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000
FXUS61 KALY 162019
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
419 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.
DESPITE SUNSHINE...IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE MID MARCH. THE HIGH WILL
DOMINATE THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TRENDING
TOWARD NORMAL LEVELS BY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
TEMPERATURES HAVE REBOUNDED INTO THE 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS AFTER
SNOWFALL HAS MELTED IN MOST EXPOSED AREAS THIS MORNING UNDER THE
HIGH APRIL SUN ANGLE. WINDS ARE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AT THIS TIME
BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 15 KNOTS POSSIBLE.
THIS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AS WE GO INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL FURTHER BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH THE CENTER
BEING RIGHT OVER OUR CWA. AS A RESULT...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AND TEMPERATURES WILL DROP AS WE GO INTO THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH VALUES
RANGING FROM THE MID TEENS IN THE HIGH TERRAIN TO THE LOWER 20S IN
THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION. WE ARE FORECASTING TO TIE A RECORD
LOW WHICH IS 21 THAT WAS SET BACK IN 1971.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE KEEPING WINDS LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. LATEST 12Z MODEL AND NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE CENTER
OF A LARGE SURFACE HIGH MOVING NORTHEAST INTO MAINE AS WE GO THROUGH
THE DAY ON THURSDAY. WITH EASTERLY WINDS AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONJUNCTION WITH A WEAK SURFACE WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN...A SOUTHEASTERLY TO EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE REGION. T850 AND T925 PROFILES SHOW COLD AIR FUNNELING
DOWN EQUATORWARD ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.
THIS WILL FUNNEL IN COOLER CONDITIONS FOR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WITH
T850 RANGING BETWEEN -2C AND -5C AND T925 RANGING BETWEEN -1C AND
1C. THIS WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO HAVE SOME GRADIENT DEVELOPING
BASED OFF OF TERRAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL STRUGGLE
TO GET OUT OF THE 40S FOR THE ADIRONDACKS AND ESPECIALLY IN THE
BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS WHERE DOWN SLOPPING WINDS
WILL CAUSE LOCAL VALLEY AREAS TO REACH THE LOWER AND MID 50S UNDER
TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE
WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOW TO
UPPER 20S WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS

AS WE GO INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY...LATEST PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE
SHOWS A PROGRESSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH A WEAK SURFACE FRONT
THAT IS VERY LIMITED IN MOISTURE SOURCES. THIS WILL LIMIT QPF TO
AREAS WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WHERE THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE EXISTS. SOME
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A SOUTHERLY STREAM JET STREAK THAT WILL PHASE
INTO THE NORTHERLY FLOW THAT MIGHT ENHANCE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS FOR
GREATER QPF AMOUNTS. AT THIS TIME...DUE TO INITIAL LIMITED MOISTURE
SOURCES AND THE JET STREAK BEING DISPLACED FURTHER EAST OF THE
REGION WHEN DYNAMICS BECOME FAVORABLE..CHANCES OF A HIGH QPF
SITUATION ARE LIMITED BUT WILL BE MONITORED. DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
TRENDS IN THE EVENING HOURS WILL SUPPORT RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE
HIGHEST TERRAIN. OTHERWISE...LOWEST POPS WILL EXIST SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION FARTHEST REMOVED FROM THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH LOCATION. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S IN HIGH TERRAIN TO UPPER 50S IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM LOW TO MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE ECMWF IS NOW TRENDING WARMER...AND THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
BEGIN ON THE WET SIDE...WITH SHOWERS FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND...
BUT THINGS WILL QUICKLY DRY OUT AS A COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM JAMES BAY
AND ONTARIO.  A RELATIVELY WEAK AND MOISTURE-STARVED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...RENDERING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS FOR MONDAY.  CHC POPS WILL LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY...
THOUGH...GIVEN THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY OF WHERE THIS WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACTUALLY ENDS UP AS IT TAPS ON INCREASING GULF MOISTURE.
EVENTUALLY...A LARGE RIDGE OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE POURS DOWN
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY FINALLY
BE DRY AGAIN.

DESPITE IT BEING AN ARCTIC HIGH MOVING IN FOR WEDNESDAY...THIS WILL
BE A WELL MODIFIED AIR MASS...AND TEMPERATURES FROM ABOUT THE UPPER
50S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES ON TUESDAY WILL BE ONLY A FEW DEGREES
COOLER ON WEDNESDAY.  SATURDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE
PERIOD...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.
SUNDAY...LIKE WEDNESDAY...WILL SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND
60S...AND MONDAY WILL BE ALMOST A CARBON COPY OF TUESDAY/S WARMTH.
LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S
RANGE...AND THESE WILL REBOUND ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT...AND ANOTHER 5 DEGREES FOR MONDAY NIGHT.  TUESDAY NIGHT
SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER UNDER PARTIAL CLEARING.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...18Z/THURSDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND CRESTS OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY. ANY LINGERING FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL
DISSIPATE LATER THIS AFTERNOON THEN ONLY SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

BRISK AND GUSTY MAINLY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL WEAKEN LATER
THIS AFTERNOON EVENTUALLY BECOMING CALM FOR THE OVERNIGHT. A LIGHT
EASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
OLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH THE REGION EARLIER IN THE DAY
PROVIDED A HALF AN INCH TO ONE AND AND A HALF INCHES OF RAINFALL
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WAS FOLLOWED BY SNOWFALL RANGING FROM AROUND
ONE INCH TO AROUND FOUR INCHES OF SNOWFALL.

WITH A STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE...MOST OF THE SNOW SHOULD BE GONE BY
DARK. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE WOODED AREAS...AND OF COURSE
PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE OLD SNOW COVERED STILL REMAIN.

THE WIND WILL GO CALM TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW FREEZING
REGION WIDE.

DRY WEATHER WITH A SLOW MODERATING TREND FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
DAYTIME WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER...GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHEAST 5 TO 15 MPH.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON SATURDAY. SOME OF THIS
MIGHT BE MIXED WITH SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. AT THIS POINT...THE QPF
LOOKS LIGHT...BELOW A QUARTER OF AN INCH IN THE VALLEYS...BUT WE
MIGHT EXCEED THAT AMOUNT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREENS OF VERMONT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAVE LEAD THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. FLOOD WARNINGS
ARE IN EFFECT AT MANY RIVER POINTS IN THESE AREAS WITH MAINLY
MODERATE FLOODING OCCURRING. HOWEVER THERE IS MAJOR FLOODING
OCCURRING ALONG THE SCHROON RIVER AT RIVERBANK. LARGER MAIN STEM
RIVERS WILL CREST TODAY OR HAVE CRESTED.

COLDER AIR WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING HAS MOVED INTO OUR AREA.
ANY LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION WAS IN THE FORM OF SNOW...SLOWING
DOWN THE RUNOFF. SOME SMALLER STREAMS MAY SEE ADDITIONAL SMALL RISES
TODAY AND THURSDAY FROM SNOW MELT.

DRY WEATHER IS IN STORE LATER TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AND RIVERS WILL
RECEDE LATER THIS WEEK AFTER SOME RIVERS REACHING CREST SOMETIME
TODAY OR EARLY TOMORROW. THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE
SATURDAY. SOME PRECIPITATION COULD FALL AS WET SNOW ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. QPF AMOUNTS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT AT THIS TIME WHICH
WILL BE UPDATED WITH FUTURE FORECASTS.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFM
NEAR TERM...LFM
SHORT TERM...LFM
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/LFM
HYDROLOGY...SND/HWJIV/LFM







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000
FXUS61 KBOX 161957
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
357 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY...BUT SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER TO THE
REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. WEAK OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING A
SHOWER OR TWO LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY ACROSS THE
SOUTH COAST. OTHERWISE...IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH MONDAY. A
COLD FRONT COULD TRIGGER SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING...

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO CLIMB BENEATH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AS
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS DIMINISH AND TURN MORE NORTHERLY. WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES TOP OUT AROUND THE LOW-40S WITH HIGHS AROUND THE
MID-40S ALONG THE SOUTH-COAST AND THROUGH THE LOWER-CT RIVER
VALLEY.

TONIGHT...

SURFACE HIGH PRES SWEEPING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. IN
RESPONSE...SURFACE WINDS GRADUALLY BACK TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST.
ONSHORE FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MAINE ANTICIPATED FOR THE EASTERN
SHORELINE WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SCATTERED CLOUDS...WHEREAS
ACROSS THE INTERIOR UNDER CLEAR SKIES LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR EFFECTIVE NOCTURNAL COOLING BENEATH AN UNSEASONABLY COLD
AIRMASS. COULD PLAUSIBLY SEE TEMPERATURES FALL TO NEAR RECORD LOWS
/MAINLY FOR WORCESTER AND HARTFORD/. LOWS AROUND THE LOW- TO MID-20S
FOR THE INTERIOR...WARMER AROUND THE FREEZING MARK FOR THE SHORES.

KEEP IN MIND THAT THE GROWING SEASON FOR AREAS ALONG THE SOUTH-
COAST DOES NOT BEGIN UNTIL APRIL 20TH...SO THERE WILL BE NO FREEZE
HEADLINES WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRES SHIFTS NORTHEAST AS AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRES
AND ACCOMPANYING STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFT BACK TO THE NORTH.
TIGHTENING PRES-GRADIENT LENDS TO INCREASING EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW.
THE LONG FETCH OFF THE COLDER WATERS WILL RESULT IN A CHILLY DAY FOR
THE EASTERN-COAST OF NEW ENGLAND. MOISTURE POOLING BENEATH A DRY-AIR
INVERSION COUPLED WITH BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING PER SUNSHINE SHOULD
RESULT IN SCATTERED TO BROKEN DECKS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD. OTHERWISE
ACROSS THE INTERIOR EXPECT A MILDER DAY AS THE COLDER AIRMASS ALOFT
RETREATS NORTH WITH THE SURFACE HIGH PRES. HIGHS IN THE UPPER-40S TO
LOW-50S.

THURSDAY NIGHT...

STALLED OFFSHORE FRONT TO THE SOUTH SHIFTS FURTHER NORTH IN RESPONSE
TO AN AREA OF LOW PRES ALONG THE BOUNDARY. ALONG WITH A CONTINUED
BREEZY ONSHORE EASTERLY FLOW...CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION KEEPS LOWS ALONG THE COASTLINE AROUND THE FREEZING MARK WHILE
ELSEWHERE LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE MID- TO UPPER-20S. EASTERLY WINDS
WILL LIMIT EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING THOUGH SHELTERED VALLEYS
OVER N/W NEW ENGLAND MAY DROP A FEW DEGREES LOWER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* COOL NEAR THE COAST ON FRI...OTHERWISE SEASONABLE TEMPS RETURN
* FEW SHOWERS COULD BRUSH THE CAPE AND ISLANDS SAT
  MORNING...OTHERWISE DRY THROUGH MON
* CHANCE OF SHOWERS MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE EVENING

SPLIT FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE CONTERMINOUS USA WITH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND INFLUENCED MOSTLY BY THE NORTHERN STREAM. MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS DEPICT REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN LARGE SCALE PATTERN BUT WITH
SOME DIFFERENCES ON TIMING AND CONFIGURATION OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY.
OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SUGGEST AN AMPLIFICATION TO THE
FLOW TOWARD THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE 12Z ECMWF AND
GFS DEPICT MILDER 850 MB TEMPS COMPARED WITH THE LAST FEW PRIOR
RUNS.

DETAILS...

FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER REGION BUT SEA BREEZES SHOULD KEEP BOTH
EAST AND SOUTH COASTS QUITE CHILLY GIVEN OCEAN TEMPS STILL IN THE
LOWER 40S ACROSS ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...

SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND REMAINS SANDWICHED BETWEEN NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY. CANNOT RULE OUT A SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWER
HERE AND THERE BUT KEPT POPS IN SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE MOST AREA.
THERE DOES SEEM TO BE JUST ENOUGH OF A RISK FOR A SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM TO BRUSH THE SOUTH COAST AND ISLANDS AND DID KEEP A LOW
CHANCE POP THERE. HOWEVER...LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHETHER THE RAIN
SHIELD WILL ACTUALLY MAKE IT TO THE SOUTH COAST. AS BOTH THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE ENERGY GETS EMBEDDED INTO
THE DENSER UPPER AIR NETWORK...CONFIDENCE SHOULD GROW ON THE
EVENTUAL SOLUTION.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE OF REMAINING DRY THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MON MORNING
AND MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF STILL REMAINING DRY THROUGH MON
AFTERNOON. OVERRUNNING WARM AIR AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM WILL LIKELY
BRING MID TO HIGH CLOUDS INTO FORECAST AREA MON
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES...BUT LIKELY
REMAINING DRY IN OUR AREA. SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW COMBINED WITH
850 MB TEMPS IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 6C TO 8C MAY ALLOW AFTERNOON
TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 60S TO THE EAST COAST.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...

THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW BRINGS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION
TUE. THERE IS ALSO SOME SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY THAT MAY OR MAY
NOT REMAIN DETACHED FROM THE NORTHERN FLOW. FOR NOW THINK QPF WILL
BE FAIRLY LIGHT BUT THIS COULD CHANGE IF THE SOUTHERN STREAM
SHOULD END UP PHASING WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM.

WEDNESDAY...

DRY AND CONSIDERABLY COOLER AIR FOLLOWS IN THE N TO NW FLOW
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...ALTHOUGH THE APRIL SUN AND DOWNSLOPING SHOULD
TEMPER THE IMPACT FROM COOLER TEMPS ALOFT WITH HIGHS PROBABLY NEAR
SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR. NW WINDS DIMINISH BACKING OUT OF THE N AND GRADUALLY TO THE
NE. WILL SEE WINDS ON THE INCREASE OUT OF THE E THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SCT LOW-VFR CIGS. OVER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING...BKN-OVC LOW-VFR TO MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND WITH CONTINUED BREEZY EASTERLY WINDS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY...VFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF MVFR
IN SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF A PYM-WST LINE.

SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

GALES HAVE CEASED RESULTING IN ALL WATERS BUT NARRAGANSETT BAY
AND BOSTON HARBOR IN A SMALL-CRAFT ADVISORY FOR BOTH WINDS AND
SEAS. WILL SEE NW WINDS DIMINISH TOWARDS EVENING WHILE BACKING OUT
OF THE N. WHILE INNER-WATER SMALL CRAFTS WILL CONCLUDE...OUTER
WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO TO AVERAGE WAVE HEIGHTS OF 6 TO 8 FEET.

SMALL-CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY NEED TO BE HOISTED AGAIN ON THURSDAY
CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT FOR THE INNER WATERS AS EASTERLY
FLOW INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO AN AREA OF LOW PRES DEVELOPING OFF
THE MID-ATLANTIC WATERS.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FRI THROUGH SAT MORNING...LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED.

SAT AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...NW FLOW BEHIND LOW PRES THAT FORMS ON
COLD FRONT MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
HEADLINES.

SUNDAY THROUGH MON MORNING...LIGHT WINDS AND SUBSIDING SEAS
ANTICIPATED.

MON AFTERNOON...INCREASING SW FLOW AND FETCH MAY CAUSE WINDS AND
SEAS TO REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS OF 25 KT GUSTS AT
LEAST ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH FETCH TO
BUILD SEAS TO 5 FEET OR MORE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF
NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SEVERAL POINTS ALONG THE CT RIVER ARE FLOODING OR WILL BE IN MINOR
FLOOD SOON. WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE CT RIVER AT...

THOMPSONVILLE
HARTFORD
MIDDLE HADDAM
MONTAGUE
NORTHAMPTON

RAINFALL YESTERDAY AND SNOWMELT OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS HAS THE
MAINSTEM CT RIVER IN MINOR FLOOD...ALTHOUGH PROJECTED TO GO INTO
MODERATE FLOOD AT MIDDLE HADDAM.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>234-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SIPPRELL/GAF
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...THOMPSON
AVIATION...SIPPRELL/THOMPSON
MARINE...SIPPRELL/THOMPSON
HYDROLOGY...DELLICARPINI/THOMPSON



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000
FXUS61 KOKX 161953
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
353 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTHEAST OF AREA ON SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS BACK OVER THE WATERS ON SUNDAY AND LASTS
INTO MONDAY. A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH A CLEAR
SKY AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT IS
DETERMINING WHERE WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR WITHIN
THE ZONES WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS ALREADY STARTED. COMPLICATING
THE FORECAST IS A PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT COULD POTENTIALLY BE JUST
TIGHT ENOUGH TO KEEP WINDS FROM GOING LIGHT/VARIABLE OR CALM AND
PREVENT DECOUPLING. THIS WOULD HAVE MORE IMPLICATIONS OVER COASTAL
CT...LONG ISLAND...AND ZONES ADJACENT TO THE CITY WHERE FREEZE
WARNING CRITERIA MIGHT NOT THEN BE MET.

THINKING IS THAT THE CITY...HUDSON AND NASSAU COUNTIES WILL LIKELY
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING...SO THE FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELED HERE.
EASTERN HALVES OF UNION AND ESSEX COUNTIES COULD POSSIBLY REMAIN
ABOVE FREEZING...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO GO WITHOUT A WARNING
HERE. THE REST OF THE ZONES IN THEIR GROWING SEASON WILL HAVE A
FREEZE WARNING FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. NO LOW
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO TIE OR BREAK RECORDS...BUT WILL AT LEAST COME
CLOSE. PLEASE REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOSTLY SUNNY ON THURSDAY WITH A CONTINUATION OF BELOW-NORMAL HIGHS.
MIXING WILL PROBABLY BE LIMITED TO AROUND 925MB WHERE THE FCST
AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -3C AT THIS HEIGHT...SIMILAR TO WHAT
THEY WERE THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE THEREFORE GONE NEAR THE COLDER NAM
MOS GUIDANCE. HIGHS ONLY 45-50 FOR THE MOST PART.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL BE IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THURSDAY
NIGHT...RESULTING IN A NE TO ENE LOW LEVEL FLOW. MODELS AGREE THAT
THIS ADVECTS IN SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE RESULTING CLOUD COVER WILL SERVE TO KEEP TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING
WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS STARTED....SO NO FREEZE WATCH/WARNING
CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.

THE DEPTH OF THIS MOISTURE IS SHALLOW...ONLY UP THROUGH ABOUT 925
MB. NAM...AND TO A LESSER DEGREE...GFS SHOWS SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL
LIFT MOVING THROUGH DURING FRIDAY. NOT SURE IF THIS WILL BE ENOUGH
TO WARRANT POPS DURING THE DAY...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING HOW SHALLOW
THIS MOISTURE IS COMBINED WITH FAIRLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AND A SUN
ANGLE THAT COULD ERODE CLOUDS/MOISTURE. HOWEVER...DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO REMOVE THE CURRENT SLIGHT CHC POPS THAT WERE IN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. PCPN TYPE WOULD BE DRIZZLE DUE TO SHALLOW DEPTH
OF THE MOISTURE. SIDED WITH THE COLDER NAM MOS ONCE AGAIN DUE TO THE
ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER AND EAST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SPOTTY SHOWERS/DRIZZLE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING
AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE GREAT
LAKES. MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SATURDAY LOOKS
LIMITED SO HAVE DROPPED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE DURING THE MORNING.
CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY...AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKENDS
SHOULD BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60...WHICH IS SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST MONDAY...CROSSING THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POP FOR SHOWERS
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE.
ABOVE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK...WITH HIGHS DURING THE DAY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND
NIGHT TIME LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA INTO TONIGHT...THEN SHIFTS
NE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON THURSDAY.

VFR.

NW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT. GUSTS WILL END AROUND
22Z WITH SUSTAINED WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISHING THIS EVENING AS
DIRECTIONS VEER TO THE N.

WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NE AT 5-12 KT OVERNIGHT. WINDS CONTINUE TO
VEER TO THE E THURSDAY MORNING WITH SPEEDS INCREASING 10 TO 15 KT.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: END TIME OF GUSTS MAY BE OFF +/- AN HOUR.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: END TIME OF GUSTS MAY BE OFF +/- AN HOUR.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: END TIME OF GUSTS MAY BE OFF +/- AN HOUR.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: END TIME OF GUSTS MAY BE OFF +/- AN HOUR.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: END TIME OF GUSTS MAY BE OFF +/- AN HOUR.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: END TIME OF GUSTS MAY BE OFF +/- AN HOUR.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.THURSDAY...VFR. E WIND GUST AROUND 20KT POSSIBLE.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...PSBL MVFR CIGS.
.SATURDAY...PSBL MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW CHANCE OF -SHRA.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...VFR
.MONDAY...VFR

&&

.MARINE...
A BUILDING SE SWELL IS EXPECTED TO KEEP SEAS JUST ABOVE 5 FT ON THE
OCEAN WATERS. THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OVER THE WESTERN OCEAN WATERS
THROUGH EARLY EVENING WHERE SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT BEING
MET...HOWEVER...THE EXPECTATION IS FOR BUILDING SEAS AND
STRENGTHENING WINDS LATER ON IN THE NIGHT AS WINDS SHIFT MORE INTO
AN ONSHORE FLOW.

SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN WATERS ON THURSDAY. FOR THE
OTHER WATERS...OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE. A DECENT ONSHORE
FLOW WILL LIKELY KEEP SEAS ON THE OCEAN ABOVE THE OCEAN THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA THROUGH THIS PERIOD. SCA
COULD BE NEEDED FOR FRIDAY AS WELL.

SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES
SOUTHEAST OF THE OCEAN WATERS. SEAS SUBSIDE TO BELOW SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS SATURDAY AND REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THEN NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
THAT WOULD HAVE HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS IS CURRENTLY FORECASTED
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WEEK.

NOTE...MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER.
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY CAUSE WATER LEVELS TO CONTINUE
TO RISE THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE FLOOD LEVELS
TO BE REACHED. MONITOR THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS FROM NWS TAUNTON MA.

NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS FOR THURSDAY MORNING APRIL 17:

EWR - 30 IN 1980  FORECAST LOW - 34
BDR - 30 IN 1962  FORECAST LOW - 32
NYC - 28 IN 1875  FORECAST LOW - 35
LGA - 32 IN 1980  FORECAST LOW - 37
JFK - 33 IN 1980  FORECAST LOW - 34
ISP - 30 IN 2005  FORECAST LOW - 31

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR CTZ009>012.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR NYZ069>071-
     073-078>081.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR NJZ004-
     103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/FIG
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...JC/FIG
HYDROLOGY...JC/FIG
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KALY 161754
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
154 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.
DESPITE SUNSHINE...IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE MID MARCH. THE HIGH WILL
DOMINATE THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TRENDING
TOWARD NORMAL LEVELS BY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY WILL FEEL LIKE MID MARCH WITH HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE
MAINLY IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S THIS AFTERNOON. BRISK AND GUSTY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ONLY ADD TO THE CHILL. CURRENT
TEMPERATURES ARE RANGING FROM THE MID 20S IN THE ADIRONDACKS TO
LOWER AND MID 30S IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. A BIT COOLER TO START THE
DAY DUE TO A PREVIOUS COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION
EARLIER THIS MORNING PRODUCING 1 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW REPORTED
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...PLEASE REFER TO OUR PUBLIC INFORMATION
STATEMENT.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY.
LOOKING AT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WITH FLOW LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN TO OUR WEST ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK. WILL HAVE GOOD MIXING
SO WINDS WILL BE RATHER BRISK AND GUSTY ESPECIALLY INTO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. THE WIND WILL
DIMINISH QUICKLY AND THE SKY WILL BE CLEAR DURING EVENING.
OVERNIGHT...SOME HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS MIGHT INCREASE DUE TO
WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT. EVEN SO...NEARLY IDEAL RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT. THE WILD CARD IS HOW FAST THE SNOW COVER
WILL MELT TODAY. GIVEN A STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE...ALONG WITH ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES...WE BELIEVE MOST OF IT WILL MELT. IF THAT
ISN`T THE CASE...TEMPERATURES COULD EVEN COLDER. (OUR FORECAST AGAIN
ASSUMES MOST AREAS SOUTH OF THE ADIRONDACK PARK WILL HAVE VERY
LITTLE IF ANY SNOW LEFT BY TONIGHT).

EVEN SO...TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S
FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD...TEENS NORTH.

THESE VALUES SHOULD JUST MISS RECORD LOWS. THE RECORD LOW AT ALBANY
FOR APRIL 17TH IS 21 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1971. IF SNOW REMAINS ON
THE GRASS BY TONIGHT...THERE IS AN INCREASED POSSIBILITY OF THIS
RECORD BEING ECLIPSED.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETREAT TO OUR NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. HIGHS THAT
MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST OFFER A GREATER OPPORTUNITY FOR A QUICKER
WARMUP DUE TO A MORE SSW FLOW. A HIGH TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL MEAN
MORE OF A SE FLOW WHICH THIS TIME OF YEAR USUALLY MEANS LESS OF WARM
UP. THE FLOW WILL BE WEAK...SO SUNSHINE WILL BE MAIN PLAYER
MODERATING THE AIR MASS ON THURSDAY. WITH MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS...WE
LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO REACH BACK TO AROUND 50 ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...LOWER TO MID 50S MOST VALLEY AREAS.

ANY LIGHT BREEZE LOOKS TO DECOUPLE THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH A MAINLY
CLEAR SKY EVERYONE LOOKS TO GET BELOW FREEZING ONCE
MORE...GENERALLY IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30.

FRIDAY...STILL WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE A LITTLE MORE BACK INTO THE 50S...UPPER 50S FROM ALBANY
SOUTHWARD. THESE VALUES WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS FOR
MID APRIL.

FRIDAY NIGHT...A CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH OUR
NORTHWESTERN ZONES. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS
AS WELL. IT MIGHT BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
MORE ABOUT THE CLIPPER WILL BE FOUND IN LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OUT ON THE WET SIDE WITH SHOWERS
EXPECTED FROM SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. DRIER WEATHER IS
THEN EXPECTED FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING. WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED AGAIN FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY

HERE ARE SOME SPECIFICS REGARDING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. ON SATURDAY
A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FA WITH A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE ALLOT OF MOISTURE WITH THE SYSTEM WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
DIMINISHING GREATLY AFTER 00Z SUNDAY. HIGHS ON SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S WITH THE LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN
THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...18Z/THURSDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND CRESTS OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY. ANY LINGERING FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL
DISSIPATE LATER THIS AFTERNOON THEN ONLY SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

BRISK AND GUSTY MAINLY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL WEAKEN LATER
THIS AFTERNOON EVENTUALLY BECOMING CALM FOR THE OVERNIGHT. A LIGHT
EASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT-FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUN: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ALL AREAS RECEIVED A HALF INCH TO OVER AN INCH OF RAIN IN THE LAST
24 HOURS. IN ADDITION MOST AREAS RECEIVED ACCUMULATION
SNOW...GENERALLY IN THE 1-4 INCH RANGE...ALTHOUGH SOME PLACES IN
CONNECTICUT LOOKED TO HAVE PICKED UP TO 6 INCHES.

WITH A STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE...MOST OF THE SNOW SHOULD BE GONE BY
DARK. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE WOODED AREAS...AND OF COURSE
PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE OLD SNOW COVERED LINGERED.

IT WILL BE A CHILLY AND BREEZY DAY WITH WEST OR NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS
TO 30 MPH OR A LITTLE HIGHER.

THE WIND WILL GO CALM TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW FREEZING
REGIONWIDE.

DRY WEATHER WITH A SLOW MODERATING TREND FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
DAYTIME WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER...GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHEAST 5 TO 15 MPH.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON SATURDAY. SOME OF THIS
MIGHT BE MIXED WITH SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. AT THIS POINT...THE QPF
LOOKS LIGHT...BELOW A QUARTER OF AN INCH IN THE VALLEYS...BUT WE
MIGHT EXCEED THAT AMOUNT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREENS OF VERMONT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAVE LEAD THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. FLOOD WARNINGS
ARE IN EFFECT AT MANY RIVER POINTS IN THESE AREAS WITH MAINLY
MODERATE FLOODING OCCURRING. HOWEVER THERE IS MAJOR FLOODING
OCCURRING ALONG THE SCHROON RIVER AT RIVERBANK. LARGER MAIN STEM
RIVERS WILL CREST TODAY OR HAVE CRESTED.

COLDER AIR WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING HAS MOVED INTO OUR AREA.
ANY LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION WAS IN THE FORM OF SNOW...SLOWING
DOWN THE RUNOFF. SOME SMALLER STREAMS MAY SEE ADDITIONAL SMALL RISES
TODAY AND THURSDAY FROM SNOW MELT.

DRY WEATHER IS IN STORE LATER TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AND RIVERS WILL
RECEDE LATER THIS WEEK. THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE
SATURDAY. SOME PRECIPITATION COULD FALL AS WET SNOW ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. QPF AMOUNTS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT FROM THIS VANTAGE
POINT.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...IAA/LFM
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...IAA/SND/HWJIV








000
FXUS61 KBOX 161753
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
153 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY...BUT SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER TO THE
REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. WEAK OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING A
SHOWER OR TWO LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY THEN DRY
THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT COULD TRIGGER SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING...

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO CLIMB BENEATH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AS
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS DIMINISH AND TURN MORE NORTHERLY. WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES TOP OUT AROUND THE LOW-40S WITH HIGHS AROUND THE
MID-40S ALONG THE SOUTH-COAST AND THROUGH THE LOWER-CT RIVER
VALLEY.

TONIGHT...

SURFACE HIGH PRES SWEEPING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. IN
RESPONSE...SURFACE WINDS GRADUALLY BACK TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST.
ONSHORE FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MAINE ANTICIPATED FOR THE EASTERN
SHORELINE WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SCATTERED CLOUDS...WHEREAS
ACROSS THE INTERIOR UNDER CLEAR SKIES LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR EFFECTIVE NOCTURNAL COOLING BENEATH AN UNSEASONABLY COLD
AIRMASS. COULD PLAUSIBLY SEE TEMPERATURES FALL TO NEAR RECORD LOWS
/MAINLY FOR WORCESTER AND HARTFORD/. LOWS AROUND THE LOW- TO MID-20S
FOR THE INTERIOR...WARMER AROUND THE FREEZING MARK FOR THE SHORES.

KEEP IN MIND THAT THE GROWING SEASON FOR AREAS ALONG THE SOUTH-
COAST DOES NOT BEGIN UNTIL APRIL 20TH...SO THERE WILL BE NO FREEZE
HEADLINES WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

THURSDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRES SHIFTS NORTHEAST AS AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRES
AND ACCOMPANYING STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFT BACK TO THE NORTH.
TIGHTENING PRES-GRADIENT LENDS TO INCREASING EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW.
THE LONG FETCH OFF THE COLDER WATERS WILL RESULT IN A CHILLY DAY FOR
THE EASTERN-COAST OF NEW ENGLAND. MOISTURE POOLING BENEATH A DRY-AIR
INVERSION COUPLED WITH BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING PER SUNSHINE SHOULD
RESULT IN SCATTERED TO BROKEN DECKS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD. OTHERWISE
ACROSS THE INTERIOR EXPECT A MILDER DAY AS THE COLDER AIRMASS ALOFT
RETREATS NORTH WITH THE SURFACE HIGH PRES. HIGHS IN THE UPPER-40S TO
LOW-50S.

THURSDAY NIGHT...

STALLED OFFSHORE FRONT TO THE SOUTH SHIFTS FURTHER NORTH IN RESPONSE
TO AN AREA OF LOW PRES ALONG THE BOUNDARY. ALONG WITH A CONTINUED
BREEZY ONSHORE EASTERLY FLOW...CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION KEEPS LOWS ALONG THE COASTLINE AROUND THE FREEZING MARK WHILE
ELSEWHERE LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE MID- TO UPPER-20S. EASTERLY WINDS
WILL LIMIT EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING THOUGH SHELTERED VALLEYS
OVER N/W NEW ENGLAND MAY DROP A FEW DEGREES LOWER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* CHILLY THU NIGHT AND UNSEASONABLY COOL NEAR THE COAST FRI
* MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH MON
* CHANCE OF SHOWERS MON NIGHT AND TUE

AN ACTIVE NORTHERN JET STREAM WILL EXIST THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE
A SEPARATE SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW CUTS OFF AND MEANDERS OFF THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
NORTHEAST WILL KEEP IT COOLER THAN NORMAL THROUGH FRI...ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE COAST. THEN TEMPERATURES MODERATE TO NEAR SEASONAL
NORMALS OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL
LIKELY BRING SHOWERS MON NIGHT AND TUE.

DAILY DETAILS...

THURSDAY NIGHT...

VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
AND RIDGING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT THU NIGHT...BUT NOT QUITE AS CHILLY AS WED
NIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S EXCEPT MID 30S ISLANDS.

FRIDAY...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EASTWARD BUT THERE WILL BE
A COOL NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW OVER THE REGION. EXPECT LARGE
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES FROM THE COAST TO LOCATIONS FARTHER INLAND.
ACROSS EASTERN MA THE VERY CHILLY OCEAN WATERS WITH SSTS IN THE
LOWER 40S WILL ADVECT THIS VERY COOL AND SHALLOW MARITIME AIRMASS
INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN. THEREFORE ONLY EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE 40S
OVER EASTERN MA. THE APRIL SUN WILL HAVE MORE OF AN EFFECT IN THE
INTERIOR...WITH MID 50S IN THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...

MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM
WAVES. ALL MODELS HAVE WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SOUTHEAST OF THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK. THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS SUGGEST IT IS CLOSE
ENOUGH TO BRING A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER MAINLY SOUTHEASTERN
AREAS LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. BUT THE ECMWF IS FASTER WITH
A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WHICH KEEPS US DRY WITH THE LOW FAR ENOUGH
OFFSHORE. EXPECT THE REST OF SATURDAY TO BE PARTLY CLOUDY. THE
GFS HAS THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COOL POCKET OF AIR
OVERHEAD WHICH COULD LEAD TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY
BUT AGAIN OTHER MODELS ARE DRIER. ANYWAY...MUCH ADO ABOUT A SMALL
CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION PROVIDING DRY AND
SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER. HIGHS IN THE 50S SUNDAY. LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT MAINLY 35-40. HIGHS MON A LITTLE WARMER...IN THE UPPER 50S
AND LOWER 60S MONDAY. SUNSHINE WILL FADE BEHIND INCREASING
CLOUDINESS DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCE
ON THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. THE GENERAL
CONSENSUS IS THAT ANY CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE CONFINED
TO FAR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARD EVENING.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION MON NIGHT AND BEGINS TO WASH
OUT OVER THE AREA. SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ON PLACEMENT OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT...WITH GFS FAVORING A MID ATLANTIC LOW
AND THE ECMWF WINDING UP A STORM SYSTEM OFF THE CAROLINAS. THE NET
EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COULD SIMPLY BE A BAND OF LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS WITH A DECAYING FRONT. STILL LOOKING AT HIGH TEMPS
IN THE LOWER 60S TUE DESPITE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR. NW WINDS DIMINISH BACKING OUT OF THE N AND GRADUALLY TO THE
NE. WILL SEE WINDS ON THE INCREASE OUT OF THE E THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SCT LOW-VFR CIGS. OVER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING...BKN-OVC LOW-VFR TO MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND WITH CONTINUED BREEZY EASTERLY WINDS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

FRIDAY...VFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF MVFR IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST HALF.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

GALES HAVE CEASED RESULTING IN ALL WATERS BUT NARRAGANSETT BAY
AND BOSTON HARBOR IN A SMALL-CRAFT ADVISORY FOR BOTH WINDS AND
SEAS. WILL SEE NW WINDS DIMINISH TOWARDS EVENING WHILE BACKING OUT
OF THE N. WHILE INNER-WATER SMALL CRAFTS WILL CONCLUDE...OUTER
WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO TO AVERAGE WAVE HEIGHTS OF 6 TO 8 FEET.

SMALL-CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY NEED TO BE HOISTED AGAIN ON THURSDAY
CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT FOR THE INNER WATERS AS EASTERLY
FLOW INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO AN AREA OF LOW PRES DEVELOPING OFF
THE MID-ATLANTIC WATERS.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

FRIDAY...INCREASING ENE WIND WAVES. OVERALL SEAS STILL 5 TO 7 FT
OVER THE OUTER WATERS.

FRI NIGHT AND SAT...LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO PASS SOUTHEAST OF THE
BENCHMARK OF 40N 70W. NORTHEAST WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AND SEAS
BEGIN TO VERY SLOWLY SUBSIDE.

SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY...SEAS FINALLY SUBSIDE TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 5 FT OVER THE OUTER WATERS. NORTHWEST WINDS
BECOME NORTHEAST AGAIN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND...
BUT RELATIVELY LIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

SEVERAL POINTS ALONG THE CT RIVER ARE FLOODING OR WILL BE IN MINOR
FLOOD SOON. WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE CT RIVER AT...

THOMPSONVILLE
HARTFORD
MIDDLE HADDAM
MONTAGUE
NORTHAMPTON

OTHER POINTS ALONG THE CT RIVER WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS WATER
CONTINUES TO RUNOFF FROM RAINS OVERNIGHT AND YESTERDAY AS WELL AS
DRAINAGE FROM RAIN AND MELTING SNOW ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND. IT
MAY TAKE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK FOR SOME OF THE WATERS TO
RECEDE BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT SOME OF THESE POINTS. ALSO...NOTE
THAT IT IS POSSIBLE SOME OF THESE MAY ALSO REACH MODERATE FLOOD AT
SOME POINT LATER IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS WELL BEFORE THEY
RECEDE.

OUTSIDE OF THE CT RIVER...THE PAWCATUCK AT WESTERLY CONTINUES TO
RISE AS WELL AND MAY NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL FLOODING
LATER IN THE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. BUT GIVEN THERE IS TIME TO MONITOR
THE RESPONSE NO WARNING IS CURRENTLY OUT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ231>234-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SIPPRELL/GAF
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...GAF
AVIATION...SIPPRELL/GAF
MARINE...SIPPRELL/GAF
HYDROLOGY...DOODY/GAF




000
FXUS61 KOKX 161747
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
147 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TODAY AND DRIFTS NORTHEAST
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS MULTIPLE LOW PRESSURE AREAS RIDE A
STALLED FRONT TO THE EAST. THE HIGH FINALLY PUSHES OFF TO THE
EAST BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WITH LOW PRESSURE RETURNING FOR MID
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO TEMPS AND DEW PTS TO REFLECT CURRENT
OBS. LOWERED HIGH TEMP FCST SLIGHTLY IN SPOTS.

RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY. WITH MIXING TO AROUND 3500
FT...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
40S. NORMAL HIGHS ARE AROUND 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS SURFACE
HIGH REMAINS TO THE NORTHEAST AND RIDGES DOWN ALONG THE EASTERN
SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS. THE COLD AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN APPROACH OR FALL
BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE AREA. A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR
THE SAME AREAS THAT HAD THE FREEZE WARNING THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...THERE IS LESS CERTAINTY OF WIDESPREAD FREEZING
TEMPERATURES BEING REALIZED ACROSS THE CITY AND ADJACENT ZONES.
NO RECORDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BROKEN TONIGHT UNLESS TEMPERATURES
FALL LOWER THAN FORECAST AS SKIES WILL BE CLEAR AND WINDS WILL
INITIALLY BE LIGHT IN THE EVENING. THEN WITH THE HIGH BUILDING TO
THE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHEAST BRINGING IN
COOLER NORTHERN ATLANTIC AIR LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
THURSDAYS HIGHS WILL ONLY BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER THAN
TODAYS HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
INITIALLY DRY WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE
HIGH PUSHES NORTH AND EAST WHILE THE AREA REMAINS UNDER BROAD
RIDGING. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT ALONG A
STALLED FRONT OFFSHORE THAT COULD BRING LIGHT PCPN INTO THE AREA BY
FRIDAY MORNING...THEN SLOWLY SPREADING TO THE NORTH FRI NIGHT INTO
SAT. 00Z GFS A BIT MORE PRONOUNCED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW AND
THE RESULTING PCPN WITH THE SUGGESTION OF INTERACTION BETWEEN A
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH/CLOSED
LOW. ALL OTHER MODELS KEEP A DISTINCT SEPARATION BETWEEN THE TWO SO
WENT AHEAD AND MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT CHC/CHC POPS FOR NOW WITH
UNCERTAINTY ON JUST HOW WIDESPREAD THE PCPN OCCURS. AN APPROACHING
FRONT SAT COULD TRIGGER SCT RAIN SHOWERS AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH. THINGS THEN DRY OUT FOR SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY WITH ZONAL FLOW
SETTING UP ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH INTO THE
NORTHEAST.

SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES IN THE HANDLING OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM NEXT WEEK. 00Z GFS LINGERS THE HIGH OVER THE NORTHEAST THEN
BRINGS A WEAK FRONT IN FROM THE WEST WHILE ECMWF AND CMC BOTH
DEVELOP A DECENT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF COASTAL FLORIDA AND TRACK
TO THE NORTH ALONG A STALLED FRONT. FLOW ALOFT SUGGESTS MORE OF A
GFS SOLUTION IN THIS CASE...SO SIDED MORE TO A GFS/WPC
BLEND...BRINGING POPS IN MONDAY NIGHT AND KEEPING THEM IN PLACE
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH THE FRONT REMAINING IN THE VICINITY AND
MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES RIDING THE FLOW ALOFT.

COOLER WEATHER IN STORE FOR THE TRI STATE AREA THURS NIGHT/FRI AS
THE POSITIONING OF THE HIGH KEEPS A COOLER EASTERLY/NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW DESPITE WAA ALOFT. HOWEVER...AS WINDS SHIFT FOR THE
WEEKEND...EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL. OVERALL...TEMPS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN WARM ENOUGH WITH TIMING OF PCPN TO KEEP PCPN IN
THE FORM OF RAIN. THURS NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT IN THE
EXTENDED...THOUGH CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTING FROST/FREEZE ISSUES IN
AREAS CURRENTLY IN THE GROWING SEASON.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA INTO THIS EVENING...THEN SHIFTS
NE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON THURSDAY.

VFR.

NW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
GUSTS WILL END AROUND 21Z WITH SUSTAINED WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISHING
THIS EVENING AS DIRECTIONS VEER TO THE N.

OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NE AT 5-12 KT. WINDS CONTINUE TO
VEER TO THE E THURSDAY MORNING WITH SPEEDS INCREASING 10 TO 15 KT.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION MAY VARY 310-340 MAG THIS
AFTERNOON. END TIME OF GUSTS MAY BE OFF +/- AN HOUR.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION MAY VARY 320-350 MAG THIS
AFTERNOON. END TIME OF GUSTS MAY BE OFF +/- AN HOUR.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: 310-340 MAG. END TIME OF GUSTS MAY BE OFF +/-
AN HOUR.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: END TIME OF GUSTS MAY BE OFF +/- AN HOUR.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: END TIME OF GUSTS MAY BE OFF +/- AN HOUR.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: END TIME OF GUSTS MAY BE OFF +/- AN HOUR.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY...VFR. E WIND GUST AROUND 20KT POSSIBLE.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...PSBL MVFR CIGS.
.SATURDAY...PSBL MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW CHANCE OF -SHRA.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...VFR
.MONDAY...VFR

&&

.MARINE...
SCA ON THE SOUND/LI BAYS/NY HARBOR HAS BEEN DROPPED NOW THAT
FREQUENT GUSTS ARE BELOW 25 KT. ON THE OCEAN...JUST OCCASIONAL
GUSTS TO 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT A BUILDING SE SWELL IS
EXPECTED TO KEEP SEAS ABOVE 5 FT. THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OVER THE
WESTERN OCEAN WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WHERE SCA
CONDITIONS ARE NOT BEING MET...HOWEVER...THE EXPECTATION IS FOR
BUILDING SEAS AND STRENGTHENING WINDS LATER ON IN THE NIGHT.

SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN WATERS ON THURSDAY. FOR THE
OTHER WATERS...OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE.

BRIEF PERIOD OF 25 KT GUSTS ON THE OCEAN WATERS THURS NIGHT...WITH
WINDS DIMINISHING HEADING INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
WATERS. WINDS REMAIN SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK. SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED ON THE OCEAN DURING THE
PERIOD...FINALLY SUBSIDING BY LATE SAT. SEAS THEN EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW 5 FT INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THEN NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
THAT WOULD HAVE HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS IS CURRENTLY FORECASTED
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WEEK.

NOTE...MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER.
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY CAUSE WATER LEVELS TO CONTINUE
TO RISE THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE FLOOD LEVELS
TO BE REACHED. MONITOR THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS FROM NWS TAUNTON MA.

NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS FOR THURSDAY MORNING APRIL 17:

EWR - 30 IN 1980  FORECAST LOW - 33
BDR - 30 IN 1962  FORECAST LOW - 31
NYC - 28 IN 1875  FORECAST LOW - 34
LGA - 32 IN 1980  FORECAST LOW - 36
JFK - 33 IN 1980  FORECAST LOW - 35
ISP - 30 IN 2005  FORECAST LOW - 30

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     CTZ009>012.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     NYZ069>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     NJZ004-006-103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS/MET
NEAR TERM...JC/MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...JC/SEARS/MET
HYDROLOGY...SEARS/MET
CLIMATE...









000
FXUS61 KALY 161651
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1251 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.
DESPITE SUNSHINE...IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE MID MARCH. THE HIGH
WILL DOMINATE THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TRENDING
TOWARD NORMAL LEVELS BY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY WILL FEEL LIKE MID MARCH WITH HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE
MAINLY IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S THIS AFTERNOON. BRISK AND GUSTY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ONLY ADD TO THE CHILL. CURRENT
TEMPERATURES ARE RANGING FROM THE MID 20S IN THE ADIRONDACKS TO
LOWER AND MID 30S IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. A BIT COOLER TO START THE
DAY DUE TO A PREVIOUS COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION
EARLIER THIS MORNING PRODUCING 1 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW REPORTED
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...PLEASE REFER TO OUR PUBLIC INFORMATION
STATEMENT.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY.
LOOKING AT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WITH FLOW LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN TO OUR WEST ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK. WILL HAVE GOOD MIXING
SO WINDS WILL BE RATHER BRISK AND GUSTY ESPECIALLY INTO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. THE WIND WILL
DIMINISH QUICKLY AND THE SKY WILL BE CLEAR DURING EVENING.
OVERNIGHT...SOME HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS MIGHT INCREASE DUE TO
WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT. EVEN SO...NEARLY IDEAL RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT. THE WILD CARD IS HOW FAST THE SNOW COVER
WILL MELT TODAY. GIVEN A STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE...ALONG WITH ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES...WE BELIEVE MOST OF IT WILL MELT. IF THAT
ISN`T THE CASE...TEMPERATURES COULD EVEN COLDER. (OUR FORECAST AGAIN
ASSUMES MOST AREAS SOUTH OF THE ADIRONDACK PARK WILL HAVE VERY
LITTLE IF ANY SNOW LEFT BY TONIGHT).

EVEN SO...TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S
FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD...TEENS NORTH.

THESE VALUES SHOULD JUST MISS RECORD LOWS. THE RECORD LOW AT ALBANY
FOR APRIL 17TH IS 21 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1971. IF SNOW REMAINS ON
THE GRASS BY TONIGHT...THERE IS AN INCREASED POSSIBILITY OF THIS
RECORD BEING ECLIPSED.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETREAT TO OUR NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. HIGHS THAT
MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST OFFER A GREATER OPPORTUNITY FOR A QUICKER
WARMUP DUE TO A MORE SSW FLOW. A HIGH TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL MEAN
MORE OF A SE FLOW WHICH THIS TIME OF YEAR USUALLY MEANS LESS OF WARM
UP. THE FLOW WILL BE WEAK...SO SUNSHINE WILL BE MAIN PLAYER
MODERATING THE AIR MASS ON THURSDAY. WITH MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS...WE
LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO REACH BACK TO AROUND 50 ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...LOWER TO MID 50S MOST VALLEY AREAS.

ANY LIGHT BREEZE LOOKS TO DECOUPLE THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH A MAINLY
CLEAR SKY EVERYONE LOOKS TO GET BELOW FREEZING ONCE
MORE...GENERALLY IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30.

FRIDAY...STILL WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE A LITTLE MORE BACK INTO THE 50S...UPPER 50S FROM ALBANY
SOUTHWARD. THESE VALUES WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS FOR
MID APRIL.

FRIDAY NIGHT...A CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH OUR
NORTHWESTERN ZONES. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS
AS WELL. IT MIGHT BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
MORE ABOUT THE CLIPPER WILL BE FOUND IN LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OUT ON THE WET SIDE WITH SHOWERS
EXPECTED FROM SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. DRIER WEATHER IS
THEN EXPECTED FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING. WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED AGAIN FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY

HERE ARE SOME SPECIFICS REGARDING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. ON SATURDAY
A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FA WITH A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE ALLOT OF MOISTURE WITH THE SYSTEM WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
DIMINISHING GREATLY AFTER 00Z SUNDAY. HIGHS ON SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S WITH THE LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN
THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...12Z/THURSDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO
CREST OVER THE REGION TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT 8-12 KTS FROM THE
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 00Z THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT-FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUN: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ALL AREAS RECEIVED A HALF INCH TO OVER AN INCH OF RAIN IN THE LAST
24 HOURS. IN ADDITION MOST AREAS RECEIVED ACCUMULATION
SNOW...GENERALLY IN THE 1-4 INCH RANGE...ALTHOUGH SOME PLACES IN
CONNECTICUT LOOKED TO HAVE PICKED UP TO 6 INCHES.

WITH A STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE...MOST OF THE SNOW SHOULD BE GONE BY
DARK. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE WOODED AREAS...AND OF COURSE
PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE OLD SNOW COVERED LINGERED.

IT WILL BE A CHILLY AND BREEZY DAY WITH WEST OR NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS
TO 30 MPH OR A LITTLE HIGHER.

THE WIND WILL GO CALM TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW FREEZING
REGIONWIDE.

DRY WEATHER WITH A SLOW MODERATING TREND FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
DAYTIME WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER...GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHEAST 5 TO 15 MPH.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON SATURDAY. SOME OF THIS
MIGHT BE MIXED WITH SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. AT THIS POINT...THE QPF
LOOKS LIGHT...BELOW A QUARTER OF AN INCH IN THE VALLEYS...BUT WE
MIGHT EXCEED THAT AMOUNT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREENS OF VERMONT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAVE LEAD THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. FLOOD WARNINGS
ARE IN EFFECT AT MANY RIVER POINTS IN THESE AREAS WITH MAINLY
MODERATE FLOODING OCCURRING. HOWEVER THERE IS MAJOR FLOODING
OCCURRING ALONG THE SCHROON RIVER AT RIVERBANK. LARGER MAIN STEM
RIVERS WILL CREST TODAY OR HAVE CRESTED.

COLDER AIR WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING HAS MOVED INTO OUR AREA.
ANY LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION WAS IN THE FORM OF SNOW...SLOWING
DOWN THE RUNOFF. SOME SMALLER STREAMS MAY SEE ADDITIONAL SMALL RISES
TODAY AND THURSDAY FROM SNOW MELT.

DRY WEATHER IS IN STORE LATER TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AND RIVERS WILL
RECEDE LATER THIS WEEK. THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE
SATURDAY. SOME PRECIPITATION COULD FALL AS WET SNOW ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. QPF AMOUNTS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT FROM THIS VANTAGE
POINT.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/LFM
NEAR TERM...IAA/LFM
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...IAA/11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SND/HWJIV








000
FXUS61 KBOX 161459
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1059 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY...BUT SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER TO THE
REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. WEAK OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING A
SHOWER OR TWO LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY THEN DRY
THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT COULD TRIGGER SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

10 AM UPDATE...

COLD FRONT OFFSHORE. CLEARING TO THE REAR. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND
THE HIGH APRIL SUN ANGLE ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM ABOVE
FREEZING. WARMING TEMPERATURES AND COLDER AIR BUILDING IN ALOFT
ALLOWING FOR STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES UP TO H85. SUBSEQUENT
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL RESULT IN BREEZY WINDS CONTINUING INTO
MIDDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH...DIMINISHING DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH CONTINUED DRYING. WITH H85 TEMPERATURES AROUND -8C...HIGHS
AROUND THE MID- TO UPPER- 40S ANTICIPATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...

TONIGHT...

HIGH PRES CRESTS OVER THE REGION. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SKIES TO
REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR AND WINDS TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT. THEREFORE...GOOD
SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING IN AN ALREADY SEASONABLY COLD
AIRMASS. EXPECT WITH INVERSIONS MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
COAST TO DROP BELOW FREEZING...WITH SEVERAL AREAS IN THE LOW TO
MID 20S.

THURSDAY...

HIGH PRES REMAINS IN CONTROL THANKS TO INVERTED RIDGING WITH THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH SLIDING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS SETUP
ALLOWS WINDS TO SHIFT TOWARD THE E-NE THROUGH THE DAY. THEREFORE...
DESPITE A CHANCE FOR TEMPS TO WARM SOMEWHAT WITH H85 TEMPS AROUND
-1C E COASTAL LOCATIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN STRUGGLE TO BREAK OUT OF
THE LOW 40S GIVEN SST VALUES THEMSELVES IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. AT
OTHER INTERIOR LOCATIONS TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND TO THE MID TO UPPER
40S WITH SOME AREAS FINALLY BREAKING BACK INTO THE 50S AS WELL.
SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY MOSTLY SUNNY...BUT SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY
SCRAPE S COASTAL LOCATIONS AS AN OCEAN WAVE PASSES WELL S OF THE
AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* CHILLY THU NIGHT AND UNSEASONABLY COOL NEAR THE COAST FRI
* MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH MON
* CHANCE OF SHOWERS MON NIGHT AND TUE

AN ACTIVE NORTHERN JET STREAM WILL EXIST THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE
A SEPARATE SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW CUTS OFF AND MEANDERS OFF THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
NORTHEAST WILL KEEP IT COOLER THAN NORMAL THROUGH FRI...ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE COAST. THEN TEMPERATURES MODERATE TO NEAR SEASONAL
NORMALS OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL
LIKELY BRING SHOWERS MON NIGHT AND TUE.

DAILY DETAILS...

THURSDAY NIGHT...

VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
AND RIDGING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT THU NIGHT...BUT NOT QUITE AS CHILLY AS WED
NIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S EXCEPT MID 30S ISLANDS.

FRIDAY...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EASTWARD BUT THERE WILL BE
A COOL NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW OVER THE REGION. EXPECT LARGE
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES FROM THE COAST TO LOCATIONS FARTHER INLAND.
ACROSS EASTERN MA THE VERY CHILLY OCEAN WATERS WITH SSTS IN THE
LOWER 40S WILL ADVECT THIS VERY COOL AND SHALLOW MARITIME AIRMASS
INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN. THEREFORE ONLY EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE 40S
OVER EASTERN MA. THE APRIL SUN WILL HAVE MORE OF AN EFFECT IN THE
INTERIOR...WITH MID 50S IN THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...

MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM
WAVES. ALL MODELS HAVE WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SOUTHEAST OF THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK. THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS SUGGEST IT IS CLOSE
ENOUGH TO BRING A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER MAINLY SOUTHEASTERN
AREAS LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. BUT THE ECMWF IS FASTER WITH
A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WHICH KEEPS US DRY WITH THE LOW FAR ENOUGH
OFFSHORE. EXPECT THE REST OF SATURDAY TO BE PARTLY CLOUDY. THE
GFS HAS THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COOL POCKET OF AIR
OVERHEAD WHICH COULD LEAD TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY
BUT AGAIN OTHER MODELS ARE DRIER. ANYWAY...MUCH ADO ABOUT A SMALL
CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION PROVIDING DRY AND
SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER. HIGHS IN THE 50S SUNDAY. LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT MAINLY 35-40. HIGHS MON A LITTLE WARMER...IN THE UPPER 50S
AND LOWER 60S MONDAY. SUNSHINE WILL FADE BEHIND INCREASING
CLOUDINESS DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCE
ON THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. THE GENERAL
CONSENSUS IS THAT ANY CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE CONFINED
TO FAR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARD EVENING.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION MON NIGHT AND BEGINS TO WASH
OUT OVER THE AREA. SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ON PLACEMENT OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT...WITH GFS FAVORING A MID ATLANTIC LOW
AND THE ECMWF WINDING UP A STORM SYSTEM OFF THE CAROLINAS. THE NET
EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COULD SIMPLY BE A BAND OF LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS WITH A DECAYING FRONT. STILL LOOKING AT HIGH TEMPS
IN THE LOWER 60S TUE DESPITE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

14Z UPDATE...

VFR. NW WINDS GUSTING 25-35 KTS INTO MIDDAY DIMINISHING INTO THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WINDS SHIFTING NORTH OVERNIGHT AND
THEN NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY THRU FRIDAY...VFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF MVFR IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST HALF.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS...GUSTING OVER 25 KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS NEAR GALE-
FORCE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO ON THE OUTER WATERS.

GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN CONVERTED OVER TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
ACCORDINGLY. SMALL-CRAFTS WILL DROP OFF DURING MIDDAY HOURS FOR
THE INNER WATERS...BUT AS TO THE OUTER WATERS PRESENT 8 TO 10 FOOT
SEAS AN AVERAGE OF 5 TO 7 FEET THROUGH THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THU NIGHT THRU FRI...TREND HERE WILL BE DECREASING SOUTHERLY
SWELLS WITH INCREASING ENE WIND WAVES. MAINLY DRY WITH MARITIME
AIRMASS OVER THE WATERS COURTESY OF 1040+ MB HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
NEWFOUNDLAND. OVERALL SEAS STILL 5 TO 7 FT OVER THE OUTER WATERS.

FRI NIGHT AND SAT...LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO PASS SOUTHEAST OF THE
BENCHMARK OF 40N 70W. NORTHEAST WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AND SEAS
BEGIN TO VERY SLOWLY SUBSIDE.

SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY...SEAS FINALLY SUBSIDE TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 5 FT OVER THE OUTER WATERS. NORTHWEST WINDS
BECOME NORTHEAST AGAIN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND...
BUT RELATIVELY LIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

SEVERAL POINTS ALONG THE CT RIVER ARE FLOODING OR WILL BE IN MINOR
FLOOD SOON. WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE CT RIVER AT...

THOMPSONVILLE
HARTFORD
MIDDLE HADDAM
MONTAGUE
NORTHAMPTON

OTHER POINTS ALONG THE CT RIVER WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS WATER
CONTINUES TO RUNOFF FROM RAINS OVERNIGHT AND YESTERDAY AS WELL AS
DRAINAGE FROM RAIN AND MELTING SNOW ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND. IT
MAY TAKE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK FOR SOME OF THE WATERS TO
RECEDE BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT SOME OF THESE POINTS. ALSO...NOTE
THAT IT IS POSSIBLE SOME OF THESE MAY ALSO REACH MODERATE FLOOD AT
SOME POINT LATER IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS WELL BEFORE THEY
RECEDE.

OUTSIDE OF THE CT RIVER...THE PAWCATUCK AT WESTERLY CONTINUES TO
RISE AS WELL AND MAY NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL FLOODING
LATER IN THE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. BUT GIVEN THERE IS TIME TO MONITOR
THE RESPONSE NO WARNING IS CURRENTLY OUT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ231>234-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ230-
     236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-256.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ254-255.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DOODY/GAF
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...GAF
AVIATION...DOODY/GAF
MARINE...DOODY/SIPPRELL/GAF
HYDROLOGY...DOODY/GAF




000
FXUS61 KOKX 161444
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1044 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TODAY AND DRIFTS NORTHEAST
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS MULTIPLE LOW PRESSURE AREAS RIDE A
STALLED FRONT TO THE EAST. THE HIGH FINALLY PUSHES OFF TO THE
EAST BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WITH LOW PRESSURE RETURNING FOR MID
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO TEMPS AND DEW PTS TO REFLECT CURRENT
OBS.

RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH TODAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL BE DIMINISHING THROUGH THIS MORNING AND INTO EARLY AFTERNOON
AS COLD ADVECTION WEAKENS AND WINDS ALOFT DIMINISH...WITH MIXING
TO AROUND 3500 FT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE 40S. NORMAL HIGHS ARE AROUND 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS SURFACE
HIGH REMAINS TO THE NORTHEAST AND RIDGES DOWN ALONG THE EASTERN
SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS. THE COLD AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN APPROACH OR FALL
BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE AREA. A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR
THE SAME AREAS THAT HAD THE FREEZE WARNING THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...THERE IS LESS CERTAINTY OF WIDESPREAD FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WILL BE REALIZED ACROSS THE CITY AND ADJACENT ZONES.
NO RECORDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BROKEN TONIGHT UNLESS TEMPERATURES
FALL LOWER THAN FORECAST AS SKIES WILL BE CLEAR AND WINDS WILL
INITIALLY BE LIGHT IN THE EVENING. THEN WITH THE HIGH BUILDING TO
THE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHEAST BRINGING IN
COOLER NORTHERN ATLANTIC AIR LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
THURSDAYS HIGHS WILL ONLY BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER THAN
TODAYS HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
INITIALLY DRY WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE
HIGH PUSHES NORTH AND EAST WHILE THE AREA REMAINS UNDER BROAD
RIDGING. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT ALONG A
STALLED FRONT OFFSHORE THAT COULD BRING LIGHT PCPN INTO THE AREA BY
FRIDAY MORNING...THEN SLOWLY SPREADING TO THE NORTH FRI NIGHT INTO
SAT. 00Z GFS A BIT MORE PRONOUNCED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW AND
THE RESULTING PCPN WITH THE SUGGESTION OF INTERACTION BETWEEN A
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH/CLOSED
LOW. ALL OTHER MODELS KEEP A DISTINCT SEPARATION BETWEEN THE TWO SO
WENT AHEAD AND MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT CHC/CHC POPS FOR NOW WITH
UNCERTAINTY ON JUST HOW WIDESPREAD THE PCPN OCCURS. AN APPROACHING
FRONT SAT COULD TRIGGER SCT RAIN SHOWERS AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH. THINGS THEN DRY OUT FOR SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY WITH ZONAL FLOW
SETTING UP ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH INTO THE
NORTHEAST.

SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES IN THE HANDLING OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM NEXT WEEK. 00Z GFS LINGERS THE HIGH OVER THE NORTHEAST THEN
BRINGS A WEAK FRONT IN FROM THE WEST WHILE ECMWF AND CMC BOTH
DEVELOP A DECENT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF COASTAL FLORIDA AND TRACK
TO THE NORTH ALONG A STALLED FRONT. FLOW ALOFT SUGGESTS MORE OF A
GFS SOLUTION IN THIS CASE...SO SIDED MORE TO A GFS/WPC
BLEND...BRINGING POPS IN MONDAY NIGHT AND KEEPING THEM IN PLACE
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH THE FRONT REMAINING IN THE VICINITY AND
MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES RIDING THE FLOW ALOFT.

COOLER WEATHER IN STORE FOR THE TRI STATE AREA THURS NIGHT/FRI AS
THE POSITIONING OF THE HIGH KEEPS A COOLER EASTERLY/NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW DESPITE WAA ALOFT. HOWEVER...AS WINDS SHIFT FOR THE
WEEKEND...EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL. OVERALL...TEMPS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN WARM ENOUGH WITH TIMING OF PCPN TO KEEP PCPN IN
THE FORM OF RAIN. THURS NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT IN THE
EXTENDED...THOUGH CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTING FROST/FREEZE ISSUES IN
AREAS CURRENTLY IN THE GROWING SEASON.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA INTO THIS EVENING.

VFR.

NW WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KT INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISH INTO THIS EVENING AS
DIRECTIONS VEER TO THE N. GUSTS SHOULD ABATE BY LATE AFTERNOON.

OVERNIGHT...WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE EAST AT 5-10 KT.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. 330-350 MAG. END TIME OF GUSTS MAY BE OFF +/- AN
HOUR.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. 330-350 MAG. END TIME OF GUSTS MAY BE OFF +/- AN
HOUR.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. 330-350 MAG. END TIME OF GUSTS MAY BE OFF +/- AN HOUR.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES  SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST. END
TIME OF GUSTS MAY BE OFF +/- AN HOUR.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST. END
TIME OF GUSTS MAY BE OFF +/- AN HOUR.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST. END
TIME OF GUSTS MAY BE OFF +/- AN HOUR.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.THURSDAY...VFR. E WIND G AROUND 20KT POSSIBLE.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRI NIGHT...VFR.
.SATURDAY...PSBL MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW CHANCE OF -SHRA. W-NW
WIND G25-30KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...VFR

&&

.MARINE...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. SMALL CRAFT GUSTS WILL CONTINUE ON ALL
WATERS INTO THE AFTERNOON. WHILE WINDS DIMINISH BELOW SCA
CRITERIA...SEAS ON THE OCEAN REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS TONIGHT
INTO AT LEAST THURSDAY WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING AND
INCREASING.

BRIEF PERIOD OF 25 KT GUSTS ON THE OCEAN WATERS THURS NIGHT...WITH
WINDS DIMINISHING HEADING INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
WATERS. WINDS REMAIN SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK. SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED ON THE OCEAN DURING THE
PERIOD...FINALLY SUBSIDING BY LATE SAT. SEAS THEN EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW 5 FT INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THEN NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
THAT WOULD HAVE HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS IS CURRENTLY FORECASTED
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WEEK.

NOTE...MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER.
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY CAUSE WATER LEVELS TO CONTINUE
TO RISE THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE FLOOD LEVELS
TO BE REACHED. MONITOR THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS FROM NWS TAUNTON MA.

NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS FOR THURSDAY MORNING APRIL 17:

EWR - 30 IN 1980  FORECAST LOW - 33
BDR - 30 IN 1962  FORECAST LOW - 31
NYC - 28 IN 1875  FORECAST LOW - 34
LGA - 32 IN 1980  FORECAST LOW - 36
JFK - 33 IN 1980  FORECAST LOW - 35
ISP - 30 IN 2005  FORECAST LOW - 30

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     CTZ009>012.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     NYZ069>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     NJZ004-006-103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ330-
     335-338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS/MET
NEAR TERM...JC/MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...MPS/DS
MARINE...JC/SEARS/MET
HYDROLOGY...SEARS/MET
CLIMATE...










000
FXUS61 KALY 161424
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1024 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.
DESPITE SUNSHINE...IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE MID MARCH. THE HIGH
WILL DOMINATE THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TRENDING
TOWARD NORMAL LEVELS BY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY WILL FEEL LIKE MID MARCH WITH HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE
MAINLY IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S THIS AFTERNOON. BRISK AND GUSTY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ONLY ADD TO THE CHILL. PLUS WE HAD 1/2
TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW REPORTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...PLEASE
REFER TO OUR PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY.
LOOKING AT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WITH FLOW LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN TO OUR WEST ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK. WILL HAVE GOOD MIXING
SO WINDS WILL BE RATHER BRISK AND GUSTY ESPECIALLY INTO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. THE WIND WILL
DIMINISH QUICKLY AND THE SKY WILL BE CLEAR DURING EVENING.
OVERNIGHT...SOME HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS MIGHT INCREASE DUE TO
WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT. EVEN SO...NEARLY IDEAL RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT. THE WILD CARD IS HOW FAST THE SNOW COVER
WILL MELT TODAY. GIVEN A STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE...ALONG WITH ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES...WE BELIEVE MOST OF IT WILL MELT. IF THAT
ISN`T THE CASE...TEMPERATURES COULD EVEN COLDER. (OUR FORECAST AGAIN
ASSUMES MOST AREAS SOUTH OF THE ADIRONDACK PARK WILL HAVE VERY
LITTLE IF ANY SNOW LEFT BY TONIGHT).

EVEN SO...TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S
FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD...TEENS NORTH.

THESE VALUES SHOULD JUST MISS RECORD LOWS. THE RECORD LOW AT ALBANY
FOR APRIL 17TH IS 21 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1971. IF SNOW REMAINS ON
THE GRASS BY TONIGHT...THERE IS AN INCREASED POSSIBILITY OF THIS
RECORD BEING ECLIPSED.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETREAT TO OUR NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. HIGHS THAT
MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST OFFER A GREATER OPPORTUNITY FOR A QUICKER
WARMUP DUE TO A MORE SSW FLOW. A HIGH TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL MEAN
MORE OF A SE FLOW WHICH THIS TIME OF YEAR USUALLY MEANS LESS OF WARM
UP. THE FLOW WILL BE WEAK...SO SUNSHINE WILL BE MAIN PLAYER
MODERATING THE AIR MASS ON THURSDAY. WITH MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS...WE
LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO REACH BACK TO AROUND 50 ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...LOWER TO MID 50S MOST VALLEY AREAS.

ANY LIGHT BREEZE LOOKS TO DECOUPLE THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH A MAINLY
CLEAR SKY EVERYONE LOOKS TO GET BELOW FREEZING ONCE
MORE...GENERALLY IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30.

FRIDAY...STILL WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE A LITTLE MORE BACK INTO THE 50S...UPPER 50S FROM ALBANY
SOUTHWARD. THESE VALUES WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS FOR
MID APRIL.

FRIDAY NIGHT...A CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH OUR
NORTHWESTERN ZONES. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS
AS WELL. IT MIGHT BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
MORE ABOUT THE CLIPPER WILL BE FOUND IN LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OUT ON THE WET SIDE WITH SHOWERS
EXPECTED FROM SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. DRIER WEATHER IS
THEN EXPECTED FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING. WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED AGAIN FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY

HERE ARE SOME SPECIFICS REGARDING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. ON SATURDAY
A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FA WITH A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE ALLOT OF MOISTURE WITH THE SYSTEM WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
DIMINISHING GREATLY AFTER 00Z SUNDAY. HIGHS ON SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S WITH THE LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN
THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...12Z/THURSDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO
CREST OVER THE REGION TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT 8-12 KTS FROM THE
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 00Z THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT-FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUN: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ALL AREAS RECEIVED A HALF INCH TO OVER AN INCH OF RAIN IN THE LAST
24 HOURS. IN ADDITION MOST AREAS RECEIVED ACCUMULATION
SNOW...GENERALLY IN THE 1-4 INCH RANGE...ALTHOUGH SOME PLACES IN
CONNECTICUT LOOKED TO HAVE PICKED UP TO 6 INCHES.

WITH A STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE...MOST OF THE SNOW SHOULD BE GONE BY
DARK. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE WOODED AREAS...AND OF COURSE
PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE OLD SNOW COVERED LINGERED.

IT WILL BE A CHILLY AND BREEZY DAY WITH WEST OR NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS
TO 30 MPH OR A LITTLE HIGHER.

THE WIND WILL GO CALM TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW FREEZING
REGIONWIDE.

DRY WEATHER WITH A SLOW MODERATING TREND FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
DAYTIME WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER...GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHEAST 5 TO 15 MPH.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON SATURDAY. SOME OF THIS
MIGHT BE MIXED WITH SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. AT THIS POINT...THE QPF
LOOKS LIGHT...BELOW A QUARTER OF AN INCH IN THE VALLEYS...BUT WE
MIGHT EXCEED THAT AMOUNT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREENS OF VERMONT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAVE LEAD THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. FLOOD WARNINGS
ARE IN EFFECT AT MANY RIVER POINTS IN THESE AREAS WITH MAINLY
MODERATE FLOODING OCCURRING. HOWEVER THERE IS MAJOR FLOODING
OCCURRING ALONG THE SCHROON RIVER AT RIVERBANK. LARGER MAIN STEM
RIVERS WILL CREST TODAY OR HAVE CRESTED.

COLDER AIR WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING HAS MOVED INTO OUR AREA.
ANY LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION WAS IN THE FORM OF SNOW...SLOWING
DOWN THE RUNOFF. SOME SMALLER STREAMS MAY SEE ADDITIONAL SMALL RISES
TODAY AND THURSDAY FROM SNOW MELT.

DRY WEATHER IS IN STORE LATER TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AND RIVERS WILL
RECEDE LATER THIS WEEK. THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE
SATURDAY. SOME PRECIPITATION COULD FALL AS WET SNOW ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. QPF AMOUNTS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT FROM THIS VANTAGE
POINT.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...IAA/11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...IAA/SND/HWJIV








000
FXUS61 KBOX 161353
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
953 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY...BUT SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER TO THE
REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. WEAK OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING A
SHOWER OR TWO LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY THEN DRY
THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT COULD TRIGGER SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

10 AM UPDATE...

COLD FRONT OFFSHORE. CLEARING TO THE REAR. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND
THE HIGH APRIL SUN ANGLE ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM ABOVE
FREEZING. WARMING TEMPERATURES AND COLDER AIR BUILDING IN ALOFT
ALLOWING FOR STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES UP TO H85. SUBSEQUENT
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL RESULT IN BREEZY WINDS CONTINUING INTO
MIDDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH...DIMINISHING DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH CONTINUED DRYING. WITH H85 TEMPERATURES AROUND -8C...HIGHS
AROUND THE MID- TO UPPER- 40S ANTICIPATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...

TONIGHT...

HIGH PRES CRESTS OVER THE REGION. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SKIES TO
REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR AND WINDS TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT. THEREFORE...GOOD
SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING IN AN ALREADY SEASONABLY COLD
AIRMASS. EXPECT WITH INVERSIONS MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
COAST TO DROP BELOW FREEZING...WITH SEVERAL AREAS IN THE LOW TO
MID 20S.

THURSDAY...

HIGH PRES REMAINS IN CONTROL THANKS TO INVERTED RIDGING WITH THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH SLIDING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS SETUP
ALLOWS WINDS TO SHIFT TOWARD THE E-NE THROUGH THE DAY. THEREFORE...
DESPITE A CHANCE FOR TEMPS TO WARM SOMEWHAT WITH H85 TEMPS AROUND
-1C E COASTAL LOCATIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN STRUGGLE TO BREAK OUT OF
THE LOW 40S GIVEN SST VALUES THEMSELVES IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. AT
OTHER INTERIOR LOCATIONS TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND TO THE MID TO UPPER
40S WITH SOME AREAS FINALLY BREAKING BACK INTO THE 50S AS WELL.
SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY MOSTLY SUNNY...BUT SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY
SCRAPE S COASTAL LOCATIONS AS AN OCEAN WAVE PASSES WELL S OF THE
AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* CHILLY THU NIGHT AND UNSEASONABLY COOL NEAR THE COAST FRI
* MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH MON
* CHANCE OF SHOWERS MON NIGHT AND TUE

AN ACTIVE NORTHERN JET STREAM WILL EXIST THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE
A SEPARATE SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW CUTS OFF AND MEANDERS OFF THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
NORTHEAST WILL KEEP IT COOLER THAN NORMAL THROUGH FRI...ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE COAST. THEN TEMPERATURES MODERATE TO NEAR SEASONAL
NORMALS OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL
LIKELY BRING SHOWERS MON NIGHT AND TUE.

DAILY DETAILS...

THURSDAY NIGHT...

VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
AND RIDGING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT THU NIGHT...BUT NOT QUITE AS CHILLY AS WED
NIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S EXCEPT MID 30S ISLANDS.

FRIDAY...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EASTWARD BUT THERE WILL BE
A COOL NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW OVER THE REGION. EXPECT LARGE
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES FROM THE COAST TO LOCATIONS FARTHER INLAND.
ACROSS EASTERN MA THE VERY CHILLY OCEAN WATERS WITH SSTS IN THE
LOWER 40S WILL ADVECT THIS VERY COOL AND SHALLOW MARITIME AIRMASS
INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN. THEREFORE ONLY EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE 40S
OVER EASTERN MA. THE APRIL SUN WILL HAVE MORE OF AN EFFECT IN THE
INTERIOR...WITH MID 50S IN THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...

MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM
WAVES. ALL MODELS HAVE WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SOUTHEAST OF THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK. THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS SUGGEST IT IS CLOSE
ENOUGH TO BRING A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER MAINLY SOUTHEASTERN
AREAS LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. BUT THE ECMWF IS FASTER WITH
A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WHICH KEEPS US DRY WITH THE LOW FAR ENOUGH
OFFSHORE. EXPECT THE REST OF SATURDAY TO BE PARTLY CLOUDY. THE
GFS HAS THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COOL POCKET OF AIR
OVERHEAD WHICH COULD LEAD TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY
BUT AGAIN OTHER MODELS ARE DRIER. ANYWAY...MUCH ADO ABOUT A SMALL
CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION PROVIDING DRY AND
SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER. HIGHS IN THE 50S SUNDAY. LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT MAINLY 35-40. HIGHS MON A LITTLE WARMER...IN THE UPPER 50S
AND LOWER 60S MONDAY. SUNSHINE WILL FADE BEHIND INCREASING
CLOUDINESS DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCE
ON THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. THE GENERAL
CONSENSUS IS THAT ANY CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE CONFINED
TO FAR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARD EVENING.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION MON NIGHT AND BEGINS TO WASH
OUT OVER THE AREA. SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ON PLACEMENT OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT...WITH GFS FAVORING A MID ATLANTIC LOW
AND THE ECMWF WINDING UP A STORM SYSTEM OFF THE CAROLINAS. THE NET
EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COULD SIMPLY BE A BAND OF LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS WITH A DECAYING FRONT. STILL LOOKING AT HIGH TEMPS
IN THE LOWER 60S TUE DESPITE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

14Z UPDATE...

VFR. NW WINDS GUSTING 25-35 KTS INTO MIDDAY DIMINISHING INTO THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WINDS SHIFTING NORTH OVERNIGHT AND
THEN NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY THRU FRIDAY...VFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF MVFR IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST HALF.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

NW GALE FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH MID
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A RAPID DECLINE IN WINDS. HOWEVER...SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST THE OCEAN
WATERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAY TO TOMORROW FOR SEAS
ALONE. WHICH WILL FALL FROM 7-10 FT TO AN AVERAGE OF 5-7 FT BY
TOMORROW MORNING.

OTHERWISE...E-NE WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN GUST AROUND 25 KT ON THE
SRN WATERS DURING THE DAY TOMORROW...SO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
WOULD BE NEEDED ANYWAY FOR WINDS.

IN ESSENCE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD..SAVE FOR THE NEAR SHORE WATERS LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT ONCE WINDS RECEDE.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THU NIGHT THRU FRI...TREND HERE WILL BE DECREASING SOUTHERLY
SWELLS WITH INCREASING ENE WIND WAVES. MAINLY DRY WITH MARITIME
AIRMASS OVER THE WATERS COURTESY OF 1040+ MB HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
NEWFOUNDLAND. OVERALL SEAS STILL 5 TO 7 FT OVER THE OUTER WATERS.

FRI NIGHT AND SAT...LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO PASS SOUTHEAST OF THE
BENCHMARK OF 40N 70W. NORTHEAST WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AND SEAS
BEGIN TO VERY SLOWLY SUBSIDE.

SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY...SEAS FINALLY SUBSIDE TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 5 FT OVER THE OUTER WATERS. NORTHWEST WINDS
BECOME NORTHEAST AGAIN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND...
BUT RELATIVELY LIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

SEVERAL POINTS ALONG THE CT RIVER ARE FLOODING OR WILL BE IN MINOR
FLOOD SOON. WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE CT RIVER AT...

THOMPSONVILLE
HARTFORD
MIDDLE HADDAM
MONTAGUE
NORTHAMPTON

OTHER POINTS ALONG THE CT RIVER WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS WATER
CONTINUES TO RUNOFF FROM RAINS OVERNIGHT AND YESTERDAY AS WELL AS
DRAINAGE FROM RAIN AND MELTING SNOW ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND. IT
MAY TAKE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK FOR SOME OF THE WATERS TO
RECEDE BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT SOME OF THESE POINTS. ALSO...NOTE
THAT IT IS POSSIBLE SOME OF THESE MAY ALSO REACH MODERATE FLOOD AT
SOME POINT LATER IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS WELL BEFORE THEY
RECEDE.

OUTSIDE OF THE CT RIVER...THE PAWCATUCK AT WESTERLY CONTINUES TO
RISE AS WELL AND MAY NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL FLOODING
LATER IN THE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. BUT GIVEN THERE IS TIME TO MONITOR
THE RESPONSE NO WARNING IS CURRENTLY OUT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ230>234-236-250-251.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ235-237-256.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ254-255.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DOODY/GAF
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...GAF
AVIATION...SIPPRELL
MARINE...DOODY/GAF
HYDROLOGY...DOODY/GAF




000
FXUS61 KOKX 161350
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
950 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TODAY AND DRIFTS NORTHEAST
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS MULTIPLE LOW PRESSURE AREAS RIDE A
STALLED FRONT TO THE EAST. THE HIGH FINALLY PUSHES OFF TO THE
EAST BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WITH LOW PRESSURE RETURNING FOR MID
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO TEMPS AND DEW PTS TO REFLECT CURRENT
OBS.

RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH TODAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL BE DIMINISHING THROUGH THIS MORNING AND INTO EARLY AFTERNOON
AS COLD ADVECTION WEAKENS AND WINDS ALOFT DIMINISH...WITH MIXING
TO AROUND 3500 FT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE 40S. NORMAL HIGHS ARE AROUND 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS SURFACE
HIGH REMAINS TO THE NORTHEAST AND RIDGES DOWN ALONG THE EASTERN
SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS. THE COLD AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN APPROACH OF FALL
BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE AREA. NO RECORDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
BROKEN TONIGHT UNLESS TEMPERATURES FALL LOWER THAN FORECAST AS
SKIES WILL BE CLEAR AND WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE LIGHT IN THE
EVENING. THEN WITH THE HIGH BUILDING TO THE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE NORTHEAST BRINGING IN COOLER NORTHERN ATLANTIC
AIR LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THURSDAYS HIGHS WILL ONLY BE A
COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER THAN TODAYS HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
INITIALLY DRY WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE
HIGH PUSHES NORTH AND EAST WHILE THE AREA REMAINS UNDER BROAD
RIDGING. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT ALONG A
STALLED FRONT OFFSHORE THAT COULD BRING LIGHT PCPN INTO THE AREA BY
FRIDAY MORNING...THEN SLOWLY SPREADING TO THE NORTH FRI NIGHT INTO
SAT. 00Z GFS A BIT MORE PRONOUNCED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW AND
THE RESULTING PCPN WITH THE SUGGESTION OF INTERACTION BETWEEN A
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH/CLOSED
LOW. ALL OTHER MODELS KEEP A DISTINCT SEPARATION BETWEEN THE TWO SO
WENT AHEAD AND MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT CHC/CHC POPS FOR NOW WITH
UNCERTAINTY ON JUST HOW WIDESPREAD THE PCPN OCCURS. AN APPROACHING
FRONT SAT COULD TRIGGER SCT RAIN SHOWERS AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH. THINGS THEN DRY OUT FOR SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY WITH ZONAL FLOW
SETTING UP ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH INTO THE
NORTHEAST.

SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES IN THE HANDLING OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM NEXT WEEK. 00Z GFS LINGERS THE HIGH OVER THE NORTHEAST THEN
BRINGS A WEAK FRONT IN FROM THE WEST WHILE ECMWF AND CMC BOTH
DEVELOP A DECENT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF COASTAL FLORIDA AND TRACK
TO THE NORTH ALONG A STALLED FRONT. FLOW ALOFT SUGGESTS MORE OF A
GFS SOLUTION IN THIS CASE...SO SIDED MORE TO A GFS/WPC
BLEND...BRINGING POPS IN MONDAY NIGHT AND KEEPING THEM IN PLACE
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH THE FRONT REMAINING IN THE VICINITY AND
MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES RIDING THE FLOW ALOFT.

COOLER WEATHER IN STORE FOR THE TRI STATE AREA THURS NIGHT/FRI AS
THE POSITIONING OF THE HIGH KEEPS A COOLER EASTERLY/NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW DESPITE WAA ALOFT. HOWEVER...AS WINDS SHIFT FOR THE
WEEKEND...EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL. OVERALL...TEMPS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN WARM ENOUGH WITH TIMING OF PCPN TO KEEP PCPN IN
THE FORM OF RAIN. THURS NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT IN THE
EXTENDED...THOUGH CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTING FROST/FREEZE ISSUES IN
AREAS CURRENTLY IN THE GROWING SEASON.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA INTO THIS EVENING.

VFR.

MAIN ISSUE WILL BE THE WINDS. NW WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 15-20 KT
WITH 25-30 KT GUSTS THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING. WINDS GRADUALLY
DIMINISH DURING THE DAY AS WINDS VEER TO THE N. WIND GUSTS SHOULD
ABATE BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THE WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE N.

LATE TONIGHT...WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE EAST AT 5-10 KT.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST THIS
MORNING. 330-350 MAG 20G30KT.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST THIS
MORNING. 320-340 MAG 20G30KT.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST THIS
MORNING. 330-350 MAG 20G30KT.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES  SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST. NW
15-20G25-30 KT.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST. NW
15-20G25-30 KT.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST. NNW
20G30KT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.THURSDAY...VFR. E WIND G AROUND 20KT POSSIBLE.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRI NIGHT...VFR.
.SATURDAY...PSBL MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW CHANCE OF -SHRA. W-NW
WIND G25-30KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...VFR

&&

.MARINE...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. SMALL CRAFT GUSTS WILL CONTINUE ON ALL
WATERS INTO THE AFTERNOON. WHILE WINDS DIMINISH BELOW SCA
CRITERIA...SEAS ON THE OCEAN REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS TONIGHT
INTO AT LEAST THURSDAY WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING AND
INCREASING.

BRIEF PERIOD OF 25 KT GUSTS ON THE OCEAN WATERS THURS NIGHT...WITH
WINDS DIMINISHING HEADING INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
WATERS. WINDS REMAIN SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK. SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED ON THE OCEAN DURING THE
PERIOD...FINALLY SUBSIDING BY LATE SAT. SEAS THEN EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW 5 FT INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THEN NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
THAT WOULD HAVE HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS IS CURRENTLY FORECASTED
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WEEK.

NOTE...MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER.
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY CAUSE WATER LEVELS TO CONTINUE
TO RISE THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE FLOOD LEVELS
TO BE REACHED. MONITOR THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS FROM NWS TAUNTON MA.

NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS FOR THURSDAY MORNING APRIL 17:

EWR - 30 IN 1980  FORECAST LOW - 33
BDR - 30 IN 1962  FORECAST LOW - 31
NYC - 28 IN 1875  FORECAST LOW - 34
LGA - 32 IN 1980  FORECAST LOW - 36
JFK - 33 IN 1980  FORECAST LOW - 35
ISP - 30 IN 2005  FORECAST LOW - 30

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ330-
     335-338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS/MET
NEAR TERM...JC/MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...JC/SEARS/MET
HYDROLOGY...SEARS/MET
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KALY 161213
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
813 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.
DESPITE SUNSHINE...IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE MID MARCH. THE HIGH
WILL DOMINATE THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TRENDING
TOWARD NORMAL LEVELS BY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 645 AM EDT...STILL TRACKING SOME LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND WEST BUT THESE WERE DIMINISHING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

TEMPERATURES WERE BELOW FREEZING ACROSS OUR ENTIRE REGION...TEENS
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOME OF THE COLDER SPOTS IN OTHER HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS ...20S ACROSS MOST OF THE MAJORITY OF AREAS.

MOST OF OUR AREA RECEIVED ACCUMULATING SNOW...GENERALLY IN THE 1-4
INCH RANGE. A BAND OF BRIEFLY HEAVY SNOW SET UP ACROSS LITCHFIELD
COUNTY WHERE UP TO LOCALLY UP TO 6 INCHES HAVE FALLEN. PLEASE REFER
TO PUBLIC STATEMENTS FOR ALL OUR LATEST SNOWFALL MEASUREMENTS.

WE ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT ADDRESSING THIS SITUATION THAT
WILL RUN THROUGH MORNING DRIVE (800 AM) FOR STANDING FROZEN SLUSH
AND BLACK ICE.

WE WILL BE LEFT WITH A DRY BUT COLD DAY FOR TODAY. CLOUDS WILL
GENERALLY DECREASE. H850 TEMPERATURES LOOK TO STAY NEAR OR EVEN A
LITTLE BELOW -10C. EVEN WITH GOOD MIXING AND GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE
(MIXED WITH FAIR WEATHER CU)...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RISE NO HIGHER
THAN THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. EVEN IN
THE VALLEY AREAS...HIGHS WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT IN THE 40 TO 45
RANGE. TO THE LEE OF THE CATSKILLS...THANKS TO A MORE DOWNSLOPING
WIND...HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND LOWER LITCHFIELD COUNTY.

THESE VALUES ARE PERFECTLY NORMAL FOR MID MARCH...BUT OVER 10
DEGREES LOWER THAN NORMAL FOR MID APRIL. A GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST
WIND 10 TO 25 MPH WILL ADD TO THE CHILL AT TIMES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. THE WIND WILL
DIMINISH QUICKLY AND THE SKY WILL BE CLEAR DURING EVENING.
OVERNIGHT...SOME HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS MIGHT INCREASE DUE TO
WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT. EVEN SO...NEARLY IDEAL RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT. THE WILD CARD IS HOW FAST THE SNOW COVER
WILL MELT TODAY. GIVEN A STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE...ALONG WITH ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES...WE BELIEVE MOST OF IT WILL MELT. IF THAT
ISN`T THE CASE...TEMPERATURES COULD EVEN COLDER. (OUR FORECAST AGAIN
ASSUMES MOST AREAS SOUTH OF THE ADIRONDACK PARK WILL HAVE VERY
LITTLE IF ANY SNOW LEFT BY TONIGHT).

EVEN SO...TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S
FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD...TEENS NORTH.

THESE VALUES SHOULD JUST MISS RECORD LOWS. THE RECORD LOW AT ALBANY
FOR APRIL 17TH IS 21 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1971. IF SNOW REMAINS ON
THE GRASS BY TONIGHT...THERE IS AN INCREASED POSSIBILITY OF THIS
RECORD BEING ECLIPSED.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETREAT TO OUR NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. HIGHS THAT
MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST OFFER A GREATER OPPORTUNITY FOR A QUICKER
WARMUP DUE TO A MORE SSW FLOW. A HIGH TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL MEAN
MORE OF A SE FLOW WHICH THIS TIME OF YEAR USUALLY MEANS LESS OF WARM
UP. THE FLOW WILL BE WEAK...SO SUNSHINE WILL BE MAIN PLAYER
MODERATING THE AIR MASS ON THURSDAY. WITH MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS...WE
LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO REACH BACK TO AROUND 50 ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...LOWER TO MID 50S MOST VALLEY AREAS.

ANY LIGHT BREEZE LOOKS TO DECOUPLE THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH A MAINLY
CLEAR SKY EVERYONE LOOKS TO GET BELOW FREEZING ONCE
MORE...GENERALLY IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30.

FRIDAY...STILL WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE A LITTLE MORE BACK INTO THE 50S...UPPER 50S FROM ALBANY
SOUTHWARD. THESE VALUES WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS FOR
MID APRIL.

FRIDAY NIGHT...A CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH OUR
NORTHWESTERN ZONES. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS
AS WELL. IT MIGHT BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
MORE ABOUT THE CLIPPER WILL BE FOUND IN LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OUT ON THE WET SIDE WITH SHOWERS
EXPECTED FROM SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. DRIER WEATHER IS
THEN EXPECTED FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING. WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED AGAIN FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY

HERE ARE SOME SPECIFICS REGARDING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. ON SATURDAY
A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FA WITH A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE ALLOT OF MOISTURE WITH THE SYSTEM WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
DIMINISHING GREATLY AFTER 00Z SUNDAY. HIGHS ON SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S WITH THE LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN
THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...12Z/THURSDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO
CREST OVER THE REGION TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT 8-12 KTS FROM THE
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 00Z THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT-FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUN: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ALL AREAS RECEIVED A HALF INCH TO OVER AN INCH OF RAIN IN THE LAST
24 HOURS. IN ADDITION MOST AREAS RECEIVED ACCUMULATION
SNOW...GENERALLY IN THE 1-4 INCH RANGE...ALTHOUGH SOME PLACES IN
CONNECTICUT LOOKED TO HAVE PICKED UP TO 6 INCHES.

WITH A STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE...MOST OF THE SNOW SHOULD BE GONE BY
DARK. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE WOODED AREAS...AND OF COURSE
PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE OLD SNOW COVERED LINGERED.

IT WILL BE A CHILLY AND BREEZY DAY WITH WEST OR NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS
TO 30 MPH OR A LITTLE HIGHER.

THE WIND WILL GO CALM TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW FREEZING
REGIONWIDE.

DRY WEATHER WITH A SLOW MODERATING TREND FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
DAYTIME WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER...GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHEAST 5 TO 15 MPH.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON SATURDAY. SOME OF THIS
MIGHT BE MIXED WITH SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. AT THIS POINT...THE QPF
LOOKS LIGHT...BELOW A QUARTER OF AN INCH IN THE VALLEYS...BUT WE
MIGHT EXCEED THAT AMOUNT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREENS OF VERMONT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD RAIN OF AN INCH TO TWO INCHES ALONG WITH SNOW MELT
HAVE PRODUCED SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF IN THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED AT MANY RIVER
POINTS IN THOSE AREAS AND SOME PLACES HAVE REACHED OR WILL REACH
MODERATE FLOOD STAGE...POSSIBLY MAJOR FLOOD STAGE ALONG THE
SCHROON RIVER. MANY HEADWATER POINTS HAVE CRESTED BUT RISES WILL
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY ON THE LARGER MAIN STEM RIVERS.

COLDER AIR WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING HAS MOVED INTO OUR AREA.
ANY LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION WAS IN THE FORM OF SNOW...SLOWING
DOWN THE RUNOFF. SOME SMALLER STREAMS MAY SEE ADDITIONAL SMALL RISES
TODAY AND THURSDAY FROM SNOW MELT.

DRY WEATHER IS IN STORE LATER TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AND RIVERS WILL
RECEDE LATER THIS WEEK. THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE
SATURDAY. SOME PRECIPITATION COULD FALL AS WET SNOW ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. QPF AMOUNTS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT FROM THIS VANTAGE
POINT.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...IAA/11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SND/HWJIV








000
FXUS61 KBOX 161150
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
750 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ONCE A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW COMES TO AN END EARLY
THIS MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY...BUT SEASONABLY COOL
WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH FRI. WEAK OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE MAY
BRING A SHOWER OR TWO LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT THEN DRY
THROUGH MON. A COLD FRONT COULD TRIGGER SHOWERS MON NIGHT AND TUE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
740 AM UPDATE...

ALL PRECIPITATION HAS NOW EXITED THE COAST. BRIGHT SUNSHINE WAS
PREVAILING ACROSS ALL OF THE REGION EXCEPT CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS...BUT IT SHOULD BREAK OUT THERE BY MID MORNING. THERE WERE
A FEW NARROW BANDS OF CUMULUS CLOUDS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA. STRONG WIND GUSTS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO MIX
DOWN...WITH 40 MPH AT MANCHESTER NH. WINDS ALOFT ARE ABOUT 40
KNOTS SO EXPECT THAT 40 MPH IS THE HIGHEST WE WILL SEE AT THE
SURFACE. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH LATER THIS MORNING AND
INTO THE AFTERNOON.

A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR ICY ROADS IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM
THIS MORNING. THERE HAVE BEEN SEVERAL SPINOUTS...PLEASE DRIVE WITH
CAUTION AS THE RAIN...SNOW...AND SLEET FROM LAST NIGHT HAS FROZEN
OVER IN AREAS WHERE THE TEMPERATURE HIT 32 OR COLDER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
EVEN THOUGH MIXING SHOULD BE REASONABLY DEEP...H85 TEMPS WILL BE
DROPPING TO ABOUT -10C. THEREFORE...DESPITE DECENT MID APRIL
SUN...HIGHS TODAY WILL STRUGGLE TO BREAK OUT OF THE 40S IN MOST
LOCALES.

ONE FINAL NOTE...REMNANTS OF A 40 KT NW LLJ WILL LIKELY BE TAPPED
SOMEWHAT EARLY TODAY AS WELL...ALTHOUGH IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR
THE MIXING TO EVEN REACH THE H92-H85 LAYER WHERE THIS RESIDES
BEFORE IT EXITS TO THE E THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...IT WILL BE A
BREEZY START...BUT WITH WIND GUSTS GENERALLY CAPPING AT AROUND
30-35 MPH BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...
HIGH PRES CRESTS OVER THE REGION. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SKIES TO
REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR AND WINDS TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT. THEREFORE...GOOD
SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING IN AN ALREADY SEASONABLY COLD
AIRMASS. EXPECT WITH INVERSIONS MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
COAST TO DROP BELOW FREEZING...WITH SEVERAL AREAS IN THE LOW TO
MID 20S.

THU...
HIGH PRES REMAINS IN CONTROL THANKS TO INVERTED RIDGING WITH THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH SLIDING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS SETUP
ALLOWS WINDS TO SHIFT TOWARD THE E-NE THROUGH THE DAY.
THEREFORE...DESPITE A CHANCE FOR TEMPS TO WARM SOMEWHAT WITH H85
TEMPS AROUND -1C E COASTAL LOCATIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN STRUGGLE TO
BREAK OUT OF THE LOW 40S GIVEN SST VALUES THEMSELVES IN THE LOW TO
MID 40S. AT OTHER INTERIOR LOCATIONS TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND TO THE
MID TO UPPER 40S WITH SOME AREAS FINALLY BREAKING BACK INTO THE
50S AS WELL. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY MOSTLY SUNNY...BUT SOME
HIGH CLOUDS MAY SCRAPE S COASTAL LOCATIONS AS AN OCEAN WAVE PASSES
WELL S OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
...HIGHLIGHTS...

* CHILLY THU NIGHT AND UNSEASONABLY COOL NEAR THE COAST FRI
* MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH MON
* CHANCE OF SHOWERS MON NIGHT AND TUE

AN ACTIVE NORTHERN JET STREAM WILL EXIST THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE
A SEPARATE SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW CUTS OFF AND MEANDERS OFF THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
NORTHEAST WILL KEEP IT COOLER THAN NORMAL THROUGH FRI...ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE COAST. THEN TEMPERATURES MODERATE TO NEAR SEASONAL
NORMALS OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL
LIKELY BRING SHOWERS MON NIGHT AND TUE.

DAILY DETAILS...

THURSDAY NIGHT...

VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
AND RIDGING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT THU NIGHT...BUT NOT QUITE AS CHILLY AS WED
NIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S EXCEPT MID 30S ISLANDS.

FRIDAY...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EASTWARD BUT THERE WILL BE
A COOL NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW OVER THE REGION. EXPECT LARGE
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES FROM THE COAST TO LOCATIONS FARTHER INLAND.
ACROSS EASTERN MA THE VERY CHILLY OCEAN WATERS WITH SSTS IN THE
LOWER 40S WILL ADVECT THIS VERY COOL AND SHALLOW MARITIME AIRMASS
INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN. THEREFORE ONLY EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE 40S
OVER EASTERN MA. THE APRIL SUN WILL HAVE MORE OF AN EFFECT IN THE
INTERIOR...WITH MID 50S IN THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...

MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM
WAVES. ALL MODELS HAVE WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SOUTHEAST OF THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK. THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS SUGGEST IT IS CLOSE
ENOUGH TO BRING A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER MAINLY SOUTHEASTERN
AREAS LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. BUT THE ECMWF IS FASTER WITH
A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WHICH KEEPS US DRY WITH THE LOW FAR ENOUGH
OFFSHORE. EXPECT THE REST OF SATURDAY TO BE PARTLY CLOUDY. THE
GFS HAS THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COOL POCKET OF AIR
OVERHEAD WHICH COULD LEAD TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY
BUT AGAIN OTHER MODELS ARE DRIER. ANYWAY...MUCH ADO ABOUT A SMALL
CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION PROVIDING DRY AND
SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER. HIGHS IN THE 50S SUNDAY. LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT MAINLY 35-40. HIGHS MON A LITTLE WARMER...IN THE UPPER 50S
AND LOWER 60S MONDAY. SUNSHINE WILL FADE BEHIND INCREASING
CLOUDINESS DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCE
ON THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. THE GENERAL
CONSENSUS IS THAT ANY CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE CONFINED
TO FAR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARD EVENING.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION MON NIGHT AND BEGINS TO WASH
OUT OVER THE AREA. SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ON PLACEMENT OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT...WITH GFS FAVORING A MID ATLANTIC LOW
AND THE ECMWF WINDING UP A STORM SYSTEM OFF THE CAROLINAS. THE NET
EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COULD SIMPLY BE A BAND OF LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS WITH A DECAYING FRONT. STILL LOOKING AT HIGH TEMPS
IN THE LOWER 60S TUE DESPITE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LOCAL IFR ON CAPE COD
AND NANTUCKET UNTIL 13-14Z THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE VFR EVERYWHERE.
NW WINDS GUST 25-35 KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT THEN
DIMINISH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS SHIFT TO THE
N...THEN NE BY TOMORROW.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY THRU FRIDAY...VFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF MVFR IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST HALF.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

NW GALE FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH MID
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A RAPID DECLINE IN WINDS. HOWEVER...SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST THE OCEAN
WATERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAY TO TOMORROW FOR SEAS
ALONE. WHICH WILL FALL FROM 7-10 FT TO AN AVERAGE OF 5-7 FT BY
TOMORROW MORNING.

OTHERWISE...E-NE WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN GUST AROUND 25 KT ON THE
SRN WATERS DURING THE DAY TOMORROW...SO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
WOULD BE NEEDED ANYWAY FOR WINDS.

IN ESSENCE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD..SAVE FOR THE NEAR SHORE WATERS LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT ONCE WINDS RECEDE.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THU NIGHT THRU FRI...TREND HERE WILL BE DECREASING SOUTHERLY
SWELLS WITH INCREASING ENE WIND WAVES. MAINLY DRY WITH MARITIME
AIRMASS OVER THE WATERS COURTESY OF 1040+ MB HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
NEWFOUNDLAND. OVERALL SEAS STILL 5 TO 7 FT OVER THE OUTER WATERS.

FRI NIGHT AND SAT...LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO PASS SOUTHEAST OF THE
BENCHMARK OF 40N 70W. NORTHEAST WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AND SEAS
BEGIN TO VERY SLOWLY SUBSIDE.

SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY...SEAS FINALLY SUBSIDE TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 5 FT OVER THE OUTER WATERS. NORTHWEST WINDS
BECOME NORTHEAST AGAIN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND...
BUT RELATIVELY LIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SEVERAL POINTS ALONG THE CT RIVER ARE FLOODING OR WILL BE IN MINOR
FLOOD SOON. WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE CT RIVER AT...
THOMPSONVILLE
HARTFORD
MIDDLE HADDAM
MONTAGUE
NORTHAMPTON

OTHER POINTS ALONG THE CT RIVER WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS WATER
CONTINUES TO RUNOFF FROM RAINS OVERNIGHT AND YESTERDAY AS WELL AS
DRAINAGE FROM RAIN AND MELTING SNOW ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND. IT
MAY TAKE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK FOR SOME OF THE WATERS TO
RECEDE BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT SOME OF THESE POINTS. ALSO...NOTE
THAT IT IS POSSIBLE SOME OF THESE MAY ALSO REACH MODERATE FLOOD AT
SOME POINT LATER IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS WELL BEFORE THEY
RECEDE.

OUTSIDE OF THE CT RIVER...THE PAWCATUCK AT WESTERLY CONTINUES TO
RISE AS WELL AND MAY NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL FLOODING
LATER IN THE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. BUT GIVEN THERE IS TIME TO MONITOR
THE RESPONSE NO WARNING IS CURRENTLY OUT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ230>234-236-250-251.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ235-237-256.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DOODY/FIELD
NEAR TERM...DOODY/FIELD
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...FIELD
AVIATION...DOODY/FIELD
MARINE...DOODY/FIELD
HYDROLOGY...STAFF




000
FXUS61 KOKX 161128
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
728 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TODAY AND DRIFTS NORTHEAST
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS MULTIPLE LOW PRESSURE AREAS RIDE A
STALLED FRONT TO THE EAST. THE HIGH FINALLY PUSHES OFF TO THE
EAST BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WITH LOW PRESSURE RETURNING FOR MID
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THIS MORNING AS COLD AIR MOVED
IN BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT AND TEMPERATURES FELL BELOW
FREEZING. AS OF 12Z...TEMPS HOVERING RIGHT AROUND FREEZING...WITH
THE EXPECTATION SHOULD WARM ABOVE FREEZING BY 10 AM. MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO TEMPS AND DEW PTS TO REFLECT CURRENT OBS.

RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH TODAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL BE DIMINISHING THROUGH THIS MORNING AND INTO EARLY AFTERNOON
AS COLD ADVECTION WEAKENS AND WINDS ALOFT DIMINISH...WITH MIXING
TO AROUND 900 MB. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE 40S. NORMAL HIGHS ARE AROUND 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS SURFACE
HIGH REMAINS TO THE NORTHEAST AND RIDGES DOWN ALONG THE EASTERN
SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS. THE COLD AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN APPROACH OF FALL
BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE AREA. NO RECORDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
BROKEN TONIGHT UNLESS TEMPERATURES FALL LOWER THAN FORECAST AS
SKIES WILL BE CLEAR AND WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE LIGHT IN THE
EVENING. THEN WITH THE HIGH BUILDING TO THE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE NORTHEAST BRINGING IN COOLER NORTHERN ATLANTIC
AIR LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THURSDAYS HIGHS WILL ONLY BE A
COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER THAN TODAYS HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
INITIALLY DRY WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE
HIGH PUSHES NORTH AND EAST WHILE THE AREA REMAINS UNDER BROAD
RIDGING. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT ALONG A
STALLED FRONT OFFSHORE THAT COULD BRING LIGHT PCPN INTO THE AREA BY
FRIDAY MORNING...THEN SLOWLY SPREADING TO THE NORTH FRI NIGHT INTO
SAT. 00Z GFS A BIT MORE PRONOUNCED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW AND
THE RESULTING PCPN WITH THE SUGGESTION OF INTERACTION BETWEEN A
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH/CLOSED
LOW. ALL OTHER MODELS KEEP A DISTINCT SEPARATION BETWEEN THE TWO SO
WENT AHEAD AND MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT CHC/CHC POPS FOR NOW WITH
UNCERTAINTY ON JUST HOW WIDESPREAD THE PCPN OCCURS. AN APPROACHING
FRONT SAT COULD TRIGGER SCT RAIN SHOWERS AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH. THINGS THEN DRY OUT FOR SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY WITH ZONAL FLOW
SETTING UP ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH INTO THE
NORTHEAST.

SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES IN THE HANDLING OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM NEXT WEEK. 00Z GFS LINGERS THE HIGH OVER THE NORTHEAST THEN
BRINGS A WEAK FRONT IN FROM THE WEST WHILE ECMWF AND CMC BOTH
DEVELOP A DECENT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF COASTAL FLORIDA AND TRACK
TO THE NORTH ALONG A STALLED FRONT. FLOW ALOFT SUGGESTS MORE OF A
GFS SOLUTION IN THIS CASE...SO SIDED MORE TO A GFS/WPC
BLEND...BRINGING POPS IN MONDAY NIGHT AND KEEPING THEM IN PLACE
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH THE FRONT REMAINING IN THE VICINITY AND
MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES RIDING THE FLOW ALOFT.

COOLER WEATHER IN STORE FOR THE TRI STATE AREA THURS NIGHT/FRI AS
THE POSITIONING OF THE HIGH KEEPS A COOLER EASTERLY/NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW DESPITE WAA ALOFT. HOWEVER...AS WINDS SHIFT FOR THE
WEEKEND...EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL. OVERALL...TEMPS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN WARM ENOUGH WITH TIMING OF PCPN TO KEEP PCPN IN
THE FORM OF RAIN. THURS NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT IN THE
EXTENDED...THOUGH CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTING FROST/FREEZE ISSUES IN
AREAS CURRENTLY IN THE GROWING SEASON.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA INTO THIS EVENING.

VFR.

MAIN ISSUE WILL BE THE WINDS. NW WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 15-20 KT
WITH 25-30 KT GUSTS THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING. WINDS GRADUALLY
DIMINISH DURING THE DAY AS WINDS VEER TO THE N. WIND GUSTS SHOULD
ABATE BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THE WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE N.

LATE TONIGHT...WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE EAST AT 5-10 KT.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST THIS
MORNING. 330-350 MAG 20G30KT.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST THIS
MORNING. 320-340 MAG 20G30KT.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST THIS
MORNING. 330-350 MAG 20G30KT.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES  SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST. NW
15-20G25-30 KT.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST. NW
15-20G25-30 KT.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST. NNW
20G30KT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.THURSDAY...VFR. E WIND G AROUND 20KT POSSIBLE.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRI NIGHT...VFR.
.SATURDAY...PSBL MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW CHANCE OF -SHRA. W-NW
WIND G25-30KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...VFR

&&

.MARINE...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. SMALL CRAFT GUSTS WILL CONTINUE ON ALL
WATERS INTO THE AFTERNOON. WHILE WINDS DIMINISH BELOW SCA
CRITERIA...SEAS ON THE OCEAN REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS TONIGHT
INTO AT LEAST THURSDAY WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING AND
INCREASING.

BRIEF PERIOD OF 25 KT GUSTS ON THE OCEAN WATERS THURS NIGHT...WITH
WINDS DIMINISHING HEADING INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
WATERS. WINDS REMAIN SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK. SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED ON THE OCEAN DURING THE
PERIOD...FINALLY SUBSIDING BY LATE SAT. SEAS THEN EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW 5 FT INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THEN NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
THAT WOULD HAVE HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS IS CURRENTLY FORECASTED
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WEEK.

NOTE...MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER.
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY CAUSE WATER LEVELS TO CONTINUE
TO RISE THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE FLOOD LEVELS
TO BE REACHED. MONITOR THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS FROM NWS TAUNTON MA.

NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS FOR THURSDAY MORNING APRIL 17:

EWR - 30 IN 1980  FORECAST LOW - 33
BDR - 30 IN 1962  FORECAST LOW - 31
NYC - 28 IN 1875  FORECAST LOW - 34
LGA - 32 IN 1980  FORECAST LOW - 36
JFK - 33 IN 1980  FORECAST LOW - 35
ISP - 30 IN 2005  FORECAST LOW - 30

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CTZ009>012.
NY...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ069>075-
     078>081-176>179.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ004-006-
     103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ330-
     335-338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS/MET
NEAR TERM...SEARS/MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...SEARS/MET
HYDROLOGY...SEARS/MET
CLIMATE...











000
FXUS61 KALY 161036
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
630 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.
SUNSHINE WILL RETURN TODAY BUT IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE MID MARCH
ALONG WITH A BRISK WIND. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED
OVER OUR REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. THE AIR MASS WILL SLOWLY MODERATE
WITH TIME WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING TOWARD NORMAL LEVELS BY
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 645 AM EDT...STILL TRACKING SOME LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND WEST BUT THESE WERE DIMINISHING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

TEMPERATURES WERE BELOW FREEZING ACROSS OUR ENTIRE REGION...TEENS
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOME OF THE COLDER SPOTS IN OTHER HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS ...20S ACROSS MOST OF THE MAJORITY OF AREAS.

MOST OF OUR AREA RECEIVED ACCUMULATING SNOW...GENERALLY IN THE 1-4
INCH RANGE. A BAND OF BRIEFLY HEAVY SNOW SET UP ACROSS LITCHFIELD
COUNTY WHERE UP TO LOCALLY UP TO 6 INCHES HAVE FALLEN. PLEASE REFER
TO PUBLIC STATEMENTS FOR ALL OUR LATEST SNOWFALL MEASUREMENTS.

WE ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT ADDRESSING THIS SITUATION THAT
WILL RUN THROUGH MORNING DRIVE (800 AM) FOR STANDING FROZEN SLUSH
AND BLACK ICE.

WE WILL BE LEFT WITH A DRY BUT COLD DAY FOR TODAY. CLOUDS WILL
GENERALLY DECREASE. H850 TEMPERATURES LOOK TO STAY NEAR OR EVEN A
LITTLE BELOW -10C. EVEN WITH GOOD MIXING AND GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE
(MIXED WITH FAIR WEATHER CU)...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RISE NO HIGHER
THAN THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. EVEN IN
THE VALLEY AREAS...HIGHS WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT IN THE 40 TO 45
RANGE. TO THE LEE OF THE CATSKILLS...THANKS TO A MORE DOWNSLOPING
WIND...HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND LOWER LITCHFIELD COUNTY.

THESE VALUES ARE PERFECTLY NORMAL FOR MID MARCH...BUT OVER 10
DEGREES LOWER THAN NORMAL FOR MID APRIL. A GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST
WIND 10 TO 25 MPH WILL ADD TO THE CHILL AT TIMES.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. THE WIND WILL
DIMINISH QUICKLY AND THE SKY WILL BE CLEAR DURING EVENING.
OVERNIGHT...SOME HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS MIGHT INCREASE DUE TO
WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT. EVEN SO...NEARLY IDEAL RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT. THE WILD CARD IS HOW FAST THE SNOW COVER
WILL MELT TODAY. GIVEN A STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE...ALONG WITH ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES...WE BELIEVE MOST OF IT WILL MELT. IF THAT
ISN`T THE CASE...TEMPERATURES COULD EVEN COLDER. (OUR FORECAST AGAIN
ASSUMES MOST AREAS SOUTH OF THE ADIRONDACK PARK WILL HAVE VERY
LITTLE IF ANY SNOW LEFT BY TONIGHT).

EVEN SO...TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S
FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD...TEENS NORTH.

THESE VALUES SHOULD JUST MISS RECORD LOWS. THE RECORD LOW AT ALBANY
FOR APRIL 17TH IS 21 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1971. IF SNOW REMAINS ON
THE GRASS BY TONIGHT...THERE IS AN INCREASED POSSIBILITY OF THIS
RECORD BEING ECLIPSED.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETREAT TO OUR NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. HIGHS THAT
MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST OFFER A GREATER OPPORTUNITY FOR A QUICKER
WARMUP DUE TO A MORE SSW FLOW. A HIGH TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL MEAN
MORE OF A SE FLOW WHICH THIS TIME OF YEAR USUALLY MEANS LESS OF WARM
UP. THE FLOW WILL BE WEAK...SO SUNSHINE WILL BE MAIN PLAYER
MODERATING THE AIR MASS ON THURSDAY. WITH MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS...WE
LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO REACH BACK TO AROUND 50 ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...LOWER TO MID 50S MOST VALLEY AREAS.

ANY LIGHT BREEZE LOOKS TO DECOUPLE THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH A MAINLY
CLEAR SKY EVERYONE LOOKS TO GET BELOW FREEZING ONCE
MORE...GENERALLY IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30.

FRIDAY...STILL WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE A LITTLE MORE BACK INTO THE 50S...UPPER 50S FROM ALBANY
SOUTHWARD. THESE VALUES WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS FOR
MID APRIL.

FRIDAY NIGHT...A CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH OUR
NORTHWESTERN ZONES. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS
AS WELL. IT MIGHT BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
MORE ABOUT THE CLIPPER WILL BE FOUND IN LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OUT ON THE WET SIDE WITH SHOWERS
EXPECTED FROM SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. DRIER WEATHER IS
THEN EXPECTED FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING. WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED AGAIN FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY

HERE ARE SOME SPECIFICS REGARDING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. ON SATURDAY
A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FA WITH A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE ALLOT OF MOISTURE WITH THE SYSTEM WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
DIMINISHING GREATLY AFTER 00Z SUNDAY. HIGHS ON SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S WITH THE LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN
THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOST OF THE SNOW HAS ENDED AT THE TAF SITES WITH MAINLY VFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT
KPSF WHERE SOME SNOW AND IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD LATE FOR ANOTHER HOUR
OR SO.

LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING WEDNESDAY EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME SKC
AND REMAIN SO UNTIL THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 06Z THURSDAY.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE STRONG OVERNIGHT MAINLY FROM THE NORTHWEST
AT 10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS OVER 30 KTS STILL AT KPSF. WINDS WILL LOWER
SOME WEDNESAY MORNING 8-12 KTS FROM THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH. THE
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 00Z THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ALL AREAS RECEIVED A HALF INCH TO OVER AN INCH OF RAIN IN THE LAST
24 HOURS. IN ADDITION MOST AREAS RECEIVED ACCUMULATION
SNOW...GENERALLY IN THE 1-4 INCH RANGE...ALTHOUGH SOME PLACES IN
CONNECTICUT LOOKED TO HAVE PICKED UP TO 6 INCHES.

WITH A STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE...MOST OF THE SNOW SHOULD BE GONE BY
DARK. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE WOODED AREAS...AND OF COURSE
PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE OLD SNOW COVERED LINGERED.

IT WILL BE A CHILLY AND BREEZY DAY WITH WEST OR NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS
TO 30 MPH OR A LITTLE HIGHER.

THE WIND WILL GO CALM TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW FREEZING
REGIONWIDE.

DRY WEATHER WITH A SLOW MODERATING TREND FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
DAYTIME WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER...GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHEAST 5 TO 15 MPH.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON SATURDAY. SOME OF THIS
MIGHT BE MIXED WITH SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. AT THIS POINT...THE QPF
LOOKS LIGHT...BELOW A QUARTER OF AN INCH IN THE VALLEYS...BUT WE
MIGHT EXCEED THAT AMOUNT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREENS OF VERMONT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD RAIN OF AN INCH TO TWO INCHES ALONG WITH SNOW MELT
HAVE PRODUCED SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF IN THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED AT MANY RIVER
POINTS IN THOSE AREAS AND SOME PLACES HAVE REACHED OR WILL REACH
MODERATE FLOOD STAGE...POSSIBLY MAJOR FLOOD STAGE ALONG THE
SCHROON RIVER. MANY HEADWATER POINTS HAVE CRESTED BUT RISES WILL
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY ON THE LARGER MAIN STEM RIVERS.

COLDER AIR WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING HAS MOVED INTO OUR AREA.
ANY LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION WAS IN THE FORM OF SNOW...SLOWING
DOWN THE RUNOFF. SOME SMALLER STREAMS MAY SEE ADDITIONAL SMALL RISES
TODAY AND THURSDAY FROM SNOW MELT.

DRY WEATHER IS IN STORE LATER TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AND RIVERS WILL
RECEDE LATER THIS WEEK. THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE
SATURDAY. SOME PRECIPITATION COULD FALL AS WET SNOW ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. QPF AMOUNTS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT FROM THIS VANTAGE
POINT.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SND/HWJIV










000
FXUS61 KOKX 160932
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
532 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TODAY AND DRIFTS NORTHEAST
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS MULTIPLE LOW PRESSURE AREAS RIDE A
STALLED FRONT TO THE EAST. THE HIGH FINALLY PUSHES OFF TO THE
EAST BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WITH LOW PRESSURE RETURNING FOR MID
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT EARLY THIS MORNING AS COLD AIR
MOVES IN BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT AND TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW
FREEZING. RECORD LOWS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. SEE CLIMATE
SECTION BELOW. THE LAST OF THE WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION MOVED
EAST OF THE AREA AT 09Z...AND UPDATED TO REMOVE FROM GRIDS.

RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH TODAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL BE DIMINISHING THROUGH THIS MORNING AND INTO EARLY AFTERNOON
AS COLD ADVECTION WEAKENS AND WINDS ALOFT DIMINISH...WITH MIXING
TO AROUND 900 MB. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE 40S. NORMAL HIGHS ARE AROUND 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS SURFACE
HIGH REMAINS TO THE NORTHEAST AND RIDGES DOWN ALONG THE EASTERN
SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS. THE COLD AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN APPROACH OF FALL
BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE AREA. NO RECORDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
BROKEN TONIGHT UNLESS TEMPERATURES FALL LOWER THAN FORECAST AS
SKIES WILL BE CLEAR AND WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE LIGHT IN THE
EVENING. THEN WITH THE HIGH BUILDING TO THE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE NORTHEAST BRINGING IN COOLER NORTHERN ATLANTIC
AIR LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THURSDAYS HIGHS WILL ONLY BE A
COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER THAN TODAYS HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
INITIALLY DRY WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE
HIGH PUSHES NORTH AND EAST WHILE THE AREA REMAINS UNDER BROAD
RIDGING. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT ALONG A
STALLED FRONT OFFSHORE THAT COULD BRING LIGHT PCPN INTO THE AREA BY
FRIDAY MORNING...THEN SLOWLY SPREADING TO THE NORTH FRI NIGHT INTO
SAT. 00Z GFS A BIT MORE PRONOUNCED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW AND
THE RESULTING PCPN WITH THE SUGGESTION OF INTERACTION BETWEEN A
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH/CLOSED
LOW. ALL OTHER MODELS KEEP A DISTINCT SEPARATION BETWEEN THE TWO SO
WENT AHEAD AND MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT CHC/CHC POPS FOR NOW WITH
UNCERTAINTY ON JUST HOW WIDESPREAD THE PCPN OCCURS. AN APPROACHING
FRONT SAT COULD TRIGGER SCT RAIN SHOWERS AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH. THINGS THEN DRY OUT FOR SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY WITH ZONAL FLOW
SETTING UP ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH INTO THE
NORTHEAST.

SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES IN THE HANDLING OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM NEXT WEEK. 00Z GFS LINGERS THE HIGH OVER THE NORTHEAST THEN
BRINGS A WEAK FRONT IN FROM THE WEST WHILE ECMWF AND CMC BOTH
DEVELOP A DECENT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF COASTAL FLORIDA AND TRACK
TO THE NORTH ALONG A STALLED FRONT. FLOW ALOFT SUGGESTS MORE OF A
GFS SOLUTION IN THIS CASE...SO SIDED MORE TO A GFS/WPC
BLEND...BRINGING POPS IN MONDAY NIGHT AND KEEPING THEM IN PLACE
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH THE FRONT REMAINING IN THE VICINITY AND
MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES RIDING THE FLOW ALOFT.

COOLER WEATHER IN STORE FOR THE TRI STATE AREA THURS NIGHT/FRI AS
THE POSITIONING OF THE HIGH KEEPS A COOLER EASTERLY/NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW DESPITE WAA ALOFT. HOWEVER...AS WINDS SHIFT FOR THE
WEEKEND...EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL. OVERALL...TEMPS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN WARM ENOUGH WITH TIMING OF PCPN TO KEEP PCPN IN
THE FORM OF RAIN. THURS NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT IN THE
EXTENDED...THOUGH CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTING FROST/FREEZE ISSUES IN
AREAS CURRENTLY IN THE GROWING SEASON.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA INTO THIS EVENING.

VFR.

MAIN ISSUE WILL BE THE WINDS. NW WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 15-20 KT
WITH 25-30 KT GUSTS THROUGH THIS MORNING. WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH
DURING THE DAY AS WINDS VEER TO THE N. WIND GUSTS SHOULD ABATE BY
LATE AFTERNOON AS THE WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE N.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST THIS
MORNING. 330-350 MAG 20G30KT.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST THIS
MORNING. 320-340 MAG 20G30KT.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST THIS
MORNING. 330-350 MAG 20G30KT.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES  SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST. NW
15-20G25-30 KT.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST. NW
15-20G25-30 KT.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST. NNW
20G30KT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 09Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...VFR. E WIND G AROUND 20KT POSSIBLE.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRI NIGHT...VFR.
.SATURDAY...PSBL MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW CHANCE OF -SHRA. W-NW
WIND G25-30KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...VFR

&&

.MARINE...
WIND GUSTS HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW GALE FORCE ON ALL THE WATERS AND
WILL REMAIN BELOW GALE AS WINDS ALOFT SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. SMALL CRAFT GUSTS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON.
THEN SEAS ON THE OCEAN REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS TONIGHT INTO
AT LEAST THURSDAY WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING AND INCREASING.

BRIEF PERIOD OF 25 KT GUSTS ON THE OCEAN WATERS THURS NIGHT...WITH
WINDS DIMINISHING HEADING INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
WATERS. WINDS REMAIN SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK. SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED ON THE OCEAN DURING THE
PERIOD...FINALLY SUBSIDING BY LATE SAT. SEAS THEN EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW 5 FT INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THEN NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
THAT WOULD HAVE HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS IS CURRENTLY FORECASTED
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WEEK.

NOTE...MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER.
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY CAUSE WATER LEVELS TO CONTINUE
TO RISE THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE FLOOD LEVELS
TO BE REACHED. MONITOR THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS FROM NWS TAUNTON MA.

NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS FOR THIS MORNING APRIL 16:

EWR - 26 IN 1943  FORECAST LOW - 29
BDR - 29 IN 1981  FORECAST LOW - 29
NYC - 29 IN 1928  FORECAST LOW - 29
LGA - 31 IN 1943  FORECAST LOW - 29
JFK - 33 IN 1962  FORECAST LOW - 30
ISP - 32 IN 2008  FORECAST LOW - 30

RECORD LOWS FOR THURSDAY MORNING APRIL 17:

EWR - 30 IN 1980  FORECAST LOW - 33
BDR - 30 IN 1962  FORECAST LOW - 31
NYC - 28 IN 1875  FORECAST LOW - 34
LGA - 32 IN 1980  FORECAST LOW - 36
JFK - 33 IN 1980  FORECAST LOW - 35
ISP - 30 IN 2005  FORECAST LOW - 30

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CTZ009>012.
NY...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ069>075-
     078>081-176>179.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ004-006-
     103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ330-
     335-338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS/MET
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...SEARS/MET
HYDROLOGY...SEARS/MET
CLIMATE...









000
FXUS61 KBOX 160853
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
453 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ONCE A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW COMES TO AN END EARLY
THIS MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY...BUT SEASONABLY COOL
WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH FRI. WEAK OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE MAY
BRING A SHOWER OR TWO LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT THEN DRY
THROUGH MON. A COLD FRONT COULD TRIGGER SHOWERS MON NIGHT AND TUE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DUAL POL CC/ZDR PRODUCTS CONTINUES TO SHOW A BAND OF MODERATE TO
EVEN HEAVY SLEET/SNOW PROGRESSING SLOWLY E ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING. CURRENT SETUP HAS IT MAINLY IN ERN CT AND THEN THROUGH
MA/RI E OF WORCESTER COUNTY MA. HOWEVER...THE BACK END OF THE DRY
AIR IN THE LOWEST LVLS IS ALSO RAPIDLY PROGRESSING E SUCH THAT
CURRENT TIMING HAS IT REACHING THE CAPE/ISLANDS BY ABOUT 9-10Z OR
SO. SO IT WILL BE A BATTLE BETWEEN THIS DRY AIR AND THE MIXING
LINE ACROSS ERN MA/CT AND RI. HOWEVER GIVEN THE PROGRESSION IT IS
LIKELY MOST AREAS WILL SEE A BRIEF CHANGE OVER TO A WINTRY MIX
BEFORE PRECIP ENDS.

ASIDE FROM THIS...THOSE AREAS WHICH HAVE SEEN SEVERAL HOURS OF
MIXED PRECIP ARE REPORTING SOME SNOWFALL VALUES OF 1.0 TO 2.0+
INCHES OF MIXED SNOW/SLEET. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH TEMPERATURES
WHICH ARE CONTINUING TO DECLINE AT OR BELOW FREEZING. WILL BE
ISSUING AN SPS HIGHLIGHTING THE THREAT FOR TREACHEROUS TRAVEL
ACROSS THE AREA EVEN AFTER THE PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED.

WITH THE PRECIP NEARLY FINISHED BY AROUND 10-12Z
EVERYWHERE...EXPECT RAPIDLY CLEARING SKIES AS WELL SUCH THAT
SEVERAL AREAS IN WRN MA/CT AND SW NH MAY ACTUALLY BE ABLE TO SEE
THE SUNRISE THIS MORNING.

OTHERWISE TODAY...THE TREND WILL BE TOWARD CLEARING SKIES
EVERYWHERE. HOWEVER DESPITE THIS...EVEN THOUGH MIXING SHOULD BE
REASONABLY DEEP...H85 TEMPS WILL BE DROPPING TO ABOUT -10C.
THEREFORE...DESPITE DECENT MID APRIL SUN...HIGHS TODAY WILL
STRUGGLE TO BREAK OUT OF THE 40S IN MOST LOCALES.

ONE FINAL NOTE...REMNANTS OF A 40 KT NW LLJ WILL LIKELY BE TAPPED
SOMEWHAT EARLY TODAY AS WELL...ALTHOUGH IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR
THE MIXING TO EVEN REACH THE H92-H85 LAYER WHERE THIS RESIDES
BEFORE IT EXITS TO THE E THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...IT WILL BE A
BREEZY START...BUT WITH WIND GUSTS GENERALLY CAPPING AT AROUND
30-35 MPH BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...
HIGH PRES CRESTS OVER THE REGION. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SKIES TO
REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR AND WINDS TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT. THEREFORE...GOOD
SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING IN AN ALREADY SEASONABLY COLD
AIRMASS. EXPECT WITH INVERSIONS MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
COAST TO DROP BELOW FREEZING...WITH SEVERAL AREAS IN THE LOW TO
MID 20S.

THU...
HIGH PRES REMAINS IN CONTROL THANKS TO INVERTED RIDGING WITH THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH SLIDING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS SETUP
ALLOWS WINDS TO SHIFT TOWARD THE E-NE THROUGH THE DAY.
THEREFORE...DESPITE A CHANCE FOR TEMPS TO WARM SOMEWHAT WITH H85
TEMPS AROUND -1C E COASTAL LOCATIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN STRUGGLE TO
BREAK OUT OF THE LOW 40S GIVEN SST VALUES THEMSELVES IN THE LOW TO
MID 40S. AT OTHER INTERIOR LOCATIONS TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND TO THE
MID TO UPPER 40S WITH SOME AREAS FINALLY BREAKING BACK INTO THE
50S AS WELL. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY MOSTLY SUNNY...BUT SOME
HIGH CLOUDS MAY SCRAPE S COASTAL LOCATIONS AS AN OCEAN WAVE PASSES
WELL S OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
...HIGHLIGHTS...

* CHILLY THU NIGHT AND UNSEASONABLY COOL NEAR THE COAST FRI
* MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH MON
* CHANCE OF SHOWERS MON NIGHT AND TUE

AN ACTIVE NORTHERN JET STREAM WILL EXIST THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE
A SEPARATE SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW CUTS OFF AND MEANDERS OFF THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
NORTHEAST WILL KEEP IT COOLER THAN NORMAL THROUGH FRI...ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE COAST. THEN TEMPERATURES MODERATE TO NEAR SEASONAL
NORMALS OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL
LIKELY BRING SHOWERS MON NIGHT AND TUE.

DAILY DETAILS...

THURSDAY NIGHT...

VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
AND RIDGING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT THU NIGHT...BUT NOT QUITE AS CHILLY AS WED
NIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S EXCEPT MID 30S ISLANDS.

FRIDAY...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EASTWARD BUT THERE WILL BE
A COOL NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW OVER THE REGION. EXPECT LARGE
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES FROM THE COAST TO LOCATIONS FARTHER INLAND.
ACROSS EASTERN MA THE VERY CHILLY OCEAN WATERS WITH SSTS IN THE
LOWER 40S WILL ADVECT THIS VERY COOL AND SHALLOW MARITIME AIRMASS
INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN. THEREFORE ONLY EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE 40S
OVER EASTERN MA. THE APRIL SUN WILL HAVE MORE OF AN EFFECT IN THE
INTERIOR...WITH MID 50S IN THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...

MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM
WAVES. ALL MODELS HAVE WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SOUTHEAST OF THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK. THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS SUGGEST IT IS CLOSE
ENOUGH TO BRING A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER MAINLY SOUTHEASTERN
AREAS LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. BUT THE ECMWF IS FASTER WITH
A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WHICH KEEPS US DRY WITH THE LOW FAR ENOUGH
OFFSHORE. EXPECT THE REST OF SATURDAY TO BE PARTLY CLOUDY. THE
GFS HAS THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COOL POCKET OF AIR
OVERHEAD WHICH COULD LEAD TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY
BUT AGAIN OTHER MODELS ARE DRIER. ANYWAY...MUCH ADO ABOUT A SMALL
CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION PROVIDING DRY AND
SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER. HIGHS IN THE 50S SUNDAY. LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT MAINLY 35-40. HIGHS MON A LITTLE WARMER...IN THE UPPER 50S
AND LOWER 60S MONDAY. SUNSHINE WILL FADE BEHIND INCREASING
CLOUDINESS DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCE
ON THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. THE GENERAL
CONSENSUS IS THAT ANY CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE CONFINED
TO FAR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARD EVENING.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION MON NIGHT AND BEGINS TO WASH
OUT OVER THE AREA. SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ON PLACEMENT OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT...WITH GFS FAVORING A MID ATLANTIC LOW
AND THE ECMWF WINDING UP A STORM SYSTEM OFF THE CAROLINAS. THE NET
EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COULD SIMPLY BE A BAND OF LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS WITH A DECAYING FRONT. STILL LOOKING AT HIGH TEMPS
IN THE LOWER 60S TUE DESPITE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

THROUGH 12Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.
MIX OF MAINLY MVFR/IFR WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR FROM W TO E THROUGH
12Z. WITH VFR EXPECTED AS PRECIP ENDS. ANY AREAS CURRENTLY RAINING
ALSO EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO A SLEET AND SNOW MIX FOR A BIT BEFORE
ENDING AS WELL...AND TRIED TO TIME THIS AS CLOSE AS POSSIBLE IN
THE TAFS. NW WINDS WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT CONTINUE.

AFTER 12Z TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. NW WINDS GUST 20-30 KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE
MORNING...BUT THEN DIMINISH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE N...THEN NE BY TOMORROW.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY THRU FRIDAY...VFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF MVFR IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST HALF.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

NW GALE FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH MID
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A RAPID DECLINE IN WINDS. HOWEVER...SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST THE OCEAN
WATERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAY TO TOMORROW FOR SEAS
ALONE. WHICH WILL FALL FROM 7-10 FT TO AN AVERAGE OF 5-7 FT BY
TOMORROW MORNING.

OTHERWISE...E-NE WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN GUST AROUND 25 KT ON THE
SRN WATERS DURING THE DAY TOMORROW...SO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
WOULD BE NEEDED ANYWAY FOR WINDS.

IN ESSENCE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD..SAVE FOR THE NEAR SHORE WATERS LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT ONCE WINDS RECEDE.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THU NIGHT THRU FRI...TREND HERE WILL BE DECREASING SOUTHERLY
SWELLS WITH INCREASING ENE WIND WAVES. MAINLY DRY WITH MARITIME
AIRMASS OVER THE WATERS COURTESY OF 1040+ MB HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
NEWFOUNDLAND. OVERALL SEAS STILL 5 TO 7 FT OVER THE OUTER WATERS.

FRI NIGHT AND SAT...LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO PASS SOUTHEAST OF THE
BENCHMARK OF 40N 70W. NORTHEAST WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AND SEAS
BEGIN TO VERY SLOWLY SUBSIDE.

SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY...SEAS FINALLY SUBSIDE TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 5 FT OVER THE OUTER WATERS. NORTHWEST WINDS
BECOME NORTHEAST AGAIN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND...
BUT RELATIVELY LIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SEVERAL POINTS ALONG THE CT RIVER ARE FLOODING OR WILL BE IN MINOR
FLOOD SOON. WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE CT RIVER AT...
THOMPSONVILLE
HARTFORD
MIDDLE HADDAM
MONTAGUE
NORTHAMPTON

OTHER POINTS ALONG THE CT RIVER WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS WATER
CONTINUES TO RUNOFF FROM RAINS OVERNIGHT AND YESTERDAY AS WELL AS
DRAINAGE FROM RAIN AND MELTING SNOW ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND. IT
MAY TAKE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK FOR SOME OF THE WATERS TO
RECEDE BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT SOME OF THESE POINTS. ALSO...NOTE
THAT IT IS POSSIBLE SOME OF THESE MAY ALSO REACH MODERATE FLOOD AT
SOME POINT LATER IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS WELL BEFORE THEY
RECEDE.

OUTSIDE OF THE CT RIVER...THE PAWCATUCK AT WESTERLY CONTINUES TO
RISE AS WELL AND MAY NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL FLOODING
LATER IN THE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. BUT GIVEN THERE IS TIME TO MONITOR
THE RESPONSE NO WARNING IS CURRENTLY OUT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ230>234-236-250-251.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ235-237-256.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DOODY/FIELD
NEAR TERM...DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...FIELD
AVIATION...DOODY/FIELD
MARINE...DOODY/FIELD
HYDROLOGY...STAFF




000
FXUS61 KALY 160850
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
445 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.
SUNSHINE WILL RETURN TODAY BUT IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE MID MARCH
ALONG WITH A BRISK WIND. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED
OVER OUR REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. THE AIR MASS WILL SLOWLY MODERATE
WITH TIME WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING TOWARD NORMAL LEVELS BY
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT...STILL DEALING WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW FLURRIES
AND SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY/ADIRONDACKS AND
GREATER CAPITAL REGION. THIS WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS AS THE SUBSIDENCE LOWERS...AND THE FLOW ALOFT BECOME
MORE ANTICYLONIC.

TEMPERATURES WERE AT OR BELOW FREEZING ACROSS OUR ENTIRE
REGION...TEENS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOME OF THE COLDER SPOTS
IN OTHER HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS ...20S ACROSS MOST OF THE MAJORITY OF
AREAS...UPPER 20S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...LOWER 30S MID
HUDSON VALLEY.

MOST OF OUR AREA RECEIVED ACCUMULATING SNOW...GENERALLY IN THE 1-4
INCH RANGE. A BAND OF BRIEFLY HEAVY SNOW SET UP ACROSS LITCHFIELD
COUNTY WHERE UP TO LOCALLY UP TO 6 INCHES HAVE FALLEN.

INITIALLY MOST ASPHALT SURFACES REMAINED WET. HOWEVER...IN THE CASE
OF HEAVIER SNOW...THEY TOO BECAME SLUSH COVERED. ANY STANDING SLUSH
AND WET SPOTS WILL FREEZE SOLID. WE WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT ADDRESSING THIS SITUATION THAT WILL RUN THROUGH MORNING
DRIVE (800 AM).

WE WILL LIKELY DROP A COUPLE MORE DEGREES THROUGH
SUNRISE...BOTTOMING OUT WELL DOWN INTO THE 20S MOST PLACES...TEENS
HIGHER TERRAIN.


WE WILL BE LEFT WITH A DRY BUT COLD DAY FOR TODAY. H850 TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO STAY NEAR OR EVEN A LITTLE BELOW -10C. EVEN WITH GOOD MIXING
AND GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE (MIXED WITH FAIR WEATHER
CU)...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RISE NO HIGHER THAN THE MID TO UPPER 30S
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. EVEN IN THE VALLEY AREAS...HIGH
WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT IN THE 40 TO 45 RANGE. TO THE LEE OF THE
CATSKILLS...THANKS TO A MORE DOWNSLOPING WIND...HIGHS SHOULD REACH
THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD
COUNTY.

THESE VALUES ARE PERFECTLY NORMAL FOR MID MARCH...BUT OVER 10
DEGREES LOWER THAN NORMAL FOR MID APRIL. A GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST
WIND 10 TO 25 MPH WILL ADD TO THE CHILL AT TIMES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. THE WIND WILL
DIMINISH QUICKLY AND THE SKY WILL BE CLEAR DURING EVENING.
OVERNIGHT...SOME HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS MIGHT INCREASE DUE TO
WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT. EVEN SO...NEARLY IDEAL RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT. THE WILD CARD IS HOW FAST THE SNOW COVER
WILL MELT TODAY. GIVEN A STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE...ALONG WITH ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES...WE BELIEVE MOST OF IT WILL MELT. IF THAT
ISN`T THE CASE...TEMPERATURES COULD EVEN COLDER. (OUR FORECAST AGAIN
ASSUMES MOST AREAS SOUTH OF THE ADIRONDACK PARK WILL HAVE VERY
LITTLE IF ANY SNOW LEFT BY TONIGHT).

EVEN SO...TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S
FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD...TEENS NORTH.

THESE VALUES SHOULD JUST MISS RECORD LOWS. THE RECORD LOW AT ALBANY
FOR APRIL 17TH IS 21 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1971. IF SNOW REMAINS ON THE
GRASS BY TONIGHT...THERE IS AN INCREASED POSSIBILITY OF THIS RECORD
BEING ECLIPSED.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETREAT TO OUR NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. HIGHS THAT
MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST OFFER A GREATER OPPORTUNITY FOR A QUICKER
WARMUP DUE TO A MORE SSW FLOW. A HIGH TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL MEAN
MORE OF A SE FLOW WHICH THIS TIME OF YEAR USUALLY MEANS LESS OF WARM
UP. THE FLOW WILL BE WEAK...SO SUNSHINE WILL BE MAIN PLAYER
MODERATING THE AIR MASS ON THURSDAY. WITH MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS...WE
LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO REACH BACK TO AROUND 50 ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...LOWER TO MID 50S MOST VALLEY AREAS.

ANY LIGHT BREEZE LOOKS TO DECOUPLE THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH A MAINLY
CLEAR SKY EVERYONE LOOKS TO GET BELOW FREEZING ONCE
MORE...GENERALLY IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30.

FRIDAY...STILL WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE A LITTLE MORE BACK INTO THE 50S...UPPER 50S FROM ALBANY
SOUTHWARD. THESE VALUES WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS FOR
MID APRIL.

FRIDAY NIGHT...A CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH OUR
NORTHWESTERN ZONES. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS
AS WELL. IT MIGHT BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
MORE ABOUT THE CLIPPER WILL BE FOUND IN LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OUT ON THE WET SIDE WITH SHOWERS
EXPECTED FROM SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. DRIER WEATHER IS
THEN EXPECTED FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING. WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED AGAIN FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY

HERE ARE SOME SPECIFICS REGARDING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. ON SATURDAY
A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FA WITH A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE ALLOT OF MOISTURE WITH THE SYSTEM WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
DIMINISHING GREATLY AFTER 00Z SUNDAY. HIGHS ON SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S WITH THE LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN
THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOST OF THE SNOW HAS ENDED AT THE TAF SITES WITH MAINLY VFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT
KPSF WHERE SOME SNOW AND IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD LATE FOR ANOTHER HOUR
OR SO.

LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING WEDNESDAY EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME SKC
AND REMAIN SO UNTIL THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 06Z THURSDAY.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE STRONG OVERNIGHT MAINLY FROM THE NORTHWEST
AT 10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS OVER 30 KTS STILL AT KPSF. WINDS WILL LOWER
SOME WEDNESAY MORNING 8-12 KTS FROM THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH. THE
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 00Z THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ALL AREAS RECEIVED A HALF INCH TO OVER AN INCH OF RAIN IN THE LAST
24 HOURS. IN ADDITION MOST AREAS RECEIVED ACCUMULATION
SNOW...GENERALLY IN THE 1-4 INCH RANGE...ALTHOUGH SOME PLACES IN
CONNECTICUT LOOKED TO HAVE PICKED UP TO 6 INCHES.

WITH A STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE...MOST OF THE SNOW SHOULD BE GONE BY
DARK. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE WOODED AREAS...AND OF COURSE
PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE OLD SNOW COVERED LINGERED.

IT WILL BE A CHILLY AND BREEZY DAY WITH WEST OR NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS
TO 30 MPH OR A LITTLE HIGHER.

THE WIND WILL GO CALM TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW FREEZING
REGIONWIDE.

DRY WEATHER WITH A SLOW MODERATING TREND FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
DAYTIME WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER...GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHEAST 5 TO 15 MPH.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON SATURDAY. SOME OF THIS
MIGHT BE MIXED WITH SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. AT THIS POINT...THE QPF
LOOKS LIGHT...BELOW A QUARTER OF AN INCH IN THE VALLEYS...BUT WE
MIGHT EXCEED THAT AMOUNT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREENS OF VERMONT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD RAIN OF AN INCH TO TWO INCHES ALONG WITH SNOW MELT
HAVE PRODUCED SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF IN THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED AT MANY RIVER
POINTS IN THOSE AREAS AND SOME PLACES HAVE REACHED OR WILL REACH
MODERATE FLOOD STAGE...POSSIBLY MAJOR FLOOD STAGE ALONG THE
SCHROON RIVER. MANY HEADWATER POINTS HAVE CRESTED BUT RISES WILL
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY ON THE LARGER MAIN STEM RIVERS.

COLDER AIR WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING HAS MOVED INTO OUR AREA.
ANY LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION WAS IN THE FORM OF SNOW...SLOWING
DOWN THE RUNOFF. SOME SMALLER STREAMS MAY SEE ADDITIONAL SMALL RISES
TODAY AND THURSDAY FROM SNOW MELT.

DRY WEATHER IS IN STORE LATER TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AND RIVERS WILL
RECEDE LATER THIS WEEK. THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE
SATURDAY. SOME PRECIPITATION COULD FALL AS WET SNOW ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. QPF AMOUNTS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT FROM THIS VANTAGE
POINT.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...SND/HWJIV










000
FXUS61 KOKX 160846
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
446 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TODAY AND DRIFTS NORTHEAST
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS MULTIPLE LOW PRESSURE AREAS RIDE A
STALLED FRONT TO THE EAST. THE HIGH FINALLY PUSHES OFF TO THE
EAST BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WITH LOW PRESSURE RETURNING FOR MID
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT EARLY THIS MORNING AS COLD AIR
MOVES IN BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT AND TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW
FREEZING. RECORD LOWS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. SEE CLIMATE
SECTION BELOW. THE LAST OF THE WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION WAS
MOVING OUT OF NEW LONDON COUNTY AND THE TWIN FORKS AT 08Z.

RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH TODAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL BE DIMINISHING THROUGH THIS MORNING AND INTO EARLY AFTERNOON
AS COLD ADVECTION WEAKENS AND WINDS ALOFT DIMINISH...WITH MIXING
TO AROUND 900 MB. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE 40S. NORMAL HIGHS ARE AROUND 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS SURFACE
HIGH REMAINS TO THE NORTHEAST AND RIDGES DOWN ALONG THE EASTERN
SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS. THE COLD AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN APPROACH OF FALL
BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE AREA. NO RECORDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
BROKEN TONIGHT UNLESS TEMPERATURES FALL LOWER THAN FORECAST AS
SKIES WILL BE CLEAR AND WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE LIGHT IN THE
EVENING. THEN WITH THE HIGH BUILDING TO THE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE NORTHEAST BRINGING IN COOLER NORTHERN ATLANTIC
AIR LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THURSDAYS HIGHS WILL ONLY BE A
COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER THAN TODAYS HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
INITIALLY DRY WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE
HIGH PUSHES NORTH AND EAST WHILE THE AREA REMAINS UNDER BROAD
RIDGING. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT ALONG A
STALLED FRONT OFFSHORE THAT COULD BRING LIGHT PCPN INTO THE AREA BY
FRIDAY MORNING...THEN SLOWLY SPREADING TO THE NORTH FRI NIGHT INTO
SAT. 00Z GFS A BIT MORE PRONOUNCED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW AND
THE RESULTING PCPN WITH THE SUGGESTION OF INTERACTION BETWEEN A
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH/CLOSED
LOW. ALL OTHER MODELS KEEP A DISTINCT SEPARATION BETWEEN THE TWO SO
WENT AHEAD AND MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT CHC/CHC POPS FOR NOW WITH
UNCERTAINTY ON JUST HOW WIDESPREAD THE PCPN OCCURS. AN APPROACHING
FRONT SAT COULD TRIGGER SCT RAIN SHOWERS AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH. THINGS THEN DRY OUT FOR SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY WITH ZONAL FLOW
SETTING UP ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH INTO THE
NORTHEAST.

SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES IN THE HANDLING OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM NEXT WEEK. 00Z GFS LINGERS THE HIGH OVER THE NORTHEAST THEN
BRINGS A WEAK FRONT IN FROM THE WEST WHILE ECMWF AND CMC BOTH
DEVELOP A DECENT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF COASTAL FLORIDA AND TRACK
TO THE NORTH ALONG A STALLED FRONT. FLOW ALOFT SUGGESTS MORE OF A
GFS SOLUTION IN THIS CASE...SO SIDED MORE TO A GFS/WPC
BLEND...BRINGING POPS IN MONDAY NIGHT AND KEEPING THEM IN PLACE
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH THE FRONT REMAINING IN THE VICINITY AND
MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES RIDING THE FLOW ALOFT.

COOLER WEATHER IN STORE FOR THE TRI STATE AREA THURS NIGHT/FRI AS
THE POSITIONING OF THE HIGH KEEPS A COOLER EASTERLY/NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW DESPITE WAA ALOFT. HOWEVER...AS WINDS SHIFT FOR THE
WEEKEND...EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL. OVERALL...TEMPS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN WARM ENOUGH WITH TIMING OF PCPN TO KEEP PCPN IN
THE FORM OF RAIN. THURS NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT IN THE
EXTENDED...THOUGH CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTING FROST/FREEZE ISSUES IN
AREAS CURRENTLY IN THE GROWING SEASON.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA INTO THIS EVENING.

VFR.

MAIN ISSUE WILL BE THE WINDS. NW WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 15-20 KT
WITH 25-30 KT GUSTS THROUGH THIS MORNING. WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH
DURING THE DAY AS WINDS VEER TO THE N. WIND GUSTS SHOULD ABATE BY
LATE AFTERNOON AS THE WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE N.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST THIS
MORNING. 330-350 MAG 20G30KT.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST THIS
MORNING. 320-340 MAG 20G30KT.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST THIS
MORNING. 330-350 MAG 20G30KT.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES  SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST. NW
15-20G25-30 KT.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST. NW
15-20G25-30 KT.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST. NNW
20G30KT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 09Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...VFR. E WIND G AROUND 20KT POSSIBLE.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRI NIGHT...VFR.
.SATURDAY...PSBL MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW CHANCE OF -SHRA. W-NW
WIND G25-30KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...VFR

&&

.MARINE...
WIND GUSTS HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW GALE FORCE ON ALL THE WATERS AND
WILL REMAIN BELOW GALE AS WINDS ALOFT SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. SMALL CRAFT GUSTS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON.
THEN SEAS ON THE OCEAN REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS TONIGHT INTO
AT LEAST THURSDAY WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING AND INCREASING.

BRIEF PERIOD OF 25 KT GUSTS ON THE OCEAN WATERS THURS NIGHT...WITH
WINDS DIMINISHING HEADING INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
WATERS. WINDS REMAIN SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK. SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED ON THE OCEAN DURING THE
PERIOD...FINALLY SUBSIDING BY LATE SAT. SEAS THEN EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW 5 FT INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THEN NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
THAT WOULD HAVE HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS IS CURRENTLY FORECASTED
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WEEK.

NOTE...MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER.
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY CAUSE WATER LEVELS TO CONTINUE
TO RISE THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE FLOOD LEVELS
TO BE REACHED. MONITOR THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS FROM NWS TAUNTON MA.

NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS FOR THIS MORNING APRIL 16:

EWR - 26 IN 1943  FORECAST LOW - 29
BDR - 29 IN 1981  FORECAST LOW - 29
NYC - 29 IN 1928  FORECAST LOW - 29
LGA - 31 IN 1943  FORECAST LOW - 29
JFK - 33 IN 1962  FORECAST LOW - 30
ISP - 32 IN 2008  FORECAST LOW - 30

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CTZ009>012.
NY...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ069>075-
     078>081-176>179.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ004-006-
     103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ330-
     335-338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS/MET
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...SEARS/MET
HYDROLOGY...SEARS/MET
CLIMATE...









000
FXUS61 KOKX 160824
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
424 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TODAY AND DRIFTS NORTHEAST
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS MULTIPLE LOW PRESSURE AREAS RIDE A
STALLED FRONT TO THE EAST. THE HIGH FINALLY PUSHES OFF TO THE
EAST BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WITH LOW PRESSURE RETURNING FOR MID
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT EARLY THIS MORNING AS COLD AIR
MOVES IN BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT AND TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW
FREEZING. RECORD LOWS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. SEE CLIMATE
SECTION BELOW. THE LAST OF THE WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION WAS
MOVING OUT OF NEW LONDON COUNTY AND THE TWIN FORKS AT 08Z.

RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH TODAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL BE DIMINISHING THROUGH THIS MORNING AND INTO EARLY AFTERNOON
AS COLD ADVECTION WEAKENS AND WINDS ALOFT DIMINISH...WITH MIXING
TO AROUND 900 MB. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE 40S. NORMAL HIGHS ARE AROUND 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS SURFACE
HIGH REMAINS TO THE NORTHEAST AND RIDGES DOWN ALONG THE EASTERN
SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS. THE COLD AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN APPROACH OF FALL
BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE AREA. NO RECORDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
BROKEN TONIGHT UNLESS TEMPERATURES FALL LOWER THAN FORECAST AS
SKIES WILL BE CLEAR AND WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE LIGHT IN THE
EVENING. THEN WITH THE HIGH BUILDING TO THE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE NORTHEAST BRINGING IN COOLER NORTHERN ATLANTIC
AIR LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THURSDAYS HIGHS WILL ONLY BE A
COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER THAN TODAYS HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
INITIALLY DRY WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE
HIGH PUSHES NORTH AND EAST WHILE THE AREA REMAINS UNDER BROAD
RIDGING. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT ALONG A
STALLED FRONT OFFSHORE THAT COULD BRING LIGHT PCPN INTO THE AREA BY
FRIDAY MORNING...THEN SLOWLY SPREADING TO THE NORTH FRI NIGHT INTO
SAT. 00Z GFS A BIT MORE PRONOUNCED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW AND
THE RESULTING PCPN WITH THE SUGGESTION OF INTERACTION BETWEEN A
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH/CLOSED
LOW. ALL OTHER MODELS KEEP A DISTINCT SEPARATION BETWEEN THE TWO SO
WENT AHEAD AND MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT CHC/CHC POPS FOR NOW WITH
UNCERTAINTY ON JUST HOW WIDESPREAD THE PCPN OCCURS. AN APPROACHING
FRONT SAT COULD TRIGGER SCT RAIN SHOWERS AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH. THINGS THEN DRY OUT FOR SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY WITH ZONAL FLOW
SETTING UP ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH INTO THE
NORTHEAST.

SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES IN THE HANDLING OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM NEXT WEEK. 00Z GFS LINGERS THE HIGH OVER THE NORTHEAST THEN
BRINGS A WEAK FRONT IN FROM THE WEST WHILE ECMWF AND CMC BOTH
DEVELOP A DECENT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF COASTAL FLORIDA AND TRACK
TO THE NORTH ALONG A STALLED FRONT. FLOW ALOFT SUGGESTS MORE OF A
GFS SOLUTION IN THIS CASE...SO SIDED MORE TO A GFS/WPC
BLEND...BRINGING POPS IN MONDAY NIGHT AND KEEPING THEM IN PLACE
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH THE FRONT REMAINING IN THE VICINITY AND
MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES RIDING THE FLOW ALOFT.

COOLER WEATHER IN STORE FOR THE TRI STATE AREA THURS NIGHT/FRI AS
THE POSITIONING OF THE HIGH KEEPS A COOLER EASTERLY/NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW DESPITE WAA ALOFT. HOWEVER...AS WINDS SHIFT FOR THE
WEEKEND...EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL. OVERALL...TEMPS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN WARM ENOUGH WITH TIMING OF PCPN TO KEEP PCPN IN
THE FORM OF RAIN. THURS NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT IN THE
EXTENDED...THOUGH CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTING FROST/FREEZE ISSUES IN
AREAS CURRENTLY IN THE GROWING SEASON.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE TERMINALS...AND
THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA INTO THIS EVENING.

CONDS WILL IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST FROM MVFR/IFR TO VFR AS THE
BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIP WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION. BY
08Z...CONDS SHOULD BE VFR THROUGHOUT.

MAIN ISSUE WILL BE THE WINDS. NW WINDS...320-350 TRUE...WILL RANGE
FROM 15-20 KT WITH 25-30 KT GUSTS THROUGH THIS MORNING. WINDS
GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING THE DAY AS WINDS VEER TO THE N. WIND
GUSTS SHOULD ABATE BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THE WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER
TO THE N.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...VFR. E WIND G AROUND 20KT POSSIBLE.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRI NIGHT...VFR.
.SATURDAY...PSBL MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW CHANCE OF -SHRA. W-NW
WIND G25-30KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...VFR

&&

.MARINE...
WIND GUSTS HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW GALE FORCE ON ALL THE WATERS AND
WILL REMAIN BELOW GALE AS WINDS ALOFT SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. SMALL CRAFT GUSTS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON.
THEN SEAS ON THE OCEAN REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS TONIGHT INTO
AT LEAST THURSDAY WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING AND INCREASING.

BRIEF PERIOD OF 25 KT GUSTS ON THE OCEAN WATERS THURS NIGHT...WITH
WINDS DIMINISHING HEADING INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
WATERS. WINDS REMAIN SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK. SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED ON THE OCEAN DURING THE
PERIOD...FINALLY SUBSIDING BY LATE SAT. SEAS THEN EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW 5 FT INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THEN NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
THAT WOULD HAVE HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS IS CURRENTLY FORECASTED
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WEEK.

NOTE...MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER.
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY CAUSE WATER LEVELS TO CONTINUE
TO RISE THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE FLOOD LEVELS
TO BE REACHED. MONITOR THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS FROM NWS TAUNTON MA.

NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS FOR THIS MORNING APRIL 16:

EWR - 26 IN 1943  FORECAST LOW - 29
BDR - 29 IN 1981  FORECAST LOW - 29
NYC - 29 IN 1928  FORECAST LOW - 29
LGA - 31 IN 1943  FORECAST LOW - 29
JFK - 33 IN 1962  FORECAST LOW - 30
ISP - 32 IN 2008  FORECAST LOW - 30

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CTZ009>012.
NY...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ069>075-
     078>081-176>179.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ004-006-
     103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ330-
     335-338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS/MET
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...SEARS/MET
HYDROLOGY...SEARS/MET
CLIMATE...








000
FXUS61 KBOX 160804
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
404 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ONCE A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW COMES TO AN END THIS
MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF DRY...BUT
SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER TO THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING A
ROUND OR TWO OF RAIN SHOWERS SOMETIME FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
THEN DRY AND COOLER SUNDAY/MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DUAL POL CC/ZDR PRODUCTS CONTINUES TO SHOW A BAND OF MODERATE TO
EVEN HEAVY SLEET/SNOW PROGRESSING SLOWLY E ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING. CURRENT SETUP HAS IT MAINLY IN ERN CT AND THEN THROUGH
MA/RI E OF WORCESTER COUNTY MA. HOWEVER...THE BACK END OF THE DRY
AIR IN THE LOWEST LVLS IS ALSO RAPIDLY PROGRESSING E SUCH THAT
CURRENT TIMING HAS IT REACHING THE CAPE/ISLANDS BY ABOUT 9-10Z OR
SO. SO IT WILL BE A BATTLE BETWEEN THIS DRY AIR AND THE MIXING
LINE ACROSS ERN MA/CT AND RI. HOWEVER GIVEN THE PROGRESSION IT IS
LIKELY MOST AREAS WILL SEE A BRIEF CHANGE OVER TO A WINTRY MIX
BEFORE PRECIP ENDS.

ASIDE FROM THIS...THOSE AREAS WHICH HAVE SEEN SEVERAL HOURS OF
MIXED PRECIP ARE REPORTING SOME SNOWFALL VALUES OF 1.0 TO 2.0+
INCHES OF MIXED SNOW/SLEET. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH TEMPERATURES
WHICH ARE CONTINUING TO DECLINE AT OR BELOW FREEZING. WILL BE
ISSUING AN SPS HIGHLIGHTING THE THREAT FOR TREACHEROUS TRAVEL
ACROSS THE AREA EVEN AFTER THE PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED.

WITH THE PRECIP NEARLY FINISHED BY AROUND 10-12Z
EVERYWHERE...EXPECT RAPIDLY CLEARING SKIES AS WELL SUCH THAT
SEVERAL AREAS IN WRN MA/CT AND SW NH MAY ACTUALLY BE ABLE TO SEE
THE SUNRISE THIS MORNING.

OTHERWISE TODAY...THE TREND WILL BE TOWARD CLEARING SKIES
EVERYWHERE. HOWEVER DESPITE THIS...EVEN THOUGH MIXING SHOULD BE
REASONABLY DEEP...H85 TEMPS WILL BE DROPPING TO ABOUT -10C.
THEREFORE...DESPITE DECENT MID APRIL SUN...HIGHS TODAY WILL
STRUGGLE TO BREAK OUT OF THE 40S IN MOST LOCALES.

ONE FINAL NOTE...REMNANTS OF A 40 KT NW LLJ WILL LIKELY BE TAPPED
SOMEWHAT EARLY TODAY AS WELL...ALTHOUGH IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR
THE MIXING TO EVEN REACH THE H92-H85 LAYER WHERE THIS RESIDES
BEFORE IT EXITS TO THE E THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...IT WILL BE A
BREEZY START...BUT WITH WIND GUSTS GENERALLY CAPPING AT AROUND
30-35 MPH BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...
HIGH PRES CRESTS OVER THE REGION. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SKIES TO
REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR AND WINDS TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT. THEREFORE...GOOD
SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING IN AN ALREADY SEASONABLY COLD
AIRMASS. EXPECT WITH INVERSIONS MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
COAST TO DROP BELOW FREEZING...WITH SEVERAL AREAS IN THE LOW TO
MID 20S.

THU...
HIGH PRES REMAINS IN CONTROL THANKS TO INVERTED RIDGING WITH THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH SLIDING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS SETUP
ALLOWS WINDS TO SHIFT TOWARD THE E-NE THROUGH THE DAY.
THEREFORE...DESPITE A CHANCE FOR TEMPS TO WARM SOMEWHAT WITH H85
TEMPS AROUND -1C E COASTAL LOCATIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN STRUGGLE TO
BREAK OUT OF THE LOW 40S GIVEN SST VALUES THEMSELVES IN THE LOW TO
MID 40S. AT OTHER INTERIOR LOCATIONS TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND TO THE
MID TO UPPER 40S WITH SOME AREAS FINALLY BREAKING BACK INTO THE
50S AS WELL. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY MOSTLY SUNNY...BUT SOME
HIGH CLOUDS MAY SCRAPE S COASTAL LOCATIONS AS AN OCEAN WAVE PASSES
WELL S OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY BUT UNSEASONABLY CHILLY WED NIGHT
* DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO FRI AND BECOMING MILDER INLAND
* A PERIOD OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT BUT LOW CONFIDENCE

AN ACTIVE AND SURPRISED NORTHERN STREAM JET THIS PERIOD WILL
RESULT IN TEMPERATURES AT OR COOLER THAN NORMAL ALONG WITH A FEW
CHANCES OF SHOWERS. VERY TYPICAL PATTERN FOR MID APRIL.

DAILY DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

CHILLY AIRMASS OVER THE REGION ALONG WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WINDS. THIS WILL RESULT IN COLD TEMPS OUTSIDE OF THE
URBAN AREAS WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE 20S!

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...

STRONG /1044 MB!/ HIGH PRESSURE ADVECTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
THIS WILL EVOLVE INTO A COOL MARITIME AIRMASS FOR SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WITH LARGE TEMP DIFFERENCES FROM THE COAST TO INLAND. ACROSS
EASTERN MA THE VERY CHILLY OCEAN WATERS WITH SSTS IN THE L40S WILL
ACT LIKE A SNOWCOVER AND ENHANCE THIS COOL MARITIME AIRMASS. CHILLY
ONSHORE WINDS WILL ADVECT THIS VERY COOL AND SHALLOW MARITIME
AIRMASS INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN. THEREFORE ONLY EXPECTING HIGHS IN
THE 40S OVER EASTERN MA...MEANWHILE STRONG APRIL SUN HEATS UP THE
INTERIOR INTO THE 50S. AIRMASS CONTINUES TO MODIFY FRI WITH HIGHS 45-
50 EASTERN MA AND 55-60 WELL INLAND.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...

MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE ON AMPLITUDE AND INTERACTION OF NORTHERN
AND SOUTHERN STREAM WAVES. 12Z GFS REMAINS MORE ROBUST AND PHASING
THAN THE 12Z ECMWF. THUS THE GFS IS THE WETTER SOLUTION OF THE TWO.
ENSEMBLES INDICATE MORE STREAM SEPARATION AND ARE SLOWER PHASING THE
STREAMS BUT THIS IS SOMEWHAT TYPICAL GIVEN THE LOWER RESOLUTION OF
THE ENSEMBLES.

TEMPS LIKELY REMAIN NEAR NORMAL...HIGHS IN THE 50S.

SUNDAY/MONDAY/TUESDAY...

AS EXPECTED LOTS OF TIMING ISSUES HERE GIVEN THE FAST FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN STATES. GIVEN THIS FLOW REGIME AND TIME RANGE HERE WILL
FOLLOW A MODEL BLEND WHICH YIELDS TEMPS NEAR NORMAL AND A RISK OF
SHOWERS IN THE MON NIGHT/TUE TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

THROUGH 12Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.
MIX OF MAINLY MVFR/IFR WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR FROM W TO E THROUGH
12Z. WITH VFR EXPECTED AS PRECIP ENDS. ANY AREAS CURRENTLY RAINING
ALSO EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO A SLEET AND SNOW MIX FOR A BIT BEFORE
ENDING AS WELL...AND TRIED TO TIME THIS AS CLOSE AS POSSIBLE IN
THE TAFS. NW WINDS WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT CONTINUE.

AFTER 12Z TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. NW WINDS GUST 20-30 KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE
MORNING...BUT THEN DIMINISH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE N...THEN NE BY TOMORROW.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY THRU FRIDAY...VFR VSBYS LIKELY WITH MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE...HIGHEST PROBABILITY ACROSS RI AND EASTERN MA.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE BUT
CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW.

SUNDAY...IMPROVING TREND WITH VFR LIKELY ALONG WITH INCREASING NW
WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

NW GALE FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH MID
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A RAPID DECLINE IN WINDS. HOWEVER...SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST THE OCEAN
WATERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAY TO TOMORROW FOR SEAS
ALONE. WHICH WILL FALL FROM 7-10 FT TO AN AVERAGE OF 5-7 FT BY
TOMORROW MORNING.

OTHERWISE...E-NE WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN GUST AROUND 25 KT ON THE
SRN WATERS DURING THE DAY TOMORROW...SO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
WOULD BE NEEDED ANYWAY FOR WINDS.

IN ESSENCE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD..SAVE FOR THE NEAR SHORE WATERS LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT ONCE WINDS RECEDE.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THU NIGHT THRU FRI...TREND HERE WILL BE DECREASING SOUTHERLY
SWELLS WITH INCREASING ENE WIND WAVES. MAINLY DRY WITH MARITIME
AIRMASS OVER THE WATERS COURTESY OF 1040 MB HIGH ACROSS
NEWFOUNDLAND.

FRI NIGHT AND SAT...LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST WITH LOW PRES
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH AND ANOTHER FROM THE GREAT LAKES. DILEMMA
WILL BE HOW MUCH SEPARATION BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS OR IF LOWS WILL
MERGE INTO ONE STRONGER SYSTEM. STILL TOO EARLY TO SAY.

SUNDAY...IMPROVING TRENDS WITH LOW PRES STRENGTHENING WELL EAST OF
NEW ENGLAND FOLLOWED BY A MODEST NW WIND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SEVERAL POINTS ALONG THE CT RIVER ARE FLOODING OR WILL BE IN MINOR
FLOOD SOON. WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE CT RIVER AT...
THOMPSONVILLE
HARTFORD
MIDDLE HADDAM
MONTAGUE
NORTHAMPTON

OTHER POINTS ALONG THE CT RIVER WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS WATER
CONTINUES TO RUNOFF FROM RAINS OVERNIGHT AND YESTERDAY AS WELL AS
DRAINAGE FROM RAIN AND MELTING SNOW ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND. IT
MAY TAKE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK FOR SOME OF THE WATERS TO
RECEDE BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT SOME OF THESE POINTS. ALSO...NOTE
THAT IT IS POSSIBLE SOME OF THESE MAY ALSO REACH MODERATE FLOOD AT
SOME POINT LATER IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS WELL BEFORE THEY
RECEDE.

OUTSIDE OF THE CT RIVER...THE PAWCATUCK AT WESTERLY CONTINUES TO
RISE AS WELL AND MAY NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL FLOODING
LATER IN THE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. BUT GIVEN THERE IS TIME TO MONITOR
THE RESPONSE NO WARNING IS CURRENTLY OUT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ230>234-236-250-251.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ235-237-256.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DOODY/GAF
NEAR TERM...DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...GAF
AVIATION...DOODY/GAF
MARINE...DOODY/GAF
HYDROLOGY...STAFF




000
FXUS61 KALY 160728
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
330 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANY LEFTOVER SNOW WILL END BEFORE DAYBREAK. HOWEVER...UNTREATED ROAD
SURFACES WILL LIKELY TURN TO BLACK ICE. THE SUN WILL RETURN TODAY
WITH COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE REGION. A GRADUAL WARM UP TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT...HAVE CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
LITCHFIELD COUNTY.

THE SNOW SHIELD HAS MOVED OUT OF THERE AS WELL AS THE REMAINDER OF
THE EASTERN AREAS. THERE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND EVEN GREATER
CAPITAL REGION. LITTLE OR NO ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED WITH
THIS ACTIVITY.

STILL CONCERNED IS THAT WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 20S...AND
MANY ROADS WET OR SLUSHY...UNTREATED ROADWAYS WILL BE ICY FOR THE
MORNING DRIVE. EARLIER...WE ISSUED SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS
ADDRESSING THIS CONCERN...AND WE MAY ISSUE ANOTHER RIGHT BEFORE THE
MORNING DRIVE COMMENCES.

LOWS BY DAWN WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 20S FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY SOUTH
AND EASTWARD...TEENS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. A GUSTY WEST WIND 15 TO
25 MPH WILL MAKE THESE VALUES FEEL ABOUT 10 DEGREES COLDER AT TIMES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
BREEZY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN...BUT PROSPECTS FOR QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE LOOKS GOOD.
STRONG SUN SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES REACH THE LOWER TO MID
40S...BUT 30S IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS. LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 20S...WITH TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
WARM ADVECTION. THERE SHOULD BE A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY DURING THE DAY
AND MOSTLY CLEAR AT NIGHT...OTHER THAN SOME PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS
FROM TIME TO TIME.

HIGHS THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 50 IN NORTHERN AREAS TO
LOWER TO MID 50S IN MOST OTHER AREAS. HIGHS FRIDAY SHOULD BE IN
THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A PERIOD OF DRY IN BETWEEN FAST-MOVING SYSTEMS MARKS THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.  SHOWERS MOVE IN WITH A COLD FRONT HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND...BEING CONFINED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO SATURDAY TO
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY.  THIS
WILL BE A WEAKER COLD FRONT THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE.  TEMPERATURES
WILL GET DOWN TO FROM AROUND 30 DEGREES IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND
GREENS...TO THE UPPER 30S DOWN THE HUDSON AND MOHAWK VALLEYS.  THIS
WILL RESULT IN A QUICK MIX-OVER OR CHANGEOVER TO SNOW APPROACHING
DAYBREAK SATURDAY AS THE SHOWERS CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST.

EARLY DAY HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S IN THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO AROUND 60 DEGREES IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.  CLOUDS AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL HELP SUPPRESS A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH LOW READINGS FROM THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S SATURDAY
NIGHT...SIMILAR TO FRIDAY NIGHT.  THIS COULD TURN ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...AND NORTH AND WEST OF THE
SARATOGA REGION BACK TO A MIX OR SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE ALL IS ENDED BY
DAYBREAK.

SUNDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 40S IN
THE GREENS AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO AROUND 60 DEGREES DOWN THE
HUDSON VALLEY.  THE DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
MORE OF THE SAME FOR LOW TEMPERATURES.  THE BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING FROM JAMES BAY TO THE GULF COAST SHIFTS EAST...AND A WEAK
LOW BRINGS IN THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT...THOUGH
IT IS EVEN LESS IMPRESSIVE THAN THE ONE BEFORE IT.  THIS WILL LIKELY
BE AN ALL-RAIN EVENT AS TEMPERATURES EVERYWHERE ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING WITH A WARM FRONT EVOLVING AND LIFTING NORTH
TOWARD OUR FORECAST AREA.  HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S AND
LOWER 60S WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOST OF THE SNOW HAS ENDED AT THE TAF SITES WITH MAINLY VFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT
KPSF WHERE SOME SNOW AND IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD LATE FOR ANOTHER HOUR
OR SO.

LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING WEDNESDAY EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME SKC
AND REMAIN SO UNTIL THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 06Z THURSDAY.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE STRONG OVERNIGHT MAINLY FROM THE NORTHWEST
AT 10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS OVER 30 KTS STILL AT KPSF. WINDS WILL LOWER
SOME WEDNESAY MORNING 8-12 KTS FROM THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH. THE
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 00Z THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
COLD AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE SUN WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. A GRADUAL WARM UP TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE.

ALL AREAS RECEIVED A HALF INCH TO OVER AN INCH OF RAIN IN THE LAST
24 HOURS. SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...EASTERN CATSKILLS...SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND
BERKSHIRES TONIGHT.

RH VALUES SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 60 PERCENT AND 90 PERCENT ONCE
PRECIPITATION ENDS TONIGHT...ALONG WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25
MPH AND GUSTS TO 35 MPH.

SUNSHINE RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH A BRISK WEST WIND 10 TO
20 MPH...BUT GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WEDNESDAY SHOULD FALL TO THE 25 TO
35 PERCENT RANGE.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT
WINDS LESS THAN 15 MPH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD RAIN OF AN INCH TO TWO INCHES ALONG WITH SNOW MELT
HAVE PRODUCED SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF IN THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED AT MANY RIVER
POINTS IN THOSE AREAS AND SOME PLACES HAVE REACHED OR WILL REACH
MODERATE FLOOD STAGE...POSSIBLY MAJOR FLOOD STAGE ALONG THE
SCHROON RIVER. MANY HEADWATER POINTS HAVE CRESTED BUT RISES WILL
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY ON THE LARGER MAIN STEM RIVERS.

COLDER AIR WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING HAS MOVED INTO OUR
AREA. LINGERING PRECIPITATION IS IN THE FORM OF SNOW...SLOWING
DOWN THE RUNOFF. SOME SMALLER STREAMS MAY SEE ADDITIONAL SMALL
RISES TODAY AND THURSDAY FROM SNOW MELT.

DRY WEATHER IS IN STORE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AND RIVERS
WILL RECEDE LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...VTK
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...SND










000
FXUS61 KALY 160554
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
154 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW WILL END OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...UNTREATED ROAD
SURFACES WILL LIKELY TURN TO BLACK ICE. THE SUN WILL RETURN ON
WEDNESDAY WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION. A GRADUAL WARM UP TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WILL OCCUR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 130 AM EDT...ISSUED A SHORT FUSED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
LITCHFIELD COUNTY.

ALREADY HAD A REPORT OF OVER 3 INCHES AND RADARS INDICATED THAT 1-2+
INCHES OF SNOW COULD BE FALLING IN CENTRAL LITCHFIELD COUNTY (DBZ
VALUES OVER 30 WERE COMMON) ALTHOUGH SOME OF THAT COULD BE SLEET.
WILL MONITOR AND SEE IF WE HAVE TO UPGRADE TO A WINTER STORM
WARNING. IT SEEMS TO MOVING SLOWLY TO THE EAST AND SHOULD BE GONE
AFTER 200 AM.

STEADY SNOW PULLING OUT OF SOUTHERN VERMONT AND THE BERKSHIRES. SOME
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WERE STILL SEEN COMING DOWN THE MOHAWK
VALLEY/ADIRONDACKS AND INTO THE GREATER CAPITAL REGION.

LITCHFIELD COUNTY LOOKS TO RECEIVE 2-6 INCHES OF SNOW...POSSIBLY A
FEW HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION HAVE AVERAGED 1-4
INCHES...GENERALLY HIGHEST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATION FROM HERE ON IN SHOULD GENERALLY BE AN INCH OR LESS.

STILL CONCERNED IS THAT WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 20S...AND
MANY ROADS WET OR SLUSHY...UNTREATED ROADWAYS WILL BECOME ICY. WE
HAVE ISSUE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS ADDRESSING THIS CONCERN.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 20S FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY
SOUTH AND EASTWARD...TEENS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. A GUSTY WEST WIND
15 TO 25 MPH WILL MAKE THESE VALUES FEEL ABOUT 10 DEGREES COLDER AT
TIMES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
BREEZY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN...BUT PROSPECTS FOR QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE LOOKS GOOD.
STRONG SUN SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES REACH THE LOWER TO MID
40S...BUT 30S IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS. LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 20S...WITH TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
WARM ADVECTION. THERE SHOULD BE A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY DURING THE DAY
AND MOSTLY CLEAR AT NIGHT...OTHER THAN SOME PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS
FROM TIME TO TIME.

HIGHS THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 50 IN NORTHERN AREAS TO
LOWER TO MID 50S IN MOST OTHER AREAS. HIGHS FRIDAY SHOULD BE IN
THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A PERIOD OF DRY IN BETWEEN FAST-MOVING SYSTEMS MARKS THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.  SHOWERS MOVE IN WITH A COLD FRONT HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND...BEING CONFINED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO SATURDAY TO
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY.  THIS
WILL BE A WEAKER COLD FRONT THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE.  TEMPERATURES
WILL GET DOWN TO FROM AROUND 30 DEGREES IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND
GREENS...TO THE UPPER 30S DOWN THE HUDSON AND MOHAWK VALLEYS.  THIS
WILL RESULT IN A QUICK MIX-OVER OR CHANGEOVER TO SNOW APPROACHING
DAYBREAK SATURDAY AS THE SHOWERS CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST.

EARLY DAY HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S IN THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO AROUND 60 DEGREES IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.  CLOUDS AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL HELP SUPPRESS A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH LOW READINGS FROM THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S SATURDAY
NIGHT...SIMILAR TO FRIDAY NIGHT.  THIS COULD TURN ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...AND NORTH AND WEST OF THE
SARATOGA REGION BACK TO A MIX OR SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE ALL IS ENDED BY
DAYBREAK.

SUNDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 40S IN
THE GREENS AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO AROUND 60 DEGREES DOWN THE
HUDSON VALLEY.  THE DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
MORE OF THE SAME FOR LOW TEMPERATURES.  THE BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING FROM JAMES BAY TO THE GULF COAST SHIFTS EAST...AND A WEAK
LOW BRINGS IN THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT...THOUGH
IT IS EVEN LESS IMPRESSIVE THAN THE ONE BEFORE IT.  THIS WILL LIKELY
BE AN ALL-RAIN EVENT AS TEMPERATURES EVERYWHERE ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING WITH A WARM FRONT EVOLVING AND LIFTING NORTH
TOWARD OUR FORECAST AREA.  HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S AND
LOWER 60S WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOST OF THE SNOW HAS ENDED AT THE TAF SITES WITH MAINLY VFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT
KPSF WHERE SOME SNOW AND IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD LATE FOR ANOTHER HOUR
OR SO.

LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING WEDNESDAY EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME SKC
AND REMAIN SO UNTIL THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 06Z THURSDAY.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE STRONG OVERNIGHT MAINLY FROM THE NORTHWEST
AT 10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS OVER 30 KTS STILL AT KPSF. WINDS WILL LOWER
SOME WEDNESAY MORNING 8-12 KTS FROM THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH. THE
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 00Z THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
COLD AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE SUN WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. A GRADUAL WARM UP TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE.

ALL AREAS RECEIVED A HALF INCH TO OVER AN INCH OF RAIN IN THE LAST
24 HOURS. SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...EASTERN CATSKILLS...SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND
BERKSHIRES TONIGHT.

RH VALUES SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 60 PERCENT AND 90 PERCENT ONCE
PRECIPITATION ENDS TONIGHT...ALONG WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25
MPH AND GUSTS TO 35 MPH.

SUNSHINE RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH A BRISK WEST WIND 10 TO
20 MPH...BUT GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WEDNESDAY SHOULD FALL TO THE 25 TO
35 PERCENT RANGE.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT
WINDS LESS THAN 15 MPH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD RAIN OF AN INCH TO TWO INCHES ALONG WITH SNOW MELT
HAVE PRODUCED SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF IN THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED AT MANY RIVER
POINTS IN THOSE AREAS AND SOME PLACES HAVE REACHED OR WILL REACH
MODERATE FLOOD STAGE...POSSIBLY MAJOR FLOOD STAGE ALONG THE
SCHROON RIVER. MANY HEADWATER POINTS HAVE CRESTED BUT RISES WILL
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY ON THE LARGER MAIN STEM RIVERS.

COLDER AIR WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING HAS MOVED INTO OUR
AREA. LINGERING PRECIPITATION IS IN THE FORM OF SNOW...SLOWING
DOWN THE RUNOFF. SOME SMALLER STREAMS MAY SEE ADDITIONAL SMALL
RISES TODAY AND THURSDAY FROM SNOW MELT.

DRY WEATHER IS IN STORE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AND RIVERS
WILL RECEDE LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     CTZ001-013.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...VTK
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...SND








000
FXUS61 KOKX 160553
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
153 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE OUT TO SEA OVERNIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. THE
HIGH THEN LIFTS UP INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY AND UP INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS ALONG A STALLED FRONT TO THE SOUTH FRIDAY
NIGHT AND PASSES EAST OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE WITH THE
APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH CAPE COD EARLY THIS MORNING AS
HIGH PRESSURE WAS BUILDING OVER THE REGION. RAIN WAS TRANSITIONS
TO LIGHT SNOW BEFORE ENDING AS THE COLD AIR MOVES INTO BEHIND THE
FRONT. AT MIDNIGHT THE SNOW WAS AS FAR EAST AS CENTRAL SOUTHERN
CONNECTICUT...NEAR BDR TO JUST WEST OF ISLIP. AND THE SNOW WAS
ENDING ACROSS WESTERN ORANGE COUNTY AND INTO WESTERN PASSAIC
COUNTY. FORECAST POPS AND PRECIP TYPE ON TRACK. UPDATED WIND AND
TEMPERATURES FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS.

SLOWED THE ENDING OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CWA DUE TO THE
SLOWER TREND INDICATED BY RADAR...SUPPORTING THE SLOWER 18Z NAM
SOLN.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND FREEZING. THUS...
THE FREEZE WARNING HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO ALSO INCLUDE NYC...LONG
ISLAND...AND COASTAL CT. THIS IS IN ADDITION TO MOST OF NE NJ AND
ROCKLAND AND WESTCHESTER COUNTIES IN NEW YORK. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
TRENDING COLDER. BASED ON THE ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIR MASS...USED
MODEL 2M TEMPS FOR LOWS...WHICH WAS SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW MOS
GUIDANCE. LOWS WILL BE CLOSE TO RECORDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ON WED WITH AN
ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIR MASS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER
40S...WHICH IS SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. GUSTY NW WINDS
WILL LINGER INTO THE AFT...MAKING IT FEEL MORE LIKE THE MID AND
UPPER 30S.

WED NIGHT WILL FEATURE ANOTHER POSSIBLE RECORD COLD NIGHT WITH
MOST LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE NYC METRO DROPPING BELOW FREEZING.
ANOTHER FREEZE IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE
REGION WILL BE ON THE WEST SIDE OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY SHIFTS INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES BY FRIDAY. THIS PATTERN SETS UP AN EAST TO
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS. THIS ONSHORE FLOW SERVES TO
KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S
AND LOWER 50S ON THURSDAY AND LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S ON FRIDAY.
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING COULD PROMOTE DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN...MAINLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN ZONES. HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DURING THIS TIME.

THE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES APPROACHES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG A STALLED
FRONT OFFSHORE. MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE KEEPS THE LOW FAR ENOUGH
OFFSHORE TO PREVENT A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT. THE MODELS DIFFER ON
THE AMPLITUDE...TIMING...AND PLACEMENT OF THE VORTICITY MAXIMA
WITHIN THE UPPER TROUGH HOWEVER. AT THE VERY LEAST...SATURDAY WILL
BE MOSTLY CLOUDY AND HAVE CONTINUED A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE. DUE TO CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION...TEMPERATURES CONTINUE BELOW NORMAL IN THE 50S.

A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW SETS UP ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUES INTO MONDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN DURING THIS TIME WITH DRY
CONDITIONS. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON
SUNDAY AND THEN WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL ON MONDAY.

A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH ON TUESDAY
BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. HIGH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AT THIS
TIME SO HAVE ONLY INCLUDED CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
NEAR NORMAL IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE TERMINALS...AND
THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA INTO THIS EVENING.

CONDS WILL IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST FROM MVFR/IFR TO VFR AS THE
BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIP WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION. BY
08Z...CONDS SHOULD BE VFR THROUGHOUT.

MAIN ISSUE WILL BE THE WINDS. NW WINDS...320-350 TRUE...WILL RANGE
FROM 15-20 KT WITH 25-30 KT GUSTS THROUGH THIS MORNING. WINDS
GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING THE DAY AS WINDS VEER TO THE N. WIND
GUSTS SHOULD ABATE BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THE WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER
TO THE N.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...VFR. E WIND G AROUND 20KT POSSIBLE.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRI NIGHT...VFR.
.SATURDAY...PSBL MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW CHANCE OF -SHRA. W-NW
WIND G25-30KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...VFR

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS HAVE BEGUN TO SUBSIDE IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW AND HAVE BEEN RUNNING A FOOT TO 2 FEET BELOW FORECAST
VALUES...SO LOWERED SEAS THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS FOR NW FLOW UP TO 35 KT
OVERNIGHT.

MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE THEN POSSIBLE ON WED...MAINLY WITH
LINGERING 5 FT SEAS.

SCA WINDS AND SEAS LIKELY ON THURSDAY AS EASTERLY FLOW INCREASES.
WINDS WILL TREND BELOW SCA LEVELS FRIDAY BUT SEAS ON OFFSHORE WATERS
SHOULD STAY ABOVE SCA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
RELAX ON SATURDAY AS REGION WEAKER FLOW SETS UP OVER THE WATERS.
SEAS AND WINDS COULD RETURN TO SCA LEVELS ON SUNDAY WITH INCREASED
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL HAS ENDED ACROSS THE REGION. IN GENERAL...UP
TO 3/4 OF AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH
THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS E OF NYC.

NOTE...MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER.
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY CAUSE WATER LEVELS TO CONTINUE
TO RISE THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE FLOOD LEVELS
TO BE REACHED. MONITOR THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS FROM NWS TAUNTON MA.

NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS FOR WEDNESDAY APRIL 16:

EWR - 26 IN 1943  FORECAST LOW - 29
BDR - 29 IN 1981  FORECAST LOW - 29
NYC - 29 IN 1928  FORECAST LOW - 29
LGA - 31 IN 1943  FORECAST LOW - 29
JFK - 33 IN 1962  FORECAST LOW - 30
ISP - 32 IN 2008  FORECAST LOW - 30

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CTZ009>012.
NY...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ069>075-
     078>081-176>179.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ004-006-
     103>108.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/DS/DW
NEAR TERM...JMC/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...JMC/DS/DW
HYDROLOGY...DS/DW
CLIMATE...









000
FXUS61 KBOX 160539
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
139 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHARP COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT WILL BRING A
MIX OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY RAIN...AND EVEN A BRIEF CHANGE
TO A WINTRY MIX BEFORE ENDING EARLY ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
IMMEDIATE FOLLOWING BRINGING DRY BUT UNSEASONABLE CONDITIONS FOR
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THURSDAY INTO
THE FIRST PART OF FRIDAY WITH MODERATING AFTERNOON TEMPS INLAND...
BUT REMAINING CHILLY ALONG THE COAST. LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING A
ROUND OR TWO OF RAIN SHOWERS SOMETIME FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
THEN DRY AND COOLER SUNDAY/MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
1 AM UPDATE...
DUAL POL RADAR ZDR/CC SHOWS A VERY DISTINCT TRANSITION TO A MIX OF
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN MOVING E ACROSS THE REGION FROM CENTRAL CT
TO ABOUT MHT. SECONDARY WAVE IS MOVING INTO LONG ISLAND AT THIS
TIME AS WELL...SO EXPECT A TRANSITION TO A SHORT PERIOD OF BOTH
SNOW AND SLEET EVERYWHERE BEFORE PRECIP ENDS...WITH SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...ALREADY SEE DRY AIR MOVING IN
RAPIDLY FROM THE W CUTTING OFF THE LOW LVL MOISTURE. HAVE NOTICED
CIGS RISING AS THIS DRY AIR MOVES IN. THEREFORE...FEEL THAT
THROUGH THESE EARLY MORNING HOURS...PRECIP WILL BE RAPIDLY ENDING
FROM W TO E.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

COLD FRONT NOW PUSHING INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. WIDESPREAD RAIN
WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS LENDING TO NUMEROUS OBSERVATIONS OF
SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WITH ISOLATED GUSTS UP
TO AROUND 50 MPH. THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE RAIN IS LENDING TO
A QUARTER- TO HALF-INCH PER HOUR RAINFALL AMOUNTS...NOT SO MUCH AN
ISSUE TOWARDS FLASH FLOODING...BUT ENOUGH OVER THE COURSE OF TODAY
INTO THIS EVENING TO LEND TO RIVER AND URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.

THREATS AND ASSOCIATED IMPACTS ARE OUTLINED BELOW:

HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING...

FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR MULTIPLE POINTS ALONG THE
CONNECTICUT RIVER BASIN WITH THE EXPECTATION OF MINOR RIVER
FLOODING...PERHAPS MODERATE FLOODING AT MIDDLE HADDAM.

SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH ASSOCIATED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN
EXCESS OF 1.5-INCHES SURGING NORTH WITH THE AMPLIFYING LOW-LEVEL
FLOW /70-80 KTS PRESENTLY PER WSR-88D VERTICAL WIND PROFILERS/ IS
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH ON THE ORDER OF 3-4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL.

CONVERGENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND ALONG THE NOSE OF THE LOW-
LEVEL-JET...MOISTURE IS UNDERGOING BOTH FRONTOGENETICAL LIFT AND
STRONG DEEP-LAYER ASCENT BENEATH AN AREA OF STRONG UPPER-LEVEL
DIVERGENCE PER RRQ. THIS IS LENDING TO WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS AND EVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS /ESPECIALLY IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT OVER
NJ INTO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY TOWARDS THE BERKSHIRES/.

WHILE RAINFALL RATES HAVE BEEN ANYWHERE FROM A QUARTER TO HALF-
AN-INCH PER HOUR...THE CUMULATIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE AROUND 2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS AROUND 3 INCHES IN
A TIME-FRAME ROUGHLY AROUND 6-HOURS. THUS THE FLOOD WATCH
CONTINUES.

THE BASIS FOR THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES TO BE A FOCUS UPON ALREADY
SWOLLEN RIVERS FROM UPSTREAM SNOWMELT TAKING ON ADDITIONAL WATER
GOING INTO MINOR FLOODING...POSSIBLY INTO MODERATE FLOOD FOR THE
CONNECTICUT RIVER AT MIDDLE HADDAM.

RIVER BASINS OF CONCERN INCLUDE CONNECTICUT/MERRIMACK/PAWCATUCK.
ALSO ANTICIPATE IMPACTS TO LOCAL STREAMS/CREEKS/TRIBUTARIES...
ESPECIALLY THOSE THAT ARE NARROWER AND FLASHIER. THOSE WITH
INTERESTS ALONG AREA RIVERS SHOULD PAY ATTENTION TO THE LATEST
FORECASTS AND CURRENT WATER LEVELS.

THE FLOOD WATCH ALSO INCLUDES URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE ISSUES FOR
THE DRIVE-HOME COMMUTE PRESENTLY ONGOING FOR ALL ROADWAYS ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. PONDING OF WATER THE BIGGEST CONCERN.

PLEASE SEE THE COASTAL FLOODING SECTION BELOW FOR COASTAL FLOOD
THREATS.

WINDS...

SEVERAL LOCATIONS ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN NEW ENGLAND OBSERVING
WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS /46 MPH/. WSR-88D VERTICAL WIND
PROFILERS SHOWING WINDS AT H925 AMPLIFYING TO 70 KTS. INCREASING
AREAL COVERAGE OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS AIDING IN THE
PRECIP-DRAG / MECHANICAL MIXING OF FASTER MOMENTUM ALOFT DOWN TO
THE SURFACE. SHOULD SEE THESE WINDS CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. WIND ADVISORIES CONTINUE ACCORDINGLY.

THOSE TRAVELING OVER BRIDGES /THINKING THE SAGAMORE AND BOURNE/
SHOULD BE AWARE OF FIERCE CROSSWINDS. GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE. ALREADY RECEIVING NUMEROUS REPORTS OF TREES AND
WIRES DOWN...BLOWN TRANSFORMERS AND POWER OUTAGES. THESE IMPACTS
AND THREATS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION.

WINTRY MIX/FLASH FREEZE POTENTIAL...

TEMPERATURES QUICKLY FALLING IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS
WINDS BACK OUT OF THE WEST. ALREADY TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S ARE
ENCROACHING INTO THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY REGION. EXPECTING THIS
COLD AIR TO SURGE INTO THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...
MAINLY AROUND AND AFTER MIDNIGHT.

CONSIDERING THE STRONG DYNAMICS AND LIFT TO THE REAR OF THE COLD
FRONT...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING PRECIPITATION WITHIN
THE SHALLOW COLD-AIR MASS IN THE FORM OF A WINTRY MIX.

THUS A BRIEF CHANGEOVER TO A SNOW/SLEET MIX IS POSSIBLE...MAINLY
ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
THE ROUTE-2 CORRIDOR INCORPORATING NORTHERN MASSACHUSETTS AND
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. LIKELY TO SEE AN INCREASE IN LIKELIHOOD
ALONG WESTERN SLOPES OF HIGHER TERRAIN. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIGHT AROUND A TRACE TO PERHAPS A TENTH OR TWO...ENOUGH TO MAKE
FOR SLIPPERY CONDITIONS.

DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REAR OF THE STORM RESULTING IN THE
BACK EDGE OF PRECIP TO DISSIPATE. THIS DRIER AIR CAN BE SEEN
WITHIN THE MID-LEVELS PER WATER-VAPOR IMAGERY...BUT SHOULD ALSO
SEE THIS DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE. THUS IT IS A QUESTION AS TO
WHETHER WET SURFACES WILL FREEZE AHEAD OF EVAPORATING. EITHER
WHICH WAY...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR BLACK-ICE AND SLIPPERY
CONDITIONS THAT MAY EXIST FOR THE WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...

AN UNSEASONABLY CHILLY AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO WORK INTO THE REGION
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. ANY LEFT OVER PRECIP
SHOULD EXIT THE CAPE/ISLANDS BY MID-MORNING AT THE LATEST AS THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE.

WESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH DURING THE
MORNING...BUT WILL DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS AIDED BY
ANOMALOUSLY COLD H85 TEMPS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BETWEEN -6C AND
-10C ALLOWING FOR EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING.

THOUGH WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES...PLENTY OF STRONG APRIL
SUNSHINE WILL OFFSET COLDER AIR ALOFT TO SOME DEGREE. ALL IN
ALL...MUCH OF THE REGION SHOULD SEE HIGHS RECOVER WELL INTO THE
40S DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY BUT UNSEASONABLY CHILLY WED NIGHT
* DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO FRI AND BECOMING MILDER INLAND
* A PERIOD OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT BUT LOW CONFIDENCE

AN ACTIVE AND SURPRISED NORTHERN STREAM JET THIS PERIOD WILL
RESULT IN TEMPERATURES AT OR COOLER THAN NORMAL ALONG WITH A FEW
CHANCES OF SHOWERS. VERY TYPICAL PATTERN FOR MID APRIL.

DAILY DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

CHILLY AIRMASS OVER THE REGION ALONG WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WINDS. THIS WILL RESULT IN COLD TEMPS OUTSIDE OF THE
URBAN AREAS WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE 20S!

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...

STRONG /1044 MB!/ HIGH PRESSURE ADVECTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
THIS WILL EVOLVE INTO A COOL MARITIME AIRMASS FOR SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WITH LARGE TEMP DIFFERENCES FROM THE COAST TO INLAND. ACROSS
EASTERN MA THE VERY CHILLY OCEAN WATERS WITH SSTS IN THE L40S WILL
ACT LIKE A SNOWCOVER AND ENHANCE THIS COOL MARITIME AIRMASS. CHILLY
ONSHORE WINDS WILL ADVECT THIS VERY COOL AND SHALLOW MARITIME
AIRMASS INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN. THEREFORE ONLY EXPECTING HIGHS IN
THE 40S OVER EASTERN MA...MEANWHILE STRONG APRIL SUN HEATS UP THE
INTERIOR INTO THE 50S. AIRMASS CONTINUES TO MODIFY FRI WITH HIGHS 45-
50 EASTERN MA AND 55-60 WELL INLAND.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...

MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE ON AMPLITUDE AND INTERACTION OF NORTHERN
AND SOUTHERN STREAM WAVES. 12Z GFS REMAINS MORE ROBUST AND PHASING
THAN THE 12Z ECMWF. THUS THE GFS IS THE WETTER SOLUTION OF THE TWO.
ENSEMBLES INDICATE MORE STREAM SEPARATION AND ARE SLOWER PHASING THE
STREAMS BUT THIS IS SOMEWHAT TYPICAL GIVEN THE LOWER RESOLUTION OF
THE ENSEMBLES.

TEMPS LIKELY REMAIN NEAR NORMAL...HIGHS IN THE 50S.

SUNDAY/MONDAY/TUESDAY...

AS EXPECTED LOTS OF TIMING ISSUES HERE GIVEN THE FAST FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN STATES. GIVEN THIS FLOW REGIME AND TIME RANGE HERE WILL
FOLLOW A MODEL BLEND WHICH YIELDS TEMPS NEAR NORMAL AND A RISK OF
SHOWERS IN THE MON NIGHT/TUE TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

THROUGH 12Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.
MIX OF MAINLY MVFR/IFR WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR FROM W TO E THROUGH
12Z. WITH VFR EXPECTED AS PRECIP ENDS. ANY AREAS CURRENTLY RAINING
ALSO EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO A SLEET AND SNOW MIX FOR A BIT BEFORE
ENDING AS WELL...AND TRIED TO TIME THIS AS CLOSE AS POSSIBLE IN
THETAFS. NW WINDS WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT CONTINUE.

AFTER 12Z TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. NW WINDS GUST 20-30 KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE
MORNING...BUT THEN DIMINISH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE N...THEN NE BY TOMORROW.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY THRU FRIDAY...VFR VSBYS LIKELY WITH MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE...HIGHEST PROBABILITY ACROSS RI AND EASTERN MA.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE BUT
CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW.

SUNDAY...IMPROVING TREND WITH VFR LIKELY ALONG WITH INCREASING NW
WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

S WINDS OVER THE WATERS GUSTING IN EXCESS OF GALE FORCE THROUGH
THE EVENING WITH WAVES OF 10 TO 12 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS. RAIN
AND FOG AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL NET VISIBILITY ISSUES OVER THE
WATERS DOWN TO A MILE OR TWO AT TIMES. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTH WATERS.

COLD FRONT SWEEPS THE WATERS AROUND MIDNIGHT BEHIND WHICH WINDS
WILL BACK OUT OF THE WEST REMAINING GUSTY UP TO 40 KTS. CONDITIONS
CLEARING QUICKLY AS WINDS DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. WAVE
ENERGY WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH...SO WHILE GALES CONCLUDE...SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

WED NIGHT THRU FRI...TREND HERE WILL BE DECREASING SOUTHERLY SWELLS
WITH INCREASING ENE WIND WAVES. MAINLY DRY WITH MARITIME AIRMASS
OVER THE WATERS COURTESY OF 1040 MB HIGH ACROSS NEWFOUNDLAND.

FRI NIGHT AND SAT...LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST WITH LOW PRES
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH AND ANOTHER FROM THE GREAT LAKES. DILEMMA
WILL BE HOW MUCH SEPARATION BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS OR IF LOWS WILL
MERGE INTO ONE STRONGER SYSTEM. STILL TOO EARLY TO SAY.

SUNDAY...IMPROVING TRENDS WITH LOW PRES STRENGTHENING WELL EAST OF
NEW ENGLAND FOLLOWED BY A MODEST NW WIND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE WATERS GUSTING 30 TO 40 MPH WILL
YIELD AN AVERAGE 1.5 FOOT SURGE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. COMBINED
WITH HIGH TIDE AROUND 9-10 PM /NOT ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH/...THERE
IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SPLASHOVER ALONG LOW-LYING AREAS. A COASTAL
FLOOD STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED ACCORDINGLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
THREAT AND IMPACTS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ002>021-026.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR MAZ022>024.
NH...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NHZ011-012-015.
RI...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR RIZ001>007.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ230>234-236-250-251.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ235-237-256.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...DOODY/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...STAFF




000
FXUS61 KALY 160534
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
130 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW WILL END OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...UNTREATED ROAD
SURFACES WILL LIKELY TURN TO BLACK ICE. THE SUN WILL RETURN ON
WEDNESDAY WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION. A GRADUAL WARM UP TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WILL OCCUR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 130 AM EDT...ISSUED A SHORT FUSED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
LITCHFIELD COUNTY.

ALREADY HAD A REPORT OF OVER 3 INCHES AND RADARS INDICATED THAT 1-2+
INCHES OF SNOW COULD BE FALLING IN CENTRAL LITCHFIELD COUNTY (DBZ
VALUES OVER 30 WERE COMMON) ALTHOUGH SOME OF THAT COULD BE SLEET.
WILL MONITOR AND SEE IF WE HAVE TO UPGRADE TO A WINTER STORM
WARNING. IT SEEMS TO MOVING SLOWLY TO THE EAST AND SHOULD BE GONE
AFTER 200 AM.

STEADY SNOW PULLING OUT OF SOUTHERN VERMONT AND THE BERKSHIRES. SOME
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WERE STILL SEEN COMING DOWN THE MOHAWK
VALLEY/ADIRONDACKS AND INTO THE GREATER CAPITAL REGION.

LITCHFIELD COUNTY LOOKS TO RECEIVE 2-6 INCHES OF SNOW...POSSIBLY A
FEW HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION HAVE AVERAGED 1-4
INCHES...GENERALLY HIGHEST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATION FROM HERE ON IN SHOULD GENERALLY BE AN INCH OR LESS.

STILL CONCERNED IS THAT WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 20S...AND
MANY ROADS WET OR SLUSHY...UNTREATED ROADWAYS WILL BECOME ICY. WE
HAVE ISSUE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS ADDRESSING THIS CONCERN.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 20S FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY
SOUTH AND EASTWARD...TEENS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. A GUSTY WEST WIND
15 TO 25 MPH WILL MAKE THESE VALUES FEEL ABOUT 10 DEGREES COLDER AT
TIMES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
BREEZY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN...BUT PROSPECTS FOR QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE LOOKS GOOD.
STRONG SUN SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES REACH THE LOWER TO MID
40S...BUT 30S IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS. LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 20S...WITH TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
WARM ADVECTION. THERE SHOULD BE A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY DURING THE DAY
AND MOSTLY CLEAR AT NIGHT...OTHER THAN SOME PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS
FROM TIME TO TIME.

HIGHS THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 50 IN NORTHERN AREAS TO
LOWER TO MID 50S IN MOST OTHER AREAS. HIGHS FRIDAY SHOULD BE IN
THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A PERIOD OF DRY IN BETWEEN FAST-MOVING SYSTEMS MARKS THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.  SHOWERS MOVE IN WITH A COLD FRONT HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND...BEING CONFINED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO SATURDAY TO
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY.  THIS
WILL BE A WEAKER COLD FRONT THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE.  TEMPERATURES
WILL GET DOWN TO FROM AROUND 30 DEGREES IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND
GREENS...TO THE UPPER 30S DOWN THE HUDSON AND MOHAWK VALLEYS.  THIS
WILL RESULT IN A QUICK MIX-OVER OR CHANGEOVER TO SNOW APPROACHING
DAYBREAK SATURDAY AS THE SHOWERS CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST.

EARLY DAY HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S IN THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO AROUND 60 DEGREES IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.  CLOUDS AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL HELP SUPPRESS A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH LOW READINGS FROM THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S SATURDAY
NIGHT...SIMILAR TO FRIDAY NIGHT.  THIS COULD TURN ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...AND NORTH AND WEST OF THE
SARATOGA REGION BACK TO A MIX OR SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE ALL IS ENDED BY
DAYBREAK.

SUNDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 40S IN
THE GREENS AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO AROUND 60 DEGREES DOWN THE
HUDSON VALLEY.  THE DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
MORE OF THE SAME FOR LOW TEMPERATURES.  THE BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING FROM JAMES BAY TO THE GULF COAST SHIFTS EAST...AND A WEAK
LOW BRINGS IN THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT...THOUGH
IT IS EVEN LESS IMPRESSIVE THAN THE ONE BEFORE IT.  THIS WILL LIKELY
BE AN ALL-RAIN EVENT AS TEMPERATURES EVERYWHERE ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING WITH A WARM FRONT EVOLVING AND LIFTING NORTH
TOWARD OUR FORECAST AREA.  HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S AND
LOWER 60S WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOST OF THE SNOW HAS ENDED AT THE TAF SITES WITH MAINLY VFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT
KPSF WHERE SOME SNOW AND IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD LATE FOR ANOTHER HOUR
OR SO.

LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING WEDNESDAY EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME SKC
AND REMAIN SO UNTIL THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 06Z THURSDAY.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE STRONG OVERNIGHT MAINLY FROM THE NORTHWEST
AT 10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS OVER 30 KTS STILL AT KPSF. WINDS WILL LOWER
SOME WEDNESAY MORNING 8-12 KTS FROM THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH. THE
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 00Z THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
COLD AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE SUN WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. A GRADUAL WARM UP TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE.

ALL AREAS RECEIVED A HALF INCH TO OVER AN INCH OF RAIN IN THE LAST
24 HOURS. SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...EASTERN CATSKILLS...SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND
BERKSHIRES TONIGHT.

RH VALUES SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 60 PERCENT AND 90 PERCENT ONCE
PRECIPITATION ENDS TONIGHT...ALONG WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25
MPH AND GUSTS TO 35 MPH.

SUNSHINE RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH A BRISK WEST WIND 10 TO
20 MPH...BUT GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WEDNESDAY SHOULD FALL TO THE 25 TO
35 PERCENT RANGE.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT
WINDS LESS THAN 15 MPH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR THE ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY/LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA
REGION CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TACONICS...SOUTHERN VERMONT AND THE
NORTHERN BERKSHIRES.

WIDESPREAD RAIN OF A HALF INCH TO INCH AND A HALF ALONG WITH SNOW
MELT HAVE PRODUCED SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF IN THE WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED
ALONG SOME RIVER POINTS IN THOSE AREAS AS SOME PLACES COULD REACH
MODERATE FLOOD STAGE...POSSIBLY MAJOR FLOOD STAGE AT RIVERBANK.
ADDITIONAL RUNOFF COULD OCCUR INTO THE WALLOOMSAC AND HOOSIC
RIVERS WITH WATER RISES APPROACHING FLOOD STAGE IN SOUTHERN
VERMONT AND WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS.

AS COLDER AIR POURS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...RAIN WILL TURN TO
SNOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...PRODUCING
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...THE PRECIPITATION
COULD EVEN END AS SNOW SHOWERS WITH A COATING IN PLACES.

THIS COLDER AIR WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING EVERYWHERE
OVERNIGHT...THUS SLOWING DOWN THE RUNOFF. HOWEVER...LARGE STEM
RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND NOT CREST UNTIL WEDNESDAY.

DRY WEATHER IS IN STORE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     CTZ001-013.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...VTK
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS










000
FXUS61 KOKX 160444
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1244 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE OUT TO SEA OVERNIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. THE
HIGH THEN LIFTS UP INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY AND UP INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS ALONG A STALLED FRONT TO THE SOUTH FRIDAY
NIGHT AND PASSES EAST OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE WITH THE
APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH CAPE COD EARLY THIS MORNING AS
HIGH PRESSURE WAS BUILDING OVER THE REGION. RAIN WAS TRANSITIONS
TO LIGHT SNOW BEFORE ENDING AS THE COLD AIR MOVES INTO BEHIND THE
FRONT. AT MIDNIGHT THE SNOW WAS AS FAR EAST AS CENTRAL SOUTHERN
CONNECTICUT...NEAR BDR TO JUST WEST OF ISLIP. AND THE SNOW WAS
ENDING ACROSS WESTERN ORANGE COUNTY AND INTO WESTERN PASSAIC
COUNTY. FORECAST POPS AND PERCIP TYPE ON TRACK. UPDATED WIND AND
TEMPERATURES FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS.

SLOWED THE ENDING OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CWA DUE TO THE
SLOWER TREND INDICATED BY RADAR...SUPPORTING THE SLOWER 18Z NAM
SOLN.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND FREEZING. THUS...
THE FREEZE WARNING HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO ALSO INCLUDE NYC...LONG
ISLAND...AND COASTAL CT. THIS IS IN ADDITION TO MOST OF NE NJ AND
ROCKLAND AND WESTCHESTER COUNTIES IN NEW YORK. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
TRENDING COLDER. BASED ON THE ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIR MASS...USED
MODEL 2M TEMPS FOR LOWS...WHICH WAS SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW MOS
GUIDANCE. LOWS WILL BE CLOSE TO RECORDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ON WED WITH AN
ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIR MASS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER
40S...WHICH IS SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. GUSTY NW WINDS
WILL LINGER INTO THE AFT...MAKING IT FEEL MORE LIKE THE MID AND
UPPER 30S.

WED NIGHT WILL FEATURE ANOTHER POSSIBLE RECORD COLD NIGHT WITH
MOST LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE NYC METRO DROPPING BELOW FREEZING.
ANOTHER FREEZE IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE
REGION WILL BE ON THE WEST SIDE OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY SHIFTS INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES BY FRIDAY. THIS PATTERN SETS UP AN EAST TO
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS. THIS ONSHORE FLOW SERVES TO
KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S
AND LOWER 50S ON THURSDAY AND LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S ON FRIDAY.
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING COULD PROMOTE DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN...MAINLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN ZONES. HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DURING THIS TIME.

THE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES APPROACHES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG A STALLED
FRONT OFFSHORE. MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE KEEPS THE LOW FAR ENOUGH
OFFSHORE TO PREVENT A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT. THE MODELS DIFFER ON
THE AMPLITUDE...TIMING...AND PLACEMENT OF THE VORTICITY MAXIMA
WITHIN THE UPPER TROUGH HOWEVER. AT THE VERY LEAST...SATURDAY WILL
BE MOSTLY CLOUDY AND HAVE CONTINUED A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE. DUE TO CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION...TEMPERATURES CONTINUE BELOW NORMAL IN THE 50S.

A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW SETS UP ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUES INTO MONDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN DURING THIS TIME WITH DRY
CONDITIONS. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON
SUNDAY AND THEN WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL ON MONDAY.

A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH ON TUESDAY
BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. HIGH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AT THIS
TIME SO HAVE ONLY INCLUDED CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
NEAR NORMAL IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.

CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE FROM MVFR VARIABLE IFR TO VFR INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SHOULD SEE -SHRA TRANSITION OVER TO AT LEAST
A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT ALL TERMINALS...AND OVER TO ALL -SN AT KSWF AND
POSSIBLY KHPN BEFORE ENDING. POTENTIAL FOR 1-3 INCH ACCUMULATION
KSWF...AND LESS THAN 1 INCH KHPN. LOW PROBABILITY OF A COATING OF
SLUSH ELSEWHERE.

WINDS NW G20-30KT THROUGH THE NIGHT. COULD SEE ISOLATED 35-40KT
GUSTS OVERNIGHT. WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY AS WINDS VEER TO THE NNW. WIND GUSTS SHOULD ABATE BY
LATE AFTERNOON AS THE WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE N.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...VFR. E WIND G AROUND 20KT POSSIBLE.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRI NIGHT...VFR.
.SATURDAY...PSBL MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW CHANCE OF -SHRA. W-NW
WIND G25-30KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...VFR

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS HAVE BEGUN TO SUBSIDE IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW AND HAVE BEEN RUNNING A FOOT TO 2 FEET BELOW FORECAST
VALUES...SO LOWERED SEAS THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS FOR NW FLOW UP TO 35 KT
OVERNIGHT.

MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE THEN POSSIBLE ON WED...MAINLY WITH
LINGERING 5 FT SEAS.

SCA WINDS AND SEAS LIKELY ON THURSDAY AS EASTERLY FLOW INCREASES.
WINDS WILL TREND BELOW SCA LEVELS FRIDAY BUT SEAS ON OFFSHORE WATERS
SHOULD STAY ABOVE SCA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
RELAX ON SATURDAY AS REGION WEAKER FLOW SETS UP OVER THE WATERS.
SEAS AND WINDS COULD RETURN TO SCA LEVELS ON SUNDAY WITH INCREASED
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL HAS ENDED ACROSS THE REGION. IN GENERAL...UP
TO 3/4 OF AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH
THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS E OF NYC.

NOTE...MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER.
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY CAUSE WATER LEVELS TO CONTINUE
TO RISE THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE FLOOD LEVELS
TO BE REACHED. MONITOR THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS FROM NWS TAUNTON MA.

NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS FOR WEDNESDAY APRIL 16:

EWR - 26 IN 1943  FORECAST LOW - 29
BDR - 29 IN 1981  FORECAST LOW - 29
NYC - 29 IN 1928  FORECAST LOW - 29
LGA - 31 IN 1943  FORECAST LOW - 29
JFK - 33 IN 1962  FORECAST LOW - 30
ISP - 32 IN 2008  FORECAST LOW - 30

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CTZ009>012.
NY...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ069>075-
     078>081-176>179.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ004-006-
     103>108.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KALY 160346
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1145 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW WILL END OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...UNTREATED ROAD
SURFACES WILL LIKELY TURN TO BLACK ICE. THE SUN WILL RETURN ON
WEDNESDAY WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION. A GRADUAL WARM UP TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WILL OCCUR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1145 PM EDT...SNOW WAS ENDING QUICKLY ACROSS THE MOHAWK
VALLEY. WE HAVE HAD REPORTS OF 1-2 INCHES ACROSS THE GREATER CAPITAL
REGION...WITH PRESUMABLY SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE
HILLTOWNS AND ESPECIALLY ADIRONDACKS.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WAS FALLING ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WHICH COULD
LINGER WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITH AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO.

SO ANYWHERE FROM A COATING TO 2 INCHES IN THE VALLEYS...2 TO 5
INCHES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY ADIRONDACKS.

OUR BIG CONCERN IS THAT WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 20S...AND
MANY ROADS WET OR SLUSHY...UNTREATED ROADWAYS WILL BECOME ICY. WE
HAVE ISSUE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS ADDRESSING THIS CONCERN.

SO FOR THIS UPDATE...JUST UPDATED THE TRENDS AND SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED
SOME ACCUMULATIONS. DID LOWER OVERNIGHT LOWS A COUPLE OF DEGREES
BASED ON THE FACT THAT WE WERE COUPLE DEGREES COLDER THAN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BREEZY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN...BUT PROSPECTS FOR QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE LOOKS GOOD.
STRONG SUN SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES REACH THE LOWER TO MID
40S...BUT 30S IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS. LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 20S...WITH TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
WARM ADVECTION. THERE SHOULD BE A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY DURING THE DAY
AND MOSTLY CLEAR AT NIGHT...OTHER THAN SOME PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS
FROM TIME TO TIME.

HIGHS THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 50 IN NORTHERN AREAS TO
LOWER TO MID 50S IN MOST OTHER AREAS. HIGHS FRIDAY SHOULD BE IN
THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A PERIOD OF DRY IN BETWEEN FAST-MOVING SYSTEMS MARKS THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.  SHOWERS MOVE IN WITH A COLD FRONT HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND...BEING CONFINED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO SATURDAY TO
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY.  THIS
WILL BE A WEAKER COLD FRONT THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE.  TEMPERATURES
WILL GET DOWN TO FROM AROUND 30 DEGREES IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND
GREENS...TO THE UPPER 30S DOWN THE HUDSON AND MOHAWK VALLEYS.  THIS
WILL RESULT IN A QUICK MIX-OVER OR CHANGEOVER TO SNOW APPROACHING
DAYBREAK SATURDAY AS THE SHOWERS CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST.

EARLY DAY HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S IN THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO AROUND 60 DEGREES IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.  CLOUDS AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL HELP SUPPRESS A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH LOW READINGS FROM THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S SATURDAY
NIGHT...SIMILAR TO FRIDAY NIGHT.  THIS COULD TURN ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...AND NORTH AND WEST OF THE
SARATOGA REGION BACK TO A MIX OR SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE ALL IS ENDED BY
DAYBREAK.

SUNDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 40S IN
THE GREENS AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO AROUND 60 DEGREES DOWN THE
HUDSON VALLEY.  THE DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
MORE OF THE SAME FOR LOW TEMPERATURES.  THE BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING FROM JAMES BAY TO THE GULF COAST SHIFTS EAST...AND A WEAK
LOW BRINGS IN THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT...THOUGH
IT IS EVEN LESS IMPRESSIVE THAN THE ONE BEFORE IT.  THIS WILL LIKELY
BE AN ALL-RAIN EVENT AS TEMPERATURES EVERYWHERE ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING WITH A WARM FRONT EVOLVING AND LIFTING NORTH
TOWARD OUR FORECAST AREA.  HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S AND
LOWER 60S WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE WEST
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE SUSTAINED
15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 TO 30 KTS THROUGH 09Z. COLD AIR IS
CAUSING PTYPE CHANGES FROM RA TO PL AND SN. ANY PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE OUT OF THE REGION AFTER 06-08Z.  EXPECT MAINLY MVFR
WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR FROM 00Z UNTIL 06Z.

CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL RETURN TO VFR AFTER 06Z - 08Z. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
COLD AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE SUN WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. A GRADUAL WARM UP TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE.

ALL AREAS RECEIVED A HALF INCH TO OVER AN INCH OF RAIN IN THE LAST
24 HOURS. SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...EASTERN CATSKILLS...SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND
BERKSHIRES TONIGHT.

RH VALUES SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 60 PERCENT AND 90 PERCENT ONCE
PRECIPITATION ENDS TONIGHT...ALONG WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25
MPH AND GUSTS TO 35 MPH.

SUNSHINE RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH A BRISK WEST WIND 10 TO
20 MPH...BUT GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WEDNESDAY SHOULD FALL TO THE 25 TO
35 PERCENT RANGE.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT
WINDS LESS THAN 15 MPH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR THE ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY/LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA
REGION CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TACONICS...SOUTHERN VERMONT AND THE
NORTHERN BERKSHIRES.

WIDESPREAD RAIN OF A HALF INCH TO INCH AND A HALF ALONG WITH SNOW
MELT HAVE PRODUCED SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF IN THE WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED
ALONG SOME RIVER POINTS IN THOSE AREAS AS SOME PLACES COULD REACH
MODERATE FLOOD STAGE...POSSIBLY MAJOR FLOOD STAGE AT RIVERBANK.
ADDITIONAL RUNOFF COULD OCCUR INTO THE WALLOOMSAC AND HOOSIC
RIVERS WITH WATER RISES APPROACHING FLOOD STAGE IN SOUTHERN
VERMONT AND WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS.

AS COLDER AIR POURS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...RAIN WILL TURN TO
SNOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...PRODUCING
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...THE PRECIPITATION
COULD EVEN END AS SNOW SHOWERS WITH A COATING IN PLACES.

THIS COLDER AIR WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING EVERYWHERE
OVERNIGHT...THUS SLOWING DOWN THE RUNOFF. HOWEVER...LARGE STEM
RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND NOT CREST UNTIL WEDNESDAY.

DRY WEATHER IS IN STORE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/NAS
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/VTK/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...VTK
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS










000
FXUS61 KOKX 160239
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1039 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE OUT TO SEA OVERNIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. THE
HIGH THEN LIFTS UP INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY AND UP INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS ALONG A STALLED FRONT TO THE SOUTH FRIDAY
NIGHT AND PASSES EAST OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE WITH THE
APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THE COLD FRONT PASSED BLOCK ISLAND AT 935 PM...AND WILL CONTINUE
TO TRACK EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE CWA OVERNIGHT.

SWITCHING INTO WINTER WEATHER MODE WITH CHANGEOVER ONGOING ACROSS
ORANGE AND WESTERN PASSAIC COUNTIES. COOP REPORTED A CHANGE TO ALL
SNOW WITH A COATING AT W MILFORD NJ...WITH OTHER REPORTS OF SLEET
AND SNOW INTO MUCH OF NJ AND THE HUDSON VALLEY W OF THE RIVER.

RADAR INDICATES ADDITIONAL MDT TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION FROM THE DC
AREA NORTHWARD INTO NJ. AS A RESULT...UPPED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
ACROSS THE W. THIS LOOKS TO BE AN ELEVATION FAVORED EVENT...WITH
THE HIGHEST SPOTS POSSIBLY GETTING AROUND 3 INCHES...AND THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS PERHAPS LESS THAN AN INCH. A GENERAL 1-3 INCHES FOR
ORANGE AND WESTERN PASSAIC WITH LESSER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE WITH THE
UPDATE.

BECAUSE 3 INCH AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ISOLD AND CONFINED TO
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AT THIS TIME...NO ADVISORY ISSUED.

SLOWED THE ENDING OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CWA DUE TO THE
SLOWER TREND INDICATED BY RADAR...SUPPORTING THE SLOWER 18Z NAM
SOLN.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND FREEZING. THUS...
THE FREEZE WARNING HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO ALSO INCLUDE NYC...LONG
ISLAND...AND COASTAL CT. THIS IS IN ADDITION TO MOST OF NE NJ AND
ROCKLAND AND WESTCHESTER COUNTIES IN NEW YORK. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
TRENDING COLDER. BASED ON THE ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIR MASS...USED
MODEL 2M TEMPS FOR LOWS...WHICH WAS SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW MOS
GUIDANCE. LOWS WILL BE CLOSE TO RECORDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ON WED WITH AN
ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIR MASS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER
40S...WHICH IS SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. GUSTY NW WINDS
WILL LINGER INTO THE AFT...MAKING IT FEEL MORE LIKE THE MID AND
UPPER 30S.

WED NIGHT WILL FEATURE ANOTHER POSSIBLE RECORD COLD NIGHT WITH
MOST LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE NYC METRO DROPPING BELOW FREEZING.
ANOTHER FREEZE IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE
REGION WILL BE ON THE WEST SIDE OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY SHIFTS INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES BY FRIDAY. THIS PATTERN SETS UP AN EAST TO
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS. THIS ONSHORE FLOW SERVES TO
KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S
AND LOWER 50S ON THURSDAY AND LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S ON FRIDAY.
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING COULD PROMOTE DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN...MAINLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN ZONES. HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DURING THIS TIME.

THE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES APPROACHES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG A STALLED
FRONT OFFSHORE. MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE KEEPS THE LOW FAR ENOUGH
OFFSHORE TO PREVENT A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT. THE MODELS DIFFER ON
THE AMPLITUDE...TIMING...AND PLACEMENT OF THE VORTICITY MAXIMA
WITHIN THE UPPER TROUGH HOWEVER. AT THE VERY LEAST...SATURDAY WILL
BE MOSTLY CLOUDY AND HAVE CONTINUED A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE. DUE TO CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION...TEMPERATURES CONTINUE BELOW NORMAL IN THE 50S.

A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW SETS UP ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUES INTO MONDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN DURING THIS TIME WITH DRY
CONDITIONS. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON
SUNDAY AND THEN WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL ON MONDAY.

A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH ON TUESDAY
BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. HIGH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AT THIS
TIME SO HAVE ONLY INCLUDED CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
NEAR NORMAL IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.

CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE FROM MVFR VARIABLE IFR TO VFR INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SHOULD SEE -SHRA TRANSITION OVER TO AT LEAST
A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT ALL TERMINALS...AND OVER TO ALL -SN AT KSWF AND
POSSIBLY KHPN BEFORE ENDING. POTENTIAL FOR 1-3 INCH ACCUMULATION
KSWF...AND LESS THAN 1 INCH KHPN. LOW PROBABILITY OF A COATING OF
SLUSH ELSEWHERE.

WINDS NW G20-30KT THROUGH THE NIGHT. COULD SEE ISOLATED 35-40KT
GUSTS OVERNIGHT. WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY AS WINDS VEER TO THE NNW. WIND GUSTS SHOULD ABATE BY
LATE AFTERNOON AS THE WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE N.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...VFR. E WIND G AROUND 20KT POSSIBLE.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRI NIGHT...VFR.
.SATURDAY...PSBL MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW CHANCE OF -SHRA. W-NW
WIND G25-30KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...VFR

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS FOR NW FLOW UP TO 35 KT
OVERNIGHT.

MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE THEN POSSIBLE ON WED...MAINLY WITH
LINGERING 5 FT SEAS.

SCA WINDS AND SEAS LIKELY ON THURSDAY AS EASTERLY FLOW INCREASES.
WINDS WILL TREND BELOW SCA LEVELS FRIDAY BUT SEAS ON OFFSHORE WATERS
SHOULD STAY ABOVE SCA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
RELAX ON SATURDAY AS REGION WEAKER FLOW SETS UP OVER THE WATERS.
SEAS AND WINDS COULD RETURN TO SCA LEVELS ON SUNDAY WITH INCREASED
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL HAS ENDED ACROSS THE REGION. IN GENERAL...UP
TO 3/4 OF AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH
THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS E OF NYC.

NOTE...MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER.
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY CAUSE WATER LEVELS TO CONTINUE
TO RISE THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE FLOOD LEVELS
TO BE REACHED. MONITOR THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS FROM NWS TAUNTON MA.

NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS FOR WEDNESDAY APRIL 16:

EWR - 26 IN 1943  FORECAST LOW - 29
BDR - 29 IN 1981  FORECAST LOW - 29
NYC - 29 IN 1928  FORECAST LOW - 29
LGA - 31 IN 1943  FORECAST LOW - 29
JFK - 33 IN 1962  FORECAST LOW - 30
ISP - 32 IN 2008  FORECAST LOW - 30

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ009>012.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ069>075-
     078>081-176>179.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ004-006-
     103>108.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-
     345-350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JMC/DW/DS
NEAR TERM...JMC/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...JMC/DW/DS
HYDROLOGY...DW/DS
CLIMATE...LN





000
FXUS61 KBOX 160206
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1006 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHARP COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT WILL BRING A
MIX OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY RAIN...AND EVEN A BRIEF CHANGE
TO A WINTRY MIX BEFORE ENDING EARLY ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
IMMEDIATE FOLLOWING BRINGING DRY BUT UNSEASONABLE CONDITIONS FOR
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THURSDAY INTO
THE FIRST PART OF FRIDAY WITH MODERATING AFTERNOON TEMPS INLAND...
BUT REMAINING CHILLY ALONG THE COAST. LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING A
ROUND OR TWO OF RAIN SHOWERS SOMETIME FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
THEN DRY AND COOLER SUNDAY/MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...
A COMBINATION OF BOTH LOCAL OBS AND WSR-88D VELOCITY PRODUCTS
SUGGEST COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY DRAPED FROM NEAR WESTERLY RI TO
NEWBURYPORT MA. THE FRONT HAS SLOWED A BIT OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS
AS SECONDARY MID LVL WAVE MOVES NE FROM ARUO0ND THE
DELMARVA...MANIFESTING ITSELF AS ANOTHER AREA OF MOD RAIN. THIS
BAND OF RAIN IS MORE CLOSELY ASSOCIATED WITH A MORE BROAD AREA OF
QG FORCING WITH MID LVL WAVE...AND IS LIKELY TO GRADUALLY LOSE A
BIT OF ITS OVERALL PRECIP-PRODUCING ABILITY AS THE THE COLD FRONT
OUTPACES IT...DRAWING IN DRIER/COLDER AIR. SO...IN ESSENCE...WHILE
PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF SRN NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...IT SHOULD GRADUALLY DECLINE BOTH
IN INTENSITY AND SPATIALLY.

IN REGARD TO P-TYPE...COLD AIR DAMMING SIGNATURE APPARENT ACROSS
WRN MA/CT IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ALTHOUGH MUCH COLDER AIR IS
MOVING IN RAPIDLY AND SEVERAL AREAS ARE REPORTING SNOW/SLEET IN
BERKSHIRE AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES...IT HAS TAKEN MUCH MORE TIME
DRAINING INTO THE CT VALLEY. THEREFORE...EXPECT IT TO TAKE A BIT
BEFORE IT BEGINS TO ACTUALLY SPILL OVER INTO THE REST OF
CT/MA/NH...UNTIL THE COLD LAYER BECOMES DEEP ENOUGH. SO...STILL
EXPECT A CHANGE ALMOST EVERYWHERE AS PRECIP COMES TO AN END...BUT
THIS MAY LIMIT THE ABILITY ACCUM OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN FOR
A WHILE. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR AN SPS DUE TO FLASH FREEZING OF
WATER ON AREA ROADWAYS ESPECIALLY IF SOME SLEET/SNOW ACCUMS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

COLD FRONT NOW PUSHING INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. WIDESPREAD RAIN
WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS LENDING TO NUMEROUS OBSERVATIONS OF
SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WITH ISOLATED GUSTS UP
TO AROUND 50 MPH. THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE RAIN IS LENDING TO
A QUARTER- TO HALF-INCH PER HOUR RAINFALL AMOUNTS...NOT SO MUCH AN
ISSUE TOWARDS FLASH FLOODING...BUT ENOUGH OVER THE COURSE OF TODAY
INTO THIS EVENING TO LEND TO RIVER AND URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.

THREATS AND ASSOCIATED IMPACTS ARE OUTLINED BELOW:

HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING...

FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR MULTIPLE POINTS ALONG THE
CONNECTICUT RIVER BASIN WITH THE EXPECTATION OF MINOR RIVER
FLOODING...PERHAPS MODERATE FLOODING AT MIDDLE HADDAM.

SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH ASSOCIATED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN
EXCESS OF 1.5-INCHES SURGING NORTH WITH THE AMPLIFYING LOW-LEVEL
FLOW /70-80 KTS PRESENTLY PER WSR-88D VERTICAL WIND PROFILERS/ IS
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH ON THE ORDER OF 3-4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL.

CONVERGENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND ALONG THE NOSE OF THE LOW-
LEVEL-JET...MOISTURE IS UNDERGOING BOTH FRONTOGENETICAL LIFT AND
STRONG DEEP-LAYER ASCENT BENEATH AN AREA OF STRONG UPPER-LEVEL
DIVERGENCE PER RRQ. THIS IS LENDING TO WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS AND EVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS /ESPECIALLY IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT OVER
NJ INTO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY TOWARDS THE BERKSHIRES/.

WHILE RAINFALL RATES HAVE BEEN ANYWHERE FROM A QUARTER TO HALF-
AN-INCH PER HOUR...THE CUMULATIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE AROUND 2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS AROUND 3 INCHES IN
A TIME-FRAME ROUGHLY AROUND 6-HOURS. THUS THE FLOOD WATCH
CONTINUES.

THE BASIS FOR THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES TO BE A FOCUS UPON ALREADY
SWOLLEN RIVERS FROM UPSTREAM SNOWMELT TAKING ON ADDITIONAL WATER
GOING INTO MINOR FLOODING...POSSIBLY INTO MODERATE FLOOD FOR THE
CONNECTICUT RIVER AT MIDDLE HADDAM.

RIVER BASINS OF CONCERN INCLUDE CONNECTICUT/MERRIMACK/PAWCATUCK.
ALSO ANTICIPATE IMPACTS TO LOCAL STREAMS/CREEKS/TRIBUTARIES...
ESPECIALLY THOSE THAT ARE NARROWER AND FLASHIER. THOSE WITH
INTERESTS ALONG AREA RIVERS SHOULD PAY ATTENTION TO THE LATEST
FORECASTS AND CURRENT WATER LEVELS.

THE FLOOD WATCH ALSO INCLUDES URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE ISSUES FOR
THE DRIVE-HOME COMMUTE PRESENTLY ONGOING FOR ALL ROADWAYS ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. PONDING OF WATER THE BIGGEST CONCERN.

PLEASE SEE THE COASTAL FLOODING SECTION BELOW FOR COASTAL FLOOD
THREATS.

WINDS...

SEVERAL LOCATIONS ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN NEW ENGLAND OBSERVING
WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS /46 MPH/. WSR-88D VERTICAL WIND
PROFILERS SHOWING WINDS AT H925 AMPLIFYING TO 70 KTS. INCREASING
AREAL COVERAGE OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS AIDING IN THE
PRECIP-DRAG / MECHANICAL MIXING OF FASTER MOMENTUM ALOFT DOWN TO
THE SURFACE. SHOULD SEE THESE WINDS CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. WIND ADVISORIES CONTINUE ACCORDINGLY.

THOSE TRAVELING OVER BRIDGES /THINKING THE SAGAMORE AND BOURNE/
SHOULD BE AWARE OF FIERCE CROSSWINDS. GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE. ALREADY RECEIVING NUMEROUS REPORTS OF TREES AND
WIRES DOWN...BLOWN TRANSFORMERS AND POWER OUTAGES. THESE IMPACTS
AND THREATS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION.

WINTRY MIX/FLASH FREEZE POTENTIAL...

TEMPERATURES QUICKLY FALLING IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS
WINDS BACK OUT OF THE WEST. ALREADY TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S ARE
ENCROACHING INTO THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY REGION. EXPECTING THIS
COLD AIR TO SURGE INTO THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...
MAINLY AROUND AND AFTER MIDNIGHT.

CONSIDERING THE STRONG DYNAMICS AND LIFT TO THE REAR OF THE COLD
FRONT...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING PRECIPITATION WITHIN
THE SHALLOW COLD-AIR MASS IN THE FORM OF A WINTRY MIX.

THUS A BRIEF CHANGEOVER TO A SNOW/SLEET MIX IS POSSIBLE...MAINLY
ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
THE ROUTE-2 CORRIDOR INCORPORATING NORTHERN MASSACHUSETTS AND
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. LIKELY TO SEE AN INCREASE IN LIKELIHOOD
ALONG WESTERN SLOPES OF HIGHER TERRAIN. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIGHT AROUND A TRACE TO PERHAPS A TENTH OR TWO...ENOUGH TO MAKE
FOR SLIPPERY CONDITIONS.

DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REAR OF THE STORM RESULTING IN THE
BACK EDGE OF PRECIP TO DISSIPATE. THIS DRIER AIR CAN BE SEEN
WITHIN THE MID-LEVELS PER WATER-VAPOR IMAGERY...BUT SHOULD ALSO
SEE THIS DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE. THUS IT IS A QUESTION AS TO
WHETHER WET SURFACES WILL FREEZE AHEAD OF EVAPORATING. EITHER
WHICH WAY...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR BLACK-ICE AND SLIPPERY
CONDITIONS THAT MAY EXIST FOR THE WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...

AN UNSEASONABLY CHILLY AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO WORK INTO THE REGION
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. ANY LEFT OVER PRECIP
SHOULD EXIT THE CAPE/ISLANDS BY MID-MORNING AT THE LATEST AS THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE.

WESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH DURING THE
MORNING...BUT WILL DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS AIDED BY
ANOMALOUSLY COLD H85 TEMPS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BETWEEN -6C AND
-10C ALLOWING FOR EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING.

THOUGH WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES...PLENTY OF STRONG APRIL
SUNSHINE WILL OFFSET COLDER AIR ALOFT TO SOME DEGREE. ALL IN
ALL...MUCH OF THE REGION SHOULD SEE HIGHS RECOVER WELL INTO THE
40S DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY BUT UNSEASONABLY CHILLY WED NIGHT
* DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO FRI AND BECOMING MILDER INLAND
* A PERIOD OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT BUT LOW CONFIDENCE

AN ACTIVE AND SURPRISED NORTHERN STREAM JET THIS PERIOD WILL
RESULT IN TEMPERATURES AT OR COOLER THAN NORMAL ALONG WITH A FEW
CHANCES OF SHOWERS. VERY TYPICAL PATTERN FOR MID APRIL.

DAILY DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

CHILLY AIRMASS OVER THE REGION ALONG WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WINDS. THIS WILL RESULT IN COLD TEMPS OUTSIDE OF THE
URBAN AREAS WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE 20S!

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...

STRONG /1044 MB!/ HIGH PRESSURE ADVECTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
THIS WILL EVOLVE INTO A COOL MARITIME AIRMASS FOR SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WITH LARGE TEMP DIFFERENCES FROM THE COAST TO INLAND. ACROSS
EASTERN MA THE VERY CHILLY OCEAN WATERS WITH SSTS IN THE L40S WILL
ACT LIKE A SNOWCOVER AND ENHANCE THIS COOL MARITIME AIRMASS. CHILLY
ONSHORE WINDS WILL ADVECT THIS VERY COOL AND SHALLOW MARITIME
AIRMASS INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN. THEREFORE ONLY EXPECTING HIGHS IN
THE 40S OVER EASTERN MA...MEANWHILE STRONG APRIL SUN HEATS UP THE
INTERIOR INTO THE 50S. AIRMASS CONTINUES TO MODIFY FRI WITH HIGHS 45-
50 EASTERN MA AND 55-60 WELL INLAND.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...

MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE ON AMPLITUDE AND INTERACTION OF NORTHERN
AND SOUTHERN STREAM WAVES. 12Z GFS REMAINS MORE ROBUST AND PHASING
THAN THE 12Z ECMWF. THUS THE GFS IS THE WETTER SOLUTION OF THE TWO.
ENSEMBLES INDICATE MORE STREAM SEPARATION AND ARE SLOWER PHASING THE
STREAMS BUT THIS IS SOMEWHAT TYPICAL GIVEN THE LOWER RESOLUTION OF
THE ENSEMBLES.

TEMPS LIKELY REMAIN NEAR NORMAL...HIGHS IN THE 50S.

SUNDAY/MONDAY/TUESDAY...

AS EXPECTED LOTS OF TIMING ISSUES HERE GIVEN THE FAST FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN STATES. GIVEN THIS FLOW REGIME AND TIME RANGE HERE WILL
FOLLOW A MODEL BLEND WHICH YIELDS TEMPS NEAR NORMAL AND A RISK OF
SHOWERS IN THE MON NIGHT/TUE TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

7 PM UPDATE...

NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS TAFS. COLD FRONT INTO CT RVR VLY AT
7 PM AND CONTINUING TO MAKE STEADY EASTWARD PROGRESS. EARLIER
DISCUSSION BELOW.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH +RA CONTINUING THROUGH THE EVENING.
STRONG S WINDS CONTINUING WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS WITH A
FEW LOCATIONS UP TO AROUND 50 KTS /ESPECIALLY FOR E-S MA AND RI/.
LLWS IMPACTS OVER ALL TERMINALS WITH 60-70 KT 2 KFT AGL.

COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE TERMINALS AROUND MIDNIGHT. WILL SEE
WINDS BACK WEST REMAINING GUSTY UP TO 40 KTS. CONDITIONS QUICKLY
IMPROVING TO VFR. MAY SEE RAIN TRANSITION TO SNOW/SLEET BRIEFLY
WITH MINOR ACCUMS. BEST CHANCES OVER NW MA INTO S NH. PRECIP
COMING TO AN END AS WINDS DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY...VFR VSBYS LIKELY WITH MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE...HIGHEST PROBABILITY ACROSS RI AND EASTERN MA.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE BUT
CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW.

SUNDAY...IMPROVING TREND WITH VFR LIKELY ALONG WITH INCREASING NW
WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

S WINDS OVER THE WATERS GUSTING IN EXCESS OF GALE FORCE THROUGH
THE EVENING WITH WAVES OF 10 TO 12 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS. RAIN
AND FOG AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL NET VISIBILITY ISSUES OVER THE
WATERS DOWN TO A MILE OR TWO AT TIMES. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTH WATERS.

COLD FRONT SWEEPS THE WATERS AROUND MIDNIGHT BEHIND WHICH WINDS
WILL BACK OUT OF THE WEST REMAINING GUSTY UP TO 40 KTS. CONDITIONS
CLEARING QUICKLY AS WINDS DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. WAVE
ENERGY WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH...SO WHILE GALES CONCLUDE...SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

WED NIGHT THRU FRI...TREND HERE WILL BE DECREASING SOUTHERLY SWELLS
WITH INCREASING ENE WIND WAVES. MAINLY DRY WITH MARITIME AIRMASS
OVER THE WATERS COURTESY OF 1040 MB HIGH ACROSS NEWFOUNDLAND.

FRI NIGHT AND SAT...LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST WITH LOW PRES
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH AND ANOTHER FROM THE GREAT LAKES. DILEMMA
WILL BE HOW MUCH SEPARATION BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS OR IF LOWS WILL
MERGE INTO ONE STRONGER SYSTEM. STILL TOO EARLY TO SAY.

SUNDAY...IMPROVING TRENDS WITH LOW PRES STRENGTHENING WELL EAST OF
NEW ENGLAND FOLLOWED BY A MODEST NW WIND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE WATERS GUSTING 30 TO 40 MPH WILL
YIELD AN AVERAGE 1.5 FOOT SURGE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. COMBINED
WITH HIGH TIDE AROUND 9-10 PM /NOT ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH/...THERE
IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SPLASHOVER ALONG LOW-LYING AREAS. A COASTAL
FLOOD STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED ACCORDINGLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
THREAT AND IMPACTS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ002>021-026.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MAZ004>007-
     012>024-026.
NH...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ011-012-015.
RI...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR RIZ001>007.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR RIZ001>008.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ230>234-236-250-
     251.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-256.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...DOODY/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
MARINE...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KOKX 160159
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
959 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE OUT TO SEA OVERNIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. THE
HIGH THEN LIFTS UP INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY AND UP INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS ALONG A STALLED FRONT TO THE SOUTH FRIDAY
NIGHT AND PASSES EAST OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE WITH THE
APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THE COLD FRONT PASSED BLOCK ISLAND AT 935 PM...AND WILL CONTINUE
TO TRACK EWD AWAY FROM THE CWA OVERNIGHT.

SWITCHING INTO WINTER WEATHER MODE WITH CHANGEOVER ONGOING ACROSS
ORANGE AND WRN PASSAIC COUNTIES. COOP REPORTED A CHANGE TO ALL
SNOW WITH A COATING AT W MILFORD NJ...WITH OTHER REPORTS OF SLEET
AND SNOW INTO MUCH OF NJ AND THE HUDSON VALLEY W OF THE RIVER.

RADAR INDICATES ADDITIONAL MDT TO HVY PCPN FROM THE DC AREA NWD
INTO NJ. AS A RESULT...UPPED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE W. THIS
LOOKS TO BE AN ELEVATION FAVORED EVENT...WITH THE HIGHEST SPOTS
POSSIBLY GETTING AROUND 3 INCHES...AND THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
PERHAPS LESS THAN AN INCH. A GENERAL 1-3 INCHES FOR ORANGE AND WRN
PASSAIC WITH LESSER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE WITH THE UPDATE.

BECAUSE 3 INCH AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ISOLD AND CONFINED TO
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ATTM...NO ADVY ISSUED.

SLOWED THE ENDING OF PCPN ACROSS THE CWA DUE TO THE SLOWER TREND
INDICATED BY RADAR...SUPPORTING THE SLOWER 18Z NAM SOLN.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND FREEZING. THUS...
THE FREEZE WARNING HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO ALSO INCLUDE NYC...LONG
ISLAND...AND COASTAL CT. THIS IS IN ADDITION TO MOST OF NE NJ AND
ROCKLAND AND WESTCHESTER COUNTIES IN NEW YORK. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
TRENDING COLDER. BASED ON THE ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIR MASS...USED MODEL
2M TEMPS FOR LOWS...WHICH WAS SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW MOS GUIDANCE.
LOWS WILL BE CLOSE TO RECORDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ON WED WITH AN
ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIR MASS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER
40S...WHICH IS SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. GUSTY NW WINDS
WILL LINGER INTO THE AFT...MAKING IT FEEL MORE LIKE THE MID AND
UPPER 30S.

WED NIGHT WILL FEATURE ANOTHER POSSIBLE RECORD COLD NIGHT WITH
MOST LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE NYC METRO DROPPING BELOW FREEZING.
ANOTHER FREEZE IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE
REGION WILL BE ON THE WEST SIDE OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY SHIFTS INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES BY FRIDAY. THIS PATTERN SETS UP AN EAST TO
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS. THIS ONSHORE FLOW SERVES TO
KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S
AND LOWER 50S ON THURSDAY AND LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S ON FRIDAY.
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING COULD PROMOTE DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
ZONES. HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DURING THIS TIME.

THE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES APPROACHES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG A STALLED
FRONT OFFSHORE. MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE KEEPS THE LOW FAR ENOUGH
OFFSHORE TO PREVENT A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT. THE MODELS DIFFER ON
THE AMPLITUDE...TIMING...AND PLACEMENT OF THE VORTICITY MAXIMA WITHIN
THE UPPER TROUGH HOWEVER. AT THE VERY LEAST...SATURDAY WILL BE
MOSTLY CLOUDY AND HAVE CONTINUED A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE. DUE TO CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION...TEMPERATURES CONTINUE BELOW NORMAL IN THE 50S.

A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW SETS UP ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUES INTO MONDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN DURING THIS TIME WITH DRY
CONDITIONS. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON
SUNDAY AND THEN WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL ON MONDAY.

A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH ON TUESDAY
BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. HIGH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AT THIS TIME
SO HAVE ONLY INCLUDED CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR
NORMAL IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT EXITS TO THE EAST EARLY THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.

CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE FROM MVFR VARIABLE IFR TO VFR INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SHOULD SEE -SHRA TRANSITION OVER TO AT LEAST
A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT ALL TERMINALS...AND OVER TO ALL -SN AT KSWF AND
KHPN BEFORE ENDING. POTENTIAL FOR 1-2 INCH ACCUMULATION KSWF...AND
LESS THAN 1 INCH KHPN. LOW PROBABILITY OF A COATING OF SLUSH
ELSEWHERE.

LLWS LINGERS AT KGON UNTIL COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WHICH SHOULD
BE RIGHT AROUND 1Z. BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS OUT THE NW G20-30KT
THROUGH THE NIGHT. COULD SEE ISOLATED 35-40KT GUSTS OVERNIGHT. WINDS
GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS WINDS VEER TO
THE NNW. WIND GUSTS SHOULD ABATE BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THE
WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE N.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING ON CHANGES IN CEILING/VISIBILITY/WIND
SPEED-DIRECTION-GUST SPEED...AND ONSET OF RAIN-SNOW MIX...ALL
COULD BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING ON CHANGES IN CEILING/VISIBILITY/WIND
SPEED-DIRECTION-GUST SPEED...AND ONSET OF RAIN-SNOW MIX...ALL
COULD BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING ON CHANGES IN CEILING/VISIBILITY/WIND
SPEED-DIRECTION-GUST SPEED...AND ONSET OF RAIN-SNOW MIX...ALL
COULD BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING ON CHANGES IN CEILING/VISIBILITY/WIND
SPEED-DIRECTION-GUST SPEED...AND ONSET OF RAIN-SNOW MIX...ALL
COULD BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING ON CHANGES IN CEILING/VISIBILITY/WIND
SPEED-DIRECTION-GUST SPEED...AND ONSET OF RAIN-SNOW MIX THEN
CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW...ALL COULD BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING ON CHANGES IN CEILING/VISIBILITY/WIND
SPEED-DIRECTION-GUST SPEED...AND ONSET OF RAIN-SNOW MIX...ALL
COULD BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...VFR. E WIND G AROUND 20KT POSSIBLE.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRI NIGHT...VFR.
.SATURDAY...PSBL MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW CHANCE OF -SHRA. W-NW
WIND G25-30KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...VFR

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS FOR NW FLOW UP TO 35 KT
OVERNIGHT.

MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE THEN POSSIBLE ON WED...MAINLY WITH
LINGERING 5 FT SEAS.

SCA WINDS AND SEAS LIKELY ON THURSDAY AS EASTERLY FLOW INCREASES.
WINDS WILL TREND BELOW SCA LEVELS FRIDAY BUT SEAS ON OFFSHORE WATERS
SHOULD STAY ABOVE SCA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
RELAX ON SATURDAY AS REGION WEAKER FLOW SETS UP OVER THE WATERS.
SEAS AND WINDS COULD RETURN TO SCA LEVELS ON SUNDAY WITH INCREASED
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL HAS ENDED ACROSS THE REGION. IN GENERAL...UP
TO 3/4 OF AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL PCPN CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS E OF NYC.

NOTE...MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER.
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY CAUSE WATER LEVELS TO CONTINUE
TO RISE THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE FLOOD LEVELS
TO BE REACHED. MONITOR THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS FROM NWS TAUNTON MA.

NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS FOR WEDNESDAY APRIL 16:

EWR - 26 IN 1943  FORECAST LOW - 29
BDR - 29 IN 1981  FORECAST LOW - 29
NYC - 29 IN 1928  FORECAST LOW - 29
LGA - 31 IN 1943  FORECAST LOW - 30
JFK - 33 IN 1962  FORECAST LOW - 30
ISP - 32 IN 2008  FORECAST LOW - 30

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ009>012.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ069>075-
     078>081-176>179.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ004-006-
     103>108.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-
     345-350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/DS/DW
NEAR TERM...JMC/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...JMC/DS/DW
HYDROLOGY...DS/DW/JMC
CLIMATE...LN








000
FXUS61 KALY 160146
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
946 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST. THE SUN WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY WITH COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. A
GRADUAL WARM UP TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
MAINLY LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA NOW. HAVE INCREASED
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS A TAD BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND OBS.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

BASED ON THE DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW...AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN AND IN
THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY SHOULD HAVE THE BEST CHANCES AT 1 TO 4
INCHES...WITH VALLEY AREAS TO THE EAST PROBABLY SEEING DUSTINGS AS
DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND RELATIVELY WARM GROUND LIMITS SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
IN VALLEYS. ALSO...THE SNOW IS TIMED MAINLY AFTER DARK WHEN THE
SNOW CAN ACCUMULATE BEST. IT WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW...BUT
AGAIN...ENOUGH FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE REGION...ON
GRASSY AREAS. SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS ARE BEING ISSUED FOR
LOCALIZED BRIEF HEAVIER BURSTS OF SNOW.  WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL BE BREEZY ALL NIGHT...AND BASED ON UPSTREAM CONDITIONS...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL INTO THE 20S...SOME TEENS IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BREEZY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN...BUT PROSPECTS FOR QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE LOOKS GOOD.
STRONG SUN SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES REACH THE LOWER TO MID
40S...BUT 30S IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS. LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 20S...WITH TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
WARM ADVECTION. THERE SHOULD BE A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY DURING THE DAY
AND MOSTLY CLEAR AT NIGHT...OTHER THAN SOME PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS
FROM TIME TO TIME.

HIGHS THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 50 IN NORTHERN AREAS TO
LOWER TO MID 50S IN MOST OTHER AREAS. HIGHS FRIDAY SHOULD BE IN
THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A PERIOD OF DRY IN BETWEEN FAST-MOVING SYSTEMS MARKS THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.  SHOWERS MOVE IN WITH A COLD FRONT HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND...BEING CONFINED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO SATURDAY TO
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY.  THIS
WILL BE A WEAKER COLD FRONT THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE.  TEMPERATURES
WILL GET DOWN TO FROM AROUND 30 DEGREES IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND
GREENS...TO THE UPPER 30S DOWN THE HUDSON AND MOHAWK VALLEYS.  THIS
WILL RESULT IN A QUICK MIX-OVER OR CHANGEOVER TO SNOW APPROACHING
DAYBREAK SATURDAY AS THE SHOWERS CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST.

EARLY DAY HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S IN THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO AROUND 60 DEGREES IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.  CLOUDS AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL HELP SUPPRESS A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH LOW READINGS FROM THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S SATURDAY
NIGHT...SIMILAR TO FRIDAY NIGHT.  THIS COULD TURN ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...AND NORTH AND WEST OF THE
SARATOGA REGION BACK TO A MIX OR SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE ALL IS ENDED BY
DAYBREAK.

SUNDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 40S IN
THE GREENS AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO AROUND 60 DEGREES DOWN THE
HUDSON VALLEY.  THE DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
MORE OF THE SAME FOR LOW TEMPERATURES.  THE BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING FROM JAMES BAY TO THE GULF COAST SHIFTS EAST...AND A WEAK
LOW BRINGS IN THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT...THOUGH
IT IS EVEN LESS IMPRESSIVE THAN THE ONE BEFORE IT.  THIS WILL LIKELY
BE AN ALL-RAIN EVENT AS TEMPERATURES EVERYWHERE ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING WITH A WARM FRONT EVOLVING AND LIFTING NORTH
TOWARD OUR FORECAST AREA.  HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S AND
LOWER 60S WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE WEST
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE SUSTAINED
15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 TO 30 KTS THROUGH 09Z. COLD AIR IS
CAUSING PTYPE CHANGES FROM RA TO PL AND SN. ANY PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE OUT OF THE REGION AFTER 06-08Z.  EXPECT MAINLY MVFR
WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR FROM 00Z UNTIL 06Z.

CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL RETURN TO VFR AFTER 06Z - 08Z. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
COLD AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE SUN WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. A GRADUAL WARM UP TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE.

ALL AREAS RECEIVED A HALF INCH TO OVER AN INCH OF RAIN IN THE LAST
24 HOURS. SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...EASTERN CATSKILLS...SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND
BERKSHIRES TONIGHT.

RH VALUES SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 60 PERCENT AND 90 PERCENT ONCE
PRECIPITATION ENDS TONIGHT...ALONG WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25
MPH AND GUSTS TO 35 MPH.

SUNSHINE RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH A BRISK WEST WIND 10 TO
20 MPH...BUT GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WEDNESDAY SHOULD FALL TO THE 25 TO
35 PERCENT RANGE.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT
WINDS LESS THAN 15 MPH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR THE ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY/LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA
REGION CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TACONICS...SOUTHERN VERMONT AND THE
NORTHERN BERKSHIRES.

WIDESPREAD RAIN OF A HALF INCH TO INCH AND A HALF ALONG WITH SNOW
MELT HAVE PRODUCED SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF IN THE WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED
ALONG SOME RIVER POINTS IN THOSE AREAS AS SOME PLACES COULD REACH
MODERATE FLOOD STAGE...POSSIBLY MAJOR FLOOD STAGE AT RIVERBANK.
ADDITIONAL RUNOFF COULD OCCUR INTO THE WALLOOMSAC AND HOOSIC
RIVERS WITH WATER RISES APPROACHING FLOOD STAGE IN SOUTHERN
VERMONT AND WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS.

AS COLDER AIR POURS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...RAIN WILL TURN TO
SNOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...PRODUCING
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...THE PRECIPITATION
COULD EVEN END AS SNOW SHOWERS WITH A COATING IN PLACES.

THIS COLDER AIR WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING EVERYWHERE
OVERNIGHT...THUS SLOWING DOWN THE RUNOFF. HOWEVER...LARGE STEM
RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND NOT CREST UNTIL WEDNESDAY.

DRY WEATHER IS IN STORE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...VTK/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...VTK
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS








000
FXUS61 KOKX 160010 CCA
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
810 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PASS OFFSHORE LATE THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. THE
HIGH THEN LIFTS UP INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY AND UP INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS ALONG A STALLED FRONT TO THE SOUTH FRIDAY
NIGHT AND PASSES EAST OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE WITH THE
APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THE COLD FRONT WAS INTO ERN LI AND CT AT 730 PM. BASED ON RADAR
TIMING...IT IS TRACKING EASTWARD AT 18KT AND WILL BE OFF MONTAUK BY 930
PM.

PRIOR TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...THERE WILL BE MULTIPLE BANDS OF
SHOWERS WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. OTHERWISE...POST-
FRONTAL PCPN IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH AND
THE RRQ OF THE UPPER JET WILL CONTINUE THIS EVE. BY THE TIME THE
EVENT IS OVER LATE TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
WED...MUCH OF THE REGION WILL HAVE SEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL.

STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR THE TRANSITION OVER TO
SOME WET SNOW THIS EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS TO OCCUR
WILL BE IN THE NW SUBURBS WHERE A COATING TO AN INCH OF SNOW WILL
BE POSSIBLE. THE TIMING OF THE CHANGEOVER WILL BE CRITICAL AS TO
THE AMOUNTS. SHOULD THIS TRANSITION OCCUR EARLIER THAN FORECAST...
THERE COULD BE AS MUCH AS 2 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOWFALL. THE CHANGEOVER
WILL FIRST HAPPEN ACROSS ORANGE COUNTY IN NEW YORK AND PASSAIC
COUNTY NJ AROUND 8 PM. A COATING ACROSS EASTERN AREAS IS POSSIBLE.

GUSTY SOUTH WIND EARLY WILL TURN AROUND TO THE NW THIS EVENING
WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 MPH.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND FREEZING. THUS...
THE FREEZE WARNING HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO ALSO INCLUDE NYC...LONG
ISLAND...AND COASTAL CT. THIS IS IN ADDITION TO MOST OF NE NJ AND
ROCKLAND AND WESTCHESTER COUNTIES IN NEW YORK. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
TRENDING COLDER. BASED ON THE ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIR MASS...USED MODEL
2M TEMPS FOR LOWS...WHICH WAS SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW MOS GUIDANCE.
LOWS WILL BE CLOSE TO RECORDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ON WED WITH AN
ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIR MASS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER
40S...WHICH IS SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. GUSTY NW WINDS
WILL LINGER INTO THE AFT...MAKING IT FEEL MORE LIKE THE MID AND
UPPER 30S.

WED NIGHT WILL FEATURE ANOTHER POSSIBLE RECORD COLD NIGHT WITH
MOST LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE NYC METRO DROPPING BELOW FREEZING.
ANOTHER FREEZE IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE
REGION WILL BE ON THE WEST SIDE OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY SHIFTS INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES BY FRIDAY. THIS PATTERN SETS UP AN EAST TO
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS. THIS ONSHORE FLOW SERVES TO
KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S
AND LOWER 50S ON THURSDAY AND LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S ON FRIDAY.
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING COULD PROMOTE DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
ZONES. HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DURING THIS TIME.

THE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES APPROACHES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG A STALLED
FRONT OFFSHORE. MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE KEEPS THE LOW FAR ENOUGH
OFFSHORE TO PREVENT A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT. THE MODELS DIFFER ON
THE AMPLITUDE...TIMING...AND PLACEMENT OF THE VORTICITY MAXIMA WITHIN
THE UPPER TROUGH HOWEVER. AT THE VERY LEAST...SATURDAY WILL BE
MOSTLY CLOUDY AND HAVE CONTINUED A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE. DUE TO CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION...TEMPERATURES CONTINUE BELOW NORMAL IN THE 50S.

A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW SETS UP ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUES INTO MONDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN DURING THIS TIME WITH DRY
CONDITIONS. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON
SUNDAY AND THEN WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL ON MONDAY.

A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH ON TUESDAY
BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. HIGH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AT THIS TIME
SO HAVE ONLY INCLUDED CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR
NORMAL IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT EXITS TO THE EAST EARLY THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.

CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE FROM MVFR VARIABLE IFR TO VFR INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SHOULD SEE -SHRA TRANSITION OVER TO AT LEAST
A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT ALL TERMINALS...AND OVER TO ALL -SN AT KSWF AND
KHPN BEFORE ENDING. POTENTIAL FOR 1-2 INCH ACCUMULATION KSWF...AND
LESS THAN 1 INCH KHPN. LOW PROBABILITY OF A COATING OF SLUSH
ELSEWHERE.

LLWS LINGERS AT KGON UNTIL COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WHICH SHOULD
BE RIGHT AROUND 1Z. BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS OUT THE NW G20-30KT
THROUGH THE NIGHT. COULD SEE ISOLATED 35-40KT GUSTS OVERNIGHT. WINDS
GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS WINDS VEER TO
THE NNW. WIND GUSTS SHOULD ABATE BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THE
WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE N.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING ON CHANGES IN CEILING/VISIBILITY/WIND
SPEED-DIRECTION-GUST SPEED...AND ONSET OF RAIN-SNOW MIX...ALL
COULD BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING ON CHANGES IN CEILING/VISIBILITY/WIND
SPEED-DIRECTION-GUST SPEED...AND ONSET OF RAIN-SNOW MIX...ALL
COULD BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING ON CHANGES IN CEILING/VISIBILITY/WIND
SPEED-DIRECTION-GUST SPEED...AND ONSET OF RAIN-SNOW MIX...ALL
COULD BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING ON CHANGES IN CEILING/VISIBILITY/WIND
SPEED-DIRECTION-GUST SPEED...AND ONSET OF RAIN-SNOW MIX...ALL
COULD BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING ON CHANGES IN CEILING/VISIBILITY/WIND
SPEED-DIRECTION-GUST SPEED...AND ONSET OF RAIN-SNOW MIX THEN
CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW...ALL COULD BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING ON CHANGES IN CEILING/VISIBILITY/WIND
SPEED-DIRECTION-GUST SPEED...AND ONSET OF RAIN-SNOW MIX...ALL
COULD BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...VFR. E WIND G AROUND 20KT POSSIBLE.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRI NIGHT...VFR.
.SATURDAY...PSBL MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW CHANCE OF -SHRA. W-NW
WIND G25-30KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...VFR

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS...PRIMARILY FOR THE NW FLOW
TONIGHT BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. GUSTS UP TO 40 KT
POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...IN THE HOURS PRECEDING THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE EARLY THIS EVENING...THERE WILL ALSO BE MARGINAL GALE FORCE
GUSTS IN THE SLY FLOW. MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE THEN POSSIBLE ON
WED...MAINLY WITH LINGERING 5 FT SEAS.

SCA WINDS AND SEAS LIKELY ON THURSDAY AS EASTERLY FLOW INCREASES.
WINDS WILL TREND BELOW SCA LEVELS FRIDAY BUT SEAS ON OFFSHORE WATERS
SHOULD STAY ABOVE SCA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
RELAX ON SATURDAY AS REGION WEAKER FLOW SETS UP OVER THE WATERS.
SEAS AND WINDS COULD RETURN TO SCA LEVELS ON SUNDAY WITH INCREASED
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL OF 1 1/2 TO 2 INCHES...MAINLY ALL LIQUID...EXPECTED FOR
THE EVENT TOTAL THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN ANY STRONG CONVECTION.

LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN/POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS. ALSO LOW  POTENTIAL FOR FLASHY SMALL STREAMS
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY INTO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY TO
REACH MINOR FLOOD LEVELS WITH 1 HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE AROUND 1
INCH.

NOTE...MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER.
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY CAUSE WATER LEVELS TO CONTINUE
TO RISE THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE FLOOD LEVELS
TO BE REACHED. MONITOR THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS FROM NWS TAUNTON MA.

NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD LOWS FOR WEDNESDAY APRIL 16:

EWR - 26 IN 1943  FORECAST LOW - 29
BDR - 29 IN 1981  FORECAST LOW - 29
NYC - 29 IN 1928  FORECAST LOW - 29
LGA - 31 IN 1943  FORECAST LOW - 30
JFK - 33 IN 1962  FORECAST LOW - 30
ISP - 32 IN 2008  FORECAST LOW - 30

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ009>012.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ069>075-
     078>081-176>179.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ004-006-
     103>108.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-
     345-350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JMC/DW/DS
NEAR TERM...JMC/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...DW/DS
HYDROLOGY...DW/DS
CLIMATE...LN





000
FXUS61 KOKX 160008 CCA
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
808 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PASS OFFSHORE LATE THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. THE
HIGH THEN LIFTS UP INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY AND UP INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS ALONG A STALLED FRONT TO THE SOUTH FRIDAY
NIGHT AND PASSES EAST OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE WITH THE
APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THE COLD FRONT WAS INTO ERN LI AND CT AT 730 PM. BASED ON RADAR
TIMING...IT IS TRACKING EASTWARD AT 18KT AND WILL BE OFF MONTAUK BY 930
PM.

PRIOR TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...THERE WILL BE MULTIPLE BANDS OF
SHOWERS WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. OTHERWISE...POST-
FRONTAL PCPN IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH AND
THE RRQ OF THE UPPER JET WILL CONTINUE THIS EVE. BY THE TIME THE
EVENT IS OVER LATE TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
WED...MUCH OF THE REGION WILL HAVE SEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL.

STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR THE TRANSITION OVER TO
SOME WET SNOW THIS EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS TO OCCUR
WILL BE IN THE NW SUBURBS WHERE A COATING TO AN INCH OF SNOW WILL
BE POSSIBLE. THE TIMING OF THE CHANGEOVER WILL BE CRITICAL AS TO
THE AMOUNTS. SHOULD THIS TRANSITION OCCUR EARLIER THAN FORECAST...
THERE COULD BE AS MUCH AS 2 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOWFALL. THE CHANGEOVER
WILL FIRST HAPPEN ACROSS ORANGE COUNTY IN NEW YORK AND PASSAIC
COUNTY NJ AROUND 8 PM. A COATING ACROSS EASTERN AREAS IS POSSIBLE.

GUSTY SOUTH WIND EARLY WILL TURN AROUND TO THE NW THIS EVENING
WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 MPH.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND FREEZING. THUS...
THE FREEZE WARNING HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO ALSO INCLUDE NYC...LONG
ISLAND...AND COASTAL CT. THIS IS IN ADDITION TO MOST OF NE NJ AND
ROCKLAND AND WESTCHESTER COUNTIES IN NEW YORK. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
TRENDING COLDER. BASED ON THE ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIR MASS...USED MODEL
2M TEMPS FOR LOWS...WHICH WAS SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW MOS GUIDANCE.
LOWS WILL BE CLOSE TO RECORDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ON WED WITH AN
ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIR MASS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER
40S...WHICH IS SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. GUSTY NW WINDS
WILL LINGER INTO THE AFT...MAKING IT FEEL MORE LIKE THE MID AND
UPPER 30S.

WED NIGHT WILL FEATURE ANOTHER POSSIBLE RECORD COLD NIGHT WITH
MOST LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE NYC METRO DROPPING BELOW FREEZING.
ANOTHER FREEZE IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE
REGION WILL BE ON THE WEST SIDE OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY SHIFTS INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES BY FRIDAY. THIS PATTERN SETS UP AN EAST TO
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS. THIS ONSHORE FLOW SERVES TO
KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S
AND LOWER 50S ON THURSDAY AND LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S ON FRIDAY.
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING COULD PROMOTE DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
ZONES. HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DURING THIS TIME.

THE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES APPROACHES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG A STALLED
FRONT OFFSHORE. MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE KEEPS THE LOW FAR ENOUGH
OFFSHORE TO PREVENT A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT. THE MODELS DIFFER ON
THE AMPLITUDE...TIMING...AND PLACEMENT OF THE VORTICITY MAXIMA WITHIN
THE UPPER TROUGH HOWEVER. AT THE VERY LEAST...SATURDAY WILL BE
MOSTLY CLOUDY AND HAVE CONTINUED A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE. DUE TO CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION...TEMPERATURES CONTINUE BELOW NORMAL IN THE 50S.

A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW SETS UP ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUES INTO MONDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN DURING THIS TIME WITH DRY
CONDITIONS. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON
SUNDAY AND THEN WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL ON MONDAY.

A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH ON TUESDAY
BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. HIGH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AT THIS TIME
SO HAVE ONLY INCLUDED CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR
NORMAL IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT EXITS TO THE EAST EARLY THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.

CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE FROM MVFR VARIABLE IFR TO VFR INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SHOULD SEE -SHRA TRANSITION OVER TO AT LEAST
A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT ALL TERMINALS...AND OVER TO ALL -SN AT KSWF AND
KHPN BEFORE ENDING. POTENTIAL FOR 1-2 INCH ACCUMULATION KSWF...AND
LESS THAN 1 INCH KHPN. LOW PROBABILITY OF A COATING OF SLUSH
ELSEWHERE.

LLWS LINGERS AT KGON UNTIL COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WHICH SHOULD
BE RIGHT AROUND 1Z. BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS OUT THE NW G20-30KT
THROUGH THE NIGHT. COULD SEE ISOLATED 35-40KT GUSTS OVERNIGHT. WINDS
GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS WINDS VEER TO
THE NNW. WIND GUSTS SHOULD ABATE BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THE
WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE N.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING ON CHANGES IN CEILING/VISIBILITY/WIND
SPEED-DIRECTION-GUST SPEED...AND ONSET OF RAIN-SNOW MIX...ALL
COULD BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING ON CHANGES IN CEILING/VISIBILITY/WIND
SPEED-DIRECTION-GUST SPEED...AND ONSET OF RAIN-SNOW MIX...ALL
COULD BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING ON CHANGES IN CEILING/VISIBILITY/WIND
SPEED-DIRECTION-GUST SPEED...AND ONSET OF RAIN-SNOW MIX...ALL
COULD BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING ON CHANGES IN CEILING/VISIBILITY/WIND
SPEED-DIRECTION-GUST SPEED...AND ONSET OF RAIN-SNOW MIX...ALL
COULD BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING ON CHANGES IN CEILING/VISIBILITY/WIND
SPEED-DIRECTION-GUST SPEED...AND ONSET OF RAIN-SNOW MIX THEN
CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW...ALL COULD BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING ON CHANGES IN CEILING/VISIBILITY/WIND
SPEED-DIRECTION-GUST SPEED...AND ONSET OF RAIN-SNOW MIX...ALL
COULD BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...VFR. E WIND G AROUND 20KT POSSIBLE.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRI NIGHT...VFR.
.SATURDAY...PSBL MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW CHANCE OF -SHRA. W-NW
WIND G25-30KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...VFR

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS...PRIMARILY FOR THE NW FLOW
TONIGHT BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. GUSTS UP TO 40 KT
POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...IN THE HOURS PRECEDING THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE EARLY THIS EVENING...THERE WILL ALSO BE MARGINAL GALE FORCE
GUSTS IN THE SLY FLOW. MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE THEN POSSIBLE ON
WED...MAINLY WITH LINGERING 5 FT SEAS.

SCA WINDS AND SEAS LIKELY ON THURSDAY AS EASTERLY FLOW INCREASES.
WINDS WILL TREND BELOW SCA LEVELS FRIDAY BUT SEAS ON OFFSHORE WATERS
SHOULD STAY ABOVE SCA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
RELAX ON SATURDAY AS REGION WEAKER FLOW SETS UP OVER THE WATERS.
SEAS AND WINDS COULD RETURN TO SCA LEVELS ON SUNDAY WITH INCREASED
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL OF 1 1/2 TO 2 INCHES...MAINLY ALL LIQUID...EXPECTED FOR
THE EVENT TOTAL THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN ANY STRONG CONVECTION.

LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN/POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS. ALSO LOW  POTENTIAL FOR FLASHY SMALL STREAMS
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY INTO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY TO
REACH MINOR FLOOD LEVELS WITH 1 HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE AROUND 1
INCH.

NOTE...MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER.
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY CAUSE WATER LEVELS TO CONTINUE
TO RISE THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE FLOOD LEVELS
TO BE REACHED. MONITOR THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS FROM NWS TAUNTON MA.

NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

RECORD LOWS FOR WEDNESDAY APRIL 16:

EWR - 26 IN 1943  FORECAST LOW - 29
BDR - 29 IN 1981  FORECAST LOW - 29
NYC - 29 IN 1928  FORECAST LOW - 29
LGA - 31 IN 1943  FORECAST LOW - 30
JFK - 33 IN 1962  FORECAST LOW - 30
ISP - 32 IN 2008  FORECAST LOW - 30

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ009>012.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ069>075-
     078>081-176>179.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ004-006-
     103>108.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-
     345-350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JMC/DW/DS
NEAR TERM...JMC/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...DW/DS
HYDROLOGY...DW/DS
CLIMATE...LN







000
FXUS61 KOKX 160006
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
806 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PASS OFFSHORE LATE THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. THE
HIGH THEN LIFTS UP INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY AND UP INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS ALONG A STALLED FRONT TO THE SOUTH FRIDAY
NIGHT AND PASSES EAST OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE WITH THE
APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THE COLD FRONT WAS INTO ERN LI AND CT AT 730 PM. BASED ON RADAR
TIMING...IT IS TRACKING EASTWARD AT 18KT AND WILL BE OFF MONTAUK BY 930
PM.

PRIOR TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...THERE WILL BE MULTIPLE BANDS OF
SHOWERS WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. OTHERWISE...POST-
FRONTAL PCPN IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH AND
THE RRQ OF THE UPPER JET WILL CONTINUE THIS EVE. BY THE TIME THE
EVENT IS OVER LATE TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
WED...MUCH OF THE REGION WILL HAVE SEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL.

STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR THE TRANSITION OVER TO
SOME WET SNOW THIS EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS TO OCCUR
WILL BE IN THE NW SUBURBS WHERE A COATING TO AN INCH OF SNOW WILL
BE POSSIBLE. THE TIMING OF THE CHANGEOVER WILL BE CRITICAL AS TO
THE AMOUNTS. SHOULD THIS TRANSITION OCCUR EARLIER THAN FORECAST...
THERE COULD BE AS MUCH AS 2 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOWFALL. THE CHANGEOVER
WILL FIRST HAPPEN ACROSS ORANGE COUNTY IN NEW YORK AND PASSAIC
COUNTY NJ AROUND 8 PM. A COATING ACROSS EASTERN AREAS IS POSSIBLE.

GUSTY SOUTH WIND EARLY WILL TURN AROUND TO THE NW THIS EVENING
WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 MPH.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND FREEZING. THUS...
THE FREEZE WARNING HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO ALSO INCLUDE NYC...LONG
ISLAND...AND COASTAL CT. THIS IS IN ADDITION TO MOST OF NE NJ AND
ROCKLAND AND WESTCHESTER COUNTIES IN NEW YORK. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
TRENDING COLDER. BASED ON THE ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIR MASS...USED MODEL
2M TEMPS FOR LOWS...WHICH WAS SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW MOS GUIDANCE.
LOWS WILL BE CLOSE TO RECORDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ON WED WITH AN
ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIR MASS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER
40S...WHICH IS SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. GUSTY NW WINDS
WILL LINGER INTO THE AFT...MAKING IT FEEL MORE LIKE THE MID AND
UPPER 30S.

WED NIGHT WILL FEATURE ANOTHER POSSIBLE RECORD COLD NIGHT WITH
MOST LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE NYC METRO DROPPING BELOW FREEZING.
ANOTHER FREEZE IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE
REGION WILL BE ON THE WEST SIDE OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY SHIFTS INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES BY FRIDAY. THIS PATTERN SETS UP AN EAST TO
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS. THIS ONSHORE FLOW SERVES TO
KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S
AND LOWER 50S ON THURSDAY AND LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S ON FRIDAY.
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING COULD PROMOTE DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
ZONES. HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DURING THIS TIME.

THE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES APPROACHES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG A STALLED
FRONT OFFSHORE. MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE KEEPS THE LOW FAR ENOUGH
OFFSHORE TO PREVENT A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT. THE MODELS DIFFER ON
THE AMPLITUDE...TIMING...AND PLACEMENT OF THE VORTICITY MAXIMA WITHIN
THE UPPER TROUGH HOWEVER. AT THE VERY LEAST...SATURDAY WILL BE
MOSTLY CLOUDY AND HAVE CONTINUED A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE. DUE TO CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION...TEMPERATURES CONTINUE BELOW NORMAL IN THE 50S.

A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW SETS UP ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUES INTO MONDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN DURING THIS TIME WITH DRY
CONDITIONS. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON
SUNDAY AND THEN WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL ON MONDAY.

A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH ON TUESDAY
BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. HIGH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AT THIS TIME
SO HAVE ONLY INCLUDED CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR
NORMAL IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT EXITS TO THE EAST EARLY THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.

CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE FROM MVFR VARIABLE IFR TO VFR INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SHOULD SEE -SHRA TRANSITION OVER TO AT LEAST
A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT ALL TERMINALS...AND OVER TO ALL -SN AT KSWF AND
KHPN BEFORE ENDING. POTENTIAL FOR 1-2 INCH ACCUMULATION KSWF...AND
LESS THAN 1 INCH KHPN. LOW PROBABILITY OF A COATING OF SLUSH
ELSEWHERE.

LLWS LINGERS AT KGON UNTIL COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WHICH SHOULD
BE RIGHT AROUND 1Z. BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS OUT THE NW G20-30KT
THROUGH THE NIGHT. COULD SEE ISOLATED 35-40KT GUSTS OVERNIGHT. WINDS
GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS WINDS VEER TO
THE NNW. WIND GUSTS SHOULD ABATE BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THE
WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE N.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING ON CHANGES IN CEILING/VISIBILITY/WIND
SPEED-DIRECTION-GUST SPEED...AND ONSET OF RAIN-SNOW MIX...ALL
COULD BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING ON CHANGES IN CEILING/VISIBILITY/WIND
SPEED-DIRECTION-GUST SPEED...AND ONSET OF RAIN-SNOW MIX...ALL
COULD BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING ON CHANGES IN CEILING/VISIBILITY/WIND
SPEED-DIRECTION-GUST SPEED...AND ONSET OF RAIN-SNOW MIX...ALL
COULD BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING ON CHANGES IN CEILING/VISIBILITY/WIND
SPEED-DIRECTION-GUST SPEED...AND ONSET OF RAIN-SNOW MIX...ALL
COULD BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING ON CHANGES IN CEILING/VISIBILITY/WIND
SPEED-DIRECTION-GUST SPEED...AND ONSET OF RAIN-SNOW MIX THEN
CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW...ALL COULD BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING ON CHANGES IN CEILING/VISIBILITY/WIND
SPEED-DIRECTION-GUST SPEED...AND ONSET OF RAIN-SNOW MIX...ALL
COULD BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...VFR. E WIND G AROUND 20KT POSSIBLE.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRI NIGHT...VFR.
.SATURDAY...PSBL MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW CHANCE OF -SHRA. W-NW
WIND G25-30KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...VFR

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS...PRIMARILY FOR THE NW FLOW
TONIGHT BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. GUSTS UP TO 40 KT
POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...IN THE HOURS PRECEDING THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE EARLY THIS EVENING...THERE WILL ALSO BE MARGINAL GALE FORCE
GUSTS IN THE SLY FLOW. MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE THEN POSSIBLE ON
WED...MAINLY WITH LINGERING 5 FT SEAS.

SCA WINDS AND SEAS LIKELY ON THURSDAY AS EASTERLY FLOW INCREASES.
WINDS WILL TREND BELOW SCA LEVELS FRIDAY BUT SEAS ON OFFSHORE WATERS
SHOULD STAY ABOVE SCA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
RELAX ON SATURDAY AS REGION WEAKER FLOW SETS UP OVER THE WATERS.
SEAS AND WINDS COULD RETURN TO SCA LEVELS ON SUNDAY WITH INCREASED
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL OF 1 1/2 TO 2 INCHES...MAINLY ALL LIQUID...EXPECTED FOR
THE EVENT TOTAL THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN ANY STRONG CONVECTION.

LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN/POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS. ALSO LOW  POTENTIAL FOR FLASHY SMALL STREAMS
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY INTO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY TO
REACH MINOR FLOOD LEVELS WITH 1 HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE AROUND 1
INCH.

NOTE...MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER.
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY CAUSE WATER LEVELS TO CONTINUE
TO RISE THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE FLOOD LEVELS
TO BE REACHED. MONITOR THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS FROM NWS TAUNTON MA.

NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

RECORD LOWS FOR WEDNESDAY APRIL 16:

EWR - 26 IN 1943  FORECAST LOW - 29
BDR - 29 IN 1981  FORECAST LOW - 29
NYC - 29 IN 1928  FORECAST LOW - 29
LGA - 31 IN 1943  FORECAST LOW - 30
JFK - 33 IN 1962  FORECAST LOW - 30
ISP - 32 IN 2008  FORECAST LOW - 30

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ009>012.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ069>075-
     078>081-176>179.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ004-006-
     103>108.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-
     345-350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JMC/DW/DS
NEAR TERM...JMC/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...DW/DS
HYDROLOGY...DW/DS
CLIMATE...LN





000
FXUS61 KALY 160000
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
800 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST. THE SUN WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY WITH COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. A
GRADUAL WARM UP TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA NOW...AND WHATEVER MIX IS
OCCURRING IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WILL CHANGE TO SNOW BY 9 PM. JUST
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS THROUGH TONIGHT BASED ON CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS BUT LENGTH OF PERIOD OF SNOW AND SNOW
AMOUNTS STILL GENERALLY LOOK IN THE BALL PARK FOR ALL AREAS.

BASED ON THE DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW...AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN AND IN
THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY SHOULD HAVE THE BEST CHANCES AT 1 TO 4
INCHES...WITH VALLEY AREAS TO THE EAST PROBABLY SEEING DUSTINGS AS
DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND RELATIVELY WARM GROUND LIMITS SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
IN VALLEYS. ALSO...THE SNOW IS TIMED MAINLY AFTER DARK WHEN THE
SNOW CAN ACCUMULATE BEST. IT WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW...BUT
AGAIN...ENOUGH FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE REGION...ON
GRASSY AREAS. SPECIAL WEATHER STATMENTS ARE BEING ISSUED FOR
LOCALIZED BRIEF HEAVIER BURSTS OF SNOW.  WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL BE BREEZY ALL NIGHT...AND BASED ON UPSTREAM CONDITIONS...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL INTO THE 20S...SOME TEENS IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BREEZY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN...BUT PROSPECTS FOR QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE LOOKS GOOD.
STRONG SUN SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES REACH THE LOWER TO MID
40S...BUT 30S IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS. LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 20S...WITH TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
WARM ADVECTION. THERE SHOULD BE A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY DURING THE DAY
AND MOSTLY CLEAR AT NIGHT...OTHER THAN SOME PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS
FROM TIME TO TIME.

HIGHS THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 50 IN NORTHERN AREAS TO
LOWER TO MID 50S IN MOST OTHER AREAS. HIGHS FRIDAY SHOULD BE IN
THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A PERIOD OF DRY IN BETWEEN FAST-MOVING SYSTEMS MARKS THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.  SHOWERS MOVE IN WITH A COLD FRONT HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND...BEING CONFINED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO SATURDAY TO
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY.  THIS
WILL BE A WEAKER COLD FRONT THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE.  TEMPERATURES
WILL GET DOWN TO FROM AROUND 30 DEGREES IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND
GREENS...TO THE UPPER 30S DOWN THE HUDSON AND MOHAWK VALLEYS.  THIS
WILL RESULT IN A QUICK MIX-OVER OR CHANGEOVER TO SNOW APPROACHING
DAYBREAK SATURDAY AS THE SHOWERS CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST.

EARLY DAY HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S IN THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO AROUND 60 DEGREES IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.  CLOUDS AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL HELP SUPPRESS A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH LOW READINGS FROM THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S SATURDAY
NIGHT...SIMILAR TO FRIDAY NIGHT.  THIS COULD TURN ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...AND NORTH AND WEST OF THE
SARATOGA REGION BACK TO A MIX OR SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE ALL IS ENDED BY
DAYBREAK.

SUNDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 40S IN
THE GREENS AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO AROUND 60 DEGREES DOWN THE
HUDSON VALLEY.  THE DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
MORE OF THE SAME FOR LOW TEMPERATURES.  THE BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING FROM JAMES BAY TO THE GULF COAST SHIFTS EAST...AND A WEAK
LOW BRINGS IN THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT...THOUGH
IT IS EVEN LESS IMPRESSIVE THAN THE ONE BEFORE IT.  THIS WILL LIKELY
BE AN ALL-RAIN EVENT AS TEMPERATURES EVERYWHERE ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING WITH A WARM FRONT EVOLVING AND LIFTING NORTH
TOWARD OUR FORECAST AREA.  HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S AND
LOWER 60S WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE WEST
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE SUSTAINED
15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 TO 30 KTS THROUGH 09Z. COLD AIR IS
CAUSING PTYPE CHANGES FROM RA TO PL AND SN. ANY PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE OUT OF THE REGION AFTER 06-08Z.  EXPECT MAINLY MVFR
WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR FROM 00Z UNTIL 06Z.

CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL RETURN TO VFR AFTER 06Z - 08Z. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
COLD AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE SUN WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. A GRADUAL WARM UP TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE.

ALL AREAS RECEIVED A HALF INCH TO OVER AN INCH OF RAIN IN THE LAST
24 HOURS. SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...EASTERN CATSKILLS...SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND
BERKSHIRES TONIGHT.

RH VALUES SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 60 PERCENT AND 90 PERCENT ONCE
PRECIPITATION ENDS TONIGHT...ALONG WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25
MPH AND GUSTS TO 35 MPH.

SUNSHINE RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH A BRISK WEST WIND 10 TO
20 MPH...BUT GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WEDNESDAY SHOULD FALL TO THE 25 TO
35 PERCENT RANGE.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT
WINDS LESS THAN 15 MPH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR THE ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY/LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA
REGION CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TACONICS...SOUTHERN VERMONT AND THE
NORTHERN BERKSHIRES.

WIDESPREAD RAIN OF A HALF INCH TO INCH AND A HALF ALONG WITH SNOW
MELT HAVE PRODUCED SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF IN THE WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED
ALONG SOME RIVER POINTS IN THOSE AREAS AS SOME PLACES COULD REACH
MODERATE FLOOD STAGE...POSSIBLY MAJOR FLOOD STAGE AT RIVERBANK.
ADDITIONAL RUNOFF COULD OCCUR INTO THE WALLOOMSAC AND HOOSIC
RIVERS WITH WATER RISES APPROACHING FLOOD STAGE IN SOUTHERN
VERMONT AND WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS.

AS COLDER AIR POURS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...RAIN WILL TURN TO
SNOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...PRODUCING
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...THE PRECIPITATION
COULD EVEN END AS SNOW SHOWERS WITH A COATING IN PLACES.

THIS COLDER AIR WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING EVERYWHERE
OVERNIGHT...THUS SLOWING DOWN THE RUNOFF. HOWEVER...LARGE STEM
RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND NOT CREST UNTIL WEDNESDAY.

DRY WEATHER IS IN STORE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR NYZ032-033-038>043-
     050-053-054-082>084.
MA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MAZ001.
VT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...VTK
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS








000
FXUS61 KALY 152324
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
724 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST. THE SUN WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY WITH COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. A
GRADUAL WARM UP TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA NOW...AND WHATEVER MIX IS
OCCURRING IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WILL CHANGE TO SNOW BY 9 PM. JUST
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS THROUGH TONIGHT BASED ON CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS BUT LENGTH OF PERIOD OF SNOW AND SNOW
AMOUNTS STILL GENERALLY LOOK IN THE BALL PARK FOR ALL AREAS.

BASED ON THE DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW...AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN AND IN
THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY SHOULD HAVE THE BEST CHANCES AT 1 TO 4
INCHES...WITH VALLEY AREAS TO THE EAST PROBABLY SEEING DUSTINGS AS
DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND RELATIVELY WARM GROUND LIMITS SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
IN VALLEYS. ALSO...THE SNOW IS TIMED MAINLY AFTER DARK WHEN THE
SNOW CAN ACCUMULATE BEST. IT WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW...BUT
AGAIN...ENOUGH FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE REGION...ON
GRASSY AREAS. SPECIAL WEATHER STATMENTS ARE BEING ISSUED FOR
LOCALIZED BRIEF HEAVIER BURSTS OF SNOW.  WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL BE BREEZY ALL NIGHT...AND BASED ON UPSTREAM CONDITIONS...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL INTO THE 20S...SOME TEENS IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BREEZY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN...BUT PROSPECTS FOR QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE LOOKS GOOD.
STRONG SUN SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES REACH THE LOWER TO MID
40S...BUT 30S IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS. LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 20S...WITH TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
WARM ADVECTION. THERE SHOULD BE A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY DURING THE DAY
AND MOSTLY CLEAR AT NIGHT...OTHER THAN SOME PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS
FROM TIME TO TIME.

HIGHS THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 50 IN NORTHERN AREAS TO
LOWER TO MID 50S IN MOST OTHER AREAS. HIGHS FRIDAY SHOULD BE IN
THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A PERIOD OF DRY IN BETWEEN FAST-MOVING SYSTEMS MARKS THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.  SHOWERS MOVE IN WITH A COLD FRONT HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND...BEING CONFINED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO SATURDAY TO
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY.  THIS
WILL BE A WEAKER COLD FRONT THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE.  TEMPERATURES
WILL GET DOWN TO FROM AROUND 30 DEGREES IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND
GREENS...TO THE UPPER 30S DOWN THE HUDSON AND MOHAWK VALLEYS.  THIS
WILL RESULT IN A QUICK MIX-OVER OR CHANGEOVER TO SNOW APPROACHING
DAYBREAK SATURDAY AS THE SHOWERS CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST.

EARLY DAY HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S IN THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO AROUND 60 DEGREES IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.  CLOUDS AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL HELP SUPPRESS A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH LOW READINGS FROM THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S SATURDAY
NIGHT...SIMILAR TO FRIDAY NIGHT.  THIS COULD TURN ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...AND NORTH AND WEST OF THE
SARATOGA REGION BACK TO A MIX OR SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE ALL IS ENDED BY
DAYBREAK.

SUNDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 40S IN
THE GREENS AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO AROUND 60 DEGREES DOWN THE
HUDSON VALLEY.  THE DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
MORE OF THE SAME FOR LOW TEMPERATURES.  THE BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING FROM JAMES BAY TO THE GULF COAST SHIFTS EAST...AND A WEAK
LOW BRINGS IN THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT...THOUGH
IT IS EVEN LESS IMPRESSIVE THAN THE ONE BEFORE IT.  THIS WILL LIKELY
BE AN ALL-RAIN EVENT AS TEMPERATURES EVERYWHERE ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING WITH A WARM FRONT EVOLVING AND LIFTING NORTH
TOWARD OUR FORECAST AREA.  HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S AND
LOWER 60S WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS THE REGION EARLY IN THE TAF
PERIOD BRINGING MVFR FLYING CONDITIONS TO ALL THE TAF SITES. VFR
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY 06Z AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION.

THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...COLD FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
PREDOMINATELY MVFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY THESE
SHOWERS...EXCEPT FOR INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF IFR AT KPSF.

SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL RANGE FROM 12-18 KNOTS
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 25-30 KNOTS. AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH THE REGION IN THE 21Z-00Z TIMEFRAME...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE NORTHWEST BUT REMAIN GUSTY AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25
KNOTS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO DRAG DRAMATICALLY COLDER AIR INTO THE
REGION IN ITS WAKE...AS TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET INTO THE LOW AND
MID 30S BY 00Z. WHILE THE PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD REMAIN
RAIN...THERE MAY BE A LIGHT MIXTURE OF SNOW AND SLEET AROUND
00Z...BUT EXPECT THIS TRANSITION TO OCCUR AFTER 00Z AT THIS TIME.

TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BY 00Z THE TAF SITES WILL BE TRANSITIONING
TO A SNOW/SLEET/RAIN MIX AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO FALL BEFORE
BECOMING ALL SNOW BY 03Z. THERE WILL NOT BE AS MUCH MOISTURE BEHIND
THE FRONT SO HAVE MENTIONED JUST -SHSN IN THE TAFS WITH A COATING TO
PERHAPS AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KGFL AND
KPSF.

SKIES WILL RAPIDLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 06Z AND BECOME SKC
BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS...BEFORE INCREASING
SLIGHTLY TO END THE TAF PERIOD AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25
KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
COLD AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE SUN WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. A GRADUAL WARM UP TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE.

ALL AREAS RECEIVED A HALF INCH TO OVER AN INCH OF RAIN IN THE LAST
24 HOURS. SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...EASTERN CATSKILLS...SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND
BERKSHIRES TONIGHT.

RH VALUES SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 60 PERCENT AND 90 PERCENT ONCE
PRECIPITATION ENDS TONIGHT...ALONG WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25
MPH AND GUSTS TO 35 MPH.

SUNSHINE RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH A BRISK WEST WIND 10 TO
20 MPH...BUT GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WEDNESDAY SHOULD FALL TO THE 25 TO
35 PERCENT RANGE.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT
WINDS LESS THAN 15 MPH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR THE ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY/LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA
REGION CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TACONICS...SOUTHERN VERMONT AND THE
NORTHERN BERKSHIRES.

WIDESPREAD RAIN OF A HALF INCH TO INCH AND A HALF ALONG WITH SNOW
MELT HAVE PRODUCED SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF IN THE WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED
ALONG SOME RIVER POINTS IN THOSE AREAS AS SOME PLACES COULD REACH
MODERATE FLOOD STAGE...POSSIBLY MAJOR FLOOD STAGE AT RIVERBANK.
ADDITIONAL RUNOFF COULD OCCUR INTO THE WALLOOMSAC AND HOOSIC
RIVERS WITH WATER RISES APPROACHING FLOOD STAGE IN SOUTHERN
VERMONT AND WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS.

AS COLDER AIR POURS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...RAIN WILL TURN TO
SNOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...PRODUCING
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...THE PRECIPITATION
COULD EVEN END AS SNOW SHOWERS WITH A COATING IN PLACES.

THIS COLDER AIR WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING EVERYWHERE
OVERNIGHT...THUS SLOWING DOWN THE RUNOFF. HOWEVER...LARGE STEM
RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND NOT CREST UNTIL WEDNESDAY.

DRY WEATHER IS IN STORE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR NYZ032-033-038>043-
     050-053-054-082>084.
MA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MAZ001.
VT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...VTK
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS








000
FXUS61 KBOX 152309
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
709 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHARP COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT WILL BRING A
MIX OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY RAIN...AND EVEN A BRIEF CHANGE
TO A WINTRY MIX BEFORE ENDING EARLY ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
IMMEDIATE FOLLOWING BRINGING DRY BUT UNSEASONABLE CONDITIONS FOR
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THURSDAY INTO
THE FIRST PART OF FRIDAY WITH MODERATING AFTERNOON TEMPS INLAND...
BUT REMAINING CHILLY ALONG THE COAST. LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING A
ROUND OR TWO OF RAIN SHOWERS SOMETIME FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
THEN DRY AND COOLER SUNDAY/MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

7 PM UPDATE...

COLD FRONT NOW ENTERING THE CT RVR VLY WITH A SHARP WIND SHIFT TO
THE WEST ALONG WITH FALLING TEMPS. QUITE THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH
TEMP OF 61 AT ORE AND 37 AT PSF! WARM SECTOR REMAINS ACROSS
EASTERN MA/RI AND INTO EASTERN CT WITH TEMPS IN THE L60S AWAY FROM
THE SOUTH COAST. DEEP MOISTURE PLUME WITH PWATS UP TO 1.4 INCHES
CENTERED OVER RI AND EASTERN MA...SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD. RAIN
SHIELD HAS BECOME MORE FRAGMENTED WITH TIME HOWEVER HEAVIER
ELEMENTS EMBEDDED IN LARGER RAIN SHIELD. HEAVIER RAIN THREAT WILL
BE FOCUSED ACROSS RI AND EASTERN MA UNTIL ABOUT 03Z...WITH DEEP
MOISTURE PLUME MOVING OFFSHORE BY THEN. HOWEVER STRONG Q/G FORCING
FROM UPPER LEVEL JET WILL BE MOVING FROM THE MID ATLC REGION
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AROUND 06Z. THIS WILL YIELD LIGHT TO
MODERATE PRECIP...HOWEVER THE HEAVIER PRECIP SHOULD BE MOVING
OFFSHORE AS LOW LEVEL JET EXITS AS WELL.

COLD AIR ARRIVES IN WESTERN CT/MA 03Z-06Z AND THEN 06Z-09Z EASTERN
MA AND RI. HOWEVER COLUMN DRIES OUT QUICKLY SO ANY SNOW/SLEET
SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED. NEVERTHELESS COULD HAVE SOME SLICK SPOTS
INLAND DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. PREVIOUS FORECAST CAPTURES THIS
WELL SO NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE. EARLIER
DISCUSSION BELOW
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

COLD FRONT NOW PUSHING INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. WIDESPREAD RAIN
WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS LENDING TO NUMEROUS OBSERVATIONS OF
SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WITH ISOLATED GUSTS UP
TO AROUND 50 MPH. THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE RAIN IS LENDING TO
A QUARTER- TO HALF-INCH PER HOUR RAINFALL AMOUNTS...NOT SO MUCH AN
ISSUE TOWARDS FLASH FLOODING...BUT ENOUGH OVER THE COURSE OF TODAY
INTO THIS EVENING TO LEND TO RIVER AND URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.

THREATS AND ASSOCIATED IMPACTS ARE OUTLINED BELOW:

HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING...

FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR MULTIPLE POINTS ALONG THE
CONNECTICUT RIVER BASIN WITH THE EXPECTATION OF MINOR RIVER
FLOODING...PERHAPS MODERATE FLOODING AT MIDDLE HADDAM.

SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH ASSOCIATED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN
EXCESS OF 1.5-INCHES SURGING NORTH WITH THE AMPLIFYING LOW-LEVEL
FLOW /70-80 KTS PRESENTLY PER WSR-88D VERTICAL WIND PROFILERS/ IS
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH ON THE ORDER OF 3-4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL.

CONVERGENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND ALONG THE NOSE OF THE LOW-
LEVEL-JET...MOISTURE IS UNDERGOING BOTH FRONTOGENETICAL LIFT AND
STRONG DEEP-LAYER ASCENT BENEATH AN AREA OF STRONG UPPER-LEVEL
DIVERGENCE PER RRQ. THIS IS LENDING TO WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS AND EVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS /ESPECIALLY IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT OVER
NJ INTO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY TOWARDS THE BERKSHIRES/.

WHILE RAINFALL RATES HAVE BEEN ANYWHERE FROM A QUARTER TO HALF-
AN-INCH PER HOUR...THE CUMULATIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE AROUND 2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS AROUND 3 INCHES IN
A TIME-FRAME ROUGHLY AROUND 6-HOURS. THUS THE FLOOD WATCH
CONTINUES.

THE BASIS FOR THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES TO BE A FOCUS UPON ALREADY
SWOLLEN RIVERS FROM UPSTREAM SNOWMELT TAKING ON ADDITIONAL WATER
GOING INTO MINOR FLOODING...POSSIBLY INTO MODERATE FLOOD FOR THE
CONNECTICUT RIVER AT MIDDLE HADDAM.

RIVER BASINS OF CONCERN INCLUDE CONNECTICUT/MERRIMACK/PAWCATUCK.
ALSO ANTICIPATE IMPACTS TO LOCAL STREAMS/CREEKS/TRIBUTARIES...
ESPECIALLY THOSE THAT ARE NARROWER AND FLASHIER. THOSE WITH
INTERESTS ALONG AREA RIVERS SHOULD PAY ATTENTION TO THE LATEST
FORECASTS AND CURRENT WATER LEVELS.

THE FLOOD WATCH ALSO INCLUDES URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE ISSUES FOR
THE DRIVE-HOME COMMUTE PRESENTLY ONGOING FOR ALL ROADWAYS ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. PONDING OF WATER THE BIGGEST CONCERN.

PLEASE SEE THE COASTAL FLOODING SECTION BELOW FOR COASTAL FLOOD
THREATS.

WINDS...

SEVERAL LOCATIONS ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN NEW ENGLAND OBSERVING
WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS /46 MPH/. WSR-88D VERTICAL WIND
PROFILERS SHOWING WINDS AT H925 AMPLIFYING TO 70 KTS. INCREASING
AREAL COVERAGE OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS AIDING IN THE
PRECIP-DRAG / MECHANICAL MIXING OF FASTER MOMENTUM ALOFT DOWN TO
THE SURFACE. SHOULD SEE THESE WINDS CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. WIND ADVISORIES CONTINUE ACCORDINGLY.

THOSE TRAVELING OVER BRIDGES /THINKING THE SAGAMORE AND BOURNE/
SHOULD BE AWARE OF FIERCE CROSSWINDS. GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE. ALREADY RECEIVING NUMEROUS REPORTS OF TREES AND
WIRES DOWN...BLOWN TRANSFORMERS AND POWER OUTAGES. THESE IMPACTS
AND THREATS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION.

WINTRY MIX/FLASH FREEZE POTENTIAL...

TEMPERATURES QUICKLY FALLING IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS
WINDS BACK OUT OF THE WEST. ALREADY TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S ARE
ENCROACHING INTO THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY REGION. EXPECTING THIS
COLD AIR TO SURGE INTO THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...
MAINLY AROUND AND AFTER MIDNIGHT.

CONSIDERING THE STRONG DYNAMICS AND LIFT TO THE REAR OF THE COLD
FRONT...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING PRECIPITATION WITHIN
THE SHALLOW COLD-AIR MASS IN THE FORM OF A WINTRY MIX.

THUS A BRIEF CHANGEOVER TO A SNOW/SLEET MIX IS POSSIBLE...MAINLY
ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
THE ROUTE-2 CORRIDOR INCORPORATING NORTHERN MASSACHUSETTS AND
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. LIKELY TO SEE AN INCREASE IN LIKELIHOOD
ALONG WESTERN SLOPES OF HIGHER TERRAIN. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIGHT AROUND A TRACE TO PERHAPS A TENTH OR TWO...ENOUGH TO MAKE
FOR SLIPPERY CONDITIONS.

DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REAR OF THE STORM RESULTING IN THE
BACK EDGE OF PRECIP TO DISSIPATE. THIS DRIER AIR CAN BE SEEN
WITHIN THE MID-LEVELS PER WATER-VAPOR IMAGERY...BUT SHOULD ALSO
SEE THIS DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE. THUS IT IS A QUESTION AS TO
WHETHER WET SURFACES WILL FREEZE AHEAD OF EVAPORATING. EITHER
WHICH WAY...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR BLACK-ICE AND SLIPPERY
CONDITIONS THAT MAY EXIST FOR THE WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...

AN UNSEASONABLY CHILLY AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO WORK INTO THE REGION
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. ANY LEFT OVER PRECIP
SHOULD EXIT THE CAPE/ISLANDS BY MID-MORNING AT THE LASTEST AS THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE.

WESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH DURING THE
MORNING...BUT WILL DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS AIDED BY
ANOMALOUSLY COLD H85 TEMPS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BETWEEN -6C AND
-10C ALLOWING FOR EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING.

THOUGH WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES...PLENTY OF STRONG APRIL
SUNSHINE WILL OFFSET COLDER AIR ALOFT TO SOME DEGREE. ALL IN
ALL...MUCH OF THE REGION SHOULD SEE HIGHS RECOVER WELL INTO THE
40S DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY BUT UNSEASONABLY CHILLY WED NIGHT
* DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO FRI AND BECOMING MILDER INLAND
* A PERIOD OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT BUT LOW CONFIDENCE

AN ACTIVE AND SURPRESSED NORTHERN STREAM JET THIS PERIOD WILL RESULT
IN TEMPERATURES AT OR COOLER THAN NORMAL ALONG WITH A FEW CHANCES OF
SHOWERS. VERY TYPICAL PATTERN FOR MID APRIL.

DAILY DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

CHILLY AIRMASS OVER THE REGION ALONG WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WINDS. THIS WILL RESULT IN COLD TEMPS OUTSIDE OF THE
URBAN AREAS WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE 20S!

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...

STRONG /1044 MB!/ HIGH PRESSURE ADVECTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
THIS WILL EVOLVE INTO A COOL MARITIME AIRMASS FOR SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WITH LARGE TEMP DIFFERENCES FROM THE COAST TO INLAND. ACROSS
EASTERN MA THE VERY CHILLY OCEAN WATERS WITH SSTS IN THE L40S WILL
ACT LIKE A SNOWCOVER AND ENHANCE THIS COOL MARITIME AIRMASS. CHILLY
ONSHORE WINDS WILL ADVECT THIS VERY COOL AND SHALLOW MARITIME
AIRMASS INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN. THEREFORE ONLY EXPECTING HIGHS IN
THE 40S OVER EASTERN MA...MEANWHILE STRONG APRIL SUN HEATS UP THE
INTERIOR INTO THE 50S. AIRMASS CONTINUES TO MODIFY FRI WITH HIGHS 45-
50 EASTERN MA AND 55-60 WELL INLAND.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...

MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE ON AMPLITUDE AND INTERACTION OF NORTHERN
AND SOUTHERN STREAM WAVES. 12Z GFS REMAINS MORE ROBUST AND PHASING
THAN THE 12Z ECMWF. THUS THE GFS IS THE WETTER SOLUTION OF THE TWO.
ENSEMBLES INDICATE MORE STREAM SEPARATION AND ARE SLOWER PHASING THE
STREAMS BUT THIS IS SOMEWHAT TYPICAL GIVEN THE LOWER RESOLUTION OF
THE ENSEMBLES.

TEMPS LIKELY REMAIN NEAR NORMAL...HIGHS IN THE 50S.

SUNDAY/MONDAY/TUESDAY...

AS EXPECTED LOTS OF TIMING ISSUES HERE GIVEN THE FAST FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN STATES. GIVEN THIS FLOW REGIME AND TIME RANGE HERE WILL
FOLLOW A MODEL BLEND WHICH YIELDS TEMPS NEAR NORMAL AND A RISK OF
SHOWERS IN THE MON NIGHT/TUE TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

7 PM UPDATE...

NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS TAFS. COLD FRONT INTO CT RVR VLY AT
7 PM AND CONTINUING TO MAKE STEADY EASTWARD PROGRESS. EARLIER
DISCUSSION BELOW.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH +RA CONTINUING THROUGH THE EVENING.
STRONG S WINDS CONTINUING WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS WITH A
FEW LOCATIONS UP TO AROUND 50 KTS /ESPECIALLY FOR E-S MA AND RI/.
LLWS IMPACTS OVER ALL TERMINALS WITH 60-70 KT 2 KFT AGL.

COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE TERMINALS AROUND MIDNIGHT. WILL SEE
WINDS BACK WEST REMAINING GUSTY UP TO 40 KTS. CONDITIONS QUICKLY
IMPROVING TO VFR. MAY SEE RAIN TRANSITION TO SNOW/SLEET BRIEFLY
WITH MINOR ACCUMS. BEST CHANCES OVER NW MA INTO S NH. PRECIP
COMING TO AN END AS WINDS DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY...VFR VSBYS LIKELY WITH MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE...HIGHEST PROBABILITY ACROSS RI AND EASTERN MA.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE BUT
CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW.

SUNDAY...IMPROVING TREND WITH VFR LIKELY ALONG WITH INCREASING NW
WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

S WINDS OVER THE WATERS GUSTING IN EXCESS OF GALE FORCE THROUGH
THE EVENING WITH WAVES OF 10 TO 12 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS. RAIN
AND FOG AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL NET VISIBILITY ISSUES OVER THE
WATERS DOWN TO A MILE OR TWO AT TIMES. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTH WATERS.

COLD FRONT SWEEPS THE WATERS AROUND MIDNIGHT BEHIND WHICH WINDS
WILL BACK OUT OF THE WEST REMAINING GUSTY UP TO 40 KTS. CONDITIONS
CLEARING QUICKLY AS WINDS DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. WAVE
ENERGY WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH...SO WHILE GALES CONCLUDE...SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

WED NIGHT THRU FRI...TREND HERE WILL BE DECREASING SOUTHERLY SWELLS
WITH INCREASING ENE WIND WAVES. MAINLY DRY WITH MARITIME AIRMASS
OVER THE WATERS COURTSEY OF 1040 MB HIGH ACROSS NEWFOUNDLAND.

FRI NIGHT AND SAT...LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST WITH LOW PRES
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH AND ANOTHER FROM THE GREAT LAKES. DILEMMA
WILL BE HOW MUCH SEPARATION BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS OR IF LOWS WILL
MERGE INTO ONE STRONGER SYSTEM. STILL TOO EARLY TO SAY.

SUNDAY...IMPROVING TRENDS WITH LOW PRES STRENGTHENING WELL EAST OF
NEW ENGLAND FOLLOWED BY A MODEST NW WIND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE WATERS GUSTING 30 TO 40 MPH WILL
YIELD AN AVERAGE 1.5 FOOT SURGE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. COMBINED
WITH HIGH TIDE AROUND 9-10 PM /NOT ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH/...THERE
IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SPLASHOVER ALONG LOW-LYING AREAS. A COASTAL
FLOOD STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED ACCORDINGLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
THREAT AND IMPACTS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MAZ002>021-026.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MAZ004>007-
     012>024-026.
NH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR NHZ011-012-015.
RI...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR RIZ001>007.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR RIZ001>008.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ230>234-236-250-
     251.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-256.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
MARINE...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...RMT




000
FXUS61 KALY 152217
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
617 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST. THE SUN WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY WITH COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. A
GRADUAL WARM UP TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONING NOW SO QUICK UPDATE FOR THE TIMING OF
THE CHANGEOVER.

BASED ON THE DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW...AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN AND IN
THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY SHOULD HAVE THE BEST CHANCES AT 1 TO 4
INCHES...WITH VALLEY AREAS TO THE EAST PROBABLY SEEING DUSTINGS AS
DOWNSLOPE FLOW DISRUPTS THE HIGHER SNOWFALL RATES IN VALLEYS.
ALSO...THE SNOW IS TIMED MAINLY AFTER DARK WHEN THE SNOW CAN
ACCUMULATE BEST. IT WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW...BUT
AGAIN...ENOUGH FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE REGION...ON
GRASSY AREAS. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE BREEZY ALL
NIGHT...AND BASED ON UPSTREAM CONDITIONS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
FALL INTO THE 20S...SOME TEENS IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BREEZY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN...BUT PROSPECTS FOR QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE LOOKS GOOD.
STRONG SUN SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES REACH THE LOWER TO MID
40S...BUT 30S IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS. LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 20S...WITH TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
WARM ADVECTION. THERE SHOULD BE A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY DURING THE DAY
AND MOSTLY CLEAR AT NIGHT...OTHER THAN SOME PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS
FROM TIME TO TIME.

HIGHS THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 50 IN NORTHERN AREAS TO
LOWER TO MID 50S IN MOST OTHER AREAS. HIGHS FRIDAY SHOULD BE IN
THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A PERIOD OF DRY IN BETWEEN FAST-MOVING SYSTEMS MARKS THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.  SHOWERS MOVE IN WITH A COLD FRONT HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND...BEING CONFINED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO SATURDAY TO
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY.  THIS
WILL BE A WEAKER COLD FRONT THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE.  TEMPERATURES
WILL GET DOWN TO FROM AROUND 30 DEGREES IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND
GREENS...TO THE UPPER 30S DOWN THE HUDSON AND MOHAWK VALLEYS.  THIS
WILL RESULT IN A QUICK MIX-OVER OR CHANGEOVER TO SNOW APPROACHING
DAYBREAK SATURDAY AS THE SHOWERS CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST.

EARLY DAY HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S IN THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO AROUND 60 DEGREES IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.  CLOUDS AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL HELP SUPPRESS A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH LOW READINGS FROM THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S SATURDAY
NIGHT...SIMILAR TO FRIDAY NIGHT.  THIS COULD TURN ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...AND NORTH AND WEST OF THE
SARATOGA REGION BACK TO A MIX OR SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE ALL IS ENDED BY
DAYBREAK.

SUNDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 40S IN
THE GREENS AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO AROUND 60 DEGREES DOWN THE
HUDSON VALLEY.  THE DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
MORE OF THE SAME FOR LOW TEMPERATURES.  THE BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING FROM JAMES BAY TO THE GULF COAST SHIFTS EAST...AND A WEAK
LOW BRINGS IN THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT...THOUGH
IT IS EVEN LESS IMPRESSIVE THAN THE ONE BEFORE IT.  THIS WILL LIKELY
BE AN ALL-RAIN EVENT AS TEMPERATURES EVERYWHERE ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING WITH A WARM FRONT EVOLVING AND LIFTING NORTH
TOWARD OUR FORECAST AREA.  HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S AND
LOWER 60S WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS THE REGION EARLY IN THE TAF
PERIOD BRINGING MVFR FLYING CONDITIONS TO ALL THE TAF SITES. VFR
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY 06Z AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION.

THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...COLD FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
PREDOMINATELY MVFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY THESE
SHOWERS...EXCEPT FOR INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF IFR AT KPSF.

SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL RANGE FROM 12-18 KNOTS
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 25-30 KNOTS. AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH THE REGION IN THE 21Z-00Z TIMEFRAME...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE NORTHWEST BUT REMAIN GUSTY AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25
KNOTS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO DRAG DRAMATICALLY COLDER AIR INTO THE
REGION IN ITS WAKE...AS TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET INTO THE LOW AND
MID 30S BY 00Z. WHILE THE PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD REMAIN
RAIN...THERE MAY BE A LIGHT MIXTURE OF SNOW AND SLEET AROUND
00Z...BUT EXPECT THIS TRANSITION TO OCCUR AFTER 00Z AT THIS TIME.

TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BY 00Z THE TAF SITES WILL BE TRANSITIONING
TO A SNOW/SLEET/RAIN MIX AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO FALL BEFORE
BECOMING ALL SNOW BY 03Z. THERE WILL NOT BE AS MUCH MOISTURE BEHIND
THE FRONT SO HAVE MENTIONED JUST -SHSN IN THE TAFS WITH A COATING TO
PERHAPS AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KGFL AND
KPSF.

SKIES WILL RAPIDLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 06Z AND BECOME SKC
BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS...BEFORE INCREASING
SLIGHTLY TO END THE TAF PERIOD AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25
KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
COLD AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE SUN WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. A GRADUAL WARM UP TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE.

ALL AREAS RECEIVED A HALF INCH TO OVER AN INCH OF RAIN IN THE LAST
24 HOURS. SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...EASTERN CATSKILLS...SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND
BERKSHIRES TONIGHT.

RH VALUES SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 60 PERCENT AND 90 PERCENT ONCE
PRECIPITATION ENDS TONIGHT...ALONG WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25
MPH AND GUSTS TO 35 MPH.

SUNSHINE RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH A BRISK WEST WIND 10 TO
20 MPH...BUT GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WEDNESDAY SHOULD FALL TO THE 25 TO
35 PERCENT RANGE.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT
WINDS LESS THAN 15 MPH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR THE ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY/LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA
REGION CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TACONICS...SOUTHERN VERMONT AND THE
NORTHERN BERKSHIRES.

WIDESPREAD RAIN OF A HALF INCH TO INCH AND A HALF ALONG WITH SNOW
MELT HAVE PRODUCED SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF IN THE WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED
ALONG SOME RIVER POINTS IN THOSE AREAS AS SOME PLACES COULD REACH
MODERATE FLOOD STAGE...POSSIBLY MAJOR FLOOD STAGE AT RIVERBANK.
ADDITIONAL RUNOFF COULD OCCUR INTO THE WALLOOMSAC AND HOOSIC
RIVERS WITH WATER RISES APPROACHING FLOOD STAGE IN SOUTHERN
VERMONT AND WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS.

AS COLDER AIR POURS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...RAIN WILL TURN TO
SNOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...PRODUCING
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...THE PRECIPITATION
COULD EVEN END AS SNOW SHOWERS WITH A COATING IN PLACES.

THIS COLDER AIR WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING EVERYWHERE
OVERNIGHT...THUS SLOWING DOWN THE RUNOFF. HOWEVER...LARGE STEM
RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND NOT CREST UNTIL WEDNESDAY.

DRY WEATHER IS IN STORE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR NYZ032-033-038>043-
     050-053-054-082>084.
MA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MAZ001.
VT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS








000
FXUS61 KALY 152043
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
424 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST. THE SUN WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY WITH COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. A
GRADUAL WARM UP TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL EXIT EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
EVENING...BUT SOME PRECIPITATION IS LINGERING BEHIND THE FRONT.
THERE IS A BREAK BETWEEN THE RAIN AND A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW IN
CENTRAL NY...SO THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF SPRINKLES AND VERY LIGHT
RAIN AND SNOW MIXED BEFORE THE BAND OF SNOW SHIFTS EAST.

BASED ON THE DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW...AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN AND IN
THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY SHOULD HAVE THE BEST CHANCES AT 1 TO 4
INCHES...WITH VALLEY AREAS TO THE EAST PROBABLY SEEING DUSTINGS AS
DOWNSLOPE FLOW DISRUPTS THE HIGHER SNOWFALL RATES IN VALLEYS.
ALSO...THE SNOW IS TIMED MAINLY AFTER DARK WHEN THE SNOW CAN
ACCUMULATE BEST. IT WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW...BUT
AGAIN...ENOUGH FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE REGION...ON
GRASSY AREAS. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE BREEZY ALL
NIGHT...AND BASED ON UPSTREAM CONDITIONS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
FALL INTO THE 20S...SOME TEENS IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BREEZY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN...BUT PROSPECTS FOR QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE LOOKS GOOD.
STRONG SUN SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES REACH THE LOWER TO MID
40S...BUT 30S IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS. LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 20S...WITH TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
WARM ADVECTION. THERE SHOULD BE A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY DURING THE DAY
AND MOSTLY CLEAR AT NIGHT...OTHER THAN SOME PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS
FROM TIME TO TIME.

HIGHS THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 50 IN NORTHERN AREAS TO
LOWER TO MID 50S IN MOST OTHER AREAS. HIGHS FRIDAY SHOULD BE IN
THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A PERIOD OF DRY IN BETWEEN FAST-MOVING SYSTEMS MARKS THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.  SHOWERS MOVE IN WITH A COLD FRONT HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND...BEING CONFINED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO SATURDAY TO
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY.  THIS
WILL BE A WEAKER COLD FRONT THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE.  TEMPERATURES
WILL GET DOWN TO FROM AROUND 30 DEGREES IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND
GREENS...TO THE UPPER 30S DOWN THE HUDSON AND MOHAWK VALLEYS.  THIS
WILL RESULT IN A QUICK MIX-OVER OR CHANGEOVER TO SNOW APPROACHING
DAYBREAK SATURDAY AS THE SHOWERS CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST.

EARLY DAY HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S IN THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO AROUND 60 DEGREES IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.  CLOUDS AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL HELP SUPPRESS A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH LOW READINGS FROM THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S SATURDAY
NIGHT...SIMILAR TO FRIDAY NIGHT.  THIS COULD TURN ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...AND NORTH AND WEST OF THE
SARATOGA REGION BACK TO A MIX OR SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE ALL IS ENDED BY
DAYBREAK.

SUNDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 40S IN
THE GREENS AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO AROUND 60 DEGREES DOWN THE
HUDSON VALLEY.  THE DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
MORE OF THE SAME FOR LOW TEMPERATURES.  THE BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING FROM JAMES BAY TO THE GULF COAST SHIFTS EAST...AND A WEAK
LOW BRINGS IN THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT...THOUGH
IT IS EVEN LESS IMPRESSIVE THAN THE ONE BEFORE IT.  THIS WILL LIKELY
BE AN ALL-RAIN EVENT AS TEMPERATURES EVERYWHERE ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING WITH A WARM FRONT EVOLVING AND LIFTING NORTH
TOWARD OUR FORECAST AREA.  HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S AND
LOWER 60S WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS THE REGION EARLY IN THE TAF
PERIOD BRINGING MVFR FLYING CONDITIONS TO ALL THE TAF SITES. VFR
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY 06Z AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION.

THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...COLD FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
PREDOMINATELY MVFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY THESE
SHOWERS...EXCEPT FOR INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF IFR AT KPSF.

SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL RANGE FROM 12-18 KNOTS
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 25-30 KNOTS. AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH THE REGION IN THE 21Z-00Z TIMEFRAME...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE NORTHWEST BUT REMAIN GUSTY AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25
KNOTS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO DRAG DRAMATICALLY COLDER AIR INTO THE
REGION IN ITS WAKE...AS TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET INTO THE LOW AND
MID 30S BY 00Z. WHILE THE PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD REMAIN
RAIN...THERE MAY BE A LIGHT MIXTURE OF SNOW AND SLEET AROUND
00Z...BUT EXPECT THIS TRANSITION TO OCCUR AFTER 00Z AT THIS TIME.

TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BY 00Z THE TAF SITES WILL BE TRANSITIONING
TO A SNOW/SLEET/RAIN MIX AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO FALL BEFORE
BECOMING ALL SNOW BY 03Z. THERE WILL NOT BE AS MUCH MOISTURE BEHIND
THE FRONT SO HAVE MENTIONED JUST -SHSN IN THE TAFS WITH A COATING TO
PERHAPS AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KGFL AND
KPSF.

SKIES WILL RAPIDLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 06Z AND BECOME SKC
BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS...BEFORE INCREASING
SLIGHTLY TO END THE TAF PERIOD AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25
KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
COLD AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE SUN WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. A GRADUAL WARM UP TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE.

ALL AREAS RECEIVED A HALF INCH TO OVER AN INCH OF RAIN IN THE LAST
24 HOURS. SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...EASTERN CATSKILLS...SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND
BERKSHIRES TONIGHT.

RH VALUES SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 60 PERCENT AND 90 PERCENT ONCE
PRECIPITATION ENDS TONIGHT...ALONG WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25
MPH AND GUSTS TO 35 MPH.

SUNSHINE RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH A BRISK WEST WIND 10 TO
20 MPH...BUT GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WEDNESDAY SHOULD FALL TO THE 25 TO
35 PERCENT RANGE.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT
WINDS LESS THAN 15 MPH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR THE ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY/LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA
REGION CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TACONICS...SOUTHERN VERMONT AND THE
NORTHERN BERKSHIRES.

WIDESPREAD RAIN OF A HALF INCH TO INCH AND A HALF ALONG WITH SNOW
MELT HAVE PRODUCED SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF IN THE WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED
ALONG SOME RIVER POINTS IN THOSE AREAS AS SOME PLACES COULD REACH
MODERATE FLOOD STAGE...POSSIBLY MAJOR FLOOD STAGE AT RIVERBANK.
ADDITIONAL RUNOFF COULD OCCUR INTO THE WALLOOMSAC AND HOOSIC
RIVERS WITH WATER RISES APPROACHING FLOOD STAGE IN SOUTHERN
VERMONT AND WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS.

AS COLDER AIR POURS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...RAIN WILL TURN TO
SNOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...PRODUCING
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...THE PRECIPITATION
COULD EVEN END AS SNOW SHOWERS WITH A COATING IN PLACES.

THIS COLDER AIR WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING EVERYWHERE
OVERNIGHT...THUS SLOWING DOWN THE RUNOFF. HOWEVER...LARGE STEM
RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND NOT CREST UNTIL WEDNESDAY.

DRY WEATHER IS IN STORE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR NYZ032-033-038>043-
     050-053-054-082>084.
MA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MAZ001.
VT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS











000
FXUS61 KBOX 152032
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
432 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

SHARP COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT WILL BRING A
MIX OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY RAIN...AND EVEN A BRIEF CHANGE
TO A WINTRY MIX BEFORE ENDING EARLY ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
IMMEDIATE FOLLOWING BRINGING DRY BUT UNSEASONABLE CONDITIONS FOR
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THURSDAY INTO
THE FIRST PART OF FRIDAY WITH MODERATING AFTERNOON TEMPS INLAND...
BUT REMAINING CHILLY ALONG THE COAST. LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING A
ROUND OR TWO OF RAIN SHOWERS SOMETIME FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
THEN DRY AND COOLER SUNDAY/MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

430 PM UPDATE...

COLD FRONT NOW PUSHING INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. WIDESPREAD RAIN
WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS LENDING TO NUMEROUS OBSERVATIONS OF
SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WITH ISOLATED GUSTS UP
TO AROUND 50 MPH. THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE RAIN IS LENDING TO
A QUARTER- TO HALF-INCH PER HOUR RAINFALL AMOUNTS...NOT SO MUCH AN
ISSUE TOWARDS FLASH FLOODING...BUT ENOUGH OVER THE COURSE OF TODAY
INTO THIS EVENING TO LEND TO RIVER AND URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.

THREATS AND ASSOCIATED IMPACTS ARE OUTLINED BELOW:

HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING...

FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR MULTIPLE POINTS ALONG THE
CONNECTICUT RIVER BASIN WITH THE EXPECTATION OF MINOR RIVER
FLOODING...PERHAPS MODERATE FLOODING AT MIDDLE HADDAM.

SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH ASSOCIATED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN
EXCESS OF 1.5-INCHES SURGING NORTH WITH THE AMPLIFYING LOW-LEVEL
FLOW /70-80 KTS PRESENTLY PER WSR-88D VERTICAL WIND PROFILERS/ IS
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH ON THE ORDER OF 3-4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL.

CONVERGENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND ALONG THE NOSE OF THE LOW-
LEVEL-JET...MOISTURE IS UNDERGOING BOTH FRONTOGENETICAL LIFT AND
STRONG DEEP-LAYER ASCENT BENEATH AN AREA OF STRONG UPPER-LEVEL
DIVERGENCE PER RRQ. THIS IS LENDING TO WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS AND EVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS /ESPECIALLY IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT OVER
NJ INTO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY TOWARDS THE BERKSHIRES/.

WHILE RAINFALL RATES HAVE BEEN ANYWHERE FROM A QUARTER TO HALF-
AN-INCH PER HOUR...THE CUMULATIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE AROUND 2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS AROUND 3 INCHES IN
A TIME-FRAME ROUGHLY AROUND 6-HOURS. THUS THE FLOOD WATCH
CONTINUES.

THE BASIS FOR THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES TO BE A FOCUS UPON ALREADY
SWOLLEN RIVERS FROM UPSTREAM SNOWMELT TAKING ON ADDITIONAL WATER
GOING INTO MINOR FLOODING...POSSIBLY INTO MODERATE FLOOD FOR THE
CONNECTICUT RIVER AT MIDDLE HADDAM.

RIVER BASINS OF CONCERN INCLUDE CONNECTICUT/MERRIMACK/PAWCATUCK.
ALSO ANTICIPATE IMPACTS TO LOCAL STREAMS/CREEKS/TRIBUTARIES...
ESPECIALLY THOSE THAT ARE NARROWER AND FLASHIER. THOSE WITH
INTERESTS ALONG AREA RIVERS SHOULD PAY ATTENTION TO THE LATEST
FORECASTS AND CURRENT WATER LEVELS.

THE FLOOD WATCH ALSO INCLUDES URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE ISSUES FOR
THE DRIVE-HOME COMMUTE PRESENTLY ONGOING FOR ALL ROADWAYS ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. PONDING OF WATER THE BIGGEST CONCERN.

PLEASE SEE THE COASTAL FLOODING SECTION BELOW FOR COASTAL FLOOD
THREATS.

WINDS...

SEVERAL LOCATIONS ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN NEW ENGLAND OBSERVING
WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS /46 MPH/. WSR-88D VERTICAL WIND
PROFILERS SHOWING WINDS AT H925 AMPLIFYING TO 70 KTS. INCREASING
AREAL COVERAGE OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS AIDING IN THE
PRECIP-DRAG / MECHANICAL MIXING OF FASTER MOMENTUM ALOFT DOWN TO
THE SURFACE. SHOULD SEE THESE WINDS CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. WIND ADVISORIES CONTINUE ACCORDINGLY.

THOSE TRAVELING OVER BRIDGES /THINKING THE SAGAMORE AND BOURNE/
SHOULD BE AWARE OF FIERCE CROSSWINDS. GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE. ALREADY RECEIVING NUMEROUS REPORTS OF TREES AND
WIRES DOWN...BLOWN TRANSFORMERS AND POWER OUTAGES. THESE IMPACTS
AND THREATS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION.

WINTRY MIX/FLASH FREEZE POTENTIAL...

TEMPERATURES QUICKLY FALLING IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS
WINDS BACK OUT OF THE WEST. ALREADY TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S ARE
ENCROACHING INTO THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY REGION. EXPECTING THIS
COLD AIR TO SURGE INTO THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...
MAINLY AROUND AND AFTER MIDNIGHT.

CONSIDERING THE STRONG DYNAMICS AND LIFT TO THE REAR OF THE COLD
FRONT...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING PRECIPITATION WITHIN
THE SHALLOW COLD-AIR MASS IN THE FORM OF A WINTRY MIX.

THUS A BRIEF CHANGEOVER TO A SNOW/SLEET MIX IS POSSIBLE...MAINLY
ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
THE ROUTE-2 CORRIDOR INCORPORATING NORTHERN MASSACHUSETTS AND
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. LIKELY TO SEE AN INCREASE IN LIKELIHOOD
ALONG WESTERN SLOPES OF HIGHER TERRAIN. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIGHT AROUND A TRACE TO PERHAPS A TENTH OR TWO...ENOUGH TO MAKE
FOR SLIPPERY CONDITIONS.

DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REAR OF THE STORM RESULTING IN THE
BACK EDGE OF PRECIP TO DISSIPATE. THIS DRIER AIR CAN BE SEEN
WITHIN THE MID-LEVELS PER WATER-VAPOR IMAGERY...BUT SHOULD ALSO
SEE THIS DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE. THUS IT IS A QUESTION AS TO
WHETHER WET SURFACES WILL FREEZE AHEAD OF EVAPORATING. EITHER
WHICH WAY...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR BLACK-ICE AND SLIPPERY
CONDITIONS THAT MAY EXIST FOR THE WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...

AN UNSEASONABLY CHILLY AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO WORK INTO THE REGION
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. ANY LEFT OVER PRECIP
SHOULD EXIT THE CAPE/ISLANDS BY MID-MORNING AT THE LASTEST AS THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE.

WESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH DURING THE
MORNING...BUT WILL DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS AIDED BY
ANOMALOUSLY COLD H85 TEMPS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BETWEEN -6C AND
-10C ALLOWING FOR EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING.

THOUGH WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES...PLENTY OF STRONG APRIL
SUNSHINE WILL OFFSET COLDER AIR ALOFT TO SOME DEGREE. ALL IN
ALL...MUCH OF THE REGION SHOULD SEE HIGHS RECOVER WELL INTO THE
40S DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY BUT UNSEASONABLY CHILLY WED NIGHT
* DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO FRI AND BECOMING MILDER INLAND
* A PERIOD OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT BUT LOW CONFIDENCE

AN ACTIVE AND SURPRESSED NORTHERN STREAM JET THIS PERIOD WILL RESULT
IN TEMPERATURES AT OR COOLER THAN NORMAL ALONG WITH A FEW CHANCES OF
SHOWERS. VERY TYPICAL PATTERN FOR MID APRIL.

DAILY DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

CHILLY AIRMASS OVER THE REGION ALONG WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WINDS. THIS WILL RESULT IN COLD TEMPS OUTSIDE OF THE
URBAN AREAS WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE 20S!

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...

STRONG /1044 MB!/ HIGH PRESSURE ADVECTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
THIS WILL EVOLVE INTO A COOL MARITIME AIRMASS FOR SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WITH LARGE TEMP DIFFERENCES FROM THE COAST TO INLAND. ACROSS
EASTERN MA THE VERY CHILLY OCEAN WATERS WITH SSTS IN THE L40S WILL
ACT LIKE A SNOWCOVER AND ENHANCE THIS COOL MARITIME AIRMASS. CHILLY
ONSHORE WINDS WILL ADVECT THIS VERY COOL AND SHALLOW MARITIME
AIRMASS INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN. THEREFORE ONLY EXPECTING HIGHS IN
THE 40S OVER EASTERN MA...MEANWHILE STRONG APRIL SUN HEATS UP THE
INTERIOR INTO THE 50S. AIRMASS CONTINUES TO MODIFY FRI WITH HIGHS 45-
50 EASTERN MA AND 55-60 WELL INLAND.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...

MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE ON AMPLITUDE AND INTERACTION OF NORTHERN
AND SOUTHERN STREAM WAVES. 12Z GFS REMAINS MORE ROBUST AND PHASING
THAN THE 12Z ECMWF. THUS THE GFS IS THE WETTER SOLUTION OF THE TWO.
ENSEMBLES INDICATE MORE STREAM SEPARATION AND ARE SLOWER PHASING THE
STREAMS BUT THIS IS SOMEWHAT TYPICAL GIVEN THE LOWER RESOLUTION OF
THE ENSEMBLES.

TEMPS LIKELY REMAIN NEAR NORMAL...HIGHS IN THE 50S.

SUNDAY/MONDAY/TUESDAY...

AS EXPECTED LOTS OF TIMING ISSUES HERE GIVEN THE FAST FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN STATES. GIVEN THIS FLOW REGIME AND TIME RANGE HERE WILL
FOLLOW A MODEL BLEND WHICH YIELDS TEMPS NEAR NORMAL AND A RISK OF
SHOWERS IN THE MON NIGHT/TUE TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH +RA CONTINUING THROUGH THE EVENING.
STRONG S WINDS CONTINUING WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS WITH A
FEW LOCATIONS UP TO AROUND 50 KTS /ESPECIALLY FOR E-S MA AND RI/.
LLWS IMPACTS OVER ALL TERMINALS WITH 60-70 KT 2 KFT AGL.

COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE TERMINALS AROUND MIDNIGHT. WILL SEE
WINDS BACK WEST REMAINING GUSTY UP TO 40 KTS. CONDITIONS QUICKLY
IMPROVING TO VFR. MAY SEE RAIN TRANSITION TO SNOW/SLEET BRIEFLY
WITH MINOR ACCUMS. BEST CHANCES OVER NW MA INTO S NH. PRECIP
COMING TO AN END AS WINDS DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY...VFR VSBYS LIKELY WITH MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE...HIGHEST PROBABILITY ACROSS RI AND EASTERN MA.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE BUT
CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW.

SUNDAY...IMPROVING TREND WITH VFR LIKELY ALONG WITH INCREASING NW
WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

S WINDS OVER THE WATERS GUSTING IN EXCESS OF GALE FORCE THROUGH
THE EVENING WITH WAVES OF 10 TO 12 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS. RAIN
AND FOG AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL NET VISIBILITY ISSUES OVER THE
WATERS DOWN TO A MILE OR TWO AT TIMES. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTH WATERS.

COLD FRONT SWEEPS THE WATERS AROUND MIDNIGHT BEHIND WHICH WINDS
WILL BACK OUT OF THE WEST REMAINING GUSTY UP TO 40 KTS. CONDITIONS
CLEARING QUICKLY AS WINDS DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. WAVE
ENERGY WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH...SO WHILE GALES CONCLUDE...SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

WED NIGHT THRU FRI...TREND HERE WILL BE DECREASING SOUTHERLY SWELLS
WITH INCREASING ENE WIND WAVES. MAINLY DRY WITH MARITIME AIRMASS
OVER THE WATERS COURTSEY OF 1040 MB HIGH ACROSS NEWFOUNDLAND.

FRI NIGHT AND SAT...LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST WITH LOW PRES
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH AND ANOTHER FROM THE GREAT LAKES. DILEMMA
WILL BE HOW MUCH SEPARATION BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS OR IF LOWS WILL
MERGE INTO ONE STRONGER SYSTEM. STILL TOO EARLY TO SAY.

SUNDAY...IMPROVING TRENDS WITH LOW PRES STRENGTHENING WELL EAST OF
NEW ENGLAND FOLLOWED BY A MODEST NW WIND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE WATERS GUSTING 30 TO 40 MPH WILL
YIELD AN AVERAGE 1.5 FOOT SURGE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. COMBINED
WITH HIGH TIDE AROUND 9-10 PM /NOT ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH/...THERE
IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SPLASHOVER ALONG LOW-LYING AREAS. A COASTAL
FLOOD STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED ACCORDINGLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
THREAT AND IMPACTS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MAZ002>021-026.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MAZ004>007-
     012>024-026.
NH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR NHZ011-012-015.
RI...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR RIZ001>007.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR RIZ001>008.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ230>234-236-250-
     251.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-256.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ254-255.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...SIPPRELL
MARINE...NOCERA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...SIPPRELL




000
FXUS61 KOKX 152027
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
427 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TRI-STATE AREA BY EARLY
THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH THEN LIFTS UP INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND UP INTO THE NORTH
ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS ALONG A STALLED
FRONT TO THE SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND PASSES EAST OF THE REGION ON
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEFORE SHIFTING
OFFSHORE WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A STRONG COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY WITH OBS BOTH AT SWF AND MGJ SUPPORTING A WIND SHIFT TO
THE WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY FALL SOME 10 TO 20 DEGREES
WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE FRONT WILL
PASS THROUGH THE NYC METRO AROUND 6 PM AND EASTERN LI/SE CT BY 8
PM.

PRIOR TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...THERE WILL BE MULTIPLE BANDS OF
SHOWERS WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL, ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND CT
THE CONVECTION IS MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG THERMAL FORCING
AIDED BY A 65 TO 70 KT LOW-LEVEL JET. TO THE WEST...THE BAND
ACROSS NW NJ AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY IS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG
FRONTAL FORCING. WHILE THERE IS NO SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...THERE
IS ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED WIND GUSTS
UP TO 50 MPH IN THE STRONGEST CONVECTION.

POST-FRONTAL PCPN IS THEN FILLING IN ACROSS EASTERN PA IN CONJUNCTION
WITH AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH AND THE RRQ OF THE UPPER JET. BY
THE TIME THE EVENT IS OVER LATE TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS WED...MUCH OF THE REGION WILL HAVE SEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
RAINFALL.

STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR THE TRANSITION OVER TO
SOME WET SNOW THIS EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS TO OCCUR
WILL BE IN THE NW SUBURBS WHERE A COATING TO AN INCH OF SNOW WILL
BE POSSIBLE. THE TIMING OF THE CHANGEOVER WILL BE CRITICAL AS TO
THE AMOUNTS. SHOULD THIS TRANSITION OCCUR EARLIER THAN FORECAST...
THERE COULD BE AS MUCH AS 2 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOWFALL. THE CHANGEOVER
WILL FIRST HAPPEN ACROSS ORANGE COUNTY IN NEW YORK AND PASSAIC
COUNTY NJ AROUND 8 PM. A COATING ACROSS EASTERN AREAS WHILE
UNLIKELY...IS STILL A POSSIBILITY.

GUSTY SOUTH WIND EARLY WILL TURN AROUND TO THE NW THIS EVENING
WITH GUSTS OF 40 YO 45 MPH. THERE COULD EVEN BE A FEW HIGHER GUSTS
RIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT DUE TO STRONG PRESSURE RISES.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND FREEZING. THUS...
THE FREEZE WARNING HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO ALSO INCLUDE NYC...LONG
ISLAND...AND COASTAL CT. THIS IS IN ADDITION TO MOST OF NE NJ AND
ROCKLAND AND WESTCHESTER COUNTIES IN NEW YORK. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
TRENDING COLDER. BASED ON THE ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIR MASS...USED MODEL
2M TEMPS FOR LOWS...WHICH WAS SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW MOS GUIDANCE.
LOWS WILL BE CLOSE TO RECORDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ON WED WITH AN
ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIR MASS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER
40S...WHICH IS SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. GUSTY NW WINDS
WILL LINGER INTO THE AFT...MAKING IT FEEL MORE LIKE THE MID AND
UPPER 30S.

WED NIGHT WILL FEATURE ANOTHER POSSIBLE RECORD COLD NIGHT WITH
MOST LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE NYC METRO DROPPING BELOW FREEZING.
ANOTHER FREEZE IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE
REGION WILL BE ON THE WEST SIDE OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY SHIFTS INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES BY FRIDAY. THIS PATTERN SETS UP AN EAST TO
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS. THIS ONSHORE FLOW SERVES TO
KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S
AND LOWER 50S ON THURSDAY AND LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S ON FRIDAY.
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING COULD PROMOTE DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
ZONES. HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DURING THIS TIME.

THE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES APPROACHES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG A STALLED
FRONT OFFSHORE. MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE KEEPS THE LOW FAR ENOUGH
OFFSHORE TO PREVENT A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT. THE MODELS DIFFER ON
THE AMPLITUDE...TIMING...AND PLACEMENT OF THE VORT ENERGY WITHIN THE
UPPER TROUGH HOWEVER. AT THE VERY LEAST...SATURDAY WILL BE MOSTLY
CLOUDY AND HAVE CONTINUED A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
PASSAGE. DUE TO CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION...TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
BELOW NORMAL IN THE 50S.

A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW SETS UP ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUES INTO MONDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN DURING THIS TIME WITH DRY
CONDITIONS. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON
SUNDAY AND THEN WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL ON MONDAY.

A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH ON TUESDAY
BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. HIGH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AT THIS TIME
SO HAVE ONLY INCLUDED CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR
NORMAL IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH EXTREME WESTERN TERMINALS CURRENTLY...WILL
CONTINUES MOVING THROUGH THE REST OF THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING.
WIDE VARIATIONS IN CONDITIONS. BREAKS IN SHOWERS WILL SEE SOME VSBY
AND/OR CIG IMPROVEMENT...TO VFR IN SOME CASES. OTHERWISE...IFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY WITH THE HEAVIER BAND OF
PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO NORTHEAST NJ. LIFR STILL POSSIBLE IN THESE
HEAVIER SHOWERS. AS OF 20Z...KJFK VIS DOWN 1/2SM. DO NOT THINK THIS
WILL BE PREVAILING...BUT PUT IN A TEMPO GROUP THROUGH 00Z AS FLOW
RIGHT OFF THE OCEAN IS LIKELY LEADING TO THE LOWER VSBY HERE. AS THE
FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY...VSBY SHOULD IMPROVE.

GUSTS 30-35 KTS IN THE CITY TERMINALS EARLY THIS EVENING. OME
ISOLATED GUSTS CLOSE TO 40KT POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL S -SW-
NW DURING THIS TIME AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH 22Z-03Z. WINDS WILL
TAPER OFF SLIGHTLY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...THEN INCREASE AGAIN
AS THE WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW. GUSTS UP TO AROUND 35 KTS LIKELY
TONIGHT WITH AN ISOLATED GUST TO 40 KTS POSSIBLE.

LLWS ISSUES PERSISTING THROUGH LATE AFTN...WITH GENERALLY 50-60
KTS BETWEEN 1-2KFT. SLIGHTLY HIGHER LLWS OF UP TO 65 KT FOR
EASTERN SECTIONS SUCH AS KISP AND KGON AS LOW LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENS OVER THESE AREAS THIS MORNING. AS THE JET PUSHES EAST
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT...LLWS WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: LIFR CONDITIONS PSBL THIS AFTN WITH HEAVIER
RAIN...VFR PSBL IN BREAKS IN SHOWERS. LLWS SHOULD END AFTER
FROPA...AFTER 22Z.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LIFR CONDITIONS PSBL THIS AFTN WITH HEAVIER
RAIN...VFR PSBL IN BREAKS IN SHOWERS. LLWS SHOULD END AFTER
FROPA...AFTER 22Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: LIFR CONDITIONS PSBL THIS AFTN WITH HEAVIER
RAIN...VFR PSBL IN BREAKS IN SHOWERS. LLWS SHOULD END AFTER
FROPA...AFTER 22Z.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: LIFR CONDITIONS PSBL THIS AFTN WITH HEAVIER
RAIN...VFR PSBL IN BREAKS IN SHOWERS. LLWS SHOULD END AFTER
FROPA...AFTER 22Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: LIFR CONDITIONS PSBL THIS AFTN WITH HEAVIER
RAIN...VFR PSBL IN BREAKS IN SHOWERS. LLWS SHOULD END AFTER
FROPA...AFTER 22Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: LIFR CONDITIONS PSBL THIS AFTN WITH HEAVIER
RAIN...VFR PSBL IN BREAKS IN SHOWERS. LLWS SHOULD END AFTER
FROPA...AFTER 23Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WED...VFR. N WIND G20-25KT PSBL.
.WED NIGHT...VFR.
.THURS...VFR. E WIND G 20-25KT PSBL.
.THURS NIGHT-FRI NIGHT...VFR.
.SAT...PSBL MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW CHANCE OF -SHRA.
.SUN...VFR

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS...PRIMARILY FOR THE NW FLOW
TONIGHT BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. GUSTS UP TO 40 KT
POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...IN THE HOURS PRECEDING THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE EARLY THIS EVENING...THERE WILL ALSO BE MARGINAL GALE FORCE
GUSTS IN THE SLY FLOW. MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE THEN POSSIBLE ON
WED...MAINLY WITH LINGERING 5 FT SEAS.

SCA WINDS AND SEAS LIKELY ON THURSDAY AS EASTERLY FLOW INCREASES.
WINDS WILL TREND BELOW SCA LEVELS FRIDAY BUT SEAS ON OFFSHORE WATERS
SHOULD STAY ABOVE SCA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
RELAX ON SATURDAY AS REGION WEAKER FLOW SETS UP OVER THE WATERS.
SEAS AND WINDS COULD RETURN TO SCA LEVELS ON SUNDAY WITH INCREASED
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL OF 1 1/2 TO 2 INCHES...MAINLY ALL LIQUID...EXPECTED FOR
THE EVENT TOTAL THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN ANY STRONG CONVECTION.

LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN/POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS. ALSO LOW  POTENTIAL FOR FLASHY SMALL STREAMS
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY INTO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY TO
REACH MINOR FLOOD LEVELS WITH 1 HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE AROUND 1
INCH.

NOTE...MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER.
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY CAUSE WATER LEVELS TO CONTINUE
TO RISE THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE FLOOD LEVELS
TO BE REACHED. MONITOR THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS FROM NWS TAUNTON MA.

NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ009>012.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ069>075-
     078>081-176>179.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ004-006-
     103>108.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-
     345-350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DS/DW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...DS/DW
HYDROLOGY...DS/DW







000
FXUS61 KALY 152024
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
424 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE SUN WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. A GRADUAL WARM UP TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL EXIT EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
EVENING...BUT SOME PRECIPITATION IS LINGERING BEHIND THE FRONT.
THERE IS A BREAK BETWEEN THE RAIN AND A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW IN
CENTRAL NY...SO THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF SPRINKLES AND VERY LIGHT
RAIN AND SNOW MIXED BEFORE THE BAND OF SNOW SHIFTS EAST.

BASED ON THE DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW...AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN AND IN
THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY SHOULD HAVE THE BEST CHANCES AT 1 TO 4
INCHES...WITH VALLEY AREAS TO THE EAST PROBABLY SEEING DUSTINGS AS
DOWNSLOPE FLOW DISRUPTS THE HIGHER SNOWFALL RATES IN VALLEYS.
ALSO...THE SNOW IS TIMED MAINLY AFTER DARK WHEN THE SNOW CAN
ACCUMULATE BEST. IT WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW...BUT
AGAIN...ENOUGH FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE REGION...ON
GRASSY AREAS. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE BREEZY ALL
NIGHT...AND BASED ON UPSTREAM CONDITIONS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
FALL INTO THE 20S...SOME TEENS IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BREEZY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN...BUT PROSPECTS FOR QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE LOOKS GOOD.
STRONG SUN SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES REACH THE LOWER TO MID
40S...BUT 30S IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS. LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 20S...WITH TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
WARM ADVECTION. THERE SHOULD BE A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY DURING THE DAY
AND MOSTLY CLEAR AT NIGHT...OTHER THAN SOME PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS
FROM TIME TO TIME.

HIGHS THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 50 IN NORTHERN AREAS TO
LOWER TO MID 50S IN MOST OTHER AREAS. HIGHS FRIDAY SHOULD BE IN
THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A PERIOD OF DRY IN BETWEEN FAST-MOVING SYSTEMS MARKS THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.  SHOWERS MOVE IN WITH A COLD FRONT HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND...BEING CONFINED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO SATURDAY TO
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY.  THIS
WILL BE A WEAKER COLD FRONT THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE.  TEMPERATURES
WILL GET DOWN TO FROM AROUND 30 DEGREES IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND
GREENS...TO THE UPPER 30S DOWN THE HUDSON AND MOHAWK VALLEYS.  THIS
WILL RESULT IN A QUICK MIX-OVER OR CHANGEOVER TO SNOW APPROACHING
DAYBREAK SATURDAY AS THE SHOWERS CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST.

EARLY DAY HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S IN THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO AROUND 60 DEGREES IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.  CLOUDS AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL HELP SUPPRESS A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH LOW READINGS FROM THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S SATURDAY
NIGHT...SIMILAR TO FRIDAY NIGHT.  THIS COULD TURN ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...AND NORTH AND WEST OF THE
SARATOGA REGION BACK TO A MIX OR SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE ALL IS ENDED BY
DAYBREAK.

SUNDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 40S IN
THE GREENS AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO AROUND 60 DEGREES DOWN THE
HUDSON VALLEY.  THE DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
MORE OF THE SAME FOR LOW TEMPERATURES.  THE BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING FROM JAMES BAY TO THE GULF COAST SHIFTS EAST...AND A WEAK
LOW BRINGS IN THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT...THOUGH
IT IS EVEN LESS IMPRESSIVE THAN THE ONE BEFORE IT.  THIS WILL LIKELY
BE AN ALL-RAIN EVENT AS TEMPERATURES EVERYWHERE ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING WITH A WARM FRONT EVOLVING AND LIFTING NORTH
TOWARD OUR FORECAST AREA.  HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S AND
LOWER 60S WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS THE REGION EARLY IN THE TAF
PERIOD BRINGING MVFR FLYING CONDITIONS TO ALL THE TAF SITES. VFR
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY 06Z AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION.

THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...COLD FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
PREDOMINATELY MVFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY THESE
SHOWERS...EXCEPT FOR INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF IFR AT KPSF.

SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL RANGE FROM 12-18 KNOTS
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 25-30 KNOTS. AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH THE REGION IN THE 21Z-00Z TIMEFRAME...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE NORTHWEST BUT REMAIN GUSTY AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25
KNOTS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO DRAG DRAMATICALLY COLDER AIR INTO THE
REGION IN ITS WAKE...AS TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET INTO THE LOW AND
MID 30S BY 00Z. WHILE THE PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD REMAIN
RAIN...THERE MAY BE A LIGHT MIXTURE OF SNOW AND SLEET AROUND
00Z...BUT EXPECT THIS TRANSITION TO OCCUR AFTER 00Z AT THIS TIME.

TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BY 00Z THE TAF SITES WILL BE TRANSITIONING
TO A SNOW/SLEET/RAIN MIX AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO FALL BEFORE
BECOMING ALL SNOW BY 03Z. THERE WILL NOT BE AS MUCH MOISTURE BEHIND
THE FRONT SO HAVE MENTIONED JUST -SHSN IN THE TAFS WITH A COATING TO
PERHAPS AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KGFL AND
KPSF.

SKIES WILL RAPIDLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 06Z AND BECOME SKC
BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS...BEFORE INCREASING
SLIGHTLY TO END THE TAF PERIOD AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25
KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
COLD AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE SUN WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. A GRADUAL WARM UP TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE.

ALL AREAS RECEIVED A HALF INCH TO OVER AN INCH OF RAIN IN THE LAST
24 HOURS. SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...EASTERN CATSKILLS...SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND
BERKSHIRES TONIGHT.

RH VALUES SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 60 PERCENT AND 90 PERCENT ONCE
PRECIPITATION ENDS TONIGHT...ALONG WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25
MPH AND GUSTS TO 35 MPH.

SUNSHINE RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH A BRISK WEST WIND 10 TO
20 MPH...BUT GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WEDNESDAY SHOULD FALL TO THE 25 TO
35 PERCENT RANGE.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT
WINDS LESS THAN 15 MPH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR THE ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY/LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA
REGION CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TACONICS...SOUTHERN VERMONT AND THE
NORTHERN BERKSHIRES.

WIDESPREAD RAIN OF A HALF INCH TO INCH AND A HALF ALONG WITH SNOW
MELT HAVE PRODUCED SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF IN THE WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED
ALONG SOME RIVER POINTS IN THOSE AREAS AS SOME PLACES COULD REACH
MODERATE FLOOD STAGE...POSSIBLY MAJOR FLOOD STAGE AT RIVERBANK.
ADDITIONAL RUNOFF COULD OCCUR INTO THE WALLOOMSAC AND HOOSIC
RIVERS WITH WATER RISES APPROACHING FLOOD STAGE IN SOUTHERN
VERMONT AND WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS.

AS COLDER AIR POURS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...RAIN WILL TURN TO
SNOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...PRODUCING
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...THE PRECIPITATION
COULD EVEN END AS SNOW SHOWERS WITH A COATING IN PLACES.

THIS COLDER AIR WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING EVERYWHERE
OVERNIGHT...THUS SLOWING DOWN THE RUNOFF. HOWEVER...LARGE STEM
RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND NOT CREST UNTIL WEDNESDAY.

DRY WEATHER IS IN STORE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR NYZ032-033-038>043-
     050-053-054-082>084.
MA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MAZ001.
VT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS








000
FXUS61 KBOX 151950
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
350 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS...SOAKING RAIN...AND
POSSIBLY EVEN A BRIEF CHANGE TO A WINTRY MIX BEFORE ENDING DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WED. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN WILL BRING
DRY BUT UNSEASONABLE CHILLY AIR TO THE REGION WED/WED NIGHT. DRY
WEATHER CONTINUES THU INTO THE FIRST PART OF FRI WITH MODERATING
AFTERNOON TEMPS INLAND...BUT REMAINING CHILLY ALONG THE COAST. LOW
PRESSURE MAY BRING A ROUND OR TWO OF RAIN SHOWERS SOMETIME FRI NIGHT
INTO SAT...THEN DRY AND COOLER SUNDAY/MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
200 PM UPDATE...

COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. SUB-TROPICAL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE COUPLED WITH STRONG LIFT AND DYNAMICS COMING
TOGETHER ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BEGINNING TO SEE AN AREAL
INCREASE IN RAIN COVERAGE WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS AND AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. H925 WINDS FROM VERTICAL WIND PROFILERS VIA
WSR-88D SHOWING ENHANCING S-WINDS OF 60-70 KTS. WILL LIKELY SEE AN
INCREASE IN IMPACTS DUE TO THE ATTRIBUTABLE THREATS OUTLINED
BELOW:

HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING...

FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR MULTIPLE POINTS ALONG THE
CONNECTICUT RIVER BASIN WITH THE EXPECTATION OF MINOR RIVER
FLOODING...PERHAPS MODERATE FLOODING AT MIDDLE HADDAM. AN AREAL
FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF RI AND THE SURROUNDING
AREA.

EARLIER...THE SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH NOTED ANOMALOUS DEEP
MOISTURE SURGING NORTH FROM THE GULF ON THE ORDER OF 3-4 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL WHILE WPC PUT OUT A SLIGHT RISK TO THE
WEST OF THE REGION OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING.
LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS HIGHLIGHTS A SURGE OF 1.5 INCH PWATS INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COLLOCATED WITH STRONG CONVERGENT H85
MOISTURE TRANSPORT.

COUPLING WITH AN AMPLIFYING LLJ ALREADY OBSERVED BY THE EARLIER
MENTIONED VERTICAL WIND PROFILERS THE CONVERGENT NOSE OF WHICH
LIES OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BENEATH THE RRQ OF AN UPPER-LEVEL
JET...AND CONSIDERING THE APPROACH OF A SHARP COLD FRONT AND DEEP
FRONTOGENETICAL LIFT...AND YOU HAVE A PRETTY GOOD SETUP FOR HEAVY
RAIN AND FLOODING. CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS AND MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE
RATES...AND THERE IS SOME CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY TO WARRANT THE
THREAT OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

THUS THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES WITH THE EXPECTATIONS AS OUTLINED
ABOVE. AVERAGE STORM-TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST AROUND 2
INCHES AND EXPECT LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF AROUND 3 INCHES IN A
TIMEFRAME OF AROUND 6-HOURS.

THE BASIS FOR THE FLOOD WATCH IS DUE TO ALREADY SWOLLEN RIVERS
FROM UPSTREAM SNOWMELT TAKING ON ADDITIONAL WATER AND LIKELY GOING
INTO MINOR FLOOD...POSSIBLY INTO MODERATE FLOOD. RIVER BASINS OF
CONCERN INCLUDE CONNECTICUT/MERRIMACK/PAWCATUCK. ALSO ANTICIPATE
IMPACTS TO LOCAL STREAMS/CREEKS/TRIBUTARIES...ESPECIALLY THOSE
THAT ARE NARROWER AND FLASHIER. THOSE WITH INTERESTS ALONG AREA
RIVERS SHOULD PAY ATTENTION TO THE LATEST FORECASTS AND CURRENT
WATER LEVELS.

THE FLOOD WATCH ALSO INCLUDES URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE ISSUES THE
HEIGHT OF WHICH WILL CENTER AROUND THE DRIVE-HOME COMMUTE FOR MOST
ROADWAYS THROUGHOUT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. CONCERNED FOR THE I-91
CORRIDOR SURROUNDING SPRINGFIELD MA AND HARTFORD CT...AS WELL AS
THE I-95/I-195 CORRIDORS AROUND BOSTON AND PROVIDENCE...EVEN OUT
I-90 INCORPORATING WORCESTER. PONDING OF WATER ALONG AREA ROADWAYS
WILL LIKELY BE A BIG ISSUE TO AREA TRAFFIC.

PLEASE SEE THE COASTAL FLOODING SECTION BELOW FOR COASTAL FLOOD
THREATS.

WINDS...

SEVERAL LOCATIONS ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN NEW ENGLAND OBSERVING
WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS /46 MPH/. WSR-88D VERTICAL WIND
PROFILERS SHOWING WINDS AT H925 AMPLIFYING TO 70 KTS. INCREASING
AREAL COVERAGE OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS AIDING IN THE
PRECIP-DRAG / MECHANICAL MIXING OF FASTER MOMENTUM ALOFT DOWN TO
THE SURFACE. SHOULD SEE THESE WINDS CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. WIND ADVISORIES CONTINUE ACCORDINGLY. ANY HIGH-WINDS TO
WHICH WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR WILL BE HANDLED WITH SHORT-FUSED
WARNINGS.

THOSE TRAVELING OVER BRIDGES /THINKING THE SAGAMORE AND BOURNE/
SHOULD BE AWARE OF FIERCE CROSSWINDS. GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE. ALREADY RECEIVING NUMEROUS REPORTS OF TREES AND
WIRES DOWN...BLOWN TRANSFORMERS AND POWER OUTAGES. THESE IMPACTS
AND THREATS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION.

WINTRY MIX/FLASH FREEZE POTENTIAL...

TEMPERATURES QUICKLY FALLING IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
CONSIDERING THE STRONG DYNAMICS AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RRQ
OF THE UPPER-LEVEL JET ACROSS AND TO THE REAR OF THE FRONT...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING PRECIPITATION WITHIN THE
SHALLOW COLD-AIR MASS.

THUS THERE REMAINS THE POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF CHANGEOVER TO A
SNOW/SLEET MIX...MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF N MA AND S NH ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE ROUTE 2 CORRIDOR. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT
AROUND A TRACE TO PERHAPS A TENTH OR TWO...ENOUGH TO MAKE FOR
SLIPPERY CONDITIONS.

DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REAR OF THE STORM RESULTING IN THE
BACK EDGE OF PRECIP TO DISSIPATE. SHOULD ALSO SEE THIS DRY AIR AT
THE SURFACE. THUS IT IS A QUESTION AS TO WHETHER WET SURFACES FROM
THE RAIN WILL FREEZE AHEAD OF EVAPORATING. EITHER WHICH WAY...THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR BLACK-ICE AND SLIPPERY CONDITIONS THAT MAY
EXIST FOR THE WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...

AN UNSEASONABLY CHILLY AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO WORK INTO THE REGION
AS LARGE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. ANY LEFT OVER
PRECIPITATION SHOULD HAVE EXITED THE CAPE/ISLANDS BY EARLY TO MID
MORNING...AS THE COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE.

NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH DURING THE
MORNING...BUT WILL DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON. ANOMALOUS 850
MB TEMPS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BETWEEN -6C AND -10C ARE EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...PLENTY OF STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE WILL OFFSET THIS TO SOME
DEGREE. ALL IN ALL...MUCH OF THE REGION SHOULD SEE HIGHS RECOVER
WELL INTO THE 40S DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY BUT UNSEASONABLY CHILLY WED NIGHT
* DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO FRI AND BECOMING MILDER INLAND
* A PERIOD OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT BUT LOW CONFIDENCE

AN ACTIVE AND SURPRESSED NORTHERN STREAM JET THIS PERIOD WILL RESULT
IN TEMPERATURES AT OR COOLER THAN NORMAL ALONG WITH A FEW CHANCES OF
SHOWERS. VERY TYPICAL PATTERN FOR MID APRIL.

DAILY DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

CHILLY AIRMASS OVER THE REGION ALONG WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WINDS. THIS WILL RESULT IN COLD TEMPS OUTSIDE OF THE
URBAN AREAS WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE 20S!

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...

STRONG /1044 MB!/ HIGH PRESSURE ADVECTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
THIS WILL EVOLVE INTO A COOL MARITIME AIRMASS FOR SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WITH LARGE TEMP DIFFERENCES FROM THE COAST TO INLAND. ACROSS
EASTERN MA THE VERY CHILLY OCEAN WATERS WITH SSTS IN THE L40S WILL
ACT LIKE A SNOWCOVER AND ENHANCE THIS COOL MARITIME AIRMASS. CHILLY
ONSHORE WINDS WILL ADVECT THIS VERY COOL AND SHALLOW MARITIME
AIRMASS INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN. THEREFORE ONLY EXPECTING HIGHS IN
THE 40S OVER EASTERN MA...MEANWHILE STRONG APRIL SUN HEATS UP THE
INTERIOR INTO THE 50S. AIRMASS CONTINUES TO MODIFY FRI WITH HIGHS 45-
50 EASTERN MA AND 55-60 WELL INLAND.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...

MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE ON AMPLITUDE AND INTERACTION OF NORTHERN
AND SOUTHERN STREAM WAVES. 12Z GFS REMAINS MORE ROBUST AND PHASING
THAN THE 12Z ECMWF. THUS THE GFS IS THE WETTER SOLUTION OF THE TWO.
ENSEMBLES INDICATE MORE STREAM SEPARATION AND ARE SLOWER PHASING THE
STREAMS BUT THIS IS SOMEWHAT TYPICAL GIVEN THE LOWER RESOLUTION OF
THE ENSEMBLES.

TEMPS LIKELY REMAIN NEAR NORMAL...HIGHS IN THE 50S.

SUNDAY/MONDAY/TUESDAY...

AS EXPECTED LOTS OF TIMING ISSUES HERE GIVEN THE FAST FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN STATES. GIVEN THIS FLOW REGIME AND TIME RANGE HERE WILL
FOLLOW A MODEL BLEND WHICH YIELDS TEMPS NEAR NORMAL AND A RISK OF
SHOWERS IN THE MON NIGHT/TUE TIME FRAME.


&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WITH CIGS/VSBYS FALLING IFR-VLIFR WITH
+RA TOWARDS CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING PERIOD. POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED TSRA BUT WITH UNCERTAINTY WILL NOT MENTION IN TAF. STRONG
S-WINDS WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS FOR S/E TERMINALS. DESPITE
THIS...WILL SEE LLWS IMPACTS OVER ALL TERMINALS AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS
ARE AMPLIFYING TO 60-70 KT 2 KFT AGL.

COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE TERMINALS AROUND MIDNIGHT. WILL SEE
WINDS BACK WEST REMAINING GUSTY UP TO 40 KTS. CONDITIONS QUICKLY
IMPROVING TO VFR. MAY SEE RAIN TRANSITION TO SNOW/SLEET BRIEFLY
WITH MINOR ACCUMS. BEST CHANCES OVER NW MA INTO S NH.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY...VFR VSBYS LIKELY WITH MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE...HIGHEST PROBABILITY ACROSS RI AND EASTERN MA.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE BUT
CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW.

SUNDAY...IMPROVING TREND WITH VFR LIKELY ALONG WITH INCREASING NW
WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

S-SW WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY SUCH THAT GALE
FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY BY THIS AFTERNOON...CONTINUING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. GALE WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THIS THREAT. THESE
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE W-NW EARLY WED MORNING BUT CONTINUE WITH
GALE FORCE GUSTS UNTIL THEY SUBSIDE BY MID MORNING WED.

SOME HEAVY RAIN/FOG AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WELL.

SEAS INCREASE TO 10-12 FT.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

WED NIGHT THRU FRI...TREND HERE WILL BE DECREASING SOUTHERLY SWELLS
WITH INCREASING ENE WIND WAVES. MAINLY DRY WITH MARITIME AIRMASS
OVER THE WATERS COURTSEY OF 1040 MB HIGH ACROSS NEWFOUNDLAND.

FRI NIGHT AND SAT...LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST WITH LOW PRES
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH AND ANOTHER FROM THE GREAT LAKES. DILEMMA
WILL BE HOW MUCH SEPARATION BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS OR IF LOWS WILL
MERGE INTO ONE STRONGER SYSTEM. STILL TOO EARLY TO SAY.

SUNDAY...IMPROVING TRENDS WITH LOW PRES STRENGTHENING WELL EAST OF
NEW ENGLAND FOLLOWED BY A MODEST NW WIND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE WATERS GUSTING 30 TO 40 MPH WILL
YIELD AN AVERAGE 1.5 FOOT SURGE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. COMBINED
WITH HIGH TIDE AROUND 9-10 PM /NOT ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH/...THERE
IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SPLASHOVER ALONG LOW-LYING AREAS...BUT AT
THIS PRESENT TIME WE ARE NOT CONSIDERING MINOR COASTAL FLOODING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MAZ002>021-026.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MAZ004>007-
     012>024-026.
NH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR NHZ011-012-015.
RI...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR RIZ001>007.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR RIZ001>008.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ230>234-236-250-
     251.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-256.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...SIPPRELL
MARINE...NOCERA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...RMT




000
FXUS61 KOKX 151850
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
250 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST OF THE REGION TOWARDS THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
WEAKENING DURING THE PROCESS. LOW PRESSURE ALONG A STALLED FRONT
TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION APPROACHES FRIDAY AND PASSES EAST OF
THE REGION SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AND OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD FRONT LOCATED JUST NW OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY IS BEING
PRECEDED BY MULTIPLE BANDS OF SHOWERS WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. A STRONGER LINE OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING RIGHT
ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS EASTERN PA WILL HAVE TO BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS AS IT APPROACHES THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE AREA BETWEEN 4 AND 5 PM. WHILE THERE IS NO SURFACE
INSTABILITY...STRONG VERTICAL WIND PROFILES WITH A 60 TO 70 KT
LOW-LEVEL JET NEAR THE COAST MAY ALLOW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL
DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER. RIGHT NOW...THE STRONGEST WINDS WERE
ACROSS COASTAL LOCATIONS WITH 25 TO 30 MPH SUSTAINED AND GUSTS UP
TO 45 MPH...WITH 30 TO 35 MPH ELSEWHERE.

INGREDIENTS ARE STILL THERE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT COMBINES WITH ANOMALOUSLY HIGH MOISTURE....PW
VALUES ABOUT 1.5 INCHES...AND BOTH LOW- AND UPPER- LEVEL JET
DYNAMICS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOWS A NICE PLUME OF
MOISTURE INTERSECTING THE FRONT...ORIGINATING OVER THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEX. RAINFALL TOTALS STILL LOOK TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 1 1/2
TO 2 INCHES BY THE TIME ALL IS SAID AND DONE.

IN ADDITION...ISOLATED THUNDER STILL POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION THIS EVENING INTO LATE TONIGHT WITH
THE PRECIPITATION ENDING. FORCING DIMINISHES QUICKLY WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL SOME LINGERING SHOWERS POST FRONTAL
POSSIBLE. MUCH COLDER AIR LAGS BEHIND THE FRONT THAT MUCH OF THE
PRECIPITATION IS ENDED BY THAT TIME. THERE IS JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SNOW SHOWERS JUST TO THE VICINITY OF THE NEW YORK CITY METRO AREA
LATE TONIGHT. AND NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA TONIGHT WITH LOWS 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FREEZING OR NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. AND WITH THE GROWING SEASON
BEGINNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND
NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY HAVE ISSUED A FREEZING WARNING.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR WEDNESDAY WITH A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND IN
THE MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS
WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S...WHILE NORMAL HIGHS ARE IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAIN UPPER LEVEL JET SOUTH OF THE REGION MID TO LATE THIS WEEK WITH
AS BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS. A SHORTWAVE IN
THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL WITH ACCOMPANYING JET STREAK WILL MOVE IN
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AND EXIT EAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE REGION WILL THEN BE ON A NORTHEAST SIDE OF A LARGE
WEAK...RATHER FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING
SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE TRANSLATING NORTHEAST INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL ALLOW FOR A COOLER MARITIME TYPE OF AIR MASS
TO BE WITHIN THE REGION AS WE GET INTO A NORTHEAST FLOW REGIME. THIS
CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY BUT WITH WEAKENING WINDS...THE AIR MASS WILL
GRADUALLY MODERATE WITH A RESULTING SLOW INCREASE IN DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES EACH DAY.

IN TERMS OF WEATHER...DRY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THEREAFTER...A
TREND TOWARDS A MORE WET PATTERN EVIDENT STARTING FRIDAY WITH LOW
PRESSURE IN SOUTHEAST DEVELOPING AND APPROACHING ALONG A STALLED
FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS A TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING. CMC ONLY
MODEL SHOWING VERY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS
FRIDAY WITH GREATER MODEL AGREEMENT ON RAINFALL FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY.

THIS COMES WITH THE APPROACH OF THE TROUGH AND GREATER MOISTURE AND
WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW. RESIDUAL LIGHT NORTHEAST
FLOW AT THE SURFACE FURTHER INCREASES THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE.

THE TROUGH AXIS PUSHES EAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING
FOR A DRIER TREND TO WEATHER AS SHOWERS TAPER OFF AS MORE OF A
NORTHERLY FLOW WITH LESS EASTERLY COMPONENT SETTLES IN.

EARLY NEXT WEEK RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS AS HIGH PRES MOVES ACROSS AREA
AND EVENTUALLY OFFSHORE. AIR MASS WILL FURTHER MODERATE WITH WARMER
AND MORE MOIST AIR MASS MOVING IN.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES ITS APPROACH THIS AFTERNOON. WIDE VARIATIONS
IN CONDITIONS. BREAKS IN SHOWERS WILL SEE SOME VSBY AND/OR CIG
IMPROVEMENT...TO VFR IN SOME CASES. OTHERWISE...IFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED...WITH LIFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS THAT MOVE
THROUGH.

HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS WITH STRONG SLY FLOW DURING THE DAY...WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20-30KTS WITH OCNL GUSTS UP TO 35 KTS FOR THE DAY.
SOME ISOLATED GUSTS CLOSE TO 40KT POSSIBLE. WINDS SHIFTING S -SW-
NW DURING THIS TIME AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH 22Z-03Z. WINDS WILL
TAPER OFF SLIGHTLY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...THEN INCREASE AGAIN
AS THE WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW. GUSTS UP TO AROUND 35 KTS LIKELY
TONIGHT WITH AN ISOLATED GUST TO 40 KTS POSSIBLE.

LLWS ISSUES PERSISTING THROUGH LATE AFTN...WITH GENERALLY 50-60
KTS BETWEEN 1-2KFT. SLIGHTLY HIGHER LLWS OF UP TO 65 KT FOR
EASTERN SECTIONS SUCH AS KISP AND KGON AS LOW LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENS OVER THESE AREAS THIS MORNING. AS THE JET PUSHES EAST
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT...LLWS WILL DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON.


     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: LIFR CONDITIONS PSBL THIS AFTN WITH HEAVIER
RAIN...VFR PSBL IN BREAKS IN SHOWERS. LLWS SHOULD END AFTER
FROPA...AFTER 22Z.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LIFR CONDITIONS PSBL THIS AFTN WITH HEAVIER
RAIN...VFR PSBL IN BREAKS IN SHOWERS. LLWS SHOULD END AFTER
FROPA...AFTER 22Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: LIFR CONDITIONS PSBL THIS AFTN WITH HEAVIER
RAIN...VFR PSBL IN BREAKS IN SHOWERS. LLWS SHOULD END AFTER
FROPA...AFTER 22Z.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: LIFR CONDITIONS PSBL THIS AFTN WITH HEAVIER
RAIN...VFR PSBL IN BREAKS IN SHOWERS. LLWS SHOULD END AFTER
FROPA...AFTER 22Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: LIFR CONDITIONS PSBL THIS AFTN WITH HEAVIER
RAIN...VFR PSBL IN BREAKS IN SHOWERS. LLWS SHOULD END AFTER
FROPA...AFTER 22Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: LIFR CONDITIONS PSBL THIS AFTN WITH HEAVIER
RAIN...VFR PSBL IN BREAKS IN SHOWERS. LLWS SHOULD END AFTER
FROPA...AFTER 23Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WED...VFR. N WIND G20-25KT PSBL.
.WED NIGHT...VFR.
.THURS...VFR. E WIND G 20-25KT PSBL.
.THURS NIGHT-FRI NIGHT...VFR.
.SAT...PSBL MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW CHANCE OF -SHRA.
.SUN...VFR

&&

.MARINE...
POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG ON THE WATERS CONTINUES. DENSE FOG
ADVISORY REMAINS WITH EXPECTATION OF VSBY TO DROP BELOW 1 NM
WITH CONTINUED MOIST FLOW.

SMALL CRAFT SEAS ON THE OCEAN CONTINUES TODAY WITH A STRONG
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. WITH AN INCREASE IN THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WINDS
AND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THIS
MORNING. A LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL KEEP HIGHER WINDS FROM MIXING TO
THE WATER SURFACE. SO HAVE POSTED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL THE
FORECAST WATERS TODAY. WITH CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE WATERS LATE
THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY THE WESTERN
WATERS...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF GALE FORCE GUSTS.

BETTER MIXING WILL OCCUR TONIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT AS
STRONG COLD ADVECTION SETS UP BEHIND THE FRONT. GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE
LIKELY AND UPGRADED THE WATCH TO A WARNING. GALE FORCE GUSTS MAY
CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY HOURS OF WEDNESDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN ZONES...HOWEVER...DO NOT HAVE HIGH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
EXTEND THE WARNING.

IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL BE SLOWLY SUBSIDING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FALLING BELOW 5 FT ACROSS THE WATERS EAST OF
MORICHES INLET BY LATE AFTERNOON. SO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR SEAS WEDNESDAY IF THE GALE WARNING IS NOT
EXTENDED.

AFTER BRIEF LULL IN SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS OCEAN WED NIGHT...TOWARDS
DAYBREAK THU...RETURN OF SCA CONDITIONS FORECAST WITH EASTERLY FLOW
INCREASING. WINDS WILL TREND TO MOSTLY BELOW SCA BY LATE THU NIGHT
THROUGH REST OF MARINE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...SEAS WILL LIKELY
RETURN TO SCA LATE WED NIGHT ON THE OCEAN THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE
DROPPING BELOW SCA FOR WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND...HIGHER SEAS COULD COME BACK IN ON THE OCEAN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL OF 1 1/2 TO 2 INCHES...MAINLY ALL LIQUID...EXPECTED FROM
EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES.

MODERATE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS. ALSO LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR FLASHY SMALL STREAMS
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY INTO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY TO REACH
MINOR FLOOD LEVELS WITH 1 HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE AROUND 1 INCH.

NOTE...MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER.
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY CAUSE WATER LEVELS TO CONTINUE
TO RISE THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE FLOOD LEVELS
TO BE REACHED. MONITOR THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS FROM NWS TAUNTON MA.

AFTER TONIGHT NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIP EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ069-070.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ004-006-
     103>108.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345-350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-
     335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JM/MET
NEAR TERM...JM/DW
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...JM/MET
HYDROLOGY...JM/MET







000
FXUS61 KOKX 151836
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
236 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST OF THE REGION TOWARDS THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
WEAKENING DURING THE PROCESS. LOW PRESSURE ALONG A STALLED FRONT
TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION APPROACHES FRIDAY AND PASSES EAST OF
THE REGION SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AND OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD FRONT LOCATED JUST NW OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY IS BEING
PRECEDED BY MULTIPLE BANDS OF SHOWERS WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. A STRONGER LINE OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING RIGHT
ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS EASTERN PA WILL HAVE TO BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS AS IT APPROACHES THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE AREA BETWEEN 4 AND 5 PM. WHILE THERE IS NO SURFACE
INSTABILITY...STRONG VERTICAL WIND PROFILES WITH A 60 TO 70 KT
LOW-LEVEL JET NEAR THE COAST MAY ALLOW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL
DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER. RIGHT NOW...THE STRONGEST WINDS WERE
ACROSS COASTAL LOCATIONS WITH 25 TO 30 MPH SUSTAINED AND GUSTS UP
TO 45 MPH...WITH 30 TO 35 MPH ELSEWHERE.

INGREDIENTS ARE STILL THERE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT COMBINES WITH ANOMALOUSLY HIGH MOISTURE....PW
VALUES ABOUT 1.5 INCHES...AND BOTH LOW- AND UPPER- LEVEL JET
DYNAMICS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOWS A NICE PLUME OF
MOISTURE INTERSECTING THE FRONT...ORIGINATING OVER THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEX. RAINFALL TOTALS STILL LOOK TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 1 1/2
TO 2 INCHES BY THE TIME ALL IS SAID AND DONE.

IN ADDITION...ISOLATED THUNDER STILL POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION THIS EVENING INTO LATE TONIGHT WITH
THE PRECIPITATION ENDING. FORCING DIMINISHES QUICKLY WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL SOME LINGERING SHOWERS POST FRONTAL
POSSIBLE. MUCH COLDER AIR LAGS BEHIND THE FRONT THAT MUCH OF THE
PRECIPITATION IS ENDED BY THAT TIME. THERE IS JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SNOW SHOWERS JUST TO THE VICINITY OF THE NEW YORK CITY METRO AREA
LATE TONIGHT. AND NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA TONIGHT WITH LOWS 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FREEZING OR NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. AND WITH THE GROWING SEASON
BEGINNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND
NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY HAVE ISSUED A FREEZING WARNING.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR WEDNESDAY WITH A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND IN
THE MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS
WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S...WHILE NORMAL HIGHS ARE IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAIN UPPER LEVEL JET SOUTH OF THE REGION MID TO LATE THIS WEEK WITH
AS BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS. A SHORTWAVE IN
THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL WITH ACCOMPANYING JET STREAK WILL MOVE IN
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AND EXIT EAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE REGION WILL THEN BE ON A NORTHEAST SIDE OF A LARGE
WEAK...RATHER FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING
SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. +SHRA BETWEEN 18 AND
23Z. ISO TSTM IS PSBL DURING THIS TIME AS WELL...THOUGH LOW
CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE/TIMING AND THUS HAVE NOT INCLUDED. RAIN
TAPERS OFF WEST TO EAST 00-06Z...WITH ONLY KSWF EXPECTED TO SEE
LIGHT SNOW MIX IN.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE TRANSLATING NORTHEAST INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL ALLOW FOR A COOLER MARITIME TYPE OF AIR MASS
TO BE WITHIN THE REGION AS WE GET INTO A NORTHEAST FLOW REGIME. THIS
CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY BUT WITH WEAKENING WINDS...THE AIR MASS WILL
GRADUALLY MODERATE WITH A RESULTING SLOW INCREASE IN DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES EACH DAY.

IN TERMS OF WEATHER...DRY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THEREAFTER...A
TREND TOWARDS A MORE WET PATTERN EVIDENT STARTING FRIDAY WITH LOW
PRESSURE IN SOUTHEAST DEVELOPING AND APPROACHING ALONG A STALLED
FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS A TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING. CMC ONLY
MODEL SHOWING VERY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS
FRIDAY WITH GREATER MODEL AGREEMENT ON RAINFALL FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY.

THIS COMES WITH THE APPROACH OF THE TROUGH AND GREATER MOISTURE AND
WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW. RESIDUAL LIGHT NORTHEAST
FLOW AT THE SURFACE FURTHER INCREASES THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE.

THE TROUGH AXIS PUSHES EAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING
FOR A DRIER TREND TO WEATHER AS SHOWERS TAPER OFF AS MORE OF A
NORTHERLY FLOW WITH LESS EASTERLY COMPONENT SETTLES IN.

EARLY NEXT WEEK RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS AS HIGH PRES MOVES ACROSS AREA
AND EVENTUALLY OFFSHORE. AIR MASS WILL FURTHER MODERATE WITH WARMER
AND MORE MOIST AIR MASS MOVING IN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES ITS APPROACH THIS AFTERNOON. WIDE VARIATIONS
IN CONDITIONS. BREAKS IN SHOWERS WILL SEE SOME VSBY AND/OR CIG
IMPROVEMENT...TO VFR IN SOME CASES. OTHERWISE...IFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED...WITH LIFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS THAT MOVE
THROUGH.

HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS WITH STRONG SLY FLOW DURING THE DAY...WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20-30KTS WITH OCNL GUSTS UP TO 35 KTS FOR THE DAY.
SOME ISOLATED GUSTS CLOSE TO 40KT POSSIBLE. WINDS SHIFTING S -SW-
NW DURING THIS TIME AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH 22Z-03Z. WINDS WILL
TAPER OFF SLIGHTLY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...THEN INCREASE AGAIN
AS THE WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW. GUSTS UP TO AROUND 35 KTS LIKELY
TONIGHT WITH AN ISOLATED GUST TO 40 KTS POSSIBLE.

LLWS ISSUES PERSISTING THROUGH LATE AFTN...WITH GENERALLY 50-60
KTS BETWEEN 1-2KFT. SLIGHTLY HIGHER LLWS OF UP TO 65 KT FOR
EASTERN SECTIONS SUCH AS KISP AND KGON AS LOW LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENS OVER THESE AREAS THIS MORNING. AS THE JET PUSHES EAST
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT...LLWS WILL DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON.


     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: LIFR CONDITIONS PSBL THIS AFTN WITH HEAVIER
RAIN...VFR PSBL IN BREAKS IN SHOWERS. LLWS SHOULD END AFTER
FROPA...AFTER 22Z.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LIFR CONDITIONS PSBL THIS AFTN WITH HEAVIER
RAIN...VFR PSBL IN BREAKS IN SHOWERS. LLWS SHOULD END AFTER
FROPA...AFTER 22Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: LIFR CONDITIONS PSBL THIS AFTN WITH HEAVIER
RAIN...VFR PSBL IN BREAKS IN SHOWERS. LLWS SHOULD END AFTER
FROPA...AFTER 22Z.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: LIFR CONDITIONS PSBL THIS AFTN WITH HEAVIER
RAIN...VFR PSBL IN BREAKS IN SHOWERS. LLWS SHOULD END AFTER
FROPA...AFTER 22Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: LIFR CONDITIONS PSBL THIS AFTN WITH HEAVIER
RAIN...VFR PSBL IN BREAKS IN SHOWERS. LLWS SHOULD END AFTER
FROPA...AFTER 22Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: LIFR CONDITIONS PSBL THIS AFTN WITH HEAVIER
RAIN...VFR PSBL IN BREAKS IN SHOWERS. LLWS SHOULD END AFTER
FROPA...AFTER 23Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WED...VFR. N WIND G20-25KT PSBL.
.WED NIGHT...VFR.
.THURS...VFR. E WIND G 20-25KT PSBL.
.THURS NIGHT-FRI NIGHT...VFR.
.SAT...PSBL MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW CHANCE OF -SHRA.
.SUN...VFR
&&

.MARINE...
POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG ON THE WATERS CONTINUES. DENSE FOG
ADVISORY REMAINS WITH EXPECTATION OF VSBY TO DROP BELOW 1 NM
WITH CONTINUED MOIST FLOW.

SMALL CRAFT SEAS ON THE OCEAN CONTINUES TODAY WITH A STRONG
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. WITH AN INCREASE IN THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WINDS
AND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THIS
MORNING. A LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL KEEP HIGHER WINDS FROM MIXING TO
THE WATER SURFACE. SO HAVE POSTED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL THE
FORECAST WATERS TODAY. WITH CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE WATERS LATE
THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY THE WESTERN
WATERS...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF GALE FORCE GUSTS.

BETTER MIXING WILL OCCUR TONIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT AS
STRONG COLD ADVECTION SETS UP BEHIND THE FRONT. GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE
LIKELY AND UPGRADED THE WATCH TO A WARNING. GALE FORCE GUSTS MAY
CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY HOURS OF WEDNESDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN ZONES...HOWEVER...DO NOT HAVE HIGH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
EXTEND THE WARNING.

IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL BE SLOWLY SUBSIDING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FALLING BELOW 5 FT ACROSS THE WATERS EAST OF
MORICHES INLET BY LATE AFTERNOON. SO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR SEAS WEDNESDAY IF THE GALE WARNING IS NOT
EXTENDED.

AFTER BRIEF LULL IN SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS OCEAN WED NIGHT...TOWARDS
DAYBREAK THU...RETURN OF SCA CONDITIONS FORECAST WITH EASTERLY FLOW
INCREASING. WINDS WILL TREND TO MOSTLY BELOW SCA BY LATE THU NIGHT
THROUGH REST OF MARINE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...SEAS WILL LIKELY
RETURN TO SCA LATE WED NIGHT ON THE OCEAN THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE
DROPPING BELOW SCA FOR WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND...HIGHER SEAS COULD COME BACK IN ON THE OCEAN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL OF 1 1/2 TO 2 INCHES...MAINLY ALL LIQUID...EXPECTED FROM
EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES.

MODERATE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS. ALSO LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR FLASHY SMALL STREAMS
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY INTO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY TO REACH
MINOR FLOOD LEVELS WITH 1 HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE AROUND 1 INCH.

NOTE...MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER.
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY CAUSE WATER LEVELS TO CONTINUE
TO RISE THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE FLOOD LEVELS
TO BE REACHED. MONITOR THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS FROM NWS TAUNTON MA.

AFTER TONIGHT NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIP EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ069-070.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ004-006-
     103>108.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345-350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-
     335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM/MET
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...JM/MET
HYDROLOGY...JM/MET









000
FXUS61 KBOX 151803
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
203 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING A MIX OF GUSTY WINDS...SOAKING
RAIN...AND POSSIBLY EVEN A BRIEF CHANGE TO A WINTRY MIX BEFORE
ENDING DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TOMORROW. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN WILL BRING DRY BUT UNSEASONABLE CHILLY AIR TO THE
REGION WED/WED NIGHT. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THU INTO THE FIRST
PART OF FRI WITH MODERATING AFTERNOON TEMPS INLAND...BUT REMAINING
CHILLY ALONG THE COAST. A COUPLE WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MAY
BRING A ROUND OR TWO OF RAIN SHOWERS SOMETIME FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

200 PM UPDATE...

COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. SUB-TROPICAL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE COUPLED WITH STRONG LIFT AND DYNAMICS COMING
TOGETHER ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BEGINNING TO SEE AN AREAL
INCREASE IN RAIN COVERAGE WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS AND AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. H925 WINDS FROM VERTICAL WIND PROFILERS VIA
WSR-88D SHOWING ENHANCING S-WINDS OF 60-70 KTS. WILL LIKELY SEE AN
INCREASE IN IMPACTS DUE TO THE ATTRIBUTABLE THREATS OUTLINED
BELOW:

HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING...

FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR MULTIPLE POINTS ALONG THE
CONNECTICUT RIVER BASIN WITH THE EXPECTATION OF MINOR RIVER
FLOODING...PERHAPS MODERATE FLOODING AT MIDDLE HADDAM. AN AREAL
FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF RI AND THE SURROUNDING
AREA.

EARLIER...THE SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH NOTED ANOMALOUS DEEP
MOISTURE SURGING NORTH FROM THE GULF ON THE ORDER OF 3-4 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL WHILE WPC PUT OUT A SLIGHT RISK TO THE
WEST OF THE REGION OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING.
LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS HIGHLIGHTS A SURGE OF 1.5 INCH PWATS INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COLLOCATED WITH STRONG CONVERGENT H85
MOISTURE TRANSPORT.

COUPLING WITH AN AMPLIFYING LLJ ALREADY OBSERVED BY THE EARLIER
MENTIONED VERTICAL WIND PROFILERS THE CONVERGENT NOSE OF WHICH
LIES OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BENEATH THE RRQ OF AN UPPER-LEVEL
JET...AND CONSIDERING THE APPROACH OF A SHARP COLD FRONT AND DEEP
FRONTOGENETICAL LIFT...AND YOU HAVE A PRETTY GOOD SETUP FOR HEAVY
RAIN AND FLOODING. CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS AND MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE
RATES...AND THERE IS SOME CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY TO WARRANT THE
THREAT OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

THUS THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES WITH THE EXPECTATIONS AS OUTLINED
ABOVE. AVERAGE STORM-TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST AROUND 2
INCHES AND EXPECT LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF AROUND 3 INCHES IN A
TIMEFRAME OF AROUND 6-HOURS.

THE BASIS FOR THE FLOOD WATCH IS DUE TO ALREADY SWOLLEN RIVERS
FROM UPSTREAM SNOWMELT TAKING ON ADDITIONAL WATER AND LIKELY GOING
INTO MINOR FLOOD...POSSIBLY INTO MODERATE FLOOD. RIVER BASINS OF
CONCERN INCLUDE CONNECTICUT/MERRIMACK/PAWCATUCK. ALSO ANTICIPATE
IMPACTS TO LOCAL STREAMS/CREEKS/TRIBUTARIES...ESPECIALLY THOSE
THAT ARE NARROWER AND FLASHIER. THOSE WITH INTERESTS ALONG AREA
RIVERS SHOULD PAY ATTENTION TO THE LATEST FORECASTS AND CURRENT
WATER LEVELS.

THE FLOOD WATCH ALSO INCLUDES URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE ISSUES THE
HEIGHT OF WHICH WILL CENTER AROUND THE DRIVE-HOME COMMUTE FOR MOST
ROADWAYS THROUGHOUT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. CONCERNED FOR THE I-91
CORRIDOR SURROUNDING SPRINGFIELD MA AND HARTFORD CT...AS WELL AS
THE I-95/I-195 CORRIDORS AROUND BOSTON AND PROVIDENCE...EVEN OUT
I-90 INCORPORATING WORCESTER. PONDING OF WATER ALONG AREA ROADWAYS
WILL LIKELY BE A BIG ISSUE TO AREA TRAFFIC.

PLEASE SEE THE COASTAL FLOODING SECTION BELOW FOR COASTAL FLOOD
THREATS.

WINDS...

SEVERAL LOCATIONS ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN NEW ENGLAND OBSERVING
WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS /46 MPH/. WSR-88D VERTICAL WIND
PROFILERS SHOWING WINDS AT H925 AMPLIFYING TO 70 KTS. INCREASING
AREAL COVERAGE OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS AIDING IN THE
PRECIP-DRAG / MECHANICAL MIXING OF FASTER MOMENTUM ALOFT DOWN TO
THE SURFACE. SHOULD SEE THESE WINDS CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. WIND ADVISORIES CONTINUE ACCORDINGLY. ANY HIGH-WINDS TO
WHICH WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR WILL BE HANDLED WITH SHORT-FUSED
WARNINGS.

THOSE TRAVELING OVER BRIDGES /THINKING THE SAGAMORE AND BOURNE/
SHOULD BE AWARE OF FIERCE CROSSWINDS. GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE. ALREADY RECEIVING NUMEROUS REPORTS OF TREES AND
WIRES DOWN...BLOWN TRANSFORMERS AND POWER OUTAGES. THESE IMPACTS
AND THREATS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION.

WINTRY MIX/FLASH FREEZE POTENTIAL...

TEMPERATURES QUICKLY FALLING IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
CONSIDERING THE STRONG DYNAMICS AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RRQ
OF THE UPPER-LEVEL JET ACROSS AND TO THE REAR OF THE FRONT...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING PRECIPITATION WITHIN THE
SHALLOW COLD-AIR MASS.

THUS THERE REMAINS THE POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF CHANGEOVER TO A
SNOW/SLEET MIX...MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF N MA AND S NH ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE ROUTE 2 CORRIDOR. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT
AROUND A TRACE TO PERHAPS A TENTH OR TWO...ENOUGH TO MAKE FOR
SLIPPERY CONDITIONS.

DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REAR OF THE STORM RESULTING IN THE
BACK EDGE OF PRECIP TO DISSIPATE. SHOULD ALSO SEE THIS DRY AIR AT
THE SURFACE. THUS IT IS A QUESTION AS TO WHETHER WET SURFACES FROM
THE RAIN WILL FREEZE AHEAD OF EVAPORATING. EITHER WHICH WAY...THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR BLACK-ICE AND SLIPPERY CONDITIONS THAT MAY
EXIST FOR THE WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...

AN UNSEASONABLY CHILLY AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO WORK INTO THE REGION
AS LARGE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. ANY LEFT OVER
PRECIPITATION SHOULD HAVE EXITED THE CAPE/ISLANDS BY EARLY TO MID
MORNING...AS THE COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE.

NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH DURING THE
MORNING...BUT WILL DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON. ANOMALOUS 850
MB TEMPS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BETWEEN -6C AND -10C ARE EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...PLENTY OF STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE WILL OFFSET THIS TO SOME
DEGREE. ALL IN ALL...MUCH OF THE REGION SHOULD SEE HIGHS RECOVER
WELL INTO THE 40S DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY BUT UNSEASONABLY CHILLY WED/WED NIGHT
* DRY THU INTO FRI AFTERNOON - CHILLY COAST/MILDER AFTERNOON/S INLAND
* A PERIOD OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT BUT LOW CONFIDENCE
* NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL RESULT IN AN UNSEASONABLY COLD NIGHT.
WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS DIMINISHING...THE NORMALLY COLDER
OUTLYING LOCATIONS OF SOUTHWEST NH/NORTHWEST MA WILL PROBABLY SEE
LOWS FALL INTO THE UPPER TEENS.  THE REST OF THE REGION SHOULD SEE
LOW TEMPS FALL INTO THE 20S...TO THE LOWER 30S.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL GENERATE EAST
TO NORTHEAST WINDS AT THE SURFACE.  WHILE DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL
THU INTO FRI AFTERNOON...THE ONSHORE COMPONENT TO THE WIND SHOULD
HOLD HIGH TEMPS IN THE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN MA COAST BOTH
DAYS.  FURTHER INLAND...ENOUGH HEATING SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH
WELL UP INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60 ACROSS THE LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY.
WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG PATCHES THU
NIGHT INTO FRI ALONG THE COAST.  THIS WOULD BE A RESULT OF AN
INCREASING MOIST ONSHORE FLOW.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...

A COUPLE WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY PASS NEAR OR
SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK.  A LOT OF MODEL UNCERTAINTY ON THE
TIMING AND EXACT TRACKS OF THESE WEAK WAVES.  HOWEVER...THEY WILL
RESULT IN A CHANCE FOR A PERIOD OR TWO OF RAIN SHOWERS FRI NIGHT
AND/OR SAT. WHILE A PERIOD OF SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
EVERYWHERE...HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN A PERIOD OF WET WEATHER WILL BE
ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN.  TEMPS LIKELY REMAIN AT LEAST A BIT BELOW
NORMAL.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.  MUCH OF THIS TIME MAY TURN OUT DRY UNTIL
LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT...WHEN THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES WITH
THE RISK FOR RAIN SHOWERS.  TEMPS WILL LIKELY AVERAGE NEAR OR BELOW
NORMAL WITH THE TENDENCY FOR UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IN THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WITH CIGS/VSBYS FALLING IFR-VLIFR WITH
+RA TOWARDS CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING PERIOD. POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED TSRA BUT WITH UNCERTAINTY WILL NOT MENTION IN TAF. STRONG
S-WINDS WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS FOR S/E TERMINALS. DESPITE
THIS...WILL SEE LLWS IMPACTS OVER ALL TERMINALS AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS
ARE AMPLIFYING TO 60-70 KT 2 KFT AGL.

COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE TERMINALS AROUND MIDNIGHT. WILL SEE
WINDS BACK WEST REMAINING GUSTY UP TO 40 KTS. CONDITIONS QUICKLY
IMPROVING TO VFR. MAY SEE RAIN TRANSITION TO SNOW/SLEET BRIEFLY
WITH MINOR ACCUMS. BEST CHANCES OVER NW MA INTO S NH.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 KNOTS WED MORNING SHOULD DIMINISH
SOME BY WED AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY BY WED EVENING.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  A
PERIOD OF MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE IN SOME LOW CLOUDS/FOG
PATCHES AND A ROUND OR TWO OF RAIN SHOWERS.  TIMING AND CONFIDENCE
IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN...BUT BEST CHANCE OF THE LOWER CONDITIONS WILL
BE ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

S-SW WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY SUCH THAT GALE
FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY BY THIS AFTERNOON...CONTINUING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. GALE WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THIS THREAT. THESE
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE W-NW EARLY WED MORNING BUT CONTINUE WITH
GALE FORCE GUSTS UNTIL THEY SUBSIDE BY MID MORNING WED.

SOME HEAVY RAIN/FOG AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WELL.

SEAS INCREASE TO 10-12 FT.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 KNOTS IN
THE MORNING SHOULD LOWER TO SCA LEVELS BY AFTERNOON.  SEAS ACROSS
THE OPEN WATERS WILL REMAIN ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS GIVEN PLENTY OF
LEFT OVER SOUTHERLY SWELL.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL RESULT IN NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 20
TO 25 KNOTS MUCH OF THE TIME.  IN ADDITION...SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER-
WATERS WILL LIKELY REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  POTENTIAL FOR NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS
OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND MARGINAL SCA SEAS CONTINUES.  HOWEVER...EXACT
WIND SPEEDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS WILL DEPEND ON THE TRACK OF A COUPLE
WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE WATERS GUSTING 30 TO 40 MPH WILL
YIELD AN AVERAGE 1.5 FOOT SURGE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. COMBINED
WITH HIGH TIDE AROUND 9-10 PM /NOT ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH/...THERE
IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SPLASHOVER ALONG LOW-LYING AREAS...BUT AT
THIS PRESENT TIME WE ARE NOT CONSIDERING MINOR COASTAL FLOODING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MAZ002>021-026.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MAZ004>007-
     012>024-026.
NH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR NHZ011-012-015.
RI...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR RIZ001>007.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR RIZ001>008.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ232-233-235-237-
     250-254>256.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ230-231-234-236-
     251.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...FRANK/SIPPRELL
MARINE...FRANK/DOODY
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...SIPPRELL




000
FXUS61 KALY 151745
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
145 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING PERIODS OF LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE REGION...AND EVEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON.
BEHIND THE FRONT...WILL COME AN ABRUPT CHANGE TO SHARPLY COLDER
WEATHER BY TONIGHT. RAIN WILL TURN TO ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS...AND TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS REMAINDER OF
THE REGION. THE SUN WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY BUT IT WILL MUCH
COOLER THAN TODAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR AREAS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION INCLUDING RENSSELAER COUNTY.

THE COLD FRONT IS INTO THE ADIRONDACKS...CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY AND
CATSKILLS...AND ACCELERATING EASTWARD. THERE IS A LINE OF ENHANCED
SHALLOW CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...AND AREAS ALONG AND
EAST OF THE COLD FRONT WILL SEE A BURST OF HEAVY RAIN AND
LOCALIZED URBAN NUISANCE FLOODING. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHOULD
RAPIDLY INCREASE OVER EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THIS
AFTERNOON...AND SOME WIND GUSTS FROM THE TACONICS...TO THE
SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND BERKSHIRES COULD REACH 40 TO 50
MPH...THAT COULD BRING SOME LOOSE TREE LIMBS DOWN.

THE FRONT SHOULD BE INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND WELL EAST BY THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE 30S IN MOST AREAS BY SUNSET...MAYBE SOME 20S IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW HAS BEEN SLOW IN CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN NY SO FAR AND A BRIEF CHANGEOVER IS STILL EXPECTED TO
REACH WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. JUST SOME
MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP TO OUR EAST AND PURE ARCTIC AIR
WILL SEND EVERYONE BELOW FREEZING...GENERALLY MID TO UPPER 20S.
FURTHER NORTH AND WEST TEENS WILL BE COMMON IN THE ADIRONDACKS. A
GUSTY WEST WIND WILL ADD TO THE CHILL BUT AGAIN SHOULD REMAIN JUST
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE COLD AIR WILL ALLOW ALL AREAS TO THE
RAIN END AS SOME SNOW SHOWERS.

ACCUMULATION OF SNOW LOOK TO BE 1-4 INCHES ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS
AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION COULD SEE A
COATING TO PERHAPS 2 INCHES WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. NO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WERE ISSUED WITH
THIS PACKAGE BUT COULD BE LATER TODAY.

ALL PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO END SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT FOLLOWED BY
PARTIAL CLEAR.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY BUT WITH TEMPERATURES MORE
TYPICAL OF MID MARCH THAN MID APRIL. DAYTIME HIGHS LOOK TO ONLY THE
UPPER 40S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD...WHILE THE
REMAINDER OF THE HUDSON VALLEY WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT ONLY AROUND
40-45 DEGREES. HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL REMAIN MAINLY IN THE 30S. A
NORTHWEST BREEZE 10 TO 20 MPH WILL ADD TO THE CHILL AT TIMES.
HOWEVER...A STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE SHOULD NEGATE THAT CHILL A
LITTLE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT UNDER A MAINLY CLEAR SKY AND DIMINISHING
WIND...IDEAL RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS WILL ENSUE. THE ONLY MITIGATING
FACTOR IS THAT OUR NIGHTTIME HOURS ARE NOW LESS THAN 11 HOURS IN
LENGTH. BY THE END OF THE NIGHT SOME AREAS COULD PICK A LITTLE BIT
OF A SOUTHERLY BREEZE BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD DECOUPLE. LOOK FOR LOWS
AGAIN IN THE TEENS NORTH AND 20S SOUTH. THESE VALUES WILL BE PRETTY
CLOSE TO RECORD LOWS IN SOME CASES...BUT NOT QUITE ECLIPSING THEM.

BY THURSDAY...THE STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
MODERATE THIS CHILLING AIRMASS. WE ARE FORECASTING TEMPERATURES TO
CLIMB JUST SHY OF NORMAL HIGHS FOR MID APRILS. THAT WOULD GENERALLY
BE IN THE 50S...UPPER 50S LOCALLY.

HOWEVER...AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER US ON THURSDAY NIGHT
FROM THE NORTHEAST  THIS FEATURE WILL PROVIDE A CONTINUATION OF A
MAINLY CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WIND ONCE MORE. THEREFORE..WE WILL HAVE
AT LEAST ONE MORE NIGHT WITH GENERALLY SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES IN
THE 20S TO NEAR 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST SHOULD START OUT WITH
GENERALLY PLEASANT CONDITIONS...WITH NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY INCREASES AS
WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND...AS THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION OF AN UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES OR OHIO VALLEY REGION
REACHING THE AREA...ALONG WITH SOME POSSIBLE INFLUX OF SOME
GULF/ATLANTIC MOISTURE...CREATING CLOUDS AND SOME RAIN SHOWERS.
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS COULD LINGER INTO SUNDAY BEFORE
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT BY MONDAY.

FOR FRI INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...A LOW LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD EXTEND INTO THE REGION FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...KEEPING
OUR REGION GENERALLY DRY INTO EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THE SYSTEM TO
OUR WEST AND INCREASING ATLANTIC MOISTURE CONVERGE ON THE REGION
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO SLIGHT TO LOW
CHANCE. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 30S.

SAT-SUN...MOST MODELS AND ENSEMBLE SUITES SUGGEST THAT A SHORTWAVE
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION BRINGS SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION...ESP ON SAT...WITH SOME RAIN SHOWERS.
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ALSO IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
REGION. THESE TWO DISTURBANCES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN UNPHASED AT
THIS TIME. IN ADDITION...THE SOUTHERN DISTURBANCE MAY LIMIT THE
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY TO THE NORTHERN SYSTEM. NEVERTHELESS...WILL
KEEP 40-50 PERCENT POPS FOR SHOWERS ON SAT...TAPERING TO AROUND 30
PERCENT SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT SUNDAY. HIGHS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE
MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN ANOTHER SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE TO
LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON MONDAY. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
MID 30S TO AROUND 40. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS THE REGION EARLY IN THE TAF
PERIOD BRINGING MVFR FLYING CONDITIONS TO ALL THE TAF SITES. VFR
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY 06Z AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION.

THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...COLD FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
PREDOMINATELY MVFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY THESE
SHOWERS...EXCEPT FOR INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF IFR AT KPSF.

SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL RANGE FROM 12-18 KNOTS
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 25-30 KNOTS. AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH THE REGION IN THE 21Z-00Z TIMEFRAME...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE NORTHWEST BUT REMAIN GUSTY AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25
KNOTS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO DRAG DRAMATICALLY COLDER AIR INTO THE
REGION IN ITS WAKE...AS TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET INTO THE LOW AND
MID 30S BY 00Z. WHILE THE PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD REMAIN
RAIN...THERE MAY BE A LIGHT MIXTURE OF SNOW AND SLEET AROUND
00Z...BUT EXPECT THIS TRANSITION TO OCCUR AFTER 00Z AT THIS TIME.

TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BY 00Z THE TAF SITES WILL BE TRANSITIONING
TO A SNOW/SLEET/RAIN MIX AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO FALL BEFORE
BECOMING ALL SNOW BY 03Z. THERE WILL NOT BE AS MUCH MOISTURE BEHIND
THE FRONT SO HAVE MENTIONED JUST -SHSN IN THE TAFS WITH A COATING TO
PERHAPS AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KGFL AND
KPSF.

SKIES WILL RAPIDLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 06Z AND BECOME SKC
BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS...BEFORE INCREASING
SLIGHTLY TO END THE TAF PERIOD AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25
KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY-SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS TODAY...

MOST OF OUR REGION IS NOW SNOW FREE. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WAS ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE SNOW COVER REMAINED.

A SOAKING RAIN IS FORECAST FOR ALL REGIONS WITH OVER A QUARTER OF AN
INCH TODAY. A "WET FLAG" WAS ASSIGNED TO ALL FWM SITES ON MONDAY.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL DRIVE MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION BY
TONIGHT. RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACK BY DAY/ END
WITH A MINOR ACCUMULATION EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION COULD SEE RAIN ENDING AS SNOW SHOWERS THIS
EVENING...WITH COATING OF SNOW POSSIBLE.

SUNSHINE RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH A BRISK WEST WIND 5 TO 15
MPH...BUT GUSTING UP TO 25-30 MPH.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR THE ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY/LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA
REGION CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TACONICS...SOUTHERN VERMONT AND THE
NORTHERN BERKSHIRES.

WE ALREADY HAVE SOME HYDRO ISSUES DUE TO RAPID SNOWMELT...THANKS TO
NOT ONLY WARM AFTERNOON HIGHS...BUT TEMPERATURES REMAINING WAY ABOVE
FREEZING AT NIGHT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL EVOLVE INTO A WIDESPREAD RAIN TODAY ACROSS
THE REGION. AS A STRONG COLD FRONT PLOWS INTO AN INCREASINGLY MOIST
AIR MASS...WITH PWATS APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES...BY AFTERNOON A LINE
OF VERY HEAVY TO TORRENTIAL SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE. RAINFALL RATES
COULD APPROACH HALF AN INCH PER HOUR AT TIMES. OVERALL WE ARE
LOOKING FOR 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN. IF THUNDERSTORMS WERE TO
HAPPEN...AMOUNTS COULD LOCALLY EXCEED 2 INCHES...PERHAPS CLOSER TO 3
INCHES.

THIS TYPE OF RAIN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MARKED RISES ON MOST RIVERS
AND STREAMS. SEVERAL POINTS ON OUR RIVERS ARE PROJECTED TO REACH
MINOR OR EVEN MODERATE FLOOD. ALSO...THE HEAVY RAIN RATE WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO SOME PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND AREAS OF POOR
DRAINAGE. THERE IS EVEN A SLIGHT CHANCE A LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
RIGHT NOW THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING WAS NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS THE CHANCES ARE UNDER 25 PERCENT BUT CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE. PLEASE REFER BACK TO THE PORTION OF THE AFD LATER ON IF
YOU ARE CONCERNED ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY FLOODING.

AS COLDER AIR POURS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...RAIN WILL TURN TO
SNOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...PRODUCING MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. FURTHER SOUTH AND
EAST...THE PRECIPITATION COULD EVEN END AS SNOW SHOWERS WITH A
COATING IN PLACES.

THIS COLDER AIR WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING EVERYWHERE
OVERNIGHT...THUS SLOWING DOWN THE RUNOFF. HOWEVER...LARGE STEM
RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND NOT CREST UNTIL WEDNESDAY.

DRY WEATHER IS IN STORE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR NYZ032-033-038>043-
     050-053-054-082>084.
MA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MAZ001.
VT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/NAS
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/NAS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV








000
FXUS61 KALY 151719
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
119 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING PERIODS OF LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE REGION...AND EVEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON.
BEHIND THE FRONT...WILL COME AN ABRUPT CHANGE TO SHARPLY COLDER
WEATHER BY TONIGHT. RAIN WILL TURN TO ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS...AND TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS REMAINDER OF
THE REGION. THE SUN WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY BUT IT WILL MUCH
COOLER THAN TODAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR AREAS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION INCLUDING RENSSELAER COUNTY.

THE COLD FRONT IS INTO THE ADIRONDACKS...CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY AND
CATSKILLS...AND ACCELERATING EASTWARD. THERE IS A LINE OF ENHANCED
SHALLOW CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...AND AREAS ALONG AND
EAST OF THE COLD FRONT WILL SEE A BURST OF HEAVY RAIN AND
LOCALIZED URBAN NUISANCE FLOODING. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHOULD
RAPIDLY INCREASE OVER EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THIS
AFTERNOON...AND SOME WIND GUSTS FROM THE TACONICS...TO THE
SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND BERKSHIRES COULD REACH 40 TO 50
MPH...THAT COULD BRING SOME LOOSE TREE LIMBS DOWN.

THE FRONT SHOULD BE INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND WELL EAST BY THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE 30S IN MOST AREAS BY SUNSET...MAYBE SOME 20S IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW HAS BEEN SLOW IN CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN NY SO FAR AND A BRIEF CHANGEOVER IS STILL EXPECTED TO
REACH WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. JUST SOME
MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP TO OUR EAST AND PURE ARCTIC AIR
WILL SEND EVERYONE BELOW FREEZING...GENERALLY MID TO UPPER 20S.
FURTHER NORTH AND WEST TEENS WILL BE COMMON IN THE ADIRONDACKS. A
GUSTY WEST WIND WILL ADD TO THE CHILL BUT AGAIN SHOULD REMAIN JUST
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE COLD AIR WILL ALLOW ALL AREAS TO THE
RAIN END AS SOME SNOW SHOWERS.

ACCUMULATION OF SNOW LOOK TO BE 1-4 INCHES ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS
AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION COULD SEE A
COATING TO PERHAPS 2 INCHES WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. NO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WERE ISSUED WITH
THIS PACKAGE BUT COULD BE LATER TODAY.

ALL PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO END SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT FOLLOWED BY
PARTIAL CLEAR.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY BUT WITH TEMPERATURES MORE
TYPICAL OF MID MARCH THAN MID APRIL. DAYTIME HIGHS LOOK TO ONLY THE
UPPER 40S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD...WHILE THE
REMAINDER OF THE HUDSON VALLEY WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT ONLY AROUND
40-45 DEGREES. HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL REMAIN MAINLY IN THE 30S. A
NORTHWEST BREEZE 10 TO 20 MPH WILL ADD TO THE CHILL AT TIMES.
HOWEVER...A STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE SHOULD NEGATE THAT CHILL A
LITTLE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT UNDER A MAINLY CLEAR SKY AND DIMINISHING
WIND...IDEAL RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS WILL ENSUE. THE ONLY MITIGATING
FACTOR IS THAT OUR NIGHTTIME HOURS ARE NOW LESS THAN 11 HOURS IN
LENGTH. BY THE END OF THE NIGHT SOME AREAS COULD PICK A LITTLE BIT
OF A SOUTHERLY BREEZE BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD DECOUPLE. LOOK FOR LOWS
AGAIN IN THE TEENS NORTH AND 20S SOUTH. THESE VALUES WILL BE PRETTY
CLOSE TO RECORD LOWS IN SOME CASES...BUT NOT QUITE ECLIPSING THEM.

BY THURSDAY...THE STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
MODERATE THIS CHILLING AIRMASS. WE ARE FORECASTING TEMPERATURES TO
CLIMB JUST SHY OF NORMAL HIGHS FOR MID APRILS. THAT WOULD GENERALLY
BE IN THE 50S...UPPER 50S LOCALLY.

HOWEVER...AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER US ON THURSDAY NIGHT
FROM THE NORTHEAST  THIS FEATURE WILL PROVIDE A CONTINUATION OF A
MAINLY CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WIND ONCE MORE. THEREFORE..WE WILL HAVE
AT LEAST ONE MORE NIGHT WITH GENERALLY SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES IN
THE 20S TO NEAR 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST SHOULD START OUT WITH
GENERALLY PLEASANT CONDITIONS...WITH NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY INCREASES AS
WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND...AS THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION OF AN UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES OR OHIO VALLEY REGION
REACHING THE AREA...ALONG WITH SOME POSSIBLE INFLUX OF SOME
GULF/ATLANTIC MOISTURE...CREATING CLOUDS AND SOME RAIN SHOWERS.
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS COULD LINGER INTO SUNDAY BEFORE
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT BY MONDAY.

FOR FRI INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...A LOW LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD EXTEND INTO THE REGION FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...KEEPING
OUR REGION GENERALLY DRY INTO EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THE SYSTEM TO
OUR WEST AND INCREASING ATLANTIC MOISTURE CONVERGE ON THE REGION
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO SLIGHT TO LOW
CHANCE. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 30S.

SAT-SUN...MOST MODELS AND ENSEMBLE SUITES SUGGEST THAT A SHORTWAVE
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION BRINGS SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION...ESP ON SAT...WITH SOME RAIN SHOWERS.
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ALSO IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
REGION. THESE TWO DISTURBANCES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN UNPHASED AT
THIS TIME. IN ADDITION...THE SOUTHERN DISTURBANCE MAY LIMIT THE
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY TO THE NORTHERN SYSTEM. NEVERTHELESS...WILL
KEEP 40-50 PERCENT POPS FOR SHOWERS ON SAT...TAPERING TO AROUND 30
PERCENT SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT SUNDAY. HIGHS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE
MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN ANOTHER SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE TO
LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON MONDAY. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
MID 30S TO AROUND 40. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS THE REGION EARLY IN THE TAF
PERIOD BRINGING IFR/MVFR FLYING CONDITIONS TO ALL THE TAF SITES.
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY 06Z AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION.

THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...COLD FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
PREDOMINATELY MVFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY THESE
SHOWERS...BUT HAVE INTRODUCED IFR TEMPO GROUPS UNTIL 20Z TO ACCOUNT
FOR EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS BRIEFLY REDUCING VISIBILITIES AND
LOWERING CEILINGS FURTHER.

SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL RANGE FROM 12-18 KNOTS
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 25-30 KNOTS. AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH THE REGION IN THE 21Z-00Z TIMEFRAME...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE NORTHWEST BUT REMAIN GUSTY AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25
KNOTS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO DRAG DRAMATICALLY COLDER AIR INTO THE
REGION IN ITS WAKE...AS TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET INTO THE LOW AND
MID 30S BY 00Z. WHILE THE PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD REMAIN
RAIN...THERE MAY BE A LIGHT MIXTURE OF SNOW AND SLEET AROUND
00Z...BUT EXPECT THIS TRANSITION TO OCCUR AFTER 00Z AT THIS TIME.

TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BY 00Z THE TAF SITES WILL BE TRANSITIONING
TO A SNOW/SLEET/RAIN MIX AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO FALL BEFORE
BECOMING ALL SNOW BY 03Z. THERE WILL NOT BE AS MUCH MOISTURE BEHIND
THE FRONT SO HAVE MENTIONED JUST -SHSN IN THE TAFS WITH A COATING TO
PERHAPS AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KGFL AND
KPSF.

SKIES WILL RAPIDLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 06Z AND BECOME SKC
BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS...BEFORE INCREASING
SLIGHTLY TO END THE TAF PERIOD AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25
KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY-SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS TODAY...

MOST OF OUR REGION IS NOW SNOW FREE. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WAS ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE SNOW COVER REMAINED.

A SOAKING RAIN IS FORECAST FOR ALL REGIONS WITH OVER A QUARTER OF AN
INCH TODAY. A "WET FLAG" WAS ASSIGNED TO ALL FWM SITES ON MONDAY.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL DRIVE MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION BY
TONIGHT. RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACK BY DAY/ END
WITH A MINOR ACCUMULATION EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION COULD SEE RAIN ENDING AS SNOW SHOWERS THIS
EVENING...WITH COATING OF SNOW POSSIBLE.

SUNSHINE RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH A BRISK WEST WIND 5 TO 15
MPH...BUT GUSTING UP TO 25-30 MPH.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR THE ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY/LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA
REGION CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TACONICS...SOUTHERN VERMONT AND THE
NORTHERN BERKSHIRES.

WE ALREADY HAVE SOME HYDRO ISSUES DUE TO RAPID SNOWMELT...THANKS TO
NOT ONLY WARM AFTERNOON HIGHS...BUT TEMPERATURES REMAINING WAY ABOVE
FREEZING AT NIGHT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL EVOLVE INTO A WIDESPREAD RAIN TODAY ACROSS
THE REGION. AS A STRONG COLD FRONT PLOWS INTO AN INCREASINGLY MOIST
AIR MASS...WITH PWATS APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES...BY AFTERNOON A LINE
OF VERY HEAVY TO TORRENTIAL SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE. RAINFALL RATES
COULD APPROACH HALF AN INCH PER HOUR AT TIMES. OVERALL WE ARE
LOOKING FOR 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN. IF THUNDERSTORMS WERE TO
HAPPEN...AMOUNTS COULD LOCALLY EXCEED 2 INCHES...PERHAPS CLOSER TO 3
INCHES.

THIS TYPE OF RAIN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MARKED RISES ON MOST RIVERS
AND STREAMS. SEVERAL POINTS ON OUR RIVERS ARE PROJECTED TO REACH
MINOR OR EVEN MODERATE FLOOD. ALSO...THE HEAVY RAIN RATE WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO SOME PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND AREAS OF POOR
DRAINAGE. THERE IS EVEN A SLIGHT CHANCE A LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
RIGHT NOW THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING WAS NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS THE CHANCES ARE UNDER 25 PERCENT BUT CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE. PLEASE REFER BACK TO THE PORTION OF THE AFD LATER ON IF
YOU ARE CONCERNED ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY FLOODING.

AS COLDER AIR POURS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...RAIN WILL TURN TO
SNOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...PRODUCING MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. FURTHER SOUTH AND
EAST...THE PRECIPITATION COULD EVEN END AS SNOW SHOWERS WITH A
COATING IN PLACES.

THIS COLDER AIR WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING EVERYWHERE
OVERNIGHT...THUS SLOWING DOWN THE RUNOFF. HOWEVER...LARGE STEM
RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND NOT CREST UNTIL WEDNESDAY.

DRY WEATHER IS IN STORE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR NYZ032-033-038>043-
     050-053-054-082>084.
MA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MAZ001.
VT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/NAS
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/NAS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV








000
FXUS61 KALY 151656
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1256 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING PERIODS OF LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE REGION...AND EVEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON.
BEHIND THE FRONT...WILL COME AN ABRUPT CHANGE TO SHARPLY COLDER
WEATHER BY TONIGHT. RAIN WILL TURN TO ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS...AND TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS REMAINDER OF
THE REGION. THE SUN WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY BUT IT WILL MUCH
COOLER THAN TODAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR AREAS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION INCLUDING RENSSELAER COUNTY.

THE COLD FRONT IS INTO THE ADIRONDACKS...CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY AND
CATSKILLS...AND ACCELERATING EASTWARD. THERE IS A LINE OF ENHANCED
SHALLOW CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...AND AREAS ALONG AND
EAST OF THE COLD FRONT WILL SEE A BURST OF HEAVY RAIN AND
LOCALIZED URBAN NUISANCE FLOODING. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHOULD
RAPIDLY INCREASE OVER EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THIS
AFTERNOON...AND SOME WIND GUSTS FROM THE TACONICS...TO THE
SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND BERKSHIRES COULD REACH 40 TO 50
MPH...THAT COULD BRING SOME LOOSE TREE LIMBS DOWN.

THE FRONT SHOULD BE INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND WELL EAST BY THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE 30S IN MOST AREAS BY SUNSET...MAYBE SOME 20S IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW HAS BEEN SLOW IN CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN NY SO FAR AND A BRIEF CHANGEOVER IS STILL EXPECTED TO
REACH WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. JUST SOME
MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP TO OUR EAST AND PURE ARCTIC AIR
WILL SEND EVERYONE BELOW FREEZING...GENERALLY MID TO UPPER 20S.
FURTHER NORTH AND WEST TEENS WILL BE COMMON IN THE ADIRONDACKS. A
GUSTY WEST WIND WILL ADD TO THE CHILL BUT AGAIN SHOULD REMAIN JUST
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE COLD AIR WILL ALLOW ALL AREAS TO THE
RAIN END AS SOME SNOW SHOWERS.

ACCUMULATION OF SNOW LOOK TO BE 1-4 INCHES ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS
AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION COULD SEE A
COATING TO PERHAPS 2 INCHES WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. NO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WERE ISSUED WITH
THIS PACKAGE BUT COULD BE LATER TODAY.

ALL PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO END SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT FOLLOWED BY
PARTIAL CLEAR.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY BUT WITH TEMPERATURES MORE
TYPICAL OF MID MARCH THAN MID APRIL. DAYTIME HIGHS LOOK TO ONLY THE
UPPER 40S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD...WHILE THE
REMAINDER OF THE HUDSON VALLEY WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT ONLY AROUND
40-45 DEGREES. HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL REMAIN MAINLY IN THE 30S. A
NORTHWEST BREEZE 10 TO 20 MPH WILL ADD TO THE CHILL AT TIMES.
HOWEVER...A STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE SHOULD NEGATE THAT CHILL A
LITTLE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT UNDER A MAINLY CLEAR SKY AND DIMINISHING
WIND...IDEAL RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS WILL ENSUE. THE ONLY MITIGATING
FACTOR IS THAT OUR NIGHTTIME HOURS ARE NOW LESS THAN 11 HOURS IN
LENGTH. BY THE END OF THE NIGHT SOME AREAS COULD PICK A LITTLE BIT
OF A SOUTHERLY BREEZE BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD DECOUPLE. LOOK FOR LOWS
AGAIN IN THE TEENS NORTH AND 20S SOUTH. THESE VALUES WILL BE PRETTY
CLOSE TO RECORD LOWS IN SOME CASES...BUT NOT QUITE ECLIPSING THEM.

BY THURSDAY...THE STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
MODERATE THIS CHILLING AIRMASS. WE ARE FORECASTING TEMPERATURES TO
CLIMB JUST SHY OF NORMAL HIGHS FOR MID APRILS. THAT WOULD GENERALLY
BE IN THE 50S...UPPER 50S LOCALLY.

HOWEVER...AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER US ON THURSDAY NIGHT
FROM THE NORTHEAST  THIS FEATURE WILL PROVIDE A CONTINUATION OF A
MAINLY CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WIND ONCE MORE. THEREFORE..WE WILL HAVE
AT LEAST ONE MORE NIGHT WITH GENERALLY SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES IN
THE 20S TO NEAR 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST SHOULD START OUT WITH
GENERALLY PLEASANT CONDITIONS...WITH NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY INCREASES AS
WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND...AS THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION OF AN UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES OR OHIO VALLEY REGION
REACHING THE AREA...ALONG WITH SOME POSSIBLE INFLUX OF SOME
GULF/ATLANTIC MOISTURE...CREATING CLOUDS AND SOME RAIN SHOWERS.
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS COULD LINGER INTO SUNDAY BEFORE
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT BY MONDAY.

FOR FRI INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...A LOW LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD EXTEND INTO THE REGION FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...KEEPING
OUR REGION GENERALLY DRY INTO EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THE SYSTEM TO
OUR WEST AND INCREASING ATLANTIC MOISTURE CONVERGE ON THE REGION
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO SLIGHT TO LOW
CHANCE. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 30S.

SAT-SUN...MOST MODELS AND ENSEMBLE SUITES SUGGEST THAT A SHORTWAVE
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION BRINGS SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION...ESP ON SAT...WITH SOME RAIN SHOWERS.
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ALSO IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
REGION. THESE TWO DISTURBANCES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN UNPHASED AT
THIS TIME. IN ADDITION...THE SOUTHERN DISTURBANCE MAY LIMIT THE
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY TO THE NORTHERN SYSTEM. NEVERTHELESS...WILL
KEEP 40-50 PERCENT POPS FOR SHOWERS ON SAT...TAPERING TO AROUND 30
PERCENT SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT SUNDAY. HIGHS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE
MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN ANOTHER SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE TO
LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON MONDAY. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
MID 30S TO AROUND 40. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IFR/MVFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE TAF SITES FOR MUCH OF
THE PERIOD AS A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT AND RAIN SHOWERS AFFECT THE
REGION.

THIS MORNING...PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS WILL OPEN THE TAF
PERIOD...WITH MVFR CEILINGS AT KPOU AND KPSF. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
A LOW STRATUS DECK WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD BY MID-MORNING WITH
MAINLY MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS. DEPENDING ON THE INTENSITY OF
THE SHOWERS...THERE MAY BE OCCASIONAL IFR FLYING CONDITIONS AS WELL
AND HAVE INDICATED THIS WITH TEMPO GROUPS BEGINNING AT 15Z.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AROUND 12-16 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-25
KNOTS.

THIS AFTERNOON...AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST RAIN
SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN MAINLY IFR FLYING CONDITIONS. THERE MAY BE A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS WELL BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS
POINT IN TIME TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. WINDS WILL VEER THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON HOURS FROM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AT KALB.

THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE EVENING HOURS...USHERING IN DRAMATICALLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT...HOWEVER SHOWERS WILL LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT. HAVE
INTRODUCED A PERIOD OF LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION IN THE TAFS AFTER
00Z...WITH A MIXTURE OF SNOW...RAIN AND SLEET. AS COLDER
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WORK INTO THE REGION THE PRECIPITATION WILL
TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS AFTER 03Z AND QUICKLY END BY 09Z WITH
LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.

WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AROUND 10
KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS TODAY...

MOST OF OUR REGION IS NOW SNOW FREE. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WAS ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE SNOW COVER REMAINED.

A SOAKING RAIN IS FORECAST FOR ALL REGIONS WITH OVER A QUARTER OF AN
INCH TODAY. A "WET FLAG" WAS ASSIGNED TO ALL FWM SITES ON MONDAY.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL DRIVE MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION BY
TONIGHT. RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACK BY DAY/ END
WITH A MINOR ACCUMULATION EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION COULD SEE RAIN ENDING AS SNOW SHOWERS THIS
EVENING...WITH COATING OF SNOW POSSIBLE.

SUNSHINE RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH A BRISK WEST WIND 5 TO 15
MPH...BUT GUSTING UP TO 25-30 MPH.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR THE ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY/LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA
REGION CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TACONICS...SOUTHERN VERMONT AND THE
NORTHERN BERKSHIRES.

WE ALREADY HAVE SOME HYDRO ISSUES DUE TO RAPID SNOWMELT...THANKS TO
NOT ONLY WARM AFTERNOON HIGHS...BUT TEMPERATURES REMAINING WAY ABOVE
FREEZING AT NIGHT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL EVOLVE INTO A WIDESPREAD RAIN TODAY ACROSS
THE REGION. AS A STRONG COLD FRONT PLOWS INTO AN INCREASINGLY MOIST
AIR MASS...WITH PWATS APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES...BY AFTERNOON A LINE
OF VERY HEAVY TO TORRENTIAL SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE. RAINFALL RATES
COULD APPROACH HALF AN INCH PER HOUR AT TIMES. OVERALL WE ARE
LOOKING FOR 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN. IF THUNDERSTORMS WERE TO
HAPPEN...AMOUNTS COULD LOCALLY EXCEED 2 INCHES...PERHAPS CLOSER TO 3
INCHES.

THIS TYPE OF RAIN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MARKED RISES ON MOST RIVERS
AND STREAMS. SEVERAL POINTS ON OUR RIVERS ARE PROJECTED TO REACH
MINOR OR EVEN MODERATE FLOOD. ALSO...THE HEAVY RAIN RATE WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO SOME PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND AREAS OF POOR
DRAINAGE. THERE IS EVEN A SLIGHT CHANCE A LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
RIGHT NOW THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING WAS NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS THE CHANCES ARE UNDER 25 PERCENT BUT CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE. PLEASE REFER BACK TO THE PORTION OF THE AFD LATER ON IF
YOU ARE CONCERNED ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY FLOODING.

AS COLDER AIR POURS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...RAIN WILL TURN TO
SNOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...PRODUCING MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. FURTHER SOUTH AND
EAST...THE PRECIPITATION COULD EVEN END AS SNOW SHOWERS WITH A
COATING IN PLACES.

THIS COLDER AIR WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING EVERYWHERE
OVERNIGHT...THUS SLOWING DOWN THE RUNOFF. HOWEVER...LARGE STEM
RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND NOT CREST UNTIL WEDNESDAY.

DRY WEATHER IS IN STORE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR NYZ032-033-038>043-
     050-053-054-082>084.
MA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MAZ001.
VT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/NAS
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/NAS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV








000
FXUS61 KOKX 151529
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1129 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST OF THE REGION TOWARDS THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...WEAKENING DURING THE PROCESS. LOW PRESSURE ALONG A STALLED
FRONT TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION APPROACHES FRIDAY AND PASSES EAST
OF THE REGION SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AND OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
INGREDIENTS COMING TOGETHER FOR HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON AS
A STRONG COLD FRONT COMBINES WITH ANOMALOUSLY HIGH MOISTURE....PW
VALUES ABOUT 1.5 INCHES...AND BOTH LOW- AND UPPER- LEVEL JET
DYNAMICS. THERE ARE TWO AREAS OF RAIN THIS MORNING...SHOWERS
ACROSS EASTERN LI AND CT...ASSOCIATED WITH A 60 TO 70 KT LOW-LEVEL
JET THAT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...AND
THEN THE FRONTAL BAND ACROSS EASTERN PA AND WESTERN NJ. THE AREA
WILL FILL BETWEEN THESE TWO AREAS AS THE MAIN BAND WORKS EAST AT
ABOUT 30 MPH. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS A NICE PLUME
OF MOISTURE INTERSECTING THE FRONT,,,ORIGINATING OVER THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEX. THUS...HAVE RAISED RAINFALL TOTALS BY ABOUT A 1/4
INCH IN MOST LOCATIONS...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS NEAR 2 INCHES
ACROSS EASTERN LI AND MUCH OF CT...WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER AMOUNTS
WEST. THE THREAT OF URBAN AND LOW LYING FLOODING IS LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON.

IN ADDITION...EXPECTING ISOLATED THUNDER WITH GUSTY WIND AS LOW
LEVELS WINDS ARE POTENTIALLY BROUGHT TO THE SURFACE...POTENTLY
FOR WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH. GUST UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE COMMON
THIS AFT...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION THIS EVENING INTO LATE TONIGHT WITH
THE PRECIPITATION ENDING. FORCING DIMINISHES QUICKLY WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL SOME LINGERING SHOWERS POST FRONTAL
POSSIBLE. MUCH COLDER AIR LAGS BEHIND THE FRONT THAT MUCH OF THE
PRECIPITATION IS ENDED BY THAT TIME. THERE IS JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SNOW SHOWERS JUST TO THE VICINITY OF THE NEW YORK CITY METRO AREA
LATE TONIGHT. AND NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA TONIGHT WITH LOWS 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FREEZING OR NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. AND WITH THE GROWING SEASON
BEGINNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND
NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY HAVE ISSUED A FREEZING WARNING.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR WEDNESDAY WITH A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND IN
THE MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS
WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S...WHILE NORMAL HIGHS ARE IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAIN UPPER LEVEL JET SOUTH OF THE REGION MID TO LATE THIS WEEK WITH
AS BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS. A SHORTWAVE IN
THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL WITH ACCOMPANYING JET STREAK WILL MOVE IN
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AND EXIT EAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE REGION WILL THEN BE ON A NORTHEAST SIDE OF A LARGE
WEAK...RATHER FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING
SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE TRANSLATING NORTHEAST INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL ALLOW FOR A COOLER MARITIME TYPE OF AIR MASS
TO BE WITHIN THE REGION AS WE GET INTO A NORTHEAST FLOW REGIME. THIS
CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY BUT WITH WEAKENING WINDS...THE AIR MASS WILL
GRADUALLY MODERATE WITH A RESULTING SLOW INCREASE IN DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES EACH DAY.

IN TERMS OF WEATHER...DRY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THEREAFTER...A
TREND TOWARDS A MORE WET PATTERN EVIDENT STARTING FRIDAY WITH LOW
PRESSURE IN SOUTHEAST DEVELOPING AND APPROACHING ALONG A STALLED
FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS A TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING. CMC ONLY
MODEL SHOWING VERY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS
FRIDAY WITH GREATER MODEL AGREEMENT ON RAINFALL FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY.

THIS COMES WITH THE APPROACH OF THE TROUGH AND GREATER MOISTURE AND
WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW. RESIDUAL LIGHT NORTHEAST
FLOW AT THE SURFACE FURTHER INCREASES THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE.

THE TROUGH AXIS PUSHES EAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING
FOR A DRIER TREND TO WEATHER AS SHOWERS TAPER OFF AS MORE OF A
NORTHERLY FLOW WITH LESS EASTERLY COMPONENT SETTLES IN.

EARLY NEXT WEEK RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS AS HIGH PRES MOVES ACROSS AREA
AND EVENTUALLY OFFSHORE. AIR MASS WILL FURTHER MODERATE WITH WARMER
AND MORE MOIST AIR MASS MOVING IN.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VARYING AND DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. PRECIPITATION IS FILLING IN OVER CITY TERMINALS AND
WESTWARD. THESE AREAS SHOULD SEE SHRA BY 15Z OR THEREAFTER.

HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS WITH STRONG SLY FLOW DURING THE DAY. THERE
IS A POSSIBILITY THAT WINDS COULD SHIFT MORE SOUTHEASTERLY JUST
BEFORE THE FROPA WHICH WILL BE BETWEEN 22Z AND 03Z ACROSS THE
AREA. WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH GUSTS UP TO
20-30KTS WITH OCNL GUSTS UP TO 35 KTS FOR THE DAY. WINDS SHIFTING
S -SW-NW DURING THIS TIME AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH 22Z-03Z.
WINDS WILL TAPER OFF SLIGHTLY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...THEN
INCREASE AGAIN AS THE WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW. GUSTS UP TO AROUND 35
KTS LIKELY TONIGHT WITH PSBL GUSTS TO 40 KTS.

LLWS ISSUES PERSISTING THROUGH LATE AFTN...WITH GENERALLY 50-60
KTS BETWEEN 1-2KFT. SLIGHTLY HIGHER LLWS OF UP TO 65 KT FOR
EASTERN SECTIONS SUCH AS KISP AND KGON AS LOW LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENS OVER THESE AREAS THIS MORNING. AS THE JET PUSHES EAST
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT...LLWS WILL DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON.

LIGHT RAIN HAS MOVED INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING...WITH INCREASING
INTENSITY AND COVERAGE EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTN.
MOD RAIN MOVES IN 15-17Z...WITH PSBL PERIOD OF +SHRA BETWEEN 18
AND 00Z. ISO TSTM IS PSBL DURING THIS TIME AS WELL...THOUGH LOW
CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE/TIMING AND THUS HAVE NOT INCLUDED. RAIN
TAPERS OFF WEST TO EAST 00-06Z...WITH ONLY KSWF EXPECTED TO SEE
LIGHT SNOW MIX IN.

CIGS/VIS WILL BE UP AND DOWN ALL DAY...GENERALLY IN THE IFR OR
LOWER CATEGORY. CONDITIONS IMPROVE BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: LIFR CONDITIONS PSBL THIS AFTN WITH HEAVIER
RAIN.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: VARYING IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
DAY.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW-MOD CONFIDENCE ON LIFR CONDITIONS WITH
HEAVIER PCPN.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW-MOD CONFIDENCE ON IFR CONDITIONS WITH
HEAVIER PCPN.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MOD CONFIDENCE ON LIFR CONDITIONS
PERSISTING THROUGH THE DAY.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MOD CONFIDENCE ON LIFR CONDITIONS
PERSISTING THROUGH THE DAY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WED...VFR. N WIND G20-25KT PSBL.
.WED NIGHT...VFR.
.THURS...VFR. E WIND G 20-25KT PSBL.
.THURS NIGHT-FRI NIGHT...VFR.
.SAT...PSBL MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW CHANCE OF -SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG ON THE WATERS CONTINUES. DENSE FOG
ADVISORY REMAINS WITH EXPECTATION OF VSBY TO DROP BELOW 1 NM
WITH CONTINUED MOIST FLOW.

SMALL CRAFT SEAS ON THE OCEAN CONTINUES TODAY WITH A STRONG
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. WITH AN INCREASE IN THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WINDS
AND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THIS
MORNING. A LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL KEEP HIGHER WINDS FROM MIXING TO
THE WATER SURFACE. SO HAVE POSTED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL THE
FORECAST WATERS TODAY. WITH CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE WATERS LATE
THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY THE WESTERN
WATERS...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF GALE FORCE GUSTS.

BETTER MIXING WILL OCCUR TONIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT AS
STRONG COLD ADVECTION SETS UP BEHIND THE FRONT. GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE
LIKELY AND UPGRADED THE WATCH TO A WARNING. GALE FORCE GUSTS MAY
CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY HOURS OF WEDNESDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN ZONES...HOWEVER...DO NOT HAVE HIGH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
EXTEND THE WARNING.

IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL BE SLOWLY SUBSIDING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FALLING BELOW 5 FT ACROSS THE WATERS EAST OF
MORICHES INLET BY LATE AFTERNOON. SO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR SEAS WEDNESDAY IF THE GALE WARNING IS NOT
EXTENDED.

AFTER BRIEF LULL IN SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS OCEAN WED NIGHT...TOWARDS
DAYBREAK THU...RETURN OF SCA CONDITIONS FORECAST WITH EASTERLY FLOW
INCREASING. WINDS WILL TREND TO MOSTLY BELOW SCA BY LATE THU NIGHT
THROUGH REST OF MARINE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...SEAS WILL LIKELY
RETURN TO SCA LATE WED NIGHT ON THE OCEAN THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE
DROPPING BELOW SCA FOR WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND...HIGHER SEAS COULD COME BACK IN ON THE OCEAN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL OF 1 1/2 TO 2 INCHES...MAINLY ALL LIQUID...EXPECTED FROM
EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES.

MODERATE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS. ALSO LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR FLASHY SMALL STREAMS
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY INTO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY TO REACH
MINOR FLOOD LEVELS WITH 1 HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE AROUND 1 INCH.

NOTE...MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER.
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY CAUSE WATER LEVELS TO CONTINUE
TO RISE THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE FLOOD LEVELS
TO BE REACHED. MONITOR THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS FROM NWS TAUNTON MA.

AFTER TONIGHT NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIP EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ069-070.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ004-006-
     103>108.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345-350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-
     335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM/MET
NEAR TERM...JM/DW
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...JM/MET
HYDROLOGY...JM/MET









000
FXUS61 KBOX 151518
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1118 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING A MIX OF GUSTY WINDS...SOAKING
RAIN...AND POSSIBLY EVEN A BRIEF CHANGE TO A WINTRY MIX BEFORE
ENDING DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TOMORROW. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN WILL BRING DRY BUT UNSEASONABLE CHILLY AIR TO THE
REGION WED/WED NIGHT. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THU INTO THE FIRST
PART OF FRI WITH MODERATING AFTERNOON TEMPS INLAND...BUT REMAINING
CHILLY ALONG THE COAST. A COUPLE WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MAY
BRING A ROUND OR TWO OF RAIN SHOWERS SOMETIME FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

11 AM UPDATE...

SHARP COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS MID-STATE NY/PA WHICH CAN BE SEEN
WITHIN WSR-88D RADAR REFLECTIVITIES. THIS FRONT WILL PUSH EAST
THIS AFTERNOON AND ACROSS NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT EXITING OFFSHORE
AFTER MIDNIGHT. ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS AND FORCING WILL ADVECT GULF
MOISTURE NORTHWARD RESULTING IN A HEAVY SOAKING RAIN ACROSS THE
REGION AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. PUSHING UP
AGAINST HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC...WILL ALSO SEE
AN AMPLIFICATION OF WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. SPECIFIC DETAILS AND
THREATS ARE OUTLINED BELOW:

HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING...

THE SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH /NESDIS/ CLEARLY OUTLINES THE
SIGNIFICANCE OF THIS EVENT...ANOMALOUS DEEP MOISTURE SURGING UP
THE EAST-COAST WITH A PRECIPITABLE WATER ANOMALY 3-4 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THE SOUNDING RELEASED NEAR WASHINGTON DC
DULLES AIRPORT OBSERVED A 1.64-INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNT...
THE FOURTH HIGHEST EVER OBSERVED IN APRIL FOR THE AREA.

AS THE COLD FRONT SLIDES EAST AGAINST HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE...
EXPECT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO AMPLIFY RESULTING IN A LLJ BY
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING BETWEEN 80-90 MPH...THE CONVERGENT NOSE OF
WHICH WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BENEATH THE RRQ OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL JET...THUS DEEP-LAYER ASCENT COMBINING WITH FRONTO-
GENETICAL LIFT OF SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE. CONSIDERING CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS ALONG WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES YIELDS THE LIKE-
LIHOOD THAT WE WILL SEE WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH A FINE-LINE ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT OF EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES WITH HEIGHTENED WORDING AS A HEAVY RAIN
EVENT ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT POTENTIAL FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED. AREA
AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER ALL
OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS AROUND 3 INCHES.
MUCH OF THIS RAIN MAY FALL IN A SHORT WINDOW OF TIME OF ROUGHLY
6-HOURS AS NOTED BY THE SLIGHT RISK ISSUED BY WPC FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL.

BESIDE RIVER POINTS ALREADY WITH FLOOD WARNINGS...MINOR RIVER FLOODING
IS EXPECTED FOR THE CONNECTICUT...PAWCATUCK...AND MERRIMACK RIVER
BASINS /SOME OF WHICH ARE SWOLLEN DUE TO UPSTREAM SNOWMELT/. SOME
RIVER POINTS MAY REACH MODERATE FLOODING. EXPECTING AREA IMPACTS
TO SMALL RIVERS...TRIBUTARIES...OR STREAMS /ESPECIALLY THOSE WHICH
ARE NARROW AND FLASHIER/. THOSE WITH INTERESTS ALONG LOWER REACHES
OF CT RIVER SHOULD PAY ATTENTION TO THE LATEST FORECASTS AND
CURRENT WATER LEVELS.

ALSO ANTICIPATE URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING ESPECIALLY FOR
THE DENSE URBAN CORRIDORS /SUCH AS I-95 AND I-195/...WITH THE
EXPECTATION OF PONDING OF WATER ALONG AREA ROADWAYS WHICH WILL
IMPACT THE DRIVE-HOME COMMUTE...ESPECIALLY WITH THE HEAVY RAIN
THREAT FALLING POTENTIALLY IN A SHORT-WINDOW OF TIME.

REMOVED THE HYDROLOGY SECTION FROM THE DISCUSSION...TYING IN THE
POINTS ABOVE TO AVOID REDUNDANCY.

PLEASE SEE THE COASTAL FLOODING SECTION BELOW FOR COASTAL FLOOD
THREATS.

WINDS...

WITH THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE LLJ AND CONSIDERING PRECIP-DRAG AND
POTENTIAL BOUNDARY LAYER MECHANICAL MIXING PROCESSES /DESPITE THE
STOUT INVERSION PER 12Z CHATHAM SOUNDING/ THERE IS THE THREAT OF
STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 50 MPH /ESPECIALLY WITH
HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS/ FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTION OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. EXPANSION INTO THE CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY
IS STILL BEING CONSIDERED PER MONITORING UPSTREAM TRENDS ALONG THE
FRONT. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE THREAT OF HIGH-WINDS...BUT
WILL HANDLE THIS THREAT WITH SHORT-FUSED WARNINGS.

WINTRY MIX/FLASH FREEZE POTENTIAL...

THE BAND OF RAIN WILL MOVE E OF THE REGION ALONG WITH THE COLD
FRONT AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TOMORROW.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THIS FRONT...COLD AIR WILL BE
RAPIDLY MOVING IN FROM THE SFC TO MID LVLS DURING THIS TIME.
THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF A CHANGE OVER TO A PERIOD OF
SLEET/SNOW FROM W TO E WITH EVEN THE LOW END POTENTIAL OF SOME
ACCUMULATION IN THE W AND N OF THE ROUTE 2 CORRIDOR. THIS WILL
COMBINE WITH A RAPID TEMPERATURE DROP TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING ON
WET ROADWAYS LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SLIPPERY CONDITIONS
LEADING INTO THE WED MORNING COMMUTE. THE KEY WILL BE THE RACE
BETWEEN THE COLD AND THE DRIER AIR EXACTLY HOW MUCH SNOW
FALLS/ACCUMS...BUT THERE IS THE LOW END CHANCE OF A LIGHT COATING
TO AN INCH IN SOME SPOTS IN THE EXTREME W AND HIGHER TERRAIN AS
GUIDANCE HAS ONLY INCREASED BOTH THE DEPTH AND SPEED WITH WHICH
THE COLD AIR COMES IN BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION ACTUALLY ENDS.

TEMPERATURES...

DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER...WILL LIKELY MAKE ANOTHER RUN AT 70F
TODAY ACROSS THE E WHERE A BREAK OR TWO OF SUN IS POSSIBLE.
ESPECIALLY SINCE THEY WILL START IN THE LOW 60S. FURTHER W WHERE
CLOUDS WILL BE IN PLACE ALL DAY AND TEMPS ARE A BIT LOWER THIS
MORNING...ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY BUT UNSEASONABLY CHILLY WED/WED NIGHT
* DRY THU INTO FRI AFTERNOON - CHILLY COAST/MILDER AFTERNOON/S INLAND
* A PERIOD OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT BUT LOW CONFIDENCE
* NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY...

AN UNSEASONABLY CHILLY AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO WORK INTO THE REGION
AS LARGE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.  ANY LEFT OVER
PRECIPITATION SHOULD HAVE EXITED THE CAPE/ISLANDS BY EARLY TO MID
MORNING WED...AS THE COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE. NORTHWEST
WINDS MAY CONTINUE TO GUST BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH DURING THE
MORNING...BUT WILL DIMINISH SOME DURING THE AFTERNOON.  ANOMALOUS
850 MB TEMPS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BETWEEN -6C AND -10C ARE
EXPECTED.  HOWEVER...PLENTY OF STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE WILL OFFSET
THIS TO SOME DEGREE.  ALL IN ALL...MUCH OF THE REGION SHOULD SEE
HIGHS RECOVER WELL INTO THE 40S DURING THE AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL RESULT IN AN UNSEASONABLY COLD NIGHT.
WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS DIMINISHING...THE NORMALLY COLDER
OUTLYING LOCATIONS OF SOUTHWEST NH/NORTHWEST MA WILL PROBABLY SEE
LOWS FALL INTO THE UPPER TEENS.  THE REST OF THE REGION SHOULD SEE
LOW TEMPS FALL INTO THE 20S...TO THE LOWER 30S.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL GENERATE EAST
TO NORTHEAST WINDS AT THE SURFACE.  WHILE DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL
THU INTO FRI AFTERNOON...THE ONSHORE COMPONENT TO THE WIND SHOULD
HOLD HIGH TEMPS IN THE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN MA COAST BOTH
DAYS.  FURTHER INLAND...ENOUGH HEATING SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH
WELL UP INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60 ACROSS THE LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY.
WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG PATCHES THU
NIGHT INTO FRI ALONG THE COAST.  THIS WOULD BE A RESULT OF AN
INCREASING MOIST ONSHORE FLOW.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...

A COUPLE WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY PASS NEAR OR
SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK.  A LOT OF MODEL UNCERTAINTY ON THE
TIMING AND EXACT TRACKS OF THESE WEAK WAVES.  HOWEVER...THEY WILL
RESULT IN A CHANCE FOR A PERIOD OR TWO OF RAIN SHOWERS FRI NIGHT
AND/OR SAT. WHILE A PERIOD OF SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
EVERYWHERE...HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN A PERIOD OF WET WEATHER WILL BE
ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN.  TEMPS LIKELY REMAIN AT LEAST A BIT BELOW
NORMAL.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.  MUCH OF THIS TIME MAY TURN OUT DRY UNTIL
LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT...WHEN THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES WITH
THE RISK FOR RAIN SHOWERS.  TEMPS WILL LIKELY AVERAGE NEAR OR BELOW
NORMAL WITH THE TENDENCY FOR UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IN THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WITH CIGS/VSBYS FALLING IFR-VLIFR WITH
+RA TOWARDS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING PERIOD. POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED TSRA BUT WITH UNCERTAINTY WILL NOT MENTION IN TAF. STRONG
S-WINDS WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS FOR S/E TERMINALS. DESPITE
THIS...WILL SEE LLWS IMPACTS OVER ALL TERMINALS AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS
AMPLIFYING TOWARDS THIS EVENING WITH 60-70 KT JET 2 KFT AGL.

COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE TERMINALS AROUND MIDNIGHT. WILL SEE
WINDS BACK WEST REMAINING GUSTY UP TO 40 KTS. CONDITIONS QUICKLY
IMPROVING TO VFR. MAY SEE RAIN TRANSITION TO SNOW/SLEET BRIEFLY
WITH MINOR ACCUMS. BEST CHANCES OVER NW MA INTO S NH.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 KNOTS WED MORNING SHOULD DIMINISH
SOME BY WED AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY BY WED EVENING.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  A
PERIOD OF MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE IN SOME LOW CLOUDS/FOG
PATCHES AND A ROUND OR TWO OF RAIN SHOWERS.  TIMING AND CONFIDENCE
IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN...BUT BEST CHANCE OF THE LOWER CONDITIONS WILL
BE ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

S-SW WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY SUCH THAT GALE
FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY BY THIS AFTERNOON...CONTINUING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. GALE WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THIS THREAT. THESE
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE W-NW EARLY WED MORNING BUT CONTINUE WITH
GALE FORCE GUSTS UNTIL THEY SUBSIDE BY MID MORNING WED.

SOME HEAVY RAIN/FOG AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WELL.

SEAS INCREASE TO 10-12 FT.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 KNOTS IN
THE MORNING SHOULD LOWER TO SCA LEVELS BY AFTERNOON.  SEAS ACROSS
THE OPEN WATERS WILL REMAIN ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS GIVEN PLENTY OF
LEFT OVER SOUTHERLY SWELL.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL RESULT IN NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 20
TO 25 KNOTS MUCH OF THE TIME.  IN ADDITION...SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER-
WATERS WILL LIKELY REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  POTENTIAL FOR NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS
OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND MARGINAL SCA SEAS CONTINUES.  HOWEVER...EXACT
WIND SPEEDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS WILL DEPEND ON THE TRACK OF A COUPLE
WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE WATERS GUSTING 30 TO 40 MPH WILL
YIELD AN AVERAGE 1.5 FOOT SURGE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. COMBINED
WITH HIGH TIDE AROUND 9-10 PM /NOT ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH/...THERE
IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SPLASHOVER ALONG LOW-LYING AREAS...BUT AT
THIS PRESENT TIME WE ARE NOT CONSIDERING MINOR COASTAL FLOODING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MAZ002>021-026.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MAZ004>007-
     012>024-026.
NH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR NHZ011-012-015.
RI...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR RIZ001>007.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR RIZ001>008.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR ANZ232-233-235-237-250-254>256.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ230-231-234-236-
     251.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...FRANK/DOODY
MARINE...FRANK/DOODY
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...SIPPRELL




000
FXUS61 KALY 151432
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1032 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING PERIODS OF
RAIN AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
SOUTH TODAY. SOME OF THE RAIN WILL BE HEAVY. BEHIND THE FRONT...WILL
COME AN ABRUPT CHANGE TO SHARPLY COLDER WEATHER BY TONIGHT. RAIN
WILL TURN TO ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...AND TO
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS REMAINDER OF THE REGION. THE SUN WILL
RETURN ON WEDNESDAY BUT IT WILL MUCH COOLER THAN TODAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR AREAS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION INCLUDING RENSSELAER COUNTY.

AS OF 1030 AM EDT...A SWATHE OF MDT-HVY RAIN IS MOVING ACROSS
W-CNTRL NY INTO ERN NY. THIS AREA OF RAINFALL IS BEING TRANSPORTED
NORTH FROM A DEEP FETCH OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO PER
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP IMAGERY. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF
AN H250 JET STREAK OF 150+KTS WILL HELP ENHANCE THE UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION AND ASSIST IN ENHANCING THE LOW TO MID LEVEL FGEN
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS UPSTATE NY INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THE RAINFALL HAS REACHED THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY...AND POPS AND TEMP PROFILES WERE ADJUSTED TO FIT THE
CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

SNOW CONTINUES OVER WRN NY...AS MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE
REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE FRONT HAS MOVED
THROUGH KSYR WHERE TEMPS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE U30S. IT HAS ALSO
REACHED THE WRN DACKS...AND PARTS OF THE WRN MOHAWK VALLEY. THE
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM MOST OF THE FCST
AREA...EXCEPT FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRACT SOUTH AND EAST...WHERE A
SLIGHT CHC WAS KEPT IN WITH 250 J/KG OR LESS OF INSTABILITY. THE
LOW-LEVEL JET IS IMPRESSIVE AT H850 REACHING 50-65+ KTS. SOME
GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH MAY REACH THE SFC...BUT IT WILL BE TOUGH FOR
STRONGER GUSTS WITH THE RAIN SHIELD FILLING IN. SPECIAL WX
STATEMENTS WILL ADDRESS ANY STRONGER WIND GUSTS WITH THUNDERLESS
OR NEAR THUNDERLESS LINES IF THE WINDS ARE LESS THAN 58 MPH.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE REACHED WELL BEFORE NOON ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS...GENERALLY 55 TO 60. FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...60S
WILL BE COMMON...MID 60S FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY SOUTHEASTWARD.

SOUTHERLY  WINDS WILL TURN TO THE WEST ONCE THE FRONT GOES BY...BY
NOON ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS/WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...DURING THE
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE CATSKILLS/HUDSON VALLEY...AND EARLY EVENING
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES.

RAINFALL RATES COULD REACH UP TO HALF AN INCH PER HOUR AT TIMES
RIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND GENERATE A PLETHORA OF HYDRO
ISSUES. MORE ABOUT THESE CAN BE FOUND IN OUR HYDRO SECTION.

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP QUICKLY THROUGH THE 30S ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS DURING THE AFTERNOON...CHANGING THE RAIN TO SNOW.
SLEET HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM THE FCST. FURTHER EAST...TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP INTO THE 30S (40S SOUTHEAST) BY DARK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP TO OUR EAST AND PURE ARCTIC AIR
WILL SEND EVERYONE BELOW FREEZING...GENERALLY MID TO UPPER 20S.
FURTHER NORTH AND WEST TEENS WILL BE COMMON IN THE ADIRONDACKS. A
GUSTY WEST WIND WILL ADD TO THE CHILL BUT AGAIN SHOULD REMAIN JUST
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE COLD AIR WILL ALLOW ALL AREAS TO THE
RAIN END AS SOME SNOW SHOWERS.

ACCUMULATION OF SNOW LOOK TO BE 1-4 INCHES ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS
AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION COULD SEE A
COATING TO PERHAPS 2 INCHES WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. NO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WERE ISSUED WITH
THIS PACKAGE BUT COULD BE LATER TODAY.

ALL PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO END SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT FOLLOWED BY
PARTIAL CLEAR.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY BUT WITH TEMPERATURES MORE
TYPICAL OF MID MARCH THAN MID APRIL. DAYTIME HIGHS LOOK TO ONLY THE
UPPER 40S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD...WHILE THE
REMAINDER OF THE HUDSON VALLEY WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT ONLY AROUND
40-45 DEGREES. HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL REMAIN MAINLY IN THE 30S. A
NORTHWEST BREEZE 10 TO 20 MPH WILL ADD TO THE CHILL AT TIMES.
HOWEVER...A STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE SHOULD NEGATE THAT CHILL A
LITTLE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT UNDER A MAINLY CLEAR SKY AND DIMINISHING
WIND...IDEAL RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS WILL ENSUE. THE ONLY MITIGATING
FACTOR IS THAT OUR NIGHTTIME HOURS ARE NOW LESS THAN 11 HOURS IN
LENGTH. BY THE END OF THE NIGHT SOME AREAS COULD PICK A LITTLE BIT
OF A SOUTHERLY BREEZE BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD DECOUPLE. LOOK FOR LOWS
AGAIN IN THE TEENS NORTH AND 20S SOUTH. THESE VALUES WILL BE PRETTY
CLOSE TO RECORD LOWS IN SOME CASES...BUT NOT QUITE ECLIPSING THEM.

BY THURSDAY...THE STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
MODERATE THIS CHILLING AIRMASS. WE ARE FORECASTING TEMPERATURES TO
CLIMB JUST SHY OF NORMAL HIGHS FOR MID APRILS. THAT WOULD GENERALLY
BE IN THE 50S...UPPER 50S LOCALLY.

HOWEVER...AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER US ON THURSDAY NIGHT
FROM THE NORTHEAST  THIS FEATURE WILL PROVIDE A CONTINUATION OF A
MAINLY CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WIND ONCE MORE. THEREFORE..WE WILL HAVE
AT LEAST ONE MORE NIGHT WITH GENERALLY SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES IN
THE 20S TO NEAR 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST SHOULD START OUT WITH
GENERALLY PLEASANT CONDITIONS...WITH NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY INCREASES AS
WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND...AS THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION OF AN UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES OR OHIO VALLEY REGION
REACHING THE AREA...ALONG WITH SOME POSSIBLE INFLUX OF SOME
GULF/ATLANTIC MOISTURE...CREATING CLOUDS AND SOME RAIN SHOWERS.
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS COULD LINGER INTO SUNDAY BEFORE
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT BY MONDAY.

FOR FRI INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...A LOW LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD EXTEND INTO THE REGION FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...KEEPING
OUR REGION GENERALLY DRY INTO EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THE SYSTEM TO
OUR WEST AND INCREASING ATLANTIC MOISTURE CONVERGE ON THE REGION
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO SLIGHT TO LOW
CHANCE. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 30S.

SAT-SUN...MOST MODELS AND ENSEMBLE SUITES SUGGEST THAT A SHORTWAVE
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION BRINGS SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION...ESP ON SAT...WITH SOME RAIN SHOWERS.
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ALSO IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
REGION. THESE TWO DISTURBANCES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN UNPHASED AT
THIS TIME. IN ADDITION...THE SOUTHERN DISTURBANCE MAY LIMIT THE
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY TO THE NORTHERN SYSTEM. NEVERTHELESS...WILL
KEEP 40-50 PERCENT POPS FOR SHOWERS ON SAT...TAPERING TO AROUND 30
PERCENT SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT SUNDAY. HIGHS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE
MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN ANOTHER SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE TO
LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON MONDAY. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
MID 30S TO AROUND 40. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IFR/MVFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE TAF SITES FOR MUCH OF
THE PERIOD AS A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT AND RAIN SHOWERS AFFECT THE
REGION.

THIS MORNING...PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS WILL OPEN THE TAF
PERIOD...WITH MVFR CEILINGS AT KPOU AND KPSF. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
A LOW STRATUS DECK WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD BY MID-MORNING WITH
MAINLY MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS. DEPENDING ON THE INTENSITY OF
THE SHOWERS...THERE MAY BE OCCASIONAL IFR FLYING CONDITIONS AS WELL
AND HAVE INDICATED THIS WITH TEMPO GROUPS BEGINNING AT 15Z.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AROUND 12-16 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-25
KNOTS.

THIS AFTERNOON...AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST RAIN
SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN MAINLY IFR FLYING CONDITIONS. THERE MAY BE A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS WELL BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS
POINT IN TIME TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. WINDS WILL VEER THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON HOURS FROM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AT KALB.

THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE EVENING HOURS...USHERING IN DRAMATICALLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT...HOWEVER SHOWERS WILL LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT. HAVE
INTRODUCED A PERIOD OF LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION IN THE TAFS AFTER
00Z...WITH A MIXTURE OF SNOW...RAIN AND SLEET. AS COLDER
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WORK INTO THE REGION THE PRECIPITATION WILL
TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS AFTER 03Z AND QUICKLY END BY 09Z WITH
LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.

WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AROUND 10
KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS TODAY...

MOST OF OUR REGION IS NOW SNOW FREE. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WAS ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE SNOW COVER REMAINED.

A SOAKING RAIN IS FORECAST FOR ALL REGIONS WITH OVER A QUARTER OF AN
INCH TODAY. A "WET FLAG" WAS ASSIGNED TO ALL FWM SITES ON MONDAY.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL DRIVE MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION BY
TONIGHT. RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACK BY DAY/ END
WITH A MINOR ACCUMULATION EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION COULD SEE RAIN ENDING AS SNOW SHOWERS THIS
EVENING...WITH COATING OF SNOW POSSIBLE.

SUNSHINE RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH A BRISK WEST WIND 5 TO 15
MPH...BUT GUSTING UP TO 25-30 MPH.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR THE ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY/LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA
REGION CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TACONICS...SOUTHERN VERMONT AND THE
NORTHERN BERKSHIRES.

WE ALREADY HAVE SOME HYDRO ISSUES DUE TO RAPID SNOWMELT...THANKS TO
NOT ONLY WARM AFTERNOON HIGHS...BUT TEMPERATURES REMAINING WAY ABOVE
FREEZING AT NIGHT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL EVOLVE INTO A WIDESPREAD RAIN TODAY ACROSS
THE REGION. AS A STRONG COLD FRONT PLOWS INTO AN INCREASINGLY MOIST
AIR MASS...WITH PWATS APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES...BY AFTERNOON A LINE
OF VERY HEAVY TO TORRENTIAL SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE. RAINFALL RATES
COULD APPROACH HALF AN INCH PER HOUR AT TIMES. OVERALL WE ARE
LOOKING FOR 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN. IF THUNDERSTORMS WERE TO
HAPPEN...AMOUNTS COULD LOCALLY EXCEED 2 INCHES...PERHAPS CLOSER TO 3
INCHES.

THIS TYPE OF RAIN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MARKED RISES ON MOST RIVERS
AND STREAMS. SEVERAL POINTS ON OUR RIVERS ARE PROJECTED TO REACH
MINOR OR EVEN MODERATE FLOOD. ALSO...THE HEAVY RAIN RATE WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO SOME PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND AREAS OF POOR
DRAINAGE. THERE IS EVEN A SLIGHT CHANCE A LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
RIGHT NOW THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING WAS NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS THE CHANCES ARE UNDER 25 PERCENT BUT CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE. PLEASE REFER BACK TO THE PORTION OF THE AFD LATER ON IF
YOU ARE CONCERNED ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY FLOODING.

AS COLDER AIR POURS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...RAIN WILL TURN TO
SNOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...PRODUCING MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. FURTHER SOUTH AND
EAST...THE PRECIPITATION COULD EVEN END AS SNOW SHOWERS WITH A
COATING IN PLACES.

THIS COLDER AIR WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING EVERYWHERE
OVERNIGHT...THUS SLOWING DOWN THE RUNOFF. HOWEVER...LARGE STEM
RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND NOT CREST UNTIL WEDNESDAY.

DRY WEATHER IS IN STORE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR NYZ032-033-038>043-
     050-053-054-082>084.
MA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MAZ001.
VT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/WASULA
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/WASULA
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV








000
FXUS61 KOKX 151204
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
804 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST OF THE REGION TOWARDS THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...WEAKENING DURING THE PROCESS. LOW PRESSURE ALONG A STALLED
FRONT TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION APPROACHES FRIDAY AND PASSES EAST
OF THE REGION SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AND OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WERE RUNNING WELL WITH OBSERVATIONS.
POPS FOR SHOWERS WERE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY. STILL HAVE HIGH
CONFIDENCE ON ALL LOCATIONS RECEIVING SHOWERS THIS
MORNING...ADJUSTED WORDING TO OCCASIONAL WITH BREAKS EVIDENT ON
DOPPLER RADAR REFLECTIVITY. FOG MORE PATCHY ACROSS WESTERN AREAS
AND GREATER OVER EASTERN AREAS BUT EXPECT THIS COVERAGE TO
INCREASE OVER THE WESTERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.

A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING...AND WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS ATMOSPHERE BECOMES
MORE UNSTABLE DURING THE DAY LIGHT HOURS AND FORCING INCREASES. A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OF 60 TO 70 KT WILL ALSO AID IN THE LIFT
ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. BEST
INSTABILITY WILL BE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY AND INTO THE
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY WITH LOWER INSTABILITY INTO NEW YORK CITY AND
WESTERN LONG ISLAND WITH A STRONG MARINE INFLUENCE. EXPECTING
ISOLATED THUNDER WITH GUSTY WIND AS LOW LEVELS WINDS ARE
POTENTIALLY BROUGHT TO THE SURFACE...POTENTLY FOR WIND GUSTS TO
AROUND 50 MPH. ALSO...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE AROUND 1
1/2 INCH WHICH IS AROUND 2 1/2 TIMES NORMAL VALUE...SO WILL
MENTION POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER RAINFALL. LOCALIZED URBAN AND LOW
LYING FLOODING POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY INTO NYC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION THIS EVENING INTO LATE TONIGHT WITH
THE PRECIPITATION ENDING. FORCING DIMINISHES QUICKLY WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL SOME LINGERING SHOWERS POST FRONTAL
POSSIBLE. MUCH COLDER AIR LAGS BEHIND THE FRONT THAT MUCH OF THE
PRECIPITATION IS ENDED BY THAT TIME. THERE IS JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SNOW SHOWERS JUST TO THE VICINITY OF THE NEW YORK CITY METRO AREA
LATE TONIGHT. AND NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA TONIGHT WITH LOWS 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FREEZING OR NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. AND WITH THE GROWING SEASON
BEGINNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND
NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY HAVE ISSUED A FREEZING WARNING.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR WEDNESDAY WITH A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND IN
THE MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS
WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S...WHILE NORMAL HIGHS ARE IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAIN UPPER LEVEL JET SOUTH OF THE REGION MID TO LATE THIS WEEK WITH
AS BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS. A SHORTWAVE IN
THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL WITH ACCOMPANYING JET STREAK WILL MOVE IN
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AND EXIT EAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE REGION WILL THEN BE ON A NORTHEAST SIDE OF A LARGE
WEAK...RATHER FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING
SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE TRANSLATING NORTHEAST INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL ALLOW FOR A COOLER MARITIME TYPE OF AIRMASS
TO BE WITHIN THE REGION AS WE GET INTO A NORTHEAST FLOW REGIME. THIS
CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY BUT WITH WEAKENING WINDS...THE AIRMASS WILL
GRADUALLY MODERATE WITH A RESULTING SLOW INCREASE IN DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES EACH DAY.

IN TERMS OF WEATHER...DRY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THEREAFTER...A
TREND TOWARDS A MORE WET PATTERN EVIDENT STARTING FRIDAY WITH LOW
PRESSURE IN SOUTHEAST DEVELOPING AND APPROACHING ALONG A STALLED
FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS A TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING. CMC ONLY
MODEL SHOWING VERY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS
FRIDAY WITH GREATER MODEL AGREEMENT ON RAINFALL FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY.

THIS COMES WITH THE APPROACH OF THE TROUGH AND GREATER MOISTURE AND
WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW. RESIDUAL LIGHT NORTHEAST
FLOW AT THE SURFACE FURTHER INCREASES THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE.

THE TROUGH AXIS PUSHES EAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING
FOR A DRIER TREND TO WEATHER AS SHOWERS TAPER OFF AS MORE OF A
NORTHERLY FLOW WITH LESS EASTERLY COMPONENT SETTLES IN.

EARLY NEXT WEEK RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS AS HIGH PRES MOVES ACROSS AREA
AND EVENTUALLY OFFSHORE. AIRMASS WILL FURTHER MODERATE WITH WARMER
AND MORE MOIST AIRMASS MOVING IN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VARYING AND DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT.

HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS WITH STRONG SLY FLOW DURING THE DAY. WINDS
INCREASING THIS MORNING...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-30 KTS WITH OCNL
GUSTS UP TO 35 KTS FOR THE DAY. TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE
SOMEWHERE 20-00Z...WITH WINDS SHIFTING S -SW-NW DURING THIS TIME.
WINDS WILL TAPER OFF SLIGHTLY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...THEN
INCREASE AGAIN AS THE WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW. GUSTS UP TO AROUND 35
KTS LIKELY TONIGHT WITH PSBL GUSTS TO 40 KTS.

LLWS ISSUES PERSISTING THROUGH LATE AFTN...WITH GENERALLY 50-60
KTS BETWEEN 1-2KFT.

LIGHT RAIN HAS MOVED INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING...WITH INCREASING
INTENSITY AND COVERAGE EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTN.
MOD RAIN MOVES IN 14-16Z...WITH PSBL PERIOD OF +SHRA BETWEEN 18
AND 00Z. ISO TSTM IS PSBL DURING THIS TIME AS WELL...THOUGH LOW
CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE/TIMING AND THUS HAVE NOT INCLUDED. RAIN
TAPERS OFF WEST TO EAST 00-06Z...WITH ONLY KSWF EXPECTED TO SEE
LIGHT SNOW MIX IN.

CIGS/VIS WILL BE UP AND DOWN ALL DAY...GENERALLY IN THE IFR OR
LOWER CATEGORY. CONDITIONS IMPROVE BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: LIFR CONDITIONS PSBL THIS AFTN WITH HEAVIER
RAIN.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: VARYING IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
DAY.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW-MOD CONFIDENCE ON LIFR CONDITIONS WITH
HEAVIER PCPN.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW-MOD CONFIDENCE ON IFR CONDITIONS WITH
HEAVIER PCPN.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MOD CONFIDENCE ON LIFR CONDITIONS
PERSISTING THROUGH THE DAY.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MOD CONFIDENCE ON LIFR CONDITIONS
PERSISTING THROUGH THE DAY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WED...VFR. N WIND G20-25KT PSBL.
.WED NIGHT...VFR.
.THURS...VFR. E WIND G 20-25KT PSBL.
.THURS NIGHT-FRI NIGHT...VFR.
.SAT...PSBL MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW CHANCE OF -SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG ON THE WATERS CONTINUES. DENSE FOG
ADVISORY REMAINS WITH EXPECTATION OF VSBY TO DROP BELOW 1 NM
WITH CONTINUED MOIST FLOW.

SMALL CRAFT SEAS ON THE OCEAN CONTINUES TODAY WITH A STRONG
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. WITH AN INCREASE IN THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WINDS
AND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THIS
MORNING. A LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL KEEP HIGHER WINDS FROM MIXING TO
THE WATER SURFACE. SO HAVE POSTED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL THE
FORECAST WATERS TODAY. WITH CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE WATERS LATE
THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY THE WESTERN
WATERS...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF GALE FORCE GUSTS.

BETTER MIXING WILL OCCUR TONIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT AS
STRONG COLD ADVECTION SETS UP BEHIND THE FRONT. GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE
LIKELY AND UPGRADED THE WATCH TO A WARNING. GALE FORCE GUSTS MAY
CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY HOURS OF WEDNESDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN ZONES...HOWEVER...DO NOT HAVE HIGH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
EXTEND THE WARNING.

IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL BE SLOWLY SUBSIDING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FALLING BELOW 5 FT ACROSS THE WATERS EAST OF
MORICHES INLET BY LATE AFTERNOON. SO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR SEAS WEDNESDAY IF THE GALE WARNING IS NOT
EXTENDED.

AFTER BRIEF LULL IN SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS OCEAN WED NIGHT...TOWARDS
DAYBREAK THU...RETURN OF SCA CONDITIONS FORECAST WITH EASTERLY FLOW
INCREASING. WINDS WILL TREND TO MOSTLY BELOW SCA BY LATE THU NIGHT
THROUGH REST OF MARINE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...SEAS WILL LIKELY
RETURN TO SCA LATE WED NIGHT ON THE OCEAN THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE
DROPPING BELOW SCA FOR WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND...HIGHER SEAS COULD COME BACK IN ON THE OCEAN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL OF 1 1/2 TO 2 INCHES...MAINLY ALL LIQUID...EXPECTED FROM
EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES.

MODERATE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS. ALSO LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR FLASHY SMALL STREAMS
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY INTO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY TO REACH
MINOR FLOOD LEVELS WITH 1 HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE AROUND 1 INCH.

NOTE...MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER.
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY CAUSE WATER LEVELS TO CONTINUE
TO RISE THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE FLOOD LEVELS
TO BE REACHED. MONITOR THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS FROM NWS TAUNTON MA.

AFTER TONIGHT NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIP EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ069-070.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ004-006-
     103>108.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345-350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-
     335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JM/MET
NEAR TERM...JM/MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...SEARS
MARINE...JM/MET
HYDROLOGY...JM/MET









000
FXUS61 KALY 151130
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
730 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING POWERFUL COLD FRONT WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. SOME OF THE RAIN MIGHT BE HEAVY.
BEHIND THE FRONT...WILL COME AN ABRUPT CHANGE TO SHARPLY COLDER
WEATHER BY TONIGHT. RAIN WILL TURN TO ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS...AND TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS REMAINDER OF THE
REGION. THE SUN WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY BUT IT WILL MUCH COOLER
THAN TODAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR AREAS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION INCLUDING RENSSELAER COUNTY.

FOR THIS UPDATE...ONLY VERY MINOR RE-TOOLING OF THE HOURLY GRIDS
LEAVING THE FORECAST BASICALLY AS IT WAS.

AS OF 645 AM EDT...SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUED TO SLOWLY INCREASE
ACROSS THE REGION. A MUCH LARGER AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WAS
MOVING NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AS WELL AS A LARGE AREA OF
RAIN ASSOCIATED THE WITH COLD FRONT...NOW MOVING INTO CENTRAL NEW
YORK STATE.

AS OUR REGION COMES UNDERNEATH THE ENTRANCE OF SLIGHTLY
ANTICYLONICALLY CURVED UPPER LEFT JET APPROACHING 130KTS...UPWARD
MOTION WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE.

TEMPERATURES OVER OUR REGION HAVE REMAINED EXCEPTIONALLY MILD
LOWER TO MID 60S FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EAST...55 TO AROUND 60
FURTHER NORTH AND WEST INCLUDING THE ADIRONDACKS.

A SOUTH BREEZE CONTINUED 5 TO 15 MPH ACROSS THE REGION...GUSTING TO
25 MPH AT TIMES. THESE VALUES WERE DOWN A LITTLE FROM EARLIER IN THE
EVENING.

THE SHOWERS WILL EVOLVE INTO A MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN THROUGH
MIDDAY... WHICH COULD BECOME HEAVY WELL WEST OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY...AND DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM THE HUDSON EASTWARD.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE REACHED WELL BEFORE NOON ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS...GENERALLY 55 TO 60. FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...60S WILL
BE COMMON...MID TO UPPER 60S FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY SOUTHEASTWARD.
IF WE WERE TO GET SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE (UNLIKELY) SOME SPOTS
COULD BRIEFLY REACH INTO THE 70S...BUT RIGHT NOW WE ARE NOT
FORECASTING THEM TO BE QUITE THAT WARM AS RAIN WILL SERVE TO COOL
THE BOUNDARY DOWN A BIT ON ITS OWN. IF WE WERE TO GET ANY BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE THAT WOULD INCREASE THUNDERSTORM RISKS...AND WIND GUSTS AS
WELL.

THE SOUTHERLY WIND WILL INCREASE ONCE MORE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
RIGHT NOW...BASED ON THE WIND PROFILES AND THE FACT THAT MOISTURE
SHOULD PROHIBIT A DEEP OF MIXING AS YESTERDAY (DESPITE STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT)...WE HAVE NOT ISSUED ANY WIND ADVISORIES. HOWEVER...WE
HAVE WIND GUSTS REACHING UP TO 40 MPH IN THE GRIDS. ALSO...SOME
LIMITED INSTABILITY MIGHT ALLOW FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS COULD TAP STRONGER WINDS ALOFT (EVEN IF THEY ARE NOT
TALL). THESE COULD BRING ADDITIONAL WIND GUSTS DOWN SO WE KEPT
(THUNDERSTORMS MIGHT CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS IN THE FORECAST) EVEN
THOUGH THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS LOW...AND SEVERE ONES
(CONTAINING WIND GUSTS 60 MPH OR HIGHER) VERY LOW.   SOUTH WIND WILL
TURN TO THE WEST ONCE THE FRONT GOES BY...BY NOON ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS/WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...DURING THE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
CATSKILLS/HUDSON VALLEY...AND EARLY EVENING SOUTHEASTERN ZONES.

RAINFALL RATES COULD REACH UP TO HALF AN INCH PER HOUR AT TIMES
RIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND GENERATE A PLETHORA OF HYDRO
ISSUES. MORE ABOUT THESE CAN BE FOUND IN OUR HYDRO SECTION.

TEMPERATURES BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT HAVE PLUNGED INTO THE 30S IN
OHIO AND EVEN DUNKIRK IN NY. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP QUICKLY THROUGH
THE 30S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS DURING THE AFTERNOON...CHANGING THE
RAIN INITIALLY TO SLEET AND THEN TO SNOW. FURTHER
EAST...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 30S (40S SOUTHEAST) BY DARK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP TO OUR EAST AND PURE ARCTIC AIR
WILL SEND EVERYONE BELOW FREEZING...GENERALLY MID TO UPPER 20S.
FURTHER NORTH AND WEST TEENS WILL BE COMMON IN THE ADIRONDACKS. A
GUSTY WEST WIND WILL ADD TO THE CHILL BUT AGAIN SHOULD REMAIN JUST
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE COLD AIR WILL ALLOW ALL AREAS TO THE
RAIN END AS SOME SNOW SHOWERS.

ACCUMULATION OF SNOW LOOK TO BE 1-4 INCHES ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS
AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION COULD SEE A
COATING TO PERHAPS 2 INCHES WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. NO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WERE ISSUED WITH
THIS PACKAGE BUT COULD BE LATER TODAY.

ALL PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO END SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT FOLLOWED BY
PARTIAL CLEAR.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY BUT WITH TEMPERATURES MORE
TYPICAL OF MID MARCH THAN MID APRIL. DAYTIME HIGHS LOOK TO ONLY THE
UPPER 40S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD...WHILE THE
REMAINDER OF THE HUDSON VALLEY WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT ONLY AROUND
40-45 DEGREES. HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL REMAIN MAINLY IN THE 30S. A
NORTHWEST BREEZE 10 TO 20 MPH WILL ADD TO THE CHILL AT TIMES.
HOWEVER...A STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE SHOULD NEGATE THAT CHILL A
LITTLE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT UNDER A MAINLY CLEAR SKY AND DIMINISHING
WIND...IDEAL RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS WILL ENSUE. THE ONLY MITIGATING
FACTOR IS THAT OUR NIGHTTIME HOURS ARE NOW LESS THAN 11 HOURS IN
LENGTH. BY THE END OF THE NIGHT SOME AREAS COULD PICK A LITTLE BIT
OF A SOUTHERLY BREEZE BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD DECOUPLE. LOOK FOR LOWS
AGAIN IN THE TEENS NORTH AND 20S SOUTH. THESE VALUES WILL BE PRETTY
CLOSE TO RECORD LOWS IN SOME CASES...BUT NOT QUITE ECLIPSING THEM.

BY THURSDAY...THE STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
MODERATE THIS CHILLING AIRMASS. WE ARE FORECASTING TEMPERATURES TO
CLIMB JUST SHY OF NORMAL HIGHS FOR MID APRILS. THAT WOULD GENERALLY
BE IN THE 50S...UPPER 50S LOCALLY.

HOWEVER...AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER US ON THURSDAY NIGHT
FROM THE NORTHEAST  THIS FEATURE WILL PROVIDE A CONTINUATION OF A
MAINLY CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WIND ONCE MORE. THEREFORE..WE WILL HAVE
AT LEAST ONE MORE NIGHT WITH GENERALLY SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES IN
THE 20S TO NEAR 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST SHOULD START OUT WITH
GENERALLY PLEASANT CONDITIONS...WITH NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY INCREASES AS
WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND...AS THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION OF AN UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES OR OHIO VALLEY REGION
REACHING THE AREA...ALONG WITH SOME POSSIBLE INFLUX OF SOME
GULF/ATLANTIC MOISTURE...CREATING CLOUDS AND SOME RAIN SHOWERS.
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS COULD LINGER INTO SUNDAY BEFORE
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT BY MONDAY.

FOR FRI INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...A LOW LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD EXTEND INTO THE REGION FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...KEEPING
OUR REGION GENERALLY DRY INTO EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THE SYSTEM TO
OUR WEST AND INCREASING ATLANTIC MOISTURE CONVERGE ON THE REGION
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO SLIGHT TO LOW
CHANCE. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 30S.

SAT-SUN...MOST MODELS AND ENSEMBLE SUITES SUGGEST THAT A SHORTWAVE
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION BRINGS SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION...ESP ON SAT...WITH SOME RAIN SHOWERS.
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ALSO IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
REGION. THESE TWO DISTURBANCES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN UNPHASED AT
THIS TIME. IN ADDITION...THE SOUTHERN DISTURBANCE MAY LIMIT THE
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY TO THE NORTHERN SYSTEM. NEVERTHELESS...WILL
KEEP 40-50 PERCENT POPS FOR SHOWERS ON SAT...TAPERING TO AROUND 30
PERCENT SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT SUNDAY. HIGHS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE
MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN ANOTHER SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE TO
LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON MONDAY. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
MID 30S TO AROUND 40. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IFR/MVFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE TAF SITES FOR MUCH OF
THE PERIOD AS A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT AND RAIN SHOWERS AFFECT THE
REGION.

THIS MORNING...PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS WILL OPEN THE TAF
PERIOD...WITH MVFR CEILINGS AT KPOU AND KPSF. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
A LOW STRATUS DECK WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD BY MID-MORNING WITH
MAINLY MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS. DEPENDING ON THE INTENSITY OF
THE SHOWERS...THERE MAY BE OCCASIONAL IFR FLYING CONDITIONS AS WELL
AND HAVE INDICATED THIS WITH TEMPO GROUPS BEGINNING AT 15Z.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AROUND 12-16 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-25
KNOTS.

THIS AFTERNOON...AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST RAIN
SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN MAINLY IFR FLYING CONDITIONS. THERE MAY BE A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS WELL BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS
POINT IN TIME TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. WINDS WILL VEER THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON HOURS FROM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AT KALB.

THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE EVENING HOURS...USHERING IN DRAMATICALLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT...HOWEVER SHOWERS WILL LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT. HAVE
INTRODUCED A PERIOD OF LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION IN THE TAFS AFTER
00Z...WITH A MIXTURE OF SNOW...RAIN AND SLEET. AS COLDER
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WORK INTO THE REGION THE PRECIPITATION WILL
TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS AFTER 03Z AND QUICKLY END BY 09Z WITH
LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.

WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AROUND 10
KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS TODAY...

MOST OF OUR REGION IS NOW SNOW FREE. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WAS ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE SNOW COVER REMAINED.

A SOAKING RAIN IS FORECAST FOR ALL REGIONS WITH OVER A QUARTER OF AN
INCH TODAY. A "WET FLAG" WAS ASSIGNED TO ALL FWM SITES ON MONDAY.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL DRIVE MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION BY
TONIGHT. RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACK BY DAY/ END
WITH A MINOR ACCUMULATION EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION COULD SEE RAIN ENDING AS SNOW SHOWERS THIS
EVENING...WITH COATING OF SNOW POSSIBLE.

SUNSHINE RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH A BRISK WEST WIND 5 TO 15
MPH...BUT GUSTING UP TO 25-30 MPH.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR THE ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY/LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA
REGION CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TACONICS...SOUTHERN VERMONT AND THE
NORTHERN BERKSHIRES.

WE ALREADY HAVE SOME HYDRO ISSUES DUE TO RAPID SNOWMELT...THANKS TO
NOT ONLY WARM AFTERNOON HIGHS...BUT TEMPERATURES REMAINING WAY ABOVE
FREEZING AT NIGHT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL EVOLVE INTO A WIDESPREAD RAIN TODAY ACROSS
THE REGION. AS A STRONG COLD FRONT PLOWS INTO AN INCREASINGLY MOIST
AIR MASS...WITH PWATS APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES...BY AFTERNOON A LINE
OF VERY HEAVY TO TORRENTIAL SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE. RAINFALL RATES
COULD APPROACH HALF AN INCH PER HOUR AT TIMES. OVERALL WE ARE
LOOKING FOR 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN. IF THUNDERSTORMS WERE TO
HAPPEN...AMOUNTS COULD LOCALLY EXCEED 2 INCHES...PERHAPS CLOSER TO 3
INCHES.

THIS TYPE OF RAIN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MARKED RISES ON MOST RIVERS
AND STREAMS. SEVERAL POINTS ON OUR RIVERS ARE PROJECTED TO REACH
MINOR OR EVEN MODERATE FLOOD. ALSO...THE HEAVY RAIN RATE WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO SOME PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND AREAS OF POOR
DRAINAGE. THERE IS EVEN A SLIGHT CHANCE A LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
RIGHT NOW THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING WAS NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS THE CHANCES ARE UNDER 25 PERCENT BUT CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE. PLEASE REFER BACK TO THE PORTION OF THE AFD LATER ON IF
YOU ARE CONCERNED ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY FLOODING.

AS COLDER AIR POURS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...RAIN WILL TURN TO
SNOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...PRODUCING MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. FURTHER SOUTH AND
EAST...THE PRECIPITATION COULD EVEN END AS SNOW SHOWERS WITH A
COATING IN PLACES.

THIS COLDER AIR WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING EVERYWHERE
OVERNIGHT...THUS SLOWING DOWN THE RUNOFF. HOWEVER...LARGE STEM
RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND NOT CREST UNTIL WEDNESDAY.

DRY WEATHER IS IN STORE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR NYZ032-033-038>043-
     050-053-054-082>084.
MA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MAZ001.
VT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV








000
FXUS61 KBOX 151108
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
705 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING A MIX OF GUSTY WINDS...SOAKING
RAIN...AND POSSIBLY EVEN A BRIEF CHANGE TO A WINTRY MIX BEFORE
ENDING DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TOMORROW. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN WILL BRING DRY BUT UNSEASONABLE CHILLY AIR TO THE
REGION WED/WED NIGHT. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THU INTO THE FIRST
PART OF FRI WITH MODERATING AFTERNOON TEMPS INLAND...BUT REMAINING
CHILLY ALONG THE COAST. A COUPLE WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MAY
BRING A ROUND OR TWO OF RAIN SHOWERS SOMETIME FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON/...

705 AM UPDATE...

BANDS OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WERE AFFECTING THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING.  THIS A RESULT OF DEEP MOISTURE IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
PATTERN.  EXPECT SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE REGION THIS MORNING BUT THERE WILL ALSO BE PERIODS OF
DRY WEATHER. THE STEADY/HEAVY RAINFALL WILL AWAIT THE BETTER
DYNAMICS/FORCING THAT WILL MOVE IN FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON.

EARLY DAY MIXING SHOULD BE RELATIVELY DEEP ESPECIALLY FROM
WORCESTER COUNTY AND SOUTHEAST. MAINLY AS TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY START IN THE LOW 60S AND CLOUD DEPTH WILL BE LOWER THAN
AREAS TO THE W...CLOSER TO THE APPROACHING FRONT. SOUTHERLY LLJ
WILL BE MOVING IN AHEAD OF THIS WAVE/FRONT AND WILL PEAK THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...BUT WILL BE INCREASING FROM A START OF 45 KT AT
H92 AT 12Z...TO 70-80 KT BY THE AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE
LIKELY UNDERDONE IN TERMS OF MIXING AS THEY ARE INITIALIZING TOO
COLD AT THE SFC THIS MORNING. THEREFORE...WILL BE ISSUING A WIND
ADVISORY BEGINNING AT NOON...AS SOME OF THIS HIGH MOMENTUM IS
LIKELY TO BE TAPPED. WILL FOCUSED WHERE HIGHER MIXING IS LIKELY
/EAST OF WORCESTER COUNTY/ BUT THIS MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED
FURTHER W SINCE THE LLJ WILL ARRIVE WITH THE FRONT THERE FIRST.
EXPECTED WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH ARE LIKELY WITHIN THE WIND
ADVISORY...BUT SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

TEMPS...DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER...WILL LIKELY MAKE ANOTHER RUN AT
70F TODAY ACROSS THE E WHERE A BREAK OR TWO OF SUN IS POSSIBLE.
ESPECIALLY SINCE THEY WILL START IN THE LOW 60S. FURTHER W WHERE
CLOUDS WILL BE IN PLACE ALL DAY AND TEMPS ARE A BIT LOWER THIS
MORNING...ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /2 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
* STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS A MIX OF POTENTIAL IMPACTS *

A STRONG COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG MERGING OF NRN AND SRN
STREAM ENERGY WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE TODAY AND INTO THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS. GIVEN ITS ASSOCIATION WITH DECENT UPPER LVL
DYNAMICS...GOOD LOW-MID LVL F-GEN...AND CONNECTION TO GULF OF
MEXICO MOISTURE IT WILL LEAD TO A MIX OF POTENTIAL IMPACTS ACROSS
THE REGION BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AND
ALLOWING COLDER/DRIER AIR TO MOVE IN. WILL CONTINUE TO ADD THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISO-THUNDER WITH THE COLD FROPA ESPECIALLY AS MODEST
MID LVL LAPSE RATES AND GOOD SFC DWPTS SUGGEST AT LEAST THE LOW
END THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED IN THE RAINFALL BAND.

HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING...
GIVEN THE GULF MOISTURE AND PWAT VALUES EXCEEDING 1.5 INCHES
/APPROACHING 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL/ AND A STRONG
SOUTHERLY LLJ BETWEEN 70-80 KT...THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN IS
HIGH. THE STRONG JET WILL ALSO BE SUPPORTED BY MODEST MID LVL
LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.0C/KM SUGGESTING SOME CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS ARE
LIKELY AS THE FRONT MOVES FROM W-E THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. CORFIDI VECTORS ARE QUITE LOW WHICH SUGGESTS THAT
BANDED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS MAY LINGER IN SOME AREAS AS WELL. GIVEN
ALL THIS...EXPECTED WIDESPREAD RAIN TOTALS BETWEEN 1.0 AND 1.5
INCHES WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF AMOUNTS APPROACHING 2.0 INCHES IN
ANY CONVECTION. CURRENT FLOOD WATCH /GIVEN THE CONNECTICUT RIVER
IS ALREADY IN MINOR FLOOD IN AREAS OF CT/ LOOKS GOOD...BUT WILL BE
EXPANDING E WITH THIS UPDATE TO INCLUDE THE I-95 AND I-195
CORRIDORS AS LATEST MESOSCALE GUIDANCE FOCUS A BAND WITH THE LLJ
ACROSS THESE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON WHICH MAY ENHANCE THE THREAT FOR
URBAN/STREAM FLOODING. FOR MORE ON THE HYDRO IMPACTS...SEE THE
DISCUSSION BELOW.

WINDS...
AS MENTIONED IN THE NEAR TERM SECTION ABOVE...WILL BE CONTINUING
WITH A WIND ADVISORY ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE REGION THROUGH
MIDNIGHT FOR THE LONG-FUSED THREAT OF STRONG WINDS DUE TO DIURNAL
MIXING. MODELS ARE LIKELY OVERDOING THE INVERSION AS THEY ARE
INITIALIZING TOO COLD THIS MORNING. ALSO...SHOULD ANY CONVECTION
OR FINE LINES DEVELOP AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATER TODAY AND
THIS EVENING...THERE IS THE BETTER CHANCE DUE TO A COMBINATION OF
PRECIP-DRAG AND BETTER LOCALIZED MIXING WHICH MAY ALLOW MORE OF
THE 70-80 KT H92 JET TO BE REALIZED. THIS MAY REQUIRE EXPANSION OF
THE WIND ADVISORY FURTHER W AS THE LLJ ARRIVES THERE THIS
AFTERNOON...THE UPGRADE TO A HIGH WIND WARNING...OR MORE SHORT-
FUSED IF THE CONVECTION IS REALIZED. THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED
TODAY.

WINTRY MIX/FLASH FREEZE POTENTIAL...
THE BAND OF RAIN WILL MOVE E OF THE REGION ALONG WITH THE COLD
FRONT AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TOMORROW.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THIS FRONT...COLD AIR WILL BE
RAPIDLY MOVING IN FROM THE SFC TO MID LVLS DURING THIS TIME.
THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF A CHANGE OVER TO A PERIOD OF
SLEET/SNOW FROM W TO E WITH EVEN THE LOW END POTENTIAL OF SOME
ACCUMULATION IN THE W AND N OF THE ROUTE 2 CORRIDOR. THIS WILL
COMBINE WITH A RAPID TEMPERATURE DROP TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING ON
WET ROADWAYS LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SLIPPERY CONDITIONS
LEADING INTO THE WED MORNING COMMUTE. THE KEY WILL BE THE RACE
BETWEEN THE COLD AND THE DRIER AIR EXACTLY HOW MUCH SNOW
FALLS/ACCUMS...BUT THERE IS THE LOW END CHANCE OF A LIGHT COATING
TO AN INCH IN SOME SPOTS IN THE EXTREME W AND HIGHER TERRAIN AS
GUIDANCE HAS ONLY INCREASED BOTH THE DEPTH AND SPEED WITH WHICH
THE COLD AIR COMES IN BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION ACTUALLY ENDS.

COASTAL FLOODING...
SEE BELOW FOR MORE INFORMATION...BUT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY LEAD TO SOME POCKETS OF
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AT SOUTH COASTAL LOCATIONS WITH THE HIGH
TIDE LATE THIS EVENING /AROUND 9-10 PM/.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY BUT UNSEASONABLY CHILLY WED/WED NIGHT
* DRY THU INTO FRI AFTERNOON - CHILLY COAST/MILDER AFTERNOON/S INLAND
* A PERIOD OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT BUT LOW CONFIDENCE
* NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY...

AN UNSEASONABLY CHILLY AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO WORK INTO THE REGION
AS LARGE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.  ANY LEFT OVER
PRECIPITATION SHOULD HAVE EXITED THE CAPE/ISLANDS BY EARLY TO MID
MORNING WED...AS THE COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE. NORTHWEST
WINDS MAY CONTINUE TO GUST BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH DURING THE
MORNING...BUT WILL DIMINISH SOME DURING THE AFTERNOON.  ANOMALOUS
850 MB TEMPS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BETWEEN -6C AND -10C ARE
EXPECTED.  HOWEVER...PLENTY OF STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE WILL OFFSET
THIS TO SOME DEGREE.  ALL IN ALL...MUCH OF THE REGION SHOULD SEE
HIGHS RECOVER WELL INTO THE 40S DURING THE AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL RESULT IN AN UNSEASONABLY COLD NIGHT.
WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS DIMINISHING...THE NORMALLY COLDER
OUTLYING LOCATIONS OF SOUTHWEST NH/NORTHWEST MA WILL PROBABLY SEE
LOWS FALL INTO THE UPPER TEENS.  THE REST OF THE REGION SHOULD SEE
LOW TEMPS FALL INTO THE 20S...TO THE LOWER 30S.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL GENERATE EAST
TO NORTHEAST WINDS AT THE SURFACE.  WHILE DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL
THU INTO FRI AFTERNOON...THE ONSHORE COMPONENT TO THE WIND SHOULD
HOLD HIGH TEMPS IN THE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN MA COAST BOTH
DAYS.  FURTHER INLAND...ENOUGH HEATING SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH
WELL UP INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60 ACROSS THE LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY.
WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG PATCHES THU
NIGHT INTO FRI ALONG THE COAST.  THIS WOULD BE A RESULT OF AN
INCREASING MOIST ONSHORE FLOW.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...

A COUPLE WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY PASS NEAR OR
SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK.  A LOT OF MODEL UNCERTAINTY ON THE
TIMING AND EXACT TRACKS OF THESE WEAK WAVES.  HOWEVER...THEY WILL
RESULT IN A CHANCE FOR A PERIOD OR TWO OF RAIN SHOWERS FRI NIGHT
AND/OR SAT. WHILE A PERIOD OF SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
EVERYWHERE...HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN A PERIOD OF WET WEATHER WILL BE
ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN.  TEMPS LIKELY REMAIN AT LEAST A BIT BELOW
NORMAL.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.  MUCH OF THIS TIME MAY TURN OUT DRY UNTIL
LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT...WHEN THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES WITH
THE RISK FOR RAIN SHOWERS.  TEMPS WILL LIKELY AVERAGE NEAR OR BELOW
NORMAL WITH THE TENDENCY FOR UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IN THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN OVERALL TRENDS...HAVE LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING IN TAFS.

CONDITIONS HAVE DETERIORATED TO MAINLY LOW END MVFR-IFR EARLY THIS
MORNING IN LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.  THERE WAS ALSO FOG NEAR THE
SOUTH COAST THAT WAS REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO A HALF MILE.

ALL IN ALL...EXPECT MAINLY LOW END MVFR TO IFR THROUGH TONIGHT AS
SHOWERS BECOME WIDESPREAD.  LOW PROBABILITY OF SOME THUNDER
ACCOMPANYING SOME OF THE RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
WELL. OVERNIGHT...RAIN MAY BRIEFLY TRANSITION TO A MIX OF
SNOW/SLEET BEFORE ENDING FROM W TO E. ACCUMULATIONS OF ANY WINTRY
PRECIP WOULD BE LIGHT. A TREND TOWARD VFR IS EXPECTED DURING THE
MORNING HOURS.

OTHERWISE...STRONG S-SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE DAY
TODAY...WITH GUSTS ONCE AGAIN 30-40 KT POSSIBLE AT TIMES. LLWS
WILL BE AN ISSUE AS WELL...40-50 KT THROUGH MORNING...WITH 50+ KT
POSSIBLE OFF THE DECK DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS
RAPIDLY SHIFT TO THE W-NW WITH THE COLD AIR TONIGHT...BUT GUSTS
REMAIN ELEVATED AT LEAST 20-30 KT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TRENDS...LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN TAFS.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TRENDS...LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN TAFS.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 KNOTS WED MORNING SHOULD DIMINISH
SOME BY WED AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY BY WED EVENING.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  A
PERIOD OF MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE IN SOME LOW CLOUDS/FOG
PATCHES AND A ROUND OR TWO OF RAIN SHOWERS.  TIMING AND CONFIDENCE
IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN...BUT BEST CHANCE OF THE LOWER CONDITIONS WILL
BE ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

S-SW WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY SUCH THAT GALE
FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY BY THIS AFTERNOON...CONTINUING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. GALE WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THIS THREAT. THESE
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE W-NW EARLY WED MORNING BUT CONTINUE WITH
GALE FORCE GUSTS UNTIL THEY SUBSIDE BY MID MORNING WED.

SOME HEAVY RAIN/FOG AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WELL.

SEAS INCREASE TO 10-12 FT.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 KNOTS IN
THE MORNING SHOULD LOWER TO SCA LEVELS BY AFTERNOON.  SEAS ACROSS
THE OPEN WATERS WILL REMAIN ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS GIVEN PLENTY OF
LEFT OVER SOUTHERLY SWELL.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL RESULT IN NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 20
TO 25 KNOTS MUCH OF THE TIME.  IN ADDITION...SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER-
WATERS WILL LIKELY REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  POTENTIAL FOR NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS
OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND MARGINAL SCA SEAS CONTINUES.  HOWEVER...EXACT
WIND SPEEDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS WILL DEPEND ON THE TRACK OF A COUPLE
WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD CONTINUES THE CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY. THIS IS DUE TO
THE EXPECTATION THAT SWOLLEN RIVER CONDITIONS AS A RESULT OF
UPSTREAM SNOWMELT COMBINING WITH THE BASIN AVERAGE 1.0-1.5 INCHES
OF RAINFALL ANTICIPATED INTO TONIGHT MAY RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING
OF MAINSTEM RIVERS AND ADJOINING CREEKS AND STREAMS. THERE IS ALSO
THE POTENTIAL FOR URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING THROUGHOUT THE
WATCH AREA.

THIS WATCH HAS BEEN EXPANDED E TO INCLUDE ERN MA AND RI AS WELL
HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT A BAND OF 1.5 OR MORE INCHES IN A SHORT TIME
MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING AS WELL AS SOME
MINOR FLOODING IN FLASHIER RIVERS/STREAMS. THIS THREAT IS
EXACERBATED IN THE MORE DENSE URBAN CORE ALONG AND AROUND THE I-95
AND I-195 CORRIDORS...ESPECIALLY IF SOME CONVECTIVE HEAVY RAIN
OCCURS...SOMETHING LATEST MESOSCALE GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT IN
THESE AREAS FURTHER E.

FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER FOR HARTFORD
AND MIDDLE HADDAM. HOWEVER CURRENT PROJECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS
SUGGEST OTHER POINTS ALONG THE RIVER MAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
REACH MINOR FLOOD WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THOSE WITH
INTERESTS ALONG LOWER REACHES OF CT RIVER SHOULD PAY ATTENTION TO
THE LATEST FORECASTS AND CURRENT WATER LEVELS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A CONTINUATION OF STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS...GUSTING 30-40 MPH
OVER THE WATERS /HIGHER NEAR SHORE/ A POTENTIAL SURGE OF 1.5 FEET
OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER IS POSSIBLE ALONG S COASTAL LOCATIONS WITH THE
LATE EVENING HIGH TIDE /9-10 PM LOCAL/. THIS TIDE IS HIGHER THAN
MOST OF LATE...BUT IS NOT NECESSARILY ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH.
HOWEVER...WITH THE ADDED SURGE AND OFFSHORE WAVE ACTION THERE IS
THE LOW PROBABILITY OF SOME SPLASHOVER OR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
WITH THIS HIGH TIDE. CURRENTLY THE FORECAST TIDE IS ABOUT 5.4 FT
AT THE FOX POINT GAUGE IN PROVIDENCE AS A REFERENCE.

THERE IS STILL NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME TO WARRANT THE
ISSUANCE OF A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT / ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTH-
COAST. WILL EVALUATE WITH LATER FORECASTS AND HIGHLIGHT IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MAZ002>021-026.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR
     MAZ004>007-012>024-026.
NH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR NHZ011-012-015.
RI...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR RIZ001>007.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR
     RIZ001>008.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR ANZ232-233-235-237-250-254>256.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ230-231-234-236-
     251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK/DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...DOODY/FRANK
MARINE...DOODY/FRANK
HYDROLOGY...DOODY
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...DOODY




000
FXUS61 KALY 151046
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
645 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING POWERFUL COLD FRONT WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. SOME OF THE RAIN MIGHT BE HEAVY.
BEHIND THE FRONT...WILL COME AN ABRUPT CHANGE TO SHARPLY COLDER
WEATHER BY TONIGHT. RAIN WILL TURN TO ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS...AND TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS REMAINDER OF THE
REGION. THE SUN WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY BUT IT WILL MUCH COOLER
THAN TODAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR AREAS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION INCLUDING RENSSELAER COUNTY.

FOR THIS UPDATE...ONLY VERY MINOR RE-TOOLING OF THE HOURLY GRIDS
LEAVING THE FORECAST BASICALLY AS IT WAS.

AS OF 645 AM EDT...SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUED TO SLOWLY INCREASE
ACROSS THE REGION. A MUCH LARGER AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WAS
MOVING NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AS WELL AS A LARGE AREA OF
RAIN ASSOCIATED THE WITH COLD FRONT...NOW MOVING INTO CENTRAL NEW
YORK STATE.

AS OUR REGION COMES UNDERNEATH THE ENTRANCE OF SLIGHTLY
ANTICYLONICALLY CURVED UPPER LEFT JET APPROACHING 130KTS...UPWARD
MOTION WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE.

TEMPERATURES OVER OUR REGION HAVE REMAINED EXCEPTIONALLY MILD
LOWER TO MID 60S FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EAST...55 TO AROUND 60
FURTHER NORTH AND WEST INCLUDING THE ADIRONDACKS.

A SOUTH BREEZE CONTINUED 5 TO 15 MPH ACROSS THE REGION...GUSTING TO
25 MPH AT TIMES. THESE VALUES WERE DOWN A LITTLE FROM EARLIER IN THE
EVENING.

THE SHOWERS WILL EVOLVE INTO A MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN THROUGH
MIDDAY... WHICH COULD BECOME HEAVY WELL WEST OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY...AND DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM THE HUDSON EASTWARD.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE REACHED WELL BEFORE NOON ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS...GENERALLY 55 TO 60. FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...60S WILL
BE COMMON...MID TO UPPER 60S FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY SOUTHEASTWARD.
IF WE WERE TO GET SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE (UNLIKELY) SOME SPOTS
COULD BRIEFLY REACH INTO THE 70S...BUT RIGHT NOW WE ARE NOT
FORECASTING THEM TO BE QUITE THAT WARM AS RAIN WILL SERVE TO COOL
THE BOUNDARY DOWN A BIT ON ITS OWN. IF WE WERE TO GET ANY BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE THAT WOULD INCREASE THUNDERSTORM RISKS...AND WIND GUSTS AS
WELL.

THE SOUTHERLY WIND WILL INCREASE ONCE MORE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
RIGHT NOW...BASED ON THE WIND PROFILES AND THE FACT THAT MOISTURE
SHOULD PROHIBIT A DEEP OF MIXING AS YESTERDAY (DESPITE STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT)...WE HAVE NOT ISSUED ANY WIND ADVISORIES. HOWEVER...WE
HAVE WIND GUSTS REACHING UP TO 40 MPH IN THE GRIDS. ALSO...SOME
LIMITED INSTABILITY MIGHT ALLOW FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS COULD TAP STRONGER WINDS ALOFT (EVEN IF THEY ARE NOT
TALL). THESE COULD BRING ADDITIONAL WIND GUSTS DOWN SO WE KEPT
(THUNDERSTORMS MIGHT CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS IN THE FORECAST) EVEN
THOUGH THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS LOW...AND SEVERE ONES
(CONTAINING WIND GUSTS 60 MPH OR HIGHER) VERY LOW.   SOUTH WIND WILL
TURN TO THE WEST ONCE THE FRONT GOES BY...BY NOON ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS/WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...DURING THE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
CATSKILLS/HUDSON VALLEY...AND EARLY EVENING SOUTHEASTERN ZONES.

RAINFALL RATES COULD REACH UP TO HALF AN INCH PER HOUR AT TIMES
RIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND GENERATE A PLETHORA OF HYDRO
ISSUES. MORE ABOUT THESE CAN BE FOUND IN OUR HYDRO SECTION.

TEMPERATURES BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT HAVE PLUNGED INTO THE 30S IN
OHIO AND EVEN DUNKIRK IN NY. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP QUICKLY THROUGH
THE 30S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS DURING THE AFTERNOON...CHANGING THE
RAIN INITIALLY TO SLEET AND THEN TO SNOW. FURTHER
EAST...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 30S (40S SOUTHEAST) BY DARK.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP TO OUR EAST AND PURE ARCTIC AIR
WILL SEND EVERYONE BELOW FREEZING...GENERALLY MID TO UPPER 20S.
FURTHER NORTH AND WEST TEENS WILL BE COMMON IN THE ADIRONDACKS. A
GUSTY WEST WIND WILL ADD TO THE CHILL BUT AGAIN SHOULD REMAIN JUST
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE COLD AIR WILL ALLOW ALL AREAS TO THE
RAIN END AS SOME SNOW SHOWERS.

ACCUMULATION OF SNOW LOOK TO BE 1-4 INCHES ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS
AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION COULD SEE A
COATING TO PERHAPS 2 INCHES WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. NO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WERE ISSUED WITH
THIS PACKAGE BUT COULD BE LATER TODAY.

ALL PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO END SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT FOLLOWED BY
PARTIAL CLEAR.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY BUT WITH TEMPERATURES MORE
TYPICAL OF MID MARCH THAN MID APRIL. DAYTIME HIGHS LOOK TO ONLY THE
UPPER 40S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD...WHILE THE
REMAINDER OF THE HUDSON VALLEY WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT ONLY AROUND
40-45 DEGREES. HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL REMAIN MAINLY IN THE 30S. A
NORTHWEST BREEZE 10 TO 20 MPH WILL ADD TO THE CHILL AT TIMES.
HOWEVER...A STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE SHOULD NEGATE THAT CHILL A
LITTLE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT UNDER A MAINLY CLEAR SKY AND DIMINISHING
WIND...IDEAL RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS WILL ENSUE. THE ONLY MITIGATING
FACTOR IS THAT OUR NIGHTTIME HOURS ARE NOW LESS THAN 11 HOURS IN
LENGTH. BY THE END OF THE NIGHT SOME AREAS COULD PICK A LITTLE BIT
OF A SOUTHERLY BREEZE BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD DECOUPLE. LOOK FOR LOWS
AGAIN IN THE TEENS NORTH AND 20S SOUTH. THESE VALUES WILL BE PRETTY
CLOSE TO RECORD LOWS IN SOME CASES...BUT NOT QUITE ECLIPSING THEM.

BY THURSDAY...THE STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
MODERATE THIS CHILLING AIRMASS. WE ARE FORECASTING TEMPERATURES TO
CLIMB JUST SHY OF NORMAL HIGHS FOR MID APRILS. THAT WOULD GENERALLY
BE IN THE 50S...UPPER 50S LOCALLY.

HOWEVER...AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER US ON THURSDAY NIGHT
FROM THE NORTHEAST  THIS FEATURE WILL PROVIDE A CONTINUATION OF A
MAINLY CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WIND ONCE MORE. THEREFORE..WE WILL HAVE
AT LEAST ONE MORE NIGHT WITH GENERALLY SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES IN
THE 20S TO NEAR 30.


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST SHOULD START OUT WITH
GENERALLY PLEASANT CONDITIONS...WITH NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY INCREASES AS
WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND...AS THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION OF AN UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES OR OHIO VALLEY REGION
REACHING THE AREA...ALONG WITH SOME POSSIBLE INFLUX OF SOME
GULF/ATLANTIC MOISTURE...CREATING CLOUDS AND SOME RAIN SHOWERS.
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS COULD LINGER INTO SUNDAY BEFORE
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT BY MONDAY.

FOR FRI INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...A LOW LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD EXTEND INTO THE REGION FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...KEEPING
OUR REGION GENERALLY DRY INTO EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THE SYSTEM TO
OUR WEST AND INCREASING ATLANTIC MOISTURE CONVERGE ON THE REGION
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO SLIGHT TO LOW
CHANCE. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 30S.

SAT-SUN...MOST MODELS AND ENSEMBLE SUITES SUGGEST THAT A SHORTWAVE
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION BRINGS SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION...ESP ON SAT...WITH SOME RAIN SHOWERS.
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ALSO IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
REGION. THESE TWO DISTURBANCES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN UNPHASED AT
THIS TIME. IN ADDITION...THE SOUTHERN DISTURBANCE MAY LIMIT THE
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY TO THE NORTHERN SYSTEM. NEVERTHELESS...WILL
KEEP 40-50 PERCENT POPS FOR SHOWERS ON SAT...TAPERING TO AROUND 30
PERCENT SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT SUNDAY. HIGHS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE
MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN ANOTHER SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE TO
LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON MONDAY. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
MID 30S TO AROUND 40. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT AND
TUESDAY...PASSING ACROSS THE TAF SITES TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN
SHOWERS FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE
SPOTTY AND HAVE MAINLY INDICATED VCSH AT THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF TAF
SITES...BUT A STRATUS DECK SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION BEFORE
SUNRISE AND HAVE INDICATED MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS AT THE
TAF SITES AFTER 08-09Z.

FROM MID MORNING ON EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/RAIN WITH MAINLY IFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL THE TAF SITES INTO MONDAY EVENING. DURING THE
EVENING IT WILL LIKELY GET COLD ENOUGH FOR A WINTRY MIX OF PCPN AT
KGFL/KALB/KPSF (GENERALLY AFT 16/01Z). AT KPOU THE STEADY PCPN
SHOULD END BEFORE IT GETS COLD ENOUGH FOR MIXED PCPN. AFTER ABOUT
04-05Z EXPECT JUST FLURRIES AT THE TAF SITES WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO MVFR.

STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE COLD FRONT PASSES
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS OF 12-18 KTS AND GUSTS OF 20 TO 27
KTS FORECAST. THERE SHOULD BE A SLIGHT DECREASE IN THE WINDS EARLY
THIS MORNING (AROUND SUNRISE). BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THE WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST OR NORTHWEST AND REMAIN STRONG. WIND GUSTS COULD
EXCEED 30 KTS...ESPECIALLY AT KALB.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
     THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS TODAY...

MOST OF OUR REGION IS NOW SNOW FREE. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WAS ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE SNOW COVER REMAINED.

A SOAKING RAIN IS FORECAST FOR ALL REGIONS WITH OVER A QUARTER OF AN
INCH TODAY. A "WET FLAG" WAS ASSIGNED TO ALL FWM SITES ON MONDAY.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL DRIVE MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION BY
TONIGHT. RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACK BY DAY/ END
WITH A MINOR ACCUMULATION EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION COULD SEE RAIN ENDING AS SNOW SHOWERS THIS
EVENING...WITH COATING OF SNOW POSSIBLE.

SUNSHINE RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH A BRISK WEST WIND 5 TO 15
MPH...BUT GUSTING UP TO 25-30 MPH.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR THE ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY/LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA
REGION CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TACONICS...SOUTHERN VERMONT AND THE
NORTHERN BERKSHIRES.

WE ALREADY HAVE SOME HYDRO ISSUES DUE TO RAPID SNOWMELT...THANKS TO
NOT ONLY WARM AFTERNOON HIGHS...BUT TEMPERATURES REMAINING WAY ABOVE
FREEZING AT NIGHT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL EVOLVE INTO A WIDESPREAD RAIN TODAY ACROSS
THE REGION. AS A STRONG COLD FRONT PLOWS INTO AN INCREASINGLY MOIST
AIR MASS...WITH PWATS APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES...BY AFTERNOON A LINE
OF VERY HEAVY TO TORRENTIAL SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE. RAINFALL RATES
COULD APPROACH HALF AN INCH PER HOUR AT TIMES. OVERALL WE ARE
LOOKING FOR 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN. IF THUNDERSTORMS WERE TO
HAPPEN...AMOUNTS COULD LOCALLY EXCEED 2 INCHES...PERHAPS CLOSER TO 3
INCHES.

THIS TYPE OF RAIN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MARKED RISES ON MOST RIVERS
AND STREAMS. SEVERAL POINTS ON OUR RIVERS ARE PROJECTED TO REACH
MINOR OR EVEN MODERATE FLOOD. ALSO...THE HEAVY RAIN RATE WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO SOME PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND AREAS OF POOR
DRAINAGE. THERE IS EVEN A SLIGHT CHANCE A LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
RIGHT NOW THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING WAS NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS THE CHANCES ARE UNDER 25 PERCENT BUT CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE. PLEASE REFER BACK TO THE PORTION OF THE AFD LATER ON IF
YOU ARE CONCERNED ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY FLOODING.

AS COLDER AIR POURS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...RAIN WILL TURN TO
SNOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...PRODUCING MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. FURTHER SOUTH AND
EAST...THE PRECIPITATION COULD EVEN END AS SNOW SHOWERS WITH A
COATING IN PLACES.

THIS COLDER AIR WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING EVERYWHERE
OVERNIGHT...THUS SLOWING DOWN THE RUNOFF. HOWEVER...LARGE STEM
RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND NOT CREST UNTIL WEDNESDAY.

DRY WEATHER IS IN STORE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR NYZ032-033-038>043-
     050-053-054-082>084.
MA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MAZ001.
VT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV










000
FXUS61 KALY 150845
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
445 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING POWERFUL COLD FRONT WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. SOME OF THE RAIN MIGHT BE HEAVY.
BEHIND THE FRONT...WILL COME AN ABRUPT CHANGE TO SHARPLY COLDER
WEATHER BY TONIGHT. RAIN WILL TURN TO ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS...AND TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS REMAINDER OF THE
REGION. THE SUN WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY BUT IT WILL MUCH COOLER
THAN TODAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR AREAS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION INCLUDING RENSSELAER COUNTY.

AS OF 430 AM EDT...SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS INCREASING IN ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE REGION AS BROAD ASCENT HAS BEGUN AND MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE. UNFORTUNATELY...THICK CLOUDS WILL LIKELY MAKE VIEWING THE
ONGOING LUNAR ECLIPSE NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO SEE.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WAS MAKING SLOW BUT STEADY PROGRESS ACROSS
WESTERN NEW YORK...TO THE EAST OF ROCHESTER BUT JUST TO THE WEST OF
DANSVILLE. CLOUDS TOPS WERE COOLING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ALL THE
WAY SOUTH TO THE GULF WHERE LOTS OF CONVECTION WAS FIRING UP. THE
QUESTION COULD THIS CONVECTION ROB US OF SOME MOISTURE?
POSSIBLY...BUT MORE THAN LIKELY...AS OUR REGION COMES UNDERNEATH THE
ENTRANCE OF SLIGHTLY ANTICYLONICALLY CURVED UPPER LEFT JET
APPROACHING 130KTS...UPWARD MOTION WILL INCREASE.

TEMPERATURES OVER OUR REGION HAVE REMAINED EXCEPTIONALLY MILD
...LOWER TO MID 60S FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EAST...55 TO AROUND
60 FURTHER NORTH AND WEST INCLUDING THE ADIRONDACKS.

A SOUTH BREEZE CONTINUED 5 TO 15 MPH ACROSS THE REGION...GUSTING TO
25 MPH AT TIMES. THESE VALUES WERE DOWN A LITTLE FROM EARLIER IN THE
EVENING.

FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE...AND THERE COULD BE RUMBLE OF THUNDER. TEMPERATURES WILL
ONLY DROP A LITTLE MORE IF AT ALL...BOTTOMING OUT BETWEEN THE MID
50S AND LOWER 60S.

AFTER DAYBREAK...THE SHOWERS WILL EVOLVE INTO A MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN
WHICH COULD BECOME HEAVY BY MIDDAY WELL WEST OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY...AND DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM THE HUDSON EASTWARD.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE REACHED WELL BEFORE NOON ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS...GENERALLY 55 TO 60. FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...60S WILL
BE COMMON...MID TO UPPER 60S FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY SOUTHEASTWARD.
IF WE WERE TO GET SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE (UNLIKELY) SOME SPOTS
COULD BRIEFLY REACH INTO THE 70S...BUT RIGHT NOW WE ARE NOT FORECASTING
THEM TO BE QUITE THAT WARM AS RAIN WILL SERVE TO COOL THE BOUNDARY
DOWN A BIT ON ITS OWN.

SOUTHERLY WIND WILL INCREASE ONCE MORE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. RIGHT
NOW...BASED ON THE WIND PROFILES AND THE FACT THAT MOISTURE SHOULD
PROHIBIT AS GOOD MIXING AS YESTERDAY (DESPITE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT)
WE HAVE NOT ISSUED ANY WIND ADVISORIES. HOWEVER...WE HAVE WIND GUSTS
REACHING UP TO 40 MPH IN THE GRIDS. ALSO...SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY
MIGHT ALLOW FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. ANY THUNDERSTORMS COULD TAP
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT (EVEN IF THEY ARE NOT TALL). THESE COULD BRING
ADDITIONAL WIND GUSTS DOWN SO WE KEPT (THUNDERSTORMS MIGHT CONTAIN
GUSTY WINDS IN THE FORECAST) EVEN THOUGH THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS
LOOKS LOW...AND SEVERE ONES (CONTAINING WIND GUSTS 60 MPH OR HIGHER)
VERY LOW.   SOUTH WIND WILL TURN TO THE WEST ONCE THE FRONT GOES
BY...BY NOON ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS/WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...DURING
THE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE CATSKILLS/HUDSON VALLEY...AND EARLY
EVENING SOUTHEASTERN ZONES.

RAINFALL RATES COULD REACH UP TO HALF AN INCH PER HOUR AT TIMES
RIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND GENERATE A PLETHORA OF HYDRO ISSUES.
MORE ABOUT THESE CAN BE FOUND IN OUR HYDRO SECTION.

TEMPERATURES BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT HAVE PLUNGED INTO THE 30S IN
OHIO AND EVEN DUNKIRK IN NY. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP QUICKLY THROUGH THE
30S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS DURING THE AFTERNOON...CHANGING THE RAIN
INITIALLY TO SLEET AND THEN TO SNOW. FURTHER EAST...TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP INTO THE 30S (40S SOUTHEAST) BY DARK.

TONIGHT...THE FRONT WILL SWEEP TO OUR EAST AND PURE ARCTIC AIR WILL
SEND EVERYONE BELOW FREEZING...GENERALLY MID TO UPPER 20S. FURTHER
NORTH AND WEST TEENS WILL BE COMMON IN THE ADIRONDACKS. A GUSTY WEST
WIND WILL ADD TO THE CHILL BUT AGAIN SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE COLD AIR WILL ALLOW ALL AREAS TO THE RAIN END
AS SOME SNOW SHOWERS.

ACCUMULATION OF SNOW LOOK TO BE 1-4 INCHES ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS
AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION COULD SEE A
COATING TO PERHAPS 2 INCHES WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. NO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WERE ISSUED WITH
THIS PACKAGE BUT COULD BE LATER TODAY.

ALL PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO END SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT FOLLOWED BY
PARTIAL CLEAR.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY BUT WITH TEMPERATURES MORE
TYPICAL OF MID MARCH THAN MID APRIL. DAYTIME HIGHS LOOK TO ONLY THE
UPPER 40S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD...WHILE THE
REMAINDER OF THE HUDSON VALLEY WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT ONLY AROUND 40-45
DEGREES. HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL REMAIN MAINLY IN THE 30S. A
NORTHWEST BREEZE 10 TO 20 MPH WILL ADD TO THE CHILL AT TIMES.
HOWEVER...A STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE SHOULD NEGATE THAT CHILL A
LITTLE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT UNDER A MAINLY CLEAR SKY AND DIMINISHING
WIND...IDEAL RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS WILL ENSUE. THE ONLY MITIGATING
FACTOR IS THAT OUR NIGHTTIME HOURS ARE NOW LESS THAN 11 HOURS IN
LENGTH. BY THE END OF THE NIGHT SOME AREAS COULD PICK A LITTLE BIT
OF A SOUTHERLY BREEZE BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD DECOUPLE. LOOK FOR LOWS
AGAIN IN THE TEENS NORTH AND 20S SOUTH. THESE VALUES WILL BE PRETTY
CLOSE TO RECORD LOWS IN SOME CASES...BUT NOT QUITE ECLIPSING THEM.

BY THURSDAY...THE STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
MODERATE THIS CHILLING AIRMASS. WE ARE FORECASTING TEMPERATURES TO
CLIMB JUST SHY OF NORMAL HIGHS FOR MID APRILS. THAT WOULD GENERALLY
BE IN THE 50S...UPPER 50S LOCALLY.

HOWEVER...AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER US ON THURSDAY NIGHT
FROM THE NORTHEAST  THIS FEATURE WILL PROVIDE A CONTINUATION OF A
MAINLY CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WIND ONCE MORE. THEREFORE..WE WILL HAVE
AT LEAST ONE MORE NIGHT WITH GENERALLY SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES IN
THE 20S TO NEAR 30.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP TO OUR EAST AND PURE ARCTIC AIR WILL SEND
EVERYONE BELOW FREEZING...GENERALLY MID TO UPPER 20S. FURTHER NORTH
AND WEST TEENS WILL BE COMMON IN THE ADIRONDACKS. A GUSTY WEST WIND
WILL ADD TO THE CHILL BUT AGAIN SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA. THE COLD AIR WILL ALLOW ALL AREAS TO THE RAIN END AS SOME
SNOW SHOWERS.

ACCUMULATION OF SNOW LOOKS TO BE 1-4 INCHES ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS
AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION COULD SEE A
COATING TO PERHAPS 2 INCHES WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. NO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WERE ISSUED WITH
THIS PACKAGE BUT COULD BE LATER TODAY.

ALL PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO END SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT FOLLOWED BY
PARTIAL CLEAR.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY BUT WITH TEMPERATURES MORE
TYPICAL OF MID MARCH THAN MID APRIL. DAYTIME HIGHS LOOK TO ONLY THE
UPPER 40S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD...WHILE THE
REMAINDER OF THE HUDSON VALLEY WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT ONLY AROUND 40-45
DEGREES. HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL REMAIN MAINLY IN THE 30S. A
NORTHWEST BREEZE 10 TO 20 MPH WILL ADD TO THE CHILL AT TIMES.
HOWEVER...A STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE SHOULD NEGATE THAT CHILL A
LITTLE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT UNDER A MAINLY CLEAR SKY AND DIMINISHING
WIND...IDEAL RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS WILL ENSUE. THE ONLY MITIGATING
FACTOR IS THAT OUR NIGHTTIME HOURS ARE NOW LESS THAN 11 HOURS IN
LENGTH. BY THE END OF THE NIGHT SOME AREAS COULD PICK A LITTLE BIT
OF A SOUTHERLY BREEZE BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD DECOUPLE. LOOK FOR LOWS
AGAIN IN THE TEENS NORTH AND 20S SOUTH. THESE VALUES WILL BE PRETTY
CLOSE TO RECORD LOWS IN SOME CASES...BUT NOT QUITE ECLIPSING THEM.

BY THURSDAY...THE STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
MODERATE THIS CHILLING AIRMASS. WE ARE FORECASTING TEMPERATURES TO
CLIMB JUST SHY OF NORMAL HIGHS FOR MID APRILS. THAT WOULD GENERALLY
BE IN THE 50S...UPPER 50S LOCALLY.

HOWEVER...AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER US ON THURSDAY NIGHT
FROM THE NORTHEAST  THIS FEATURE WILL PROVIDE A CONTINUATION OF A
MAINLY CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WIND ONCE MORE. THEREFORE..WE WILL HAVE
AT LEAST ONE MORE NIGHT WITH GENERALLY SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES IN
THE 20S TO NEAR 30.


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST SHOULD START OUT WITH
GENERALLY PLEASANT CONDITIONS...WITH NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY INCREASES AS
WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND...AS THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION OF AN UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES OR OHIO VALLEY REGION
REACHING THE AREA...ALONG WITH SOME POSSIBLE INFLUX OF SOME
GULF/ATLANTIC MOISTURE...CREATING CLOUDS AND SOME RAIN SHOWERS.
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS COULD LINGER INTO SUNDAY BEFORE
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT BY MONDAY.

FOR FRI INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...A LOW LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD EXTEND INTO THE REGION FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...KEEPING
OUR REGION GENERALLY DRY INTO EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THE SYSTEM TO
OUR WEST AND INCREASING ATLANTIC MOISTURE CONVERGE ON THE REGION
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO SLIGHT TO LOW
CHANCE. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 30S.

SAT-SUN...MOST MODELS AND ENSEMBLE SUITES SUGGEST THAT A SHORTWAVE
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION BRINGS SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION...ESP ON SAT...WITH SOME RAIN SHOWERS.
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ALSO IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
REGION. THESE TWO DISTURBANCES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN UNPHASED AT
THIS TIME. IN ADDITION...THE SOUTHERN DISTURBANCE MAY LIMIT THE
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY TO THE NORTHERN SYSTEM. NEVERTHELESS...WILL
KEEP 40-50 PERCENT POPS FOR SHOWERS ON SAT...TAPERING TO AROUND 30
PERCENT SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT SUNDAY. HIGHS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE
MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN ANOTHER SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE TO
LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON MONDAY. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
MID 30S TO AROUND 40. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT AND
TUESDAY...PASSING ACROSS THE TAF SITES TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN
SHOWERS FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE
SPOTTY AND HAVE MAINLY INDICATED VCSH AT THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF TAF
SITES...BUT A STRATUS DECK SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION BEFORE
SUNRISE AND HAVE INDICATED MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS AT THE
TAF SITES AFTER 08-09Z.

FROM MID MORNING ON EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/RAIN WITH MAINLY IFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL THE TAF SITES INTO MONDAY EVENING. DURING THE
EVENING IT WILL LIKELY GET COLD ENOUGH FOR A WINTRY MIX OF PCPN AT
KGFL/KALB/KPSF (GENERALLY AFT 16/01Z). AT KPOU THE STEADY PCPN
SHOULD END BEFORE IT GETS COLD ENOUGH FOR MIXED PCPN. AFTER ABOUT
04-05Z EXPECT JUST FLURRIES AT THE TAF SITES WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO MVFR.

STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE COLD FRONT PASSES
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS OF 12-18 KTS AND GUSTS OF 20 TO 27
KTS FORECAST. THERE SHOULD BE A SLIGHT DECREASE IN THE WINDS EARLY
THIS MORNING (AROUND SUNRISE). BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THE WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST OR NORTHWEST AND REMAIN STRONG. WIND GUSTS COULD
EXCEED 30 KTS...ESPECIALLY AT KALB.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS TODAY...

MOST OF OUR REGION IS NOW SNOW FREE. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WAS ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE SNOW COVER REMAINED.

A SOAKING RAIN IS FORECAST FOR ALL REGIONS WITH OVER A QUARTER OF AN
INCH TODAY. A "WET FLAG" WAS ASSIGNED TO ALL FWM SITES ON MONDAY.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL DRIVE MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION BY
TONIGHT. RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACK BY DAY/ END
WITH A MINOR ACCUMULATION EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION COULD SEE RAIN ENDING AS SNOW SHOWERS THIS
EVENING...WITH COATING OF SNOW POSSIBLE.

SUNSHINE RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH A BRISK WEST WIND 5 TO 15
MPH...BUT GUSTING UP TO 25-30 MPH.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR THE ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY/LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA
REGION CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TACONICS...SOUTHERN VERMONT AND THE NORTHERN
BERKSHIRES.

WE ALREADY HAVE SOME HYDRO ISSUES DUE TO RAPID SNOWMELT...THANKS TO
NOT ONLY WARM AFTERNOON HIGHS...BUT TEMPERATURES REMAINING WAY ABOVE
FREEZING AT NIGHT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL EVOLVE INTO A WIDESPREAD RAIN TODAY ACROSS
THE REGION. AS A STRONG COLD FRONT PLOWS INTO AN INCREASINGLY MOIST
AIR MASS...WITH PWATS APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES...BY AFTERNOON A LINE
OF VERY HEAVY TO TORRENTIAL SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE. RAINFALL RATES
COULD APPROACH HALF AN INCH PER HOUR AT TIMES. OVERALL WE ARE
LOOKING FOR 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN. IF THUNDERSTORMS WERE TO
HAPPEN...AMOUNTS COULD LOCALLY EXCEED 2 INCHES...PERHAPS CLOSER TO 3
INCHES.

THIS TYPE OF RAIN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MARKED RISES ON MOST RIVERS
AND STREAMS. SEVERAL POINTS ON OUR RIVERS ARE PROJECTED TO REACH
MINOR OR EVEN MODERATE FLOOD. ALSO...THE HEAVY RAIN RATE WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO SOME PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND AREAS OF POOR
DRAINAGE. THERE IS EVEN A SLIGHT CHANCE A LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
RIGHT NOW THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING WAS NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS THE CHANCES ARE UNDER 25 PERCENT BUT CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE. PLEASE REFER BACK TO THE PORTION OF THE AFD LATER ON IF
YOU ARE CONCERNED ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY FLOODING.

AS COLDER AIR POURS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...RAIN WILL TURN TO
SNOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...PRODUCING MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. FURTHER SOUTH AND
EAST...THE PRECIPITATION COULD EVEN END AS SNOW SHOWERS WITH A
COATING IN PLACES.

THIS COLDER AIR WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING EVERYWHERE
OVERNIGHT...THUS SLOWING DOWN THE RUNOFF. HOWEVER...LARGE STEM
RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND NOT CREST UNTIL WEDNESDAY.

DRY WEATHER IS IN STORE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR NYZ032-033-038>043-
     050-053-054-082>084.
MA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MAZ001.
VT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV










000
FXUS61 KOKX 150844
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
444 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST OF THE REGION TOWARDS THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...WEAKENING DURING THE PROCESS. LOW PRESSURE ALONG A STALLED
FRONT TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION APPROACHES FRIDAY AND PASSES EAST
OF THE REGION SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AND OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...AND
WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS ATMOSPHERE BECOMES MORE UNSTABLE
DURING THE DAY LIGHT HOURS AND FORCING INCREASES. A STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET OF 60 TO 70 KT WILL ALSO AID IN THE LIFT ACROSS THE REGION LATE
THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY AND INTO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY WITH LOWER
INSTABILITY INTO NEW YORK CITY AND WESTERN LONG ISLAND WITH A STRONG
MARINE INFLUENCE. EXPECTING ISOLATED THUNDER WITH GUSTY WIND AS LOW
LEVELS WINDS ARE POTENTIALLY BROUGHT TO THE SURFACE...POTENTLY FOR
WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH. ALSO...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL
BE AROUND 1 1/2 INCH WHICH IS AROUND 2 1/2 TIMES NORMAL VALUE...SO
WILL MENTION POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER RAINFALL. LOCALIZED URBAN AND LOW
LYING FLOODING POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY INTO NYC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION THIS EVENING INTO LATE TONIGHT WITH
THE PRECIPITATION ENDING. FORCING DIMINISHES QUICKLY WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL SOME LINGERING SHOWERS POST FRONTAL
POSSIBLE. MUCH COLDER AIR LAGS BEHIND THE FRONT THAT MUCH OF THE
PRECIPITATION IS ENDED BY THAT TIME. THERE IS JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SNOW SHOWERS JUST TO THE VICINITY OF THE NEW YORK CITY METRO AREA
LATE TONIGHT. AND NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA TONIGHT WITH LOWS 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FREEZING OR NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. AND WITH THE GROWING SEASON
BEGINNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND
NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY HAVE ISSUED A FREEZING WARNING.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR WEDNESDAY WITH A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND IN
THE MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS
WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S...WHILE NORMAL HIGHS ARE IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAIN UPPER LEVEL JET SOUTH OF THE REGION MID TO LATE THIS WEEK WITH
AS BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS. A SHORTWAVE IN
THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL WITH ACCOMPANYING JET STREAK WILL MOVE IN
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AND EXIT EAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE REGION WILL THEN BE ON A NORTHEAST SIDE OF A LARGE
WEAK...RATHER FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING
SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE TRANSLATING NORTHEAST INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL ALLOW FOR A COOLER MARITIME TYPE OF AIRMASS
TO BE WITHIN THE REGION AS WE GET INTO A NORTHEAST FLOW REGIME. THIS
CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY BUT WITH WEAKENING WINDS...THE AIRMASS WILL
GRADUALLY MODERATE WITH A RESULTING SLOW INCREASE IN DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES EACH DAY.

IN TERMS OF WEATHER...DRY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THEREAFTER...A
TREND TOWARDS A MORE WET PATTERN EVIDENT STARTING FRIDAY WITH LOW
PRESSURE IN SOUTHEAST DEVELOPING AND APPROACHING ALONG A STALLED
FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS A TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING. CMC ONLY
MODEL SHOWING VERY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS
FRIDAY WITH GREATER MODEL AGREEMENT ON RAINFALL FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY.

THIS COMES WITH THE APPROACH OF THE TROUGH AND GREATER MOISTURE AND
WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW. RESIDUAL LIGHT NORTHEAST
FLOW AT THE SURFACE FURTHER INCREASES THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE.

THE TROUGH AXIS PUSHES EAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING
FOR A DRIER TREND TO WEATHER AS SHOWERS TAPER OFF AS MORE OF A
NORTHERLY FLOW WITH LESS EASTERLY COMPONENT SETTLES IN.

EARLY NEXT WEEK RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS AS HIGH PRES MOVES ACROSS AREA
AND EVENTUALLY OFFSHORE. AIRMASS WILL FURTHER MODERATE WITH WARMER
AND MORE MOIST AIRMASS MOVING IN.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VARYING CONDITIONS FOR THE PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS WITH STRONG SLY FLOW PERSISTING. WINDS
INCREASING GREATLY BY 10Z...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-30 KTS FOR THE DAY.
TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE SOMEWHERE 21-00Z...WITH WINDS SHIFTING
S-SW-NW DURING THIS TIME. WINDS WILL TAPER OFF SLIGHTLY WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE...THEN INCREASE AGAIN AS THE WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW.

LLWS ISSUES PERSISTING THROUGH LATE AFTN...WITH GENERALLY 50-60
KTS BETWEEN 1-2KFT.

PCPN BEGINS TO PUSH IN BETWEEN 09-12Z...WITH THE HEAVIEST PCPN
LOOKING TO MOVE IN AFTER 15Z. COULD SEE A PERIOD OF +SHRA OR EVEN AN
ISO TSTM BETWEEN 15 AND 21Z...BUT CONFIDENCE OF COVERAGE TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. COLD AIR RUSHING IN BEHIND THE FRONT COULD
ALSO RESULT IN LIGHT SNOW AT KSWF. THINKING THE END TIME OF THE PCPN
SHOULD OCCUR EVERYWHERE ELSE BEFORE THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN.

DEVELOPING FOG/STRATUS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL DROP CIGS/VIS TO
IFR OR LOWER. WILL SEE A BRIEF IMPROVEMENT WITH LIGHT PCPN MOVING
IN...THEN DROPPING DOWN AGAIN AFTER 15Z WITH THE HEAVIER RAIN.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY BE MORE OCNL IN NATURE THROUGH 13Z.
IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS MAY DELAY 1-2 HOURS.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE 1-2 HOURS LATER THAN IN
TAF WITH PCPN.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW-MOD CONFIDENCE ON LIFR CONDITIONS WITH
PCPN.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW-MOD CONFIDENCE ON IFR CONDITIONS WITH
PCPN.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: VIS MAY STAT REDUCED LESS THAN 1SM 10-15Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: LIFR CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST WITH PCPN AFTER
10Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT...NW-N WIND G 35-40KT POSSIBLE.
.WEDNESDAY...VFR. N WIND G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.THURSDAY...VFR. E WIND G 20-25KT POSSIBLE.
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.SATURDAY...LOW CHANCE OF -SHRA...WITH MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IF
-SHRA OCCURS.

&&

.MARINE...
POTENTIAL FOR FOG ON THE WATERS INCREASES TONIGHT AND CONTINUES INTO
TUESDAY. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED WITH EXPECTATION OF
VSBY TO DROP BELOW 1 NM OVERNIGHT WITH CONTINUED MOIST FLOW.

SMALL CRAFT SEAS ON THE OCEAN CONTINUES TODAY WITH A STRONG
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. WITH AN INCREASE IN THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WINDS
AND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THIS
MORNING. A LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL KEEP HIGHER WINDS FROM MIXING TO
THE WATER SURFACE. SO HAVE POSTED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL THE
FORECAST WATERS TODAY. WITH CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE WATERS LATE
THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY THE WESTERN
WATERS...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF GALE FORCE GUSTS.

BETTER MIXING WILL OCCUR TONIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT AS
STRONG COLD ADVECTION SETS UP BEHIND THE FRONT. GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE
LIKELY AND UPGRADED THE WATCH TO A WARNING. GALE FORCE GUSTS MAY
CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY HOURS OF WEDNESDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN ZONES...HOWEVER...DO NOT HAVE HIGH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
EXTEND THE WARNING.

IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL BE SLOWLY SUBSIDING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FALLING BELOW 5 FT ACROSS THE WATERS EAST OF
MORICHES INLET BY LATE AFTERNOON. SO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR SEAS WEDNESDAY IF THE GALE WARNING IS NOT
EXTENDED.

AFTER BRIEF LULL IN SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS OCEAN WED NIGHT...TOWARDS
DAYBREAK THU...RETURN OF SCA CONDITIONS FORECAST WITH EASTERLY FLOW
INCREASING. WINDS WILL TREND TO MOSTLY BELOW SCA BY LATE THU NIGHT
THROUGH REST OF MARINE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...SEAS WILL LIKELY
RETURN TO SCA LATE WED NIGHT ON THE OCEAN THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE
DROPPING BELOW SCA FOR WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND...HIGHER SEAS COULD COME BACK IN ON THE OCEAN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL OF 1 1/2 TO 2 INCHES...MAINLY ALL LIQUID...EXPECTED FROM
EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES.

MODERATE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS. ALSO LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR FLASHY SMALL STREAMS
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY INTO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY TO REACH
MINOR FLOOD LEVELS WITH 1 HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE AROUND 1 INCH.

NOTE...MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER.
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY CAUSE WATER LEVELS TO CONTINUE
TO RISE THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE FLOOD LEVELS
TO BE REACHED. MONITOR THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS FROM NWS TAUNTON MA.

AFTER TONIGHT NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIP EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ069-070.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ004-006-
     103>108.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345-350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-
     335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JM/MET
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...SEARS
MARINE...JM/MET
HYDROLOGY...JM/MET










000
FXUS61 KBOX 150825
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
425 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING A MIX OF GUSTY WINDS...SOAKING
RAIN...AND POSSIBLY EVEN A BRIEF CHANGE TO A WINTRY MIX BEFORE
ENDING DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TOMORROW. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN WILL BRING DRY BUT UNSEASONABLE CHILLY AIR TO THE
REGION WED/WED NIGHT. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THU INTO THE FIRST
PART OF FRI WITH MODERATING AFTERNOON TEMPS INLAND...BUT REMAINING
CHILLY ALONG THE COAST. A COUPLE WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MAY
BRING A ROUND OR TWO OF RAIN SHOWERS SOMETIME FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON/...
STRONG WARM ADVECTION AND GRADUAL MOISTURE FLUX CONTINUES THIS
MORNING. MANIFESTING ITSELF AS A BROAD AREA OF LOW AND MID CLOUDS
AS WELL AS SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS WHERE A POCKET OF LOW LVL
INSTABILITY IS MAXIMIZED ACROSS SE MA AND RI. HOWEVER...THROUGH
MID DAY...NOT EXPECTING THE SHOWERY ACTIVITY TO INCREASE IN
STRENGTH OR COVERAGE BY TOO MUCH GIVEN THAT STRONGER WAVE
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT TO THE W WILL CONTINUE TO
USURP MOST OF THE STRONG DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE UNTIL THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING /SEE BELOW FOR MORE ON THIS/. THE KEY ASIDE
FROM INCREASING SHOWERY ACTIVITY WILL BE WINDS DESPITE THE BKN-OVC
CLOUD COVER EXPECTED.

EARLY DAY MIXING SHOULD BE RELATIVELY DEEP ESPECIALLY FROM
WORCESTER COUNTY AND SOUTHEAST. MAINLY AS TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY START IN THE LOW 60S AND CLOUD DEPTH WILL BE LOWER THAN
AREAS TO THE W...CLOSER TO THE APPROACHING FRONT. SOUTHERLY LLJ
WILL BE MOVING IN AHEAD OF THIS WAVE/FRONT AND WILL PEAK THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...BUT WILL BE INCREASING FROM A START OF 45 KT AT
H92 AT 12Z...TO 70-80 KT BY THE AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE
LIKELY UNDERDONE IN TERMS OF MIXING AS THEY ARE INITIALIZING TOO
COLD AT THE SFC THIS MORNING. THEREFORE...WILL BE ISSUING A WIND
ADVISORY BEGINNING AT NOON...AS SOME OF THIS HIGH MOMENTUM IS
LIKELY TO BE TAPPED. WILL FOCUSED WHERE HIGHER MIXING IS LIKELY
/EAST OF WORCESTER COUNTY/ BUT THIS MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED
FURTHER W SINCE THE LLJ WILL ARRIVE WITH THE FRONT THERE FIRST.
EXPECTED WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH ARE LIKELY WITHIN THE WIND
ADVISORY...BUT SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

TEMPS...DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER...WILL LIKELY MAKE ANOTHER RUN AT
70F TODAY ACROSS THE E WHERE A BREAK OR TWO OF SUN IS POSSIBLE.
ESPECIALLY SINCE THEY WILL START IN THE LOW 60S. FURTHER W WHERE
CLOUDS WILL BE IN PLACE ALL DAY AND TEMPS ARE A BIT LOWER THIS
MORNING...ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /2 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
* STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS A MIX OF POTENTIAL IMPACTS *

A STRONG COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG MERGING OF NRN AND SRN
STREAM ENERGY WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE TODAY AND INTO THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS. GIVEN ITS ASSOCIATION WITH DECENT UPPER LVL
DYNAMICS...GOOD LOW-MID LVL F-GEN...AND CONNECTION TO GULF OF
MEXICO MOISTURE IT WILL LEAD TO A MIX OF POTENTIAL IMPACTS ACROSS
THE REGION BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AND
ALLOWING COLDER/DRIER AIR TO MOVE IN. WILL CONTINUE TO ADD THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISO-THUNDER WITH THE COLD FROPA ESPECIALLY AS MODEST
MID LVL LAPSE RATES AND GOOD SFC DWPTS SUGGEST AT LEAST THE LOW
END THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED IN THE RAINFALL BAND.

HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING...
GIVEN THE GULF MOISTURE AND PWAT VALUES EXCEEDING 1.5 INCHES
/APPROACHING 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL/ AND A STRONG
SOUTHERLY LLJ BETWEEN 70-80 KT...THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN IS
HIGH. THE STRONG JET WILL ALSO BE SUPPORTED BY MODEST MID LVL
LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.0C/KM SUGGESTING SOME CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS ARE
LIKELY AS THE FRONT MOVES FROM W-E THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. CORFIDI VECTORS ARE QUITE LOW WHICH SUGGESTS THAT
BANDED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS MAY LINGER IN SOME AREAS AS WELL. GIVEN
ALL THIS...EXPECTED WIDESPREAD RAIN TOTALS BETWEEN 1.0 AND 1.5
INCHES WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF AMOUNTS APPROACHING 2.0 INCHES IN
ANY CONVECTION. CURRENT FLOOD WATCH /GIVEN THE CONNECTICUT RIVER
IS ALREADY IN MINOR FLOOD IN AREAS OF CT/ LOOKS GOOD...BUT WILL BE
EXPANDING E WITH THIS UPDATE TO INCLUDE THE I-95 AND I-195
CORRIDORS AS LATEST MESOSCALE GUIDANCE FOCUS A BAND WITH THE LLJ
ACROSS THESE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON WHICH MAY ENHANCE THE THREAT FOR
URBAN/STREAM FLOODING. FOR MORE ON THE HYDRO IMPACTS...SEE THE
DISCUSSION BELOW.

WINDS...
AS MENTIONED IN THE NEAR TERM SECTION ABOVE...WILL BE CONTINUING
WITH A WIND ADVISORY ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE REGION THROUGH
MIDNIGHT FOR THE LONG-FUSED THREAT OF STRONG WINDS DUE TO DIURNAL
MIXING. MODELS ARE LIKELY OVERDOING THE INVERSION AS THEY ARE
INITIALIZING TOO COLD THIS MORNING. ALSO...SHOULD ANY CONVECTION
OR FINE LINES DEVELOP AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATER TODAY AND
THIS EVENING...THERE IS THE BETTER CHANCE DUE TO A COMBINATION OF
PRECIP-DRAG AND BETTER LOCALIZED MIXING WHICH MAY ALLOW MORE OF
THE 70-80 KT H92 JET TO BE REALIZED. THIS MAY REQUIRE EXPANSION OF
THE WIND ADVISORY FURTHER W AS THE LLJ ARRIVES THERE THIS
AFTERNOON...THE UPGRADE TO A HIGH WIND WARNING...OR MORE SHORT-
FUSED IF THE CONVECTION IS REALIZED. THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED
TODAY.

WINTRY MIX/FLASH FREEZE POTENTIAL...
THE BAND OF RAIN WILL MOVE E OF THE REGION ALONG WITH THE COLD
FRONT AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TOMORROW.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THIS FRONT...COLD AIR WILL BE
RAPIDLY MOVING IN FROM THE SFC TO MID LVLS DURING THIS TIME.
THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF A CHANGE OVER TO A PERIOD OF
SLEET/SNOW FROM W TO E WITH EVEN THE LOW END POTENTIAL OF SOME
ACCUMULATION IN THE W AND N OF THE ROUTE 2 CORRIDOR. THIS WILL
COMBINE WITH A RAPID TEMPERATURE DROP TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING ON
WET ROADWAYS LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SLIPPERY CONDITIONS
LEADING INTO THE WED MORNING COMMUTE. THE KEY WILL BE THE RACE
BETWEEN THE COLD AND THE DRIER AIR EXACTLY HOW MUCH SNOW
FALLS/ACCUMS...BUT THERE IS THE LOW END CHANCE OF A LIGHT COATING
TO AN INCH IN SOME SPOTS IN THE EXTREME W AND HIGHER TERRAIN AS
GUIDANCE HAS ONLY INCREASED BOTH THE DEPTH AND SPEED WITH WHICH
THE COLD AIR COMES IN BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION ACTUALLY ENDS.

COASTAL FLOODING...
SEE BELOW FOR MORE INFORMATION...BUT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY LEAD TO SOME POCKETS OF
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AT SOUTH COASTAL LOCATIONS WITH THE HIGH
TIDE LATE THIS EVENING /AROUND 9-10 PM/.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY BUT UNSEASONABLY CHILLY WED/WED NIGHT
* DRY THU INTO FRI AFTERNOON - CHILLY COAST/MILDER AFTERNOON/S INLAND
* A PERIOD OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT BUT LOW CONFIDENCE
* NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY...

AN UNSEASONABLY CHILLY AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO WORK INTO THE REGION
AS LARGE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.  ANY LEFT OVER
PRECIPITATION SHOULD HAVE EXITED THE CAPE/ISLANDS BY EARLY TO MID
MORNING WED...AS THE COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE. NORTHWEST
WINDS MAY CONTINUE TO GUST BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH DURING THE
MORNING...BUT WILL DIMINISH SOME DURING THE AFTERNOON.  ANOMALOUS
850 MB TEMPS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BETWEEN -6C AND -10C ARE
EXPECTED.  HOWEVER...PLENTY OF STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE WILL OFFSET
THIS TO SOME DEGREE.  ALL IN ALL...MUCH OF THE REGION SHOULD SEE
HIGHS RECOVER WELL INTO THE 40S DURING THE AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL RESULT IN AN UNSEASONABLY COLD NIGHT.
WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS DIMINISHING...THE NORMALLY COLDER
OUTLYING LOCATIONS OF SOUTHWEST NH/NORTHWEST MA WILL PROBABLY SEE
LOWS FALL INTO THE UPPER TEENS.  THE REST OF THE REGION SHOULD SEE
LOW TEMPS FALL INTO THE 20S...TO THE LOWER 30S.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL GENERATE EAST
TO NORTHEAST WINDS AT THE SURFACE.  WHILE DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL
THU INTO FRI AFTERNOON...THE ONSHORE COMPONENT TO THE WIND SHOULD
HOLD HIGH TEMPS IN THE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN MA COAST BOTH
DAYS.  FURTHER INLAND...ENOUGH HEATING SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH
WELL UP INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60 ACROSS THE LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY.
WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG PATCHES THU
NIGHT INTO FRI ALONG THE COAST.  THIS WOULD BE A RESULT OF AN
INCREASING MOIST ONSHORE FLOW.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...

A COUPLE WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY PASS NEAR OR
SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK.  A LOT OF MODEL UNCERTAINTY ON THE
TIMING AND EXACT TRACKS OF THESE WEAK WAVES.  HOWEVER...THEY WILL
RESULT IN A CHANCE FOR A PERIOD OR TWO OF RAIN SHOWERS FRI NIGHT
AND/OR SAT. WHILE A PERIOD OF SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
EVERYWHERE...HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN A PERIOD OF WET WEATHER WILL BE
ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN.  TEMPS LIKELY REMAIN AT LEAST A BIT BELOW
NORMAL.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.  MUCH OF THIS TIME MAY TURN OUT DRY UNTIL
LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT...WHEN THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES WITH
THE RISK FOR RAIN SHOWERS.  TEMPS WILL LIKELY AVERAGE NEAR OR BELOW
NORMAL WITH THE TENDENCY FOR UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IN THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN OVERALL TRENDS...HAVE LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING IN TAFS.

MIX OF MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE INTO MID MORNING AS LONG AS WINDS REMAIN 10-20 KT WITH
GUSTS 20+. IF THEY DROP...A BRIEF PERIOD OF FOG WITH IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...HAVE FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE WINDS
REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN MAINLY MAINLY MVFR DUE TO CIGS...EVEN
IN SOME -SHRA ACROSS ERN CT/RI AND SE MASS.

THE GENERAL TREND WILL BE TOWARD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
DAY IN A MIX OF RAIN AND FOG AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOW PROBABILITY OF SOME THUNDER
ACCOMPANYING SOME OF THE RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
WELL. OVERNIGHT...RAIN MAY BRIEFLY TRANSITION TO A MIX OF
SNOW/SLEET BEFORE ENDING FROM W TO E. ACCUMULATIONS OF ANY WINTRY
PRECIP WOULD BE LIGHT. A TREND TOWARD VFR IS EXPECTED DURING THE
MORNING HOURS.

OTHERWISE...STRONG S-SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE DAY
TODAY...WITH GUSTS ONCE AGAIN 30-40 KT POSSIBLE AT TIMES. LLWS
WILL BE AN ISSUE AS WELL...40-50 KT THROUGH MORNING...WITH 50+ KT
POSSIBLE OFF THE DECK DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS
RAPIDLY SHIFT TO THE W-NW WITH THE COLD AIR TONIGHT...BUT GUSTS
REMAIN ELEVATED AT LEAST 20-30 KT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TRENDS...LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN TAFS.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TRENDS...LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN TAFS.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 KNOTS WED MORNING SHOULD DIMINISH
SOME BY WED AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY BY WED EVENING.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  A
PERIOD OF MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE IN SOME LOW CLOUDS/FOG
PATCHES AND A ROUND OR TWO OF RAIN SHOWERS.  TIMING AND CONFIDENCE
IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN...BUT BEST CHANCE OF THE LOWER CONDITIONS WILL
BE ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

S-SW WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY SUCH THAT GALE
FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY BY THIS AFTERNOON...CONTINUING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. GALE WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THIS THREAT. THESE
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE W-NW EARLY WED MORNING BUT CONTINUE WITH
GALE FORCE GUSTS UNTIL THEY SUBSIDE BY MID MORNING WED.

SOME HEAVY RAIN/FOG AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WELL.

SEAS INCREASE TO 10-12 FT.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 KNOTS IN
THE MORNING SHOULD LOWER TO SCA LEVELS BY AFTERNOON.  SEAS ACROSS
THE OPEN WATERS WILL REMAIN ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS GIVEN PLENTY OF
LEFT OVER SOUTHERLY SWELL.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL RESULT IN NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 20
TO 25 KNOTS MUCH OF THE TIME.  IN ADDITION...SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER-
WATERS WILL LIKELY REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  POTENTIAL FOR NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS
OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND MARGINAL SCA SEAS CONTINUES.  HOWEVER...EXACT
WIND SPEEDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS WILL DEPEND ON THE TRACK OF A COUPLE
WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD CONTINUES THE CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY. THIS IS DUE TO
THE EXPECTATION THAT SWOLLEN RIVER CONDITIONS AS A RESULT OF
UPSTREAM SNOWMELT COMBINING WITH THE BASIN AVERAGE 1.0-1.5 INCHES
OF RAINFALL ANTICIPATED INTO TONIGHT MAY RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING
OF MAINSTEM RIVERS AND ADJOINING CREEKS AND STREAMS. THERE IS ALSO
THE POTENTIAL FOR URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING THROUGHOUT THE
WATCH AREA.

THIS WATCH HAS BEEN EXPANDED E TO INCLUDE ERN MA AND RI AS WELL
HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT A BAND OF 1.5 OR MORE INCHES IN A SHORT TIME
MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING AS WELL AS SOME
MINOR FLOODING IN FLASHIER RIVERS/STREAMS. THIS THREAT IS
EXACERBATED IN THE MORE DENSE URBAN CORE ALONG AND AROUND THE I-95
AND I-195 CORRIDORS...ESPECIALLY IF SOME CONVECTIVE HEAVY RAIN
OCCURS...SOMETHING LATEST MESOSCALE GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT IN
THESE AREAS FURTHER E.

FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER FOR HARTFORD
AND MIDDLE HADDAM. HOWEVER CURRENT PROJECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS
SUGGEST OTHER POINTS ALONG THE RIVER MAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
REACH MINOR FLOOD WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THOSE WITH
INTERESTS ALONG LOWER REACHES OF CT RIVER SHOULD PAY ATTENTION TO
THE LATEST FORECASTS AND CURRENT WATER LEVELS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A CONTINUATION OF STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS...GUSTING 30-40 MPH
OVER THE WATERS /HIGHER NEAR SHORE/ A POTENTIAL SURGE OF 1.5 FEET
OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER IS POSSIBLE ALONG S COASTAL LOCATIONS WITH THE
LATE EVENING HIGH TIDE /9-10 PM LOCAL/. THIS TIDE IS HIGHER THAN
MOST OF LATE...BUT IS NOT NECESSARILY ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH.
HOWEVER...WITH THE ADDED SURGE AND OFFSHORE WAVE ACTION THERE IS
THE LOW PROBABILITY OF SOME SPLASHOVER OR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
WITH THIS HIGH TIDE. CURRENTLY THE FORECAST TIDE IS ABOUT 5.4 FT
AT THE FOX POINT GAUGE IN PROVIDENCE AS A REFERENCE.

THERE IS STILL NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME TO WARRANT THE
ISSUANCE OF A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT / ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTH-
COAST. WILL EVALUATE WITH LATER FORECASTS AND HIGHLIGHT IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     MORNING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     MORNING FOR MAZ002>021-026.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR
     MAZ004>007-012>024-026.
NH...FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     MORNING FOR NHZ011-012-015.
RI...FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     MORNING FOR RIZ001>007.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR
     RIZ001>008.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR ANZ232-233-235-237-250-254>256.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ230-231-234-236-
     251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...FRANK/DOODY
MARINE...FRANK/DOODY
HYDROLOGY...STAFF
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...STAFF




000
FXUS61 KALY 150601
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
201 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. THIS
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY WITH PERIODS OF RAIN...WHICH
COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES. IT WILL TURN DRAMATICALLY COLDER BEHIND THE
FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THURSDAY THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
     RENSSELAER COUNTY HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE FLOOD WATCH DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING IN TROY AS RAIN AND SNOW MELT BUILDS
DOWNSTREAM THROUGH THE HUDSON RIVER TOMORROW AND WEDNESDAY...

AS OF 1245 AM EDT...RADARS INDICATED SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
IN OUR NORTHWESTERN AREAS...GENERALLY LIGHT WITH A FEW ELEMENTS OF
MODERATE RAINFALL. THESE ARE ARE WELL AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT
WHICH WAS WORKING INTO WESTERN NEW YORK STATE AT THIS TIME.

INITIALLY...THESE SHOWERS WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO WORK MUCH FURTHER
EAST DUE TO A WAVE LIKELY FORMING ALONG THE FRONT. HOWEVER...BROAD
ASCENT AND MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL INCREASE LIGHT SHOWERS
ACROSS MOST OF OUR AREA BY DAWN.

TEMPERATURES WERE INCREDIBLY MILD ONCE MORE...STILL WELL INTO THE
60S ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREAS...AND EVEN 50S NORTH. THESE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW FALL DURING THE OVERNIGHT. LEFT LOW
TEMPERATURES ALONE.

RELATIVELY STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
RAIN WILL HELP TEMPERATURES FALL TOWARD WET BULBS...BUT STILL ONLY
INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STRONG UPPER IMPULSE IN THE CENTRAL U.S. CATCHES UP WITH THE FRONT
CURRENTLY FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE OH/TN VALLEY
AND RACES EASTWARD THROUGH TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT.
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY OVER OUR REGION NOW SHOULD DECREASE AS
WIDESPREAD RAIN DEVELOPS. HOWEVER...SOME INSTABILITY ROOTED IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER COULD SUPPORT CONVECTION ALONG THE COLD
FRONT...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE EXTREME FORCING MECHANISMS
EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE. THE BOUNDARY LAYER JET ENERGY SHOULD
RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN...ESPECIALLY AS THE COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS
THE HUDSON RIVER INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT
OF AROUND 20C IN A DISTANCE OF LESS THAN 200 MILES IS QUITE
EXTREME AND QUITE UNUSUAL.

THE RAPID EASTWARD MOVEMENT SHOULD SUPPORT SOME SHALLOW ENHANCED
LINE OF CONVECTION...MAYBE WITHOUT THUNDER...BUT SOME VERY GUSTY
WINDS...MAYBE EVEN SOME ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE IN HIGHER
TERRAIN FROM THE TACONICS THROUGH WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. GRADIENT
SOUTHERLY WINDS COULD APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS IN THE SOUTHERN
GREEN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN BERKSHIRES...BUT MORE LIKELY THE
POTENTIALLY ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS COULD BE MORE BRIEF...
ASSOCIATED WITH SOME SHALLOW CONVECTION SO NO ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME. STILL SUGGESTING 40 TO 45 MPH GUSTS IN SOME AREAS TOMORROW.

TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN MOST
AREAS...THEN DROP RAPIDLY IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE COLD AIR SPREADS
EAST. THERE SHOULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH LINGERING PRECIPITATION AND THE COLD AIR IN PLACE SO
THAT THERE COULD BE A BRIEF MIX TO SLEET AND EVENTUALLY SOME SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY IN MOST AREAS BEFORE ENDING BY MIDNIGHT. HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...EASTERN CATSKILLS...SOUTHERN
GREEN MOUNTAINS AND BERKSHIRES COULD SEE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW.
EVEN VALLEY AREAS COULD SEE A LIGHT DUSTING OF SLEET AND SNOW. LOW
TEMPERATURES BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE IN THE 20S...WITH A
FEW TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS. IT SHOULD BE QUITE BREEZY TUESDAY
NIGHT AS WELL.

ON WEDNESDAY...IT SHOULD BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY BUT STILL
BREEZY WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION. STILL...WITH STRONG SUN...HIGHS
SHOULD GET SOLIDLY INTO THE 40S TO NEAR 50...BUT A LITTLE COOLER
IN HIGHER TERRAIN. WINDS EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERS ITSELF OVER THE REGION AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL ONCE
AGAIN INTO THE 20S...TEENS IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. WARM
ADVECTION BEGINS THURSDAY AND WITH SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH THE 50S...AROUND 50 NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST SHOULD START OUT WITH
GENERALLY PLEASANT CONDITIONS...WITH NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY INCREASES AS
WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND...AS THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION OF AN UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES OR OHIO VALLEY REGION
REACHING THE AREA...ALONG WITH SOME POSSIBLE INFLUX OF SOME
GULF/ATLANTIC MOISTURE...CREATING CLOUDS AND SOME RAIN SHOWERS.
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS COULD LINGER INTO SUNDAY BEFORE
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT BY MONDAY.

HERE ARE SOME SPECIFICS...

THU NT-FRI...A LOW LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD EXTEND INTO
THE REGION FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...KEEPING OUR REGION
GENERALLY DRY...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY SKIES. HOWEVER...THERE IS
SOME POSSIBILITY THAT LOW CLOUDS BEGIN TO DEVELOP OR EXPAND INTO AT
LEAST SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE REGION BY LATE FRI OR FRI NT AS THE
ATLANTIC FETCH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR
SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH FRI MAX TEMPS REACHING AROUND OR SLIGHTLY
OVER 60 IN THE VALLEYS...WITH 50S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. THU NT/FRI
AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 20S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...AND LOWER
30S WITHIN VALLEY AREAS.

FRI NT-SUN...MOST MODELS AND ENSEMBLE SUITES SUGGEST THAT A
SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION BRINGS SOMEWHAT
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE REGION...ESP ON SAT...WITH SOME RAIN
SHOWERS. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ALSO IS EXPECTED TO PASS OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. THESE TWO DISTURBANCES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
UNPHASED AT THIS TIME. IN ADDITION...THE SOUTHERN DISTURBANCE MAY
LIMIT THE MOISTURE AVAILABILITY TO THE NORTHERN SYSTEM.
NEVERTHELESS...WILL KEEP CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS FOR SAT...TAPERING TO
MAINLY SLIGHT CHC/LOW CHC FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE BULK OF UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE SHIFTS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR...OR A BIT BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS SAT-SUN
DUE TO THE EXPECTATION FOR LIMITED SUNSHINE...WITH MAXES MAINLY IN
THE 50S...AND OVERNIGHT MINS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. SLIGHTLY
MILDER BY MONDAY...WITH MAX TEMPS REACHING AROUND 60 IN VALLEYS AND
50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /126Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT AND
TUESDAY...PASSING ACROSS THE TAF SITES TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN
SHOWERS FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE
SPOTTY AND HAVE MAINLY INDICATED VCSH AT THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF TAF
SITES...BUT A STRATUS DECK SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION BEFORE
SUNRISE AND HAVE INDICATED MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS AT THE
TAF SITES AFTER 08-09Z.

FROM MID MORNING ON EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/RAIN WITH MAINLY IFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL THE TAF SITES INTO MONDAY EVENING. DURING THE
EVENING IT WILL LIKELY GET COLD ENOUGH FOR A WINTRY MIX OF PCPN AT
KGFL/KALB/KPSF (GENERALLY AFT 16/01Z). AT KPOU THE STEADY PCPN
SHOULD END BEFORE IT GETS COLD ENOUGH FOR MIXED PCPN. AFTER ABOUT
04-05Z EXPECT JUST FLURRIES AT THE TAF SITES WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO MVFR.

STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE COLD FRONT PASSES
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS OF 12-18 KTS AND GUSTS OF 20 TO 27
KTS FORECAST. THERE SHOULD BE A SLIGHT DECREASE IN THE WINDS EARLY
THIS MORNING (AROUND SUNRISE). BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THE WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST OR NORTHWEST AND REMAIN STRONG. WIND GUSTS COULD
EXCEED 30 KTS...ESPECIALLY AT KALB.

OUTLOOK...
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT.WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 30.0
DEFINITE SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. THIS
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY WITH PERIODS OF RAIN...WHICH
COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES. IT WILL TURN DRAMATICALLY COLDER BEHIND
THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THURSDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER
EXPECTED.

TONIGHT...CLOUDS INCREASE AND SO DO SHOWERS. A SOAKING RAIN IS
VERY LIKELY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ALL AREAS SEEING WELL OVER
A QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL. THE RAIN SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS IN
HIGHER TERRAIN.

MUCH COLDER WEATHER WILL BE USHERED IN BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT
TUESDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY...THE SUNSHINE SHOULD RETURN BUT IT WILL BE
COLD AND BRISK.

THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK LOOKS DRY WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND
MODERATING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR THE ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY/LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA
REGION...SOUTHERN VERMONT AND THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES.

OUR NORTHERN AREAS ARE STILL DEALING WITH SNOWMELT WHICH HAS ALREADY
SWELLED MANY OF THE RIVERS IN THE REGION. IT LOOKS AS IF 1-2+ INCHES
OF RAINFALL WILL FALL STARTING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE
HEAVIEST OF THE RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE FROM MIDDAY TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY EVENING AS THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
PRECIPITATION COULD LINGER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND END UP AS A
LITTLE SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

ALL AREAS COULD SEE PONDING OF WATER IN URBAN AREAS AND AREAS OF POOR
DRAINAGE.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     MORNING FOR NYZ032-033-038>043-050-053-054-082>084.
MA...FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     MORNING FOR MAZ001.
VT...FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/NAS
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/KL/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...SND/NAS













000
FXUS61 KOKX 150546
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
146 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY
AND THEN MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY...THEN REMAINS NORTH OF THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WEAKENS
AND MOVES EAST FRIDAY...ALLOWING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO APPROACH
FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS WEEKEND. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
PRECIPITATION A LITTLE SLOWER TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AS UPPER
TROUGH REMAINS WELL TO THE WEST. HOWEVER TIMING STILL BRING RAIN
INTO THE WESTERN SECTIONS BY MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE WITH
LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS. FOG WAS JUST BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP...MAINLY ALONG THE COAST. ALSO UPDATED TEMPERATURES AND
DEW POINTS FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS.

DEEP TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS PUSHES INTO THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT...WHILE ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD FRONT WITH
PRIMARY LOW PUSHES INTO WESTERN NY/PA OVERNIGHT. DEEP LAYERED
MOISTURE INCREASES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUE MORNING AS INCREASING
FORCING/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.

PERSISTENT MOIST ONSHORE FLOW UNDER A STRONG INVERSION HAS LED TO
THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS. PATTERN FOR ADVECTION FOG AND DRIZZLE
WILL INCREASE ALONG COASTAL AREAS OF CT/LI OVERNIGHT...BUT A
STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW LEAVES SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW DENSE FOG
WILL BECOME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE STRONG AND DEEP NEUTRALLY
TILTED UPPER TROUGH TROUGH SLIDING FROM THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY TO APPALACHIANS ON TUESDAY...AND THEN NEGATIVELY TILTING
THROUGH THE NE TUESDAY NIGHT. ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
APPROACHING THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON AND CROSSING IN THE
EVENING.

INCREASING CHANCE FOR RAIN TUESDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON
WITH INCREASING LIFT AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. IN ADDITION...WITH A 65 TO 75 KT LOW LEVEL
JET AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE IN THE
MORNING INTO AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH
LIKELY...HIGHEST COAST...BUT AN INVERSION SHOULD LIMIT GUSTS
MAINLY INTO THE 30S. ANY HEAVY RAIN MAY HAVE ENOUGH DOWNWARD
MOMENTUM TO OVERCOME THE INVERSION AND BRING A HIGHER FRACTION OF
THE LOW LEVEL JET TO THE SURFACE.

WITH GULF MOISTURE TAP...INCREASING FORCING/MOISTURE  CONVERGENCE
MID MORNING INTO AFTERNOON...AND WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY...AREAS
OF HEAVY RAIN AND EMBEDDED CONVECTION ARE POSSIBLE. SEE HYDROLOGY
SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS ON RAINFALL AND ASSOCIATED IMPACTS.

MAIN CONCERN FOR TUE AFT/EVE IS THAT MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT IN SIGNALING A SYNOPTICALLY FORCED SQUALL LINE
TRAVERSING THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING...WHICH
WOULD HAVE POTENTIAL TO BRING DOWN GUSTS OF 50+ MPH. THIS WILL
HAVE TO BE HANDLED BY SHORT FUSE ADVISORY/WARNING.

STRONG COLD ADVECTION EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT TUE
EVENING. WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH AND GUSTS 35 TO 45 MPH LIKELY TUESDAY
NIGHT IN ITS WAKE. ADDITIONALLY...MODELS CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARDS A
TRANSITION TO WINTRY PRECIP IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT BEFORE
ENDING...PARTICULARLY ACROSS NW ZONES. WITH SHORTWAVE INSTABILITY
COMING THROUGH...A BRIEF BURST OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION TUE EVENING N&W OF NYC. THIS POSES POTENTIAL FOR
SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION...AND WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE
20S SOME ICY ROAD CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.

LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO VERY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH THE GROWING FOR THE ENTIRE
COASTAL AREAS AND PORTIONS OF INTERIOR NE NJ/LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY...THERE IS POTENTIAL THAT FREEZE CONDITIONS COULD BE MET FOR
MUCH OF THIS AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE BIG STORY DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE TEMPERATURES...AS THEY
WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...AND ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING HOW WARM IT HAS BEEN ACROSS THE AREA RECENTLY. WEDNESDAY
WILL FEATURE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BUILDS IN. 850 TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL
RANGE FROM AROUND -8C INLAND...TO -3C TO -6C ACROSS LONG ISLAND.
THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH LOWER 50S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NYC METRO
AREA.

THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS WEST OF THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...AND THEN TRACK TO THE NORTH AND EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW A NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. WINDS INCREASE A
BIT OVERNIGHT FOR EASTERN SECTIONS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO THE HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENING OVER NEW
ENGLAND. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY OF
THE WEEK. WITH WINDS INCREASING OVERNIGHT...THEY WILL NOT BE AS COLD
AS THEY COULD POTENTIALLY BE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OUTLYING AREAS.
WIDESPREAD LOWS BELOW FREEZING ARE EXPECTED ACROSS AREAS WELL
INLAND. WHEREAS TEMPERATURES IN MIDDLE 30S ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NYC
METRO AND COASTAL SECTIONS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME ISOLATED SPOTS
MAY DIP TO FREEZING IN THESE AREAS. CONTINUED TO MENTION PATCHY
FROST ACROSS ACROSS CERTAIN AREAS. THERE ARE SOME AREAS OF EASTERN
LONG ISLAND THAT ARE FORECAST TO DROP BELOW FREEZING...BUT DID NOT
MENTION FROST HERE AS WINDS OVERNIGHT PICK UP A BIT.

QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY PUSH TO THE NORTHEAST EAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY MEAN A WARMING TREND AFTER WEDNESDAY. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE LOW APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE
WEST FRIDAY NIGHT. ALSO...WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFFSHORE AND
HEAD NORTHEAST. 00Z ECMWF AND TO SOME EXTENT...THE 12Z GFS TRY TO
PHASE THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS. IN BOTH CASES...THE
RESULTING COASTAL ARE TOO FAR OFFSHORE...AND ONLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IS IN THE FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL
FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VARYING CONDITIONS FOR THE PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS WITH STRONG SLY FLOW PERSISTING. SLIGHT LULL
THIS MORNING WITH WINDS 8-12 KTS...WITH WINDS INCREASING GREATLY
BY 10Z...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-30 KTS FOR THE DAY. TIMING OF FRONTAL
PASSAGE SOMEWHERE 21-00Z...WITH WINDS SHIFTING S-SW-NW DURING THIS
TIME. WINDS WILL TAPER OFF SLIGHTLY WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...THEN INCREASE AGAIN AS THE WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW.

LLWS ISSUES PERSISTING THROUGH LATE AFTN...WITH GENERALLY 50-60
KTS BETWEEN 1-2KFT.

PCPN BEGINS TO PUSH IN BETWEEN 09-12Z...WITH THE HEAVIEST PCPN
LOOKING TO MOVE IN AFTER 15Z. COULD SEE A PERIOD OF +SHRA OR EVEN
AN ISO TSTM THIS AFTN RIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT CONFIDENCE
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. COLD AIR RUSHING IN BEHIND THE
FRONT COULD ALSO RESULT IN LIGHT SNOW AT KSWF. THINKING THE END
TIME OF THE PCPN SHOULD OCCUR EVERYWHERE ELSE BEFORE THE COLDER
AIR MOVES IN.

DEVELOPING FOG/STRATUS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL DROP CIGS/VIS TO
IFR OR LOWER. WILL SEE A BRIEF IMPROVEMENT WITH LIGHT PCPN MOVING
IN...THEN DROPPING DOWN AGAIN AFTER 15Z WITH THE HEAVIER RAIN.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT...NW-N WIND G 35-40KT POSSIBLE.
.WEDNESDAY...VFR. N WIND G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.THURSDAY...VFR. E WIND G 20-25KT POSSIBLE.
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.SATURDAY...LOW CHANCE OF -SHRA...WITH MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IF
-SHRA OCCURS.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH TUE ON THE HARBOR BAYS AND SOUND.
THE SCA MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A GALE WARNING FOR TUE AFTERNOON.

POTENTIAL FOR FOG ON THE WATERS INCREASES TONIGHT AND CONTINUES INTO
TUESDAY. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED WITH EXPECTATION OF
VSBY TO DROP BELOW 1 NM OVERNIGHT WITH CONTINUED MOIST FLOW.

SCA GUST ON THE NEARSHORE WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW SCA LATE
THIS EVENING AS MIXING DECREASES...BUT SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MARGINAL GUSTS AND
SEAS.

GALES POSSIBLE TUESDAY FOR OCEAN WATERS AND PERHAPS ALL WATERS AS
STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES...BUT BETTER CHANCE WILL BE IN WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION. HAVE
HELD OFF ON GALE WARNING WITH MARGINAL NATURE OF GALES ON TUESDAY.

WAVES WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 5 FT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. WIND
GUSTS ABOVE 25 KT ON WEDNESDAY...BUT DIMINISHING THROUGHOUT THE
DAY AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA...COMING BELOW 25
KT BY THE AFTERNOON. WINDS INCREASE TO ABOVE 25 KT AGAIN ON
THURSDAY...BUT DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT...AND FOR THE MOST
PART...SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 25 KT THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
QPF OF 1 TO 2 INCHES...NEARLY ALL RAIN...EXPECTED FROM LATE TONIGHT
INTO TUE NIGHT...WITH POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER END LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3
INCHES.

MODERATE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS AND FLASHY SMALL STREAMS. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF FLASH
FLOODING ACROSS NE NJ WITH ANY TRAINING OF HEAVY RAIN/EMBEDDED
CONVECTION AS 1 HR FFG IS ONLY AROUND 3/4 OF AN INCH.

NOTE...MINOR FLOODING CONTINUE ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER.
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY CAUSE WATER LEVELS TO
CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE
FLOOD LEVEL TO BE REACHED. MONITOR THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS FROM
NWS TAUNTON MA.

THEREAFTER...NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345.
     GALE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR ANZ330-
     335-338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-
     335-338-340-345.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.
     GALE WATCH FROM 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT
     FOR ANZ350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ350-
     353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NV
NEAR TERM...JMC/NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...SEARS
MARINE...JMC/JP/NV
HYDROLOGY...JP/NV







000
FXUS61 KBOX 150544
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
144 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING WITH IT A SOAKING RAIN FOR
TUESDAY EXITING SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY. DRIER AND MUCH
COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES MODERATING BY FRIDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY
OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
1 AM UPDATE...
BANDS OF SHOWERS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ON THE LEADING EDGE OF
STRONG LLJ ENERGY AND WHERE MOISTURE HAS INCREASED ACROSS SE MA
AND RI. ELSEWHERE DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH LITTLE IF ANY FOG
THANKS TO CONTINUED MIXING ACROSS THE REGION. IT WILL LIKELY TAKE
UNTIL THE LLJ REACHES WRN AREAS FOR RAINFALL TO BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD. ADJUSTED TOWARD LATEST NAM/SREF WHICH ARE HANDLING
EARLY MORNING -SHRA AND OTHER RAIN TO THE W.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...

INCREASING S WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. BLUSTERY AT
THE SURFACE BUT BELOW WIND-ADV CRITERIA WITH 25 TO 30 MPH GUSTS AT
MOST. WILL SEE THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG/DRIZZLE AS MOISTURE
CONVERGES ALONG THE NOSE OF A DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL-JET POOLING
BENEATH A DRY-AIR INVERSION ALOFT AND UNDERGOING WEAK ISENTROPIC
ASCENT MAINLY ALONG THE S-COAST. BULK OF THE RAIN STAYS WEST ALONG
WITH THE COLD FRONT.

BUT SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER OUTCOMES THIS EVENING WILL BE
DENSE FOG OR LOW CLOUDS. WITH HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR TRANSPOSED OVER
COLDER OCEAN WATERS WOULD EXPECT DENSE FOG ALONG THE S-COAST...BUT
WITH STRONG S WINDS...MECHANICAL MIXING MAY RESULT IN VERY LOW
STRATUS. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY ISSUANCE OF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR
NOW...BUT HIGHLIGHT THE THREAT IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TUESDAY...

COLD FRONT SURGES INTO NEW ENGLAND. ANTICIPATING A DISTINCT BAND OF
RAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.

CONTINUED STRONG S LOW-LEVEL-JET AHEAD OF THE FRONT UP TO 80 MPH AT
H925. THOUGH BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING IS LIMITED BY WARMER AIR ALOFT...
AM CONCERNED HEAVIER SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD LEND
TO PRECIP-DRAG OF FASTER WINDS TO THE SURFACE. CONSIDERING FORECAST
WEAK INSTABILITY AND SHEAR-VECTORS ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE FRONT...
ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD CONTAIN AN ISOLATED WIND THREAT.
HAVE APPENDED THE CONVECTIVE THREAT OF GUSTY WINDS TO THE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

TIGHTENING PRES-GRADIENT AND LIMITED BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING SHOULD
ALLOW FOR S WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH POTENTIALLY EXCEEDING WIND ADV
CRITERIA. MUCH LIKE TODAY...GUSTS EXCEEDING 45 MPH WILL BE ISOLATED.
FEEL THE WIND ISSUES CAN BE HANDLED BY SHORT-FUSED PRODUCTS ESP WITH
THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS. WILL NOT ISSUE A WIND ADV WITH THIS
FORECAST.

S-FETCH WILL ADVECT PWATS OF AROUND 1.5-INCHES N ALONG WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN EXCESS OF 50 DEGREES. TWO AREAS OF CONCERN:
POTENTIAL URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AND RIVER/SMALL-STREAM FLOODING ESP
FOR THE CT-RIVER VALLEY...AS WELL AS THE POSSIBILITY OF DENSE FOG
ALONG THE S-COAST WITH HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR OVER- RIDING A COLDER
OCEAN.

WILL HOIST A FLOOD WATCH FOR THE CT-VALLEY ACCORDINGLY. FURTHER
HYDROLOGICAL DISCUSSION CAN BE FOUND LATER IN THE DISCUSSION DOWN
BELOW. AS FOR THE DENSE FOG...WILL MONITOR OVERNIGHT AND UPDATE
HEADLINES CLOSER TOWARDS MORNING AS FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE
AT THIS TIME.

AS FOR COASTAL FLOODING THREATS...PLEASE SEE THE COASTAL FLOODING
PORTION OF THE AFD OUTLINING THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR SPLASHOVER
ALONG THE S-COAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE SHARP COLD FRONT...
MAINLY FOR THE EVENING PERIOD...SO WILL TABLE THE OUTCOMES BEHIND
THE FRONT FOR THE TUESDAY NIGHT DISCUSSION.

TUESDAY NIGHT...

COLD FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHALLOW COLD AIR
POURS IN VIA WESTERLY WINDS BENEATH SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER AIR ALOFT.

WILL SEE THE BOUNDARY-LAYER DESTABILIZE UP TO H9 WITH COLD-AIR
ADVECTION ALLOWING FOR THE MIX-DOWN OF FASTER MOMENTUM AND W-WIND
GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH AT THE SURFACE. WIND ADVISORIES MAY NEED TO BE
CONSIDERED...BUT AGAIN FEEL SUCH WINDS WILL BE BRIEF AND CAN BE
HANDLED WITH SHORT-FUSED PRODUCTS.

STRONG ASCENT PER RRQ AND MAIN SHORT-WAVE THROUGH THE NEGATIVELY
TILTING TROUGH SHOULD RESULT IN PRECIP ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT
WITHIN THE SHALLOW COLD AIR. BUT THIS SHOULD BE BRIEF WITH AN INFLUX
OF DRIER AIR TO THE REAR /POSSIBLY ALSO THE DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT
OFF THE BERKSHIRES WILL PRESENT LIMITATIONS/. WINTRY PRECIP TYPES
WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF NW MA INTO S NH. ACCUMULATIONS IF
ANY WILL BE JUST AROUND A TRACE. DO NOT BELIEVE WINTER WEATHER
HEADLINES ARE NECESSARY.

BIGGER CONCERN IS ON THE FLASH FREEZE POTENTIAL WITH THE IMMEDIATE
INFLUX OF COLDER AIR. COULD SEE POTENTIAL BLACK-ICE IMPACTS FOR THE
WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTE. LOWS FALLING AROUND THE UPPER-20S TO
LOW-30S BY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* QUIET WEATHER BUT MUCH COOLER WED AND THU
* TEMPERATURES START TO MODERATE FRI INTO THE WEEKEND
* UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND

14/12Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN
THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM.  OVER THE WEEKEND...PARTICULARLY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...THERE START TO BE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
THE GFS AND THE ECMWF.  THESE WILL LIKELY HAVE SOME EFFECT ON THE
TIMING OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER...BUT THESE DIFFERENCES WILL BE
RESOLVED OVER TIME.  ACROSS THE BOARD...MOST OF THE MODELS AS WELL
AS THE ENSEMBLES FOCUS ON THE SOUTHERN STREAM DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND
UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD OVER THE WEEKEND.  EXPECT THIS IS THE
LIKELIER SOLUTION GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT...BUT THERE ARE A FEW
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS/MODEL RUNS THAT ARE FOCUSING MORE ON THE NORTHERN
STREAM LOW.  SO THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT PATTERN FOR
NEXT WEEKEND...AS THERE SHOULD AT THIS TIME RANGE.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THERE COULD BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
ALONG THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT THESE SHOULD COME TO AN
END EARLY AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
THE WEATHER SHOULD BE QUIET ASIDE FROM THESE SHOWERS...BUT CHILLY
WITH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OFF THE OCEAN RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES
WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR MID APRIL.

FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES START TO MODERATE FOR MOST LOCATIONS.  HOWEVER
WITH NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS CONTINUING...EXPECT COASTAL
LOCATIONS TO REMAIN CHILLY.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AS STATED ABOVE...THIS IS LIKELY TO BE A
PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AS A PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE CAROLINAS TO NEAR THE 40/70 BENCHMARK.  THE
FIRST IS FORECAST TO MOVE WELL OUTSIDE OF THE BENCHMARK...LIKELY
BRINGING SHOWERS AND MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE EASTERN
PART OF THE REGION SATURDAY.  THE SECOND MOVES CLOSER TO THE
BENCHMARK...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGHOUT
THE REGION MONDAY.  TEMPERATURES MODERATE ENOUGH THROUGH THIS PERIOD
THAT THIS PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL AS RAIN.  THERE REMAINS
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS...AND THUS
THE RAINFALL THAT WILL NEED TO BE IRONED OUT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN OVERALL TRENDS...HAVE LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING IN TAFS.

MIX OF MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE INTO MID MORNING AS LONG AS WINDS REMAIN 10-20 KT WITH
GUSTS 20+. IF THEY DROP...A BRIEF PERIOD OF FOG WITH IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...HAVE FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE WINDS
REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN MAINLY MAINLY MVFR DUE TO CIGS...EVEN
IN SOME -SHRA ACROSS ERN CT/RI AND SE MASS.

THE GENERAL TREND WILL BE TOWARD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
DAY IN A MIX OF RAIN AND FOG AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOW PROBABILITY OF SOME THUNDER
ACCOMPANYING SOME OF THE RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
WELL. OVERNIGHT...RAIN MAY BRIEFLY TRANSITION TO A MIX OF
SNOW/SLEET BEFORE ENDING FROM W TO E. ACCUMULATIONS OF ANY WINTRY
PRECIP WOULD BE LIGHT. A TREND TOWARD VFR IS EXPECTED DURING THE
MORNING HOURS.

OTHERWISE...STRONG S-SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE DAY
TODAY...WITH GUSTS ONCE AGAIN 30-40 KT POSSIBLE AT TIMES. LLWS
WILL BE AN ISSUE AS WELL...40-50 KT THROUGH MORNING...WITH 50+ KT
POSSIBLE OFF THE DECK DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS
RAPIDLY SHIFT TO THE W-NW WITH THE COLD AIR TONIGHT...BUT GUSTS
REMAIN ELEVATED AT LEAST 20-30 KT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TRENDS...LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN TAFS.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TRENDS...LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN TAFS.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST ON WEDNESDAY TO VFR MOST LOCATIONS.
TYPICALLY ON NE WINDS LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP ALONG THE EAST COAST OF MA
INCLUDING KBOS. IFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE EAST COAST ARE THEN
CLIMATOLOGICALLY LIKELY FOR BOTH DAYS.  HOWEVER...MODELS ARE VERY
DRY ON WEDNESDAY...SO THIS MAY NOT OCCUR.  MOISTURE RETURNS THURSDAY
THOUGH.

FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LOW CLOUDS/IFR CONDITIONS MAY
LINGER ALONG THE EAST COAST WITH CONTINUED NE FLOW.  OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.  MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY PARTICULARLY
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA IN RAIN/FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

GALE WARNINGS FOR STRONG S WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT FOR TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...CONTINUING INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS WINDS BACK OUT OF THE WEST WITH PASSAGE OF
THE COLD FRONT REMAINING IN EXCESS OF GALE-FORCE. WAVE HEIGHTS UP
TO 10 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE OUTER WATERS.

ALSO WORTHY OF NOTE...AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT EXPECT WIDESPREAD
RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

AND ALSO BEGINNING TONIGHT...THERE IS ALSO A GREATER POTENTIAL
FOR SEEING DENSE FOG ESP ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WITH VISIBILITIES
DOWN TO A HALF-MILE OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. NORTHWESTERLY GALES SLACKEN AS COLD
FRONT MOVES EAST TOWARDS THE MARITIMES.  WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND THEN THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT.  SEAS
DIMINISH SLOWLY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND BUT WILL
REMAIN ABOVE 5 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS
REMAIN CLOSE TO OR ABOVE SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST ON THE OUTER WATERS.

SATURDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS
MAY INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE WATERS.
MODERATE PROBABILITY OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES BEING NEEDED. IN
ADDITION...VISIBILITIES MAY BE LIMITED IN RAIN/FOG.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY.
THIS IS DUE TO THE EXPECTATION THAT SWOLLEN RIVER CONDITIONS AS A
RESULT OF UPSTREAM SNOWMELT COMBINING WITH THE BASIN AVERAGE 1.5
INCHES OF RAINFALL ANTICIPATED TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF MAINSTEM RIVERS AND ADJOINING CREEKS
AND STREAMS. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR URBAN AND POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING THROUGHOUT THE WATCH AREA.

FLOOD WARNINGS ARE ALREADY IN EFFECT ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER
FOR HARTFORD AND MIDDLE HADDAM. THOSE WITH INTERESTS ALONG LOWER
REACHES OF CT RIVER SHOULD PAY ATTENTION TO THE LATEST FORECASTS
AND CURRENT WATER LEVELS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING 25 TO 35 MPH WILL PRODUCE A STORM-SURGE
OF 1 TO 2 FEET ALONG THE SOUTH-COAST PRIOR TO THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY. COMBINED WITH TUESDAY
EVENINGS HIGH TIDE...AND THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SPLASHOVER
AND MINOR COASTAL FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS AND ROADWAYS ALONG
THE SOUTH-COAST.

THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME TO WARRANT THE
ISSUANCE OF A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT / ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTH-
COAST. WILL EVALUATE WITH LATER FORECASTS AND HIGHLIGHT IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     MORNING FOR CTZ002-003.
MA...FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     MORNING FOR MAZ002>004-008>011-026.
NH...FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     MORNING FOR NHZ011-012-015.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR ANZ232-233-235-237-250-254>256.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ230-231-234-236-
     251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...DOODY/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...DOODY/RLG
MARINE...RLG/SIPPRELL
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KALY 150446
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1245 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. THIS
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY WITH PERIODS OF RAIN...WHICH
COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES. IT WILL TURN DRAMATICALLY COLDER BEHIND THE
FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THURSDAY THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
     RENSSELAER COUNTY HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE FLOOD WATCH DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING IN TROY AS RAIN AND SNOW MELT BUILDS
DOWNSTREAM THROUGH THE HUDSON RIVER TOMORROW AND WEDNESDAY...

AS OF 1245 AM EDT...RADARS INDICATED SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
IN OUR NORTHWESTERN AREAS...GENERALLY LIGHT WITH A FEW ELEMENTS OF
MODERATE RAINFALL. THESE ARE ARE WELL AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT
WHICH WAS WORKING INTO WESTERN NEW YORK STATE AT THIS TIME.

INITIALLY...THESE SHOWERS WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO WORK MUCH FURTHER
EAST DUE TO A WAVE LIKELY FORMING ALONG THE FRONT. HOWEVER...BROAD
ASCENT AND MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL INCREASE LIGHT SHOWERS
ACROSS MOST OF OUR AREA BY DAWN.

TEMPERATURES WERE INCREDIBLY MILD ONCE MORE...STILL WELL INTO THE
60S ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREAS...AND EVEN 50S NORTH. THESE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW FALL DURING THE OVERNIGHT. LEFT LOW
TEMPERATURES ALONE.

RELATIVELY STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
RAIN WILL HELP TEMPERATURES FALL TOWARD WET BULBS...BUT STILL ONLY
INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STRONG UPPER IMPULSE IN THE CENTRAL U.S. CATCHES UP WITH THE FRONT
CURRENTLY FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE OH/TN VALLEY
AND RACES EASTWARD THROUGH TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT.
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY OVER OUR REGION NOW SHOULD DECREASE AS
WIDESPREAD RAIN DEVELOPS. HOWEVER...SOME INSTABILITY ROOTED IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER COULD SUPPORT CONVECTION ALONG THE COLD
FRONT...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE EXTREME FORCING MECHANISMS
EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE. THE BOUNDARY LAYER JET ENERGY SHOULD
RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN...ESPECIALLY AS THE COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS
THE HUDSON RIVER INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT
OF AROUND 20C IN A DISTANCE OF LESS THAN 200 MILES IS QUITE
EXTREME AND QUITE UNUSUAL.

THE RAPID EASTWARD MOVEMENT SHOULD SUPPORT SOME SHALLOW ENHANCED
LINE OF CONVECTION...MAYBE WITHOUT THUNDER...BUT SOME VERY GUSTY
WINDS...MAYBE EVEN SOME ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE IN HIGHER
TERRAIN FROM THE TACONICS THROUGH WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. GRADIENT
SOUTHERLY WINDS COULD APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS IN THE SOUTHERN
GREEN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN BERKSHIRES...BUT MORE LIKELY THE
POTENTIALLY ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS COULD BE MORE BRIEF...
ASSOCIATED WITH SOME SHALLOW CONVECTION SO NO ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME. STILL SUGGESTING 40 TO 45 MPH GUSTS IN SOME AREAS TOMORROW.

TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN MOST
AREAS...THEN DROP RAPIDLY IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE COLD AIR SPREADS
EAST. THERE SHOULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH LINGERING PRECIPITATION AND THE COLD AIR IN PLACE SO
THAT THERE COULD BE A BRIEF MIX TO SLEET AND EVENTUALLY SOME SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY IN MOST AREAS BEFORE ENDING BY MIDNIGHT. HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...EASTERN CATSKILLS...SOUTHERN
GREEN MOUNTAINS AND BERKSHIRES COULD SEE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW.
EVEN VALLEY AREAS COULD SEE A LIGHT DUSTING OF SLEET AND SNOW. LOW
TEMPERATURES BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE IN THE 20S...WITH A
FEW TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS. IT SHOULD BE QUITE BREEZY TUESDAY
NIGHT AS WELL.

ON WEDNESDAY...IT SHOULD BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY BUT STILL
BREEZY WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION. STILL...WITH STRONG SUN...HIGHS
SHOULD GET SOLIDLY INTO THE 40S TO NEAR 50...BUT A LITTLE COOLER
IN HIGHER TERRAIN. WINDS EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERS ITSELF OVER THE REGION AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL ONCE
AGAIN INTO THE 20S...TEENS IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. WARM
ADVECTION BEGINS THURSDAY AND WITH SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH THE 50S...AROUND 50 NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST SHOULD START OUT WITH
GENERALLY PLEASANT CONDITIONS...WITH NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY INCREASES AS
WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND...AS THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION OF AN UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES OR OHIO VALLEY REGION
REACHING THE AREA...ALONG WITH SOME POSSIBLE INFLUX OF SOME
GULF/ATLANTIC MOISTURE...CREATING CLOUDS AND SOME RAIN SHOWERS.
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS COULD LINGER INTO SUNDAY BEFORE
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT BY MONDAY.

HERE ARE SOME SPECIFICS...

THU NT-FRI...A LOW LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD EXTEND INTO
THE REGION FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...KEEPING OUR REGION
GENERALLY DRY...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY SKIES. HOWEVER...THERE IS
SOME POSSIBILITY THAT LOW CLOUDS BEGIN TO DEVELOP OR EXPAND INTO AT
LEAST SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE REGION BY LATE FRI OR FRI NT AS THE
ATLANTIC FETCH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR
SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH FRI MAX TEMPS REACHING AROUND OR SLIGHTLY
OVER 60 IN THE VALLEYS...WITH 50S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. THU NT/FRI
AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 20S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...AND LOWER
30S WITHIN VALLEY AREAS.

FRI NT-SUN...MOST MODELS AND ENSEMBLE SUITES SUGGEST THAT A
SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION BRINGS SOMEWHAT
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE REGION...ESP ON SAT...WITH SOME RAIN
SHOWERS. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ALSO IS EXPECTED TO PASS OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. THESE TWO DISTURBANCES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
UNPHASED AT THIS TIME. IN ADDITION...THE SOUTHERN DISTURBANCE MAY
LIMIT THE MOISTURE AVAILABILITY TO THE NORTHERN SYSTEM.
NEVERTHELESS...WILL KEEP CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS FOR SAT...TAPERING TO
MAINLY SLIGHT CHC/LOW CHC FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE BULK OF UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE SHIFTS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR...OR A BIT BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS SAT-SUN
DUE TO THE EXPECTATION FOR LIMITED SUNSHINE...WITH MAXES MAINLY IN
THE 50S...AND OVERNIGHT MINS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. SLIGHTLY
MILDER BY MONDAY...WITH MAX TEMPS REACHING AROUND 60 IN VALLEYS AND
50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT AND
TUESDAY...PASSING ACROSS THE TAF SITES DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...AND WILL
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. SOME
SLEET OR WET SNOW MAY MIX IN AT KGFL/KALB/KPSF TOWARD 00Z/WED.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MIDNIGHT...ALTHOUGH
SHOWERS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST MAY PRODUCE SOME MVFR VSBYS AT
KGFL. CONDITIONS SHOULD DETERIORATE INTO THE MVFR RANGE AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS LOWER CLOUDS AND SOME SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE SPREAD ACROSS
THE TAF SITES. SOME IFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KPSF AS
WELL...WITH A SMALLER CHANCE AT KPOU. MAINLY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY DUE TO LOW CIGS...AND
WIDESPREAD RAIN OR SHOWERS.

STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AT 10-20 KTS
WITH SOME GUSTS 25-30 KTS...STRONGEST AT KALB DUE TO FUNNELING UP
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. THE WINDS WILL PERSIST AT 10-16 KTS WITH
SOME GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS AT KALB LATER TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL
WEAKEN AT THE SFC...SO SOME LLWS GROUPS WERE PLACED IN AT KPOU AND
KPSF AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE 2KFT AGL WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 40-50
KTS WITH THE SFC WINDS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 10 KTS. KALB
WILL REMAIN GUSTY...SO NO LLWS WAS ADDED AT THIS TIME. ON
TUESDAY...EXPECT SOUTH WINDS TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN TO 10-20 KT
WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 KT...SHIFTING INTO THE WEST/NORTHWEST WITH THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE BETWEEN 20Z-24Z.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT.WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 30.0
DEFINITE SHSN. WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX. THURSDAY: NO
OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. THIS
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY WITH PERIODS OF RAIN...WHICH
COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES. IT WILL TURN DRAMATICALLY COLDER BEHIND
THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THURSDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER
EXPECTED.

TONIGHT...CLOUDS INCREASE AND SO DO SHOWERS. A SOAKING RAIN IS
VERY LIKELY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ALL AREAS SEEING WELL OVER
A QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL. THE RAIN SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS IN
HIGHER TERRAIN.

MUCH COLDER WEATHER WILL BE USHERED IN BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT
TUESDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY...THE SUNSHINE SHOULD RETURN BUT IT WILL BE
COLD AND BRISK.

THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK LOOKS DRY WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND
MODERATING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR THE ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY/LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA
REGION...SOUTHERN VERMONT AND THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES.

A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE DELTA DAM ON THE UPPER
MOHAWK RIVER UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...AS RECENT RAINFALL AND
SIGNIFICANT SNOW MELT IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THE RESERVOIR ABOVE FLOOD
STAGE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A RIVER FLOOD WARNING ALSO CONTINUES
FOR RIVERBANK DUE TO EXPECTED SNOW MELT AND RAIN.

OUR NORTHERN AREAS ARE STILL DEALING WITH SNOWMELT WHICH HAS
ALREADY SWELLED MANY OF THE RIVERS IN THE REGION. IT LOOKS AS IF
1-2+ INCHES OF RAINFALL WILL FALL STARTING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE HEAVIEST OF THE RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE FROM MIDDAY
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING AS THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. PRECIPITATION COULD LINGER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND END
UP AS A LITTLE SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

ALL AREAS COULD SEE PONDING OF WATER IN URBAN AREAS AND AREAS OF POOR
DRAINAGE.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     MORNING FOR NYZ032-033-038>043-050-053-054-082>084.
MA...FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     MORNING FOR MAZ001.
VT...FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/NAS
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/KL/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL/WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...SND/NAS










000
FXUS61 KOKX 150438
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1238 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY
AND THEN MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY...THEN REMAINS NORTH OF THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WEAKENS
AND MOVES EAST FRIDAY...ALLOWING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO APPROACH
FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS WEEKEND. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
PRECIPITATION A LITTLE SLOWER TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AS UPPER
TROUGH REMAINS WELL TO THE WEST. HOWEVER TIMING STILL BRING RAIN
INTO THE WESTERN SECTIONS BY MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE WITH
LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS. FOG WAS JUST BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP...MAINLY ALONG THE COAST. ALSO UPDATED TEMPERATURES AND
DEW POINTS FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS.

DEEP TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS PUSHES INTO THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT...WHILE ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD FRONT WITH
PRIMARY LOW PUSHES INTO WESTERN NY/PA OVERNIGHT. DEEP LAYERED
MOISTURE INCREASES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUE MORNING AS INCREASING
FORCING/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.

PERSISTENT MOIST ONSHORE FLOW UNDER A STRONG INVERSION HAS LED TO
THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS. PATTERN FOR ADVECTION FOG AND DRIZZLE
WILL INCREASE ALONG COASTAL AREAS OF CT/LI OVERNIGHT...BUT A
STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW LEAVES SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW DENSE FOG
WILL BECOME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE STRONG AND DEEP NEUTRALLY
TILTED UPPER TROUGH TROUGH SLIDING FROM THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY TO APPALACHIANS ON TUESDAY...AND THEN NEGATIVELY TILTING
THROUGH THE NE TUESDAY NIGHT. ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
APPROACHING THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON AND CROSSING IN THE
EVENING.

INCREASING CHANCE FOR RAIN TUESDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON
WITH INCREASING LIFT AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. IN ADDITION...WITH A 65 TO 75 KT LOW LEVEL
JET AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE IN THE
MORNING INTO AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH
LIKELY...HIGHEST COAST...BUT AN INVERSION SHOULD LIMIT GUSTS
MAINLY INTO THE 30S. ANY HEAVY RAIN MAY HAVE ENOUGH DOWNWARD
MOMENTUM TO OVERCOME THE INVERSION AND BRING A HIGHER FRACTION OF
THE LOW LEVEL JET TO THE SURFACE.

WITH GULF MOISTURE TAP...INCREASING FORCING/MOISTURE  CONVERGENCE
MID MORNING INTO AFTERNOON...AND WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY...AREAS
OF HEAVY RAIN AND EMBEDDED CONVECTION ARE POSSIBLE. SEE HYDROLOGY
SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS ON RAINFALL AND ASSOCIATED IMPACTS.

MAIN CONCERN FOR TUE AFT/EVE IS THAT MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT IN SIGNALING A SYNOPTICALLY FORCED SQUALL LINE
TRAVERSING THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING...WHICH
WOULD HAVE POTENTIAL TO BRING DOWN GUSTS OF 50+ MPH. THIS WILL
HAVE TO BE HANDLED BY SHORT FUSE ADVISORY/WARNING.

STRONG COLD ADVECTION EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT TUE
EVENING. WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH AND GUSTS 35 TO 45 MPH LIKELY TUESDAY
NIGHT IN ITS WAKE. ADDITIONALLY...MODELS CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARDS A
TRANSITION TO WINTRY PRECIP IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT BEFORE
ENDING...PARTICULARLY ACROSS NW ZONES. WITH SHORTWAVE INSTABILITY
COMING THROUGH...A BRIEF BURST OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION TUE EVENING N&W OF NYC. THIS POSES POTENTIAL FOR
SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION...AND WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE
20S SOME ICY ROAD CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.

LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO VERY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH THE GROWING FOR THE ENTIRE
COASTAL AREAS AND PORTIONS OF INTERIOR NE NJ/LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY...THERE IS POTENTIAL THAT FREEZE CONDITIONS COULD BE MET FOR
MUCH OF THIS AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE BIG STORY DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE TEMPERATURES...AS THEY
WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...AND ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING HOW WARM IT HAS BEEN ACROSS THE AREA RECENTLY. WEDNESDAY
WILL FEATURE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BUILDS IN. 850 TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL
RANGE FROM AROUND -8C INLAND...TO -3C TO -6C ACROSS LONG ISLAND.
THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH LOWER 50S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NYC METRO
AREA.

THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS WEST OF THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...AND THEN TRACK TO THE NORTH AND EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW A NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. WINDS INCREASE A
BIT OVERNIGHT FOR EASTERN SECTIONS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO THE HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENING OVER NEW
ENGLAND. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY OF
THE WEEK. WITH WINDS INCREASING OVERNIGHT...THEY WILL NOT BE AS COLD
AS THEY COULD POTENTIALLY BE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OUTLYING AREAS.
WIDESPREAD LOWS BELOW FREEZING ARE EXPECTED ACROSS AREAS WELL
INLAND. WHEREAS TEMPERATURES IN MIDDLE 30S ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NYC
METRO AND COASTAL SECTIONS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME ISOLATED SPOTS
MAY DIP TO FREEZING IN THESE AREAS. CONTINUED TO MENTION PATCHY
FROST ACROSS ACROSS CERTAIN AREAS. THERE ARE SOME AREAS OF EASTERN
LONG ISLAND THAT ARE FORECAST TO DROP BELOW FREEZING...BUT DID NOT
MENTION FROST HERE AS WINDS OVERNIGHT PICK UP A BIT.

QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY PUSH TO THE NORTHEAST EAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY MEAN A WARMING TREND AFTER WEDNESDAY. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE LOW APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE
WEST FRIDAY NIGHT. ALSO...WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFFSHORE AND
HEAD NORTHEAST. 00Z ECMWF AND TO SOME EXTENT...THE 12Z GFS TRY TO
PHASE THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS. IN BOTH CASES...THE
RESULTING COASTAL ARE TOO FAR OFFSHORE...AND ONLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IS IN THE FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL
FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...THEN
SLOWLY CROSSES THE TRI-STATE TUESDAY.

CONDITIONS BEGINNING SLOW DETERIORATION TOWARDS IFR INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALREADY IFR AT KISP...AND MVFR KGON. HAVE DELAYED
ONSET OF MVFR THEN IFR AT REMAINDER OF TERMINALS BASED ON LATEST
TRENDS. STILL EXPECT IFR TO HOLD OFF AT KSWF UNTIL 12Z. IFR
SHOULD THEN CONTINUE THROUGH LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON WEST...EARLY
EVENING EAST. THERE IS SOME CHANCE OF LIFR/VLIFR ESPECIALLY AT
COASTAL TERMINALS AND KHPN.

LLWS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY ALL TERMINALS BUT KSWF WITH WINDS 50-65KT
1000-2000FT - DEPTH AND SPEED VARY BASED ON LOCATION. GUSTS HAVE
BEGUN TO ABATE...AND WOULD EXPECT TO END AT ALL TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW CONTINUE TO BRING GUSTS BACK AROUND MID-
MORNING - HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS ONLY MODERATE.

ISOLATED TSRA POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS MAINLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON -
CONFIDENCE IN THIS AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN
THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT...PERIOD OF -SN OR -SN/PL AS PRECIPITATION ENDS NW
TERMINALS...WITH PERIOD -SNRA POSSIBLE REMAINDER. NW-N WIND G
35-40KT POSSIBLE.
.WEDNESDAY...VFR. N WIND G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.THURSDAY...VFR. E WIND G 20-25KT POSSIBLE.
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.SATURDAY...LOW CHANCE OF -SHRA...WITH MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IF
-SHRA OCCURS.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH TUE ON THE HARBOR BAYS AND SOUND.
THE SCA MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A GALE WARNING FOR TUE AFTERNOON.

POTENTIAL FOR FOG ON THE WATERS INCREASES TONIGHT AND CONTINUES INTO
TUESDAY. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED WITH EXPECTATION OF
VSBY TO DROP BELOW 1 NM OVERNIGHT WITH CONTINUED MOIST FLOW.

SCA GUST ON THE NEARSHORE WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW SCA LATE
THIS EVENING AS MIXING DECREASES...BUT SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MARGINAL GUSTS AND
SEAS.

GALES POSSIBLE TUESDAY FOR OCEAN WATERS AND PERHAPS ALL WATERS AS
STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES...BUT BETTER CHANCE WILL BE IN WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION. HAVE
HELD OFF ON GALE WARNING WITH MARGINAL NATURE OF GALES ON TUESDAY.

WAVES WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 5 FT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. WIND
GUSTS ABOVE 25 KT ON WEDNESDAY...BUT DIMINISHING THROUGHOUT THE
DAY AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA...COMING BELOW 25
KT BY THE AFTERNOON. WINDS INCREASE TO ABOVE 25 KT AGAIN ON
THURSDAY...BUT DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT...AND FOR THE MOST
PART...SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 25 KT THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
QPF OF 1 TO 2 INCHES...NEARLY ALL RAIN...EXPECTED FROM LATE TONIGHT
INTO TUE NIGHT...WITH POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER END LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3
INCHES.

MODERATE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS AND FLASHY SMALL STREAMS. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF FLASH
FLOODING ACROSS NE NJ WITH ANY TRAINING OF HEAVY RAIN/EMBEDDED
CONVECTION AS 1 HR FFG IS ONLY AROUND 3/4 OF AN INCH.

NOTE...MINOR FLOODING CONTINUE ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER.
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY CAUSE WATER LEVELS TO
CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE
FLOOD LEVEL TO BE REACHED. MONITOR THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS FROM
NWS TAUNTON MA.

THEREAFTER...NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345.
     GALE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR ANZ330-
     335-338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-
     335-338-340-345.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.
     GALE WATCH FROM 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT
     FOR ANZ350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ350-
     353-355.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KALY 150305
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1105 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. THIS
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY WITH PERIODS OF RAIN...WHICH
COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES. IT WILL TURN DRAMATICALLY COLDER BEHIND
THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THURSDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER
EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
...RENSSELAER COUNTY HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE FLOOD WATCH DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING IN TROY AS RAIN AND SNOW MELT BUILDS
DOWNSTREAM THROUGH THE HUDSON RIVER TOMORROW AND WEDNESDAY...

AS OF 1055 PM EDT...THE PREVIOUS LINE/AREA OF SHOWERS HAS
DECREASED IN AREAL COVERAGE UPON REACHING THE SOUTHEAST
ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE GEORGE REGION. STILL EXPECT SOME SHOWERS TO
AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS/LAKE GEORGE REGION
OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS...WITH PERHAPS A FEW SPRINKLES FURTHER S
AND E INTO THE EASTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...SARATOGA REGION AND
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL REGION...BUT SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT
AS THE MAIN FORCING WITH TODAY/S SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO
CANADA...WHILE THE NEXT IMPULSE ORGANIZES OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS.

SO...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH
OF THE REMAINDER OF NIGHT IN MOST AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
90...UNTIL CLOSER TO DAYBREAK...WHEN THE AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
SOME SHOWERS WILL PERSIST AT TIMES OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY.

RELATIVELY STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
RAIN WILL HELP TEMPERATURES FALL TOWARD WET BULBS...BUT STILL ONLY
INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STRONG UPPER IMPULSE IN THE CENTRAL U.S. CATCHES UP WITH THE FRONT
CURRENTLY FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE OH/TN VALLEY
AND RACES EASTWARD THROUGH TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT.
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY OVER OUR REGION NOW SHOULD DECREASE AS
WIDESPREAD RAIN DEVELOPS. HOWEVER...SOME INSTABILITY ROOTED IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER COULD SUPPORT CONVECTION ALONG THE COLD
FRONT...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE EXTREME FORCING MECHANISMS
EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE. THE BOUNDARY LAYER JET ENERGY SHOULD
RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN...ESPECIALLY AS THE COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS
THE HUDSON RIVER INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT
OF AROUND 20C IN A DISTANCE OF LESS THAN 200 MILES IS QUITE
EXTREME AND QUITE UNUSUAL.

THE RAPID EASTWARD MOVEMENT SHOULD SUPPORT SOME SHALLOW ENHANCED
LINE OF CONVECTION...MAYBE WITHOUT THUNDER...BUT SOME VERY GUSTY
WINDS...MAYBE EVEN SOME ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE IN HIGHER
TERRAIN FROM THE TACONICS THROUGH WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. GRADIENT
SOUTHERLY WINDS COULD APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS IN THE SOUTHERN
GREEN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN BERKSHIRES...BUT MORE LIKELY THE
POTENTIALLY ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS COULD BE MORE BRIEF...
ASSOCIATED WITH SOME SHALLOW CONVECTION SO NO ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME. STILL SUGGESTING 40 TO 45 MPH GUSTS IN SOME AREAS TOMORROW.

TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN MOST
AREAS...THEN DROP RAPIDLY IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE COLD AIR SPREADS
EAST. THERE SHOULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH LINGERING PRECIPITATION AND THE COLD AIR IN PLACE SO
THAT THERE COULD BE A BRIEF MIX TO SLEET AND EVENTUALLY SOME SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY IN MOST AREAS BEFORE ENDING BY MIDNIGHT. HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...EASTERN CATSKILLS...SOUTHERN
GREEN MOUNTAINS AND BERKSHIRES COULD SEE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW.
EVEN VALLEY AREAS COULD SEE A LIGHT DUSTING OF SLEET AND SNOW. LOW
TEMPERATURES BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE IN THE 20S...WITH A
FEW TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS. IT SHOULD BE QUITE BREEZY TUESDAY
NIGHT AS WELL.

ON WEDNESDAY...IT SHOULD BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY BUT STILL
BREEZY WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION. STILL...WITH STRONG SUN...HIGHS
SHOULD GET SOLIDLY INTO THE 40S TO NEAR 50...BUT A LITTLE COOLER
IN HIGHER TERRAIN. WINDS EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERS ITSELF OVER THE REGION AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL ONCE
AGAIN INTO THE 20S...TEENS IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. WARM
ADVECTION BEGINS THURSDAY AND WITH SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH THE 50S...AROUND 50 NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST SHOULD START OUT WITH
GENERALLY PLEASANT CONDITIONS...WITH NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY INCREASES AS
WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND...AS THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION OF AN UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES OR OHIO VALLEY REGION
REACHING THE AREA...ALONG WITH SOME POSSIBLE INFLUX OF SOME
GULF/ATLANTIC MOISTURE...CREATING CLOUDS AND SOME RAIN SHOWERS.
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS COULD LINGER INTO SUNDAY BEFORE
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT BY MONDAY.

HERE ARE SOME SPECIFICS...

THU NT-FRI...A LOW LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD EXTEND INTO
THE REGION FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...KEEPING OUR REGION
GENERALLY DRY...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY SKIES. HOWEVER...THERE IS
SOME POSSIBILITY THAT LOW CLOUDS BEGIN TO DEVELOP OR EXPAND INTO AT
LEAST SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE REGION BY LATE FRI OR FRI NT AS THE
ATLANTIC FETCH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR
SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH FRI MAX TEMPS REACHING AROUND OR SLIGHTLY
OVER 60 IN THE VALLEYS...WITH 50S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. THU NT/FRI
AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 20S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...AND LOWER
30S WITHIN VALLEY AREAS.

FRI NT-SUN...MOST MODELS AND ENSEMBLE SUITES SUGGEST THAT A
SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION BRINGS SOMEWHAT
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE REGION...ESP ON SAT...WITH SOME RAIN
SHOWERS. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ALSO IS EXPECTED TO PASS OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. THESE TWO DISTURBANCES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
UNPHASED AT THIS TIME. IN ADDITION...THE SOUTHERN DISTURBANCE MAY
LIMIT THE MOISTURE AVAILABILITY TO THE NORTHERN SYSTEM.
NEVERTHELESS...WILL KEEP CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS FOR SAT...TAPERING TO
MAINLY SLIGHT CHC/LOW CHC FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE BULK OF UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE SHIFTS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR...OR A BIT BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS SAT-SUN
DUE TO THE EXPECTATION FOR LIMITED SUNSHINE...WITH MAXES MAINLY IN
THE 50S...AND OVERNIGHT MINS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. SLIGHTLY
MILDER BY MONDAY...WITH MAX TEMPS REACHING AROUND 60 IN VALLEYS AND
50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT AND
TUESDAY...PASSING ACROSS THE TAF SITES DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...AND WILL
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. SOME
SLEET OR WET SNOW MAY MIX IN AT KGFL/KALB/KPSF TOWARD 00Z/WED.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MIDNIGHT...ALTHOUGH
SHOWERS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST MAY PRODUCE SOME MVFR VSBYS AT
KGFL. CONDITIONS SHOULD DETERIORATE INTO THE MVFR RANGE AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS LOWER CLOUDS AND SOME SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE SPREAD ACROSS
THE TAF SITES. SOME IFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KPSF AS
WELL...WITH A SMALLER CHANCE AT KPOU. MAINLY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY DUE TO LOW CIGS...AND
WIDESPREAD RAIN OR SHOWERS.

STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AT 10-20 KTS
WITH SOME GUSTS 25-30 KTS...STRONGEST AT KALB DUE TO FUNNELING UP
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. THE WINDS WILL PERSIST AT 10-16 KTS WITH
SOME GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS AT KALB LATER TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL
WEAKEN AT THE SFC...SO SOME LLWS GROUPS WERE PLACED IN AT KPOU AND
KPSF AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE 2KFT AGL WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 40-50
KTS WITH THE SFC WINDS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 10 KTS. KALB
WILL REMAIN GUSTY...SO NO LLWS WAS ADDED AT THIS TIME. ON
TUESDAY...EXPECT SOUTH WINDS TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN TO 10-20 KT
WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 KT...SHIFTING INTO THE WEST/NORTHWEST WITH THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE BETWEEN 20Z-24Z.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT.WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 30.0 DEFINITE SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. THIS
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY WITH PERIODS OF RAIN...WHICH
COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES. IT WILL TURN DRAMATICALLY COLDER BEHIND
THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THURSDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER
EXPECTED.

TONIGHT...CLOUDS INCREASE AND SO DO SHOWERS. A SOAKING RAIN IS
VERY LIKELY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ALL AREAS SEEING WELL OVER
A QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL. THE RAIN SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS IN
HIGHER TERRAIN.

MUCH COLDER WEATHER WILL BE USHERED IN BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT
TUESDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY...THE SUNSHINE SHOULD RETURN BUT IT WILL BE
COLD AND BRISK.

THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK LOOKS DRY WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND
MODERATING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR THE ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY/LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA
REGION...SOUTHERN VERMONT AND THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES.

A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE DELTA DAM ON THE UPPER
MOHAWK RIVER UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...AS RECENT RAINFALL AND
SIGNIFICANT SNOW MELT IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THE RESERVOIR ABOVE FLOOD
STAGE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A RIVER FLOOD WARNING ALSO CONTINUES
FOR RIVERBANK DUE TO EXPECTED SNOW MELT AND RAIN.

OUR NORTHERN AREAS ARE STILL DEALING WITH SNOWMELT WHICH HAS
ALREADY SWELLED MANY OF THE RIVERS IN THE REGION. IT LOOKS AS IF
1-2+ INCHES OF RAINFALL WILL FALL STARTING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE HEAVIEST OF THE RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE FROM MIDDAY
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING AS THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. PRECIPITATION COULD LINGER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND END
UP AS A LITTLE SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

ALL AREAS COULD SEE PONDING OF WATER IN URBAN AREAS AND AREAS OF POOR
DRAINAGE.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 AM EDT TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ032-033-038>043-050-053-054-082>084.
MA...FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 AM EDT TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
     FOR MAZ001.
VT...FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 AM EDT TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
     FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...KL/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL/WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...SND/NAS








000
FXUS61 KOKX 150249
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1049 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY
AND THEN MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY...THEN REMAINS NORTH OF THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WEAKENS
AND MOVES EAST FRIDAY...ALLOWING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO APPROACH
FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS WEEKEND. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
DEEP TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS PUSHES INTO THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT...WHILE ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD FRONT WITH
PRIMARY LOW PUSHES INTO WESTERN NY/PA OVERNIGHT. DEEP LAYERED
MOISTURE INCREASES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUE MORNING AS INCREASING
FORCING/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.

PERSISTENT MOIST ONSHORE FLOW UNDER A STRONG INVERSION SHOULD
INCREASE LIKELIHOOD FOR STRATUS OVERNIGHT. PATTERN FOR ADVECTION
FOG AND DRIZZLE WILL INCREASE ALONG COASTAL AREAS OF CT/LI LATE
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT...BUT A STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW
LEAVES SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW DENSE FOG WILL BECOME. LATER SHIFT
WILL HAVE TO RE-EVALUATE NEED FOR A DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

BREEZY AND UNSEASONABLY MID CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. S
WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS LIKELY ACROSS COASTAL
AREAS...INCREASING TOWARDS DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE STRONG AND DEEP NEUTRALLY
TILTED UPPER TROUGH TROUGH SLIDING FROM THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY TO APPALACHIANS ON TUESDAY...AND THEN NEGATIVELY TILTING
THROUGH THE NE TUESDAY NIGHT. ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
APPROACHING THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON AND CROSSING IN THE
EVENING.

INCREASING CHANCE FOR RAIN TUESDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON
WITH INCREASING LIFT AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. IN ADDITION...WITH A 65 TO 75 KT LOW LEVEL
JET AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE IN THE
MORNING INTO AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH
LIKELY...HIGHEST COAST...BUT AN INVERSION SHOULD LIMIT GUSTS
MAINLY INTO THE 30S. ANY HEAVY RAIN MAY HAVE ENOUGH DOWNWARD
MOMENTUM TO OVERCOME THE INVERSION AND BRING A HIGHER FRACTION OF
THE LOW LEVEL JET TO THE SURFACE.

WITH GULF MOISTURE TAP...INCREASING FORCING/MOISTURE  CONVERGENCE
MID MORNING INTO AFTERNOON...AND WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY...AREAS
OF HEAVY RAIN AND EMBEDDED CONVECTION ARE POSSIBLE. SEE HYDROLOGY
SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS ON RAINFALL AND ASSOCIATED IMPACTS.

MAIN CONCERN FOR TUE AFT/EVE IS THAT MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT IN SIGNALING A SYNOPTICALLY FORCED SQUALL LINE
TRAVERSING THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING...WHICH
WOULD HAVE POTENTIAL TO BRING DOWN GUSTS OF 50+ MPH. THIS WILL
HAVE TO BE HANDLED BY SHORT FUSE ADVISORY/WARNING.

STRONG COLD ADVECTION EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT TUE
EVENING. WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH AND GUSTS 35 TO 45 MPH LIKELY TUESDAY
NIGHT IN ITS WAKE. ADDITIONALLY...MODELS CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARDS A
TRANSITION TO WINTRY PRECIP IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT BEFORE
ENDING...PARTICULARLY ACROSS NW ZONES. WITH SHORTWAVE INSTABILITY
COMING THROUGH...A BRIEF BURST OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION TUE EVENING N&W OF NYC. THIS POSES POTENTIAL FOR
SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION...AND WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE
20S SOME ICY ROAD CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.

LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO VERY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH THE GROWING FOR THE ENTIRE
COASTAL AREAS AND PORTIONS OF INTERIOR NE NJ/LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY...THERE IS POTENTIAL THAT FREEZE CONDITIONS COULD BE MET FOR
MUCH OF THIS AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE BIG STORY DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE TEMPERATURES...AS THEY
WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...AND ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING HOW WARM IT HAS BEEN ACROSS THE AREA RECENTLY. WEDNESDAY
WILL FEATURE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BUILDS IN. 850 TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL
RANGE FROM AROUND -8C INLAND...TO -3C TO -6C ACROSS LONG ISLAND.
THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH LOWER 50S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NYC METRO
AREA.

THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS WEST OF THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...AND THEN TRACK TO THE NORTH AND EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW A NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. WINDS INCREASE A
BIT OVERNIGHT FOR EASTERN SECTIONS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO THE HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENING OVER NEW
ENGLAND. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY OF
THE WEEK. WITH WINDS INCREASING OVERNIGHT...THEY WILL NOT BE AS COLD
AS THEY COULD POTENTIALLY BE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OUTLYING AREAS.
WIDESPREAD LOWS BELOW FREEZING ARE EXPECTED ACROSS AREAS WELL
INLAND. WHEREAS TEMPERATURES IN MIDDLE 30S ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NYC
METRO AND COASTAL SECTIONS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME ISOLATED SPOTS
MAY DIP TO FREEZING IN THESE AREAS. CONTINUED TO MENTION PATCHY
FROST ACROSS ACROSS CERTAIN AREAS. THERE ARE SOME AREAS OF EASTERN
LONG ISLAND THAT ARE FORECAST TO DROP BELOW FREEZING...BUT DID NOT
MENTION FROST HERE AS WINDS OVERNIGHT PICK UP A BIT.

QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY PUSH TO THE NORTHEAST EAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY MEAN A WARMING TREND AFTER WEDNESDAY. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE LOW APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE
WEST FRIDAY NIGHT. ALSO...WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFFSHORE AND
HEAD NORTHEAST. 00Z ECMWF AND TO SOME EXTENT...THE 12Z GFS TRY TO
PHASE THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS. IN BOTH CASES...THE
RESULTING COASTAL ARE TOO FAR OFFSHORE...AND ONLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IS IN THE FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL
FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...THEN
SLOWLY CROSSES THE TRI-STATE TUESDAY.

CONDITIONS BEGINNING SLOW DETERIORATION TOWARDS IFR INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALREADY IFR AT KISP...AND MVFR KGON. HAVE DELAYED
ONSET OF MVFR THEN IFR AT REMAINDER OF TERMINALS BASED ON LATEST
TRENDS. STILL EXPECT IFR TO HOLD OFF AT KSWF UNTIL 12Z. IFR
SHOULD THEN CONTINUE THROUGH LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON WEST...EARLY
EVENING EAST. THERE IS SOME CHANCE OF LIFR/VLIFR ESPECIALLY AT
COASTAL TERMINALS AND KHPN.

LLWS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY ALL TERMINALS BUT KSWF WITH WINDS 50-65KT
1000-2000FT - DEPTH AND SPEED VARY BASED ON LOCATION. GUSTS HAVE
BEGUN TO ABATE...AND WOULD EXPECT TO END AT ALL TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW CONTINUE TO BRING GUSTS BACK AROUND MID-
MORNING - HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS ONLY MODERATE.

ISOLATED TSRA POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS MAINLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON -
CONFIDENCE IN THIS AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN
THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT...PERIOD OF -SN OR -SN/PL AS PRECIPITATION ENDS NW
TERMINALS...WITH PERIOD -SNRA POSSIBLE REMAINDER. NW-N WIND G
35-40KT POSSIBLE.
.WEDNESDAY...VFR. N WIND G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.THURSDAY...VFR. E WIND G 20-25KT POSSIBLE.
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.SATURDAY...LOW CHANCE OF -SHRA...WITH MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IF
-SHRA OCCURS.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH TUE ON THE HARBOR BAYS AND SOUND.
THE SCA MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A GALE WARNING FOR TUE AFTERNOON.

POTENTIAL FOR FOG ON THE WATERS INCREASES TONIGHT AND CONTINUES INTO
TUESDAY. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED WITH EXPECTATION OF
VSBY TO DROP BELOW 1 NM OVERNIGHT WITH CONTINUED MOIST FLOW.

SCA GUST ON THE NEARSHORE WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW SCA LATE
THIS EVENING AS MIXING DECREASES...BUT SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MARGINAL GUSTS AND
SEAS.

GALES POSSIBLE TUESDAY FOR OCEAN WATERS AND PERHAPS ALL WATERS AS
STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES...BUT BETTER CHANCE WILL BE IN WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION. HAVE
HELD OFF ON GALE WARNING WITH MARGINAL NATURE OF GALES ON TUESDAY.

WAVES WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 5 FT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. WIND
GUSTS ABOVE 25 KT ON WEDNESDAY...BUT DIMINISHING THROUGHOUT THE
DAY AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA...COMING BELOW 25
KT BY THE AFTERNOON. WINDS INCREASE TO ABOVE 25 KT AGAIN ON
THURSDAY...BUT DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT...AND FOR THE MOST
PART...SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 25 KT THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
QPF OF 1 TO 2 INCHES...NEARLY ALL RAIN...EXPECTED FROM LATE TONIGHT
INTO TUE NIGHT...WITH POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER END LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3
INCHES.

MODERATE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS AND FLASHY SMALL STREAMS. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF FLASH
FLOODING ACROSS NE NJ WITH ANY TRAINING OF HEAVY RAIN/EMBEDDED
CONVECTION AS 1 HR FFG IS ONLY AROUND 3/4 OF AN INCH.

NOTE...MINOR FLOODING CONTINUE ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER.
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY CAUSE WATER LEVELS TO
CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE
FLOOD LEVEL TO BE REACHED. MONITOR THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS FROM
NWS TAUNTON MA.

THEREAFTER...NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL DEPARTURES OF 1 TO 1 1/2 FT NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING THIS TUE EVENING/NIGHT HIGH TIDE. TIDAL GUIDANCE APPEARS
TO BE A BIT UNDERDONE...BUT EVEN WITH THAT THINKING THAT ANY
COASTAL FLOOD IMPACTS WOULD BE MINOR. SOME MINOR BEACH EROSION
ISSUES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES OF LI DUE TO
HIGH SURF TUE AFT/NIGHT AS WELL.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 7 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ330-
     335-338-340-345.
     GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ330-335-338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-
     340-345.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
     GALE WATCH FROM 10 AM EDT TUESDAY THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
     FOR ANZ350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NV
NEAR TERM...JMC/NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...JMC/JP/NV
HYDROLOGY...JP/NV
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







000
FXUS61 KBOX 150202
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1002 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING WITH IT A SOAKING RAIN FOR
TUESDAY EXITING SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY. DRIER AND MUCH
COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES MODERATING BY FRIDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY
OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...
ALTHOUGH A COMBINATION OF BL DWPTS AND LATEST LAPS SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST OVERALL LOWER LVL COLUMN MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE ONLY BKN-OVC CLOUD COVER OBSERVED. A LOW-TOPPED
CONVECTIVE LINE MOVING THROUGH NY HAS VERY RAPIDLY
DIMINISHED...DUE TO A COMBINATION OF LOSS OF DIURNAL SUPPORT AND
THE USURPING OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE BY STRONG SHORTWAVE/LLJ WELL
TO THE S. THEREFORE...FEEL THAT LATEST MESOSCALE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO HAVE THE RIGHT IDEA...THAT THIS INITIAL BAND OF
PRECIP WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO EFFECT ON SRN NEW ENGLAND. WILL NEED
TO WATCH THE NOSE OF THE SRN LLJ MENTIONED EARLIER
THOUGH...BECAUSE IT IS THAT WHICH COULD BRING BLOSSOMING RAINFALL
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS PARTICULARLY IN CT AND WRN MA AS
THE STRONG COLD FRONT WELL W OF THE REGION APPROACHES.

BL MIXING CONTINUES TO KEEP FOG AT BAY ACROSS THE REGION SO WILL
DELAY FOG TIMING BY A FEW HOURS TO SEE HOW MUCH MIXING DIMINISHES
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...

INCREASING S WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. BLUSTERY AT
THE SURFACE BUT BELOW WIND-ADV CRITERIA WITH 25 TO 30 MPH GUSTS AT
MOST. WILL SEE THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG/DRIZZLE AS MOISTURE
CONVERGES ALONG THE NOSE OF A DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL-JET POOLING
BENEATH A DRY-AIR INVERSION ALOFT AND UNDERGOING WEAK ISENTROPIC
ASCENT MAINLY ALONG THE S-COAST. BULK OF THE RAIN STAYS WEST ALONG
WITH THE COLD FRONT.

BUT SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER OUTCOMES THIS EVENING WILL BE
DENSE FOG OR LOW CLOUDS. WITH HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR TRANSPOSED OVER
COLDER OCEAN WATERS WOULD EXPECT DENSE FOG ALONG THE S-COAST...BUT
WITH STRONG S WINDS...MECHANICAL MIXING MAY RESULT IN VERY LOW
STRATUS. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY ISSUANCE OF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR
NOW...BUT HIGHLIGHT THE THREAT IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...

COLD FRONT SURGES INTO NEW ENGLAND. ANTICIPATING A DISTINCT BAND OF
RAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.

CONTINUED STRONG S LOW-LEVEL-JET AHEAD OF THE FRONT UP TO 80 MPH AT
H925. THOUGH BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING IS LIMITED BY WARMER AIR ALOFT...
AM CONCERNED HEAVIER SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD LEND
TO PRECIP-DRAG OF FASTER WINDS TO THE SURFACE. CONSIDERING FORECAST
WEAK INSTABILITY AND SHEAR-VECTORS ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE FRONT...
ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD CONTAIN AN ISOLATED WIND THREAT.
HAVE APPENDED THE CONVECTIVE THREAT OF GUSTY WINDS TO THE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

TIGHTENING PRES-GRADIENT AND LIMITED BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING SHOULD
ALLOW FOR S WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH POTENTIALLY EXCEEDING WIND ADV
CRITERIA. MUCH LIKE TODAY...GUSTS EXCEEDING 45 MPH WILL BE ISOLATED.
FEEL THE WIND ISSUES CAN BE HANDLED BY SHORT-FUSED PRODUCTS ESP WITH
THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS. WILL NOT ISSUE A WIND ADV WITH THIS
FORECAST.

S-FETCH WILL ADVECT PWATS OF AROUND 1.5-INCHES N ALONG WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN EXCESS OF 50 DEGREES. TWO AREAS OF CONCERN:
POTENTIAL URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AND RIVER/SMALL-STREAM FLOODING ESP
FOR THE CT-RIVER VALLEY...AS WELL AS THE POSSIBILITY OF DENSE FOG
ALONG THE S-COAST WITH HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR OVER- RIDING A COLDER
OCEAN.

WILL HOIST A FLOOD WATCH FOR THE CT-VALLEY ACCORDINGLY. FURTHER
HYDROLOGICAL DISCUSSION CAN BE FOUND LATER IN THE DISCUSSION DOWN
BELOW. AS FOR THE DENSE FOG...WILL MONITOR OVERNIGHT AND UPDATE
HEADLINES CLOSER TOWARDS MORNING AS FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE
AT THIS TIME.

AS FOR COASTAL FLOODING THREATS...PLEASE SEE THE COASTAL FLOODING
PORTION OF THE AFD OUTLINING THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR SPLASHOVER
ALONG THE S-COAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE SHARP COLD FRONT...
MAINLY FOR THE EVENING PERIOD...SO WILL TABLE THE OUTCOMES BEHIND
THE FRONT FOR THE TUESDAY NIGHT DISCUSSION.

TUESDAY NIGHT...

COLD FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHALLOW COLD AIR
POURS IN VIA WESTERLY WINDS BENEATH SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER AIR ALOFT.

WILL SEE THE BOUNDARY-LAYER DESTABILIZE UP TO H9 WITH COLD-AIR
ADVECTION ALLOWING FOR THE MIX-DOWN OF FASTER MOMENTUM AND W-WIND
GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH AT THE SURFACE. WIND ADVISORIES MAY NEED TO BE
CONSIDERED...BUT AGAIN FEEL SUCH WINDS WILL BE BRIEF AND CAN BE
HANDLED WITH SHORT-FUSED PRODUCTS.

STRONG ASCENT PER RRQ AND MAIN SHORT-WAVE THROUGH THE NEGATIVELY
TILTING TROUGH SHOULD RESULT IN PRECIP ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT
WITHIN THE SHALLOW COLD AIR. BUT THIS SHOULD BE BRIEF WITH AN INFLUX
OF DRIER AIR TO THE REAR /POSSIBLY ALSO THE DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT
OFF THE BERKSHIRES WILL PRESENT LIMITATIONS/. WINTRY PRECIP TYPES
WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF NW MA INTO S NH. ACCUMULATIONS IF
ANY WILL BE JUST AROUND A TRACE. DO NOT BELIEVE WINTER WEATHER
HEADLINES ARE NECESSARY.

BIGGER CONCERN IS ON THE FLASH FREEZE POTENTIAL WITH THE IMMEDIATE
INFLUX OF COLDER AIR. COULD SEE POTENTIAL BLACK-ICE IMPACTS FOR THE
WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTE. LOWS FALLING AROUND THE UPPER-20S TO
LOW-30S BY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* QUIET WEATHER BUT MUCH COOLER WED AND THU
* TEMPERATURES START TO MODERATE FRI INTO THE WEEKEND
* UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND

14/12Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN
THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM.  OVER THE WEEKEND...PARTICULARLY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...THERE START TO BE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
THE GFS AND THE ECMWF.  THESE WILL LIKELY HAVE SOME EFFECT ON THE
TIMING OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER...BUT THESE DIFFERENCES WILL BE
RESOLVED OVER TIME.  ACROSS THE BOARD...MOST OF THE MODELS AS WELL
AS THE ENSEMBLES FOCUS ON THE SOUTHERN STREAM DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND
UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD OVER THE WEEKEND.  EXPECT THIS IS THE
LIKELIER SOLUTION GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT...BUT THERE ARE A FEW
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS/MODEL RUNS THAT ARE FOCUSING MORE ON THE NORTHERN
STREAM LOW.  SO THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT PATTERN FOR
NEXT WEEKEND...AS THERE SHOULD AT THIS TIME RANGE.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THERE COULD BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
ALONG THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT THESE SHOULD COME TO AN
END EARLY AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
THE WEATHER SHOULD BE QUIET ASIDE FROM THESE SHOWERS...BUT CHILLY
WITH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OFF THE OCEAN RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES
WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR MID APRIL.

FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES START TO MODERATE FOR MOST LOCATIONS.  HOWEVER
WITH NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS CONTINUING...EXPECT COASTAL
LOCATIONS TO REMAIN CHILLY.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AS STATED ABOVE...THIS IS LIKELY TO BE A
PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AS A PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE CAROLINAS TO NEAR THE 40/70 BENCHMARK.  THE
FIRST IS FORECAST TO MOVE WELL OUTSIDE OF THE BENCHMARK...LIKELY
BRINGING SHOWERS AND MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE EASTERN
PART OF THE REGION SATURDAY.  THE SECOND MOVES CLOSER TO THE
BENCHMARK...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGHOUT
THE REGION MONDAY.  TEMPERATURES MODERATE ENOUGH THROUGH THIS PERIOD
THAT THIS PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL AS RAIN.  THERE REMAINS
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS...AND THUS
THE RAINFALL THAT WILL NEED TO BE IRONED OUT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

00Z UPDATE...

S WINDS ANTICIPATED TO DROP OFF SLIGHTLY INCREASING LLWS THREATS
AS WINDS 2 KFT AGL OVERNIGHT WILL BE AROUND 50 KTS.

IN ADDITION TO LLWS...MAIN CONCERN FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD IS
THE DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR CIGS AROUND 1-2 KFT WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF
1/2SM FG ALONG THE S-SHORELINE TERMINALS. WITH ANY DENSE FOG WILL
LIKELY SOUP-OUT TO VV002.

COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE TERMINALS LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
EVENING EXITING OFFSHORE SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY. EXPECT
A DISTINCT BAND OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED TSRA /BETTER CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS CT-RIVER VALLEY/.
SUCH STRONGER ACTIVITY COULD YIELD AN ISOLATED WIND THREAT WITH S
WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS. OTHERWISE ON AVERAGE 15 TO 25 KT
SUSTAINED WINDS WITH 25 TO 35 KT GUSTS. EXPECT A MIX OF MVFR-IFR
CIGS AND VSBYS.

AFTER MIDNIGHT...WINDS BACK WEST AS TEMPS DROP CONSIDERABLY. WILL
SEE W-WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS AS CONDITIONS QUICKLY IMPROVE TO
VFR. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW/SLEET MIX TO THE REAR OF THE
COLD FRONT...BUT BEST CHANCES OVER NW MA AND S NH.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST ON WEDNESDAY TO VFR MOST LOCATIONS.
TYPICALLY ON NE WINDS LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP ALONG THE EAST COAST OF MA
INCLUDING KBOS. IFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE EAST COAST ARE THEN
CLIMATOLOGICALLY LIKELY FOR BOTH DAYS.  HOWEVER...MODELS ARE VERY
DRY ON WEDNESDAY...SO THIS MAY NOT OCCUR.  MOISTURE RETURNS THURSDAY
THOUGH.

FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LOW CLOUDS/IFR CONDITIONS MAY
LINGER ALONG THE EAST COAST WITH CONTINUED NE FLOW.  OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.  MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY PARTICULARLY
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA IN RAIN/FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

GALE WARNINGS FOR STRONG S WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT FOR TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...CONTINUING INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS WINDS BACK OUT OF THE WEST WITH PASSAGE OF
THE COLD FRONT REMAINING IN EXCESS OF GALE-FORCE. WAVE HEIGHTS UP
TO 10 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE OUTER WATERS.

ALSO WORTHY OF NOTE...AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT EXPECT WIDESPREAD
RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

AND ALSO BEGINNING TONIGHT...THERE IS ALSO A GREATER POTENTIAL
FOR SEEING DENSE FOG ESP ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WITH VISIBILITIES
DOWN TO A HALF-MILE OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. NORTHWESTERLY GALES SLACKEN AS COLD
FRONT MOVES EAST TOWARDS THE MARITIMES.  WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND THEN THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT.  SEAS
DIMINISH SLOWLY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND BUT WILL
REMAIN ABOVE 5 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS
REMAIN CLOSE TO OR ABOVE SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST ON THE OUTER WATERS.

SATURDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS
MAY INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE WATERS.
MODERATE PROBABILITY OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES BEING NEEDED. IN
ADDITION...VISIBILITIES MAY BE LIMITED IN RAIN/FOG.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY.
THIS IS DUE TO THE EXPECTATION THAT SWOLLEN RIVER CONDITIONS AS A
RESULT OF UPSTREAM SNOWMELT COMBINING WITH THE BASIN AVERAGE 1.5
INCHES OF RAINFALL ANTICIPATED TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF MAINSTEM RIVERS AND ADJOINING CREEKS
AND STREAMS. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR URBAN AND POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING THROUGHOUT THE WATCH AREA.

FLOOD WARNINGS ARE ALREADY IN EFFECT ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER
FOR HARTFORD AND MIDDLE HADDAM. THOSE WITH INTERESTS ALONG LOWER
REACHES OF CT RIVER SHOULD PAY ATTENTION TO THE LATEST FORECASTS
AND CURRENT WATER LEVELS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING 25 TO 35 MPH WILL PRODUCE A STORM-SURGE
OF 1 TO 2 FEET ALONG THE SOUTH-COAST PRIOR TO THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY. COMBINED WITH TUESDAY
EVENINGS HIGH TIDE...AND THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SPLASHOVER
AND MINOR COASTAL FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS AND ROADWAYS ALONG
THE SOUTH-COAST.

THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME TO WARRANT THE
ISSUANCE OF A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT / ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTH-
COAST. WILL EVALUATE WITH LATER FORECASTS AND HIGHLIGHT IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 AM EDT TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
     FOR CTZ002-003.
MA...FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 AM EDT TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
     FOR MAZ002>004-008>011-026.
NH...FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 AM EDT TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
     FOR NHZ011-012-015.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM TUESDAY TO 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ232-233-235-237-250-254>256.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ230-231-234-236-
     251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...DOODY/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...RLG/SIPPRELL
MARINE...RLG/SIPPRELL
HYDROLOGY...STAFF
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...STAFF




000
FXUS61 KOKX 150152
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
952 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY
AND THEN MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY...THEN REMAINS NORTH OF THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WEAKENS
AND MOVES EAST FRIDAY...ALLOWING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO APPROACH
FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS WEEKEND. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
DEEP TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS PUSHES INTO THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT...WHILE ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD FRONT WITH
PRIMARY LOW PUSHES INTO WESTERN NY/PA OVERNIGHT. DEEP LAYERED
MOISTURE INCREASES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUE MORNING AS INCREASING
FORCING/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.

PERSISTENT MOIST ONSHORE FLOW UNDER A STRONG INVERSION SHOULD
INCREASE LIKELIHOOD FOR STRATUS OVERNIGHT. PATTERN FOR ADVECTION
FOG AND DRIZZLE WILL INCREASE ALONG COASTAL AREAS OF CT/LI LATE
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT...BUT A STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW
LEAVES SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW DENSE FOG WILL BECOME. LATER SHIFT
WILL HAVE TO RE-EVALUATE NEED FOR A DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

BREEZY AND UNSEASONABLY MID CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. S
WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS LIKELY ACROSS COASTAL
AREAS...INCREASING TOWARDS DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE STRONG AND DEEP NEUTRALLY
TILTED UPPER TROUGH TROUGH SLIDING FROM THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY TO APPALACHIANS ON TUESDAY...AND THEN NEGATIVELY TILTING
THROUGH THE NE TUESDAY NIGHT. ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
APPROACHING THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON AND CROSSING IN THE
EVENING.

INCREASING CHANCE FOR RAIN TUESDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON
WITH INCREASING LIFT AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. IN ADDITION...WITH A 65 TO 75 KT LOW LEVEL
JET AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE IN THE
MORNING INTO AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH
LIKELY...HIGHEST COAST...BUT AN INVERSION SHOULD LIMIT GUSTS
MAINLY INTO THE 30S. ANY HEAVY RAIN MAY HAVE ENOUGH DOWNWARD
MOMENTUM TO OVERCOME THE INVERSION AND BRING A HIGHER FRACTION OF
THE LOW LEVEL JET TO THE SURFACE.

WITH GULF MOISTURE TAP...INCREASING FORCING/MOISTURE  CONVERGENCE
MID MORNING INTO AFTERNOON...AND WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY...AREAS
OF HEAVY RAIN AND EMBEDDED CONVECTION ARE POSSIBLE. SEE HYDROLOGY
SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS ON RAINFALL AND ASSOCIATED IMPACTS.

MAIN CONCERN FOR TUE AFT/EVE IS THAT MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT IN SIGNALING A SYNOPTICALLY FORCED SQUALL LINE
TRAVERSING THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING...WHICH
WOULD HAVE POTENTIAL TO BRING DOWN GUSTS OF 50+ MPH. THIS WILL
HAVE TO BE HANDLED BY SHORT FUSE ADVISORY/WARNING.

STRONG COLD ADVECTION EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT TUE
EVENING. WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH AND GUSTS 35 TO 45 MPH LIKELY TUESDAY
NIGHT IN ITS WAKE. ADDITIONALLY...MODELS CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARDS A
TRANSITION TO WINTRY PRECIP IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT BEFORE
ENDING...PARTICULARLY ACROSS NW ZONES. WITH SHORTWAVE INSTABILITY
COMING THROUGH...A BRIEF BURST OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION TUE EVENING N&W OF NYC. THIS POSES POTENTIAL FOR
SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION...AND WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE
20S SOME ICY ROAD CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.

LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO VERY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH THE GROWING FOR THE ENTIRE
COASTAL AREAS AND PORTIONS OF INTERIOR NE NJ/LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY...THERE IS POTENTIAL THAT FREEZE CONDITIONS COULD BE MET FOR
MUCH OF THIS AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE BIG STORY DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE TEMPERATURES...AS THEY
WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...AND ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING HOW WARM IT HAS BEEN ACROSS THE AREA RECENTLY. WEDNESDAY
WILL FEATURE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BUILDS IN. 850 TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL
RANGE FROM AROUND -8C INLAND...TO -3C TO -6C ACROSS LONG ISLAND.
THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH LOWER 50S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NYC METRO
AREA.

THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS WEST OF THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...AND THEN TRACK TO THE NORTH AND EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW A NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. WINDS INCREASE A
BIT OVERNIGHT FOR EASTERN SECTIONS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO THE HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENING OVER NEW
ENGLAND. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY OF
THE WEEK. WITH WINDS INCREASING OVERNIGHT...THEY WILL NOT BE AS COLD
AS THEY COULD POTENTIALLY BE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OUTLYING AREAS.
WIDESPREAD LOWS BELOW FREEZING ARE EXPECTED ACROSS AREAS WELL
INLAND. WHEREAS TEMPERATURES IN MIDDLE 30S ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NYC
METRO AND COASTAL SECTIONS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME ISOLATED SPOTS
MAY DIP TO FREEZING IN THESE AREAS. CONTINUED TO MENTION PATCHY
FROST ACROSS ACROSS CERTAIN AREAS. THERE ARE SOME AREAS OF EASTERN
LONG ISLAND THAT ARE FORECAST TO DROP BELOW FREEZING...BUT DID NOT
MENTION FROST HERE AS WINDS OVERNIGHT PICK UP A BIT.

QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY PUSH TO THE NORTHEAST EAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY MEAN A WARMING TREND AFTER WEDNESDAY. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE LOW APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE
WEST FRIDAY NIGHT. ALSO...WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFFSHORE AND
HEAD NORTHEAST. 00Z ECMWF AND TO SOME EXTENT...THE 12Z GFS TRY TO
PHASE THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS. IN BOTH CASES...THE
RESULTING COASTAL ARE TOO FAR OFFSHORE...AND ONLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IS IN THE FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL
FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...THEN
SLOWLY CROSSES THE TRI-STATE TUESDAY.

VFR TO GET STARTED...CONDITIONS THEN DETERIORATE TO IFR BE LATE
THIS EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT FROM S TO N...EXCEPTION IS KSWF WHICH
SHOULD ONLY GET DOWN TO MVFR OVERNIGHT...THEN IFR AROUND 12Z
TUESDAY. IFR SHOULD THEN CONTINUE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON
WEST...EARLY EVENING EAST. THERE IS SOME CHANCE OF LFR/VLIFR
ESPECIALLY AT COASTAL TERMINALS AND KHPN.

LLWS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY ALL TERMINALS BUT KSWF WITH WINDS 50-65KT
1000-2000FT - DEPTH AND SPEED VARY BASED ON LOCATION. FOR NOW
CONTINUING WITH ENDING GUSTS EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN RE-
INTRODUCING AROUND MID-MORNING.

CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE OF IFR...LLWS AND GUSTS IS
HIGH...CONFIDENCE IN TIMING FOR ALL THREE IS LOW.

ISOLATED TSRA POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS MAINLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON -
CONFIDENCE IN THIS AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN
THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF START/END TIME OF IFR...LLWS AND
GUSTS COULD BE OFF +/- 3 HOURS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF START/END TIME OF IFR...LLWS AND
GUSTS COULD BE OFF +/- 3 HOURS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF START/END TIME OF IFR...LLWS AND
GUSTS COULD BE OFF +/- 3 HOURS.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF START/END TIME OF IFR...LLWS AND
GUSTS COULD BE OFF +/- 3 HOURS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF START/END TIME OF IFR...LLWS AND
GUSTS COULD BE OFF +/- 3 HOURS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF START/END TIME OF IFR...LLWS AND
GUSTS COULD BE OFF +/- 3 HOURS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT...PERIOD OF -SN OR -SN/PL AS PRECIPITATION ENDS NW
TERMINALS...WITH PERIOD -SNRA POSSIBLE REMAINDER. NW-N WIND G
35-40KT POSSIBLE.
.WEDNESDAY...VFR. N WIND G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.THURSDAY...VFR. E WIND G 20-25KT POSSIBLE.
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.SATURDAY...LOW CHANCE OF -SHRA...WITH MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IF
-SHRA OCCURS.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED THRU TUE ON THE HARBOR BAYS AND SOUND.
THE SCA MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A GALE WRN FOR TUE AFTN.

POTENTIAL FOR FOG ON THE WATERS INCREASES TONIGHT AND CONTINUES INTO
TUESDAY. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED WITH EXPECTATION OF
VSBY TO DROP BELOW 1 NM OVERNIGHT WITH CONTINUED MOIST FLOW.

SCA GUST ON THE NEARSHORE WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW SCA LATE
THIS EVENING AS MIXING DECREASES...BUT SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MARGINAL GUSTS AND
SEAS.

GALES POSSIBLE TUESDAY FOR OCEAN WATERS AND PERHAPS ALL WATERS AS
STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES...BUT BETTER CHANCE WILL BE IN WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION. HAVE
HELD OFF ON GALE WARNING WITH MARGINAL NATURE OF GALES ON TUESDAY.

WAVES WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 5 FT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. WIND
GUSTS ABOVE 25 KT ON WEDNESDAY...BUT DIMINISHING THROUGHOUT THE
DAY AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA...COMING BELOW 25
KT BY THE AFTERNOON. WINDS INCREASE TO ABOVE 25 KT AGAIN ON
THURSDAY...BUT DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT...AND FOR THE MOST
PART...SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 25 KT THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
QPF OF 1 TO 2 INCHES...NEARLY ALL RAIN...EXPECTED FROM LATE TONIGHT
INTO TUE NIGHT...WITH POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER END LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3
INCHES.

MODERATE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS AND FLASHY SMALL STREAMS. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF FLASH
FLOODING ACROSS NE NJ WITH ANY TRAINING OF HEAVY RAIN/EMBEDDED
CONVECTION AS 1 HR FFG IS ONLY AROUND 3/4 OF AN INCH.

NOTE...MINOR FLOODING CONTINUE ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER.
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY CAUSE WATER LEVELS TO
CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE
FLOOD LEVEL TO BE REACHED. MONITOR THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS FROM
NWS TAUNTON MA.

THEREAFTER...NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL DEPARTURES OF 1 TO 1 1/2 FT NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING THIS TUE EVENING/NIGHT HIGH TIDE. TIDAL GUIDANCE APPEARS
TO BE A BIT UNDERDONE...BUT EVEN WITH THAT THINKING THAT ANY
COASTAL FLOOD IMPACTS WOULD BE MINOR. SOME MINOR BEACH EROSION
ISSUES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES OF LI DUE TO
HIGH SURF TUE AFT/NIGHT AS WELL.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 7 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ330-
     335-338-340-345.
     GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ330-335-338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-
     340-345.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
     GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NV
NEAR TERM...JMC/NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...JMC/JP/NV
HYDROLOGY...JP/NV
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







000
FXUS61 KOKX 150014
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
814 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY
AND THEN MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY...THEN REMAINS NORTH OF THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WEAKENS
AND MOVES EAST FRIDAY...ALLOWING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO APPROACH
FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS WEEKEND. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
DEEP TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS PUSHES INTO THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT...WHILE ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD FRONT WITH
PRIMARY LOW PUSHES INTO WESTERN NY/PA OVERNIGHT. DEEP LAYERED
MOISTURE INCREASES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUE MORNING AS INCREASING
FORCING/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.

PERSISTENT MOIST ONSHORE FLOW UNDER A STRONG INVERSION SHOULD
INCREASE LIKELIHOOD FOR STRATUS OVERNIGHT. PATERNAL FOR ADVECTION
FOG AND DRIZZLE WILL INCREASE ALONG COASTAL AREAS OF CT/LI LATE
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT...BUT A STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW
LEAVES SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW DENSE FOG WILL BECOME. LATER SHIFT
WILL HAVE TO RE-EVALUATE NEED FOR A DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

BREEZY AND UNSEASONABLY MID CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. S
WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS LIKELY ACROSS COASTAL
AREAS...INCREASING TOWARDS DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE STRONG AND DEEP NEUTRALLY
TILTED UPPER TROUGH TROUGH SLIDING FROM THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY TO APPALACHIANS ON TUESDAY...AND THEN NEGATIVELY TILTING
THROUGH THE NE TUESDAY NIGHT. ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
APPROACHING THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON AND CROSSING IN THE
EVENING.

INCREASING CHANCE FOR RAIN TUESDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON
WITH INCREASING LIFT AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. IN ADDITION...WITH A 65 TO 75 KT LOW LEVEL
JET AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE IN THE
MORNING INTO AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH
LIKELY...HIGHEST COAST...BUT AN INVERSION SHOULD LIMIT GUSTS
MAINLY INTO THE 30S. ANY HEAVY RAIN MAY HAVE ENOUGH DOWNWARD
MOMENTUM TO OVERCOME THE INVERSION AND BRING A HIGHER FRACTION OF
THE LOW LEVEL JET TO THE SURFACE.

WITH GULF MOISTURE TAP...INCREASING FORCING/MOISTURE  CONVERGENCE
MID MORNING INTO AFTERNOON...AND WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY...AREAS
OF HEAVY RAIN AND EMBEDDED CONVECTION ARE POSSIBLE. SEE HYDROLOGY
SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS ON RAINFALL AND ASSOCIATED IMPACTS.

MAIN CONCERN FOR TUE AFT/EVE IS THAT MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT IN SIGNALING A SYNOPTICALLY FORCED SQUALL LINE
TRAVERSING THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING...WHICH
WOULD HAVE POTENTIAL TO BRING DOWN GUSTS OF 50+ MPH. THIS WILL
HAVE TO BE HANDLED BY SHORT FUSE ADVISORY/WARNING.

STRONG COLD ADVECTION EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT TUE
EVENING. WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH AND GUSTS 35 TO 45 MPH LIKELY TUESDAY
NIGHT IN ITS WAKE. ADDITIONALLY...MODELS CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARDS A
TRANSITION TO WINTRY PRECIP IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT BEFORE
ENDING...PARTICULARLY ACROSS NW ZONES. WITH SHORTWAVE INSTABILITY
COMING THROUGH...A BRIEF BURST OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION TUE EVENING N&W OF NYC. THIS POSES POTENTIAL FOR
SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION...AND WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE
20S SOME ICY ROAD CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.

LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO VERY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH THE GROWING FOR THE ENTIRE
COASTAL AREAS AND PORTIONS OF INTERIOR NE NJ/LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY...THERE IS POTENTIAL THAT FREEZE CONDITIONS COULD BE MET FOR
MUCH OF THIS AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE BIG STORY DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE TEMPERATURES...AS THEY
WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...AND ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING HOW WARM IT HAS BEEN ACROSS THE AREA RECENTLY. WEDNESDAY
WILL FEATURE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BUILDS IN. 850 TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL
RANGE FROM AROUND -8C INLAND...TO -3C TO -6C ACROSS LONG ISLAND.
THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH LOWER 50S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NYC METRO
AREA.

THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS WEST OF THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...AND THEN TRACK TO THE NORTH AND EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW A NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. WINDS INCREASE A
BIT OVERNIGHT FOR EASTERN SECTIONS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO THE HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENING OVER NEW
ENGLAND. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY OF
THE WEEK. WITH WINDS INCREASING OVERNIGHT...THEY WILL NOT BE AS COLD
AS THEY COULD POTENTIALLY BE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OUTLYING AREAS.
WIDESPREAD LOWS BELOW FREEZING ARE EXPECTED ACROSS AREAS WELL
INLAND. WHEREAS TEMPERATURES IN MIDDLE 30S ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NYC
METRO AND COASTAL SECTIONS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME ISOLATED SPOTS
MAY DIP TO FREEZING IN THESE AREAS. CONTINUED TO MENTION PATCHY
FROST ACROSS ACROSS CERTAIN AREAS. THERE ARE SOME AREAS OF EASTERN
LONG ISLAND THAT ARE FORECAST TO DROP BELOW FREEZING...BUT DID NOT
MENTION FROST HERE AS WINDS OVERNIGHT PICK UP A BIT.

QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY PUSH TO THE NORTHEAST EAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY MEAN A WARMING TREND AFTER WEDNESDAY. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE LOW APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE
WEST FRIDAY NIGHT. ALSO...WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFFSHORE AND
HEAD NORTHEAST. 00Z ECMWF AND TO SOME EXTENT...THE 12Z GFS TRY TO
PHASE THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS. IN BOTH CASES...THE
RESULTING COASTAL ARE TOO FAR OFFSHORE...AND ONLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IS IN THE FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL
FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...THEN
SLOWLY CROSSES THE TRI-STATE TUESDAY.

VFR TO GET STARTED...CONDITIONS THEN DETERIORATE TO IFR BE LATE
THIS EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT FROM S TO N...EXCEPTION IS KSWF WHICH
SHOULD ONLY GET DOWN TO MVFR OVERNIGHT...THEN IFR AROUND 12Z
TUESDAY. IFR SHOULD THEN CONTINUE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON
WEST...EARLY EVENING EAST. THERE IS SOME CHANCE OF LFR/VLIFR
ESPECIALLY AT COASTAL TERMINALS AND KHPN.

LLWS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY ALL TERMINALS BUT KSWF WITH WINDS 50-65KT
1000-2000FT - DEPTH AND SPEED VARY BASED ON LOCATION. FOR NOW
CONTINUING WITH ENDING GUSTS EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN RE-
INTRODUCING AROUND MID-MORNING.

CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE OF IFR...LLWS AND GUSTS IS
HIGH...CONFIDENCE IN TIMING FOR ALL THREE IS LOW.

ISOLATED TSRA POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS MAINLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON -
CONFIDENCE IN THIS AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN
THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF START/END TIME OF IFR...LLWS AND
GUSTS COULD BE OFF +/- 3 HOURS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF START/END TIME OF IFR...LLWS AND
GUSTS COULD BE OFF +/- 3 HOURS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF START/END TIME OF IFR...LLWS AND
GUSTS COULD BE OFF +/- 3 HOURS.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF START/END TIME OF IFR...LLWS AND
GUSTS COULD BE OFF +/- 3 HOURS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF START/END TIME OF IFR...LLWS AND
GUSTS COULD BE OFF +/- 3 HOURS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF START/END TIME OF IFR...LLWS AND
GUSTS COULD BE OFF +/- 3 HOURS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT...PERIOD OF -SN OR -SN/PL AS PRECIPITATION ENDS NW
TERMINALS...WITH PERIOD -SNRA POSSIBLE REMAINDER. NW-N WIND G
35-40KT POSSIBLE.
.WEDNESDAY...VFR. N WIND G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.THURSDAY...VFR. E WIND G 20-25KT POSSIBLE.
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.SATURDAY...LOW CHANCE OF -SHRA...WITH MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IF
-SHRA OCCURS.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SCA MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH THE NIGHT SOUND HARBOR AND
BAYS WITH THE NEXT UPDATE.

POTENTIAL FOR FOG ON THE WATERS INCREASES TONIGHT AND CONTINUES INTO
TUESDAY. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED WITH EXPECTATION OF
VSBY TO DROP BELOW 1 NM OVERNIGHT WITH CONTINUED MOIST FLOW.

SCA GUST ON THE NEARSHORE WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW SCA LATE
THIS EVENING AS MIXING DECREASES...BUT SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MARGINAL GUSTS AND
SEAS.

GALES POSSIBLE TUESDAY FOR OCEAN WATERS AND PERHAPS ALL WATERS AS
STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES...BUT BETTER CHANCE WILL BE IN WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION. HAVE
HELD OFF ON GALE WARNING WITH MARGINAL NATURE OF GALES ON TUESDAY.

WAVES WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 5 FT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. WIND
GUSTS ABOVE 25 KT ON WEDNESDAY...BUT DIMINISHING THROUGHOUT THE
DAY AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA...COMING BELOW 25
KT BY THE AFTERNOON. WINDS INCREASE TO ABOVE 25 KT AGAIN ON
THURSDAY...BUT DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT...AND FOR THE MOST
PART...SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 25 KT THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
QPF OF 1 TO 2 INCHES...NEARLY ALL RAIN...EXPECTED FROM LATE TONIGHT
INTO TUE NIGHT...WITH POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER END LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3
INCHES.

MODERATE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS AND FLASHY SMALL STREAMS. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF FLASH
FLOODING ACROSS NE NJ WITH ANY TRAINING OF HEAVY RAIN/EMBEDDED
CONVECTION AS 1 HR FFG IS ONLY AROUND 3/4 OF AN INCH.

NOTE...MINOR FLOODING CONTINUE ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER.
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY CAUSE WATER LEVELS TO
CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE
FLOOD LEVEL TO BE REACHED. MONITOR THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS FROM
NWS TAUNTON MA.

THEREAFTER...NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL DEPARTURES OF 1 TO 1 1/2 FT NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING THIS TUE EVENING/NIGHT HIGH TIDE. TIDAL GUIDANCE APPEARS
TO BE A BIT UNDERDONE...BUT EVEN WITH THAT THINKING THAT ANY
COASTAL FLOOD IMPACTS WOULD BE MINOR. SOME MINOR BEACH EROSION
ISSUES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES OF LI DUE TO
HIGH SURF TUE AFT/NIGHT AS WELL.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 7 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ330-
     335-338-340-345.
     GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ330-335-338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-
     335-338-340-345.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR ANZ350-353-355.
     GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NV
NEAR TERM...JMC/NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...JMC/JP/NV
HYDROLOGY...JP/NV
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...









000
FXUS61 KALY 150013
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
813 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. THIS
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY WITH PERIODS OF RAIN...WHICH
COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES. IT WILL TURN DRAMATICALLY COLDER BEHIND
THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THURSDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER
EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
...RENSSELAER COUNTY HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE FLOOD WATCH DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING IN TROY AS RAIN AND SNOW MELT BUILDS
DOWNSTREAM THROUGH THE HUDSON RIVER TOMORROW AND WEDNESDAY...

AS OF 8 PM EDT...A LINE OF SHOWERS HAS REACHED THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND FAST APPROACHING THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. A
BRIEF PERIOD OF OF MOD-HVY RAIN...AND WIND GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THIS LINE. WE EXPECT THIS LINE TO CONTINUE
MOVING EAST...ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND
CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS...AND PERHAPS AS FAR
S/E AS THE LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION. THIS LINE SHOULD THEN
GRADUALLY WEAKEN...SHIFT EVENTUALLY LIFT BACK NORTH AS THE MAIN
FORCING SHIFTS INTO SE CANADA. HAVE RAISED POPS IN THESE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS TO CATEGORICAL/LIKELY FOR THIS EVENING.

OTHERWISE...LATER TONIGHT...MORE RAIN SHOULD BUILD EAST AND BY
SUNRISE...THERE SHOULD BE RAIN AT LEAST OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE REGION...WITH SCATTERED COVERAGE OVER EASTERN NY AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND. THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION COULD SCRAPE
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS TONIGHT AS WELL.

RELATIVELY STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
RAIN WILL HELP TEMPERATURES FALL TOWARD WET BULBS...BUT STILL ONLY
INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STRONG UPPER IMPULSE IN THE CENTRAL U.S. CATCHES UP WITH THE FRONT
CURRENTLY FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE OH/TN VALLEY
AND RACES EASTWARD THROUGH TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT.
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY OVER OUR REGION NOW SHOULD DECREASE AS
WIDESPREAD RAIN DEVELOPS. HOWEVER...SOME INSTABILITY ROOTED IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER COULD SUPPORT CONVECTION ALONG THE COLD
FRONT...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE EXTREME FORCING MECHANISMS
EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE. THE BOUNDARY LAYER JET ENERGY SHOULD
RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN...ESPECIALLY AS THE COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS
THE HUDSON RIVER INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT
OF AROUND 20C IN A DISTANCE OF LESS THAN 200 MILES IS QUITE
EXTREME AND QUITE UNUSUAL.

THE RAPID EASTWARD MOVEMENT SHOULD SUPPORT SOME SHALLOW ENHANCED
LINE OF CONVECTION...MAYBE WITHOUT THUNDER...BUT SOME VERY GUSTY
WINDS...MAYBE EVEN SOME ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE IN HIGHER
TERRAIN FROM THE TACONICS THROUGH WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. GRADIENT
SOUTHERLY WINDS COULD APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS IN THE SOUTHERN
GREEN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN BERKSHIRES...BUT MORE LIKELY THE
POTENTIALLY ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS COULD BE MORE BRIEF...
ASSOCIATED WITH SOME SHALLOW CONVECTION SO NO ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME. STILL SUGGESTING 40 TO 45 MPH GUSTS IN SOME AREAS TOMORROW.

TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN MOST
AREAS...THEN DROP RAPIDLY IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE COLD AIR SPREADS
EAST. THERE SHOULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH LINGERING PRECIPITATION AND THE COLD AIR IN PLACE SO
THAT THERE COULD BE A BRIEF MIX TO SLEET AND EVENTUALLY SOME SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY IN MOST AREAS BEFORE ENDING BY MIDNIGHT. HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...EASTERN CATSKILLS...SOUTHERN
GREEN MOUNTAINS AND BERKSHIRES COULD SEE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW.
EVEN VALLEY AREAS COULD SEE A LIGHT DUSTING OF SLEET AND SNOW. LOW
TEMPERATURES BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE IN THE 20S...WITH A
FEW TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS. IT SHOULD BE QUITE BREEZY TUESDAY
NIGHT AS WELL.

ON WEDNESDAY...IT SHOULD BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY BUT STILL
BREEZY WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION. STILL...WITH STRONG SUN...HIGHS
SHOULD GET SOLIDLY INTO THE 40S TO NEAR 50...BUT A LITTLE COOLER
IN HIGHER TERRAIN. WINDS EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERS ITSELF OVER THE REGION AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL ONCE
AGAIN INTO THE 20S...TEENS IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. WARM
ADVECTION BEGINS THURSDAY AND WITH SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH THE 50S...AROUND 50 NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST SHOULD START OUT WITH
GENERALLY PLEASANT CONDITIONS...WITH NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY INCREASES AS
WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND...AS THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION OF AN UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES OR OHIO VALLEY REGION
REACHING THE AREA...ALONG WITH SOME POSSIBLE INFLUX OF SOME
GULF/ATLANTIC MOISTURE...CREATING CLOUDS AND SOME RAIN SHOWERS.
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS COULD LINGER INTO SUNDAY BEFORE
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT BY MONDAY.

HERE ARE SOME SPECIFICS...

THU NT-FRI...A LOW LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD EXTEND INTO
THE REGION FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...KEEPING OUR REGION
GENERALLY DRY...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY SKIES. HOWEVER...THERE IS
SOME POSSIBILITY THAT LOW CLOUDS BEGIN TO DEVELOP OR EXPAND INTO AT
LEAST SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE REGION BY LATE FRI OR FRI NT AS THE
ATLANTIC FETCH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR
SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH FRI MAX TEMPS REACHING AROUND OR SLIGHTLY
OVER 60 IN THE VALLEYS...WITH 50S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. THU NT/FRI
AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 20S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...AND LOWER
30S WITHIN VALLEY AREAS.

FRI NT-SUN...MOST MODELS AND ENSEMBLE SUITES SUGGEST THAT A
SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION BRINGS SOMEWHAT
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE REGION...ESP ON SAT...WITH SOME RAIN
SHOWERS. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ALSO IS EXPECTED TO PASS OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. THESE TWO DISTURBANCES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
UNPHASED AT THIS TIME. IN ADDITION...THE SOUTHERN DISTURBANCE MAY
LIMIT THE MOISTURE AVAILABILITY TO THE NORTHERN SYSTEM.
NEVERTHELESS...WILL KEEP CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS FOR SAT...TAPERING TO
MAINLY SLIGHT CHC/LOW CHC FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE BULK OF UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE SHIFTS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR...OR A BIT BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS SAT-SUN
DUE TO THE EXPECTATION FOR LIMITED SUNSHINE...WITH MAXES MAINLY IN
THE 50S...AND OVERNIGHT MINS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. SLIGHTLY
MILDER BY MONDAY...WITH MAX TEMPS REACHING AROUND 60 IN VALLEYS AND
50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT AND
TUESDAY...PASSING ACROSS THE TAF SITES DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...AND WILL
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. SOME
SLEET OR WET SNOW MAY MIX IN AT KGFL/KALB/KPSF TOWARD 00Z/WED.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MIDNIGHT...ALTHOUGH
SHOWERS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST MAY PRODUCE SOME MVFR VSBYS AT
KGFL. CONDITIONS SHOULD DETERIORATE INTO THE MVFR RANGE AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS LOWER CLOUDS AND SOME SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE SPREAD ACROSS
THE TAF SITES. SOME IFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KPSF AS
WELL...WITH A SMALLER CHANCE AT KPOU. MAINLY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY DUE TO LOW CIGS...AND
WIDESPREAD RAIN OR SHOWERS.

STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AT 10-20 KTS
WITH SOME GUSTS 25-30 KTS...STRONGEST AT KALB DUE TO FUNNELING UP
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. THE WINDS WILL PERSIST AT 10-16 KTS WITH
SOME GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS AT KALB LATER TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL
WEAKEN AT THE SFC...SO SOME LLWS GROUPS WERE PLACED IN AT KPOU AND
KPSF AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE 2KFT AGL WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 40-50
KTS WITH THE SFC WINDS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 10 KTS. KALB
WILL REMAIN GUSTY...SO NO LLWS WAS ADDED AT THIS TIME. ON
TUESDAY...EXPECT SOUTH WINDS TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN TO 10-20 KT
WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 KT...SHIFTING INTO THE WEST/NORTHWEST WITH THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE BETWEEN 20Z-24Z.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT.WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 30.0 DEFINITE SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. THIS
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY WITH PERIODS OF RAIN...WHICH
COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES. IT WILL TURN DRAMATICALLY COLDER BEHIND
THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THURSDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER
EXPECTED.

TONIGHT...CLOUDS INCREASE AND SO DO SHOWERS. A SOAKING RAIN IS
VERY LIKELY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ALL AREAS SEEING WELL OVER
A QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL. THE RAIN SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS IN
HIGHER TERRAIN.

MUCH COLDER WEATHER WILL BE USHERED IN BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT
TUESDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY...THE SUNSHINE SHOULD RETURN BUT IT WILL BE
COLD AND BRISK.

THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK LOOKS DRY WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND
MODERATING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR THE ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY/LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA
REGION...SOUTHERN VERMONT AND THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES.

A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE DELTA DAM ON THE UPPER
MOHAWK RIVER UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...AS RECENT RAINFALL AND
SIGNIFICANT SNOW MELT IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THE RESERVOIR ABOVE FLOOD
STAGE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A RIVER FLOOD WARNING ALSO CONTINUES
FOR RIVERBANK DUE TO EXPECTED SNOW MELT AND RAIN.

OUR NORTHERN AREAS ARE STILL DEALING WITH SNOWMELT WHICH HAS
ALREADY SWELLED MANY OF THE RIVERS IN THE REGION. IT LOOKS AS IF
1-2+ INCHES OF RAINFALL WILL FALL STARTING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE HEAVIEST OF THE RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE FROM MIDDAY
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING AS THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. PRECIPITATION COULD LINGER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND END
UP AS A LITTLE SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

ALL AREAS COULD SEE PONDING OF WATER IN URBAN AREAS AND AREAS OF POOR
DRAINAGE.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 AM EDT TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ032-033-038>043-050-053-054-082>084.
MA...FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 AM EDT TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
     FOR MAZ001.
VT...FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 AM EDT TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
     FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...KL/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL/WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...SND/NAS








000
FXUS61 KBOX 142300
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
700 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING WITH IT A SOAKING RAIN FOR
TUESDAY EXITING SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY. DRIER AND MUCH
COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES MODERATING BY FRIDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY
OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
7 PM UPDATE...GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH SLOWLY AS
THE SUN SETS AND MIXING DECREASES. OTHERWISE...STARTING TO SEE
SOME HINTS OF FOG CREEPING ONTO NANTUCKET. MADE SOME MINOR EDITS
TO THE NEAR TERM GRIDS TO BETTER ACCOUNT FOR TRENDS BUT FORECAST
IS OVERALL ON TRACK.

TONIGHT...

INCREASING S WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. BLUSTERY AT
THE SURFACE BUT BELOW WIND-ADV CRITERIA WITH 25 TO 30 MPH GUSTS AT
MOST. WILL SEE THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG/DRIZZLE AS MOISTURE
CONVERGES ALONG THE NOSE OF A DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL-JET POOLING
BENEATH A DRY-AIR INVERSION ALOFT AND UNDERGOING WEAK ISENTROPIC
ASCENT MAINLY ALONG THE S-COAST. BULK OF THE RAIN STAYS WEST ALONG
WITH THE COLD FRONT.

BUT SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER OUTCOMES THIS EVENING WILL BE
DENSE FOG OR LOW CLOUDS. WITH HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR TRANSPOSED OVER
COLDER OCEAN WATERS WOULD EXPECT DENSE FOG ALONG THE S-COAST...BUT
WITH STRONG S WINDS...MECHANICAL MIXING MAY RESULT IN VERY LOW
STRATUS. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY ISSUANCE OF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR
NOW...BUT HIGHLIGHT THE THREAT IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...

COLD FRONT SURGES INTO NEW ENGLAND. ANTICIPATING A DISTINCT BAND OF
RAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.

CONTINUED STRONG S LOW-LEVEL-JET AHEAD OF THE FRONT UP TO 80 MPH AT
H925. THOUGH BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING IS LIMITED BY WARMER AIR ALOFT...
AM CONCERNED HEAVIER SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD LEND
TO PRECIP-DRAG OF FASTER WINDS TO THE SURFACE. CONSIDERING FORECAST
WEAK INSTABILITY AND SHEAR-VECTORS ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE FRONT...
ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD CONTAIN AN ISOLATED WIND THREAT.
HAVE APPENDED THE CONVECTIVE THREAT OF GUSTY WINDS TO THE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

TIGHTENING PRES-GRADIENT AND LIMITED BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING SHOULD
ALLOW FOR S WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH POTENTIALLY EXCEEDING WIND ADV
CRITERIA. MUCH LIKE TODAY...GUSTS EXCEEDING 45 MPH WILL BE ISOLATED.
FEEL THE WIND ISSUES CAN BE HANDLED BY SHORT-FUSED PRODUCTS ESP WITH
THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS. WILL NOT ISSUE A WIND ADV WITH THIS
FORECAST.

S-FETCH WILL ADVECT PWATS OF AROUND 1.5-INCHES N ALONG WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN EXCESS OF 50 DEGREES. TWO AREAS OF CONCERN:
POTENTIAL URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AND RIVER/SMALL-STREAM FLOODING ESP
FOR THE CT-RIVER VALLEY...AS WELL AS THE POSSIBILITY OF DENSE FOG
ALONG THE S-COAST WITH HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR OVER- RIDING A COLDER
OCEAN.

WILL HOIST A FLOOD WATCH FOR THE CT-VALLEY ACCORDINGLY. FURTHER
HYDROLOGICAL DISCUSSION CAN BE FOUND LATER IN THE DISCUSSION DOWN
BELOW. AS FOR THE DENSE FOG...WILL MONITOR OVERNIGHT AND UPDATE
HEADLINES CLOSER TOWARDS MORNING AS FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE
AT THIS TIME.

AS FOR COASTAL FLOODING THREATS...PLEASE SEE THE COASTAL FLOODING
PORTION OF THE AFD OUTLINING THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR SPLASHOVER
ALONG THE S-COAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE SHARP COLD FRONT...
MAINLY FOR THE EVENING PERIOD...SO WILL TABLE THE OUTCOMES BEHIND
THE FRONT FOR THE TUESDAY NIGHT DISCUSSION.

TUESDAY NIGHT...

COLD FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHALLOW COLD AIR
POURS IN VIA WESTERLY WINDS BENEATH SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER AIR ALOFT.

WILL SEE THE BOUNDARY-LAYER DESTABILIZE UP TO H9 WITH COLD-AIR
ADVECTION ALLOWING FOR THE MIX-DOWN OF FASTER MOMENTUM AND W-WIND
GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH AT THE SURFACE. WIND ADVISORIES MAY NEED TO BE
CONSIDERED...BUT AGAIN FEEL SUCH WINDS WILL BE BRIEF AND CAN BE
HANDLED WITH SHORT-FUSED PRODUCTS.

STRONG ASCENT PER RRQ AND MAIN SHORT-WAVE THROUGH THE NEGATIVELY
TILTING TROUGH SHOULD RESULT IN PRECIP ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT
WITHIN THE SHALLOW COLD AIR. BUT THIS SHOULD BE BRIEF WITH AN INFLUX
OF DRIER AIR TO THE REAR /POSSIBLY ALSO THE DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT
OFF THE BERKSHIRES WILL PRESENT LIMITATIONS/. WINTRY PRECIP TYPES
WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF NW MA INTO S NH. ACCUMULATIONS IF
ANY WILL BE JUST AROUND A TRACE. DO NOT BELIEVE WINTER WEATHER
HEADLINES ARE NECESSARY.

BIGGER CONCERN IS ON THE FLASH FREEZE POTENTIAL WITH THE IMMEDIATE
INFLUX OF COLDER AIR. COULD SEE POTENTIAL BLACK-ICE IMPACTS FOR THE
WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTE. LOWS FALLING AROUND THE UPPER-20S TO
LOW-30S BY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* QUIET WEATHER BUT MUCH COOLER WED AND THU
* TEMPERATURES START TO MODERATE FRI INTO THE WEEKEND
* UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND

14/12Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN
THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM.  OVER THE WEEKEND...PARTICULARLY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...THERE START TO BE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
THE GFS AND THE ECMWF.  THESE WILL LIKELY HAVE SOME EFFECT ON THE
TIMING OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER...BUT THESE DIFFERENCES WILL BE
RESOLVED OVER TIME.  ACROSS THE BOARD...MOST OF THE MODELS AS WELL
AS THE ENSEMBLES FOCUS ON THE SOUTHERN STREAM DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND
UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD OVER THE WEEKEND.  EXPECT THIS IS THE
LIKELIER SOLUTION GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT...BUT THERE ARE A FEW
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS/MODEL RUNS THAT ARE FOCUSING MORE ON THE NORTHERN
STREAM LOW.  SO THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT PATTERN FOR
NEXT WEEKEND...AS THERE SHOULD AT THIS TIME RANGE.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THERE COULD BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
ALONG THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT THESE SHOULD COME TO AN
END EARLY AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
THE WEATHER SHOULD BE QUIET ASIDE FROM THESE SHOWERS...BUT CHILLY
WITH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OFF THE OCEAN RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES
WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR MID APRIL.

FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES START TO MODERATE FOR MOST LOCATIONS.  HOWEVER
WITH NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS CONTINUING...EXPECT COASTAL
LOCATIONS TO REMAIN CHILLY.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AS STATED ABOVE...THIS IS LIKELY TO BE A
PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AS A PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE CAROLINAS TO NEAR THE 40/70 BENCHMARK.  THE
FIRST IS FORECAST TO MOVE WELL OUTSIDE OF THE BENCHMARK...LIKELY
BRINGING SHOWERS AND MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE EASTERN
PART OF THE REGION SATURDAY.  THE SECOND MOVES CLOSER TO THE
BENCHMARK...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGHOUT
THE REGION MONDAY.  TEMPERATURES MODERATE ENOUGH THROUGH THIS PERIOD
THAT THIS PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL AS RAIN.  THERE REMAINS
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS...AND THUS
THE RAINFALL THAT WILL NEED TO BE IRONED OUT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

00Z UPDATE...

S WINDS ANTICIPATED TO DROP OFF SLIGHTLY INCREASING LLWS THREATS
AS WINDS 2 KFT AGL OVERNIGHT WILL BE AROUND 50 KTS.

IN ADDITION TO LLWS...MAIN CONCERN FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD IS
THE DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR CIGS AROUND 1-2 KFT WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF
1/2SM FG ALONG THE S-SHORELINE TERMINALS. WITH ANY DENSE FOG WILL
LIKELY SOUP-OUT TO VV002.

COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE TERMINALS LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
EVENING EXITING OFFSHORE SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY. EXPECT
A DISTINCT BAND OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED TSRA /BETTER CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS CT-RIVER VALLEY/.
SUCH STRONGER ACTIVITY COULD YIELD AN ISOLATED WIND THREAT WITH S
WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS. OTHERWISE ON AVERAGE 15 TO 25 KT
SUSTAINED WINDS WITH 25 TO 35 KT GUSTS. EXPECT A MIX OF MVFR-IFR
CIGS AND VSBYS.

AFTER MIDNIGHT...WINDS BACK WEST AS TEMPS DROP CONSIDERABLY. WILL
SEE W-WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS AS CONDITIONS QUICKLY IMPROVE TO
VFR. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW/SLEET MIX TO THE REAR OF THE
COLD FRONT...BUT BEST CHANCES OVER NW MA AND S NH.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST ON WEDNESDAY TO VFR MOST LOCATIONS.
TYPICALLY ON NE WINDS LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP ALONG THE EAST COAST OF MA
INCLUDING KBOS. IFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE EAST COAST ARE THEN
CLIMATOLOGICALLY LIKELY FOR BOTH DAYS.  HOWEVER...MODELS ARE VERY
DRY ON WEDNESDAY...SO THIS MAY NOT OCCUR.  MOISTURE RETURNS THURSDAY
THOUGH.

FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LOW CLOUDS/IFR CONDITIONS MAY
LINGER ALONG THE EAST COAST WITH CONTINUED NE FLOW.  OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.  MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY PARTICULARLY
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA IN RAIN/FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

GALE WARNINGS FOR STRONG S WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT FOR TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...CONTINUING INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS WINDS BACK OUT OF THE WEST WITH PASSAGE OF
THE COLD FRONT REMAINING IN EXCESS OF GALE-FORCE. WAVE HEIGHTS UP
TO 10 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE OUTER WATERS.

ALSO WORTHY OF NOTE...AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT EXPECT WIDESPREAD
RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

AND ALSO BEGINNING TONIGHT...THERE IS ALSO A GREATER POTENTIAL
FOR SEEING DENSE FOG ESP ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WITH VISIBILITIES
DOWN TO A HALF-MILE OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. NORTHWESTERLY GALES SLACKEN AS COLD
FRONT MOVES EAST TOWARDS THE MARITIMES.  WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND THEN THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT.  SEAS
DIMINISH SLOWLY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND BUT WILL
REMAIN ABOVE 5 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS
REMAIN CLOSE TO OR ABOVE SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST ON THE OUTER WATERS.

SATURDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS
MAY INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE WATERS.
MODERATE PROBABILITY OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES BEING NEEDED. IN
ADDITION...VISIBILITIES MAY BE LIMITED IN RAIN/FOG.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY.
THIS IS DUE TO THE EXPECTATION THAT SWOLLEN RIVER CONDITIONS AS A
RESULT OF UPSTREAM SNOWMELT COMBINING WITH THE BASIN AVERAGE 1.5
INCHES OF RAINFALL ANTICIPATED TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF MAINSTEM RIVERS AND ADJOINING CREEKS
AND STREAMS. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR URBAN AND POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING THROUGHOUT THE WATCH AREA.

FLOOD WARNINGS ARE ALREADY IN EFFECT ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER
FOR HARTFORD AND MIDDLE HADDAM. THOSE WITH INTERESTS ALONG LOWER
REACHES OF CT RIVER SHOULD PAY ATTENTION TO THE LATEST FORECASTS
AND CURRENT WATER LEVELS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING 25 TO 35 MPH WILL PRODUCE A STORM-SURGE
OF 1 TO 2 FEET ALONG THE SOUTH-COAST PRIOR TO THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY. COMBINED WITH TUESDAY
EVENINGS HIGH TIDE...AND THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SPLASHOVER
AND MINOR COASTAL FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS AND ROADWAYS ALONG
THE SOUTH-COAST.

THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME TO WARRANT THE
ISSUANCE OF A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT / ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTH-
COAST. WILL EVALUATE WITH LATER FORECASTS AND HIGHLIGHT IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     CTZ002-003.
MA...FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     MAZ002>004-008>011-026.
NH...FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     NHZ011-012-015.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM TUESDAY TO 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ232-233-235-237-250-254>256.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ230-231-234-236-
     251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...RLG/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...RLG/SIPPRELL
MARINE...RLG/SIPPRELL
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




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