Home > Products > State Listing > Connecticut Data
Latest:
 AFDBOX |  AFDOKX |  AFDALY |
  [top]

000
FXUS61 KBOX 310159
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
959 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A QUIET NIGHT OF WEATHER PRIOR TO A CLIPPER-LOW SWEEPING SOUTH OF
THE REGION BRINGING A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW TO SOUTHERN-MOST
PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND. WARMER TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE END OF
THIS WEEK THEN A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM MAY APPROACH LATE THIS
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...
MAY SEE A FEW OF THE REMNANT SHRA/SHSN ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD
FRONT STILL JUST TO THE W SPILL INTO THE E SLOPES OF THE
BERKSHIRES AND PORTIONS OF THE CT VALLEY UNTIL MAINLY ABOUT 1 AM.
AT WHICH POINT DRIER AIR AND THE LACK OF ADDITIONAL SUPPORT SHOULD
BRING MOST OF THESE TO AN END. FORECAST ON TRACK OTHERWISE. MAIN
ADJUSTMENTS ARE TO BRING POPS UP TO PEED WITH THIS THINKING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

QUIET WEATHER. SCATTERED RAIN / SNOW SHOWERS CONCLUDE WITH ONLY
REMNANT MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS REMAINING. BREEZY W-WINDS WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. COLD AIR ADVECTION IN WAKE
OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION INTO THIS EVENING.
EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DROP TO AROUND THE LOW-30S...NEAR-
SEASONABLE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...

DEPENDENCE OF THE FORECAST UPON THE TRACK OF THE CLIPPER DISTURBANCE
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE BROADER CYCLONIC FLOW AND ITS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE REFLECTION IN AREAS OF FAVORABLE BAROCLINICITY / THERMAL
PACKING. THE CLOSER TO THE S NEW ENGLAND SHORELINE...THE GREATER THE
IMPACT. WENT WITH A CONSENSUS BLEND OF THE FORECAST GUIDANCE NOTING
THE EC / NAM ALONG THE N-END OF THE ENVELOP WITH ALL OTHER FORECAST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A SWING AND A MISS.

FORECAST GUIDANCE CONSENSUS HAS CLIPPER LOW TRACK OFF THE DELMARVA
COAST ALONG A W-E ZONAL-FLOW. OVER-RUNNING PRECIPITATION APPEARS
LARGELY ABSENT THOUGH W-E SETUP...DISCREET OUTCOMES APPARENT WITH
FRONTOGENETICAL BANDING ALONG THE PARENT WARM FRONT TO THE CLIPPER
LOW AROUND H7-8. IN ADDITION BETTER MOISTURE AND QG-FORCING MAINTAIN
S OF NEW ENGLAND PARENT WITH THE LOW WITH CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE.

SO FEEL THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE. ANY ACTIVITY
WILL BE LIGHT MOSTLY S OF THE MASS-PIKE. SUBSEQUENTLY WITH DRY LOW-
LEVELS AT ONSET FEEL WETBULBING / DYNAMIC COOLING OF LOW-LEVELS WILL
BE MINIMAL AGAINST HIGHS THAT ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE LOW- TO
MID-40S WITH DAYTIME HEATING PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF THE STORM WHICH
IS EXPECTED TO BE LATE. YET PROCEEDING INTO A EVENING ALONG WITH AN
ISALLOBARIC RESPONSE OF WINDS THAT WILL FUNNEL OUT OF THE N ABSENT
OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE...FEEL PRECIP-TYPE WILL VARY BETWEEN RAIN /
SNOW FROM WHICH AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION.
IF ANY...A TRACE AT MOST ON LINGERING SNOWPACK / ELEVATED SURFACES.

GREATEST IMPACTS WILL BE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S-COAST AND ISLANDS.
MAJORITY OF THE IMPACTS WILL BE DUE TO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WITH
SNOW...IF ANYTHING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MODERATING MORE SPRING-LIKE TEMPS LATE THIS WEEK
* INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND

DISCUSSION...

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE BROAD SCALE WITH SOME EXPECTED
DETAIL DIFFERENCES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS WITH ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE CENTERS/COLD FRONTS MOVING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
THIS WILL BRING SEVERAL CHANCES OF RAIN TO THE REGION THROUGHOUT
THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BRINGING
DRY WEATHER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO QUEBEC. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL BUT ONLY BY A FEW DEGREES. EXCELLENT MIXING...
COUPLED WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL LIKELY RESULT IN GUSTY
WINDS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...TWO SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND THEIR
ATTENDANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES...BRINGING A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. AT THIS POINT...LOOKING AT MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS WITH
AROUND AN INCH OF QPF. THERE ARE STILL DETAIL DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS FOR THIS PERIOD SO QPF AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE.

WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE FRIDAY WHEN THEY WILL ACTUALLY
CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL...POSSIBLY GIVING US OUR FIRST 60+ DEGREE DAY OF
THE SPRING. TEMPERATURES FALL SATURDAY...DROPPING BACK BELOW NORMAL
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT TRAILS THE LAST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES
WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY APRIL.

MONDAY...ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GREAT
LAKES...PUSHING HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE. TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO
MODERATE ONCE AGAIN...CREEPING BACK TOWARDS NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

00Z UPDATE...

LINGERING SCT -SHRA/-SHSN CONCLUDING TOWARDS 02Z. VFR. COLD FRONT
SWEEPS ACROSS THE TERMINALS LATE INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEHIND
WHICH WINDS VEER W/NW. GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...

STORM SWEEPING S OF NEW ENGLAND. LOWEST CONDITIONS ACROSS S-MOST
NEW ENGLAND WITH POTENTIAL IFR WITH -SN. OTHERWISE LOW-END VFR /
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS MOSTLY S OF THE CT-RI-MA BORDER. N/NW WINDS
INCREASING LATE WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS FOR COASTAL TERMINALS.

KBOS TAF...GUSTY W-WINDS OVERNIGHT.

KBDL TAF...QUIET WEATHER PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY IN RAIN SHOWERS. IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY NIGHT IN FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

COLD FRONT SWEEPING THE WATERS DURING THE EVENING HRS. SW-WINDS
BACKING NW DURING WHICH TIME GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
SEAS ABOVE 5 FEET MAINLY ON THE OUTER WATERS...THOUGH COULD BE
SOME LINGERING ISSUES FOR RI / BI SOUND.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...
10 PM UPDATE...
HAVE EXTENDED TIMING OF E INTRA-COASTAL WATERS SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES AS RECENT TREND SUGGESTS STRONGER WIND GUSTS WITH THE
FROPA LATER TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. WENT THROUGH 12Z FOR
NOW TO ALLOW FOR BETTER ASSESSMENT OF OVERNIGHT MODEL TRENDS.
ALSO...WILL BE ADDING NARRAGANSETT BAY AND BOSTON HARBOR WITH THIS
UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

STORM SYSTEM SWEEPS S OF NEW ENGLAND. N/NW FLOW...WHICH WILL
INCREASE TOWARDS THE LATER HALF OF THE PERIOD. WILL BE A LULL IN
WIND AND WAVE ACTION DURING WHICH TIME A RAIN / SNOW MIX WILL BE
AN ISSUE MOSTLY FOR THE S-WATERS WITH POTENTIAL VISIBILITY IMPACT.
THEN WAVES INCREASE IN EXCESS OF 5-FEET WITH ENHANCING N/NW-FLOW.

SMALL-CRAFT HEADLINES CONTINUE FOR THE OUTER WATERS THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD...WHILE INNER-WATERS EXPIRE OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE WATERS. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST DIMINISHING
THROUGH THE PERIOD. OCCASIONAL 25 KT GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE
OUTER WATERS AT TIMES.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...SEAS INCREASE AS TWO SEPARATE LOW
PRESSURE CENTERS AND THEIR COLD FRONTS APPROACH THE WATERS.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 15 TO 20 KTS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY
MORNING. GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY FOR BOTH WINDS AND SEAS AT LEAST ON THE
OUTER WATERS...IF NOT ON THE INTERIOR BAYS AND SOUNDS AT TIMES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ230>234-236-
     251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...DOODY/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...RLG/SIPPRELL
MARINE...RLG/SIPPRELL




000
FXUS61 KBOX 310159
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
959 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A QUIET NIGHT OF WEATHER PRIOR TO A CLIPPER-LOW SWEEPING SOUTH OF
THE REGION BRINGING A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW TO SOUTHERN-MOST
PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND. WARMER TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE END OF
THIS WEEK THEN A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM MAY APPROACH LATE THIS
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...
MAY SEE A FEW OF THE REMNANT SHRA/SHSN ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD
FRONT STILL JUST TO THE W SPILL INTO THE E SLOPES OF THE
BERKSHIRES AND PORTIONS OF THE CT VALLEY UNTIL MAINLY ABOUT 1 AM.
AT WHICH POINT DRIER AIR AND THE LACK OF ADDITIONAL SUPPORT SHOULD
BRING MOST OF THESE TO AN END. FORECAST ON TRACK OTHERWISE. MAIN
ADJUSTMENTS ARE TO BRING POPS UP TO PEED WITH THIS THINKING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

QUIET WEATHER. SCATTERED RAIN / SNOW SHOWERS CONCLUDE WITH ONLY
REMNANT MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS REMAINING. BREEZY W-WINDS WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. COLD AIR ADVECTION IN WAKE
OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION INTO THIS EVENING.
EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DROP TO AROUND THE LOW-30S...NEAR-
SEASONABLE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...

DEPENDENCE OF THE FORECAST UPON THE TRACK OF THE CLIPPER DISTURBANCE
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE BROADER CYCLONIC FLOW AND ITS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE REFLECTION IN AREAS OF FAVORABLE BAROCLINICITY / THERMAL
PACKING. THE CLOSER TO THE S NEW ENGLAND SHORELINE...THE GREATER THE
IMPACT. WENT WITH A CONSENSUS BLEND OF THE FORECAST GUIDANCE NOTING
THE EC / NAM ALONG THE N-END OF THE ENVELOP WITH ALL OTHER FORECAST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A SWING AND A MISS.

FORECAST GUIDANCE CONSENSUS HAS CLIPPER LOW TRACK OFF THE DELMARVA
COAST ALONG A W-E ZONAL-FLOW. OVER-RUNNING PRECIPITATION APPEARS
LARGELY ABSENT THOUGH W-E SETUP...DISCREET OUTCOMES APPARENT WITH
FRONTOGENETICAL BANDING ALONG THE PARENT WARM FRONT TO THE CLIPPER
LOW AROUND H7-8. IN ADDITION BETTER MOISTURE AND QG-FORCING MAINTAIN
S OF NEW ENGLAND PARENT WITH THE LOW WITH CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE.

SO FEEL THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE. ANY ACTIVITY
WILL BE LIGHT MOSTLY S OF THE MASS-PIKE. SUBSEQUENTLY WITH DRY LOW-
LEVELS AT ONSET FEEL WETBULBING / DYNAMIC COOLING OF LOW-LEVELS WILL
BE MINIMAL AGAINST HIGHS THAT ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE LOW- TO
MID-40S WITH DAYTIME HEATING PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF THE STORM WHICH
IS EXPECTED TO BE LATE. YET PROCEEDING INTO A EVENING ALONG WITH AN
ISALLOBARIC RESPONSE OF WINDS THAT WILL FUNNEL OUT OF THE N ABSENT
OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE...FEEL PRECIP-TYPE WILL VARY BETWEEN RAIN /
SNOW FROM WHICH AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION.
IF ANY...A TRACE AT MOST ON LINGERING SNOWPACK / ELEVATED SURFACES.

GREATEST IMPACTS WILL BE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S-COAST AND ISLANDS.
MAJORITY OF THE IMPACTS WILL BE DUE TO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WITH
SNOW...IF ANYTHING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MODERATING MORE SPRING-LIKE TEMPS LATE THIS WEEK
* INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND

DISCUSSION...

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE BROAD SCALE WITH SOME EXPECTED
DETAIL DIFFERENCES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS WITH ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE CENTERS/COLD FRONTS MOVING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
THIS WILL BRING SEVERAL CHANCES OF RAIN TO THE REGION THROUGHOUT
THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BRINGING
DRY WEATHER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO QUEBEC. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL BUT ONLY BY A FEW DEGREES. EXCELLENT MIXING...
COUPLED WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL LIKELY RESULT IN GUSTY
WINDS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...TWO SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND THEIR
ATTENDANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES...BRINGING A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. AT THIS POINT...LOOKING AT MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS WITH
AROUND AN INCH OF QPF. THERE ARE STILL DETAIL DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS FOR THIS PERIOD SO QPF AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE.

WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE FRIDAY WHEN THEY WILL ACTUALLY
CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL...POSSIBLY GIVING US OUR FIRST 60+ DEGREE DAY OF
THE SPRING. TEMPERATURES FALL SATURDAY...DROPPING BACK BELOW NORMAL
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT TRAILS THE LAST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES
WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY APRIL.

MONDAY...ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GREAT
LAKES...PUSHING HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE. TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO
MODERATE ONCE AGAIN...CREEPING BACK TOWARDS NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

00Z UPDATE...

LINGERING SCT -SHRA/-SHSN CONCLUDING TOWARDS 02Z. VFR. COLD FRONT
SWEEPS ACROSS THE TERMINALS LATE INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEHIND
WHICH WINDS VEER W/NW. GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...

STORM SWEEPING S OF NEW ENGLAND. LOWEST CONDITIONS ACROSS S-MOST
NEW ENGLAND WITH POTENTIAL IFR WITH -SN. OTHERWISE LOW-END VFR /
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS MOSTLY S OF THE CT-RI-MA BORDER. N/NW WINDS
INCREASING LATE WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS FOR COASTAL TERMINALS.

KBOS TAF...GUSTY W-WINDS OVERNIGHT.

KBDL TAF...QUIET WEATHER PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY IN RAIN SHOWERS. IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY NIGHT IN FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

COLD FRONT SWEEPING THE WATERS DURING THE EVENING HRS. SW-WINDS
BACKING NW DURING WHICH TIME GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
SEAS ABOVE 5 FEET MAINLY ON THE OUTER WATERS...THOUGH COULD BE
SOME LINGERING ISSUES FOR RI / BI SOUND.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...
10 PM UPDATE...
HAVE EXTENDED TIMING OF E INTRA-COASTAL WATERS SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES AS RECENT TREND SUGGESTS STRONGER WIND GUSTS WITH THE
FROPA LATER TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. WENT THROUGH 12Z FOR
NOW TO ALLOW FOR BETTER ASSESSMENT OF OVERNIGHT MODEL TRENDS.
ALSO...WILL BE ADDING NARRAGANSETT BAY AND BOSTON HARBOR WITH THIS
UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

STORM SYSTEM SWEEPS S OF NEW ENGLAND. N/NW FLOW...WHICH WILL
INCREASE TOWARDS THE LATER HALF OF THE PERIOD. WILL BE A LULL IN
WIND AND WAVE ACTION DURING WHICH TIME A RAIN / SNOW MIX WILL BE
AN ISSUE MOSTLY FOR THE S-WATERS WITH POTENTIAL VISIBILITY IMPACT.
THEN WAVES INCREASE IN EXCESS OF 5-FEET WITH ENHANCING N/NW-FLOW.

SMALL-CRAFT HEADLINES CONTINUE FOR THE OUTER WATERS THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD...WHILE INNER-WATERS EXPIRE OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE WATERS. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST DIMINISHING
THROUGH THE PERIOD. OCCASIONAL 25 KT GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE
OUTER WATERS AT TIMES.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...SEAS INCREASE AS TWO SEPARATE LOW
PRESSURE CENTERS AND THEIR COLD FRONTS APPROACH THE WATERS.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 15 TO 20 KTS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY
MORNING. GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY FOR BOTH WINDS AND SEAS AT LEAST ON THE
OUTER WATERS...IF NOT ON THE INTERIOR BAYS AND SOUNDS AT TIMES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ230>234-236-
     251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...DOODY/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...RLG/SIPPRELL
MARINE...RLG/SIPPRELL




000
FXUS61 KBOX 310159
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
959 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A QUIET NIGHT OF WEATHER PRIOR TO A CLIPPER-LOW SWEEPING SOUTH OF
THE REGION BRINGING A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW TO SOUTHERN-MOST
PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND. WARMER TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE END OF
THIS WEEK THEN A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM MAY APPROACH LATE THIS
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...
MAY SEE A FEW OF THE REMNANT SHRA/SHSN ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD
FRONT STILL JUST TO THE W SPILL INTO THE E SLOPES OF THE
BERKSHIRES AND PORTIONS OF THE CT VALLEY UNTIL MAINLY ABOUT 1 AM.
AT WHICH POINT DRIER AIR AND THE LACK OF ADDITIONAL SUPPORT SHOULD
BRING MOST OF THESE TO AN END. FORECAST ON TRACK OTHERWISE. MAIN
ADJUSTMENTS ARE TO BRING POPS UP TO PEED WITH THIS THINKING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

QUIET WEATHER. SCATTERED RAIN / SNOW SHOWERS CONCLUDE WITH ONLY
REMNANT MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS REMAINING. BREEZY W-WINDS WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. COLD AIR ADVECTION IN WAKE
OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION INTO THIS EVENING.
EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DROP TO AROUND THE LOW-30S...NEAR-
SEASONABLE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...

DEPENDENCE OF THE FORECAST UPON THE TRACK OF THE CLIPPER DISTURBANCE
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE BROADER CYCLONIC FLOW AND ITS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE REFLECTION IN AREAS OF FAVORABLE BAROCLINICITY / THERMAL
PACKING. THE CLOSER TO THE S NEW ENGLAND SHORELINE...THE GREATER THE
IMPACT. WENT WITH A CONSENSUS BLEND OF THE FORECAST GUIDANCE NOTING
THE EC / NAM ALONG THE N-END OF THE ENVELOP WITH ALL OTHER FORECAST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A SWING AND A MISS.

FORECAST GUIDANCE CONSENSUS HAS CLIPPER LOW TRACK OFF THE DELMARVA
COAST ALONG A W-E ZONAL-FLOW. OVER-RUNNING PRECIPITATION APPEARS
LARGELY ABSENT THOUGH W-E SETUP...DISCREET OUTCOMES APPARENT WITH
FRONTOGENETICAL BANDING ALONG THE PARENT WARM FRONT TO THE CLIPPER
LOW AROUND H7-8. IN ADDITION BETTER MOISTURE AND QG-FORCING MAINTAIN
S OF NEW ENGLAND PARENT WITH THE LOW WITH CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE.

SO FEEL THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE. ANY ACTIVITY
WILL BE LIGHT MOSTLY S OF THE MASS-PIKE. SUBSEQUENTLY WITH DRY LOW-
LEVELS AT ONSET FEEL WETBULBING / DYNAMIC COOLING OF LOW-LEVELS WILL
BE MINIMAL AGAINST HIGHS THAT ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE LOW- TO
MID-40S WITH DAYTIME HEATING PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF THE STORM WHICH
IS EXPECTED TO BE LATE. YET PROCEEDING INTO A EVENING ALONG WITH AN
ISALLOBARIC RESPONSE OF WINDS THAT WILL FUNNEL OUT OF THE N ABSENT
OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE...FEEL PRECIP-TYPE WILL VARY BETWEEN RAIN /
SNOW FROM WHICH AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION.
IF ANY...A TRACE AT MOST ON LINGERING SNOWPACK / ELEVATED SURFACES.

GREATEST IMPACTS WILL BE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S-COAST AND ISLANDS.
MAJORITY OF THE IMPACTS WILL BE DUE TO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WITH
SNOW...IF ANYTHING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MODERATING MORE SPRING-LIKE TEMPS LATE THIS WEEK
* INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND

DISCUSSION...

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE BROAD SCALE WITH SOME EXPECTED
DETAIL DIFFERENCES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS WITH ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE CENTERS/COLD FRONTS MOVING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
THIS WILL BRING SEVERAL CHANCES OF RAIN TO THE REGION THROUGHOUT
THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BRINGING
DRY WEATHER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO QUEBEC. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL BUT ONLY BY A FEW DEGREES. EXCELLENT MIXING...
COUPLED WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL LIKELY RESULT IN GUSTY
WINDS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...TWO SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND THEIR
ATTENDANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES...BRINGING A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. AT THIS POINT...LOOKING AT MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS WITH
AROUND AN INCH OF QPF. THERE ARE STILL DETAIL DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS FOR THIS PERIOD SO QPF AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE.

WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE FRIDAY WHEN THEY WILL ACTUALLY
CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL...POSSIBLY GIVING US OUR FIRST 60+ DEGREE DAY OF
THE SPRING. TEMPERATURES FALL SATURDAY...DROPPING BACK BELOW NORMAL
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT TRAILS THE LAST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES
WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY APRIL.

MONDAY...ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GREAT
LAKES...PUSHING HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE. TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO
MODERATE ONCE AGAIN...CREEPING BACK TOWARDS NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

00Z UPDATE...

LINGERING SCT -SHRA/-SHSN CONCLUDING TOWARDS 02Z. VFR. COLD FRONT
SWEEPS ACROSS THE TERMINALS LATE INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEHIND
WHICH WINDS VEER W/NW. GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...

STORM SWEEPING S OF NEW ENGLAND. LOWEST CONDITIONS ACROSS S-MOST
NEW ENGLAND WITH POTENTIAL IFR WITH -SN. OTHERWISE LOW-END VFR /
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS MOSTLY S OF THE CT-RI-MA BORDER. N/NW WINDS
INCREASING LATE WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS FOR COASTAL TERMINALS.

KBOS TAF...GUSTY W-WINDS OVERNIGHT.

KBDL TAF...QUIET WEATHER PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY IN RAIN SHOWERS. IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY NIGHT IN FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

COLD FRONT SWEEPING THE WATERS DURING THE EVENING HRS. SW-WINDS
BACKING NW DURING WHICH TIME GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
SEAS ABOVE 5 FEET MAINLY ON THE OUTER WATERS...THOUGH COULD BE
SOME LINGERING ISSUES FOR RI / BI SOUND.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...
10 PM UPDATE...
HAVE EXTENDED TIMING OF E INTRA-COASTAL WATERS SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES AS RECENT TREND SUGGESTS STRONGER WIND GUSTS WITH THE
FROPA LATER TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. WENT THROUGH 12Z FOR
NOW TO ALLOW FOR BETTER ASSESSMENT OF OVERNIGHT MODEL TRENDS.
ALSO...WILL BE ADDING NARRAGANSETT BAY AND BOSTON HARBOR WITH THIS
UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

STORM SYSTEM SWEEPS S OF NEW ENGLAND. N/NW FLOW...WHICH WILL
INCREASE TOWARDS THE LATER HALF OF THE PERIOD. WILL BE A LULL IN
WIND AND WAVE ACTION DURING WHICH TIME A RAIN / SNOW MIX WILL BE
AN ISSUE MOSTLY FOR THE S-WATERS WITH POTENTIAL VISIBILITY IMPACT.
THEN WAVES INCREASE IN EXCESS OF 5-FEET WITH ENHANCING N/NW-FLOW.

SMALL-CRAFT HEADLINES CONTINUE FOR THE OUTER WATERS THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD...WHILE INNER-WATERS EXPIRE OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE WATERS. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST DIMINISHING
THROUGH THE PERIOD. OCCASIONAL 25 KT GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE
OUTER WATERS AT TIMES.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...SEAS INCREASE AS TWO SEPARATE LOW
PRESSURE CENTERS AND THEIR COLD FRONTS APPROACH THE WATERS.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 15 TO 20 KTS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY
MORNING. GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY FOR BOTH WINDS AND SEAS AT LEAST ON THE
OUTER WATERS...IF NOT ON THE INTERIOR BAYS AND SOUNDS AT TIMES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ230>234-236-
     251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...DOODY/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...RLG/SIPPRELL
MARINE...RLG/SIPPRELL



000
FXUS61 KBOX 310159
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
959 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A QUIET NIGHT OF WEATHER PRIOR TO A CLIPPER-LOW SWEEPING SOUTH OF
THE REGION BRINGING A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW TO SOUTHERN-MOST
PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND. WARMER TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE END OF
THIS WEEK THEN A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM MAY APPROACH LATE THIS
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...
MAY SEE A FEW OF THE REMNANT SHRA/SHSN ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD
FRONT STILL JUST TO THE W SPILL INTO THE E SLOPES OF THE
BERKSHIRES AND PORTIONS OF THE CT VALLEY UNTIL MAINLY ABOUT 1 AM.
AT WHICH POINT DRIER AIR AND THE LACK OF ADDITIONAL SUPPORT SHOULD
BRING MOST OF THESE TO AN END. FORECAST ON TRACK OTHERWISE. MAIN
ADJUSTMENTS ARE TO BRING POPS UP TO PEED WITH THIS THINKING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

QUIET WEATHER. SCATTERED RAIN / SNOW SHOWERS CONCLUDE WITH ONLY
REMNANT MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS REMAINING. BREEZY W-WINDS WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. COLD AIR ADVECTION IN WAKE
OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION INTO THIS EVENING.
EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DROP TO AROUND THE LOW-30S...NEAR-
SEASONABLE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...

DEPENDENCE OF THE FORECAST UPON THE TRACK OF THE CLIPPER DISTURBANCE
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE BROADER CYCLONIC FLOW AND ITS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE REFLECTION IN AREAS OF FAVORABLE BAROCLINICITY / THERMAL
PACKING. THE CLOSER TO THE S NEW ENGLAND SHORELINE...THE GREATER THE
IMPACT. WENT WITH A CONSENSUS BLEND OF THE FORECAST GUIDANCE NOTING
THE EC / NAM ALONG THE N-END OF THE ENVELOP WITH ALL OTHER FORECAST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A SWING AND A MISS.

FORECAST GUIDANCE CONSENSUS HAS CLIPPER LOW TRACK OFF THE DELMARVA
COAST ALONG A W-E ZONAL-FLOW. OVER-RUNNING PRECIPITATION APPEARS
LARGELY ABSENT THOUGH W-E SETUP...DISCREET OUTCOMES APPARENT WITH
FRONTOGENETICAL BANDING ALONG THE PARENT WARM FRONT TO THE CLIPPER
LOW AROUND H7-8. IN ADDITION BETTER MOISTURE AND QG-FORCING MAINTAIN
S OF NEW ENGLAND PARENT WITH THE LOW WITH CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE.

SO FEEL THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE. ANY ACTIVITY
WILL BE LIGHT MOSTLY S OF THE MASS-PIKE. SUBSEQUENTLY WITH DRY LOW-
LEVELS AT ONSET FEEL WETBULBING / DYNAMIC COOLING OF LOW-LEVELS WILL
BE MINIMAL AGAINST HIGHS THAT ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE LOW- TO
MID-40S WITH DAYTIME HEATING PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF THE STORM WHICH
IS EXPECTED TO BE LATE. YET PROCEEDING INTO A EVENING ALONG WITH AN
ISALLOBARIC RESPONSE OF WINDS THAT WILL FUNNEL OUT OF THE N ABSENT
OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE...FEEL PRECIP-TYPE WILL VARY BETWEEN RAIN /
SNOW FROM WHICH AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION.
IF ANY...A TRACE AT MOST ON LINGERING SNOWPACK / ELEVATED SURFACES.

GREATEST IMPACTS WILL BE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S-COAST AND ISLANDS.
MAJORITY OF THE IMPACTS WILL BE DUE TO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WITH
SNOW...IF ANYTHING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MODERATING MORE SPRING-LIKE TEMPS LATE THIS WEEK
* INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND

DISCUSSION...

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE BROAD SCALE WITH SOME EXPECTED
DETAIL DIFFERENCES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS WITH ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE CENTERS/COLD FRONTS MOVING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
THIS WILL BRING SEVERAL CHANCES OF RAIN TO THE REGION THROUGHOUT
THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BRINGING
DRY WEATHER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO QUEBEC. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL BUT ONLY BY A FEW DEGREES. EXCELLENT MIXING...
COUPLED WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL LIKELY RESULT IN GUSTY
WINDS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...TWO SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND THEIR
ATTENDANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES...BRINGING A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. AT THIS POINT...LOOKING AT MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS WITH
AROUND AN INCH OF QPF. THERE ARE STILL DETAIL DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS FOR THIS PERIOD SO QPF AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE.

WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE FRIDAY WHEN THEY WILL ACTUALLY
CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL...POSSIBLY GIVING US OUR FIRST 60+ DEGREE DAY OF
THE SPRING. TEMPERATURES FALL SATURDAY...DROPPING BACK BELOW NORMAL
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT TRAILS THE LAST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES
WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY APRIL.

MONDAY...ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GREAT
LAKES...PUSHING HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE. TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO
MODERATE ONCE AGAIN...CREEPING BACK TOWARDS NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

00Z UPDATE...

LINGERING SCT -SHRA/-SHSN CONCLUDING TOWARDS 02Z. VFR. COLD FRONT
SWEEPS ACROSS THE TERMINALS LATE INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEHIND
WHICH WINDS VEER W/NW. GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...

STORM SWEEPING S OF NEW ENGLAND. LOWEST CONDITIONS ACROSS S-MOST
NEW ENGLAND WITH POTENTIAL IFR WITH -SN. OTHERWISE LOW-END VFR /
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS MOSTLY S OF THE CT-RI-MA BORDER. N/NW WINDS
INCREASING LATE WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS FOR COASTAL TERMINALS.

KBOS TAF...GUSTY W-WINDS OVERNIGHT.

KBDL TAF...QUIET WEATHER PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY IN RAIN SHOWERS. IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY NIGHT IN FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

COLD FRONT SWEEPING THE WATERS DURING THE EVENING HRS. SW-WINDS
BACKING NW DURING WHICH TIME GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
SEAS ABOVE 5 FEET MAINLY ON THE OUTER WATERS...THOUGH COULD BE
SOME LINGERING ISSUES FOR RI / BI SOUND.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...
10 PM UPDATE...
HAVE EXTENDED TIMING OF E INTRA-COASTAL WATERS SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES AS RECENT TREND SUGGESTS STRONGER WIND GUSTS WITH THE
FROPA LATER TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. WENT THROUGH 12Z FOR
NOW TO ALLOW FOR BETTER ASSESSMENT OF OVERNIGHT MODEL TRENDS.
ALSO...WILL BE ADDING NARRAGANSETT BAY AND BOSTON HARBOR WITH THIS
UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

STORM SYSTEM SWEEPS S OF NEW ENGLAND. N/NW FLOW...WHICH WILL
INCREASE TOWARDS THE LATER HALF OF THE PERIOD. WILL BE A LULL IN
WIND AND WAVE ACTION DURING WHICH TIME A RAIN / SNOW MIX WILL BE
AN ISSUE MOSTLY FOR THE S-WATERS WITH POTENTIAL VISIBILITY IMPACT.
THEN WAVES INCREASE IN EXCESS OF 5-FEET WITH ENHANCING N/NW-FLOW.

SMALL-CRAFT HEADLINES CONTINUE FOR THE OUTER WATERS THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD...WHILE INNER-WATERS EXPIRE OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE WATERS. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST DIMINISHING
THROUGH THE PERIOD. OCCASIONAL 25 KT GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE
OUTER WATERS AT TIMES.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...SEAS INCREASE AS TWO SEPARATE LOW
PRESSURE CENTERS AND THEIR COLD FRONTS APPROACH THE WATERS.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 15 TO 20 KTS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY
MORNING. GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY FOR BOTH WINDS AND SEAS AT LEAST ON THE
OUTER WATERS...IF NOT ON THE INTERIOR BAYS AND SOUNDS AT TIMES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ230>234-236-
     251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...DOODY/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...RLG/SIPPRELL
MARINE...RLG/SIPPRELL


  [top]

000
FXUS61 KOKX 310148
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
948 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A QUICK MOVING
LOW PASSING TO THE SOUTH ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO
THE PLAINS. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL THEN PROGRESS SLOWLY ACROSS
THE AREA FROM LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN LATER THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
INITIAL COLD FRONT MOVED OFFSHORE EARLIER THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS FRONT IN COMBINATION WITH A MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE HAS ALLOWED ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS TO SURVIVE THE TRIP
INTO THE REGION FROM UPSTATE NEW YORK. ACCOMPANYING THIS SECONDARY
FRONTAL PASSAGE HAS BEEN BRIEF GUSTY NW WINDS. KEWR RECENTLY
REPORTED A 32 KT GUST AND KLGA REPORTED A 34 KT GUST. COULD SEE
BRIEF GUSTS TO AROUND 35 KT...MAINLY EAST OF THE CITY AS THE
SECONDARY FRONT QUICKLY MOVES OFFSHORE IN THE NEXT HOURS. ANY
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH BY 04Z.

AFTER 04Z...EXPECT CLEARING SKIES...AND DIMINISHING W TO WNW
FLOW. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S INLAND AND IN THE LONG ISLAND
PINE BARRENS...LOWER 30S MOST ELSEWHERE...AND MID/UPPER 30S INVOF
NYC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ALBERTA CLIPPER LOW NOW MOVING SE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS WILL
CONTINUE SE...REACHING THE NRN MID ATLANTIC BY TUE AFTERNOON.
EXPECT TUE MORNING TO BE DRY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS...THEN PRECIP
SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. HAVE LIKELY/CAT POP
FOR NEARLY THE ENTIRE CWA...EXCEPT FOR SOUTHERN CT AS THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR NORTH THE ASSOCIATED PRECIP SHIELD
WILL EXTEND SINCE NWP GUIDANCE SHOWS BEST WAA AND H5 FORCING
PASSING MAINLY OVER NYC METRO/LONG ISLAND AND POINTS SOUTH.

PRECIP DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS SHOULD BE MAINLY RAIN FOR NYC
METRO AND LONG ISLAND...BUT INLAND THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO
PRECIP TYPE. ATTM EXPECT AN ELEVATION-DEPENDENT SNOWFALL...WITH A
COLD RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND MOSTLY
SNOW IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. P-TYPE SHOULD TREND MORE TOWARD
SNOW THROUGHOUT BEFORE ENDING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS VIA
WET-BULB COOLING AND AN INCREASING COLDER NORTHERLY FLOW. ATTM
EXPECT LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IN NYC METRO...NO MORE THAN A
COATING MOST ELSEWHERE AND UP TO AN INCH IN THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS. THE WORST-CASE SCENARIO WOULD BE A COATING OF
ACCUMULATION IN NYC...UP TO AN INCH MOST ELSEWHERE...AND 1-2
INCHES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A PROGRESSIVE...YET SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER
48...WILL BE FEATURED DURING THE PERIOD.  THIS WILL RESULT IN
SEVERAL SWINGS IN THE TEMP REGIME AS WE GO FROM BELOW NORMAL AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD...TO ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
FRONTAL SYSTEM AT THE END OF THE WEEK...FOLLOWED BY YET ANOTHER SHOT
OF UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR AT THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND. THERE ARE ALSO
SOME TIMING ISSUES...IN PARTICULAR WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM AT THE
END OF THE WEEK. THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH A RAINFALL WITH A
FRONTAL WAVE...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS THAT WAVE DISPLACED FARTHER NORTH
AND WEST. EVEN SO...BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF DRY CONDITIONS OUT
BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SAT. THE DIFFERENCES ARISE DUE TO
THE TIMING OF THE PAC SHORTWAVE ENERGY. THE SPECIFICS OF SUCH CAN
NOT BE WORKED OUT THIS EARLY IN THE FORECAST PROCESS. PREFERENCE WAS
TO TAKE A MIDDLE GROUND APPROACH WITH THE TIMING OF THE LATE
WEEK SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT MOVES EAST TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE QUICKLY APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST TUESDAY.

STRONG GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND BEHIND A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL DIMINISH AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.

THE LIGHT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS AS SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR. AFTER THE INITIAL GUSTS AT A
FEW AIRPORTS...WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE...GENERALLY REMAINING
UNDER 10 KTS.

CLEAR SKIES TUESDAY MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING MID CLOUDS
BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THEN RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX TO THE NORTH
DEVELOPS AFTER 19-21Z. AS SUCH...CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE
TO MVFR OR EVEN IFR.

WEST WINDS IN THE MORNING LIGHTEN DURING THE AFTERNOON...BECOMING
VARIABLE.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT...CONDS IMPROVING TO VFR BY MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT.
.WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...VFR.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS.
.SATURDAY...SUB VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS EARLY...THEN VFR LATE.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONTINUES ON THE OCEAN WATERS...EASTERN SOUND...AND PECONIC
AND GARDINERS BAYS. SEAS ON THE OCEAN ARE 4-6 FT AND MAY INCREASE
ANOTHER FT OUT EAST AS THE FLOW SHIFTS FROM SW TO W AFTER FROPA
TONIGHT. GUSTS OUT EAST AFTER FROPA SHOULD REACH SCA LEVELS. GUSTS
TO 25 KT LOOK TO BE ONLY BRIEF/OCNL IN NATURE THIS EVENING ON THE
WRN SOUND AND SOUTH SHORE BAYS.

SCA CONDS COULD LAST ON THE OCEAN THROUGH TUE NIGHT...AND ALSO
RETURN TO THE ERN WATERS TUE NIGHT...AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE
S AND NORTHERLY FLOW INCREASES IN ITS WAKE. THEN EXPECT SUB-SMALL
CRAFT LEVEL CONDITIONS WED THROUGH THU AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINS OVER THE REGION. WIND GUSTS AND WAVES INCREASE TO SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING THE OCEAN
WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
QPF OF 1/10 TO 1/4 INCH EXPECTED TUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AT THE
END OF THE WEEK WITH A FRONTAL WAVE ALONG A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL
SYSTEM.

RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW BANK FULL...BUT
INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT WILL CONTINUE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT INTO
THIS WEEKEND. ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY
OCCUR...COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING
IS UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS
SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ330-340-350-
     353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/DW
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/DS
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...GOODMAN/DW/DS
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/DW




000
FXUS61 KOKX 310148
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
948 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A QUICK MOVING
LOW PASSING TO THE SOUTH ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO
THE PLAINS. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL THEN PROGRESS SLOWLY ACROSS
THE AREA FROM LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN LATER THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
INITIAL COLD FRONT MOVED OFFSHORE EARLIER THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS FRONT IN COMBINATION WITH A MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE HAS ALLOWED ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS TO SURVIVE THE TRIP
INTO THE REGION FROM UPSTATE NEW YORK. ACCOMPANYING THIS SECONDARY
FRONTAL PASSAGE HAS BEEN BRIEF GUSTY NW WINDS. KEWR RECENTLY
REPORTED A 32 KT GUST AND KLGA REPORTED A 34 KT GUST. COULD SEE
BRIEF GUSTS TO AROUND 35 KT...MAINLY EAST OF THE CITY AS THE
SECONDARY FRONT QUICKLY MOVES OFFSHORE IN THE NEXT HOURS. ANY
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH BY 04Z.

AFTER 04Z...EXPECT CLEARING SKIES...AND DIMINISHING W TO WNW
FLOW. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S INLAND AND IN THE LONG ISLAND
PINE BARRENS...LOWER 30S MOST ELSEWHERE...AND MID/UPPER 30S INVOF
NYC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ALBERTA CLIPPER LOW NOW MOVING SE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS WILL
CONTINUE SE...REACHING THE NRN MID ATLANTIC BY TUE AFTERNOON.
EXPECT TUE MORNING TO BE DRY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS...THEN PRECIP
SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. HAVE LIKELY/CAT POP
FOR NEARLY THE ENTIRE CWA...EXCEPT FOR SOUTHERN CT AS THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR NORTH THE ASSOCIATED PRECIP SHIELD
WILL EXTEND SINCE NWP GUIDANCE SHOWS BEST WAA AND H5 FORCING
PASSING MAINLY OVER NYC METRO/LONG ISLAND AND POINTS SOUTH.

PRECIP DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS SHOULD BE MAINLY RAIN FOR NYC
METRO AND LONG ISLAND...BUT INLAND THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO
PRECIP TYPE. ATTM EXPECT AN ELEVATION-DEPENDENT SNOWFALL...WITH A
COLD RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND MOSTLY
SNOW IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. P-TYPE SHOULD TREND MORE TOWARD
SNOW THROUGHOUT BEFORE ENDING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS VIA
WET-BULB COOLING AND AN INCREASING COLDER NORTHERLY FLOW. ATTM
EXPECT LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IN NYC METRO...NO MORE THAN A
COATING MOST ELSEWHERE AND UP TO AN INCH IN THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS. THE WORST-CASE SCENARIO WOULD BE A COATING OF
ACCUMULATION IN NYC...UP TO AN INCH MOST ELSEWHERE...AND 1-2
INCHES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A PROGRESSIVE...YET SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER
48...WILL BE FEATURED DURING THE PERIOD.  THIS WILL RESULT IN
SEVERAL SWINGS IN THE TEMP REGIME AS WE GO FROM BELOW NORMAL AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD...TO ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
FRONTAL SYSTEM AT THE END OF THE WEEK...FOLLOWED BY YET ANOTHER SHOT
OF UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR AT THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND. THERE ARE ALSO
SOME TIMING ISSUES...IN PARTICULAR WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM AT THE
END OF THE WEEK. THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH A RAINFALL WITH A
FRONTAL WAVE...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS THAT WAVE DISPLACED FARTHER NORTH
AND WEST. EVEN SO...BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF DRY CONDITIONS OUT
BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SAT. THE DIFFERENCES ARISE DUE TO
THE TIMING OF THE PAC SHORTWAVE ENERGY. THE SPECIFICS OF SUCH CAN
NOT BE WORKED OUT THIS EARLY IN THE FORECAST PROCESS. PREFERENCE WAS
TO TAKE A MIDDLE GROUND APPROACH WITH THE TIMING OF THE LATE
WEEK SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT MOVES EAST TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE QUICKLY APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST TUESDAY.

STRONG GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND BEHIND A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL DIMINISH AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.

THE LIGHT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS AS SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR. AFTER THE INITIAL GUSTS AT A
FEW AIRPORTS...WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE...GENERALLY REMAINING
UNDER 10 KTS.

CLEAR SKIES TUESDAY MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING MID CLOUDS
BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THEN RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX TO THE NORTH
DEVELOPS AFTER 19-21Z. AS SUCH...CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE
TO MVFR OR EVEN IFR.

WEST WINDS IN THE MORNING LIGHTEN DURING THE AFTERNOON...BECOMING
VARIABLE.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT...CONDS IMPROVING TO VFR BY MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT.
.WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...VFR.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS.
.SATURDAY...SUB VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS EARLY...THEN VFR LATE.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONTINUES ON THE OCEAN WATERS...EASTERN SOUND...AND PECONIC
AND GARDINERS BAYS. SEAS ON THE OCEAN ARE 4-6 FT AND MAY INCREASE
ANOTHER FT OUT EAST AS THE FLOW SHIFTS FROM SW TO W AFTER FROPA
TONIGHT. GUSTS OUT EAST AFTER FROPA SHOULD REACH SCA LEVELS. GUSTS
TO 25 KT LOOK TO BE ONLY BRIEF/OCNL IN NATURE THIS EVENING ON THE
WRN SOUND AND SOUTH SHORE BAYS.

SCA CONDS COULD LAST ON THE OCEAN THROUGH TUE NIGHT...AND ALSO
RETURN TO THE ERN WATERS TUE NIGHT...AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE
S AND NORTHERLY FLOW INCREASES IN ITS WAKE. THEN EXPECT SUB-SMALL
CRAFT LEVEL CONDITIONS WED THROUGH THU AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINS OVER THE REGION. WIND GUSTS AND WAVES INCREASE TO SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING THE OCEAN
WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
QPF OF 1/10 TO 1/4 INCH EXPECTED TUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AT THE
END OF THE WEEK WITH A FRONTAL WAVE ALONG A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL
SYSTEM.

RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW BANK FULL...BUT
INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT WILL CONTINUE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT INTO
THIS WEEKEND. ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY
OCCUR...COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING
IS UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS
SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ330-340-350-
     353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/DW
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/DS
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...GOODMAN/DW/DS
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/DW


  [top]

000
FXUS61 KALY 310125
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
925 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TONIGHT...BUT A DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING MORE CLOUDS TO OUR AREA...AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE FAR
SOUTH OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO BRING FAIR WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 925 PM EDT...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS CONTINUED ACROSS THE FA. GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE SPREADING
ACROSS THE REGION AS COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST. LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS/SNOW SHOWERS TRACKING THROUGH THE
REGION...AND WILL TEND TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THIS
EVENING AND THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT SHOULD NOT GO CALM. THE COMBINATION
OF THE CLOUDS AND WINDS SHOULD PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING
TOO MUCH. LOWS IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER IMPULSE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND NORTHERN MS RIVER VALLEY
TRACKS TOWARD OUR REGION TUESDAY...AND JUST BARELY SCRAPES
SOUTHERN AREAS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CLOUDS COULD
EXTEND NORTH THROUGH CENTRAL NY AND SOUTHERN VT. WINDS SHOULD BE
LIGHT. SO...HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 40S...WITH HIGHEST TEMPERATURES
POTENTIALLY IN NORTHERN AREAS WHERE SOME FILTERED SUN CAN OCCUR.
HIGHS IN THE 30S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH LIGHT RAIN
DEVELOPING IN THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON...SOME SNOW IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

ANY RAIN AND SNOW ENDS DURING THE EVENING...AND THERE COULD BE
AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW IN HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE CATSKILLS...
WITH MAYBE A DUSTING IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. CLOUDS
GRADUALLY EXIT THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND COLD ADVECTION SPREADS
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S...TEENS IN NORTHERN
AREAS...WHERE MOST CLEARING IS EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE AND SUNNY SKY EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH THE
COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE...EVEN WITH STRONG EARLY APRIL SUN...HIGHS
IN THE 40S...SOME 30S NORTHERN AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD
DURING WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS.
TEMPERATURES DROP TO LOWS IN THE 20S DURING THE EVENING...SOME
TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS. AFTER MIDNIGHT...SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AND LOW LEVEL WINDS TURN TO
LIGHT SOUTH. SO TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD STEADY OR RISE A COUPLE
OF DEGREES TOWARD DAYBREAK.

INTERVALS OF CLOUDS THURSDAY AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHIFT TO
WEST AND SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE RAPIDLY. BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES RISE QUICKLY THROUGH THE DAY AND THE TIGHTENING
THERMAL GRADIENT AND INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD SUPPORT
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. THERE ARE HINTS
THAT SOME OF THE CLOUD COVER COULD BREAK FOR A BRIEF TIME DURING
THE AFTERNOON BUT TIMING AND DURATION COULD BE TOO LATE AND TOO
SHORT TO BOOST TEMPERATURES BEYOND THE 50S...40S IN NORTHERN
AREAS. IF DOWNSLOPING AND LONGER PERIOD OF BREAKS IN CLOUDS
THURSDAY...OPTIMUM MIXING COULD SUPPORT TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S
IN SOME AREAS...BUT NO CLEAR SIGNAL FOR THAT KIND OF WARMTH. SO...
AGAIN...HIGHS THURSDAY WITH AFTERNOON ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS...IN THE 50S...WITH SOME 40S NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS FAST-MOVING SYSTEMS
CONTINUE... WITH MODELS FORECASTING NEITHER STRONG SYSTEMS NOR
STRONG AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE. THUS...THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN
SHOWERY...AND WITH FREQUENTLY MIXED PRECIPITATION TYPES DEPENDENT
UPON TIME OF DAY... TERRAIN...CLOUDINESS...AND THE COLD AIR IN
PLAY. THE EARLY PART OF THE PERIOD WILL SEE THIS ACTIVITY...WHILE
SUNDAY ON LOOKS TO BE DRY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PRESSING
SOUTHWARD WILL KEEP SIGNIFICANT CLOUDINESS IN THE ZONES...BUT
THERE SHOULD BE PLENTIFUL PERIODS OF SUNSHINE.

THE SIGNS OF SPRING WILL BE APPARENT...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.  AFTER THIS...
HOWEVER...READINGS RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S
AND 40S.  THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD...WITH LOWS FROM
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.  BUT BY SATURDAY NIGHT...ALL LOCATIONS WILL
FREEZE...WITH THIS TO BE REPEATED SUNDAY NIGHT.  THE ADIRONDACKS AND
GREENS WILL HAVE LOCATIONS DOWN IN THE TEENS...BUT EVERYONE ELSE
WILL BE ABLE TO STAY UP IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S.  NORMAL HIGHS AT
ALBANY FOR THIS PERIOD ARE IN THE MID 50S...WITH NORMAL LOWS IN THE
MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 00Z WEDNESDAY.

MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES INTO THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD...BUT MOSTLY VFR CIGS EXPECTED. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR
WILL BE AT KPSF WHERE SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AND LOWER CIGS
ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING...WITH CIGS STAYING DOWN OVERNIGHT. THE
OTHER TAF SITES MIGHT SEE A STRAY SHOWER BUT CIG/VSBY SHOULD
REMAIN VFR. TUESDAY MORNING EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH A
THICKENING AND LOWERING MID CLOUD DECK BY NOON.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST THIS EVENING AT 7-14 KTS WITH
GUSTS TO 22 KTS AT KALB. THE WIND WILL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND
SPEEDS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY DIMINISH...DROPPING TO 5 TO 10 KTS BY
LATE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TONIGHT...BUT A DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING MORE CLOUDS TO OUR AREA...AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE FAR
SOUTH OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO BRING FAIR WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY.

RH VALUES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL MAXIMIZE BETWEEN 65 AND
95 PERCENT. MINIMUM RH VALUES TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL RANGE
BETWEEN 40 AND 60 PERCENT. MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WILL RANGE BETWEEN 25 AND 45 PERCENT.

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT 15 TO 25 MPH EARLY THIS EVENING WILL
DIMINISH TO AROUND 15 MPH TOWARD DAYBREAK. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD BE AROUND 15 MPH THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...THEN DIMINISH TO
LESS THAN 15 MPH TUESDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AT 15 TO 25 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WHICH
WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY
IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...11/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...SND/11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...SND/NAS



000
FXUS61 KALY 310125
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
925 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TONIGHT...BUT A DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING MORE CLOUDS TO OUR AREA...AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE FAR
SOUTH OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO BRING FAIR WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 925 PM EDT...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS CONTINUED ACROSS THE FA. GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE SPREADING
ACROSS THE REGION AS COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST. LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS/SNOW SHOWERS TRACKING THROUGH THE
REGION...AND WILL TEND TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THIS
EVENING AND THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT SHOULD NOT GO CALM. THE COMBINATION
OF THE CLOUDS AND WINDS SHOULD PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING
TOO MUCH. LOWS IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER IMPULSE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND NORTHERN MS RIVER VALLEY
TRACKS TOWARD OUR REGION TUESDAY...AND JUST BARELY SCRAPES
SOUTHERN AREAS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CLOUDS COULD
EXTEND NORTH THROUGH CENTRAL NY AND SOUTHERN VT. WINDS SHOULD BE
LIGHT. SO...HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 40S...WITH HIGHEST TEMPERATURES
POTENTIALLY IN NORTHERN AREAS WHERE SOME FILTERED SUN CAN OCCUR.
HIGHS IN THE 30S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH LIGHT RAIN
DEVELOPING IN THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON...SOME SNOW IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

ANY RAIN AND SNOW ENDS DURING THE EVENING...AND THERE COULD BE
AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW IN HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE CATSKILLS...
WITH MAYBE A DUSTING IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. CLOUDS
GRADUALLY EXIT THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND COLD ADVECTION SPREADS
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S...TEENS IN NORTHERN
AREAS...WHERE MOST CLEARING IS EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE AND SUNNY SKY EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH THE
COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE...EVEN WITH STRONG EARLY APRIL SUN...HIGHS
IN THE 40S...SOME 30S NORTHERN AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD
DURING WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS.
TEMPERATURES DROP TO LOWS IN THE 20S DURING THE EVENING...SOME
TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS. AFTER MIDNIGHT...SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AND LOW LEVEL WINDS TURN TO
LIGHT SOUTH. SO TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD STEADY OR RISE A COUPLE
OF DEGREES TOWARD DAYBREAK.

INTERVALS OF CLOUDS THURSDAY AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHIFT TO
WEST AND SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE RAPIDLY. BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES RISE QUICKLY THROUGH THE DAY AND THE TIGHTENING
THERMAL GRADIENT AND INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD SUPPORT
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. THERE ARE HINTS
THAT SOME OF THE CLOUD COVER COULD BREAK FOR A BRIEF TIME DURING
THE AFTERNOON BUT TIMING AND DURATION COULD BE TOO LATE AND TOO
SHORT TO BOOST TEMPERATURES BEYOND THE 50S...40S IN NORTHERN
AREAS. IF DOWNSLOPING AND LONGER PERIOD OF BREAKS IN CLOUDS
THURSDAY...OPTIMUM MIXING COULD SUPPORT TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S
IN SOME AREAS...BUT NO CLEAR SIGNAL FOR THAT KIND OF WARMTH. SO...
AGAIN...HIGHS THURSDAY WITH AFTERNOON ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS...IN THE 50S...WITH SOME 40S NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS FAST-MOVING SYSTEMS
CONTINUE... WITH MODELS FORECASTING NEITHER STRONG SYSTEMS NOR
STRONG AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE. THUS...THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN
SHOWERY...AND WITH FREQUENTLY MIXED PRECIPITATION TYPES DEPENDENT
UPON TIME OF DAY... TERRAIN...CLOUDINESS...AND THE COLD AIR IN
PLAY. THE EARLY PART OF THE PERIOD WILL SEE THIS ACTIVITY...WHILE
SUNDAY ON LOOKS TO BE DRY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PRESSING
SOUTHWARD WILL KEEP SIGNIFICANT CLOUDINESS IN THE ZONES...BUT
THERE SHOULD BE PLENTIFUL PERIODS OF SUNSHINE.

THE SIGNS OF SPRING WILL BE APPARENT...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.  AFTER THIS...
HOWEVER...READINGS RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S
AND 40S.  THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD...WITH LOWS FROM
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.  BUT BY SATURDAY NIGHT...ALL LOCATIONS WILL
FREEZE...WITH THIS TO BE REPEATED SUNDAY NIGHT.  THE ADIRONDACKS AND
GREENS WILL HAVE LOCATIONS DOWN IN THE TEENS...BUT EVERYONE ELSE
WILL BE ABLE TO STAY UP IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S.  NORMAL HIGHS AT
ALBANY FOR THIS PERIOD ARE IN THE MID 50S...WITH NORMAL LOWS IN THE
MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 00Z WEDNESDAY.

MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES INTO THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD...BUT MOSTLY VFR CIGS EXPECTED. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR
WILL BE AT KPSF WHERE SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AND LOWER CIGS
ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING...WITH CIGS STAYING DOWN OVERNIGHT. THE
OTHER TAF SITES MIGHT SEE A STRAY SHOWER BUT CIG/VSBY SHOULD
REMAIN VFR. TUESDAY MORNING EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH A
THICKENING AND LOWERING MID CLOUD DECK BY NOON.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST THIS EVENING AT 7-14 KTS WITH
GUSTS TO 22 KTS AT KALB. THE WIND WILL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND
SPEEDS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY DIMINISH...DROPPING TO 5 TO 10 KTS BY
LATE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TONIGHT...BUT A DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING MORE CLOUDS TO OUR AREA...AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE FAR
SOUTH OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO BRING FAIR WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY.

RH VALUES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL MAXIMIZE BETWEEN 65 AND
95 PERCENT. MINIMUM RH VALUES TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL RANGE
BETWEEN 40 AND 60 PERCENT. MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WILL RANGE BETWEEN 25 AND 45 PERCENT.

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT 15 TO 25 MPH EARLY THIS EVENING WILL
DIMINISH TO AROUND 15 MPH TOWARD DAYBREAK. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD BE AROUND 15 MPH THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...THEN DIMINISH TO
LESS THAN 15 MPH TUESDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AT 15 TO 25 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WHICH
WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY
IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...11/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...SND/11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...SND/NAS




000
FXUS61 KALY 310125
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
925 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TONIGHT...BUT A DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING MORE CLOUDS TO OUR AREA...AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE FAR
SOUTH OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO BRING FAIR WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 925 PM EDT...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS CONTINUED ACROSS THE FA. GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE SPREADING
ACROSS THE REGION AS COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST. LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS/SNOW SHOWERS TRACKING THROUGH THE
REGION...AND WILL TEND TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THIS
EVENING AND THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT SHOULD NOT GO CALM. THE COMBINATION
OF THE CLOUDS AND WINDS SHOULD PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING
TOO MUCH. LOWS IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER IMPULSE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND NORTHERN MS RIVER VALLEY
TRACKS TOWARD OUR REGION TUESDAY...AND JUST BARELY SCRAPES
SOUTHERN AREAS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CLOUDS COULD
EXTEND NORTH THROUGH CENTRAL NY AND SOUTHERN VT. WINDS SHOULD BE
LIGHT. SO...HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 40S...WITH HIGHEST TEMPERATURES
POTENTIALLY IN NORTHERN AREAS WHERE SOME FILTERED SUN CAN OCCUR.
HIGHS IN THE 30S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH LIGHT RAIN
DEVELOPING IN THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON...SOME SNOW IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

ANY RAIN AND SNOW ENDS DURING THE EVENING...AND THERE COULD BE
AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW IN HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE CATSKILLS...
WITH MAYBE A DUSTING IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. CLOUDS
GRADUALLY EXIT THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND COLD ADVECTION SPREADS
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S...TEENS IN NORTHERN
AREAS...WHERE MOST CLEARING IS EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE AND SUNNY SKY EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH THE
COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE...EVEN WITH STRONG EARLY APRIL SUN...HIGHS
IN THE 40S...SOME 30S NORTHERN AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD
DURING WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS.
TEMPERATURES DROP TO LOWS IN THE 20S DURING THE EVENING...SOME
TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS. AFTER MIDNIGHT...SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AND LOW LEVEL WINDS TURN TO
LIGHT SOUTH. SO TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD STEADY OR RISE A COUPLE
OF DEGREES TOWARD DAYBREAK.

INTERVALS OF CLOUDS THURSDAY AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHIFT TO
WEST AND SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE RAPIDLY. BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES RISE QUICKLY THROUGH THE DAY AND THE TIGHTENING
THERMAL GRADIENT AND INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD SUPPORT
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. THERE ARE HINTS
THAT SOME OF THE CLOUD COVER COULD BREAK FOR A BRIEF TIME DURING
THE AFTERNOON BUT TIMING AND DURATION COULD BE TOO LATE AND TOO
SHORT TO BOOST TEMPERATURES BEYOND THE 50S...40S IN NORTHERN
AREAS. IF DOWNSLOPING AND LONGER PERIOD OF BREAKS IN CLOUDS
THURSDAY...OPTIMUM MIXING COULD SUPPORT TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S
IN SOME AREAS...BUT NO CLEAR SIGNAL FOR THAT KIND OF WARMTH. SO...
AGAIN...HIGHS THURSDAY WITH AFTERNOON ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS...IN THE 50S...WITH SOME 40S NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS FAST-MOVING SYSTEMS
CONTINUE... WITH MODELS FORECASTING NEITHER STRONG SYSTEMS NOR
STRONG AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE. THUS...THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN
SHOWERY...AND WITH FREQUENTLY MIXED PRECIPITATION TYPES DEPENDENT
UPON TIME OF DAY... TERRAIN...CLOUDINESS...AND THE COLD AIR IN
PLAY. THE EARLY PART OF THE PERIOD WILL SEE THIS ACTIVITY...WHILE
SUNDAY ON LOOKS TO BE DRY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PRESSING
SOUTHWARD WILL KEEP SIGNIFICANT CLOUDINESS IN THE ZONES...BUT
THERE SHOULD BE PLENTIFUL PERIODS OF SUNSHINE.

THE SIGNS OF SPRING WILL BE APPARENT...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.  AFTER THIS...
HOWEVER...READINGS RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S
AND 40S.  THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD...WITH LOWS FROM
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.  BUT BY SATURDAY NIGHT...ALL LOCATIONS WILL
FREEZE...WITH THIS TO BE REPEATED SUNDAY NIGHT.  THE ADIRONDACKS AND
GREENS WILL HAVE LOCATIONS DOWN IN THE TEENS...BUT EVERYONE ELSE
WILL BE ABLE TO STAY UP IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S.  NORMAL HIGHS AT
ALBANY FOR THIS PERIOD ARE IN THE MID 50S...WITH NORMAL LOWS IN THE
MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 00Z WEDNESDAY.

MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES INTO THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD...BUT MOSTLY VFR CIGS EXPECTED. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR
WILL BE AT KPSF WHERE SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AND LOWER CIGS
ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING...WITH CIGS STAYING DOWN OVERNIGHT. THE
OTHER TAF SITES MIGHT SEE A STRAY SHOWER BUT CIG/VSBY SHOULD
REMAIN VFR. TUESDAY MORNING EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH A
THICKENING AND LOWERING MID CLOUD DECK BY NOON.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST THIS EVENING AT 7-14 KTS WITH
GUSTS TO 22 KTS AT KALB. THE WIND WILL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND
SPEEDS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY DIMINISH...DROPPING TO 5 TO 10 KTS BY
LATE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TONIGHT...BUT A DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING MORE CLOUDS TO OUR AREA...AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE FAR
SOUTH OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO BRING FAIR WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY.

RH VALUES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL MAXIMIZE BETWEEN 65 AND
95 PERCENT. MINIMUM RH VALUES TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL RANGE
BETWEEN 40 AND 60 PERCENT. MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WILL RANGE BETWEEN 25 AND 45 PERCENT.

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT 15 TO 25 MPH EARLY THIS EVENING WILL
DIMINISH TO AROUND 15 MPH TOWARD DAYBREAK. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD BE AROUND 15 MPH THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...THEN DIMINISH TO
LESS THAN 15 MPH TUESDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AT 15 TO 25 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WHICH
WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY
IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...11/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...SND/11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...SND/NAS




000
FXUS61 KALY 310125
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
925 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TONIGHT...BUT A DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING MORE CLOUDS TO OUR AREA...AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE FAR
SOUTH OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO BRING FAIR WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 925 PM EDT...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS CONTINUED ACROSS THE FA. GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE SPREADING
ACROSS THE REGION AS COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST. LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS/SNOW SHOWERS TRACKING THROUGH THE
REGION...AND WILL TEND TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THIS
EVENING AND THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT SHOULD NOT GO CALM. THE COMBINATION
OF THE CLOUDS AND WINDS SHOULD PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING
TOO MUCH. LOWS IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER IMPULSE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND NORTHERN MS RIVER VALLEY
TRACKS TOWARD OUR REGION TUESDAY...AND JUST BARELY SCRAPES
SOUTHERN AREAS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CLOUDS COULD
EXTEND NORTH THROUGH CENTRAL NY AND SOUTHERN VT. WINDS SHOULD BE
LIGHT. SO...HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 40S...WITH HIGHEST TEMPERATURES
POTENTIALLY IN NORTHERN AREAS WHERE SOME FILTERED SUN CAN OCCUR.
HIGHS IN THE 30S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH LIGHT RAIN
DEVELOPING IN THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON...SOME SNOW IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

ANY RAIN AND SNOW ENDS DURING THE EVENING...AND THERE COULD BE
AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW IN HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE CATSKILLS...
WITH MAYBE A DUSTING IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. CLOUDS
GRADUALLY EXIT THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND COLD ADVECTION SPREADS
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S...TEENS IN NORTHERN
AREAS...WHERE MOST CLEARING IS EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE AND SUNNY SKY EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH THE
COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE...EVEN WITH STRONG EARLY APRIL SUN...HIGHS
IN THE 40S...SOME 30S NORTHERN AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD
DURING WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS.
TEMPERATURES DROP TO LOWS IN THE 20S DURING THE EVENING...SOME
TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS. AFTER MIDNIGHT...SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AND LOW LEVEL WINDS TURN TO
LIGHT SOUTH. SO TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD STEADY OR RISE A COUPLE
OF DEGREES TOWARD DAYBREAK.

INTERVALS OF CLOUDS THURSDAY AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHIFT TO
WEST AND SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE RAPIDLY. BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES RISE QUICKLY THROUGH THE DAY AND THE TIGHTENING
THERMAL GRADIENT AND INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD SUPPORT
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. THERE ARE HINTS
THAT SOME OF THE CLOUD COVER COULD BREAK FOR A BRIEF TIME DURING
THE AFTERNOON BUT TIMING AND DURATION COULD BE TOO LATE AND TOO
SHORT TO BOOST TEMPERATURES BEYOND THE 50S...40S IN NORTHERN
AREAS. IF DOWNSLOPING AND LONGER PERIOD OF BREAKS IN CLOUDS
THURSDAY...OPTIMUM MIXING COULD SUPPORT TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S
IN SOME AREAS...BUT NO CLEAR SIGNAL FOR THAT KIND OF WARMTH. SO...
AGAIN...HIGHS THURSDAY WITH AFTERNOON ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS...IN THE 50S...WITH SOME 40S NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS FAST-MOVING SYSTEMS
CONTINUE... WITH MODELS FORECASTING NEITHER STRONG SYSTEMS NOR
STRONG AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE. THUS...THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN
SHOWERY...AND WITH FREQUENTLY MIXED PRECIPITATION TYPES DEPENDENT
UPON TIME OF DAY... TERRAIN...CLOUDINESS...AND THE COLD AIR IN
PLAY. THE EARLY PART OF THE PERIOD WILL SEE THIS ACTIVITY...WHILE
SUNDAY ON LOOKS TO BE DRY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PRESSING
SOUTHWARD WILL KEEP SIGNIFICANT CLOUDINESS IN THE ZONES...BUT
THERE SHOULD BE PLENTIFUL PERIODS OF SUNSHINE.

THE SIGNS OF SPRING WILL BE APPARENT...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.  AFTER THIS...
HOWEVER...READINGS RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S
AND 40S.  THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD...WITH LOWS FROM
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.  BUT BY SATURDAY NIGHT...ALL LOCATIONS WILL
FREEZE...WITH THIS TO BE REPEATED SUNDAY NIGHT.  THE ADIRONDACKS AND
GREENS WILL HAVE LOCATIONS DOWN IN THE TEENS...BUT EVERYONE ELSE
WILL BE ABLE TO STAY UP IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S.  NORMAL HIGHS AT
ALBANY FOR THIS PERIOD ARE IN THE MID 50S...WITH NORMAL LOWS IN THE
MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 00Z WEDNESDAY.

MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES INTO THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD...BUT MOSTLY VFR CIGS EXPECTED. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR
WILL BE AT KPSF WHERE SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AND LOWER CIGS
ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING...WITH CIGS STAYING DOWN OVERNIGHT. THE
OTHER TAF SITES MIGHT SEE A STRAY SHOWER BUT CIG/VSBY SHOULD
REMAIN VFR. TUESDAY MORNING EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH A
THICKENING AND LOWERING MID CLOUD DECK BY NOON.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST THIS EVENING AT 7-14 KTS WITH
GUSTS TO 22 KTS AT KALB. THE WIND WILL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND
SPEEDS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY DIMINISH...DROPPING TO 5 TO 10 KTS BY
LATE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TONIGHT...BUT A DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING MORE CLOUDS TO OUR AREA...AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE FAR
SOUTH OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO BRING FAIR WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY.

RH VALUES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL MAXIMIZE BETWEEN 65 AND
95 PERCENT. MINIMUM RH VALUES TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL RANGE
BETWEEN 40 AND 60 PERCENT. MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WILL RANGE BETWEEN 25 AND 45 PERCENT.

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT 15 TO 25 MPH EARLY THIS EVENING WILL
DIMINISH TO AROUND 15 MPH TOWARD DAYBREAK. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD BE AROUND 15 MPH THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...THEN DIMINISH TO
LESS THAN 15 MPH TUESDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AT 15 TO 25 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WHICH
WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY
IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...11/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...SND/11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...SND/NAS



000
FXUS61 KOKX 310007
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
807 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A QUICK MOVING
LOW PASSING TO THE SOUTH ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO
THE PLAINS. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL THEN PROGRESS SLOWLY ACROSS
THE AREA FROM LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN LATER THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH MUCH OF THE CWA AS OF 00Z. HAVE
EXTENDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY UNTIL 02Z
AS ACTIVITY WITH MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ACROSS UPSTATE NY HAS BEEN
SLOWER TO DIMINISH THAN ANTICIPATED. ANYTHING THAT FALLS WILL BE
RATHER LIGHT DUE TO DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE.

EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR...WITH W TO WNW FLOW
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. HAVE CONTINUED TO SIDE WITH COLDER GUIDANCE
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS. THIS YIELDS LOWS IN THE
UPPER 20S INLAND AND IN THE LONG ISLAND PINE BARRENS...LOWER 30S
MOST ELSEWHERE...AND MID/UPPER 30S INVOF NYC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ALBERTA CLIPPER LOW NOW MOVING SE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS WILL
CONTINUE SE...REACHING THE NRN MID ATLANTIC BY TUE AFTERNOON.
EXPECT TUE MORNING TO BE DRY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS...THEN PRECIP
SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. HAVE LIKELY/CAT POP
FOR NEARLY THE ENTIRE CWA...EXCEPT FOR SOUTHERN CT AS THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR NORTH THE ASSOCIATED PRECIP SHIELD
WILL EXTEND SINCE NWP GUIDANCE SHOWS BEST WAA AND H5 FORCING
PASSING MAINLY OVER NYC METRO/LONG ISLAND AND POINTS SOUTH.

PRECIP DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS SHOULD BE MAINLY RAIN FOR NYC
METRO AND LONG ISLAND...BUT INLAND THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO
PRECIP TYPE. ATTM EXPECT AN ELEVATION-DEPENDENT SNOWFALL...WITH A
COLD RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND MOSTLY
SNOW IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. P-TYPE SHOULD TREND MORE TOWARD
SNOW THROUGHOUT BEFORE ENDING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS VIA
WET-BULB COOLING AND AN INCREASING COLDER NORTHERLY FLOW. ATTM
EXPECT LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IN NYC METRO...NO MORE THAN A
COATING MOST ELSEWHERE AND UP TO AN INCH IN THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS. THE WORST-CASE SCENARIO WOULD BE A COATING OF
ACCUMULATION IN NYC...UP TO AN INCH MOST ELSEWHERE...AND 1-2
INCHES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A PROGRESSIVE...YET SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER
48...WILL BE FEATURED DURING THE PERIOD.  THIS WILL RESULT IN
SEVERAL SWINGS IN THE TEMP REGIME AS WE GO FROM BELOW NORMAL AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD...TO ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
FRONTAL SYSTEM AT THE END OF THE WEEK...FOLLOWED BY YET ANOTHER SHOT
OF UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR AT THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND. THERE ARE ALSO
SOME TIMING ISSUES...IN PARTICULAR WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM AT THE
END OF THE WEEK. THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH A RAINFALL WITH A
FRONTAL WAVE...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS THAT WAVE DISPLACED FARTHER NORTH
AND WEST. EVEN SO...BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF DRY CONDITIONS OUT
BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SAT. THE DIFFERENCES ARISE DUE TO
THE TIMING OF THE PAC SHORTWAVE ENERGY. THE SPECIFICS OF SUCH CAN
NOT BE WORKED OUT THIS EARLY IN THE FORECAST PROCESS. PREFERENCE WAS
TO TAKE A MIDDLE GROUND APPROACH WITH THE TIMING OF THE LATE
WEEK SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT MOVES EAST TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE QUICKLY APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST TUESDAY.

VFR TONIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR. WEST WINDS DIMINISH THIS
EVENING...GENERALLY REMAINING UNDER 10 KTS OVERNIGHT.

CLEAR SKIES TUESDAY MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING MID CLOUDS
BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THEN RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX TO THE NORTH
DEVELOPS AFTER 19-21Z. AS SUCH...CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE
TO MVFR OR EVEN IFR.

WEST WINDS IN THE MORNING LIGHTEN DURING THE AFTERNOON...BECOMING
VARIABLE.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS REMAIN TO THE LEFT OF 310 MAGNETIC THIS
EVENING. TIMING OF SUB VFR MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR TWO TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS REMAIN TO THE LEFT OF 310 MAGNETIC THIS
EVENING. TIMING OF SUB VFR MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR TWO TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS REMAIN TO THE LEFT OF 310 MAGNETIC THIS
EVENING. TIMING OF SUB VFR MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR TWO TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: W/NW WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH NO
UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. TIMING OF SUB VFR MAY BE OFF AN
HOUR OR TWO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: W/NW WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH NO
UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. TIMING OF SUB VFR MAY BE OFF AN
HOUR OR TWO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: W/NW WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH NO
UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. TIMING OF SUB VFR MAY BE OFF AN
HOUR OR TWO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT...CONDS IMPROVING TO VFR BY MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT.
.WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...VFR.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS.
.SATURDAY...SUB VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS EARLY...THEN VFR LATE.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FOR NY HARBOR HAS EXPIRED. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE TO SCA
HEADLINES WITH THIS UPDATE. SEAS ON THE OCEAN ARE 4-6 FT AND MAY
INCREASE ANOTHER FT OUT EAST AS THE FLOW SHIFTS FROM SW TO W AFTER
FROPA TONIGHT. GUSTS OUT EAST AFTER FROPA SHOULD REACH SCA LEVELS
AS WELL...BUT DID NOT ISSUE SCA FOR THE WRN SOUND OR THE SOUTH
SHORE BAYS AS GUSTS TO 25 KT LOOK TO BE ONLY BRIEF/OCNL IN NATURE
EARLY THIS EVENING.

SCA CONDS COULD LAST ON THE OCEAN THROUGH TUE NIGHT...AND ALSO
RETURN TO THE ERN WATERS TUE NIGHT...AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE
S AND NORTHERLY FLOW INCREASES IN ITS WAKE. THEN EXPECT SUB-SMALL
CRAFT LEVEL CONDITIONS WED THROUGH THU AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINS OVER THE REGION. WIND GUSTS AND WAVES INCREASE TO SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING THE OCEAN
WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
QPF OF 1/10 TO 1/4 INCH EXPECTED TUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AT THE
END OF THE WEEK WITH A FRONTAL WAVE ALONG A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL
SYSTEM.

RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW BANK FULL...BUT
INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT WILL CONTINUE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT INTO
THIS WEEKEND. ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY
OCCUR...COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING
IS UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS
SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ330-340-350-
     353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/DW
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/DS
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...GOODMAN/DW
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/DW




000
FXUS61 KOKX 310007
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
807 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A QUICK MOVING
LOW PASSING TO THE SOUTH ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO
THE PLAINS. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL THEN PROGRESS SLOWLY ACROSS
THE AREA FROM LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN LATER THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH MUCH OF THE CWA AS OF 00Z. HAVE
EXTENDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY UNTIL 02Z
AS ACTIVITY WITH MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ACROSS UPSTATE NY HAS BEEN
SLOWER TO DIMINISH THAN ANTICIPATED. ANYTHING THAT FALLS WILL BE
RATHER LIGHT DUE TO DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE.

EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR...WITH W TO WNW FLOW
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. HAVE CONTINUED TO SIDE WITH COLDER GUIDANCE
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS. THIS YIELDS LOWS IN THE
UPPER 20S INLAND AND IN THE LONG ISLAND PINE BARRENS...LOWER 30S
MOST ELSEWHERE...AND MID/UPPER 30S INVOF NYC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ALBERTA CLIPPER LOW NOW MOVING SE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS WILL
CONTINUE SE...REACHING THE NRN MID ATLANTIC BY TUE AFTERNOON.
EXPECT TUE MORNING TO BE DRY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS...THEN PRECIP
SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. HAVE LIKELY/CAT POP
FOR NEARLY THE ENTIRE CWA...EXCEPT FOR SOUTHERN CT AS THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR NORTH THE ASSOCIATED PRECIP SHIELD
WILL EXTEND SINCE NWP GUIDANCE SHOWS BEST WAA AND H5 FORCING
PASSING MAINLY OVER NYC METRO/LONG ISLAND AND POINTS SOUTH.

PRECIP DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS SHOULD BE MAINLY RAIN FOR NYC
METRO AND LONG ISLAND...BUT INLAND THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO
PRECIP TYPE. ATTM EXPECT AN ELEVATION-DEPENDENT SNOWFALL...WITH A
COLD RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND MOSTLY
SNOW IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. P-TYPE SHOULD TREND MORE TOWARD
SNOW THROUGHOUT BEFORE ENDING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS VIA
WET-BULB COOLING AND AN INCREASING COLDER NORTHERLY FLOW. ATTM
EXPECT LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IN NYC METRO...NO MORE THAN A
COATING MOST ELSEWHERE AND UP TO AN INCH IN THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS. THE WORST-CASE SCENARIO WOULD BE A COATING OF
ACCUMULATION IN NYC...UP TO AN INCH MOST ELSEWHERE...AND 1-2
INCHES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A PROGRESSIVE...YET SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER
48...WILL BE FEATURED DURING THE PERIOD.  THIS WILL RESULT IN
SEVERAL SWINGS IN THE TEMP REGIME AS WE GO FROM BELOW NORMAL AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD...TO ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
FRONTAL SYSTEM AT THE END OF THE WEEK...FOLLOWED BY YET ANOTHER SHOT
OF UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR AT THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND. THERE ARE ALSO
SOME TIMING ISSUES...IN PARTICULAR WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM AT THE
END OF THE WEEK. THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH A RAINFALL WITH A
FRONTAL WAVE...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS THAT WAVE DISPLACED FARTHER NORTH
AND WEST. EVEN SO...BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF DRY CONDITIONS OUT
BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SAT. THE DIFFERENCES ARISE DUE TO
THE TIMING OF THE PAC SHORTWAVE ENERGY. THE SPECIFICS OF SUCH CAN
NOT BE WORKED OUT THIS EARLY IN THE FORECAST PROCESS. PREFERENCE WAS
TO TAKE A MIDDLE GROUND APPROACH WITH THE TIMING OF THE LATE
WEEK SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT MOVES EAST TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE QUICKLY APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST TUESDAY.

VFR TONIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR. WEST WINDS DIMINISH THIS
EVENING...GENERALLY REMAINING UNDER 10 KTS OVERNIGHT.

CLEAR SKIES TUESDAY MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING MID CLOUDS
BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THEN RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX TO THE NORTH
DEVELOPS AFTER 19-21Z. AS SUCH...CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE
TO MVFR OR EVEN IFR.

WEST WINDS IN THE MORNING LIGHTEN DURING THE AFTERNOON...BECOMING
VARIABLE.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS REMAIN TO THE LEFT OF 310 MAGNETIC THIS
EVENING. TIMING OF SUB VFR MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR TWO TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS REMAIN TO THE LEFT OF 310 MAGNETIC THIS
EVENING. TIMING OF SUB VFR MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR TWO TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS REMAIN TO THE LEFT OF 310 MAGNETIC THIS
EVENING. TIMING OF SUB VFR MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR TWO TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: W/NW WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH NO
UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. TIMING OF SUB VFR MAY BE OFF AN
HOUR OR TWO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: W/NW WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH NO
UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. TIMING OF SUB VFR MAY BE OFF AN
HOUR OR TWO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: W/NW WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH NO
UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. TIMING OF SUB VFR MAY BE OFF AN
HOUR OR TWO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT...CONDS IMPROVING TO VFR BY MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT.
.WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...VFR.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS.
.SATURDAY...SUB VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS EARLY...THEN VFR LATE.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FOR NY HARBOR HAS EXPIRED. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE TO SCA
HEADLINES WITH THIS UPDATE. SEAS ON THE OCEAN ARE 4-6 FT AND MAY
INCREASE ANOTHER FT OUT EAST AS THE FLOW SHIFTS FROM SW TO W AFTER
FROPA TONIGHT. GUSTS OUT EAST AFTER FROPA SHOULD REACH SCA LEVELS
AS WELL...BUT DID NOT ISSUE SCA FOR THE WRN SOUND OR THE SOUTH
SHORE BAYS AS GUSTS TO 25 KT LOOK TO BE ONLY BRIEF/OCNL IN NATURE
EARLY THIS EVENING.

SCA CONDS COULD LAST ON THE OCEAN THROUGH TUE NIGHT...AND ALSO
RETURN TO THE ERN WATERS TUE NIGHT...AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE
S AND NORTHERLY FLOW INCREASES IN ITS WAKE. THEN EXPECT SUB-SMALL
CRAFT LEVEL CONDITIONS WED THROUGH THU AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINS OVER THE REGION. WIND GUSTS AND WAVES INCREASE TO SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING THE OCEAN
WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
QPF OF 1/10 TO 1/4 INCH EXPECTED TUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AT THE
END OF THE WEEK WITH A FRONTAL WAVE ALONG A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL
SYSTEM.

RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW BANK FULL...BUT
INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT WILL CONTINUE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT INTO
THIS WEEKEND. ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY
OCCUR...COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING
IS UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS
SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ330-340-350-
     353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/DW
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/DS
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...GOODMAN/DW
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/DW



000
FXUS61 KOKX 310007
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
807 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A QUICK MOVING
LOW PASSING TO THE SOUTH ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO
THE PLAINS. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL THEN PROGRESS SLOWLY ACROSS
THE AREA FROM LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN LATER THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH MUCH OF THE CWA AS OF 00Z. HAVE
EXTENDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY UNTIL 02Z
AS ACTIVITY WITH MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ACROSS UPSTATE NY HAS BEEN
SLOWER TO DIMINISH THAN ANTICIPATED. ANYTHING THAT FALLS WILL BE
RATHER LIGHT DUE TO DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE.

EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR...WITH W TO WNW FLOW
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. HAVE CONTINUED TO SIDE WITH COLDER GUIDANCE
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS. THIS YIELDS LOWS IN THE
UPPER 20S INLAND AND IN THE LONG ISLAND PINE BARRENS...LOWER 30S
MOST ELSEWHERE...AND MID/UPPER 30S INVOF NYC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ALBERTA CLIPPER LOW NOW MOVING SE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS WILL
CONTINUE SE...REACHING THE NRN MID ATLANTIC BY TUE AFTERNOON.
EXPECT TUE MORNING TO BE DRY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS...THEN PRECIP
SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. HAVE LIKELY/CAT POP
FOR NEARLY THE ENTIRE CWA...EXCEPT FOR SOUTHERN CT AS THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR NORTH THE ASSOCIATED PRECIP SHIELD
WILL EXTEND SINCE NWP GUIDANCE SHOWS BEST WAA AND H5 FORCING
PASSING MAINLY OVER NYC METRO/LONG ISLAND AND POINTS SOUTH.

PRECIP DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS SHOULD BE MAINLY RAIN FOR NYC
METRO AND LONG ISLAND...BUT INLAND THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO
PRECIP TYPE. ATTM EXPECT AN ELEVATION-DEPENDENT SNOWFALL...WITH A
COLD RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND MOSTLY
SNOW IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. P-TYPE SHOULD TREND MORE TOWARD
SNOW THROUGHOUT BEFORE ENDING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS VIA
WET-BULB COOLING AND AN INCREASING COLDER NORTHERLY FLOW. ATTM
EXPECT LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IN NYC METRO...NO MORE THAN A
COATING MOST ELSEWHERE AND UP TO AN INCH IN THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS. THE WORST-CASE SCENARIO WOULD BE A COATING OF
ACCUMULATION IN NYC...UP TO AN INCH MOST ELSEWHERE...AND 1-2
INCHES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A PROGRESSIVE...YET SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER
48...WILL BE FEATURED DURING THE PERIOD.  THIS WILL RESULT IN
SEVERAL SWINGS IN THE TEMP REGIME AS WE GO FROM BELOW NORMAL AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD...TO ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
FRONTAL SYSTEM AT THE END OF THE WEEK...FOLLOWED BY YET ANOTHER SHOT
OF UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR AT THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND. THERE ARE ALSO
SOME TIMING ISSUES...IN PARTICULAR WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM AT THE
END OF THE WEEK. THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH A RAINFALL WITH A
FRONTAL WAVE...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS THAT WAVE DISPLACED FARTHER NORTH
AND WEST. EVEN SO...BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF DRY CONDITIONS OUT
BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SAT. THE DIFFERENCES ARISE DUE TO
THE TIMING OF THE PAC SHORTWAVE ENERGY. THE SPECIFICS OF SUCH CAN
NOT BE WORKED OUT THIS EARLY IN THE FORECAST PROCESS. PREFERENCE WAS
TO TAKE A MIDDLE GROUND APPROACH WITH THE TIMING OF THE LATE
WEEK SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT MOVES EAST TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE QUICKLY APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST TUESDAY.

VFR TONIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR. WEST WINDS DIMINISH THIS
EVENING...GENERALLY REMAINING UNDER 10 KTS OVERNIGHT.

CLEAR SKIES TUESDAY MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING MID CLOUDS
BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THEN RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX TO THE NORTH
DEVELOPS AFTER 19-21Z. AS SUCH...CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE
TO MVFR OR EVEN IFR.

WEST WINDS IN THE MORNING LIGHTEN DURING THE AFTERNOON...BECOMING
VARIABLE.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS REMAIN TO THE LEFT OF 310 MAGNETIC THIS
EVENING. TIMING OF SUB VFR MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR TWO TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS REMAIN TO THE LEFT OF 310 MAGNETIC THIS
EVENING. TIMING OF SUB VFR MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR TWO TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS REMAIN TO THE LEFT OF 310 MAGNETIC THIS
EVENING. TIMING OF SUB VFR MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR TWO TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: W/NW WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH NO
UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. TIMING OF SUB VFR MAY BE OFF AN
HOUR OR TWO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: W/NW WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH NO
UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. TIMING OF SUB VFR MAY BE OFF AN
HOUR OR TWO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: W/NW WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH NO
UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. TIMING OF SUB VFR MAY BE OFF AN
HOUR OR TWO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT...CONDS IMPROVING TO VFR BY MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT.
.WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...VFR.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS.
.SATURDAY...SUB VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS EARLY...THEN VFR LATE.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FOR NY HARBOR HAS EXPIRED. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE TO SCA
HEADLINES WITH THIS UPDATE. SEAS ON THE OCEAN ARE 4-6 FT AND MAY
INCREASE ANOTHER FT OUT EAST AS THE FLOW SHIFTS FROM SW TO W AFTER
FROPA TONIGHT. GUSTS OUT EAST AFTER FROPA SHOULD REACH SCA LEVELS
AS WELL...BUT DID NOT ISSUE SCA FOR THE WRN SOUND OR THE SOUTH
SHORE BAYS AS GUSTS TO 25 KT LOOK TO BE ONLY BRIEF/OCNL IN NATURE
EARLY THIS EVENING.

SCA CONDS COULD LAST ON THE OCEAN THROUGH TUE NIGHT...AND ALSO
RETURN TO THE ERN WATERS TUE NIGHT...AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE
S AND NORTHERLY FLOW INCREASES IN ITS WAKE. THEN EXPECT SUB-SMALL
CRAFT LEVEL CONDITIONS WED THROUGH THU AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINS OVER THE REGION. WIND GUSTS AND WAVES INCREASE TO SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING THE OCEAN
WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
QPF OF 1/10 TO 1/4 INCH EXPECTED TUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AT THE
END OF THE WEEK WITH A FRONTAL WAVE ALONG A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL
SYSTEM.

RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW BANK FULL...BUT
INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT WILL CONTINUE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT INTO
THIS WEEKEND. ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY
OCCUR...COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING
IS UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS
SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ330-340-350-
     353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/DW
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/DS
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...GOODMAN/DW
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/DW




000
FXUS61 KOKX 310007
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
807 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A QUICK MOVING
LOW PASSING TO THE SOUTH ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO
THE PLAINS. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL THEN PROGRESS SLOWLY ACROSS
THE AREA FROM LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN LATER THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH MUCH OF THE CWA AS OF 00Z. HAVE
EXTENDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY UNTIL 02Z
AS ACTIVITY WITH MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ACROSS UPSTATE NY HAS BEEN
SLOWER TO DIMINISH THAN ANTICIPATED. ANYTHING THAT FALLS WILL BE
RATHER LIGHT DUE TO DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE.

EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR...WITH W TO WNW FLOW
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. HAVE CONTINUED TO SIDE WITH COLDER GUIDANCE
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS. THIS YIELDS LOWS IN THE
UPPER 20S INLAND AND IN THE LONG ISLAND PINE BARRENS...LOWER 30S
MOST ELSEWHERE...AND MID/UPPER 30S INVOF NYC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ALBERTA CLIPPER LOW NOW MOVING SE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS WILL
CONTINUE SE...REACHING THE NRN MID ATLANTIC BY TUE AFTERNOON.
EXPECT TUE MORNING TO BE DRY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS...THEN PRECIP
SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. HAVE LIKELY/CAT POP
FOR NEARLY THE ENTIRE CWA...EXCEPT FOR SOUTHERN CT AS THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR NORTH THE ASSOCIATED PRECIP SHIELD
WILL EXTEND SINCE NWP GUIDANCE SHOWS BEST WAA AND H5 FORCING
PASSING MAINLY OVER NYC METRO/LONG ISLAND AND POINTS SOUTH.

PRECIP DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS SHOULD BE MAINLY RAIN FOR NYC
METRO AND LONG ISLAND...BUT INLAND THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO
PRECIP TYPE. ATTM EXPECT AN ELEVATION-DEPENDENT SNOWFALL...WITH A
COLD RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND MOSTLY
SNOW IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. P-TYPE SHOULD TREND MORE TOWARD
SNOW THROUGHOUT BEFORE ENDING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS VIA
WET-BULB COOLING AND AN INCREASING COLDER NORTHERLY FLOW. ATTM
EXPECT LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IN NYC METRO...NO MORE THAN A
COATING MOST ELSEWHERE AND UP TO AN INCH IN THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS. THE WORST-CASE SCENARIO WOULD BE A COATING OF
ACCUMULATION IN NYC...UP TO AN INCH MOST ELSEWHERE...AND 1-2
INCHES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A PROGRESSIVE...YET SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER
48...WILL BE FEATURED DURING THE PERIOD.  THIS WILL RESULT IN
SEVERAL SWINGS IN THE TEMP REGIME AS WE GO FROM BELOW NORMAL AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD...TO ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
FRONTAL SYSTEM AT THE END OF THE WEEK...FOLLOWED BY YET ANOTHER SHOT
OF UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR AT THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND. THERE ARE ALSO
SOME TIMING ISSUES...IN PARTICULAR WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM AT THE
END OF THE WEEK. THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH A RAINFALL WITH A
FRONTAL WAVE...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS THAT WAVE DISPLACED FARTHER NORTH
AND WEST. EVEN SO...BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF DRY CONDITIONS OUT
BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SAT. THE DIFFERENCES ARISE DUE TO
THE TIMING OF THE PAC SHORTWAVE ENERGY. THE SPECIFICS OF SUCH CAN
NOT BE WORKED OUT THIS EARLY IN THE FORECAST PROCESS. PREFERENCE WAS
TO TAKE A MIDDLE GROUND APPROACH WITH THE TIMING OF THE LATE
WEEK SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT MOVES EAST TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE QUICKLY APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST TUESDAY.

VFR TONIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR. WEST WINDS DIMINISH THIS
EVENING...GENERALLY REMAINING UNDER 10 KTS OVERNIGHT.

CLEAR SKIES TUESDAY MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING MID CLOUDS
BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THEN RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX TO THE NORTH
DEVELOPS AFTER 19-21Z. AS SUCH...CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE
TO MVFR OR EVEN IFR.

WEST WINDS IN THE MORNING LIGHTEN DURING THE AFTERNOON...BECOMING
VARIABLE.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS REMAIN TO THE LEFT OF 310 MAGNETIC THIS
EVENING. TIMING OF SUB VFR MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR TWO TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS REMAIN TO THE LEFT OF 310 MAGNETIC THIS
EVENING. TIMING OF SUB VFR MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR TWO TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS REMAIN TO THE LEFT OF 310 MAGNETIC THIS
EVENING. TIMING OF SUB VFR MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR TWO TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: W/NW WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH NO
UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. TIMING OF SUB VFR MAY BE OFF AN
HOUR OR TWO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: W/NW WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH NO
UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. TIMING OF SUB VFR MAY BE OFF AN
HOUR OR TWO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: W/NW WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH NO
UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. TIMING OF SUB VFR MAY BE OFF AN
HOUR OR TWO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT...CONDS IMPROVING TO VFR BY MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT.
.WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...VFR.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS.
.SATURDAY...SUB VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS EARLY...THEN VFR LATE.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FOR NY HARBOR HAS EXPIRED. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE TO SCA
HEADLINES WITH THIS UPDATE. SEAS ON THE OCEAN ARE 4-6 FT AND MAY
INCREASE ANOTHER FT OUT EAST AS THE FLOW SHIFTS FROM SW TO W AFTER
FROPA TONIGHT. GUSTS OUT EAST AFTER FROPA SHOULD REACH SCA LEVELS
AS WELL...BUT DID NOT ISSUE SCA FOR THE WRN SOUND OR THE SOUTH
SHORE BAYS AS GUSTS TO 25 KT LOOK TO BE ONLY BRIEF/OCNL IN NATURE
EARLY THIS EVENING.

SCA CONDS COULD LAST ON THE OCEAN THROUGH TUE NIGHT...AND ALSO
RETURN TO THE ERN WATERS TUE NIGHT...AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE
S AND NORTHERLY FLOW INCREASES IN ITS WAKE. THEN EXPECT SUB-SMALL
CRAFT LEVEL CONDITIONS WED THROUGH THU AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINS OVER THE REGION. WIND GUSTS AND WAVES INCREASE TO SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING THE OCEAN
WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
QPF OF 1/10 TO 1/4 INCH EXPECTED TUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AT THE
END OF THE WEEK WITH A FRONTAL WAVE ALONG A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL
SYSTEM.

RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW BANK FULL...BUT
INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT WILL CONTINUE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT INTO
THIS WEEKEND. ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY
OCCUR...COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING
IS UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS
SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ330-340-350-
     353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/DW
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/DS
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...GOODMAN/DW
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/DW



000
FXUS61 KALY 302305
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
705 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TONIGHT...BUT A DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING MORE CLOUDS TO OUR AREA...AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE FAR
SOUTH OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO BRING FAIR WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 625 PM EDT...GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE SPREADING ACROSS THE
REGION AS COLD ADVECTION BUILDS EAST. LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS/SNOW SHOWERS TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION...AND WILL TEND
TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THIS EVENING AND THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. WEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT
SHOULD NOT GO CALM. THE COMBINATION OF THE CLOUDS AND WINDS SHOULD
PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO MUCH. LOWS IN THE 20S TO
LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER IMPULSE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND NORTHERN MS RIVER VALLEY
TRACKS TOWARD OUR REGION TUESDAY...AND JUST BARELY SCRAPES
SOUTHERN AREAS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CLOUDS COULD
EXTEND NORTH THROUGH CENTRAL NY AND SOUTHERN VT. WINDS SHOULD BE
LIGHT. SO...HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 40S...WITH HIGHEST TEMPERATURES
POTENTIALLY IN NORTHERN AREAS WHERE SOME FILTERED SUN CAN OCCUR.
HIGHS IN THE 30S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH LIGHT RAIN
DEVELOPING IN THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON...SOME SNOW IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

ANY RAIN AND SNOW ENDS DURING THE EVENING...AND THERE COULD BE
AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW IN HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE CATSKILLS...
WITH MAYBE A DUSTING IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. CLOUDS
GRADUALLY EXIT THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND COLD ADVECTION SPREADS
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S...TEENS IN NORTHERN
AREAS...WHERE MOST CLEARING IS EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE AND SUNNY SKY EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH THE
COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE...EVEN WITH STRONG EARLY APRIL SUN...HIGHS
IN THE 40S...SOME 30S NORTHERN AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD
DURING WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS.
TEMPERATURES DROP TO LOWS IN THE 20S DURING THE EVENING...SOME
TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS. AFTER MIDNIGHT...SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AND LOW LEVEL WINDS TURN TO
LIGHT SOUTH. SO TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD STEADY OR RISE A COUPLE
OF DEGREES TOWARD DAYBREAK.

INTERVALS OF CLOUDS THURSDAY AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHIFT TO
WEST AND SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE RAPIDLY. BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES RISE QUICKLY THROUGH THE DAY AND THE TIGHTENING
THERMAL GRADIENT AND INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD SUPPORT
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. THERE ARE HINTS
THAT SOME OF THE CLOUD COVER COULD BREAK FOR A BRIEF TIME DURING
THE AFTERNOON BUT TIMING AND DURATION COULD BE TOO LATE AND TOO
SHORT TO BOOST TEMPERATURES BEYOND THE 50S...40S IN NORTHERN
AREAS. IF DOWNSLOPING AND LONGER PERIOD OF BREAKS IN CLOUDS
THURSDAY...OPTIMUM MIXING COULD SUPPORT TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S
IN SOME AREAS...BUT NO CLEAR SIGNAL FOR THAT KIND OF WARMTH. SO...
AGAIN...HIGHS THURSDAY WITH AFTERNOON ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS...IN THE 50S...WITH SOME 40S NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS FAST-MOVING SYSTEMS
CONTINUE... WITH MODELS FORECASTING NEITHER STRONG SYSTEMS NOR
STRONG AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE. THUS...THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN
SHOWERY...AND WITH FREQUENTLY MIXED PRECIPITATION TYPES DEPENDENT
UPON TIME OF DAY... TERRAIN...CLOUDINESS...AND THE COLD AIR IN
PLAY. THE EARLY PART OF THE PERIOD WILL SEE THIS ACTIVITY...WHILE
SUNDAY ON LOOKS TO BE DRY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PRESSING
SOUTHWARD WILL KEEP SIGNIFICANT CLOUDINESS IN THE ZONES...BUT
THERE SHOULD BE PLENTIFUL PERIODS OF SUNSHINE.

THE SIGNS OF SPRING WILL BE APPARENT...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.  AFTER THIS...
HOWEVER...READINGS RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S
AND 40S.  THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD...WITH LOWS FROM
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.  BUT BY SATURDAY NIGHT...ALL LOCATIONS WILL
FREEZE...WITH THIS TO BE REPEATED SUNDAY NIGHT.  THE ADIRONDACKS AND
GREENS WILL HAVE LOCATIONS DOWN IN THE TEENS...BUT EVERYONE ELSE
WILL BE ABLE TO STAY UP IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S.  NORMAL HIGHS AT
ALBANY FOR THIS PERIOD ARE IN THE MID 50S...WITH NORMAL LOWS IN THE
MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 00Z WEDNESDAY.

MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES INTO THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD...BUT MOSTLY VFR CIGS EXPECTED. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR
WILL BE AT KPSF WHERE SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AND LOWER CIGS
ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING...WITH CIGS STAYING DOWN OVERNIGHT. THE
OTHER TAF SITES MIGHT SEE A STRAY SHOWER BUT CIG/VSBY SHOULD
REMAIN VFR. TUESDAY MORNING EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH A
THICKENING AND LOWERING MID CLOUD DECK BY NOON.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST THIS EVENING AT 7-14 KTS WITH
GUSTS TO 22 KTS AT KALB. THE WIND WILL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND
SPEEDS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY DIMINISH...DROPPING TO 5 TO 10 KTS BY
LATE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TONIGHT...BUT A DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING MORE CLOUDS TO OUR AREA...AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE FAR
SOUTH OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO BRING FAIR WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY.

RH VALUES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL MAXIMIZE BETWEEN 65 AND
95 PERCENT. MINIMUM RH VALUES TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL RANGE
BETWEEN 40 AND 60 PERCENT. MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WILL RANGE BETWEEN 25 AND 45 PERCENT.

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT 15 TO 25 MPH EARLY THIS EVENING WILL
DIMINISH TO AROUND 15 MPH TOWARD DAYBREAK. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD BE AROUND 15 MPH THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...THEN DIMINISH TO
LESS THAN 15 MPH TUESDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AT 15 TO 25 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WHICH
WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY
IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...11/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...SND/11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...SND/NAS



000
FXUS61 KALY 302305
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
705 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TONIGHT...BUT A DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING MORE CLOUDS TO OUR AREA...AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE FAR
SOUTH OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO BRING FAIR WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 625 PM EDT...GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE SPREADING ACROSS THE
REGION AS COLD ADVECTION BUILDS EAST. LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS/SNOW SHOWERS TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION...AND WILL TEND
TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THIS EVENING AND THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. WEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT
SHOULD NOT GO CALM. THE COMBINATION OF THE CLOUDS AND WINDS SHOULD
PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO MUCH. LOWS IN THE 20S TO
LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER IMPULSE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND NORTHERN MS RIVER VALLEY
TRACKS TOWARD OUR REGION TUESDAY...AND JUST BARELY SCRAPES
SOUTHERN AREAS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CLOUDS COULD
EXTEND NORTH THROUGH CENTRAL NY AND SOUTHERN VT. WINDS SHOULD BE
LIGHT. SO...HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 40S...WITH HIGHEST TEMPERATURES
POTENTIALLY IN NORTHERN AREAS WHERE SOME FILTERED SUN CAN OCCUR.
HIGHS IN THE 30S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH LIGHT RAIN
DEVELOPING IN THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON...SOME SNOW IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

ANY RAIN AND SNOW ENDS DURING THE EVENING...AND THERE COULD BE
AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW IN HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE CATSKILLS...
WITH MAYBE A DUSTING IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. CLOUDS
GRADUALLY EXIT THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND COLD ADVECTION SPREADS
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S...TEENS IN NORTHERN
AREAS...WHERE MOST CLEARING IS EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE AND SUNNY SKY EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH THE
COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE...EVEN WITH STRONG EARLY APRIL SUN...HIGHS
IN THE 40S...SOME 30S NORTHERN AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD
DURING WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS.
TEMPERATURES DROP TO LOWS IN THE 20S DURING THE EVENING...SOME
TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS. AFTER MIDNIGHT...SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AND LOW LEVEL WINDS TURN TO
LIGHT SOUTH. SO TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD STEADY OR RISE A COUPLE
OF DEGREES TOWARD DAYBREAK.

INTERVALS OF CLOUDS THURSDAY AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHIFT TO
WEST AND SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE RAPIDLY. BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES RISE QUICKLY THROUGH THE DAY AND THE TIGHTENING
THERMAL GRADIENT AND INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD SUPPORT
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. THERE ARE HINTS
THAT SOME OF THE CLOUD COVER COULD BREAK FOR A BRIEF TIME DURING
THE AFTERNOON BUT TIMING AND DURATION COULD BE TOO LATE AND TOO
SHORT TO BOOST TEMPERATURES BEYOND THE 50S...40S IN NORTHERN
AREAS. IF DOWNSLOPING AND LONGER PERIOD OF BREAKS IN CLOUDS
THURSDAY...OPTIMUM MIXING COULD SUPPORT TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S
IN SOME AREAS...BUT NO CLEAR SIGNAL FOR THAT KIND OF WARMTH. SO...
AGAIN...HIGHS THURSDAY WITH AFTERNOON ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS...IN THE 50S...WITH SOME 40S NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS FAST-MOVING SYSTEMS
CONTINUE... WITH MODELS FORECASTING NEITHER STRONG SYSTEMS NOR
STRONG AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE. THUS...THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN
SHOWERY...AND WITH FREQUENTLY MIXED PRECIPITATION TYPES DEPENDENT
UPON TIME OF DAY... TERRAIN...CLOUDINESS...AND THE COLD AIR IN
PLAY. THE EARLY PART OF THE PERIOD WILL SEE THIS ACTIVITY...WHILE
SUNDAY ON LOOKS TO BE DRY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PRESSING
SOUTHWARD WILL KEEP SIGNIFICANT CLOUDINESS IN THE ZONES...BUT
THERE SHOULD BE PLENTIFUL PERIODS OF SUNSHINE.

THE SIGNS OF SPRING WILL BE APPARENT...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.  AFTER THIS...
HOWEVER...READINGS RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S
AND 40S.  THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD...WITH LOWS FROM
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.  BUT BY SATURDAY NIGHT...ALL LOCATIONS WILL
FREEZE...WITH THIS TO BE REPEATED SUNDAY NIGHT.  THE ADIRONDACKS AND
GREENS WILL HAVE LOCATIONS DOWN IN THE TEENS...BUT EVERYONE ELSE
WILL BE ABLE TO STAY UP IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S.  NORMAL HIGHS AT
ALBANY FOR THIS PERIOD ARE IN THE MID 50S...WITH NORMAL LOWS IN THE
MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 00Z WEDNESDAY.

MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES INTO THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD...BUT MOSTLY VFR CIGS EXPECTED. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR
WILL BE AT KPSF WHERE SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AND LOWER CIGS
ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING...WITH CIGS STAYING DOWN OVERNIGHT. THE
OTHER TAF SITES MIGHT SEE A STRAY SHOWER BUT CIG/VSBY SHOULD
REMAIN VFR. TUESDAY MORNING EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH A
THICKENING AND LOWERING MID CLOUD DECK BY NOON.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST THIS EVENING AT 7-14 KTS WITH
GUSTS TO 22 KTS AT KALB. THE WIND WILL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND
SPEEDS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY DIMINISH...DROPPING TO 5 TO 10 KTS BY
LATE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TONIGHT...BUT A DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING MORE CLOUDS TO OUR AREA...AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE FAR
SOUTH OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO BRING FAIR WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY.

RH VALUES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL MAXIMIZE BETWEEN 65 AND
95 PERCENT. MINIMUM RH VALUES TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL RANGE
BETWEEN 40 AND 60 PERCENT. MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WILL RANGE BETWEEN 25 AND 45 PERCENT.

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT 15 TO 25 MPH EARLY THIS EVENING WILL
DIMINISH TO AROUND 15 MPH TOWARD DAYBREAK. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD BE AROUND 15 MPH THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...THEN DIMINISH TO
LESS THAN 15 MPH TUESDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AT 15 TO 25 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WHICH
WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY
IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...11/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...SND/11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...SND/NAS



000
FXUS61 KALY 302305
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
705 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TONIGHT...BUT A DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING MORE CLOUDS TO OUR AREA...AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE FAR
SOUTH OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO BRING FAIR WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 625 PM EDT...GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE SPREADING ACROSS THE
REGION AS COLD ADVECTION BUILDS EAST. LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS/SNOW SHOWERS TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION...AND WILL TEND
TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THIS EVENING AND THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. WEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT
SHOULD NOT GO CALM. THE COMBINATION OF THE CLOUDS AND WINDS SHOULD
PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO MUCH. LOWS IN THE 20S TO
LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER IMPULSE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND NORTHERN MS RIVER VALLEY
TRACKS TOWARD OUR REGION TUESDAY...AND JUST BARELY SCRAPES
SOUTHERN AREAS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CLOUDS COULD
EXTEND NORTH THROUGH CENTRAL NY AND SOUTHERN VT. WINDS SHOULD BE
LIGHT. SO...HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 40S...WITH HIGHEST TEMPERATURES
POTENTIALLY IN NORTHERN AREAS WHERE SOME FILTERED SUN CAN OCCUR.
HIGHS IN THE 30S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH LIGHT RAIN
DEVELOPING IN THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON...SOME SNOW IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

ANY RAIN AND SNOW ENDS DURING THE EVENING...AND THERE COULD BE
AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW IN HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE CATSKILLS...
WITH MAYBE A DUSTING IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. CLOUDS
GRADUALLY EXIT THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND COLD ADVECTION SPREADS
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S...TEENS IN NORTHERN
AREAS...WHERE MOST CLEARING IS EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE AND SUNNY SKY EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH THE
COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE...EVEN WITH STRONG EARLY APRIL SUN...HIGHS
IN THE 40S...SOME 30S NORTHERN AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD
DURING WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS.
TEMPERATURES DROP TO LOWS IN THE 20S DURING THE EVENING...SOME
TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS. AFTER MIDNIGHT...SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AND LOW LEVEL WINDS TURN TO
LIGHT SOUTH. SO TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD STEADY OR RISE A COUPLE
OF DEGREES TOWARD DAYBREAK.

INTERVALS OF CLOUDS THURSDAY AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHIFT TO
WEST AND SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE RAPIDLY. BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES RISE QUICKLY THROUGH THE DAY AND THE TIGHTENING
THERMAL GRADIENT AND INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD SUPPORT
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. THERE ARE HINTS
THAT SOME OF THE CLOUD COVER COULD BREAK FOR A BRIEF TIME DURING
THE AFTERNOON BUT TIMING AND DURATION COULD BE TOO LATE AND TOO
SHORT TO BOOST TEMPERATURES BEYOND THE 50S...40S IN NORTHERN
AREAS. IF DOWNSLOPING AND LONGER PERIOD OF BREAKS IN CLOUDS
THURSDAY...OPTIMUM MIXING COULD SUPPORT TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S
IN SOME AREAS...BUT NO CLEAR SIGNAL FOR THAT KIND OF WARMTH. SO...
AGAIN...HIGHS THURSDAY WITH AFTERNOON ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS...IN THE 50S...WITH SOME 40S NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS FAST-MOVING SYSTEMS
CONTINUE... WITH MODELS FORECASTING NEITHER STRONG SYSTEMS NOR
STRONG AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE. THUS...THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN
SHOWERY...AND WITH FREQUENTLY MIXED PRECIPITATION TYPES DEPENDENT
UPON TIME OF DAY... TERRAIN...CLOUDINESS...AND THE COLD AIR IN
PLAY. THE EARLY PART OF THE PERIOD WILL SEE THIS ACTIVITY...WHILE
SUNDAY ON LOOKS TO BE DRY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PRESSING
SOUTHWARD WILL KEEP SIGNIFICANT CLOUDINESS IN THE ZONES...BUT
THERE SHOULD BE PLENTIFUL PERIODS OF SUNSHINE.

THE SIGNS OF SPRING WILL BE APPARENT...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.  AFTER THIS...
HOWEVER...READINGS RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S
AND 40S.  THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD...WITH LOWS FROM
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.  BUT BY SATURDAY NIGHT...ALL LOCATIONS WILL
FREEZE...WITH THIS TO BE REPEATED SUNDAY NIGHT.  THE ADIRONDACKS AND
GREENS WILL HAVE LOCATIONS DOWN IN THE TEENS...BUT EVERYONE ELSE
WILL BE ABLE TO STAY UP IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S.  NORMAL HIGHS AT
ALBANY FOR THIS PERIOD ARE IN THE MID 50S...WITH NORMAL LOWS IN THE
MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 00Z WEDNESDAY.

MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES INTO THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD...BUT MOSTLY VFR CIGS EXPECTED. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR
WILL BE AT KPSF WHERE SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AND LOWER CIGS
ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING...WITH CIGS STAYING DOWN OVERNIGHT. THE
OTHER TAF SITES MIGHT SEE A STRAY SHOWER BUT CIG/VSBY SHOULD
REMAIN VFR. TUESDAY MORNING EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH A
THICKENING AND LOWERING MID CLOUD DECK BY NOON.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST THIS EVENING AT 7-14 KTS WITH
GUSTS TO 22 KTS AT KALB. THE WIND WILL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND
SPEEDS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY DIMINISH...DROPPING TO 5 TO 10 KTS BY
LATE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TONIGHT...BUT A DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING MORE CLOUDS TO OUR AREA...AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE FAR
SOUTH OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO BRING FAIR WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY.

RH VALUES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL MAXIMIZE BETWEEN 65 AND
95 PERCENT. MINIMUM RH VALUES TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL RANGE
BETWEEN 40 AND 60 PERCENT. MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WILL RANGE BETWEEN 25 AND 45 PERCENT.

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT 15 TO 25 MPH EARLY THIS EVENING WILL
DIMINISH TO AROUND 15 MPH TOWARD DAYBREAK. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD BE AROUND 15 MPH THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...THEN DIMINISH TO
LESS THAN 15 MPH TUESDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AT 15 TO 25 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WHICH
WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY
IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...11/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...SND/11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...SND/NAS



000
FXUS61 KALY 302305
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
705 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TONIGHT...BUT A DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING MORE CLOUDS TO OUR AREA...AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE FAR
SOUTH OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO BRING FAIR WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 625 PM EDT...GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE SPREADING ACROSS THE
REGION AS COLD ADVECTION BUILDS EAST. LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS/SNOW SHOWERS TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION...AND WILL TEND
TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THIS EVENING AND THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. WEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT
SHOULD NOT GO CALM. THE COMBINATION OF THE CLOUDS AND WINDS SHOULD
PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO MUCH. LOWS IN THE 20S TO
LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER IMPULSE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND NORTHERN MS RIVER VALLEY
TRACKS TOWARD OUR REGION TUESDAY...AND JUST BARELY SCRAPES
SOUTHERN AREAS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CLOUDS COULD
EXTEND NORTH THROUGH CENTRAL NY AND SOUTHERN VT. WINDS SHOULD BE
LIGHT. SO...HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 40S...WITH HIGHEST TEMPERATURES
POTENTIALLY IN NORTHERN AREAS WHERE SOME FILTERED SUN CAN OCCUR.
HIGHS IN THE 30S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH LIGHT RAIN
DEVELOPING IN THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON...SOME SNOW IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

ANY RAIN AND SNOW ENDS DURING THE EVENING...AND THERE COULD BE
AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW IN HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE CATSKILLS...
WITH MAYBE A DUSTING IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. CLOUDS
GRADUALLY EXIT THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND COLD ADVECTION SPREADS
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S...TEENS IN NORTHERN
AREAS...WHERE MOST CLEARING IS EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE AND SUNNY SKY EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH THE
COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE...EVEN WITH STRONG EARLY APRIL SUN...HIGHS
IN THE 40S...SOME 30S NORTHERN AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD
DURING WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS.
TEMPERATURES DROP TO LOWS IN THE 20S DURING THE EVENING...SOME
TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS. AFTER MIDNIGHT...SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AND LOW LEVEL WINDS TURN TO
LIGHT SOUTH. SO TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD STEADY OR RISE A COUPLE
OF DEGREES TOWARD DAYBREAK.

INTERVALS OF CLOUDS THURSDAY AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHIFT TO
WEST AND SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE RAPIDLY. BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES RISE QUICKLY THROUGH THE DAY AND THE TIGHTENING
THERMAL GRADIENT AND INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD SUPPORT
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. THERE ARE HINTS
THAT SOME OF THE CLOUD COVER COULD BREAK FOR A BRIEF TIME DURING
THE AFTERNOON BUT TIMING AND DURATION COULD BE TOO LATE AND TOO
SHORT TO BOOST TEMPERATURES BEYOND THE 50S...40S IN NORTHERN
AREAS. IF DOWNSLOPING AND LONGER PERIOD OF BREAKS IN CLOUDS
THURSDAY...OPTIMUM MIXING COULD SUPPORT TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S
IN SOME AREAS...BUT NO CLEAR SIGNAL FOR THAT KIND OF WARMTH. SO...
AGAIN...HIGHS THURSDAY WITH AFTERNOON ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS...IN THE 50S...WITH SOME 40S NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS FAST-MOVING SYSTEMS
CONTINUE... WITH MODELS FORECASTING NEITHER STRONG SYSTEMS NOR
STRONG AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE. THUS...THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN
SHOWERY...AND WITH FREQUENTLY MIXED PRECIPITATION TYPES DEPENDENT
UPON TIME OF DAY... TERRAIN...CLOUDINESS...AND THE COLD AIR IN
PLAY. THE EARLY PART OF THE PERIOD WILL SEE THIS ACTIVITY...WHILE
SUNDAY ON LOOKS TO BE DRY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PRESSING
SOUTHWARD WILL KEEP SIGNIFICANT CLOUDINESS IN THE ZONES...BUT
THERE SHOULD BE PLENTIFUL PERIODS OF SUNSHINE.

THE SIGNS OF SPRING WILL BE APPARENT...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.  AFTER THIS...
HOWEVER...READINGS RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S
AND 40S.  THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD...WITH LOWS FROM
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.  BUT BY SATURDAY NIGHT...ALL LOCATIONS WILL
FREEZE...WITH THIS TO BE REPEATED SUNDAY NIGHT.  THE ADIRONDACKS AND
GREENS WILL HAVE LOCATIONS DOWN IN THE TEENS...BUT EVERYONE ELSE
WILL BE ABLE TO STAY UP IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S.  NORMAL HIGHS AT
ALBANY FOR THIS PERIOD ARE IN THE MID 50S...WITH NORMAL LOWS IN THE
MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 00Z WEDNESDAY.

MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES INTO THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD...BUT MOSTLY VFR CIGS EXPECTED. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR
WILL BE AT KPSF WHERE SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AND LOWER CIGS
ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING...WITH CIGS STAYING DOWN OVERNIGHT. THE
OTHER TAF SITES MIGHT SEE A STRAY SHOWER BUT CIG/VSBY SHOULD
REMAIN VFR. TUESDAY MORNING EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH A
THICKENING AND LOWERING MID CLOUD DECK BY NOON.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST THIS EVENING AT 7-14 KTS WITH
GUSTS TO 22 KTS AT KALB. THE WIND WILL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND
SPEEDS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY DIMINISH...DROPPING TO 5 TO 10 KTS BY
LATE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TONIGHT...BUT A DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING MORE CLOUDS TO OUR AREA...AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE FAR
SOUTH OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO BRING FAIR WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY.

RH VALUES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL MAXIMIZE BETWEEN 65 AND
95 PERCENT. MINIMUM RH VALUES TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL RANGE
BETWEEN 40 AND 60 PERCENT. MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WILL RANGE BETWEEN 25 AND 45 PERCENT.

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT 15 TO 25 MPH EARLY THIS EVENING WILL
DIMINISH TO AROUND 15 MPH TOWARD DAYBREAK. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD BE AROUND 15 MPH THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...THEN DIMINISH TO
LESS THAN 15 MPH TUESDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AT 15 TO 25 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WHICH
WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY
IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...11/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...SND/11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...SND/NAS



000
FXUS61 KALY 302305
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
705 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TONIGHT...BUT A DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING MORE CLOUDS TO OUR AREA...AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE FAR
SOUTH OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO BRING FAIR WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 625 PM EDT...GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE SPREADING ACROSS THE
REGION AS COLD ADVECTION BUILDS EAST. LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS/SNOW SHOWERS TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION...AND WILL TEND
TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THIS EVENING AND THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. WEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT
SHOULD NOT GO CALM. THE COMBINATION OF THE CLOUDS AND WINDS SHOULD
PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO MUCH. LOWS IN THE 20S TO
LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER IMPULSE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND NORTHERN MS RIVER VALLEY
TRACKS TOWARD OUR REGION TUESDAY...AND JUST BARELY SCRAPES
SOUTHERN AREAS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CLOUDS COULD
EXTEND NORTH THROUGH CENTRAL NY AND SOUTHERN VT. WINDS SHOULD BE
LIGHT. SO...HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 40S...WITH HIGHEST TEMPERATURES
POTENTIALLY IN NORTHERN AREAS WHERE SOME FILTERED SUN CAN OCCUR.
HIGHS IN THE 30S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH LIGHT RAIN
DEVELOPING IN THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON...SOME SNOW IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

ANY RAIN AND SNOW ENDS DURING THE EVENING...AND THERE COULD BE
AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW IN HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE CATSKILLS...
WITH MAYBE A DUSTING IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. CLOUDS
GRADUALLY EXIT THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND COLD ADVECTION SPREADS
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S...TEENS IN NORTHERN
AREAS...WHERE MOST CLEARING IS EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE AND SUNNY SKY EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH THE
COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE...EVEN WITH STRONG EARLY APRIL SUN...HIGHS
IN THE 40S...SOME 30S NORTHERN AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD
DURING WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS.
TEMPERATURES DROP TO LOWS IN THE 20S DURING THE EVENING...SOME
TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS. AFTER MIDNIGHT...SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AND LOW LEVEL WINDS TURN TO
LIGHT SOUTH. SO TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD STEADY OR RISE A COUPLE
OF DEGREES TOWARD DAYBREAK.

INTERVALS OF CLOUDS THURSDAY AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHIFT TO
WEST AND SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE RAPIDLY. BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES RISE QUICKLY THROUGH THE DAY AND THE TIGHTENING
THERMAL GRADIENT AND INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD SUPPORT
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. THERE ARE HINTS
THAT SOME OF THE CLOUD COVER COULD BREAK FOR A BRIEF TIME DURING
THE AFTERNOON BUT TIMING AND DURATION COULD BE TOO LATE AND TOO
SHORT TO BOOST TEMPERATURES BEYOND THE 50S...40S IN NORTHERN
AREAS. IF DOWNSLOPING AND LONGER PERIOD OF BREAKS IN CLOUDS
THURSDAY...OPTIMUM MIXING COULD SUPPORT TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S
IN SOME AREAS...BUT NO CLEAR SIGNAL FOR THAT KIND OF WARMTH. SO...
AGAIN...HIGHS THURSDAY WITH AFTERNOON ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS...IN THE 50S...WITH SOME 40S NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS FAST-MOVING SYSTEMS
CONTINUE... WITH MODELS FORECASTING NEITHER STRONG SYSTEMS NOR
STRONG AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE. THUS...THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN
SHOWERY...AND WITH FREQUENTLY MIXED PRECIPITATION TYPES DEPENDENT
UPON TIME OF DAY... TERRAIN...CLOUDINESS...AND THE COLD AIR IN
PLAY. THE EARLY PART OF THE PERIOD WILL SEE THIS ACTIVITY...WHILE
SUNDAY ON LOOKS TO BE DRY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PRESSING
SOUTHWARD WILL KEEP SIGNIFICANT CLOUDINESS IN THE ZONES...BUT
THERE SHOULD BE PLENTIFUL PERIODS OF SUNSHINE.

THE SIGNS OF SPRING WILL BE APPARENT...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.  AFTER THIS...
HOWEVER...READINGS RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S
AND 40S.  THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD...WITH LOWS FROM
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.  BUT BY SATURDAY NIGHT...ALL LOCATIONS WILL
FREEZE...WITH THIS TO BE REPEATED SUNDAY NIGHT.  THE ADIRONDACKS AND
GREENS WILL HAVE LOCATIONS DOWN IN THE TEENS...BUT EVERYONE ELSE
WILL BE ABLE TO STAY UP IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S.  NORMAL HIGHS AT
ALBANY FOR THIS PERIOD ARE IN THE MID 50S...WITH NORMAL LOWS IN THE
MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 00Z WEDNESDAY.

MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES INTO THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD...BUT MOSTLY VFR CIGS EXPECTED. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR
WILL BE AT KPSF WHERE SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AND LOWER CIGS
ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING...WITH CIGS STAYING DOWN OVERNIGHT. THE
OTHER TAF SITES MIGHT SEE A STRAY SHOWER BUT CIG/VSBY SHOULD
REMAIN VFR. TUESDAY MORNING EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH A
THICKENING AND LOWERING MID CLOUD DECK BY NOON.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST THIS EVENING AT 7-14 KTS WITH
GUSTS TO 22 KTS AT KALB. THE WIND WILL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND
SPEEDS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY DIMINISH...DROPPING TO 5 TO 10 KTS BY
LATE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TONIGHT...BUT A DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING MORE CLOUDS TO OUR AREA...AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE FAR
SOUTH OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO BRING FAIR WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY.

RH VALUES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL MAXIMIZE BETWEEN 65 AND
95 PERCENT. MINIMUM RH VALUES TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL RANGE
BETWEEN 40 AND 60 PERCENT. MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WILL RANGE BETWEEN 25 AND 45 PERCENT.

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT 15 TO 25 MPH EARLY THIS EVENING WILL
DIMINISH TO AROUND 15 MPH TOWARD DAYBREAK. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD BE AROUND 15 MPH THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...THEN DIMINISH TO
LESS THAN 15 MPH TUESDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AT 15 TO 25 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WHICH
WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY
IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...11/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...SND/11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...SND/NAS



000
FXUS61 KALY 302305
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
705 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TONIGHT...BUT A DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING MORE CLOUDS TO OUR AREA...AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE FAR
SOUTH OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO BRING FAIR WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 625 PM EDT...GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE SPREADING ACROSS THE
REGION AS COLD ADVECTION BUILDS EAST. LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS/SNOW SHOWERS TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION...AND WILL TEND
TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THIS EVENING AND THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. WEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT
SHOULD NOT GO CALM. THE COMBINATION OF THE CLOUDS AND WINDS SHOULD
PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO MUCH. LOWS IN THE 20S TO
LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER IMPULSE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND NORTHERN MS RIVER VALLEY
TRACKS TOWARD OUR REGION TUESDAY...AND JUST BARELY SCRAPES
SOUTHERN AREAS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CLOUDS COULD
EXTEND NORTH THROUGH CENTRAL NY AND SOUTHERN VT. WINDS SHOULD BE
LIGHT. SO...HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 40S...WITH HIGHEST TEMPERATURES
POTENTIALLY IN NORTHERN AREAS WHERE SOME FILTERED SUN CAN OCCUR.
HIGHS IN THE 30S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH LIGHT RAIN
DEVELOPING IN THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON...SOME SNOW IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

ANY RAIN AND SNOW ENDS DURING THE EVENING...AND THERE COULD BE
AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW IN HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE CATSKILLS...
WITH MAYBE A DUSTING IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. CLOUDS
GRADUALLY EXIT THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND COLD ADVECTION SPREADS
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S...TEENS IN NORTHERN
AREAS...WHERE MOST CLEARING IS EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE AND SUNNY SKY EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH THE
COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE...EVEN WITH STRONG EARLY APRIL SUN...HIGHS
IN THE 40S...SOME 30S NORTHERN AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD
DURING WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS.
TEMPERATURES DROP TO LOWS IN THE 20S DURING THE EVENING...SOME
TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS. AFTER MIDNIGHT...SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AND LOW LEVEL WINDS TURN TO
LIGHT SOUTH. SO TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD STEADY OR RISE A COUPLE
OF DEGREES TOWARD DAYBREAK.

INTERVALS OF CLOUDS THURSDAY AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHIFT TO
WEST AND SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE RAPIDLY. BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES RISE QUICKLY THROUGH THE DAY AND THE TIGHTENING
THERMAL GRADIENT AND INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD SUPPORT
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. THERE ARE HINTS
THAT SOME OF THE CLOUD COVER COULD BREAK FOR A BRIEF TIME DURING
THE AFTERNOON BUT TIMING AND DURATION COULD BE TOO LATE AND TOO
SHORT TO BOOST TEMPERATURES BEYOND THE 50S...40S IN NORTHERN
AREAS. IF DOWNSLOPING AND LONGER PERIOD OF BREAKS IN CLOUDS
THURSDAY...OPTIMUM MIXING COULD SUPPORT TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S
IN SOME AREAS...BUT NO CLEAR SIGNAL FOR THAT KIND OF WARMTH. SO...
AGAIN...HIGHS THURSDAY WITH AFTERNOON ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS...IN THE 50S...WITH SOME 40S NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS FAST-MOVING SYSTEMS
CONTINUE... WITH MODELS FORECASTING NEITHER STRONG SYSTEMS NOR
STRONG AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE. THUS...THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN
SHOWERY...AND WITH FREQUENTLY MIXED PRECIPITATION TYPES DEPENDENT
UPON TIME OF DAY... TERRAIN...CLOUDINESS...AND THE COLD AIR IN
PLAY. THE EARLY PART OF THE PERIOD WILL SEE THIS ACTIVITY...WHILE
SUNDAY ON LOOKS TO BE DRY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PRESSING
SOUTHWARD WILL KEEP SIGNIFICANT CLOUDINESS IN THE ZONES...BUT
THERE SHOULD BE PLENTIFUL PERIODS OF SUNSHINE.

THE SIGNS OF SPRING WILL BE APPARENT...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.  AFTER THIS...
HOWEVER...READINGS RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S
AND 40S.  THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD...WITH LOWS FROM
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.  BUT BY SATURDAY NIGHT...ALL LOCATIONS WILL
FREEZE...WITH THIS TO BE REPEATED SUNDAY NIGHT.  THE ADIRONDACKS AND
GREENS WILL HAVE LOCATIONS DOWN IN THE TEENS...BUT EVERYONE ELSE
WILL BE ABLE TO STAY UP IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S.  NORMAL HIGHS AT
ALBANY FOR THIS PERIOD ARE IN THE MID 50S...WITH NORMAL LOWS IN THE
MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 00Z WEDNESDAY.

MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES INTO THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD...BUT MOSTLY VFR CIGS EXPECTED. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR
WILL BE AT KPSF WHERE SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AND LOWER CIGS
ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING...WITH CIGS STAYING DOWN OVERNIGHT. THE
OTHER TAF SITES MIGHT SEE A STRAY SHOWER BUT CIG/VSBY SHOULD
REMAIN VFR. TUESDAY MORNING EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH A
THICKENING AND LOWERING MID CLOUD DECK BY NOON.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST THIS EVENING AT 7-14 KTS WITH
GUSTS TO 22 KTS AT KALB. THE WIND WILL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND
SPEEDS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY DIMINISH...DROPPING TO 5 TO 10 KTS BY
LATE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TONIGHT...BUT A DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING MORE CLOUDS TO OUR AREA...AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE FAR
SOUTH OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO BRING FAIR WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY.

RH VALUES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL MAXIMIZE BETWEEN 65 AND
95 PERCENT. MINIMUM RH VALUES TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL RANGE
BETWEEN 40 AND 60 PERCENT. MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WILL RANGE BETWEEN 25 AND 45 PERCENT.

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT 15 TO 25 MPH EARLY THIS EVENING WILL
DIMINISH TO AROUND 15 MPH TOWARD DAYBREAK. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD BE AROUND 15 MPH THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...THEN DIMINISH TO
LESS THAN 15 MPH TUESDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AT 15 TO 25 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WHICH
WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY
IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...11/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...SND/11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...SND/NAS




000
FXUS61 KBOX 302304
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
704 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A QUIET NIGHT OF WEATHER PRIOR TO A CLIPPER-LOW SWEEPING SOUTH OF
THE REGION BRINGING A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW TO SOUTHERN-MOST
PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND. WARMER TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE END OF
THIS WEEK THEN A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM MAY APPROACH LATE THIS
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
7 PM UPDATE...A FEW SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE BEHIND THE
FRONT...BUT OBSERVATIONS HAVE BEEN JUST A FEW MINUTES OF PRECIP
THEN COMING TO AN END. HAVE DECREASED POPS AS THESE SHOWERS ARE
FEW AND FAR BETWEEN AND MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY.
OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

QUIET WEATHER. SCATTERED RAIN / SNOW SHOWERS CONCLUDE WITH ONLY
REMNANT MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS REMAINING. BREEZY W-WINDS WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. COLD AIR ADVECTION IN WAKE
OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION INTO THIS EVENING.
EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DROP TO AROUND THE LOW-30S...NEAR-
SEASONABLE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...

DEPENDENCE OF THE FORECAST UPON THE TRACK OF THE CLIPPER DISTURBANCE
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE BROADER CYCLONIC FLOW AND ITS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE REFLECTION IN AREAS OF FAVORABLE BAROCLINICITY / THERMAL
PACKING. THE CLOSER TO THE S NEW ENGLAND SHORELINE...THE GREATER THE
IMPACT. WENT WITH A CONSENSUS BLEND OF THE FORECAST GUIDANCE NOTING
THE EC / NAM ALONG THE N-END OF THE ENVELOP WITH ALL OTHER FORECAST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A SWING AND A MISS.

FORECAST GUIDANCE CONSENSUS HAS CLIPPER LOW TRACK OFF THE DELMARVA
COAST ALONG A W-E ZONAL-FLOW. OVER-RUNNING PRECIPITATION APPEARS
LARGELY ABSENT THOUGH W-E SETUP...DISCREET OUTCOMES APPARENT WITH
FRONTOGENETICAL BANDING ALONG THE PARENT WARM FRONT TO THE CLIPPER
LOW AROUND H7-8. IN ADDITION BETTER MOISTURE AND QG-FORCING MAINTAIN
S OF NEW ENGLAND PARENT WITH THE LOW WITH CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE.

SO FEEL THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE. ANY ACTIVITY
WILL BE LIGHT MOSTLY S OF THE MASS-PIKE. SUBSEQUENTLY WITH DRY LOW-
LEVELS AT ONSET FEEL WETBULBING / DYNAMIC COOLING OF LOW-LEVELS WILL
BE MINIMAL AGAINST HIGHS THAT ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE LOW- TO
MID-40S WITH DAYTIME HEATING PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF THE STORM WHICH
IS EXPECTED TO BE LATE. YET PROCEEDING INTO A EVENING ALONG WITH AN
ISALLOBARIC RESPONSE OF WINDS THAT WILL FUNNEL OUT OF THE N ABSENT
OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE...FEEL PRECIP-TYPE WILL VARY BETWEEN RAIN /
SNOW FROM WHICH AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION.
IF ANY...A TRACE AT MOST ON LINGERING SNOWPACK / ELEVATED SURFACES.

GREATEST IMPACTS WILL BE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S-COAST AND ISLANDS.
MAJORITY OF THE IMPACTS WILL BE DUE TO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WITH
SNOW...IF ANYTHING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MODERATING MORE SPRING-LIKE TEMPS LATE THIS WEEK
* INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND

DISCUSSION...

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE BROAD SCALE WITH SOME EXPECTED
DETAIL DIFFERENCES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS WITH ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE CENTERS/COLD FRONTS MOVING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
THIS WILL BRING SEVERAL CHANCES OF RAIN TO THE REGION THROUGHOUT
THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BRINGING
DRY WEATHER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO QUEBEC. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL BUT ONLY BY A FEW DEGREES. EXCELLENT MIXING...
COUPLED WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL LIKELY RESULT IN GUSTY
WINDS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...TWO SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND THEIR
ATTENDANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES...BRINGING A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. AT THIS POINT...LOOKING AT MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS WITH
AROUND AN INCH OF QPF. THERE ARE STILL DETAIL DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS FOR THIS PERIOD SO QPF AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE.

WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE FRIDAY WHEN THEY WILL ACTUALLY
CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL...POSSIBLY GIVING US OUR FIRST 60+ DEGREE DAY OF
THE SPRING. TEMPERATURES FALL SATURDAY...DROPPING BACK BELOW NORMAL
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT TRAILS THE LAST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES
WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY APRIL.

MONDAY...ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GREAT
LAKES...PUSHING HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE. TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO
MODERATE ONCE AGAIN...CREEPING BACK TOWARDS NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

00Z UPDATE...

LINGERING SCT -SHRA/-SHSN CONCLUDING TOWARDS 02Z. VFR. COLD FRONT
SWEEPS ACROSS THE TERMINALS LATE INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEHIND
WHICH WINDS VEER W/NW. GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...

STORM SWEEPING S OF NEW ENGLAND. LOWEST CONDITIONS ACROSS S-MOST
NEW ENGLAND WITH POTENTIAL IFR WITH -SN. OTHERWISE LOW-END VFR /
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS MOSTLY S OF THE CT-RI-MA BORDER. N/NW WINDS
INCREASING LATE WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS FOR COASTAL TERMINALS.

KBOS TAF...GUSTY W-WINDS OVERNIGHT.

KBDL TAF...QUIET WEATHER PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY IN RAIN SHOWERS. IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY NIGHT IN FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

COLD FRONT SWEEPING THE WATERS DURING THE EVENING HRS. SW-WINDS
BACKING NW DURING WHICH TIME GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
SEAS ABOVE 5 FEET MAINLY ON THE OUTER WATERS...THOUGH COULD BE
SOME LINGERING ISSUES FOR RI / BI SOUND.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...

STORM SYSTEM SWEEPS S OF NEW ENGLAND. N/NW FLOW...WHICH WILL
INCREASE TOWARDS THE LATER HALF OF THE PERIOD. WILL BE A LULL IN
WIND AND WAVE ACTION DURING WHICH TIME A RAIN / SNOW MIX WILL BE
AN ISSUE MOSTLY FOR THE S-WATERS WITH POTENTIAL VISIBILITY IMPACT.
THEN WAVES INCREASE IN EXCESS OF 5-FEET WITH ENHANCING N/NW-FLOW.

SMALL-CRAFT HEADLINES CONTINUE FOR THE OUTER WATERS THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD...WHILE INNER-WATERS EXPIRE OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE WATERS. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST DIMINISHING
THROUGH THE PERIOD. OCCASIONAL 25 KT GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE
OUTER WATERS AT TIMES.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...SEAS INCREASE AS TWO SEPARATE LOW
PRESSURE CENTERS AND THEIR COLD FRONTS APPROACH THE WATERS.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 15 TO 20 KTS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY
MORNING. GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY FOR BOTH WINDS AND SEAS AT LEAST ON THE
OUTER WATERS...IF NOT ON THE INTERIOR BAYS AND SOUNDS AT TIMES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ231-232.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ233-234-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...RLG/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...RLG/SIPPRELL
MARINE...RLG/SIPPRELL




000
FXUS61 KBOX 302304
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
704 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A QUIET NIGHT OF WEATHER PRIOR TO A CLIPPER-LOW SWEEPING SOUTH OF
THE REGION BRINGING A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW TO SOUTHERN-MOST
PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND. WARMER TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE END OF
THIS WEEK THEN A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM MAY APPROACH LATE THIS
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
7 PM UPDATE...A FEW SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE BEHIND THE
FRONT...BUT OBSERVATIONS HAVE BEEN JUST A FEW MINUTES OF PRECIP
THEN COMING TO AN END. HAVE DECREASED POPS AS THESE SHOWERS ARE
FEW AND FAR BETWEEN AND MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY.
OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

QUIET WEATHER. SCATTERED RAIN / SNOW SHOWERS CONCLUDE WITH ONLY
REMNANT MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS REMAINING. BREEZY W-WINDS WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. COLD AIR ADVECTION IN WAKE
OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION INTO THIS EVENING.
EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DROP TO AROUND THE LOW-30S...NEAR-
SEASONABLE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...

DEPENDENCE OF THE FORECAST UPON THE TRACK OF THE CLIPPER DISTURBANCE
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE BROADER CYCLONIC FLOW AND ITS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE REFLECTION IN AREAS OF FAVORABLE BAROCLINICITY / THERMAL
PACKING. THE CLOSER TO THE S NEW ENGLAND SHORELINE...THE GREATER THE
IMPACT. WENT WITH A CONSENSUS BLEND OF THE FORECAST GUIDANCE NOTING
THE EC / NAM ALONG THE N-END OF THE ENVELOP WITH ALL OTHER FORECAST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A SWING AND A MISS.

FORECAST GUIDANCE CONSENSUS HAS CLIPPER LOW TRACK OFF THE DELMARVA
COAST ALONG A W-E ZONAL-FLOW. OVER-RUNNING PRECIPITATION APPEARS
LARGELY ABSENT THOUGH W-E SETUP...DISCREET OUTCOMES APPARENT WITH
FRONTOGENETICAL BANDING ALONG THE PARENT WARM FRONT TO THE CLIPPER
LOW AROUND H7-8. IN ADDITION BETTER MOISTURE AND QG-FORCING MAINTAIN
S OF NEW ENGLAND PARENT WITH THE LOW WITH CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE.

SO FEEL THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE. ANY ACTIVITY
WILL BE LIGHT MOSTLY S OF THE MASS-PIKE. SUBSEQUENTLY WITH DRY LOW-
LEVELS AT ONSET FEEL WETBULBING / DYNAMIC COOLING OF LOW-LEVELS WILL
BE MINIMAL AGAINST HIGHS THAT ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE LOW- TO
MID-40S WITH DAYTIME HEATING PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF THE STORM WHICH
IS EXPECTED TO BE LATE. YET PROCEEDING INTO A EVENING ALONG WITH AN
ISALLOBARIC RESPONSE OF WINDS THAT WILL FUNNEL OUT OF THE N ABSENT
OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE...FEEL PRECIP-TYPE WILL VARY BETWEEN RAIN /
SNOW FROM WHICH AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION.
IF ANY...A TRACE AT MOST ON LINGERING SNOWPACK / ELEVATED SURFACES.

GREATEST IMPACTS WILL BE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S-COAST AND ISLANDS.
MAJORITY OF THE IMPACTS WILL BE DUE TO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WITH
SNOW...IF ANYTHING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MODERATING MORE SPRING-LIKE TEMPS LATE THIS WEEK
* INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND

DISCUSSION...

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE BROAD SCALE WITH SOME EXPECTED
DETAIL DIFFERENCES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS WITH ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE CENTERS/COLD FRONTS MOVING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
THIS WILL BRING SEVERAL CHANCES OF RAIN TO THE REGION THROUGHOUT
THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BRINGING
DRY WEATHER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO QUEBEC. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL BUT ONLY BY A FEW DEGREES. EXCELLENT MIXING...
COUPLED WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL LIKELY RESULT IN GUSTY
WINDS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...TWO SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND THEIR
ATTENDANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES...BRINGING A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. AT THIS POINT...LOOKING AT MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS WITH
AROUND AN INCH OF QPF. THERE ARE STILL DETAIL DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS FOR THIS PERIOD SO QPF AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE.

WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE FRIDAY WHEN THEY WILL ACTUALLY
CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL...POSSIBLY GIVING US OUR FIRST 60+ DEGREE DAY OF
THE SPRING. TEMPERATURES FALL SATURDAY...DROPPING BACK BELOW NORMAL
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT TRAILS THE LAST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES
WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY APRIL.

MONDAY...ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GREAT
LAKES...PUSHING HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE. TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO
MODERATE ONCE AGAIN...CREEPING BACK TOWARDS NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

00Z UPDATE...

LINGERING SCT -SHRA/-SHSN CONCLUDING TOWARDS 02Z. VFR. COLD FRONT
SWEEPS ACROSS THE TERMINALS LATE INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEHIND
WHICH WINDS VEER W/NW. GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...

STORM SWEEPING S OF NEW ENGLAND. LOWEST CONDITIONS ACROSS S-MOST
NEW ENGLAND WITH POTENTIAL IFR WITH -SN. OTHERWISE LOW-END VFR /
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS MOSTLY S OF THE CT-RI-MA BORDER. N/NW WINDS
INCREASING LATE WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS FOR COASTAL TERMINALS.

KBOS TAF...GUSTY W-WINDS OVERNIGHT.

KBDL TAF...QUIET WEATHER PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY IN RAIN SHOWERS. IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY NIGHT IN FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

COLD FRONT SWEEPING THE WATERS DURING THE EVENING HRS. SW-WINDS
BACKING NW DURING WHICH TIME GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
SEAS ABOVE 5 FEET MAINLY ON THE OUTER WATERS...THOUGH COULD BE
SOME LINGERING ISSUES FOR RI / BI SOUND.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...

STORM SYSTEM SWEEPS S OF NEW ENGLAND. N/NW FLOW...WHICH WILL
INCREASE TOWARDS THE LATER HALF OF THE PERIOD. WILL BE A LULL IN
WIND AND WAVE ACTION DURING WHICH TIME A RAIN / SNOW MIX WILL BE
AN ISSUE MOSTLY FOR THE S-WATERS WITH POTENTIAL VISIBILITY IMPACT.
THEN WAVES INCREASE IN EXCESS OF 5-FEET WITH ENHANCING N/NW-FLOW.

SMALL-CRAFT HEADLINES CONTINUE FOR THE OUTER WATERS THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD...WHILE INNER-WATERS EXPIRE OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE WATERS. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST DIMINISHING
THROUGH THE PERIOD. OCCASIONAL 25 KT GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE
OUTER WATERS AT TIMES.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...SEAS INCREASE AS TWO SEPARATE LOW
PRESSURE CENTERS AND THEIR COLD FRONTS APPROACH THE WATERS.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 15 TO 20 KTS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY
MORNING. GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY FOR BOTH WINDS AND SEAS AT LEAST ON THE
OUTER WATERS...IF NOT ON THE INTERIOR BAYS AND SOUNDS AT TIMES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ231-232.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ233-234-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...RLG/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...RLG/SIPPRELL
MARINE...RLG/SIPPRELL



000
FXUS61 KBOX 302304
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
704 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A QUIET NIGHT OF WEATHER PRIOR TO A CLIPPER-LOW SWEEPING SOUTH OF
THE REGION BRINGING A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW TO SOUTHERN-MOST
PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND. WARMER TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE END OF
THIS WEEK THEN A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM MAY APPROACH LATE THIS
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
7 PM UPDATE...A FEW SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE BEHIND THE
FRONT...BUT OBSERVATIONS HAVE BEEN JUST A FEW MINUTES OF PRECIP
THEN COMING TO AN END. HAVE DECREASED POPS AS THESE SHOWERS ARE
FEW AND FAR BETWEEN AND MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY.
OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

QUIET WEATHER. SCATTERED RAIN / SNOW SHOWERS CONCLUDE WITH ONLY
REMNANT MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS REMAINING. BREEZY W-WINDS WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. COLD AIR ADVECTION IN WAKE
OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION INTO THIS EVENING.
EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DROP TO AROUND THE LOW-30S...NEAR-
SEASONABLE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...

DEPENDENCE OF THE FORECAST UPON THE TRACK OF THE CLIPPER DISTURBANCE
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE BROADER CYCLONIC FLOW AND ITS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE REFLECTION IN AREAS OF FAVORABLE BAROCLINICITY / THERMAL
PACKING. THE CLOSER TO THE S NEW ENGLAND SHORELINE...THE GREATER THE
IMPACT. WENT WITH A CONSENSUS BLEND OF THE FORECAST GUIDANCE NOTING
THE EC / NAM ALONG THE N-END OF THE ENVELOP WITH ALL OTHER FORECAST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A SWING AND A MISS.

FORECAST GUIDANCE CONSENSUS HAS CLIPPER LOW TRACK OFF THE DELMARVA
COAST ALONG A W-E ZONAL-FLOW. OVER-RUNNING PRECIPITATION APPEARS
LARGELY ABSENT THOUGH W-E SETUP...DISCREET OUTCOMES APPARENT WITH
FRONTOGENETICAL BANDING ALONG THE PARENT WARM FRONT TO THE CLIPPER
LOW AROUND H7-8. IN ADDITION BETTER MOISTURE AND QG-FORCING MAINTAIN
S OF NEW ENGLAND PARENT WITH THE LOW WITH CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE.

SO FEEL THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE. ANY ACTIVITY
WILL BE LIGHT MOSTLY S OF THE MASS-PIKE. SUBSEQUENTLY WITH DRY LOW-
LEVELS AT ONSET FEEL WETBULBING / DYNAMIC COOLING OF LOW-LEVELS WILL
BE MINIMAL AGAINST HIGHS THAT ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE LOW- TO
MID-40S WITH DAYTIME HEATING PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF THE STORM WHICH
IS EXPECTED TO BE LATE. YET PROCEEDING INTO A EVENING ALONG WITH AN
ISALLOBARIC RESPONSE OF WINDS THAT WILL FUNNEL OUT OF THE N ABSENT
OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE...FEEL PRECIP-TYPE WILL VARY BETWEEN RAIN /
SNOW FROM WHICH AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION.
IF ANY...A TRACE AT MOST ON LINGERING SNOWPACK / ELEVATED SURFACES.

GREATEST IMPACTS WILL BE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S-COAST AND ISLANDS.
MAJORITY OF THE IMPACTS WILL BE DUE TO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WITH
SNOW...IF ANYTHING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MODERATING MORE SPRING-LIKE TEMPS LATE THIS WEEK
* INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND

DISCUSSION...

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE BROAD SCALE WITH SOME EXPECTED
DETAIL DIFFERENCES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS WITH ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE CENTERS/COLD FRONTS MOVING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
THIS WILL BRING SEVERAL CHANCES OF RAIN TO THE REGION THROUGHOUT
THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BRINGING
DRY WEATHER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO QUEBEC. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL BUT ONLY BY A FEW DEGREES. EXCELLENT MIXING...
COUPLED WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL LIKELY RESULT IN GUSTY
WINDS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...TWO SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND THEIR
ATTENDANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES...BRINGING A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. AT THIS POINT...LOOKING AT MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS WITH
AROUND AN INCH OF QPF. THERE ARE STILL DETAIL DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS FOR THIS PERIOD SO QPF AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE.

WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE FRIDAY WHEN THEY WILL ACTUALLY
CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL...POSSIBLY GIVING US OUR FIRST 60+ DEGREE DAY OF
THE SPRING. TEMPERATURES FALL SATURDAY...DROPPING BACK BELOW NORMAL
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT TRAILS THE LAST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES
WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY APRIL.

MONDAY...ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GREAT
LAKES...PUSHING HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE. TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO
MODERATE ONCE AGAIN...CREEPING BACK TOWARDS NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

00Z UPDATE...

LINGERING SCT -SHRA/-SHSN CONCLUDING TOWARDS 02Z. VFR. COLD FRONT
SWEEPS ACROSS THE TERMINALS LATE INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEHIND
WHICH WINDS VEER W/NW. GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...

STORM SWEEPING S OF NEW ENGLAND. LOWEST CONDITIONS ACROSS S-MOST
NEW ENGLAND WITH POTENTIAL IFR WITH -SN. OTHERWISE LOW-END VFR /
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS MOSTLY S OF THE CT-RI-MA BORDER. N/NW WINDS
INCREASING LATE WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS FOR COASTAL TERMINALS.

KBOS TAF...GUSTY W-WINDS OVERNIGHT.

KBDL TAF...QUIET WEATHER PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY IN RAIN SHOWERS. IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY NIGHT IN FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

COLD FRONT SWEEPING THE WATERS DURING THE EVENING HRS. SW-WINDS
BACKING NW DURING WHICH TIME GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
SEAS ABOVE 5 FEET MAINLY ON THE OUTER WATERS...THOUGH COULD BE
SOME LINGERING ISSUES FOR RI / BI SOUND.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...

STORM SYSTEM SWEEPS S OF NEW ENGLAND. N/NW FLOW...WHICH WILL
INCREASE TOWARDS THE LATER HALF OF THE PERIOD. WILL BE A LULL IN
WIND AND WAVE ACTION DURING WHICH TIME A RAIN / SNOW MIX WILL BE
AN ISSUE MOSTLY FOR THE S-WATERS WITH POTENTIAL VISIBILITY IMPACT.
THEN WAVES INCREASE IN EXCESS OF 5-FEET WITH ENHANCING N/NW-FLOW.

SMALL-CRAFT HEADLINES CONTINUE FOR THE OUTER WATERS THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD...WHILE INNER-WATERS EXPIRE OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE WATERS. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST DIMINISHING
THROUGH THE PERIOD. OCCASIONAL 25 KT GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE
OUTER WATERS AT TIMES.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...SEAS INCREASE AS TWO SEPARATE LOW
PRESSURE CENTERS AND THEIR COLD FRONTS APPROACH THE WATERS.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 15 TO 20 KTS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY
MORNING. GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY FOR BOTH WINDS AND SEAS AT LEAST ON THE
OUTER WATERS...IF NOT ON THE INTERIOR BAYS AND SOUNDS AT TIMES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ231-232.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ233-234-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...RLG/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...RLG/SIPPRELL
MARINE...RLG/SIPPRELL



000
FXUS61 KBOX 302304
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
704 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A QUIET NIGHT OF WEATHER PRIOR TO A CLIPPER-LOW SWEEPING SOUTH OF
THE REGION BRINGING A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW TO SOUTHERN-MOST
PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND. WARMER TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE END OF
THIS WEEK THEN A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM MAY APPROACH LATE THIS
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
7 PM UPDATE...A FEW SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE BEHIND THE
FRONT...BUT OBSERVATIONS HAVE BEEN JUST A FEW MINUTES OF PRECIP
THEN COMING TO AN END. HAVE DECREASED POPS AS THESE SHOWERS ARE
FEW AND FAR BETWEEN AND MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY.
OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

QUIET WEATHER. SCATTERED RAIN / SNOW SHOWERS CONCLUDE WITH ONLY
REMNANT MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS REMAINING. BREEZY W-WINDS WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. COLD AIR ADVECTION IN WAKE
OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION INTO THIS EVENING.
EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DROP TO AROUND THE LOW-30S...NEAR-
SEASONABLE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...

DEPENDENCE OF THE FORECAST UPON THE TRACK OF THE CLIPPER DISTURBANCE
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE BROADER CYCLONIC FLOW AND ITS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE REFLECTION IN AREAS OF FAVORABLE BAROCLINICITY / THERMAL
PACKING. THE CLOSER TO THE S NEW ENGLAND SHORELINE...THE GREATER THE
IMPACT. WENT WITH A CONSENSUS BLEND OF THE FORECAST GUIDANCE NOTING
THE EC / NAM ALONG THE N-END OF THE ENVELOP WITH ALL OTHER FORECAST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A SWING AND A MISS.

FORECAST GUIDANCE CONSENSUS HAS CLIPPER LOW TRACK OFF THE DELMARVA
COAST ALONG A W-E ZONAL-FLOW. OVER-RUNNING PRECIPITATION APPEARS
LARGELY ABSENT THOUGH W-E SETUP...DISCREET OUTCOMES APPARENT WITH
FRONTOGENETICAL BANDING ALONG THE PARENT WARM FRONT TO THE CLIPPER
LOW AROUND H7-8. IN ADDITION BETTER MOISTURE AND QG-FORCING MAINTAIN
S OF NEW ENGLAND PARENT WITH THE LOW WITH CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE.

SO FEEL THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE. ANY ACTIVITY
WILL BE LIGHT MOSTLY S OF THE MASS-PIKE. SUBSEQUENTLY WITH DRY LOW-
LEVELS AT ONSET FEEL WETBULBING / DYNAMIC COOLING OF LOW-LEVELS WILL
BE MINIMAL AGAINST HIGHS THAT ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE LOW- TO
MID-40S WITH DAYTIME HEATING PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF THE STORM WHICH
IS EXPECTED TO BE LATE. YET PROCEEDING INTO A EVENING ALONG WITH AN
ISALLOBARIC RESPONSE OF WINDS THAT WILL FUNNEL OUT OF THE N ABSENT
OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE...FEEL PRECIP-TYPE WILL VARY BETWEEN RAIN /
SNOW FROM WHICH AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION.
IF ANY...A TRACE AT MOST ON LINGERING SNOWPACK / ELEVATED SURFACES.

GREATEST IMPACTS WILL BE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S-COAST AND ISLANDS.
MAJORITY OF THE IMPACTS WILL BE DUE TO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WITH
SNOW...IF ANYTHING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MODERATING MORE SPRING-LIKE TEMPS LATE THIS WEEK
* INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND

DISCUSSION...

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE BROAD SCALE WITH SOME EXPECTED
DETAIL DIFFERENCES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS WITH ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE CENTERS/COLD FRONTS MOVING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
THIS WILL BRING SEVERAL CHANCES OF RAIN TO THE REGION THROUGHOUT
THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BRINGING
DRY WEATHER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO QUEBEC. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL BUT ONLY BY A FEW DEGREES. EXCELLENT MIXING...
COUPLED WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL LIKELY RESULT IN GUSTY
WINDS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...TWO SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND THEIR
ATTENDANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES...BRINGING A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. AT THIS POINT...LOOKING AT MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS WITH
AROUND AN INCH OF QPF. THERE ARE STILL DETAIL DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS FOR THIS PERIOD SO QPF AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE.

WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE FRIDAY WHEN THEY WILL ACTUALLY
CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL...POSSIBLY GIVING US OUR FIRST 60+ DEGREE DAY OF
THE SPRING. TEMPERATURES FALL SATURDAY...DROPPING BACK BELOW NORMAL
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT TRAILS THE LAST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES
WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY APRIL.

MONDAY...ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GREAT
LAKES...PUSHING HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE. TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO
MODERATE ONCE AGAIN...CREEPING BACK TOWARDS NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

00Z UPDATE...

LINGERING SCT -SHRA/-SHSN CONCLUDING TOWARDS 02Z. VFR. COLD FRONT
SWEEPS ACROSS THE TERMINALS LATE INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEHIND
WHICH WINDS VEER W/NW. GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...

STORM SWEEPING S OF NEW ENGLAND. LOWEST CONDITIONS ACROSS S-MOST
NEW ENGLAND WITH POTENTIAL IFR WITH -SN. OTHERWISE LOW-END VFR /
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS MOSTLY S OF THE CT-RI-MA BORDER. N/NW WINDS
INCREASING LATE WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS FOR COASTAL TERMINALS.

KBOS TAF...GUSTY W-WINDS OVERNIGHT.

KBDL TAF...QUIET WEATHER PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY IN RAIN SHOWERS. IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY NIGHT IN FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

COLD FRONT SWEEPING THE WATERS DURING THE EVENING HRS. SW-WINDS
BACKING NW DURING WHICH TIME GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
SEAS ABOVE 5 FEET MAINLY ON THE OUTER WATERS...THOUGH COULD BE
SOME LINGERING ISSUES FOR RI / BI SOUND.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...

STORM SYSTEM SWEEPS S OF NEW ENGLAND. N/NW FLOW...WHICH WILL
INCREASE TOWARDS THE LATER HALF OF THE PERIOD. WILL BE A LULL IN
WIND AND WAVE ACTION DURING WHICH TIME A RAIN / SNOW MIX WILL BE
AN ISSUE MOSTLY FOR THE S-WATERS WITH POTENTIAL VISIBILITY IMPACT.
THEN WAVES INCREASE IN EXCESS OF 5-FEET WITH ENHANCING N/NW-FLOW.

SMALL-CRAFT HEADLINES CONTINUE FOR THE OUTER WATERS THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD...WHILE INNER-WATERS EXPIRE OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE WATERS. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST DIMINISHING
THROUGH THE PERIOD. OCCASIONAL 25 KT GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE
OUTER WATERS AT TIMES.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...SEAS INCREASE AS TWO SEPARATE LOW
PRESSURE CENTERS AND THEIR COLD FRONTS APPROACH THE WATERS.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 15 TO 20 KTS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY
MORNING. GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY FOR BOTH WINDS AND SEAS AT LEAST ON THE
OUTER WATERS...IF NOT ON THE INTERIOR BAYS AND SOUNDS AT TIMES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ231-232.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ233-234-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...RLG/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...RLG/SIPPRELL
MARINE...RLG/SIPPRELL



000
FXUS61 KBOX 302304
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
704 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A QUIET NIGHT OF WEATHER PRIOR TO A CLIPPER-LOW SWEEPING SOUTH OF
THE REGION BRINGING A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW TO SOUTHERN-MOST
PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND. WARMER TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE END OF
THIS WEEK THEN A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM MAY APPROACH LATE THIS
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
7 PM UPDATE...A FEW SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE BEHIND THE
FRONT...BUT OBSERVATIONS HAVE BEEN JUST A FEW MINUTES OF PRECIP
THEN COMING TO AN END. HAVE DECREASED POPS AS THESE SHOWERS ARE
FEW AND FAR BETWEEN AND MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY.
OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

QUIET WEATHER. SCATTERED RAIN / SNOW SHOWERS CONCLUDE WITH ONLY
REMNANT MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS REMAINING. BREEZY W-WINDS WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. COLD AIR ADVECTION IN WAKE
OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION INTO THIS EVENING.
EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DROP TO AROUND THE LOW-30S...NEAR-
SEASONABLE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...

DEPENDENCE OF THE FORECAST UPON THE TRACK OF THE CLIPPER DISTURBANCE
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE BROADER CYCLONIC FLOW AND ITS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE REFLECTION IN AREAS OF FAVORABLE BAROCLINICITY / THERMAL
PACKING. THE CLOSER TO THE S NEW ENGLAND SHORELINE...THE GREATER THE
IMPACT. WENT WITH A CONSENSUS BLEND OF THE FORECAST GUIDANCE NOTING
THE EC / NAM ALONG THE N-END OF THE ENVELOP WITH ALL OTHER FORECAST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A SWING AND A MISS.

FORECAST GUIDANCE CONSENSUS HAS CLIPPER LOW TRACK OFF THE DELMARVA
COAST ALONG A W-E ZONAL-FLOW. OVER-RUNNING PRECIPITATION APPEARS
LARGELY ABSENT THOUGH W-E SETUP...DISCREET OUTCOMES APPARENT WITH
FRONTOGENETICAL BANDING ALONG THE PARENT WARM FRONT TO THE CLIPPER
LOW AROUND H7-8. IN ADDITION BETTER MOISTURE AND QG-FORCING MAINTAIN
S OF NEW ENGLAND PARENT WITH THE LOW WITH CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE.

SO FEEL THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE. ANY ACTIVITY
WILL BE LIGHT MOSTLY S OF THE MASS-PIKE. SUBSEQUENTLY WITH DRY LOW-
LEVELS AT ONSET FEEL WETBULBING / DYNAMIC COOLING OF LOW-LEVELS WILL
BE MINIMAL AGAINST HIGHS THAT ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE LOW- TO
MID-40S WITH DAYTIME HEATING PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF THE STORM WHICH
IS EXPECTED TO BE LATE. YET PROCEEDING INTO A EVENING ALONG WITH AN
ISALLOBARIC RESPONSE OF WINDS THAT WILL FUNNEL OUT OF THE N ABSENT
OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE...FEEL PRECIP-TYPE WILL VARY BETWEEN RAIN /
SNOW FROM WHICH AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION.
IF ANY...A TRACE AT MOST ON LINGERING SNOWPACK / ELEVATED SURFACES.

GREATEST IMPACTS WILL BE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S-COAST AND ISLANDS.
MAJORITY OF THE IMPACTS WILL BE DUE TO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WITH
SNOW...IF ANYTHING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MODERATING MORE SPRING-LIKE TEMPS LATE THIS WEEK
* INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND

DISCUSSION...

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE BROAD SCALE WITH SOME EXPECTED
DETAIL DIFFERENCES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS WITH ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE CENTERS/COLD FRONTS MOVING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
THIS WILL BRING SEVERAL CHANCES OF RAIN TO THE REGION THROUGHOUT
THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BRINGING
DRY WEATHER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO QUEBEC. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL BUT ONLY BY A FEW DEGREES. EXCELLENT MIXING...
COUPLED WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL LIKELY RESULT IN GUSTY
WINDS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...TWO SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND THEIR
ATTENDANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES...BRINGING A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. AT THIS POINT...LOOKING AT MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS WITH
AROUND AN INCH OF QPF. THERE ARE STILL DETAIL DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS FOR THIS PERIOD SO QPF AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE.

WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE FRIDAY WHEN THEY WILL ACTUALLY
CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL...POSSIBLY GIVING US OUR FIRST 60+ DEGREE DAY OF
THE SPRING. TEMPERATURES FALL SATURDAY...DROPPING BACK BELOW NORMAL
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT TRAILS THE LAST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES
WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY APRIL.

MONDAY...ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GREAT
LAKES...PUSHING HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE. TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO
MODERATE ONCE AGAIN...CREEPING BACK TOWARDS NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

00Z UPDATE...

LINGERING SCT -SHRA/-SHSN CONCLUDING TOWARDS 02Z. VFR. COLD FRONT
SWEEPS ACROSS THE TERMINALS LATE INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEHIND
WHICH WINDS VEER W/NW. GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...

STORM SWEEPING S OF NEW ENGLAND. LOWEST CONDITIONS ACROSS S-MOST
NEW ENGLAND WITH POTENTIAL IFR WITH -SN. OTHERWISE LOW-END VFR /
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS MOSTLY S OF THE CT-RI-MA BORDER. N/NW WINDS
INCREASING LATE WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS FOR COASTAL TERMINALS.

KBOS TAF...GUSTY W-WINDS OVERNIGHT.

KBDL TAF...QUIET WEATHER PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY IN RAIN SHOWERS. IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY NIGHT IN FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

COLD FRONT SWEEPING THE WATERS DURING THE EVENING HRS. SW-WINDS
BACKING NW DURING WHICH TIME GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
SEAS ABOVE 5 FEET MAINLY ON THE OUTER WATERS...THOUGH COULD BE
SOME LINGERING ISSUES FOR RI / BI SOUND.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...

STORM SYSTEM SWEEPS S OF NEW ENGLAND. N/NW FLOW...WHICH WILL
INCREASE TOWARDS THE LATER HALF OF THE PERIOD. WILL BE A LULL IN
WIND AND WAVE ACTION DURING WHICH TIME A RAIN / SNOW MIX WILL BE
AN ISSUE MOSTLY FOR THE S-WATERS WITH POTENTIAL VISIBILITY IMPACT.
THEN WAVES INCREASE IN EXCESS OF 5-FEET WITH ENHANCING N/NW-FLOW.

SMALL-CRAFT HEADLINES CONTINUE FOR THE OUTER WATERS THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD...WHILE INNER-WATERS EXPIRE OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE WATERS. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST DIMINISHING
THROUGH THE PERIOD. OCCASIONAL 25 KT GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE
OUTER WATERS AT TIMES.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...SEAS INCREASE AS TWO SEPARATE LOW
PRESSURE CENTERS AND THEIR COLD FRONTS APPROACH THE WATERS.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 15 TO 20 KTS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY
MORNING. GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY FOR BOTH WINDS AND SEAS AT LEAST ON THE
OUTER WATERS...IF NOT ON THE INTERIOR BAYS AND SOUNDS AT TIMES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ231-232.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ233-234-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...RLG/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...RLG/SIPPRELL
MARINE...RLG/SIPPRELL



000
FXUS61 KBOX 302304
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
704 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A QUIET NIGHT OF WEATHER PRIOR TO A CLIPPER-LOW SWEEPING SOUTH OF
THE REGION BRINGING A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW TO SOUTHERN-MOST
PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND. WARMER TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE END OF
THIS WEEK THEN A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM MAY APPROACH LATE THIS
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
7 PM UPDATE...A FEW SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE BEHIND THE
FRONT...BUT OBSERVATIONS HAVE BEEN JUST A FEW MINUTES OF PRECIP
THEN COMING TO AN END. HAVE DECREASED POPS AS THESE SHOWERS ARE
FEW AND FAR BETWEEN AND MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY.
OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

QUIET WEATHER. SCATTERED RAIN / SNOW SHOWERS CONCLUDE WITH ONLY
REMNANT MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS REMAINING. BREEZY W-WINDS WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. COLD AIR ADVECTION IN WAKE
OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION INTO THIS EVENING.
EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DROP TO AROUND THE LOW-30S...NEAR-
SEASONABLE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...

DEPENDENCE OF THE FORECAST UPON THE TRACK OF THE CLIPPER DISTURBANCE
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE BROADER CYCLONIC FLOW AND ITS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE REFLECTION IN AREAS OF FAVORABLE BAROCLINICITY / THERMAL
PACKING. THE CLOSER TO THE S NEW ENGLAND SHORELINE...THE GREATER THE
IMPACT. WENT WITH A CONSENSUS BLEND OF THE FORECAST GUIDANCE NOTING
THE EC / NAM ALONG THE N-END OF THE ENVELOP WITH ALL OTHER FORECAST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A SWING AND A MISS.

FORECAST GUIDANCE CONSENSUS HAS CLIPPER LOW TRACK OFF THE DELMARVA
COAST ALONG A W-E ZONAL-FLOW. OVER-RUNNING PRECIPITATION APPEARS
LARGELY ABSENT THOUGH W-E SETUP...DISCREET OUTCOMES APPARENT WITH
FRONTOGENETICAL BANDING ALONG THE PARENT WARM FRONT TO THE CLIPPER
LOW AROUND H7-8. IN ADDITION BETTER MOISTURE AND QG-FORCING MAINTAIN
S OF NEW ENGLAND PARENT WITH THE LOW WITH CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE.

SO FEEL THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE. ANY ACTIVITY
WILL BE LIGHT MOSTLY S OF THE MASS-PIKE. SUBSEQUENTLY WITH DRY LOW-
LEVELS AT ONSET FEEL WETBULBING / DYNAMIC COOLING OF LOW-LEVELS WILL
BE MINIMAL AGAINST HIGHS THAT ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE LOW- TO
MID-40S WITH DAYTIME HEATING PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF THE STORM WHICH
IS EXPECTED TO BE LATE. YET PROCEEDING INTO A EVENING ALONG WITH AN
ISALLOBARIC RESPONSE OF WINDS THAT WILL FUNNEL OUT OF THE N ABSENT
OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE...FEEL PRECIP-TYPE WILL VARY BETWEEN RAIN /
SNOW FROM WHICH AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION.
IF ANY...A TRACE AT MOST ON LINGERING SNOWPACK / ELEVATED SURFACES.

GREATEST IMPACTS WILL BE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S-COAST AND ISLANDS.
MAJORITY OF THE IMPACTS WILL BE DUE TO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WITH
SNOW...IF ANYTHING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MODERATING MORE SPRING-LIKE TEMPS LATE THIS WEEK
* INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND

DISCUSSION...

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE BROAD SCALE WITH SOME EXPECTED
DETAIL DIFFERENCES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS WITH ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE CENTERS/COLD FRONTS MOVING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
THIS WILL BRING SEVERAL CHANCES OF RAIN TO THE REGION THROUGHOUT
THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BRINGING
DRY WEATHER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO QUEBEC. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL BUT ONLY BY A FEW DEGREES. EXCELLENT MIXING...
COUPLED WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL LIKELY RESULT IN GUSTY
WINDS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...TWO SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND THEIR
ATTENDANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES...BRINGING A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. AT THIS POINT...LOOKING AT MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS WITH
AROUND AN INCH OF QPF. THERE ARE STILL DETAIL DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS FOR THIS PERIOD SO QPF AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE.

WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE FRIDAY WHEN THEY WILL ACTUALLY
CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL...POSSIBLY GIVING US OUR FIRST 60+ DEGREE DAY OF
THE SPRING. TEMPERATURES FALL SATURDAY...DROPPING BACK BELOW NORMAL
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT TRAILS THE LAST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES
WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY APRIL.

MONDAY...ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GREAT
LAKES...PUSHING HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE. TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO
MODERATE ONCE AGAIN...CREEPING BACK TOWARDS NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

00Z UPDATE...

LINGERING SCT -SHRA/-SHSN CONCLUDING TOWARDS 02Z. VFR. COLD FRONT
SWEEPS ACROSS THE TERMINALS LATE INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEHIND
WHICH WINDS VEER W/NW. GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...

STORM SWEEPING S OF NEW ENGLAND. LOWEST CONDITIONS ACROSS S-MOST
NEW ENGLAND WITH POTENTIAL IFR WITH -SN. OTHERWISE LOW-END VFR /
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS MOSTLY S OF THE CT-RI-MA BORDER. N/NW WINDS
INCREASING LATE WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS FOR COASTAL TERMINALS.

KBOS TAF...GUSTY W-WINDS OVERNIGHT.

KBDL TAF...QUIET WEATHER PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY IN RAIN SHOWERS. IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY NIGHT IN FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

COLD FRONT SWEEPING THE WATERS DURING THE EVENING HRS. SW-WINDS
BACKING NW DURING WHICH TIME GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
SEAS ABOVE 5 FEET MAINLY ON THE OUTER WATERS...THOUGH COULD BE
SOME LINGERING ISSUES FOR RI / BI SOUND.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...

STORM SYSTEM SWEEPS S OF NEW ENGLAND. N/NW FLOW...WHICH WILL
INCREASE TOWARDS THE LATER HALF OF THE PERIOD. WILL BE A LULL IN
WIND AND WAVE ACTION DURING WHICH TIME A RAIN / SNOW MIX WILL BE
AN ISSUE MOSTLY FOR THE S-WATERS WITH POTENTIAL VISIBILITY IMPACT.
THEN WAVES INCREASE IN EXCESS OF 5-FEET WITH ENHANCING N/NW-FLOW.

SMALL-CRAFT HEADLINES CONTINUE FOR THE OUTER WATERS THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD...WHILE INNER-WATERS EXPIRE OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE WATERS. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST DIMINISHING
THROUGH THE PERIOD. OCCASIONAL 25 KT GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE
OUTER WATERS AT TIMES.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...SEAS INCREASE AS TWO SEPARATE LOW
PRESSURE CENTERS AND THEIR COLD FRONTS APPROACH THE WATERS.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 15 TO 20 KTS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY
MORNING. GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY FOR BOTH WINDS AND SEAS AT LEAST ON THE
OUTER WATERS...IF NOT ON THE INTERIOR BAYS AND SOUNDS AT TIMES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ231-232.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ233-234-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...RLG/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...RLG/SIPPRELL
MARINE...RLG/SIPPRELL




000
FXUS61 KOKX 302255
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
655 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A QUICK MOVING
LOW PASSING TO THE SOUTH ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO
THE PLAINS. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL THEN PROGRESS SLOWLY ACROSS
THE AREA FROM LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN LATER THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT HAD PASSED THROUGH CENTRAL LONG ISLAND AND SOUTH
CENTRAL CT AS OF 22Z AND WAS MOVING INTO SERN CT AND THE EAST END
OF LONG ISLAND. ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO
THE INTERIOR...WHERE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EXIST UNTIL ABOUT 00Z.
EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR...WITH W TO WNW FLOW
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. HAVE CONTINUED TO SIDE WITH COLDER GUIDANCE
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS. THIS YIELDS LOWS IN THE
UPPER 20S INLAND AND IN THE LONG ISLAND PINE BARRENS...LOWER 30S
MOST ELSEWHERE...AND MID/UPPER 30S INVOF NYC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ALBERTA CLIPPER LOW NOW MOVING SE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS WILL
CONTINUE SE...REACHING THE NRN MID ATLANTIC BY TUE AFTERNOON.
EXPECT TUE MORNING TO BE DRY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS...THEN PRECIP
SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. HAVE LIKELY/CAT POP
FOR NEARLY THE ENTIRE CWA...EXCEPT FOR SOUTHERN CT AS THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR NORTH THE ASSOCIATED PRECIP SHIELD
WILL EXTEND SINCE NWP GUIDANCE SHOWS BEST WAA AND H5 FORCING
PASSING MAINLY OVER NYC METRO/LONG ISLAND AND POINTS SOUTH.

PRECIP DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS SHOULD BE MAINLY RAIN FOR NYC
METRO AND LONG ISLAND...BUT INLAND THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO
PRECIP TYPE. ATTM EXPECT AN ELEVATION-DEPENDENT SNOWFALL...WITH A
COLD RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND MOSTLY
SNOW IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. P-TYPE SHOULD TREND MORE TOWARD
SNOW THROUGHOUT BEFORE ENDING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS VIA
WET-BULB COOLING AND AN INCREASING COLDER NORTHERLY FLOW. ATTM
EXPECT LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IN NYC METRO...NO MORE THAN A
COATING MOST ELSEWHERE AND UP TO AN INCH IN THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS. THE WORST-CASE SCENARIO WOULD BE A COATING OF
ACCUMULATION IN NYC...UP TO AN INCH MOST ELSEWHERE...AND 1-2
INCHES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A PROGRESSIVE...YET SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER
48...WILL BE FEATURED DURING THE PERIOD.  THIS WILL RESULT IN
SEVERAL SWINGS IN THE TEMP REGIME AS WE GO FROM BELOW NORMAL AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD...TO ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
FRONTAL SYSTEM AT THE END OF THE WEEK...FOLLOWED BY YET ANOTHER SHOT
OF UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR AT THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND. THERE ARE ALSO
SOME TIMING ISSUES...IN PARTICULAR WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM AT THE
END OF THE WEEK. THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH A RAINFALL WITH A
FRONTAL WAVE...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS THAT WAVE DISPLACED FARTHER NORTH
AND WEST. EVEN SO...BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF DRY CONDITIONS OUT
BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SAT. THE DIFFERENCES ARISE DUE TO
THE TIMING OF THE PAC SHORTWAVE ENERGY. THE SPECIFICS OF SUCH CAN
NOT BE WORKED OUT THIS EARLY IN THE FORECAST PROCESS. PREFERENCE WAS
TO TAKE A MIDDLE GROUND APPROACH WITH THE TIMING OF THE LATE
WEEK SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...AND THEN
WEAK LOW PRES IMPACTS THE TERMINALS LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE W/NW ACROSS THE WESTERN TERMINALS AND WILL
SHIFT FROM THE W-SW TO THE W/NW OVER EASTERN TERMINALS BY EARLY THIS
EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT WORKS ITS WAY EAST. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE
AROUND 15 KT WITH 25 KT GUSTS AFTER ITS PASSAGE...AND THEN GUSTS END
AND WINDS DIMINISH TO 8-12 KT THIS EVENING.

AFTER MIDNIGHT...WEST WINDS WILL AVERAGE 5-8 KT...AND THEN
INCREASE BY A FEW KT LATE TUESDAY MORNING.

BKN DECK AROUND 4000 FT LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL SCATTER OUT THIS
EVENING...AND THEN SKC CONDS EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. MID-
DECK INCREASES TUESDAY MORNING AS LOW PRES APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

VFR THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY.

FOR THE 30-HR SITES...KJFK/KEWR/KSWF...MVFR CONDS IN RAIN FOR
KJFK/KEWR AND -SN FOR KSWF AFT 21Z TUESDAY.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS 270-290 MAG WITH PEAK GUSTS 25-27 KT
THROUGH 23Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS 280-300 MAG WITH PEAK GUSTS 25 TO 28 KT
THROUGH 23Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS 260-280 MAG WITH PEAK GUSTS AROUND 25
KT THROUGH 23Z.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: W-NW WINDS WITH PEAK GUSTS UP TO 25 KT
THROUGH 23Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: W-NW WINDS WITH PEAK GUSTS UP TO 25 KT
THROUGH 23Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: W-NW WINDS WITH PEAK GUSTS AROUND 25 KT
THROUGH 00Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY AFTERNOON...MVFR IN DEVELOPING RAIN/SNOW.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...CONDS IMPROVING TO VFR BY MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT.
.WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...VFR.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS.
.SATURDAY...MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA ON THE NY HARBOR REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8PM. GUSTS TO 25 KT AFTER
8PM ON THE HARBOR SHOULD BE MORE OCCASIONAL. NO CHANGES MADE TO
OTHER SCA HEADLINES.

SEAS ON THE OCEAN ARE 4-6 FT AND MAY INCREASE ANOTHER FT OUT EAST
AS THE FLOW SHIFTS FROM SW TO W AFTER FROPA TONIGHT. GUSTS OUT
EAST AFTER FROPA SHOULD REACH SCA LEVELS AS WELL...BUT DID NOT
ISSUE SCA FOR THE WRN SOUND OR THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS AS GUSTS TO 25
KT LOOK TO BE ONLY BRIEF/OCNL IN NATURE EARLY THIS EVENING.

SCA CONDS COULD LAST ON THE OCEAN THROUGH TUE NIGHT...AND ALSO
RETURN TO THE ERN WATERS TUE NIGHT...AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE
S AND NORTHERLY FLOW INCREASES IN ITS WAKE. THEN EXPECT SUB-SMALL
CRAFT LEVEL CONDITIONS WED THROUGH THU AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINS OVER THE REGION. WIND GUSTS AND WAVES INCREASE TO SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING THE OCEAN
WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
QPF OF 1/10 TO 1/4 INCH EXPECTED TUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AT THE
END OF THE WEEK WITH A FRONTAL WAVE ALONG A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL
SYSTEM.

RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW BANK FULL...BUT
INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT WILL CONTINUE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT INTO
THIS WEEKEND. ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY
OCCUR...COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING
IS UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS
SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ338.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ330-340.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/DW
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/DS
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...GOODMAN/DW/DS
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/DW




000
FXUS61 KOKX 302255
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
655 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A QUICK MOVING
LOW PASSING TO THE SOUTH ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO
THE PLAINS. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL THEN PROGRESS SLOWLY ACROSS
THE AREA FROM LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN LATER THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT HAD PASSED THROUGH CENTRAL LONG ISLAND AND SOUTH
CENTRAL CT AS OF 22Z AND WAS MOVING INTO SERN CT AND THE EAST END
OF LONG ISLAND. ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO
THE INTERIOR...WHERE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EXIST UNTIL ABOUT 00Z.
EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR...WITH W TO WNW FLOW
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. HAVE CONTINUED TO SIDE WITH COLDER GUIDANCE
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS. THIS YIELDS LOWS IN THE
UPPER 20S INLAND AND IN THE LONG ISLAND PINE BARRENS...LOWER 30S
MOST ELSEWHERE...AND MID/UPPER 30S INVOF NYC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ALBERTA CLIPPER LOW NOW MOVING SE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS WILL
CONTINUE SE...REACHING THE NRN MID ATLANTIC BY TUE AFTERNOON.
EXPECT TUE MORNING TO BE DRY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS...THEN PRECIP
SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. HAVE LIKELY/CAT POP
FOR NEARLY THE ENTIRE CWA...EXCEPT FOR SOUTHERN CT AS THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR NORTH THE ASSOCIATED PRECIP SHIELD
WILL EXTEND SINCE NWP GUIDANCE SHOWS BEST WAA AND H5 FORCING
PASSING MAINLY OVER NYC METRO/LONG ISLAND AND POINTS SOUTH.

PRECIP DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS SHOULD BE MAINLY RAIN FOR NYC
METRO AND LONG ISLAND...BUT INLAND THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO
PRECIP TYPE. ATTM EXPECT AN ELEVATION-DEPENDENT SNOWFALL...WITH A
COLD RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND MOSTLY
SNOW IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. P-TYPE SHOULD TREND MORE TOWARD
SNOW THROUGHOUT BEFORE ENDING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS VIA
WET-BULB COOLING AND AN INCREASING COLDER NORTHERLY FLOW. ATTM
EXPECT LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IN NYC METRO...NO MORE THAN A
COATING MOST ELSEWHERE AND UP TO AN INCH IN THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS. THE WORST-CASE SCENARIO WOULD BE A COATING OF
ACCUMULATION IN NYC...UP TO AN INCH MOST ELSEWHERE...AND 1-2
INCHES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A PROGRESSIVE...YET SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER
48...WILL BE FEATURED DURING THE PERIOD.  THIS WILL RESULT IN
SEVERAL SWINGS IN THE TEMP REGIME AS WE GO FROM BELOW NORMAL AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD...TO ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
FRONTAL SYSTEM AT THE END OF THE WEEK...FOLLOWED BY YET ANOTHER SHOT
OF UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR AT THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND. THERE ARE ALSO
SOME TIMING ISSUES...IN PARTICULAR WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM AT THE
END OF THE WEEK. THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH A RAINFALL WITH A
FRONTAL WAVE...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS THAT WAVE DISPLACED FARTHER NORTH
AND WEST. EVEN SO...BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF DRY CONDITIONS OUT
BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SAT. THE DIFFERENCES ARISE DUE TO
THE TIMING OF THE PAC SHORTWAVE ENERGY. THE SPECIFICS OF SUCH CAN
NOT BE WORKED OUT THIS EARLY IN THE FORECAST PROCESS. PREFERENCE WAS
TO TAKE A MIDDLE GROUND APPROACH WITH THE TIMING OF THE LATE
WEEK SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...AND THEN
WEAK LOW PRES IMPACTS THE TERMINALS LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE W/NW ACROSS THE WESTERN TERMINALS AND WILL
SHIFT FROM THE W-SW TO THE W/NW OVER EASTERN TERMINALS BY EARLY THIS
EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT WORKS ITS WAY EAST. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE
AROUND 15 KT WITH 25 KT GUSTS AFTER ITS PASSAGE...AND THEN GUSTS END
AND WINDS DIMINISH TO 8-12 KT THIS EVENING.

AFTER MIDNIGHT...WEST WINDS WILL AVERAGE 5-8 KT...AND THEN
INCREASE BY A FEW KT LATE TUESDAY MORNING.

BKN DECK AROUND 4000 FT LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL SCATTER OUT THIS
EVENING...AND THEN SKC CONDS EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. MID-
DECK INCREASES TUESDAY MORNING AS LOW PRES APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

VFR THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY.

FOR THE 30-HR SITES...KJFK/KEWR/KSWF...MVFR CONDS IN RAIN FOR
KJFK/KEWR AND -SN FOR KSWF AFT 21Z TUESDAY.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS 270-290 MAG WITH PEAK GUSTS 25-27 KT
THROUGH 23Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS 280-300 MAG WITH PEAK GUSTS 25 TO 28 KT
THROUGH 23Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS 260-280 MAG WITH PEAK GUSTS AROUND 25
KT THROUGH 23Z.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: W-NW WINDS WITH PEAK GUSTS UP TO 25 KT
THROUGH 23Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: W-NW WINDS WITH PEAK GUSTS UP TO 25 KT
THROUGH 23Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: W-NW WINDS WITH PEAK GUSTS AROUND 25 KT
THROUGH 00Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY AFTERNOON...MVFR IN DEVELOPING RAIN/SNOW.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...CONDS IMPROVING TO VFR BY MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT.
.WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...VFR.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS.
.SATURDAY...MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA ON THE NY HARBOR REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8PM. GUSTS TO 25 KT AFTER
8PM ON THE HARBOR SHOULD BE MORE OCCASIONAL. NO CHANGES MADE TO
OTHER SCA HEADLINES.

SEAS ON THE OCEAN ARE 4-6 FT AND MAY INCREASE ANOTHER FT OUT EAST
AS THE FLOW SHIFTS FROM SW TO W AFTER FROPA TONIGHT. GUSTS OUT
EAST AFTER FROPA SHOULD REACH SCA LEVELS AS WELL...BUT DID NOT
ISSUE SCA FOR THE WRN SOUND OR THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS AS GUSTS TO 25
KT LOOK TO BE ONLY BRIEF/OCNL IN NATURE EARLY THIS EVENING.

SCA CONDS COULD LAST ON THE OCEAN THROUGH TUE NIGHT...AND ALSO
RETURN TO THE ERN WATERS TUE NIGHT...AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE
S AND NORTHERLY FLOW INCREASES IN ITS WAKE. THEN EXPECT SUB-SMALL
CRAFT LEVEL CONDITIONS WED THROUGH THU AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINS OVER THE REGION. WIND GUSTS AND WAVES INCREASE TO SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING THE OCEAN
WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
QPF OF 1/10 TO 1/4 INCH EXPECTED TUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AT THE
END OF THE WEEK WITH A FRONTAL WAVE ALONG A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL
SYSTEM.

RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW BANK FULL...BUT
INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT WILL CONTINUE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT INTO
THIS WEEKEND. ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY
OCCUR...COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING
IS UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS
SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ338.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ330-340.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/DW
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/DS
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...GOODMAN/DW/DS
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/DW



000
FXUS61 KOKX 302255
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
655 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A QUICK MOVING
LOW PASSING TO THE SOUTH ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO
THE PLAINS. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL THEN PROGRESS SLOWLY ACROSS
THE AREA FROM LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN LATER THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT HAD PASSED THROUGH CENTRAL LONG ISLAND AND SOUTH
CENTRAL CT AS OF 22Z AND WAS MOVING INTO SERN CT AND THE EAST END
OF LONG ISLAND. ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO
THE INTERIOR...WHERE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EXIST UNTIL ABOUT 00Z.
EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR...WITH W TO WNW FLOW
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. HAVE CONTINUED TO SIDE WITH COLDER GUIDANCE
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS. THIS YIELDS LOWS IN THE
UPPER 20S INLAND AND IN THE LONG ISLAND PINE BARRENS...LOWER 30S
MOST ELSEWHERE...AND MID/UPPER 30S INVOF NYC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ALBERTA CLIPPER LOW NOW MOVING SE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS WILL
CONTINUE SE...REACHING THE NRN MID ATLANTIC BY TUE AFTERNOON.
EXPECT TUE MORNING TO BE DRY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS...THEN PRECIP
SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. HAVE LIKELY/CAT POP
FOR NEARLY THE ENTIRE CWA...EXCEPT FOR SOUTHERN CT AS THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR NORTH THE ASSOCIATED PRECIP SHIELD
WILL EXTEND SINCE NWP GUIDANCE SHOWS BEST WAA AND H5 FORCING
PASSING MAINLY OVER NYC METRO/LONG ISLAND AND POINTS SOUTH.

PRECIP DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS SHOULD BE MAINLY RAIN FOR NYC
METRO AND LONG ISLAND...BUT INLAND THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO
PRECIP TYPE. ATTM EXPECT AN ELEVATION-DEPENDENT SNOWFALL...WITH A
COLD RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND MOSTLY
SNOW IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. P-TYPE SHOULD TREND MORE TOWARD
SNOW THROUGHOUT BEFORE ENDING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS VIA
WET-BULB COOLING AND AN INCREASING COLDER NORTHERLY FLOW. ATTM
EXPECT LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IN NYC METRO...NO MORE THAN A
COATING MOST ELSEWHERE AND UP TO AN INCH IN THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS. THE WORST-CASE SCENARIO WOULD BE A COATING OF
ACCUMULATION IN NYC...UP TO AN INCH MOST ELSEWHERE...AND 1-2
INCHES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A PROGRESSIVE...YET SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER
48...WILL BE FEATURED DURING THE PERIOD.  THIS WILL RESULT IN
SEVERAL SWINGS IN THE TEMP REGIME AS WE GO FROM BELOW NORMAL AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD...TO ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
FRONTAL SYSTEM AT THE END OF THE WEEK...FOLLOWED BY YET ANOTHER SHOT
OF UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR AT THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND. THERE ARE ALSO
SOME TIMING ISSUES...IN PARTICULAR WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM AT THE
END OF THE WEEK. THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH A RAINFALL WITH A
FRONTAL WAVE...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS THAT WAVE DISPLACED FARTHER NORTH
AND WEST. EVEN SO...BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF DRY CONDITIONS OUT
BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SAT. THE DIFFERENCES ARISE DUE TO
THE TIMING OF THE PAC SHORTWAVE ENERGY. THE SPECIFICS OF SUCH CAN
NOT BE WORKED OUT THIS EARLY IN THE FORECAST PROCESS. PREFERENCE WAS
TO TAKE A MIDDLE GROUND APPROACH WITH THE TIMING OF THE LATE
WEEK SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...AND THEN
WEAK LOW PRES IMPACTS THE TERMINALS LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE W/NW ACROSS THE WESTERN TERMINALS AND WILL
SHIFT FROM THE W-SW TO THE W/NW OVER EASTERN TERMINALS BY EARLY THIS
EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT WORKS ITS WAY EAST. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE
AROUND 15 KT WITH 25 KT GUSTS AFTER ITS PASSAGE...AND THEN GUSTS END
AND WINDS DIMINISH TO 8-12 KT THIS EVENING.

AFTER MIDNIGHT...WEST WINDS WILL AVERAGE 5-8 KT...AND THEN
INCREASE BY A FEW KT LATE TUESDAY MORNING.

BKN DECK AROUND 4000 FT LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL SCATTER OUT THIS
EVENING...AND THEN SKC CONDS EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. MID-
DECK INCREASES TUESDAY MORNING AS LOW PRES APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

VFR THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY.

FOR THE 30-HR SITES...KJFK/KEWR/KSWF...MVFR CONDS IN RAIN FOR
KJFK/KEWR AND -SN FOR KSWF AFT 21Z TUESDAY.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS 270-290 MAG WITH PEAK GUSTS 25-27 KT
THROUGH 23Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS 280-300 MAG WITH PEAK GUSTS 25 TO 28 KT
THROUGH 23Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS 260-280 MAG WITH PEAK GUSTS AROUND 25
KT THROUGH 23Z.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: W-NW WINDS WITH PEAK GUSTS UP TO 25 KT
THROUGH 23Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: W-NW WINDS WITH PEAK GUSTS UP TO 25 KT
THROUGH 23Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: W-NW WINDS WITH PEAK GUSTS AROUND 25 KT
THROUGH 00Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY AFTERNOON...MVFR IN DEVELOPING RAIN/SNOW.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...CONDS IMPROVING TO VFR BY MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT.
.WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...VFR.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS.
.SATURDAY...MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA ON THE NY HARBOR REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8PM. GUSTS TO 25 KT AFTER
8PM ON THE HARBOR SHOULD BE MORE OCCASIONAL. NO CHANGES MADE TO
OTHER SCA HEADLINES.

SEAS ON THE OCEAN ARE 4-6 FT AND MAY INCREASE ANOTHER FT OUT EAST
AS THE FLOW SHIFTS FROM SW TO W AFTER FROPA TONIGHT. GUSTS OUT
EAST AFTER FROPA SHOULD REACH SCA LEVELS AS WELL...BUT DID NOT
ISSUE SCA FOR THE WRN SOUND OR THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS AS GUSTS TO 25
KT LOOK TO BE ONLY BRIEF/OCNL IN NATURE EARLY THIS EVENING.

SCA CONDS COULD LAST ON THE OCEAN THROUGH TUE NIGHT...AND ALSO
RETURN TO THE ERN WATERS TUE NIGHT...AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE
S AND NORTHERLY FLOW INCREASES IN ITS WAKE. THEN EXPECT SUB-SMALL
CRAFT LEVEL CONDITIONS WED THROUGH THU AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINS OVER THE REGION. WIND GUSTS AND WAVES INCREASE TO SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING THE OCEAN
WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
QPF OF 1/10 TO 1/4 INCH EXPECTED TUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AT THE
END OF THE WEEK WITH A FRONTAL WAVE ALONG A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL
SYSTEM.

RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW BANK FULL...BUT
INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT WILL CONTINUE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT INTO
THIS WEEKEND. ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY
OCCUR...COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING
IS UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS
SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ338.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ330-340.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/DW
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/DS
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...GOODMAN/DW/DS
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/DW



000
FXUS61 KOKX 302255
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
655 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A QUICK MOVING
LOW PASSING TO THE SOUTH ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO
THE PLAINS. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL THEN PROGRESS SLOWLY ACROSS
THE AREA FROM LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN LATER THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT HAD PASSED THROUGH CENTRAL LONG ISLAND AND SOUTH
CENTRAL CT AS OF 22Z AND WAS MOVING INTO SERN CT AND THE EAST END
OF LONG ISLAND. ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO
THE INTERIOR...WHERE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EXIST UNTIL ABOUT 00Z.
EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR...WITH W TO WNW FLOW
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. HAVE CONTINUED TO SIDE WITH COLDER GUIDANCE
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS. THIS YIELDS LOWS IN THE
UPPER 20S INLAND AND IN THE LONG ISLAND PINE BARRENS...LOWER 30S
MOST ELSEWHERE...AND MID/UPPER 30S INVOF NYC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ALBERTA CLIPPER LOW NOW MOVING SE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS WILL
CONTINUE SE...REACHING THE NRN MID ATLANTIC BY TUE AFTERNOON.
EXPECT TUE MORNING TO BE DRY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS...THEN PRECIP
SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. HAVE LIKELY/CAT POP
FOR NEARLY THE ENTIRE CWA...EXCEPT FOR SOUTHERN CT AS THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR NORTH THE ASSOCIATED PRECIP SHIELD
WILL EXTEND SINCE NWP GUIDANCE SHOWS BEST WAA AND H5 FORCING
PASSING MAINLY OVER NYC METRO/LONG ISLAND AND POINTS SOUTH.

PRECIP DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS SHOULD BE MAINLY RAIN FOR NYC
METRO AND LONG ISLAND...BUT INLAND THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO
PRECIP TYPE. ATTM EXPECT AN ELEVATION-DEPENDENT SNOWFALL...WITH A
COLD RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND MOSTLY
SNOW IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. P-TYPE SHOULD TREND MORE TOWARD
SNOW THROUGHOUT BEFORE ENDING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS VIA
WET-BULB COOLING AND AN INCREASING COLDER NORTHERLY FLOW. ATTM
EXPECT LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IN NYC METRO...NO MORE THAN A
COATING MOST ELSEWHERE AND UP TO AN INCH IN THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS. THE WORST-CASE SCENARIO WOULD BE A COATING OF
ACCUMULATION IN NYC...UP TO AN INCH MOST ELSEWHERE...AND 1-2
INCHES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A PROGRESSIVE...YET SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER
48...WILL BE FEATURED DURING THE PERIOD.  THIS WILL RESULT IN
SEVERAL SWINGS IN THE TEMP REGIME AS WE GO FROM BELOW NORMAL AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD...TO ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
FRONTAL SYSTEM AT THE END OF THE WEEK...FOLLOWED BY YET ANOTHER SHOT
OF UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR AT THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND. THERE ARE ALSO
SOME TIMING ISSUES...IN PARTICULAR WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM AT THE
END OF THE WEEK. THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH A RAINFALL WITH A
FRONTAL WAVE...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS THAT WAVE DISPLACED FARTHER NORTH
AND WEST. EVEN SO...BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF DRY CONDITIONS OUT
BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SAT. THE DIFFERENCES ARISE DUE TO
THE TIMING OF THE PAC SHORTWAVE ENERGY. THE SPECIFICS OF SUCH CAN
NOT BE WORKED OUT THIS EARLY IN THE FORECAST PROCESS. PREFERENCE WAS
TO TAKE A MIDDLE GROUND APPROACH WITH THE TIMING OF THE LATE
WEEK SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...AND THEN
WEAK LOW PRES IMPACTS THE TERMINALS LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE W/NW ACROSS THE WESTERN TERMINALS AND WILL
SHIFT FROM THE W-SW TO THE W/NW OVER EASTERN TERMINALS BY EARLY THIS
EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT WORKS ITS WAY EAST. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE
AROUND 15 KT WITH 25 KT GUSTS AFTER ITS PASSAGE...AND THEN GUSTS END
AND WINDS DIMINISH TO 8-12 KT THIS EVENING.

AFTER MIDNIGHT...WEST WINDS WILL AVERAGE 5-8 KT...AND THEN
INCREASE BY A FEW KT LATE TUESDAY MORNING.

BKN DECK AROUND 4000 FT LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL SCATTER OUT THIS
EVENING...AND THEN SKC CONDS EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. MID-
DECK INCREASES TUESDAY MORNING AS LOW PRES APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

VFR THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY.

FOR THE 30-HR SITES...KJFK/KEWR/KSWF...MVFR CONDS IN RAIN FOR
KJFK/KEWR AND -SN FOR KSWF AFT 21Z TUESDAY.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS 270-290 MAG WITH PEAK GUSTS 25-27 KT
THROUGH 23Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS 280-300 MAG WITH PEAK GUSTS 25 TO 28 KT
THROUGH 23Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS 260-280 MAG WITH PEAK GUSTS AROUND 25
KT THROUGH 23Z.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: W-NW WINDS WITH PEAK GUSTS UP TO 25 KT
THROUGH 23Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: W-NW WINDS WITH PEAK GUSTS UP TO 25 KT
THROUGH 23Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: W-NW WINDS WITH PEAK GUSTS AROUND 25 KT
THROUGH 00Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY AFTERNOON...MVFR IN DEVELOPING RAIN/SNOW.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...CONDS IMPROVING TO VFR BY MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT.
.WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...VFR.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS.
.SATURDAY...MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA ON THE NY HARBOR REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8PM. GUSTS TO 25 KT AFTER
8PM ON THE HARBOR SHOULD BE MORE OCCASIONAL. NO CHANGES MADE TO
OTHER SCA HEADLINES.

SEAS ON THE OCEAN ARE 4-6 FT AND MAY INCREASE ANOTHER FT OUT EAST
AS THE FLOW SHIFTS FROM SW TO W AFTER FROPA TONIGHT. GUSTS OUT
EAST AFTER FROPA SHOULD REACH SCA LEVELS AS WELL...BUT DID NOT
ISSUE SCA FOR THE WRN SOUND OR THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS AS GUSTS TO 25
KT LOOK TO BE ONLY BRIEF/OCNL IN NATURE EARLY THIS EVENING.

SCA CONDS COULD LAST ON THE OCEAN THROUGH TUE NIGHT...AND ALSO
RETURN TO THE ERN WATERS TUE NIGHT...AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE
S AND NORTHERLY FLOW INCREASES IN ITS WAKE. THEN EXPECT SUB-SMALL
CRAFT LEVEL CONDITIONS WED THROUGH THU AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINS OVER THE REGION. WIND GUSTS AND WAVES INCREASE TO SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING THE OCEAN
WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
QPF OF 1/10 TO 1/4 INCH EXPECTED TUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AT THE
END OF THE WEEK WITH A FRONTAL WAVE ALONG A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL
SYSTEM.

RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW BANK FULL...BUT
INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT WILL CONTINUE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT INTO
THIS WEEKEND. ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY
OCCUR...COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING
IS UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS
SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ338.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ330-340.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/DW
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/DS
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...GOODMAN/DW/DS
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/DW




000
FXUS61 KALY 302227
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
627 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TONIGHT...BUT A DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING MORE CLOUDS TO OUR AREA...AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE FAR
SOUTH OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO BRING FAIR WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 625 PM EDT...GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE SPREADING ACROSS THE
REGION AS COLD ADVECTION BUILDS EAST. LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS/SNOW SHOWERS TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION...AND WILL TEND
TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THIS EVENING AND THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. WEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT
SHOULD NOT GO CALM. THE COMBINATION OF THE CLOUDS AND WINDS SHOULD
PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO MUCH. LOWS IN THE 20S TO
LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER IMPULSE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND NORTHERN MS RIVER VALLEY
TRACKS TOWARD OUR REGION TUESDAY...AND JUST BARELY SCRAPES
SOUTHERN AREAS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CLOUDS COULD
EXTEND NORTH THROUGH CENTRAL NY AND SOUTHERN VT. WINDS SHOULD BE
LIGHT. SO...HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 40S...WITH HIGHEST TEMPERATURES
POTENTIALLY IN NORTHERN AREAS WHERE SOME FILTERED SUN CAN OCCUR.
HIGHS IN THE 30S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH LIGHT RAIN
DEVELOPING IN THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON...SOME SNOW IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

ANY RAIN AND SNOW ENDS DURING THE EVENING...AND THERE COULD BE
AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW IN HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE CATSKILLS...
WITH MAYBE A DUSTING IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. CLOUDS
GRADUALLY EXIT THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND COLD ADVECTION SPREADS
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S...TEENS IN NORTHERN
AREAS...WHERE MOST CLEARING IS EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE AND SUNNY SKY EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH THE
COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE...EVEN WITH STRONG EARLY APRIL SUN...HIGHS
IN THE 40S...SOME 30S NORTHERN AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD
DURING WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS.
TEMPERATURES DROP TO LOWS IN THE 20S DURING THE EVENING...SOME
TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS. AFTER MIDNIGHT...SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AND LOW LEVEL WINDS TURN TO
LIGHT SOUTH. SO TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD STEADY OR RISE A COUPLE
OF DEGREES TOWARD DAYBREAK.

INTERVALS OF CLOUDS THURSDAY AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHIFT TO
WEST AND SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE RAPIDLY. BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES RISE QUICKLY THROUGH THE DAY AND THE TIGHTENING
THERMAL GRADIENT AND INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD SUPPORT
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. THERE ARE HINTS
THAT SOME OF THE CLOUD COVER COULD BREAK FOR A BRIEF TIME DURING
THE AFTERNOON BUT TIMING AND DURATION COULD BE TOO LATE AND TOO
SHORT TO BOOST TEMPERATURES BEYOND THE 50S...40S IN NORTHERN
AREAS. IF DOWNSLOPING AND LONGER PERIOD OF BREAKS IN CLOUDS
THURSDAY...OPTIMUM MIXING COULD SUPPORT TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S
IN SOME AREAS...BUT NO CLEAR SIGNAL FOR THAT KIND OF WARMTH. SO...
AGAIN...HIGHS THURSDAY WITH AFTERNOON ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS...IN THE 50S...WITH SOME 40S NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS FAST-MOVING SYSTEMS
CONTINUE... WITH MODELS FORECASTING NEITHER STRONG SYSTEMS NOR
STRONG AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE. THUS...THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN
SHOWERY...AND WITH FREQUENTLY MIXED PRECIPITATION TYPES DEPENDENT
UPON TIME OF DAY... TERRAIN...CLOUDINESS...AND THE COLD AIR IN
PLAY. THE EARLY PART OF THE PERIOD WILL SEE THIS ACTIVITY...WHILE
SUNDAY ON LOOKS TO BE DRY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PRESSING
SOUTHWARD WILL KEEP SIGNIFICANT CLOUDINESS IN THE ZONES...BUT
THERE SHOULD BE PLENTIFUL PERIODS OF SUNSHINE.

THE SIGNS OF SPRING WILL BE APPARENT...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.  AFTER THIS...
HOWEVER...READINGS RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S
AND 40S.  THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD...WITH LOWS FROM
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.  BUT BY SATURDAY NIGHT...ALL LOCATIONS WILL
FREEZE...WITH THIS TO BE REPEATED SUNDAY NIGHT.  THE ADIRONDACKS AND
GREENS WILL HAVE LOCATIONS DOWN IN THE TEENS...BUT EVERYONE ELSE
WILL BE ABLE TO STAY UP IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S.  NORMAL HIGHS AT
ALBANY FOR THIS PERIOD ARE IN THE MID 50S...WITH NORMAL LOWS IN THE
MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES INTO THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD...BUT MOSTLY VFR CIGS EXPECTED. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR
WILL BE AT KPSF WHERE SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AND LOWER CIGS
ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING...WITH CIGS STAYING DOWN OVERNIGHT. THE
OTHER TAF SITES MIGHT SEE A STRAY SHOWER BUT CIG/VSBY SHOULD
REMAIN VFR. TUESDAY MORNING EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH A
THICKENING AND LOWERING MID CLOUD DECK BY NOON.

WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WITH GUSTS OF 18
TO 25 KTS DURING MID/LATE AFTERNOON. AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...THE
WIND WILL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND SPEEDS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH...DROPPING TO 5 TO 10 KTS BY LATE TONIGHT...WITH SOME
GUSTS TO 15 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TONIGHT...BUT A DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING MORE CLOUDS TO OUR AREA...AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE FAR
SOUTH OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO BRING FAIR WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY.

RH VALUES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL MAXIMIZE BETWEEN 65 AND
95 PERCENT. MINIMUM RH VALUES TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL RANGE
BETWEEN 40 AND 60 PERCENT. MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WILL RANGE BETWEEN 25 AND 45 PERCENT.

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT 15 TO 25 MPH EARLY THIS EVENING WILL
DIMINISH TO AROUND 15 MPH TOWARD DAYBREAK. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD BE AROUND 15 MPH THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...THEN DIMINISH TO
LESS THAN 15 MPH TUESDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AT 15 TO 25 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WHICH
WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY
IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...11/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...SND/NAS




000
FXUS61 KALY 302227
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
627 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TONIGHT...BUT A DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING MORE CLOUDS TO OUR AREA...AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE FAR
SOUTH OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO BRING FAIR WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 625 PM EDT...GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE SPREADING ACROSS THE
REGION AS COLD ADVECTION BUILDS EAST. LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS/SNOW SHOWERS TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION...AND WILL TEND
TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THIS EVENING AND THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. WEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT
SHOULD NOT GO CALM. THE COMBINATION OF THE CLOUDS AND WINDS SHOULD
PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO MUCH. LOWS IN THE 20S TO
LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER IMPULSE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND NORTHERN MS RIVER VALLEY
TRACKS TOWARD OUR REGION TUESDAY...AND JUST BARELY SCRAPES
SOUTHERN AREAS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CLOUDS COULD
EXTEND NORTH THROUGH CENTRAL NY AND SOUTHERN VT. WINDS SHOULD BE
LIGHT. SO...HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 40S...WITH HIGHEST TEMPERATURES
POTENTIALLY IN NORTHERN AREAS WHERE SOME FILTERED SUN CAN OCCUR.
HIGHS IN THE 30S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH LIGHT RAIN
DEVELOPING IN THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON...SOME SNOW IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

ANY RAIN AND SNOW ENDS DURING THE EVENING...AND THERE COULD BE
AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW IN HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE CATSKILLS...
WITH MAYBE A DUSTING IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. CLOUDS
GRADUALLY EXIT THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND COLD ADVECTION SPREADS
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S...TEENS IN NORTHERN
AREAS...WHERE MOST CLEARING IS EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE AND SUNNY SKY EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH THE
COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE...EVEN WITH STRONG EARLY APRIL SUN...HIGHS
IN THE 40S...SOME 30S NORTHERN AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD
DURING WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS.
TEMPERATURES DROP TO LOWS IN THE 20S DURING THE EVENING...SOME
TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS. AFTER MIDNIGHT...SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AND LOW LEVEL WINDS TURN TO
LIGHT SOUTH. SO TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD STEADY OR RISE A COUPLE
OF DEGREES TOWARD DAYBREAK.

INTERVALS OF CLOUDS THURSDAY AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHIFT TO
WEST AND SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE RAPIDLY. BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES RISE QUICKLY THROUGH THE DAY AND THE TIGHTENING
THERMAL GRADIENT AND INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD SUPPORT
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. THERE ARE HINTS
THAT SOME OF THE CLOUD COVER COULD BREAK FOR A BRIEF TIME DURING
THE AFTERNOON BUT TIMING AND DURATION COULD BE TOO LATE AND TOO
SHORT TO BOOST TEMPERATURES BEYOND THE 50S...40S IN NORTHERN
AREAS. IF DOWNSLOPING AND LONGER PERIOD OF BREAKS IN CLOUDS
THURSDAY...OPTIMUM MIXING COULD SUPPORT TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S
IN SOME AREAS...BUT NO CLEAR SIGNAL FOR THAT KIND OF WARMTH. SO...
AGAIN...HIGHS THURSDAY WITH AFTERNOON ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS...IN THE 50S...WITH SOME 40S NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS FAST-MOVING SYSTEMS
CONTINUE... WITH MODELS FORECASTING NEITHER STRONG SYSTEMS NOR
STRONG AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE. THUS...THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN
SHOWERY...AND WITH FREQUENTLY MIXED PRECIPITATION TYPES DEPENDENT
UPON TIME OF DAY... TERRAIN...CLOUDINESS...AND THE COLD AIR IN
PLAY. THE EARLY PART OF THE PERIOD WILL SEE THIS ACTIVITY...WHILE
SUNDAY ON LOOKS TO BE DRY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PRESSING
SOUTHWARD WILL KEEP SIGNIFICANT CLOUDINESS IN THE ZONES...BUT
THERE SHOULD BE PLENTIFUL PERIODS OF SUNSHINE.

THE SIGNS OF SPRING WILL BE APPARENT...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.  AFTER THIS...
HOWEVER...READINGS RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S
AND 40S.  THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD...WITH LOWS FROM
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.  BUT BY SATURDAY NIGHT...ALL LOCATIONS WILL
FREEZE...WITH THIS TO BE REPEATED SUNDAY NIGHT.  THE ADIRONDACKS AND
GREENS WILL HAVE LOCATIONS DOWN IN THE TEENS...BUT EVERYONE ELSE
WILL BE ABLE TO STAY UP IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S.  NORMAL HIGHS AT
ALBANY FOR THIS PERIOD ARE IN THE MID 50S...WITH NORMAL LOWS IN THE
MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES INTO THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD...BUT MOSTLY VFR CIGS EXPECTED. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR
WILL BE AT KPSF WHERE SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AND LOWER CIGS
ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING...WITH CIGS STAYING DOWN OVERNIGHT. THE
OTHER TAF SITES MIGHT SEE A STRAY SHOWER BUT CIG/VSBY SHOULD
REMAIN VFR. TUESDAY MORNING EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH A
THICKENING AND LOWERING MID CLOUD DECK BY NOON.

WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WITH GUSTS OF 18
TO 25 KTS DURING MID/LATE AFTERNOON. AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...THE
WIND WILL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND SPEEDS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH...DROPPING TO 5 TO 10 KTS BY LATE TONIGHT...WITH SOME
GUSTS TO 15 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TONIGHT...BUT A DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING MORE CLOUDS TO OUR AREA...AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE FAR
SOUTH OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO BRING FAIR WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY.

RH VALUES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL MAXIMIZE BETWEEN 65 AND
95 PERCENT. MINIMUM RH VALUES TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL RANGE
BETWEEN 40 AND 60 PERCENT. MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WILL RANGE BETWEEN 25 AND 45 PERCENT.

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT 15 TO 25 MPH EARLY THIS EVENING WILL
DIMINISH TO AROUND 15 MPH TOWARD DAYBREAK. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD BE AROUND 15 MPH THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...THEN DIMINISH TO
LESS THAN 15 MPH TUESDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AT 15 TO 25 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WHICH
WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY
IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...11/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...SND/NAS



000
FXUS61 KOKX 302024
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
424 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS LATE TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A QUICK MOVING LOW
PASSING TO THE SOUTH ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
PLAINS. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL THEN PROGRESS SLOWLY ACROSS THE
AREA FROM LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN LATER THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT HAD PASSED NYC METRO AS OF 20Z AND WAS MOVING INTO SRN
CT AND LONG ISLAND. A FEW SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY/FOLLOW
FROPA...MAINLY ACROSS SRN CT WHERE HAVE CARRIED SCT POP UNTIL
ABOUT 23Z-00Z. THEN EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR...WITH A
BRISK W TO WNW FLOW DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WINDS SIDED WITH THE COLDER GUIDANCE...WITH UPPER 20S
INLAND AND IN THE LONG ISLAND PINE BARRENS...LOWER 30S MOST
ELSEWHERE...AND MID/UPPER 30S INVOF NYC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ALBERTA CLIPPER LOW NOW MOVING SE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS WILL
CONTINUE SE...REACHING THE NRN MID ATLANTIC BY TUE AFTERNOON.
EXPECT TUE MORNING TO BE DRY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS...THEN PRECIP
SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. HAVE LIKELY/CAT POP
FOR NEARLY THE ENTIRE CWA...EXCEPT FOR SOUTHERN CT AS THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR NORTH THE ASSOCIATED PRECIP SHIELD
WILL EXTEND SINCE NWP GUIDANCE SHOWS BEST WAA AND H5 FORCING
PASSING MAINLY OVER NYC METRO/LONG ISLAND AND POINTS SOUTH.

PRECIP DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS SHOULD BE MAINLY RAIN FOR NYC
METRO AND LONG ISLAND...BUT INLAND THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO
PRECIP TYPE. ATTM EXPECT AN ELEVATION-DEPENDENT SNOWFALL...WITH A
COLD RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND MOSTLY
SNOW IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. P-TYPE SHOULD TREND MORE TOWARD
SNOW THROUGHOUT BEFORE ENDING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS VIA
WET-BULB COOLING AND AN INCREASING COLDER NORTHERLY FLOW. ATTM
EXPECT LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IN NYC METRO...NO MORE THAN A
COATING MOST ELSEWHERE AND UP TO AN INCH IN THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS. THE WORST-CASE SCENARIO WOULD BE A COATING OF
ACCUMULATION IN NYC...UP TO AN INCH MOST ELSEWHERE...AND 1-2
INCHES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A PROGRESSIVE...YET SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER
48...WILL BE FEATURED DURING THE PERIOD.  THIS WILL RESULT IN
SEVERAL SWINGS IN THE TEMP REGIME AS WE GO FROM BELOW NORMAL AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD...TO ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
FRONTAL SYSTEM AT THE END OF THE WEEK...FOLLOWED BY YET ANOTHER SHOT
OF UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR AT THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND. THERE ARE ALSO
SOME TIMING ISSUES...IN PARTICULAR WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM AT THE
END OF THE WEEK. THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH A RAINFALL WITH A
FRONTAL WAVE...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS THAT WAVE DISPLACED FARTHER NORTH
AND WEST. EVEN SO...BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF DRY CONDITIONS OUT
BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SAT. THE DIFFERENCES ARISE DUE TO
THE TIMING OF THE PAC SHORTWAVE ENERGY. THE SPECIFICS OF SUCH CAN
NOT BE WORKED OUT THIS EARLY IN THE FORECAST PROCESS. PREFERENCE WAS
TO TAKE A MIDDLE GROUND APPROACH WITH THE TIMING OF THE LATE
WEEK SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...AND THEN
WEAK LOW PRES IMPACTS THE TERMINALS LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE W/NW ACROSS THE WESTERN TERMINALS AND WILL
SHIFT FROM THE W-SW TO THE W/NW OVER EASTERN TERMINALS BY EARLY THIS
EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT WORKS ITS WAY EAST. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE
AROUND 15 KT WITH 25 KT GUSTS AFTER ITS PASSAGE...AND THEN GUSTS END
AND WINDS DIMINISH TO 8-12 KT THIS EVENING.

AFTER MIDNIGHT...WEST WINDS WILL AVERAGE 5-8 KT...AND THEN
INCREASE BY A FEW KT LATE TUESDAY MORNING.

BKN DECK AROUND 4000 FT LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL SCATTER OUT THIS
EVENING...AND THEN SKC CONDS EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. MID-
DECK INCREASES TUESDAY MORNING AS LOW PRES APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

VFR THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY.

FOR THE 30-HR SITES...KJFK/KEWR/KSWF...MVFR CONDS IN RAIN FOR
KJFK/KEWR AND -SN FOR KSWF AFT 21Z TUESDAY.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS 270-290 MAG WITH PEAK GUSTS 25-27 KT
THROUGH 23Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS 280-300 MAG WITH PEAK GUSTS 25 TO 28 KT
THROUGH 23Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS 260-280 MAG WITH PEAK GUSTS AROUND 25
KT THROUGH 23Z.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: W-NW WINDS WITH PEAK GUSTS UP TO 25 KT
THROUGH 23Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: W-NW WINDS WITH PEAK GUSTS UP TO 25 KT
THROUGH 23Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: W-NW WINDS WITH PEAK GUSTS AROUND 25 KT
THROUGH 00Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY AFTERNOON...MVFR IN DEVELOPING RAIN/SNOW.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...CONDS IMPROVING TO VFR BY MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT.
.WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...VFR.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS.
.SATURDAY...MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA IN EFFECT ATTM FOR NY HARBOR AND THE OCEAN WATERS. COLD FROPA
HAS BROUGHT W WINDS GUSTING TO 25-30 KT TO THE HARBOR THAT SHOULD
PERSIST UNTIL 8 PM OR SO. SEAS ON THE OCEAN ARE 4-6 FT ATTM AND
MAY INCREASE ANOTHER FT OUT EAST AS THE FLOW SHIFTS FROM SW TO W
AFTER FROPA TONIGHT. GUSTS OUT EAST AFTER FROPA SHOULD REACH SCA
LEVELS AS WELL...BUT DID NOT ISSUE SCA FOR THE WRN SOUND OR THE
SOUTH SHORE BAYS AS GUSTS TO 25 KT LOOK TO BE ONLY BRIEF/OCNL IN
NATURE EARLY THIS EVENING.

SCA CONDS COULD LAST ON THE OCEAN THROUGH TUE NIGHT...AND ALSO
RETURN TO THE ERN WATERS TUE NIGHT...AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE
S AND NORTHERLY FLOW INCREASES IN ITS WAKE. THEN EXPECT SUB-SMALL
CRAFT LEVEL CONDITIONS WED THROUGH THU AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINS OVER THE REGION. WIND GUSTS AND WAVES INCREASE TO SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING THE OCEAN
WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
QPF OF 1/10 TO 1/4 INCH EXPECTED TUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AT THE
END OF THE WEEK WITH A FRONTAL WAVE ALONG A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL
SYSTEM.

RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW BANK FULL...BUT
INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT WILL CONTINUE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT INTO
THIS WEEKEND. ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY
OCCUR...COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING
IS UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS
SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ338.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ330-340.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/DW
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...GOODMAN/DW
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/DW



000
FXUS61 KOKX 302024
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
424 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS LATE TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A QUICK MOVING LOW
PASSING TO THE SOUTH ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
PLAINS. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL THEN PROGRESS SLOWLY ACROSS THE
AREA FROM LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN LATER THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT HAD PASSED NYC METRO AS OF 20Z AND WAS MOVING INTO SRN
CT AND LONG ISLAND. A FEW SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY/FOLLOW
FROPA...MAINLY ACROSS SRN CT WHERE HAVE CARRIED SCT POP UNTIL
ABOUT 23Z-00Z. THEN EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR...WITH A
BRISK W TO WNW FLOW DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WINDS SIDED WITH THE COLDER GUIDANCE...WITH UPPER 20S
INLAND AND IN THE LONG ISLAND PINE BARRENS...LOWER 30S MOST
ELSEWHERE...AND MID/UPPER 30S INVOF NYC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ALBERTA CLIPPER LOW NOW MOVING SE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS WILL
CONTINUE SE...REACHING THE NRN MID ATLANTIC BY TUE AFTERNOON.
EXPECT TUE MORNING TO BE DRY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS...THEN PRECIP
SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. HAVE LIKELY/CAT POP
FOR NEARLY THE ENTIRE CWA...EXCEPT FOR SOUTHERN CT AS THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR NORTH THE ASSOCIATED PRECIP SHIELD
WILL EXTEND SINCE NWP GUIDANCE SHOWS BEST WAA AND H5 FORCING
PASSING MAINLY OVER NYC METRO/LONG ISLAND AND POINTS SOUTH.

PRECIP DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS SHOULD BE MAINLY RAIN FOR NYC
METRO AND LONG ISLAND...BUT INLAND THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO
PRECIP TYPE. ATTM EXPECT AN ELEVATION-DEPENDENT SNOWFALL...WITH A
COLD RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND MOSTLY
SNOW IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. P-TYPE SHOULD TREND MORE TOWARD
SNOW THROUGHOUT BEFORE ENDING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS VIA
WET-BULB COOLING AND AN INCREASING COLDER NORTHERLY FLOW. ATTM
EXPECT LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IN NYC METRO...NO MORE THAN A
COATING MOST ELSEWHERE AND UP TO AN INCH IN THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS. THE WORST-CASE SCENARIO WOULD BE A COATING OF
ACCUMULATION IN NYC...UP TO AN INCH MOST ELSEWHERE...AND 1-2
INCHES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A PROGRESSIVE...YET SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER
48...WILL BE FEATURED DURING THE PERIOD.  THIS WILL RESULT IN
SEVERAL SWINGS IN THE TEMP REGIME AS WE GO FROM BELOW NORMAL AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD...TO ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
FRONTAL SYSTEM AT THE END OF THE WEEK...FOLLOWED BY YET ANOTHER SHOT
OF UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR AT THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND. THERE ARE ALSO
SOME TIMING ISSUES...IN PARTICULAR WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM AT THE
END OF THE WEEK. THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH A RAINFALL WITH A
FRONTAL WAVE...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS THAT WAVE DISPLACED FARTHER NORTH
AND WEST. EVEN SO...BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF DRY CONDITIONS OUT
BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SAT. THE DIFFERENCES ARISE DUE TO
THE TIMING OF THE PAC SHORTWAVE ENERGY. THE SPECIFICS OF SUCH CAN
NOT BE WORKED OUT THIS EARLY IN THE FORECAST PROCESS. PREFERENCE WAS
TO TAKE A MIDDLE GROUND APPROACH WITH THE TIMING OF THE LATE
WEEK SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...AND THEN
WEAK LOW PRES IMPACTS THE TERMINALS LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE W/NW ACROSS THE WESTERN TERMINALS AND WILL
SHIFT FROM THE W-SW TO THE W/NW OVER EASTERN TERMINALS BY EARLY THIS
EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT WORKS ITS WAY EAST. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE
AROUND 15 KT WITH 25 KT GUSTS AFTER ITS PASSAGE...AND THEN GUSTS END
AND WINDS DIMINISH TO 8-12 KT THIS EVENING.

AFTER MIDNIGHT...WEST WINDS WILL AVERAGE 5-8 KT...AND THEN
INCREASE BY A FEW KT LATE TUESDAY MORNING.

BKN DECK AROUND 4000 FT LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL SCATTER OUT THIS
EVENING...AND THEN SKC CONDS EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. MID-
DECK INCREASES TUESDAY MORNING AS LOW PRES APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

VFR THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY.

FOR THE 30-HR SITES...KJFK/KEWR/KSWF...MVFR CONDS IN RAIN FOR
KJFK/KEWR AND -SN FOR KSWF AFT 21Z TUESDAY.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS 270-290 MAG WITH PEAK GUSTS 25-27 KT
THROUGH 23Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS 280-300 MAG WITH PEAK GUSTS 25 TO 28 KT
THROUGH 23Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS 260-280 MAG WITH PEAK GUSTS AROUND 25
KT THROUGH 23Z.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: W-NW WINDS WITH PEAK GUSTS UP TO 25 KT
THROUGH 23Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: W-NW WINDS WITH PEAK GUSTS UP TO 25 KT
THROUGH 23Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: W-NW WINDS WITH PEAK GUSTS AROUND 25 KT
THROUGH 00Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY AFTERNOON...MVFR IN DEVELOPING RAIN/SNOW.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...CONDS IMPROVING TO VFR BY MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT.
.WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...VFR.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS.
.SATURDAY...MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA IN EFFECT ATTM FOR NY HARBOR AND THE OCEAN WATERS. COLD FROPA
HAS BROUGHT W WINDS GUSTING TO 25-30 KT TO THE HARBOR THAT SHOULD
PERSIST UNTIL 8 PM OR SO. SEAS ON THE OCEAN ARE 4-6 FT ATTM AND
MAY INCREASE ANOTHER FT OUT EAST AS THE FLOW SHIFTS FROM SW TO W
AFTER FROPA TONIGHT. GUSTS OUT EAST AFTER FROPA SHOULD REACH SCA
LEVELS AS WELL...BUT DID NOT ISSUE SCA FOR THE WRN SOUND OR THE
SOUTH SHORE BAYS AS GUSTS TO 25 KT LOOK TO BE ONLY BRIEF/OCNL IN
NATURE EARLY THIS EVENING.

SCA CONDS COULD LAST ON THE OCEAN THROUGH TUE NIGHT...AND ALSO
RETURN TO THE ERN WATERS TUE NIGHT...AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE
S AND NORTHERLY FLOW INCREASES IN ITS WAKE. THEN EXPECT SUB-SMALL
CRAFT LEVEL CONDITIONS WED THROUGH THU AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINS OVER THE REGION. WIND GUSTS AND WAVES INCREASE TO SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING THE OCEAN
WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
QPF OF 1/10 TO 1/4 INCH EXPECTED TUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AT THE
END OF THE WEEK WITH A FRONTAL WAVE ALONG A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL
SYSTEM.

RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW BANK FULL...BUT
INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT WILL CONTINUE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT INTO
THIS WEEKEND. ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY
OCCUR...COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING
IS UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS
SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ338.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ330-340.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/DW
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...GOODMAN/DW
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/DW




000
FXUS61 KOKX 302024
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
424 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS LATE TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A QUICK MOVING LOW
PASSING TO THE SOUTH ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
PLAINS. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL THEN PROGRESS SLOWLY ACROSS THE
AREA FROM LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN LATER THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT HAD PASSED NYC METRO AS OF 20Z AND WAS MOVING INTO SRN
CT AND LONG ISLAND. A FEW SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY/FOLLOW
FROPA...MAINLY ACROSS SRN CT WHERE HAVE CARRIED SCT POP UNTIL
ABOUT 23Z-00Z. THEN EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR...WITH A
BRISK W TO WNW FLOW DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WINDS SIDED WITH THE COLDER GUIDANCE...WITH UPPER 20S
INLAND AND IN THE LONG ISLAND PINE BARRENS...LOWER 30S MOST
ELSEWHERE...AND MID/UPPER 30S INVOF NYC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ALBERTA CLIPPER LOW NOW MOVING SE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS WILL
CONTINUE SE...REACHING THE NRN MID ATLANTIC BY TUE AFTERNOON.
EXPECT TUE MORNING TO BE DRY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS...THEN PRECIP
SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. HAVE LIKELY/CAT POP
FOR NEARLY THE ENTIRE CWA...EXCEPT FOR SOUTHERN CT AS THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR NORTH THE ASSOCIATED PRECIP SHIELD
WILL EXTEND SINCE NWP GUIDANCE SHOWS BEST WAA AND H5 FORCING
PASSING MAINLY OVER NYC METRO/LONG ISLAND AND POINTS SOUTH.

PRECIP DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS SHOULD BE MAINLY RAIN FOR NYC
METRO AND LONG ISLAND...BUT INLAND THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO
PRECIP TYPE. ATTM EXPECT AN ELEVATION-DEPENDENT SNOWFALL...WITH A
COLD RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND MOSTLY
SNOW IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. P-TYPE SHOULD TREND MORE TOWARD
SNOW THROUGHOUT BEFORE ENDING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS VIA
WET-BULB COOLING AND AN INCREASING COLDER NORTHERLY FLOW. ATTM
EXPECT LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IN NYC METRO...NO MORE THAN A
COATING MOST ELSEWHERE AND UP TO AN INCH IN THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS. THE WORST-CASE SCENARIO WOULD BE A COATING OF
ACCUMULATION IN NYC...UP TO AN INCH MOST ELSEWHERE...AND 1-2
INCHES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A PROGRESSIVE...YET SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER
48...WILL BE FEATURED DURING THE PERIOD.  THIS WILL RESULT IN
SEVERAL SWINGS IN THE TEMP REGIME AS WE GO FROM BELOW NORMAL AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD...TO ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
FRONTAL SYSTEM AT THE END OF THE WEEK...FOLLOWED BY YET ANOTHER SHOT
OF UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR AT THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND. THERE ARE ALSO
SOME TIMING ISSUES...IN PARTICULAR WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM AT THE
END OF THE WEEK. THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH A RAINFALL WITH A
FRONTAL WAVE...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS THAT WAVE DISPLACED FARTHER NORTH
AND WEST. EVEN SO...BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF DRY CONDITIONS OUT
BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SAT. THE DIFFERENCES ARISE DUE TO
THE TIMING OF THE PAC SHORTWAVE ENERGY. THE SPECIFICS OF SUCH CAN
NOT BE WORKED OUT THIS EARLY IN THE FORECAST PROCESS. PREFERENCE WAS
TO TAKE A MIDDLE GROUND APPROACH WITH THE TIMING OF THE LATE
WEEK SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...AND THEN
WEAK LOW PRES IMPACTS THE TERMINALS LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE W/NW ACROSS THE WESTERN TERMINALS AND WILL
SHIFT FROM THE W-SW TO THE W/NW OVER EASTERN TERMINALS BY EARLY THIS
EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT WORKS ITS WAY EAST. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE
AROUND 15 KT WITH 25 KT GUSTS AFTER ITS PASSAGE...AND THEN GUSTS END
AND WINDS DIMINISH TO 8-12 KT THIS EVENING.

AFTER MIDNIGHT...WEST WINDS WILL AVERAGE 5-8 KT...AND THEN
INCREASE BY A FEW KT LATE TUESDAY MORNING.

BKN DECK AROUND 4000 FT LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL SCATTER OUT THIS
EVENING...AND THEN SKC CONDS EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. MID-
DECK INCREASES TUESDAY MORNING AS LOW PRES APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

VFR THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY.

FOR THE 30-HR SITES...KJFK/KEWR/KSWF...MVFR CONDS IN RAIN FOR
KJFK/KEWR AND -SN FOR KSWF AFT 21Z TUESDAY.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS 270-290 MAG WITH PEAK GUSTS 25-27 KT
THROUGH 23Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS 280-300 MAG WITH PEAK GUSTS 25 TO 28 KT
THROUGH 23Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS 260-280 MAG WITH PEAK GUSTS AROUND 25
KT THROUGH 23Z.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: W-NW WINDS WITH PEAK GUSTS UP TO 25 KT
THROUGH 23Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: W-NW WINDS WITH PEAK GUSTS UP TO 25 KT
THROUGH 23Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: W-NW WINDS WITH PEAK GUSTS AROUND 25 KT
THROUGH 00Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY AFTERNOON...MVFR IN DEVELOPING RAIN/SNOW.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...CONDS IMPROVING TO VFR BY MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT.
.WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...VFR.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS.
.SATURDAY...MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA IN EFFECT ATTM FOR NY HARBOR AND THE OCEAN WATERS. COLD FROPA
HAS BROUGHT W WINDS GUSTING TO 25-30 KT TO THE HARBOR THAT SHOULD
PERSIST UNTIL 8 PM OR SO. SEAS ON THE OCEAN ARE 4-6 FT ATTM AND
MAY INCREASE ANOTHER FT OUT EAST AS THE FLOW SHIFTS FROM SW TO W
AFTER FROPA TONIGHT. GUSTS OUT EAST AFTER FROPA SHOULD REACH SCA
LEVELS AS WELL...BUT DID NOT ISSUE SCA FOR THE WRN SOUND OR THE
SOUTH SHORE BAYS AS GUSTS TO 25 KT LOOK TO BE ONLY BRIEF/OCNL IN
NATURE EARLY THIS EVENING.

SCA CONDS COULD LAST ON THE OCEAN THROUGH TUE NIGHT...AND ALSO
RETURN TO THE ERN WATERS TUE NIGHT...AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE
S AND NORTHERLY FLOW INCREASES IN ITS WAKE. THEN EXPECT SUB-SMALL
CRAFT LEVEL CONDITIONS WED THROUGH THU AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINS OVER THE REGION. WIND GUSTS AND WAVES INCREASE TO SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING THE OCEAN
WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
QPF OF 1/10 TO 1/4 INCH EXPECTED TUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AT THE
END OF THE WEEK WITH A FRONTAL WAVE ALONG A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL
SYSTEM.

RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW BANK FULL...BUT
INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT WILL CONTINUE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT INTO
THIS WEEKEND. ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY
OCCUR...COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING
IS UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS
SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ338.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ330-340.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/DW
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...GOODMAN/DW
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/DW




000
FXUS61 KOKX 302024
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
424 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS LATE TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A QUICK MOVING LOW
PASSING TO THE SOUTH ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
PLAINS. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL THEN PROGRESS SLOWLY ACROSS THE
AREA FROM LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN LATER THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT HAD PASSED NYC METRO AS OF 20Z AND WAS MOVING INTO SRN
CT AND LONG ISLAND. A FEW SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY/FOLLOW
FROPA...MAINLY ACROSS SRN CT WHERE HAVE CARRIED SCT POP UNTIL
ABOUT 23Z-00Z. THEN EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR...WITH A
BRISK W TO WNW FLOW DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WINDS SIDED WITH THE COLDER GUIDANCE...WITH UPPER 20S
INLAND AND IN THE LONG ISLAND PINE BARRENS...LOWER 30S MOST
ELSEWHERE...AND MID/UPPER 30S INVOF NYC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ALBERTA CLIPPER LOW NOW MOVING SE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS WILL
CONTINUE SE...REACHING THE NRN MID ATLANTIC BY TUE AFTERNOON.
EXPECT TUE MORNING TO BE DRY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS...THEN PRECIP
SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. HAVE LIKELY/CAT POP
FOR NEARLY THE ENTIRE CWA...EXCEPT FOR SOUTHERN CT AS THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR NORTH THE ASSOCIATED PRECIP SHIELD
WILL EXTEND SINCE NWP GUIDANCE SHOWS BEST WAA AND H5 FORCING
PASSING MAINLY OVER NYC METRO/LONG ISLAND AND POINTS SOUTH.

PRECIP DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS SHOULD BE MAINLY RAIN FOR NYC
METRO AND LONG ISLAND...BUT INLAND THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO
PRECIP TYPE. ATTM EXPECT AN ELEVATION-DEPENDENT SNOWFALL...WITH A
COLD RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND MOSTLY
SNOW IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. P-TYPE SHOULD TREND MORE TOWARD
SNOW THROUGHOUT BEFORE ENDING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS VIA
WET-BULB COOLING AND AN INCREASING COLDER NORTHERLY FLOW. ATTM
EXPECT LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IN NYC METRO...NO MORE THAN A
COATING MOST ELSEWHERE AND UP TO AN INCH IN THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS. THE WORST-CASE SCENARIO WOULD BE A COATING OF
ACCUMULATION IN NYC...UP TO AN INCH MOST ELSEWHERE...AND 1-2
INCHES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A PROGRESSIVE...YET SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER
48...WILL BE FEATURED DURING THE PERIOD.  THIS WILL RESULT IN
SEVERAL SWINGS IN THE TEMP REGIME AS WE GO FROM BELOW NORMAL AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD...TO ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
FRONTAL SYSTEM AT THE END OF THE WEEK...FOLLOWED BY YET ANOTHER SHOT
OF UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR AT THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND. THERE ARE ALSO
SOME TIMING ISSUES...IN PARTICULAR WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM AT THE
END OF THE WEEK. THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH A RAINFALL WITH A
FRONTAL WAVE...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS THAT WAVE DISPLACED FARTHER NORTH
AND WEST. EVEN SO...BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF DRY CONDITIONS OUT
BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SAT. THE DIFFERENCES ARISE DUE TO
THE TIMING OF THE PAC SHORTWAVE ENERGY. THE SPECIFICS OF SUCH CAN
NOT BE WORKED OUT THIS EARLY IN THE FORECAST PROCESS. PREFERENCE WAS
TO TAKE A MIDDLE GROUND APPROACH WITH THE TIMING OF THE LATE
WEEK SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...AND THEN
WEAK LOW PRES IMPACTS THE TERMINALS LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE W/NW ACROSS THE WESTERN TERMINALS AND WILL
SHIFT FROM THE W-SW TO THE W/NW OVER EASTERN TERMINALS BY EARLY THIS
EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT WORKS ITS WAY EAST. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE
AROUND 15 KT WITH 25 KT GUSTS AFTER ITS PASSAGE...AND THEN GUSTS END
AND WINDS DIMINISH TO 8-12 KT THIS EVENING.

AFTER MIDNIGHT...WEST WINDS WILL AVERAGE 5-8 KT...AND THEN
INCREASE BY A FEW KT LATE TUESDAY MORNING.

BKN DECK AROUND 4000 FT LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL SCATTER OUT THIS
EVENING...AND THEN SKC CONDS EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. MID-
DECK INCREASES TUESDAY MORNING AS LOW PRES APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

VFR THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY.

FOR THE 30-HR SITES...KJFK/KEWR/KSWF...MVFR CONDS IN RAIN FOR
KJFK/KEWR AND -SN FOR KSWF AFT 21Z TUESDAY.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS 270-290 MAG WITH PEAK GUSTS 25-27 KT
THROUGH 23Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS 280-300 MAG WITH PEAK GUSTS 25 TO 28 KT
THROUGH 23Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS 260-280 MAG WITH PEAK GUSTS AROUND 25
KT THROUGH 23Z.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: W-NW WINDS WITH PEAK GUSTS UP TO 25 KT
THROUGH 23Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: W-NW WINDS WITH PEAK GUSTS UP TO 25 KT
THROUGH 23Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: W-NW WINDS WITH PEAK GUSTS AROUND 25 KT
THROUGH 00Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY AFTERNOON...MVFR IN DEVELOPING RAIN/SNOW.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...CONDS IMPROVING TO VFR BY MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT.
.WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...VFR.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS.
.SATURDAY...MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA IN EFFECT ATTM FOR NY HARBOR AND THE OCEAN WATERS. COLD FROPA
HAS BROUGHT W WINDS GUSTING TO 25-30 KT TO THE HARBOR THAT SHOULD
PERSIST UNTIL 8 PM OR SO. SEAS ON THE OCEAN ARE 4-6 FT ATTM AND
MAY INCREASE ANOTHER FT OUT EAST AS THE FLOW SHIFTS FROM SW TO W
AFTER FROPA TONIGHT. GUSTS OUT EAST AFTER FROPA SHOULD REACH SCA
LEVELS AS WELL...BUT DID NOT ISSUE SCA FOR THE WRN SOUND OR THE
SOUTH SHORE BAYS AS GUSTS TO 25 KT LOOK TO BE ONLY BRIEF/OCNL IN
NATURE EARLY THIS EVENING.

SCA CONDS COULD LAST ON THE OCEAN THROUGH TUE NIGHT...AND ALSO
RETURN TO THE ERN WATERS TUE NIGHT...AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE
S AND NORTHERLY FLOW INCREASES IN ITS WAKE. THEN EXPECT SUB-SMALL
CRAFT LEVEL CONDITIONS WED THROUGH THU AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINS OVER THE REGION. WIND GUSTS AND WAVES INCREASE TO SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING THE OCEAN
WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
QPF OF 1/10 TO 1/4 INCH EXPECTED TUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AT THE
END OF THE WEEK WITH A FRONTAL WAVE ALONG A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL
SYSTEM.

RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW BANK FULL...BUT
INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT WILL CONTINUE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT INTO
THIS WEEKEND. ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY
OCCUR...COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING
IS UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS
SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ338.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ330-340.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/DW
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...GOODMAN/DW
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/DW



000
FXUS61 KALY 302018
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
418 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TONIGHT...BUT A DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING MORE CLOUDS TO OUR AREA...AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE FAR
SOUTH OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO BRING FAIR WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION AS COLD
ADVECTION BUILDS EAST. LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS/SNOW SHOWERS
TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION...AND WILL TEND TO DECREASE IN
COVERAGE THROUGH THIS EVENING AND THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WEST
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT SHOULD NOT GO
CALM. THE COMBINATION OF THE CLOUDS AND WINDS SHOULD PREVENT
TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO MUCH. LOWS IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER IMPULSE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND NORTHERN MS RIVER VALLEY
TRACKS TOWARD OUR REGION TUESDAY...AND JUST BARELY SCRAPES
SOUTHERN AREAS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CLOUDS COULD
EXTEND NORTH THROUGH CENTRAL NY AND SOUTHERN VT. WINDS SHOULD BE
LIGHT. SO...HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 40S...WITH HIGHEST TEMPERATURES
POTENTIALLY IN NORTHERN AREAS WHERE SOME FILTERED SUN CAN OCCUR.
HIGHS IN THE 30S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH LIGHT RAIN
DEVELOPING IN THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON...SOME SNOW IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

ANY RAIN AND SNOW ENDS DURING THE EVENING...AND THERE COULD BE
AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW IN HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE CATSKILLS...
WITH MAYBE A DUSTING IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. CLOUDS
GRADUALLY EXIT THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND COLD ADVECTION SPREADS
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S...TEENS IN NORTHERN
AREAS...WHERE MOST CLEARING IS EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE AND SUNNY SKY EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH THE
COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE...EVEN WITH STRONG EARLY APRIL SUN...HIGHS
IN THE 40S...SOME 30S NORTHERN AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD
DURING WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS.
TEMPERATURES DROP TO LOWS IN THE 20S DURING THE EVENING...SOME
TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS. AFTER MIDNIGHT...SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AND LOW LEVEL WINDS TURN TO
LIGHT SOUTH. SO TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD STEADY OR RISE A COUPLE
OF DEGREES TOWARD DAYBREAK.

INTERVALS OF CLOUDS THURSDAY AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHIFT TO
WEST AND SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE RAPIDLY. BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES RISE QUICKLY THROUGH THE DAY AND THE TIGHTENING
THERMAL GRADIENT AND INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD SUPPORT
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. THERE ARE HINTS
THAT SOME OF THE CLOUD COVER COULD BREAK FOR A BRIEF TIME DURING
THE AFTERNOON BUT TIMING AND DURATION COULD BE TOO LATE AND TOO
SHORT TO BOOST TEMPERATURES BEYOND THE 50S...40S IN NORTHERN
AREAS. IF DOWNSLOPING AND LONGER PERIOD OF BREAKS IN CLOUDS
THURSDAY...OPTIMUM MIXING COULD SUPPORT TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S
IN SOME AREAS...BUT NO CLEAR SIGNAL FOR THAT KIND OF WARMTH. SO...
AGAIN...HIGHS THURSDAY WITH AFTERNOON ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS...IN THE 50S...WITH SOME 40S NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS FAST-MOVONG SYSTEMS CONTINUE...
WITH MODELS FORECASTING NEITHER STRONG SYSTEMS NOR STRONG AREAS OF
HIGH PRESSURE.  THUS...THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN SHOWERY...AND WITH
FREQUENTLY MIXED PRECIPITATION TYPES DEPENDENT UPON TIME OF DAY...
TERRAIN...CLOUDINESS...AND THE COLD AIR IN PLAY.  THE EARLY PART OF
THE PERIOD WILL SEE THIS ACTIVITY...WHILE SUNDAY ON LOOKS TO BE DRY.
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PRESSING SOUTHWARD WILL KEEP SIGNIFICANT
CLOUDINESS IN THE ZONES...BUT THERE SHOULD BE PLENTIFUL PERIODS OF
SUNSHINE.

THE SIGNS OF SPRING WILL BE APPARENT...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.  AFTER THIS...
HOWEVER...READINGS RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S
AND 40S.  THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD...WITH LOWS FROM
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.  BUT BY SATURDAY NIGHT...ALL LOCATIONS WILL
FREEZE...WITH THIS TO BE REPEATED SUNDAY NIGHT.  THE ADIRONDACKS AND
GREENS WILL HAVE LOCATIONS DOWN IN THE TEENS...BUT EVERYONE ELSE
WILL BE ABLE TO STAY UP IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S.  NORMAL HIGHS AT
ALBANY FOR THIS PERIOD ARE IN THE MID 50S...WITH NORMAL LOWS IN THE
MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES INTO THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD...BUT MOSTLY VFR CIGS EXPECTED. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR
WILL BE AT KPSF WHERE SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AND LOWER CIGS
ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING...WITH CIGS STAYING DOWN OVERNIGHT. THE
OTHER TAF SITES MIGHT SEE A STRAY SHOWER BUT CIG/VSBY SHOULD
REMAIN VFR. TUESDAY MORNING EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH A
THICKENING AND LOWERING MID CLOUD DECK BY NOON.

WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WITH GUSTS OF 18
TO 25 KTS DURING MID/LATE AFTERNOON. AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...THE
WIND WILL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND SPEEDS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH...DROPPING TO 5 TO 10 KTS BY LATE TONIGHT...WITH SOME
GUSTS TO 15 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TONIGHT...BUT A DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING MORE CLOUDS TO OUR AREA...AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE FAR
SOUTH OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO BRING FAIR WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY.

RH VALUES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL MAXIMIZE BETWEEN 65 AND
95 PERCENT. MINIMUM RH VALUES TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL RANGE
BETWEEN 40 AND 60 PERCENT. MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WILL RANGE BETWEEN 25 AND 45 PERCENT.

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT 15 TO 25 MPH EARLY THIS EVENING WILL
DIMINISH TO AROUND 15 MPH TOWARD DAYBREAK. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD BE AROUND 15 MPH THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...THEN DIMINISH TO
LESS THAN 15 MPH TUESDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AT 15 TO 25 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WHICH
WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY
IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...SND/NAS



000
FXUS61 KALY 302018
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
418 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TONIGHT...BUT A DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING MORE CLOUDS TO OUR AREA...AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE FAR
SOUTH OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO BRING FAIR WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION AS COLD
ADVECTION BUILDS EAST. LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS/SNOW SHOWERS
TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION...AND WILL TEND TO DECREASE IN
COVERAGE THROUGH THIS EVENING AND THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WEST
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT SHOULD NOT GO
CALM. THE COMBINATION OF THE CLOUDS AND WINDS SHOULD PREVENT
TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO MUCH. LOWS IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER IMPULSE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND NORTHERN MS RIVER VALLEY
TRACKS TOWARD OUR REGION TUESDAY...AND JUST BARELY SCRAPES
SOUTHERN AREAS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CLOUDS COULD
EXTEND NORTH THROUGH CENTRAL NY AND SOUTHERN VT. WINDS SHOULD BE
LIGHT. SO...HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 40S...WITH HIGHEST TEMPERATURES
POTENTIALLY IN NORTHERN AREAS WHERE SOME FILTERED SUN CAN OCCUR.
HIGHS IN THE 30S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH LIGHT RAIN
DEVELOPING IN THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON...SOME SNOW IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

ANY RAIN AND SNOW ENDS DURING THE EVENING...AND THERE COULD BE
AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW IN HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE CATSKILLS...
WITH MAYBE A DUSTING IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. CLOUDS
GRADUALLY EXIT THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND COLD ADVECTION SPREADS
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S...TEENS IN NORTHERN
AREAS...WHERE MOST CLEARING IS EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE AND SUNNY SKY EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH THE
COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE...EVEN WITH STRONG EARLY APRIL SUN...HIGHS
IN THE 40S...SOME 30S NORTHERN AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD
DURING WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS.
TEMPERATURES DROP TO LOWS IN THE 20S DURING THE EVENING...SOME
TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS. AFTER MIDNIGHT...SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AND LOW LEVEL WINDS TURN TO
LIGHT SOUTH. SO TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD STEADY OR RISE A COUPLE
OF DEGREES TOWARD DAYBREAK.

INTERVALS OF CLOUDS THURSDAY AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHIFT TO
WEST AND SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE RAPIDLY. BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES RISE QUICKLY THROUGH THE DAY AND THE TIGHTENING
THERMAL GRADIENT AND INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD SUPPORT
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. THERE ARE HINTS
THAT SOME OF THE CLOUD COVER COULD BREAK FOR A BRIEF TIME DURING
THE AFTERNOON BUT TIMING AND DURATION COULD BE TOO LATE AND TOO
SHORT TO BOOST TEMPERATURES BEYOND THE 50S...40S IN NORTHERN
AREAS. IF DOWNSLOPING AND LONGER PERIOD OF BREAKS IN CLOUDS
THURSDAY...OPTIMUM MIXING COULD SUPPORT TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S
IN SOME AREAS...BUT NO CLEAR SIGNAL FOR THAT KIND OF WARMTH. SO...
AGAIN...HIGHS THURSDAY WITH AFTERNOON ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS...IN THE 50S...WITH SOME 40S NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS FAST-MOVONG SYSTEMS CONTINUE...
WITH MODELS FORECASTING NEITHER STRONG SYSTEMS NOR STRONG AREAS OF
HIGH PRESSURE.  THUS...THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN SHOWERY...AND WITH
FREQUENTLY MIXED PRECIPITATION TYPES DEPENDENT UPON TIME OF DAY...
TERRAIN...CLOUDINESS...AND THE COLD AIR IN PLAY.  THE EARLY PART OF
THE PERIOD WILL SEE THIS ACTIVITY...WHILE SUNDAY ON LOOKS TO BE DRY.
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PRESSING SOUTHWARD WILL KEEP SIGNIFICANT
CLOUDINESS IN THE ZONES...BUT THERE SHOULD BE PLENTIFUL PERIODS OF
SUNSHINE.

THE SIGNS OF SPRING WILL BE APPARENT...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.  AFTER THIS...
HOWEVER...READINGS RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S
AND 40S.  THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD...WITH LOWS FROM
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.  BUT BY SATURDAY NIGHT...ALL LOCATIONS WILL
FREEZE...WITH THIS TO BE REPEATED SUNDAY NIGHT.  THE ADIRONDACKS AND
GREENS WILL HAVE LOCATIONS DOWN IN THE TEENS...BUT EVERYONE ELSE
WILL BE ABLE TO STAY UP IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S.  NORMAL HIGHS AT
ALBANY FOR THIS PERIOD ARE IN THE MID 50S...WITH NORMAL LOWS IN THE
MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES INTO THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD...BUT MOSTLY VFR CIGS EXPECTED. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR
WILL BE AT KPSF WHERE SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AND LOWER CIGS
ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING...WITH CIGS STAYING DOWN OVERNIGHT. THE
OTHER TAF SITES MIGHT SEE A STRAY SHOWER BUT CIG/VSBY SHOULD
REMAIN VFR. TUESDAY MORNING EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH A
THICKENING AND LOWERING MID CLOUD DECK BY NOON.

WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WITH GUSTS OF 18
TO 25 KTS DURING MID/LATE AFTERNOON. AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...THE
WIND WILL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND SPEEDS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH...DROPPING TO 5 TO 10 KTS BY LATE TONIGHT...WITH SOME
GUSTS TO 15 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TONIGHT...BUT A DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING MORE CLOUDS TO OUR AREA...AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE FAR
SOUTH OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO BRING FAIR WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY.

RH VALUES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL MAXIMIZE BETWEEN 65 AND
95 PERCENT. MINIMUM RH VALUES TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL RANGE
BETWEEN 40 AND 60 PERCENT. MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WILL RANGE BETWEEN 25 AND 45 PERCENT.

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT 15 TO 25 MPH EARLY THIS EVENING WILL
DIMINISH TO AROUND 15 MPH TOWARD DAYBREAK. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD BE AROUND 15 MPH THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...THEN DIMINISH TO
LESS THAN 15 MPH TUESDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AT 15 TO 25 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WHICH
WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY
IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...SND/NAS




000
FXUS61 KALY 302018
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
418 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TONIGHT...BUT A DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING MORE CLOUDS TO OUR AREA...AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE FAR
SOUTH OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO BRING FAIR WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION AS COLD
ADVECTION BUILDS EAST. LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS/SNOW SHOWERS
TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION...AND WILL TEND TO DECREASE IN
COVERAGE THROUGH THIS EVENING AND THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WEST
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT SHOULD NOT GO
CALM. THE COMBINATION OF THE CLOUDS AND WINDS SHOULD PREVENT
TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO MUCH. LOWS IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER IMPULSE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND NORTHERN MS RIVER VALLEY
TRACKS TOWARD OUR REGION TUESDAY...AND JUST BARELY SCRAPES
SOUTHERN AREAS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CLOUDS COULD
EXTEND NORTH THROUGH CENTRAL NY AND SOUTHERN VT. WINDS SHOULD BE
LIGHT. SO...HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 40S...WITH HIGHEST TEMPERATURES
POTENTIALLY IN NORTHERN AREAS WHERE SOME FILTERED SUN CAN OCCUR.
HIGHS IN THE 30S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH LIGHT RAIN
DEVELOPING IN THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON...SOME SNOW IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

ANY RAIN AND SNOW ENDS DURING THE EVENING...AND THERE COULD BE
AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW IN HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE CATSKILLS...
WITH MAYBE A DUSTING IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. CLOUDS
GRADUALLY EXIT THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND COLD ADVECTION SPREADS
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S...TEENS IN NORTHERN
AREAS...WHERE MOST CLEARING IS EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE AND SUNNY SKY EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH THE
COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE...EVEN WITH STRONG EARLY APRIL SUN...HIGHS
IN THE 40S...SOME 30S NORTHERN AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD
DURING WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS.
TEMPERATURES DROP TO LOWS IN THE 20S DURING THE EVENING...SOME
TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS. AFTER MIDNIGHT...SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AND LOW LEVEL WINDS TURN TO
LIGHT SOUTH. SO TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD STEADY OR RISE A COUPLE
OF DEGREES TOWARD DAYBREAK.

INTERVALS OF CLOUDS THURSDAY AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHIFT TO
WEST AND SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE RAPIDLY. BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES RISE QUICKLY THROUGH THE DAY AND THE TIGHTENING
THERMAL GRADIENT AND INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD SUPPORT
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. THERE ARE HINTS
THAT SOME OF THE CLOUD COVER COULD BREAK FOR A BRIEF TIME DURING
THE AFTERNOON BUT TIMING AND DURATION COULD BE TOO LATE AND TOO
SHORT TO BOOST TEMPERATURES BEYOND THE 50S...40S IN NORTHERN
AREAS. IF DOWNSLOPING AND LONGER PERIOD OF BREAKS IN CLOUDS
THURSDAY...OPTIMUM MIXING COULD SUPPORT TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S
IN SOME AREAS...BUT NO CLEAR SIGNAL FOR THAT KIND OF WARMTH. SO...
AGAIN...HIGHS THURSDAY WITH AFTERNOON ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS...IN THE 50S...WITH SOME 40S NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS FAST-MOVONG SYSTEMS CONTINUE...
WITH MODELS FORECASTING NEITHER STRONG SYSTEMS NOR STRONG AREAS OF
HIGH PRESSURE.  THUS...THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN SHOWERY...AND WITH
FREQUENTLY MIXED PRECIPITATION TYPES DEPENDENT UPON TIME OF DAY...
TERRAIN...CLOUDINESS...AND THE COLD AIR IN PLAY.  THE EARLY PART OF
THE PERIOD WILL SEE THIS ACTIVITY...WHILE SUNDAY ON LOOKS TO BE DRY.
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PRESSING SOUTHWARD WILL KEEP SIGNIFICANT
CLOUDINESS IN THE ZONES...BUT THERE SHOULD BE PLENTIFUL PERIODS OF
SUNSHINE.

THE SIGNS OF SPRING WILL BE APPARENT...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.  AFTER THIS...
HOWEVER...READINGS RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S
AND 40S.  THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD...WITH LOWS FROM
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.  BUT BY SATURDAY NIGHT...ALL LOCATIONS WILL
FREEZE...WITH THIS TO BE REPEATED SUNDAY NIGHT.  THE ADIRONDACKS AND
GREENS WILL HAVE LOCATIONS DOWN IN THE TEENS...BUT EVERYONE ELSE
WILL BE ABLE TO STAY UP IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S.  NORMAL HIGHS AT
ALBANY FOR THIS PERIOD ARE IN THE MID 50S...WITH NORMAL LOWS IN THE
MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES INTO THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD...BUT MOSTLY VFR CIGS EXPECTED. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR
WILL BE AT KPSF WHERE SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AND LOWER CIGS
ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING...WITH CIGS STAYING DOWN OVERNIGHT. THE
OTHER TAF SITES MIGHT SEE A STRAY SHOWER BUT CIG/VSBY SHOULD
REMAIN VFR. TUESDAY MORNING EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH A
THICKENING AND LOWERING MID CLOUD DECK BY NOON.

WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WITH GUSTS OF 18
TO 25 KTS DURING MID/LATE AFTERNOON. AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...THE
WIND WILL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND SPEEDS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH...DROPPING TO 5 TO 10 KTS BY LATE TONIGHT...WITH SOME
GUSTS TO 15 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TONIGHT...BUT A DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING MORE CLOUDS TO OUR AREA...AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE FAR
SOUTH OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO BRING FAIR WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY.

RH VALUES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL MAXIMIZE BETWEEN 65 AND
95 PERCENT. MINIMUM RH VALUES TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL RANGE
BETWEEN 40 AND 60 PERCENT. MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WILL RANGE BETWEEN 25 AND 45 PERCENT.

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT 15 TO 25 MPH EARLY THIS EVENING WILL
DIMINISH TO AROUND 15 MPH TOWARD DAYBREAK. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD BE AROUND 15 MPH THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...THEN DIMINISH TO
LESS THAN 15 MPH TUESDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AT 15 TO 25 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WHICH
WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY
IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...SND/NAS




000
FXUS61 KALY 302018
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
418 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TONIGHT...BUT A DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING MORE CLOUDS TO OUR AREA...AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE FAR
SOUTH OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO BRING FAIR WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION AS COLD
ADVECTION BUILDS EAST. LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS/SNOW SHOWERS
TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION...AND WILL TEND TO DECREASE IN
COVERAGE THROUGH THIS EVENING AND THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WEST
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT SHOULD NOT GO
CALM. THE COMBINATION OF THE CLOUDS AND WINDS SHOULD PREVENT
TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO MUCH. LOWS IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER IMPULSE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND NORTHERN MS RIVER VALLEY
TRACKS TOWARD OUR REGION TUESDAY...AND JUST BARELY SCRAPES
SOUTHERN AREAS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CLOUDS COULD
EXTEND NORTH THROUGH CENTRAL NY AND SOUTHERN VT. WINDS SHOULD BE
LIGHT. SO...HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 40S...WITH HIGHEST TEMPERATURES
POTENTIALLY IN NORTHERN AREAS WHERE SOME FILTERED SUN CAN OCCUR.
HIGHS IN THE 30S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH LIGHT RAIN
DEVELOPING IN THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON...SOME SNOW IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

ANY RAIN AND SNOW ENDS DURING THE EVENING...AND THERE COULD BE
AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW IN HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE CATSKILLS...
WITH MAYBE A DUSTING IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. CLOUDS
GRADUALLY EXIT THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND COLD ADVECTION SPREADS
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S...TEENS IN NORTHERN
AREAS...WHERE MOST CLEARING IS EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE AND SUNNY SKY EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH THE
COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE...EVEN WITH STRONG EARLY APRIL SUN...HIGHS
IN THE 40S...SOME 30S NORTHERN AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD
DURING WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS.
TEMPERATURES DROP TO LOWS IN THE 20S DURING THE EVENING...SOME
TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS. AFTER MIDNIGHT...SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AND LOW LEVEL WINDS TURN TO
LIGHT SOUTH. SO TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD STEADY OR RISE A COUPLE
OF DEGREES TOWARD DAYBREAK.

INTERVALS OF CLOUDS THURSDAY AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHIFT TO
WEST AND SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE RAPIDLY. BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES RISE QUICKLY THROUGH THE DAY AND THE TIGHTENING
THERMAL GRADIENT AND INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD SUPPORT
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. THERE ARE HINTS
THAT SOME OF THE CLOUD COVER COULD BREAK FOR A BRIEF TIME DURING
THE AFTERNOON BUT TIMING AND DURATION COULD BE TOO LATE AND TOO
SHORT TO BOOST TEMPERATURES BEYOND THE 50S...40S IN NORTHERN
AREAS. IF DOWNSLOPING AND LONGER PERIOD OF BREAKS IN CLOUDS
THURSDAY...OPTIMUM MIXING COULD SUPPORT TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S
IN SOME AREAS...BUT NO CLEAR SIGNAL FOR THAT KIND OF WARMTH. SO...
AGAIN...HIGHS THURSDAY WITH AFTERNOON ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS...IN THE 50S...WITH SOME 40S NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS FAST-MOVONG SYSTEMS CONTINUE...
WITH MODELS FORECASTING NEITHER STRONG SYSTEMS NOR STRONG AREAS OF
HIGH PRESSURE.  THUS...THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN SHOWERY...AND WITH
FREQUENTLY MIXED PRECIPITATION TYPES DEPENDENT UPON TIME OF DAY...
TERRAIN...CLOUDINESS...AND THE COLD AIR IN PLAY.  THE EARLY PART OF
THE PERIOD WILL SEE THIS ACTIVITY...WHILE SUNDAY ON LOOKS TO BE DRY.
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PRESSING SOUTHWARD WILL KEEP SIGNIFICANT
CLOUDINESS IN THE ZONES...BUT THERE SHOULD BE PLENTIFUL PERIODS OF
SUNSHINE.

THE SIGNS OF SPRING WILL BE APPARENT...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.  AFTER THIS...
HOWEVER...READINGS RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S
AND 40S.  THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD...WITH LOWS FROM
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.  BUT BY SATURDAY NIGHT...ALL LOCATIONS WILL
FREEZE...WITH THIS TO BE REPEATED SUNDAY NIGHT.  THE ADIRONDACKS AND
GREENS WILL HAVE LOCATIONS DOWN IN THE TEENS...BUT EVERYONE ELSE
WILL BE ABLE TO STAY UP IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S.  NORMAL HIGHS AT
ALBANY FOR THIS PERIOD ARE IN THE MID 50S...WITH NORMAL LOWS IN THE
MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES INTO THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD...BUT MOSTLY VFR CIGS EXPECTED. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR
WILL BE AT KPSF WHERE SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AND LOWER CIGS
ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING...WITH CIGS STAYING DOWN OVERNIGHT. THE
OTHER TAF SITES MIGHT SEE A STRAY SHOWER BUT CIG/VSBY SHOULD
REMAIN VFR. TUESDAY MORNING EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH A
THICKENING AND LOWERING MID CLOUD DECK BY NOON.

WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WITH GUSTS OF 18
TO 25 KTS DURING MID/LATE AFTERNOON. AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...THE
WIND WILL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND SPEEDS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH...DROPPING TO 5 TO 10 KTS BY LATE TONIGHT...WITH SOME
GUSTS TO 15 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TONIGHT...BUT A DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING MORE CLOUDS TO OUR AREA...AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE FAR
SOUTH OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO BRING FAIR WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY.

RH VALUES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL MAXIMIZE BETWEEN 65 AND
95 PERCENT. MINIMUM RH VALUES TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL RANGE
BETWEEN 40 AND 60 PERCENT. MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WILL RANGE BETWEEN 25 AND 45 PERCENT.

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT 15 TO 25 MPH EARLY THIS EVENING WILL
DIMINISH TO AROUND 15 MPH TOWARD DAYBREAK. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD BE AROUND 15 MPH THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...THEN DIMINISH TO
LESS THAN 15 MPH TUESDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AT 15 TO 25 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WHICH
WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY
IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...SND/NAS




000
FXUS61 KALY 302018
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
418 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TONIGHT...BUT A DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING MORE CLOUDS TO OUR AREA...AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE FAR
SOUTH OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO BRING FAIR WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION AS COLD
ADVECTION BUILDS EAST. LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS/SNOW SHOWERS
TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION...AND WILL TEND TO DECREASE IN
COVERAGE THROUGH THIS EVENING AND THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WEST
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT SHOULD NOT GO
CALM. THE COMBINATION OF THE CLOUDS AND WINDS SHOULD PREVENT
TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO MUCH. LOWS IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER IMPULSE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND NORTHERN MS RIVER VALLEY
TRACKS TOWARD OUR REGION TUESDAY...AND JUST BARELY SCRAPES
SOUTHERN AREAS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CLOUDS COULD
EXTEND NORTH THROUGH CENTRAL NY AND SOUTHERN VT. WINDS SHOULD BE
LIGHT. SO...HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 40S...WITH HIGHEST TEMPERATURES
POTENTIALLY IN NORTHERN AREAS WHERE SOME FILTERED SUN CAN OCCUR.
HIGHS IN THE 30S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH LIGHT RAIN
DEVELOPING IN THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON...SOME SNOW IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

ANY RAIN AND SNOW ENDS DURING THE EVENING...AND THERE COULD BE
AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW IN HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE CATSKILLS...
WITH MAYBE A DUSTING IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. CLOUDS
GRADUALLY EXIT THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND COLD ADVECTION SPREADS
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S...TEENS IN NORTHERN
AREAS...WHERE MOST CLEARING IS EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE AND SUNNY SKY EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH THE
COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE...EVEN WITH STRONG EARLY APRIL SUN...HIGHS
IN THE 40S...SOME 30S NORTHERN AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD
DURING WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS.
TEMPERATURES DROP TO LOWS IN THE 20S DURING THE EVENING...SOME
TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS. AFTER MIDNIGHT...SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AND LOW LEVEL WINDS TURN TO
LIGHT SOUTH. SO TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD STEADY OR RISE A COUPLE
OF DEGREES TOWARD DAYBREAK.

INTERVALS OF CLOUDS THURSDAY AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHIFT TO
WEST AND SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE RAPIDLY. BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES RISE QUICKLY THROUGH THE DAY AND THE TIGHTENING
THERMAL GRADIENT AND INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD SUPPORT
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. THERE ARE HINTS
THAT SOME OF THE CLOUD COVER COULD BREAK FOR A BRIEF TIME DURING
THE AFTERNOON BUT TIMING AND DURATION COULD BE TOO LATE AND TOO
SHORT TO BOOST TEMPERATURES BEYOND THE 50S...40S IN NORTHERN
AREAS. IF DOWNSLOPING AND LONGER PERIOD OF BREAKS IN CLOUDS
THURSDAY...OPTIMUM MIXING COULD SUPPORT TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S
IN SOME AREAS...BUT NO CLEAR SIGNAL FOR THAT KIND OF WARMTH. SO...
AGAIN...HIGHS THURSDAY WITH AFTERNOON ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS...IN THE 50S...WITH SOME 40S NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS FAST-MOVONG SYSTEMS CONTINUE...
WITH MODELS FORECASTING NEITHER STRONG SYSTEMS NOR STRONG AREAS OF
HIGH PRESSURE.  THUS...THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN SHOWERY...AND WITH
FREQUENTLY MIXED PRECIPITATION TYPES DEPENDENT UPON TIME OF DAY...
TERRAIN...CLOUDINESS...AND THE COLD AIR IN PLAY.  THE EARLY PART OF
THE PERIOD WILL SEE THIS ACTIVITY...WHILE SUNDAY ON LOOKS TO BE DRY.
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PRESSING SOUTHWARD WILL KEEP SIGNIFICANT
CLOUDINESS IN THE ZONES...BUT THERE SHOULD BE PLENTIFUL PERIODS OF
SUNSHINE.

THE SIGNS OF SPRING WILL BE APPARENT...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.  AFTER THIS...
HOWEVER...READINGS RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S
AND 40S.  THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD...WITH LOWS FROM
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.  BUT BY SATURDAY NIGHT...ALL LOCATIONS WILL
FREEZE...WITH THIS TO BE REPEATED SUNDAY NIGHT.  THE ADIRONDACKS AND
GREENS WILL HAVE LOCATIONS DOWN IN THE TEENS...BUT EVERYONE ELSE
WILL BE ABLE TO STAY UP IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S.  NORMAL HIGHS AT
ALBANY FOR THIS PERIOD ARE IN THE MID 50S...WITH NORMAL LOWS IN THE
MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES INTO THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD...BUT MOSTLY VFR CIGS EXPECTED. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR
WILL BE AT KPSF WHERE SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AND LOWER CIGS
ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING...WITH CIGS STAYING DOWN OVERNIGHT. THE
OTHER TAF SITES MIGHT SEE A STRAY SHOWER BUT CIG/VSBY SHOULD
REMAIN VFR. TUESDAY MORNING EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH A
THICKENING AND LOWERING MID CLOUD DECK BY NOON.

WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WITH GUSTS OF 18
TO 25 KTS DURING MID/LATE AFTERNOON. AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...THE
WIND WILL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND SPEEDS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH...DROPPING TO 5 TO 10 KTS BY LATE TONIGHT...WITH SOME
GUSTS TO 15 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TONIGHT...BUT A DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING MORE CLOUDS TO OUR AREA...AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE FAR
SOUTH OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO BRING FAIR WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY.

RH VALUES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL MAXIMIZE BETWEEN 65 AND
95 PERCENT. MINIMUM RH VALUES TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL RANGE
BETWEEN 40 AND 60 PERCENT. MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WILL RANGE BETWEEN 25 AND 45 PERCENT.

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT 15 TO 25 MPH EARLY THIS EVENING WILL
DIMINISH TO AROUND 15 MPH TOWARD DAYBREAK. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD BE AROUND 15 MPH THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...THEN DIMINISH TO
LESS THAN 15 MPH TUESDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AT 15 TO 25 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WHICH
WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY
IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...SND/NAS




000
FXUS61 KBOX 301918
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
318 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A QUIET NIGHT OF WEATHER PRIOR TO A CLIPPER-LOW SWEEPING SOUTH OF
THE REGION BRINGING A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW TO SOUTHERN-MOST
PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND. WARMER TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE END OF
THIS WEEK THEN A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM MAY APPROACH LATE THIS
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

QUIET WEATHER. SCATTERED RAIN / SNOW SHOWERS CONCLUDE WITH ONLY
REMNANT MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS REMAINING. BREEZY W-WINDS WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. COLD AIR ADVECTION IN WAKE
OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION INTO THIS EVENING.
EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DROP TO AROUND THE LOW-30S...NEAR-
SEASONABLE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...

DEPENDENCE OF THE FORECAST UPON THE TRACK OF THE CLIPPER DISTURBANCE
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE BROADER CYCLONIC FLOW AND ITS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE REFLECTION IN AREAS OF FAVORABLE BAROCLINICITY / THERMAL
PACKING. THE CLOSER TO THE S NEW ENGLAND SHORELINE...THE GREATER THE
IMPACT. WENT WITH A CONSENSUS BLEND OF THE FORECAST GUIDANCE NOTING
THE EC / NAM ALONG THE N-END OF THE ENVELOP WITH ALL OTHER FORECAST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A SWING AND A MISS.

FORECAST GUIDANCE CONSENSUS HAS CLIPPER LOW TRACK OFF THE DELMARVA
COAST ALONG A W-E ZONAL-FLOW. OVER-RUNNING PRECIPITATION APPEARS
LARGELY ABSENT THOUGH W-E SETUP...DISCREET OUTCOMES APPARENT WITH
FRONTOGENETICAL BANDING ALONG THE PARENT WARM FRONT TO THE CLIPPER
LOW AROUND H7-8. IN ADDITION BETTER MOISTURE AND QG-FORCING MAINTAIN
S OF NEW ENGLAND PARENT WITH THE LOW WITH CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE.

SO FEEL THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE. ANY ACTIVITY
WILL BE LIGHT MOSTLY S OF THE MASS-PIKE. SUBSEQUENTLY WITH DRY LOW-
LEVELS AT ONSET FEEL WETBULBING / DYNAMIC COOLING OF LOW-LEVELS WILL
BE MINIMAL AGAINST HIGHS THAT ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE LOW- TO
MID-40S WITH DAYTIME HEATING PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF THE STORM WHICH
IS EXPECTED TO BE LATE. YET PROCEEDING INTO A EVENING ALONG WITH AN
ISALLOBARIC RESPONSE OF WINDS THAT WILL FUNNEL OUT OF THE N ABSENT
OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE...FEEL PRECIP-TYPE WILL VARY BETWEEN RAIN /
SNOW FROM WHICH AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION.
IF ANY...A TRACE AT MOST ON LINGERING SNOWPACK / ELEVATED SURFACES.

GREATEST IMPACTS WILL BE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S-COAST AND ISLANDS.
MAJORITY OF THE IMPACTS WILL BE DUE TO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WITH
SNOW...IF ANYTHING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* MODERATING MORE SPRING-LIKE TEMPS LATE THIS WEEK
* INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND

DISCUSSION...

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE BROAD SCALE WITH SOME EXPECTED
DETAIL DIFFERENCES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS WITH ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE CENTERS/COLD FRONTS MOVING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
THIS WILL BRING SEVERAL CHANCES OF RAIN TO THE REGION THROUGHOUT
THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BRINGING
DRY WEATHER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO QUEBEC. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL BUT ONLY BY A FEW DEGREES. EXCELLENT MIXING...
COUPLED WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL LIKELY RESULT IN GUSTY
WINDS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...TWO SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND THEIR
ATTENDANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES...BRINGING A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. AT THIS POINT...LOOKING AT MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS WITH
AROUND AN INCH OF QPF. THERE ARE STILL DETAIL DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS FOR THIS PERIOD SO QPF AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE.

WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE FRIDAY WHEN THEY WILL ACTUALLY
CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL...POSSIBLY GIVING US OUR FIRST 60+ DEGREE DAY OF
THE SPRING. TEMPERATURES FALL SATURDAY...DROPPING BACK BELOW NORMAL
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT TRAILS THE LAST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES
WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY APRIL.

MONDAY...ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GREAT
LAKES...PUSHING HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE. TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO
MODERATE ONCE AGAIN...CREEPING BACK TOWARDS NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

18Z UPDATE...

LINGERING SCT -SHRA/-SHSN CONCLUDING TOWARDS 21Z ALONG WITH LOW-
END VFR / MVFR CIGS ACROSS E-TERMINALS. COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS
THE TERMINALS LATE INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEHIND WHICH WINDS BACK
W/NW. GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...

STORM SWEEPING S OF NEW ENGLAND. LOWEST CONDITIONS ACROSS S-MOST
NEW ENGLAND WITH POTENTIAL IFR WITH -SN. OTHERWISE LOW-END VFR /
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS MOSTLY S OF THE CT-RI-MA BORDER. N/NW WINDS
INCREASING LATE WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS FOR COASTAL TERMINALS.

KBOS TAF...-SHRA CLEARING OUT BY 21Z. SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT
THEREAFTER. GUSTY W-WINDS OVERNIGHT.

KBDL TAF...QUIET WEATHER PERIOD. LOW-END VFR LIFTING TOWARDS
EVENING.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY IN RAIN SHOWERS. IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY NIGHT IN FOG.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

COLD FRONT SWEEPING THE WATERS DURING THE EVENING HRS. SW-WINDS
BACKING NW DURING WHICH TIME GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
SEAS ABOVE 5 FEET MAINLY ON THE OUTER WATERS...THOUGH COULD BE
SOME LINGERING ISSUES FOR RI / BI SOUND.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...

STORM SYSTEM SWEEPS S OF NEW ENGLAND. N/NW FLOW...WHICH WILL
INCREASE TOWARDS THE LATER HALF OF THE PERIOD. WILL BE A LULL IN
WIND AND WAVE ACTION DURING WHICH TIME A RAIN / SNOW MIX WILL BE
AN ISSUE MOSTLY FOR THE S-WATERS WITH POTENTIAL VISIBILITY IMPACT.
THEN WAVES INCREASE IN EXCESS OF 5-FEET WITH ENHANCING N/NW-FLOW.

SMALL-CRAFT HEADLINES CONTINUE FOR THE OUTER WATERS THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD...WHILE INNER-WATERS EXPIRE OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE WATERS. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST DIMINISHING
THROUGH THE PERIOD. OCCASIONAL 25 KT GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE
OUTER WATERS AT TIMES.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...SEAS INCREASE AS TWO SEPARATE LOW
PRESSURE CENTERS AND THEIR COLD FRONTS APPROACH THE WATERS.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 15 TO 20 KTS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY
MORNING. GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY FOR BOTH WINDS AND SEAS AT LEAST ON THE
OUTER WATERS...IF NOT ON THE INTERIOR BAYS AND SOUNDS AT TIMES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ231-232.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ233-234-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RLG/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...RLG/SIPPRELL
MARINE...RLG/SIPPRELL



000
FXUS61 KBOX 301918
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
318 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A QUIET NIGHT OF WEATHER PRIOR TO A CLIPPER-LOW SWEEPING SOUTH OF
THE REGION BRINGING A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW TO SOUTHERN-MOST
PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND. WARMER TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE END OF
THIS WEEK THEN A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM MAY APPROACH LATE THIS
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

QUIET WEATHER. SCATTERED RAIN / SNOW SHOWERS CONCLUDE WITH ONLY
REMNANT MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS REMAINING. BREEZY W-WINDS WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. COLD AIR ADVECTION IN WAKE
OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION INTO THIS EVENING.
EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DROP TO AROUND THE LOW-30S...NEAR-
SEASONABLE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...

DEPENDENCE OF THE FORECAST UPON THE TRACK OF THE CLIPPER DISTURBANCE
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE BROADER CYCLONIC FLOW AND ITS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE REFLECTION IN AREAS OF FAVORABLE BAROCLINICITY / THERMAL
PACKING. THE CLOSER TO THE S NEW ENGLAND SHORELINE...THE GREATER THE
IMPACT. WENT WITH A CONSENSUS BLEND OF THE FORECAST GUIDANCE NOTING
THE EC / NAM ALONG THE N-END OF THE ENVELOP WITH ALL OTHER FORECAST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A SWING AND A MISS.

FORECAST GUIDANCE CONSENSUS HAS CLIPPER LOW TRACK OFF THE DELMARVA
COAST ALONG A W-E ZONAL-FLOW. OVER-RUNNING PRECIPITATION APPEARS
LARGELY ABSENT THOUGH W-E SETUP...DISCREET OUTCOMES APPARENT WITH
FRONTOGENETICAL BANDING ALONG THE PARENT WARM FRONT TO THE CLIPPER
LOW AROUND H7-8. IN ADDITION BETTER MOISTURE AND QG-FORCING MAINTAIN
S OF NEW ENGLAND PARENT WITH THE LOW WITH CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE.

SO FEEL THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE. ANY ACTIVITY
WILL BE LIGHT MOSTLY S OF THE MASS-PIKE. SUBSEQUENTLY WITH DRY LOW-
LEVELS AT ONSET FEEL WETBULBING / DYNAMIC COOLING OF LOW-LEVELS WILL
BE MINIMAL AGAINST HIGHS THAT ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE LOW- TO
MID-40S WITH DAYTIME HEATING PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF THE STORM WHICH
IS EXPECTED TO BE LATE. YET PROCEEDING INTO A EVENING ALONG WITH AN
ISALLOBARIC RESPONSE OF WINDS THAT WILL FUNNEL OUT OF THE N ABSENT
OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE...FEEL PRECIP-TYPE WILL VARY BETWEEN RAIN /
SNOW FROM WHICH AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION.
IF ANY...A TRACE AT MOST ON LINGERING SNOWPACK / ELEVATED SURFACES.

GREATEST IMPACTS WILL BE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S-COAST AND ISLANDS.
MAJORITY OF THE IMPACTS WILL BE DUE TO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WITH
SNOW...IF ANYTHING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* MODERATING MORE SPRING-LIKE TEMPS LATE THIS WEEK
* INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND

DISCUSSION...

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE BROAD SCALE WITH SOME EXPECTED
DETAIL DIFFERENCES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS WITH ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE CENTERS/COLD FRONTS MOVING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
THIS WILL BRING SEVERAL CHANCES OF RAIN TO THE REGION THROUGHOUT
THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BRINGING
DRY WEATHER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO QUEBEC. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL BUT ONLY BY A FEW DEGREES. EXCELLENT MIXING...
COUPLED WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL LIKELY RESULT IN GUSTY
WINDS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...TWO SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND THEIR
ATTENDANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES...BRINGING A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. AT THIS POINT...LOOKING AT MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS WITH
AROUND AN INCH OF QPF. THERE ARE STILL DETAIL DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS FOR THIS PERIOD SO QPF AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE.

WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE FRIDAY WHEN THEY WILL ACTUALLY
CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL...POSSIBLY GIVING US OUR FIRST 60+ DEGREE DAY OF
THE SPRING. TEMPERATURES FALL SATURDAY...DROPPING BACK BELOW NORMAL
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT TRAILS THE LAST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES
WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY APRIL.

MONDAY...ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GREAT
LAKES...PUSHING HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE. TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO
MODERATE ONCE AGAIN...CREEPING BACK TOWARDS NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

18Z UPDATE...

LINGERING SCT -SHRA/-SHSN CONCLUDING TOWARDS 21Z ALONG WITH LOW-
END VFR / MVFR CIGS ACROSS E-TERMINALS. COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS
THE TERMINALS LATE INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEHIND WHICH WINDS BACK
W/NW. GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...

STORM SWEEPING S OF NEW ENGLAND. LOWEST CONDITIONS ACROSS S-MOST
NEW ENGLAND WITH POTENTIAL IFR WITH -SN. OTHERWISE LOW-END VFR /
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS MOSTLY S OF THE CT-RI-MA BORDER. N/NW WINDS
INCREASING LATE WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS FOR COASTAL TERMINALS.

KBOS TAF...-SHRA CLEARING OUT BY 21Z. SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT
THEREAFTER. GUSTY W-WINDS OVERNIGHT.

KBDL TAF...QUIET WEATHER PERIOD. LOW-END VFR LIFTING TOWARDS
EVENING.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY IN RAIN SHOWERS. IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY NIGHT IN FOG.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

COLD FRONT SWEEPING THE WATERS DURING THE EVENING HRS. SW-WINDS
BACKING NW DURING WHICH TIME GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
SEAS ABOVE 5 FEET MAINLY ON THE OUTER WATERS...THOUGH COULD BE
SOME LINGERING ISSUES FOR RI / BI SOUND.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...

STORM SYSTEM SWEEPS S OF NEW ENGLAND. N/NW FLOW...WHICH WILL
INCREASE TOWARDS THE LATER HALF OF THE PERIOD. WILL BE A LULL IN
WIND AND WAVE ACTION DURING WHICH TIME A RAIN / SNOW MIX WILL BE
AN ISSUE MOSTLY FOR THE S-WATERS WITH POTENTIAL VISIBILITY IMPACT.
THEN WAVES INCREASE IN EXCESS OF 5-FEET WITH ENHANCING N/NW-FLOW.

SMALL-CRAFT HEADLINES CONTINUE FOR THE OUTER WATERS THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD...WHILE INNER-WATERS EXPIRE OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE WATERS. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST DIMINISHING
THROUGH THE PERIOD. OCCASIONAL 25 KT GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE
OUTER WATERS AT TIMES.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...SEAS INCREASE AS TWO SEPARATE LOW
PRESSURE CENTERS AND THEIR COLD FRONTS APPROACH THE WATERS.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 15 TO 20 KTS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY
MORNING. GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY FOR BOTH WINDS AND SEAS AT LEAST ON THE
OUTER WATERS...IF NOT ON THE INTERIOR BAYS AND SOUNDS AT TIMES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ231-232.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ233-234-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RLG/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...RLG/SIPPRELL
MARINE...RLG/SIPPRELL




000
FXUS61 KOKX 301755
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
155 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS LATE TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A QUICK MOVING LOW
ON TUE. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THEN...A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE AREA LATE
IN THE WEEK...INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FORECAST ON TRACK WITH JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO REFLECT
LATEST OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE...MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT PRODUCING A BATCH OF RADAR RETURNS ACROSS
UPSTATE NY INTO ERN PA THAT WILL TRAVERSE THE CWA DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. 00Z KOKX SOUNDING WAS DRY WITH ONLY 0.12
PW. LLVL MOISTURE CONFINED TO ERN LI AND CT WHERE FLOW OFF THE
OCEAN HAS PROVIDED SOME MOISTENING. PCPN COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO
BE SCT AND LGT. THE COLUMN APPEARS COLD ENOUGH BASED ON THE 00Z
MODELS TO ALLOW FOR SNOW SHWRS POSSIBLE MIXED WITH RAIN THRU
12Z...THEN TRANSITIONING TO MAINLY RAIN SHWRS THRU THE MRNG HRS AS
BOTH THE BL AND MID LVLS WARM. PCPN CHCS MAINLY TIL 16Z...THEN
THEY DROP QUICKLY.

THE CDFNT OVER OH AT 7Z REACHES ORANGE COUNTY PER THE 12Z NAM
RIGHT ABOUT 18Z. IT THEN SWEEPS ACROSS THE CWA AND CLEARS THE AREA
BY 00Z. ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE COULD PRODUCE A FEW HRS OF PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES BEFORE DARK. MOSTLY CLR SKIES OVERNIGHT BUT THE DATA
SUGGESTS WIND WILL KEEPS THINGS SLIGHTLY STIRRED UP...THEREBY
KEEPING TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT. AS A RESULT...LOWS CLOSE TO
GUIDANCE WERE USED WITH MINS ABOUT 5-7 DEGREES BLW CLIMO. IF WINDS
DECOUPLE...AT LEAST 5 DEGREES WILL NEED TO BE CHOPPED OFF THE FCST
ACROSS THE OUTLYING AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
SYS CURRENTLY OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL RACE TOWARDS THE
AREA WITH THE SFC LOW REACHING THE NYC LONGITUDE APPROXIMATELY 00Z
WED. THE 00Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF ARE ALL IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SPEED...BUT THE MODELS DIFFER WRT THE EXACT N-S TRACK. THE
ECMWF WAS THE FURTHEST S...WITH THE NAM AND GFS CLUSTERED CLOSELY
WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLES ACROSS CNTRL NJ. THE SREF MEAN WAS SLIGHLY
FURTHER N. POPS FOR INCREASED TO JUST BLW LIKELY BY LATE AFTN.
THIS TRACK COMBINED WITH THE THERMAL PROFILES ALOFT WOULD SUPPORT
A COLD ENOUGH COLUMN ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA FOR SNOW. WITH THE
BL INITIALLY WARM...LGT RAIN COULD MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO SNOW AS
STEADIER/HEAVIER PCPN MOVES IN. SRN AREAS...PARTICULARLY FROM WRN
NJ ZONES THRU THE CITY AND ONTO LI...TEMPS ALOFT MAY WARM FOR A
CHANGE BACK TO RAIN...OR IT MAY EVEN REMAIN ALL RAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. LATEST 00Z
FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATING THAT ANY RAIN OR SNOW...WILL CHANGE TO
ALL SNOW SHORTLY AFTER 00Z ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AS
COLD AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. QPF TOTALS ARE GENERALLY ON THE LOW
END WITH LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. ANY PRECIPITATION WILL
TAPER OFF LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY THEN MOVES OFFSHORE
THURSDAY...WITH RETURN FLOW AND MOIST AIR QUICKLY SPREADING NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
40S.

NEXT LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE LOCAL AREA LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...WITH RAIN CHANCES CONTINUING STRAIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S AND LOWS IN
THE LOW TO MID 40S. TEMPERATURES FALL BACK TO NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK HIGH
PRES BUILDS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...AND THEN WEAK LOW PRES IMPACTS
THE TERMINALS LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

W-SW WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NW THROUGH 20Z AS A COLD FRONT WORKS
ITS WAY ACROSS THE TERMINALS. WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KT WITH
20-25 KT GUSTS AFTER ITS PASSAGE...AND THEN WINDS DIMINISH TO 8-12
KT THIS EVENING AND GUSTS END.

AFTER MIDNIGHT...WEST WINDS WILL AVERAGE 5-8 KT...AND THEN
INCREASE BY A FEW KT LATE TUESDAY MORNING.

BKN DECK AROUND 4000 FT THIS AFTERNOON WILL SCATTER OUT THIS
EVENING...AND THEN SKC CONDS EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. MID-
DECK INCREASES TUESDAY MORNING AS LOW PRES APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST.

VFR THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY.

FOR THE 30 HR TAFS...KJFK/KEWR/KSWF...MVFR CONDS IN -RA FOR
KJFK/KEWR AND -SN FOR KSWF AFT 21Z TUESDAY.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS 270-290 MAG WITH PEAK GUSTS 25-27 KT
THROUGH 23Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS 280-300 MAG WITH PEAK GUSTS AROUND 25
KT THROUGH 23Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS 260-280 MAG WITH PEAK GUSTS AROUND 25
KT THROUGH 23Z.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: W-NW WINDS WITH PEAK GUSTS UP TO 25 KT
THROUGH 23Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: W-NW WINDS WITH PEAK GUSTS UP TO 25 KT
THROUGH 23Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: W-NW WINDS WITH PEAK GUSTS AROUND 25 KT
THROUGH 00Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY AFTERNOON...MVFR IN DEVELOPING -RA/-SN.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...CONDS IMPROVING TO VFR BY MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT.
.WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...VFR.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...MVFR IN -RA SHOWERS.
.SATURDAY...MVFR IN -RA SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SW WIND INCREASE TODAY TO SCA LVLS...THEN WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW
THIS AFTN INTO THE EVE AS A CDFNT TRACKS THRU. WINDS DIMINISH THIS
EVE...BUT SEAS REMAIN ABV SCA LVLS ON THE OCEAN. SCA COND MAY
DEVELOP AGAIN ON ALL WATERS TUE AS LOW PRES TRACKS QUICKLY INTO
THE REGION. SEAS MAY BRIEFLY TOUGH 5 FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT SUB-SMALL CRAFT LEVEL CONDITIONS THROUGH
THURSDAY AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS OVER THE REGION. WIND
GUSTS AND WAVES INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE OCEAN WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TRACE AMTS TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT ARE EXPECTED
TODAY. A FEW TENTHS OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT IS POSSIBLE TUE AND TUE
NGT. THEREAFTER...NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS
FORECAST.

RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW BANK FULL...BUT
INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT WILL CONTINUE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT INTO
THIS WEEKEND. ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY
OCCUR...COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING
IS UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS
SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-
     335-338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/JMC
NEAR TERM...BC/JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...BC/JMC
HYDROLOGY...BC/JMC



000
FXUS61 KOKX 301755
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
155 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS LATE TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A QUICK MOVING LOW
ON TUE. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THEN...A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE AREA LATE
IN THE WEEK...INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FORECAST ON TRACK WITH JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO REFLECT
LATEST OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE...MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT PRODUCING A BATCH OF RADAR RETURNS ACROSS
UPSTATE NY INTO ERN PA THAT WILL TRAVERSE THE CWA DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. 00Z KOKX SOUNDING WAS DRY WITH ONLY 0.12
PW. LLVL MOISTURE CONFINED TO ERN LI AND CT WHERE FLOW OFF THE
OCEAN HAS PROVIDED SOME MOISTENING. PCPN COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO
BE SCT AND LGT. THE COLUMN APPEARS COLD ENOUGH BASED ON THE 00Z
MODELS TO ALLOW FOR SNOW SHWRS POSSIBLE MIXED WITH RAIN THRU
12Z...THEN TRANSITIONING TO MAINLY RAIN SHWRS THRU THE MRNG HRS AS
BOTH THE BL AND MID LVLS WARM. PCPN CHCS MAINLY TIL 16Z...THEN
THEY DROP QUICKLY.

THE CDFNT OVER OH AT 7Z REACHES ORANGE COUNTY PER THE 12Z NAM
RIGHT ABOUT 18Z. IT THEN SWEEPS ACROSS THE CWA AND CLEARS THE AREA
BY 00Z. ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE COULD PRODUCE A FEW HRS OF PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES BEFORE DARK. MOSTLY CLR SKIES OVERNIGHT BUT THE DATA
SUGGESTS WIND WILL KEEPS THINGS SLIGHTLY STIRRED UP...THEREBY
KEEPING TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT. AS A RESULT...LOWS CLOSE TO
GUIDANCE WERE USED WITH MINS ABOUT 5-7 DEGREES BLW CLIMO. IF WINDS
DECOUPLE...AT LEAST 5 DEGREES WILL NEED TO BE CHOPPED OFF THE FCST
ACROSS THE OUTLYING AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
SYS CURRENTLY OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL RACE TOWARDS THE
AREA WITH THE SFC LOW REACHING THE NYC LONGITUDE APPROXIMATELY 00Z
WED. THE 00Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF ARE ALL IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SPEED...BUT THE MODELS DIFFER WRT THE EXACT N-S TRACK. THE
ECMWF WAS THE FURTHEST S...WITH THE NAM AND GFS CLUSTERED CLOSELY
WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLES ACROSS CNTRL NJ. THE SREF MEAN WAS SLIGHLY
FURTHER N. POPS FOR INCREASED TO JUST BLW LIKELY BY LATE AFTN.
THIS TRACK COMBINED WITH THE THERMAL PROFILES ALOFT WOULD SUPPORT
A COLD ENOUGH COLUMN ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA FOR SNOW. WITH THE
BL INITIALLY WARM...LGT RAIN COULD MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO SNOW AS
STEADIER/HEAVIER PCPN MOVES IN. SRN AREAS...PARTICULARLY FROM WRN
NJ ZONES THRU THE CITY AND ONTO LI...TEMPS ALOFT MAY WARM FOR A
CHANGE BACK TO RAIN...OR IT MAY EVEN REMAIN ALL RAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. LATEST 00Z
FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATING THAT ANY RAIN OR SNOW...WILL CHANGE TO
ALL SNOW SHORTLY AFTER 00Z ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AS
COLD AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. QPF TOTALS ARE GENERALLY ON THE LOW
END WITH LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. ANY PRECIPITATION WILL
TAPER OFF LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY THEN MOVES OFFSHORE
THURSDAY...WITH RETURN FLOW AND MOIST AIR QUICKLY SPREADING NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
40S.

NEXT LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE LOCAL AREA LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...WITH RAIN CHANCES CONTINUING STRAIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S AND LOWS IN
THE LOW TO MID 40S. TEMPERATURES FALL BACK TO NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK HIGH
PRES BUILDS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...AND THEN WEAK LOW PRES IMPACTS
THE TERMINALS LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

W-SW WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NW THROUGH 20Z AS A COLD FRONT WORKS
ITS WAY ACROSS THE TERMINALS. WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KT WITH
20-25 KT GUSTS AFTER ITS PASSAGE...AND THEN WINDS DIMINISH TO 8-12
KT THIS EVENING AND GUSTS END.

AFTER MIDNIGHT...WEST WINDS WILL AVERAGE 5-8 KT...AND THEN
INCREASE BY A FEW KT LATE TUESDAY MORNING.

BKN DECK AROUND 4000 FT THIS AFTERNOON WILL SCATTER OUT THIS
EVENING...AND THEN SKC CONDS EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. MID-
DECK INCREASES TUESDAY MORNING AS LOW PRES APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST.

VFR THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY.

FOR THE 30 HR TAFS...KJFK/KEWR/KSWF...MVFR CONDS IN -RA FOR
KJFK/KEWR AND -SN FOR KSWF AFT 21Z TUESDAY.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS 270-290 MAG WITH PEAK GUSTS 25-27 KT
THROUGH 23Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS 280-300 MAG WITH PEAK GUSTS AROUND 25
KT THROUGH 23Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS 260-280 MAG WITH PEAK GUSTS AROUND 25
KT THROUGH 23Z.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: W-NW WINDS WITH PEAK GUSTS UP TO 25 KT
THROUGH 23Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: W-NW WINDS WITH PEAK GUSTS UP TO 25 KT
THROUGH 23Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: W-NW WINDS WITH PEAK GUSTS AROUND 25 KT
THROUGH 00Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY AFTERNOON...MVFR IN DEVELOPING -RA/-SN.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...CONDS IMPROVING TO VFR BY MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT.
.WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...VFR.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...MVFR IN -RA SHOWERS.
.SATURDAY...MVFR IN -RA SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SW WIND INCREASE TODAY TO SCA LVLS...THEN WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW
THIS AFTN INTO THE EVE AS A CDFNT TRACKS THRU. WINDS DIMINISH THIS
EVE...BUT SEAS REMAIN ABV SCA LVLS ON THE OCEAN. SCA COND MAY
DEVELOP AGAIN ON ALL WATERS TUE AS LOW PRES TRACKS QUICKLY INTO
THE REGION. SEAS MAY BRIEFLY TOUGH 5 FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT SUB-SMALL CRAFT LEVEL CONDITIONS THROUGH
THURSDAY AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS OVER THE REGION. WIND
GUSTS AND WAVES INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE OCEAN WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TRACE AMTS TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT ARE EXPECTED
TODAY. A FEW TENTHS OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT IS POSSIBLE TUE AND TUE
NGT. THEREAFTER...NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS
FORECAST.

RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW BANK FULL...BUT
INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT WILL CONTINUE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT INTO
THIS WEEKEND. ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY
OCCUR...COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING
IS UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS
SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-
     335-338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/JMC
NEAR TERM...BC/JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...BC/JMC
HYDROLOGY...BC/JMC




000
FXUS61 KOKX 301755
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
155 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS LATE TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A QUICK MOVING LOW
ON TUE. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THEN...A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE AREA LATE
IN THE WEEK...INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FORECAST ON TRACK WITH JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO REFLECT
LATEST OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE...MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT PRODUCING A BATCH OF RADAR RETURNS ACROSS
UPSTATE NY INTO ERN PA THAT WILL TRAVERSE THE CWA DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. 00Z KOKX SOUNDING WAS DRY WITH ONLY 0.12
PW. LLVL MOISTURE CONFINED TO ERN LI AND CT WHERE FLOW OFF THE
OCEAN HAS PROVIDED SOME MOISTENING. PCPN COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO
BE SCT AND LGT. THE COLUMN APPEARS COLD ENOUGH BASED ON THE 00Z
MODELS TO ALLOW FOR SNOW SHWRS POSSIBLE MIXED WITH RAIN THRU
12Z...THEN TRANSITIONING TO MAINLY RAIN SHWRS THRU THE MRNG HRS AS
BOTH THE BL AND MID LVLS WARM. PCPN CHCS MAINLY TIL 16Z...THEN
THEY DROP QUICKLY.

THE CDFNT OVER OH AT 7Z REACHES ORANGE COUNTY PER THE 12Z NAM
RIGHT ABOUT 18Z. IT THEN SWEEPS ACROSS THE CWA AND CLEARS THE AREA
BY 00Z. ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE COULD PRODUCE A FEW HRS OF PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES BEFORE DARK. MOSTLY CLR SKIES OVERNIGHT BUT THE DATA
SUGGESTS WIND WILL KEEPS THINGS SLIGHTLY STIRRED UP...THEREBY
KEEPING TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT. AS A RESULT...LOWS CLOSE TO
GUIDANCE WERE USED WITH MINS ABOUT 5-7 DEGREES BLW CLIMO. IF WINDS
DECOUPLE...AT LEAST 5 DEGREES WILL NEED TO BE CHOPPED OFF THE FCST
ACROSS THE OUTLYING AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
SYS CURRENTLY OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL RACE TOWARDS THE
AREA WITH THE SFC LOW REACHING THE NYC LONGITUDE APPROXIMATELY 00Z
WED. THE 00Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF ARE ALL IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SPEED...BUT THE MODELS DIFFER WRT THE EXACT N-S TRACK. THE
ECMWF WAS THE FURTHEST S...WITH THE NAM AND GFS CLUSTERED CLOSELY
WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLES ACROSS CNTRL NJ. THE SREF MEAN WAS SLIGHLY
FURTHER N. POPS FOR INCREASED TO JUST BLW LIKELY BY LATE AFTN.
THIS TRACK COMBINED WITH THE THERMAL PROFILES ALOFT WOULD SUPPORT
A COLD ENOUGH COLUMN ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA FOR SNOW. WITH THE
BL INITIALLY WARM...LGT RAIN COULD MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO SNOW AS
STEADIER/HEAVIER PCPN MOVES IN. SRN AREAS...PARTICULARLY FROM WRN
NJ ZONES THRU THE CITY AND ONTO LI...TEMPS ALOFT MAY WARM FOR A
CHANGE BACK TO RAIN...OR IT MAY EVEN REMAIN ALL RAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. LATEST 00Z
FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATING THAT ANY RAIN OR SNOW...WILL CHANGE TO
ALL SNOW SHORTLY AFTER 00Z ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AS
COLD AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. QPF TOTALS ARE GENERALLY ON THE LOW
END WITH LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. ANY PRECIPITATION WILL
TAPER OFF LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY THEN MOVES OFFSHORE
THURSDAY...WITH RETURN FLOW AND MOIST AIR QUICKLY SPREADING NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
40S.

NEXT LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE LOCAL AREA LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...WITH RAIN CHANCES CONTINUING STRAIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S AND LOWS IN
THE LOW TO MID 40S. TEMPERATURES FALL BACK TO NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK HIGH
PRES BUILDS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...AND THEN WEAK LOW PRES IMPACTS
THE TERMINALS LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

W-SW WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NW THROUGH 20Z AS A COLD FRONT WORKS
ITS WAY ACROSS THE TERMINALS. WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KT WITH
20-25 KT GUSTS AFTER ITS PASSAGE...AND THEN WINDS DIMINISH TO 8-12
KT THIS EVENING AND GUSTS END.

AFTER MIDNIGHT...WEST WINDS WILL AVERAGE 5-8 KT...AND THEN
INCREASE BY A FEW KT LATE TUESDAY MORNING.

BKN DECK AROUND 4000 FT THIS AFTERNOON WILL SCATTER OUT THIS
EVENING...AND THEN SKC CONDS EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. MID-
DECK INCREASES TUESDAY MORNING AS LOW PRES APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST.

VFR THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY.

FOR THE 30 HR TAFS...KJFK/KEWR/KSWF...MVFR CONDS IN -RA FOR
KJFK/KEWR AND -SN FOR KSWF AFT 21Z TUESDAY.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS 270-290 MAG WITH PEAK GUSTS 25-27 KT
THROUGH 23Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS 280-300 MAG WITH PEAK GUSTS AROUND 25
KT THROUGH 23Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS 260-280 MAG WITH PEAK GUSTS AROUND 25
KT THROUGH 23Z.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: W-NW WINDS WITH PEAK GUSTS UP TO 25 KT
THROUGH 23Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: W-NW WINDS WITH PEAK GUSTS UP TO 25 KT
THROUGH 23Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: W-NW WINDS WITH PEAK GUSTS AROUND 25 KT
THROUGH 00Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY AFTERNOON...MVFR IN DEVELOPING -RA/-SN.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...CONDS IMPROVING TO VFR BY MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT.
.WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...VFR.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...MVFR IN -RA SHOWERS.
.SATURDAY...MVFR IN -RA SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SW WIND INCREASE TODAY TO SCA LVLS...THEN WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW
THIS AFTN INTO THE EVE AS A CDFNT TRACKS THRU. WINDS DIMINISH THIS
EVE...BUT SEAS REMAIN ABV SCA LVLS ON THE OCEAN. SCA COND MAY
DEVELOP AGAIN ON ALL WATERS TUE AS LOW PRES TRACKS QUICKLY INTO
THE REGION. SEAS MAY BRIEFLY TOUGH 5 FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT SUB-SMALL CRAFT LEVEL CONDITIONS THROUGH
THURSDAY AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS OVER THE REGION. WIND
GUSTS AND WAVES INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE OCEAN WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TRACE AMTS TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT ARE EXPECTED
TODAY. A FEW TENTHS OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT IS POSSIBLE TUE AND TUE
NGT. THEREAFTER...NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS
FORECAST.

RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW BANK FULL...BUT
INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT WILL CONTINUE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT INTO
THIS WEEKEND. ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY
OCCUR...COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING
IS UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS
SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-
     335-338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/JMC
NEAR TERM...BC/JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...BC/JMC
HYDROLOGY...BC/JMC




000
FXUS61 KOKX 301755
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
155 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS LATE TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A QUICK MOVING LOW
ON TUE. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THEN...A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE AREA LATE
IN THE WEEK...INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FORECAST ON TRACK WITH JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO REFLECT
LATEST OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE...MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT PRODUCING A BATCH OF RADAR RETURNS ACROSS
UPSTATE NY INTO ERN PA THAT WILL TRAVERSE THE CWA DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. 00Z KOKX SOUNDING WAS DRY WITH ONLY 0.12
PW. LLVL MOISTURE CONFINED TO ERN LI AND CT WHERE FLOW OFF THE
OCEAN HAS PROVIDED SOME MOISTENING. PCPN COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO
BE SCT AND LGT. THE COLUMN APPEARS COLD ENOUGH BASED ON THE 00Z
MODELS TO ALLOW FOR SNOW SHWRS POSSIBLE MIXED WITH RAIN THRU
12Z...THEN TRANSITIONING TO MAINLY RAIN SHWRS THRU THE MRNG HRS AS
BOTH THE BL AND MID LVLS WARM. PCPN CHCS MAINLY TIL 16Z...THEN
THEY DROP QUICKLY.

THE CDFNT OVER OH AT 7Z REACHES ORANGE COUNTY PER THE 12Z NAM
RIGHT ABOUT 18Z. IT THEN SWEEPS ACROSS THE CWA AND CLEARS THE AREA
BY 00Z. ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE COULD PRODUCE A FEW HRS OF PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES BEFORE DARK. MOSTLY CLR SKIES OVERNIGHT BUT THE DATA
SUGGESTS WIND WILL KEEPS THINGS SLIGHTLY STIRRED UP...THEREBY
KEEPING TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT. AS A RESULT...LOWS CLOSE TO
GUIDANCE WERE USED WITH MINS ABOUT 5-7 DEGREES BLW CLIMO. IF WINDS
DECOUPLE...AT LEAST 5 DEGREES WILL NEED TO BE CHOPPED OFF THE FCST
ACROSS THE OUTLYING AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
SYS CURRENTLY OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL RACE TOWARDS THE
AREA WITH THE SFC LOW REACHING THE NYC LONGITUDE APPROXIMATELY 00Z
WED. THE 00Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF ARE ALL IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SPEED...BUT THE MODELS DIFFER WRT THE EXACT N-S TRACK. THE
ECMWF WAS THE FURTHEST S...WITH THE NAM AND GFS CLUSTERED CLOSELY
WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLES ACROSS CNTRL NJ. THE SREF MEAN WAS SLIGHLY
FURTHER N. POPS FOR INCREASED TO JUST BLW LIKELY BY LATE AFTN.
THIS TRACK COMBINED WITH THE THERMAL PROFILES ALOFT WOULD SUPPORT
A COLD ENOUGH COLUMN ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA FOR SNOW. WITH THE
BL INITIALLY WARM...LGT RAIN COULD MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO SNOW AS
STEADIER/HEAVIER PCPN MOVES IN. SRN AREAS...PARTICULARLY FROM WRN
NJ ZONES THRU THE CITY AND ONTO LI...TEMPS ALOFT MAY WARM FOR A
CHANGE BACK TO RAIN...OR IT MAY EVEN REMAIN ALL RAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. LATEST 00Z
FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATING THAT ANY RAIN OR SNOW...WILL CHANGE TO
ALL SNOW SHORTLY AFTER 00Z ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AS
COLD AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. QPF TOTALS ARE GENERALLY ON THE LOW
END WITH LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. ANY PRECIPITATION WILL
TAPER OFF LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY THEN MOVES OFFSHORE
THURSDAY...WITH RETURN FLOW AND MOIST AIR QUICKLY SPREADING NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
40S.

NEXT LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE LOCAL AREA LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...WITH RAIN CHANCES CONTINUING STRAIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S AND LOWS IN
THE LOW TO MID 40S. TEMPERATURES FALL BACK TO NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK HIGH
PRES BUILDS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...AND THEN WEAK LOW PRES IMPACTS
THE TERMINALS LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

W-SW WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NW THROUGH 20Z AS A COLD FRONT WORKS
ITS WAY ACROSS THE TERMINALS. WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KT WITH
20-25 KT GUSTS AFTER ITS PASSAGE...AND THEN WINDS DIMINISH TO 8-12
KT THIS EVENING AND GUSTS END.

AFTER MIDNIGHT...WEST WINDS WILL AVERAGE 5-8 KT...AND THEN
INCREASE BY A FEW KT LATE TUESDAY MORNING.

BKN DECK AROUND 4000 FT THIS AFTERNOON WILL SCATTER OUT THIS
EVENING...AND THEN SKC CONDS EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. MID-
DECK INCREASES TUESDAY MORNING AS LOW PRES APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST.

VFR THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY.

FOR THE 30 HR TAFS...KJFK/KEWR/KSWF...MVFR CONDS IN -RA FOR
KJFK/KEWR AND -SN FOR KSWF AFT 21Z TUESDAY.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS 270-290 MAG WITH PEAK GUSTS 25-27 KT
THROUGH 23Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS 280-300 MAG WITH PEAK GUSTS AROUND 25
KT THROUGH 23Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS 260-280 MAG WITH PEAK GUSTS AROUND 25
KT THROUGH 23Z.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: W-NW WINDS WITH PEAK GUSTS UP TO 25 KT
THROUGH 23Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: W-NW WINDS WITH PEAK GUSTS UP TO 25 KT
THROUGH 23Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: W-NW WINDS WITH PEAK GUSTS AROUND 25 KT
THROUGH 00Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY AFTERNOON...MVFR IN DEVELOPING -RA/-SN.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...CONDS IMPROVING TO VFR BY MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT.
.WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...VFR.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...MVFR IN -RA SHOWERS.
.SATURDAY...MVFR IN -RA SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SW WIND INCREASE TODAY TO SCA LVLS...THEN WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW
THIS AFTN INTO THE EVE AS A CDFNT TRACKS THRU. WINDS DIMINISH THIS
EVE...BUT SEAS REMAIN ABV SCA LVLS ON THE OCEAN. SCA COND MAY
DEVELOP AGAIN ON ALL WATERS TUE AS LOW PRES TRACKS QUICKLY INTO
THE REGION. SEAS MAY BRIEFLY TOUGH 5 FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT SUB-SMALL CRAFT LEVEL CONDITIONS THROUGH
THURSDAY AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS OVER THE REGION. WIND
GUSTS AND WAVES INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE OCEAN WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TRACE AMTS TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT ARE EXPECTED
TODAY. A FEW TENTHS OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT IS POSSIBLE TUE AND TUE
NGT. THEREAFTER...NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS
FORECAST.

RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW BANK FULL...BUT
INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT WILL CONTINUE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT INTO
THIS WEEKEND. ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY
OCCUR...COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING
IS UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS
SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-
     335-338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/JMC
NEAR TERM...BC/JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...BC/JMC
HYDROLOGY...BC/JMC



000
FXUS61 KALY 301742
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
142 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME GUSTY WINDS. HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TONIGHT...BUT A DISTURBANCE WILL BRING
MORE CLOUDS TO OUR AREA...AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE FAR SOUTH
OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
BRING FAIR WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1238 PM...APPROACHING COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH ROME NY
AND IS AT WESTERN EDGE OF MOHAWK VALLEY. STILL A FEW BANDS OF
LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN WITH THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA ARE IN THE 30S...BUT HAVE REACHES THE 40S ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY CT WHERE SOME SUNSHINE HAS
BROKEN OUT. FRONT SEEMS TO MOVING A LITTLE FASTER AND SHOULD BE
EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER BY 2 PM AND EAST OF OUR ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA BY 4 PM.

THIS FRONT WILL TURN THE WINDS TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION. A SECOND
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA OVER NIGHT AND TURN THE WINDS MORE
NORTHWESTERLY...AND BRING IN ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR.

LATEST UPDATE TO ADJUST CLOUDS BASED ON SATELLITE...AND POPS BASED
ON RADAR. ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS SLIGHTLY DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND
OBSERVATIONS. STILL HAVE HIGHS IN THE 30S TERRAIN TO 40S TO AROUND
50 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

WINDS STILL EXPECTED TO BE QUITE GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS IN
THE 25-35 KNOT RANGE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN RESULTING IN A CLEARING
SKY AND A GRADUAL DIMINISHING WIND (AFTER SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE
EVENING)...BUT PROBABLY NOT GO COMPLETELY CALM. NIGHT TIME LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S...EXCEPT UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

A TRAILING PIECE OF NORTHERN STREAM UPPER ENERGY TRACKS SOUTHEAST
OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND TRACKS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TUESDAY...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A PRECIPITATION
SHIELD...POSSIBLY EXTENDING JUST SOUTH OF I-90. CLOUDS WILL EXTEND
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA. WHILE ON PAPER IT LOOKS COLD
ENOUGH FOR THIS PRECIPITATION TO BE SNOW...THAT FACT THAT IT IS
NEARLY APRIL...THE AIR MASS WILL NOT BE ALL THAT COLD...AND MUCH OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL DURING THE DAY ALLOWING SOLAR INFLUENCE
THROUGH THE CLOUDS...PTYPE WILL BE A CHALLENGE. IF THE PRECIPITATION
IS LIGHT ENOUGH (WHICH WE BELIEVE WILL BE THE CASE) WE WOULD
PROBABLY BE LOOKING AT SNOW AT ELEVATIONS HIGHER THAN 1500
FEET...AND RAIN OR RAIN SNOW MIX IN THE VALLEY WITH VERY LITTLE IF
ANY ACCUMULATION. EVEN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACCUMULATIONS (IF
ANY) LOOK LIGHT BUT AGAIN WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR LATER TRENDS TO
SEE IF THERE SIGNALS RAMPING UP THE QPF (WHICH WOULD FAVOR MORE SNOW
OVER RAIN AND OF COURSE MORE ACCUMULATION). WE KEPT POPS IN THE
CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW...EVEN THOUGH SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES
HIGHER CHANCES THAN THAT TO OUR SOUTH.

PROJECT HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS (POSSIBLY
HIGHEST NORTH OF ALBANY WHERE THE CLOUDS WILL BE THE THINNEST). HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 30S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN...IF
PRECIPITATION TURNS OUT TO BE HEAVIER...THESE HIGHS WOULD HAVE TO BE
LOWERED SEVERAL DEGREES.

THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ON TUESDAY EVENING...LEAVING HIGH PRESSURE
TO BUILD BACK IN. THE SKY SHOULD CLEAR AND WITH LIGHT WIND
TEMPERATURES WILL TANK (ESPECIALLY IN ANY AREAS THAT PICK UP EVEN
FRESH COATING OF SNOW). LOWS WILL DIP BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S
ALBANY SOUTHWARD...15-20 FURTHER NORTH AND WEST.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY DECENT DAY (AT LEAST BY THIS SPRING
STANDARDS). BRIGHT SUNSHINE WILL BOLSTER TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 40S IN THE VALLEYS...MID TO UPPER 30S HIGHER TERRAIN.
THESE VALUES ARE STILL A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY REGARDING THE HANDLING OF FAST MOVING
PACIFIC SHORTWAVE ENERGY DURING THE FRI-SAT TIME PERIOD.

THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE DEAMPLIFYING AT THE START OF THE
EXTENDED ACROSS THE U.S...AS THE PERSISTENT POLAR VORTEX RELAXES AND
REORIENTS A BIT FURTHER N AND W ACROSS CANADA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
FAST MOVING PACIFIC SYSTEMS TO TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
U.S. RIDGING AHEAD OF ONE OF THESE DISTURBANCES SHOULD BRING A
PERIOD OF MILDER TEMPERATURES FOR THU-FRI...BEFORE TEMPS TREND BACK
TO BELOW NORMAL BY NEXT WEEKEND AS MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ONCE
AGAIN FALL ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

THU-SAT NT...A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL TRACK EAST FROM
THE WESTERN U.S. DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH A NORTHERN PIECE
TRACKING INTO CENTRAL CANADA...WHILE A SOUTHERN ONE TRACKS INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. FRONTAL SYSTEMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN
ONE SHOULD IMPACT OUR REGION THU...WITH A WARM FRONT
INITIALLY...THEN A COLD FRONT SOMETIME THU NT OR FRI. THIS SHOULD
BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION THU AFTN-EARLY FRI. THEN...AS
THE SOUTHERN PIECE OF ENERGY TRACKS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
EVENTUALLY THE EASTERN U.S...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP
ALONG THE COLD FRONT...AND ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO LINGER/REDEVELOP
LATER FRI AND POSSIBLY INTO SAT. DEPENDING ON HOW THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY AND TIMING OF ASSOCIATED SFC BOUNDARIES TRACK FRI-
SAT...THERE COULD BE ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR P-TYPE ISSUES WITH ANY
LINGERING PRECIP FRIDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...SOME GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT ANY SOUTHERN PIECES OF ENERGY AND WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACK FURTHER SOUTH WITH LESS IMPACTS ON OUR REGION.
SO...AT THIS TIME...GENERALLY HAVE INDICATED ONLY CHC POPS FOR
THIS TIME PERIOD...MAINLY FOR RAIN SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH SOME SNOW
COULD OCCUR FRI NT INTO SAT MORNING DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING
AND TRACK OF SYSTEMS.

SUN...A RETURN TO BELOW...TO POTENTIALLY WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IS
QUITE POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF ANY PREVIOUS SYSTEM. IT SHOULD BE
GENERALLY DRY...ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS OF SNOW OR
RAIN DEPENDING ON INSTABILITY AND OVERALL PROGRESSION OF UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY.

TEMPERATURE WISE...HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND
50S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. HIGHS FRIDAY
GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH UPPER 40S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TEENS TO THE 20S. HIGHS SUNDAY IN
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES INTO THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD...BUT MOSTLY VFR CIGS EXPECTED. THE BEST CAHNCE FOR MVFR
WILL BE AT KPSF WHERE SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AND LOWER CIGS
ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING...WITH CIGS STAYING DOWN OVERNIGHT. THE
OTHER TAF SITES MIGHT SEE A STRAY SHOWER BUT CIG/VSBY SHOULD
REMAIN VFR. TUESDAY MORNING EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH A
THICKENING AND LOWERING MID CLOUD DECK BY NOON.

WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WITH GUSTS OF 18
TO 25 KTS DURING MID/LATE AFTERNOON. AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...THE
WIND WILL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND SPEEDS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH...DROPPING TO 5 TO 10 KTS BY LATE TONIGHT...WITH SOME
GUSTS TO 15 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH TODAY...

A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION EARLY MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS
FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST. A COLD FRONT COULD BRING A FEW MORE
SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK
IN TONIGHT. ANOTHER CLIPPER TRACKING MAINLY SOUTH OF THE REGION
COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 55 PERCENT MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 70 AND 100 PERCENT TONIGHT
AND MONDAY NIGHT.

A SOUTH WIND AVERAGE 10 TO 20 MPH...THEN BECOME WEST TO
NORTHWEST BY WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH BY AFTERNOON. THE WIND WILL
DIMINISHING DOWN 5-15 MPH LATE MONDAY NIGHT...LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WHICH
WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY
IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND
NEAR TERM...SND
SHORT TERM...SND/HWJIV
LONG TERM...KL/GJM
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...SND



000
FXUS61 KALY 301742
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
142 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME GUSTY WINDS. HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TONIGHT...BUT A DISTURBANCE WILL BRING
MORE CLOUDS TO OUR AREA...AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE FAR SOUTH
OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
BRING FAIR WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1238 PM...APPROACHING COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH ROME NY
AND IS AT WESTERN EDGE OF MOHAWK VALLEY. STILL A FEW BANDS OF
LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN WITH THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA ARE IN THE 30S...BUT HAVE REACHES THE 40S ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY CT WHERE SOME SUNSHINE HAS
BROKEN OUT. FRONT SEEMS TO MOVING A LITTLE FASTER AND SHOULD BE
EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER BY 2 PM AND EAST OF OUR ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA BY 4 PM.

THIS FRONT WILL TURN THE WINDS TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION. A SECOND
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA OVER NIGHT AND TURN THE WINDS MORE
NORTHWESTERLY...AND BRING IN ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR.

LATEST UPDATE TO ADJUST CLOUDS BASED ON SATELLITE...AND POPS BASED
ON RADAR. ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS SLIGHTLY DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND
OBSERVATIONS. STILL HAVE HIGHS IN THE 30S TERRAIN TO 40S TO AROUND
50 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

WINDS STILL EXPECTED TO BE QUITE GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS IN
THE 25-35 KNOT RANGE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN RESULTING IN A CLEARING
SKY AND A GRADUAL DIMINISHING WIND (AFTER SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE
EVENING)...BUT PROBABLY NOT GO COMPLETELY CALM. NIGHT TIME LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S...EXCEPT UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

A TRAILING PIECE OF NORTHERN STREAM UPPER ENERGY TRACKS SOUTHEAST
OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND TRACKS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TUESDAY...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A PRECIPITATION
SHIELD...POSSIBLY EXTENDING JUST SOUTH OF I-90. CLOUDS WILL EXTEND
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA. WHILE ON PAPER IT LOOKS COLD
ENOUGH FOR THIS PRECIPITATION TO BE SNOW...THAT FACT THAT IT IS
NEARLY APRIL...THE AIR MASS WILL NOT BE ALL THAT COLD...AND MUCH OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL DURING THE DAY ALLOWING SOLAR INFLUENCE
THROUGH THE CLOUDS...PTYPE WILL BE A CHALLENGE. IF THE PRECIPITATION
IS LIGHT ENOUGH (WHICH WE BELIEVE WILL BE THE CASE) WE WOULD
PROBABLY BE LOOKING AT SNOW AT ELEVATIONS HIGHER THAN 1500
FEET...AND RAIN OR RAIN SNOW MIX IN THE VALLEY WITH VERY LITTLE IF
ANY ACCUMULATION. EVEN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACCUMULATIONS (IF
ANY) LOOK LIGHT BUT AGAIN WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR LATER TRENDS TO
SEE IF THERE SIGNALS RAMPING UP THE QPF (WHICH WOULD FAVOR MORE SNOW
OVER RAIN AND OF COURSE MORE ACCUMULATION). WE KEPT POPS IN THE
CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW...EVEN THOUGH SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES
HIGHER CHANCES THAN THAT TO OUR SOUTH.

PROJECT HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS (POSSIBLY
HIGHEST NORTH OF ALBANY WHERE THE CLOUDS WILL BE THE THINNEST). HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 30S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN...IF
PRECIPITATION TURNS OUT TO BE HEAVIER...THESE HIGHS WOULD HAVE TO BE
LOWERED SEVERAL DEGREES.

THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ON TUESDAY EVENING...LEAVING HIGH PRESSURE
TO BUILD BACK IN. THE SKY SHOULD CLEAR AND WITH LIGHT WIND
TEMPERATURES WILL TANK (ESPECIALLY IN ANY AREAS THAT PICK UP EVEN
FRESH COATING OF SNOW). LOWS WILL DIP BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S
ALBANY SOUTHWARD...15-20 FURTHER NORTH AND WEST.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY DECENT DAY (AT LEAST BY THIS SPRING
STANDARDS). BRIGHT SUNSHINE WILL BOLSTER TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 40S IN THE VALLEYS...MID TO UPPER 30S HIGHER TERRAIN.
THESE VALUES ARE STILL A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY REGARDING THE HANDLING OF FAST MOVING
PACIFIC SHORTWAVE ENERGY DURING THE FRI-SAT TIME PERIOD.

THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE DEAMPLIFYING AT THE START OF THE
EXTENDED ACROSS THE U.S...AS THE PERSISTENT POLAR VORTEX RELAXES AND
REORIENTS A BIT FURTHER N AND W ACROSS CANADA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
FAST MOVING PACIFIC SYSTEMS TO TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
U.S. RIDGING AHEAD OF ONE OF THESE DISTURBANCES SHOULD BRING A
PERIOD OF MILDER TEMPERATURES FOR THU-FRI...BEFORE TEMPS TREND BACK
TO BELOW NORMAL BY NEXT WEEKEND AS MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ONCE
AGAIN FALL ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

THU-SAT NT...A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL TRACK EAST FROM
THE WESTERN U.S. DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH A NORTHERN PIECE
TRACKING INTO CENTRAL CANADA...WHILE A SOUTHERN ONE TRACKS INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. FRONTAL SYSTEMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN
ONE SHOULD IMPACT OUR REGION THU...WITH A WARM FRONT
INITIALLY...THEN A COLD FRONT SOMETIME THU NT OR FRI. THIS SHOULD
BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION THU AFTN-EARLY FRI. THEN...AS
THE SOUTHERN PIECE OF ENERGY TRACKS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
EVENTUALLY THE EASTERN U.S...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP
ALONG THE COLD FRONT...AND ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO LINGER/REDEVELOP
LATER FRI AND POSSIBLY INTO SAT. DEPENDING ON HOW THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY AND TIMING OF ASSOCIATED SFC BOUNDARIES TRACK FRI-
SAT...THERE COULD BE ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR P-TYPE ISSUES WITH ANY
LINGERING PRECIP FRIDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...SOME GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT ANY SOUTHERN PIECES OF ENERGY AND WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACK FURTHER SOUTH WITH LESS IMPACTS ON OUR REGION.
SO...AT THIS TIME...GENERALLY HAVE INDICATED ONLY CHC POPS FOR
THIS TIME PERIOD...MAINLY FOR RAIN SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH SOME SNOW
COULD OCCUR FRI NT INTO SAT MORNING DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING
AND TRACK OF SYSTEMS.

SUN...A RETURN TO BELOW...TO POTENTIALLY WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IS
QUITE POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF ANY PREVIOUS SYSTEM. IT SHOULD BE
GENERALLY DRY...ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS OF SNOW OR
RAIN DEPENDING ON INSTABILITY AND OVERALL PROGRESSION OF UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY.

TEMPERATURE WISE...HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND
50S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. HIGHS FRIDAY
GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH UPPER 40S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TEENS TO THE 20S. HIGHS SUNDAY IN
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES INTO THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD...BUT MOSTLY VFR CIGS EXPECTED. THE BEST CAHNCE FOR MVFR
WILL BE AT KPSF WHERE SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AND LOWER CIGS
ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING...WITH CIGS STAYING DOWN OVERNIGHT. THE
OTHER TAF SITES MIGHT SEE A STRAY SHOWER BUT CIG/VSBY SHOULD
REMAIN VFR. TUESDAY MORNING EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH A
THICKENING AND LOWERING MID CLOUD DECK BY NOON.

WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WITH GUSTS OF 18
TO 25 KTS DURING MID/LATE AFTERNOON. AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...THE
WIND WILL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND SPEEDS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH...DROPPING TO 5 TO 10 KTS BY LATE TONIGHT...WITH SOME
GUSTS TO 15 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH TODAY...

A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION EARLY MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS
FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST. A COLD FRONT COULD BRING A FEW MORE
SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK
IN TONIGHT. ANOTHER CLIPPER TRACKING MAINLY SOUTH OF THE REGION
COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 55 PERCENT MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 70 AND 100 PERCENT TONIGHT
AND MONDAY NIGHT.

A SOUTH WIND AVERAGE 10 TO 20 MPH...THEN BECOME WEST TO
NORTHWEST BY WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH BY AFTERNOON. THE WIND WILL
DIMINISHING DOWN 5-15 MPH LATE MONDAY NIGHT...LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WHICH
WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY
IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND
NEAR TERM...SND
SHORT TERM...SND/HWJIV
LONG TERM...KL/GJM
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...SND




000
FXUS61 KALY 301742
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
142 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME GUSTY WINDS. HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TONIGHT...BUT A DISTURBANCE WILL BRING
MORE CLOUDS TO OUR AREA...AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE FAR SOUTH
OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
BRING FAIR WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1238 PM...APPROACHING COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH ROME NY
AND IS AT WESTERN EDGE OF MOHAWK VALLEY. STILL A FEW BANDS OF
LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN WITH THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA ARE IN THE 30S...BUT HAVE REACHES THE 40S ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY CT WHERE SOME SUNSHINE HAS
BROKEN OUT. FRONT SEEMS TO MOVING A LITTLE FASTER AND SHOULD BE
EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER BY 2 PM AND EAST OF OUR ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA BY 4 PM.

THIS FRONT WILL TURN THE WINDS TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION. A SECOND
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA OVER NIGHT AND TURN THE WINDS MORE
NORTHWESTERLY...AND BRING IN ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR.

LATEST UPDATE TO ADJUST CLOUDS BASED ON SATELLITE...AND POPS BASED
ON RADAR. ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS SLIGHTLY DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND
OBSERVATIONS. STILL HAVE HIGHS IN THE 30S TERRAIN TO 40S TO AROUND
50 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

WINDS STILL EXPECTED TO BE QUITE GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS IN
THE 25-35 KNOT RANGE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN RESULTING IN A CLEARING
SKY AND A GRADUAL DIMINISHING WIND (AFTER SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE
EVENING)...BUT PROBABLY NOT GO COMPLETELY CALM. NIGHT TIME LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S...EXCEPT UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

A TRAILING PIECE OF NORTHERN STREAM UPPER ENERGY TRACKS SOUTHEAST
OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND TRACKS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TUESDAY...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A PRECIPITATION
SHIELD...POSSIBLY EXTENDING JUST SOUTH OF I-90. CLOUDS WILL EXTEND
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA. WHILE ON PAPER IT LOOKS COLD
ENOUGH FOR THIS PRECIPITATION TO BE SNOW...THAT FACT THAT IT IS
NEARLY APRIL...THE AIR MASS WILL NOT BE ALL THAT COLD...AND MUCH OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL DURING THE DAY ALLOWING SOLAR INFLUENCE
THROUGH THE CLOUDS...PTYPE WILL BE A CHALLENGE. IF THE PRECIPITATION
IS LIGHT ENOUGH (WHICH WE BELIEVE WILL BE THE CASE) WE WOULD
PROBABLY BE LOOKING AT SNOW AT ELEVATIONS HIGHER THAN 1500
FEET...AND RAIN OR RAIN SNOW MIX IN THE VALLEY WITH VERY LITTLE IF
ANY ACCUMULATION. EVEN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACCUMULATIONS (IF
ANY) LOOK LIGHT BUT AGAIN WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR LATER TRENDS TO
SEE IF THERE SIGNALS RAMPING UP THE QPF (WHICH WOULD FAVOR MORE SNOW
OVER RAIN AND OF COURSE MORE ACCUMULATION). WE KEPT POPS IN THE
CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW...EVEN THOUGH SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES
HIGHER CHANCES THAN THAT TO OUR SOUTH.

PROJECT HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS (POSSIBLY
HIGHEST NORTH OF ALBANY WHERE THE CLOUDS WILL BE THE THINNEST). HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 30S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN...IF
PRECIPITATION TURNS OUT TO BE HEAVIER...THESE HIGHS WOULD HAVE TO BE
LOWERED SEVERAL DEGREES.

THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ON TUESDAY EVENING...LEAVING HIGH PRESSURE
TO BUILD BACK IN. THE SKY SHOULD CLEAR AND WITH LIGHT WIND
TEMPERATURES WILL TANK (ESPECIALLY IN ANY AREAS THAT PICK UP EVEN
FRESH COATING OF SNOW). LOWS WILL DIP BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S
ALBANY SOUTHWARD...15-20 FURTHER NORTH AND WEST.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY DECENT DAY (AT LEAST BY THIS SPRING
STANDARDS). BRIGHT SUNSHINE WILL BOLSTER TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 40S IN THE VALLEYS...MID TO UPPER 30S HIGHER TERRAIN.
THESE VALUES ARE STILL A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY REGARDING THE HANDLING OF FAST MOVING
PACIFIC SHORTWAVE ENERGY DURING THE FRI-SAT TIME PERIOD.

THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE DEAMPLIFYING AT THE START OF THE
EXTENDED ACROSS THE U.S...AS THE PERSISTENT POLAR VORTEX RELAXES AND
REORIENTS A BIT FURTHER N AND W ACROSS CANADA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
FAST MOVING PACIFIC SYSTEMS TO TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
U.S. RIDGING AHEAD OF ONE OF THESE DISTURBANCES SHOULD BRING A
PERIOD OF MILDER TEMPERATURES FOR THU-FRI...BEFORE TEMPS TREND BACK
TO BELOW NORMAL BY NEXT WEEKEND AS MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ONCE
AGAIN FALL ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

THU-SAT NT...A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL TRACK EAST FROM
THE WESTERN U.S. DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH A NORTHERN PIECE
TRACKING INTO CENTRAL CANADA...WHILE A SOUTHERN ONE TRACKS INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. FRONTAL SYSTEMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN
ONE SHOULD IMPACT OUR REGION THU...WITH A WARM FRONT
INITIALLY...THEN A COLD FRONT SOMETIME THU NT OR FRI. THIS SHOULD
BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION THU AFTN-EARLY FRI. THEN...AS
THE SOUTHERN PIECE OF ENERGY TRACKS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
EVENTUALLY THE EASTERN U.S...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP
ALONG THE COLD FRONT...AND ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO LINGER/REDEVELOP
LATER FRI AND POSSIBLY INTO SAT. DEPENDING ON HOW THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY AND TIMING OF ASSOCIATED SFC BOUNDARIES TRACK FRI-
SAT...THERE COULD BE ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR P-TYPE ISSUES WITH ANY
LINGERING PRECIP FRIDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...SOME GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT ANY SOUTHERN PIECES OF ENERGY AND WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACK FURTHER SOUTH WITH LESS IMPACTS ON OUR REGION.
SO...AT THIS TIME...GENERALLY HAVE INDICATED ONLY CHC POPS FOR
THIS TIME PERIOD...MAINLY FOR RAIN SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH SOME SNOW
COULD OCCUR FRI NT INTO SAT MORNING DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING
AND TRACK OF SYSTEMS.

SUN...A RETURN TO BELOW...TO POTENTIALLY WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IS
QUITE POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF ANY PREVIOUS SYSTEM. IT SHOULD BE
GENERALLY DRY...ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS OF SNOW OR
RAIN DEPENDING ON INSTABILITY AND OVERALL PROGRESSION OF UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY.

TEMPERATURE WISE...HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND
50S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. HIGHS FRIDAY
GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH UPPER 40S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TEENS TO THE 20S. HIGHS SUNDAY IN
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES INTO THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD...BUT MOSTLY VFR CIGS EXPECTED. THE BEST CAHNCE FOR MVFR
WILL BE AT KPSF WHERE SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AND LOWER CIGS
ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING...WITH CIGS STAYING DOWN OVERNIGHT. THE
OTHER TAF SITES MIGHT SEE A STRAY SHOWER BUT CIG/VSBY SHOULD
REMAIN VFR. TUESDAY MORNING EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH A
THICKENING AND LOWERING MID CLOUD DECK BY NOON.

WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WITH GUSTS OF 18
TO 25 KTS DURING MID/LATE AFTERNOON. AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...THE
WIND WILL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND SPEEDS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH...DROPPING TO 5 TO 10 KTS BY LATE TONIGHT...WITH SOME
GUSTS TO 15 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH TODAY...

A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION EARLY MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS
FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST. A COLD FRONT COULD BRING A FEW MORE
SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK
IN TONIGHT. ANOTHER CLIPPER TRACKING MAINLY SOUTH OF THE REGION
COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 55 PERCENT MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 70 AND 100 PERCENT TONIGHT
AND MONDAY NIGHT.

A SOUTH WIND AVERAGE 10 TO 20 MPH...THEN BECOME WEST TO
NORTHWEST BY WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH BY AFTERNOON. THE WIND WILL
DIMINISHING DOWN 5-15 MPH LATE MONDAY NIGHT...LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WHICH
WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY
IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND
NEAR TERM...SND
SHORT TERM...SND/HWJIV
LONG TERM...KL/GJM
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...SND



000
FXUS61 KALY 301742
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
142 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME GUSTY WINDS. HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TONIGHT...BUT A DISTURBANCE WILL BRING
MORE CLOUDS TO OUR AREA...AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE FAR SOUTH
OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
BRING FAIR WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1238 PM...APPROACHING COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH ROME NY
AND IS AT WESTERN EDGE OF MOHAWK VALLEY. STILL A FEW BANDS OF
LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN WITH THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA ARE IN THE 30S...BUT HAVE REACHES THE 40S ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY CT WHERE SOME SUNSHINE HAS
BROKEN OUT. FRONT SEEMS TO MOVING A LITTLE FASTER AND SHOULD BE
EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER BY 2 PM AND EAST OF OUR ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA BY 4 PM.

THIS FRONT WILL TURN THE WINDS TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION. A SECOND
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA OVER NIGHT AND TURN THE WINDS MORE
NORTHWESTERLY...AND BRING IN ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR.

LATEST UPDATE TO ADJUST CLOUDS BASED ON SATELLITE...AND POPS BASED
ON RADAR. ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS SLIGHTLY DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND
OBSERVATIONS. STILL HAVE HIGHS IN THE 30S TERRAIN TO 40S TO AROUND
50 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

WINDS STILL EXPECTED TO BE QUITE GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS IN
THE 25-35 KNOT RANGE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN RESULTING IN A CLEARING
SKY AND A GRADUAL DIMINISHING WIND (AFTER SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE
EVENING)...BUT PROBABLY NOT GO COMPLETELY CALM. NIGHT TIME LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S...EXCEPT UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

A TRAILING PIECE OF NORTHERN STREAM UPPER ENERGY TRACKS SOUTHEAST
OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND TRACKS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TUESDAY...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A PRECIPITATION
SHIELD...POSSIBLY EXTENDING JUST SOUTH OF I-90. CLOUDS WILL EXTEND
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA. WHILE ON PAPER IT LOOKS COLD
ENOUGH FOR THIS PRECIPITATION TO BE SNOW...THAT FACT THAT IT IS
NEARLY APRIL...THE AIR MASS WILL NOT BE ALL THAT COLD...AND MUCH OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL DURING THE DAY ALLOWING SOLAR INFLUENCE
THROUGH THE CLOUDS...PTYPE WILL BE A CHALLENGE. IF THE PRECIPITATION
IS LIGHT ENOUGH (WHICH WE BELIEVE WILL BE THE CASE) WE WOULD
PROBABLY BE LOOKING AT SNOW AT ELEVATIONS HIGHER THAN 1500
FEET...AND RAIN OR RAIN SNOW MIX IN THE VALLEY WITH VERY LITTLE IF
ANY ACCUMULATION. EVEN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACCUMULATIONS (IF
ANY) LOOK LIGHT BUT AGAIN WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR LATER TRENDS TO
SEE IF THERE SIGNALS RAMPING UP THE QPF (WHICH WOULD FAVOR MORE SNOW
OVER RAIN AND OF COURSE MORE ACCUMULATION). WE KEPT POPS IN THE
CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW...EVEN THOUGH SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES
HIGHER CHANCES THAN THAT TO OUR SOUTH.

PROJECT HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS (POSSIBLY
HIGHEST NORTH OF ALBANY WHERE THE CLOUDS WILL BE THE THINNEST). HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 30S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN...IF
PRECIPITATION TURNS OUT TO BE HEAVIER...THESE HIGHS WOULD HAVE TO BE
LOWERED SEVERAL DEGREES.

THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ON TUESDAY EVENING...LEAVING HIGH PRESSURE
TO BUILD BACK IN. THE SKY SHOULD CLEAR AND WITH LIGHT WIND
TEMPERATURES WILL TANK (ESPECIALLY IN ANY AREAS THAT PICK UP EVEN
FRESH COATING OF SNOW). LOWS WILL DIP BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S
ALBANY SOUTHWARD...15-20 FURTHER NORTH AND WEST.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY DECENT DAY (AT LEAST BY THIS SPRING
STANDARDS). BRIGHT SUNSHINE WILL BOLSTER TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 40S IN THE VALLEYS...MID TO UPPER 30S HIGHER TERRAIN.
THESE VALUES ARE STILL A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY REGARDING THE HANDLING OF FAST MOVING
PACIFIC SHORTWAVE ENERGY DURING THE FRI-SAT TIME PERIOD.

THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE DEAMPLIFYING AT THE START OF THE
EXTENDED ACROSS THE U.S...AS THE PERSISTENT POLAR VORTEX RELAXES AND
REORIENTS A BIT FURTHER N AND W ACROSS CANADA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
FAST MOVING PACIFIC SYSTEMS TO TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
U.S. RIDGING AHEAD OF ONE OF THESE DISTURBANCES SHOULD BRING A
PERIOD OF MILDER TEMPERATURES FOR THU-FRI...BEFORE TEMPS TREND BACK
TO BELOW NORMAL BY NEXT WEEKEND AS MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ONCE
AGAIN FALL ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

THU-SAT NT...A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL TRACK EAST FROM
THE WESTERN U.S. DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH A NORTHERN PIECE
TRACKING INTO CENTRAL CANADA...WHILE A SOUTHERN ONE TRACKS INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. FRONTAL SYSTEMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN
ONE SHOULD IMPACT OUR REGION THU...WITH A WARM FRONT
INITIALLY...THEN A COLD FRONT SOMETIME THU NT OR FRI. THIS SHOULD
BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION THU AFTN-EARLY FRI. THEN...AS
THE SOUTHERN PIECE OF ENERGY TRACKS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
EVENTUALLY THE EASTERN U.S...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP
ALONG THE COLD FRONT...AND ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO LINGER/REDEVELOP
LATER FRI AND POSSIBLY INTO SAT. DEPENDING ON HOW THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY AND TIMING OF ASSOCIATED SFC BOUNDARIES TRACK FRI-
SAT...THERE COULD BE ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR P-TYPE ISSUES WITH ANY
LINGERING PRECIP FRIDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...SOME GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT ANY SOUTHERN PIECES OF ENERGY AND WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACK FURTHER SOUTH WITH LESS IMPACTS ON OUR REGION.
SO...AT THIS TIME...GENERALLY HAVE INDICATED ONLY CHC POPS FOR
THIS TIME PERIOD...MAINLY FOR RAIN SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH SOME SNOW
COULD OCCUR FRI NT INTO SAT MORNING DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING
AND TRACK OF SYSTEMS.

SUN...A RETURN TO BELOW...TO POTENTIALLY WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IS
QUITE POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF ANY PREVIOUS SYSTEM. IT SHOULD BE
GENERALLY DRY...ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS OF SNOW OR
RAIN DEPENDING ON INSTABILITY AND OVERALL PROGRESSION OF UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY.

TEMPERATURE WISE...HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND
50S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. HIGHS FRIDAY
GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH UPPER 40S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TEENS TO THE 20S. HIGHS SUNDAY IN
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES INTO THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD...BUT MOSTLY VFR CIGS EXPECTED. THE BEST CAHNCE FOR MVFR
WILL BE AT KPSF WHERE SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AND LOWER CIGS
ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING...WITH CIGS STAYING DOWN OVERNIGHT. THE
OTHER TAF SITES MIGHT SEE A STRAY SHOWER BUT CIG/VSBY SHOULD
REMAIN VFR. TUESDAY MORNING EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH A
THICKENING AND LOWERING MID CLOUD DECK BY NOON.

WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WITH GUSTS OF 18
TO 25 KTS DURING MID/LATE AFTERNOON. AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...THE
WIND WILL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND SPEEDS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH...DROPPING TO 5 TO 10 KTS BY LATE TONIGHT...WITH SOME
GUSTS TO 15 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH TODAY...

A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION EARLY MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS
FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST. A COLD FRONT COULD BRING A FEW MORE
SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK
IN TONIGHT. ANOTHER CLIPPER TRACKING MAINLY SOUTH OF THE REGION
COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 55 PERCENT MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 70 AND 100 PERCENT TONIGHT
AND MONDAY NIGHT.

A SOUTH WIND AVERAGE 10 TO 20 MPH...THEN BECOME WEST TO
NORTHWEST BY WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH BY AFTERNOON. THE WIND WILL
DIMINISHING DOWN 5-15 MPH LATE MONDAY NIGHT...LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WHICH
WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY
IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND
NEAR TERM...SND
SHORT TERM...SND/HWJIV
LONG TERM...KL/GJM
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...SND




000
FXUS61 KALY 301639
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1239 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME GUSTY WINDS. HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TONIGHT...BUT A DISTURBANCE WILL BRING
MORE CLOUDS TO OUR AREA...AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE FAR SOUTH
OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
BRING FAIR WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1238 PM...APPROACHING COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH ROME NY
AND IS AT WESTERN EDGE OF MOHAWK VALLEY. STILL A FEW BANDS OF
LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN WITH THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA ARE IN THE 30S...BUT HAVE REACHES THE 40S ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY CT WHERE SOME SUNSHINE HAS
BROKEN OUT. FRONT SEEMS TO MOVING A LITTLE FASTER AND SHOULD BE
EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER BY 2 PM AND EAST OF OUR ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA BY 4 PM.

THIS FRONT WILL TURN THE WINDS TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION. A SECOND
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA OVER NIGHT AND TURN THE WINDS MORE
NORTHWESTERLY...AND BRING IN ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR.

LATEST UPDATE TO ADJUST CLOUDS BASED ON SATELLITE...AND POPS BASED
ON RADAR. ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS SLIGHTLY DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND
OBSERVATIONS. STILL HAVE HIGHS IN THE 30S TERRAIN TO 40S TO AROUND
50 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

WINDS STILL EXPECTED TO BE QUITE GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS IN
THE 25-35 KNOT RANGE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN RESULTING IN A CLEARING
SKY AND A GRADUAL DIMINISHING WIND (AFTER SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE
EVENING)...BUT PROBABLY NOT GO COMPLETELY CALM. NIGHT TIME LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S...EXCEPT UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

A TRAILING PIECE OF NORTHERN STREAM UPPER ENERGY TRACKS SOUTHEAST
OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND TRACKS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TUESDAY...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A PRECIPITATION
SHIELD...POSSIBLY EXTENDING JUST SOUTH OF I-90. CLOUDS WILL EXTEND
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA. WHILE ON PAPER IT LOOKS COLD
ENOUGH FOR THIS PRECIPITATION TO BE SNOW...THAT FACT THAT IT IS
NEARLY APRIL...THE AIR MASS WILL NOT BE ALL THAT COLD...AND MUCH OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL DURING THE DAY ALLOWING SOLAR INFLUENCE
THROUGH THE CLOUDS...PTYPE WILL BE A CHALLENGE. IF THE PRECIPITATION
IS LIGHT ENOUGH (WHICH WE BELIEVE WILL BE THE CASE) WE WOULD
PROBABLY BE LOOKING AT SNOW AT ELEVATIONS HIGHER THAN 1500
FEET...AND RAIN OR RAIN SNOW MIX IN THE VALLEY WITH VERY LITTLE IF
ANY ACCUMULATION. EVEN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACCUMULATIONS (IF
ANY) LOOK LIGHT BUT AGAIN WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR LATER TRENDS TO
SEE IF THERE SIGNALS RAMPING UP THE QPF (WHICH WOULD FAVOR MORE SNOW
OVER RAIN AND OF COURSE MORE ACCUMULATION). WE KEPT POPS IN THE
CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW...EVEN THOUGH SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES
HIGHER CHANCES THAN THAT TO OUR SOUTH.

PROJECT HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS (POSSIBLY
HIGHEST NORTH OF ALBANY WHERE THE CLOUDS WILL BE THE THINNEST). HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 30S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN...IF
PRECIPITATION TURNS OUT TO BE HEAVIER...THESE HIGHS WOULD HAVE TO BE
LOWERED SEVERAL DEGREES.

THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ON TUESDAY EVENING...LEAVING HIGH PRESSURE
TO BUILD BACK IN. THE SKY SHOULD CLEAR AND WITH LIGHT WIND
TEMPERATURES WILL TANK (ESPECIALLY IN ANY AREAS THAT PICK UP EVEN
FRESH COATING OF SNOW). LOWS WILL DIP BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S
ALBANY SOUTHWARD...15-20 FURTHER NORTH AND WEST.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY DECENT DAY (AT LEAST BY THIS SPRING
STANDARDS). BRIGHT SUNSHINE WILL BOLSTER TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 40S IN THE VALLEYS...MID TO UPPER 30S HIGHER TERRAIN.
THESE VALUES ARE STILL A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY REGARDING THE HANDLING OF FAST MOVING
PACIFIC SHORTWAVE ENERGY DURING THE FRI-SAT TIME PERIOD.

THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE DEAMPLIFYING AT THE START OF THE
EXTENDED ACROSS THE U.S...AS THE PERSISTENT POLAR VORTEX RELAXES AND
REORIENTS A BIT FURTHER N AND W ACROSS CANADA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
FAST MOVING PACIFIC SYSTEMS TO TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
U.S. RIDGING AHEAD OF ONE OF THESE DISTURBANCES SHOULD BRING A
PERIOD OF MILDER TEMPERATURES FOR THU-FRI...BEFORE TEMPS TREND BACK
TO BELOW NORMAL BY NEXT WEEKEND AS MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ONCE
AGAIN FALL ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

THU-SAT NT...A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL TRACK EAST FROM
THE WESTERN U.S. DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH A NORTHERN PIECE
TRACKING INTO CENTRAL CANADA...WHILE A SOUTHERN ONE TRACKS INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. FRONTAL SYSTEMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN
ONE SHOULD IMPACT OUR REGION THU...WITH A WARM FRONT
INITIALLY...THEN A COLD FRONT SOMETIME THU NT OR FRI. THIS SHOULD
BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION THU AFTN-EARLY FRI. THEN...AS
THE SOUTHERN PIECE OF ENERGY TRACKS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
EVENTUALLY THE EASTERN U.S...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP
ALONG THE COLD FRONT...AND ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO LINGER/REDEVELOP
LATER FRI AND POSSIBLY INTO SAT. DEPENDING ON HOW THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY AND TIMING OF ASSOCIATED SFC BOUNDARIES TRACK FRI-
SAT...THERE COULD BE ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR P-TYPE ISSUES WITH ANY
LINGERING PRECIP FRIDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...SOME GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT ANY SOUTHERN PIECES OF ENERGY AND WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACK FURTHER SOUTH WITH LESS IMPACTS ON OUR REGION.
SO...AT THIS TIME...GENERALLY HAVE INDICATED ONLY CHC POPS FOR
THIS TIME PERIOD...MAINLY FOR RAIN SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH SOME SNOW
COULD OCCUR FRI NT INTO SAT MORNING DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING
AND TRACK OF SYSTEMS.

SUN...A RETURN TO BELOW...TO POTENTIALLY WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IS
QUITE POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF ANY PREVIOUS SYSTEM. IT SHOULD BE
GENERALLY DRY...ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS OF SNOW OR
RAIN DEPENDING ON INSTABILITY AND OVERALL PROGRESSION OF UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY.

TEMPERATURE WISE...HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND
50S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. HIGHS FRIDAY
GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH UPPER 40S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TEENS TO THE 20S. HIGHS SUNDAY IN
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 630 AM...THE INITIAL BAND OF SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT WAS ALREADY MOVING THROUGH THE TAF
SITES AND WILL LIKELY BE EAST OF THE REGION BY 12Z (THE START OF
THE TAF PERIOD). EVEN AFTER THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH...THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS (MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS LATER IN THE DAY...WILL
CONTINUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING
THE MID AFTERNOON PERIOD. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THERE WILL STILL
BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALSO AFFECTS
THE REGION.

ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A FEW WEATHER FEATURES AFFECTING THE REGION
DURING THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z TUESDAY...MOISTURE IS LIMITED
AND FORCING IS RELATIVELY WEAK...SO FOR THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF
TAF SITES HAVE GENERALLY FORECAST VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE
TAF PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION IS AT KGFL...WHERE A TEMPO GROUP FOR
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS DUE TO SNOW SHOWERS HAS BEEN FORECAST BETWEEN 12Z
AND 15Z. OTHERWISE...THE THREAT OF SHOWERS IS LOW AND TIMING
DIFFICULT...SO HAVE ONLY INDICATED VCSH DURING THE DAY AT THE
OTHER TAF SITES AND DURING OTHER TIMES OF THE TAFS.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AT 8 TO 12
KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS. AFTER THE WARM FRONT THE WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS WITH
GUSTS OF 18 TO 25 KTS DURING MID/LATE MONDAY MORNING. BY MID
AFTERNOON THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WESTERLY AFTER THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH WITH SPEEDS OF 12 TO 18 KTS AND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30
KTS. AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...THE SPEEDS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH...DROPPING TO 5 TO 10 KTS BY LATE TONIGHT...WITH SOME
GUSTS TO 15 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH TODAY...

A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION EARLY MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS
FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST. A COLD FRONT COULD BRING A FEW MORE
SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK
IN TONIGHT. ANOTHER CLIPPER TRACKING MAINLY SOUTH OF THE REGION
COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 55 PERCENT MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 70 AND 100 PERCENT TONIGHT
AND MONDAY NIGHT.

A SOUTH WIND AVERAGE 10 TO 20 MPH...THEN BECOME WEST TO
NORTHWEST BY WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH BY AFTERNOON. THE WIND WILL
DIMINISHING DOWN 5-15 MPH LATE MONDAY NIGHT...LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WHICH
WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY
IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND
NEAR TERM...SND
SHORT TERM...SND/HWJIV
LONG TERM...KL/GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...SND




000
FXUS61 KALY 301639
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1239 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME GUSTY WINDS. HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TONIGHT...BUT A DISTURBANCE WILL BRING
MORE CLOUDS TO OUR AREA...AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE FAR SOUTH
OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
BRING FAIR WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1238 PM...APPROACHING COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH ROME NY
AND IS AT WESTERN EDGE OF MOHAWK VALLEY. STILL A FEW BANDS OF
LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN WITH THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA ARE IN THE 30S...BUT HAVE REACHES THE 40S ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY CT WHERE SOME SUNSHINE HAS
BROKEN OUT. FRONT SEEMS TO MOVING A LITTLE FASTER AND SHOULD BE
EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER BY 2 PM AND EAST OF OUR ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA BY 4 PM.

THIS FRONT WILL TURN THE WINDS TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION. A SECOND
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA OVER NIGHT AND TURN THE WINDS MORE
NORTHWESTERLY...AND BRING IN ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR.

LATEST UPDATE TO ADJUST CLOUDS BASED ON SATELLITE...AND POPS BASED
ON RADAR. ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS SLIGHTLY DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND
OBSERVATIONS. STILL HAVE HIGHS IN THE 30S TERRAIN TO 40S TO AROUND
50 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

WINDS STILL EXPECTED TO BE QUITE GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS IN
THE 25-35 KNOT RANGE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN RESULTING IN A CLEARING
SKY AND A GRADUAL DIMINISHING WIND (AFTER SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE
EVENING)...BUT PROBABLY NOT GO COMPLETELY CALM. NIGHT TIME LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S...EXCEPT UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

A TRAILING PIECE OF NORTHERN STREAM UPPER ENERGY TRACKS SOUTHEAST
OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND TRACKS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TUESDAY...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A PRECIPITATION
SHIELD...POSSIBLY EXTENDING JUST SOUTH OF I-90. CLOUDS WILL EXTEND
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA. WHILE ON PAPER IT LOOKS COLD
ENOUGH FOR THIS PRECIPITATION TO BE SNOW...THAT FACT THAT IT IS
NEARLY APRIL...THE AIR MASS WILL NOT BE ALL THAT COLD...AND MUCH OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL DURING THE DAY ALLOWING SOLAR INFLUENCE
THROUGH THE CLOUDS...PTYPE WILL BE A CHALLENGE. IF THE PRECIPITATION
IS LIGHT ENOUGH (WHICH WE BELIEVE WILL BE THE CASE) WE WOULD
PROBABLY BE LOOKING AT SNOW AT ELEVATIONS HIGHER THAN 1500
FEET...AND RAIN OR RAIN SNOW MIX IN THE VALLEY WITH VERY LITTLE IF
ANY ACCUMULATION. EVEN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACCUMULATIONS (IF
ANY) LOOK LIGHT BUT AGAIN WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR LATER TRENDS TO
SEE IF THERE SIGNALS RAMPING UP THE QPF (WHICH WOULD FAVOR MORE SNOW
OVER RAIN AND OF COURSE MORE ACCUMULATION). WE KEPT POPS IN THE
CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW...EVEN THOUGH SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES
HIGHER CHANCES THAN THAT TO OUR SOUTH.

PROJECT HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS (POSSIBLY
HIGHEST NORTH OF ALBANY WHERE THE CLOUDS WILL BE THE THINNEST). HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 30S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN...IF
PRECIPITATION TURNS OUT TO BE HEAVIER...THESE HIGHS WOULD HAVE TO BE
LOWERED SEVERAL DEGREES.

THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ON TUESDAY EVENING...LEAVING HIGH PRESSURE
TO BUILD BACK IN. THE SKY SHOULD CLEAR AND WITH LIGHT WIND
TEMPERATURES WILL TANK (ESPECIALLY IN ANY AREAS THAT PICK UP EVEN
FRESH COATING OF SNOW). LOWS WILL DIP BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S
ALBANY SOUTHWARD...15-20 FURTHER NORTH AND WEST.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY DECENT DAY (AT LEAST BY THIS SPRING
STANDARDS). BRIGHT SUNSHINE WILL BOLSTER TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 40S IN THE VALLEYS...MID TO UPPER 30S HIGHER TERRAIN.
THESE VALUES ARE STILL A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY REGARDING THE HANDLING OF FAST MOVING
PACIFIC SHORTWAVE ENERGY DURING THE FRI-SAT TIME PERIOD.

THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE DEAMPLIFYING AT THE START OF THE
EXTENDED ACROSS THE U.S...AS THE PERSISTENT POLAR VORTEX RELAXES AND
REORIENTS A BIT FURTHER N AND W ACROSS CANADA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
FAST MOVING PACIFIC SYSTEMS TO TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
U.S. RIDGING AHEAD OF ONE OF THESE DISTURBANCES SHOULD BRING A
PERIOD OF MILDER TEMPERATURES FOR THU-FRI...BEFORE TEMPS TREND BACK
TO BELOW NORMAL BY NEXT WEEKEND AS MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ONCE
AGAIN FALL ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

THU-SAT NT...A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL TRACK EAST FROM
THE WESTERN U.S. DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH A NORTHERN PIECE
TRACKING INTO CENTRAL CANADA...WHILE A SOUTHERN ONE TRACKS INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. FRONTAL SYSTEMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN
ONE SHOULD IMPACT OUR REGION THU...WITH A WARM FRONT
INITIALLY...THEN A COLD FRONT SOMETIME THU NT OR FRI. THIS SHOULD
BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION THU AFTN-EARLY FRI. THEN...AS
THE SOUTHERN PIECE OF ENERGY TRACKS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
EVENTUALLY THE EASTERN U.S...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP
ALONG THE COLD FRONT...AND ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO LINGER/REDEVELOP
LATER FRI AND POSSIBLY INTO SAT. DEPENDING ON HOW THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY AND TIMING OF ASSOCIATED SFC BOUNDARIES TRACK FRI-
SAT...THERE COULD BE ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR P-TYPE ISSUES WITH ANY
LINGERING PRECIP FRIDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...SOME GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT ANY SOUTHERN PIECES OF ENERGY AND WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACK FURTHER SOUTH WITH LESS IMPACTS ON OUR REGION.
SO...AT THIS TIME...GENERALLY HAVE INDICATED ONLY CHC POPS FOR
THIS TIME PERIOD...MAINLY FOR RAIN SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH SOME SNOW
COULD OCCUR FRI NT INTO SAT MORNING DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING
AND TRACK OF SYSTEMS.

SUN...A RETURN TO BELOW...TO POTENTIALLY WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IS
QUITE POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF ANY PREVIOUS SYSTEM. IT SHOULD BE
GENERALLY DRY...ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS OF SNOW OR
RAIN DEPENDING ON INSTABILITY AND OVERALL PROGRESSION OF UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY.

TEMPERATURE WISE...HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND
50S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. HIGHS FRIDAY
GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH UPPER 40S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TEENS TO THE 20S. HIGHS SUNDAY IN
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 630 AM...THE INITIAL BAND OF SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT WAS ALREADY MOVING THROUGH THE TAF
SITES AND WILL LIKELY BE EAST OF THE REGION BY 12Z (THE START OF
THE TAF PERIOD). EVEN AFTER THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH...THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS (MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS LATER IN THE DAY...WILL
CONTINUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING
THE MID AFTERNOON PERIOD. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THERE WILL STILL
BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALSO AFFECTS
THE REGION.

ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A FEW WEATHER FEATURES AFFECTING THE REGION
DURING THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z TUESDAY...MOISTURE IS LIMITED
AND FORCING IS RELATIVELY WEAK...SO FOR THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF
TAF SITES HAVE GENERALLY FORECAST VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE
TAF PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION IS AT KGFL...WHERE A TEMPO GROUP FOR
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS DUE TO SNOW SHOWERS HAS BEEN FORECAST BETWEEN 12Z
AND 15Z. OTHERWISE...THE THREAT OF SHOWERS IS LOW AND TIMING
DIFFICULT...SO HAVE ONLY INDICATED VCSH DURING THE DAY AT THE
OTHER TAF SITES AND DURING OTHER TIMES OF THE TAFS.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AT 8 TO 12
KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS. AFTER THE WARM FRONT THE WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS WITH
GUSTS OF 18 TO 25 KTS DURING MID/LATE MONDAY MORNING. BY MID
AFTERNOON THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WESTERLY AFTER THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH WITH SPEEDS OF 12 TO 18 KTS AND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30
KTS. AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...THE SPEEDS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH...DROPPING TO 5 TO 10 KTS BY LATE TONIGHT...WITH SOME
GUSTS TO 15 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH TODAY...

A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION EARLY MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS
FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST. A COLD FRONT COULD BRING A FEW MORE
SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK
IN TONIGHT. ANOTHER CLIPPER TRACKING MAINLY SOUTH OF THE REGION
COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 55 PERCENT MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 70 AND 100 PERCENT TONIGHT
AND MONDAY NIGHT.

A SOUTH WIND AVERAGE 10 TO 20 MPH...THEN BECOME WEST TO
NORTHWEST BY WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH BY AFTERNOON. THE WIND WILL
DIMINISHING DOWN 5-15 MPH LATE MONDAY NIGHT...LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WHICH
WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY
IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND
NEAR TERM...SND
SHORT TERM...SND/HWJIV
LONG TERM...KL/GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...SND



000
FXUS61 KOKX 301523
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1123 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS LATE TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A QUICK MOVING LOW
ON TUE. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THEN...A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE AREA LATE
IN THE WEEK...INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FORECAST ON TRACK WITH JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO REFLECT
LATEST OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE...MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT PRODUCING A BATCH OF RADAR RETURNS ACROSS
UPSTATE NY INTO ERN PA THAT WILL TRAVERSE THE CWA DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. 00Z KOKX SOUNDING WAS DRY WITH ONLY 0.12
PW. LLVL MOISTURE CONFINED TO ERN LI AND CT WHERE FLOW OFF THE
OCEAN HAS PROVIDED SOME MOISTENING. PCPN COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO
BE SCT AND LGT. THE COLUMN APPEARS COLD ENOUGH BASED ON THE 00Z
MODELS TO ALLOW FOR SNOW SHWRS POSSIBLE MIXED WITH RAIN THRU
12Z...THEN TRANSITIONING TO MAINLY RAIN SHWRS THRU THE MRNG HRS AS
BOTH THE BL AND MID LVLS WARM. PCPN CHCS MAINLY TIL 16Z...THEN
THEY DROP QUICKLY.

THE CDFNT OVER OH AT 7Z REACHES ORANGE COUNTY PER THE 12Z NAM
RIGHT ABOUT 18Z. IT THEN SWEEPS ACROSS THE CWA AND CLEARS THE AREA
BY 00Z. ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE COULD PRODUCE A FEW HRS OF PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES BEFORE DARK. MOSTLY CLR SKIES OVERNIGHT BUT THE DATA
SUGGESTS WIND WILL KEEPS THINGS SLIGHTLY STIRRED UP...THEREBY
KEEPING TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT. AS A RESULT...LOWS CLOSE TO
GUIDANCE WERE USED WITH MINS ABOUT 5-7 DEGREES BLW CLIMO. IF WINDS
DECOUPLE...AT LEAST 5 DEGREES WILL NEED TO BE CHOPPED OFF THE FCST
ACROSS THE OUTLYING AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
SYS CURRENTLY OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL RACE TOWARDS THE
AREA WITH THE SFC LOW REACHING THE NYC LONGITUDE APPROXIMATELY 00Z
WED. THE 00Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF ARE ALL IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SPEED...BUT THE MODELS DIFFER WRT THE EXACT N-S TRACK. THE
ECMWF WAS THE FURTHEST S...WITH THE NAM AND GFS CLUSTERED CLOSELY
WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLES ACROSS CNTRL NJ. THE SREF MEAN WAS SLIGHLY
FURTHER N. POPS FOR INCREASED TO JUST BLW LIKELY BY LATE AFTN.
THIS TRACK COMBINED WITH THE THERMAL PROFILES ALOFT WOULD SUPPORT
A COLD ENOUGH COLUMN ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA FOR SNOW. WITH THE
BL INITIALLY WARM...LGT RAIN COULD MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO SNOW AS
STEADIER/HEAVIER PCPN MOVES IN. SRN AREAS...PARTICULARLY FROM WRN
NJ ZONES THRU THE CITY AND ONTO LI...TEMPS ALOFT MAY WARM FOR A
CHANGE BACK TO RAIN...OR IT MAY EVEN REMAIN ALL RAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. LATEST 00Z
FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATING THAT ANY RAIN OR SNOW...WILL CHANGE TO
ALL SNOW SHORTLY AFTER 00Z ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AS
COLD AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. QPF TOTALS ARE GENERALLY ON THE LOW
END WITH LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. ANY PRECIPITATION WILL
TAPER OFF LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY THEN MOVES OFFSHORE
THURSDAY...WITH RETURN FLOW AND MOIST AIR QUICKLY SPREADING NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
40S.

NEXT LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE LOCAL AREA LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...WITH RAIN CHANCES CONTINUING STRAIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S AND LOWS IN
THE LOW TO MID 40S. TEMPERATURES FALL BACK TO NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

LIGHT PRECIP HAS TAPERED OFF...AND CAN EXPECT VFR CONDS FOR THE REST
OF THE TAF PERIOD.

SW WINDS 10-15 KT WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT WITH 20-25 KT GUSTS
BETWEEN 16-18Z. AFTER COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE TERMINALS...WINDS
SHIFT TO THE NW...GENERALLY BETWEEN 290-310 MAG...BY 22-00Z.

GUSTS END BETWEEN 00-03Z...AND WINDS DIMINISH TO 8-12 KT.

          ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS WILL REMAIN JUST TO THE LEFT OF 310 MAG
WITH PEAK GUSTS 25-27 KT BETWEEN 18-22Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS WILL REMAIN JUST TO THE LEFT OF 310 MAG
WITH PEAK GUSTS AROUND 25 KT BETWEEN 18-22Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS BECOMING 280-300 MAG WITH PEAK GUSTS 25-
28 KT BETWEEN 18-22Z.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS BECOMING 280-300 MAG WITH PEAK GUSTS
AROUND 25 KT BETWEEN 18-22Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NW WITH PEAK GUSTS UP TO
25 KT BETWEEN 18-22Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CONDS LIFT TO VFR BY 16Z. WINDS SHIFTING
TO THE NW WITH PEAK GUSTS UP TO 25 KT FROM 19-00Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.TUESDAY...VFR. LATE AFTERNOON MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
DEVELOPING -RA/SN.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLE MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN -SN.
.WEDNESDAY...VFR.
.THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR...WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN -RA LATE IN
IN THE DAY AND AT NIGHT. POSSIBLE LLWS.
.FRIDAY...MVFR IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SW WIND INCREASE TODAY TO SCA LVLS...THEN WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW
THIS AFTN INTO THE EVE AS A CDFNT TRACKS THRU. WINDS DIMINISH THIS
EVE...BUT SEAS REMAIN ABV SCA LVLS ON THE OCEAN. SCA COND MAY
DEVELOP AGAIN ON ALL WATERS TUE AS LOW PRES TRACKS QUICKLY INTO
THE REGION. SEAS MAY BRIEFLY TOUGH 5 FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT SUB-SMALL CRAFT LEVEL CONDITIONS THROUGH
THURSDAY AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS OVER THE REGION. WIND
GUSTS AND WAVES INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE OCEAN WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TRACE AMTS TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT ARE EXPECTED
TODAY. A FEW TENTHS OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT IS POSSIBLE TUE AND TUE
NGT. THEREAFTER...NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS
FORECAST.

RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW BANK FULL...BUT
INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT WILL CONTINUE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT INTO
THIS WEEKEND. ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY
OCCUR...COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING
IS UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS
SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-
     335-338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/JMC
NEAR TERM...BC/JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...BC/JMC
HYDROLOGY...BC/JMC



000
FXUS61 KOKX 301523
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1123 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS LATE TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A QUICK MOVING LOW
ON TUE. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THEN...A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE AREA LATE
IN THE WEEK...INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FORECAST ON TRACK WITH JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO REFLECT
LATEST OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE...MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT PRODUCING A BATCH OF RADAR RETURNS ACROSS
UPSTATE NY INTO ERN PA THAT WILL TRAVERSE THE CWA DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. 00Z KOKX SOUNDING WAS DRY WITH ONLY 0.12
PW. LLVL MOISTURE CONFINED TO ERN LI AND CT WHERE FLOW OFF THE
OCEAN HAS PROVIDED SOME MOISTENING. PCPN COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO
BE SCT AND LGT. THE COLUMN APPEARS COLD ENOUGH BASED ON THE 00Z
MODELS TO ALLOW FOR SNOW SHWRS POSSIBLE MIXED WITH RAIN THRU
12Z...THEN TRANSITIONING TO MAINLY RAIN SHWRS THRU THE MRNG HRS AS
BOTH THE BL AND MID LVLS WARM. PCPN CHCS MAINLY TIL 16Z...THEN
THEY DROP QUICKLY.

THE CDFNT OVER OH AT 7Z REACHES ORANGE COUNTY PER THE 12Z NAM
RIGHT ABOUT 18Z. IT THEN SWEEPS ACROSS THE CWA AND CLEARS THE AREA
BY 00Z. ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE COULD PRODUCE A FEW HRS OF PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES BEFORE DARK. MOSTLY CLR SKIES OVERNIGHT BUT THE DATA
SUGGESTS WIND WILL KEEPS THINGS SLIGHTLY STIRRED UP...THEREBY
KEEPING TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT. AS A RESULT...LOWS CLOSE TO
GUIDANCE WERE USED WITH MINS ABOUT 5-7 DEGREES BLW CLIMO. IF WINDS
DECOUPLE...AT LEAST 5 DEGREES WILL NEED TO BE CHOPPED OFF THE FCST
ACROSS THE OUTLYING AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
SYS CURRENTLY OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL RACE TOWARDS THE
AREA WITH THE SFC LOW REACHING THE NYC LONGITUDE APPROXIMATELY 00Z
WED. THE 00Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF ARE ALL IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SPEED...BUT THE MODELS DIFFER WRT THE EXACT N-S TRACK. THE
ECMWF WAS THE FURTHEST S...WITH THE NAM AND GFS CLUSTERED CLOSELY
WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLES ACROSS CNTRL NJ. THE SREF MEAN WAS SLIGHLY
FURTHER N. POPS FOR INCREASED TO JUST BLW LIKELY BY LATE AFTN.
THIS TRACK COMBINED WITH THE THERMAL PROFILES ALOFT WOULD SUPPORT
A COLD ENOUGH COLUMN ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA FOR SNOW. WITH THE
BL INITIALLY WARM...LGT RAIN COULD MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO SNOW AS
STEADIER/HEAVIER PCPN MOVES IN. SRN AREAS...PARTICULARLY FROM WRN
NJ ZONES THRU THE CITY AND ONTO LI...TEMPS ALOFT MAY WARM FOR A
CHANGE BACK TO RAIN...OR IT MAY EVEN REMAIN ALL RAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. LATEST 00Z
FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATING THAT ANY RAIN OR SNOW...WILL CHANGE TO
ALL SNOW SHORTLY AFTER 00Z ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AS
COLD AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. QPF TOTALS ARE GENERALLY ON THE LOW
END WITH LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. ANY PRECIPITATION WILL
TAPER OFF LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY THEN MOVES OFFSHORE
THURSDAY...WITH RETURN FLOW AND MOIST AIR QUICKLY SPREADING NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
40S.

NEXT LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE LOCAL AREA LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...WITH RAIN CHANCES CONTINUING STRAIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S AND LOWS IN
THE LOW TO MID 40S. TEMPERATURES FALL BACK TO NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

LIGHT PRECIP HAS TAPERED OFF...AND CAN EXPECT VFR CONDS FOR THE REST
OF THE TAF PERIOD.

SW WINDS 10-15 KT WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT WITH 20-25 KT GUSTS
BETWEEN 16-18Z. AFTER COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE TERMINALS...WINDS
SHIFT TO THE NW...GENERALLY BETWEEN 290-310 MAG...BY 22-00Z.

GUSTS END BETWEEN 00-03Z...AND WINDS DIMINISH TO 8-12 KT.

          ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS WILL REMAIN JUST TO THE LEFT OF 310 MAG
WITH PEAK GUSTS 25-27 KT BETWEEN 18-22Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS WILL REMAIN JUST TO THE LEFT OF 310 MAG
WITH PEAK GUSTS AROUND 25 KT BETWEEN 18-22Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS BECOMING 280-300 MAG WITH PEAK GUSTS 25-
28 KT BETWEEN 18-22Z.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS BECOMING 280-300 MAG WITH PEAK GUSTS
AROUND 25 KT BETWEEN 18-22Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NW WITH PEAK GUSTS UP TO
25 KT BETWEEN 18-22Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CONDS LIFT TO VFR BY 16Z. WINDS SHIFTING
TO THE NW WITH PEAK GUSTS UP TO 25 KT FROM 19-00Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.TUESDAY...VFR. LATE AFTERNOON MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
DEVELOPING -RA/SN.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLE MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN -SN.
.WEDNESDAY...VFR.
.THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR...WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN -RA LATE IN
IN THE DAY AND AT NIGHT. POSSIBLE LLWS.
.FRIDAY...MVFR IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SW WIND INCREASE TODAY TO SCA LVLS...THEN WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW
THIS AFTN INTO THE EVE AS A CDFNT TRACKS THRU. WINDS DIMINISH THIS
EVE...BUT SEAS REMAIN ABV SCA LVLS ON THE OCEAN. SCA COND MAY
DEVELOP AGAIN ON ALL WATERS TUE AS LOW PRES TRACKS QUICKLY INTO
THE REGION. SEAS MAY BRIEFLY TOUGH 5 FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT SUB-SMALL CRAFT LEVEL CONDITIONS THROUGH
THURSDAY AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS OVER THE REGION. WIND
GUSTS AND WAVES INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE OCEAN WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TRACE AMTS TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT ARE EXPECTED
TODAY. A FEW TENTHS OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT IS POSSIBLE TUE AND TUE
NGT. THEREAFTER...NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS
FORECAST.

RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW BANK FULL...BUT
INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT WILL CONTINUE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT INTO
THIS WEEKEND. ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY
OCCUR...COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING
IS UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS
SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-
     335-338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/JMC
NEAR TERM...BC/JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...BC/JMC
HYDROLOGY...BC/JMC




000
FXUS61 KOKX 301523
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1123 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS LATE TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A QUICK MOVING LOW
ON TUE. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THEN...A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE AREA LATE
IN THE WEEK...INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FORECAST ON TRACK WITH JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO REFLECT
LATEST OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE...MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT PRODUCING A BATCH OF RADAR RETURNS ACROSS
UPSTATE NY INTO ERN PA THAT WILL TRAVERSE THE CWA DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. 00Z KOKX SOUNDING WAS DRY WITH ONLY 0.12
PW. LLVL MOISTURE CONFINED TO ERN LI AND CT WHERE FLOW OFF THE
OCEAN HAS PROVIDED SOME MOISTENING. PCPN COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO
BE SCT AND LGT. THE COLUMN APPEARS COLD ENOUGH BASED ON THE 00Z
MODELS TO ALLOW FOR SNOW SHWRS POSSIBLE MIXED WITH RAIN THRU
12Z...THEN TRANSITIONING TO MAINLY RAIN SHWRS THRU THE MRNG HRS AS
BOTH THE BL AND MID LVLS WARM. PCPN CHCS MAINLY TIL 16Z...THEN
THEY DROP QUICKLY.

THE CDFNT OVER OH AT 7Z REACHES ORANGE COUNTY PER THE 12Z NAM
RIGHT ABOUT 18Z. IT THEN SWEEPS ACROSS THE CWA AND CLEARS THE AREA
BY 00Z. ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE COULD PRODUCE A FEW HRS OF PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES BEFORE DARK. MOSTLY CLR SKIES OVERNIGHT BUT THE DATA
SUGGESTS WIND WILL KEEPS THINGS SLIGHTLY STIRRED UP...THEREBY
KEEPING TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT. AS A RESULT...LOWS CLOSE TO
GUIDANCE WERE USED WITH MINS ABOUT 5-7 DEGREES BLW CLIMO. IF WINDS
DECOUPLE...AT LEAST 5 DEGREES WILL NEED TO BE CHOPPED OFF THE FCST
ACROSS THE OUTLYING AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
SYS CURRENTLY OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL RACE TOWARDS THE
AREA WITH THE SFC LOW REACHING THE NYC LONGITUDE APPROXIMATELY 00Z
WED. THE 00Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF ARE ALL IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SPEED...BUT THE MODELS DIFFER WRT THE EXACT N-S TRACK. THE
ECMWF WAS THE FURTHEST S...WITH THE NAM AND GFS CLUSTERED CLOSELY
WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLES ACROSS CNTRL NJ. THE SREF MEAN WAS SLIGHLY
FURTHER N. POPS FOR INCREASED TO JUST BLW LIKELY BY LATE AFTN.
THIS TRACK COMBINED WITH THE THERMAL PROFILES ALOFT WOULD SUPPORT
A COLD ENOUGH COLUMN ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA FOR SNOW. WITH THE
BL INITIALLY WARM...LGT RAIN COULD MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO SNOW AS
STEADIER/HEAVIER PCPN MOVES IN. SRN AREAS...PARTICULARLY FROM WRN
NJ ZONES THRU THE CITY AND ONTO LI...TEMPS ALOFT MAY WARM FOR A
CHANGE BACK TO RAIN...OR IT MAY EVEN REMAIN ALL RAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. LATEST 00Z
FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATING THAT ANY RAIN OR SNOW...WILL CHANGE TO
ALL SNOW SHORTLY AFTER 00Z ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AS
COLD AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. QPF TOTALS ARE GENERALLY ON THE LOW
END WITH LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. ANY PRECIPITATION WILL
TAPER OFF LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY THEN MOVES OFFSHORE
THURSDAY...WITH RETURN FLOW AND MOIST AIR QUICKLY SPREADING NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
40S.

NEXT LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE LOCAL AREA LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...WITH RAIN CHANCES CONTINUING STRAIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S AND LOWS IN
THE LOW TO MID 40S. TEMPERATURES FALL BACK TO NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

LIGHT PRECIP HAS TAPERED OFF...AND CAN EXPECT VFR CONDS FOR THE REST
OF THE TAF PERIOD.

SW WINDS 10-15 KT WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT WITH 20-25 KT GUSTS
BETWEEN 16-18Z. AFTER COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE TERMINALS...WINDS
SHIFT TO THE NW...GENERALLY BETWEEN 290-310 MAG...BY 22-00Z.

GUSTS END BETWEEN 00-03Z...AND WINDS DIMINISH TO 8-12 KT.

          ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS WILL REMAIN JUST TO THE LEFT OF 310 MAG
WITH PEAK GUSTS 25-27 KT BETWEEN 18-22Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS WILL REMAIN JUST TO THE LEFT OF 310 MAG
WITH PEAK GUSTS AROUND 25 KT BETWEEN 18-22Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS BECOMING 280-300 MAG WITH PEAK GUSTS 25-
28 KT BETWEEN 18-22Z.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS BECOMING 280-300 MAG WITH PEAK GUSTS
AROUND 25 KT BETWEEN 18-22Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NW WITH PEAK GUSTS UP TO
25 KT BETWEEN 18-22Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CONDS LIFT TO VFR BY 16Z. WINDS SHIFTING
TO THE NW WITH PEAK GUSTS UP TO 25 KT FROM 19-00Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.TUESDAY...VFR. LATE AFTERNOON MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
DEVELOPING -RA/SN.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLE MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN -SN.
.WEDNESDAY...VFR.
.THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR...WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN -RA LATE IN
IN THE DAY AND AT NIGHT. POSSIBLE LLWS.
.FRIDAY...MVFR IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SW WIND INCREASE TODAY TO SCA LVLS...THEN WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW
THIS AFTN INTO THE EVE AS A CDFNT TRACKS THRU. WINDS DIMINISH THIS
EVE...BUT SEAS REMAIN ABV SCA LVLS ON THE OCEAN. SCA COND MAY
DEVELOP AGAIN ON ALL WATERS TUE AS LOW PRES TRACKS QUICKLY INTO
THE REGION. SEAS MAY BRIEFLY TOUGH 5 FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT SUB-SMALL CRAFT LEVEL CONDITIONS THROUGH
THURSDAY AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS OVER THE REGION. WIND
GUSTS AND WAVES INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE OCEAN WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TRACE AMTS TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT ARE EXPECTED
TODAY. A FEW TENTHS OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT IS POSSIBLE TUE AND TUE
NGT. THEREAFTER...NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS
FORECAST.

RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW BANK FULL...BUT
INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT WILL CONTINUE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT INTO
THIS WEEKEND. ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY
OCCUR...COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING
IS UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS
SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-
     335-338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/JMC
NEAR TERM...BC/JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...BC/JMC
HYDROLOGY...BC/JMC




000
FXUS61 KOKX 301523
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1123 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS LATE TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A QUICK MOVING LOW
ON TUE. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THEN...A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE AREA LATE
IN THE WEEK...INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FORECAST ON TRACK WITH JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO REFLECT
LATEST OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE...MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT PRODUCING A BATCH OF RADAR RETURNS ACROSS
UPSTATE NY INTO ERN PA THAT WILL TRAVERSE THE CWA DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. 00Z KOKX SOUNDING WAS DRY WITH ONLY 0.12
PW. LLVL MOISTURE CONFINED TO ERN LI AND CT WHERE FLOW OFF THE
OCEAN HAS PROVIDED SOME MOISTENING. PCPN COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO
BE SCT AND LGT. THE COLUMN APPEARS COLD ENOUGH BASED ON THE 00Z
MODELS TO ALLOW FOR SNOW SHWRS POSSIBLE MIXED WITH RAIN THRU
12Z...THEN TRANSITIONING TO MAINLY RAIN SHWRS THRU THE MRNG HRS AS
BOTH THE BL AND MID LVLS WARM. PCPN CHCS MAINLY TIL 16Z...THEN
THEY DROP QUICKLY.

THE CDFNT OVER OH AT 7Z REACHES ORANGE COUNTY PER THE 12Z NAM
RIGHT ABOUT 18Z. IT THEN SWEEPS ACROSS THE CWA AND CLEARS THE AREA
BY 00Z. ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE COULD PRODUCE A FEW HRS OF PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES BEFORE DARK. MOSTLY CLR SKIES OVERNIGHT BUT THE DATA
SUGGESTS WIND WILL KEEPS THINGS SLIGHTLY STIRRED UP...THEREBY
KEEPING TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT. AS A RESULT...LOWS CLOSE TO
GUIDANCE WERE USED WITH MINS ABOUT 5-7 DEGREES BLW CLIMO. IF WINDS
DECOUPLE...AT LEAST 5 DEGREES WILL NEED TO BE CHOPPED OFF THE FCST
ACROSS THE OUTLYING AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
SYS CURRENTLY OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL RACE TOWARDS THE
AREA WITH THE SFC LOW REACHING THE NYC LONGITUDE APPROXIMATELY 00Z
WED. THE 00Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF ARE ALL IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SPEED...BUT THE MODELS DIFFER WRT THE EXACT N-S TRACK. THE
ECMWF WAS THE FURTHEST S...WITH THE NAM AND GFS CLUSTERED CLOSELY
WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLES ACROSS CNTRL NJ. THE SREF MEAN WAS SLIGHLY
FURTHER N. POPS FOR INCREASED TO JUST BLW LIKELY BY LATE AFTN.
THIS TRACK COMBINED WITH THE THERMAL PROFILES ALOFT WOULD SUPPORT
A COLD ENOUGH COLUMN ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA FOR SNOW. WITH THE
BL INITIALLY WARM...LGT RAIN COULD MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO SNOW AS
STEADIER/HEAVIER PCPN MOVES IN. SRN AREAS...PARTICULARLY FROM WRN
NJ ZONES THRU THE CITY AND ONTO LI...TEMPS ALOFT MAY WARM FOR A
CHANGE BACK TO RAIN...OR IT MAY EVEN REMAIN ALL RAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. LATEST 00Z
FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATING THAT ANY RAIN OR SNOW...WILL CHANGE TO
ALL SNOW SHORTLY AFTER 00Z ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AS
COLD AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. QPF TOTALS ARE GENERALLY ON THE LOW
END WITH LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. ANY PRECIPITATION WILL
TAPER OFF LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY THEN MOVES OFFSHORE
THURSDAY...WITH RETURN FLOW AND MOIST AIR QUICKLY SPREADING NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
40S.

NEXT LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE LOCAL AREA LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...WITH RAIN CHANCES CONTINUING STRAIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S AND LOWS IN
THE LOW TO MID 40S. TEMPERATURES FALL BACK TO NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

LIGHT PRECIP HAS TAPERED OFF...AND CAN EXPECT VFR CONDS FOR THE REST
OF THE TAF PERIOD.

SW WINDS 10-15 KT WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT WITH 20-25 KT GUSTS
BETWEEN 16-18Z. AFTER COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE TERMINALS...WINDS
SHIFT TO THE NW...GENERALLY BETWEEN 290-310 MAG...BY 22-00Z.

GUSTS END BETWEEN 00-03Z...AND WINDS DIMINISH TO 8-12 KT.

          ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS WILL REMAIN JUST TO THE LEFT OF 310 MAG
WITH PEAK GUSTS 25-27 KT BETWEEN 18-22Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS WILL REMAIN JUST TO THE LEFT OF 310 MAG
WITH PEAK GUSTS AROUND 25 KT BETWEEN 18-22Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS BECOMING 280-300 MAG WITH PEAK GUSTS 25-
28 KT BETWEEN 18-22Z.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS BECOMING 280-300 MAG WITH PEAK GUSTS
AROUND 25 KT BETWEEN 18-22Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NW WITH PEAK GUSTS UP TO
25 KT BETWEEN 18-22Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CONDS LIFT TO VFR BY 16Z. WINDS SHIFTING
TO THE NW WITH PEAK GUSTS UP TO 25 KT FROM 19-00Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.TUESDAY...VFR. LATE AFTERNOON MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
DEVELOPING -RA/SN.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLE MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN -SN.
.WEDNESDAY...VFR.
.THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR...WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN -RA LATE IN
IN THE DAY AND AT NIGHT. POSSIBLE LLWS.
.FRIDAY...MVFR IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SW WIND INCREASE TODAY TO SCA LVLS...THEN WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW
THIS AFTN INTO THE EVE AS A CDFNT TRACKS THRU. WINDS DIMINISH THIS
EVE...BUT SEAS REMAIN ABV SCA LVLS ON THE OCEAN. SCA COND MAY
DEVELOP AGAIN ON ALL WATERS TUE AS LOW PRES TRACKS QUICKLY INTO
THE REGION. SEAS MAY BRIEFLY TOUGH 5 FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT SUB-SMALL CRAFT LEVEL CONDITIONS THROUGH
THURSDAY AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS OVER THE REGION. WIND
GUSTS AND WAVES INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE OCEAN WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TRACE AMTS TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT ARE EXPECTED
TODAY. A FEW TENTHS OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT IS POSSIBLE TUE AND TUE
NGT. THEREAFTER...NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS
FORECAST.

RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW BANK FULL...BUT
INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT WILL CONTINUE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT INTO
THIS WEEKEND. ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY
OCCUR...COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING
IS UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS
SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-
     335-338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/JMC
NEAR TERM...BC/JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...BC/JMC
HYDROLOGY...BC/JMC




000
FXUS61 KOKX 301523
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1123 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS LATE TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A QUICK MOVING LOW
ON TUE. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THEN...A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE AREA LATE
IN THE WEEK...INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FORECAST ON TRACK WITH JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO REFLECT
LATEST OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE...MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT PRODUCING A BATCH OF RADAR RETURNS ACROSS
UPSTATE NY INTO ERN PA THAT WILL TRAVERSE THE CWA DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. 00Z KOKX SOUNDING WAS DRY WITH ONLY 0.12
PW. LLVL MOISTURE CONFINED TO ERN LI AND CT WHERE FLOW OFF THE
OCEAN HAS PROVIDED SOME MOISTENING. PCPN COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO
BE SCT AND LGT. THE COLUMN APPEARS COLD ENOUGH BASED ON THE 00Z
MODELS TO ALLOW FOR SNOW SHWRS POSSIBLE MIXED WITH RAIN THRU
12Z...THEN TRANSITIONING TO MAINLY RAIN SHWRS THRU THE MRNG HRS AS
BOTH THE BL AND MID LVLS WARM. PCPN CHCS MAINLY TIL 16Z...THEN
THEY DROP QUICKLY.

THE CDFNT OVER OH AT 7Z REACHES ORANGE COUNTY PER THE 12Z NAM
RIGHT ABOUT 18Z. IT THEN SWEEPS ACROSS THE CWA AND CLEARS THE AREA
BY 00Z. ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE COULD PRODUCE A FEW HRS OF PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES BEFORE DARK. MOSTLY CLR SKIES OVERNIGHT BUT THE DATA
SUGGESTS WIND WILL KEEPS THINGS SLIGHTLY STIRRED UP...THEREBY
KEEPING TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT. AS A RESULT...LOWS CLOSE TO
GUIDANCE WERE USED WITH MINS ABOUT 5-7 DEGREES BLW CLIMO. IF WINDS
DECOUPLE...AT LEAST 5 DEGREES WILL NEED TO BE CHOPPED OFF THE FCST
ACROSS THE OUTLYING AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
SYS CURRENTLY OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL RACE TOWARDS THE
AREA WITH THE SFC LOW REACHING THE NYC LONGITUDE APPROXIMATELY 00Z
WED. THE 00Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF ARE ALL IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SPEED...BUT THE MODELS DIFFER WRT THE EXACT N-S TRACK. THE
ECMWF WAS THE FURTHEST S...WITH THE NAM AND GFS CLUSTERED CLOSELY
WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLES ACROSS CNTRL NJ. THE SREF MEAN WAS SLIGHLY
FURTHER N. POPS FOR INCREASED TO JUST BLW LIKELY BY LATE AFTN.
THIS TRACK COMBINED WITH THE THERMAL PROFILES ALOFT WOULD SUPPORT
A COLD ENOUGH COLUMN ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA FOR SNOW. WITH THE
BL INITIALLY WARM...LGT RAIN COULD MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO SNOW AS
STEADIER/HEAVIER PCPN MOVES IN. SRN AREAS...PARTICULARLY FROM WRN
NJ ZONES THRU THE CITY AND ONTO LI...TEMPS ALOFT MAY WARM FOR A
CHANGE BACK TO RAIN...OR IT MAY EVEN REMAIN ALL RAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. LATEST 00Z
FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATING THAT ANY RAIN OR SNOW...WILL CHANGE TO
ALL SNOW SHORTLY AFTER 00Z ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AS
COLD AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. QPF TOTALS ARE GENERALLY ON THE LOW
END WITH LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. ANY PRECIPITATION WILL
TAPER OFF LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY THEN MOVES OFFSHORE
THURSDAY...WITH RETURN FLOW AND MOIST AIR QUICKLY SPREADING NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
40S.

NEXT LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE LOCAL AREA LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...WITH RAIN CHANCES CONTINUING STRAIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S AND LOWS IN
THE LOW TO MID 40S. TEMPERATURES FALL BACK TO NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

LIGHT PRECIP HAS TAPERED OFF...AND CAN EXPECT VFR CONDS FOR THE REST
OF THE TAF PERIOD.

SW WINDS 10-15 KT WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT WITH 20-25 KT GUSTS
BETWEEN 16-18Z. AFTER COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE TERMINALS...WINDS
SHIFT TO THE NW...GENERALLY BETWEEN 290-310 MAG...BY 22-00Z.

GUSTS END BETWEEN 00-03Z...AND WINDS DIMINISH TO 8-12 KT.

          ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS WILL REMAIN JUST TO THE LEFT OF 310 MAG
WITH PEAK GUSTS 25-27 KT BETWEEN 18-22Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS WILL REMAIN JUST TO THE LEFT OF 310 MAG
WITH PEAK GUSTS AROUND 25 KT BETWEEN 18-22Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS BECOMING 280-300 MAG WITH PEAK GUSTS 25-
28 KT BETWEEN 18-22Z.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS BECOMING 280-300 MAG WITH PEAK GUSTS
AROUND 25 KT BETWEEN 18-22Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NW WITH PEAK GUSTS UP TO
25 KT BETWEEN 18-22Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CONDS LIFT TO VFR BY 16Z. WINDS SHIFTING
TO THE NW WITH PEAK GUSTS UP TO 25 KT FROM 19-00Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.TUESDAY...VFR. LATE AFTERNOON MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
DEVELOPING -RA/SN.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLE MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN -SN.
.WEDNESDAY...VFR.
.THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR...WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN -RA LATE IN
IN THE DAY AND AT NIGHT. POSSIBLE LLWS.
.FRIDAY...MVFR IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SW WIND INCREASE TODAY TO SCA LVLS...THEN WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW
THIS AFTN INTO THE EVE AS A CDFNT TRACKS THRU. WINDS DIMINISH THIS
EVE...BUT SEAS REMAIN ABV SCA LVLS ON THE OCEAN. SCA COND MAY
DEVELOP AGAIN ON ALL WATERS TUE AS LOW PRES TRACKS QUICKLY INTO
THE REGION. SEAS MAY BRIEFLY TOUGH 5 FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT SUB-SMALL CRAFT LEVEL CONDITIONS THROUGH
THURSDAY AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS OVER THE REGION. WIND
GUSTS AND WAVES INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE OCEAN WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TRACE AMTS TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT ARE EXPECTED
TODAY. A FEW TENTHS OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT IS POSSIBLE TUE AND TUE
NGT. THEREAFTER...NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS
FORECAST.

RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW BANK FULL...BUT
INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT WILL CONTINUE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT INTO
THIS WEEKEND. ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY
OCCUR...COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING
IS UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS
SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-
     335-338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/JMC
NEAR TERM...BC/JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...BC/JMC
HYDROLOGY...BC/JMC




000
FXUS61 KBOX 301348
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
948 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY BRINGING A FEW
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. A FAST-MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES
SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT...POTENTIALLY BRINGING MORE
LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS. A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM MAY
APPROACH LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

10 AM UPDATE...

WEAK FORCING WITHIN THE LOW- TO MID-LEVELS OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE
ON UP TO AROUND H7 IS LENDING TO A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW
ACROSS S NEW ENGLAND. REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY DOWN TO 2 MILES OR
LESS...OTHERWISE THE ROADS REMAIN WET. SNOW DRAGGING DOWN COLDER
AIR AND BLUSTERY WINDS TO THE SURFACE. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. WILL
SEE SNOW PUSH OFFSHORE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO ALLOWING FOR A
LULL IN THE WEATHER AND SW-FLOW TO PUSH TEMPERATURES UP TO AROUND
THE MID-40S...ROUGHLY 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW-NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR WITH RESPECT TO HIGHS.

THEREAFTER FOCUS BECOMES ALONG THE COLD FRONT PRESENTLY SITUATED
ACROSS THE E GREAT LAKES. AS IT SWEEPS SE COULD SEE SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY DEVELOP WITH FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING OF AVAILABLE
MOISTURE. MAIN FORCING OFFSHORE OF W-ATLANTIC MOISTURE WITH A
STRENGTHENING H3 JET AXIS AND ATTENDANT LEFT-EXIT-REGION. PWATS
AND H7 MOISTURE SHIFTING E WITH AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES THAT ARE
SUCCINCT WITH THE PRESENT SNOW-BAND OVER E NEW ENGLAND.

YET MAIN MID-LEVEL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AXIS ALOFT
SHOULD YIELD ENHANCED ASCENT ALONG THE ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT.
ENOUGH ALTOGETHER TO WARRANT AT LEAST CHANCE POPS. NEAR-TERM
MESOSCALE GUIDANCE MIXED ON OUTCOMES LIKELY DUE TO THE DIAGNOSIS
OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE WHICH IN SOME CASES IS VERY DRY. YET
UPSTREAM ACTIVITY IS PRESENT. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST ALONG THE
W-SLOPES OF HIGHER TERRAIN WITH OROGRAPHIC TENDENCIES...AND ACROSS
FAR SE NEW ENGLAND WHERE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL FORCING IS MORE
APPARENT.

SW-FLOW CONTINUING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT 20-25 MPH...
BACKING OUT OF THE W/NW GUSTING 20-30 MPH BEHIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...

TONIGHT...
COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES TO SUPPORT MIXING INTO THE NIGHT. WINDS
ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL BE 30-40 KNOTS...EXPECT SOME OF THIS TO MIX
TO THE SURFACE IN GUSTS. BASED ON TEMPERATURES UPSTREAM...EXPECT
LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

TUESDAY...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE WEATHER DRY MUCH OF THE DAY.
ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE RACES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT A CLIPPER LOW THAT MOVES
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES DURING THE AFTERNOON. FORECASTS
FROM THE 00Z MODEL SUITE ARE FARTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY WITH
THE ECMWF FARTHEST SOUTH. ALL MODELS BRING SOME MEASURABLE PCPN
INTO CT BY EVENING...THE GFS COVERS AREAS SOUTH OF THE MASS
PIKE...AND THE NAM HAS MEASURABLE PCPN EVERYWHERE.

TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST RAIN MOST PLACES EXCEPT SNOW IN THE
HILLS. TIMING OF THE PCPN WOULD BE AFTER 21Z. WE HAVE SHIFTED
OUR POPS FARTHER NORTH WITH CHANCE POPS REACHING TO ALONG/SOUTH OF
THE MASS PIKE BY 00Z.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
* MODERATING SPRING-LIKE TEMPS LATE THIS WEEK
* INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP DURING THE EASTER WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH AN ALBERTA
CLIPPER MOVING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. RIDGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WILL BUILD INTO NEW ENGLAND BY WED INTO THURSDAY. WESTERN TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CONUS AS A COLD FRONT REACHING THE NORTHEAST
LATE THUR THROUGH SAT. THIS SYSTEM IS ALSO AIDED BY AN UPPER LOW
CIRCLING AROUND HUDSON BAY WHICH WILL LOWER HEIGHTS IN THE NORTHEAST
BY NEXT WEEKEND.

OVERALL TREND IN THE GUIDANCE HAS LEAD TO A LOWER CONFIDENCE. MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED NORTHWARD WITH THE RUN FOR THE ALBERTA CLIPPER
INCREASING PRECIP FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. 00Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO SHOW HIGH PRESSURE ON WED BUT THE OVERALL COLD FRONT IS SPLIT
AMONGST GUIDANCE. THE GFS REMAINS QUICKER WITH THE SFC FRONT
THROUGH THE NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC FRI COMPARED TO THE OTHER
GUIDANCE. THEREFORE CONTINUED TO BLEND WITH WPC UNTIL THE MODELS
ARE MORE IN AGREEMENT.

DETAILS...

* TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY DIVE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM CANADA AND
MOVE JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. OVERALL GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED TOWARDS WHICH IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT RAIN/SNOW WILL
OCCUR. BELIEVE THAT LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE PIKE HAVE THE
BEST CHANCE TO SEE ANY SNOW ACCUMS ONCE TEMPS DROP DUE TO
WETBULBING. STILL NEED TO WATCH THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY AS THERE IS
STILL SPREAD AMONGST THE MODELS. RIGHT NOW ANTICIPATE A QUICK 1-2
INCHES OF SNOW ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE AND ISLAND.

* WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD BEHIND THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WED INTO WED NIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER SNE. LATEST
TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THURSDAY WILL STAY DRY AS HIGH
PRESSURE IS SLOW TO MOVE OFFSHORE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE WITH MID 40S ON WEDNESDAY AND MID 50S ON THURSDAY AS WAA
INCREASE AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM.

* THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. MODERATE
  CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP OCCURRING.

QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WILL SUPPORT CHANGEABLE TEMPERATURES... MODULATED
BY THE SFC COLD FRONT THU INTO SAT. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL BE ON
THE MILD SIDE IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT FINALLY GETTING ABOVE
FREEZING FOR NEW ENGLAND. IN FACT TEMPERATURES COULD BE THE WARMEST
THEY HAVE BEEN IN OVER FOUR MONTHS FOR THE REGION. HOWEVER AS THE
FRONT PASSES EXPECT TEMPS TO RETURN TO BELOW AVG BY ABOUT 5-15F.

ANTICIPATE THIS COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE AREA EITHER THURSDAY
NIGHT/GFS OR FRIDAY/EC AND CMC. APPEARS THAT A WAVE WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT SOMETIME LATE FRIDAY OR SAT. BECAUSE OF THE TIMING
DIFFERENCE...DECIDED TO BLANKET THIS TIME FRAME WITH CHC POPS AND
HOPEFULLY WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HRS CAN PUT BETTER DETAIL INTO THE
FORECAST. CAN STAY THAT THIS SYSTEM DOES LOOK WARM SO EXPECT PRECIP
TYPE TO BE MORE OF THE RAIN FORM. HOWEVER ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
FRONT COULD SEE SOME WET FLAKES.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS
TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MVFR-IFR WITH -SN. OTHERWISE LOW-END VFR TO MVFR CIGS. COLD FRONT
SWEEPS TERMINALS AROUND MID-AFTERNOON WITH SOME SCT -SHRA. GUSTY
SW-FLOW AHEAD WITH GUSTS 20-25 KTS...BACKING W/NW WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS.

TONIGHT...
VFR. GUSTY WEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT MAY REACH 25-30 KNOTS.

TUESDAY...
VFR. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE ACROSS CT AND RI TOWARD EVENING.

KBOS TAF...-SN AND IFR VSBYS CLEARING BY 14Z. SCT -SHRA/-SHSN
ACTIVITY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...BUT FEEL IMPACTS WILL
BE NO LOWER THAN MVFR.

KBDL TAF...WILL HOLD IMPACTS AT LOW-END VFR. COULD SEE BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. MAY SEE MVFR SOUTH OF
MASS PIKE IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...VFR.

FRIDAY...MVFR IN SHOWERS...COULD SEE IFR CONDITIONS BY FRI EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

10 AM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES.

TODAY...A COLD FRONT CROSSES NEW ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS TOWARD EVENING. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST
TO NEAR 25 KNOTS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. WEST WINDS TRAILING THE
FRONT WILL GUST 25-30 KNOTS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5-7 FEET ON THE
OUTER WATERS AND RHODE ISLANDS/BLOCK ISLAND SOUNDS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONTINUES ON ALL WATERS.

TONIGHT...GUSTY WEST WINDS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. SEAS OF 5-7 FEET
LINGER ON THE OUTER WATERS AND RHODE ISLAND SOUNDS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONTINUES.

TUESDAY...GUSTY WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BRIEFLY OVER THE WATERS. LINGERING SMALL CRAFTS ON THE OUTER
WATERS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY NIGHT...QUICK-MOVING SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN
WATERS. THIS WILL KEEP BOTH SEAS AND WINDS ABOVE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. THERE IS A LOW PROB OF GALES FORCE WINDS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE...ALLOWING
FOR SEAS AND WINDS TO RELAX.

FRIDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS...RESULTING IN
INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS AND SEAS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ231-232.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ230-233-234-
     236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB/DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 301348
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
948 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY BRINGING A FEW
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. A FAST-MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES
SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT...POTENTIALLY BRINGING MORE
LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS. A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM MAY
APPROACH LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

10 AM UPDATE...

WEAK FORCING WITHIN THE LOW- TO MID-LEVELS OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE
ON UP TO AROUND H7 IS LENDING TO A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW
ACROSS S NEW ENGLAND. REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY DOWN TO 2 MILES OR
LESS...OTHERWISE THE ROADS REMAIN WET. SNOW DRAGGING DOWN COLDER
AIR AND BLUSTERY WINDS TO THE SURFACE. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. WILL
SEE SNOW PUSH OFFSHORE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO ALLOWING FOR A
LULL IN THE WEATHER AND SW-FLOW TO PUSH TEMPERATURES UP TO AROUND
THE MID-40S...ROUGHLY 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW-NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR WITH RESPECT TO HIGHS.

THEREAFTER FOCUS BECOMES ALONG THE COLD FRONT PRESENTLY SITUATED
ACROSS THE E GREAT LAKES. AS IT SWEEPS SE COULD SEE SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY DEVELOP WITH FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING OF AVAILABLE
MOISTURE. MAIN FORCING OFFSHORE OF W-ATLANTIC MOISTURE WITH A
STRENGTHENING H3 JET AXIS AND ATTENDANT LEFT-EXIT-REGION. PWATS
AND H7 MOISTURE SHIFTING E WITH AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES THAT ARE
SUCCINCT WITH THE PRESENT SNOW-BAND OVER E NEW ENGLAND.

YET MAIN MID-LEVEL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AXIS ALOFT
SHOULD YIELD ENHANCED ASCENT ALONG THE ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT.
ENOUGH ALTOGETHER TO WARRANT AT LEAST CHANCE POPS. NEAR-TERM
MESOSCALE GUIDANCE MIXED ON OUTCOMES LIKELY DUE TO THE DIAGNOSIS
OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE WHICH IN SOME CASES IS VERY DRY. YET
UPSTREAM ACTIVITY IS PRESENT. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST ALONG THE
W-SLOPES OF HIGHER TERRAIN WITH OROGRAPHIC TENDENCIES...AND ACROSS
FAR SE NEW ENGLAND WHERE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL FORCING IS MORE
APPARENT.

SW-FLOW CONTINUING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT 20-25 MPH...
BACKING OUT OF THE W/NW GUSTING 20-30 MPH BEHIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...

TONIGHT...
COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES TO SUPPORT MIXING INTO THE NIGHT. WINDS
ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL BE 30-40 KNOTS...EXPECT SOME OF THIS TO MIX
TO THE SURFACE IN GUSTS. BASED ON TEMPERATURES UPSTREAM...EXPECT
LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

TUESDAY...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE WEATHER DRY MUCH OF THE DAY.
ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE RACES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT A CLIPPER LOW THAT MOVES
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES DURING THE AFTERNOON. FORECASTS
FROM THE 00Z MODEL SUITE ARE FARTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY WITH
THE ECMWF FARTHEST SOUTH. ALL MODELS BRING SOME MEASURABLE PCPN
INTO CT BY EVENING...THE GFS COVERS AREAS SOUTH OF THE MASS
PIKE...AND THE NAM HAS MEASURABLE PCPN EVERYWHERE.

TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST RAIN MOST PLACES EXCEPT SNOW IN THE
HILLS. TIMING OF THE PCPN WOULD BE AFTER 21Z. WE HAVE SHIFTED
OUR POPS FARTHER NORTH WITH CHANCE POPS REACHING TO ALONG/SOUTH OF
THE MASS PIKE BY 00Z.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
* MODERATING SPRING-LIKE TEMPS LATE THIS WEEK
* INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP DURING THE EASTER WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH AN ALBERTA
CLIPPER MOVING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. RIDGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WILL BUILD INTO NEW ENGLAND BY WED INTO THURSDAY. WESTERN TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CONUS AS A COLD FRONT REACHING THE NORTHEAST
LATE THUR THROUGH SAT. THIS SYSTEM IS ALSO AIDED BY AN UPPER LOW
CIRCLING AROUND HUDSON BAY WHICH WILL LOWER HEIGHTS IN THE NORTHEAST
BY NEXT WEEKEND.

OVERALL TREND IN THE GUIDANCE HAS LEAD TO A LOWER CONFIDENCE. MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED NORTHWARD WITH THE RUN FOR THE ALBERTA CLIPPER
INCREASING PRECIP FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. 00Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO SHOW HIGH PRESSURE ON WED BUT THE OVERALL COLD FRONT IS SPLIT
AMONGST GUIDANCE. THE GFS REMAINS QUICKER WITH THE SFC FRONT
THROUGH THE NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC FRI COMPARED TO THE OTHER
GUIDANCE. THEREFORE CONTINUED TO BLEND WITH WPC UNTIL THE MODELS
ARE MORE IN AGREEMENT.

DETAILS...

* TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY DIVE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM CANADA AND
MOVE JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. OVERALL GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED TOWARDS WHICH IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT RAIN/SNOW WILL
OCCUR. BELIEVE THAT LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE PIKE HAVE THE
BEST CHANCE TO SEE ANY SNOW ACCUMS ONCE TEMPS DROP DUE TO
WETBULBING. STILL NEED TO WATCH THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY AS THERE IS
STILL SPREAD AMONGST THE MODELS. RIGHT NOW ANTICIPATE A QUICK 1-2
INCHES OF SNOW ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE AND ISLAND.

* WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD BEHIND THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WED INTO WED NIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER SNE. LATEST
TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THURSDAY WILL STAY DRY AS HIGH
PRESSURE IS SLOW TO MOVE OFFSHORE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE WITH MID 40S ON WEDNESDAY AND MID 50S ON THURSDAY AS WAA
INCREASE AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM.

* THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. MODERATE
  CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP OCCURRING.

QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WILL SUPPORT CHANGEABLE TEMPERATURES... MODULATED
BY THE SFC COLD FRONT THU INTO SAT. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL BE ON
THE MILD SIDE IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT FINALLY GETTING ABOVE
FREEZING FOR NEW ENGLAND. IN FACT TEMPERATURES COULD BE THE WARMEST
THEY HAVE BEEN IN OVER FOUR MONTHS FOR THE REGION. HOWEVER AS THE
FRONT PASSES EXPECT TEMPS TO RETURN TO BELOW AVG BY ABOUT 5-15F.

ANTICIPATE THIS COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE AREA EITHER THURSDAY
NIGHT/GFS OR FRIDAY/EC AND CMC. APPEARS THAT A WAVE WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT SOMETIME LATE FRIDAY OR SAT. BECAUSE OF THE TIMING
DIFFERENCE...DECIDED TO BLANKET THIS TIME FRAME WITH CHC POPS AND
HOPEFULLY WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HRS CAN PUT BETTER DETAIL INTO THE
FORECAST. CAN STAY THAT THIS SYSTEM DOES LOOK WARM SO EXPECT PRECIP
TYPE TO BE MORE OF THE RAIN FORM. HOWEVER ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
FRONT COULD SEE SOME WET FLAKES.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS
TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MVFR-IFR WITH -SN. OTHERWISE LOW-END VFR TO MVFR CIGS. COLD FRONT
SWEEPS TERMINALS AROUND MID-AFTERNOON WITH SOME SCT -SHRA. GUSTY
SW-FLOW AHEAD WITH GUSTS 20-25 KTS...BACKING W/NW WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS.

TONIGHT...
VFR. GUSTY WEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT MAY REACH 25-30 KNOTS.

TUESDAY...
VFR. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE ACROSS CT AND RI TOWARD EVENING.

KBOS TAF...-SN AND IFR VSBYS CLEARING BY 14Z. SCT -SHRA/-SHSN
ACTIVITY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...BUT FEEL IMPACTS WILL
BE NO LOWER THAN MVFR.

KBDL TAF...WILL HOLD IMPACTS AT LOW-END VFR. COULD SEE BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. MAY SEE MVFR SOUTH OF
MASS PIKE IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...VFR.

FRIDAY...MVFR IN SHOWERS...COULD SEE IFR CONDITIONS BY FRI EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

10 AM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES.

TODAY...A COLD FRONT CROSSES NEW ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS TOWARD EVENING. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST
TO NEAR 25 KNOTS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. WEST WINDS TRAILING THE
FRONT WILL GUST 25-30 KNOTS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5-7 FEET ON THE
OUTER WATERS AND RHODE ISLANDS/BLOCK ISLAND SOUNDS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONTINUES ON ALL WATERS.

TONIGHT...GUSTY WEST WINDS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. SEAS OF 5-7 FEET
LINGER ON THE OUTER WATERS AND RHODE ISLAND SOUNDS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONTINUES.

TUESDAY...GUSTY WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BRIEFLY OVER THE WATERS. LINGERING SMALL CRAFTS ON THE OUTER
WATERS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY NIGHT...QUICK-MOVING SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN
WATERS. THIS WILL KEEP BOTH SEAS AND WINDS ABOVE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. THERE IS A LOW PROB OF GALES FORCE WINDS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE...ALLOWING
FOR SEAS AND WINDS TO RELAX.

FRIDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS...RESULTING IN
INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS AND SEAS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ231-232.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ230-233-234-
     236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB/DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 301348
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
948 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY BRINGING A FEW
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. A FAST-MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES
SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT...POTENTIALLY BRINGING MORE
LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS. A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM MAY
APPROACH LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

10 AM UPDATE...

WEAK FORCING WITHIN THE LOW- TO MID-LEVELS OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE
ON UP TO AROUND H7 IS LENDING TO A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW
ACROSS S NEW ENGLAND. REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY DOWN TO 2 MILES OR
LESS...OTHERWISE THE ROADS REMAIN WET. SNOW DRAGGING DOWN COLDER
AIR AND BLUSTERY WINDS TO THE SURFACE. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. WILL
SEE SNOW PUSH OFFSHORE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO ALLOWING FOR A
LULL IN THE WEATHER AND SW-FLOW TO PUSH TEMPERATURES UP TO AROUND
THE MID-40S...ROUGHLY 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW-NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR WITH RESPECT TO HIGHS.

THEREAFTER FOCUS BECOMES ALONG THE COLD FRONT PRESENTLY SITUATED
ACROSS THE E GREAT LAKES. AS IT SWEEPS SE COULD SEE SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY DEVELOP WITH FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING OF AVAILABLE
MOISTURE. MAIN FORCING OFFSHORE OF W-ATLANTIC MOISTURE WITH A
STRENGTHENING H3 JET AXIS AND ATTENDANT LEFT-EXIT-REGION. PWATS
AND H7 MOISTURE SHIFTING E WITH AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES THAT ARE
SUCCINCT WITH THE PRESENT SNOW-BAND OVER E NEW ENGLAND.

YET MAIN MID-LEVEL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AXIS ALOFT
SHOULD YIELD ENHANCED ASCENT ALONG THE ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT.
ENOUGH ALTOGETHER TO WARRANT AT LEAST CHANCE POPS. NEAR-TERM
MESOSCALE GUIDANCE MIXED ON OUTCOMES LIKELY DUE TO THE DIAGNOSIS
OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE WHICH IN SOME CASES IS VERY DRY. YET
UPSTREAM ACTIVITY IS PRESENT. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST ALONG THE
W-SLOPES OF HIGHER TERRAIN WITH OROGRAPHIC TENDENCIES...AND ACROSS
FAR SE NEW ENGLAND WHERE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL FORCING IS MORE
APPARENT.

SW-FLOW CONTINUING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT 20-25 MPH...
BACKING OUT OF THE W/NW GUSTING 20-30 MPH BEHIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...

TONIGHT...
COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES TO SUPPORT MIXING INTO THE NIGHT. WINDS
ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL BE 30-40 KNOTS...EXPECT SOME OF THIS TO MIX
TO THE SURFACE IN GUSTS. BASED ON TEMPERATURES UPSTREAM...EXPECT
LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

TUESDAY...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE WEATHER DRY MUCH OF THE DAY.
ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE RACES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT A CLIPPER LOW THAT MOVES
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES DURING THE AFTERNOON. FORECASTS
FROM THE 00Z MODEL SUITE ARE FARTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY WITH
THE ECMWF FARTHEST SOUTH. ALL MODELS BRING SOME MEASURABLE PCPN
INTO CT BY EVENING...THE GFS COVERS AREAS SOUTH OF THE MASS
PIKE...AND THE NAM HAS MEASURABLE PCPN EVERYWHERE.

TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST RAIN MOST PLACES EXCEPT SNOW IN THE
HILLS. TIMING OF THE PCPN WOULD BE AFTER 21Z. WE HAVE SHIFTED
OUR POPS FARTHER NORTH WITH CHANCE POPS REACHING TO ALONG/SOUTH OF
THE MASS PIKE BY 00Z.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
* MODERATING SPRING-LIKE TEMPS LATE THIS WEEK
* INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP DURING THE EASTER WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH AN ALBERTA
CLIPPER MOVING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. RIDGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WILL BUILD INTO NEW ENGLAND BY WED INTO THURSDAY. WESTERN TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CONUS AS A COLD FRONT REACHING THE NORTHEAST
LATE THUR THROUGH SAT. THIS SYSTEM IS ALSO AIDED BY AN UPPER LOW
CIRCLING AROUND HUDSON BAY WHICH WILL LOWER HEIGHTS IN THE NORTHEAST
BY NEXT WEEKEND.

OVERALL TREND IN THE GUIDANCE HAS LEAD TO A LOWER CONFIDENCE. MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED NORTHWARD WITH THE RUN FOR THE ALBERTA CLIPPER
INCREASING PRECIP FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. 00Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO SHOW HIGH PRESSURE ON WED BUT THE OVERALL COLD FRONT IS SPLIT
AMONGST GUIDANCE. THE GFS REMAINS QUICKER WITH THE SFC FRONT
THROUGH THE NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC FRI COMPARED TO THE OTHER
GUIDANCE. THEREFORE CONTINUED TO BLEND WITH WPC UNTIL THE MODELS
ARE MORE IN AGREEMENT.

DETAILS...

* TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY DIVE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM CANADA AND
MOVE JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. OVERALL GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED TOWARDS WHICH IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT RAIN/SNOW WILL
OCCUR. BELIEVE THAT LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE PIKE HAVE THE
BEST CHANCE TO SEE ANY SNOW ACCUMS ONCE TEMPS DROP DUE TO
WETBULBING. STILL NEED TO WATCH THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY AS THERE IS
STILL SPREAD AMONGST THE MODELS. RIGHT NOW ANTICIPATE A QUICK 1-2
INCHES OF SNOW ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE AND ISLAND.

* WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD BEHIND THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WED INTO WED NIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER SNE. LATEST
TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THURSDAY WILL STAY DRY AS HIGH
PRESSURE IS SLOW TO MOVE OFFSHORE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE WITH MID 40S ON WEDNESDAY AND MID 50S ON THURSDAY AS WAA
INCREASE AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM.

* THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. MODERATE
  CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP OCCURRING.

QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WILL SUPPORT CHANGEABLE TEMPERATURES... MODULATED
BY THE SFC COLD FRONT THU INTO SAT. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL BE ON
THE MILD SIDE IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT FINALLY GETTING ABOVE
FREEZING FOR NEW ENGLAND. IN FACT TEMPERATURES COULD BE THE WARMEST
THEY HAVE BEEN IN OVER FOUR MONTHS FOR THE REGION. HOWEVER AS THE
FRONT PASSES EXPECT TEMPS TO RETURN TO BELOW AVG BY ABOUT 5-15F.

ANTICIPATE THIS COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE AREA EITHER THURSDAY
NIGHT/GFS OR FRIDAY/EC AND CMC. APPEARS THAT A WAVE WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT SOMETIME LATE FRIDAY OR SAT. BECAUSE OF THE TIMING
DIFFERENCE...DECIDED TO BLANKET THIS TIME FRAME WITH CHC POPS AND
HOPEFULLY WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HRS CAN PUT BETTER DETAIL INTO THE
FORECAST. CAN STAY THAT THIS SYSTEM DOES LOOK WARM SO EXPECT PRECIP
TYPE TO BE MORE OF THE RAIN FORM. HOWEVER ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
FRONT COULD SEE SOME WET FLAKES.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS
TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MVFR-IFR WITH -SN. OTHERWISE LOW-END VFR TO MVFR CIGS. COLD FRONT
SWEEPS TERMINALS AROUND MID-AFTERNOON WITH SOME SCT -SHRA. GUSTY
SW-FLOW AHEAD WITH GUSTS 20-25 KTS...BACKING W/NW WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS.

TONIGHT...
VFR. GUSTY WEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT MAY REACH 25-30 KNOTS.

TUESDAY...
VFR. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE ACROSS CT AND RI TOWARD EVENING.

KBOS TAF...-SN AND IFR VSBYS CLEARING BY 14Z. SCT -SHRA/-SHSN
ACTIVITY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...BUT FEEL IMPACTS WILL
BE NO LOWER THAN MVFR.

KBDL TAF...WILL HOLD IMPACTS AT LOW-END VFR. COULD SEE BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. MAY SEE MVFR SOUTH OF
MASS PIKE IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...VFR.

FRIDAY...MVFR IN SHOWERS...COULD SEE IFR CONDITIONS BY FRI EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

10 AM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES.

TODAY...A COLD FRONT CROSSES NEW ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS TOWARD EVENING. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST
TO NEAR 25 KNOTS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. WEST WINDS TRAILING THE
FRONT WILL GUST 25-30 KNOTS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5-7 FEET ON THE
OUTER WATERS AND RHODE ISLANDS/BLOCK ISLAND SOUNDS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONTINUES ON ALL WATERS.

TONIGHT...GUSTY WEST WINDS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. SEAS OF 5-7 FEET
LINGER ON THE OUTER WATERS AND RHODE ISLAND SOUNDS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONTINUES.

TUESDAY...GUSTY WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BRIEFLY OVER THE WATERS. LINGERING SMALL CRAFTS ON THE OUTER
WATERS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY NIGHT...QUICK-MOVING SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN
WATERS. THIS WILL KEEP BOTH SEAS AND WINDS ABOVE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. THERE IS A LOW PROB OF GALES FORCE WINDS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE...ALLOWING
FOR SEAS AND WINDS TO RELAX.

FRIDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS...RESULTING IN
INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS AND SEAS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ231-232.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ230-233-234-
     236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB/DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 301348
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
948 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY BRINGING A FEW
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. A FAST-MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES
SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT...POTENTIALLY BRINGING MORE
LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS. A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM MAY
APPROACH LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

10 AM UPDATE...

WEAK FORCING WITHIN THE LOW- TO MID-LEVELS OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE
ON UP TO AROUND H7 IS LENDING TO A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW
ACROSS S NEW ENGLAND. REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY DOWN TO 2 MILES OR
LESS...OTHERWISE THE ROADS REMAIN WET. SNOW DRAGGING DOWN COLDER
AIR AND BLUSTERY WINDS TO THE SURFACE. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. WILL
SEE SNOW PUSH OFFSHORE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO ALLOWING FOR A
LULL IN THE WEATHER AND SW-FLOW TO PUSH TEMPERATURES UP TO AROUND
THE MID-40S...ROUGHLY 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW-NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR WITH RESPECT TO HIGHS.

THEREAFTER FOCUS BECOMES ALONG THE COLD FRONT PRESENTLY SITUATED
ACROSS THE E GREAT LAKES. AS IT SWEEPS SE COULD SEE SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY DEVELOP WITH FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING OF AVAILABLE
MOISTURE. MAIN FORCING OFFSHORE OF W-ATLANTIC MOISTURE WITH A
STRENGTHENING H3 JET AXIS AND ATTENDANT LEFT-EXIT-REGION. PWATS
AND H7 MOISTURE SHIFTING E WITH AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES THAT ARE
SUCCINCT WITH THE PRESENT SNOW-BAND OVER E NEW ENGLAND.

YET MAIN MID-LEVEL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AXIS ALOFT
SHOULD YIELD ENHANCED ASCENT ALONG THE ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT.
ENOUGH ALTOGETHER TO WARRANT AT LEAST CHANCE POPS. NEAR-TERM
MESOSCALE GUIDANCE MIXED ON OUTCOMES LIKELY DUE TO THE DIAGNOSIS
OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE WHICH IN SOME CASES IS VERY DRY. YET
UPSTREAM ACTIVITY IS PRESENT. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST ALONG THE
W-SLOPES OF HIGHER TERRAIN WITH OROGRAPHIC TENDENCIES...AND ACROSS
FAR SE NEW ENGLAND WHERE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL FORCING IS MORE
APPARENT.

SW-FLOW CONTINUING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT 20-25 MPH...
BACKING OUT OF THE W/NW GUSTING 20-30 MPH BEHIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...

TONIGHT...
COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES TO SUPPORT MIXING INTO THE NIGHT. WINDS
ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL BE 30-40 KNOTS...EXPECT SOME OF THIS TO MIX
TO THE SURFACE IN GUSTS. BASED ON TEMPERATURES UPSTREAM...EXPECT
LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

TUESDAY...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE WEATHER DRY MUCH OF THE DAY.
ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE RACES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT A CLIPPER LOW THAT MOVES
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES DURING THE AFTERNOON. FORECASTS
FROM THE 00Z MODEL SUITE ARE FARTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY WITH
THE ECMWF FARTHEST SOUTH. ALL MODELS BRING SOME MEASURABLE PCPN
INTO CT BY EVENING...THE GFS COVERS AREAS SOUTH OF THE MASS
PIKE...AND THE NAM HAS MEASURABLE PCPN EVERYWHERE.

TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST RAIN MOST PLACES EXCEPT SNOW IN THE
HILLS. TIMING OF THE PCPN WOULD BE AFTER 21Z. WE HAVE SHIFTED
OUR POPS FARTHER NORTH WITH CHANCE POPS REACHING TO ALONG/SOUTH OF
THE MASS PIKE BY 00Z.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
* MODERATING SPRING-LIKE TEMPS LATE THIS WEEK
* INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP DURING THE EASTER WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH AN ALBERTA
CLIPPER MOVING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. RIDGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WILL BUILD INTO NEW ENGLAND BY WED INTO THURSDAY. WESTERN TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CONUS AS A COLD FRONT REACHING THE NORTHEAST
LATE THUR THROUGH SAT. THIS SYSTEM IS ALSO AIDED BY AN UPPER LOW
CIRCLING AROUND HUDSON BAY WHICH WILL LOWER HEIGHTS IN THE NORTHEAST
BY NEXT WEEKEND.

OVERALL TREND IN THE GUIDANCE HAS LEAD TO A LOWER CONFIDENCE. MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED NORTHWARD WITH THE RUN FOR THE ALBERTA CLIPPER
INCREASING PRECIP FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. 00Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO SHOW HIGH PRESSURE ON WED BUT THE OVERALL COLD FRONT IS SPLIT
AMONGST GUIDANCE. THE GFS REMAINS QUICKER WITH THE SFC FRONT
THROUGH THE NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC FRI COMPARED TO THE OTHER
GUIDANCE. THEREFORE CONTINUED TO BLEND WITH WPC UNTIL THE MODELS
ARE MORE IN AGREEMENT.

DETAILS...

* TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY DIVE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM CANADA AND
MOVE JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. OVERALL GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED TOWARDS WHICH IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT RAIN/SNOW WILL
OCCUR. BELIEVE THAT LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE PIKE HAVE THE
BEST CHANCE TO SEE ANY SNOW ACCUMS ONCE TEMPS DROP DUE TO
WETBULBING. STILL NEED TO WATCH THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY AS THERE IS
STILL SPREAD AMONGST THE MODELS. RIGHT NOW ANTICIPATE A QUICK 1-2
INCHES OF SNOW ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE AND ISLAND.

* WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD BEHIND THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WED INTO WED NIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER SNE. LATEST
TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THURSDAY WILL STAY DRY AS HIGH
PRESSURE IS SLOW TO MOVE OFFSHORE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE WITH MID 40S ON WEDNESDAY AND MID 50S ON THURSDAY AS WAA
INCREASE AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM.

* THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. MODERATE
  CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP OCCURRING.

QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WILL SUPPORT CHANGEABLE TEMPERATURES... MODULATED
BY THE SFC COLD FRONT THU INTO SAT. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL BE ON
THE MILD SIDE IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT FINALLY GETTING ABOVE
FREEZING FOR NEW ENGLAND. IN FACT TEMPERATURES COULD BE THE WARMEST
THEY HAVE BEEN IN OVER FOUR MONTHS FOR THE REGION. HOWEVER AS THE
FRONT PASSES EXPECT TEMPS TO RETURN TO BELOW AVG BY ABOUT 5-15F.

ANTICIPATE THIS COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE AREA EITHER THURSDAY
NIGHT/GFS OR FRIDAY/EC AND CMC. APPEARS THAT A WAVE WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT SOMETIME LATE FRIDAY OR SAT. BECAUSE OF THE TIMING
DIFFERENCE...DECIDED TO BLANKET THIS TIME FRAME WITH CHC POPS AND
HOPEFULLY WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HRS CAN PUT BETTER DETAIL INTO THE
FORECAST. CAN STAY THAT THIS SYSTEM DOES LOOK WARM SO EXPECT PRECIP
TYPE TO BE MORE OF THE RAIN FORM. HOWEVER ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
FRONT COULD SEE SOME WET FLAKES.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS
TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MVFR-IFR WITH -SN. OTHERWISE LOW-END VFR TO MVFR CIGS. COLD FRONT
SWEEPS TERMINALS AROUND MID-AFTERNOON WITH SOME SCT -SHRA. GUSTY
SW-FLOW AHEAD WITH GUSTS 20-25 KTS...BACKING W/NW WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS.

TONIGHT...
VFR. GUSTY WEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT MAY REACH 25-30 KNOTS.

TUESDAY...
VFR. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE ACROSS CT AND RI TOWARD EVENING.

KBOS TAF...-SN AND IFR VSBYS CLEARING BY 14Z. SCT -SHRA/-SHSN
ACTIVITY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...BUT FEEL IMPACTS WILL
BE NO LOWER THAN MVFR.

KBDL TAF...WILL HOLD IMPACTS AT LOW-END VFR. COULD SEE BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. MAY SEE MVFR SOUTH OF
MASS PIKE IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...VFR.

FRIDAY...MVFR IN SHOWERS...COULD SEE IFR CONDITIONS BY FRI EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

10 AM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES.

TODAY...A COLD FRONT CROSSES NEW ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS TOWARD EVENING. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST
TO NEAR 25 KNOTS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. WEST WINDS TRAILING THE
FRONT WILL GUST 25-30 KNOTS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5-7 FEET ON THE
OUTER WATERS AND RHODE ISLANDS/BLOCK ISLAND SOUNDS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONTINUES ON ALL WATERS.

TONIGHT...GUSTY WEST WINDS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. SEAS OF 5-7 FEET
LINGER ON THE OUTER WATERS AND RHODE ISLAND SOUNDS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONTINUES.

TUESDAY...GUSTY WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BRIEFLY OVER THE WATERS. LINGERING SMALL CRAFTS ON THE OUTER
WATERS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY NIGHT...QUICK-MOVING SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN
WATERS. THIS WILL KEEP BOTH SEAS AND WINDS ABOVE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. THERE IS A LOW PROB OF GALES FORCE WINDS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE...ALLOWING
FOR SEAS AND WINDS TO RELAX.

FRIDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS...RESULTING IN
INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS AND SEAS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ231-232.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ230-233-234-
     236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB/DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KALY 301337
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
937 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL WHIP ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME GUSTY WINDS AS WELL.
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TONIGHT...BUT A DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING MORE CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE PRECIPITATION TO MAINLY
AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST
TO BRING FAIR WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 937 AM...APPROACHING COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH BUFFALO
BUT IS NOT YET TO SYRACUSE. AHEAD OF THE FRONT THERE ARE BANDS OF
SNOW AND TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. LATEST HRRR SHOWS
FRONT SHOULD REACH THE HUDSON RIVER BETWEEN 2-3 PM AND PASS EAST
OF OUR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND COUNTIES BY 5 PM.

THIS FRONT WILL TURN THE WINDS TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION. A SECOND
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND TURN THE WINDS MORE
NORTHWESTERLY...AND BRING IN ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR.

CURRENT UPDATE WAS TO TIME BANDS OF SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. NO CHANGE MADE TO MAX TEMPERATURES. MAX TEMPS TODAY MAY BE
TO HIGH OVER THE ADIRONDACKS...WHERE TEMPERATURES MAY NOT MAKE IT
ABOVE FREEZING. ELSEWHERE...THEY LOOK ON TRACK WITH HIGHS IN THE
30S TERRAIN TO 40S TO NEAR 50 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

WINDS STILL EXPECTED TO BE QUITE GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON AFTER THE
FIRST FRONT PASSES. WINDS CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN NEW YORK ARE
GUSTING IN THE 25-35 KNOT RANGE FROM THE WEST.

SKIES ARE NOW CLOUDY ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT A FEW BREAKS THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY EASY OF THE HIGH TERRAIN AS WESTERLY WINDS
DOWNSLOPE INTO THE VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN RESULTING IN A CLEARING
SKY AND A GRADUAL DIMINISHING WIND (AFTER SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE
EVENING)...BUT PROBABLY NOT GO COMPLETELY CALM. NIGHT TIME LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S...EXCEPT UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

A TRAILING PIECE OF NORTHERN STREAM UPPER ENERGY TRACKS SOUTHEAST
OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND TRACKS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TUESDAY...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A PRECIPITATION
SHIELD...POSSIBLY EXTENDING JUST SOUTH OF I-90. CLOUDS WILL EXTEND
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA. WHILE ON PAPER IT LOOKS COLD
ENOUGH FOR THIS PRECIPITATION TO BE SNOW...THAT FACT THAT IT IS
NEARLY APRIL...THE AIR MASS WILL NOT BE ALL THAT COLD...AND MUCH OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL DURING THE DAY ALLOWING SOLAR INFLUENCE
THROUGH THE CLOUDS...PTYPE WILL BE A CHALLENGE. IF THE PRECIPITATION
IS LIGHT ENOUGH (WHICH WE BELIEVE WILL BE THE CASE) WE WOULD
PROBABLY BE LOOKING AT SNOW AT ELEVATIONS HIGHER THAN 1500
FEET...AND RAIN OR RAIN SNOW MIX IN THE VALLEY WITH VERY LITTLE IF
ANY ACCUMULATION. EVEN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACCUMULATIONS (IF
ANY) LOOK LIGHT BUT AGAIN WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR LATER TRENDS TO
SEE IF THERE SIGNALS RAMPING UP THE QPF (WHICH WOULD FAVOR MORE SNOW
OVER RAIN AND OF COURSE MORE ACCUMULATION). WE KEPT POPS IN THE
CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW...EVEN THOUGH SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES
HIGHER CHANCES THAN THAT TO OUR SOUTH.

PROJECT HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS (POSSIBLY
HIGHEST NORTH OF ALBANY WHERE THE CLOUDS WILL BE THE THINNEST). HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 30S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN...IF
PRECIPITATION TURNS OUT TO BE HEAVIER...THESE HIGHS WOULD HAVE TO BE
LOWERED SEVERAL DEGREES.

THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ON TUESDAY EVENING...LEAVING HIGH PRESSURE
TO BUILD BACK IN. THE SKY SHOULD CLEAR AND WITH LIGHT WIND
TEMPERATURES WILL TANK (ESPECIALLY IN ANY AREAS THAT PICK UP EVEN
FRESH COATING OF SNOW). LOWS WILL DIP BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S
ALBANY SOUTHWARD...15-20 FURTHER NORTH AND WEST.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY DECENT DAY (AT LEAST BY THIS SPRING
STANDARDS). BRIGHT SUNSHINE WILL BOLSTER TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 40S IN THE VALLEYS...MID TO UPPER 30S HIGHER TERRAIN.
THESE VALUES ARE STILL A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY REGARDING THE HANDLING OF FAST MOVING
PACIFIC SHORTWAVE ENERGY DURING THE FRI-SAT TIME PERIOD.

THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE DEAMPLIFYING AT THE START OF THE
EXTENDED ACROSS THE U.S...AS THE PERSISTENT POLAR VORTEX RELAXES AND
REORIENTS A BIT FURTHER N AND W ACROSS CANADA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
FAST MOVING PACIFIC SYSTEMS TO TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
U.S. RIDGING AHEAD OF ONE OF THESE DISTURBANCES SHOULD BRING A
PERIOD OF MILDER TEMPERATURES FOR THU-FRI...BEFORE TEMPS TREND BACK
TO BELOW NORMAL BY NEXT WEEKEND AS MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ONCE
AGAIN FALL ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

THU-SAT NT...A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL TRACK EAST FROM
THE WESTERN U.S. DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH A NORTHERN PIECE
TRACKING INTO CENTRAL CANADA...WHILE A SOUTHERN ONE TRACKS INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. FRONTAL SYSTEMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN
ONE SHOULD IMPACT OUR REGION THU...WITH A WARM FRONT
INITIALLY...THEN A COLD FRONT SOMETIME THU NT OR FRI. THIS SHOULD
BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION THU AFTN-EARLY FRI. THEN...AS
THE SOUTHERN PIECE OF ENERGY TRACKS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
EVENTUALLY THE EASTERN U.S...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP
ALONG THE COLD FRONT...AND ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO LINGER/REDEVELOP
LATER FRI AND POSSIBLY INTO SAT. DEPENDING ON HOW THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY AND TIMING OF ASSOCIATED SFC BOUNDARIES TRACK FRI-
SAT...THERE COULD BE ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR P-TYPE ISSUES WITH ANY
LINGERING PRECIP FRIDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...SOME GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT ANY SOUTHERN PIECES OF ENERGY AND WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACK FURTHER SOUTH WITH LESS IMPACTS ON OUR REGION.
SO...AT THIS TIME...GENERALLY HAVE INDICATED ONLY CHC POPS FOR
THIS TIME PERIOD...MAINLY FOR RAIN SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH SOME SNOW
COULD OCCUR FRI NT INTO SAT MORNING DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING
AND TRACK OF SYSTEMS.

SUN...A RETURN TO BELOW...TO POTENTIALLY WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IS
QUITE POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF ANY PREVIOUS SYSTEM. IT SHOULD BE
GENERALLY DRY...ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS OF SNOW OR
RAIN DEPENDING ON INSTABILITY AND OVERALL PROGRESSION OF UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY.

TEMPERATURE WISE...HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND
50S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. HIGHS FRIDAY
GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH UPPER 40S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TEENS TO THE 20S. HIGHS SUNDAY IN
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.


&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 630 AM...THE INITIAL BAND OF SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT WAS ALREADY MOVING THROUGH THE TAF
SITES AND WILL LIKELY BE EAST OF THE REGION BY 12Z (THE START OF
THE TAF PERIOD). EVEN AFTER THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH...THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS (MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS LATER IN THE DAY...WILL
CONTINUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING
THE MID AFTERNOON PERIOD. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THERE WILL STILL
BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALSO AFFECTS
THE REGION.

ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A FEW WEATHER FEATURES AFFECTING THE REGION
DURING THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z TUESDAY...MOISTURE IS LIMITED
AND FORCING IS RELATIVELY WEAK...SO FOR THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF
TAF SITES HAVE GENERALLY FORECAST VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE
TAF PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION IS AT KGFL...WHERE A TEMPO GROUP FOR
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS DUE TO SNOW SHOWERS HAS BEEN FORECAST BETWEEN 12Z
AND 15Z. OTHERWISE...THE THREAT OF SHOWERS IS LOW AND TIMING
DIFFICULT...SO HAVE ONLY INDICATED VCSH DURING THE DAY AT THE
OTHER TAF SITES AND DURING OTHER TIMES OF THE TAFS.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AT 8 TO 12
KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS. AFTER THE WARM FRONT THE WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS WITH
GUSTS OF 18 TO 25 KTS DURING MID/LATE MONDAY MORNING. BY MID
AFTERNOON THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WESTERLY AFTER THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH WITH SPEEDS OF 12 TO 18 KTS AND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30
KTS. AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...THE SPEEDS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH...DROPPING TO 5 TO 10 KTS BY LATE TONIGHT...WITH SOME
GUSTS TO 15 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH TODAY...

A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION EARLY MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS
FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST. A COLD FRONT COULD BRING A FEW MORE
SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK
IN TONIGHT. ANOTHER CLIPPER TRACKING MAINLY SOUTH OF THE REGION
COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 55 PERCENT MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 70 AND 100 PERCENT TONIGHT
AND MONDAY NIGHT.

A SOUTH WIND AVERAGE 10 TO 20 MPH...THEN BECOME WEST TO
NORTHWEST BY WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH BY AFTERNOON. THE WIND WILL
DIMINISHING DOWN 5-15 MPH LATE MONDAY NIGHT...LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TUESDAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WHICH
WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY
IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.


&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...SND
SHORT TERM...SND/HWJIV
LONG TERM...KL/GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...SND



000
FXUS61 KALY 301337
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
937 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL WHIP ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME GUSTY WINDS AS WELL.
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TONIGHT...BUT A DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING MORE CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE PRECIPITATION TO MAINLY
AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST
TO BRING FAIR WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 937 AM...APPROACHING COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH BUFFALO
BUT IS NOT YET TO SYRACUSE. AHEAD OF THE FRONT THERE ARE BANDS OF
SNOW AND TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. LATEST HRRR SHOWS
FRONT SHOULD REACH THE HUDSON RIVER BETWEEN 2-3 PM AND PASS EAST
OF OUR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND COUNTIES BY 5 PM.

THIS FRONT WILL TURN THE WINDS TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION. A SECOND
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND TURN THE WINDS MORE
NORTHWESTERLY...AND BRING IN ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR.

CURRENT UPDATE WAS TO TIME BANDS OF SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. NO CHANGE MADE TO MAX TEMPERATURES. MAX TEMPS TODAY MAY BE
TO HIGH OVER THE ADIRONDACKS...WHERE TEMPERATURES MAY NOT MAKE IT
ABOVE FREEZING. ELSEWHERE...THEY LOOK ON TRACK WITH HIGHS IN THE
30S TERRAIN TO 40S TO NEAR 50 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

WINDS STILL EXPECTED TO BE QUITE GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON AFTER THE
FIRST FRONT PASSES. WINDS CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN NEW YORK ARE
GUSTING IN THE 25-35 KNOT RANGE FROM THE WEST.

SKIES ARE NOW CLOUDY ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT A FEW BREAKS THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY EASY OF THE HIGH TERRAIN AS WESTERLY WINDS
DOWNSLOPE INTO THE VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN RESULTING IN A CLEARING
SKY AND A GRADUAL DIMINISHING WIND (AFTER SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE
EVENING)...BUT PROBABLY NOT GO COMPLETELY CALM. NIGHT TIME LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S...EXCEPT UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

A TRAILING PIECE OF NORTHERN STREAM UPPER ENERGY TRACKS SOUTHEAST
OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND TRACKS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TUESDAY...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A PRECIPITATION
SHIELD...POSSIBLY EXTENDING JUST SOUTH OF I-90. CLOUDS WILL EXTEND
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA. WHILE ON PAPER IT LOOKS COLD
ENOUGH FOR THIS PRECIPITATION TO BE SNOW...THAT FACT THAT IT IS
NEARLY APRIL...THE AIR MASS WILL NOT BE ALL THAT COLD...AND MUCH OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL DURING THE DAY ALLOWING SOLAR INFLUENCE
THROUGH THE CLOUDS...PTYPE WILL BE A CHALLENGE. IF THE PRECIPITATION
IS LIGHT ENOUGH (WHICH WE BELIEVE WILL BE THE CASE) WE WOULD
PROBABLY BE LOOKING AT SNOW AT ELEVATIONS HIGHER THAN 1500
FEET...AND RAIN OR RAIN SNOW MIX IN THE VALLEY WITH VERY LITTLE IF
ANY ACCUMULATION. EVEN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACCUMULATIONS (IF
ANY) LOOK LIGHT BUT AGAIN WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR LATER TRENDS TO
SEE IF THERE SIGNALS RAMPING UP THE QPF (WHICH WOULD FAVOR MORE SNOW
OVER RAIN AND OF COURSE MORE ACCUMULATION). WE KEPT POPS IN THE
CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW...EVEN THOUGH SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES
HIGHER CHANCES THAN THAT TO OUR SOUTH.

PROJECT HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS (POSSIBLY
HIGHEST NORTH OF ALBANY WHERE THE CLOUDS WILL BE THE THINNEST). HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 30S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN...IF
PRECIPITATION TURNS OUT TO BE HEAVIER...THESE HIGHS WOULD HAVE TO BE
LOWERED SEVERAL DEGREES.

THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ON TUESDAY EVENING...LEAVING HIGH PRESSURE
TO BUILD BACK IN. THE SKY SHOULD CLEAR AND WITH LIGHT WIND
TEMPERATURES WILL TANK (ESPECIALLY IN ANY AREAS THAT PICK UP EVEN
FRESH COATING OF SNOW). LOWS WILL DIP BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S
ALBANY SOUTHWARD...15-20 FURTHER NORTH AND WEST.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY DECENT DAY (AT LEAST BY THIS SPRING
STANDARDS). BRIGHT SUNSHINE WILL BOLSTER TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 40S IN THE VALLEYS...MID TO UPPER 30S HIGHER TERRAIN.
THESE VALUES ARE STILL A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY REGARDING THE HANDLING OF FAST MOVING
PACIFIC SHORTWAVE ENERGY DURING THE FRI-SAT TIME PERIOD.

THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE DEAMPLIFYING AT THE START OF THE
EXTENDED ACROSS THE U.S...AS THE PERSISTENT POLAR VORTEX RELAXES AND
REORIENTS A BIT FURTHER N AND W ACROSS CANADA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
FAST MOVING PACIFIC SYSTEMS TO TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
U.S. RIDGING AHEAD OF ONE OF THESE DISTURBANCES SHOULD BRING A
PERIOD OF MILDER TEMPERATURES FOR THU-FRI...BEFORE TEMPS TREND BACK
TO BELOW NORMAL BY NEXT WEEKEND AS MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ONCE
AGAIN FALL ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

THU-SAT NT...A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL TRACK EAST FROM
THE WESTERN U.S. DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH A NORTHERN PIECE
TRACKING INTO CENTRAL CANADA...WHILE A SOUTHERN ONE TRACKS INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. FRONTAL SYSTEMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN
ONE SHOULD IMPACT OUR REGION THU...WITH A WARM FRONT
INITIALLY...THEN A COLD FRONT SOMETIME THU NT OR FRI. THIS SHOULD
BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION THU AFTN-EARLY FRI. THEN...AS
THE SOUTHERN PIECE OF ENERGY TRACKS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
EVENTUALLY THE EASTERN U.S...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP
ALONG THE COLD FRONT...AND ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO LINGER/REDEVELOP
LATER FRI AND POSSIBLY INTO SAT. DEPENDING ON HOW THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY AND TIMING OF ASSOCIATED SFC BOUNDARIES TRACK FRI-
SAT...THERE COULD BE ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR P-TYPE ISSUES WITH ANY
LINGERING PRECIP FRIDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...SOME GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT ANY SOUTHERN PIECES OF ENERGY AND WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACK FURTHER SOUTH WITH LESS IMPACTS ON OUR REGION.
SO...AT THIS TIME...GENERALLY HAVE INDICATED ONLY CHC POPS FOR
THIS TIME PERIOD...MAINLY FOR RAIN SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH SOME SNOW
COULD OCCUR FRI NT INTO SAT MORNING DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING
AND TRACK OF SYSTEMS.

SUN...A RETURN TO BELOW...TO POTENTIALLY WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IS
QUITE POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF ANY PREVIOUS SYSTEM. IT SHOULD BE
GENERALLY DRY...ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS OF SNOW OR
RAIN DEPENDING ON INSTABILITY AND OVERALL PROGRESSION OF UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY.

TEMPERATURE WISE...HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND
50S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. HIGHS FRIDAY
GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH UPPER 40S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TEENS TO THE 20S. HIGHS SUNDAY IN
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.


&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 630 AM...THE INITIAL BAND OF SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT WAS ALREADY MOVING THROUGH THE TAF
SITES AND WILL LIKELY BE EAST OF THE REGION BY 12Z (THE START OF
THE TAF PERIOD). EVEN AFTER THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH...THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS (MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS LATER IN THE DAY...WILL
CONTINUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING
THE MID AFTERNOON PERIOD. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THERE WILL STILL
BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALSO AFFECTS
THE REGION.

ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A FEW WEATHER FEATURES AFFECTING THE REGION
DURING THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z TUESDAY...MOISTURE IS LIMITED
AND FORCING IS RELATIVELY WEAK...SO FOR THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF
TAF SITES HAVE GENERALLY FORECAST VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE
TAF PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION IS AT KGFL...WHERE A TEMPO GROUP FOR
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS DUE TO SNOW SHOWERS HAS BEEN FORECAST BETWEEN 12Z
AND 15Z. OTHERWISE...THE THREAT OF SHOWERS IS LOW AND TIMING
DIFFICULT...SO HAVE ONLY INDICATED VCSH DURING THE DAY AT THE
OTHER TAF SITES AND DURING OTHER TIMES OF THE TAFS.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AT 8 TO 12
KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS. AFTER THE WARM FRONT THE WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS WITH
GUSTS OF 18 TO 25 KTS DURING MID/LATE MONDAY MORNING. BY MID
AFTERNOON THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WESTERLY AFTER THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH WITH SPEEDS OF 12 TO 18 KTS AND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30
KTS. AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...THE SPEEDS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH...DROPPING TO 5 TO 10 KTS BY LATE TONIGHT...WITH SOME
GUSTS TO 15 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH TODAY...

A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION EARLY MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS
FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST. A COLD FRONT COULD BRING A FEW MORE
SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK
IN TONIGHT. ANOTHER CLIPPER TRACKING MAINLY SOUTH OF THE REGION
COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 55 PERCENT MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 70 AND 100 PERCENT TONIGHT
AND MONDAY NIGHT.

A SOUTH WIND AVERAGE 10 TO 20 MPH...THEN BECOME WEST TO
NORTHWEST BY WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH BY AFTERNOON. THE WIND WILL
DIMINISHING DOWN 5-15 MPH LATE MONDAY NIGHT...LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TUESDAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WHICH
WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY
IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.


&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...SND
SHORT TERM...SND/HWJIV
LONG TERM...KL/GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...SND



000
FXUS61 KALY 301337
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
937 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL WHIP ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME GUSTY WINDS AS WELL.
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TONIGHT...BUT A DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING MORE CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE PRECIPITATION TO MAINLY
AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST
TO BRING FAIR WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 937 AM...APPROACHING COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH BUFFALO
BUT IS NOT YET TO SYRACUSE. AHEAD OF THE FRONT THERE ARE BANDS OF
SNOW AND TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. LATEST HRRR SHOWS
FRONT SHOULD REACH THE HUDSON RIVER BETWEEN 2-3 PM AND PASS EAST
OF OUR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND COUNTIES BY 5 PM.

THIS FRONT WILL TURN THE WINDS TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION. A SECOND
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND TURN THE WINDS MORE
NORTHWESTERLY...AND BRING IN ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR.

CURRENT UPDATE WAS TO TIME BANDS OF SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. NO CHANGE MADE TO MAX TEMPERATURES. MAX TEMPS TODAY MAY BE
TO HIGH OVER THE ADIRONDACKS...WHERE TEMPERATURES MAY NOT MAKE IT
ABOVE FREEZING. ELSEWHERE...THEY LOOK ON TRACK WITH HIGHS IN THE
30S TERRAIN TO 40S TO NEAR 50 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

WINDS STILL EXPECTED TO BE QUITE GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON AFTER THE
FIRST FRONT PASSES. WINDS CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN NEW YORK ARE
GUSTING IN THE 25-35 KNOT RANGE FROM THE WEST.

SKIES ARE NOW CLOUDY ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT A FEW BREAKS THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY EASY OF THE HIGH TERRAIN AS WESTERLY WINDS
DOWNSLOPE INTO THE VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN RESULTING IN A CLEARING
SKY AND A GRADUAL DIMINISHING WIND (AFTER SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE
EVENING)...BUT PROBABLY NOT GO COMPLETELY CALM. NIGHT TIME LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S...EXCEPT UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

A TRAILING PIECE OF NORTHERN STREAM UPPER ENERGY TRACKS SOUTHEAST
OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND TRACKS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TUESDAY...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A PRECIPITATION
SHIELD...POSSIBLY EXTENDING JUST SOUTH OF I-90. CLOUDS WILL EXTEND
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA. WHILE ON PAPER IT LOOKS COLD
ENOUGH FOR THIS PRECIPITATION TO BE SNOW...THAT FACT THAT IT IS
NEARLY APRIL...THE AIR MASS WILL NOT BE ALL THAT COLD...AND MUCH OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL DURING THE DAY ALLOWING SOLAR INFLUENCE
THROUGH THE CLOUDS...PTYPE WILL BE A CHALLENGE. IF THE PRECIPITATION
IS LIGHT ENOUGH (WHICH WE BELIEVE WILL BE THE CASE) WE WOULD
PROBABLY BE LOOKING AT SNOW AT ELEVATIONS HIGHER THAN 1500
FEET...AND RAIN OR RAIN SNOW MIX IN THE VALLEY WITH VERY LITTLE IF
ANY ACCUMULATION. EVEN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACCUMULATIONS (IF
ANY) LOOK LIGHT BUT AGAIN WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR LATER TRENDS TO
SEE IF THERE SIGNALS RAMPING UP THE QPF (WHICH WOULD FAVOR MORE SNOW
OVER RAIN AND OF COURSE MORE ACCUMULATION). WE KEPT POPS IN THE
CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW...EVEN THOUGH SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES
HIGHER CHANCES THAN THAT TO OUR SOUTH.

PROJECT HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS (POSSIBLY
HIGHEST NORTH OF ALBANY WHERE THE CLOUDS WILL BE THE THINNEST). HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 30S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN...IF
PRECIPITATION TURNS OUT TO BE HEAVIER...THESE HIGHS WOULD HAVE TO BE
LOWERED SEVERAL DEGREES.

THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ON TUESDAY EVENING...LEAVING HIGH PRESSURE
TO BUILD BACK IN. THE SKY SHOULD CLEAR AND WITH LIGHT WIND
TEMPERATURES WILL TANK (ESPECIALLY IN ANY AREAS THAT PICK UP EVEN
FRESH COATING OF SNOW). LOWS WILL DIP BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S
ALBANY SOUTHWARD...15-20 FURTHER NORTH AND WEST.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY DECENT DAY (AT LEAST BY THIS SPRING
STANDARDS). BRIGHT SUNSHINE WILL BOLSTER TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 40S IN THE VALLEYS...MID TO UPPER 30S HIGHER TERRAIN.
THESE VALUES ARE STILL A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY REGARDING THE HANDLING OF FAST MOVING
PACIFIC SHORTWAVE ENERGY DURING THE FRI-SAT TIME PERIOD.

THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE DEAMPLIFYING AT THE START OF THE
EXTENDED ACROSS THE U.S...AS THE PERSISTENT POLAR VORTEX RELAXES AND
REORIENTS A BIT FURTHER N AND W ACROSS CANADA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
FAST MOVING PACIFIC SYSTEMS TO TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
U.S. RIDGING AHEAD OF ONE OF THESE DISTURBANCES SHOULD BRING A
PERIOD OF MILDER TEMPERATURES FOR THU-FRI...BEFORE TEMPS TREND BACK
TO BELOW NORMAL BY NEXT WEEKEND AS MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ONCE
AGAIN FALL ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

THU-SAT NT...A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL TRACK EAST FROM
THE WESTERN U.S. DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH A NORTHERN PIECE
TRACKING INTO CENTRAL CANADA...WHILE A SOUTHERN ONE TRACKS INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. FRONTAL SYSTEMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN
ONE SHOULD IMPACT OUR REGION THU...WITH A WARM FRONT
INITIALLY...THEN A COLD FRONT SOMETIME THU NT OR FRI. THIS SHOULD
BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION THU AFTN-EARLY FRI. THEN...AS
THE SOUTHERN PIECE OF ENERGY TRACKS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
EVENTUALLY THE EASTERN U.S...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP
ALONG THE COLD FRONT...AND ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO LINGER/REDEVELOP
LATER FRI AND POSSIBLY INTO SAT. DEPENDING ON HOW THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY AND TIMING OF ASSOCIATED SFC BOUNDARIES TRACK FRI-
SAT...THERE COULD BE ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR P-TYPE ISSUES WITH ANY
LINGERING PRECIP FRIDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...SOME GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT ANY SOUTHERN PIECES OF ENERGY AND WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACK FURTHER SOUTH WITH LESS IMPACTS ON OUR REGION.
SO...AT THIS TIME...GENERALLY HAVE INDICATED ONLY CHC POPS FOR
THIS TIME PERIOD...MAINLY FOR RAIN SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH SOME SNOW
COULD OCCUR FRI NT INTO SAT MORNING DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING
AND TRACK OF SYSTEMS.

SUN...A RETURN TO BELOW...TO POTENTIALLY WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IS
QUITE POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF ANY PREVIOUS SYSTEM. IT SHOULD BE
GENERALLY DRY...ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS OF SNOW OR
RAIN DEPENDING ON INSTABILITY AND OVERALL PROGRESSION OF UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY.

TEMPERATURE WISE...HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND
50S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. HIGHS FRIDAY
GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH UPPER 40S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TEENS TO THE 20S. HIGHS SUNDAY IN
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.


&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 630 AM...THE INITIAL BAND OF SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT WAS ALREADY MOVING THROUGH THE TAF
SITES AND WILL LIKELY BE EAST OF THE REGION BY 12Z (THE START OF
THE TAF PERIOD). EVEN AFTER THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH...THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS (MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS LATER IN THE DAY...WILL
CONTINUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING
THE MID AFTERNOON PERIOD. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THERE WILL STILL
BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALSO AFFECTS
THE REGION.

ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A FEW WEATHER FEATURES AFFECTING THE REGION
DURING THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z TUESDAY...MOISTURE IS LIMITED
AND FORCING IS RELATIVELY WEAK...SO FOR THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF
TAF SITES HAVE GENERALLY FORECAST VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE
TAF PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION IS AT KGFL...WHERE A TEMPO GROUP FOR
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS DUE TO SNOW SHOWERS HAS BEEN FORECAST BETWEEN 12Z
AND 15Z. OTHERWISE...THE THREAT OF SHOWERS IS LOW AND TIMING
DIFFICULT...SO HAVE ONLY INDICATED VCSH DURING THE DAY AT THE
OTHER TAF SITES AND DURING OTHER TIMES OF THE TAFS.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AT 8 TO 12
KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS. AFTER THE WARM FRONT THE WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS WITH
GUSTS OF 18 TO 25 KTS DURING MID/LATE MONDAY MORNING. BY MID
AFTERNOON THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WESTERLY AFTER THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH WITH SPEEDS OF 12 TO 18 KTS AND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30
KTS. AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...THE SPEEDS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH...DROPPING TO 5 TO 10 KTS BY LATE TONIGHT...WITH SOME
GUSTS TO 15 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH TODAY...

A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION EARLY MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS
FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST. A COLD FRONT COULD BRING A FEW MORE
SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK
IN TONIGHT. ANOTHER CLIPPER TRACKING MAINLY SOUTH OF THE REGION
COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 55 PERCENT MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 70 AND 100 PERCENT TONIGHT
AND MONDAY NIGHT.

A SOUTH WIND AVERAGE 10 TO 20 MPH...THEN BECOME WEST TO
NORTHWEST BY WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH BY AFTERNOON. THE WIND WILL
DIMINISHING DOWN 5-15 MPH LATE MONDAY NIGHT...LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TUESDAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WHICH
WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY
IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.


&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...SND
SHORT TERM...SND/HWJIV
LONG TERM...KL/GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...SND



000
FXUS61 KALY 301337
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
937 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL WHIP ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME GUSTY WINDS AS WELL.
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TONIGHT...BUT A DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING MORE CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE PRECIPITATION TO MAINLY
AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST
TO BRING FAIR WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 937 AM...APPROACHING COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH BUFFALO
BUT IS NOT YET TO SYRACUSE. AHEAD OF THE FRONT THERE ARE BANDS OF
SNOW AND TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. LATEST HRRR SHOWS
FRONT SHOULD REACH THE HUDSON RIVER BETWEEN 2-3 PM AND PASS EAST
OF OUR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND COUNTIES BY 5 PM.

THIS FRONT WILL TURN THE WINDS TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION. A SECOND
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND TURN THE WINDS MORE
NORTHWESTERLY...AND BRING IN ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR.

CURRENT UPDATE WAS TO TIME BANDS OF SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. NO CHANGE MADE TO MAX TEMPERATURES. MAX TEMPS TODAY MAY BE
TO HIGH OVER THE ADIRONDACKS...WHERE TEMPERATURES MAY NOT MAKE IT
ABOVE FREEZING. ELSEWHERE...THEY LOOK ON TRACK WITH HIGHS IN THE
30S TERRAIN TO 40S TO NEAR 50 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

WINDS STILL EXPECTED TO BE QUITE GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON AFTER THE
FIRST FRONT PASSES. WINDS CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN NEW YORK ARE
GUSTING IN THE 25-35 KNOT RANGE FROM THE WEST.

SKIES ARE NOW CLOUDY ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT A FEW BREAKS THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY EASY OF THE HIGH TERRAIN AS WESTERLY WINDS
DOWNSLOPE INTO THE VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN RESULTING IN A CLEARING
SKY AND A GRADUAL DIMINISHING WIND (AFTER SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE
EVENING)...BUT PROBABLY NOT GO COMPLETELY CALM. NIGHT TIME LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S...EXCEPT UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

A TRAILING PIECE OF NORTHERN STREAM UPPER ENERGY TRACKS SOUTHEAST
OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND TRACKS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TUESDAY...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A PRECIPITATION
SHIELD...POSSIBLY EXTENDING JUST SOUTH OF I-90. CLOUDS WILL EXTEND
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA. WHILE ON PAPER IT LOOKS COLD
ENOUGH FOR THIS PRECIPITATION TO BE SNOW...THAT FACT THAT IT IS
NEARLY APRIL...THE AIR MASS WILL NOT BE ALL THAT COLD...AND MUCH OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL DURING THE DAY ALLOWING SOLAR INFLUENCE
THROUGH THE CLOUDS...PTYPE WILL BE A CHALLENGE. IF THE PRECIPITATION
IS LIGHT ENOUGH (WHICH WE BELIEVE WILL BE THE CASE) WE WOULD
PROBABLY BE LOOKING AT SNOW AT ELEVATIONS HIGHER THAN 1500
FEET...AND RAIN OR RAIN SNOW MIX IN THE VALLEY WITH VERY LITTLE IF
ANY ACCUMULATION. EVEN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACCUMULATIONS (IF
ANY) LOOK LIGHT BUT AGAIN WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR LATER TRENDS TO
SEE IF THERE SIGNALS RAMPING UP THE QPF (WHICH WOULD FAVOR MORE SNOW
OVER RAIN AND OF COURSE MORE ACCUMULATION). WE KEPT POPS IN THE
CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW...EVEN THOUGH SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES
HIGHER CHANCES THAN THAT TO OUR SOUTH.

PROJECT HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS (POSSIBLY
HIGHEST NORTH OF ALBANY WHERE THE CLOUDS WILL BE THE THINNEST). HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 30S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN...IF
PRECIPITATION TURNS OUT TO BE HEAVIER...THESE HIGHS WOULD HAVE TO BE
LOWERED SEVERAL DEGREES.

THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ON TUESDAY EVENING...LEAVING HIGH PRESSURE
TO BUILD BACK IN. THE SKY SHOULD CLEAR AND WITH LIGHT WIND
TEMPERATURES WILL TANK (ESPECIALLY IN ANY AREAS THAT PICK UP EVEN
FRESH COATING OF SNOW). LOWS WILL DIP BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S
ALBANY SOUTHWARD...15-20 FURTHER NORTH AND WEST.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY DECENT DAY (AT LEAST BY THIS SPRING
STANDARDS). BRIGHT SUNSHINE WILL BOLSTER TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 40S IN THE VALLEYS...MID TO UPPER 30S HIGHER TERRAIN.
THESE VALUES ARE STILL A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY REGARDING THE HANDLING OF FAST MOVING
PACIFIC SHORTWAVE ENERGY DURING THE FRI-SAT TIME PERIOD.

THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE DEAMPLIFYING AT THE START OF THE
EXTENDED ACROSS THE U.S...AS THE PERSISTENT POLAR VORTEX RELAXES AND
REORIENTS A BIT FURTHER N AND W ACROSS CANADA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
FAST MOVING PACIFIC SYSTEMS TO TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
U.S. RIDGING AHEAD OF ONE OF THESE DISTURBANCES SHOULD BRING A
PERIOD OF MILDER TEMPERATURES FOR THU-FRI...BEFORE TEMPS TREND BACK
TO BELOW NORMAL BY NEXT WEEKEND AS MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ONCE
AGAIN FALL ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

THU-SAT NT...A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL TRACK EAST FROM
THE WESTERN U.S. DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH A NORTHERN PIECE
TRACKING INTO CENTRAL CANADA...WHILE A SOUTHERN ONE TRACKS INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. FRONTAL SYSTEMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN
ONE SHOULD IMPACT OUR REGION THU...WITH A WARM FRONT
INITIALLY...THEN A COLD FRONT SOMETIME THU NT OR FRI. THIS SHOULD
BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION THU AFTN-EARLY FRI. THEN...AS
THE SOUTHERN PIECE OF ENERGY TRACKS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
EVENTUALLY THE EASTERN U.S...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP
ALONG THE COLD FRONT...AND ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO LINGER/REDEVELOP
LATER FRI AND POSSIBLY INTO SAT. DEPENDING ON HOW THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY AND TIMING OF ASSOCIATED SFC BOUNDARIES TRACK FRI-
SAT...THERE COULD BE ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR P-TYPE ISSUES WITH ANY
LINGERING PRECIP FRIDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...SOME GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT ANY SOUTHERN PIECES OF ENERGY AND WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACK FURTHER SOUTH WITH LESS IMPACTS ON OUR REGION.
SO...AT THIS TIME...GENERALLY HAVE INDICATED ONLY CHC POPS FOR
THIS TIME PERIOD...MAINLY FOR RAIN SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH SOME SNOW
COULD OCCUR FRI NT INTO SAT MORNING DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING
AND TRACK OF SYSTEMS.

SUN...A RETURN TO BELOW...TO POTENTIALLY WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IS
QUITE POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF ANY PREVIOUS SYSTEM. IT SHOULD BE
GENERALLY DRY...ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS OF SNOW OR
RAIN DEPENDING ON INSTABILITY AND OVERALL PROGRESSION OF UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY.

TEMPERATURE WISE...HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND
50S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. HIGHS FRIDAY
GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH UPPER 40S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TEENS TO THE 20S. HIGHS SUNDAY IN
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.


&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 630 AM...THE INITIAL BAND OF SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT WAS ALREADY MOVING THROUGH THE TAF
SITES AND WILL LIKELY BE EAST OF THE REGION BY 12Z (THE START OF
THE TAF PERIOD). EVEN AFTER THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH...THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS (MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS LATER IN THE DAY...WILL
CONTINUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING
THE MID AFTERNOON PERIOD. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THERE WILL STILL
BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALSO AFFECTS
THE REGION.

ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A FEW WEATHER FEATURES AFFECTING THE REGION
DURING THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z TUESDAY...MOISTURE IS LIMITED
AND FORCING IS RELATIVELY WEAK...SO FOR THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF
TAF SITES HAVE GENERALLY FORECAST VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE
TAF PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION IS AT KGFL...WHERE A TEMPO GROUP FOR
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS DUE TO SNOW SHOWERS HAS BEEN FORECAST BETWEEN 12Z
AND 15Z. OTHERWISE...THE THREAT OF SHOWERS IS LOW AND TIMING
DIFFICULT...SO HAVE ONLY INDICATED VCSH DURING THE DAY AT THE
OTHER TAF SITES AND DURING OTHER TIMES OF THE TAFS.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AT 8 TO 12
KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS. AFTER THE WARM FRONT THE WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS WITH
GUSTS OF 18 TO 25 KTS DURING MID/LATE MONDAY MORNING. BY MID
AFTERNOON THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WESTERLY AFTER THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH WITH SPEEDS OF 12 TO 18 KTS AND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30
KTS. AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...THE SPEEDS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH...DROPPING TO 5 TO 10 KTS BY LATE TONIGHT...WITH SOME
GUSTS TO 15 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH TODAY...

A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION EARLY MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS
FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST. A COLD FRONT COULD BRING A FEW MORE
SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK
IN TONIGHT. ANOTHER CLIPPER TRACKING MAINLY SOUTH OF THE REGION
COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 55 PERCENT MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 70 AND 100 PERCENT TONIGHT
AND MONDAY NIGHT.

A SOUTH WIND AVERAGE 10 TO 20 MPH...THEN BECOME WEST TO
NORTHWEST BY WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH BY AFTERNOON. THE WIND WILL
DIMINISHING DOWN 5-15 MPH LATE MONDAY NIGHT...LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TUESDAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WHICH
WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY
IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.


&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...SND
SHORT TERM...SND/HWJIV
LONG TERM...KL/GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...SND



000
FXUS61 KALY 301337
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
937 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL WHIP ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME GUSTY WINDS AS WELL.
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TONIGHT...BUT A DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING MORE CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE PRECIPITATION TO MAINLY
AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST
TO BRING FAIR WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 937 AM...APPROACHING COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH BUFFALO
BUT IS NOT YET TO SYRACUSE. AHEAD OF THE FRONT THERE ARE BANDS OF
SNOW AND TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. LATEST HRRR SHOWS
FRONT SHOULD REACH THE HUDSON RIVER BETWEEN 2-3 PM AND PASS EAST
OF OUR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND COUNTIES BY 5 PM.

THIS FRONT WILL TURN THE WINDS TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION. A SECOND
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND TURN THE WINDS MORE
NORTHWESTERLY...AND BRING IN ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR.

CURRENT UPDATE WAS TO TIME BANDS OF SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. NO CHANGE MADE TO MAX TEMPERATURES. MAX TEMPS TODAY MAY BE
TO HIGH OVER THE ADIRONDACKS...WHERE TEMPERATURES MAY NOT MAKE IT
ABOVE FREEZING. ELSEWHERE...THEY LOOK ON TRACK WITH HIGHS IN THE
30S TERRAIN TO 40S TO NEAR 50 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

WINDS STILL EXPECTED TO BE QUITE GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON AFTER THE
FIRST FRONT PASSES. WINDS CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN NEW YORK ARE
GUSTING IN THE 25-35 KNOT RANGE FROM THE WEST.

SKIES ARE NOW CLOUDY ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT A FEW BREAKS THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY EASY OF THE HIGH TERRAIN AS WESTERLY WINDS
DOWNSLOPE INTO THE VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN RESULTING IN A CLEARING
SKY AND A GRADUAL DIMINISHING WIND (AFTER SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE
EVENING)...BUT PROBABLY NOT GO COMPLETELY CALM. NIGHT TIME LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S...EXCEPT UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

A TRAILING PIECE OF NORTHERN STREAM UPPER ENERGY TRACKS SOUTHEAST
OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND TRACKS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TUESDAY...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A PRECIPITATION
SHIELD...POSSIBLY EXTENDING JUST SOUTH OF I-90. CLOUDS WILL EXTEND
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA. WHILE ON PAPER IT LOOKS COLD
ENOUGH FOR THIS PRECIPITATION TO BE SNOW...THAT FACT THAT IT IS
NEARLY APRIL...THE AIR MASS WILL NOT BE ALL THAT COLD...AND MUCH OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL DURING THE DAY ALLOWING SOLAR INFLUENCE
THROUGH THE CLOUDS...PTYPE WILL BE A CHALLENGE. IF THE PRECIPITATION
IS LIGHT ENOUGH (WHICH WE BELIEVE WILL BE THE CASE) WE WOULD
PROBABLY BE LOOKING AT SNOW AT ELEVATIONS HIGHER THAN 1500
FEET...AND RAIN OR RAIN SNOW MIX IN THE VALLEY WITH VERY LITTLE IF
ANY ACCUMULATION. EVEN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACCUMULATIONS (IF
ANY) LOOK LIGHT BUT AGAIN WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR LATER TRENDS TO
SEE IF THERE SIGNALS RAMPING UP THE QPF (WHICH WOULD FAVOR MORE SNOW
OVER RAIN AND OF COURSE MORE ACCUMULATION). WE KEPT POPS IN THE
CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW...EVEN THOUGH SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES
HIGHER CHANCES THAN THAT TO OUR SOUTH.

PROJECT HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS (POSSIBLY
HIGHEST NORTH OF ALBANY WHERE THE CLOUDS WILL BE THE THINNEST). HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 30S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN...IF
PRECIPITATION TURNS OUT TO BE HEAVIER...THESE HIGHS WOULD HAVE TO BE
LOWERED SEVERAL DEGREES.

THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ON TUESDAY EVENING...LEAVING HIGH PRESSURE
TO BUILD BACK IN. THE SKY SHOULD CLEAR AND WITH LIGHT WIND
TEMPERATURES WILL TANK (ESPECIALLY IN ANY AREAS THAT PICK UP EVEN
FRESH COATING OF SNOW). LOWS WILL DIP BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S
ALBANY SOUTHWARD...15-20 FURTHER NORTH AND WEST.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY DECENT DAY (AT LEAST BY THIS SPRING
STANDARDS). BRIGHT SUNSHINE WILL BOLSTER TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 40S IN THE VALLEYS...MID TO UPPER 30S HIGHER TERRAIN.
THESE VALUES ARE STILL A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY REGARDING THE HANDLING OF FAST MOVING
PACIFIC SHORTWAVE ENERGY DURING THE FRI-SAT TIME PERIOD.

THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE DEAMPLIFYING AT THE START OF THE
EXTENDED ACROSS THE U.S...AS THE PERSISTENT POLAR VORTEX RELAXES AND
REORIENTS A BIT FURTHER N AND W ACROSS CANADA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
FAST MOVING PACIFIC SYSTEMS TO TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
U.S. RIDGING AHEAD OF ONE OF THESE DISTURBANCES SHOULD BRING A
PERIOD OF MILDER TEMPERATURES FOR THU-FRI...BEFORE TEMPS TREND BACK
TO BELOW NORMAL BY NEXT WEEKEND AS MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ONCE
AGAIN FALL ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

THU-SAT NT...A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL TRACK EAST FROM
THE WESTERN U.S. DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH A NORTHERN PIECE
TRACKING INTO CENTRAL CANADA...WHILE A SOUTHERN ONE TRACKS INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. FRONTAL SYSTEMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN
ONE SHOULD IMPACT OUR REGION THU...WITH A WARM FRONT
INITIALLY...THEN A COLD FRONT SOMETIME THU NT OR FRI. THIS SHOULD
BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION THU AFTN-EARLY FRI. THEN...AS
THE SOUTHERN PIECE OF ENERGY TRACKS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
EVENTUALLY THE EASTERN U.S...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP
ALONG THE COLD FRONT...AND ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO LINGER/REDEVELOP
LATER FRI AND POSSIBLY INTO SAT. DEPENDING ON HOW THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY AND TIMING OF ASSOCIATED SFC BOUNDARIES TRACK FRI-
SAT...THERE COULD BE ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR P-TYPE ISSUES WITH ANY
LINGERING PRECIP FRIDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...SOME GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT ANY SOUTHERN PIECES OF ENERGY AND WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACK FURTHER SOUTH WITH LESS IMPACTS ON OUR REGION.
SO...AT THIS TIME...GENERALLY HAVE INDICATED ONLY CHC POPS FOR
THIS TIME PERIOD...MAINLY FOR RAIN SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH SOME SNOW
COULD OCCUR FRI NT INTO SAT MORNING DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING
AND TRACK OF SYSTEMS.

SUN...A RETURN TO BELOW...TO POTENTIALLY WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IS
QUITE POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF ANY PREVIOUS SYSTEM. IT SHOULD BE
GENERALLY DRY...ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS OF SNOW OR
RAIN DEPENDING ON INSTABILITY AND OVERALL PROGRESSION OF UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY.

TEMPERATURE WISE...HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND
50S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. HIGHS FRIDAY
GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH UPPER 40S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TEENS TO THE 20S. HIGHS SUNDAY IN
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.


&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 630 AM...THE INITIAL BAND OF SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT WAS ALREADY MOVING THROUGH THE TAF
SITES AND WILL LIKELY BE EAST OF THE REGION BY 12Z (THE START OF
THE TAF PERIOD). EVEN AFTER THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH...THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS (MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS LATER IN THE DAY...WILL
CONTINUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING
THE MID AFTERNOON PERIOD. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THERE WILL STILL
BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALSO AFFECTS
THE REGION.

ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A FEW WEATHER FEATURES AFFECTING THE REGION
DURING THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z TUESDAY...MOISTURE IS LIMITED
AND FORCING IS RELATIVELY WEAK...SO FOR THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF
TAF SITES HAVE GENERALLY FORECAST VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE
TAF PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION IS AT KGFL...WHERE A TEMPO GROUP FOR
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS DUE TO SNOW SHOWERS HAS BEEN FORECAST BETWEEN 12Z
AND 15Z. OTHERWISE...THE THREAT OF SHOWERS IS LOW AND TIMING
DIFFICULT...SO HAVE ONLY INDICATED VCSH DURING THE DAY AT THE
OTHER TAF SITES AND DURING OTHER TIMES OF THE TAFS.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AT 8 TO 12
KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS. AFTER THE WARM FRONT THE WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS WITH
GUSTS OF 18 TO 25 KTS DURING MID/LATE MONDAY MORNING. BY MID
AFTERNOON THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WESTERLY AFTER THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH WITH SPEEDS OF 12 TO 18 KTS AND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30
KTS. AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...THE SPEEDS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH...DROPPING TO 5 TO 10 KTS BY LATE TONIGHT...WITH SOME
GUSTS TO 15 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH TODAY...

A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION EARLY MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS
FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST. A COLD FRONT COULD BRING A FEW MORE
SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK
IN TONIGHT. ANOTHER CLIPPER TRACKING MAINLY SOUTH OF THE REGION
COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 55 PERCENT MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 70 AND 100 PERCENT TONIGHT
AND MONDAY NIGHT.

A SOUTH WIND AVERAGE 10 TO 20 MPH...THEN BECOME WEST TO
NORTHWEST BY WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH BY AFTERNOON. THE WIND WILL
DIMINISHING DOWN 5-15 MPH LATE MONDAY NIGHT...LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TUESDAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WHICH
WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY
IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.


&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...SND
SHORT TERM...SND/HWJIV
LONG TERM...KL/GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...SND




000
FXUS61 KALY 301337
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
937 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL WHIP ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME GUSTY WINDS AS WELL.
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TONIGHT...BUT A DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING MORE CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE PRECIPITATION TO MAINLY
AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST
TO BRING FAIR WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 937 AM...APPROACHING COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH BUFFALO
BUT IS NOT YET TO SYRACUSE. AHEAD OF THE FRONT THERE ARE BANDS OF
SNOW AND TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. LATEST HRRR SHOWS
FRONT SHOULD REACH THE HUDSON RIVER BETWEEN 2-3 PM AND PASS EAST
OF OUR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND COUNTIES BY 5 PM.

THIS FRONT WILL TURN THE WINDS TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION. A SECOND
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND TURN THE WINDS MORE
NORTHWESTERLY...AND BRING IN ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR.

CURRENT UPDATE WAS TO TIME BANDS OF SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. NO CHANGE MADE TO MAX TEMPERATURES. MAX TEMPS TODAY MAY BE
TO HIGH OVER THE ADIRONDACKS...WHERE TEMPERATURES MAY NOT MAKE IT
ABOVE FREEZING. ELSEWHERE...THEY LOOK ON TRACK WITH HIGHS IN THE
30S TERRAIN TO 40S TO NEAR 50 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

WINDS STILL EXPECTED TO BE QUITE GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON AFTER THE
FIRST FRONT PASSES. WINDS CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN NEW YORK ARE
GUSTING IN THE 25-35 KNOT RANGE FROM THE WEST.

SKIES ARE NOW CLOUDY ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT A FEW BREAKS THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY EASY OF THE HIGH TERRAIN AS WESTERLY WINDS
DOWNSLOPE INTO THE VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN RESULTING IN A CLEARING
SKY AND A GRADUAL DIMINISHING WIND (AFTER SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE
EVENING)...BUT PROBABLY NOT GO COMPLETELY CALM. NIGHT TIME LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S...EXCEPT UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

A TRAILING PIECE OF NORTHERN STREAM UPPER ENERGY TRACKS SOUTHEAST
OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND TRACKS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TUESDAY...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A PRECIPITATION
SHIELD...POSSIBLY EXTENDING JUST SOUTH OF I-90. CLOUDS WILL EXTEND
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA. WHILE ON PAPER IT LOOKS COLD
ENOUGH FOR THIS PRECIPITATION TO BE SNOW...THAT FACT THAT IT IS
NEARLY APRIL...THE AIR MASS WILL NOT BE ALL THAT COLD...AND MUCH OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL DURING THE DAY ALLOWING SOLAR INFLUENCE
THROUGH THE CLOUDS...PTYPE WILL BE A CHALLENGE. IF THE PRECIPITATION
IS LIGHT ENOUGH (WHICH WE BELIEVE WILL BE THE CASE) WE WOULD
PROBABLY BE LOOKING AT SNOW AT ELEVATIONS HIGHER THAN 1500
FEET...AND RAIN OR RAIN SNOW MIX IN THE VALLEY WITH VERY LITTLE IF
ANY ACCUMULATION. EVEN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACCUMULATIONS (IF
ANY) LOOK LIGHT BUT AGAIN WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR LATER TRENDS TO
SEE IF THERE SIGNALS RAMPING UP THE QPF (WHICH WOULD FAVOR MORE SNOW
OVER RAIN AND OF COURSE MORE ACCUMULATION). WE KEPT POPS IN THE
CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW...EVEN THOUGH SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES
HIGHER CHANCES THAN THAT TO OUR SOUTH.

PROJECT HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS (POSSIBLY
HIGHEST NORTH OF ALBANY WHERE THE CLOUDS WILL BE THE THINNEST). HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 30S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN...IF
PRECIPITATION TURNS OUT TO BE HEAVIER...THESE HIGHS WOULD HAVE TO BE
LOWERED SEVERAL DEGREES.

THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ON TUESDAY EVENING...LEAVING HIGH PRESSURE
TO BUILD BACK IN. THE SKY SHOULD CLEAR AND WITH LIGHT WIND
TEMPERATURES WILL TANK (ESPECIALLY IN ANY AREAS THAT PICK UP EVEN
FRESH COATING OF SNOW). LOWS WILL DIP BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S
ALBANY SOUTHWARD...15-20 FURTHER NORTH AND WEST.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY DECENT DAY (AT LEAST BY THIS SPRING
STANDARDS). BRIGHT SUNSHINE WILL BOLSTER TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 40S IN THE VALLEYS...MID TO UPPER 30S HIGHER TERRAIN.
THESE VALUES ARE STILL A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY REGARDING THE HANDLING OF FAST MOVING
PACIFIC SHORTWAVE ENERGY DURING THE FRI-SAT TIME PERIOD.

THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE DEAMPLIFYING AT THE START OF THE
EXTENDED ACROSS THE U.S...AS THE PERSISTENT POLAR VORTEX RELAXES AND
REORIENTS A BIT FURTHER N AND W ACROSS CANADA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
FAST MOVING PACIFIC SYSTEMS TO TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
U.S. RIDGING AHEAD OF ONE OF THESE DISTURBANCES SHOULD BRING A
PERIOD OF MILDER TEMPERATURES FOR THU-FRI...BEFORE TEMPS TREND BACK
TO BELOW NORMAL BY NEXT WEEKEND AS MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ONCE
AGAIN FALL ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

THU-SAT NT...A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL TRACK EAST FROM
THE WESTERN U.S. DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH A NORTHERN PIECE
TRACKING INTO CENTRAL CANADA...WHILE A SOUTHERN ONE TRACKS INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. FRONTAL SYSTEMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN
ONE SHOULD IMPACT OUR REGION THU...WITH A WARM FRONT
INITIALLY...THEN A COLD FRONT SOMETIME THU NT OR FRI. THIS SHOULD
BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION THU AFTN-EARLY FRI. THEN...AS
THE SOUTHERN PIECE OF ENERGY TRACKS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
EVENTUALLY THE EASTERN U.S...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP
ALONG THE COLD FRONT...AND ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO LINGER/REDEVELOP
LATER FRI AND POSSIBLY INTO SAT. DEPENDING ON HOW THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY AND TIMING OF ASSOCIATED SFC BOUNDARIES TRACK FRI-
SAT...THERE COULD BE ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR P-TYPE ISSUES WITH ANY
LINGERING PRECIP FRIDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...SOME GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT ANY SOUTHERN PIECES OF ENERGY AND WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACK FURTHER SOUTH WITH LESS IMPACTS ON OUR REGION.
SO...AT THIS TIME...GENERALLY HAVE INDICATED ONLY CHC POPS FOR
THIS TIME PERIOD...MAINLY FOR RAIN SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH SOME SNOW
COULD OCCUR FRI NT INTO SAT MORNING DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING
AND TRACK OF SYSTEMS.

SUN...A RETURN TO BELOW...TO POTENTIALLY WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IS
QUITE POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF ANY PREVIOUS SYSTEM. IT SHOULD BE
GENERALLY DRY...ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS OF SNOW OR
RAIN DEPENDING ON INSTABILITY AND OVERALL PROGRESSION OF UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY.

TEMPERATURE WISE...HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND
50S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. HIGHS FRIDAY
GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH UPPER 40S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TEENS TO THE 20S. HIGHS SUNDAY IN
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.


&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 630 AM...THE INITIAL BAND OF SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT WAS ALREADY MOVING THROUGH THE TAF
SITES AND WILL LIKELY BE EAST OF THE REGION BY 12Z (THE START OF
THE TAF PERIOD). EVEN AFTER THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH...THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS (MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS LATER IN THE DAY...WILL
CONTINUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING
THE MID AFTERNOON PERIOD. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THERE WILL STILL
BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALSO AFFECTS
THE REGION.

ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A FEW WEATHER FEATURES AFFECTING THE REGION
DURING THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z TUESDAY...MOISTURE IS LIMITED
AND FORCING IS RELATIVELY WEAK...SO FOR THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF
TAF SITES HAVE GENERALLY FORECAST VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE
TAF PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION IS AT KGFL...WHERE A TEMPO GROUP FOR
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS DUE TO SNOW SHOWERS HAS BEEN FORECAST BETWEEN 12Z
AND 15Z. OTHERWISE...THE THREAT OF SHOWERS IS LOW AND TIMING
DIFFICULT...SO HAVE ONLY INDICATED VCSH DURING THE DAY AT THE
OTHER TAF SITES AND DURING OTHER TIMES OF THE TAFS.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AT 8 TO 12
KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS. AFTER THE WARM FRONT THE WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS WITH
GUSTS OF 18 TO 25 KTS DURING MID/LATE MONDAY MORNING. BY MID
AFTERNOON THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WESTERLY AFTER THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH WITH SPEEDS OF 12 TO 18 KTS AND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30
KTS. AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...THE SPEEDS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH...DROPPING TO 5 TO 10 KTS BY LATE TONIGHT...WITH SOME
GUSTS TO 15 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH TODAY...

A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION EARLY MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS
FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST. A COLD FRONT COULD BRING A FEW MORE
SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK
IN TONIGHT. ANOTHER CLIPPER TRACKING MAINLY SOUTH OF THE REGION
COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 55 PERCENT MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 70 AND 100 PERCENT TONIGHT
AND MONDAY NIGHT.

A SOUTH WIND AVERAGE 10 TO 20 MPH...THEN BECOME WEST TO
NORTHWEST BY WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH BY AFTERNOON. THE WIND WILL
DIMINISHING DOWN 5-15 MPH LATE MONDAY NIGHT...LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TUESDAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WHICH
WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY
IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.


&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...SND
SHORT TERM...SND/HWJIV
LONG TERM...KL/GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...SND



000
FXUS61 KOKX 301144
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
744 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS LATE TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A QUICK MOVING LOW
ON TUE. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THEN...A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE AREA LATE
IN THE WEEK...INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FORECAST ON TRACK WITH JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO REFLECT
LATEST OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE...MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT PRODUCING A BATCH OF RADAR RETURNS ACROSS
UPSTATE NY INTO ERN PA THAT WILL TRAVERSE THE CWA DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. 00Z KOKX SOUNDING WAS DRY WITH ONLY 0.12
PW. LLVL MOISTURE CONFINED TO ERN LI AND CT WHERE FLOW OFF THE
OCEAN HAS PROVIDED SOME MOISTENING. PCPN COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO
BE SCT AND LGT. THE COLUMN APPEARS COLD ENOUGH BASED ON THE 00Z
MODELS TO ALLOW FOR SNOW SHWRS POSSIBLE MIXED WITH RAIN THRU
12Z...THEN TRANSITIONING TO MAINLY RAIN SHWRS THRU THE MRNG HRS AS
BOTH THE BL AND MID LVLS WARM. PCPN CHCS MAINLY TIL 16Z...THEN
THEY DROP QUICKLY.

THE CDFNT OVER OH AT 7Z REACHES ORANGE COUNTY PER THE 12Z NAM
RIGHT ABOUT 18Z. IT THEN SWEEPS ACROSS THE CWA AND CLEARS THE AREA
BY 00Z. ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE COULD PRODUCE A FEW HRS OF PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES BEFORE DARK. MOSTLY CLR SKIES OVERNIGHT BUT THE DATA
SUGGESTS WIND WILL KEEPS THINGS SLIGHTLY STIRRED UP...THEREBY
KEEPING TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT. AS A RESULT...LOWS CLOSE TO
GUIDANCE WERE USED WITH MINS ABOUT 5-7 DEGREES BLW CLIMO. IF WINDS
DECOUPLE...AT LEAST 5 DEGREES WILL NEED TO BE CHOPPED OFF THE FCST
ACROSS THE OUTLYING AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
SYS CURRENTLY OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL RACE TOWARDS THE
AREA WITH THE SFC LOW REACHING THE NYC LONGITUDE APPROXIMATELY 00Z
WED. THE 00Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF ARE ALL IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SPEED...BUT THE MODELS DIFFER WRT THE EXACT N-S TRACK. THE
ECMWF WAS THE FURTHEST S...WITH THE NAM AND GFS CLUSTERED CLOSELY
WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLES ACROSS CNTRL NJ. THE SREF MEAN WAS SLIGHLY
FURTHER N. POPS FOR INCREASED TO JUST BLW LIKELY BY LATE AFTN.
THIS TRACK COMBINED WITH THE THERMAL PROFILES ALOFT WOULD SUPPORT
A COLD ENOUGH COLUMN ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA FOR SNOW. WITH THE
BL INITIALLY WARM...LGT RAIN COULD MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO SNOW AS
STEADIER/HEAVIER PCPN MOVES IN. SRN AREAS...PARTICULARLY FROM WRN
NJ ZONES THRU THE CITY AND ONTO LI...TEMPS ALOFT MAY WARM FOR A
CHANGE BACK TO RAIN...OR IT MAY EVEN REMAIN ALL RAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. LATEST 00Z
FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATING THAT ANY RAIN OR SNOW...WILL CHANGE TO
ALL SNOW SHORTLY AFTER 00Z ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AS
COLD AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. QPF TOTALS ARE GENERALLY ON THE LOW
END WITH LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. ANY PRECIPITATION WILL
TAPER OFF LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY THEN MOVES OFFSHORE
THURSDAY...WITH RETURN FLOW AND MOIST AIR QUICKLY SPREADING NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
40S.

NEXT LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE LOCAL AREA LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...WITH RAIN CHANCES CONTINUING STRAIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S AND LOWS IN
THE LOW TO MID 40S. TEMPERATURES FALL BACK TO NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH EASTERN CANADA WILL BRING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON...17Z TO 21Z.

AREA OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION MOVING THROUGH...FROM NEAR KHPN TO JUST
EAST OF THE NYC TERMINALS WAS TRACKING EAST AT 25 KT. VFR...EXCEPT
IN THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION...WHICH SHOULD BE SNOW...MARGINAL
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY. PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE
TERMINALS...KGON...AROUND 16Z.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 10 KT...BECOMING WEST TO
NORTHWEST...280 TO 300 TRUE...WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.
OCCASIONAL GUSTS WITH THE SOUTHERLY WIND THIS MORNING WILL BECOME
MORE FREQUENT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. HIGHEST GUSTS 20
TO 25 KT...MOST GUSTS AROUND 20 KT. GUSTS END THIS EVENING...00Z TO
03Z.

          NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST WITH FREQUENT
GUSTS DEVELOPING AROUND 14Z. HIGHEST GUSTS PEAK AROUND 27 KT THIS
AFTERNOON. WIND REMAINS LEFT OF 300 TRUE.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST WITH FREQUENT
GUSTS DEVELOPING AROUND 14Z. HIGHEST GUSTS PEAK AROUND 25 KT
THIS AFTERNOON. WIND REMAINS LEFT OF 300 TRUE.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST WITH FREQUENT
GUSTS. HIGHEST GUSTS PEAK AROUND 28 KT THIS AFTERNOON. WIND REMAINS
LEFT OF 290 TRUE.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST WITH FREQUENT
GUSTS DEVELOPING AROUND 14Z. HIGHEST GUSTS PEAK AROUND 25 KT THIS
AFTERNOON. WIND REMAINS LEFT OF 300 TRUE.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MARGINAL VFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW ENDING
BY 13Z. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST WITH FREQUENT GUSTS
DEVELOPING AROUND 14Z. HIGHEST GUSTS PEAK AROUND 25 KT THIS
AFTERNOON. WIND REMAINS LEFT OF 290 TRUE.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MARGINAL VFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW ENDING
BY 14Z. THERE IS A CHANCE SOME RAIN MAY MIX IN BEFORE ENDING. HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST WITH FREQUENT GUSTS DEVELOPING AROUND
15Z. HIGHEST GUSTS PEAK AROUND 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON. WIND REMAINS
LEFT OF 280 TRUE.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.TUESDAY...VFR. LATE AFTERNOON MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
DEVELOPING -RA/SN.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLE MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN -SN.
.WEDNESDAY...VFR.
.THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR...WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN -RA LATE IN
IN THE DAY AND AT NIGHT. POSSIBLE LLWS.
.FRIDAY...MVFR IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SW WIND INCREASE TODAY TO SCA LVLS...THEN WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW
THIS AFTN INTO THE EVE AS A CDFNT TRACKS THRU. WINDS DIMINISH THIS
EVE...BUT SEAS REMAIN ABV SCA LVLS ON THE OCEAN. SCA COND MAY
DEVELOP AGAIN ON ALL WATERS TUE AS LOW PRES TRACKS QUICKLY INTO
THE REGION. SEAS MAY BRIEFLY TOUGH 5 FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT SUB-SMALL CRAFT LEVEL CONDITIONS THROUGH
THURSDAY AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS OVER THE REGION. WIND
GUSTS AND WAVES INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE OCEAN WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TRACE AMTS TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT ARE EXPECTED
TODAY. A FEW TENTHS OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT IS POSSIBLE TUE AND TUE
NGT. THEREAFTER...NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS
FORECAST.

RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW BANK FULL...BUT
INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT WILL CONTINUE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT INTO
THIS WEEKEND. ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY
OCCUR...COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING
IS UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS
SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-
     335-338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/JMC
NEAR TERM...BC/JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...BC/JMC
HYDROLOGY...BC/JMC



000
FXUS61 KOKX 301144
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
744 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS LATE TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A QUICK MOVING LOW
ON TUE. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THEN...A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE AREA LATE
IN THE WEEK...INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FORECAST ON TRACK WITH JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO REFLECT
LATEST OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE...MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT PRODUCING A BATCH OF RADAR RETURNS ACROSS
UPSTATE NY INTO ERN PA THAT WILL TRAVERSE THE CWA DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. 00Z KOKX SOUNDING WAS DRY WITH ONLY 0.12
PW. LLVL MOISTURE CONFINED TO ERN LI AND CT WHERE FLOW OFF THE
OCEAN HAS PROVIDED SOME MOISTENING. PCPN COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO
BE SCT AND LGT. THE COLUMN APPEARS COLD ENOUGH BASED ON THE 00Z
MODELS TO ALLOW FOR SNOW SHWRS POSSIBLE MIXED WITH RAIN THRU
12Z...THEN TRANSITIONING TO MAINLY RAIN SHWRS THRU THE MRNG HRS AS
BOTH THE BL AND MID LVLS WARM. PCPN CHCS MAINLY TIL 16Z...THEN
THEY DROP QUICKLY.

THE CDFNT OVER OH AT 7Z REACHES ORANGE COUNTY PER THE 12Z NAM
RIGHT ABOUT 18Z. IT THEN SWEEPS ACROSS THE CWA AND CLEARS THE AREA
BY 00Z. ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE COULD PRODUCE A FEW HRS OF PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES BEFORE DARK. MOSTLY CLR SKIES OVERNIGHT BUT THE DATA
SUGGESTS WIND WILL KEEPS THINGS SLIGHTLY STIRRED UP...THEREBY
KEEPING TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT. AS A RESULT...LOWS CLOSE TO
GUIDANCE WERE USED WITH MINS ABOUT 5-7 DEGREES BLW CLIMO. IF WINDS
DECOUPLE...AT LEAST 5 DEGREES WILL NEED TO BE CHOPPED OFF THE FCST
ACROSS THE OUTLYING AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
SYS CURRENTLY OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL RACE TOWARDS THE
AREA WITH THE SFC LOW REACHING THE NYC LONGITUDE APPROXIMATELY 00Z
WED. THE 00Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF ARE ALL IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SPEED...BUT THE MODELS DIFFER WRT THE EXACT N-S TRACK. THE
ECMWF WAS THE FURTHEST S...WITH THE NAM AND GFS CLUSTERED CLOSELY
WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLES ACROSS CNTRL NJ. THE SREF MEAN WAS SLIGHLY
FURTHER N. POPS FOR INCREASED TO JUST BLW LIKELY BY LATE AFTN.
THIS TRACK COMBINED WITH THE THERMAL PROFILES ALOFT WOULD SUPPORT
A COLD ENOUGH COLUMN ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA FOR SNOW. WITH THE
BL INITIALLY WARM...LGT RAIN COULD MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO SNOW AS
STEADIER/HEAVIER PCPN MOVES IN. SRN AREAS...PARTICULARLY FROM WRN
NJ ZONES THRU THE CITY AND ONTO LI...TEMPS ALOFT MAY WARM FOR A
CHANGE BACK TO RAIN...OR IT MAY EVEN REMAIN ALL RAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. LATEST 00Z
FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATING THAT ANY RAIN OR SNOW...WILL CHANGE TO
ALL SNOW SHORTLY AFTER 00Z ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AS
COLD AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. QPF TOTALS ARE GENERALLY ON THE LOW
END WITH LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. ANY PRECIPITATION WILL
TAPER OFF LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY THEN MOVES OFFSHORE
THURSDAY...WITH RETURN FLOW AND MOIST AIR QUICKLY SPREADING NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
40S.

NEXT LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE LOCAL AREA LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...WITH RAIN CHANCES CONTINUING STRAIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S AND LOWS IN
THE LOW TO MID 40S. TEMPERATURES FALL BACK TO NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH EASTERN CANADA WILL BRING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON...17Z TO 21Z.

AREA OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION MOVING THROUGH...FROM NEAR KHPN TO JUST
EAST OF THE NYC TERMINALS WAS TRACKING EAST AT 25 KT. VFR...EXCEPT
IN THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION...WHICH SHOULD BE SNOW...MARGINAL
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY. PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE
TERMINALS...KGON...AROUND 16Z.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 10 KT...BECOMING WEST TO
NORTHWEST...280 TO 300 TRUE...WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.
OCCASIONAL GUSTS WITH THE SOUTHERLY WIND THIS MORNING WILL BECOME
MORE FREQUENT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. HIGHEST GUSTS 20
TO 25 KT...MOST GUSTS AROUND 20 KT. GUSTS END THIS EVENING...00Z TO
03Z.

          NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST WITH FREQUENT
GUSTS DEVELOPING AROUND 14Z. HIGHEST GUSTS PEAK AROUND 27 KT THIS
AFTERNOON. WIND REMAINS LEFT OF 300 TRUE.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST WITH FREQUENT
GUSTS DEVELOPING AROUND 14Z. HIGHEST GUSTS PEAK AROUND 25 KT
THIS AFTERNOON. WIND REMAINS LEFT OF 300 TRUE.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST WITH FREQUENT
GUSTS. HIGHEST GUSTS PEAK AROUND 28 KT THIS AFTERNOON. WIND REMAINS
LEFT OF 290 TRUE.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST WITH FREQUENT
GUSTS DEVELOPING AROUND 14Z. HIGHEST GUSTS PEAK AROUND 25 KT THIS
AFTERNOON. WIND REMAINS LEFT OF 300 TRUE.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MARGINAL VFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW ENDING
BY 13Z. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST WITH FREQUENT GUSTS
DEVELOPING AROUND 14Z. HIGHEST GUSTS PEAK AROUND 25 KT THIS
AFTERNOON. WIND REMAINS LEFT OF 290 TRUE.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MARGINAL VFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW ENDING
BY 14Z. THERE IS A CHANCE SOME RAIN MAY MIX IN BEFORE ENDING. HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST WITH FREQUENT GUSTS DEVELOPING AROUND
15Z. HIGHEST GUSTS PEAK AROUND 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON. WIND REMAINS
LEFT OF 280 TRUE.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.TUESDAY...VFR. LATE AFTERNOON MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
DEVELOPING -RA/SN.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLE MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN -SN.
.WEDNESDAY...VFR.
.THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR...WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN -RA LATE IN
IN THE DAY AND AT NIGHT. POSSIBLE LLWS.
.FRIDAY...MVFR IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SW WIND INCREASE TODAY TO SCA LVLS...THEN WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW
THIS AFTN INTO THE EVE AS A CDFNT TRACKS THRU. WINDS DIMINISH THIS
EVE...BUT SEAS REMAIN ABV SCA LVLS ON THE OCEAN. SCA COND MAY
DEVELOP AGAIN ON ALL WATERS TUE AS LOW PRES TRACKS QUICKLY INTO
THE REGION. SEAS MAY BRIEFLY TOUGH 5 FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT SUB-SMALL CRAFT LEVEL CONDITIONS THROUGH
THURSDAY AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS OVER THE REGION. WIND
GUSTS AND WAVES INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE OCEAN WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TRACE AMTS TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT ARE EXPECTED
TODAY. A FEW TENTHS OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT IS POSSIBLE TUE AND TUE
NGT. THEREAFTER...NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS
FORECAST.

RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW BANK FULL...BUT
INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT WILL CONTINUE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT INTO
THIS WEEKEND. ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY
OCCUR...COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING
IS UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS
SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-
     335-338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/JMC
NEAR TERM...BC/JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...BC/JMC
HYDROLOGY...BC/JMC



000
FXUS61 KOKX 301144
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
744 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS LATE TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A QUICK MOVING LOW
ON TUE. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THEN...A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE AREA LATE
IN THE WEEK...INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FORECAST ON TRACK WITH JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO REFLECT
LATEST OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE...MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT PRODUCING A BATCH OF RADAR RETURNS ACROSS
UPSTATE NY INTO ERN PA THAT WILL TRAVERSE THE CWA DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. 00Z KOKX SOUNDING WAS DRY WITH ONLY 0.12
PW. LLVL MOISTURE CONFINED TO ERN LI AND CT WHERE FLOW OFF THE
OCEAN HAS PROVIDED SOME MOISTENING. PCPN COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO
BE SCT AND LGT. THE COLUMN APPEARS COLD ENOUGH BASED ON THE 00Z
MODELS TO ALLOW FOR SNOW SHWRS POSSIBLE MIXED WITH RAIN THRU
12Z...THEN TRANSITIONING TO MAINLY RAIN SHWRS THRU THE MRNG HRS AS
BOTH THE BL AND MID LVLS WARM. PCPN CHCS MAINLY TIL 16Z...THEN
THEY DROP QUICKLY.

THE CDFNT OVER OH AT 7Z REACHES ORANGE COUNTY PER THE 12Z NAM
RIGHT ABOUT 18Z. IT THEN SWEEPS ACROSS THE CWA AND CLEARS THE AREA
BY 00Z. ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE COULD PRODUCE A FEW HRS OF PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES BEFORE DARK. MOSTLY CLR SKIES OVERNIGHT BUT THE DATA
SUGGESTS WIND WILL KEEPS THINGS SLIGHTLY STIRRED UP...THEREBY
KEEPING TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT. AS A RESULT...LOWS CLOSE TO
GUIDANCE WERE USED WITH MINS ABOUT 5-7 DEGREES BLW CLIMO. IF WINDS
DECOUPLE...AT LEAST 5 DEGREES WILL NEED TO BE CHOPPED OFF THE FCST
ACROSS THE OUTLYING AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
SYS CURRENTLY OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL RACE TOWARDS THE
AREA WITH THE SFC LOW REACHING THE NYC LONGITUDE APPROXIMATELY 00Z
WED. THE 00Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF ARE ALL IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SPEED...BUT THE MODELS DIFFER WRT THE EXACT N-S TRACK. THE
ECMWF WAS THE FURTHEST S...WITH THE NAM AND GFS CLUSTERED CLOSELY
WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLES ACROSS CNTRL NJ. THE SREF MEAN WAS SLIGHLY
FURTHER N. POPS FOR INCREASED TO JUST BLW LIKELY BY LATE AFTN.
THIS TRACK COMBINED WITH THE THERMAL PROFILES ALOFT WOULD SUPPORT
A COLD ENOUGH COLUMN ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA FOR SNOW. WITH THE
BL INITIALLY WARM...LGT RAIN COULD MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO SNOW AS
STEADIER/HEAVIER PCPN MOVES IN. SRN AREAS...PARTICULARLY FROM WRN
NJ ZONES THRU THE CITY AND ONTO LI...TEMPS ALOFT MAY WARM FOR A
CHANGE BACK TO RAIN...OR IT MAY EVEN REMAIN ALL RAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. LATEST 00Z
FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATING THAT ANY RAIN OR SNOW...WILL CHANGE TO
ALL SNOW SHORTLY AFTER 00Z ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AS
COLD AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. QPF TOTALS ARE GENERALLY ON THE LOW
END WITH LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. ANY PRECIPITATION WILL
TAPER OFF LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY THEN MOVES OFFSHORE
THURSDAY...WITH RETURN FLOW AND MOIST AIR QUICKLY SPREADING NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
40S.

NEXT LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE LOCAL AREA LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...WITH RAIN CHANCES CONTINUING STRAIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S AND LOWS IN
THE LOW TO MID 40S. TEMPERATURES FALL BACK TO NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH EASTERN CANADA WILL BRING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON...17Z TO 21Z.

AREA OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION MOVING THROUGH...FROM NEAR KHPN TO JUST
EAST OF THE NYC TERMINALS WAS TRACKING EAST AT 25 KT. VFR...EXCEPT
IN THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION...WHICH SHOULD BE SNOW...MARGINAL
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY. PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE
TERMINALS...KGON...AROUND 16Z.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 10 KT...BECOMING WEST TO
NORTHWEST...280 TO 300 TRUE...WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.
OCCASIONAL GUSTS WITH THE SOUTHERLY WIND THIS MORNING WILL BECOME
MORE FREQUENT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. HIGHEST GUSTS 20
TO 25 KT...MOST GUSTS AROUND 20 KT. GUSTS END THIS EVENING...00Z TO
03Z.

          NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST WITH FREQUENT
GUSTS DEVELOPING AROUND 14Z. HIGHEST GUSTS PEAK AROUND 27 KT THIS
AFTERNOON. WIND REMAINS LEFT OF 300 TRUE.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST WITH FREQUENT
GUSTS DEVELOPING AROUND 14Z. HIGHEST GUSTS PEAK AROUND 25 KT
THIS AFTERNOON. WIND REMAINS LEFT OF 300 TRUE.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST WITH FREQUENT
GUSTS. HIGHEST GUSTS PEAK AROUND 28 KT THIS AFTERNOON. WIND REMAINS
LEFT OF 290 TRUE.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST WITH FREQUENT
GUSTS DEVELOPING AROUND 14Z. HIGHEST GUSTS PEAK AROUND 25 KT THIS
AFTERNOON. WIND REMAINS LEFT OF 300 TRUE.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MARGINAL VFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW ENDING
BY 13Z. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST WITH FREQUENT GUSTS
DEVELOPING AROUND 14Z. HIGHEST GUSTS PEAK AROUND 25 KT THIS
AFTERNOON. WIND REMAINS LEFT OF 290 TRUE.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MARGINAL VFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW ENDING
BY 14Z. THERE IS A CHANCE SOME RAIN MAY MIX IN BEFORE ENDING. HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST WITH FREQUENT GUSTS DEVELOPING AROUND
15Z. HIGHEST GUSTS PEAK AROUND 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON. WIND REMAINS
LEFT OF 280 TRUE.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.TUESDAY...VFR. LATE AFTERNOON MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
DEVELOPING -RA/SN.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLE MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN -SN.
.WEDNESDAY...VFR.
.THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR...WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN -RA LATE IN
IN THE DAY AND AT NIGHT. POSSIBLE LLWS.
.FRIDAY...MVFR IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SW WIND INCREASE TODAY TO SCA LVLS...THEN WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW
THIS AFTN INTO THE EVE AS A CDFNT TRACKS THRU. WINDS DIMINISH THIS
EVE...BUT SEAS REMAIN ABV SCA LVLS ON THE OCEAN. SCA COND MAY
DEVELOP AGAIN ON ALL WATERS TUE AS LOW PRES TRACKS QUICKLY INTO
THE REGION. SEAS MAY BRIEFLY TOUGH 5 FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT SUB-SMALL CRAFT LEVEL CONDITIONS THROUGH
THURSDAY AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS OVER THE REGION. WIND
GUSTS AND WAVES INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE OCEAN WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TRACE AMTS TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT ARE EXPECTED
TODAY. A FEW TENTHS OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT IS POSSIBLE TUE AND TUE
NGT. THEREAFTER...NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS
FORECAST.

RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW BANK FULL...BUT
INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT WILL CONTINUE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT INTO
THIS WEEKEND. ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY
OCCUR...COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING
IS UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS
SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-
     335-338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/JMC
NEAR TERM...BC/JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...BC/JMC
HYDROLOGY...BC/JMC




000
FXUS61 KOKX 301144
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
744 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS LATE TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A QUICK MOVING LOW
ON TUE. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THEN...A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE AREA LATE
IN THE WEEK...INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FORECAST ON TRACK WITH JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO REFLECT
LATEST OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE...MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT PRODUCING A BATCH OF RADAR RETURNS ACROSS
UPSTATE NY INTO ERN PA THAT WILL TRAVERSE THE CWA DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. 00Z KOKX SOUNDING WAS DRY WITH ONLY 0.12
PW. LLVL MOISTURE CONFINED TO ERN LI AND CT WHERE FLOW OFF THE
OCEAN HAS PROVIDED SOME MOISTENING. PCPN COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO
BE SCT AND LGT. THE COLUMN APPEARS COLD ENOUGH BASED ON THE 00Z
MODELS TO ALLOW FOR SNOW SHWRS POSSIBLE MIXED WITH RAIN THRU
12Z...THEN TRANSITIONING TO MAINLY RAIN SHWRS THRU THE MRNG HRS AS
BOTH THE BL AND MID LVLS WARM. PCPN CHCS MAINLY TIL 16Z...THEN
THEY DROP QUICKLY.

THE CDFNT OVER OH AT 7Z REACHES ORANGE COUNTY PER THE 12Z NAM
RIGHT ABOUT 18Z. IT THEN SWEEPS ACROSS THE CWA AND CLEARS THE AREA
BY 00Z. ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE COULD PRODUCE A FEW HRS OF PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES BEFORE DARK. MOSTLY CLR SKIES OVERNIGHT BUT THE DATA
SUGGESTS WIND WILL KEEPS THINGS SLIGHTLY STIRRED UP...THEREBY
KEEPING TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT. AS A RESULT...LOWS CLOSE TO
GUIDANCE WERE USED WITH MINS ABOUT 5-7 DEGREES BLW CLIMO. IF WINDS
DECOUPLE...AT LEAST 5 DEGREES WILL NEED TO BE CHOPPED OFF THE FCST
ACROSS THE OUTLYING AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
SYS CURRENTLY OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL RACE TOWARDS THE
AREA WITH THE SFC LOW REACHING THE NYC LONGITUDE APPROXIMATELY 00Z
WED. THE 00Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF ARE ALL IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SPEED...BUT THE MODELS DIFFER WRT THE EXACT N-S TRACK. THE
ECMWF WAS THE FURTHEST S...WITH THE NAM AND GFS CLUSTERED CLOSELY
WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLES ACROSS CNTRL NJ. THE SREF MEAN WAS SLIGHLY
FURTHER N. POPS FOR INCREASED TO JUST BLW LIKELY BY LATE AFTN.
THIS TRACK COMBINED WITH THE THERMAL PROFILES ALOFT WOULD SUPPORT
A COLD ENOUGH COLUMN ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA FOR SNOW. WITH THE
BL INITIALLY WARM...LGT RAIN COULD MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO SNOW AS
STEADIER/HEAVIER PCPN MOVES IN. SRN AREAS...PARTICULARLY FROM WRN
NJ ZONES THRU THE CITY AND ONTO LI...TEMPS ALOFT MAY WARM FOR A
CHANGE BACK TO RAIN...OR IT MAY EVEN REMAIN ALL RAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. LATEST 00Z
FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATING THAT ANY RAIN OR SNOW...WILL CHANGE TO
ALL SNOW SHORTLY AFTER 00Z ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AS
COLD AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. QPF TOTALS ARE GENERALLY ON THE LOW
END WITH LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. ANY PRECIPITATION WILL
TAPER OFF LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY THEN MOVES OFFSHORE
THURSDAY...WITH RETURN FLOW AND MOIST AIR QUICKLY SPREADING NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
40S.

NEXT LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE LOCAL AREA LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...WITH RAIN CHANCES CONTINUING STRAIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S AND LOWS IN
THE LOW TO MID 40S. TEMPERATURES FALL BACK TO NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH EASTERN CANADA WILL BRING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON...17Z TO 21Z.

AREA OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION MOVING THROUGH...FROM NEAR KHPN TO JUST
EAST OF THE NYC TERMINALS WAS TRACKING EAST AT 25 KT. VFR...EXCEPT
IN THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION...WHICH SHOULD BE SNOW...MARGINAL
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY. PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE
TERMINALS...KGON...AROUND 16Z.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 10 KT...BECOMING WEST TO
NORTHWEST...280 TO 300 TRUE...WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.
OCCASIONAL GUSTS WITH THE SOUTHERLY WIND THIS MORNING WILL BECOME
MORE FREQUENT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. HIGHEST GUSTS 20
TO 25 KT...MOST GUSTS AROUND 20 KT. GUSTS END THIS EVENING...00Z TO
03Z.

          NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST WITH FREQUENT
GUSTS DEVELOPING AROUND 14Z. HIGHEST GUSTS PEAK AROUND 27 KT THIS
AFTERNOON. WIND REMAINS LEFT OF 300 TRUE.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST WITH FREQUENT
GUSTS DEVELOPING AROUND 14Z. HIGHEST GUSTS PEAK AROUND 25 KT
THIS AFTERNOON. WIND REMAINS LEFT OF 300 TRUE.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST WITH FREQUENT
GUSTS. HIGHEST GUSTS PEAK AROUND 28 KT THIS AFTERNOON. WIND REMAINS
LEFT OF 290 TRUE.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST WITH FREQUENT
GUSTS DEVELOPING AROUND 14Z. HIGHEST GUSTS PEAK AROUND 25 KT THIS
AFTERNOON. WIND REMAINS LEFT OF 300 TRUE.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MARGINAL VFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW ENDING
BY 13Z. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST WITH FREQUENT GUSTS
DEVELOPING AROUND 14Z. HIGHEST GUSTS PEAK AROUND 25 KT THIS
AFTERNOON. WIND REMAINS LEFT OF 290 TRUE.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MARGINAL VFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW ENDING
BY 14Z. THERE IS A CHANCE SOME RAIN MAY MIX IN BEFORE ENDING. HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST WITH FREQUENT GUSTS DEVELOPING AROUND
15Z. HIGHEST GUSTS PEAK AROUND 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON. WIND REMAINS
LEFT OF 280 TRUE.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.TUESDAY...VFR. LATE AFTERNOON MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
DEVELOPING -RA/SN.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLE MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN -SN.
.WEDNESDAY...VFR.
.THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR...WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN -RA LATE IN
IN THE DAY AND AT NIGHT. POSSIBLE LLWS.
.FRIDAY...MVFR IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SW WIND INCREASE TODAY TO SCA LVLS...THEN WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW
THIS AFTN INTO THE EVE AS A CDFNT TRACKS THRU. WINDS DIMINISH THIS
EVE...BUT SEAS REMAIN ABV SCA LVLS ON THE OCEAN. SCA COND MAY
DEVELOP AGAIN ON ALL WATERS TUE AS LOW PRES TRACKS QUICKLY INTO
THE REGION. SEAS MAY BRIEFLY TOUGH 5 FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT SUB-SMALL CRAFT LEVEL CONDITIONS THROUGH
THURSDAY AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS OVER THE REGION. WIND
GUSTS AND WAVES INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE OCEAN WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TRACE AMTS TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT ARE EXPECTED
TODAY. A FEW TENTHS OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT IS POSSIBLE TUE AND TUE
NGT. THEREAFTER...NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS
FORECAST.

RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW BANK FULL...BUT
INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT WILL CONTINUE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT INTO
THIS WEEKEND. ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY
OCCUR...COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING
IS UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS
SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-
     335-338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/JMC
NEAR TERM...BC/JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...BC/JMC
HYDROLOGY...BC/JMC




000
FXUS61 KBOX 301055
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
655 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY BRINGING A FEW
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. A FAST-MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES
SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT...POTENTIALLY BRINGING MORE
LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS. A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM MAY
APPROACH LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

700 AM UPDATE...

WAA AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT HAS ALLOWED FOR THE RADAR TO BLOSSOM
THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING SUPPORT
SNOW. IN FACT...A FEW BANDS HAVE SET UP...ONE CROSSING THE
BERKSHIRES WHILE ANOTHER IS MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST CT. PER WEBCAMS
AND ASOS OBSERVATIONS THESE BANDS WILL DROP VSBYS NEAR 3 SM AND
COAT THE GROUND QUICKLY. EXPECT THESE BANDS/SHOWERS TO EXPAND
EASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...HOWEVER MOISTURE IS STILL
MARGINAL SO EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE MORE SCT IN NATURE.

ACTUAL COLD FRONT IS STILL BACK BY PITTSBURGH...AND SHOULD BE
CROSSING THE REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE FOR MORE SCT SHOWERS. YET BY THIS TIME TEMPS SHOULD WARM
UP INTO THE 40S TO ALLOW FOR P-TYPES TO BE IN THE LIQUID FORM.

AS THE FRONT APPROACHES EXPECT GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS NEAR 25 MPH.
THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP WARM TEMPS AWAY FROM THE SOUTH
COAST...REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S. AS THE FRONT
PASSES...WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST AND GUST BETWEEN
20-30 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES TO SUPPORT MIXING INTO THE NIGHT. WINDS
ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL BE 30-40 KNOTS...EXPECT SOME OF THIS TO MIX
TO THE SURFACE IN GUSTS. BASED ON TEMPERATURES UPSTREAM...EXPECT
LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

TUESDAY...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE WEATHER DRY MUCH OF THE DAY.
ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE RACES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT A CLIPPER LOW THAT MOVES
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES DURING THE AFTERNOON. FORECASTS
FROM THE 00Z MODEL SUITE ARE FARTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY WITH
THE ECMWF FARTHEST SOUTH. ALL MODELS BRING SOME MEASURABLE PCPN
INTO CT BY EVENING...THE GFS COVERS AREAS SOUTH OF THE MASS
PIKE...AND THE NAM HAS MEASURABLE PCPN EVERYWHERE.

TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST RAIN MOST PLACES EXCEPT SNOW IN THE
HILLS. TIMING OF THE PCPN WOULD BE AFTER 21Z. WE HAVE SHIFTED
OUR POPS FARTHER NORTH WITH CHANCE POPS REACHING TO ALONG/SOUTH OF
THE MASS PIKE BY 00Z.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
* MODERATING SPRING-LIKE TEMPS LATE THIS WEEK
* INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP DURING THE EASTER WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH AN ALBERTA
CLIPPER MOVING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. RIDGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WILL BUILD INTO NEW ENGLAND BY WED INTO THURSDAY. WESTERN TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CONUS AS A COLD FRONT REACHING THE NORTHEAST
LATE THUR THROUGH SAT. THIS SYSTEM IS ALSO AIDED BY AN UPPER LOW
CIRCLING AROUND HUDSON BAY WHICH WILL LOWER HEIGHTS IN THE NORTHEAST
BY NEXT WEEKEND.

OVERALL TREND IN THE GUIDANCE HAS LEAD TO A LOWER CONFIDENCE. MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED NORTHWARD WITH THE RUN FOR THE ALBERTA CLIPPER
INCREASING PRECIP FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. 00Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO SHOW HIGH PRESSURE ON WED BUT THE OVERALL COLD FRONT IS SPLIT
AMONGST GUIDANCE. THE GFS REMAINS QUICKER WITH THE SFC FRONT
THROUGH THE NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC FRI COMPARED TO THE OTHER
GUIDANCE. THEREFORE CONTINUED TO BLEND WITH WPC UNTIL THE MODELS
ARE MORE IN AGREEMENT.

DETAILS...

* TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY DIVE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM CANADA AND
MOVE JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. OVERALL GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED TOWARDS WHICH IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT RAIN/SNOW WILL
OCCUR. BELIEVE THAT LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE PIKE HAVE THE
BEST CHANCE TO SEE ANY SNOW ACCUMS ONCE TEMPS DROP DUE TO
WETBULBING. STILL NEED TO WATCH THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY AS THERE IS
STILL SPREAD AMONGST THE MODELS. RIGHT NOW ANTICIPATE A QUICK 1-2
INCHES OF SNOW ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE AND ISLAND.

* WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD BEHIND THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WED INTO WED NIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER SNE. LATEST
TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THURSDAY WILL STAY DRY AS HIGH
PRESSURE IS SLOW TO MOVE OFFSHORE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE WITH MID 40S ON WEDNESDAY AND MID 50S ON THURSDAY AS WAA
INCREASE AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM.

* THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. MODERATE
  CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP OCCURRING.

QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WILL SUPPORT CHANGEABLE TEMPERATURES... MODULATED
BY THE SFC COLD FRONT THU INTO SAT. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL BE ON
THE MILD SIDE IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT FINALLY GETTING ABOVE
FREEZING FOR NEW ENGLAND. IN FACT TEMPERATURES COULD BE THE WARMEST
THEY HAVE BEEN IN OVER FOUR MONTHS FOR THE REGION. HOWEVER AS THE
FRONT PASSES EXPECT TEMPS TO RETURN TO BELOW AVG BY ABOUT 5-15F.

ANTICIPATE THIS COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE AREA EITHER THURSDAY
NIGHT/GFS OR FRIDAY/EC AND CMC. APPEARS THAT A WAVE WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT SOMETIME LATE FRIDAY OR SAT. BECAUSE OF THE TIMING
DIFFERENCE...DECIDED TO BLANKET THIS TIME FRAME WITH CHC POPS AND
HOPEFULLY WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HRS CAN PUT BETTER DETAIL INTO THE
FORECAST. CAN STAY THAT THIS SYSTEM DOES LOOK WARM SO EXPECT PRECIP
TYPE TO BE MORE OF THE RAIN FORM. HOWEVER ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
FRONT COULD SEE SOME WET FLAKES.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS
TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

TODAY...VFR. BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
MIDDAY TO MID-AFTERNOON. GUSTY WEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT MAY
REACH 25-30 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...VFR. GUSTY WEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT MAY REACH 25-30
KNOTS.

TUESDAY...VFR. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE ACROSS CT AND RI TOWARD
EVENING.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. INCREASING WINDS AHEAD AND BEHIND THE
FRONT. LOW PROB OF ACCUM SNOW ON RUNWAYS AND MVFR CONDITION.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. MAY SEE MVFR SOUTH OF
MASS PIKE IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...VFR.

FRIDAY...MVFR IN SHOWERS...COULD SEE IFR CONDITIONS BY FRI EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY

HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...A COLD FRONT CROSSES NEW ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS TOWARD EVENING. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST
TO NEAR 25 KNOTS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. WEST WINDS TRAILING THE
FRONT WILL GUST 25-30 KNOTS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5-7 FEET ON THE
OUTER WATERS AND RHODE ISLANDS/BLOCK ISLAND SOUNDS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONTINUES ON ALL WATERS.

TONIGHT...GUSTY WEST WINDS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. SEAS OF 5-7 FEET
LINGER ON THE OUTER WATERS AND RHODE ISLAND SOUNDS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONTINUES.

TUESDAY...GUSTY WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BRIEFLY OVER THE WATERS. LINGERING SMALL CRAFTS ON THE OUTER
WATERS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY NIGHT...QUICK-MOVING SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN
WATERS. THIS WILL KEEP BOTH SEAS AND WINDS ABOVE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. THERE IS A LOW PROB OF GALES FORCE WINDS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE...ALLOWING
FOR SEAS AND WINDS TO RELAX.

FRIDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS...RESULTING IN
INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS AND SEAS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ231-232.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ230-233-234-
     236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 301055
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
655 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY BRINGING A FEW
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. A FAST-MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES
SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT...POTENTIALLY BRINGING MORE
LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS. A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM MAY
APPROACH LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

700 AM UPDATE...

WAA AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT HAS ALLOWED FOR THE RADAR TO BLOSSOM
THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING SUPPORT
SNOW. IN FACT...A FEW BANDS HAVE SET UP...ONE CROSSING THE
BERKSHIRES WHILE ANOTHER IS MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST CT. PER WEBCAMS
AND ASOS OBSERVATIONS THESE BANDS WILL DROP VSBYS NEAR 3 SM AND
COAT THE GROUND QUICKLY. EXPECT THESE BANDS/SHOWERS TO EXPAND
EASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...HOWEVER MOISTURE IS STILL
MARGINAL SO EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE MORE SCT IN NATURE.

ACTUAL COLD FRONT IS STILL BACK BY PITTSBURGH...AND SHOULD BE
CROSSING THE REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE FOR MORE SCT SHOWERS. YET BY THIS TIME TEMPS SHOULD WARM
UP INTO THE 40S TO ALLOW FOR P-TYPES TO BE IN THE LIQUID FORM.

AS THE FRONT APPROACHES EXPECT GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS NEAR 25 MPH.
THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP WARM TEMPS AWAY FROM THE SOUTH
COAST...REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S. AS THE FRONT
PASSES...WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST AND GUST BETWEEN
20-30 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES TO SUPPORT MIXING INTO THE NIGHT. WINDS
ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL BE 30-40 KNOTS...EXPECT SOME OF THIS TO MIX
TO THE SURFACE IN GUSTS. BASED ON TEMPERATURES UPSTREAM...EXPECT
LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

TUESDAY...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE WEATHER DRY MUCH OF THE DAY.
ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE RACES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT A CLIPPER LOW THAT MOVES
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES DURING THE AFTERNOON. FORECASTS
FROM THE 00Z MODEL SUITE ARE FARTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY WITH
THE ECMWF FARTHEST SOUTH. ALL MODELS BRING SOME MEASURABLE PCPN
INTO CT BY EVENING...THE GFS COVERS AREAS SOUTH OF THE MASS
PIKE...AND THE NAM HAS MEASURABLE PCPN EVERYWHERE.

TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST RAIN MOST PLACES EXCEPT SNOW IN THE
HILLS. TIMING OF THE PCPN WOULD BE AFTER 21Z. WE HAVE SHIFTED
OUR POPS FARTHER NORTH WITH CHANCE POPS REACHING TO ALONG/SOUTH OF
THE MASS PIKE BY 00Z.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
* MODERATING SPRING-LIKE TEMPS LATE THIS WEEK
* INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP DURING THE EASTER WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH AN ALBERTA
CLIPPER MOVING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. RIDGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WILL BUILD INTO NEW ENGLAND BY WED INTO THURSDAY. WESTERN TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CONUS AS A COLD FRONT REACHING THE NORTHEAST
LATE THUR THROUGH SAT. THIS SYSTEM IS ALSO AIDED BY AN UPPER LOW
CIRCLING AROUND HUDSON BAY WHICH WILL LOWER HEIGHTS IN THE NORTHEAST
BY NEXT WEEKEND.

OVERALL TREND IN THE GUIDANCE HAS LEAD TO A LOWER CONFIDENCE. MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED NORTHWARD WITH THE RUN FOR THE ALBERTA CLIPPER
INCREASING PRECIP FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. 00Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO SHOW HIGH PRESSURE ON WED BUT THE OVERALL COLD FRONT IS SPLIT
AMONGST GUIDANCE. THE GFS REMAINS QUICKER WITH THE SFC FRONT
THROUGH THE NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC FRI COMPARED TO THE OTHER
GUIDANCE. THEREFORE CONTINUED TO BLEND WITH WPC UNTIL THE MODELS
ARE MORE IN AGREEMENT.

DETAILS...

* TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY DIVE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM CANADA AND
MOVE JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. OVERALL GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED TOWARDS WHICH IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT RAIN/SNOW WILL
OCCUR. BELIEVE THAT LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE PIKE HAVE THE
BEST CHANCE TO SEE ANY SNOW ACCUMS ONCE TEMPS DROP DUE TO
WETBULBING. STILL NEED TO WATCH THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY AS THERE IS
STILL SPREAD AMONGST THE MODELS. RIGHT NOW ANTICIPATE A QUICK 1-2
INCHES OF SNOW ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE AND ISLAND.

* WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD BEHIND THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WED INTO WED NIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER SNE. LATEST
TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THURSDAY WILL STAY DRY AS HIGH
PRESSURE IS SLOW TO MOVE OFFSHORE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE WITH MID 40S ON WEDNESDAY AND MID 50S ON THURSDAY AS WAA
INCREASE AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM.

* THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. MODERATE
  CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP OCCURRING.

QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WILL SUPPORT CHANGEABLE TEMPERATURES... MODULATED
BY THE SFC COLD FRONT THU INTO SAT. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL BE ON
THE MILD SIDE IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT FINALLY GETTING ABOVE
FREEZING FOR NEW ENGLAND. IN FACT TEMPERATURES COULD BE THE WARMEST
THEY HAVE BEEN IN OVER FOUR MONTHS FOR THE REGION. HOWEVER AS THE
FRONT PASSES EXPECT TEMPS TO RETURN TO BELOW AVG BY ABOUT 5-15F.

ANTICIPATE THIS COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE AREA EITHER THURSDAY
NIGHT/GFS OR FRIDAY/EC AND CMC. APPEARS THAT A WAVE WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT SOMETIME LATE FRIDAY OR SAT. BECAUSE OF THE TIMING
DIFFERENCE...DECIDED TO BLANKET THIS TIME FRAME WITH CHC POPS AND
HOPEFULLY WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HRS CAN PUT BETTER DETAIL INTO THE
FORECAST. CAN STAY THAT THIS SYSTEM DOES LOOK WARM SO EXPECT PRECIP
TYPE TO BE MORE OF THE RAIN FORM. HOWEVER ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
FRONT COULD SEE SOME WET FLAKES.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS
TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

TODAY...VFR. BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
MIDDAY TO MID-AFTERNOON. GUSTY WEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT MAY
REACH 25-30 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...VFR. GUSTY WEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT MAY REACH 25-30
KNOTS.

TUESDAY...VFR. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE ACROSS CT AND RI TOWARD
EVENING.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. INCREASING WINDS AHEAD AND BEHIND THE
FRONT. LOW PROB OF ACCUM SNOW ON RUNWAYS AND MVFR CONDITION.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. MAY SEE MVFR SOUTH OF
MASS PIKE IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...VFR.

FRIDAY...MVFR IN SHOWERS...COULD SEE IFR CONDITIONS BY FRI EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY

HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...A COLD FRONT CROSSES NEW ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS TOWARD EVENING. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST
TO NEAR 25 KNOTS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. WEST WINDS TRAILING THE
FRONT WILL GUST 25-30 KNOTS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5-7 FEET ON THE
OUTER WATERS AND RHODE ISLANDS/BLOCK ISLAND SOUNDS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONTINUES ON ALL WATERS.

TONIGHT...GUSTY WEST WINDS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. SEAS OF 5-7 FEET
LINGER ON THE OUTER WATERS AND RHODE ISLAND SOUNDS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONTINUES.

TUESDAY...GUSTY WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BRIEFLY OVER THE WATERS. LINGERING SMALL CRAFTS ON THE OUTER
WATERS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY NIGHT...QUICK-MOVING SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN
WATERS. THIS WILL KEEP BOTH SEAS AND WINDS ABOVE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. THERE IS A LOW PROB OF GALES FORCE WINDS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE...ALLOWING
FOR SEAS AND WINDS TO RELAX.

FRIDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS...RESULTING IN
INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS AND SEAS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ231-232.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ230-233-234-
     236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KOKX 301047
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
647 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS LATE TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A QUICK MOVING LOW
ON TUE. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THEN...A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE AREA LATE
IN THE WEEK...INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FORECAST ON TRACK WITH JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO REFLECT
LATEST OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE...MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT PRODUCING A BATCH OF RADAR RETURNS ACROSS
UPSTATE NY INTO ERN PA THAT WILL TRAVERSE THE CWA DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. 00Z KOKX SOUNDING WAS DRY WITH ONLY 0.12
PW. LLVL MOISTURE CONFINED TO ERN LI AND CT WHERE FLOW OFF THE
OCEAN HAS PROVIDED SOME MOISTENING. PCPN COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO
BE SCT AND LGT. THE COLUMN APPEARS COLD ENOUGH BASED ON THE 00Z
MODELS TO ALLOW FOR SNOW SHWRS POSSIBLE MIXED WITH RAIN THRU
12Z...THEN TRANSITIONING TO MAINLY RAIN SHWRS THRU THE MRNG HRS AS
BOTH THE BL AND MID LVLS WARM. PCPN CHCS MAINLY TIL 16Z...THEN
THEY DROP QUICKLY.

THE CDFNT OVER OH AT 7Z REACHES ORANGE COUNTY PER THE 12Z NAM
RIGHT ABOUT 18Z. IT THEN SWEEPS ACROSS THE CWA AND CLEARS THE AREA
BY 00Z. ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE COULD PRODUCE A FEW HRS OF PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES BEFORE DARK. MOSTLY CLR SKIES OVERNIGHT BUT THE DATA
SUGGESTS WIND WILL KEEPS THINGS SLIGHTLY STIRRED UP...THEREBY
KEEPING TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT. AS A RESULT...LOWS CLOSE TO
GUIDANCE WERE USED WITH MINS ABOUT 5-7 DEGREES BLW CLIMO. IF WINDS
DECOUPLE...AT LEAST 5 DEGREES WILL NEED TO BE CHOPPED OFF THE FCST
ACROSS THE OUTLYING AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
SYS CURRENTLY OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL RACE TOWARDS THE
AREA WITH THE SFC LOW REACHING THE NYC LONGITUDE APPROXIMATELY 00Z
WED. THE 00Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF ARE ALL IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SPEED...BUT THE MODELS DIFFER WRT THE EXACT N-S TRACK. THE
ECMWF WAS THE FURTHEST S...WITH THE NAM AND GFS CLUSTERED CLOSELY
WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLES ACROSS CNTRL NJ. THE SREF MEAN WAS SLIGHLY
FURTHER N. POPS FOR INCREASED TO JUST BLW LIKELY BY LATE AFTN.
THIS TRACK COMBINED WITH THE THERMAL PROFILES ALOFT WOULD SUPPORT
A COLD ENOUGH COLUMN ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA FOR SNOW. WITH THE
BL INITIALLY WARM...LGT RAIN COULD MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO SNOW AS
STEADIER/HEAVIER PCPN MOVES IN. SRN AREAS...PARTICULARLY FROM WRN
NJ ZONES THRU THE CITY AND ONTO LI...TEMPS ALOFT MAY WARM FOR A
CHANGE BACK TO RAIN...OR IT MAY EVEN REMAIN ALL RAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. LATEST 00Z
FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATING THAT ANY RAIN OR SNOW...WILL CHANGE TO
ALL SNOW SHORTLY AFTER 00Z ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AS
COLD AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. QPF TOTALS ARE GENERALLY ON THE LOW
END WITH LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. ANY PRECIPITATION WILL
TAPER OFF LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY THEN MOVES OFFSHORE
THURSDAY...WITH RETURN FLOW AND MOIST AIR QUICKLY SPREADING NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
40S.

NEXT LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE LOCAL AREA LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...WITH RAIN CHANCES CONTINUING STRAIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S AND LOWS IN
THE LOW TO MID 40S. TEMPERATURES FALL BACK TO NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH EASTERN CANADA WILL BRING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON...17Z TO 22Z.

VFR...EXCEPT WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW WITH LOCAL
MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES...11Z TO 18Z...WEST TO EAST.
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOSTLY SNOW. LOW CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIPITATION
WILL OCCUR AT ANY PARTICULAR TERMINAL AND WILL NOT LAST MOST OF THE
TIME IN THE TEMPO GROUP.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 10 KT...BECOMING WEST TO
NORTHWEST...280 TO 300 TRUE...WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.
OCCASIONAL GUSTS WITH THE SOUTHERLY WIND THIS MORNING WILL BECOME
MORE FREQUENT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. HIGHEST GUSTS 20
TO 25 KT...MOST GUSTS AROUND 20 KT. GUSTS END THIS EVENING...00Z TO
03Z.

          NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION...LIKELY WILL
BE ALL RAIN. OCCASIONAL GUSTS WITH THE SOUTHERLY WIND. HIGHER
CONFIDENCE WITH GUSTS WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT....AROUND
18Z. WIND 250 TO 270 TRUE WITH HIGHEST GUSTS AROUND 25 KT.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION...MAY BE ALL
RAIN...OR BRIEF RAIN SNOW MIX. NO ACCUMULATION. OCCASIONAL GUSTS
WITH THE SOUTHERLY WIND. HIGHER CONFIDENCE WITH GUSTS WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT....AROUND 18Z. WIND 250 TO 270 TRUE WITH
HIGHEST GUSTS AROUND 25 KT.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION
OCCURRING...HIGHER CONFIDENCE WILL BE ALL LIGHT SNOW...AND MAY
BRIEFLY LOWER VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS TO MARGINAL VFR...5SM...2500
FT. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION. OCCASIONAL GUSTS WITH THE SOUTHERLY
WIND. HIGHER CONFIDENCE WITH GUSTS WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT....AROUND 18Z. WIND 270 TO 290 TRUE WITH HIGHEST GUSTS AROUND
25 KT.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION
OCCURRING...HIGHER CONFIDENCE WILL BE ALL LIGHT SNOW...AND MAY
BRIEFLY LOWER VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS TO MARGINAL VFR...5SM...2500
FT. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION. OCCASIONAL GUSTS WITH THE SOUTHERLY
WIND. HIGHER CONFIDENCE WITH GUSTS WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT....AROUND 18Z. WIND 270 TO 290 TRUE WITH HIGHEST GUSTS AROUND
22 KT.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION
OCCURRING...HIGHER CONFIDENCE WILL BE ALL LIGHT SNOW AND MAY BRIEFLY
LOWER VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS TO MARGINAL VFR...4SM...2000 FT.
LITTLE ACCUMULATION. OCCASIONAL GUSTS WITH THE SOUTHERLY WIND.
HIGHER CONFIDENCE WITH GUSTS WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT....AROUND 18Z. WIND 270 TO 290 TRUE WITH HIGHEST GUSTS AROUND
22 KT.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION
OCCURRING...AND MAY BE ALL RAIN. OCCASIONAL AND MINIMAL GUSTS IN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW...TO AROUND 19 KT. HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF GUSTS WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT....AROUND 20Z. WIND 270 TO 290 TRUE WITH
HIGHEST GUSTS AROUND 25 KT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.LATE MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...VFR. LATE AFTERNOON TUESDAY
MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN DEVELOPING -RA/SN.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLE MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN -SN.
.WEDNESDAY...VFR.
.THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR...WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN -RA LATE IN
IN THE DAY AND AT NIGHT. POSSIBLE LLWS.
.FRIDAY...MVFR IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SW WIND INCREASE TODAY TO SCA LVLS...THEN WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW
THIS AFTN INTO THE EVE AS A CDFNT TRACKS THRU. WINDS DIMINISH THIS
EVE...BUT SEAS REMAIN ABV SCA LVLS ON THE OCEAN. SCA COND MAY
DEVELOP AGAIN ON ALL WATERS TUE AS LOW PRES TRACKS QUICKLY INTO
THE REGION. SEAS MAY BRIEFLY TOUGH 5 FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT SUB-SMALL CRAFT LEVEL CONDITIONS THROUGH
THURSDAY AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS OVER THE REGION. WIND
GUSTS AND WAVES INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE OCEAN WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TRACE AMTS TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT ARE EXPECTED
TODAY. A FEW TENTHS OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT IS POSSIBLE TUE AND TUE
NGT. THEREAFTER...NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS
FORECAST.

RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW BANK FULL...BUT
INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT WILL CONTINUE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT INTO
THIS WEEKEND. ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY
OCCUR...COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING
IS UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS
SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-
     335-338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/JMC
NEAR TERM...BC/JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...BC/JMC
HYDROLOGY...BC/JMC




000
FXUS61 KOKX 301047
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
647 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS LATE TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A QUICK MOVING LOW
ON TUE. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THEN...A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE AREA LATE
IN THE WEEK...INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FORECAST ON TRACK WITH JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO REFLECT
LATEST OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE...MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT PRODUCING A BATCH OF RADAR RETURNS ACROSS
UPSTATE NY INTO ERN PA THAT WILL TRAVERSE THE CWA DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. 00Z KOKX SOUNDING WAS DRY WITH ONLY 0.12
PW. LLVL MOISTURE CONFINED TO ERN LI AND CT WHERE FLOW OFF THE
OCEAN HAS PROVIDED SOME MOISTENING. PCPN COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO
BE SCT AND LGT. THE COLUMN APPEARS COLD ENOUGH BASED ON THE 00Z
MODELS TO ALLOW FOR SNOW SHWRS POSSIBLE MIXED WITH RAIN THRU
12Z...THEN TRANSITIONING TO MAINLY RAIN SHWRS THRU THE MRNG HRS AS
BOTH THE BL AND MID LVLS WARM. PCPN CHCS MAINLY TIL 16Z...THEN
THEY DROP QUICKLY.

THE CDFNT OVER OH AT 7Z REACHES ORANGE COUNTY PER THE 12Z NAM
RIGHT ABOUT 18Z. IT THEN SWEEPS ACROSS THE CWA AND CLEARS THE AREA
BY 00Z. ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE COULD PRODUCE A FEW HRS OF PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES BEFORE DARK. MOSTLY CLR SKIES OVERNIGHT BUT THE DATA
SUGGESTS WIND WILL KEEPS THINGS SLIGHTLY STIRRED UP...THEREBY
KEEPING TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT. AS A RESULT...LOWS CLOSE TO
GUIDANCE WERE USED WITH MINS ABOUT 5-7 DEGREES BLW CLIMO. IF WINDS
DECOUPLE...AT LEAST 5 DEGREES WILL NEED TO BE CHOPPED OFF THE FCST
ACROSS THE OUTLYING AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
SYS CURRENTLY OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL RACE TOWARDS THE
AREA WITH THE SFC LOW REACHING THE NYC LONGITUDE APPROXIMATELY 00Z
WED. THE 00Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF ARE ALL IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SPEED...BUT THE MODELS DIFFER WRT THE EXACT N-S TRACK. THE
ECMWF WAS THE FURTHEST S...WITH THE NAM AND GFS CLUSTERED CLOSELY
WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLES ACROSS CNTRL NJ. THE SREF MEAN WAS SLIGHLY
FURTHER N. POPS FOR INCREASED TO JUST BLW LIKELY BY LATE AFTN.
THIS TRACK COMBINED WITH THE THERMAL PROFILES ALOFT WOULD SUPPORT
A COLD ENOUGH COLUMN ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA FOR SNOW. WITH THE
BL INITIALLY WARM...LGT RAIN COULD MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO SNOW AS
STEADIER/HEAVIER PCPN MOVES IN. SRN AREAS...PARTICULARLY FROM WRN
NJ ZONES THRU THE CITY AND ONTO LI...TEMPS ALOFT MAY WARM FOR A
CHANGE BACK TO RAIN...OR IT MAY EVEN REMAIN ALL RAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. LATEST 00Z
FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATING THAT ANY RAIN OR SNOW...WILL CHANGE TO
ALL SNOW SHORTLY AFTER 00Z ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AS
COLD AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. QPF TOTALS ARE GENERALLY ON THE LOW
END WITH LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. ANY PRECIPITATION WILL
TAPER OFF LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY THEN MOVES OFFSHORE
THURSDAY...WITH RETURN FLOW AND MOIST AIR QUICKLY SPREADING NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
40S.

NEXT LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE LOCAL AREA LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...WITH RAIN CHANCES CONTINUING STRAIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S AND LOWS IN
THE LOW TO MID 40S. TEMPERATURES FALL BACK TO NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH EASTERN CANADA WILL BRING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON...17Z TO 22Z.

VFR...EXCEPT WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW WITH LOCAL
MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES...11Z TO 18Z...WEST TO EAST.
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOSTLY SNOW. LOW CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIPITATION
WILL OCCUR AT ANY PARTICULAR TERMINAL AND WILL NOT LAST MOST OF THE
TIME IN THE TEMPO GROUP.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 10 KT...BECOMING WEST TO
NORTHWEST...280 TO 300 TRUE...WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.
OCCASIONAL GUSTS WITH THE SOUTHERLY WIND THIS MORNING WILL BECOME
MORE FREQUENT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. HIGHEST GUSTS 20
TO 25 KT...MOST GUSTS AROUND 20 KT. GUSTS END THIS EVENING...00Z TO
03Z.

          NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION...LIKELY WILL
BE ALL RAIN. OCCASIONAL GUSTS WITH THE SOUTHERLY WIND. HIGHER
CONFIDENCE WITH GUSTS WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT....AROUND
18Z. WIND 250 TO 270 TRUE WITH HIGHEST GUSTS AROUND 25 KT.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION...MAY BE ALL
RAIN...OR BRIEF RAIN SNOW MIX. NO ACCUMULATION. OCCASIONAL GUSTS
WITH THE SOUTHERLY WIND. HIGHER CONFIDENCE WITH GUSTS WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT....AROUND 18Z. WIND 250 TO 270 TRUE WITH
HIGHEST GUSTS AROUND 25 KT.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION
OCCURRING...HIGHER CONFIDENCE WILL BE ALL LIGHT SNOW...AND MAY
BRIEFLY LOWER VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS TO MARGINAL VFR...5SM...2500
FT. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION. OCCASIONAL GUSTS WITH THE SOUTHERLY
WIND. HIGHER CONFIDENCE WITH GUSTS WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT....AROUND 18Z. WIND 270 TO 290 TRUE WITH HIGHEST GUSTS AROUND
25 KT.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION
OCCURRING...HIGHER CONFIDENCE WILL BE ALL LIGHT SNOW...AND MAY
BRIEFLY LOWER VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS TO MARGINAL VFR...5SM...2500
FT. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION. OCCASIONAL GUSTS WITH THE SOUTHERLY
WIND. HIGHER CONFIDENCE WITH GUSTS WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT....AROUND 18Z. WIND 270 TO 290 TRUE WITH HIGHEST GUSTS AROUND
22 KT.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION
OCCURRING...HIGHER CONFIDENCE WILL BE ALL LIGHT SNOW AND MAY BRIEFLY
LOWER VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS TO MARGINAL VFR...4SM...2000 FT.
LITTLE ACCUMULATION. OCCASIONAL GUSTS WITH THE SOUTHERLY WIND.
HIGHER CONFIDENCE WITH GUSTS WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT....AROUND 18Z. WIND 270 TO 290 TRUE WITH HIGHEST GUSTS AROUND
22 KT.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION
OCCURRING...AND MAY BE ALL RAIN. OCCASIONAL AND MINIMAL GUSTS IN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW...TO AROUND 19 KT. HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF GUSTS WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT....AROUND 20Z. WIND 270 TO 290 TRUE WITH
HIGHEST GUSTS AROUND 25 KT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.LATE MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...VFR. LATE AFTERNOON TUESDAY
MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN DEVELOPING -RA/SN.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLE MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN -SN.
.WEDNESDAY...VFR.
.THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR...WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN -RA LATE IN
IN THE DAY AND AT NIGHT. POSSIBLE LLWS.
.FRIDAY...MVFR IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SW WIND INCREASE TODAY TO SCA LVLS...THEN WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW
THIS AFTN INTO THE EVE AS A CDFNT TRACKS THRU. WINDS DIMINISH THIS
EVE...BUT SEAS REMAIN ABV SCA LVLS ON THE OCEAN. SCA COND MAY
DEVELOP AGAIN ON ALL WATERS TUE AS LOW PRES TRACKS QUICKLY INTO
THE REGION. SEAS MAY BRIEFLY TOUGH 5 FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT SUB-SMALL CRAFT LEVEL CONDITIONS THROUGH
THURSDAY AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS OVER THE REGION. WIND
GUSTS AND WAVES INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE OCEAN WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TRACE AMTS TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT ARE EXPECTED
TODAY. A FEW TENTHS OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT IS POSSIBLE TUE AND TUE
NGT. THEREAFTER...NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS
FORECAST.

RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW BANK FULL...BUT
INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT WILL CONTINUE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT INTO
THIS WEEKEND. ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY
OCCUR...COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING
IS UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS
SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-
     335-338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/JMC
NEAR TERM...BC/JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...BC/JMC
HYDROLOGY...BC/JMC




000
FXUS61 KOKX 301047
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
647 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS LATE TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A QUICK MOVING LOW
ON TUE. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THEN...A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE AREA LATE
IN THE WEEK...INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FORECAST ON TRACK WITH JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO REFLECT
LATEST OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE...MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT PRODUCING A BATCH OF RADAR RETURNS ACROSS
UPSTATE NY INTO ERN PA THAT WILL TRAVERSE THE CWA DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. 00Z KOKX SOUNDING WAS DRY WITH ONLY 0.12
PW. LLVL MOISTURE CONFINED TO ERN LI AND CT WHERE FLOW OFF THE
OCEAN HAS PROVIDED SOME MOISTENING. PCPN COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO
BE SCT AND LGT. THE COLUMN APPEARS COLD ENOUGH BASED ON THE 00Z
MODELS TO ALLOW FOR SNOW SHWRS POSSIBLE MIXED WITH RAIN THRU
12Z...THEN TRANSITIONING TO MAINLY RAIN SHWRS THRU THE MRNG HRS AS
BOTH THE BL AND MID LVLS WARM. PCPN CHCS MAINLY TIL 16Z...THEN
THEY DROP QUICKLY.

THE CDFNT OVER OH AT 7Z REACHES ORANGE COUNTY PER THE 12Z NAM
RIGHT ABOUT 18Z. IT THEN SWEEPS ACROSS THE CWA AND CLEARS THE AREA
BY 00Z. ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE COULD PRODUCE A FEW HRS OF PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES BEFORE DARK. MOSTLY CLR SKIES OVERNIGHT BUT THE DATA
SUGGESTS WIND WILL KEEPS THINGS SLIGHTLY STIRRED UP...THEREBY
KEEPING TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT. AS A RESULT...LOWS CLOSE TO
GUIDANCE WERE USED WITH MINS ABOUT 5-7 DEGREES BLW CLIMO. IF WINDS
DECOUPLE...AT LEAST 5 DEGREES WILL NEED TO BE CHOPPED OFF THE FCST
ACROSS THE OUTLYING AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
SYS CURRENTLY OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL RACE TOWARDS THE
AREA WITH THE SFC LOW REACHING THE NYC LONGITUDE APPROXIMATELY 00Z
WED. THE 00Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF ARE ALL IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SPEED...BUT THE MODELS DIFFER WRT THE EXACT N-S TRACK. THE
ECMWF WAS THE FURTHEST S...WITH THE NAM AND GFS CLUSTERED CLOSELY
WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLES ACROSS CNTRL NJ. THE SREF MEAN WAS SLIGHLY
FURTHER N. POPS FOR INCREASED TO JUST BLW LIKELY BY LATE AFTN.
THIS TRACK COMBINED WITH THE THERMAL PROFILES ALOFT WOULD SUPPORT
A COLD ENOUGH COLUMN ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA FOR SNOW. WITH THE
BL INITIALLY WARM...LGT RAIN COULD MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO SNOW AS
STEADIER/HEAVIER PCPN MOVES IN. SRN AREAS...PARTICULARLY FROM WRN
NJ ZONES THRU THE CITY AND ONTO LI...TEMPS ALOFT MAY WARM FOR A
CHANGE BACK TO RAIN...OR IT MAY EVEN REMAIN ALL RAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. LATEST 00Z
FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATING THAT ANY RAIN OR SNOW...WILL CHANGE TO
ALL SNOW SHORTLY AFTER 00Z ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AS
COLD AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. QPF TOTALS ARE GENERALLY ON THE LOW
END WITH LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. ANY PRECIPITATION WILL
TAPER OFF LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY THEN MOVES OFFSHORE
THURSDAY...WITH RETURN FLOW AND MOIST AIR QUICKLY SPREADING NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
40S.

NEXT LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE LOCAL AREA LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...WITH RAIN CHANCES CONTINUING STRAIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S AND LOWS IN
THE LOW TO MID 40S. TEMPERATURES FALL BACK TO NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH EASTERN CANADA WILL BRING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON...17Z TO 22Z.

VFR...EXCEPT WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW WITH LOCAL
MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES...11Z TO 18Z...WEST TO EAST.
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOSTLY SNOW. LOW CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIPITATION
WILL OCCUR AT ANY PARTICULAR TERMINAL AND WILL NOT LAST MOST OF THE
TIME IN THE TEMPO GROUP.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 10 KT...BECOMING WEST TO
NORTHWEST...280 TO 300 TRUE...WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.
OCCASIONAL GUSTS WITH THE SOUTHERLY WIND THIS MORNING WILL BECOME
MORE FREQUENT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. HIGHEST GUSTS 20
TO 25 KT...MOST GUSTS AROUND 20 KT. GUSTS END THIS EVENING...00Z TO
03Z.

          NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION...LIKELY WILL
BE ALL RAIN. OCCASIONAL GUSTS WITH THE SOUTHERLY WIND. HIGHER
CONFIDENCE WITH GUSTS WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT....AROUND
18Z. WIND 250 TO 270 TRUE WITH HIGHEST GUSTS AROUND 25 KT.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION...MAY BE ALL
RAIN...OR BRIEF RAIN SNOW MIX. NO ACCUMULATION. OCCASIONAL GUSTS
WITH THE SOUTHERLY WIND. HIGHER CONFIDENCE WITH GUSTS WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT....AROUND 18Z. WIND 250 TO 270 TRUE WITH
HIGHEST GUSTS AROUND 25 KT.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION
OCCURRING...HIGHER CONFIDENCE WILL BE ALL LIGHT SNOW...AND MAY
BRIEFLY LOWER VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS TO MARGINAL VFR...5SM...2500
FT. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION. OCCASIONAL GUSTS WITH THE SOUTHERLY
WIND. HIGHER CONFIDENCE WITH GUSTS WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT....AROUND 18Z. WIND 270 TO 290 TRUE WITH HIGHEST GUSTS AROUND
25 KT.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION
OCCURRING...HIGHER CONFIDENCE WILL BE ALL LIGHT SNOW...AND MAY
BRIEFLY LOWER VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS TO MARGINAL VFR...5SM...2500
FT. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION. OCCASIONAL GUSTS WITH THE SOUTHERLY
WIND. HIGHER CONFIDENCE WITH GUSTS WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT....AROUND 18Z. WIND 270 TO 290 TRUE WITH HIGHEST GUSTS AROUND
22 KT.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION
OCCURRING...HIGHER CONFIDENCE WILL BE ALL LIGHT SNOW AND MAY BRIEFLY
LOWER VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS TO MARGINAL VFR...4SM...2000 FT.
LITTLE ACCUMULATION. OCCASIONAL GUSTS WITH THE SOUTHERLY WIND.
HIGHER CONFIDENCE WITH GUSTS WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT....AROUND 18Z. WIND 270 TO 290 TRUE WITH HIGHEST GUSTS AROUND
22 KT.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION
OCCURRING...AND MAY BE ALL RAIN. OCCASIONAL AND MINIMAL GUSTS IN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW...TO AROUND 19 KT. HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF GUSTS WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT....AROUND 20Z. WIND 270 TO 290 TRUE WITH
HIGHEST GUSTS AROUND 25 KT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.LATE MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...VFR. LATE AFTERNOON TUESDAY
MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN DEVELOPING -RA/SN.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLE MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN -SN.
.WEDNESDAY...VFR.
.THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR...WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN -RA LATE IN
IN THE DAY AND AT NIGHT. POSSIBLE LLWS.
.FRIDAY...MVFR IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SW WIND INCREASE TODAY TO SCA LVLS...THEN WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW
THIS AFTN INTO THE EVE AS A CDFNT TRACKS THRU. WINDS DIMINISH THIS
EVE...BUT SEAS REMAIN ABV SCA LVLS ON THE OCEAN. SCA COND MAY
DEVELOP AGAIN ON ALL WATERS TUE AS LOW PRES TRACKS QUICKLY INTO
THE REGION. SEAS MAY BRIEFLY TOUGH 5 FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT SUB-SMALL CRAFT LEVEL CONDITIONS THROUGH
THURSDAY AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS OVER THE REGION. WIND
GUSTS AND WAVES INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE OCEAN WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TRACE AMTS TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT ARE EXPECTED
TODAY. A FEW TENTHS OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT IS POSSIBLE TUE AND TUE
NGT. THEREAFTER...NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS
FORECAST.

RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW BANK FULL...BUT
INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT WILL CONTINUE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT INTO
THIS WEEKEND. ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY
OCCUR...COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING
IS UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS
SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-
     335-338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/JMC
NEAR TERM...BC/JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...BC/JMC
HYDROLOGY...BC/JMC




000
FXUS61 KOKX 301047
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
647 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS LATE TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A QUICK MOVING LOW
ON TUE. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THEN...A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE AREA LATE
IN THE WEEK...INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FORECAST ON TRACK WITH JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO REFLECT
LATEST OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE...MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT PRODUCING A BATCH OF RADAR RETURNS ACROSS
UPSTATE NY INTO ERN PA THAT WILL TRAVERSE THE CWA DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. 00Z KOKX SOUNDING WAS DRY WITH ONLY 0.12
PW. LLVL MOISTURE CONFINED TO ERN LI AND CT WHERE FLOW OFF THE
OCEAN HAS PROVIDED SOME MOISTENING. PCPN COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO
BE SCT AND LGT. THE COLUMN APPEARS COLD ENOUGH BASED ON THE 00Z
MODELS TO ALLOW FOR SNOW SHWRS POSSIBLE MIXED WITH RAIN THRU
12Z...THEN TRANSITIONING TO MAINLY RAIN SHWRS THRU THE MRNG HRS AS
BOTH THE BL AND MID LVLS WARM. PCPN CHCS MAINLY TIL 16Z...THEN
THEY DROP QUICKLY.

THE CDFNT OVER OH AT 7Z REACHES ORANGE COUNTY PER THE 12Z NAM
RIGHT ABOUT 18Z. IT THEN SWEEPS ACROSS THE CWA AND CLEARS THE AREA
BY 00Z. ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE COULD PRODUCE A FEW HRS OF PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES BEFORE DARK. MOSTLY CLR SKIES OVERNIGHT BUT THE DATA
SUGGESTS WIND WILL KEEPS THINGS SLIGHTLY STIRRED UP...THEREBY
KEEPING TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT. AS A RESULT...LOWS CLOSE TO
GUIDANCE WERE USED WITH MINS ABOUT 5-7 DEGREES BLW CLIMO. IF WINDS
DECOUPLE...AT LEAST 5 DEGREES WILL NEED TO BE CHOPPED OFF THE FCST
ACROSS THE OUTLYING AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
SYS CURRENTLY OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL RACE TOWARDS THE
AREA WITH THE SFC LOW REACHING THE NYC LONGITUDE APPROXIMATELY 00Z
WED. THE 00Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF ARE ALL IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SPEED...BUT THE MODELS DIFFER WRT THE EXACT N-S TRACK. THE
ECMWF WAS THE FURTHEST S...WITH THE NAM AND GFS CLUSTERED CLOSELY
WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLES ACROSS CNTRL NJ. THE SREF MEAN WAS SLIGHLY
FURTHER N. POPS FOR INCREASED TO JUST BLW LIKELY BY LATE AFTN.
THIS TRACK COMBINED WITH THE THERMAL PROFILES ALOFT WOULD SUPPORT
A COLD ENOUGH COLUMN ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA FOR SNOW. WITH THE
BL INITIALLY WARM...LGT RAIN COULD MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO SNOW AS
STEADIER/HEAVIER PCPN MOVES IN. SRN AREAS...PARTICULARLY FROM WRN
NJ ZONES THRU THE CITY AND ONTO LI...TEMPS ALOFT MAY WARM FOR A
CHANGE BACK TO RAIN...OR IT MAY EVEN REMAIN ALL RAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. LATEST 00Z
FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATING THAT ANY RAIN OR SNOW...WILL CHANGE TO
ALL SNOW SHORTLY AFTER 00Z ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AS
COLD AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. QPF TOTALS ARE GENERALLY ON THE LOW
END WITH LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. ANY PRECIPITATION WILL
TAPER OFF LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY THEN MOVES OFFSHORE
THURSDAY...WITH RETURN FLOW AND MOIST AIR QUICKLY SPREADING NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
40S.

NEXT LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE LOCAL AREA LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...WITH RAIN CHANCES CONTINUING STRAIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S AND LOWS IN
THE LOW TO MID 40S. TEMPERATURES FALL BACK TO NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH EASTERN CANADA WILL BRING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON...17Z TO 22Z.

VFR...EXCEPT WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW WITH LOCAL
MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES...11Z TO 18Z...WEST TO EAST.
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOSTLY SNOW. LOW CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIPITATION
WILL OCCUR AT ANY PARTICULAR TERMINAL AND WILL NOT LAST MOST OF THE
TIME IN THE TEMPO GROUP.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 10 KT...BECOMING WEST TO
NORTHWEST...280 TO 300 TRUE...WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.
OCCASIONAL GUSTS WITH THE SOUTHERLY WIND THIS MORNING WILL BECOME
MORE FREQUENT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. HIGHEST GUSTS 20
TO 25 KT...MOST GUSTS AROUND 20 KT. GUSTS END THIS EVENING...00Z TO
03Z.

          NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION...LIKELY WILL
BE ALL RAIN. OCCASIONAL GUSTS WITH THE SOUTHERLY WIND. HIGHER
CONFIDENCE WITH GUSTS WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT....AROUND
18Z. WIND 250 TO 270 TRUE WITH HIGHEST GUSTS AROUND 25 KT.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION...MAY BE ALL
RAIN...OR BRIEF RAIN SNOW MIX. NO ACCUMULATION. OCCASIONAL GUSTS
WITH THE SOUTHERLY WIND. HIGHER CONFIDENCE WITH GUSTS WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT....AROUND 18Z. WIND 250 TO 270 TRUE WITH
HIGHEST GUSTS AROUND 25 KT.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION
OCCURRING...HIGHER CONFIDENCE WILL BE ALL LIGHT SNOW...AND MAY
BRIEFLY LOWER VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS TO MARGINAL VFR...5SM...2500
FT. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION. OCCASIONAL GUSTS WITH THE SOUTHERLY
WIND. HIGHER CONFIDENCE WITH GUSTS WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT....AROUND 18Z. WIND 270 TO 290 TRUE WITH HIGHEST GUSTS AROUND
25 KT.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION
OCCURRING...HIGHER CONFIDENCE WILL BE ALL LIGHT SNOW...AND MAY
BRIEFLY LOWER VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS TO MARGINAL VFR...5SM...2500
FT. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION. OCCASIONAL GUSTS WITH THE SOUTHERLY
WIND. HIGHER CONFIDENCE WITH GUSTS WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT....AROUND 18Z. WIND 270 TO 290 TRUE WITH HIGHEST GUSTS AROUND
22 KT.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION
OCCURRING...HIGHER CONFIDENCE WILL BE ALL LIGHT SNOW AND MAY BRIEFLY
LOWER VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS TO MARGINAL VFR...4SM...2000 FT.
LITTLE ACCUMULATION. OCCASIONAL GUSTS WITH THE SOUTHERLY WIND.
HIGHER CONFIDENCE WITH GUSTS WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT....AROUND 18Z. WIND 270 TO 290 TRUE WITH HIGHEST GUSTS AROUND
22 KT.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION
OCCURRING...AND MAY BE ALL RAIN. OCCASIONAL AND MINIMAL GUSTS IN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW...TO AROUND 19 KT. HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF GUSTS WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT....AROUND 20Z. WIND 270 TO 290 TRUE WITH
HIGHEST GUSTS AROUND 25 KT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.LATE MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...VFR. LATE AFTERNOON TUESDAY
MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN DEVELOPING -RA/SN.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLE MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN -SN.
.WEDNESDAY...VFR.
.THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR...WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN -RA LATE IN
IN THE DAY AND AT NIGHT. POSSIBLE LLWS.
.FRIDAY...MVFR IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SW WIND INCREASE TODAY TO SCA LVLS...THEN WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW
THIS AFTN INTO THE EVE AS A CDFNT TRACKS THRU. WINDS DIMINISH THIS
EVE...BUT SEAS REMAIN ABV SCA LVLS ON THE OCEAN. SCA COND MAY
DEVELOP AGAIN ON ALL WATERS TUE AS LOW PRES TRACKS QUICKLY INTO
THE REGION. SEAS MAY BRIEFLY TOUGH 5 FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT SUB-SMALL CRAFT LEVEL CONDITIONS THROUGH
THURSDAY AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS OVER THE REGION. WIND
GUSTS AND WAVES INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE OCEAN WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TRACE AMTS TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT ARE EXPECTED
TODAY. A FEW TENTHS OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT IS POSSIBLE TUE AND TUE
NGT. THEREAFTER...NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS
FORECAST.

RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW BANK FULL...BUT
INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT WILL CONTINUE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT INTO
THIS WEEKEND. ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY
OCCUR...COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING
IS UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS
SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-
     335-338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/JMC
NEAR TERM...BC/JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...BC/JMC
HYDROLOGY...BC/JMC




000
FXUS61 KOKX 301047
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
647 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS LATE TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A QUICK MOVING LOW
ON TUE. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THEN...A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE AREA LATE
IN THE WEEK...INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FORECAST ON TRACK WITH JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO REFLECT
LATEST OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE...MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT PRODUCING A BATCH OF RADAR RETURNS ACROSS
UPSTATE NY INTO ERN PA THAT WILL TRAVERSE THE CWA DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. 00Z KOKX SOUNDING WAS DRY WITH ONLY 0.12
PW. LLVL MOISTURE CONFINED TO ERN LI AND CT WHERE FLOW OFF THE
OCEAN HAS PROVIDED SOME MOISTENING. PCPN COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO
BE SCT AND LGT. THE COLUMN APPEARS COLD ENOUGH BASED ON THE 00Z
MODELS TO ALLOW FOR SNOW SHWRS POSSIBLE MIXED WITH RAIN THRU
12Z...THEN TRANSITIONING TO MAINLY RAIN SHWRS THRU THE MRNG HRS AS
BOTH THE BL AND MID LVLS WARM. PCPN CHCS MAINLY TIL 16Z...THEN
THEY DROP QUICKLY.

THE CDFNT OVER OH AT 7Z REACHES ORANGE COUNTY PER THE 12Z NAM
RIGHT ABOUT 18Z. IT THEN SWEEPS ACROSS THE CWA AND CLEARS THE AREA
BY 00Z. ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE COULD PRODUCE A FEW HRS OF PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES BEFORE DARK. MOSTLY CLR SKIES OVERNIGHT BUT THE DATA
SUGGESTS WIND WILL KEEPS THINGS SLIGHTLY STIRRED UP...THEREBY
KEEPING TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT. AS A RESULT...LOWS CLOSE TO
GUIDANCE WERE USED WITH MINS ABOUT 5-7 DEGREES BLW CLIMO. IF WINDS
DECOUPLE...AT LEAST 5 DEGREES WILL NEED TO BE CHOPPED OFF THE FCST
ACROSS THE OUTLYING AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
SYS CURRENTLY OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL RACE TOWARDS THE
AREA WITH THE SFC LOW REACHING THE NYC LONGITUDE APPROXIMATELY 00Z
WED. THE 00Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF ARE ALL IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SPEED...BUT THE MODELS DIFFER WRT THE EXACT N-S TRACK. THE
ECMWF WAS THE FURTHEST S...WITH THE NAM AND GFS CLUSTERED CLOSELY
WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLES ACROSS CNTRL NJ. THE SREF MEAN WAS SLIGHLY
FURTHER N. POPS FOR INCREASED TO JUST BLW LIKELY BY LATE AFTN.
THIS TRACK COMBINED WITH THE THERMAL PROFILES ALOFT WOULD SUPPORT
A COLD ENOUGH COLUMN ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA FOR SNOW. WITH THE
BL INITIALLY WARM...LGT RAIN COULD MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO SNOW AS
STEADIER/HEAVIER PCPN MOVES IN. SRN AREAS...PARTICULARLY FROM WRN
NJ ZONES THRU THE CITY AND ONTO LI...TEMPS ALOFT MAY WARM FOR A
CHANGE BACK TO RAIN...OR IT MAY EVEN REMAIN ALL RAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. LATEST 00Z
FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATING THAT ANY RAIN OR SNOW...WILL CHANGE TO
ALL SNOW SHORTLY AFTER 00Z ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AS
COLD AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. QPF TOTALS ARE GENERALLY ON THE LOW
END WITH LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. ANY PRECIPITATION WILL
TAPER OFF LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY THEN MOVES OFFSHORE
THURSDAY...WITH RETURN FLOW AND MOIST AIR QUICKLY SPREADING NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
40S.

NEXT LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE LOCAL AREA LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...WITH RAIN CHANCES CONTINUING STRAIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S AND LOWS IN
THE LOW TO MID 40S. TEMPERATURES FALL BACK TO NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH EASTERN CANADA WILL BRING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON...17Z TO 22Z.

VFR...EXCEPT WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW WITH LOCAL
MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES...11Z TO 18Z...WEST TO EAST.
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOSTLY SNOW. LOW CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIPITATION
WILL OCCUR AT ANY PARTICULAR TERMINAL AND WILL NOT LAST MOST OF THE
TIME IN THE TEMPO GROUP.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 10 KT...BECOMING WEST TO
NORTHWEST...280 TO 300 TRUE...WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.
OCCASIONAL GUSTS WITH THE SOUTHERLY WIND THIS MORNING WILL BECOME
MORE FREQUENT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. HIGHEST GUSTS 20
TO 25 KT...MOST GUSTS AROUND 20 KT. GUSTS END THIS EVENING...00Z TO
03Z.

          NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION...LIKELY WILL
BE ALL RAIN. OCCASIONAL GUSTS WITH THE SOUTHERLY WIND. HIGHER
CONFIDENCE WITH GUSTS WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT....AROUND
18Z. WIND 250 TO 270 TRUE WITH HIGHEST GUSTS AROUND 25 KT.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION...MAY BE ALL
RAIN...OR BRIEF RAIN SNOW MIX. NO ACCUMULATION. OCCASIONAL GUSTS
WITH THE SOUTHERLY WIND. HIGHER CONFIDENCE WITH GUSTS WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT....AROUND 18Z. WIND 250 TO 270 TRUE WITH
HIGHEST GUSTS AROUND 25 KT.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION
OCCURRING...HIGHER CONFIDENCE WILL BE ALL LIGHT SNOW...AND MAY
BRIEFLY LOWER VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS TO MARGINAL VFR...5SM...2500
FT. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION. OCCASIONAL GUSTS WITH THE SOUTHERLY
WIND. HIGHER CONFIDENCE WITH GUSTS WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT....AROUND 18Z. WIND 270 TO 290 TRUE WITH HIGHEST GUSTS AROUND
25 KT.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION
OCCURRING...HIGHER CONFIDENCE WILL BE ALL LIGHT SNOW...AND MAY
BRIEFLY LOWER VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS TO MARGINAL VFR...5SM...2500
FT. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION. OCCASIONAL GUSTS WITH THE SOUTHERLY
WIND. HIGHER CONFIDENCE WITH GUSTS WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT....AROUND 18Z. WIND 270 TO 290 TRUE WITH HIGHEST GUSTS AROUND
22 KT.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION
OCCURRING...HIGHER CONFIDENCE WILL BE ALL LIGHT SNOW AND MAY BRIEFLY
LOWER VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS TO MARGINAL VFR...4SM...2000 FT.
LITTLE ACCUMULATION. OCCASIONAL GUSTS WITH THE SOUTHERLY WIND.
HIGHER CONFIDENCE WITH GUSTS WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT....AROUND 18Z. WIND 270 TO 290 TRUE WITH HIGHEST GUSTS AROUND
22 KT.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION
OCCURRING...AND MAY BE ALL RAIN. OCCASIONAL AND MINIMAL GUSTS IN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW...TO AROUND 19 KT. HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF GUSTS WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT....AROUND 20Z. WIND 270 TO 290 TRUE WITH
HIGHEST GUSTS AROUND 25 KT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.LATE MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...VFR. LATE AFTERNOON TUESDAY
MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN DEVELOPING -RA/SN.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLE MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN -SN.
.WEDNESDAY...VFR.
.THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR...WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN -RA LATE IN
IN THE DAY AND AT NIGHT. POSSIBLE LLWS.
.FRIDAY...MVFR IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SW WIND INCREASE TODAY TO SCA LVLS...THEN WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW
THIS AFTN INTO THE EVE AS A CDFNT TRACKS THRU. WINDS DIMINISH THIS
EVE...BUT SEAS REMAIN ABV SCA LVLS ON THE OCEAN. SCA COND MAY
DEVELOP AGAIN ON ALL WATERS TUE AS LOW PRES TRACKS QUICKLY INTO
THE REGION. SEAS MAY BRIEFLY TOUGH 5 FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT SUB-SMALL CRAFT LEVEL CONDITIONS THROUGH
THURSDAY AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS OVER THE REGION. WIND
GUSTS AND WAVES INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE OCEAN WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TRACE AMTS TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT ARE EXPECTED
TODAY. A FEW TENTHS OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT IS POSSIBLE TUE AND TUE
NGT. THEREAFTER...NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS
FORECAST.

RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW BANK FULL...BUT
INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT WILL CONTINUE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT INTO
THIS WEEKEND. ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY
OCCUR...COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING
IS UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS
SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-
     335-338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/JMC
NEAR TERM...BC/JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...BC/JMC
HYDROLOGY...BC/JMC




000
FXUS61 KOKX 301047
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
647 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS LATE TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A QUICK MOVING LOW
ON TUE. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THEN...A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE AREA LATE
IN THE WEEK...INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FORECAST ON TRACK WITH JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO REFLECT
LATEST OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE...MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT PRODUCING A BATCH OF RADAR RETURNS ACROSS
UPSTATE NY INTO ERN PA THAT WILL TRAVERSE THE CWA DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. 00Z KOKX SOUNDING WAS DRY WITH ONLY 0.12
PW. LLVL MOISTURE CONFINED TO ERN LI AND CT WHERE FLOW OFF THE
OCEAN HAS PROVIDED SOME MOISTENING. PCPN COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO
BE SCT AND LGT. THE COLUMN APPEARS COLD ENOUGH BASED ON THE 00Z
MODELS TO ALLOW FOR SNOW SHWRS POSSIBLE MIXED WITH RAIN THRU
12Z...THEN TRANSITIONING TO MAINLY RAIN SHWRS THRU THE MRNG HRS AS
BOTH THE BL AND MID LVLS WARM. PCPN CHCS MAINLY TIL 16Z...THEN
THEY DROP QUICKLY.

THE CDFNT OVER OH AT 7Z REACHES ORANGE COUNTY PER THE 12Z NAM
RIGHT ABOUT 18Z. IT THEN SWEEPS ACROSS THE CWA AND CLEARS THE AREA
BY 00Z. ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE COULD PRODUCE A FEW HRS OF PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES BEFORE DARK. MOSTLY CLR SKIES OVERNIGHT BUT THE DATA
SUGGESTS WIND WILL KEEPS THINGS SLIGHTLY STIRRED UP...THEREBY
KEEPING TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT. AS A RESULT...LOWS CLOSE TO
GUIDANCE WERE USED WITH MINS ABOUT 5-7 DEGREES BLW CLIMO. IF WINDS
DECOUPLE...AT LEAST 5 DEGREES WILL NEED TO BE CHOPPED OFF THE FCST
ACROSS THE OUTLYING AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
SYS CURRENTLY OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL RACE TOWARDS THE
AREA WITH THE SFC LOW REACHING THE NYC LONGITUDE APPROXIMATELY 00Z
WED. THE 00Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF ARE ALL IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SPEED...BUT THE MODELS DIFFER WRT THE EXACT N-S TRACK. THE
ECMWF WAS THE FURTHEST S...WITH THE NAM AND GFS CLUSTERED CLOSELY
WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLES ACROSS CNTRL NJ. THE SREF MEAN WAS SLIGHLY
FURTHER N. POPS FOR INCREASED TO JUST BLW LIKELY BY LATE AFTN.
THIS TRACK COMBINED WITH THE THERMAL PROFILES ALOFT WOULD SUPPORT
A COLD ENOUGH COLUMN ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA FOR SNOW. WITH THE
BL INITIALLY WARM...LGT RAIN COULD MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO SNOW AS
STEADIER/HEAVIER PCPN MOVES IN. SRN AREAS...PARTICULARLY FROM WRN
NJ ZONES THRU THE CITY AND ONTO LI...TEMPS ALOFT MAY WARM FOR A
CHANGE BACK TO RAIN...OR IT MAY EVEN REMAIN ALL RAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. LATEST 00Z
FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATING THAT ANY RAIN OR SNOW...WILL CHANGE TO
ALL SNOW SHORTLY AFTER 00Z ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AS
COLD AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. QPF TOTALS ARE GENERALLY ON THE LOW
END WITH LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. ANY PRECIPITATION WILL
TAPER OFF LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY THEN MOVES OFFSHORE
THURSDAY...WITH RETURN FLOW AND MOIST AIR QUICKLY SPREADING NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
40S.

NEXT LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE LOCAL AREA LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...WITH RAIN CHANCES CONTINUING STRAIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S AND LOWS IN
THE LOW TO MID 40S. TEMPERATURES FALL BACK TO NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH EASTERN CANADA WILL BRING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON...17Z TO 22Z.

VFR...EXCEPT WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW WITH LOCAL
MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES...11Z TO 18Z...WEST TO EAST.
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOSTLY SNOW. LOW CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIPITATION
WILL OCCUR AT ANY PARTICULAR TERMINAL AND WILL NOT LAST MOST OF THE
TIME IN THE TEMPO GROUP.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 10 KT...BECOMING WEST TO
NORTHWEST...280 TO 300 TRUE...WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.
OCCASIONAL GUSTS WITH THE SOUTHERLY WIND THIS MORNING WILL BECOME
MORE FREQUENT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. HIGHEST GUSTS 20
TO 25 KT...MOST GUSTS AROUND 20 KT. GUSTS END THIS EVENING...00Z TO
03Z.

          NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION...LIKELY WILL
BE ALL RAIN. OCCASIONAL GUSTS WITH THE SOUTHERLY WIND. HIGHER
CONFIDENCE WITH GUSTS WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT....AROUND
18Z. WIND 250 TO 270 TRUE WITH HIGHEST GUSTS AROUND 25 KT.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION...MAY BE ALL
RAIN...OR BRIEF RAIN SNOW MIX. NO ACCUMULATION. OCCASIONAL GUSTS
WITH THE SOUTHERLY WIND. HIGHER CONFIDENCE WITH GUSTS WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT....AROUND 18Z. WIND 250 TO 270 TRUE WITH
HIGHEST GUSTS AROUND 25 KT.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION
OCCURRING...HIGHER CONFIDENCE WILL BE ALL LIGHT SNOW...AND MAY
BRIEFLY LOWER VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS TO MARGINAL VFR...5SM...2500
FT. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION. OCCASIONAL GUSTS WITH THE SOUTHERLY
WIND. HIGHER CONFIDENCE WITH GUSTS WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT....AROUND 18Z. WIND 270 TO 290 TRUE WITH HIGHEST GUSTS AROUND
25 KT.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION
OCCURRING...HIGHER CONFIDENCE WILL BE ALL LIGHT SNOW...AND MAY
BRIEFLY LOWER VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS TO MARGINAL VFR...5SM...2500
FT. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION. OCCASIONAL GUSTS WITH THE SOUTHERLY
WIND. HIGHER CONFIDENCE WITH GUSTS WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT....AROUND 18Z. WIND 270 TO 290 TRUE WITH HIGHEST GUSTS AROUND
22 KT.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION
OCCURRING...HIGHER CONFIDENCE WILL BE ALL LIGHT SNOW AND MAY BRIEFLY
LOWER VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS TO MARGINAL VFR...4SM...2000 FT.
LITTLE ACCUMULATION. OCCASIONAL GUSTS WITH THE SOUTHERLY WIND.
HIGHER CONFIDENCE WITH GUSTS WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT....AROUND 18Z. WIND 270 TO 290 TRUE WITH HIGHEST GUSTS AROUND
22 KT.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION
OCCURRING...AND MAY BE ALL RAIN. OCCASIONAL AND MINIMAL GUSTS IN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW...TO AROUND 19 KT. HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF GUSTS WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT....AROUND 20Z. WIND 270 TO 290 TRUE WITH
HIGHEST GUSTS AROUND 25 KT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.LATE MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...VFR. LATE AFTERNOON TUESDAY
MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN DEVELOPING -RA/SN.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLE MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN -SN.
.WEDNESDAY...VFR.
.THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR...WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN -RA LATE IN
IN THE DAY AND AT NIGHT. POSSIBLE LLWS.
.FRIDAY...MVFR IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SW WIND INCREASE TODAY TO SCA LVLS...THEN WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW
THIS AFTN INTO THE EVE AS A CDFNT TRACKS THRU. WINDS DIMINISH THIS
EVE...BUT SEAS REMAIN ABV SCA LVLS ON THE OCEAN. SCA COND MAY
DEVELOP AGAIN ON ALL WATERS TUE AS LOW PRES TRACKS QUICKLY INTO
THE REGION. SEAS MAY BRIEFLY TOUGH 5 FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT SUB-SMALL CRAFT LEVEL CONDITIONS THROUGH
THURSDAY AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS OVER THE REGION. WIND
GUSTS AND WAVES INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE OCEAN WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TRACE AMTS TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT ARE EXPECTED
TODAY. A FEW TENTHS OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT IS POSSIBLE TUE AND TUE
NGT. THEREAFTER...NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS
FORECAST.

RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW BANK FULL...BUT
INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT WILL CONTINUE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT INTO
THIS WEEKEND. ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY
OCCUR...COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING
IS UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS
SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-
     335-338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/JMC
NEAR TERM...BC/JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...BC/JMC
HYDROLOGY...BC/JMC




000
FXUS61 KOKX 301047
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
647 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS LATE TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A QUICK MOVING LOW
ON TUE. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THEN...A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE AREA LATE
IN THE WEEK...INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FORECAST ON TRACK WITH JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO REFLECT
LATEST OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE...MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT PRODUCING A BATCH OF RADAR RETURNS ACROSS
UPSTATE NY INTO ERN PA THAT WILL TRAVERSE THE CWA DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. 00Z KOKX SOUNDING WAS DRY WITH ONLY 0.12
PW. LLVL MOISTURE CONFINED TO ERN LI AND CT WHERE FLOW OFF THE
OCEAN HAS PROVIDED SOME MOISTENING. PCPN COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO
BE SCT AND LGT. THE COLUMN APPEARS COLD ENOUGH BASED ON THE 00Z
MODELS TO ALLOW FOR SNOW SHWRS POSSIBLE MIXED WITH RAIN THRU
12Z...THEN TRANSITIONING TO MAINLY RAIN SHWRS THRU THE MRNG HRS AS
BOTH THE BL AND MID LVLS WARM. PCPN CHCS MAINLY TIL 16Z...THEN
THEY DROP QUICKLY.

THE CDFNT OVER OH AT 7Z REACHES ORANGE COUNTY PER THE 12Z NAM
RIGHT ABOUT 18Z. IT THEN SWEEPS ACROSS THE CWA AND CLEARS THE AREA
BY 00Z. ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE COULD PRODUCE A FEW HRS OF PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES BEFORE DARK. MOSTLY CLR SKIES OVERNIGHT BUT THE DATA
SUGGESTS WIND WILL KEEPS THINGS SLIGHTLY STIRRED UP...THEREBY
KEEPING TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT. AS A RESULT...LOWS CLOSE TO
GUIDANCE WERE USED WITH MINS ABOUT 5-7 DEGREES BLW CLIMO. IF WINDS
DECOUPLE...AT LEAST 5 DEGREES WILL NEED TO BE CHOPPED OFF THE FCST
ACROSS THE OUTLYING AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
SYS CURRENTLY OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL RACE TOWARDS THE
AREA WITH THE SFC LOW REACHING THE NYC LONGITUDE APPROXIMATELY 00Z
WED. THE 00Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF ARE ALL IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SPEED...BUT THE MODELS DIFFER WRT THE EXACT N-S TRACK. THE
ECMWF WAS THE FURTHEST S...WITH THE NAM AND GFS CLUSTERED CLOSELY
WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLES ACROSS CNTRL NJ. THE SREF MEAN WAS SLIGHLY
FURTHER N. POPS FOR INCREASED TO JUST BLW LIKELY BY LATE AFTN.
THIS TRACK COMBINED WITH THE THERMAL PROFILES ALOFT WOULD SUPPORT
A COLD ENOUGH COLUMN ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA FOR SNOW. WITH THE
BL INITIALLY WARM...LGT RAIN COULD MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO SNOW AS
STEADIER/HEAVIER PCPN MOVES IN. SRN AREAS...PARTICULARLY FROM WRN
NJ ZONES THRU THE CITY AND ONTO LI...TEMPS ALOFT MAY WARM FOR A
CHANGE BACK TO RAIN...OR IT MAY EVEN REMAIN ALL RAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. LATEST 00Z
FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATING THAT ANY RAIN OR SNOW...WILL CHANGE TO
ALL SNOW SHORTLY AFTER 00Z ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AS
COLD AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. QPF TOTALS ARE GENERALLY ON THE LOW
END WITH LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. ANY PRECIPITATION WILL
TAPER OFF LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY THEN MOVES OFFSHORE
THURSDAY...WITH RETURN FLOW AND MOIST AIR QUICKLY SPREADING NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
40S.

NEXT LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE LOCAL AREA LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...WITH RAIN CHANCES CONTINUING STRAIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S AND LOWS IN
THE LOW TO MID 40S. TEMPERATURES FALL BACK TO NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH EASTERN CANADA WILL BRING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON...17Z TO 22Z.

VFR...EXCEPT WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW WITH LOCAL
MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES...11Z TO 18Z...WEST TO EAST.
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOSTLY SNOW. LOW CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIPITATION
WILL OCCUR AT ANY PARTICULAR TERMINAL AND WILL NOT LAST MOST OF THE
TIME IN THE TEMPO GROUP.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 10 KT...BECOMING WEST TO
NORTHWEST...280 TO 300 TRUE...WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.
OCCASIONAL GUSTS WITH THE SOUTHERLY WIND THIS MORNING WILL BECOME
MORE FREQUENT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. HIGHEST GUSTS 20
TO 25 KT...MOST GUSTS AROUND 20 KT. GUSTS END THIS EVENING...00Z TO
03Z.

          NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION...LIKELY WILL
BE ALL RAIN. OCCASIONAL GUSTS WITH THE SOUTHERLY WIND. HIGHER
CONFIDENCE WITH GUSTS WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT....AROUND
18Z. WIND 250 TO 270 TRUE WITH HIGHEST GUSTS AROUND 25 KT.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION...MAY BE ALL
RAIN...OR BRIEF RAIN SNOW MIX. NO ACCUMULATION. OCCASIONAL GUSTS
WITH THE SOUTHERLY WIND. HIGHER CONFIDENCE WITH GUSTS WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT....AROUND 18Z. WIND 250 TO 270 TRUE WITH
HIGHEST GUSTS AROUND 25 KT.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION
OCCURRING...HIGHER CONFIDENCE WILL BE ALL LIGHT SNOW...AND MAY
BRIEFLY LOWER VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS TO MARGINAL VFR...5SM...2500
FT. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION. OCCASIONAL GUSTS WITH THE SOUTHERLY
WIND. HIGHER CONFIDENCE WITH GUSTS WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT....AROUND 18Z. WIND 270 TO 290 TRUE WITH HIGHEST GUSTS AROUND
25 KT.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION
OCCURRING...HIGHER CONFIDENCE WILL BE ALL LIGHT SNOW...AND MAY
BRIEFLY LOWER VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS TO MARGINAL VFR...5SM...2500
FT. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION. OCCASIONAL GUSTS WITH THE SOUTHERLY
WIND. HIGHER CONFIDENCE WITH GUSTS WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT....AROUND 18Z. WIND 270 TO 290 TRUE WITH HIGHEST GUSTS AROUND
22 KT.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION
OCCURRING...HIGHER CONFIDENCE WILL BE ALL LIGHT SNOW AND MAY BRIEFLY
LOWER VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS TO MARGINAL VFR...4SM...2000 FT.
LITTLE ACCUMULATION. OCCASIONAL GUSTS WITH THE SOUTHERLY WIND.
HIGHER CONFIDENCE WITH GUSTS WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT....AROUND 18Z. WIND 270 TO 290 TRUE WITH HIGHEST GUSTS AROUND
22 KT.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION
OCCURRING...AND MAY BE ALL RAIN. OCCASIONAL AND MINIMAL GUSTS IN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW...TO AROUND 19 KT. HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF GUSTS WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT....AROUND 20Z. WIND 270 TO 290 TRUE WITH
HIGHEST GUSTS AROUND 25 KT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.LATE MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...VFR. LATE AFTERNOON TUESDAY
MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN DEVELOPING -RA/SN.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLE MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN -SN.
.WEDNESDAY...VFR.
.THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR...WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN -RA LATE IN
IN THE DAY AND AT NIGHT. POSSIBLE LLWS.
.FRIDAY...MVFR IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SW WIND INCREASE TODAY TO SCA LVLS...THEN WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW
THIS AFTN INTO THE EVE AS A CDFNT TRACKS THRU. WINDS DIMINISH THIS
EVE...BUT SEAS REMAIN ABV SCA LVLS ON THE OCEAN. SCA COND MAY
DEVELOP AGAIN ON ALL WATERS TUE AS LOW PRES TRACKS QUICKLY INTO
THE REGION. SEAS MAY BRIEFLY TOUGH 5 FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT SUB-SMALL CRAFT LEVEL CONDITIONS THROUGH
THURSDAY AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS OVER THE REGION. WIND
GUSTS AND WAVES INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE OCEAN WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TRACE AMTS TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT ARE EXPECTED
TODAY. A FEW TENTHS OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT IS POSSIBLE TUE AND TUE
NGT. THEREAFTER...NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS
FORECAST.

RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW BANK FULL...BUT
INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT WILL CONTINUE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT INTO
THIS WEEKEND. ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY
OCCUR...COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING
IS UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS
SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-
     335-338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/JMC
NEAR TERM...BC/JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...BC/JMC
HYDROLOGY...BC/JMC




000
FXUS61 KOKX 301047
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
647 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS LATE TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A QUICK MOVING LOW
ON TUE. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THEN...A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE AREA LATE
IN THE WEEK...INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FORECAST ON TRACK WITH JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO REFLECT
LATEST OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE...MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT PRODUCING A BATCH OF RADAR RETURNS ACROSS
UPSTATE NY INTO ERN PA THAT WILL TRAVERSE THE CWA DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. 00Z KOKX SOUNDING WAS DRY WITH ONLY 0.12
PW. LLVL MOISTURE CONFINED TO ERN LI AND CT WHERE FLOW OFF THE
OCEAN HAS PROVIDED SOME MOISTENING. PCPN COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO
BE SCT AND LGT. THE COLUMN APPEARS COLD ENOUGH BASED ON THE 00Z
MODELS TO ALLOW FOR SNOW SHWRS POSSIBLE MIXED WITH RAIN THRU
12Z...THEN TRANSITIONING TO MAINLY RAIN SHWRS THRU THE MRNG HRS AS
BOTH THE BL AND MID LVLS WARM. PCPN CHCS MAINLY TIL 16Z...THEN
THEY DROP QUICKLY.

THE CDFNT OVER OH AT 7Z REACHES ORANGE COUNTY PER THE 12Z NAM
RIGHT ABOUT 18Z. IT THEN SWEEPS ACROSS THE CWA AND CLEARS THE AREA
BY 00Z. ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE COULD PRODUCE A FEW HRS OF PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES BEFORE DARK. MOSTLY CLR SKIES OVERNIGHT BUT THE DATA
SUGGESTS WIND WILL KEEPS THINGS SLIGHTLY STIRRED UP...THEREBY
KEEPING TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT. AS A RESULT...LOWS CLOSE TO
GUIDANCE WERE USED WITH MINS ABOUT 5-7 DEGREES BLW CLIMO. IF WINDS
DECOUPLE...AT LEAST 5 DEGREES WILL NEED TO BE CHOPPED OFF THE FCST
ACROSS THE OUTLYING AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
SYS CURRENTLY OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL RACE TOWARDS THE
AREA WITH THE SFC LOW REACHING THE NYC LONGITUDE APPROXIMATELY 00Z
WED. THE 00Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF ARE ALL IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SPEED...BUT THE MODELS DIFFER WRT THE EXACT N-S TRACK. THE
ECMWF WAS THE FURTHEST S...WITH THE NAM AND GFS CLUSTERED CLOSELY
WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLES ACROSS CNTRL NJ. THE SREF MEAN WAS SLIGHLY
FURTHER N. POPS FOR INCREASED TO JUST BLW LIKELY BY LATE AFTN.
THIS TRACK COMBINED WITH THE THERMAL PROFILES ALOFT WOULD SUPPORT
A COLD ENOUGH COLUMN ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA FOR SNOW. WITH THE
BL INITIALLY WARM...LGT RAIN COULD MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO SNOW AS
STEADIER/HEAVIER PCPN MOVES IN. SRN AREAS...PARTICULARLY FROM WRN
NJ ZONES THRU THE CITY AND ONTO LI...TEMPS ALOFT MAY WARM FOR A
CHANGE BACK TO RAIN...OR IT MAY EVEN REMAIN ALL RAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. LATEST 00Z
FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATING THAT ANY RAIN OR SNOW...WILL CHANGE TO
ALL SNOW SHORTLY AFTER 00Z ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AS
COLD AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. QPF TOTALS ARE GENERALLY ON THE LOW
END WITH LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. ANY PRECIPITATION WILL
TAPER OFF LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY THEN MOVES OFFSHORE
THURSDAY...WITH RETURN FLOW AND MOIST AIR QUICKLY SPREADING NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
40S.

NEXT LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE LOCAL AREA LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...WITH RAIN CHANCES CONTINUING STRAIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S AND LOWS IN
THE LOW TO MID 40S. TEMPERATURES FALL BACK TO NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH EASTERN CANADA WILL BRING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON...17Z TO 22Z.

VFR...EXCEPT WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW WITH LOCAL
MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES...11Z TO 18Z...WEST TO EAST.
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOSTLY SNOW. LOW CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIPITATION
WILL OCCUR AT ANY PARTICULAR TERMINAL AND WILL NOT LAST MOST OF THE
TIME IN THE TEMPO GROUP.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 10 KT...BECOMING WEST TO
NORTHWEST...280 TO 300 TRUE...WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.
OCCASIONAL GUSTS WITH THE SOUTHERLY WIND THIS MORNING WILL BECOME
MORE FREQUENT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. HIGHEST GUSTS 20
TO 25 KT...MOST GUSTS AROUND 20 KT. GUSTS END THIS EVENING...00Z TO
03Z.

          NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION...LIKELY WILL
BE ALL RAIN. OCCASIONAL GUSTS WITH THE SOUTHERLY WIND. HIGHER
CONFIDENCE WITH GUSTS WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT....AROUND
18Z. WIND 250 TO 270 TRUE WITH HIGHEST GUSTS AROUND 25 KT.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION...MAY BE ALL
RAIN...OR BRIEF RAIN SNOW MIX. NO ACCUMULATION. OCCASIONAL GUSTS
WITH THE SOUTHERLY WIND. HIGHER CONFIDENCE WITH GUSTS WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT....AROUND 18Z. WIND 250 TO 270 TRUE WITH
HIGHEST GUSTS AROUND 25 KT.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION
OCCURRING...HIGHER CONFIDENCE WILL BE ALL LIGHT SNOW...AND MAY
BRIEFLY LOWER VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS TO MARGINAL VFR...5SM...2500
FT. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION. OCCASIONAL GUSTS WITH THE SOUTHERLY
WIND. HIGHER CONFIDENCE WITH GUSTS WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT....AROUND 18Z. WIND 270 TO 290 TRUE WITH HIGHEST GUSTS AROUND
25 KT.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION
OCCURRING...HIGHER CONFIDENCE WILL BE ALL LIGHT SNOW...AND MAY
BRIEFLY LOWER VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS TO MARGINAL VFR...5SM...2500
FT. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION. OCCASIONAL GUSTS WITH THE SOUTHERLY
WIND. HIGHER CONFIDENCE WITH GUSTS WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT....AROUND 18Z. WIND 270 TO 290 TRUE WITH HIGHEST GUSTS AROUND
22 KT.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION
OCCURRING...HIGHER CONFIDENCE WILL BE ALL LIGHT SNOW AND MAY BRIEFLY
LOWER VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS TO MARGINAL VFR...4SM...2000 FT.
LITTLE ACCUMULATION. OCCASIONAL GUSTS WITH THE SOUTHERLY WIND.
HIGHER CONFIDENCE WITH GUSTS WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT....AROUND 18Z. WIND 270 TO 290 TRUE WITH HIGHEST GUSTS AROUND
22 KT.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION
OCCURRING...AND MAY BE ALL RAIN. OCCASIONAL AND MINIMAL GUSTS IN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW...TO AROUND 19 KT. HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF GUSTS WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT....AROUND 20Z. WIND 270 TO 290 TRUE WITH
HIGHEST GUSTS AROUND 25 KT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.LATE MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...VFR. LATE AFTERNOON TUESDAY
MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN DEVELOPING -RA/SN.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLE MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN -SN.
.WEDNESDAY...VFR.
.THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR...WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN -RA LATE IN
IN THE DAY AND AT NIGHT. POSSIBLE LLWS.
.FRIDAY...MVFR IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SW WIND INCREASE TODAY TO SCA LVLS...THEN WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW
THIS AFTN INTO THE EVE AS A CDFNT TRACKS THRU. WINDS DIMINISH THIS
EVE...BUT SEAS REMAIN ABV SCA LVLS ON THE OCEAN. SCA COND MAY
DEVELOP AGAIN ON ALL WATERS TUE AS LOW PRES TRACKS QUICKLY INTO
THE REGION. SEAS MAY BRIEFLY TOUGH 5 FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT SUB-SMALL CRAFT LEVEL CONDITIONS THROUGH
THURSDAY AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS OVER THE REGION. WIND
GUSTS AND WAVES INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE OCEAN WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TRACE AMTS TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT ARE EXPECTED
TODAY. A FEW TENTHS OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT IS POSSIBLE TUE AND TUE
NGT. THEREAFTER...NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS
FORECAST.

RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW BANK FULL...BUT
INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT WILL CONTINUE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT INTO
THIS WEEKEND. ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY
OCCUR...COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING
IS UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS
SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-
     335-338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/JMC
NEAR TERM...BC/JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...BC/JMC
HYDROLOGY...BC/JMC




000
FXUS61 KOKX 301047
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
647 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS LATE TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A QUICK MOVING LOW
ON TUE. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THEN...A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE AREA LATE
IN THE WEEK...INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FORECAST ON TRACK WITH JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO REFLECT
LATEST OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE...MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT PRODUCING A BATCH OF RADAR RETURNS ACROSS
UPSTATE NY INTO ERN PA THAT WILL TRAVERSE THE CWA DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. 00Z KOKX SOUNDING WAS DRY WITH ONLY 0.12
PW. LLVL MOISTURE CONFINED TO ERN LI AND CT WHERE FLOW OFF THE
OCEAN HAS PROVIDED SOME MOISTENING. PCPN COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO
BE SCT AND LGT. THE COLUMN APPEARS COLD ENOUGH BASED ON THE 00Z
MODELS TO ALLOW FOR SNOW SHWRS POSSIBLE MIXED WITH RAIN THRU
12Z...THEN TRANSITIONING TO MAINLY RAIN SHWRS THRU THE MRNG HRS AS
BOTH THE BL AND MID LVLS WARM. PCPN CHCS MAINLY TIL 16Z...THEN
THEY DROP QUICKLY.

THE CDFNT OVER OH AT 7Z REACHES ORANGE COUNTY PER THE 12Z NAM
RIGHT ABOUT 18Z. IT THEN SWEEPS ACROSS THE CWA AND CLEARS THE AREA
BY 00Z. ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE COULD PRODUCE A FEW HRS OF PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES BEFORE DARK. MOSTLY CLR SKIES OVERNIGHT BUT THE DATA
SUGGESTS WIND WILL KEEPS THINGS SLIGHTLY STIRRED UP...THEREBY
KEEPING TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT. AS A RESULT...LOWS CLOSE TO
GUIDANCE WERE USED WITH MINS ABOUT 5-7 DEGREES BLW CLIMO. IF WINDS
DECOUPLE...AT LEAST 5 DEGREES WILL NEED TO BE CHOPPED OFF THE FCST
ACROSS THE OUTLYING AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
SYS CURRENTLY OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL RACE TOWARDS THE
AREA WITH THE SFC LOW REACHING THE NYC LONGITUDE APPROXIMATELY 00Z
WED. THE 00Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF ARE ALL IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SPEED...BUT THE MODELS DIFFER WRT THE EXACT N-S TRACK. THE
ECMWF WAS THE FURTHEST S...WITH THE NAM AND GFS CLUSTERED CLOSELY
WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLES ACROSS CNTRL NJ. THE SREF MEAN WAS SLIGHLY
FURTHER N. POPS FOR INCREASED TO JUST BLW LIKELY BY LATE AFTN.
THIS TRACK COMBINED WITH THE THERMAL PROFILES ALOFT WOULD SUPPORT
A COLD ENOUGH COLUMN ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA FOR SNOW. WITH THE
BL INITIALLY WARM...LGT RAIN COULD MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO SNOW AS
STEADIER/HEAVIER PCPN MOVES IN. SRN AREAS...PARTICULARLY FROM WRN
NJ ZONES THRU THE CITY AND ONTO LI...TEMPS ALOFT MAY WARM FOR A
CHANGE BACK TO RAIN...OR IT MAY EVEN REMAIN ALL RAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. LATEST 00Z
FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATING THAT ANY RAIN OR SNOW...WILL CHANGE TO
ALL SNOW SHORTLY AFTER 00Z ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AS
COLD AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. QPF TOTALS ARE GENERALLY ON THE LOW
END WITH LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. ANY PRECIPITATION WILL
TAPER OFF LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY THEN MOVES OFFSHORE
THURSDAY...WITH RETURN FLOW AND MOIST AIR QUICKLY SPREADING NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
40S.

NEXT LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE LOCAL AREA LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...WITH RAIN CHANCES CONTINUING STRAIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S AND LOWS IN
THE LOW TO MID 40S. TEMPERATURES FALL BACK TO NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH EASTERN CANADA WILL BRING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON...17Z TO 22Z.

VFR...EXCEPT WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW WITH LOCAL
MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES...11Z TO 18Z...WEST TO EAST.
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOSTLY SNOW. LOW CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIPITATION
WILL OCCUR AT ANY PARTICULAR TERMINAL AND WILL NOT LAST MOST OF THE
TIME IN THE TEMPO GROUP.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 10 KT...BECOMING WEST TO
NORTHWEST...280 TO 300 TRUE...WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.
OCCASIONAL GUSTS WITH THE SOUTHERLY WIND THIS MORNING WILL BECOME
MORE FREQUENT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. HIGHEST GUSTS 20
TO 25 KT...MOST GUSTS AROUND 20 KT. GUSTS END THIS EVENING...00Z TO
03Z.

          NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION...LIKELY WILL
BE ALL RAIN. OCCASIONAL GUSTS WITH THE SOUTHERLY WIND. HIGHER
CONFIDENCE WITH GUSTS WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT....AROUND
18Z. WIND 250 TO 270 TRUE WITH HIGHEST GUSTS AROUND 25 KT.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION...MAY BE ALL
RAIN...OR BRIEF RAIN SNOW MIX. NO ACCUMULATION. OCCASIONAL GUSTS
WITH THE SOUTHERLY WIND. HIGHER CONFIDENCE WITH GUSTS WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT....AROUND 18Z. WIND 250 TO 270 TRUE WITH
HIGHEST GUSTS AROUND 25 KT.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION
OCCURRING...HIGHER CONFIDENCE WILL BE ALL LIGHT SNOW...AND MAY
BRIEFLY LOWER VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS TO MARGINAL VFR...5SM...2500
FT. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION. OCCASIONAL GUSTS WITH THE SOUTHERLY
WIND. HIGHER CONFIDENCE WITH GUSTS WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT....AROUND 18Z. WIND 270 TO 290 TRUE WITH HIGHEST GUSTS AROUND
25 KT.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION
OCCURRING...HIGHER CONFIDENCE WILL BE ALL LIGHT SNOW...AND MAY
BRIEFLY LOWER VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS TO MARGINAL VFR...5SM...2500
FT. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION. OCCASIONAL GUSTS WITH THE SOUTHERLY
WIND. HIGHER CONFIDENCE WITH GUSTS WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT....AROUND 18Z. WIND 270 TO 290 TRUE WITH HIGHEST GUSTS AROUND
22 KT.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION
OCCURRING...HIGHER CONFIDENCE WILL BE ALL LIGHT SNOW AND MAY BRIEFLY
LOWER VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS TO MARGINAL VFR...4SM...2000 FT.
LITTLE ACCUMULATION. OCCASIONAL GUSTS WITH THE SOUTHERLY WIND.
HIGHER CONFIDENCE WITH GUSTS WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT....AROUND 18Z. WIND 270 TO 290 TRUE WITH HIGHEST GUSTS AROUND
22 KT.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION
OCCURRING...AND MAY BE ALL RAIN. OCCASIONAL AND MINIMAL GUSTS IN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW...TO AROUND 19 KT. HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF GUSTS WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT....AROUND 20Z. WIND 270 TO 290 TRUE WITH
HIGHEST GUSTS AROUND 25 KT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.LATE MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...VFR. LATE AFTERNOON TUESDAY
MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN DEVELOPING -RA/SN.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLE MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN -SN.
.WEDNESDAY...VFR.
.THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR...WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN -RA LATE IN
IN THE DAY AND AT NIGHT. POSSIBLE LLWS.
.FRIDAY...MVFR IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SW WIND INCREASE TODAY TO SCA LVLS...THEN WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW
THIS AFTN INTO THE EVE AS A CDFNT TRACKS THRU. WINDS DIMINISH THIS
EVE...BUT SEAS REMAIN ABV SCA LVLS ON THE OCEAN. SCA COND MAY
DEVELOP AGAIN ON ALL WATERS TUE AS LOW PRES TRACKS QUICKLY INTO
THE REGION. SEAS MAY BRIEFLY TOUGH 5 FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT SUB-SMALL CRAFT LEVEL CONDITIONS THROUGH
THURSDAY AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS OVER THE REGION. WIND
GUSTS AND WAVES INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE OCEAN WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TRACE AMTS TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT ARE EXPECTED
TODAY. A FEW TENTHS OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT IS POSSIBLE TUE AND TUE
NGT. THEREAFTER...NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS
FORECAST.

RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW BANK FULL...BUT
INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT WILL CONTINUE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT INTO
THIS WEEKEND. ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY
OCCUR...COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING
IS UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS
SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-
     335-338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/JMC
NEAR TERM...BC/JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...BC/JMC
HYDROLOGY...BC/JMC




000
FXUS61 KOKX 301047
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
647 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS LATE TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A QUICK MOVING LOW
ON TUE. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THEN...A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE AREA LATE
IN THE WEEK...INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FORECAST ON TRACK WITH JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO REFLECT
LATEST OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE...MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT PRODUCING A BATCH OF RADAR RETURNS ACROSS
UPSTATE NY INTO ERN PA THAT WILL TRAVERSE THE CWA DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. 00Z KOKX SOUNDING WAS DRY WITH ONLY 0.12
PW. LLVL MOISTURE CONFINED TO ERN LI AND CT WHERE FLOW OFF THE
OCEAN HAS PROVIDED SOME MOISTENING. PCPN COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO
BE SCT AND LGT. THE COLUMN APPEARS COLD ENOUGH BASED ON THE 00Z
MODELS TO ALLOW FOR SNOW SHWRS POSSIBLE MIXED WITH RAIN THRU
12Z...THEN TRANSITIONING TO MAINLY RAIN SHWRS THRU THE MRNG HRS AS
BOTH THE BL AND MID LVLS WARM. PCPN CHCS MAINLY TIL 16Z...THEN
THEY DROP QUICKLY.

THE CDFNT OVER OH AT 7Z REACHES ORANGE COUNTY PER THE 12Z NAM
RIGHT ABOUT 18Z. IT THEN SWEEPS ACROSS THE CWA AND CLEARS THE AREA
BY 00Z. ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE COULD PRODUCE A FEW HRS OF PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES BEFORE DARK. MOSTLY CLR SKIES OVERNIGHT BUT THE DATA
SUGGESTS WIND WILL KEEPS THINGS SLIGHTLY STIRRED UP...THEREBY
KEEPING TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT. AS A RESULT...LOWS CLOSE TO
GUIDANCE WERE USED WITH MINS ABOUT 5-7 DEGREES BLW CLIMO. IF WINDS
DECOUPLE...AT LEAST 5 DEGREES WILL NEED TO BE CHOPPED OFF THE FCST
ACROSS THE OUTLYING AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
SYS CURRENTLY OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL RACE TOWARDS THE
AREA WITH THE SFC LOW REACHING THE NYC LONGITUDE APPROXIMATELY 00Z
WED. THE 00Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF ARE ALL IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SPEED...BUT THE MODELS DIFFER WRT THE EXACT N-S TRACK. THE
ECMWF WAS THE FURTHEST S...WITH THE NAM AND GFS CLUSTERED CLOSELY
WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLES ACROSS CNTRL NJ. THE SREF MEAN WAS SLIGHLY
FURTHER N. POPS FOR INCREASED TO JUST BLW LIKELY BY LATE AFTN.
THIS TRACK COMBINED WITH THE THERMAL PROFILES ALOFT WOULD SUPPORT
A COLD ENOUGH COLUMN ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA FOR SNOW. WITH THE
BL INITIALLY WARM...LGT RAIN COULD MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO SNOW AS
STEADIER/HEAVIER PCPN MOVES IN. SRN AREAS...PARTICULARLY FROM WRN
NJ ZONES THRU THE CITY AND ONTO LI...TEMPS ALOFT MAY WARM FOR A
CHANGE BACK TO RAIN...OR IT MAY EVEN REMAIN ALL RAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. LATEST 00Z
FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATING THAT ANY RAIN OR SNOW...WILL CHANGE TO
ALL SNOW SHORTLY AFTER 00Z ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AS
COLD AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. QPF TOTALS ARE GENERALLY ON THE LOW
END WITH LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. ANY PRECIPITATION WILL
TAPER OFF LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY THEN MOVES OFFSHORE
THURSDAY...WITH RETURN FLOW AND MOIST AIR QUICKLY SPREADING NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
40S.

NEXT LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE LOCAL AREA LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...WITH RAIN CHANCES CONTINUING STRAIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S AND LOWS IN
THE LOW TO MID 40S. TEMPERATURES FALL BACK TO NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH EASTERN CANADA WILL BRING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON...17Z TO 22Z.

VFR...EXCEPT WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW WITH LOCAL
MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES...11Z TO 18Z...WEST TO EAST.
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOSTLY SNOW. LOW CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIPITATION
WILL OCCUR AT ANY PARTICULAR TERMINAL AND WILL NOT LAST MOST OF THE
TIME IN THE TEMPO GROUP.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 10 KT...BECOMING WEST TO
NORTHWEST...280 TO 300 TRUE...WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.
OCCASIONAL GUSTS WITH THE SOUTHERLY WIND THIS MORNING WILL BECOME
MORE FREQUENT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. HIGHEST GUSTS 20
TO 25 KT...MOST GUSTS AROUND 20 KT. GUSTS END THIS EVENING...00Z TO
03Z.

          NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION...LIKELY WILL
BE ALL RAIN. OCCASIONAL GUSTS WITH THE SOUTHERLY WIND. HIGHER
CONFIDENCE WITH GUSTS WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT....AROUND
18Z. WIND 250 TO 270 TRUE WITH HIGHEST GUSTS AROUND 25 KT.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION...MAY BE ALL
RAIN...OR BRIEF RAIN SNOW MIX. NO ACCUMULATION. OCCASIONAL GUSTS
WITH THE SOUTHERLY WIND. HIGHER CONFIDENCE WITH GUSTS WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT....AROUND 18Z. WIND 250 TO 270 TRUE WITH
HIGHEST GUSTS AROUND 25 KT.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION
OCCURRING...HIGHER CONFIDENCE WILL BE ALL LIGHT SNOW...AND MAY
BRIEFLY LOWER VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS TO MARGINAL VFR...5SM...2500
FT. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION. OCCASIONAL GUSTS WITH THE SOUTHERLY
WIND. HIGHER CONFIDENCE WITH GUSTS WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT....AROUND 18Z. WIND 270 TO 290 TRUE WITH HIGHEST GUSTS AROUND
25 KT.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION
OCCURRING...HIGHER CONFIDENCE WILL BE ALL LIGHT SNOW...AND MAY
BRIEFLY LOWER VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS TO MARGINAL VFR...5SM...2500
FT. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION. OCCASIONAL GUSTS WITH THE SOUTHERLY
WIND. HIGHER CONFIDENCE WITH GUSTS WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT....AROUND 18Z. WIND 270 TO 290 TRUE WITH HIGHEST GUSTS AROUND
22 KT.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION
OCCURRING...HIGHER CONFIDENCE WILL BE ALL LIGHT SNOW AND MAY BRIEFLY
LOWER VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS TO MARGINAL VFR...4SM...2000 FT.
LITTLE ACCUMULATION. OCCASIONAL GUSTS WITH THE SOUTHERLY WIND.
HIGHER CONFIDENCE WITH GUSTS WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT....AROUND 18Z. WIND 270 TO 290 TRUE WITH HIGHEST GUSTS AROUND
22 KT.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION
OCCURRING...AND MAY BE ALL RAIN. OCCASIONAL AND MINIMAL GUSTS IN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW...TO AROUND 19 KT. HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF GUSTS WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT....AROUND 20Z. WIND 270 TO 290 TRUE WITH
HIGHEST GUSTS AROUND 25 KT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.LATE MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...VFR. LATE AFTERNOON TUESDAY
MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN DEVELOPING -RA/SN.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLE MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN -SN.
.WEDNESDAY...VFR.
.THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR...WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN -RA LATE IN
IN THE DAY AND AT NIGHT. POSSIBLE LLWS.
.FRIDAY...MVFR IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SW WIND INCREASE TODAY TO SCA LVLS...THEN WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW
THIS AFTN INTO THE EVE AS A CDFNT TRACKS THRU. WINDS DIMINISH THIS
EVE...BUT SEAS REMAIN ABV SCA LVLS ON THE OCEAN. SCA COND MAY
DEVELOP AGAIN ON ALL WATERS TUE AS LOW PRES TRACKS QUICKLY INTO
THE REGION. SEAS MAY BRIEFLY TOUGH 5 FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT SUB-SMALL CRAFT LEVEL CONDITIONS THROUGH
THURSDAY AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS OVER THE REGION. WIND
GUSTS AND WAVES INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE OCEAN WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TRACE AMTS TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT ARE EXPECTED
TODAY. A FEW TENTHS OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT IS POSSIBLE TUE AND TUE
NGT. THEREAFTER...NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS
FORECAST.

RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW BANK FULL...BUT
INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT WILL CONTINUE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT INTO
THIS WEEKEND. ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY
OCCUR...COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING
IS UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS
SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-
     335-338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/JMC
NEAR TERM...BC/JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...BC/JMC
HYDROLOGY...BC/JMC




000
FXUS61 KALY 301044
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
645 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW MAINLY
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...MAINLY EARLY TODAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL WHIP ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON OFFERING MORE
SCATTERED SHOWERS OF RAIN...GRAUPEL OR MOUNTAIN SNOW. THERE WILL
ALSO BE SOME GUSTY WINDS AS WELL. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN
TONIGHT...BUT A DISTURBANCE WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A
LITTLE MORE PRECIPITATION TO MAINLY AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 ON
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE REGAINS CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

AS OF 630 AM EST...SNOW SHOWERS WERE REPORTED THROUGHOUT OUR COUNTY
WARNING AREA (CWA) WHICH IN SOME CASES WAS COATING THE GROUND. THIS
FIRST LINE OF SNOW SHOWERS WAS ALREADY IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING WEST
OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. THERE WERE MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS UPSTREAM
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS DUE TO BROAD ASCENT AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY.


THE LATEST HRRR INDICATED NOT MUCH ACTIVITY BEHIND THIS BATCH.
HOWEVER...UPSTREAM A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION BY
AFTERNOON...AND THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE
(INCREASING COLD ALOFT). THEREFORE...WE FEEL PRETTY CONFIDENT
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS OF RAIN...GRAUPEL WILL DEVELOP. THIS IS
HINTED BY THE HRRR. AS IT TURNS COLDER ALOFT...ANY OF THESE SHOWERS
COULD TURN BACK TO SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS ELEVATIONS HIGHER THAN 2500
FEET LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO...THERE COULD ACTUALLY BE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS BRIEFLY OFF OF ONTARIO...DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY
BY LATE IN THE DAY.

SO FOR THIS UPDATE...JUST FINAGLED WITH HOURLY POPS...BUT KEEP
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO THE AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING TO NO
POPS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY BY LATE IN THE DAY.


ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THIS MORNING WILL LOCALIZED AND CONFINED TO
THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE AN INCH OR TWO COULD ACCUMULATE. NOTHING
MORE THAN A DUSTING TO AN INCH (IF THAT) IS EXPECTED IN ANY VALLEY
AREAS.

THIS AFTERNOON...THERE SHOULD BE NO REAL ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS...EVEN OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TRICKY TO FORECAST. THEY WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION COVERAGE. LESS
PRECIPITATION...MORE BREAKS OF SUNSHINE AND A BRIEF GUSTY SW WIND
COULD PROPEL TEMPERATURES PAST 50 IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT FOR THE
FIRST TIME IN 92 DAYS. HOWEVER...WE LEANED MORE WITH THE CLOUDS AND
ENOUGH SHOWER ACTIVITY TO HOLD HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE UPPER 40S IN
AND AROUND  THE CAPITAL REGION...BUT REACHING 50 OR A LITTLE HIGHER
SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...40-45 HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE WIND WILL BE BRISK OUT OF THE SOUTH THIS MORNING 10-20 MPH WITH
SOME HIGHER GUSTS...ESPECIALLY AT THE ONSET OF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
AS EVAPORATIVE COOLING COULD MIX A PRETTY STRONG WSW LOW LEVEL JET
TO THE SURFACE. AS THE COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH...THE WIND WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST AT SIMILAR SPEEDS. THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR
GUSTS 35-45 MPH...JUST BELOW WIND ADVISORY THRESHOLDS...BUT WE WILL
MONITOR.   THE QPF WILL LIGHT THIS SYSTEM...WELL UNDER A QUARTER OF
AN INCH...AND IN SOME PLACES FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD...PERHAPS NOT
EVEN MEASURING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN RESULTING IN A CLEARING
SKY AND A GRADUAL DIMINISHING WIND (AFTER SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE
EVENING)...BUT PROBABLY NOT GO COMPLETELY CALM. NIGHT TIME LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S...EXCEPT UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

A TRAILING PIECE OF NORTHERN STREAM UPPER ENERGY TRACKS SOUTHEAST
OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND TRACKS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TUESDAY...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A PRECIPITATION
SHIELD...POSSIBLY EXTENDING JUST SOUTH OF I-90. CLOUDS WILL EXTEND
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA. WHILE ON PAPER IT LOOKS COLD
ENOUGH FOR THIS PRECIPITATION TO BE SNOW...THAT FACT THAT IT IS
NEARLY APRIL...THE AIR MASS WILL NOT BE ALL THAT COLD...AND MUCH OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL DURING THE DAY ALLOWING SOLAR INFLUENCE
THROUGH THE CLOUDS...PTYPE WILL BE A CHALLENGE. IF THE PRECIPITATION
IS LIGHT ENOUGH (WHICH WE BELIEVE WILL BE THE CASE) WE WOULD
PROBABLY BE LOOKING AT SNOW AT ELEVATIONS HIGHER THAN 1500
FEET...AND RAIN OR RAIN SNOW MIX IN THE VALLEY WITH VERY LITTLE IF
ANY ACCUMULATION. EVEN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACCUMULATIONS (IF
ANY) LOOK LIGHT BUT AGAIN WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR LATER TRENDS TO
SEE IF THERE SIGNALS RAMPING UP THE QPF (WHICH WOULD FAVOR MORE SNOW
OVER RAIN AND OF COURSE MORE ACCUMULATION). WE KEPT POPS IN THE
CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW...EVEN THOUGH SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES
HIGHER CHANCES THAN THAT TO OUR SOUTH.

PROJECT HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS (POSSIBLY
HIGHEST NORTH OF ALBANY WHERE THE CLOUDS WILL BE THE THINNEST). HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 30S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN...IF
PRECIPITATION TURNS OUT TO BE HEAVIER...THESE HIGHS WOULD HAVE TO BE
LOWERED SEVERAL DEGREES.

THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ON TUESDAY EVENING...LEAVING HIGH PRESSURE
TO BUILD BACK IN. THE SKY SHOULD CLEAR AND WITH LIGHT WIND
TEMPERATURES WILL TANK (ESPECIALLY IN ANY AREAS THAT PICK UP EVEN
FRESH COATING OF SNOW). LOWS WILL DIP BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S
ALBANY SOUTHWARD...15-20 FURTHER NORTH AND WEST.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY DECENT DAY (AT LEAST BY THIS SPRING
STANDARDS). BRIGHT SUNSHINE WILL BOLSTER TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 40S IN THE VALLEYS...MID TO UPPER 30S HIGHER TERRAIN.
THESE VALUES ARE STILL A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY REGARDING THE HANDLING OF FAST MOVING
PACIFIC SHORTWAVE ENERGY DURING THE FRI-SAT TIME PERIOD.

THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE DEAMPLIFYING AT THE START OF THE
EXTENDED ACROSS THE U.S...AS THE PERSISTENT POLAR VORTEX RELAXES AND
REORIENTS A BIT FURTHER N AND W ACROSS CANADA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
FAST MOVING PACIFIC SYSTEMS TO TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
U.S. RIDGING AHEAD OF ONE OF THESE DISTURBANCES SHOULD BRING A
PERIOD OF MILDER TEMPERATURES FOR THU-FRI...BEFORE TEMPS TREND BACK
TO BELOW NORMAL BY NEXT WEEKEND AS MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ONCE
AGAIN FALL ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

THU-SAT NT...A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL TRACK EAST FROM
THE WESTERN U.S. DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH A NORTHERN PIECE
TRACKING INTO CENTRAL CANADA...WHILE A SOUTHERN ONE TRACKS INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. FRONTAL SYSTEMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN
ONE SHOULD IMPACT OUR REGION THU...WITH A WARM FRONT
INITIALLY...THEN A COLD FRONT SOMETIME THU NT OR FRI. THIS SHOULD
BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION THU AFTN-EARLY FRI. THEN...AS
THE SOUTHERN PIECE OF ENERGY TRACKS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
EVENTUALLY THE EASTERN U.S...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP
ALONG THE COLD FRONT...AND ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO LINGER/REDEVELOP
LATER FRI AND POSSIBLY INTO SAT. DEPENDING ON HOW THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY AND TIMING OF ASSOCIATED SFC BOUNDARIES TRACK FRI-
SAT...THERE COULD BE ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR P-TYPE ISSUES WITH ANY
LINGERING PRECIP FRIDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...SOME GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT ANY SOUTHERN PIECES OF ENERGY AND WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACK FURTHER SOUTH WITH LESS IMPACTS ON OUR REGION.
SO...AT THIS TIME...GENERALLY HAVE INDICATED ONLY CHC POPS FOR
THIS TIME PERIOD...MAINLY FOR RAIN SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH SOME SNOW
COULD OCCUR FRI NT INTO SAT MORNING DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING
AND TRACK OF SYSTEMS.

SUN...A RETURN TO BELOW...TO POTENTIALLY WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IS
QUITE POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF ANY PREVIOUS SYSTEM. IT SHOULD BE
GENERALLY DRY...ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS OF SNOW OR
RAIN DEPENDING ON INSTABILITY AND OVERALL PROGRESSION OF UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY.

TEMPERATURE WISE...HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND
50S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. HIGHS FRIDAY
GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH UPPER 40S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TEENS TO THE 20S. HIGHS SUNDAY IN
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 630 AM...THE INITIAL BAND OF SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT WAS ALREADY MOVING THROUGH THE TAF
SITES AND WILL LIKELY BE EAST OF THE REGION BY 12Z (THE START OF
THE TAF PERIOD). EVEN AFTER THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH...THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS (MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS LATER IN THE DAY...WILL
CONTINUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING
THE MID AFTERNOON PERIOD. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THERE WILL STILL
BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALSO AFFECTS
THE REGION.

ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A FEW WEATHER FEATURES AFFECTING THE REGION
DURING THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z TUESDAY...MOISTURE IS LIMITED
AND FORCING IS RELATIVELY WEAK...SO FOR THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF
TAF SITES HAVE GENERALLY FORECAST VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE
TAF PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION IS AT KGFL...WHERE A TEMPO GROUP FOR
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS DUE TO SNOW SHOWERS HAS BEEN FORECAST BETWEEN 12Z
AND 15Z. OTHERWISE...THE THREAT OF SHOWERS IS LOW AND TIMING
DIFFICULT...SO HAVE ONLY INDICATED VCSH DURING THE DAY AT THE
OTHER TAF SITES AND DURING OTHER TIMES OF THE TAFS.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AT 8 TO 12
KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS. AFTER THE WARM FRONT THE WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS WITH
GUSTS OF 18 TO 25 KTS DURING MID/LATE MONDAY MORNING. BY MID
AFTERNOON THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WESTERLY AFTER THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH WITH SPEEDS OF 12 TO 18 KTS AND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30
KTS. AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...THE SPEEDS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH...DROPPING TO 5 TO 10 KTS BY LATE TONIGHT...WITH SOME
GUSTS TO 15 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH TODAY...

A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION EARLY MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS
FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST. A COLD FRONT COULD BRING A FEW MORE
SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK
IN TONIGHT. ANOTHER CLIPPER TRACKING MAINLY SOUTH OF THE REGION
COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 55 PERCENT MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 70 AND 100 PERCENT TONIGHT
AND MONDAY NIGHT.

A SOUTH WIND AVERAGE 10 TO 20 MPH...THEN BECOME WEST TO
NORTHWEST BY WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH BY AFTERNOON. THE WIND WILL
DIMINISHING DOWN 5-15 MPH LATE MONDAY NIGHT...LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE SLOW ANY RISES.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...AND SOME AREAS MAY NOT SEE PRECIPITATION. SOME OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.

ANOTHER DISTURBANCE COULD BRING A LITTLE MORE RAIN OR SNOW TO MAINLY AREAS SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 90 TUESDAY. QPF AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT...UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH
WHICH SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR HSA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE SNOWPACK IN PLACE...
AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...KL/GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV



000
FXUS61 KALY 301044
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
645 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW MAINLY
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...MAINLY EARLY TODAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL WHIP ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON OFFERING MORE
SCATTERED SHOWERS OF RAIN...GRAUPEL OR MOUNTAIN SNOW. THERE WILL
ALSO BE SOME GUSTY WINDS AS WELL. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN
TONIGHT...BUT A DISTURBANCE WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A
LITTLE MORE PRECIPITATION TO MAINLY AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 ON
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE REGAINS CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

AS OF 630 AM EST...SNOW SHOWERS WERE REPORTED THROUGHOUT OUR COUNTY
WARNING AREA (CWA) WHICH IN SOME CASES WAS COATING THE GROUND. THIS
FIRST LINE OF SNOW SHOWERS WAS ALREADY IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING WEST
OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. THERE WERE MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS UPSTREAM
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS DUE TO BROAD ASCENT AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY.


THE LATEST HRRR INDICATED NOT MUCH ACTIVITY BEHIND THIS BATCH.
HOWEVER...UPSTREAM A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION BY
AFTERNOON...AND THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE
(INCREASING COLD ALOFT). THEREFORE...WE FEEL PRETTY CONFIDENT
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS OF RAIN...GRAUPEL WILL DEVELOP. THIS IS
HINTED BY THE HRRR. AS IT TURNS COLDER ALOFT...ANY OF THESE SHOWERS
COULD TURN BACK TO SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS ELEVATIONS HIGHER THAN 2500
FEET LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO...THERE COULD ACTUALLY BE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS BRIEFLY OFF OF ONTARIO...DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY
BY LATE IN THE DAY.

SO FOR THIS UPDATE...JUST FINAGLED WITH HOURLY POPS...BUT KEEP
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO THE AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING TO NO
POPS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY BY LATE IN THE DAY.


ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THIS MORNING WILL LOCALIZED AND CONFINED TO
THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE AN INCH OR TWO COULD ACCUMULATE. NOTHING
MORE THAN A DUSTING TO AN INCH (IF THAT) IS EXPECTED IN ANY VALLEY
AREAS.

THIS AFTERNOON...THERE SHOULD BE NO REAL ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS...EVEN OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TRICKY TO FORECAST. THEY WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION COVERAGE. LESS
PRECIPITATION...MORE BREAKS OF SUNSHINE AND A BRIEF GUSTY SW WIND
COULD PROPEL TEMPERATURES PAST 50 IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT FOR THE
FIRST TIME IN 92 DAYS. HOWEVER...WE LEANED MORE WITH THE CLOUDS AND
ENOUGH SHOWER ACTIVITY TO HOLD HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE UPPER 40S IN
AND AROUND  THE CAPITAL REGION...BUT REACHING 50 OR A LITTLE HIGHER
SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...40-45 HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE WIND WILL BE BRISK OUT OF THE SOUTH THIS MORNING 10-20 MPH WITH
SOME HIGHER GUSTS...ESPECIALLY AT THE ONSET OF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
AS EVAPORATIVE COOLING COULD MIX A PRETTY STRONG WSW LOW LEVEL JET
TO THE SURFACE. AS THE COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH...THE WIND WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST AT SIMILAR SPEEDS. THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR
GUSTS 35-45 MPH...JUST BELOW WIND ADVISORY THRESHOLDS...BUT WE WILL
MONITOR.   THE QPF WILL LIGHT THIS SYSTEM...WELL UNDER A QUARTER OF
AN INCH...AND IN SOME PLACES FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD...PERHAPS NOT
EVEN MEASURING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN RESULTING IN A CLEARING
SKY AND A GRADUAL DIMINISHING WIND (AFTER SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE
EVENING)...BUT PROBABLY NOT GO COMPLETELY CALM. NIGHT TIME LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S...EXCEPT UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

A TRAILING PIECE OF NORTHERN STREAM UPPER ENERGY TRACKS SOUTHEAST
OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND TRACKS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TUESDAY...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A PRECIPITATION
SHIELD...POSSIBLY EXTENDING JUST SOUTH OF I-90. CLOUDS WILL EXTEND
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA. WHILE ON PAPER IT LOOKS COLD
ENOUGH FOR THIS PRECIPITATION TO BE SNOW...THAT FACT THAT IT IS
NEARLY APRIL...THE AIR MASS WILL NOT BE ALL THAT COLD...AND MUCH OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL DURING THE DAY ALLOWING SOLAR INFLUENCE
THROUGH THE CLOUDS...PTYPE WILL BE A CHALLENGE. IF THE PRECIPITATION
IS LIGHT ENOUGH (WHICH WE BELIEVE WILL BE THE CASE) WE WOULD
PROBABLY BE LOOKING AT SNOW AT ELEVATIONS HIGHER THAN 1500
FEET...AND RAIN OR RAIN SNOW MIX IN THE VALLEY WITH VERY LITTLE IF
ANY ACCUMULATION. EVEN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACCUMULATIONS (IF
ANY) LOOK LIGHT BUT AGAIN WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR LATER TRENDS TO
SEE IF THERE SIGNALS RAMPING UP THE QPF (WHICH WOULD FAVOR MORE SNOW
OVER RAIN AND OF COURSE MORE ACCUMULATION). WE KEPT POPS IN THE
CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW...EVEN THOUGH SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES
HIGHER CHANCES THAN THAT TO OUR SOUTH.

PROJECT HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS (POSSIBLY
HIGHEST NORTH OF ALBANY WHERE THE CLOUDS WILL BE THE THINNEST). HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 30S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN...IF
PRECIPITATION TURNS OUT TO BE HEAVIER...THESE HIGHS WOULD HAVE TO BE
LOWERED SEVERAL DEGREES.

THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ON TUESDAY EVENING...LEAVING HIGH PRESSURE
TO BUILD BACK IN. THE SKY SHOULD CLEAR AND WITH LIGHT WIND
TEMPERATURES WILL TANK (ESPECIALLY IN ANY AREAS THAT PICK UP EVEN
FRESH COATING OF SNOW). LOWS WILL DIP BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S
ALBANY SOUTHWARD...15-20 FURTHER NORTH AND WEST.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY DECENT DAY (AT LEAST BY THIS SPRING
STANDARDS). BRIGHT SUNSHINE WILL BOLSTER TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 40S IN THE VALLEYS...MID TO UPPER 30S HIGHER TERRAIN.
THESE VALUES ARE STILL A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY REGARDING THE HANDLING OF FAST MOVING
PACIFIC SHORTWAVE ENERGY DURING THE FRI-SAT TIME PERIOD.

THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE DEAMPLIFYING AT THE START OF THE
EXTENDED ACROSS THE U.S...AS THE PERSISTENT POLAR VORTEX RELAXES AND
REORIENTS A BIT FURTHER N AND W ACROSS CANADA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
FAST MOVING PACIFIC SYSTEMS TO TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
U.S. RIDGING AHEAD OF ONE OF THESE DISTURBANCES SHOULD BRING A
PERIOD OF MILDER TEMPERATURES FOR THU-FRI...BEFORE TEMPS TREND BACK
TO BELOW NORMAL BY NEXT WEEKEND AS MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ONCE
AGAIN FALL ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

THU-SAT NT...A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL TRACK EAST FROM
THE WESTERN U.S. DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH A NORTHERN PIECE
TRACKING INTO CENTRAL CANADA...WHILE A SOUTHERN ONE TRACKS INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. FRONTAL SYSTEMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN
ONE SHOULD IMPACT OUR REGION THU...WITH A WARM FRONT
INITIALLY...THEN A COLD FRONT SOMETIME THU NT OR FRI. THIS SHOULD
BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION THU AFTN-EARLY FRI. THEN...AS
THE SOUTHERN PIECE OF ENERGY TRACKS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
EVENTUALLY THE EASTERN U.S...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP
ALONG THE COLD FRONT...AND ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO LINGER/REDEVELOP
LATER FRI AND POSSIBLY INTO SAT. DEPENDING ON HOW THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY AND TIMING OF ASSOCIATED SFC BOUNDARIES TRACK FRI-
SAT...THERE COULD BE ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR P-TYPE ISSUES WITH ANY
LINGERING PRECIP FRIDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...SOME GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT ANY SOUTHERN PIECES OF ENERGY AND WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACK FURTHER SOUTH WITH LESS IMPACTS ON OUR REGION.
SO...AT THIS TIME...GENERALLY HAVE INDICATED ONLY CHC POPS FOR
THIS TIME PERIOD...MAINLY FOR RAIN SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH SOME SNOW
COULD OCCUR FRI NT INTO SAT MORNING DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING
AND TRACK OF SYSTEMS.

SUN...A RETURN TO BELOW...TO POTENTIALLY WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IS
QUITE POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF ANY PREVIOUS SYSTEM. IT SHOULD BE
GENERALLY DRY...ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS OF SNOW OR
RAIN DEPENDING ON INSTABILITY AND OVERALL PROGRESSION OF UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY.

TEMPERATURE WISE...HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND
50S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. HIGHS FRIDAY
GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH UPPER 40S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TEENS TO THE 20S. HIGHS SUNDAY IN
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 630 AM...THE INITIAL BAND OF SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT WAS ALREADY MOVING THROUGH THE TAF
SITES AND WILL LIKELY BE EAST OF THE REGION BY 12Z (THE START OF
THE TAF PERIOD). EVEN AFTER THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH...THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS (MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS LATER IN THE DAY...WILL
CONTINUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING
THE MID AFTERNOON PERIOD. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THERE WILL STILL
BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALSO AFFECTS
THE REGION.

ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A FEW WEATHER FEATURES AFFECTING THE REGION
DURING THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z TUESDAY...MOISTURE IS LIMITED
AND FORCING IS RELATIVELY WEAK...SO FOR THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF
TAF SITES HAVE GENERALLY FORECAST VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE
TAF PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION IS AT KGFL...WHERE A TEMPO GROUP FOR
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS DUE TO SNOW SHOWERS HAS BEEN FORECAST BETWEEN 12Z
AND 15Z. OTHERWISE...THE THREAT OF SHOWERS IS LOW AND TIMING
DIFFICULT...SO HAVE ONLY INDICATED VCSH DURING THE DAY AT THE
OTHER TAF SITES AND DURING OTHER TIMES OF THE TAFS.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AT 8 TO 12
KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS. AFTER THE WARM FRONT THE WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS WITH
GUSTS OF 18 TO 25 KTS DURING MID/LATE MONDAY MORNING. BY MID
AFTERNOON THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WESTERLY AFTER THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH WITH SPEEDS OF 12 TO 18 KTS AND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30
KTS. AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...THE SPEEDS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH...DROPPING TO 5 TO 10 KTS BY LATE TONIGHT...WITH SOME
GUSTS TO 15 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH TODAY...

A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION EARLY MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS
FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST. A COLD FRONT COULD BRING A FEW MORE
SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK
IN TONIGHT. ANOTHER CLIPPER TRACKING MAINLY SOUTH OF THE REGION
COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 55 PERCENT MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 70 AND 100 PERCENT TONIGHT
AND MONDAY NIGHT.

A SOUTH WIND AVERAGE 10 TO 20 MPH...THEN BECOME WEST TO
NORTHWEST BY WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH BY AFTERNOON. THE WIND WILL
DIMINISHING DOWN 5-15 MPH LATE MONDAY NIGHT...LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE SLOW ANY RISES.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...AND SOME AREAS MAY NOT SEE PRECIPITATION. SOME OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.

ANOTHER DISTURBANCE COULD BRING A LITTLE MORE RAIN OR SNOW TO MAINLY AREAS SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 90 TUESDAY. QPF AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT...UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH
WHICH SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR HSA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE SNOWPACK IN PLACE...
AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...KL/GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV




000
FXUS61 KALY 301044
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
645 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW MAINLY
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...MAINLY EARLY TODAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL WHIP ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON OFFERING MORE
SCATTERED SHOWERS OF RAIN...GRAUPEL OR MOUNTAIN SNOW. THERE WILL
ALSO BE SOME GUSTY WINDS AS WELL. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN
TONIGHT...BUT A DISTURBANCE WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A
LITTLE MORE PRECIPITATION TO MAINLY AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 ON
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE REGAINS CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

AS OF 630 AM EST...SNOW SHOWERS WERE REPORTED THROUGHOUT OUR COUNTY
WARNING AREA (CWA) WHICH IN SOME CASES WAS COATING THE GROUND. THIS
FIRST LINE OF SNOW SHOWERS WAS ALREADY IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING WEST
OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. THERE WERE MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS UPSTREAM
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS DUE TO BROAD ASCENT AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY.


THE LATEST HRRR INDICATED NOT MUCH ACTIVITY BEHIND THIS BATCH.
HOWEVER...UPSTREAM A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION BY
AFTERNOON...AND THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE
(INCREASING COLD ALOFT). THEREFORE...WE FEEL PRETTY CONFIDENT
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS OF RAIN...GRAUPEL WILL DEVELOP. THIS IS
HINTED BY THE HRRR. AS IT TURNS COLDER ALOFT...ANY OF THESE SHOWERS
COULD TURN BACK TO SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS ELEVATIONS HIGHER THAN 2500
FEET LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO...THERE COULD ACTUALLY BE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS BRIEFLY OFF OF ONTARIO...DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY
BY LATE IN THE DAY.

SO FOR THIS UPDATE...JUST FINAGLED WITH HOURLY POPS...BUT KEEP
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO THE AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING TO NO
POPS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY BY LATE IN THE DAY.


ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THIS MORNING WILL LOCALIZED AND CONFINED TO
THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE AN INCH OR TWO COULD ACCUMULATE. NOTHING
MORE THAN A DUSTING TO AN INCH (IF THAT) IS EXPECTED IN ANY VALLEY
AREAS.

THIS AFTERNOON...THERE SHOULD BE NO REAL ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS...EVEN OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TRICKY TO FORECAST. THEY WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION COVERAGE. LESS
PRECIPITATION...MORE BREAKS OF SUNSHINE AND A BRIEF GUSTY SW WIND
COULD PROPEL TEMPERATURES PAST 50 IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT FOR THE
FIRST TIME IN 92 DAYS. HOWEVER...WE LEANED MORE WITH THE CLOUDS AND
ENOUGH SHOWER ACTIVITY TO HOLD HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE UPPER 40S IN
AND AROUND  THE CAPITAL REGION...BUT REACHING 50 OR A LITTLE HIGHER
SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...40-45 HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE WIND WILL BE BRISK OUT OF THE SOUTH THIS MORNING 10-20 MPH WITH
SOME HIGHER GUSTS...ESPECIALLY AT THE ONSET OF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
AS EVAPORATIVE COOLING COULD MIX A PRETTY STRONG WSW LOW LEVEL JET
TO THE SURFACE. AS THE COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH...THE WIND WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST AT SIMILAR SPEEDS. THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR
GUSTS 35-45 MPH...JUST BELOW WIND ADVISORY THRESHOLDS...BUT WE WILL
MONITOR.   THE QPF WILL LIGHT THIS SYSTEM...WELL UNDER A QUARTER OF
AN INCH...AND IN SOME PLACES FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD...PERHAPS NOT
EVEN MEASURING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN RESULTING IN A CLEARING
SKY AND A GRADUAL DIMINISHING WIND (AFTER SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE
EVENING)...BUT PROBABLY NOT GO COMPLETELY CALM. NIGHT TIME LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S...EXCEPT UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

A TRAILING PIECE OF NORTHERN STREAM UPPER ENERGY TRACKS SOUTHEAST
OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND TRACKS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TUESDAY...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A PRECIPITATION
SHIELD...POSSIBLY EXTENDING JUST SOUTH OF I-90. CLOUDS WILL EXTEND
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA. WHILE ON PAPER IT LOOKS COLD
ENOUGH FOR THIS PRECIPITATION TO BE SNOW...THAT FACT THAT IT IS
NEARLY APRIL...THE AIR MASS WILL NOT BE ALL THAT COLD...AND MUCH OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL DURING THE DAY ALLOWING SOLAR INFLUENCE
THROUGH THE CLOUDS...PTYPE WILL BE A CHALLENGE. IF THE PRECIPITATION
IS LIGHT ENOUGH (WHICH WE BELIEVE WILL BE THE CASE) WE WOULD
PROBABLY BE LOOKING AT SNOW AT ELEVATIONS HIGHER THAN 1500
FEET...AND RAIN OR RAIN SNOW MIX IN THE VALLEY WITH VERY LITTLE IF
ANY ACCUMULATION. EVEN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACCUMULATIONS (IF
ANY) LOOK LIGHT BUT AGAIN WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR LATER TRENDS TO
SEE IF THERE SIGNALS RAMPING UP THE QPF (WHICH WOULD FAVOR MORE SNOW
OVER RAIN AND OF COURSE MORE ACCUMULATION). WE KEPT POPS IN THE
CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW...EVEN THOUGH SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES
HIGHER CHANCES THAN THAT TO OUR SOUTH.

PROJECT HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS (POSSIBLY
HIGHEST NORTH OF ALBANY WHERE THE CLOUDS WILL BE THE THINNEST). HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 30S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN...IF
PRECIPITATION TURNS OUT TO BE HEAVIER...THESE HIGHS WOULD HAVE TO BE
LOWERED SEVERAL DEGREES.

THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ON TUESDAY EVENING...LEAVING HIGH PRESSURE
TO BUILD BACK IN. THE SKY SHOULD CLEAR AND WITH LIGHT WIND
TEMPERATURES WILL TANK (ESPECIALLY IN ANY AREAS THAT PICK UP EVEN
FRESH COATING OF SNOW). LOWS WILL DIP BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S
ALBANY SOUTHWARD...15-20 FURTHER NORTH AND WEST.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY DECENT DAY (AT LEAST BY THIS SPRING
STANDARDS). BRIGHT SUNSHINE WILL BOLSTER TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 40S IN THE VALLEYS...MID TO UPPER 30S HIGHER TERRAIN.
THESE VALUES ARE STILL A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY REGARDING THE HANDLING OF FAST MOVING
PACIFIC SHORTWAVE ENERGY DURING THE FRI-SAT TIME PERIOD.

THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE DEAMPLIFYING AT THE START OF THE
EXTENDED ACROSS THE U.S...AS THE PERSISTENT POLAR VORTEX RELAXES AND
REORIENTS A BIT FURTHER N AND W ACROSS CANADA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
FAST MOVING PACIFIC SYSTEMS TO TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
U.S. RIDGING AHEAD OF ONE OF THESE DISTURBANCES SHOULD BRING A
PERIOD OF MILDER TEMPERATURES FOR THU-FRI...BEFORE TEMPS TREND BACK
TO BELOW NORMAL BY NEXT WEEKEND AS MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ONCE
AGAIN FALL ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

THU-SAT NT...A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL TRACK EAST FROM
THE WESTERN U.S. DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH A NORTHERN PIECE
TRACKING INTO CENTRAL CANADA...WHILE A SOUTHERN ONE TRACKS INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. FRONTAL SYSTEMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN
ONE SHOULD IMPACT OUR REGION THU...WITH A WARM FRONT
INITIALLY...THEN A COLD FRONT SOMETIME THU NT OR FRI. THIS SHOULD
BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION THU AFTN-EARLY FRI. THEN...AS
THE SOUTHERN PIECE OF ENERGY TRACKS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
EVENTUALLY THE EASTERN U.S...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP
ALONG THE COLD FRONT...AND ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO LINGER/REDEVELOP
LATER FRI AND POSSIBLY INTO SAT. DEPENDING ON HOW THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY AND TIMING OF ASSOCIATED SFC BOUNDARIES TRACK FRI-
SAT...THERE COULD BE ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR P-TYPE ISSUES WITH ANY
LINGERING PRECIP FRIDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...SOME GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT ANY SOUTHERN PIECES OF ENERGY AND WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACK FURTHER SOUTH WITH LESS IMPACTS ON OUR REGION.
SO...AT THIS TIME...GENERALLY HAVE INDICATED ONLY CHC POPS FOR
THIS TIME PERIOD...MAINLY FOR RAIN SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH SOME SNOW
COULD OCCUR FRI NT INTO SAT MORNING DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING
AND TRACK OF SYSTEMS.

SUN...A RETURN TO BELOW...TO POTENTIALLY WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IS
QUITE POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF ANY PREVIOUS SYSTEM. IT SHOULD BE
GENERALLY DRY...ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS OF SNOW OR
RAIN DEPENDING ON INSTABILITY AND OVERALL PROGRESSION OF UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY.

TEMPERATURE WISE...HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND
50S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. HIGHS FRIDAY
GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH UPPER 40S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TEENS TO THE 20S. HIGHS SUNDAY IN
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 630 AM...THE INITIAL BAND OF SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT WAS ALREADY MOVING THROUGH THE TAF
SITES AND WILL LIKELY BE EAST OF THE REGION BY 12Z (THE START OF
THE TAF PERIOD). EVEN AFTER THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH...THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS (MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS LATER IN THE DAY...WILL
CONTINUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING
THE MID AFTERNOON PERIOD. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THERE WILL STILL
BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALSO AFFECTS
THE REGION.

ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A FEW WEATHER FEATURES AFFECTING THE REGION
DURING THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z TUESDAY...MOISTURE IS LIMITED
AND FORCING IS RELATIVELY WEAK...SO FOR THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF
TAF SITES HAVE GENERALLY FORECAST VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE
TAF PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION IS AT KGFL...WHERE A TEMPO GROUP FOR
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS DUE TO SNOW SHOWERS HAS BEEN FORECAST BETWEEN 12Z
AND 15Z. OTHERWISE...THE THREAT OF SHOWERS IS LOW AND TIMING
DIFFICULT...SO HAVE ONLY INDICATED VCSH DURING THE DAY AT THE
OTHER TAF SITES AND DURING OTHER TIMES OF THE TAFS.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AT 8 TO 12
KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS. AFTER THE WARM FRONT THE WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS WITH
GUSTS OF 18 TO 25 KTS DURING MID/LATE MONDAY MORNING. BY MID
AFTERNOON THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WESTERLY AFTER THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH WITH SPEEDS OF 12 TO 18 KTS AND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30
KTS. AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...THE SPEEDS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH...DROPPING TO 5 TO 10 KTS BY LATE TONIGHT...WITH SOME
GUSTS TO 15 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH TODAY...

A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION EARLY MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS
FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST. A COLD FRONT COULD BRING A FEW MORE
SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK
IN TONIGHT. ANOTHER CLIPPER TRACKING MAINLY SOUTH OF THE REGION
COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 55 PERCENT MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 70 AND 100 PERCENT TONIGHT
AND MONDAY NIGHT.

A SOUTH WIND AVERAGE 10 TO 20 MPH...THEN BECOME WEST TO
NORTHWEST BY WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH BY AFTERNOON. THE WIND WILL
DIMINISHING DOWN 5-15 MPH LATE MONDAY NIGHT...LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE SLOW ANY RISES.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...AND SOME AREAS MAY NOT SEE PRECIPITATION. SOME OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.

ANOTHER DISTURBANCE COULD BRING A LITTLE MORE RAIN OR SNOW TO MAINLY AREAS SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 90 TUESDAY. QPF AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT...UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH
WHICH SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR HSA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE SNOWPACK IN PLACE...
AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...KL/GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV



000
FXUS61 KALY 301044
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
645 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW MAINLY
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...MAINLY EARLY TODAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL WHIP ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON OFFERING MORE
SCATTERED SHOWERS OF RAIN...GRAUPEL OR MOUNTAIN SNOW. THERE WILL
ALSO BE SOME GUSTY WINDS AS WELL. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN
TONIGHT...BUT A DISTURBANCE WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A
LITTLE MORE PRECIPITATION TO MAINLY AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 ON
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE REGAINS CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

AS OF 630 AM EST...SNOW SHOWERS WERE REPORTED THROUGHOUT OUR COUNTY
WARNING AREA (CWA) WHICH IN SOME CASES WAS COATING THE GROUND. THIS
FIRST LINE OF SNOW SHOWERS WAS ALREADY IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING WEST
OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. THERE WERE MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS UPSTREAM
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS DUE TO BROAD ASCENT AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY.


THE LATEST HRRR INDICATED NOT MUCH ACTIVITY BEHIND THIS BATCH.
HOWEVER...UPSTREAM A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION BY
AFTERNOON...AND THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE
(INCREASING COLD ALOFT). THEREFORE...WE FEEL PRETTY CONFIDENT
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS OF RAIN...GRAUPEL WILL DEVELOP. THIS IS
HINTED BY THE HRRR. AS IT TURNS COLDER ALOFT...ANY OF THESE SHOWERS
COULD TURN BACK TO SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS ELEVATIONS HIGHER THAN 2500
FEET LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO...THERE COULD ACTUALLY BE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS BRIEFLY OFF OF ONTARIO...DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY
BY LATE IN THE DAY.

SO FOR THIS UPDATE...JUST FINAGLED WITH HOURLY POPS...BUT KEEP
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO THE AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING TO NO
POPS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY BY LATE IN THE DAY.


ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THIS MORNING WILL LOCALIZED AND CONFINED TO
THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE AN INCH OR TWO COULD ACCUMULATE. NOTHING
MORE THAN A DUSTING TO AN INCH (IF THAT) IS EXPECTED IN ANY VALLEY
AREAS.

THIS AFTERNOON...THERE SHOULD BE NO REAL ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS...EVEN OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TRICKY TO FORECAST. THEY WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION COVERAGE. LESS
PRECIPITATION...MORE BREAKS OF SUNSHINE AND A BRIEF GUSTY SW WIND
COULD PROPEL TEMPERATURES PAST 50 IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT FOR THE
FIRST TIME IN 92 DAYS. HOWEVER...WE LEANED MORE WITH THE CLOUDS AND
ENOUGH SHOWER ACTIVITY TO HOLD HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE UPPER 40S IN
AND AROUND  THE CAPITAL REGION...BUT REACHING 50 OR A LITTLE HIGHER
SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...40-45 HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE WIND WILL BE BRISK OUT OF THE SOUTH THIS MORNING 10-20 MPH WITH
SOME HIGHER GUSTS...ESPECIALLY AT THE ONSET OF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
AS EVAPORATIVE COOLING COULD MIX A PRETTY STRONG WSW LOW LEVEL JET
TO THE SURFACE. AS THE COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH...THE WIND WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST AT SIMILAR SPEEDS. THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR
GUSTS 35-45 MPH...JUST BELOW WIND ADVISORY THRESHOLDS...BUT WE WILL
MONITOR.   THE QPF WILL LIGHT THIS SYSTEM...WELL UNDER A QUARTER OF
AN INCH...AND IN SOME PLACES FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD...PERHAPS NOT
EVEN MEASURING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN RESULTING IN A CLEARING
SKY AND A GRADUAL DIMINISHING WIND (AFTER SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE
EVENING)...BUT PROBABLY NOT GO COMPLETELY CALM. NIGHT TIME LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S...EXCEPT UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

A TRAILING PIECE OF NORTHERN STREAM UPPER ENERGY TRACKS SOUTHEAST
OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND TRACKS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TUESDAY...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A PRECIPITATION
SHIELD...POSSIBLY EXTENDING JUST SOUTH OF I-90. CLOUDS WILL EXTEND
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA. WHILE ON PAPER IT LOOKS COLD
ENOUGH FOR THIS PRECIPITATION TO BE SNOW...THAT FACT THAT IT IS
NEARLY APRIL...THE AIR MASS WILL NOT BE ALL THAT COLD...AND MUCH OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL DURING THE DAY ALLOWING SOLAR INFLUENCE
THROUGH THE CLOUDS...PTYPE WILL BE A CHALLENGE. IF THE PRECIPITATION
IS LIGHT ENOUGH (WHICH WE BELIEVE WILL BE THE CASE) WE WOULD
PROBABLY BE LOOKING AT SNOW AT ELEVATIONS HIGHER THAN 1500
FEET...AND RAIN OR RAIN SNOW MIX IN THE VALLEY WITH VERY LITTLE IF
ANY ACCUMULATION. EVEN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACCUMULATIONS (IF
ANY) LOOK LIGHT BUT AGAIN WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR LATER TRENDS TO
SEE IF THERE SIGNALS RAMPING UP THE QPF (WHICH WOULD FAVOR MORE SNOW
OVER RAIN AND OF COURSE MORE ACCUMULATION). WE KEPT POPS IN THE
CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW...EVEN THOUGH SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES
HIGHER CHANCES THAN THAT TO OUR SOUTH.

PROJECT HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS (POSSIBLY
HIGHEST NORTH OF ALBANY WHERE THE CLOUDS WILL BE THE THINNEST). HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 30S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN...IF
PRECIPITATION TURNS OUT TO BE HEAVIER...THESE HIGHS WOULD HAVE TO BE
LOWERED SEVERAL DEGREES.

THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ON TUESDAY EVENING...LEAVING HIGH PRESSURE
TO BUILD BACK IN. THE SKY SHOULD CLEAR AND WITH LIGHT WIND
TEMPERATURES WILL TANK (ESPECIALLY IN ANY AREAS THAT PICK UP EVEN
FRESH COATING OF SNOW). LOWS WILL DIP BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S
ALBANY SOUTHWARD...15-20 FURTHER NORTH AND WEST.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY DECENT DAY (AT LEAST BY THIS SPRING
STANDARDS). BRIGHT SUNSHINE WILL BOLSTER TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 40S IN THE VALLEYS...MID TO UPPER 30S HIGHER TERRAIN.
THESE VALUES ARE STILL A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY REGARDING THE HANDLING OF FAST MOVING
PACIFIC SHORTWAVE ENERGY DURING THE FRI-SAT TIME PERIOD.

THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE DEAMPLIFYING AT THE START OF THE
EXTENDED ACROSS THE U.S...AS THE PERSISTENT POLAR VORTEX RELAXES AND
REORIENTS A BIT FURTHER N AND W ACROSS CANADA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
FAST MOVING PACIFIC SYSTEMS TO TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
U.S. RIDGING AHEAD OF ONE OF THESE DISTURBANCES SHOULD BRING A
PERIOD OF MILDER TEMPERATURES FOR THU-FRI...BEFORE TEMPS TREND BACK
TO BELOW NORMAL BY NEXT WEEKEND AS MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ONCE
AGAIN FALL ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

THU-SAT NT...A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL TRACK EAST FROM
THE WESTERN U.S. DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH A NORTHERN PIECE
TRACKING INTO CENTRAL CANADA...WHILE A SOUTHERN ONE TRACKS INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. FRONTAL SYSTEMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN
ONE SHOULD IMPACT OUR REGION THU...WITH A WARM FRONT
INITIALLY...THEN A COLD FRONT SOMETIME THU NT OR FRI. THIS SHOULD
BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION THU AFTN-EARLY FRI. THEN...AS
THE SOUTHERN PIECE OF ENERGY TRACKS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
EVENTUALLY THE EASTERN U.S...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP
ALONG THE COLD FRONT...AND ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO LINGER/REDEVELOP
LATER FRI AND POSSIBLY INTO SAT. DEPENDING ON HOW THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY AND TIMING OF ASSOCIATED SFC BOUNDARIES TRACK FRI-
SAT...THERE COULD BE ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR P-TYPE ISSUES WITH ANY
LINGERING PRECIP FRIDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...SOME GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT ANY SOUTHERN PIECES OF ENERGY AND WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACK FURTHER SOUTH WITH LESS IMPACTS ON OUR REGION.
SO...AT THIS TIME...GENERALLY HAVE INDICATED ONLY CHC POPS FOR
THIS TIME PERIOD...MAINLY FOR RAIN SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH SOME SNOW
COULD OCCUR FRI NT INTO SAT MORNING DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING
AND TRACK OF SYSTEMS.

SUN...A RETURN TO BELOW...TO POTENTIALLY WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IS
QUITE POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF ANY PREVIOUS SYSTEM. IT SHOULD BE
GENERALLY DRY...ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS OF SNOW OR
RAIN DEPENDING ON INSTABILITY AND OVERALL PROGRESSION OF UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY.

TEMPERATURE WISE...HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND
50S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. HIGHS FRIDAY
GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH UPPER 40S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TEENS TO THE 20S. HIGHS SUNDAY IN
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 630 AM...THE INITIAL BAND OF SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT WAS ALREADY MOVING THROUGH THE TAF
SITES AND WILL LIKELY BE EAST OF THE REGION BY 12Z (THE START OF
THE TAF PERIOD). EVEN AFTER THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH...THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS (MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS LATER IN THE DAY...WILL
CONTINUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING
THE MID AFTERNOON PERIOD. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THERE WILL STILL
BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALSO AFFECTS
THE REGION.

ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A FEW WEATHER FEATURES AFFECTING THE REGION
DURING THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z TUESDAY...MOISTURE IS LIMITED
AND FORCING IS RELATIVELY WEAK...SO FOR THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF
TAF SITES HAVE GENERALLY FORECAST VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE
TAF PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION IS AT KGFL...WHERE A TEMPO GROUP FOR
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS DUE TO SNOW SHOWERS HAS BEEN FORECAST BETWEEN 12Z
AND 15Z. OTHERWISE...THE THREAT OF SHOWERS IS LOW AND TIMING
DIFFICULT...SO HAVE ONLY INDICATED VCSH DURING THE DAY AT THE
OTHER TAF SITES AND DURING OTHER TIMES OF THE TAFS.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AT 8 TO 12
KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS. AFTER THE WARM FRONT THE WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS WITH
GUSTS OF 18 TO 25 KTS DURING MID/LATE MONDAY MORNING. BY MID
AFTERNOON THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WESTERLY AFTER THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH WITH SPEEDS OF 12 TO 18 KTS AND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30
KTS. AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...THE SPEEDS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH...DROPPING TO 5 TO 10 KTS BY LATE TONIGHT...WITH SOME
GUSTS TO 15 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH TODAY...

A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION EARLY MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS
FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST. A COLD FRONT COULD BRING A FEW MORE
SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK
IN TONIGHT. ANOTHER CLIPPER TRACKING MAINLY SOUTH OF THE REGION
COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 55 PERCENT MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 70 AND 100 PERCENT TONIGHT
AND MONDAY NIGHT.

A SOUTH WIND AVERAGE 10 TO 20 MPH...THEN BECOME WEST TO
NORTHWEST BY WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH BY AFTERNOON. THE WIND WILL
DIMINISHING DOWN 5-15 MPH LATE MONDAY NIGHT...LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE SLOW ANY RISES.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...AND SOME AREAS MAY NOT SEE PRECIPITATION. SOME OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.

ANOTHER DISTURBANCE COULD BRING A LITTLE MORE RAIN OR SNOW TO MAINLY AREAS SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 90 TUESDAY. QPF AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT...UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH
WHICH SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR HSA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE SNOWPACK IN PLACE...
AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...KL/GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV



000
FXUS61 KALY 301044
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
645 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW MAINLY
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...MAINLY EARLY TODAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL WHIP ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON OFFERING MORE
SCATTERED SHOWERS OF RAIN...GRAUPEL OR MOUNTAIN SNOW. THERE WILL
ALSO BE SOME GUSTY WINDS AS WELL. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN
TONIGHT...BUT A DISTURBANCE WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A
LITTLE MORE PRECIPITATION TO MAINLY AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 ON
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE REGAINS CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

AS OF 630 AM EST...SNOW SHOWERS WERE REPORTED THROUGHOUT OUR COUNTY
WARNING AREA (CWA) WHICH IN SOME CASES WAS COATING THE GROUND. THIS
FIRST LINE OF SNOW SHOWERS WAS ALREADY IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING WEST
OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. THERE WERE MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS UPSTREAM
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS DUE TO BROAD ASCENT AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY.


THE LATEST HRRR INDICATED NOT MUCH ACTIVITY BEHIND THIS BATCH.
HOWEVER...UPSTREAM A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION BY
AFTERNOON...AND THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE
(INCREASING COLD ALOFT). THEREFORE...WE FEEL PRETTY CONFIDENT
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS OF RAIN...GRAUPEL WILL DEVELOP. THIS IS
HINTED BY THE HRRR. AS IT TURNS COLDER ALOFT...ANY OF THESE SHOWERS
COULD TURN BACK TO SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS ELEVATIONS HIGHER THAN 2500
FEET LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO...THERE COULD ACTUALLY BE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS BRIEFLY OFF OF ONTARIO...DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY
BY LATE IN THE DAY.

SO FOR THIS UPDATE...JUST FINAGLED WITH HOURLY POPS...BUT KEEP
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO THE AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING TO NO
POPS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY BY LATE IN THE DAY.


ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THIS MORNING WILL LOCALIZED AND CONFINED TO
THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE AN INCH OR TWO COULD ACCUMULATE. NOTHING
MORE THAN A DUSTING TO AN INCH (IF THAT) IS EXPECTED IN ANY VALLEY
AREAS.

THIS AFTERNOON...THERE SHOULD BE NO REAL ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS...EVEN OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TRICKY TO FORECAST. THEY WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION COVERAGE. LESS
PRECIPITATION...MORE BREAKS OF SUNSHINE AND A BRIEF GUSTY SW WIND
COULD PROPEL TEMPERATURES PAST 50 IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT FOR THE
FIRST TIME IN 92 DAYS. HOWEVER...WE LEANED MORE WITH THE CLOUDS AND
ENOUGH SHOWER ACTIVITY TO HOLD HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE UPPER 40S IN
AND AROUND  THE CAPITAL REGION...BUT REACHING 50 OR A LITTLE HIGHER
SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...40-45 HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE WIND WILL BE BRISK OUT OF THE SOUTH THIS MORNING 10-20 MPH WITH
SOME HIGHER GUSTS...ESPECIALLY AT THE ONSET OF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
AS EVAPORATIVE COOLING COULD MIX A PRETTY STRONG WSW LOW LEVEL JET
TO THE SURFACE. AS THE COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH...THE WIND WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST AT SIMILAR SPEEDS. THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR
GUSTS 35-45 MPH...JUST BELOW WIND ADVISORY THRESHOLDS...BUT WE WILL
MONITOR.   THE QPF WILL LIGHT THIS SYSTEM...WELL UNDER A QUARTER OF
AN INCH...AND IN SOME PLACES FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD...PERHAPS NOT
EVEN MEASURING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN RESULTING IN A CLEARING
SKY AND A GRADUAL DIMINISHING WIND (AFTER SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE
EVENING)...BUT PROBABLY NOT GO COMPLETELY CALM. NIGHT TIME LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S...EXCEPT UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

A TRAILING PIECE OF NORTHERN STREAM UPPER ENERGY TRACKS SOUTHEAST
OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND TRACKS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TUESDAY...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A PRECIPITATION
SHIELD...POSSIBLY EXTENDING JUST SOUTH OF I-90. CLOUDS WILL EXTEND
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA. WHILE ON PAPER IT LOOKS COLD
ENOUGH FOR THIS PRECIPITATION TO BE SNOW...THAT FACT THAT IT IS
NEARLY APRIL...THE AIR MASS WILL NOT BE ALL THAT COLD...AND MUCH OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL DURING THE DAY ALLOWING SOLAR INFLUENCE
THROUGH THE CLOUDS...PTYPE WILL BE A CHALLENGE. IF THE PRECIPITATION
IS LIGHT ENOUGH (WHICH WE BELIEVE WILL BE THE CASE) WE WOULD
PROBABLY BE LOOKING AT SNOW AT ELEVATIONS HIGHER THAN 1500
FEET...AND RAIN OR RAIN SNOW MIX IN THE VALLEY WITH VERY LITTLE IF
ANY ACCUMULATION. EVEN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACCUMULATIONS (IF
ANY) LOOK LIGHT BUT AGAIN WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR LATER TRENDS TO
SEE IF THERE SIGNALS RAMPING UP THE QPF (WHICH WOULD FAVOR MORE SNOW
OVER RAIN AND OF COURSE MORE ACCUMULATION). WE KEPT POPS IN THE
CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW...EVEN THOUGH SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES
HIGHER CHANCES THAN THAT TO OUR SOUTH.

PROJECT HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS (POSSIBLY
HIGHEST NORTH OF ALBANY WHERE THE CLOUDS WILL BE THE THINNEST). HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 30S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN...IF
PRECIPITATION TURNS OUT TO BE HEAVIER...THESE HIGHS WOULD HAVE TO BE
LOWERED SEVERAL DEGREES.

THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ON TUESDAY EVENING...LEAVING HIGH PRESSURE
TO BUILD BACK IN. THE SKY SHOULD CLEAR AND WITH LIGHT WIND
TEMPERATURES WILL TANK (ESPECIALLY IN ANY AREAS THAT PICK UP EVEN
FRESH COATING OF SNOW). LOWS WILL DIP BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S
ALBANY SOUTHWARD...15-20 FURTHER NORTH AND WEST.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY DECENT DAY (AT LEAST BY THIS SPRING
STANDARDS). BRIGHT SUNSHINE WILL BOLSTER TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 40S IN THE VALLEYS...MID TO UPPER 30S HIGHER TERRAIN.
THESE VALUES ARE STILL A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY REGARDING THE HANDLING OF FAST MOVING
PACIFIC SHORTWAVE ENERGY DURING THE FRI-SAT TIME PERIOD.

THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE DEAMPLIFYING AT THE START OF THE
EXTENDED ACROSS THE U.S...AS THE PERSISTENT POLAR VORTEX RELAXES AND
REORIENTS A BIT FURTHER N AND W ACROSS CANADA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
FAST MOVING PACIFIC SYSTEMS TO TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
U.S. RIDGING AHEAD OF ONE OF THESE DISTURBANCES SHOULD BRING A
PERIOD OF MILDER TEMPERATURES FOR THU-FRI...BEFORE TEMPS TREND BACK
TO BELOW NORMAL BY NEXT WEEKEND AS MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ONCE
AGAIN FALL ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

THU-SAT NT...A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL TRACK EAST FROM
THE WESTERN U.S. DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH A NORTHERN PIECE
TRACKING INTO CENTRAL CANADA...WHILE A SOUTHERN ONE TRACKS INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. FRONTAL SYSTEMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN
ONE SHOULD IMPACT OUR REGION THU...WITH A WARM FRONT
INITIALLY...THEN A COLD FRONT SOMETIME THU NT OR FRI. THIS SHOULD
BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION THU AFTN-EARLY FRI. THEN...AS
THE SOUTHERN PIECE OF ENERGY TRACKS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
EVENTUALLY THE EASTERN U.S...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP
ALONG THE COLD FRONT...AND ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO LINGER/REDEVELOP
LATER FRI AND POSSIBLY INTO SAT. DEPENDING ON HOW THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY AND TIMING OF ASSOCIATED SFC BOUNDARIES TRACK FRI-
SAT...THERE COULD BE ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR P-TYPE ISSUES WITH ANY
LINGERING PRECIP FRIDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...SOME GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT ANY SOUTHERN PIECES OF ENERGY AND WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACK FURTHER SOUTH WITH LESS IMPACTS ON OUR REGION.
SO...AT THIS TIME...GENERALLY HAVE INDICATED ONLY CHC POPS FOR
THIS TIME PERIOD...MAINLY FOR RAIN SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH SOME SNOW
COULD OCCUR FRI NT INTO SAT MORNING DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING
AND TRACK OF SYSTEMS.

SUN...A RETURN TO BELOW...TO POTENTIALLY WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IS
QUITE POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF ANY PREVIOUS SYSTEM. IT SHOULD BE
GENERALLY DRY...ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS OF SNOW OR
RAIN DEPENDING ON INSTABILITY AND OVERALL PROGRESSION OF UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY.

TEMPERATURE WISE...HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND
50S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. HIGHS FRIDAY
GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH UPPER 40S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TEENS TO THE 20S. HIGHS SUNDAY IN
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 630 AM...THE INITIAL BAND OF SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT WAS ALREADY MOVING THROUGH THE TAF
SITES AND WILL LIKELY BE EAST OF THE REGION BY 12Z (THE START OF
THE TAF PERIOD). EVEN AFTER THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH...THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS (MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS LATER IN THE DAY...WILL
CONTINUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING
THE MID AFTERNOON PERIOD. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THERE WILL STILL
BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALSO AFFECTS
THE REGION.

ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A FEW WEATHER FEATURES AFFECTING THE REGION
DURING THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z TUESDAY...MOISTURE IS LIMITED
AND FORCING IS RELATIVELY WEAK...SO FOR THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF
TAF SITES HAVE GENERALLY FORECAST VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE
TAF PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION IS AT KGFL...WHERE A TEMPO GROUP FOR
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS DUE TO SNOW SHOWERS HAS BEEN FORECAST BETWEEN 12Z
AND 15Z. OTHERWISE...THE THREAT OF SHOWERS IS LOW AND TIMING
DIFFICULT...SO HAVE ONLY INDICATED VCSH DURING THE DAY AT THE
OTHER TAF SITES AND DURING OTHER TIMES OF THE TAFS.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AT 8 TO 12
KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS. AFTER THE WARM FRONT THE WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS WITH
GUSTS OF 18 TO 25 KTS DURING MID/LATE MONDAY MORNING. BY MID
AFTERNOON THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WESTERLY AFTER THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH WITH SPEEDS OF 12 TO 18 KTS AND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30
KTS. AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...THE SPEEDS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH...DROPPING TO 5 TO 10 KTS BY LATE TONIGHT...WITH SOME
GUSTS TO 15 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH TODAY...

A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION EARLY MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS
FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST. A COLD FRONT COULD BRING A FEW MORE
SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK
IN TONIGHT. ANOTHER CLIPPER TRACKING MAINLY SOUTH OF THE REGION
COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 55 PERCENT MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 70 AND 100 PERCENT TONIGHT
AND MONDAY NIGHT.

A SOUTH WIND AVERAGE 10 TO 20 MPH...THEN BECOME WEST TO
NORTHWEST BY WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH BY AFTERNOON. THE WIND WILL
DIMINISHING DOWN 5-15 MPH LATE MONDAY NIGHT...LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE SLOW ANY RISES.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...AND SOME AREAS MAY NOT SEE PRECIPITATION. SOME OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.

ANOTHER DISTURBANCE COULD BRING A LITTLE MORE RAIN OR SNOW TO MAINLY AREAS SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 90 TUESDAY. QPF AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT...UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH
WHICH SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR HSA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE SNOWPACK IN PLACE...
AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...KL/GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV



000
FXUS61 KALY 301044
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
645 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW MAINLY
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...MAINLY EARLY TODAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL WHIP ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON OFFERING MORE
SCATTERED SHOWERS OF RAIN...GRAUPEL OR MOUNTAIN SNOW. THERE WILL
ALSO BE SOME GUSTY WINDS AS WELL. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN
TONIGHT...BUT A DISTURBANCE WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A
LITTLE MORE PRECIPITATION TO MAINLY AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 ON
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE REGAINS CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

AS OF 630 AM EST...SNOW SHOWERS WERE REPORTED THROUGHOUT OUR COUNTY
WARNING AREA (CWA) WHICH IN SOME CASES WAS COATING THE GROUND. THIS
FIRST LINE OF SNOW SHOWERS WAS ALREADY IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING WEST
OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. THERE WERE MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS UPSTREAM
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS DUE TO BROAD ASCENT AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY.


THE LATEST HRRR INDICATED NOT MUCH ACTIVITY BEHIND THIS BATCH.
HOWEVER...UPSTREAM A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION BY
AFTERNOON...AND THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE
(INCREASING COLD ALOFT). THEREFORE...WE FEEL PRETTY CONFIDENT
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS OF RAIN...GRAUPEL WILL DEVELOP. THIS IS
HINTED BY THE HRRR. AS IT TURNS COLDER ALOFT...ANY OF THESE SHOWERS
COULD TURN BACK TO SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS ELEVATIONS HIGHER THAN 2500
FEET LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO...THERE COULD ACTUALLY BE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS BRIEFLY OFF OF ONTARIO...DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY
BY LATE IN THE DAY.

SO FOR THIS UPDATE...JUST FINAGLED WITH HOURLY POPS...BUT KEEP
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO THE AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING TO NO
POPS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY BY LATE IN THE DAY.


ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THIS MORNING WILL LOCALIZED AND CONFINED TO
THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE AN INCH OR TWO COULD ACCUMULATE. NOTHING
MORE THAN A DUSTING TO AN INCH (IF THAT) IS EXPECTED IN ANY VALLEY
AREAS.

THIS AFTERNOON...THERE SHOULD BE NO REAL ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS...EVEN OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TRICKY TO FORECAST. THEY WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION COVERAGE. LESS
PRECIPITATION...MORE BREAKS OF SUNSHINE AND A BRIEF GUSTY SW WIND
COULD PROPEL TEMPERATURES PAST 50 IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT FOR THE
FIRST TIME IN 92 DAYS. HOWEVER...WE LEANED MORE WITH THE CLOUDS AND
ENOUGH SHOWER ACTIVITY TO HOLD HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE UPPER 40S IN
AND AROUND  THE CAPITAL REGION...BUT REACHING 50 OR A LITTLE HIGHER
SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...40-45 HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE WIND WILL BE BRISK OUT OF THE SOUTH THIS MORNING 10-20 MPH WITH
SOME HIGHER GUSTS...ESPECIALLY AT THE ONSET OF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
AS EVAPORATIVE COOLING COULD MIX A PRETTY STRONG WSW LOW LEVEL JET
TO THE SURFACE. AS THE COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH...THE WIND WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST AT SIMILAR SPEEDS. THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR
GUSTS 35-45 MPH...JUST BELOW WIND ADVISORY THRESHOLDS...BUT WE WILL
MONITOR.   THE QPF WILL LIGHT THIS SYSTEM...WELL UNDER A QUARTER OF
AN INCH...AND IN SOME PLACES FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD...PERHAPS NOT
EVEN MEASURING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN RESULTING IN A CLEARING
SKY AND A GRADUAL DIMINISHING WIND (AFTER SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE
EVENING)...BUT PROBABLY NOT GO COMPLETELY CALM. NIGHT TIME LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S...EXCEPT UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

A TRAILING PIECE OF NORTHERN STREAM UPPER ENERGY TRACKS SOUTHEAST
OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND TRACKS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TUESDAY...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A PRECIPITATION
SHIELD...POSSIBLY EXTENDING JUST SOUTH OF I-90. CLOUDS WILL EXTEND
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA. WHILE ON PAPER IT LOOKS COLD
ENOUGH FOR THIS PRECIPITATION TO BE SNOW...THAT FACT THAT IT IS
NEARLY APRIL...THE AIR MASS WILL NOT BE ALL THAT COLD...AND MUCH OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL DURING THE DAY ALLOWING SOLAR INFLUENCE
THROUGH THE CLOUDS...PTYPE WILL BE A CHALLENGE. IF THE PRECIPITATION
IS LIGHT ENOUGH (WHICH WE BELIEVE WILL BE THE CASE) WE WOULD
PROBABLY BE LOOKING AT SNOW AT ELEVATIONS HIGHER THAN 1500
FEET...AND RAIN OR RAIN SNOW MIX IN THE VALLEY WITH VERY LITTLE IF
ANY ACCUMULATION. EVEN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACCUMULATIONS (IF
ANY) LOOK LIGHT BUT AGAIN WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR LATER TRENDS TO
SEE IF THERE SIGNALS RAMPING UP THE QPF (WHICH WOULD FAVOR MORE SNOW
OVER RAIN AND OF COURSE MORE ACCUMULATION). WE KEPT POPS IN THE
CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW...EVEN THOUGH SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES
HIGHER CHANCES THAN THAT TO OUR SOUTH.

PROJECT HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS (POSSIBLY
HIGHEST NORTH OF ALBANY WHERE THE CLOUDS WILL BE THE THINNEST). HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 30S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN...IF
PRECIPITATION TURNS OUT TO BE HEAVIER...THESE HIGHS WOULD HAVE TO BE
LOWERED SEVERAL DEGREES.

THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ON TUESDAY EVENING...LEAVING HIGH PRESSURE
TO BUILD BACK IN. THE SKY SHOULD CLEAR AND WITH LIGHT WIND
TEMPERATURES WILL TANK (ESPECIALLY IN ANY AREAS THAT PICK UP EVEN
FRESH COATING OF SNOW). LOWS WILL DIP BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S
ALBANY SOUTHWARD...15-20 FURTHER NORTH AND WEST.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY DECENT DAY (AT LEAST BY THIS SPRING
STANDARDS). BRIGHT SUNSHINE WILL BOLSTER TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 40S IN THE VALLEYS...MID TO UPPER 30S HIGHER TERRAIN.
THESE VALUES ARE STILL A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY REGARDING THE HANDLING OF FAST MOVING
PACIFIC SHORTWAVE ENERGY DURING THE FRI-SAT TIME PERIOD.

THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE DEAMPLIFYING AT THE START OF THE
EXTENDED ACROSS THE U.S...AS THE PERSISTENT POLAR VORTEX RELAXES AND
REORIENTS A BIT FURTHER N AND W ACROSS CANADA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
FAST MOVING PACIFIC SYSTEMS TO TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
U.S. RIDGING AHEAD OF ONE OF THESE DISTURBANCES SHOULD BRING A
PERIOD OF MILDER TEMPERATURES FOR THU-FRI...BEFORE TEMPS TREND BACK
TO BELOW NORMAL BY NEXT WEEKEND AS MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ONCE
AGAIN FALL ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

THU-SAT NT...A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL TRACK EAST FROM
THE WESTERN U.S. DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH A NORTHERN PIECE
TRACKING INTO CENTRAL CANADA...WHILE A SOUTHERN ONE TRACKS INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. FRONTAL SYSTEMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN
ONE SHOULD IMPACT OUR REGION THU...WITH A WARM FRONT
INITIALLY...THEN A COLD FRONT SOMETIME THU NT OR FRI. THIS SHOULD
BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION THU AFTN-EARLY FRI. THEN...AS
THE SOUTHERN PIECE OF ENERGY TRACKS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
EVENTUALLY THE EASTERN U.S...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP
ALONG THE COLD FRONT...AND ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO LINGER/REDEVELOP
LATER FRI AND POSSIBLY INTO SAT. DEPENDING ON HOW THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY AND TIMING OF ASSOCIATED SFC BOUNDARIES TRACK FRI-
SAT...THERE COULD BE ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR P-TYPE ISSUES WITH ANY
LINGERING PRECIP FRIDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...SOME GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT ANY SOUTHERN PIECES OF ENERGY AND WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACK FURTHER SOUTH WITH LESS IMPACTS ON OUR REGION.
SO...AT THIS TIME...GENERALLY HAVE INDICATED ONLY CHC POPS FOR
THIS TIME PERIOD...MAINLY FOR RAIN SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH SOME SNOW
COULD OCCUR FRI NT INTO SAT MORNING DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING
AND TRACK OF SYSTEMS.

SUN...A RETURN TO BELOW...TO POTENTIALLY WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IS
QUITE POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF ANY PREVIOUS SYSTEM. IT SHOULD BE
GENERALLY DRY...ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS OF SNOW OR
RAIN DEPENDING ON INSTABILITY AND OVERALL PROGRESSION OF UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY.

TEMPERATURE WISE...HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND
50S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. HIGHS FRIDAY
GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH UPPER 40S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TEENS TO THE 20S. HIGHS SUNDAY IN
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 630 AM...THE INITIAL BAND OF SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT WAS ALREADY MOVING THROUGH THE TAF
SITES AND WILL LIKELY BE EAST OF THE REGION BY 12Z (THE START OF
THE TAF PERIOD). EVEN AFTER THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH...THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS (MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS LATER IN THE DAY...WILL
CONTINUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING
THE MID AFTERNOON PERIOD. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THERE WILL STILL
BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALSO AFFECTS
THE REGION.

ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A FEW WEATHER FEATURES AFFECTING THE REGION
DURING THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z TUESDAY...MOISTURE IS LIMITED
AND FORCING IS RELATIVELY WEAK...SO FOR THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF
TAF SITES HAVE GENERALLY FORECAST VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE
TAF PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION IS AT KGFL...WHERE A TEMPO GROUP FOR
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS DUE TO SNOW SHOWERS HAS BEEN FORECAST BETWEEN 12Z
AND 15Z. OTHERWISE...THE THREAT OF SHOWERS IS LOW AND TIMING
DIFFICULT...SO HAVE ONLY INDICATED VCSH DURING THE DAY AT THE
OTHER TAF SITES AND DURING OTHER TIMES OF THE TAFS.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AT 8 TO 12
KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS. AFTER THE WARM FRONT THE WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS WITH
GUSTS OF 18 TO 25 KTS DURING MID/LATE MONDAY MORNING. BY MID
AFTERNOON THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WESTERLY AFTER THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH WITH SPEEDS OF 12 TO 18 KTS AND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30
KTS. AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...THE SPEEDS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH...DROPPING TO 5 TO 10 KTS BY LATE TONIGHT...WITH SOME
GUSTS TO 15 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH TODAY...

A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION EARLY MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS
FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST. A COLD FRONT COULD BRING A FEW MORE
SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK
IN TONIGHT. ANOTHER CLIPPER TRACKING MAINLY SOUTH OF THE REGION
COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 55 PERCENT MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 70 AND 100 PERCENT TONIGHT
AND MONDAY NIGHT.

A SOUTH WIND AVERAGE 10 TO 20 MPH...THEN BECOME WEST TO
NORTHWEST BY WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH BY AFTERNOON. THE WIND WILL
DIMINISHING DOWN 5-15 MPH LATE MONDAY NIGHT...LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE SLOW ANY RISES.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...AND SOME AREAS MAY NOT SEE PRECIPITATION. SOME OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.

ANOTHER DISTURBANCE COULD BRING A LITTLE MORE RAIN OR SNOW TO MAINLY AREAS SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 90 TUESDAY. QPF AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT...UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH
WHICH SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR HSA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE SNOWPACK IN PLACE...
AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...KL/GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV



000
FXUS61 KALY 301023
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
623 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW MAINLY
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST. A COLD
FRONT COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER CLIPPER
TRACKING SOUTH OF THE REGION COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO
SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 430 AM EST...RADARS INDICATED SHOWERS WERE WORKING ACROSS OUR
WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA)...MAINLY WEST OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY. SOME OF THESE PROBABLY AREN/T REACHING THE GROUND AS THERE
WAS A LOT OF DRY AIR TO SATURATE IN THE COLUMN. WITH TIME...MOST OF
THESE SHOWERS WOULD PRODUCE A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH LIQUID
PRECIPITATION. IT IS COLD ENOUGH FOR THESE TO BE SNOW...EVEN THOUGH
TEMPERATURES WERE MAINLY ABOVE FREEZING IN THE VALLEY (LOWER TO MID
30S)...MID TO UPPER 20S HIGHER TERRAIN. AS THE SNOW SHOWERS
FALL...THEY MIGHT EVEN BRIEFLY BUMP TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN A COUPLE
OF DEGREES DUE TO EVAPORATIVE COOLING.

THIS FIRST BATCH IS ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION AND LOOK TO
EXIT OUR REGION DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE MORNING. THE LATEST
HRRR INDICATED NOT MUCH ACTIVITY BEHIND THIS BATCH.
HOWEVER...UPSTREAM A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION BY
AFTERNOON...AND THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE DESTABILIZING (INCREASING
COLD ALOFT). THEREFORE...WE FEEL PRETTY CONFIDENT ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS OF RAIN...GRAUPEL WILL DEVELOP. THIS IS HINTED BY
THE HRRR. AS IT TURNS COLDER ALOFT...ANY OF THESE SHOWERS COULD TURN
BACK TO SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS ELEVATIONS HIGHER THAN 2500 FEET LATER
THIS AFTERNOON.

SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THIS MORNING WILL LOCALIZED AND CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE AN INCH OR TWO COULD ACCUMULATE. NOTHING MORE
THAN A DUSTING TO AN INCH (IF THAT) IS EXPECTED IN ANY VALLEY
AREAS...MAINLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

THIS AFTERNOON...THERE SHOULD BE NO REAL ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS...EVEN OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TRICKY TO FORECAST. THEY WILL BE HIGHLY ON
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION COVERAGE. LESS PRECIPITATION AND MORE
BREAKS OF SUNSHINE COULD AND BRIEF GUSTY WSW WIND COULD PROPEL
TEMPERATURES PAST 50 IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT FOR THE FIRST TIME IN
92 DAYS. HOWEVER...WE LEAN WITH MORE CLOUDS AND ENOUGH SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO HOLD HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE UPPER 40S IN AND AROUND
THE CAPITAL REGION...BUT REACHING 50 OR A LITTLE HIGHER SOUTH OF THE
CAPITAL REGION...40-45 HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE WIND WILL BE BRISK OUT OF THE SOUTH THIS MORNING 10-20 MPH WITH
SOME HIGHER GUSTS...ESPECIALLY AT THE ONSET OF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
AS EVAPORATIVE COOLING COULD MIX A PRETTY STRONG WSW LOW LEVEL JET
TO THE SURFACE. AS THE COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH...THE WIND WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST AT SIMILAR SPEEDS. THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR
GUSTS 35-45 MPH...JUST BELOW WIND ADVISORY THRESHOLDS...BUT WE WILL
MONITOR.   THE QPF WILL LIGHT THIS SYSTEM...WELL UNDER A QUARTER OF
AN INCH...AND IN SOME PLACES FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD...PERHAPS NOT
EVEN MEASURING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN RESULTING IN A CLEARING
SKY AND A GRADUAL DIMINISHING WIND (AFTER SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE
EVENING)...BUT PROBABLY NOT GO COMPLETELY CALM. NIGHT TIME LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S...EXCEPT UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

A TRAILING PIECE OF NORTHERN STREAM UPPER ENERGY TRACKS SOUTHEAST
OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND TRACKS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TUESDAY...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A PRECIPITATION
SHIELD...POSSIBLY EXTENDING JUST SOUTH OF I-90. CLOUDS WILL EXTEND
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA. WHILE ON PAPER IT LOOKS COLD
ENOUGH FOR THIS PRECIPITATION TO BE SNOW...THAT FACT THAT IT IS
NEARLY APRIL...THE AIR MASS WILL NOT BE ALL THAT COLD...AND MUCH OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL DURING THE DAY ALLOWING SOLAR INFLUENCE
THROUGH THE CLOUDS...PTYPE WILL BE A CHALLENGE. IF THE PRECIPITATION
IS LIGHT ENOUGH (WHICH WE BELIEVE WILL BE THE CASE) WE WOULD
PROBABLY BE LOOKING AT SNOW AT ELEVATIONS HIGHER THAN 1500
FEET...AND RAIN OR RAIN SNOW MIX IN THE VALLEY WITH VERY LITTLE IF
ANY ACCUMULATION. EVEN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACCUMULATIONS (IF
ANY) LOOK LIGHT BUT AGAIN WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR LATER TRENDS TO
SEE IF THERE SIGNALS RAMPING UP THE QPF (WHICH WOULD FAVOR MORE SNOW
OVER RAIN AND OF COURSE MORE ACCUMULATION). WE KEPT POPS IN THE
CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW...EVEN THOUGH SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES
HIGHER CHANCES THAN THAT TO OUR SOUTH.

PROJECT HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS (POSSIBLY
HIGHEST NORTH OF ALBANY WHERE THE CLOUDS WILL BE THE THINNEST). HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 30S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN...IF
PRECIPITATION TURNS OUT TO BE HEAVIER...THESE HIGHS WOULD HAVE TO BE
LOWERED SEVERAL DEGREES.

THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ON TUESDAY EVENING...LEAVING HIGH PRESSURE
TO BUILD BACK IN. THE SKY SHOULD CLEAR AND WITH LIGHT WIND
TEMPERATURES WILL TANK (ESPECIALLY IN ANY AREAS THAT PICK UP EVEN
FRESH COATING OF SNOW). LOWS WILL DIP BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S
ALBANY SOUTHWARD...15-20 FURTHER NORTH AND WEST.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY DECENT DAY (AT LEAST BY THIS SPRING
STANDARDS). BRIGHT SUNSHINE WILL BOLSTER TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 40S IN THE VALLEYS...MID TO UPPER 30S HIGHER TERRAIN.
THESE VALUES ARE STILL A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY REGARDING THE HANDLING OF FAST MOVING
PACIFIC SHORTWAVE ENERGY DURING THE FRI-SAT TIME PERIOD.

THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE DEAMPLIFYING AT THE START OF THE
EXTENDED ACROSS THE U.S...AS THE PERSISTENT POLAR VORTEX RELAXES AND
REORIENTS A BIT FURTHER N AND W ACROSS CANADA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
FAST MOVING PACIFIC SYSTEMS TO TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
U.S. RIDGING AHEAD OF ONE OF THESE DISTURBANCES SHOULD BRING A
PERIOD OF MILDER TEMPERATURES FOR THU-FRI...BEFORE TEMPS TREND BACK
TO BELOW NORMAL BY NEXT WEEKEND AS MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ONCE
AGAIN FALL ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

THU-SAT NT...A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL TRACK EAST FROM
THE WESTERN U.S. DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH A NORTHERN PIECE
TRACKING INTO CENTRAL CANADA...WHILE A SOUTHERN ONE TRACKS INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. FRONTAL SYSTEMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN
ONE SHOULD IMPACT OUR REGION THU...WITH A WARM FRONT
INITIALLY...THEN A COLD FRONT SOMETIME THU NT OR FRI. THIS SHOULD
BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION THU AFTN-EARLY FRI. THEN...AS
THE SOUTHERN PIECE OF ENERGY TRACKS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
EVENTUALLY THE EASTERN U.S...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP
ALONG THE COLD FRONT...AND ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO LINGER/REDEVELOP
LATER FRI AND POSSIBLY INTO SAT. DEPENDING ON HOW THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY AND TIMING OF ASSOCIATED SFC BOUNDARIES TRACK FRI-
SAT...THERE COULD BE ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR P-TYPE ISSUES WITH ANY
LINGERING PRECIP FRIDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...SOME GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT ANY SOUTHERN PIECES OF ENERGY AND WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACK FURTHER SOUTH WITH LESS IMPACTS ON OUR REGION.
SO...AT THIS TIME...GENERALLY HAVE INDICATED ONLY CHC POPS FOR
THIS TIME PERIOD...MAINLY FOR RAIN SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH SOME SNOW
COULD OCCUR FRI NT INTO SAT MORNING DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING
AND TRACK OF SYSTEMS.

SUN...A RETURN TO BELOW...TO POTENTIALLY WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IS
QUITE POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF ANY PREVIOUS SYSTEM. IT SHOULD BE
GENERALLY DRY...ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS OF SNOW OR
RAIN DEPENDING ON INSTABILITY AND OVERALL PROGRESSION OF UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY.

TEMPERATURE WISE...HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND
50S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. HIGHS FRIDAY
GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH UPPER 40S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TEENS TO THE 20S. HIGHS SUNDAY IN
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 630 AM...THE INITIAL BAND OF SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT WAS ALREADY MOVING THROUGH THE TAF
SITES AND WILL LIKELY BE EAST OF THE REGION BY 12Z (THE START OF
THE TAF PERIOD). EVEN AFTER THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH...THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS (MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS LATER IN THE DAY...WILL
CONTINUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING
THE MID AFTERNOON PERIOD. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THERE WILL STILL
BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALSO AFFECTS
THE REGION.

ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A FEW WEATHER FEATURES AFFECTING THE REGION
DURING THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z TUESDAY...MOISTURE IS LIMITED
AND FORCING IS RELATIVELY WEAK...SO FOR THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF
TAF SITES HAVE GENERALLY FORECAST VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE
TAF PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION IS AT KGFL...WHERE A TEMPO GROUP FOR
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS DUE TO SNOW SHOWERS HAS BEEN FORECAST BETWEEN 12Z
AND 15Z. OTHERWISE...THE THREAT OF SHOWERS IS LOW AND TIMING
DIFFICULT...SO HAVE ONLY INDICATED VCSH DURING THE DAY AT THE
OTHER TAF SITES AND DURING OTHER TIMES OF THE TAFS.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AT 8 TO 12
KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS. AFTER THE WARM FRONT THE WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS WITH
GUSTS OF 18 TO 25 KTS DURING MID/LATE MONDAY MORNING. BY MID
AFTERNOON THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WESTERLY AFTER THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH WITH SPEEDS OF 12 TO 18 KTS AND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30
KTS. AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...THE SPEEDS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH...DROPPING TO 5 TO 10 KTS BY LATE TONIGHT...WITH SOME
GUSTS TO 15 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH TODAY...

A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION EARLY MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS
FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST. A COLD FRONT COULD BRING A FEW MORE
SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK
IN TONIGHT. ANOTHER CLIPPER TRACKING MAINLY SOUTH OF THE REGION
COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 55 PERCENT MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 70 AND 100 PERCENT TONIGHT
AND MONDAY NIGHT.

A SOUTH WIND AVERAGE 10 TO 20 MPH...THEN BECOME WEST TO
NORTHWEST BY WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH BY AFTERNOON. THE WIND WILL
DIMINISHING DOWN 5-15 MPH LATE MONDAY NIGHT...LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE SLOW ANY RISES.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...AND SOME AREAS MAY NOT SEE PRECIPITATION. SOME OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.

ANOTHER DISTURBANCE COULD BRING A LITTLE MORE RAIN OR SNOW TO MAINLY AREAS SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 90 TUESDAY. QPF AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT...UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH
WHICH SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR HSA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE SNOWPACK IN PLACE...
AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...KL/GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV



000
FXUS61 KALY 301023
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
623 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW MAINLY
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST. A COLD
FRONT COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER CLIPPER
TRACKING SOUTH OF THE REGION COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO
SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 430 AM EST...RADARS INDICATED SHOWERS WERE WORKING ACROSS OUR
WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA)...MAINLY WEST OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY. SOME OF THESE PROBABLY AREN/T REACHING THE GROUND AS THERE
WAS A LOT OF DRY AIR TO SATURATE IN THE COLUMN. WITH TIME...MOST OF
THESE SHOWERS WOULD PRODUCE A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH LIQUID
PRECIPITATION. IT IS COLD ENOUGH FOR THESE TO BE SNOW...EVEN THOUGH
TEMPERATURES WERE MAINLY ABOVE FREEZING IN THE VALLEY (LOWER TO MID
30S)...MID TO UPPER 20S HIGHER TERRAIN. AS THE SNOW SHOWERS
FALL...THEY MIGHT EVEN BRIEFLY BUMP TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN A COUPLE
OF DEGREES DUE TO EVAPORATIVE COOLING.

THIS FIRST BATCH IS ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION AND LOOK TO
EXIT OUR REGION DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE MORNING. THE LATEST
HRRR INDICATED NOT MUCH ACTIVITY BEHIND THIS BATCH.
HOWEVER...UPSTREAM A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION BY
AFTERNOON...AND THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE DESTABILIZING (INCREASING
COLD ALOFT). THEREFORE...WE FEEL PRETTY CONFIDENT ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS OF RAIN...GRAUPEL WILL DEVELOP. THIS IS HINTED BY
THE HRRR. AS IT TURNS COLDER ALOFT...ANY OF THESE SHOWERS COULD TURN
BACK TO SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS ELEVATIONS HIGHER THAN 2500 FEET LATER
THIS AFTERNOON.

SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THIS MORNING WILL LOCALIZED AND CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE AN INCH OR TWO COULD ACCUMULATE. NOTHING MORE
THAN A DUSTING TO AN INCH (IF THAT) IS EXPECTED IN ANY VALLEY
AREAS...MAINLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

THIS AFTERNOON...THERE SHOULD BE NO REAL ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS...EVEN OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TRICKY TO FORECAST. THEY WILL BE HIGHLY ON
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION COVERAGE. LESS PRECIPITATION AND MORE
BREAKS OF SUNSHINE COULD AND BRIEF GUSTY WSW WIND COULD PROPEL
TEMPERATURES PAST 50 IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT FOR THE FIRST TIME IN
92 DAYS. HOWEVER...WE LEAN WITH MORE CLOUDS AND ENOUGH SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO HOLD HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE UPPER 40S IN AND AROUND
THE CAPITAL REGION...BUT REACHING 50 OR A LITTLE HIGHER SOUTH OF THE
CAPITAL REGION...40-45 HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE WIND WILL BE BRISK OUT OF THE SOUTH THIS MORNING 10-20 MPH WITH
SOME HIGHER GUSTS...ESPECIALLY AT THE ONSET OF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
AS EVAPORATIVE COOLING COULD MIX A PRETTY STRONG WSW LOW LEVEL JET
TO THE SURFACE. AS THE COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH...THE WIND WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST AT SIMILAR SPEEDS. THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR
GUSTS 35-45 MPH...JUST BELOW WIND ADVISORY THRESHOLDS...BUT WE WILL
MONITOR.   THE QPF WILL LIGHT THIS SYSTEM...WELL UNDER A QUARTER OF
AN INCH...AND IN SOME PLACES FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD...PERHAPS NOT
EVEN MEASURING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN RESULTING IN A CLEARING
SKY AND A GRADUAL DIMINISHING WIND (AFTER SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE
EVENING)...BUT PROBABLY NOT GO COMPLETELY CALM. NIGHT TIME LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S...EXCEPT UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

A TRAILING PIECE OF NORTHERN STREAM UPPER ENERGY TRACKS SOUTHEAST
OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND TRACKS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TUESDAY...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A PRECIPITATION
SHIELD...POSSIBLY EXTENDING JUST SOUTH OF I-90. CLOUDS WILL EXTEND
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA. WHILE ON PAPER IT LOOKS COLD
ENOUGH FOR THIS PRECIPITATION TO BE SNOW...THAT FACT THAT IT IS
NEARLY APRIL...THE AIR MASS WILL NOT BE ALL THAT COLD...AND MUCH OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL DURING THE DAY ALLOWING SOLAR INFLUENCE
THROUGH THE CLOUDS...PTYPE WILL BE A CHALLENGE. IF THE PRECIPITATION
IS LIGHT ENOUGH (WHICH WE BELIEVE WILL BE THE CASE) WE WOULD
PROBABLY BE LOOKING AT SNOW AT ELEVATIONS HIGHER THAN 1500
FEET...AND RAIN OR RAIN SNOW MIX IN THE VALLEY WITH VERY LITTLE IF
ANY ACCUMULATION. EVEN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACCUMULATIONS (IF
ANY) LOOK LIGHT BUT AGAIN WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR LATER TRENDS TO
SEE IF THERE SIGNALS RAMPING UP THE QPF (WHICH WOULD FAVOR MORE SNOW
OVER RAIN AND OF COURSE MORE ACCUMULATION). WE KEPT POPS IN THE
CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW...EVEN THOUGH SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES
HIGHER CHANCES THAN THAT TO OUR SOUTH.

PROJECT HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS (POSSIBLY
HIGHEST NORTH OF ALBANY WHERE THE CLOUDS WILL BE THE THINNEST). HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 30S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN...IF
PRECIPITATION TURNS OUT TO BE HEAVIER...THESE HIGHS WOULD HAVE TO BE
LOWERED SEVERAL DEGREES.

THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ON TUESDAY EVENING...LEAVING HIGH PRESSURE
TO BUILD BACK IN. THE SKY SHOULD CLEAR AND WITH LIGHT WIND
TEMPERATURES WILL TANK (ESPECIALLY IN ANY AREAS THAT PICK UP EVEN
FRESH COATING OF SNOW). LOWS WILL DIP BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S
ALBANY SOUTHWARD...15-20 FURTHER NORTH AND WEST.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY DECENT DAY (AT LEAST BY THIS SPRING
STANDARDS). BRIGHT SUNSHINE WILL BOLSTER TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 40S IN THE VALLEYS...MID TO UPPER 30S HIGHER TERRAIN.
THESE VALUES ARE STILL A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY REGARDING THE HANDLING OF FAST MOVING
PACIFIC SHORTWAVE ENERGY DURING THE FRI-SAT TIME PERIOD.

THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE DEAMPLIFYING AT THE START OF THE
EXTENDED ACROSS THE U.S...AS THE PERSISTENT POLAR VORTEX RELAXES AND
REORIENTS A BIT FURTHER N AND W ACROSS CANADA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
FAST MOVING PACIFIC SYSTEMS TO TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
U.S. RIDGING AHEAD OF ONE OF THESE DISTURBANCES SHOULD BRING A
PERIOD OF MILDER TEMPERATURES FOR THU-FRI...BEFORE TEMPS TREND BACK
TO BELOW NORMAL BY NEXT WEEKEND AS MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ONCE
AGAIN FALL ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

THU-SAT NT...A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL TRACK EAST FROM
THE WESTERN U.S. DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH A NORTHERN PIECE
TRACKING INTO CENTRAL CANADA...WHILE A SOUTHERN ONE TRACKS INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. FRONTAL SYSTEMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN
ONE SHOULD IMPACT OUR REGION THU...WITH A WARM FRONT
INITIALLY...THEN A COLD FRONT SOMETIME THU NT OR FRI. THIS SHOULD
BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION THU AFTN-EARLY FRI. THEN...AS
THE SOUTHERN PIECE OF ENERGY TRACKS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
EVENTUALLY THE EASTERN U.S...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP
ALONG THE COLD FRONT...AND ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO LINGER/REDEVELOP
LATER FRI AND POSSIBLY INTO SAT. DEPENDING ON HOW THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY AND TIMING OF ASSOCIATED SFC BOUNDARIES TRACK FRI-
SAT...THERE COULD BE ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR P-TYPE ISSUES WITH ANY
LINGERING PRECIP FRIDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...SOME GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT ANY SOUTHERN PIECES OF ENERGY AND WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACK FURTHER SOUTH WITH LESS IMPACTS ON OUR REGION.
SO...AT THIS TIME...GENERALLY HAVE INDICATED ONLY CHC POPS FOR
THIS TIME PERIOD...MAINLY FOR RAIN SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH SOME SNOW
COULD OCCUR FRI NT INTO SAT MORNING DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING
AND TRACK OF SYSTEMS.

SUN...A RETURN TO BELOW...TO POTENTIALLY WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IS
QUITE POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF ANY PREVIOUS SYSTEM. IT SHOULD BE
GENERALLY DRY...ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS OF SNOW OR
RAIN DEPENDING ON INSTABILITY AND OVERALL PROGRESSION OF UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY.

TEMPERATURE WISE...HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND
50S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. HIGHS FRIDAY
GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH UPPER 40S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TEENS TO THE 20S. HIGHS SUNDAY IN
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 630 AM...THE INITIAL BAND OF SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT WAS ALREADY MOVING THROUGH THE TAF
SITES AND WILL LIKELY BE EAST OF THE REGION BY 12Z (THE START OF
THE TAF PERIOD). EVEN AFTER THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH...THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS (MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS LATER IN THE DAY...WILL
CONTINUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING
THE MID AFTERNOON PERIOD. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THERE WILL STILL
BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALSO AFFECTS
THE REGION.

ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A FEW WEATHER FEATURES AFFECTING THE REGION
DURING THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z TUESDAY...MOISTURE IS LIMITED
AND FORCING IS RELATIVELY WEAK...SO FOR THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF
TAF SITES HAVE GENERALLY FORECAST VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE
TAF PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION IS AT KGFL...WHERE A TEMPO GROUP FOR
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS DUE TO SNOW SHOWERS HAS BEEN FORECAST BETWEEN 12Z
AND 15Z. OTHERWISE...THE THREAT OF SHOWERS IS LOW AND TIMING
DIFFICULT...SO HAVE ONLY INDICATED VCSH DURING THE DAY AT THE
OTHER TAF SITES AND DURING OTHER TIMES OF THE TAFS.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AT 8 TO 12
KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS. AFTER THE WARM FRONT THE WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS WITH
GUSTS OF 18 TO 25 KTS DURING MID/LATE MONDAY MORNING. BY MID
AFTERNOON THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WESTERLY AFTER THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH WITH SPEEDS OF 12 TO 18 KTS AND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30
KTS. AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...THE SPEEDS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH...DROPPING TO 5 TO 10 KTS BY LATE TONIGHT...WITH SOME
GUSTS TO 15 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH TODAY...

A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION EARLY MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS
FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST. A COLD FRONT COULD BRING A FEW MORE
SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK
IN TONIGHT. ANOTHER CLIPPER TRACKING MAINLY SOUTH OF THE REGION
COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 55 PERCENT MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 70 AND 100 PERCENT TONIGHT
AND MONDAY NIGHT.

A SOUTH WIND AVERAGE 10 TO 20 MPH...THEN BECOME WEST TO
NORTHWEST BY WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH BY AFTERNOON. THE WIND WILL
DIMINISHING DOWN 5-15 MPH LATE MONDAY NIGHT...LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE SLOW ANY RISES.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...AND SOME AREAS MAY NOT SEE PRECIPITATION. SOME OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.

ANOTHER DISTURBANCE COULD BRING A LITTLE MORE RAIN OR SNOW TO MAINLY AREAS SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 90 TUESDAY. QPF AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT...UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH
WHICH SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR HSA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE SNOWPACK IN PLACE...
AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...KL/GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV




000
FXUS61 KALY 300856
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
456 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW MAINLY
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST. A COLD
FRONT COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER CLIPPER
TRACKING SOUTH OF THE REGION COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO
SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 430 AM EST...RADARS INDICATED SHOWERS WERE WORKING ACROSS OUR
WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA)...MAINLY WEST OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY. SOME OF THESE PROBABLY AREN/T REACHING THE GROUND AS THERE
WAS A LOT OF DRY AIR TO SATURATE IN THE COLUMN. WITH TIME...MOST OF
THESE SHOWERS WOULD PRODUCE A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH LIQUID
PRECIPITATION. IT IS COLD ENOUGH FOR THESE TO BE SNOW...EVEN THOUGH
TEMPERATURES WERE MAINLY ABOVE FREEZING IN THE VALLEY (LOWER TO MID
30S)...MID TO UPPER 20S HIGHER TERRAIN. AS THE SNOW SHOWERS
FALL...THEY MIGHT EVEN BRIEFLY BUMP TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN A COUPLE
OF DEGREES DUE TO EVAPORATIVE COOLING.

THIS FIRST BATCH IS ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION AND LOOK TO
EXIT OUR REGION DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE MORNING. THE LATEST
HRRR INDICATED NOT MUCH ACTIVITY BEHIND THIS BATCH.
HOWEVER...UPSTREAM A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION BY
AFTERNOON...AND THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE DESTABILIZING (INCREASING
COLD ALOFT). THEREFORE...WE FEEL PRETTY CONFIDENT ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS OF RAIN...GRAUPEL WILL DEVELOP. THIS IS HINTED BY
THE HRRR. AS IT TURNS COLDER ALOFT...ANY OF THESE SHOWERS COULD TURN
BACK TO SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS ELEVATIONS HIGHER THAN 2500 FEET LATER
THIS AFTERNOON.

SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THIS MORNING WILL LOCALIZED AND CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE AN INCH OR TWO COULD ACCUMULATE. NOTHING MORE
THAN A DUSTING TO AN INCH (IF THAT) IS EXPECTED IN ANY VALLEY
AREAS...MAINLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

THIS AFTERNOON...THERE SHOULD BE NO REAL ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS...EVEN OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TRICKY TO FORECAST. THEY WILL BE HIGHLY ON
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION COVERAGE. LESS PRECIPITATION AND MORE
BREAKS OF SUNSHINE COULD AND BRIEF GUSTY WSW WIND COULD PROPEL
TEMPERATURES PAST 50 IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT FOR THE FIRST TIME IN
92 DAYS. HOWEVER...WE LEAN WITH MORE CLOUDS AND ENOUGH SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO HOLD HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE UPPER 40S IN AND AROUND
THE CAPITAL REGION...BUT REACHING 50 OR A LITTLE HIGHER SOUTH OF THE
CAPITAL REGION...40-45 HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE WIND WILL BE BRISK OUT OF THE SOUTH THIS MORNING 10-20 MPH WITH
SOME HIGHER GUSTS...ESPECIALLY AT THE ONSET OF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
AS EVAPORATIVE COOLING COULD MIX A PRETTY STRONG WSW LOW LEVEL JET
TO THE SURFACE. AS THE COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH...THE WIND WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST AT SIMILAR SPEEDS. THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR
GUSTS 35-45 MPH...JUST BELOW WIND ADVISORY THRESHOLDS...BUT WE WILL
MONITOR.   THE QPF WILL LIGHT THIS SYSTEM...WELL UNDER A QUARTER OF
AN INCH...AND IN SOME PLACES FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD...PERHAPS NOT
EVEN MEASURING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN RESULTING IN A CLEARING
SKY AND A GRADUAL DIMINISHING WIND (AFTER SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE
EVENING)...BUT PROBABLY NOT GO COMPLETELY CALM. NIGHT TIME LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S...EXCEPT UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

A TRAILING PIECE OF NORTHERN STREAM UPPER ENERGY TRACKS SOUTHEAST
OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND TRACKS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TUESDAY...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A PRECIPITATION
SHIELD...POSSIBLY EXTENDING JUST SOUTH OF I-90. CLOUDS WILL EXTEND
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA. WHILE ON PAPER IT LOOKS COLD
ENOUGH FOR THIS PRECIPITATION TO BE SNOW...THAT FACT THAT IT IS
NEARLY APRIL...THE AIR MASS WILL NOT BE ALL THAT COLD...AND MUCH OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL DURING THE DAY ALLOWING SOLAR INFLUENCE
THROUGH THE CLOUDS...PTYPE WILL BE A CHALLENGE. IF THE PRECIPITATION
IS LIGHT ENOUGH (WHICH WE BELIEVE WILL BE THE CASE) WE WOULD
PROBABLY BE LOOKING AT SNOW AT ELEVATIONS HIGHER THAN 1500
FEET...AND RAIN OR RAIN SNOW MIX IN THE VALLEY WITH VERY LITTLE IF
ANY ACCUMULATION. EVEN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACCUMULATIONS (IF
ANY) LOOK LIGHT BUT AGAIN WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR LATER TRENDS TO
SEE IF THERE SIGNALS RAMPING UP THE QPF (WHICH WOULD FAVOR MORE SNOW
OVER RAIN AND OF COURSE MORE ACCUMULATION). WE KEPT POPS IN THE
CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW...EVEN THOUGH SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES
HIGHER CHANCES THAN THAT TO OUR SOUTH.

PROJECT HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS (POSSIBLY
HIGHEST NORTH OF ALBANY WHERE THE CLOUDS WILL BE THE THINNEST). HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 30S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN...IF
PRECIPITATION TURNS OUT TO BE HEAVIER...THESE HIGHS WOULD HAVE TO BE
LOWERED SEVERAL DEGREES.

THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ON TUESDAY EVENING...LEAVING HIGH PRESSURE
TO BUILD BACK IN. THE SKY SHOULD CLEAR AND WITH LIGHT WIND
TEMPERATURES WILL TANK (ESPECIALLY IN ANY AREAS THAT PICK UP EVEN
FRESH COATING OF SNOW). LOWS WILL DIP BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S
ALBANY SOUTHWARD...15-20 FURTHER NORTH AND WEST.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY DECENT DAY (AT LEAST BY THIS SPRING
STANDARDS). BRIGHT SUNSHINE WILL BOLSTER TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 40S IN THE VALLEYS...MID TO UPPER 30S HIGHER TERRAIN.
THESE VALUES ARE STILL A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY REGARDING THE HANDLING OF FAST MOVING
PACIFIC SHORTWAVE ENERGY DURING THE FRI-SAT TIME PERIOD.

THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE DEAMPLIFYING AT THE START OF THE
EXTENDED ACROSS THE U.S...AS THE PERSISTENT POLAR VORTEX RELAXES AND
REORIENTS A BIT FURTHER N AND W ACROSS CANADA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
FAST MOVING PACIFIC SYSTEMS TO TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
U.S. RIDGING AHEAD OF ONE OF THESE DISTURBANCES SHOULD BRING A
PERIOD OF MILDER TEMPERATURES FOR THU-FRI...BEFORE TEMPS TREND BACK
TO BELOW NORMAL BY NEXT WEEKEND AS MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ONCE
AGAIN FALL ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

THU-SAT NT...A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL TRACK EAST FROM
THE WESTERN U.S. DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH A NORTHERN PIECE
TRACKING INTO CENTRAL CANADA...WHILE A SOUTHERN ONE TRACKS INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. FRONTAL SYSTEMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN
ONE SHOULD IMPACT OUR REGION THU...WITH A WARM FRONT
INITIALLY...THEN A COLD FRONT SOMETIME THU NT OR FRI. THIS SHOULD
BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION THU AFTN-EARLY FRI. THEN...AS
THE SOUTHERN PIECE OF ENERGY TRACKS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
EVENTUALLY THE EASTERN U.S...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP
ALONG THE COLD FRONT...AND ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO LINGER/REDEVELOP
LATER FRI AND POSSIBLY INTO SAT. DEPENDING ON HOW THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY AND TIMING OF ASSOCIATED SFC BOUNDARIES TRACK FRI-
SAT...THERE COULD BE ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR P-TYPE ISSUES WITH ANY
LINGERING PRECIP FRIDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...SOME GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT ANY SOUTHERN PIECES OF ENERGY AND WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACK FURTHER SOUTH WITH LESS IMPACTS ON OUR REGION.
SO...AT THIS TIME...GENERALLY HAVE INDICATED ONLY CHC POPS FOR
THIS TIME PERIOD...MAINLY FOR RAIN SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH SOME SNOW
COULD OCCUR FRI NT INTO SAT MORNING DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING
AND TRACK OF SYSTEMS.

SUN...A RETURN TO BELOW...TO POTENTIALLY WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IS
QUITE POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF ANY PREVIOUS SYSTEM. IT SHOULD BE
GENERALLY DRY...ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS OF SNOW OR
RAIN DEPENDING ON INSTABILITY AND OVERALL PROGRESSION OF UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY.

TEMPERATURE WISE...HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND
50S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. HIGHS FRIDAY
GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH UPPER 40S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TEENS TO THE 20S. HIGHS SUNDAY IN
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM...HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WERE ALREADY INCREASING ACROSS
THE REGION...AND WILL THICKEN AND LOWER OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT.

AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES...LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 09Z AND 13Z. ONCE THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH...THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS (MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS LATER IN THE DAY...WILL
CONTINUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING
THE MID AFTERNOON PERIOD. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THERE WILL STILL
BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALSO AFFECTS
THE REGION.

ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A FEW WEATHER FEATURES AFFECTING THE REGION
DURING THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 06Z TUESDAY...MOISTURE IS LIMITED
AND FORCING IS RELATIVELY WEAK...SO FOR THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF
TAF SITES HAVE GENERALLY FORECAST VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE
TAF PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION IS AT KGFL/KPSF...WHERE A TEMPO GROUP
FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS DUE TO SNOW SHOWERS HAS BEEN FORECAST BETWEEN
09Z AND 13Z. OTHERWISE...THE THREAT OF SHOWERS IS LOW AND TIMING
DIFFICULT...SO HAVE ONLY INDICATED VCSH AT THE OTHER TAF SITES
AND DURING OTHER TIMES OF THE TAFS.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE INCREASING AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT TO 5 TO
10 KTS...WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 15 KTS AT KALB. AFTER THE WARM
FRONT THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO 8 TO
12 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 25 KTS DURING MID/LATE MONDAY MORNING.
BY MID AFTERNOON THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WESTERLY AFTER THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH SPEEDS OF 12 TO 18 KTS AND GUSTS OF 20
TO 30 KTS. AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...THE SPEEDS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
     GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH TODAY...

A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION EARLY MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS
FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST. A COLD FRONT COULD BRING A FEW MORE
SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK
IN TONIGHT. ANOTHER CLIPPER TRACKING MAINLY SOUTH OF THE REGION
COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 55 PERCENT MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 70 AND 100 PERCENT TONIGHT
AND MONDAY NIGHT.

A SOUTH WIND AVERAGE 10 TO 20 MPH...THEN BECOME WEST TO
NORTHWEST BY WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH BY AFTERNOON. THE WIND WILL
DIMINISHING DOWN 5-15 MPH LATE MONDAY NIGHT...LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE SLOW ANY RISES.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...AND SOME AREAS MAY NOT SEE PRECIPITATION. SOME OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.

ANOTHER DISTURBANCE COULD BRING A LITTLE MORE RAIN OR SNOW TO MAINLY AREAS SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 90 TUESDAY. QPF AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT...UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH
WHICH SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR HSA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE SNOWPACK IN PLACE...
AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM/KSL
AVIATION...HWJIV/GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV




000
FXUS61 KALY 300856
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
456 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW MAINLY
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST. A COLD
FRONT COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER CLIPPER
TRACKING SOUTH OF THE REGION COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO
SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 430 AM EST...RADARS INDICATED SHOWERS WERE WORKING ACROSS OUR
WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA)...MAINLY WEST OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY. SOME OF THESE PROBABLY AREN/T REACHING THE GROUND AS THERE
WAS A LOT OF DRY AIR TO SATURATE IN THE COLUMN. WITH TIME...MOST OF
THESE SHOWERS WOULD PRODUCE A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH LIQUID
PRECIPITATION. IT IS COLD ENOUGH FOR THESE TO BE SNOW...EVEN THOUGH
TEMPERATURES WERE MAINLY ABOVE FREEZING IN THE VALLEY (LOWER TO MID
30S)...MID TO UPPER 20S HIGHER TERRAIN. AS THE SNOW SHOWERS
FALL...THEY MIGHT EVEN BRIEFLY BUMP TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN A COUPLE
OF DEGREES DUE TO EVAPORATIVE COOLING.

THIS FIRST BATCH IS ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION AND LOOK TO
EXIT OUR REGION DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE MORNING. THE LATEST
HRRR INDICATED NOT MUCH ACTIVITY BEHIND THIS BATCH.
HOWEVER...UPSTREAM A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION BY
AFTERNOON...AND THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE DESTABILIZING (INCREASING
COLD ALOFT). THEREFORE...WE FEEL PRETTY CONFIDENT ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS OF RAIN...GRAUPEL WILL DEVELOP. THIS IS HINTED BY
THE HRRR. AS IT TURNS COLDER ALOFT...ANY OF THESE SHOWERS COULD TURN
BACK TO SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS ELEVATIONS HIGHER THAN 2500 FEET LATER
THIS AFTERNOON.

SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THIS MORNING WILL LOCALIZED AND CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE AN INCH OR TWO COULD ACCUMULATE. NOTHING MORE
THAN A DUSTING TO AN INCH (IF THAT) IS EXPECTED IN ANY VALLEY
AREAS...MAINLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

THIS AFTERNOON...THERE SHOULD BE NO REAL ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS...EVEN OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TRICKY TO FORECAST. THEY WILL BE HIGHLY ON
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION COVERAGE. LESS PRECIPITATION AND MORE
BREAKS OF SUNSHINE COULD AND BRIEF GUSTY WSW WIND COULD PROPEL
TEMPERATURES PAST 50 IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT FOR THE FIRST TIME IN
92 DAYS. HOWEVER...WE LEAN WITH MORE CLOUDS AND ENOUGH SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO HOLD HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE UPPER 40S IN AND AROUND
THE CAPITAL REGION...BUT REACHING 50 OR A LITTLE HIGHER SOUTH OF THE
CAPITAL REGION...40-45 HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE WIND WILL BE BRISK OUT OF THE SOUTH THIS MORNING 10-20 MPH WITH
SOME HIGHER GUSTS...ESPECIALLY AT THE ONSET OF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
AS EVAPORATIVE COOLING COULD MIX A PRETTY STRONG WSW LOW LEVEL JET
TO THE SURFACE. AS THE COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH...THE WIND WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST AT SIMILAR SPEEDS. THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR
GUSTS 35-45 MPH...JUST BELOW WIND ADVISORY THRESHOLDS...BUT WE WILL
MONITOR.   THE QPF WILL LIGHT THIS SYSTEM...WELL UNDER A QUARTER OF
AN INCH...AND IN SOME PLACES FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD...PERHAPS NOT
EVEN MEASURING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN RESULTING IN A CLEARING
SKY AND A GRADUAL DIMINISHING WIND (AFTER SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE
EVENING)...BUT PROBABLY NOT GO COMPLETELY CALM. NIGHT TIME LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S...EXCEPT UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

A TRAILING PIECE OF NORTHERN STREAM UPPER ENERGY TRACKS SOUTHEAST
OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND TRACKS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TUESDAY...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A PRECIPITATION
SHIELD...POSSIBLY EXTENDING JUST SOUTH OF I-90. CLOUDS WILL EXTEND
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA. WHILE ON PAPER IT LOOKS COLD
ENOUGH FOR THIS PRECIPITATION TO BE SNOW...THAT FACT THAT IT IS
NEARLY APRIL...THE AIR MASS WILL NOT BE ALL THAT COLD...AND MUCH OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL DURING THE DAY ALLOWING SOLAR INFLUENCE
THROUGH THE CLOUDS...PTYPE WILL BE A CHALLENGE. IF THE PRECIPITATION
IS LIGHT ENOUGH (WHICH WE BELIEVE WILL BE THE CASE) WE WOULD
PROBABLY BE LOOKING AT SNOW AT ELEVATIONS HIGHER THAN 1500
FEET...AND RAIN OR RAIN SNOW MIX IN THE VALLEY WITH VERY LITTLE IF
ANY ACCUMULATION. EVEN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACCUMULATIONS (IF
ANY) LOOK LIGHT BUT AGAIN WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR LATER TRENDS TO
SEE IF THERE SIGNALS RAMPING UP THE QPF (WHICH WOULD FAVOR MORE SNOW
OVER RAIN AND OF COURSE MORE ACCUMULATION). WE KEPT POPS IN THE
CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW...EVEN THOUGH SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES
HIGHER CHANCES THAN THAT TO OUR SOUTH.

PROJECT HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS (POSSIBLY
HIGHEST NORTH OF ALBANY WHERE THE CLOUDS WILL BE THE THINNEST). HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 30S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN...IF
PRECIPITATION TURNS OUT TO BE HEAVIER...THESE HIGHS WOULD HAVE TO BE
LOWERED SEVERAL DEGREES.

THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ON TUESDAY EVENING...LEAVING HIGH PRESSURE
TO BUILD BACK IN. THE SKY SHOULD CLEAR AND WITH LIGHT WIND
TEMPERATURES WILL TANK (ESPECIALLY IN ANY AREAS THAT PICK UP EVEN
FRESH COATING OF SNOW). LOWS WILL DIP BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S
ALBANY SOUTHWARD...15-20 FURTHER NORTH AND WEST.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY DECENT DAY (AT LEAST BY THIS SPRING
STANDARDS). BRIGHT SUNSHINE WILL BOLSTER TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 40S IN THE VALLEYS...MID TO UPPER 30S HIGHER TERRAIN.
THESE VALUES ARE STILL A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY REGARDING THE HANDLING OF FAST MOVING
PACIFIC SHORTWAVE ENERGY DURING THE FRI-SAT TIME PERIOD.

THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE DEAMPLIFYING AT THE START OF THE
EXTENDED ACROSS THE U.S...AS THE PERSISTENT POLAR VORTEX RELAXES AND
REORIENTS A BIT FURTHER N AND W ACROSS CANADA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
FAST MOVING PACIFIC SYSTEMS TO TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
U.S. RIDGING AHEAD OF ONE OF THESE DISTURBANCES SHOULD BRING A
PERIOD OF MILDER TEMPERATURES FOR THU-FRI...BEFORE TEMPS TREND BACK
TO BELOW NORMAL BY NEXT WEEKEND AS MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ONCE
AGAIN FALL ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

THU-SAT NT...A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL TRACK EAST FROM
THE WESTERN U.S. DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH A NORTHERN PIECE
TRACKING INTO CENTRAL CANADA...WHILE A SOUTHERN ONE TRACKS INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. FRONTAL SYSTEMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN
ONE SHOULD IMPACT OUR REGION THU...WITH A WARM FRONT
INITIALLY...THEN A COLD FRONT SOMETIME THU NT OR FRI. THIS SHOULD
BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION THU AFTN-EARLY FRI. THEN...AS
THE SOUTHERN PIECE OF ENERGY TRACKS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
EVENTUALLY THE EASTERN U.S...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP
ALONG THE COLD FRONT...AND ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO LINGER/REDEVELOP
LATER FRI AND POSSIBLY INTO SAT. DEPENDING ON HOW THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY AND TIMING OF ASSOCIATED SFC BOUNDARIES TRACK FRI-
SAT...THERE COULD BE ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR P-TYPE ISSUES WITH ANY
LINGERING PRECIP FRIDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...SOME GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT ANY SOUTHERN PIECES OF ENERGY AND WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACK FURTHER SOUTH WITH LESS IMPACTS ON OUR REGION.
SO...AT THIS TIME...GENERALLY HAVE INDICATED ONLY CHC POPS FOR
THIS TIME PERIOD...MAINLY FOR RAIN SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH SOME SNOW
COULD OCCUR FRI NT INTO SAT MORNING DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING
AND TRACK OF SYSTEMS.

SUN...A RETURN TO BELOW...TO POTENTIALLY WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IS
QUITE POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF ANY PREVIOUS SYSTEM. IT SHOULD BE
GENERALLY DRY...ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS OF SNOW OR
RAIN DEPENDING ON INSTABILITY AND OVERALL PROGRESSION OF UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY.

TEMPERATURE WISE...HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND
50S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. HIGHS FRIDAY
GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH UPPER 40S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TEENS TO THE 20S. HIGHS SUNDAY IN
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM...HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WERE ALREADY INCREASING ACROSS
THE REGION...AND WILL THICKEN AND LOWER OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT.

AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES...LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 09Z AND 13Z. ONCE THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH...THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS (MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS LATER IN THE DAY...WILL
CONTINUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING
THE MID AFTERNOON PERIOD. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THERE WILL STILL
BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALSO AFFECTS
THE REGION.

ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A FEW WEATHER FEATURES AFFECTING THE REGION
DURING THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 06Z TUESDAY...MOISTURE IS LIMITED
AND FORCING IS RELATIVELY WEAK...SO FOR THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF
TAF SITES HAVE GENERALLY FORECAST VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE
TAF PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION IS AT KGFL/KPSF...WHERE A TEMPO GROUP
FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS DUE TO SNOW SHOWERS HAS BEEN FORECAST BETWEEN
09Z AND 13Z. OTHERWISE...THE THREAT OF SHOWERS IS LOW AND TIMING
DIFFICULT...SO HAVE ONLY INDICATED VCSH AT THE OTHER TAF SITES
AND DURING OTHER TIMES OF THE TAFS.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE INCREASING AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT TO 5 TO
10 KTS...WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 15 KTS AT KALB. AFTER THE WARM
FRONT THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO 8 TO
12 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 25 KTS DURING MID/LATE MONDAY MORNING.
BY MID AFTERNOON THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WESTERLY AFTER THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH SPEEDS OF 12 TO 18 KTS AND GUSTS OF 20
TO 30 KTS. AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...THE SPEEDS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
     GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH TODAY...

A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION EARLY MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS
FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST. A COLD FRONT COULD BRING A FEW MORE
SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK
IN TONIGHT. ANOTHER CLIPPER TRACKING MAINLY SOUTH OF THE REGION
COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 55 PERCENT MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 70 AND 100 PERCENT TONIGHT
AND MONDAY NIGHT.

A SOUTH WIND AVERAGE 10 TO 20 MPH...THEN BECOME WEST TO
NORTHWEST BY WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH BY AFTERNOON. THE WIND WILL
DIMINISHING DOWN 5-15 MPH LATE MONDAY NIGHT...LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE SLOW ANY RISES.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...AND SOME AREAS MAY NOT SEE PRECIPITATION. SOME OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.

ANOTHER DISTURBANCE COULD BRING A LITTLE MORE RAIN OR SNOW TO MAINLY AREAS SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 90 TUESDAY. QPF AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT...UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH
WHICH SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR HSA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE SNOWPACK IN PLACE...
AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM/KSL
AVIATION...HWJIV/GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV



000
FXUS61 KALY 300856
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
456 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW MAINLY
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST. A COLD
FRONT COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER CLIPPER
TRACKING SOUTH OF THE REGION COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO
SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 430 AM EST...RADARS INDICATED SHOWERS WERE WORKING ACROSS OUR
WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA)...MAINLY WEST OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY. SOME OF THESE PROBABLY AREN/T REACHING THE GROUND AS THERE
WAS A LOT OF DRY AIR TO SATURATE IN THE COLUMN. WITH TIME...MOST OF
THESE SHOWERS WOULD PRODUCE A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH LIQUID
PRECIPITATION. IT IS COLD ENOUGH FOR THESE TO BE SNOW...EVEN THOUGH
TEMPERATURES WERE MAINLY ABOVE FREEZING IN THE VALLEY (LOWER TO MID
30S)...MID TO UPPER 20S HIGHER TERRAIN. AS THE SNOW SHOWERS
FALL...THEY MIGHT EVEN BRIEFLY BUMP TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN A COUPLE
OF DEGREES DUE TO EVAPORATIVE COOLING.

THIS FIRST BATCH IS ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION AND LOOK TO
EXIT OUR REGION DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE MORNING. THE LATEST
HRRR INDICATED NOT MUCH ACTIVITY BEHIND THIS BATCH.
HOWEVER...UPSTREAM A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION BY
AFTERNOON...AND THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE DESTABILIZING (INCREASING
COLD ALOFT). THEREFORE...WE FEEL PRETTY CONFIDENT ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS OF RAIN...GRAUPEL WILL DEVELOP. THIS IS HINTED BY
THE HRRR. AS IT TURNS COLDER ALOFT...ANY OF THESE SHOWERS COULD TURN
BACK TO SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS ELEVATIONS HIGHER THAN 2500 FEET LATER
THIS AFTERNOON.

SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THIS MORNING WILL LOCALIZED AND CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE AN INCH OR TWO COULD ACCUMULATE. NOTHING MORE
THAN A DUSTING TO AN INCH (IF THAT) IS EXPECTED IN ANY VALLEY
AREAS...MAINLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

THIS AFTERNOON...THERE SHOULD BE NO REAL ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS...EVEN OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TRICKY TO FORECAST. THEY WILL BE HIGHLY ON
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION COVERAGE. LESS PRECIPITATION AND MORE
BREAKS OF SUNSHINE COULD AND BRIEF GUSTY WSW WIND COULD PROPEL
TEMPERATURES PAST 50 IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT FOR THE FIRST TIME IN
92 DAYS. HOWEVER...WE LEAN WITH MORE CLOUDS AND ENOUGH SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO HOLD HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE UPPER 40S IN AND AROUND
THE CAPITAL REGION...BUT REACHING 50 OR A LITTLE HIGHER SOUTH OF THE
CAPITAL REGION...40-45 HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE WIND WILL BE BRISK OUT OF THE SOUTH THIS MORNING 10-20 MPH WITH
SOME HIGHER GUSTS...ESPECIALLY AT THE ONSET OF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
AS EVAPORATIVE COOLING COULD MIX A PRETTY STRONG WSW LOW LEVEL JET
TO THE SURFACE. AS THE COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH...THE WIND WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST AT SIMILAR SPEEDS. THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR
GUSTS 35-45 MPH...JUST BELOW WIND ADVISORY THRESHOLDS...BUT WE WILL
MONITOR.   THE QPF WILL LIGHT THIS SYSTEM...WELL UNDER A QUARTER OF
AN INCH...AND IN SOME PLACES FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD...PERHAPS NOT
EVEN MEASURING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN RESULTING IN A CLEARING
SKY AND A GRADUAL DIMINISHING WIND (AFTER SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE
EVENING)...BUT PROBABLY NOT GO COMPLETELY CALM. NIGHT TIME LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S...EXCEPT UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

A TRAILING PIECE OF NORTHERN STREAM UPPER ENERGY TRACKS SOUTHEAST
OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND TRACKS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TUESDAY...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A PRECIPITATION
SHIELD...POSSIBLY EXTENDING JUST SOUTH OF I-90. CLOUDS WILL EXTEND
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA. WHILE ON PAPER IT LOOKS COLD
ENOUGH FOR THIS PRECIPITATION TO BE SNOW...THAT FACT THAT IT IS
NEARLY APRIL...THE AIR MASS WILL NOT BE ALL THAT COLD...AND MUCH OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL DURING THE DAY ALLOWING SOLAR INFLUENCE
THROUGH THE CLOUDS...PTYPE WILL BE A CHALLENGE. IF THE PRECIPITATION
IS LIGHT ENOUGH (WHICH WE BELIEVE WILL BE THE CASE) WE WOULD
PROBABLY BE LOOKING AT SNOW AT ELEVATIONS HIGHER THAN 1500
FEET...AND RAIN OR RAIN SNOW MIX IN THE VALLEY WITH VERY LITTLE IF
ANY ACCUMULATION. EVEN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACCUMULATIONS (IF
ANY) LOOK LIGHT BUT AGAIN WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR LATER TRENDS TO
SEE IF THERE SIGNALS RAMPING UP THE QPF (WHICH WOULD FAVOR MORE SNOW
OVER RAIN AND OF COURSE MORE ACCUMULATION). WE KEPT POPS IN THE
CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW...EVEN THOUGH SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES
HIGHER CHANCES THAN THAT TO OUR SOUTH.

PROJECT HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS (POSSIBLY
HIGHEST NORTH OF ALBANY WHERE THE CLOUDS WILL BE THE THINNEST). HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 30S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN...IF
PRECIPITATION TURNS OUT TO BE HEAVIER...THESE HIGHS WOULD HAVE TO BE
LOWERED SEVERAL DEGREES.

THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ON TUESDAY EVENING...LEAVING HIGH PRESSURE
TO BUILD BACK IN. THE SKY SHOULD CLEAR AND WITH LIGHT WIND
TEMPERATURES WILL TANK (ESPECIALLY IN ANY AREAS THAT PICK UP EVEN
FRESH COATING OF SNOW). LOWS WILL DIP BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S
ALBANY SOUTHWARD...15-20 FURTHER NORTH AND WEST.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY DECENT DAY (AT LEAST BY THIS SPRING
STANDARDS). BRIGHT SUNSHINE WILL BOLSTER TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 40S IN THE VALLEYS...MID TO UPPER 30S HIGHER TERRAIN.
THESE VALUES ARE STILL A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY REGARDING THE HANDLING OF FAST MOVING
PACIFIC SHORTWAVE ENERGY DURING THE FRI-SAT TIME PERIOD.

THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE DEAMPLIFYING AT THE START OF THE
EXTENDED ACROSS THE U.S...AS THE PERSISTENT POLAR VORTEX RELAXES AND
REORIENTS A BIT FURTHER N AND W ACROSS CANADA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
FAST MOVING PACIFIC SYSTEMS TO TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
U.S. RIDGING AHEAD OF ONE OF THESE DISTURBANCES SHOULD BRING A
PERIOD OF MILDER TEMPERATURES FOR THU-FRI...BEFORE TEMPS TREND BACK
TO BELOW NORMAL BY NEXT WEEKEND AS MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ONCE
AGAIN FALL ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

THU-SAT NT...A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL TRACK EAST FROM
THE WESTERN U.S. DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH A NORTHERN PIECE
TRACKING INTO CENTRAL CANADA...WHILE A SOUTHERN ONE TRACKS INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. FRONTAL SYSTEMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN
ONE SHOULD IMPACT OUR REGION THU...WITH A WARM FRONT
INITIALLY...THEN A COLD FRONT SOMETIME THU NT OR FRI. THIS SHOULD
BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION THU AFTN-EARLY FRI. THEN...AS
THE SOUTHERN PIECE OF ENERGY TRACKS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
EVENTUALLY THE EASTERN U.S...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP
ALONG THE COLD FRONT...AND ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO LINGER/REDEVELOP
LATER FRI AND POSSIBLY INTO SAT. DEPENDING ON HOW THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY AND TIMING OF ASSOCIATED SFC BOUNDARIES TRACK FRI-
SAT...THERE COULD BE ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR P-TYPE ISSUES WITH ANY
LINGERING PRECIP FRIDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...SOME GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT ANY SOUTHERN PIECES OF ENERGY AND WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACK FURTHER SOUTH WITH LESS IMPACTS ON OUR REGION.
SO...AT THIS TIME...GENERALLY HAVE INDICATED ONLY CHC POPS FOR
THIS TIME PERIOD...MAINLY FOR RAIN SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH SOME SNOW
COULD OCCUR FRI NT INTO SAT MORNING DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING
AND TRACK OF SYSTEMS.

SUN...A RETURN TO BELOW...TO POTENTIALLY WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IS
QUITE POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF ANY PREVIOUS SYSTEM. IT SHOULD BE
GENERALLY DRY...ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS OF SNOW OR
RAIN DEPENDING ON INSTABILITY AND OVERALL PROGRESSION OF UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY.

TEMPERATURE WISE...HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND
50S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. HIGHS FRIDAY
GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH UPPER 40S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TEENS TO THE 20S. HIGHS SUNDAY IN
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM...HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WERE ALREADY INCREASING ACROSS
THE REGION...AND WILL THICKEN AND LOWER OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT.

AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES...LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 09Z AND 13Z. ONCE THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH...THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS (MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS LATER IN THE DAY...WILL
CONTINUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING
THE MID AFTERNOON PERIOD. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THERE WILL STILL
BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALSO AFFECTS
THE REGION.

ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A FEW WEATHER FEATURES AFFECTING THE REGION
DURING THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 06Z TUESDAY...MOISTURE IS LIMITED
AND FORCING IS RELATIVELY WEAK...SO FOR THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF
TAF SITES HAVE GENERALLY FORECAST VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE
TAF PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION IS AT KGFL/KPSF...WHERE A TEMPO GROUP
FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS DUE TO SNOW SHOWERS HAS BEEN FORECAST BETWEEN
09Z AND 13Z. OTHERWISE...THE THREAT OF SHOWERS IS LOW AND TIMING
DIFFICULT...SO HAVE ONLY INDICATED VCSH AT THE OTHER TAF SITES
AND DURING OTHER TIMES OF THE TAFS.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE INCREASING AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT TO 5 TO
10 KTS...WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 15 KTS AT KALB. AFTER THE WARM
FRONT THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO 8 TO
12 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 25 KTS DURING MID/LATE MONDAY MORNING.
BY MID AFTERNOON THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WESTERLY AFTER THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH SPEEDS OF 12 TO 18 KTS AND GUSTS OF 20
TO 30 KTS. AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...THE SPEEDS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
     GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH TODAY...

A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION EARLY MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS
FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST. A COLD FRONT COULD BRING A FEW MORE
SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK
IN TONIGHT. ANOTHER CLIPPER TRACKING MAINLY SOUTH OF THE REGION
COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 55 PERCENT MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 70 AND 100 PERCENT TONIGHT
AND MONDAY NIGHT.

A SOUTH WIND AVERAGE 10 TO 20 MPH...THEN BECOME WEST TO
NORTHWEST BY WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH BY AFTERNOON. THE WIND WILL
DIMINISHING DOWN 5-15 MPH LATE MONDAY NIGHT...LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE SLOW ANY RISES.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...AND SOME AREAS MAY NOT SEE PRECIPITATION. SOME OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.

ANOTHER DISTURBANCE COULD BRING A LITTLE MORE RAIN OR SNOW TO MAINLY AREAS SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 90 TUESDAY. QPF AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT...UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH
WHICH SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR HSA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE SNOWPACK IN PLACE...
AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM/KSL
AVIATION...HWJIV/GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV



000
FXUS61 KOKX 300855
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
455 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS LATE TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A QUICK MOVING LOW
ON TUE. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THEN...A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE AREA LATE
IN THE WEEK...INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MID LVL WAA AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT PRODUCING A BATCH OF RADAR
RETURNS ACROSS UPSTATE NY INTO ERN PA THAT WILL TRAVERSE THE CWA
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. 00Z KOKX SOUNDING WAS DRY WITH
ONLY 0.12 PW. LLVL MOISTURE CONFINED TO ERN LI AND CT WHERE FLOW
OFF THE OCEAN HAS PROVIDED SOME MOISTENING. ELSEWHERE...TD/S WERE
STILL IN THE TEENS. AS A RESULT...PCPN COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE
SCT AND LGT. THE COLUMN APPEARS COLD ENOUGH BASED ON THE 00Z
MODELS TO ALLOW FOR SNOW SHWRS POSSIBLE MIXED WITH RAIN THRU
12Z...THEN TRANSITIONING TO MAINLY RAIN SHWRS THRU THE MRNG HRS AS
BOTH THE BL AND MID LVLS WARM. PCPN CHCS MAINLY TIL 16Z...THEN
THEY DROP QUICKLY.

THE CDFNT OVER OH AT 7Z REACHES ORANGE COUNTY PER THE 12Z NAM
RIGHT ABOUT 18Z. IT THEN SWEEPS ACROSS THE CWA AND CLEARS THE AREA
BY 00Z. ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE COULD PRODUCE A FEW HRS OF PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES BEFORE DARK. MOSTLY CLR SKIES OVERNIGHT BUT THE DATA
SUGGESTS WIND WILL KEEPS THINGS SLIGHTLY STIRRED UP...THEREBY
KEEPING TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT. AS A RESULT...LOWS CLOSE TO
GUIDANCE WERE USED WITH MINS ABOUT 5-7 DEGREES BLW CLIMO. IF WINDS
DECOUPLE...AT LEAST 5 DEGREES WILL NEED TO BE CHOPPED OFF THE FCST
ACROSS THE OUTLYING AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
SYS CURRENTLY OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL RACE TOWARDS THE
AREA WITH THE SFC LOW REACHING THE NYC LONGITUDE APPROXIMATELY 00Z
WED. THE 00Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF ARE ALL IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SPEED...BUT THE MODELS DIFFER WRT THE EXACT N-S TRACK. THE
ECMWF WAS THE FURTHEST S...WITH THE NAM AND GFS CLUSTERED CLOSELY
WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLES ACROSS CNTRL NJ. THE SREF MEAN WAS SLIGHLY
FURTHER N. POPS FOR INCREASED TO JUST BLW LIKELY BY LATE AFTN.
THIS TRACK COMBINED WITH THE THERMAL PROFILES ALOFT WOULD SUPPORT
A COLD ENOUGH COLUMN ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA FOR SNOW. WITH THE
BL INITIALLY WARM...LGT RAIN COULD MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO SNOW AS
STEADIER/HEAVIER PCPN MOVES IN. SRN AREAS...PARTICULARLY FROM WRN
NJ ZONES THRU THE CITY AND ONTO LI...TEMPS ALOFT MAY WARM FOR A
CHANGE BACK TO RAIN...OR IT MAY EVEN REMAIN ALL RAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. LATEST 00Z
FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATING THAT ANY RAIN OR SNOW...WILL CHANGE TO
ALL SNOW SHORTLY AFTER 00Z ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AS
COLD AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. QPF TOTALS ARE GENERALLY ON THE LOW
END WITH LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. ANY PRECIPITATION WILL
TAPER OFF LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY THEN MOVES OFFSHORE
THURSDAY...WITH RETURN FLOW AND MOIST AIR QUICKLY SPREADING NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
40S.

NEXT LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE LOCAL AREA LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...WITH RAIN CHANCES CONTINUING STRAIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S AND LOWS IN
THE LOW TO MID 40S. TEMPERATURES FALL BACK TO NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH EASTERN CANADA WILL BRING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON...17Z TO 22Z.

VFR...EXCEPT WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW WITH LOCAL
MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES...11Z TO 18Z...WEST TO EAST.
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOSTLY SNOW. LOW CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIPITATION
WILL OCCUR AT ANY PARTICULAR TERMINAL AND WILL NOT LAST MOST OF THE
TIME IN THE TEMPO GROUP.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 10 KT...BECOMING WEST TO
NORTHWEST...280 TO 300 TRUE...WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.
OCCASIONAL GUSTS WITH THE SOUTHERLY WIND THIS MORNING WILL BECOME
MORE FREQUENT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. HIGHEST GUSTS 20
TO 25 KT...MOST GUSTS AROUND 20 KT. GUSTS END THIS EVENING...00Z TO
03Z.

          NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION...LIKELY WILL
BE ALL RAIN. OCCASIONAL GUSTS WITH THE SOUTHERLY WIND. HIGHER
CONFIDENCE WITH GUSTS WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT....AROUND
18Z. WIND 250 TO 270 TRUE WITH HIGHEST GUSTS AROUND 25 KT.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION...MAY BE ALL
RAIN...OR BRIEF RAIN SNOW MIX. NO ACCUMULATION. OCCASIONAL GUSTS
WITH THE SOUTHERLY WIND. HIGHER CONFIDENCE WITH GUSTS WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT....AROUND 18Z. WIND 250 TO 270 TRUE WITH
HIGHEST GUSTS AROUND 25 KT.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION
OCCURRING...HIGHER CONFIDENCE WILL BE ALL LIGHT SNOW...AND MAY
BRIEFLY LOWER VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS TO MARGINAL VFR...5SM...2500
FT. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION. OCCASIONAL GUSTS WITH THE SOUTHERLY
WIND. HIGHER CONFIDENCE WITH GUSTS WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT....AROUND 18Z. WIND 270 TO 290 TRUE WITH HIGHEST GUSTS AROUND
25 KT.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION
OCCURRING...HIGHER CONFIDENCE WILL BE ALL LIGHT SNOW...AND MAY
BRIEFLY LOWER VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS TO MARGINAL VFR...5SM...2500
FT. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION. OCCASIONAL GUSTS WITH THE SOUTHERLY
WIND. HIGHER CONFIDENCE WITH GUSTS WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT....AROUND 18Z. WIND 270 TO 290 TRUE WITH HIGHEST GUSTS AROUND
22 KT.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION
OCCURRING...HIGHER CONFIDENCE WILL BE ALL LIGHT SNOW AND MAY BRIEFLY
LOWER VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS TO MARGINAL VFR...4SM...2000 FT.
LITTLE ACCUMULATION. OCCASIONAL GUSTS WITH THE SOUTHERLY WIND.
HIGHER CONFIDENCE WITH GUSTS WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT....AROUND 18Z. WIND 270 TO 290 TRUE WITH HIGHEST GUSTS AROUND
22 KT.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION
OCCURRING...AND MAY BE ALL RAIN. OCCASIONAL AND MINIMAL GUSTS IN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW...TO AROUND 19 KT. HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF GUSTS WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT....AROUND 20Z. WIND 270 TO 290 TRUE WITH
HIGHEST GUSTS AROUND 25 KT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.LATE MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...VFR. LATE AFTERNOON TUESDAY
MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN DEVELOPING -RA/SN.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLE MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN -SN.
.WEDNESDAY...VFR.
.THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR...WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN -RA LATE IN
IN THE DAY AND AT NIGHT. POSSIBLE LLWS.
.FRIDAY...MVFR IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SW WIND INCREASE TODAY TO SCA LVLS...THEN WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW
THIS AFTN INTO THE EVE AS A CDFNT TRACKS THRU. WINDS DIMINISH THIS
EVE...BUT SEAS REMAIN ABV SCA LVLS ON THE OCEAN. SCA COND MAY
DEVELOP AGAIN ON ALL WATERS TUE AS LOW PRES TRACKS QUICKLY INTO
THE REGION. SEAS MAY BRIEFLY TOUGH 5 FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT SUB-SMALL CRAFT LEVEL CONDITIONS THROUGH
THURSDAY AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS OVER THE REGION. WIND
GUSTS AND WAVES INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE OCEAN WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TRACE AMTS TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT ARE EXPECTED
TODAY. A FEW TENTHS OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT IS POSSIBLE TUE AND TUE
NGT. THEREAFTER...NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS
FORECAST.

RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW BANK FULL...BUT
INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT WILL CONTINUE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT INTO
THIS WEEKEND. ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY
OCCUR...COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING
IS UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS
SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-
     335-338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/JMC
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...BC/JMC
HYDROLOGY...BC/JMC




000
FXUS61 KOKX 300855
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
455 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS LATE TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A QUICK MOVING LOW
ON TUE. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THEN...A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE AREA LATE
IN THE WEEK...INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MID LVL WAA AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT PRODUCING A BATCH OF RADAR
RETURNS ACROSS UPSTATE NY INTO ERN PA THAT WILL TRAVERSE THE CWA
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. 00Z KOKX SOUNDING WAS DRY WITH
ONLY 0.12 PW. LLVL MOISTURE CONFINED TO ERN LI AND CT WHERE FLOW
OFF THE OCEAN HAS PROVIDED SOME MOISTENING. ELSEWHERE...TD/S WERE
STILL IN THE TEENS. AS A RESULT...PCPN COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE
SCT AND LGT. THE COLUMN APPEARS COLD ENOUGH BASED ON THE 00Z
MODELS TO ALLOW FOR SNOW SHWRS POSSIBLE MIXED WITH RAIN THRU
12Z...THEN TRANSITIONING TO MAINLY RAIN SHWRS THRU THE MRNG HRS AS
BOTH THE BL AND MID LVLS WARM. PCPN CHCS MAINLY TIL 16Z...THEN
THEY DROP QUICKLY.

THE CDFNT OVER OH AT 7Z REACHES ORANGE COUNTY PER THE 12Z NAM
RIGHT ABOUT 18Z. IT THEN SWEEPS ACROSS THE CWA AND CLEARS THE AREA
BY 00Z. ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE COULD PRODUCE A FEW HRS OF PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES BEFORE DARK. MOSTLY CLR SKIES OVERNIGHT BUT THE DATA
SUGGESTS WIND WILL KEEPS THINGS SLIGHTLY STIRRED UP...THEREBY
KEEPING TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT. AS A RESULT...LOWS CLOSE TO
GUIDANCE WERE USED WITH MINS ABOUT 5-7 DEGREES BLW CLIMO. IF WINDS
DECOUPLE...AT LEAST 5 DEGREES WILL NEED TO BE CHOPPED OFF THE FCST
ACROSS THE OUTLYING AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
SYS CURRENTLY OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL RACE TOWARDS THE
AREA WITH THE SFC LOW REACHING THE NYC LONGITUDE APPROXIMATELY 00Z
WED. THE 00Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF ARE ALL IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SPEED...BUT THE MODELS DIFFER WRT THE EXACT N-S TRACK. THE
ECMWF WAS THE FURTHEST S...WITH THE NAM AND GFS CLUSTERED CLOSELY
WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLES ACROSS CNTRL NJ. THE SREF MEAN WAS SLIGHLY
FURTHER N. POPS FOR INCREASED TO JUST BLW LIKELY BY LATE AFTN.
THIS TRACK COMBINED WITH THE THERMAL PROFILES ALOFT WOULD SUPPORT
A COLD ENOUGH COLUMN ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA FOR SNOW. WITH THE
BL INITIALLY WARM...LGT RAIN COULD MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO SNOW AS
STEADIER/HEAVIER PCPN MOVES IN. SRN AREAS...PARTICULARLY FROM WRN
NJ ZONES THRU THE CITY AND ONTO LI...TEMPS ALOFT MAY WARM FOR A
CHANGE BACK TO RAIN...OR IT MAY EVEN REMAIN ALL RAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. LATEST 00Z
FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATING THAT ANY RAIN OR SNOW...WILL CHANGE TO
ALL SNOW SHORTLY AFTER 00Z ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AS
COLD AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. QPF TOTALS ARE GENERALLY ON THE LOW
END WITH LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. ANY PRECIPITATION WILL
TAPER OFF LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY THEN MOVES OFFSHORE
THURSDAY...WITH RETURN FLOW AND MOIST AIR QUICKLY SPREADING NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
40S.

NEXT LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE LOCAL AREA LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...WITH RAIN CHANCES CONTINUING STRAIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S AND LOWS IN
THE LOW TO MID 40S. TEMPERATURES FALL BACK TO NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH EASTERN CANADA WILL BRING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON...17Z TO 22Z.

VFR...EXCEPT WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW WITH LOCAL
MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES...11Z TO 18Z...WEST TO EAST.
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOSTLY SNOW. LOW CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIPITATION
WILL OCCUR AT ANY PARTICULAR TERMINAL AND WILL NOT LAST MOST OF THE
TIME IN THE TEMPO GROUP.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 10 KT...BECOMING WEST TO
NORTHWEST...280 TO 300 TRUE...WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.
OCCASIONAL GUSTS WITH THE SOUTHERLY WIND THIS MORNING WILL BECOME
MORE FREQUENT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. HIGHEST GUSTS 20
TO 25 KT...MOST GUSTS AROUND 20 KT. GUSTS END THIS EVENING...00Z TO
03Z.

          NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION...LIKELY WILL
BE ALL RAIN. OCCASIONAL GUSTS WITH THE SOUTHERLY WIND. HIGHER
CONFIDENCE WITH GUSTS WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT....AROUND
18Z. WIND 250 TO 270 TRUE WITH HIGHEST GUSTS AROUND 25 KT.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION...MAY BE ALL
RAIN...OR BRIEF RAIN SNOW MIX. NO ACCUMULATION. OCCASIONAL GUSTS
WITH THE SOUTHERLY WIND. HIGHER CONFIDENCE WITH GUSTS WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT....AROUND 18Z. WIND 250 TO 270 TRUE WITH
HIGHEST GUSTS AROUND 25 KT.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION
OCCURRING...HIGHER CONFIDENCE WILL BE ALL LIGHT SNOW...AND MAY
BRIEFLY LOWER VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS TO MARGINAL VFR...5SM...2500
FT. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION. OCCASIONAL GUSTS WITH THE SOUTHERLY
WIND. HIGHER CONFIDENCE WITH GUSTS WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT....AROUND 18Z. WIND 270 TO 290 TRUE WITH HIGHEST GUSTS AROUND
25 KT.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION
OCCURRING...HIGHER CONFIDENCE WILL BE ALL LIGHT SNOW...AND MAY
BRIEFLY LOWER VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS TO MARGINAL VFR...5SM...2500
FT. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION. OCCASIONAL GUSTS WITH THE SOUTHERLY
WIND. HIGHER CONFIDENCE WITH GUSTS WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT....AROUND 18Z. WIND 270 TO 290 TRUE WITH HIGHEST GUSTS AROUND
22 KT.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION
OCCURRING...HIGHER CONFIDENCE WILL BE ALL LIGHT SNOW AND MAY BRIEFLY
LOWER VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS TO MARGINAL VFR...4SM...2000 FT.
LITTLE ACCUMULATION. OCCASIONAL GUSTS WITH THE SOUTHERLY WIND.
HIGHER CONFIDENCE WITH GUSTS WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT....AROUND 18Z. WIND 270 TO 290 TRUE WITH HIGHEST GUSTS AROUND
22 KT.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION
OCCURRING...AND MAY BE ALL RAIN. OCCASIONAL AND MINIMAL GUSTS IN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW...TO AROUND 19 KT. HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF GUSTS WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT....AROUND 20Z. WIND 270 TO 290 TRUE WITH
HIGHEST GUSTS AROUND 25 KT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.LATE MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...VFR. LATE AFTERNOON TUESDAY
MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN DEVELOPING -RA/SN.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLE MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN -SN.
.WEDNESDAY...VFR.
.THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR...WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN -RA LATE IN
IN THE DAY AND AT NIGHT. POSSIBLE LLWS.
.FRIDAY...MVFR IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SW WIND INCREASE TODAY TO SCA LVLS...THEN WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW
THIS AFTN INTO THE EVE AS A CDFNT TRACKS THRU. WINDS DIMINISH THIS
EVE...BUT SEAS REMAIN ABV SCA LVLS ON THE OCEAN. SCA COND MAY
DEVELOP AGAIN ON ALL WATERS TUE AS LOW PRES TRACKS QUICKLY INTO
THE REGION. SEAS MAY BRIEFLY TOUGH 5 FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT SUB-SMALL CRAFT LEVEL CONDITIONS THROUGH
THURSDAY AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS OVER THE REGION. WIND
GUSTS AND WAVES INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE OCEAN WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TRACE AMTS TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT ARE EXPECTED
TODAY. A FEW TENTHS OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT IS POSSIBLE TUE AND TUE
NGT. THEREAFTER...NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS
FORECAST.

RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW BANK FULL...BUT
INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT WILL CONTINUE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT INTO
THIS WEEKEND. ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY
OCCUR...COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING
IS UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS
SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-
     335-338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/JMC
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...BC/JMC
HYDROLOGY...BC/JMC



000
FXUS61 KALY 300843
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
440 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW MAINLY
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST. A COLD
FRONT COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER CLIPPER
TRACKING SOUTH OF THE REGION COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO
SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

AS OF 430 AM EST...RADARS INDICATED SHOWERS WERE WORKING ACROSS OUR
WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA)...MAINLY WEST OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY. SOME OF THESE PROBABLY AREN/T REACHING THE GROUND AS THERE
WAS A LOT OF DRY AIR TO SATURATE IN THE COLUMN. WITH TIME...MOST OF
THESE SHOWERS WOULD PRODUCE A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH LIQUID
PRECIPITATION. IT IS COLD ENOUGH FOR THESE TO BE SNOW...EVEN THOUGH
TEMPERATURES WERE MAINLY ABOVE FREEZING IN THE VALLEY (LOWER TO MID
30S)...MID TO UPPER 20S HIGHER TERRAIN. AS THE SNOW SHOWERS
FALL...THEY MIGHT EVEN BRIEFLY BUMP TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN A COUPLE
OF DEGREES DUE TO EVAPORATIVE COOLING.

THIS FIRST BATCH IS ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION AND LOOK TO
EXIT OUR REGION DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE MORNING. THE LATEST
HRRR INDICATED NOT MUCH ACTIVITY BEHIND THIS BATCH.
HOWEVER...UPSTREAM A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION BY
AFTERNOON...AND THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE DESTABILIZING (INCREASING
COLD ALOFT). THEREFORE...WE FEEL PRETTY CONFIDENT ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS OF RAIN...GRAUPEL WILL DEVELOP. THIS IS HINTED BY
THE HRRR. AS IT TURNS COLDER ALOFT...ANY OF THESE SHOWERS COULD TURN
BACK TO SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS ELEVATIONS HIGHER THAN 2500 FEET LATER
THIS AFTERNOON.

SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THIS MORNING WILL LOCALIZED AND CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE AN INCH OR TWO COULD ACCUMULATE. NOTHING MORE
THAN A DUSTING TO AN INCH (IF THAT) IS EXPECTED IN ANY VALLEY
AREAS...MAINLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

THIS AFTERNOON...THERE SHOULD BE NO REAL ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS...EVEN OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TRICKY TO FORECAST. THEY WILL BE HIGHLY ON
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION COVERAGE. LESS PRECIPITATION AND MORE
BREAKS OF SUNSHINE COULD AND BRIEF GUSTY WSW WIND COULD PROPEL
TEMPERATURES PAST 50 IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT FOR THE FIRST TIME IN
92 DAYS. HOWEVER...WE LEAN WITH MORE CLOUDS AND ENOUGH SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO HOLD HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE UPPER 40S IN AND AROUND
THE CAPITAL REGION...BUT REACHING 50 OR A LITTLE HIGHER SOUTH OF THE
CAPITAL REGION...40-45 HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE WIND WILL BE BRISK OUT OF THE SOUTH THIS MORNING 10-20 MPH WITH
SOME HIGHER GUSTS...ESPECIALLY AT THE ONSET OF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
AS EVAPORATIVE COOLING COULD MIX A PRETTY STRONG WSW LOW LEVEL JET
TO THE SURFACE. AS THE COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH...THE WIND WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST AT SIMILAR SPEEDS. THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR
GUSTS 35-45 MPH...JUST BELOW WIND ADVISORY THRESHOLDS...BUT WE WILL
MONITOR.   THE QPF WILL LIGHT THIS SYSTEM...WELL UNDER A QUARTER OF
AN INCH...AND IN SOME PLACES FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD...PERHAPS NOT
EVEN MEASURING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN RESULTING IN A CLEARING
SKY AND A GRADUAL DIMINISHING WIND (AFTER SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE
EVENING)...BUT PROBABLY NOT GO COMPLETELY CALM. NIGHT TIME LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S...EXCEPT UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

A TRAILING PIECE OF NORTHERN STREAM UPPER ENERGY TRACKS SOUTHEAST
OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND TRACKS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TUESDAY...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A PRECIPITATION
SHIELD...POSSIBLY EXTENDING JUST SOUTH OF I-90. CLOUDS WILL EXTEND
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA. WHILE ON PAPER IT LOOKS COLD
ENOUGH FOR THIS PRECIPITATION TO BE SNOW...THAT FACT THAT IT IS
NEARLY APRIL...THE AIR MASS WILL NOT BE ALL THAT COLD...AND MUCH OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL DURING THE DAY ALLOWING SOLAR INFLUENCE
THROUGH THE CLOUDS...PTYPE WILL BE A CHALLENGE. IF THE PRECIPITATION
IS LIGHT ENOUGH (WHICH WE BELIEVE WILL BE THE CASE) WE WOULD
PROBABLY BE LOOKING AT SNOW AT ELEVATIONS HIGHER THAN 1500
FEET...AND RAIN OR RAIN SNOW MIX IN THE VALLEY WITH VERY LITTLE IF
ANY ACCUMULATION. EVEN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACCUMULATIONS (IF
ANY) LOOK LIGHT BUT AGAIN WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR LATER TRENDS TO
SEE IF THERE SIGNALS RAMPING UP THE QPF (WHICH WOULD FAVOR MORE SNOW
OVER RAIN AND OF COURSE MORE ACCUMULATION). WE KEPT POPS IN THE
CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW...EVEN THOUGH SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES
HIGHER CHANCES THAN THAT TO OUR SOUTH.

PROJECT HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS (POSSIBLY
HIGHEST NORTH OF ALBANY WHERE THE CLOUDS WILL BE THE THINNEST). HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 30S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN...IF
PRECIPITATION TURNS OUT TO BE HEAVIER...THESE HIGHS WOULD HAVE TO BE
LOWERED SEVERAL DEGREES.

THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ON TUESDAY EVENING...LEAVING HIGH PRESSURE
TO BUILD BACK IN. THE SKY SHOULD CLEAR AND WITH LIGHT WIND
TEMPERATURES WILL TANK (ESPECIALLY IN ANY AREAS THAT PICK UP EVEN
FRESH COATING OF SNOW). LOWS WILL DIP BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S
ALBANY SOUTHWARD...15-20 FURTHER NORTH AND WEST.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY DECENT DAY (AT LEAST BY THIS SPRING
STANDARDS). BRIGHT SUNSHINE WILL BOLSTER TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 40S IN THE VALLEYS...MID TO UPPER 30S HIGHER TERRAIN.
THESE VALUES ARE STILL A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COMING SOON.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM...HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WERE ALREADY INCREASING ACROSS
THE REGION...AND WILL THICKEN AND LOWER OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT.

AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES...LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 09Z AND 13Z. ONCE THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH...THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS (MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS LATER IN THE DAY...WILL
CONTINUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING
THE MID AFTERNOON PERIOD. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THERE WILL STILL
BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALSO AFFECTS
THE REGION.

ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A FEW WEATHER FEATURES AFFECTING THE REGION
DURING THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 06Z TUESDAY...MOISTURE IS LIMITED
AND FORCING IS RELATIVELY WEAK...SO FOR THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF
TAF SITES HAVE GENERALLY FORECAST VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE
TAF PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION IS AT KGFL/KPSF...WHERE A TEMPO GROUP
FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS DUE TO SNOW SHOWERS HAS BEEN FORECAST BETWEEN
09Z AND 13Z. OTHERWISE...THE THREAT OF SHOWERS IS LOW AND TIMING
DIFFICULT...SO HAVE ONLY INDICATED VCSH AT THE OTHER TAF SITES
AND DURING OTHER TIMES OF THE TAFS.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE INCREASING AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT TO 5 TO
10 KTS...WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 15 KTS AT KALB. AFTER THE WARM
FRONT THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO 8 TO
12 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 25 KTS DURING MID/LATE MONDAY MORNING.
BY MID AFTERNOON THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WESTERLY AFTER THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH SPEEDS OF 12 TO 18 KTS AND GUSTS OF 20
TO 30 KTS. AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...THE SPEEDS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH TODAY...

A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION EARLY MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS
FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST. A COLD FRONT COULD BRING A FEW MORE
SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK
IN TONIGHT. ANOTHER CLIPPER TRACKING MAINLY SOUTH OF THE REGION
COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 55 PERCENT MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 70 AND 100 PERCENT TONIGHT
AND MONDAY NIGHT.

A SOUTH WIND AVERAGE 10 TO 20 MPH...THEN BECOME WEST TO
NORTHWEST BY WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH BY AFTERNOON. THE WIND WILL
DIMINISHING DOWN 5-15 MPH LATE MONDAY NIGHT...LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE SLOW ANY RISES.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...AND SOME AREAS MAY NOT SEE PRECIPITATION. SOME OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.

ANOTHER DISTURBANCE COULD BRING A LITTLE MORE RAIN OR SNOW TO MAINLY AREAS SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 90 TUESDAY. QPF AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT...UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH
WHICH SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR HSA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE SNOWPACK IN PLACE...
AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV/NAS
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...HWJIV/GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/NAS



000
FXUS61 KALY 300843
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
440 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW MAINLY
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST. A COLD
FRONT COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER CLIPPER
TRACKING SOUTH OF THE REGION COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO
SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

AS OF 430 AM EST...RADARS INDICATED SHOWERS WERE WORKING ACROSS OUR
WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA)...MAINLY WEST OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY. SOME OF THESE PROBABLY AREN/T REACHING THE GROUND AS THERE
WAS A LOT OF DRY AIR TO SATURATE IN THE COLUMN. WITH TIME...MOST OF
THESE SHOWERS WOULD PRODUCE A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH LIQUID
PRECIPITATION. IT IS COLD ENOUGH FOR THESE TO BE SNOW...EVEN THOUGH
TEMPERATURES WERE MAINLY ABOVE FREEZING IN THE VALLEY (LOWER TO MID
30S)...MID TO UPPER 20S HIGHER TERRAIN. AS THE SNOW SHOWERS
FALL...THEY MIGHT EVEN BRIEFLY BUMP TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN A COUPLE
OF DEGREES DUE TO EVAPORATIVE COOLING.

THIS FIRST BATCH IS ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION AND LOOK TO
EXIT OUR REGION DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE MORNING. THE LATEST
HRRR INDICATED NOT MUCH ACTIVITY BEHIND THIS BATCH.
HOWEVER...UPSTREAM A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION BY
AFTERNOON...AND THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE DESTABILIZING (INCREASING
COLD ALOFT). THEREFORE...WE FEEL PRETTY CONFIDENT ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS OF RAIN...GRAUPEL WILL DEVELOP. THIS IS HINTED BY
THE HRRR. AS IT TURNS COLDER ALOFT...ANY OF THESE SHOWERS COULD TURN
BACK TO SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS ELEVATIONS HIGHER THAN 2500 FEET LATER
THIS AFTERNOON.

SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THIS MORNING WILL LOCALIZED AND CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE AN INCH OR TWO COULD ACCUMULATE. NOTHING MORE
THAN A DUSTING TO AN INCH (IF THAT) IS EXPECTED IN ANY VALLEY
AREAS...MAINLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

THIS AFTERNOON...THERE SHOULD BE NO REAL ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS...EVEN OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TRICKY TO FORECAST. THEY WILL BE HIGHLY ON
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION COVERAGE. LESS PRECIPITATION AND MORE
BREAKS OF SUNSHINE COULD AND BRIEF GUSTY WSW WIND COULD PROPEL
TEMPERATURES PAST 50 IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT FOR THE FIRST TIME IN
92 DAYS. HOWEVER...WE LEAN WITH MORE CLOUDS AND ENOUGH SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO HOLD HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE UPPER 40S IN AND AROUND
THE CAPITAL REGION...BUT REACHING 50 OR A LITTLE HIGHER SOUTH OF THE
CAPITAL REGION...40-45 HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE WIND WILL BE BRISK OUT OF THE SOUTH THIS MORNING 10-20 MPH WITH
SOME HIGHER GUSTS...ESPECIALLY AT THE ONSET OF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
AS EVAPORATIVE COOLING COULD MIX A PRETTY STRONG WSW LOW LEVEL JET
TO THE SURFACE. AS THE COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH...THE WIND WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST AT SIMILAR SPEEDS. THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR
GUSTS 35-45 MPH...JUST BELOW WIND ADVISORY THRESHOLDS...BUT WE WILL
MONITOR.   THE QPF WILL LIGHT THIS SYSTEM...WELL UNDER A QUARTER OF
AN INCH...AND IN SOME PLACES FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD...PERHAPS NOT
EVEN MEASURING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN RESULTING IN A CLEARING
SKY AND A GRADUAL DIMINISHING WIND (AFTER SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE
EVENING)...BUT PROBABLY NOT GO COMPLETELY CALM. NIGHT TIME LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S...EXCEPT UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

A TRAILING PIECE OF NORTHERN STREAM UPPER ENERGY TRACKS SOUTHEAST
OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND TRACKS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TUESDAY...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A PRECIPITATION
SHIELD...POSSIBLY EXTENDING JUST SOUTH OF I-90. CLOUDS WILL EXTEND
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA. WHILE ON PAPER IT LOOKS COLD
ENOUGH FOR THIS PRECIPITATION TO BE SNOW...THAT FACT THAT IT IS
NEARLY APRIL...THE AIR MASS WILL NOT BE ALL THAT COLD...AND MUCH OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL DURING THE DAY ALLOWING SOLAR INFLUENCE
THROUGH THE CLOUDS...PTYPE WILL BE A CHALLENGE. IF THE PRECIPITATION
IS LIGHT ENOUGH (WHICH WE BELIEVE WILL BE THE CASE) WE WOULD
PROBABLY BE LOOKING AT SNOW AT ELEVATIONS HIGHER THAN 1500
FEET...AND RAIN OR RAIN SNOW MIX IN THE VALLEY WITH VERY LITTLE IF
ANY ACCUMULATION. EVEN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACCUMULATIONS (IF
ANY) LOOK LIGHT BUT AGAIN WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR LATER TRENDS TO
SEE IF THERE SIGNALS RAMPING UP THE QPF (WHICH WOULD FAVOR MORE SNOW
OVER RAIN AND OF COURSE MORE ACCUMULATION). WE KEPT POPS IN THE
CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW...EVEN THOUGH SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES
HIGHER CHANCES THAN THAT TO OUR SOUTH.

PROJECT HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS (POSSIBLY
HIGHEST NORTH OF ALBANY WHERE THE CLOUDS WILL BE THE THINNEST). HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 30S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN...IF
PRECIPITATION TURNS OUT TO BE HEAVIER...THESE HIGHS WOULD HAVE TO BE
LOWERED SEVERAL DEGREES.

THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ON TUESDAY EVENING...LEAVING HIGH PRESSURE
TO BUILD BACK IN. THE SKY SHOULD CLEAR AND WITH LIGHT WIND
TEMPERATURES WILL TANK (ESPECIALLY IN ANY AREAS THAT PICK UP EVEN
FRESH COATING OF SNOW). LOWS WILL DIP BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S
ALBANY SOUTHWARD...15-20 FURTHER NORTH AND WEST.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY DECENT DAY (AT LEAST BY THIS SPRING
STANDARDS). BRIGHT SUNSHINE WILL BOLSTER TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 40S IN THE VALLEYS...MID TO UPPER 30S HIGHER TERRAIN.
THESE VALUES ARE STILL A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COMING SOON.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM...HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WERE ALREADY INCREASING ACROSS
THE REGION...AND WILL THICKEN AND LOWER OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT.

AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES...LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 09Z AND 13Z. ONCE THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH...THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS (MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS LATER IN THE DAY...WILL
CONTINUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING
THE MID AFTERNOON PERIOD. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THERE WILL STILL
BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALSO AFFECTS
THE REGION.

ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A FEW WEATHER FEATURES AFFECTING THE REGION
DURING THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 06Z TUESDAY...MOISTURE IS LIMITED
AND FORCING IS RELATIVELY WEAK...SO FOR THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF
TAF SITES HAVE GENERALLY FORECAST VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE
TAF PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION IS AT KGFL/KPSF...WHERE A TEMPO GROUP
FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS DUE TO SNOW SHOWERS HAS BEEN FORECAST BETWEEN
09Z AND 13Z. OTHERWISE...THE THREAT OF SHOWERS IS LOW AND TIMING
DIFFICULT...SO HAVE ONLY INDICATED VCSH AT THE OTHER TAF SITES
AND DURING OTHER TIMES OF THE TAFS.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE INCREASING AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT TO 5 TO
10 KTS...WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 15 KTS AT KALB. AFTER THE WARM
FRONT THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO 8 TO
12 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 25 KTS DURING MID/LATE MONDAY MORNING.
BY MID AFTERNOON THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WESTERLY AFTER THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH SPEEDS OF 12 TO 18 KTS AND GUSTS OF 20
TO 30 KTS. AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...THE SPEEDS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH TODAY...

A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION EARLY MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS
FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST. A COLD FRONT COULD BRING A FEW MORE
SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK
IN TONIGHT. ANOTHER CLIPPER TRACKING MAINLY SOUTH OF THE REGION
COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 55 PERCENT MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 70 AND 100 PERCENT TONIGHT
AND MONDAY NIGHT.

A SOUTH WIND AVERAGE 10 TO 20 MPH...THEN BECOME WEST TO
NORTHWEST BY WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH BY AFTERNOON. THE WIND WILL
DIMINISHING DOWN 5-15 MPH LATE MONDAY NIGHT...LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE SLOW ANY RISES.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...AND SOME AREAS MAY NOT SEE PRECIPITATION. SOME OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.

ANOTHER DISTURBANCE COULD BRING A LITTLE MORE RAIN OR SNOW TO MAINLY AREAS SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 90 TUESDAY. QPF AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT...UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH
WHICH SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR HSA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE SNOWPACK IN PLACE...
AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV/NAS
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...HWJIV/GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/NAS




000
FXUS61 KALY 300843
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
440 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW MAINLY
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST. A COLD
FRONT COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER CLIPPER
TRACKING SOUTH OF THE REGION COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO
SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

AS OF 430 AM EST...RADARS INDICATED SHOWERS WERE WORKING ACROSS OUR
WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA)...MAINLY WEST OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY. SOME OF THESE PROBABLY AREN/T REACHING THE GROUND AS THERE
WAS A LOT OF DRY AIR TO SATURATE IN THE COLUMN. WITH TIME...MOST OF
THESE SHOWERS WOULD PRODUCE A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH LIQUID
PRECIPITATION. IT IS COLD ENOUGH FOR THESE TO BE SNOW...EVEN THOUGH
TEMPERATURES WERE MAINLY ABOVE FREEZING IN THE VALLEY (LOWER TO MID
30S)...MID TO UPPER 20S HIGHER TERRAIN. AS THE SNOW SHOWERS
FALL...THEY MIGHT EVEN BRIEFLY BUMP TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN A COUPLE
OF DEGREES DUE TO EVAPORATIVE COOLING.

THIS FIRST BATCH IS ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION AND LOOK TO
EXIT OUR REGION DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE MORNING. THE LATEST
HRRR INDICATED NOT MUCH ACTIVITY BEHIND THIS BATCH.
HOWEVER...UPSTREAM A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION BY
AFTERNOON...AND THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE DESTABILIZING (INCREASING
COLD ALOFT). THEREFORE...WE FEEL PRETTY CONFIDENT ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS OF RAIN...GRAUPEL WILL DEVELOP. THIS IS HINTED BY
THE HRRR. AS IT TURNS COLDER ALOFT...ANY OF THESE SHOWERS COULD TURN
BACK TO SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS ELEVATIONS HIGHER THAN 2500 FEET LATER
THIS AFTERNOON.

SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THIS MORNING WILL LOCALIZED AND CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE AN INCH OR TWO COULD ACCUMULATE. NOTHING MORE
THAN A DUSTING TO AN INCH (IF THAT) IS EXPECTED IN ANY VALLEY
AREAS...MAINLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

THIS AFTERNOON...THERE SHOULD BE NO REAL ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS...EVEN OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TRICKY TO FORECAST. THEY WILL BE HIGHLY ON
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION COVERAGE. LESS PRECIPITATION AND MORE
BREAKS OF SUNSHINE COULD AND BRIEF GUSTY WSW WIND COULD PROPEL
TEMPERATURES PAST 50 IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT FOR THE FIRST TIME IN
92 DAYS. HOWEVER...WE LEAN WITH MORE CLOUDS AND ENOUGH SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO HOLD HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE UPPER 40S IN AND AROUND
THE CAPITAL REGION...BUT REACHING 50 OR A LITTLE HIGHER SOUTH OF THE
CAPITAL REGION...40-45 HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE WIND WILL BE BRISK OUT OF THE SOUTH THIS MORNING 10-20 MPH WITH
SOME HIGHER GUSTS...ESPECIALLY AT THE ONSET OF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
AS EVAPORATIVE COOLING COULD MIX A PRETTY STRONG WSW LOW LEVEL JET
TO THE SURFACE. AS THE COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH...THE WIND WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST AT SIMILAR SPEEDS. THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR
GUSTS 35-45 MPH...JUST BELOW WIND ADVISORY THRESHOLDS...BUT WE WILL
MONITOR.   THE QPF WILL LIGHT THIS SYSTEM...WELL UNDER A QUARTER OF
AN INCH...AND IN SOME PLACES FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD...PERHAPS NOT
EVEN MEASURING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN RESULTING IN A CLEARING
SKY AND A GRADUAL DIMINISHING WIND (AFTER SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE
EVENING)...BUT PROBABLY NOT GO COMPLETELY CALM. NIGHT TIME LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S...EXCEPT UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

A TRAILING PIECE OF NORTHERN STREAM UPPER ENERGY TRACKS SOUTHEAST
OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND TRACKS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TUESDAY...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A PRECIPITATION
SHIELD...POSSIBLY EXTENDING JUST SOUTH OF I-90. CLOUDS WILL EXTEND
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA. WHILE ON PAPER IT LOOKS COLD
ENOUGH FOR THIS PRECIPITATION TO BE SNOW...THAT FACT THAT IT IS
NEARLY APRIL...THE AIR MASS WILL NOT BE ALL THAT COLD...AND MUCH OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL DURING THE DAY ALLOWING SOLAR INFLUENCE
THROUGH THE CLOUDS...PTYPE WILL BE A CHALLENGE. IF THE PRECIPITATION
IS LIGHT ENOUGH (WHICH WE BELIEVE WILL BE THE CASE) WE WOULD
PROBABLY BE LOOKING AT SNOW AT ELEVATIONS HIGHER THAN 1500
FEET...AND RAIN OR RAIN SNOW MIX IN THE VALLEY WITH VERY LITTLE IF
ANY ACCUMULATION. EVEN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACCUMULATIONS (IF
ANY) LOOK LIGHT BUT AGAIN WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR LATER TRENDS TO
SEE IF THERE SIGNALS RAMPING UP THE QPF (WHICH WOULD FAVOR MORE SNOW
OVER RAIN AND OF COURSE MORE ACCUMULATION). WE KEPT POPS IN THE
CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW...EVEN THOUGH SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES
HIGHER CHANCES THAN THAT TO OUR SOUTH.

PROJECT HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS (POSSIBLY
HIGHEST NORTH OF ALBANY WHERE THE CLOUDS WILL BE THE THINNEST). HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 30S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN...IF
PRECIPITATION TURNS OUT TO BE HEAVIER...THESE HIGHS WOULD HAVE TO BE
LOWERED SEVERAL DEGREES.

THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ON TUESDAY EVENING...LEAVING HIGH PRESSURE
TO BUILD BACK IN. THE SKY SHOULD CLEAR AND WITH LIGHT WIND
TEMPERATURES WILL TANK (ESPECIALLY IN ANY AREAS THAT PICK UP EVEN
FRESH COATING OF SNOW). LOWS WILL DIP BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S
ALBANY SOUTHWARD...15-20 FURTHER NORTH AND WEST.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY DECENT DAY (AT LEAST BY THIS SPRING
STANDARDS). BRIGHT SUNSHINE WILL BOLSTER TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 40S IN THE VALLEYS...MID TO UPPER 30S HIGHER TERRAIN.
THESE VALUES ARE STILL A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COMING SOON.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM...HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WERE ALREADY INCREASING ACROSS
THE REGION...AND WILL THICKEN AND LOWER OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT.

AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES...LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 09Z AND 13Z. ONCE THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH...THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS (MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS LATER IN THE DAY...WILL
CONTINUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING
THE MID AFTERNOON PERIOD. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THERE WILL STILL
BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALSO AFFECTS
THE REGION.

ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A FEW WEATHER FEATURES AFFECTING THE REGION
DURING THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 06Z TUESDAY...MOISTURE IS LIMITED
AND FORCING IS RELATIVELY WEAK...SO FOR THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF
TAF SITES HAVE GENERALLY FORECAST VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE
TAF PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION IS AT KGFL/KPSF...WHERE A TEMPO GROUP
FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS DUE TO SNOW SHOWERS HAS BEEN FORECAST BETWEEN
09Z AND 13Z. OTHERWISE...THE THREAT OF SHOWERS IS LOW AND TIMING
DIFFICULT...SO HAVE ONLY INDICATED VCSH AT THE OTHER TAF SITES
AND DURING OTHER TIMES OF THE TAFS.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE INCREASING AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT TO 5 TO
10 KTS...WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 15 KTS AT KALB. AFTER THE WARM
FRONT THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO 8 TO
12 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 25 KTS DURING MID/LATE MONDAY MORNING.
BY MID AFTERNOON THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WESTERLY AFTER THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH SPEEDS OF 12 TO 18 KTS AND GUSTS OF 20
TO 30 KTS. AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...THE SPEEDS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH TODAY...

A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION EARLY MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS
FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST. A COLD FRONT COULD BRING A FEW MORE
SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK
IN TONIGHT. ANOTHER CLIPPER TRACKING MAINLY SOUTH OF THE REGION
COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 55 PERCENT MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 70 AND 100 PERCENT TONIGHT
AND MONDAY NIGHT.

A SOUTH WIND AVERAGE 10 TO 20 MPH...THEN BECOME WEST TO
NORTHWEST BY WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH BY AFTERNOON. THE WIND WILL
DIMINISHING DOWN 5-15 MPH LATE MONDAY NIGHT...LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE SLOW ANY RISES.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...AND SOME AREAS MAY NOT SEE PRECIPITATION. SOME OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.

ANOTHER DISTURBANCE COULD BRING A LITTLE MORE RAIN OR SNOW TO MAINLY AREAS SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 90 TUESDAY. QPF AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT...UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH
WHICH SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR HSA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE SNOWPACK IN PLACE...
AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV/NAS
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...HWJIV/GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/NAS




000
FXUS61 KALY 300843
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
440 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW MAINLY
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST. A COLD
FRONT COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER CLIPPER
TRACKING SOUTH OF THE REGION COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO
SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

AS OF 430 AM EST...RADARS INDICATED SHOWERS WERE WORKING ACROSS OUR
WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA)...MAINLY WEST OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY. SOME OF THESE PROBABLY AREN/T REACHING THE GROUND AS THERE
WAS A LOT OF DRY AIR TO SATURATE IN THE COLUMN. WITH TIME...MOST OF
THESE SHOWERS WOULD PRODUCE A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH LIQUID
PRECIPITATION. IT IS COLD ENOUGH FOR THESE TO BE SNOW...EVEN THOUGH
TEMPERATURES WERE MAINLY ABOVE FREEZING IN THE VALLEY (LOWER TO MID
30S)...MID TO UPPER 20S HIGHER TERRAIN. AS THE SNOW SHOWERS
FALL...THEY MIGHT EVEN BRIEFLY BUMP TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN A COUPLE
OF DEGREES DUE TO EVAPORATIVE COOLING.

THIS FIRST BATCH IS ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION AND LOOK TO
EXIT OUR REGION DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE MORNING. THE LATEST
HRRR INDICATED NOT MUCH ACTIVITY BEHIND THIS BATCH.
HOWEVER...UPSTREAM A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION BY
AFTERNOON...AND THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE DESTABILIZING (INCREASING
COLD ALOFT). THEREFORE...WE FEEL PRETTY CONFIDENT ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS OF RAIN...GRAUPEL WILL DEVELOP. THIS IS HINTED BY
THE HRRR. AS IT TURNS COLDER ALOFT...ANY OF THESE SHOWERS COULD TURN
BACK TO SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS ELEVATIONS HIGHER THAN 2500 FEET LATER
THIS AFTERNOON.

SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THIS MORNING WILL LOCALIZED AND CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE AN INCH OR TWO COULD ACCUMULATE. NOTHING MORE
THAN A DUSTING TO AN INCH (IF THAT) IS EXPECTED IN ANY VALLEY
AREAS...MAINLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

THIS AFTERNOON...THERE SHOULD BE NO REAL ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS...EVEN OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TRICKY TO FORECAST. THEY WILL BE HIGHLY ON
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION COVERAGE. LESS PRECIPITATION AND MORE
BREAKS OF SUNSHINE COULD AND BRIEF GUSTY WSW WIND COULD PROPEL
TEMPERATURES PAST 50 IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT FOR THE FIRST TIME IN
92 DAYS. HOWEVER...WE LEAN WITH MORE CLOUDS AND ENOUGH SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO HOLD HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE UPPER 40S IN AND AROUND
THE CAPITAL REGION...BUT REACHING 50 OR A LITTLE HIGHER SOUTH OF THE
CAPITAL REGION...40-45 HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE WIND WILL BE BRISK OUT OF THE SOUTH THIS MORNING 10-20 MPH WITH
SOME HIGHER GUSTS...ESPECIALLY AT THE ONSET OF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
AS EVAPORATIVE COOLING COULD MIX A PRETTY STRONG WSW LOW LEVEL JET
TO THE SURFACE. AS THE COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH...THE WIND WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST AT SIMILAR SPEEDS. THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR
GUSTS 35-45 MPH...JUST BELOW WIND ADVISORY THRESHOLDS...BUT WE WILL
MONITOR.   THE QPF WILL LIGHT THIS SYSTEM...WELL UNDER A QUARTER OF
AN INCH...AND IN SOME PLACES FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD...PERHAPS NOT
EVEN MEASURING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN RESULTING IN A CLEARING
SKY AND A GRADUAL DIMINISHING WIND (AFTER SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE
EVENING)...BUT PROBABLY NOT GO COMPLETELY CALM. NIGHT TIME LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S...EXCEPT UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

A TRAILING PIECE OF NORTHERN STREAM UPPER ENERGY TRACKS SOUTHEAST
OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND TRACKS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TUESDAY...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A PRECIPITATION
SHIELD...POSSIBLY EXTENDING JUST SOUTH OF I-90. CLOUDS WILL EXTEND
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA. WHILE ON PAPER IT LOOKS COLD
ENOUGH FOR THIS PRECIPITATION TO BE SNOW...THAT FACT THAT IT IS
NEARLY APRIL...THE AIR MASS WILL NOT BE ALL THAT COLD...AND MUCH OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL DURING THE DAY ALLOWING SOLAR INFLUENCE
THROUGH THE CLOUDS...PTYPE WILL BE A CHALLENGE. IF THE PRECIPITATION
IS LIGHT ENOUGH (WHICH WE BELIEVE WILL BE THE CASE) WE WOULD
PROBABLY BE LOOKING AT SNOW AT ELEVATIONS HIGHER THAN 1500
FEET...AND RAIN OR RAIN SNOW MIX IN THE VALLEY WITH VERY LITTLE IF
ANY ACCUMULATION. EVEN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACCUMULATIONS (IF
ANY) LOOK LIGHT BUT AGAIN WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR LATER TRENDS TO
SEE IF THERE SIGNALS RAMPING UP THE QPF (WHICH WOULD FAVOR MORE SNOW
OVER RAIN AND OF COURSE MORE ACCUMULATION). WE KEPT POPS IN THE
CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW...EVEN THOUGH SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES
HIGHER CHANCES THAN THAT TO OUR SOUTH.

PROJECT HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS (POSSIBLY
HIGHEST NORTH OF ALBANY WHERE THE CLOUDS WILL BE THE THINNEST). HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 30S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN...IF
PRECIPITATION TURNS OUT TO BE HEAVIER...THESE HIGHS WOULD HAVE TO BE
LOWERED SEVERAL DEGREES.

THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ON TUESDAY EVENING...LEAVING HIGH PRESSURE
TO BUILD BACK IN. THE SKY SHOULD CLEAR AND WITH LIGHT WIND
TEMPERATURES WILL TANK (ESPECIALLY IN ANY AREAS THAT PICK UP EVEN
FRESH COATING OF SNOW). LOWS WILL DIP BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S
ALBANY SOUTHWARD...15-20 FURTHER NORTH AND WEST.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY DECENT DAY (AT LEAST BY THIS SPRING
STANDARDS). BRIGHT SUNSHINE WILL BOLSTER TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 40S IN THE VALLEYS...MID TO UPPER 30S HIGHER TERRAIN.
THESE VALUES ARE STILL A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COMING SOON.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM...HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WERE ALREADY INCREASING ACROSS
THE REGION...AND WILL THICKEN AND LOWER OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT.

AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES...LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 09Z AND 13Z. ONCE THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH...THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS (MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS LATER IN THE DAY...WILL
CONTINUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING
THE MID AFTERNOON PERIOD. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THERE WILL STILL
BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALSO AFFECTS
THE REGION.

ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A FEW WEATHER FEATURES AFFECTING THE REGION
DURING THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 06Z TUESDAY...MOISTURE IS LIMITED
AND FORCING IS RELATIVELY WEAK...SO FOR THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF
TAF SITES HAVE GENERALLY FORECAST VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE
TAF PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION IS AT KGFL/KPSF...WHERE A TEMPO GROUP
FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS DUE TO SNOW SHOWERS HAS BEEN FORECAST BETWEEN
09Z AND 13Z. OTHERWISE...THE THREAT OF SHOWERS IS LOW AND TIMING
DIFFICULT...SO HAVE ONLY INDICATED VCSH AT THE OTHER TAF SITES
AND DURING OTHER TIMES OF THE TAFS.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE INCREASING AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT TO 5 TO
10 KTS...WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 15 KTS AT KALB. AFTER THE WARM
FRONT THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO 8 TO
12 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 25 KTS DURING MID/LATE MONDAY MORNING.
BY MID AFTERNOON THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WESTERLY AFTER THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH SPEEDS OF 12 TO 18 KTS AND GUSTS OF 20
TO 30 KTS. AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...THE SPEEDS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH TODAY...

A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION EARLY MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS
FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST. A COLD FRONT COULD BRING A FEW MORE
SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK
IN TONIGHT. ANOTHER CLIPPER TRACKING MAINLY SOUTH OF THE REGION
COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 55 PERCENT MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 70 AND 100 PERCENT TONIGHT
AND MONDAY NIGHT.

A SOUTH WIND AVERAGE 10 TO 20 MPH...THEN BECOME WEST TO
NORTHWEST BY WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH BY AFTERNOON. THE WIND WILL
DIMINISHING DOWN 5-15 MPH LATE MONDAY NIGHT...LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE SLOW ANY RISES.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...AND SOME AREAS MAY NOT SEE PRECIPITATION. SOME OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.

ANOTHER DISTURBANCE COULD BRING A LITTLE MORE RAIN OR SNOW TO MAINLY AREAS SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 90 TUESDAY. QPF AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT...UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH
WHICH SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR HSA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE SNOWPACK IN PLACE...
AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV/NAS
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...HWJIV/GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/NAS




000
FXUS61 KALY 300843
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
440 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW MAINLY
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST. A COLD
FRONT COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER CLIPPER
TRACKING SOUTH OF THE REGION COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO
SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

AS OF 430 AM EST...RADARS INDICATED SHOWERS WERE WORKING ACROSS OUR
WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA)...MAINLY WEST OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY. SOME OF THESE PROBABLY AREN/T REACHING THE GROUND AS THERE
WAS A LOT OF DRY AIR TO SATURATE IN THE COLUMN. WITH TIME...MOST OF
THESE SHOWERS WOULD PRODUCE A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH LIQUID
PRECIPITATION. IT IS COLD ENOUGH FOR THESE TO BE SNOW...EVEN THOUGH
TEMPERATURES WERE MAINLY ABOVE FREEZING IN THE VALLEY (LOWER TO MID
30S)...MID TO UPPER 20S HIGHER TERRAIN. AS THE SNOW SHOWERS
FALL...THEY MIGHT EVEN BRIEFLY BUMP TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN A COUPLE
OF DEGREES DUE TO EVAPORATIVE COOLING.

THIS FIRST BATCH IS ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION AND LOOK TO
EXIT OUR REGION DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE MORNING. THE LATEST
HRRR INDICATED NOT MUCH ACTIVITY BEHIND THIS BATCH.
HOWEVER...UPSTREAM A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION BY
AFTERNOON...AND THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE DESTABILIZING (INCREASING
COLD ALOFT). THEREFORE...WE FEEL PRETTY CONFIDENT ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS OF RAIN...GRAUPEL WILL DEVELOP. THIS IS HINTED BY
THE HRRR. AS IT TURNS COLDER ALOFT...ANY OF THESE SHOWERS COULD TURN
BACK TO SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS ELEVATIONS HIGHER THAN 2500 FEET LATER
THIS AFTERNOON.

SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THIS MORNING WILL LOCALIZED AND CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE AN INCH OR TWO COULD ACCUMULATE. NOTHING MORE
THAN A DUSTING TO AN INCH (IF THAT) IS EXPECTED IN ANY VALLEY
AREAS...MAINLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

THIS AFTERNOON...THERE SHOULD BE NO REAL ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS...EVEN OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TRICKY TO FORECAST. THEY WILL BE HIGHLY ON
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION COVERAGE. LESS PRECIPITATION AND MORE
BREAKS OF SUNSHINE COULD AND BRIEF GUSTY WSW WIND COULD PROPEL
TEMPERATURES PAST 50 IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT FOR THE FIRST TIME IN
92 DAYS. HOWEVER...WE LEAN WITH MORE CLOUDS AND ENOUGH SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO HOLD HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE UPPER 40S IN AND AROUND
THE CAPITAL REGION...BUT REACHING 50 OR A LITTLE HIGHER SOUTH OF THE
CAPITAL REGION...40-45 HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE WIND WILL BE BRISK OUT OF THE SOUTH THIS MORNING 10-20 MPH WITH
SOME HIGHER GUSTS...ESPECIALLY AT THE ONSET OF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
AS EVAPORATIVE COOLING COULD MIX A PRETTY STRONG WSW LOW LEVEL JET
TO THE SURFACE. AS THE COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH...THE WIND WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST AT SIMILAR SPEEDS. THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR
GUSTS 35-45 MPH...JUST BELOW WIND ADVISORY THRESHOLDS...BUT WE WILL
MONITOR.   THE QPF WILL LIGHT THIS SYSTEM...WELL UNDER A QUARTER OF
AN INCH...AND IN SOME PLACES FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD...PERHAPS NOT
EVEN MEASURING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN RESULTING IN A CLEARING
SKY AND A GRADUAL DIMINISHING WIND (AFTER SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE
EVENING)...BUT PROBABLY NOT GO COMPLETELY CALM. NIGHT TIME LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S...EXCEPT UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

A TRAILING PIECE OF NORTHERN STREAM UPPER ENERGY TRACKS SOUTHEAST
OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND TRACKS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TUESDAY...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A PRECIPITATION
SHIELD...POSSIBLY EXTENDING JUST SOUTH OF I-90. CLOUDS WILL EXTEND
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA. WHILE ON PAPER IT LOOKS COLD
ENOUGH FOR THIS PRECIPITATION TO BE SNOW...THAT FACT THAT IT IS
NEARLY APRIL...THE AIR MASS WILL NOT BE ALL THAT COLD...AND MUCH OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL DURING THE DAY ALLOWING SOLAR INFLUENCE
THROUGH THE CLOUDS...PTYPE WILL BE A CHALLENGE. IF THE PRECIPITATION
IS LIGHT ENOUGH (WHICH WE BELIEVE WILL BE THE CASE) WE WOULD
PROBABLY BE LOOKING AT SNOW AT ELEVATIONS HIGHER THAN 1500
FEET...AND RAIN OR RAIN SNOW MIX IN THE VALLEY WITH VERY LITTLE IF
ANY ACCUMULATION. EVEN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACCUMULATIONS (IF
ANY) LOOK LIGHT BUT AGAIN WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR LATER TRENDS TO
SEE IF THERE SIGNALS RAMPING UP THE QPF (WHICH WOULD FAVOR MORE SNOW
OVER RAIN AND OF COURSE MORE ACCUMULATION). WE KEPT POPS IN THE
CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW...EVEN THOUGH SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES
HIGHER CHANCES THAN THAT TO OUR SOUTH.

PROJECT HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS (POSSIBLY
HIGHEST NORTH OF ALBANY WHERE THE CLOUDS WILL BE THE THINNEST). HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 30S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN...IF
PRECIPITATION TURNS OUT TO BE HEAVIER...THESE HIGHS WOULD HAVE TO BE
LOWERED SEVERAL DEGREES.

THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ON TUESDAY EVENING...LEAVING HIGH PRESSURE
TO BUILD BACK IN. THE SKY SHOULD CLEAR AND WITH LIGHT WIND
TEMPERATURES WILL TANK (ESPECIALLY IN ANY AREAS THAT PICK UP EVEN
FRESH COATING OF SNOW). LOWS WILL DIP BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S
ALBANY SOUTHWARD...15-20 FURTHER NORTH AND WEST.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY DECENT DAY (AT LEAST BY THIS SPRING
STANDARDS). BRIGHT SUNSHINE WILL BOLSTER TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 40S IN THE VALLEYS...MID TO UPPER 30S HIGHER TERRAIN.
THESE VALUES ARE STILL A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COMING SOON.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM...HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WERE ALREADY INCREASING ACROSS
THE REGION...AND WILL THICKEN AND LOWER OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT.

AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES...LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 09Z AND 13Z. ONCE THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH...THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS (MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS LATER IN THE DAY...WILL
CONTINUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING
THE MID AFTERNOON PERIOD. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THERE WILL STILL
BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALSO AFFECTS
THE REGION.

ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A FEW WEATHER FEATURES AFFECTING THE REGION
DURING THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 06Z TUESDAY...MOISTURE IS LIMITED
AND FORCING IS RELATIVELY WEAK...SO FOR THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF
TAF SITES HAVE GENERALLY FORECAST VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE
TAF PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION IS AT KGFL/KPSF...WHERE A TEMPO GROUP
FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS DUE TO SNOW SHOWERS HAS BEEN FORECAST BETWEEN
09Z AND 13Z. OTHERWISE...THE THREAT OF SHOWERS IS LOW AND TIMING
DIFFICULT...SO HAVE ONLY INDICATED VCSH AT THE OTHER TAF SITES
AND DURING OTHER TIMES OF THE TAFS.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE INCREASING AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT TO 5 TO
10 KTS...WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 15 KTS AT KALB. AFTER THE WARM
FRONT THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO 8 TO
12 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 25 KTS DURING MID/LATE MONDAY MORNING.
BY MID AFTERNOON THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WESTERLY AFTER THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH SPEEDS OF 12 TO 18 KTS AND GUSTS OF 20
TO 30 KTS. AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...THE SPEEDS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH TODAY...

A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION EARLY MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS
FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST. A COLD FRONT COULD BRING A FEW MORE
SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK
IN TONIGHT. ANOTHER CLIPPER TRACKING MAINLY SOUTH OF THE REGION
COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 55 PERCENT MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 70 AND 100 PERCENT TONIGHT
AND MONDAY NIGHT.

A SOUTH WIND AVERAGE 10 TO 20 MPH...THEN BECOME WEST TO
NORTHWEST BY WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH BY AFTERNOON. THE WIND WILL
DIMINISHING DOWN 5-15 MPH LATE MONDAY NIGHT...LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE SLOW ANY RISES.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...AND SOME AREAS MAY NOT SEE PRECIPITATION. SOME OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.

ANOTHER DISTURBANCE COULD BRING A LITTLE MORE RAIN OR SNOW TO MAINLY AREAS SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 90 TUESDAY. QPF AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT...UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH
WHICH SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR HSA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE SNOWPACK IN PLACE...
AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV/NAS
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...HWJIV/GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/NAS




000
FXUS61 KALY 300843
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
440 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW MAINLY
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST. A COLD
FRONT COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER CLIPPER
TRACKING SOUTH OF THE REGION COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO
SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

AS OF 430 AM EST...RADARS INDICATED SHOWERS WERE WORKING ACROSS OUR
WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA)...MAINLY WEST OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY. SOME OF THESE PROBABLY AREN/T REACHING THE GROUND AS THERE
WAS A LOT OF DRY AIR TO SATURATE IN THE COLUMN. WITH TIME...MOST OF
THESE SHOWERS WOULD PRODUCE A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH LIQUID
PRECIPITATION. IT IS COLD ENOUGH FOR THESE TO BE SNOW...EVEN THOUGH
TEMPERATURES WERE MAINLY ABOVE FREEZING IN THE VALLEY (LOWER TO MID
30S)...MID TO UPPER 20S HIGHER TERRAIN. AS THE SNOW SHOWERS
FALL...THEY MIGHT EVEN BRIEFLY BUMP TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN A COUPLE
OF DEGREES DUE TO EVAPORATIVE COOLING.

THIS FIRST BATCH IS ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION AND LOOK TO
EXIT OUR REGION DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE MORNING. THE LATEST
HRRR INDICATED NOT MUCH ACTIVITY BEHIND THIS BATCH.
HOWEVER...UPSTREAM A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION BY
AFTERNOON...AND THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE DESTABILIZING (INCREASING
COLD ALOFT). THEREFORE...WE FEEL PRETTY CONFIDENT ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS OF RAIN...GRAUPEL WILL DEVELOP. THIS IS HINTED BY
THE HRRR. AS IT TURNS COLDER ALOFT...ANY OF THESE SHOWERS COULD TURN
BACK TO SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS ELEVATIONS HIGHER THAN 2500 FEET LATER
THIS AFTERNOON.

SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THIS MORNING WILL LOCALIZED AND CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE AN INCH OR TWO COULD ACCUMULATE. NOTHING MORE
THAN A DUSTING TO AN INCH (IF THAT) IS EXPECTED IN ANY VALLEY
AREAS...MAINLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

THIS AFTERNOON...THERE SHOULD BE NO REAL ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS...EVEN OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TRICKY TO FORECAST. THEY WILL BE HIGHLY ON
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION COVERAGE. LESS PRECIPITATION AND MORE
BREAKS OF SUNSHINE COULD AND BRIEF GUSTY WSW WIND COULD PROPEL
TEMPERATURES PAST 50 IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT FOR THE FIRST TIME IN
92 DAYS. HOWEVER...WE LEAN WITH MORE CLOUDS AND ENOUGH SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO HOLD HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE UPPER 40S IN AND AROUND
THE CAPITAL REGION...BUT REACHING 50 OR A LITTLE HIGHER SOUTH OF THE
CAPITAL REGION...40-45 HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE WIND WILL BE BRISK OUT OF THE SOUTH THIS MORNING 10-20 MPH WITH
SOME HIGHER GUSTS...ESPECIALLY AT THE ONSET OF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
AS EVAPORATIVE COOLING COULD MIX A PRETTY STRONG WSW LOW LEVEL JET
TO THE SURFACE. AS THE COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH...THE WIND WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST AT SIMILAR SPEEDS. THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR
GUSTS 35-45 MPH...JUST BELOW WIND ADVISORY THRESHOLDS...BUT WE WILL
MONITOR.   THE QPF WILL LIGHT THIS SYSTEM...WELL UNDER A QUARTER OF
AN INCH...AND IN SOME PLACES FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD...PERHAPS NOT
EVEN MEASURING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN RESULTING IN A CLEARING
SKY AND A GRADUAL DIMINISHING WIND (AFTER SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE
EVENING)...BUT PROBABLY NOT GO COMPLETELY CALM. NIGHT TIME LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S...EXCEPT UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

A TRAILING PIECE OF NORTHERN STREAM UPPER ENERGY TRACKS SOUTHEAST
OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND TRACKS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TUESDAY...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A PRECIPITATION
SHIELD...POSSIBLY EXTENDING JUST SOUTH OF I-90. CLOUDS WILL EXTEND
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA. WHILE ON PAPER IT LOOKS COLD
ENOUGH FOR THIS PRECIPITATION TO BE SNOW...THAT FACT THAT IT IS
NEARLY APRIL...THE AIR MASS WILL NOT BE ALL THAT COLD...AND MUCH OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL DURING THE DAY ALLOWING SOLAR INFLUENCE
THROUGH THE CLOUDS...PTYPE WILL BE A CHALLENGE. IF THE PRECIPITATION
IS LIGHT ENOUGH (WHICH WE BELIEVE WILL BE THE CASE) WE WOULD
PROBABLY BE LOOKING AT SNOW AT ELEVATIONS HIGHER THAN 1500
FEET...AND RAIN OR RAIN SNOW MIX IN THE VALLEY WITH VERY LITTLE IF
ANY ACCUMULATION. EVEN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACCUMULATIONS (IF
ANY) LOOK LIGHT BUT AGAIN WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR LATER TRENDS TO
SEE IF THERE SIGNALS RAMPING UP THE QPF (WHICH WOULD FAVOR MORE SNOW
OVER RAIN AND OF COURSE MORE ACCUMULATION). WE KEPT POPS IN THE
CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW...EVEN THOUGH SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES
HIGHER CHANCES THAN THAT TO OUR SOUTH.

PROJECT HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS (POSSIBLY
HIGHEST NORTH OF ALBANY WHERE THE CLOUDS WILL BE THE THINNEST). HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 30S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN...IF
PRECIPITATION TURNS OUT TO BE HEAVIER...THESE HIGHS WOULD HAVE TO BE
LOWERED SEVERAL DEGREES.

THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ON TUESDAY EVENING...LEAVING HIGH PRESSURE
TO BUILD BACK IN. THE SKY SHOULD CLEAR AND WITH LIGHT WIND
TEMPERATURES WILL TANK (ESPECIALLY IN ANY AREAS THAT PICK UP EVEN
FRESH COATING OF SNOW). LOWS WILL DIP BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S
ALBANY SOUTHWARD...15-20 FURTHER NORTH AND WEST.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY DECENT DAY (AT LEAST BY THIS SPRING
STANDARDS). BRIGHT SUNSHINE WILL BOLSTER TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 40S IN THE VALLEYS...MID TO UPPER 30S HIGHER TERRAIN.
THESE VALUES ARE STILL A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COMING SOON.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM...HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WERE ALREADY INCREASING ACROSS
THE REGION...AND WILL THICKEN AND LOWER OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT.

AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES...LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 09Z AND 13Z. ONCE THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH...THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS (MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS LATER IN THE DAY...WILL
CONTINUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING
THE MID AFTERNOON PERIOD. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THERE WILL STILL
BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALSO AFFECTS
THE REGION.

ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A FEW WEATHER FEATURES AFFECTING THE REGION
DURING THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 06Z TUESDAY...MOISTURE IS LIMITED
AND FORCING IS RELATIVELY WEAK...SO FOR THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF
TAF SITES HAVE GENERALLY FORECAST VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE
TAF PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION IS AT KGFL/KPSF...WHERE A TEMPO GROUP
FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS DUE TO SNOW SHOWERS HAS BEEN FORECAST BETWEEN
09Z AND 13Z. OTHERWISE...THE THREAT OF SHOWERS IS LOW AND TIMING
DIFFICULT...SO HAVE ONLY INDICATED VCSH AT THE OTHER TAF SITES
AND DURING OTHER TIMES OF THE TAFS.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE INCREASING AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT TO 5 TO
10 KTS...WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 15 KTS AT KALB. AFTER THE WARM
FRONT THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO 8 TO
12 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 25 KTS DURING MID/LATE MONDAY MORNING.
BY MID AFTERNOON THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WESTERLY AFTER THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH SPEEDS OF 12 TO 18 KTS AND GUSTS OF 20
TO 30 KTS. AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...THE SPEEDS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH TODAY...

A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION EARLY MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS
FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST. A COLD FRONT COULD BRING A FEW MORE
SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK
IN TONIGHT. ANOTHER CLIPPER TRACKING MAINLY SOUTH OF THE REGION
COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 55 PERCENT MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 70 AND 100 PERCENT TONIGHT
AND MONDAY NIGHT.

A SOUTH WIND AVERAGE 10 TO 20 MPH...THEN BECOME WEST TO
NORTHWEST BY WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH BY AFTERNOON. THE WIND WILL
DIMINISHING DOWN 5-15 MPH LATE MONDAY NIGHT...LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE SLOW ANY RISES.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...AND SOME AREAS MAY NOT SEE PRECIPITATION. SOME OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.

ANOTHER DISTURBANCE COULD BRING A LITTLE MORE RAIN OR SNOW TO MAINLY AREAS SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 90 TUESDAY. QPF AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT...UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH
WHICH SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR HSA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE SNOWPACK IN PLACE...
AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV/NAS
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...HWJIV/GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/NAS




000
FXUS61 KBOX 300805
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
405 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY BRINGING A FEW
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. A FAST-MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES
SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT...POTENTIALLY BRINGING MORE
LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS. A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM MAY
APPROACH LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD FRONT CROSSING ONTARIO AND OHIO DURING THE NIGHT WILL MOVE
EAST TODAY...CROSSING NEW ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. NORTHERN
STREAM UPPER JET WILL BE IN POSITION DURING THIS TIME WITH THE
LEFT EXIT REGION OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL PROVIDE UPPER
VENTING OVERLAID ABOVE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OF THE FRONT. THIS
SHOULD SUPPORT SHOWERS. A FEW LIGHT ONES IN CENTRAL NEW YORK
OVERNIGHT MAY REACH OUR AREA THIS MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS SHOULD COME ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE TRANSITING COLD FRONT.
TIMING WOULD BE MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON WEST AND MID AFTERNOON
EAST.

TEMPERATURE PROFILES INITIALLY FAVOR SNOW. BUT EXPECTED WARMING IN
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW THIS MORNING SHOULD CHANGE THIS TO RAIN. ANY
SNOW ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE LIMITED TO AN INCH OR LESS...MOSTLY
LESS.

PRESSURE FALLS OF 1MB/HR OR MORE LEAD THIS FRONT. EXPECT
INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS DURING THE MORNING AND MIDDAY.
PRESSURES RISE BEHIND THE FRONT BUT NOT AS STRONGLY. BUT COLD
ADVECTION MAY INDUCE MIXING OF 25 KNOT GUSTS TO THE SURFACE AFTER
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES TO SUPPORT MIXING INTO THE NIGHT. WINDS
ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL BE 30-40 KNOTS...EXPECT SOME OF THIS TO MIX
TO THE SURFACE IN GUSTS. BASED ON TEMPERATURES UPSTREAM...EXPECT
LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

TUESDAY...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE WEATHER DRY MUCH OF THE DAY.
ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE RACES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT A CLIPPER LOW THAT MOVES
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES DURING THE AFTERNOON. FORECASTS
FROM THE 00Z MODEL SUITE ARE FARTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY WITH
THE ECMWF FARTHEST SOUTH. ALL MODELS BRING SOME MEASURABLE PCPN
INTO CT BY EVENING...THE GFS COVERS AREAS SOUTH OF THE MASS
PIKE...AND THE NAM HAS MEASURABLE PCPN EVERYWHERE.

TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST RAIN MOST PLACES EXCEPT SNOW IN THE
HILLS. TIMING OF THE PCPN WOULD BE AFTER 21Z. WE HAVE SHIFTED
OUR POPS FARTHER NORTH WITH CHANCE POPS REACHING TO ALONG/SOUTH OF
THE MASS PIKE BY 00Z.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
* MODERATING SPRING-LIKE TEMPS LATE THIS WEEK
* INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP DURING THE EASTER WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH AN ALBERTA
CLIPPER MOVING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. RIDGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WILL BUILD INTO NEW ENGLAND BY WED INTO THURSDAY. WESTERN TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CONUS AS A COLD FRONT REACHING THE NORTHEAST
LATE THUR THROUGH SAT. THIS SYSTEM IS ALSO AIDED BY AN UPPER LOW
CIRCLING AROUND HUDSON BAY WHICH WILL LOWER HEIGHTS IN THE NORTHEAST
BY NEXT WEEKEND.

OVERALL TREND IN THE GUIDANCE HAS LEAD TO A LOWER CONFIDENCE. MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED NORTHWARD WITH THE RUN FOR THE ALBERTA CLIPPER
INCREASING PRECIP FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. 00Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO SHOW HIGH PRESSURE ON WED BUT THE OVERALL COLD FRONT IS SPLIT
AMONGST GUIDANCE. THE GFS REMAINS QUICKER WITH THE SFC FRONT
THROUGH THE NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC FRI COMPARED TO THE OTHER
GUIDANCE. THEREFORE CONTINUED TO BLEND WITH WPC UNTIL THE MODELS
ARE MORE IN AGREEMENT.

DETAILS...

* TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY DIVE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM CANADA AND
MOVE JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. OVERALL GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED TOWARDS WHICH IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT RAIN/SNOW WILL
OCCUR. BELIEVE THAT LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE PIKE HAVE THE
BEST CHANCE TO SEE ANY SNOW ACCUMS ONCE TEMPS DROP DUE TO
WETBULBING. STILL NEED TO WATCH THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY AS THERE IS
STILL SPREAD AMONGST THE MODELS. RIGHT NOW ANTICIPATE A QUICK 1-2
INCHES OF SNOW ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE AND ISLAND.

* WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD BEHIND THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WED INTO WED NIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER SNE. LATEST
TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THURSDAY WILL STAY DRY AS HIGH
PRESSURE IS SLOW TO MOVE OFFSHORE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE WITH MID 40S ON WEDNESDAY AND MID 50S ON THURSDAY AS WAA
INCREASE AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM.

* THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. MODERATE
  CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP OCCURRING.

QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WILL SUPPORT CHANGEABLE TEMPERATURES... MODULATED
BY THE SFC COLD FRONT THU INTO SAT. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL BE ON
THE MILD SIDE IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT FINALLY GETTING ABOVE
FREEZING FOR NEW ENGLAND. IN FACT TEMPERATURES COULD BE THE WARMEST
THEY HAVE BEEN IN OVER FOUR MONTHS FOR THE REGION. HOWEVER AS THE
FRONT PASSES EXPECT TEMPS TO RETURN TO BELOW AVG BY ABOUT 5-15F.

ANTICIPATE THIS COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE AREA EITHER THURSDAY
NIGHT/GFS OR FRIDAY/EC AND CMC. APPEARS THAT A WAVE WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT SOMETIME LATE FRIDAY OR SAT. BECAUSE OF THE TIMING
DIFFERENCE...DECIDED TO BLANKET THIS TIME FRAME WITH CHC POPS AND
HOPEFULLY WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HRS CAN PUT BETTER DETAIL INTO THE
FORECAST. CAN STAY THAT THIS SYSTEM DOES LOOK WARM SO EXPECT PRECIP
TYPE TO BE MORE OF THE RAIN FORM. HOWEVER ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
FRONT COULD SEE SOME WET FLAKES.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS
TIMEFRAME.


&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

TODAY...VFR. BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
MIDDAY TO MID-AFTERNOON. GUSTY WEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT MAY
REACH 25-30 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...VFR. GUSTY WEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT MAY REACH 25-30
KNOTS.

TUESDAY...VFR. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE ACROSS CT AND RI TOWARD
EVENING.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. MAY SEE MVFR SOUTH OF
MASS PIKE IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...VFR.

FRIDAY...MVFR IN SHOWERS...COULD SEE IFR CONDITIONS BY FRI EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY

HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...A COLD FRONT CROSSES NEW ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS TOWARD EVENING. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST
TO NEAR 25 KNOTS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. WEST WINDS TRAILING THE
FRONT WILL GUST 25-30 KNOTS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5-7 FEET ON THE
OUTER WATERS AND RHODE ISLANDS/BLOCK ISLAND SOUNDS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONTINUES ON ALL WATERS.

TONIGHT...GUSTY WEST WINDS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. SEAS OF 5-7 FEET
LINGER ON THE OUTER WATERS AND RHODE ISLAND SOUNDS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONTINUES.

TUESDAY...GUSTY WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BRIEFLY OVER THE WATERS. LINGERING SMALL CRAFTS ON THE OUTER
WATERS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY NIGHT...QUICK-MOVING SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN
WATERS. THIS WILL KEEP BOTH SEAS AND WINDS ABOVE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. THERE IS A LOW PROB OF GALES FORCE WINDS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE...ALLOWING
FOR SEAS AND WINDS TO RELAX.

FRIDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS...RESULTING IN
INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS AND SEAS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ231-232.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ233-234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ230-236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 300805
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
405 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY BRINGING A FEW
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. A FAST-MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES
SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT...POTENTIALLY BRINGING MORE
LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS. A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM MAY
APPROACH LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD FRONT CROSSING ONTARIO AND OHIO DURING THE NIGHT WILL MOVE
EAST TODAY...CROSSING NEW ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. NORTHERN
STREAM UPPER JET WILL BE IN POSITION DURING THIS TIME WITH THE
LEFT EXIT REGION OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL PROVIDE UPPER
VENTING OVERLAID ABOVE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OF THE FRONT. THIS
SHOULD SUPPORT SHOWERS. A FEW LIGHT ONES IN CENTRAL NEW YORK
OVERNIGHT MAY REACH OUR AREA THIS MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS SHOULD COME ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE TRANSITING COLD FRONT.
TIMING WOULD BE MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON WEST AND MID AFTERNOON
EAST.

TEMPERATURE PROFILES INITIALLY FAVOR SNOW. BUT EXPECTED WARMING IN
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW THIS MORNING SHOULD CHANGE THIS TO RAIN. ANY
SNOW ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE LIMITED TO AN INCH OR LESS...MOSTLY
LESS.

PRESSURE FALLS OF 1MB/HR OR MORE LEAD THIS FRONT. EXPECT
INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS DURING THE MORNING AND MIDDAY.
PRESSURES RISE BEHIND THE FRONT BUT NOT AS STRONGLY. BUT COLD
ADVECTION MAY INDUCE MIXING OF 25 KNOT GUSTS TO THE SURFACE AFTER
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES TO SUPPORT MIXING INTO THE NIGHT. WINDS
ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL BE 30-40 KNOTS...EXPECT SOME OF THIS TO MIX
TO THE SURFACE IN GUSTS. BASED ON TEMPERATURES UPSTREAM...EXPECT
LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

TUESDAY...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE WEATHER DRY MUCH OF THE DAY.
ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE RACES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT A CLIPPER LOW THAT MOVES
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES DURING THE AFTERNOON. FORECASTS
FROM THE 00Z MODEL SUITE ARE FARTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY WITH
THE ECMWF FARTHEST SOUTH. ALL MODELS BRING SOME MEASURABLE PCPN
INTO CT BY EVENING...THE GFS COVERS AREAS SOUTH OF THE MASS
PIKE...AND THE NAM HAS MEASURABLE PCPN EVERYWHERE.

TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST RAIN MOST PLACES EXCEPT SNOW IN THE
HILLS. TIMING OF THE PCPN WOULD BE AFTER 21Z. WE HAVE SHIFTED
OUR POPS FARTHER NORTH WITH CHANCE POPS REACHING TO ALONG/SOUTH OF
THE MASS PIKE BY 00Z.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
* MODERATING SPRING-LIKE TEMPS LATE THIS WEEK
* INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP DURING THE EASTER WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH AN ALBERTA
CLIPPER MOVING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. RIDGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WILL BUILD INTO NEW ENGLAND BY WED INTO THURSDAY. WESTERN TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CONUS AS A COLD FRONT REACHING THE NORTHEAST
LATE THUR THROUGH SAT. THIS SYSTEM IS ALSO AIDED BY AN UPPER LOW
CIRCLING AROUND HUDSON BAY WHICH WILL LOWER HEIGHTS IN THE NORTHEAST
BY NEXT WEEKEND.

OVERALL TREND IN THE GUIDANCE HAS LEAD TO A LOWER CONFIDENCE. MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED NORTHWARD WITH THE RUN FOR THE ALBERTA CLIPPER
INCREASING PRECIP FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. 00Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO SHOW HIGH PRESSURE ON WED BUT THE OVERALL COLD FRONT IS SPLIT
AMONGST GUIDANCE. THE GFS REMAINS QUICKER WITH THE SFC FRONT
THROUGH THE NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC FRI COMPARED TO THE OTHER
GUIDANCE. THEREFORE CONTINUED TO BLEND WITH WPC UNTIL THE MODELS
ARE MORE IN AGREEMENT.

DETAILS...

* TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY DIVE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM CANADA AND
MOVE JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. OVERALL GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED TOWARDS WHICH IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT RAIN/SNOW WILL
OCCUR. BELIEVE THAT LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE PIKE HAVE THE
BEST CHANCE TO SEE ANY SNOW ACCUMS ONCE TEMPS DROP DUE TO
WETBULBING. STILL NEED TO WATCH THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY AS THERE IS
STILL SPREAD AMONGST THE MODELS. RIGHT NOW ANTICIPATE A QUICK 1-2
INCHES OF SNOW ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE AND ISLAND.

* WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD BEHIND THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WED INTO WED NIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER SNE. LATEST
TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THURSDAY WILL STAY DRY AS HIGH
PRESSURE IS SLOW TO MOVE OFFSHORE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE WITH MID 40S ON WEDNESDAY AND MID 50S ON THURSDAY AS WAA
INCREASE AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM.

* THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. MODERATE
  CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP OCCURRING.

QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WILL SUPPORT CHANGEABLE TEMPERATURES... MODULATED
BY THE SFC COLD FRONT THU INTO SAT. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL BE ON
THE MILD SIDE IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT FINALLY GETTING ABOVE
FREEZING FOR NEW ENGLAND. IN FACT TEMPERATURES COULD BE THE WARMEST
THEY HAVE BEEN IN OVER FOUR MONTHS FOR THE REGION. HOWEVER AS THE
FRONT PASSES EXPECT TEMPS TO RETURN TO BELOW AVG BY ABOUT 5-15F.

ANTICIPATE THIS COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE AREA EITHER THURSDAY
NIGHT/GFS OR FRIDAY/EC AND CMC. APPEARS THAT A WAVE WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT SOMETIME LATE FRIDAY OR SAT. BECAUSE OF THE TIMING
DIFFERENCE...DECIDED TO BLANKET THIS TIME FRAME WITH CHC POPS AND
HOPEFULLY WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HRS CAN PUT BETTER DETAIL INTO THE
FORECAST. CAN STAY THAT THIS SYSTEM DOES LOOK WARM SO EXPECT PRECIP
TYPE TO BE MORE OF THE RAIN FORM. HOWEVER ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
FRONT COULD SEE SOME WET FLAKES.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS
TIMEFRAME.


&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

TODAY...VFR. BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
MIDDAY TO MID-AFTERNOON. GUSTY WEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT MAY
REACH 25-30 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...VFR. GUSTY WEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT MAY REACH 25-30
KNOTS.

TUESDAY...VFR. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE ACROSS CT AND RI TOWARD
EVENING.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. MAY SEE MVFR SOUTH OF
MASS PIKE IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...VFR.

FRIDAY...MVFR IN SHOWERS...COULD SEE IFR CONDITIONS BY FRI EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY

HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...A COLD FRONT CROSSES NEW ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS TOWARD EVENING. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST
TO NEAR 25 KNOTS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. WEST WINDS TRAILING THE
FRONT WILL GUST 25-30 KNOTS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5-7 FEET ON THE
OUTER WATERS AND RHODE ISLANDS/BLOCK ISLAND SOUNDS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONTINUES ON ALL WATERS.

TONIGHT...GUSTY WEST WINDS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. SEAS OF 5-7 FEET
LINGER ON THE OUTER WATERS AND RHODE ISLAND SOUNDS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONTINUES.

TUESDAY...GUSTY WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BRIEFLY OVER THE WATERS. LINGERING SMALL CRAFTS ON THE OUTER
WATERS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY NIGHT...QUICK-MOVING SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN
WATERS. THIS WILL KEEP BOTH SEAS AND WINDS ABOVE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. THERE IS A LOW PROB OF GALES FORCE WINDS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE...ALLOWING
FOR SEAS AND WINDS TO RELAX.

FRIDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS...RESULTING IN
INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS AND SEAS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ231-232.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ233-234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ230-236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 300805
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
405 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY BRINGING A FEW
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. A FAST-MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES
SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT...POTENTIALLY BRINGING MORE
LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS. A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM MAY
APPROACH LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD FRONT CROSSING ONTARIO AND OHIO DURING THE NIGHT WILL MOVE
EAST TODAY...CROSSING NEW ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. NORTHERN
STREAM UPPER JET WILL BE IN POSITION DURING THIS TIME WITH THE
LEFT EXIT REGION OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL PROVIDE UPPER
VENTING OVERLAID ABOVE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OF THE FRONT. THIS
SHOULD SUPPORT SHOWERS. A FEW LIGHT ONES IN CENTRAL NEW YORK
OVERNIGHT MAY REACH OUR AREA THIS MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS SHOULD COME ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE TRANSITING COLD FRONT.
TIMING WOULD BE MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON WEST AND MID AFTERNOON
EAST.

TEMPERATURE PROFILES INITIALLY FAVOR SNOW. BUT EXPECTED WARMING IN
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW THIS MORNING SHOULD CHANGE THIS TO RAIN. ANY
SNOW ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE LIMITED TO AN INCH OR LESS...MOSTLY
LESS.

PRESSURE FALLS OF 1MB/HR OR MORE LEAD THIS FRONT. EXPECT
INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS DURING THE MORNING AND MIDDAY.
PRESSURES RISE BEHIND THE FRONT BUT NOT AS STRONGLY. BUT COLD
ADVECTION MAY INDUCE MIXING OF 25 KNOT GUSTS TO THE SURFACE AFTER
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES TO SUPPORT MIXING INTO THE NIGHT. WINDS
ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL BE 30-40 KNOTS...EXPECT SOME OF THIS TO MIX
TO THE SURFACE IN GUSTS. BASED ON TEMPERATURES UPSTREAM...EXPECT
LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

TUESDAY...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE WEATHER DRY MUCH OF THE DAY.
ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE RACES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT A CLIPPER LOW THAT MOVES
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES DURING THE AFTERNOON. FORECASTS
FROM THE 00Z MODEL SUITE ARE FARTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY WITH
THE ECMWF FARTHEST SOUTH. ALL MODELS BRING SOME MEASURABLE PCPN
INTO CT BY EVENING...THE GFS COVERS AREAS SOUTH OF THE MASS
PIKE...AND THE NAM HAS MEASURABLE PCPN EVERYWHERE.

TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST RAIN MOST PLACES EXCEPT SNOW IN THE
HILLS. TIMING OF THE PCPN WOULD BE AFTER 21Z. WE HAVE SHIFTED
OUR POPS FARTHER NORTH WITH CHANCE POPS REACHING TO ALONG/SOUTH OF
THE MASS PIKE BY 00Z.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
* MODERATING SPRING-LIKE TEMPS LATE THIS WEEK
* INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP DURING THE EASTER WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH AN ALBERTA
CLIPPER MOVING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. RIDGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WILL BUILD INTO NEW ENGLAND BY WED INTO THURSDAY. WESTERN TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CONUS AS A COLD FRONT REACHING THE NORTHEAST
LATE THUR THROUGH SAT. THIS SYSTEM IS ALSO AIDED BY AN UPPER LOW
CIRCLING AROUND HUDSON BAY WHICH WILL LOWER HEIGHTS IN THE NORTHEAST
BY NEXT WEEKEND.

OVERALL TREND IN THE GUIDANCE HAS LEAD TO A LOWER CONFIDENCE. MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED NORTHWARD WITH THE RUN FOR THE ALBERTA CLIPPER
INCREASING PRECIP FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. 00Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO SHOW HIGH PRESSURE ON WED BUT THE OVERALL COLD FRONT IS SPLIT
AMONGST GUIDANCE. THE GFS REMAINS QUICKER WITH THE SFC FRONT
THROUGH THE NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC FRI COMPARED TO THE OTHER
GUIDANCE. THEREFORE CONTINUED TO BLEND WITH WPC UNTIL THE MODELS
ARE MORE IN AGREEMENT.

DETAILS...

* TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY DIVE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM CANADA AND
MOVE JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. OVERALL GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED TOWARDS WHICH IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT RAIN/SNOW WILL
OCCUR. BELIEVE THAT LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE PIKE HAVE THE
BEST CHANCE TO SEE ANY SNOW ACCUMS ONCE TEMPS DROP DUE TO
WETBULBING. STILL NEED TO WATCH THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY AS THERE IS
STILL SPREAD AMONGST THE MODELS. RIGHT NOW ANTICIPATE A QUICK 1-2
INCHES OF SNOW ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE AND ISLAND.

* WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD BEHIND THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WED INTO WED NIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER SNE. LATEST
TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THURSDAY WILL STAY DRY AS HIGH
PRESSURE IS SLOW TO MOVE OFFSHORE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE WITH MID 40S ON WEDNESDAY AND MID 50S ON THURSDAY AS WAA
INCREASE AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM.

* THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. MODERATE
  CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP OCCURRING.

QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WILL SUPPORT CHANGEABLE TEMPERATURES... MODULATED
BY THE SFC COLD FRONT THU INTO SAT. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL BE ON
THE MILD SIDE IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT FINALLY GETTING ABOVE
FREEZING FOR NEW ENGLAND. IN FACT TEMPERATURES COULD BE THE WARMEST
THEY HAVE BEEN IN OVER FOUR MONTHS FOR THE REGION. HOWEVER AS THE
FRONT PASSES EXPECT TEMPS TO RETURN TO BELOW AVG BY ABOUT 5-15F.

ANTICIPATE THIS COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE AREA EITHER THURSDAY
NIGHT/GFS OR FRIDAY/EC AND CMC. APPEARS THAT A WAVE WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT SOMETIME LATE FRIDAY OR SAT. BECAUSE OF THE TIMING
DIFFERENCE...DECIDED TO BLANKET THIS TIME FRAME WITH CHC POPS AND
HOPEFULLY WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HRS CAN PUT BETTER DETAIL INTO THE
FORECAST. CAN STAY THAT THIS SYSTEM DOES LOOK WARM SO EXPECT PRECIP
TYPE TO BE MORE OF THE RAIN FORM. HOWEVER ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
FRONT COULD SEE SOME WET FLAKES.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS
TIMEFRAME.


&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

TODAY...VFR. BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
MIDDAY TO MID-AFTERNOON. GUSTY WEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT MAY
REACH 25-30 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...VFR. GUSTY WEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT MAY REACH 25-30
KNOTS.

TUESDAY...VFR. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE ACROSS CT AND RI TOWARD
EVENING.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. MAY SEE MVFR SOUTH OF
MASS PIKE IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...VFR.

FRIDAY...MVFR IN SHOWERS...COULD SEE IFR CONDITIONS BY FRI EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY

HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...A COLD FRONT CROSSES NEW ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS TOWARD EVENING. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST
TO NEAR 25 KNOTS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. WEST WINDS TRAILING THE
FRONT WILL GUST 25-30 KNOTS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5-7 FEET ON THE
OUTER WATERS AND RHODE ISLANDS/BLOCK ISLAND SOUNDS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONTINUES ON ALL WATERS.

TONIGHT...GUSTY WEST WINDS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. SEAS OF 5-7 FEET
LINGER ON THE OUTER WATERS AND RHODE ISLAND SOUNDS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONTINUES.

TUESDAY...GUSTY WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BRIEFLY OVER THE WATERS. LINGERING SMALL CRAFTS ON THE OUTER
WATERS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY NIGHT...QUICK-MOVING SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN
WATERS. THIS WILL KEEP BOTH SEAS AND WINDS ABOVE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. THERE IS A LOW PROB OF GALES FORCE WINDS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE...ALLOWING
FOR SEAS AND WINDS TO RELAX.

FRIDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS...RESULTING IN
INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS AND SEAS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ231-232.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ233-234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ230-236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KOKX 300753
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
353 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS LATE TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A QUICK MOVING LOW
ON TUE. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THEN...A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE AREA LATE
IN THE WEEK...INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MID LVL WAA AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT PRODUCING A BATCH OF RADAR
RETURNS ACROSS UPSTATE NY INTO ERN PA THAT WILL TRAVERSE THE CWA
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. 00Z KOKX SOUNDING WAS DRY WITH
ONLY 0.12 PW. LLVL MOISTURE CONFINED TO ERN LI AND CT WHERE FLOW
OFF THE OCEAN HAS PROVIDED SOME MOISTENING. ELSEWHERE...TD/S WERE
STILL IN THE TEENS. AS A RESULT...PCPN COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE
SCT AND LGT. THE COLUMN APPEARS COLD ENOUGH BASED ON THE 00Z
MODELS TO ALLOW FOR SNOW SHWRS POSSIBLE MIXED WITH RAIN THRU
12Z...THEN TRANSITIONING TO MAINLY RAIN SHWRS THRU THE MRNG HRS AS
BOTH THE BL AND MID LVLS WARM. PCPN CHCS MAINLY TIL 16Z...THEN
THEY DROP QUICKLY.

THE CDFNT OVER OH AT 7Z REACHES ORANGE COUNTY PER THE 12Z NAM
RIGHT ABOUT 18Z. IT THEN SWEEPS ACROSS THE CWA AND CLEARS THE AREA
BY 00Z. ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE COULD PRODUCE A FEW HRS OF PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES BEFORE DARK. MOSTLY CLR SKIES OVERNIGHT BUT THE DATA
SUGGESTS WIND WILL KEEPS THINGS SLIGHTLY STIRRED UP...THEREBY
KEEPING TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT. AS A RESULT...LOWS CLOSE TO
GUIDANCE WERE USED WITH MINS ABOUT 5-7 DEGREES BLW CLIMO. IF WINDS
DECOUPLE...AT LEAST 5 DEGREES WILL NEED TO BE CHOPPED OFF THE FCST
ACROSS THE OUTLYING AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
SYS CURRENTLY OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL RACE TOWARDS THE
AREA WITH THE SFC LOW REACHING THE NYC LONGITUDE APPROXIMATELY 00Z
WED. THE 00Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF ARE ALL IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SPEED...BUT THE MODELS DIFFER WRT THE EXACT N-S TRACK. THE
ECMWF WAS THE FURTHEST S...WITH THE NAM AND GFS CLUSTERED CLOSELY
WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLES ACROSS CNTRL NJ. THE SREF MEAN WAS SLIGHLY
FURTHER N. POPS FOR INCREASED TO JUST BLW LIKELY BY LATE AFTN.
THIS TRACK COMBINED WITH THE THERMAL PROFILES ALOFT WOULD SUPPORT
A COLD ENOUGH COLUMN ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA FOR SNOW. WITH THE
BL INITIALLY WARM...LGT RAIN COULD MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO SNOW AS
STEADIER/HEAVIER PCPN MOVES IN. SRN AREAS...PARTICULARLY FROM WRN
NJ ZONES THRU THE CITY AND ONTO LI...TEMPS ALOFT MAY WARM FOR A
CHANGE BACK TO RAIN...OR IT MAY EVEN REMAIN ALL RAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. LATEST 00Z
FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATING THAT ANY RAIN OR SNOW...WILL CHANGE TO
ALL SNOW SHORTLY AFTER 00Z ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AS
COLD AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. QPF TOTALS ARE GENERALLY ON THE LOW
END WITH LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. ANY PRECIPITATION WILL
TAPER OFF LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY THEN MOVES OFFSHORE
THURSDAY...WITH RETURN FLOW AND MOIST AIR QUICKLY SPREADING NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
40S.

NEXT LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE LOCAL AREA LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...WITH RAIN CHANCES CONTINUING STRAIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S AND LOWS IN
THE LOW TO MID 40S. TEMPERATURES FALL BACK TO NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WAS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...AND WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH 15Z TO 18Z.

VFR...EXCEPT WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWER AND SNOW SHOWERS WITH
LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES...11Z TO 18Z...WEST TO EAST.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING...AND INCLUDED IN A TEMPO
GROUP.

SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 10 KT...BECOMING WEST TO NORTHWEST...280 TO
300 TRUE...WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. GUSTS ALSO DEVELOP
WITH HIGHEST GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT...MOST GUSTS AROUND 20 KT. GUSTS END
THIS EVENING...00Z TO 03Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.LATE MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...VFR. LATE AFTERNOON TUESDAY
MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN DEVELOPING -RA/SN.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLE MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN -RA/SN.
.WEDNESDAY...VFR.
.THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR...WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN -RA LATE IN
IN THE DAY AND AT NIGHT. POSSIBLE LLWS.
.FRIDAY...MVFR IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SW WIND INCREASE TODAY TO SCA LVLS...THEN WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW
THIS AFTN INTO THE EVE AS A CDFNT TRACKS THRU. WINDS DIMINISH THIS
EVE...BUT SEAS REMAIN ABV SCA LVLS ON THE OCEAN. SCA COND MAY
DEVELOP AGAIN ON ALL WATERS TUE AS LOW PRES TRACKS QUICKLY INTO
THE REGION. SEAS MAY BRIEFLY TOUGH 5 FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT SUB-SMALL CRAFT LEVEL CONDITIONS THROUGH
THURSDAY AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS OVER THE REGION. WIND
GUSTS AND WAVES INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE OCEAN WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TRACE AMTS TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT ARE EXPECTED
TODAY. A FEW TENTHS OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT IS POSSIBLE TUE AND TUE
NGT. THEREAFTER...NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS
FORECAST.

RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW BANK FULL...BUT
INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT WILL CONTINUE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT INTO
THIS WEEKEND. ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY
OCCUR...COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING
IS UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS
SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-
     335-338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/JMC
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...BC/JMC
HYDROLOGY...BC/JMC



000
FXUS61 KOKX 300753
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
353 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS LATE TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A QUICK MOVING LOW
ON TUE. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THEN...A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE AREA LATE
IN THE WEEK...INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MID LVL WAA AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT PRODUCING A BATCH OF RADAR
RETURNS ACROSS UPSTATE NY INTO ERN PA THAT WILL TRAVERSE THE CWA
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. 00Z KOKX SOUNDING WAS DRY WITH
ONLY 0.12 PW. LLVL MOISTURE CONFINED TO ERN LI AND CT WHERE FLOW
OFF THE OCEAN HAS PROVIDED SOME MOISTENING. ELSEWHERE...TD/S WERE
STILL IN THE TEENS. AS A RESULT...PCPN COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE
SCT AND LGT. THE COLUMN APPEARS COLD ENOUGH BASED ON THE 00Z
MODELS TO ALLOW FOR SNOW SHWRS POSSIBLE MIXED WITH RAIN THRU
12Z...THEN TRANSITIONING TO MAINLY RAIN SHWRS THRU THE MRNG HRS AS
BOTH THE BL AND MID LVLS WARM. PCPN CHCS MAINLY TIL 16Z...THEN
THEY DROP QUICKLY.

THE CDFNT OVER OH AT 7Z REACHES ORANGE COUNTY PER THE 12Z NAM
RIGHT ABOUT 18Z. IT THEN SWEEPS ACROSS THE CWA AND CLEARS THE AREA
BY 00Z. ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE COULD PRODUCE A FEW HRS OF PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES BEFORE DARK. MOSTLY CLR SKIES OVERNIGHT BUT THE DATA
SUGGESTS WIND WILL KEEPS THINGS SLIGHTLY STIRRED UP...THEREBY
KEEPING TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT. AS A RESULT...LOWS CLOSE TO
GUIDANCE WERE USED WITH MINS ABOUT 5-7 DEGREES BLW CLIMO. IF WINDS
DECOUPLE...AT LEAST 5 DEGREES WILL NEED TO BE CHOPPED OFF THE FCST
ACROSS THE OUTLYING AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
SYS CURRENTLY OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL RACE TOWARDS THE
AREA WITH THE SFC LOW REACHING THE NYC LONGITUDE APPROXIMATELY 00Z
WED. THE 00Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF ARE ALL IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SPEED...BUT THE MODELS DIFFER WRT THE EXACT N-S TRACK. THE
ECMWF WAS THE FURTHEST S...WITH THE NAM AND GFS CLUSTERED CLOSELY
WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLES ACROSS CNTRL NJ. THE SREF MEAN WAS SLIGHLY
FURTHER N. POPS FOR INCREASED TO JUST BLW LIKELY BY LATE AFTN.
THIS TRACK COMBINED WITH THE THERMAL PROFILES ALOFT WOULD SUPPORT
A COLD ENOUGH COLUMN ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA FOR SNOW. WITH THE
BL INITIALLY WARM...LGT RAIN COULD MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO SNOW AS
STEADIER/HEAVIER PCPN MOVES IN. SRN AREAS...PARTICULARLY FROM WRN
NJ ZONES THRU THE CITY AND ONTO LI...TEMPS ALOFT MAY WARM FOR A
CHANGE BACK TO RAIN...OR IT MAY EVEN REMAIN ALL RAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. LATEST 00Z
FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATING THAT ANY RAIN OR SNOW...WILL CHANGE TO
ALL SNOW SHORTLY AFTER 00Z ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AS
COLD AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. QPF TOTALS ARE GENERALLY ON THE LOW
END WITH LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. ANY PRECIPITATION WILL
TAPER OFF LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY THEN MOVES OFFSHORE
THURSDAY...WITH RETURN FLOW AND MOIST AIR QUICKLY SPREADING NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
40S.

NEXT LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE LOCAL AREA LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...WITH RAIN CHANCES CONTINUING STRAIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S AND LOWS IN
THE LOW TO MID 40S. TEMPERATURES FALL BACK TO NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WAS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...AND WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH 15Z TO 18Z.

VFR...EXCEPT WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWER AND SNOW SHOWERS WITH
LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES...11Z TO 18Z...WEST TO EAST.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING...AND INCLUDED IN A TEMPO
GROUP.

SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 10 KT...BECOMING WEST TO NORTHWEST...280 TO
300 TRUE...WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. GUSTS ALSO DEVELOP
WITH HIGHEST GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT...MOST GUSTS AROUND 20 KT. GUSTS END
THIS EVENING...00Z TO 03Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.LATE MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...VFR. LATE AFTERNOON TUESDAY
MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN DEVELOPING -RA/SN.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLE MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN -RA/SN.
.WEDNESDAY...VFR.
.THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR...WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN -RA LATE IN
IN THE DAY AND AT NIGHT. POSSIBLE LLWS.
.FRIDAY...MVFR IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SW WIND INCREASE TODAY TO SCA LVLS...THEN WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW
THIS AFTN INTO THE EVE AS A CDFNT TRACKS THRU. WINDS DIMINISH THIS
EVE...BUT SEAS REMAIN ABV SCA LVLS ON THE OCEAN. SCA COND MAY
DEVELOP AGAIN ON ALL WATERS TUE AS LOW PRES TRACKS QUICKLY INTO
THE REGION. SEAS MAY BRIEFLY TOUGH 5 FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT SUB-SMALL CRAFT LEVEL CONDITIONS THROUGH
THURSDAY AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS OVER THE REGION. WIND
GUSTS AND WAVES INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE OCEAN WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TRACE AMTS TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT ARE EXPECTED
TODAY. A FEW TENTHS OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT IS POSSIBLE TUE AND TUE
NGT. THEREAFTER...NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS
FORECAST.

RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW BANK FULL...BUT
INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT WILL CONTINUE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT INTO
THIS WEEKEND. ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY
OCCUR...COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING
IS UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS
SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-
     335-338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/JMC
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...BC/JMC
HYDROLOGY...BC/JMC




000
FXUS61 KBOX 300705
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
305 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY BRINGING A FEW
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. A FAST-MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES
SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT...POTENTIALLY BRINGING MORE
LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS. A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM MAY
APPROACH LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD FRONT CROSSING ONTARIO AND OHIO DURING THE NIGHT WILL MOVE
EAST TODAY...CROSSING NEW ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. NORTHERN
STREAM UPPER JET WILL BE IN POSITION DURING THIS TIME WITH THE
LEFT EXIT REGION OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL PROVIDE UPPER
VENTING OVERLAID ABOVE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OF THE FRONT. THIS
SHOULD SUPPORT SHOWERS. A FEW LIGHT ONES IN CENTRAL NEW YORK
OVERNIGHT MAY REACH OUR AREA THIS MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS SHOULD COME ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE TRANSITING COLD FRONT.
TIMING WOULD BE MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON WEST AND MID AFTERNOON
EAST.

TEMPERATURE PROFILES INITIALLY FAVOR SNOW. BUT EXPECTED WARMING IN
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW THIS MORNING SHOULD CHANGE THIS TO RAIN. ANY
SNOW ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE LIMITED TO AN INCH OR LESS...MOSTLY
LESS.

PRESSURE FALLS OF 1MB/HR OR MORE LEAD THIS FRONT. EXPECT
INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS DURING THE MORNING AND MIDDAY.
PRESSURES RISE BEHIND THE FRONT BUT NOT AS STRONGLY. BUT COLD
ADVECTION MAY INDUCE MIXING OF 25 KNOT GUSTS TO THE SURFACE AFTER
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES TO SUPPORT MIXING INTO THE NIGHT. WINDS
ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL BE 30-40 KNOTS...EXPECT SOME OF THIS TO MIX
TO THE SURFACE IN GUSTS. BASED ON TEMPERATURES UPSTREAM...EXPECT
LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

TUESDAY...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE WEATHER DRY MUCH OF THE DAY.
ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE RACES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT A CLIPPER LOW THAT MOVES
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES DURING THE AFTERNOON. FORECASTS
FROM THE 00Z MODEL SUITE ARE FARTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY WITH
THE ECMWF FARTHEST SOUTH. ALL MODELS BRING SOME MEASUREABLE PCPN
INTO CT BY EVENING...THE GFS COVERS AREAS SOUTH OF THE MASS
PIKE...AND THE NAM HAS MEASURABLE PCPN EVERYWHERE.

TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST RAIN MOST PLACES EXCEPT SNOW IN THE
HILLS. TIMING OF THE PCPN WOULD BE AFTER 21Z. WE HAVE SHIFTED
OUR POPS FARTHER NORTH WITH CHANCE POPS REACHING TO ALONG/SOUTH OF
THE MASS PIKE BY 00Z.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* ALBERTA CLIPPER PASSES BY TO OUR SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT
* MODERATING...SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES LATE THIS WEEK
* INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION SOMETIME DURING EASTER
  WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

NORTHWEST FLOW TO START OVER THE REGION TUESDAY...LASTING INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THIS
FLOW...ALLOWING FOR THE ACTIVE PATTERN TO CONTINUE. 29/12Z MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT...WITH SOME DISCREPANCIES
WITH A CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AND WITH A
MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE LATE THIS WEEK. WILL CONTINUE TO A
FAVOR A CONSENSUS APPROACH UNTIL THESE DETAILS OF THESE SYSTEMS
COME INTO BETTER FOCUS.

DETAILS...

* TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY DIVE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM CANADA AND
MOVE JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE MAJORITY 29/12Z
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP THIS STORM WELL TO OUR SOUTH...WITH
ALMOST NO IMPACT AT ALL ON OUR WEATHER. THE CMC IS THE SLOWEST AND
FARTHEST NORTH WITH THIS SYSTEM. THAT SAID...WILL TREND THIS
PORTION OF THE FORECAST DRIER THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS...WITH
MINIMAL IMPACT ON SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

SINCE THE PASSAGE OF THIS STORM WILL BE AT NIGHT...THAT RAISES THE
POSSIBILITY FOR MORE SNOWFALL IF TEMPERATURES LOWER FAST ENOUGH.
WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE TRENDS WITH THIS SYSTEM SINCE
IT COULD PRODUCE A QUICK 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD THE TRACK BE FARTHER NORTH.

* WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

A WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD BEHIND A CLIPPER SYSTEM WED INTO WED
NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. LATEST TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE IS FOR MOST
OF THE DAY THURSDAY TO REMAIN DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BREAKS
DOWN.

* THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. MODERATE
  CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION OCCURRING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS SYSTEM WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA EITHER THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY. IT APPEARS THERE COULD
BE A FEW WAVES WHICH DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT...SO DECIDED TO NOT
TRY TO TIME PRECIPITATION TO SPECIFICALLY. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
SHOULD BE ABOVE AVERAGE. TEMPERATURES WILL TURN COLDER BEHIND A
FRONTAL PASSAGE BY SATURDAY OR SUNDAY.

* SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

A WEAK TROUGH LINGERS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THE QUESTION WILL BE
THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IT HAS TO WORK WITH. KEPT THIS PORTION OF
THE FORECAST DRY...FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

TODAY...VFR. BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
MIDDAY TO MID-AFTERNOON. GUSTY WEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT MAY
REACH 25-30 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...VFR. GUSTY WEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT MAY REACH 25-30
KNOTS.

TUESDAY...VFR. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE ACROSS CT AND RI TOWARD
EVENING.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. MAY SEE MVFR SOUTH OF
MASS PIKE IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...VFR.

FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED MVFR IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY

HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...A COLD FRONT CROSSES NEW ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS TOWARD EVENING. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST
TO NEAR 25 KNOTS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. WEST WINDS TRAILING THE
FRONT WILL GUST 25-30 KNOTS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5-7 FEET ON THE
OUTER WATERS AND RHODE ISLANDS/BLOCK ISLAND SOUNDS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONTINUES ON ALL WATERS.

TONIGHT...GUSTY WEST WINDS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. SEAS OF 5-7 FEET
LINGER ON THE OUTER WATERS AND RHODE ISLAND SOUNDS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONTINUES.

TUESDAY...GUSTY WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BRIEFLY OVER THE WATERS. LINGERING SMALL CRAFTS ON THE OUTER
WATERS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY NIGHT...QUICK-MOVING SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN
WATERS. THIS WILL KEEP BOTH SEAS AND WINDS ABOVE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE...ALLOWING
FOR SEAS AND WINDS TO RELAX.

FRIDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS...RESULTING IN
INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS AND SEAS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ230-
     236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/BELK
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...WTB/BELK
MARINE...WTB/BELK



000
FXUS61 KBOX 300705
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
305 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY BRINGING A FEW
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. A FAST-MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES
SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT...POTENTIALLY BRINGING MORE
LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS. A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM MAY
APPROACH LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD FRONT CROSSING ONTARIO AND OHIO DURING THE NIGHT WILL MOVE
EAST TODAY...CROSSING NEW ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. NORTHERN
STREAM UPPER JET WILL BE IN POSITION DURING THIS TIME WITH THE
LEFT EXIT REGION OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL PROVIDE UPPER
VENTING OVERLAID ABOVE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OF THE FRONT. THIS
SHOULD SUPPORT SHOWERS. A FEW LIGHT ONES IN CENTRAL NEW YORK
OVERNIGHT MAY REACH OUR AREA THIS MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS SHOULD COME ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE TRANSITING COLD FRONT.
TIMING WOULD BE MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON WEST AND MID AFTERNOON
EAST.

TEMPERATURE PROFILES INITIALLY FAVOR SNOW. BUT EXPECTED WARMING IN
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW THIS MORNING SHOULD CHANGE THIS TO RAIN. ANY
SNOW ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE LIMITED TO AN INCH OR LESS...MOSTLY
LESS.

PRESSURE FALLS OF 1MB/HR OR MORE LEAD THIS FRONT. EXPECT
INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS DURING THE MORNING AND MIDDAY.
PRESSURES RISE BEHIND THE FRONT BUT NOT AS STRONGLY. BUT COLD
ADVECTION MAY INDUCE MIXING OF 25 KNOT GUSTS TO THE SURFACE AFTER
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES TO SUPPORT MIXING INTO THE NIGHT. WINDS
ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL BE 30-40 KNOTS...EXPECT SOME OF THIS TO MIX
TO THE SURFACE IN GUSTS. BASED ON TEMPERATURES UPSTREAM...EXPECT
LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

TUESDAY...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE WEATHER DRY MUCH OF THE DAY.
ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE RACES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT A CLIPPER LOW THAT MOVES
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES DURING THE AFTERNOON. FORECASTS
FROM THE 00Z MODEL SUITE ARE FARTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY WITH
THE ECMWF FARTHEST SOUTH. ALL MODELS BRING SOME MEASUREABLE PCPN
INTO CT BY EVENING...THE GFS COVERS AREAS SOUTH OF THE MASS
PIKE...AND THE NAM HAS MEASURABLE PCPN EVERYWHERE.

TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST RAIN MOST PLACES EXCEPT SNOW IN THE
HILLS. TIMING OF THE PCPN WOULD BE AFTER 21Z. WE HAVE SHIFTED
OUR POPS FARTHER NORTH WITH CHANCE POPS REACHING TO ALONG/SOUTH OF
THE MASS PIKE BY 00Z.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* ALBERTA CLIPPER PASSES BY TO OUR SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT
* MODERATING...SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES LATE THIS WEEK
* INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION SOMETIME DURING EASTER
  WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

NORTHWEST FLOW TO START OVER THE REGION TUESDAY...LASTING INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THIS
FLOW...ALLOWING FOR THE ACTIVE PATTERN TO CONTINUE. 29/12Z MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT...WITH SOME DISCREPANCIES
WITH A CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AND WITH A
MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE LATE THIS WEEK. WILL CONTINUE TO A
FAVOR A CONSENSUS APPROACH UNTIL THESE DETAILS OF THESE SYSTEMS
COME INTO BETTER FOCUS.

DETAILS...

* TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY DIVE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM CANADA AND
MOVE JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE MAJORITY 29/12Z
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP THIS STORM WELL TO OUR SOUTH...WITH
ALMOST NO IMPACT AT ALL ON OUR WEATHER. THE CMC IS THE SLOWEST AND
FARTHEST NORTH WITH THIS SYSTEM. THAT SAID...WILL TREND THIS
PORTION OF THE FORECAST DRIER THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS...WITH
MINIMAL IMPACT ON SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

SINCE THE PASSAGE OF THIS STORM WILL BE AT NIGHT...THAT RAISES THE
POSSIBILITY FOR MORE SNOWFALL IF TEMPERATURES LOWER FAST ENOUGH.
WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE TRENDS WITH THIS SYSTEM SINCE
IT COULD PRODUCE A QUICK 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD THE TRACK BE FARTHER NORTH.

* WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

A WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD BEHIND A CLIPPER SYSTEM WED INTO WED
NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. LATEST TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE IS FOR MOST
OF THE DAY THURSDAY TO REMAIN DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BREAKS
DOWN.

* THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. MODERATE
  CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION OCCURRING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS SYSTEM WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA EITHER THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY. IT APPEARS THERE COULD
BE A FEW WAVES WHICH DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT...SO DECIDED TO NOT
TRY TO TIME PRECIPITATION TO SPECIFICALLY. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
SHOULD BE ABOVE AVERAGE. TEMPERATURES WILL TURN COLDER BEHIND A
FRONTAL PASSAGE BY SATURDAY OR SUNDAY.

* SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

A WEAK TROUGH LINGERS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THE QUESTION WILL BE
THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IT HAS TO WORK WITH. KEPT THIS PORTION OF
THE FORECAST DRY...FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

TODAY...VFR. BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
MIDDAY TO MID-AFTERNOON. GUSTY WEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT MAY
REACH 25-30 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...VFR. GUSTY WEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT MAY REACH 25-30
KNOTS.

TUESDAY...VFR. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE ACROSS CT AND RI TOWARD
EVENING.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. MAY SEE MVFR SOUTH OF
MASS PIKE IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...VFR.

FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED MVFR IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY

HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...A COLD FRONT CROSSES NEW ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS TOWARD EVENING. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST
TO NEAR 25 KNOTS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. WEST WINDS TRAILING THE
FRONT WILL GUST 25-30 KNOTS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5-7 FEET ON THE
OUTER WATERS AND RHODE ISLANDS/BLOCK ISLAND SOUNDS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONTINUES ON ALL WATERS.

TONIGHT...GUSTY WEST WINDS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. SEAS OF 5-7 FEET
LINGER ON THE OUTER WATERS AND RHODE ISLAND SOUNDS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONTINUES.

TUESDAY...GUSTY WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BRIEFLY OVER THE WATERS. LINGERING SMALL CRAFTS ON THE OUTER
WATERS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY NIGHT...QUICK-MOVING SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN
WATERS. THIS WILL KEEP BOTH SEAS AND WINDS ABOVE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE...ALLOWING
FOR SEAS AND WINDS TO RELAX.

FRIDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS...RESULTING IN
INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS AND SEAS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ230-
     236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/BELK
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...WTB/BELK
MARINE...WTB/BELK




000
FXUS61 KBOX 300705
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
305 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY BRINGING A FEW
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. A FAST-MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES
SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT...POTENTIALLY BRINGING MORE
LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS. A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM MAY
APPROACH LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD FRONT CROSSING ONTARIO AND OHIO DURING THE NIGHT WILL MOVE
EAST TODAY...CROSSING NEW ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. NORTHERN
STREAM UPPER JET WILL BE IN POSITION DURING THIS TIME WITH THE
LEFT EXIT REGION OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL PROVIDE UPPER
VENTING OVERLAID ABOVE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OF THE FRONT. THIS
SHOULD SUPPORT SHOWERS. A FEW LIGHT ONES IN CENTRAL NEW YORK
OVERNIGHT MAY REACH OUR AREA THIS MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS SHOULD COME ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE TRANSITING COLD FRONT.
TIMING WOULD BE MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON WEST AND MID AFTERNOON
EAST.

TEMPERATURE PROFILES INITIALLY FAVOR SNOW. BUT EXPECTED WARMING IN
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW THIS MORNING SHOULD CHANGE THIS TO RAIN. ANY
SNOW ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE LIMITED TO AN INCH OR LESS...MOSTLY
LESS.

PRESSURE FALLS OF 1MB/HR OR MORE LEAD THIS FRONT. EXPECT
INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS DURING THE MORNING AND MIDDAY.
PRESSURES RISE BEHIND THE FRONT BUT NOT AS STRONGLY. BUT COLD
ADVECTION MAY INDUCE MIXING OF 25 KNOT GUSTS TO THE SURFACE AFTER
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES TO SUPPORT MIXING INTO THE NIGHT. WINDS
ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL BE 30-40 KNOTS...EXPECT SOME OF THIS TO MIX
TO THE SURFACE IN GUSTS. BASED ON TEMPERATURES UPSTREAM...EXPECT
LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

TUESDAY...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE WEATHER DRY MUCH OF THE DAY.
ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE RACES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT A CLIPPER LOW THAT MOVES
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES DURING THE AFTERNOON. FORECASTS
FROM THE 00Z MODEL SUITE ARE FARTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY WITH
THE ECMWF FARTHEST SOUTH. ALL MODELS BRING SOME MEASUREABLE PCPN
INTO CT BY EVENING...THE GFS COVERS AREAS SOUTH OF THE MASS
PIKE...AND THE NAM HAS MEASURABLE PCPN EVERYWHERE.

TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST RAIN MOST PLACES EXCEPT SNOW IN THE
HILLS. TIMING OF THE PCPN WOULD BE AFTER 21Z. WE HAVE SHIFTED
OUR POPS FARTHER NORTH WITH CHANCE POPS REACHING TO ALONG/SOUTH OF
THE MASS PIKE BY 00Z.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* ALBERTA CLIPPER PASSES BY TO OUR SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT
* MODERATING...SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES LATE THIS WEEK
* INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION SOMETIME DURING EASTER
  WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

NORTHWEST FLOW TO START OVER THE REGION TUESDAY...LASTING INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THIS
FLOW...ALLOWING FOR THE ACTIVE PATTERN TO CONTINUE. 29/12Z MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT...WITH SOME DISCREPANCIES
WITH A CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AND WITH A
MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE LATE THIS WEEK. WILL CONTINUE TO A
FAVOR A CONSENSUS APPROACH UNTIL THESE DETAILS OF THESE SYSTEMS
COME INTO BETTER FOCUS.

DETAILS...

* TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY DIVE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM CANADA AND
MOVE JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE MAJORITY 29/12Z
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP THIS STORM WELL TO OUR SOUTH...WITH
ALMOST NO IMPACT AT ALL ON OUR WEATHER. THE CMC IS THE SLOWEST AND
FARTHEST NORTH WITH THIS SYSTEM. THAT SAID...WILL TREND THIS
PORTION OF THE FORECAST DRIER THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS...WITH
MINIMAL IMPACT ON SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

SINCE THE PASSAGE OF THIS STORM WILL BE AT NIGHT...THAT RAISES THE
POSSIBILITY FOR MORE SNOWFALL IF TEMPERATURES LOWER FAST ENOUGH.
WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE TRENDS WITH THIS SYSTEM SINCE
IT COULD PRODUCE A QUICK 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD THE TRACK BE FARTHER NORTH.

* WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

A WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD BEHIND A CLIPPER SYSTEM WED INTO WED
NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. LATEST TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE IS FOR MOST
OF THE DAY THURSDAY TO REMAIN DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BREAKS
DOWN.

* THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. MODERATE
  CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION OCCURRING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS SYSTEM WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA EITHER THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY. IT APPEARS THERE COULD
BE A FEW WAVES WHICH DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT...SO DECIDED TO NOT
TRY TO TIME PRECIPITATION TO SPECIFICALLY. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
SHOULD BE ABOVE AVERAGE. TEMPERATURES WILL TURN COLDER BEHIND A
FRONTAL PASSAGE BY SATURDAY OR SUNDAY.

* SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

A WEAK TROUGH LINGERS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THE QUESTION WILL BE
THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IT HAS TO WORK WITH. KEPT THIS PORTION OF
THE FORECAST DRY...FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

TODAY...VFR. BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
MIDDAY TO MID-AFTERNOON. GUSTY WEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT MAY
REACH 25-30 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...VFR. GUSTY WEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT MAY REACH 25-30
KNOTS.

TUESDAY...VFR. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE ACROSS CT AND RI TOWARD
EVENING.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. MAY SEE MVFR SOUTH OF
MASS PIKE IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...VFR.

FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED MVFR IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY

HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...A COLD FRONT CROSSES NEW ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS TOWARD EVENING. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST
TO NEAR 25 KNOTS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. WEST WINDS TRAILING THE
FRONT WILL GUST 25-30 KNOTS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5-7 FEET ON THE
OUTER WATERS AND RHODE ISLANDS/BLOCK ISLAND SOUNDS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONTINUES ON ALL WATERS.

TONIGHT...GUSTY WEST WINDS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. SEAS OF 5-7 FEET
LINGER ON THE OUTER WATERS AND RHODE ISLAND SOUNDS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONTINUES.

TUESDAY...GUSTY WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BRIEFLY OVER THE WATERS. LINGERING SMALL CRAFTS ON THE OUTER
WATERS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY NIGHT...QUICK-MOVING SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN
WATERS. THIS WILL KEEP BOTH SEAS AND WINDS ABOVE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE...ALLOWING
FOR SEAS AND WINDS TO RELAX.

FRIDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS...RESULTING IN
INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS AND SEAS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ230-
     236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/BELK
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...WTB/BELK
MARINE...WTB/BELK



000
FXUS61 KBOX 300703
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
303 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY BRINGING A FEW
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. A FAST-MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES
SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT...POTENTIALLY BRINGING MORE
LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS. A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM MAY
APPROACH LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...

COLD FRONT CROSSING ONTARIO AND OHIO DURING THE NIGHT WILL MOVE
EAST TODAY...CROSSING NEW ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. NORTHERN
STREAM UPPER JET WILL BE IN POSITION DURING THIS TIME WITH THE
LEFT EXIT REGION OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL PROVIDE UPPER
VENTING OVERLAID ABOVE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OF THE FRONT. THIS
SHOULD SUPPORT SHOWERS. A FEW LIGHT ONES IN CENTRAL NEW YORK
OVERNIGHT MAY REACH OUR AREA THIS MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS SHOULD COME ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE TRANSITING COLD FRONT.
TIMING WOULD BE MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON WEST AND MID AFTERNOON
EAST.

TEMPERATURE PROFILES INITIALLY FAVOR SNOW. BUT EXPECTED WARMING IN
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW THIS MORNING SHOULD CHANGE THIS TO RAIN. ANY
SNOW ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE LIMITED TO AN INCH OR LESS...MOSTLY
LESS.

PRESSURE FALLS OF 1MB/HR OR MORE LEAD THIS FRONT. EXPECT
INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS DURING THE MORNING AND MIDDAY.
PRESSURES RISE BEHIND THE FRONT BUT NOT AS STRONGLY. BUT COLD
ADVECTION MAY INDUCE MIXING OF 25 KNOT GUSTS TO THE SURFACE AFTER
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...

TONIGHT...
COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES TO SUPPORT MIXING INTO THE NIGHT. WINDS
ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL BE 30-40 KNOTS...EXPECT SOME OF THIS TO MIX
TO THE SURFACE IN GUSTS. BASED ON TEMPERATURES UPSTREAM...EXPECT
LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

TUESDAY...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE WEATHER DRY MUCH OF THE DAY.
ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE RACES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT A CLIPPER LOW THAT MOVES
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES DURING THE AFTERNOON. FORECASTS
FROM THE 00Z MODEL SUITE ARE FARTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY WITH
THE ECMWF FARTHEST SOUTH. ALL MODELS BRING SOME MEASUREABLE PCPN
INTO CT BY EVENING...THE GFS COVERS AREAS SOUTH OF THE MASS
PIKE...AND THE NAM HAS MEASURABLE PCPN EVERYWHERE.

TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST RAIN MOST PLACES EXCEPT SNOW IN THE
HILLS. TIMING OF THE PCPN WOULD BE AFTER 21Z. WE HAVE SHIFTED
OUR POPS FARTHER NORTH WITH CHANCE POPS REACHING TO ALONG/SOUTH OF
THE MASS PIKE BY 00Z.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* ALBERTA CLIPPER PASSES BY TO OUR SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT
* MODERATING...SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES LATE THIS WEEK
* INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION SOMETIME DURING EASTER
  WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

NORTHWEST FLOW TO START OVER THE REGION TUESDAY...LASTING INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THIS
FLOW...ALLOWING FOR THE ACTIVE PATTERN TO CONTINUE. 29/12Z MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT...WITH SOME DISCREPANCIES
WITH A CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AND WITH A
MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE LATE THIS WEEK. WILL CONTINUE TO A
FAVOR A CONSENSUS APPROACH UNTIL THESE DETAILS OF THESE SYSTEMS
COME INTO BETTER FOCUS.

DETAILS...

* TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY DIVE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM CANADA AND
MOVE JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE MAJORITY 29/12Z
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP THIS STORM WELL TO OUR SOUTH...WITH
ALMOST NO IMPACT AT ALL ON OUR WEATHER. THE CMC IS THE SLOWEST AND
FARTHEST NORTH WITH THIS SYSTEM. THAT SAID...WILL TREND THIS
PORTION OF THE FORECAST DRIER THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS...WITH
MINIMAL IMPACT ON SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

SINCE THE PASSAGE OF THIS STORM WILL BE AT NIGHT...THAT RAISES THE
POSSIBILITY FOR MORE SNOWFALL IF TEMPERATURES LOWER FAST ENOUGH.
WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE TRENDS WITH THIS SYSTEM SINCE
IT COULD PRODUCE A QUICK 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD THE TRACK BE FARTHER NORTH.

* WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

A WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD BEHIND A CLIPPER SYSTEM WED INTO WED
NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. LATEST TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE IS FOR MOST
OF THE DAY THURSDAY TO REMAIN DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BREAKS
DOWN.

* THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. MODERATE
  CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION OCCURRING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS SYSTEM WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA EITHER THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY. IT APPEARS THERE COULD
BE A FEW WAVES WHICH DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT...SO DECIDED TO NOT
TRY TO TIME PRECIPITATION TO SPECIFICALLY. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
SHOULD BE ABOVE AVERAGE. TEMPERATURES WILL TURN COLDER BEHIND A
FRONTAL PASSAGE BY SATURDAY OR SUNDAY.

* SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

A WEAK TROUGH LINGERS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THE QUESTION WILL BE
THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IT HAS TO WORK WITH. KEPT THIS PORTION OF
THE FORECAST DRY...FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

TODAY...VFR. BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
MIDDAY TO MID-AFTERNOON. GUSTY WEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT MAY
REACH 25-30 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...VFR. GUSTY WEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT MAY REACH 25-30
KNOTS.

TUESDAY...VFR. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE ACROSS CT AND RI TOWARD
EVENING.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. MAY SEE MVFR SOUTH OF
MASS PIKE IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...VFR.

FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED MVFR IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY

HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...A COLD FRONT CROSSES NEW ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS TOWARD EVENING. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST
TO NEAR 25 KNOTS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. WEST WINDS TRAILING THE
FRONT WILL GUST 25-30 KNOTS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5-7 FEET ON THE
OUTER WATERS AND RHODE ISLANDS/BLOCK ISLAND SOUNDS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONTINUES ON ALL WATERS.

TONIGHT...GUSTY WEST WINDS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. SEAS OF 5-7 FEET
LINGER ON THE OUTER WATERS AND RHODE ISLAND SOUNDS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONTINUES.

TUESDAY...GUSTY WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BRIEFLY OVER THE WATERS. LINGERING SMALL CRAFTS ON THE OUTER
WATERS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY NIGHT...QUICK-MOVING SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN
WATERS. THIS WILL KEEP BOTH SEAS AND WINDS ABOVE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE...ALLOWING
FOR SEAS AND WINDS TO RELAX.

FRIDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS...RESULTING IN
INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS AND SEAS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ230-236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/BELK
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...WTB/BELK
MARINE...BELK/RLG



000
FXUS61 KBOX 300703
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
303 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY BRINGING A FEW
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. A FAST-MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES
SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT...POTENTIALLY BRINGING MORE
LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS. A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM MAY
APPROACH LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...

COLD FRONT CROSSING ONTARIO AND OHIO DURING THE NIGHT WILL MOVE
EAST TODAY...CROSSING NEW ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. NORTHERN
STREAM UPPER JET WILL BE IN POSITION DURING THIS TIME WITH THE
LEFT EXIT REGION OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL PROVIDE UPPER
VENTING OVERLAID ABOVE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OF THE FRONT. THIS
SHOULD SUPPORT SHOWERS. A FEW LIGHT ONES IN CENTRAL NEW YORK
OVERNIGHT MAY REACH OUR AREA THIS MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS SHOULD COME ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE TRANSITING COLD FRONT.
TIMING WOULD BE MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON WEST AND MID AFTERNOON
EAST.

TEMPERATURE PROFILES INITIALLY FAVOR SNOW. BUT EXPECTED WARMING IN
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW THIS MORNING SHOULD CHANGE THIS TO RAIN. ANY
SNOW ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE LIMITED TO AN INCH OR LESS...MOSTLY
LESS.

PRESSURE FALLS OF 1MB/HR OR MORE LEAD THIS FRONT. EXPECT
INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS DURING THE MORNING AND MIDDAY.
PRESSURES RISE BEHIND THE FRONT BUT NOT AS STRONGLY. BUT COLD
ADVECTION MAY INDUCE MIXING OF 25 KNOT GUSTS TO THE SURFACE AFTER
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...

TONIGHT...
COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES TO SUPPORT MIXING INTO THE NIGHT. WINDS
ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL BE 30-40 KNOTS...EXPECT SOME OF THIS TO MIX
TO THE SURFACE IN GUSTS. BASED ON TEMPERATURES UPSTREAM...EXPECT
LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

TUESDAY...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE WEATHER DRY MUCH OF THE DAY.
ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE RACES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT A CLIPPER LOW THAT MOVES
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES DURING THE AFTERNOON. FORECASTS
FROM THE 00Z MODEL SUITE ARE FARTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY WITH
THE ECMWF FARTHEST SOUTH. ALL MODELS BRING SOME MEASUREABLE PCPN
INTO CT BY EVENING...THE GFS COVERS AREAS SOUTH OF THE MASS
PIKE...AND THE NAM HAS MEASURABLE PCPN EVERYWHERE.

TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST RAIN MOST PLACES EXCEPT SNOW IN THE
HILLS. TIMING OF THE PCPN WOULD BE AFTER 21Z. WE HAVE SHIFTED
OUR POPS FARTHER NORTH WITH CHANCE POPS REACHING TO ALONG/SOUTH OF
THE MASS PIKE BY 00Z.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* ALBERTA CLIPPER PASSES BY TO OUR SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT
* MODERATING...SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES LATE THIS WEEK
* INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION SOMETIME DURING EASTER
  WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

NORTHWEST FLOW TO START OVER THE REGION TUESDAY...LASTING INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THIS
FLOW...ALLOWING FOR THE ACTIVE PATTERN TO CONTINUE. 29/12Z MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT...WITH SOME DISCREPANCIES
WITH A CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AND WITH A
MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE LATE THIS WEEK. WILL CONTINUE TO A
FAVOR A CONSENSUS APPROACH UNTIL THESE DETAILS OF THESE SYSTEMS
COME INTO BETTER FOCUS.

DETAILS...

* TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY DIVE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM CANADA AND
MOVE JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE MAJORITY 29/12Z
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP THIS STORM WELL TO OUR SOUTH...WITH
ALMOST NO IMPACT AT ALL ON OUR WEATHER. THE CMC IS THE SLOWEST AND
FARTHEST NORTH WITH THIS SYSTEM. THAT SAID...WILL TREND THIS
PORTION OF THE FORECAST DRIER THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS...WITH
MINIMAL IMPACT ON SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

SINCE THE PASSAGE OF THIS STORM WILL BE AT NIGHT...THAT RAISES THE
POSSIBILITY FOR MORE SNOWFALL IF TEMPERATURES LOWER FAST ENOUGH.
WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE TRENDS WITH THIS SYSTEM SINCE
IT COULD PRODUCE A QUICK 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD THE TRACK BE FARTHER NORTH.

* WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

A WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD BEHIND A CLIPPER SYSTEM WED INTO WED
NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. LATEST TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE IS FOR MOST
OF THE DAY THURSDAY TO REMAIN DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BREAKS
DOWN.

* THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. MODERATE
  CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION OCCURRING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS SYSTEM WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA EITHER THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY. IT APPEARS THERE COULD
BE A FEW WAVES WHICH DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT...SO DECIDED TO NOT
TRY TO TIME PRECIPITATION TO SPECIFICALLY. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
SHOULD BE ABOVE AVERAGE. TEMPERATURES WILL TURN COLDER BEHIND A
FRONTAL PASSAGE BY SATURDAY OR SUNDAY.

* SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

A WEAK TROUGH LINGERS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THE QUESTION WILL BE
THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IT HAS TO WORK WITH. KEPT THIS PORTION OF
THE FORECAST DRY...FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

TODAY...VFR. BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
MIDDAY TO MID-AFTERNOON. GUSTY WEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT MAY
REACH 25-30 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...VFR. GUSTY WEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT MAY REACH 25-30
KNOTS.

TUESDAY...VFR. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE ACROSS CT AND RI TOWARD
EVENING.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. MAY SEE MVFR SOUTH OF
MASS PIKE IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...VFR.

FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED MVFR IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY

HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...A COLD FRONT CROSSES NEW ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS TOWARD EVENING. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST
TO NEAR 25 KNOTS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. WEST WINDS TRAILING THE
FRONT WILL GUST 25-30 KNOTS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5-7 FEET ON THE
OUTER WATERS AND RHODE ISLANDS/BLOCK ISLAND SOUNDS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONTINUES ON ALL WATERS.

TONIGHT...GUSTY WEST WINDS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. SEAS OF 5-7 FEET
LINGER ON THE OUTER WATERS AND RHODE ISLAND SOUNDS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONTINUES.

TUESDAY...GUSTY WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BRIEFLY OVER THE WATERS. LINGERING SMALL CRAFTS ON THE OUTER
WATERS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY NIGHT...QUICK-MOVING SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN
WATERS. THIS WILL KEEP BOTH SEAS AND WINDS ABOVE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE...ALLOWING
FOR SEAS AND WINDS TO RELAX.

FRIDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS...RESULTING IN
INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS AND SEAS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ230-236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/BELK
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...WTB/BELK
MARINE...BELK/RLG




000
FXUS61 KBOX 300703
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
303 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY BRINGING A FEW
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. A FAST-MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES
SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT...POTENTIALLY BRINGING MORE
LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS. A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM MAY
APPROACH LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...

COLD FRONT CROSSING ONTARIO AND OHIO DURING THE NIGHT WILL MOVE
EAST TODAY...CROSSING NEW ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. NORTHERN
STREAM UPPER JET WILL BE IN POSITION DURING THIS TIME WITH THE
LEFT EXIT REGION OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL PROVIDE UPPER
VENTING OVERLAID ABOVE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OF THE FRONT. THIS
SHOULD SUPPORT SHOWERS. A FEW LIGHT ONES IN CENTRAL NEW YORK
OVERNIGHT MAY REACH OUR AREA THIS MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS SHOULD COME ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE TRANSITING COLD FRONT.
TIMING WOULD BE MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON WEST AND MID AFTERNOON
EAST.

TEMPERATURE PROFILES INITIALLY FAVOR SNOW. BUT EXPECTED WARMING IN
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW THIS MORNING SHOULD CHANGE THIS TO RAIN. ANY
SNOW ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE LIMITED TO AN INCH OR LESS...MOSTLY
LESS.

PRESSURE FALLS OF 1MB/HR OR MORE LEAD THIS FRONT. EXPECT
INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS DURING THE MORNING AND MIDDAY.
PRESSURES RISE BEHIND THE FRONT BUT NOT AS STRONGLY. BUT COLD
ADVECTION MAY INDUCE MIXING OF 25 KNOT GUSTS TO THE SURFACE AFTER
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...

TONIGHT...
COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES TO SUPPORT MIXING INTO THE NIGHT. WINDS
ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL BE 30-40 KNOTS...EXPECT SOME OF THIS TO MIX
TO THE SURFACE IN GUSTS. BASED ON TEMPERATURES UPSTREAM...EXPECT
LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

TUESDAY...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE WEATHER DRY MUCH OF THE DAY.
ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE RACES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT A CLIPPER LOW THAT MOVES
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES DURING THE AFTERNOON. FORECASTS
FROM THE 00Z MODEL SUITE ARE FARTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY WITH
THE ECMWF FARTHEST SOUTH. ALL MODELS BRING SOME MEASUREABLE PCPN
INTO CT BY EVENING...THE GFS COVERS AREAS SOUTH OF THE MASS
PIKE...AND THE NAM HAS MEASURABLE PCPN EVERYWHERE.

TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST RAIN MOST PLACES EXCEPT SNOW IN THE
HILLS. TIMING OF THE PCPN WOULD BE AFTER 21Z. WE HAVE SHIFTED
OUR POPS FARTHER NORTH WITH CHANCE POPS REACHING TO ALONG/SOUTH OF
THE MASS PIKE BY 00Z.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* ALBERTA CLIPPER PASSES BY TO OUR SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT
* MODERATING...SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES LATE THIS WEEK
* INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION SOMETIME DURING EASTER
  WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

NORTHWEST FLOW TO START OVER THE REGION TUESDAY...LASTING INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THIS
FLOW...ALLOWING FOR THE ACTIVE PATTERN TO CONTINUE. 29/12Z MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT...WITH SOME DISCREPANCIES
WITH A CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AND WITH A
MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE LATE THIS WEEK. WILL CONTINUE TO A
FAVOR A CONSENSUS APPROACH UNTIL THESE DETAILS OF THESE SYSTEMS
COME INTO BETTER FOCUS.

DETAILS...

* TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY DIVE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM CANADA AND
MOVE JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE MAJORITY 29/12Z
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP THIS STORM WELL TO OUR SOUTH...WITH
ALMOST NO IMPACT AT ALL ON OUR WEATHER. THE CMC IS THE SLOWEST AND
FARTHEST NORTH WITH THIS SYSTEM. THAT SAID...WILL TREND THIS
PORTION OF THE FORECAST DRIER THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS...WITH
MINIMAL IMPACT ON SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

SINCE THE PASSAGE OF THIS STORM WILL BE AT NIGHT...THAT RAISES THE
POSSIBILITY FOR MORE SNOWFALL IF TEMPERATURES LOWER FAST ENOUGH.
WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE TRENDS WITH THIS SYSTEM SINCE
IT COULD PRODUCE A QUICK 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD THE TRACK BE FARTHER NORTH.

* WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

A WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD BEHIND A CLIPPER SYSTEM WED INTO WED
NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. LATEST TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE IS FOR MOST
OF THE DAY THURSDAY TO REMAIN DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BREAKS
DOWN.

* THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. MODERATE
  CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION OCCURRING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS SYSTEM WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA EITHER THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY. IT APPEARS THERE COULD
BE A FEW WAVES WHICH DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT...SO DECIDED TO NOT
TRY TO TIME PRECIPITATION TO SPECIFICALLY. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
SHOULD BE ABOVE AVERAGE. TEMPERATURES WILL TURN COLDER BEHIND A
FRONTAL PASSAGE BY SATURDAY OR SUNDAY.

* SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

A WEAK TROUGH LINGERS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THE QUESTION WILL BE
THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IT HAS TO WORK WITH. KEPT THIS PORTION OF
THE FORECAST DRY...FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

TODAY...VFR. BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
MIDDAY TO MID-AFTERNOON. GUSTY WEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT MAY
REACH 25-30 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...VFR. GUSTY WEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT MAY REACH 25-30
KNOTS.

TUESDAY...VFR. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE ACROSS CT AND RI TOWARD
EVENING.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. MAY SEE MVFR SOUTH OF
MASS PIKE IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...VFR.

FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED MVFR IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY

HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...A COLD FRONT CROSSES NEW ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS TOWARD EVENING. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST
TO NEAR 25 KNOTS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. WEST WINDS TRAILING THE
FRONT WILL GUST 25-30 KNOTS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5-7 FEET ON THE
OUTER WATERS AND RHODE ISLANDS/BLOCK ISLAND SOUNDS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONTINUES ON ALL WATERS.

TONIGHT...GUSTY WEST WINDS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. SEAS OF 5-7 FEET
LINGER ON THE OUTER WATERS AND RHODE ISLAND SOUNDS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONTINUES.

TUESDAY...GUSTY WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BRIEFLY OVER THE WATERS. LINGERING SMALL CRAFTS ON THE OUTER
WATERS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY NIGHT...QUICK-MOVING SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN
WATERS. THIS WILL KEEP BOTH SEAS AND WINDS ABOVE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE...ALLOWING
FOR SEAS AND WINDS TO RELAX.

FRIDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS...RESULTING IN
INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS AND SEAS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ230-236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/BELK
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...WTB/BELK
MARINE...BELK/RLG



000
FXUS61 KBOX 300703
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
303 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY BRINGING A FEW
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. A FAST-MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES
SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT...POTENTIALLY BRINGING MORE
LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS. A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM MAY
APPROACH LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...

COLD FRONT CROSSING ONTARIO AND OHIO DURING THE NIGHT WILL MOVE
EAST TODAY...CROSSING NEW ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. NORTHERN
STREAM UPPER JET WILL BE IN POSITION DURING THIS TIME WITH THE
LEFT EXIT REGION OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL PROVIDE UPPER
VENTING OVERLAID ABOVE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OF THE FRONT. THIS
SHOULD SUPPORT SHOWERS. A FEW LIGHT ONES IN CENTRAL NEW YORK
OVERNIGHT MAY REACH OUR AREA THIS MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS SHOULD COME ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE TRANSITING COLD FRONT.
TIMING WOULD BE MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON WEST AND MID AFTERNOON
EAST.

TEMPERATURE PROFILES INITIALLY FAVOR SNOW. BUT EXPECTED WARMING IN
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW THIS MORNING SHOULD CHANGE THIS TO RAIN. ANY
SNOW ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE LIMITED TO AN INCH OR LESS...MOSTLY
LESS.

PRESSURE FALLS OF 1MB/HR OR MORE LEAD THIS FRONT. EXPECT
INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS DURING THE MORNING AND MIDDAY.
PRESSURES RISE BEHIND THE FRONT BUT NOT AS STRONGLY. BUT COLD
ADVECTION MAY INDUCE MIXING OF 25 KNOT GUSTS TO THE SURFACE AFTER
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...

TONIGHT...
COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES TO SUPPORT MIXING INTO THE NIGHT. WINDS
ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL BE 30-40 KNOTS...EXPECT SOME OF THIS TO MIX
TO THE SURFACE IN GUSTS. BASED ON TEMPERATURES UPSTREAM...EXPECT
LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

TUESDAY...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE WEATHER DRY MUCH OF THE DAY.
ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE RACES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT A CLIPPER LOW THAT MOVES
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES DURING THE AFTERNOON. FORECASTS
FROM THE 00Z MODEL SUITE ARE FARTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY WITH
THE ECMWF FARTHEST SOUTH. ALL MODELS BRING SOME MEASUREABLE PCPN
INTO CT BY EVENING...THE GFS COVERS AREAS SOUTH OF THE MASS
PIKE...AND THE NAM HAS MEASURABLE PCPN EVERYWHERE.

TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST RAIN MOST PLACES EXCEPT SNOW IN THE
HILLS. TIMING OF THE PCPN WOULD BE AFTER 21Z. WE HAVE SHIFTED
OUR POPS FARTHER NORTH WITH CHANCE POPS REACHING TO ALONG/SOUTH OF
THE MASS PIKE BY 00Z.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* ALBERTA CLIPPER PASSES BY TO OUR SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT
* MODERATING...SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES LATE THIS WEEK
* INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION SOMETIME DURING EASTER
  WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

NORTHWEST FLOW TO START OVER THE REGION TUESDAY...LASTING INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THIS
FLOW...ALLOWING FOR THE ACTIVE PATTERN TO CONTINUE. 29/12Z MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT...WITH SOME DISCREPANCIES
WITH A CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AND WITH A
MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE LATE THIS WEEK. WILL CONTINUE TO A
FAVOR A CONSENSUS APPROACH UNTIL THESE DETAILS OF THESE SYSTEMS
COME INTO BETTER FOCUS.

DETAILS...

* TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY DIVE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM CANADA AND
MOVE JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE MAJORITY 29/12Z
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP THIS STORM WELL TO OUR SOUTH...WITH
ALMOST NO IMPACT AT ALL ON OUR WEATHER. THE CMC IS THE SLOWEST AND
FARTHEST NORTH WITH THIS SYSTEM. THAT SAID...WILL TREND THIS
PORTION OF THE FORECAST DRIER THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS...WITH
MINIMAL IMPACT ON SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

SINCE THE PASSAGE OF THIS STORM WILL BE AT NIGHT...THAT RAISES THE
POSSIBILITY FOR MORE SNOWFALL IF TEMPERATURES LOWER FAST ENOUGH.
WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE TRENDS WITH THIS SYSTEM SINCE
IT COULD PRODUCE A QUICK 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD THE TRACK BE FARTHER NORTH.

* WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

A WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD BEHIND A CLIPPER SYSTEM WED INTO WED
NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. LATEST TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE IS FOR MOST
OF THE DAY THURSDAY TO REMAIN DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BREAKS
DOWN.

* THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. MODERATE
  CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION OCCURRING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS SYSTEM WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA EITHER THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY. IT APPEARS THERE COULD
BE A FEW WAVES WHICH DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT...SO DECIDED TO NOT
TRY TO TIME PRECIPITATION TO SPECIFICALLY. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
SHOULD BE ABOVE AVERAGE. TEMPERATURES WILL TURN COLDER BEHIND A
FRONTAL PASSAGE BY SATURDAY OR SUNDAY.

* SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

A WEAK TROUGH LINGERS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THE QUESTION WILL BE
THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IT HAS TO WORK WITH. KEPT THIS PORTION OF
THE FORECAST DRY...FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

TODAY...VFR. BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
MIDDAY TO MID-AFTERNOON. GUSTY WEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT MAY
REACH 25-30 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...VFR. GUSTY WEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT MAY REACH 25-30
KNOTS.

TUESDAY...VFR. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE ACROSS CT AND RI TOWARD
EVENING.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. MAY SEE MVFR SOUTH OF
MASS PIKE IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...VFR.

FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED MVFR IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY

HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...A COLD FRONT CROSSES NEW ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS TOWARD EVENING. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST
TO NEAR 25 KNOTS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. WEST WINDS TRAILING THE
FRONT WILL GUST 25-30 KNOTS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5-7 FEET ON THE
OUTER WATERS AND RHODE ISLANDS/BLOCK ISLAND SOUNDS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONTINUES ON ALL WATERS.

TONIGHT...GUSTY WEST WINDS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. SEAS OF 5-7 FEET
LINGER ON THE OUTER WATERS AND RHODE ISLAND SOUNDS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONTINUES.

TUESDAY...GUSTY WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BRIEFLY OVER THE WATERS. LINGERING SMALL CRAFTS ON THE OUTER
WATERS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY NIGHT...QUICK-MOVING SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN
WATERS. THIS WILL KEEP BOTH SEAS AND WINDS ABOVE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE...ALLOWING
FOR SEAS AND WINDS TO RELAX.

FRIDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS...RESULTING IN
INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS AND SEAS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ230-236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/BELK
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...WTB/BELK
MARINE...BELK/RLG




000
FXUS61 KOKX 300558
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
158 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC DRIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE PASSING NORTH OF THE AREA
WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. A SERIES OF
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
CHANGES TO TEMPS AND DEW POINTS THIS EVENING. ONSHORE FLOW HAS
RAISED DEW POINTS NEAR THE COAST. AWAY FROM THE SHORE...DEW POINTS
REMAIN VERY LOW. HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS WELL TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT.

CLEAR SKIES WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO INCREASE MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS...PER IR IMAGERY.

AS SUCH...TEMPS MAY BE A CHALLENGE TO FORECAST FROM POINT TO
POINT. AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...SW FLOW INCREASES A BIT...AND
WEAK WAA STRENGTHENS. THE CLOUDS INCREASE AND THICKEN AS A WEAK
WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...AND THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE TOWARDS DAYBREAK MONDAY.

AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES...SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY DEVELOP OVER
WESTERN ZONES PRIOR TO DAYBREAK MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
LOW PRES TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL DRAG A FRONTAL
SYSTEM THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY. WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH
THROUGH THE REGION IN THE MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT AND
AND UPPER TROUGH WITH SEVERAL H5 SHORTWAVES IN THE AFTERNOON.

A QUICK SHOT OF A WINTRY MIX IS POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING FOR NYC
WITH SOME SNOW POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE...AND THEN AS THERMAL PROFILES
WARM UP DURING THE MORNING...PRECIP CHANGES TO RAIN. COLD FRONT
AND UPPER TROUGH WORK THEIR WAY ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
AFTERNOON...AND ANY RAIN WILL TAPER OFF LATE.

NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN 1/10 INCH QPF...AND NOT EXPECTING
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IN THE MORNING.

SKIES CLEAR OUT MONDAY NIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.

HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMAL LEVELS...
TOPPING OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S IN NYC AND NEARBY SUBURBS...
AND IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S ELSEWHERE. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL
BE IN THE 20S AND 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY WILL START OUT DRY AS THE AREA IS SQUEEZED BETWEEN TWO
SYSTEMS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S. CLOUDS AND POPS
INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE AREA.
MODELS ARE ALL IN AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF PRECIPITATION...BRINGING
PRECIPITATION TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT AND TAPERING PRECIP BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY INLAND.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY THEN MOVES
OFFSHORE THURSDAY...WITH RETURN FLOW AND WARM MOIST AIR QUICKLY
SPREADING NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.

NEXT LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE LOCAL AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S AND LOWS IN
THE LOW TO MID 40S. TEMPERATURES FALL BACK TO NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WAS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...AND WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH 15Z TO 18Z.

VFR...EXCEPT WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWER AND SNOW SHOWERS WITH
LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES...11Z TO 18Z...WEST TO EAST.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING...AND INCLUDED IN A TEMPO
GROUP.

SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 10 KT...BECOMING WEST TO NORTHWEST...280 TO
300 TRUE...WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. GUSTS ALSO DEVELOP
WITH HIGHEST GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT...MOST GUSTS AROUND 20 KT. GUSTS END
THIS EVENING...00Z TO 03Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.LATE MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...VFR. LATE AFTERNOON TUESDAY
MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN DEVELOPING -RA/SN.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLE MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN -RA/SN.
.WEDNESDAY...VFR.
.THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR...WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN -RA LATE IN
IN THE DAY AND AT NIGHT. POSSIBLE LLWS.
.FRIDAY...MVFR IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC DROPS TO THE SOUTHEAST AND MOVES
OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT.

LOW PRES TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL DRAG A FRONTAL
SYSTEM INTO THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT. SW GRADIENT TIGHTENS AS WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS BY MONDAY MORNING...AND THEN
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS IN THE EVENING.

WINDS/OCEAN SEAS BUILD TO SCA LEVELS MONDAY MORNING ON ALL
WATERS...AND THEN CONDS SLOWLY SUBSIDE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA ON
THE SOUND/HARBOR/BAYS BY MONDAY EVENING. SEAS WILL REMAIN ABOVE
SCA LEVELS THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT.

SMALL CRAFT SEAS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN WATERS EARLY
TUESDAY...OTHERWISE BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVEL CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AS WINDS AND WAVES DIMINISH AND WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA WATERS. WAVES INCREASE TO
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THE OCEAN WATERS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LESS THAN 1/10 INCH QPF WILL FALL ACROSS THE REGION ON
MONDAY...HAVING NO HYDROLOGICAL IMPACTS.

NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW BANK FULL...BUT
INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT WILL CONTINUE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT INTO
THIS WEEKEND. ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY
OCCUR...COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING
IS UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS
SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FIG/MPS
NEAR TERM...MPS/PW
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...FIG/MPS/PW
HYDROLOGY...FIG/MPS




000
FXUS61 KOKX 300558
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
158 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC DRIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE PASSING NORTH OF THE AREA
WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. A SERIES OF
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
CHANGES TO TEMPS AND DEW POINTS THIS EVENING. ONSHORE FLOW HAS
RAISED DEW POINTS NEAR THE COAST. AWAY FROM THE SHORE...DEW POINTS
REMAIN VERY LOW. HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS WELL TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT.

CLEAR SKIES WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO INCREASE MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS...PER IR IMAGERY.

AS SUCH...TEMPS MAY BE A CHALLENGE TO FORECAST FROM POINT TO
POINT. AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...SW FLOW INCREASES A BIT...AND
WEAK WAA STRENGTHENS. THE CLOUDS INCREASE AND THICKEN AS A WEAK
WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...AND THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE TOWARDS DAYBREAK MONDAY.

AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES...SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY DEVELOP OVER
WESTERN ZONES PRIOR TO DAYBREAK MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
LOW PRES TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL DRAG A FRONTAL
SYSTEM THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY. WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH
THROUGH THE REGION IN THE MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT AND
AND UPPER TROUGH WITH SEVERAL H5 SHORTWAVES IN THE AFTERNOON.

A QUICK SHOT OF A WINTRY MIX IS POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING FOR NYC
WITH SOME SNOW POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE...AND THEN AS THERMAL PROFILES
WARM UP DURING THE MORNING...PRECIP CHANGES TO RAIN. COLD FRONT
AND UPPER TROUGH WORK THEIR WAY ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
AFTERNOON...AND ANY RAIN WILL TAPER OFF LATE.

NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN 1/10 INCH QPF...AND NOT EXPECTING
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IN THE MORNING.

SKIES CLEAR OUT MONDAY NIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.

HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMAL LEVELS...
TOPPING OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S IN NYC AND NEARBY SUBURBS...
AND IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S ELSEWHERE. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL
BE IN THE 20S AND 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY WILL START OUT DRY AS THE AREA IS SQUEEZED BETWEEN TWO
SYSTEMS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S. CLOUDS AND POPS
INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE AREA.
MODELS ARE ALL IN AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF PRECIPITATION...BRINGING
PRECIPITATION TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT AND TAPERING PRECIP BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY INLAND.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY THEN MOVES
OFFSHORE THURSDAY...WITH RETURN FLOW AND WARM MOIST AIR QUICKLY
SPREADING NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.

NEXT LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE LOCAL AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S AND LOWS IN
THE LOW TO MID 40S. TEMPERATURES FALL BACK TO NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WAS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...AND WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH 15Z TO 18Z.

VFR...EXCEPT WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWER AND SNOW SHOWERS WITH
LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES...11Z TO 18Z...WEST TO EAST.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING...AND INCLUDED IN A TEMPO
GROUP.

SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 10 KT...BECOMING WEST TO NORTHWEST...280 TO
300 TRUE...WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. GUSTS ALSO DEVELOP
WITH HIGHEST GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT...MOST GUSTS AROUND 20 KT. GUSTS END
THIS EVENING...00Z TO 03Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.LATE MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...VFR. LATE AFTERNOON TUESDAY
MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN DEVELOPING -RA/SN.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLE MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN -RA/SN.
.WEDNESDAY...VFR.
.THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR...WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN -RA LATE IN
IN THE DAY AND AT NIGHT. POSSIBLE LLWS.
.FRIDAY...MVFR IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC DROPS TO THE SOUTHEAST AND MOVES
OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT.

LOW PRES TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL DRAG A FRONTAL
SYSTEM INTO THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT. SW GRADIENT TIGHTENS AS WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS BY MONDAY MORNING...AND THEN
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS IN THE EVENING.

WINDS/OCEAN SEAS BUILD TO SCA LEVELS MONDAY MORNING ON ALL
WATERS...AND THEN CONDS SLOWLY SUBSIDE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA ON
THE SOUND/HARBOR/BAYS BY MONDAY EVENING. SEAS WILL REMAIN ABOVE
SCA LEVELS THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT.

SMALL CRAFT SEAS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN WATERS EARLY
TUESDAY...OTHERWISE BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVEL CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AS WINDS AND WAVES DIMINISH AND WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA WATERS. WAVES INCREASE TO
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THE OCEAN WATERS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LESS THAN 1/10 INCH QPF WILL FALL ACROSS THE REGION ON
MONDAY...HAVING NO HYDROLOGICAL IMPACTS.

NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW BANK FULL...BUT
INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT WILL CONTINUE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT INTO
THIS WEEKEND. ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY
OCCUR...COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING
IS UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS
SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FIG/MPS
NEAR TERM...MPS/PW
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...FIG/MPS/PW
HYDROLOGY...FIG/MPS




000
FXUS61 KOKX 300558
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
158 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC DRIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE PASSING NORTH OF THE AREA
WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. A SERIES OF
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
CHANGES TO TEMPS AND DEW POINTS THIS EVENING. ONSHORE FLOW HAS
RAISED DEW POINTS NEAR THE COAST. AWAY FROM THE SHORE...DEW POINTS
REMAIN VERY LOW. HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS WELL TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT.

CLEAR SKIES WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO INCREASE MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS...PER IR IMAGERY.

AS SUCH...TEMPS MAY BE A CHALLENGE TO FORECAST FROM POINT TO
POINT. AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...SW FLOW INCREASES A BIT...AND
WEAK WAA STRENGTHENS. THE CLOUDS INCREASE AND THICKEN AS A WEAK
WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...AND THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE TOWARDS DAYBREAK MONDAY.

AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES...SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY DEVELOP OVER
WESTERN ZONES PRIOR TO DAYBREAK MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
LOW PRES TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL DRAG A FRONTAL
SYSTEM THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY. WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH
THROUGH THE REGION IN THE MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT AND
AND UPPER TROUGH WITH SEVERAL H5 SHORTWAVES IN THE AFTERNOON.

A QUICK SHOT OF A WINTRY MIX IS POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING FOR NYC
WITH SOME SNOW POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE...AND THEN AS THERMAL PROFILES
WARM UP DURING THE MORNING...PRECIP CHANGES TO RAIN. COLD FRONT
AND UPPER TROUGH WORK THEIR WAY ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
AFTERNOON...AND ANY RAIN WILL TAPER OFF LATE.

NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN 1/10 INCH QPF...AND NOT EXPECTING
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IN THE MORNING.

SKIES CLEAR OUT MONDAY NIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.

HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMAL LEVELS...
TOPPING OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S IN NYC AND NEARBY SUBURBS...
AND IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S ELSEWHERE. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL
BE IN THE 20S AND 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY WILL START OUT DRY AS THE AREA IS SQUEEZED BETWEEN TWO
SYSTEMS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S. CLOUDS AND POPS
INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE AREA.
MODELS ARE ALL IN AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF PRECIPITATION...BRINGING
PRECIPITATION TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT AND TAPERING PRECIP BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY INLAND.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY THEN MOVES
OFFSHORE THURSDAY...WITH RETURN FLOW AND WARM MOIST AIR QUICKLY
SPREADING NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.

NEXT LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE LOCAL AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S AND LOWS IN
THE LOW TO MID 40S. TEMPERATURES FALL BACK TO NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WAS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...AND WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH 15Z TO 18Z.

VFR...EXCEPT WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWER AND SNOW SHOWERS WITH
LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES...11Z TO 18Z...WEST TO EAST.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING...AND INCLUDED IN A TEMPO
GROUP.

SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 10 KT...BECOMING WEST TO NORTHWEST...280 TO
300 TRUE...WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. GUSTS ALSO DEVELOP
WITH HIGHEST GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT...MOST GUSTS AROUND 20 KT. GUSTS END
THIS EVENING...00Z TO 03Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.LATE MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...VFR. LATE AFTERNOON TUESDAY
MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN DEVELOPING -RA/SN.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLE MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN -RA/SN.
.WEDNESDAY...VFR.
.THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR...WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN -RA LATE IN
IN THE DAY AND AT NIGHT. POSSIBLE LLWS.
.FRIDAY...MVFR IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC DROPS TO THE SOUTHEAST AND MOVES
OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT.

LOW PRES TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL DRAG A FRONTAL
SYSTEM INTO THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT. SW GRADIENT TIGHTENS AS WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS BY MONDAY MORNING...AND THEN
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS IN THE EVENING.

WINDS/OCEAN SEAS BUILD TO SCA LEVELS MONDAY MORNING ON ALL
WATERS...AND THEN CONDS SLOWLY SUBSIDE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA ON
THE SOUND/HARBOR/BAYS BY MONDAY EVENING. SEAS WILL REMAIN ABOVE
SCA LEVELS THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT.

SMALL CRAFT SEAS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN WATERS EARLY
TUESDAY...OTHERWISE BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVEL CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AS WINDS AND WAVES DIMINISH AND WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA WATERS. WAVES INCREASE TO
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THE OCEAN WATERS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LESS THAN 1/10 INCH QPF WILL FALL ACROSS THE REGION ON
MONDAY...HAVING NO HYDROLOGICAL IMPACTS.

NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW BANK FULL...BUT
INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT WILL CONTINUE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT INTO
THIS WEEKEND. ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY
OCCUR...COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING
IS UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS
SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FIG/MPS
NEAR TERM...MPS/PW
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...FIG/MPS/PW
HYDROLOGY...FIG/MPS




000
FXUS61 KOKX 300558
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
158 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC DRIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE PASSING NORTH OF THE AREA
WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. A SERIES OF
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
CHANGES TO TEMPS AND DEW POINTS THIS EVENING. ONSHORE FLOW HAS
RAISED DEW POINTS NEAR THE COAST. AWAY FROM THE SHORE...DEW POINTS
REMAIN VERY LOW. HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS WELL TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT.

CLEAR SKIES WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO INCREASE MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS...PER IR IMAGERY.

AS SUCH...TEMPS MAY BE A CHALLENGE TO FORECAST FROM POINT TO
POINT. AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...SW FLOW INCREASES A BIT...AND
WEAK WAA STRENGTHENS. THE CLOUDS INCREASE AND THICKEN AS A WEAK
WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...AND THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE TOWARDS DAYBREAK MONDAY.

AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES...SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY DEVELOP OVER
WESTERN ZONES PRIOR TO DAYBREAK MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
LOW PRES TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL DRAG A FRONTAL
SYSTEM THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY. WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH
THROUGH THE REGION IN THE MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT AND
AND UPPER TROUGH WITH SEVERAL H5 SHORTWAVES IN THE AFTERNOON.

A QUICK SHOT OF A WINTRY MIX IS POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING FOR NYC
WITH SOME SNOW POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE...AND THEN AS THERMAL PROFILES
WARM UP DURING THE MORNING...PRECIP CHANGES TO RAIN. COLD FRONT
AND UPPER TROUGH WORK THEIR WAY ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
AFTERNOON...AND ANY RAIN WILL TAPER OFF LATE.

NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN 1/10 INCH QPF...AND NOT EXPECTING
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IN THE MORNING.

SKIES CLEAR OUT MONDAY NIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.

HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMAL LEVELS...
TOPPING OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S IN NYC AND NEARBY SUBURBS...
AND IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S ELSEWHERE. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL
BE IN THE 20S AND 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY WILL START OUT DRY AS THE AREA IS SQUEEZED BETWEEN TWO
SYSTEMS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S. CLOUDS AND POPS
INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE AREA.
MODELS ARE ALL IN AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF PRECIPITATION...BRINGING
PRECIPITATION TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT AND TAPERING PRECIP BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY INLAND.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY THEN MOVES
OFFSHORE THURSDAY...WITH RETURN FLOW AND WARM MOIST AIR QUICKLY
SPREADING NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.

NEXT LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE LOCAL AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S AND LOWS IN
THE LOW TO MID 40S. TEMPERATURES FALL BACK TO NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WAS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...AND WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH 15Z TO 18Z.

VFR...EXCEPT WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWER AND SNOW SHOWERS WITH
LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES...11Z TO 18Z...WEST TO EAST.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING...AND INCLUDED IN A TEMPO
GROUP.

SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 10 KT...BECOMING WEST TO NORTHWEST...280 TO
300 TRUE...WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. GUSTS ALSO DEVELOP
WITH HIGHEST GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT...MOST GUSTS AROUND 20 KT. GUSTS END
THIS EVENING...00Z TO 03Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.LATE MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...VFR. LATE AFTERNOON TUESDAY
MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN DEVELOPING -RA/SN.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLE MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN -RA/SN.
.WEDNESDAY...VFR.
.THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR...WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN -RA LATE IN
IN THE DAY AND AT NIGHT. POSSIBLE LLWS.
.FRIDAY...MVFR IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC DROPS TO THE SOUTHEAST AND MOVES
OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT.

LOW PRES TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL DRAG A FRONTAL
SYSTEM INTO THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT. SW GRADIENT TIGHTENS AS WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS BY MONDAY MORNING...AND THEN
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS IN THE EVENING.

WINDS/OCEAN SEAS BUILD TO SCA LEVELS MONDAY MORNING ON ALL
WATERS...AND THEN CONDS SLOWLY SUBSIDE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA ON
THE SOUND/HARBOR/BAYS BY MONDAY EVENING. SEAS WILL REMAIN ABOVE
SCA LEVELS THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT.

SMALL CRAFT SEAS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN WATERS EARLY
TUESDAY...OTHERWISE BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVEL CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AS WINDS AND WAVES DIMINISH AND WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA WATERS. WAVES INCREASE TO
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THE OCEAN WATERS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LESS THAN 1/10 INCH QPF WILL FALL ACROSS THE REGION ON
MONDAY...HAVING NO HYDROLOGICAL IMPACTS.

NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW BANK FULL...BUT
INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT WILL CONTINUE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT INTO
THIS WEEKEND. ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY
OCCUR...COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING
IS UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS
SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FIG/MPS
NEAR TERM...MPS/PW
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...FIG/MPS/PW
HYDROLOGY...FIG/MPS




000
FXUS61 KOKX 300558
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
158 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC DRIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE PASSING NORTH OF THE AREA
WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. A SERIES OF
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
CHANGES TO TEMPS AND DEW POINTS THIS EVENING. ONSHORE FLOW HAS
RAISED DEW POINTS NEAR THE COAST. AWAY FROM THE SHORE...DEW POINTS
REMAIN VERY LOW. HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS WELL TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT.

CLEAR SKIES WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO INCREASE MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS...PER IR IMAGERY.

AS SUCH...TEMPS MAY BE A CHALLENGE TO FORECAST FROM POINT TO
POINT. AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...SW FLOW INCREASES A BIT...AND
WEAK WAA STRENGTHENS. THE CLOUDS INCREASE AND THICKEN AS A WEAK
WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...AND THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE TOWARDS DAYBREAK MONDAY.

AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES...SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY DEVELOP OVER
WESTERN ZONES PRIOR TO DAYBREAK MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
LOW PRES TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL DRAG A FRONTAL
SYSTEM THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY. WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH
THROUGH THE REGION IN THE MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT AND
AND UPPER TROUGH WITH SEVERAL H5 SHORTWAVES IN THE AFTERNOON.

A QUICK SHOT OF A WINTRY MIX IS POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING FOR NYC
WITH SOME SNOW POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE...AND THEN AS THERMAL PROFILES
WARM UP DURING THE MORNING...PRECIP CHANGES TO RAIN. COLD FRONT
AND UPPER TROUGH WORK THEIR WAY ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
AFTERNOON...AND ANY RAIN WILL TAPER OFF LATE.

NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN 1/10 INCH QPF...AND NOT EXPECTING
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IN THE MORNING.

SKIES CLEAR OUT MONDAY NIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.

HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMAL LEVELS...
TOPPING OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S IN NYC AND NEARBY SUBURBS...
AND IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S ELSEWHERE. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL
BE IN THE 20S AND 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY WILL START OUT DRY AS THE AREA IS SQUEEZED BETWEEN TWO
SYSTEMS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S. CLOUDS AND POPS
INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE AREA.
MODELS ARE ALL IN AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF PRECIPITATION...BRINGING
PRECIPITATION TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT AND TAPERING PRECIP BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY INLAND.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY THEN MOVES
OFFSHORE THURSDAY...WITH RETURN FLOW AND WARM MOIST AIR QUICKLY
SPREADING NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.

NEXT LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE LOCAL AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S AND LOWS IN
THE LOW TO MID 40S. TEMPERATURES FALL BACK TO NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WAS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...AND WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH 15Z TO 18Z.

VFR...EXCEPT WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWER AND SNOW SHOWERS WITH
LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES...11Z TO 18Z...WEST TO EAST.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING...AND INCLUDED IN A TEMPO
GROUP.

SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 10 KT...BECOMING WEST TO NORTHWEST...280 TO
300 TRUE...WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. GUSTS ALSO DEVELOP
WITH HIGHEST GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT...MOST GUSTS AROUND 20 KT. GUSTS END
THIS EVENING...00Z TO 03Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.LATE MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...VFR. LATE AFTERNOON TUESDAY
MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN DEVELOPING -RA/SN.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLE MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN -RA/SN.
.WEDNESDAY...VFR.
.THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR...WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN -RA LATE IN
IN THE DAY AND AT NIGHT. POSSIBLE LLWS.
.FRIDAY...MVFR IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC DROPS TO THE SOUTHEAST AND MOVES
OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT.

LOW PRES TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL DRAG A FRONTAL
SYSTEM INTO THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT. SW GRADIENT TIGHTENS AS WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS BY MONDAY MORNING...AND THEN
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS IN THE EVENING.

WINDS/OCEAN SEAS BUILD TO SCA LEVELS MONDAY MORNING ON ALL
WATERS...AND THEN CONDS SLOWLY SUBSIDE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA ON
THE SOUND/HARBOR/BAYS BY MONDAY EVENING. SEAS WILL REMAIN ABOVE
SCA LEVELS THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT.

SMALL CRAFT SEAS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN WATERS EARLY
TUESDAY...OTHERWISE BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVEL CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AS WINDS AND WAVES DIMINISH AND WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA WATERS. WAVES INCREASE TO
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THE OCEAN WATERS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LESS THAN 1/10 INCH QPF WILL FALL ACROSS THE REGION ON
MONDAY...HAVING NO HYDROLOGICAL IMPACTS.

NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW BANK FULL...BUT
INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT WILL CONTINUE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT INTO
THIS WEEKEND. ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY
OCCUR...COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING
IS UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS
SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FIG/MPS
NEAR TERM...MPS/PW
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...FIG/MPS/PW
HYDROLOGY...FIG/MPS




000
FXUS61 KOKX 300558
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
158 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC DRIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE PASSING NORTH OF THE AREA
WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. A SERIES OF
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
CHANGES TO TEMPS AND DEW POINTS THIS EVENING. ONSHORE FLOW HAS
RAISED DEW POINTS NEAR THE COAST. AWAY FROM THE SHORE...DEW POINTS
REMAIN VERY LOW. HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS WELL TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT.

CLEAR SKIES WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO INCREASE MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS...PER IR IMAGERY.

AS SUCH...TEMPS MAY BE A CHALLENGE TO FORECAST FROM POINT TO
POINT. AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...SW FLOW INCREASES A BIT...AND
WEAK WAA STRENGTHENS. THE CLOUDS INCREASE AND THICKEN AS A WEAK
WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...AND THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE TOWARDS DAYBREAK MONDAY.

AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES...SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY DEVELOP OVER
WESTERN ZONES PRIOR TO DAYBREAK MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
LOW PRES TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL DRAG A FRONTAL
SYSTEM THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY. WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH
THROUGH THE REGION IN THE MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT AND
AND UPPER TROUGH WITH SEVERAL H5 SHORTWAVES IN THE AFTERNOON.

A QUICK SHOT OF A WINTRY MIX IS POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING FOR NYC
WITH SOME SNOW POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE...AND THEN AS THERMAL PROFILES
WARM UP DURING THE MORNING...PRECIP CHANGES TO RAIN. COLD FRONT
AND UPPER TROUGH WORK THEIR WAY ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
AFTERNOON...AND ANY RAIN WILL TAPER OFF LATE.

NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN 1/10 INCH QPF...AND NOT EXPECTING
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IN THE MORNING.

SKIES CLEAR OUT MONDAY NIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.

HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMAL LEVELS...
TOPPING OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S IN NYC AND NEARBY SUBURBS...
AND IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S ELSEWHERE. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL
BE IN THE 20S AND 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY WILL START OUT DRY AS THE AREA IS SQUEEZED BETWEEN TWO
SYSTEMS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S. CLOUDS AND POPS
INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE AREA.
MODELS ARE ALL IN AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF PRECIPITATION...BRINGING
PRECIPITATION TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT AND TAPERING PRECIP BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY INLAND.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY THEN MOVES
OFFSHORE THURSDAY...WITH RETURN FLOW AND WARM MOIST AIR QUICKLY
SPREADING NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.

NEXT LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE LOCAL AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S AND LOWS IN
THE LOW TO MID 40S. TEMPERATURES FALL BACK TO NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WAS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...AND WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH 15Z TO 18Z.

VFR...EXCEPT WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWER AND SNOW SHOWERS WITH
LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES...11Z TO 18Z...WEST TO EAST.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING...AND INCLUDED IN A TEMPO
GROUP.

SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 10 KT...BECOMING WEST TO NORTHWEST...280 TO
300 TRUE...WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. GUSTS ALSO DEVELOP
WITH HIGHEST GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT...MOST GUSTS AROUND 20 KT. GUSTS END
THIS EVENING...00Z TO 03Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.LATE MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...VFR. LATE AFTERNOON TUESDAY
MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN DEVELOPING -RA/SN.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLE MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN -RA/SN.
.WEDNESDAY...VFR.
.THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR...WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN -RA LATE IN
IN THE DAY AND AT NIGHT. POSSIBLE LLWS.
.FRIDAY...MVFR IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC DROPS TO THE SOUTHEAST AND MOVES
OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT.

LOW PRES TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL DRAG A FRONTAL
SYSTEM INTO THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT. SW GRADIENT TIGHTENS AS WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS BY MONDAY MORNING...AND THEN
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS IN THE EVENING.

WINDS/OCEAN SEAS BUILD TO SCA LEVELS MONDAY MORNING ON ALL
WATERS...AND THEN CONDS SLOWLY SUBSIDE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA ON
THE SOUND/HARBOR/BAYS BY MONDAY EVENING. SEAS WILL REMAIN ABOVE
SCA LEVELS THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT.

SMALL CRAFT SEAS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN WATERS EARLY
TUESDAY...OTHERWISE BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVEL CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AS WINDS AND WAVES DIMINISH AND WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA WATERS. WAVES INCREASE TO
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THE OCEAN WATERS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LESS THAN 1/10 INCH QPF WILL FALL ACROSS THE REGION ON
MONDAY...HAVING NO HYDROLOGICAL IMPACTS.

NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW BANK FULL...BUT
INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT WILL CONTINUE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT INTO
THIS WEEKEND. ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY
OCCUR...COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING
IS UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS
SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FIG/MPS
NEAR TERM...MPS/PW
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...FIG/MPS/PW
HYDROLOGY...FIG/MPS



000
FXUS61 KALY 300557
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
157 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW MAINLY
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST. A COLD
FRONT COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER CLIPPER
TRACKING SOUTH OF THE REGION COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO
SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 105 AM EDT...HIGH CLOUDS WERE RACING ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD
OF AN UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL PUT THE CAP ON
LOW TEMPERATURES. THE COMBINATION OF THEM AND A SOUTHERLY BREEZE
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE A BIT OVERNIGHT IN MOST SPOTS.

PRECIPITATION (AT LEAST ON RADAR) WAS WORKING INTO OUR WESTERN AREAS
BUT SO FAR...ONLY A COUPLE OF STATIONS HAVE REPORTED ANYTHING
UPSTREAM AND IT HAS BEEN LIGHT AS IT IS WORKING AGAINST DRY AIR
THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN. THE ACTIVITY WAS MOVING VERY FAST TO THE
EAST. THE HRRR AND OTHER SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE THIS FIRST
BATCH...ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT...WILL RACE THROUGH OUR REGION
THROUGH DAYBREAK...THEN THERE MIGHT NOT BE MUCH UNTIL LATER WHEN THE
COLD FRONT...ALONG WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY SHOULD FORM
MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS OF RAIN/GRAUPEL AND ELEVATION SNOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE THE LOWER 30S IN THE VALLEYS...MID
20S TO AROUND 30 ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH DAYBREAK. THIS
SHOULD MEAN ANYTHING PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS WILL BE SNOW. ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE
ONE TO LOCALLY 4 INCHES COULD ACCUMULATE...WITH NO MORE THAN A
DUSTING EXPECTED IN THE VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BASED ON NEW GUIDANCE MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE MONDAY PORTION
OF THE SHORT PERIOD ONLY...MAINLY TO LOWER POPS IN THE VALLEYS
DURING THE MORNING...BUT PRETTY LEFT THEM ALONE FOR THE AFTERNOON AS
THE COLD FRONT AND DESTABILIZATION WILL LIKELY MEAN A FEW MORE
SCATTERED SHOWERS OF RAIN/GRAUPEL

SCATTERED SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY IN MOST AREAS.
WINDS SHIFT TO WEST AND COLD ADVECTION BEGINS IN THE AFTERNOON.
GUSTY WEST WINDS AND SOME DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD HELP CLOUDS TO
BREAK UP LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 40S...AROUND 40 SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND AROUND 50 SOUTHERN AREAS. TOUGH TO TELL IF CLOUD
COVER WILL BREAK UP EARLY ENOUGH FOR POTENTIALLY MORE SUN AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. FOR NOW...CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED
SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS MAY LINGER LONG ENOUGH TO LIMIT WARMING...EVEN
WITH THE MIXING DUE TO THE GUSTY WEST WINDS DEVELOPING.

GRADUAL CLEARING THROUGH THE NIGHT AS COLD ADVECTION SPREADS EAST.
SOME LAKE EFFECT LOW LEVEL FLOW COULD SUPPORT SOME SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT SHOULD
NOT GO CALM. LOWS IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30.

A TRAILING PIECE OF NORTHERN STREAM UPPER ENERGY TRACKS SOUTHEAST
OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND TRACKS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A PRECIPITATION
SHIELD...POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION IS IN
QUESTION...BUT SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER COULD EXTEND EVEN
FURTHER NORTH...COVERING MOST OF NOT ALL THE FORECAST AREA.
BRINGING SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS INTO SOUTHERN AREAS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER MOST AREAS.
HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 40S...WITH SOME 30S SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

BEST CONSENSUS FOR PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT TO BE SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...BUT INDICATING JUST A CHANCE FOR SNOW IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. STILL...SOME AREAS OF CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA AND NEUTRAL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION. SO LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
IN THE 20S...TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS.

DEEPENING COLD ADVECTION WEDNESDAY AS THE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT EXIT. STRONG EARLY APRIL SUN SHOULD STILL HELP
TEMPERATURES REACH THE 40S FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY...30S IN NORTHERN
AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY REGARDING THE HANDLING OF FAST MOVING
PACIFIC SHORTWAVE ENERGY DURING THE FRI-SAT TIME PERIOD.

THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE DEAMPLIFYING AT THE START OF THE
EXTENDED ACROSS THE U.S...AS THE PERSISTENT POLAR VORTEX RELAXES AND
REORIENTS A BIT FURTHER N AND W ACROSS CANADA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
FAST MOVING PACIFIC SYSTEMS TO TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
U.S. RIDGING AHEAD OF ONE OF THESE DISTURBANCES SHOULD BRING A
PERIOD OF MILDER TEMPERATURES FOR THU-FRI...BEFORE TEMPS TREND BACK
TO BELOW NORMAL BY NEXT WEEKEND AS MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ONCE
AGAIN FALL ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

HERE ARE SOME MORE SPECIFICS...

THU-SAT NT...A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL TRACK EAST FROM THE
WESTERN U.S. DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH A NORTHERN PIECE
TRACKING INTO CENTRAL CANADA...WHILE A SOUTHERN ONE TRACKS INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. FRONTAL SYSTEMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN ONE
SHOULD IMPACT OUR REGION THU...WITH A WARM FRONT INITIALLY...THEN A
COLD FRONT SOMETIME THU NT OR FRI. THIS SHOULD BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO
THE REGION THU-EARLY FRI...WITH PERHAPS SOME WET SNOW AT ONSET
ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS EARLY THU AM. THEN...AS THE SOUTHERN
PIECE OF ENERGY TRACKS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY THE
EASTERN U.S...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD
FRONT...AND ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO LINGER/REDEVELOP LATER FRI AND
POSSIBLY INTO SAT. DEPENDING ON HOW THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND
TIMING OF ASSOCIATED SFC BOUNDARIES TRACK FRI-SAT...THERE COULD BE
ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR P-TYPE ISSUES WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIP. IN
ADDITION...SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT ANY SOUTHERN PIECES OF ENERGY
AND WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK FURTHER SOUTH WITH LESS IMPACTS ON
OUR REGION. SO...AT THIS TIME...GENERALLY HAVE INDICATED ONLY CHC
POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...MAINLY FOR RAIN SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH SOME
SNOW COULD OCCUR FRI NT INTO SAT DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING AND
TRACK OF SYSTEMS.

SUN...A RETURN TO BELOW...TO POTENTIALLY WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IS
QUITE POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF ANY PREVIOUS SYSTEM. IT SHOULD BE
GENERALLY DRY...ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS OF SNOW OR
RAIN DEPENDING ON INSTABILITY AND OVERALL PROGRESSION OF UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THE EXTENDED...RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD
FAVOR NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR AT LEAST THU-FRI...BEFORE
TRENDING BACK TO BELOW NORMAL BY SAT-SUN. MAX TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 50S IN MOST VALLEYS THU-FRI WITH 40S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SHOULD ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND/OR
SIGNIFICANT DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOP DURING THIS
PERIOD...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR EVEN WARMER TEMPS...PERHAPS
REACHING WELL INTO THE 60S OR HIGHER...BUT PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS AND
PRECIP MOST LIKELY WILL NOT ALLOW FOR FULL WARMING POTENTIAL TO BE
REALIZED. OVERNIGHT LOWS INITIALLY WILL BE COLD FOR WED NT-THU
AM...MAINLY TEENS AND 20S...THEN WARMING INTO THE 30S AND LOWER 40S
FOR THU NT-FRI AM AND MAINLY 30S FOR FRI NT/SAT AM FOR LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND SOME 20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. BY SAT-SUN...MAX
TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY REACH THE 40S IN VALLEYS AND 30S ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN...WITH EVEN COLDER MAX TEMPS POSSIBLE ON SUN. OVERNIGHT MINS
SAT NT/SUN AM SHOULD MAINLY FALL INTO THE 20S FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS
AND TEENS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM...HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WERE ALREADY INCREASING ACROSS
THE REGION...AND WILL THICKEN AND LOWER OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT.

AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES...LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 09Z AND 13Z. ONCE THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH...THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS (MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS LATER IN THE DAY...WILL
CONTINUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING
THE MID AFTERNOON PERIOD. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THERE WILL STILL
BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALSO AFFECTS
THE REGION.

ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A FEW WEATHER FEATURES AFFECTING THE REGION
DURING THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 06Z TUESDAY...MOISTURE IS LIMITED
AND FORCING IS RELATIVELY WEAK...SO FOR THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF
TAF SITES HAVE GENERALLY FORECAST VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE
TAF PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION IS AT KGFL/KPSF...WHERE A TEMPO GROUP
FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS DUE TO SNOW SHOWERS HAS BEEN FORECAST BETWEEN
09Z AND 13Z. OTHERWISE...THE THREAT OF SHOWERS IS LOW AND TIMING
DIFFICULT...SO HAVE ONLY INDICATED VCSH AT THE OTHER TAF SITES
AND DURING OTHER TIMES OF THE TAFS.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE INCREASING AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT TO 5 TO
10 KTS...WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 15 KTS AT KALB. AFTER THE WARM
FRONT THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO 8 TO
12 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 25 KTS DURING MID/LATE MONDAY MORNING.
BY MID AFTERNOON THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WESTERLY AFTER THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH SPEEDS OF 12 TO 18 KTS AND GUSTS OF 20
TO 30 KTS. AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...THE SPEEDS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH.

OUTLOOK...

LATE MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH
MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST. A COLD FRONT
COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER CLIPPER
TRACKING SOUTH OF THE REGION COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO
SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY.

RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 55 PERCENT MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 70 AND 100 PERCENT TONIGHT
AND MONDAY NIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 15 MPH TONIGHT...THEN BECOME WEST TO
NORTHWEST TOMORROW AT 15 TO 25 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH...
DIMINISHING TO AROUND 15 MPH MONDAY NIGHT...THEN INCREASING AGAIN
TO 15 TO 20 MPH TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISES.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN MONDAY. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...WITH UP TO A QUARTER INCH IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND SOME AREAS MAY NOT SEE PRECIP. SOME OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE SNOWPACK IN PLACE...
AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/KL/NAS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV/NAS
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV/KL/NAS




000
FXUS61 KALY 300557
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
157 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW MAINLY
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST. A COLD
FRONT COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER CLIPPER
TRACKING SOUTH OF THE REGION COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO
SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 105 AM EDT...HIGH CLOUDS WERE RACING ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD
OF AN UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL PUT THE CAP ON
LOW TEMPERATURES. THE COMBINATION OF THEM AND A SOUTHERLY BREEZE
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE A BIT OVERNIGHT IN MOST SPOTS.

PRECIPITATION (AT LEAST ON RADAR) WAS WORKING INTO OUR WESTERN AREAS
BUT SO FAR...ONLY A COUPLE OF STATIONS HAVE REPORTED ANYTHING
UPSTREAM AND IT HAS BEEN LIGHT AS IT IS WORKING AGAINST DRY AIR
THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN. THE ACTIVITY WAS MOVING VERY FAST TO THE
EAST. THE HRRR AND OTHER SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE THIS FIRST
BATCH...ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT...WILL RACE THROUGH OUR REGION
THROUGH DAYBREAK...THEN THERE MIGHT NOT BE MUCH UNTIL LATER WHEN THE
COLD FRONT...ALONG WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY SHOULD FORM
MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS OF RAIN/GRAUPEL AND ELEVATION SNOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE THE LOWER 30S IN THE VALLEYS...MID
20S TO AROUND 30 ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH DAYBREAK. THIS
SHOULD MEAN ANYTHING PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS WILL BE SNOW. ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE
ONE TO LOCALLY 4 INCHES COULD ACCUMULATE...WITH NO MORE THAN A
DUSTING EXPECTED IN THE VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BASED ON NEW GUIDANCE MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE MONDAY PORTION
OF THE SHORT PERIOD ONLY...MAINLY TO LOWER POPS IN THE VALLEYS
DURING THE MORNING...BUT PRETTY LEFT THEM ALONE FOR THE AFTERNOON AS
THE COLD FRONT AND DESTABILIZATION WILL LIKELY MEAN A FEW MORE
SCATTERED SHOWERS OF RAIN/GRAUPEL

SCATTERED SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY IN MOST AREAS.
WINDS SHIFT TO WEST AND COLD ADVECTION BEGINS IN THE AFTERNOON.
GUSTY WEST WINDS AND SOME DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD HELP CLOUDS TO
BREAK UP LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 40S...AROUND 40 SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND AROUND 50 SOUTHERN AREAS. TOUGH TO TELL IF CLOUD
COVER WILL BREAK UP EARLY ENOUGH FOR POTENTIALLY MORE SUN AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. FOR NOW...CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED
SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS MAY LINGER LONG ENOUGH TO LIMIT WARMING...EVEN
WITH THE MIXING DUE TO THE GUSTY WEST WINDS DEVELOPING.

GRADUAL CLEARING THROUGH THE NIGHT AS COLD ADVECTION SPREADS EAST.
SOME LAKE EFFECT LOW LEVEL FLOW COULD SUPPORT SOME SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT SHOULD
NOT GO CALM. LOWS IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30.

A TRAILING PIECE OF NORTHERN STREAM UPPER ENERGY TRACKS SOUTHEAST
OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND TRACKS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A PRECIPITATION
SHIELD...POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION IS IN
QUESTION...BUT SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER COULD EXTEND EVEN
FURTHER NORTH...COVERING MOST OF NOT ALL THE FORECAST AREA.
BRINGING SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS INTO SOUTHERN AREAS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER MOST AREAS.
HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 40S...WITH SOME 30S SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

BEST CONSENSUS FOR PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT TO BE SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...BUT INDICATING JUST A CHANCE FOR SNOW IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. STILL...SOME AREAS OF CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA AND NEUTRAL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION. SO LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
IN THE 20S...TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS.

DEEPENING COLD ADVECTION WEDNESDAY AS THE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT EXIT. STRONG EARLY APRIL SUN SHOULD STILL HELP
TEMPERATURES REACH THE 40S FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY...30S IN NORTHERN
AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY REGARDING THE HANDLING OF FAST MOVING
PACIFIC SHORTWAVE ENERGY DURING THE FRI-SAT TIME PERIOD.

THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE DEAMPLIFYING AT THE START OF THE
EXTENDED ACROSS THE U.S...AS THE PERSISTENT POLAR VORTEX RELAXES AND
REORIENTS A BIT FURTHER N AND W ACROSS CANADA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
FAST MOVING PACIFIC SYSTEMS TO TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
U.S. RIDGING AHEAD OF ONE OF THESE DISTURBANCES SHOULD BRING A
PERIOD OF MILDER TEMPERATURES FOR THU-FRI...BEFORE TEMPS TREND BACK
TO BELOW NORMAL BY NEXT WEEKEND AS MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ONCE
AGAIN FALL ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

HERE ARE SOME MORE SPECIFICS...

THU-SAT NT...A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL TRACK EAST FROM THE
WESTERN U.S. DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH A NORTHERN PIECE
TRACKING INTO CENTRAL CANADA...WHILE A SOUTHERN ONE TRACKS INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. FRONTAL SYSTEMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN ONE
SHOULD IMPACT OUR REGION THU...WITH A WARM FRONT INITIALLY...THEN A
COLD FRONT SOMETIME THU NT OR FRI. THIS SHOULD BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO
THE REGION THU-EARLY FRI...WITH PERHAPS SOME WET SNOW AT ONSET
ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS EARLY THU AM. THEN...AS THE SOUTHERN
PIECE OF ENERGY TRACKS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY THE
EASTERN U.S...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD
FRONT...AND ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO LINGER/REDEVELOP LATER FRI AND
POSSIBLY INTO SAT. DEPENDING ON HOW THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND
TIMING OF ASSOCIATED SFC BOUNDARIES TRACK FRI-SAT...THERE COULD BE
ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR P-TYPE ISSUES WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIP. IN
ADDITION...SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT ANY SOUTHERN PIECES OF ENERGY
AND WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK FURTHER SOUTH WITH LESS IMPACTS ON
OUR REGION. SO...AT THIS TIME...GENERALLY HAVE INDICATED ONLY CHC
POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...MAINLY FOR RAIN SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH SOME
SNOW COULD OCCUR FRI NT INTO SAT DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING AND
TRACK OF SYSTEMS.

SUN...A RETURN TO BELOW...TO POTENTIALLY WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IS
QUITE POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF ANY PREVIOUS SYSTEM. IT SHOULD BE
GENERALLY DRY...ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS OF SNOW OR
RAIN DEPENDING ON INSTABILITY AND OVERALL PROGRESSION OF UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THE EXTENDED...RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD
FAVOR NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR AT LEAST THU-FRI...BEFORE
TRENDING BACK TO BELOW NORMAL BY SAT-SUN. MAX TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 50S IN MOST VALLEYS THU-FRI WITH 40S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SHOULD ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND/OR
SIGNIFICANT DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOP DURING THIS
PERIOD...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR EVEN WARMER TEMPS...PERHAPS
REACHING WELL INTO THE 60S OR HIGHER...BUT PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS AND
PRECIP MOST LIKELY WILL NOT ALLOW FOR FULL WARMING POTENTIAL TO BE
REALIZED. OVERNIGHT LOWS INITIALLY WILL BE COLD FOR WED NT-THU
AM...MAINLY TEENS AND 20S...THEN WARMING INTO THE 30S AND LOWER 40S
FOR THU NT-FRI AM AND MAINLY 30S FOR FRI NT/SAT AM FOR LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND SOME 20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. BY SAT-SUN...MAX
TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY REACH THE 40S IN VALLEYS AND 30S ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN...WITH EVEN COLDER MAX TEMPS POSSIBLE ON SUN. OVERNIGHT MINS
SAT NT/SUN AM SHOULD MAINLY FALL INTO THE 20S FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS
AND TEENS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM...HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WERE ALREADY INCREASING ACROSS
THE REGION...AND WILL THICKEN AND LOWER OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT.

AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES...LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 09Z AND 13Z. ONCE THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH...THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS (MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS LATER IN THE DAY...WILL
CONTINUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING
THE MID AFTERNOON PERIOD. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THERE WILL STILL
BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALSO AFFECTS
THE REGION.

ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A FEW WEATHER FEATURES AFFECTING THE REGION
DURING THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 06Z TUESDAY...MOISTURE IS LIMITED
AND FORCING IS RELATIVELY WEAK...SO FOR THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF
TAF SITES HAVE GENERALLY FORECAST VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE
TAF PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION IS AT KGFL/KPSF...WHERE A TEMPO GROUP
FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS DUE TO SNOW SHOWERS HAS BEEN FORECAST BETWEEN
09Z AND 13Z. OTHERWISE...THE THREAT OF SHOWERS IS LOW AND TIMING
DIFFICULT...SO HAVE ONLY INDICATED VCSH AT THE OTHER TAF SITES
AND DURING OTHER TIMES OF THE TAFS.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE INCREASING AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT TO 5 TO
10 KTS...WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 15 KTS AT KALB. AFTER THE WARM
FRONT THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO 8 TO
12 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 25 KTS DURING MID/LATE MONDAY MORNING.
BY MID AFTERNOON THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WESTERLY AFTER THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH SPEEDS OF 12 TO 18 KTS AND GUSTS OF 20
TO 30 KTS. AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...THE SPEEDS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH.

OUTLOOK...

LATE MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL