERE...PROBABLY EVEN MOSTLY OR ALL RAIN OVER THE
PARTS OF THE FORKS REGION. IN SHORT...TRACE TO HALF INCH OF SNOW
CURRENTLY FORECAST OVER LONG ISLAND...WITH UP TO AROUND AN INCH
ACROSS PARTS OF SE CT. MOST OF THE REST OF THE CWA COULD GET A
FLURRY OR TWO THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
LIFT AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE EXIT EAST BY EARLY THIS EVENING...AND
THE SURFACE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS SLIGHTLY WEST.
WILL GO WITH SCT FLURRIES OVER LI AND CT...AND PCPN TYPE OF
SPRINKLES ALSO PROBABLY PRESENT EARLY IN THE EVENING FOR THE
COASTAL SECTIONS.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST ON MONDAY AND BEGINS TO HEAD NORTH. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST SHIFTS FARTHER EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW LOW
LEVEL WINDS HERE VEER TO THE EAST AND AID LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH FROM THE CENTER OF THE
LOW WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR WEAK LIFT AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.
LOW CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN RESULT...BUT RESERVED FOR THE AFTERNOON.

THE LOW CENTER WEAKENS AS IT HEADS NORTH MONDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE LOW STILL STRENGTHENS...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE STILL INCREASES ON AN ENE FLOW...AND THE SURFACE
TROUGH WILL STILL BE IN THE VICINITY. CHC POPS FOR THIS PERIOD.
THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT RAIN FOR MOST OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...FOR
SOME NW SECTIONS...MODELS SHOWING A WARM NOSE ALOFT...ALLOWING FOR
A CHANCE OF SLEET DURING THE EVENING...THEN POSSIBLY FREEZING RAIN
AS THE WARMEST PART OF THE NOSE EXCEEDS 3C AND SURFACE TEMPS HOVER
AROUND FREEZING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK LOW TO THE SOUTH CONTINUES TO WEAKEN ON TUESDAY...BUT THE
SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS IN THE VICINITY. ECMWF OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS
HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY WETTER FOR TUESDAY...WITH THE GFS CONSISTENTLY
DRIER...AND THE NAM SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN DEPENDING ON LOCATION. WILL
CAP POPS AT 50% AS PER PREVIOUS FORECAST GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY.
FREEZING RAIN STILL POSSIBLE EARLY ON IN THE MORNING FOR THE FAR NW
PORTION OF THE CWA...OTHERWISE...LIGHT RAIN. RAIN THEN BECOMES MORE
LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT.

A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM THEN AFFECTS US CHRISTMAS EVE AND DAY.
MODELS SHOW A STRONG PRIMARY LOW CENTER MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE MOVING INTO ONTARIO ON THURSDAY. A
WEAKER SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE CENTER OR TRIPLE POINT LOW FORMS IN
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BEFORE PASSING NORTH OF US WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT.
CATEGORICAL POPS FOR WEDS/WEDS EVENING BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT...SO BY CHRISTMAS MORNING...SHOWERS STILL LIKELY EARLY ON FOR
THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THE CWA...WITH MAINLY LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS
ELSEWHERE. BY NOON...LIKELY DRY EVERYWHERE.

BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR WEDS THRU THURS. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET PUSHES
THROUGH THE EASTERN ZONES WEDS AFTN/EVE...BUT STRONG GUSTS WILL
PROBABLY HAVE A TOUGH TIME MIXING DOWN THROUGH AN INVERSION.
STRONGER GUSTS MAY BE REALIZED DURING THURSDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
COURTESY OF BETTER MIXING. LOOKS LIKE WE FALL SHORT OF WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA HOWEVER. WILL NEED TO KEEP AND EYE ON THIS TO SEE IF THE
WEAKENING TREND CONTINUES. TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE ABOVE
AVERAGE. HIGHS ON WEDS IN WELL INTO THE 50S...AND WITH A MODERATE
WSW FLOW AND PARTIAL SUNSHINE ON THURSDAY...HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS COOLER
TEMPS...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMALS. THEN FOR NEXT WEEKEND...ANOTHER
INLAND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD IMPACT THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BRIEF IFR VSBYS IN -SN ACROSS EASTERN TERMINALS THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...MVFR CIGS WILL LIFT TO VFR LATE THIS MORNING OR EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. FOR EASTERN TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

MVFR CIGS RETURN TO THE TERMINALS AFTER 00Z MONDAY.

LGT/VRB WINDS WILL BECOME NW AT 5-7 KT BY 14Z. WINDS WILL BECOME
LGT/VRB AGAIN TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN E FLOW. RAIN
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON AND AT NIGHT.
.TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...IFR CIGS/VSBYS LIKELY IN RAIN. E WINDS
10-20 KT...BECOMING SE.
.WEDNESDAY...HIGH IMPACT EVENT BECOMING LIKELY. IFR CONDS WITH
HEAVY RAIN AND SE WINDS 15-20 KT WITH 20-25 KT GUSTS. WINDS SHIFT
TO THE SW LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
.THURSDAY...SUB-VFR CONDS IN THE MORNING IN RAIN SHOWERS. VFR
CONDS BY AFTERNOON. WEST WINDS 15-20 KT WITH 25-35 KT GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRES BUILDS NORTH OF THE WATERS. NORTH WINDS 10 KT OR LESS
ALONG WITH SEAS GENERALLY 1-2 FT ON THE OCEAN OR 1 FT OR LESS ON ALL
OTHER WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS...WITH SEAS ALSO
REMAINING BELOW 5 FT. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA
WATERS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW. SMALL CRAFT WIND
AND SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT...AND ACROSS ALL THE WATERS WEDNESDAY. THEN IN THE COLDER AIR
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY WIND GUSTS WILL BE GALE FORCE ACROSS
ALL THE WATERS AND REMAIN INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTS DIMINISHING
TOWARD FRIDAY MORNING...WITH GUSTS BELOW SMALL CRAFT LATER WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS WILL REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD TOTAL 1
TO 2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. MUCH OF THE RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MINOR URBAN AND
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...MPS
HYDROLOGY...JC










000
FXUS61 KOKX 211121
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
621 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH REMAINING NEARBY. HIGH PRESSURE OTHERWISE REMAINS
OVER THE REGION INTO MONDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WEAKENS AS IT
APPROACHES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM
SYSTEM THEN AFFECTS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS IN ITS WAKE ON CHRISTMAS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL THEN AFFECT THE
REGION NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES FOR DRY WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE CWA.
HOWEVER...A SURFACE TROUGH OVER EASTERN ZONES WILL ACT AS A FOCUS
FOR MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...AND LIFT WILL BE PROVIDED ALOFT AS A
SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH. PCPN TYPE MAINLY SNOW WITH SUFFICIENT
ICE NUCLEI LIKELY PRESENT...BUT BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS ACROSS EASTERN
LONG ISLAND COMPLICATE THE FORECAST. PROBABLY A MIXTURE OF LIGHT
RAIN AND SNOW THERE...PROBABLY EVEN MOSTLY OR ALL RAIN OVER THE
PARTS OF THE FORKS REGION. IN SHORT...TRACE TO HALF INCH OF SNOW
CURRENTLY FORECAST OVER LONG ISLAND...WITH UP TO AROUND AN INCH
ACROSS PARTS OF SE CT. MOST OF THE REST OF THE CWA COULD GET A
FLURRY OR TWO THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
LIFT AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE EXIT EAST BY EARLY THIS EVENING...AND
THE SURFACE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS SLIGHTLY WEST.
WILL GO WITH SCT FLURRIES OVER LI AND CT...AND PCPN TYPE OF
SPRINKLES ALSO PROBABLY PRESENT EARLY IN THE EVENING FOR THE
COASTAL SECTIONS.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST ON MONDAY AND BEGINS TO HEAD NORTH. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST SHIFTS FARTHER EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW LOW
LEVEL WINDS HERE VEER TO THE EAST AND AID LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH FROM THE CENTER OF THE
LOW WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR WEAK LIFT AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.
LOW CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN RESULT...BUT RESERVED FOR THE AFTERNOON.

THE LOW CENTER WEAKENS AS IT HEADS NORTH MONDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE LOW STILL STRENGTHENS...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE STILL INCREASES ON AN ENE FLOW...AND THE SURFACE
TROUGH WILL STILL BE IN THE VICINITY. CHC POPS FOR THIS PERIOD.
THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT RAIN FOR MOST OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...FOR
SOME NW SECTIONS...MODELS SHOWING A WARM NOSE ALOFT...ALLOWING FOR
A CHANCE OF SLEET DURING THE EVENING...THEN POSSIBLY FREEZING RAIN
AS THE WARMEST PART OF THE NOSE EXCEEDS 3C AND SURFACE TEMPS HOVER
AROUND FREEZING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK LOW TO THE SOUTH CONTINUES TO WEAKEN ON TUESDAY...BUT THE
SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS IN THE VICINITY. ECMWF OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS
HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY WETTER FOR TUESDAY...WITH THE GFS CONSISTENTLY
DRIER...AND THE NAM SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN DEPENDING ON LOCATION. WILL
CAP POPS AT 50% AS PER PREVIOUS FORECAST GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY.
FREEZING RAIN STILL POSSIBLE EARLY ON IN THE MORNING FOR THE FAR NW
PORTION OF THE CWA...OTHERWISE...LIGHT RAIN. RAIN THEN BECOMES MORE
LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT.

A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM THEN AFFECTS US CHRISTMAS EVE AND DAY.
MODELS SHOW A STRONG PRIMARY LOW CENTER MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE MOVING INTO ONTARIO ON THURSDAY. A
WEAKER SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE CENTER OR TRIPLE POINT LOW FORMS IN
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BEFORE PASSING NORTH OF US WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT.
CATEGORICAL POPS FOR WEDS/WEDS EVENING BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT...SO BY CHRISTMAS MORNING...SHOWERS STILL LIKELY EARLY ON FOR
THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THE CWA...WITH MAINLY LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS
ELSEWHERE. BY NOON...LIKELY DRY EVERYWHERE.

BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR WEDS THRU THURS. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET PUSHES
THROUGH THE EASTERN ZONES WEDS AFTN/EVE...BUT STRONG GUSTS WILL
PROBABLY HAVE A TOUGH TIME MIXING DOWN THROUGH AN INVERSION.
STRONGER GUSTS MAY BE REALIZED DURING THURSDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
COURTESY OF BETTER MIXING. LOOKS LIKE WE FALL SHORT OF WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA HOWEVER. WILL NEED TO KEEP AND EYE ON THIS TO SEE IF THE
WEAKENING TREND CONTINUES. TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE ABOVE
AVERAGE. HIGHS ON WEDS IN WELL INTO THE 50S...AND WITH A MODERATE
WSW FLOW AND PARTIAL SUNSHINE ON THURSDAY...HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS COOLER
TEMPS...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMALS. THEN FOR NEXT WEEKEND...ANOTHER
INLAND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD IMPACT THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BRIEF IFR VSBYS IN -SN ACROSS EASTERN TERMINALS THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...MVFR CIGS WILL LIFT TO VFR LATE THIS MORNING OR EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. FOR EASTERN TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

MVFR CIGS RETURN TO THE TERMINALS AFTER 00Z MONDAY.

LGT/VRB WINDS WILL BECOME NW AT 5-7 KT BY 14Z. WINDS WILL BECOME
LGT/VRB AGAIN TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN E FLOW. RAIN
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON AND AT NIGHT.
.TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...IFR CIGS/VSBYS LIKELY IN RAIN. E WINDS
10-20 KT...BECOMING SE.
.WEDNESDAY...HIGH IMPACT EVENT BECOMING LIKELY. IFR CONDS WITH
HEAVY RAIN AND SE WINDS 15-20 KT WITH 20-25 KT GUSTS. WINDS SHIFT
TO THE SW LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
.THURSDAY...SUB-VFR CONDS IN THE MORNING IN RAIN SHOWERS. VFR
CONDS BY AFTERNOON. WEST WINDS 15-20 KT WITH 25-35 KT GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRES BUILDS NORTH OF THE WATERS. NORTH WINDS 10 KT OR LESS
ALONG WITH SEAS GENERALLY 1-2 FT ON THE OCEAN OR 1 FT OR LESS ON ALL
OTHER WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS...WITH SEAS ALSO
REMAINING BELOW 5 FT. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA
WATERS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW. SMALL CRAFT WIND
AND SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT...AND ACROSS ALL THE WATERS WEDNESDAY. THEN IN THE COLDER AIR
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY WIND GUSTS WILL BE GALE FORCE ACROSS
ALL THE WATERS AND REMAIN INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTS DIMINISHING
TOWARD FRIDAY MORNING...WITH GUSTS BELOW SMALL CRAFT LATER WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS WILL REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD TOTAL 1
TO 2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. MUCH OF THE RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MINOR URBAN AND
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...MPS
HYDROLOGY...JC










000
FXUS61 KOKX 211121
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
621 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH REMAINING NEARBY. HIGH PRESSURE OTHERWISE REMAINS
OVER THE REGION INTO MONDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WEAKENS AS IT
APPROACHES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM
SYSTEM THEN AFFECTS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS IN ITS WAKE ON CHRISTMAS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL THEN AFFECT THE
REGION NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES FOR DRY WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE CWA.
HOWEVER...A SURFACE TROUGH OVER EASTERN ZONES WILL ACT AS A FOCUS
FOR MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...AND LIFT WILL BE PROVIDED ALOFT AS A
SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH. PCPN TYPE MAINLY SNOW WITH SUFFICIENT
ICE NUCLEI LIKELY PRESENT...BUT BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS ACROSS EASTERN
LONG ISLAND COMPLICATE THE FORECAST. PROBABLY A MIXTURE OF LIGHT
RAIN AND SNOW THERE...PROBABLY EVEN MOSTLY OR ALL RAIN OVER THE
PARTS OF THE FORKS REGION. IN SHORT...TRACE TO HALF INCH OF SNOW
CURRENTLY FORECAST OVER LONG ISLAND...WITH UP TO AROUND AN INCH
ACROSS PARTS OF SE CT. MOST OF THE REST OF THE CWA COULD GET A
FLURRY OR TWO THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
LIFT AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE EXIT EAST BY EARLY THIS EVENING...AND
THE SURFACE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS SLIGHTLY WEST.
WILL GO WITH SCT FLURRIES OVER LI AND CT...AND PCPN TYPE OF
SPRINKLES ALSO PROBABLY PRESENT EARLY IN THE EVENING FOR THE
COASTAL SECTIONS.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST ON MONDAY AND BEGINS TO HEAD NORTH. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST SHIFTS FARTHER EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW LOW
LEVEL WINDS HERE VEER TO THE EAST AND AID LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH FROM THE CENTER OF THE
LOW WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR WEAK LIFT AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.
LOW CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN RESULT...BUT RESERVED FOR THE AFTERNOON.

THE LOW CENTER WEAKENS AS IT HEADS NORTH MONDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE LOW STILL STRENGTHENS...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE STILL INCREASES ON AN ENE FLOW...AND THE SURFACE
TROUGH WILL STILL BE IN THE VICINITY. CHC POPS FOR THIS PERIOD.
THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT RAIN FOR MOST OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...FOR
SOME NW SECTIONS...MODELS SHOWING A WARM NOSE ALOFT...ALLOWING FOR
A CHANCE OF SLEET DURING THE EVENING...THEN POSSIBLY FREEZING RAIN
AS THE WARMEST PART OF THE NOSE EXCEEDS 3C AND SURFACE TEMPS HOVER
AROUND FREEZING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK LOW TO THE SOUTH CONTINUES TO WEAKEN ON TUESDAY...BUT THE
SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS IN THE VICINITY. ECMWF OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS
HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY WETTER FOR TUESDAY...WITH THE GFS CONSISTENTLY
DRIER...AND THE NAM SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN DEPENDING ON LOCATION. WILL
CAP POPS AT 50% AS PER PREVIOUS FORECAST GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY.
FREEZING RAIN STILL POSSIBLE EARLY ON IN THE MORNING FOR THE FAR NW
PORTION OF THE CWA...OTHERWISE...LIGHT RAIN. RAIN THEN BECOMES MORE
LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT.

A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM THEN AFFECTS US CHRISTMAS EVE AND DAY.
MODELS SHOW A STRONG PRIMARY LOW CENTER MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE MOVING INTO ONTARIO ON THURSDAY. A
WEAKER SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE CENTER OR TRIPLE POINT LOW FORMS IN
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BEFORE PASSING NORTH OF US WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT.
CATEGORICAL POPS FOR WEDS/WEDS EVENING BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT...SO BY CHRISTMAS MORNING...SHOWERS STILL LIKELY EARLY ON FOR
THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THE CWA...WITH MAINLY LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS
ELSEWHERE. BY NOON...LIKELY DRY EVERYWHERE.

BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR WEDS THRU THURS. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET PUSHES
THROUGH THE EASTERN ZONES WEDS AFTN/EVE...BUT STRONG GUSTS WILL
PROBABLY HAVE A TOUGH TIME MIXING DOWN THROUGH AN INVERSION.
STRONGER GUSTS MAY BE REALIZED DURING THURSDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
COURTESY OF BETTER MIXING. LOOKS LIKE WE FALL SHORT OF WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA HOWEVER. WILL NEED TO KEEP AND EYE ON THIS TO SEE IF THE
WEAKENING TREND CONTINUES. TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE ABOVE
AVERAGE. HIGHS ON WEDS IN WELL INTO THE 50S...AND WITH A MODERATE
WSW FLOW AND PARTIAL SUNSHINE ON THURSDAY...HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS COOLER
TEMPS...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMALS. THEN FOR NEXT WEEKEND...ANOTHER
INLAND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD IMPACT THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BRIEF IFR VSBYS IN -SN ACROSS EASTERN TERMINALS THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...MVFR CIGS WILL LIFT TO VFR LATE THIS MORNING OR EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. FOR EASTERN TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

MVFR CIGS RETURN TO THE TERMINALS AFTER 00Z MONDAY.

LGT/VRB WINDS WILL BECOME NW AT 5-7 KT BY 14Z. WINDS WILL BECOME
LGT/VRB AGAIN TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN E FLOW. RAIN
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON AND AT NIGHT.
.TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...IFR CIGS/VSBYS LIKELY IN RAIN. E WINDS
10-20 KT...BECOMING SE.
.WEDNESDAY...HIGH IMPACT EVENT BECOMING LIKELY. IFR CONDS WITH
HEAVY RAIN AND SE WINDS 15-20 KT WITH 20-25 KT GUSTS. WINDS SHIFT
TO THE SW LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
.THURSDAY...SUB-VFR CONDS IN THE MORNING IN RAIN SHOWERS. VFR
CONDS BY AFTERNOON. WEST WINDS 15-20 KT WITH 25-35 KT GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRES BUILDS NORTH OF THE WATERS. NORTH WINDS 10 KT OR LESS
ALONG WITH SEAS GENERALLY 1-2 FT ON THE OCEAN OR 1 FT OR LESS ON ALL
OTHER WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS...WITH SEAS ALSO
REMAINING BELOW 5 FT. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA
WATERS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW. SMALL CRAFT WIND
AND SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT...AND ACROSS ALL THE WATERS WEDNESDAY. THEN IN THE COLDER AIR
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY WIND GUSTS WILL BE GALE FORCE ACROSS
ALL THE WATERS AND REMAIN INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTS DIMINISHING
TOWARD FRIDAY MORNING...WITH GUSTS BELOW SMALL CRAFT LATER WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS WILL REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD TOTAL 1
TO 2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. MUCH OF THE RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MINOR URBAN AND
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...MPS
HYDROLOGY...JC










000
FXUS61 KALY 211115
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
615 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...
BRINGING SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW TO PARTS OF EASTERN NEW YORK
AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. MOSTLY CLOUDY AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH SOME LIGHT
MIXED PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT...AND A PERIOD OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS MORNING BASED
ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

LITTLE LOW LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SEEN ON KOKX RADAR JUST SOUTH OF
EASTERN LONG ISLAND...ASSOCIATED WITH SOME WEAK UPPER ENERGY
TRACKING OFFSHORE. ANOTHER WEAK UPPER IMPULSE IN THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES...WITH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS TRACKING INTO OUR
REGION THROUGH THE DAY. LIGHT SNOW HAS SPREAD INLAND INTO PARTS OF
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN TACONICS...
ALTHOUGH THE MOISTURE IS SO SHALLOW AND AT SUCH LOW LEVELS...AREA
RADARS ARE NOT FULLY PICKING UP ON THE AREAL EXTENT AND INTENSITY
OF THE SNOW.

SOME GUIDANCE IS RESOLVING THESE SMALL SCALE FEATURES AND
SUGGESTING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW IN PARTS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...SOUTHERN TACONICS...NW CT AND THE SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES.
SO...HIGH CHANCES TO LIKELY IN SOME AREAS THROUGH THIS MORNING IN
THOSE AREAS...WITH PERHAPS AROUND AN INCH IN SOME PLACES BEFORE
SNOW DECREASES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

SOME FLURRIES EVEN INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY...CAPITAL DISTRICT AND
EASTERN CATSKILLS...WITH CHANCES FOR BRIEF INTERVALS OF LIGHT SNOW
IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TACONICS AND
NORTHERN BERKSHIRES. WITH ALL THE CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY...
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. HIGHS
AROUND 30 TO THE MID 30S...SOME 20S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SOME
BRIEF BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS...BUT NOT ENOUGH
TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP MUCH. WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT
WINDS...LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S...SOME UPPER TEENS IN THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. WARM ADVECTION SLOWLY STRENGTHENS THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARMING. LIGHT
WIND FLOW THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO
MIX OUT CLOUD COVER...BUT SOUTHERLY WINDS COULD HELP ANY CLEARING
TO THE SOUTH SPREAD SLOWLY NORTH...UNTIL THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING SYSTEM FROM THE WEST SPREAD OVER
THE REGION. STILL...WITH ALL THE CLOUD COVER...HIGHS MONDAY IN THE
30S.

SOUTHERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW SLOWLY INCREASES MONDAY NIGHT AS
DOES WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. LOW LEVEL RIDGING IS
EXPECTED TO BE ANCHORED IN SE CANADA...SO SURFACE FLOW SHOULD BE
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST. AGEOSTROPHIC LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE EAST
AND NORTHEAST SUGGEST THAT ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THAT DEVELOPS
IN THE REGION COULD HELP TEMPERATURES FALL TO WET BULB LEVELS...
WHICH WOULD SUPPORT SNOW AND/OR MIXED PRECIPITATION IN SOME
AREAS...INCLUDING A CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT ION THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S...JUST ABOVE FREEZING
IN MUCH OF THE HUDSON VALLEY...BUT POTENTIALLY CLOSE TO FREEZING
IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. NO WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES YET...WITH
JUST CHANCES FOR FREEZING RAIN BUT WILL INCLUDE IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK BECAUSE HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED IF FREEZING RAIN
BECOMES LIKELY IN SOME AREAS AS THE EVENT NEARS.

ALL PRECIPITATION TRENDS TO ALL RAIN TUESDAY AND SLOWLY INCREASES
IN COVERAGE THROUGH TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS WARM ADVECTION
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT STRENGTHEN. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 40S...BUT
AROUND 40 IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE
MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ACTIVE AND CHANGEABLE WEATHER EXPECTED FROM CHRISTMAS EVE TO
CHRISTMAS DAY...AS A STORM STORM SYSTEM WITH POSSIBLE MULTIPLE
HAZARDS AFFECTS THE REGION. THE MAIN IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS. WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE A MAIN HAZARD WITH THIS SYSTEM.

BY CHRISTMAS EVE DAY OUR REGION SHOULD BE FIRMLY ESTABLISHED IN A
WARM SECTOR ASSOCIATED WITH A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN. A DEEP
TROUGH WILL BE ADVANCING EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...MIDWEST AND TENN VALLEY REGIONS...WITH A RIDGE AXIS
POSITIONED ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AN ANOMALOUSLY WARM AND
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW BOTH IN THE LOW LEVELS AND ALOFT WILL BE IN
PLACE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. DESPITE EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE CLOSE TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH
LOWER TO MID 50S FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY SOUTH AND EAST.

SOUTHERLY WIND FIELD WILL BE INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
STRONG WINDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND AREAS
SUSCEPTIBLE TO SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW. HOW STRONG WIND SPEEDS END UP
IN VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL DEPEND ON DEGREE OF MIXING. SURGES OF
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION WILL LEAD TO OCCASIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL...WITH PWATS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO +4 TO +5 STDEV BY LATE
WEDNESDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG WITH SNOW MELT IN HIGHER TERRAIN
COULD LEAD TO SOME FLOODING. SEE HYDRO SECTION FOR DETAILS.

THERE ARE MODEL DISCREPANCIES WITH REGARDS TO TIMING...TRACK AND
STRENGTH OF THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE AREA...BUT THERE IS AT LEAST
GENERAL CONSENSUS THAT THAT LOW WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST
AND DEEPEN IN THE PROCESS. A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE LOW LOOKS
TO CROSS OUR REGION FROM WEST TO EAST SOMETIME EARLY CHRISTMAS
MORNING. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BURST
OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. STEADY RAINFALL WILL TAPER OFF TO
SCATTERED VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS CHRISTMAS
MORNING. AS THE LOW DEEPENS FURTHER ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON
CHRISTMAS DAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIALLY STRONG WINDS COULD BE
MORE WIDESPREAD IN THE WESTERLY FLOW WITH BETTER MIXING. HIGH TEMPS
WILL LIKELY OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY ON CHRISTMAS...WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE DEVELOPING BRISK WESTERLY WIND.

OTHER THAN A FEW UPSLOPE/LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FOR THE REST OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL TURN MUCH COLDER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS...BUT WILL STILL BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. A WEAKER DISTURBANCE WITH LIMITED MOISTURE
MAY BRING SOME RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WITH LIGHT QPF.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS SOUTHEAST QUEBEC
AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

SOLID BATCH OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...WITH CIGS
GENERALLY EITHER MVFR OR VFR. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES BEFORE SUNRISE...CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR
RANGE FOR ALL THE TERMINALS...WITH A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW
DEVELOPING FOR MAINLY KPSF AND POSSIBLY KPOU BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z.
BEST CHANCE FOR OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE AT HIGHER
ELEVATION SITE KPSF...WHERE A TEMPO FOR IFR IN -SN IS MENTIONED
BETWEEN 09Z-12Z. AT THIS TIME ONLY FLURRIES EXPECTED AT KPOU WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING. LESS MOISTURE ANTICIPATED FARTHER
NORTH AROUND KALB/KGFL...SO WILL ONLY MENTION VCSH AT THESE SITES.
ANY -SN WILL END BY AROUND 18Z...AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST. CIGS IN MVFR/VFR RANGE WILL LIKELY REMAIN THROUGH THE
REST OF THE PERIOD ENDING 06Z MONDAY.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY LESS THAN 5 KTS THROUGH PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY DEFINITE RA.
CHRISTMAS DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO
30.0 CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 0.75 INCH TO 1.5 INCHES ARE LIKELY ALONG WITH
SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT WHICH RAISES THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING
AND SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES OF LARGER STEM RIVERS. MMEFS
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE BEST CHANCES FOR MINOR FLOODING WOULD BE
FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY THROUGH WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. IT IS TOO
EARLY TO ISSUE ANY FLOOD WATCHES...HOWEVER WILL MENTION IN THE HWO
AT THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...NAS







000
FXUS61 KALY 211115
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
615 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...
BRINGING SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW TO PARTS OF EASTERN NEW YORK
AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. MOSTLY CLOUDY AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH SOME LIGHT
MIXED PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT...AND A PERIOD OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS MORNING BASED
ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

LITTLE LOW LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SEEN ON KOKX RADAR JUST SOUTH OF
EASTERN LONG ISLAND...ASSOCIATED WITH SOME WEAK UPPER ENERGY
TRACKING OFFSHORE. ANOTHER WEAK UPPER IMPULSE IN THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES...WITH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS TRACKING INTO OUR
REGION THROUGH THE DAY. LIGHT SNOW HAS SPREAD INLAND INTO PARTS OF
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN TACONICS...
ALTHOUGH THE MOISTURE IS SO SHALLOW AND AT SUCH LOW LEVELS...AREA
RADARS ARE NOT FULLY PICKING UP ON THE AREAL EXTENT AND INTENSITY
OF THE SNOW.

SOME GUIDANCE IS RESOLVING THESE SMALL SCALE FEATURES AND
SUGGESTING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW IN PARTS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...SOUTHERN TACONICS...NW CT AND THE SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES.
SO...HIGH CHANCES TO LIKELY IN SOME AREAS THROUGH THIS MORNING IN
THOSE AREAS...WITH PERHAPS AROUND AN INCH IN SOME PLACES BEFORE
SNOW DECREASES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

SOME FLURRIES EVEN INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY...CAPITAL DISTRICT AND
EASTERN CATSKILLS...WITH CHANCES FOR BRIEF INTERVALS OF LIGHT SNOW
IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TACONICS AND
NORTHERN BERKSHIRES. WITH ALL THE CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY...
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. HIGHS
AROUND 30 TO THE MID 30S...SOME 20S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SOME
BRIEF BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS...BUT NOT ENOUGH
TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP MUCH. WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT
WINDS...LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S...SOME UPPER TEENS IN THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. WARM ADVECTION SLOWLY STRENGTHENS THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARMING. LIGHT
WIND FLOW THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO
MIX OUT CLOUD COVER...BUT SOUTHERLY WINDS COULD HELP ANY CLEARING
TO THE SOUTH SPREAD SLOWLY NORTH...UNTIL THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING SYSTEM FROM THE WEST SPREAD OVER
THE REGION. STILL...WITH ALL THE CLOUD COVER...HIGHS MONDAY IN THE
30S.

SOUTHERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW SLOWLY INCREASES MONDAY NIGHT AS
DOES WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. LOW LEVEL RIDGING IS
EXPECTED TO BE ANCHORED IN SE CANADA...SO SURFACE FLOW SHOULD BE
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST. AGEOSTROPHIC LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE EAST
AND NORTHEAST SUGGEST THAT ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THAT DEVELOPS
IN THE REGION COULD HELP TEMPERATURES FALL TO WET BULB LEVELS...
WHICH WOULD SUPPORT SNOW AND/OR MIXED PRECIPITATION IN SOME
AREAS...INCLUDING A CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT ION THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S...JUST ABOVE FREEZING
IN MUCH OF THE HUDSON VALLEY...BUT POTENTIALLY CLOSE TO FREEZING
IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. NO WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES YET...WITH
JUST CHANCES FOR FREEZING RAIN BUT WILL INCLUDE IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK BECAUSE HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED IF FREEZING RAIN
BECOMES LIKELY IN SOME AREAS AS THE EVENT NEARS.

ALL PRECIPITATION TRENDS TO ALL RAIN TUESDAY AND SLOWLY INCREASES
IN COVERAGE THROUGH TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS WARM ADVECTION
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT STRENGTHEN. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 40S...BUT
AROUND 40 IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE
MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ACTIVE AND CHANGEABLE WEATHER EXPECTED FROM CHRISTMAS EVE TO
CHRISTMAS DAY...AS A STORM STORM SYSTEM WITH POSSIBLE MULTIPLE
HAZARDS AFFECTS THE REGION. THE MAIN IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS. WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE A MAIN HAZARD WITH THIS SYSTEM.

BY CHRISTMAS EVE DAY OUR REGION SHOULD BE FIRMLY ESTABLISHED IN A
WARM SECTOR ASSOCIATED WITH A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN. A DEEP
TROUGH WILL BE ADVANCING EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...MIDWEST AND TENN VALLEY REGIONS...WITH A RIDGE AXIS
POSITIONED ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AN ANOMALOUSLY WARM AND
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW BOTH IN THE LOW LEVELS AND ALOFT WILL BE IN
PLACE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. DESPITE EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE CLOSE TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH
LOWER TO MID 50S FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY SOUTH AND EAST.

SOUTHERLY WIND FIELD WILL BE INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
STRONG WINDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND AREAS
SUSCEPTIBLE TO SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW. HOW STRONG WIND SPEEDS END UP
IN VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL DEPEND ON DEGREE OF MIXING. SURGES OF
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION WILL LEAD TO OCCASIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL...WITH PWATS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO +4 TO +5 STDEV BY LATE
WEDNESDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG WITH SNOW MELT IN HIGHER TERRAIN
COULD LEAD TO SOME FLOODING. SEE HYDRO SECTION FOR DETAILS.

THERE ARE MODEL DISCREPANCIES WITH REGARDS TO TIMING...TRACK AND
STRENGTH OF THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE AREA...BUT THERE IS AT LEAST
GENERAL CONSENSUS THAT THAT LOW WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST
AND DEEPEN IN THE PROCESS. A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE LOW LOOKS
TO CROSS OUR REGION FROM WEST TO EAST SOMETIME EARLY CHRISTMAS
MORNING. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BURST
OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. STEADY RAINFALL WILL TAPER OFF TO
SCATTERED VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS CHRISTMAS
MORNING. AS THE LOW DEEPENS FURTHER ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON
CHRISTMAS DAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIALLY STRONG WINDS COULD BE
MORE WIDESPREAD IN THE WESTERLY FLOW WITH BETTER MIXING. HIGH TEMPS
WILL LIKELY OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY ON CHRISTMAS...WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE DEVELOPING BRISK WESTERLY WIND.

OTHER THAN A FEW UPSLOPE/LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FOR THE REST OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL TURN MUCH COLDER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS...BUT WILL STILL BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. A WEAKER DISTURBANCE WITH LIMITED MOISTURE
MAY BRING SOME RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WITH LIGHT QPF.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS SOUTHEAST QUEBEC
AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

SOLID BATCH OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...WITH CIGS
GENERALLY EITHER MVFR OR VFR. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES BEFORE SUNRISE...CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR
RANGE FOR ALL THE TERMINALS...WITH A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW
DEVELOPING FOR MAINLY KPSF AND POSSIBLY KPOU BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z.
BEST CHANCE FOR OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE AT HIGHER
ELEVATION SITE KPSF...WHERE A TEMPO FOR IFR IN -SN IS MENTIONED
BETWEEN 09Z-12Z. AT THIS TIME ONLY FLURRIES EXPECTED AT KPOU WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING. LESS MOISTURE ANTICIPATED FARTHER
NORTH AROUND KALB/KGFL...SO WILL ONLY MENTION VCSH AT THESE SITES.
ANY -SN WILL END BY AROUND 18Z...AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST. CIGS IN MVFR/VFR RANGE WILL LIKELY REMAIN THROUGH THE
REST OF THE PERIOD ENDING 06Z MONDAY.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY LESS THAN 5 KTS THROUGH PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY DEFINITE RA.
CHRISTMAS DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO
30.0 CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 0.75 INCH TO 1.5 INCHES ARE LIKELY ALONG WITH
SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT WHICH RAISES THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING
AND SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES OF LARGER STEM RIVERS. MMEFS
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE BEST CHANCES FOR MINOR FLOODING WOULD BE
FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY THROUGH WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. IT IS TOO
EARLY TO ISSUE ANY FLOOD WATCHES...HOWEVER WILL MENTION IN THE HWO
AT THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...NAS








000
FXUS61 KALY 210924
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
424 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...
BRINGING SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW TO PARTS OF EASTERN NEW YORK
AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. MOSTLY CLOUDY AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH SOME LIGHT
MIXED PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT...AND A PERIOD OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LITTLE LOW LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SEEN ON KOKX RADAR JUST SOUTH OF
EASTERN LONG ISLAND...ASSOCIATED WITH SOME WEAK UPPER ENERGY
TRACKING OFFSHORE. ANOTHER WEAK UPPER IMPULSE IN THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES...WITH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS TRACKING INTO OUR
REGION THROUGH THE DAY. LIGHT SNOW HAS SPREAD INLAND INTO PARTS OF
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
TACONICS...ALTHOUGH THE MOISTURE IS SO SHALLOW AND AT SUCH LOW
LEVELS...AREA RADARS ARE NOT FULLY PICKING UP ON THE AREAL EXTENT
AND INTENSITY OF THE SNOW.

SOME GUIDANCE IS RESOLVING THESE SMALL SCALE FEATURES AND
SUGGESTING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW IN PARTS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...SOUTHERN TACONICS...NW CT AND THE SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES.
SO...HIGH CHANCES TO LIKELY IN SOME AREAS THROUGH THIS MORNING IN
THOSE AREAS...WITH PERHAPS AROUND AN INCH IN SOME PLACES BEFORE
SNOW DECREASES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

SOME FLURRIES EVEN INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY...CAPITAL DISTRICT AND
EASTERN CATSKILLS...WITH CHANCES FOR BRIEF INTERVALS OF LIGHT SNOW
IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TACONICS AND
NORTHERN BERKSHIRES. WITH ALL THE CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY...
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. HIGHS
AROUND 30 TO THE MID 30S...SOME 20S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SOME
BRIEF BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS...BUT NOT ENOUGH
TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP MUCH. WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT
WINDS...LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S...SOME UPPER TEENS IN THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. WARM ADVECTION SLOWLY STRENGTHENS THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARMING. LIGHT
WIND FLOW THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO
MIX OUT CLOUD COVER...BUT SOUTHERLY WINDS COULD HELP ANY CLEARING
TO THE SOUTH SPREAD SLOWLY NORTH...UNTIL THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING SYSTEM FROM THE WEST SPREAD OVER
THE REGION. STILL...WITH ALL THE CLOUD COVER...HIGHS MONDAY IN THE
30S.

SOUTHERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW SLOWLY INCREASES MONDAY NIGHT AS
DOES WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. LOW LEVEL RIDGING IS
EXPECTED TO BE ANCHORED IN SE CANADA...SO SURFACE FLOW SHOULD BE
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST. AGEOSTROPHIC LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE EAST
AND NORTHEAST SUGGEST THAT ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THAT DEVELOPS
IN THE REGION COULD HELP TEMPERATURES FALL TO WET BULB LEVELS...
WHICH WOULD SUPPORT SNOW AND/OR MIXED PRECIPITATION IN SOME
AREAS...INCLUDING A CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT ION THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S...JUST ABOVE FREEZING
IN MUCH OF THE HUDSON VALLEY...BUT POTENTIALLY CLOSE TO FREEZING
IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. NO WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES YET...WITH
JUST CHANCES FOR FREEZING RAIN BUT WILL INCLUDE IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK BECAUSE HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED IF FREEZING RAIN
BECOMES LIKELY IN SOME AREAS AS THE EVENT NEARS.

ALL PRECIPITATION TRENDS TO ALL RAIN TUESDAY AND SLOWLY INCREASES
IN COVERAGE THROUGH TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS WARM ADVECTION
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT STRENGTHEN. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 40S...BUT
AROUND 40 IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE
MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ACTIVE AND CHANGEABLE WEATHER EXPECTED FROM CHRISTMAS EVE TO
CHRISTMAS DAY...AS A STORM STORM SYSTEM WITH POSSIBLE MULTIPLE
HAZARDS AFFECTS THE REGION. THE MAIN IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS. WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE A MAIN HAZARD WITH THIS SYSTEM.

BY CHRISTMAS EVE DAY OUR REGION SHOULD BE FIRMLY ESTABLISHED IN A
WARM SECTOR ASSOCIATED WITH A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN. A DEEP
TROUGH WILL BE ADVANCING EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...MIDWEST AND TENN VALLEY REGIONS...WITH A RIDGE AXIS
POSITIONED ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AN ANOMALOUSLY WARM AND
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW BOTH IN THE LOW LEVELS AND ALOFT WILL BE IN
PLACE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. DESPITE EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE CLOSE TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH
LOWER TO MID 50S FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY SOUTH AND EAST.

SOUTHERLY WIND FIELD WILL BE INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
STRONG WINDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND AREAS
SUSCEPTIBLE TO SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW. HOW STRONG WIND SPEEDS END UP
IN VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL DEPEND ON DEGREE OF MIXING. SURGES OF
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION WILL LEAD TO OCCASIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL...WITH PWATS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO +4 TO +5 STDEV BY LATE
WEDNESDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG WITH SNOW MELT IN HIGHER TERRAIN
COULD LEAD TO SOME FLOODING. SEE HYDRO SECTION FOR DETAILS.

THERE ARE MODEL DISCREPANCIES WITH REGARDS TO TIMING...TRACK AND
STRENGTH OF THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE AREA...BUT THERE IS AT LEAST
GENERAL CONSENSUS THAT THAT LOW WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST
AND DEEPEN IN THE PROCESS. A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE LOW LOOKS
TO CROSS OUR REGION FROM WEST TO EAST SOMETIME EARLY CHRISTMAS
MORNING. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BURST
OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. STEADY RAINFALL WILL TAPER OFF TO
SCATTERED VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS CHRISTMAS
MORNING. AS THE LOW DEEPENS FURTHER ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON
CHRISTMAS DAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIALLY STRONG WINDS COULD BE
MORE WIDESPREAD IN THE WESTERLY FLOW WITH BETTER MIXING. HIGH TEMPS
WILL LIKELY OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY ON CHRISTMAS...WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE DEVELOPING BRISK WESTERLY WIND.

OTHER THAN A FEW UPSLOPE/LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FOR THE REST OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL TURN MUCH COLDER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS...BUT WILL STILL BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. A WEAKER DISTURBANCE WITH LIMITED MOISTURE
MAY BRING SOME RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WITH LIGHT QPF.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS SOUTHEAST QUEBEC
AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

SOLID BATCH OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...WITH CIGS
GENERALLY EITHER MVFR OR VFR. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES BEFORE SUNRISE...CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR
RANGE FOR ALL THE TERMINALS...WITH A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW
DEVELOPING FOR MAINLY KPSF AND POSSIBLY KPOU BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z.
BEST CHANCE FOR OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE AT HIGHER
ELEVATION SITE KPSF...WHERE A TEMPO FOR IFR IN -SN IS MENTIONED
BETWEEN 09Z-12Z. AT THIS TIME ONLY FLURRIES EXPECTED AT KPOU WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING. LESS MOISTURE ANTICIPATED FARTHER
NORTH AROUND KALB/KGFL...SO WILL ONLY MENTION VCSH AT THESE SITES.
ANY -SN WILL END BY AROUND 18Z...AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST. CIGS IN MVFR/VFR RANGE WILL LIKELY REMAIN THROUGH THE
REST OF THE PERIOD ENDING 06Z MONDAY.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY LESS THAN 5 KTS THROUGH PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY DEFINITE RA.
CHRISTMAS DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO
30.0 CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 0.75 INCH TO 1.5 INCHES ARE LIKELY ALONG WITH
SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT WHICH RAISES THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING
AND SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES OF LARGER STEM RIVERS. MMEFS
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE BEST CHANCES FOR MINOR FLOODING WOULD BE
FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY THROUGH WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. IT IS TOO
EARLY TO ISSUE ANY FLOOD WATCHES...HOWEVER WILL MENTION IN THE HWO
AT THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...NAS







000
FXUS61 KALY 210924
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
424 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...
BRINGING SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW TO PARTS OF EASTERN NEW YORK
AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. MOSTLY CLOUDY AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH SOME LIGHT
MIXED PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT...AND A PERIOD OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LITTLE LOW LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SEEN ON KOKX RADAR JUST SOUTH OF
EASTERN LONG ISLAND...ASSOCIATED WITH SOME WEAK UPPER ENERGY
TRACKING OFFSHORE. ANOTHER WEAK UPPER IMPULSE IN THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES...WITH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS TRACKING INTO OUR
REGION THROUGH THE DAY. LIGHT SNOW HAS SPREAD INLAND INTO PARTS OF
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
TACONICS...ALTHOUGH THE MOISTURE IS SO SHALLOW AND AT SUCH LOW
LEVELS...AREA RADARS ARE NOT FULLY PICKING UP ON THE AREAL EXTENT
AND INTENSITY OF THE SNOW.

SOME GUIDANCE IS RESOLVING THESE SMALL SCALE FEATURES AND
SUGGESTING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW IN PARTS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...SOUTHERN TACONICS...NW CT AND THE SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES.
SO...HIGH CHANCES TO LIKELY IN SOME AREAS THROUGH THIS MORNING IN
THOSE AREAS...WITH PERHAPS AROUND AN INCH IN SOME PLACES BEFORE
SNOW DECREASES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

SOME FLURRIES EVEN INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY...CAPITAL DISTRICT AND
EASTERN CATSKILLS...WITH CHANCES FOR BRIEF INTERVALS OF LIGHT SNOW
IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TACONICS AND
NORTHERN BERKSHIRES. WITH ALL THE CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY...
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. HIGHS
AROUND 30 TO THE MID 30S...SOME 20S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SOME
BRIEF BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS...BUT NOT ENOUGH
TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP MUCH. WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT
WINDS...LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S...SOME UPPER TEENS IN THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. WARM ADVECTION SLOWLY STRENGTHENS THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARMING. LIGHT
WIND FLOW THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO
MIX OUT CLOUD COVER...BUT SOUTHERLY WINDS COULD HELP ANY CLEARING
TO THE SOUTH SPREAD SLOWLY NORTH...UNTIL THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING SYSTEM FROM THE WEST SPREAD OVER
THE REGION. STILL...WITH ALL THE CLOUD COVER...HIGHS MONDAY IN THE
30S.

SOUTHERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW SLOWLY INCREASES MONDAY NIGHT AS
DOES WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. LOW LEVEL RIDGING IS
EXPECTED TO BE ANCHORED IN SE CANADA...SO SURFACE FLOW SHOULD BE
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST. AGEOSTROPHIC LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE EAST
AND NORTHEAST SUGGEST THAT ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THAT DEVELOPS
IN THE REGION COULD HELP TEMPERATURES FALL TO WET BULB LEVELS...
WHICH WOULD SUPPORT SNOW AND/OR MIXED PRECIPITATION IN SOME
AREAS...INCLUDING A CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT ION THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S...JUST ABOVE FREEZING
IN MUCH OF THE HUDSON VALLEY...BUT POTENTIALLY CLOSE TO FREEZING
IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. NO WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES YET...WITH
JUST CHANCES FOR FREEZING RAIN BUT WILL INCLUDE IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK BECAUSE HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED IF FREEZING RAIN
BECOMES LIKELY IN SOME AREAS AS THE EVENT NEARS.

ALL PRECIPITATION TRENDS TO ALL RAIN TUESDAY AND SLOWLY INCREASES
IN COVERAGE THROUGH TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS WARM ADVECTION
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT STRENGTHEN. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 40S...BUT
AROUND 40 IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE
MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ACTIVE AND CHANGEABLE WEATHER EXPECTED FROM CHRISTMAS EVE TO
CHRISTMAS DAY...AS A STORM STORM SYSTEM WITH POSSIBLE MULTIPLE
HAZARDS AFFECTS THE REGION. THE MAIN IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS. WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE A MAIN HAZARD WITH THIS SYSTEM.

BY CHRISTMAS EVE DAY OUR REGION SHOULD BE FIRMLY ESTABLISHED IN A
WARM SECTOR ASSOCIATED WITH A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN. A DEEP
TROUGH WILL BE ADVANCING EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...MIDWEST AND TENN VALLEY REGIONS...WITH A RIDGE AXIS
POSITIONED ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AN ANOMALOUSLY WARM AND
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW BOTH IN THE LOW LEVELS AND ALOFT WILL BE IN
PLACE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. DESPITE EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE CLOSE TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH
LOWER TO MID 50S FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY SOUTH AND EAST.

SOUTHERLY WIND FIELD WILL BE INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
STRONG WINDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND AREAS
SUSCEPTIBLE TO SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW. HOW STRONG WIND SPEEDS END UP
IN VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL DEPEND ON DEGREE OF MIXING. SURGES OF
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION WILL LEAD TO OCCASIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL...WITH PWATS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO +4 TO +5 STDEV BY LATE
WEDNESDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG WITH SNOW MELT IN HIGHER TERRAIN
COULD LEAD TO SOME FLOODING. SEE HYDRO SECTION FOR DETAILS.

THERE ARE MODEL DISCREPANCIES WITH REGARDS TO TIMING...TRACK AND
STRENGTH OF THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE AREA...BUT THERE IS AT LEAST
GENERAL CONSENSUS THAT THAT LOW WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST
AND DEEPEN IN THE PROCESS. A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE LOW LOOKS
TO CROSS OUR REGION FROM WEST TO EAST SOMETIME EARLY CHRISTMAS
MORNING. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BURST
OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. STEADY RAINFALL WILL TAPER OFF TO
SCATTERED VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS CHRISTMAS
MORNING. AS THE LOW DEEPENS FURTHER ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON
CHRISTMAS DAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIALLY STRONG WINDS COULD BE
MORE WIDESPREAD IN THE WESTERLY FLOW WITH BETTER MIXING. HIGH TEMPS
WILL LIKELY OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY ON CHRISTMAS...WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE DEVELOPING BRISK WESTERLY WIND.

OTHER THAN A FEW UPSLOPE/LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FOR THE REST OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL TURN MUCH COLDER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS...BUT WILL STILL BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. A WEAKER DISTURBANCE WITH LIMITED MOISTURE
MAY BRING SOME RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WITH LIGHT QPF.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS SOUTHEAST QUEBEC
AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

SOLID BATCH OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...WITH CIGS
GENERALLY EITHER MVFR OR VFR. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES BEFORE SUNRISE...CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR
RANGE FOR ALL THE TERMINALS...WITH A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW
DEVELOPING FOR MAINLY KPSF AND POSSIBLY KPOU BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z.
BEST CHANCE FOR OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE AT HIGHER
ELEVATION SITE KPSF...WHERE A TEMPO FOR IFR IN -SN IS MENTIONED
BETWEEN 09Z-12Z. AT THIS TIME ONLY FLURRIES EXPECTED AT KPOU WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING. LESS MOISTURE ANTICIPATED FARTHER
NORTH AROUND KALB/KGFL...SO WILL ONLY MENTION VCSH AT THESE SITES.
ANY -SN WILL END BY AROUND 18Z...AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST. CIGS IN MVFR/VFR RANGE WILL LIKELY REMAIN THROUGH THE
REST OF THE PERIOD ENDING 06Z MONDAY.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY LESS THAN 5 KTS THROUGH PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY DEFINITE RA.
CHRISTMAS DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO
30.0 CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 0.75 INCH TO 1.5 INCHES ARE LIKELY ALONG WITH
SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT WHICH RAISES THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING
AND SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES OF LARGER STEM RIVERS. MMEFS
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE BEST CHANCES FOR MINOR FLOODING WOULD BE
FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY THROUGH WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. IT IS TOO
EARLY TO ISSUE ANY FLOOD WATCHES...HOWEVER WILL MENTION IN THE HWO
AT THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...NAS








000
FXUS61 KBOX 210916
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
416 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL AFFECT AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE MA
TURNPIKE THIS MORNING...EXCEPT IT WILL BE MILD ENOUGH FOR RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND BRINGING ANOTHER PERIOD OF
PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. A MUCH STRONGER STORM
PASSING WEST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY
WINDS AND COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRY BUT VERY WINDY CONDITIONS FOLLOW FOR
CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

4 AM UPDATE...

APPROACHING SHORTWAVE HAS ALLOWED AN AREA LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO
EXPAND SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE VERY EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS DID EXTEND INTO NORTHERN MA.  RADAR IMAGERY ACTUALLY
OVER SHOOTING SOME OF THE ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHERN CT...BASED ON
OBSERVATIONS.  THE RAIN/SNOW LINE RUNS ROUGHLY FROM NEWPORT...TO
TAUNTON AND JUST NORTH OF MARSHFIELD.  OVERALL...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH
CHANGE IN THE RAIN/SNOW LINE THIS MORNING BASED ON THERMAL PROFILES
AND POSITIONING OF THE COASTAL FRONT.

MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS JUST HOW MUCH SNOW OCCURS THIS MORNING WITH THE
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS CT.  GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE...BEST
FORCING WILL BE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE AND ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHERN CT/RI.  WE WILL FORECAST 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW
ACROSS THIS REGION...BUT A FEW ISOLATED 3 INCH AMOUNTS CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT. MEANWHILE...AREAS NORTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE WILL BE
REMOVED FROM THE BEST FORCING...BUT STILL SEE SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS.  ACCUMS IN THIS AREA LIKELY TO BE A DUSTING TO LESS THAN AN
INCH.

ALSO...SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MA IS
BEING ENHANCED FROM THE COASTAL FRONT.  A LOT OF THIS PRECIP WILL
BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS PLYMOUTH AND EVEN INTO
PORTIONS OF BRISTOL COUNTY...POINTS SOUTH AND EAST.  HOWEVER...AT
LEAST THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHEAST MA SHOULD SEE SNOW
SHOWERS.  WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON IF COASTAL FRONT SHIFTS
SLIGHTLY THIS MORNING.  IT COULD MEAN THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN AN AREA
GETTING MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS OR PERHAPS AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW.
OVERALL...DO NOT EXPECT THE COASTAL FRONT TO MOVE TOO MUCH THIS
MORNING...BUT JUST A FEW MILES CAN MAKE DIFFERENCE FOR A
PARTICULARLY NEIGHBORHOOD.

BULK OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE THIS MORNING WITH THE SHORTWAVE.
HOWEVER...ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/WEAK LIFT WILL REMAIN THIS
AFTERNOON FOR AT LEAST THIS RISK OF SCATTERED PRECIPITATION AND WILL
MAINTAIN SOME POPS.  HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...

TONIGHT...

A RATHER CLOUDY AND RAW NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  WHILE
THERE IS NOT A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TO TRIGGER A LOT OF
PRECIPITATION...PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/WEAK SHALLOW LIFT
REMAINS.  THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWER
FROM TIME TO TIME.  PTYPE...WOULD BE MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS EXCEPT TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF A NEWPORT...TO TAUNTON...TO JUST NORTH OF
MARSHFIELD LINE.  AGAIN...MUCH OF THE NIGHT WILL PROBABLY END UP
DRY...BUT JUST THE RISK FOR A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* WEAK SHORTWAVE ON MON NIGHT/TUESDAY COULD BRING WINTRY
  MIX/FREEZING RAIN TO THE INTERIOR
* ANOMALOUS SYSTEM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING HEAVY
  RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS AROUND CHRISTMAS
  EVE
* BLUSTERY BUT AIRMASS WILL BE DRYING OUT ON CHRISTMAS DAY

OVERVIEW...

THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES OFFER A REASONABLY SIMILAR AND PREDICTABLE
LARGER SCALE MID TO UPPER LEVEL PATTERN EVOLUTION FOR MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK. THIS ACTIVE FLOW REGIME DEVELOPS SEVERAL MID-UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED/UNSETTLING LEAD SURFACE LOW/FRONTAL
SYSTEMS AND PCPN SWATHS PROGRESS STEADILY ACROSS THE LOWER 48. THE
FIRST AMPLIFIED/DEEP LEAD SYSTEM WORKS ACROSS THE ERN/NERN US INTO
ERN CANADA CHRISTMAS EVE INTO CHRISTMAS ALLOWING FOR A MOIST/WARMED
AIRMASS IN ADVANCE OF FRONTAL APPROACH WITH HEAVIEST LEAD QPF
POTENTIAL OVER NEW ENGLAND. BIGGEST QUESTION IS THE EVOLUTION OF THE
SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. 00Z GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON THE
STRENGTH OF THE LOW AND IS HAVING ISSUES ON HOW TO HANDLE ITS
EVOLUTION. THE EC AND GFS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE SYSTEM SLIGHTLY WITH
THE EC HAVING MORE OF A NEGATIVE TROUGH VS THE GFS. BELIEVE THE
UKMET IS A GOOD COMPROMISE AT IS WAS THE FIRST DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE ON TAMPERING DOWN THE FIRST MAIN LOW...WHILE THE CMC IS OUT
TO LUNCH. REGARDLESS THIS IS A VERY ANOMALOUS SYSTEM THAT IS ABOUT 4
STANDARD DEVIATIONS AWAY.

A SECONDARY SYSTEM DEEPENS ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS ON FRIDAY AND
WITH THE STUBBORN TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S...IT WILL PUSH A
SYSTEM TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM MAY
SUPPORT A MODEST SWATH OF OVERRUNNING SNOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.

DETAILS...

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST
MONDAY...AND WILL BE ON A DEVELOPING WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS LOW
REMAINS WEAK AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES SLOWLY NORTH MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. APPEARS THAT THERE IS DECENT WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS
WAVE. SEVERAL HI-RES GUIDANCE MODELS SHOW THAT THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR COLD AIR DAMMING ACROSS THE INTERIOR INTO TUESDAY.
BIGGEST QUESTION WILL BE IS THERE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR PRECIP DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. DUE TO A STRENGTHENING LLJ PROVIDING A GOOD SOURCE OF
LIFT ANTICIPATE PRECIP TO DEVELOP AND OVERSPREAD ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. IF THIS PLAYS OUT WITH COLD AIR DAMMING AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION...THEN WE COULD SEE FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE ACROSS THE I-91
CORRIDOR LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY...GOOD AMOUNT OF WARM AIR WILL PUSH SURFACE TEMPS ABOVE
FREEZING BY THE LATE MORNING ALLOWING FOR ANY PRECIP TO BE MORE OF
THE LIQUID VARIETY AHEAD OF THE CHRISTMAS EVE STORM. HOWEVER
GUIDANCE IS ALWAYS TOO FAST IN SCOURING TEMPS OUT ESP ACROSS THE CT
VALLEY SO WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS CLOSELY...ESP DUE TO LIGHT
WINDS AND THE HIGH IN EASTERN CANADA. A WINTER WX ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED FOR THE LIGHT ICING POTENTIAL.

WE COULD ALSO SEE SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS ON TUESDAY. SEE
BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SYSTEM LOW CONFIDENCE
ON DETAILS.

ANOMALOUS SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE WILL ROUND THE DEEP TROUGH AND
DEVELOP A SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THIS
SECONDARY LOW WILL STRENGTHEN AND PASS WEST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES TOWARDS EASTERN
CANADA SWINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.

STRONG SOUTHERLY JET OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH A GULF MOISTURE
CONNECTION WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON CHRISTMAS EVE. THIS
STRONG JET WILL YIELD FOR PCPN IN THE LIQUID VARIETY.  PW ANOMALIES
ARE BETWEEN +4 TO +5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL WHICH IS QUITE
ANOMALOUS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. IN FACT CURRENT PWATS ARE PROGGED
ABOVE 1.6 INCHES WITH MODEL QPF OVER 2 INCHES...AT THE VERY LEAST
COULD SEE URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. LATEST EC EVEN SHOWS
OVER 2.5 INCHES OF QPF...AND WITH THE TROPICAL CONNECTION AND STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW COULD SEE HIGHER AMOUNTS DUE TO TOPOGRAPHY
ENHANCEMENTS. RAINFALL RECORDS MAY FALL IF EVERYTHING FALLS INTO
PLACE.

AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL WARM SECTOR WED INTO
THUR MORNING ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. IN
FACT WE MAY BE CLOSE AT BREAKING RECORD HIGH TEMPS IF TEMPS WARM TO
60F OR ABOVE ON CHRISTMAS EVE. SINCE WE WILL BE IN THE WARM
SECTOR...AND SHOWALTERS CLOSE TO ZERO...ISOLATED THUNDER IS STILL
POSSIBLE.

STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE ECMWF SHOWS EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS 30-40 KNOTS ON WEDNESDAY
INCREASING TO 60-75 KNOTS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STRONG DOWNPOURS MAY
OVERCOME THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION AND BRING STRONG GUSTS OF AT LEAST
30-40 KNOTS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED IN SOME AREAS.

CHRISTMAS DAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH EARLY CHRISTMAS DAY...THE WEST
WINDS WILL HELP DRY THE AIRMASS ALLOWING FOR PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.
STRONG CAA ON THURSDAY WILL ALLOW DESCENT MIXING. WINDS IN THE SFC-
850 MB LAYER WILL BE 30-40 KNOTS AND POSSIBLY A LITTLE
HIGHER...WHICH WOULD REQUIRE A WIND ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

FRIDAY-SUNDAY...LOWER CONFIDENCE

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AND SHOULD BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND AT NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS
SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE WITH BORDERLINE VFR TO MARGINAL MVFR CIGS
NORTH OF THE PIKE THROUGH TONIGHT.  AN AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL
EXPAND MAINLY ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF THE PIKE THIS MORNING...BUT A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL STILL AFFECT NORTHERN MA.  VSBYS/CIGS MAY
BRIEFLY DROP TO IFR LEVELS IN NORTHERN CT/RI/SE MA.  PTYPE WILL BE
RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF PLYMOUTH COUNTY AND ONTO THE
CAPE/ISLANDS WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST.  BULK OF PRECIP THIS
MORNING...BUT A FEW LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  A FEW SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING BUT BULK OF ACTIVITY SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS THIS
MORNING MAY DROP AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW.  MVFR CONDITIONS DOMINATE
TODAY....BUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING IN SNOW SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY...MVFR CIGS CONTINUE IN RI/EASTERN MASS IN MARINE EAST FLOW.
VFR IN THE WEST.

TUESDAY...VFR WITH SCATTERED MVFR IN ANY RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS LOWERING TO IFR IN RAIN/HEAVY RAIN. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EAST-SOUTHEAST
SURFACE WINDS MAY GUST TO 35-45 KNOTS. WINDS AT 2000 FEET AGL WILL
REACH 50-60 KNOTS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY NIGHT CREATING LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONCERNS.

CHRISTMAS DAY...WEST WIND GUSTING 30-40 KNOTS. CONDITIONS IMPROVING
TO VFR AS THE WIND BRINGS IN COOLER DRIER AIR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS QUEBEC WILL RESULT IN NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS
THE WATERS THAT WILL GUST TO BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS.  THIS WILL
RESULT IN 2 TO 4 FOOT SEAS.  HOWEVER...NO HEADLINES PLANNED AS
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE

MONDAY...EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING AROUND 15 KNOTS OR LESS.
SEAS WILL HOLD AROUND 3-4 FEET...MAY INCREASE TO 5FT IN NORTHEAST
FLOW AS GUIDANCE MAY BE UNDERDONE.

TUESDAY... INCREASING EAST WINDS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5-6 FEET ON THE EXPOSED WATERS.  A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

WEDNESDAY...RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES PRODUCING POOR VISIBILITY.
INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS 20-25 SUSTAINED AND 40 KNOT GUSTS.  WINDS
SHOULD SHIFT TO SOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SOUTHWEST TOWARD THURSDAY
MORNING. RAIN WILL TAPER OFF WITH THE WIND SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST. SEAS
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD WITH 7-11 FEET HEIGHTS ON THE EXPOSED WATERS.
A GALE WARNING WILL BE NEEDED...WITH A LOW PROB OF A FEW STORM FORCE
GUSTS ACROSS THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS.

CHRISTMAS DAY... WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST 35-40
KNOTS...SO A CONTINUED GALE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED. SEAS OF 7-15 FEET
ARE POSSIBLE ON THE EXPOSED WATERS...AND 5 FEET IS POSSIBLE ON SOME
OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL OCCUR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. BREAKING
IT DOWN...ON TUESDAY HIGH TIDE AT BOSTON WILL BE 11.6 FT. THERE WILL
BE ONSHORE FLOW DURING THIS HIGH TIDE ALLOWING FOR MINOR SPLASHOVER.
IF WIND GUSTS INCREASE THEN COULD POSSIBLE SEE MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING.

ON WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL SWITCH TO A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DURING
THE DAY AND INCREASE QUICKLY FROM APPROACHING SYSTEM AND DECENT
PRESSURE FALLS. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE IN BOSTON IS 11.7 FT
AND WITH ANY STRENGTH ON THE EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL PUSH THE TIDE
OVER. RIGHT NOW BELIEVE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE
EAST COASTLINE.

WEDNESDAY EVENING...THE WIND GOES IN A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AND
THE TIDE WILL BE INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST. HIGH TIDE IN
PROVIDENCE WILL BE 5.2 FT. 925 MB LLJ STRENGTHENS TO 50-60 KTS WHICH
COULD PUSH A DECENT SURGE UP ALONG THE SOUTH COAST DURING THE TIME
OF HIGH TIDE. THINKING THAT MINOR COASTAL FLOODING COULD OCCUR BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT MODERATE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...ESP IF LLJ
STRENGTHENS EVEN MORE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...FRANK/DUNTEN
MARINE...FRANK/DUNTEN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 210916
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
416 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL AFFECT AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE MA
TURNPIKE THIS MORNING...EXCEPT IT WILL BE MILD ENOUGH FOR RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND BRINGING ANOTHER PERIOD OF
PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. A MUCH STRONGER STORM
PASSING WEST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY
WINDS AND COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRY BUT VERY WINDY CONDITIONS FOLLOW FOR
CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

4 AM UPDATE...

APPROACHING SHORTWAVE HAS ALLOWED AN AREA LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO
EXPAND SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE VERY EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS DID EXTEND INTO NORTHERN MA.  RADAR IMAGERY ACTUALLY
OVER SHOOTING SOME OF THE ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHERN CT...BASED ON
OBSERVATIONS.  THE RAIN/SNOW LINE RUNS ROUGHLY FROM NEWPORT...TO
TAUNTON AND JUST NORTH OF MARSHFIELD.  OVERALL...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH
CHANGE IN THE RAIN/SNOW LINE THIS MORNING BASED ON THERMAL PROFILES
AND POSITIONING OF THE COASTAL FRONT.

MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS JUST HOW MUCH SNOW OCCURS THIS MORNING WITH THE
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS CT.  GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE...BEST
FORCING WILL BE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE AND ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHERN CT/RI.  WE WILL FORECAST 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW
ACROSS THIS REGION...BUT A FEW ISOLATED 3 INCH AMOUNTS CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT. MEANWHILE...AREAS NORTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE WILL BE
REMOVED FROM THE BEST FORCING...BUT STILL SEE SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS.  ACCUMS IN THIS AREA LIKELY TO BE A DUSTING TO LESS THAN AN
INCH.

ALSO...SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MA IS
BEING ENHANCED FROM THE COASTAL FRONT.  A LOT OF THIS PRECIP WILL
BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS PLYMOUTH AND EVEN INTO
PORTIONS OF BRISTOL COUNTY...POINTS SOUTH AND EAST.  HOWEVER...AT
LEAST THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHEAST MA SHOULD SEE SNOW
SHOWERS.  WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON IF COASTAL FRONT SHIFTS
SLIGHTLY THIS MORNING.  IT COULD MEAN THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN AN AREA
GETTING MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS OR PERHAPS AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW.
OVERALL...DO NOT EXPECT THE COASTAL FRONT TO MOVE TOO MUCH THIS
MORNING...BUT JUST A FEW MILES CAN MAKE DIFFERENCE FOR A
PARTICULARLY NEIGHBORHOOD.

BULK OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE THIS MORNING WITH THE SHORTWAVE.
HOWEVER...ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/WEAK LIFT WILL REMAIN THIS
AFTERNOON FOR AT LEAST THIS RISK OF SCATTERED PRECIPITATION AND WILL
MAINTAIN SOME POPS.  HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...

TONIGHT...

A RATHER CLOUDY AND RAW NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  WHILE
THERE IS NOT A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TO TRIGGER A LOT OF
PRECIPITATION...PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/WEAK SHALLOW LIFT
REMAINS.  THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWER
FROM TIME TO TIME.  PTYPE...WOULD BE MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS EXCEPT TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF A NEWPORT...TO TAUNTON...TO JUST NORTH OF
MARSHFIELD LINE.  AGAIN...MUCH OF THE NIGHT WILL PROBABLY END UP
DRY...BUT JUST THE RISK FOR A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* WEAK SHORTWAVE ON MON NIGHT/TUESDAY COULD BRING WINTRY
  MIX/FREEZING RAIN TO THE INTERIOR
* ANOMALOUS SYSTEM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING HEAVY
  RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS AROUND CHRISTMAS
  EVE
* BLUSTERY BUT AIRMASS WILL BE DRYING OUT ON CHRISTMAS DAY

OVERVIEW...

THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES OFFER A REASONABLY SIMILAR AND PREDICTABLE
LARGER SCALE MID TO UPPER LEVEL PATTERN EVOLUTION FOR MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK. THIS ACTIVE FLOW REGIME DEVELOPS SEVERAL MID-UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED/UNSETTLING LEAD SURFACE LOW/FRONTAL
SYSTEMS AND PCPN SWATHS PROGRESS STEADILY ACROSS THE LOWER 48. THE
FIRST AMPLIFIED/DEEP LEAD SYSTEM WORKS ACROSS THE ERN/NERN US INTO
ERN CANADA CHRISTMAS EVE INTO CHRISTMAS ALLOWING FOR A MOIST/WARMED
AIRMASS IN ADVANCE OF FRONTAL APPROACH WITH HEAVIEST LEAD QPF
POTENTIAL OVER NEW ENGLAND. BIGGEST QUESTION IS THE EVOLUTION OF THE
SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. 00Z GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON THE
STRENGTH OF THE LOW AND IS HAVING ISSUES ON HOW TO HANDLE ITS
EVOLUTION. THE EC AND GFS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE SYSTEM SLIGHTLY WITH
THE EC HAVING MORE OF A NEGATIVE TROUGH VS THE GFS. BELIEVE THE
UKMET IS A GOOD COMPROMISE AT IS WAS THE FIRST DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE ON TAMPERING DOWN THE FIRST MAIN LOW...WHILE THE CMC IS OUT
TO LUNCH. REGARDLESS THIS IS A VERY ANOMALOUS SYSTEM THAT IS ABOUT 4
STANDARD DEVIATIONS AWAY.

A SECONDARY SYSTEM DEEPENS ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS ON FRIDAY AND
WITH THE STUBBORN TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S...IT WILL PUSH A
SYSTEM TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM MAY
SUPPORT A MODEST SWATH OF OVERRUNNING SNOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.

DETAILS...

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST
MONDAY...AND WILL BE ON A DEVELOPING WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS LOW
REMAINS WEAK AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES SLOWLY NORTH MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. APPEARS THAT THERE IS DECENT WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS
WAVE. SEVERAL HI-RES GUIDANCE MODELS SHOW THAT THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR COLD AIR DAMMING ACROSS THE INTERIOR INTO TUESDAY.
BIGGEST QUESTION WILL BE IS THERE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR PRECIP DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. DUE TO A STRENGTHENING LLJ PROVIDING A GOOD SOURCE OF
LIFT ANTICIPATE PRECIP TO DEVELOP AND OVERSPREAD ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. IF THIS PLAYS OUT WITH COLD AIR DAMMING AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION...THEN WE COULD SEE FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE ACROSS THE I-91
CORRIDOR LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY...GOOD AMOUNT OF WARM AIR WILL PUSH SURFACE TEMPS ABOVE
FREEZING BY THE LATE MORNING ALLOWING FOR ANY PRECIP TO BE MORE OF
THE LIQUID VARIETY AHEAD OF THE CHRISTMAS EVE STORM. HOWEVER
GUIDANCE IS ALWAYS TOO FAST IN SCOURING TEMPS OUT ESP ACROSS THE CT
VALLEY SO WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS CLOSELY...ESP DUE TO LIGHT
WINDS AND THE HIGH IN EASTERN CANADA. A WINTER WX ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED FOR THE LIGHT ICING POTENTIAL.

WE COULD ALSO SEE SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS ON TUESDAY. SEE
BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SYSTEM LOW CONFIDENCE
ON DETAILS.

ANOMALOUS SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE WILL ROUND THE DEEP TROUGH AND
DEVELOP A SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THIS
SECONDARY LOW WILL STRENGTHEN AND PASS WEST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES TOWARDS EASTERN
CANADA SWINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.

STRONG SOUTHERLY JET OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH A GULF MOISTURE
CONNECTION WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON CHRISTMAS EVE. THIS
STRONG JET WILL YIELD FOR PCPN IN THE LIQUID VARIETY.  PW ANOMALIES
ARE BETWEEN +4 TO +5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL WHICH IS QUITE
ANOMALOUS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. IN FACT CURRENT PWATS ARE PROGGED
ABOVE 1.6 INCHES WITH MODEL QPF OVER 2 INCHES...AT THE VERY LEAST
COULD SEE URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. LATEST EC EVEN SHOWS
OVER 2.5 INCHES OF QPF...AND WITH THE TROPICAL CONNECTION AND STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW COULD SEE HIGHER AMOUNTS DUE TO TOPOGRAPHY
ENHANCEMENTS. RAINFALL RECORDS MAY FALL IF EVERYTHING FALLS INTO
PLACE.

AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL WARM SECTOR WED INTO
THUR MORNING ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. IN
FACT WE MAY BE CLOSE AT BREAKING RECORD HIGH TEMPS IF TEMPS WARM TO
60F OR ABOVE ON CHRISTMAS EVE. SINCE WE WILL BE IN THE WARM
SECTOR...AND SHOWALTERS CLOSE TO ZERO...ISOLATED THUNDER IS STILL
POSSIBLE.

STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE ECMWF SHOWS EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS 30-40 KNOTS ON WEDNESDAY
INCREASING TO 60-75 KNOTS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STRONG DOWNPOURS MAY
OVERCOME THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION AND BRING STRONG GUSTS OF AT LEAST
30-40 KNOTS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED IN SOME AREAS.

CHRISTMAS DAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH EARLY CHRISTMAS DAY...THE WEST
WINDS WILL HELP DRY THE AIRMASS ALLOWING FOR PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.
STRONG CAA ON THURSDAY WILL ALLOW DESCENT MIXING. WINDS IN THE SFC-
850 MB LAYER WILL BE 30-40 KNOTS AND POSSIBLY A LITTLE
HIGHER...WHICH WOULD REQUIRE A WIND ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

FRIDAY-SUNDAY...LOWER CONFIDENCE

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AND SHOULD BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND AT NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS
SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE WITH BORDERLINE VFR TO MARGINAL MVFR CIGS
NORTH OF THE PIKE THROUGH TONIGHT.  AN AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL
EXPAND MAINLY ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF THE PIKE THIS MORNING...BUT A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL STILL AFFECT NORTHERN MA.  VSBYS/CIGS MAY
BRIEFLY DROP TO IFR LEVELS IN NORTHERN CT/RI/SE MA.  PTYPE WILL BE
RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF PLYMOUTH COUNTY AND ONTO THE
CAPE/ISLANDS WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST.  BULK OF PRECIP THIS
MORNING...BUT A FEW LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  A FEW SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING BUT BULK OF ACTIVITY SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS THIS
MORNING MAY DROP AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW.  MVFR CONDITIONS DOMINATE
TODAY....BUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING IN SNOW SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY...MVFR CIGS CONTINUE IN RI/EASTERN MASS IN MARINE EAST FLOW.
VFR IN THE WEST.

TUESDAY...VFR WITH SCATTERED MVFR IN ANY RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS LOWERING TO IFR IN RAIN/HEAVY RAIN. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EAST-SOUTHEAST
SURFACE WINDS MAY GUST TO 35-45 KNOTS. WINDS AT 2000 FEET AGL WILL
REACH 50-60 KNOTS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY NIGHT CREATING LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONCERNS.

CHRISTMAS DAY...WEST WIND GUSTING 30-40 KNOTS. CONDITIONS IMPROVING
TO VFR AS THE WIND BRINGS IN COOLER DRIER AIR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS QUEBEC WILL RESULT IN NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS
THE WATERS THAT WILL GUST TO BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS.  THIS WILL
RESULT IN 2 TO 4 FOOT SEAS.  HOWEVER...NO HEADLINES PLANNED AS
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE

MONDAY...EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING AROUND 15 KNOTS OR LESS.
SEAS WILL HOLD AROUND 3-4 FEET...MAY INCREASE TO 5FT IN NORTHEAST
FLOW AS GUIDANCE MAY BE UNDERDONE.

TUESDAY... INCREASING EAST WINDS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5-6 FEET ON THE EXPOSED WATERS.  A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

WEDNESDAY...RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES PRODUCING POOR VISIBILITY.
INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS 20-25 SUSTAINED AND 40 KNOT GUSTS.  WINDS
SHOULD SHIFT TO SOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SOUTHWEST TOWARD THURSDAY
MORNING. RAIN WILL TAPER OFF WITH THE WIND SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST. SEAS
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD WITH 7-11 FEET HEIGHTS ON THE EXPOSED WATERS.
A GALE WARNING WILL BE NEEDED...WITH A LOW PROB OF A FEW STORM FORCE
GUSTS ACROSS THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS.

CHRISTMAS DAY... WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST 35-40
KNOTS...SO A CONTINUED GALE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED. SEAS OF 7-15 FEET
ARE POSSIBLE ON THE EXPOSED WATERS...AND 5 FEET IS POSSIBLE ON SOME
OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL OCCUR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. BREAKING
IT DOWN...ON TUESDAY HIGH TIDE AT BOSTON WILL BE 11.6 FT. THERE WILL
BE ONSHORE FLOW DURING THIS HIGH TIDE ALLOWING FOR MINOR SPLASHOVER.
IF WIND GUSTS INCREASE THEN COULD POSSIBLE SEE MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING.

ON WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL SWITCH TO A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DURING
THE DAY AND INCREASE QUICKLY FROM APPROACHING SYSTEM AND DECENT
PRESSURE FALLS. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE IN BOSTON IS 11.7 FT
AND WITH ANY STRENGTH ON THE EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL PUSH THE TIDE
OVER. RIGHT NOW BELIEVE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE
EAST COASTLINE.

WEDNESDAY EVENING...THE WIND GOES IN A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AND
THE TIDE WILL BE INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST. HIGH TIDE IN
PROVIDENCE WILL BE 5.2 FT. 925 MB LLJ STRENGTHENS TO 50-60 KTS WHICH
COULD PUSH A DECENT SURGE UP ALONG THE SOUTH COAST DURING THE TIME
OF HIGH TIDE. THINKING THAT MINOR COASTAL FLOODING COULD OCCUR BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT MODERATE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...ESP IF LLJ
STRENGTHENS EVEN MORE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...FRANK/DUNTEN
MARINE...FRANK/DUNTEN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 210916
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
416 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL AFFECT AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE MA
TURNPIKE THIS MORNING...EXCEPT IT WILL BE MILD ENOUGH FOR RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND BRINGING ANOTHER PERIOD OF
PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. A MUCH STRONGER STORM
PASSING WEST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY
WINDS AND COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRY BUT VERY WINDY CONDITIONS FOLLOW FOR
CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

4 AM UPDATE...

APPROACHING SHORTWAVE HAS ALLOWED AN AREA LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO
EXPAND SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE VERY EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS DID EXTEND INTO NORTHERN MA.  RADAR IMAGERY ACTUALLY
OVER SHOOTING SOME OF THE ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHERN CT...BASED ON
OBSERVATIONS.  THE RAIN/SNOW LINE RUNS ROUGHLY FROM NEWPORT...TO
TAUNTON AND JUST NORTH OF MARSHFIELD.  OVERALL...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH
CHANGE IN THE RAIN/SNOW LINE THIS MORNING BASED ON THERMAL PROFILES
AND POSITIONING OF THE COASTAL FRONT.

MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS JUST HOW MUCH SNOW OCCURS THIS MORNING WITH THE
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS CT.  GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE...BEST
FORCING WILL BE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE AND ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHERN CT/RI.  WE WILL FORECAST 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW
ACROSS THIS REGION...BUT A FEW ISOLATED 3 INCH AMOUNTS CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT. MEANWHILE...AREAS NORTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE WILL BE
REMOVED FROM THE BEST FORCING...BUT STILL SEE SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS.  ACCUMS IN THIS AREA LIKELY TO BE A DUSTING TO LESS THAN AN
INCH.

ALSO...SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MA IS
BEING ENHANCED FROM THE COASTAL FRONT.  A LOT OF THIS PRECIP WILL
BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS PLYMOUTH AND EVEN INTO
PORTIONS OF BRISTOL COUNTY...POINTS SOUTH AND EAST.  HOWEVER...AT
LEAST THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHEAST MA SHOULD SEE SNOW
SHOWERS.  WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON IF COASTAL FRONT SHIFTS
SLIGHTLY THIS MORNING.  IT COULD MEAN THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN AN AREA
GETTING MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS OR PERHAPS AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW.
OVERALL...DO NOT EXPECT THE COASTAL FRONT TO MOVE TOO MUCH THIS
MORNING...BUT JUST A FEW MILES CAN MAKE DIFFERENCE FOR A
PARTICULARLY NEIGHBORHOOD.

BULK OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE THIS MORNING WITH THE SHORTWAVE.
HOWEVER...ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/WEAK LIFT WILL REMAIN THIS
AFTERNOON FOR AT LEAST THIS RISK OF SCATTERED PRECIPITATION AND WILL
MAINTAIN SOME POPS.  HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...

TONIGHT...

A RATHER CLOUDY AND RAW NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  WHILE
THERE IS NOT A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TO TRIGGER A LOT OF
PRECIPITATION...PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/WEAK SHALLOW LIFT
REMAINS.  THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWER
FROM TIME TO TIME.  PTYPE...WOULD BE MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS EXCEPT TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF A NEWPORT...TO TAUNTON...TO JUST NORTH OF
MARSHFIELD LINE.  AGAIN...MUCH OF THE NIGHT WILL PROBABLY END UP
DRY...BUT JUST THE RISK FOR A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* WEAK SHORTWAVE ON MON NIGHT/TUESDAY COULD BRING WINTRY
  MIX/FREEZING RAIN TO THE INTERIOR
* ANOMALOUS SYSTEM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING HEAVY
  RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS AROUND CHRISTMAS
  EVE
* BLUSTERY BUT AIRMASS WILL BE DRYING OUT ON CHRISTMAS DAY

OVERVIEW...

THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES OFFER A REASONABLY SIMILAR AND PREDICTABLE
LARGER SCALE MID TO UPPER LEVEL PATTERN EVOLUTION FOR MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK. THIS ACTIVE FLOW REGIME DEVELOPS SEVERAL MID-UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED/UNSETTLING LEAD SURFACE LOW/FRONTAL
SYSTEMS AND PCPN SWATHS PROGRESS STEADILY ACROSS THE LOWER 48. THE
FIRST AMPLIFIED/DEEP LEAD SYSTEM WORKS ACROSS THE ERN/NERN US INTO
ERN CANADA CHRISTMAS EVE INTO CHRISTMAS ALLOWING FOR A MOIST/WARMED
AIRMASS IN ADVANCE OF FRONTAL APPROACH WITH HEAVIEST LEAD QPF
POTENTIAL OVER NEW ENGLAND. BIGGEST QUESTION IS THE EVOLUTION OF THE
SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. 00Z GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON THE
STRENGTH OF THE LOW AND IS HAVING ISSUES ON HOW TO HANDLE ITS
EVOLUTION. THE EC AND GFS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE SYSTEM SLIGHTLY WITH
THE EC HAVING MORE OF A NEGATIVE TROUGH VS THE GFS. BELIEVE THE
UKMET IS A GOOD COMPROMISE AT IS WAS THE FIRST DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE ON TAMPERING DOWN THE FIRST MAIN LOW...WHILE THE CMC IS OUT
TO LUNCH. REGARDLESS THIS IS A VERY ANOMALOUS SYSTEM THAT IS ABOUT 4
STANDARD DEVIATIONS AWAY.

A SECONDARY SYSTEM DEEPENS ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS ON FRIDAY AND
WITH THE STUBBORN TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S...IT WILL PUSH A
SYSTEM TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM MAY
SUPPORT A MODEST SWATH OF OVERRUNNING SNOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.

DETAILS...

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST
MONDAY...AND WILL BE ON A DEVELOPING WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS LOW
REMAINS WEAK AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES SLOWLY NORTH MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. APPEARS THAT THERE IS DECENT WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS
WAVE. SEVERAL HI-RES GUIDANCE MODELS SHOW THAT THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR COLD AIR DAMMING ACROSS THE INTERIOR INTO TUESDAY.
BIGGEST QUESTION WILL BE IS THERE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR PRECIP DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. DUE TO A STRENGTHENING LLJ PROVIDING A GOOD SOURCE OF
LIFT ANTICIPATE PRECIP TO DEVELOP AND OVERSPREAD ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. IF THIS PLAYS OUT WITH COLD AIR DAMMING AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION...THEN WE COULD SEE FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE ACROSS THE I-91
CORRIDOR LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY...GOOD AMOUNT OF WARM AIR WILL PUSH SURFACE TEMPS ABOVE
FREEZING BY THE LATE MORNING ALLOWING FOR ANY PRECIP TO BE MORE OF
THE LIQUID VARIETY AHEAD OF THE CHRISTMAS EVE STORM. HOWEVER
GUIDANCE IS ALWAYS TOO FAST IN SCOURING TEMPS OUT ESP ACROSS THE CT
VALLEY SO WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS CLOSELY...ESP DUE TO LIGHT
WINDS AND THE HIGH IN EASTERN CANADA. A WINTER WX ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED FOR THE LIGHT ICING POTENTIAL.

WE COULD ALSO SEE SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS ON TUESDAY. SEE
BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SYSTEM LOW CONFIDENCE
ON DETAILS.

ANOMALOUS SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE WILL ROUND THE DEEP TROUGH AND
DEVELOP A SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THIS
SECONDARY LOW WILL STRENGTHEN AND PASS WEST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES TOWARDS EASTERN
CANADA SWINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.

STRONG SOUTHERLY JET OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH A GULF MOISTURE
CONNECTION WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON CHRISTMAS EVE. THIS
STRONG JET WILL YIELD FOR PCPN IN THE LIQUID VARIETY.  PW ANOMALIES
ARE BETWEEN +4 TO +5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL WHICH IS QUITE
ANOMALOUS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. IN FACT CURRENT PWATS ARE PROGGED
ABOVE 1.6 INCHES WITH MODEL QPF OVER 2 INCHES...AT THE VERY LEAST
COULD SEE URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. LATEST EC EVEN SHOWS
OVER 2.5 INCHES OF QPF...AND WITH THE TROPICAL CONNECTION AND STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW COULD SEE HIGHER AMOUNTS DUE TO TOPOGRAPHY
ENHANCEMENTS. RAINFALL RECORDS MAY FALL IF EVERYTHING FALLS INTO
PLACE.

AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL WARM SECTOR WED INTO
THUR MORNING ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. IN
FACT WE MAY BE CLOSE AT BREAKING RECORD HIGH TEMPS IF TEMPS WARM TO
60F OR ABOVE ON CHRISTMAS EVE. SINCE WE WILL BE IN THE WARM
SECTOR...AND SHOWALTERS CLOSE TO ZERO...ISOLATED THUNDER IS STILL
POSSIBLE.

STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE ECMWF SHOWS EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS 30-40 KNOTS ON WEDNESDAY
INCREASING TO 60-75 KNOTS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STRONG DOWNPOURS MAY
OVERCOME THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION AND BRING STRONG GUSTS OF AT LEAST
30-40 KNOTS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED IN SOME AREAS.

CHRISTMAS DAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH EARLY CHRISTMAS DAY...THE WEST
WINDS WILL HELP DRY THE AIRMASS ALLOWING FOR PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.
STRONG CAA ON THURSDAY WILL ALLOW DESCENT MIXING. WINDS IN THE SFC-
850 MB LAYER WILL BE 30-40 KNOTS AND POSSIBLY A LITTLE
HIGHER...WHICH WOULD REQUIRE A WIND ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

FRIDAY-SUNDAY...LOWER CONFIDENCE

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AND SHOULD BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND AT NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS
SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE WITH BORDERLINE VFR TO MARGINAL MVFR CIGS
NORTH OF THE PIKE THROUGH TONIGHT.  AN AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL
EXPAND MAINLY ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF THE PIKE THIS MORNING...BUT A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL STILL AFFECT NORTHERN MA.  VSBYS/CIGS MAY
BRIEFLY DROP TO IFR LEVELS IN NORTHERN CT/RI/SE MA.  PTYPE WILL BE
RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF PLYMOUTH COUNTY AND ONTO THE
CAPE/ISLANDS WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST.  BULK OF PRECIP THIS
MORNING...BUT A FEW LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  A FEW SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING BUT BULK OF ACTIVITY SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS THIS
MORNING MAY DROP AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW.  MVFR CONDITIONS DOMINATE
TODAY....BUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING IN SNOW SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY...MVFR CIGS CONTINUE IN RI/EASTERN MASS IN MARINE EAST FLOW.
VFR IN THE WEST.

TUESDAY...VFR WITH SCATTERED MVFR IN ANY RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS LOWERING TO IFR IN RAIN/HEAVY RAIN. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EAST-SOUTHEAST
SURFACE WINDS MAY GUST TO 35-45 KNOTS. WINDS AT 2000 FEET AGL WILL
REACH 50-60 KNOTS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY NIGHT CREATING LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONCERNS.

CHRISTMAS DAY...WEST WIND GUSTING 30-40 KNOTS. CONDITIONS IMPROVING
TO VFR AS THE WIND BRINGS IN COOLER DRIER AIR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS QUEBEC WILL RESULT IN NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS
THE WATERS THAT WILL GUST TO BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS.  THIS WILL
RESULT IN 2 TO 4 FOOT SEAS.  HOWEVER...NO HEADLINES PLANNED AS
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE

MONDAY...EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING AROUND 15 KNOTS OR LESS.
SEAS WILL HOLD AROUND 3-4 FEET...MAY INCREASE TO 5FT IN NORTHEAST
FLOW AS GUIDANCE MAY BE UNDERDONE.

TUESDAY... INCREASING EAST WINDS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5-6 FEET ON THE EXPOSED WATERS.  A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

WEDNESDAY...RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES PRODUCING POOR VISIBILITY.
INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS 20-25 SUSTAINED AND 40 KNOT GUSTS.  WINDS
SHOULD SHIFT TO SOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SOUTHWEST TOWARD THURSDAY
MORNING. RAIN WILL TAPER OFF WITH THE WIND SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST. SEAS
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD WITH 7-11 FEET HEIGHTS ON THE EXPOSED WATERS.
A GALE WARNING WILL BE NEEDED...WITH A LOW PROB OF A FEW STORM FORCE
GUSTS ACROSS THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS.

CHRISTMAS DAY... WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST 35-40
KNOTS...SO A CONTINUED GALE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED. SEAS OF 7-15 FEET
ARE POSSIBLE ON THE EXPOSED WATERS...AND 5 FEET IS POSSIBLE ON SOME
OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL OCCUR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. BREAKING
IT DOWN...ON TUESDAY HIGH TIDE AT BOSTON WILL BE 11.6 FT. THERE WILL
BE ONSHORE FLOW DURING THIS HIGH TIDE ALLOWING FOR MINOR SPLASHOVER.
IF WIND GUSTS INCREASE THEN COULD POSSIBLE SEE MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING.

ON WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL SWITCH TO A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DURING
THE DAY AND INCREASE QUICKLY FROM APPROACHING SYSTEM AND DECENT
PRESSURE FALLS. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE IN BOSTON IS 11.7 FT
AND WITH ANY STRENGTH ON THE EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL PUSH THE TIDE
OVER. RIGHT NOW BELIEVE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE
EAST COASTLINE.

WEDNESDAY EVENING...THE WIND GOES IN A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AND
THE TIDE WILL BE INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST. HIGH TIDE IN
PROVIDENCE WILL BE 5.2 FT. 925 MB LLJ STRENGTHENS TO 50-60 KTS WHICH
COULD PUSH A DECENT SURGE UP ALONG THE SOUTH COAST DURING THE TIME
OF HIGH TIDE. THINKING THAT MINOR COASTAL FLOODING COULD OCCUR BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT MODERATE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...ESP IF LLJ
STRENGTHENS EVEN MORE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...FRANK/DUNTEN
MARINE...FRANK/DUNTEN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 210916
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
416 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL AFFECT AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE MA
TURNPIKE THIS MORNING...EXCEPT IT WILL BE MILD ENOUGH FOR RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND BRINGING ANOTHER PERIOD OF
PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. A MUCH STRONGER STORM
PASSING WEST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY
WINDS AND COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRY BUT VERY WINDY CONDITIONS FOLLOW FOR
CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

4 AM UPDATE...

APPROACHING SHORTWAVE HAS ALLOWED AN AREA LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO
EXPAND SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE VERY EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS DID EXTEND INTO NORTHERN MA.  RADAR IMAGERY ACTUALLY
OVER SHOOTING SOME OF THE ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHERN CT...BASED ON
OBSERVATIONS.  THE RAIN/SNOW LINE RUNS ROUGHLY FROM NEWPORT...TO
TAUNTON AND JUST NORTH OF MARSHFIELD.  OVERALL...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH
CHANGE IN THE RAIN/SNOW LINE THIS MORNING BASED ON THERMAL PROFILES
AND POSITIONING OF THE COASTAL FRONT.

MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS JUST HOW MUCH SNOW OCCURS THIS MORNING WITH THE
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS CT.  GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE...BEST
FORCING WILL BE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE AND ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHERN CT/RI.  WE WILL FORECAST 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW
ACROSS THIS REGION...BUT A FEW ISOLATED 3 INCH AMOUNTS CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT. MEANWHILE...AREAS NORTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE WILL BE
REMOVED FROM THE BEST FORCING...BUT STILL SEE SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS.  ACCUMS IN THIS AREA LIKELY TO BE A DUSTING TO LESS THAN AN
INCH.

ALSO...SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MA IS
BEING ENHANCED FROM THE COASTAL FRONT.  A LOT OF THIS PRECIP WILL
BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS PLYMOUTH AND EVEN INTO
PORTIONS OF BRISTOL COUNTY...POINTS SOUTH AND EAST.  HOWEVER...AT
LEAST THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHEAST MA SHOULD SEE SNOW
SHOWERS.  WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON IF COASTAL FRONT SHIFTS
SLIGHTLY THIS MORNING.  IT COULD MEAN THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN AN AREA
GETTING MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS OR PERHAPS AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW.
OVERALL...DO NOT EXPECT THE COASTAL FRONT TO MOVE TOO MUCH THIS
MORNING...BUT JUST A FEW MILES CAN MAKE DIFFERENCE FOR A
PARTICULARLY NEIGHBORHOOD.

BULK OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE THIS MORNING WITH THE SHORTWAVE.
HOWEVER...ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/WEAK LIFT WILL REMAIN THIS
AFTERNOON FOR AT LEAST THIS RISK OF SCATTERED PRECIPITATION AND WILL
MAINTAIN SOME POPS.  HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...

TONIGHT...

A RATHER CLOUDY AND RAW NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  WHILE
THERE IS NOT A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TO TRIGGER A LOT OF
PRECIPITATION...PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/WEAK SHALLOW LIFT
REMAINS.  THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWER
FROM TIME TO TIME.  PTYPE...WOULD BE MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS EXCEPT TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF A NEWPORT...TO TAUNTON...TO JUST NORTH OF
MARSHFIELD LINE.  AGAIN...MUCH OF THE NIGHT WILL PROBABLY END UP
DRY...BUT JUST THE RISK FOR A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* WEAK SHORTWAVE ON MON NIGHT/TUESDAY COULD BRING WINTRY
  MIX/FREEZING RAIN TO THE INTERIOR
* ANOMALOUS SYSTEM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING HEAVY
  RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS AROUND CHRISTMAS
  EVE
* BLUSTERY BUT AIRMASS WILL BE DRYING OUT ON CHRISTMAS DAY

OVERVIEW...

THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES OFFER A REASONABLY SIMILAR AND PREDICTABLE
LARGER SCALE MID TO UPPER LEVEL PATTERN EVOLUTION FOR MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK. THIS ACTIVE FLOW REGIME DEVELOPS SEVERAL MID-UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED/UNSETTLING LEAD SURFACE LOW/FRONTAL
SYSTEMS AND PCPN SWATHS PROGRESS STEADILY ACROSS THE LOWER 48. THE
FIRST AMPLIFIED/DEEP LEAD SYSTEM WORKS ACROSS THE ERN/NERN US INTO
ERN CANADA CHRISTMAS EVE INTO CHRISTMAS ALLOWING FOR A MOIST/WARMED
AIRMASS IN ADVANCE OF FRONTAL APPROACH WITH HEAVIEST LEAD QPF
POTENTIAL OVER NEW ENGLAND. BIGGEST QUESTION IS THE EVOLUTION OF THE
SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. 00Z GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON THE
STRENGTH OF THE LOW AND IS HAVING ISSUES ON HOW TO HANDLE ITS
EVOLUTION. THE EC AND GFS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE SYSTEM SLIGHTLY WITH
THE EC HAVING MORE OF A NEGATIVE TROUGH VS THE GFS. BELIEVE THE
UKMET IS A GOOD COMPROMISE AT IS WAS THE FIRST DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE ON TAMPERING DOWN THE FIRST MAIN LOW...WHILE THE CMC IS OUT
TO LUNCH. REGARDLESS THIS IS A VERY ANOMALOUS SYSTEM THAT IS ABOUT 4
STANDARD DEVIATIONS AWAY.

A SECONDARY SYSTEM DEEPENS ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS ON FRIDAY AND
WITH THE STUBBORN TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S...IT WILL PUSH A
SYSTEM TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM MAY
SUPPORT A MODEST SWATH OF OVERRUNNING SNOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.

DETAILS...

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST
MONDAY...AND WILL BE ON A DEVELOPING WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS LOW
REMAINS WEAK AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES SLOWLY NORTH MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. APPEARS THAT THERE IS DECENT WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS
WAVE. SEVERAL HI-RES GUIDANCE MODELS SHOW THAT THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR COLD AIR DAMMING ACROSS THE INTERIOR INTO TUESDAY.
BIGGEST QUESTION WILL BE IS THERE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR PRECIP DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. DUE TO A STRENGTHENING LLJ PROVIDING A GOOD SOURCE OF
LIFT ANTICIPATE PRECIP TO DEVELOP AND OVERSPREAD ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. IF THIS PLAYS OUT WITH COLD AIR DAMMING AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION...THEN WE COULD SEE FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE ACROSS THE I-91
CORRIDOR LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY...GOOD AMOUNT OF WARM AIR WILL PUSH SURFACE TEMPS ABOVE
FREEZING BY THE LATE MORNING ALLOWING FOR ANY PRECIP TO BE MORE OF
THE LIQUID VARIETY AHEAD OF THE CHRISTMAS EVE STORM. HOWEVER
GUIDANCE IS ALWAYS TOO FAST IN SCOURING TEMPS OUT ESP ACROSS THE CT
VALLEY SO WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS CLOSELY...ESP DUE TO LIGHT
WINDS AND THE HIGH IN EASTERN CANADA. A WINTER WX ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED FOR THE LIGHT ICING POTENTIAL.

WE COULD ALSO SEE SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS ON TUESDAY. SEE
BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SYSTEM LOW CONFIDENCE
ON DETAILS.

ANOMALOUS SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE WILL ROUND THE DEEP TROUGH AND
DEVELOP A SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THIS
SECONDARY LOW WILL STRENGTHEN AND PASS WEST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES TOWARDS EASTERN
CANADA SWINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.

STRONG SOUTHERLY JET OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH A GULF MOISTURE
CONNECTION WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON CHRISTMAS EVE. THIS
STRONG JET WILL YIELD FOR PCPN IN THE LIQUID VARIETY.  PW ANOMALIES
ARE BETWEEN +4 TO +5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL WHICH IS QUITE
ANOMALOUS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. IN FACT CURRENT PWATS ARE PROGGED
ABOVE 1.6 INCHES WITH MODEL QPF OVER 2 INCHES...AT THE VERY LEAST
COULD SEE URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. LATEST EC EVEN SHOWS
OVER 2.5 INCHES OF QPF...AND WITH THE TROPICAL CONNECTION AND STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW COULD SEE HIGHER AMOUNTS DUE TO TOPOGRAPHY
ENHANCEMENTS. RAINFALL RECORDS MAY FALL IF EVERYTHING FALLS INTO
PLACE.

AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL WARM SECTOR WED INTO
THUR MORNING ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. IN
FACT WE MAY BE CLOSE AT BREAKING RECORD HIGH TEMPS IF TEMPS WARM TO
60F OR ABOVE ON CHRISTMAS EVE. SINCE WE WILL BE IN THE WARM
SECTOR...AND SHOWALTERS CLOSE TO ZERO...ISOLATED THUNDER IS STILL
POSSIBLE.

STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE ECMWF SHOWS EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS 30-40 KNOTS ON WEDNESDAY
INCREASING TO 60-75 KNOTS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STRONG DOWNPOURS MAY
OVERCOME THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION AND BRING STRONG GUSTS OF AT LEAST
30-40 KNOTS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED IN SOME AREAS.

CHRISTMAS DAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH EARLY CHRISTMAS DAY...THE WEST
WINDS WILL HELP DRY THE AIRMASS ALLOWING FOR PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.
STRONG CAA ON THURSDAY WILL ALLOW DESCENT MIXING. WINDS IN THE SFC-
850 MB LAYER WILL BE 30-40 KNOTS AND POSSIBLY A LITTLE
HIGHER...WHICH WOULD REQUIRE A WIND ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

FRIDAY-SUNDAY...LOWER CONFIDENCE

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AND SHOULD BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND AT NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS
SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE WITH BORDERLINE VFR TO MARGINAL MVFR CIGS
NORTH OF THE PIKE THROUGH TONIGHT.  AN AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL
EXPAND MAINLY ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF THE PIKE THIS MORNING...BUT A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL STILL AFFECT NORTHERN MA.  VSBYS/CIGS MAY
BRIEFLY DROP TO IFR LEVELS IN NORTHERN CT/RI/SE MA.  PTYPE WILL BE
RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF PLYMOUTH COUNTY AND ONTO THE
CAPE/ISLANDS WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST.  BULK OF PRECIP THIS
MORNING...BUT A FEW LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  A FEW SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING BUT BULK OF ACTIVITY SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS THIS
MORNING MAY DROP AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW.  MVFR CONDITIONS DOMINATE
TODAY....BUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING IN SNOW SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY...MVFR CIGS CONTINUE IN RI/EASTERN MASS IN MARINE EAST FLOW.
VFR IN THE WEST.

TUESDAY...VFR WITH SCATTERED MVFR IN ANY RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS LOWERING TO IFR IN RAIN/HEAVY RAIN. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EAST-SOUTHEAST
SURFACE WINDS MAY GUST TO 35-45 KNOTS. WINDS AT 2000 FEET AGL WILL
REACH 50-60 KNOTS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY NIGHT CREATING LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONCERNS.

CHRISTMAS DAY...WEST WIND GUSTING 30-40 KNOTS. CONDITIONS IMPROVING
TO VFR AS THE WIND BRINGS IN COOLER DRIER AIR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS QUEBEC WILL RESULT IN NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS
THE WATERS THAT WILL GUST TO BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS.  THIS WILL
RESULT IN 2 TO 4 FOOT SEAS.  HOWEVER...NO HEADLINES PLANNED AS
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE

MONDAY...EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING AROUND 15 KNOTS OR LESS.
SEAS WILL HOLD AROUND 3-4 FEET...MAY INCREASE TO 5FT IN NORTHEAST
FLOW AS GUIDANCE MAY BE UNDERDONE.

TUESDAY... INCREASING EAST WINDS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5-6 FEET ON THE EXPOSED WATERS.  A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

WEDNESDAY...RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES PRODUCING POOR VISIBILITY.
INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS 20-25 SUSTAINED AND 40 KNOT GUSTS.  WINDS
SHOULD SHIFT TO SOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SOUTHWEST TOWARD THURSDAY
MORNING. RAIN WILL TAPER OFF WITH THE WIND SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST. SEAS
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD WITH 7-11 FEET HEIGHTS ON THE EXPOSED WATERS.
A GALE WARNING WILL BE NEEDED...WITH A LOW PROB OF A FEW STORM FORCE
GUSTS ACROSS THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS.

CHRISTMAS DAY... WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST 35-40
KNOTS...SO A CONTINUED GALE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED. SEAS OF 7-15 FEET
ARE POSSIBLE ON THE EXPOSED WATERS...AND 5 FEET IS POSSIBLE ON SOME
OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL OCCUR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. BREAKING
IT DOWN...ON TUESDAY HIGH TIDE AT BOSTON WILL BE 11.6 FT. THERE WILL
BE ONSHORE FLOW DURING THIS HIGH TIDE ALLOWING FOR MINOR SPLASHOVER.
IF WIND GUSTS INCREASE THEN COULD POSSIBLE SEE MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING.

ON WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL SWITCH TO A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DURING
THE DAY AND INCREASE QUICKLY FROM APPROACHING SYSTEM AND DECENT
PRESSURE FALLS. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE IN BOSTON IS 11.7 FT
AND WITH ANY STRENGTH ON THE EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL PUSH THE TIDE
OVER. RIGHT NOW BELIEVE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE
EAST COASTLINE.

WEDNESDAY EVENING...THE WIND GOES IN A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AND
THE TIDE WILL BE INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST. HIGH TIDE IN
PROVIDENCE WILL BE 5.2 FT. 925 MB LLJ STRENGTHENS TO 50-60 KTS WHICH
COULD PUSH A DECENT SURGE UP ALONG THE SOUTH COAST DURING THE TIME
OF HIGH TIDE. THINKING THAT MINOR COASTAL FLOODING COULD OCCUR BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT MODERATE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...ESP IF LLJ
STRENGTHENS EVEN MORE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...FRANK/DUNTEN
MARINE...FRANK/DUNTEN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KOKX 210856
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
356 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH REMAINING NEARBY. HIGH PRESSURE OTHERWISE REMAINS
OVER THE REGION INTO MONDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WEAKENS AS IT
APPROACHES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM
SYSTEM THEN AFFECTS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS IN ITS WAKE ON CHRISTMAS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL THEN AFFECT THE
REGION NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES FOR DRY WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE CWA.
HOWEVER...A SURFACE TROUGH OVER EASTERN ZONES WILL ACT AS A FOCUS
FOR MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...AND LIFT WILL BE PROVIDED ALOFT AS A
SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH. PCPN TYPE MAINLY SNOW WITH SUFFICIENT
ICE NUCLEI LIKELY PRESENT...BUT BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS ACROSS EASTERN
LONG ISLAND COMPLICATE THE FORECAST. PROBABLY A MIXTURE OF LIGHT
RAIN AND SNOW THERE...MAYBE EVEN MOSTLY RAIN OVER THE FORKS.
IN SHORT...TRACE TO HALF INCH OF SNOW CURRENTLY FORECAST OVER LONG
ISLAND...WITH UP TO AROUND AN INCH ACROSS PARTS OF SE CT. MOST OF
THE REST OF THE CWA COULD GET A FLURRY OR TWO THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
LIFT AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE EXIT EAST BY EARLY THIS EVENING...AND
THE SURFACE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS SLIGHTLY WEST.
WILL GO WITH SCT FLURRIES OVER LI AND CT...AND PCPN TYPE OF
SPRINKLES ALSO PROBABLY PRESENT EARLY IN THE EVENING FOR THE
COASTAL SECTIONS.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST ON MONDAY AND BEGINS TO HEAD NORTH. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST SHIFTS FARTHER EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW LOW
LEVEL WINDS HERE VEER TO THE EAST AND AID LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH FROM THE CENTER OF THE
LOW WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR WEAK LIFT AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.
LOW CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN RESULT...BUT RESERVED FOR THE AFTERNOON.

THE LOW CENTER WEAKENS AS IT HEADS NORTH MONDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE LOW STILL STRENGTHENS...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE STILL INCREASES ON AN ENE FLOW...AND THE SURFACE
TROUGH WILL STILL BE IN THE VICINITY. CHC POPS FOR THIS PERIOD.
THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT RAIN FOR MOST OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...FOR
SOME NW SECTIONS...MODELS SHOWING A WARM NOSE ALOFT...ALLOWING FOR
A CHANCE OF SLEET DURING THE EVENING...THEN POSSIBLY FREEZING RAIN
AS THE WARMEST PART OF THE NOSE EXCEEDS 3C AND SURFACE TEMPS HOVER
AROUND FREEZING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK LOW TO THE SOUTH CONTINUES TO WEAKEN ON TUESDAY...BUT THE
SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS IN THE VICINITY. ECMWF OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS
HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY WETTER FOR TUESDAY...WITH THE GFS CONSISTENTLY
DRIER...AND THE NAM SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN DEPENDING ON LOCATION. WILL
CAP POPS AT 50% AS PER PREVIOUS FORECAST GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY.
FREEZING RAIN STILL POSSIBLE EARLY ON IN THE MORNING FOR THE FAR NW
PORTION OF THE CWA...OTHERWISE...LIGHT RAIN. RAIN THEN BECOMES MORE
LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT.

A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM THEN AFFECTS US CHRISTMAS EVE AND DAY.
MODELS SHOW A STRONG PRIMARY LOW CENTER MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE MOVING INTO ONTARIO ON THURSDAY. A
WEAKER SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE CENTER OR TRIPLE POINT LOW FORMS IN
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BEFORE PASSING NORTH OF US WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT.
CATEGORICAL POPS FOR WEDS/WEDS EVENING BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT...SO BY CHRISTMAS MORNING...SHOWERS STILL LIKELY EARLY ON FOR
THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THE CWA...WITH MAINLY LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS
ELSEWHERE. BY NOON...LIKELY DRY EVERYWHERE.

BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR WEDS THRU THURS. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET PUSHES
THROUGH THE EASTERN ZONES WEDS AFTN/EVE...BUT STRONG GUSTS WILL
PROBABLY HAVE A TOUGH TIME MIXING DOWN THROUGH AN INVERSION.
STRONGER GUSTS MAY BE REALIZED DURING THURSDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
COURTESY OF BETTER MIXING. LOOKS LIKE WE FALL SHORT OF WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA HOWEVER. WILL NEED TO KEEP AND EYE ON THIS TO SEE IF THE
WEAKENING TREND CONTINUES. TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE ABOVE
AVERAGE. HIGHS ON WEDS IN WELL INTO THE 50S...AND WITH A MODERATE
WSW FLOW AND PARTIAL SUNSHINE ON THURSDAY...HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS COOLER
TEMPS...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMALS. THEN FOR NEXT WEEKEND...ANOTHER
INLAND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD IMPACT THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WILL DEPART EARLY IN THE WEEK.

WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE TERMINALS WILL GRADUALLY SCATTER OUT
TO VFR AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES POSSIBLE EAST
OF KNYC TERMINALS. VSBYS MAY BRIEFLY DIP TO MVFR...OR EVEN IFR. MVFR
CIGS MAY LINGER AT EASTERN TERMINALS INTO THE AFTERNOON.

MVFR CIGS THEN RETURN ACROSS THE TERMINALS TONIGHT.

LGT/VRB WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME NW AT 5-7 KT...AND THEN WILL
BECOME LGT/VRB AGAIN TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 09Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.TONIGHT...MVFR CIGS. LGT/VRB WINDS.
.MON-MON NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN E FLOW. CHC OF RAIN.
.TUE-TUE NIGHT...IFR LIKELY IN RAIN...CIGS AND VSBYS. E WINDS
10-20 KT...BECOMING SE.
.WED...HIGH IMPACT EVENT POSSIBLE...IFR LIKELY WITH HEAVY RAIN AND
GUSTY SE WINDS 25KT+ SHIFTING TO SW LATE WED.
.THU...SUB VFR EARLY IN SHOWERS...THEN VFR WITH GUSTY WESTERLY
WINDS 20-25 KT G40 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRES BUILDS NORTH OF THE WATERS. NORTH WINDS 10 KT OR LESS
ALONG WITH SEAS GENERALLY 1-2 FT ON THE OCEAN OR 1 FT OR LESS ON ALL
OTHER WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS...WITH SEAS ALSO
REMAINING BELOW 5 FT. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA
WATERS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW. SMALL CRAFT WIND
AND SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT...AND ACROSS ALL THE WATERS WEDNESDAY. THEN IN THE COLDER AIR
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY WIND GUSTS WILL BE GALE FORCE ACROSS
ALL THE WATERS AND REMAIN INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTS DIMINISHING
TOWARD FRIDAY MORNING...WITH GUSTS BELOW SMALL CRAFT LATER WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS WILL REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD TOTAL 1
TO 2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. MUCH OF THE RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MINOR URBAN AND
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...MPS
HYDROLOGY...JC







000
FXUS61 KOKX 210856
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
356 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH REMAINING NEARBY. HIGH PRESSURE OTHERWISE REMAINS
OVER THE REGION INTO MONDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WEAKENS AS IT
APPROACHES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM
SYSTEM THEN AFFECTS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS IN ITS WAKE ON CHRISTMAS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL THEN AFFECT THE
REGION NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES FOR DRY WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE CWA.
HOWEVER...A SURFACE TROUGH OVER EASTERN ZONES WILL ACT AS A FOCUS
FOR MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...AND LIFT WILL BE PROVIDED ALOFT AS A
SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH. PCPN TYPE MAINLY SNOW WITH SUFFICIENT
ICE NUCLEI LIKELY PRESENT...BUT BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS ACROSS EASTERN
LONG ISLAND COMPLICATE THE FORECAST. PROBABLY A MIXTURE OF LIGHT
RAIN AND SNOW THERE...MAYBE EVEN MOSTLY RAIN OVER THE FORKS.
IN SHORT...TRACE TO HALF INCH OF SNOW CURRENTLY FORECAST OVER LONG
ISLAND...WITH UP TO AROUND AN INCH ACROSS PARTS OF SE CT. MOST OF
THE REST OF THE CWA COULD GET A FLURRY OR TWO THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
LIFT AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE EXIT EAST BY EARLY THIS EVENING...AND
THE SURFACE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS SLIGHTLY WEST.
WILL GO WITH SCT FLURRIES OVER LI AND CT...AND PCPN TYPE OF
SPRINKLES ALSO PROBABLY PRESENT EARLY IN THE EVENING FOR THE
COASTAL SECTIONS.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST ON MONDAY AND BEGINS TO HEAD NORTH. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST SHIFTS FARTHER EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW LOW
LEVEL WINDS HERE VEER TO THE EAST AND AID LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH FROM THE CENTER OF THE
LOW WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR WEAK LIFT AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.
LOW CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN RESULT...BUT RESERVED FOR THE AFTERNOON.

THE LOW CENTER WEAKENS AS IT HEADS NORTH MONDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE LOW STILL STRENGTHENS...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE STILL INCREASES ON AN ENE FLOW...AND THE SURFACE
TROUGH WILL STILL BE IN THE VICINITY. CHC POPS FOR THIS PERIOD.
THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT RAIN FOR MOST OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...FOR
SOME NW SECTIONS...MODELS SHOWING A WARM NOSE ALOFT...ALLOWING FOR
A CHANCE OF SLEET DURING THE EVENING...THEN POSSIBLY FREEZING RAIN
AS THE WARMEST PART OF THE NOSE EXCEEDS 3C AND SURFACE TEMPS HOVER
AROUND FREEZING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK LOW TO THE SOUTH CONTINUES TO WEAKEN ON TUESDAY...BUT THE
SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS IN THE VICINITY. ECMWF OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS
HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY WETTER FOR TUESDAY...WITH THE GFS CONSISTENTLY
DRIER...AND THE NAM SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN DEPENDING ON LOCATION. WILL
CAP POPS AT 50% AS PER PREVIOUS FORECAST GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY.
FREEZING RAIN STILL POSSIBLE EARLY ON IN THE MORNING FOR THE FAR NW
PORTION OF THE CWA...OTHERWISE...LIGHT RAIN. RAIN THEN BECOMES MORE
LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT.

A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM THEN AFFECTS US CHRISTMAS EVE AND DAY.
MODELS SHOW A STRONG PRIMARY LOW CENTER MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE MOVING INTO ONTARIO ON THURSDAY. A
WEAKER SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE CENTER OR TRIPLE POINT LOW FORMS IN
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BEFORE PASSING NORTH OF US WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT.
CATEGORICAL POPS FOR WEDS/WEDS EVENING BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT...SO BY CHRISTMAS MORNING...SHOWERS STILL LIKELY EARLY ON FOR
THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THE CWA...WITH MAINLY LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS
ELSEWHERE. BY NOON...LIKELY DRY EVERYWHERE.

BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR WEDS THRU THURS. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET PUSHES
THROUGH THE EASTERN ZONES WEDS AFTN/EVE...BUT STRONG GUSTS WILL
PROBABLY HAVE A TOUGH TIME MIXING DOWN THROUGH AN INVERSION.
STRONGER GUSTS MAY BE REALIZED DURING THURSDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
COURTESY OF BETTER MIXING. LOOKS LIKE WE FALL SHORT OF WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA HOWEVER. WILL NEED TO KEEP AND EYE ON THIS TO SEE IF THE
WEAKENING TREND CONTINUES. TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE ABOVE
AVERAGE. HIGHS ON WEDS IN WELL INTO THE 50S...AND WITH A MODERATE
WSW FLOW AND PARTIAL SUNSHINE ON THURSDAY...HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS COOLER
TEMPS...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMALS. THEN FOR NEXT WEEKEND...ANOTHER
INLAND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD IMPACT THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WILL DEPART EARLY IN THE WEEK.

WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE TERMINALS WILL GRADUALLY SCATTER OUT
TO VFR AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES POSSIBLE EAST
OF KNYC TERMINALS. VSBYS MAY BRIEFLY DIP TO MVFR...OR EVEN IFR. MVFR
CIGS MAY LINGER AT EASTERN TERMINALS INTO THE AFTERNOON.

MVFR CIGS THEN RETURN ACROSS THE TERMINALS TONIGHT.

LGT/VRB WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME NW AT 5-7 KT...AND THEN WILL
BECOME LGT/VRB AGAIN TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 09Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.TONIGHT...MVFR CIGS. LGT/VRB WINDS.
.MON-MON NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN E FLOW. CHC OF RAIN.
.TUE-TUE NIGHT...IFR LIKELY IN RAIN...CIGS AND VSBYS. E WINDS
10-20 KT...BECOMING SE.
.WED...HIGH IMPACT EVENT POSSIBLE...IFR LIKELY WITH HEAVY RAIN AND
GUSTY SE WINDS 25KT+ SHIFTING TO SW LATE WED.
.THU...SUB VFR EARLY IN SHOWERS...THEN VFR WITH GUSTY WESTERLY
WINDS 20-25 KT G40 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRES BUILDS NORTH OF THE WATERS. NORTH WINDS 10 KT OR LESS
ALONG WITH SEAS GENERALLY 1-2 FT ON THE OCEAN OR 1 FT OR LESS ON ALL
OTHER WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS...WITH SEAS ALSO
REMAINING BELOW 5 FT. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA
WATERS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW. SMALL CRAFT WIND
AND SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT...AND ACROSS ALL THE WATERS WEDNESDAY. THEN IN THE COLDER AIR
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY WIND GUSTS WILL BE GALE FORCE ACROSS
ALL THE WATERS AND REMAIN INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTS DIMINISHING
TOWARD FRIDAY MORNING...WITH GUSTS BELOW SMALL CRAFT LATER WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS WILL REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD TOTAL 1
TO 2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. MUCH OF THE RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MINOR URBAN AND
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...MPS
HYDROLOGY...JC







000
FXUS61 KOKX 210856
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
356 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH REMAINING NEARBY. HIGH PRESSURE OTHERWISE REMAINS
OVER THE REGION INTO MONDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WEAKENS AS IT
APPROACHES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM
SYSTEM THEN AFFECTS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS IN ITS WAKE ON CHRISTMAS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL THEN AFFECT THE
REGION NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES FOR DRY WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE CWA.
HOWEVER...A SURFACE TROUGH OVER EASTERN ZONES WILL ACT AS A FOCUS
FOR MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...AND LIFT WILL BE PROVIDED ALOFT AS A
SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH. PCPN TYPE MAINLY SNOW WITH SUFFICIENT
ICE NUCLEI LIKELY PRESENT...BUT BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS ACROSS EASTERN
LONG ISLAND COMPLICATE THE FORECAST. PROBABLY A MIXTURE OF LIGHT
RAIN AND SNOW THERE...MAYBE EVEN MOSTLY RAIN OVER THE FORKS.
IN SHORT...TRACE TO HALF INCH OF SNOW CURRENTLY FORECAST OVER LONG
ISLAND...WITH UP TO AROUND AN INCH ACROSS PARTS OF SE CT. MOST OF
THE REST OF THE CWA COULD GET A FLURRY OR TWO THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
LIFT AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE EXIT EAST BY EARLY THIS EVENING...AND
THE SURFACE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS SLIGHTLY WEST.
WILL GO WITH SCT FLURRIES OVER LI AND CT...AND PCPN TYPE OF
SPRINKLES ALSO PROBABLY PRESENT EARLY IN THE EVENING FOR THE
COASTAL SECTIONS.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST ON MONDAY AND BEGINS TO HEAD NORTH. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST SHIFTS FARTHER EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW LOW
LEVEL WINDS HERE VEER TO THE EAST AND AID LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH FROM THE CENTER OF THE
LOW WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR WEAK LIFT AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.
LOW CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN RESULT...BUT RESERVED FOR THE AFTERNOON.

THE LOW CENTER WEAKENS AS IT HEADS NORTH MONDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE LOW STILL STRENGTHENS...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE STILL INCREASES ON AN ENE FLOW...AND THE SURFACE
TROUGH WILL STILL BE IN THE VICINITY. CHC POPS FOR THIS PERIOD.
THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT RAIN FOR MOST OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...FOR
SOME NW SECTIONS...MODELS SHOWING A WARM NOSE ALOFT...ALLOWING FOR
A CHANCE OF SLEET DURING THE EVENING...THEN POSSIBLY FREEZING RAIN
AS THE WARMEST PART OF THE NOSE EXCEEDS 3C AND SURFACE TEMPS HOVER
AROUND FREEZING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK LOW TO THE SOUTH CONTINUES TO WEAKEN ON TUESDAY...BUT THE
SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS IN THE VICINITY. ECMWF OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS
HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY WETTER FOR TUESDAY...WITH THE GFS CONSISTENTLY
DRIER...AND THE NAM SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN DEPENDING ON LOCATION. WILL
CAP POPS AT 50% AS PER PREVIOUS FORECAST GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY.
FREEZING RAIN STILL POSSIBLE EARLY ON IN THE MORNING FOR THE FAR NW
PORTION OF THE CWA...OTHERWISE...LIGHT RAIN. RAIN THEN BECOMES MORE
LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT.

A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM THEN AFFECTS US CHRISTMAS EVE AND DAY.
MODELS SHOW A STRONG PRIMARY LOW CENTER MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE MOVING INTO ONTARIO ON THURSDAY. A
WEAKER SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE CENTER OR TRIPLE POINT LOW FORMS IN
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BEFORE PASSING NORTH OF US WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT.
CATEGORICAL POPS FOR WEDS/WEDS EVENING BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT...SO BY CHRISTMAS MORNING...SHOWERS STILL LIKELY EARLY ON FOR
THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THE CWA...WITH MAINLY LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS
ELSEWHERE. BY NOON...LIKELY DRY EVERYWHERE.

BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR WEDS THRU THURS. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET PUSHES
THROUGH THE EASTERN ZONES WEDS AFTN/EVE...BUT STRONG GUSTS WILL
PROBABLY HAVE A TOUGH TIME MIXING DOWN THROUGH AN INVERSION.
STRONGER GUSTS MAY BE REALIZED DURING THURSDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
COURTESY OF BETTER MIXING. LOOKS LIKE WE FALL SHORT OF WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA HOWEVER. WILL NEED TO KEEP AND EYE ON THIS TO SEE IF THE
WEAKENING TREND CONTINUES. TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE ABOVE
AVERAGE. HIGHS ON WEDS IN WELL INTO THE 50S...AND WITH A MODERATE
WSW FLOW AND PARTIAL SUNSHINE ON THURSDAY...HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS COOLER
TEMPS...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMALS. THEN FOR NEXT WEEKEND...ANOTHER
INLAND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD IMPACT THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WILL DEPART EARLY IN THE WEEK.

WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE TERMINALS WILL GRADUALLY SCATTER OUT
TO VFR AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES POSSIBLE EAST
OF KNYC TERMINALS. VSBYS MAY BRIEFLY DIP TO MVFR...OR EVEN IFR. MVFR
CIGS MAY LINGER AT EASTERN TERMINALS INTO THE AFTERNOON.

MVFR CIGS THEN RETURN ACROSS THE TERMINALS TONIGHT.

LGT/VRB WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME NW AT 5-7 KT...AND THEN WILL
BECOME LGT/VRB AGAIN TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 09Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.TONIGHT...MVFR CIGS. LGT/VRB WINDS.
.MON-MON NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN E FLOW. CHC OF RAIN.
.TUE-TUE NIGHT...IFR LIKELY IN RAIN...CIGS AND VSBYS. E WINDS
10-20 KT...BECOMING SE.
.WED...HIGH IMPACT EVENT POSSIBLE...IFR LIKELY WITH HEAVY RAIN AND
GUSTY SE WINDS 25KT+ SHIFTING TO SW LATE WED.
.THU...SUB VFR EARLY IN SHOWERS...THEN VFR WITH GUSTY WESTERLY
WINDS 20-25 KT G40 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRES BUILDS NORTH OF THE WATERS. NORTH WINDS 10 KT OR LESS
ALONG WITH SEAS GENERALLY 1-2 FT ON THE OCEAN OR 1 FT OR LESS ON ALL
OTHER WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS...WITH SEAS ALSO
REMAINING BELOW 5 FT. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA
WATERS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW. SMALL CRAFT WIND
AND SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT...AND ACROSS ALL THE WATERS WEDNESDAY. THEN IN THE COLDER AIR
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY WIND GUSTS WILL BE GALE FORCE ACROSS
ALL THE WATERS AND REMAIN INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTS DIMINISHING
TOWARD FRIDAY MORNING...WITH GUSTS BELOW SMALL CRAFT LATER WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS WILL REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD TOTAL 1
TO 2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. MUCH OF THE RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MINOR URBAN AND
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...MPS
HYDROLOGY...JC







000
FXUS61 KOKX 210856
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
356 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH REMAINING NEARBY. HIGH PRESSURE OTHERWISE REMAINS
OVER THE REGION INTO MONDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WEAKENS AS IT
APPROACHES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM
SYSTEM THEN AFFECTS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS IN ITS WAKE ON CHRISTMAS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL THEN AFFECT THE
REGION NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES FOR DRY WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE CWA.
HOWEVER...A SURFACE TROUGH OVER EASTERN ZONES WILL ACT AS A FOCUS
FOR MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...AND LIFT WILL BE PROVIDED ALOFT AS A
SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH. PCPN TYPE MAINLY SNOW WITH SUFFICIENT
ICE NUCLEI LIKELY PRESENT...BUT BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS ACROSS EASTERN
LONG ISLAND COMPLICATE THE FORECAST. PROBABLY A MIXTURE OF LIGHT
RAIN AND SNOW THERE...MAYBE EVEN MOSTLY RAIN OVER THE FORKS.
IN SHORT...TRACE TO HALF INCH OF SNOW CURRENTLY FORECAST OVER LONG
ISLAND...WITH UP TO AROUND AN INCH ACROSS PARTS OF SE CT. MOST OF
THE REST OF THE CWA COULD GET A FLURRY OR TWO THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
LIFT AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE EXIT EAST BY EARLY THIS EVENING...AND
THE SURFACE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS SLIGHTLY WEST.
WILL GO WITH SCT FLURRIES OVER LI AND CT...AND PCPN TYPE OF
SPRINKLES ALSO PROBABLY PRESENT EARLY IN THE EVENING FOR THE
COASTAL SECTIONS.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST ON MONDAY AND BEGINS TO HEAD NORTH. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST SHIFTS FARTHER EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW LOW
LEVEL WINDS HERE VEER TO THE EAST AND AID LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH FROM THE CENTER OF THE
LOW WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR WEAK LIFT AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.
LOW CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN RESULT...BUT RESERVED FOR THE AFTERNOON.

THE LOW CENTER WEAKENS AS IT HEADS NORTH MONDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE LOW STILL STRENGTHENS...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE STILL INCREASES ON AN ENE FLOW...AND THE SURFACE
TROUGH WILL STILL BE IN THE VICINITY. CHC POPS FOR THIS PERIOD.
THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT RAIN FOR MOST OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...FOR
SOME NW SECTIONS...MODELS SHOWING A WARM NOSE ALOFT...ALLOWING FOR
A CHANCE OF SLEET DURING THE EVENING...THEN POSSIBLY FREEZING RAIN
AS THE WARMEST PART OF THE NOSE EXCEEDS 3C AND SURFACE TEMPS HOVER
AROUND FREEZING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK LOW TO THE SOUTH CONTINUES TO WEAKEN ON TUESDAY...BUT THE
SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS IN THE VICINITY. ECMWF OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS
HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY WETTER FOR TUESDAY...WITH THE GFS CONSISTENTLY
DRIER...AND THE NAM SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN DEPENDING ON LOCATION. WILL
CAP POPS AT 50% AS PER PREVIOUS FORECAST GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY.
FREEZING RAIN STILL POSSIBLE EARLY ON IN THE MORNING FOR THE FAR NW
PORTION OF THE CWA...OTHERWISE...LIGHT RAIN. RAIN THEN BECOMES MORE
LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT.

A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM THEN AFFECTS US CHRISTMAS EVE AND DAY.
MODELS SHOW A STRONG PRIMARY LOW CENTER MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE MOVING INTO ONTARIO ON THURSDAY. A
WEAKER SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE CENTER OR TRIPLE POINT LOW FORMS IN
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BEFORE PASSING NORTH OF US WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT.
CATEGORICAL POPS FOR WEDS/WEDS EVENING BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT...SO BY CHRISTMAS MORNING...SHOWERS STILL LIKELY EARLY ON FOR
THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THE CWA...WITH MAINLY LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS
ELSEWHERE. BY NOON...LIKELY DRY EVERYWHERE.

BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR WEDS THRU THURS. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET PUSHES
THROUGH THE EASTERN ZONES WEDS AFTN/EVE...BUT STRONG GUSTS WILL
PROBABLY HAVE A TOUGH TIME MIXING DOWN THROUGH AN INVERSION.
STRONGER GUSTS MAY BE REALIZED DURING THURSDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
COURTESY OF BETTER MIXING. LOOKS LIKE WE FALL SHORT OF WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA HOWEVER. WILL NEED TO KEEP AND EYE ON THIS TO SEE IF THE
WEAKENING TREND CONTINUES. TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE ABOVE
AVERAGE. HIGHS ON WEDS IN WELL INTO THE 50S...AND WITH A MODERATE
WSW FLOW AND PARTIAL SUNSHINE ON THURSDAY...HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS COOLER
TEMPS...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMALS. THEN FOR NEXT WEEKEND...ANOTHER
INLAND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD IMPACT THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WILL DEPART EARLY IN THE WEEK.

WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE TERMINALS WILL GRADUALLY SCATTER OUT
TO VFR AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES POSSIBLE EAST
OF KNYC TERMINALS. VSBYS MAY BRIEFLY DIP TO MVFR...OR EVEN IFR. MVFR
CIGS MAY LINGER AT EASTERN TERMINALS INTO THE AFTERNOON.

MVFR CIGS THEN RETURN ACROSS THE TERMINALS TONIGHT.

LGT/VRB WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME NW AT 5-7 KT...AND THEN WILL
BECOME LGT/VRB AGAIN TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 09Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.TONIGHT...MVFR CIGS. LGT/VRB WINDS.
.MON-MON NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN E FLOW. CHC OF RAIN.
.TUE-TUE NIGHT...IFR LIKELY IN RAIN...CIGS AND VSBYS. E WINDS
10-20 KT...BECOMING SE.
.WED...HIGH IMPACT EVENT POSSIBLE...IFR LIKELY WITH HEAVY RAIN AND
GUSTY SE WINDS 25KT+ SHIFTING TO SW LATE WED.
.THU...SUB VFR EARLY IN SHOWERS...THEN VFR WITH GUSTY WESTERLY
WINDS 20-25 KT G40 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRES BUILDS NORTH OF THE WATERS. NORTH WINDS 10 KT OR LESS
ALONG WITH SEAS GENERALLY 1-2 FT ON THE OCEAN OR 1 FT OR LESS ON ALL
OTHER WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS...WITH SEAS ALSO
REMAINING BELOW 5 FT. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA
WATERS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW. SMALL CRAFT WIND
AND SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT...AND ACROSS ALL THE WATERS WEDNESDAY. THEN IN THE COLDER AIR
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY WIND GUSTS WILL BE GALE FORCE ACROSS
ALL THE WATERS AND REMAIN INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTS DIMINISHING
TOWARD FRIDAY MORNING...WITH GUSTS BELOW SMALL CRAFT LATER WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS WILL REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD TOTAL 1
TO 2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. MUCH OF THE RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MINOR URBAN AND
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...MPS
HYDROLOGY...JC







000
FXUS61 KBOX 210626
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
123 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

SCATTERED SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH SUN.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND BRINGING ANOTHER
PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. A MUCH STRONGER
STORM PASSING WEST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING HEAVY
RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS AND COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS TO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRY BUT VERY WINDY CONDITIONS
FOLLOW FOR CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

120 AM UPDATE...

LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO FALL ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MA AND
INTO RI VERY EARLY THIS MORNING.  COASTAL FRONT RUNS ROUGHLY FROM
NEAR NEW BEDFORD...TO TAUNTON AND NORTH OF MARSHFIELD THIS MORNING.
PTYPE MAINLY SNOW NORTHWEST OF THIS LINE AND RAIN SOUTHEAST OF THIS
LOCATION.

MEANWHILE...ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION IT WAS DRY EARLY THIS
MORNING OTHER THAN A FLURRIES.  HOWEVER...APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE ACROSS CT LATER THIS MORNING.  THIS WILL RESULT IN ENOUGH
FORCING FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO OVERSPREAD NORTHERN CT AND
INTO MUCH OF SOUTHERN MA.  SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THIS MORNING SHOULD
RANGE FROM A COATING TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION.  WE DID ISSUE A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO HIGHLIGHT THE CONCERN FOR SLIPPERY
TRAVEL.  BULK OF THE ACTION WILL BE SOUTH OF THE PIKE...WHERE BETTER
FORCING RESIDES.  HOWEVER...STILL COULD SEE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WITH
ACCUMS GENERALLY A DUSTING TO LESS THAN AN INCH ACROSS NORTHERN MA.

PTYPE SHOULD REMAIN WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF
PLYMOUTH COUNTY AND ONTO THE CAPE/ISLANDS THIS MORNING...WITH MAINLY
SNOW SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING HOURS...THEN TAPER
OFF AS INVERTED TROUGH PULLS AWAY FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN.  MOST LIKELY AREAS FOR CONTINUING
SHOWERS WILL BE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EAST COAST OF MASSACHUSETTS.

AS THE DAY GOES ON...EXPECT A SLOW DRYING TREND AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION.  CLOUDS WILL STICK AROUND WITH TEMPS
GENERALLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BIG PICTURE... SHORTWAVE ENTERING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST CROSSES THE
ROCKIES OVER THE WEEKEND DRIVEN BY A 160-KNOT JET.  THIS DIGS A
SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS MONDAY-TUESDAY WHILE PACIFIC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. THIS IN TURN WILL ALLOW AN
UPPER RIDGE TO BUILD ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST AND SLOWLY SHIFT EAST
OF THE COAST.  THE JET ENERGY WORKS ITS WAY AROUND THE BASE OF THE
PLAINS TROUGH AND MOVES UP THE APPALACHANS MIDWEEK.  THIS SUPPORTS A
TRANSITION OF THE TROUGH TO NEGATIVE TILT AND SLOWER MOVEMENT...WITH
WARM MOIST AIR FOR THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE TROUGH AXIS SWINGS OVER
NEW ENGLAND CHRISTMAS DAY FOLLOWED BY A WEAK RIDGE. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE MOVES ASHORE FROM THE PACIFIC MIDWEEK AND MOVES ACROSS THE
PLAINS BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND APPROACHES THE NORTHEAST USA
SATURDAY.

THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN DETAILS AMONG THE LONG RANGE MODELS...BUT
ALL SHOW A SIMILAR SCENARIO BOTH FOR THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM AND THE END
OF WEEK SYSTEM.  WE USED A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF.

THE DAILIES...

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY... HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NORTH OF THE REGION
BRINGING A MOIST EAST FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. UPPER
PATTERN SHOWS WEAK RIDGING AS THE PLAINS TROUGH DIGS...BUT SURFACE
FIELDS SUGGEST A LINGERING INVERTED TROUGH ALONG OR JUST OFFSHORE.
THIS SHOULD MAINTAIN CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS. COULD BE SOME DRIZZLE OR
FLURRIES NEAR THE EAST COAST BUT SUPPORTING LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS
LACKING SO PCPN SHOULD BE LIMITED.

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY... LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG A STALLED WARM
FRONT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. AS THE LOW DEVELOPS...IT BRINGS
AN INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT AGAINST HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
THROUGH THE MARITIMES. THE RESULT WILL BE A STRENGTHENING LOW
LEVEL EAST- SOUTHEAST JET. THIS WILL INCREASE THE MOIST INFLOW
OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ALSO...AS THE JET CONVERGES ON THE
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH IT WILL GENERATE INCREASED LOW LEVEL LIFT
AND INCREASE THE CHANCE OF PCPN. WE WILL HAVE CLOUDS AND CHANCE
POPS. TEMPS IN NORTHWEST MASS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH SO THAT THERE
MAY BE A MIX OF PCPN TYPES DURING THE MORNING.

TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY... PLAINS UPPER TROUGH DIGS DEEPER AND MOVES
EAST...PUSHING THE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR EAST. ALSO...THE STRONG UPPER
SOUTHWEST JET MOVES UP OVER THE EASTERN USA. THIS SETUP WILL TAKE
THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW UP THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
SECONDARY LOWS FORMING ON THE SYSTEM COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. A SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL JET
WILL MOVE UP THE ATLANTIC COAST ON WEDNESDAY AND OVER THE TOP OF THE
EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW AT THE SURFACE. THE RESULT WILL BE PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL LIFT THE GENERATE PCPN.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO EXCEED 1.5 INCHES...WHICH
IS 3 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR DECEMBER.  THIS MEANS A LOT OF
WATER AVAILABLE AS PCPN. TEMPERATURE PROFILES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING
SO PTYPE SHOULD BE RAIN. MODEL QPF SHOWS POTENTIAL RAINFALL OF OVER
2 INCHES. THIS WOULD SUGGEST POTENTIAL URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING
ISSUES WEDNESDAY.

STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE ECMWF SHOWS EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS 30-35 KNOTS ALONG HE
EAST MASS COAST AT 1000 MB. THEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT WINDS AT 925 MB
INCREASE TO 60-75 KNOTS AND MOVE ACROSS COASTAL RI AND SOUTHEAST
MASS. STRONG DOWNPOURS MAY OVERCOME THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION AND
BRING STRONG GUSTS OF AT LEAST 30-40 KNOTS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
SOUTH COAST. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED IN SOME AREAS.

MAINTAINED A LIMITED MENTION OF THUNDER...AS CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS
ARE MARGINAL...SI VALUES WILL BE JUST ABOVE ZERO AND K INDEX WILL BE
IN THE LOW 30S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

UPPER LOW WILL SWING THE SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO WEST AND PCPN
SHOULD COME TO AN END AROUND THE TIME THAT SANTA ARRIVES.

CHRISTMAS DAY... WEST WINDS WILL BRING A DRYING OF THE AIRMASS
DURING THE DAY. SO THE TREND SHOULD BE TO AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING.
SUFFICIENT COLD ADVECTION AT ALL LEVELS THURSDAY WILL ALLOW SOME
MIXING.  WINDS IN THE SFC-850 MB LAYER WILL BE 30-40 KNOTS AND
POSSIBLY A LITTLE HIGHER...WHICH WOULD REQUIRE A WIND ADVISORY FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY
AND BRING A SUNNY DAY. THE NEXT PACIFIC SHORTWAVE APPROACHES
SATURDAY AND SHOULD BRING INCREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST ALONG
WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND AT
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS
SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE WITH BORDERLINE VFR TO MARGINAL MVFR CIGS
NORTH OF THE PIKE THROUGH TONIGHT.  AN AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL
EXPAND MAINLY ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF THE PIKE THIS MORNING...BUT A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN MA.  VSBYS MAY BRIEFLY
DROP TO IFR LEVELS IN NORTHERN CT/RI/SE MA.  PTYPE WILL BE RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF PLYMOUTH COUNTY AND ONTO THE CAPE/ISLANDS WITH
SNOW SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST.  BULK OF PRECIP THIS MORNING...BUT A
FEW LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  A FEW SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
BUT BULK OF ACTIVITY SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS THIS
MORNING MAY DROP A COATING TO PERHAPS UP TO AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW.
MVFR CONDITIONS DOMINATE TODAY....BUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE

MONDAY...MVFR CIGS CONTINUE IN RI/EASTERN MASS IN MARINE EAST FLOW.
VFR IN THE WEST.

TUESDAY...VFR WITH SCATTERED MVFR IN ANY RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS LOWERING TO IFR IN RAIN/HEAVY RAIN. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EAST-SOUTHEAST
SURFACE WINDS MAY GUST TO 35 KNOTS ALONG THE EAST MASSACHUSETTS
COAST. WINDS AT 2000 FEET AGL WILL REACH 50-60 KNOTS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY NIGHT CREATING LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONCERNS.

CHRISTMAS DAY...WEST WIND GUSTING 30-40 KNOTS. CONDITIONS IMPROVING
TO VFR AS THE WIND BRINGS IN COOLER DRIER AIR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS QUEBEC WILL RESULT IN
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS WITH SEAS BETWEEN 2 AND 4 FEET ARE
EXPECTED FOR MOST WATERS...SO NO HEADLINES PLANNED.

THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY THAT A BRIEF SURGE OF NORTHEAST WIND
GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS WITH MARGINAL 5 FOOT SEAS COULD AFFECT OUR
NORTHERN WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUN MORNING...BUT NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO ISSUE ANY HEADLINES AT THIS POINT.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING AROUND 15
KNOTS OR LESS.  SEAS WILL HOLD AROUND 3-4 FEET.

TUESDAY... INCREASING EAST WINDS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5-6 FEET ON THE EXPOSED WATERS.  A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

WEDNESDAY...RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES PRODUCING POOR VISIBILITY.
INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS 20-25 SUSTAINED AND 40 KNOT GUSTS.  WINDS
SHOULD SHIFT TO SOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SOUTHWEST TOWARD THURSDAY
MORNING. RAIN WILL TAPER OFF WITH THE WIND SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST. SEAS
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD WITH 5-10 FEET HEIGHTS ON THE EXPOSED WATERS.
A GALE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

CHRISTMAS DAY... WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST 35-40
KNOTS...SO A GALE WARNING MAY CONTINUE TO BE NEEDED. SEAS OF 10-15
FEET ARE POSSIBLE ON THE EXPOSED WATERS...AND 5 FEET IS POSSIBLE ON
SOME OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL OCCUR
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. BREAKING IT DOWN...ON TUESDAY HIGH TIDE
AT BOSTON WILL BE 11.6 FT. THERE WILL BE EAST WINDS DURING THIS
HIGH TIDE ALLOWING FOR MINOR SPLASHOVER ALONG THE MASS COAST. IF
WIND GUSTS INCREASE THEN COULD POSSIBLE SEE MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING.

ON WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL SWITCH TO A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DURING
THE DAY AND INCREASE QUICKLY DUE TO THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE IN BOSTON IS 11.7 FT...AND AN
APPRECIABLE EAST OR SOUTHEAST WIND SHOULD PUSH LEVELS HIGHER THAN ON
TUESDAY.  THIS WOULD PROBABLY BE THE BEST CHANCE OF MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING ALONG THE EAST COAST.

THE WEDNESDAY EVENING HIGH TIDE WILL BE A LITTLE LOWER...BUT THE
WIND BECOMES SOUTH WITH 50-60 KNOTS AT 2000 FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE
AVAILABLE TO BE BROUGHT DOWN IN GUSTS. HIGH TIDE IN PROVIDENCE WILL
BE 5.2 FT. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING COULD OCCUR ALONG THE SOUTH
COASTS OF RI AND MASS...AND COULD BE CHANNELED IN NORTH-SOUTH AXIS
BAYS SUCH AS NARRAGANSETT BAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/RLG
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...FRANK/WTB
MARINE...WTB/RLG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...STAFF



000
FXUS61 KALY 210545
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1245 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO
TOMORROW...WHILE WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASS SOUTH OF THE
REGION. ONE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME FLURRIES OR
LIGHT SNOW TO THE TACONICS AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING.  UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH A PERIOD OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG
WINDS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AREA RADARS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING NO PRECIPITATION OVER
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT SOME FLOW IN UPPER AIR DATA AND RADAR
DATA SUGGESTING SOME MOISTURE COULD STILL BUILD WEST INTO THE
BERKSHIRES TOWARD SUNRISE. COVERAGE SHOULD BE ISOLATED TO
MAYBE BRIEFLY SCATTERED BUT TIMING LOOKS LATER...SO ADJUSTED
CHANCES AND TIMING FOR SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THIS MORNING. ANY
FLURRY OR SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD NOT BUILD INTO EASTERN
NY...BUT WILL WATCH TRENDS TO BE SURE. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER THROUGH THIS MORNING AS WELL...AS
CLOUDY SKY SHOULD PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING MUCH THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LINGERING SNOW WILL END ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD
HILLS BY MID DAY SUNDAY. ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE VERY LIGHT WITH
A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH UP TO AN INCH TOTAL. THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY IS EXPECTED TO BE CLOUDY ACROSS THE FA AS LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS
REMAIN IN PLACE TRAPPING MOISTURE BENEATH THEM. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 30S
SOUTHEAST.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
AS MOISTURE STARTS TO LIFT NORTHWARD FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
ON MONDAY AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. WHILE IT WILL BE DRY...CLOUDS WILL BE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S AND
HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE 30S.

ON MONDAY NIGHT MOISTURE STARTS TO OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA AS
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA WITH
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST.
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FA WITH A PLETHORA OF
PCPN TYPES MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA WITH
MAINLY SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA. PCPN SHOULD START
AS SNOW IN ALL AREAS BEFORE THE TRANSITION OCCURS DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA.
PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT SOME LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET MIXING IN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FA. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE TRICKY WITH NOT MUCH OF A DROP FROM
DAYTIME HIGHS ON MONDAY. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE MID
20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...PUNCTUATED BY A STRONG STORM SYSTEM TRACKING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE MAIN STORM
SYSTEM...A PERSISTENT MOIST FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC AND OVERRUNNING
WILL ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TUE AND TUE
NT. A SURGE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF A LEAD UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE
SHOULD ALLOW FOR A GREATER AREAL COVERAGE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION FOR
TUESDAY...ESP IN THE MORNING. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THAT THE
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION WOULD BE LIGHT SNOW OR A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF
SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO MAINLY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE BY LATE TUESDAY IN
MOST AREAS. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING
RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD LINGER INTO LATE TUE OR TUE EVE
ACROSS SOME SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE LAKE GEORGE REGION AND SOUTHERN
VT...AND POSSIBLY EASTERN BERKSHIRE CO. EXPECT TEMPS TO SLOWLY RISE
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S BY LATE TUESDAY. FOR TUE NT...MOST TEMPS
SHOULD HOLD NEARLY STEADY IN THE 30S.

THE MAIN STORM SHOULD IMPACT THE REGION WED INTO WED NT...ALTHOUGH
TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN THE LONG TERM GUIDANCE...AND THE
HANDLING OF POTENTIAL SFC WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG A COLD/OCCLUDED
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A NARROW COLD FRONTAL RAIN BAND
WILL LIKELY IMMEDIATELY PRECEDE/ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...AND COULD EVEN
CONTAIN SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER. MOST LONG TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT THIS FRONT PASSES THROUGH BETWEEN 00Z-06Z/THU. THE 12Z/20 ECMWF
SEEMS TO BE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. IN FACT...IT ACTUALLY ALLOWS COLDER AIR TO MOVE INTO
PORTIONS OF THE REGION AS THE TRAILING STRATIFORM PORTION OF THE
NARROW COLD FRONTAL BAND PASSES THROUGH...WITH SOME SUGGESTION OF
PRECIP ENDING AS SNOW...AT LEAST ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE
GFS/GEFS ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND LESS EMPHATIC WITH WAVE
DEVELOPMENT AND ANY SNOW/MIXED PRECIP. AT THIS TIME...HAVE INDICATED
SOME TRANSITION LATE AT NIGHT TO RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN VALLEYS...AND
MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

RAINFALL COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY WED-WED NT...WITH TOTAL QPF RANGING
FROM 0.75-1.5 INCHES...ALTHOUGH HIGHER AMTS WOULD BE POSSIBLE...ESP
SHOULD ANY WAVE DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND SLOW DOWN THE FORWARD
MOTION OF ANY FRONTAL RAIN BAND. THIS HEAVY RAINFALL...COMBINED WITH
SNOWMELT DUE TO STRONG WINDS AND MILD TEMPERATURES/HIGH
DEWPOINTS...COULD LEAD TO SOME HYDROLOGIC ISSUES INCLUDING MINOR
FLOODING. SEE THE HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS.

WINDS WILL ALSO BE QUITE STRONG ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS/CATSKILLS...AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WHERE GUSTS OF
30-40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR EVEN HIGHER
GUSTS. IN VALLEYS...BOUNDARY LAYER STABILITY MAY LIMIT HOW MUCH WIND
REACHES THE SURFACE...BUT WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO ASSESS THIS CLOSER
TO THE EVENT. SOME STRONGER GUSTS COULD ALSO OCCUR WITHIN ANY TALLER
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS AHEAD OF AND WITH THE ACTUAL FRONT AS WELL. MAX
TEMPS ON WED WILL BE TRICKY...AS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT RAPID
WARMING WELL INTO THE 50S COULD OCCUR AS A WARM FRONT TRANSLATES
NORTHWARD. THIS POTENTIAL WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT. FOR WED NT/THU AM...TEMPS SHOULD EVENTUALLY FALL
BACK INTO THE 30S IN VALLEYS...AND POSSIBLY SOME UPPER 20S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

IN THE WAKE OF THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM...WINDY AND MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR THURSDAY...WITH SNOW SHOWERS PREVALENT
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90.
WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AS WELL. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH DAYTIME MAXES REACHING THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

RISING HEIGHTS IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
DECREASING TREND IN AREAL COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR THU NT AND
ESP FRI. THU NT/FRI AM MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 20S TO AROUND
30...WITH MAX TEMPS FRI MAINLY IN THE LOWER 40S IN VALLEYS AND 30S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS FOR FRI NT/SAT AM
FALLING INTO THE 20S AND LOWER 30S. AND ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM COULD
BRING SOME RAIN OR SNOW TO THE REGION BY NEXT WEEKEND...WITH MAX
TEMPS REACHING 35-40 IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 30S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS SOUTHEAST QUEBEC
AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

SOLID BATCH OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...WITH CIGS
GENERALLY EITHER MVFR OR VFR. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES BEFORE SUNRISE...CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR
RANGE FOR ALL THE TERMINALS...WITH A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW
DEVELOPING FOR MAINLY KPSF AND POSSIBLY KPOU BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z.
BEST CHANCE FOR OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE AT HIGHER
ELEVATION SITE KPSF...WHERE A TEMPO FOR IFR IN -SN IS MENTIONED
BETWEEN 09Z-12Z. AT THIS TIME ONLY FLURRIES EXPECTED AT KPOU WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING. LESS MOISTURE ANTICIPATED FARTHER
NORTH AROUND KALB/KGFL...SO WILL ONLY MENTION VCSH AT THESE SITES.
ANY -SN WILL END BY AROUND 18Z...AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST. CIGS IN MVFR/VFR RANGE WILL LIKELY REMAIN THROUGH THE
REST OF THE PERIOD ENDING 06Z MONDAY.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY LESS THAN 5 KTS THROUGH PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHSN...FZRA...SLEET.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA...SN...FZRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...RA.
CHRISTMAS DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 0.75 INCH TO 1.5 INCHES ARE LIKELY ALONG WITH
SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT WHICH RAISES THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING
AND SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES OF LARGER STEM RIVERS. MMEFS
GUIDANCE POINTS TO MANY POINTS AT LEAST REACHING ACTION STAGE
AND HAS GVVN6 HAVING A HIGH PROBABILITY FROM THE GEFS AND NAEFS
GUIDANCE OF REACHING MINOR FLOOD STAGE ON CHRISTMAS DAY. TOO EARLY
TO ISSUE ANY FLOOD WATCHES...HOWEVER WILL MENTION IN THE HWO AT
THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/WASULA
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...11







000
FXUS61 KALY 210545
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1245 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO
TOMORROW...WHILE WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASS SOUTH OF THE
REGION. ONE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME FLURRIES OR
LIGHT SNOW TO THE TACONICS AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING.  UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH A PERIOD OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG
WINDS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AREA RADARS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING NO PRECIPITATION OVER
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT SOME FLOW IN UPPER AIR DATA AND RADAR
DATA SUGGESTING SOME MOISTURE COULD STILL BUILD WEST INTO THE
BERKSHIRES TOWARD SUNRISE. COVERAGE SHOULD BE ISOLATED TO
MAYBE BRIEFLY SCATTERED BUT TIMING LOOKS LATER...SO ADJUSTED
CHANCES AND TIMING FOR SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THIS MORNING. ANY
FLURRY OR SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD NOT BUILD INTO EASTERN
NY...BUT WILL WATCH TRENDS TO BE SURE. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER THROUGH THIS MORNING AS WELL...AS
CLOUDY SKY SHOULD PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING MUCH THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LINGERING SNOW WILL END ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD
HILLS BY MID DAY SUNDAY. ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE VERY LIGHT WITH
A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH UP TO AN INCH TOTAL. THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY IS EXPECTED TO BE CLOUDY ACROSS THE FA AS LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS
REMAIN IN PLACE TRAPPING MOISTURE BENEATH THEM. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 30S
SOUTHEAST.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
AS MOISTURE STARTS TO LIFT NORTHWARD FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
ON MONDAY AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. WHILE IT WILL BE DRY...CLOUDS WILL BE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S AND
HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE 30S.

ON MONDAY NIGHT MOISTURE STARTS TO OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA AS
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA WITH
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST.
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FA WITH A PLETHORA OF
PCPN TYPES MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA WITH
MAINLY SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA. PCPN SHOULD START
AS SNOW IN ALL AREAS BEFORE THE TRANSITION OCCURS DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA.
PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT SOME LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET MIXING IN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FA. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE TRICKY WITH NOT MUCH OF A DROP FROM
DAYTIME HIGHS ON MONDAY. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE MID
20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...PUNCTUATED BY A STRONG STORM SYSTEM TRACKING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE MAIN STORM
SYSTEM...A PERSISTENT MOIST FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC AND OVERRUNNING
WILL ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TUE AND TUE
NT. A SURGE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF A LEAD UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE
SHOULD ALLOW FOR A GREATER AREAL COVERAGE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION FOR
TUESDAY...ESP IN THE MORNING. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THAT THE
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION WOULD BE LIGHT SNOW OR A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF
SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO MAINLY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE BY LATE TUESDAY IN
MOST AREAS. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING
RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD LINGER INTO LATE TUE OR TUE EVE
ACROSS SOME SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE LAKE GEORGE REGION AND SOUTHERN
VT...AND POSSIBLY EASTERN BERKSHIRE CO. EXPECT TEMPS TO SLOWLY RISE
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S BY LATE TUESDAY. FOR TUE NT...MOST TEMPS
SHOULD HOLD NEARLY STEADY IN THE 30S.

THE MAIN STORM SHOULD IMPACT THE REGION WED INTO WED NT...ALTHOUGH
TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN THE LONG TERM GUIDANCE...AND THE
HANDLING OF POTENTIAL SFC WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG A COLD/OCCLUDED
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A NARROW COLD FRONTAL RAIN BAND
WILL LIKELY IMMEDIATELY PRECEDE/ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...AND COULD EVEN
CONTAIN SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER. MOST LONG TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT THIS FRONT PASSES THROUGH BETWEEN 00Z-06Z/THU. THE 12Z/20 ECMWF
SEEMS TO BE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. IN FACT...IT ACTUALLY ALLOWS COLDER AIR TO MOVE INTO
PORTIONS OF THE REGION AS THE TRAILING STRATIFORM PORTION OF THE
NARROW COLD FRONTAL BAND PASSES THROUGH...WITH SOME SUGGESTION OF
PRECIP ENDING AS SNOW...AT LEAST ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE
GFS/GEFS ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND LESS EMPHATIC WITH WAVE
DEVELOPMENT AND ANY SNOW/MIXED PRECIP. AT THIS TIME...HAVE INDICATED
SOME TRANSITION LATE AT NIGHT TO RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN VALLEYS...AND
MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

RAINFALL COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY WED-WED NT...WITH TOTAL QPF RANGING
FROM 0.75-1.5 INCHES...ALTHOUGH HIGHER AMTS WOULD BE POSSIBLE...ESP
SHOULD ANY WAVE DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND SLOW DOWN THE FORWARD
MOTION OF ANY FRONTAL RAIN BAND. THIS HEAVY RAINFALL...COMBINED WITH
SNOWMELT DUE TO STRONG WINDS AND MILD TEMPERATURES/HIGH
DEWPOINTS...COULD LEAD TO SOME HYDROLOGIC ISSUES INCLUDING MINOR
FLOODING. SEE THE HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS.

WINDS WILL ALSO BE QUITE STRONG ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS/CATSKILLS...AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WHERE GUSTS OF
30-40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR EVEN HIGHER
GUSTS. IN VALLEYS...BOUNDARY LAYER STABILITY MAY LIMIT HOW MUCH WIND
REACHES THE SURFACE...BUT WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO ASSESS THIS CLOSER
TO THE EVENT. SOME STRONGER GUSTS COULD ALSO OCCUR WITHIN ANY TALLER
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS AHEAD OF AND WITH THE ACTUAL FRONT AS WELL. MAX
TEMPS ON WED WILL BE TRICKY...AS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT RAPID
WARMING WELL INTO THE 50S COULD OCCUR AS A WARM FRONT TRANSLATES
NORTHWARD. THIS POTENTIAL WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT. FOR WED NT/THU AM...TEMPS SHOULD EVENTUALLY FALL
BACK INTO THE 30S IN VALLEYS...AND POSSIBLY SOME UPPER 20S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

IN THE WAKE OF THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM...WINDY AND MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR THURSDAY...WITH SNOW SHOWERS PREVALENT
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90.
WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AS WELL. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH DAYTIME MAXES REACHING THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

RISING HEIGHTS IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
DECREASING TREND IN AREAL COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR THU NT AND
ESP FRI. THU NT/FRI AM MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 20S TO AROUND
30...WITH MAX TEMPS FRI MAINLY IN THE LOWER 40S IN VALLEYS AND 30S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS FOR FRI NT/SAT AM
FALLING INTO THE 20S AND LOWER 30S. AND ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM COULD
BRING SOME RAIN OR SNOW TO THE REGION BY NEXT WEEKEND...WITH MAX
TEMPS REACHING 35-40 IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 30S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS SOUTHEAST QUEBEC
AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

SOLID BATCH OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...WITH CIGS
GENERALLY EITHER MVFR OR VFR. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES BEFORE SUNRISE...CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR
RANGE FOR ALL THE TERMINALS...WITH A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW
DEVELOPING FOR MAINLY KPSF AND POSSIBLY KPOU BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z.
BEST CHANCE FOR OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE AT HIGHER
ELEVATION SITE KPSF...WHERE A TEMPO FOR IFR IN -SN IS MENTIONED
BETWEEN 09Z-12Z. AT THIS TIME ONLY FLURRIES EXPECTED AT KPOU WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING. LESS MOISTURE ANTICIPATED FARTHER
NORTH AROUND KALB/KGFL...SO WILL ONLY MENTION VCSH AT THESE SITES.
ANY -SN WILL END BY AROUND 18Z...AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST. CIGS IN MVFR/VFR RANGE WILL LIKELY REMAIN THROUGH THE
REST OF THE PERIOD ENDING 06Z MONDAY.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY LESS THAN 5 KTS THROUGH PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHSN...FZRA...SLEET.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA...SN...FZRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...RA.
CHRISTMAS DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 0.75 INCH TO 1.5 INCHES ARE LIKELY ALONG WITH
SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT WHICH RAISES THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING
AND SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES OF LARGER STEM RIVERS. MMEFS
GUIDANCE POINTS TO MANY POINTS AT LEAST REACHING ACTION STAGE
AND HAS GVVN6 HAVING A HIGH PROBABILITY FROM THE GEFS AND NAEFS
GUIDANCE OF REACHING MINOR FLOOD STAGE ON CHRISTMAS DAY. TOO EARLY
TO ISSUE ANY FLOOD WATCHES...HOWEVER WILL MENTION IN THE HWO AT
THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/WASULA
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...11








000
FXUS61 KOKX 210533
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1233 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY
STATIONARY TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES MONDAY
AFTERNOON...AND REMAINS SOUTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. A STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ENDING EARLY CHRISTMAS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL AFFECT THE
REGION NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
FLURRIES CONTINUE TO BE REPORTED OVER MAINLY EASTERN SECTIONS OF
THE CWA. 00Z SOUNDING ONLY SHOWS SATURATION TO ABOUT
-10C. HOWEVER...PROXIMITY TO THE OCEAN AND THEREFORE SEA SALT MAY
ACT AS ICE NUCLEI...WHICH CAN FORM ICE CRYSTALS AT WARMER TEMPS.
THE ONLY AREA THAT MIGHT SEE SOME RAIN MIX IN IS THE TWIN FORKS
OF LONG ISLAND AND PERHAPS PORTIONS OF NEW LONDON IN CT. MESOSCALE
MODELS SHOW THAT THE PRECIP SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...THOUGH THE
TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREAD SHOULD ONLY AMOUNT TO FLURRIES.
HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT A DUSTING OR COATING IN SOME
SPOTS...ESPECIALLY HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CT. OTHERWISE...FORECAST
IS ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO REFLECT CURRENT OBS.

CLOUD COVER AND A NLY FLOW TODAY KEPT TEMPS IN CHECK WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO THE LOWER 30S. THE LAST
DAY OF AUTUMN WILL FINISH AS ONE OF THE COLDEST. WINTER SOLSTICE
IS 603 PM SUNDAY EVENING.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY
THIS EVENING. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE COLD AIR SUPPLY WITH LIGHT
NLY WINDS. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO REMAIN TRAPPED BENEATH A
STRONG INVERSION AT APPROXIMATELY 900 MB. THUS...LOOKING AT
CONTINUED CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING
TOO FAST WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 20S WELL INLAND TO AROUND
30 AT THE COAST.

A SHORT WAVE TROF OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. THIS COUPLED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH LIFT FOR SNOW FLURRIES OR VERY
LIGHT SNOW...WITH THE BEST CHANCE BEING ACROSS EASTERN LI AND SE
CT. LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS FORECAST. THERE COULD ALSO
BE SOME RAIN MIXED IN AND/OR FREEZING RAIN WITH LACK A ICE
CRYSTALS IN THE CLOUD BEARING LAYER. OFTEN THOUGH ALONG THE
COAST...SEA SALT CAN LOWER THE ACTIVATION TEMP OF ICE NUCLEI.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
MORNING FLURRIES AND/OR SPRINKLES WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTIAL
CLEARING BY AFT AS SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN ALOFT. FAR
EASTERN LI AND SE CT COULD STAY MOSTLY CLOUDY ALL DAY DUE TO
DEEPER MOISTURE IN PLACE BENEATH AN INVERSION.

HIGHS ON SUN WILL APPROACH 40 ALONG THE COAST,,,BUT A FEW DEGREES
COOLER INLAND. THIS COULD VARY BASED ON THE EXTENT OF CLEARING.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...WITH LOW-LEVEL NLY WINDS GRADUALLY VEERING SUN NIGHT.
LOWS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE 20S SUN NIGHT...BUT THE EXTENT OF
THE CLOUD COVER REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AS THE FLOW BECOMES
MORE NE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST
MONDAY...AND WILL BE ON A DEVELOPING WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS LOW
REMAINS WEAK AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES SLOWLY NORTH MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. MEANWHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND INTO SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA WEAKENS. AT THE UPPER LEVELS A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH DEVELOPS
MONDAY FRONT CENTRAL CANADA INTO MEXICO WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENING IN THE UPPER MIDWEST. DURING WEDNESDAY THE TROUGH BECOMES
NEGATIVE WITH THE LOW MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE
WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. SO WITH WEAK LIFT DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT WILL
KEEP CHANCE POPS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY. GUIDANCE IS NO
LONGER DEEPENING WITH COASTAL LOW AND KEEP THE LOW OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AS THE PRIMARY LOW WITH THE NEGATIVE TROUGH. AS THE LOWS COLD
FRONT APPROACHES LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...A STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET TO NEAR 70 KT DEVELOPS. WITH A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW
LIMITING MIXING STRONG GUSTY WIND WILL BE LIMITED. HOWEVER THE LOW
LEVEL JET WILL PROVIDE STRONG LIFT DURING WEDNESDAY AND PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. WARMING OCCURS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH ALL LIQUID DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. BEFORE
THAT...MONDAY NIGHT...SOME LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE
INLAND...HOWEVER NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. THE THERMAL PROFILE
OF THE GFS WAS SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE 20/00Z ECMWF AND USED A
BLEND FOR P-TYPE.

AS THE PARENT LOW MOVES INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION AFTER 05Z INTO
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...PASSING JUST EAST OF THE AREA AROUND 12Z
THURSDAY. WITH TIMING CONSISTENCY HAVE KEPT THE LIKELY AND
CATEGORICAL POPS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

IN THE COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY AND WITH CYCLONIC WEST
TO NORTHWEST FLOW...STRONG AND GUSTY WIND WILL BE LIKELY. HAVE KEPT
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR NOW...HOWEVER GUSTS COULD BE CLOSE TO 45
KT AT TIMES THURSDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS. THEN FOR
NEXT WEEKEND ANOTHER INLAND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND AND DEPARTS EARLY IN THE WEEK.

ALL TERMINALS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KJFK IS MVFR...BUT THEY TOO
SHOULD BE DROPPING SHORTLY WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSING OF AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. LIGHT SNOW AND/OR FLURRIES POSSIBLE
MAINLY E OF NYC...BUT NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT VSBY AND CHC`S AREN/T
HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS.

MAY BE TOO OPTIMISTIC WITH CIGS IN NYC METRO AT 12Z AND MVFR COULD
LINGER INTO THE AFTN. THEN CONDS EXPECTED TO DROP BACK TO MVFR SUN
NIGHT. GUIDANCE IS AGREEMENT E OF NYC THAT MVFR CIGS REMAIN
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

LIGHT AND VRB WINDS OVERNIGHT...THEN LIGHT NLY WINDS COULD BACK
20-30 DEGREES MORE TO THE LEFT OF FORECAST DURING THE DAY
SUN...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VRB AGAIN SUN NIGHT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.SUN NIGHT...VFR.
.MON-MON NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN E FLOW. CHC OF RAIN.
.TUE-TUE NIGHT...IFR LIKELY IN RAIN...CIGS AND VSBYS. E WINDS
10-20 KT...BECOMING SE.
.WED...HIGH IMPACT EVENT POSSIBLE...IFR LIKELY WITH HEAVY RAIN AND
GUSTY SE WINDS 25KT+ SHIFTING TO SW LATE WED.
.THU...SUB VFR EARLY IN SHOWERS...THEN VFR WITH GUSTY WESTERLY
WINDS 20-25 KT G40 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECAST ON TRACK...NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING NORTH OF THE WATERS...CAN EXPECT NORTH
WINDS 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH SEAS GENERALLY
1-2 FT ON THE OCEAN OR 1 FT OR LESS ON ALL OTHER WATERS.

A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS...WITH SEAS ALSO
REMAINING BELOW 5 FT. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA
WATERS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW. SMALL CRAFT WIND
AND SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT...AND ACROSS ALL THE WATERS WEDNESDAY. THEN IN THE COLDER AIR
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY WIND GUSTS WILL BE GALE FORCE ACROSS
ALL THE WATERS AND REMAIN INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTS DIMINISHING
TOWARD FRIDAY MORNING...WITH GUSTS BELOW SMALL CRAFT LATER WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS WILL REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD TOTAL 1
TO 2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. MUCH OF THE RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MINOR URBAN AND
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MET/DW
NEAR TERM...MET/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...
MARINE...MET/DW
HYDROLOGY...MET/DW








000
FXUS61 KOKX 210533
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1233 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY
STATIONARY TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES MONDAY
AFTERNOON...AND REMAINS SOUTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. A STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ENDING EARLY CHRISTMAS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL AFFECT THE
REGION NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
FLURRIES CONTINUE TO BE REPORTED OVER MAINLY EASTERN SECTIONS OF
THE CWA. 00Z SOUNDING ONLY SHOWS SATURATION TO ABOUT
-10C. HOWEVER...PROXIMITY TO THE OCEAN AND THEREFORE SEA SALT MAY
ACT AS ICE NUCLEI...WHICH CAN FORM ICE CRYSTALS AT WARMER TEMPS.
THE ONLY AREA THAT MIGHT SEE SOME RAIN MIX IN IS THE TWIN FORKS
OF LONG ISLAND AND PERHAPS PORTIONS OF NEW LONDON IN CT. MESOSCALE
MODELS SHOW THAT THE PRECIP SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...THOUGH THE
TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREAD SHOULD ONLY AMOUNT TO FLURRIES.
HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT A DUSTING OR COATING IN SOME
SPOTS...ESPECIALLY HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CT. OTHERWISE...FORECAST
IS ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO REFLECT CURRENT OBS.

CLOUD COVER AND A NLY FLOW TODAY KEPT TEMPS IN CHECK WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO THE LOWER 30S. THE LAST
DAY OF AUTUMN WILL FINISH AS ONE OF THE COLDEST. WINTER SOLSTICE
IS 603 PM SUNDAY EVENING.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY
THIS EVENING. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE COLD AIR SUPPLY WITH LIGHT
NLY WINDS. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO REMAIN TRAPPED BENEATH A
STRONG INVERSION AT APPROXIMATELY 900 MB. THUS...LOOKING AT
CONTINUED CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING
TOO FAST WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 20S WELL INLAND TO AROUND
30 AT THE COAST.

A SHORT WAVE TROF OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. THIS COUPLED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH LIFT FOR SNOW FLURRIES OR VERY
LIGHT SNOW...WITH THE BEST CHANCE BEING ACROSS EASTERN LI AND SE
CT. LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS FORECAST. THERE COULD ALSO
BE SOME RAIN MIXED IN AND/OR FREEZING RAIN WITH LACK A ICE
CRYSTALS IN THE CLOUD BEARING LAYER. OFTEN THOUGH ALONG THE
COAST...SEA SALT CAN LOWER THE ACTIVATION TEMP OF ICE NUCLEI.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
MORNING FLURRIES AND/OR SPRINKLES WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTIAL
CLEARING BY AFT AS SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN ALOFT. FAR
EASTERN LI AND SE CT COULD STAY MOSTLY CLOUDY ALL DAY DUE TO
DEEPER MOISTURE IN PLACE BENEATH AN INVERSION.

HIGHS ON SUN WILL APPROACH 40 ALONG THE COAST,,,BUT A FEW DEGREES
COOLER INLAND. THIS COULD VARY BASED ON THE EXTENT OF CLEARING.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...WITH LOW-LEVEL NLY WINDS GRADUALLY VEERING SUN NIGHT.
LOWS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE 20S SUN NIGHT...BUT THE EXTENT OF
THE CLOUD COVER REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AS THE FLOW BECOMES
MORE NE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST
MONDAY...AND WILL BE ON A DEVELOPING WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS LOW
REMAINS WEAK AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES SLOWLY NORTH MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. MEANWHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND INTO SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA WEAKENS. AT THE UPPER LEVELS A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH DEVELOPS
MONDAY FRONT CENTRAL CANADA INTO MEXICO WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENING IN THE UPPER MIDWEST. DURING WEDNESDAY THE TROUGH BECOMES
NEGATIVE WITH THE LOW MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE
WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. SO WITH WEAK LIFT DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT WILL
KEEP CHANCE POPS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY. GUIDANCE IS NO
LONGER DEEPENING WITH COASTAL LOW AND KEEP THE LOW OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AS THE PRIMARY LOW WITH THE NEGATIVE TROUGH. AS THE LOWS COLD
FRONT APPROACHES LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...A STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET TO NEAR 70 KT DEVELOPS. WITH A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW
LIMITING MIXING STRONG GUSTY WIND WILL BE LIMITED. HOWEVER THE LOW
LEVEL JET WILL PROVIDE STRONG LIFT DURING WEDNESDAY AND PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. WARMING OCCURS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH ALL LIQUID DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. BEFORE
THAT...MONDAY NIGHT...SOME LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE
INLAND...HOWEVER NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. THE THERMAL PROFILE
OF THE GFS WAS SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE 20/00Z ECMWF AND USED A
BLEND FOR P-TYPE.

AS THE PARENT LOW MOVES INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION AFTER 05Z INTO
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...PASSING JUST EAST OF THE AREA AROUND 12Z
THURSDAY. WITH TIMING CONSISTENCY HAVE KEPT THE LIKELY AND
CATEGORICAL POPS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

IN THE COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY AND WITH CYCLONIC WEST
TO NORTHWEST FLOW...STRONG AND GUSTY WIND WILL BE LIKELY. HAVE KEPT
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR NOW...HOWEVER GUSTS COULD BE CLOSE TO 45
KT AT TIMES THURSDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS. THEN FOR
NEXT WEEKEND ANOTHER INLAND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND AND DEPARTS EARLY IN THE WEEK.

ALL TERMINALS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KJFK IS MVFR...BUT THEY TOO
SHOULD BE DROPPING SHORTLY WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSING OF AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. LIGHT SNOW AND/OR FLURRIES POSSIBLE
MAINLY E OF NYC...BUT NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT VSBY AND CHC`S AREN/T
HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS.

MAY BE TOO OPTIMISTIC WITH CIGS IN NYC METRO AT 12Z AND MVFR COULD
LINGER INTO THE AFTN. THEN CONDS EXPECTED TO DROP BACK TO MVFR SUN
NIGHT. GUIDANCE IS AGREEMENT E OF NYC THAT MVFR CIGS REMAIN
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

LIGHT AND VRB WINDS OVERNIGHT...THEN LIGHT NLY WINDS COULD BACK
20-30 DEGREES MORE TO THE LEFT OF FORECAST DURING THE DAY
SUN...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VRB AGAIN SUN NIGHT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.SUN NIGHT...VFR.
.MON-MON NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN E FLOW. CHC OF RAIN.
.TUE-TUE NIGHT...IFR LIKELY IN RAIN...CIGS AND VSBYS. E WINDS
10-20 KT...BECOMING SE.
.WED...HIGH IMPACT EVENT POSSIBLE...IFR LIKELY WITH HEAVY RAIN AND
GUSTY SE WINDS 25KT+ SHIFTING TO SW LATE WED.
.THU...SUB VFR EARLY IN SHOWERS...THEN VFR WITH GUSTY WESTERLY
WINDS 20-25 KT G40 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECAST ON TRACK...NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING NORTH OF THE WATERS...CAN EXPECT NORTH
WINDS 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH SEAS GENERALLY
1-2 FT ON THE OCEAN OR 1 FT OR LESS ON ALL OTHER WATERS.

A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS...WITH SEAS ALSO
REMAINING BELOW 5 FT. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA
WATERS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW. SMALL CRAFT WIND
AND SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT...AND ACROSS ALL THE WATERS WEDNESDAY. THEN IN THE COLDER AIR
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY WIND GUSTS WILL BE GALE FORCE ACROSS
ALL THE WATERS AND REMAIN INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTS DIMINISHING
TOWARD FRIDAY MORNING...WITH GUSTS BELOW SMALL CRAFT LATER WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS WILL REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD TOTAL 1
TO 2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. MUCH OF THE RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MINOR URBAN AND
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MET/DW
NEAR TERM...MET/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...
MARINE...MET/DW
HYDROLOGY...MET/DW









000
FXUS61 KALY 210513
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1213 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO
TOMORROW...WHILE WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASS SOUTH OF THE
REGION. ONE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME FLURRIES OR
LIGHT SNOW TO THE TACONICS AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING.  UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH A PERIOD OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG
WINDS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AREA RADARS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING NO PRECIPITATION OVER
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT SOME FLOW IN UPPER AIR DATA AND RADAR
DATA SUGGESTING SOME MOISTURE COULD STILL BUILD WEST INTO THE
BERKSHIRES TOWARD SUNRISE. COVERAGE SHOULD BE ISOLATED TO
MAYBE BRIEFLY SCATTERED BUT TIMING LOOKS LATER...SO ADJUSTED
CHANCES AND TIMING FOR SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THIS MORNING. ANY
FLURRY OR SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD NOT BUILD INTO EASTERN
NY...BUT WILL WATCH TRENDS TO BE SURE. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER THROUGH THIS MORNING AS WELL...AS
CLOUDY SKY SHOULD PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING MUCH THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LINGERING SNOW WILL END ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD
HILLS BY MID DAY SUNDAY. ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE VERY LIGHT WITH
A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH UP TO AN INCH TOTAL. THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY IS EXPECTED TO BE CLOUDY ACROSS THE FA AS LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS
REMAIN IN PLACE TRAPPING MOISTURE BENEATH THEM. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 30S
SOUTHEAST.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
AS MOISTURE STARTS TO LIFT NORTHWARD FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
ON MONDAY AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. WHILE IT WILL BE DRY...CLOUDS WILL BE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S AND
HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE 30S.

ON MONDAY NIGHT MOISTURE STARTS TO OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA AS
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA WITH
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST.
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FA WITH A PLETHORA OF
PCPN TYPES MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA WITH
MAINLY SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA. PCPN SHOULD START
AS SNOW IN ALL AREAS BEFORE THE TRANSITION OCCURS DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA.
PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT SOME LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET MIXING IN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FA. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE TRICKY WITH NOT MUCH OF A DROP FROM
DAYTIME HIGHS ON MONDAY. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE MID
20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...PUNCTUATED BY A STRONG STORM SYSTEM TRACKING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE MAIN STORM
SYSTEM...A PERSISTENT MOIST FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC AND OVERRUNNING
WILL ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TUE AND TUE
NT. A SURGE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF A LEAD UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE
SHOULD ALLOW FOR A GREATER AREAL COVERAGE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION FOR
TUESDAY...ESP IN THE MORNING. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THAT THE
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION WOULD BE LIGHT SNOW OR A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF
SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO MAINLY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE BY LATE TUESDAY IN
MOST AREAS. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING
RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD LINGER INTO LATE TUE OR TUE EVE
ACROSS SOME SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE LAKE GEORGE REGION AND SOUTHERN
VT...AND POSSIBLY EASTERN BERKSHIRE CO. EXPECT TEMPS TO SLOWLY RISE
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S BY LATE TUESDAY. FOR TUE NT...MOST TEMPS
SHOULD HOLD NEARLY STEADY IN THE 30S.

THE MAIN STORM SHOULD IMPACT THE REGION WED INTO WED NT...ALTHOUGH
TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN THE LONG TERM GUIDANCE...AND THE
HANDLING OF POTENTIAL SFC WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG A COLD/OCCLUDED
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A NARROW COLD FRONTAL RAIN BAND
WILL LIKELY IMMEDIATELY PRECEDE/ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...AND COULD EVEN
CONTAIN SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER. MOST LONG TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT THIS FRONT PASSES THROUGH BETWEEN 00Z-06Z/THU. THE 12Z/20 ECMWF
SEEMS TO BE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. IN FACT...IT ACTUALLY ALLOWS COLDER AIR TO MOVE INTO
PORTIONS OF THE REGION AS THE TRAILING STRATIFORM PORTION OF THE
NARROW COLD FRONTAL BAND PASSES THROUGH...WITH SOME SUGGESTION OF
PRECIP ENDING AS SNOW...AT LEAST ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE
GFS/GEFS ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND LESS EMPHATIC WITH WAVE
DEVELOPMENT AND ANY SNOW/MIXED PRECIP. AT THIS TIME...HAVE INDICATED
SOME TRANSITION LATE AT NIGHT TO RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN VALLEYS...AND
MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

RAINFALL COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY WED-WED NT...WITH TOTAL QPF RANGING
FROM 0.75-1.5 INCHES...ALTHOUGH HIGHER AMTS WOULD BE POSSIBLE...ESP
SHOULD ANY WAVE DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND SLOW DOWN THE FORWARD
MOTION OF ANY FRONTAL RAIN BAND. THIS HEAVY RAINFALL...COMBINED WITH
SNOWMELT DUE TO STRONG WINDS AND MILD TEMPERATURES/HIGH
DEWPOINTS...COULD LEAD TO SOME HYDROLOGIC ISSUES INCLUDING MINOR
FLOODING. SEE THE HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS.

WINDS WILL ALSO BE QUITE STRONG ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS/CATSKILLS...AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WHERE GUSTS OF
30-40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR EVEN HIGHER
GUSTS. IN VALLEYS...BOUNDARY LAYER STABILITY MAY LIMIT HOW MUCH WIND
REACHES THE SURFACE...BUT WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO ASSESS THIS CLOSER
TO THE EVENT. SOME STRONGER GUSTS COULD ALSO OCCUR WITHIN ANY TALLER
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS AHEAD OF AND WITH THE ACTUAL FRONT AS WELL. MAX
TEMPS ON WED WILL BE TRICKY...AS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT RAPID
WARMING WELL INTO THE 50S COULD OCCUR AS A WARM FRONT TRANSLATES
NORTHWARD. THIS POTENTIAL WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT. FOR WED NT/THU AM...TEMPS SHOULD EVENTUALLY FALL
BACK INTO THE 30S IN VALLEYS...AND POSSIBLY SOME UPPER 20S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

IN THE WAKE OF THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM...WINDY AND MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR THURSDAY...WITH SNOW SHOWERS PREVALENT
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90.
WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AS WELL. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH DAYTIME MAXES REACHING THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

RISING HEIGHTS IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
DECREASING TREND IN AREAL COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR THU NT AND
ESP FRI. THU NT/FRI AM MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 20S TO AROUND
30...WITH MAX TEMPS FRI MAINLY IN THE LOWER 40S IN VALLEYS AND 30S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS FOR FRI NT/SAT AM
FALLING INTO THE 20S AND LOWER 30S. AND ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM COULD
BRING SOME RAIN OR SNOW TO THE REGION BY NEXT WEEKEND...WITH MAX
TEMPS REACHING 35-40 IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 30S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT...AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO
SUNDAY LATE MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH
AND WEST LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO TOMORROW NIGHT.

EXPECT VFR/HIGH MVFR CONDITIONS FOR KALB/KGFL/KPOU TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS BEING NEAR KALB/KALB BTWN
10Z-18Z. SOME LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL
BE IN THE VICINITY OF KPOU BTWN 06Z-14Z. LATER TAFS MAY HAVE TO
ADD TEMPO GROUPS. THE BEST CHC OF LIGHT SNOW MOVING INTO A
TERMINAL SITE WILL BE AT KPSF. MVFR CIGS WILL LOWER POTENTIALLY TO
IFR LEVELS WITH VSBYS ALSO IN THE IFR RANGE BTWN 09Z-15Z. EXPECT
MVFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST AT KPSF INTO THE AFTERNOON.
KALB/KPOU/KGFL WILL TREND TO VFR CIGS AFTER 18Z/SUN.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT AT 4 KTS OR LESS. EXPECT LIGHT
N TO NW WINDS AT 4 KTS OR LESS LATE TOMORROW MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHSN...FZRA...SLEET.
TUESDAY:MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY
RA...SN...FZRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...RA.
CHRISTMAS DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 0.75 INCH TO 1.5 INCHES ARE LIKELY ALONG WITH
SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT WHICH RAISES THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING
AND SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES OF LARGER STEM RIVERS. MMEFS
GUIDANCE POINTS TO MANY POINTS AT LEAST REACHING ACTION STAGE
AND HAS GVVN6 HAVING A HIGH PROBABILITY FROM THE GEFS AND NAEFS
GUIDANCE OF REACHING MINOR FLOOD STAGE ON CHRISTMAS DAY. TOO EARLY
TO ISSUE ANY FLOOD WATCHES...HOWEVER WILL MENTION IN THE HWO AT
THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/WASULA
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...11








000
FXUS61 KALY 210513
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1213 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO
TOMORROW...WHILE WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASS SOUTH OF THE
REGION. ONE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME FLURRIES OR
LIGHT SNOW TO THE TACONICS AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING.  UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH A PERIOD OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG
WINDS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AREA RADARS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING NO PRECIPITATION OVER
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT SOME FLOW IN UPPER AIR DATA AND RADAR
DATA SUGGESTING SOME MOISTURE COULD STILL BUILD WEST INTO THE
BERKSHIRES TOWARD SUNRISE. COVERAGE SHOULD BE ISOLATED TO
MAYBE BRIEFLY SCATTERED BUT TIMING LOOKS LATER...SO ADJUSTED
CHANCES AND TIMING FOR SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THIS MORNING. ANY
FLURRY OR SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD NOT BUILD INTO EASTERN
NY...BUT WILL WATCH TRENDS TO BE SURE. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER THROUGH THIS MORNING AS WELL...AS
CLOUDY SKY SHOULD PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING MUCH THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LINGERING SNOW WILL END ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD
HILLS BY MID DAY SUNDAY. ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE VERY LIGHT WITH
A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH UP TO AN INCH TOTAL. THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY IS EXPECTED TO BE CLOUDY ACROSS THE FA AS LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS
REMAIN IN PLACE TRAPPING MOISTURE BENEATH THEM. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 30S
SOUTHEAST.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
AS MOISTURE STARTS TO LIFT NORTHWARD FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
ON MONDAY AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. WHILE IT WILL BE DRY...CLOUDS WILL BE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S AND
HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE 30S.

ON MONDAY NIGHT MOISTURE STARTS TO OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA AS
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA WITH
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST.
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FA WITH A PLETHORA OF
PCPN TYPES MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA WITH
MAINLY SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA. PCPN SHOULD START
AS SNOW IN ALL AREAS BEFORE THE TRANSITION OCCURS DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA.
PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT SOME LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET MIXING IN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FA. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE TRICKY WITH NOT MUCH OF A DROP FROM
DAYTIME HIGHS ON MONDAY. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE MID
20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...PUNCTUATED BY A STRONG STORM SYSTEM TRACKING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE MAIN STORM
SYSTEM...A PERSISTENT MOIST FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC AND OVERRUNNING
WILL ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TUE AND TUE
NT. A SURGE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF A LEAD UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE
SHOULD ALLOW FOR A GREATER AREAL COVERAGE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION FOR
TUESDAY...ESP IN THE MORNING. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THAT THE
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION WOULD BE LIGHT SNOW OR A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF
SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO MAINLY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE BY LATE TUESDAY IN
MOST AREAS. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING
RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD LINGER INTO LATE TUE OR TUE EVE
ACROSS SOME SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE LAKE GEORGE REGION AND SOUTHERN
VT...AND POSSIBLY EASTERN BERKSHIRE CO. EXPECT TEMPS TO SLOWLY RISE
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S BY LATE TUESDAY. FOR TUE NT...MOST TEMPS
SHOULD HOLD NEARLY STEADY IN THE 30S.

THE MAIN STORM SHOULD IMPACT THE REGION WED INTO WED NT...ALTHOUGH
TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN THE LONG TERM GUIDANCE...AND THE
HANDLING OF POTENTIAL SFC WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG A COLD/OCCLUDED
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A NARROW COLD FRONTAL RAIN BAND
WILL LIKELY IMMEDIATELY PRECEDE/ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...AND COULD EVEN
CONTAIN SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER. MOST LONG TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT THIS FRONT PASSES THROUGH BETWEEN 00Z-06Z/THU. THE 12Z/20 ECMWF
SEEMS TO BE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. IN FACT...IT ACTUALLY ALLOWS COLDER AIR TO MOVE INTO
PORTIONS OF THE REGION AS THE TRAILING STRATIFORM PORTION OF THE
NARROW COLD FRONTAL BAND PASSES THROUGH...WITH SOME SUGGESTION OF
PRECIP ENDING AS SNOW...AT LEAST ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE
GFS/GEFS ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND LESS EMPHATIC WITH WAVE
DEVELOPMENT AND ANY SNOW/MIXED PRECIP. AT THIS TIME...HAVE INDICATED
SOME TRANSITION LATE AT NIGHT TO RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN VALLEYS...AND
MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

RAINFALL COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY WED-WED NT...WITH TOTAL QPF RANGING
FROM 0.75-1.5 INCHES...ALTHOUGH HIGHER AMTS WOULD BE POSSIBLE...ESP
SHOULD ANY WAVE DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND SLOW DOWN THE FORWARD
MOTION OF ANY FRONTAL RAIN BAND. THIS HEAVY RAINFALL...COMBINED WITH
SNOWMELT DUE TO STRONG WINDS AND MILD TEMPERATURES/HIGH
DEWPOINTS...COULD LEAD TO SOME HYDROLOGIC ISSUES INCLUDING MINOR
FLOODING. SEE THE HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS.

WINDS WILL ALSO BE QUITE STRONG ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS/CATSKILLS...AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WHERE GUSTS OF
30-40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR EVEN HIGHER
GUSTS. IN VALLEYS...BOUNDARY LAYER STABILITY MAY LIMIT HOW MUCH WIND
REACHES THE SURFACE...BUT WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO ASSESS THIS CLOSER
TO THE EVENT. SOME STRONGER GUSTS COULD ALSO OCCUR WITHIN ANY TALLER
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS AHEAD OF AND WITH THE ACTUAL FRONT AS WELL. MAX
TEMPS ON WED WILL BE TRICKY...AS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT RAPID
WARMING WELL INTO THE 50S COULD OCCUR AS A WARM FRONT TRANSLATES
NORTHWARD. THIS POTENTIAL WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT. FOR WED NT/THU AM...TEMPS SHOULD EVENTUALLY FALL
BACK INTO THE 30S IN VALLEYS...AND POSSIBLY SOME UPPER 20S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

IN THE WAKE OF THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM...WINDY AND MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR THURSDAY...WITH SNOW SHOWERS PREVALENT
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90.
WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AS WELL. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH DAYTIME MAXES REACHING THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

RISING HEIGHTS IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
DECREASING TREND IN AREAL COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR THU NT AND
ESP FRI. THU NT/FRI AM MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 20S TO AROUND
30...WITH MAX TEMPS FRI MAINLY IN THE LOWER 40S IN VALLEYS AND 30S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS FOR FRI NT/SAT AM
FALLING INTO THE 20S AND LOWER 30S. AND ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM COULD
BRING SOME RAIN OR SNOW TO THE REGION BY NEXT WEEKEND...WITH MAX
TEMPS REACHING 35-40 IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 30S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT...AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO
SUNDAY LATE MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH
AND WEST LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO TOMORROW NIGHT.

EXPECT VFR/HIGH MVFR CONDITIONS FOR KALB/KGFL/KPOU TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS BEING NEAR KALB/KALB BTWN
10Z-18Z. SOME LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL
BE IN THE VICINITY OF KPOU BTWN 06Z-14Z. LATER TAFS MAY HAVE TO
ADD TEMPO GROUPS. THE BEST CHC OF LIGHT SNOW MOVING INTO A
TERMINAL SITE WILL BE AT KPSF. MVFR CIGS WILL LOWER POTENTIALLY TO
IFR LEVELS WITH VSBYS ALSO IN THE IFR RANGE BTWN 09Z-15Z. EXPECT
MVFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST AT KPSF INTO THE AFTERNOON.
KALB/KPOU/KGFL WILL TREND TO VFR CIGS AFTER 18Z/SUN.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT AT 4 KTS OR LESS. EXPECT LIGHT
N TO NW WINDS AT 4 KTS OR LESS LATE TOMORROW MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHSN...FZRA...SLEET.
TUESDAY:MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY
RA...SN...FZRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...RA.
CHRISTMAS DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 0.75 INCH TO 1.5 INCHES ARE LIKELY ALONG WITH
SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT WHICH RAISES THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING
AND SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES OF LARGER STEM RIVERS. MMEFS
GUIDANCE POINTS TO MANY POINTS AT LEAST REACHING ACTION STAGE
AND HAS GVVN6 HAVING A HIGH PROBABILITY FROM THE GEFS AND NAEFS
GUIDANCE OF REACHING MINOR FLOOD STAGE ON CHRISTMAS DAY. TOO EARLY
TO ISSUE ANY FLOOD WATCHES...HOWEVER WILL MENTION IN THE HWO AT
THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/WASULA
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...11








000
FXUS61 KALY 210513
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1213 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO
TOMORROW...WHILE WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASS SOUTH OF THE
REGION. ONE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME FLURRIES OR
LIGHT SNOW TO THE TACONICS AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING.  UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH A PERIOD OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG
WINDS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AREA RADARS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING NO PRECIPITATION OVER
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT SOME FLOW IN UPPER AIR DATA AND RADAR
DATA SUGGESTING SOME MOISTURE COULD STILL BUILD WEST INTO THE
BERKSHIRES TOWARD SUNRISE. COVERAGE SHOULD BE ISOLATED TO
MAYBE BRIEFLY SCATTERED BUT TIMING LOOKS LATER...SO ADJUSTED
CHANCES AND TIMING FOR SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THIS MORNING. ANY
FLURRY OR SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD NOT BUILD INTO EASTERN
NY...BUT WILL WATCH TRENDS TO BE SURE. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER THROUGH THIS MORNING AS WELL...AS
CLOUDY SKY SHOULD PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING MUCH THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LINGERING SNOW WILL END ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD
HILLS BY MID DAY SUNDAY. ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE VERY LIGHT WITH
A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH UP TO AN INCH TOTAL. THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY IS EXPECTED TO BE CLOUDY ACROSS THE FA AS LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS
REMAIN IN PLACE TRAPPING MOISTURE BENEATH THEM. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 30S
SOUTHEAST.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
AS MOISTURE STARTS TO LIFT NORTHWARD FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
ON MONDAY AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. WHILE IT WILL BE DRY...CLOUDS WILL BE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S AND
HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE 30S.

ON MONDAY NIGHT MOISTURE STARTS TO OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA AS
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA WITH
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST.
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FA WITH A PLETHORA OF
PCPN TYPES MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA WITH
MAINLY SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA. PCPN SHOULD START
AS SNOW IN ALL AREAS BEFORE THE TRANSITION OCCURS DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA.
PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT SOME LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET MIXING IN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FA. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE TRICKY WITH NOT MUCH OF A DROP FROM
DAYTIME HIGHS ON MONDAY. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE MID
20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...PUNCTUATED BY A STRONG STORM SYSTEM TRACKING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE MAIN STORM
SYSTEM...A PERSISTENT MOIST FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC AND OVERRUNNING
WILL ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TUE AND TUE
NT. A SURGE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF A LEAD UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE
SHOULD ALLOW FOR A GREATER AREAL COVERAGE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION FOR
TUESDAY...ESP IN THE MORNING. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THAT THE
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION WOULD BE LIGHT SNOW OR A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF
SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO MAINLY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE BY LATE TUESDAY IN
MOST AREAS. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING
RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD LINGER INTO LATE TUE OR TUE EVE
ACROSS SOME SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE LAKE GEORGE REGION AND SOUTHERN
VT...AND POSSIBLY EASTERN BERKSHIRE CO. EXPECT TEMPS TO SLOWLY RISE
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S BY LATE TUESDAY. FOR TUE NT...MOST TEMPS
SHOULD HOLD NEARLY STEADY IN THE 30S.

THE MAIN STORM SHOULD IMPACT THE REGION WED INTO WED NT...ALTHOUGH
TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN THE LONG TERM GUIDANCE...AND THE
HANDLING OF POTENTIAL SFC WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG A COLD/OCCLUDED
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A NARROW COLD FRONTAL RAIN BAND
WILL LIKELY IMMEDIATELY PRECEDE/ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...AND COULD EVEN
CONTAIN SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER. MOST LONG TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT THIS FRONT PASSES THROUGH BETWEEN 00Z-06Z/THU. THE 12Z/20 ECMWF
SEEMS TO BE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. IN FACT...IT ACTUALLY ALLOWS COLDER AIR TO MOVE INTO
PORTIONS OF THE REGION AS THE TRAILING STRATIFORM PORTION OF THE
NARROW COLD FRONTAL BAND PASSES THROUGH...WITH SOME SUGGESTION OF
PRECIP ENDING AS SNOW...AT LEAST ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE
GFS/GEFS ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND LESS EMPHATIC WITH WAVE
DEVELOPMENT AND ANY SNOW/MIXED PRECIP. AT THIS TIME...HAVE INDICATED
SOME TRANSITION LATE AT NIGHT TO RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN VALLEYS...AND
MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

RAINFALL COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY WED-WED NT...WITH TOTAL QPF RANGING
FROM 0.75-1.5 INCHES...ALTHOUGH HIGHER AMTS WOULD BE POSSIBLE...ESP
SHOULD ANY WAVE DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND SLOW DOWN THE FORWARD
MOTION OF ANY FRONTAL RAIN BAND. THIS HEAVY RAINFALL...COMBINED WITH
SNOWMELT DUE TO STRONG WINDS AND MILD TEMPERATURES/HIGH
DEWPOINTS...COULD LEAD TO SOME HYDROLOGIC ISSUES INCLUDING MINOR
FLOODING. SEE THE HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS.

WINDS WILL ALSO BE QUITE STRONG ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS/CATSKILLS...AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WHERE GUSTS OF
30-40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR EVEN HIGHER
GUSTS. IN VALLEYS...BOUNDARY LAYER STABILITY MAY LIMIT HOW MUCH WIND
REACHES THE SURFACE...BUT WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO ASSESS THIS CLOSER
TO THE EVENT. SOME STRONGER GUSTS COULD ALSO OCCUR WITHIN ANY TALLER
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS AHEAD OF AND WITH THE ACTUAL FRONT AS WELL. MAX
TEMPS ON WED WILL BE TRICKY...AS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT RAPID
WARMING WELL INTO THE 50S COULD OCCUR AS A WARM FRONT TRANSLATES
NORTHWARD. THIS POTENTIAL WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT. FOR WED NT/THU AM...TEMPS SHOULD EVENTUALLY FALL
BACK INTO THE 30S IN VALLEYS...AND POSSIBLY SOME UPPER 20S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

IN THE WAKE OF THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM...WINDY AND MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR THURSDAY...WITH SNOW SHOWERS PREVALENT
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90.
WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AS WELL. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH DAYTIME MAXES REACHING THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

RISING HEIGHTS IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
DECREASING TREND IN AREAL COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR THU NT AND
ESP FRI. THU NT/FRI AM MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 20S TO AROUND
30...WITH MAX TEMPS FRI MAINLY IN THE LOWER 40S IN VALLEYS AND 30S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS FOR FRI NT/SAT AM
FALLING INTO THE 20S AND LOWER 30S. AND ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM COULD
BRING SOME RAIN OR SNOW TO THE REGION BY NEXT WEEKEND...WITH MAX
TEMPS REACHING 35-40 IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 30S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT...AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO
SUNDAY LATE MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH
AND WEST LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO TOMORROW NIGHT.

EXPECT VFR/HIGH MVFR CONDITIONS FOR KALB/KGFL/KPOU TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS BEING NEAR KALB/KALB BTWN
10Z-18Z. SOME LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL
BE IN THE VICINITY OF KPOU BTWN 06Z-14Z. LATER TAFS MAY HAVE TO
ADD TEMPO GROUPS. THE BEST CHC OF LIGHT SNOW MOVING INTO A
TERMINAL SITE WILL BE AT KPSF. MVFR CIGS WILL LOWER POTENTIALLY TO
IFR LEVELS WITH VSBYS ALSO IN THE IFR RANGE BTWN 09Z-15Z. EXPECT
MVFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST AT KPSF INTO THE AFTERNOON.
KALB/KPOU/KGFL WILL TREND TO VFR CIGS AFTER 18Z/SUN.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT AT 4 KTS OR LESS. EXPECT LIGHT
N TO NW WINDS AT 4 KTS OR LESS LATE TOMORROW MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHSN...FZRA...SLEET.
TUESDAY:MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY
RA...SN...FZRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...RA.
CHRISTMAS DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 0.75 INCH TO 1.5 INCHES ARE LIKELY ALONG WITH
SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT WHICH RAISES THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING
AND SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES OF LARGER STEM RIVERS. MMEFS
GUIDANCE POINTS TO MANY POINTS AT LEAST REACHING ACTION STAGE
AND HAS GVVN6 HAVING A HIGH PROBABILITY FROM THE GEFS AND NAEFS
GUIDANCE OF REACHING MINOR FLOOD STAGE ON CHRISTMAS DAY. TOO EARLY
TO ISSUE ANY FLOOD WATCHES...HOWEVER WILL MENTION IN THE HWO AT
THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/WASULA
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...11








000
FXUS61 KALY 210513
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1213 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO
TOMORROW...WHILE WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASS SOUTH OF THE
REGION. ONE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME FLURRIES OR
LIGHT SNOW TO THE TACONICS AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING.  UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH A PERIOD OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG
WINDS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AREA RADARS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING NO PRECIPITATION OVER
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT SOME FLOW IN UPPER AIR DATA AND RADAR
DATA SUGGESTING SOME MOISTURE COULD STILL BUILD WEST INTO THE
BERKSHIRES TOWARD SUNRISE. COVERAGE SHOULD BE ISOLATED TO
MAYBE BRIEFLY SCATTERED BUT TIMING LOOKS LATER...SO ADJUSTED
CHANCES AND TIMING FOR SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THIS MORNING. ANY
FLURRY OR SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD NOT BUILD INTO EASTERN
NY...BUT WILL WATCH TRENDS TO BE SURE. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER THROUGH THIS MORNING AS WELL...AS
CLOUDY SKY SHOULD PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING MUCH THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LINGERING SNOW WILL END ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD
HILLS BY MID DAY SUNDAY. ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE VERY LIGHT WITH
A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH UP TO AN INCH TOTAL. THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY IS EXPECTED TO BE CLOUDY ACROSS THE FA AS LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS
REMAIN IN PLACE TRAPPING MOISTURE BENEATH THEM. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 30S
SOUTHEAST.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
AS MOISTURE STARTS TO LIFT NORTHWARD FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
ON MONDAY AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. WHILE IT WILL BE DRY...CLOUDS WILL BE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S AND
HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE 30S.

ON MONDAY NIGHT MOISTURE STARTS TO OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA AS
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA WITH
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST.
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FA WITH A PLETHORA OF
PCPN TYPES MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA WITH
MAINLY SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA. PCPN SHOULD START
AS SNOW IN ALL AREAS BEFORE THE TRANSITION OCCURS DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA.
PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT SOME LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET MIXING IN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FA. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE TRICKY WITH NOT MUCH OF A DROP FROM
DAYTIME HIGHS ON MONDAY. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE MID
20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...PUNCTUATED BY A STRONG STORM SYSTEM TRACKING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE MAIN STORM
SYSTEM...A PERSISTENT MOIST FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC AND OVERRUNNING
WILL ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TUE AND TUE
NT. A SURGE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF A LEAD UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE
SHOULD ALLOW FOR A GREATER AREAL COVERAGE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION FOR
TUESDAY...ESP IN THE MORNING. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THAT THE
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION WOULD BE LIGHT SNOW OR A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF
SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO MAINLY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE BY LATE TUESDAY IN
MOST AREAS. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING
RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD LINGER INTO LATE TUE OR TUE EVE
ACROSS SOME SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE LAKE GEORGE REGION AND SOUTHERN
VT...AND POSSIBLY EASTERN BERKSHIRE CO. EXPECT TEMPS TO SLOWLY RISE
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S BY LATE TUESDAY. FOR TUE NT...MOST TEMPS
SHOULD HOLD NEARLY STEADY IN THE 30S.

THE MAIN STORM SHOULD IMPACT THE REGION WED INTO WED NT...ALTHOUGH
TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN THE LONG TERM GUIDANCE...AND THE
HANDLING OF POTENTIAL SFC WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG A COLD/OCCLUDED
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A NARROW COLD FRONTAL RAIN BAND
WILL LIKELY IMMEDIATELY PRECEDE/ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...AND COULD EVEN
CONTAIN SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER. MOST LONG TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT THIS FRONT PASSES THROUGH BETWEEN 00Z-06Z/THU. THE 12Z/20 ECMWF
SEEMS TO BE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. IN FACT...IT ACTUALLY ALLOWS COLDER AIR TO MOVE INTO
PORTIONS OF THE REGION AS THE TRAILING STRATIFORM PORTION OF THE
NARROW COLD FRONTAL BAND PASSES THROUGH...WITH SOME SUGGESTION OF
PRECIP ENDING AS SNOW...AT LEAST ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE
GFS/GEFS ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND LESS EMPHATIC WITH WAVE
DEVELOPMENT AND ANY SNOW/MIXED PRECIP. AT THIS TIME...HAVE INDICATED
SOME TRANSITION LATE AT NIGHT TO RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN VALLEYS...AND
MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

RAINFALL COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY WED-WED NT...WITH TOTAL QPF RANGING
FROM 0.75-1.5 INCHES...ALTHOUGH HIGHER AMTS WOULD BE POSSIBLE...ESP
SHOULD ANY WAVE DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND SLOW DOWN THE FORWARD
MOTION OF ANY FRONTAL RAIN BAND. THIS HEAVY RAINFALL...COMBINED WITH
SNOWMELT DUE TO STRONG WINDS AND MILD TEMPERATURES/HIGH
DEWPOINTS...COULD LEAD TO SOME HYDROLOGIC ISSUES INCLUDING MINOR
FLOODING. SEE THE HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS.

WINDS WILL ALSO BE QUITE STRONG ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS/CATSKILLS...AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WHERE GUSTS OF
30-40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR EVEN HIGHER
GUSTS. IN VALLEYS...BOUNDARY LAYER STABILITY MAY LIMIT HOW MUCH WIND
REACHES THE SURFACE...BUT WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO ASSESS THIS CLOSER
TO THE EVENT. SOME STRONGER GUSTS COULD ALSO OCCUR WITHIN ANY TALLER
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS AHEAD OF AND WITH THE ACTUAL FRONT AS WELL. MAX
TEMPS ON WED WILL BE TRICKY...AS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT RAPID
WARMING WELL INTO THE 50S COULD OCCUR AS A WARM FRONT TRANSLATES
NORTHWARD. THIS POTENTIAL WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT. FOR WED NT/THU AM...TEMPS SHOULD EVENTUALLY FALL
BACK INTO THE 30S IN VALLEYS...AND POSSIBLY SOME UPPER 20S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

IN THE WAKE OF THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM...WINDY AND MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR THURSDAY...WITH SNOW SHOWERS PREVALENT
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90.
WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AS WELL. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH DAYTIME MAXES REACHING THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

RISING HEIGHTS IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
DECREASING TREND IN AREAL COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR THU NT AND
ESP FRI. THU NT/FRI AM MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 20S TO AROUND
30...WITH MAX TEMPS FRI MAINLY IN THE LOWER 40S IN VALLEYS AND 30S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS FOR FRI NT/SAT AM
FALLING INTO THE 20S AND LOWER 30S. AND ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM COULD
BRING SOME RAIN OR SNOW TO THE REGION BY NEXT WEEKEND...WITH MAX
TEMPS REACHING 35-40 IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 30S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT...AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO
SUNDAY LATE MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH
AND WEST LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO TOMORROW NIGHT.

EXPECT VFR/HIGH MVFR CONDITIONS FOR KALB/KGFL/KPOU TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS BEING NEAR KALB/KALB BTWN
10Z-18Z. SOME LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL
BE IN THE VICINITY OF KPOU BTWN 06Z-14Z. LATER TAFS MAY HAVE TO
ADD TEMPO GROUPS. THE BEST CHC OF LIGHT SNOW MOVING INTO A
TERMINAL SITE WILL BE AT KPSF. MVFR CIGS WILL LOWER POTENTIALLY TO
IFR LEVELS WITH VSBYS ALSO IN THE IFR RANGE BTWN 09Z-15Z. EXPECT
MVFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST AT KPSF INTO THE AFTERNOON.
KALB/KPOU/KGFL WILL TREND TO VFR CIGS AFTER 18Z/SUN.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT AT 4 KTS OR LESS. EXPECT LIGHT
N TO NW WINDS AT 4 KTS OR LESS LATE TOMORROW MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHSN...FZRA...SLEET.
TUESDAY:MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY
RA...SN...FZRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...RA.
CHRISTMAS DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 0.75 INCH TO 1.5 INCHES ARE LIKELY ALONG WITH
SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT WHICH RAISES THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING
AND SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES OF LARGER STEM RIVERS. MMEFS
GUIDANCE POINTS TO MANY POINTS AT LEAST REACHING ACTION STAGE
AND HAS GVVN6 HAVING A HIGH PROBABILITY FROM THE GEFS AND NAEFS
GUIDANCE OF REACHING MINOR FLOOD STAGE ON CHRISTMAS DAY. TOO EARLY
TO ISSUE ANY FLOOD WATCHES...HOWEVER WILL MENTION IN THE HWO AT
THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/WASULA
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...11








000
FXUS61 KALY 210249
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
949 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO
TOMORROW...WHILE WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASS SOUTH OF THE
REGION. ONE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME FLURRIES OR
LIGHT SNOW TO THE TACONICS AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING.  UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH A PERIOD OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG
WINDS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 949 PM EST...

CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW
PASSING OVER ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND. PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE LAKE GEORGE REGION...WHILE CLOUDY
OR MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS PERSIST FROM THE MOHAWK
VALLEY...CAPITAL REGION...AND SRN VT AND THE BERKSHIRES SOUTH. THE
LIGHT SNOW DUE TO THE VORTICITY ADVECTION MAY DEVELOP OVER NW
CT...AND THE SRN TACONICS SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WEAK
INVERTED SFC TROUGH DOWNSTREAM WILL DRAW IN SOME ATLANTIC MOISTURE AND
SPREAD IT NORTHWEST FROM SE NEW ENGLAND AND CAPE COD. THE LATEST
HIRES WRF LAYER COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY IMAGERY SHOWS SOME LIGHT SNOW
MOVING INTO THE WRN NEW ENGLAND CORRIDOR. WE KEPT SLIGHT AND LOW
CHC POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW IN HERE. MIN TEMPS HAD TO BE LOWERED OVER
THE LAKE GEORGE GLENS FALLS AREA TO MID TEENS...SINCE SOME MINS
HAVE BEEN REACHED ALREADY. THE CLOUDS FILLING IN SHOULD SLOW THE
DOWNWARD TREND AFTER MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO MID 20S OVER MOST OF THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LINGERING SNOW WILL END ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD
HILLS BY MID DAY SUNDAY. ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE VERY LIGHT WITH
A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH UP TO AN INCH TOTAL. THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY IS EXPECTED TO BE CLOUDY ACROSS THE FA AS LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS
REMAIN IN PLACE TRAPPING MOISTURE BENEATH THEM. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 30S
SOUTHEAST.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
AS MOISTURE STARTS TO LIFT NORTHWARD FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
ON MONDAY AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. WHILE IT WILL BE DRY...CLOUDS WILL BE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S AND
HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE 30S.

ON MONDAY NIGHT MOISTURE STARTS TO OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA AS
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA WITH
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST.
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FA WITH A PLETHORA OF
PCPN TYPES MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA WITH
MAINLY SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA. PCPN SHOULD START
AS SNOW IN ALL AREAS BEFORE THE TRANSITION OCCURS DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA.
PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT SOME LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET MIXING IN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FA. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE TRICKY WITH NOT MUCH OF A DROP FROM
DAYTIME HIGHS ON MONDAY. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE MID
20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...PUNCTUATED BY A STRONG STORM SYSTEM TRACKING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE MAIN STORM
SYSTEM...A PERSISTENT MOIST FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC AND OVERRUNNING
WILL ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TUE AND TUE
NT. A SURGE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF A LEAD UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE
SHOULD ALLOW FOR A GREATER AREAL COVERAGE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION FOR
TUESDAY...ESP IN THE MORNING. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THAT THE
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION WOULD BE LIGHT SNOW OR A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF
SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO MAINLY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE BY LATE TUESDAY IN
MOST AREAS. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING
RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD LINGER INTO LATE TUE OR TUE EVE
ACROSS SOME SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE LAKE GEORGE REGION AND SOUTHERN
VT...AND POSSIBLY EASTERN BERKSHIRE CO. EXPECT TEMPS TO SLOWLY RISE
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S BY LATE TUESDAY. FOR TUE NT...MOST TEMPS
SHOULD HOLD NEARLY STEADY IN THE 30S.

THE MAIN STORM SHOULD IMPACT THE REGION WED INTO WED NT...ALTHOUGH
TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN THE LONG TERM GUIDANCE...AND THE
HANDLING OF POTENTIAL SFC WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG A COLD/OCCLUDED
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A NARROW COLD FRONTAL RAIN BAND
WILL LIKELY IMMEDIATELY PRECEDE/ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...AND COULD EVEN
CONTAIN SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER. MOST LONG TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT THIS FRONT PASSES THROUGH BETWEEN 00Z-06Z/THU. THE 12Z/20 ECMWF
SEEMS TO BE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. IN FACT...IT ACTUALLY ALLOWS COLDER AIR TO MOVE INTO
PORTIONS OF THE REGION AS THE TRAILING STRATIFORM PORTION OF THE
NARROW COLD FRONTAL BAND PASSES THROUGH...WITH SOME SUGGESTION OF
PRECIP ENDING AS SNOW...AT LEAST ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE
GFS/GEFS ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND LESS EMPHATIC WITH WAVE
DEVELOPMENT AND ANY SNOW/MIXED PRECIP. AT THIS TIME...HAVE INDICATED
SOME TRANSITION LATE AT NIGHT TO RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN VALLEYS...AND
MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

RAINFALL COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY WED-WED NT...WITH TOTAL QPF RANGING
FROM 0.75-1.5 INCHES...ALTHOUGH HIGHER AMTS WOULD BE POSSIBLE...ESP
SHOULD ANY WAVE DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND SLOW DOWN THE FORWARD
MOTION OF ANY FRONTAL RAIN BAND. THIS HEAVY RAINFALL...COMBINED WITH
SNOWMELT DUE TO STRONG WINDS AND MILD TEMPERATURES/HIGH
DEWPOINTS...COULD LEAD TO SOME HYDROLOGIC ISSUES INCLUDING MINOR
FLOODING. SEE THE HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS.

WINDS WILL ALSO BE QUITE STRONG ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS/CATSKILLS...AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WHERE GUSTS OF
30-40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR EVEN HIGHER
GUSTS. IN VALLEYS...BOUNDARY LAYER STABILITY MAY LIMIT HOW MUCH WIND
REACHES THE SURFACE...BUT WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO ASSESS THIS CLOSER
TO THE EVENT. SOME STRONGER GUSTS COULD ALSO OCCUR WITHIN ANY TALLER
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS AHEAD OF AND WITH THE ACTUAL FRONT AS WELL. MAX
TEMPS ON WED WILL BE TRICKY...AS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT RAPID
WARMING WELL INTO THE 50S COULD OCCUR AS A WARM FRONT TRANSLATES
NORTHWARD. THIS POTENTIAL WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT. FOR WED NT/THU AM...TEMPS SHOULD EVENTUALLY FALL
BACK INTO THE 30S IN VALLEYS...AND POSSIBLY SOME UPPER 20S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

IN THE WAKE OF THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM...WINDY AND MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR THURSDAY...WITH SNOW SHOWERS PREVALENT
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90.
WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AS WELL. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH DAYTIME MAXES REACHING THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

RISING HEIGHTS IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
DECREASING TREND IN AREAL COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR THU NT AND
ESP FRI. THU NT/FRI AM MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 20S TO AROUND
30...WITH MAX TEMPS FRI MAINLY IN THE LOWER 40S IN VALLEYS AND 30S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS FOR FRI NT/SAT AM
FALLING INTO THE 20S AND LOWER 30S. AND ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM COULD
BRING SOME RAIN OR SNOW TO THE REGION BY NEXT WEEKEND...WITH MAX
TEMPS REACHING 35-40 IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 30S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT...AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO
SUNDAY LATE MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH
AND WEST LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO TOMORROW NIGHT.

EXPECT VFR/HIGH MVFR CONDITIONS FOR KALB/KGFL/KPOU TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS BEING NEAR KALB/KALB BTWN
10Z-18Z. SOME LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL
BE IN THE VICINITY OF KPOU BTWN 06Z-14Z. LATER TAFS MAY HAVE TO
ADD TEMPO GROUPS. THE BEST CHC OF LIGHT SNOW MOVING INTO A
TERMINAL SITE WILL BE AT KPSF. MVFR CIGS WILL LOWER POTENTIALLY TO
IFR LEVELS WITH VSBYS ALSO IN THE IFR RANGE BTWN 09Z-15Z. EXPECT
MVFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST AT KPSF INTO THE AFTERNOON.
KALB/KPOU/KGFL WILL TREND TO VFR CIGS AFTER 18Z/SUN.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT AT 4 KTS OR LESS. EXPECT LIGHT
N TO NW WINDS AT 4 KTS OR LESS LATE TOMORROW MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHSN...FZRA...SLEET.
TUESDAY:MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY
RA...SN...FZRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...RA.
CHRISTMAS DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 0.75 INCH TO 1.5 INCHES ARE LIKELY ALONG WITH
SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT WHICH RAISES THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING
AND SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES OF LARGER STEM RIVERS. MMEFS
GUIDANCE POINTS TO MANY POINTS AT LEAST REACHING ACTION STAGE
AND HAS GVVN6 HAVING A HIGH PROBABILITY FROM THE GEFS AND NAEFS
GUIDANCE OF REACHING MINOR FLOOD STAGE ON CHRISTMAS DAY. TOO EARLY
TO ISSUE ANY FLOOD WATCHES...HOWEVER WILL MENTION IN THE HWO AT
THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11









000
FXUS61 KALY 210249
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
949 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO
TOMORROW...WHILE WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASS SOUTH OF THE
REGION. ONE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME FLURRIES OR
LIGHT SNOW TO THE TACONICS AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING.  UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH A PERIOD OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG
WINDS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 949 PM EST...

CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW
PASSING OVER ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND. PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE LAKE GEORGE REGION...WHILE CLOUDY
OR MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS PERSIST FROM THE MOHAWK
VALLEY...CAPITAL REGION...AND SRN VT AND THE BERKSHIRES SOUTH. THE
LIGHT SNOW DUE TO THE VORTICITY ADVECTION MAY DEVELOP OVER NW
CT...AND THE SRN TACONICS SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WEAK
INVERTED SFC TROUGH DOWNSTREAM WILL DRAW IN SOME ATLANTIC MOISTURE AND
SPREAD IT NORTHWEST FROM SE NEW ENGLAND AND CAPE COD. THE LATEST
HIRES WRF LAYER COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY IMAGERY SHOWS SOME LIGHT SNOW
MOVING INTO THE WRN NEW ENGLAND CORRIDOR. WE KEPT SLIGHT AND LOW
CHC POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW IN HERE. MIN TEMPS HAD TO BE LOWERED OVER
THE LAKE GEORGE GLENS FALLS AREA TO MID TEENS...SINCE SOME MINS
HAVE BEEN REACHED ALREADY. THE CLOUDS FILLING IN SHOULD SLOW THE
DOWNWARD TREND AFTER MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO MID 20S OVER MOST OF THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LINGERING SNOW WILL END ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD
HILLS BY MID DAY SUNDAY. ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE VERY LIGHT WITH
A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH UP TO AN INCH TOTAL. THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY IS EXPECTED TO BE CLOUDY ACROSS THE FA AS LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS
REMAIN IN PLACE TRAPPING MOISTURE BENEATH THEM. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 30S
SOUTHEAST.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
AS MOISTURE STARTS TO LIFT NORTHWARD FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
ON MONDAY AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. WHILE IT WILL BE DRY...CLOUDS WILL BE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S AND
HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE 30S.

ON MONDAY NIGHT MOISTURE STARTS TO OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA AS
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA WITH
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST.
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FA WITH A PLETHORA OF
PCPN TYPES MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA WITH
MAINLY SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA. PCPN SHOULD START
AS SNOW IN ALL AREAS BEFORE THE TRANSITION OCCURS DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA.
PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT SOME LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET MIXING IN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FA. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE TRICKY WITH NOT MUCH OF A DROP FROM
DAYTIME HIGHS ON MONDAY. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE MID
20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...PUNCTUATED BY A STRONG STORM SYSTEM TRACKING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE MAIN STORM
SYSTEM...A PERSISTENT MOIST FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC AND OVERRUNNING
WILL ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TUE AND TUE
NT. A SURGE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF A LEAD UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE
SHOULD ALLOW FOR A GREATER AREAL COVERAGE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION FOR
TUESDAY...ESP IN THE MORNING. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THAT THE
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION WOULD BE LIGHT SNOW OR A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF
SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO MAINLY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE BY LATE TUESDAY IN
MOST AREAS. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING
RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD LINGER INTO LATE TUE OR TUE EVE
ACROSS SOME SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE LAKE GEORGE REGION AND SOUTHERN
VT...AND POSSIBLY EASTERN BERKSHIRE CO. EXPECT TEMPS TO SLOWLY RISE
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S BY LATE TUESDAY. FOR TUE NT...MOST TEMPS
SHOULD HOLD NEARLY STEADY IN THE 30S.

THE MAIN STORM SHOULD IMPACT THE REGION WED INTO WED NT...ALTHOUGH
TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN THE LONG TERM GUIDANCE...AND THE
HANDLING OF POTENTIAL SFC WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG A COLD/OCCLUDED
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A NARROW COLD FRONTAL RAIN BAND
WILL LIKELY IMMEDIATELY PRECEDE/ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...AND COULD EVEN
CONTAIN SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER. MOST LONG TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT THIS FRONT PASSES THROUGH BETWEEN 00Z-06Z/THU. THE 12Z/20 ECMWF
SEEMS TO BE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. IN FACT...IT ACTUALLY ALLOWS COLDER AIR TO MOVE INTO
PORTIONS OF THE REGION AS THE TRAILING STRATIFORM PORTION OF THE
NARROW COLD FRONTAL BAND PASSES THROUGH...WITH SOME SUGGESTION OF
PRECIP ENDING AS SNOW...AT LEAST ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE
GFS/GEFS ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND LESS EMPHATIC WITH WAVE
DEVELOPMENT AND ANY SNOW/MIXED PRECIP. AT THIS TIME...HAVE INDICATED
SOME TRANSITION LATE AT NIGHT TO RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN VALLEYS...AND
MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

RAINFALL COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY WED-WED NT...WITH TOTAL QPF RANGING
FROM 0.75-1.5 INCHES...ALTHOUGH HIGHER AMTS WOULD BE POSSIBLE...ESP
SHOULD ANY WAVE DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND SLOW DOWN THE FORWARD
MOTION OF ANY FRONTAL RAIN BAND. THIS HEAVY RAINFALL...COMBINED WITH
SNOWMELT DUE TO STRONG WINDS AND MILD TEMPERATURES/HIGH
DEWPOINTS...COULD LEAD TO SOME HYDROLOGIC ISSUES INCLUDING MINOR
FLOODING. SEE THE HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS.

WINDS WILL ALSO BE QUITE STRONG ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS/CATSKILLS...AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WHERE GUSTS OF
30-40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR EVEN HIGHER
GUSTS. IN VALLEYS...BOUNDARY LAYER STABILITY MAY LIMIT HOW MUCH WIND
REACHES THE SURFACE...BUT WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO ASSESS THIS CLOSER
TO THE EVENT. SOME STRONGER GUSTS COULD ALSO OCCUR WITHIN ANY TALLER
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS AHEAD OF AND WITH THE ACTUAL FRONT AS WELL. MAX
TEMPS ON WED WILL BE TRICKY...AS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT RAPID
WARMING WELL INTO THE 50S COULD OCCUR AS A WARM FRONT TRANSLATES
NORTHWARD. THIS POTENTIAL WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT. FOR WED NT/THU AM...TEMPS SHOULD EVENTUALLY FALL
BACK INTO THE 30S IN VALLEYS...AND POSSIBLY SOME UPPER 20S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

IN THE WAKE OF THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM...WINDY AND MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR THURSDAY...WITH SNOW SHOWERS PREVALENT
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90.
WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AS WELL. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH DAYTIME MAXES REACHING THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

RISING HEIGHTS IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
DECREASING TREND IN AREAL COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR THU NT AND
ESP FRI. THU NT/FRI AM MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 20S TO AROUND
30...WITH MAX TEMPS FRI MAINLY IN THE LOWER 40S IN VALLEYS AND 30S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS FOR FRI NT/SAT AM
FALLING INTO THE 20S AND LOWER 30S. AND ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM COULD
BRING SOME RAIN OR SNOW TO THE REGION BY NEXT WEEKEND...WITH MAX
TEMPS REACHING 35-40 IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 30S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT...AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO
SUNDAY LATE MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH
AND WEST LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO TOMORROW NIGHT.

EXPECT VFR/HIGH MVFR CONDITIONS FOR KALB/KGFL/KPOU TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS BEING NEAR KALB/KALB BTWN
10Z-18Z. SOME LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL
BE IN THE VICINITY OF KPOU BTWN 06Z-14Z. LATER TAFS MAY HAVE TO
ADD TEMPO GROUPS. THE BEST CHC OF LIGHT SNOW MOVING INTO A
TERMINAL SITE WILL BE AT KPSF. MVFR CIGS WILL LOWER POTENTIALLY TO
IFR LEVELS WITH VSBYS ALSO IN THE IFR RANGE BTWN 09Z-15Z. EXPECT
MVFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST AT KPSF INTO THE AFTERNOON.
KALB/KPOU/KGFL WILL TREND TO VFR CIGS AFTER 18Z/SUN.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT AT 4 KTS OR LESS. EXPECT LIGHT
N TO NW WINDS AT 4 KTS OR LESS LATE TOMORROW MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHSN...FZRA...SLEET.
TUESDAY:MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY
RA...SN...FZRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...RA.
CHRISTMAS DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 0.75 INCH TO 1.5 INCHES ARE LIKELY ALONG WITH
SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT WHICH RAISES THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING
AND SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES OF LARGER STEM RIVERS. MMEFS
GUIDANCE POINTS TO MANY POINTS AT LEAST REACHING ACTION STAGE
AND HAS GVVN6 HAVING A HIGH PROBABILITY FROM THE GEFS AND NAEFS
GUIDANCE OF REACHING MINOR FLOOD STAGE ON CHRISTMAS DAY. TOO EARLY
TO ISSUE ANY FLOOD WATCHES...HOWEVER WILL MENTION IN THE HWO AT
THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11









000
FXUS61 KALY 210249
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
949 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO
TOMORROW...WHILE WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASS SOUTH OF THE
REGION. ONE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME FLURRIES OR
LIGHT SNOW TO THE TACONICS AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING.  UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH A PERIOD OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG
WINDS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 949 PM EST...

CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW
PASSING OVER ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND. PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE LAKE GEORGE REGION...WHILE CLOUDY
OR MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS PERSIST FROM THE MOHAWK
VALLEY...CAPITAL REGION...AND SRN VT AND THE BERKSHIRES SOUTH. THE
LIGHT SNOW DUE TO THE VORTICITY ADVECTION MAY DEVELOP OVER NW
CT...AND THE SRN TACONICS SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WEAK
INVERTED SFC TROUGH DOWNSTREAM WILL DRAW IN SOME ATLANTIC MOISTURE AND
SPREAD IT NORTHWEST FROM SE NEW ENGLAND AND CAPE COD. THE LATEST
HIRES WRF LAYER COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY IMAGERY SHOWS SOME LIGHT SNOW
MOVING INTO THE WRN NEW ENGLAND CORRIDOR. WE KEPT SLIGHT AND LOW
CHC POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW IN HERE. MIN TEMPS HAD TO BE LOWERED OVER
THE LAKE GEORGE GLENS FALLS AREA TO MID TEENS...SINCE SOME MINS
HAVE BEEN REACHED ALREADY. THE CLOUDS FILLING IN SHOULD SLOW THE
DOWNWARD TREND AFTER MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO MID 20S OVER MOST OF THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LINGERING SNOW WILL END ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD
HILLS BY MID DAY SUNDAY. ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE VERY LIGHT WITH
A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH UP TO AN INCH TOTAL. THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY IS EXPECTED TO BE CLOUDY ACROSS THE FA AS LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS
REMAIN IN PLACE TRAPPING MOISTURE BENEATH THEM. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 30S
SOUTHEAST.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
AS MOISTURE STARTS TO LIFT NORTHWARD FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
ON MONDAY AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. WHILE IT WILL BE DRY...CLOUDS WILL BE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S AND
HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE 30S.

ON MONDAY NIGHT MOISTURE STARTS TO OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA AS
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA WITH
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST.
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FA WITH A PLETHORA OF
PCPN TYPES MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA WITH
MAINLY SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA. PCPN SHOULD START
AS SNOW IN ALL AREAS BEFORE THE TRANSITION OCCURS DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA.
PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT SOME LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET MIXING IN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FA. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE TRICKY WITH NOT MUCH OF A DROP FROM
DAYTIME HIGHS ON MONDAY. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE MID
20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...PUNCTUATED BY A STRONG STORM SYSTEM TRACKING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE MAIN STORM
SYSTEM...A PERSISTENT MOIST FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC AND OVERRUNNING
WILL ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TUE AND TUE
NT. A SURGE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF A LEAD UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE
SHOULD ALLOW FOR A GREATER AREAL COVERAGE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION FOR
TUESDAY...ESP IN THE MORNING. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THAT THE
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION WOULD BE LIGHT SNOW OR A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF
SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO MAINLY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE BY LATE TUESDAY IN
MOST AREAS. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING
RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD LINGER INTO LATE TUE OR TUE EVE
ACROSS SOME SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE LAKE GEORGE REGION AND SOUTHERN
VT...AND POSSIBLY EASTERN BERKSHIRE CO. EXPECT TEMPS TO SLOWLY RISE
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S BY LATE TUESDAY. FOR TUE NT...MOST TEMPS
SHOULD HOLD NEARLY STEADY IN THE 30S.

THE MAIN STORM SHOULD IMPACT THE REGION WED INTO WED NT...ALTHOUGH
TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN THE LONG TERM GUIDANCE...AND THE
HANDLING OF POTENTIAL SFC WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG A COLD/OCCLUDED
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A NARROW COLD FRONTAL RAIN BAND
WILL LIKELY IMMEDIATELY PRECEDE/ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...AND COULD EVEN
CONTAIN SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER. MOST LONG TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT THIS FRONT PASSES THROUGH BETWEEN 00Z-06Z/THU. THE 12Z/20 ECMWF
SEEMS TO BE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. IN FACT...IT ACTUALLY ALLOWS COLDER AIR TO MOVE INTO
PORTIONS OF THE REGION AS THE TRAILING STRATIFORM PORTION OF THE
NARROW COLD FRONTAL BAND PASSES THROUGH...WITH SOME SUGGESTION OF
PRECIP ENDING AS SNOW...AT LEAST ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE
GFS/GEFS ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND LESS EMPHATIC WITH WAVE
DEVELOPMENT AND ANY SNOW/MIXED PRECIP. AT THIS TIME...HAVE INDICATED
SOME TRANSITION LATE AT NIGHT TO RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN VALLEYS...AND
MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

RAINFALL COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY WED-WED NT...WITH TOTAL QPF RANGING
FROM 0.75-1.5 INCHES...ALTHOUGH HIGHER AMTS WOULD BE POSSIBLE...ESP
SHOULD ANY WAVE DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND SLOW DOWN THE FORWARD
MOTION OF ANY FRONTAL RAIN BAND. THIS HEAVY RAINFALL...COMBINED WITH
SNOWMELT DUE TO STRONG WINDS AND MILD TEMPERATURES/HIGH
DEWPOINTS...COULD LEAD TO SOME HYDROLOGIC ISSUES INCLUDING MINOR
FLOODING. SEE THE HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS.

WINDS WILL ALSO BE QUITE STRONG ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS/CATSKILLS...AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WHERE GUSTS OF
30-40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR EVEN HIGHER
GUSTS. IN VALLEYS...BOUNDARY LAYER STABILITY MAY LIMIT HOW MUCH WIND
REACHES THE SURFACE...BUT WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO ASSESS THIS CLOSER
TO THE EVENT. SOME STRONGER GUSTS COULD ALSO OCCUR WITHIN ANY TALLER
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS AHEAD OF AND WITH THE ACTUAL FRONT AS WELL. MAX
TEMPS ON WED WILL BE TRICKY...AS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT RAPID
WARMING WELL INTO THE 50S COULD OCCUR AS A WARM FRONT TRANSLATES
NORTHWARD. THIS POTENTIAL WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT. FOR WED NT/THU AM...TEMPS SHOULD EVENTUALLY FALL
BACK INTO THE 30S IN VALLEYS...AND POSSIBLY SOME UPPER 20S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

IN THE WAKE OF THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM...WINDY AND MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR THURSDAY...WITH SNOW SHOWERS PREVALENT
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90.
WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AS WELL. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH DAYTIME MAXES REACHING THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

RISING HEIGHTS IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
DECREASING TREND IN AREAL COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR THU NT AND
ESP FRI. THU NT/FRI AM MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 20S TO AROUND
30...WITH MAX TEMPS FRI MAINLY IN THE LOWER 40S IN VALLEYS AND 30S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS FOR FRI NT/SAT AM
FALLING INTO THE 20S AND LOWER 30S. AND ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM COULD
BRING SOME RAIN OR SNOW TO THE REGION BY NEXT WEEKEND...WITH MAX
TEMPS REACHING 35-40 IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 30S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT...AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO
SUNDAY LATE MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH
AND WEST LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO TOMORROW NIGHT.

EXPECT VFR/HIGH MVFR CONDITIONS FOR KALB/KGFL/KPOU TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS BEING NEAR KALB/KALB BTWN
10Z-18Z. SOME LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL
BE IN THE VICINITY OF KPOU BTWN 06Z-14Z. LATER TAFS MAY HAVE TO
ADD TEMPO GROUPS. THE BEST CHC OF LIGHT SNOW MOVING INTO A
TERMINAL SITE WILL BE AT KPSF. MVFR CIGS WILL LOWER POTENTIALLY TO
IFR LEVELS WITH VSBYS ALSO IN THE IFR RANGE BTWN 09Z-15Z. EXPECT
MVFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST AT KPSF INTO THE AFTERNOON.
KALB/KPOU/KGFL WILL TREND TO VFR CIGS AFTER 18Z/SUN.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT AT 4 KTS OR LESS. EXPECT LIGHT
N TO NW WINDS AT 4 KTS OR LESS LATE TOMORROW MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHSN...FZRA...SLEET.
TUESDAY:MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY
RA...SN...FZRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...RA.
CHRISTMAS DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 0.75 INCH TO 1.5 INCHES ARE LIKELY ALONG WITH
SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT WHICH RAISES THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING
AND SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES OF LARGER STEM RIVERS. MMEFS
GUIDANCE POINTS TO MANY POINTS AT LEAST REACHING ACTION STAGE
AND HAS GVVN6 HAVING A HIGH PROBABILITY FROM THE GEFS AND NAEFS
GUIDANCE OF REACHING MINOR FLOOD STAGE ON CHRISTMAS DAY. TOO EARLY
TO ISSUE ANY FLOOD WATCHES...HOWEVER WILL MENTION IN THE HWO AT
THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11









000
FXUS61 KALY 210249
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
949 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO
TOMORROW...WHILE WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASS SOUTH OF THE
REGION. ONE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME FLURRIES OR
LIGHT SNOW TO THE TACONICS AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING.  UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH A PERIOD OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG
WINDS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 949 PM EST...

CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW
PASSING OVER ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND. PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE LAKE GEORGE REGION...WHILE CLOUDY
OR MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS PERSIST FROM THE MOHAWK
VALLEY...CAPITAL REGION...AND SRN VT AND THE BERKSHIRES SOUTH. THE
LIGHT SNOW DUE TO THE VORTICITY ADVECTION MAY DEVELOP OVER NW
CT...AND THE SRN TACONICS SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WEAK
INVERTED SFC TROUGH DOWNSTREAM WILL DRAW IN SOME ATLANTIC MOISTURE AND
SPREAD IT NORTHWEST FROM SE NEW ENGLAND AND CAPE COD. THE LATEST
HIRES WRF LAYER COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY IMAGERY SHOWS SOME LIGHT SNOW
MOVING INTO THE WRN NEW ENGLAND CORRIDOR. WE KEPT SLIGHT AND LOW
CHC POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW IN HERE. MIN TEMPS HAD TO BE LOWERED OVER
THE LAKE GEORGE GLENS FALLS AREA TO MID TEENS...SINCE SOME MINS
HAVE BEEN REACHED ALREADY. THE CLOUDS FILLING IN SHOULD SLOW THE
DOWNWARD TREND AFTER MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO MID 20S OVER MOST OF THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LINGERING SNOW WILL END ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD
HILLS BY MID DAY SUNDAY. ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE VERY LIGHT WITH
A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH UP TO AN INCH TOTAL. THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY IS EXPECTED TO BE CLOUDY ACROSS THE FA AS LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS
REMAIN IN PLACE TRAPPING MOISTURE BENEATH THEM. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 30S
SOUTHEAST.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
AS MOISTURE STARTS TO LIFT NORTHWARD FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
ON MONDAY AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. WHILE IT WILL BE DRY...CLOUDS WILL BE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S AND
HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE 30S.

ON MONDAY NIGHT MOISTURE STARTS TO OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA AS
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA WITH
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST.
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FA WITH A PLETHORA OF
PCPN TYPES MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA WITH
MAINLY SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA. PCPN SHOULD START
AS SNOW IN ALL AREAS BEFORE THE TRANSITION OCCURS DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA.
PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT SOME LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET MIXING IN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FA. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE TRICKY WITH NOT MUCH OF A DROP FROM
DAYTIME HIGHS ON MONDAY. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE MID
20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...PUNCTUATED BY A STRONG STORM SYSTEM TRACKING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE MAIN STORM
SYSTEM...A PERSISTENT MOIST FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC AND OVERRUNNING
WILL ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TUE AND TUE
NT. A SURGE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF A LEAD UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE
SHOULD ALLOW FOR A GREATER AREAL COVERAGE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION FOR
TUESDAY...ESP IN THE MORNING. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THAT THE
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION WOULD BE LIGHT SNOW OR A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF
SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO MAINLY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE BY LATE TUESDAY IN
MOST AREAS. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING
RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD LINGER INTO LATE TUE OR TUE EVE
ACROSS SOME SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE LAKE GEORGE REGION AND SOUTHERN
VT...AND POSSIBLY EASTERN BERKSHIRE CO. EXPECT TEMPS TO SLOWLY RISE
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S BY LATE TUESDAY. FOR TUE NT...MOST TEMPS
SHOULD HOLD NEARLY STEADY IN THE 30S.

THE MAIN STORM SHOULD IMPACT THE REGION WED INTO WED NT...ALTHOUGH
TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN THE LONG TERM GUIDANCE...AND THE
HANDLING OF POTENTIAL SFC WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG A COLD/OCCLUDED
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A NARROW COLD FRONTAL RAIN BAND
WILL LIKELY IMMEDIATELY PRECEDE/ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...AND COULD EVEN
CONTAIN SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER. MOST LONG TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT THIS FRONT PASSES THROUGH BETWEEN 00Z-06Z/THU. THE 12Z/20 ECMWF
SEEMS TO BE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. IN FACT...IT ACTUALLY ALLOWS COLDER AIR TO MOVE INTO
PORTIONS OF THE REGION AS THE TRAILING STRATIFORM PORTION OF THE
NARROW COLD FRONTAL BAND PASSES THROUGH...WITH SOME SUGGESTION OF
PRECIP ENDING AS SNOW...AT LEAST ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE
GFS/GEFS ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND LESS EMPHATIC WITH WAVE
DEVELOPMENT AND ANY SNOW/MIXED PRECIP. AT THIS TIME...HAVE INDICATED
SOME TRANSITION LATE AT NIGHT TO RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN VALLEYS...AND
MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

RAINFALL COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY WED-WED NT...WITH TOTAL QPF RANGING
FROM 0.75-1.5 INCHES...ALTHOUGH HIGHER AMTS WOULD BE POSSIBLE...ESP
SHOULD ANY WAVE DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND SLOW DOWN THE FORWARD
MOTION OF ANY FRONTAL RAIN BAND. THIS HEAVY RAINFALL...COMBINED WITH
SNOWMELT DUE TO STRONG WINDS AND MILD TEMPERATURES/HIGH
DEWPOINTS...COULD LEAD TO SOME HYDROLOGIC ISSUES INCLUDING MINOR
FLOODING. SEE THE HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS.

WINDS WILL ALSO BE QUITE STRONG ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS/CATSKILLS...AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WHERE GUSTS OF
30-40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR EVEN HIGHER
GUSTS. IN VALLEYS...BOUNDARY LAYER STABILITY MAY LIMIT HOW MUCH WIND
REACHES THE SURFACE...BUT WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO ASSESS THIS CLOSER
TO THE EVENT. SOME STRONGER GUSTS COULD ALSO OCCUR WITHIN ANY TALLER
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS AHEAD OF AND WITH THE ACTUAL FRONT AS WELL. MAX
TEMPS ON WED WILL BE TRICKY...AS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT RAPID
WARMING WELL INTO THE 50S COULD OCCUR AS A WARM FRONT TRANSLATES
NORTHWARD. THIS POTENTIAL WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT. FOR WED NT/THU AM...TEMPS SHOULD EVENTUALLY FALL
BACK INTO THE 30S IN VALLEYS...AND POSSIBLY SOME UPPER 20S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

IN THE WAKE OF THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM...WINDY AND MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR THURSDAY...WITH SNOW SHOWERS PREVALENT
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90.
WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AS WELL. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH DAYTIME MAXES REACHING THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

RISING HEIGHTS IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
DECREASING TREND IN AREAL COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR THU NT AND
ESP FRI. THU NT/FRI AM MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 20S TO AROUND
30...WITH MAX TEMPS FRI MAINLY IN THE LOWER 40S IN VALLEYS AND 30S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS FOR FRI NT/SAT AM
FALLING INTO THE 20S AND LOWER 30S. AND ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM COULD
BRING SOME RAIN OR SNOW TO THE REGION BY NEXT WEEKEND...WITH MAX
TEMPS REACHING 35-40 IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 30S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT...AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO
SUNDAY LATE MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH
AND WEST LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO TOMORROW NIGHT.

EXPECT VFR/HIGH MVFR CONDITIONS FOR KALB/KGFL/KPOU TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS BEING NEAR KALB/KALB BTWN
10Z-18Z. SOME LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL
BE IN THE VICINITY OF KPOU BTWN 06Z-14Z. LATER TAFS MAY HAVE TO
ADD TEMPO GROUPS. THE BEST CHC OF LIGHT SNOW MOVING INTO A
TERMINAL SITE WILL BE AT KPSF. MVFR CIGS WILL LOWER POTENTIALLY TO
IFR LEVELS WITH VSBYS ALSO IN THE IFR RANGE BTWN 09Z-15Z. EXPECT
MVFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST AT KPSF INTO THE AFTERNOON.
KALB/KPOU/KGFL WILL TREND TO VFR CIGS AFTER 18Z/SUN.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT AT 4 KTS OR LESS. EXPECT LIGHT
N TO NW WINDS AT 4 KTS OR LESS LATE TOMORROW MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHSN...FZRA...SLEET.
TUESDAY:MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY
RA...SN...FZRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...RA.
CHRISTMAS DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 0.75 INCH TO 1.5 INCHES ARE LIKELY ALONG WITH
SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT WHICH RAISES THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING
AND SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES OF LARGER STEM RIVERS. MMEFS
GUIDANCE POINTS TO MANY POINTS AT LEAST REACHING ACTION STAGE
AND HAS GVVN6 HAVING A HIGH PROBABILITY FROM THE GEFS AND NAEFS
GUIDANCE OF REACHING MINOR FLOOD STAGE ON CHRISTMAS DAY. TOO EARLY
TO ISSUE ANY FLOOD WATCHES...HOWEVER WILL MENTION IN THE HWO AT
THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11









000
FXUS61 KOKX 210247
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
947 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY
STATIONARY TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES MONDAY
AFTERNOON...AND REMAINS SOUTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. A STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ENDING EARLY CHRISTMAS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL AFFECT THE
REGION NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
FLURRIES CONTINUE TO BE REPORTED OVER MAINLY EASTERN SECTIONS OF
THE CWA. 00Z SOUNDING ONLY SHOWS SATURATION TO ABOUT
-10C. HOWEVER...PROXIMITY TO THE OCEAN AND THEREFORE SEA SALT MAY
ACT AS ICE NUCLEI...WHICH CAN FORM ICE CRYSTALS AT WARMER TEMPS.
THE ONLY AREA THAT MIGHT SEE SOME RAIN MIX IN IS THE TWIN FORKS
OF LONG ISLAND AND PERHAPS PORTIONS OF NEW LONDON IN CT. MESOSCALE
MODELS SHOW THAT THE PRECIP SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...THOUGH THE
TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREAD SHOULD ONLY AMOUNT TO FLURRIES.
HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT A DUSTING OR COATING IN SOME
SPOTS...ESPECIALLY HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CT. OTHERWISE...FORECAST
IS ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO REFLECT CURRENT OBS.

CLOUD COVER AND A NLY FLOW TODAY KEPT TEMPS IN CHECK WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO THE LOWER 30S. THE LAST
DAY OF AUTUMN WILL FINISH AS ONE OF THE COLDEST. WINTER SOLSTICE
IS 603 PM SUNDAY EVENING.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY
THIS EVENING. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE COLD AIR SUPPLY WITH LIGHT
NLY WINDS. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO REMAIN TRAPPED BENEATH A
STRONG INVERSION AT APPROXIMATELY 900 MB. THUS...LOOKING AT
CONTINUED CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING
TOO FAST WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 20S WELL INLAND TO AROUND
30 AT THE COAST.

A SHORT WAVE TROF OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. THIS COUPLED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH LIFT FOR SNOW FLURRIES OR VERY
LIGHT SNOW...WITH THE BEST CHANCE BEING ACROSS EASTERN LI AND SE
CT. LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS FORECAST. THERE COULD ALSO
BE SOME RAIN MIXED IN AND/OR FREEZING RAIN WITH LACK A ICE
CRYSTALS IN THE CLOUD BEARING LAYER. OFTEN THOUGH ALONG THE
COAST...SEA SALT CAN LOWER THE ACTIVATION TEMP OF ICE NUCLEI.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MORNING FLURRIES AND/OR SPRINKLES WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTIAL
CLEARING BY AFT AS SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN ALOFT. FAR
EASTERN LI AND SE CT COULD STAY MOSTLY CLOUDY ALL DAY DUE TO
DEEPER MOISTURE IN PLACE BENEATH AN INVERSION.

HIGHS ON SUN WILL APPROACH 40 ALONG THE COAST,,,BUT A FEW DEGREES
COOLER INLAND. THIS COULD VARY BASED ON THE EXTENT OF CLEARING.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...WITH LOW-LEVEL NLY WINDS GRADUALLY VEERING SUN NIGHT.
LOWS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE 20S SUN NIGHT...BUT THE EXTENT OF
THE CLOUD COVER REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AS THE FLOW BECOMES
MORE NE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST
MONDAY...AND WILL BE ON A DEVELOPING WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS LOW
REMAINS WEAK AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES SLOWLY NORTH MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. MEANWHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND INTO SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA WEAKENS. AT THE UPPER LEVELS A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH DEVELOPS
MONDAY FRONT CENTRAL CANADA INTO MEXICO WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENING IN THE UPPER MIDWEST. DURING WEDNESDAY THE TROUGH BECOMES
NEGATIVE WITH THE LOW MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE
WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. SO WITH WEAK LIFT DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT WILL
KEEP CHANCE POPS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY. GUIDANCE IS NO
LONGER DEEPENING WITH COASTAL LOW AND KEEP THE LOW OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AS THE PRIMARY LOW WITH THE NEGATIVE TROUGH. AS THE LOWS COLD
FRONT APPROACHES LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...A STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET TO NEAR 70 KT DEVELOPS. WITH A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW
LIMITING MIXING STRONG GUSTY WIND WILL BE LIMITED. HOWEVER THE LOW
LEVEL JET WILL PROVIDE STRONG LIFT DURING WEDNESDAY AND PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. WARMING OCCURS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH ALL LIQUID DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. BEFORE
THAT...MONDAY NIGHT...SOME LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE
INLAND...HOWEVER NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. THE THERMAL PROFILE
OF THE GFS WAS SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE 20/00Z ECMWF AND USED A
BLEND FOR P-TYPE.

AS THE PARENT LOW MOVES INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION AFTER 05Z INTO
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...PASSING JUST EAST OF THE AREA AROUND 12Z
THURSDAY. WITH TIMING CONSISTENCY HAVE KEPT THE LIKELY AND
CATEGORICAL POPS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

IN THE COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY AND WITH CYCLONIC WEST
TO NORTHWEST FLOW...STRONG AND GUSTY WIND WILL BE LIKELY. HAVE KEPT
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR NOW...HOWEVER GUSTS COULD BE CLOSE TO 45
KT AT TIMES THURSDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS. THEN FOR
NEXT WEEKEND ANOTHER INLAND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
AND DEPARTS EARLY IN THE WEEK.

MAINLY MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 2-3 KFT. NYC METRO TERMINALS ARE
BEGINNING TO DROP TO MVFR AND THINK THEY WILL REMAIN BETWEEN
2-3KFT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES AND
MOVES ACROSS. LIGHT SNOW AND/OR FLURRIES POSSIBLE FOR
KGON/KISP/KBDR TONIGHT...BUT NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT VSBY AND CHC`S
AREN`T HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS.

MAY BE TOO OPTIMISTIC WITH CIGS IN NYC METRO AT 12Z AND MVFR COULD
LINGER INTO THE AFTN.

LIGHT AND VRB WINDS OVERNIGHT...THEN COULD BACK 20-30 DEGREES MORE
TO THE LEFT OF 00Z FORECAST DURING THE DAY SUN.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.SUN NIGHT...VFR.
.MON-MON NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN E FLOW. CHC OF RAIN.
.TUE-TUE NIGHT...IFR LIKELY IN RAIN...CIGS AND VSBYS. E WINDS 10-20
KT...BECOMING SE.
.WED...HIGH IMPACT EVENT POSSIBLE...IFR LIKELY WITH HEAVY RAIN AND
GUSTY SE WINDS 25KT+ SHIFTING TO SW LATE WED.
.THU...SUB VFR EARLY IN SHOWERS...THEN VFR WITH GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS
20-25 KT G40 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECAST ON TRACK...NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING NORTH OF THE WATERS...CAN EXPECT NORTH
WINDS 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH SEAS GENERALLY
1-2 FT ON THE OCEAN OR 1 FT OR LESS ON ALL OTHER WATERS.

A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS...WITH SEAS ALSO
REMAINING BELOW 5 FT. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA
WATERS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW. SMALL CRAFT WIND
AND SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT...AND ACROSS ALL THE WATERS WEDNESDAY. THEN IN THE COLDER AIR
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY WIND GUSTS WILL BE GALE FORCE ACROSS
ALL THE WATERS AND REMAIN INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTS DIMINISHING
TOWARD FRIDAY MORNING...WITH GUSTS BELOW SMALL CRAFT LATER WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS WILL REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD TOTAL 1
TO 2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. MUCH OF THE RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MINOR URBAN AND
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MET/DW
NEAR TERM...MET/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...
MARINE...MET/DW
HYDROLOGY...MET/DW









000
FXUS61 KBOX 210220
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
918 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH SUN.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND BRINGING ANOTHER
PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. A MUCH STRONGER
STORM PASSING WEST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING HEAVY
RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS AND COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS TO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRY BUT VERY WINDY CONDITIONS
FOLLOW FOR CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...

915 PM UPDATE...

A RATHER TRICKY FORECAST OVERNIGHT WITH INVERTED TROUGH/COASTAL
FRONT RESULTING IN SOME MESOSCALE PROCESSES.  MAIN BAND OF SNOW THAT
HAS DROPPED A NARROW BAND OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS
OF BOSTON/S SOUTH SHORE WAS GRADUALLY PRESSING SOUTHWEST THIS
EVENING.  THIS PARTLY IN RESPONSE TO A SUBTLE COASTAL FRONT THAT WAS
ALSO SHIFTING FURTHER WEST INTO PLYMOUTH AND EVEN FAR EASTERN
NORFOLK COUNTY.  MILDER AIR WAS ALSO CAUSING SOME OF THESE AREAS TO
MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO RAIN.

OVERALL...STILL THINK THAT A COATING TO AT MOST 2 INCHES WILL COVER
IT FOR MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND INTO SUNDAY.  WE DID OPT TO
SHIFT THE BEST RISK FOR THE 1 TO 2 INCHES A BIT FURTHER SOUTH AND
WEST BASED ON RADAR RETURNS AND LATEST GUIDANCE.  LOW RISK OF
ISOLATED 3 INCH AMOUNTS REMAINS POSSIBLE.

THE RAIN/SNOW LINE WILL LIKELY HANG OUT ACROSS FAR EASTERN
NORFOLK/PLYMOUTH AND PERHAPS FAR SOUTHEAST BRISTOL COUNTIES.  THE
MODELS MAY BE SLIGHTLY UNDER ESTIMATING THE WESTWARD PUSH OF THIS
LINE...SO SOMETHING TO WATCH BUT DO NOT THINK IT WILL GET MUCH
FURTHER WEST THAN THAT.

FINALLY...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS MAY ALSO DEVELOP INTO WESTERN
MA/NORTHERN CONNECTICUT OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH A
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE.  MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON EXACTLY HOW THIS
WILL UNFOLD...BUT INCREASING EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW JUST OFF THE
GROUND SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME ACTIVITY IN OUR WESTERN ZONES
BY DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING HOURS...THEN TAPER
OFF AS INVERTED TROUGH PULLS AWAY FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN.  MOST LIKELY AREAS FOR CONTINUING
SHOWERS WILL BE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EAST COAST OF MASSACHUSETTS.

AS THE DAY GOES ON...EXPECT A SLOW DRYING TREND AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION.  CLOUDS WILL STICK AROUND WITH TEMPS
GENERALLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BIG PICTURE... SHORTWAVE ENTERING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST CROSSES THE
ROCKIES OVER THE WEEKEND DRIVEN BY A 160-KNOT JET.  THIS DIGS A
SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS MONDAY-TUESDAY WHILE PACIFIC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. THIS IN TURN WILL ALLOW AN
UPPER RIDGE TO BUILD ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST AND SLOWLY SHIFT EAST
OF THE COAST.  THE JET ENERGY WORKS ITS WAY AROUND THE BASE OF THE
PLAINS TROUGH AND MOVES UP THE APPALACHANS MIDWEEK.  THIS SUPPORTS A
TRANSITION OF THE TROUGH TO NEGATIVE TILT AND SLOWER MOVEMENT...WITH
WARM MOIST AIR FOR THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE TROUGH AXIS SWINGS OVER
NEW ENGLAND CHRISTMAS DAY FOLLOWED BY A WEAK RIDGE. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE MOVES ASHORE FROM THE PACIFIC MIDWEEK AND MOVES ACROSS THE
PLAINS BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND APPROACHES THE NORTHEAST USA
SATURDAY.

THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN DETAILS AMONG THE LONG RANGE MODELS...BUT
ALL SHOW A SIMILAR SCENARIO BOTH FOR THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM AND THE END
OF WEEK SYSTEM.  WE USED A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF.

THE DAILIES...

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY... HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NORTH OF THE REGION
BRINGING A MOIST EAST FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. UPPER
PATTERN SHOWS WEAK RIDGING AS THE PLAINS TROUGH DIGS...BUT SURFACE
FIELDS SUGGEST A LINGERING INVERTED TROUGH ALONG OR JUST OFFSHORE.
THIS SHOULD MAINTAIN CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS. COULD BE SOME DRIZZLE OR
FLURRIES NEAR THE EAST COAST BUT SUPPORTING LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS
LACKING SO PCPN SHOULD BE LIMITED.

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY... LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG A STALLED WARM
FRONT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. AS THE LOW DEVELOPS...IT BRINGS
AN INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT AGAINST HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
THROUGH THE MARITIMES. THE RESULT WILL BE A STRENGTHENING LOW
LEVEL EAST- SOUTHEAST JET. THIS WILL INCREASE THE MOIST INFLOW
OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ALSO...AS THE JET CONVERGES ON THE
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH IT WILL GENERATE INCREASED LOW LEVEL LIFT
AND INCREASE THE CHANCE OF PCPN. WE WILL HAVE CLOUDS AND CHANCE
POPS. TEMPS IN NORTHWEST MASS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH SO THAT THERE
MAY BE A MIX OF PCPN TYPES DURING THE MORNING.

TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY... PLAINS UPPER TROUGH DIGS DEEPER AND MOVES
EAST...PUSHING THE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR EAST. ALSO...THE STRONG UPPER
SOUTHWEST JET MOVES UP OVER THE EASTERN USA. THIS SETUP WILL TAKE
THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW UP THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
SECONDARY LOWS FORMING ON THE SYSTEM COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. A SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL JET
WILL MOVE UP THE ATLANTIC COAST ON WEDNESDAY AND OVER THE TOP OF THE
EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW AT THE SURFACE. THE RESULT WILL BE PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL LIFT THE GENERATE PCPN.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO EXCEED 1.5 INCHES...WHICH
IS 3 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR DECEMBER.  THIS MEANS A LOT OF
WATER AVAILABLE AS PCPN. TEMPERATURE PROFILES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING
SO PTYPE SHOULD BE RAIN. MODEL QPF SHOWS POTENTIAL RAINFALL OF OVER
2 INCHES. THIS WOULD SUGGEST POTENTIAL URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING
ISSUES WEDNESDAY.

STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE ECMWF SHOWS EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS 30-35 KNOTS ALONG HE
EAST MASS COAST AT 1000 MB. THEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT WINDS AT 925 MB
INCREASE TO 60-75 KNOTS AND MOVE ACROSS COASTAL RI AND SOUTHEAST
MASS. STRONG DOWNPOURS MAY OVERCOME THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION AND
BRING STRONG GUSTS OF AT LEAST 30-40 KNOTS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
SOUTH COAST. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED IN SOME AREAS.

MAINTAINED A LIMITED MENTION OF THUNDER...AS CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS
ARE MARGINAL...SI VALUES WILL BE JUST ABOVE ZERO AND K INDEX WILL BE
IN THE LOW 30S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

UPPER LOW WILL SWING THE SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO WEST AND PCPN
SHOULD COME TO AN END AROUND THE TIME THAT SANTA ARRIVES.

CHRISTMAS DAY... WEST WINDS WILL BRING A DRYING OF THE AIRMASS
DURING THE DAY. SO THE TREND SHOULD BE TO AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING.
SUFFICIENT COLD ADVECTION AT ALL LEVELS THURSDAY WILL ALLOW SOME
MIXING.  WINDS IN THE SFC-850 MB LAYER WILL BE 30-40 KNOTS AND
POSSIBLY A LITTLE HIGHER...WHICH WOULD REQUIRE A WIND ADVISORY FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY
AND BRING A SUNNY DAY. THE NEXT PACIFIC SHORTWAVE APPROACHES
SATURDAY AND SHOULD BRING INCREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST ALONG
WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND AT
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MOVING
WEST OFF THE OCEAN INTO SOUTHEASTERN MASS. THESE WILL SPREAD
FARTHER WEST INTO RI/CENTRAL MASS/NORTHEAST CT. LOCAL IFR
CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST SHOWERS.

WINDS ARE ENE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SOUTHEAST MASS COAST WITH NORTH
TO NORTHWEST WINDS ELSEWHERE. THIS WINDSHIFT MAY NUDGE FARTHER
WEST WITH THE SHOWERS EARLY TONIGHT.

MVFR CIGS MAY REACH THE CT VALLEY LATE TONIGHT BUT LOW CONFIDENCE
ABOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION IN VSBY THERE.

MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER MOST AREA ON SUNDAY. ANY CIGS THAT RISE
ABOVE MVFR SHOULD ONLY REACH AROUND 4000 FEET.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. FLURRIES AND SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGH 06Z WITH POTENTIAL FOR WINDSHIFT TO 040 DURING
THIS TIME.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...MVFR CIGS CONTINUE IN RI/EASTERN MASS IN
MARINE EAST FLOW. VFR IN THE WEST.

TUESDAY...VFR WITH SCATTERED MVFR IN ANY RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS LOWERING TO IFR IN RAIN/HEAVY RAIN. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EAST-SOUTHEST
SURFACE WINDS MAY GUST TO 35 KNOTS ALONG THE EAST MASSACHUSETTS
COAST. WINDS AT 2000 FEET AGL WILL REACH 50-60 KNOTS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY NIGHT CREATING LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONCERNS.

CHRISTMAS DAY...WEST WIND GUSTING 30-40 KNOTS. CONDITIONS IMPROVING
TO VFR AS THE WIND BRINGS IN COOLER DRIER AIR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS QUEBEC WILL RESULT IN
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS WITH SEAS BETWEEN 2 AND 4 FEET ARE
EXPECTED FOR MOST WATERS...SO NO HEADLINES PLANNED.

THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY THAT A BRIEF SURGE OF NORTHEAST WIND
GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS WITH MARGINAL 5 FOOT SEAS COULD AFFECT OUR
NORTHERN WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUN MORNING...BUT NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO ISSUE ANY HEADLINES AT THIS POINT.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING AROUND 15
KNOTS OR LESS.  SEAS WILL HOLD AROUND 3-4 FEET.

TUESDAY... INCREASING EAST WINDS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5-6 FEET ON THE EXPOSED WATERS.  A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

WEDNESDAY...RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES PRODUCING POOR VISIBILITY.
INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS 20-25 SUSTAINED AND 40 KNOT GUSTS.  WINDS
SHOULD SHIFT TO SOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SOUTHWEST TOWARD THURSDAY
MORNING. RAIN WILL TAPER OFF WITH THE WIND SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST. SEAS
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD WITH 5-10 FEET HEIGHTS ON THE EXPOSED WATERS.
A GALE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

CHRISTMAS DAY... WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST 35-40
KNOTS...SO A GALE WARNING MAY CONTINUE TO BE NEEDED. SEAS OF 10-15
FEET ARE POSSIBLE ON THE EXPOSED WATERS...AND 5 FEET IS POSSIBLE ON
SOME OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL OCCUR
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. BREAKING IT DOWN...ON TUESDAY HIGH TIDE
AT BOSTON WILL BE 11.6 FT. THERE WILL BE EAST WINDS DURING THIS
HIGH TIDE ALLOWING FOR MINOR SPLASHOVER ALONG THE MASS COAST. IF
WIND GUSTS INCREASE THEN COULD POSSIBLE SEE MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING.

ON WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL SWITCH TO A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DURING
THE DAY AND INCREASE QUICKLY DUE TO THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE IN BOSTON IS 11.7 FT...AND AN
APPRECIABLE EAST OR SOUTHEAST WIND SHOULD PUSH LEVELS HIGHER THAN ON
TUESDAY.  THIS WOULD PROBABLY BE THE BEST CHACNE OF MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING ALONG THE EAST COAST.

THE WEDNESDAY EVENING HIGH TIDE WILL BE A LITTLE LOWER...BUT THE
WIND BECOMES SOUTH WITH 50-60 KNOTS AT 2000 FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE
AVAILABLE TO BE BROUGHT DOWN IN GUSTS. HIGH TIDE IN PROVIDENCE WILL
BE 5.2 FT. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING COULD OCCUR ALONG THE SOUTH
COASTS OF RI AND MASS...AND COULD BE CHANNELED IN NORTH-SOUTH AXIS
BAYS SUCH AS NARRAGANSETT BAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$ SYNOPSIS...WTB/RLG
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/RLG
MARINE...WTB/RLG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...STAFF



000
FXUS61 KOKX 210010
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
710 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY
STATIONARY TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES MONDAY
AFTERNOON...AND REMAINS SOUTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. A STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ENDING EARLY CHRISTMAS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL AFFECT THE
REGION NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES WERE OCCURRING ACROSS SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT
AND EASTERN SUFFOLK COUNTY WITH JUST A DUSTING IN SOME LOCATIONS
OF CONNECTICUT...MAINLY THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FORECAST ON TRACK.

CLOUD COVER AND A NLY FLOW TODAY KEPT TEMPS IN CHECK WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO THE LOWER 30S. THE LAST
DAY OF AUTUMN WILL FINISH AS ONE OF THE COLDEST. WINTER SOLSTICE
IS 603 PM SUNDAY EVENING.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY
THIS EVENING. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE COLD AIR SUPPLY WITH LIGHT
NLY WINDS. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO REMAIN TRAPPED BENEATH A
STRONG INVERSION AT APPROXIMATELY 900 MB. THUS...LOOKING AT
CONTINUED CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING
TOO FAST WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 20S WELL INLAND TO AROUND
30 AT THE COAST.

A SHORT WAVE TROF OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. THIS COUPLED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH LIFT FOR SNOW FLURRIES OR VERY
LIGHT SNOW...WITH THE BEST CHANCE BEING ACROSS EASTERN LI AND SE
CT. LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS FORECAST. THERE COULD ALSO
BE SOME RAIN MIXED IN AND/OR FREEZING RAIN WITH LACK A ICE
CRYSTALS IN THE CLOUD BEARING LAYER. OFTEN THOUGH ALONG THE
COAST...SEA SALT CAN LOWER THE ACTIVATION TEMP OF ICE NUCLEI.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MORNING FLURRIES AND/OR SPRINKLES WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTIAL
CLEARING BY AFT AS SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN ALOFT. FAR
EASTERN LI AND SE CT COULD STAY MOSTLY CLOUDY ALL DAY DUE TO
DEEPER MOISTURE IN PLACE BENEATH AN INVERSION.

HIGHS ON SUN WILL APPROACH 40 ALONG THE COAST,,,BUT A FEW DEGREES
COOLER INLAND. THIS COULD VARY BASED ON THE EXTENT OF CLEARING.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...WITH LOW-LEVEL NLY WINDS GRADUALLY VEERING SUN NIGHT.
LOWS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE 20S SUN NIGHT...BUT THE EXTENT OF
THE CLOUD COVER REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AS THE FLOW BECOMES
MORE NE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST
MONDAY...AND WILL BE ON A DEVELOPING WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS LOW
REMAINS WEAK AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES SLOWLY NORTH MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. MEANWHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND INTO SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA WEAKENS. AT THE UPPER LEVELS A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH DEVELOPS
MONDAY FRONT CENTRAL CANADA INTO MEXICO WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENING IN THE UPPER MIDWEST. DURING WEDNESDAY THE TROUGH BECOMES
NEGATIVE WITH THE LOW MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE
WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. SO WITH WEAK LIFT DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT WILL
KEEP CHANCE POPS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY. GUIDANCE IS NO
LONGER DEEPENING WITH COASTAL LOW AND KEEP THE LOW OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AS THE PRIMARY LOW WITH THE NEGATIVE TROUGH. AS THE LOWS COLD
FRONT APPROACHES LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...A STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET TO NEAR 70 KT DEVELOPS. WITH A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW
LIMITING MIXING STRONG GUSTY WIND WILL BE LIMITED. HOWEVER THE LOW
LEVEL JET WILL PROVIDE STRONG LIFT DURING WEDNESDAY AND PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. WARMING OCCURS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH ALL LIQUID DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. BEFORE
THAT...MONDAY NIGHT...SOME LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE
INLAND...HOWEVER NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. THE THERMAL PROFILE
OF THE GFS WAS SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE 20/00Z ECMWF AND USED A
BLEND FOR P-TYPE.

AS THE PARENT LOW MOVES INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION AFTER 05Z INTO
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...PASSING JUST EAST OF THE AREA AROUND 12Z
THURSDAY. WITH TIMING CONSISTENCY HAVE KEPT THE LIKELY AND
CATEGORICAL POPS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

IN THE COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY AND WITH CYCLONIC WEST
TO NORTHWEST FLOW...STRONG AND GUSTY WIND WILL BE LIKELY. HAVE KEPT
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR NOW...HOWEVER GUSTS COULD BE CLOSE TO 45
KT AT TIMES THURSDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS. THEN FOR
NEXT WEEKEND ANOTHER INLAND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
AND DEPARTS EARLY IN THE WEEK.

MAINLY MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 2-3 KFT. NYC METRO TERMINALS HAVE BEEN
HOLDING ON TO LOW END VFR CIGS LAST FEW HOURS...BUT ARE SURROUNDED
BY MVFR CIGS AND WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FEEL THEY
WILL DROP BETWEEN 3Z AND 6Z. LIGHT SNOW AND/OR FLURRIES POSSIBLE
FOR KGON/KISP/KBDR TONIGHT...BUT NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT VSBY AND
CHC`S AREN`T HIGH ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN IN TAFS.

MAY BE TOO OPTIMISTIC WITH CIGS IN NYC METRO AT 12Z AND MVFR COULD
LINGER INTO THE AFTN.

LIGHT AND VRB WINDS OVERNIGHT...THEN COULD BACK 20-30 DEGREES MORE
TO THE LEFT OF 00Z FORECAST DURING THE DAY SUN.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.SUN NIGHT...VFR.
.MON-MON NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN E FLOW. CHC OF RAIN.
.TUE-TUE NIGHT...IFR LIKELY IN RAIN...CIGS AND VSBYS. E WINDS 10-20
KT...BECOMING SE.
.WED...HIGH IMPACT EVENT POSSIBLE...IFR LIKELY WITH HEAVY RAIN AND
GUSTY SE WINDS 25KT+ SHIFTING TO SW LATE WED.
.THU...SUB VFR EARLY IN SHOWERS...THEN VFR WITH GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS
20-25 KT G40 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECAST ON TRACK...NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING NORTH OF THE WATERS...CAN EXPECT NORTH
WINDS 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH SEAS GENERALLY
1-2 FT ON THE OCEAN OR 1 FT OR LESS ON ALL OTHER WATERS.

A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS...WITH SEAS ALSO
REMAINING BELOW 5 FT. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA
WATERS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW. SMALL CRAFT WIND
AND SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT...AND ACROSS ALL THE WATERS WEDNESDAY. THEN IN THE COLDER AIR
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY WIND GUSTS WILL BE GALE FORCE ACROSS
ALL THE WATERS AND REMAIN INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTS DIMINISHING
TOWARD FRIDAY MORNING...WITH GUSTS BELOW SMALL CRAFT LATER WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS WILL REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD TOTAL 1
TO 2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. MUCH OF THE RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MINOR URBAN AND
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MET/DW
NEAR TERM...MET/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...
MARINE...MET/DW
HYDROLOGY...MET/DW










000
FXUS61 KOKX 210010
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
710 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY
STATIONARY TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES MONDAY
AFTERNOON...AND REMAINS SOUTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. A STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ENDING EARLY CHRISTMAS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL AFFECT THE
REGION NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES WERE OCCURRING ACROSS SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT
AND EASTERN SUFFOLK COUNTY WITH JUST A DUSTING IN SOME LOCATIONS
OF CONNECTICUT...MAINLY THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FORECAST ON TRACK.

CLOUD COVER AND A NLY FLOW TODAY KEPT TEMPS IN CHECK WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO THE LOWER 30S. THE LAST
DAY OF AUTUMN WILL FINISH AS ONE OF THE COLDEST. WINTER SOLSTICE
IS 603 PM SUNDAY EVENING.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY
THIS EVENING. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE COLD AIR SUPPLY WITH LIGHT
NLY WINDS. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO REMAIN TRAPPED BENEATH A
STRONG INVERSION AT APPROXIMATELY 900 MB. THUS...LOOKING AT
CONTINUED CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING
TOO FAST WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 20S WELL INLAND TO AROUND
30 AT THE COAST.

A SHORT WAVE TROF OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. THIS COUPLED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH LIFT FOR SNOW FLURRIES OR VERY
LIGHT SNOW...WITH THE BEST CHANCE BEING ACROSS EASTERN LI AND SE
CT. LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS FORECAST. THERE COULD ALSO
BE SOME RAIN MIXED IN AND/OR FREEZING RAIN WITH LACK A ICE
CRYSTALS IN THE CLOUD BEARING LAYER. OFTEN THOUGH ALONG THE
COAST...SEA SALT CAN LOWER THE ACTIVATION TEMP OF ICE NUCLEI.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MORNING FLURRIES AND/OR SPRINKLES WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTIAL
CLEARING BY AFT AS SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN ALOFT. FAR
EASTERN LI AND SE CT COULD STAY MOSTLY CLOUDY ALL DAY DUE TO
DEEPER MOISTURE IN PLACE BENEATH AN INVERSION.

HIGHS ON SUN WILL APPROACH 40 ALONG THE COAST,,,BUT A FEW DEGREES
COOLER INLAND. THIS COULD VARY BASED ON THE EXTENT OF CLEARING.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...WITH LOW-LEVEL NLY WINDS GRADUALLY VEERING SUN NIGHT.
LOWS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE 20S SUN NIGHT...BUT THE EXTENT OF
THE CLOUD COVER REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AS THE FLOW BECOMES
MORE NE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST
MONDAY...AND WILL BE ON A DEVELOPING WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS LOW
REMAINS WEAK AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES SLOWLY NORTH MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. MEANWHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND INTO SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA WEAKENS. AT THE UPPER LEVELS A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH DEVELOPS
MONDAY FRONT CENTRAL CANADA INTO MEXICO WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENING IN THE UPPER MIDWEST. DURING WEDNESDAY THE TROUGH BECOMES
NEGATIVE WITH THE LOW MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE
WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. SO WITH WEAK LIFT DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT WILL
KEEP CHANCE POPS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY. GUIDANCE IS NO
LONGER DEEPENING WITH COASTAL LOW AND KEEP THE LOW OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AS THE PRIMARY LOW WITH THE NEGATIVE TROUGH. AS THE LOWS COLD
FRONT APPROACHES LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...A STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET TO NEAR 70 KT DEVELOPS. WITH A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW
LIMITING MIXING STRONG GUSTY WIND WILL BE LIMITED. HOWEVER THE LOW
LEVEL JET WILL PROVIDE STRONG LIFT DURING WEDNESDAY AND PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. WARMING OCCURS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH ALL LIQUID DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. BEFORE
THAT...MONDAY NIGHT...SOME LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE
INLAND...HOWEVER NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. THE THERMAL PROFILE
OF THE GFS WAS SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE 20/00Z ECMWF AND USED A
BLEND FOR P-TYPE.

AS THE PARENT LOW MOVES INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION AFTER 05Z INTO
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...PASSING JUST EAST OF THE AREA AROUND 12Z
THURSDAY. WITH TIMING CONSISTENCY HAVE KEPT THE LIKELY AND
CATEGORICAL POPS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

IN THE COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY AND WITH CYCLONIC WEST
TO NORTHWEST FLOW...STRONG AND GUSTY WIND WILL BE LIKELY. HAVE KEPT
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR NOW...HOWEVER GUSTS COULD BE CLOSE TO 45
KT AT TIMES THURSDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS. THEN FOR
NEXT WEEKEND ANOTHER INLAND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
AND DEPARTS EARLY IN THE WEEK.

MAINLY MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 2-3 KFT. NYC METRO TERMINALS HAVE BEEN
HOLDING ON TO LOW END VFR CIGS LAST FEW HOURS...BUT ARE SURROUNDED
BY MVFR CIGS AND WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FEEL THEY
WILL DROP BETWEEN 3Z AND 6Z. LIGHT SNOW AND/OR FLURRIES POSSIBLE
FOR KGON/KISP/KBDR TONIGHT...BUT NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT VSBY AND
CHC`S AREN`T HIGH ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN IN TAFS.

MAY BE TOO OPTIMISTIC WITH CIGS IN NYC METRO AT 12Z AND MVFR COULD
LINGER INTO THE AFTN.

LIGHT AND VRB WINDS OVERNIGHT...THEN COULD BACK 20-30 DEGREES MORE
TO THE LEFT OF 00Z FORECAST DURING THE DAY SUN.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.SUN NIGHT...VFR.
.MON-MON NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN E FLOW. CHC OF RAIN.
.TUE-TUE NIGHT...IFR LIKELY IN RAIN...CIGS AND VSBYS. E WINDS 10-20
KT...BECOMING SE.
.WED...HIGH IMPACT EVENT POSSIBLE...IFR LIKELY WITH HEAVY RAIN AND
GUSTY SE WINDS 25KT+ SHIFTING TO SW LATE WED.
.THU...SUB VFR EARLY IN SHOWERS...THEN VFR WITH GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS
20-25 KT G40 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECAST ON TRACK...NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING NORTH OF THE WATERS...CAN EXPECT NORTH
WINDS 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH SEAS GENERALLY
1-2 FT ON THE OCEAN OR 1 FT OR LESS ON ALL OTHER WATERS.

A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS...WITH SEAS ALSO
REMAINING BELOW 5 FT. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA
WATERS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW. SMALL CRAFT WIND
AND SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT...AND ACROSS ALL THE WATERS WEDNESDAY. THEN IN THE COLDER AIR
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY WIND GUSTS WILL BE GALE FORCE ACROSS
ALL THE WATERS AND REMAIN INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTS DIMINISHING
TOWARD FRIDAY MORNING...WITH GUSTS BELOW SMALL CRAFT LATER WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS WILL REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD TOTAL 1
TO 2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. MUCH OF THE RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MINOR URBAN AND
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MET/DW
NEAR TERM...MET/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...
MARINE...MET/DW
HYDROLOGY...MET/DW











000
FXUS61 KALY 210002
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
702 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...WHILE WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASS SOUTH OF THE
REGION. THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT
SNOW TO THE SOUTHERN TACONICS AND THE BERKSHIRES SOUTH IN WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.  UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH A PERIOD OF LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 624 PM EST...

VARIABLE CLOUDINESS CONTINUES EARLY THIS EVENING WITH A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL LOW PASSING OVER ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND. PARTLY CLOUDY
TO MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE LAKE GEORGE
REGION...SRN DACKS...AND SRN VT...WHILE CLOUDY OR MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS PERSIST FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY...CAPITAL REGION...AND
THE BERKSHIRES SOUTH. THE LIGHT SNOW DUE TO THE VORTICITY
ADVECTION MAY DEVELOP OVER NW CT...AND THE SRN TACONICS BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. SOME TWEAKING OF THE POPS WAS DONE IN THE HOURLIES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL BE
THE FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW TO BACK IN ACROSS THE
BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD HILLS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT TEMPS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO DROP AS MUCH AS THEY DID LAST NIGHT. EXPECT LOW TEMPS
TO RANGE FROM THE MID TEENS NORTHWEST TO MID 20S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LINGERING SNOW WILL END ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD
HILLS BY MID DAY SUNDAY. ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE VERY LIGHT WITH
A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH UP TO AN INCH TOTAL. THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY IS EXPECTED TO BE CLOUDY ACROSS THE FA AS LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS
REMAIN IN PLACE TRAPPING MOISTURE BENEATH THEM. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 30S
SOUTHEAST.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
AS MOISTURE STARTS TO LIFT NORTHWARD FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
ON MONDAY AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. WHILE IT WILL BE DRY...CLOUDS WILL BE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S AND
HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE 30S.

ON MONDAY NIGHT MOISTURE STARTS TO OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA AS
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA WITH
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST.
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FA WITH A PLETHORA OF
PCPN TYPES MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA WITH
MAINLY SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA. PCPN SHOULD START
AS SNOW IN ALL AREAS BEFORE THE TRANSITION OCCURS DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA.
PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT SOME LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET MIXING IN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FA. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE TRICKY WITH NOT MUCH OF A DROP FROM
DAYTIME HIGHS ON MONDAY. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE MID
20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...PUNCTUATED BY A STRONG STORM SYSTEM TRACKING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE MAIN STORM
SYSTEM...A PERSISTENT MOIST FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC AND OVERRUNNING
WILL ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TUE AND TUE
NT. A SURGE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF A LEAD UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE
SHOULD ALLOW FOR A GREATER AREAL COVERAGE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION FOR
TUESDAY...ESP IN THE MORNING. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THAT THE
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION WOULD BE LIGHT SNOW OR A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF
SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO MAINLY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE BY LATE TUESDAY IN
MOST AREAS. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING
RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD LINGER INTO LATE TUE OR TUE EVE
ACROSS SOME SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE LAKE GEORGE REGION AND SOUTHERN
VT...AND POSSIBLY EASTERN BERKSHIRE CO. EXPECT TEMPS TO SLOWLY RISE
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S BY LATE TUESDAY. FOR TUE NT...MOST TEMPS
SHOULD HOLD NEARLY STEADY IN THE 30S.

THE MAIN STORM SHOULD IMPACT THE REGION WED INTO WED NT...ALTHOUGH
TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN THE LONG TERM GUIDANCE...AND THE
HANDLING OF POTENTIAL SFC WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG A COLD/OCCLUDED
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A NARROW COLD FRONTAL RAIN BAND
WILL LIKELY IMMEDIATELY PRECEDE/ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...AND COULD EVEN
CONTAIN SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER. MOST LONG TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT THIS FRONT PASSES THROUGH BETWEEN 00Z-06Z/THU. THE 12Z/20 ECMWF
SEEMS TO BE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. IN FACT...IT ACTUALLY ALLOWS COLDER AIR TO MOVE INTO
PORTIONS OF THE REGION AS THE TRAILING STRATIFORM PORTION OF THE
NARROW COLD FRONTAL BAND PASSES THROUGH...WITH SOME SUGGESTION OF
PRECIP ENDING AS SNOW...AT LEAST ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE
GFS/GEFS ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND LESS EMPHATIC WITH WAVE
DEVELOPMENT AND ANY SNOW/MIXED PRECIP. AT THIS TIME...HAVE INDICATED
SOME TRANSITION LATE AT NIGHT TO RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN VALLEYS...AND
MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

RAINFALL COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY WED-WED NT...WITH TOTAL QPF RANGING
FROM 0.75-1.5 INCHES...ALTHOUGH HIGHER AMTS WOULD BE POSSIBLE...ESP
SHOULD ANY WAVE DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND SLOW DOWN THE FORWARD
MOTION OF ANY FRONTAL RAIN BAND. THIS HEAVY RAINFALL...COMBINED WITH
SNOWMELT DUE TO STRONG WINDS AND MILD TEMPERATURES/HIGH
DEWPOINTS...COULD LEAD TO SOME HYDROLOGIC ISSUES INCLUDING MINOR
FLOODING. SEE THE HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS.

WINDS WILL ALSO BE QUITE STRONG ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS/CATSKILLS...AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WHERE GUSTS OF
30-40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR EVEN HIGHER
GUSTS. IN VALLEYS...BOUNDARY LAYER STABILITY MAY LIMIT HOW MUCH WIND
REACHES THE SURFACE...BUT WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO ASSESS THIS CLOSER
TO THE EVENT. SOME STRONGER GUSTS COULD ALSO OCCUR WITHIN ANY TALLER
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS AHEAD OF AND WITH THE ACTUAL FRONT AS WELL. MAX
TEMPS ON WED WILL BE TRICKY...AS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT RAPID
WARMING WELL INTO THE 50S COULD OCCUR AS A WARM FRONT TRANSLATES
NORTHWARD. THIS POTENTIAL WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT. FOR WED NT/THU AM...TEMPS SHOULD EVENTUALLY FALL
BACK INTO THE 30S IN VALLEYS...AND POSSIBLY SOME UPPER 20S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

IN THE WAKE OF THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM...WINDY AND MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR THURSDAY...WITH SNOW SHOWERS PREVALENT
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90.
WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AS WELL. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH DAYTIME MAXES REACHING THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

RISING HEIGHTS IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
DECREASING TREND IN AREAL COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR THU NT AND
ESP FRI. THU NT/FRI AM MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 20S TO AROUND
30...WITH MAX TEMPS FRI MAINLY IN THE LOWER 40S IN VALLEYS AND 30S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS FOR FRI NT/SAT AM
FALLING INTO THE 20S AND LOWER 30S. AND ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM COULD
BRING SOME RAIN OR SNOW TO THE REGION BY NEXT WEEKEND...WITH MAX
TEMPS REACHING 35-40 IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 30S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT...AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO
SUNDAY LATE MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH
AND WEST LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO TOMORROW NIGHT.

EXPECT VFR/HIGH MVFR CONDITIONS FOR KALB/KGFL/KPOU TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS BEING NEAR KALB/KALB BTWN
10Z-18Z. SOME LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL
BE IN THE VICINITY OF KPOU BTWN 06Z-14Z. LATER TAFS MAY HAVE TO
ADD TEMPO GROUPS. THE BEST CHC OF LIGHT SNOW MOVING INTO A
TERMINAL SITE WILL BE AT KPSF. MVFR CIGS WILL LOWER POTENTIALLY TO
IFR LEVELS WITH VSBYS ALSO IN THE IFR RANGE BTWN 09Z-15Z. EXPECT
MVFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST AT KPSF INTO THE AFTERNOON.
KALB/KPOU/KGFL WILL TREND TO VFR CIGS AFTER 18Z/SUN.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT AT 4 KTS OR LESS. EXPECT LIGHT
N TO NW WINDS AT 4 KTS OR LESS LATE TOMORROW MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK... SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHSN...FZRA...SLEET.
TUESDAY:MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY
RA...SN...FZRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...RA.
CHRISTMAS DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 0.75 INCH TO 1.5 INCHES ARE LIKELY ALONG WITH
SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT WHICH RAISES THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING
AND SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES OF LARGER STEM RIVERS. MMEFS
GUIDANCE POINTS TO MANY POINTS AT LEAST REACHING ACTION STAGE
AND HAS GVVN6 HAVING A HIGH PROBABILITY FROM THE GEFS AND NAEFS
GUIDANCE OF REACHING MINOR FLOOD STAGE ON CHRISTMAS DAY. TOO EARLY
TO ISSUE ANY FLOOD WATCHES...HOWEVER WILL MENTION IN THE HWO AT
THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11







000
FXUS61 KALY 210002
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
702 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...WHILE WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASS SOUTH OF THE
REGION. THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT
SNOW TO THE SOUTHERN TACONICS AND THE BERKSHIRES SOUTH IN WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.  UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH A PERIOD OF LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 624 PM EST...

VARIABLE CLOUDINESS CONTINUES EARLY THIS EVENING WITH A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL LOW PASSING OVER ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND. PARTLY CLOUDY
TO MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE LAKE GEORGE
REGION...SRN DACKS...AND SRN VT...WHILE CLOUDY OR MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS PERSIST FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY...CAPITAL REGION...AND
THE BERKSHIRES SOUTH. THE LIGHT SNOW DUE TO THE VORTICITY
ADVECTION MAY DEVELOP OVER NW CT...AND THE SRN TACONICS BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. SOME TWEAKING OF THE POPS WAS DONE IN THE HOURLIES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL BE
THE FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW TO BACK IN ACROSS THE
BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD HILLS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT TEMPS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO DROP AS MUCH AS THEY DID LAST NIGHT. EXPECT LOW TEMPS
TO RANGE FROM THE MID TEENS NORTHWEST TO MID 20S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LINGERING SNOW WILL END ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD
HILLS BY MID DAY SUNDAY. ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE VERY LIGHT WITH
A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH UP TO AN INCH TOTAL. THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY IS EXPECTED TO BE CLOUDY ACROSS THE FA AS LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS
REMAIN IN PLACE TRAPPING MOISTURE BENEATH THEM. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 30S
SOUTHEAST.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
AS MOISTURE STARTS TO LIFT NORTHWARD FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
ON MONDAY AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. WHILE IT WILL BE DRY...CLOUDS WILL BE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S AND
HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE 30S.

ON MONDAY NIGHT MOISTURE STARTS TO OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA AS
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA WITH
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST.
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FA WITH A PLETHORA OF
PCPN TYPES MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA WITH
MAINLY SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA. PCPN SHOULD START
AS SNOW IN ALL AREAS BEFORE THE TRANSITION OCCURS DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA.
PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT SOME LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET MIXING IN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FA. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE TRICKY WITH NOT MUCH OF A DROP FROM
DAYTIME HIGHS ON MONDAY. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE MID
20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...PUNCTUATED BY A STRONG STORM SYSTEM TRACKING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE MAIN STORM
SYSTEM...A PERSISTENT MOIST FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC AND OVERRUNNING
WILL ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TUE AND TUE
NT. A SURGE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF A LEAD UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE
SHOULD ALLOW FOR A GREATER AREAL COVERAGE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION FOR
TUESDAY...ESP IN THE MORNING. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THAT THE
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION WOULD BE LIGHT SNOW OR A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF
SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO MAINLY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE BY LATE TUESDAY IN
MOST AREAS. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING
RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD LINGER INTO LATE TUE OR TUE EVE
ACROSS SOME SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE LAKE GEORGE REGION AND SOUTHERN
VT...AND POSSIBLY EASTERN BERKSHIRE CO. EXPECT TEMPS TO SLOWLY RISE
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S BY LATE TUESDAY. FOR TUE NT...MOST TEMPS
SHOULD HOLD NEARLY STEADY IN THE 30S.

THE MAIN STORM SHOULD IMPACT THE REGION WED INTO WED NT...ALTHOUGH
TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN THE LONG TERM GUIDANCE...AND THE
HANDLING OF POTENTIAL SFC WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG A COLD/OCCLUDED
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A NARROW COLD FRONTAL RAIN BAND
WILL LIKELY IMMEDIATELY PRECEDE/ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...AND COULD EVEN
CONTAIN SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER. MOST LONG TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT THIS FRONT PASSES THROUGH BETWEEN 00Z-06Z/THU. THE 12Z/20 ECMWF
SEEMS TO BE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. IN FACT...IT ACTUALLY ALLOWS COLDER AIR TO MOVE INTO
PORTIONS OF THE REGION AS THE TRAILING STRATIFORM PORTION OF THE
NARROW COLD FRONTAL BAND PASSES THROUGH...WITH SOME SUGGESTION OF
PRECIP ENDING AS SNOW...AT LEAST ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE
GFS/GEFS ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND LESS EMPHATIC WITH WAVE
DEVELOPMENT AND ANY SNOW/MIXED PRECIP. AT THIS TIME...HAVE INDICATED
SOME TRANSITION LATE AT NIGHT TO RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN VALLEYS...AND
MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

RAINFALL COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY WED-WED NT...WITH TOTAL QPF RANGING
FROM 0.75-1.5 INCHES...ALTHOUGH HIGHER AMTS WOULD BE POSSIBLE...ESP
SHOULD ANY WAVE DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND SLOW DOWN THE FORWARD
MOTION OF ANY FRONTAL RAIN BAND. THIS HEAVY RAINFALL...COMBINED WITH
SNOWMELT DUE TO STRONG WINDS AND MILD TEMPERATURES/HIGH
DEWPOINTS...COULD LEAD TO SOME HYDROLOGIC ISSUES INCLUDING MINOR
FLOODING. SEE THE HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS.

WINDS WILL ALSO BE QUITE STRONG ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS/CATSKILLS...AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WHERE GUSTS OF
30-40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR EVEN HIGHER
GUSTS. IN VALLEYS...BOUNDARY LAYER STABILITY MAY LIMIT HOW MUCH WIND
REACHES THE SURFACE...BUT WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO ASSESS THIS CLOSER
TO THE EVENT. SOME STRONGER GUSTS COULD ALSO OCCUR WITHIN ANY TALLER
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS AHEAD OF AND WITH THE ACTUAL FRONT AS WELL. MAX
TEMPS ON WED WILL BE TRICKY...AS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT RAPID
WARMING WELL INTO THE 50S COULD OCCUR AS A WARM FRONT TRANSLATES
NORTHWARD. THIS POTENTIAL WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT. FOR WED NT/THU AM...TEMPS SHOULD EVENTUALLY FALL
BACK INTO THE 30S IN VALLEYS...AND POSSIBLY SOME UPPER 20S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

IN THE WAKE OF THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM...WINDY AND MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR THURSDAY...WITH SNOW SHOWERS PREVALENT
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90.
WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AS WELL. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH DAYTIME MAXES REACHING THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

RISING HEIGHTS IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
DECREASING TREND IN AREAL COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR THU NT AND
ESP FRI. THU NT/FRI AM MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 20S TO AROUND
30...WITH MAX TEMPS FRI MAINLY IN THE LOWER 40S IN VALLEYS AND 30S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS FOR FRI NT/SAT AM
FALLING INTO THE 20S AND LOWER 30S. AND ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM COULD
BRING SOME RAIN OR SNOW TO THE REGION BY NEXT WEEKEND...WITH MAX
TEMPS REACHING 35-40 IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 30S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT...AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO
SUNDAY LATE MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH
AND WEST LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO TOMORROW NIGHT.

EXPECT VFR/HIGH MVFR CONDITIONS FOR KALB/KGFL/KPOU TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS BEING NEAR KALB/KALB BTWN
10Z-18Z. SOME LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL
BE IN THE VICINITY OF KPOU BTWN 06Z-14Z. LATER TAFS MAY HAVE TO
ADD TEMPO GROUPS. THE BEST CHC OF LIGHT SNOW MOVING INTO A
TERMINAL SITE WILL BE AT KPSF. MVFR CIGS WILL LOWER POTENTIALLY TO
IFR LEVELS WITH VSBYS ALSO IN THE IFR RANGE BTWN 09Z-15Z. EXPECT
MVFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST AT KPSF INTO THE AFTERNOON.
KALB/KPOU/KGFL WILL TREND TO VFR CIGS AFTER 18Z/SUN.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT AT 4 KTS OR LESS. EXPECT LIGHT
N TO NW WINDS AT 4 KTS OR LESS LATE TOMORROW MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK... SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHSN...FZRA...SLEET.
TUESDAY:MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY
RA...SN...FZRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...RA.
CHRISTMAS DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 0.75 INCH TO 1.5 INCHES ARE LIKELY ALONG WITH
SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT WHICH RAISES THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING
AND SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES OF LARGER STEM RIVERS. MMEFS
GUIDANCE POINTS TO MANY POINTS AT LEAST REACHING ACTION STAGE
AND HAS GVVN6 HAVING A HIGH PROBABILITY FROM THE GEFS AND NAEFS
GUIDANCE OF REACHING MINOR FLOOD STAGE ON CHRISTMAS DAY. TOO EARLY
TO ISSUE ANY FLOOD WATCHES...HOWEVER WILL MENTION IN THE HWO AT
THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11








000
FXUS61 KBOX 202357
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
657 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH SUN.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND BRINGING ANOTHER
PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. A MUCH STRONGER
STORM PASSING WEST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING HEAVY
RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS AND COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS TO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRY BUT VERY WINDY CONDITIONS
FOLLOW FOR CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...

630 PM UPDATE...
COASTAL BOUNDARY ALONG EAST COASTAL MASS. WINDS ARE EAST-NORTHEAST
AT MARSHFIELD...HYANNIS AND PROVINCETOWN. WINDS ARE NORTH TO
NORTHWEST AT BOSTON...PLYMOUTH AIRPORT...OTIS ANG BASE. DEWPOINTS
ARE IN THE 30S EAST OF THE BOUNDARY AND 20S TO THE WEST. THE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS LINE AND MOIST INFLOW OFF THE OCEAN ARE
SERVING TO MAINTAIN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FROM SOUTH BOSTON TO THE
CAPE AND ISLANDS. THE WHOLE AREA IS MOVING WEST AND WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHEAST MASS AND RI EARLY TONIGHT.

REPORT OF SNOW AT BEVERLY MASS EARLIER THIS EVENING. THERE WASN/T
MUCH TO SPEAK OF ON THE BOX RADAR...BUT TERMINAL DOPPLER A FEW
MILES FARTHER NORTH WAS ABLE TO SEE SOME LIGHT ECHOES AT THE TIME.
THESE HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED.

WE HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST MOSTLY INTACT FROM 4 PM. THE MOIST FLOW
WILL KEEP CLOUDS OVERHEAD. RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH OF BOSTON WILL
SPREAD WEST OVERNIGHT. LINGERING CHANCE THAT ADDITIONAL SNOW
SHOWERS MOVE ASHORE THROUGH ESSEX COUNTY LATER IN THE NIGHT BUT
LOW CONFIDENCE ON THAT. ALSO LOW CONFIDENCE ON HOW MUCH REACHES
THE CT VALLEY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE TO A
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS WILL PROVIDE A
FOCUS FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS
BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT.  WHILE SNOW
SHOWERS MAY REACH INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT...A COASTAL FRONT
WILL DEVELOP...AIDING IN FOCUSING SHOWERS ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
MASSACHUSETTS.

SNOW SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT AS THE LOW LEVELS
MOISTEN UP A BIT MORE. LOOKS LIKE IT WILL LIKELY BE WARM ENOUGH
ACROSS THE CAPE AND SOUTHEASTERN PLYMOUTH COUNTY FOR SHOWERS TO BE
RAIN RATHER THAN SNOW.

OVERALL...EXPECTING 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW AT MOST ACROSS EASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND.  THERE ARE SEVERAL POTENTIAL PLACES
WHERE LOCALIZED SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS /POSSIBLY UP TO 2-4 INCHES/
ARE POSSIBLE.  LOOKING AT THE HIGH RES MODELS...EITHER ACROSS ESSEX
COUNTY AND CAPE ANN...EASTERN NORFOLK COUNTY INTO NORTHERN PLYMOUTH
COUNTY...OR BOTH. THEN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WORCESTER COUNTY AND
PROVIDENCE COUNTY MAY SEE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS GIVEN THE UPSLOPE
COMPONENT OF THE WINDS.

SOME OF THE HIGH RES MODELS HAVE A DECENT CLIP OF QPF INTO ESSEX
COUNTY...WHILE OTHERS HAVE NOTHING IN THE SAME AREA.  FOR NORFOLK
AND PLYMOUTH COUNTY...WE MAY SEE A BIT OF OCEAN ENHANCEMENT THAT
RAISES SNOW AMOUNTS IN THOSE AREAS.  DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY AND THE
LOCALIZED NATURE OF THE POTENTIAL HIGHER AMOUNTS...AM OPTING NOT TO
ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. INSTEAD...REISSUED THE SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT FOR SNOW. ANYONE OUT AND ABOUT THIS EVENING IN
EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS WILL WANT TO USE CAUTION AS THERE MAY BE
SLIPPERY PATCHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING HOURS...THEN TAPER
OFF AS INVERTED TROUGH PULLS AWAY FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN.  MOST LIKELY AREAS FOR CONTINUING
SHOWERS WILL BE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EAST COAST OF MASSACHUSETTS.

AS THE DAY GOES ON...EXPECT A SLOW DRYING TREND AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION.  CLOUDS WILL STICK AROUND WITH TEMPS
GENERALLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BIG PICTURE... SHORTWAVE ENTERING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST CROSSES THE
ROCKIES OVER THE WEEKEND DRIVEN BY A 160-KNOT JET.  THIS DIGS A
SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS MONDAY-TUESDAY WHILE PACIFIC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. THIS IN TURN WILL ALLOW AN
UPPER RIDGE TO BUILD ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST AND SLOWLY SHIFT EAST
OF THE COAST.  THE JET ENERGY WORKS ITS WAY AROUND THE BASE OF THE
PLAINS TROUGH AND MOVES UP THE APPALACHANS MIDWEEK.  THIS SUPPORTS A
TRANSITION OF THE TROUGH TO NEGATIVE TILT AND SLOWER MOVEMENT...WITH
WARM MOIST AIR FOR THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE TROUGH AXIS SWINGS OVER
NEW ENGLAND CHRISTMAS DAY FOLLOWED BY A WEAK RIDGE. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE MOVES ASHORE FROM THE PACIFIC MIDWEEK AND MOVES ACROSS THE
PLAINS BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND APPROACHES THE NORTHEAST USA
SATURDAY.

THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN DETAILS AMONG THE LONG RANGE MODELS...BUT
ALL SHOW A SIMILAR SCENARIO BOTH FOR THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM AND THE END
OF WEEK SYSTEM.  WE USED A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF.

THE DAILIES...

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY... HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NORTH OF THE REGION
BRINGING A MOIST EAST FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. UPPER
PATTERN SHOWS WEAK RIDGING AS THE PLAINS TROUGH DIGS...BUT SURFACE
FIELDS SUGGEST A LINGERING INVERTED TROUGH ALONG OR JUST OFFSHORE.
THIS SHOULD MAINTAIN CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS. COULD BE SOME DRIZZLE OR
FLURRIES NEAR THE EAST COAST BUT SUPPORTING LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS
LACKING SO PCPN SHOULD BE LIMITED.

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY... LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG A STALLED WARM
FRONT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. AS THE LOW DEVELOPS...IT BRINGS
AN INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT AGAINST HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
THROUGH THE MARITIMES. THE RESULT WILL BE A STRENGTHENING LOW
LEVEL EAST- SOUTHEAST JET. THIS WILL INCREASE THE MOIST INFLOW
OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ALSO...AS THE JET CONVERGES ON THE
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH IT WILL GENERATE INCREASED LOW LEVEL LIFT
AND INCREASE THE CHANCE OF PCPN. WE WILL HAVE CLOUDS AND CHANCE
POPS. TEMPS IN NORTHWEST MASS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH SO THAT THERE
MAY BE A MIX OF PCPN TYPES DURING THE MORNING.

TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY... PLAINS UPPER TROUGH DIGS DEEPER AND MOVES
EAST...PUSHING THE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR EAST. ALSO...THE STRONG UPPER
SOUTHWEST JET MOVES UP OVER THE EASTERN USA. THIS SETUP WILL TAKE
THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW UP THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
SECONDARY LOWS FORMING ON THE SYSTEM COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. A SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL JET
WILL MOVE UP THE ATLANTIC COAST ON WEDNESDAY AND OVER THE TOP OF THE
EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW AT THE SURFACE. THE RESULT WILL BE PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL LIFT THE GENERATE PCPN.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO EXCEED 1.5 INCHES...WHICH
IS 3 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR DECEMBER.  THIS MEANS A LOT OF
WATER AVAILABLE AS PCPN. TEMPERATURE PROFILES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING
SO PTYPE SHOULD BE RAIN. MODEL QPF SHOWS POTENTIAL RAINFALL OF OVER
2 INCHES. THIS WOULD SUGGEST POTENTIAL URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING
ISSUES WEDNESDAY.

STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE ECMWF SHOWS EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS 30-35 KNOTS ALONG HE
EAST MASS COAST AT 1000 MB. THEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT WINDS AT 925 MB
INCREASE TO 60-75 KNOTS AND MOVE ACROSS COASTAL RI AND SOUTHEAST
MASS. STRONG DOWNPOURS MAY OVERCOME THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION AND
BRING STRONG GUSTS OF AT LEAST 30-40 KNOTS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
SOUTH COAST. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED IN SOME AREAS.

MAINTAINED A LIMITED MENTION OF THUNDER...AS CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS
ARE MARGINAL...SI VALUES WILL BE JUST ABOVE ZERO AND K INDEX WILL BE
IN THE LOW 30S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

UPPER LOW WILL SWING THE SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO WEST AND PCPN
SHOULD COME TO AN END AROUND THE TIME THAT SANTA ARRIVES.

CHRISTMAS DAY... WEST WINDS WILL BRING A DRYING OF THE AIRMASS
DURING THE DAY. SO THE TREND SHOULD BE TO AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING.
SUFFICIENT COLD ADVECTION AT ALL LEVELS THURSDAY WILL ALLOW SOME
MIXING.  WINDS IN THE SFC-850 MB LAYER WILL BE 30-40 KNOTS AND
POSSIBLY A LITTLE HIGHER...WHICH WOULD REQUIRE A WIND ADVISORY FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY
AND BRING A SUNNY DAY. THE NEXT PACIFIC SHORTWAVE APPROACHES
SATURDAY AND SHOULD BRING INCREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST ALONG
WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND AT
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MOVING
WEST OFF THE OCEAN INTO SOUTHEASTERN MASS. THESE WILL SPREAD
FARTHER WEST INTO RI/CENTRAL MASS/NORTHEAST CT. LOCAL IFR
CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST SHOWERS.

WINDS ARE ENE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SOUTHEAST MASS COAST WITH NORTH
TO NORTHWEST WINDS ELSEWHERE. THIS WINDSHIFT MAY NUDGE FARTHER
WEST WITH THE SHOWERS EARLY TONIGHT.

MVFR CIGS MAY REACH THE CT VALLEY LATE TONIGHT BUT LOW CONFIDENCE
ABOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION IN VSBY THERE.

MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER MOST AREA ON SUNDAY. ANY CIGS THAT RISE
ABOVE MVFR SHOULD ONLY REACH AROUND 4000 FEET.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. FLURRIES AND SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGH 06Z WITH POTENTIAL FOR WINDSHIFT TO 040 DURING
THIS TIME.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...MVFR CIGS CONTINUE IN RI/EASTERN MASS IN
MARINE EAST FLOW. VFR IN THE WEST.

TUESDAY...VFR WITH SCATTERED MVFR IN ANY RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS LOWERING TO IFR IN RAIN/HEAVY RAIN. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EAST-SOUTHEST
SURFACE WINDS MAY GUST TO 35 KNOTS ALONG THE EAST MASSACHUSETTS
COAST. WINDS AT 2000 FEET AGL WILL REACH 50-60 KNOTS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY NIGHT CREATING LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONCERNS.

CHRISTMAS DAY...WEST WIND GUSTING 30-40 KNOTS. CONDITIONS IMPROVING
TO VFR AS THE WIND BRINGS IN COOLER DRIER AIR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS QUEBEC WILL RESULT IN
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS WITH SEAS BETWEEN 2 AND 4 FEET ARE
EXPECTED FOR MOST WATERS...SO NO HEADLINES PLANNED.

THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY THAT A BRIEF SURGE OF NORTHEAST WIND
GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS WITH MARGINAL 5 FOOT SEAS COULD AFFECT OUR
NORTHERN WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUN MORNING...BUT NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO ISSUE ANY HEADLINES AT THIS POINT.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING AROUND 15
KNOTS OR LESS.  SEAS WILL HOLD AROUND 3-4 FEET.

TUESDAY... INCREASING EAST WINDS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5-6 FEET ON THE EXPOSED WATERS.  A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

WEDNESDAY...RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES PRODUCING POOR VISIBILITY.
INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS 20-25 SUSTAINED AND 40 KNOT GUSTS.  WINDS
SHOULD SHIFT TO SOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SOUTHWEST TOWARD THURSDAY
MORNING. RAIN WILL TAPER OFF WITH THE WIND SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST. SEAS
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD WITH 5-10 FEET HEIGHTS ON THE EXPOSED WATERS.
A GALE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

CHRISTMAS DAY... WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST 35-40
KNOTS...SO A GALE WARNING MAY CONTINUE TO BE NEEDED. SEAS OF 10-15
FEET ARE POSSIBLE ON THE EXPOSED WATERS...AND 5 FEET IS POSSIBLE ON
SOME OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL OCCUR
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. BREAKING IT DOWN...ON TUESDAY HIGH TIDE
AT BOSTON WILL BE 11.6 FT. THERE WILL BE EAST WINDS DURING THIS
HIGH TIDE ALLOWING FOR MINOR SPLASHOVER ALONG THE MASS COAST. IF
WIND GUSTS INCREASE THEN COULD POSSIBLE SEE MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING.

ON WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL SWITCH TO A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DURING
THE DAY AND INCREASE QUICKLY DUE TO THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE IN BOSTON IS 11.7 FT...AND AN
APPRECIABLE EAST OR SOUTHEAST WIND SHOULD PUSH LEVELS HIGHER THAN ON
TUESDAY.  THIS WOULD PROBABLY BE THE BEST CHACNE OF MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING ALONG THE EAST COAST.

THE WEDNESDAY EVENING HIGH TIDE WILL BE A LITTLE LOWER...BUT THE
WIND BECOMES SOUTH WITH 50-60 KNOTS AT 2000 FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE
AVAILABLE TO BE BROUGHT DOWN IN GUSTS. HIGH TIDE IN PROVIDENCE WILL
BE 5.2 FT. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING COULD OCCUR ALONG THE SOUTH
COASTS OF RI AND MASS...AND COULD BE CHANNELED IN NORTH-SOUTH AXIS
BAYS SUCH AS NARRAGANSETT BAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/RLG
NEAR TERM...WTB/RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/RLG
MARINE...WTB/RLG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KBOX 202357
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
657 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH SUN.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND BRINGING ANOTHER
PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. A MUCH STRONGER
STORM PASSING WEST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING HEAVY
RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS AND COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS TO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRY BUT VERY WINDY CONDITIONS
FOLLOW FOR CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...

630 PM UPDATE...
COASTAL BOUNDARY ALONG EAST COASTAL MASS. WINDS ARE EAST-NORTHEAST
AT MARSHFIELD...HYANNIS AND PROVINCETOWN. WINDS ARE NORTH TO
NORTHWEST AT BOSTON...PLYMOUTH AIRPORT...OTIS ANG BASE. DEWPOINTS
ARE IN THE 30S EAST OF THE BOUNDARY AND 20S TO THE WEST. THE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS LINE AND MOIST INFLOW OFF THE OCEAN ARE
SERVING TO MAINTAIN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FROM SOUTH BOSTON TO THE
CAPE AND ISLANDS. THE WHOLE AREA IS MOVING WEST AND WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHEAST MASS AND RI EARLY TONIGHT.

REPORT OF SNOW AT BEVERLY MASS EARLIER THIS EVENING. THERE WASN/T
MUCH TO SPEAK OF ON THE BOX RADAR...BUT TERMINAL DOPPLER A FEW
MILES FARTHER NORTH WAS ABLE TO SEE SOME LIGHT ECHOES AT THE TIME.
THESE HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED.

WE HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST MOSTLY INTACT FROM 4 PM. THE MOIST FLOW
WILL KEEP CLOUDS OVERHEAD. RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH OF BOSTON WILL
SPREAD WEST OVERNIGHT. LINGERING CHANCE THAT ADDITIONAL SNOW
SHOWERS MOVE ASHORE THROUGH ESSEX COUNTY LATER IN THE NIGHT BUT
LOW CONFIDENCE ON THAT. ALSO LOW CONFIDENCE ON HOW MUCH REACHES
THE CT VALLEY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE TO A
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS WILL PROVIDE A
FOCUS FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS
BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT.  WHILE SNOW
SHOWERS MAY REACH INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT...A COASTAL FRONT
WILL DEVELOP...AIDING IN FOCUSING SHOWERS ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
MASSACHUSETTS.

SNOW SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT AS THE LOW LEVELS
MOISTEN UP A BIT MORE. LOOKS LIKE IT WILL LIKELY BE WARM ENOUGH
ACROSS THE CAPE AND SOUTHEASTERN PLYMOUTH COUNTY FOR SHOWERS TO BE
RAIN RATHER THAN SNOW.

OVERALL...EXPECTING 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW AT MOST ACROSS EASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND.  THERE ARE SEVERAL POTENTIAL PLACES
WHERE LOCALIZED SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS /POSSIBLY UP TO 2-4 INCHES/
ARE POSSIBLE.  LOOKING AT THE HIGH RES MODELS...EITHER ACROSS ESSEX
COUNTY AND CAPE ANN...EASTERN NORFOLK COUNTY INTO NORTHERN PLYMOUTH
COUNTY...OR BOTH. THEN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WORCESTER COUNTY AND
PROVIDENCE COUNTY MAY SEE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS GIVEN THE UPSLOPE
COMPONENT OF THE WINDS.

SOME OF THE HIGH RES MODELS HAVE A DECENT CLIP OF QPF INTO ESSEX
COUNTY...WHILE OTHERS HAVE NOTHING IN THE SAME AREA.  FOR NORFOLK
AND PLYMOUTH COUNTY...WE MAY SEE A BIT OF OCEAN ENHANCEMENT THAT
RAISES SNOW AMOUNTS IN THOSE AREAS.  DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY AND THE
LOCALIZED NATURE OF THE POTENTIAL HIGHER AMOUNTS...AM OPTING NOT TO
ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. INSTEAD...REISSUED THE SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT FOR SNOW. ANYONE OUT AND ABOUT THIS EVENING IN
EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS WILL WANT TO USE CAUTION AS THERE MAY BE
SLIPPERY PATCHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING HOURS...THEN TAPER
OFF AS INVERTED TROUGH PULLS AWAY FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN.  MOST LIKELY AREAS FOR CONTINUING
SHOWERS WILL BE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EAST COAST OF MASSACHUSETTS.

AS THE DAY GOES ON...EXPECT A SLOW DRYING TREND AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION.  CLOUDS WILL STICK AROUND WITH TEMPS
GENERALLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BIG PICTURE... SHORTWAVE ENTERING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST CROSSES THE
ROCKIES OVER THE WEEKEND DRIVEN BY A 160-KNOT JET.  THIS DIGS A
SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS MONDAY-TUESDAY WHILE PACIFIC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. THIS IN TURN WILL ALLOW AN
UPPER RIDGE TO BUILD ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST AND SLOWLY SHIFT EAST
OF THE COAST.  THE JET ENERGY WORKS ITS WAY AROUND THE BASE OF THE
PLAINS TROUGH AND MOVES UP THE APPALACHANS MIDWEEK.  THIS SUPPORTS A
TRANSITION OF THE TROUGH TO NEGATIVE TILT AND SLOWER MOVEMENT...WITH
WARM MOIST AIR FOR THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE TROUGH AXIS SWINGS OVER
NEW ENGLAND CHRISTMAS DAY FOLLOWED BY A WEAK RIDGE. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE MOVES ASHORE FROM THE PACIFIC MIDWEEK AND MOVES ACROSS THE
PLAINS BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND APPROACHES THE NORTHEAST USA
SATURDAY.

THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN DETAILS AMONG THE LONG RANGE MODELS...BUT
ALL SHOW A SIMILAR SCENARIO BOTH FOR THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM AND THE END
OF WEEK SYSTEM.  WE USED A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF.

THE DAILIES...

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY... HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NORTH OF THE REGION
BRINGING A MOIST EAST FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. UPPER
PATTERN SHOWS WEAK RIDGING AS THE PLAINS TROUGH DIGS...BUT SURFACE
FIELDS SUGGEST A LINGERING INVERTED TROUGH ALONG OR JUST OFFSHORE.
THIS SHOULD MAINTAIN CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS. COULD BE SOME DRIZZLE OR
FLURRIES NEAR THE EAST COAST BUT SUPPORTING LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS
LACKING SO PCPN SHOULD BE LIMITED.

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY... LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG A STALLED WARM
FRONT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. AS THE LOW DEVELOPS...IT BRINGS
AN INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT AGAINST HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
THROUGH THE MARITIMES. THE RESULT WILL BE A STRENGTHENING LOW
LEVEL EAST- SOUTHEAST JET. THIS WILL INCREASE THE MOIST INFLOW
OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ALSO...AS THE JET CONVERGES ON THE
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH IT WILL GENERATE INCREASED LOW LEVEL LIFT
AND INCREASE THE CHANCE OF PCPN. WE WILL HAVE CLOUDS AND CHANCE
POPS. TEMPS IN NORTHWEST MASS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH SO THAT THERE
MAY BE A MIX OF PCPN TYPES DURING THE MORNING.

TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY... PLAINS UPPER TROUGH DIGS DEEPER AND MOVES
EAST...PUSHING THE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR EAST. ALSO...THE STRONG UPPER
SOUTHWEST JET MOVES UP OVER THE EASTERN USA. THIS SETUP WILL TAKE
THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW UP THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
SECONDARY LOWS FORMING ON THE SYSTEM COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. A SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL JET
WILL MOVE UP THE ATLANTIC COAST ON WEDNESDAY AND OVER THE TOP OF THE
EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW AT THE SURFACE. THE RESULT WILL BE PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL LIFT THE GENERATE PCPN.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO EXCEED 1.5 INCHES...WHICH
IS 3 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR DECEMBER.  THIS MEANS A LOT OF
WATER AVAILABLE AS PCPN. TEMPERATURE PROFILES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING
SO PTYPE SHOULD BE RAIN. MODEL QPF SHOWS POTENTIAL RAINFALL OF OVER
2 INCHES. THIS WOULD SUGGEST POTENTIAL URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING
ISSUES WEDNESDAY.

STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE ECMWF SHOWS EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS 30-35 KNOTS ALONG HE
EAST MASS COAST AT 1000 MB. THEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT WINDS AT 925 MB
INCREASE TO 60-75 KNOTS AND MOVE ACROSS COASTAL RI AND SOUTHEAST
MASS. STRONG DOWNPOURS MAY OVERCOME THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION AND
BRING STRONG GUSTS OF AT LEAST 30-40 KNOTS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
SOUTH COAST. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED IN SOME AREAS.

MAINTAINED A LIMITED MENTION OF THUNDER...AS CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS
ARE MARGINAL...SI VALUES WILL BE JUST ABOVE ZERO AND K INDEX WILL BE
IN THE LOW 30S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

UPPER LOW WILL SWING THE SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO WEST AND PCPN
SHOULD COME TO AN END AROUND THE TIME THAT SANTA ARRIVES.

CHRISTMAS DAY... WEST WINDS WILL BRING A DRYING OF THE AIRMASS
DURING THE DAY. SO THE TREND SHOULD BE TO AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING.
SUFFICIENT COLD ADVECTION AT ALL LEVELS THURSDAY WILL ALLOW SOME
MIXING.  WINDS IN THE SFC-850 MB LAYER WILL BE 30-40 KNOTS AND
POSSIBLY A LITTLE HIGHER...WHICH WOULD REQUIRE A WIND ADVISORY FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY
AND BRING A SUNNY DAY. THE NEXT PACIFIC SHORTWAVE APPROACHES
SATURDAY AND SHOULD BRING INCREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST ALONG
WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND AT
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MOVING
WEST OFF THE OCEAN INTO SOUTHEASTERN MASS. THESE WILL SPREAD
FARTHER WEST INTO RI/CENTRAL MASS/NORTHEAST CT. LOCAL IFR
CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST SHOWERS.

WINDS ARE ENE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SOUTHEAST MASS COAST WITH NORTH
TO NORTHWEST WINDS ELSEWHERE. THIS WINDSHIFT MAY NUDGE FARTHER
WEST WITH THE SHOWERS EARLY TONIGHT.

MVFR CIGS MAY REACH THE CT VALLEY LATE TONIGHT BUT LOW CONFIDENCE
ABOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION IN VSBY THERE.

MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER MOST AREA ON SUNDAY. ANY CIGS THAT RISE
ABOVE MVFR SHOULD ONLY REACH AROUND 4000 FEET.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. FLURRIES AND SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGH 06Z WITH POTENTIAL FOR WINDSHIFT TO 040 DURING
THIS TIME.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...MVFR CIGS CONTINUE IN RI/EASTERN MASS IN
MARINE EAST FLOW. VFR IN THE WEST.

TUESDAY...VFR WITH SCATTERED MVFR IN ANY RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS LOWERING TO IFR IN RAIN/HEAVY RAIN. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EAST-SOUTHEST
SURFACE WINDS MAY GUST TO 35 KNOTS ALONG THE EAST MASSACHUSETTS
COAST. WINDS AT 2000 FEET AGL WILL REACH 50-60 KNOTS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY NIGHT CREATING LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONCERNS.

CHRISTMAS DAY...WEST WIND GUSTING 30-40 KNOTS. CONDITIONS IMPROVING
TO VFR AS THE WIND BRINGS IN COOLER DRIER AIR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS QUEBEC WILL RESULT IN
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS WITH SEAS BETWEEN 2 AND 4 FEET ARE
EXPECTED FOR MOST WATERS...SO NO HEADLINES PLANNED.

THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY THAT A BRIEF SURGE OF NORTHEAST WIND
GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS WITH MARGINAL 5 FOOT SEAS COULD AFFECT OUR
NORTHERN WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUN MORNING...BUT NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO ISSUE ANY HEADLINES AT THIS POINT.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING AROUND 15
KNOTS OR LESS.  SEAS WILL HOLD AROUND 3-4 FEET.

TUESDAY... INCREASING EAST WINDS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5-6 FEET ON THE EXPOSED WATERS.  A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

WEDNESDAY...RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES PRODUCING POOR VISIBILITY.
INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS 20-25 SUSTAINED AND 40 KNOT GUSTS.  WINDS
SHOULD SHIFT TO SOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SOUTHWEST TOWARD THURSDAY
MORNING. RAIN WILL TAPER OFF WITH THE WIND SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST. SEAS
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD WITH 5-10 FEET HEIGHTS ON THE EXPOSED WATERS.
A GALE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

CHRISTMAS DAY... WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST 35-40
KNOTS...SO A GALE WARNING MAY CONTINUE TO BE NEEDED. SEAS OF 10-15
FEET ARE POSSIBLE ON THE EXPOSED WATERS...AND 5 FEET IS POSSIBLE ON
SOME OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL OCCUR
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. BREAKING IT DOWN...ON TUESDAY HIGH TIDE
AT BOSTON WILL BE 11.6 FT. THERE WILL BE EAST WINDS DURING THIS
HIGH TIDE ALLOWING FOR MINOR SPLASHOVER ALONG THE MASS COAST. IF
WIND GUSTS INCREASE THEN COULD POSSIBLE SEE MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING.

ON WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL SWITCH TO A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DURING
THE DAY AND INCREASE QUICKLY DUE TO THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE IN BOSTON IS 11.7 FT...AND AN
APPRECIABLE EAST OR SOUTHEAST WIND SHOULD PUSH LEVELS HIGHER THAN ON
TUESDAY.  THIS WOULD PROBABLY BE THE BEST CHACNE OF MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING ALONG THE EAST COAST.

THE WEDNESDAY EVENING HIGH TIDE WILL BE A LITTLE LOWER...BUT THE
WIND BECOMES SOUTH WITH 50-60 KNOTS AT 2000 FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE
AVAILABLE TO BE BROUGHT DOWN IN GUSTS. HIGH TIDE IN PROVIDENCE WILL
BE 5.2 FT. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING COULD OCCUR ALONG THE SOUTH
COASTS OF RI AND MASS...AND COULD BE CHANNELED IN NORTH-SOUTH AXIS
BAYS SUCH AS NARRAGANSETT BAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/RLG
NEAR TERM...WTB/RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/RLG
MARINE...WTB/RLG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KALY 202325
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
625 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...WHILE WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASS SOUTH OF THE
REGION. THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT
SNOW TO THE SOUTHERN TACONICS AND THE BERKSHIRES SOUTH IN WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.  UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH A PERIOD OF LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 624 PM EST...

VARIABLE CLOUDINESS CONTINUES EARLY THIS EVENING WITH A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL LOW PASSING OVER ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND. PARTLY CLOUDY
TO MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE LAKE GEORGE
REGION...SRN DACKS...AND SRN VT...WHILE CLOUDY OR MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS PERSIST FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY...CAPITAL REGION...AND
THE BERKSHIRES SOUTH. THE LIGHT SNOW DUE TO THE VORTICITY
ADVECTION MAY DEVELOP OVER NW CT...AND THE SRN TACONICS BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. SOME TWEAKING OF THE POPS WAS DONE IN THE HOURLIES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL BE
THE FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW TO BACK IN ACROSS THE
BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD HILLS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT TEMPS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO DROP AS MUCH AS THEY DID LAST NIGHT. EXPECT LOW TEMPS
TO RANGE FROM THE MID TEENS NORTHWEST TO MID 20S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LINGERING SNOW WILL END ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD
HILLS BY MID DAY SUNDAY. ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE VERY LIGHT WITH
A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH UP TO AN INCH TOTAL. THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY IS EXPECTED TO BE CLOUDY ACROSS THE FA AS LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS
REMAIN IN PLACE TRAPPING MOISTURE BENEATH THEM. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 30S
SOUTHEAST.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
AS MOISTURE STARTS TO LIFT NORTHWARD FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
ON MONDAY AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. WHILE IT WILL BE DRY...CLOUDS WILL BE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S AND
HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE 30S.

ON MONDAY NIGHT MOISTURE STARTS TO OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA AS
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA WITH
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST.
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FA WITH A PLETHORA OF
PCPN TYPES MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA WITH
MAINLY SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA. PCPN SHOULD START
AS SNOW IN ALL AREAS BEFORE THE TRANSITION OCCURS DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA.
PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT SOME LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET MIXING IN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FA. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE TRICKY WITH NOT MUCH OF A DROP FROM
DAYTIME HIGHS ON MONDAY. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE MID
20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...PUNCTUATED BY A STRONG STORM SYSTEM TRACKING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE MAIN STORM
SYSTEM...A PERSISTENT MOIST FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC AND OVERRUNNING
WILL ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TUE AND TUE
NT. A SURGE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF A LEAD UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE
SHOULD ALLOW FOR A GREATER AREAL COVERAGE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION FOR
TUESDAY...ESP IN THE MORNING. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THAT THE
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION WOULD BE LIGHT SNOW OR A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF
SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO MAINLY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE BY LATE TUESDAY IN
MOST AREAS. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING
RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD LINGER INTO LATE TUE OR TUE EVE
ACROSS SOME SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE LAKE GEORGE REGION AND SOUTHERN
VT...AND POSSIBLY EASTERN BERKSHIRE CO. EXPECT TEMPS TO SLOWLY RISE
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S BY LATE TUESDAY. FOR TUE NT...MOST TEMPS
SHOULD HOLD NEARLY STEADY IN THE 30S.

THE MAIN STORM SHOULD IMPACT THE REGION WED INTO WED NT...ALTHOUGH
TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN THE LONG TERM GUIDANCE...AND THE
HANDLING OF POTENTIAL SFC WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG A COLD/OCCLUDED
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A NARROW COLD FRONTAL RAIN BAND
WILL LIKELY IMMEDIATELY PRECEDE/ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...AND COULD EVEN
CONTAIN SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER. MOST LONG TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT THIS FRONT PASSES THROUGH BETWEEN 00Z-06Z/THU. THE 12Z/20 ECMWF
SEEMS TO BE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. IN FACT...IT ACTUALLY ALLOWS COLDER AIR TO MOVE INTO
PORTIONS OF THE REGION AS THE TRAILING STRATIFORM PORTION OF THE
NARROW COLD FRONTAL BAND PASSES THROUGH...WITH SOME SUGGESTION OF
PRECIP ENDING AS SNOW...AT LEAST ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE
GFS/GEFS ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND LESS EMPHATIC WITH WAVE
DEVELOPMENT AND ANY SNOW/MIXED PRECIP. AT THIS TIME...HAVE INDICATED
SOME TRANSITION LATE AT NIGHT TO RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN VALLEYS...AND
MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

RAINFALL COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY WED-WED NT...WITH TOTAL QPF RANGING
FROM 0.75-1.5 INCHES...ALTHOUGH HIGHER AMTS WOULD BE POSSIBLE...ESP
SHOULD ANY WAVE DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND SLOW DOWN THE FORWARD
MOTION OF ANY FRONTAL RAIN BAND. THIS HEAVY RAINFALL...COMBINED WITH
SNOWMELT DUE TO STRONG WINDS AND MILD TEMPERATURES/HIGH
DEWPOINTS...COULD LEAD TO SOME HYDROLOGIC ISSUES INCLUDING MINOR
FLOODING. SEE THE HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS.

WINDS WILL ALSO BE QUITE STRONG ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS/CATSKILLS...AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WHERE GUSTS OF
30-40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR EVEN HIGHER
GUSTS. IN VALLEYS...BOUNDARY LAYER STABILITY MAY LIMIT HOW MUCH WIND
REACHES THE SURFACE...BUT WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO ASSESS THIS CLOSER
TO THE EVENT. SOME STRONGER GUSTS COULD ALSO OCCUR WITHIN ANY TALLER
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS AHEAD OF AND WITH THE ACTUAL FRONT AS WELL. MAX
TEMPS ON WED WILL BE TRICKY...AS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT RAPID
WARMING WELL INTO THE 50S COULD OCCUR AS A WARM FRONT TRANSLATES
NORTHWARD. THIS POTENTIAL WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT. FOR WED NT/THU AM...TEMPS SHOULD EVENTUALLY FALL
BACK INTO THE 30S IN VALLEYS...AND POSSIBLY SOME UPPER 20S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

IN THE WAKE OF THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM...WINDY AND MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR THURSDAY...WITH SNOW SHOWERS PREVALENT
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90.
WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AS WELL. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH DAYTIME MAXES REACHING THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

RISING HEIGHTS IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
DECREASING TREND IN AREAL COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR THU NT AND
ESP FRI. THU NT/FRI AM MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 20S TO AROUND
30...WITH MAX TEMPS FRI MAINLY IN THE LOWER 40S IN VALLEYS AND 30S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS FOR FRI NT/SAT AM
FALLING INTO THE 20S AND LOWER 30S. AND ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM COULD
BRING SOME RAIN OR SNOW TO THE REGION BY NEXT WEEKEND...WITH MAX
TEMPS REACHING 35-40 IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 30S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION
LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BEING DRAWN NORTHWEST FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND WEAK
DYNAMICS FROM THE DISTURBANCE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH....MAY BRING
SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES TO SOME OF THE TAF SITES LATER
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

OVERALL FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD TREND TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF KPSF...WHERE MVFR CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE. VFR LEVEL
CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LOWER INTO THE MVFR RANGE LATER
TONIGHT...AND PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY.

THE CHANCE FOR SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WILL INCREASE
LATER TONIGHT...MAINLY FOR KPSF/KPOU...WITH TIMING OF POSSIBLE
DEVELOPMENT MAINLY AFTER 08Z-10Z/SUN AND LINGERING UNTIL AT LEAST
14Z-16Z/SUNDAY. A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THESE TIMES. IT IS MORE UNCERTAIN WHETHER ANY
LIGHT SNOW WILL REACH KALB AND KGFL. FOR NOW...HAVE INDICATED
A CHANCE AT KALB...BUT RADAR TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED
OVERNIGHT IN CASE THE AREAL EXPANSION OF ANY LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES
REACHES FURTHER N.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE N TO NE AT GENERALLY 5-10 KT THIS
AFTERNOON...TRENDING TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN...FZRA...SLEET.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA...SN...FZRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...RA.
CHRISTMAS DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 0.75 INCH TO 1.5 INCHES ARE LIKELY ALONG WITH
SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT WHICH RAISES THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING
AND SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES OF LARGER STEM RIVERS. MMEFS
GUIDANCE POINTS TO MANY POINTS AT LEAST REACHING ACTION STAGE
AND HAS GVVN6 HAVING A HIGH PROBABILITY FROM THE GEFS AND NAEFS
GUIDANCE OF REACHING MINOR FLOOD STAGE ON CHRISTMAS DAY. TOO EARLY
TO ISSUE ANY FLOOD WATCHES...HOWEVER WILL MENTION IN THE HWO AT
THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
HYDROLOGY...11








000
FXUS61 KALY 202325
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
625 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...WHILE WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASS SOUTH OF THE
REGION. THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT
SNOW TO THE SOUTHERN TACONICS AND THE BERKSHIRES SOUTH IN WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.  UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH A PERIOD OF LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 624 PM EST...

VARIABLE CLOUDINESS CONTINUES EARLY THIS EVENING WITH A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL LOW PASSING OVER ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND. PARTLY CLOUDY
TO MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE LAKE GEORGE
REGION...SRN DACKS...AND SRN VT...WHILE CLOUDY OR MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS PERSIST FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY...CAPITAL REGION...AND
THE BERKSHIRES SOUTH. THE LIGHT SNOW DUE TO THE VORTICITY
ADVECTION MAY DEVELOP OVER NW CT...AND THE SRN TACONICS BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. SOME TWEAKING OF THE POPS WAS DONE IN THE HOURLIES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL BE
THE FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW TO BACK IN ACROSS THE
BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD HILLS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT TEMPS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO DROP AS MUCH AS THEY DID LAST NIGHT. EXPECT LOW TEMPS
TO RANGE FROM THE MID TEENS NORTHWEST TO MID 20S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LINGERING SNOW WILL END ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD
HILLS BY MID DAY SUNDAY. ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE VERY LIGHT WITH
A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH UP TO AN INCH TOTAL. THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY IS EXPECTED TO BE CLOUDY ACROSS THE FA AS LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS
REMAIN IN PLACE TRAPPING MOISTURE BENEATH THEM. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 30S
SOUTHEAST.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
AS MOISTURE STARTS TO LIFT NORTHWARD FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
ON MONDAY AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. WHILE IT WILL BE DRY...CLOUDS WILL BE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S AND
HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE 30S.

ON MONDAY NIGHT MOISTURE STARTS TO OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA AS
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA WITH
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST.
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FA WITH A PLETHORA OF
PCPN TYPES MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA WITH
MAINLY SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA. PCPN SHOULD START
AS SNOW IN ALL AREAS BEFORE THE TRANSITION OCCURS DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA.
PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT SOME LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET MIXING IN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FA. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE TRICKY WITH NOT MUCH OF A DROP FROM
DAYTIME HIGHS ON MONDAY. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE MID
20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...PUNCTUATED BY A STRONG STORM SYSTEM TRACKING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE MAIN STORM
SYSTEM...A PERSISTENT MOIST FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC AND OVERRUNNING
WILL ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TUE AND TUE
NT. A SURGE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF A LEAD UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE
SHOULD ALLOW FOR A GREATER AREAL COVERAGE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION FOR
TUESDAY...ESP IN THE MORNING. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THAT THE
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION WOULD BE LIGHT SNOW OR A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF
SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO MAINLY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE BY LATE TUESDAY IN
MOST AREAS. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING
RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD LINGER INTO LATE TUE OR TUE EVE
ACROSS SOME SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE LAKE GEORGE REGION AND SOUTHERN
VT...AND POSSIBLY EASTERN BERKSHIRE CO. EXPECT TEMPS TO SLOWLY RISE
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S BY LATE TUESDAY. FOR TUE NT...MOST TEMPS
SHOULD HOLD NEARLY STEADY IN THE 30S.

THE MAIN STORM SHOULD IMPACT THE REGION WED INTO WED NT...ALTHOUGH
TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN THE LONG TERM GUIDANCE...AND THE
HANDLING OF POTENTIAL SFC WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG A COLD/OCCLUDED
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A NARROW COLD FRONTAL RAIN BAND
WILL LIKELY IMMEDIATELY PRECEDE/ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...AND COULD EVEN
CONTAIN SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER. MOST LONG TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT THIS FRONT PASSES THROUGH BETWEEN 00Z-06Z/THU. THE 12Z/20 ECMWF
SEEMS TO BE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. IN FACT...IT ACTUALLY ALLOWS COLDER AIR TO MOVE INTO
PORTIONS OF THE REGION AS THE TRAILING STRATIFORM PORTION OF THE
NARROW COLD FRONTAL BAND PASSES THROUGH...WITH SOME SUGGESTION OF
PRECIP ENDING AS SNOW...AT LEAST ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE
GFS/GEFS ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND LESS EMPHATIC WITH WAVE
DEVELOPMENT AND ANY SNOW/MIXED PRECIP. AT THIS TIME...HAVE INDICATED
SOME TRANSITION LATE AT NIGHT TO RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN VALLEYS...AND
MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

RAINFALL COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY WED-WED NT...WITH TOTAL QPF RANGING
FROM 0.75-1.5 INCHES...ALTHOUGH HIGHER AMTS WOULD BE POSSIBLE...ESP
SHOULD ANY WAVE DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND SLOW DOWN THE FORWARD
MOTION OF ANY FRONTAL RAIN BAND. THIS HEAVY RAINFALL...COMBINED WITH
SNOWMELT DUE TO STRONG WINDS AND MILD TEMPERATURES/HIGH
DEWPOINTS...COULD LEAD TO SOME HYDROLOGIC ISSUES INCLUDING MINOR
FLOODING. SEE THE HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS.

WINDS WILL ALSO BE QUITE STRONG ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS/CATSKILLS...AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WHERE GUSTS OF
30-40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR EVEN HIGHER
GUSTS. IN VALLEYS...BOUNDARY LAYER STABILITY MAY LIMIT HOW MUCH WIND
REACHES THE SURFACE...BUT WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO ASSESS THIS CLOSER
TO THE EVENT. SOME STRONGER GUSTS COULD ALSO OCCUR WITHIN ANY TALLER
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS AHEAD OF AND WITH THE ACTUAL FRONT AS WELL. MAX
TEMPS ON WED WILL BE TRICKY...AS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT RAPID
WARMING WELL INTO THE 50S COULD OCCUR AS A WARM FRONT TRANSLATES
NORTHWARD. THIS POTENTIAL WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT. FOR WED NT/THU AM...TEMPS SHOULD EVENTUALLY FALL
BACK INTO THE 30S IN VALLEYS...AND POSSIBLY SOME UPPER 20S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

IN THE WAKE OF THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM...WINDY AND MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR THURSDAY...WITH SNOW SHOWERS PREVALENT
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90.
WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AS WELL. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH DAYTIME MAXES REACHING THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

RISING HEIGHTS IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
DECREASING TREND IN AREAL COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR THU NT AND
ESP FRI. THU NT/FRI AM MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 20S TO AROUND
30...WITH MAX TEMPS FRI MAINLY IN THE LOWER 40S IN VALLEYS AND 30S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS FOR FRI NT/SAT AM
FALLING INTO THE 20S AND LOWER 30S. AND ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM COULD
BRING SOME RAIN OR SNOW TO THE REGION BY NEXT WEEKEND...WITH MAX
TEMPS REACHING 35-40 IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 30S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION
LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BEING DRAWN NORTHWEST FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND WEAK
DYNAMICS FROM THE DISTURBANCE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH....MAY BRING
SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES TO SOME OF THE TAF SITES LATER
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

OVERALL FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD TREND TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF KPSF...WHERE MVFR CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE. VFR LEVEL
CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LOWER INTO THE MVFR RANGE LATER
TONIGHT...AND PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY.

THE CHANCE FOR SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WILL INCREASE
LATER TONIGHT...MAINLY FOR KPSF/KPOU...WITH TIMING OF POSSIBLE
DEVELOPMENT MAINLY AFTER 08Z-10Z/SUN AND LINGERING UNTIL AT LEAST
14Z-16Z/SUNDAY. A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THESE TIMES. IT IS MORE UNCERTAIN WHETHER ANY
LIGHT SNOW WILL REACH KALB AND KGFL. FOR NOW...HAVE INDICATED
A CHANCE AT KALB...BUT RADAR TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED
OVERNIGHT IN CASE THE AREAL EXPANSION OF ANY LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES
REACHES FURTHER N.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE N TO NE AT GENERALLY 5-10 KT THIS
AFTERNOON...TRENDING TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN...FZRA...SLEET.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA...SN...FZRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...RA.
CHRISTMAS DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 0.75 INCH TO 1.5 INCHES ARE LIKELY ALONG WITH
SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT WHICH RAISES THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING
AND SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES OF LARGER STEM RIVERS. MMEFS
GUIDANCE POINTS TO MANY POINTS AT LEAST REACHING ACTION STAGE
AND HAS GVVN6 HAVING A HIGH PROBABILITY FROM THE GEFS AND NAEFS
GUIDANCE OF REACHING MINOR FLOOD STAGE ON CHRISTMAS DAY. TOO EARLY
TO ISSUE ANY FLOOD WATCHES...HOWEVER WILL MENTION IN THE HWO AT
THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
HYDROLOGY...11







000
FXUS61 KALY 202153
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
453 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...WHILE
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION. THESE UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES WILL BRING AREAS OF CLOUDS THROUGH MONDAY...AND
PERHAPS SOME FLURRIES FOR SOUTHEAST AREAS LATE TONIGHT. UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH
A PERIOD OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 330 PM THIS AFTERNOON...CLOUDS COVERED THE SOUTHWESTERN
HALF OF THE FA WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
HALF OF THE FA. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF
THE FA THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL BE THE FOCUSING
MECHANISM FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW TO BACK IN ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES AND
LITCHFIELD HILLS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP
AS MUCH AS THEY DID LAST NIGHT. EXPECT LOW TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE
MID TEENS NORTHWEST TO MID 20S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LINGERING SNOW WILL END ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD
HILLS BY MID DAY SUNDAY. ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE VERY LIGHT WITH
A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH UP TO AN INCH TOTAL. THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY IS EXPECTED TO BE CLOUDY ACROSS THE FA AS LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS
REMAIN IN PLACE TRAPPING MOISTURE BENEATH THEM. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 30S
SOUTHEAST.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
AS MOISTURE STARTS TO LIFT NORTHWARD FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
ON MONDAY AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. WHILE IT WILL BE DRY...CLOUDS WILL BE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S AND
HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE 30S.

ON MONDAY NIGHT MOISTURE STARTS TO OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA AS
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA WITH
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST.
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FA WITH A PLETHORA OF
PCPN TYPES MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA WITH
MAINLY SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA. PCPN SHOULD START
AS SNOW IN ALL AREAS BEFORE THE TRANSITION OCCURS DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA.
PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT SOME LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET MIXING IN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FA. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE TRICKY WITH NOT MUCH OF A DROP FROM
DAYTIME HIGHS ON MONDAY. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE MID
20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...PUNCTUATED BY A STRONG STORM SYSTEM TRACKING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE MAIN STORM
SYSTEM...A PERSISTENT MOIST FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC AND OVERRUNNING
WILL ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TUE AND TUE
NT. A SURGE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF A LEAD UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE
SHOULD ALLOW FOR A GREATER AREAL COVERAGE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION FOR
TUESDAY...ESP IN THE MORNING. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THAT THE
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION WOULD BE LIGHT SNOW OR A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF
SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO MAINLY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE BY LATE TUESDAY IN
MOST AREAS. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING
RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD LINGER INTO LATE TUE OR TUE EVE
ACROSS SOME SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE LAKE GEORGE REGION AND SOUTHERN
VT...AND POSSIBLY EASTERN BERKSHIRE CO. EXPECT TEMPS TO SLOWLY RISE
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S BY LATE TUESDAY. FOR TUE NT...MOST TEMPS
SHOULD HOLD NEARLY STEADY IN THE 30S.

THE MAIN STORM SHOULD IMPACT THE REGION WED INTO WED NT...ALTHOUGH
TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN THE LONG TERM GUIDANCE...AND THE
HANDLING OF POTENTIAL SFC WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG A COLD/OCCLUDED
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A NARROW COLD FRONTAL RAIN BAND
WILL LIKELY IMMEDIATELY PRECEDE/ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...AND COULD EVEN
CONTAIN SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER. MOST LONG TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT THIS FRONT PASSES THROUGH BETWEEN 00Z-06Z/THU. THE 12Z/20 ECMWF
SEEMS TO BE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. IN FACT...IT ACTUALLY ALLOWS COLDER AIR TO MOVE INTO
PORTIONS OF THE REGION AS THE TRAILING STRATIFORM PORTION OF THE
NARROW COLD FRONTAL BAND PASSES THROUGH...WITH SOME SUGGESTION OF
PRECIP ENDING AS SNOW...AT LEAST ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE
GFS/GEFS ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND LESS EMPHATIC WITH WAVE
DEVELOPMENT AND ANY SNOW/MIXED PRECIP. AT THIS TIME...HAVE INDICATED
SOME TRANSITION LATE AT NIGHT TO RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN VALLEYS...AND
MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

RAINFALL COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY WED-WED NT...WITH TOTAL QPF RANGING
FROM 0.75-1.5 INCHES...ALTHOUGH HIGHER AMTS WOULD BE POSSIBLE...ESP
SHOULD ANY WAVE DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND SLOW DOWN THE FORWARD
MOTION OF ANY FRONTAL RAIN BAND. THIS HEAVY RAINFALL...COMBINED WITH
SNOWMELT DUE TO STRONG WINDS AND MILD TEMPERATURES/HIGH
DEWPOINTS...COULD LEAD TO SOME HYDROLOGIC ISSUES INCLUDING MINOR
FLOODING. SEE THE HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS.

WINDS WILL ALSO BE QUITE STRONG ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS/CATSKILLS...AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WHERE GUSTS OF
30-40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR EVEN HIGHER
GUSTS. IN VALLEYS...BOUNDARY LAYER STABILITY MAY LIMIT HOW MUCH WIND
REACHES THE SURFACE...BUT WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO ASSESS THIS CLOSER
TO THE EVENT. SOME STRONGER GUSTS COULD ALSO OCCUR WITHIN ANY TALLER
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS AHEAD OF AND WITH THE ACTUAL FRONT AS WELL. MAX
TEMPS ON WED WILL BE TRICKY...AS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT RAPID
WARMING WELL INTO THE 50S COULD OCCUR AS A WARM FRONT TRANSLATES
NORTHWARD. THIS POTENTIAL WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT. FOR WED NT/THU AM...TEMPS SHOULD EVENTUALLY FALL
BACK INTO THE 30S IN VALLEYS...AND POSSIBLY SOME UPPER 20S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

IN THE WAKE OF THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM...WINDY AND MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR THURSDAY...WITH SNOW SHOWERS PREVALENT
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90.
WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AS WELL. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH DAYTIME MAXES REACHING THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

RISING HEIGHTS IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
DECREASING TREND IN AREAL COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR THU NT AND
ESP FRI. THU NT/FRI AM MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 20S TO AROUND
30...WITH MAX TEMPS FRI MAINLY IN THE LOWER 40S IN VALLEYS AND 30S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS FOR FRI NT/SAT AM
FALLING INTO THE 20S AND LOWER 30S. AND ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM COULD
BRING SOME RAIN OR SNOW TO THE REGION BY NEXT WEEKEND...WITH MAX
TEMPS REACHING 35-40 IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 30S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION
LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BEING DRAWN NORTHWEST FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND WEAK
DYNAMICS FROM THE DISTURBANCE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH....MAY BRING
SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES TO SOME OF THE TAF SITES LATER
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

OVERALL FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD TREND TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF KPSF...WHERE MVFR CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE. VFR LEVEL
CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LOWER INTO THE MVFR RANGE LATER
TONIGHT...AND PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY.

THE CHANCE FOR SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WILL INCREASE
LATER TONIGHT...MAINLY FOR KPSF/KPOU...WITH TIMING OF POSSIBLE
DEVELOPMENT MAINLY AFTER 08Z-10Z/SUN AND LINGERING UNTIL AT LEAST
14Z-16Z/SUNDAY. A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THESE TIMES. IT IS MORE UNCERTAIN WHETHER ANY
LIGHT SNOW WILL REACH KALB AND KGFL. FOR NOW...HAVE INDICATED
A CHANCE AT KALB...BUT RADAR TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED
OVERNIGHT IN CASE THE AREAL EXPANSION OF ANY LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES
REACHES FURTHER N.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE N TO NE AT GENERALLY 5-10 KT THIS
AFTERNOON...TRENDING TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN...FZRA...SLEET.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA...SN...FZRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...RA.
CHRISTMAS DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 0.75 INCH TO 1.5 INCHES ARE LIKELY ALONG WITH
SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT WHICH RAISES THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING
AND SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES OF LARGER STEM RIVERS. MMEFS
GUIDANCE POINTS TO MANY POINTS AT LEAST REACHING ACTION STAGE
AND HAS GVVN6 HAVING A HIGH PROBABILITY FROM THE GEFS AND NAEFS
GUIDANCE OF REACHING MINOR FLOOD STAGE ON CHRISTMAS DAY. TOO EARLY
TO ISSUE ANY FLOOD WATCHES...HOWEVER WILL MENTION IN THE HWO AT
THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
HYDROLOGY...11







000
FXUS61 KALY 202153
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
453 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...WHILE
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION. THESE UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES WILL BRING AREAS OF CLOUDS THROUGH MONDAY...AND
PERHAPS SOME FLURRIES FOR SOUTHEAST AREAS LATE TONIGHT. UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH
A PERIOD OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 330 PM THIS AFTERNOON...CLOUDS COVERED THE SOUTHWESTERN
HALF OF THE FA WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
HALF OF THE FA. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF
THE FA THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL BE THE FOCUSING
MECHANISM FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW TO BACK IN ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES AND
LITCHFIELD HILLS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP
AS MUCH AS THEY DID LAST NIGHT. EXPECT LOW TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE
MID TEENS NORTHWEST TO MID 20S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LINGERING SNOW WILL END ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD
HILLS BY MID DAY SUNDAY. ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE VERY LIGHT WITH
A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH UP TO AN INCH TOTAL. THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY IS EXPECTED TO BE CLOUDY ACROSS THE FA AS LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS
REMAIN IN PLACE TRAPPING MOISTURE BENEATH THEM. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 30S
SOUTHEAST.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
AS MOISTURE STARTS TO LIFT NORTHWARD FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
ON MONDAY AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. WHILE IT WILL BE DRY...CLOUDS WILL BE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S AND
HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE 30S.

ON MONDAY NIGHT MOISTURE STARTS TO OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA AS
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA WITH
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST.
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FA WITH A PLETHORA OF
PCPN TYPES MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA WITH
MAINLY SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA. PCPN SHOULD START
AS SNOW IN ALL AREAS BEFORE THE TRANSITION OCCURS DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA.
PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT SOME LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET MIXING IN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FA. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE TRICKY WITH NOT MUCH OF A DROP FROM
DAYTIME HIGHS ON MONDAY. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE MID
20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...PUNCTUATED BY A STRONG STORM SYSTEM TRACKING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE MAIN STORM
SYSTEM...A PERSISTENT MOIST FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC AND OVERRUNNING
WILL ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TUE AND TUE
NT. A SURGE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF A LEAD UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE
SHOULD ALLOW FOR A GREATER AREAL COVERAGE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION FOR
TUESDAY...ESP IN THE MORNING. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THAT THE
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION WOULD BE LIGHT SNOW OR A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF
SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO MAINLY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE BY LATE TUESDAY IN
MOST AREAS. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING
RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD LINGER INTO LATE TUE OR TUE EVE
ACROSS SOME SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE LAKE GEORGE REGION AND SOUTHERN
VT...AND POSSIBLY EASTERN BERKSHIRE CO. EXPECT TEMPS TO SLOWLY RISE
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S BY LATE TUESDAY. FOR TUE NT...MOST TEMPS
SHOULD HOLD NEARLY STEADY IN THE 30S.

THE MAIN STORM SHOULD IMPACT THE REGION WED INTO WED NT...ALTHOUGH
TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN THE LONG TERM GUIDANCE...AND THE
HANDLING OF POTENTIAL SFC WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG A COLD/OCCLUDED
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A NARROW COLD FRONTAL RAIN BAND
WILL LIKELY IMMEDIATELY PRECEDE/ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...AND COULD EVEN
CONTAIN SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER. MOST LONG TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT THIS FRONT PASSES THROUGH BETWEEN 00Z-06Z/THU. THE 12Z/20 ECMWF
SEEMS TO BE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. IN FACT...IT ACTUALLY ALLOWS COLDER AIR TO MOVE INTO
PORTIONS OF THE REGION AS THE TRAILING STRATIFORM PORTION OF THE
NARROW COLD FRONTAL BAND PASSES THROUGH...WITH SOME SUGGESTION OF
PRECIP ENDING AS SNOW...AT LEAST ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE
GFS/GEFS ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND LESS EMPHATIC WITH WAVE
DEVELOPMENT AND ANY SNOW/MIXED PRECIP. AT THIS TIME...HAVE INDICATED
SOME TRANSITION LATE AT NIGHT TO RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN VALLEYS...AND
MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

RAINFALL COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY WED-WED NT...WITH TOTAL QPF RANGING
FROM 0.75-1.5 INCHES...ALTHOUGH HIGHER AMTS WOULD BE POSSIBLE...ESP
SHOULD ANY WAVE DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND SLOW DOWN THE FORWARD
MOTION OF ANY FRONTAL RAIN BAND. THIS HEAVY RAINFALL...COMBINED WITH
SNOWMELT DUE TO STRONG WINDS AND MILD TEMPERATURES/HIGH
DEWPOINTS...COULD LEAD TO SOME HYDROLOGIC ISSUES INCLUDING MINOR
FLOODING. SEE THE HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS.

WINDS WILL ALSO BE QUITE STRONG ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS/CATSKILLS...AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WHERE GUSTS OF
30-40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR EVEN HIGHER
GUSTS. IN VALLEYS...BOUNDARY LAYER STABILITY MAY LIMIT HOW MUCH WIND
REACHES THE SURFACE...BUT WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO ASSESS THIS CLOSER
TO THE EVENT. SOME STRONGER GUSTS COULD ALSO OCCUR WITHIN ANY TALLER
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS AHEAD OF AND WITH THE ACTUAL FRONT AS WELL. MAX
TEMPS ON WED WILL BE TRICKY...AS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT RAPID
WARMING WELL INTO THE 50S COULD OCCUR AS A WARM FRONT TRANSLATES
NORTHWARD. THIS POTENTIAL WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT. FOR WED NT/THU AM...TEMPS SHOULD EVENTUALLY FALL
BACK INTO THE 30S IN VALLEYS...AND POSSIBLY SOME UPPER 20S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

IN THE WAKE OF THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM...WINDY AND MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR THURSDAY...WITH SNOW SHOWERS PREVALENT
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90.
WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AS WELL. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH DAYTIME MAXES REACHING THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

RISING HEIGHTS IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
DECREASING TREND IN AREAL COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR THU NT AND
ESP FRI. THU NT/FRI AM MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 20S TO AROUND
30...WITH MAX TEMPS FRI MAINLY IN THE LOWER 40S IN VALLEYS AND 30S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS FOR FRI NT/SAT AM
FALLING INTO THE 20S AND LOWER 30S. AND ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM COULD
BRING SOME RAIN OR SNOW TO THE REGION BY NEXT WEEKEND...WITH MAX
TEMPS REACHING 35-40 IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 30S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION
LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BEING DRAWN NORTHWEST FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND WEAK
DYNAMICS FROM THE DISTURBANCE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH....MAY BRING
SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES TO SOME OF THE TAF SITES LATER
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

OVERALL FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD TREND TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF KPSF...WHERE MVFR CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE. VFR LEVEL
CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LOWER INTO THE MVFR RANGE LATER
TONIGHT...AND PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY.

THE CHANCE FOR SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WILL INCREASE
LATER TONIGHT...MAINLY FOR KPSF/KPOU...WITH TIMING OF POSSIBLE
DEVELOPMENT MAINLY AFTER 08Z-10Z/SUN AND LINGERING UNTIL AT LEAST
14Z-16Z/SUNDAY. A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THESE TIMES. IT IS MORE UNCERTAIN WHETHER ANY
LIGHT SNOW WILL REACH KALB AND KGFL. FOR NOW...HAVE INDICATED
A CHANCE AT KALB...BUT RADAR TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED
OVERNIGHT IN CASE THE AREAL EXPANSION OF ANY LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES
REACHES FURTHER N.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE N TO NE AT GENERALLY 5-10 KT THIS
AFTERNOON...TRENDING TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN...FZRA...SLEET.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA...SN...FZRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...RA.
CHRISTMAS DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 0.75 INCH TO 1.5 INCHES ARE LIKELY ALONG WITH
SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT WHICH RAISES THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING
AND SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES OF LARGER STEM RIVERS. MMEFS
GUIDANCE POINTS TO MANY POINTS AT LEAST REACHING ACTION STAGE
AND HAS GVVN6 HAVING A HIGH PROBABILITY FROM THE GEFS AND NAEFS
GUIDANCE OF REACHING MINOR FLOOD STAGE ON CHRISTMAS DAY. TOO EARLY
TO ISSUE ANY FLOOD WATCHES...HOWEVER WILL MENTION IN THE HWO AT
THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
HYDROLOGY...11







000
FXUS61 KALY 202153
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
453 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...WHILE
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION. THESE UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES WILL BRING AREAS OF CLOUDS THROUGH MONDAY...AND
PERHAPS SOME FLURRIES FOR SOUTHEAST AREAS LATE TONIGHT. UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH
A PERIOD OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 330 PM THIS AFTERNOON...CLOUDS COVERED THE SOUTHWESTERN
HALF OF THE FA WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
HALF OF THE FA. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF
THE FA THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL BE THE FOCUSING
MECHANISM FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW TO BACK IN ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES AND
LITCHFIELD HILLS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP
AS MUCH AS THEY DID LAST NIGHT. EXPECT LOW TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE
MID TEENS NORTHWEST TO MID 20S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LINGERING SNOW WILL END ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD
HILLS BY MID DAY SUNDAY. ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE VERY LIGHT WITH
A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH UP TO AN INCH TOTAL. THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY IS EXPECTED TO BE CLOUDY ACROSS THE FA AS LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS
REMAIN IN PLACE TRAPPING MOISTURE BENEATH THEM. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 30S
SOUTHEAST.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
AS MOISTURE STARTS TO LIFT NORTHWARD FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
ON MONDAY AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. WHILE IT WILL BE DRY...CLOUDS WILL BE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S AND
HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE 30S.

ON MONDAY NIGHT MOISTURE STARTS TO OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA AS
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA WITH
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST.
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FA WITH A PLETHORA OF
PCPN TYPES MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA WITH
MAINLY SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA. PCPN SHOULD START
AS SNOW IN ALL AREAS BEFORE THE TRANSITION OCCURS DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA.
PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT SOME LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET MIXING IN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FA. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE TRICKY WITH NOT MUCH OF A DROP FROM
DAYTIME HIGHS ON MONDAY. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE MID
20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...PUNCTUATED BY A STRONG STORM SYSTEM TRACKING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE MAIN STORM
SYSTEM...A PERSISTENT MOIST FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC AND OVERRUNNING
WILL ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TUE AND TUE
NT. A SURGE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF A LEAD UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE
SHOULD ALLOW FOR A GREATER AREAL COVERAGE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION FOR
TUESDAY...ESP IN THE MORNING. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THAT THE
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION WOULD BE LIGHT SNOW OR A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF
SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO MAINLY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE BY LATE TUESDAY IN
MOST AREAS. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING
RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD LINGER INTO LATE TUE OR TUE EVE
ACROSS SOME SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE LAKE GEORGE REGION AND SOUTHERN
VT...AND POSSIBLY EASTERN BERKSHIRE CO. EXPECT TEMPS TO SLOWLY RISE
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S BY LATE TUESDAY. FOR TUE NT...MOST TEMPS
SHOULD HOLD NEARLY STEADY IN THE 30S.

THE MAIN STORM SHOULD IMPACT THE REGION WED INTO WED NT...ALTHOUGH
TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN THE LONG TERM GUIDANCE...AND THE
HANDLING OF POTENTIAL SFC WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG A COLD/OCCLUDED
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A NARROW COLD FRONTAL RAIN BAND
WILL LIKELY IMMEDIATELY PRECEDE/ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...AND COULD EVEN
CONTAIN SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER. MOST LONG TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT THIS FRONT PASSES THROUGH BETWEEN 00Z-06Z/THU. THE 12Z/20 ECMWF
SEEMS TO BE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. IN FACT...IT ACTUALLY ALLOWS COLDER AIR TO MOVE INTO
PORTIONS OF THE REGION AS THE TRAILING STRATIFORM PORTION OF THE
NARROW COLD FRONTAL BAND PASSES THROUGH...WITH SOME SUGGESTION OF
PRECIP ENDING AS SNOW...AT LEAST ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE
GFS/GEFS ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND LESS EMPHATIC WITH WAVE
DEVELOPMENT AND ANY SNOW/MIXED PRECIP. AT THIS TIME...HAVE INDICATED
SOME TRANSITION LATE AT NIGHT TO RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN VALLEYS...AND
MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

RAINFALL COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY WED-WED NT...WITH TOTAL QPF RANGING
FROM 0.75-1.5 INCHES...ALTHOUGH HIGHER AMTS WOULD BE POSSIBLE...ESP
SHOULD ANY WAVE DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND SLOW DOWN THE FORWARD
MOTION OF ANY FRONTAL RAIN BAND. THIS HEAVY RAINFALL...COMBINED WITH
SNOWMELT DUE TO STRONG WINDS AND MILD TEMPERATURES/HIGH
DEWPOINTS...COULD LEAD TO SOME HYDROLOGIC ISSUES INCLUDING MINOR
FLOODING. SEE THE HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS.

WINDS WILL ALSO BE QUITE STRONG ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS/CATSKILLS...AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WHERE GUSTS OF
30-40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR EVEN HIGHER
GUSTS. IN VALLEYS...BOUNDARY LAYER STABILITY MAY LIMIT HOW MUCH WIND
REACHES THE SURFACE...BUT WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO ASSESS THIS CLOSER
TO THE EVENT. SOME STRONGER GUSTS COULD ALSO OCCUR WITHIN ANY TALLER
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS AHEAD OF AND WITH THE ACTUAL FRONT AS WELL. MAX
TEMPS ON WED WILL BE TRICKY...AS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT RAPID
WARMING WELL INTO THE 50S COULD OCCUR AS A WARM FRONT TRANSLATES
NORTHWARD. THIS POTENTIAL WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT. FOR WED NT/THU AM...TEMPS SHOULD EVENTUALLY FALL
BACK INTO THE 30S IN VALLEYS...AND POSSIBLY SOME UPPER 20S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

IN THE WAKE OF THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM...WINDY AND MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR THURSDAY...WITH SNOW SHOWERS PREVALENT
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90.
WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AS WELL. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH DAYTIME MAXES REACHING THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

RISING HEIGHTS IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
DECREASING TREND IN AREAL COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR THU NT AND
ESP FRI. THU NT/FRI AM MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 20S TO AROUND
30...WITH MAX TEMPS FRI MAINLY IN THE LOWER 40S IN VALLEYS AND 30S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS FOR FRI NT/SAT AM
FALLING INTO THE 20S AND LOWER 30S. AND ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM COULD
BRING SOME RAIN OR SNOW TO THE REGION BY NEXT WEEKEND...WITH MAX
TEMPS REACHING 35-40 IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 30S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION
LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BEING DRAWN NORTHWEST FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND WEAK
DYNAMICS FROM THE DISTURBANCE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH....MAY BRING
SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES TO SOME OF THE TAF SITES LATER
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

OVERALL FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD TREND TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF KPSF...WHERE MVFR CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE. VFR LEVEL
CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LOWER INTO THE MVFR RANGE LATER
TONIGHT...AND PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY.

THE CHANCE FOR SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WILL INCREASE
LATER TONIGHT...MAINLY FOR KPSF/KPOU...WITH TIMING OF POSSIBLE
DEVELOPMENT MAINLY AFTER 08Z-10Z/SUN AND LINGERING UNTIL AT LEAST
14Z-16Z/SUNDAY. A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THESE TIMES. IT IS MORE UNCERTAIN WHETHER ANY
LIGHT SNOW WILL REACH KALB AND KGFL. FOR NOW...HAVE INDICATED
A CHANCE AT KALB...BUT RADAR TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED
OVERNIGHT IN CASE THE AREAL EXPANSION OF ANY LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES
REACHES FURTHER N.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE N TO NE AT GENERALLY 5-10 KT THIS
AFTERNOON...TRENDING TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN...FZRA...SLEET.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA...SN...FZRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...RA.
CHRISTMAS DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 0.75 INCH TO 1.5 INCHES ARE LIKELY ALONG WITH
SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT WHICH RAISES THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING
AND SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES OF LARGER STEM RIVERS. MMEFS
GUIDANCE POINTS TO MANY POINTS AT LEAST REACHING ACTION STAGE
AND HAS GVVN6 HAVING A HIGH PROBABILITY FROM THE GEFS AND NAEFS
GUIDANCE OF REACHING MINOR FLOOD STAGE ON CHRISTMAS DAY. TOO EARLY
TO ISSUE ANY FLOOD WATCHES...HOWEVER WILL MENTION IN THE HWO AT
THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
HYDROLOGY...11







000
FXUS61 KALY 202153
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
453 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...WHILE
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION. THESE UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES WILL BRING AREAS OF CLOUDS THROUGH MONDAY...AND
PERHAPS SOME FLURRIES FOR SOUTHEAST AREAS LATE TONIGHT. UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH
A PERIOD OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 330 PM THIS AFTERNOON...CLOUDS COVERED THE SOUTHWESTERN
HALF OF THE FA WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
HALF OF THE FA. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF
THE FA THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL BE THE FOCUSING
MECHANISM FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW TO BACK IN ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES AND
LITCHFIELD HILLS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP
AS MUCH AS THEY DID LAST NIGHT. EXPECT LOW TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE
MID TEENS NORTHWEST TO MID 20S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LINGERING SNOW WILL END ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD
HILLS BY MID DAY SUNDAY. ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE VERY LIGHT WITH
A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH UP TO AN INCH TOTAL. THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY IS EXPECTED TO BE CLOUDY ACROSS THE FA AS LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS
REMAIN IN PLACE TRAPPING MOISTURE BENEATH THEM. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 30S
SOUTHEAST.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
AS MOISTURE STARTS TO LIFT NORTHWARD FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
ON MONDAY AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. WHILE IT WILL BE DRY...CLOUDS WILL BE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S AND
HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE 30S.

ON MONDAY NIGHT MOISTURE STARTS TO OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA AS
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA WITH
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST.
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FA WITH A PLETHORA OF
PCPN TYPES MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA WITH
MAINLY SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA. PCPN SHOULD START
AS SNOW IN ALL AREAS BEFORE THE TRANSITION OCCURS DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA.
PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT SOME LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET MIXING IN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FA. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE TRICKY WITH NOT MUCH OF A DROP FROM
DAYTIME HIGHS ON MONDAY. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE MID
20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...PUNCTUATED BY A STRONG STORM SYSTEM TRACKING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE MAIN STORM
SYSTEM...A PERSISTENT MOIST FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC AND OVERRUNNING
WILL ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TUE AND TUE
NT. A SURGE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF A LEAD UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE
SHOULD ALLOW FOR A GREATER AREAL COVERAGE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION FOR
TUESDAY...ESP IN THE MORNING. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THAT THE
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION WOULD BE LIGHT SNOW OR A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF
SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO MAINLY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE BY LATE TUESDAY IN
MOST AREAS. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING
RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD LINGER INTO LATE TUE OR TUE EVE
ACROSS SOME SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE LAKE GEORGE REGION AND SOUTHERN
VT...AND POSSIBLY EASTERN BERKSHIRE CO. EXPECT TEMPS TO SLOWLY RISE
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S BY LATE TUESDAY. FOR TUE NT...MOST TEMPS
SHOULD HOLD NEARLY STEADY IN THE 30S.

THE MAIN STORM SHOULD IMPACT THE REGION WED INTO WED NT...ALTHOUGH
TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN THE LONG TERM GUIDANCE...AND THE
HANDLING OF POTENTIAL SFC WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG A COLD/OCCLUDED
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A NARROW COLD FRONTAL RAIN BAND
WILL LIKELY IMMEDIATELY PRECEDE/ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...AND COULD EVEN
CONTAIN SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER. MOST LONG TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT THIS FRONT PASSES THROUGH BETWEEN 00Z-06Z/THU. THE 12Z/20 ECMWF
SEEMS TO BE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. IN FACT...IT ACTUALLY ALLOWS COLDER AIR TO MOVE INTO
PORTIONS OF THE REGION AS THE TRAILING STRATIFORM PORTION OF THE
NARROW COLD FRONTAL BAND PASSES THROUGH...WITH SOME SUGGESTION OF
PRECIP ENDING AS SNOW...AT LEAST ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE
GFS/GEFS ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND LESS EMPHATIC WITH WAVE
DEVELOPMENT AND ANY SNOW/MIXED PRECIP. AT THIS TIME...HAVE INDICATED
SOME TRANSITION LATE AT NIGHT TO RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN VALLEYS...AND
MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

RAINFALL COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY WED-WED NT...WITH TOTAL QPF RANGING
FROM 0.75-1.5 INCHES...ALTHOUGH HIGHER AMTS WOULD BE POSSIBLE...ESP
SHOULD ANY WAVE DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND SLOW DOWN THE FORWARD
MOTION OF ANY FRONTAL RAIN BAND. THIS HEAVY RAINFALL...COMBINED WITH
SNOWMELT DUE TO STRONG WINDS AND MILD TEMPERATURES/HIGH
DEWPOINTS...COULD LEAD TO SOME HYDROLOGIC ISSUES INCLUDING MINOR
FLOODING. SEE THE HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS.

WINDS WILL ALSO BE QUITE STRONG ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS/CATSKILLS...AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WHERE GUSTS OF
30-40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR EVEN HIGHER
GUSTS. IN VALLEYS...BOUNDARY LAYER STABILITY MAY LIMIT HOW MUCH WIND
REACHES THE SURFACE...BUT WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO ASSESS THIS CLOSER
TO THE EVENT. SOME STRONGER GUSTS COULD ALSO OCCUR WITHIN ANY TALLER
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS AHEAD OF AND WITH THE ACTUAL FRONT AS WELL. MAX
TEMPS ON WED WILL BE TRICKY...AS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT RAPID
WARMING WELL INTO THE 50S COULD OCCUR AS A WARM FRONT TRANSLATES
NORTHWARD. THIS POTENTIAL WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT. FOR WED NT/THU AM...TEMPS SHOULD EVENTUALLY FALL
BACK INTO THE 30S IN VALLEYS...AND POSSIBLY SOME UPPER 20S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

IN THE WAKE OF THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM...WINDY AND MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR THURSDAY...WITH SNOW SHOWERS PREVALENT
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90.
WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AS WELL. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH DAYTIME MAXES REACHING THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

RISING HEIGHTS IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
DECREASING TREND IN AREAL COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR THU NT AND
ESP FRI. THU NT/FRI AM MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 20S TO AROUND
30...WITH MAX TEMPS FRI MAINLY IN THE LOWER 40S IN VALLEYS AND 30S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS FOR FRI NT/SAT AM
FALLING INTO THE 20S AND LOWER 30S. AND ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM COULD
BRING SOME RAIN OR SNOW TO THE REGION BY NEXT WEEKEND...WITH MAX
TEMPS REACHING 35-40 IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 30S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION
LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BEING DRAWN NORTHWEST FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND WEAK
DYNAMICS FROM THE DISTURBANCE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH....MAY BRING
SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES TO SOME OF THE TAF SITES LATER
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

OVERALL FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD TREND TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF KPSF...WHERE MVFR CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE. VFR LEVEL
CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LOWER INTO THE MVFR RANGE LATER
TONIGHT...AND PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY.

THE CHANCE FOR SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WILL INCREASE
LATER TONIGHT...MAINLY FOR KPSF/KPOU...WITH TIMING OF POSSIBLE
DEVELOPMENT MAINLY AFTER 08Z-10Z/SUN AND LINGERING UNTIL AT LEAST
14Z-16Z/SUNDAY. A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THESE TIMES. IT IS MORE UNCERTAIN WHETHER ANY
LIGHT SNOW WILL REACH KALB AND KGFL. FOR NOW...HAVE INDICATED
A CHANCE AT KALB...BUT RADAR TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED
OVERNIGHT IN CASE THE AREAL EXPANSION OF ANY LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES
REACHES FURTHER N.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE N TO NE AT GENERALLY 5-10 KT THIS
AFTERNOON...TRENDING TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN...FZRA...SLEET.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA...SN...FZRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...RA.
CHRISTMAS DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 0.75 INCH TO 1.5 INCHES ARE LIKELY ALONG WITH
SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT WHICH RAISES THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING
AND SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES OF LARGER STEM RIVERS. MMEFS
GUIDANCE POINTS TO MANY POINTS AT LEAST REACHING ACTION STAGE
AND HAS GVVN6 HAVING A HIGH PROBABILITY FROM THE GEFS AND NAEFS
GUIDANCE OF REACHING MINOR FLOOD STAGE ON CHRISTMAS DAY. TOO EARLY
TO ISSUE ANY FLOOD WATCHES...HOWEVER WILL MENTION IN THE HWO AT
THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
HYDROLOGY...11







000
FXUS61 KBOX 202147
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
447 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE REGION
FROM EAST TO WEST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUN. WEAK LOW PRESSURE
WILL PASS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND BRINGING ANOTHER PERIOD OF
PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. A MUCH STRONGER STORM
PASSING WEST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY
WINDS AND COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRY BUT VERY WINDY CONDITIONS FOLLOW FOR
CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE TO A
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS WILL PROVIDE A
FOCUS FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS
BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT.  WHILE SNOW
SHOWERS MAY REACH INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT...A COASTAL FRONT
WILL DEVELOP...AIDING IN FOCUSING SHOWERS ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
MASSACHUSETTS.

SNOW SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT AS THE LOW LEVELS
MOISTEN UP A BIT MORE. LOOKS LIKE IT WILL LIKELY BE WARM ENOUGH
ACROSS THE CAPE AND SOUTHEASTERN PLYMOUTH COUNTY FOR SHOWERS TO BE
RAIN RATHER THAN SNOW.

OVERALL...EXPECTING 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW AT MOST ACROSS EASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND.  THERE ARE SEVERAL POTENTIAL PLACES
WHERE LOCALIZED SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS /POSSIBLY UP TO 2-4 INCHES/
ARE POSSIBLE.  LOOKING AT THE HIGH RES MODELS...EITHER ACROSS ESSEX
COUNTY AND CAPE ANN...EASTERN NORFOLK COUNTY INTO NORTHERN PLYMOUTH
COUNTY...OR BOTH. THEN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WORCESTER COUNTY AND
PROVIDENCE COUNTY MAY SEE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS GIVEN THE UPSLOPE
COMPONENT OF THE WINDS.

SOME OF THE HIGH RES MODELS HAVE A DECENT CLIP OF QPF INTO ESSEX
COUNTY...WHILE OTHERS HAVE NOTHING IN THE SAME AREA.  FOR NORFOLK
AND PLYMOUTH COUNTY...WE MAY SEE A BIT OF OCEAN ENHANCEMENT THAT
RAISES SNOW AMOUNTS IN THOSE AREAS.  DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY AND THE
LOCALIZED NATURE OF THE POTENTIAL HIGHER AMOUNTS...AM OPTING NOT TO
ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. INSTEAD...REISSUED THE SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT FOR SNOW. ANYONE OUT AND ABOUT THIS EVENING IN
EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS WILL WANT TO USE CAUTION AS THERE MAY BE
SLIPPERY PATCHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING HOURS...THEN TAPER
OFF AS INVERTED TROUGH PULLS AWAY FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN.  MOST LIKELY AREAS FOR CONTINUING
SHOWERS WILL BE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EAST COAST OF MASSACHUSETTS.

AS THE DAY GOES ON...EXPECT A SLOW DRYING TREND AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION.  CLOUDS WILL STICK AROUND WITH TEMPS
GENERALLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

BIG PICTURE... SHORTWAVE ENTERING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST CROSSES THE
ROCKIES OVER THE WEEKEND DRIVEN BY A 160-KNOT JET.  THIS DIGS A
SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS MONDAY-TUESDAY WHILE PACIFIC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. THIS IN TURN WILL ALLOW AN
UPPER RIDGE TO BUILD ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST AND SLOWLY SHIFT EAST
OF THE COAST.  THE JET ENERGY WORKS ITS WAY AROUND THE BASE OF THE
PLAINS TROUGH AND MOVES UP THE APPALACHANS MIDWEEK.  THIS SUPPORTS A
TRANSITION OF THE TROUGH TO NEGATIVE TILT AND SLOWER MOVEMENT...WITH
WARM MOIST AIR FOR THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE TROUGH AXIS SWINGS OVER
NEW ENGLAND CHRISTMAS DAY FOLLOWED BY A WEAK RIDGE. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE MOVES ASHORE FROM THE PACIFIC MIDWEEK AND MOVES ACROSS THE
PLAINS BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND APPROACHES THE NORTHEAST USA
SATURDAY.

THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN DETAILS AMONG THE LONG RANGE MODELS...BUT
ALL SHOW A SIMILAR SCENARIO BOTH FOR THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM AND THE END
OF WEEK SYSTEM.  WE USED A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF.

THE DAILIES...

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY... HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NORTH OF THE REGION
BRINGING A MOIST EAST FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. UPPER
PATTERN SHOWS WEAK RIDGING AS THE PLAINS TROUGH DIGS...BUT SURFACE
FIELDS SUGGEST A LINGERING INVERTED TROUGH ALONG OR JUST OFFSHORE.
THIS SHOULD MAINTAIN CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS. COULD BE SOME DRIZZLE OR
FLURRIES NEAR THE EAST COAST BUT SUPPORTING LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS
LACKING SO PCPN SHOULD BE LIMITED.

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY... LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG A STALLED WARM
FRONT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. AS THE LOW DEVELOPS...IT BRINGS
AN INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT AGAINST HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
THROUGH THE MARITIMES. THE RESULT WILL BE A STRENGTHENING LOW
LEVEL EAST- SOUTHEAST JET. THIS WILL INCREASE THE MOIST INFLOW
OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ALSO...AS THE JET CONVERGES ON THE
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH IT WILL GENERATE INCREASED LOW LEVEL LIFT
AND INCREASE THE CHANCE OF PCPN. WE WILL HAVE CLOUDS AND CHANCE
POPS. TEMPS IN NORTHWEST MASS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH SO THAT THERE
MAY BE A MIX OF PCPN TYPES DURING THE MORNING.

TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY... PLAINS UPPER TROUGH DIGS DEEPER AND MOVES
EAST...PUSHING THE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR EAST. ALSO...THE STRONG UPPER
SOUTHWEST JET MOVES UP OVER THE EASTERN USA. THIS SETUP WILL TAKE
THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW UP THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
SECONDARY LOWS FORMING ON THE SYSTEM COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. A SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL JET
WILL MOVE UP THE ATLANTIC COAST ON WEDNESDAY AND OVER THE TOP OF THE
EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW AT THE SURFACE. THE RESULT WILL BE PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL LIFT THE GENERATE PCPN.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO EXCEED 1.5 INCHES...WHICH
IS 3 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR DECEMBER.  THIS MEANS A LOT OF
WATER AVAILABLE AS PCPN. TEMPERATURE PROFILES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING
SO PTYPE SHOULD BE RAIN. MODEL QPF SHOWS POTENTIAL RAINFALL OF OVER
2 INCHES. THIS WOULD SUGGEST POTENTIAL URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING
ISSUES WEDNESDAY.

STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE ECMWF SHOWS EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS 30-35 KNOTS ALONG HE
EAST MASS COAST AT 1000 MB. THEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT WINDS AT 925 MB
INCREASE TO 60-75 KNOTS AND MOVE ACROSS COASTAL RI AND SOUTHEAST
MASS. STRONG DOWNPOURS MAY OVERCOME THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION AND
BRING STRONG GUSTS OF AT LEAST 30-40 KNOTS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
SOUTH COAST. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED IN SOME AREAS.

MAINTAINED A LIMITED MENTION OF THUNDER...AS CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS
ARE MARGINAL...SI VALUES WILL BE JUST ABOVE ZERO AND K INDEX WILL BE
IN THE LOW 30S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

UPPER LOW WILL SWING THE SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO WEST AND PCPN
SHOULD COME TO AN END AROUND THE TIME THAT SANTA ARRIVES.

CHRISTMAS DAY... WEST WINDS WILL BRING A DRYING OF THE AIRMASS
DURING THE DAY. SO THE TREND SHOULD BE TO AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING.
SUFFICIENT COLD ADVECTION AT ALL LEVELS THURSDAY WILL ALLOW SOME
MIXING.  WINDS IN THE SFC-850 MB LAYER WILL BE 30-40 KNOTS AND
POSSIBLY A LITTLE HIGHER...WHICH WOULD REQUIRE A WIND ADVISORY FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY
AND BRING A SUNNY DAY. THE NEXT PACIFIC SHORTWAVE APPROACHES
SATURDAY AND SHOULD BRING INCREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST ALONG
WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND AT
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THROUGH 00Z...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO
OVERSPREAD EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AND EVENTUALLY OVERSPREAD THE INTERIOR
THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS THIS AFTERNOON. MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTH AND
WEST OF CAPE COD CANAL...RAIN SHOWERS SOUTH AND EAST. LOCALIZED
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE JUST INLAND FROM THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND
COAST...WHERE SNOW IS FALLING.

TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MVFR CONDITIONS DOMINATE
IN LOWER CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN SNOW SHOWERS. PRECIPITATION
AFFECTS MAINLY EASTERN NEW ENGLAND BUT STILL SOME SCATTERED
ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
NORTH AND WEST OF CAPE COD CANAL...RAIN SHOWERS SOUTH AND EAST.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. FLURRIES AND SNOW
SHOWERS MAY AFFECT THE TERMINAL BY 21Z.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...MVFR CIGS CONTINUE IN RI/EASTERN MASS IN
MARINE EAST FLOW. VFR IN THE WEST.

TUESDAY...VFR WITH SCATTERED MVFR IN ANY RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS LOWERING TO IFR IN RAIN/HEAVY RAIN. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EAST-SOUTHEST
SURFACE WINDS MAY GUST TO 35 KNOTS ALONG THE EAST MASSACHUSETTS
COAST. WINDS AT 2000 FEET AGL WILL REACH 50-60 KNOTS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY NIGHT CREATING LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONCERNS.

CHRISTMAS DAY...WEST WIND GUSTING 30-40 KNOTS. CONDITIONS IMPROVING
TO VFR AS THE WIND BRINGS IN COOLER DRIER AIR.
&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS QUEBEC WILL RESULT IN
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS WITH SEAS BETWEEN 2 AND 4 FEET ARE
EXPECTED FOR MOST WATERS...SO NO HEADLINES PLANNED.

THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY THAT A BRIEF SURGE OF NORTHEAST WIND
GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS WITH MARGINAL 5 FOOT SEAS COULD AFFECT OUR
NORTHERN WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUN MORNING...BUT NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO ISSUE ANY HEADLINES AT THIS POINT.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING AROUND 15
KNOTS OR LESS.  SEAS WILL HOLD AROUND 3-4 FEET.

TUESDAY... INCREASING EAST WINDS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5-6 FEET ON THE EXPOSED WATERS.  A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

WEDNESDAY...RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES PRODUCING POOR VISIBILITY.
INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS 20-25 SUSTAINED AND 40 KNOT GUSTS.  WINDS
SHOULD SHIFT TO SOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SOUTHWEST TOWARD THURSDAY
MORNING. RAIN WILL TAPER OFF WITH THE WIND SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST. SEAS
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD WITH 5-10 FEET HEIGHTS ON THE EXPOSED WATERS.
A GALE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

CHRISTMAS DAY... WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST 35-40
KNOTS...SO A GALE WARNING MAY CONTINUE TO BE NEEDED. SEAS OF 10-15
FEET ARE POSSIBLE ON THE EXPOSED WATERS...AND 5 FEET IS POSSIBLE ON
SOME OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL OCCUR
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. BREAKING IT DOWN...ON TUESDAY HIGH TIDE
AT BOSTON WILL BE 11.6 FT. THERE WILL BE EAST WINDS DURING THIS
HIGH TIDE ALLOWING FOR MINOR SPLASHOVER ALONG THE MASS COAST. IF
WIND GUSTS INCREASE THEN COULD POSSIBLE SEE MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING.

ON WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL SWITCH TO A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DURING
THE DAY AND INCREASE QUICKLY DUE TO THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE IN BOSTON IS 11.7 FT...AND AN
APPRECIABLE EAST OR SOUTHEAST WIND SHOULD PUSH LEVELS HIGHER THAN ON
TUESDAY.  THIS WOULD PROBABLY BE THE BEST CHACNE OF MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING ALONG THE EAST COAST.

THE WEDNESDAY EVENING HIGH TIDE WILL BE A LITTLE LOWER...BUT THE
WIND BECOMES SOUTH WITH 50-60 KNOTS AT 2000 FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE
AVAILABLE TO BE BROUGHT DOWN IN GUSTS. HIGH TIDE IN PROVIDENCE WILL
BE 5.2 FT. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING COULD OCCUR ALONG THE SOUTH
COASTS OF RI AND MASS...AND COULD BE CHANNELED IN NORTH-SOUTH AXIS
BAYS SUCH AS NARRAGANSETT BAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/RLG
NEAR TERM...RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/RLG
MARINE...WTB/RLG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 202147
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
447 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE REGION
FROM EAST TO WEST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUN. WEAK LOW PRESSURE
WILL PASS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND BRINGING ANOTHER PERIOD OF
PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. A MUCH STRONGER STORM
PASSING WEST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY
WINDS AND COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRY BUT VERY WINDY CONDITIONS FOLLOW FOR
CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE TO A
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS WILL PROVIDE A
FOCUS FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS
BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT.  WHILE SNOW
SHOWERS MAY REACH INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT...A COASTAL FRONT
WILL DEVELOP...AIDING IN FOCUSING SHOWERS ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
MASSACHUSETTS.

SNOW SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT AS THE LOW LEVELS
MOISTEN UP A BIT MORE. LOOKS LIKE IT WILL LIKELY BE WARM ENOUGH
ACROSS THE CAPE AND SOUTHEASTERN PLYMOUTH COUNTY FOR SHOWERS TO BE
RAIN RATHER THAN SNOW.

OVERALL...EXPECTING 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW AT MOST ACROSS EASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND.  THERE ARE SEVERAL POTENTIAL PLACES
WHERE LOCALIZED SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS /POSSIBLY UP TO 2-4 INCHES/
ARE POSSIBLE.  LOOKING AT THE HIGH RES MODELS...EITHER ACROSS ESSEX
COUNTY AND CAPE ANN...EASTERN NORFOLK COUNTY INTO NORTHERN PLYMOUTH
COUNTY...OR BOTH. THEN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WORCESTER COUNTY AND
PROVIDENCE COUNTY MAY SEE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS GIVEN THE UPSLOPE
COMPONENT OF THE WINDS.

SOME OF THE HIGH RES MODELS HAVE A DECENT CLIP OF QPF INTO ESSEX
COUNTY...WHILE OTHERS HAVE NOTHING IN THE SAME AREA.  FOR NORFOLK
AND PLYMOUTH COUNTY...WE MAY SEE A BIT OF OCEAN ENHANCEMENT THAT
RAISES SNOW AMOUNTS IN THOSE AREAS.  DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY AND THE
LOCALIZED NATURE OF THE POTENTIAL HIGHER AMOUNTS...AM OPTING NOT TO
ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. INSTEAD...REISSUED THE SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT FOR SNOW. ANYONE OUT AND ABOUT THIS EVENING IN
EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS WILL WANT TO USE CAUTION AS THERE MAY BE
SLIPPERY PATCHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING HOURS...THEN TAPER
OFF AS INVERTED TROUGH PULLS AWAY FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN.  MOST LIKELY AREAS FOR CONTINUING
SHOWERS WILL BE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EAST COAST OF MASSACHUSETTS.

AS THE DAY GOES ON...EXPECT A SLOW DRYING TREND AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION.  CLOUDS WILL STICK AROUND WITH TEMPS
GENERALLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

BIG PICTURE... SHORTWAVE ENTERING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST CROSSES THE
ROCKIES OVER THE WEEKEND DRIVEN BY A 160-KNOT JET.  THIS DIGS A
SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS MONDAY-TUESDAY WHILE PACIFIC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. THIS IN TURN WILL ALLOW AN
UPPER RIDGE TO BUILD ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST AND SLOWLY SHIFT EAST
OF THE COAST.  THE JET ENERGY WORKS ITS WAY AROUND THE BASE OF THE
PLAINS TROUGH AND MOVES UP THE APPALACHANS MIDWEEK.  THIS SUPPORTS A
TRANSITION OF THE TROUGH TO NEGATIVE TILT AND SLOWER MOVEMENT...WITH
WARM MOIST AIR FOR THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE TROUGH AXIS SWINGS OVER
NEW ENGLAND CHRISTMAS DAY FOLLOWED BY A WEAK RIDGE. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE MOVES ASHORE FROM THE PACIFIC MIDWEEK AND MOVES ACROSS THE
PLAINS BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND APPROACHES THE NORTHEAST USA
SATURDAY.

THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN DETAILS AMONG THE LONG RANGE MODELS...BUT
ALL SHOW A SIMILAR SCENARIO BOTH FOR THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM AND THE END
OF WEEK SYSTEM.  WE USED A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF.

THE DAILIES...

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY... HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NORTH OF THE REGION
BRINGING A MOIST EAST FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. UPPER
PATTERN SHOWS WEAK RIDGING AS THE PLAINS TROUGH DIGS...BUT SURFACE
FIELDS SUGGEST A LINGERING INVERTED TROUGH ALONG OR JUST OFFSHORE.
THIS SHOULD MAINTAIN CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS. COULD BE SOME DRIZZLE OR
FLURRIES NEAR THE EAST COAST BUT SUPPORTING LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS
LACKING SO PCPN SHOULD BE LIMITED.

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY... LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG A STALLED WARM
FRONT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. AS THE LOW DEVELOPS...IT BRINGS
AN INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT AGAINST HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
THROUGH THE MARITIMES. THE RESULT WILL BE A STRENGTHENING LOW
LEVEL EAST- SOUTHEAST JET. THIS WILL INCREASE THE MOIST INFLOW
OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ALSO...AS THE JET CONVERGES ON THE
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH IT WILL GENERATE INCREASED LOW LEVEL LIFT
AND INCREASE THE CHANCE OF PCPN. WE WILL HAVE CLOUDS AND CHANCE
POPS. TEMPS IN NORTHWEST MASS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH SO THAT THERE
MAY BE A MIX OF PCPN TYPES DURING THE MORNING.

TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY... PLAINS UPPER TROUGH DIGS DEEPER AND MOVES
EAST...PUSHING THE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR EAST. ALSO...THE STRONG UPPER
SOUTHWEST JET MOVES UP OVER THE EASTERN USA. THIS SETUP WILL TAKE
THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW UP THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
SECONDARY LOWS FORMING ON THE SYSTEM COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. A SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL JET
WILL MOVE UP THE ATLANTIC COAST ON WEDNESDAY AND OVER THE TOP OF THE
EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW AT THE SURFACE. THE RESULT WILL BE PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL LIFT THE GENERATE PCPN.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO EXCEED 1.5 INCHES...WHICH
IS 3 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR DECEMBER.  THIS MEANS A LOT OF
WATER AVAILABLE AS PCPN. TEMPERATURE PROFILES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING
SO PTYPE SHOULD BE RAIN. MODEL QPF SHOWS POTENTIAL RAINFALL OF OVER
2 INCHES. THIS WOULD SUGGEST POTENTIAL URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING
ISSUES WEDNESDAY.

STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE ECMWF SHOWS EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS 30-35 KNOTS ALONG HE
EAST MASS COAST AT 1000 MB. THEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT WINDS AT 925 MB
INCREASE TO 60-75 KNOTS AND MOVE ACROSS COASTAL RI AND SOUTHEAST
MASS. STRONG DOWNPOURS MAY OVERCOME THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION AND
BRING STRONG GUSTS OF AT LEAST 30-40 KNOTS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
SOUTH COAST. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED IN SOME AREAS.

MAINTAINED A LIMITED MENTION OF THUNDER...AS CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS
ARE MARGINAL...SI VALUES WILL BE JUST ABOVE ZERO AND K INDEX WILL BE
IN THE LOW 30S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

UPPER LOW WILL SWING THE SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO WEST AND PCPN
SHOULD COME TO AN END AROUND THE TIME THAT SANTA ARRIVES.

CHRISTMAS DAY... WEST WINDS WILL BRING A DRYING OF THE AIRMASS
DURING THE DAY. SO THE TREND SHOULD BE TO AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING.
SUFFICIENT COLD ADVECTION AT ALL LEVELS THURSDAY WILL ALLOW SOME
MIXING.  WINDS IN THE SFC-850 MB LAYER WILL BE 30-40 KNOTS AND
POSSIBLY A LITTLE HIGHER...WHICH WOULD REQUIRE A WIND ADVISORY FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY
AND BRING A SUNNY DAY. THE NEXT PACIFIC SHORTWAVE APPROACHES
SATURDAY AND SHOULD BRING INCREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST ALONG
WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND AT
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THROUGH 00Z...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO
OVERSPREAD EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AND EVENTUALLY OVERSPREAD THE INTERIOR
THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS THIS AFTERNOON. MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTH AND
WEST OF CAPE COD CANAL...RAIN SHOWERS SOUTH AND EAST. LOCALIZED
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE JUST INLAND FROM THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND
COAST...WHERE SNOW IS FALLING.

TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MVFR CONDITIONS DOMINATE
IN LOWER CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN SNOW SHOWERS. PRECIPITATION
AFFECTS MAINLY EASTERN NEW ENGLAND BUT STILL SOME SCATTERED
ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
NORTH AND WEST OF CAPE COD CANAL...RAIN SHOWERS SOUTH AND EAST.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. FLURRIES AND SNOW
SHOWERS MAY AFFECT THE TERMINAL BY 21Z.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...MVFR CIGS CONTINUE IN RI/EASTERN MASS IN
MARINE EAST FLOW. VFR IN THE WEST.

TUESDAY...VFR WITH SCATTERED MVFR IN ANY RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS LOWERING TO IFR IN RAIN/HEAVY RAIN. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EAST-SOUTHEST
SURFACE WINDS MAY GUST TO 35 KNOTS ALONG THE EAST MASSACHUSETTS
COAST. WINDS AT 2000 FEET AGL WILL REACH 50-60 KNOTS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY NIGHT CREATING LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONCERNS.

CHRISTMAS DAY...WEST WIND GUSTING 30-40 KNOTS. CONDITIONS IMPROVING
TO VFR AS THE WIND BRINGS IN COOLER DRIER AIR.
&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS QUEBEC WILL RESULT IN
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS WITH SEAS BETWEEN 2 AND 4 FEET ARE
EXPECTED FOR MOST WATERS...SO NO HEADLINES PLANNED.

THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY THAT A BRIEF SURGE OF NORTHEAST WIND
GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS WITH MARGINAL 5 FOOT SEAS COULD AFFECT OUR
NORTHERN WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUN MORNING...BUT NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO ISSUE ANY HEADLINES AT THIS POINT.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING AROUND 15
KNOTS OR LESS.  SEAS WILL HOLD AROUND 3-4 FEET.

TUESDAY... INCREASING EAST WINDS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5-6 FEET ON THE EXPOSED WATERS.  A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

WEDNESDAY...RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES PRODUCING POOR VISIBILITY.
INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS 20-25 SUSTAINED AND 40 KNOT GUSTS.  WINDS
SHOULD SHIFT TO SOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SOUTHWEST TOWARD THURSDAY
MORNING. RAIN WILL TAPER OFF WITH THE WIND SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST. SEAS
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD WITH 5-10 FEET HEIGHTS ON THE EXPOSED WATERS.
A GALE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

CHRISTMAS DAY... WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST 35-40
KNOTS...SO A GALE WARNING MAY CONTINUE TO BE NEEDED. SEAS OF 10-15
FEET ARE POSSIBLE ON THE EXPOSED WATERS...AND 5 FEET IS POSSIBLE ON
SOME OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL OCCUR
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. BREAKING IT DOWN...ON TUESDAY HIGH TIDE
AT BOSTON WILL BE 11.6 FT. THERE WILL BE EAST WINDS DURING THIS
HIGH TIDE ALLOWING FOR MINOR SPLASHOVER ALONG THE MASS COAST. IF
WIND GUSTS INCREASE THEN COULD POSSIBLE SEE MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING.

ON WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL SWITCH TO A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DURING
THE DAY AND INCREASE QUICKLY DUE TO THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE IN BOSTON IS 11.7 FT...AND AN
APPRECIABLE EAST OR SOUTHEAST WIND SHOULD PUSH LEVELS HIGHER THAN ON
TUESDAY.  THIS WOULD PROBABLY BE THE BEST CHACNE OF MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING ALONG THE EAST COAST.

THE WEDNESDAY EVENING HIGH TIDE WILL BE A LITTLE LOWER...BUT THE
WIND BECOMES SOUTH WITH 50-60 KNOTS AT 2000 FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE
AVAILABLE TO BE BROUGHT DOWN IN GUSTS. HIGH TIDE IN PROVIDENCE WILL
BE 5.2 FT. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING COULD OCCUR ALONG THE SOUTH
COASTS OF RI AND MASS...AND COULD BE CHANNELED IN NORTH-SOUTH AXIS
BAYS SUCH AS NARRAGANSETT BAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/RLG
NEAR TERM...RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/RLG
MARINE...WTB/RLG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 202147
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
447 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE REGION
FROM EAST TO WEST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUN. WEAK LOW PRESSURE
WILL PASS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND BRINGING ANOTHER PERIOD OF
PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. A MUCH STRONGER STORM
PASSING WEST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY
WINDS AND COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRY BUT VERY WINDY CONDITIONS FOLLOW FOR
CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE TO A
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS WILL PROVIDE A
FOCUS FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS
BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT.  WHILE SNOW
SHOWERS MAY REACH INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT...A COASTAL FRONT
WILL DEVELOP...AIDING IN FOCUSING SHOWERS ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
MASSACHUSETTS.

SNOW SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT AS THE LOW LEVELS
MOISTEN UP A BIT MORE. LOOKS LIKE IT WILL LIKELY BE WARM ENOUGH
ACROSS THE CAPE AND SOUTHEASTERN PLYMOUTH COUNTY FOR SHOWERS TO BE
RAIN RATHER THAN SNOW.

OVERALL...EXPECTING 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW AT MOST ACROSS EASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND.  THERE ARE SEVERAL POTENTIAL PLACES
WHERE LOCALIZED SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS /POSSIBLY UP TO 2-4 INCHES/
ARE POSSIBLE.  LOOKING AT THE HIGH RES MODELS...EITHER ACROSS ESSEX
COUNTY AND CAPE ANN...EASTERN NORFOLK COUNTY INTO NORTHERN PLYMOUTH
COUNTY...OR BOTH. THEN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WORCESTER COUNTY AND
PROVIDENCE COUNTY MAY SEE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS GIVEN THE UPSLOPE
COMPONENT OF THE WINDS.

SOME OF THE HIGH RES MODELS HAVE A DECENT CLIP OF QPF INTO ESSEX
COUNTY...WHILE OTHERS HAVE NOTHING IN THE SAME AREA.  FOR NORFOLK
AND PLYMOUTH COUNTY...WE MAY SEE A BIT OF OCEAN ENHANCEMENT THAT
RAISES SNOW AMOUNTS IN THOSE AREAS.  DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY AND THE
LOCALIZED NATURE OF THE POTENTIAL HIGHER AMOUNTS...AM OPTING NOT TO
ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. INSTEAD...REISSUED THE SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT FOR SNOW. ANYONE OUT AND ABOUT THIS EVENING IN
EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS WILL WANT TO USE CAUTION AS THERE MAY BE
SLIPPERY PATCHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING HOURS...THEN TAPER
OFF AS INVERTED TROUGH PULLS AWAY FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN.  MOST LIKELY AREAS FOR CONTINUING
SHOWERS WILL BE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EAST COAST OF MASSACHUSETTS.

AS THE DAY GOES ON...EXPECT A SLOW DRYING TREND AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION.  CLOUDS WILL STICK AROUND WITH TEMPS
GENERALLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

BIG PICTURE... SHORTWAVE ENTERING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST CROSSES THE
ROCKIES OVER THE WEEKEND DRIVEN BY A 160-KNOT JET.  THIS DIGS A
SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS MONDAY-TUESDAY WHILE PACIFIC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. THIS IN TURN WILL ALLOW AN
UPPER RIDGE TO BUILD ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST AND SLOWLY SHIFT EAST
OF THE COAST.  THE JET ENERGY WORKS ITS WAY AROUND THE BASE OF THE
PLAINS TROUGH AND MOVES UP THE APPALACHANS MIDWEEK.  THIS SUPPORTS A
TRANSITION OF THE TROUGH TO NEGATIVE TILT AND SLOWER MOVEMENT...WITH
WARM MOIST AIR FOR THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE TROUGH AXIS SWINGS OVER
NEW ENGLAND CHRISTMAS DAY FOLLOWED BY A WEAK RIDGE. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE MOVES ASHORE FROM THE PACIFIC MIDWEEK AND MOVES ACROSS THE
PLAINS BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND APPROACHES THE NORTHEAST USA
SATURDAY.

THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN DETAILS AMONG THE LONG RANGE MODELS...BUT
ALL SHOW A SIMILAR SCENARIO BOTH FOR THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM AND THE END
OF WEEK SYSTEM.  WE USED A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF.

THE DAILIES...

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY... HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NORTH OF THE REGION
BRINGING A MOIST EAST FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. UPPER
PATTERN SHOWS WEAK RIDGING AS THE PLAINS TROUGH DIGS...BUT SURFACE
FIELDS SUGGEST A LINGERING INVERTED TROUGH ALONG OR JUST OFFSHORE.
THIS SHOULD MAINTAIN CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS. COULD BE SOME DRIZZLE OR
FLURRIES NEAR THE EAST COAST BUT SUPPORTING LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS
LACKING SO PCPN SHOULD BE LIMITED.

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY... LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG A STALLED WARM
FRONT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. AS THE LOW DEVELOPS...IT BRINGS
AN INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT AGAINST HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
THROUGH THE MARITIMES. THE RESULT WILL BE A STRENGTHENING LOW
LEVEL EAST- SOUTHEAST JET. THIS WILL INCREASE THE MOIST INFLOW
OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ALSO...AS THE JET CONVERGES ON THE
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH IT WILL GENERATE INCREASED LOW LEVEL LIFT
AND INCREASE THE CHANCE OF PCPN. WE WILL HAVE CLOUDS AND CHANCE
POPS. TEMPS IN NORTHWEST MASS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH SO THAT THERE
MAY BE A MIX OF PCPN TYPES DURING THE MORNING.

TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY... PLAINS UPPER TROUGH DIGS DEEPER AND MOVES
EAST...PUSHING THE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR EAST. ALSO...THE STRONG UPPER
SOUTHWEST JET MOVES UP OVER THE EASTERN USA. THIS SETUP WILL TAKE
THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW UP THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
SECONDARY LOWS FORMING ON THE SYSTEM COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. A SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL JET
WILL MOVE UP THE ATLANTIC COAST ON WEDNESDAY AND OVER THE TOP OF THE
EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW AT THE SURFACE. THE RESULT WILL BE PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL LIFT THE GENERATE PCPN.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO EXCEED 1.5 INCHES...WHICH
IS 3 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR DECEMBER.  THIS MEANS A LOT OF
WATER AVAILABLE AS PCPN. TEMPERATURE PROFILES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING
SO PTYPE SHOULD BE RAIN. MODEL QPF SHOWS POTENTIAL RAINFALL OF OVER
2 INCHES. THIS WOULD SUGGEST POTENTIAL URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING
ISSUES WEDNESDAY.

STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE ECMWF SHOWS EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS 30-35 KNOTS ALONG HE
EAST MASS COAST AT 1000 MB. THEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT WINDS AT 925 MB
INCREASE TO 60-75 KNOTS AND MOVE ACROSS COASTAL RI AND SOUTHEAST
MASS. STRONG DOWNPOURS MAY OVERCOME THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION AND
BRING STRONG GUSTS OF AT LEAST 30-40 KNOTS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
SOUTH COAST. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED IN SOME AREAS.

MAINTAINED A LIMITED MENTION OF THUNDER...AS CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS
ARE MARGINAL...SI VALUES WILL BE JUST ABOVE ZERO AND K INDEX WILL BE
IN THE LOW 30S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

UPPER LOW WILL SWING THE SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO WEST AND PCPN
SHOULD COME TO AN END AROUND THE TIME THAT SANTA ARRIVES.

CHRISTMAS DAY... WEST WINDS WILL BRING A DRYING OF THE AIRMASS
DURING THE DAY. SO THE TREND SHOULD BE TO AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING.
SUFFICIENT COLD ADVECTION AT ALL LEVELS THURSDAY WILL ALLOW SOME
MIXING.  WINDS IN THE SFC-850 MB LAYER WILL BE 30-40 KNOTS AND
POSSIBLY A LITTLE HIGHER...WHICH WOULD REQUIRE A WIND ADVISORY FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY
AND BRING A SUNNY DAY. THE NEXT PACIFIC SHORTWAVE APPROACHES
SATURDAY AND SHOULD BRING INCREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST ALONG
WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND AT
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THROUGH 00Z...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO
OVERSPREAD EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AND EVENTUALLY OVERSPREAD THE INTERIOR
THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS THIS AFTERNOON. MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTH AND
WEST OF CAPE COD CANAL...RAIN SHOWERS SOUTH AND EAST. LOCALIZED
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE JUST INLAND FROM THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND
COAST...WHERE SNOW IS FALLING.

TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MVFR CONDITIONS DOMINATE
IN LOWER CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN SNOW SHOWERS. PRECIPITATION
AFFECTS MAINLY EASTERN NEW ENGLAND BUT STILL SOME SCATTERED
ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
NORTH AND WEST OF CAPE COD CANAL...RAIN SHOWERS SOUTH AND EAST.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. FLURRIES AND SNOW
SHOWERS MAY AFFECT THE TERMINAL BY 21Z.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...MVFR CIGS CONTINUE IN RI/EASTERN MASS IN
MARINE EAST FLOW. VFR IN THE WEST.

TUESDAY...VFR WITH SCATTERED MVFR IN ANY RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS LOWERING TO IFR IN RAIN/HEAVY RAIN. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EAST-SOUTHEST
SURFACE WINDS MAY GUST TO 35 KNOTS ALONG THE EAST MASSACHUSETTS
COAST. WINDS AT 2000 FEET AGL WILL REACH 50-60 KNOTS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY NIGHT CREATING LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONCERNS.

CHRISTMAS DAY...WEST WIND GUSTING 30-40 KNOTS. CONDITIONS IMPROVING
TO VFR AS THE WIND BRINGS IN COOLER DRIER AIR.
&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS QUEBEC WILL RESULT IN
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS WITH SEAS BETWEEN 2 AND 4 FEET ARE
EXPECTED FOR MOST WATERS...SO NO HEADLINES PLANNED.

THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY THAT A BRIEF SURGE OF NORTHEAST WIND
GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS WITH MARGINAL 5 FOOT SEAS COULD AFFECT OUR
NORTHERN WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUN MORNING...BUT NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO ISSUE ANY HEADLINES AT THIS POINT.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING AROUND 15
KNOTS OR LESS.  SEAS WILL HOLD AROUND 3-4 FEET.

TUESDAY... INCREASING EAST WINDS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5-6 FEET ON THE EXPOSED WATERS.  A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

WEDNESDAY...RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES PRODUCING POOR VISIBILITY.
INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS 20-25 SUSTAINED AND 40 KNOT GUSTS.  WINDS
SHOULD SHIFT TO SOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SOUTHWEST TOWARD THURSDAY
MORNING. RAIN WILL TAPER OFF WITH THE WIND SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST. SEAS
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD WITH 5-10 FEET HEIGHTS ON THE EXPOSED WATERS.
A GALE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

CHRISTMAS DAY... WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST 35-40
KNOTS...SO A GALE WARNING MAY CONTINUE TO BE NEEDED. SEAS OF 10-15
FEET ARE POSSIBLE ON THE EXPOSED WATERS...AND 5 FEET IS POSSIBLE ON
SOME OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL OCCUR
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. BREAKING IT DOWN...ON TUESDAY HIGH TIDE
AT BOSTON WILL BE 11.6 FT. THERE WILL BE EAST WINDS DURING THIS
HIGH TIDE ALLOWING FOR MINOR SPLASHOVER ALONG THE MASS COAST. IF
WIND GUSTS INCREASE THEN COULD POSSIBLE SEE MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING.

ON WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL SWITCH TO A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DURING
THE DAY AND INCREASE QUICKLY DUE TO THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE IN BOSTON IS 11.7 FT...AND AN
APPRECIABLE EAST OR SOUTHEAST WIND SHOULD PUSH LEVELS HIGHER THAN ON
TUESDAY.  THIS WOULD PROBABLY BE THE BEST CHACNE OF MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING ALONG THE EAST COAST.

THE WEDNESDAY EVENING HIGH TIDE WILL BE A LITTLE LOWER...BUT THE
WIND BECOMES SOUTH WITH 50-60 KNOTS AT 2000 FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE
AVAILABLE TO BE BROUGHT DOWN IN GUSTS. HIGH TIDE IN PROVIDENCE WILL
BE 5.2 FT. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING COULD OCCUR ALONG THE SOUTH
COASTS OF RI AND MASS...AND COULD BE CHANNELED IN NORTH-SOUTH AXIS
BAYS SUCH AS NARRAGANSETT BAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/RLG
NEAR TERM...RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/RLG
MARINE...WTB/RLG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 202147
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
447 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE REGION
FROM EAST TO WEST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUN. WEAK LOW PRESSURE
WILL PASS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND BRINGING ANOTHER PERIOD OF
PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. A MUCH STRONGER STORM
PASSING WEST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY
WINDS AND COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRY BUT VERY WINDY CONDITIONS FOLLOW FOR
CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE TO A
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS WILL PROVIDE A
FOCUS FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS
BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT.  WHILE SNOW
SHOWERS MAY REACH INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT...A COASTAL FRONT
WILL DEVELOP...AIDING IN FOCUSING SHOWERS ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
MASSACHUSETTS.

SNOW SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT AS THE LOW LEVELS
MOISTEN UP A BIT MORE. LOOKS LIKE IT WILL LIKELY BE WARM ENOUGH
ACROSS THE CAPE AND SOUTHEASTERN PLYMOUTH COUNTY FOR SHOWERS TO BE
RAIN RATHER THAN SNOW.

OVERALL...EXPECTING 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW AT MOST ACROSS EASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND.  THERE ARE SEVERAL POTENTIAL PLACES
WHERE LOCALIZED SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS /POSSIBLY UP TO 2-4 INCHES/
ARE POSSIBLE.  LOOKING AT THE HIGH RES MODELS...EITHER ACROSS ESSEX
COUNTY AND CAPE ANN...EASTERN NORFOLK COUNTY INTO NORTHERN PLYMOUTH
COUNTY...OR BOTH. THEN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WORCESTER COUNTY AND
PROVIDENCE COUNTY MAY SEE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS GIVEN THE UPSLOPE
COMPONENT OF THE WINDS.

SOME OF THE HIGH RES MODELS HAVE A DECENT CLIP OF QPF INTO ESSEX
COUNTY...WHILE OTHERS HAVE NOTHING IN THE SAME AREA.  FOR NORFOLK
AND PLYMOUTH COUNTY...WE MAY SEE A BIT OF OCEAN ENHANCEMENT THAT
RAISES SNOW AMOUNTS IN THOSE AREAS.  DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY AND THE
LOCALIZED NATURE OF THE POTENTIAL HIGHER AMOUNTS...AM OPTING NOT TO
ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. INSTEAD...REISSUED THE SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT FOR SNOW. ANYONE OUT AND ABOUT THIS EVENING IN
EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS WILL WANT TO USE CAUTION AS THERE MAY BE
SLIPPERY PATCHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING HOURS...THEN TAPER
OFF AS INVERTED TROUGH PULLS AWAY FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN.  MOST LIKELY AREAS FOR CONTINUING
SHOWERS WILL BE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EAST COAST OF MASSACHUSETTS.

AS THE DAY GOES ON...EXPECT A SLOW DRYING TREND AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION.  CLOUDS WILL STICK AROUND WITH TEMPS
GENERALLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

BIG PICTURE... SHORTWAVE ENTERING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST CROSSES THE
ROCKIES OVER THE WEEKEND DRIVEN BY A 160-KNOT JET.  THIS DIGS A
SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS MONDAY-TUESDAY WHILE PACIFIC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. THIS IN TURN WILL ALLOW AN
UPPER RIDGE TO BUILD ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST AND SLOWLY SHIFT EAST
OF THE COAST.  THE JET ENERGY WORKS ITS WAY AROUND THE BASE OF THE
PLAINS TROUGH AND MOVES UP THE APPALACHANS MIDWEEK.  THIS SUPPORTS A
TRANSITION OF THE TROUGH TO NEGATIVE TILT AND SLOWER MOVEMENT...WITH
WARM MOIST AIR FOR THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE TROUGH AXIS SWINGS OVER
NEW ENGLAND CHRISTMAS DAY FOLLOWED BY A WEAK RIDGE. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE MOVES ASHORE FROM THE PACIFIC MIDWEEK AND MOVES ACROSS THE
PLAINS BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND APPROACHES THE NORTHEAST USA
SATURDAY.

THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN DETAILS AMONG THE LONG RANGE MODELS...BUT
ALL SHOW A SIMILAR SCENARIO BOTH FOR THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM AND THE END
OF WEEK SYSTEM.  WE USED A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF.

THE DAILIES...

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY... HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NORTH OF THE REGION
BRINGING A MOIST EAST FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. UPPER
PATTERN SHOWS WEAK RIDGING AS THE PLAINS TROUGH DIGS...BUT SURFACE
FIELDS SUGGEST A LINGERING INVERTED TROUGH ALONG OR JUST OFFSHORE.
THIS SHOULD MAINTAIN CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS. COULD BE SOME DRIZZLE OR
FLURRIES NEAR THE EAST COAST BUT SUPPORTING LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS
LACKING SO PCPN SHOULD BE LIMITED.

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY... LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG A STALLED WARM
FRONT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. AS THE LOW DEVELOPS...IT BRINGS
AN INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT AGAINST HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
THROUGH THE MARITIMES. THE RESULT WILL BE A STRENGTHENING LOW
LEVEL EAST- SOUTHEAST JET. THIS WILL INCREASE THE MOIST INFLOW
OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ALSO...AS THE JET CONVERGES ON THE
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH IT WILL GENERATE INCREASED LOW LEVEL LIFT
AND INCREASE THE CHANCE OF PCPN. WE WILL HAVE CLOUDS AND CHANCE
POPS. TEMPS IN NORTHWEST MASS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH SO THAT THERE
MAY BE A MIX OF PCPN TYPES DURING THE MORNING.

TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY... PLAINS UPPER TROUGH DIGS DEEPER AND MOVES
EAST...PUSHING THE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR EAST. ALSO...THE STRONG UPPER
SOUTHWEST JET MOVES UP OVER THE EASTERN USA. THIS SETUP WILL TAKE
THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW UP THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
SECONDARY LOWS FORMING ON THE SYSTEM COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. A SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL JET
WILL MOVE UP THE ATLANTIC COAST ON WEDNESDAY AND OVER THE TOP OF THE
EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW AT THE SURFACE. THE RESULT WILL BE PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL LIFT THE GENERATE PCPN.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO EXCEED 1.5 INCHES...WHICH
IS 3 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR DECEMBER.  THIS MEANS A LOT OF
WATER AVAILABLE AS PCPN. TEMPERATURE PROFILES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING
SO PTYPE SHOULD BE RAIN. MODEL QPF SHOWS POTENTIAL RAINFALL OF OVER
2 INCHES. THIS WOULD SUGGEST POTENTIAL URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING
ISSUES WEDNESDAY.

STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE ECMWF SHOWS EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS 30-35 KNOTS ALONG HE
EAST MASS COAST AT 1000 MB. THEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT WINDS AT 925 MB
INCREASE TO 60-75 KNOTS AND MOVE ACROSS COASTAL RI AND SOUTHEAST
MASS. STRONG DOWNPOURS MAY OVERCOME THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION AND
BRING STRONG GUSTS OF AT LEAST 30-40 KNOTS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
SOUTH COAST. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED IN SOME AREAS.

MAINTAINED A LIMITED MENTION OF THUNDER...AS CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS
ARE MARGINAL...SI VALUES WILL BE JUST ABOVE ZERO AND K INDEX WILL BE
IN THE LOW 30S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

UPPER LOW WILL SWING THE SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO WEST AND PCPN
SHOULD COME TO AN END AROUND THE TIME THAT SANTA ARRIVES.

CHRISTMAS DAY... WEST WINDS WILL BRING A DRYING OF THE AIRMASS
DURING THE DAY. SO THE TREND SHOULD BE TO AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING.
SUFFICIENT COLD ADVECTION AT ALL LEVELS THURSDAY WILL ALLOW SOME
MIXING.  WINDS IN THE SFC-850 MB LAYER WILL BE 30-40 KNOTS AND
POSSIBLY A LITTLE HIGHER...WHICH WOULD REQUIRE A WIND ADVISORY FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY
AND BRING A SUNNY DAY. THE NEXT PACIFIC SHORTWAVE APPROACHES
SATURDAY AND SHOULD BRING INCREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST ALONG
WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND AT
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THROUGH 00Z...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO
OVERSPREAD EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AND EVENTUALLY OVERSPREAD THE INTERIOR
THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS THIS AFTERNOON. MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTH AND
WEST OF CAPE COD CANAL...RAIN SHOWERS SOUTH AND EAST. LOCALIZED
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE JUST INLAND FROM THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND
COAST...WHERE SNOW IS FALLING.

TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MVFR CONDITIONS DOMINATE
IN LOWER CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN SNOW SHOWERS. PRECIPITATION
AFFECTS MAINLY EASTERN NEW ENGLAND BUT STILL SOME SCATTERED
ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
NORTH AND WEST OF CAPE COD CANAL...RAIN SHOWERS SOUTH AND EAST.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. FLURRIES AND SNOW
SHOWERS MAY AFFECT THE TERMINAL BY 21Z.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...MVFR CIGS CONTINUE IN RI/EASTERN MASS IN
MARINE EAST FLOW. VFR IN THE WEST.

TUESDAY...VFR WITH SCATTERED MVFR IN ANY RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS LOWERING TO IFR IN RAIN/HEAVY RAIN. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EAST-SOUTHEST
SURFACE WINDS MAY GUST TO 35 KNOTS ALONG THE EAST MASSACHUSETTS
COAST. WINDS AT 2000 FEET AGL WILL REACH 50-60 KNOTS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY NIGHT CREATING LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONCERNS.

CHRISTMAS DAY...WEST WIND GUSTING 30-40 KNOTS. CONDITIONS IMPROVING
TO VFR AS THE WIND BRINGS IN COOLER DRIER AIR.
&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS QUEBEC WILL RESULT IN
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS WITH SEAS BETWEEN 2 AND 4 FEET ARE
EXPECTED FOR MOST WATERS...SO NO HEADLINES PLANNED.

THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY THAT A BRIEF SURGE OF NORTHEAST WIND
GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS WITH MARGINAL 5 FOOT SEAS COULD AFFECT OUR
NORTHERN WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUN MORNING...BUT NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO ISSUE ANY HEADLINES AT THIS POINT.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING AROUND 15
KNOTS OR LESS.  SEAS WILL HOLD AROUND 3-4 FEET.

TUESDAY... INCREASING EAST WINDS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5-6 FEET ON THE EXPOSED WATERS.  A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

WEDNESDAY...RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES PRODUCING POOR VISIBILITY.
INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS 20-25 SUSTAINED AND 40 KNOT GUSTS.  WINDS
SHOULD SHIFT TO SOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SOUTHWEST TOWARD THURSDAY
MORNING. RAIN WILL TAPER OFF WITH THE WIND SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST. SEAS
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD WITH 5-10 FEET HEIGHTS ON THE EXPOSED WATERS.
A GALE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

CHRISTMAS DAY... WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST 35-40
KNOTS...SO A GALE WARNING MAY CONTINUE TO BE NEEDED. SEAS OF 10-15
FEET ARE POSSIBLE ON THE EXPOSED WATERS...AND 5 FEET IS POSSIBLE ON
SOME OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL OCCUR
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. BREAKING IT DOWN...ON TUESDAY HIGH TIDE
AT BOSTON WILL BE 11.6 FT. THERE WILL BE EAST WINDS DURING THIS
HIGH TIDE ALLOWING FOR MINOR SPLASHOVER ALONG THE MASS COAST. IF
WIND GUSTS INCREASE THEN COULD POSSIBLE SEE MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING.

ON WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL SWITCH TO A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DURING
THE DAY AND INCREASE QUICKLY DUE TO THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE IN BOSTON IS 11.7 FT...AND AN
APPRECIABLE EAST OR SOUTHEAST WIND SHOULD PUSH LEVELS HIGHER THAN ON
TUESDAY.  THIS WOULD PROBABLY BE THE BEST CHACNE OF MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING ALONG THE EAST COAST.

THE WEDNESDAY EVENING HIGH TIDE WILL BE A LITTLE LOWER...BUT THE
WIND BECOMES SOUTH WITH 50-60 KNOTS AT 2000 FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE
AVAILABLE TO BE BROUGHT DOWN IN GUSTS. HIGH TIDE IN PROVIDENCE WILL
BE 5.2 FT. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING COULD OCCUR ALONG THE SOUTH
COASTS OF RI AND MASS...AND COULD BE CHANNELED IN NORTH-SOUTH AXIS
BAYS SUCH AS NARRAGANSETT BAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/RLG
NEAR TERM...RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/RLG
MARINE...WTB/RLG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KOKX 202056
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
356 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY
STATIONARY TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES MONDAY
AFTERNOON...AND REMAINS SOUTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. A STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ENDING EARLY CHRISTMAS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL AFFECT THE
REGION NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
CLOUD COVER AND A NLY FLOW TODAY KEPT TEMPS IN CHECK WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO THE LOWER 30S. THE LAST
DAY OF AUTUMN WILL FINISH AS ONE OF THE COLDEST. WINTER SOLSTICE
IS 603 PM SUNDAY EVENING.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY
THIS EVENING. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE COLD AIR SUPPLY WITH LIGHT
NLY WINDS. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO REMAIN TRAPPED BENEATH A
STRONG INVERSION AT APPROXIMATELY 900 MB. THUS...LOOKING AT
CONTINUED CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING
TOO FAST WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 20S WELL INLAND TO AROUND
30 AT THE COAST.

A SHORT WAVE TROF OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. THIS COUPLED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH LIFT FOR SNOW FLURRIES OR VERY
LIGHT SNOW...WITH THE BEST CHANCE BEING ACROSS EASTERN LI AND SE
CT. LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS FORECAST. THERE COULD ALSO
BE SOME RAIN MIXED IN AND/OR FREEZING RAIN WITH LACK A ICE
CRYSTALS IN THE CLOUD BEARING LAYER. OFTEN THOUGH ALONG THE
COAST...SEA SALT CAN LOWER THE ACTIVATION TEMP OF ICE NUCLEI.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MORNING FLURRIES AND/OR SPRINKLES WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTIAL
CLEARING BY AFT AS SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN ALOFT. FAR
EASTERN LI AND SE CT COULD STAY MOSTLY CLOUDY ALL DAY DUE TO
DEEPER MOISTURE IN PLACE BENEATH AN INVERSION.

HIGHS ON SUN WILL APPROACH 40 ALONG THE COAST,,,BUT A FEW DEGREES
COOLER INLAND. THIS COULD VARY BASED ON THE EXTENT OF CLEARING.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...WITH LOW-LEVEL NLY WINDS GRADUALLY VEERING SUN NIGHT.
LOWS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE 20S SUN NIGHT...BUT THE EXTENT OF
THE CLOUD COVER REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AS THE FLOW BECOMES
MORE NE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST
MONDAY...AND WILL BE ON A DEVELOPING WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS LOW
REMAINS WEAK AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES SLOWLY NORTH MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. MEANWHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND INTO SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA WEAKENS. AT THE UPPER LEVELS A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH DEVELOPS
MONDAY FRONT CENTRAL CANADA INTO MEXICO WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENING IN THE UPPER MIDWEST. DURING WEDNESDAY THE TROUGH BECOMES
NEGATIVE WITH THE LOW MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE
WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. SO WITH WEAK LIFT DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT WILL
KEEP CHANCE POPS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY. GUIDANCE IS NO
LONGER DEEPENING WITH COASTAL LOW AND KEEP THE LOW OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AS THE PRIMARY LOW WITH THE NEGATIVE TROUGH. AS THE LOWS COLD
FRONT APPROACHES LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...A STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET TO NEAR 70 KT DEVELOPS. WITH A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW
LIMITING MIXING STRONG GUSTY WIND WILL BE LIMITED. HOWEVER THE LOW
LEVEL JET WILL PROVIDE STRONG LIFT DURING WEDNESDAY AND PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. WARMING OCCURS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH ALL LIQUID DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. BEFORE
THAT...MONDAY NIGHT...SOME LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE
INLAND...HOWEVER NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. THE THERMAL PROFILE
OF THE GFS WAS SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE 20/00Z ECMWF AND USED A
BLEND FOR P-TYPE.

AS THE PARENT LOW MOVES INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION AFTER 05Z INTO
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...PASSING JUST EAST OF THE AREA AROUND 12Z
THURSDAY. WITH TIMING CONSISTENCY HAVE KEPT THE LIKELY AND
CATEGORICAL POPS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

IN THE COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY AND WITH CYCLONIC WEST
TO NORTHWEST FLOW...STRONG AND GUSTY WIND WILL BE LIKELY. HAVE KEPT
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR NOW...HOWEVER GUSTS COULD BE CLOSE TO 45
KT AT TIMES THURSDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS. THEN FOR
NEXT WEEKEND ANOTHER INLAND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
AND DEPARTS EARLY IN THE WEEK.

MAINLY MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 2-3 KFT. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF
VFR CIGS THROUGH THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY NYC METRO. INCREASING
CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD BKN-OVC MVFR CIGS 2-3 KFT TONIGHT. LIGHT SNOW
AND/OR FLURRIES POSSIBLE FOR KGON/KISP/KBDR TONIGHT.

POSSIBLE RETURN TO PREDOMINATELY VFR CIGS LATE SUNDAY MORNING FOR
NYC METRO.

NORTHERLY WINDS 5 KFT OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.SUNDAY AFTERNOON-SUN NIGHT...MAINLY VFR CIGS...ALTHOUGH MVFR CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.
.MON-MON NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN E FLOW. CHC OF RAIN.
.TUE-TUE NIGHT...IFR LIKELY IN RAIN...CIGS AND VSBYS. E WINDS 10-20
KT...BECOMING SE.
.WED...HIGH IMPACT EVENT POSSIBLE...IFR LIKELY WITH HEAVY RAIN AND
GUSTY SE WINDS 25KT+ SHIFTING TO SW LATE WED.
.THU...SUB VFR EARLY IN SHOWERS...THEN VFR WITH GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS
20-25 KT G40 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING NORTH OF THE WATERS...CAN EXPECT NORTH
WINDS 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH SEAS GENERALLY
1-2 FT ON THE OCEAN OR 1 FT OR LESS ON ALL OTHER WATERS.

A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS...WITH SEAS ALSO
REMAINING BELOW 5 FT. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA
WATERS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW. SMALL CRAFT WIND
AND SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT...AND ACROSS ALL THE WATERS WEDNESDAY. THEN IN THE COLDER AIR
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY WIND GUSTS WILL BE GALE FORCE ACROSS
ALL THE WATERS AND REMAIN INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTS DIMINISHING
TOWARD FRIDAY MORNING...WITH GUSTS BELOW SMALL CRAFT LATER WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS WILL REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD TOTAL 1
TO 2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. MUCH OF THE RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MINOR URBAN AND
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MET/DW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...MET/DW
HYDROLOGY...MET/DW








000
FXUS61 KALY 202033
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
333 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...WHILE
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION. THESE UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES WILL BRING AREAS OF CLOUDS THROUGH MONDAY...AND
PERHAPS SOME FLURRIES FOR SOUTHEAST AREAS LATE TONIGHT. UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH
A PERIOD OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 330 PM THIS AFTERNOON...CLOUDS COVERED THE SOUTHWESTERN
HALF OF THE FA WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
HALF OF THE FA. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF
THE FA THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL BE THE FOCUSING
MECHANISM FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW TO BACK IN ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES AND
LITCHFIELD HILLS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP
AS MUCH AS THEY DID LAST NIGHT. EXPECT LOW TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE
MID TEENS NORTHWEST TO MID 20S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LINGERING SNOW WILL END ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD
HILLS BY MID DAY SUNDAY. ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE VERY LIGHT WITH
A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH UP TO AN INCH TOTAL. THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY IS EXPECTED TO BE CLOUDY ACROSS THE FA AS LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS
REMAIN IN PLACE TRAPPING MOISTURE BENEATH THEM. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 30S
SOUTHEAST.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
AS MOISTURE STARTS TO LIFT NORTHWARD FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
ON MONDAY AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. WHILE IT WILL BE DRY...CLOUDS WILL BE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S AND
HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE 30S.

ON MONDAY NIGHT MOISTURE STARTS TO OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA AS
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA WITH
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST.
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FA WITH A PLETHORA OF
PCPN TYPES MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA WITH
MAINLY SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA. PCPN SHOULD START
AS SNOW IN ALL AREAS BEFORE THE TRANSITION OCCURS DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA.
PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT SOME LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET MIXING IN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FA. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE TRICKY WITH NOT MUCH OF A DROP FROM
DAYTIME HIGHS ON MONDAY. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE MID
20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...PUNCTUATED BY A STRONG STORM SYSTEM TRACKING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE MAIN STORM
SYSTEM...A PERSISTENT MOIST FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC AND OVERRUNNING
WILL ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TUE AND TUE
NT. A SURGE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF A LEAD UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE
SHOULD ALLOW FOR A GREATER AREAL COVERAGE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION FOR
TUESDAY...ESP IN THE MORNING. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THAT THE
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION WOULD BE LIGHT SNOW OR A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF
SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO MAINLY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE BY LATE TUESDAY IN
MOST AREAS. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING
RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD LINGER INTO LATE TUE OR TUE EVE
ACROSS SOME SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE LAKE GEORGE REGION AND SOUTHERN
VT...AND POSSIBLY EASTERN BERKSHIRE CO. EXPECT TEMPS TO SLOWLY RISE
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S BY LATE TUESDAY. FOR TUE NT...MOST TEMPS
SHOULD HOLD NEARLY STEADY IN THE 30S.

THE MAIN STORM SHOULD IMPACT THE REGION WED INTO WED NT...ALTHOUGH
TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN THE LONG TERM GUIDANCE...AND THE
HANDLING OF POTENTIAL SFC WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG A COLD/OCCLUDED
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A NARROW COLD FRONTAL RAIN BAND
WILL LIKELY IMMEDIATELY PRECEDE/ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...AND COULD EVEN
CONTAIN SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER. MOST LONG TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT THIS FRONT PASSES THROUGH BETWEEN 00Z-06Z/THU. THE 12Z/20 ECMWF
SEEMS TO BE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. IN FACT...IT ACTUALLY ALLOWS COLDER AIR TO MOVE INTO
PORTIONS OF THE REGION AS THE TRAILING STRATIFORM PORTION OF THE
NARROW COLD FRONTAL BAND PASSES THROUGH...WITH SOME SUGGESTION OF
PRECIP ENDING AS SNOW...AT LEAST ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE
GFS/GEFS ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND LESS EMPHATIC WITH WAVE
DEVELOPMENT AND ANY SNOW/MIXED PRECIP. AT THIS TIME...HAVE INDICATED
SOME TRANSITION LATE AT NIGHT TO RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN VALLEYS...AND
MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

RAINFALL COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY WED-WED NT...WITH TOTAL QPF RANGING
FROM 0.75-1.5 INCHES...ALTHOUGH HIGHER AMTS WOULD BE POSSIBLE...ESP
SHOULD ANY WAVE DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND SLOW DOWN THE FORWARD
MOTION OF ANY FRONTAL RAIN BAND. THIS HEAVY RAINFALL...COMBINED WITH
SNOWMELT DUE TO STRONG WINDS AND MILD TEMPERATURES/HIGH
DEWPOINTS...COULD LEAD TO SOME HYDROLOGIC ISSUES INCLUDING MINOR
FLOODING. SEE THE HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS.

WINDS WILL ALSO BE QUITE STRONG ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS/CATSKILLS...AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WHERE GUSTS OF
30-40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR EVEN HIGHER
GUSTS. IN VALLEYS...BOUNDARY LAYER STABILITY MAY LIMIT HOW MUCH WIND
REACHES THE SURFACE...BUT WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO ASSESS THIS CLOSER
TO THE EVENT. SOME STRONGER GUSTS COULD ALSO OCCUR WITHIN ANY TALLER
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS AHEAD OF AND WITH THE ACTUAL FRONT AS WELL. MAX
TEMPS ON WED WILL BE TRICKY...AS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT RAPID
WARMING WELL INTO THE 50S COULD OCCUR AS A WARM FRONT TRANSLATES
NORTHWARD. THIS POTENTIAL WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT. FOR WED NT/THU AM...TEMPS SHOULD EVENTUALLY FALL
BACK INTO THE 30S IN VALLEYS...AND POSSIBLY SOME UPPER 20S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

IN THE WAKE OF THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM...WINDY AND MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR THURSDAY...WITH SNOW SHOWERS PREVALENT
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90.
WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AS WELL. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH DAYTIME MAXES REACHING THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

RISING HEIGHTS IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
DECREASING TREND IN AREAL COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR THU NT AND
ESP FRI. THU NT/FRI AM MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 20S TO AROUND
30...WITH MAX TEMPS FRI MAINLY IN THE LOWER 40S IN VALLEYS AND 30S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS FOR FRI NT/SAT AM
FALLING INTO THE 20S AND LOWER 30S. AND ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM COULD
BRING SOME RAIN OR SNOW TO THE REGION BY NEXT WEEKEND...WITH MAX
TEMPS REACHING 35-40 IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 30S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION
LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BEING DRAWN NORTHWEST FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND WEAK
DYNAMICS FROM THE DISTURBANCE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH....MAY BRING
SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES TO SOME OF THE TAF SITES LATER
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

OVERALL FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD TREND TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF KPSF...WHERE MVFR CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE. VFR LEVEL
CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LOWER INTO THE MVFR RANGE LATER
TONIGHT...AND PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY.

THE CHANCE FOR SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WILL INCREASE
LATER TONIGHT...MAINLY FOR KPSF/KPOU...WITH TIMING OF POSSIBLE
DEVELOPMENT MAINLY AFTER 08Z-10Z/SUN AND LINGERING UNTIL AT LEAST
14Z-16Z/SUNDAY. A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THESE TIMES. IT IS MORE UNCERTAIN WHETHER ANY
LIGHT SNOW WILL REACH KALB AND KGFL. FOR NOW...HAVE INDICATED
A CHANCE AT KALB...BUT RADAR TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED
OVERNIGHT IN CASE THE AREAL EXPANSION OF ANY LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES
REACHES FURTHER N.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE N TO NE AT GENERALLY 5-10 KT THIS
AFTERNOON...TRENDING TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN...SLEET...DZ.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY DEFINITE RA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...RA.
CHRISTMAS DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 0.75 INCH TO 1.5 INCHES ARE LIKELY ALONG WITH
SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT WHICH RAISES THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING
AND SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES OF LARGER STEM RIVERS. MMEFS
GUIDANCE POINTS TO MANY POINTS AT LEAST REACHING ACTION STAGE
AND HAS GVVN6 HAVING A HIGH PROBABILITY FROM THE GEFS AND NAEFS
GUIDANCE OF REACHING MINOR FLOOD STAGE ON CHRISTMAS DAY. TOO EARLY
TO ISSUE ANY FLOOD WATCHES...HOWEVER WILL MENTION IN THE HWO AT
THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
HYDROLOGY...11








000
FXUS61 KALY 202033
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
333 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...WHILE
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION. THESE UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES WILL BRING AREAS OF CLOUDS THROUGH MONDAY...AND
PERHAPS SOME FLURRIES FOR SOUTHEAST AREAS LATE TONIGHT. UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH
A PERIOD OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 330 PM THIS AFTERNOON...CLOUDS COVERED THE SOUTHWESTERN
HALF OF THE FA WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
HALF OF THE FA. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF
THE FA THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL BE THE FOCUSING
MECHANISM FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW TO BACK IN ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES AND
LITCHFIELD HILLS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP
AS MUCH AS THEY DID LAST NIGHT. EXPECT LOW TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE
MID TEENS NORTHWEST TO MID 20S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LINGERING SNOW WILL END ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD
HILLS BY MID DAY SUNDAY. ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE VERY LIGHT WITH
A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH UP TO AN INCH TOTAL. THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY IS EXPECTED TO BE CLOUDY ACROSS THE FA AS LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS
REMAIN IN PLACE TRAPPING MOISTURE BENEATH THEM. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 30S
SOUTHEAST.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
AS MOISTURE STARTS TO LIFT NORTHWARD FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
ON MONDAY AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. WHILE IT WILL BE DRY...CLOUDS WILL BE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S AND
HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE 30S.

ON MONDAY NIGHT MOISTURE STARTS TO OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA AS
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA WITH
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST.
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FA WITH A PLETHORA OF
PCPN TYPES MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA WITH
MAINLY SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA. PCPN SHOULD START
AS SNOW IN ALL AREAS BEFORE THE TRANSITION OCCURS DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA.
PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT SOME LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET MIXING IN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FA. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE TRICKY WITH NOT MUCH OF A DROP FROM
DAYTIME HIGHS ON MONDAY. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE MID
20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...PUNCTUATED BY A STRONG STORM SYSTEM TRACKING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE MAIN STORM
SYSTEM...A PERSISTENT MOIST FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC AND OVERRUNNING
WILL ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TUE AND TUE
NT. A SURGE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF A LEAD UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE
SHOULD ALLOW FOR A GREATER AREAL COVERAGE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION FOR
TUESDAY...ESP IN THE MORNING. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THAT THE
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION WOULD BE LIGHT SNOW OR A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF
SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO MAINLY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE BY LATE TUESDAY IN
MOST AREAS. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING
RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD LINGER INTO LATE TUE OR TUE EVE
ACROSS SOME SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE LAKE GEORGE REGION AND SOUTHERN
VT...AND POSSIBLY EASTERN BERKSHIRE CO. EXPECT TEMPS TO SLOWLY RISE
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S BY LATE TUESDAY. FOR TUE NT...MOST TEMPS
SHOULD HOLD NEARLY STEADY IN THE 30S.

THE MAIN STORM SHOULD IMPACT THE REGION WED INTO WED NT...ALTHOUGH
TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN THE LONG TERM GUIDANCE...AND THE
HANDLING OF POTENTIAL SFC WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG A COLD/OCCLUDED
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A NARROW COLD FRONTAL RAIN BAND
WILL LIKELY IMMEDIATELY PRECEDE/ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...AND COULD EVEN
CONTAIN SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER. MOST LONG TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT THIS FRONT PASSES THROUGH BETWEEN 00Z-06Z/THU. THE 12Z/20 ECMWF
SEEMS TO BE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. IN FACT...IT ACTUALLY ALLOWS COLDER AIR TO MOVE INTO
PORTIONS OF THE REGION AS THE TRAILING STRATIFORM PORTION OF THE
NARROW COLD FRONTAL BAND PASSES THROUGH...WITH SOME SUGGESTION OF
PRECIP ENDING AS SNOW...AT LEAST ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE
GFS/GEFS ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND LESS EMPHATIC WITH WAVE
DEVELOPMENT AND ANY SNOW/MIXED PRECIP. AT THIS TIME...HAVE INDICATED
SOME TRANSITION LATE AT NIGHT TO RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN VALLEYS...AND
MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

RAINFALL COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY WED-WED NT...WITH TOTAL QPF RANGING
FROM 0.75-1.5 INCHES...ALTHOUGH HIGHER AMTS WOULD BE POSSIBLE...ESP
SHOULD ANY WAVE DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND SLOW DOWN THE FORWARD
MOTION OF ANY FRONTAL RAIN BAND. THIS HEAVY RAINFALL...COMBINED WITH
SNOWMELT DUE TO STRONG WINDS AND MILD TEMPERATURES/HIGH
DEWPOINTS...COULD LEAD TO SOME HYDROLOGIC ISSUES INCLUDING MINOR
FLOODING. SEE THE HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS.

WINDS WILL ALSO BE QUITE STRONG ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS/CATSKILLS...AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WHERE GUSTS OF
30-40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR EVEN HIGHER
GUSTS. IN VALLEYS...BOUNDARY LAYER STABILITY MAY LIMIT HOW MUCH WIND
REACHES THE SURFACE...BUT WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO ASSESS THIS CLOSER
TO THE EVENT. SOME STRONGER GUSTS COULD ALSO OCCUR WITHIN ANY TALLER
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS AHEAD OF AND WITH THE ACTUAL FRONT AS WELL. MAX
TEMPS ON WED WILL BE TRICKY...AS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT RAPID
WARMING WELL INTO THE 50S COULD OCCUR AS A WARM FRONT TRANSLATES
NORTHWARD. THIS POTENTIAL WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT. FOR WED NT/THU AM...TEMPS SHOULD EVENTUALLY FALL
BACK INTO THE 30S IN VALLEYS...AND POSSIBLY SOME UPPER 20S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

IN THE WAKE OF THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM...WINDY AND MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR THURSDAY...WITH SNOW SHOWERS PREVALENT
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90.
WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AS WELL. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH DAYTIME MAXES REACHING THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

RISING HEIGHTS IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
DECREASING TREND IN AREAL COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR THU NT AND
ESP FRI. THU NT/FRI AM MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 20S TO AROUND
30...WITH MAX TEMPS FRI MAINLY IN THE LOWER 40S IN VALLEYS AND 30S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS FOR FRI NT/SAT AM
FALLING INTO THE 20S AND LOWER 30S. AND ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM COULD
BRING SOME RAIN OR SNOW TO THE REGION BY NEXT WEEKEND...WITH MAX
TEMPS REACHING 35-40 IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 30S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION
LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BEING DRAWN NORTHWEST FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND WEAK
DYNAMICS FROM THE DISTURBANCE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH....MAY BRING
SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES TO SOME OF THE TAF SITES LATER
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

OVERALL FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD TREND TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF KPSF...WHERE MVFR CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE. VFR LEVEL
CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LOWER INTO THE MVFR RANGE LATER
TONIGHT...AND PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY.

THE CHANCE FOR SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WILL INCREASE
LATER TONIGHT...MAINLY FOR KPSF/KPOU...WITH TIMING OF POSSIBLE
DEVELOPMENT MAINLY AFTER 08Z-10Z/SUN AND LINGERING UNTIL AT LEAST
14Z-16Z/SUNDAY. A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THESE TIMES. IT IS MORE UNCERTAIN WHETHER ANY
LIGHT SNOW WILL REACH KALB AND KGFL. FOR NOW...HAVE INDICATED
A CHANCE AT KALB...BUT RADAR TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED
OVERNIGHT IN CASE THE AREAL EXPANSION OF ANY LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES
REACHES FURTHER N.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE N TO NE AT GENERALLY 5-10 KT THIS
AFTERNOON...TRENDING TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN...SLEET...DZ.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY DEFINITE RA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...RA.
CHRISTMAS DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 0.75 INCH TO 1.5 INCHES ARE LIKELY ALONG WITH
SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT WHICH RAISES THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING
AND SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES OF LARGER STEM RIVERS. MMEFS
GUIDANCE POINTS TO MANY POINTS AT LEAST REACHING ACTION STAGE
AND HAS GVVN6 HAVING A HIGH PROBABILITY FROM THE GEFS AND NAEFS
GUIDANCE OF REACHING MINOR FLOOD STAGE ON CHRISTMAS DAY. TOO EARLY
TO ISSUE ANY FLOOD WATCHES...HOWEVER WILL MENTION IN THE HWO AT
THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
HYDROLOGY...11







000
FXUS61 KBOX 202026
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
326 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE REGION
FROM EAST TO WEST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUN. WEAK LOW PRESSURE
WILL PASS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND BRINGING ANOTHER PERIOD OF PRECIP
MON NIGHT AND TUE. A MUCH STRONGER STORM PASSING WEST OF NEW
ENGLAND WILL BRING HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS AND COASTAL
FLOODING CONCERNS TO THE REGION WED INTO WED EVENING. DRY BUT VERY
WINDY CONDITIONS FOLLOW FOR CHRISTMAS DAY INTO FRI.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE TO A
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS WILL PROVIDE A
FOCUS FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS
BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT.  WHILE SNOW
SHOWERS MAY REACH INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT...A COASTAL FRONT
WILL DEVELOP...AIDING IN FOCUSING SHOWERS ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
MASSACHUSETTS.

SNOW SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT AS THE LOW LEVELS
MOISTEN UP A BIT MORE. LOOKS LIKE IT WILL LIKELY BE WARM ENOUGH
ACROSS THE CAPE AND SOUTHEASTERN PLYMOUTH COUNTY FOR SHOWERS TO BE
RAIN RATHER THAN SNOW.

OVERALL...EXPECTING 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW AT MOST ACROSS EASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND.  THERE ARE SEVERAL POTENTIAL PLACES
WHERE LOCALIZED SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS /POSSIBLY UP TO 2-4 INCHES/
ARE POSSIBLE.  LOOKING AT THE HIGH RES MODELS...EITHER ACROSS ESSEX
COUNTY AND CAPE ANN...EASTERN NORFOLK COUNTY INTO NORTHERN PLYMOUTH
COUNTY...OR BOTH. THEN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WORCESTER COUNTY AND
PROVIDENCE COUNTY MAY SEE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS GIVEN THE UPSLOPE
COMPONENT OF THE WINDS.

SOME OF THE HIGH RES MODELS HAVE A DECENT CLIP OF QPF INTO ESSEX
COUNTY...WHILE OTHERS HAVE NOTHING IN THE SAME AREA.  FOR NORFOLK
AND PLYMOUTH COUNTY...WE MAY SEE A BIT OF OCEAN ENHANCEMENT THAT
RAISES SNOW AMOUNTS IN THOSE AREAS.  DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY AND THE
LOCALIZED NATURE OF THE POTENTIAL HIGHER AMOUNTS...AM OPTING NOT TO
ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. INSTEAD...REISSUED THE SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT FOR SNOW. ANYONE OUT AND ABOUT THIS EVENING IN
EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS WILL WANT TO USE CAUTION AS THERE MAY BE
SLIPPERY PATCHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING HOURS...THEN TAPER
OFF AS INVERTED TROUGH PULLS AWAY FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN.  MOST LIKELY AREAS FOR CONTINUING
SHOWERS WILL BE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EAST COAST OF MASSACHUSETTS.

AS THE DAY GOES ON...EXPECT A SLOW DRYING TREND AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION.  CLOUDS WILL STICK AROUND WITH TEMPS
GENERALLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* INVERTED TROUGH WILL BRING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO THE MASS EAST
  COASTLINE MONDAY INTO TUES MORNING.
* WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MON NIGHT/TUESDAY COULD BRING WINTRY
  MIX TO INTERIOR
* ANOMALOUS SYSTEM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING HEAVY
  RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS AROUND CHRISTMAS
  EVE

OVERVIEW...

OVERALL 00Z GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT SYNOPTICALLY WITH ISSUES ON
TIMING AND SMALLER SCALE FEATURES. IT REMAINS EVIDENT THAT AN
AMPLIFIED MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND PCPN FOCUSING LEAD SURFACE
LOW/FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL STEADILY PROGRESS TO THE EAST-CENTRAL U.S.
TUE AS EMBEDDED IMPULSES DIG TO THE LEE OF AN AMPLIFIED ERN
PACIFIC/WEST COAST RIDGE ALOFT. THE SUPPORTING AND INCREASINGLY
NEGATIVE-TILT TROUGH ALOFT WORKS OVER THE ERN US AND OUT THROUGH THE
NERN STATES INTO DAYS 4/5 WED/THU.  MODELS/ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON THIS AMPLIFIED PATTERN AND THE MOST RECENT
GEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOW GOOD CORRELATION TO NEXT THURSDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL BEGIN TO
EXIT BY MONDAY. AT THE SURFACE APPEARS ANOTHER INVERTED
TROUGH/ONSHORE FLOW WILL YIELD TO PRECIP ALONG THE MASS COASTLINE ON
MONDAY. ASIDE FROM THIS QUICK MESOSCALE EVENT THE MAIN FOCUS IS ON
THE LONGWAVE DIGGING TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WHICH WILL PUSH A
FEW SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE FLOW. FIRST ONE DEVELOPS A WEAK WAVE
MOVING TOWARDS THE REGION LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE LOCATION/STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM BUT
APPEARS THAT THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF A SNOW/WINTRY MIX IN THE
INTERIOR. AS THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS AN ANOMALOUS LOW OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WILL DEVELOP A SECONDARY LOW JUST WEST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
PER ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. STILL A SOME SPREAD BUT IF THIS DOUBLE LOW
DOES DEVELOP THEN THE RAIN AND WIND ASPECT OF THE SYSTEM
INCREASES...DETAILS BELOW. STILL NEED TO WORK OUT MINOR DETAILS
WITH THIS PARTICULAR SYSTEM BUT WITH 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
AWAY AND GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THIS SYSTEM
WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

DETAILS...

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFFSHORE AS
DIGGING TROUGH BEGINS TO SET-UP OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. APPEARS
ANOTHER MESOSCALE INVERTED TROUGH WILL SET UP ON MONDAY AND LAST
INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE MASS EAST COASTLINE THANKS TO ONSHORE
EASTERLY FLOW. APPEARS THE COLUMN WILL SATURATE PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS AND SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW QPF
MAKING IT ONSHORE DURING THIS TIME FRAME. HOWEVER THE EC IS
SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND KEEP THE BULK OF THE PRECIP JUST OFFSHORE. ADD
A CHANCE OF POPS DUE TO THE NAM/GFS MODEL CONTINUITY.

BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY A SOUTHERN BRANCH STORM SYSTEM
FORMS ALONG THE SE COAST AND TAKES A TRACK OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST. THIS SYSTEM GETS CAUGHT UP WITH THE OVERALL LARGE SCALE
AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER AIR PATTERN. THERE IS DECENT WARM
ADVECTION WITH COLD AIR DAMMING ACROSS THE INTERIOR. BIGGEST
QUESTION WILL BE IS THERE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR PRECIP DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. IF PRECIP OVERRUNS THEN COULD SEE FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE
ACROSS THE INTERIOR LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. DURING THE DAY
ON TUESDAY...GOOD AMOUNT OF WARM AIR WILL PUSH SURFACE TEMPS ABOVE
FREEZING ALLOWING FOR ANY PRECIP TO BE MORE OF THE LIQUID VARIETY
AHEAD OF THE CHRISTMAS EVE STORM. HOWEVER GUIDANCE IS ALWAYS TOO
FAST IN SCOURING TEMPS OUT ESP ACROSS THE CT VALLEY SO WE WILL NEED
TO MONITOR THIS CLOSELY...ESP DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND THE HIGH IN
EASTERN CANADA.

WE COULD ALSO SEE SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS ON TUESDAY. SEE
BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SYSTEM LOW CONFIDENCE
ON DETAILS.

STRONG ANOMALOUS SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE GREAT
LAKES...DEVELOPING A POTENTIAL SECONDARY SURFACE LOW JUST WEST OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. STILL A LOT OF DETAILS TO WORK OUT AS THIS
SYSTEM IS STILL 5 DAYS AWAY...HOWEVER ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW
STRONG AGREEMENT SO HAVE INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT A POTENT STORM
WILL OCCUR. LATEST 00Z GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT MOST PRECIP WILL BE
LIQUID WITH A DEEP SUBTROPICAL CONNECTION BACK ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO...PW ANOMALIES FORECAST TO RISE BETWEEN +3 TO +4. CURRENT
PWATS ARE PROGGED ABOVE 1.6 INCHES SO HAVE CONTINUED THE CATEGORICAL
POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE...IN FACT WE MAY BE
CLOSE AT BREAKING RECORD HIGH TEMPS IF TEMPS WARM TO 60F OR ABOVE ON
CHRISTMAS EVE.  AS THE SYSTEM WRAPS UP INTO CANADA...COLD AIR
ADVECTION SHOULD CIRCULATE AROUND AND BEGIN A TRANSITION FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST IN TURNING P-TYPE TO SNOW. HOWEVER LATEST
GUIDANCE DOES SHOW A QUICK MOVING DRY SLOT SO SNOWFALL WILL STRUGGLE
DUE TO LACK OF MOISTURE.

THIS SYSTEM IS QUITE POTENT SO WE WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL
HAZARDS. CURRENTLY THINK THAT WE COULD POSSIBLE URBAN FLOODING
ISSUES AS MODELS PROGGED WELL OVER 1.5 INCHES OF QPF. LATEST EC EVEN
SHOWS 2.5 INCHES OF QPF IS POSSIBLE. THE GEFS SHOW A MOISTURE FLUX
AT 850 MB BEING 4 TO 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS AWAY...AND WITH THE
TROPICAL CONNECTION AND STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW COULD SEE HIGHER
AMOUNTS DUE TO TOPOGRAPHY ENHANCEMENTS. RAIN FALL RECORDS MAY FALL
IF EVERYTHING FALLS INTO PLACE.

ALSO BELIEVE THAT WE MAY SEE SOME WIND ISSUES WITH THIS SYSTEM.
GUIDANCE RIGHT NOW IS SHOWING A 45 TO 55 KT JET AT 925 MB...HOWEVER
IT WILL BE HARD TO BREAK THE INVERSION WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW.
RIGHT NOW BELIEVE THAT WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED BUT IF THIS
SYSTEM STRENGTHEN EVEN MORE SO A STRONGER JET IS POSSIBLE.

CONTINUED THE MENTIONED OF ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE FORECAST PER PREV
FORECASTER SUGGESTION. BELIEVE IT COULD BE POSSIBLE AS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR...WITH THE ANOMALOUS JET AND
SHOWALTERS CLOSE TO ZERO.

FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

ONCE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO SOUTHERN CANADA...EXPECT A RATHER
FAST UPPER W FLOW IN PLACE. MAY SEE LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWERS BUT TEMPS
WILL FALL BACK CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THROUGH 00Z...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO
OVERSPREAD EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AND EVENTUALLY OVERSPREAD THE INTERIOR
THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS THIS AFTERNOON. MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTH AND
WEST OF CAPE COD CANAL...RAIN SHOWERS SOUTH AND EAST. LOCALIZED
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE JUST INLAND FROM THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND
COAST...WHERE SNOW IS FALLING.

TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MVFR CONDITIONS DOMINATE
IN LOWER CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN SNOW SHOWERS. PRECIPITATION
AFFECTS MAINLY EASTERN NEW ENGLAND BUT STILL SOME SCATTERED
ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
NORTH AND WEST OF CAPE COD CANAL...RAIN SHOWERS SOUTH AND EAST.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. FLURRIES AND SNOW
SHOWERS MAY AFFECT THE TERMINAL BY 21Z.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT MOSTLY
VFR...ISOLATED MVFR ALONG THE MASS EAST COASTLINE IN RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS WILL
BE DETERIORATING AS HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ISO THUNDER AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS MOVE INTO THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS IN CIGS AND VSBYS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS QUEBEC WILL RESULT IN
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS WITH SEAS BETWEEN 2 AND 4 FEET ARE
EXPECTED FOR MOST WATERS...SO NO HEADLINES PLANNED.

THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY THAT A BRIEF SURGE OF NORTHEAST WIND
GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS WITH MARGINAL 5 FOOT SEAS COULD AFFECT OUR
NORTHERN WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUN MORNING...BUT NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO ISSUE ANY HEADLINES AT THIS POINT.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. CONTINUOUS NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP SEAS CHOPPY.
LINGERING NORTHEAST SWELL MAY BUMP SEAS ABOVE 5FT ESP ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN WATERS. SCA MAY BE NEEDED...BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...NE WINDS WILL INCREASE...GUSTING TO 30 KT
TUE THEN SHIFT TO SE GUSTING TO 30-35 KT WED...HIGHEST ON THE OUTER
WATERS. SEAS BUILD UP TO 7-11 FT BY WED. GALES WILL BE NEEDED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL OCCUR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. BREAKING
IT DOWN...ON TUESDAY HIGH TIDE AT BOSTON WILL BE 11.6 FT. THERE WILL
BE ONSHORE FLOW DURING THIS HIGH TIDE ALLOWING FOR MINOR SPLASHOVER.
IF WIND GUSTS INCREASE THEN COULD POSSIBLE SEE MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING.

ON WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL SWITCH TO A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DURING
THE DAY AND INCREASE QUICKLY FROM APPROACHING SYSTEM AND DESCENT
PRESSURE FALLS. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE IN BOSTON IS 11.7 FT
AND WITH ANY STRENGTH ON THE EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL PUSH THE TIDE
OVER. RIGHT NOW BELIEVE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE
EAST COASTLINE. HOWEVER WEDNESDAY EVENING...THE WIND GOES IN A MORE
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AND HIGH TIDE IN PROVIDENCE WILL BE 5.2 FT. 925
MB LLJ STRENGTHENS TO 50-60 KTS WHICH COULD PUSH A DESCENT SURGE UP
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST DURING THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. THINKING THAT
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING COULD OCCUR BUT CANNOT RULE OUT MODERATE
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...ESP IF LLJ STRENGTHENS EVEN MORE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN/RLG
NEAR TERM...RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...DUNTEN/RLG
MARINE...DUNTEN/RLG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KBOX 202026
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
326 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE REGION
FROM EAST TO WEST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUN. WEAK LOW PRESSURE
WILL PASS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND BRINGING ANOTHER PERIOD OF PRECIP
MON NIGHT AND TUE. A MUCH STRONGER STORM PASSING WEST OF NEW
ENGLAND WILL BRING HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS AND COASTAL
FLOODING CONCERNS TO THE REGION WED INTO WED EVENING. DRY BUT VERY
WINDY CONDITIONS FOLLOW FOR CHRISTMAS DAY INTO FRI.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE TO A
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS WILL PROVIDE A
FOCUS FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS
BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT.  WHILE SNOW
SHOWERS MAY REACH INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT...A COASTAL FRONT
WILL DEVELOP...AIDING IN FOCUSING SHOWERS ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
MASSACHUSETTS.

SNOW SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT AS THE LOW LEVELS
MOISTEN UP A BIT MORE. LOOKS LIKE IT WILL LIKELY BE WARM ENOUGH
ACROSS THE CAPE AND SOUTHEASTERN PLYMOUTH COUNTY FOR SHOWERS TO BE
RAIN RATHER THAN SNOW.

OVERALL...EXPECTING 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW AT MOST ACROSS EASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND.  THERE ARE SEVERAL POTENTIAL PLACES
WHERE LOCALIZED SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS /POSSIBLY UP TO 2-4 INCHES/
ARE POSSIBLE.  LOOKING AT THE HIGH RES MODELS...EITHER ACROSS ESSEX
COUNTY AND CAPE ANN...EASTERN NORFOLK COUNTY INTO NORTHERN PLYMOUTH
COUNTY...OR BOTH. THEN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WORCESTER COUNTY AND
PROVIDENCE COUNTY MAY SEE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS GIVEN THE UPSLOPE
COMPONENT OF THE WINDS.

SOME OF THE HIGH RES MODELS HAVE A DECENT CLIP OF QPF INTO ESSEX
COUNTY...WHILE OTHERS HAVE NOTHING IN THE SAME AREA.  FOR NORFOLK
AND PLYMOUTH COUNTY...WE MAY SEE A BIT OF OCEAN ENHANCEMENT THAT
RAISES SNOW AMOUNTS IN THOSE AREAS.  DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY AND THE
LOCALIZED NATURE OF THE POTENTIAL HIGHER AMOUNTS...AM OPTING NOT TO
ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. INSTEAD...REISSUED THE SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT FOR SNOW. ANYONE OUT AND ABOUT THIS EVENING IN
EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS WILL WANT TO USE CAUTION AS THERE MAY BE
SLIPPERY PATCHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING HOURS...THEN TAPER
OFF AS INVERTED TROUGH PULLS AWAY FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN.  MOST LIKELY AREAS FOR CONTINUING
SHOWERS WILL BE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EAST COAST OF MASSACHUSETTS.

AS THE DAY GOES ON...EXPECT A SLOW DRYING TREND AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION.  CLOUDS WILL STICK AROUND WITH TEMPS
GENERALLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* INVERTED TROUGH WILL BRING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO THE MASS EAST
  COASTLINE MONDAY INTO TUES MORNING.
* WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MON NIGHT/TUESDAY COULD BRING WINTRY
  MIX TO INTERIOR
* ANOMALOUS SYSTEM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING HEAVY
  RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS AROUND CHRISTMAS
  EVE

OVERVIEW...

OVERALL 00Z GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT SYNOPTICALLY WITH ISSUES ON
TIMING AND SMALLER SCALE FEATURES. IT REMAINS EVIDENT THAT AN
AMPLIFIED MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND PCPN FOCUSING LEAD SURFACE
LOW/FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL STEADILY PROGRESS TO THE EAST-CENTRAL U.S.
TUE AS EMBEDDED IMPULSES DIG TO THE LEE OF AN AMPLIFIED ERN
PACIFIC/WEST COAST RIDGE ALOFT. THE SUPPORTING AND INCREASINGLY
NEGATIVE-TILT TROUGH ALOFT WORKS OVER THE ERN US AND OUT THROUGH THE
NERN STATES INTO DAYS 4/5 WED/THU.  MODELS/ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON THIS AMPLIFIED PATTERN AND THE MOST RECENT
GEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOW GOOD CORRELATION TO NEXT THURSDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL BEGIN TO
EXIT BY MONDAY. AT THE SURFACE APPEARS ANOTHER INVERTED
TROUGH/ONSHORE FLOW WILL YIELD TO PRECIP ALONG THE MASS COASTLINE ON
MONDAY. ASIDE FROM THIS QUICK MESOSCALE EVENT THE MAIN FOCUS IS ON
THE LONGWAVE DIGGING TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WHICH WILL PUSH A
FEW SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE FLOW. FIRST ONE DEVELOPS A WEAK WAVE
MOVING TOWARDS THE REGION LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE LOCATION/STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM BUT
APPEARS THAT THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF A SNOW/WINTRY MIX IN THE
INTERIOR. AS THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS AN ANOMALOUS LOW OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WILL DEVELOP A SECONDARY LOW JUST WEST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
PER ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. STILL A SOME SPREAD BUT IF THIS DOUBLE LOW
DOES DEVELOP THEN THE RAIN AND WIND ASPECT OF THE SYSTEM
INCREASES...DETAILS BELOW. STILL NEED TO WORK OUT MINOR DETAILS
WITH THIS PARTICULAR SYSTEM BUT WITH 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
AWAY AND GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THIS SYSTEM
WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

DETAILS...

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFFSHORE AS
DIGGING TROUGH BEGINS TO SET-UP OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. APPEARS
ANOTHER MESOSCALE INVERTED TROUGH WILL SET UP ON MONDAY AND LAST
INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE MASS EAST COASTLINE THANKS TO ONSHORE
EASTERLY FLOW. APPEARS THE COLUMN WILL SATURATE PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS AND SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW QPF
MAKING IT ONSHORE DURING THIS TIME FRAME. HOWEVER THE EC IS
SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND KEEP THE BULK OF THE PRECIP JUST OFFSHORE. ADD
A CHANCE OF POPS DUE TO THE NAM/GFS MODEL CONTINUITY.

BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY A SOUTHERN BRANCH STORM SYSTEM
FORMS ALONG THE SE COAST AND TAKES A TRACK OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST. THIS SYSTEM GETS CAUGHT UP WITH THE OVERALL LARGE SCALE
AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER AIR PATTERN. THERE IS DECENT WARM
ADVECTION WITH COLD AIR DAMMING ACROSS THE INTERIOR. BIGGEST
QUESTION WILL BE IS THERE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR PRECIP DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. IF PRECIP OVERRUNS THEN COULD SEE FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE
ACROSS THE INTERIOR LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. DURING THE DAY
ON TUESDAY...GOOD AMOUNT OF WARM AIR WILL PUSH SURFACE TEMPS ABOVE
FREEZING ALLOWING FOR ANY PRECIP TO BE MORE OF THE LIQUID VARIETY
AHEAD OF THE CHRISTMAS EVE STORM. HOWEVER GUIDANCE IS ALWAYS TOO
FAST IN SCOURING TEMPS OUT ESP ACROSS THE CT VALLEY SO WE WILL NEED
TO MONITOR THIS CLOSELY...ESP DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND THE HIGH IN
EASTERN CANADA.

WE COULD ALSO SEE SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS ON TUESDAY. SEE
BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SYSTEM LOW CONFIDENCE
ON DETAILS.

STRONG ANOMALOUS SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE GREAT
LAKES...DEVELOPING A POTENTIAL SECONDARY SURFACE LOW JUST WEST OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. STILL A LOT OF DETAILS TO WORK OUT AS THIS
SYSTEM IS STILL 5 DAYS AWAY...HOWEVER ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW
STRONG AGREEMENT SO HAVE INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT A POTENT STORM
WILL OCCUR. LATEST 00Z GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT MOST PRECIP WILL BE
LIQUID WITH A DEEP SUBTROPICAL CONNECTION BACK ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO...PW ANOMALIES FORECAST TO RISE BETWEEN +3 TO +4. CURRENT
PWATS ARE PROGGED ABOVE 1.6 INCHES SO HAVE CONTINUED THE CATEGORICAL
POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE...IN FACT WE MAY BE
CLOSE AT BREAKING RECORD HIGH TEMPS IF TEMPS WARM TO 60F OR ABOVE ON
CHRISTMAS EVE.  AS THE SYSTEM WRAPS UP INTO CANADA...COLD AIR
ADVECTION SHOULD CIRCULATE AROUND AND BEGIN A TRANSITION FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST IN TURNING P-TYPE TO SNOW. HOWEVER LATEST
GUIDANCE DOES SHOW A QUICK MOVING DRY SLOT SO SNOWFALL WILL STRUGGLE
DUE TO LACK OF MOISTURE.

THIS SYSTEM IS QUITE POTENT SO WE WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL
HAZARDS. CURRENTLY THINK THAT WE COULD POSSIBLE URBAN FLOODING
ISSUES AS MODELS PROGGED WELL OVER 1.5 INCHES OF QPF. LATEST EC EVEN
SHOWS 2.5 INCHES OF QPF IS POSSIBLE. THE GEFS SHOW A MOISTURE FLUX
AT 850 MB BEING 4 TO 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS AWAY...AND WITH THE
TROPICAL CONNECTION AND STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW COULD SEE HIGHER
AMOUNTS DUE TO TOPOGRAPHY ENHANCEMENTS. RAIN FALL RECORDS MAY FALL
IF EVERYTHING FALLS INTO PLACE.

ALSO BELIEVE THAT WE MAY SEE SOME WIND ISSUES WITH THIS SYSTEM.
GUIDANCE RIGHT NOW IS SHOWING A 45 TO 55 KT JET AT 925 MB...HOWEVER
IT WILL BE HARD TO BREAK THE INVERSION WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW.
RIGHT NOW BELIEVE THAT WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED BUT IF THIS
SYSTEM STRENGTHEN EVEN MORE SO A STRONGER JET IS POSSIBLE.

CONTINUED THE MENTIONED OF ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE FORECAST PER PREV
FORECASTER SUGGESTION. BELIEVE IT COULD BE POSSIBLE AS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR...WITH THE ANOMALOUS JET AND
SHOWALTERS CLOSE TO ZERO.

FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

ONCE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO SOUTHERN CANADA...EXPECT A RATHER
FAST UPPER W FLOW IN PLACE. MAY SEE LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWERS BUT TEMPS
WILL FALL BACK CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THROUGH 00Z...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO
OVERSPREAD EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AND EVENTUALLY OVERSPREAD THE INTERIOR
THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS THIS AFTERNOON. MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTH AND
WEST OF CAPE COD CANAL...RAIN SHOWERS SOUTH AND EAST. LOCALIZED
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE JUST INLAND FROM THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND
COAST...WHERE SNOW IS FALLING.

TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MVFR CONDITIONS DOMINATE
IN LOWER CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN SNOW SHOWERS. PRECIPITATION
AFFECTS MAINLY EASTERN NEW ENGLAND BUT STILL SOME SCATTERED
ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
NORTH AND WEST OF CAPE COD CANAL...RAIN SHOWERS SOUTH AND EAST.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. FLURRIES AND SNOW
SHOWERS MAY AFFECT THE TERMINAL BY 21Z.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT MOSTLY
VFR...ISOLATED MVFR ALONG THE MASS EAST COASTLINE IN RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS WILL
BE DETERIORATING AS HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ISO THUNDER AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS MOVE INTO THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS IN CIGS AND VSBYS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS QUEBEC WILL RESULT IN
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS WITH SEAS BETWEEN 2 AND 4 FEET ARE
EXPECTED FOR MOST WATERS...SO NO HEADLINES PLANNED.

THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY THAT A BRIEF SURGE OF NORTHEAST WIND
GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS WITH MARGINAL 5 FOOT SEAS COULD AFFECT OUR
NORTHERN WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUN MORNING...BUT NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO ISSUE ANY HEADLINES AT THIS POINT.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. CONTINUOUS NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP SEAS CHOPPY.
LINGERING NORTHEAST SWELL MAY BUMP SEAS ABOVE 5FT ESP ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN WATERS. SCA MAY BE NEEDED...BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...NE WINDS WILL INCREASE...GUSTING TO 30 KT
TUE THEN SHIFT TO SE GUSTING TO 30-35 KT WED...HIGHEST ON THE OUTER
WATERS. SEAS BUILD UP TO 7-11 FT BY WED. GALES WILL BE NEEDED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL OCCUR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. BREAKING
IT DOWN...ON TUESDAY HIGH TIDE AT BOSTON WILL BE 11.6 FT. THERE WILL
BE ONSHORE FLOW DURING THIS HIGH TIDE ALLOWING FOR MINOR SPLASHOVER.
IF WIND GUSTS INCREASE THEN COULD POSSIBLE SEE MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING.

ON WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL SWITCH TO A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DURING
THE DAY AND INCREASE QUICKLY FROM APPROACHING SYSTEM AND DESCENT
PRESSURE FALLS. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE IN BOSTON IS 11.7 FT
AND WITH ANY STRENGTH ON THE EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL PUSH THE TIDE
OVER. RIGHT NOW BELIEVE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE
EAST COASTLINE. HOWEVER WEDNESDAY EVENING...THE WIND GOES IN A MORE
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AND HIGH TIDE IN PROVIDENCE WILL BE 5.2 FT. 925
MB LLJ STRENGTHENS TO 50-60 KTS WHICH COULD PUSH A DESCENT SURGE UP
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST DURING THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. THINKING THAT
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING COULD OCCUR BUT CANNOT RULE OUT MODERATE
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...ESP IF LLJ STRENGTHENS EVEN MORE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN/RLG
NEAR TERM...RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...DUNTEN/RLG
MARINE...DUNTEN/RLG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KBOX 202026
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
326 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE REGION
FROM EAST TO WEST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUN. WEAK LOW PRESSURE
WILL PASS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND BRINGING ANOTHER PERIOD OF PRECIP
MON NIGHT AND TUE. A MUCH STRONGER STORM PASSING WEST OF NEW
ENGLAND WILL BRING HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS AND COASTAL
FLOODING CONCERNS TO THE REGION WED INTO WED EVENING. DRY BUT VERY
WINDY CONDITIONS FOLLOW FOR CHRISTMAS DAY INTO FRI.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE TO A
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS WILL PROVIDE A
FOCUS FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS
BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT.  WHILE SNOW
SHOWERS MAY REACH INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT...A COASTAL FRONT
WILL DEVELOP...AIDING IN FOCUSING SHOWERS ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
MASSACHUSETTS.

SNOW SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT AS THE LOW LEVELS
MOISTEN UP A BIT MORE. LOOKS LIKE IT WILL LIKELY BE WARM ENOUGH
ACROSS THE CAPE AND SOUTHEASTERN PLYMOUTH COUNTY FOR SHOWERS TO BE
RAIN RATHER THAN SNOW.

OVERALL...EXPECTING 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW AT MOST ACROSS EASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND.  THERE ARE SEVERAL POTENTIAL PLACES
WHERE LOCALIZED SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS /POSSIBLY UP TO 2-4 INCHES/
ARE POSSIBLE.  LOOKING AT THE HIGH RES MODELS...EITHER ACROSS ESSEX
COUNTY AND CAPE ANN...EASTERN NORFOLK COUNTY INTO NORTHERN PLYMOUTH
COUNTY...OR BOTH. THEN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WORCESTER COUNTY AND
PROVIDENCE COUNTY MAY SEE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS GIVEN THE UPSLOPE
COMPONENT OF THE WINDS.

SOME OF THE HIGH RES MODELS HAVE A DECENT CLIP OF QPF INTO ESSEX
COUNTY...WHILE OTHERS HAVE NOTHING IN THE SAME AREA.  FOR NORFOLK
AND PLYMOUTH COUNTY...WE MAY SEE A BIT OF OCEAN ENHANCEMENT THAT
RAISES SNOW AMOUNTS IN THOSE AREAS.  DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY AND THE
LOCALIZED NATURE OF THE POTENTIAL HIGHER AMOUNTS...AM OPTING NOT TO
ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. INSTEAD...REISSUED THE SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT FOR SNOW. ANYONE OUT AND ABOUT THIS EVENING IN
EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS WILL WANT TO USE CAUTION AS THERE MAY BE
SLIPPERY PATCHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING HOURS...THEN TAPER
OFF AS INVERTED TROUGH PULLS AWAY FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN.  MOST LIKELY AREAS FOR CONTINUING
SHOWERS WILL BE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EAST COAST OF MASSACHUSETTS.

AS THE DAY GOES ON...EXPECT A SLOW DRYING TREND AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION.  CLOUDS WILL STICK AROUND WITH TEMPS
GENERALLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* INVERTED TROUGH WILL BRING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO THE MASS EAST
  COASTLINE MONDAY INTO TUES MORNING.
* WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MON NIGHT/TUESDAY COULD BRING WINTRY
  MIX TO INTERIOR
* ANOMALOUS SYSTEM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING HEAVY
  RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS AROUND CHRISTMAS
  EVE

OVERVIEW...

OVERALL 00Z GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT SYNOPTICALLY WITH ISSUES ON
TIMING AND SMALLER SCALE FEATURES. IT REMAINS EVIDENT THAT AN
AMPLIFIED MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND PCPN FOCUSING LEAD SURFACE
LOW/FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL STEADILY PROGRESS TO THE EAST-CENTRAL U.S.
TUE AS EMBEDDED IMPULSES DIG TO THE LEE OF AN AMPLIFIED ERN
PACIFIC/WEST COAST RIDGE ALOFT. THE SUPPORTING AND INCREASINGLY
NEGATIVE-TILT TROUGH ALOFT WORKS OVER THE ERN US AND OUT THROUGH THE
NERN STATES INTO DAYS 4/5 WED/THU.  MODELS/ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON THIS AMPLIFIED PATTERN AND THE MOST RECENT
GEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOW GOOD CORRELATION TO NEXT THURSDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL BEGIN TO
EXIT BY MONDAY. AT THE SURFACE APPEARS ANOTHER INVERTED
TROUGH/ONSHORE FLOW WILL YIELD TO PRECIP ALONG THE MASS COASTLINE ON
MONDAY. ASIDE FROM THIS QUICK MESOSCALE EVENT THE MAIN FOCUS IS ON
THE LONGWAVE DIGGING TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WHICH WILL PUSH A
FEW SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE FLOW. FIRST ONE DEVELOPS A WEAK WAVE
MOVING TOWARDS THE REGION LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE LOCATION/STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM BUT
APPEARS THAT THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF A SNOW/WINTRY MIX IN THE
INTERIOR. AS THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS AN ANOMALOUS LOW OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WILL DEVELOP A SECONDARY LOW JUST WEST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
PER ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. STILL A SOME SPREAD BUT IF THIS DOUBLE LOW
DOES DEVELOP THEN THE RAIN AND WIND ASPECT OF THE SYSTEM
INCREASES...DETAILS BELOW. STILL NEED TO WORK OUT MINOR DETAILS
WITH THIS PARTICULAR SYSTEM BUT WITH 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
AWAY AND GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THIS SYSTEM
WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

DETAILS...

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFFSHORE AS
DIGGING TROUGH BEGINS TO SET-UP OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. APPEARS
ANOTHER MESOSCALE INVERTED TROUGH WILL SET UP ON MONDAY AND LAST
INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE MASS EAST COASTLINE THANKS TO ONSHORE
EASTERLY FLOW. APPEARS THE COLUMN WILL SATURATE PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS AND SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW QPF
MAKING IT ONSHORE DURING THIS TIME FRAME. HOWEVER THE EC IS
SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND KEEP THE BULK OF THE PRECIP JUST OFFSHORE. ADD
A CHANCE OF POPS DUE TO THE NAM/GFS MODEL CONTINUITY.

BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY A SOUTHERN BRANCH STORM SYSTEM
FORMS ALONG THE SE COAST AND TAKES A TRACK OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST. THIS SYSTEM GETS CAUGHT UP WITH THE OVERALL LARGE SCALE
AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER AIR PATTERN. THERE IS DECENT WARM
ADVECTION WITH COLD AIR DAMMING ACROSS THE INTERIOR. BIGGEST
QUESTION WILL BE IS THERE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR PRECIP DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. IF PRECIP OVERRUNS THEN COULD SEE FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE
ACROSS THE INTERIOR LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. DURING THE DAY
ON TUESDAY...GOOD AMOUNT OF WARM AIR WILL PUSH SURFACE TEMPS ABOVE
FREEZING ALLOWING FOR ANY PRECIP TO BE MORE OF THE LIQUID VARIETY
AHEAD OF THE CHRISTMAS EVE STORM. HOWEVER GUIDANCE IS ALWAYS TOO
FAST IN SCOURING TEMPS OUT ESP ACROSS THE CT VALLEY SO WE WILL NEED
TO MONITOR THIS CLOSELY...ESP DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND THE HIGH IN
EASTERN CANADA.

WE COULD ALSO SEE SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS ON TUESDAY. SEE
BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SYSTEM LOW CONFIDENCE
ON DETAILS.

STRONG ANOMALOUS SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE GREAT
LAKES...DEVELOPING A POTENTIAL SECONDARY SURFACE LOW JUST WEST OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. STILL A LOT OF DETAILS TO WORK OUT AS THIS
SYSTEM IS STILL 5 DAYS AWAY...HOWEVER ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW
STRONG AGREEMENT SO HAVE INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT A POTENT STORM
WILL OCCUR. LATEST 00Z GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT MOST PRECIP WILL BE
LIQUID WITH A DEEP SUBTROPICAL CONNECTION BACK ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO...PW ANOMALIES FORECAST TO RISE BETWEEN +3 TO +4. CURRENT
PWATS ARE PROGGED ABOVE 1.6 INCHES SO HAVE CONTINUED THE CATEGORICAL
POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE...IN FACT WE MAY BE
CLOSE AT BREAKING RECORD HIGH TEMPS IF TEMPS WARM TO 60F OR ABOVE ON
CHRISTMAS EVE.  AS THE SYSTEM WRAPS UP INTO CANADA...COLD AIR
ADVECTION SHOULD CIRCULATE AROUND AND BEGIN A TRANSITION FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST IN TURNING P-TYPE TO SNOW. HOWEVER LATEST
GUIDANCE DOES SHOW A QUICK MOVING DRY SLOT SO SNOWFALL WILL STRUGGLE
DUE TO LACK OF MOISTURE.

THIS SYSTEM IS QUITE POTENT SO WE WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL
HAZARDS. CURRENTLY THINK THAT WE COULD POSSIBLE URBAN FLOODING
ISSUES AS MODELS PROGGED WELL OVER 1.5 INCHES OF QPF. LATEST EC EVEN
SHOWS 2.5 INCHES OF QPF IS POSSIBLE. THE GEFS SHOW A MOISTURE FLUX
AT 850 MB BEING 4 TO 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS AWAY...AND WITH THE
TROPICAL CONNECTION AND STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW COULD SEE HIGHER
AMOUNTS DUE TO TOPOGRAPHY ENHANCEMENTS. RAIN FALL RECORDS MAY FALL
IF EVERYTHING FALLS INTO PLACE.

ALSO BELIEVE THAT WE MAY SEE SOME WIND ISSUES WITH THIS SYSTEM.
GUIDANCE RIGHT NOW IS SHOWING A 45 TO 55 KT JET AT 925 MB...HOWEVER
IT WILL BE HARD TO BREAK THE INVERSION WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW.
RIGHT NOW BELIEVE THAT WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED BUT IF THIS
SYSTEM STRENGTHEN EVEN MORE SO A STRONGER JET IS POSSIBLE.

CONTINUED THE MENTIONED OF ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE FORECAST PER PREV
FORECASTER SUGGESTION. BELIEVE IT COULD BE POSSIBLE AS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR...WITH THE ANOMALOUS JET AND
SHOWALTERS CLOSE TO ZERO.

FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

ONCE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO SOUTHERN CANADA...EXPECT A RATHER
FAST UPPER W FLOW IN PLACE. MAY SEE LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWERS BUT TEMPS
WILL FALL BACK CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THROUGH 00Z...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO
OVERSPREAD EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AND EVENTUALLY OVERSPREAD THE INTERIOR
THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS THIS AFTERNOON. MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTH AND
WEST OF CAPE COD CANAL...RAIN SHOWERS SOUTH AND EAST. LOCALIZED
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE JUST INLAND FROM THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND
COAST...WHERE SNOW IS FALLING.

TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MVFR CONDITIONS DOMINATE
IN LOWER CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN SNOW SHOWERS. PRECIPITATION
AFFECTS MAINLY EASTERN NEW ENGLAND BUT STILL SOME SCATTERED
ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
NORTH AND WEST OF CAPE COD CANAL...RAIN SHOWERS SOUTH AND EAST.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. FLURRIES AND SNOW
SHOWERS MAY AFFECT THE TERMINAL BY 21Z.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT MOSTLY
VFR...ISOLATED MVFR ALONG THE MASS EAST COASTLINE IN RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS WILL
BE DETERIORATING AS HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ISO THUNDER AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS MOVE INTO THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS IN CIGS AND VSBYS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS QUEBEC WILL RESULT IN
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS WITH SEAS BETWEEN 2 AND 4 FEET ARE
EXPECTED FOR MOST WATERS...SO NO HEADLINES PLANNED.

THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY THAT A BRIEF SURGE OF NORTHEAST WIND
GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS WITH MARGINAL 5 FOOT SEAS COULD AFFECT OUR
NORTHERN WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUN MORNING...BUT NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO ISSUE ANY HEADLINES AT THIS POINT.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. CONTINUOUS NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP SEAS CHOPPY.
LINGERING NORTHEAST SWELL MAY BUMP SEAS ABOVE 5FT ESP ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN WATERS. SCA MAY BE NEEDED...BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...NE WINDS WILL INCREASE...GUSTING TO 30 KT
TUE THEN SHIFT TO SE GUSTING TO 30-35 KT WED...HIGHEST ON THE OUTER
WATERS. SEAS BUILD UP TO 7-11 FT BY WED. GALES WILL BE NEEDED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL OCCUR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. BREAKING
IT DOWN...ON TUESDAY HIGH TIDE AT BOSTON WILL BE 11.6 FT. THERE WILL
BE ONSHORE FLOW DURING THIS HIGH TIDE ALLOWING FOR MINOR SPLASHOVER.
IF WIND GUSTS INCREASE THEN COULD POSSIBLE SEE MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING.

ON WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL SWITCH TO A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DURING
THE DAY AND INCREASE QUICKLY FROM APPROACHING SYSTEM AND DESCENT
PRESSURE FALLS. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE IN BOSTON IS 11.7 FT
AND WITH ANY STRENGTH ON THE EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL PUSH THE TIDE
OVER. RIGHT NOW BELIEVE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE
EAST COASTLINE. HOWEVER WEDNESDAY EVENING...THE WIND GOES IN A MORE
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AND HIGH TIDE IN PROVIDENCE WILL BE 5.2 FT. 925
MB LLJ STRENGTHENS TO 50-60 KTS WHICH COULD PUSH A DESCENT SURGE UP
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST DURING THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. THINKING THAT
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING COULD OCCUR BUT CANNOT RULE OUT MODERATE
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...ESP IF LLJ STRENGTHENS EVEN MORE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN/RLG
NEAR TERM...RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...DUNTEN/RLG
MARINE...DUNTEN/RLG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KBOX 202026
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
326 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE REGION
FROM EAST TO WEST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUN. WEAK LOW PRESSURE
WILL PASS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND BRINGING ANOTHER PERIOD OF PRECIP
MON NIGHT AND TUE. A MUCH STRONGER STORM PASSING WEST OF NEW
ENGLAND WILL BRING HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS AND COASTAL
FLOODING CONCERNS TO THE REGION WED INTO WED EVENING. DRY BUT VERY
WINDY CONDITIONS FOLLOW FOR CHRISTMAS DAY INTO FRI.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE TO A
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS WILL PROVIDE A
FOCUS FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS
BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT.  WHILE SNOW
SHOWERS MAY REACH INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT...A COASTAL FRONT
WILL DEVELOP...AIDING IN FOCUSING SHOWERS ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
MASSACHUSETTS.

SNOW SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT AS THE LOW LEVELS
MOISTEN UP A BIT MORE. LOOKS LIKE IT WILL LIKELY BE WARM ENOUGH
ACROSS THE CAPE AND SOUTHEASTERN PLYMOUTH COUNTY FOR SHOWERS TO BE
RAIN RATHER THAN SNOW.

OVERALL...EXPECTING 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW AT MOST ACROSS EASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND.  THERE ARE SEVERAL POTENTIAL PLACES
WHERE LOCALIZED SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS /POSSIBLY UP TO 2-4 INCHES/
ARE POSSIBLE.  LOOKING AT THE HIGH RES MODELS...EITHER ACROSS ESSEX
COUNTY AND CAPE ANN...EASTERN NORFOLK COUNTY INTO NORTHERN PLYMOUTH
COUNTY...OR BOTH. THEN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WORCESTER COUNTY AND
PROVIDENCE COUNTY MAY SEE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS GIVEN THE UPSLOPE
COMPONENT OF THE WINDS.

SOME OF THE HIGH RES MODELS HAVE A DECENT CLIP OF QPF INTO ESSEX
COUNTY...WHILE OTHERS HAVE NOTHING IN THE SAME AREA.  FOR NORFOLK
AND PLYMOUTH COUNTY...WE MAY SEE A BIT OF OCEAN ENHANCEMENT THAT
RAISES SNOW AMOUNTS IN THOSE AREAS.  DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY AND THE
LOCALIZED NATURE OF THE POTENTIAL HIGHER AMOUNTS...AM OPTING NOT TO
ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. INSTEAD...REISSUED THE SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT FOR SNOW. ANYONE OUT AND ABOUT THIS EVENING IN
EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS WILL WANT TO USE CAUTION AS THERE MAY BE
SLIPPERY PATCHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING HOURS...THEN TAPER
OFF AS INVERTED TROUGH PULLS AWAY FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN.  MOST LIKELY AREAS FOR CONTINUING
SHOWERS WILL BE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EAST COAST OF MASSACHUSETTS.

AS THE DAY GOES ON...EXPECT A SLOW DRYING TREND AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION.  CLOUDS WILL STICK AROUND WITH TEMPS
GENERALLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* INVERTED TROUGH WILL BRING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO THE MASS EAST
  COASTLINE MONDAY INTO TUES MORNING.
* WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MON NIGHT/TUESDAY COULD BRING WINTRY
  MIX TO INTERIOR
* ANOMALOUS SYSTEM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING HEAVY
  RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS AROUND CHRISTMAS
  EVE

OVERVIEW...

OVERALL 00Z GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT SYNOPTICALLY WITH ISSUES ON
TIMING AND SMALLER SCALE FEATURES. IT REMAINS EVIDENT THAT AN
AMPLIFIED MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND PCPN FOCUSING LEAD SURFACE
LOW/FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL STEADILY PROGRESS TO THE EAST-CENTRAL U.S.
TUE AS EMBEDDED IMPULSES DIG TO THE LEE OF AN AMPLIFIED ERN
PACIFIC/WEST COAST RIDGE ALOFT. THE SUPPORTING AND INCREASINGLY
NEGATIVE-TILT TROUGH ALOFT WORKS OVER THE ERN US AND OUT THROUGH THE
NERN STATES INTO DAYS 4/5 WED/THU.  MODELS/ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON THIS AMPLIFIED PATTERN AND THE MOST RECENT
GEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOW GOOD CORRELATION TO NEXT THURSDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL BEGIN TO
EXIT BY MONDAY. AT THE SURFACE APPEARS ANOTHER INVERTED
TROUGH/ONSHORE FLOW WILL YIELD TO PRECIP ALONG THE MASS COASTLINE ON
MONDAY. ASIDE FROM THIS QUICK MESOSCALE EVENT THE MAIN FOCUS IS ON
THE LONGWAVE DIGGING TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WHICH WILL PUSH A
FEW SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE FLOW. FIRST ONE DEVELOPS A WEAK WAVE
MOVING TOWARDS THE REGION LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE LOCATION/STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM BUT
APPEARS THAT THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF A SNOW/WINTRY MIX IN THE
INTERIOR. AS THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS AN ANOMALOUS LOW OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WILL DEVELOP A SECONDARY LOW JUST WEST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
PER ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. STILL A SOME SPREAD BUT IF THIS DOUBLE LOW
DOES DEVELOP THEN THE RAIN AND WIND ASPECT OF THE SYSTEM
INCREASES...DETAILS BELOW. STILL NEED TO WORK OUT MINOR DETAILS
WITH THIS PARTICULAR SYSTEM BUT WITH 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
AWAY AND GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THIS SYSTEM
WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

DETAILS...

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFFSHORE AS
DIGGING TROUGH BEGINS TO SET-UP OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. APPEARS
ANOTHER MESOSCALE INVERTED TROUGH WILL SET UP ON MONDAY AND LAST
INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE MASS EAST COASTLINE THANKS TO ONSHORE
EASTERLY FLOW. APPEARS THE COLUMN WILL SATURATE PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS AND SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW QPF
MAKING IT ONSHORE DURING THIS TIME FRAME. HOWEVER THE EC IS
SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND KEEP THE BULK OF THE PRECIP JUST OFFSHORE. ADD
A CHANCE OF POPS DUE TO THE NAM/GFS MODEL CONTINUITY.

BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY A SOUTHERN BRANCH STORM SYSTEM
FORMS ALONG THE SE COAST AND TAKES A TRACK OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST. THIS SYSTEM GETS CAUGHT UP WITH THE OVERALL LARGE SCALE
AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER AIR PATTERN. THERE IS DECENT WARM
ADVECTION WITH COLD AIR DAMMING ACROSS THE INTERIOR. BIGGEST
QUESTION WILL BE IS THERE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR PRECIP DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. IF PRECIP OVERRUNS THEN COULD SEE FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE
ACROSS THE INTERIOR LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. DURING THE DAY
ON TUESDAY...GOOD AMOUNT OF WARM AIR WILL PUSH SURFACE TEMPS ABOVE
FREEZING ALLOWING FOR ANY PRECIP TO BE MORE OF THE LIQUID VARIETY
AHEAD OF THE CHRISTMAS EVE STORM. HOWEVER GUIDANCE IS ALWAYS TOO
FAST IN SCOURING TEMPS OUT ESP ACROSS THE CT VALLEY SO WE WILL NEED
TO MONITOR THIS CLOSELY...ESP DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND THE HIGH IN
EASTERN CANADA.

WE COULD ALSO SEE SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS ON TUESDAY. SEE
BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SYSTEM LOW CONFIDENCE
ON DETAILS.

STRONG ANOMALOUS SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE GREAT
LAKES...DEVELOPING A POTENTIAL SECONDARY SURFACE LOW JUST WEST OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. STILL A LOT OF DETAILS TO WORK OUT AS THIS
SYSTEM IS STILL 5 DAYS AWAY...HOWEVER ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW
STRONG AGREEMENT SO HAVE INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT A POTENT STORM
WILL OCCUR. LATEST 00Z GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT MOST PRECIP WILL BE
LIQUID WITH A DEEP SUBTROPICAL CONNECTION BACK ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO...PW ANOMALIES FORECAST TO RISE BETWEEN +3 TO +4. CURRENT
PWATS ARE PROGGED ABOVE 1.6 INCHES SO HAVE CONTINUED THE CATEGORICAL
POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE...IN FACT WE MAY BE
CLOSE AT BREAKING RECORD HIGH TEMPS IF TEMPS WARM TO 60F OR ABOVE ON
CHRISTMAS EVE.  AS THE SYSTEM WRAPS UP INTO CANADA...COLD AIR
ADVECTION SHOULD CIRCULATE AROUND AND BEGIN A TRANSITION FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST IN TURNING P-TYPE TO SNOW. HOWEVER LATEST
GUIDANCE DOES SHOW A QUICK MOVING DRY SLOT SO SNOWFALL WILL STRUGGLE
DUE TO LACK OF MOISTURE.

THIS SYSTEM IS QUITE POTENT SO WE WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL
HAZARDS. CURRENTLY THINK THAT WE COULD POSSIBLE URBAN FLOODING
ISSUES AS MODELS PROGGED WELL OVER 1.5 INCHES OF QPF. LATEST EC EVEN
SHOWS 2.5 INCHES OF QPF IS POSSIBLE. THE GEFS SHOW A MOISTURE FLUX
AT 850 MB BEING 4 TO 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS AWAY...AND WITH THE
TROPICAL CONNECTION AND STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW COULD SEE HIGHER
AMOUNTS DUE TO TOPOGRAPHY ENHANCEMENTS. RAIN FALL RECORDS MAY FALL
IF EVERYTHING FALLS INTO PLACE.

ALSO BELIEVE THAT WE MAY SEE SOME WIND ISSUES WITH THIS SYSTEM.
GUIDANCE RIGHT NOW IS SHOWING A 45 TO 55 KT JET AT 925 MB...HOWEVER
IT WILL BE HARD TO BREAK THE INVERSION WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW.
RIGHT NOW BELIEVE THAT WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED BUT IF THIS
SYSTEM STRENGTHEN EVEN MORE SO A STRONGER JET IS POSSIBLE.

CONTINUED THE MENTIONED OF ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE FORECAST PER PREV
FORECASTER SUGGESTION. BELIEVE IT COULD BE POSSIBLE AS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR...WITH THE ANOMALOUS JET AND
SHOWALTERS CLOSE TO ZERO.

FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

ONCE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO SOUTHERN CANADA...EXPECT A RATHER
FAST UPPER W FLOW IN PLACE. MAY SEE LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWERS BUT TEMPS
WILL FALL BACK CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THROUGH 00Z...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO
OVERSPREAD EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AND EVENTUALLY OVERSPREAD THE INTERIOR
THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS THIS AFTERNOON. MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTH AND
WEST OF CAPE COD CANAL...RAIN SHOWERS SOUTH AND EAST. LOCALIZED
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE JUST INLAND FROM THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND
COAST...WHERE SNOW IS FALLING.

TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MVFR CONDITIONS DOMINATE
IN LOWER CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN SNOW SHOWERS. PRECIPITATION
AFFECTS MAINLY EASTERN NEW ENGLAND BUT STILL SOME SCATTERED
ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
NORTH AND WEST OF CAPE COD CANAL...RAIN SHOWERS SOUTH AND EAST.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. FLURRIES AND SNOW
SHOWERS MAY AFFECT THE TERMINAL BY 21Z.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT MOSTLY
VFR...ISOLATED MVFR ALONG THE MASS EAST COASTLINE IN RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS WILL
BE DETERIORATING AS HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ISO THUNDER AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS MOVE INTO THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS IN CIGS AND VSBYS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS QUEBEC WILL RESULT IN
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS WITH SEAS BETWEEN 2 AND 4 FEET ARE
EXPECTED FOR MOST WATERS...SO NO HEADLINES PLANNED.

THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY THAT A BRIEF SURGE OF NORTHEAST WIND
GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS WITH MARGINAL 5 FOOT SEAS COULD AFFECT OUR
NORTHERN WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUN MORNING...BUT NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO ISSUE ANY HEADLINES AT THIS POINT.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. CONTINUOUS NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP SEAS CHOPPY.
LINGERING NORTHEAST SWELL MAY BUMP SEAS ABOVE 5FT ESP ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN WATERS. SCA MAY BE NEEDED...BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...NE WINDS WILL INCREASE...GUSTING TO 30 KT
TUE THEN SHIFT TO SE GUSTING TO 30-35 KT WED...HIGHEST ON THE OUTER
WATERS. SEAS BUILD UP TO 7-11 FT BY WED. GALES WILL BE NEEDED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL OCCUR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. BREAKING
IT DOWN...ON TUESDAY HIGH TIDE AT BOSTON WILL BE 11.6 FT. THERE WILL
BE ONSHORE FLOW DURING THIS HIGH TIDE ALLOWING FOR MINOR SPLASHOVER.
IF WIND GUSTS INCREASE THEN COULD POSSIBLE SEE MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING.

ON WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL SWITCH TO A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DURING
THE DAY AND INCREASE QUICKLY FROM APPROACHING SYSTEM AND DESCENT
PRESSURE FALLS. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE IN BOSTON IS 11.7 FT
AND WITH ANY STRENGTH ON THE EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL PUSH THE TIDE
OVER. RIGHT NOW BELIEVE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE
EAST COASTLINE. HOWEVER WEDNESDAY EVENING...THE WIND GOES IN A MORE
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AND HIGH TIDE IN PROVIDENCE WILL BE 5.2 FT. 925
MB LLJ STRENGTHENS TO 50-60 KTS WHICH COULD PUSH A DESCENT SURGE UP
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST DURING THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. THINKING THAT
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING COULD OCCUR BUT CANNOT RULE OUT MODERATE
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...ESP IF LLJ STRENGTHENS EVEN MORE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN/RLG
NEAR TERM...RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...DUNTEN/RLG
MARINE...DUNTEN/RLG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KOKX 201805 CCA
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
104 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WEAKENS AS IT APPROACHES MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM THEN AFFECTS THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH ITS EFFECTS STILL FELT
ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THIS MAY VERY WELL BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE AUTUMN...IRONICALLY
ITS THE LAST DAY BEFORE THE WINTER SOLSTICE. A THICK LOW-CLOUD
DECK AND LIGHT NLY FLOW ARE KEEPING TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S. ONLY EXPECT A RISE OF ANOTHER COUPLE OF DEGREES...WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY 30 TO 35. THUS...BIGGEST CHANGE WAS TO ADJUST
TEMPS DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES. THERE HAVE ALSO BEEN A FEW REPORTS OF
FLURRIES THIS AFT.

OTHERWISE....HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH BUILDS INTO THE ST LAWRENCE
RIVER VALLEY BY THIS EVE.

MODEL QPF OUTPUT ALSO INDICATES VERY LIGHT PCPN CHANCES OVER THE
FORKS REGION/SE CT TOWARDS SUNSET...BUT WILL MAINTAIN A DRY
FORECAST FOR THE DAYTIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WE WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF PCPN FOR SOME AREAS TONIGHT...BUT VERY
LIGHT. DURING THE EVENING...WEAK LIFT...MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN
AREAS...WILL BE SUPPLIED BY A SHORTWAVE IN THE LOW-MID LEVELS. THIS
COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW OVER LONG ISLAND AND SE CT. THEN FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...CHANCES OF FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SPREAD WEST WITH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION AND INCREASING PVA FROM THE WEST.
THINKING IS THAT PCPN TYPE WOULD FAVOR FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW OVER
DRIZZLE IN SPITE OF MOISTURE LACKING IN THE MID LEVELS. LOOKS LIKE
COLDEST TEMPS IN THE SATURATED LAYER BENEATH THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION
WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ICE CRYSTALS. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS
WOULD ALSO TEND TO FAVOR FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW.

MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH
FLURRIES/DRIZZLE POSSIBLE...THEN NVA BEHIND IT AND DEEP-LAYERED
RIDGING LIKELY PREVENTS PCPN IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS NEAR
NORMAL. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST ON MONDAY AND BEGINS TO HEAD NORTH. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST SHIFTS FARTHER EAST. THIS WILL LOW LEVEL
WINDS HERE VEER TO THE EAST AND AID LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION. A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH FROM THE CENTER OF THE LOW WILL SERVE
AS A FOCUS FOR WEAK LIFT AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. LOW CHANCES OF
LIGHT RAIN RESULT...BUT BETTER OVERALL CHANCES OCCUR DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THE LOW CENTER WEAKENS AS IT HEADS NORTH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE LOW STILL STRENGTHENS...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE STILL INCREASES ON AN ENE FLOW...AND THE SURFACE
TROUGH WILL STILL BE IN THE VICINITY. POPS FOR TUESDAY MIGHT BE A
LITTLE TOO HIGH...BUT THEY ARE STILL REASONABLE...AND CURRENTLY DO
NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO LOWER POPS FROM THE CURRENT LOW-END
LIKELY. BETTER OVERALL CHANCES OF RAIN OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON. PCPN
TYPE IS RAIN...EXCEPT A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW LATE MON NIGHT AND TUES
MORNING FOR THE NORTHERN FRINGE ZONES. MIGHT NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING STARTING WITH TUESDAY
MORNING`S HIGH TIDE CYCLE AS A PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS.

A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM THEN AFFECTS US CHRISTMAS EVE AND DAY.
MODELS SHOW A STRONG PRIMARY LOW CENTER MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE MOVING INTO ONTARIO ON THURSDAY. A
WEAKER SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE CENTER OR TRIPLE POINT LOW FORMS IN
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BEFORE PASSING OVER OR JUST NORTH OF US
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE NIGHT. CATEGORICAL POPS FOR WEDS/WEDS EVENING BEFORE THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH...THEN JUST LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...MAINLY EAST OF THE CITY. RAINFALL EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY
ON THE MODERATE SIDE WITH MINOR URBAN FLOODING POSSIBLE. FOR
THURSDAY...A STRONG FETCH OFF OF LAKE ERIE COULD BRING A RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWER TO THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE CWA THURSDAY MORNING.

BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR WEDS THRU THURS. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET PUSHES
THROUGH THE EASTERN ZONES WEDS AFTN/EVE...BUT STRONG GUSTS WILL
PROBABLY HAVE A TOUGH TIME MIXING DOWN THROUGH AN INVERSION.
STRONGER GUSTS MAY BE REALIZED DURING THURSDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
COURTESY OF BETTER MIXING. MARGINAL ADVISORY CRITERIA GUSTS COULD BE
POSSIBLE WEDS AFTN THRU THURS. TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE
ABOVE AVERAGE. HIGHS ON WEDS IN THE 50S...AND WITH A MODERATE WSW
FLOW AND PARTIAL SUNSHINE ON THURSDAY...HIGH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 40S
EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND CLOSER TO
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
AND DEPARTS EARLY IN THE NEW WEEK.

MAINLY MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 2-3 KFT. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF
VFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. INCREASING CHANCES FOR
WIDESPREAD BKN-OVC MVFR CIGS 2-3 KFT TONIGHT. LIGHT SNOW AND/OR
FLURRIES POSSIBLE FOR KGON/KISP AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

POSSIBLE RETURN TO PREDOMINATELY VFR CIGS LATE SUNDAY MORNING FOR
NYC METRO.

NORTHERLY WINDS 5 KFT OR SO THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.SUNDAY AFTERNOON-SUN NIGHT...MAINLY VFR CIGS...ALTHOUGH MVFR CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.
.MON...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN E-SE FLOW. CHC OF RAIN.
.MON NIGHT-TUE...IFR LIKELY AT TIMES IN RAIN...CIGS AND VSBYS. E
WINDS 10-20 KT.
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...HIGH IMPACT EVENT POSSIBLE...IFR LIKELY WITH
HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY SE WINDS 25KT+ SHIFTING TO SW LATE WED.
.WED NIGHT-THU...SUB VFR EARLY IN SHOWERS...THEN VFR WITH GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS 20-25 KT G40 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE WATERS...CAN EXPECT NORTH WINDS 10
KT OR LESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH SEAS GENERALLY 1-2 FT ON
THE OCEAN OR 1 FT OR LESS ON ALL OTHER WATERS.

EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ON MONDAY AS LOW PRES PASSES SOUTH OF THE
WATERS EARLY IN THE NEW WEEK. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDS DEVELOP ON
TUESDAY AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS. ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC AREA AND TRACKS NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THAT LOW RAPIDLY DEEPENS OVER CANADA ON THURSDAY...
ALLOWING THE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN OVER THE WATERS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND THEN GALES ARE
LIKELY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO IMPACTS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AROUND A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE IS POSSIBLE MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AS LOW PRES PASSES SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND.
NO HYDROLOGICAL IMPACTS EXPECTED.

RAIN ON WED/WED NIGHT MAY AVERAGE 1-2 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION.
MINOR URBAN FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS61 KOKX 201805 CCA
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
104 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WEAKENS AS IT APPROACHES MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM THEN AFFECTS THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH ITS EFFECTS STILL FELT
ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THIS MAY VERY WELL BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE AUTUMN...IRONICALLY
ITS THE LAST DAY BEFORE THE WINTER SOLSTICE. A THICK LOW-CLOUD
DECK AND LIGHT NLY FLOW ARE KEEPING TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S. ONLY EXPECT A RISE OF ANOTHER COUPLE OF DEGREES...WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY 30 TO 35. THUS...BIGGEST CHANGE WAS TO ADJUST
TEMPS DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES. THERE HAVE ALSO BEEN A FEW REPORTS OF
FLURRIES THIS AFT.

OTHERWISE....HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH BUILDS INTO THE ST LAWRENCE
RIVER VALLEY BY THIS EVE.

MODEL QPF OUTPUT ALSO INDICATES VERY LIGHT PCPN CHANCES OVER THE
FORKS REGION/SE CT TOWARDS SUNSET...BUT WILL MAINTAIN A DRY
FORECAST FOR THE DAYTIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WE WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF PCPN FOR SOME AREAS TONIGHT...BUT VERY
LIGHT. DURING THE EVENING...WEAK LIFT...MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN
AREAS...WILL BE SUPPLIED BY A SHORTWAVE IN THE LOW-MID LEVELS. THIS
COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW OVER LONG ISLAND AND SE CT. THEN FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...CHANCES OF FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SPREAD WEST WITH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION AND INCREASING PVA FROM THE WEST.
THINKING IS THAT PCPN TYPE WOULD FAVOR FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW OVER
DRIZZLE IN SPITE OF MOISTURE LACKING IN THE MID LEVELS. LOOKS LIKE
COLDEST TEMPS IN THE SATURATED LAYER BENEATH THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION
WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ICE CRYSTALS. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS
WOULD ALSO TEND TO FAVOR FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW.

MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH
FLURRIES/DRIZZLE POSSIBLE...THEN NVA BEHIND IT AND DEEP-LAYERED
RIDGING LIKELY PREVENTS PCPN IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS NEAR
NORMAL. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST ON MONDAY AND BEGINS TO HEAD NORTH. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST SHIFTS FARTHER EAST. THIS WILL LOW LEVEL
WINDS HERE VEER TO THE EAST AND AID LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION. A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH FROM THE CENTER OF THE LOW WILL SERVE
AS A FOCUS FOR WEAK LIFT AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. LOW CHANCES OF
LIGHT RAIN RESULT...BUT BETTER OVERALL CHANCES OCCUR DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THE LOW CENTER WEAKENS AS IT HEADS NORTH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE LOW STILL STRENGTHENS...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE STILL INCREASES ON AN ENE FLOW...AND THE SURFACE
TROUGH WILL STILL BE IN THE VICINITY. POPS FOR TUESDAY MIGHT BE A
LITTLE TOO HIGH...BUT THEY ARE STILL REASONABLE...AND CURRENTLY DO
NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO LOWER POPS FROM THE CURRENT LOW-END
LIKELY. BETTER OVERALL CHANCES OF RAIN OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON. PCPN
TYPE IS RAIN...EXCEPT A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW LATE MON NIGHT AND TUES
MORNING FOR THE NORTHERN FRINGE ZONES. MIGHT NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING STARTING WITH TUESDAY
MORNING`S HIGH TIDE CYCLE AS A PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS.

A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM THEN AFFECTS US CHRISTMAS EVE AND DAY.
MODELS SHOW A STRONG PRIMARY LOW CENTER MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE MOVING INTO ONTARIO ON THURSDAY. A
WEAKER SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE CENTER OR TRIPLE POINT LOW FORMS IN
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BEFORE PASSING OVER OR JUST NORTH OF US
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE NIGHT. CATEGORICAL POPS FOR WEDS/WEDS EVENING BEFORE THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH...THEN JUST LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...MAINLY EAST OF THE CITY. RAINFALL EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY
ON THE MODERATE SIDE WITH MINOR URBAN FLOODING POSSIBLE. FOR
THURSDAY...A STRONG FETCH OFF OF LAKE ERIE COULD BRING A RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWER TO THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE CWA THURSDAY MORNING.

BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR WEDS THRU THURS. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET PUSHES
THROUGH THE EASTERN ZONES WEDS AFTN/EVE...BUT STRONG GUSTS WILL
PROBABLY HAVE A TOUGH TIME MIXING DOWN THROUGH AN INVERSION.
STRONGER GUSTS MAY BE REALIZED DURING THURSDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
COURTESY OF BETTER MIXING. MARGINAL ADVISORY CRITERIA GUSTS COULD BE
POSSIBLE WEDS AFTN THRU THURS. TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE
ABOVE AVERAGE. HIGHS ON WEDS IN THE 50S...AND WITH A MODERATE WSW
FLOW AND PARTIAL SUNSHINE ON THURSDAY...HIGH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 40S
EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND CLOSER TO
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
AND DEPARTS EARLY IN THE NEW WEEK.

MAINLY MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 2-3 KFT. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF
VFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. INCREASING CHANCES FOR
WIDESPREAD BKN-OVC MVFR CIGS 2-3 KFT TONIGHT. LIGHT SNOW AND/OR
FLURRIES POSSIBLE FOR KGON/KISP AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

POSSIBLE RETURN TO PREDOMINATELY VFR CIGS LATE SUNDAY MORNING FOR
NYC METRO.

NORTHERLY WINDS 5 KFT OR SO THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.SUNDAY AFTERNOON-SUN NIGHT...MAINLY VFR CIGS...ALTHOUGH MVFR CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.
.MON...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN E-SE FLOW. CHC OF RAIN.
.MON NIGHT-TUE...IFR LIKELY AT TIMES IN RAIN...CIGS AND VSBYS. E
WINDS 10-20 KT.
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...HIGH IMPACT EVENT POSSIBLE...IFR LIKELY WITH
HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY SE WINDS 25KT+ SHIFTING TO SW LATE WED.
.WED NIGHT-THU...SUB VFR EARLY IN SHOWERS...THEN VFR WITH GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS 20-25 KT G40 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE WATERS...CAN EXPECT NORTH WINDS 10
KT OR LESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH SEAS GENERALLY 1-2 FT ON
THE OCEAN OR 1 FT OR LESS ON ALL OTHER WATERS.

EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ON MONDAY AS LOW PRES PASSES SOUTH OF THE
WATERS EARLY IN THE NEW WEEK. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDS DEVELOP ON
TUESDAY AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS. ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC AREA AND TRACKS NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THAT LOW RAPIDLY DEEPENS OVER CANADA ON THURSDAY...
ALLOWING THE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN OVER THE WATERS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND THEN GALES ARE
LIKELY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO IMPACTS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AROUND A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE IS POSSIBLE MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AS LOW PRES PASSES SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND.
NO HYDROLOGICAL IMPACTS EXPECTED.

RAIN ON WED/WED NIGHT MAY AVERAGE 1-2 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION.
MINOR URBAN FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS61 KOKX 201803
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
103 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WEAKENS AS IT APPROACHES MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM THEN AFFECTS THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH ITS EFFECTS STILL FELT
ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THIS MAY VERY WELL BE THE BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE AUTUMN...BEING
THE LAST DAY BEFORE THE WINTER SOLSTICE. A THICK LOW-CLOUD DECK
AND LIGHT NLY FLOW IS KEEPING TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
ONLY EXPECT A RISE OF ANOTHER COUPLE OF DEGREES...WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY 30 TO 35. THUS...BIGGEST CHANGE WAS TO ADJUST TEMPS DOWN
SEVERAL DEGREES. THERE HAVE ALSO BEEN A FEW REPORTS OF FLURRIES
THIS AFT.

OTHERWISE....HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH BUILDS BUILDS INTO THE ST
LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY BY THIS EVE.

MODEL QPF OUTPUT ALSO INDICATES VERY LIGHT PCPN CHANCES OVER THE
FORKS REGION/SE CT TOWARDS SUNSET...BUT WILL MAINTAIN A DRY
FORECAST FOR THE DAYTIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WE WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF PCPN FOR SOME AREAS TONIGHT...BUT VERY
LIGHT. DURING THE EVENING...WEAK LIFT...MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN
AREAS...WILL BE SUPPLIED BY A SHORTWAVE IN THE LOW-MID LEVELS. THIS
COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW OVER LONG ISLAND AND SE CT. THEN FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...CHANCES OF FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SPREAD WEST WITH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION AND INCREASING PVA FROM THE WEST.
THINKING IS THAT PCPN TYPE WOULD FAVOR FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW OVER
DRIZZLE IN SPITE OF MOISTURE LACKING IN THE MID LEVELS. LOOKS LIKE
COLDEST TEMPS IN THE SATURATED LAYER BENEATH THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION
WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ICE CRYSTALS. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS
WOULD ALSO TEND TO FAVOR FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW.

MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH
FLURRIES/DRIZZLE POSSIBLE...THEN NVA BEHIND IT AND DEEP-LAYERED
RIDGING LIKELY PREVENTS PCPN IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS NEAR
NORMAL. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST ON MONDAY AND BEGINS TO HEAD NORTH. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST SHIFTS FARTHER EAST. THIS WILL LOW LEVEL
WINDS HERE VEER TO THE EAST AND AID LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION. A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH FROM THE CENTER OF THE LOW WILL SERVE
AS A FOCUS FOR WEAK LIFT AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. LOW CHANCES OF
LIGHT RAIN RESULT...BUT BETTER OVERALL CHANCES OCCUR DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THE LOW CENTER WEAKENS AS IT HEADS NORTH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE LOW STILL STRENGTHENS...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE STILL INCREASES ON AN ENE FLOW...AND THE SURFACE
TROUGH WILL STILL BE IN THE VICINITY. POPS FOR TUESDAY MIGHT BE A
LITTLE TOO HIGH...BUT THEY ARE STILL REASONABLE...AND CURRENTLY DO
NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO LOWER POPS FROM THE CURRENT LOW-END
LIKELY. BETTER OVERALL CHANCES OF RAIN OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON. PCPN
TYPE IS RAIN...EXCEPT A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW LATE MON NIGHT AND TUES
MORNING FOR THE NORTHERN FRINGE ZONES. MIGHT NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING STARTING WITH TUESDAY
MORNING`S HIGH TIDE CYCLE AS A PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS.

A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM THEN AFFECTS US CHRISTMAS EVE AND DAY.
MODELS SHOW A STRONG PRIMARY LOW CENTER MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE MOVING INTO ONTARIO ON THURSDAY. A
WEAKER SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE CENTER OR TRIPLE POINT LOW FORMS IN
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BEFORE PASSING OVER OR JUST NORTH OF US
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE NIGHT. CATEGORICAL POPS FOR WEDS/WEDS EVENING BEFORE THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH...THEN JUST LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...MAINLY EAST OF THE CITY. RAINFALL EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY
ON THE MODERATE SIDE WITH MINOR URBAN FLOODING POSSIBLE. FOR
THURSDAY...A STRONG FETCH OFF OF LAKE ERIE COULD BRING A RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWER TO THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE CWA THURSDAY MORNING.

BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR WEDS THRU THURS. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET PUSHES
THROUGH THE EASTERN ZONES WEDS AFTN/EVE...BUT STRONG GUSTS WILL
PROBABLY HAVE A TOUGH TIME MIXING DOWN THROUGH AN INVERSION.
STRONGER GUSTS MAY BE REALIZED DURING THURSDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
COURTESY OF BETTER MIXING. MARGINAL ADVISORY CRITERIA GUSTS COULD BE
POSSIBLE WEDS AFTN THRU THURS. TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE
ABOVE AVERAGE. HIGHS ON WEDS IN THE 50S...AND WITH A MODERATE WSW
FLOW AND PARTIAL SUNSHINE ON THURSDAY...HIGH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 40S
EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND CLOSER TO
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
AND DEPARTS EARLY IN THE NEW WEEK.

MAINLY MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 2-3 KFT. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF
VFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. INCREASING CHANCES FOR
WIDESPREAD BKN-OVC MVFR CIGS 2-3 KFT TONIGHT. LIGHT SNOW AND/OR
FLURRIES POSSIBLE FOR KGON/KISP AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

POSSIBLE RETURN TO PREDOMINATELY VFR CIGS LATE SUNDAY MORNING FOR
NYC METRO.

NORTHERLY WINDS 5 KFT OR SO THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.SUNDAY AFTERNOON-SUN NIGHT...MAINLY VFR CIGS...ALTHOUGH MVFR CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.
.MON...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN E-SE FLOW. CHC OF RAIN.
.MON NIGHT-TUE...IFR LIKELY AT TIMES IN RAIN...CIGS AND VSBYS. E
WINDS 10-20 KT.
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...HIGH IMPACT EVENT POSSIBLE...IFR LIKELY WITH
HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY SE WINDS 25KT+ SHIFTING TO SW LATE WED.
.WED NIGHT-THU...SUB VFR EARLY IN SHOWERS...THEN VFR WITH GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS 20-25 KT G40 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE WATERS...CAN EXPECT NORTH WINDS 10
KT OR LESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH SEAS GENERALLY 1-2 FT ON
THE OCEAN OR 1 FT OR LESS ON ALL OTHER WATERS.

EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ON MONDAY AS LOW PRES PASSES SOUTH OF THE
WATERS EARLY IN THE NEW WEEK. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDS DEVELOP ON
TUESDAY AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS. ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC AREA AND TRACKS NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THAT LOW RAPIDLY DEEPENS OVER CANADA ON THURSDAY...
ALLOWING THE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN OVER THE WATERS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND THEN GALES ARE
LIKELY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO IMPACTS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AROUND A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE IS POSSIBLE MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AS LOW PRES PASSES SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND.
NO HYDROLOGICAL IMPACTS EXPECTED.

RAIN ON WED/WED NIGHT MAY AVERAGE 1-2 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION.
MINOR URBAN FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KBOX 201746
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1246 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE REGION
FROM EAST TO WEST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUN. WEAK LOW PRESSURE
WILL PASS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND BRINGING ANOTHER PERIOD OF PRECIP
MON NIGHT AND TUE. A MUCH STRONGER STORM PASSING WEST OF NEW
ENGLAND WILL BRING HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS AND COASTAL
FLOODING CONCERNS TO THE REGION WED INTO WED EVENING. DRY BUT VERY
WINDY CONDITIONS FOLLOW FOR CHRISTMAS DAY INTO FRI.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1245 PM UPDATE...SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS THIS AFTERNOON. THEY ARE STRUGGLING TO MOVE
WESTWARD OF CAPE ANN AND EASTERN NORFOLK COUNTY DUE TO MUCH DRIER
AIR. EVENTUALLY THE SHOWERS WILL OVERCOME THE DRIER AIR BUT EXPECT
THIS TO TAKE ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS...DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY
THE WINDS TURN TO THE NORTHEAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

INTERESTING MESOSCALE SETUP AS AN INVERTED TROUGH COMBINES WITH SOME
OCEAN ENHANCEMENT.  APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL ALLOW FOR
EASTERLY FLOW JUST OFF THE GROUND.  THIS COMBINED WITH NORTHEAST
SURFACE WINDS WILL ALLOW LOW LEVEL OF THE ATMOSPHERE TO MOISTEN.
SOUNDINGS ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND BECOME SATURATED ALL THE WAY UP
TO THE -9C LAYER JUST ABOVE 850 MB.  THIS IS FAVORABLE FOR SOME
DECENT SNOW GROWTH...ITS JUST LOWER IN THE ATMOSPHERE THAN WE
TYPICALLY SEE WITH MORE SYNOPTIC SNOW EVENTS.  WHILE THIS IS NOT A
TRUE OCEAN EFFECT EVENT...DELTA T VALUES FROM THE MIXED LAYER TO THE
OCEAN ARE AROUND 15C.  THEREFORE...EXPECT SOME OCEAN ENHANCEMENT.

TIMING:

WHILE FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST NEW
ENGLAND THIS MORNING.  THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL  PRECIPITATION SHOULD
OVERSPREAD PLYMOUTH COUNTY AS WELL AS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS THIS
AFTERNOON.  GIVEN EASTERLY FLOW JUST OFF THE GROUND...EXPECT SNOW
SHOWERS TO OVERSPREAD MOST OF EASTERN NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING AS
LOW LEVELS MOISTEN.  IN FACT...SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS AFFECT EVEN OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES.

PTYPE:

MAINLY SNOW FOR ALL BUT PORTIONS OF COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY AND ONTO
THE CAPE/ISLANDS.  A SUBTLE COASTAL FRONT LOOKS TO SETUP ACROSS
SOUTHEAST COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY.  PTYPE WILL BE SNOW TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THIS REGION...BUT ENOUGH MILD AIR SHOULD COME IN OFF
THE OCEAN FOR A CHANGE TO RAIN SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THIS REGION.
NOT EXPECTING THE POSITION OF THIS SUBTLE BOUNDARY TO CHANGE MUCH
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

SNOW ACCUMULATIONS:

WE ARE GENERALLY LOOKING AT A COATING TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION.  THE MAIN FOCUS FOR 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MA...AWAY FROM THE SOUTHEAST PLYMOUTH COUNTY
COAST.  ALSO...THE WORCESTER HILLS INTO NORTHWEST RHODE ISLAND MIGHT
BE ANOTHER AREA AS A RESULT OF THE SUBTLE UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE
WIND.  YOU CAN ACTUALLY SEE THAT IN SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION
MODEL GUIDANCE.

THERE IS ONE AREA TO WATCH IN PARTICULAR...FROM NORTHWEST PLYMOUTH
COUNTY AND INTO NORFOLK COUNTY BASED ON MESOSCALE MODELS AND PATTERN
RECOGNITION.  WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE VERY LOCALIZED 3 TO 4
INCH SNOW AMOUNTS...GIVEN SOME OCEAN ENHANCEMENT AND A LITTLE FOCUS
ON THE COASTAL FRONT.  WILL TRY TO HIGHLIGHT THIS AREA IN OUR
SNOWFALL AND PROBABILISTIC GRAPHICS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE DURING THE MORNING WITH
MOIST EASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS. AGAIN...PTYPE WILL BE SNOW
EXCEPT ACROSS SOUTHEAST PLYMOUTH COUNTY/CAPE AND ISLANDS WHERE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL PROBABLY BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN SHOWERS.
WHILE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER INTO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...EXPECT A DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL LIFT WEAKENS. IT WILL REMAIN CLOUDY THOUGH
WITH TEMPS IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* INVERTED TROUGH WILL BRING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO THE MASS EAST
  COASTLINE MONDAY INTO TUES MORNING.
* WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MON NIGHT/TUESDAY COULD BRING WINTRY
  MIX TO INTERIOR
* ANOMALOUS SYSTEM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING HEAVY
  RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS AROUND CHRISTMAS
  EVE

OVERVIEW...

OVERALL 00Z GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT SYNOPTICALLY WITH ISSUES ON
TIMING AND SMALLER SCALE FEATURES. IT REMAINS EVIDENT THAT AN
AMPLIFIED MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND PCPN FOCUSING LEAD SURFACE
LOW/FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL STEADILY PROGRESS TO THE EAST-CENTRAL U.S.
TUE AS EMBEDDED IMPULSES DIG TO THE LEE OF AN AMPLIFIED ERN
PACIFIC/WEST COAST RIDGE ALOFT. THE SUPPORTING AND INCREASINGLY
NEGATIVE-TILT TROUGH ALOFT WORKS OVER THE ERN US AND OUT THROUGH THE
NERN STATES INTO DAYS 4/5 WED/THU.  MODELS/ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON THIS AMPLIFIED PATTERN AND THE MOST RECENT
GEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOW GOOD CORRELATION TO NEXT THURSDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL BEGIN TO
EXIT BY MONDAY. AT THE SURFACE APPEARS ANOTHER INVERTED
TROUGH/ONSHORE FLOW WILL YIELD TO PRECIP ALONG THE MASS COASTLINE ON
MONDAY. ASIDE FROM THIS QUICK MESOSCALE EVENT THE MAIN FOCUS IS ON
THE LONGWAVE DIGGING TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WHICH WILL PUSH A
FEW SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE FLOW. FIRST ONE DEVELOPS A WEAK WAVE
MOVING TOWARDS THE REGION LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE LOCATION/STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM BUT
APPEARS THAT THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF A SNOW/WINTRY MIX IN THE
INTERIOR. AS THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS AN ANOMALOUS LOW OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WILL DEVELOP A SECONDARY LOW JUST WEST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
PER ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. STILL A SOME SPREAD BUT IF THIS DOUBLE LOW
DOES DEVELOP THEN THE RAIN AND WIND ASPECT OF THE SYSTEM
INCREASES...DETAILS BELOW. STILL NEED TO WORK OUT MINOR DETAILS
WITH THIS PARTICULAR SYSTEM BUT WITH 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
AWAY AND GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THIS SYSTEM
WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

DETAILS...

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFFSHORE AS
DIGGING TROUGH BEGINS TO SET-UP OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. APPEARS
ANOTHER MESO-SCALE INVERTED TROUGH WILL SET UP ON MONDAY AND LAST
INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE MASS EAST COASTLINE THANKS TO ONSHORE
EASTERLY FLOW. APPEARS THE COLUMN WILL SATURATE PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
AND SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW QPF MAKING IT
ONSHORE DURING THIS TIME FRAME. HOWEVER THE EC IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER
AND KEEP THE BULK OF THE PRECIP JUST OFFSHORE. ADD A CHANCE OF POPS
DUE TO THE NAM/GFS MODEL CONTINUITY.

BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY A SOUTHERN BRANCH STORM SYSTEM
FORMS ALONG THE SE COAST AND TAKES A TRACK OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST. THIS SYSTEM GETS CAUGHT UP WITH THE OVERALL LARGE SCALE
AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER AIR PATTERN. THERE IS DECENT WARM
ADVECTION WITH COLD AIR DAMMING ACROSS THE INTERIOR. BIGGEST
QUESTION WILL BE IS THERE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR PRECIP DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. IF PRECIP OVERRUNS THEN COULD SEE FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE
ACROSS THE INTERIOR LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. DURING THE DAY
ON TUESDAY...GOOD AMOUNT OF WARM AIR WILL PUSH SURFACE TEMPS ABOVE
FREEZING ALLOWING FOR ANY PRECIP TO BE MORE OF THE LIQUID VARIETY
AHEAD OF THE CHRISTMAS EVE STORM. HOWEVER GUIDANCE IS ALWAYS TOO
FAST IN SCOURING TEMPS OUT ESP ACROSS THE CT VALLEY SO WE WILL NEED
TO MONITOR THIS CLOSELY...ESP DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND THE HIGH IN
EASTERN CANADA.

WE COULD ALSO SEE SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS ON TUESDAY. SEE
BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SYSTEM LOW CONFIDENCE
ON DETAILS.

STRONG ANOMALOUS SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE GREAT
LAKES...DEVELOPING A POTENTIAL SECONDARY SURFACE LOW JUST WEST OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. STILL A LOT OF DETAILS TO WORK OUT AS THIS
SYSTEM IS STILL 5 DAYS AWAY...HOWEVER ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW
STRONG AGREEMENT SO HAVE INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT A POTENT STORM
WILL OCCUR. LATEST 00Z GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT MOST PRECIP WILL BE
LIQUID WITH A DEEP SUBTROPICAL CONNECTION BACK ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO...PW ANOMALIES FORECAST TO RISE BETWEEN +3 TO +4. CURRENT
PWATS ARE PROGGED ABOVE 1.6 INCHES SO HAVE CONTINUED THE CATEGORICAL
POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE...IN FACT WE MAY BE
CLOSE AT BREAKING RECORD HIGH TEMPS IF TEMPS WARM TO 60F OR ABOVE ON
CHRISTMAS EVE.  AS THE SYSTEM WRAPS UP INTO CANADA...COLD AIR
ADVECTION SHOULD CIRCULATE AROUND AND BEGIN A TRANSITION FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST IN TURNING P-TYPE TO SNOW. HOWEVER LATEST
GUIDANCE DOES SHOW A QUICK MOVING DRY SLOT SO SNOWFALL WILL STRUGGLE
DUE TO LACK OF MOISTURE.

THIS SYSTEM IS QUITE POTENT SO WE WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL
HAZARDS. CURRENTLY THINK THAT WE COULD POSSIBLE URBAN FLOODING
ISSUES AS MODELS PROGGED WELL OVER 1.5 INCHES OF QPF. LATEST EC EVEN
SHOWS 2.5 INCHES OF QPF IS POSSIBLE. THE GEFS SHOW A MOISTURE FLUX
AT 850 MB BEING 4 TO 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS AWAY...AND WITH THE
TROPICAL CONNECTION AND STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW COULD SEE HIGHER
AMOUNTS DUE TO TOPOGRAPHY ENHANCEMENTS. RAIN FALL RECORDS MAY FALL
IF EVERYTHING FALLS INTO PLACE.

ALSO BELIEVE THAT WE MAY SEE SOME WIND ISSUES WITH THIS SYSTEM.
GUIDANCE RIGHT NOW IS SHOWING A 45 TO 55 KT JET AT 925 MB...HOWEVER
IT WILL BE HARD TO BREAK THE INVERSION WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW.
RIGHT NOW BELIEVE THAT WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED BUT IF THIS
SYSTEM STRENGTHEN EVEN MORE SO A STRONGER JET IS POSSIBLE.

CONTINUED THE MENTIONED OF ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE FORECAST PER PREV
FORECASTER SUGGESTION. BELIEVE IT COULD BE POSSIBLE AS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR...WITH THE ANOMALOUS JET AND
SHOWALTERS CLOSE TO ZERO.

FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

ONCE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO SOUTHERN CANADA...EXPECT A RATHER
FAST UPPER W FLOW IN PLACE. MAY SEE LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWERS BUT TEMPS
WILL FALL BACK CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THROUGH 00Z...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO
OVERSPREAD EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AND EVENTUALLY OVERSPREAD THE INTERIOR
THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS THIS AFTERNOON. MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTH AND
WEST OF CAPE COD CANAL...RAIN SHOWERS SOUTH AND EAST. LOCALIZED
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE JUST INLAND FROM THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND
COAST...WHERE SNOW IS FALLING.

TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MVFR CONDITIONS DOMINATE
IN LOWER CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN SNOW SHOWERS. PRECIPITATION
AFFECTS MAINLY EASTERN NEW ENGLAND BUT STILL SOME SCATTERED
ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
NORTH AND WEST OF CAPE COD CANAL...RAIN SHOWERS SOUTH AND EAST.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. FLURRIES AND SNOW
SHOWERS MAY AFFECT THE TERMINAL BY 21Z.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT MOSTLY
VFR...ISOLATED MVFR ALONG THE MASS EAST COASTLINE IN RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS WILL
BE DETERIORATING AS HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ISO THUNDER AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS MOVE INTO THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS IN CIGS AND VSBYS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS QUEBEC WILL RESULT IN PERSISTENT NORTHEAST
WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  WIND GUSTS UP TO 20
KNOTS WITH SEAS BETWEEN 2 AND 4 FEET ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST
WATERS...SO NO HEADLINES PLANNED. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY THAT A
BRIEF SURGE OF NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS WITH MARGINAL 5
FOOT SEAS COULD AFFECT OUR NORTHERN WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUN
MORNING...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ISSUE ANY HEADLINES AT THIS
POINT.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. CONTINUOUS NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP SEAS CHOPPY.
LINGERING NORTHEAST SWELL MAY BUMP SEAS ABOVE 5FT ESP ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN WATERS. SCA MAY BE NEEDED...BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...NE WINDS WILL INCREASE...GUSTING TO 30 KT
TUE THEN SHIFT TO SE GUSTING TO 30-35 KT WED...HIGHEST ON THE OUTER
WATERS. SEAS BUILD UP TO 7-11 FT BY WED. GALES WILL BE NEEDED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL OCCUR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. BREAKING
IT DOWN...ON TUESDAY HIGH TIDE AT BOSTON WILL BE 11.6 FT. THERE WILL
BE ONSHORE FLOW DURING THIS HIGH TIDE ALLOWING FOR MINOR SPLASHOVER.
IF WIND GUSTS INCREASE THEN COULD POSSIBLE SEE MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING.

ON WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL SWITCH TO A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DURING
THE DAY AND INCREASE QUICKLY FROM APPROACHING SYSTEM AND DESCENT
PRESSURE FALLS. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE IN BOSTON IS 11.7 FT
AND WITH ANY STRENGTH ON THE EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL PUSH THE TIDE
OVER. RIGHT NOW BELIEVE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE
EAST COASTLINE. HOWEVER WEDNESDAY EVENING...THE WIND GOES IN A MORE
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AND HIGH TIDE IN PROVIDENCE WILL BE 5.2 FT. 925
MB LLJ STRENGTHENS TO 50-60 KTS WHICH COULD PUSH A DESCENT SURGE UP
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST DURING THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. THINKING THAT
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING COULD OCCUR BUT CANNOT RULE OUT MODERATE
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...ESP IF LLJ STRENGTHENS EVEN MORE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN/RLG
NEAR TERM...FRANK/RLG
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...DUNTEN/RLG
MARINE...FRANK/DUNTEN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KBOX 201746
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1246 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE REGION
FROM EAST TO WEST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUN. WEAK LOW PRESSURE
WILL PASS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND BRINGING ANOTHER PERIOD OF PRECIP
MON NIGHT AND TUE. A MUCH STRONGER STORM PASSING WEST OF NEW
ENGLAND WILL BRING HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS AND COASTAL
FLOODING CONCERNS TO THE REGION WED INTO WED EVENING. DRY BUT VERY
WINDY CONDITIONS FOLLOW FOR CHRISTMAS DAY INTO FRI.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1245 PM UPDATE...SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS THIS AFTERNOON. THEY ARE STRUGGLING TO MOVE
WESTWARD OF CAPE ANN AND EASTERN NORFOLK COUNTY DUE TO MUCH DRIER
AIR. EVENTUALLY THE SHOWERS WILL OVERCOME THE DRIER AIR BUT EXPECT
THIS TO TAKE ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS...DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY
THE WINDS TURN TO THE NORTHEAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

INTERESTING MESOSCALE SETUP AS AN INVERTED TROUGH COMBINES WITH SOME
OCEAN ENHANCEMENT.  APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL ALLOW FOR
EASTERLY FLOW JUST OFF THE GROUND.  THIS COMBINED WITH NORTHEAST
SURFACE WINDS WILL ALLOW LOW LEVEL OF THE ATMOSPHERE TO MOISTEN.
SOUNDINGS ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND BECOME SATURATED ALL THE WAY UP
TO THE -9C LAYER JUST ABOVE 850 MB.  THIS IS FAVORABLE FOR SOME
DECENT SNOW GROWTH...ITS JUST LOWER IN THE ATMOSPHERE THAN WE
TYPICALLY SEE WITH MORE SYNOPTIC SNOW EVENTS.  WHILE THIS IS NOT A
TRUE OCEAN EFFECT EVENT...DELTA T VALUES FROM THE MIXED LAYER TO THE
OCEAN ARE AROUND 15C.  THEREFORE...EXPECT SOME OCEAN ENHANCEMENT.

TIMING:

WHILE FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST NEW
ENGLAND THIS MORNING.  THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL  PRECIPITATION SHOULD
OVERSPREAD PLYMOUTH COUNTY AS WELL AS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS THIS
AFTERNOON.  GIVEN EASTERLY FLOW JUST OFF THE GROUND...EXPECT SNOW
SHOWERS TO OVERSPREAD MOST OF EASTERN NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING AS
LOW LEVELS MOISTEN.  IN FACT...SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS AFFECT EVEN OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES.

PTYPE:

MAINLY SNOW FOR ALL BUT PORTIONS OF COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY AND ONTO
THE CAPE/ISLANDS.  A SUBTLE COASTAL FRONT LOOKS TO SETUP ACROSS
SOUTHEAST COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY.  PTYPE WILL BE SNOW TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THIS REGION...BUT ENOUGH MILD AIR SHOULD COME IN OFF
THE OCEAN FOR A CHANGE TO RAIN SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THIS REGION.
NOT EXPECTING THE POSITION OF THIS SUBTLE BOUNDARY TO CHANGE MUCH
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

SNOW ACCUMULATIONS:

WE ARE GENERALLY LOOKING AT A COATING TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION.  THE MAIN FOCUS FOR 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MA...AWAY FROM THE SOUTHEAST PLYMOUTH COUNTY
COAST.  ALSO...THE WORCESTER HILLS INTO NORTHWEST RHODE ISLAND MIGHT
BE ANOTHER AREA AS A RESULT OF THE SUBTLE UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE
WIND.  YOU CAN ACTUALLY SEE THAT IN SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION
MODEL GUIDANCE.

THERE IS ONE AREA TO WATCH IN PARTICULAR...FROM NORTHWEST PLYMOUTH
COUNTY AND INTO NORFOLK COUNTY BASED ON MESOSCALE MODELS AND PATTERN
RECOGNITION.  WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE VERY LOCALIZED 3 TO 4
INCH SNOW AMOUNTS...GIVEN SOME OCEAN ENHANCEMENT AND A LITTLE FOCUS
ON THE COASTAL FRONT.  WILL TRY TO HIGHLIGHT THIS AREA IN OUR
SNOWFALL AND PROBABILISTIC GRAPHICS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE DURING THE MORNING WITH
MOIST EASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS. AGAIN...PTYPE WILL BE SNOW
EXCEPT ACROSS SOUTHEAST PLYMOUTH COUNTY/CAPE AND ISLANDS WHERE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL PROBABLY BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN SHOWERS.
WHILE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER INTO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...EXPECT A DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL LIFT WEAKENS. IT WILL REMAIN CLOUDY THOUGH
WITH TEMPS IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* INVERTED TROUGH WILL BRING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO THE MASS EAST
  COASTLINE MONDAY INTO TUES MORNING.
* WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MON NIGHT/TUESDAY COULD BRING WINTRY
  MIX TO INTERIOR
* ANOMALOUS SYSTEM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING HEAVY
  RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS AROUND CHRISTMAS
  EVE

OVERVIEW...

OVERALL 00Z GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT SYNOPTICALLY WITH ISSUES ON
TIMING AND SMALLER SCALE FEATURES. IT REMAINS EVIDENT THAT AN
AMPLIFIED MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND PCPN FOCUSING LEAD SURFACE
LOW/FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL STEADILY PROGRESS TO THE EAST-CENTRAL U.S.
TUE AS EMBEDDED IMPULSES DIG TO THE LEE OF AN AMPLIFIED ERN
PACIFIC/WEST COAST RIDGE ALOFT. THE SUPPORTING AND INCREASINGLY
NEGATIVE-TILT TROUGH ALOFT WORKS OVER THE ERN US AND OUT THROUGH THE
NERN STATES INTO DAYS 4/5 WED/THU.  MODELS/ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON THIS AMPLIFIED PATTERN AND THE MOST RECENT
GEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOW GOOD CORRELATION TO NEXT THURSDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL BEGIN TO
EXIT BY MONDAY. AT THE SURFACE APPEARS ANOTHER INVERTED
TROUGH/ONSHORE FLOW WILL YIELD TO PRECIP ALONG THE MASS COASTLINE ON
MONDAY. ASIDE FROM THIS QUICK MESOSCALE EVENT THE MAIN FOCUS IS ON
THE LONGWAVE DIGGING TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WHICH WILL PUSH A
FEW SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE FLOW. FIRST ONE DEVELOPS A WEAK WAVE
MOVING TOWARDS THE REGION LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE LOCATION/STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM BUT
APPEARS THAT THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF A SNOW/WINTRY MIX IN THE
INTERIOR. AS THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS AN ANOMALOUS LOW OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WILL DEVELOP A SECONDARY LOW JUST WEST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
PER ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. STILL A SOME SPREAD BUT IF THIS DOUBLE LOW
DOES DEVELOP THEN THE RAIN AND WIND ASPECT OF THE SYSTEM
INCREASES...DETAILS BELOW. STILL NEED TO WORK OUT MINOR DETAILS
WITH THIS PARTICULAR SYSTEM BUT WITH 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
AWAY AND GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THIS SYSTEM
WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

DETAILS...

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFFSHORE AS
DIGGING TROUGH BEGINS TO SET-UP OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. APPEARS
ANOTHER MESO-SCALE INVERTED TROUGH WILL SET UP ON MONDAY AND LAST
INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE MASS EAST COASTLINE THANKS TO ONSHORE
EASTERLY FLOW. APPEARS THE COLUMN WILL SATURATE PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
AND SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW QPF MAKING IT
ONSHORE DURING THIS TIME FRAME. HOWEVER THE EC IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER
AND KEEP THE BULK OF THE PRECIP JUST OFFSHORE. ADD A CHANCE OF POPS
DUE TO THE NAM/GFS MODEL CONTINUITY.

BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY A SOUTHERN BRANCH STORM SYSTEM
FORMS ALONG THE SE COAST AND TAKES A TRACK OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST. THIS SYSTEM GETS CAUGHT UP WITH THE OVERALL LARGE SCALE
AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER AIR PATTERN. THERE IS DECENT WARM
ADVECTION WITH COLD AIR DAMMING ACROSS THE INTERIOR. BIGGEST
QUESTION WILL BE IS THERE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR PRECIP DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. IF PRECIP OVERRUNS THEN COULD SEE FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE
ACROSS THE INTERIOR LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. DURING THE DAY
ON TUESDAY...GOOD AMOUNT OF WARM AIR WILL PUSH SURFACE TEMPS ABOVE
FREEZING ALLOWING FOR ANY PRECIP TO BE MORE OF THE LIQUID VARIETY
AHEAD OF THE CHRISTMAS EVE STORM. HOWEVER GUIDANCE IS ALWAYS TOO
FAST IN SCOURING TEMPS OUT ESP ACROSS THE CT VALLEY SO WE WILL NEED
TO MONITOR THIS CLOSELY...ESP DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND THE HIGH IN
EASTERN CANADA.

WE COULD ALSO SEE SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS ON TUESDAY. SEE
BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SYSTEM LOW CONFIDENCE
ON DETAILS.

STRONG ANOMALOUS SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE GREAT
LAKES...DEVELOPING A POTENTIAL SECONDARY SURFACE LOW JUST WEST OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. STILL A LOT OF DETAILS TO WORK OUT AS THIS
SYSTEM IS STILL 5 DAYS AWAY...HOWEVER ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW
STRONG AGREEMENT SO HAVE INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT A POTENT STORM
WILL OCCUR. LATEST 00Z GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT MOST PRECIP WILL BE
LIQUID WITH A DEEP SUBTROPICAL CONNECTION BACK ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO...PW ANOMALIES FORECAST TO RISE BETWEEN +3 TO +4. CURRENT
PWATS ARE PROGGED ABOVE 1.6 INCHES SO HAVE CONTINUED THE CATEGORICAL
POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE...IN FACT WE MAY BE
CLOSE AT BREAKING RECORD HIGH TEMPS IF TEMPS WARM TO 60F OR ABOVE ON
CHRISTMAS EVE.  AS THE SYSTEM WRAPS UP INTO CANADA...COLD AIR
ADVECTION SHOULD CIRCULATE AROUND AND BEGIN A TRANSITION FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST IN TURNING P-TYPE TO SNOW. HOWEVER LATEST
GUIDANCE DOES SHOW A QUICK MOVING DRY SLOT SO SNOWFALL WILL STRUGGLE
DUE TO LACK OF MOISTURE.

THIS SYSTEM IS QUITE POTENT SO WE WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL
HAZARDS. CURRENTLY THINK THAT WE COULD POSSIBLE URBAN FLOODING
ISSUES AS MODELS PROGGED WELL OVER 1.5 INCHES OF QPF. LATEST EC EVEN
SHOWS 2.5 INCHES OF QPF IS POSSIBLE. THE GEFS SHOW A MOISTURE FLUX
AT 850 MB BEING 4 TO 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS AWAY...AND WITH THE
TROPICAL CONNECTION AND STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW COULD SEE HIGHER
AMOUNTS DUE TO TOPOGRAPHY ENHANCEMENTS. RAIN FALL RECORDS MAY FALL
IF EVERYTHING FALLS INTO PLACE.

ALSO BELIEVE THAT WE MAY SEE SOME WIND ISSUES WITH THIS SYSTEM.
GUIDANCE RIGHT NOW IS SHOWING A 45 TO 55 KT JET AT 925 MB...HOWEVER
IT WILL BE HARD TO BREAK THE INVERSION WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW.
RIGHT NOW BELIEVE THAT WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED BUT IF THIS
SYSTEM STRENGTHEN EVEN MORE SO A STRONGER JET IS POSSIBLE.

CONTINUED THE MENTIONED OF ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE FORECAST PER PREV
FORECASTER SUGGESTION. BELIEVE IT COULD BE POSSIBLE AS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR...WITH THE ANOMALOUS JET AND
SHOWALTERS CLOSE TO ZERO.

FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

ONCE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO SOUTHERN CANADA...EXPECT A RATHER
FAST UPPER W FLOW IN PLACE. MAY SEE LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWERS BUT TEMPS
WILL FALL BACK CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THROUGH 00Z...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO
OVERSPREAD EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AND EVENTUALLY OVERSPREAD THE INTERIOR
THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS THIS AFTERNOON. MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTH AND
WEST OF CAPE COD CANAL...RAIN SHOWERS SOUTH AND EAST. LOCALIZED
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE JUST INLAND FROM THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND
COAST...WHERE SNOW IS FALLING.

TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MVFR CONDITIONS DOMINATE
IN LOWER CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN SNOW SHOWERS. PRECIPITATION
AFFECTS MAINLY EASTERN NEW ENGLAND BUT STILL SOME SCATTERED
ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
NORTH AND WEST OF CAPE COD CANAL...RAIN SHOWERS SOUTH AND EAST.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. FLURRIES AND SNOW
SHOWERS MAY AFFECT THE TERMINAL BY 21Z.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT MOSTLY
VFR...ISOLATED MVFR ALONG THE MASS EAST COASTLINE IN RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS WILL
BE DETERIORATING AS HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ISO THUNDER AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS MOVE INTO THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS IN CIGS AND VSBYS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS QUEBEC WILL RESULT IN PERSISTENT NORTHEAST
WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  WIND GUSTS UP TO 20
KNOTS WITH SEAS BETWEEN 2 AND 4 FEET ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST
WATERS...SO NO HEADLINES PLANNED. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY THAT A
BRIEF SURGE OF NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS WITH MARGINAL 5
FOOT SEAS COULD AFFECT OUR NORTHERN WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUN
MORNING...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ISSUE ANY HEADLINES AT THIS
POINT.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. CONTINUOUS NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP SEAS CHOPPY.
LINGERING NORTHEAST SWELL MAY BUMP SEAS ABOVE 5FT ESP ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN WATERS. SCA MAY BE NEEDED...BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...NE WINDS WILL INCREASE...GUSTING TO 30 KT
TUE THEN SHIFT TO SE GUSTING TO 30-35 KT WED...HIGHEST ON THE OUTER
WATERS. SEAS BUILD UP TO 7-11 FT BY WED. GALES WILL BE NEEDED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL OCCUR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. BREAKING
IT DOWN...ON TUESDAY HIGH TIDE AT BOSTON WILL BE 11.6 FT. THERE WILL
BE ONSHORE FLOW DURING THIS HIGH TIDE ALLOWING FOR MINOR SPLASHOVER.
IF WIND GUSTS INCREASE THEN COULD POSSIBLE SEE MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING.

ON WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL SWITCH TO A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DURING
THE DAY AND INCREASE QUICKLY FROM APPROACHING SYSTEM AND DESCENT
PRESSURE FALLS. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE IN BOSTON IS 11.7 FT
AND WITH ANY STRENGTH ON THE EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL PUSH THE TIDE
OVER. RIGHT NOW BELIEVE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE
EAST COASTLINE. HOWEVER WEDNESDAY EVENING...THE WIND GOES IN A MORE
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AND HIGH TIDE IN PROVIDENCE WILL BE 5.2 FT. 925
MB LLJ STRENGTHENS TO 50-60 KTS WHICH COULD PUSH A DESCENT SURGE UP
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST DURING THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. THINKING THAT
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING COULD OCCUR BUT CANNOT RULE OUT MODERATE
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...ESP IF LLJ STRENGTHENS EVEN MORE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN/RLG
NEAR TERM...FRANK/RLG
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...DUNTEN/RLG
MARINE...FRANK/DUNTEN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KBOX 201746
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1246 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE REGION
FROM EAST TO WEST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUN. WEAK LOW PRESSURE
WILL PASS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND BRINGING ANOTHER PERIOD OF PRECIP
MON NIGHT AND TUE. A MUCH STRONGER STORM PASSING WEST OF NEW
ENGLAND WILL BRING HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS AND COASTAL
FLOODING CONCERNS TO THE REGION WED INTO WED EVENING. DRY BUT VERY
WINDY CONDITIONS FOLLOW FOR CHRISTMAS DAY INTO FRI.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1245 PM UPDATE...SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS THIS AFTERNOON. THEY ARE STRUGGLING TO MOVE
WESTWARD OF CAPE ANN AND EASTERN NORFOLK COUNTY DUE TO MUCH DRIER
AIR. EVENTUALLY THE SHOWERS WILL OVERCOME THE DRIER AIR BUT EXPECT
THIS TO TAKE ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS...DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY
THE WINDS TURN TO THE NORTHEAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

INTERESTING MESOSCALE SETUP AS AN INVERTED TROUGH COMBINES WITH SOME
OCEAN ENHANCEMENT.  APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL ALLOW FOR
EASTERLY FLOW JUST OFF THE GROUND.  THIS COMBINED WITH NORTHEAST
SURFACE WINDS WILL ALLOW LOW LEVEL OF THE ATMOSPHERE TO MOISTEN.
SOUNDINGS ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND BECOME SATURATED ALL THE WAY UP
TO THE -9C LAYER JUST ABOVE 850 MB.  THIS IS FAVORABLE FOR SOME
DECENT SNOW GROWTH...ITS JUST LOWER IN THE ATMOSPHERE THAN WE
TYPICALLY SEE WITH MORE SYNOPTIC SNOW EVENTS.  WHILE THIS IS NOT A
TRUE OCEAN EFFECT EVENT...DELTA T VALUES FROM THE MIXED LAYER TO THE
OCEAN ARE AROUND 15C.  THEREFORE...EXPECT SOME OCEAN ENHANCEMENT.

TIMING:

WHILE FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST NEW
ENGLAND THIS MORNING.  THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL  PRECIPITATION SHOULD
OVERSPREAD PLYMOUTH COUNTY AS WELL AS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS THIS
AFTERNOON.  GIVEN EASTERLY FLOW JUST OFF THE GROUND...EXPECT SNOW
SHOWERS TO OVERSPREAD MOST OF EASTERN NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING AS
LOW LEVELS MOISTEN.  IN FACT...SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS AFFECT EVEN OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES.

PTYPE:

MAINLY SNOW FOR ALL BUT PORTIONS OF COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY AND ONTO
THE CAPE/ISLANDS.  A SUBTLE COASTAL FRONT LOOKS TO SETUP ACROSS
SOUTHEAST COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY.  PTYPE WILL BE SNOW TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THIS REGION...BUT ENOUGH MILD AIR SHOULD COME IN OFF
THE OCEAN FOR A CHANGE TO RAIN SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THIS REGION.
NOT EXPECTING THE POSITION OF THIS SUBTLE BOUNDARY TO CHANGE MUCH
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

SNOW ACCUMULATIONS:

WE ARE GENERALLY LOOKING AT A COATING TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION.  THE MAIN FOCUS FOR 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MA...AWAY FROM THE SOUTHEAST PLYMOUTH COUNTY
COAST.  ALSO...THE WORCESTER HILLS INTO NORTHWEST RHODE ISLAND MIGHT
BE ANOTHER AREA AS A RESULT OF THE SUBTLE UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE
WIND.  YOU CAN ACTUALLY SEE THAT IN SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION
MODEL GUIDANCE.

THERE IS ONE AREA TO WATCH IN PARTICULAR...FROM NORTHWEST PLYMOUTH
COUNTY AND INTO NORFOLK COUNTY BASED ON MESOSCALE MODELS AND PATTERN
RECOGNITION.  WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE VERY LOCALIZED 3 TO 4
INCH SNOW AMOUNTS...GIVEN SOME OCEAN ENHANCEMENT AND A LITTLE FOCUS
ON THE COASTAL FRONT.  WILL TRY TO HIGHLIGHT THIS AREA IN OUR
SNOWFALL AND PROBABILISTIC GRAPHICS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE DURING THE MORNING WITH
MOIST EASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS. AGAIN...PTYPE WILL BE SNOW
EXCEPT ACROSS SOUTHEAST PLYMOUTH COUNTY/CAPE AND ISLANDS WHERE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL PROBABLY BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN SHOWERS.
WHILE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER INTO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...EXPECT A DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL LIFT WEAKENS. IT WILL REMAIN CLOUDY THOUGH
WITH TEMPS IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* INVERTED TROUGH WILL BRING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO THE MASS EAST
  COASTLINE MONDAY INTO TUES MORNING.
* WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MON NIGHT/TUESDAY COULD BRING WINTRY
  MIX TO INTERIOR
* ANOMALOUS SYSTEM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING HEAVY
  RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS AROUND CHRISTMAS
  EVE

OVERVIEW...

OVERALL 00Z GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT SYNOPTICALLY WITH ISSUES ON
TIMING AND SMALLER SCALE FEATURES. IT REMAINS EVIDENT THAT AN
AMPLIFIED MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND PCPN FOCUSING LEAD SURFACE
LOW/FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL STEADILY PROGRESS TO THE EAST-CENTRAL U.S.
TUE AS EMBEDDED IMPULSES DIG TO THE LEE OF AN AMPLIFIED ERN
PACIFIC/WEST COAST RIDGE ALOFT. THE SUPPORTING AND INCREASINGLY
NEGATIVE-TILT TROUGH ALOFT WORKS OVER THE ERN US AND OUT THROUGH THE
NERN STATES INTO DAYS 4/5 WED/THU.  MODELS/ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON THIS AMPLIFIED PATTERN AND THE MOST RECENT
GEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOW GOOD CORRELATION TO NEXT THURSDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL BEGIN TO
EXIT BY MONDAY. AT THE SURFACE APPEARS ANOTHER INVERTED
TROUGH/ONSHORE FLOW WILL YIELD TO PRECIP ALONG THE MASS COASTLINE ON
MONDAY. ASIDE FROM THIS QUICK MESOSCALE EVENT THE MAIN FOCUS IS ON
THE LONGWAVE DIGGING TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WHICH WILL PUSH A
FEW SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE FLOW. FIRST ONE DEVELOPS A WEAK WAVE
MOVING TOWARDS THE REGION LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE LOCATION/STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM BUT
APPEARS THAT THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF A SNOW/WINTRY MIX IN THE
INTERIOR. AS THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS AN ANOMALOUS LOW OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WILL DEVELOP A SECONDARY LOW JUST WEST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
PER ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. STILL A SOME SPREAD BUT IF THIS DOUBLE LOW
DOES DEVELOP THEN THE RAIN AND WIND ASPECT OF THE SYSTEM
INCREASES...DETAILS BELOW. STILL NEED TO WORK OUT MINOR DETAILS
WITH THIS PARTICULAR SYSTEM BUT WITH 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
AWAY AND GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THIS SYSTEM
WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

DETAILS...

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFFSHORE AS
DIGGING TROUGH BEGINS TO SET-UP OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. APPEARS
ANOTHER MESO-SCALE INVERTED TROUGH WILL SET UP ON MONDAY AND LAST
INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE MASS EAST COASTLINE THANKS TO ONSHORE
EASTERLY FLOW. APPEARS THE COLUMN WILL SATURATE PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
AND SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW QPF MAKING IT
ONSHORE DURING THIS TIME FRAME. HOWEVER THE EC IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER
AND KEEP THE BULK OF THE PRECIP JUST OFFSHORE. ADD A CHANCE OF POPS
DUE TO THE NAM/GFS MODEL CONTINUITY.

BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY A SOUTHERN BRANCH STORM SYSTEM
FORMS ALONG THE SE COAST AND TAKES A TRACK OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST. THIS SYSTEM GETS CAUGHT UP WITH THE OVERALL LARGE SCALE
AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER AIR PATTERN. THERE IS DECENT WARM
ADVECTION WITH COLD AIR DAMMING ACROSS THE INTERIOR. BIGGEST
QUESTION WILL BE IS THERE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR PRECIP DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. IF PRECIP OVERRUNS THEN COULD SEE FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE
ACROSS THE INTERIOR LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. DURING THE DAY
ON TUESDAY...GOOD AMOUNT OF WARM AIR WILL PUSH SURFACE TEMPS ABOVE
FREEZING ALLOWING FOR ANY PRECIP TO BE MORE OF THE LIQUID VARIETY
AHEAD OF THE CHRISTMAS EVE STORM. HOWEVER GUIDANCE IS ALWAYS TOO
FAST IN SCOURING TEMPS OUT ESP ACROSS THE CT VALLEY SO WE WILL NEED
TO MONITOR THIS CLOSELY...ESP DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND THE HIGH IN
EASTERN CANADA.

WE COULD ALSO SEE SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS ON TUESDAY. SEE
BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SYSTEM LOW CONFIDENCE
ON DETAILS.

STRONG ANOMALOUS SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE GREAT
LAKES...DEVELOPING A POTENTIAL SECONDARY SURFACE LOW JUST WEST OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. STILL A LOT OF DETAILS TO WORK OUT AS THIS
SYSTEM IS STILL 5 DAYS AWAY...HOWEVER ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW
STRONG AGREEMENT SO HAVE INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT A POTENT STORM
WILL OCCUR. LATEST 00Z GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT MOST PRECIP WILL BE
LIQUID WITH A DEEP SUBTROPICAL CONNECTION BACK ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO...PW ANOMALIES FORECAST TO RISE BETWEEN +3 TO +4. CURRENT
PWATS ARE PROGGED ABOVE 1.6 INCHES SO HAVE CONTINUED THE CATEGORICAL
POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE...IN FACT WE MAY BE
CLOSE AT BREAKING RECORD HIGH TEMPS IF TEMPS WARM TO 60F OR ABOVE ON
CHRISTMAS EVE.  AS THE SYSTEM WRAPS UP INTO CANADA...COLD AIR
ADVECTION SHOULD CIRCULATE AROUND AND BEGIN A TRANSITION FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST IN TURNING P-TYPE TO SNOW. HOWEVER LATEST
GUIDANCE DOES SHOW A QUICK MOVING DRY SLOT SO SNOWFALL WILL STRUGGLE
DUE TO LACK OF MOISTURE.

THIS SYSTEM IS QUITE POTENT SO WE WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL
HAZARDS. CURRENTLY THINK THAT WE COULD POSSIBLE URBAN FLOODING
ISSUES AS MODELS PROGGED WELL OVER 1.5 INCHES OF QPF. LATEST EC EVEN
SHOWS 2.5 INCHES OF QPF IS POSSIBLE. THE GEFS SHOW A MOISTURE FLUX
AT 850 MB BEING 4 TO 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS AWAY...AND WITH THE
TROPICAL CONNECTION AND STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW COULD SEE HIGHER
AMOUNTS DUE TO TOPOGRAPHY ENHANCEMENTS. RAIN FALL RECORDS MAY FALL
IF EVERYTHING FALLS INTO PLACE.

ALSO BELIEVE THAT WE MAY SEE SOME WIND ISSUES WITH THIS SYSTEM.
GUIDANCE RIGHT NOW IS SHOWING A 45 TO 55 KT JET AT 925 MB...HOWEVER
IT WILL BE HARD TO BREAK THE INVERSION WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW.
RIGHT NOW BELIEVE THAT WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED BUT IF THIS
SYSTEM STRENGTHEN EVEN MORE SO A STRONGER JET IS POSSIBLE.

CONTINUED THE MENTIONED OF ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE FORECAST PER PREV
FORECASTER SUGGESTION. BELIEVE IT COULD BE POSSIBLE AS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR...WITH THE ANOMALOUS JET AND
SHOWALTERS CLOSE TO ZERO.

FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

ONCE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO SOUTHERN CANADA...EXPECT A RATHER
FAST UPPER W FLOW IN PLACE. MAY SEE LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWERS BUT TEMPS
WILL FALL BACK CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THROUGH 00Z...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO
OVERSPREAD EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AND EVENTUALLY OVERSPREAD THE INTERIOR
THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS THIS AFTERNOON. MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTH AND
WEST OF CAPE COD CANAL...RAIN SHOWERS SOUTH AND EAST. LOCALIZED
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE JUST INLAND FROM THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND
COAST...WHERE SNOW IS FALLING.

TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MVFR CONDITIONS DOMINATE
IN LOWER CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN SNOW SHOWERS. PRECIPITATION
AFFECTS MAINLY EASTERN NEW ENGLAND BUT STILL SOME SCATTERED
ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
NORTH AND WEST OF CAPE COD CANAL...RAIN SHOWERS SOUTH AND EAST.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. FLURRIES AND SNOW
SHOWERS MAY AFFECT THE TERMINAL BY 21Z.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT MOSTLY
VFR...ISOLATED MVFR ALONG THE MASS EAST COASTLINE IN RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS WILL
BE DETERIORATING AS HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ISO THUNDER AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS MOVE INTO THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS IN CIGS AND VSBYS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS QUEBEC WILL RESULT IN PERSISTENT NORTHEAST
WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  WIND GUSTS UP TO 20
KNOTS WITH SEAS BETWEEN 2 AND 4 FEET ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST
WATERS...SO NO HEADLINES PLANNED. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY THAT A
BRIEF SURGE OF NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS WITH MARGINAL 5
FOOT SEAS COULD AFFECT OUR NORTHERN WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUN
MORNING...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ISSUE ANY HEADLINES AT THIS
POINT.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. CONTINUOUS NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP SEAS CHOPPY.
LINGERING NORTHEAST SWELL MAY BUMP SEAS ABOVE 5FT ESP ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN WATERS. SCA MAY BE NEEDED...BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...NE WINDS WILL INCREASE...GUSTING TO 30 KT
TUE THEN SHIFT TO SE GUSTING TO 30-35 KT WED...HIGHEST ON THE OUTER
WATERS. SEAS BUILD UP TO 7-11 FT BY WED. GALES WILL BE NEEDED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL OCCUR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. BREAKING
IT DOWN...ON TUESDAY HIGH TIDE AT BOSTON WILL BE 11.6 FT. THERE WILL
BE ONSHORE FLOW DURING THIS HIGH TIDE ALLOWING FOR MINOR SPLASHOVER.
IF WIND GUSTS INCREASE THEN COULD POSSIBLE SEE MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING.

ON WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL SWITCH TO A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DURING
THE DAY AND INCREASE QUICKLY FROM APPROACHING SYSTEM AND DESCENT
PRESSURE FALLS. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE IN BOSTON IS 11.7 FT
AND WITH ANY STRENGTH ON THE EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL PUSH THE TIDE
OVER. RIGHT NOW BELIEVE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE
EAST COASTLINE. HOWEVER WEDNESDAY EVENING...THE WIND GOES IN A MORE
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AND HIGH TIDE IN PROVIDENCE WILL BE 5.2 FT. 925
MB LLJ STRENGTHENS TO 50-60 KTS WHICH COULD PUSH A DESCENT SURGE UP
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST DURING THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. THINKING THAT
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING COULD OCCUR BUT CANNOT RULE OUT MODERATE
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...ESP IF LLJ STRENGTHENS EVEN MORE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN/RLG
NEAR TERM...FRANK/RLG
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...DUNTEN/RLG
MARINE...FRANK/DUNTEN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KBOX 201746
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1246 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE REGION
FROM EAST TO WEST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUN. WEAK LOW PRESSURE
WILL PASS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND BRINGING ANOTHER PERIOD OF PRECIP
MON NIGHT AND TUE. A MUCH STRONGER STORM PASSING WEST OF NEW
ENGLAND WILL BRING HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS AND COASTAL
FLOODING CONCERNS TO THE REGION WED INTO WED EVENING. DRY BUT VERY
WINDY CONDITIONS FOLLOW FOR CHRISTMAS DAY INTO FRI.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1245 PM UPDATE...SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS THIS AFTERNOON. THEY ARE STRUGGLING TO MOVE
WESTWARD OF CAPE ANN AND EASTERN NORFOLK COUNTY DUE TO MUCH DRIER
AIR. EVENTUALLY THE SHOWERS WILL OVERCOME THE DRIER AIR BUT EXPECT
THIS TO TAKE ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS...DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY
THE WINDS TURN TO THE NORTHEAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

INTERESTING MESOSCALE SETUP AS AN INVERTED TROUGH COMBINES WITH SOME
OCEAN ENHANCEMENT.  APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL ALLOW FOR
EASTERLY FLOW JUST OFF THE GROUND.  THIS COMBINED WITH NORTHEAST
SURFACE WINDS WILL ALLOW LOW LEVEL OF THE ATMOSPHERE TO MOISTEN.
SOUNDINGS ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND BECOME SATURATED ALL THE WAY UP
TO THE -9C LAYER JUST ABOVE 850 MB.  THIS IS FAVORABLE FOR SOME
DECENT SNOW GROWTH...ITS JUST LOWER IN THE ATMOSPHERE THAN WE
TYPICALLY SEE WITH MORE SYNOPTIC SNOW EVENTS.  WHILE THIS IS NOT A
TRUE OCEAN EFFECT EVENT...DELTA T VALUES FROM THE MIXED LAYER TO THE
OCEAN ARE AROUND 15C.  THEREFORE...EXPECT SOME OCEAN ENHANCEMENT.

TIMING:

WHILE FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST NEW
ENGLAND THIS MORNING.  THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL  PRECIPITATION SHOULD
OVERSPREAD PLYMOUTH COUNTY AS WELL AS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS THIS
AFTERNOON.  GIVEN EASTERLY FLOW JUST OFF THE GROUND...EXPECT SNOW
SHOWERS TO OVERSPREAD MOST OF EASTERN NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING AS
LOW LEVELS MOISTEN.  IN FACT...SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS AFFECT EVEN OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES.

PTYPE:

MAINLY SNOW FOR ALL BUT PORTIONS OF COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY AND ONTO
THE CAPE/ISLANDS.  A SUBTLE COASTAL FRONT LOOKS TO SETUP ACROSS
SOUTHEAST COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY.  PTYPE WILL BE SNOW TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THIS REGION...BUT ENOUGH MILD AIR SHOULD COME IN OFF
THE OCEAN FOR A CHANGE TO RAIN SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THIS REGION.
NOT EXPECTING THE POSITION OF THIS SUBTLE BOUNDARY TO CHANGE MUCH
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

SNOW ACCUMULATIONS:

WE ARE GENERALLY LOOKING AT A COATING TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION.  THE MAIN FOCUS FOR 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MA...AWAY FROM THE SOUTHEAST PLYMOUTH COUNTY
COAST.  ALSO...THE WORCESTER HILLS INTO NORTHWEST RHODE ISLAND MIGHT
BE ANOTHER AREA AS A RESULT OF THE SUBTLE UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE
WIND.  YOU CAN ACTUALLY SEE THAT IN SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION
MODEL GUIDANCE.

THERE IS ONE AREA TO WATCH IN PARTICULAR...FROM NORTHWEST PLYMOUTH
COUNTY AND INTO NORFOLK COUNTY BASED ON MESOSCALE MODELS AND PATTERN
RECOGNITION.  WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE VERY LOCALIZED 3 TO 4
INCH SNOW AMOUNTS...GIVEN SOME OCEAN ENHANCEMENT AND A LITTLE FOCUS
ON THE COASTAL FRONT.  WILL TRY TO HIGHLIGHT THIS AREA IN OUR
SNOWFALL AND PROBABILISTIC GRAPHICS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE DURING THE MORNING WITH
MOIST EASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS. AGAIN...PTYPE WILL BE SNOW
EXCEPT ACROSS SOUTHEAST PLYMOUTH COUNTY/CAPE AND ISLANDS WHERE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL PROBABLY BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN SHOWERS.
WHILE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER INTO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...EXPECT A DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL LIFT WEAKENS. IT WILL REMAIN CLOUDY THOUGH
WITH TEMPS IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* INVERTED TROUGH WILL BRING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO THE MASS EAST
  COASTLINE MONDAY INTO TUES MORNING.
* WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MON NIGHT/TUESDAY COULD BRING WINTRY
  MIX TO INTERIOR
* ANOMALOUS SYSTEM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING HEAVY
  RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS AROUND CHRISTMAS
  EVE

OVERVIEW...

OVERALL 00Z GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT SYNOPTICALLY WITH ISSUES ON
TIMING AND SMALLER SCALE FEATURES. IT REMAINS EVIDENT THAT AN
AMPLIFIED MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND PCPN FOCUSING LEAD SURFACE
LOW/FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL STEADILY PROGRESS TO THE EAST-CENTRAL U.S.
TUE AS EMBEDDED IMPULSES DIG TO THE LEE OF AN AMPLIFIED ERN
PACIFIC/WEST COAST RIDGE ALOFT. THE SUPPORTING AND INCREASINGLY
NEGATIVE-TILT TROUGH ALOFT WORKS OVER THE ERN US AND OUT THROUGH THE
NERN STATES INTO DAYS 4/5 WED/THU.  MODELS/ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON THIS AMPLIFIED PATTERN AND THE MOST RECENT
GEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOW GOOD CORRELATION TO NEXT THURSDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL BEGIN TO
EXIT BY MONDAY. AT THE SURFACE APPEARS ANOTHER INVERTED
TROUGH/ONSHORE FLOW WILL YIELD TO PRECIP ALONG THE MASS COASTLINE ON
MONDAY. ASIDE FROM THIS QUICK MESOSCALE EVENT THE MAIN FOCUS IS ON
THE LONGWAVE DIGGING TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WHICH WILL PUSH A
FEW SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE FLOW. FIRST ONE DEVELOPS A WEAK WAVE
MOVING TOWARDS THE REGION LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE LOCATION/STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM BUT
APPEARS THAT THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF A SNOW/WINTRY MIX IN THE
INTERIOR. AS THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS AN ANOMALOUS LOW OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WILL DEVELOP A SECONDARY LOW JUST WEST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
PER ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. STILL A SOME SPREAD BUT IF THIS DOUBLE LOW
DOES DEVELOP THEN THE RAIN AND WIND ASPECT OF THE SYSTEM
INCREASES...DETAILS BELOW. STILL NEED TO WORK OUT MINOR DETAILS
WITH THIS PARTICULAR SYSTEM BUT WITH 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
AWAY AND GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THIS SYSTEM
WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

DETAILS...

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFFSHORE AS
DIGGING TROUGH BEGINS TO SET-UP OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. APPEARS
ANOTHER MESO-SCALE INVERTED TROUGH WILL SET UP ON MONDAY AND LAST
INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE MASS EAST COASTLINE THANKS TO ONSHORE
EASTERLY FLOW. APPEARS THE COLUMN WILL SATURATE PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
AND SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW QPF MAKING IT
ONSHORE DURING THIS TIME FRAME. HOWEVER THE EC IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER
AND KEEP THE BULK OF THE PRECIP JUST OFFSHORE. ADD A CHANCE OF POPS
DUE TO THE NAM/GFS MODEL CONTINUITY.

BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY A SOUTHERN BRANCH STORM SYSTEM
FORMS ALONG THE SE COAST AND TAKES A TRACK OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST. THIS SYSTEM GETS CAUGHT UP WITH THE OVERALL LARGE SCALE
AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER AIR PATTERN. THERE IS DECENT WARM
ADVECTION WITH COLD AIR DAMMING ACROSS THE INTERIOR. BIGGEST
QUESTION WILL BE IS THERE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR PRECIP DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. IF PRECIP OVERRUNS THEN COULD SEE FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE
ACROSS THE INTERIOR LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. DURING THE DAY
ON TUESDAY...GOOD AMOUNT OF WARM AIR WILL PUSH SURFACE TEMPS ABOVE
FREEZING ALLOWING FOR ANY PRECIP TO BE MORE OF THE LIQUID VARIETY
AHEAD OF THE CHRISTMAS EVE STORM. HOWEVER GUIDANCE IS ALWAYS TOO
FAST IN SCOURING TEMPS OUT ESP ACROSS THE CT VALLEY SO WE WILL NEED
TO MONITOR THIS CLOSELY...ESP DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND THE HIGH IN
EASTERN CANADA.

WE COULD ALSO SEE SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS ON TUESDAY. SEE
BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SYSTEM LOW CONFIDENCE
ON DETAILS.

STRONG ANOMALOUS SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE GREAT
LAKES...DEVELOPING A POTENTIAL SECONDARY SURFACE LOW JUST WEST OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. STILL A LOT OF DETAILS TO WORK OUT AS THIS
SYSTEM IS STILL 5 DAYS AWAY...HOWEVER ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW
STRONG AGREEMENT SO HAVE INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT A POTENT STORM
WILL OCCUR. LATEST 00Z GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT MOST PRECIP WILL BE
LIQUID WITH A DEEP SUBTROPICAL CONNECTION BACK ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO...PW ANOMALIES FORECAST TO RISE BETWEEN +3 TO +4. CURRENT
PWATS ARE PROGGED ABOVE 1.6 INCHES SO HAVE CONTINUED THE CATEGORICAL
POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE...IN FACT WE MAY BE
CLOSE AT BREAKING RECORD HIGH TEMPS IF TEMPS WARM TO 60F OR ABOVE ON
CHRISTMAS EVE.  AS THE SYSTEM WRAPS UP INTO CANADA...COLD AIR
ADVECTION SHOULD CIRCULATE AROUND AND BEGIN A TRANSITION FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST IN TURNING P-TYPE TO SNOW. HOWEVER LATEST
GUIDANCE DOES SHOW A QUICK MOVING DRY SLOT SO SNOWFALL WILL STRUGGLE
DUE TO LACK OF MOISTURE.

THIS SYSTEM IS QUITE POTENT SO WE WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL
HAZARDS. CURRENTLY THINK THAT WE COULD POSSIBLE URBAN FLOODING
ISSUES AS MODELS PROGGED WELL OVER 1.5 INCHES OF QPF. LATEST EC EVEN
SHOWS 2.5 INCHES OF QPF IS POSSIBLE. THE GEFS SHOW A MOISTURE FLUX
AT 850 MB BEING 4 TO 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS AWAY...AND WITH THE
TROPICAL CONNECTION AND STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW COULD SEE HIGHER
AMOUNTS DUE TO TOPOGRAPHY ENHANCEMENTS. RAIN FALL RECORDS MAY FALL
IF EVERYTHING FALLS INTO PLACE.

ALSO BELIEVE THAT WE MAY SEE SOME WIND ISSUES WITH THIS SYSTEM.
GUIDANCE RIGHT NOW IS SHOWING A 45 TO 55 KT JET AT 925 MB...HOWEVER
IT WILL BE HARD TO BREAK THE INVERSION WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW.
RIGHT NOW BELIEVE THAT WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED BUT IF THIS
SYSTEM STRENGTHEN EVEN MORE SO A STRONGER JET IS POSSIBLE.

CONTINUED THE MENTIONED OF ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE FORECAST PER PREV
FORECASTER SUGGESTION. BELIEVE IT COULD BE POSSIBLE AS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR...WITH THE ANOMALOUS JET AND
SHOWALTERS CLOSE TO ZERO.

FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

ONCE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO SOUTHERN CANADA...EXPECT A RATHER
FAST UPPER W FLOW IN PLACE. MAY SEE LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWERS BUT TEMPS
WILL FALL BACK CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THROUGH 00Z...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO
OVERSPREAD EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AND EVENTUALLY OVERSPREAD THE INTERIOR
THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS THIS AFTERNOON. MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTH AND
WEST OF CAPE COD CANAL...RAIN SHOWERS SOUTH AND EAST. LOCALIZED
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE JUST INLAND FROM THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND
COAST...WHERE SNOW IS FALLING.

TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MVFR CONDITIONS DOMINATE
IN LOWER CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN SNOW SHOWERS. PRECIPITATION
AFFECTS MAINLY EASTERN NEW ENGLAND BUT STILL SOME SCATTERED
ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
NORTH AND WEST OF CAPE COD CANAL...RAIN SHOWERS SOUTH AND EAST.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. FLURRIES AND SNOW
SHOWERS MAY AFFECT THE TERMINAL BY 21Z.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT MOSTLY
VFR...ISOLATED MVFR ALONG THE MASS EAST COASTLINE IN RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS WILL
BE DETERIORATING AS HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ISO THUNDER AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS MOVE INTO THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS IN CIGS AND VSBYS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS QUEBEC WILL RESULT IN PERSISTENT NORTHEAST
WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  WIND GUSTS UP TO 20
KNOTS WITH SEAS BETWEEN 2 AND 4 FEET ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST
WATERS...SO NO HEADLINES PLANNED. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY THAT A
BRIEF SURGE OF NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS WITH MARGINAL 5
FOOT SEAS COULD AFFECT OUR NORTHERN WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUN
MORNING...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ISSUE ANY HEADLINES AT THIS
POINT.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. CONTINUOUS NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP SEAS CHOPPY.
LINGERING NORTHEAST SWELL MAY BUMP SEAS ABOVE 5FT ESP ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN WATERS. SCA MAY BE NEEDED...BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...NE WINDS WILL INCREASE...GUSTING TO 30 KT
TUE THEN SHIFT TO SE GUSTING TO 30-35 KT WED...HIGHEST ON THE OUTER
WATERS. SEAS BUILD UP TO 7-11 FT BY WED. GALES WILL BE NEEDED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL OCCUR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. BREAKING
IT DOWN...ON TUESDAY HIGH TIDE AT BOSTON WILL BE 11.6 FT. THERE WILL
BE ONSHORE FLOW DURING THIS HIGH TIDE ALLOWING FOR MINOR SPLASHOVER.
IF WIND GUSTS INCREASE THEN COULD POSSIBLE SEE MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING.

ON WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL SWITCH TO A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DURING
THE DAY AND INCREASE QUICKLY FROM APPROACHING SYSTEM AND DESCENT
PRESSURE FALLS. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE IN BOSTON IS 11.7 FT
AND WITH ANY STRENGTH ON THE EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL PUSH THE TIDE
OVER. RIGHT NOW BELIEVE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE
EAST COASTLINE. HOWEVER WEDNESDAY EVENING...THE WIND GOES IN A MORE
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AND HIGH TIDE IN PROVIDENCE WILL BE 5.2 FT. 925
MB LLJ STRENGTHENS TO 50-60 KTS WHICH COULD PUSH A DESCENT SURGE UP
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST DURING THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. THINKING THAT
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING COULD OCCUR BUT CANNOT RULE OUT MODERATE
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...ESP IF LLJ STRENGTHENS EVEN MORE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN/RLG
NEAR TERM...FRANK/RLG
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...DUNTEN/RLG
MARINE...FRANK/DUNTEN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KALY 201733
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1233 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...WHILE
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION. THESE UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES WILL BRING AREAS OF CLOUDS THROUGH MONDAY...AND
PERHAPS SOME FLURRIES FOR SOUTHEAST AREAS LATE TONIGHT. UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH
A PERIOD OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1215 PM...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF
SOUTHERN VT...THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION AND THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND EXTREME NORTHERN BERKSHIRES. MEANWHILE...LOW
CLOUDS TRAPPED BENEATH A STRONG INVERSION WITHIN THE H925-H850
LAYER REMAIN FOR AREAS TO THE S AND W. WINDS WITHIN THIS LAYER ARE
GRADUALLY VEERING MORE INTO THE SE...WITH ADDITIONAL LOW CLOUDS
UPSTREAM IN CT. SO...EXPECT SKIES TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON FOR MOST OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON
VALLEY...MOHAWK VALLEY AND MUCH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. MEANWHILE...SUNSHINE
SHOULD LAST AT LEAST INTO MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN
VT AND THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...BEFORE SOME CLOUDS REACH
THESE REGIONS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING HOURS.

SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS MAY INTERMITTENTLY OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NW CT AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY THROUGH MIDDAY...BEFORE CLOUDS
INCREASE ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.

TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S IN MOST VALLEY
AREAS...WITH MAINLY LOWER/MID 20S EXPECTED ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

MEANWHILE...AN UPPER IMPULSE CURRENTLY IN THE OH VALLEY SHOULD
BRING ADDITIONAL CLOUDINESS TO ALL AREAS THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT. THERE IS VERY LITTLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FEATURE BUT THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT SOME PATCHY SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD OCCUR EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY INTO WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
ENERGY. INDICATING ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS IN THOSE AREAS BUT JUST
MOSTLY CLOUDY IN MOST OTHER AREAS TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE
LOWER TO MID 20S...MID TEENS TO AROUND 20 IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MUCH AGREEMENT AMONG THE MDL SUITE (NAM/GFS/ECMWF) DURING THE
PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THE ENTIRE PACKAGE IS SLOWER THAN 12UTC PACKAGE.
THE GEM WAS NOT AVBL.

SUNDAY SFC HIGH PRESSURE COVERS MUCH OF EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WHILE
AT 500HPA GENERALLY A FAST SORTA ZONAL FLOW IS IN PLACE. HWVR THERE
ARE TWO SHORT WVS OVER THE NE USA...AND INVERSIONS REMAIN IN
PLACE RESULTING IN CONSIDERABLE MID AND LOWER CLOUDS. SUN NT THE
500 HPA TROF DEPARTS THE NE WITH SFC HIGH CENTERED FM QB TO ATLC
SEABOARD. WITH MODEST 500HPA RIDGING BUILDING OVER SEABOARD CLOUDS
SHOULD DCR WITH FAIR CONDS.

MONDAY A SERIES OF 500HPA SHORT WVS CARVE A MAJOR FULL LATITUDE
TROF IN THE GRT PLAINS ALONG WITH SFC CYCLOGEN OVER MN/WI.
MEANWHILE FURTHER EAST 500HPA RIDGING ENSUES ALONG THE E
SEABOARD. THIS 500HPA TROF IS WEAKER THAN PVS RUNS DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD. MEANWHILE SFC HIGH ONLY SLOWLY RETREATS OFFSHORE. AS SUCH
WK SE FLOW SETS UP AND MANY AREAS MAY SE SOME SUN PART OF MONDAY.

BUT BY LATE MON AFTN WK ISENTROPIC LIFTS IS DEVELOPING OVER MUCH OF
THE EAST WITH VEERING FLOW W/HT...CSTL FRONT IS SETTING UP ALONG THE
ATLC COAST...AND CLOUDS WILL INCR AND THICKEN. MON INTO TUES NT
500HPA PATTERN BECOMES GREATLY AMPLIFIED WITH SHARPENING RIDGE ALONG
E COAST...AND FULL LAT TROF IN MISS VLY CUTTING OFF. S-SE FLOW
COVERS MUCH OF THE EAST WITH MILDER AIR STREAMING N...HWVR
CSTL/WMFNT REMAINS S OF RGN...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTS TO INCR.

RESULT WILL BE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND INCRG CHC OF PCPN. THREAT OF
PCPN WILL ONLY SLOWLY INCR TO SLGT CHC MON NT AND CHC TUE. ANY
PCPN MON NT INTO TUE WILL BE SPOTTY AND LT...--SHSN..ZL...--SHRA. BY
MID MRNG TUES IT SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ONLY LIQ PCPN.

THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A SFC WV ALONG THE CSTL FRONT TUES SUG A
HIGHER PROB OF -SHRA MAINLY S PRTNS OF FCA MON NT AND TUE...BUT
AMNTS ARE STILL QUITE LT. TEMPS WILL BE NR NORMALS MON...INCRG TO
10 DEG ABV NORMALS TUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ALL GUID IS POINTING TO A VERY DYNAMIC SYSTEM IMPACTING THE EAST
CHRISTMAS EVE AND DAY...MAKING FOR A VERY BUMPY AND WET RIDE FOR
SANTA.

BY WED MRNG FULL LAT 500HPA TROF IN MISS VLY...AND POWERFUL JET
ROUNDS ITS BASE...DRIVING IT EAST...AND NEGATIVELY TILTING IT. RAPID
CYCLOGEN ENSUES IN OHIO VALLEY...AS LOW DEEPENS AND RACES N INTO
GRTLKS AND CANADA. 500HPA TROF SWINGS EAST AND LLVL JET
INTENSIFIES DRAWING VERY MILD AIR MASS AND RICH ATLC AND GULF
MOISTURE NWRD. SHRA WILL INCR IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DURING THE
DAY WED...AS SYSTEMS CDFNT PUSHES E...TO BUF BY EVNG ALB BY 06UTC
AND OFFSHORE BY CHRISTMAS MRNG. CDFNT MAY BE ACCOMP BY HVY FRONTAL
RAIN BAND AND MAYBE ISOLD TSTM. TEMPS WILL INCR DURING THE DAY
WITH HIGHS REACHING NEAR 50. QPF IN ECMWF ON THE ORDER OF 1.5 TO
3.0 INCHES....AND GFS 0.5 TO 2.0 INCHES.

SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE RAPIDLY CHRISTMAS DAY TWRD HUDSON`S
BAY...WITH STRONG CAA INTO FCA ON VERY STRONG NW-W WINDS. TEMPS
WILL PROBABLY FALL DURING THE DAY. LK EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
DVLP INTO W FCA...AND WITH CUT OFF LIFTING NE...NW FLOW -SHSN OVER
ADRNDKS A GOOD BET.

CHRISTMAS NT THIS SYSTEM RACES N INTO N CANADA AND -SHSN END ACROSS
THE N PRTNS OF RGN. THU NT AND FRI 500HPA RIDGING REASSERTS ITSELF
OVER THE EAST...AS WELL AS AT THE SFC. FRI INTO FRI NT SHOULD
REMAIN FAIR...HWVR ANOTHER STRONG TROF IS MVNG INTO THE GRTLKS FRI
NT...WITH MILDER CONDS AHEAD OF IT...AND POSSIBLE PCPN ARRIVING BY
FRI NT OR SAT.

WHILE THERE ARES SOME TIMING AND PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES BTWN THE GFS
AND ECMWF ON DAY 7 HPC TAKES THE MIDDLE ROAD ON DAY 7. UNTIL DAY
7 ECMWF/GFS IN PRETTY MUCH IN AGREEMENT. WILL POPULATE WITH HPC
FROM MID SHIFT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION
LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BEING DRAWN NORTHWEST FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND WEAK
DYNAMICS FROM THE DISTURBANCE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH....MAY BRING
SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES TO SOME OF THE TAF SITES LATER
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

OVERALL FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD TREND TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THE EXPECTION OF KPSF...WHERE MVFR CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE. VFR LEVEL
CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LOWER INTO THE MVFR RANGE LATER
TONIGHT...AND PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY.

THE CHANCE FOR SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WILL INCREASE
LATER TONIGHT...MAINLY FOR KPSF/KPOU...WITH TIMING OF POSSIBLE
DEVELOPMENT MAINLY AFTER 08Z-10Z/SUN AND LINGERING UNTIL AT LEAST
14Z-16Z/SUNDAY. A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THESE TIMES. IT IS MORE UNCERTAIN WHETHER ANY
LIGHT SNOW WILL REACH KALB AND KGFL. FOR NOW...HAVE INDICATED
A CHANCE AT KALB...BUT RADAR TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED
OVERNIGHT IN CASE THE AREAL EXPANSION OF ANY LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES
REACHES FURTHER N.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE N TO NE AT GENERALLY 5-10 KT THIS
AFTERNOON...TRENDING TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN...SLEET...DZ.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY DEFINITE RA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...RA.
CHRISTMAS DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ANTICIPATED INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY/CHRISTMAS AS A LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
ARE LIKELY...WITH POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING AND SIGNIFICANT
WITHIN BANK RISES OF LARGER STEM RIVERS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...KL/11/NAS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...KL/NAS
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER







000
FXUS61 KALY 201733
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1233 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...WHILE
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION. THESE UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES WILL BRING AREAS OF CLOUDS THROUGH MONDAY...AND
PERHAPS SOME FLURRIES FOR SOUTHEAST AREAS LATE TONIGHT. UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH
A PERIOD OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1215 PM...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF
SOUTHERN VT...THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION AND THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND EXTREME NORTHERN BERKSHIRES. MEANWHILE...LOW
CLOUDS TRAPPED BENEATH A STRONG INVERSION WITHIN THE H925-H850
LAYER REMAIN FOR AREAS TO THE S AND W. WINDS WITHIN THIS LAYER ARE
GRADUALLY VEERING MORE INTO THE SE...WITH ADDITIONAL LOW CLOUDS
UPSTREAM IN CT. SO...EXPECT SKIES TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON FOR MOST OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON
VALLEY...MOHAWK VALLEY AND MUCH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. MEANWHILE...SUNSHINE
SHOULD LAST AT LEAST INTO MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN
VT AND THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...BEFORE SOME CLOUDS REACH
THESE REGIONS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING HOURS.

SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS MAY INTERMITTENTLY OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NW CT AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY THROUGH MIDDAY...BEFORE CLOUDS
INCREASE ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.

TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S IN MOST VALLEY
AREAS...WITH MAINLY LOWER/MID 20S EXPECTED ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

MEANWHILE...AN UPPER IMPULSE CURRENTLY IN THE OH VALLEY SHOULD
BRING ADDITIONAL CLOUDINESS TO ALL AREAS THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT. THERE IS VERY LITTLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FEATURE BUT THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT SOME PATCHY SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD OCCUR EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY INTO WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
ENERGY. INDICATING ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS IN THOSE AREAS BUT JUST
MOSTLY CLOUDY IN MOST OTHER AREAS TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE
LOWER TO MID 20S...MID TEENS TO AROUND 20 IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MUCH AGREEMENT AMONG THE MDL SUITE (NAM/GFS/ECMWF) DURING THE
PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THE ENTIRE PACKAGE IS SLOWER THAN 12UTC PACKAGE.
THE GEM WAS NOT AVBL.

SUNDAY SFC HIGH PRESSURE COVERS MUCH OF EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WHILE
AT 500HPA GENERALLY A FAST SORTA ZONAL FLOW IS IN PLACE. HWVR THERE
ARE TWO SHORT WVS OVER THE NE USA...AND INVERSIONS REMAIN IN
PLACE RESULTING IN CONSIDERABLE MID AND LOWER CLOUDS. SUN NT THE
500 HPA TROF DEPARTS THE NE WITH SFC HIGH CENTERED FM QB TO ATLC
SEABOARD. WITH MODEST 500HPA RIDGING BUILDING OVER SEABOARD CLOUDS
SHOULD DCR WITH FAIR CONDS.

MONDAY A SERIES OF 500HPA SHORT WVS CARVE A MAJOR FULL LATITUDE
TROF IN THE GRT PLAINS ALONG WITH SFC CYCLOGEN OVER MN/WI.
MEANWHILE FURTHER EAST 500HPA RIDGING ENSUES ALONG THE E
SEABOARD. THIS 500HPA TROF IS WEAKER THAN PVS RUNS DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD. MEANWHILE SFC HIGH ONLY SLOWLY RETREATS OFFSHORE. AS SUCH
WK SE FLOW SETS UP AND MANY AREAS MAY SE SOME SUN PART OF MONDAY.

BUT BY LATE MON AFTN WK ISENTROPIC LIFTS IS DEVELOPING OVER MUCH OF
THE EAST WITH VEERING FLOW W/HT...CSTL FRONT IS SETTING UP ALONG THE
ATLC COAST...AND CLOUDS WILL INCR AND THICKEN. MON INTO TUES NT
500HPA PATTERN BECOMES GREATLY AMPLIFIED WITH SHARPENING RIDGE ALONG
E COAST...AND FULL LAT TROF IN MISS VLY CUTTING OFF. S-SE FLOW
COVERS MUCH OF THE EAST WITH MILDER AIR STREAMING N...HWVR
CSTL/WMFNT REMAINS S OF RGN...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTS TO INCR.

RESULT WILL BE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND INCRG CHC OF PCPN. THREAT OF
PCPN WILL ONLY SLOWLY INCR TO SLGT CHC MON NT AND CHC TUE. ANY
PCPN MON NT INTO TUE WILL BE SPOTTY AND LT...--SHSN..ZL...--SHRA. BY
MID MRNG TUES IT SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ONLY LIQ PCPN.

THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A SFC WV ALONG THE CSTL FRONT TUES SUG A
HIGHER PROB OF -SHRA MAINLY S PRTNS OF FCA MON NT AND TUE...BUT
AMNTS ARE STILL QUITE LT. TEMPS WILL BE NR NORMALS MON...INCRG TO
10 DEG ABV NORMALS TUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ALL GUID IS POINTING TO A VERY DYNAMIC SYSTEM IMPACTING THE EAST
CHRISTMAS EVE AND DAY...MAKING FOR A VERY BUMPY AND WET RIDE FOR
SANTA.

BY WED MRNG FULL LAT 500HPA TROF IN MISS VLY...AND POWERFUL JET
ROUNDS ITS BASE...DRIVING IT EAST...AND NEGATIVELY TILTING IT. RAPID
CYCLOGEN ENSUES IN OHIO VALLEY...AS LOW DEEPENS AND RACES N INTO
GRTLKS AND CANADA. 500HPA TROF SWINGS EAST AND LLVL JET
INTENSIFIES DRAWING VERY MILD AIR MASS AND RICH ATLC AND GULF
MOISTURE NWRD. SHRA WILL INCR IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DURING THE
DAY WED...AS SYSTEMS CDFNT PUSHES E...TO BUF BY EVNG ALB BY 06UTC
AND OFFSHORE BY CHRISTMAS MRNG. CDFNT MAY BE ACCOMP BY HVY FRONTAL
RAIN BAND AND MAYBE ISOLD TSTM. TEMPS WILL INCR DURING THE DAY
WITH HIGHS REACHING NEAR 50. QPF IN ECMWF ON THE ORDER OF 1.5 TO
3.0 INCHES....AND GFS 0.5 TO 2.0 INCHES.

SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE RAPIDLY CHRISTMAS DAY TWRD HUDSON`S
BAY...WITH STRONG CAA INTO FCA ON VERY STRONG NW-W WINDS. TEMPS
WILL PROBABLY FALL DURING THE DAY. LK EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
DVLP INTO W FCA...AND WITH CUT OFF LIFTING NE...NW FLOW -SHSN OVER
ADRNDKS A GOOD BET.

CHRISTMAS NT THIS SYSTEM RACES N INTO N CANADA AND -SHSN END ACROSS
THE N PRTNS OF RGN. THU NT AND FRI 500HPA RIDGING REASSERTS ITSELF
OVER THE EAST...AS WELL AS AT THE SFC. FRI INTO FRI NT SHOULD
REMAIN FAIR...HWVR ANOTHER STRONG TROF IS MVNG INTO THE GRTLKS FRI
NT...WITH MILDER CONDS AHEAD OF IT...AND POSSIBLE PCPN ARRIVING BY
FRI NT OR SAT.

WHILE THERE ARES SOME TIMING AND PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES BTWN THE GFS
AND ECMWF ON DAY 7 HPC TAKES THE MIDDLE ROAD ON DAY 7. UNTIL DAY
7 ECMWF/GFS IN PRETTY MUCH IN AGREEMENT. WILL POPULATE WITH HPC
FROM MID SHIFT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION
LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BEING DRAWN NORTHWEST FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND WEAK
DYNAMICS FROM THE DISTURBANCE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH....MAY BRING
SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES TO SOME OF THE TAF SITES LATER
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

OVERALL FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD TREND TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THE EXPECTION OF KPSF...WHERE MVFR CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE. VFR LEVEL
CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LOWER INTO THE MVFR RANGE LATER
TONIGHT...AND PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY.

THE CHANCE FOR SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WILL INCREASE
LATER TONIGHT...MAINLY FOR KPSF/KPOU...WITH TIMING OF POSSIBLE
DEVELOPMENT MAINLY AFTER 08Z-10Z/SUN AND LINGERING UNTIL AT LEAST
14Z-16Z/SUNDAY. A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THESE TIMES. IT IS MORE UNCERTAIN WHETHER ANY
LIGHT SNOW WILL REACH KALB AND KGFL. FOR NOW...HAVE INDICATED
A CHANCE AT KALB...BUT RADAR TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED
OVERNIGHT IN CASE THE AREAL EXPANSION OF ANY LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES
REACHES FURTHER N.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE N TO NE AT GENERALLY 5-10 KT THIS
AFTERNOON...TRENDING TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN...SLEET...DZ.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY DEFINITE RA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...RA.
CHRISTMAS DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ANTICIPATED INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY/CHRISTMAS AS A LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
ARE LIKELY...WITH POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING AND SIGNIFICANT
WITHIN BANK RISES OF LARGER STEM RIVERS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...KL/11/NAS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...KL/NAS
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER







000
FXUS61 KALY 201733
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1233 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...WHILE
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION. THESE UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES WILL BRING AREAS OF CLOUDS THROUGH MONDAY...AND
PERHAPS SOME FLURRIES FOR SOUTHEAST AREAS LATE TONIGHT. UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH
A PERIOD OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1215 PM...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF
SOUTHERN VT...THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION AND THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND EXTREME NORTHERN BERKSHIRES. MEANWHILE...LOW
CLOUDS TRAPPED BENEATH A STRONG INVERSION WITHIN THE H925-H850
LAYER REMAIN FOR AREAS TO THE S AND W. WINDS WITHIN THIS LAYER ARE
GRADUALLY VEERING MORE INTO THE SE...WITH ADDITIONAL LOW CLOUDS
UPSTREAM IN CT. SO...EXPECT SKIES TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON FOR MOST OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON
VALLEY...MOHAWK VALLEY AND MUCH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. MEANWHILE...SUNSHINE
SHOULD LAST AT LEAST INTO MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN
VT AND THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...BEFORE SOME CLOUDS REACH
THESE REGIONS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING HOURS.

SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS MAY INTERMITTENTLY OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NW CT AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY THROUGH MIDDAY...BEFORE CLOUDS
INCREASE ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.

TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S IN MOST VALLEY
AREAS...WITH MAINLY LOWER/MID 20S EXPECTED ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

MEANWHILE...AN UPPER IMPULSE CURRENTLY IN THE OH VALLEY SHOULD
BRING ADDITIONAL CLOUDINESS TO ALL AREAS THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT. THERE IS VERY LITTLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FEATURE BUT THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT SOME PATCHY SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD OCCUR EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY INTO WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
ENERGY. INDICATING ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS IN THOSE AREAS BUT JUST
MOSTLY CLOUDY IN MOST OTHER AREAS TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE
LOWER TO MID 20S...MID TEENS TO AROUND 20 IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MUCH AGREEMENT AMONG THE MDL SUITE (NAM/GFS/ECMWF) DURING THE
PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THE ENTIRE PACKAGE IS SLOWER THAN 12UTC PACKAGE.
THE GEM WAS NOT AVBL.

SUNDAY SFC HIGH PRESSURE COVERS MUCH OF EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WHILE
AT 500HPA GENERALLY A FAST SORTA ZONAL FLOW IS IN PLACE. HWVR THERE
ARE TWO SHORT WVS OVER THE NE USA...AND INVERSIONS REMAIN IN
PLACE RESULTING IN CONSIDERABLE MID AND LOWER CLOUDS. SUN NT THE
500 HPA TROF DEPARTS THE NE WITH SFC HIGH CENTERED FM QB TO ATLC
SEABOARD. WITH MODEST 500HPA RIDGING BUILDING OVER SEABOARD CLOUDS
SHOULD DCR WITH FAIR CONDS.

MONDAY A SERIES OF 500HPA SHORT WVS CARVE A MAJOR FULL LATITUDE
TROF IN THE GRT PLAINS ALONG WITH SFC CYCLOGEN OVER MN/WI.
MEANWHILE FURTHER EAST 500HPA RIDGING ENSUES ALONG THE E
SEABOARD. THIS 500HPA TROF IS WEAKER THAN PVS RUNS DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD. MEANWHILE SFC HIGH ONLY SLOWLY RETREATS OFFSHORE. AS SUCH
WK SE FLOW SETS UP AND MANY AREAS MAY SE SOME SUN PART OF MONDAY.

BUT BY LATE MON AFTN WK ISENTROPIC LIFTS IS DEVELOPING OVER MUCH OF
THE EAST WITH VEERING FLOW W/HT...CSTL FRONT IS SETTING UP ALONG THE
ATLC COAST...AND CLOUDS WILL INCR AND THICKEN. MON INTO TUES NT
500HPA PATTERN BECOMES GREATLY AMPLIFIED WITH SHARPENING RIDGE ALONG
E COAST...AND FULL LAT TROF IN MISS VLY CUTTING OFF. S-SE FLOW
COVERS MUCH OF THE EAST WITH MILDER AIR STREAMING N...HWVR
CSTL/WMFNT REMAINS S OF RGN...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTS TO INCR.

RESULT WILL BE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND INCRG CHC OF PCPN. THREAT OF
PCPN WILL ONLY SLOWLY INCR TO SLGT CHC MON NT AND CHC TUE. ANY
PCPN MON NT INTO TUE WILL BE SPOTTY AND LT...--SHSN..ZL...--SHRA. BY
MID MRNG TUES IT SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ONLY LIQ PCPN.

THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A SFC WV ALONG THE CSTL FRONT TUES SUG A
HIGHER PROB OF -SHRA MAINLY S PRTNS OF FCA MON NT AND TUE...BUT
AMNTS ARE STILL QUITE LT. TEMPS WILL BE NR NORMALS MON...INCRG TO
10 DEG ABV NORMALS TUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ALL GUID IS POINTING TO A VERY DYNAMIC SYSTEM IMPACTING THE EAST
CHRISTMAS EVE AND DAY...MAKING FOR A VERY BUMPY AND WET RIDE FOR
SANTA.

BY WED MRNG FULL LAT 500HPA TROF IN MISS VLY...AND POWERFUL JET
ROUNDS ITS BASE...DRIVING IT EAST...AND NEGATIVELY TILTING IT. RAPID
CYCLOGEN ENSUES IN OHIO VALLEY...AS LOW DEEPENS AND RACES N INTO
GRTLKS AND CANADA. 500HPA TROF SWINGS EAST AND LLVL JET
INTENSIFIES DRAWING VERY MILD AIR MASS AND RICH ATLC AND GULF
MOISTURE NWRD. SHRA WILL INCR IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DURING THE
DAY WED...AS SYSTEMS CDFNT PUSHES E...TO BUF BY EVNG ALB BY 06UTC
AND OFFSHORE BY CHRISTMAS MRNG. CDFNT MAY BE ACCOMP BY HVY FRONTAL
RAIN BAND AND MAYBE ISOLD TSTM. TEMPS WILL INCR DURING THE DAY
WITH HIGHS REACHING NEAR 50. QPF IN ECMWF ON THE ORDER OF 1.5 TO
3.0 INCHES....AND GFS 0.5 TO 2.0 INCHES.

SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE RAPIDLY CHRISTMAS DAY TWRD HUDSON`S
BAY...WITH STRONG CAA INTO FCA ON VERY STRONG NW-W WINDS. TEMPS
WILL PROBABLY FALL DURING THE DAY. LK EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
DVLP INTO W FCA...AND WITH CUT OFF LIFTING NE...NW FLOW -SHSN OVER
ADRNDKS A GOOD BET.

CHRISTMAS NT THIS SYSTEM RACES N INTO N CANADA AND -SHSN END ACROSS
THE N PRTNS OF RGN. THU NT AND FRI 500HPA RIDGING REASSERTS ITSELF
OVER THE EAST...AS WELL AS AT THE SFC. FRI INTO FRI NT SHOULD
REMAIN FAIR...HWVR ANOTHER STRONG TROF IS MVNG INTO THE GRTLKS FRI
NT...WITH MILDER CONDS AHEAD OF IT...AND POSSIBLE PCPN ARRIVING BY
FRI NT OR SAT.

WHILE THERE ARES SOME TIMING AND PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES BTWN THE GFS
AND ECMWF ON DAY 7 HPC TAKES THE MIDDLE ROAD ON DAY 7. UNTIL DAY
7 ECMWF/GFS IN PRETTY MUCH IN AGREEMENT. WILL POPULATE WITH HPC
FROM MID SHIFT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION
LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BEING DRAWN NORTHWEST FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND WEAK
DYNAMICS FROM THE DISTURBANCE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH....MAY BRING
SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES TO SOME OF THE TAF SITES LATER
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

OVERALL FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD TREND TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THE EXPECTION OF KPSF...WHERE MVFR CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE. VFR LEVEL
CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LOWER INTO THE MVFR RANGE LATER
TONIGHT...AND PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY.

THE CHANCE FOR SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WILL INCREASE
LATER TONIGHT...MAINLY FOR KPSF/KPOU...WITH TIMING OF POSSIBLE
DEVELOPMENT MAINLY AFTER 08Z-10Z/SUN AND LINGERING UNTIL AT LEAST
14Z-16Z/SUNDAY. A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THESE TIMES. IT IS MORE UNCERTAIN WHETHER ANY
LIGHT SNOW WILL REACH KALB AND KGFL. FOR NOW...HAVE INDICATED
A CHANCE AT KALB...BUT RADAR TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED
OVERNIGHT IN CASE THE AREAL EXPANSION OF ANY LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES
REACHES FURTHER N.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE N TO NE AT GENERALLY 5-10 KT THIS
AFTERNOON...TRENDING TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN...SLEET...DZ.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY DEFINITE RA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...RA.
CHRISTMAS DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ANTICIPATED INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY/CHRISTMAS AS A LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
ARE LIKELY...WITH POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING AND SIGNIFICANT
WITHIN BANK RISES OF LARGER STEM RIVERS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...KL/11/NAS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...KL/NAS
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER







000
FXUS61 KALY 201733
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1233 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...WHILE
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION. THESE UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES WILL BRING AREAS OF CLOUDS THROUGH MONDAY...AND
PERHAPS SOME FLURRIES FOR SOUTHEAST AREAS LATE TONIGHT. UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH
A PERIOD OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1215 PM...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF
SOUTHERN VT...THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION AND THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND EXTREME NORTHERN BERKSHIRES. MEANWHILE...LOW
CLOUDS TRAPPED BENEATH A STRONG INVERSION WITHIN THE H925-H850
LAYER REMAIN FOR AREAS TO THE S AND W. WINDS WITHIN THIS LAYER ARE
GRADUALLY VEERING MORE INTO THE SE...WITH ADDITIONAL LOW CLOUDS
UPSTREAM IN CT. SO...EXPECT SKIES TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON FOR MOST OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON
VALLEY...MOHAWK VALLEY AND MUCH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. MEANWHILE...SUNSHINE
SHOULD LAST AT LEAST INTO MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN
VT AND THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...BEFORE SOME CLOUDS REACH
THESE REGIONS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING HOURS.

SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS MAY INTERMITTENTLY OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NW CT AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY THROUGH MIDDAY...BEFORE CLOUDS
INCREASE ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.

TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S IN MOST VALLEY
AREAS...WITH MAINLY LOWER/MID 20S EXPECTED ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

MEANWHILE...AN UPPER IMPULSE CURRENTLY IN THE OH VALLEY SHOULD
BRING ADDITIONAL CLOUDINESS TO ALL AREAS THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT. THERE IS VERY LITTLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FEATURE BUT THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT SOME PATCHY SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD OCCUR EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY INTO WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
ENERGY. INDICATING ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS IN THOSE AREAS BUT JUST
MOSTLY CLOUDY IN MOST OTHER AREAS TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE
LOWER TO MID 20S...MID TEENS TO AROUND 20 IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MUCH AGREEMENT AMONG THE MDL SUITE (NAM/GFS/ECMWF) DURING THE
PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THE ENTIRE PACKAGE IS SLOWER THAN 12UTC PACKAGE.
THE GEM WAS NOT AVBL.

SUNDAY SFC HIGH PRESSURE COVERS MUCH OF EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WHILE
AT 500HPA GENERALLY A FAST SORTA ZONAL FLOW IS IN PLACE. HWVR THERE
ARE TWO SHORT WVS OVER THE NE USA...AND INVERSIONS REMAIN IN
PLACE RESULTING IN CONSIDERABLE MID AND LOWER CLOUDS. SUN NT THE
500 HPA TROF DEPARTS THE NE WITH SFC HIGH CENTERED FM QB TO ATLC
SEABOARD. WITH MODEST 500HPA RIDGING BUILDING OVER SEABOARD CLOUDS
SHOULD DCR WITH FAIR CONDS.

MONDAY A SERIES OF 500HPA SHORT WVS CARVE A MAJOR FULL LATITUDE
TROF IN THE GRT PLAINS ALONG WITH SFC CYCLOGEN OVER MN/WI.
MEANWHILE FURTHER EAST 500HPA RIDGING ENSUES ALONG THE E
SEABOARD. THIS 500HPA TROF IS WEAKER THAN PVS RUNS DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD. MEANWHILE SFC HIGH ONLY SLOWLY RETREATS OFFSHORE. AS SUCH
WK SE FLOW SETS UP AND MANY AREAS MAY SE SOME SUN PART OF MONDAY.

BUT BY LATE MON AFTN WK ISENTROPIC LIFTS IS DEVELOPING OVER MUCH OF
THE EAST WITH VEERING FLOW W/HT...CSTL FRONT IS SETTING UP ALONG THE
ATLC COAST...AND CLOUDS WILL INCR AND THICKEN. MON INTO TUES NT
500HPA PATTERN BECOMES GREATLY AMPLIFIED WITH SHARPENING RIDGE ALONG
E COAST...AND FULL LAT TROF IN MISS VLY CUTTING OFF. S-SE FLOW
COVERS MUCH OF THE EAST WITH MILDER AIR STREAMING N...HWVR
CSTL/WMFNT REMAINS S OF RGN...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTS TO INCR.

RESULT WILL BE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND INCRG CHC OF PCPN. THREAT OF
PCPN WILL ONLY SLOWLY INCR TO SLGT CHC MON NT AND CHC TUE. ANY
PCPN MON NT INTO TUE WILL BE SPOTTY AND LT...--SHSN..ZL...--SHRA. BY
MID MRNG TUES IT SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ONLY LIQ PCPN.

THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A SFC WV ALONG THE CSTL FRONT TUES SUG A
HIGHER PROB OF -SHRA MAINLY S PRTNS OF FCA MON NT AND TUE...BUT
AMNTS ARE STILL QUITE LT. TEMPS WILL BE NR NORMALS MON...INCRG TO
10 DEG ABV NORMALS TUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ALL GUID IS POINTING TO A VERY DYNAMIC SYSTEM IMPACTING THE EAST
CHRISTMAS EVE AND DAY...MAKING FOR A VERY BUMPY AND WET RIDE FOR
SANTA.

BY WED MRNG FULL LAT 500HPA TROF IN MISS VLY...AND POWERFUL JET
ROUNDS ITS BASE...DRIVING IT EAST...AND NEGATIVELY TILTING IT. RAPID
CYCLOGEN ENSUES IN OHIO VALLEY...AS LOW DEEPENS AND RACES N INTO
GRTLKS AND CANADA. 500HPA TROF SWINGS EAST AND LLVL JET
INTENSIFIES DRAWING VERY MILD AIR MASS AND RICH ATLC AND GULF
MOISTURE NWRD. SHRA WILL INCR IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DURING THE
DAY WED...AS SYSTEMS CDFNT PUSHES E...TO BUF BY EVNG ALB BY 06UTC
AND OFFSHORE BY CHRISTMAS MRNG. CDFNT MAY BE ACCOMP BY HVY FRONTAL
RAIN BAND AND MAYBE ISOLD TSTM. TEMPS WILL INCR DURING THE DAY
WITH HIGHS REACHING NEAR 50. QPF IN ECMWF ON THE ORDER OF 1.5 TO
3.0 INCHES....AND GFS 0.5 TO 2.0 INCHES.

SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE RAPIDLY CHRISTMAS DAY TWRD HUDSON`S
BAY...WITH STRONG CAA INTO FCA ON VERY STRONG NW-W WINDS. TEMPS
WILL PROBABLY FALL DURING THE DAY. LK EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
DVLP INTO W FCA...AND WITH CUT OFF LIFTING NE...NW FLOW -SHSN OVER
ADRNDKS A GOOD BET.

CHRISTMAS NT THIS SYSTEM RACES N INTO N CANADA AND -SHSN END ACROSS
THE N PRTNS OF RGN. THU NT AND FRI 500HPA RIDGING REASSERTS ITSELF
OVER THE EAST...AS WELL AS AT THE SFC. FRI INTO FRI NT SHOULD
REMAIN FAIR...HWVR ANOTHER STRONG TROF IS MVNG INTO THE GRTLKS FRI
NT...WITH MILDER CONDS AHEAD OF IT...AND POSSIBLE PCPN ARRIVING BY
FRI NT OR SAT.

WHILE THERE ARES SOME TIMING AND PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES BTWN THE GFS
AND ECMWF ON DAY 7 HPC TAKES THE MIDDLE ROAD ON DAY 7. UNTIL DAY
7 ECMWF/GFS IN PRETTY MUCH IN AGREEMENT. WILL POPULATE WITH HPC
FROM MID SHIFT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION
LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BEING DRAWN NORTHWEST FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND WEAK
DYNAMICS FROM THE DISTURBANCE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH....MAY BRING
SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES TO SOME OF THE TAF SITES LATER
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

OVERALL FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD TREND TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THE EXPECTION OF KPSF...WHERE MVFR CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE. VFR LEVEL
CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LOWER INTO THE MVFR RANGE LATER
TONIGHT...AND PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY.

THE CHANCE FOR SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WILL INCREASE
LATER TONIGHT...MAINLY FOR KPSF/KPOU...WITH TIMING OF POSSIBLE
DEVELOPMENT MAINLY AFTER 08Z-10Z/SUN AND LINGERING UNTIL AT LEAST
14Z-16Z/SUNDAY. A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THESE TIMES. IT IS MORE UNCERTAIN WHETHER ANY
LIGHT SNOW WILL REACH KALB AND KGFL. FOR NOW...HAVE INDICATED
A CHANCE AT KALB...BUT RADAR TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED
OVERNIGHT IN CASE THE AREAL EXPANSION OF ANY LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES
REACHES FURTHER N.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE N TO NE AT GENERALLY 5-10 KT THIS
AFTERNOON...TRENDING TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN...SLEET...DZ.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY DEFINITE RA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...RA.
CHRISTMAS DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ANTICIPATED INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY/CHRISTMAS AS A LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
ARE LIKELY...WITH POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING AND SIGNIFICANT
WITHIN BANK RISES OF LARGER STEM RIVERS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...KL/11/NAS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...KL/NAS
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER







000
FXUS61 KALY 201722
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1222 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...WHILE
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION. THESE UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES WILL BRING AREAS OF CLOUDS THROUGH MONDAY...AND
PERHAPS SOME FLURRIES FOR SOUTHEAST AREAS LATE TONIGHT. UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH
A PERIOD OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1215 PM...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF
SOUTHERN VT...THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION AND THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND EXTREME NORTHERN BERKSHIRES. MEANWHILE...LOW
CLOUDS TRAPPED BENEATH A STRONG INVERSION WITHIN THE H925-H850
LAYER REMAIN FOR AREAS TO THE S AND W. WINDS WITHIN THIS LAYER ARE
GRADUALLY VEERING MORE INTO THE SE...WITH ADDITIONAL LOW CLOUDS
UPSTREAM IN CT. SO...EXPECT SKIES TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON FOR MOST OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON
VALLEY...MOHAWK VALLEY AND MUCH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. MEANWHILE...SUNSHINE
SHOULD LAST AT LEAST INTO MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN
VT AND THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...BEFORE SOME CLOUDS REACH
THESE REGIONS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING HOURS.

SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS MAY INTERMITTENTLY OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NW CT AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY THROUGH MIDDAY...BEFORE CLOUDS
INCREASE ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.

TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S IN MOST VALLEY
AREAS...WITH MAINLY LOWER/MID 20S EXPECTED ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

MEANWHILE...AN UPPER IMPULSE CURRENTLY IN THE OH VALLEY SHOULD
BRING ADDITIONAL CLOUDINESS TO ALL AREAS THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT. THERE IS VERY LITTLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FEATURE BUT THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT SOME PATCHY SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD OCCUR EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY INTO WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
ENERGY. INDICATING ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS IN THOSE AREAS BUT JUST
MOSTLY CLOUDY IN MOST OTHER AREAS TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE
LOWER TO MID 20S...MID TEENS TO AROUND 20 IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MUCH AGREEMENT AMONG THE MDL SUITE (NAM/GFS/ECMWF) DURING THE
PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THE ENTIRE PACKAGE IS SLOWER THAN 12UTC PACKAGE.
THE GEM WAS NOT AVBL.

SUNDAY SFC HIGH PRESSURE COVERS MUCH OF EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WHILE
AT 500HPA GENERALLY A FAST SORTA ZONAL FLOW IS IN PLACE. HWVR THERE
ARE TWO SHORT WVS OVER THE NE USA...AND INVERSIONS REMAIN IN
PLACE RESULTING IN CONSIDERABLE MID AND LOWER CLOUDS. SUN NT THE
500 HPA TROF DEPARTS THE NE WITH SFC HIGH CENTERED FM QB TO ATLC
SEABOARD. WITH MODEST 500HPA RIDGING BUILDING OVER SEABOARD CLOUDS
SHOULD DCR WITH FAIR CONDS.

MONDAY A SERIES OF 500HPA SHORT WVS CARVE A MAJOR FULL LATITUDE
TROF IN THE GRT PLAINS ALONG WITH SFC CYCLOGEN OVER MN/WI.
MEANWHILE FURTHER EAST 500HPA RIDGING ENSUES ALONG THE E
SEABOARD. THIS 500HPA TROF IS WEAKER THAN PVS RUNS DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD. MEANWHILE SFC HIGH ONLY SLOWLY RETREATS OFFSHORE. AS SUCH
WK SE FLOW SETS UP AND MANY AREAS MAY SE SOME SUN PART OF MONDAY.

BUT BY LATE MON AFTN WK ISENTROPIC LIFTS IS DEVELOPING OVER MUCH OF
THE EAST WITH VEERING FLOW W/HT...CSTL FRONT IS SETTING UP ALONG THE
ATLC COAST...AND CLOUDS WILL INCR AND THICKEN. MON INTO TUES NT
500HPA PATTERN BECOMES GREATLY AMPLIFIED WITH SHARPENING RIDGE ALONG
E COAST...AND FULL LAT TROF IN MISS VLY CUTTING OFF. S-SE FLOW
COVERS MUCH OF THE EAST WITH MILDER AIR STREAMING N...HWVR
CSTL/WMFNT REMAINS S OF RGN...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTS TO INCR.

RESULT WILL BE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND INCRG CHC OF PCPN. THREAT OF
PCPN WILL ONLY SLOWLY INCR TO SLGT CHC MON NT AND CHC TUE. ANY
PCPN MON NT INTO TUE WILL BE SPOTTY AND LT...--SHSN..ZL...--SHRA. BY
MID MRNG TUES IT SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ONLY LIQ PCPN.

THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A SFC WV ALONG THE CSTL FRONT TUES SUG A
HIGHER PROB OF -SHRA MAINLY S PRTNS OF FCA MON NT AND TUE...BUT
AMNTS ARE STILL QUITE LT. TEMPS WILL BE NR NORMALS MON...INCRG TO
10 DEG ABV NORMALS TUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ALL GUID IS POINTING TO A VERY DYNAMIC SYSTEM IMPACTING THE EAST
CHRISTMAS EVE AND DAY...MAKING FOR A VERY BUMPY AND WET RIDE FOR
SANTA.

BY WED MRNG FULL LAT 500HPA TROF IN MISS VLY...AND POWERFUL JET
ROUNDS ITS BASE...DRIVING IT EAST...AND NEGATIVELY TILTING IT. RAPID
CYCLOGEN ENSUES IN OHIO VALLEY...AS LOW DEEPENS AND RACES N INTO
GRTLKS AND CANADA. 500HPA TROF SWINGS EAST AND LLVL JET
INTENSIFIES DRAWING VERY MILD AIR MASS AND RICH ATLC AND GULF
MOISTURE NWRD. SHRA WILL INCR IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DURING THE
DAY WED...AS SYSTEMS CDFNT PUSHES E...TO BUF BY EVNG ALB BY 06UTC
AND OFFSHORE BY CHRISTMAS MRNG. CDFNT MAY BE ACCOMP BY HVY FRONTAL
RAIN BAND AND MAYBE ISOLD TSTM. TEMPS WILL INCR DURING THE DAY
WITH HIGHS REACHING NEAR 50. QPF IN ECMWF ON THE ORDER OF 1.5 TO
3.0 INCHES....AND GFS 0.5 TO 2.0 INCHES.

SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE RAPIDLY CHRISTMAS DAY TWRD HUDSON`S
BAY...WITH STRONG CAA INTO FCA ON VERY STRONG NW-W WINDS. TEMPS
WILL PROBABLY FALL DURING THE DAY. LK EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
DVLP INTO W FCA...AND WITH CUT OFF LIFTING NE...NW FLOW -SHSN OVER
ADRNDKS A GOOD BET.

CHRISTMAS NT THIS SYSTEM RACES N INTO N CANADA AND -SHSN END ACROSS
THE N PRTNS OF RGN. THU NT AND FRI 500HPA RIDGING REASSERTS ITSELF
OVER THE EAST...AS WELL AS AT THE SFC. FRI INTO FRI NT SHOULD
REMAIN FAIR...HWVR ANOTHER STRONG TROF IS MVNG INTO THE GRTLKS FRI
NT...WITH MILDER CONDS AHEAD OF IT...AND POSSIBLE PCPN ARRIVING BY
FRI NT OR SAT.

WHILE THERE ARES SOME TIMING AND PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES BTWN THE GFS
AND ECMWF ON DAY 7 HPC TAKES THE MIDDLE ROAD ON DAY 7. UNTIL DAY
7 ECMWF/GFS IN PRETTY MUCH IN AGREEMENT. WILL POPULATE WITH HPC
FROM MID SHIFT.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE IN FROM SE ONTARIO THROUGH
THE DAY.A WEAK UPPER IMPULSE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE CLOUDS ARE EXPANDING AGAIN FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARD
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND EASTERN NY. BASED ON TRENDS IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY...KGFL SHOULD SEE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...WITH OCCASIONAL
PERIODS OF A BROKEN CEILING BETWEEN 2000-3000 FEET THIS MORNING.
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SOLID CLOUDINESS CUTS RIGHT THROUGH THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT AND BERKSHIRES...SO KALB SHOULD HAVE PERIODS OF
BROKEN AND SCATTERED CLOUDS BETWEEN 2000-3000 FEET...WHILE KPSF
AND KPOU SHOULD HAVE BROKEN TO OVERCAST CEILINGS BETWEEN 2000-3000
FEET. BY AFTERNOON...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM AN UPPER SYSTEM
SHOULD ADD A HIGHER LAYER TO THE VARYING COVERAGE OF THE LOWER
CLOUDS. THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT...
AND HOW MUCH OF THE LOWER CLOUDINESS REDEVELOPING IS IN QUESTION...
SO INCLUDING A SCATTERED LAYER BETWEEN 2000-3000 FEET IN CASE THE
LOW CLOUDS DOMINATE AGAIN.

NW TO NE WINDS OF 5-10 KTS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS. EXPECT VERY LIGHT N TO N WINDS OF LESS
THAN 5 KTS TOWARD MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN...BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KT THROUGH THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN...SLEET...DZ.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY DEFINITE RA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...RA.
CHRISTMAS DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ANTICIPATED INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY/CHRISTMAS AS A LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
ARE LIKELY...WITH POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING AND SIGNIFICANT
WITHIN BANK RISES OF LARGER STEM RIVERS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...KL/11/NAS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...NAS
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER







000
FXUS61 KALY 201722
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1222 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...WHILE
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION. THESE UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES WILL BRING AREAS OF CLOUDS THROUGH MONDAY...AND
PERHAPS SOME FLURRIES FOR SOUTHEAST AREAS LATE TONIGHT. UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH
A PERIOD OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1215 PM...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF
SOUTHERN VT...THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION AND THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND EXTREME NORTHERN BERKSHIRES. MEANWHILE...LOW
CLOUDS TRAPPED BENEATH A STRONG INVERSION WITHIN THE H925-H850
LAYER REMAIN FOR AREAS TO THE S AND W. WINDS WITHIN THIS LAYER ARE
GRADUALLY VEERING MORE INTO THE SE...WITH ADDITIONAL LOW CLOUDS
UPSTREAM IN CT. SO...EXPECT SKIES TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON FOR MOST OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON
VALLEY...MOHAWK VALLEY AND MUCH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. MEANWHILE...SUNSHINE
SHOULD LAST AT LEAST INTO MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN
VT AND THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...BEFORE SOME CLOUDS REACH
THESE REGIONS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING HOURS.

SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS MAY INTERMITTENTLY OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NW CT AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY THROUGH MIDDAY...BEFORE CLOUDS
INCREASE ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.

TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S IN MOST VALLEY
AREAS...WITH MAINLY LOWER/MID 20S EXPECTED ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

MEANWHILE...AN UPPER IMPULSE CURRENTLY IN THE OH VALLEY SHOULD
BRING ADDITIONAL CLOUDINESS TO ALL AREAS THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT. THERE IS VERY LITTLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FEATURE BUT THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT SOME PATCHY SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD OCCUR EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY INTO WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
ENERGY. INDICATING ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS IN THOSE AREAS BUT JUST
MOSTLY CLOUDY IN MOST OTHER AREAS TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE
LOWER TO MID 20S...MID TEENS TO AROUND 20 IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MUCH AGREEMENT AMONG THE MDL SUITE (NAM/GFS/ECMWF) DURING THE
PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THE ENTIRE PACKAGE IS SLOWER THAN 12UTC PACKAGE.
THE GEM WAS NOT AVBL.

SUNDAY SFC HIGH PRESSURE COVERS MUCH OF EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WHILE
AT 500HPA GENERALLY A FAST SORTA ZONAL FLOW IS IN PLACE. HWVR THERE
ARE TWO SHORT WVS OVER THE NE USA...AND INVERSIONS REMAIN IN
PLACE RESULTING IN CONSIDERABLE MID AND LOWER CLOUDS. SUN NT THE
500 HPA TROF DEPARTS THE NE WITH SFC HIGH CENTERED FM QB TO ATLC
SEABOARD. WITH MODEST 500HPA RIDGING BUILDING OVER SEABOARD CLOUDS
SHOULD DCR WITH FAIR CONDS.

MONDAY A SERIES OF 500HPA SHORT WVS CARVE A MAJOR FULL LATITUDE
TROF IN THE GRT PLAINS ALONG WITH SFC CYCLOGEN OVER MN/WI.
MEANWHILE FURTHER EAST 500HPA RIDGING ENSUES ALONG THE E
SEABOARD. THIS 500HPA TROF IS WEAKER THAN PVS RUNS DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD. MEANWHILE SFC HIGH ONLY SLOWLY RETREATS OFFSHORE. AS SUCH
WK SE FLOW SETS UP AND MANY AREAS MAY SE SOME SUN PART OF MONDAY.

BUT BY LATE MON AFTN WK ISENTROPIC LIFTS IS DEVELOPING OVER MUCH OF
THE EAST WITH VEERING FLOW W/HT...CSTL FRONT IS SETTING UP ALONG THE
ATLC COAST...AND CLOUDS WILL INCR AND THICKEN. MON INTO TUES NT
500HPA PATTERN BECOMES GREATLY AMPLIFIED WITH SHARPENING RIDGE ALONG
E COAST...AND FULL LAT TROF IN MISS VLY CUTTING OFF. S-SE FLOW
COVERS MUCH OF THE EAST WITH MILDER AIR STREAMING N...HWVR
CSTL/WMFNT REMAINS S OF RGN...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTS TO INCR.

RESULT WILL BE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND INCRG CHC OF PCPN. THREAT OF
PCPN WILL ONLY SLOWLY INCR TO SLGT CHC MON NT AND CHC TUE. ANY
PCPN MON NT INTO TUE WILL BE SPOTTY AND LT...--SHSN..ZL...--SHRA. BY
MID MRNG TUES IT SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ONLY LIQ PCPN.

THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A SFC WV ALONG THE CSTL FRONT TUES SUG A
HIGHER PROB OF -SHRA MAINLY S PRTNS OF FCA MON NT AND TUE...BUT
AMNTS ARE STILL QUITE LT. TEMPS WILL BE NR NORMALS MON...INCRG TO
10 DEG ABV NORMALS TUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ALL GUID IS POINTING TO A VERY DYNAMIC SYSTEM IMPACTING THE EAST
CHRISTMAS EVE AND DAY...MAKING FOR A VERY BUMPY AND WET RIDE FOR
SANTA.

BY WED MRNG FULL LAT 500HPA TROF IN MISS VLY...AND POWERFUL JET
ROUNDS ITS BASE...DRIVING IT EAST...AND NEGATIVELY TILTING IT. RAPID
CYCLOGEN ENSUES IN OHIO VALLEY...AS LOW DEEPENS AND RACES N INTO
GRTLKS AND CANADA. 500HPA TROF SWINGS EAST AND LLVL JET
INTENSIFIES DRAWING VERY MILD AIR MASS AND RICH ATLC AND GULF
MOISTURE NWRD. SHRA WILL INCR IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DURING THE
DAY WED...AS SYSTEMS CDFNT PUSHES E...TO BUF BY EVNG ALB BY 06UTC
AND OFFSHORE BY CHRISTMAS MRNG. CDFNT MAY BE ACCOMP BY HVY FRONTAL
RAIN BAND AND MAYBE ISOLD TSTM. TEMPS WILL INCR DURING THE DAY
WITH HIGHS REACHING NEAR 50. QPF IN ECMWF ON THE ORDER OF 1.5 TO
3.0 INCHES....AND GFS 0.5 TO 2.0 INCHES.

SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE RAPIDLY CHRISTMAS DAY TWRD HUDSON`S
BAY...WITH STRONG CAA INTO FCA ON VERY STRONG NW-W WINDS. TEMPS
WILL PROBABLY FALL DURING THE DAY. LK EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
DVLP INTO W FCA...AND WITH CUT OFF LIFTING NE...NW FLOW -SHSN OVER
ADRNDKS A GOOD BET.

CHRISTMAS NT THIS SYSTEM RACES N INTO N CANADA AND -SHSN END ACROSS
THE N PRTNS OF RGN. THU NT AND FRI 500HPA RIDGING REASSERTS ITSELF
OVER THE EAST...AS WELL AS AT THE SFC. FRI INTO FRI NT SHOULD
REMAIN FAIR...HWVR ANOTHER STRONG TROF IS MVNG INTO THE GRTLKS FRI
NT...WITH MILDER CONDS AHEAD OF IT...AND POSSIBLE PCPN ARRIVING BY
FRI NT OR SAT.

WHILE THERE ARES SOME TIMING AND PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES BTWN THE GFS
AND ECMWF ON DAY 7 HPC TAKES THE MIDDLE ROAD ON DAY 7. UNTIL DAY
7 ECMWF/GFS IN PRETTY MUCH IN AGREEMENT. WILL POPULATE WITH HPC
FROM MID SHIFT.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE IN FROM SE ONTARIO THROUGH
THE DAY.A WEAK UPPER IMPULSE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE CLOUDS ARE EXPANDING AGAIN FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARD
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND EASTERN NY. BASED ON TRENDS IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY...KGFL SHOULD SEE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...WITH OCCASIONAL
PERIODS OF A BROKEN CEILING BETWEEN 2000-3000 FEET THIS MORNING.
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SOLID CLOUDINESS CUTS RIGHT THROUGH THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT AND BERKSHIRES...SO KALB SHOULD HAVE PERIODS OF
BROKEN AND SCATTERED CLOUDS BETWEEN 2000-3000 FEET...WHILE KPSF
AND KPOU SHOULD HAVE BROKEN TO OVERCAST CEILINGS BETWEEN 2000-3000
FEET. BY AFTERNOON...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM AN UPPER SYSTEM
SHOULD ADD A HIGHER LAYER TO THE VARYING COVERAGE OF THE LOWER
CLOUDS. THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT...
AND HOW MUCH OF THE LOWER CLOUDINESS REDEVELOPING IS IN QUESTION...
SO INCLUDING A SCATTERED LAYER BETWEEN 2000-3000 FEET IN CASE THE
LOW CLOUDS DOMINATE AGAIN.

NW TO NE WINDS OF 5-10 KTS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS. EXPECT VERY LIGHT N TO N WINDS OF LESS
THAN 5 KTS TOWARD MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN...BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KT THROUGH THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN...SLEET...DZ.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY DEFINITE RA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...RA.
CHRISTMAS DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ANTICIPATED INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY/CHRISTMAS AS A LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
ARE LIKELY...WITH POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING AND SIGNIFICANT
WITHIN BANK RISES OF LARGER STEM RIVERS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...KL/11/NAS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...NAS
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER








000
FXUS61 KOKX 201509
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1009 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WEAKENS AS IT APPROACHES MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM THEN AFFECTS THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH ITS EFFECTS STILL FELT
ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS. THERE IS
A BREAK IN THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS SW CT WHICH IS FILLING BACK IN.

HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH SHIFTS EAST TOWARD MAINE. THE MAIN
FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AS
MOISTURE IS BEING TRAPPED UNDER A STRONG INVERSION NEAR
900MB. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT MOISTURE INCREASES
BELOW THIS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL GO WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY FORECAST. QPF OUTPUT ALSO INDICATES VERY LIGHT PCPN CHANCES
OVER THE FORKS REGION/SE CT TOWARDS SUNSET...BUT WILL MAINTAIN A
DRY FORECAST FOR THE DAYTIME. MAV/NAM MOS BLEND LOOKED GOOD FOR
HIGH TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WE WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF PCPN FOR SOME AREAS TONIGHT...BUT VERY
LIGHT. DURING THE EVENING...WEAK LIFT...MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN
AREAS...WILL BE SUPPLIED BY A SHORTWAVE IN THE LOW-MID LEVELS. THIS
COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW OVER LONG ISLAND AND SE CT. THEN FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...CHANCES OF FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SPREAD WEST WITH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION AND INCREASING PVA FROM THE WEST.
THINKING IS THAT PCPN TYPE WOULD FAVOR FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW OVER
DRIZZLE IN SPITE OF MOISTURE LACKING IN THE MID LEVELS. LOOKS LIKE
COLDEST TEMPS IN THE SATURATED LAYER BENEATH THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION
WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ICE CRYSTALS. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS
WOULD ALSO TEND TO FAVOR FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW.

MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH
FLURRIES/DRIZZLE POSSIBLE...THEN NVA BEHIND IT AND DEEP-LAYERED
RIDGING LIKELY PREVENTS PCPN IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS NEAR
NORMAL. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST ON MONDAY AND BEGINS TO HEAD NORTH. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST SHIFTS FARTHER EAST. THIS WILL LOW LEVEL
WINDS HERE VEER TO THE EAST AND AID LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION. A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH FROM THE CENTER OF THE LOW WILL SERVE
AS A FOCUS FOR WEAK LIFT AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. LOW CHANCES OF
LIGHT RAIN RESULT...BUT BETTER OVERALL CHANCES OCCUR DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THE LOW CENTER WEAKENS AS IT HEADS NORTH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE LOW STILL STRENGTHENS...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE STILL INCREASES ON AN ENE FLOW...AND THE SURFACE
TROUGH WILL STILL BE IN THE VICINITY. POPS FOR TUESDAY MIGHT BE A
LITTLE TOO HIGH...BUT THEY ARE STILL REASONABLE...AND CURRENTLY DO
NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO LOWER POPS FROM THE CURRENT LOW-END
LIKELY. BETTER OVERALL CHANCES OF RAIN OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON. PCPN
TYPE IS RAIN...EXCEPT A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW LATE MON NIGHT AND TUES
MORNING FOR THE NORTHERN FRINGE ZONES. MIGHT NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING STARTING WITH TUESDAY
MORNING`S HIGH TIDE CYCLE AS A PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS.

A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM THEN AFFECTS US CHRISTMAS EVE AND DAY.
MODELS SHOW A STRONG PRIMARY LOW CENTER MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE MOVING INTO ONTARIO ON THURSDAY. A
WEAKER SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE CENTER OR TRIPLE POINT LOW FORMS IN
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BEFORE PASSING OVER OR JUST NORTH OF US
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE NIGHT. CATEGORICAL POPS FOR WEDS/WEDS EVENING BEFORE THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH...THEN JUST LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...MAINLY EAST OF THE CITY. RAINFALL EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY
ON THE MODERATE SIDE WITH MINOR URBAN FLOODING POSSIBLE. FOR
THURSDAY...A STRONG FETCH OFF OF LAKE ERIE COULD BRING A RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWER TO THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE CWA THURSDAY MORNING.

BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR WEDS THRU THURS. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET PUSHES
THROUGH THE EASTERN ZONES WEDS AFTN/EVE...BUT STRONG GUSTS WILL
PROBABLY HAVE A TOUGH TIME MIXING DOWN THROUGH AN INVERSION.
STRONGER GUSTS MAY BE REALIZED DURING THURSDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
COURTESY OF BETTER MIXING. MARGINAL ADVISORY CRITERIA GUSTS COULD BE
POSSIBLE WEDS AFTN THRU THURS. TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE
ABOVE AVERAGE. HIGHS ON WEDS IN THE 50S...AND WITH A MODERATE WSW
FLOW AND PARTIAL SUNSHINE ON THURSDAY...HIGH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 40S
EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND CLOSER TO
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FOR THIS WEEKEND AND DEPARTS
EARLY IN THE NEW WEEK.

CIGS WILL VARY BETWEEN SCT-BKN 2500-3500 FT AS MOISTURE REMAINS
TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION. BEST CHANCES FOR VFR CIGS WILL OCCUR
THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASING CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD BKN-OVC MVFR
CIGS 2500-3000 FT TONIGHT.

N TO NE WINDS AT 6-8 KT TODAY WILL BECOME LGT/VRB LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH TONIGHT.

LIGHT SNOW AND/OR FLURRIES POSSIBLE FOR KGON/KISP AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SUNDAY...MVFR CIGS...WITH LIGHT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE FOR
CITY/COASTAL TERMINALS. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS.
.MON...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN E-SE FLOW. CHC OF RAIN.
.MON NIGHT-TUE...IFR LIKELY AT TIMES IN RAIN...CIGS AND VSBYS. E-SE
WINDS 10-20 KT.
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...HIGH IMPACT EVENT POSSIBLE...IFR LIKELY WITH
HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY SE WINDS 25KT+ SHIFTING TO SW LATE WED.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE WATERS...CAN EXPECT NORTH WINDS 10
KT OR LESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH SEAS GENERALLY 1-2 FT ON
THE OCEAN OR 1 FT OR LESS ON ALL OTHER WATERS.

EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ON MONDAY AS LOW PRES PASSES SOUTH OF THE
WATERS EARLY IN THE NEW WEEK. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDS DEVELOP ON
TUESDAY AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS. ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC AREA AND TRACKS NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THAT LOW RAPIDLY DEEPENS OVER CANADA ON THURSDAY...
ALLOWING THE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN OVER THE WATERS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND THEN GALES ARE
LIKELY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO IMPACTS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AROUND A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE IS POSSIBLE MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AS LOW PRES PASSES SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND.
NO HYDROLOGICAL IMPACTS EXPECTED.

RAIN ON WED/WED NIGHT MAY AVERAGE 1-2 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION.
MINOR URBAN FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JC
NEAR TERM...JC/DW
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...MPS
HYDROLOGY...JC







000
FXUS61 KOKX 201509
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1009 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WEAKENS AS IT APPROACHES MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM THEN AFFECTS THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH ITS EFFECTS STILL FELT
ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS. THERE IS
A BREAK IN THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS SW CT WHICH IS FILLING BACK IN.

HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH SHIFTS EAST TOWARD MAINE. THE MAIN
FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AS
MOISTURE IS BEING TRAPPED UNDER A STRONG INVERSION NEAR
900MB. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT MOISTURE INCREASES
BELOW THIS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL GO WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY FORECAST. QPF OUTPUT ALSO INDICATES VERY LIGHT PCPN CHANCES
OVER THE FORKS REGION/SE CT TOWARDS SUNSET...BUT WILL MAINTAIN A
DRY FORECAST FOR THE DAYTIME. MAV/NAM MOS BLEND LOOKED GOOD FOR
HIGH TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WE WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF PCPN FOR SOME AREAS TONIGHT...BUT VERY
LIGHT. DURING THE EVENING...WEAK LIFT...MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN
AREAS...WILL BE SUPPLIED BY A SHORTWAVE IN THE LOW-MID LEVELS. THIS
COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW OVER LONG ISLAND AND SE CT. THEN FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...CHANCES OF FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SPREAD WEST WITH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION AND INCREASING PVA FROM THE WEST.
THINKING IS THAT PCPN TYPE WOULD FAVOR FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW OVER
DRIZZLE IN SPITE OF MOISTURE LACKING IN THE MID LEVELS. LOOKS LIKE
COLDEST TEMPS IN THE SATURATED LAYER BENEATH THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION
WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ICE CRYSTALS. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS
WOULD ALSO TEND TO FAVOR FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW.

MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH
FLURRIES/DRIZZLE POSSIBLE...THEN NVA BEHIND IT AND DEEP-LAYERED
RIDGING LIKELY PREVENTS PCPN IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS NEAR
NORMAL. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST ON MONDAY AND BEGINS TO HEAD NORTH. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST SHIFTS FARTHER EAST. THIS WILL LOW LEVEL
WINDS HERE VEER TO THE EAST AND AID LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION. A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH FROM THE CENTER OF THE LOW WILL SERVE
AS A FOCUS FOR WEAK LIFT AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. LOW CHANCES OF
LIGHT RAIN RESULT...BUT BETTER OVERALL CHANCES OCCUR DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THE LOW CENTER WEAKENS AS IT HEADS NORTH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE LOW STILL STRENGTHENS...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE STILL INCREASES ON AN ENE FLOW...AND THE SURFACE
TROUGH WILL STILL BE IN THE VICINITY. POPS FOR TUESDAY MIGHT BE A
LITTLE TOO HIGH...BUT THEY ARE STILL REASONABLE...AND CURRENTLY DO
NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO LOWER POPS FROM THE CURRENT LOW-END
LIKELY. BETTER OVERALL CHANCES OF RAIN OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON. PCPN
TYPE IS RAIN...EXCEPT A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW LATE MON NIGHT AND TUES
MORNING FOR THE NORTHERN FRINGE ZONES. MIGHT NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING STARTING WITH TUESDAY
MORNING`S HIGH TIDE CYCLE AS A PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS.

A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM THEN AFFECTS US CHRISTMAS EVE AND DAY.
MODELS SHOW A STRONG PRIMARY LOW CENTER MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE MOVING INTO ONTARIO ON THURSDAY. A
WEAKER SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE CENTER OR TRIPLE POINT LOW FORMS IN
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BEFORE PASSING OVER OR JUST NORTH OF US
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE NIGHT. CATEGORICAL POPS FOR WEDS/WEDS EVENING BEFORE THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH...THEN JUST LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...MAINLY EAST OF THE CITY. RAINFALL EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY
ON THE MODERATE SIDE WITH MINOR URBAN FLOODING POSSIBLE. FOR
THURSDAY...A STRONG FETCH OFF OF LAKE ERIE COULD BRING A RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWER TO THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE CWA THURSDAY MORNING.

BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR WEDS THRU THURS. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET PUSHES
THROUGH THE EASTERN ZONES WEDS AFTN/EVE...BUT STRONG GUSTS WILL
PROBABLY HAVE A TOUGH TIME MIXING DOWN THROUGH AN INVERSION.
STRONGER GUSTS MAY BE REALIZED DURING THURSDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
COURTESY OF BETTER MIXING. MARGINAL ADVISORY CRITERIA GUSTS COULD BE
POSSIBLE WEDS AFTN THRU THURS. TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE
ABOVE AVERAGE. HIGHS ON WEDS IN THE 50S...AND WITH A MODERATE WSW
FLOW AND PARTIAL SUNSHINE ON THURSDAY...HIGH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 40S
EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND CLOSER TO
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FOR THIS WEEKEND AND DEPARTS
EARLY IN THE NEW WEEK.

CIGS WILL VARY BETWEEN SCT-BKN 2500-3500 FT AS MOISTURE REMAINS
TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION. BEST CHANCES FOR VFR CIGS WILL OCCUR
THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASING CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD BKN-OVC MVFR
CIGS 2500-3000 FT TONIGHT.

N TO NE WINDS AT 6-8 KT TODAY WILL BECOME LGT/VRB LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH TONIGHT.

LIGHT SNOW AND/OR FLURRIES POSSIBLE FOR KGON/KISP AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SUNDAY...MVFR CIGS...WITH LIGHT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE FOR
CITY/COASTAL TERMINALS. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS.
.MON...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN E-SE FLOW. CHC OF RAIN.
.MON NIGHT-TUE...IFR LIKELY AT TIMES IN RAIN...CIGS AND VSBYS. E-SE
WINDS 10-20 KT.
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...HIGH IMPACT EVENT POSSIBLE...IFR LIKELY WITH
HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY SE WINDS 25KT+ SHIFTING TO SW LATE WED.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE WATERS...CAN EXPECT NORTH WINDS 10
KT OR LESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH SEAS GENERALLY 1-2 FT ON
THE OCEAN OR 1 FT OR LESS ON ALL OTHER WATERS.

EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ON MONDAY AS LOW PRES PASSES SOUTH OF THE
WATERS EARLY IN THE NEW WEEK. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDS DEVELOP ON
TUESDAY AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS. ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC AREA AND TRACKS NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THAT LOW RAPIDLY DEEPENS OVER CANADA ON THURSDAY...
ALLOWING THE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN OVER THE WATERS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND THEN GALES ARE
LIKELY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO IMPACTS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AROUND A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE IS POSSIBLE MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AS LOW PRES PASSES SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND.
NO HYDROLOGICAL IMPACTS EXPECTED.

RAIN ON WED/WED NIGHT MAY AVERAGE 1-2 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION.
MINOR URBAN FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JC
NEAR TERM...JC/DW
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...MPS
HYDROLOGY...JC






000
FXUS61 KBOX 201458
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
958 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE REGION
FROM EAST TO WEST LATER TODAY INTO SUN. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL
PASS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND BRINGING ANOTHER PERIOD OF PRECIP MON
NIGHT AND TUE. A MUCH STRONGER STORM PASSING WEST OF NEW ENGLAND
WILL BRING HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS AND COASTAL FLOODING
CONCERNS TO THE REGION WED INTO WED EVENING. DRY BUT VERY WINDY
CONDITIONS FOLLOW FOR CHRISTMAS DAY INTO FRI.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL NOON TODAY/...
10 AM UPDATE...MADE MINOR UPDATES MAINLY TO THE WINDS AND POPS.
UPDATED WINDS USING THE RAP FOR ITS HIGHER DETAIL WITH THE COASTAL
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW SHOWERS HAVE MOVED ASHORE IN PLYMOUTH
COUNTY AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE CAPE AND THE EASTERN END OF CAPE
ANN. EXPECT THESE TO CONTINUE OFF AND ON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE MORNING.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN INTERESTING PATTERN. LOW CLOUDS MOVING
WESTWARD OFF THE OCEAN HAVE CREPT IN ALONG THE EAST COAST. THEN
ANOTHER AREA OF LOW CLOUDS HAVE MOVED NORTHWARD TOO ABOUT THE MASS
PIKE. NORTHWESTERN MASS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY THROUGH THE
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON WHILE CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MOVE
WESTWARD ACROSS EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /NOON TODAY THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

INTERESTING MESOSCALE SETUP AS AN INVERTED TROUGH COMBINES WITH SOME
OCEAN ENHANCEMENT.  APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL ALLOW FOR
EASTERLY FLOW JUST OFF THE GROUND.  THIS COMBINED WITH NORTHEAST
SURFACE WINDS WILL ALLOW LOW LEVEL OF THE ATMOSPHERE TO MOISTEN.
SOUNDINGS ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND BECOME SATURATED ALL THE WAY UP
TO THE -9C LAYER JUST ABOVE 850 MB.  THIS IS FAVORABLE FOR SOME
DECENT SNOW GROWTH...ITS JUST LOWER IN THE ATMOSPHERE THAN WE
TYPICALLY SEE WITH MORE SYNOPTIC SNOW EVENTS.  WHILE THIS IS NOT A
TRUE OCEAN EFFECT EVENT...DELTA T VALUES FROM THE MIXED LAYER TO THE
OCEAN ARE AROUND 15C.  THEREFORE...EXPECT SOME OCEAN ENHANCEMENT.

TIMING:

WHILE FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST NEW
ENGLAND THIS MORNING.  THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL  PRECIPITATION SHOULD
OVERSPREAD PLYMOUTH COUNTY AS WELL AS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS THIS
AFTERNOON.  GIVEN EASTERLY FLOW JUST OFF THE GROUND...EXPECT SNOW
SHOWERS TO OVERSPREAD MOST OF EASTERN NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING AS
LOW LEVELS MOISTEN.  IN FACT...SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS AFFECT EVEN OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES.

PTYPE:

MAINLY SNOW FOR ALL BUT PORTIONS OF COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY AND ONTO
THE CAPE/ISLANDS.  A SUBTLE COASTAL FRONT LOOKS TO SETUP ACROSS
SOUTHEAST COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY.  PTYPE WILL BE SNOW TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THIS REGION...BUT ENOUGH MILD AIR SHOULD COME IN OFF
THE OCEAN FOR A CHANGE TO RAIN SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THIS REGION.
NOT EXPECTING THE POSITION OF THIS SUBTLE BOUNDARY TO CHANGE MUCH
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

SNOW ACCUMULATIONS:

WE ARE GENERALLY LOOKING AT A COATING TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION.  THE MAIN FOCUS FOR 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MA...AWAY FROM THE SOUTHEAST PLYMOUTH COUNTY
COAST.  ALSO...THE WORCESTER HILLS INTO NORTHWEST RHODE ISLAND MIGHT
BE ANOTHER AREA AS A RESULT OF THE SUBTLE UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE
WIND.  YOU CAN ACTUALLY SEE THAT IN SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION
MODEL GUIDANCE.

THERE IS ONE AREA TO WATCH IN PARTICULAR...FROM NORTHWEST PLYMOUTH
COUNTY AND INTO NORFOLK COUNTY BASED ON MESOSCALE MODELS AND PATTERN
RECOGNITION.  WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE VERY LOCALIZED 3 TO 4
INCH SNOW AMOUNTS...GIVEN SOME OCEAN ENHANCEMENT AND A LITTLE FOCUS
ON THE COASTAL FRONT.  WILL TRY TO HIGHLIGHT THIS AREA IN OUR
SNOWFALL AND PROBABILISTIC  GRAPHICS.

SUNDAY...

SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE DURING THE MORNING WITH MOIST
EASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS. AGAIN...PTYPE WILL BE SNOW EXCEPT
ACROSS SOUTHEAST PLYMOUTH COUNTY/CAPE AND ISLANDS WHERE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL PROBABLY BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN SHOWERS.  WHILE SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON...EXPECT A
DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL LIFT
WEAKENS.  IT WILL REMAIN CLOUDY THOUGH WITH TEMPS IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* INVERTED TROUGH WILL BRING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO THE MASS EAST
  COASTLINE MONDAY INTO TUES MORNING.
* WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MON NIGHT/TUESDAY COULD BRING WINTRY
  MIX TO INTERIOR
* ANOMALOUS SYSTEM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING HEAVY
  RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS AROUND CHRISTMAS
  EVE

OVERVIEW...

OVERALL 00Z GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT SYNOPTICALLY WITH ISSUES ON
TIMING AND SMALLER SCALE FEATURES. IT REMAINS EVIDENT THAT AN
AMPLIFIED MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND PCPN FOCUSING LEAD SURFACE
LOW/FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL STEADILY PROGRESS TO THE EAST-CENTRAL U.S.
TUE AS EMBEDDED IMPULSES DIG TO THE LEE OF AN AMPLIFIED ERN
PACIFIC/WEST COAST RIDGE ALOFT. THE SUPPORTING AND INCREASINGLY
NEGATIVE-TILT TROUGH ALOFT WORKS OVER THE ERN US AND OUT THROUGH THE
NERN STATES INTO DAYS 4/5 WED/THU.  MODELS/ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON THIS AMPLIFIED PATTERN AND THE MOST RECENT
GEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOW GOOD CORRELATION TO NEXT THURSDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL BEGIN TO
EXIT BY MONDAY. AT THE SURFACE APPEARS ANOTHER INVERTED
TROUGH/ONSHORE FLOW WILL YIELD TO PRECIP ALONG THE MASS COASTLINE ON
MONDAY. ASIDE FROM THIS QUICK MESOSCALE EVENT THE MAIN FOCUS IS ON
THE LONGWAVE DIGGING TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WHICH WILL PUSH A
FEW SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE FLOW. FIRST ONE DEVELOPS A WEAK WAVE
MOVING TOWARDS THE REGION LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE LOCATION/STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM BUT
APPEARS THAT THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF A SNOW/WINTRY MIX IN THE
INTERIOR. AS THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS AN ANOMALOUS LOW OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WILL DEVELOP A SECONDARY LOW JUST WEST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
     PER ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. STILL A SOME SPREAD BUT IF THIS DOUBLE LOW
DOES DEVELOP THEN THE RAIN AND WIND ASPECT OF THE SYSTEM
INCREASES...DETAILS BELOW. STILL NEED TO WORK OUT MINOR DETAILS WITH
THIS PARTICULAR SYSTEM BUT WITH 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS AWAY AND
GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THIS SYSTEM WILL IMPACT
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

DETAILS...

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFFSHORE AS
DIGGING TROUGH BEGINS TO SET-UP OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. APPEARS
ANOTHER MESO-SCALE INVERTED TROUGH WILL SET UP ON MONDAY AND LAST
INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE MASS EAST COASTLINE THANKS TO ONSHORE
EASTERLY FLOW. APPEARS THE COLUMN WILL SATURATE PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
AND SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW QPF MAKING IT
ONSHORE DURING THIS TIME FRAME. HOWEVER THE EC IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER
AND KEEP THE BULK OF THE PRECIP JUST OFFSHORE. ADD A CHANCE OF POPS
DUE TO THE NAM/GFS MODEL CONTINUITY.

BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY A SOUTHERN BRANCH STORM SYSTEM
FORMS ALONG THE SE COAST AND TAKES A TRACK OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST. THIS SYSTEM GETS CAUGHT UP WITH THE OVERALL LARGE SCALE
AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER AIR PATTERN. THERE IS DECENT WARM
ADVECTION WITH COLD AIR DAMMING ACROSS THE INTERIOR. BIGGEST
QUESTION WILL BE IS THERE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR PRECIP DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. IF PRECIP OVERRUNS THEN COULD SEE FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE
ACROSS THE INTERIOR LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. DURING THE DAY
ON TUESDAY...GOOD AMOUNT OF WARM AIR WILL PUSH SURFACE TEMPS ABOVE
FREEZING ALLOWING FOR ANY PRECIP TO BE MORE OF THE LIQUID VARIETY
AHEAD OF THE CHRISTMAS EVE STORM. HOWEVER GUIDANCE IS ALWAYS TOO
FAST IN SCOURING TEMPS OUT ESP ACROSS THE CT VALLEY SO WE WILL NEED
TO MONITOR THIS CLOSELY...ESP DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND THE HIGH IN
EASTERN CANADA.

WE COULD ALSO SEE SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS ON TUESDAY. SEE
BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SYSTEM LOW CONFIDENCE
ON DETAILS.

STRONG ANOMALOUS SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE GREAT
LAKES...DEVELOPING A POTENTIAL SECONDARY SURFACE LOW JUST WEST OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. STILL A LOT OF DETAILS TO WORK OUT AS THIS
SYSTEM IS STILL 5 DAYS AWAY...HOWEVER ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW
STRONG AGREEMENT SO HAVE INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT A POTENT STORM
WILL OCCUR. LATEST 00Z GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT MOST PRECIP WILL BE
LIQUID WITH A DEEP SUBTROPICAL CONNECTION BACK ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO...PW ANOMALIES FORECAST TO RISE BETWEEN +3 TO +4. CURRENT
PWATS ARE PROGGED ABOVE 1.6 INCHES SO HAVE CONTINUED THE CATEGORICAL
POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE...IN FACT WE MAY BE
CLOSE AT BREAKING RECORD HIGH TEMPS IF TEMPS WARM TO 60F OR ABOVE ON
CHRISTMAS EVE.  AS THE SYSTEM WRAPS UP INTO CANADA...COLD AIR
ADVECTION SHOULD CIRCULATE AROUND AND BEGIN A TRANSITION FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST IN TURNING P-TYPE TO SNOW. HOWEVER LATEST
GUIDANCE DOES SHOW A QUICK MOVING DRY SLOT SO SNOWFALL WILL STRUGGLE
DUE TO LACK OF MOISTURE.

THIS SYSTEM IS QUITE POTENT SO WE WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL
HAZARDS. CURRENTLY THINK THAT WE COULD POSSIBLE URBAN FLOODING
ISSUES AS MODELS PROGGED WELL OVER 1.5 INCHES OF QPF. LATEST EC EVEN
SHOWS 2.5 INCHES OF QPF IS POSSIBLE. THE GEFS SHOW A MOISTURE FLUX
AT 850 MB BEING 4 TO 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS AWAY...AND WITH THE
TROPICAL CONNECTION AND STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW COULD SEE HIGHER
AMOUNTS DUE TO TOPOGRAPHY ENHANCEMENTS. RAIN FALL RECORDS MAY FALL
IF EVERYTHING FALLS INTO PLACE.

ALSO BELIEVE THAT WE MAY SEE SOME WIND ISSUES WITH THIS SYSTEM.
GUIDANCE RIGHT NOW IS SHOWING A 45 TO 55 KT JET AT 925 MB...HOWEVER
IT WILL BE HARD TO BREAK THE INVERSION WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW.
RIGHT NOW BELIEVE THAT WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED BUT IF THIS
SYSTEM STRENGTHEN EVEN MORE SO A STRONGER JET IS POSSIBLE.

CONTINUED THE MENTIONED OF ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE FORECAST PER PREV
FORECASTER SUGGESTION. BELIEVE IT COULD BE POSSIBLE AS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR...WITH THE ANOMALOUS JET AND
SHOWALTERS CLOSE TO ZERO.

FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

ONCE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO SOUTHERN CANADA...EXPECT A RATHER
FAST UPPER W FLOW IN PLACE. MAY SEE LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWERS BUT TEMPS
WILL FALL BACK CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

700 AM UPDATE...

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE INTERIOR
THIS AFTERNOON.  SCATTERED PRECIPITATION WILL OVERSPREAD
SOUTHEAST MA/CAPE/ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON.  PTYPE MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS
NORTHWEST OF THE SOUTHEAST PLYMOUTH COUNTY COAST AND RAIN SHOWERS
SOUTHEAST OF THAT REGION. LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE JUST
INLAND FROM THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST...WHERE PTYPE IS SNOW.

TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MVFR CONDITIONS DOMINATE
IN LOWER CLOUDS AND SCATTERED PRECIPITATION.  LOCALIZED IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN SNOW SHOWERS.
PRECIPITATION AFFECTS MAINLY EASTERN NEW ENGLAND BUT STILL SOME
SCATTERED ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. PTYPE MAINLY SNOW
SHOWERS NORTHWEST OF THE SOUTHEAST PLYMOUTH COUNTY COAST...WITH RAIN
SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THAT REGION.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  SNOW SHOWERS MAY ARRIVE
TOWARDS 00Z THIS EVENING.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT MOSTLY
VFR...ISOLATED MVFR ALONG THE MASS EAST COASTLINE IN RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS WILL
BE DETERIORATING AS HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ISO THUNDER AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS MOVE INTO THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS IN CIGS AND VSBYS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS QUEBEC WILL RESULT IN PERSISTENT NORTHEAST
WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  WIND GUSTS UP TO 20
KNOTS WITH SEAS BETWEEN 2 AND 4 FEET ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST
WATERS...SO NO HEADLINES PLANNED. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY THAT A
BRIEF SURGE OF NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS WITH MARGINAL 5
FOOT SEAS COULD AFFECT OUR NORTHERN WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUN
MORNING...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ISSUE ANY HEADLINES AT THIS
POINT.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. CONTINUOUS NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP SEAS CHOPPY.
LINGERING NORTHEAST SWELL MAY BUMP SEAS ABOVE 5FT ESP ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN WATERS. SCA MAY BE NEEDED...BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...NE WINDS WILL INCREASE...GUSTING TO 30 KT
TUE THEN SHIFT TO SE GUSTING TO 30-35 KT WED...HIGHEST ON THE OUTER
WATERS. SEAS BUILD UP TO 7-11 FT BY WED. GALES WILL BE NEEDED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL OCCUR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. BREAKING
IT DOWN...ON TUESDAY HIGH TIDE AT BOSTON WILL BE 11.6 FT. THERE WILL
BE ONSHORE FLOW DURING THIS HIGH TIDE ALLOWING FOR MINOR SPLASHOVER.
IF WIND GUSTS INCREASE THEN COULD POSSIBLE SEE MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING.

ON WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL SWITCH TO A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DURING
THE DAY AND INCREASE QUICKLY FROM APPROACHING SYSTEM AND DESCENT
PRESSURE FALLS. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE IN BOSTON IS 11.7 FT
AND WITH ANY STRENGTH ON THE EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL PUSH THE TIDE
OVER. RIGHT NOW BELIEVE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE
EAST COASTLINE. HOWEVER WEDNESDAY EVENING...THE WIND GOES IN A MORE
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AND HIGH TIDE IN PROVIDENCE WILL BE 5.2 FT. 925
MB LLJ STRENGTHENS TO 50-60 KTS WHICH COULD PUSH A DESCENT SURGE UP
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST DURING THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. THINKING THAT
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING COULD OCCUR BUT CANNOT RULE OUT MODERATE
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...ESP IF LLJ STRENGTHENS EVEN MORE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...FRANK/DUNTEN/RLG
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...FRANK/DUNTEN
MARINE...FRANK/DUNTEN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KBOX 201458
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
958 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE REGION
FROM EAST TO WEST LATER TODAY INTO SUN. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL
PASS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND BRINGING ANOTHER PERIOD OF PRECIP MON
NIGHT AND TUE. A MUCH STRONGER STORM PASSING WEST OF NEW ENGLAND
WILL BRING HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS AND COASTAL FLOODING
CONCERNS TO THE REGION WED INTO WED EVENING. DRY BUT VERY WINDY
CONDITIONS FOLLOW FOR CHRISTMAS DAY INTO FRI.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL NOON TODAY/...
10 AM UPDATE...MADE MINOR UPDATES MAINLY TO THE WINDS AND POPS.
UPDATED WINDS USING THE RAP FOR ITS HIGHER DETAIL WITH THE COASTAL
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW SHOWERS HAVE MOVED ASHORE IN PLYMOUTH
COUNTY AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE CAPE AND THE EASTERN END OF CAPE
ANN. EXPECT THESE TO CONTINUE OFF AND ON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE MORNING.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN INTERESTING PATTERN. LOW CLOUDS MOVING
WESTWARD OFF THE OCEAN HAVE CREPT IN ALONG THE EAST COAST. THEN
ANOTHER AREA OF LOW CLOUDS HAVE MOVED NORTHWARD TOO ABOUT THE MASS
PIKE. NORTHWESTERN MASS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY THROUGH THE
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON WHILE CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MOVE
WESTWARD ACROSS EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /NOON TODAY THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

INTERESTING MESOSCALE SETUP AS AN INVERTED TROUGH COMBINES WITH SOME
OCEAN ENHANCEMENT.  APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL ALLOW FOR
EASTERLY FLOW JUST OFF THE GROUND.  THIS COMBINED WITH NORTHEAST
SURFACE WINDS WILL ALLOW LOW LEVEL OF THE ATMOSPHERE TO MOISTEN.
SOUNDINGS ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND BECOME SATURATED ALL THE WAY UP
TO THE -9C LAYER JUST ABOVE 850 MB.  THIS IS FAVORABLE FOR SOME
DECENT SNOW GROWTH...ITS JUST LOWER IN THE ATMOSPHERE THAN WE
TYPICALLY SEE WITH MORE SYNOPTIC SNOW EVENTS.  WHILE THIS IS NOT A
TRUE OCEAN EFFECT EVENT...DELTA T VALUES FROM THE MIXED LAYER TO THE
OCEAN ARE AROUND 15C.  THEREFORE...EXPECT SOME OCEAN ENHANCEMENT.

TIMING:

WHILE FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST NEW
ENGLAND THIS MORNING.  THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL  PRECIPITATION SHOULD
OVERSPREAD PLYMOUTH COUNTY AS WELL AS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS THIS
AFTERNOON.  GIVEN EASTERLY FLOW JUST OFF THE GROUND...EXPECT SNOW
SHOWERS TO OVERSPREAD MOST OF EASTERN NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING AS
LOW LEVELS MOISTEN.  IN FACT...SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS AFFECT EVEN OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES.

PTYPE:

MAINLY SNOW FOR ALL BUT PORTIONS OF COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY AND ONTO
THE CAPE/ISLANDS.  A SUBTLE COASTAL FRONT LOOKS TO SETUP ACROSS
SOUTHEAST COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY.  PTYPE WILL BE SNOW TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THIS REGION...BUT ENOUGH MILD AIR SHOULD COME IN OFF
THE OCEAN FOR A CHANGE TO RAIN SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THIS REGION.
NOT EXPECTING THE POSITION OF THIS SUBTLE BOUNDARY TO CHANGE MUCH
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

SNOW ACCUMULATIONS:

WE ARE GENERALLY LOOKING AT A COATING TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION.  THE MAIN FOCUS FOR 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MA...AWAY FROM THE SOUTHEAST PLYMOUTH COUNTY
COAST.  ALSO...THE WORCESTER HILLS INTO NORTHWEST RHODE ISLAND MIGHT
BE ANOTHER AREA AS A RESULT OF THE SUBTLE UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE
WIND.  YOU CAN ACTUALLY SEE THAT IN SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION
MODEL GUIDANCE.

THERE IS ONE AREA TO WATCH IN PARTICULAR...FROM NORTHWEST PLYMOUTH
COUNTY AND INTO NORFOLK COUNTY BASED ON MESOSCALE MODELS AND PATTERN
RECOGNITION.  WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE VERY LOCALIZED 3 TO 4
INCH SNOW AMOUNTS...GIVEN SOME OCEAN ENHANCEMENT AND A LITTLE FOCUS
ON THE COASTAL FRONT.  WILL TRY TO HIGHLIGHT THIS AREA IN OUR
SNOWFALL AND PROBABILISTIC  GRAPHICS.

SUNDAY...

SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE DURING THE MORNING WITH MOIST
EASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS. AGAIN...PTYPE WILL BE SNOW EXCEPT
ACROSS SOUTHEAST PLYMOUTH COUNTY/CAPE AND ISLANDS WHERE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL PROBABLY BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN SHOWERS.  WHILE SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON...EXPECT A
DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL LIFT
WEAKENS.  IT WILL REMAIN CLOUDY THOUGH WITH TEMPS IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* INVERTED TROUGH WILL BRING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO THE MASS EAST
  COASTLINE MONDAY INTO TUES MORNING.
* WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MON NIGHT/TUESDAY COULD BRING WINTRY
  MIX TO INTERIOR
* ANOMALOUS SYSTEM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING HEAVY
  RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS AROUND CHRISTMAS
  EVE

OVERVIEW...

OVERALL 00Z GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT SYNOPTICALLY WITH ISSUES ON
TIMING AND SMALLER SCALE FEATURES. IT REMAINS EVIDENT THAT AN
AMPLIFIED MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND PCPN FOCUSING LEAD SURFACE
LOW/FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL STEADILY PROGRESS TO THE EAST-CENTRAL U.S.
TUE AS EMBEDDED IMPULSES DIG TO THE LEE OF AN AMPLIFIED ERN
PACIFIC/WEST COAST RIDGE ALOFT. THE SUPPORTING AND INCREASINGLY
NEGATIVE-TILT TROUGH ALOFT WORKS OVER THE ERN US AND OUT THROUGH THE
NERN STATES INTO DAYS 4/5 WED/THU.  MODELS/ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON THIS AMPLIFIED PATTERN AND THE MOST RECENT
GEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOW GOOD CORRELATION TO NEXT THURSDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL BEGIN TO
EXIT BY MONDAY. AT THE SURFACE APPEARS ANOTHER INVERTED
TROUGH/ONSHORE FLOW WILL YIELD TO PRECIP ALONG THE MASS COASTLINE ON
MONDAY. ASIDE FROM THIS QUICK MESOSCALE EVENT THE MAIN FOCUS IS ON
THE LONGWAVE DIGGING TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WHICH WILL PUSH A
FEW SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE FLOW. FIRST ONE DEVELOPS A WEAK WAVE
MOVING TOWARDS THE REGION LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE LOCATION/STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM BUT
APPEARS THAT THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF A SNOW/WINTRY MIX IN THE
INTERIOR. AS THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS AN ANOMALOUS LOW OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WILL DEVELOP A SECONDARY LOW JUST WEST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
     PER ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. STILL A SOME SPREAD BUT IF THIS DOUBLE LOW
DOES DEVELOP THEN THE RAIN AND WIND ASPECT OF THE SYSTEM
INCREASES...DETAILS BELOW. STILL NEED TO WORK OUT MINOR DETAILS WITH
THIS PARTICULAR SYSTEM BUT WITH 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS AWAY AND
GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THIS SYSTEM WILL IMPACT
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

DETAILS...

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFFSHORE AS
DIGGING TROUGH BEGINS TO SET-UP OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. APPEARS
ANOTHER MESO-SCALE INVERTED TROUGH WILL SET UP ON MONDAY AND LAST
INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE MASS EAST COASTLINE THANKS TO ONSHORE
EASTERLY FLOW. APPEARS THE COLUMN WILL SATURATE PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
AND SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW QPF MAKING IT
ONSHORE DURING THIS TIME FRAME. HOWEVER THE EC IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER
AND KEEP THE BULK OF THE PRECIP JUST OFFSHORE. ADD A CHANCE OF POPS
DUE TO THE NAM/GFS MODEL CONTINUITY.

BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY A SOUTHERN BRANCH STORM SYSTEM
FORMS ALONG THE SE COAST AND TAKES A TRACK OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST. THIS SYSTEM GETS CAUGHT UP WITH THE OVERALL LARGE SCALE
AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER AIR PATTERN. THERE IS DECENT WARM
ADVECTION WITH COLD AIR DAMMING ACROSS THE INTERIOR. BIGGEST
QUESTION WILL BE IS THERE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR PRECIP DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. IF PRECIP OVERRUNS THEN COULD SEE FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE
ACROSS THE INTERIOR LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. DURING THE DAY
ON TUESDAY...GOOD AMOUNT OF WARM AIR WILL PUSH SURFACE TEMPS ABOVE
FREEZING ALLOWING FOR ANY PRECIP TO BE MORE OF THE LIQUID VARIETY
AHEAD OF THE CHRISTMAS EVE STORM. HOWEVER GUIDANCE IS ALWAYS TOO
FAST IN SCOURING TEMPS OUT ESP ACROSS THE CT VALLEY SO WE WILL NEED
TO MONITOR THIS CLOSELY...ESP DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND THE HIGH IN
EASTERN CANADA.

WE COULD ALSO SEE SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS ON TUESDAY. SEE
BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SYSTEM LOW CONFIDENCE
ON DETAILS.

STRONG ANOMALOUS SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE GREAT
LAKES...DEVELOPING A POTENTIAL SECONDARY SURFACE LOW JUST WEST OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. STILL A LOT OF DETAILS TO WORK OUT AS THIS
SYSTEM IS STILL 5 DAYS AWAY...HOWEVER ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW
STRONG AGREEMENT SO HAVE INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT A POTENT STORM
WILL OCCUR. LATEST 00Z GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT MOST PRECIP WILL BE
LIQUID WITH A DEEP SUBTROPICAL CONNECTION BACK ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO...PW ANOMALIES FORECAST TO RISE BETWEEN +3 TO +4. CURRENT
PWATS ARE PROGGED ABOVE 1.6 INCHES SO HAVE CONTINUED THE CATEGORICAL
POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE...IN FACT WE MAY BE
CLOSE AT BREAKING RECORD HIGH TEMPS IF TEMPS WARM TO 60F OR ABOVE ON
CHRISTMAS EVE.  AS THE SYSTEM WRAPS UP INTO CANADA...COLD AIR
ADVECTION SHOULD CIRCULATE AROUND AND BEGIN A TRANSITION FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST IN TURNING P-TYPE TO SNOW. HOWEVER LATEST
GUIDANCE DOES SHOW A QUICK MOVING DRY SLOT SO SNOWFALL WILL STRUGGLE
DUE TO LACK OF MOISTURE.

THIS SYSTEM IS QUITE POTENT SO WE WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL
HAZARDS. CURRENTLY THINK THAT WE COULD POSSIBLE URBAN FLOODING
ISSUES AS MODELS PROGGED WELL OVER 1.5 INCHES OF QPF. LATEST EC EVEN
SHOWS 2.5 INCHES OF QPF IS POSSIBLE. THE GEFS SHOW A MOISTURE FLUX
AT 850 MB BEING 4 TO 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS AWAY...AND WITH THE
TROPICAL CONNECTION AND STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW COULD SEE HIGHER
AMOUNTS DUE TO TOPOGRAPHY ENHANCEMENTS. RAIN FALL RECORDS MAY FALL
IF EVERYTHING FALLS INTO PLACE.

ALSO BELIEVE THAT WE MAY SEE SOME WIND ISSUES WITH THIS SYSTEM.
GUIDANCE RIGHT NOW IS SHOWING A 45 TO 55 KT JET AT 925 MB...HOWEVER
IT WILL BE HARD TO BREAK THE INVERSION WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW.
RIGHT NOW BELIEVE THAT WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED BUT IF THIS
SYSTEM STRENGTHEN EVEN MORE SO A STRONGER JET IS POSSIBLE.

CONTINUED THE MENTIONED OF ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE FORECAST PER PREV
FORECASTER SUGGESTION. BELIEVE IT COULD BE POSSIBLE AS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR...WITH THE ANOMALOUS JET AND
SHOWALTERS CLOSE TO ZERO.

FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

ONCE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO SOUTHERN CANADA...EXPECT A RATHER
FAST UPPER W FLOW IN PLACE. MAY SEE LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWERS BUT TEMPS
WILL FALL BACK CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

700 AM UPDATE...

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE INTERIOR
THIS AFTERNOON.  SCATTERED PRECIPITATION WILL OVERSPREAD
SOUTHEAST MA/CAPE/ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON.  PTYPE MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS
NORTHWEST OF THE SOUTHEAST PLYMOUTH COUNTY COAST AND RAIN SHOWERS
SOUTHEAST OF THAT REGION. LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE JUST
INLAND FROM THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST...WHERE PTYPE IS SNOW.

TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MVFR CONDITIONS DOMINATE
IN LOWER CLOUDS AND SCATTERED PRECIPITATION.  LOCALIZED IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN SNOW SHOWERS.
PRECIPITATION AFFECTS MAINLY EASTERN NEW ENGLAND BUT STILL SOME
SCATTERED ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. PTYPE MAINLY SNOW
SHOWERS NORTHWEST OF THE SOUTHEAST PLYMOUTH COUNTY COAST...WITH RAIN
SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THAT REGION.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  SNOW SHOWERS MAY ARRIVE
TOWARDS 00Z THIS EVENING.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT MOSTLY
VFR...ISOLATED MVFR ALONG THE MASS EAST COASTLINE IN RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS WILL
BE DETERIORATING AS HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ISO THUNDER AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS MOVE INTO THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS IN CIGS AND VSBYS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS QUEBEC WILL RESULT IN PERSISTENT NORTHEAST
WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  WIND GUSTS UP TO 20
KNOTS WITH SEAS BETWEEN 2 AND 4 FEET ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST
WATERS...SO NO HEADLINES PLANNED. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY THAT A
BRIEF SURGE OF NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS WITH MARGINAL 5
FOOT SEAS COULD AFFECT OUR NORTHERN WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUN
MORNING...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ISSUE ANY HEADLINES AT THIS
POINT.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. CONTINUOUS NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP SEAS CHOPPY.
LINGERING NORTHEAST SWELL MAY BUMP SEAS ABOVE 5FT ESP ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN WATERS. SCA MAY BE NEEDED...BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...NE WINDS WILL INCREASE...GUSTING TO 30 KT
TUE THEN SHIFT TO SE GUSTING TO 30-35 KT WED...HIGHEST ON THE OUTER
WATERS. SEAS BUILD UP TO 7-11 FT BY WED. GALES WILL BE NEEDED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL OCCUR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. BREAKING
IT DOWN...ON TUESDAY HIGH TIDE AT BOSTON WILL BE 11.6 FT. THERE WILL
BE ONSHORE FLOW DURING THIS HIGH TIDE ALLOWING FOR MINOR SPLASHOVER.
IF WIND GUSTS INCREASE THEN COULD POSSIBLE SEE MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING.

ON WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL SWITCH TO A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DURING
THE DAY AND INCREASE QUICKLY FROM APPROACHING SYSTEM AND DESCENT
PRESSURE FALLS. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE IN BOSTON IS 11.7 FT
AND WITH ANY STRENGTH ON THE EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL PUSH THE TIDE
OVER. RIGHT NOW BELIEVE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE
EAST COASTLINE. HOWEVER WEDNESDAY EVENING...THE WIND GOES IN A MORE
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AND HIGH TIDE IN PROVIDENCE WILL BE 5.2 FT. 925
MB LLJ STRENGTHENS TO 50-60 KTS WHICH COULD PUSH A DESCENT SURGE UP
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST DURING THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. THINKING THAT
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING COULD OCCUR BUT CANNOT RULE OUT MODERATE
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...ESP IF LLJ STRENGTHENS EVEN MORE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...FRANK/DUNTEN/RLG
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...FRANK/DUNTEN
MARINE...FRANK/DUNTEN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KALY 201456
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
956 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...WHILE
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION. THESE UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES WILL BRING AREAS OF CLOUDS THROUGH MONDAY...AND
PERHAPS SOME FLURRIES FOR SOUTHEAST AREAS LATE TONIGHT. UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH
A PERIOD OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 AM EST...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF
SOUTHERN VT...THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND THE UPPER HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE SARATOGA REGION AND NORTHERN
BERKSHIRES. MEANWHILE...LOW CLOUDS TRAPPED BENEATH A STRONG
INVERSION WITHIN THE H925-H850 LAYER REMAIN FOR AREAS TO THE S AND
W. WINDS WITHIN THIS LAYER ARE GRADUALLY VEERING MORE INTO THE
SE...WITH ADDITIONAL LOW CLOUDS UPSTREAM IN CT. SO...EXPECT SKIES
TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR MOST OF THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...MOHAWK VALLEY AND MUCH OF
THE CAPITAL REGION. THE CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY EXPAND NORTHWARD
A BIT AS WELL INTO THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND SARATOGA REGION.
MEANWHILE...SUNSHINE SHOULD LAST AT LEAST INTO EARLY AFTERNOON
ACROSS SOUTHERN VT AND THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...BEFORE SOME
CLOUDS REACH THESE REGIONS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING HOURS.

SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS MAY INTERMITTENTLY OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NW CT AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY THROUGH MIDDAY...BEFORE CLOUDS
INCREASE ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.

TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S IN MOST VALLEY
AREAS...WITH MAINLY LOWER/MID 20S EXPECTED ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

MEANWHILE...AN UPPER IMPULSE CURRENTLY IN THE OH VALLEY SHOULD
BRING ADDITIONAL CLOUDINESS TO ALL AREAS THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT. THERE IS VERY LITTLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FEATURE BUT THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT SOME PATCHY SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD OCCUR EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY INTO WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
ENERGY. INDICATING ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS IN THOSE AREAS BUT JUST
MOSTLY CLOUDY IN MOST OTHER AREAS TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE
LOWER TO MID 20S...MID TEENS TO AROUND 20 IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MUCH AGREEMENT AMONG THE MDL SUITE (NAM/GFS/ECMWF) DURING THE
PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THE ENTIRE PACKAGE IS SLOWER THAN 12UTC PACKAGE.
THE GEM WAS NOT AVBL.

SUNDAY SFC HIGH PRESSURE COVERS MUCH OF EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WHILE
AT 500HPA GENERALLY A FAST SORTA ZONAL FLOW IS IN PLACE. HWVR THERE
ARE TWO SHORT WVS OVER THE NE USA...AND INVERSIONS REMAIN IN
PLACE RESULTING IN CONSIDERABLE MID AND LOWER CLOUDS. SUN NT THE
500 HPA TROF DEPARTS THE NE WITH SFC HIGH CENTERED FM QB TO ATLC
SEABOARD. WITH MODEST 500HPA RIDGING BUILDING OVER SEABOARD CLOUDS
SHOULD DCR WITH FAIR CONDS.

MONDAY A SERIES OF 500HPA SHORT WVS CARVE A MAJOR FULL LATITUDE
TROF IN THE GRT PLAINS ALONG WITH SFC CYCLOGEN OVER MN/WI.
MEANWHILE FURTHER EAST 500HPA RIDGING ENSUES ALONG THE E
SEABOARD. THIS 500HPA TROF IS WEAKER THAN PVS RUNS DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD. MEANWHILE SFC HIGH ONLY SLOWLY RETREATS OFFSHORE. AS SUCH
WK SE FLOW SETS UP AND MANY AREAS MAY SE SOME SUN PART OF MONDAY.

BUT BY LATE MON AFTN WK ISENTROPIC LIFTS IS DEVELOPING OVER MUCH OF
THE EAST WITH VEERING FLOW W/HT...CSTL FRONT IS SETTING UP ALONG THE
ATLC COAST...AND CLOUDS WILL INCR AND THICKEN. MON INTO TUES NT
500HPA PATTERN BECOMES GREATLY AMPLIFIED WITH SHARPENING RIDGE ALONG
E COAST...AND FULL LAT TROF IN MISS VLY CUTTING OFF. S-SE FLOW
COVERS MUCH OF THE EAST WITH MILDER AIR STREAMING N...HWVR
CSTL/WMFNT REMAINS S OF RGN...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTS TO INCR.

RESULT WILL BE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND INCRG CHC OF PCPN. THREAT OF
PCPN WILL ONLY SLOWLY INCR TO SLGT CHC MON NT AND CHC TUE. ANY
PCPN MON NT INTO TUE WILL BE SPOTTY AND LT...--SHSN..ZL...--SHRA. BY
MID MRNG TUES IT SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ONLY LIQ PCPN.

THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A SFC WV ALONG THE CSTL FRONT TUES SUG A
HIGHER PROB OF -SHRA MAINLY S PRTNS OF FCA MON NT AND TUE...BUT
AMNTS ARE STILL QUITE LT. TEMPS WILL BE NR NORMALS MON...INCRG TO
10 DEG ABV NORMALS TUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ALL GUID IS POINTING TO A VERY DYNAMIC SYSTEM IMPACTING THE EAST
CHRISTMAS EVE AND DAY...MAKING FOR A VERY BUMPY AND WET RIDE FOR
SANTA.

BY WED MRNG FULL LAT 500HPA TROF IN MISS VLY...AND POWERFUL JET
ROUNDS ITS BASE...DRIVING IT EAST...AND NEGATIVELY TILTING IT. RAPID
CYCLOGEN ENSUES IN OHIO VALLEY...AS LOW DEEPENS AND RACES N INTO
GRTLKS AND CANADA. 500HPA TROF SWINGS EAST AND LLVL JET
INTENSIFIES DRAWING VERY MILD AIR MASS AND RICH ATLC AND GULF
MOISTURE NWRD. SHRA WILL INCR IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DURING THE
DAY WED...AS SYSTEMS CDFNT PUSHES E...TO BUF BY EVNG ALB BY 06UTC
AND OFFSHORE BY CHRISTMAS MRNG. CDFNT MAY BE ACCOMP BY HVY FRONTAL
RAIN BAND AND MAYBE ISOLD TSTM. TEMPS WILL INCR DURING THE DAY
WITH HIGHS REACHING NEAR 50. QPF IN ECMWF ON THE ORDER OF 1.5 TO
3.0 INCHES....AND GFS 0.5 TO 2.0 INCHES.

SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE RAPIDLY CHRISTMAS DAY TWRD HUDSON`S
BAY...WITH STRONG CAA INTO FCA ON VERY STRONG NW-W WINDS. TEMPS
WILL PROBABLY FALL DURING THE DAY. LK EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
DVLP INTO W FCA...AND WITH CUT OFF LIFTING NE...NW FLOW -SHSN OVER
ADRNDKS A GOOD BET.

CHRISTMAS NT THIS SYSTEM RACES N INTO N CANADA AND -SHSN END ACROSS
THE N PRTNS OF RGN. THU NT AND FRI 500HPA RIDGING REASSERTS ITSELF
OVER THE EAST...AS WELL AS AT THE SFC. FRI INTO FRI NT SHOULD
REMAIN FAIR...HWVR ANOTHER STRONG TROF IS MVNG INTO THE GRTLKS FRI
NT...WITH MILDER CONDS AHEAD OF IT...AND POSSIBLE PCPN ARRIVING BY
FRI NT OR SAT.

WHILE THERE ARES SOME TIMING AND PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES BTWN THE GFS
AND ECMWF ON DAY 7 HPC TAKES THE MIDDLE ROAD ON DAY 7. UNTIL DAY
7 ECMWF/GFS IN PRETTY MUCH IN AGREEMENT. WILL POPULATE WITH HPC
FROM MID SHIFT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE IN FROM SE ONTARIO THROUGH
THE DAY.A WEAK UPPER IMPULSE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE CLOUDS ARE EXPANDING AGAIN FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARD
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND EASTERN NY. BASED ON TRENDS IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY...KGFL SHOULD SEE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...WITH OCCASIONAL
PERIODS OF A BROKEN CEILING BETWEEN 2000-3000 FEET THIS MORNING.
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SOLID CLOUDINESS CUTS RIGHT THROUGH THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT AND BERKSHIRES...SO KALB SHOULD HAVE PERIODS OF
BROKEN AND SCATTERED CLOUDS BETWEEN 2000-3000 FEET...WHILE KPSF
AND KPOU SHOULD HAVE BROKEN TO OVERCAST CEILINGS BETWEEN 2000-3000
FEET. BY AFTERNOON...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM AN UPPER SYSTEM
SHOULD ADD A HIGHER LAYER TO THE VARYING COVERAGE OF THE LOWER
CLOUDS. THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT...
AND HOW MUCH OF THE LOWER CLOUDINESS REDEVELOPING IS IN QUESTION...
SO INCLUDING A SCATTERED LAYER BETWEEN 2000-3000 FEET IN CASE THE
LOW CLOUDS DOMINATE AGAIN.

NW TO NE WINDS OF 5-10 KTS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS. EXPECT VERY LIGHT N TO N WINDS OF LESS
THAN 5 KTS TOWARD MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN...BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KT THROUGH THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN...SLEET...DZ.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY DEFINITE RA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...RA.
CHRISTMAS DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ANTICIPATED INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY/CHRISTMAS AS A LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
ARE LIKELY...WITH POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING AND SIGNIFICANT
WITHIN BANK RISES OF LARGER STEM RIVERS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...KL/NAS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...NAS
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER








000
FXUS61 KBOX 201204
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
704 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM
EAST TO WEST LATER TODAY INTO SUNDAY.  THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE
IMMEDIATE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST...WHERE IT SHOULD BECOME MILD
ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH
OF NEW ENGLAND...BRINGING ANOTHER PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION. A MUCH
STRONGER STORM PASSING WEST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING HEAVY
RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS AND COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS TO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. DRY BUT VERY WINDY CONDITIONS
FOLLOW FOR CHRISTMAS DAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL NOON TODAY/...

700 AM UPDATE...

TREND IN THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ONSHORE
HAS LEAD TO A FEW FLURRIES ACROSS THE CAPE AND PLYMOUTH COUNTY.
SHOULD BE LOCALIZED TO THIS REGION AS THE FLOW OVER BOSTON AND
TAUNTON ARE NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY STARTING TO
FILL.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE HAS ALLOWED WINDS JUST OFF THE GROUND TO
BECOME EASTERLY.  THIS WAS ALLOWING LOW CLOUDS TO BACK INTO
SOUTHEAST MA/RI EARLY THIS MORNING.  EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE
WITH LOW CLOUDS CONTINUING TO GRADUALLY WORK FURTHER WEST...BUT M.
SUNNY SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL THIS MORNING IN NORTHWEST MA.
MEANWHILE...SOME OCEAN EFFECT FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS PLYMOUTH COUNTY AND ONTO THE CAPE/ISLANDS THIS
MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /NOON TODAY THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

INTERESTING MESOSCALE SETUP AS AN INVERTED TROUGH COMBINES WITH SOME
OCEAN ENHANCEMENT.  APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL ALLOW FOR
EASTERLY FLOW JUST OFF THE GROUND.  THIS COMBINED WITH NORTHEAST
SURFACE WINDS WILL ALLOW LOW LEVEL OF THE ATMOSPHERE TO MOISTEN.
SOUNDINGS ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND BECOME SATURATED ALL THE WAY UP
TO THE -9C LAYER JUST ABOVE 850 MB.  THIS IS FAVORABLE FOR SOME
DECENT SNOWGROWTH...ITS JUST LOWER IN THE ATMOSPHERE THAN WE
TYPICALLY SEE WITH MORE SYNOPTIC SNOW EVENTS.  WHILE THIS IS NOT A
TRUE OCEAN EFFECT EVENT...DELTA T VALUES FROM THE MIXED LAYER TO THE
OCEAN ARE AROUND 15C.  THEREFORE...EXPECT SOME OCEAN ENHANCEMENT.

TIMING:

WHILE FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST NEW
ENGLAND THIS MORNING.  THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL  PRECIPITATION SHOULD
OVERSPREAD PLYMOUTH COUNTY AS WELL AS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS THIS
AFTERNOON.  GIVEN EASTERLY FLOW JUST OFF THE GROUND...EXPECT SNOW
SHOWERS TO OVERSPREAD MOST OF EASTERN NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING AS
LOW LEVELS MOISTEN.  IN FACT...SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS AFFECT EVEN OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES.

PTYPE:

MAINLY SNOW FOR ALL BUT PORTIONS OF COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY AND ONTO
THE CAPE/ISLANDS.  A SUBTLE COASTAL FRONT LOOKS TO SETUP ACROSS
SOUTHEAST COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY.  PTYPE WILL BE SNOW TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THIS REGION...BUT ENOUGH MILD AIR SHOULD COME IN OFF
THE OCEAN FOR A CHANGE TO RAIN SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THIS REGION.
NOT EXPECTING THE POSITION OF THIS SUBTLE BOUNDARY TO CHANGE MUCH
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

SNOW ACCUMULATIONS:

WE ARE GENERALLY LOOKING AT A COATING TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION.  THE MAIN FOCUS FOR 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MA...AWAY FROM THE SOUTHEAST PLYMOUTH COUNTY
COAST.  ALSO...THE WORCESTER HILLS INTO NORTHWEST RHODE ISLAND MIGHT
BE ANOTHER AREA AS A RESULT OF THE SUBTLE UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE
WIND.  YOU CAN ACTUALLY SEE THAT IN SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION
MODEL GUIDANCE.

THERE IS ONE AREA TO WATCH IN PARTICULAR...FROM NORTHWEST PLYMOUTH
COUNTY AND INTO NORFOLK COUNTY BASED ON MESOSCALE MODELS AND PATTERN
RECOGNITION.  WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE VERY LOCALIZED 3 TO 4
INCH SNOW AMOUNTS...GIVEN SOME OCEAN ENHANCEMENT AND A LITTLE FOCUS
ON THE COASTAL FRONT.  WILL TRY TO HIGHLIGHT THIS AREA IN OUR
SNOWFALL AND PROBABILISTIC  GRAPHICS.

SUNDAY...

SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE DURING THE MORNING WITH MOIST
EASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS. AGAIN...PTYPE WILL BE SNOW EXCEPT
ACROSS SOUTHEAST PLYMOUTH COUNTY/CAPE AND ISLANDS WHERE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL PROBABLY BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN SHOWERS.  WHILE SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON...EXPECT A
DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL LIFT
WEAKENS.  IT WILL REMAIN CLOUDY THOUGH WITH TEMPS IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* INVERTED TROUGH WILL BRING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO THE MASS EAST
  COASTLINE MONDAY INTO TUES MORNING.
* WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MON NIGHT/TUESDAY COULD BRING WINTRY
  MIX TO INTERIOR
* ANOMALOUS SYSTEM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING HEAVY
  RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS AROUND CHRISTMAS
  EVE

OVERVIEW...

OVERALL 00Z GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT SYNOPTICALLY WITH ISSUES ON
TIMING AND SMALLER SCALE FEATURES. IT REMAINS EVIDENT THAT AN
AMPLIFIED MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND PCPN FOCUSING LEAD SURFACE
LOW/FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL STEADILY PROGRESS TO THE EAST-CENTRAL U.S.
TUE AS EMBEDDED IMPULSES DIG TO THE LEE OF AN AMPLIFIED ERN
PACIFIC/WEST COAST RIDGE ALOFT. THE SUPPORTING AND INCREASINGLY
NEGATIVE-TILT TROUGH ALOFT WORKS OVER THE ERN US AND OUT THROUGH THE
NERN STATES INTO DAYS 4/5 WED/THU.  MODELS/ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON THIS AMPLIFIED PATTERN AND THE MOST RECENT
GEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOW GOOD CORRELATION TO NEXT THURSDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL BEGIN TO
EXIT BY MONDAY. AT THE SURFACE APPEARS ANOTHER INVERTED
TROUGH/ONSHORE FLOW WILL YIELD TO PRECIP ALONG THE MASS COASTLINE ON
MONDAY. ASIDE FROM THIS QUICK MESOSCALE EVENT THE MAIN FOCUS IS ON
THE LONGWAVE DIGGING TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WHICH WILL PUSH A
FEW SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE FLOW. FIRST ONE DEVELOPS A WEAK WAVE
MOVING TOWARDS THE REGION LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE LOCATION/STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM BUT
APPEARS THAT THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF A SNOW/WINTRY MIX IN THE
INTERIOR. AS THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS AN ANOMALOUS LOW OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WILL DEVELOP A SECONDARY LOW JUST WEST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
     PER ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. STILL A SOME SPREAD BUT IF THIS DOUBLE LOW
DOES DEVELOP THEN THE RAIN AND WIND ASPECT OF THE SYSTEM
INCREASES...DETAILS BELOW. STILL NEED TO WORK OUT MINOR DETAILS WITH
THIS PARTICULAR SYSTEM BUT WITH 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS AWAY AND
GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THIS SYSTEM WILL IMPACT
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

DETAILS...

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFFSHORE AS
DIGGING TROUGH BEGINS TO SET-UP OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. APPEARS
ANOTHER MESO-SCALE INVERTED TROUGH WILL SET UP ON MONDAY AND LAST
INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE MASS EAST COASTLINE THANKS TO ONSHORE
EASTERLY FLOW. APPEARS THE COLUMN WILL SATURATE PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
AND SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW QPF MAKING IT
ONSHORE DURING THIS TIME FRAME. HOWEVER THE EC IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER
AND KEEP THE BULK OF THE PRECIP JUST OFFSHORE. ADD A CHANCE OF POPS
DUE TO THE NAM/GFS MODEL CONTINUITY.

BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY A SOUTHERN BRANCH STORM SYSTEM
FORMS ALONG THE SE COAST AND TAKES A TRACK OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST. THIS SYSTEM GETS CAUGHT UP WITH THE OVERALL LARGE SCALE
AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER AIR PATTERN. THERE IS DECENT WARM
ADVECTION WITH COLD AIR DAMMING ACROSS THE INTERIOR. BIGGEST
QUESTION WILL BE IS THERE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR PRECIP DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. IF PRECIP OVERRUNS THEN COULD SEE FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE
ACROSS THE INTERIOR LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. DURING THE DAY
ON TUESDAY...GOOD AMOUNT OF WARM AIR WILL PUSH SURFACE TEMPS ABOVE
FREEZING ALLOWING FOR ANY PRECIP TO BE MORE OF THE LIQUID VARIETY
AHEAD OF THE CHRISTMAS EVE STORM. HOWEVER GUIDANCE IS ALWAYS TOO
FAST IN SCOURING TEMPS OUT ESP ACROSS THE CT VALLEY SO WE WILL NEED
TO MONITOR THIS CLOSELY...ESP DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND THE HIGH IN
EASTERN CANADA.

WE COULD ALSO SEE SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS ON TUESDAY. SEE
BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SYSTEM LOW CONFIDENCE
ON DETAILS.

STRONG ANOMALOUS SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE GREAT
LAKES...DEVELOPING A POTENTIAL SECONDARY SURFACE LOW JUST WEST OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. STILL A LOT OF DETAILS TO WORK OUT AS THIS
SYSTEM IS STILL 5 DAYS AWAY...HOWEVER ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW
STRONG AGREEMENT SO HAVE INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT A POTENT STORM
WILL OCCUR. LATEST 00Z GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT MOST PRECIP WILL BE
LIQUID WITH A DEEP SUBTROPICAL CONNECTION BACK ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO...PW ANOMALIES FORECAST TO RISE BETWEEN +3 TO +4. CURRENT
PWATS ARE PROGGED ABOVE 1.6 INCHES SO HAVE CONTINUED THE CATEGORICAL
POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE...IN FACT WE MAY BE
CLOSE AT BREAKING RECORD HIGH TEMPS IF TEMPS WARM TO 60F OR ABOVE ON
CHRISTMAS EVE.  AS THE SYSTEM WRAPS UP INTO CANADA...COLD AIR
ADVECTION SHOULD CIRCULATE AROUND AND BEGIN A TRANSITION FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST IN TURNING P-TYPE TO SNOW. HOWEVER LATEST
GUIDANCE DOES SHOW A QUICK MOVING DRY SLOT SO SNOWFALL WILL STRUGGLE
DUE TO LACK OF MOISTURE.

THIS SYSTEM IS QUITE POTENT SO WE WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL
HAZARDS. CURRENTLY THINK THAT WE COULD POSSIBLE URBAN FLOODING
ISSUES AS MODELS PROGGED WELL OVER 1.5 INCHES OF QPF. LATEST EC EVEN
SHOWS 2.5 INCHES OF QPF IS POSSIBLE. THE GEFS SHOW A MOISTURE FLUX
AT 850 MB BEING 4 TO 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS AWAY...AND WITH THE
TROPICAL CONNECTION AND STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW COULD SEE HIGHER
AMOUNTS DUE TO TOPOGRAPHY ENHANCEMENTS. RAIN FALL RECORDS MAY FALL
IF EVERYTHING FALLS INTO PLACE.

ALSO BELIEVE THAT WE MAY SEE SOME WIND ISSUES WITH THIS SYSTEM.
GUIDANCE RIGHT NOW IS SHOWING A 45 TO 55 KT JET AT 925 MB...HOWEVER
IT WILL BE HARD TO BREAK THE INVERSION WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW.
RIGHT NOW BELIEVE THAT WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED BUT IF THIS
SYSTEM STRENGTHEN EVEN MORE SO A STRONGER JET IS POSSIBLE.

CONTINUED THE MENTIONED OF ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE FORECAST PER PREV
FORECASTER SUGGESTION. BELIEVE IT COULD BE POSSIBLE AS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR...WITH THE ANOMALOUS JET AND
SHOWALTERS CLOSE TO ZERO.

FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

ONCE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO SOUTHERN CANADA...EXPECT A RATHER
FAST UPPER W FLOW IN PLACE. MAY SEE LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWERS BUT TEMPS
WILL FALL BACK CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

700 AM UPDATE...

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE INTERIOR
THIS AFTERNOON.  SCATTERED PRECIPITATION WILL OVERSPREAD
SOUTHEAST MA/CAPE/ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON.  PTYPE MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS
NORTHWEST OF THE SOUTHEAST PLYMOUTH COUNTY COAST AND RAIN SHOWERS
SOUTHEAST OF THAT REGION. LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE JUST
INLAND FROM THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST...WHERE PTYPE IS SNOW.

TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MVFR CONDITIONS DOMINATE
IN LOWER CLOUDS AND SCATTERED PRECIPITATION.  LOCALIZED IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN SNOW SHOWERS.
PRECIPITATION AFFECTS MAINLY EASTERN NEW ENGLAND BUT STILL SOME
SCATTERED ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. PTYPE MAINLY SNOW
SHOWERS NORTHWEST OF THE SOUTHEAST PLYMOUTH COUNTY COAST...WITH RAIN
SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THAT REGION.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  SNOW SHOWERS MAY ARRIVE
TOWARDS 00Z THIS EVENING.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT MOSTLY
VFR...ISOLATED MVFR ALONG THE MASS EAST COASTLINE IN RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS WILL
BE DETERIORATING AS HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ISO THUNDER AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS MOVE INTO THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS IN CIGS AND VSBYS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS QUEBEC WILL RESULT IN PERSISTENT NORTHEAST
WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  WIND GUSTS UP TO 20
KNOTS WITH SEAS BETWEEN 2 AND 4 FEET ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST
WATERS...SO NO HEADLINES PLANNED. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY THAT A
BRIEF SURGE OF NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS WITH MARGINAL 5
FOOT SEAS COULD AFFECT OUR NORTHERN WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUN
MORNING...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ISSUE ANY HEADLINES AT THIS
POINT.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. CONTINUOUS NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP SEAS CHOPPY.
LINGERING NORTHEAST SWELL MAY BUMP SEAS ABOVE 5FT ESP ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN WATERS. SCA MAY BE NEEDED...BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...NE WINDS WILL INCREASE...GUSTING TO 30 KT
TUE THEN SHIFT TO SE GUSTING TO 30-35 KT WED...HIGHEST ON THE OUTER
WATERS. SEAS BUILD UP TO 7-11 FT BY WED. GALES WILL BE NEEDED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL OCCUR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. BREAKING
IT DOWN...ON TUESDAY HIGH TIDE AT BOSTON WILL BE 11.6 FT. THERE WILL
BE ONSHORE FLOW DURING THIS HIGH TIDE ALLOWING FOR MINOR SPLASHOVER.
IF WIND GUSTS INCREASE THEN COULD POSSIBLE SEE MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING.

ON WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL SWITCH TO A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DURING
THE DAY AND INCREASE QUICKLY FROM APPROACHING SYSTEM AND DESCENT
PRESSURE FALLS. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE IN BOSTON IS 11.7 FT
AND WITH ANY STRENGTH ON THE EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL PUSH THE TIDE
OVER. RIGHT NOW BELIEVE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE
EAST COASTLINE. HOWEVER WEDNESDAY EVENING...THE WIND GOES IN A MORE
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AND HIGH TIDE IN PROVIDENCE WILL BE 5.2 FT. 925
MB LLJ STRENGTHENS TO 50-60 KTS WHICH COULD PUSH A DESCENT SURGE UP
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST DURING THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. THINKING THAT
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING COULD OCCUR BUT CANNOT RULE OUT MODERATE
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...ESP IF LLJ STRENGTHENS EVEN MORE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...FRANK/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...FRANK/DUNTEN
MARINE...FRANK/DUNTEN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KBOX 201204
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
704 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM
EAST TO WEST LATER TODAY INTO SUNDAY.  THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE
IMMEDIATE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST...WHERE IT SHOULD BECOME MILD
ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH
OF NEW ENGLAND...BRINGING ANOTHER PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION. A MUCH
STRONGER STORM PASSING WEST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING HEAVY
RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS AND COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS TO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. DRY BUT VERY WINDY CONDITIONS
FOLLOW FOR CHRISTMAS DAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL NOON TODAY/...

700 AM UPDATE...

TREND IN THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ONSHORE
HAS LEAD TO A FEW FLURRIES ACROSS THE CAPE AND PLYMOUTH COUNTY.
SHOULD BE LOCALIZED TO THIS REGION AS THE FLOW OVER BOSTON AND
TAUNTON ARE NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY STARTING TO
FILL.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE HAS ALLOWED WINDS JUST OFF THE GROUND TO
BECOME EASTERLY.  THIS WAS ALLOWING LOW CLOUDS TO BACK INTO
SOUTHEAST MA/RI EARLY THIS MORNING.  EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE
WITH LOW CLOUDS CONTINUING TO GRADUALLY WORK FURTHER WEST...BUT M.
SUNNY SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL THIS MORNING IN NORTHWEST MA.
MEANWHILE...SOME OCEAN EFFECT FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS PLYMOUTH COUNTY AND ONTO THE CAPE/ISLANDS THIS
MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /NOON TODAY THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

INTERESTING MESOSCALE SETUP AS AN INVERTED TROUGH COMBINES WITH SOME
OCEAN ENHANCEMENT.  APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL ALLOW FOR
EASTERLY FLOW JUST OFF THE GROUND.  THIS COMBINED WITH NORTHEAST
SURFACE WINDS WILL ALLOW LOW LEVEL OF THE ATMOSPHERE TO MOISTEN.
SOUNDINGS ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND BECOME SATURATED ALL THE WAY UP
TO THE -9C LAYER JUST ABOVE 850 MB.  THIS IS FAVORABLE FOR SOME
DECENT SNOWGROWTH...ITS JUST LOWER IN THE ATMOSPHERE THAN WE
TYPICALLY SEE WITH MORE SYNOPTIC SNOW EVENTS.  WHILE THIS IS NOT A
TRUE OCEAN EFFECT EVENT...DELTA T VALUES FROM THE MIXED LAYER TO THE
OCEAN ARE AROUND 15C.  THEREFORE...EXPECT SOME OCEAN ENHANCEMENT.

TIMING:

WHILE FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST NEW
ENGLAND THIS MORNING.  THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL  PRECIPITATION SHOULD
OVERSPREAD PLYMOUTH COUNTY AS WELL AS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS THIS
AFTERNOON.  GIVEN EASTERLY FLOW JUST OFF THE GROUND...EXPECT SNOW
SHOWERS TO OVERSPREAD MOST OF EASTERN NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING AS
LOW LEVELS MOISTEN.  IN FACT...SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS AFFECT EVEN OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES.

PTYPE:

MAINLY SNOW FOR ALL BUT PORTIONS OF COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY AND ONTO
THE CAPE/ISLANDS.  A SUBTLE COASTAL FRONT LOOKS TO SETUP ACROSS
SOUTHEAST COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY.  PTYPE WILL BE SNOW TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THIS REGION...BUT ENOUGH MILD AIR SHOULD COME IN OFF
THE OCEAN FOR A CHANGE TO RAIN SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THIS REGION.
NOT EXPECTING THE POSITION OF THIS SUBTLE BOUNDARY TO CHANGE MUCH
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

SNOW ACCUMULATIONS:

WE ARE GENERALLY LOOKING AT A COATING TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION.  THE MAIN FOCUS FOR 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MA...AWAY FROM THE SOUTHEAST PLYMOUTH COUNTY
COAST.  ALSO...THE WORCESTER HILLS INTO NORTHWEST RHODE ISLAND MIGHT
BE ANOTHER AREA AS A RESULT OF THE SUBTLE UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE
WIND.  YOU CAN ACTUALLY SEE THAT IN SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION
MODEL GUIDANCE.

THERE IS ONE AREA TO WATCH IN PARTICULAR...FROM NORTHWEST PLYMOUTH
COUNTY AND INTO NORFOLK COUNTY BASED ON MESOSCALE MODELS AND PATTERN
RECOGNITION.  WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE VERY LOCALIZED 3 TO 4
INCH SNOW AMOUNTS...GIVEN SOME OCEAN ENHANCEMENT AND A LITTLE FOCUS
ON THE COASTAL FRONT.  WILL TRY TO HIGHLIGHT THIS AREA IN OUR
SNOWFALL AND PROBABILISTIC  GRAPHICS.

SUNDAY...

SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE DURING THE MORNING WITH MOIST
EASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS. AGAIN...PTYPE WILL BE SNOW EXCEPT
ACROSS SOUTHEAST PLYMOUTH COUNTY/CAPE AND ISLANDS WHERE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL PROBABLY BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN SHOWERS.  WHILE SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON...EXPECT A
DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL LIFT
WEAKENS.  IT WILL REMAIN CLOUDY THOUGH WITH TEMPS IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* INVERTED TROUGH WILL BRING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO THE MASS EAST
  COASTLINE MONDAY INTO TUES MORNING.
* WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MON NIGHT/TUESDAY COULD BRING WINTRY
  MIX TO INTERIOR
* ANOMALOUS SYSTEM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING HEAVY
  RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS AROUND CHRISTMAS
  EVE

OVERVIEW...

OVERALL 00Z GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT SYNOPTICALLY WITH ISSUES ON
TIMING AND SMALLER SCALE FEATURES. IT REMAINS EVIDENT THAT AN
AMPLIFIED MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND PCPN FOCUSING LEAD SURFACE
LOW/FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL STEADILY PROGRESS TO THE EAST-CENTRAL U.S.
TUE AS EMBEDDED IMPULSES DIG TO THE LEE OF AN AMPLIFIED ERN
PACIFIC/WEST COAST RIDGE ALOFT. THE SUPPORTING AND INCREASINGLY
NEGATIVE-TILT TROUGH ALOFT WORKS OVER THE ERN US AND OUT THROUGH THE
NERN STATES INTO DAYS 4/5 WED/THU.  MODELS/ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON THIS AMPLIFIED PATTERN AND THE MOST RECENT
GEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOW GOOD CORRELATION TO NEXT THURSDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL BEGIN TO
EXIT BY MONDAY. AT THE SURFACE APPEARS ANOTHER INVERTED
TROUGH/ONSHORE FLOW WILL YIELD TO PRECIP ALONG THE MASS COASTLINE ON
MONDAY. ASIDE FROM THIS QUICK MESOSCALE EVENT THE MAIN FOCUS IS ON
THE LONGWAVE DIGGING TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WHICH WILL PUSH A
FEW SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE FLOW. FIRST ONE DEVELOPS A WEAK WAVE
MOVING TOWARDS THE REGION LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE LOCATION/STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM BUT
APPEARS THAT THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF A SNOW/WINTRY MIX IN THE
INTERIOR. AS THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS AN ANOMALOUS LOW OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WILL DEVELOP A SECONDARY LOW JUST WEST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
     PER ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. STILL A SOME SPREAD BUT IF THIS DOUBLE LOW
DOES DEVELOP THEN THE RAIN AND WIND ASPECT OF THE SYSTEM
INCREASES...DETAILS BELOW. STILL NEED TO WORK OUT MINOR DETAILS WITH
THIS PARTICULAR SYSTEM BUT WITH 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS AWAY AND
GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THIS SYSTEM WILL IMPACT
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

DETAILS...

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFFSHORE AS
DIGGING TROUGH BEGINS TO SET-UP OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. APPEARS
ANOTHER MESO-SCALE INVERTED TROUGH WILL SET UP ON MONDAY AND LAST
INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE MASS EAST COASTLINE THANKS TO ONSHORE
EASTERLY FLOW. APPEARS THE COLUMN WILL SATURATE PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
AND SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW QPF MAKING IT
ONSHORE DURING THIS TIME FRAME. HOWEVER THE EC IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER
AND KEEP THE BULK OF THE PRECIP JUST OFFSHORE. ADD A CHANCE OF POPS
DUE TO THE NAM/GFS MODEL CONTINUITY.

BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY A SOUTHERN BRANCH STORM SYSTEM
FORMS ALONG THE SE COAST AND TAKES A TRACK OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST. THIS SYSTEM GETS CAUGHT UP WITH THE OVERALL LARGE SCALE
AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER AIR PATTERN. THERE IS DECENT WARM
ADVECTION WITH COLD AIR DAMMING ACROSS THE INTERIOR. BIGGEST
QUESTION WILL BE IS THERE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR PRECIP DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. IF PRECIP OVERRUNS THEN COULD SEE FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE
ACROSS THE INTERIOR LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. DURING THE DAY
ON TUESDAY...GOOD AMOUNT OF WARM AIR WILL PUSH SURFACE TEMPS ABOVE
FREEZING ALLOWING FOR ANY PRECIP TO BE MORE OF THE LIQUID VARIETY
AHEAD OF THE CHRISTMAS EVE STORM. HOWEVER GUIDANCE IS ALWAYS TOO
FAST IN SCOURING TEMPS OUT ESP ACROSS THE CT VALLEY SO WE WILL NEED
TO MONITOR THIS CLOSELY...ESP DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND THE HIGH IN
EASTERN CANADA.

WE COULD ALSO SEE SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS ON TUESDAY. SEE
BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SYSTEM LOW CONFIDENCE
ON DETAILS.

STRONG ANOMALOUS SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE GREAT
LAKES...DEVELOPING A POTENTIAL SECONDARY SURFACE LOW JUST WEST OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. STILL A LOT OF DETAILS TO WORK OUT AS THIS
SYSTEM IS STILL 5 DAYS AWAY...HOWEVER ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW
STRONG AGREEMENT SO HAVE INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT A POTENT STORM
WILL OCCUR. LATEST 00Z GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT MOST PRECIP WILL BE
LIQUID WITH A DEEP SUBTROPICAL CONNECTION BACK ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO...PW ANOMALIES FORECAST TO RISE BETWEEN +3 TO +4. CURRENT
PWATS ARE PROGGED ABOVE 1.6 INCHES SO HAVE CONTINUED THE CATEGORICAL
POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE...IN FACT WE MAY BE
CLOSE AT BREAKING RECORD HIGH TEMPS IF TEMPS WARM TO 60F OR ABOVE ON
CHRISTMAS EVE.  AS THE SYSTEM WRAPS UP INTO CANADA...COLD AIR
ADVECTION SHOULD CIRCULATE AROUND AND BEGIN A TRANSITION FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST IN TURNING P-TYPE TO SNOW. HOWEVER LATEST
GUIDANCE DOES SHOW A QUICK MOVING DRY SLOT SO SNOWFALL WILL STRUGGLE
DUE TO LACK OF MOISTURE.

THIS SYSTEM IS QUITE POTENT SO WE WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL
HAZARDS. CURRENTLY THINK THAT WE COULD POSSIBLE URBAN FLOODING
ISSUES AS MODELS PROGGED WELL OVER 1.5 INCHES OF QPF. LATEST EC EVEN
SHOWS 2.5 INCHES OF QPF IS POSSIBLE. THE GEFS SHOW A MOISTURE FLUX
AT 850 MB BEING 4 TO 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS AWAY...AND WITH THE
TROPICAL CONNECTION AND STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW COULD SEE HIGHER
AMOUNTS DUE TO TOPOGRAPHY ENHANCEMENTS. RAIN FALL RECORDS MAY FALL
IF EVERYTHING FALLS INTO PLACE.

ALSO BELIEVE THAT WE MAY SEE SOME WIND ISSUES WITH THIS SYSTEM.
GUIDANCE RIGHT NOW IS SHOWING A 45 TO 55 KT JET AT 925 MB...HOWEVER
IT WILL BE HARD TO BREAK THE INVERSION WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW.
RIGHT NOW BELIEVE THAT WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED BUT IF THIS
SYSTEM STRENGTHEN EVEN MORE SO A STRONGER JET IS POSSIBLE.

CONTINUED THE MENTIONED OF ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE FORECAST PER PREV
FORECASTER SUGGESTION. BELIEVE IT COULD BE POSSIBLE AS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR...WITH THE ANOMALOUS JET AND
SHOWALTERS CLOSE TO ZERO.

FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

ONCE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO SOUTHERN CANADA...EXPECT A RATHER
FAST UPPER W FLOW IN PLACE. MAY SEE LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWERS BUT TEMPS
WILL FALL BACK CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

700 AM UPDATE...

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE INTERIOR
THIS AFTERNOON.  SCATTERED PRECIPITATION WILL OVERSPREAD
SOUTHEAST MA/CAPE/ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON.  PTYPE MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS
NORTHWEST OF THE SOUTHEAST PLYMOUTH COUNTY COAST AND RAIN SHOWERS
SOUTHEAST OF THAT REGION. LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE JUST
INLAND FROM THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST...WHERE PTYPE IS SNOW.

TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MVFR CONDITIONS DOMINATE
IN LOWER CLOUDS AND SCATTERED PRECIPITATION.  LOCALIZED IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN SNOW SHOWERS.
PRECIPITATION AFFECTS MAINLY EASTERN NEW ENGLAND BUT STILL SOME
SCATTERED ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. PTYPE MAINLY SNOW
SHOWERS NORTHWEST OF THE SOUTHEAST PLYMOUTH COUNTY COAST...WITH RAIN
SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THAT REGION.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  SNOW SHOWERS MAY ARRIVE
TOWARDS 00Z THIS EVENING.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT MOSTLY
VFR...ISOLATED MVFR ALONG THE MASS EAST COASTLINE IN RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS WILL
BE DETERIORATING AS HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ISO THUNDER AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS MOVE INTO THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS IN CIGS AND VSBYS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS QUEBEC WILL RESULT IN PERSISTENT NORTHEAST
WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  WIND GUSTS UP TO 20
KNOTS WITH SEAS BETWEEN 2 AND 4 FEET ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST
WATERS...SO NO HEADLINES PLANNED. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY THAT A
BRIEF SURGE OF NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS WITH MARGINAL 5
FOOT SEAS COULD AFFECT OUR NORTHERN WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUN
MORNING...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ISSUE ANY HEADLINES AT THIS
POINT.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. CONTINUOUS NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP SEAS CHOPPY.
LINGERING NORTHEAST SWELL MAY BUMP SEAS ABOVE 5FT ESP ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN WATERS. SCA MAY BE NEEDED...BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...NE WINDS WILL INCREASE...GUSTING TO 30 KT
TUE THEN SHIFT TO SE GUSTING TO 30-35 KT WED...HIGHEST ON THE OUTER
WATERS. SEAS BUILD UP TO 7-11 FT BY WED. GALES WILL BE NEEDED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL OCCUR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. BREAKING
IT DOWN...ON TUESDAY HIGH TIDE AT BOSTON WILL BE 11.6 FT. THERE WILL
BE ONSHORE FLOW DURING THIS HIGH TIDE ALLOWING FOR MINOR SPLASHOVER.
IF WIND GUSTS INCREASE THEN COULD POSSIBLE SEE MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING.

ON WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL SWITCH TO A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DURING
THE DAY AND INCREASE QUICKLY FROM APPROACHING SYSTEM AND DESCENT
PRESSURE FALLS. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE IN BOSTON IS 11.7 FT
AND WITH ANY STRENGTH ON THE EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL PUSH THE TIDE
OVER. RIGHT NOW BELIEVE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE
EAST COASTLINE. HOWEVER WEDNESDAY EVENING...THE WIND GOES IN A MORE
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AND HIGH TIDE IN PROVIDENCE WILL BE 5.2 FT. 925
MB LLJ STRENGTHENS TO 50-60 KTS WHICH COULD PUSH A DESCENT SURGE UP
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST DURING THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. THINKING THAT
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING COULD OCCUR BUT CANNOT RULE OUT MODERATE
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...ESP IF LLJ STRENGTHENS EVEN MORE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...FRANK/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...FRANK/DUNTEN
MARINE...FRANK/DUNTEN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KALY 201126
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
626 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST AT THE SURFACE
FOR THE WEEKEND...SLIDING OFFSHORE MONDAY. WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND AS WELL WITH
AREAS OF CLOUDS.  MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY A STORM WILL ORGANIZE
IN THE GREAT PLAINS WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF PRECIPITATION AND
BRING MILDER TEMPERATURES TO OUR REGION. AS IT MOVES INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY RAIN WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD AND
TEMPERATURES EVEN MILDER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE IN SOUTHEAST CANADA GRADUALLY BUILDING SOUTH INTO
OUR REGION AND CLOUD COVER NOW RE EXPANDING FROM THE SOUTHEAST BACK
INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO JOIN THE CLOUDS
IN NY...AS THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE CLOUDINESS SETS UP THROUGH THE
MOHAWK VALLEY...CAPITAL DISTRICT INTO THE BERKSHIRES TO NEAR THE
MA/VT BORDER. SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THIS MAY BE THE LINE
BETWEEN CLOUDS AND CLEARING THROUGH THIS MORNING...MAYBE INTO THIS
AFTERNOON...UNTIL THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE OH VALLEY UPPER
ENERGY TRACKS INTO THE REGION. THEN...EVEN THE CLEAR AREAS WILL
CLOUD BACK OVER. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH THE PROXIMITY TO THE
LOW LEVEL RIDGING...SO MIXING WILL BE LIMITED BY CLOUD COVER AND
LACK OF WINDS. SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER AND
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS MORNING. HIGHS TODAY IN THE UPPER 20S TO
MID 30S.

UPPER IMPULSE CURRENTLY IN THE OH VALLEY SHOULD BRING SOME
CLOUDINESS TO ALL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THERE IS VERY
LITTLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FEATURE BUT THERE ARE
SOME INDICATIONS THAT SOME PATCHY SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD OCCUR
EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WITH A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER ENERGY. INDICATING ISOLATED
SNOW SHOWERS IN THOSE AREAS BUT JUST MOSTLY CLOUDY IN MOST OTHER
AREAS TONIGHT.  LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S...MID TEENS TO
AROUND 20 IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MUCH AGREEMENT AMONG THE MDL SUITE (NAM/GFS/ECMWF) DURING THE
PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THE ENTIRE PACKAGE IS SLOWER THAN 12UTC PACKAGE.
THE GEM WAS NOT AVBL.

SUNDAY SFC HIGH PRESSURE COVERS MUCH OF EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WHILE
AT 500HPA GENERALLY A FAST SORTA ZONAL FLOW IS IN PLACE. HWVR THERE
ARE TWO SHORT WVS OVER THE NE USA...AND INVERSIONS REMAIN IN
PLACE RESULTING IN CONSIDERABLE MID AND LOWER CLOUDS. SUN NT THE
500 HPA TROF DEPARTS THE NE WITH SFC HIGH CENTERED FM QB TO ATLC
SEABOARD. WITH MODEST 500HPA RIDGING BUILDING OVER SEABOARD CLOUDS
SHOULD DCR WITH FAIR CONDS.

MONDAY A SERIES OF 500HPA SHORT WVS CARVE A MAJOR FULL LATITUDE
TROF IN THE GRT PLAINS ALONG WITH SFC CYCLOGEN OVER MN/WI.
MEANWHILE FURTHER EAST 500HPA RIDGING ENSUES ALONG THE E
SEABOARD. THIS 500HPA TROF IS WEAKER THAN PVS RUNS DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD. MEANWHILE SFC HIGH ONLY SLOWLY RETREATS OFFSHORE. AS SUCH
WK SE FLOW SETS UP AND MANY AREAS MAY SE SOME SUN PART OF MONDAY.

BUT BY LATE MON AFTN WK ISENTROPIC LIFTS IS DEVELOPING OVER MUCH OF
THE EAST WITH VEERING FLOW W/HT...CSTL FRONT IS SETTING UP ALONG THE
ATLC COAST...AND CLOUDS WILL INCR AND THICKEN. MON INTO TUES NT
500HPA PATTERN BECOMES GREATLY AMPLIFIED WITH SHARPENING RIDGE ALONG
E COAST...AND FULL LAT TROF IN MISS VLY CUTTING OFF. S-SE FLOW
COVERS MUCH OF THE EAST WITH MILDER AIR STREAMING N...HWVR
CSTL/WMFNT REMAINS S OF RGN...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTS TO INCR.

RESULT WILL BE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND INCRG CHC OF PCPN. THREAT OF
PCPN WILL ONLY SLOWLY INCR TO SLGT CHC MON NT AND CHC TUE. ANY
PCPN MON NT INTO TUE WILL BE SPOTTY AND LT...--SHSN..ZL...--SHRA. BY
MID MRNG TUES IT SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ONLY LIQ PCPN.

THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A SFC WV ALONG THE CSTL FRONT TUES SUG A
HIGHER PROB OF -SHRA MAINLY S PRTNS OF FCA MON NT AND TUE...BUT
AMNTS ARE STILL QUITE LT. TEMPS WILL BE NR NORMALS MON...INCRG TO
10 DEG ABV NORMALS TUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ALL GUID IS POINTING TO A VERY DYNAMIC SYSTEM IMPACTING THE EAST
CHRISTMAS EVE AND DAY...MAKING FOR A VERY BUMPY AND WET RIDE FOR
SANTA.

BY WED MRNG FULL LAT 500HPA TROF IN MISS VLY...AND POWERFUL JET
ROUNDS ITS BASE...DRIVING IT EAST...AND NEGATIVELY TILTING IT. RAPID
CYCLOGEN ENSUES IN OHIO VALLEY...AS LOW DEEPENS AND RACES N INTO
GRTLKS AND CANADA. 500HPA TROF SWINGS EAST AND LLVL JET
INTENSIFIES DRAWING VERY MILD AIR MASS AND RICH ATLC AND GULF
MOISTURE NWRD. SHRA WILL INCR IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DURING THE
DAY WED...AS SYSTEMS CDFNT PUSHES E...TO BUF BY EVNG ALB BY 06UTC
AND OFFSHORE BY CHRISTMAS MRNG. CDFNT MAY BE ACCOMP BY HVY FRONTAL
RAIN BAND AND MAYBE ISOLD TSTM. TEMPS WILL INCR DURING THE DAY
WITH HIGHS REACHING NEAR 50. QPF IN ECMWF ON THE ORDER OF 1.5 TO
3.0 INCHES....AND GFS 0.5 TO 2.0 INCHES.

SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE RAPIDLY CHRISTMAS DAY TWRD HUDSON`S
BAY...WITH STRONG CAA INTO FCA ON VERY STRONG NW-W WINDS. TEMPS
WILL PROBABLY FALL DURING THE DAY. LK EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
DVLP INTO W FCA...AND WITH CUT OFF LIFTING NE...NW FLOW -SHSN OVER
ADRNDKS A GOOD BET.

CHRISTMAS NT THIS SYSTEM RACES N INTO N CANADA AND -SHSN END ACROSS
THE N PRTNS OF RGN. THU NT AND FRI 500HPA RIDGING REASSERTS ITSELF
OVER THE EAST...AS WELL AS AT THE SFC. FRI INTO FRI NT SHOULD
REMAIN FAIR...HWVR ANOTHER STRONG TROF IS MVNG INTO THE GRTLKS FRI
NT...WITH MILDER CONDS AHEAD OF IT...AND POSSIBLE PCPN ARRIVING BY
FRI NT OR SAT.

WHILE THERE ARES SOME TIMING AND PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES BTWN THE GFS
AND ECMWF ON DAY 7 HPC TAKES THE MIDDLE ROAD ON DAY 7. UNTIL DAY
7 ECMWF/GFS IN PRETTY MUCH IN AGREEMENT. WILL POPULATE WITH HPC
FROM MID SHIFT.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE IN FROM SE ONTARIO THROUGH
THE DAY.A WEAK UPPER IMPULSE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE CLOUDS ARE EXPANDING AGAIN FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARD
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND EASTERN NY. BASED ON TRENDS IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY...KGFL SHOULD SEE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...WITH OCCASIONAL
PERIODS OF A BROKEN CEILING BETWEEN 2000-3000 FEET THIS MORNING.
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SOLID CLOUDINESS CUTS RIGHT THROUGH THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT AND BERKSHIRES...SO KALB SHOULD HAVE PERIODS OF
BROKEN AND SCATTERED CLOUDS BETWEEN 2000-3000 FEET...WHILE KPSF
AND KPOU SHOULD HAVE BROKEN TO OVERCAST CEILINGS BETWEEN 2000-3000
FEET. BY AFTERNOON...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM AN UPPER SYSTEM
SHOULD ADD A HIGHER LAYER TO THE VARYING COVERAGE OF THE LOWER
CLOUDS. THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT...
AND HOW MUCH OF THE LOWER CLOUDINESS REDEVELOPING IS IN QUESTION...
SO INCLUDING A SCATTERED LAYER BETWEEN 2000-3000 FEET IN CASE THE
LOW CLOUDS DOMINATE AGAIN.

NW TO NE WINDS OF 5-10 KTS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS. EXPECT VERY LIGHT N TO N WINDS OF LESS
THAN 5 KTS TOWARD MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN...BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KT THROUGH THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN...SLEET...DZ.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY DEFINITE RA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...RA.
CHRISTMAS DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ANTICIPATED INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY/CHRISTMAS AS A LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
ARE LIKELY...WITH POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING AND SIGNIFICANT
WITHIN BANK RISES OF LARGER STEM RIVERS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...NAS
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER








000
FXUS61 KALY 201126
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
626 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST AT THE SURFACE
FOR THE WEEKEND...SLIDING OFFSHORE MONDAY. WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND AS WELL WITH
AREAS OF CLOUDS.  MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY A STORM WILL ORGANIZE
IN THE GREAT PLAINS WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF PRECIPITATION AND
BRING MILDER TEMPERATURES TO OUR REGION. AS IT MOVES INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY RAIN WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD AND
TEMPERATURES EVEN MILDER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE IN SOUTHEAST CANADA GRADUALLY BUILDING SOUTH INTO
OUR REGION AND CLOUD COVER NOW RE EXPANDING FROM THE SOUTHEAST BACK
INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO JOIN THE CLOUDS
IN NY...AS THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE CLOUDINESS SETS UP THROUGH THE
MOHAWK VALLEY...CAPITAL DISTRICT INTO THE BERKSHIRES TO NEAR THE
MA/VT BORDER. SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THIS MAY BE THE LINE
BETWEEN CLOUDS AND CLEARING THROUGH THIS MORNING...MAYBE INTO THIS
AFTERNOON...UNTIL THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE OH VALLEY UPPER
ENERGY TRACKS INTO THE REGION. THEN...EVEN THE CLEAR AREAS WILL
CLOUD BACK OVER. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH THE PROXIMITY TO THE
LOW LEVEL RIDGING...SO MIXING WILL BE LIMITED BY CLOUD COVER AND
LACK OF WINDS. SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER AND
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS MORNING. HIGHS TODAY IN THE UPPER 20S TO
MID 30S.

UPPER IMPULSE CURRENTLY IN THE OH VALLEY SHOULD BRING SOME
CLOUDINESS TO ALL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THERE IS VERY
LITTLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FEATURE BUT THERE ARE
SOME INDICATIONS THAT SOME PATCHY SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD OCCUR
EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WITH A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER ENERGY. INDICATING ISOLATED
SNOW SHOWERS IN THOSE AREAS BUT JUST MOSTLY CLOUDY IN MOST OTHER
AREAS TONIGHT.  LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S...MID TEENS TO
AROUND 20 IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MUCH AGREEMENT AMONG THE MDL SUITE (NAM/GFS/ECMWF) DURING THE
PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THE ENTIRE PACKAGE IS SLOWER THAN 12UTC PACKAGE.
THE GEM WAS NOT AVBL.

SUNDAY SFC HIGH PRESSURE COVERS MUCH OF EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WHILE
AT 500HPA GENERALLY A FAST SORTA ZONAL FLOW IS IN PLACE. HWVR THERE
ARE TWO SHORT WVS OVER THE NE USA...AND INVERSIONS REMAIN IN
PLACE RESULTING IN CONSIDERABLE MID AND LOWER CLOUDS. SUN NT THE
500 HPA TROF DEPARTS THE NE WITH SFC HIGH CENTERED FM QB TO ATLC
SEABOARD. WITH MODEST 500HPA RIDGING BUILDING OVER SEABOARD CLOUDS
SHOULD DCR WITH FAIR CONDS.

MONDAY A SERIES OF 500HPA SHORT WVS CARVE A MAJOR FULL LATITUDE
TROF IN THE GRT PLAINS ALONG WITH SFC CYCLOGEN OVER MN/WI.
MEANWHILE FURTHER EAST 500HPA RIDGING ENSUES ALONG THE E
SEABOARD. THIS 500HPA TROF IS WEAKER THAN PVS RUNS DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD. MEANWHILE SFC HIGH ONLY SLOWLY RETREATS OFFSHORE. AS SUCH
WK SE FLOW SETS UP AND MANY AREAS MAY SE SOME SUN PART OF MONDAY.

BUT BY LATE MON AFTN WK ISENTROPIC LIFTS IS DEVELOPING OVER MUCH OF
THE EAST WITH VEERING FLOW W/HT...CSTL FRONT IS SETTING UP ALONG THE
ATLC COAST...AND CLOUDS WILL INCR AND THICKEN. MON INTO TUES NT
500HPA PATTERN BECOMES GREATLY AMPLIFIED WITH SHARPENING RIDGE ALONG
E COAST...AND FULL LAT TROF IN MISS VLY CUTTING OFF. S-SE FLOW
COVERS MUCH OF THE EAST WITH MILDER AIR STREAMING N...HWVR
CSTL/WMFNT REMAINS S OF RGN...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTS TO INCR.

RESULT WILL BE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND INCRG CHC OF PCPN. THREAT OF
PCPN WILL ONLY SLOWLY INCR TO SLGT CHC MON NT AND CHC TUE. ANY
PCPN MON NT INTO TUE WILL BE SPOTTY AND LT...--SHSN..ZL...--SHRA. BY
MID MRNG TUES IT SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ONLY LIQ PCPN.

THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A SFC WV ALONG THE CSTL FRONT TUES SUG A
HIGHER PROB OF -SHRA MAINLY S PRTNS OF FCA MON NT AND TUE...BUT
AMNTS ARE STILL QUITE LT. TEMPS WILL BE NR NORMALS MON...INCRG TO
10 DEG ABV NORMALS TUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ALL GUID IS POINTING TO A VERY DYNAMIC SYSTEM IMPACTING THE EAST
CHRISTMAS EVE AND DAY...MAKING FOR A VERY BUMPY AND WET RIDE FOR
SANTA.

BY WED MRNG FULL LAT 500HPA TROF IN MISS VLY...AND POWERFUL JET
ROUNDS ITS BASE...DRIVING IT EAST...AND NEGATIVELY TILTING IT. RAPID
CYCLOGEN ENSUES IN OHIO VALLEY...AS LOW DEEPENS AND RACES N INTO
GRTLKS AND CANADA. 500HPA TROF SWINGS EAST AND LLVL JET
INTENSIFIES DRAWING VERY MILD AIR MASS AND RICH ATLC AND GULF
MOISTURE NWRD. SHRA WILL INCR IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DURING THE
DAY WED...AS SYSTEMS CDFNT PUSHES E...TO BUF BY EVNG ALB BY 06UTC
AND OFFSHORE BY CHRISTMAS MRNG. CDFNT MAY BE ACCOMP BY HVY FRONTAL
RAIN BAND AND MAYBE ISOLD TSTM. TEMPS WILL INCR DURING THE DAY
WITH HIGHS REACHING NEAR 50. QPF IN ECMWF ON THE ORDER OF 1.5 TO
3.0 INCHES....AND GFS 0.5 TO 2.0 INCHES.

SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE RAPIDLY CHRISTMAS DAY TWRD HUDSON`S
BAY...WITH STRONG CAA INTO FCA ON VERY STRONG NW-W WINDS. TEMPS
WILL PROBABLY FALL DURING THE DAY. LK EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
DVLP INTO W FCA...AND WITH CUT OFF LIFTING NE...NW FLOW -SHSN OVER
ADRNDKS A GOOD BET.

CHRISTMAS NT THIS SYSTEM RACES N INTO N CANADA AND -SHSN END ACROSS
THE N PRTNS OF RGN. THU NT AND FRI 500HPA RIDGING REASSERTS ITSELF
OVER THE EAST...AS WELL AS AT THE SFC. FRI INTO FRI NT SHOULD
REMAIN FAIR...HWVR ANOTHER STRONG TROF IS MVNG INTO THE GRTLKS FRI
NT...WITH MILDER CONDS AHEAD OF IT...AND POSSIBLE PCPN ARRIVING BY
FRI NT OR SAT.

WHILE THERE ARES SOME TIMING AND PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES BTWN THE GFS
AND ECMWF ON DAY 7 HPC TAKES THE MIDDLE ROAD ON DAY 7. UNTIL DAY
7 ECMWF/GFS IN PRETTY MUCH IN AGREEMENT. WILL POPULATE WITH HPC
FROM MID SHIFT.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE IN FROM SE ONTARIO THROUGH
THE DAY.A WEAK UPPER IMPULSE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE CLOUDS ARE EXPANDING AGAIN FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARD
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND EASTERN NY. BASED ON TRENDS IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY...KGFL SHOULD SEE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...WITH OCCASIONAL
PERIODS OF A BROKEN CEILING BETWEEN 2000-3000 FEET THIS MORNING.
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SOLID CLOUDINESS CUTS RIGHT THROUGH THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT AND BERKSHIRES...SO KALB SHOULD HAVE PERIODS OF
BROKEN AND SCATTERED CLOUDS BETWEEN 2000-3000 FEET...WHILE KPSF
AND KPOU SHOULD HAVE BROKEN TO OVERCAST CEILINGS BETWEEN 2000-3000
FEET. BY AFTERNOON...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM AN UPPER SYSTEM
SHOULD ADD A HIGHER LAYER TO THE VARYING COVERAGE OF THE LOWER
CLOUDS. THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT...
AND HOW MUCH OF THE LOWER CLOUDINESS REDEVELOPING IS IN QUESTION...
SO INCLUDING A SCATTERED LAYER BETWEEN 2000-3000 FEET IN CASE THE
LOW CLOUDS DOMINATE AGAIN.

NW TO NE WINDS OF 5-10 KTS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS. EXPECT VERY LIGHT N TO N WINDS OF LESS
THAN 5 KTS TOWARD MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN...BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KT THROUGH THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN...SLEET...DZ.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY DEFINITE RA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...RA.
CHRISTMAS DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ANTICIPATED INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY/CHRISTMAS AS A LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
ARE LIKELY...WITH POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING AND SIGNIFICANT
WITHIN BANK RISES OF LARGER STEM RIVERS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...NAS
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER







000
FXUS61 KOKX 201108
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
608 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WEAKENS AS IT APPROACHES MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM THEN AFFECTS THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH ITS EFFECTS STILL FELT
ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH SHIFTS EAST TOWARD MAINE. THE MAIN
FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER. SOME
MOISTURE IS BEING TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION NEAR 900MB...AND MODELS
IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT MOISTURE INCREASES BELOW THIS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WILL GO WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY FORECAST. QPF
OUTPUT ALSO INDICATES VERY LIGHT PCPN CHANCES OVER THE FORKS
REGION/SE CT TOWARDS SUNSET...BUT WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR
THE DAYTIME. MAV/NAM MOS BLEND LOOKED GOOD FOR HIGH TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WE WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF PCPN FOR SOME AREAS TONIGHT...BUT VERY
LIGHT. DURING THE EVENING...WEAK LIFT...MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN
AREAS...WILL BE SUPPLIED BY A SHORTWAVE IN THE LOW-MID LEVELS. THIS
COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW OVER LONG ISLAND AND SE CT. THEN FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...CHANCES OF FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SPREAD WEST WITH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION AND INCREASING PVA FROM THE WEST.
THINKING IS THAT PCPN TYPE WOULD FAVOR FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW OVER
DRIZZLE IN SPITE OF MOISTURE LACKING IN THE MID LEVELS. LOOKS LIKE
COLDEST TEMPS IN THE SATURATED LAYER BENEATH THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION
WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ICE CRYSTALS. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS
WOULD ALSO TEND TO FAVOR FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW.

MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH
FLURRIES/DRIZZLE POSSIBLE...THEN NVA BEHIND IT AND DEEP-LAYERED
RIDGING LIKELY PREVENTS PCPN IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS NEAR
NORMAL. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST ON MONDAY AND BEGINS TO HEAD NORTH. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST SHIFTS FARTHER EAST. THIS WILL LOW LEVEL
WINDS HERE VEER TO THE EAST AND AID LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION. A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH FROM THE CENTER OF THE LOW WILL SERVE
AS A FOCUS FOR WEAK LIFT AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. LOW CHANCES OF
LIGHT RAIN RESULT...BUT BETTER OVERALL CHANCES OCCUR DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THE LOW CENTER WEAKENS AS IT HEADS NORTH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE LOW STILL STRENGTHENS...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE STILL INCREASES ON AN ENE FLOW...AND THE SURFACE
TROUGH WILL STILL BE IN THE VICINITY. POPS FOR TUESDAY MIGHT BE A
LITTLE TOO HIGH...BUT THEY ARE STILL REASONABLE...AND CURRENTLY DO
NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO LOWER POPS FROM THE CURRENT LOW-END
LIKELY. BETTER OVERALL CHANCES OF RAIN OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON. PCPN
TYPE IS RAIN...EXCEPT A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW LATE MON NIGHT AND TUES
MORNING FOR THE NORTHERN FRINGE ZONES. MIGHT NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING STARTING WITH TUESDAY
MORNING`S HIGH TIDE CYCLE AS A PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS.

A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM THEN AFFECTS US CHRISTMAS EVE AND DAY.
MODELS SHOW A STRONG PRIMARY LOW CENTER MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE MOVING INTO ONTARIO ON THURSDAY. A
WEAKER SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE CENTER OR TRIPLE POINT LOW FORMS IN
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BEFORE PASSING OVER OR JUST NORTH OF US
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE NIGHT. CATEGORICAL POPS FOR WEDS/WEDS EVENING BEFORE THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH...THEN JUST LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...MAINLY EAST OF THE CITY. RAINFALL EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY
ON THE MODERATE SIDE WITH MINOR URBAN FLOODING POSSIBLE. FOR
THURSDAY...A STRONG FETCH OFF OF LAKE ERIE COULD BRING A RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWER TO THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE CWA THURSDAY MORNING.

BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR WEDS THRU THURS. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET PUSHES
THROUGH THE EASTERN ZONES WEDS AFTN/EVE...BUT STRONG GUSTS WILL
PROBABLY HAVE A TOUGH TIME MIXING DOWN THROUGH AN INVERSION.
STRONGER GUSTS MAY BE REALIZED DURING THURSDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
COURTESY OF BETTER MIXING. MARGINAL ADVISORY CRITERIA GUSTS COULD BE
POSSIBLE WEDS AFTN THRU THURS. TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE
ABOVE AVERAGE. HIGHS ON WEDS IN THE 50S...AND WITH A MODERATE WSW
FLOW AND PARTIAL SUNSHINE ON THURSDAY...HIGH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 40S
EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND CLOSER TO
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE AREA FOR THIS WEEKEND AND DEPARTS EARLY
IN THE NEW WEEK.

CIGS WILL VARY BETWEEN SCT-BKN 2500-3500 FT AS MOISTURE REMAINS
TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION. BEST CHANCES FOR VFR CIGS WILL OCCUR
FROM AROUND 15Z-22Z TODAY. INCREASING CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD BKN-
OVC MVFR CIGS 2500-3000 FT TONIGHT.

N TO NE WINDS AT 6-8 KT TODAY WILL BECOME LGT/VRB LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH TONIGHT.

LIGHT SNOW AND/OR FLURRIES POSSIBLE FOR KGON/KISP AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SUNDAY...MVFR CIGS...WITH LIGHT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE FOR
CITY/COASTAL TERMINALS. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS.
.MON...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN E-SE FLOW. CHC OF RAIN.
.MON NIGHT-TUE...IFR LIKELY AT TIMES IN RAIN...CIGS AND VSBYS. E-SE
WINDS 10-20 KT.
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...HIGH IMPACT EVENT POSSIBLE...IFR LIKELY WITH
HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY SE WINDS 25KT+ SHIFTING TO SW LATE WED.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE WATERS...CAN EXPECT NORTH WINDS 10
KT OR LESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH SEAS GENERALLY 1-2 FT ON
THE OCEAN OR 1 FT OR LESS ON ALL OTHER WATERS.

EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ON MONDAY AS LOW PRES PASSES SOUTH OF THE
WATERS EARLY IN THE NEW WEEK. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDS DEVELOP ON
TUESDAY AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS. ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC AREA AND TRACKS NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THAT LOW RAPIDLY DEEPENS OVER CANADA ON THURSDAY...
ALLOWING THE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN OVER THE WATERS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND THEN GALES ARE
LIKELY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO IMPACTS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AROUND A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE IS POSSIBLE MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AS LOW PRES PASSES SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND.
NO HYDROLOGICAL IMPACTS EXPECTED.

RAIN ON WED/WED NIGHT MAY AVERAGE 1-2 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION.
MINOR URBAN FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...MPS
HYDROLOGY...JC











000
FXUS61 KOKX 201108
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
608 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WEAKENS AS IT APPROACHES MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM THEN AFFECTS THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH ITS EFFECTS STILL FELT
ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH SHIFTS EAST TOWARD MAINE. THE MAIN
FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER. SOME
MOISTURE IS BEING TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION NEAR 900MB...AND MODELS
IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT MOISTURE INCREASES BELOW THIS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WILL GO WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY FORECAST. QPF
OUTPUT ALSO INDICATES VERY LIGHT PCPN CHANCES OVER THE FORKS
REGION/SE CT TOWARDS SUNSET...BUT WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR
THE DAYTIME. MAV/NAM MOS BLEND LOOKED GOOD FOR HIGH TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WE WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF PCPN FOR SOME AREAS TONIGHT...BUT VERY
LIGHT. DURING THE EVENING...WEAK LIFT...MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN
AREAS...WILL BE SUPPLIED BY A SHORTWAVE IN THE LOW-MID LEVELS. THIS
COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW OVER LONG ISLAND AND SE CT. THEN FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...CHANCES OF FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SPREAD WEST WITH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION AND INCREASING PVA FROM THE WEST.
THINKING IS THAT PCPN TYPE WOULD FAVOR FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW OVER
DRIZZLE IN SPITE OF MOISTURE LACKING IN THE MID LEVELS. LOOKS LIKE
COLDEST TEMPS IN THE SATURATED LAYER BENEATH THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION
WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ICE CRYSTALS. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS
WOULD ALSO TEND TO FAVOR FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW.

MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH
FLURRIES/DRIZZLE POSSIBLE...THEN NVA BEHIND IT AND DEEP-LAYERED
RIDGING LIKELY PREVENTS PCPN IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS NEAR
NORMAL. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST ON MONDAY AND BEGINS TO HEAD NORTH. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST SHIFTS FARTHER EAST. THIS WILL LOW LEVEL
WINDS HERE VEER TO THE EAST AND AID LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION. A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH FROM THE CENTER OF THE LOW WILL SERVE
AS A FOCUS FOR WEAK LIFT AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. LOW CHANCES OF
LIGHT RAIN RESULT...BUT BETTER OVERALL CHANCES OCCUR DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THE LOW CENTER WEAKENS AS IT HEADS NORTH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE LOW STILL STRENGTHENS...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE STILL INCREASES ON AN ENE FLOW...AND THE SURFACE
TROUGH WILL STILL BE IN THE VICINITY. POPS FOR TUESDAY MIGHT BE A
LITTLE TOO HIGH...BUT THEY ARE STILL REASONABLE...AND CURRENTLY DO
NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO LOWER POPS FROM THE CURRENT LOW-END
LIKELY. BETTER OVERALL CHANCES OF RAIN OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON. PCPN
TYPE IS RAIN...EXCEPT A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW LATE MON NIGHT AND TUES
MORNING FOR THE NORTHERN FRINGE ZONES. MIGHT NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING STARTING WITH TUESDAY
MORNING`S HIGH TIDE CYCLE AS A PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS.

A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM THEN AFFECTS US CHRISTMAS EVE AND DAY.
MODELS SHOW A STRONG PRIMARY LOW CENTER MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE MOVING INTO ONTARIO ON THURSDAY. A
WEAKER SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE CENTER OR TRIPLE POINT LOW FORMS IN
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BEFORE PASSING OVER OR JUST NORTH OF US
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE NIGHT. CATEGORICAL POPS FOR WEDS/WEDS EVENING BEFORE THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH...THEN JUST LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...MAINLY EAST OF THE CITY. RAINFALL EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY
ON THE MODERATE SIDE WITH MINOR URBAN FLOODING POSSIBLE. FOR
THURSDAY...A STRONG FETCH OFF OF LAKE ERIE COULD BRING A RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWER TO THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE CWA THURSDAY MORNING.

BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR WEDS THRU THURS. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET PUSHES
THROUGH THE EASTERN ZONES WEDS AFTN/EVE...BUT STRONG GUSTS WILL
PROBABLY HAVE A TOUGH TIME MIXING DOWN THROUGH AN INVERSION.
STRONGER GUSTS MAY BE REALIZED DURING THURSDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
COURTESY OF BETTER MIXING. MARGINAL ADVISORY CRITERIA GUSTS COULD BE
POSSIBLE WEDS AFTN THRU THURS. TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE
ABOVE AVERAGE. HIGHS ON WEDS IN THE 50S...AND WITH A MODERATE WSW
FLOW AND PARTIAL SUNSHINE ON THURSDAY...HIGH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 40S
EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND CLOSER TO
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE AREA FOR THIS WEEKEND AND DEPARTS EARLY
IN THE NEW WEEK.

CIGS WILL VARY BETWEEN SCT-BKN 2500-3500 FT AS MOISTURE REMAINS
TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION. BEST CHANCES FOR VFR CIGS WILL OCCUR
FROM AROUND 15Z-22Z TODAY. INCREASING CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD BKN-
OVC MVFR CIGS 2500-3000 FT TONIGHT.

N TO NE WINDS AT 6-8 KT TODAY WILL BECOME LGT/VRB LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH TONIGHT.

LIGHT SNOW AND/OR FLURRIES POSSIBLE FOR KGON/KISP AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SUNDAY...MVFR CIGS...WITH LIGHT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE FOR
CITY/COASTAL TERMINALS. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS.
.MON...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN E-SE FLOW. CHC OF RAIN.
.MON NIGHT-TUE...IFR LIKELY AT TIMES IN RAIN...CIGS AND VSBYS. E-SE
WINDS 10-20 KT.
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...HIGH IMPACT EVENT POSSIBLE...IFR LIKELY WITH
HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY SE WINDS 25KT+ SHIFTING TO SW LATE WED.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE WATERS...CAN EXPECT NORTH WINDS 10
KT OR LESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH SEAS GENERALLY 1-2 FT ON
THE OCEAN OR 1 FT OR LESS ON ALL OTHER WATERS.

EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ON MONDAY AS LOW PRES PASSES SOUTH OF THE
WATERS EARLY IN THE NEW WEEK. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDS DEVELOP ON
TUESDAY AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS. ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC AREA AND TRACKS NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THAT LOW RAPIDLY DEEPENS OVER CANADA ON THURSDAY...
ALLOWING THE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN OVER THE WATERS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND THEN GALES ARE
LIKELY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO IMPACTS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AROUND A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE IS POSSIBLE MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AS LOW PRES PASSES SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND.
NO HYDROLOGICAL IMPACTS EXPECTED.

RAIN ON WED/WED NIGHT MAY AVERAGE 1-2 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION.
MINOR URBAN FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...MPS
HYDROLOGY...JC











000
FXUS61 KOKX 201108
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
608 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WEAKENS AS IT APPROACHES MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM THEN AFFECTS THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH ITS EFFECTS STILL FELT
ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH SHIFTS EAST TOWARD MAINE. THE MAIN
FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER. SOME
MOISTURE IS BEING TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION NEAR 900MB...AND MODELS
IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT MOISTURE INCREASES BELOW THIS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WILL GO WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY FORECAST. QPF
OUTPUT ALSO INDICATES VERY LIGHT PCPN CHANCES OVER THE FORKS
REGION/SE CT TOWARDS SUNSET...BUT WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR
THE DAYTIME. MAV/NAM MOS BLEND LOOKED GOOD FOR HIGH TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WE WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF PCPN FOR SOME AREAS TONIGHT...BUT VERY
LIGHT. DURING THE EVENING...WEAK LIFT...MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN
AREAS...WILL BE SUPPLIED BY A SHORTWAVE IN THE LOW-MID LEVELS. THIS
COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW OVER LONG ISLAND AND SE CT. THEN FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...CHANCES OF FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SPREAD WEST WITH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION AND INCREASING PVA FROM THE WEST.
THINKING IS THAT PCPN TYPE WOULD FAVOR FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW OVER
DRIZZLE IN SPITE OF MOISTURE LACKING IN THE MID LEVELS. LOOKS LIKE
COLDEST TEMPS IN THE SATURATED LAYER BENEATH THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION
WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ICE CRYSTALS. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS
WOULD ALSO TEND TO FAVOR FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW.

MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH
FLURRIES/DRIZZLE POSSIBLE...THEN NVA BEHIND IT AND DEEP-LAYERED
RIDGING LIKELY PREVENTS PCPN IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS NEAR
NORMAL. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST ON MONDAY AND BEGINS TO HEAD NORTH. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST SHIFTS FARTHER EAST. THIS WILL LOW LEVEL
WINDS HERE VEER TO THE EAST AND AID LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION. A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH FROM THE CENTER OF THE LOW WILL SERVE
AS A FOCUS FOR WEAK LIFT AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. LOW CHANCES OF
LIGHT RAIN RESULT...BUT BETTER OVERALL CHANCES OCCUR DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THE LOW CENTER WEAKENS AS IT HEADS NORTH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE LOW STILL STRENGTHENS...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE STILL INCREASES ON AN ENE FLOW...AND THE SURFACE
TROUGH WILL STILL BE IN THE VICINITY. POPS FOR TUESDAY MIGHT BE A
LITTLE TOO HIGH...BUT THEY ARE STILL REASONABLE...AND CURRENTLY DO
NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO LOWER POPS FROM THE CURRENT LOW-END
LIKELY. BETTER OVERALL CHANCES OF RAIN OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON. PCPN
TYPE IS RAIN...EXCEPT A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW LATE MON NIGHT AND TUES
MORNING FOR THE NORTHERN FRINGE ZONES. MIGHT NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING STARTING WITH TUESDAY
MORNING`S HIGH TIDE CYCLE AS A PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS.

A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM THEN AFFECTS US CHRISTMAS EVE AND DAY.
MODELS SHOW A STRONG PRIMARY LOW CENTER MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE MOVING INTO ONTARIO ON THURSDAY. A
WEAKER SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE CENTER OR TRIPLE POINT LOW FORMS IN
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BEFORE PASSING OVER OR JUST NORTH OF US
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE NIGHT. CATEGORICAL POPS FOR WEDS/WEDS EVENING BEFORE THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH...THEN JUST LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...MAINLY EAST OF THE CITY. RAINFALL EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY
ON THE MODERATE SIDE WITH MINOR URBAN FLOODING POSSIBLE. FOR
THURSDAY...A STRONG FETCH OFF OF LAKE ERIE COULD BRING A RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWER TO THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE CWA THURSDAY MORNING.

BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR WEDS THRU THURS. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET PUSHES
THROUGH THE EASTERN ZONES WEDS AFTN/EVE...BUT STRONG GUSTS WILL
PROBABLY HAVE A TOUGH TIME MIXING DOWN THROUGH AN INVERSION.
STRONGER GUSTS MAY BE REALIZED DURING THURSDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
COURTESY OF BETTER MIXING. MARGINAL ADVISORY CRITERIA GUSTS COULD BE
POSSIBLE WEDS AFTN THRU THURS. TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE
ABOVE AVERAGE. HIGHS ON WEDS IN THE 50S...AND WITH A MODERATE WSW
FLOW AND PARTIAL SUNSHINE ON THURSDAY...HIGH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 40S
EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND CLOSER TO
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE AREA FOR THIS WEEKEND AND DEPARTS EARLY
IN THE NEW WEEK.

CIGS WILL VARY BETWEEN SCT-BKN 2500-3500 FT AS MOISTURE REMAINS
TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION. BEST CHANCES FOR VFR CIGS WILL OCCUR
FROM AROUND 15Z-22Z TODAY. INCREASING CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD BKN-
OVC MVFR CIGS 2500-3000 FT TONIGHT.

N TO NE WINDS AT 6-8 KT TODAY WILL BECOME LGT/VRB LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH TONIGHT.

LIGHT SNOW AND/OR FLURRIES POSSIBLE FOR KGON/KISP AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SUNDAY...MVFR CIGS...WITH LIGHT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE FOR
CITY/COASTAL TERMINALS. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS.
.MON...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN E-SE FLOW. CHC OF RAIN.
.MON NIGHT-TUE...IFR LIKELY AT TIMES IN RAIN...CIGS AND VSBYS. E-SE
WINDS 10-20 KT.
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...HIGH IMPACT EVENT POSSIBLE...IFR LIKELY WITH
HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY SE WINDS 25KT+ SHIFTING TO SW LATE WED.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE WATERS...CAN EXPECT NORTH WINDS 10
KT OR LESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH SEAS GENERALLY 1-2 FT ON
THE OCEAN OR 1 FT OR LESS ON ALL OTHER WATERS.

EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ON MONDAY AS LOW PRES PASSES SOUTH OF THE
WATERS EARLY IN THE NEW WEEK. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDS DEVELOP ON
TUESDAY AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS. ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC AREA AND TRACKS NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THAT LOW RAPIDLY DEEPENS OVER CANADA ON THURSDAY...
ALLOWING THE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN OVER THE WATERS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND THEN GALES ARE
LIKELY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO IMPACTS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AROUND A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE IS POSSIBLE MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AS LOW PRES PASSES SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND.
NO HYDROLOGICAL IMPACTS EXPECTED.

RAIN ON WED/WED NIGHT MAY AVERAGE 1-2 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION.
MINOR URBAN FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...MPS
HYDROLOGY...JC











000
FXUS61 KOKX 201108
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
608 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WEAKENS AS IT APPROACHES MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM THEN AFFECTS THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH ITS EFFECTS STILL FELT
ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH SHIFTS EAST TOWARD MAINE. THE MAIN
FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER. SOME
MOISTURE IS BEING TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION NEAR 900MB...AND MODELS
IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT MOISTURE INCREASES BELOW THIS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WILL GO WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY FORECAST. QPF
OUTPUT ALSO INDICATES VERY LIGHT PCPN CHANCES OVER THE FORKS
REGION/SE CT TOWARDS SUNSET...BUT WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR
THE DAYTIME. MAV/NAM MOS BLEND LOOKED GOOD FOR HIGH TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WE WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF PCPN FOR SOME AREAS TONIGHT...BUT VERY
LIGHT. DURING THE EVENING...WEAK LIFT...MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN
AREAS...WILL BE SUPPLIED BY A SHORTWAVE IN THE LOW-MID LEVELS. THIS
COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW OVER LONG ISLAND AND SE CT. THEN FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...CHANCES OF FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SPREAD WEST WITH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION AND INCREASING PVA FROM THE WEST.
THINKING IS THAT PCPN TYPE WOULD FAVOR FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW OVER
DRIZZLE IN SPITE OF MOISTURE LACKING IN THE MID LEVELS. LOOKS LIKE
COLDEST TEMPS IN THE SATURATED LAYER BENEATH THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION
WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ICE CRYSTALS. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS
WOULD ALSO TEND TO FAVOR FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW.

MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH
FLURRIES/DRIZZLE POSSIBLE...THEN NVA BEHIND IT AND DEEP-LAYERED
RIDGING LIKELY PREVENTS PCPN IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS NEAR
NORMAL. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST ON MONDAY AND BEGINS TO HEAD NORTH. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST SHIFTS FARTHER EAST. THIS WILL LOW LEVEL
WINDS HERE VEER TO THE EAST AND AID LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION. A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH FROM THE CENTER OF THE LOW WILL SERVE
AS A FOCUS FOR WEAK LIFT AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. LOW CHANCES OF
LIGHT RAIN RESULT...BUT BETTER OVERALL CHANCES OCCUR DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THE LOW CENTER WEAKENS AS IT HEADS NORTH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE LOW STILL STRENGTHENS...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE STILL INCREASES ON AN ENE FLOW...AND THE SURFACE
TROUGH WILL STILL BE IN THE VICINITY. POPS FOR TUESDAY MIGHT BE A
LITTLE TOO HIGH...BUT THEY ARE STILL REASONABLE...AND CURRENTLY DO
NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO LOWER POPS FROM THE CURRENT LOW-END
LIKELY. BETTER OVERALL CHANCES OF RAIN OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON. PCPN
TYPE IS RAIN...EXCEPT A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW LATE MON NIGHT AND TUES
MORNING FOR THE NORTHERN FRINGE ZONES. MIGHT NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING STARTING WITH TUESDAY
MORNING`S HIGH TIDE CYCLE AS A PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS.

A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM THEN AFFECTS US CHRISTMAS EVE AND DAY.
MODELS SHOW A STRONG PRIMARY LOW CENTER MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE MOVING INTO ONTARIO ON THURSDAY. A
WEAKER SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE CENTER OR TRIPLE POINT LOW FORMS IN
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BEFORE PASSING OVER OR JUST NORTH OF US
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE NIGHT. CATEGORICAL POPS FOR WEDS/WEDS EVENING BEFORE THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH...THEN JUST LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...MAINLY EAST OF THE CITY. RAINFALL EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY
ON THE MODERATE SIDE WITH MINOR URBAN FLOODING POSSIBLE. FOR
THURSDAY...A STRONG FETCH OFF OF LAKE ERIE COULD BRING A RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWER TO THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE CWA THURSDAY MORNING.

BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR WEDS THRU THURS. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET PUSHES
THROUGH THE EASTERN ZONES WEDS AFTN/EVE...BUT STRONG GUSTS WILL
PROBABLY HAVE A TOUGH TIME MIXING DOWN THROUGH AN INVERSION.
STRONGER GUSTS MAY BE REALIZED DURING THURSDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
COURTESY OF BETTER MIXING. MARGINAL ADVISORY CRITERIA GUSTS COULD BE
POSSIBLE WEDS AFTN THRU THURS. TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE
ABOVE AVERAGE. HIGHS ON WEDS IN THE 50S...AND WITH A MODERATE WSW
FLOW AND PARTIAL SUNSHINE ON THURSDAY...HIGH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 40S
EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND CLOSER TO
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE AREA FOR THIS WEEKEND AND DEPARTS EARLY
IN THE NEW WEEK.

CIGS WILL VARY BETWEEN SCT-BKN 2500-3500 FT AS MOISTURE REMAINS
TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION. BEST CHANCES FOR VFR CIGS WILL OCCUR
FROM AROUND 15Z-22Z TODAY. INCREASING CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD BKN-
OVC MVFR CIGS 2500-3000 FT TONIGHT.

N TO NE WINDS AT 6-8 KT TODAY WILL BECOME LGT/VRB LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH TONIGHT.

LIGHT SNOW AND/OR FLURRIES POSSIBLE FOR KGON/KISP AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SUNDAY...MVFR CIGS...WITH LIGHT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE FOR
CITY/COASTAL TERMINALS. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS.
.MON...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN E-SE FLOW. CHC OF RAIN.
.MON NIGHT-TUE...IFR LIKELY AT TIMES IN RAIN...CIGS AND VSBYS. E-SE
WINDS 10-20 KT.
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...HIGH IMPACT EVENT POSSIBLE...IFR LIKELY WITH
HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY SE WINDS 25KT+ SHIFTING TO SW LATE WED.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE WATERS...CAN EXPECT NORTH WINDS 10
KT OR LESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH SEAS GENERALLY 1-2 FT ON
THE OCEAN OR 1 FT OR LESS ON ALL OTHER WATERS.

EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ON MONDAY AS LOW PRES PASSES SOUTH OF THE
WATERS EARLY IN THE NEW WEEK. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDS DEVELOP ON
TUESDAY AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS. ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC AREA AND TRACKS NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THAT LOW RAPIDLY DEEPENS OVER CANADA ON THURSDAY...
ALLOWING THE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN OVER THE WATERS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND THEN GALES ARE
LIKELY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO IMPACTS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AROUND A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE IS POSSIBLE MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AS LOW PRES PASSES SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND.
NO HYDROLOGICAL IMPACTS EXPECTED.

RAIN ON WED/WED NIGHT MAY AVERAGE 1-2 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION.
MINOR URBAN FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...MPS
HYDROLOGY...JC











000
FXUS61 KBOX 201000
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
500 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM
EAST TO WEST LATER TODAY INTO SUNDAY.  THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE
IMMEDIATE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST...WHERE IT SHOULD BECOME MILD
ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH
OF NEW ENGLAND...BRINGING ANOTHER PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION. A MUCH
STRONGER STORM PASSING WEST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING HEAVY
RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS AND COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS TO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. DRY BUT VERY WINDY CONDITIONS
FOLLOW FOR CHRISTMAS DAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL NOON TODAY/...

430 AM UPDATE...

AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE HAS ALLOWED WINDS JUST OFF THE GROUND TO
BECOME EASTERLY.  THIS WAS ALLOWING LOW CLOUDS TO BACK INTO
SOUTHEAST MA/RI EARLY THIS MORNING.  EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE
WITH LOW CLOUDS CONTINUING TO GRADUALLY WORK FURTHER WEST...BUT M.
SUNNY SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL THIS MORNING IN NORTHWEST MA.
MEANWHILE...SOME OCEAN EFFECT FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS PLYMOUTH COUNTY AND ONTO THE CAPE/ISLANDS THIS
MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /NOON TODAY THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

INTERESTING MESOSCALE SETUP AS AN INVERTED TROUGH COMBINES WITH SOME
OCEAN ENHANCEMENT.  APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL ALLOW FOR
EASTERLY FLOW JUST OFF THE GROUND.  THIS COMBINED WITH NORTHEAST
SURFACE WINDS WILL ALLOW LOW LEVEL OF THE ATMOSPHERE TO MOISTEN.
SOUNDINGS ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND BECOME SATURATED ALL THE WAY UP
TO THE -9C LAYER JUST ABOVE 850 MB.  THIS IS FAVORABLE FOR SOME
DECENT SNOWGROWTH...ITS JUST LOWER IN THE ATMOSPHERE THAN WE
TYPICALLY SEE WITH MORE SYNOPTIC SNOW EVENTS.  WHILE THIS IS NOT A
TRUE OCEAN EFFECT EVENT...DELTA T VALUES FROM THE MIXED LAYER TO THE
OCEAN ARE AROUND 15C.  THEREFORE...EXPECT SOME OCEAN ENHANCEMENT.

TIMING:

WHILE FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST NEW
ENGLAND THIS MORNING.  THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL  PRECIPITATION SHOULD
OVERSPREAD PLYMOUTH COUNTY AS WELL AS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS THIS
AFTERNOON.  GIVEN EASTERLY FLOW JUST OFF THE GROUND...EXPECT SNOW
SHOWERS TO OVERSPREAD MOST OF EASTERN NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING AS
LOW LEVELS MOISTEN.  IN FACT...SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS AFFECT EVEN OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES.

PTYPE:

MAINLY SNOW FOR ALL BUT PORTIONS OF COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY AND ONTO
THE CAPE/ISLANDS.  A SUBTLE COASTAL FRONT LOOKS TO SETUP ACROSS
SOUTHEAST COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY.  PTYPE WILL BE SNOW TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THIS REGION...BUT ENOUGH MILD AIR SHOULD COME IN OFF
THE OCEAN FOR A CHANGE TO RAIN SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THIS REGION.
NOT EXPECTING THE POSITION OF THIS SUBTLE BOUNDARY TO CHANGE MUCH
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

SNOW ACCUMULATIONS:

WE ARE GENERALLY LOOKING AT A COATING TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION.  THE MAIN FOCUS FOR 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MA...AWAY FROM THE SOUTHEAST PLYMOUTH COUNTY
COAST.  ALSO...THE WORCESTER HILLS INTO NORTHWEST RHODE ISLAND MIGHT
BE ANOTHER AREA AS A RESULT OF THE SUBTLE UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE
WIND.  YOU CAN ACTUALLY SEE THAT IN SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION
MODEL GUIDANCE.

THERE IS ONE AREA TO WATCH IN PARTICULAR...FROM NORTHWEST PLYMOUTH
COUNTY AND INTO NORFOLK COUNTY BASED ON MESOSCALE MODELS AND PATTERN
RECOGNITION.  WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE VERY LOCALIZED 3 TO 4
INCH SNOW AMOUNTS...GIVEN SOME OCEAN ENHANCEMENT AND A LITTLE FOCUS
ON THE COASTAL FRONT.  WILL TRY TO HIGHLIGHT THIS AREA IN OUR
SNOWFALL AND PROBABILISTIC  GRAPHICS.

SUNDAY...

SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE DURING THE MORNING WITH MOIST
EASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS. AGAIN...PTYPE WILL BE SNOW EXCEPT
ACROSS SOUTHEAST PLYMOUTH COUNTY/CAPE AND ISLANDS WHERE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL PROBABLY BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN SHOWERS.  WHILE SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON...EXPECT A
DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL LIFT
WEAKENS.  IT WILL REMAIN CLOUDY THOUGH WITH TEMPS IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* INVERTED TROUGH WILL BRING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO THE MASS EAST
  COASTLINE MONDAY INTO TUES MORNING.
* WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MON NIGHT/TUESDAY COULD BRING WINTRY
  MIX TO INTERIOR
* ANOMALOUS SYSTEM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING HEAVY
  RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS AROUND CHRISTMAS
  EVE

OVERVIEW...

OVERALL 00Z GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT SYNOPTICALLY WITH ISSUES ON
TIMING AND SMALLER SCALE FEATURES. IT REMAINS EVIDENT THAT AN
AMPLIFIED MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND PCPN FOCUSING LEAD SURFACE
LOW/FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL STEADILY PROGRESS TO THE EAST-CENTRAL U.S.
TUE AS EMBEDDED IMPULSES DIG TO THE LEE OF AN AMPLIFIED ERN
PACIFIC/WEST COAST RIDGE ALOFT. THE SUPPORTING AND INCREASINGLY
NEGATIVE-TILT TROUGH ALOFT WORKS OVER THE ERN US AND OUT THROUGH THE
NERN STATES INTO DAYS 4/5 WED/THU.  MODELS/ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON THIS AMPLIFIED PATTERN AND THE MOST RECENT
GEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOW GOOD CORRELATION TO NEXT THURSDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL BEGIN TO
EXIT BY MONDAY. AT THE SURFACE APPEARS ANOTHER INVERTED
TROUGH/ONSHORE FLOW WILL YIELD TO PRECIP ALONG THE MASS COASTLINE ON
MONDAY. ASIDE FROM THIS QUICK MESOSCALE EVENT THE MAIN FOCUS IS ON
THE LONGWAVE DIGGING TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WHICH WILL PUSH A
FEW SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE FLOW. FIRST ONE DEVELOPS A WEAK WAVE
MOVING TOWARDS THE REGION LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE LOCATION/STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM BUT
APPEARS THAT THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF A SNOW/WINTRY MIX IN THE
INTERIOR. AS THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS AN ANOMALOUS LOW OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WILL DEVELOP A SECONDARY LOW JUST WEST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
...PER ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. STILL A SOME SPREAD BUT IF THIS DOUBLE LOW
DOES DEVELOP THEN THE RAIN AND WIND ASPECT OF THE SYSTEM
INCREASES...DETAILS BELOW. STILL NEED TO WORK OUT MINOR DETAILS WITH
THIS PARTICULAR SYSTEM BUT WITH 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS AWAY AND
GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THIS SYSTEM WILL IMPACT
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

DETAILS...

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFFSHORE AS
DIGGING TROUGH BEGINS TO SET-UP OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. APPEARS
ANOTHER MESO-SCALE INVERTED TROUGH WILL SET UP ON MONDAY AND LAST
INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE MASS EAST COASTLINE THANKS TO ONSHORE
EASTERLY FLOW. APPEARS THE COLUMN WILL SATURATE PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
AND SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW QPF MAKING IT
ONSHORE DURING THIS TIME FRAME. HOWEVER THE EC IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER
AND KEEP THE BULK OF THE PRECIP JUST OFFSHORE. ADD A CHANCE OF POPS
DUE TO THE NAM/GFS MODEL CONTINUITY.

BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY A SOUTHERN BRANCH STORM SYSTEM
FORMS ALONG THE SE COAST AND TAKES A TRACK OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST. THIS SYSTEM GETS CAUGHT UP WITH THE OVERALL LARGE SCALE
AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER AIR PATTERN. THERE IS DECENT WARM
ADVECTION WITH COLD AIR DAMMING ACROSS THE INTERIOR. BIGGEST
QUESTION WILL BE IS THERE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR PRECIP DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. IF PRECIP OVERRUNS THEN COULD SEE FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE
ACROSS THE INTERIOR LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. DURING THE DAY
ON TUESDAY...GOOD AMOUNT OF WARM AIR WILL PUSH SURFACE TEMPS ABOVE
FREEZING ALLOWING FOR ANY PRECIP TO BE MORE OF THE LIQUID VARIETY
AHEAD OF THE CHRISTMAS EVE STORM. HOWEVER GUIDANCE IS ALWAYS TOO
FAST IN SCOURING TEMPS OUT ESP ACROSS THE CT VALLEY SO WE WILL NEED
TO MONITOR THIS CLOSELY...ESP DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND THE HIGH IN
EASTERN CANADA.

WE COULD ALSO SEE SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS ON TUESDAY. SEE
BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SYSTEM LOW CONFIDENCE
ON DETAILS.

STRONG ANOMALOUS SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE GREAT
LAKES...DEVELOPING A POTENTIAL SECONDARY SURFACE LOW JUST WEST OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. STILL A LOT OF DETAILS TO WORK OUT AS THIS
SYSTEM IS STILL 5 DAYS AWAY...HOWEVER ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW
STRONG AGREEMENT SO HAVE INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT A POTENT STORM
WILL OCCUR. LATEST 00Z GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT MOST PRECIP WILL BE
LIQUID WITH A DEEP SUBTROPICAL CONNECTION BACK ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO...PW ANOMALIES FORECAST TO RISE BETWEEN +3 TO +4. CURRENT
PWATS ARE PROGGED ABOVE 1.6 INCHES SO HAVE CONTINUED THE CATEGORICAL
POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE...IN FACT WE MAY BE
CLOSE AT BREAKING RECORD HIGH TEMPS IF TEMPS WARM TO 60F OR ABOVE ON
CHRISTMAS EVE.  AS THE SYSTEM WRAPS UP INTO CANADA...COLD AIR
ADVECTION SHOULD CIRCULATE AROUND AND BEGIN A TRANSITION FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST IN TURNING P-TYPE TO SNOW. HOWEVER LATEST
GUIDANCE DOES SHOW A QUICK MOVING DRY SLOT SO SNOWFALL WILL STRUGGLE
DUE TO LACK OF MOISTURE.

THIS SYSTEM IS QUITE POTENT SO WE WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL
HAZARDS. CURRENTLY THINK THAT WE COULD POSSIBLE URBAN FLOODING
ISSUES AS MODELS PROGGED WELL OVER 1.5 INCHES OF QPF. LATEST EC EVEN
SHOWS 2.5 INCHES OF QPF IS POSSIBLE. THE GEFS SHOW A MOISTURE FLUX
AT 850 MB BEING 4 TO 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS AWAY...AND WITH THE
TROPICAL CONNECTION AND STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW COULD SEE HIGHER
AMOUNTS DUE TO TOPOGRAPHY ENHANCEMENTS. RAIN FALL RECORDS MAY FALL
IF EVERYTHING FALLS INTO PLACE.

ALSO BELIEVE THAT WE MAY SEE SOME WIND ISSUES WITH THIS SYSTEM.
GUIDANCE RIGHT NOW IS SHOWING A 45 TO 55 KT JET AT 925 MB...HOWEVER
IT WILL BE HARD TO BREAK THE INVERSION WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW.
RIGHT NOW BELIEVE THAT WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED BUT IF THIS
SYSTEM STRENGTHEN EVEN MORE SO A STRONGER JET IS POSSIBLE.

CONTINUED THE MENTIONED OF ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE FORECAST PER PREV
FORECASTER SUGGESTION. BELIEVE IT COULD BE POSSIBLE AS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR...WITH THE ANOMALOUS JET AND
SHOWALTERS CLOSE TO ZERO.

FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

ONCE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO SOUTHERN CANADA...EXPECT A RATHER
FAST UPPER W FLOW IN PLACE. MAY SEE LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWERS BUT TEMPS
WILL FALL BACK CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

430 AM UPDATE...

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE INTERIOR
THIS AFTERNOON.  SCATTERED PRECIPITATION WILL OVERSPREAD
SOUTHEAST MA/CAPE/ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON.  PTYPE MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS
NORTHWEST OF THE SOUTHEAST PLYMOUTH COUNTY COAST AND RAIN SHOWERS
SOUTHEAST OF THAT REGION. LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE JUST
INLAND FROM THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST...WHERE PTYPE IS SNOW.

TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MVFR CONDITIONS DOMINATE
IN LOWER CLOUDS AND SCATTERED PRECIPITATION.  LOCALIZED IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN SNOW SHOWERS.
PRECIPITATION AFFECTS MAINLY EASTERN NEW ENGLAND BUT STILL SOME
SCATTERED ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. PTYPE MAINLY SNOW
SHOWERS NORTHWEST OF THE SOUTHEAST PLYMOUTH COUNTY COAST...WITH RAIN
SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THAT REGION.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  SNOW SHOWERS MAY ARRIVE
TOWARDS 00Z THIS EVENING.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT MOSTLY
VFR...ISOLATED MVFR ALONG THE MASS EAST COASTLINE IN RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS WILL
BE DETERIORATING AS HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ISO THUNDER AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS MOVE INTO THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS IN CIGS AND VSBYS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS QUEBEC WILL RESULT IN PERSISTENT NORTHEAST
WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  WIND GUSTS UP TO 20
KNOTS WITH SEAS BETWEEN 2 AND 4 FEET ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST
WATERS...SO NO HEADLINES PLANNED. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY THAT A
BRIEF SURGE OF NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS WITH MARGINAL 5
FOOT SEAS COULD AFFECT OUR NORTHERN WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUN
MORNING...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ISSUE ANY HEADLINES AT THIS
POINT.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. CONTINUOUS NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP SEAS CHOPPY.
LINGERING NORTHEAST SWELL MAY BUMP SEAS ABOVE 5FT ESP ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN WATERS. SCA MAY BE NEEDED...BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...NE WINDS WILL INCREASE...GUSTING TO 30 KT
TUE THEN SHIFT TO SE GUSTING TO 30-35 KT WED...HIGHEST ON THE OUTER
WATERS. SEAS BUILD UP TO 7-11 FT BY WED. GALES WILL BE NEEDED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL OCCUR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. BREAKING
IT DOWN...ON TUESDAY HIGH TIDE AT BOSTON WILL BE 11.6 FT. THERE WILL
BE ONSHORE FLOW DURING THIS HIGH TIDE ALLOWING FOR MINOR SPLASHOVER.
IF WIND GUSTS INCREASE THEN COULD POSSIBLE SEE MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING.

ON WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL SWITCH TO A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DURING
THE DAY AND INCREASE QUICKLY FROM APPROACHING SYSTEM AND DESCENT
PRESSURE FALLS. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE IN BOSTON IS 11.7 FT
AND WITH ANY STRENGTH ON THE EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL PUSH THE TIDE
OVER. RIGHT NOW BELIEVE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE
EAST COASTLINE. HOWEVER WEDNESDAY EVENING...THE WIND GOES IN A MORE
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AND HIGH TIDE IN PROVIDENCE WILL BE 5.2 FT. 925
MB LLJ STRENGTHENS TO 50-60 KTS WHICH COULD PUSH A DESCENT SURGE UP
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST DURING THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. THINKING THAT
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING COULD OCCUR BUT CANNOT RULE OUT MODERATE
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...ESP IF LLJ STRENGTHENS EVEN MORE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...FRANK/DUNTEN
MARINE...FRANK/DUNTEN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 201000
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
500 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM
EAST TO WEST LATER TODAY INTO SUNDAY.  THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE
IMMEDIATE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST...WHERE IT SHOULD BECOME MILD
ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH
OF NEW ENGLAND...BRINGING ANOTHER PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION. A MUCH
STRONGER STORM PASSING WEST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING HEAVY
RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS AND COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS TO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. DRY BUT VERY WINDY CONDITIONS
FOLLOW FOR CHRISTMAS DAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL NOON TODAY/...

430 AM UPDATE...

AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE HAS ALLOWED WINDS JUST OFF THE GROUND TO
BECOME EASTERLY.  THIS WAS ALLOWING LOW CLOUDS TO BACK INTO
SOUTHEAST MA/RI EARLY THIS MORNING.  EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE
WITH LOW CLOUDS CONTINUING TO GRADUALLY WORK FURTHER WEST...BUT M.
SUNNY SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL THIS MORNING IN NORTHWEST MA.
MEANWHILE...SOME OCEAN EFFECT FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS PLYMOUTH COUNTY AND ONTO THE CAPE/ISLANDS THIS
MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /NOON TODAY THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

INTERESTING MESOSCALE SETUP AS AN INVERTED TROUGH COMBINES WITH SOME
OCEAN ENHANCEMENT.  APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL ALLOW FOR
EASTERLY FLOW JUST OFF THE GROUND.  THIS COMBINED WITH NORTHEAST
SURFACE WINDS WILL ALLOW LOW LEVEL OF THE ATMOSPHERE TO MOISTEN.
SOUNDINGS ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND BECOME SATURATED ALL THE WAY UP
TO THE -9C LAYER JUST ABOVE 850 MB.  THIS IS FAVORABLE FOR SOME
DECENT SNOWGROWTH...ITS JUST LOWER IN THE ATMOSPHERE THAN WE
TYPICALLY SEE WITH MORE SYNOPTIC SNOW EVENTS.  WHILE THIS IS NOT A
TRUE OCEAN EFFECT EVENT...DELTA T VALUES FROM THE MIXED LAYER TO THE
OCEAN ARE AROUND 15C.  THEREFORE...EXPECT SOME OCEAN ENHANCEMENT.

TIMING:

WHILE FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST NEW
ENGLAND THIS MORNING.  THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL  PRECIPITATION SHOULD
OVERSPREAD PLYMOUTH COUNTY AS WELL AS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS THIS
AFTERNOON.  GIVEN EASTERLY FLOW JUST OFF THE GROUND...EXPECT SNOW
SHOWERS TO OVERSPREAD MOST OF EASTERN NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING AS
LOW LEVELS MOISTEN.  IN FACT...SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS AFFECT EVEN OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES.

PTYPE:

MAINLY SNOW FOR ALL BUT PORTIONS OF COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY AND ONTO
THE CAPE/ISLANDS.  A SUBTLE COASTAL FRONT LOOKS TO SETUP ACROSS
SOUTHEAST COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY.  PTYPE WILL BE SNOW TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THIS REGION...BUT ENOUGH MILD AIR SHOULD COME IN OFF
THE OCEAN FOR A CHANGE TO RAIN SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THIS REGION.
NOT EXPECTING THE POSITION OF THIS SUBTLE BOUNDARY TO CHANGE MUCH
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

SNOW ACCUMULATIONS:

WE ARE GENERALLY LOOKING AT A COATING TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION.  THE MAIN FOCUS FOR 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MA...AWAY FROM THE SOUTHEAST PLYMOUTH COUNTY
COAST.  ALSO...THE WORCESTER HILLS INTO NORTHWEST RHODE ISLAND MIGHT
BE ANOTHER AREA AS A RESULT OF THE SUBTLE UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE
WIND.  YOU CAN ACTUALLY SEE THAT IN SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION
MODEL GUIDANCE.

THERE IS ONE AREA TO WATCH IN PARTICULAR...FROM NORTHWEST PLYMOUTH
COUNTY AND INTO NORFOLK COUNTY BASED ON MESOSCALE MODELS AND PATTERN
RECOGNITION.  WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE VERY LOCALIZED 3 TO 4
INCH SNOW AMOUNTS...GIVEN SOME OCEAN ENHANCEMENT AND A LITTLE FOCUS
ON THE COASTAL FRONT.  WILL TRY TO HIGHLIGHT THIS AREA IN OUR
SNOWFALL AND PROBABILISTIC  GRAPHICS.

SUNDAY...

SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE DURING THE MORNING WITH MOIST
EASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS. AGAIN...PTYPE WILL BE SNOW EXCEPT
ACROSS SOUTHEAST PLYMOUTH COUNTY/CAPE AND ISLANDS WHERE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL PROBABLY BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN SHOWERS.  WHILE SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON...EXPECT A
DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL LIFT
WEAKENS.  IT WILL REMAIN CLOUDY THOUGH WITH TEMPS IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* INVERTED TROUGH WILL BRING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO THE MASS EAST
  COASTLINE MONDAY INTO TUES MORNING.
* WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MON NIGHT/TUESDAY COULD BRING WINTRY
  MIX TO INTERIOR
* ANOMALOUS SYSTEM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING HEAVY
  RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS AROUND CHRISTMAS
  EVE

OVERVIEW...

OVERALL 00Z GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT SYNOPTICALLY WITH ISSUES ON
TIMING AND SMALLER SCALE FEATURES. IT REMAINS EVIDENT THAT AN
AMPLIFIED MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND PCPN FOCUSING LEAD SURFACE
LOW/FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL STEADILY PROGRESS TO THE EAST-CENTRAL U.S.
TUE AS EMBEDDED IMPULSES DIG TO THE LEE OF AN AMPLIFIED ERN
PACIFIC/WEST COAST RIDGE ALOFT. THE SUPPORTING AND INCREASINGLY
NEGATIVE-TILT TROUGH ALOFT WORKS OVER THE ERN US AND OUT THROUGH THE
NERN STATES INTO DAYS 4/5 WED/THU.  MODELS/ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON THIS AMPLIFIED PATTERN AND THE MOST RECENT
GEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOW GOOD CORRELATION TO NEXT THURSDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL BEGIN TO
EXIT BY MONDAY. AT THE SURFACE APPEARS ANOTHER INVERTED
TROUGH/ONSHORE FLOW WILL YIELD TO PRECIP ALONG THE MASS COASTLINE ON
MONDAY. ASIDE FROM THIS QUICK MESOSCALE EVENT THE MAIN FOCUS IS ON
THE LONGWAVE DIGGING TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WHICH WILL PUSH A
FEW SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE FLOW. FIRST ONE DEVELOPS A WEAK WAVE
MOVING TOWARDS THE REGION LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE LOCATION/STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM BUT
APPEARS THAT THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF A SNOW/WINTRY MIX IN THE
INTERIOR. AS THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS AN ANOMALOUS LOW OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WILL DEVELOP A SECONDARY LOW JUST WEST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
...PER ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. STILL A SOME SPREAD BUT IF THIS DOUBLE LOW
DOES DEVELOP THEN THE RAIN AND WIND ASPECT OF THE SYSTEM
INCREASES...DETAILS BELOW. STILL NEED TO WORK OUT MINOR DETAILS WITH
THIS PARTICULAR SYSTEM BUT WITH 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS AWAY AND
GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THIS SYSTEM WILL IMPACT
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

DETAILS...

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFFSHORE AS
DIGGING TROUGH BEGINS TO SET-UP OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. APPEARS
ANOTHER MESO-SCALE INVERTED TROUGH WILL SET UP ON MONDAY AND LAST
INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE MASS EAST COASTLINE THANKS TO ONSHORE
EASTERLY FLOW. APPEARS THE COLUMN WILL SATURATE PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
AND SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW QPF MAKING IT
ONSHORE DURING THIS TIME FRAME. HOWEVER THE EC IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER
AND KEEP THE BULK OF THE PRECIP JUST OFFSHORE. ADD A CHANCE OF POPS
DUE TO THE NAM/GFS MODEL CONTINUITY.

BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY A SOUTHERN BRANCH STORM SYSTEM
FORMS ALONG THE SE COAST AND TAKES A TRACK OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST. THIS SYSTEM GETS CAUGHT UP WITH THE OVERALL LARGE SCALE
AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER AIR PATTERN. THERE IS DECENT WARM
ADVECTION WITH COLD AIR DAMMING ACROSS THE INTERIOR. BIGGEST
QUESTION WILL BE IS THERE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR PRECIP DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. IF PRECIP OVERRUNS THEN COULD SEE FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE
ACROSS THE INTERIOR LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. DURING THE DAY
ON TUESDAY...GOOD AMOUNT OF WARM AIR WILL PUSH SURFACE TEMPS ABOVE
FREEZING ALLOWING FOR ANY PRECIP TO BE MORE OF THE LIQUID VARIETY
AHEAD OF THE CHRISTMAS EVE STORM. HOWEVER GUIDANCE IS ALWAYS TOO
FAST IN SCOURING TEMPS OUT ESP ACROSS THE CT VALLEY SO WE WILL NEED
TO MONITOR THIS CLOSELY...ESP DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND THE HIGH IN
EASTERN CANADA.

WE COULD ALSO SEE SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS ON TUESDAY. SEE
BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SYSTEM LOW CONFIDENCE
ON DETAILS.

STRONG ANOMALOUS SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE GREAT
LAKES...DEVELOPING A POTENTIAL SECONDARY SURFACE LOW JUST WEST OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. STILL A LOT OF DETAILS TO WORK OUT AS THIS
SYSTEM IS STILL 5 DAYS AWAY...HOWEVER ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW
STRONG AGREEMENT SO HAVE INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT A POTENT STORM
WILL OCCUR. LATEST 00Z GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT MOST PRECIP WILL BE
LIQUID WITH A DEEP SUBTROPICAL CONNECTION BACK ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO...PW ANOMALIES FORECAST TO RISE BETWEEN +3 TO +4. CURRENT
PWATS ARE PROGGED ABOVE 1.6 INCHES SO HAVE CONTINUED THE CATEGORICAL
POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE...IN FACT WE MAY BE
CLOSE AT BREAKING RECORD HIGH TEMPS IF TEMPS WARM TO 60F OR ABOVE ON
CHRISTMAS EVE.  AS THE SYSTEM WRAPS UP INTO CANADA...COLD AIR
ADVECTION SHOULD CIRCULATE AROUND AND BEGIN A TRANSITION FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST IN TURNING P-TYPE TO SNOW. HOWEVER LATEST
GUIDANCE DOES SHOW A QUICK MOVING DRY SLOT SO SNOWFALL WILL STRUGGLE
DUE TO LACK OF MOISTURE.

THIS SYSTEM IS QUITE POTENT SO WE WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL
HAZARDS. CURRENTLY THINK THAT WE COULD POSSIBLE URBAN FLOODING
ISSUES AS MODELS PROGGED WELL OVER 1.5 INCHES OF QPF. LATEST EC EVEN
SHOWS 2.5 INCHES OF QPF IS POSSIBLE. THE GEFS SHOW A MOISTURE FLUX
AT 850 MB BEING 4 TO 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS AWAY...AND WITH THE
TROPICAL CONNECTION AND STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW COULD SEE HIGHER
AMOUNTS DUE TO TOPOGRAPHY ENHANCEMENTS. RAIN FALL RECORDS MAY FALL
IF EVERYTHING FALLS INTO PLACE.

ALSO BELIEVE THAT WE MAY SEE SOME WIND ISSUES WITH THIS SYSTEM.
GUIDANCE RIGHT NOW IS SHOWING A 45 TO 55 KT JET AT 925 MB...HOWEVER
IT WILL BE HARD TO BREAK THE INVERSION WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW.
RIGHT NOW BELIEVE THAT WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED BUT IF THIS
SYSTEM STRENGTHEN EVEN MORE SO A STRONGER JET IS POSSIBLE.

CONTINUED THE MENTIONED OF ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE FORECAST PER PREV
FORECASTER SUGGESTION. BELIEVE IT COULD BE POSSIBLE AS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR...WITH THE ANOMALOUS JET AND
SHOWALTERS CLOSE TO ZERO.

FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

ONCE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO SOUTHERN CANADA...EXPECT A RATHER
FAST UPPER W FLOW IN PLACE. MAY SEE LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWERS BUT TEMPS
WILL FALL BACK CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

430 AM UPDATE...

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE INTERIOR
THIS AFTERNOON.  SCATTERED PRECIPITATION WILL OVERSPREAD
SOUTHEAST MA/CAPE/ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON.  PTYPE MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS
NORTHWEST OF THE SOUTHEAST PLYMOUTH COUNTY COAST AND RAIN SHOWERS
SOUTHEAST OF THAT REGION. LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE JUST
INLAND FROM THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST...WHERE PTYPE IS SNOW.

TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MVFR CONDITIONS DOMINATE
IN LOWER CLOUDS AND SCATTERED PRECIPITATION.  LOCALIZED IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN SNOW SHOWERS.
PRECIPITATION AFFECTS MAINLY EASTERN NEW ENGLAND BUT STILL SOME
SCATTERED ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. PTYPE MAINLY SNOW
SHOWERS NORTHWEST OF THE SOUTHEAST PLYMOUTH COUNTY COAST...WITH RAIN
SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THAT REGION.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  SNOW SHOWERS MAY ARRIVE
TOWARDS 00Z THIS EVENING.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT MOSTLY
VFR...ISOLATED MVFR ALONG THE MASS EAST COASTLINE IN RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS WILL
BE DETERIORATING AS HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ISO THUNDER AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS MOVE INTO THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS IN CIGS AND VSBYS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS QUEBEC WILL RESULT IN PERSISTENT NORTHEAST
WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  WIND GUSTS UP TO 20
KNOTS WITH SEAS BETWEEN 2 AND 4 FEET ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST
WATERS...SO NO HEADLINES PLANNED. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY THAT A
BRIEF SURGE OF NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS WITH MARGINAL 5
FOOT SEAS COULD AFFECT OUR NORTHERN WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUN
MORNING...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ISSUE ANY HEADLINES AT THIS
POINT.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. CONTINUOUS NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP SEAS CHOPPY.
LINGERING NORTHEAST SWELL MAY BUMP SEAS ABOVE 5FT ESP ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN WATERS. SCA MAY BE NEEDED...BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...NE WINDS WILL INCREASE...GUSTING TO 30 KT
TUE THEN SHIFT TO SE GUSTING TO 30-35 KT WED...HIGHEST ON THE OUTER
WATERS. SEAS BUILD UP TO 7-11 FT BY WED. GALES WILL BE NEEDED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL OCCUR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. BREAKING
IT DOWN...ON TUESDAY HIGH TIDE AT BOSTON WILL BE 11.6 FT. THERE WILL
BE ONSHORE FLOW DURING THIS HIGH TIDE ALLOWING FOR MINOR SPLASHOVER.
IF WIND GUSTS INCREASE THEN COULD POSSIBLE SEE MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING.

ON WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL SWITCH TO A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DURING
THE DAY AND INCREASE QUICKLY FROM APPROACHING SYSTEM AND DESCENT
PRESSURE FALLS. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE IN BOSTON IS 11.7 FT
AND WITH ANY STRENGTH ON THE EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL PUSH THE TIDE
OVER. RIGHT NOW BELIEVE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE
EAST COASTLINE. HOWEVER WEDNESDAY EVENING...THE WIND GOES IN A MORE
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AND HIGH TIDE IN PROVIDENCE WILL BE 5.2 FT. 925
MB LLJ STRENGTHENS TO 50-60 KTS WHICH COULD PUSH A DESCENT SURGE UP
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST DURING THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. THINKING THAT
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING COULD OCCUR BUT CANNOT RULE OUT MODERATE
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...ESP IF LLJ STRENGTHENS EVEN MORE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...FRANK/DUNTEN
MARINE...FRANK/DUNTEN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KALY 200947
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
447 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST AT THE SURFACE
FOR THE WEEKEND...SLIDING OFFSHORE MONDAY. WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND AS WELL WITH
AREAS OF CLOUDS.  MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY A STORM WILL ORGANIZE
IN THE GREAT PLAINS WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF PRECIPITATION AND
BRING MILDER TEMPERATURES TO OUR REGION. AS IT MOVES INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY RAIN WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD AND
TEMPERATURES EVEN MILDER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE IN SE CANADA GRADUALLY BUILDING SOUTH INTO OUR REGION
AND CLOUD COVER SLOWLY ERODING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...WITH THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...SOUTHERN VT AND
THE BERKSHIRES CLEARING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.  CLOUDS
SHOULD BREAK UP ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY INCLUDING THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT THROUGH THIS MORNING...BUT MAY STAY CLOUDY IN THE
SCHOHARIE VALLEY...EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT
INTO THIS AFTERNOON.  SOME BREAK UP OF THE CLOUDS POSSIBLE IN THOSE
AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL SPREAD ACROSS OUR REGION
MIDDAY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH THE
PROXIMITY TO THE LOW LEVEL RIDGING...SO MIXING WILL BE LIMITED TO
SOME DEGREE. HIGHS TODAY IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

UPPER IMPULSE CURRENTLY IN THE OH VALLEY SHOULD BRING SOME
CLOUDINESS TO ALL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THERE IS VERY
LITTLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FEATURE BUT THERE ARE
SOME INDICATIONS THAT SOME PATCHY SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD OCCUR
EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WITH A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER ENERGY. INDICATING ISOLATED
SNOW SHOWERS IN THOSE AREAS BUT JUST MOSTLY CLOUDY IN MOST OTHER
AREAS TONIGHT.  LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S...MID TEENS TO
AROUND 20 IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MUCH AGREEMENT AMONG THE MDL SUITE (NAM/GFS/ECMWF) DURING THE
PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THE ENTIRE PACKAGE IS SLOWER THAN 12UTC PACKAGE.
THE GEM WAS NOT AVBL.

SUNDAY SFC HIGH PRESSURE COVERS MUCH OF EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WHILE
AT 500HPA GENERALLY A FAST SORTA ZONAL FLOW IS IN PLACE. HWVR THERE
ARE TWO SHORT WVS OVER THE NE USA...AND INVERSIONS REMAIN IN
PLACE RESULTING IN CONSIDERABLE MID AND LOWER CLOUDS. SUN NT THE
500 HPA TROF DEPARTS THE NE WITH SFC HIGH CENTERED FM QB TO ATLC
SEABOARD. WITH MODEST 500HPA RIDGING BUILDING OVER SEABOARD CLOUDS
SHOULD DCR WITH FAIR CONDS.

MONDAY A SERIES OF 500HPA SHORT WVS CARVE A MAJOR FULL LATITUDE
TROF IN THE GRT PLAINS ALONG WITH SFC CYCLOGEN OVER MN/WI.
MEANWHILE FURTHER EAST 500HPA RIDGING ENSUES ALONG THE E
SEABOARD. THIS 500HPA TROF IS WEAKER THAN PVS RUNS DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD. MEANWHILE SFC HIGH ONLY SLOWLY RETREATS OFFSHORE. AS SUCH
WK SE FLOW SETS UP AND MANY AREAS MAY SE SOME SUN PART OF MONDAY.

BUT BY LATE MON AFTN WK ISENTROPIC LIFTS IS DEVELOPING OVER MUCH OF
THE EAST WITH VEERING FLOW W/HT...CSTL FRONT IS SETTING UP ALONG THE
ATLC COAST...AND CLOUDS WILL INCR AND THICKEN. MON INTO TUES NT
500HPA PATTERN BECOMES GREATLY AMPLIFIED WITH SHARPENING RIDGE ALONG
E COAST...AND FULL LAT TROF IN MISS VLY CUTTING OFF. S-SE FLOW
COVERS MUCH OF THE EAST WITH MILDER AIR STREAMING N...HWVR
CSTL/WMFNT REMAINS S OF RGN...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTS TO INCR.

RESULT WILL BE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND INCRG CHC OF PCPN. THREAT OF
PCPN WILL ONLY SLOWLY INCR TO SLGT CHC MON NT AND CHC TUE. ANY
PCPN MON NT INTO TUE WILL BE SPOTTY AND LT...--SHSN..ZL...--SHRA. BY
MID MRNG TUES IT SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ONLY LIQ PCPN.

THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A SFC WV ALONG THE CSTL FRONT TUES SUG A
HIGHER PROB OF -SHRA MAINLY S PRTNS OF FCA MON NT AND TUE...BUT
AMNTS ARE STILL QUITE LT. TEMPS WILL BE NR NORMALS MON...INCRG TO
10 DEG ABV NORMALS TUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ALL GUID IS POINTING TO A VERY DYNAMIC SYSTEM IMPACTING THE EAST
CHRISTMAS EVE AND DAY...MAKING FOR A VERY BUMPY AND WET RIDE FOR
SANTA.

BY WED MRNG FULL LAT 500HPA TROF IN MISS VLY...AND POWERFUL JET
ROUNDS ITS BASE...DRIVING IT EAST...AND NEGATIVELY TILTING IT. RAPID
CYCLOGEN ENSUES IN OHIO VALLEY...AS LOW DEEPENS AND RACES N INTO
GRTLKS AND CANADA. 500HPA TROF SWINGS EAST AND LLVL JET
INTENSIFIES DRAWING VERY MILD AIR MASS AND RICH ATLC AND GULF
MOISTURE NWRD. SHRA WILL INCR IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DURING THE
DAY WED...AS SYSTEMS CDFNT PUSHES E...TO BUF BY EVNG ALB BY 06UTC
AND OFFSHORE BY CHRISTMAS MRNG. CDFNT MAY BE ACCOMP BY HVY FRONTAL
RAIN BAND AND MAYBE ISOLD TSTM. TEMPS WILL INCR DURING THE DAY
WITH HIGHS REACHING NEAR 50. QPF IN ECMWF ON THE ORDER OF 1.5 TO
3.0 INCHES....AND GFS 0.5 TO 2.0 INCHES.

SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE RAPIDLY CHRISTMAS DAY TWRD HUDSON`S
BAY...WITH STRONG CAA INTO FCA ON VERY STRONG NW-W WINDS. TEMPS
WILL PROBABLY FALL DURING THE DAY. LK EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
DVLP INTO W FCA...AND WITH CUT OFF LIFTING NE...NW FLOW -SHSN OVER
ADRNDKS A GOOD BET.

CHRISTMAS NT THIS SYSTEM RACES N INTO N CANADA AND -SHSN END ACROSS
THE N PRTNS OF RGN. THU NT AND FRI 500HPA RIDGING REASSERTS ITSELF
OVER THE EAST...AS WELL AS AT THE SFC. FRI INTO FRI NT SHOULD
REMAIN FAIR...HWVR ANOTHER STRONG TROF IS MVNG INTO THE GRTLKS FRI
NT...WITH MILDER CONDS AHEAD OF IT...AND POSSIBLE PCPN ARRIVING BY
FRI NT OR SAT.

WHILE THERE ARES SOME TIMING AND PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES BTWN THE GFS
AND ECMWF ON DAY 7 HPC TAKES THE MIDDLE ROAD ON DAY 7. UNTIL DAY
7 ECMWF/GFS IN PRETTY MUCH IN AGREEMENT. WILL POPULATE WITH HPC
FROM MID SHIFT.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE IN FROM SE ONTARIO THROUGH
THE DAY.A WEAK UPPER IMPULSE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE FROM KALB-KPSF NORTHWARD TO KGFL
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...BEFORE A GRADUAL TREND TOWARD
SCATTERED CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY AT KGFL...BUT KALB COULD SEE SOME
BREAK UP OF THE CLOUDS BY 11Z. AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES LATER THIS MORNING AND TOWARD MIDDAY...ANY SCATTERED
VARIABLE BROKEN CLOUDS BETWEEN 2500-3500 FEET SHOULD BECOME
PREDOMINANTLY SCATTERED WHILE HIGHER CLOUDS...AROUND 5000-10000
FEET BECOME BROKEN.

NW TO NE WINDS OF 5-10 KTS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNIGN HOURS. EXPECT VERY LIGHT N TO N WINDS OF LESS
THAN 5 KTS IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN...BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KT THROUGH
THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN...SLEET...DZ.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY DEFINITE RA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...RA.
CHRISTMAS DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ANTICIPATED INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY/CHRISTMAS AS A LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
ARE LIKELY...WITH POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING AND SIGNIFICANT
WITHIN BANK RISES OF LARGER STEM RIVERS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...NAS
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER








000
FXUS61 KALY 200947
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
447 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST AT THE SURFACE
FOR THE WEEKEND...SLIDING OFFSHORE MONDAY. WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND AS WELL WITH
AREAS OF CLOUDS.  MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY A STORM WILL ORGANIZE
IN THE GREAT PLAINS WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF PRECIPITATION AND
BRING MILDER TEMPERATURES TO OUR REGION. AS IT MOVES INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY RAIN WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD AND
TEMPERATURES EVEN MILDER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE IN SE CANADA GRADUALLY BUILDING SOUTH INTO OUR REGION
AND CLOUD COVER SLOWLY ERODING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...WITH THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...SOUTHERN VT AND
THE BERKSHIRES CLEARING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.  CLOUDS
SHOULD BREAK UP ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY INCLUDING THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT THROUGH THIS MORNING...BUT MAY STAY CLOUDY IN THE
SCHOHARIE VALLEY...EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT
INTO THIS AFTERNOON.  SOME BREAK UP OF THE CLOUDS POSSIBLE IN THOSE
AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL SPREAD ACROSS OUR REGION
MIDDAY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH THE
PROXIMITY TO THE LOW LEVEL RIDGING...SO MIXING WILL BE LIMITED TO
SOME DEGREE. HIGHS TODAY IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

UPPER IMPULSE CURRENTLY IN THE OH VALLEY SHOULD BRING SOME
CLOUDINESS TO ALL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THERE IS VERY
LITTLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FEATURE BUT THERE ARE
SOME INDICATIONS THAT SOME PATCHY SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD OCCUR
EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WITH A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER ENERGY. INDICATING ISOLATED
SNOW SHOWERS IN THOSE AREAS BUT JUST MOSTLY CLOUDY IN MOST OTHER
AREAS TONIGHT.  LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S...MID TEENS TO
AROUND 20 IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MUCH AGREEMENT AMONG THE MDL SUITE (NAM/GFS/ECMWF) DURING THE
PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THE ENTIRE PACKAGE IS SLOWER THAN 12UTC PACKAGE.
THE GEM WAS NOT AVBL.

SUNDAY SFC HIGH PRESSURE COVERS MUCH OF EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WHILE
AT 500HPA GENERALLY A FAST SORTA ZONAL FLOW IS IN PLACE. HWVR THERE
ARE TWO SHORT WVS OVER THE NE USA...AND INVERSIONS REMAIN IN
PLACE RESULTING IN CONSIDERABLE MID AND LOWER CLOUDS. SUN NT THE
500 HPA TROF DEPARTS THE NE WITH SFC HIGH CENTERED FM QB TO ATLC
SEABOARD. WITH MODEST 500HPA RIDGING BUILDING OVER SEABOARD CLOUDS
SHOULD DCR WITH FAIR CONDS.

MONDAY A SERIES OF 500HPA SHORT WVS CARVE A MAJOR FULL LATITUDE
TROF IN THE GRT PLAINS ALONG WITH SFC CYCLOGEN OVER MN/WI.
MEANWHILE FURTHER EAST 500HPA RIDGING ENSUES ALONG THE E
SEABOARD. THIS 500HPA TROF IS WEAKER THAN PVS RUNS DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD. MEANWHILE SFC HIGH ONLY SLOWLY RETREATS OFFSHORE. AS SUCH
WK SE FLOW SETS UP AND MANY AREAS MAY SE SOME SUN PART OF MONDAY.

BUT BY LATE MON AFTN WK ISENTROPIC LIFTS IS DEVELOPING OVER MUCH OF
THE EAST WITH VEERING FLOW W/HT...CSTL FRONT IS SETTING UP ALONG THE
ATLC COAST...AND CLOUDS WILL INCR AND THICKEN. MON INTO TUES NT
500HPA PATTERN BECOMES GREATLY AMPLIFIED WITH SHARPENING RIDGE ALONG
E COAST...AND FULL LAT TROF IN MISS VLY CUTTING OFF. S-SE FLOW
COVERS MUCH OF THE EAST WITH MILDER AIR STREAMING N...HWVR
CSTL/WMFNT REMAINS S OF RGN...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTS TO INCR.

RESULT WILL BE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND INCRG CHC OF PCPN. THREAT OF
PCPN WILL ONLY SLOWLY INCR TO SLGT CHC MON NT AND CHC TUE. ANY
PCPN MON NT INTO TUE WILL BE SPOTTY AND LT...--SHSN..ZL...--SHRA. BY
MID MRNG TUES IT SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ONLY LIQ PCPN.

THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A SFC WV ALONG THE CSTL FRONT TUES SUG A
HIGHER PROB OF -SHRA MAINLY S PRTNS OF FCA MON NT AND TUE...BUT
AMNTS ARE STILL QUITE LT. TEMPS WILL BE NR NORMALS MON...INCRG TO
10 DEG ABV NORMALS TUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ALL GUID IS POINTING TO A VERY DYNAMIC SYSTEM IMPACTING THE EAST
CHRISTMAS EVE AND DAY...MAKING FOR A VERY BUMPY AND WET RIDE FOR
SANTA.

BY WED MRNG FULL LAT 500HPA TROF IN MISS VLY...AND POWERFUL JET
ROUNDS ITS BASE...DRIVING IT EAST...AND NEGATIVELY TILTING IT. RAPID
CYCLOGEN ENSUES IN OHIO VALLEY...AS LOW DEEPENS AND RACES N INTO
GRTLKS AND CANADA. 500HPA TROF SWINGS EAST AND LLVL JET
INTENSIFIES DRAWING VERY MILD AIR MASS AND RICH ATLC AND GULF
MOISTURE NWRD. SHRA WILL INCR IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DURING THE
DAY WED...AS SYSTEMS CDFNT PUSHES E...TO BUF BY EVNG ALB BY 06UTC
AND OFFSHORE BY CHRISTMAS MRNG. CDFNT MAY BE ACCOMP BY HVY FRONTAL
RAIN BAND AND MAYBE ISOLD TSTM. TEMPS WILL INCR DURING THE DAY
WITH HIGHS REACHING NEAR 50. QPF IN ECMWF ON THE ORDER OF 1.5 TO
3.0 INCHES....AND GFS 0.5 TO 2.0 INCHES.

SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE RAPIDLY CHRISTMAS DAY TWRD HUDSON`S
BAY...WITH STRONG CAA INTO FCA ON VERY STRONG NW-W WINDS. TEMPS
WILL PROBABLY FALL DURING THE DAY. LK EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
DVLP INTO W FCA...AND WITH CUT OFF LIFTING NE...NW FLOW -SHSN OVER
ADRNDKS A GOOD BET.

CHRISTMAS NT THIS SYSTEM RACES N INTO N CANADA AND -SHSN END ACROSS
THE N PRTNS OF RGN. THU NT AND FRI 500HPA RIDGING REASSERTS ITSELF
OVER THE EAST...AS WELL AS AT THE SFC. FRI INTO FRI NT SHOULD
REMAIN FAIR...HWVR ANOTHER STRONG TROF IS MVNG INTO THE GRTLKS FRI
NT...WITH MILDER CONDS AHEAD OF IT...AND POSSIBLE PCPN ARRIVING BY
FRI NT OR SAT.

WHILE THERE ARES SOME TIMING AND PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES BTWN THE GFS
AND ECMWF ON DAY 7 HPC TAKES THE MIDDLE ROAD ON DAY 7. UNTIL DAY
7 ECMWF/GFS IN PRETTY MUCH IN AGREEMENT. WILL POPULATE WITH HPC
FROM MID SHIFT.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE IN FROM SE ONTARIO THROUGH
THE DAY.A WEAK UPPER IMPULSE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE FROM KALB-KPSF NORTHWARD TO KGFL
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...BEFORE A GRADUAL TREND TOWARD
SCATTERED CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY AT KGFL...BUT KALB COULD SEE SOME
BREAK UP OF THE CLOUDS BY 11Z. AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES LATER THIS MORNING AND TOWARD MIDDAY...ANY SCATTERED
VARIABLE BROKEN CLOUDS BETWEEN 2500-3500 FEET SHOULD BECOME
PREDOMINANTLY SCATTERED WHILE HIGHER CLOUDS...AROUND 5000-10000
FEET BECOME BROKEN.

NW TO NE WINDS OF 5-10 KTS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNIGN HOURS. EXPECT VERY LIGHT N TO N WINDS OF LESS
THAN 5 KTS IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN...BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KT THROUGH
THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN...SLEET...DZ.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY DEFINITE RA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...RA.
CHRISTMAS DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ANTICIPATED INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY/CHRISTMAS AS A LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
ARE LIKELY...WITH POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING AND SIGNIFICANT
WITHIN BANK RISES OF LARGER STEM RIVERS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...NAS
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER








000
FXUS61 KALY 200947
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
447 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST AT THE SURFACE
FOR THE WEEKEND...SLIDING OFFSHORE MONDAY. WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND AS WELL WITH
AREAS OF CLOUDS.  MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY A STORM WILL ORGANIZE
IN THE GREAT PLAINS WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF PRECIPITATION AND
BRING MILDER TEMPERATURES TO OUR REGION. AS IT MOVES INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY RAIN WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD AND
TEMPERATURES EVEN MILDER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE IN SE CANADA GRADUALLY BUILDING SOUTH INTO OUR REGION
AND CLOUD COVER SLOWLY ERODING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...WITH THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...SOUTHERN VT AND
THE BERKSHIRES CLEARING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.  CLOUDS
SHOULD BREA