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000
FXUS61 KALY 031016
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
616 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TODAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER...ALONG WITH COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY TO THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF RAIN OR
SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
90. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 615 AM EDT...SKIES REMAIN MAINLY SUNNY ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE LOWER/MID 40S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...WITH MAINLY 50S ELSEWHERE.

EXPECT MAINLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY...WITH TEMPS ABOUT 2-3 DEGREES
WARMER THAN THURSDAY...REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 IN MOST
VALLEYS...AND 70-75 ACROSS MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH SOME
OF THE HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT
MAY ONLY REACH THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE SATURDAY FORECAST...

FRI NT...CLEAR AND COOL TO START...THEN INCREASING/THICKENING
CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 50S FOR MOST
AREAS...EXCEPT PERHAPS 45-50 ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.

SAT-SAT NT...IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE INTERACTION BETWEEN TWO UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES WILL NEGATIVELY IMPACT OUR WEATHER FOR AT LEAST A
PORTION OF SATURDAY. THE SOUTHERN IMPULSE APPEARS TO SHEAR OUT AND
LIFT FURTHER NORTHWARD...BRINGING SHOWERS OR EVEN A PERIOD OF
STEADY RAIN TO AREAS NEAR AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
90...ESP FROM AROUND MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. NEARLY
ALL NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED NORTHWARD WITH THIS FEATURE AND
ASSOCIATED RAINFALL...ALTHOUGH THE GFS APPEARS MOST AGGRESSIVE
WITH QPF...AS IT IMPLIES A FAIRLY SOAKING RAINFALL FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION. THE GFS LATELY HAS BEEN TOO WET WITH QPF...SO HAVE SIDED
CLOSER TO A LIGHTER NAM/ECMWF BLEND OF QPF. NEVERTHELESS...THIS
STILL WOULD GIVE A PERIOD OF STEADY LIGHT/MODERATE RAIN TO AT
LEAST THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...AGAIN
MAINLY FROM MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY/MID AFTERNOON. THE CAPITAL
REGION AND BERKSHIRES WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THIS
POTENTIAL STEADIER RAINFALL...WITH LIKELY POPS INDICATED FROM
ABOUT I-90 SOUTH. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FUTURE MODEL TRENDS TO SEE
IF THIS STEADIER RAIN SHIELD TRENDS EVEN FURTHER NORTH...OR
ACTUALLY BACKS SOUTHWARD YET AGAIN. IT APPEARS THAT THE TIMING OF
THIS SOUTHERN IMPULSE MAY BE JUST QUICK ENOUGH FOR THE STEADIER
RAIN TO TAPER OFF BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...ESP CLOSER TO
I-90...AND POSSIBLY AROUND SUNSET EVEN TO THE SOUTH. SO...DESPITE
SOME POTENTIALLY WET WEATHER DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...THERE
REMAINS A CHANCE THAT RAIN ENDS BY OR SHORTLY AFTER NIGHTFALL. THE
NORTHERN IMPULSE...ALTHOUGH STILL STRONG...SHOULD MOVE ACROSS
LATER SAT NT OR EARLY SUNDAY. HOWEVER...MUCH OF THE MOISTURE WILL
BE SHUNTED EAST OF THIS SECOND IMPULSE BY THE LEAD ONE...AND THE
CURRENT TIMING WOULD ALSO BRING IT THROUGH AT NIGHT WITH MINIMAL
INSTABILITY...THEREFORE HAVE NOT INDICATED ANY THUNDER OR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS FOR LATER SAT NT.

WITH THE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TOWARD MORE CLOUDS AND SOME
RAIN...HAVE ALSO LOWERED MAX TEMPS...RATHER SIGNIFICANTLY...WITH
ONLY LOWER/MID 70S EXPECTED FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-90...AND 65-70 TO
THE SOUTH. AGAIN...DEPENDING ON THE NORTHERN SHIELD OF STEADIER
RAIN...MAX TEMPS COULD BE ADJUSTED UP OR DOWN YET AGAIN. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT...SHOULD THE STEADIER RAIN PERSIST LONGER AND
FURTHER NORTH...THAT SOME AREAS MAY ONLY REMAIN IN THE LOWER/MID
60S ON SATURDAY. FOR SAT NT...DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY CLEARING
DEVELOPS...AND IF SAT MAX TEMPS REMAIN ON THE COOLER SIDE...IT
MAY BE QUITE CHILLY AS A BRIEF WINDOW OF DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING ENSUES. EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID 50S IN
MANY AREAS...ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME 40S...ESP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT AND INTO THE BERKSHIRES. AREAS OF FOG
COULD FORM LATE AT NIGHT.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...THE SECOND IMPULSE SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION IN THE MORNING...WITH RISING MID TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS IN
ITS WAKE. HOWEVER...THE ASSOCIATED COLD POOL MAY STILL BE CLOSE
ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO TO DEVELOP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN VT LATER
SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...SLIGHT CHC POPS
HAVE BEEN INDICATED IN THIS AREA. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY WARMER
WITH MAX TEMPS REACHING THE LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MAINLY CLEAR FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH MIN TEMPS
FALLING INTO THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO START OFF DRY AS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.
THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL. EXPECT HIGHS ON MONDAY TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S
WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

A RETURN TO UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WHILE A COASTAL SYSTEM MOVES
NORTHEAST ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER
80S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL PROVIDE MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE
INCREASING CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA ON SATURDAY.

WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT TODAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY TO THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF RAIN OR
SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
90. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. THEN...LOW PRESSURE
PASSING SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MAINLY LIGHT
RAIN FOR AREAS NEAR AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90.
RAINFALL AMTS IN THIS REGION SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM ONE
TENTH...TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS
ARE POSSIBLE...ESP ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS.
FURTHER NORTH...RAINFALL AMTS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER ONE
TENTH OF AN INCH.

RIVER LEVELS SHOULD GENERALLY FALL TODAY THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY...THEN MAY HOLD STEADY OR RISE SLIGHTLY SAT AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE RAIN.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IRL/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/IRL/KL
HYDROLOGY...IRL/KL




000
FXUS61 KALY 031016
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
616 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TODAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER...ALONG WITH COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY TO THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF RAIN OR
SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
90. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 615 AM EDT...SKIES REMAIN MAINLY SUNNY ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE LOWER/MID 40S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...WITH MAINLY 50S ELSEWHERE.

EXPECT MAINLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY...WITH TEMPS ABOUT 2-3 DEGREES
WARMER THAN THURSDAY...REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 IN MOST
VALLEYS...AND 70-75 ACROSS MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH SOME
OF THE HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT
MAY ONLY REACH THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE SATURDAY FORECAST...

FRI NT...CLEAR AND COOL TO START...THEN INCREASING/THICKENING
CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 50S FOR MOST
AREAS...EXCEPT PERHAPS 45-50 ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.

SAT-SAT NT...IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE INTERACTION BETWEEN TWO UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES WILL NEGATIVELY IMPACT OUR WEATHER FOR AT LEAST A
PORTION OF SATURDAY. THE SOUTHERN IMPULSE APPEARS TO SHEAR OUT AND
LIFT FURTHER NORTHWARD...BRINGING SHOWERS OR EVEN A PERIOD OF
STEADY RAIN TO AREAS NEAR AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
90...ESP FROM AROUND MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. NEARLY
ALL NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED NORTHWARD WITH THIS FEATURE AND
ASSOCIATED RAINFALL...ALTHOUGH THE GFS APPEARS MOST AGGRESSIVE
WITH QPF...AS IT IMPLIES A FAIRLY SOAKING RAINFALL FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION. THE GFS LATELY HAS BEEN TOO WET WITH QPF...SO HAVE SIDED
CLOSER TO A LIGHTER NAM/ECMWF BLEND OF QPF. NEVERTHELESS...THIS
STILL WOULD GIVE A PERIOD OF STEADY LIGHT/MODERATE RAIN TO AT
LEAST THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...AGAIN
MAINLY FROM MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY/MID AFTERNOON. THE CAPITAL
REGION AND BERKSHIRES WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THIS
POTENTIAL STEADIER RAINFALL...WITH LIKELY POPS INDICATED FROM
ABOUT I-90 SOUTH. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FUTURE MODEL TRENDS TO SEE
IF THIS STEADIER RAIN SHIELD TRENDS EVEN FURTHER NORTH...OR
ACTUALLY BACKS SOUTHWARD YET AGAIN. IT APPEARS THAT THE TIMING OF
THIS SOUTHERN IMPULSE MAY BE JUST QUICK ENOUGH FOR THE STEADIER
RAIN TO TAPER OFF BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...ESP CLOSER TO
I-90...AND POSSIBLY AROUND SUNSET EVEN TO THE SOUTH. SO...DESPITE
SOME POTENTIALLY WET WEATHER DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...THERE
REMAINS A CHANCE THAT RAIN ENDS BY OR SHORTLY AFTER NIGHTFALL. THE
NORTHERN IMPULSE...ALTHOUGH STILL STRONG...SHOULD MOVE ACROSS
LATER SAT NT OR EARLY SUNDAY. HOWEVER...MUCH OF THE MOISTURE WILL
BE SHUNTED EAST OF THIS SECOND IMPULSE BY THE LEAD ONE...AND THE
CURRENT TIMING WOULD ALSO BRING IT THROUGH AT NIGHT WITH MINIMAL
INSTABILITY...THEREFORE HAVE NOT INDICATED ANY THUNDER OR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS FOR LATER SAT NT.

WITH THE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TOWARD MORE CLOUDS AND SOME
RAIN...HAVE ALSO LOWERED MAX TEMPS...RATHER SIGNIFICANTLY...WITH
ONLY LOWER/MID 70S EXPECTED FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-90...AND 65-70 TO
THE SOUTH. AGAIN...DEPENDING ON THE NORTHERN SHIELD OF STEADIER
RAIN...MAX TEMPS COULD BE ADJUSTED UP OR DOWN YET AGAIN. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT...SHOULD THE STEADIER RAIN PERSIST LONGER AND
FURTHER NORTH...THAT SOME AREAS MAY ONLY REMAIN IN THE LOWER/MID
60S ON SATURDAY. FOR SAT NT...DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY CLEARING
DEVELOPS...AND IF SAT MAX TEMPS REMAIN ON THE COOLER SIDE...IT
MAY BE QUITE CHILLY AS A BRIEF WINDOW OF DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING ENSUES. EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID 50S IN
MANY AREAS...ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME 40S...ESP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT AND INTO THE BERKSHIRES. AREAS OF FOG
COULD FORM LATE AT NIGHT.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...THE SECOND IMPULSE SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION IN THE MORNING...WITH RISING MID TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS IN
ITS WAKE. HOWEVER...THE ASSOCIATED COLD POOL MAY STILL BE CLOSE
ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO TO DEVELOP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN VT LATER
SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...SLIGHT CHC POPS
HAVE BEEN INDICATED IN THIS AREA. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY WARMER
WITH MAX TEMPS REACHING THE LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MAINLY CLEAR FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH MIN TEMPS
FALLING INTO THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO START OFF DRY AS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.
THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL. EXPECT HIGHS ON MONDAY TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S
WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

A RETURN TO UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WHILE A COASTAL SYSTEM MOVES
NORTHEAST ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER
80S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL PROVIDE MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE
INCREASING CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA ON SATURDAY.

WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT TODAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY TO THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF RAIN OR
SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
90. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. THEN...LOW PRESSURE
PASSING SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MAINLY LIGHT
RAIN FOR AREAS NEAR AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90.
RAINFALL AMTS IN THIS REGION SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM ONE
TENTH...TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS
ARE POSSIBLE...ESP ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS.
FURTHER NORTH...RAINFALL AMTS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER ONE
TENTH OF AN INCH.

RIVER LEVELS SHOULD GENERALLY FALL TODAY THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY...THEN MAY HOLD STEADY OR RISE SLIGHTLY SAT AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE RAIN.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IRL/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/IRL/KL
HYDROLOGY...IRL/KL




000
FXUS61 KALY 031016
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
616 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TODAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER...ALONG WITH COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY TO THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF RAIN OR
SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
90. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 615 AM EDT...SKIES REMAIN MAINLY SUNNY ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE LOWER/MID 40S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...WITH MAINLY 50S ELSEWHERE.

EXPECT MAINLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY...WITH TEMPS ABOUT 2-3 DEGREES
WARMER THAN THURSDAY...REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 IN MOST
VALLEYS...AND 70-75 ACROSS MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH SOME
OF THE HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT
MAY ONLY REACH THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE SATURDAY FORECAST...

FRI NT...CLEAR AND COOL TO START...THEN INCREASING/THICKENING
CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 50S FOR MOST
AREAS...EXCEPT PERHAPS 45-50 ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.

SAT-SAT NT...IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE INTERACTION BETWEEN TWO UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES WILL NEGATIVELY IMPACT OUR WEATHER FOR AT LEAST A
PORTION OF SATURDAY. THE SOUTHERN IMPULSE APPEARS TO SHEAR OUT AND
LIFT FURTHER NORTHWARD...BRINGING SHOWERS OR EVEN A PERIOD OF
STEADY RAIN TO AREAS NEAR AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
90...ESP FROM AROUND MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. NEARLY
ALL NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED NORTHWARD WITH THIS FEATURE AND
ASSOCIATED RAINFALL...ALTHOUGH THE GFS APPEARS MOST AGGRESSIVE
WITH QPF...AS IT IMPLIES A FAIRLY SOAKING RAINFALL FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION. THE GFS LATELY HAS BEEN TOO WET WITH QPF...SO HAVE SIDED
CLOSER TO A LIGHTER NAM/ECMWF BLEND OF QPF. NEVERTHELESS...THIS
STILL WOULD GIVE A PERIOD OF STEADY LIGHT/MODERATE RAIN TO AT
LEAST THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...AGAIN
MAINLY FROM MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY/MID AFTERNOON. THE CAPITAL
REGION AND BERKSHIRES WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THIS
POTENTIAL STEADIER RAINFALL...WITH LIKELY POPS INDICATED FROM
ABOUT I-90 SOUTH. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FUTURE MODEL TRENDS TO SEE
IF THIS STEADIER RAIN SHIELD TRENDS EVEN FURTHER NORTH...OR
ACTUALLY BACKS SOUTHWARD YET AGAIN. IT APPEARS THAT THE TIMING OF
THIS SOUTHERN IMPULSE MAY BE JUST QUICK ENOUGH FOR THE STEADIER
RAIN TO TAPER OFF BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...ESP CLOSER TO
I-90...AND POSSIBLY AROUND SUNSET EVEN TO THE SOUTH. SO...DESPITE
SOME POTENTIALLY WET WEATHER DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...THERE
REMAINS A CHANCE THAT RAIN ENDS BY OR SHORTLY AFTER NIGHTFALL. THE
NORTHERN IMPULSE...ALTHOUGH STILL STRONG...SHOULD MOVE ACROSS
LATER SAT NT OR EARLY SUNDAY. HOWEVER...MUCH OF THE MOISTURE WILL
BE SHUNTED EAST OF THIS SECOND IMPULSE BY THE LEAD ONE...AND THE
CURRENT TIMING WOULD ALSO BRING IT THROUGH AT NIGHT WITH MINIMAL
INSTABILITY...THEREFORE HAVE NOT INDICATED ANY THUNDER OR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS FOR LATER SAT NT.

WITH THE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TOWARD MORE CLOUDS AND SOME
RAIN...HAVE ALSO LOWERED MAX TEMPS...RATHER SIGNIFICANTLY...WITH
ONLY LOWER/MID 70S EXPECTED FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-90...AND 65-70 TO
THE SOUTH. AGAIN...DEPENDING ON THE NORTHERN SHIELD OF STEADIER
RAIN...MAX TEMPS COULD BE ADJUSTED UP OR DOWN YET AGAIN. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT...SHOULD THE STEADIER RAIN PERSIST LONGER AND
FURTHER NORTH...THAT SOME AREAS MAY ONLY REMAIN IN THE LOWER/MID
60S ON SATURDAY. FOR SAT NT...DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY CLEARING
DEVELOPS...AND IF SAT MAX TEMPS REMAIN ON THE COOLER SIDE...IT
MAY BE QUITE CHILLY AS A BRIEF WINDOW OF DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING ENSUES. EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID 50S IN
MANY AREAS...ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME 40S...ESP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT AND INTO THE BERKSHIRES. AREAS OF FOG
COULD FORM LATE AT NIGHT.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...THE SECOND IMPULSE SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION IN THE MORNING...WITH RISING MID TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS IN
ITS WAKE. HOWEVER...THE ASSOCIATED COLD POOL MAY STILL BE CLOSE
ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO TO DEVELOP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN VT LATER
SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...SLIGHT CHC POPS
HAVE BEEN INDICATED IN THIS AREA. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY WARMER
WITH MAX TEMPS REACHING THE LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MAINLY CLEAR FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH MIN TEMPS
FALLING INTO THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO START OFF DRY AS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.
THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL. EXPECT HIGHS ON MONDAY TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S
WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

A RETURN TO UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WHILE A COASTAL SYSTEM MOVES
NORTHEAST ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER
80S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL PROVIDE MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE
INCREASING CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA ON SATURDAY.

WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT TODAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY TO THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF RAIN OR
SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
90. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. THEN...LOW PRESSURE
PASSING SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MAINLY LIGHT
RAIN FOR AREAS NEAR AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90.
RAINFALL AMTS IN THIS REGION SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM ONE
TENTH...TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS
ARE POSSIBLE...ESP ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS.
FURTHER NORTH...RAINFALL AMTS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER ONE
TENTH OF AN INCH.

RIVER LEVELS SHOULD GENERALLY FALL TODAY THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY...THEN MAY HOLD STEADY OR RISE SLIGHTLY SAT AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE RAIN.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IRL/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/IRL/KL
HYDROLOGY...IRL/KL




000
FXUS61 KALY 031016
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
616 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TODAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER...ALONG WITH COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY TO THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF RAIN OR
SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
90. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 615 AM EDT...SKIES REMAIN MAINLY SUNNY ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE LOWER/MID 40S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...WITH MAINLY 50S ELSEWHERE.

EXPECT MAINLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY...WITH TEMPS ABOUT 2-3 DEGREES
WARMER THAN THURSDAY...REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 IN MOST
VALLEYS...AND 70-75 ACROSS MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH SOME
OF THE HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT
MAY ONLY REACH THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE SATURDAY FORECAST...

FRI NT...CLEAR AND COOL TO START...THEN INCREASING/THICKENING
CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 50S FOR MOST
AREAS...EXCEPT PERHAPS 45-50 ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.

SAT-SAT NT...IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE INTERACTION BETWEEN TWO UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES WILL NEGATIVELY IMPACT OUR WEATHER FOR AT LEAST A
PORTION OF SATURDAY. THE SOUTHERN IMPULSE APPEARS TO SHEAR OUT AND
LIFT FURTHER NORTHWARD...BRINGING SHOWERS OR EVEN A PERIOD OF
STEADY RAIN TO AREAS NEAR AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
90...ESP FROM AROUND MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. NEARLY
ALL NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED NORTHWARD WITH THIS FEATURE AND
ASSOCIATED RAINFALL...ALTHOUGH THE GFS APPEARS MOST AGGRESSIVE
WITH QPF...AS IT IMPLIES A FAIRLY SOAKING RAINFALL FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION. THE GFS LATELY HAS BEEN TOO WET WITH QPF...SO HAVE SIDED
CLOSER TO A LIGHTER NAM/ECMWF BLEND OF QPF. NEVERTHELESS...THIS
STILL WOULD GIVE A PERIOD OF STEADY LIGHT/MODERATE RAIN TO AT
LEAST THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...AGAIN
MAINLY FROM MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY/MID AFTERNOON. THE CAPITAL
REGION AND BERKSHIRES WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THIS
POTENTIAL STEADIER RAINFALL...WITH LIKELY POPS INDICATED FROM
ABOUT I-90 SOUTH. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FUTURE MODEL TRENDS TO SEE
IF THIS STEADIER RAIN SHIELD TRENDS EVEN FURTHER NORTH...OR
ACTUALLY BACKS SOUTHWARD YET AGAIN. IT APPEARS THAT THE TIMING OF
THIS SOUTHERN IMPULSE MAY BE JUST QUICK ENOUGH FOR THE STEADIER
RAIN TO TAPER OFF BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...ESP CLOSER TO
I-90...AND POSSIBLY AROUND SUNSET EVEN TO THE SOUTH. SO...DESPITE
SOME POTENTIALLY WET WEATHER DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...THERE
REMAINS A CHANCE THAT RAIN ENDS BY OR SHORTLY AFTER NIGHTFALL. THE
NORTHERN IMPULSE...ALTHOUGH STILL STRONG...SHOULD MOVE ACROSS
LATER SAT NT OR EARLY SUNDAY. HOWEVER...MUCH OF THE MOISTURE WILL
BE SHUNTED EAST OF THIS SECOND IMPULSE BY THE LEAD ONE...AND THE
CURRENT TIMING WOULD ALSO BRING IT THROUGH AT NIGHT WITH MINIMAL
INSTABILITY...THEREFORE HAVE NOT INDICATED ANY THUNDER OR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS FOR LATER SAT NT.

WITH THE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TOWARD MORE CLOUDS AND SOME
RAIN...HAVE ALSO LOWERED MAX TEMPS...RATHER SIGNIFICANTLY...WITH
ONLY LOWER/MID 70S EXPECTED FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-90...AND 65-70 TO
THE SOUTH. AGAIN...DEPENDING ON THE NORTHERN SHIELD OF STEADIER
RAIN...MAX TEMPS COULD BE ADJUSTED UP OR DOWN YET AGAIN. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT...SHOULD THE STEADIER RAIN PERSIST LONGER AND
FURTHER NORTH...THAT SOME AREAS MAY ONLY REMAIN IN THE LOWER/MID
60S ON SATURDAY. FOR SAT NT...DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY CLEARING
DEVELOPS...AND IF SAT MAX TEMPS REMAIN ON THE COOLER SIDE...IT
MAY BE QUITE CHILLY AS A BRIEF WINDOW OF DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING ENSUES. EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID 50S IN
MANY AREAS...ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME 40S...ESP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT AND INTO THE BERKSHIRES. AREAS OF FOG
COULD FORM LATE AT NIGHT.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...THE SECOND IMPULSE SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION IN THE MORNING...WITH RISING MID TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS IN
ITS WAKE. HOWEVER...THE ASSOCIATED COLD POOL MAY STILL BE CLOSE
ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO TO DEVELOP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN VT LATER
SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...SLIGHT CHC POPS
HAVE BEEN INDICATED IN THIS AREA. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY WARMER
WITH MAX TEMPS REACHING THE LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MAINLY CLEAR FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH MIN TEMPS
FALLING INTO THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO START OFF DRY AS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.
THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL. EXPECT HIGHS ON MONDAY TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S
WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

A RETURN TO UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WHILE A COASTAL SYSTEM MOVES
NORTHEAST ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER
80S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL PROVIDE MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE
INCREASING CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA ON SATURDAY.

WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT TODAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY TO THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF RAIN OR
SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
90. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. THEN...LOW PRESSURE
PASSING SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MAINLY LIGHT
RAIN FOR AREAS NEAR AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90.
RAINFALL AMTS IN THIS REGION SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM ONE
TENTH...TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS
ARE POSSIBLE...ESP ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS.
FURTHER NORTH...RAINFALL AMTS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER ONE
TENTH OF AN INCH.

RIVER LEVELS SHOULD GENERALLY FALL TODAY THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY...THEN MAY HOLD STEADY OR RISE SLIGHTLY SAT AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE RAIN.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IRL/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/IRL/KL
HYDROLOGY...IRL/KL




000
FXUS61 KALY 031008
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
608 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TODAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER...ALONG WITH COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY TO THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF RAIN OR
SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
90. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 4 AM EDT...SKIES REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE LOWER/MID 40S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...WITH MAINLY 50S ELSEWHERE.

EXPECT MAINLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY...WITH TEMPS ABOUT 2-3 DEGREES
WARMER THAN THURSDAY...REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 IN MOST
VALLEYS...AND 70-75 ACROSS MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH SOME
OF THE HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT
MAY ONLY REACH THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
     SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE SATURDAY FORECAST...

FRI NT...CLEAR AND COOL TO START...THEN INCREASING/THICKENING
CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 50S FOR MOST
AREAS...EXCEPT PERHAPS 45-50 ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.

SAT-SAT NT...IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE INTERACTION BETWEEN TWO UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES WILL NEGATIVELY IMPACT OUR WEATHER FOR AT LEAST A
PORTION OF SATURDAY. THE SOUTHERN IMPULSE APPEARS TO SHEAR OUT AND
LIFT FURTHER NORTHWARD...BRINGING SHOWERS OR EVEN A PERIOD OF
STEADY RAIN TO AREAS NEAR AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
90...ESP FROM AROUND MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. NEARLY
ALL NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED NORTHWARD WITH THIS FEATURE AND
ASSOCIATED RAINFALL...ALTHOUGH THE GFS APPEARS MOST AGGRESSIVE
WITH QPF...AS IT IMPLIES A FAIRLY SOAKING RAINFALL FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION. THE GFS LATELY HAS BEEN TOO WET WITH QPF...SO HAVE SIDED
CLOSER TO A LIGHTER NAM/ECMWF BLEND OF QPF. NEVERTHELESS...THIS
STILL WOULD GIVE A PERIOD OF STEADY LIGHT/MODERATE RAIN TO AT
LEAST THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...AGAIN
MAINLY FROM MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY/MID AFTERNOON. THE CAPITAL
REGION AND BERKSHIRES WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THIS
POTENTIAL STEADIER RAINFALL...WITH LIKELY POPS INDICATED FROM
ABOUT I-90 SOUTH. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FUTURE MODEL TRENDS TO SEE
IF THIS STEADIER RAIN SHIELD TRENDS EVEN FURTHER NORTH...OR
ACTUALLY BACKS SOUTHWARD YET AGAIN. IT APPEARS THAT THE TIMING OF
THIS SOUTHERN IMPULSE MAY BE JUST QUICK ENOUGH FOR THE STEADIER
RAIN TO TAPER OFF BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...ESP CLOSER TO
I-90...AND POSSIBLY AROUND SUNSET EVEN TO THE SOUTH. SO...DESPITE
SOME POTENTIALLY WET WEATHER DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...THERE
REMAINS A CHANCE THAT RAIN ENDS BY OR SHORTLY AFTER NIGHTFALL. THE
NORTHERN IMPULSE...ALTHOUGH STILL STRONG...SHOULD MOVE ACROSS
LATER SAT NT OR EARLY SUNDAY. HOWEVER...MUCH OF THE MOISTURE WILL
BE SHUNTED EAST OF THIS SECOND IMPULSE BY THE LEAD ONE...AND THE
CURRENT TIMING WOULD ALSO BRING IT THROUGH AT NIGHT WITH MINIMAL
INSTABILITY...THEREFORE HAVE NOT INDICATED ANY THUNDER OR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS FOR LATER SAT NT.

WITH THE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TOWARD MORE CLOUDS AND SOME
RAIN...HAVE ALSO LOWERED MAX TEMPS...RATHER SIGNIFICANTLY...WITH
ONLY LOWER/MID 70S EXPECTED FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-90...AND 65-70 TO
THE SOUTH. AGAIN...DEPENDING ON THE NORTHERN SHIELD OF STEADIER
RAIN...MAX TEMPS COULD BE ADJUSTED UP OR DOWN YET AGAIN. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT...SHOULD THE STEADIER RAIN PERSIST LONGER AND
FURTHER NORTH...THAT SOME AREAS MAY ONLY REMAIN IN THE LOWER/MID
60S ON SATURDAY. FOR SAT NT...DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY CLEARING
DEVELOPS...AND IF SAT MAX TEMPS REMAIN ON THE COOLER SIDE...IT
MAY BE QUITE CHILLY AS A BRIEF WINDOW OF DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING ENSUES. EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID 50S IN
MANY AREAS...ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME 40S...ESP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT AND INTO THE BERKSHIRES. AREAS OF FOG
COULD FORM LATE AT NIGHT.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...THE SECOND IMPULSE SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION IN THE MORNING...WITH RISING MID TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS IN
ITS WAKE. HOWEVER...THE ASSOCIATED COLD POOL MAY STILL BE CLOSE
ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO TO DEVELOP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN VT LATER
SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...SLIGHT CHC POPS
HAVE BEEN INDICATED IN THIS AREA. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY WARMER
WITH MAX TEMPS REACHING THE LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MAINLY CLEAR FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH MIN TEMPS
FALLING INTO THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO START OFF DRY AS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.
THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL. EXPECT HIGHS ON MONDAY TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S
WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

A RETURN TO UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WHILE A COASTAL SYSTEM MOVES
NORTHEAST ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER
80S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL PROVIDE MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE
INCREASING CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA ON SATURDAY.

WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT TODAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY TO THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF RAIN OR
SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
90. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. THEN...LOW PRESSURE
PASSING SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MAINLY LIGHT
RAIN FOR AREAS NEAR AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90.
RAINFALL AMTS IN THIS REGION SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM ONE
TENTH...TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS
ARE POSSIBLE...ESP ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS.
FURTHER NORTH...RAINFALL AMTS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER ONE
TENTH OF AN INCH.

RIVER LEVELS SHOULD GENERALLY FALL TODAY THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY...THEN MAY HOLD STEADY OR RISE SLIGHTLY SAT AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE RAIN.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IRL/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/IRL/KL
HYDROLOGY...IRL/KL




000
FXUS61 KALY 031008
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
608 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TODAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER...ALONG WITH COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY TO THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF RAIN OR
SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
90. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 4 AM EDT...SKIES REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE LOWER/MID 40S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...WITH MAINLY 50S ELSEWHERE.

EXPECT MAINLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY...WITH TEMPS ABOUT 2-3 DEGREES
WARMER THAN THURSDAY...REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 IN MOST
VALLEYS...AND 70-75 ACROSS MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH SOME
OF THE HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT
MAY ONLY REACH THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
     SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE SATURDAY FORECAST...

FRI NT...CLEAR AND COOL TO START...THEN INCREASING/THICKENING
CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 50S FOR MOST
AREAS...EXCEPT PERHAPS 45-50 ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.

SAT-SAT NT...IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE INTERACTION BETWEEN TWO UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES WILL NEGATIVELY IMPACT OUR WEATHER FOR AT LEAST A
PORTION OF SATURDAY. THE SOUTHERN IMPULSE APPEARS TO SHEAR OUT AND
LIFT FURTHER NORTHWARD...BRINGING SHOWERS OR EVEN A PERIOD OF
STEADY RAIN TO AREAS NEAR AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
90...ESP FROM AROUND MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. NEARLY
ALL NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED NORTHWARD WITH THIS FEATURE AND
ASSOCIATED RAINFALL...ALTHOUGH THE GFS APPEARS MOST AGGRESSIVE
WITH QPF...AS IT IMPLIES A FAIRLY SOAKING RAINFALL FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION. THE GFS LATELY HAS BEEN TOO WET WITH QPF...SO HAVE SIDED
CLOSER TO A LIGHTER NAM/ECMWF BLEND OF QPF. NEVERTHELESS...THIS
STILL WOULD GIVE A PERIOD OF STEADY LIGHT/MODERATE RAIN TO AT
LEAST THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...AGAIN
MAINLY FROM MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY/MID AFTERNOON. THE CAPITAL
REGION AND BERKSHIRES WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THIS
POTENTIAL STEADIER RAINFALL...WITH LIKELY POPS INDICATED FROM
ABOUT I-90 SOUTH. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FUTURE MODEL TRENDS TO SEE
IF THIS STEADIER RAIN SHIELD TRENDS EVEN FURTHER NORTH...OR
ACTUALLY BACKS SOUTHWARD YET AGAIN. IT APPEARS THAT THE TIMING OF
THIS SOUTHERN IMPULSE MAY BE JUST QUICK ENOUGH FOR THE STEADIER
RAIN TO TAPER OFF BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...ESP CLOSER TO
I-90...AND POSSIBLY AROUND SUNSET EVEN TO THE SOUTH. SO...DESPITE
SOME POTENTIALLY WET WEATHER DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...THERE
REMAINS A CHANCE THAT RAIN ENDS BY OR SHORTLY AFTER NIGHTFALL. THE
NORTHERN IMPULSE...ALTHOUGH STILL STRONG...SHOULD MOVE ACROSS
LATER SAT NT OR EARLY SUNDAY. HOWEVER...MUCH OF THE MOISTURE WILL
BE SHUNTED EAST OF THIS SECOND IMPULSE BY THE LEAD ONE...AND THE
CURRENT TIMING WOULD ALSO BRING IT THROUGH AT NIGHT WITH MINIMAL
INSTABILITY...THEREFORE HAVE NOT INDICATED ANY THUNDER OR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS FOR LATER SAT NT.

WITH THE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TOWARD MORE CLOUDS AND SOME
RAIN...HAVE ALSO LOWERED MAX TEMPS...RATHER SIGNIFICANTLY...WITH
ONLY LOWER/MID 70S EXPECTED FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-90...AND 65-70 TO
THE SOUTH. AGAIN...DEPENDING ON THE NORTHERN SHIELD OF STEADIER
RAIN...MAX TEMPS COULD BE ADJUSTED UP OR DOWN YET AGAIN. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT...SHOULD THE STEADIER RAIN PERSIST LONGER AND
FURTHER NORTH...THAT SOME AREAS MAY ONLY REMAIN IN THE LOWER/MID
60S ON SATURDAY. FOR SAT NT...DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY CLEARING
DEVELOPS...AND IF SAT MAX TEMPS REMAIN ON THE COOLER SIDE...IT
MAY BE QUITE CHILLY AS A BRIEF WINDOW OF DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING ENSUES. EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID 50S IN
MANY AREAS...ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME 40S...ESP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT AND INTO THE BERKSHIRES. AREAS OF FOG
COULD FORM LATE AT NIGHT.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...THE SECOND IMPULSE SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION IN THE MORNING...WITH RISING MID TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS IN
ITS WAKE. HOWEVER...THE ASSOCIATED COLD POOL MAY STILL BE CLOSE
ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO TO DEVELOP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN VT LATER
SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...SLIGHT CHC POPS
HAVE BEEN INDICATED IN THIS AREA. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY WARMER
WITH MAX TEMPS REACHING THE LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MAINLY CLEAR FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH MIN TEMPS
FALLING INTO THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO START OFF DRY AS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.
THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL. EXPECT HIGHS ON MONDAY TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S
WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

A RETURN TO UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WHILE A COASTAL SYSTEM MOVES
NORTHEAST ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER
80S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL PROVIDE MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE
INCREASING CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA ON SATURDAY.

WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT TODAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY TO THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF RAIN OR
SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
90. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. THEN...LOW PRESSURE
PASSING SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MAINLY LIGHT
RAIN FOR AREAS NEAR AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90.
RAINFALL AMTS IN THIS REGION SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM ONE
TENTH...TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS
ARE POSSIBLE...ESP ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS.
FURTHER NORTH...RAINFALL AMTS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER ONE
TENTH OF AN INCH.

RIVER LEVELS SHOULD GENERALLY FALL TODAY THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY...THEN MAY HOLD STEADY OR RISE SLIGHTLY SAT AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE RAIN.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IRL/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/IRL/KL
HYDROLOGY...IRL/KL


  [top]

000
FXUS61 KOKX 030837
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
437 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TODAY...THEN GIVES WAY TO LOW PRESSURE THAT IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A WEAK LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT WILL THEN LIFT SLOWLY UP THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY
AND POSSIBLY LINGER INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
INITIAL SHORTWAVE DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING...WITH
WEAK RIDGE ALOFT BUILDING IN BEHIND.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA TODAY. SATELLITE INDICATES
CLEARING ACROSS THE AREA...AND MODELS PROG PLENTY OF DRY AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE TODAY.

MOS TEMPS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...AND EXPECT HIGHS TO RISE TO
AROUND 80.

THERE IS MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPSTREAM TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TRACK TOWARD THE AREA THIS TIME
FRAME...WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST AND PASSING JUST SOUTH
OF LONG ISLAND LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS CLOSE WITH
REGARD TO SFC LOW TRACK...WITH CMC SLOWER.

THE FORECAST TREND IS WETTER AS ANALYSIS OF 00Z MODEL SUITE
INDICATES PLENTY OF LIFT OUT AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...AND TO THE
NORTH OF THE SFC LOW.

CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT...WITH MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES
SATURDAY. AFTER COLLAB WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL MAKE THE JUMP
TO LIKELY POPS SATURDAY DUE TO THIS WETTER CONSENSUS.

TEMPS TONIGHT WILL SETTLE IN THE UPPER 50S TO THE MIDDLE 60S AS
CLOUDS INCREASE.

THEN...COOLER READINGS SEEM LIKELY SATURDAY DUE TO CLOUDS...RAIN AND
NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW. EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE ONLY TO THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER TO MID 70S...WELL BELOW NORMAL. THE AREA IS OBVIOUSLY
ON THE COOL SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM AND NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
INSTABILITY IS NOTED. STRATIFORM RAIN.

THE LOW AND UPPER TROUGH PASS EAST SATURDAY NIGHT. WOULD ANTICIPATE
IMPROVING CONDITIONS DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS RAIN ENDS
AND SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY SHOULD FEATURE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS. COULD SEE SOME AFTERNOON CU ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AS CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTS ALOFT AND AS A WEAK
THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPS.

SOME CHANGES ARE NOW IN THE OFFING FOR WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY A DRY MID
WEEK FORECAST. FIRST...UPPER RIDGING WILL PASS ACROSS SUNDAY NIGHT
AND PASS TO THE NORTHEAST ON MON...ALLOWING HIGH CLOUDS FROM A WEAK
DISTURBANCE LIFTING NORTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TO SPREAD IN
MON INTO MON EVENING. THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD EVENTUALLY ARRIVE LATE
MON NIGHT INTO TUE WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP.

THEN AN UPPER TROUGH TRAVERSING SOUTHERN CANADA WILL DRIVE A COLD
FRONT TOWARD THE AREA ON WED. WITH GLOBAL MODELS INDICATING QUASI-
ZONAL WSW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
STATES...THE TAIL END OF THIS FRONT SHOULD BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY
AS WELL...WITH A SERIES OF CONVECTIVELY GENERATED MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES RIDING ALONG IT. THIS WILL MEAN CONTINUED CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION BOTH DIURNAL AND NON-DIURNAL FROM WED INTO
THU...DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THESE DISTURBANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
MORNING...SLIDING OFFSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON. A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH 06Z SAT.

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECASTS. SEABREEZES DEVELOP
AT COASTAL TERMINALS LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTN. DIRECTION AT
KBDR/KGON MAY BE 20-30 DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF FORECAST DUE TO
HYBRID SYNOPTIC/SEABREEZE FLOW.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS. DIRECTION MAY BE 20-30 DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF FORECAST
DUE TO HYBRID SYNOPTIC/SEABREEZE FLOW.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. LIGHT SE FLOW...BECOMING E-NE LATE.
.SATURDAY...MVFR LIKELY WITH RAIN DEVELOPING. LOW CHC OF IFR.
E/NE WINDS 10-15G20KT...BECOMING N LATE.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...VFR. NLY WINDS DIMINISHING SAT EVE.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TODAY...WINDS WILL REMAIN
RATHER LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA WATERS. FAIRLY TRANQUIL SEAS CAN BE
EXPECTED AS WELL...MAINLY 2 TO 3 FEET IN SWELL TODAY OVER THE OCEAN
WATERS.

BY TONIGHT...WINDS WILL TURN TOWARD THE EAST AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
THAT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS FROM THE WEST. THIS LOW PASSES NEARBY
SATURDAY. AS SUCH...WINDS INCREASE AS THEY BACK TO THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST. OVER THE OCEAN...WINDS MAY APPROACH SCA THRESHOLDS.
NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THOUGH IN THIS OCCURRING...SO WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY HEADLINES.

SEAS BUILD LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. HOWEVER...NOT
TOO CONFIDENT IN REACHING 5 FEET UNTIL POSSIBLY SAT EVENING.

WINDS AND SEAS LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE...RESULTING
IN LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN BELOW A 1/2 INCH SATURDAY.
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED.

SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION COULD OCCUR AT SOME POINT DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK LOW AND WARM FRONT MOVE UP THE COAST
ON TUE...THEN AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND STALLS NEARBY WED
INTO THU. PREDICTABILITY IS TOO LOW TO OFFER ANY SPECIFICS ATTM.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A RECENT FULL MOON...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 3/4 TO 1 1/2
FT ARE NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED AT
THE PEAK OF THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MINOR
BENCHMARKS COULD BRIEFLY BE TOUCHED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF
NASSAU COUNTY TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY SATURDAY NIGHT. IN
ADDITION...WINDS INCREASE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY FROM THE
NORTHEAST...SO THE DAYTIME HIGH TIDES MAY NEED TO BE MONITORED AS
WELL.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/PW
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...24
MARINE...GOODMAN/PW
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/PW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KOKX 030837
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
437 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TODAY...THEN GIVES WAY TO LOW PRESSURE THAT IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A WEAK LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT WILL THEN LIFT SLOWLY UP THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY
AND POSSIBLY LINGER INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
INITIAL SHORTWAVE DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING...WITH
WEAK RIDGE ALOFT BUILDING IN BEHIND.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA TODAY. SATELLITE INDICATES
CLEARING ACROSS THE AREA...AND MODELS PROG PLENTY OF DRY AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE TODAY.

MOS TEMPS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...AND EXPECT HIGHS TO RISE TO
AROUND 80.

THERE IS MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPSTREAM TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TRACK TOWARD THE AREA THIS TIME
FRAME...WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST AND PASSING JUST SOUTH
OF LONG ISLAND LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS CLOSE WITH
REGARD TO SFC LOW TRACK...WITH CMC SLOWER.

THE FORECAST TREND IS WETTER AS ANALYSIS OF 00Z MODEL SUITE
INDICATES PLENTY OF LIFT OUT AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...AND TO THE
NORTH OF THE SFC LOW.

CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT...WITH MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES
SATURDAY. AFTER COLLAB WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL MAKE THE JUMP
TO LIKELY POPS SATURDAY DUE TO THIS WETTER CONSENSUS.

TEMPS TONIGHT WILL SETTLE IN THE UPPER 50S TO THE MIDDLE 60S AS
CLOUDS INCREASE.

THEN...COOLER READINGS SEEM LIKELY SATURDAY DUE TO CLOUDS...RAIN AND
NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW. EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE ONLY TO THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER TO MID 70S...WELL BELOW NORMAL. THE AREA IS OBVIOUSLY
ON THE COOL SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM AND NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
INSTABILITY IS NOTED. STRATIFORM RAIN.

THE LOW AND UPPER TROUGH PASS EAST SATURDAY NIGHT. WOULD ANTICIPATE
IMPROVING CONDITIONS DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS RAIN ENDS
AND SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY SHOULD FEATURE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS. COULD SEE SOME AFTERNOON CU ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AS CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTS ALOFT AND AS A WEAK
THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPS.

SOME CHANGES ARE NOW IN THE OFFING FOR WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY A DRY MID
WEEK FORECAST. FIRST...UPPER RIDGING WILL PASS ACROSS SUNDAY NIGHT
AND PASS TO THE NORTHEAST ON MON...ALLOWING HIGH CLOUDS FROM A WEAK
DISTURBANCE LIFTING NORTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TO SPREAD IN
MON INTO MON EVENING. THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD EVENTUALLY ARRIVE LATE
MON NIGHT INTO TUE WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP.

THEN AN UPPER TROUGH TRAVERSING SOUTHERN CANADA WILL DRIVE A COLD
FRONT TOWARD THE AREA ON WED. WITH GLOBAL MODELS INDICATING QUASI-
ZONAL WSW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
STATES...THE TAIL END OF THIS FRONT SHOULD BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY
AS WELL...WITH A SERIES OF CONVECTIVELY GENERATED MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES RIDING ALONG IT. THIS WILL MEAN CONTINUED CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION BOTH DIURNAL AND NON-DIURNAL FROM WED INTO
THU...DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THESE DISTURBANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
MORNING...SLIDING OFFSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON. A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH 06Z SAT.

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECASTS. SEABREEZES DEVELOP
AT COASTAL TERMINALS LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTN. DIRECTION AT
KBDR/KGON MAY BE 20-30 DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF FORECAST DUE TO
HYBRID SYNOPTIC/SEABREEZE FLOW.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS. DIRECTION MAY BE 20-30 DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF FORECAST
DUE TO HYBRID SYNOPTIC/SEABREEZE FLOW.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. LIGHT SE FLOW...BECOMING E-NE LATE.
.SATURDAY...MVFR LIKELY WITH RAIN DEVELOPING. LOW CHC OF IFR.
E/NE WINDS 10-15G20KT...BECOMING N LATE.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...VFR. NLY WINDS DIMINISHING SAT EVE.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TODAY...WINDS WILL REMAIN
RATHER LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA WATERS. FAIRLY TRANQUIL SEAS CAN BE
EXPECTED AS WELL...MAINLY 2 TO 3 FEET IN SWELL TODAY OVER THE OCEAN
WATERS.

BY TONIGHT...WINDS WILL TURN TOWARD THE EAST AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
THAT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS FROM THE WEST. THIS LOW PASSES NEARBY
SATURDAY. AS SUCH...WINDS INCREASE AS THEY BACK TO THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST. OVER THE OCEAN...WINDS MAY APPROACH SCA THRESHOLDS.
NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THOUGH IN THIS OCCURRING...SO WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY HEADLINES.

SEAS BUILD LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. HOWEVER...NOT
TOO CONFIDENT IN REACHING 5 FEET UNTIL POSSIBLY SAT EVENING.

WINDS AND SEAS LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE...RESULTING
IN LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN BELOW A 1/2 INCH SATURDAY.
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED.

SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION COULD OCCUR AT SOME POINT DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK LOW AND WARM FRONT MOVE UP THE COAST
ON TUE...THEN AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND STALLS NEARBY WED
INTO THU. PREDICTABILITY IS TOO LOW TO OFFER ANY SPECIFICS ATTM.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A RECENT FULL MOON...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 3/4 TO 1 1/2
FT ARE NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED AT
THE PEAK OF THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MINOR
BENCHMARKS COULD BRIEFLY BE TOUCHED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF
NASSAU COUNTY TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY SATURDAY NIGHT. IN
ADDITION...WINDS INCREASE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY FROM THE
NORTHEAST...SO THE DAYTIME HIGH TIDES MAY NEED TO BE MONITORED AS
WELL.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/PW
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...24
MARINE...GOODMAN/PW
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/PW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KOKX 030837
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
437 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TODAY...THEN GIVES WAY TO LOW PRESSURE THAT IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A WEAK LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT WILL THEN LIFT SLOWLY UP THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY
AND POSSIBLY LINGER INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
INITIAL SHORTWAVE DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING...WITH
WEAK RIDGE ALOFT BUILDING IN BEHIND.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA TODAY. SATELLITE INDICATES
CLEARING ACROSS THE AREA...AND MODELS PROG PLENTY OF DRY AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE TODAY.

MOS TEMPS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...AND EXPECT HIGHS TO RISE TO
AROUND 80.

THERE IS MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPSTREAM TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TRACK TOWARD THE AREA THIS TIME
FRAME...WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST AND PASSING JUST SOUTH
OF LONG ISLAND LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS CLOSE WITH
REGARD TO SFC LOW TRACK...WITH CMC SLOWER.

THE FORECAST TREND IS WETTER AS ANALYSIS OF 00Z MODEL SUITE
INDICATES PLENTY OF LIFT OUT AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...AND TO THE
NORTH OF THE SFC LOW.

CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT...WITH MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES
SATURDAY. AFTER COLLAB WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL MAKE THE JUMP
TO LIKELY POPS SATURDAY DUE TO THIS WETTER CONSENSUS.

TEMPS TONIGHT WILL SETTLE IN THE UPPER 50S TO THE MIDDLE 60S AS
CLOUDS INCREASE.

THEN...COOLER READINGS SEEM LIKELY SATURDAY DUE TO CLOUDS...RAIN AND
NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW. EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE ONLY TO THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER TO MID 70S...WELL BELOW NORMAL. THE AREA IS OBVIOUSLY
ON THE COOL SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM AND NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
INSTABILITY IS NOTED. STRATIFORM RAIN.

THE LOW AND UPPER TROUGH PASS EAST SATURDAY NIGHT. WOULD ANTICIPATE
IMPROVING CONDITIONS DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS RAIN ENDS
AND SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY SHOULD FEATURE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS. COULD SEE SOME AFTERNOON CU ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AS CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTS ALOFT AND AS A WEAK
THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPS.

SOME CHANGES ARE NOW IN THE OFFING FOR WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY A DRY MID
WEEK FORECAST. FIRST...UPPER RIDGING WILL PASS ACROSS SUNDAY NIGHT
AND PASS TO THE NORTHEAST ON MON...ALLOWING HIGH CLOUDS FROM A WEAK
DISTURBANCE LIFTING NORTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TO SPREAD IN
MON INTO MON EVENING. THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD EVENTUALLY ARRIVE LATE
MON NIGHT INTO TUE WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP.

THEN AN UPPER TROUGH TRAVERSING SOUTHERN CANADA WILL DRIVE A COLD
FRONT TOWARD THE AREA ON WED. WITH GLOBAL MODELS INDICATING QUASI-
ZONAL WSW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
STATES...THE TAIL END OF THIS FRONT SHOULD BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY
AS WELL...WITH A SERIES OF CONVECTIVELY GENERATED MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES RIDING ALONG IT. THIS WILL MEAN CONTINUED CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION BOTH DIURNAL AND NON-DIURNAL FROM WED INTO
THU...DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THESE DISTURBANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
MORNING...SLIDING OFFSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON. A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH 06Z SAT.

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECASTS. SEABREEZES DEVELOP
AT COASTAL TERMINALS LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTN. DIRECTION AT
KBDR/KGON MAY BE 20-30 DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF FORECAST DUE TO
HYBRID SYNOPTIC/SEABREEZE FLOW.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS. DIRECTION MAY BE 20-30 DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF FORECAST
DUE TO HYBRID SYNOPTIC/SEABREEZE FLOW.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. LIGHT SE FLOW...BECOMING E-NE LATE.
.SATURDAY...MVFR LIKELY WITH RAIN DEVELOPING. LOW CHC OF IFR.
E/NE WINDS 10-15G20KT...BECOMING N LATE.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...VFR. NLY WINDS DIMINISHING SAT EVE.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TODAY...WINDS WILL REMAIN
RATHER LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA WATERS. FAIRLY TRANQUIL SEAS CAN BE
EXPECTED AS WELL...MAINLY 2 TO 3 FEET IN SWELL TODAY OVER THE OCEAN
WATERS.

BY TONIGHT...WINDS WILL TURN TOWARD THE EAST AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
THAT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS FROM THE WEST. THIS LOW PASSES NEARBY
SATURDAY. AS SUCH...WINDS INCREASE AS THEY BACK TO THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST. OVER THE OCEAN...WINDS MAY APPROACH SCA THRESHOLDS.
NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THOUGH IN THIS OCCURRING...SO WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY HEADLINES.

SEAS BUILD LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. HOWEVER...NOT
TOO CONFIDENT IN REACHING 5 FEET UNTIL POSSIBLY SAT EVENING.

WINDS AND SEAS LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE...RESULTING
IN LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN BELOW A 1/2 INCH SATURDAY.
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED.

SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION COULD OCCUR AT SOME POINT DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK LOW AND WARM FRONT MOVE UP THE COAST
ON TUE...THEN AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND STALLS NEARBY WED
INTO THU. PREDICTABILITY IS TOO LOW TO OFFER ANY SPECIFICS ATTM.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A RECENT FULL MOON...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 3/4 TO 1 1/2
FT ARE NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED AT
THE PEAK OF THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MINOR
BENCHMARKS COULD BRIEFLY BE TOUCHED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF
NASSAU COUNTY TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY SATURDAY NIGHT. IN
ADDITION...WINDS INCREASE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY FROM THE
NORTHEAST...SO THE DAYTIME HIGH TIDES MAY NEED TO BE MONITORED AS
WELL.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/PW
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...24
MARINE...GOODMAN/PW
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/PW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KOKX 030837
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
437 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TODAY...THEN GIVES WAY TO LOW PRESSURE THAT IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A WEAK LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT WILL THEN LIFT SLOWLY UP THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY
AND POSSIBLY LINGER INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
INITIAL SHORTWAVE DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING...WITH
WEAK RIDGE ALOFT BUILDING IN BEHIND.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA TODAY. SATELLITE INDICATES
CLEARING ACROSS THE AREA...AND MODELS PROG PLENTY OF DRY AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE TODAY.

MOS TEMPS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...AND EXPECT HIGHS TO RISE TO
AROUND 80.

THERE IS MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPSTREAM TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TRACK TOWARD THE AREA THIS TIME
FRAME...WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST AND PASSING JUST SOUTH
OF LONG ISLAND LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS CLOSE WITH
REGARD TO SFC LOW TRACK...WITH CMC SLOWER.

THE FORECAST TREND IS WETTER AS ANALYSIS OF 00Z MODEL SUITE
INDICATES PLENTY OF LIFT OUT AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...AND TO THE
NORTH OF THE SFC LOW.

CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT...WITH MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES
SATURDAY. AFTER COLLAB WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL MAKE THE JUMP
TO LIKELY POPS SATURDAY DUE TO THIS WETTER CONSENSUS.

TEMPS TONIGHT WILL SETTLE IN THE UPPER 50S TO THE MIDDLE 60S AS
CLOUDS INCREASE.

THEN...COOLER READINGS SEEM LIKELY SATURDAY DUE TO CLOUDS...RAIN AND
NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW. EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE ONLY TO THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER TO MID 70S...WELL BELOW NORMAL. THE AREA IS OBVIOUSLY
ON THE COOL SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM AND NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
INSTABILITY IS NOTED. STRATIFORM RAIN.

THE LOW AND UPPER TROUGH PASS EAST SATURDAY NIGHT. WOULD ANTICIPATE
IMPROVING CONDITIONS DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS RAIN ENDS
AND SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY SHOULD FEATURE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS. COULD SEE SOME AFTERNOON CU ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AS CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTS ALOFT AND AS A WEAK
THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPS.

SOME CHANGES ARE NOW IN THE OFFING FOR WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY A DRY MID
WEEK FORECAST. FIRST...UPPER RIDGING WILL PASS ACROSS SUNDAY NIGHT
AND PASS TO THE NORTHEAST ON MON...ALLOWING HIGH CLOUDS FROM A WEAK
DISTURBANCE LIFTING NORTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TO SPREAD IN
MON INTO MON EVENING. THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD EVENTUALLY ARRIVE LATE
MON NIGHT INTO TUE WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP.

THEN AN UPPER TROUGH TRAVERSING SOUTHERN CANADA WILL DRIVE A COLD
FRONT TOWARD THE AREA ON WED. WITH GLOBAL MODELS INDICATING QUASI-
ZONAL WSW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
STATES...THE TAIL END OF THIS FRONT SHOULD BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY
AS WELL...WITH A SERIES OF CONVECTIVELY GENERATED MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES RIDING ALONG IT. THIS WILL MEAN CONTINUED CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION BOTH DIURNAL AND NON-DIURNAL FROM WED INTO
THU...DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THESE DISTURBANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
MORNING...SLIDING OFFSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON. A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH 06Z SAT.

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECASTS. SEABREEZES DEVELOP
AT COASTAL TERMINALS LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTN. DIRECTION AT
KBDR/KGON MAY BE 20-30 DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF FORECAST DUE TO
HYBRID SYNOPTIC/SEABREEZE FLOW.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS. DIRECTION MAY BE 20-30 DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF FORECAST
DUE TO HYBRID SYNOPTIC/SEABREEZE FLOW.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. LIGHT SE FLOW...BECOMING E-NE LATE.
.SATURDAY...MVFR LIKELY WITH RAIN DEVELOPING. LOW CHC OF IFR.
E/NE WINDS 10-15G20KT...BECOMING N LATE.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...VFR. NLY WINDS DIMINISHING SAT EVE.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TODAY...WINDS WILL REMAIN
RATHER LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA WATERS. FAIRLY TRANQUIL SEAS CAN BE
EXPECTED AS WELL...MAINLY 2 TO 3 FEET IN SWELL TODAY OVER THE OCEAN
WATERS.

BY TONIGHT...WINDS WILL TURN TOWARD THE EAST AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
THAT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS FROM THE WEST. THIS LOW PASSES NEARBY
SATURDAY. AS SUCH...WINDS INCREASE AS THEY BACK TO THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST. OVER THE OCEAN...WINDS MAY APPROACH SCA THRESHOLDS.
NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THOUGH IN THIS OCCURRING...SO WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY HEADLINES.

SEAS BUILD LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. HOWEVER...NOT
TOO CONFIDENT IN REACHING 5 FEET UNTIL POSSIBLY SAT EVENING.

WINDS AND SEAS LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE...RESULTING
IN LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN BELOW A 1/2 INCH SATURDAY.
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED.

SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION COULD OCCUR AT SOME POINT DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK LOW AND WARM FRONT MOVE UP THE COAST
ON TUE...THEN AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND STALLS NEARBY WED
INTO THU. PREDICTABILITY IS TOO LOW TO OFFER ANY SPECIFICS ATTM.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A RECENT FULL MOON...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 3/4 TO 1 1/2
FT ARE NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED AT
THE PEAK OF THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MINOR
BENCHMARKS COULD BRIEFLY BE TOUCHED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF
NASSAU COUNTY TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY SATURDAY NIGHT. IN
ADDITION...WINDS INCREASE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY FROM THE
NORTHEAST...SO THE DAYTIME HIGH TIDES MAY NEED TO BE MONITORED AS
WELL.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/PW
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...24
MARINE...GOODMAN/PW
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/PW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...


  [top]

000
FXUS61 KBOX 030835
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
435 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TODAY. BIG CHANGES IN THE
FORECAST FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. IT IS NOW LOOKING MORE LIKELY FOR
AT LEAST SOME SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ANY RAINFALL
WILL COME TO AN END SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS
WITH WARMING CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE.
EXPECTING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE LIGHT...
SO LIGHT WINDS WITH SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING ALONG THE COASTS LATE
THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST BUT REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER
THE WEATHER OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND FORMS ANOTHER WAVE ALONG A FRONT TO OUR SOUTH.
THIS SHOULD GENERATE ANOTHER AREA OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THAT
APPROACH FROM OUR SOUTH.

INDEPENDENCE DAY...
HUGE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. THE CHARGE LEAD BY PREVIOUS RUNS OF
THE GFS...HAS BEEN TAKEN UP BY THE REST OF THE 03/00Z GUIDANCE
SUITE. MODEL SOLUTIONS NOW FEATURE AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP MID LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE PROXIMITY OF THIS TROUGH HAS
SHIFTED THE PROJECTED TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE FARTHER NORTH FROM
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. GFS REMAINS THE MOST ROBUST...WITH THE
SLOWEST TIMING. FAVORED A CONSENSUS APPROACH...AS THE DETAILS ARE
STILL SOMEWHAT MURKY.

DESPITE THE CONSISTENT SHIFT AMONG ALL THE GUIDANCE MEMBERS...
DECIDED TO ONLY TREND THE FORECAST WETTER...RATHER THAN GOING WITH
THE WASHOUT FROM PRIOR RUNS OF THE GFS. HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE
CLOSER TO THE SOUTH COAST OF NEW ENGLAND. SINCE THIS IS MORE OF A
WINTER-TIME SETUP...WENT WITH RAIN INSTEAD OF SHOWERS. THAT
SAID...STILL NOT EXPECTING A WASHOUT AS THERE IS A LOT OF LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR TO OVERCOME. STAY TUNED FOR MORE POTENTIAL CHANGES
TO THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

 * RAIN ENDS SATURDAY NIGHT.
 * HIGH PRESSURE AND WARMING CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
 * UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN MID-LATE NEXT WEEK.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...THE MOST RECENT GFS OPERATIONAL
GFS REMAINS THE MORE AMPLIFIED OUTLIER IN THE SHORT TERM WITH THE
DEEPENING OF A SHORTWAVE AND LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT THIS WEEKEND.
THIS OVERAMPLIFCATION CONTINUES BEYOND THE WEEKEND LOOKING AT THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THEREFORE...WILL BE LEANING AWAY FROM THE GFS
WITH THIS LONG TERM UPDATE AND APPLYING A BLEND OF THE GEFS/ECENS
AND PERSISTENCE WITH THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF.

A NEAR ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL SLOWLY GIVE WAY TO A BUILDING RIDGE
ACROSS THE NE...AS DEEPENING CUTOFF ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE
CONTINUOUSLY FEEDS WARM ADVECTION INTO THE RIDGE.  THEREFORE...THE
MODERATING TEMPERATURE/DRY WX PATTERN WE HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK STILL LOOKS LIKE A GOOD STARTING POINT.  BY MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK...IT IS A MATTER OF THE INFLUENCE OF THIS CUTOFF.
THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION OF A MORE E SHIFT IN THE CUTOFF...WHICH
WOULD SUGGEST A LONGER UNSETTLED PERIOD. WHILE OTHERS ARE FURTHER
W...AND SRN NEW ENGLAND REMAINS IN THE ZONAL FLOW WITHIN THE SE
QUADRANT OF THE CUTOFF.  IN ANY CASE...COOLER AND MORE PERIODIC WET
WX IS POSSIBLE IN COMPARISON TO THE EARLY WEEK.

DETAILS...

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...UPPER LVL WAVE WILL BE SLIDING ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE ARE TWO SFC FEATURES TO WATCH.
THE FIRST...SAT NIGHT IS AN OCEAN LOW PRES WAVE MOVING OFFSHORE
WHICH...COULD LEAD TO A FEW REMAINING SHOWERS. THE SECOND IS A
WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SUN. IN EITHER CASE...OVERALL PWATS
IN THE COLUMN ARE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS AND THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT
OF DRY AIR WITH IN THE LOWEST 300HPA. IN EITHER CASE...AN ISOLATED
SHOWER IS LIKELY TO BE MOST RAINFALL TO CONTEND WITH. H85 TEMPS
NEAR +10C SUGGEST TEMPS NEAR NORMAL...SO HIGHS ON SUN REMAIN IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.

MON INTO TUE...WITH UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDING OVER FROM THE
W...COMBINING WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH...EXPECT HIGH PRES AND DRY WX
TO PREVAIL. TEMPS WILL BE WARMING THROUGH THEE PERIOD...ALONG WITH
RISING HUMIDITY. H85 TEMPS ARE CLOSER TO +15C BY TUE.
THEREFORE...HIGHS RANGING IN THE 80S WILL BE FORECAST.

WED...THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF WAVES EJECTING FROM THE STRONG
CUTOFF WELL TO THE W WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. INCREASING
COLUMN MOISTURE WITH PWATS APPROACHING 2.0 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL...COOLING H5 TEMPS AND LEFTOVER WARM/MOIST LOWER LEVELS
SUGGEST DECREASING STATIC STABILITY. THEREFORE...WITH THE WAVE AND
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT...COULD SEE DEVELOPMENT OF T-STORMS AND
SHOWERS. SHEAR IS NOT TOO STRONG AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL LIKELY
NEED TO MONITOR THIS AS WE GET CLOSER.

THU AND FRI...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH DURING THIS PERIOD AS IT
WILL DEPEND ON HOW CLOSE THE UPPER CUTOFF GETS TO THE NE CONUS.
THE FRONT WILL STALL IN THE VICINITY AND PROVIDE A FOCUS...BUT
EXACTLY HOW MANY WAVE/HOW STRONG AND WHEN THEY OCCUR WILL HAVE TO
BE BETTER DEFINED ONCE THE CUTOFF DEVELOPS AND BECOMES BETTER
SAMPLED.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR TO START. MVFR POSSIBLE IN
SCATTERED AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SAT NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SOME RAIN...MAINLY ACROSS SE MA/RI
WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END.  ANY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO
VFR THROUGH THE NIGHT.

MON INTO TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WINDS AND
SEAS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TO
OUR SOUTH SHOULD LEAD TO BUILDING SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED DUE TO ROUGH SEAS. ONLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK
AND TIMING OF THIS LOW PRESSURE.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM
EASTERLY TO NE AS LOW PRES MOVES E OF THE WATERS.  WIND GUSTS MAY
APPROACH 20-25 KT THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT IT WILL TAKE SEAS ON THE
WATERS S AND SE OF NEW ENGLAND INTO SUN TO DECLINE FROM 5-7 FT BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS.  THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
MAY LINGER THROUGH THE DAY ON SUN.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES YIELDS MAINLY
QUIET BOATING WEATHER.

TUE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS SHIFT TO THE S...AND WHILE QUIET
BOATING WEATHER IS LIKELY TO DOMINATE...THERE IS A LOW CHANCE THAT
INCREASING SEAS AND WINDS WILL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 030835
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
435 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TODAY. BIG CHANGES IN THE
FORECAST FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. IT IS NOW LOOKING MORE LIKELY FOR
AT LEAST SOME SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ANY RAINFALL
WILL COME TO AN END SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS
WITH WARMING CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE.
EXPECTING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE LIGHT...
SO LIGHT WINDS WITH SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING ALONG THE COASTS LATE
THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST BUT REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER
THE WEATHER OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND FORMS ANOTHER WAVE ALONG A FRONT TO OUR SOUTH.
THIS SHOULD GENERATE ANOTHER AREA OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THAT
APPROACH FROM OUR SOUTH.

INDEPENDENCE DAY...
HUGE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. THE CHARGE LEAD BY PREVIOUS RUNS OF
THE GFS...HAS BEEN TAKEN UP BY THE REST OF THE 03/00Z GUIDANCE
SUITE. MODEL SOLUTIONS NOW FEATURE AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP MID LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE PROXIMITY OF THIS TROUGH HAS
SHIFTED THE PROJECTED TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE FARTHER NORTH FROM
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. GFS REMAINS THE MOST ROBUST...WITH THE
SLOWEST TIMING. FAVORED A CONSENSUS APPROACH...AS THE DETAILS ARE
STILL SOMEWHAT MURKY.

DESPITE THE CONSISTENT SHIFT AMONG ALL THE GUIDANCE MEMBERS...
DECIDED TO ONLY TREND THE FORECAST WETTER...RATHER THAN GOING WITH
THE WASHOUT FROM PRIOR RUNS OF THE GFS. HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE
CLOSER TO THE SOUTH COAST OF NEW ENGLAND. SINCE THIS IS MORE OF A
WINTER-TIME SETUP...WENT WITH RAIN INSTEAD OF SHOWERS. THAT
SAID...STILL NOT EXPECTING A WASHOUT AS THERE IS A LOT OF LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR TO OVERCOME. STAY TUNED FOR MORE POTENTIAL CHANGES
TO THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

 * RAIN ENDS SATURDAY NIGHT.
 * HIGH PRESSURE AND WARMING CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
 * UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN MID-LATE NEXT WEEK.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...THE MOST RECENT GFS OPERATIONAL
GFS REMAINS THE MORE AMPLIFIED OUTLIER IN THE SHORT TERM WITH THE
DEEPENING OF A SHORTWAVE AND LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT THIS WEEKEND.
THIS OVERAMPLIFCATION CONTINUES BEYOND THE WEEKEND LOOKING AT THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THEREFORE...WILL BE LEANING AWAY FROM THE GFS
WITH THIS LONG TERM UPDATE AND APPLYING A BLEND OF THE GEFS/ECENS
AND PERSISTENCE WITH THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF.

A NEAR ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL SLOWLY GIVE WAY TO A BUILDING RIDGE
ACROSS THE NE...AS DEEPENING CUTOFF ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE
CONTINUOUSLY FEEDS WARM ADVECTION INTO THE RIDGE.  THEREFORE...THE
MODERATING TEMPERATURE/DRY WX PATTERN WE HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK STILL LOOKS LIKE A GOOD STARTING POINT.  BY MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK...IT IS A MATTER OF THE INFLUENCE OF THIS CUTOFF.
THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION OF A MORE E SHIFT IN THE CUTOFF...WHICH
WOULD SUGGEST A LONGER UNSETTLED PERIOD. WHILE OTHERS ARE FURTHER
W...AND SRN NEW ENGLAND REMAINS IN THE ZONAL FLOW WITHIN THE SE
QUADRANT OF THE CUTOFF.  IN ANY CASE...COOLER AND MORE PERIODIC WET
WX IS POSSIBLE IN COMPARISON TO THE EARLY WEEK.

DETAILS...

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...UPPER LVL WAVE WILL BE SLIDING ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE ARE TWO SFC FEATURES TO WATCH.
THE FIRST...SAT NIGHT IS AN OCEAN LOW PRES WAVE MOVING OFFSHORE
WHICH...COULD LEAD TO A FEW REMAINING SHOWERS. THE SECOND IS A
WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SUN. IN EITHER CASE...OVERALL PWATS
IN THE COLUMN ARE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS AND THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT
OF DRY AIR WITH IN THE LOWEST 300HPA. IN EITHER CASE...AN ISOLATED
SHOWER IS LIKELY TO BE MOST RAINFALL TO CONTEND WITH. H85 TEMPS
NEAR +10C SUGGEST TEMPS NEAR NORMAL...SO HIGHS ON SUN REMAIN IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.

MON INTO TUE...WITH UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDING OVER FROM THE
W...COMBINING WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH...EXPECT HIGH PRES AND DRY WX
TO PREVAIL. TEMPS WILL BE WARMING THROUGH THEE PERIOD...ALONG WITH
RISING HUMIDITY. H85 TEMPS ARE CLOSER TO +15C BY TUE.
THEREFORE...HIGHS RANGING IN THE 80S WILL BE FORECAST.

WED...THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF WAVES EJECTING FROM THE STRONG
CUTOFF WELL TO THE W WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. INCREASING
COLUMN MOISTURE WITH PWATS APPROACHING 2.0 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL...COOLING H5 TEMPS AND LEFTOVER WARM/MOIST LOWER LEVELS
SUGGEST DECREASING STATIC STABILITY. THEREFORE...WITH THE WAVE AND
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT...COULD SEE DEVELOPMENT OF T-STORMS AND
SHOWERS. SHEAR IS NOT TOO STRONG AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL LIKELY
NEED TO MONITOR THIS AS WE GET CLOSER.

THU AND FRI...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH DURING THIS PERIOD AS IT
WILL DEPEND ON HOW CLOSE THE UPPER CUTOFF GETS TO THE NE CONUS.
THE FRONT WILL STALL IN THE VICINITY AND PROVIDE A FOCUS...BUT
EXACTLY HOW MANY WAVE/HOW STRONG AND WHEN THEY OCCUR WILL HAVE TO
BE BETTER DEFINED ONCE THE CUTOFF DEVELOPS AND BECOMES BETTER
SAMPLED.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR TO START. MVFR POSSIBLE IN
SCATTERED AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SAT NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SOME RAIN...MAINLY ACROSS SE MA/RI
WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END.  ANY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO
VFR THROUGH THE NIGHT.

MON INTO TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WINDS AND
SEAS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TO
OUR SOUTH SHOULD LEAD TO BUILDING SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED DUE TO ROUGH SEAS. ONLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK
AND TIMING OF THIS LOW PRESSURE.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM
EASTERLY TO NE AS LOW PRES MOVES E OF THE WATERS.  WIND GUSTS MAY
APPROACH 20-25 KT THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT IT WILL TAKE SEAS ON THE
WATERS S AND SE OF NEW ENGLAND INTO SUN TO DECLINE FROM 5-7 FT BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS.  THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
MAY LINGER THROUGH THE DAY ON SUN.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES YIELDS MAINLY
QUIET BOATING WEATHER.

TUE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS SHIFT TO THE S...AND WHILE QUIET
BOATING WEATHER IS LIKELY TO DOMINATE...THERE IS A LOW CHANCE THAT
INCREASING SEAS AND WINDS WILL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 030835
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
435 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TODAY. BIG CHANGES IN THE
FORECAST FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. IT IS NOW LOOKING MORE LIKELY FOR
AT LEAST SOME SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ANY RAINFALL
WILL COME TO AN END SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS
WITH WARMING CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE.
EXPECTING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE LIGHT...
SO LIGHT WINDS WITH SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING ALONG THE COASTS LATE
THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST BUT REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER
THE WEATHER OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND FORMS ANOTHER WAVE ALONG A FRONT TO OUR SOUTH.
THIS SHOULD GENERATE ANOTHER AREA OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THAT
APPROACH FROM OUR SOUTH.

INDEPENDENCE DAY...
HUGE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. THE CHARGE LEAD BY PREVIOUS RUNS OF
THE GFS...HAS BEEN TAKEN UP BY THE REST OF THE 03/00Z GUIDANCE
SUITE. MODEL SOLUTIONS NOW FEATURE AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP MID LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE PROXIMITY OF THIS TROUGH HAS
SHIFTED THE PROJECTED TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE FARTHER NORTH FROM
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. GFS REMAINS THE MOST ROBUST...WITH THE
SLOWEST TIMING. FAVORED A CONSENSUS APPROACH...AS THE DETAILS ARE
STILL SOMEWHAT MURKY.

DESPITE THE CONSISTENT SHIFT AMONG ALL THE GUIDANCE MEMBERS...
DECIDED TO ONLY TREND THE FORECAST WETTER...RATHER THAN GOING WITH
THE WASHOUT FROM PRIOR RUNS OF THE GFS. HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE
CLOSER TO THE SOUTH COAST OF NEW ENGLAND. SINCE THIS IS MORE OF A
WINTER-TIME SETUP...WENT WITH RAIN INSTEAD OF SHOWERS. THAT
SAID...STILL NOT EXPECTING A WASHOUT AS THERE IS A LOT OF LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR TO OVERCOME. STAY TUNED FOR MORE POTENTIAL CHANGES
TO THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

 * RAIN ENDS SATURDAY NIGHT.
 * HIGH PRESSURE AND WARMING CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
 * UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN MID-LATE NEXT WEEK.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...THE MOST RECENT GFS OPERATIONAL
GFS REMAINS THE MORE AMPLIFIED OUTLIER IN THE SHORT TERM WITH THE
DEEPENING OF A SHORTWAVE AND LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT THIS WEEKEND.
THIS OVERAMPLIFCATION CONTINUES BEYOND THE WEEKEND LOOKING AT THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THEREFORE...WILL BE LEANING AWAY FROM THE GFS
WITH THIS LONG TERM UPDATE AND APPLYING A BLEND OF THE GEFS/ECENS
AND PERSISTENCE WITH THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF.

A NEAR ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL SLOWLY GIVE WAY TO A BUILDING RIDGE
ACROSS THE NE...AS DEEPENING CUTOFF ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE
CONTINUOUSLY FEEDS WARM ADVECTION INTO THE RIDGE.  THEREFORE...THE
MODERATING TEMPERATURE/DRY WX PATTERN WE HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK STILL LOOKS LIKE A GOOD STARTING POINT.  BY MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK...IT IS A MATTER OF THE INFLUENCE OF THIS CUTOFF.
THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION OF A MORE E SHIFT IN THE CUTOFF...WHICH
WOULD SUGGEST A LONGER UNSETTLED PERIOD. WHILE OTHERS ARE FURTHER
W...AND SRN NEW ENGLAND REMAINS IN THE ZONAL FLOW WITHIN THE SE
QUADRANT OF THE CUTOFF.  IN ANY CASE...COOLER AND MORE PERIODIC WET
WX IS POSSIBLE IN COMPARISON TO THE EARLY WEEK.

DETAILS...

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...UPPER LVL WAVE WILL BE SLIDING ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE ARE TWO SFC FEATURES TO WATCH.
THE FIRST...SAT NIGHT IS AN OCEAN LOW PRES WAVE MOVING OFFSHORE
WHICH...COULD LEAD TO A FEW REMAINING SHOWERS. THE SECOND IS A
WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SUN. IN EITHER CASE...OVERALL PWATS
IN THE COLUMN ARE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS AND THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT
OF DRY AIR WITH IN THE LOWEST 300HPA. IN EITHER CASE...AN ISOLATED
SHOWER IS LIKELY TO BE MOST RAINFALL TO CONTEND WITH. H85 TEMPS
NEAR +10C SUGGEST TEMPS NEAR NORMAL...SO HIGHS ON SUN REMAIN IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.

MON INTO TUE...WITH UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDING OVER FROM THE
W...COMBINING WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH...EXPECT HIGH PRES AND DRY WX
TO PREVAIL. TEMPS WILL BE WARMING THROUGH THEE PERIOD...ALONG WITH
RISING HUMIDITY. H85 TEMPS ARE CLOSER TO +15C BY TUE.
THEREFORE...HIGHS RANGING IN THE 80S WILL BE FORECAST.

WED...THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF WAVES EJECTING FROM THE STRONG
CUTOFF WELL TO THE W WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. INCREASING
COLUMN MOISTURE WITH PWATS APPROACHING 2.0 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL...COOLING H5 TEMPS AND LEFTOVER WARM/MOIST LOWER LEVELS
SUGGEST DECREASING STATIC STABILITY. THEREFORE...WITH THE WAVE AND
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT...COULD SEE DEVELOPMENT OF T-STORMS AND
SHOWERS. SHEAR IS NOT TOO STRONG AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL LIKELY
NEED TO MONITOR THIS AS WE GET CLOSER.

THU AND FRI...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH DURING THIS PERIOD AS IT
WILL DEPEND ON HOW CLOSE THE UPPER CUTOFF GETS TO THE NE CONUS.
THE FRONT WILL STALL IN THE VICINITY AND PROVIDE A FOCUS...BUT
EXACTLY HOW MANY WAVE/HOW STRONG AND WHEN THEY OCCUR WILL HAVE TO
BE BETTER DEFINED ONCE THE CUTOFF DEVELOPS AND BECOMES BETTER
SAMPLED.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR TO START. MVFR POSSIBLE IN
SCATTERED AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SAT NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SOME RAIN...MAINLY ACROSS SE MA/RI
WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END.  ANY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO
VFR THROUGH THE NIGHT.

MON INTO TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WINDS AND
SEAS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TO
OUR SOUTH SHOULD LEAD TO BUILDING SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED DUE TO ROUGH SEAS. ONLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK
AND TIMING OF THIS LOW PRESSURE.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM
EASTERLY TO NE AS LOW PRES MOVES E OF THE WATERS.  WIND GUSTS MAY
APPROACH 20-25 KT THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT IT WILL TAKE SEAS ON THE
WATERS S AND SE OF NEW ENGLAND INTO SUN TO DECLINE FROM 5-7 FT BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS.  THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
MAY LINGER THROUGH THE DAY ON SUN.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES YIELDS MAINLY
QUIET BOATING WEATHER.

TUE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS SHIFT TO THE S...AND WHILE QUIET
BOATING WEATHER IS LIKELY TO DOMINATE...THERE IS A LOW CHANCE THAT
INCREASING SEAS AND WINDS WILL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 030835
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
435 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TODAY. BIG CHANGES IN THE
FORECAST FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. IT IS NOW LOOKING MORE LIKELY FOR
AT LEAST SOME SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ANY RAINFALL
WILL COME TO AN END SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS
WITH WARMING CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE.
EXPECTING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE LIGHT...
SO LIGHT WINDS WITH SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING ALONG THE COASTS LATE
THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST BUT REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER
THE WEATHER OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND FORMS ANOTHER WAVE ALONG A FRONT TO OUR SOUTH.
THIS SHOULD GENERATE ANOTHER AREA OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THAT
APPROACH FROM OUR SOUTH.

INDEPENDENCE DAY...
HUGE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. THE CHARGE LEAD BY PREVIOUS RUNS OF
THE GFS...HAS BEEN TAKEN UP BY THE REST OF THE 03/00Z GUIDANCE
SUITE. MODEL SOLUTIONS NOW FEATURE AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP MID LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE PROXIMITY OF THIS TROUGH HAS
SHIFTED THE PROJECTED TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE FARTHER NORTH FROM
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. GFS REMAINS THE MOST ROBUST...WITH THE
SLOWEST TIMING. FAVORED A CONSENSUS APPROACH...AS THE DETAILS ARE
STILL SOMEWHAT MURKY.

DESPITE THE CONSISTENT SHIFT AMONG ALL THE GUIDANCE MEMBERS...
DECIDED TO ONLY TREND THE FORECAST WETTER...RATHER THAN GOING WITH
THE WASHOUT FROM PRIOR RUNS OF THE GFS. HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE
CLOSER TO THE SOUTH COAST OF NEW ENGLAND. SINCE THIS IS MORE OF A
WINTER-TIME SETUP...WENT WITH RAIN INSTEAD OF SHOWERS. THAT
SAID...STILL NOT EXPECTING A WASHOUT AS THERE IS A LOT OF LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR TO OVERCOME. STAY TUNED FOR MORE POTENTIAL CHANGES
TO THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

 * RAIN ENDS SATURDAY NIGHT.
 * HIGH PRESSURE AND WARMING CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
 * UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN MID-LATE NEXT WEEK.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...THE MOST RECENT GFS OPERATIONAL
GFS REMAINS THE MORE AMPLIFIED OUTLIER IN THE SHORT TERM WITH THE
DEEPENING OF A SHORTWAVE AND LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT THIS WEEKEND.
THIS OVERAMPLIFCATION CONTINUES BEYOND THE WEEKEND LOOKING AT THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THEREFORE...WILL BE LEANING AWAY FROM THE GFS
WITH THIS LONG TERM UPDATE AND APPLYING A BLEND OF THE GEFS/ECENS
AND PERSISTENCE WITH THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF.

A NEAR ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL SLOWLY GIVE WAY TO A BUILDING RIDGE
ACROSS THE NE...AS DEEPENING CUTOFF ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE
CONTINUOUSLY FEEDS WARM ADVECTION INTO THE RIDGE.  THEREFORE...THE
MODERATING TEMPERATURE/DRY WX PATTERN WE HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK STILL LOOKS LIKE A GOOD STARTING POINT.  BY MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK...IT IS A MATTER OF THE INFLUENCE OF THIS CUTOFF.
THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION OF A MORE E SHIFT IN THE CUTOFF...WHICH
WOULD SUGGEST A LONGER UNSETTLED PERIOD. WHILE OTHERS ARE FURTHER
W...AND SRN NEW ENGLAND REMAINS IN THE ZONAL FLOW WITHIN THE SE
QUADRANT OF THE CUTOFF.  IN ANY CASE...COOLER AND MORE PERIODIC WET
WX IS POSSIBLE IN COMPARISON TO THE EARLY WEEK.

DETAILS...

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...UPPER LVL WAVE WILL BE SLIDING ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE ARE TWO SFC FEATURES TO WATCH.
THE FIRST...SAT NIGHT IS AN OCEAN LOW PRES WAVE MOVING OFFSHORE
WHICH...COULD LEAD TO A FEW REMAINING SHOWERS. THE SECOND IS A
WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SUN. IN EITHER CASE...OVERALL PWATS
IN THE COLUMN ARE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS AND THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT
OF DRY AIR WITH IN THE LOWEST 300HPA. IN EITHER CASE...AN ISOLATED
SHOWER IS LIKELY TO BE MOST RAINFALL TO CONTEND WITH. H85 TEMPS
NEAR +10C SUGGEST TEMPS NEAR NORMAL...SO HIGHS ON SUN REMAIN IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.

MON INTO TUE...WITH UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDING OVER FROM THE
W...COMBINING WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH...EXPECT HIGH PRES AND DRY WX
TO PREVAIL. TEMPS WILL BE WARMING THROUGH THEE PERIOD...ALONG WITH
RISING HUMIDITY. H85 TEMPS ARE CLOSER TO +15C BY TUE.
THEREFORE...HIGHS RANGING IN THE 80S WILL BE FORECAST.

WED...THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF WAVES EJECTING FROM THE STRONG
CUTOFF WELL TO THE W WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. INCREASING
COLUMN MOISTURE WITH PWATS APPROACHING 2.0 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL...COOLING H5 TEMPS AND LEFTOVER WARM/MOIST LOWER LEVELS
SUGGEST DECREASING STATIC STABILITY. THEREFORE...WITH THE WAVE AND
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT...COULD SEE DEVELOPMENT OF T-STORMS AND
SHOWERS. SHEAR IS NOT TOO STRONG AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL LIKELY
NEED TO MONITOR THIS AS WE GET CLOSER.

THU AND FRI...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH DURING THIS PERIOD AS IT
WILL DEPEND ON HOW CLOSE THE UPPER CUTOFF GETS TO THE NE CONUS.
THE FRONT WILL STALL IN THE VICINITY AND PROVIDE A FOCUS...BUT
EXACTLY HOW MANY WAVE/HOW STRONG AND WHEN THEY OCCUR WILL HAVE TO
BE BETTER DEFINED ONCE THE CUTOFF DEVELOPS AND BECOMES BETTER
SAMPLED.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR TO START. MVFR POSSIBLE IN
SCATTERED AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SAT NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SOME RAIN...MAINLY ACROSS SE MA/RI
WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END.  ANY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO
VFR THROUGH THE NIGHT.

MON INTO TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WINDS AND
SEAS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TO
OUR SOUTH SHOULD LEAD TO BUILDING SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED DUE TO ROUGH SEAS. ONLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK
AND TIMING OF THIS LOW PRESSURE.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM
EASTERLY TO NE AS LOW PRES MOVES E OF THE WATERS.  WIND GUSTS MAY
APPROACH 20-25 KT THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT IT WILL TAKE SEAS ON THE
WATERS S AND SE OF NEW ENGLAND INTO SUN TO DECLINE FROM 5-7 FT BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS.  THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
MAY LINGER THROUGH THE DAY ON SUN.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES YIELDS MAINLY
QUIET BOATING WEATHER.

TUE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS SHIFT TO THE S...AND WHILE QUIET
BOATING WEATHER IS LIKELY TO DOMINATE...THERE IS A LOW CHANCE THAT
INCREASING SEAS AND WINDS WILL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KALY 030806
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
406 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TODAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER...ALONG WITH COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY TO THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF RAIN OR
SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
90. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 4 AM EDT...SKIES REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE LOWER/MID 40S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...WITH MAINLY 50S ELSEWHERE.

EXPECT MAINLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY...WITH TEMPS ABOUT 2-3 DEGREES
WARMER THAN THURSDAY...REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 IN MOST
VALLEYS...AND 70-75 ACROSS MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH SOME
OF THE HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT
MAY ONLY REACH THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

...SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE SATURDAY FORECAST...

FRI NT...CLEAR AND COOL TO START...THEN INCREASING/THICKENING
CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 50S FOR MOST
AREAS...EXCEPT PERHAPS 45-50 ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.

SAT-SAT NT...IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE INTERACTION BETWEEN TWO UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES WILL NEGATIVELY IMPACT OUR WEATHER FOR AT LEAST A
PORTION OF SATURDAY. THE SOUTHERN IMPULSE APPEARS TO SHEAR OUT AND
LIFT FURTHER NORTHWARD...BRINGING SHOWERS OR EVEN A PERIOD OF
STEADY RAIN TO AREAS NEAR AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
90...ESP FROM AROUND MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. NEARLY
ALL NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED NORTHWARD WITH THIS FEATURE AND
ASSOCIATED RAINFALL...ALTHOUGH THE GFS APPEARS MOST AGGRESSIVE
WITH QPF...AS IT IMPLIES A FAIRLY SOAKING RAINFALL FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION. THE GFS LATELY HAS BEEN TOO WET WITH QPF...SO HAVE SIDED
CLOSER TO A LIGHTER NAM/ECMWF BLEND OF QPF. NEVERTHELESS...THIS
STILL WOULD GIVE A PERIOD OF STEADY LIGHT/MODERATE RAIN TO AT
LEAST THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...AGAIN
MAINLY FROM MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY/MID AFTERNOON. THE CAPITAL
REGION AND BERKSHIRES WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THIS
POTENTIAL STEADIER RAINFALL...WITH LIKELY POPS INDICATED FROM
ABOUT I-90 SOUTH. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FUTURE MODEL TRENDS TO SEE
IF THIS STEADIER RAIN SHIELD TRENDS EVEN FURTHER NORTH...OR
ACTUALLY BACKS SOUTHWARD YET AGAIN. IT APPEARS THAT THE TIMING OF
THIS SOUTHERN IMPULSE MAY BE JUST QUICK ENOUGH FOR THE STEADIER
RAIN TO TAPER OFF BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...ESP CLOSER TO
I-90...AND POSSIBLY AROUND SUNSET EVEN TO THE SOUTH. SO...DESPITE
SOME POTENTIALLY WET WEATHER DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...THERE
REMAINS A CHANCE THAT RAIN ENDS BY OR SHORTLY AFTER NIGHTFALL. THE
NORTHERN IMPULSE...ALTHOUGH STILL STRONG...SHOULD MOVE ACROSS
LATER SAT NT OR EARLY SUNDAY. HOWEVER...MUCH OF THE MOISTURE WILL
BE SHUNTED EAST OF THIS SECOND IMPULSE BY THE LEAD ONE...AND THE
CURRENT TIMING WOULD ALSO BRING IT THROUGH AT NIGHT WITH MINIMAL
INSTABILITY...THEREFORE HAVE NOT INDICATED ANY THUNDER OR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS FOR LATER SAT NT.

WITH THE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TOWARD MORE CLOUDS AND SOME
RAIN...HAVE ALSO LOWERED MAX TEMPS...RATHER SIGNIFICANTLY...WITH
ONLY LOWER/MID 70S EXPECTED FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-90...AND 65-70 TO
THE SOUTH. AGAIN...DEPENDING ON THE NORTHERN SHIELD OF STEADIER
RAIN...MAX TEMPS COULD BE ADJUSTED UP OR DOWN YET AGAIN. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT...SHOULD THE STEADIER RAIN PERSIST LONGER AND
FURTHER NORTH...THAT SOME AREAS MAY ONLY REMAIN IN THE LOWER/MID
60S ON SATURDAY. FOR SAT NT...DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY CLEARING
DEVELOPS...AND IF SAT MAX TEMPS REMAIN ON THE COOLER SIDE...IT
MAY BE QUITE CHILLY AS A BRIEF WINDOW OF DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING ENSUES. EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID 50S IN
MANY AREAS...ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME 40S...ESP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT AND INTO THE BERKSHIRES. AREAS OF FOG
COULD FORM LATE AT NIGHT.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...THE SECOND IMPULSE SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION IN THE MORNING...WITH RISING MID TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS IN
ITS WAKE. HOWEVER...THE ASSOCIATED COLD POOL MAY STILL BE CLOSE
ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO TO DEVELOP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN VT LATER
SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...SLIGHT CHC POPS
HAVE BEEN INDICATED IN THIS AREA. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY WARMER
WITH MAX TEMPS REACHING THE LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MAINLY CLEAR FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH MIN TEMPS
FALLING INTO THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO START OFF DRY AS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.
THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL. EXPECT HIGHS ON MONDAY TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S
WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

A RETURN TO UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WHILE A COASTAL SYSTEM MOVES
NORTHEAST ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER
80S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL PROVIDE CLEARING
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT. DESPITE A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS
IN PLACE...SOME RADIATIONAL FOG FORMATION WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOME
SPOTS. CONFIDENCE FOR FOG IS LOW...SO WILL ONLY MENTION MVFR VSBYS
FOR NOW AT KGFL/KPSF FROM 08Z-11Z...WITH PATCHY FOG NEAR KALB DUE
TO POSSIBLE FOG FORMING ALONG THE MOHAWK RIVER.

OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH ONLY A FEW FAIR
WEATHER CU AROUND FOR FRIDAY.

WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AROUND 7 KTS OR LESS THROUGH FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT TODAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY TO THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF RAIN OR
SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
90. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. THEN...LOW PRESSURE
PASSING SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MAINLY LIGHT
RAIN FOR AREAS NEAR AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90.
RAINFALL AMTS IN THIS REGION SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM ONE
TENTH...TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS
ARE POSSIBLE...ESP ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS.
FURTHER NORTH...RAINFALL AMTS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER ONE
TENTH OF AN INCH.

RIVER LEVELS SHOULD GENERALLY FALL TODAY THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY...THEN MAY HOLD STEADY OR RISE SLIGHTLY SAT AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE RAIN.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IRL/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/IRL/KL
HYDROLOGY...IRL/KL



000
FXUS61 KALY 030806
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
406 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TODAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER...ALONG WITH COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY TO THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF RAIN OR
SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
90. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 4 AM EDT...SKIES REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE LOWER/MID 40S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...WITH MAINLY 50S ELSEWHERE.

EXPECT MAINLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY...WITH TEMPS ABOUT 2-3 DEGREES
WARMER THAN THURSDAY...REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 IN MOST
VALLEYS...AND 70-75 ACROSS MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH SOME
OF THE HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT
MAY ONLY REACH THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

...SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE SATURDAY FORECAST...

FRI NT...CLEAR AND COOL TO START...THEN INCREASING/THICKENING
CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 50S FOR MOST
AREAS...EXCEPT PERHAPS 45-50 ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.

SAT-SAT NT...IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE INTERACTION BETWEEN TWO UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES WILL NEGATIVELY IMPACT OUR WEATHER FOR AT LEAST A
PORTION OF SATURDAY. THE SOUTHERN IMPULSE APPEARS TO SHEAR OUT AND
LIFT FURTHER NORTHWARD...BRINGING SHOWERS OR EVEN A PERIOD OF
STEADY RAIN TO AREAS NEAR AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
90...ESP FROM AROUND MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. NEARLY
ALL NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED NORTHWARD WITH THIS FEATURE AND
ASSOCIATED RAINFALL...ALTHOUGH THE GFS APPEARS MOST AGGRESSIVE
WITH QPF...AS IT IMPLIES A FAIRLY SOAKING RAINFALL FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION. THE GFS LATELY HAS BEEN TOO WET WITH QPF...SO HAVE SIDED
CLOSER TO A LIGHTER NAM/ECMWF BLEND OF QPF. NEVERTHELESS...THIS
STILL WOULD GIVE A PERIOD OF STEADY LIGHT/MODERATE RAIN TO AT
LEAST THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...AGAIN
MAINLY FROM MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY/MID AFTERNOON. THE CAPITAL
REGION AND BERKSHIRES WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THIS
POTENTIAL STEADIER RAINFALL...WITH LIKELY POPS INDICATED FROM
ABOUT I-90 SOUTH. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FUTURE MODEL TRENDS TO SEE
IF THIS STEADIER RAIN SHIELD TRENDS EVEN FURTHER NORTH...OR
ACTUALLY BACKS SOUTHWARD YET AGAIN. IT APPEARS THAT THE TIMING OF
THIS SOUTHERN IMPULSE MAY BE JUST QUICK ENOUGH FOR THE STEADIER
RAIN TO TAPER OFF BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...ESP CLOSER TO
I-90...AND POSSIBLY AROUND SUNSET EVEN TO THE SOUTH. SO...DESPITE
SOME POTENTIALLY WET WEATHER DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...THERE
REMAINS A CHANCE THAT RAIN ENDS BY OR SHORTLY AFTER NIGHTFALL. THE
NORTHERN IMPULSE...ALTHOUGH STILL STRONG...SHOULD MOVE ACROSS
LATER SAT NT OR EARLY SUNDAY. HOWEVER...MUCH OF THE MOISTURE WILL
BE SHUNTED EAST OF THIS SECOND IMPULSE BY THE LEAD ONE...AND THE
CURRENT TIMING WOULD ALSO BRING IT THROUGH AT NIGHT WITH MINIMAL
INSTABILITY...THEREFORE HAVE NOT INDICATED ANY THUNDER OR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS FOR LATER SAT NT.

WITH THE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TOWARD MORE CLOUDS AND SOME
RAIN...HAVE ALSO LOWERED MAX TEMPS...RATHER SIGNIFICANTLY...WITH
ONLY LOWER/MID 70S EXPECTED FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-90...AND 65-70 TO
THE SOUTH. AGAIN...DEPENDING ON THE NORTHERN SHIELD OF STEADIER
RAIN...MAX TEMPS COULD BE ADJUSTED UP OR DOWN YET AGAIN. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT...SHOULD THE STEADIER RAIN PERSIST LONGER AND
FURTHER NORTH...THAT SOME AREAS MAY ONLY REMAIN IN THE LOWER/MID
60S ON SATURDAY. FOR SAT NT...DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY CLEARING
DEVELOPS...AND IF SAT MAX TEMPS REMAIN ON THE COOLER SIDE...IT
MAY BE QUITE CHILLY AS A BRIEF WINDOW OF DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING ENSUES. EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID 50S IN
MANY AREAS...ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME 40S...ESP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT AND INTO THE BERKSHIRES. AREAS OF FOG
COULD FORM LATE AT NIGHT.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...THE SECOND IMPULSE SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION IN THE MORNING...WITH RISING MID TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS IN
ITS WAKE. HOWEVER...THE ASSOCIATED COLD POOL MAY STILL BE CLOSE
ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO TO DEVELOP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN VT LATER
SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...SLIGHT CHC POPS
HAVE BEEN INDICATED IN THIS AREA. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY WARMER
WITH MAX TEMPS REACHING THE LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MAINLY CLEAR FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH MIN TEMPS
FALLING INTO THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO START OFF DRY AS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.
THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL. EXPECT HIGHS ON MONDAY TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S
WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

A RETURN TO UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WHILE A COASTAL SYSTEM MOVES
NORTHEAST ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER
80S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL PROVIDE CLEARING
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT. DESPITE A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS
IN PLACE...SOME RADIATIONAL FOG FORMATION WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOME
SPOTS. CONFIDENCE FOR FOG IS LOW...SO WILL ONLY MENTION MVFR VSBYS
FOR NOW AT KGFL/KPSF FROM 08Z-11Z...WITH PATCHY FOG NEAR KALB DUE
TO POSSIBLE FOG FORMING ALONG THE MOHAWK RIVER.

OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH ONLY A FEW FAIR
WEATHER CU AROUND FOR FRIDAY.

WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AROUND 7 KTS OR LESS THROUGH FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT TODAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY TO THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF RAIN OR
SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
90. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. THEN...LOW PRESSURE
PASSING SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MAINLY LIGHT
RAIN FOR AREAS NEAR AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90.
RAINFALL AMTS IN THIS REGION SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM ONE
TENTH...TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS
ARE POSSIBLE...ESP ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS.
FURTHER NORTH...RAINFALL AMTS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER ONE
TENTH OF AN INCH.

RIVER LEVELS SHOULD GENERALLY FALL TODAY THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY...THEN MAY HOLD STEADY OR RISE SLIGHTLY SAT AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE RAIN.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IRL/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/IRL/KL
HYDROLOGY...IRL/KL




000
FXUS61 KOKX 030734
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
334 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TODAY...THEN GIVES WAY TO LOW PRESSURE THAT IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A WEAK LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT WILL THEN LIFT SLOWLY UP THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY
AND POSSIBLY LINGER INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
INITIAL SHORTWAVE DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING...WITH
WEAK RIDGE ALOFT BUILDING IN BEHIND.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA TODAY. SATELLITE INDICATES
CLEARING ACROSS THE AREA...AND MODELS PROG PLENTY OF DRY AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE TODAY.

MOS TEMPS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...AND EXPECT HIGHS TO RISE TO
AROUND 80.

THERE IS MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPSTREAM TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TRACK TOWARD THE AREA THIS TIME
FRAME...WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST AND PASSING JUST SOUTH
OF LONG ISLAND LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS CLOSE WITH
REGARD TO SFC LOW TRACK...WITH CMC SLOWER.

THE FORECAST TREND IS WETTER AS ANALYSIS OF 00Z MODEL SUITE
INDICATES PLENTY OF LIFT OUT AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...AND TO THE
NORTH OF THE SFC LOW.

CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT...WITH MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES
SATURDAY. AFTER COLLAB WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL MAKE THE JUMP
TO LIKELY POPS SATURDAY DUE TO THIS WETTER CONSENSUS.

TEMPS TONIGHT WILL SETTLE IN THE UPPER 50S TO THE MIDDLE 60S AS
CLOUDS INCREASE.

THEN...COOLER READINGS SEEM LIKELY SATURDAY DUE TO CLOUDS...RAIN AND
NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW. EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE ONLY TO THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER TO MID 70S...WELL BELOW NORMAL. THE AREA IS OBVIOUSLY
ON THE COOL SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM AND NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
INSTABILITY IS NOTED. STRATIFORM RAIN.

THE LOW AND UPPER TROUGH PASS EAST SATURDAY NIGHT. WOULD ANTICIPATE
IMPROVING CONDITIONS DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS RAIN ENDS
AND SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY SHOULD FEATURE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS. COULD SEE SOME AFTERNOON CU ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AS CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTS ALOFT AND AS A WEAK
THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPS.

SOME CHANGES ARE NOW IN THE OFFING FOR WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY A DRY MID
WEEK FORECAST. FIRST...UPPER RIDGING WILL PASS ACROSS SUNDAY NIGHT
AND PASS TO THE NORTHEAST ON MON...ALLOWING HIGH CLOUDS FROM A WEAK
DISTURBANCE LIFTING NORTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TO SPREAD IN
MON INTO MON EVENING. THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD EVENTUALLY ARRIVE LATE
MON NIGHT INTO TUE WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP.

THEN AN UPPER TROUGH TRAVERSING SOUTHERN CANADA WILL DRIVE A COLD
FRONT TOWARD THE AREA ON WED. WITH GLOBAL MODELS INDICATING QUASI-
ZONAL WSW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
STATES...THE TAIL END OF THIS FRONT SHOULD BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY
AS WELL...WITH A SERIES OF CONVECTIVELY GENERATED MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES RIDING ALONG IT. THIS WILL MEAN CONTINUED CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION BOTH DIURNAL AND NON-DIURNAL FROM WED INTO
THU...DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THESE DISTURBANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
MORNING...SLIDING OFFSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER WAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. KISP MAY BRIEFLY DROP TO MVFR IN
FOG...BUT DRIER AIR WORKING IN FROM THE NORTH SHOULD KEEP THIS
SHORTLIVED.

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECASTS...ALTHOUGH
TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2 HOURS. DIRECTION AT
KISP/KBDR/KGON MAY BE 10-20 DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF FORECAST
DUE TO HYBRID SYNOPTIC/SEABREEZE FLOW.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. LIGHT SE FLOW...BECOMING E-NE LATE.
.SATURDAY...MVFR LIKELY WITH RAIN DEVELOPING. LOW CHC OF IFR.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TODAY...WINDS WILL REMAIN
RATHER LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA WATERS. FAIRLY TRANQUIL SEAS CAN BE
EXPECTED AS WELL...MAINLY 2 TO 3 FEET IN SWELL TODAY OVER THE OCEAN
WATERS.

BY TONIGHT...WINDS WILL TURN TOWARD THE EAST AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
THAT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS FROM THE WEST. THIS LOW PASSES NEARBY
SATURDAY. AS SUCH...WINDS INCREASE AS THEY BACK TO THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST. OVER THE OCEAN...WINDS MAY APPROACH SCA THRESHOLDS.
NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THOUGH IN THIS OCCURRING...SO WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY HEADLINES.

SEAS BUILD LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. HOWEVER...NOT
TOO CONFIDENT IN REACHING 5 FEET UNTIL POSSIBLY SAT EVENING.

WINDS AND SEAS LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE...RESULTING
IN LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN BELOW A 1/2 INCH SATURDAY.
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED.

SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION COULD OCCUR AT SOME POINT DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK LOW AND WARM FRONT MOVE UP THE COAST
ON TUE...THEN AS A COLD  FRONT APPROACHES AND STALLS NEARBY WED INTO
THU. PREDICTABILITY IS TOO LOW TO OFFER ANY SPECIFICS ATTM.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A RECENT FULL MOON...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 3/4 TO 1 1/2
FT ARE NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED AT
THE PEAK OF THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MINOR
BENCHMARKS COULD BRIEFLY BE TOUCHED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF
NASSAU COUNTY TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY SATURDAY NIGHT. IN
ADDITION...WINDS INCREASE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY FROM THE
NORTHEAST...SO THE DAYTIME HIGH TIDES MAY NEED TO BE MONITORED AS
WELL.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/PW
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...24
MARINE...GOODMAN/PW
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/PW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...PW




000
FXUS61 KOKX 030734
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
334 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TODAY...THEN GIVES WAY TO LOW PRESSURE THAT IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A WEAK LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT WILL THEN LIFT SLOWLY UP THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY
AND POSSIBLY LINGER INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
INITIAL SHORTWAVE DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING...WITH
WEAK RIDGE ALOFT BUILDING IN BEHIND.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA TODAY. SATELLITE INDICATES
CLEARING ACROSS THE AREA...AND MODELS PROG PLENTY OF DRY AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE TODAY.

MOS TEMPS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...AND EXPECT HIGHS TO RISE TO
AROUND 80.

THERE IS MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPSTREAM TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TRACK TOWARD THE AREA THIS TIME
FRAME...WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST AND PASSING JUST SOUTH
OF LONG ISLAND LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS CLOSE WITH
REGARD TO SFC LOW TRACK...WITH CMC SLOWER.

THE FORECAST TREND IS WETTER AS ANALYSIS OF 00Z MODEL SUITE
INDICATES PLENTY OF LIFT OUT AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...AND TO THE
NORTH OF THE SFC LOW.

CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT...WITH MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES
SATURDAY. AFTER COLLAB WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL MAKE THE JUMP
TO LIKELY POPS SATURDAY DUE TO THIS WETTER CONSENSUS.

TEMPS TONIGHT WILL SETTLE IN THE UPPER 50S TO THE MIDDLE 60S AS
CLOUDS INCREASE.

THEN...COOLER READINGS SEEM LIKELY SATURDAY DUE TO CLOUDS...RAIN AND
NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW. EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE ONLY TO THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER TO MID 70S...WELL BELOW NORMAL. THE AREA IS OBVIOUSLY
ON THE COOL SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM AND NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
INSTABILITY IS NOTED. STRATIFORM RAIN.

THE LOW AND UPPER TROUGH PASS EAST SATURDAY NIGHT. WOULD ANTICIPATE
IMPROVING CONDITIONS DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS RAIN ENDS
AND SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY SHOULD FEATURE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS. COULD SEE SOME AFTERNOON CU ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AS CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTS ALOFT AND AS A WEAK
THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPS.

SOME CHANGES ARE NOW IN THE OFFING FOR WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY A DRY MID
WEEK FORECAST. FIRST...UPPER RIDGING WILL PASS ACROSS SUNDAY NIGHT
AND PASS TO THE NORTHEAST ON MON...ALLOWING HIGH CLOUDS FROM A WEAK
DISTURBANCE LIFTING NORTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TO SPREAD IN
MON INTO MON EVENING. THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD EVENTUALLY ARRIVE LATE
MON NIGHT INTO TUE WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP.

THEN AN UPPER TROUGH TRAVERSING SOUTHERN CANADA WILL DRIVE A COLD
FRONT TOWARD THE AREA ON WED. WITH GLOBAL MODELS INDICATING QUASI-
ZONAL WSW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
STATES...THE TAIL END OF THIS FRONT SHOULD BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY
AS WELL...WITH A SERIES OF CONVECTIVELY GENERATED MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES RIDING ALONG IT. THIS WILL MEAN CONTINUED CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION BOTH DIURNAL AND NON-DIURNAL FROM WED INTO
THU...DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THESE DISTURBANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
MORNING...SLIDING OFFSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER WAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. KISP MAY BRIEFLY DROP TO MVFR IN
FOG...BUT DRIER AIR WORKING IN FROM THE NORTH SHOULD KEEP THIS
SHORTLIVED.

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECASTS...ALTHOUGH
TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2 HOURS. DIRECTION AT
KISP/KBDR/KGON MAY BE 10-20 DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF FORECAST
DUE TO HYBRID SYNOPTIC/SEABREEZE FLOW.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. LIGHT SE FLOW...BECOMING E-NE LATE.
.SATURDAY...MVFR LIKELY WITH RAIN DEVELOPING. LOW CHC OF IFR.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TODAY...WINDS WILL REMAIN
RATHER LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA WATERS. FAIRLY TRANQUIL SEAS CAN BE
EXPECTED AS WELL...MAINLY 2 TO 3 FEET IN SWELL TODAY OVER THE OCEAN
WATERS.

BY TONIGHT...WINDS WILL TURN TOWARD THE EAST AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
THAT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS FROM THE WEST. THIS LOW PASSES NEARBY
SATURDAY. AS SUCH...WINDS INCREASE AS THEY BACK TO THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST. OVER THE OCEAN...WINDS MAY APPROACH SCA THRESHOLDS.
NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THOUGH IN THIS OCCURRING...SO WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY HEADLINES.

SEAS BUILD LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. HOWEVER...NOT
TOO CONFIDENT IN REACHING 5 FEET UNTIL POSSIBLY SAT EVENING.

WINDS AND SEAS LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE...RESULTING
IN LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN BELOW A 1/2 INCH SATURDAY.
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED.

SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION COULD OCCUR AT SOME POINT DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK LOW AND WARM FRONT MOVE UP THE COAST
ON TUE...THEN AS A COLD  FRONT APPROACHES AND STALLS NEARBY WED INTO
THU. PREDICTABILITY IS TOO LOW TO OFFER ANY SPECIFICS ATTM.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A RECENT FULL MOON...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 3/4 TO 1 1/2
FT ARE NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED AT
THE PEAK OF THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MINOR
BENCHMARKS COULD BRIEFLY BE TOUCHED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF
NASSAU COUNTY TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY SATURDAY NIGHT. IN
ADDITION...WINDS INCREASE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY FROM THE
NORTHEAST...SO THE DAYTIME HIGH TIDES MAY NEED TO BE MONITORED AS
WELL.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/PW
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...24
MARINE...GOODMAN/PW
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/PW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...PW




000
FXUS61 KOKX 030734
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
334 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TODAY...THEN GIVES WAY TO LOW PRESSURE THAT IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A WEAK LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT WILL THEN LIFT SLOWLY UP THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY
AND POSSIBLY LINGER INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
INITIAL SHORTWAVE DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING...WITH
WEAK RIDGE ALOFT BUILDING IN BEHIND.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA TODAY. SATELLITE INDICATES
CLEARING ACROSS THE AREA...AND MODELS PROG PLENTY OF DRY AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE TODAY.

MOS TEMPS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...AND EXPECT HIGHS TO RISE TO
AROUND 80.

THERE IS MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPSTREAM TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TRACK TOWARD THE AREA THIS TIME
FRAME...WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST AND PASSING JUST SOUTH
OF LONG ISLAND LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS CLOSE WITH
REGARD TO SFC LOW TRACK...WITH CMC SLOWER.

THE FORECAST TREND IS WETTER AS ANALYSIS OF 00Z MODEL SUITE
INDICATES PLENTY OF LIFT OUT AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...AND TO THE
NORTH OF THE SFC LOW.

CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT...WITH MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES
SATURDAY. AFTER COLLAB WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL MAKE THE JUMP
TO LIKELY POPS SATURDAY DUE TO THIS WETTER CONSENSUS.

TEMPS TONIGHT WILL SETTLE IN THE UPPER 50S TO THE MIDDLE 60S AS
CLOUDS INCREASE.

THEN...COOLER READINGS SEEM LIKELY SATURDAY DUE TO CLOUDS...RAIN AND
NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW. EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE ONLY TO THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER TO MID 70S...WELL BELOW NORMAL. THE AREA IS OBVIOUSLY
ON THE COOL SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM AND NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
INSTABILITY IS NOTED. STRATIFORM RAIN.

THE LOW AND UPPER TROUGH PASS EAST SATURDAY NIGHT. WOULD ANTICIPATE
IMPROVING CONDITIONS DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS RAIN ENDS
AND SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY SHOULD FEATURE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS. COULD SEE SOME AFTERNOON CU ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AS CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTS ALOFT AND AS A WEAK
THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPS.

SOME CHANGES ARE NOW IN THE OFFING FOR WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY A DRY MID
WEEK FORECAST. FIRST...UPPER RIDGING WILL PASS ACROSS SUNDAY NIGHT
AND PASS TO THE NORTHEAST ON MON...ALLOWING HIGH CLOUDS FROM A WEAK
DISTURBANCE LIFTING NORTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TO SPREAD IN
MON INTO MON EVENING. THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD EVENTUALLY ARRIVE LATE
MON NIGHT INTO TUE WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP.

THEN AN UPPER TROUGH TRAVERSING SOUTHERN CANADA WILL DRIVE A COLD
FRONT TOWARD THE AREA ON WED. WITH GLOBAL MODELS INDICATING QUASI-
ZONAL WSW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
STATES...THE TAIL END OF THIS FRONT SHOULD BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY
AS WELL...WITH A SERIES OF CONVECTIVELY GENERATED MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES RIDING ALONG IT. THIS WILL MEAN CONTINUED CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION BOTH DIURNAL AND NON-DIURNAL FROM WED INTO
THU...DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THESE DISTURBANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
MORNING...SLIDING OFFSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER WAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. KISP MAY BRIEFLY DROP TO MVFR IN
FOG...BUT DRIER AIR WORKING IN FROM THE NORTH SHOULD KEEP THIS
SHORTLIVED.

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECASTS...ALTHOUGH
TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2 HOURS. DIRECTION AT
KISP/KBDR/KGON MAY BE 10-20 DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF FORECAST
DUE TO HYBRID SYNOPTIC/SEABREEZE FLOW.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. LIGHT SE FLOW...BECOMING E-NE LATE.
.SATURDAY...MVFR LIKELY WITH RAIN DEVELOPING. LOW CHC OF IFR.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TODAY...WINDS WILL REMAIN
RATHER LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA WATERS. FAIRLY TRANQUIL SEAS CAN BE
EXPECTED AS WELL...MAINLY 2 TO 3 FEET IN SWELL TODAY OVER THE OCEAN
WATERS.

BY TONIGHT...WINDS WILL TURN TOWARD THE EAST AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
THAT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS FROM THE WEST. THIS LOW PASSES NEARBY
SATURDAY. AS SUCH...WINDS INCREASE AS THEY BACK TO THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST. OVER THE OCEAN...WINDS MAY APPROACH SCA THRESHOLDS.
NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THOUGH IN THIS OCCURRING...SO WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY HEADLINES.

SEAS BUILD LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. HOWEVER...NOT
TOO CONFIDENT IN REACHING 5 FEET UNTIL POSSIBLY SAT EVENING.

WINDS AND SEAS LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE...RESULTING
IN LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN BELOW A 1/2 INCH SATURDAY.
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED.

SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION COULD OCCUR AT SOME POINT DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK LOW AND WARM FRONT MOVE UP THE COAST
ON TUE...THEN AS A COLD  FRONT APPROACHES AND STALLS NEARBY WED INTO
THU. PREDICTABILITY IS TOO LOW TO OFFER ANY SPECIFICS ATTM.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A RECENT FULL MOON...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 3/4 TO 1 1/2
FT ARE NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED AT
THE PEAK OF THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MINOR
BENCHMARKS COULD BRIEFLY BE TOUCHED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF
NASSAU COUNTY TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY SATURDAY NIGHT. IN
ADDITION...WINDS INCREASE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY FROM THE
NORTHEAST...SO THE DAYTIME HIGH TIDES MAY NEED TO BE MONITORED AS
WELL.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/PW
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...24
MARINE...GOODMAN/PW
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/PW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...PW




000
FXUS61 KOKX 030734
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
334 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TODAY...THEN GIVES WAY TO LOW PRESSURE THAT IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A WEAK LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT WILL THEN LIFT SLOWLY UP THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY
AND POSSIBLY LINGER INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
INITIAL SHORTWAVE DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING...WITH
WEAK RIDGE ALOFT BUILDING IN BEHIND.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA TODAY. SATELLITE INDICATES
CLEARING ACROSS THE AREA...AND MODELS PROG PLENTY OF DRY AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE TODAY.

MOS TEMPS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...AND EXPECT HIGHS TO RISE TO
AROUND 80.

THERE IS MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPSTREAM TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TRACK TOWARD THE AREA THIS TIME
FRAME...WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST AND PASSING JUST SOUTH
OF LONG ISLAND LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS CLOSE WITH
REGARD TO SFC LOW TRACK...WITH CMC SLOWER.

THE FORECAST TREND IS WETTER AS ANALYSIS OF 00Z MODEL SUITE
INDICATES PLENTY OF LIFT OUT AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...AND TO THE
NORTH OF THE SFC LOW.

CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT...WITH MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES
SATURDAY. AFTER COLLAB WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL MAKE THE JUMP
TO LIKELY POPS SATURDAY DUE TO THIS WETTER CONSENSUS.

TEMPS TONIGHT WILL SETTLE IN THE UPPER 50S TO THE MIDDLE 60S AS
CLOUDS INCREASE.

THEN...COOLER READINGS SEEM LIKELY SATURDAY DUE TO CLOUDS...RAIN AND
NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW. EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE ONLY TO THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER TO MID 70S...WELL BELOW NORMAL. THE AREA IS OBVIOUSLY
ON THE COOL SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM AND NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
INSTABILITY IS NOTED. STRATIFORM RAIN.

THE LOW AND UPPER TROUGH PASS EAST SATURDAY NIGHT. WOULD ANTICIPATE
IMPROVING CONDITIONS DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS RAIN ENDS
AND SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY SHOULD FEATURE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS. COULD SEE SOME AFTERNOON CU ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AS CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTS ALOFT AND AS A WEAK
THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPS.

SOME CHANGES ARE NOW IN THE OFFING FOR WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY A DRY MID
WEEK FORECAST. FIRST...UPPER RIDGING WILL PASS ACROSS SUNDAY NIGHT
AND PASS TO THE NORTHEAST ON MON...ALLOWING HIGH CLOUDS FROM A WEAK
DISTURBANCE LIFTING NORTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TO SPREAD IN
MON INTO MON EVENING. THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD EVENTUALLY ARRIVE LATE
MON NIGHT INTO TUE WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP.

THEN AN UPPER TROUGH TRAVERSING SOUTHERN CANADA WILL DRIVE A COLD
FRONT TOWARD THE AREA ON WED. WITH GLOBAL MODELS INDICATING QUASI-
ZONAL WSW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
STATES...THE TAIL END OF THIS FRONT SHOULD BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY
AS WELL...WITH A SERIES OF CONVECTIVELY GENERATED MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES RIDING ALONG IT. THIS WILL MEAN CONTINUED CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION BOTH DIURNAL AND NON-DIURNAL FROM WED INTO
THU...DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THESE DISTURBANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
MORNING...SLIDING OFFSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER WAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. KISP MAY BRIEFLY DROP TO MVFR IN
FOG...BUT DRIER AIR WORKING IN FROM THE NORTH SHOULD KEEP THIS
SHORTLIVED.

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECASTS...ALTHOUGH
TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2 HOURS. DIRECTION AT
KISP/KBDR/KGON MAY BE 10-20 DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF FORECAST
DUE TO HYBRID SYNOPTIC/SEABREEZE FLOW.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. LIGHT SE FLOW...BECOMING E-NE LATE.
.SATURDAY...MVFR LIKELY WITH RAIN DEVELOPING. LOW CHC OF IFR.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TODAY...WINDS WILL REMAIN
RATHER LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA WATERS. FAIRLY TRANQUIL SEAS CAN BE
EXPECTED AS WELL...MAINLY 2 TO 3 FEET IN SWELL TODAY OVER THE OCEAN
WATERS.

BY TONIGHT...WINDS WILL TURN TOWARD THE EAST AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
THAT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS FROM THE WEST. THIS LOW PASSES NEARBY
SATURDAY. AS SUCH...WINDS INCREASE AS THEY BACK TO THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST. OVER THE OCEAN...WINDS MAY APPROACH SCA THRESHOLDS.
NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THOUGH IN THIS OCCURRING...SO WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY HEADLINES.

SEAS BUILD LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. HOWEVER...NOT
TOO CONFIDENT IN REACHING 5 FEET UNTIL POSSIBLY SAT EVENING.

WINDS AND SEAS LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE...RESULTING
IN LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN BELOW A 1/2 INCH SATURDAY.
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED.

SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION COULD OCCUR AT SOME POINT DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK LOW AND WARM FRONT MOVE UP THE COAST
ON TUE...THEN AS A COLD  FRONT APPROACHES AND STALLS NEARBY WED INTO
THU. PREDICTABILITY IS TOO LOW TO OFFER ANY SPECIFICS ATTM.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A RECENT FULL MOON...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 3/4 TO 1 1/2
FT ARE NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED AT
THE PEAK OF THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MINOR
BENCHMARKS COULD BRIEFLY BE TOUCHED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF
NASSAU COUNTY TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY SATURDAY NIGHT. IN
ADDITION...WINDS INCREASE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY FROM THE
NORTHEAST...SO THE DAYTIME HIGH TIDES MAY NEED TO BE MONITORED AS
WELL.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/PW
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...24
MARINE...GOODMAN/PW
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/PW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...PW




000
FXUS61 KOKX 030734
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
334 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TODAY...THEN GIVES WAY TO LOW PRESSURE THAT IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A WEAK LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT WILL THEN LIFT SLOWLY UP THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY
AND POSSIBLY LINGER INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
INITIAL SHORTWAVE DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING...WITH
WEAK RIDGE ALOFT BUILDING IN BEHIND.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA TODAY. SATELLITE INDICATES
CLEARING ACROSS THE AREA...AND MODELS PROG PLENTY OF DRY AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE TODAY.

MOS TEMPS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...AND EXPECT HIGHS TO RISE TO
AROUND 80.

THERE IS MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPSTREAM TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TRACK TOWARD THE AREA THIS TIME
FRAME...WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST AND PASSING JUST SOUTH
OF LONG ISLAND LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS CLOSE WITH
REGARD TO SFC LOW TRACK...WITH CMC SLOWER.

THE FORECAST TREND IS WETTER AS ANALYSIS OF 00Z MODEL SUITE
INDICATES PLENTY OF LIFT OUT AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...AND TO THE
NORTH OF THE SFC LOW.

CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT...WITH MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES
SATURDAY. AFTER COLLAB WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL MAKE THE JUMP
TO LIKELY POPS SATURDAY DUE TO THIS WETTER CONSENSUS.

TEMPS TONIGHT WILL SETTLE IN THE UPPER 50S TO THE MIDDLE 60S AS
CLOUDS INCREASE.

THEN...COOLER READINGS SEEM LIKELY SATURDAY DUE TO CLOUDS...RAIN AND
NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW. EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE ONLY TO THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER TO MID 70S...WELL BELOW NORMAL. THE AREA IS OBVIOUSLY
ON THE COOL SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM AND NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
INSTABILITY IS NOTED. STRATIFORM RAIN.

THE LOW AND UPPER TROUGH PASS EAST SATURDAY NIGHT. WOULD ANTICIPATE
IMPROVING CONDITIONS DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS RAIN ENDS
AND SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY SHOULD FEATURE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS. COULD SEE SOME AFTERNOON CU ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AS CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTS ALOFT AND AS A WEAK
THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPS.

SOME CHANGES ARE NOW IN THE OFFING FOR WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY A DRY MID
WEEK FORECAST. FIRST...UPPER RIDGING WILL PASS ACROSS SUNDAY NIGHT
AND PASS TO THE NORTHEAST ON MON...ALLOWING HIGH CLOUDS FROM A WEAK
DISTURBANCE LIFTING NORTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TO SPREAD IN
MON INTO MON EVENING. THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD EVENTUALLY ARRIVE LATE
MON NIGHT INTO TUE WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP.

THEN AN UPPER TROUGH TRAVERSING SOUTHERN CANADA WILL DRIVE A COLD
FRONT TOWARD THE AREA ON WED. WITH GLOBAL MODELS INDICATING QUASI-
ZONAL WSW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
STATES...THE TAIL END OF THIS FRONT SHOULD BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY
AS WELL...WITH A SERIES OF CONVECTIVELY GENERATED MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES RIDING ALONG IT. THIS WILL MEAN CONTINUED CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION BOTH DIURNAL AND NON-DIURNAL FROM WED INTO
THU...DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THESE DISTURBANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
MORNING...SLIDING OFFSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER WAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. KISP MAY BRIEFLY DROP TO MVFR IN
FOG...BUT DRIER AIR WORKING IN FROM THE NORTH SHOULD KEEP THIS
SHORTLIVED.

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECASTS...ALTHOUGH
TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2 HOURS. DIRECTION AT
KISP/KBDR/KGON MAY BE 10-20 DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF FORECAST
DUE TO HYBRID SYNOPTIC/SEABREEZE FLOW.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. LIGHT SE FLOW...BECOMING E-NE LATE.
.SATURDAY...MVFR LIKELY WITH RAIN DEVELOPING. LOW CHC OF IFR.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TODAY...WINDS WILL REMAIN
RATHER LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA WATERS. FAIRLY TRANQUIL SEAS CAN BE
EXPECTED AS WELL...MAINLY 2 TO 3 FEET IN SWELL TODAY OVER THE OCEAN
WATERS.

BY TONIGHT...WINDS WILL TURN TOWARD THE EAST AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
THAT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS FROM THE WEST. THIS LOW PASSES NEARBY
SATURDAY. AS SUCH...WINDS INCREASE AS THEY BACK TO THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST. OVER THE OCEAN...WINDS MAY APPROACH SCA THRESHOLDS.
NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THOUGH IN THIS OCCURRING...SO WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY HEADLINES.

SEAS BUILD LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. HOWEVER...NOT
TOO CONFIDENT IN REACHING 5 FEET UNTIL POSSIBLY SAT EVENING.

WINDS AND SEAS LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE...RESULTING
IN LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN BELOW A 1/2 INCH SATURDAY.
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED.

SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION COULD OCCUR AT SOME POINT DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK LOW AND WARM FRONT MOVE UP THE COAST
ON TUE...THEN AS A COLD  FRONT APPROACHES AND STALLS NEARBY WED INTO
THU. PREDICTABILITY IS TOO LOW TO OFFER ANY SPECIFICS ATTM.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A RECENT FULL MOON...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 3/4 TO 1 1/2
FT ARE NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED AT
THE PEAK OF THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MINOR
BENCHMARKS COULD BRIEFLY BE TOUCHED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF
NASSAU COUNTY TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY SATURDAY NIGHT. IN
ADDITION...WINDS INCREASE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY FROM THE
NORTHEAST...SO THE DAYTIME HIGH TIDES MAY NEED TO BE MONITORED AS
WELL.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/PW
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...24
MARINE...GOODMAN/PW
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/PW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...PW




000
FXUS61 KOKX 030606
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
206 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST ACROSS
THE AREA ON FRIDAY. A SECOND WEAK LOW WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH ON
INDEPENDENCE DAY. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AREA OF RAIN HAS MOVED EAST. PORTIONS OF LONG ISLAND THAT
RECEIVED RAIN COULD SEE FOG DEVELOP. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS MAY JUST BE ENOUGH FOR PATCHY FOG TO BE OBSERVED.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 50S IN THE
INTERIOR...TO THE LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE. THIS IS ACTUALLY SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
SHORT WAVE RIDGING ON FRI WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO BUILD EAST THROUGH FRI NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT PIECE OF
SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE LATTER OF
WHICH WILL SEND A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES BY DAYBREAK SAT.

FRI INTO FRI NIGHT WILL BE DRY WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S...AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. THIS IS
AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM
THE SW FRI NIGHT.

THERE IS MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON FRI.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECAST FOR THE 4TH OF JULY IS TRICKY WITH MODELS IN DISAGREEMENT
REGARDING OUR CHANCES OF RAINFALL. FOR THE 12Z SUITE...NAM IS DRY
DURING THE DAY AND NIGHT...WITH GFS/ECMWF/CMC SHOWING SOME QPF
OUTPUT. MOST OF THE MODELS WOULD IMPLY THAT THE MORNING HOURS ARE
MORE LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY AND ANY RAINFALL WOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE SOUTH. STILL...WILL BE KEEPING
AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES FOR THE
MORNING. FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES
AND COULD TAP INTO ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM FOR MAINLY THE NW ZONES. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
SHOWER FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES DUE TO THE PROXIMITY TO THE OFFSHORE
LOW. IN ANY CASE...THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A WASHOUT...BUT THE
CHANCES OF A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY DOESN`T LOOK TOO HIGH AT THIS POINT.
WENT SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN A MAV/NAM MOS BLEND FOR HIGH TEMPS.

SUNDAY ON THE OTHER HAND LOOKS LIKE IT WILL FEATURE A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE...BUT THERE
COULD BE SOME CLOUD BUILDUP IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE EASTERN ZONES
AS THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS CYCLONIC. THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN AT LEAST
LOOKS TOO DRY FOR A MENTION OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 80S.

REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD PROBABLY REMAINS DRY FOR THE MOST PART
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. ECMWF REMAINS A QUICK OUTLIER WITH
BRINGING IN RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH STARTING LATE IN THE DAY
MONDAY. WILL GO WITH DRY WEATHER FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT LEAVE IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE GRIDS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHEN THE OTHER GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SOME
SHOWERS COULD OCCUR. HIGHS IN THE 80S THROUGH THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH
WITH THE CLOUD COVER...THURSDAY IS FORECAST TO BE ONLY AROUND 80.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
MORNING...SLIDING OFFSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER WAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. KISP MAY BRIEFLY DROP TO MVFR IN
FOG...BUT DRIER AIR WORKING IN FROM THE NORTH SHOULD KEEP THIS
SHORTLIVED.

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECASTS...ALTHOUGH
TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2 HOURS. DIRECTION AT
KISP/KBDR/KGON MAY BE 10-20 DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF FORECAST
DUE TO HYBRID SYNOPTIC/SEABREEZE FLOW.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. LIGHT SE FLOW...BECOMING E-NE LATE.
.SATURDAY...MVFR LIKELY WITH RAIN DEVELOPING. LOW CHC OF IFR.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH FRI NIGHT AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES
SOUTH OF THE WATERS TONIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO NORTH ON
FRI.

WINDS AND SEAS LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE...RESULTING
IN LIGHT WINDS. A SWELL COULD POTENTIALLY BRING OCEAN SEAS CLOSE
TO 5 FT DURING SATURDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS LOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A RECENT FULL MOON...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 3/4 TO 1 1/2
FT ARE NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED
AT THE PEAK OF THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDES THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MINOR
BENCHMARKS COULD BRIEFLY BE TOUCHED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF
NASSAU COUNTY THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KOKX 030606
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
206 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST ACROSS
THE AREA ON FRIDAY. A SECOND WEAK LOW WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH ON
INDEPENDENCE DAY. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AREA OF RAIN HAS MOVED EAST. PORTIONS OF LONG ISLAND THAT
RECEIVED RAIN COULD SEE FOG DEVELOP. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS MAY JUST BE ENOUGH FOR PATCHY FOG TO BE OBSERVED.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 50S IN THE
INTERIOR...TO THE LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE. THIS IS ACTUALLY SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
SHORT WAVE RIDGING ON FRI WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO BUILD EAST THROUGH FRI NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT PIECE OF
SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE LATTER OF
WHICH WILL SEND A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES BY DAYBREAK SAT.

FRI INTO FRI NIGHT WILL BE DRY WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S...AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. THIS IS
AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM
THE SW FRI NIGHT.

THERE IS MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON FRI.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECAST FOR THE 4TH OF JULY IS TRICKY WITH MODELS IN DISAGREEMENT
REGARDING OUR CHANCES OF RAINFALL. FOR THE 12Z SUITE...NAM IS DRY
DURING THE DAY AND NIGHT...WITH GFS/ECMWF/CMC SHOWING SOME QPF
OUTPUT. MOST OF THE MODELS WOULD IMPLY THAT THE MORNING HOURS ARE
MORE LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY AND ANY RAINFALL WOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE SOUTH. STILL...WILL BE KEEPING
AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES FOR THE
MORNING. FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES
AND COULD TAP INTO ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM FOR MAINLY THE NW ZONES. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
SHOWER FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES DUE TO THE PROXIMITY TO THE OFFSHORE
LOW. IN ANY CASE...THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A WASHOUT...BUT THE
CHANCES OF A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY DOESN`T LOOK TOO HIGH AT THIS POINT.
WENT SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN A MAV/NAM MOS BLEND FOR HIGH TEMPS.

SUNDAY ON THE OTHER HAND LOOKS LIKE IT WILL FEATURE A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE...BUT THERE
COULD BE SOME CLOUD BUILDUP IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE EASTERN ZONES
AS THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS CYCLONIC. THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN AT LEAST
LOOKS TOO DRY FOR A MENTION OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 80S.

REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD PROBABLY REMAINS DRY FOR THE MOST PART
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. ECMWF REMAINS A QUICK OUTLIER WITH
BRINGING IN RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH STARTING LATE IN THE DAY
MONDAY. WILL GO WITH DRY WEATHER FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT LEAVE IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE GRIDS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHEN THE OTHER GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SOME
SHOWERS COULD OCCUR. HIGHS IN THE 80S THROUGH THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH
WITH THE CLOUD COVER...THURSDAY IS FORECAST TO BE ONLY AROUND 80.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
MORNING...SLIDING OFFSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER WAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. KISP MAY BRIEFLY DROP TO MVFR IN
FOG...BUT DRIER AIR WORKING IN FROM THE NORTH SHOULD KEEP THIS
SHORTLIVED.

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECASTS...ALTHOUGH
TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2 HOURS. DIRECTION AT
KISP/KBDR/KGON MAY BE 10-20 DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF FORECAST
DUE TO HYBRID SYNOPTIC/SEABREEZE FLOW.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. LIGHT SE FLOW...BECOMING E-NE LATE.
.SATURDAY...MVFR LIKELY WITH RAIN DEVELOPING. LOW CHC OF IFR.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH FRI NIGHT AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES
SOUTH OF THE WATERS TONIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO NORTH ON
FRI.

WINDS AND SEAS LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE...RESULTING
IN LIGHT WINDS. A SWELL COULD POTENTIALLY BRING OCEAN SEAS CLOSE
TO 5 FT DURING SATURDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS LOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A RECENT FULL MOON...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 3/4 TO 1 1/2
FT ARE NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED
AT THE PEAK OF THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDES THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MINOR
BENCHMARKS COULD BRIEFLY BE TOUCHED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF
NASSAU COUNTY THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KOKX 030606
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
206 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST ACROSS
THE AREA ON FRIDAY. A SECOND WEAK LOW WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH ON
INDEPENDENCE DAY. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AREA OF RAIN HAS MOVED EAST. PORTIONS OF LONG ISLAND THAT
RECEIVED RAIN COULD SEE FOG DEVELOP. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS MAY JUST BE ENOUGH FOR PATCHY FOG TO BE OBSERVED.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 50S IN THE
INTERIOR...TO THE LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE. THIS IS ACTUALLY SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
SHORT WAVE RIDGING ON FRI WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO BUILD EAST THROUGH FRI NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT PIECE OF
SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE LATTER OF
WHICH WILL SEND A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES BY DAYBREAK SAT.

FRI INTO FRI NIGHT WILL BE DRY WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S...AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. THIS IS
AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM
THE SW FRI NIGHT.

THERE IS MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON FRI.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECAST FOR THE 4TH OF JULY IS TRICKY WITH MODELS IN DISAGREEMENT
REGARDING OUR CHANCES OF RAINFALL. FOR THE 12Z SUITE...NAM IS DRY
DURING THE DAY AND NIGHT...WITH GFS/ECMWF/CMC SHOWING SOME QPF
OUTPUT. MOST OF THE MODELS WOULD IMPLY THAT THE MORNING HOURS ARE
MORE LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY AND ANY RAINFALL WOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE SOUTH. STILL...WILL BE KEEPING
AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES FOR THE
MORNING. FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES
AND COULD TAP INTO ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM FOR MAINLY THE NW ZONES. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
SHOWER FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES DUE TO THE PROXIMITY TO THE OFFSHORE
LOW. IN ANY CASE...THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A WASHOUT...BUT THE
CHANCES OF A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY DOESN`T LOOK TOO HIGH AT THIS POINT.
WENT SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN A MAV/NAM MOS BLEND FOR HIGH TEMPS.

SUNDAY ON THE OTHER HAND LOOKS LIKE IT WILL FEATURE A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE...BUT THERE
COULD BE SOME CLOUD BUILDUP IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE EASTERN ZONES
AS THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS CYCLONIC. THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN AT LEAST
LOOKS TOO DRY FOR A MENTION OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 80S.

REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD PROBABLY REMAINS DRY FOR THE MOST PART
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. ECMWF REMAINS A QUICK OUTLIER WITH
BRINGING IN RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH STARTING LATE IN THE DAY
MONDAY. WILL GO WITH DRY WEATHER FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT LEAVE IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE GRIDS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHEN THE OTHER GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SOME
SHOWERS COULD OCCUR. HIGHS IN THE 80S THROUGH THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH
WITH THE CLOUD COVER...THURSDAY IS FORECAST TO BE ONLY AROUND 80.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
MORNING...SLIDING OFFSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER WAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. KISP MAY BRIEFLY DROP TO MVFR IN
FOG...BUT DRIER AIR WORKING IN FROM THE NORTH SHOULD KEEP THIS
SHORTLIVED.

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECASTS...ALTHOUGH
TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2 HOURS. DIRECTION AT
KISP/KBDR/KGON MAY BE 10-20 DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF FORECAST
DUE TO HYBRID SYNOPTIC/SEABREEZE FLOW.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. LIGHT SE FLOW...BECOMING E-NE LATE.
.SATURDAY...MVFR LIKELY WITH RAIN DEVELOPING. LOW CHC OF IFR.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH FRI NIGHT AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES
SOUTH OF THE WATERS TONIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO NORTH ON
FRI.

WINDS AND SEAS LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE...RESULTING
IN LIGHT WINDS. A SWELL COULD POTENTIALLY BRING OCEAN SEAS CLOSE
TO 5 FT DURING SATURDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS LOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A RECENT FULL MOON...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 3/4 TO 1 1/2
FT ARE NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED
AT THE PEAK OF THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDES THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MINOR
BENCHMARKS COULD BRIEFLY BE TOUCHED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF
NASSAU COUNTY THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KOKX 030606
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
206 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST ACROSS
THE AREA ON FRIDAY. A SECOND WEAK LOW WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH ON
INDEPENDENCE DAY. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AREA OF RAIN HAS MOVED EAST. PORTIONS OF LONG ISLAND THAT
RECEIVED RAIN COULD SEE FOG DEVELOP. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS MAY JUST BE ENOUGH FOR PATCHY FOG TO BE OBSERVED.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 50S IN THE
INTERIOR...TO THE LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE. THIS IS ACTUALLY SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
SHORT WAVE RIDGING ON FRI WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO BUILD EAST THROUGH FRI NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT PIECE OF
SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE LATTER OF
WHICH WILL SEND A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES BY DAYBREAK SAT.

FRI INTO FRI NIGHT WILL BE DRY WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S...AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. THIS IS
AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM
THE SW FRI NIGHT.

THERE IS MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON FRI.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECAST FOR THE 4TH OF JULY IS TRICKY WITH MODELS IN DISAGREEMENT
REGARDING OUR CHANCES OF RAINFALL. FOR THE 12Z SUITE...NAM IS DRY
DURING THE DAY AND NIGHT...WITH GFS/ECMWF/CMC SHOWING SOME QPF
OUTPUT. MOST OF THE MODELS WOULD IMPLY THAT THE MORNING HOURS ARE
MORE LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY AND ANY RAINFALL WOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE SOUTH. STILL...WILL BE KEEPING
AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES FOR THE
MORNING. FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES
AND COULD TAP INTO ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM FOR MAINLY THE NW ZONES. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
SHOWER FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES DUE TO THE PROXIMITY TO THE OFFSHORE
LOW. IN ANY CASE...THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A WASHOUT...BUT THE
CHANCES OF A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY DOESN`T LOOK TOO HIGH AT THIS POINT.
WENT SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN A MAV/NAM MOS BLEND FOR HIGH TEMPS.

SUNDAY ON THE OTHER HAND LOOKS LIKE IT WILL FEATURE A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE...BUT THERE
COULD BE SOME CLOUD BUILDUP IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE EASTERN ZONES
AS THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS CYCLONIC. THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN AT LEAST
LOOKS TOO DRY FOR A MENTION OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 80S.

REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD PROBABLY REMAINS DRY FOR THE MOST PART
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. ECMWF REMAINS A QUICK OUTLIER WITH
BRINGING IN RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH STARTING LATE IN THE DAY
MONDAY. WILL GO WITH DRY WEATHER FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT LEAVE IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE GRIDS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHEN THE OTHER GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SOME
SHOWERS COULD OCCUR. HIGHS IN THE 80S THROUGH THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH
WITH THE CLOUD COVER...THURSDAY IS FORECAST TO BE ONLY AROUND 80.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
MORNING...SLIDING OFFSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER WAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. KISP MAY BRIEFLY DROP TO MVFR IN
FOG...BUT DRIER AIR WORKING IN FROM THE NORTH SHOULD KEEP THIS
SHORTLIVED.

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECASTS...ALTHOUGH
TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2 HOURS. DIRECTION AT
KISP/KBDR/KGON MAY BE 10-20 DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF FORECAST
DUE TO HYBRID SYNOPTIC/SEABREEZE FLOW.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. LIGHT SE FLOW...BECOMING E-NE LATE.
.SATURDAY...MVFR LIKELY WITH RAIN DEVELOPING. LOW CHC OF IFR.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH FRI NIGHT AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES
SOUTH OF THE WATERS TONIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO NORTH ON
FRI.

WINDS AND SEAS LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE...RESULTING
IN LIGHT WINDS. A SWELL COULD POTENTIALLY BRING OCEAN SEAS CLOSE
TO 5 FT DURING SATURDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS LOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A RECENT FULL MOON...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 3/4 TO 1 1/2
FT ARE NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED
AT THE PEAK OF THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDES THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MINOR
BENCHMARKS COULD BRIEFLY BE TOUCHED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF
NASSAU COUNTY THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KOKX 030606
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
206 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST ACROSS
THE AREA ON FRIDAY. A SECOND WEAK LOW WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH ON
INDEPENDENCE DAY. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AREA OF RAIN HAS MOVED EAST. PORTIONS OF LONG ISLAND THAT
RECEIVED RAIN COULD SEE FOG DEVELOP. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS MAY JUST BE ENOUGH FOR PATCHY FOG TO BE OBSERVED.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 50S IN THE
INTERIOR...TO THE LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE. THIS IS ACTUALLY SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
SHORT WAVE RIDGING ON FRI WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO BUILD EAST THROUGH FRI NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT PIECE OF
SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE LATTER OF
WHICH WILL SEND A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES BY DAYBREAK SAT.

FRI INTO FRI NIGHT WILL BE DRY WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S...AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. THIS IS
AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM
THE SW FRI NIGHT.

THERE IS MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON FRI.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECAST FOR THE 4TH OF JULY IS TRICKY WITH MODELS IN DISAGREEMENT
REGARDING OUR CHANCES OF RAINFALL. FOR THE 12Z SUITE...NAM IS DRY
DURING THE DAY AND NIGHT...WITH GFS/ECMWF/CMC SHOWING SOME QPF
OUTPUT. MOST OF THE MODELS WOULD IMPLY THAT THE MORNING HOURS ARE
MORE LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY AND ANY RAINFALL WOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE SOUTH. STILL...WILL BE KEEPING
AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES FOR THE
MORNING. FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES
AND COULD TAP INTO ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM FOR MAINLY THE NW ZONES. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
SHOWER FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES DUE TO THE PROXIMITY TO THE OFFSHORE
LOW. IN ANY CASE...THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A WASHOUT...BUT THE
CHANCES OF A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY DOESN`T LOOK TOO HIGH AT THIS POINT.
WENT SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN A MAV/NAM MOS BLEND FOR HIGH TEMPS.

SUNDAY ON THE OTHER HAND LOOKS LIKE IT WILL FEATURE A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE...BUT THERE
COULD BE SOME CLOUD BUILDUP IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE EASTERN ZONES
AS THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS CYCLONIC. THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN AT LEAST
LOOKS TOO DRY FOR A MENTION OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 80S.

REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD PROBABLY REMAINS DRY FOR THE MOST PART
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. ECMWF REMAINS A QUICK OUTLIER WITH
BRINGING IN RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH STARTING LATE IN THE DAY
MONDAY. WILL GO WITH DRY WEATHER FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT LEAVE IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE GRIDS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHEN THE OTHER GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SOME
SHOWERS COULD OCCUR. HIGHS IN THE 80S THROUGH THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH
WITH THE CLOUD COVER...THURSDAY IS FORECAST TO BE ONLY AROUND 80.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
MORNING...SLIDING OFFSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER WAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. KISP MAY BRIEFLY DROP TO MVFR IN
FOG...BUT DRIER AIR WORKING IN FROM THE NORTH SHOULD KEEP THIS
SHORTLIVED.

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECASTS...ALTHOUGH
TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2 HOURS. DIRECTION AT
KISP/KBDR/KGON MAY BE 10-20 DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF FORECAST
DUE TO HYBRID SYNOPTIC/SEABREEZE FLOW.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. LIGHT SE FLOW...BECOMING E-NE LATE.
.SATURDAY...MVFR LIKELY WITH RAIN DEVELOPING. LOW CHC OF IFR.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH FRI NIGHT AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES
SOUTH OF THE WATERS TONIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO NORTH ON
FRI.

WINDS AND SEAS LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE...RESULTING
IN LIGHT WINDS. A SWELL COULD POTENTIALLY BRING OCEAN SEAS CLOSE
TO 5 FT DURING SATURDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS LOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A RECENT FULL MOON...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 3/4 TO 1 1/2
FT ARE NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED
AT THE PEAK OF THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDES THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MINOR
BENCHMARKS COULD BRIEFLY BE TOUCHED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF
NASSAU COUNTY THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KOKX 030606
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
206 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST ACROSS
THE AREA ON FRIDAY. A SECOND WEAK LOW WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH ON
INDEPENDENCE DAY. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AREA OF RAIN HAS MOVED EAST. PORTIONS OF LONG ISLAND THAT
RECEIVED RAIN COULD SEE FOG DEVELOP. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS MAY JUST BE ENOUGH FOR PATCHY FOG TO BE OBSERVED.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 50S IN THE
INTERIOR...TO THE LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE. THIS IS ACTUALLY SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
SHORT WAVE RIDGING ON FRI WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO BUILD EAST THROUGH FRI NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT PIECE OF
SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE LATTER OF
WHICH WILL SEND A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES BY DAYBREAK SAT.

FRI INTO FRI NIGHT WILL BE DRY WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S...AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. THIS IS
AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM
THE SW FRI NIGHT.

THERE IS MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON FRI.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECAST FOR THE 4TH OF JULY IS TRICKY WITH MODELS IN DISAGREEMENT
REGARDING OUR CHANCES OF RAINFALL. FOR THE 12Z SUITE...NAM IS DRY
DURING THE DAY AND NIGHT...WITH GFS/ECMWF/CMC SHOWING SOME QPF
OUTPUT. MOST OF THE MODELS WOULD IMPLY THAT THE MORNING HOURS ARE
MORE LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY AND ANY RAINFALL WOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE SOUTH. STILL...WILL BE KEEPING
AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES FOR THE
MORNING. FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES
AND COULD TAP INTO ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM FOR MAINLY THE NW ZONES. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
SHOWER FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES DUE TO THE PROXIMITY TO THE OFFSHORE
LOW. IN ANY CASE...THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A WASHOUT...BUT THE
CHANCES OF A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY DOESN`T LOOK TOO HIGH AT THIS POINT.
WENT SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN A MAV/NAM MOS BLEND FOR HIGH TEMPS.

SUNDAY ON THE OTHER HAND LOOKS LIKE IT WILL FEATURE A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE...BUT THERE
COULD BE SOME CLOUD BUILDUP IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE EASTERN ZONES
AS THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS CYCLONIC. THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN AT LEAST
LOOKS TOO DRY FOR A MENTION OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 80S.

REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD PROBABLY REMAINS DRY FOR THE MOST PART
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. ECMWF REMAINS A QUICK OUTLIER WITH
BRINGING IN RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH STARTING LATE IN THE DAY
MONDAY. WILL GO WITH DRY WEATHER FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT LEAVE IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE GRIDS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHEN THE OTHER GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SOME
SHOWERS COULD OCCUR. HIGHS IN THE 80S THROUGH THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH
WITH THE CLOUD COVER...THURSDAY IS FORECAST TO BE ONLY AROUND 80.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
MORNING...SLIDING OFFSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER WAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. KISP MAY BRIEFLY DROP TO MVFR IN
FOG...BUT DRIER AIR WORKING IN FROM THE NORTH SHOULD KEEP THIS
SHORTLIVED.

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECASTS...ALTHOUGH
TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2 HOURS. DIRECTION AT
KISP/KBDR/KGON MAY BE 10-20 DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF FORECAST
DUE TO HYBRID SYNOPTIC/SEABREEZE FLOW.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. LIGHT SE FLOW...BECOMING E-NE LATE.
.SATURDAY...MVFR LIKELY WITH RAIN DEVELOPING. LOW CHC OF IFR.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH FRI NIGHT AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES
SOUTH OF THE WATERS TONIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO NORTH ON
FRI.

WINDS AND SEAS LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE...RESULTING
IN LIGHT WINDS. A SWELL COULD POTENTIALLY BRING OCEAN SEAS CLOSE
TO 5 FT DURING SATURDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS LOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A RECENT FULL MOON...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 3/4 TO 1 1/2
FT ARE NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED
AT THE PEAK OF THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDES THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MINOR
BENCHMARKS COULD BRIEFLY BE TOUCHED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF
NASSAU COUNTY THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KALY 030515
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
115 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY TO THE REGION. A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE COULD BRING AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ON
SATURDAY FOR AREAS MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.
DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 115 AM EDT...HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN AREAS CONTINUE
TO SHIFT FARTHER AWAY. TEMPS HAVE ALREADY COOLED INTO THE
MID/UPPER 40S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WHILE
COOLING INTO THE 50S FOR MOST OTHER AREAS...EXCEPT HOLDING IN THE
LOWER 60S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT...WHERE THE HIGHER CLOUDS PERSISTED LONGER AND PREVENT TEMPS
FROM FALLING MUCH.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD EASTWARD. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
SWING EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AS WELL. FORTUNATELY...THERE IS LITTLE
MOISTURE IN PLACE...SO AS THIS TROUGH MOVES ACROSS...ONLY SOME
PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS.

LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 40S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...TO LOWER/MID 50S
ELSEWHERE.

WINDS WILL TREND TOWARDS CALM OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FAVORED SHELTERED
VALLEYS AND LOCATIONS NEAR BODIES OF WATER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF A POPUP SHOWER/PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ON INDEPENDENCE
DAY/SATURDAY.

THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY RESULTING IN ANOTHER EXCELLENT
WEATHER DAY FEATURING DRY CONDITIONS AND HIGHS GENERALLY RANGING
FROM THE LOW 70S TO NEAR 80...WITH THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS IN THE
UPPER 60S AND A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY REACHING
INTO THE LOW 80S. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND 5 MPH.

THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST OF THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY...AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK
PIECE OF ENERGY IMPACT THE REGION FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. ANY
FORCING WITH THIS UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE LOOKS MARGINAL AT BEST
AND HAVE ONLY GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR A STRAY
SHOWER/PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. THIS UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER...WITH MOST AREAS PARTLY CLOUDY BUT STILL SEEING A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. WHILE THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME
WET WEATHER ON INDEPENDENCE DAY...IT APPEARS MOST LIKELY THAT IT
WILL BE DRY...ALTHOUGH AGAIN CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

ANY ONGOING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OVER IN TIME
FOR FIREWORKS SATURDAY NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPERATURES FALLING
INTO THE 60S ARE EXPECTED WITH EVENTUAL LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT
RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE REGION.

ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR
SUNDAY RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
70S TO LOW 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDING INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. MODELS INDICATING THE RIDGE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY PROVIDING SUNNY SKIES AND SEASONABLY
WARM TEMPERATURES. THE ECMWF IS SHOWING AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPING IN
THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...HEADING
TOWARDS OUR REGION MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THIS SOLUTION DOES NOT
AGREE WITH THE GFS/CMC WHICH BOTH KEEP THE STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE. SO
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION DRY CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT.

THE RIDGE THEN STARTS TO BREAK DOWN SOMEWHAT WITH UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS LOWERING SLIGHTLY FOR TUESDAY. WILL MENTION ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME DUE TO LACK OF ANY PROMINENT FORCING
MECHANISM. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL START TO RISE AS WELL...WITH
DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE 60S. COMBINED WITH TEMPS IN THE 80S IT
WILL START TO FEEL MUGGY AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF LOW HUMIDITY FOR
EARLY JULY.

THERE APPEARS TO BE A SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT POSSIBLY MOVE THROUGH...ALTHOUGH THIS
IS NOT CONSISTENT AMONG THE GUIDANCE. THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL BE AN IMPORTANT FACTOR IN DETERMINING THE TIMING/STRENGTH
OF THE NEXT POTENTIAL CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
ARRIVING. WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY...AS THIS IS WHEN IT
LOOKS LIKE THE RIDGE WILL COMPLETELY BREAK DOWN...ALLOWING FOR A
BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
BE NEAR NORMAL FROM MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL PROVIDE CLEARING
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT. DESPITE A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS
IN PLACE...SOME RADIATIONAL FOG FORMATION WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOME
SPOTS. CONFIDENCE FOR FOG IS LOW...SO WILL ONLY MENTION MVFR VSBYS
FOR NOW AT KGFL/KPSF FROM 08Z-11Z...WITH PATCHY FOG NEAR KALB DUE
TO POSSIBLE FOG FORMING ALONG THE MOHAWK RIVER.

OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH ONLY A FEW FAIR
WEATHER CU AROUND FOR FRIDAY.

WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AROUND 7 KTS OR LESS THROUGH FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY...

EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WILL
BE THE USUAL NEARLY FULL RECOVERY EACH OF THE NEXT SEVERAL NIGHTS
WITH LIGHT OR CALM WINDS...YIELDING TO THE FORMATION OF DEW. RH
VALUES WILL DROP EACH AFTERNOON INTO THE 30S IN THE VALLEYS/40S
HIGHER TERRAIN. SUNSHINE WILL PREVAIL ALTHOUGH WILL BE MIXED
WITH A GOOD DEAL OF AFTERNOON CLOUDINESS ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF ALBANY.

THE WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT MAINLY FROM A NORTH TO NORTHWEST
DIRECTION UNDER 10 MPH DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING PRIMARILY SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. BASIN-AVERAGED RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON
SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS. RIVER
LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IRL
NEAR TERM...IRL/KL/JPV
SHORT TERM...IRL
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...11/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/IRL
HYDROLOGY...IRL




000
FXUS61 KALY 030515
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
115 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY TO THE REGION. A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE COULD BRING AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ON
SATURDAY FOR AREAS MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.
DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 115 AM EDT...HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN AREAS CONTINUE
TO SHIFT FARTHER AWAY. TEMPS HAVE ALREADY COOLED INTO THE
MID/UPPER 40S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WHILE
COOLING INTO THE 50S FOR MOST OTHER AREAS...EXCEPT HOLDING IN THE
LOWER 60S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT...WHERE THE HIGHER CLOUDS PERSISTED LONGER AND PREVENT TEMPS
FROM FALLING MUCH.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD EASTWARD. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
SWING EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AS WELL. FORTUNATELY...THERE IS LITTLE
MOISTURE IN PLACE...SO AS THIS TROUGH MOVES ACROSS...ONLY SOME
PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS.

LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 40S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...TO LOWER/MID 50S
ELSEWHERE.

WINDS WILL TREND TOWARDS CALM OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FAVORED SHELTERED
VALLEYS AND LOCATIONS NEAR BODIES OF WATER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF A POPUP SHOWER/PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ON INDEPENDENCE
DAY/SATURDAY.

THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY RESULTING IN ANOTHER EXCELLENT
WEATHER DAY FEATURING DRY CONDITIONS AND HIGHS GENERALLY RANGING
FROM THE LOW 70S TO NEAR 80...WITH THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS IN THE
UPPER 60S AND A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY REACHING
INTO THE LOW 80S. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND 5 MPH.

THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST OF THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY...AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK
PIECE OF ENERGY IMPACT THE REGION FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. ANY
FORCING WITH THIS UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE LOOKS MARGINAL AT BEST
AND HAVE ONLY GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR A STRAY
SHOWER/PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. THIS UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER...WITH MOST AREAS PARTLY CLOUDY BUT STILL SEEING A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. WHILE THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME
WET WEATHER ON INDEPENDENCE DAY...IT APPEARS MOST LIKELY THAT IT
WILL BE DRY...ALTHOUGH AGAIN CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

ANY ONGOING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OVER IN TIME
FOR FIREWORKS SATURDAY NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPERATURES FALLING
INTO THE 60S ARE EXPECTED WITH EVENTUAL LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT
RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE REGION.

ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR
SUNDAY RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
70S TO LOW 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDING INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. MODELS INDICATING THE RIDGE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY PROVIDING SUNNY SKIES AND SEASONABLY
WARM TEMPERATURES. THE ECMWF IS SHOWING AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPING IN
THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...HEADING
TOWARDS OUR REGION MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THIS SOLUTION DOES NOT
AGREE WITH THE GFS/CMC WHICH BOTH KEEP THE STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE. SO
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION DRY CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT.

THE RIDGE THEN STARTS TO BREAK DOWN SOMEWHAT WITH UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS LOWERING SLIGHTLY FOR TUESDAY. WILL MENTION ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME DUE TO LACK OF ANY PROMINENT FORCING
MECHANISM. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL START TO RISE AS WELL...WITH
DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE 60S. COMBINED WITH TEMPS IN THE 80S IT
WILL START TO FEEL MUGGY AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF LOW HUMIDITY FOR
EARLY JULY.

THERE APPEARS TO BE A SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT POSSIBLY MOVE THROUGH...ALTHOUGH THIS
IS NOT CONSISTENT AMONG THE GUIDANCE. THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL BE AN IMPORTANT FACTOR IN DETERMINING THE TIMING/STRENGTH
OF THE NEXT POTENTIAL CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
ARRIVING. WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY...AS THIS IS WHEN IT
LOOKS LIKE THE RIDGE WILL COMPLETELY BREAK DOWN...ALLOWING FOR A
BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
BE NEAR NORMAL FROM MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL PROVIDE CLEARING
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT. DESPITE A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS
IN PLACE...SOME RADIATIONAL FOG FORMATION WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOME
SPOTS. CONFIDENCE FOR FOG IS LOW...SO WILL ONLY MENTION MVFR VSBYS
FOR NOW AT KGFL/KPSF FROM 08Z-11Z...WITH PATCHY FOG NEAR KALB DUE
TO POSSIBLE FOG FORMING ALONG THE MOHAWK RIVER.

OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH ONLY A FEW FAIR
WEATHER CU AROUND FOR FRIDAY.

WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AROUND 7 KTS OR LESS THROUGH FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY...

EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WILL
BE THE USUAL NEARLY FULL RECOVERY EACH OF THE NEXT SEVERAL NIGHTS
WITH LIGHT OR CALM WINDS...YIELDING TO THE FORMATION OF DEW. RH
VALUES WILL DROP EACH AFTERNOON INTO THE 30S IN THE VALLEYS/40S
HIGHER TERRAIN. SUNSHINE WILL PREVAIL ALTHOUGH WILL BE MIXED
WITH A GOOD DEAL OF AFTERNOON CLOUDINESS ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF ALBANY.

THE WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT MAINLY FROM A NORTH TO NORTHWEST
DIRECTION UNDER 10 MPH DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING PRIMARILY SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. BASIN-AVERAGED RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON
SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS. RIVER
LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IRL
NEAR TERM...IRL/KL/JPV
SHORT TERM...IRL
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...11/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/IRL
HYDROLOGY...IRL



000
FXUS61 KALY 030515
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
115 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY TO THE REGION. A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE COULD BRING AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ON
SATURDAY FOR AREAS MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.
DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 115 AM EDT...HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN AREAS CONTINUE
TO SHIFT FARTHER AWAY. TEMPS HAVE ALREADY COOLED INTO THE
MID/UPPER 40S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WHILE
COOLING INTO THE 50S FOR MOST OTHER AREAS...EXCEPT HOLDING IN THE
LOWER 60S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT...WHERE THE HIGHER CLOUDS PERSISTED LONGER AND PREVENT TEMPS
FROM FALLING MUCH.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD EASTWARD. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
SWING EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AS WELL. FORTUNATELY...THERE IS LITTLE
MOISTURE IN PLACE...SO AS THIS TROUGH MOVES ACROSS...ONLY SOME
PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS.

LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 40S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...TO LOWER/MID 50S
ELSEWHERE.

WINDS WILL TREND TOWARDS CALM OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FAVORED SHELTERED
VALLEYS AND LOCATIONS NEAR BODIES OF WATER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF A POPUP SHOWER/PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ON INDEPENDENCE
DAY/SATURDAY.

THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY RESULTING IN ANOTHER EXCELLENT
WEATHER DAY FEATURING DRY CONDITIONS AND HIGHS GENERALLY RANGING
FROM THE LOW 70S TO NEAR 80...WITH THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS IN THE
UPPER 60S AND A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY REACHING
INTO THE LOW 80S. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND 5 MPH.

THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST OF THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY...AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK
PIECE OF ENERGY IMPACT THE REGION FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. ANY
FORCING WITH THIS UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE LOOKS MARGINAL AT BEST
AND HAVE ONLY GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR A STRAY
SHOWER/PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. THIS UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER...WITH MOST AREAS PARTLY CLOUDY BUT STILL SEEING A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. WHILE THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME
WET WEATHER ON INDEPENDENCE DAY...IT APPEARS MOST LIKELY THAT IT
WILL BE DRY...ALTHOUGH AGAIN CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

ANY ONGOING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OVER IN TIME
FOR FIREWORKS SATURDAY NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPERATURES FALLING
INTO THE 60S ARE EXPECTED WITH EVENTUAL LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT
RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE REGION.

ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR
SUNDAY RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
70S TO LOW 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDING INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. MODELS INDICATING THE RIDGE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY PROVIDING SUNNY SKIES AND SEASONABLY
WARM TEMPERATURES. THE ECMWF IS SHOWING AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPING IN
THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...HEADING
TOWARDS OUR REGION MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THIS SOLUTION DOES NOT
AGREE WITH THE GFS/CMC WHICH BOTH KEEP THE STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE. SO
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION DRY CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT.

THE RIDGE THEN STARTS TO BREAK DOWN SOMEWHAT WITH UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS LOWERING SLIGHTLY FOR TUESDAY. WILL MENTION ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME DUE TO LACK OF ANY PROMINENT FORCING
MECHANISM. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL START TO RISE AS WELL...WITH
DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE 60S. COMBINED WITH TEMPS IN THE 80S IT
WILL START TO FEEL MUGGY AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF LOW HUMIDITY FOR
EARLY JULY.

THERE APPEARS TO BE A SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT POSSIBLY MOVE THROUGH...ALTHOUGH THIS
IS NOT CONSISTENT AMONG THE GUIDANCE. THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL BE AN IMPORTANT FACTOR IN DETERMINING THE TIMING/STRENGTH
OF THE NEXT POTENTIAL CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
ARRIVING. WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY...AS THIS IS WHEN IT
LOOKS LIKE THE RIDGE WILL COMPLETELY BREAK DOWN...ALLOWING FOR A
BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
BE NEAR NORMAL FROM MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL PROVIDE CLEARING
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT. DESPITE A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS
IN PLACE...SOME RADIATIONAL FOG FORMATION WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOME
SPOTS. CONFIDENCE FOR FOG IS LOW...SO WILL ONLY MENTION MVFR VSBYS
FOR NOW AT KGFL/KPSF FROM 08Z-11Z...WITH PATCHY FOG NEAR KALB DUE
TO POSSIBLE FOG FORMING ALONG THE MOHAWK RIVER.

OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH ONLY A FEW FAIR
WEATHER CU AROUND FOR FRIDAY.

WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AROUND 7 KTS OR LESS THROUGH FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY...

EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WILL
BE THE USUAL NEARLY FULL RECOVERY EACH OF THE NEXT SEVERAL NIGHTS
WITH LIGHT OR CALM WINDS...YIELDING TO THE FORMATION OF DEW. RH
VALUES WILL DROP EACH AFTERNOON INTO THE 30S IN THE VALLEYS/40S
HIGHER TERRAIN. SUNSHINE WILL PREVAIL ALTHOUGH WILL BE MIXED
WITH A GOOD DEAL OF AFTERNOON CLOUDINESS ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF ALBANY.

THE WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT MAINLY FROM A NORTH TO NORTHWEST
DIRECTION UNDER 10 MPH DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING PRIMARILY SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. BASIN-AVERAGED RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON
SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS. RIVER
LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IRL
NEAR TERM...IRL/KL/JPV
SHORT TERM...IRL
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...11/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/IRL
HYDROLOGY...IRL




000
FXUS61 KALY 030510
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
110 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY TO THE REGION. A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE COULD BRING AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ON
SATURDAY FOR AREAS MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.
DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1045 PM EDT...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION CONTINUES TO BUILD EASTWARD TONIGHT. AS THE HIGH CONTINUES
TO SHIFT CLOSER TO OUR REGION...CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT...BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY/MOSTLY CLEAR AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SOME THICKER HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IN PLACE FOR AREAS SOUTH
AND EAST OF ALBANY WILL DISSIPATE LATE TONIGHT.

TONIGHT WILL FEATURE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...ALLOWING
FOR A COOL NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

WINDS WILL TREND TOWARDS CALM OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FAVORED SHELTERED
VALLEYS AND LOCATIONS NEAR BODIES OF WATER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF A POPUP SHOWER/PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ON INDEPENDENCE
DAY/SATURDAY.

THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY RESULTING IN ANOTHER EXCELLENT
WEATHER DAY FEATURING DRY CONDITIONS AND HIGHS GENERALLY RANGING
FROM THE LOW 70S TO NEAR 80...WITH THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS IN THE
UPPER 60S AND A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY REACHING
INTO THE LOW 80S. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND 5 MPH.

THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST OF THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY...AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK
PIECE OF ENERGY IMPACT THE REGION FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. ANY
FORCING WITH THIS UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE LOOKS MARGINAL AT BEST
AND HAVE ONLY GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR A STRAY
SHOWER/PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. THIS UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER...WITH MOST AREAS PARTLY CLOUDY BUT STILL SEEING A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. WHILE THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME
WET WEATHER ON INDEPENDENCE DAY...IT APPEARS MOST LIKELY THAT IT
WILL BE DRY...ALTHOUGH AGAIN CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

ANY ONGOING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OVER IN TIME
FOR FIREWORKS SATURDAY NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPERATURES FALLING
INTO THE 60S ARE EXPECTED WITH EVENTUAL LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT
RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE REGION.

ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR
SUNDAY RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
70S TO LOW 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDING INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. MODELS INDICATING THE RIDGE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY PROVIDING SUNNY SKIES AND SEASONABLY
WARM TEMPERATURES. THE ECMWF IS SHOWING AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPING IN
THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...HEADING
TOWARDS OUR REGION MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THIS SOLUTION DOES NOT
AGREE WITH THE GFS/CMC WHICH BOTH KEEP THE STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE. SO
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION DRY CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT.

THE RIDGE THEN STARTS TO BREAK DOWN SOMEWHAT WITH UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS LOWERING SLIGHTLY FOR TUESDAY. WILL MENTION ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME DUE TO LACK OF ANY PROMINENT FORCING
MECHANISM. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL START TO RISE AS WELL...WITH
DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE 60S. COMBINED WITH TEMPS IN THE 80S IT
WILL START TO FEEL MUGGY AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF LOW HUMIDITY FOR
EARLY JULY.

THERE APPEARS TO BE A SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT POSSIBLY MOVE THROUGH...ALTHOUGH THIS
IS NOT CONSISTENT AMONG THE GUIDANCE. THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL BE AN IMPORTANT FACTOR IN DETERMINING THE TIMING/STRENGTH
OF THE NEXT POTENTIAL CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
ARRIVING. WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY...AS THIS IS WHEN IT
LOOKS LIKE THE RIDGE WILL COMPLETELY BREAK DOWN...ALLOWING FOR A
BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
BE NEAR NORMAL FROM MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL PROVIDE CLEARING
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT. DESPITE A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS
IN PLACE...SOME RADIATIONAL FOG FORMATION WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOME
SPOTS. CONFIDENCE FOR FOG IS LOW...SO WILL ONLY MENTION MVFR VSBYS
FOR NOW AT KGFL/KPSF FROM 08Z-11Z...WITH PATCHY FOG NEAR KALB DUE
TO POSSIBLE FOG FORMING ALONG THE MOHAWK RIVER.

OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH ONLY A FEW FAIR
WEATHER CU AROUND FOR FRIDAY.

WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AROUND 7 KTS OR LESS THROUGH FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY...

EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WILL
BE THE USUAL NEARLY FULL RECOVERY EACH OF THE NEXT SEVERAL NIGHTS
WITH LIGHT OR CALM WINDS...YIELDING TO THE FORMATION OF DEW. RH
VALUES WILL DROP EACH AFTERNOON INTO THE 30S IN THE VALLEYS/40S
HIGHER TERRAIN. SUNSHINE WILL PREVAIL ALTHOUGH WILL BE MIXED
WITH A GOOD DEAL OF AFTERNOON CLOUDINESS ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF ALBANY.

THE WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT MAINLY FROM A NORTH TO NORTHWEST
DIRECTION UNDER 10 MPH DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING PRIMARILY SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. BASIN-AVERAGED RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON
SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS. RIVER
LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IRL
NEAR TERM...IRL/JPV
SHORT TERM...IRL
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...11/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/IRL
HYDROLOGY...IRL



000
FXUS61 KALY 030510
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
110 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY TO THE REGION. A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE COULD BRING AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ON
SATURDAY FOR AREAS MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.
DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1045 PM EDT...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION CONTINUES TO BUILD EASTWARD TONIGHT. AS THE HIGH CONTINUES
TO SHIFT CLOSER TO OUR REGION...CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT...BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY/MOSTLY CLEAR AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SOME THICKER HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IN PLACE FOR AREAS SOUTH
AND EAST OF ALBANY WILL DISSIPATE LATE TONIGHT.

TONIGHT WILL FEATURE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...ALLOWING
FOR A COOL NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

WINDS WILL TREND TOWARDS CALM OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FAVORED SHELTERED
VALLEYS AND LOCATIONS NEAR BODIES OF WATER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF A POPUP SHOWER/PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ON INDEPENDENCE
DAY/SATURDAY.

THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY RESULTING IN ANOTHER EXCELLENT
WEATHER DAY FEATURING DRY CONDITIONS AND HIGHS GENERALLY RANGING
FROM THE LOW 70S TO NEAR 80...WITH THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS IN THE
UPPER 60S AND A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY REACHING
INTO THE LOW 80S. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND 5 MPH.

THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST OF THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY...AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK
PIECE OF ENERGY IMPACT THE REGION FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. ANY
FORCING WITH THIS UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE LOOKS MARGINAL AT BEST
AND HAVE ONLY GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR A STRAY
SHOWER/PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. THIS UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER...WITH MOST AREAS PARTLY CLOUDY BUT STILL SEEING A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. WHILE THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME
WET WEATHER ON INDEPENDENCE DAY...IT APPEARS MOST LIKELY THAT IT
WILL BE DRY...ALTHOUGH AGAIN CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

ANY ONGOING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OVER IN TIME
FOR FIREWORKS SATURDAY NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPERATURES FALLING
INTO THE 60S ARE EXPECTED WITH EVENTUAL LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT
RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE REGION.

ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR
SUNDAY RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
70S TO LOW 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDING INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. MODELS INDICATING THE RIDGE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY PROVIDING SUNNY SKIES AND SEASONABLY
WARM TEMPERATURES. THE ECMWF IS SHOWING AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPING IN
THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...HEADING
TOWARDS OUR REGION MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THIS SOLUTION DOES NOT
AGREE WITH THE GFS/CMC WHICH BOTH KEEP THE STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE. SO
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION DRY CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT.

THE RIDGE THEN STARTS TO BREAK DOWN SOMEWHAT WITH UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS LOWERING SLIGHTLY FOR TUESDAY. WILL MENTION ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME DUE TO LACK OF ANY PROMINENT FORCING
MECHANISM. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL START TO RISE AS WELL...WITH
DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE 60S. COMBINED WITH TEMPS IN THE 80S IT
WILL START TO FEEL MUGGY AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF LOW HUMIDITY FOR
EARLY JULY.

THERE APPEARS TO BE A SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT POSSIBLY MOVE THROUGH...ALTHOUGH THIS
IS NOT CONSISTENT AMONG THE GUIDANCE. THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL BE AN IMPORTANT FACTOR IN DETERMINING THE TIMING/STRENGTH
OF THE NEXT POTENTIAL CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
ARRIVING. WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY...AS THIS IS WHEN IT
LOOKS LIKE THE RIDGE WILL COMPLETELY BREAK DOWN...ALLOWING FOR A
BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
BE NEAR NORMAL FROM MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL PROVIDE CLEARING
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT. DESPITE A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS
IN PLACE...SOME RADIATIONAL FOG FORMATION WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOME
SPOTS. CONFIDENCE FOR FOG IS LOW...SO WILL ONLY MENTION MVFR VSBYS
FOR NOW AT KGFL/KPSF FROM 08Z-11Z...WITH PATCHY FOG NEAR KALB DUE
TO POSSIBLE FOG FORMING ALONG THE MOHAWK RIVER.

OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH ONLY A FEW FAIR
WEATHER CU AROUND FOR FRIDAY.

WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AROUND 7 KTS OR LESS THROUGH FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY...

EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WILL
BE THE USUAL NEARLY FULL RECOVERY EACH OF THE NEXT SEVERAL NIGHTS
WITH LIGHT OR CALM WINDS...YIELDING TO THE FORMATION OF DEW. RH
VALUES WILL DROP EACH AFTERNOON INTO THE 30S IN THE VALLEYS/40S
HIGHER TERRAIN. SUNSHINE WILL PREVAIL ALTHOUGH WILL BE MIXED
WITH A GOOD DEAL OF AFTERNOON CLOUDINESS ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF ALBANY.

THE WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT MAINLY FROM A NORTH TO NORTHWEST
DIRECTION UNDER 10 MPH DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING PRIMARILY SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. BASIN-AVERAGED RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON
SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS. RIVER
LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IRL
NEAR TERM...IRL/JPV
SHORT TERM...IRL
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...11/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/IRL
HYDROLOGY...IRL



000
FXUS61 KALY 030510
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
110 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY TO THE REGION. A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE COULD BRING AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ON
SATURDAY FOR AREAS MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.
DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1045 PM EDT...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION CONTINUES TO BUILD EASTWARD TONIGHT. AS THE HIGH CONTINUES
TO SHIFT CLOSER TO OUR REGION...CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT...BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY/MOSTLY CLEAR AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SOME THICKER HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IN PLACE FOR AREAS SOUTH
AND EAST OF ALBANY WILL DISSIPATE LATE TONIGHT.

TONIGHT WILL FEATURE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...ALLOWING
FOR A COOL NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

WINDS WILL TREND TOWARDS CALM OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FAVORED SHELTERED
VALLEYS AND LOCATIONS NEAR BODIES OF WATER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF A POPUP SHOWER/PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ON INDEPENDENCE
DAY/SATURDAY.

THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY RESULTING IN ANOTHER EXCELLENT
WEATHER DAY FEATURING DRY CONDITIONS AND HIGHS GENERALLY RANGING
FROM THE LOW 70S TO NEAR 80...WITH THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS IN THE
UPPER 60S AND A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY REACHING
INTO THE LOW 80S. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND 5 MPH.

THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST OF THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY...AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK
PIECE OF ENERGY IMPACT THE REGION FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. ANY
FORCING WITH THIS UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE LOOKS MARGINAL AT BEST
AND HAVE ONLY GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR A STRAY
SHOWER/PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. THIS UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER...WITH MOST AREAS PARTLY CLOUDY BUT STILL SEEING A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. WHILE THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME
WET WEATHER ON INDEPENDENCE DAY...IT APPEARS MOST LIKELY THAT IT
WILL BE DRY...ALTHOUGH AGAIN CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

ANY ONGOING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OVER IN TIME
FOR FIREWORKS SATURDAY NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPERATURES FALLING
INTO THE 60S ARE EXPECTED WITH EVENTUAL LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT
RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE REGION.

ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR
SUNDAY RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
70S TO LOW 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDING INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. MODELS INDICATING THE RIDGE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY PROVIDING SUNNY SKIES AND SEASONABLY
WARM TEMPERATURES. THE ECMWF IS SHOWING AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPING IN
THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...HEADING
TOWARDS OUR REGION MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THIS SOLUTION DOES NOT
AGREE WITH THE GFS/CMC WHICH BOTH KEEP THE STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE. SO
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION DRY CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT.

THE RIDGE THEN STARTS TO BREAK DOWN SOMEWHAT WITH UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS LOWERING SLIGHTLY FOR TUESDAY. WILL MENTION ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME DUE TO LACK OF ANY PROMINENT FORCING
MECHANISM. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL START TO RISE AS WELL...WITH
DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE 60S. COMBINED WITH TEMPS IN THE 80S IT
WILL START TO FEEL MUGGY AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF LOW HUMIDITY FOR
EARLY JULY.

THERE APPEARS TO BE A SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT POSSIBLY MOVE THROUGH...ALTHOUGH THIS
IS NOT CONSISTENT AMONG THE GUIDANCE. THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL BE AN IMPORTANT FACTOR IN DETERMINING THE TIMING/STRENGTH
OF THE NEXT POTENTIAL CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
ARRIVING. WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY...AS THIS IS WHEN IT
LOOKS LIKE THE RIDGE WILL COMPLETELY BREAK DOWN...ALLOWING FOR A
BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
BE NEAR NORMAL FROM MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL PROVIDE CLEARING
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT. DESPITE A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS
IN PLACE...SOME RADIATIONAL FOG FORMATION WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOME
SPOTS. CONFIDENCE FOR FOG IS LOW...SO WILL ONLY MENTION MVFR VSBYS
FOR NOW AT KGFL/KPSF FROM 08Z-11Z...WITH PATCHY FOG NEAR KALB DUE
TO POSSIBLE FOG FORMING ALONG THE MOHAWK RIVER.

OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH ONLY A FEW FAIR
WEATHER CU AROUND FOR FRIDAY.

WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AROUND 7 KTS OR LESS THROUGH FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY...

EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WILL
BE THE USUAL NEARLY FULL RECOVERY EACH OF THE NEXT SEVERAL NIGHTS
WITH LIGHT OR CALM WINDS...YIELDING TO THE FORMATION OF DEW. RH
VALUES WILL DROP EACH AFTERNOON INTO THE 30S IN THE VALLEYS/40S
HIGHER TERRAIN. SUNSHINE WILL PREVAIL ALTHOUGH WILL BE MIXED
WITH A GOOD DEAL OF AFTERNOON CLOUDINESS ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF ALBANY.

THE WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT MAINLY FROM A NORTH TO NORTHWEST
DIRECTION UNDER 10 MPH DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING PRIMARILY SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. BASIN-AVERAGED RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON
SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS. RIVER
LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IRL
NEAR TERM...IRL/JPV
SHORT TERM...IRL
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...11/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/IRL
HYDROLOGY...IRL




000
FXUS61 KALY 030510
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
110 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY TO THE REGION. A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE COULD BRING AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ON
SATURDAY FOR AREAS MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.
DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1045 PM EDT...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION CONTINUES TO BUILD EASTWARD TONIGHT. AS THE HIGH CONTINUES
TO SHIFT CLOSER TO OUR REGION...CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT...BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY/MOSTLY CLEAR AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SOME THICKER HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IN PLACE FOR AREAS SOUTH
AND EAST OF ALBANY WILL DISSIPATE LATE TONIGHT.

TONIGHT WILL FEATURE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...ALLOWING
FOR A COOL NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

WINDS WILL TREND TOWARDS CALM OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FAVORED SHELTERED
VALLEYS AND LOCATIONS NEAR BODIES OF WATER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF A POPUP SHOWER/PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ON INDEPENDENCE
DAY/SATURDAY.

THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY RESULTING IN ANOTHER EXCELLENT
WEATHER DAY FEATURING DRY CONDITIONS AND HIGHS GENERALLY RANGING
FROM THE LOW 70S TO NEAR 80...WITH THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS IN THE
UPPER 60S AND A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY REACHING
INTO THE LOW 80S. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND 5 MPH.

THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST OF THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY...AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK
PIECE OF ENERGY IMPACT THE REGION FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. ANY
FORCING WITH THIS UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE LOOKS MARGINAL AT BEST
AND HAVE ONLY GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR A STRAY
SHOWER/PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. THIS UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER...WITH MOST AREAS PARTLY CLOUDY BUT STILL SEEING A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. WHILE THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME
WET WEATHER ON INDEPENDENCE DAY...IT APPEARS MOST LIKELY THAT IT
WILL BE DRY...ALTHOUGH AGAIN CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

ANY ONGOING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OVER IN TIME
FOR FIREWORKS SATURDAY NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPERATURES FALLING
INTO THE 60S ARE EXPECTED WITH EVENTUAL LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT
RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE REGION.

ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR
SUNDAY RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
70S TO LOW 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDING INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. MODELS INDICATING THE RIDGE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY PROVIDING SUNNY SKIES AND SEASONABLY
WARM TEMPERATURES. THE ECMWF IS SHOWING AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPING IN
THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...HEADING
TOWARDS OUR REGION MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THIS SOLUTION DOES NOT
AGREE WITH THE GFS/CMC WHICH BOTH KEEP THE STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE. SO
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION DRY CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT.

THE RIDGE THEN STARTS TO BREAK DOWN SOMEWHAT WITH UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS LOWERING SLIGHTLY FOR TUESDAY. WILL MENTION ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME DUE TO LACK OF ANY PROMINENT FORCING
MECHANISM. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL START TO RISE AS WELL...WITH
DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE 60S. COMBINED WITH TEMPS IN THE 80S IT
WILL START TO FEEL MUGGY AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF LOW HUMIDITY FOR
EARLY JULY.

THERE APPEARS TO BE A SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT POSSIBLY MOVE THROUGH...ALTHOUGH THIS
IS NOT CONSISTENT AMONG THE GUIDANCE. THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL BE AN IMPORTANT FACTOR IN DETERMINING THE TIMING/STRENGTH
OF THE NEXT POTENTIAL CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
ARRIVING. WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY...AS THIS IS WHEN IT
LOOKS LIKE THE RIDGE WILL COMPLETELY BREAK DOWN...ALLOWING FOR A
BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
BE NEAR NORMAL FROM MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL PROVIDE CLEARING
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT. DESPITE A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS
IN PLACE...SOME RADIATIONAL FOG FORMATION WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOME
SPOTS. CONFIDENCE FOR FOG IS LOW...SO WILL ONLY MENTION MVFR VSBYS
FOR NOW AT KGFL/KPSF FROM 08Z-11Z...WITH PATCHY FOG NEAR KALB DUE
TO POSSIBLE FOG FORMING ALONG THE MOHAWK RIVER.

OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH ONLY A FEW FAIR
WEATHER CU AROUND FOR FRIDAY.

WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AROUND 7 KTS OR LESS THROUGH FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY...

EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WILL
BE THE USUAL NEARLY FULL RECOVERY EACH OF THE NEXT SEVERAL NIGHTS
WITH LIGHT OR CALM WINDS...YIELDING TO THE FORMATION OF DEW. RH
VALUES WILL DROP EACH AFTERNOON INTO THE 30S IN THE VALLEYS/40S
HIGHER TERRAIN. SUNSHINE WILL PREVAIL ALTHOUGH WILL BE MIXED
WITH A GOOD DEAL OF AFTERNOON CLOUDINESS ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF ALBANY.

THE WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT MAINLY FROM A NORTH TO NORTHWEST
DIRECTION UNDER 10 MPH DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING PRIMARILY SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. BASIN-AVERAGED RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON
SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS. RIVER
LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IRL
NEAR TERM...IRL/JPV
SHORT TERM...IRL
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...11/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/IRL
HYDROLOGY...IRL




000
FXUS61 KOKX 030425
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1225 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST ACROSS
THE AREA ON FRIDAY. A SECOND WEAK LOW WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH ON
INDEPENDENCE DAY. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AREA OF RAIN MOVING EAST. PORTIONS OF LONG ISLAND THAT RECEIVED
RAIN COULD SEE FOG DEVELOP. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS MAY
JUST BE ENOUGH FOR PATCHY FOG TO BE OBSERVED.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 50S IN THE
INTERIOR...TO THE LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE. THIS IS ACTUALLY SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
SHORT WAVE RIDGING ON FRI WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO BUILD EAST THROUGH FRI NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT PIECE OF
SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE LATTER OF
WHICH WILL SEND A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES BY DAYBREAK SAT.

FRI INTO FRI NIGHT WILL BE DRY WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S...AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. THIS IS
AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM
THE SW FRI NIGHT.

THERE IS MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON FRI.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECAST FOR THE 4TH OF JULY IS TRICKY WITH MODELS IN DISAGREEMENT
REGARDING OUR CHANCES OF RAINFALL. FOR THE 12Z SUITE...NAM IS DRY
DURING THE DAY AND NIGHT...WITH GFS/ECMWF/CMC SHOWING SOME QPF
OUTPUT. MOST OF THE MODELS WOULD IMPLY THAT THE MORNING HOURS ARE
MORE LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY AND ANY RAINFALL WOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE SOUTH. STILL...WILL BE KEEPING
AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES FOR THE
MORNING. FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES
AND COULD TAP INTO ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM FOR MAINLY THE NW ZONES. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
SHOWER FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES DUE TO THE PROXIMITY TO THE OFFSHORE
LOW. IN ANY CASE...THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A WASHOUT...BUT THE
CHANCES OF A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY DOESN`T LOOK TOO HIGH AT THIS POINT.
WENT SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN A MAV/NAM MOS BLEND FOR HIGH TEMPS.

SUNDAY ON THE OTHER HAND LOOKS LIKE IT WILL FEATURE A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE...BUT THERE
COULD BE SOME CLOUD BUILDUP IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE EASTERN ZONES
AS THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS CYCLONIC. THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN AT LEAST
LOOKS TOO DRY FOR A MENTION OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 80S.

REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD PROBABLY REMAINS DRY FOR THE MOST PART
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. ECMWF REMAINS A QUICK OUTLIER WITH
BRINGING IN RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH STARTING LATE IN THE DAY
MONDAY. WILL GO WITH DRY WEATHER FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT LEAVE IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE GRIDS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHEN THE OTHER GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SOME
SHOWERS COULD OCCUR. HIGHS IN THE 80S THROUGH THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH
WITH THE CLOUD COVER...THURSDAY IS FORECAST TO BE ONLY AROUND 80.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH.
THE HIGH SHIFTS TO OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY UNTIL AROUND 07Z
ACROSS SUFFOLK COUNTY AND POSSIBLY INTO SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT
WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

THE WIND WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT WITH A LIGHT
NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPING EARLY IN THE MORNING.

SEA BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...17Z THROUGH 21Z. MODERATE FORECAST CONFIDENCE.


.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW.
.SATURDAY...VFR...A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH FRI NIGHT AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES
SOUTH OF THE WATERS TONIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO NORTH ON
FRI.

WINDS AND SEAS LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE...RESULTING
IN LIGHT WINDS. A SWELL COULD POTENTIALLY BRING OCEAN SEAS CLOSE
TO 5 FT DURING SATURDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS LOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A RECENT FULL MOON...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 3/4 TO 1 1/2
FT ARE NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED
AT THE PEAK OF THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDES THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MINOR
BENCHMARKS COULD BRIEFLY BE TOUCHED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF
NASSAU COUNTY THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/DW
NEAR TERM...DS/DW/PW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JC/DW
HYDROLOGY...JC/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KOKX 030425
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1225 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST ACROSS
THE AREA ON FRIDAY. A SECOND WEAK LOW WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH ON
INDEPENDENCE DAY. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AREA OF RAIN MOVING EAST. PORTIONS OF LONG ISLAND THAT RECEIVED
RAIN COULD SEE FOG DEVELOP. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS MAY
JUST BE ENOUGH FOR PATCHY FOG TO BE OBSERVED.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 50S IN THE
INTERIOR...TO THE LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE. THIS IS ACTUALLY SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
SHORT WAVE RIDGING ON FRI WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO BUILD EAST THROUGH FRI NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT PIECE OF
SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE LATTER OF
WHICH WILL SEND A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES BY DAYBREAK SAT.

FRI INTO FRI NIGHT WILL BE DRY WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S...AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. THIS IS
AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM
THE SW FRI NIGHT.

THERE IS MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON FRI.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECAST FOR THE 4TH OF JULY IS TRICKY WITH MODELS IN DISAGREEMENT
REGARDING OUR CHANCES OF RAINFALL. FOR THE 12Z SUITE...NAM IS DRY
DURING THE DAY AND NIGHT...WITH GFS/ECMWF/CMC SHOWING SOME QPF
OUTPUT. MOST OF THE MODELS WOULD IMPLY THAT THE MORNING HOURS ARE
MORE LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY AND ANY RAINFALL WOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE SOUTH. STILL...WILL BE KEEPING
AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES FOR THE
MORNING. FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES
AND COULD TAP INTO ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM FOR MAINLY THE NW ZONES. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
SHOWER FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES DUE TO THE PROXIMITY TO THE OFFSHORE
LOW. IN ANY CASE...THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A WASHOUT...BUT THE
CHANCES OF A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY DOESN`T LOOK TOO HIGH AT THIS POINT.
WENT SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN A MAV/NAM MOS BLEND FOR HIGH TEMPS.

SUNDAY ON THE OTHER HAND LOOKS LIKE IT WILL FEATURE A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE...BUT THERE
COULD BE SOME CLOUD BUILDUP IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE EASTERN ZONES
AS THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS CYCLONIC. THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN AT LEAST
LOOKS TOO DRY FOR A MENTION OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 80S.

REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD PROBABLY REMAINS DRY FOR THE MOST PART
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. ECMWF REMAINS A QUICK OUTLIER WITH
BRINGING IN RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH STARTING LATE IN THE DAY
MONDAY. WILL GO WITH DRY WEATHER FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT LEAVE IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE GRIDS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHEN THE OTHER GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SOME
SHOWERS COULD OCCUR. HIGHS IN THE 80S THROUGH THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH
WITH THE CLOUD COVER...THURSDAY IS FORECAST TO BE ONLY AROUND 80.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH.
THE HIGH SHIFTS TO OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY UNTIL AROUND 07Z
ACROSS SUFFOLK COUNTY AND POSSIBLY INTO SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT
WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

THE WIND WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT WITH A LIGHT
NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPING EARLY IN THE MORNING.

SEA BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...17Z THROUGH 21Z. MODERATE FORECAST CONFIDENCE.


.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW.
.SATURDAY...VFR...A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH FRI NIGHT AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES
SOUTH OF THE WATERS TONIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO NORTH ON
FRI.

WINDS AND SEAS LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE...RESULTING
IN LIGHT WINDS. A SWELL COULD POTENTIALLY BRING OCEAN SEAS CLOSE
TO 5 FT DURING SATURDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS LOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A RECENT FULL MOON...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 3/4 TO 1 1/2
FT ARE NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED
AT THE PEAK OF THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDES THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MINOR
BENCHMARKS COULD BRIEFLY BE TOUCHED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF
NASSAU COUNTY THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/DW
NEAR TERM...DS/DW/PW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JC/DW
HYDROLOGY...JC/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KOKX 030425
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1225 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST ACROSS
THE AREA ON FRIDAY. A SECOND WEAK LOW WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH ON
INDEPENDENCE DAY. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AREA OF RAIN MOVING EAST. PORTIONS OF LONG ISLAND THAT RECEIVED
RAIN COULD SEE FOG DEVELOP. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS MAY
JUST BE ENOUGH FOR PATCHY FOG TO BE OBSERVED.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 50S IN THE
INTERIOR...TO THE LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE. THIS IS ACTUALLY SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
SHORT WAVE RIDGING ON FRI WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO BUILD EAST THROUGH FRI NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT PIECE OF
SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE LATTER OF
WHICH WILL SEND A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES BY DAYBREAK SAT.

FRI INTO FRI NIGHT WILL BE DRY WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S...AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. THIS IS
AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM
THE SW FRI NIGHT.

THERE IS MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON FRI.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECAST FOR THE 4TH OF JULY IS TRICKY WITH MODELS IN DISAGREEMENT
REGARDING OUR CHANCES OF RAINFALL. FOR THE 12Z SUITE...NAM IS DRY
DURING THE DAY AND NIGHT...WITH GFS/ECMWF/CMC SHOWING SOME QPF
OUTPUT. MOST OF THE MODELS WOULD IMPLY THAT THE MORNING HOURS ARE
MORE LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY AND ANY RAINFALL WOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE SOUTH. STILL...WILL BE KEEPING
AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES FOR THE
MORNING. FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES
AND COULD TAP INTO ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM FOR MAINLY THE NW ZONES. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
SHOWER FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES DUE TO THE PROXIMITY TO THE OFFSHORE
LOW. IN ANY CASE...THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A WASHOUT...BUT THE
CHANCES OF A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY DOESN`T LOOK TOO HIGH AT THIS POINT.
WENT SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN A MAV/NAM MOS BLEND FOR HIGH TEMPS.

SUNDAY ON THE OTHER HAND LOOKS LIKE IT WILL FEATURE A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE...BUT THERE
COULD BE SOME CLOUD BUILDUP IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE EASTERN ZONES
AS THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS CYCLONIC. THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN AT LEAST
LOOKS TOO DRY FOR A MENTION OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 80S.

REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD PROBABLY REMAINS DRY FOR THE MOST PART
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. ECMWF REMAINS A QUICK OUTLIER WITH
BRINGING IN RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH STARTING LATE IN THE DAY
MONDAY. WILL GO WITH DRY WEATHER FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT LEAVE IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE GRIDS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHEN THE OTHER GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SOME
SHOWERS COULD OCCUR. HIGHS IN THE 80S THROUGH THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH
WITH THE CLOUD COVER...THURSDAY IS FORECAST TO BE ONLY AROUND 80.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH.
THE HIGH SHIFTS TO OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY UNTIL AROUND 07Z
ACROSS SUFFOLK COUNTY AND POSSIBLY INTO SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT
WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

THE WIND WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT WITH A LIGHT
NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPING EARLY IN THE MORNING.

SEA BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...17Z THROUGH 21Z. MODERATE FORECAST CONFIDENCE.


.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW.
.SATURDAY...VFR...A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH FRI NIGHT AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES
SOUTH OF THE WATERS TONIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO NORTH ON
FRI.

WINDS AND SEAS LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE...RESULTING
IN LIGHT WINDS. A SWELL COULD POTENTIALLY BRING OCEAN SEAS CLOSE
TO 5 FT DURING SATURDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS LOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A RECENT FULL MOON...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 3/4 TO 1 1/2
FT ARE NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED
AT THE PEAK OF THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDES THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MINOR
BENCHMARKS COULD BRIEFLY BE TOUCHED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF
NASSAU COUNTY THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/DW
NEAR TERM...DS/DW/PW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JC/DW
HYDROLOGY...JC/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KOKX 030425
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1225 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST ACROSS
THE AREA ON FRIDAY. A SECOND WEAK LOW WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH ON
INDEPENDENCE DAY. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AREA OF RAIN MOVING EAST. PORTIONS OF LONG ISLAND THAT RECEIVED
RAIN COULD SEE FOG DEVELOP. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS MAY
JUST BE ENOUGH FOR PATCHY FOG TO BE OBSERVED.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 50S IN THE
INTERIOR...TO THE LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE. THIS IS ACTUALLY SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
SHORT WAVE RIDGING ON FRI WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO BUILD EAST THROUGH FRI NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT PIECE OF
SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE LATTER OF
WHICH WILL SEND A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES BY DAYBREAK SAT.

FRI INTO FRI NIGHT WILL BE DRY WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S...AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. THIS IS
AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM
THE SW FRI NIGHT.

THERE IS MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON FRI.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECAST FOR THE 4TH OF JULY IS TRICKY WITH MODELS IN DISAGREEMENT
REGARDING OUR CHANCES OF RAINFALL. FOR THE 12Z SUITE...NAM IS DRY
DURING THE DAY AND NIGHT...WITH GFS/ECMWF/CMC SHOWING SOME QPF
OUTPUT. MOST OF THE MODELS WOULD IMPLY THAT THE MORNING HOURS ARE
MORE LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY AND ANY RAINFALL WOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE SOUTH. STILL...WILL BE KEEPING
AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES FOR THE
MORNING. FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES
AND COULD TAP INTO ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM FOR MAINLY THE NW ZONES. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
SHOWER FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES DUE TO THE PROXIMITY TO THE OFFSHORE
LOW. IN ANY CASE...THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A WASHOUT...BUT THE
CHANCES OF A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY DOESN`T LOOK TOO HIGH AT THIS POINT.
WENT SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN A MAV/NAM MOS BLEND FOR HIGH TEMPS.

SUNDAY ON THE OTHER HAND LOOKS LIKE IT WILL FEATURE A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE...BUT THERE
COULD BE SOME CLOUD BUILDUP IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE EASTERN ZONES
AS THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS CYCLONIC. THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN AT LEAST
LOOKS TOO DRY FOR A MENTION OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 80S.

REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD PROBABLY REMAINS DRY FOR THE MOST PART
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. ECMWF REMAINS A QUICK OUTLIER WITH
BRINGING IN RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH STARTING LATE IN THE DAY
MONDAY. WILL GO WITH DRY WEATHER FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT LEAVE IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE GRIDS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHEN THE OTHER GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SOME
SHOWERS COULD OCCUR. HIGHS IN THE 80S THROUGH THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH
WITH THE CLOUD COVER...THURSDAY IS FORECAST TO BE ONLY AROUND 80.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH.
THE HIGH SHIFTS TO OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY UNTIL AROUND 07Z
ACROSS SUFFOLK COUNTY AND POSSIBLY INTO SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT
WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

THE WIND WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT WITH A LIGHT
NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPING EARLY IN THE MORNING.

SEA BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...17Z THROUGH 21Z. MODERATE FORECAST CONFIDENCE.


.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW.
.SATURDAY...VFR...A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH FRI NIGHT AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES
SOUTH OF THE WATERS TONIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO NORTH ON
FRI.

WINDS AND SEAS LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE...RESULTING
IN LIGHT WINDS. A SWELL COULD POTENTIALLY BRING OCEAN SEAS CLOSE
TO 5 FT DURING SATURDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS LOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A RECENT FULL MOON...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 3/4 TO 1 1/2
FT ARE NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED
AT THE PEAK OF THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDES THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MINOR
BENCHMARKS COULD BRIEFLY BE TOUCHED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF
NASSAU COUNTY THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/DW
NEAR TERM...DS/DW/PW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JC/DW
HYDROLOGY...JC/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KOKX 030425
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1225 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST ACROSS
THE AREA ON FRIDAY. A SECOND WEAK LOW WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH ON
INDEPENDENCE DAY. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AREA OF RAIN MOVING EAST. PORTIONS OF LONG ISLAND THAT RECEIVED
RAIN COULD SEE FOG DEVELOP. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS MAY
JUST BE ENOUGH FOR PATCHY FOG TO BE OBSERVED.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 50S IN THE
INTERIOR...TO THE LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE. THIS IS ACTUALLY SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
SHORT WAVE RIDGING ON FRI WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO BUILD EAST THROUGH FRI NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT PIECE OF
SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE LATTER OF
WHICH WILL SEND A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES BY DAYBREAK SAT.

FRI INTO FRI NIGHT WILL BE DRY WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S...AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. THIS IS
AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM
THE SW FRI NIGHT.

THERE IS MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON FRI.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECAST FOR THE 4TH OF JULY IS TRICKY WITH MODELS IN DISAGREEMENT
REGARDING OUR CHANCES OF RAINFALL. FOR THE 12Z SUITE...NAM IS DRY
DURING THE DAY AND NIGHT...WITH GFS/ECMWF/CMC SHOWING SOME QPF
OUTPUT. MOST OF THE MODELS WOULD IMPLY THAT THE MORNING HOURS ARE
MORE LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY AND ANY RAINFALL WOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE SOUTH. STILL...WILL BE KEEPING
AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES FOR THE
MORNING. FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES
AND COULD TAP INTO ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM FOR MAINLY THE NW ZONES. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
SHOWER FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES DUE TO THE PROXIMITY TO THE OFFSHORE
LOW. IN ANY CASE...THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A WASHOUT...BUT THE
CHANCES OF A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY DOESN`T LOOK TOO HIGH AT THIS POINT.
WENT SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN A MAV/NAM MOS BLEND FOR HIGH TEMPS.

SUNDAY ON THE OTHER HAND LOOKS LIKE IT WILL FEATURE A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE...BUT THERE
COULD BE SOME CLOUD BUILDUP IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE EASTERN ZONES
AS THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS CYCLONIC. THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN AT LEAST
LOOKS TOO DRY FOR A MENTION OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 80S.

REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD PROBABLY REMAINS DRY FOR THE MOST PART
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. ECMWF REMAINS A QUICK OUTLIER WITH
BRINGING IN RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH STARTING LATE IN THE DAY
MONDAY. WILL GO WITH DRY WEATHER FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT LEAVE IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE GRIDS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHEN THE OTHER GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SOME
SHOWERS COULD OCCUR. HIGHS IN THE 80S THROUGH THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH
WITH THE CLOUD COVER...THURSDAY IS FORECAST TO BE ONLY AROUND 80.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH.
THE HIGH SHIFTS TO OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY UNTIL AROUND 07Z
ACROSS SUFFOLK COUNTY AND POSSIBLY INTO SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT
WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

THE WIND WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT WITH A LIGHT
NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPING EARLY IN THE MORNING.

SEA BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...17Z THROUGH 21Z. MODERATE FORECAST CONFIDENCE.


.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW.
.SATURDAY...VFR...A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH FRI NIGHT AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES
SOUTH OF THE WATERS TONIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO NORTH ON
FRI.

WINDS AND SEAS LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE...RESULTING
IN LIGHT WINDS. A SWELL COULD POTENTIALLY BRING OCEAN SEAS CLOSE
TO 5 FT DURING SATURDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS LOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A RECENT FULL MOON...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 3/4 TO 1 1/2
FT ARE NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED
AT THE PEAK OF THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDES THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MINOR
BENCHMARKS COULD BRIEFLY BE TOUCHED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF
NASSAU COUNTY THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/DW
NEAR TERM...DS/DW/PW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JC/DW
HYDROLOGY...JC/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KOKX 030425
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1225 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST ACROSS
THE AREA ON FRIDAY. A SECOND WEAK LOW WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH ON
INDEPENDENCE DAY. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AREA OF RAIN MOVING EAST. PORTIONS OF LONG ISLAND THAT RECEIVED
RAIN COULD SEE FOG DEVELOP. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS MAY
JUST BE ENOUGH FOR PATCHY FOG TO BE OBSERVED.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 50S IN THE
INTERIOR...TO THE LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE. THIS IS ACTUALLY SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
SHORT WAVE RIDGING ON FRI WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO BUILD EAST THROUGH FRI NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT PIECE OF
SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE LATTER OF
WHICH WILL SEND A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES BY DAYBREAK SAT.

FRI INTO FRI NIGHT WILL BE DRY WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S...AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. THIS IS
AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM
THE SW FRI NIGHT.

THERE IS MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON FRI.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECAST FOR THE 4TH OF JULY IS TRICKY WITH MODELS IN DISAGREEMENT
REGARDING OUR CHANCES OF RAINFALL. FOR THE 12Z SUITE...NAM IS DRY
DURING THE DAY AND NIGHT...WITH GFS/ECMWF/CMC SHOWING SOME QPF
OUTPUT. MOST OF THE MODELS WOULD IMPLY THAT THE MORNING HOURS ARE
MORE LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY AND ANY RAINFALL WOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE SOUTH. STILL...WILL BE KEEPING
AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES FOR THE
MORNING. FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES
AND COULD TAP INTO ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM FOR MAINLY THE NW ZONES. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
SHOWER FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES DUE TO THE PROXIMITY TO THE OFFSHORE
LOW. IN ANY CASE...THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A WASHOUT...BUT THE
CHANCES OF A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY DOESN`T LOOK TOO HIGH AT THIS POINT.
WENT SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN A MAV/NAM MOS BLEND FOR HIGH TEMPS.

SUNDAY ON THE OTHER HAND LOOKS LIKE IT WILL FEATURE A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE...BUT THERE
COULD BE SOME CLOUD BUILDUP IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE EASTERN ZONES
AS THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS CYCLONIC. THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN AT LEAST
LOOKS TOO DRY FOR A MENTION OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 80S.

REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD PROBABLY REMAINS DRY FOR THE MOST PART
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. ECMWF REMAINS A QUICK OUTLIER WITH
BRINGING IN RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH STARTING LATE IN THE DAY
MONDAY. WILL GO WITH DRY WEATHER FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT LEAVE IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE GRIDS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHEN THE OTHER GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SOME
SHOWERS COULD OCCUR. HIGHS IN THE 80S THROUGH THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH
WITH THE CLOUD COVER...THURSDAY IS FORECAST TO BE ONLY AROUND 80.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH.
THE HIGH SHIFTS TO OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY UNTIL AROUND 07Z
ACROSS SUFFOLK COUNTY AND POSSIBLY INTO SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT
WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

THE WIND WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT WITH A LIGHT
NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPING EARLY IN THE MORNING.

SEA BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...17Z THROUGH 21Z. MODERATE FORECAST CONFIDENCE.


.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW.
.SATURDAY...VFR...A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH FRI NIGHT AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES
SOUTH OF THE WATERS TONIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO NORTH ON
FRI.

WINDS AND SEAS LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE...RESULTING
IN LIGHT WINDS. A SWELL COULD POTENTIALLY BRING OCEAN SEAS CLOSE
TO 5 FT DURING SATURDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS LOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A RECENT FULL MOON...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 3/4 TO 1 1/2
FT ARE NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED
AT THE PEAK OF THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDES THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MINOR
BENCHMARKS COULD BRIEFLY BE TOUCHED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF
NASSAU COUNTY THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/DW
NEAR TERM...DS/DW/PW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JC/DW
HYDROLOGY...JC/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KOKX 030249
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1049 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST ACROSS
THE AREA ON FRIDAY. A SECOND WEAK LOW WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH ON
INDEPENDENCE DAY. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THIS EVENING. SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM
THE SOUTHWEST AROUND MEAN UPPER TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED A FEW SHOWERS
ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES OF NYC/NJ METRO AND SOUTHWESTERN LONG
ISLAND. 00Z OKX SOUNDING DEPICTED SOME LOW LEVEL DRY AIR THAT HAS
LIKELY PREVENTED MUCH MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION SO FAR OUT THESE
SHOWERS. NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH EXPECTED
OUT OF THIS ACTIVITY. THE SHOWERS SLIDE TO THE EAST IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...EXITING THE AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT.

OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY CLEAR FROM
WEST TO EAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS THE SHORTWAVE
SHIFTS EAST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN THE
INTERIOR...TO THE LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE. THIS IS ACTUALLY SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SHORT WAVE RIDGING ON FRI WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO BUILD EAST THROUGH FRI NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT PIECE OF
SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE LATTER OF
WHICH WILL SEND A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES BY DAYBREAK SAT.

FRI INTO FRI NIGHT WILL BE DRY WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S...AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. THIS IS
AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM
THE SW FRI NIGHT.

THERE IS MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON FRI.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECAST FOR THE 4TH OF JULY IS TRICKY WITH MODELS IN DISAGREEMENT
REGARDING OUR CHANCES OF RAINFALL. FOR THE 12Z SUITE...NAM IS DRY
DURING THE DAY AND NIGHT...WITH GFS/ECMWF/CMC SHOWING SOME QPF
OUTPUT. MOST OF THE MODELS WOULD IMPLY THAT THE MORNING HOURS ARE
MORE LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY AND ANY RAINFALL WOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE SOUTH. STILL...WILL BE KEEPING
AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES FOR THE
MORNING. FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES
AND COULD TAP INTO ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM FOR MAINLY THE NW ZONES. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
SHOWER FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES DUE TO THE PROXIMITY TO THE OFFSHORE
LOW. IN ANY CASE...THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A WASHOUT...BUT THE
CHANCES OF A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY DOESN`T LOOK TOO HIGH AT THIS POINT.
WENT SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN A MAV/NAM MOS BLEND FOR HIGH TEMPS.

SUNDAY ON THE OTHER HAND LOOKS LIKE IT WILL FEATURE A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE...BUT THERE
COULD BE SOME CLOUD BUILDUP IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE EASTERN ZONES
AS THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS CYCLONIC. THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN AT LEAST
LOOKS TOO DRY FOR A MENTION OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 80S.

REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD PROBABLY REMAINS DRY FOR THE MOST PART
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. ECMWF REMAINS A QUICK OUTLIER WITH
BRINGING IN RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH STARTING LATE IN THE DAY
MONDAY. WILL GO WITH DRY WEATHER FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT LEAVE IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE GRIDS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHEN THE OTHER GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SOME
SHOWERS COULD OCCUR. HIGHS IN THE 80S THROUGH THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH
WITH THE CLOUD COVER...THURSDAY IS FORECAST TO BE ONLY AROUND 80.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH.
THE HIGH SHIFTS TO OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY UNTIL AROUND 07Z
ACROSS SUFFOLK COUNTY AND POSSIBLY INTO SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT
WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

THE WIND WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT WITH A LIGHT
NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPING EARLY IN THE MORNING.

SEA BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...17Z THROUGH 21Z. MODERATE FORECAST CONFIDENCE.


.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW.
.SATURDAY...VFR...A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH FRI NIGHT AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES
SOUTH OF THE WATERS TONIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO NORTH ON
FRI.

WINDS AND SEAS LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE...RESULTING
IN LIGHT WINDS. A SWELL COULD POTENTIALLY BRING OCEAN SEAS CLOSE
TO 5 FT DURING SATURDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS LOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A RECENT FULL MOON...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 3/4 TO 1 1/2
FT ARE NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED
AT THE PEAK OF THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDES THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MINOR
BENCHMARKS COULD BRIEFLY BE TOUCHED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF
NASSAU COUNTY THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/DW
NEAR TERM...DS/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JC/DW
HYDROLOGY...JC/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KOKX 030249
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1049 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST ACROSS
THE AREA ON FRIDAY. A SECOND WEAK LOW WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH ON
INDEPENDENCE DAY. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THIS EVENING. SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM
THE SOUTHWEST AROUND MEAN UPPER TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED A FEW SHOWERS
ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES OF NYC/NJ METRO AND SOUTHWESTERN LONG
ISLAND. 00Z OKX SOUNDING DEPICTED SOME LOW LEVEL DRY AIR THAT HAS
LIKELY PREVENTED MUCH MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION SO FAR OUT THESE
SHOWERS. NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH EXPECTED
OUT OF THIS ACTIVITY. THE SHOWERS SLIDE TO THE EAST IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...EXITING THE AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT.

OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY CLEAR FROM
WEST TO EAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS THE SHORTWAVE
SHIFTS EAST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN THE
INTERIOR...TO THE LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE. THIS IS ACTUALLY SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SHORT WAVE RIDGING ON FRI WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO BUILD EAST THROUGH FRI NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT PIECE OF
SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE LATTER OF
WHICH WILL SEND A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES BY DAYBREAK SAT.

FRI INTO FRI NIGHT WILL BE DRY WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S...AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. THIS IS
AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM
THE SW FRI NIGHT.

THERE IS MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON FRI.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECAST FOR THE 4TH OF JULY IS TRICKY WITH MODELS IN DISAGREEMENT
REGARDING OUR CHANCES OF RAINFALL. FOR THE 12Z SUITE...NAM IS DRY
DURING THE DAY AND NIGHT...WITH GFS/ECMWF/CMC SHOWING SOME QPF
OUTPUT. MOST OF THE MODELS WOULD IMPLY THAT THE MORNING HOURS ARE
MORE LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY AND ANY RAINFALL WOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE SOUTH. STILL...WILL BE KEEPING
AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES FOR THE
MORNING. FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES
AND COULD TAP INTO ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM FOR MAINLY THE NW ZONES. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
SHOWER FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES DUE TO THE PROXIMITY TO THE OFFSHORE
LOW. IN ANY CASE...THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A WASHOUT...BUT THE
CHANCES OF A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY DOESN`T LOOK TOO HIGH AT THIS POINT.
WENT SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN A MAV/NAM MOS BLEND FOR HIGH TEMPS.

SUNDAY ON THE OTHER HAND LOOKS LIKE IT WILL FEATURE A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE...BUT THERE
COULD BE SOME CLOUD BUILDUP IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE EASTERN ZONES
AS THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS CYCLONIC. THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN AT LEAST
LOOKS TOO DRY FOR A MENTION OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 80S.

REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD PROBABLY REMAINS DRY FOR THE MOST PART
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. ECMWF REMAINS A QUICK OUTLIER WITH
BRINGING IN RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH STARTING LATE IN THE DAY
MONDAY. WILL GO WITH DRY WEATHER FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT LEAVE IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE GRIDS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHEN THE OTHER GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SOME
SHOWERS COULD OCCUR. HIGHS IN THE 80S THROUGH THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH
WITH THE CLOUD COVER...THURSDAY IS FORECAST TO BE ONLY AROUND 80.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH.
THE HIGH SHIFTS TO OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY UNTIL AROUND 07Z
ACROSS SUFFOLK COUNTY AND POSSIBLY INTO SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT
WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

THE WIND WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT WITH A LIGHT
NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPING EARLY IN THE MORNING.

SEA BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...17Z THROUGH 21Z. MODERATE FORECAST CONFIDENCE.


.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW.
.SATURDAY...VFR...A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH FRI NIGHT AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES
SOUTH OF THE WATERS TONIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO NORTH ON
FRI.

WINDS AND SEAS LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE...RESULTING
IN LIGHT WINDS. A SWELL COULD POTENTIALLY BRING OCEAN SEAS CLOSE
TO 5 FT DURING SATURDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS LOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A RECENT FULL MOON...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 3/4 TO 1 1/2
FT ARE NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED
AT THE PEAK OF THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDES THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MINOR
BENCHMARKS COULD BRIEFLY BE TOUCHED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF
NASSAU COUNTY THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/DW
NEAR TERM...DS/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JC/DW
HYDROLOGY...JC/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KOKX 030249
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1049 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST ACROSS
THE AREA ON FRIDAY. A SECOND WEAK LOW WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH ON
INDEPENDENCE DAY. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THIS EVENING. SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM
THE SOUTHWEST AROUND MEAN UPPER TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED A FEW SHOWERS
ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES OF NYC/NJ METRO AND SOUTHWESTERN LONG
ISLAND. 00Z OKX SOUNDING DEPICTED SOME LOW LEVEL DRY AIR THAT HAS
LIKELY PREVENTED MUCH MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION SO FAR OUT THESE
SHOWERS. NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH EXPECTED
OUT OF THIS ACTIVITY. THE SHOWERS SLIDE TO THE EAST IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...EXITING THE AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT.

OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY CLEAR FROM
WEST TO EAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS THE SHORTWAVE
SHIFTS EAST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN THE
INTERIOR...TO THE LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE. THIS IS ACTUALLY SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SHORT WAVE RIDGING ON FRI WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO BUILD EAST THROUGH FRI NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT PIECE OF
SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE LATTER OF
WHICH WILL SEND A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES BY DAYBREAK SAT.

FRI INTO FRI NIGHT WILL BE DRY WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S...AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. THIS IS
AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM
THE SW FRI NIGHT.

THERE IS MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON FRI.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECAST FOR THE 4TH OF JULY IS TRICKY WITH MODELS IN DISAGREEMENT
REGARDING OUR CHANCES OF RAINFALL. FOR THE 12Z SUITE...NAM IS DRY
DURING THE DAY AND NIGHT...WITH GFS/ECMWF/CMC SHOWING SOME QPF
OUTPUT. MOST OF THE MODELS WOULD IMPLY THAT THE MORNING HOURS ARE
MORE LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY AND ANY RAINFALL WOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE SOUTH. STILL...WILL BE KEEPING
AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES FOR THE
MORNING. FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES
AND COULD TAP INTO ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM FOR MAINLY THE NW ZONES. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
SHOWER FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES DUE TO THE PROXIMITY TO THE OFFSHORE
LOW. IN ANY CASE...THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A WASHOUT...BUT THE
CHANCES OF A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY DOESN`T LOOK TOO HIGH AT THIS POINT.
WENT SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN A MAV/NAM MOS BLEND FOR HIGH TEMPS.

SUNDAY ON THE OTHER HAND LOOKS LIKE IT WILL FEATURE A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE...BUT THERE
COULD BE SOME CLOUD BUILDUP IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE EASTERN ZONES
AS THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS CYCLONIC. THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN AT LEAST
LOOKS TOO DRY FOR A MENTION OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 80S.

REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD PROBABLY REMAINS DRY FOR THE MOST PART
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. ECMWF REMAINS A QUICK OUTLIER WITH
BRINGING IN RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH STARTING LATE IN THE DAY
MONDAY. WILL GO WITH DRY WEATHER FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT LEAVE IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE GRIDS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHEN THE OTHER GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SOME
SHOWERS COULD OCCUR. HIGHS IN THE 80S THROUGH THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH
WITH THE CLOUD COVER...THURSDAY IS FORECAST TO BE ONLY AROUND 80.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH.
THE HIGH SHIFTS TO OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY UNTIL AROUND 07Z
ACROSS SUFFOLK COUNTY AND POSSIBLY INTO SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT
WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

THE WIND WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT WITH A LIGHT
NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPING EARLY IN THE MORNING.

SEA BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...17Z THROUGH 21Z. MODERATE FORECAST CONFIDENCE.


.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW.
.SATURDAY...VFR...A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH FRI NIGHT AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES
SOUTH OF THE WATERS TONIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO NORTH ON
FRI.

WINDS AND SEAS LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE...RESULTING
IN LIGHT WINDS. A SWELL COULD POTENTIALLY BRING OCEAN SEAS CLOSE
TO 5 FT DURING SATURDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS LOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A RECENT FULL MOON...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 3/4 TO 1 1/2
FT ARE NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED
AT THE PEAK OF THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDES THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MINOR
BENCHMARKS COULD BRIEFLY BE TOUCHED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF
NASSAU COUNTY THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/DW
NEAR TERM...DS/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JC/DW
HYDROLOGY...JC/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KOKX 030249
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1049 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST ACROSS
THE AREA ON FRIDAY. A SECOND WEAK LOW WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH ON
INDEPENDENCE DAY. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THIS EVENING. SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM
THE SOUTHWEST AROUND MEAN UPPER TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED A FEW SHOWERS
ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES OF NYC/NJ METRO AND SOUTHWESTERN LONG
ISLAND. 00Z OKX SOUNDING DEPICTED SOME LOW LEVEL DRY AIR THAT HAS
LIKELY PREVENTED MUCH MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION SO FAR OUT THESE
SHOWERS. NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH EXPECTED
OUT OF THIS ACTIVITY. THE SHOWERS SLIDE TO THE EAST IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...EXITING THE AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT.

OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY CLEAR FROM
WEST TO EAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS THE SHORTWAVE
SHIFTS EAST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN THE
INTERIOR...TO THE LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE. THIS IS ACTUALLY SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SHORT WAVE RIDGING ON FRI WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO BUILD EAST THROUGH FRI NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT PIECE OF
SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE LATTER OF
WHICH WILL SEND A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES BY DAYBREAK SAT.

FRI INTO FRI NIGHT WILL BE DRY WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S...AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. THIS IS
AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM
THE SW FRI NIGHT.

THERE IS MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON FRI.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECAST FOR THE 4TH OF JULY IS TRICKY WITH MODELS IN DISAGREEMENT
REGARDING OUR CHANCES OF RAINFALL. FOR THE 12Z SUITE...NAM IS DRY
DURING THE DAY AND NIGHT...WITH GFS/ECMWF/CMC SHOWING SOME QPF
OUTPUT. MOST OF THE MODELS WOULD IMPLY THAT THE MORNING HOURS ARE
MORE LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY AND ANY RAINFALL WOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE SOUTH. STILL...WILL BE KEEPING
AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES FOR THE
MORNING. FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES
AND COULD TAP INTO ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM FOR MAINLY THE NW ZONES. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
SHOWER FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES DUE TO THE PROXIMITY TO THE OFFSHORE
LOW. IN ANY CASE...THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A WASHOUT...BUT THE
CHANCES OF A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY DOESN`T LOOK TOO HIGH AT THIS POINT.
WENT SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN A MAV/NAM MOS BLEND FOR HIGH TEMPS.

SUNDAY ON THE OTHER HAND LOOKS LIKE IT WILL FEATURE A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE...BUT THERE
COULD BE SOME CLOUD BUILDUP IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE EASTERN ZONES
AS THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS CYCLONIC. THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN AT LEAST
LOOKS TOO DRY FOR A MENTION OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 80S.

REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD PROBABLY REMAINS DRY FOR THE MOST PART
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. ECMWF REMAINS A QUICK OUTLIER WITH
BRINGING IN RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH STARTING LATE IN THE DAY
MONDAY. WILL GO WITH DRY WEATHER FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT LEAVE IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE GRIDS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHEN THE OTHER GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SOME
SHOWERS COULD OCCUR. HIGHS IN THE 80S THROUGH THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH
WITH THE CLOUD COVER...THURSDAY IS FORECAST TO BE ONLY AROUND 80.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH.
THE HIGH SHIFTS TO OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY UNTIL AROUND 07Z
ACROSS SUFFOLK COUNTY AND POSSIBLY INTO SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT
WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

THE WIND WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT WITH A LIGHT
NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPING EARLY IN THE MORNING.

SEA BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...17Z THROUGH 21Z. MODERATE FORECAST CONFIDENCE.


.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW.
.SATURDAY...VFR...A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH FRI NIGHT AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES
SOUTH OF THE WATERS TONIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO NORTH ON
FRI.

WINDS AND SEAS LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE...RESULTING
IN LIGHT WINDS. A SWELL COULD POTENTIALLY BRING OCEAN SEAS CLOSE
TO 5 FT DURING SATURDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS LOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A RECENT FULL MOON...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 3/4 TO 1 1/2
FT ARE NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED
AT THE PEAK OF THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDES THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MINOR
BENCHMARKS COULD BRIEFLY BE TOUCHED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF
NASSAU COUNTY THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/DW
NEAR TERM...DS/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JC/DW
HYDROLOGY...JC/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KALY 030245
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1045 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY TO THE REGION. A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE COULD BRING AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ON
SATURDAY FOR AREAS MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.
DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1045 PM EDT...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION CONTINUES TO BUILD EASTWARD TONIGHT. AS THE HIGH CONTINUES
TO SHIFT CLOSER TO OUR REGION...CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT...BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY/MOSTLY CLEAR AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SOME THICKER HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IN PLACE FOR AREAS SOUTH
AND EAST OF ALBANY WILL DISSIPATE LATE TONIGHT.

TONIGHT WILL FEATURE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...ALLOWING
FOR A COOL NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

WINDS WILL TREND TOWARDS CALM OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FAVORED SHELTERED
VALLEYS AND LOCATIONS NEAR BODIES OF WATER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF A POPUP SHOWER/PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ON INDEPENDENCE
DAY/SATURDAY.

THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY RESULTING IN ANOTHER EXCELLENT
WEATHER DAY FEATURING DRY CONDITIONS AND HIGHS GENERALLY RANGING
FROM THE LOW 70S TO NEAR 80...WITH THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS IN THE
UPPER 60S AND A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY REACHING
INTO THE LOW 80S. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND 5 MPH.

THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST OF THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY...AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK
PIECE OF ENERGY IMPACT THE REGION FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. ANY
FORCING WITH THIS UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE LOOKS MARGINAL AT BEST
AND HAVE ONLY GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR A STRAY
SHOWER/PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. THIS UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER...WITH MOST AREAS PARTLY CLOUDY BUT STILL SEEING A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. WHILE THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME
WET WEATHER ON INDEPENDENCE DAY...IT APPEARS MOST LIKELY THAT IT
WILL BE DRY...ALTHOUGH AGAIN CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

ANY ONGOING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OVER IN TIME
FOR FIREWORKS SATURDAY NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPERATURES FALLING
INTO THE 60S ARE EXPECTED WITH EVENTUAL LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT
RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE REGION.

ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR
SUNDAY RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
70S TO LOW 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDING INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. MODELS INDICATING THE RIDGE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY PROVIDING SUNNY SKIES AND SEASONABLY
WARM TEMPERATURES. THE ECMWF IS SHOWING AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPING IN
THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...HEADING
TOWARDS OUR REGION MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THIS SOLUTION DOES NOT
AGREE WITH THE GFS/CMC WHICH BOTH KEEP THE STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE. SO
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION DRY CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT.

THE RIDGE THEN STARTS TO BREAK DOWN SOMEWHAT WITH UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS LOWERING SLIGHTLY FOR TUESDAY. WILL MENTION ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME DUE TO LACK OF ANY PROMINENT FORCING
MECHANISM. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL START TO RISE AS WELL...WITH
DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE 60S. COMBINED WITH TEMPS IN THE 80S IT
WILL START TO FEEL MUGGY AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF LOW HUMIDITY FOR
EARLY JULY.

THERE APPEARS TO BE A SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT POSSIBLY MOVE THROUGH...ALTHOUGH THIS
IS NOT CONSISTENT AMONG THE GUIDANCE. THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL BE AN IMPORTANT FACTOR IN DETERMINING THE TIMING/STRENGTH
OF THE NEXT POTENTIAL CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
ARRIVING. WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY...AS THIS IS WHEN IT
LOOKS LIKE THE RIDGE WILL COMPLETELY BREAK DOWN...ALLOWING FOR A
BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
BE NEAR NORMAL FROM MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL PROVIDE CLEARING
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT. DESPITE A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS
IN PLACE...SOME RADIATIONAL FOG FORMATION WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOME
SPOTS. CONFIDENCE FOR FOG IS LOW...SO WILL ONLY MENTION MVFR VSBYS
FOR NOW AT KGFL/KPSF FROM 08Z-11Z...WITH PATCHY FOG NEAR KALB DUE
TO POSSIBLE FOG FORMING ALONG THE MOHAWK RIVER. SUBSEQUENT TAF
ISSUANCE WILL MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE FOG.

OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH ONLY A FEW FAIR
WEATHER CU AROUND FOR FRIDAY.

WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS THROUGH FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY...

EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WILL
BE THE USUAL NEARLY FULL RECOVERY EACH OF THE NEXT SEVERAL NIGHTS
WITH LIGHT OR CALM WINDS...YIELDING TO THE FORMATION OF DEW. RH
VALUES WILL DROP EACH AFTERNOON INTO THE 30S IN THE VALLEYS/40S
HIGHER TERRAIN. SUNSHINE WILL PREVAIL ALTHOUGH WILL BE MIXED
WITH A GOOD DEAL OF AFTERNOON CLOUDINESS ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF ALBANY.

THE WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT MAINLY FROM A NORTH TO NORTHWEST
DIRECTION UNDER 10 MPH DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING PRIMARILY SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. BASIN-AVERAGED RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON
SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS. RIVER
LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IRL
NEAR TERM...IRL/JPV
SHORT TERM...IRL
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/IRL
HYDROLOGY...IRL



000
FXUS61 KALY 030245
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1045 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY TO THE REGION. A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE COULD BRING AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ON
SATURDAY FOR AREAS MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.
DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1045 PM EDT...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION CONTINUES TO BUILD EASTWARD TONIGHT. AS THE HIGH CONTINUES
TO SHIFT CLOSER TO OUR REGION...CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT...BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY/MOSTLY CLEAR AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SOME THICKER HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IN PLACE FOR AREAS SOUTH
AND EAST OF ALBANY WILL DISSIPATE LATE TONIGHT.

TONIGHT WILL FEATURE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...ALLOWING
FOR A COOL NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

WINDS WILL TREND TOWARDS CALM OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FAVORED SHELTERED
VALLEYS AND LOCATIONS NEAR BODIES OF WATER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF A POPUP SHOWER/PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ON INDEPENDENCE
DAY/SATURDAY.

THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY RESULTING IN ANOTHER EXCELLENT
WEATHER DAY FEATURING DRY CONDITIONS AND HIGHS GENERALLY RANGING
FROM THE LOW 70S TO NEAR 80...WITH THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS IN THE
UPPER 60S AND A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY REACHING
INTO THE LOW 80S. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND 5 MPH.

THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST OF THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY...AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK
PIECE OF ENERGY IMPACT THE REGION FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. ANY
FORCING WITH THIS UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE LOOKS MARGINAL AT BEST
AND HAVE ONLY GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR A STRAY
SHOWER/PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. THIS UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER...WITH MOST AREAS PARTLY CLOUDY BUT STILL SEEING A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. WHILE THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME
WET WEATHER ON INDEPENDENCE DAY...IT APPEARS MOST LIKELY THAT IT
WILL BE DRY...ALTHOUGH AGAIN CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

ANY ONGOING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OVER IN TIME
FOR FIREWORKS SATURDAY NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPERATURES FALLING
INTO THE 60S ARE EXPECTED WITH EVENTUAL LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT
RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE REGION.

ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR
SUNDAY RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
70S TO LOW 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDING INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. MODELS INDICATING THE RIDGE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY PROVIDING SUNNY SKIES AND SEASONABLY
WARM TEMPERATURES. THE ECMWF IS SHOWING AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPING IN
THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...HEADING
TOWARDS OUR REGION MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THIS SOLUTION DOES NOT
AGREE WITH THE GFS/CMC WHICH BOTH KEEP THE STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE. SO
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION DRY CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT.

THE RIDGE THEN STARTS TO BREAK DOWN SOMEWHAT WITH UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS LOWERING SLIGHTLY FOR TUESDAY. WILL MENTION ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME DUE TO LACK OF ANY PROMINENT FORCING
MECHANISM. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL START TO RISE AS WELL...WITH
DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE 60S. COMBINED WITH TEMPS IN THE 80S IT
WILL START TO FEEL MUGGY AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF LOW HUMIDITY FOR
EARLY JULY.

THERE APPEARS TO BE A SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT POSSIBLY MOVE THROUGH...ALTHOUGH THIS
IS NOT CONSISTENT AMONG THE GUIDANCE. THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL BE AN IMPORTANT FACTOR IN DETERMINING THE TIMING/STRENGTH
OF THE NEXT POTENTIAL CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
ARRIVING. WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY...AS THIS IS WHEN IT
LOOKS LIKE THE RIDGE WILL COMPLETELY BREAK DOWN...ALLOWING FOR A
BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
BE NEAR NORMAL FROM MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL PROVIDE CLEARING
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT. DESPITE A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS
IN PLACE...SOME RADIATIONAL FOG FORMATION WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOME
SPOTS. CONFIDENCE FOR FOG IS LOW...SO WILL ONLY MENTION MVFR VSBYS
FOR NOW AT KGFL/KPSF FROM 08Z-11Z...WITH PATCHY FOG NEAR KALB DUE
TO POSSIBLE FOG FORMING ALONG THE MOHAWK RIVER. SUBSEQUENT TAF
ISSUANCE WILL MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE FOG.

OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH ONLY A FEW FAIR
WEATHER CU AROUND FOR FRIDAY.

WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS THROUGH FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY...

EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WILL
BE THE USUAL NEARLY FULL RECOVERY EACH OF THE NEXT SEVERAL NIGHTS
WITH LIGHT OR CALM WINDS...YIELDING TO THE FORMATION OF DEW. RH
VALUES WILL DROP EACH AFTERNOON INTO THE 30S IN THE VALLEYS/40S
HIGHER TERRAIN. SUNSHINE WILL PREVAIL ALTHOUGH WILL BE MIXED
WITH A GOOD DEAL OF AFTERNOON CLOUDINESS ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF ALBANY.

THE WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT MAINLY FROM A NORTH TO NORTHWEST
DIRECTION UNDER 10 MPH DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING PRIMARILY SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. BASIN-AVERAGED RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON
SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS. RIVER
LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IRL
NEAR TERM...IRL/JPV
SHORT TERM...IRL
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/IRL
HYDROLOGY...IRL




000
FXUS61 KALY 030245
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1045 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY TO THE REGION. A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE COULD BRING AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ON
SATURDAY FOR AREAS MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.
DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1045 PM EDT...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION CONTINUES TO BUILD EASTWARD TONIGHT. AS THE HIGH CONTINUES
TO SHIFT CLOSER TO OUR REGION...CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT...BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY/MOSTLY CLEAR AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SOME THICKER HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IN PLACE FOR AREAS SOUTH
AND EAST OF ALBANY WILL DISSIPATE LATE TONIGHT.

TONIGHT WILL FEATURE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...ALLOWING
FOR A COOL NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

WINDS WILL TREND TOWARDS CALM OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FAVORED SHELTERED
VALLEYS AND LOCATIONS NEAR BODIES OF WATER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF A POPUP SHOWER/PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ON INDEPENDENCE
DAY/SATURDAY.

THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY RESULTING IN ANOTHER EXCELLENT
WEATHER DAY FEATURING DRY CONDITIONS AND HIGHS GENERALLY RANGING
FROM THE LOW 70S TO NEAR 80...WITH THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS IN THE
UPPER 60S AND A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY REACHING
INTO THE LOW 80S. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND 5 MPH.

THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST OF THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY...AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK
PIECE OF ENERGY IMPACT THE REGION FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. ANY
FORCING WITH THIS UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE LOOKS MARGINAL AT BEST
AND HAVE ONLY GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR A STRAY
SHOWER/PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. THIS UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER...WITH MOST AREAS PARTLY CLOUDY BUT STILL SEEING A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. WHILE THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME
WET WEATHER ON INDEPENDENCE DAY...IT APPEARS MOST LIKELY THAT IT
WILL BE DRY...ALTHOUGH AGAIN CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

ANY ONGOING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OVER IN TIME
FOR FIREWORKS SATURDAY NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPERATURES FALLING
INTO THE 60S ARE EXPECTED WITH EVENTUAL LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT
RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE REGION.

ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR
SUNDAY RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
70S TO LOW 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDING INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. MODELS INDICATING THE RIDGE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY PROVIDING SUNNY SKIES AND SEASONABLY
WARM TEMPERATURES. THE ECMWF IS SHOWING AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPING IN
THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...HEADING
TOWARDS OUR REGION MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THIS SOLUTION DOES NOT
AGREE WITH THE GFS/CMC WHICH BOTH KEEP THE STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE. SO
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION DRY CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT.

THE RIDGE THEN STARTS TO BREAK DOWN SOMEWHAT WITH UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS LOWERING SLIGHTLY FOR TUESDAY. WILL MENTION ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME DUE TO LACK OF ANY PROMINENT FORCING
MECHANISM. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL START TO RISE AS WELL...WITH
DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE 60S. COMBINED WITH TEMPS IN THE 80S IT
WILL START TO FEEL MUGGY AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF LOW HUMIDITY FOR
EARLY JULY.

THERE APPEARS TO BE A SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT POSSIBLY MOVE THROUGH...ALTHOUGH THIS
IS NOT CONSISTENT AMONG THE GUIDANCE. THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL BE AN IMPORTANT FACTOR IN DETERMINING THE TIMING/STRENGTH
OF THE NEXT POTENTIAL CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
ARRIVING. WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY...AS THIS IS WHEN IT
LOOKS LIKE THE RIDGE WILL COMPLETELY BREAK DOWN...ALLOWING FOR A
BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
BE NEAR NORMAL FROM MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL PROVIDE CLEARING
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT. DESPITE A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS
IN PLACE...SOME RADIATIONAL FOG FORMATION WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOME
SPOTS. CONFIDENCE FOR FOG IS LOW...SO WILL ONLY MENTION MVFR VSBYS
FOR NOW AT KGFL/KPSF FROM 08Z-11Z...WITH PATCHY FOG NEAR KALB DUE
TO POSSIBLE FOG FORMING ALONG THE MOHAWK RIVER. SUBSEQUENT TAF
ISSUANCE WILL MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE FOG.

OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH ONLY A FEW FAIR
WEATHER CU AROUND FOR FRIDAY.

WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS THROUGH FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY...

EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WILL
BE THE USUAL NEARLY FULL RECOVERY EACH OF THE NEXT SEVERAL NIGHTS
WITH LIGHT OR CALM WINDS...YIELDING TO THE FORMATION OF DEW. RH
VALUES WILL DROP EACH AFTERNOON INTO THE 30S IN THE VALLEYS/40S
HIGHER TERRAIN. SUNSHINE WILL PREVAIL ALTHOUGH WILL BE MIXED
WITH A GOOD DEAL OF AFTERNOON CLOUDINESS ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF ALBANY.

THE WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT MAINLY FROM A NORTH TO NORTHWEST
DIRECTION UNDER 10 MPH DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING PRIMARILY SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. BASIN-AVERAGED RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON
SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS. RIVER
LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IRL
NEAR TERM...IRL/JPV
SHORT TERM...IRL
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/IRL
HYDROLOGY...IRL



000
FXUS61 KALY 030245
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1045 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY TO THE REGION. A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE COULD BRING AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ON
SATURDAY FOR AREAS MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.
DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1045 PM EDT...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION CONTINUES TO BUILD EASTWARD TONIGHT. AS THE HIGH CONTINUES
TO SHIFT CLOSER TO OUR REGION...CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT...BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY/MOSTLY CLEAR AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SOME THICKER HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IN PLACE FOR AREAS SOUTH
AND EAST OF ALBANY WILL DISSIPATE LATE TONIGHT.

TONIGHT WILL FEATURE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...ALLOWING
FOR A COOL NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

WINDS WILL TREND TOWARDS CALM OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FAVORED SHELTERED
VALLEYS AND LOCATIONS NEAR BODIES OF WATER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF A POPUP SHOWER/PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ON INDEPENDENCE
DAY/SATURDAY.

THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY RESULTING IN ANOTHER EXCELLENT
WEATHER DAY FEATURING DRY CONDITIONS AND HIGHS GENERALLY RANGING
FROM THE LOW 70S TO NEAR 80...WITH THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS IN THE
UPPER 60S AND A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY REACHING
INTO THE LOW 80S. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND 5 MPH.

THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST OF THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY...AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK
PIECE OF ENERGY IMPACT THE REGION FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. ANY
FORCING WITH THIS UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE LOOKS MARGINAL AT BEST
AND HAVE ONLY GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR A STRAY
SHOWER/PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. THIS UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER...WITH MOST AREAS PARTLY CLOUDY BUT STILL SEEING A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. WHILE THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME
WET WEATHER ON INDEPENDENCE DAY...IT APPEARS MOST LIKELY THAT IT
WILL BE DRY...ALTHOUGH AGAIN CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

ANY ONGOING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OVER IN TIME
FOR FIREWORKS SATURDAY NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPERATURES FALLING
INTO THE 60S ARE EXPECTED WITH EVENTUAL LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT
RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE REGION.

ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR
SUNDAY RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
70S TO LOW 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDING INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. MODELS INDICATING THE RIDGE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY PROVIDING SUNNY SKIES AND SEASONABLY
WARM TEMPERATURES. THE ECMWF IS SHOWING AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPING IN
THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...HEADING
TOWARDS OUR REGION MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THIS SOLUTION DOES NOT
AGREE WITH THE GFS/CMC WHICH BOTH KEEP THE STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE. SO
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION DRY CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT.

THE RIDGE THEN STARTS TO BREAK DOWN SOMEWHAT WITH UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS LOWERING SLIGHTLY FOR TUESDAY. WILL MENTION ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME DUE TO LACK OF ANY PROMINENT FORCING
MECHANISM. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL START TO RISE AS WELL...WITH
DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE 60S. COMBINED WITH TEMPS IN THE 80S IT
WILL START TO FEEL MUGGY AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF LOW HUMIDITY FOR
EARLY JULY.

THERE APPEARS TO BE A SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT POSSIBLY MOVE THROUGH...ALTHOUGH THIS
IS NOT CONSISTENT AMONG THE GUIDANCE. THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL BE AN IMPORTANT FACTOR IN DETERMINING THE TIMING/STRENGTH
OF THE NEXT POTENTIAL CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
ARRIVING. WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY...AS THIS IS WHEN IT
LOOKS LIKE THE RIDGE WILL COMPLETELY BREAK DOWN...ALLOWING FOR A
BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
BE NEAR NORMAL FROM MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL PROVIDE CLEARING
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT. DESPITE A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS
IN PLACE...SOME RADIATIONAL FOG FORMATION WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOME
SPOTS. CONFIDENCE FOR FOG IS LOW...SO WILL ONLY MENTION MVFR VSBYS
FOR NOW AT KGFL/KPSF FROM 08Z-11Z...WITH PATCHY FOG NEAR KALB DUE
TO POSSIBLE FOG FORMING ALONG THE MOHAWK RIVER. SUBSEQUENT TAF
ISSUANCE WILL MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE FOG.

OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH ONLY A FEW FAIR
WEATHER CU AROUND FOR FRIDAY.

WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS THROUGH FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY...

EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WILL
BE THE USUAL NEARLY FULL RECOVERY EACH OF THE NEXT SEVERAL NIGHTS
WITH LIGHT OR CALM WINDS...YIELDING TO THE FORMATION OF DEW. RH
VALUES WILL DROP EACH AFTERNOON INTO THE 30S IN THE VALLEYS/40S
HIGHER TERRAIN. SUNSHINE WILL PREVAIL ALTHOUGH WILL BE MIXED
WITH A GOOD DEAL OF AFTERNOON CLOUDINESS ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF ALBANY.

THE WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT MAINLY FROM A NORTH TO NORTHWEST
DIRECTION UNDER 10 MPH DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING PRIMARILY SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. BASIN-AVERAGED RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON
SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS. RIVER
LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IRL
NEAR TERM...IRL/JPV
SHORT TERM...IRL
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/IRL
HYDROLOGY...IRL




000
FXUS61 KBOX 030233
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1033 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT SHIFTS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. A MAINLY QUIET
AND DRY 4TH OF JULY HOLIDAY WEEKEND BENEATH HIGH PRESSURE IS
MAINTAINED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEREAFTER THE WEATHER TAKES A
TURN TOWARDS A WARM...MUGGY...WET-WEATHER PATTERN WITH CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY MIDWEEK POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO THE
FOLLOWING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
1030 PM UPDATE...

REGIONAL RADAR DATA...AS WELL AS LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR...SHOWING
AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST OF NEW
ENGLAND. A SECONDARY STILL EXPECTING THE MAJORITY OF SHOWERS TO
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS. A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
OUR REGION WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR GENERATING THE SECOND AREA OF
SHOWERS ALONG AND SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. IT IS THIS AREA OF
SHOWERS WHICH WILL MOST LIKELY IMPACT CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS
LATER TONIGHT. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE OUT TO SEA LATE TONIGHT.

OTHER THAN TWEAKING POPS...ALSO TWEAKED SKY COVER AND TEMPERATURES
TO REFLECT LATEST OBSERVED TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE.
EXPECT CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE
LIGHT...SO LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE DAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW SEA
BREEZES TO FORM ALONG THE COASTS LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
MIXED LAYER IS FORECAST TO REACH 850 MB WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS AT
THAT LEVEL AROUND 10C. MIXING THIS TO THE SURFACE SHOULD SUPPORT
MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S...CALL IT 75 TO 80. COOLER VALUES WHERE
THE SEA BREEZE TAKES HOLD.

FRIDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST BUT REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER NEW ENGLAND.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND FORMS ANOTHER
WAVE ALONG THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH. THIS SHOULD GENERATE ANOTHER
AREA OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THAT APPROACH FROM OUR SOUTH OVERNIGHT.
WE WILL BRING SOME INCREASE IN SKY COVER DURING THE NIGHT WITH THE
MOST COVER ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. BUT THE DRY AIR IN PLACE AND THE
FOCUS OF SUPPORTING LIFT TO OUR SOUTH SHOULD KEEP THE WEATHER DRY.
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 50S...MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE 50S AND
AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - POSSIBLE SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR THE 4TH OF JULY?
 - DRY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...PERHAPS WARMER
 - RETURN OF WARM...MUGGY...AND WET-WEATHER BY MIDWEEK
 - CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN

*/ DISCUSSION...

AN EBB AND FLOW PATTERN. SHOULD A H5 LOW ANOMALY MAINTAIN ACROSS THE
N ATLANTIC WITH H5 RIDGING IN AND AROUND THE VICINITY OF THE W CONUS
THEN H5 TROUGHING WOULD BE PREFERRED THROUGH THE C-CONUS ALONG THE E-
PERIPHERY OF WHICH THE NE-CONUS WOULD EXPERIENCE AN ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN WHILE WOBBLING BETWEEN AIRMASSES. NOTHING IS CERTAIN AS THE
ATMOSPHERIC IS CHAOTIC...BUT INTERPRETING ANOMALIES AS OF LATE WHILE
INTERROGATING ENSEMBLE DATA LEADS TO CONFIDENCE THAT WE WILL NOT BE
SEEING HEAT-WAVES NOR 100-DEGREE TEMPERATURES ANYTIME SOON. A SWAY
OF TEMPERATURES NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WITH EXCHANGING
AIRMASSES...GOING FROM COOL AND DRY TO WARM AND MUGGY...A
PATTERN AS OF LATE THAT IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE. IT WILL BE
INTERESTING TO SEE IF WE DRAW PARALLELS TO THE WEAK EL-NINO SUMMER
OF 2004 WITH THE C-CONUS HAVING WELL BELOW-NORMAL SUMMER
TEMPERATURES WITH THE NE-CONUS HOLDING NEAR-NORMAL.

LETS KEEP IT SIMPLE AND STRAIGHT-FORWARD WITH THE ABOVE DISCUSSION
IN MIND. A CONSENSUS OF FORECAST GUIDANCE IS WARRANTED AS THERE IS
OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY MIDWEEK THERE ARE
SIGNALS OF DISCREPANCY AS FORECAST GUIDANCE HANDLES THE RETURN OF
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. BEST TO LOOK AT CIPS ANALOGS TO SEE IF THERE IS ANY-
THING WE SHOULD BE CONCERNED ABOUT ON THE HORIZON.

*/ DAILIES...

JULY 4TH WEEKEND:

18Z UPDATE...

THE 02.18Z GFS CONSIDERABLY OBLITERATES 4TH OF JULY FESTIVITIES
WITH A DECENT SLUG OF RAIN AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS
ACROSS S NEW ENGLAND. APPEARING AS AN OUTLIER AS OF PRESENT AND
WILL TREAT IT AS SO. NEVERTHELESS THE 02.12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLES HAVE
ROUGHLY A SPLIT OF 50 MEMBERS...HALF DRY AND THE OTHER HALF
SUGGESTING SOME SORT OF WET-WEATHER. 02.18Z NAM CONTINUES THE
FORECAST TREND OF WET-WEATHER OVER PA PERHAPS ADVECTING E/NE WITH
THE MEAN FLOW INTO S NEW ENGLAND BY WHICH TIME IT IS MAINLY MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS INTO AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR.

WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE-EYE ON THIS EVER CHANGING FORECAST AND
NOW A GROWING UNCERTAINTY THAT IT MAY NOT REMAIN DRY OVER S NEW
ENGLAND AFTER ALL.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY-CAPPING MECHANISM KEEPS US PERHAPS QUIET
AND DRY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD? YET THERE HAS BEEN AN INDICATION OF A
STOUT STRETCHED MID-LEVEL VORTEX THROUGH THE OVERALL TROUGH-PATTERN
FOR QUITE SOME TIME. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE RELATIVE STRENGTH OF
THE HIGH UP AGAINST THE FORCING MECHANISMS ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL
ENERGY ALOFT...WHETHER WE CAN GET SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY MAINLY PER
MID-LEVEL FORCING IN WHAT APPEARS TO BE A RATHER DRY ENVIRONMENT
WITH A MEASURE OF STABILITY. WILL KEEP WITH A MOSTLY-DRY FORECAST
FOR NOW BUT HOLDING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER S AND W PORTIONS OF S
NEW ENGLAND...WITH CHANCE POPS S OFFSHORE.

OTHERWISE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECKS ENCROACH FROM THE WEST. FLOW
LOOKS TO BE RATHER LIGHT...AND BENEATH HIGH PRESSURE MAY MAKE FOR
SOME SMOKEY FIREWORKS DISPLAYS. PERHAPS SOME FASTER FLOW MOVES IN BY
3Z AS THE 02.12Z NAM SUGGESTS BUT THINK ITS TOO ROBUST. WIND SPEEDS
THROUGH MIDNIGHT LOOK TO BE AROUND 5 MPH AND NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR AS
FROM WHAT DIRECTION. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT.

EARLY NEXT WEEK:

KEEPING IT DRY. HIGH PRESSURE SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION. CHILLY INTO
MONDAY MORNING BUT BEGIN TO SEE RETURN S-FLOW BY THE END OF THE DAY
GOING ON INTO TUESDAY. COULD SEE A WARMER-THAN-AVERAGE PATTERN AT
LEAST BY TUESDAY WITH H85 +14C AIR MOVING IN ALOFT. HIGHS AROUND THE
MID-80S WITH LOW-LYING INTERIOR RIVER VALLEYS INTO THE UPPER-80S.

MIDWEEK:

A RETURN OF WARM-MUGGY CONDITIONS AHEAD OF A SWEEPING SYNOPTIC LOW
DISTURBANCE FROM THE N. INCREASING INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE ALONG
AND AHEAD. CONFIDENCE TOWARDS CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
FROM THE CIPS ANALOG GUIDANCE...ANALOGS DERIVED FROM THE 0Z GEFS
HAVE A 60% CHANCE OF ABOVE-AVERAGE PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NE-CONUS...AND NATURALLY WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED ENVIRONMENT...THE
THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

SHOULD THE TROUGHING PATTERN PERSIST AS A CONSENSUS OF DETERMINISTIC
SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THEN WE COULD BE LOOKING AT ROUNDS OF WET-WEATHER
ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. LOW CONFIDENCE. NO
CERTAINTY ON OUTCOMES. WILL MAINTAIN SEASONABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH-
OUT THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

0230Z UPDATE...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. LIGHT WINDS GRADUALLY TURNING E/SE. SCATTERED SHRA TOWARD
CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS FOR A TIME AROUND MIDNIGHT. POSSIBLE IFR
FOG TOWARDS MORNING.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING.

FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VFR. VRB WINDS WITH SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE COASTS. MORE PROMINENT S-
WINDS BY TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

1030 PM UPDATE...

WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST TO NORTH...BUT REMAIN
WELL BELOW 20 KNOTS. FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER NEW ENGLAND. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

VARIABLE WINDS THROUGHOUT WITH SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE COASTS WILL
MAKE FOR GOOD BOATING WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY. MORE PROMINENT S-WINDS
ARE ANTICIPATED BY TUESDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 KTS. WILL HOLD SEAS
BELOW 5-FEET DESPITE ANTICIPATED SWELL FROM W-E S-OFFSHORE STORM
SYSTEMS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...WTB/BELK/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...BELK/WTB/SIPPRELL
MARINE...BELK/WTB/SIPPRELL




000
FXUS61 KBOX 030233
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1033 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT SHIFTS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. A MAINLY QUIET
AND DRY 4TH OF JULY HOLIDAY WEEKEND BENEATH HIGH PRESSURE IS
MAINTAINED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEREAFTER THE WEATHER TAKES A
TURN TOWARDS A WARM...MUGGY...WET-WEATHER PATTERN WITH CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY MIDWEEK POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO THE
FOLLOWING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
1030 PM UPDATE...

REGIONAL RADAR DATA...AS WELL AS LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR...SHOWING
AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST OF NEW
ENGLAND. A SECONDARY STILL EXPECTING THE MAJORITY OF SHOWERS TO
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS. A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
OUR REGION WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR GENERATING THE SECOND AREA OF
SHOWERS ALONG AND SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. IT IS THIS AREA OF
SHOWERS WHICH WILL MOST LIKELY IMPACT CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS
LATER TONIGHT. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE OUT TO SEA LATE TONIGHT.

OTHER THAN TWEAKING POPS...ALSO TWEAKED SKY COVER AND TEMPERATURES
TO REFLECT LATEST OBSERVED TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE.
EXPECT CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE
LIGHT...SO LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE DAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW SEA
BREEZES TO FORM ALONG THE COASTS LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
MIXED LAYER IS FORECAST TO REACH 850 MB WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS AT
THAT LEVEL AROUND 10C. MIXING THIS TO THE SURFACE SHOULD SUPPORT
MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S...CALL IT 75 TO 80. COOLER VALUES WHERE
THE SEA BREEZE TAKES HOLD.

FRIDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST BUT REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER NEW ENGLAND.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND FORMS ANOTHER
WAVE ALONG THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH. THIS SHOULD GENERATE ANOTHER
AREA OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THAT APPROACH FROM OUR SOUTH OVERNIGHT.
WE WILL BRING SOME INCREASE IN SKY COVER DURING THE NIGHT WITH THE
MOST COVER ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. BUT THE DRY AIR IN PLACE AND THE
FOCUS OF SUPPORTING LIFT TO OUR SOUTH SHOULD KEEP THE WEATHER DRY.
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 50S...MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE 50S AND
AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - POSSIBLE SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR THE 4TH OF JULY?
 - DRY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...PERHAPS WARMER
 - RETURN OF WARM...MUGGY...AND WET-WEATHER BY MIDWEEK
 - CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN

*/ DISCUSSION...

AN EBB AND FLOW PATTERN. SHOULD A H5 LOW ANOMALY MAINTAIN ACROSS THE
N ATLANTIC WITH H5 RIDGING IN AND AROUND THE VICINITY OF THE W CONUS
THEN H5 TROUGHING WOULD BE PREFERRED THROUGH THE C-CONUS ALONG THE E-
PERIPHERY OF WHICH THE NE-CONUS WOULD EXPERIENCE AN ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN WHILE WOBBLING BETWEEN AIRMASSES. NOTHING IS CERTAIN AS THE
ATMOSPHERIC IS CHAOTIC...BUT INTERPRETING ANOMALIES AS OF LATE WHILE
INTERROGATING ENSEMBLE DATA LEADS TO CONFIDENCE THAT WE WILL NOT BE
SEEING HEAT-WAVES NOR 100-DEGREE TEMPERATURES ANYTIME SOON. A SWAY
OF TEMPERATURES NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WITH EXCHANGING
AIRMASSES...GOING FROM COOL AND DRY TO WARM AND MUGGY...A
PATTERN AS OF LATE THAT IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE. IT WILL BE
INTERESTING TO SEE IF WE DRAW PARALLELS TO THE WEAK EL-NINO SUMMER
OF 2004 WITH THE C-CONUS HAVING WELL BELOW-NORMAL SUMMER
TEMPERATURES WITH THE NE-CONUS HOLDING NEAR-NORMAL.

LETS KEEP IT SIMPLE AND STRAIGHT-FORWARD WITH THE ABOVE DISCUSSION
IN MIND. A CONSENSUS OF FORECAST GUIDANCE IS WARRANTED AS THERE IS
OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY MIDWEEK THERE ARE
SIGNALS OF DISCREPANCY AS FORECAST GUIDANCE HANDLES THE RETURN OF
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. BEST TO LOOK AT CIPS ANALOGS TO SEE IF THERE IS ANY-
THING WE SHOULD BE CONCERNED ABOUT ON THE HORIZON.

*/ DAILIES...

JULY 4TH WEEKEND:

18Z UPDATE...

THE 02.18Z GFS CONSIDERABLY OBLITERATES 4TH OF JULY FESTIVITIES
WITH A DECENT SLUG OF RAIN AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS
ACROSS S NEW ENGLAND. APPEARING AS AN OUTLIER AS OF PRESENT AND
WILL TREAT IT AS SO. NEVERTHELESS THE 02.12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLES HAVE
ROUGHLY A SPLIT OF 50 MEMBERS...HALF DRY AND THE OTHER HALF
SUGGESTING SOME SORT OF WET-WEATHER. 02.18Z NAM CONTINUES THE
FORECAST TREND OF WET-WEATHER OVER PA PERHAPS ADVECTING E/NE WITH
THE MEAN FLOW INTO S NEW ENGLAND BY WHICH TIME IT IS MAINLY MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS INTO AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR.

WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE-EYE ON THIS EVER CHANGING FORECAST AND
NOW A GROWING UNCERTAINTY THAT IT MAY NOT REMAIN DRY OVER S NEW
ENGLAND AFTER ALL.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY-CAPPING MECHANISM KEEPS US PERHAPS QUIET
AND DRY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD? YET THERE HAS BEEN AN INDICATION OF A
STOUT STRETCHED MID-LEVEL VORTEX THROUGH THE OVERALL TROUGH-PATTERN
FOR QUITE SOME TIME. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE RELATIVE STRENGTH OF
THE HIGH UP AGAINST THE FORCING MECHANISMS ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL
ENERGY ALOFT...WHETHER WE CAN GET SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY MAINLY PER
MID-LEVEL FORCING IN WHAT APPEARS TO BE A RATHER DRY ENVIRONMENT
WITH A MEASURE OF STABILITY. WILL KEEP WITH A MOSTLY-DRY FORECAST
FOR NOW BUT HOLDING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER S AND W PORTIONS OF S
NEW ENGLAND...WITH CHANCE POPS S OFFSHORE.

OTHERWISE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECKS ENCROACH FROM THE WEST. FLOW
LOOKS TO BE RATHER LIGHT...AND BENEATH HIGH PRESSURE MAY MAKE FOR
SOME SMOKEY FIREWORKS DISPLAYS. PERHAPS SOME FASTER FLOW MOVES IN BY
3Z AS THE 02.12Z NAM SUGGESTS BUT THINK ITS TOO ROBUST. WIND SPEEDS
THROUGH MIDNIGHT LOOK TO BE AROUND 5 MPH AND NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR AS
FROM WHAT DIRECTION. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT.

EARLY NEXT WEEK:

KEEPING IT DRY. HIGH PRESSURE SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION. CHILLY INTO
MONDAY MORNING BUT BEGIN TO SEE RETURN S-FLOW BY THE END OF THE DAY
GOING ON INTO TUESDAY. COULD SEE A WARMER-THAN-AVERAGE PATTERN AT
LEAST BY TUESDAY WITH H85 +14C AIR MOVING IN ALOFT. HIGHS AROUND THE
MID-80S WITH LOW-LYING INTERIOR RIVER VALLEYS INTO THE UPPER-80S.

MIDWEEK:

A RETURN OF WARM-MUGGY CONDITIONS AHEAD OF A SWEEPING SYNOPTIC LOW
DISTURBANCE FROM THE N. INCREASING INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE ALONG
AND AHEAD. CONFIDENCE TOWARDS CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
FROM THE CIPS ANALOG GUIDANCE...ANALOGS DERIVED FROM THE 0Z GEFS
HAVE A 60% CHANCE OF ABOVE-AVERAGE PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NE-CONUS...AND NATURALLY WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED ENVIRONMENT...THE
THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

SHOULD THE TROUGHING PATTERN PERSIST AS A CONSENSUS OF DETERMINISTIC
SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THEN WE COULD BE LOOKING AT ROUNDS OF WET-WEATHER
ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. LOW CONFIDENCE. NO
CERTAINTY ON OUTCOMES. WILL MAINTAIN SEASONABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH-
OUT THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

0230Z UPDATE...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. LIGHT WINDS GRADUALLY TURNING E/SE. SCATTERED SHRA TOWARD
CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS FOR A TIME AROUND MIDNIGHT. POSSIBLE IFR
FOG TOWARDS MORNING.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING.

FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VFR. VRB WINDS WITH SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE COASTS. MORE PROMINENT S-
WINDS BY TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

1030 PM UPDATE...

WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST TO NORTH...BUT REMAIN
WELL BELOW 20 KNOTS. FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER NEW ENGLAND. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

VARIABLE WINDS THROUGHOUT WITH SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE COASTS WILL
MAKE FOR GOOD BOATING WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY. MORE PROMINENT S-WINDS
ARE ANTICIPATED BY TUESDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 KTS. WILL HOLD SEAS
BELOW 5-FEET DESPITE ANTICIPATED SWELL FROM W-E S-OFFSHORE STORM
SYSTEMS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...WTB/BELK/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...BELK/WTB/SIPPRELL
MARINE...BELK/WTB/SIPPRELL



000
FXUS61 KOKX 030128
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
928 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST ACROSS
THE AREA ON FRIDAY. A SECOND WEAK LOW WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH ON
INDEPENDENCE DAY. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THIS EVENING. SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM
THE SOUTHWEST AROUND MEAN UPPER TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED A FEW SHOWERS
ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES OF NYC/NJ METRO AND SOUTHWESTERN LONG
ISLAND. 00Z OKX SOUNDING DEPICTED SOME LOW LEVEL DRY AIR THAT HAS
LIKELY PREVENTED MUCH MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION SO FAR OUT THESE
SHOWERS. NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH EXPECTED
OUT OF THIS ACTIVITY. THE SHOWERS SLIDE TO THE EAST IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...EXITING THE AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT.

OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY CLEAR FROM
WEST TO EAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS THE SHORTWAVE
SHIFTS EAST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN THE
INTERIOR...TO THE LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE. THIS IS ACTUALLY SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SHORT WAVE RIDGING ON FRI WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO BUILD EAST THROUGH FRI NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT PIECE OF
SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE LATTER OF
WHICH WILL SEND A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES BY DAYBREAK SAT.

FRI INTO FRI NIGHT WILL BE DRY WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S...AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. THIS IS
AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM
THE SW FRI NIGHT.

THERE IS MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON FRI.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECAST FOR THE 4TH OF JULY IS TRICKY WITH MODELS IN DISAGREEMENT
REGARDING OUR CHANCES OF RAINFALL. FOR THE 12Z SUITE...NAM IS DRY
DURING THE DAY AND NIGHT...WITH GFS/ECMWF/CMC SHOWING SOME QPF
OUTPUT. MOST OF THE MODELS WOULD IMPLY THAT THE MORNING HOURS ARE
MORE LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY AND ANY RAINFALL WOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE SOUTH. STILL...WILL BE KEEPING
AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES FOR THE
MORNING. FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES
AND COULD TAP INTO ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM FOR MAINLY THE NW ZONES. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
SHOWER FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES DUE TO THE PROXIMITY TO THE OFFSHORE
LOW. IN ANY CASE...THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A WASHOUT...BUT THE
CHANCES OF A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY DOESN`T LOOK TOO HIGH AT THIS POINT.
WENT SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN A MAV/NAM MOS BLEND FOR HIGH TEMPS.

SUNDAY ON THE OTHER HAND LOOKS LIKE IT WILL FEATURE A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE...BUT THERE
COULD BE SOME CLOUD BUILDUP IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE EASTERN ZONES
AS THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS CYCLONIC. THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN AT LEAST
LOOKS TOO DRY FOR A MENTION OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 80S.

REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD PROBABLY REMAINS DRY FOR THE MOST PART
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. ECMWF REMAINS A QUICK OUTLIER WITH
BRINGING IN RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH STARTING LATE IN THE DAY
MONDAY. WILL GO WITH DRY WEATHER FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT LEAVE IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE GRIDS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHEN THE OTHER GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SOME
SHOWERS COULD OCCUR. HIGHS IN THE 80S THROUGH THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH
WITH THE CLOUD COVER...THURSDAY IS FORECAST TO BE ONLY AROUND 80.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE TERMINALS TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH. THE
HIGH SHIFTS TO OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

THE WIND WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. A LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPS
FRIDAY MORNING. SEA BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
TERMINALS DURING THE AFTERNOON...17Z THROUGH 21Z.


     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: A BRIEF SHOWER IS POSSIBLE THROUGH 0030Z WITH
VFR CONDITIONS. A SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND MAY BE AN HOUR OR TWO EARLIER THAN FORECAST. MODERATE
TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: A BRIEF SHOWER IS POSSIBLE THROUGH 0030Z WITH
VFR CONDITIONS. A SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MAY BE
AROUND AN HOUR EARLIER THAN FORECAST. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: A BRIEF SHOWER IS POSSIBLE THROUGH 00Z WITH
VFR CONDITIONS. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: A SEA BREEZE IS POSSIBLE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
AND MAY NOT MOVE THROUGH. POSSIBLE WIND REMAINS LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THROUGH THE FORECAST. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: A SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. POSSIBLE THE WIND BECOMES LIGHT AND VARIABLE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: A BRIEF SHOWER IS POSSIBLE THROUGH 01Z WITH
VFR CONDITIONS. A SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND MAY BE AN HOUR OR TWO EARLIER THAN FORECAST. MODERATE
TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.


.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW.
.SATURDAY...VFR...A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH FRI NIGHT AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES
SOUTH OF THE WATERS TONIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO NORTH ON
FRI.

WINDS AND SEAS LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE...RESULTING
IN LIGHT WINDS. A SWELL COULD POTENTIALLY BRING OCEAN SEAS CLOSE
TO 5 FT DURING SATURDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS LOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A RECENT FULL MOON...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 3/4 TO 1 1/2
FT ARE NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED
AT THE PEAK OF THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDES THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MINOR
BENCHMARKS COULD BRIEFLY BE TOUCHED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF
NASSAU COUNTY THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/DW
NEAR TERM...DS/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JC/DW
HYDROLOGY...JC/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KOKX 030128
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
928 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST ACROSS
THE AREA ON FRIDAY. A SECOND WEAK LOW WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH ON
INDEPENDENCE DAY. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THIS EVENING. SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM
THE SOUTHWEST AROUND MEAN UPPER TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED A FEW SHOWERS
ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES OF NYC/NJ METRO AND SOUTHWESTERN LONG
ISLAND. 00Z OKX SOUNDING DEPICTED SOME LOW LEVEL DRY AIR THAT HAS
LIKELY PREVENTED MUCH MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION SO FAR OUT THESE
SHOWERS. NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH EXPECTED
OUT OF THIS ACTIVITY. THE SHOWERS SLIDE TO THE EAST IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...EXITING THE AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT.

OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY CLEAR FROM
WEST TO EAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS THE SHORTWAVE
SHIFTS EAST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN THE
INTERIOR...TO THE LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE. THIS IS ACTUALLY SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SHORT WAVE RIDGING ON FRI WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO BUILD EAST THROUGH FRI NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT PIECE OF
SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE LATTER OF
WHICH WILL SEND A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES BY DAYBREAK SAT.

FRI INTO FRI NIGHT WILL BE DRY WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S...AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. THIS IS
AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM
THE SW FRI NIGHT.

THERE IS MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON FRI.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECAST FOR THE 4TH OF JULY IS TRICKY WITH MODELS IN DISAGREEMENT
REGARDING OUR CHANCES OF RAINFALL. FOR THE 12Z SUITE...NAM IS DRY
DURING THE DAY AND NIGHT...WITH GFS/ECMWF/CMC SHOWING SOME QPF
OUTPUT. MOST OF THE MODELS WOULD IMPLY THAT THE MORNING HOURS ARE
MORE LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY AND ANY RAINFALL WOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE SOUTH. STILL...WILL BE KEEPING
AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES FOR THE
MORNING. FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES
AND COULD TAP INTO ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM FOR MAINLY THE NW ZONES. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
SHOWER FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES DUE TO THE PROXIMITY TO THE OFFSHORE
LOW. IN ANY CASE...THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A WASHOUT...BUT THE
CHANCES OF A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY DOESN`T LOOK TOO HIGH AT THIS POINT.
WENT SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN A MAV/NAM MOS BLEND FOR HIGH TEMPS.

SUNDAY ON THE OTHER HAND LOOKS LIKE IT WILL FEATURE A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE...BUT THERE
COULD BE SOME CLOUD BUILDUP IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE EASTERN ZONES
AS THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS CYCLONIC. THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN AT LEAST
LOOKS TOO DRY FOR A MENTION OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 80S.

REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD PROBABLY REMAINS DRY FOR THE MOST PART
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. ECMWF REMAINS A QUICK OUTLIER WITH
BRINGING IN RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH STARTING LATE IN THE DAY
MONDAY. WILL GO WITH DRY WEATHER FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT LEAVE IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE GRIDS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHEN THE OTHER GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SOME
SHOWERS COULD OCCUR. HIGHS IN THE 80S THROUGH THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH
WITH THE CLOUD COVER...THURSDAY IS FORECAST TO BE ONLY AROUND 80.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE TERMINALS TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH. THE
HIGH SHIFTS TO OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

THE WIND WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. A LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPS
FRIDAY MORNING. SEA BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
TERMINALS DURING THE AFTERNOON...17Z THROUGH 21Z.


     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: A BRIEF SHOWER IS POSSIBLE THROUGH 0030Z WITH
VFR CONDITIONS. A SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND MAY BE AN HOUR OR TWO EARLIER THAN FORECAST. MODERATE
TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: A BRIEF SHOWER IS POSSIBLE THROUGH 0030Z WITH
VFR CONDITIONS. A SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MAY BE
AROUND AN HOUR EARLIER THAN FORECAST. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: A BRIEF SHOWER IS POSSIBLE THROUGH 00Z WITH
VFR CONDITIONS. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: A SEA BREEZE IS POSSIBLE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
AND MAY NOT MOVE THROUGH. POSSIBLE WIND REMAINS LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THROUGH THE FORECAST. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: A SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. POSSIBLE THE WIND BECOMES LIGHT AND VARIABLE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: A BRIEF SHOWER IS POSSIBLE THROUGH 01Z WITH
VFR CONDITIONS. A SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND MAY BE AN HOUR OR TWO EARLIER THAN FORECAST. MODERATE
TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.


.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW.
.SATURDAY...VFR...A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH FRI NIGHT AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES
SOUTH OF THE WATERS TONIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO NORTH ON
FRI.

WINDS AND SEAS LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE...RESULTING
IN LIGHT WINDS. A SWELL COULD POTENTIALLY BRING OCEAN SEAS CLOSE
TO 5 FT DURING SATURDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS LOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A RECENT FULL MOON...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 3/4 TO 1 1/2
FT ARE NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED
AT THE PEAK OF THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDES THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MINOR
BENCHMARKS COULD BRIEFLY BE TOUCHED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF
NASSAU COUNTY THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/DW
NEAR TERM...DS/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JC/DW
HYDROLOGY...JC/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KOKX 022342
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
742 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST ACROSS
THE AREA ON FRIDAY. A SECOND WEAK LOW WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH ON
INDEPENDENCE DAY. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST GENERALLY ON TRACK. THE ONLY CHANGES WERE TO REMOVE
MENTION OF THUNDER ACROSS THE INTERIOR AS THERE IS LITTLE TO NO
INSTABILITY. ALSO..HAVE ADDED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE SOUTHERN
ZONES OF NYC/NJ METRO AND SOUTHERN LONG ISLAND. SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST HAS DEVELOPED A FEW SHOWERS SW OF THE
REGION...AND THESE COULD MOVE IN AS THE SHORTWAVE NEARS THIS
EVENING. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS EXISTS FURTHER NORTH. ANY
SHOWERS WILL BE BRIEF AND ONLY PRODUCE LIGHT AMOUNTS.

OTHERWISE...THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EAST TO
END THE WEEK WITH THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF LOWS TO PASS SOUTH
TONIGHT ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT. CANOPY OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL RESIDES ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
NIGHT WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THE RAIN SHIELD WITH THE
LOW CONTINUES TO STAY SOUTH LI THIS EVENING...PERHAPS GRAZING THE
SOUTH FORK OF LI.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN THE INTERIOR...TO THE
LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE. THIS IS ACTUALLY SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SHORT WAVE RIDGING ON FRI WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO BUILD EAST THROUGH FRI NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT PIECE OF
SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE LATTER OF
WHICH WILL SEND A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES BY DAYBREAK SAT.

FRI INTO FRI NIGHT WILL BE DRY WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S...AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. THIS IS
AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM
THE SW FRI NIGHT.

THERE IS MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON FRI.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECAST FOR THE 4TH OF JULY IS TRICKY WITH MODELS IN DISAGREEMENT
REGARDING OUR CHANCES OF RAINFALL. FOR THE 12Z SUITE...NAM IS DRY
DURING THE DAY AND NIGHT...WITH GFS/ECMWF/CMC SHOWING SOME QPF
OUTPUT. MOST OF THE MODELS WOULD IMPLY THAT THE MORNING HOURS ARE
MORE LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY AND ANY RAINFALL WOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE SOUTH. STILL...WILL BE KEEPING
AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES FOR THE
MORNING. FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES
AND COULD TAP INTO ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM FOR MAINLY THE NW ZONES. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
SHOWER FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES DUE TO THE PROXIMITY TO THE OFFSHORE
LOW. IN ANY CASE...THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A WASHOUT...BUT THE
CHANCES OF A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY DOESN`T LOOK TOO HIGH AT THIS POINT.
WENT SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN A MAV/NAM MOS BLEND FOR HIGH TEMPS.

SUNDAY ON THE OTHER HAND LOOKS LIKE IT WILL FEATURE A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE...BUT THERE
COULD BE SOME CLOUD BUILDUP IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE EASTERN ZONES
AS THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS CYCLONIC. THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN AT LEAST
LOOKS TOO DRY FOR A MENTION OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 80S.

REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD PROBABLY REMAINS DRY FOR THE MOST PART
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. ECMWF REMAINS A QUICK OUTLIER WITH
BRINGING IN RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH STARTING LATE IN THE DAY
MONDAY. WILL GO WITH DRY WEATHER FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT LEAVE IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE GRIDS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHEN THE OTHER GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SOME
SHOWERS COULD OCCUR. HIGHS IN THE 80S THROUGH THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH
WITH THE CLOUD COVER...THURSDAY IS FORECAST TO BE ONLY AROUND 80.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE TERMINALS TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH. THE
HIGH SHIFTS TO OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

THE WIND WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. A LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPS
FRIDAY MORNING. SEA BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
TERMINALS DURING THE AFTERNOON...17Z THROUGH 21Z.


     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: A BRIEF SHOWER IS POSSIBLE THROUGH 0030Z WITH
VFR CONDITIONS. A SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND MAY BE AN HOUR OR TWO EARLIER THAN FORECAST. MODERATE
TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: A BRIEF SHOWER IS POSSIBLE THROUGH 0030Z WITH
VFR CONDITIONS. A SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MAY BE
AROUND AN HOUR EARLIER THAN FORECAST. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: A BRIEF SHOWER IS POSSIBLE THROUGH 00Z WITH
VFR CONDITIONS. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: A SEA BREEZE IS POSSIBLE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
AND MAY NOT MOVE THROUGH. POSSIBLE WIND REMAINS LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THROUGH THE FORECAST. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: A SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. POSSIBLE THE WIND BECOMES LIGHT AND VARIABLE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: A BRIEF SHOWER IS POSSIBLE THROUGH 01Z WITH
VFR CONDITIONS. A SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND MAY BE AN HOUR OR TWO EARLIER THAN FORECAST. MODERATE
TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.


.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW.
.SATURDAY...VFR...A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH FRI NIGHT AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES
SOUTH OF THE WATERS TONIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO NORTH ON
FRI.

WINDS AND SEAS LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE...RESULTING
IN LIGHT WINDS. A SWELL COULD POTENTIALLY BRING OCEAN SEAS CLOSE
TO 5 FT DURING SATURDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS LOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A RECENT FULL MOON...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 3/4 TO 1 1/2
FT ARE NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED
AT THE PEAK OF THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDES THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MINOR
BENCHMARKS COULD BRIEFLY BE TOUCHED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF
NASSAU COUNTY THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/DW
NEAR TERM...DS/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JC/DW
HYDROLOGY...JC/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KOKX 022342
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
742 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST ACROSS
THE AREA ON FRIDAY. A SECOND WEAK LOW WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH ON
INDEPENDENCE DAY. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST GENERALLY ON TRACK. THE ONLY CHANGES WERE TO REMOVE
MENTION OF THUNDER ACROSS THE INTERIOR AS THERE IS LITTLE TO NO
INSTABILITY. ALSO..HAVE ADDED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE SOUTHERN
ZONES OF NYC/NJ METRO AND SOUTHERN LONG ISLAND. SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST HAS DEVELOPED A FEW SHOWERS SW OF THE
REGION...AND THESE COULD MOVE IN AS THE SHORTWAVE NEARS THIS
EVENING. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS EXISTS FURTHER NORTH. ANY
SHOWERS WILL BE BRIEF AND ONLY PRODUCE LIGHT AMOUNTS.

OTHERWISE...THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EAST TO
END THE WEEK WITH THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF LOWS TO PASS SOUTH
TONIGHT ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT. CANOPY OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL RESIDES ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
NIGHT WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THE RAIN SHIELD WITH THE
LOW CONTINUES TO STAY SOUTH LI THIS EVENING...PERHAPS GRAZING THE
SOUTH FORK OF LI.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN THE INTERIOR...TO THE
LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE. THIS IS ACTUALLY SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SHORT WAVE RIDGING ON FRI WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO BUILD EAST THROUGH FRI NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT PIECE OF
SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE LATTER OF
WHICH WILL SEND A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES BY DAYBREAK SAT.

FRI INTO FRI NIGHT WILL BE DRY WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S...AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. THIS IS
AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM
THE SW FRI NIGHT.

THERE IS MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON FRI.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECAST FOR THE 4TH OF JULY IS TRICKY WITH MODELS IN DISAGREEMENT
REGARDING OUR CHANCES OF RAINFALL. FOR THE 12Z SUITE...NAM IS DRY
DURING THE DAY AND NIGHT...WITH GFS/ECMWF/CMC SHOWING SOME QPF
OUTPUT. MOST OF THE MODELS WOULD IMPLY THAT THE MORNING HOURS ARE
MORE LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY AND ANY RAINFALL WOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE SOUTH. STILL...WILL BE KEEPING
AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES FOR THE
MORNING. FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES
AND COULD TAP INTO ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM FOR MAINLY THE NW ZONES. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
SHOWER FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES DUE TO THE PROXIMITY TO THE OFFSHORE
LOW. IN ANY CASE...THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A WASHOUT...BUT THE
CHANCES OF A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY DOESN`T LOOK TOO HIGH AT THIS POINT.
WENT SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN A MAV/NAM MOS BLEND FOR HIGH TEMPS.

SUNDAY ON THE OTHER HAND LOOKS LIKE IT WILL FEATURE A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE...BUT THERE
COULD BE SOME CLOUD BUILDUP IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE EASTERN ZONES
AS THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS CYCLONIC. THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN AT LEAST
LOOKS TOO DRY FOR A MENTION OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 80S.

REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD PROBABLY REMAINS DRY FOR THE MOST PART
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. ECMWF REMAINS A QUICK OUTLIER WITH
BRINGING IN RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH STARTING LATE IN THE DAY
MONDAY. WILL GO WITH DRY WEATHER FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT LEAVE IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE GRIDS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHEN THE OTHER GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SOME
SHOWERS COULD OCCUR. HIGHS IN THE 80S THROUGH THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH
WITH THE CLOUD COVER...THURSDAY IS FORECAST TO BE ONLY AROUND 80.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE TERMINALS TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH. THE
HIGH SHIFTS TO OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

THE WIND WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. A LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPS
FRIDAY MORNING. SEA BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
TERMINALS DURING THE AFTERNOON...17Z THROUGH 21Z.


     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: A BRIEF SHOWER IS POSSIBLE THROUGH 0030Z WITH
VFR CONDITIONS. A SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND MAY BE AN HOUR OR TWO EARLIER THAN FORECAST. MODERATE
TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: A BRIEF SHOWER IS POSSIBLE THROUGH 0030Z WITH
VFR CONDITIONS. A SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MAY BE
AROUND AN HOUR EARLIER THAN FORECAST. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: A BRIEF SHOWER IS POSSIBLE THROUGH 00Z WITH
VFR CONDITIONS. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: A SEA BREEZE IS POSSIBLE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
AND MAY NOT MOVE THROUGH. POSSIBLE WIND REMAINS LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THROUGH THE FORECAST. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: A SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. POSSIBLE THE WIND BECOMES LIGHT AND VARIABLE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: A BRIEF SHOWER IS POSSIBLE THROUGH 01Z WITH
VFR CONDITIONS. A SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND MAY BE AN HOUR OR TWO EARLIER THAN FORECAST. MODERATE
TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.


.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW.
.SATURDAY...VFR...A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH FRI NIGHT AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES
SOUTH OF THE WATERS TONIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO NORTH ON
FRI.

WINDS AND SEAS LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE...RESULTING
IN LIGHT WINDS. A SWELL COULD POTENTIALLY BRING OCEAN SEAS CLOSE
TO 5 FT DURING SATURDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS LOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A RECENT FULL MOON...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 3/4 TO 1 1/2
FT ARE NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED
AT THE PEAK OF THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDES THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MINOR
BENCHMARKS COULD BRIEFLY BE TOUCHED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF
NASSAU COUNTY THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/DW
NEAR TERM...DS/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JC/DW
HYDROLOGY...JC/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KOKX 022342
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
742 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST ACROSS
THE AREA ON FRIDAY. A SECOND WEAK LOW WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH ON
INDEPENDENCE DAY. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST GENERALLY ON TRACK. THE ONLY CHANGES WERE TO REMOVE
MENTION OF THUNDER ACROSS THE INTERIOR AS THERE IS LITTLE TO NO
INSTABILITY. ALSO..HAVE ADDED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE SOUTHERN
ZONES OF NYC/NJ METRO AND SOUTHERN LONG ISLAND. SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST HAS DEVELOPED A FEW SHOWERS SW OF THE
REGION...AND THESE COULD MOVE IN AS THE SHORTWAVE NEARS THIS
EVENING. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS EXISTS FURTHER NORTH. ANY
SHOWERS WILL BE BRIEF AND ONLY PRODUCE LIGHT AMOUNTS.

OTHERWISE...THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EAST TO
END THE WEEK WITH THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF LOWS TO PASS SOUTH
TONIGHT ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT. CANOPY OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL RESIDES ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
NIGHT WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THE RAIN SHIELD WITH THE
LOW CONTINUES TO STAY SOUTH LI THIS EVENING...PERHAPS GRAZING THE
SOUTH FORK OF LI.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN THE INTERIOR...TO THE
LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE. THIS IS ACTUALLY SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SHORT WAVE RIDGING ON FRI WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO BUILD EAST THROUGH FRI NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT PIECE OF
SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE LATTER OF
WHICH WILL SEND A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES BY DAYBREAK SAT.

FRI INTO FRI NIGHT WILL BE DRY WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S...AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. THIS IS
AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM
THE SW FRI NIGHT.

THERE IS MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON FRI.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECAST FOR THE 4TH OF JULY IS TRICKY WITH MODELS IN DISAGREEMENT
REGARDING OUR CHANCES OF RAINFALL. FOR THE 12Z SUITE...NAM IS DRY
DURING THE DAY AND NIGHT...WITH GFS/ECMWF/CMC SHOWING SOME QPF
OUTPUT. MOST OF THE MODELS WOULD IMPLY THAT THE MORNING HOURS ARE
MORE LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY AND ANY RAINFALL WOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE SOUTH. STILL...WILL BE KEEPING
AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES FOR THE
MORNING. FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES
AND COULD TAP INTO ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM FOR MAINLY THE NW ZONES. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
SHOWER FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES DUE TO THE PROXIMITY TO THE OFFSHORE
LOW. IN ANY CASE...THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A WASHOUT...BUT THE
CHANCES OF A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY DOESN`T LOOK TOO HIGH AT THIS POINT.
WENT SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN A MAV/NAM MOS BLEND FOR HIGH TEMPS.

SUNDAY ON THE OTHER HAND LOOKS LIKE IT WILL FEATURE A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE...BUT THERE
COULD BE SOME CLOUD BUILDUP IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE EASTERN ZONES
AS THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS CYCLONIC. THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN AT LEAST
LOOKS TOO DRY FOR A MENTION OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 80S.

REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD PROBABLY REMAINS DRY FOR THE MOST PART
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. ECMWF REMAINS A QUICK OUTLIER WITH
BRINGING IN RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH STARTING LATE IN THE DAY
MONDAY. WILL GO WITH DRY WEATHER FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT LEAVE IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE GRIDS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHEN THE OTHER GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SOME
SHOWERS COULD OCCUR. HIGHS IN THE 80S THROUGH THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH
WITH THE CLOUD COVER...THURSDAY IS FORECAST TO BE ONLY AROUND 80.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE TERMINALS TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH. THE
HIGH SHIFTS TO OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

THE WIND WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. A LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPS
FRIDAY MORNING. SEA BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
TERMINALS DURING THE AFTERNOON...17Z THROUGH 21Z.


     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: A BRIEF SHOWER IS POSSIBLE THROUGH 0030Z WITH
VFR CONDITIONS. A SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND MAY BE AN HOUR OR TWO EARLIER THAN FORECAST. MODERATE
TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: A BRIEF SHOWER IS POSSIBLE THROUGH 0030Z WITH
VFR CONDITIONS. A SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MAY BE
AROUND AN HOUR EARLIER THAN FORECAST. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: A BRIEF SHOWER IS POSSIBLE THROUGH 00Z WITH
VFR CONDITIONS. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: A SEA BREEZE IS POSSIBLE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
AND MAY NOT MOVE THROUGH. POSSIBLE WIND REMAINS LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THROUGH THE FORECAST. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: A SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. POSSIBLE THE WIND BECOMES LIGHT AND VARIABLE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: A BRIEF SHOWER IS POSSIBLE THROUGH 01Z WITH
VFR CONDITIONS. A SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND MAY BE AN HOUR OR TWO EARLIER THAN FORECAST. MODERATE
TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.


.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW.
.SATURDAY...VFR...A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH FRI NIGHT AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES
SOUTH OF THE WATERS TONIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO NORTH ON
FRI.

WINDS AND SEAS LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE...RESULTING
IN LIGHT WINDS. A SWELL COULD POTENTIALLY BRING OCEAN SEAS CLOSE
TO 5 FT DURING SATURDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS LOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A RECENT FULL MOON...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 3/4 TO 1 1/2
FT ARE NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED
AT THE PEAK OF THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDES THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MINOR
BENCHMARKS COULD BRIEFLY BE TOUCHED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF
NASSAU COUNTY THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/DW
NEAR TERM...DS/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JC/DW
HYDROLOGY...JC/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KALY 022339
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
739 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY TO THE REGION. A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE COULD BRING AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ON
SATURDAY FOR AREAS MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.
DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 739 PM EDT...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION CONTINUES TO BUILD EASTWARD TONIGHT. AS THE HIGH
CONTINUES TO SHIFT CLOSER TO OUR REGION...CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT...BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY/MOSTLY CLEAR
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME THICKER HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IN PLACE FOR AREAS
SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY WILL DISSIPATE LATE TONIGHT.

TONIGHT WILL FEATURE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...ALLOWING
FOR A COOL NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

WINDS WILL TREND TOWARDS CALM OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FAVORED SHELTERED
VALLEYS AND LOCATIONS NEAR BODIES OF WATER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF A POPUP SHOWER/PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ON INDEPENDENCE
DAY/SATURDAY.

THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY RESULTING IN ANOTHER EXCELLENT
WEATHER DAY FEATURING DRY CONDITIONS AND HIGHS GENERALLY RANGING
FROM THE LOW 70S TO NEAR 80...WITH THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS IN THE
UPPER 60S AND A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY REACHING
INTO THE LOW 80S. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND 5 MPH.

THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST OF THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY...AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK
PIECE OF ENERGY IMPACT THE REGION FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. ANY
FORCING WITH THIS UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE LOOKS MARGINAL AT BEST
AND HAVE ONLY GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR A STRAY
SHOWER/PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. THIS UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER...WITH MOST AREAS PARTLY CLOUDY BUT STILL SEEING A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. WHILE THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME
WET WEATHER ON INDEPENDENCE DAY...IT APPEARS MOST LIKELY THAT IT
WILL BE DRY...ALTHOUGH AGAIN CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

ANY ONGOING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OVER IN TIME
FOR FIREWORKS SATURDAY NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPERATURES FALLING
INTO THE 60S ARE EXPECTED WITH EVENTUAL LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT
RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE REGION.

ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR
SUNDAY RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
70S TO LOW 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDING INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. MODELS INDICATING THE RIDGE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY PROVIDING SUNNY SKIES AND SEASONABLY
WARM TEMPERATURES. THE ECMWF IS SHOWING AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPING IN
THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...HEADING
TOWARDS OUR REGION MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THIS SOLUTION DOES NOT
AGREE WITH THE GFS/CMC WHICH BOTH KEEP THE STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE. SO
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION DRY CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT.

THE RIDGE THEN STARTS TO BREAK DOWN SOMEWHAT WITH UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS LOWERING SLIGHTLY FOR TUESDAY. WILL MENTION ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME DUE TO LACK OF ANY PROMINENT FORCING
MECHANISM. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL START TO RISE AS WELL...WITH
DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE 60S. COMBINED WITH TEMPS IN THE 80S IT
WILL START TO FEEL MUGGY AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF LOW HUMIDITY FOR
EARLY JULY.

THERE APPEARS TO BE A SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT POSSIBLY MOVE THROUGH...ALTHOUGH THIS
IS NOT CONSISTENT AMONG THE GUIDANCE. THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL BE AN IMPORTANT FACTOR IN DETERMINING THE TIMING/STRENGTH
OF THE NEXT POTENTIAL CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
ARRIVING. WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY...AS THIS IS WHEN IT
LOOKS LIKE THE RIDGE WILL COMPLETELY BREAK DOWN...ALLOWING FOR A
BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
BE NEAR NORMAL FROM MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL PROVIDE CLEARING
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT. DESPITE A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS
IN PLACE...SOME RADIATIONAL FOG FORMATION WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOME
SPOTS. CONFIDENCE FOR FOG IS LOW...SO WILL ONLY MENTION MVFR VSBYS
FOR NOW AT KGFL/KPSF FROM 08Z-11Z...WITH PATCHY FOG NEAR KALB DUE
TO POSSIBLE FOG FORMING ALONG THE MOHAWK RIVER. SUBSEQUENT TAF
ISSUANCE WILL MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE FOG.

OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH ONLY A FEW FAIR
WEATHER CU AROUND FOR FRIDAY.

WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS THROUGH FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY...

EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WILL
BE THE USUAL NEARLY FULL RECOVERY EACH OF THE NEXT SEVERAL NIGHTS
WITH LIGHT OR CALM WINDS...YIELDING TO THE FORMATION OF DEW. RH
VALUES WILL DROP EACH AFTERNOON INTO THE 30S IN THE VALLEYS/40S
HIGHER TERRAIN. SUNSHINE WILL PREVAIL ALTHOUGH WILL BE MIXED
WITH A GOOD DEAL OF AFTERNOON CLOUDINESS ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF ALBANY.

THE WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT MAINLY FROM A NORTH TO NORTHWEST
DIRECTION UNDER 10 MPH DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING PRIMARILY SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. BASIN-AVERAGED RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON
SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS. RIVER
LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IRL
NEAR TERM...IRL/JPV
SHORT TERM...IRL
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/IRL
HYDROLOGY...IRL




000
FXUS61 KALY 022339
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
739 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY TO THE REGION. A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE COULD BRING AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ON
SATURDAY FOR AREAS MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.
DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 739 PM EDT...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION CONTINUES TO BUILD EASTWARD TONIGHT. AS THE HIGH
CONTINUES TO SHIFT CLOSER TO OUR REGION...CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT...BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY/MOSTLY CLEAR
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME THICKER HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IN PLACE FOR AREAS
SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY WILL DISSIPATE LATE TONIGHT.

TONIGHT WILL FEATURE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...ALLOWING
FOR A COOL NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

WINDS WILL TREND TOWARDS CALM OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FAVORED SHELTERED
VALLEYS AND LOCATIONS NEAR BODIES OF WATER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF A POPUP SHOWER/PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ON INDEPENDENCE
DAY/SATURDAY.

THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY RESULTING IN ANOTHER EXCELLENT
WEATHER DAY FEATURING DRY CONDITIONS AND HIGHS GENERALLY RANGING
FROM THE LOW 70S TO NEAR 80...WITH THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS IN THE
UPPER 60S AND A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY REACHING
INTO THE LOW 80S. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND 5 MPH.

THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST OF THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY...AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK
PIECE OF ENERGY IMPACT THE REGION FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. ANY
FORCING WITH THIS UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE LOOKS MARGINAL AT BEST
AND HAVE ONLY GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR A STRAY
SHOWER/PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. THIS UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER...WITH MOST AREAS PARTLY CLOUDY BUT STILL SEEING A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. WHILE THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME
WET WEATHER ON INDEPENDENCE DAY...IT APPEARS MOST LIKELY THAT IT
WILL BE DRY...ALTHOUGH AGAIN CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

ANY ONGOING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OVER IN TIME
FOR FIREWORKS SATURDAY NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPERATURES FALLING
INTO THE 60S ARE EXPECTED WITH EVENTUAL LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT
RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE REGION.

ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR
SUNDAY RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
70S TO LOW 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDING INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. MODELS INDICATING THE RIDGE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY PROVIDING SUNNY SKIES AND SEASONABLY
WARM TEMPERATURES. THE ECMWF IS SHOWING AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPING IN
THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...HEADING
TOWARDS OUR REGION MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THIS SOLUTION DOES NOT
AGREE WITH THE GFS/CMC WHICH BOTH KEEP THE STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE. SO
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION DRY CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT.

THE RIDGE THEN STARTS TO BREAK DOWN SOMEWHAT WITH UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS LOWERING SLIGHTLY FOR TUESDAY. WILL MENTION ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME DUE TO LACK OF ANY PROMINENT FORCING
MECHANISM. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL START TO RISE AS WELL...WITH
DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE 60S. COMBINED WITH TEMPS IN THE 80S IT
WILL START TO FEEL MUGGY AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF LOW HUMIDITY FOR
EARLY JULY.

THERE APPEARS TO BE A SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT POSSIBLY MOVE THROUGH...ALTHOUGH THIS
IS NOT CONSISTENT AMONG THE GUIDANCE. THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL BE AN IMPORTANT FACTOR IN DETERMINING THE TIMING/STRENGTH
OF THE NEXT POTENTIAL CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
ARRIVING. WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY...AS THIS IS WHEN IT
LOOKS LIKE THE RIDGE WILL COMPLETELY BREAK DOWN...ALLOWING FOR A
BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
BE NEAR NORMAL FROM MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL PROVIDE CLEARING
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT. DESPITE A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS
IN PLACE...SOME RADIATIONAL FOG FORMATION WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOME
SPOTS. CONFIDENCE FOR FOG IS LOW...SO WILL ONLY MENTION MVFR VSBYS
FOR NOW AT KGFL/KPSF FROM 08Z-11Z...WITH PATCHY FOG NEAR KALB DUE
TO POSSIBLE FOG FORMING ALONG THE MOHAWK RIVER. SUBSEQUENT TAF
ISSUANCE WILL MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE FOG.

OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH ONLY A FEW FAIR
WEATHER CU AROUND FOR FRIDAY.

WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS THROUGH FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY...

EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WILL
BE THE USUAL NEARLY FULL RECOVERY EACH OF THE NEXT SEVERAL NIGHTS
WITH LIGHT OR CALM WINDS...YIELDING TO THE FORMATION OF DEW. RH
VALUES WILL DROP EACH AFTERNOON INTO THE 30S IN THE VALLEYS/40S
HIGHER TERRAIN. SUNSHINE WILL PREVAIL ALTHOUGH WILL BE MIXED
WITH A GOOD DEAL OF AFTERNOON CLOUDINESS ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF ALBANY.

THE WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT MAINLY FROM A NORTH TO NORTHWEST
DIRECTION UNDER 10 MPH DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING PRIMARILY SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. BASIN-AVERAGED RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON
SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS. RIVER
LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IRL
NEAR TERM...IRL/JPV
SHORT TERM...IRL
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/IRL
HYDROLOGY...IRL



000
FXUS61 KBOX 022307
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
707 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A COLD FRONT SHIFTS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. A MAINLY QUIET
AND DRY 4TH OF JULY HOLIDAY WEEKEND BENEATH HIGH PRESSURE IS
MAINTAINED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEREAFTER THE WEATHER TAKES A
TURN TOWARDS A WARM...MUGGY...WET-WEATHER PATTERN WITH CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY MIDWEEK POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO THE
FOLLOWING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

7 PM UPDATE...

POTENT WAVE OFF THE DELMARVA AND ANOTHER APPROACHING FROM THE N
WILL REFOCUS LIFT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE BENEATH THE RRQ OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL-JET. ALREADY SEEING SOME ACTIVITY GENERATING AROUND
NYC ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SWEEPING S AND E
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND IN ADDITION TO THE BIG SLUG OF RAIN S AND
OFFSHORE OF S NEW ENGLAND PRESENTLY.

ANTICIPATE WET-WEATHER ACTIVITY TO SKIRT THE S-COAST OF NEW
ENGLAND AS DRIER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE PUSH IN FROM THE N AND W.
HAVE GREATEST POPS OFFSHORE OF S NEW ENGLAND WITH ONLY IMPACTS
EXPECTED ACROSS NANTUCKET...PERHAPS S CAPE COD SHORES AND MARTHAS
VINEYARD...AS WE GO INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MUCH OF THE WET-
WEATHER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE EXITING THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT.

CLOUDS LIKELY TO LINGER LONGER. HAVE BUMPED UP MIN TEMPERATURES
ACCORDINGLY. LOWS COOLEST OVER NW MA AROUND THE LOW-50S...YET
WARMEST ALONG THE S/SE-COAST IN THE LOW-60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE.
EXPECT CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE
LIGHT...SO LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE DAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW SEA
BREEZES TO FORM ALONG THE COASTS LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
MIXED LAYER IS FORECAST TO REACH 850 MB WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS AT
THAT LEVEL AROUND 10C. MIXING THIS TO THE SURFACE SHOULD SUPPORT
MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S...CALL IT 75 TO 80. COOLER VALUES WHERE
THE SEA BREEZE TAKES HOLD.

FRIDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST BUT REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER NEW ENGLAND.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND FORMS ANOTHER
WAVE ALONG THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH. THIS SHOULD GENERATE ANOTHER
AREA OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THAT APPROACH FROM OUR SOUTH OVERNIGHT.
WE WILL BRING SOME INCREASE IN SKY COVER DURING THE NIGHT WITH THE
MOST COVER ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. BUT THE DRY AIR IN PLACE AND THE
FOCUS OF SUPPORTING LIFT TO OUR SOUTH SHOULD KEEP THE WEATHER DRY.
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 50S...MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE 50S AND
AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - POSSIBLE SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR THE 4TH OF JULY?
 - DRY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...PERHAPS WARMER
 - RETURN OF WARM...MUGGY...AND WET-WEATHER BY MIDWEEK
 - CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN

*/ DISCUSSION...

AN EBB AND FLOW PATTERN. SHOULD A H5 LOW ANOMALY MAINTAIN ACROSS THE
N ATLANTIC WITH H5 RIDGING IN AND AROUND THE VICINITY OF THE W CONUS
THEN H5 TROUGHING WOULD BE PREFERRED THROUGH THE C-CONUS ALONG THE E-
PERIPHERY OF WHICH THE NE-CONUS WOULD EXPERIENCE AN ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN WHILE WOBBLING BETWEEN AIRMASSES. NOTHING IS CERTAIN AS THE
ATMOSPHERIC IS CHAOTIC...BUT INTERPRETING ANOMALIES AS OF LATE WHILE
INTERROGATING ENSEMBLE DATA LEADS TO CONFIDENCE THAT WE WILL NOT BE
SEEING HEAT-WAVES NOR 100-DEGREE TEMPERATURES ANYTIME SOON. A SWAY
OF TEMPERATURES NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WITH EXCHANGING AIRMASSES...
GOING FROM COOL AND DRY TO WARM AND MUGGY...A PATTERN AS OF LATE
THAT IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE. IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF WE DRAW
PARALLELS TO THE WEAK EL-NINO SUMMER OF 2004 WITH THE C-CONUS HAVING
WELL BELOW-NORMAL SUMMER TEMPERATURES WITH THE NE-CONUS HOLDING
NEAR-NORMAL.

LETS KEEP IT SIMPLE AND STRAIGHT-FORWARD WITH THE ABOVE DISCUSSION
IN MIND. A CONSENSUS OF FORECAST GUIDANCE IS WARRANTED AS THERE IS
OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY MIDWEEK THERE ARE
SIGNALS OF DISCREPANCY AS FORECAST GUIDANCE HANDLES THE RETURN OF
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. BEST TO LOOK AT CIPS ANALOGS TO SEE IF THERE IS ANY-
THING WE SHOULD BE CONCERNED ABOUT ON THE HORIZON.

*/ DAILIES...

JULY 4TH WEEKEND:

18Z UPDATE...

THE 02.18Z GFS CONSIDERABLY OBLITERATES 4TH OF JULY FESTIVITIES
WITH A DECENT SLUG OF RAIN AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS
ACROSS S NEW ENGLAND. APPEARING AS AN OUTLIER AS OF PRESENT AND
WILL TREAT IT AS SO. NEVERTHELESS THE 02.12Z ECWMF ENSEMBLES HAVE
ROUGHLY A SPLIT OF 50 MEMBERS...HALF DRY AND THE OTHER HALF
SUGGESTING SOME SORT OF WET-WEATHER. 02.18Z NAM CONTINUES THE
FORECAST TREND OF WET-WEATHER OVER PA PERHAPS ADVECTING E/NE WITH
THE MEAN FLOW INTO S NEW ENGLAND BY WHICH TIME IT IS MAINLY MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS INTO AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR.

WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE-EYE ON THIS EVER CHANGING FORECAST AND
NOW A GROWING UNCERTAINTY THAT IT MAY NOT REMAIN DRY OVER S NEW
ENGLAND AFTER ALL.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY-CAPPING MECHANISM KEEPS US PERHAPS QUIET
AND DRY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD? YET THERE HAS BEEN AN INDICATION OF A
STOUT STRETCHED MID-LEVEL VORTEX THROUGH THE OVERALL TROUGH-PATTERN
FOR QUITE SOME TIME. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE RELATIVE STRENGTH OF
THE HIGH UP AGAINST THE FORCING MECHANISMS ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL
ENERGY ALOFT...WHETHER WE CAN GET SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY MAINLY PER
MID-LEVEL FORCING IN WHAT APPEARS TO BE A RATHER DRY ENVIRONMENT
WITH A MEASURE OF STABILITY. WILL KEEP WITH A MOSTLY-DRY FORECAST
FOR NOW BUT HOLDING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER S AND W PORTIONS OF S
NEW ENGLAND...WITH CHANCE POPS S OFFSHORE.

OTHERWISE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECKS ENCROACH FROM THE WEST. FLOW
LOOKS TO BE RATHER LIGHT...AND BENEATH HIGH PRESSURE MAY MAKE FOR
SOME SMOKEY FIREWORKS DISPLAYS. PERHAPS SOME FASTER FLOW MOVES IN BY
3Z AS THE 02.12Z NAM SUGGESTS BUT THINK ITS TOO ROBUST. WIND SPEEDS
THROUGH MIDNIGHT LOOK TO BE AROUND 5 MPH AND NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR AS
FROM WHAT DIRECTION. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT.

EARLY NEXT WEEK:

KEEPING IT DRY. HIGH PRESSURE SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION. CHILLY INTO
MONDAY MORNING BUT BEGIN TO SEE RETURN S-FLOW BY THE END OF THE DAY
GOING ON INTO TUESDAY. COULD SEE A WARMER-THAN-AVERAGE PATTERN AT
LEAST BY TUESDAY WITH H85 +14C AIR MOVING IN ALOFT. HIGHS AROUND THE
MID-80S WITH LOW-LYING INTERIOR RIVER VALLEYS INTO THE UPPER-80S.

MIDWEEK:

A RETURN OF WARM-MUGGY CONDITIONS AHEAD OF A SWEEPING SYNOPTIC LOW
DISTURBANCE FROM THE N. INCREASING INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE ALONG
AND AHEAD. CONFIDENCE TOWARDS CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
FROM THE CIPS ANALOG GUIDANCE...ANALOGS DERIVED FROM THE 0Z GEFS
HAVE A 60% CHANCE OF ABOVE-AVERAGE PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NE-CONUS...AND NATURALLY WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED ENVIRONMENT...THE
THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

SHOULD THE TROUGHING PATTERN PERSIST AS A CONSENSUS OF DETERMINISTIC
SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THEN WE COULD BE LOOKING AT ROUNDS OF WET-WEATHER
ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. LOW CONFIDENCE. NO
CERTAINTY ON OUTCOMES. WILL MAINTAIN SEASONABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH-
OUT THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

0Z UPDATE...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. LIGHT WINDS GRADUALLY TURNING E/SE. -RA FOR ACK AND POSSIBLE
IFR FOG TOWARDS MORNING.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING.

FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VFR. VRB WINDS WITH SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE COASTS. MORE PROMINENT S-
WINDS BY TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

7 PM UPDATE...

SEAS ALONG THE S-WATER HAVE DROPPED BELOW 5-FEET. WILL DROP THE
SMALL-CRAFT-ADVISORY ACCORDINGLY. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOME
NORTHWEST TO NORTH...BUT REMAIN WELL BELOW 20 KNOTS.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER NEW ENGLAND. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

VARIABLE WINDS THROUGHOUT WITH SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE COASTS WILL
MAKE FOR GOOD BOATING WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY. MORE PROMINENT S-WINDS
ARE ANTICIPATED BY TUESDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 KTS. WILL HOLD SEAS
BELOW 5-FEET DESPITE ANTICIPATED SWELL FROM W-E S-OFFSHORE STORM
SYSTEMS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WTB/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...WTB/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...WTB/SIPPRELL
MARINE...WTB/SIPPRELL



000
FXUS61 KBOX 022307
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
707 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A COLD FRONT SHIFTS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. A MAINLY QUIET
AND DRY 4TH OF JULY HOLIDAY WEEKEND BENEATH HIGH PRESSURE IS
MAINTAINED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEREAFTER THE WEATHER TAKES A
TURN TOWARDS A WARM...MUGGY...WET-WEATHER PATTERN WITH CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY MIDWEEK POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO THE
FOLLOWING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

7 PM UPDATE...

POTENT WAVE OFF THE DELMARVA AND ANOTHER APPROACHING FROM THE N
WILL REFOCUS LIFT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE BENEATH THE RRQ OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL-JET. ALREADY SEEING SOME ACTIVITY GENERATING AROUND
NYC ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SWEEPING S AND E
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND IN ADDITION TO THE BIG SLUG OF RAIN S AND
OFFSHORE OF S NEW ENGLAND PRESENTLY.

ANTICIPATE WET-WEATHER ACTIVITY TO SKIRT THE S-COAST OF NEW
ENGLAND AS DRIER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE PUSH IN FROM THE N AND W.
HAVE GREATEST POPS OFFSHORE OF S NEW ENGLAND WITH ONLY IMPACTS
EXPECTED ACROSS NANTUCKET...PERHAPS S CAPE COD SHORES AND MARTHAS
VINEYARD...AS WE GO INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MUCH OF THE WET-
WEATHER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE EXITING THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT.

CLOUDS LIKELY TO LINGER LONGER. HAVE BUMPED UP MIN TEMPERATURES
ACCORDINGLY. LOWS COOLEST OVER NW MA AROUND THE LOW-50S...YET
WARMEST ALONG THE S/SE-COAST IN THE LOW-60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE.
EXPECT CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE
LIGHT...SO LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE DAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW SEA
BREEZES TO FORM ALONG THE COASTS LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
MIXED LAYER IS FORECAST TO REACH 850 MB WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS AT
THAT LEVEL AROUND 10C. MIXING THIS TO THE SURFACE SHOULD SUPPORT
MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S...CALL IT 75 TO 80. COOLER VALUES WHERE
THE SEA BREEZE TAKES HOLD.

FRIDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST BUT REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER NEW ENGLAND.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND FORMS ANOTHER
WAVE ALONG THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH. THIS SHOULD GENERATE ANOTHER
AREA OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THAT APPROACH FROM OUR SOUTH OVERNIGHT.
WE WILL BRING SOME INCREASE IN SKY COVER DURING THE NIGHT WITH THE
MOST COVER ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. BUT THE DRY AIR IN PLACE AND THE
FOCUS OF SUPPORTING LIFT TO OUR SOUTH SHOULD KEEP THE WEATHER DRY.
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 50S...MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE 50S AND
AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - POSSIBLE SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR THE 4TH OF JULY?
 - DRY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...PERHAPS WARMER
 - RETURN OF WARM...MUGGY...AND WET-WEATHER BY MIDWEEK
 - CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN

*/ DISCUSSION...

AN EBB AND FLOW PATTERN. SHOULD A H5 LOW ANOMALY MAINTAIN ACROSS THE
N ATLANTIC WITH H5 RIDGING IN AND AROUND THE VICINITY OF THE W CONUS
THEN H5 TROUGHING WOULD BE PREFERRED THROUGH THE C-CONUS ALONG THE E-
PERIPHERY OF WHICH THE NE-CONUS WOULD EXPERIENCE AN ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN WHILE WOBBLING BETWEEN AIRMASSES. NOTHING IS CERTAIN AS THE
ATMOSPHERIC IS CHAOTIC...BUT INTERPRETING ANOMALIES AS OF LATE WHILE
INTERROGATING ENSEMBLE DATA LEADS TO CONFIDENCE THAT WE WILL NOT BE
SEEING HEAT-WAVES NOR 100-DEGREE TEMPERATURES ANYTIME SOON. A SWAY
OF TEMPERATURES NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WITH EXCHANGING AIRMASSES...
GOING FROM COOL AND DRY TO WARM AND MUGGY...A PATTERN AS OF LATE
THAT IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE. IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF WE DRAW
PARALLELS TO THE WEAK EL-NINO SUMMER OF 2004 WITH THE C-CONUS HAVING
WELL BELOW-NORMAL SUMMER TEMPERATURES WITH THE NE-CONUS HOLDING
NEAR-NORMAL.

LETS KEEP IT SIMPLE AND STRAIGHT-FORWARD WITH THE ABOVE DISCUSSION
IN MIND. A CONSENSUS OF FORECAST GUIDANCE IS WARRANTED AS THERE IS
OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY MIDWEEK THERE ARE
SIGNALS OF DISCREPANCY AS FORECAST GUIDANCE HANDLES THE RETURN OF
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. BEST TO LOOK AT CIPS ANALOGS TO SEE IF THERE IS ANY-
THING WE SHOULD BE CONCERNED ABOUT ON THE HORIZON.

*/ DAILIES...

JULY 4TH WEEKEND:

18Z UPDATE...

THE 02.18Z GFS CONSIDERABLY OBLITERATES 4TH OF JULY FESTIVITIES
WITH A DECENT SLUG OF RAIN AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS
ACROSS S NEW ENGLAND. APPEARING AS AN OUTLIER AS OF PRESENT AND
WILL TREAT IT AS SO. NEVERTHELESS THE 02.12Z ECWMF ENSEMBLES HAVE
ROUGHLY A SPLIT OF 50 MEMBERS...HALF DRY AND THE OTHER HALF
SUGGESTING SOME SORT OF WET-WEATHER. 02.18Z NAM CONTINUES THE
FORECAST TREND OF WET-WEATHER OVER PA PERHAPS ADVECTING E/NE WITH
THE MEAN FLOW INTO S NEW ENGLAND BY WHICH TIME IT IS MAINLY MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS INTO AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR.

WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE-EYE ON THIS EVER CHANGING FORECAST AND
NOW A GROWING UNCERTAINTY THAT IT MAY NOT REMAIN DRY OVER S NEW
ENGLAND AFTER ALL.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY-CAPPING MECHANISM KEEPS US PERHAPS QUIET
AND DRY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD? YET THERE HAS BEEN AN INDICATION OF A
STOUT STRETCHED MID-LEVEL VORTEX THROUGH THE OVERALL TROUGH-PATTERN
FOR QUITE SOME TIME. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE RELATIVE STRENGTH OF
THE HIGH UP AGAINST THE FORCING MECHANISMS ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL
ENERGY ALOFT...WHETHER WE CAN GET SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY MAINLY PER
MID-LEVEL FORCING IN WHAT APPEARS TO BE A RATHER DRY ENVIRONMENT
WITH A MEASURE OF STABILITY. WILL KEEP WITH A MOSTLY-DRY FORECAST
FOR NOW BUT HOLDING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER S AND W PORTIONS OF S
NEW ENGLAND...WITH CHANCE POPS S OFFSHORE.

OTHERWISE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECKS ENCROACH FROM THE WEST. FLOW
LOOKS TO BE RATHER LIGHT...AND BENEATH HIGH PRESSURE MAY MAKE FOR
SOME SMOKEY FIREWORKS DISPLAYS. PERHAPS SOME FASTER FLOW MOVES IN BY
3Z AS THE 02.12Z NAM SUGGESTS BUT THINK ITS TOO ROBUST. WIND SPEEDS
THROUGH MIDNIGHT LOOK TO BE AROUND 5 MPH AND NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR AS
FROM WHAT DIRECTION. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT.

EARLY NEXT WEEK:

KEEPING IT DRY. HIGH PRESSURE SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION. CHILLY INTO
MONDAY MORNING BUT BEGIN TO SEE RETURN S-FLOW BY THE END OF THE DAY
GOING ON INTO TUESDAY. COULD SEE A WARMER-THAN-AVERAGE PATTERN AT
LEAST BY TUESDAY WITH H85 +14C AIR MOVING IN ALOFT. HIGHS AROUND THE
MID-80S WITH LOW-LYING INTERIOR RIVER VALLEYS INTO THE UPPER-80S.

MIDWEEK:

A RETURN OF WARM-MUGGY CONDITIONS AHEAD OF A SWEEPING SYNOPTIC LOW
DISTURBANCE FROM THE N. INCREASING INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE ALONG
AND AHEAD. CONFIDENCE TOWARDS CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
FROM THE CIPS ANALOG GUIDANCE...ANALOGS DERIVED FROM THE 0Z GEFS
HAVE A 60% CHANCE OF ABOVE-AVERAGE PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NE-CONUS...AND NATURALLY WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED ENVIRONMENT...THE
THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

SHOULD THE TROUGHING PATTERN PERSIST AS A CONSENSUS OF DETERMINISTIC
SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THEN WE COULD BE LOOKING AT ROUNDS OF WET-WEATHER
ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. LOW CONFIDENCE. NO
CERTAINTY ON OUTCOMES. WILL MAINTAIN SEASONABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH-
OUT THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

0Z UPDATE...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. LIGHT WINDS GRADUALLY TURNING E/SE. -RA FOR ACK AND POSSIBLE
IFR FOG TOWARDS MORNING.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING.

FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VFR. VRB WINDS WITH SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE COASTS. MORE PROMINENT S-
WINDS BY TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

7 PM UPDATE...

SEAS ALONG THE S-WATER HAVE DROPPED BELOW 5-FEET. WILL DROP THE
SMALL-CRAFT-ADVISORY ACCORDINGLY. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOME
NORTHWEST TO NORTH...BUT REMAIN WELL BELOW 20 KNOTS.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER NEW ENGLAND. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

VARIABLE WINDS THROUGHOUT WITH SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE COASTS WILL
MAKE FOR GOOD BOATING WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY. MORE PROMINENT S-WINDS
ARE ANTICIPATED BY TUESDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 KTS. WILL HOLD SEAS
BELOW 5-FEET DESPITE ANTICIPATED SWELL FROM W-E S-OFFSHORE STORM
SYSTEMS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WTB/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...WTB/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...WTB/SIPPRELL
MARINE...WTB/SIPPRELL



000
FXUS61 KBOX 022307
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
707 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A COLD FRONT SHIFTS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. A MAINLY QUIET
AND DRY 4TH OF JULY HOLIDAY WEEKEND BENEATH HIGH PRESSURE IS
MAINTAINED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEREAFTER THE WEATHER TAKES A
TURN TOWARDS A WARM...MUGGY...WET-WEATHER PATTERN WITH CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY MIDWEEK POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO THE
FOLLOWING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

7 PM UPDATE...

POTENT WAVE OFF THE DELMARVA AND ANOTHER APPROACHING FROM THE N
WILL REFOCUS LIFT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE BENEATH THE RRQ OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL-JET. ALREADY SEEING SOME ACTIVITY GENERATING AROUND
NYC ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SWEEPING S AND E
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND IN ADDITION TO THE BIG SLUG OF RAIN S AND
OFFSHORE OF S NEW ENGLAND PRESENTLY.

ANTICIPATE WET-WEATHER ACTIVITY TO SKIRT THE S-COAST OF NEW
ENGLAND AS DRIER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE PUSH IN FROM THE N AND W.
HAVE GREATEST POPS OFFSHORE OF S NEW ENGLAND WITH ONLY IMPACTS
EXPECTED ACROSS NANTUCKET...PERHAPS S CAPE COD SHORES AND MARTHAS
VINEYARD...AS WE GO INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MUCH OF THE WET-
WEATHER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE EXITING THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT.

CLOUDS LIKELY TO LINGER LONGER. HAVE BUMPED UP MIN TEMPERATURES
ACCORDINGLY. LOWS COOLEST OVER NW MA AROUND THE LOW-50S...YET
WARMEST ALONG THE S/SE-COAST IN THE LOW-60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE.
EXPECT CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE
LIGHT...SO LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE DAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW SEA
BREEZES TO FORM ALONG THE COASTS LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
MIXED LAYER IS FORECAST TO REACH 850 MB WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS AT
THAT LEVEL AROUND 10C. MIXING THIS TO THE SURFACE SHOULD SUPPORT
MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S...CALL IT 75 TO 80. COOLER VALUES WHERE
THE SEA BREEZE TAKES HOLD.

FRIDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST BUT REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER NEW ENGLAND.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND FORMS ANOTHER
WAVE ALONG THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH. THIS SHOULD GENERATE ANOTHER
AREA OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THAT APPROACH FROM OUR SOUTH OVERNIGHT.
WE WILL BRING SOME INCREASE IN SKY COVER DURING THE NIGHT WITH THE
MOST COVER ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. BUT THE DRY AIR IN PLACE AND THE
FOCUS OF SUPPORTING LIFT TO OUR SOUTH SHOULD KEEP THE WEATHER DRY.
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 50S...MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE 50S AND
AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - POSSIBLE SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR THE 4TH OF JULY?
 - DRY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...PERHAPS WARMER
 - RETURN OF WARM...MUGGY...AND WET-WEATHER BY MIDWEEK
 - CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN

*/ DISCUSSION...

AN EBB AND FLOW PATTERN. SHOULD A H5 LOW ANOMALY MAINTAIN ACROSS THE
N ATLANTIC WITH H5 RIDGING IN AND AROUND THE VICINITY OF THE W CONUS
THEN H5 TROUGHING WOULD BE PREFERRED THROUGH THE C-CONUS ALONG THE E-
PERIPHERY OF WHICH THE NE-CONUS WOULD EXPERIENCE AN ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN WHILE WOBBLING BETWEEN AIRMASSES. NOTHING IS CERTAIN AS THE
ATMOSPHERIC IS CHAOTIC...BUT INTERPRETING ANOMALIES AS OF LATE WHILE
INTERROGATING ENSEMBLE DATA LEADS TO CONFIDENCE THAT WE WILL NOT BE
SEEING HEAT-WAVES NOR 100-DEGREE TEMPERATURES ANYTIME SOON. A SWAY
OF TEMPERATURES NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WITH EXCHANGING AIRMASSES...
GOING FROM COOL AND DRY TO WARM AND MUGGY...A PATTERN AS OF LATE
THAT IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE. IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF WE DRAW
PARALLELS TO THE WEAK EL-NINO SUMMER OF 2004 WITH THE C-CONUS HAVING
WELL BELOW-NORMAL SUMMER TEMPERATURES WITH THE NE-CONUS HOLDING
NEAR-NORMAL.

LETS KEEP IT SIMPLE AND STRAIGHT-FORWARD WITH THE ABOVE DISCUSSION
IN MIND. A CONSENSUS OF FORECAST GUIDANCE IS WARRANTED AS THERE IS
OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY MIDWEEK THERE ARE
SIGNALS OF DISCREPANCY AS FORECAST GUIDANCE HANDLES THE RETURN OF
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. BEST TO LOOK AT CIPS ANALOGS TO SEE IF THERE IS ANY-
THING WE SHOULD BE CONCERNED ABOUT ON THE HORIZON.

*/ DAILIES...

JULY 4TH WEEKEND:

18Z UPDATE...

THE 02.18Z GFS CONSIDERABLY OBLITERATES 4TH OF JULY FESTIVITIES
WITH A DECENT SLUG OF RAIN AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS
ACROSS S NEW ENGLAND. APPEARING AS AN OUTLIER AS OF PRESENT AND
WILL TREAT IT AS SO. NEVERTHELESS THE 02.12Z ECWMF ENSEMBLES HAVE
ROUGHLY A SPLIT OF 50 MEMBERS...HALF DRY AND THE OTHER HALF
SUGGESTING SOME SORT OF WET-WEATHER. 02.18Z NAM CONTINUES THE
FORECAST TREND OF WET-WEATHER OVER PA PERHAPS ADVECTING E/NE WITH
THE MEAN FLOW INTO S NEW ENGLAND BY WHICH TIME IT IS MAINLY MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS INTO AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR.

WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE-EYE ON THIS EVER CHANGING FORECAST AND
NOW A GROWING UNCERTAINTY THAT IT MAY NOT REMAIN DRY OVER S NEW
ENGLAND AFTER ALL.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY-CAPPING MECHANISM KEEPS US PERHAPS QUIET
AND DRY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD? YET THERE HAS BEEN AN INDICATION OF A
STOUT STRETCHED MID-LEVEL VORTEX THROUGH THE OVERALL TROUGH-PATTERN
FOR QUITE SOME TIME. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE RELATIVE STRENGTH OF
THE HIGH UP AGAINST THE FORCING MECHANISMS ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL
ENERGY ALOFT...WHETHER WE CAN GET SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY MAINLY PER
MID-LEVEL FORCING IN WHAT APPEARS TO BE A RATHER DRY ENVIRONMENT
WITH A MEASURE OF STABILITY. WILL KEEP WITH A MOSTLY-DRY FORECAST
FOR NOW BUT HOLDING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER S AND W PORTIONS OF S
NEW ENGLAND...WITH CHANCE POPS S OFFSHORE.

OTHERWISE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECKS ENCROACH FROM THE WEST. FLOW
LOOKS TO BE RATHER LIGHT...AND BENEATH HIGH PRESSURE MAY MAKE FOR
SOME SMOKEY FIREWORKS DISPLAYS. PERHAPS SOME FASTER FLOW MOVES IN BY
3Z AS THE 02.12Z NAM SUGGESTS BUT THINK ITS TOO ROBUST. WIND SPEEDS
THROUGH MIDNIGHT LOOK TO BE AROUND 5 MPH AND NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR AS
FROM WHAT DIRECTION. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT.

EARLY NEXT WEEK:

KEEPING IT DRY. HIGH PRESSURE SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION. CHILLY INTO
MONDAY MORNING BUT BEGIN TO SEE RETURN S-FLOW BY THE END OF THE DAY
GOING ON INTO TUESDAY. COULD SEE A WARMER-THAN-AVERAGE PATTERN AT
LEAST BY TUESDAY WITH H85 +14C AIR MOVING IN ALOFT. HIGHS AROUND THE
MID-80S WITH LOW-LYING INTERIOR RIVER VALLEYS INTO THE UPPER-80S.

MIDWEEK:

A RETURN OF WARM-MUGGY CONDITIONS AHEAD OF A SWEEPING SYNOPTIC LOW
DISTURBANCE FROM THE N. INCREASING INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE ALONG
AND AHEAD. CONFIDENCE TOWARDS CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
FROM THE CIPS ANALOG GUIDANCE...ANALOGS DERIVED FROM THE 0Z GEFS
HAVE A 60% CHANCE OF ABOVE-AVERAGE PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NE-CONUS...AND NATURALLY WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED ENVIRONMENT...THE
THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

SHOULD THE TROUGHING PATTERN PERSIST AS A CONSENSUS OF DETERMINISTIC
SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THEN WE COULD BE LOOKING AT ROUNDS OF WET-WEATHER
ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. LOW CONFIDENCE. NO
CERTAINTY ON OUTCOMES. WILL MAINTAIN SEASONABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH-
OUT THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

0Z UPDATE...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. LIGHT WINDS GRADUALLY TURNING E/SE. -RA FOR ACK AND POSSIBLE
IFR FOG TOWARDS MORNING.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING.

FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VFR. VRB WINDS WITH SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE COASTS. MORE PROMINENT S-
WINDS BY TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

7 PM UPDATE...

SEAS ALONG THE S-WATER HAVE DROPPED BELOW 5-FEET. WILL DROP THE
SMALL-CRAFT-ADVISORY ACCORDINGLY. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOME
NORTHWEST TO NORTH...BUT REMAIN WELL BELOW 20 KNOTS.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER NEW ENGLAND. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

VARIABLE WINDS THROUGHOUT WITH SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE COASTS WILL
MAKE FOR GOOD BOATING WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY. MORE PROMINENT S-WINDS
ARE ANTICIPATED BY TUESDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 KTS. WILL HOLD SEAS
BELOW 5-FEET DESPITE ANTICIPATED SWELL FROM W-E S-OFFSHORE STORM
SYSTEMS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WTB/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...WTB/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...WTB/SIPPRELL
MARINE...WTB/SIPPRELL




000
FXUS61 KOKX 022229
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
629 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST ACROSS
THE AREA ON FRIDAY. A SECOND WEAK LOW WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH ON
INDEPENDENCE DAY. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST GENERALLY ON TRACK. THE ONLY CHANGES WETR TO REMOVE
MENTION OF THUNDER ACROSS THE INTERIOR AS THERE IS LITTLE TO NO
INSTABILITY. ALSO..HAVE EXPANED THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO
INCLUDE THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST HAS DEVELOPED A FEW SHOWERS SW OF THE REGION...AND
THESE COULD MOVE IN AS THE SHORTWAVE NEARS THIS EVENING.

OTHERWISE...THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EAST TO
END THE WEEK WITH THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF LOWS TO PASS SOUTH
TONIGHT ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT. CANOPY OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL RESIDES ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
NIGHT WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THE RAIN SHIELD WITH THE
LOW CONTINUES TO STAY SOUTH LI THIS EVENING...PERHAPS GRAZING THE
SOUTH FORK OF LI.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN THE INTERIOR...TO THE
LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE. THIS IS ACTUALLY SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SHORT WAVE RIDGING ON FRI WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO BUILD EAST THROUGH FRI NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT PIECE OF
SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE LATTER OF
WHICH WILL SEND A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES BY DAYBREAK SAT.

FRI INTO FRI NIGHT WILL BE DRY WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S...AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. THIS IS
AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM
THE SW FRI NIGHT.

THERE IS MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON FRI.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECAST FOR THE 4TH OF JULY IS TRICKY WITH MODELS IN DISAGREEMENT
REGARDING OUR CHANCES OF RAINFALL. FOR THE 12Z SUITE...NAM IS DRY
DURING THE DAY AND NIGHT...WITH GFS/ECMWF/CMC SHOWING SOME QPF
OUTPUT. MOST OF THE MODELS WOULD IMPLY THAT THE MORNING HOURS ARE
MORE LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY AND ANY RAINFALL WOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE SOUTH. STILL...WILL BE KEEPING
AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES FOR THE
MORNING. FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES
AND COULD TAP INTO ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM FOR MAINLY THE NW ZONES. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
SHOWER FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES DUE TO THE PROXIMITY TO THE OFFSHORE
LOW. IN ANY CASE...THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A WASHOUT...BUT THE
CHANCES OF A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY DOESN`T LOOK TOO HIGH AT THIS POINT.
WENT SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN A MAV/NAM MOS BLEND FOR HIGH TEMPS.

SUNDAY ON THE OTHER HAND LOOKS LIKE IT WILL FEATURE A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE...BUT THERE
COULD BE SOME CLOUD BUILDUP IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE EASTERN ZONES
AS THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS CYCLONIC. THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN AT LEAST
LOOKS TOO DRY FOR A MENTION OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 80S.

REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD PROBABLY REMAINS DRY FOR THE MOST PART
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. ECMWF REMAINS A QUICK OUTLIER WITH
BRINGING IN RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH STARTING LATE IN THE DAY
MONDAY. WILL GO WITH DRY WEATHER FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT LEAVE IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE GRIDS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHEN THE OTHER GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SOME
SHOWERS COULD OCCUR. HIGHS IN THE 80S THROUGH THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH
WITH THE CLOUD COVER...THURSDAY IS FORECAST TO BE ONLY AROUND 80.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTH...AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
PASS TO THE SOUTH INTO FRIDAY.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SEABREEZE AT ALL TERMINALS BY 21Z...EXCEPT AT KSWF WHERE FLOW WILL
REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WINDS AGAIN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THROUGHOUT EARLY THIS EVENING. NNE THEN NE WINDS UNDER 10 KT DEVELOP
AT KJFK/KLGA/KEWR/KBDR/KISP/KGON EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SEABREEZE
SHOULD AGAIN DEVELOP AT CT TERMINALS/KJFK LATE FRIDAY MORNING- EARLY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CHANCE OF OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 15 KT
WITH SEABREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. LESS THAN A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM THROUGH 00Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: LESS THAN A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM THROUGH 00Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
THROUGH 00Z.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SEABREEZE MAY BE +/- 1 HOUR. 10
PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM THROUGH 00Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SEABREEZE MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS. 10
PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM THROUGH 00Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: LESS THAN A 10 PERCENT OR LESS CHANCE OF
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM THROUGH 00Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...VFR. SEABREEZE LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON.
.SATURDAY...MOST LIKELY VFR...WITH A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN WITH MVFR OR
LOWER CONDITIONS.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.TUESDAY...MOST LIKELY VFR...WITH VERY LOW CHANCE MVFR OR LOWER.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH FRI NIGHT AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES
SOUTH OF THE WATERS TONIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO NORTH ON
FRI.

WINDS AND SEAS LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE...RESULTING
IN LIGHT WINDS. A SWELL COULD POTENTIALLY BRING OCEAN SEAS CLOSE
TO 5 FT DURING SATURDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS LOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A RECENT FULL MOON...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 3/4 TO 1 1/2
FT ARE NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED
AT THE PEAK OF THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDES THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MINOR
BENCHMARKS COULD BRIEFLY BE TOUCHED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF
NASSAU COUNTY THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/DW
NEAR TERM...DS/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...JC/DW
HYDROLOGY...JC/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KOKX 022229
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
629 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST ACROSS
THE AREA ON FRIDAY. A SECOND WEAK LOW WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH ON
INDEPENDENCE DAY. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST GENERALLY ON TRACK. THE ONLY CHANGES WETR TO REMOVE
MENTION OF THUNDER ACROSS THE INTERIOR AS THERE IS LITTLE TO NO
INSTABILITY. ALSO..HAVE EXPANED THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO
INCLUDE THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST HAS DEVELOPED A FEW SHOWERS SW OF THE REGION...AND
THESE COULD MOVE IN AS THE SHORTWAVE NEARS THIS EVENING.

OTHERWISE...THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EAST TO
END THE WEEK WITH THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF LOWS TO PASS SOUTH
TONIGHT ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT. CANOPY OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL RESIDES ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
NIGHT WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THE RAIN SHIELD WITH THE
LOW CONTINUES TO STAY SOUTH LI THIS EVENING...PERHAPS GRAZING THE
SOUTH FORK OF LI.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN THE INTERIOR...TO THE
LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE. THIS IS ACTUALLY SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SHORT WAVE RIDGING ON FRI WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO BUILD EAST THROUGH FRI NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT PIECE OF
SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE LATTER OF
WHICH WILL SEND A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES BY DAYBREAK SAT.

FRI INTO FRI NIGHT WILL BE DRY WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S...AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. THIS IS
AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM
THE SW FRI NIGHT.

THERE IS MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON FRI.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECAST FOR THE 4TH OF JULY IS TRICKY WITH MODELS IN DISAGREEMENT
REGARDING OUR CHANCES OF RAINFALL. FOR THE 12Z SUITE...NAM IS DRY
DURING THE DAY AND NIGHT...WITH GFS/ECMWF/CMC SHOWING SOME QPF
OUTPUT. MOST OF THE MODELS WOULD IMPLY THAT THE MORNING HOURS ARE
MORE LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY AND ANY RAINFALL WOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE SOUTH. STILL...WILL BE KEEPING
AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES FOR THE
MORNING. FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES
AND COULD TAP INTO ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM FOR MAINLY THE NW ZONES. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
SHOWER FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES DUE TO THE PROXIMITY TO THE OFFSHORE
LOW. IN ANY CASE...THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A WASHOUT...BUT THE
CHANCES OF A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY DOESN`T LOOK TOO HIGH AT THIS POINT.
WENT SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN A MAV/NAM MOS BLEND FOR HIGH TEMPS.

SUNDAY ON THE OTHER HAND LOOKS LIKE IT WILL FEATURE A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE...BUT THERE
COULD BE SOME CLOUD BUILDUP IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE EASTERN ZONES
AS THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS CYCLONIC. THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN AT LEAST
LOOKS TOO DRY FOR A MENTION OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 80S.

REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD PROBABLY REMAINS DRY FOR THE MOST PART
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. ECMWF REMAINS A QUICK OUTLIER WITH
BRINGING IN RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH STARTING LATE IN THE DAY
MONDAY. WILL GO WITH DRY WEATHER FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT LEAVE IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE GRIDS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHEN THE OTHER GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SOME
SHOWERS COULD OCCUR. HIGHS IN THE 80S THROUGH THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH
WITH THE CLOUD COVER...THURSDAY IS FORECAST TO BE ONLY AROUND 80.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTH...AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
PASS TO THE SOUTH INTO FRIDAY.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SEABREEZE AT ALL TERMINALS BY 21Z...EXCEPT AT KSWF WHERE FLOW WILL
REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WINDS AGAIN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THROUGHOUT EARLY THIS EVENING. NNE THEN NE WINDS UNDER 10 KT DEVELOP
AT KJFK/KLGA/KEWR/KBDR/KISP/KGON EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SEABREEZE
SHOULD AGAIN DEVELOP AT CT TERMINALS/KJFK LATE FRIDAY MORNING- EARLY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CHANCE OF OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 15 KT
WITH SEABREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. LESS THAN A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM THROUGH 00Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: LESS THAN A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM THROUGH 00Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
THROUGH 00Z.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SEABREEZE MAY BE +/- 1 HOUR. 10
PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM THROUGH 00Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SEABREEZE MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS. 10
PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM THROUGH 00Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: LESS THAN A 10 PERCENT OR LESS CHANCE OF
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM THROUGH 00Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...VFR. SEABREEZE LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON.
.SATURDAY...MOST LIKELY VFR...WITH A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN WITH MVFR OR
LOWER CONDITIONS.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.TUESDAY...MOST LIKELY VFR...WITH VERY LOW CHANCE MVFR OR LOWER.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH FRI NIGHT AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES
SOUTH OF THE WATERS TONIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO NORTH ON
FRI.

WINDS AND SEAS LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE...RESULTING
IN LIGHT WINDS. A SWELL COULD POTENTIALLY BRING OCEAN SEAS CLOSE
TO 5 FT DURING SATURDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS LOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A RECENT FULL MOON...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 3/4 TO 1 1/2
FT ARE NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED
AT THE PEAK OF THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDES THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MINOR
BENCHMARKS COULD BRIEFLY BE TOUCHED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF
NASSAU COUNTY THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/DW
NEAR TERM...DS/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...JC/DW
HYDROLOGY...JC/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KALY 022041
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
441 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY TO THE REGION. A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE COULD BRING AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ON
SATURDAY FOR AREAS MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.
DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 435 PM EDT...A PLEASANT EARLY JULY AFTERNOON CONTINUES
ACROSS THE REGION WITH COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY. HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION CONTINUES TO
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. AS THE HIGH
CONTINUES TO SHIFT CLOSER TO THE REGION...CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE BY THE EVENING HOURS...BECOMING MOSTLY
SUNNY/MOSTLY CLEAR BY SUNSET.

THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...EASTERN CATSKILLS...BERKSHIRES AND NORTHWEST CONNECTICUT
WHERE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO THROUGHOUT THE EVENING
HOURS AS MID-LEVEL MOISTURE SPILLS NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE MID- ATLANTIC REGION. HAVE REMOVED
MENTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM THE FORECAST WITH DRY CONDITIONS
NOW EXPECTED FOR THE ENTIRE REGION THIS AFTERNOON DESPITE A COLD
POOL ASSOCIATED WITH THE BASE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST/NORTHWEST
GENERALLY 5-15 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH ACROSS THE MOHAWK
VALLEY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON HAVE TOPPED OUT FROM THE UPPER
60S TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE REGION.

TONIGHT WILL FEATURE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS...ALLOWING FOR A COOL NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. LOW
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S
TO MID 50S.

WINDS WILL TREND TOWARDS CALM OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN RIVER VALLEY
AREAS...THE LAKE GEORGE/GLENS FALLS REGION...AND FAVORED AREAS IN
SOUTHERN VERMONT AND THE BERKSHIRES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF A POPUP SHOWER/PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ON INDEPENDENCE
DAY/SATURDAY.

THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY RESULTING IN ANOTHER EXCELLENT
WEATHER DAY FEATURING DRY CONDITIONS AND HIGHS GENERALLY RANGING
FROM THE LOW 70S TO NEAR 80...WITH THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS IN THE
UPPER 60S AND A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY REACHING
INTO THE LOW 80S. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND 5 MPH.

THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST OF THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY...AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK
PIECE OF ENERGY IMPACT THE REGION FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. ANY
FORCING WITH THIS UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE LOOKS MARGINAL AT BEST
AND HAVE ONLY GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR A STRAY
SHOWER/PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. THIS UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER...WITH MOST AREAS PARTLY CLOUDY BUT STILL SEEING A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. WHILE THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME
WET WEATHER ON INDEPENDENCE DAY...IT APPEARS MOST LIKELY THAT IT
WILL BE DRY...ALTHOUGH AGAIN CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

ANY ONGOING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OVER IN TIME
FOR FIREWORKS SATURDAY NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPERATURES FALLING
INTO THE 60S ARE EXPECTED WITH EVENTUAL LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT
RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE REGION.

ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR
SUNDAY RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
70S TO LOW 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDING INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. MODELS INDICATING THE RIDGE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY PROVIDING SUNNY SKIES AND SEASONABLY
WARM TEMPERATURES. THE ECMWF IS SHOWING AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPING IN
THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...HEADING
TOWARDS OUR REGION MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THIS SOLUTION DOES NOT
AGREE WITH THE GFS/CMC WHICH BOTH KEEP THE STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE. SO
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION DRY CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT.

THE RIDGE THEN STARTS TO BREAK DOWN SOMEWHAT WITH UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS LOWERING SLIGHTLY FOR TUESDAY. WILL MENTION ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME DUE TO LACK OF ANY PROMINENT FORCING
MECHANISM. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL START TO RISE AS WELL...WITH
DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE 60S. COMBINED WITH TEMPS IN THE 80S IT
WILL START TO FEEL MUGGY AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF LOW HUMIDITY FOR
EARLY JULY.

THERE APPEARS TO BE A SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT POSSIBLY MOVE THROUGH...ALTHOUGH THIS
IS NOT CONSISTENT AMONG THE GUIDANCE. THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL BE AN IMPORTANT FACTOR IN DETERMINING THE TIMING/STRENGTH
OF THE NEXT POTENTIAL CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
ARRIVING. WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY...AS THIS IS WHEN IT
LOOKS LIKE THE RIDGE WILL COMPLETELY BREAK DOWN...ALLOWING FOR A
BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
BE NEAR NORMAL FROM MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...

A VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE HAS RESULTED IN SCT-BKN CU BASES THIS
AFTERNOON...ABOVE 3000 FEET (THOUGH PRETTY CLOSE TO THAT THRESHOLD
AT KPSF). THERE COULD BE A SPRINKLE ESPECIALLY AT KPSF...BUT NO
IMPACT EXPECTED.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NW TO N 5-10KTS THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ON BY TONIGHT AND WE LOOSE THE SURFACE
HEATING. THAT WILL LEAVE US WITH A MAINLY CLEAR SKY AND ANY WIND
WILL BECOME LIGHT OR CALM.

THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SOME RADIATIONAL FOG TO DEVELOP. IT
APPEARS THE "CROSSOVER" TEMPERATURE WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S. IT
LOOKS AS IF ONLY KGFL WILL DIP MUCH BELOW 50 TONIGHT SO WE DID
CONTINUE THE IDEA OF IFR FOG FORMING AT THAT STATION AFTER
08Z...LASTING UNTIL 11Z. AT KPSF...OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO BE
AROUND 50...SO WE PLACED MVFR FOG AT THAT SITE BETWEEN 08Z-11Z.

THE OTHER TWO TAFS LOOK TO REMAIN JUST ABOVE 50 OVERNIGHT SO FOR
NOW...JUST USED SHALLOW FOG (MIFG) AT BOTH THESE TAF SITES BETWEEN
08Z-11Z.

AFTER 11Z...WE WILL HAVE A REALLY NICE AVIATION DAY FOR FLYING.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY...A LIGHT
NORTH WIND AROUND 5KTS AND FEW-SCT CU DEVELOPING 4000-5000 FEET.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY...

EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WILL
BE THE USUAL NEARLY FULL RECOVERY EACH OF THE NEXT SEVERAL NIGHTS
WITH LIGHT OR CALM WINDS...YIELDING TO THE FORMATION OF DEW. RH
VALUES WILL DROP EACH AFTERNOON INTO THE 30S IN THE VALLEYS/40S
HIGHER TERRAIN. SUNSHINE WILL PREVAIL ALTHOUGH WILL BE MIXED
WITH A GOOD DEAL OF AFTERNOON CLOUDINESS ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF ALBANY.

THE WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT MAINLY FROM A NORTH TO NORTHWEST
DIRECTION UNDER 10 MPH DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING PRIMARILY SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. BASIN-AVERAGED RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON
SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS. RIVER
LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IRL
NEAR TERM...IRL
SHORT TERM...IRL
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/IRL
HYDROLOGY...IRL



000
FXUS61 KALY 022041
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
441 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY TO THE REGION. A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE COULD BRING AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ON
SATURDAY FOR AREAS MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.
DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 435 PM EDT...A PLEASANT EARLY JULY AFTERNOON CONTINUES
ACROSS THE REGION WITH COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY. HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION CONTINUES TO
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. AS THE HIGH
CONTINUES TO SHIFT CLOSER TO THE REGION...CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE BY THE EVENING HOURS...BECOMING MOSTLY
SUNNY/MOSTLY CLEAR BY SUNSET.

THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...EASTERN CATSKILLS...BERKSHIRES AND NORTHWEST CONNECTICUT
WHERE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO THROUGHOUT THE EVENING
HOURS AS MID-LEVEL MOISTURE SPILLS NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE MID- ATLANTIC REGION. HAVE REMOVED
MENTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM THE FORECAST WITH DRY CONDITIONS
NOW EXPECTED FOR THE ENTIRE REGION THIS AFTERNOON DESPITE A COLD
POOL ASSOCIATED WITH THE BASE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST/NORTHWEST
GENERALLY 5-15 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH ACROSS THE MOHAWK
VALLEY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON HAVE TOPPED OUT FROM THE UPPER
60S TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE REGION.

TONIGHT WILL FEATURE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS...ALLOWING FOR A COOL NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. LOW
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S
TO MID 50S.

WINDS WILL TREND TOWARDS CALM OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN RIVER VALLEY
AREAS...THE LAKE GEORGE/GLENS FALLS REGION...AND FAVORED AREAS IN
SOUTHERN VERMONT AND THE BERKSHIRES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF A POPUP SHOWER/PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ON INDEPENDENCE
DAY/SATURDAY.

THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY RESULTING IN ANOTHER EXCELLENT
WEATHER DAY FEATURING DRY CONDITIONS AND HIGHS GENERALLY RANGING
FROM THE LOW 70S TO NEAR 80...WITH THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS IN THE
UPPER 60S AND A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY REACHING
INTO THE LOW 80S. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND 5 MPH.

THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST OF THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY...AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK
PIECE OF ENERGY IMPACT THE REGION FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. ANY
FORCING WITH THIS UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE LOOKS MARGINAL AT BEST
AND HAVE ONLY GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR A STRAY
SHOWER/PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. THIS UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER...WITH MOST AREAS PARTLY CLOUDY BUT STILL SEEING A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. WHILE THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME
WET WEATHER ON INDEPENDENCE DAY...IT APPEARS MOST LIKELY THAT IT
WILL BE DRY...ALTHOUGH AGAIN CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

ANY ONGOING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OVER IN TIME
FOR FIREWORKS SATURDAY NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPERATURES FALLING
INTO THE 60S ARE EXPECTED WITH EVENTUAL LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT
RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE REGION.

ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR
SUNDAY RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
70S TO LOW 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDING INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. MODELS INDICATING THE RIDGE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY PROVIDING SUNNY SKIES AND SEASONABLY
WARM TEMPERATURES. THE ECMWF IS SHOWING AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPING IN
THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...HEADING
TOWARDS OUR REGION MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THIS SOLUTION DOES NOT
AGREE WITH THE GFS/CMC WHICH BOTH KEEP THE STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE. SO
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION DRY CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT.

THE RIDGE THEN STARTS TO BREAK DOWN SOMEWHAT WITH UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS LOWERING SLIGHTLY FOR TUESDAY. WILL MENTION ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME DUE TO LACK OF ANY PROMINENT FORCING
MECHANISM. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL START TO RISE AS WELL...WITH
DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE 60S. COMBINED WITH TEMPS IN THE 80S IT
WILL START TO FEEL MUGGY AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF LOW HUMIDITY FOR
EARLY JULY.

THERE APPEARS TO BE A SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT POSSIBLY MOVE THROUGH...ALTHOUGH THIS
IS NOT CONSISTENT AMONG THE GUIDANCE. THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL BE AN IMPORTANT FACTOR IN DETERMINING THE TIMING/STRENGTH
OF THE NEXT POTENTIAL CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
ARRIVING. WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY...AS THIS IS WHEN IT
LOOKS LIKE THE RIDGE WILL COMPLETELY BREAK DOWN...ALLOWING FOR A
BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
BE NEAR NORMAL FROM MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...

A VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE HAS RESULTED IN SCT-BKN CU BASES THIS
AFTERNOON...ABOVE 3000 FEET (THOUGH PRETTY CLOSE TO THAT THRESHOLD
AT KPSF). THERE COULD BE A SPRINKLE ESPECIALLY AT KPSF...BUT NO
IMPACT EXPECTED.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NW TO N 5-10KTS THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ON BY TONIGHT AND WE LOOSE THE SURFACE
HEATING. THAT WILL LEAVE US WITH A MAINLY CLEAR SKY AND ANY WIND
WILL BECOME LIGHT OR CALM.

THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SOME RADIATIONAL FOG TO DEVELOP. IT
APPEARS THE "CROSSOVER" TEMPERATURE WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S. IT
LOOKS AS IF ONLY KGFL WILL DIP MUCH BELOW 50 TONIGHT SO WE DID
CONTINUE THE IDEA OF IFR FOG FORMING AT THAT STATION AFTER
08Z...LASTING UNTIL 11Z. AT KPSF...OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO BE
AROUND 50...SO WE PLACED MVFR FOG AT THAT SITE BETWEEN 08Z-11Z.

THE OTHER TWO TAFS LOOK TO REMAIN JUST ABOVE 50 OVERNIGHT SO FOR
NOW...JUST USED SHALLOW FOG (MIFG) AT BOTH THESE TAF SITES BETWEEN
08Z-11Z.

AFTER 11Z...WE WILL HAVE A REALLY NICE AVIATION DAY FOR FLYING.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY...A LIGHT
NORTH WIND AROUND 5KTS AND FEW-SCT CU DEVELOPING 4000-5000 FEET.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY...

EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WILL
BE THE USUAL NEARLY FULL RECOVERY EACH OF THE NEXT SEVERAL NIGHTS
WITH LIGHT OR CALM WINDS...YIELDING TO THE FORMATION OF DEW. RH
VALUES WILL DROP EACH AFTERNOON INTO THE 30S IN THE VALLEYS/40S
HIGHER TERRAIN. SUNSHINE WILL PREVAIL ALTHOUGH WILL BE MIXED
WITH A GOOD DEAL OF AFTERNOON CLOUDINESS ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF ALBANY.

THE WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT MAINLY FROM A NORTH TO NORTHWEST
DIRECTION UNDER 10 MPH DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING PRIMARILY SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. BASIN-AVERAGED RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON
SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS. RIVER
LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IRL
NEAR TERM...IRL
SHORT TERM...IRL
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/IRL
HYDROLOGY...IRL




000
FXUS61 KALY 022037
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
437 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY TO THE REGION. A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE COULD BRING AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ON
SATURDAY FOR AREAS MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.
DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 435 PM EDT...A PLEASANT EARLY JULY AFTERNOON CONTINUES
ACROSS THE REGION WITH COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY. HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION CONTINUES TO
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. AS THE HIGH
CONTINUES TO SHIFT CLOSER TO THE REGION...CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE BY THE EVENING HOURS...BECOMING MOSTLY
SUNNY/MOSTLY CLEAR BY SUNSET.

THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...EASTERN CATSKILLS...BERKSHIRES AND NORTHWEST CONNECTICUT
WHERE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO THROUGHOUT THE EVENING
HOURS AS MID-LEVEL MOISTURE SPILLS NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE MID- ATLANTIC REGION. HAVE REMOVED
MENTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM THE FORECAST WITH DRY CONDITIONS
NOW EXPECTED FOR THE ENTIRE REGION THIS AFTERNOON DESPITE A COLD
POOL ASSOCIATED WITH THE BASE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST/NORTHWEST
GENERALLY 5-15 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH ACROSS THE MOHAWK
VALLEY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON HAVE TOPPED OUT FROM THE UPPER
60S TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE REGION.

TONIGHT WILL FEATURE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS...ALLOWING FOR A COOL NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. LOW
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S
TO MID 50S.

WINDS WILL TREND TOWARDS CALM OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN RIVER VALLEY
AREAS...THE LAKE GEORGE/GLENS FALLS REGION...AND FAVORED AREAS IN
SOUTHERN VERMONT AND THE BERKSHIRES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF A POPUP SHOWER/PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ON INDEPENDENCE
DAY/SATURDAY.

THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY RESULTING IN ANOTHER EXCELLENT
WEATHER DAY FEATURING DRY CONDITIONS AND HIGHS GENERALLY RANGING
FROM THE LOW 70S TO NEAR 80...WITH THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS IN THE
UPPER 60S AND A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY REACHING
INTO THE LOW 80S. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND 5 MPH.

THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST OF THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY...AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK
PIECE OF ENERGY IMPACT THE REGION FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. ANY
FORCING WITH THIS UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE LOOKS MARGINAL AT BEST
AND HAVE ONLY GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR A STRAY
SHOWER/PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. THIS UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER...WITH MOST AREAS PARTLY CLOUDY BUT STILL SEEING A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. WHILE THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME
WET WEATHER ON INDEPENDENCE DAY...IT APPEARS MOST LIKELY THAT IT
WILL BE DRY...ALTHOUGH AGAIN CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

ANY ONGOING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OVER IN TIME
FOR FIREWORKS SATURDAY NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPERATURES FALLING
INTO THE 60S ARE EXPECTED WITH EVENTUAL LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT
RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE REGION.

ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR
SUNDAY RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
70S TO LOW 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDING INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. MODELS INDICATING THE RIDGE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY PROVIDING SUNNY SKIES AND SEASONABLY
WARM TEMPERATURES. THE ECMWF IS SHOWING AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPING IN
THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...HEADING
TOWARDS OUR REGION MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THIS SOLUTION DOES NOT
AGREE WITH THE GFS/CMC WHICH BOTH KEEP THE STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE. SO
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION DRY CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT.

THE RIDGE THEN STARTS TO BREAK DOWN SOMEWHAT WITH UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS LOWERING SLIGHTLY FOR TUESDAY. WILL MENTION ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME DUE TO LACK OF ANY PROMINENT FORCING
MECHANISM. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL START TO RISE AS WELL...WITH
DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE 60S. COMBINED WITH TEMPS IN THE 80S IT
WILL START TO FEEL MUGGY AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF LOW HUMIDITY FOR
EARLY JULY.

THERE APPEARS TO BE A SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT POSSIBLY MOVE THROUGH...ALTHOUGH THIS
IS NOT CONSISTENT AMONG THE GUIDANCE. THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL BE AN IMPORTANT FACTOR IN DETERMINING THE TIMING/STRENGTH
OF THE NEXT POTENTIAL CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
ARRIVING. WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY...AS THIS IS WHEN IT
LOOKS LIKE THE RIDGE WILL COMPLETELY BREAK DOWN...ALLOWING FOR A
BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
BE NEAR NORMAL FROM MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...

A VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE HAS RESULTED IN SCT-BKN CU BASES THIS
AFTERNOON...ABOVE 3000 FEET (THOUGH PRETTY CLOSE TO THAT THRESHOLD
AT KPSF). THERE COULD BE A SPRINKLE ESPECIALLY AT KPSF...BUT NO
IMPACT EXPECTED.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NW TO N 5-10KTS THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ON BY TONIGHT AND WE LOOSE THE SURFACE
HEATING. THAT WILL LEAVE US WITH A MAINLY CLEAR SKY AND ANY WIND
WILL BECOME LIGHT OR CALM.

THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SOME RADIATIONAL FOG TO DEVELOP. IT
APPEARS THE "CROSSOVER" TEMPERATURE WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S. IT
LOOKS AS IF ONLY KGFL WILL DIP MUCH BELOW 50 TONIGHT SO WE DID
CONTINUE THE IDEA OF IFR FOG FORMING AT THAT STATION AFTER
08Z...LASTING UNTIL 11Z. AT KPSF...OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO BE
AROUND 50...SO WE PLACED MVFR FOG AT THAT SITE BETWEEN 08Z-11Z.

THE OTHER TWO TAFS LOOK TO REMAIN JUST ABOVE 50 OVERNIGHT SO FOR
NOW...JUST USED SHALLOW FOG (MIFG) AT BOTH THESE TAF SITES BETWEEN
08Z-11Z.

AFTER 11Z...WE WILL HAVE A REALLY NICE AVIATION DAY FOR FLYING.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY...A LIGHT
NORTH WIND AROUND 5KTS AND FEW-SCT CU DEVELOPING 4000-5000 FEET.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY...

EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WILL
BE THE USUAL NEARLY FULL RECOVERY EACH OF THE NEXT SEVERAL NIGHTS
WITH LIGHT OR CALM WINDS...YIELDING TO THE FORMATION OF DEW. RH
VALUES WILL DROP EACH AFTERNOON INTO THE 30S IN THE VALLEYS/40S
HIGHER TERRAIN. SUNSHINE WILL PREVAIL ALTHOUGH WILL BE MIXED
WITH A GOOD DEAL OF AFTERNOON CLOUDINESS ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF ALBANY.

THE WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT MAINLY FROM A NORTH TO NORTHWEST
DIRECTION UNDER 10 MPH DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING PRIMARILY SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. BASIN-AVERAGED RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON
SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS. RIVER
LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IRL
NEAR TERM...IRL
SHORT TERM...IRL
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/IRL
HYDROLOGY...IRL




000
FXUS61 KALY 022037
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
437 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY TO THE REGION. A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE COULD BRING AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ON
SATURDAY FOR AREAS MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.
DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 435 PM EDT...A PLEASANT EARLY JULY AFTERNOON CONTINUES
ACROSS THE REGION WITH COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY. HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION CONTINUES TO
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. AS THE HIGH
CONTINUES TO SHIFT CLOSER TO THE REGION...CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE BY THE EVENING HOURS...BECOMING MOSTLY
SUNNY/MOSTLY CLEAR BY SUNSET.

THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...EASTERN CATSKILLS...BERKSHIRES AND NORTHWEST CONNECTICUT
WHERE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO THROUGHOUT THE EVENING
HOURS AS MID-LEVEL MOISTURE SPILLS NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE MID- ATLANTIC REGION. HAVE REMOVED
MENTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM THE FORECAST WITH DRY CONDITIONS
NOW EXPECTED FOR THE ENTIRE REGION THIS AFTERNOON DESPITE A COLD
POOL ASSOCIATED WITH THE BASE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST/NORTHWEST
GENERALLY 5-15 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH ACROSS THE MOHAWK
VALLEY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON HAVE TOPPED OUT FROM THE UPPER
60S TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE REGION.

TONIGHT WILL FEATURE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS...ALLOWING FOR A COOL NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. LOW
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S
TO MID 50S.

WINDS WILL TREND TOWARDS CALM OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN RIVER VALLEY
AREAS...THE LAKE GEORGE/GLENS FALLS REGION...AND FAVORED AREAS IN
SOUTHERN VERMONT AND THE BERKSHIRES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF A POPUP SHOWER/PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ON INDEPENDENCE
DAY/SATURDAY.

THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY RESULTING IN ANOTHER EXCELLENT
WEATHER DAY FEATURING DRY CONDITIONS AND HIGHS GENERALLY RANGING
FROM THE LOW 70S TO NEAR 80...WITH THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS IN THE
UPPER 60S AND A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY REACHING
INTO THE LOW 80S. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND 5 MPH.

THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST OF THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY...AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK
PIECE OF ENERGY IMPACT THE REGION FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. ANY
FORCING WITH THIS UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE LOOKS MARGINAL AT BEST
AND HAVE ONLY GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR A STRAY
SHOWER/PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. THIS UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER...WITH MOST AREAS PARTLY CLOUDY BUT STILL SEEING A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. WHILE THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME
WET WEATHER ON INDEPENDENCE DAY...IT APPEARS MOST LIKELY THAT IT
WILL BE DRY...ALTHOUGH AGAIN CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

ANY ONGOING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OVER IN TIME
FOR FIREWORKS SATURDAY NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPERATURES FALLING
INTO THE 60S ARE EXPECTED WITH EVENTUAL LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT
RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE REGION.

ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR
SUNDAY RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
70S TO LOW 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDING INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. MODELS INDICATING THE RIDGE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY PROVIDING SUNNY SKIES AND SEASONABLY
WARM TEMPERATURES. THE ECMWF IS SHOWING AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPING IN
THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...HEADING
TOWARDS OUR REGION MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THIS SOLUTION DOES NOT
AGREE WITH THE GFS/CMC WHICH BOTH KEEP THE STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE. SO
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION DRY CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT.

THE RIDGE THEN STARTS TO BREAK DOWN SOMEWHAT WITH UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS LOWERING SLIGHTLY FOR TUESDAY. WILL MENTION ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME DUE TO LACK OF ANY PROMINENT FORCING
MECHANISM. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL START TO RISE AS WELL...WITH
DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE 60S. COMBINED WITH TEMPS IN THE 80S IT
WILL START TO FEEL MUGGY AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF LOW HUMIDITY FOR
EARLY JULY.

THERE APPEARS TO BE A SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT POSSIBLY MOVE THROUGH...ALTHOUGH THIS
IS NOT CONSISTENT AMONG THE GUIDANCE. THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL BE AN IMPORTANT FACTOR IN DETERMINING THE TIMING/STRENGTH
OF THE NEXT POTENTIAL CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
ARRIVING. WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY...AS THIS IS WHEN IT
LOOKS LIKE THE RIDGE WILL COMPLETELY BREAK DOWN...ALLOWING FOR A
BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
BE NEAR NORMAL FROM MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...

A VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE HAS RESULTED IN SCT-BKN CU BASES THIS
AFTERNOON...ABOVE 3000 FEET (THOUGH PRETTY CLOSE TO THAT THRESHOLD
AT KPSF). THERE COULD BE A SPRINKLE ESPECIALLY AT KPSF...BUT NO
IMPACT EXPECTED.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NW TO N 5-10KTS THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ON BY TONIGHT AND WE LOOSE THE SURFACE
HEATING. THAT WILL LEAVE US WITH A MAINLY CLEAR SKY AND ANY WIND
WILL BECOME LIGHT OR CALM.

THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SOME RADIATIONAL FOG TO DEVELOP. IT
APPEARS THE "CROSSOVER" TEMPERATURE WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S. IT
LOOKS AS IF ONLY KGFL WILL DIP MUCH BELOW 50 TONIGHT SO WE DID
CONTINUE THE IDEA OF IFR FOG FORMING AT THAT STATION AFTER
08Z...LASTING UNTIL 11Z. AT KPSF...OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO BE
AROUND 50...SO WE PLACED MVFR FOG AT THAT SITE BETWEEN 08Z-11Z.

THE OTHER TWO TAFS LOOK TO REMAIN JUST ABOVE 50 OVERNIGHT SO FOR
NOW...JUST USED SHALLOW FOG (MIFG) AT BOTH THESE TAF SITES BETWEEN
08Z-11Z.

AFTER 11Z...WE WILL HAVE A REALLY NICE AVIATION DAY FOR FLYING.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY...A LIGHT
NORTH WIND AROUND 5KTS AND FEW-SCT CU DEVELOPING 4000-5000 FEET.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY...

EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WILL
BE THE USUAL NEARLY FULL RECOVERY EACH OF THE NEXT SEVERAL NIGHTS
WITH LIGHT OR CALM WINDS...YIELDING TO THE FORMATION OF DEW. RH
VALUES WILL DROP EACH AFTERNOON INTO THE 30S IN THE VALLEYS/40S
HIGHER TERRAIN. SUNSHINE WILL PREVAIL ALTHOUGH WILL BE MIXED
WITH A GOOD DEAL OF AFTERNOON CLOUDINESS ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF ALBANY.

THE WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT MAINLY FROM A NORTH TO NORTHWEST
DIRECTION UNDER 10 MPH DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING PRIMARILY SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. BASIN-AVERAGED RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON
SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS. RIVER
LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IRL
NEAR TERM...IRL
SHORT TERM...IRL
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/IRL
HYDROLOGY...IRL




000
FXUS61 KALY 022037
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
437 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY TO THE REGION. A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE COULD BRING AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ON
SATURDAY FOR AREAS MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.
DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 435 PM EDT...A PLEASANT EARLY JULY AFTERNOON CONTINUES
ACROSS THE REGION WITH COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY. HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION CONTINUES TO
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. AS THE HIGH
CONTINUES TO SHIFT CLOSER TO THE REGION...CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE BY THE EVENING HOURS...BECOMING MOSTLY
SUNNY/MOSTLY CLEAR BY SUNSET.

THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...EASTERN CATSKILLS...BERKSHIRES AND NORTHWEST CONNECTICUT
WHERE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO THROUGHOUT THE EVENING
HOURS AS MID-LEVEL MOISTURE SPILLS NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE MID- ATLANTIC REGION. HAVE REMOVED
MENTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM THE FORECAST WITH DRY CONDITIONS
NOW EXPECTED FOR THE ENTIRE REGION THIS AFTERNOON DESPITE A COLD
POOL ASSOCIATED WITH THE BASE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST/NORTHWEST
GENERALLY 5-15 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH ACROSS THE MOHAWK
VALLEY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON HAVE TOPPED OUT FROM THE UPPER
60S TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE REGION.

TONIGHT WILL FEATURE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS...ALLOWING FOR A COOL NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. LOW
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S
TO MID 50S.

WINDS WILL TREND TOWARDS CALM OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN RIVER VALLEY
AREAS...THE LAKE GEORGE/GLENS FALLS REGION...AND FAVORED AREAS IN
SOUTHERN VERMONT AND THE BERKSHIRES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF A POPUP SHOWER/PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ON INDEPENDENCE
DAY/SATURDAY.

THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY RESULTING IN ANOTHER EXCELLENT
WEATHER DAY FEATURING DRY CONDITIONS AND HIGHS GENERALLY RANGING
FROM THE LOW 70S TO NEAR 80...WITH THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS IN THE
UPPER 60S AND A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY REACHING
INTO THE LOW 80S. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND 5 MPH.

THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST OF THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY...AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK
PIECE OF ENERGY IMPACT THE REGION FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. ANY
FORCING WITH THIS UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE LOOKS MARGINAL AT BEST
AND HAVE ONLY GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR A STRAY
SHOWER/PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. THIS UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER...WITH MOST AREAS PARTLY CLOUDY BUT STILL SEEING A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. WHILE THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME
WET WEATHER ON INDEPENDENCE DAY...IT APPEARS MOST LIKELY THAT IT
WILL BE DRY...ALTHOUGH AGAIN CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

ANY ONGOING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OVER IN TIME
FOR FIREWORKS SATURDAY NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPERATURES FALLING
INTO THE 60S ARE EXPECTED WITH EVENTUAL LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT
RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE REGION.

ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR
SUNDAY RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
70S TO LOW 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDING INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. MODELS INDICATING THE RIDGE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY PROVIDING SUNNY SKIES AND SEASONABLY
WARM TEMPERATURES. THE ECMWF IS SHOWING AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPING IN
THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...HEADING
TOWARDS OUR REGION MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THIS SOLUTION DOES NOT
AGREE WITH THE GFS/CMC WHICH BOTH KEEP THE STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE. SO
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION DRY CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT.

THE RIDGE THEN STARTS TO BREAK DOWN SOMEWHAT WITH UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS LOWERING SLIGHTLY FOR TUESDAY. WILL MENTION ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME DUE TO LACK OF ANY PROMINENT FORCING
MECHANISM. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL START TO RISE AS WELL...WITH
DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE 60S. COMBINED WITH TEMPS IN THE 80S IT
WILL START TO FEEL MUGGY AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF LOW HUMIDITY FOR
EARLY JULY.

THERE APPEARS TO BE A SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT POSSIBLY MOVE THROUGH...ALTHOUGH THIS
IS NOT CONSISTENT AMONG THE GUIDANCE. THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL BE AN IMPORTANT FACTOR IN DETERMINING THE TIMING/STRENGTH
OF THE NEXT POTENTIAL CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
ARRIVING. WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY...AS THIS IS WHEN IT
LOOKS LIKE THE RIDGE WILL COMPLETELY BREAK DOWN...ALLOWING FOR A
BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
BE NEAR NORMAL FROM MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...

A VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE HAS RESULTED IN SCT-BKN CU BASES THIS
AFTERNOON...ABOVE 3000 FEET (THOUGH PRETTY CLOSE TO THAT THRESHOLD
AT KPSF). THERE COULD BE A SPRINKLE ESPECIALLY AT KPSF...BUT NO
IMPACT EXPECTED.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NW TO N 5-10KTS THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ON BY TONIGHT AND WE LOOSE THE SURFACE
HEATING. THAT WILL LEAVE US WITH A MAINLY CLEAR SKY AND ANY WIND
WILL BECOME LIGHT OR CALM.

THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SOME RADIATIONAL FOG TO DEVELOP. IT
APPEARS THE "CROSSOVER" TEMPERATURE WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S. IT
LOOKS AS IF ONLY KGFL WILL DIP MUCH BELOW 50 TONIGHT SO WE DID
CONTINUE THE IDEA OF IFR FOG FORMING AT THAT STATION AFTER
08Z...LASTING UNTIL 11Z. AT KPSF...OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO BE
AROUND 50...SO WE PLACED MVFR FOG AT THAT SITE BETWEEN 08Z-11Z.

THE OTHER TWO TAFS LOOK TO REMAIN JUST ABOVE 50 OVERNIGHT SO FOR
NOW...JUST USED SHALLOW FOG (MIFG) AT BOTH THESE TAF SITES BETWEEN
08Z-11Z.

AFTER 11Z...WE WILL HAVE A REALLY NICE AVIATION DAY FOR FLYING.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY...A LIGHT
NORTH WIND AROUND 5KTS AND FEW-SCT CU DEVELOPING 4000-5000 FEET.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY...

EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WILL
BE THE USUAL NEARLY FULL RECOVERY EACH OF THE NEXT SEVERAL NIGHTS
WITH LIGHT OR CALM WINDS...YIELDING TO THE FORMATION OF DEW. RH
VALUES WILL DROP EACH AFTERNOON INTO THE 30S IN THE VALLEYS/40S
HIGHER TERRAIN. SUNSHINE WILL PREVAIL ALTHOUGH WILL BE MIXED
WITH A GOOD DEAL OF AFTERNOON CLOUDINESS ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF ALBANY.

THE WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT MAINLY FROM A NORTH TO NORTHWEST
DIRECTION UNDER 10 MPH DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING PRIMARILY SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. BASIN-AVERAGED RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON
SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS. RIVER
LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IRL
NEAR TERM...IRL
SHORT TERM...IRL
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/IRL
HYDROLOGY...IRL




000
FXUS61 KALY 022037
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
437 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY TO THE REGION. A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE COULD BRING AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ON
SATURDAY FOR AREAS MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.
DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 435 PM EDT...A PLEASANT EARLY JULY AFTERNOON CONTINUES
ACROSS THE REGION WITH COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY. HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION CONTINUES TO
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. AS THE HIGH
CONTINUES TO SHIFT CLOSER TO THE REGION...CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE BY THE EVENING HOURS...BECOMING MOSTLY
SUNNY/MOSTLY CLEAR BY SUNSET.

THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...EASTERN CATSKILLS...BERKSHIRES AND NORTHWEST CONNECTICUT
WHERE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO THROUGHOUT THE EVENING
HOURS AS MID-LEVEL MOISTURE SPILLS NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE MID- ATLANTIC REGION. HAVE REMOVED
MENTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM THE FORECAST WITH DRY CONDITIONS
NOW EXPECTED FOR THE ENTIRE REGION THIS AFTERNOON DESPITE A COLD
POOL ASSOCIATED WITH THE BASE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST/NORTHWEST
GENERALLY 5-15 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH ACROSS THE MOHAWK
VALLEY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON HAVE TOPPED OUT FROM THE UPPER
60S TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE REGION.

TONIGHT WILL FEATURE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS...ALLOWING FOR A COOL NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. LOW
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S
TO MID 50S.

WINDS WILL TREND TOWARDS CALM OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN RIVER VALLEY
AREAS...THE LAKE GEORGE/GLENS FALLS REGION...AND FAVORED AREAS IN
SOUTHERN VERMONT AND THE BERKSHIRES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF A POPUP SHOWER/PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ON INDEPENDENCE
DAY/SATURDAY.

THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY RESULTING IN ANOTHER EXCELLENT
WEATHER DAY FEATURING DRY CONDITIONS AND HIGHS GENERALLY RANGING
FROM THE LOW 70S TO NEAR 80...WITH THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS IN THE
UPPER 60S AND A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY REACHING
INTO THE LOW 80S. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND 5 MPH.

THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST OF THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY...AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK
PIECE OF ENERGY IMPACT THE REGION FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. ANY
FORCING WITH THIS UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE LOOKS MARGINAL AT BEST
AND HAVE ONLY GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR A STRAY
SHOWER/PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. THIS UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER...WITH MOST AREAS PARTLY CLOUDY BUT STILL SEEING A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. WHILE THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME
WET WEATHER ON INDEPENDENCE DAY...IT APPEARS MOST LIKELY THAT IT
WILL BE DRY...ALTHOUGH AGAIN CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

ANY ONGOING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OVER IN TIME
FOR FIREWORKS SATURDAY NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPERATURES FALLING
INTO THE 60S ARE EXPECTED WITH EVENTUAL LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT
RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE REGION.

ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR
SUNDAY RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
70S TO LOW 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDING INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. MODELS INDICATING THE RIDGE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY PROVIDING SUNNY SKIES AND SEASONABLY
WARM TEMPERATURES. THE ECMWF IS SHOWING AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPING IN
THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...HEADING
TOWARDS OUR REGION MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THIS SOLUTION DOES NOT
AGREE WITH THE GFS/CMC WHICH BOTH KEEP THE STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE. SO
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION DRY CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT.

THE RIDGE THEN STARTS TO BREAK DOWN SOMEWHAT WITH UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS LOWERING SLIGHTLY FOR TUESDAY. WILL MENTION ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME DUE TO LACK OF ANY PROMINENT FORCING
MECHANISM. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL START TO RISE AS WELL...WITH
DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE 60S. COMBINED WITH TEMPS IN THE 80S IT
WILL START TO FEEL MUGGY AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF LOW HUMIDITY FOR
EARLY JULY.

THERE APPEARS TO BE A SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT POSSIBLY MOVE THROUGH...ALTHOUGH THIS
IS NOT CONSISTENT AMONG THE GUIDANCE. THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL BE AN IMPORTANT FACTOR IN DETERMINING THE TIMING/STRENGTH
OF THE NEXT POTENTIAL CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
ARRIVING. WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY...AS THIS IS WHEN IT
LOOKS LIKE THE RIDGE WILL COMPLETELY BREAK DOWN...ALLOWING FOR A
BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
BE NEAR NORMAL FROM MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...

A VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE HAS RESULTED IN SCT-BKN CU BASES THIS
AFTERNOON...ABOVE 3000 FEET (THOUGH PRETTY CLOSE TO THAT THRESHOLD
AT KPSF). THERE COULD BE A SPRINKLE ESPECIALLY AT KPSF...BUT NO
IMPACT EXPECTED.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NW TO N 5-10KTS THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ON BY TONIGHT AND WE LOOSE THE SURFACE
HEATING. THAT WILL LEAVE US WITH A MAINLY CLEAR SKY AND ANY WIND
WILL BECOME LIGHT OR CALM.

THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SOME RADIATIONAL FOG TO DEVELOP. IT
APPEARS THE "CROSSOVER" TEMPERATURE WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S. IT
LOOKS AS IF ONLY KGFL WILL DIP MUCH BELOW 50 TONIGHT SO WE DID
CONTINUE THE IDEA OF IFR FOG FORMING AT THAT STATION AFTER
08Z...LASTING UNTIL 11Z. AT KPSF...OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO BE
AROUND 50...SO WE PLACED MVFR FOG AT THAT SITE BETWEEN 08Z-11Z.

THE OTHER TWO TAFS LOOK TO REMAIN JUST ABOVE 50 OVERNIGHT SO FOR
NOW...JUST USED SHALLOW FOG (MIFG) AT BOTH THESE TAF SITES BETWEEN
08Z-11Z.

AFTER 11Z...WE WILL HAVE A REALLY NICE AVIATION DAY FOR FLYING.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY...A LIGHT
NORTH WIND AROUND 5KTS AND FEW-SCT CU DEVELOPING 4000-5000 FEET.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY...

EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WILL
BE THE USUAL NEARLY FULL RECOVERY EACH OF THE NEXT SEVERAL NIGHTS
WITH LIGHT OR CALM WINDS...YIELDING TO THE FORMATION OF DEW. RH
VALUES WILL DROP EACH AFTERNOON INTO THE 30S IN THE VALLEYS/40S
HIGHER TERRAIN. SUNSHINE WILL PREVAIL ALTHOUGH WILL BE MIXED
WITH A GOOD DEAL OF AFTERNOON CLOUDINESS ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF ALBANY.

THE WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT MAINLY FROM A NORTH TO NORTHWEST
DIRECTION UNDER 10 MPH DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING PRIMARILY SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. BASIN-AVERAGED RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON
SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS. RIVER
LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IRL
NEAR TERM...IRL
SHORT TERM...IRL
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/IRL
HYDROLOGY...IRL




000
FXUS61 KBOX 022036
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
436 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT SHIFTS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. A MAINLY QUIET
AND DRY 4TH OF JULY HOLIDAY WEEKEND BENEATH HIGH PRESSURE IS
MAINTAINED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEREAFTER THE WEATHER TAKES A
TURN TOWARDS A WARM...MUGGY...WET-WEATHER PATTERN WITH CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY MIDWEEK POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO THE
FOLLOWING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

COLD FRONT LIES ALONG OUR SOUTH COAST. ONE AREA OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
IS PASSING SOUTH OF THE REGION. THE TRACK OF THIS WEATHER KEEPS
MOST OF IT OFFSHORE...BUT COULD CLIP THE ISLANDS DURING THIS
EVENING. OUTSIDE CHANCE OF SHOWERS REACHING THE SOUTH COAST
ESPECIALLY AROUND THE ELBOW OF CAPE COD.

PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES IS INDUCING A WAVE ALONG THE COLD FRONT THAT IS MOVING
ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
SUPPORTING UPPER JET WILL SWEEP ACROSS NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
FIRST PART OF TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT...BUT MOSTLY OFFSHORE. AGAIN...THE BEST
CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS THE ISLANDS WITH DIMINISHING CHANCE FARTHER
NORTH.

AS THE WAVE MOVES PAST THE SURFACE FLOW SHOULD TURN NORTHWEST AND
DRAW DRIER AIR FARTHER SOUTH. EXPECT DRY WEATHER FOR MOST AREAS
WITH DIMINISHING SKY COVER AFTER MIDNIGHT. DEW POINTS IN THE 50S
INLAND AND LOWER 60S ALONG THE COAST...WHICH PROVIDES A GOOD
ESTIMATE FOR OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE.
EXPECT CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE
LIGHT...SO LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE DAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW SEA
BREEZES TO FORM ALONG THE COASTS LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
MIXED LAYER IS FORECAST TO REACH 850 MB WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS AT
THAT LEVEL AROUND 10C. MIXING THIS TO THE SURFACE SHOULD SUPPORT
MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S...CALL IT 75 TO 80. COOLER VALUES WHERE
THE SEA BREEZE TAKES HOLD.

FRIDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST BUT REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER NEW ENGLAND.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND FORMS ANOTHER
WAVE ALONG THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH. THIS SHOULD GENERATE ANOTHER
AREA OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THAT APPROACH FROM OUR SOUTH OVERNIGHT.
WE WILL BRING SOME INCREASE IN SKY COVER DURING THE NIGHT WITH THE
MOST COVER ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. BUT THE DRY AIR IN PLACE AND THE
FOCUS OF SUPPORTING LIFT TO OUR SOUTH SHOULD KEEP THE WEATHER DRY.
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 50S...MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE 50S AND
AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - POSSIBLE SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR THE 4TH OF JULY?
 - DRY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...PERHAPS WARMER
 - RETURN OF WARM...MUGGY...AND WET-WEATHER BY MIDWEEK
 - CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN

*/ DISCUSSION...

AN EBB AND FLOW PATTERN. SHOULD A H5 LOW ANOMALY MAINTAIN ACROSS THE
N ATLANTIC WITH H5 RIDGING IN AND AROUND THE VICINITY OF THE W CONUS
THEN H5 TROUGHING WOULD BE PREFERRED THROUGH THE C-CONUS ALONG THE E-
PERIPHERY OF WHICH THE NE-CONUS WOULD EXPERIENCE AN ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN WHILE WOBBLING BETWEEN AIRMASSES. NOTHING IS CERTAIN AS THE
ATMOSPHERIC IS CHAOTIC...BUT INTERPRETING ANOMALIES AS OF LATE WHILE
INTERROGATING ENSEMBLE DATA LEADS TO CONFIDENCE THAT WE WILL NOT BE
SEEING HEAT-WAVES NOR 100-DEGREE TEMPERATURES ANYTIME SOON. A SWAY
OF TEMPERATURES NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WITH EXCHANGING AIRMASSES...
GOING FROM COOL AND DRY TO WARM AND MUGGY...A PATTERN AS OF LATE
THAT IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE. IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF WE DRAW
PARALLELS TO THE WEAK EL-NINO SUMMER OF 2004 WITH THE C-CONUS HAVING
WELL BELOW-NORMAL SUMMER TEMPERATURES WITH THE NE-CONUS HOLDING
NEAR- NORMAL.

LETS KEEP IT SIMPLE AND STRAIGHT-FORWARD WITH THE ABOVE DISCUSSION
IN MIND. A CONSENSUS OF FORECAST GUIDANCE IS WARRANTED AS THERE IS
OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY MIDWEEK THERE ARE
SIGNALS OF DISCREPANCY AS FORECAST GUIDANCE HANDLES THE RETURN OF
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. BEST TO LOOK AT CIPS ANALOGS TO SEE IF THERE IS ANY-
THING WE SHOULD BE CONCERNED ABOUT ON THE HORIZON.

*/ DAILIES...

JULY 4TH WEEKEND:

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY-CAPPING MECHANISM KEEPS US PERHAPS QUIET
AND DRY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD? YET THERE HAS BEEN AN INDICATION OF A
STOUT STRETCHED MID-LEVEL VORTEX THROUGH THE OVERALL TROUGH-PATTERN
FOR QUITE SOME TIME. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE RELATIVE STRENGTH OF
THE HIGH UP AGAINST THE FORCING MECHANISMS ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL
ENERGY ALOFT...WHETHER WE CAN GET SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY MAINLY PER
MID-LEVEL FORCING IN WHAT APPEARS TO BE A RATHER DRY ENVIRONMENT
WITH A MEASURE OF STABILITY. WILL KEEP WITH A MOSTLY-DRY FORECAST
FOR NOW BUT HOLDING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER S AND W PORTIONS OF S
NEW ENGLAND...WITH CHANCE POPS S OFFSHORE.

OTHERWISE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECKS ENCROACH FROM THE WEST. FLOW
LOOKS TO BE RATHER LIGHT...AND BENEATH HIGH PRESSURE MAY MAKE FOR
SOME SMOKEY FIREWORKS DISPLAYS. PERHAPS SOME FASTER FLOW MOVES IN BY
3Z AS THE 02.12Z NAM SUGGESTS BUT THINK ITS TOO ROBUST. WIND SPEEDS
THROUGH MIDNIGHT LOOK TO BE AROUND 5 MPH AND NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR AS
FROM WHAT DIRECTION. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT.

EARLY NEXT WEEK:

KEEPING IT DRY. HIGH PRESSURE SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION. CHILLY INTO
MONDAY MORNING BUT BEGIN TO SEE RETURN S-FLOW BY THE END OF THE DAY
GOING ON INTO TUESDAY. COULD SEE A WARMER-THAN-AVERAGE PATTERN AT
LEAST BY TUESDAY WITH H85 +14C AIR MOVING IN ALOFT. HIGHS AROUND THE
MID-80S WITH LOW-LYING INTERIOR RIVER VALLEYS INTO THE UPPER-80S.

MIDWEEK:

A RETURN OF WARM-MUGGY CONDITIONS AHEAD OF A SWEEPING SYNOPTIC LOW
DISTURBANCE FROM THE N. INCREASING INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE ALONG
AND AHEAD. CONFIDENCE TOWARDS CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
FROM THE CIPS ANALOG GUIDANCE...ANALOGS DERIVED FROM THE 0Z GEFS
HAVE A 60% CHANCE OF ABOVE-AVERAGE PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NE-CONUS...AND NATURALLY WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED ENVIRONMENT...THE
THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

SHOULD THE TROUGHING PATTERN PERSIST AS A CONSENSUS OF DETERMINISTIC
SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THEN WE COULD BE LOOKING AT ROUNDS OF WET-WEATHER
ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. LOW CONFIDENCE. NO
CERTAINTY ON OUTCOMES. WILL MAINTAIN SEASONABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH-
OUT THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. SHOWERS LIKELY FOR
KACK...POSSIBLY REACHING THE VINEYARD. LOW PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS
FOR CAPE COD. AREAS OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN ANY SHOWERS/FOG.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING.

FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VFR. VRB WINDS WITH SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE COASTS. MORE PROMINENT S-
WINDS BY TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...
BUOY REPORTS CONTINUE TO SHOW 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER
WATERS...BUT MARGINAL. WE WILL KEEP SMALL CRAFTS UP THROUGH THE
EVENING FOR THOSE WATERS. SEAS BELOW 5 FEET FOR MOST OF OUR
WATERS. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST TO NORTH...BUT
REMAIN WELL BELOW 20 KNOTS.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER NEW ENGLAND. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

VARIABLE WINDS THROUGHOUT WITH SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE COASTS WILL
MAKE FOR GOOD BOATING WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY. MORE PROMINENT S-WINDS
ARE ANTICIPATED BY TUESDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 KTS. WILL HOLD SEAS
BELOW 5-FEET DESPITE ANTICIPATED SWELL FROM W-E S-OFFSHORE STORM
SYSTEMS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ255-
     256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WTB/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...WTB/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...WTB/SIPPRELL
MARINE...WTB/SIPPRELL




000
FXUS61 KBOX 022036
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
436 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT SHIFTS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. A MAINLY QUIET
AND DRY 4TH OF JULY HOLIDAY WEEKEND BENEATH HIGH PRESSURE IS
MAINTAINED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEREAFTER THE WEATHER TAKES A
TURN TOWARDS A WARM...MUGGY...WET-WEATHER PATTERN WITH CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY MIDWEEK POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO THE
FOLLOWING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

COLD FRONT LIES ALONG OUR SOUTH COAST. ONE AREA OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
IS PASSING SOUTH OF THE REGION. THE TRACK OF THIS WEATHER KEEPS
MOST OF IT OFFSHORE...BUT COULD CLIP THE ISLANDS DURING THIS
EVENING. OUTSIDE CHANCE OF SHOWERS REACHING THE SOUTH COAST
ESPECIALLY AROUND THE ELBOW OF CAPE COD.

PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES IS INDUCING A WAVE ALONG THE COLD FRONT THAT IS MOVING
ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
SUPPORTING UPPER JET WILL SWEEP ACROSS NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
FIRST PART OF TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT...BUT MOSTLY OFFSHORE. AGAIN...THE BEST
CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS THE ISLANDS WITH DIMINISHING CHANCE FARTHER
NORTH.

AS THE WAVE MOVES PAST THE SURFACE FLOW SHOULD TURN NORTHWEST AND
DRAW DRIER AIR FARTHER SOUTH. EXPECT DRY WEATHER FOR MOST AREAS
WITH DIMINISHING SKY COVER AFTER MIDNIGHT. DEW POINTS IN THE 50S
INLAND AND LOWER 60S ALONG THE COAST...WHICH PROVIDES A GOOD
ESTIMATE FOR OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE.
EXPECT CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE
LIGHT...SO LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE DAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW SEA
BREEZES TO FORM ALONG THE COASTS LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
MIXED LAYER IS FORECAST TO REACH 850 MB WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS AT
THAT LEVEL AROUND 10C. MIXING THIS TO THE SURFACE SHOULD SUPPORT
MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S...CALL IT 75 TO 80. COOLER VALUES WHERE
THE SEA BREEZE TAKES HOLD.

FRIDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST BUT REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER NEW ENGLAND.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND FORMS ANOTHER
WAVE ALONG THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH. THIS SHOULD GENERATE ANOTHER
AREA OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THAT APPROACH FROM OUR SOUTH OVERNIGHT.
WE WILL BRING SOME INCREASE IN SKY COVER DURING THE NIGHT WITH THE
MOST COVER ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. BUT THE DRY AIR IN PLACE AND THE
FOCUS OF SUPPORTING LIFT TO OUR SOUTH SHOULD KEEP THE WEATHER DRY.
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 50S...MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE 50S AND
AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - POSSIBLE SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR THE 4TH OF JULY?
 - DRY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...PERHAPS WARMER
 - RETURN OF WARM...MUGGY...AND WET-WEATHER BY MIDWEEK
 - CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN

*/ DISCUSSION...

AN EBB AND FLOW PATTERN. SHOULD A H5 LOW ANOMALY MAINTAIN ACROSS THE
N ATLANTIC WITH H5 RIDGING IN AND AROUND THE VICINITY OF THE W CONUS
THEN H5 TROUGHING WOULD BE PREFERRED THROUGH THE C-CONUS ALONG THE E-
PERIPHERY OF WHICH THE NE-CONUS WOULD EXPERIENCE AN ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN WHILE WOBBLING BETWEEN AIRMASSES. NOTHING IS CERTAIN AS THE
ATMOSPHERIC IS CHAOTIC...BUT INTERPRETING ANOMALIES AS OF LATE WHILE
INTERROGATING ENSEMBLE DATA LEADS TO CONFIDENCE THAT WE WILL NOT BE
SEEING HEAT-WAVES NOR 100-DEGREE TEMPERATURES ANYTIME SOON. A SWAY
OF TEMPERATURES NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WITH EXCHANGING AIRMASSES...
GOING FROM COOL AND DRY TO WARM AND MUGGY...A PATTERN AS OF LATE
THAT IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE. IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF WE DRAW
PARALLELS TO THE WEAK EL-NINO SUMMER OF 2004 WITH THE C-CONUS HAVING
WELL BELOW-NORMAL SUMMER TEMPERATURES WITH THE NE-CONUS HOLDING
NEAR- NORMAL.

LETS KEEP IT SIMPLE AND STRAIGHT-FORWARD WITH THE ABOVE DISCUSSION
IN MIND. A CONSENSUS OF FORECAST GUIDANCE IS WARRANTED AS THERE IS
OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY MIDWEEK THERE ARE
SIGNALS OF DISCREPANCY AS FORECAST GUIDANCE HANDLES THE RETURN OF
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. BEST TO LOOK AT CIPS ANALOGS TO SEE IF THERE IS ANY-
THING WE SHOULD BE CONCERNED ABOUT ON THE HORIZON.

*/ DAILIES...

JULY 4TH WEEKEND:

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY-CAPPING MECHANISM KEEPS US PERHAPS QUIET
AND DRY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD? YET THERE HAS BEEN AN INDICATION OF A
STOUT STRETCHED MID-LEVEL VORTEX THROUGH THE OVERALL TROUGH-PATTERN
FOR QUITE SOME TIME. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE RELATIVE STRENGTH OF
THE HIGH UP AGAINST THE FORCING MECHANISMS ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL
ENERGY ALOFT...WHETHER WE CAN GET SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY MAINLY PER
MID-LEVEL FORCING IN WHAT APPEARS TO BE A RATHER DRY ENVIRONMENT
WITH A MEASURE OF STABILITY. WILL KEEP WITH A MOSTLY-DRY FORECAST
FOR NOW BUT HOLDING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER S AND W PORTIONS OF S
NEW ENGLAND...WITH CHANCE POPS S OFFSHORE.

OTHERWISE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECKS ENCROACH FROM THE WEST. FLOW
LOOKS TO BE RATHER LIGHT...AND BENEATH HIGH PRESSURE MAY MAKE FOR
SOME SMOKEY FIREWORKS DISPLAYS. PERHAPS SOME FASTER FLOW MOVES IN BY
3Z AS THE 02.12Z NAM SUGGESTS BUT THINK ITS TOO ROBUST. WIND SPEEDS
THROUGH MIDNIGHT LOOK TO BE AROUND 5 MPH AND NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR AS
FROM WHAT DIRECTION. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT.

EARLY NEXT WEEK:

KEEPING IT DRY. HIGH PRESSURE SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION. CHILLY INTO
MONDAY MORNING BUT BEGIN TO SEE RETURN S-FLOW BY THE END OF THE DAY
GOING ON INTO TUESDAY. COULD SEE A WARMER-THAN-AVERAGE PATTERN AT
LEAST BY TUESDAY WITH H85 +14C AIR MOVING IN ALOFT. HIGHS AROUND THE
MID-80S WITH LOW-LYING INTERIOR RIVER VALLEYS INTO THE UPPER-80S.

MIDWEEK:

A RETURN OF WARM-MUGGY CONDITIONS AHEAD OF A SWEEPING SYNOPTIC LOW
DISTURBANCE FROM THE N. INCREASING INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE ALONG
AND AHEAD. CONFIDENCE TOWARDS CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
FROM THE CIPS ANALOG GUIDANCE...ANALOGS DERIVED FROM THE 0Z GEFS
HAVE A 60% CHANCE OF ABOVE-AVERAGE PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NE-CONUS...AND NATURALLY WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED ENVIRONMENT...THE
THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

SHOULD THE TROUGHING PATTERN PERSIST AS A CONSENSUS OF DETERMINISTIC
SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THEN WE COULD BE LOOKING AT ROUNDS OF WET-WEATHER
ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. LOW CONFIDENCE. NO
CERTAINTY ON OUTCOMES. WILL MAINTAIN SEASONABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH-
OUT THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. SHOWERS LIKELY FOR
KACK...POSSIBLY REACHING THE VINEYARD. LOW PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS
FOR CAPE COD. AREAS OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN ANY SHOWERS/FOG.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING.

FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VFR. VRB WINDS WITH SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE COASTS. MORE PROMINENT S-
WINDS BY TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...
BUOY REPORTS CONTINUE TO SHOW 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER
WATERS...BUT MARGINAL. WE WILL KEEP SMALL CRAFTS UP THROUGH THE
EVENING FOR THOSE WATERS. SEAS BELOW 5 FEET FOR MOST OF OUR
WATERS. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST TO NORTH...BUT
REMAIN WELL BELOW 20 KNOTS.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER NEW ENGLAND. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

VARIABLE WINDS THROUGHOUT WITH SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE COASTS WILL
MAKE FOR GOOD BOATING WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY. MORE PROMINENT S-WINDS
ARE ANTICIPATED BY TUESDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 KTS. WILL HOLD SEAS
BELOW 5-FEET DESPITE ANTICIPATED SWELL FROM W-E S-OFFSHORE STORM
SYSTEMS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ255-
     256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WTB/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...WTB/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...WTB/SIPPRELL
MARINE...WTB/SIPPRELL



000
FXUS61 KOKX 021959
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
359 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST ACROSS
THE AREA ON FRIDAY. A SECOND WEAK LOW WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH ON
INDEPENDENCE DAY. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE EAST TO END THE WEEK
WITH THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF LOWS TO PASS SOUTH TONIGHT ALONG A
STATIONARY FRONT. CANOPY OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL RESIDE
ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THE RAIN SHIELD WITH THE LOW WILL BE
PRIMARILY STAY SOUTH LI THIS EVENING...PERHAPS GRAZING THE SOUTH
FORK OF LI.

IN ADDITION...MARGINAL INSTABILITY ACROSS THE INTERIOR MAY RESULT
IN AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS
THOUGH IS SEEMING LESS LIKELY AS THE AIRMASS HAS ONLY BECOME
WEAKLY UNSTABLE WITH AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS ALREADY BEING MET. LATEST
SPC MESOANALYSIS HAS NE NJ AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY WITH CAPES
OF 100-250 J/KG.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN THE INTERIOR...TO THE
LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE. THIS IS ACTUALLY SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SHORT WAVE RIDGING ON FRI WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO BUILD EAST THROUGH FRI NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT PIECE OF
SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE LATTER OF
WHICH WILL SEND A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES BY DAYBREAK SAT.

FRI INTO FRI NIGHT WILL BE DRY WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S...AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. THIS IS
AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM
THE SW FRI NIGHT.

THERE IS MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON FRI.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECAST FOR THE 4TH OF JULY IS TRICKY WITH MODELS IN DISAGREEMENT
REGARDING OUR CHANCES OF RAINFALL. FOR THE 12Z SUITE...NAM IS DRY
DURING THE DAY AND NIGHT...WITH GFS/ECMWF/CMC SHOWING SOME QPF
OUTPUT. MOST OF THE MODELS WOULD IMPLY THAT THE MORNING HOURS ARE
MORE LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY AND ANY RAINFALL WOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE SOUTH. STILL...WILL BE KEEPING
AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES FOR THE
MORNING. FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES
AND COULD TAP INTO ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM FOR MAINLY THE NW ZONES. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
SHOWER FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES DUE TO THE PROXIMITY TO THE OFFSHORE
LOW. IN ANY CASE...THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A WASHOUT...BUT THE
CHANCES OF A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY DOESN`T LOOK TOO HIGH AT THIS POINT.
WENT SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN A MAV/NAM MOS BLEND FOR HIGH TEMPS.

SUNDAY ON THE OTHER HAND LOOKS LIKE IT WILL FEATURE A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE...BUT THERE
COULD BE SOME CLOUD BUILDUP IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE EASTERN ZONES
AS THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS CYCLONIC. THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN AT LEAST
LOOKS TOO DRY FOR A MENTION OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 80S.

REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD PROBABLY REMAINS DRY FOR THE MOST PART
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. ECMWF REMAINS A QUICK OUTLIER WITH
BRINGING IN RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH STARTING LATE IN THE DAY
MONDAY. WILL GO WITH DRY WEATHER FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT LEAVE IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE GRIDS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHEN THE OTHER GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SOME
SHOWERS COULD OCCUR. HIGHS IN THE 80S THROUGH THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH
WITH THE CLOUD COVER...THURSDAY IS FORECAST TO BE ONLY AROUND 80.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTH...AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
PASS TO THE SOUTH INTO FRIDAY.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SEABREEZE AT ALL TERMINALS BY 21Z...EXCEPT AT KSWF WHERE FLOW WILL
REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WINDS AGAIN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THROUGHOUT EARLY THIS EVENING. NNE THEN NE WINDS UNDER 10 KT DEVELOP
AT KJFK/KLGA/KEWR/KBDR/KISP/KGON EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SEABREEZE
SHOULD AGAIN DEVELOP AT CT TERMINALS/KJFK LATE FRIDAY MORNING- EARLY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CHANCE OF OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 15 KT
WITH SEABREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. LESS THAN A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM THROUGH 00Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: LESS THAN A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM THROUGH 00Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
THROUGH 00Z.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SEABREEZE MAY BE +/- 1 HOUR. 10
PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM THROUGH 00Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SEABREEZE MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS. 10
PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM THROUGH 00Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: LESS THAN A 10 PERCENT OR LESS CHANCE OF
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM THROUGH 00Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...VFR. SEABREEZE LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON.
.SATURDAY...MOST LIKELY VFR...WITH A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN WITH MVFR OR
LOWER CONDITIONS.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.TUESDAY...MOST LIKELY VFR...WITH VERY LOW CHANCE MVFR OR LOWER.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH FRI NIGHT AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES
SOUTH OF THE WATERS TONIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO NORTH ON
FRI.

WINDS AND SEAS LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE...RESULTING
IN LIGHT WINDS. A SWELL COULD POTENTIALLY BRING OCEAN SEAS CLOSE
TO 5 FT DURING SATURDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS LOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A RECENT FULL MOON...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 3/4 TO 1 1/2
FT ARE NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED
AT THE PEAK OF THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDES THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MINOR
BENCHMARKS COULD BRIEFLY BE TOUCHED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF
NASSAU COUNTY THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JC/DW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...JC/DW
HYDROLOGY...JC/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...DW




000
FXUS61 KOKX 021959
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
359 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST ACROSS
THE AREA ON FRIDAY. A SECOND WEAK LOW WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH ON
INDEPENDENCE DAY. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE EAST TO END THE WEEK
WITH THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF LOWS TO PASS SOUTH TONIGHT ALONG A
STATIONARY FRONT. CANOPY OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL RESIDE
ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THE RAIN SHIELD WITH THE LOW WILL BE
PRIMARILY STAY SOUTH LI THIS EVENING...PERHAPS GRAZING THE SOUTH
FORK OF LI.

IN ADDITION...MARGINAL INSTABILITY ACROSS THE INTERIOR MAY RESULT
IN AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS
THOUGH IS SEEMING LESS LIKELY AS THE AIRMASS HAS ONLY BECOME
WEAKLY UNSTABLE WITH AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS ALREADY BEING MET. LATEST
SPC MESOANALYSIS HAS NE NJ AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY WITH CAPES
OF 100-250 J/KG.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN THE INTERIOR...TO THE
LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE. THIS IS ACTUALLY SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SHORT WAVE RIDGING ON FRI WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO BUILD EAST THROUGH FRI NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT PIECE OF
SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE LATTER OF
WHICH WILL SEND A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES BY DAYBREAK SAT.

FRI INTO FRI NIGHT WILL BE DRY WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S...AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. THIS IS
AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM
THE SW FRI NIGHT.

THERE IS MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON FRI.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECAST FOR THE 4TH OF JULY IS TRICKY WITH MODELS IN DISAGREEMENT
REGARDING OUR CHANCES OF RAINFALL. FOR THE 12Z SUITE...NAM IS DRY
DURING THE DAY AND NIGHT...WITH GFS/ECMWF/CMC SHOWING SOME QPF
OUTPUT. MOST OF THE MODELS WOULD IMPLY THAT THE MORNING HOURS ARE
MORE LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY AND ANY RAINFALL WOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE SOUTH. STILL...WILL BE KEEPING
AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES FOR THE
MORNING. FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES
AND COULD TAP INTO ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM FOR MAINLY THE NW ZONES. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
SHOWER FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES DUE TO THE PROXIMITY TO THE OFFSHORE
LOW. IN ANY CASE...THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A WASHOUT...BUT THE
CHANCES OF A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY DOESN`T LOOK TOO HIGH AT THIS POINT.
WENT SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN A MAV/NAM MOS BLEND FOR HIGH TEMPS.

SUNDAY ON THE OTHER HAND LOOKS LIKE IT WILL FEATURE A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE...BUT THERE
COULD BE SOME CLOUD BUILDUP IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE EASTERN ZONES
AS THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS CYCLONIC. THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN AT LEAST
LOOKS TOO DRY FOR A MENTION OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 80S.

REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD PROBABLY REMAINS DRY FOR THE MOST PART
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. ECMWF REMAINS A QUICK OUTLIER WITH
BRINGING IN RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH STARTING LATE IN THE DAY
MONDAY. WILL GO WITH DRY WEATHER FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT LEAVE IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE GRIDS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHEN THE OTHER GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SOME
SHOWERS COULD OCCUR. HIGHS IN THE 80S THROUGH THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH
WITH THE CLOUD COVER...THURSDAY IS FORECAST TO BE ONLY AROUND 80.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTH...AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
PASS TO THE SOUTH INTO FRIDAY.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SEABREEZE AT ALL TERMINALS BY 21Z...EXCEPT AT KSWF WHERE FLOW WILL
REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WINDS AGAIN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THROUGHOUT EARLY THIS EVENING. NNE THEN NE WINDS UNDER 10 KT DEVELOP
AT KJFK/KLGA/KEWR/KBDR/KISP/KGON EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SEABREEZE
SHOULD AGAIN DEVELOP AT CT TERMINALS/KJFK LATE FRIDAY MORNING- EARLY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CHANCE OF OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 15 KT
WITH SEABREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. LESS THAN A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM THROUGH 00Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: LESS THAN A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM THROUGH 00Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
THROUGH 00Z.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SEABREEZE MAY BE +/- 1 HOUR. 10
PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM THROUGH 00Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SEABREEZE MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS. 10
PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM THROUGH 00Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: LESS THAN A 10 PERCENT OR LESS CHANCE OF
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM THROUGH 00Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...VFR. SEABREEZE LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON.
.SATURDAY...MOST LIKELY VFR...WITH A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN WITH MVFR OR
LOWER CONDITIONS.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.TUESDAY...MOST LIKELY VFR...WITH VERY LOW CHANCE MVFR OR LOWER.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH FRI NIGHT AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES
SOUTH OF THE WATERS TONIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO NORTH ON
FRI.

WINDS AND SEAS LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE...RESULTING
IN LIGHT WINDS. A SWELL COULD POTENTIALLY BRING OCEAN SEAS CLOSE
TO 5 FT DURING SATURDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS LOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A RECENT FULL MOON...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 3/4 TO 1 1/2
FT ARE NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED
AT THE PEAK OF THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDES THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MINOR
BENCHMARKS COULD BRIEFLY BE TOUCHED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF
NASSAU COUNTY THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JC/DW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...JC/DW
HYDROLOGY...JC/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...DW



000
FXUS61 KBOX 021919
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
319 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT SHIFTS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. DRY WEATHER
PREVAILS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH GRADUALLY WARMING CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT LIES ALONG OUR SOUTH COAST. ONE AREA OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
IS PASSING SOUTH OF THE REGION. THE TRACK OF THIS WEATHER KEEPS
MOST OF IT OFFSHORE...BUT COULD CLIP THE ISLANDS DURING THIS
EVENING. OUTSIDE CHANCE OF SHOWERS REACHING THE SOUTH COAST
ESPECIALLY AROUND THE ELBOW OF CAPE COD.

PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES IS INDUCING A WAVE ALONG THE COLD FRONT THAT IS MOVING
ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
SUPPORTING UPPER JET WILL SWEEP ACROSS NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
FIRST PART OF TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT...BUT MOSTLY OFFSHORE. AGAIN...THE BEST
CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS THE ISLANDS WITH DIMINISHING CHANCE FARTHER
NORTH.

AS THE WAVE MOVES PAST THE SURFACE FLOW SHOULD TURN NORTHWEST AND
DRAW DRIER AIR FARTHER SOUTH. EXPECT DRY WEATHER FOR MOST AREAS
WITH DIMINISHING SKY COVER AFTER MIDNIGHT. DEW POINTS IN THE 50S
INLAND AND LOWER 60S ALONG THE COAST...WHICH PROVIDES A GOOD
ESTIMATE FOR OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE.
EXPECT CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE
LIGHT...SO LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE DAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW SEA
BREEZES TO FORM ALONG THE COASTS LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
MIXED LAYER IS FORECAST TO REACH 850 MB WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS AT
THAT LEVEL AROUND 10C. MIXING THIS TO THE SURFACE SHOULD SUPPORT
MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S...CALL IT 75 TO 80. COOLER VALUES WHERE
THE SEA BREEZE TAKES HOLD.

FRIDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST BUT REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER NEW ENGLAND.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND FORMS ANOTHER
WAVE ALONG THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH. THIS SHOULD GENERATE ANOTHER
AREA OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THAT APPROACH FROM OUR SOUTH OVERNIGHT.
WE WILL BRING SOME INCREASE IN SKY COVER DURING THE NIGHT WITH THE
MOST COVER ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. BUT THE DRY AIR IN PLACE AND THE
FOCUS OF SUPPORTING LIFT TO OUR SOUTH SHOULD KEEP THE WEATHER DRY.
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 50S...MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE 50S AND
AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

 * LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER ON SATURDAY.
 * GRADUALLY WARMING CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...AMPLIFIED BLOCKING FLOW PATTERN
CONTINUES MAINLY ACROSS THE ERN PACIFIC AND WRN ATLANTIC UNDER
STRONG RIDGING...ESPECIALLY IN THE PACIFIC WHERE THE EPO IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO DIVE STRONGLY NEGATIVE. THIS LEAVES MUCH
OF THE CONUS IN A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW REGIME. NEARLY...BECAUSE VERY
WEAK TROUGHING IS EVIDENT PARTICULARLY AS NRN STREAM ENERGY MOVES
SHIFTS THROUGH HE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE MEAN JET. HOWEVER...UNTIL
ABOUT THE MID PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW
SRN NEW ENGLAND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WRN ATLANTIC RIDGING.
SO EVEN WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE THIS WEEKEND...IT LOOKS TO
MOVE THROUGH WITH LITTLE FANFARE AS SOUNDINGS SHOW DRY/SUBSIDENCE
IN PLACE. WITH MODERATE AGREEMENT BETWEEN OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF
/SOME SMALLER SCALE DIFFERENCES EXIST/ A BLEND WILL BE USED
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. BEYOND THIS...THERE IS SOME SIGNIFICANT
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING A SHIFT AS THE NRN STREAM VORTEX REGAINS
CONTROL ACROSS THE AREA...LEADING TO A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN.

DETAILS...

SAT INTO SAT NIGHT...WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING E FROM THE
GREAT LAKES AND A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE S...WILL LIKELY
SEE CYCLOGENESIS OF A WEAK LOW PRES CENTER WELL TO THE S. THIS
WILL ALSO INTRODUCE RIDGE OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR WHICH LOOKS TO
REMAIN TO THE W. FOR NOW...THE BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO REMAIN NEAR
THE S COAST...CLOSER TO THE DEVELOPING LOW PRES. HOWEVER...COLUMN
REMAINS MOSTLY DRY AND SUGGESTS SOME INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE MOVING
E OF THE REGION. SO SUSPECT ONLY A FEW SPOT SHOWERS TO CONTEND
WITH AT MOST. TEMPS AT H85 ARE AROUND +10C...SO SUSPECT 2M TEMPS
TO REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

SUN INTO TUE...AS STRONG NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN
ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA...THE WARM ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO RIDGE
AMPLIFICATION OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL LEAD
TO FAIRLY STRONG HIGH PRES DEVELOPMENT WHICH MAY LOCK IN PLACE FOR
A FEW DAYS OF DRY WX. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
MODERATING MID LVL TEMPS AND RISING HUMIDITY PARTICULARLY MON AND
TUE. H85 TEMPS INCREASE TO AN AVERAGE OF +12C MON...THEN CLOSER TO
+14C BY TUE. THEREFORE...AWAY FROM COASTLINES /WHERE SEA BREEZES
WILL LIMIT WARMING/ EXPECT TEMPS WARMER THAN EARLY JULY NORMALS.

MID-LATE NEXT WEEK...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...BECAUSE THIS IS SUCH A
ROBUST SHORTWAVE/CUTOFF THAT MODELS ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP...THERE
IS LITTLE AGREEMENT BETWEEN THEM REGARDING TIMING/STRENGTH...AND
ENSEMBLES ARE LITTLE HELP. HOWEVER...WITH FAIRLY WARM/HUMID
CONDITIONS AND AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
TRANSITION TO A WETTER AND MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN TOWARD THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. SHOWERS LIKELY FOR
KACK...POSSIBLY REACHING THE VINEYARD. LOW PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS
FOR CAPE COD. AREAS OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN ANY SHOWERS/FOG.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING.

FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. WEAK SEA BREEZES LIKELY MOST DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TONIGHT...
BUOY REPORTS CONTINUE TO SHOW 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER
WATERS...BUT MARGINAL. WE WILL KEEP SMALL CRAFTS UP THROUGH THE
EVENING FOR THOSE WATERS. SEAS BELOW 5 FEET FOR MOST OF OUR
WATERS. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST TO NORTH...BUT
REMAIN WELL BELOW 20 KNOTS.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER NEW ENGLAND. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. A WEEK LOW PRES WILL
PASS WELL S OF THE WATERS. THIS MAY LEAD TO E FLOW REACHING
20-25 KT ON THE SRN WATERS AND A BUILDING SWELL WHICH COULD REACH
5-6 FT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED. OTHERWISE...SOME
SHOWERS AND FOG AT TIMES MAY LEAD TO REDUCED VSBYS...MAINLY ON THE
SRN WATERS AS WELL.

SUN AN MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES WILL MOVE OVER THE WATERS
ALLOWING AND REMNANT SWELL TO SUBSIDE. AFTER WHICH QUIET BOATING
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ255-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...WTB/DOODY
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...WTB/DOODY
MARINE...WTB/DOODY



000
FXUS61 KBOX 021919
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
319 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT SHIFTS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. DRY WEATHER
PREVAILS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH GRADUALLY WARMING CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT LIES ALONG OUR SOUTH COAST. ONE AREA OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
IS PASSING SOUTH OF THE REGION. THE TRACK OF THIS WEATHER KEEPS
MOST OF IT OFFSHORE...BUT COULD CLIP THE ISLANDS DURING THIS
EVENING. OUTSIDE CHANCE OF SHOWERS REACHING THE SOUTH COAST
ESPECIALLY AROUND THE ELBOW OF CAPE COD.

PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES IS INDUCING A WAVE ALONG THE COLD FRONT THAT IS MOVING
ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
SUPPORTING UPPER JET WILL SWEEP ACROSS NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
FIRST PART OF TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT...BUT MOSTLY OFFSHORE. AGAIN...THE BEST
CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS THE ISLANDS WITH DIMINISHING CHANCE FARTHER
NORTH.

AS THE WAVE MOVES PAST THE SURFACE FLOW SHOULD TURN NORTHWEST AND
DRAW DRIER AIR FARTHER SOUTH. EXPECT DRY WEATHER FOR MOST AREAS
WITH DIMINISHING SKY COVER AFTER MIDNIGHT. DEW POINTS IN THE 50S
INLAND AND LOWER 60S ALONG THE COAST...WHICH PROVIDES A GOOD
ESTIMATE FOR OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE.
EXPECT CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE
LIGHT...SO LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE DAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW SEA
BREEZES TO FORM ALONG THE COASTS LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
MIXED LAYER IS FORECAST TO REACH 850 MB WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS AT
THAT LEVEL AROUND 10C. MIXING THIS TO THE SURFACE SHOULD SUPPORT
MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S...CALL IT 75 TO 80. COOLER VALUES WHERE
THE SEA BREEZE TAKES HOLD.

FRIDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST BUT REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER NEW ENGLAND.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND FORMS ANOTHER
WAVE ALONG THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH. THIS SHOULD GENERATE ANOTHER
AREA OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THAT APPROACH FROM OUR SOUTH OVERNIGHT.
WE WILL BRING SOME INCREASE IN SKY COVER DURING THE NIGHT WITH THE
MOST COVER ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. BUT THE DRY AIR IN PLACE AND THE
FOCUS OF SUPPORTING LIFT TO OUR SOUTH SHOULD KEEP THE WEATHER DRY.
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 50S...MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE 50S AND
AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

 * LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER ON SATURDAY.
 * GRADUALLY WARMING CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...AMPLIFIED BLOCKING FLOW PATTERN
CONTINUES MAINLY ACROSS THE ERN PACIFIC AND WRN ATLANTIC UNDER
STRONG RIDGING...ESPECIALLY IN THE PACIFIC WHERE THE EPO IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO DIVE STRONGLY NEGATIVE. THIS LEAVES MUCH
OF THE CONUS IN A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW REGIME. NEARLY...BECAUSE VERY
WEAK TROUGHING IS EVIDENT PARTICULARLY AS NRN STREAM ENERGY MOVES
SHIFTS THROUGH HE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE MEAN JET. HOWEVER...UNTIL
ABOUT THE MID PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW
SRN NEW ENGLAND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WRN ATLANTIC RIDGING.
SO EVEN WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE THIS WEEKEND...IT LOOKS TO
MOVE THROUGH WITH LITTLE FANFARE AS SOUNDINGS SHOW DRY/SUBSIDENCE
IN PLACE. WITH MODERATE AGREEMENT BETWEEN OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF
/SOME SMALLER SCALE DIFFERENCES EXIST/ A BLEND WILL BE USED
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. BEYOND THIS...THERE IS SOME SIGNIFICANT
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING A SHIFT AS THE NRN STREAM VORTEX REGAINS
CONTROL ACROSS THE AREA...LEADING TO A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN.

DETAILS...

SAT INTO SAT NIGHT...WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING E FROM THE
GREAT LAKES AND A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE S...WILL LIKELY
SEE CYCLOGENESIS OF A WEAK LOW PRES CENTER WELL TO THE S. THIS
WILL ALSO INTRODUCE RIDGE OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR WHICH LOOKS TO
REMAIN TO THE W. FOR NOW...THE BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO REMAIN NEAR
THE S COAST...CLOSER TO THE DEVELOPING LOW PRES. HOWEVER...COLUMN
REMAINS MOSTLY DRY AND SUGGESTS SOME INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE MOVING
E OF THE REGION. SO SUSPECT ONLY A FEW SPOT SHOWERS TO CONTEND
WITH AT MOST. TEMPS AT H85 ARE AROUND +10C...SO SUSPECT 2M TEMPS
TO REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

SUN INTO TUE...AS STRONG NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN
ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA...THE WARM ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO RIDGE
AMPLIFICATION OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL LEAD
TO FAIRLY STRONG HIGH PRES DEVELOPMENT WHICH MAY LOCK IN PLACE FOR
A FEW DAYS OF DRY WX. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
MODERATING MID LVL TEMPS AND RISING HUMIDITY PARTICULARLY MON AND
TUE. H85 TEMPS INCREASE TO AN AVERAGE OF +12C MON...THEN CLOSER TO
+14C BY TUE. THEREFORE...AWAY FROM COASTLINES /WHERE SEA BREEZES
WILL LIMIT WARMING/ EXPECT TEMPS WARMER THAN EARLY JULY NORMALS.

MID-LATE NEXT WEEK...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...BECAUSE THIS IS SUCH A
ROBUST SHORTWAVE/CUTOFF THAT MODELS ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP...THERE
IS LITTLE AGREEMENT BETWEEN THEM REGARDING TIMING/STRENGTH...AND
ENSEMBLES ARE LITTLE HELP. HOWEVER...WITH FAIRLY WARM/HUMID
CONDITIONS AND AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
TRANSITION TO A WETTER AND MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN TOWARD THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. SHOWERS LIKELY FOR
KACK...POSSIBLY REACHING THE VINEYARD. LOW PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS
FOR CAPE COD. AREAS OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN ANY SHOWERS/FOG.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING.

FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. WEAK SEA BREEZES LIKELY MOST DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TONIGHT...
BUOY REPORTS CONTINUE TO SHOW 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER
WATERS...BUT MARGINAL. WE WILL KEEP SMALL CRAFTS UP THROUGH THE
EVENING FOR THOSE WATERS. SEAS BELOW 5 FEET FOR MOST OF OUR
WATERS. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST TO NORTH...BUT
REMAIN WELL BELOW 20 KNOTS.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER NEW ENGLAND. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. A WEEK LOW PRES WILL
PASS WELL S OF THE WATERS. THIS MAY LEAD TO E FLOW REACHING
20-25 KT ON THE SRN WATERS AND A BUILDING SWELL WHICH COULD REACH
5-6 FT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED. OTHERWISE...SOME
SHOWERS AND FOG AT TIMES MAY LEAD TO REDUCED VSBYS...MAINLY ON THE
SRN WATERS AS WELL.

SUN AN MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES WILL MOVE OVER THE WATERS
ALLOWING AND REMNANT SWELL TO SUBSIDE. AFTER WHICH QUIET BOATING
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ255-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...WTB/DOODY
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...WTB/DOODY
MARINE...WTB/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KOKX 021750
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
150 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL LINGER TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD IN FROM TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL
PASS TO THE SOUTH ON INDEPENDENCE DAY. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HAVE ADDED RAIN SHOWERS TO MAINLY THE OFFSHORE WATERS...BUT THEY
MAY GRAZE THE SOUTH FORK OF LI LATE THIS AFT/EARLY EVE.

ISOLATED CONVECTION REMAINS A POSSIBILITY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE INTERIOR. CAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG WITH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AROUND
40 KT. LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE DRY AIR IN THE MIXED LAYER AND LACK
OF A STRONG TRIGGER. TRIGGER LOOKS TO BE A TROUGH JUST NORTH AND
WEST OF THE NYC METRO.

NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF HIGH CLOUDS IN ASSOC WITH WEAK LOW PRES OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC WILL PRODUCE PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ACROSS
LI...WITH MORE SUN TO THE NORTH. HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S.

COASTAL SEA BREEZES SHOULD DEVELOP...AND WILL BE WEAKER THAN THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH TEMPS INLAND.

THERE IS A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK AT THE OCEAN BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP IN/NEAR NE NJ COULD DRIFT E
TOWARD NYC NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD START TO BUILD FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT
INTO FRI...WITH N-NE FLOW AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...THEN WEAK
COASTAL SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE A COOLER LOWER/MID 60S IN MOST PLACES...AND
55-60 ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS WELL NORTH/WEST OF NYC.
HIGHS ON FRI UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER
STILL...MAINLY 75-80.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE 00Z MODEL SUITE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST WEAK LOW PRES WILL TRACK
OFF THE DELMARVA AND OUT TO SEA ON THE 4TH. THIS GIVES THE CWA A
GLANCING BLOW AT BEST...AND MAY ONLY RESULT IN SOME EXTRA CLOUDS
ESPECIALLY LONG ISLAND INTO THE CITY AND NJ. INCLUDED SOME LOW
POPS...MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE...FOR MOST OF THE AREA. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED HOWEVER THAT AT THIS POINT ANY RAIN LOOKS LIGHT AND SPOTTY
AT BEST. THEREAFTER...HI PRES BUILDS IN AND AS A RESULT HAVE GONE
WITH A FAIR FORECAST THRU WED. THE ECMWF DOES HINT AT SOME RAIN
TUE AS RESIDUAL CONVECTION GETS ENTRAINED IN THE UPR RIDGE. THIS
APPEARS TO BE A ROGUE SOLUTION AT THIS TIME HOWEVER SO HAVE KEPT
POPS BELOW 15. DESPITE A DRY AIR MASS SUN- WED WITH PW GENERALLY
AT OR BELOW 1 INCH...THE HUMIDITY WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY
LOW...ESPECIALLY AS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK ARRIVES...AS PERSISTENT
SLY COMPONENT FLOW DRAWS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE CWA FROM THE
ATLANTIC. THIS COULD SET THE STAGE FOR SOME BOUTS OF MORNING FOG
IF WINDS ARE LIGHT ENOUGH. TEMPS THRU THE LONG TERM CLOSE TO THE
GMOS25 AND MAINLY AT OR BELOW CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR NORTH...AS WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE PASS TO OUR SOUTH INTO FRIDAY.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE
AT ALL TERMINALS MID-LATE AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE AT
ANY GIVEN TERMINAL IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM IS AT LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY/NE NJ TERMINALS.

SEABREEZE AT ALL TERMINALS BY 20Z...EXCEPT AT KSWF WHERE FLOW WILL
REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WINDS AGAIN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THROUGHOUT EARLY THIS EVENING. NNE THEN NE WINDS UNDER 10 KT
DEVELOP AT KJFK/KLGA/KEWR/KBDR/KISP/KGON EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
SEABREEZE SHOULD AGAIN DEVELOP AT CT TERMINALS/KJFK LATE FRIDAY
MORNING- EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CHANCE OF OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 15 KT
WITH SEABREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. 10 PERCENT OR LESS CHANCE OF
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM THROUGH 00Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SEABREEZE MAY BE +/- 1 HOUR. 10
PERCENT OR LESS CHANCE OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM THROUGH 00Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
THROUGH 00Z.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SEABREEZE MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS.
20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM THROUGH 00Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SEABREEZE MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS.
20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM THROUGH 00Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SEABREEZE MAY BE +/- 1 HOUR. 10
PERCENT OR LESS CHANCE OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM THROUGH 00Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...VFR. SEABREEZE LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON.
.SATURDAY...MOST LIKELY VFR...WITH A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN WITH MVFR
OR LOWER CONDITIONS.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.TUESDAY...MOST LIKELY VFR...WITH VERY LOW CHANCE MVFR OR LOWER.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA HAS BEEN CANCELED FROM MORICHES TO MONTAUK POINT AS SEAS HAVE
DROPPED TO 4 FT AT THE OFFSHORE BUOYS.

SEAS WILL GET CLOSE TO 5 FT ON THE OCEAN ON SAT AS LOW PRES PASSES
TO THE S. ELSEWHERE...NE WINDS SHOULD BE IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL THEN LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS SUN-WED
AS A BROAD AREA OF HI PRES SETTLES IN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A FULL MOON...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 3/4 TO 1 1/2 FT ARE
NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED AT THE
PEAK OF THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDES THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
MINOR BENCHMARKS COULD BRIEFLY BE TOUCHED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE
BAYS OF NASSAU COUNTY THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JMC/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...DW/JMC/GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...JMC/GOODMAN
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...DW/GOODMAN/JMC
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/JMC
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...GOODMAN



000
FXUS61 KOKX 021750
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
150 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL LINGER TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD IN FROM TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL
PASS TO THE SOUTH ON INDEPENDENCE DAY. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HAVE ADDED RAIN SHOWERS TO MAINLY THE OFFSHORE WATERS...BUT THEY
MAY GRAZE THE SOUTH FORK OF LI LATE THIS AFT/EARLY EVE.

ISOLATED CONVECTION REMAINS A POSSIBILITY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE INTERIOR. CAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG WITH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AROUND
40 KT. LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE DRY AIR IN THE MIXED LAYER AND LACK
OF A STRONG TRIGGER. TRIGGER LOOKS TO BE A TROUGH JUST NORTH AND
WEST OF THE NYC METRO.

NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF HIGH CLOUDS IN ASSOC WITH WEAK LOW PRES OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC WILL PRODUCE PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ACROSS
LI...WITH MORE SUN TO THE NORTH. HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S.

COASTAL SEA BREEZES SHOULD DEVELOP...AND WILL BE WEAKER THAN THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH TEMPS INLAND.

THERE IS A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK AT THE OCEAN BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP IN/NEAR NE NJ COULD DRIFT E
TOWARD NYC NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD START TO BUILD FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT
INTO FRI...WITH N-NE FLOW AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...THEN WEAK
COASTAL SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE A COOLER LOWER/MID 60S IN MOST PLACES...AND
55-60 ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS WELL NORTH/WEST OF NYC.
HIGHS ON FRI UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER
STILL...MAINLY 75-80.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE 00Z MODEL SUITE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST WEAK LOW PRES WILL TRACK
OFF THE DELMARVA AND OUT TO SEA ON THE 4TH. THIS GIVES THE CWA A
GLANCING BLOW AT BEST...AND MAY ONLY RESULT IN SOME EXTRA CLOUDS
ESPECIALLY LONG ISLAND INTO THE CITY AND NJ. INCLUDED SOME LOW
POPS...MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE...FOR MOST OF THE AREA. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED HOWEVER THAT AT THIS POINT ANY RAIN LOOKS LIGHT AND SPOTTY
AT BEST. THEREAFTER...HI PRES BUILDS IN AND AS A RESULT HAVE GONE
WITH A FAIR FORECAST THRU WED. THE ECMWF DOES HINT AT SOME RAIN
TUE AS RESIDUAL CONVECTION GETS ENTRAINED IN THE UPR RIDGE. THIS
APPEARS TO BE A ROGUE SOLUTION AT THIS TIME HOWEVER SO HAVE KEPT
POPS BELOW 15. DESPITE A DRY AIR MASS SUN- WED WITH PW GENERALLY
AT OR BELOW 1 INCH...THE HUMIDITY WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY
LOW...ESPECIALLY AS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK ARRIVES...AS PERSISTENT
SLY COMPONENT FLOW DRAWS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE CWA FROM THE
ATLANTIC. THIS COULD SET THE STAGE FOR SOME BOUTS OF MORNING FOG
IF WINDS ARE LIGHT ENOUGH. TEMPS THRU THE LONG TERM CLOSE TO THE
GMOS25 AND MAINLY AT OR BELOW CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR NORTH...AS WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE PASS TO OUR SOUTH INTO FRIDAY.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE
AT ALL TERMINALS MID-LATE AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE AT
ANY GIVEN TERMINAL IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM IS AT LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY/NE NJ TERMINALS.

SEABREEZE AT ALL TERMINALS BY 20Z...EXCEPT AT KSWF WHERE FLOW WILL
REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WINDS AGAIN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THROUGHOUT EARLY THIS EVENING. NNE THEN NE WINDS UNDER 10 KT
DEVELOP AT KJFK/KLGA/KEWR/KBDR/KISP/KGON EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
SEABREEZE SHOULD AGAIN DEVELOP AT CT TERMINALS/KJFK LATE FRIDAY
MORNING- EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CHANCE OF OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 15 KT
WITH SEABREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. 10 PERCENT OR LESS CHANCE OF
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM THROUGH 00Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SEABREEZE MAY BE +/- 1 HOUR. 10
PERCENT OR LESS CHANCE OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM THROUGH 00Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
THROUGH 00Z.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SEABREEZE MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS.
20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM THROUGH 00Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SEABREEZE MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS.
20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM THROUGH 00Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SEABREEZE MAY BE +/- 1 HOUR. 10
PERCENT OR LESS CHANCE OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM THROUGH 00Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...VFR. SEABREEZE LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON.
.SATURDAY...MOST LIKELY VFR...WITH A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN WITH MVFR
OR LOWER CONDITIONS.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.TUESDAY...MOST LIKELY VFR...WITH VERY LOW CHANCE MVFR OR LOWER.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA HAS BEEN CANCELED FROM MORICHES TO MONTAUK POINT AS SEAS HAVE
DROPPED TO 4 FT AT THE OFFSHORE BUOYS.

SEAS WILL GET CLOSE TO 5 FT ON THE OCEAN ON SAT AS LOW PRES PASSES
TO THE S. ELSEWHERE...NE WINDS SHOULD BE IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL THEN LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS SUN-WED
AS A BROAD AREA OF HI PRES SETTLES IN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A FULL MOON...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 3/4 TO 1 1/2 FT ARE
NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED AT THE
PEAK OF THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDES THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
MINOR BENCHMARKS COULD BRIEFLY BE TOUCHED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE
BAYS OF NASSAU COUNTY THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JMC/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...DW/JMC/GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...JMC/GOODMAN
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...DW/GOODMAN/JMC
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/JMC
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...GOODMAN




000
FXUS61 KALY 021744
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
144 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT
LAKES THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD BRING GENERALLY DRY WEATHER ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND 5 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COULD BRING AN
AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ON SATURDAY TO A FEW AREAS MAINLY
NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER WITH
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 145 PM EDT...A PLEASANT JULY AFTERNOON IS OCCURRING ACROSS
THE REGION WITH COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY ALONG WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. ONLY MAJOR CHANGE TO THIS UPDATE WAS TO
ACCOUNT FOR LATEST HOURLY OBSERVATIONS...AND TWEAKING OF HIGH
TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES DUE TO CURRENT CLOUD COVER
LIMITING MIXING POTENTIAL.

INITIALLY THIS AFTERNOON...MUCH OF THE REGION WILL EXPERIENCE PARTLY
CLOUDY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH A COUPLE OF ISOLATED POPUP
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND MID-
HUDSON VALLEY. THESE CLOUDS AND ANY POPUP SHOWERS/SPRINKLES THAT
FORM ARE IN RESPONSE TO ONE LAST PIECE OF WEAK UPPER-LEVEL
ENERGY/COLD POOL ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE BASE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH THAT IS SWINGING ACROSS NEW YORK.

MOST AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY HOWEVER...AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES IN AT THE SURFACE FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. IN
FACT...THIS RIDGING FROM THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL
DECREASE OF CLOUD COVER FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID AND
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION SEEING MOSTLY SUNNY/MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS BY SUNSET.
FURTHER SOUTH...SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY WITH CLOUD COVER
LIKELY LINGERING AFTER SUNSET ASSOCIATED WITH THE PROXIMITY TO
LINGERING EFFECTS FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
SPILLING NORTHWARD FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION.

HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND HIGH PEAKS ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT AND THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS...WITH MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE REST OF THE
REGION EXCEPT ACROSS THE LOWER MID-HUDSON VALLEY AND LITCHFIELD
HILLS WHERE HIGHS MAY REACH INTO THE 80-82 RANGE. WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE WESTERLY GENERALLY AROUND 5-15 MPH WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY...EXCEPT FOR OCCASIONAL
HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS ON FRIDAY...AS A
WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION. TEMPS
SHOULD BE QUITE COOL TONIGHT...WITH UPPER 40S TO MID 50S FAIRLY
COMMON...AND EVEN SOME LOWER/MID 40S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN VT. FRI
MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH 75-80 IN VALLEYS...AND MAINLY 70-75 ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS MAY ONLY REACH THE
MID/UPPER 60S. FRI NT/SAT AM MINS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH STILL COOL FOR EARLY JULY...WITH UPPER 40S TO
MID 50S IN MOST AREAS.

SAT-SAT NT...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING A PAIR OF UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES AND THEIR POTENTIAL INTERACTION WITH SOME LOW/MID
LEVEL MOISTURE LURKING TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE REGION. ONE
IMPULSE SHOULD PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION IN THE MORNING...WITH
ANOTHER...SLIGHTLY STRONGER IMPULSE APPROACHING FROM THE THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE DAY OR SAT NT. THE FIRST IMPULSE
COULD BRING SOME CLOUDS TO SOUTHERN AREAS IN THE MORNING. AT THIS
TIME...HAVE NOT INDICATED ANY PRECIP...BUT TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED...AS SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS COULD OCCUR IN THE MORNING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT IF
THIS IMPULSE TRACKS A BIT FURTHER NORTH. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE A BIT MORE PROBABLE WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE SECOND IMPULSE...ALTHOUGH THE TIMING WOULD FAVOR
MAINLY WESTERN AREAS WITH SOME LOW CHANCES FOR A LATE DAY/EVENING
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM...SUCH AS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS/SCHOHARIE
VALLEY/MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS. HAVE INDICATED
SLIGHT CHC/LOW CHC POPS FOR THESE AREAS LATE IN THE DAY INTO EARLY
SAT NT...WHILE KEEPING AREAS E OF THE HUDSON RIVER DRY FOR NOW.
OVERALL AREAL COVERAGE SHOULD NOT BE VERY WIDESPREAD EVEN IF THEY
DO REACH THESE AREAS. OTHERWISE...MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER
80S IN VALLEYS AND 70S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH SAT NT/SUN
AM MINS FALLING INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO START OFF DRY AS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY MORNING AND
SETTLES ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. THERE SHOULD BE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL BOTH DAYS. EXPECT HIGHS ON BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY TO BE IN
THE MID 70S TO MID 80S WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S AND MONDAY
NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

A RETURN TO UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS FIRST A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE FA ON TUESDAY
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY FOR SUNDAY. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE 70S TO LOWER
80S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
     VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...

A VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE HAS RESULTED IN SCT-BKN CU BASES THIS
AFTERNOON...ABOVE 3000 FEET (THOUGH PRETTY CLOSE TO THAT THRESHOLD
AT KPSF). THERE COULD BE A SPRINKLE ESPECIALLY AT KPSF...BUT NO
IMPACT EXPECTED.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NW TO N 5-10KTS THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ON BY TONIGHT AND WE LOOSE THE SURFACE
HEATING. THAT WILL LEAVE US WITH A MAINLY CLEAR SKY AND ANY WIND
WILL BECOME LIGHT OR CALM.

THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SOME RADIATIONAL FOG TO DEVELOP. IT
APPEARS THE "CROSSOVER" TEMPERATURE WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S. IT
LOOKS AS IF ONLY KGFL WILL DIP MUCH BELOW 50 TONIGHT SO WE DID
CONTINUE THE IDEA OF IFR FOG FORMING AT THAT STATION AFTER
08Z...LASTING UNTIL 11Z. AT KPSF...OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO BE
AROUND 50...SO WE PLACED MVFR FOG AT THAT SITE BETWEEN 08Z-11Z.

THE OTHER TWO TAFS LOOK TO REMAIN JUST ABOVE 50 OVERNIGHT SO FOR
NOW...JUST USED SHALLOW FOG (MIFG) AT BOTH THESE TAF SITES BETWEEN
08Z-11Z.

AFTER 11Z...WE WILL HAVE A REALLY NICE AVIATION DAY FOR FLYING.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY...A LIGHT
NORTH WIND AROUND 5KTS AND FEW-SCT CU DEVELOPING 4000-5000 FEET.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
     MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY...

THERE COULD BE A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON BUT THAT SHOULD BE ABOUT IT. THERE WILL BE THE USUAL
NEARLY FULL RECOVERY EACH OF THE NEXT SEVERAL NIGHTS WITH LIGHT OR
CALM WINDS...YIELDING TO THE FORMATION OF DEW. RH VALUES WILL DROP
EACH AFTERNOON INTO THE 30S IN THE VALLEYS/40S HIGHER TERRAIN.
SUNSHINE WILL PREVAIL ALTHOUGH WILL BE MIXED WITH A GOOD DEAL OF
AFTERNOON CLOUDINESS ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF ALBANY.

THE WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT MAINLY FROM A NORTH TO NORTHWEST
DIRECTION UNDER 10 MPH DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AFTER THE WIDESPREAD 1-2 INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER THE PAST TWO
DAYS...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
SATURDAY...OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN SUNDAY
THROUGH LATE MONDAY. RIVER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FALL
THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD...AFTER SOME INITIAL CRESTS TODAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/HWJIV/IRL/KL
NEAR TERM...IRL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/KL



000
FXUS61 KALY 021744
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
144 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT
LAKES THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD BRING GENERALLY DRY WEATHER ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND 5 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COULD BRING AN
AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ON SATURDAY TO A FEW AREAS MAINLY
NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER WITH
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 145 PM EDT...A PLEASANT JULY AFTERNOON IS OCCURRING ACROSS
THE REGION WITH COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY ALONG WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. ONLY MAJOR CHANGE TO THIS UPDATE WAS TO
ACCOUNT FOR LATEST HOURLY OBSERVATIONS...AND TWEAKING OF HIGH
TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES DUE TO CURRENT CLOUD COVER
LIMITING MIXING POTENTIAL.

INITIALLY THIS AFTERNOON...MUCH OF THE REGION WILL EXPERIENCE PARTLY
CLOUDY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH A COUPLE OF ISOLATED POPUP
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND MID-
HUDSON VALLEY. THESE CLOUDS AND ANY POPUP SHOWERS/SPRINKLES THAT
FORM ARE IN RESPONSE TO ONE LAST PIECE OF WEAK UPPER-LEVEL
ENERGY/COLD POOL ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE BASE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH THAT IS SWINGING ACROSS NEW YORK.

MOST AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY HOWEVER...AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES IN AT THE SURFACE FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. IN
FACT...THIS RIDGING FROM THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL
DECREASE OF CLOUD COVER FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID AND
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION SEEING MOSTLY SUNNY/MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS BY SUNSET.
FURTHER SOUTH...SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY WITH CLOUD COVER
LIKELY LINGERING AFTER SUNSET ASSOCIATED WITH THE PROXIMITY TO
LINGERING EFFECTS FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
SPILLING NORTHWARD FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION.

HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND HIGH PEAKS ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT AND THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS...WITH MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE REST OF THE
REGION EXCEPT ACROSS THE LOWER MID-HUDSON VALLEY AND LITCHFIELD
HILLS WHERE HIGHS MAY REACH INTO THE 80-82 RANGE. WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE WESTERLY GENERALLY AROUND 5-15 MPH WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY...EXCEPT FOR OCCASIONAL
HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS ON FRIDAY...AS A
WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION. TEMPS
SHOULD BE QUITE COOL TONIGHT...WITH UPPER 40S TO MID 50S FAIRLY
COMMON...AND EVEN SOME LOWER/MID 40S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN VT. FRI
MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH 75-80 IN VALLEYS...AND MAINLY 70-75 ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS MAY ONLY REACH THE
MID/UPPER 60S. FRI NT/SAT AM MINS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH STILL COOL FOR EARLY JULY...WITH UPPER 40S TO
MID 50S IN MOST AREAS.

SAT-SAT NT...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING A PAIR OF UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES AND THEIR POTENTIAL INTERACTION WITH SOME LOW/MID
LEVEL MOISTURE LURKING TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE REGION. ONE
IMPULSE SHOULD PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION IN THE MORNING...WITH
ANOTHER...SLIGHTLY STRONGER IMPULSE APPROACHING FROM THE THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE DAY OR SAT NT. THE FIRST IMPULSE
COULD BRING SOME CLOUDS TO SOUTHERN AREAS IN THE MORNING. AT THIS
TIME...HAVE NOT INDICATED ANY PRECIP...BUT TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED...AS SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS COULD OCCUR IN THE MORNING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT IF
THIS IMPULSE TRACKS A BIT FURTHER NORTH. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE A BIT MORE PROBABLE WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE SECOND IMPULSE...ALTHOUGH THE TIMING WOULD FAVOR
MAINLY WESTERN AREAS WITH SOME LOW CHANCES FOR A LATE DAY/EVENING
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM...SUCH AS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS/SCHOHARIE
VALLEY/MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS. HAVE INDICATED
SLIGHT CHC/LOW CHC POPS FOR THESE AREAS LATE IN THE DAY INTO EARLY
SAT NT...WHILE KEEPING AREAS E OF THE HUDSON RIVER DRY FOR NOW.
OVERALL AREAL COVERAGE SHOULD NOT BE VERY WIDESPREAD EVEN IF THEY
DO REACH THESE AREAS. OTHERWISE...MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER
80S IN VALLEYS AND 70S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH SAT NT/SUN
AM MINS FALLING INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO START OFF DRY AS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY MORNING AND
SETTLES ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. THERE SHOULD BE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL BOTH DAYS. EXPECT HIGHS ON BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY TO BE IN
THE MID 70S TO MID 80S WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S AND MONDAY
NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

A RETURN TO UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS FIRST A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE FA ON TUESDAY
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY FOR SUNDAY. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE 70S TO LOWER
80S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
     VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...

A VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE HAS RESULTED IN SCT-BKN CU BASES THIS
AFTERNOON...ABOVE 3000 FEET (THOUGH PRETTY CLOSE TO THAT THRESHOLD
AT KPSF). THERE COULD BE A SPRINKLE ESPECIALLY AT KPSF...BUT NO
IMPACT EXPECTED.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NW TO N 5-10KTS THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ON BY TONIGHT AND WE LOOSE THE SURFACE
HEATING. THAT WILL LEAVE US WITH A MAINLY CLEAR SKY AND ANY WIND
WILL BECOME LIGHT OR CALM.

THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SOME RADIATIONAL FOG TO DEVELOP. IT
APPEARS THE "CROSSOVER" TEMPERATURE WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S. IT
LOOKS AS IF ONLY KGFL WILL DIP MUCH BELOW 50 TONIGHT SO WE DID
CONTINUE THE IDEA OF IFR FOG FORMING AT THAT STATION AFTER
08Z...LASTING UNTIL 11Z. AT KPSF...OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO BE
AROUND 50...SO WE PLACED MVFR FOG AT THAT SITE BETWEEN 08Z-11Z.

THE OTHER TWO TAFS LOOK TO REMAIN JUST ABOVE 50 OVERNIGHT SO FOR
NOW...JUST USED SHALLOW FOG (MIFG) AT BOTH THESE TAF SITES BETWEEN
08Z-11Z.

AFTER 11Z...WE WILL HAVE A REALLY NICE AVIATION DAY FOR FLYING.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY...A LIGHT
NORTH WIND AROUND 5KTS AND FEW-SCT CU DEVELOPING 4000-5000 FEET.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
     MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY...

THERE COULD BE A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON BUT THAT SHOULD BE ABOUT IT. THERE WILL BE THE USUAL
NEARLY FULL RECOVERY EACH OF THE NEXT SEVERAL NIGHTS WITH LIGHT OR
CALM WINDS...YIELDING TO THE FORMATION OF DEW. RH VALUES WILL DROP
EACH AFTERNOON INTO THE 30S IN THE VALLEYS/40S HIGHER TERRAIN.
SUNSHINE WILL PREVAIL ALTHOUGH WILL BE MIXED WITH A GOOD DEAL OF
AFTERNOON CLOUDINESS ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF ALBANY.

THE WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT MAINLY FROM A NORTH TO NORTHWEST
DIRECTION UNDER 10 MPH DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AFTER THE WIDESPREAD 1-2 INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER THE PAST TWO
DAYS...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
SATURDAY...OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN SUNDAY
THROUGH LATE MONDAY. RIVER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FALL
THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD...AFTER SOME INITIAL CRESTS TODAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/HWJIV/IRL/KL
NEAR TERM...IRL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/KL




000
FXUS61 KBOX 021723
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
123 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED COLD FRONT NEAR THE SOUTH COAST THIS AFTERNOON MOVES
OFFSHORE TONIGHT. ASIDE FROM A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS...AND A SPOT
SHOWER NEAR THE SOUTH COAST ON SATURDAY...DRY WEATHER PREVAILS
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH GRADUALLY WARMING CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE OBS SHOW THE FRONTAL WIND SHIFT ACROSS CAPE COD
BAY/CANAL/SOUTH MASS COAST. DRY AIRMASS NORTHWEST OF THIS FRONT
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 50S. A LITTLE MORE HUMID SOUTH OF THE FRONT
WITH DEWS ON CAPE COD AND ISLANDS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

SHORTWAVE SWINGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AS INDICATED BY WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS IS SUPPORTING A WAVE ALONG THE COLD FRONT OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY. THE WAVE WILL MOVE EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND BRING
AN INCREASE IN SKY COVER MOSTLY IN CT-RI-SOUTHEAST MASS. THIS MAY
ALLOW FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG OR SOUTH OF THE FRONT
TOWARD EVENING. NO CHANGES TO POPS FROM EARLIER FORECAST.

TEMPS AT 10 AM WERE MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. TEMPERATURE
PROFILE FROM THE 8 AM ALY SOUNDING SHOWS SUPPORT FOR MAX SFC TEMPS
FROM MIXING AROUND 81 DEGREES. THE EXISTING FORECAST HANDLES THIS
QUITE WELL. THE 10 AM TEMPS AND CLIMATOLOGY ALSO SUGGEST LOW 80S
WITH A FEW MID 80S POSSIBLE IN THE CT VALLEY AND SE MASS/RI.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
WEAK FRONT MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL WAVE
PASSES BY THE BENCHMARK. MAJORITY OF THE RAINFALL WILL STAY SOUTH
OF OUR REGION. HOWEVER...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TOWARD
NANTUCKET...WITH A LOWER RISK OF THESE SHOWERS REACHING AS FAR
NORTH AS CAPE COD...AND AS FAR WEST AS THE VINEYARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

 * LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER ON SATURDAY.
 * GRADUALLY WARMING CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...AMPLIFIED BLOCKING FLOW PATTERN
CONTINUES MAINLY ACROSS THE ERN PACIFIC AND WRN ATLANTIC UNDER
STRONG RIDGING...ESPECIALLY IN THE PACIFIC WHERE THE EPO IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO DIVE STRONGLY NEGATIVE. THIS LEAVES MUCH
OF THE CONUS IN A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW REGIME. NEARLY...BECAUSE VERY
WEAK TROUGHING IS EVIDENT PARTICULARLY AS NRN STREAM ENERGY MOVES
SHIFTS THROUGH HE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE MEAN JET. HOWEVER...UNTIL
ABOUT THE MID PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW
SRN NEW ENGLAND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WRN ATLANTIC RIDGING.
SO EVEN WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE THIS WEEKEND...IT LOOKS TO
MOVE THROUGH WITH LITTLE FANFARE AS SOUNDINGS SHOW DRY/SUBSIDENCE
IN PLACE. WITH MODERATE AGREEMENT BETWEEN OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF
/SOME SMALLER SCALE DIFFERENCES EXIST/ A BLEND WILL BE USED
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. BEYOND THIS...THERE IS SOME SIGNIFICANT
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING A SHIFT AS THE NRN STREAM VORTEX REGAINS
CONTROL ACROSS THE AREA...LEADING TO A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN.

DETAILS...

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT...WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING E FROM
THE GREAT LAKES AND A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE S...WILL
LIKELY SEE CYCLOGENESIS OF A WEAK LOW PRES CENTER WELL TO THE S.
THIS WILL ALSO INTRODUCE RIDGE OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR WHICH LOOKS
TO REMAIN TO THE W. FOR NOW...THE BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO REMAIN NEAR
THE S COAST...CLOSER TO THE DEVELOPING LOW PRES. HOWEVER...COLUMN
REMAINS MOSTLY DRY AND SUGGESTS SOME INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE MOVING
E OF THE REGION. SO SUSPECT ONLY A FEW SPOT SHOWERS TO CONTEND
WITH AT MOST. TEMPS AT H85 ARE AROUND +10C...SO SUSPECT 2M TEMPS
TO REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

SUN INTO TUE...AS STRONG NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN
ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA...THE WARM ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO RIDGE
AMPLIFICATION OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL LEAD
TO FAIRLY STRONG HIGH PRES DEVELOPMENT WHICH MAY LOCK IN PLACE FOR
A FEW DAYS OF DRY WX. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
MODERATING MID LVL TEMPS AND RISING HUMIDITY PARTICULARLY MON AND
TUE. H85 TEMPS INCREASE TO AN AVERAGE OF +12C MON...THEN CLOSER TO
+14C BY TUE. THEREFORE...AWAY FROM COASTLINES /WHERE SEA BREEZES
WILL LIMIT WARMING/ EXPECT TEMPS WARMER THAN EARLY JULY NORMALS.

MID-LATE NEXT WEEK...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...BECAUSE THIS IS SUCH A
ROBUST SHORTWAVE/CUTOFF THAT MODELS ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP...THERE
IS LITTLE AGREEMENT BETWEEN THEM REGARDING TIMING/STRENGTH...AND
ENSEMBLES ARE LITTLE HELP. HOWEVER...WITH FAIRLY WARM/HUMID
CONDITIONS AND AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
TRANSITION TO A WETTER AND MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN TOWARD THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THIS AFTERNOON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. SHOWERS LIKELY FOR KACK...POSSIBLY REACHING THE
VINEYARD AND CAPE COD. AREAS OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN ANY
SHOWERS/FOG.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING.

FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. WEAK SEA BREEZES LIKELY MOST DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

LINGERING ROUGH SEAS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON. SO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL PERSIST OVER THESE WATERS FOR A WHILE LONGER.
CHANGEABLE WINDS AS A COLD FRONT FIRST STALLS ACROSS THE
WATERS...THEN MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT. WINDS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KT. ONCE SEAS DIMINISH BELOW 5
FEET...EXPECTING RATHER TRANQUIL BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE MAIN ISSUE AT THAT POINT WOULD BE REDUCED VISIBILITY
IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. A WEEK LOW PRES WILL
PASS WELL S OF THE WATERS. THIS MAY LEAD TO E FLOW REACHING
20-25 KT ON THE SRN WATERS AND A BUILDING SWELL WHICH COULD REACH
5-6 FT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED. OTHERWISE...SOME
SHOWERS AND FOG AT TIMES MAY LEAD TO REDUCED VSBYS...MAINLY ON THE
SRN WATERS AS WELL.

SUN AN MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES WILL MOVE OVER THE WATERS
ALLOWING AND REMNANT SWELL TO SUBSIDE. AFTER WHICH QUIET BOATING
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ255-
     256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ235-
     237.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...WTB/BELK/DOODY
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...WTB/BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 021723
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
123 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED COLD FRONT NEAR THE SOUTH COAST THIS AFTERNOON MOVES
OFFSHORE TONIGHT. ASIDE FROM A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS...AND A SPOT
SHOWER NEAR THE SOUTH COAST ON SATURDAY...DRY WEATHER PREVAILS
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH GRADUALLY WARMING CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE OBS SHOW THE FRONTAL WIND SHIFT ACROSS CAPE COD
BAY/CANAL/SOUTH MASS COAST. DRY AIRMASS NORTHWEST OF THIS FRONT
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 50S. A LITTLE MORE HUMID SOUTH OF THE FRONT
WITH DEWS ON CAPE COD AND ISLANDS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

SHORTWAVE SWINGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AS INDICATED BY WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS IS SUPPORTING A WAVE ALONG THE COLD FRONT OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY. THE WAVE WILL MOVE EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND BRING
AN INCREASE IN SKY COVER MOSTLY IN CT-RI-SOUTHEAST MASS. THIS MAY
ALLOW FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG OR SOUTH OF THE FRONT
TOWARD EVENING. NO CHANGES TO POPS FROM EARLIER FORECAST.

TEMPS AT 10 AM WERE MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. TEMPERATURE
PROFILE FROM THE 8 AM ALY SOUNDING SHOWS SUPPORT FOR MAX SFC TEMPS
FROM MIXING AROUND 81 DEGREES. THE EXISTING FORECAST HANDLES THIS
QUITE WELL. THE 10 AM TEMPS AND CLIMATOLOGY ALSO SUGGEST LOW 80S
WITH A FEW MID 80S POSSIBLE IN THE CT VALLEY AND SE MASS/RI.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
WEAK FRONT MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL WAVE
PASSES BY THE BENCHMARK. MAJORITY OF THE RAINFALL WILL STAY SOUTH
OF OUR REGION. HOWEVER...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TOWARD
NANTUCKET...WITH A LOWER RISK OF THESE SHOWERS REACHING AS FAR
NORTH AS CAPE COD...AND AS FAR WEST AS THE VINEYARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

 * LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER ON SATURDAY.
 * GRADUALLY WARMING CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...AMPLIFIED BLOCKING FLOW PATTERN
CONTINUES MAINLY ACROSS THE ERN PACIFIC AND WRN ATLANTIC UNDER
STRONG RIDGING...ESPECIALLY IN THE PACIFIC WHERE THE EPO IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO DIVE STRONGLY NEGATIVE. THIS LEAVES MUCH
OF THE CONUS IN A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW REGIME. NEARLY...BECAUSE VERY
WEAK TROUGHING IS EVIDENT PARTICULARLY AS NRN STREAM ENERGY MOVES
SHIFTS THROUGH HE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE MEAN JET. HOWEVER...UNTIL
ABOUT THE MID PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW
SRN NEW ENGLAND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WRN ATLANTIC RIDGING.
SO EVEN WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE THIS WEEKEND...IT LOOKS TO
MOVE THROUGH WITH LITTLE FANFARE AS SOUNDINGS SHOW DRY/SUBSIDENCE
IN PLACE. WITH MODERATE AGREEMENT BETWEEN OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF
/SOME SMALLER SCALE DIFFERENCES EXIST/ A BLEND WILL BE USED
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. BEYOND THIS...THERE IS SOME SIGNIFICANT
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING A SHIFT AS THE NRN STREAM VORTEX REGAINS
CONTROL ACROSS THE AREA...LEADING TO A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN.

DETAILS...

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT...WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING E FROM
THE GREAT LAKES AND A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE S...WILL
LIKELY SEE CYCLOGENESIS OF A WEAK LOW PRES CENTER WELL TO THE S.
THIS WILL ALSO INTRODUCE RIDGE OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR WHICH LOOKS
TO REMAIN TO THE W. FOR NOW...THE BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO REMAIN NEAR
THE S COAST...CLOSER TO THE DEVELOPING LOW PRES. HOWEVER...COLUMN
REMAINS MOSTLY DRY AND SUGGESTS SOME INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE MOVING
E OF THE REGION. SO SUSPECT ONLY A FEW SPOT SHOWERS TO CONTEND
WITH AT MOST. TEMPS AT H85 ARE AROUND +10C...SO SUSPECT 2M TEMPS
TO REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

SUN INTO TUE...AS STRONG NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN
ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA...THE WARM ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO RIDGE
AMPLIFICATION OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL LEAD
TO FAIRLY STRONG HIGH PRES DEVELOPMENT WHICH MAY LOCK IN PLACE FOR
A FEW DAYS OF DRY WX. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
MODERATING MID LVL TEMPS AND RISING HUMIDITY PARTICULARLY MON AND
TUE. H85 TEMPS INCREASE TO AN AVERAGE OF +12C MON...THEN CLOSER TO
+14C BY TUE. THEREFORE...AWAY FROM COASTLINES /WHERE SEA BREEZES
WILL LIMIT WARMING/ EXPECT TEMPS WARMER THAN EARLY JULY NORMALS.

MID-LATE NEXT WEEK...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...BECAUSE THIS IS SUCH A
ROBUST SHORTWAVE/CUTOFF THAT MODELS ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP...THERE
IS LITTLE AGREEMENT BETWEEN THEM REGARDING TIMING/STRENGTH...AND
ENSEMBLES ARE LITTLE HELP. HOWEVER...WITH FAIRLY WARM/HUMID
CONDITIONS AND AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
TRANSITION TO A WETTER AND MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN TOWARD THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THIS AFTERNOON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. SHOWERS LIKELY FOR KACK...POSSIBLY REACHING THE
VINEYARD AND CAPE COD. AREAS OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN ANY
SHOWERS/FOG.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING.

FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. WEAK SEA BREEZES LIKELY MOST DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

LINGERING ROUGH SEAS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON. SO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL PERSIST OVER THESE WATERS FOR A WHILE LONGER.
CHANGEABLE WINDS AS A COLD FRONT FIRST STALLS ACROSS THE
WATERS...THEN MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT. WINDS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KT. ONCE SEAS DIMINISH BELOW 5
FEET...EXPECTING RATHER TRANQUIL BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE MAIN ISSUE AT THAT POINT WOULD BE REDUCED VISIBILITY
IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. A WEEK LOW PRES WILL
PASS WELL S OF THE WATERS. THIS MAY LEAD TO E FLOW REACHING
20-25 KT ON THE SRN WATERS AND A BUILDING SWELL WHICH COULD REACH
5-6 FT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED. OTHERWISE...SOME
SHOWERS AND FOG AT TIMES MAY LEAD TO REDUCED VSBYS...MAINLY ON THE
SRN WATERS AS WELL.

SUN AN MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES WILL MOVE OVER THE WATERS
ALLOWING AND REMNANT SWELL TO SUBSIDE. AFTER WHICH QUIET BOATING
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ255-
     256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ235-
     237.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...WTB/BELK/DOODY
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...WTB/BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY



000
FXUS61 KBOX 021723
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
123 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED COLD FRONT NEAR THE SOUTH COAST THIS AFTERNOON MOVES
OFFSHORE TONIGHT. ASIDE FROM A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS...AND A SPOT
SHOWER NEAR THE SOUTH COAST ON SATURDAY...DRY WEATHER PREVAILS
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH GRADUALLY WARMING CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE OBS SHOW THE FRONTAL WIND SHIFT ACROSS CAPE COD
BAY/CANAL/SOUTH MASS COAST. DRY AIRMASS NORTHWEST OF THIS FRONT
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 50S. A LITTLE MORE HUMID SOUTH OF THE FRONT
WITH DEWS ON CAPE COD AND ISLANDS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

SHORTWAVE SWINGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AS INDICATED BY WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS IS SUPPORTING A WAVE ALONG THE COLD FRONT OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY. THE WAVE WILL MOVE EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND BRING
AN INCREASE IN SKY COVER MOSTLY IN CT-RI-SOUTHEAST MASS. THIS MAY
ALLOW FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG OR SOUTH OF THE FRONT
TOWARD EVENING. NO CHANGES TO POPS FROM EARLIER FORECAST.

TEMPS AT 10 AM WERE MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. TEMPERATURE
PROFILE FROM THE 8 AM ALY SOUNDING SHOWS SUPPORT FOR MAX SFC TEMPS
FROM MIXING AROUND 81 DEGREES. THE EXISTING FORECAST HANDLES THIS
QUITE WELL. THE 10 AM TEMPS AND CLIMATOLOGY ALSO SUGGEST LOW 80S
WITH A FEW MID 80S POSSIBLE IN THE CT VALLEY AND SE MASS/RI.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
WEAK FRONT MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL WAVE
PASSES BY THE BENCHMARK. MAJORITY OF THE RAINFALL WILL STAY SOUTH
OF OUR REGION. HOWEVER...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TOWARD
NANTUCKET...WITH A LOWER RISK OF THESE SHOWERS REACHING AS FAR
NORTH AS CAPE COD...AND AS FAR WEST AS THE VINEYARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

 * LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER ON SATURDAY.
 * GRADUALLY WARMING CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...AMPLIFIED BLOCKING FLOW PATTERN
CONTINUES MAINLY ACROSS THE ERN PACIFIC AND WRN ATLANTIC UNDER
STRONG RIDGING...ESPECIALLY IN THE PACIFIC WHERE THE EPO IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO DIVE STRONGLY NEGATIVE. THIS LEAVES MUCH
OF THE CONUS IN A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW REGIME. NEARLY...BECAUSE VERY
WEAK TROUGHING IS EVIDENT PARTICULARLY AS NRN STREAM ENERGY MOVES
SHIFTS THROUGH HE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE MEAN JET. HOWEVER...UNTIL
ABOUT THE MID PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW
SRN NEW ENGLAND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WRN ATLANTIC RIDGING.
SO EVEN WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE THIS WEEKEND...IT LOOKS TO
MOVE THROUGH WITH LITTLE FANFARE AS SOUNDINGS SHOW DRY/SUBSIDENCE
IN PLACE. WITH MODERATE AGREEMENT BETWEEN OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF
/SOME SMALLER SCALE DIFFERENCES EXIST/ A BLEND WILL BE USED
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. BEYOND THIS...THERE IS SOME SIGNIFICANT
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING A SHIFT AS THE NRN STREAM VORTEX REGAINS
CONTROL ACROSS THE AREA...LEADING TO A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN.

DETAILS...

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT...WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING E FROM
THE GREAT LAKES AND A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE S...WILL
LIKELY SEE CYCLOGENESIS OF A WEAK LOW PRES CENTER WELL TO THE S.
THIS WILL ALSO INTRODUCE RIDGE OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR WHICH LOOKS
TO REMAIN TO THE W. FOR NOW...THE BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO REMAIN NEAR
THE S COAST...CLOSER TO THE DEVELOPING LOW PRES. HOWEVER...COLUMN
REMAINS MOSTLY DRY AND SUGGESTS SOME INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE MOVING
E OF THE REGION. SO SUSPECT ONLY A FEW SPOT SHOWERS TO CONTEND
WITH AT MOST. TEMPS AT H85 ARE AROUND +10C...SO SUSPECT 2M TEMPS
TO REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

SUN INTO TUE...AS STRONG NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN
ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA...THE WARM ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO RIDGE
AMPLIFICATION OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL LEAD
TO FAIRLY STRONG HIGH PRES DEVELOPMENT WHICH MAY LOCK IN PLACE FOR
A FEW DAYS OF DRY WX. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
MODERATING MID LVL TEMPS AND RISING HUMIDITY PARTICULARLY MON AND
TUE. H85 TEMPS INCREASE TO AN AVERAGE OF +12C MON...THEN CLOSER TO
+14C BY TUE. THEREFORE...AWAY FROM COASTLINES /WHERE SEA BREEZES
WILL LIMIT WARMING/ EXPECT TEMPS WARMER THAN EARLY JULY NORMALS.

MID-LATE NEXT WEEK...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...BECAUSE THIS IS SUCH A
ROBUST SHORTWAVE/CUTOFF THAT MODELS ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP...THERE
IS LITTLE AGREEMENT BETWEEN THEM REGARDING TIMING/STRENGTH...AND
ENSEMBLES ARE LITTLE HELP. HOWEVER...WITH FAIRLY WARM/HUMID
CONDITIONS AND AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
TRANSITION TO A WETTER AND MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN TOWARD THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THIS AFTERNOON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. SHOWERS LIKELY FOR KACK...POSSIBLY REACHING THE
VINEYARD AND CAPE COD. AREAS OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN ANY
SHOWERS/FOG.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING.

FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. WEAK SEA BREEZES LIKELY MOST DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

LINGERING ROUGH SEAS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON. SO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL PERSIST OVER THESE WATERS FOR A WHILE LONGER.
CHANGEABLE WINDS AS A COLD FRONT FIRST STALLS ACROSS THE
WATERS...THEN MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT. WINDS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KT. ONCE SEAS DIMINISH BELOW 5
FEET...EXPECTING RATHER TRANQUIL BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE MAIN ISSUE AT THAT POINT WOULD BE REDUCED VISIBILITY
IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. A WEEK LOW PRES WILL
PASS WELL S OF THE WATERS. THIS MAY LEAD TO E FLOW REACHING
20-25 KT ON THE SRN WATERS AND A BUILDING SWELL WHICH COULD REACH
5-6 FT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED. OTHERWISE...SOME
SHOWERS AND FOG AT TIMES MAY LEAD TO REDUCED VSBYS...MAINLY ON THE
SRN WATERS AS WELL.

SUN AN MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES WILL MOVE OVER THE WATERS
ALLOWING AND REMNANT SWELL TO SUBSIDE. AFTER WHICH QUIET BOATING
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ255-
     256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ235-
     237.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...WTB/BELK/DOODY
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...WTB/BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 021723
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
123 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED COLD FRONT NEAR THE SOUTH COAST THIS AFTERNOON MOVES
OFFSHORE TONIGHT. ASIDE FROM A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS...AND A SPOT
SHOWER NEAR THE SOUTH COAST ON SATURDAY...DRY WEATHER PREVAILS
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH GRADUALLY WARMING CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE OBS SHOW THE FRONTAL WIND SHIFT ACROSS CAPE COD
BAY/CANAL/SOUTH MASS COAST. DRY AIRMASS NORTHWEST OF THIS FRONT
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 50S. A LITTLE MORE HUMID SOUTH OF THE FRONT
WITH DEWS ON CAPE COD AND ISLANDS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

SHORTWAVE SWINGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AS INDICATED BY WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS IS SUPPORTING A WAVE ALONG THE COLD FRONT OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY. THE WAVE WILL MOVE EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND BRING
AN INCREASE IN SKY COVER MOSTLY IN CT-RI-SOUTHEAST MASS. THIS MAY
ALLOW FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG OR SOUTH OF THE FRONT
TOWARD EVENING. NO CHANGES TO POPS FROM EARLIER FORECAST.

TEMPS AT 10 AM WERE MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. TEMPERATURE
PROFILE FROM THE 8 AM ALY SOUNDING SHOWS SUPPORT FOR MAX SFC TEMPS
FROM MIXING AROUND 81 DEGREES. THE EXISTING FORECAST HANDLES THIS
QUITE WELL. THE 10 AM TEMPS AND CLIMATOLOGY ALSO SUGGEST LOW 80S
WITH A FEW MID 80S POSSIBLE IN THE CT VALLEY AND SE MASS/RI.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
WEAK FRONT MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL WAVE
PASSES BY THE BENCHMARK. MAJORITY OF THE RAINFALL WILL STAY SOUTH
OF OUR REGION. HOWEVER...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TOWARD
NANTUCKET...WITH A LOWER RISK OF THESE SHOWERS REACHING AS FAR
NORTH AS CAPE COD...AND AS FAR WEST AS THE VINEYARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

 * LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER ON SATURDAY.
 * GRADUALLY WARMING CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...AMPLIFIED BLOCKING FLOW PATTERN
CONTINUES MAINLY ACROSS THE ERN PACIFIC AND WRN ATLANTIC UNDER
STRONG RIDGING...ESPECIALLY IN THE PACIFIC WHERE THE EPO IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO DIVE STRONGLY NEGATIVE. THIS LEAVES MUCH
OF THE CONUS IN A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW REGIME. NEARLY...BECAUSE VERY
WEAK TROUGHING IS EVIDENT PARTICULARLY AS NRN STREAM ENERGY MOVES
SHIFTS THROUGH HE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE MEAN JET. HOWEVER...UNTIL
ABOUT THE MID PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW
SRN NEW ENGLAND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WRN ATLANTIC RIDGING.
SO EVEN WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE THIS WEEKEND...IT LOOKS TO
MOVE THROUGH WITH LITTLE FANFARE AS SOUNDINGS SHOW DRY/SUBSIDENCE
IN PLACE. WITH MODERATE AGREEMENT BETWEEN OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF
/SOME SMALLER SCALE DIFFERENCES EXIST/ A BLEND WILL BE USED
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. BEYOND THIS...THERE IS SOME SIGNIFICANT
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING A SHIFT AS THE NRN STREAM VORTEX REGAINS
CONTROL ACROSS THE AREA...LEADING TO A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN.

DETAILS...

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT...WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING E FROM
THE GREAT LAKES AND A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE S...WILL
LIKELY SEE CYCLOGENESIS OF A WEAK LOW PRES CENTER WELL TO THE S.
THIS WILL ALSO INTRODUCE RIDGE OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR WHICH LOOKS
TO REMAIN TO THE W. FOR NOW...THE BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO REMAIN NEAR
THE S COAST...CLOSER TO THE DEVELOPING LOW PRES. HOWEVER...COLUMN
REMAINS MOSTLY DRY AND SUGGESTS SOME INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE MOVING
E OF THE REGION. SO SUSPECT ONLY A FEW SPOT SHOWERS TO CONTEND
WITH AT MOST. TEMPS AT H85 ARE AROUND +10C...SO SUSPECT 2M TEMPS
TO REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

SUN INTO TUE...AS STRONG NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN
ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA...THE WARM ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO RIDGE
AMPLIFICATION OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL LEAD
TO FAIRLY STRONG HIGH PRES DEVELOPMENT WHICH MAY LOCK IN PLACE FOR
A FEW DAYS OF DRY WX. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
MODERATING MID LVL TEMPS AND RISING HUMIDITY PARTICULARLY MON AND
TUE. H85 TEMPS INCREASE TO AN AVERAGE OF +12C MON...THEN CLOSER TO
+14C BY TUE. THEREFORE...AWAY FROM COASTLINES /WHERE SEA BREEZES
WILL LIMIT WARMING/ EXPECT TEMPS WARMER THAN EARLY JULY NORMALS.

MID-LATE NEXT WEEK...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...BECAUSE THIS IS SUCH A
ROBUST SHORTWAVE/CUTOFF THAT MODELS ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP...THERE
IS LITTLE AGREEMENT BETWEEN THEM REGARDING TIMING/STRENGTH...AND
ENSEMBLES ARE LITTLE HELP. HOWEVER...WITH FAIRLY WARM/HUMID
CONDITIONS AND AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
TRANSITION TO A WETTER AND MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN TOWARD THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THIS AFTERNOON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. SHOWERS LIKELY FOR KACK...POSSIBLY REACHING THE
VINEYARD AND CAPE COD. AREAS OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN ANY
SHOWERS/FOG.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING.

FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. WEAK SEA BREEZES LIKELY MOST DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

LINGERING ROUGH SEAS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON. SO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL PERSIST OVER THESE WATERS FOR A WHILE LONGER.
CHANGEABLE WINDS AS A COLD FRONT FIRST STALLS ACROSS THE
WATERS...THEN MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT. WINDS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KT. ONCE SEAS DIMINISH BELOW 5
FEET...EXPECTING RATHER TRANQUIL BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE MAIN ISSUE AT THAT POINT WOULD BE REDUCED VISIBILITY
IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. A WEEK LOW PRES WILL
PASS WELL S OF THE WATERS. THIS MAY LEAD TO E FLOW REACHING
20-25 KT ON THE SRN WATERS AND A BUILDING SWELL WHICH COULD REACH
5-6 FT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED. OTHERWISE...SOME
SHOWERS AND FOG AT TIMES MAY LEAD TO REDUCED VSBYS...MAINLY ON THE
SRN WATERS AS WELL.

SUN AN MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES WILL MOVE OVER THE WATERS
ALLOWING AND REMNANT SWELL TO SUBSIDE. AFTER WHICH QUIET BOATING
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ255-
     256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ235-
     237.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...WTB/BELK/DOODY
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...WTB/BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY



000
FXUS61 KALY 021716
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
116 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT
LAKES THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD BRING GENERALLY DRY WEATHER ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND 5 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COULD BRING AN
AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ON SATURDAY TO A FEW AREAS MAINLY
NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER WITH
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 930 AM EDT...STILL HAVE SOME PATCHY CLOUDS AROUND THE
REGION...MAINLY IN OUR SOUTHWESTERN AREAS. LOOK TO BE THE SOME MCS
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM OLD UPSTREAM MCS COMPLEXES BOTH IN THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN JET BRANCHES.

THERE MIGHT ALSO BE A LITTLE SMOKE FROM AN ONGOING FIRE IN
MANITOBA GIVING IT SLIGHTLY "DIRTY" LOOK.

THE H20 ANALYSIS INDICATED A VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE (COLD POOL
ALOFT) WORKING TO OUR SOUTHERN REGIONS WHICH MIGHT TOUCH OFF
PRETTY GOOD CU DEVELOPING AND PERHAPS A FEW SPRINKLES OR SHOWERS.

ON GOING FORECAST HAD ALL OF THIS COVERED WELL SO FOR THIS UPDATE
JUST MINOR TWEAKING OF MAINLY THE HOURLY WEATHER FIELDS.

THE SKY WILL MOST LIKELY VARY BETWEEN PARTLY SUNNY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY FOR A BIT THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...TRENDING
TO MOSTLY SUNNY LATER THIS AFTERNOON FOR AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE
90.

FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-90...LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE WITH
THE APPROACH/PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD POOL. SEVERAL
MESOSCALE MODELS SUCH AS THE LOCAL WRF...HRRR...AND SEVERAL SREF
MEMBERS SUGGEST ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES DEVELOPING
LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...FOR AREAS MAINLY
SOUTH OF THE GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT...ESP FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
HAVE INDICATED SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR THESE AREAS DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES. THESE CONVECTIVE
CLOUDS/SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN QUITE SHALLOW...AS A STRONG MID LEVEL CAP
SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE LIMITING POTENTIAL VERTICAL EXTENT...AND
ICE FORMATION...THEREFORE NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDER AT THIS TIME.

AS FOR MAX TEMPS...LOOK FOR HIGHS 75 TO AROUND 80 IN MOST VALLEYS...
HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL REACH THE MID 60S TO MID 70S ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT...AND GENERALLY LOWER TO MID
70S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY...EXCEPT FOR OCCASIONAL
HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS ON FRIDAY...AS A
WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION. TEMPS
SHOULD BE QUITE COOL TONIGHT...WITH UPPER 40S TO MID 50S FAIRLY
COMMON...AND EVEN SOME LOWER/MID 40S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN VT. FRI
MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH 75-80 IN VALLEYS...AND MAINLY 70-75 ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS MAY ONLY REACH THE
MID/UPPER 60S. FRI NT/SAT AM MINS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH STILL COOL FOR EARLY JULY...WITH UPPER 40S TO
MID 50S IN MOST AREAS.

SAT-SAT NT...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING A PAIR OF UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES AND THEIR POTENTIAL INTERACTION WITH SOME LOW/MID
LEVEL MOISTURE LURKING TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE REGION. ONE
IMPULSE SHOULD PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION IN THE MORNING...WITH
ANOTHER...SLIGHTLY STRONGER IMPULSE APPROACHING FROM THE THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE DAY OR SAT NT. THE FIRST IMPULSE
COULD BRING SOME CLOUDS TO SOUTHERN AREAS IN THE MORNING. AT THIS
TIME...HAVE NOT INDICATED ANY PRECIP...BUT TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED...AS SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS COULD OCCUR IN THE MORNING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT IF
THIS IMPULSE TRACKS A BIT FURTHER NORTH. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE A BIT MORE PROBABLE WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE SECOND IMPULSE...ALTHOUGH THE TIMING WOULD FAVOR
MAINLY WESTERN AREAS WITH SOME LOW CHANCES FOR A LATE DAY/EVENING
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM...SUCH AS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS/SCHOHARIE
VALLEY/MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS. HAVE INDICATED
SLIGHT CHC/LOW CHC POPS FOR THESE AREAS LATE IN THE DAY INTO EARLY
SAT NT...WHILE KEEPING AREAS E OF THE HUDSON RIVER DRY FOR NOW.
OVERALL AREAL COVERAGE SHOULD NOT BE VERY WIDESPREAD EVEN IF THEY
DO REACH THESE AREAS. OTHERWISE...MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER
80S IN VALLEYS AND 70S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH SAT NT/SUN
AM MINS FALLING INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO START OFF DRY AS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY MORNING AND
SETTLES ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. THERE SHOULD BE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL BOTH DAYS. EXPECT HIGHS ON BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY TO BE IN
THE MID 70S TO MID 80S WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S AND MONDAY
NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

A RETURN TO UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS FIRST A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE FA ON TUESDAY
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY FOR SUNDAY. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE 70S TO LOWER
80S.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...

A VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE HAS RESULTED IN SCT-BKN CU BASES THIS
AFTERNOON...ABOVE 3000 FEET (THOUGH PRETTY CLOSE TO THAT THRESHOLD
AT KPSF). THERE COULD BE A SPRINKLE ESPECIALLY AT KPSF...BUT NO
IMPACT EXPECTED.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NW TO N 5-10KTS THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ON BY TONIGHT AND WE LOOSE THE SURFACE
HEATING. THAT WILL LEAVE US WITH A MAINLY CLEAR SKY AND ANY WIND
WILL BECOME LIGHT OR CALM.

THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SOME RADIATIONAL FOG TO DEVELOP. IT
APPEARS THE "CROSSOVER" TEMPERATURE WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S. IT
LOOKS AS IF ONLY KGFL WILL DIP MUCH BELOW 50 TONIGHT SO WE DID
CONTINUE THE IDEA OF IFR FOG FORMING AT THAT STATION AFTER
08Z...LASTING UNTIL 11Z. AT KPSF...OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO BE
AROUND 50...SO WE PLACED MVFR FOG AT THAT SITE BETWEEN 08Z-11Z.

THE OTHER TWO TAFS LOOK TO REMAIN JUST ABOVE 50 OVERNIGHT SO FOR
NOW...JUST USED SHALLOW FOG (MIFG) AT BOTH THESE TAF SITES BETWEEN
08Z-11Z.

AFTER 11Z...WE WILL HAVE A REALLY NICE AVIATION DAY FOR FLYING.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY...A LIGHT
NORTH WIND AROUND 5KTS AND FEW-SCT CU DEVELOPING 4000-5000 FEET.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY...

THERE COULD BE A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON BUT THAT SHOULD BE ABOUT IT. THERE WILL BE THE USUAL
NEARLY FULL RECOVERY EACH OF THE NEXT SEVERAL NIGHTS WITH LIGHT OR
CALM WINDS...YIELDING TO THE FORMATION OF DEW. RH VALUES WILL DROP
EACH AFTERNOON INTO THE 30S IN THE VALLEYS/40S HIGHER TERRAIN.
SUNSHINE WILL PREVAIL ALTHOUGH WILL BE MIXED WITH A GOOD DEAL OF
AFTERNOON CLOUDINESS ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF ALBANY.

THE WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT MAINLY FROM A NORTH TO NORTHWEST
DIRECTION UNDER 10 MPH DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AFTER THE WIDESPREAD 1-2 INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER THE PAST TWO
DAYS...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
SATURDAY...OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN SUNDAY
THROUGH LATE MONDAY. RIVER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FALL
THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD...AFTER SOME INITIAL CRESTS TODAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/HWJIV/KL
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/KL




000
FXUS61 KALY 021716
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
116 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT
LAKES THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD BRING GENERALLY DRY WEATHER ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND 5 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COULD BRING AN
AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ON SATURDAY TO A FEW AREAS MAINLY
NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER WITH
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 930 AM EDT...STILL HAVE SOME PATCHY CLOUDS AROUND THE
REGION...MAINLY IN OUR SOUTHWESTERN AREAS. LOOK TO BE THE SOME MCS
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM OLD UPSTREAM MCS COMPLEXES BOTH IN THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN JET BRANCHES.

THERE MIGHT ALSO BE A LITTLE SMOKE FROM AN ONGOING FIRE IN
MANITOBA GIVING IT SLIGHTLY "DIRTY" LOOK.

THE H20 ANALYSIS INDICATED A VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE (COLD POOL
ALOFT) WORKING TO OUR SOUTHERN REGIONS WHICH MIGHT TOUCH OFF
PRETTY GOOD CU DEVELOPING AND PERHAPS A FEW SPRINKLES OR SHOWERS.

ON GOING FORECAST HAD ALL OF THIS COVERED WELL SO FOR THIS UPDATE
JUST MINOR TWEAKING OF MAINLY THE HOURLY WEATHER FIELDS.

THE SKY WILL MOST LIKELY VARY BETWEEN PARTLY SUNNY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY FOR A BIT THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...TRENDING
TO MOSTLY SUNNY LATER THIS AFTERNOON FOR AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE
90.

FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-90...LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE WITH
THE APPROACH/PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD POOL. SEVERAL
MESOSCALE MODELS SUCH AS THE LOCAL WRF...HRRR...AND SEVERAL SREF
MEMBERS SUGGEST ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES DEVELOPING
LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...FOR AREAS MAINLY
SOUTH OF THE GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT...ESP FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
HAVE INDICATED SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR THESE AREAS DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES. THESE CONVECTIVE
CLOUDS/SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN QUITE SHALLOW...AS A STRONG MID LEVEL CAP
SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE LIMITING POTENTIAL VERTICAL EXTENT...AND
ICE FORMATION...THEREFORE NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDER AT THIS TIME.

AS FOR MAX TEMPS...LOOK FOR HIGHS 75 TO AROUND 80 IN MOST VALLEYS...
HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL REACH THE MID 60S TO MID 70S ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT...AND GENERALLY LOWER TO MID
70S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY...EXCEPT FOR OCCASIONAL
HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS ON FRIDAY...AS A
WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION. TEMPS
SHOULD BE QUITE COOL TONIGHT...WITH UPPER 40S TO MID 50S FAIRLY
COMMON...AND EVEN SOME LOWER/MID 40S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN VT. FRI
MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH 75-80 IN VALLEYS...AND MAINLY 70-75 ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS MAY ONLY REACH THE
MID/UPPER 60S. FRI NT/SAT AM MINS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH STILL COOL FOR EARLY JULY...WITH UPPER 40S TO
MID 50S IN MOST AREAS.

SAT-SAT NT...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING A PAIR OF UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES AND THEIR POTENTIAL INTERACTION WITH SOME LOW/MID
LEVEL MOISTURE LURKING TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE REGION. ONE
IMPULSE SHOULD PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION IN THE MORNING...WITH
ANOTHER...SLIGHTLY STRONGER IMPULSE APPROACHING FROM THE THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE DAY OR SAT NT. THE FIRST IMPULSE
COULD BRING SOME CLOUDS TO SOUTHERN AREAS IN THE MORNING. AT THIS
TIME...HAVE NOT INDICATED ANY PRECIP...BUT TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED...AS SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS COULD OCCUR IN THE MORNING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT IF
THIS IMPULSE TRACKS A BIT FURTHER NORTH. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE A BIT MORE PROBABLE WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE SECOND IMPULSE...ALTHOUGH THE TIMING WOULD FAVOR
MAINLY WESTERN AREAS WITH SOME LOW CHANCES FOR A LATE DAY/EVENING
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM...SUCH AS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS/SCHOHARIE
VALLEY/MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS. HAVE INDICATED
SLIGHT CHC/LOW CHC POPS FOR THESE AREAS LATE IN THE DAY INTO EARLY
SAT NT...WHILE KEEPING AREAS E OF THE HUDSON RIVER DRY FOR NOW.
OVERALL AREAL COVERAGE SHOULD NOT BE VERY WIDESPREAD EVEN IF THEY
DO REACH THESE AREAS. OTHERWISE...MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER
80S IN VALLEYS AND 70S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH SAT NT/SUN
AM MINS FALLING INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO START OFF DRY AS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY MORNING AND
SETTLES ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. THERE SHOULD BE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL BOTH DAYS. EXPECT HIGHS ON BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY TO BE IN
THE MID 70S TO MID 80S WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S AND MONDAY
NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

A RETURN TO UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS FIRST A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE FA ON TUESDAY
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY FOR SUNDAY. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE 70S TO LOWER
80S.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...

A VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE HAS RESULTED IN SCT-BKN CU BASES THIS
AFTERNOON...ABOVE 3000 FEET (THOUGH PRETTY CLOSE TO THAT THRESHOLD
AT KPSF). THERE COULD BE A SPRINKLE ESPECIALLY AT KPSF...BUT NO
IMPACT EXPECTED.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NW TO N 5-10KTS THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ON BY TONIGHT AND WE LOOSE THE SURFACE
HEATING. THAT WILL LEAVE US WITH A MAINLY CLEAR SKY AND ANY WIND
WILL BECOME LIGHT OR CALM.

THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SOME RADIATIONAL FOG TO DEVELOP. IT
APPEARS THE "CROSSOVER" TEMPERATURE WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S. IT
LOOKS AS IF ONLY KGFL WILL DIP MUCH BELOW 50 TONIGHT SO WE DID
CONTINUE THE IDEA OF IFR FOG FORMING AT THAT STATION AFTER
08Z...LASTING UNTIL 11Z. AT KPSF...OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO BE
AROUND 50...SO WE PLACED MVFR FOG AT THAT SITE BETWEEN 08Z-11Z.

THE OTHER TWO TAFS LOOK TO REMAIN JUST ABOVE 50 OVERNIGHT SO FOR
NOW...JUST USED SHALLOW FOG (MIFG) AT BOTH THESE TAF SITES BETWEEN
08Z-11Z.

AFTER 11Z...WE WILL HAVE A REALLY NICE AVIATION DAY FOR FLYING.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY...A LIGHT
NORTH WIND AROUND 5KTS AND FEW-SCT CU DEVELOPING 4000-5000 FEET.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY...

THERE COULD BE A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON BUT THAT SHOULD BE ABOUT IT. THERE WILL BE THE USUAL
NEARLY FULL RECOVERY EACH OF THE NEXT SEVERAL NIGHTS WITH LIGHT OR
CALM WINDS...YIELDING TO THE FORMATION OF DEW. RH VALUES WILL DROP
EACH AFTERNOON INTO THE 30S IN THE VALLEYS/40S HIGHER TERRAIN.
SUNSHINE WILL PREVAIL ALTHOUGH WILL BE MIXED WITH A GOOD DEAL OF
AFTERNOON CLOUDINESS ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF ALBANY.

THE WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT MAINLY FROM A NORTH TO NORTHWEST
DIRECTION UNDER 10 MPH DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AFTER THE WIDESPREAD 1-2 INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER THE PAST TWO
DAYS...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
SATURDAY...OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN SUNDAY
THROUGH LATE MONDAY. RIVER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FALL
THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD...AFTER SOME INITIAL CRESTS TODAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/HWJIV/KL
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/KL




000
FXUS61 KALY 021716
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
116 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT
LAKES THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD BRING GENERALLY DRY WEATHER ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND 5 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COULD BRING AN
AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ON SATURDAY TO A FEW AREAS MAINLY
NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER WITH
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 930 AM EDT...STILL HAVE SOME PATCHY CLOUDS AROUND THE
REGION...MAINLY IN OUR SOUTHWESTERN AREAS. LOOK TO BE THE SOME MCS
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM OLD UPSTREAM MCS COMPLEXES BOTH IN THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN JET BRANCHES.

THERE MIGHT ALSO BE A LITTLE SMOKE FROM AN ONGOING FIRE IN
MANITOBA GIVING IT SLIGHTLY "DIRTY" LOOK.

THE H20 ANALYSIS INDICATED A VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE (COLD POOL
ALOFT) WORKING TO OUR SOUTHERN REGIONS WHICH MIGHT TOUCH OFF
PRETTY GOOD CU DEVELOPING AND PERHAPS A FEW SPRINKLES OR SHOWERS.

ON GOING FORECAST HAD ALL OF THIS COVERED WELL SO FOR THIS UPDATE
JUST MINOR TWEAKING OF MAINLY THE HOURLY WEATHER FIELDS.

THE SKY WILL MOST LIKELY VARY BETWEEN PARTLY SUNNY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY FOR A BIT THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...TRENDING
TO MOSTLY SUNNY LATER THIS AFTERNOON FOR AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE
90.

FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-90...LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE WITH
THE APPROACH/PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD POOL. SEVERAL
MESOSCALE MODELS SUCH AS THE LOCAL WRF...HRRR...AND SEVERAL SREF
MEMBERS SUGGEST ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES DEVELOPING
LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...FOR AREAS MAINLY
SOUTH OF THE GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT...ESP FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
HAVE INDICATED SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR THESE AREAS DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES. THESE CONVECTIVE
CLOUDS/SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN QUITE SHALLOW...AS A STRONG MID LEVEL CAP
SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE LIMITING POTENTIAL VERTICAL EXTENT...AND
ICE FORMATION...THEREFORE NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDER AT THIS TIME.

AS FOR MAX TEMPS...LOOK FOR HIGHS 75 TO AROUND 80 IN MOST VALLEYS...
HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL REACH THE MID 60S TO MID 70S ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT...AND GENERALLY LOWER TO MID
70S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY...EXCEPT FOR OCCASIONAL
HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS ON FRIDAY...AS A
WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION. TEMPS
SHOULD BE QUITE COOL TONIGHT...WITH UPPER 40S TO MID 50S FAIRLY
COMMON...AND EVEN SOME LOWER/MID 40S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN VT. FRI
MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH 75-80 IN VALLEYS...AND MAINLY 70-75 ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS MAY ONLY REACH THE
MID/UPPER 60S. FRI NT/SAT AM MINS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH STILL COOL FOR EARLY JULY...WITH UPPER 40S TO
MID 50S IN MOST AREAS.

SAT-SAT NT...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING A PAIR OF UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES AND THEIR POTENTIAL INTERACTION WITH SOME LOW/MID
LEVEL MOISTURE LURKING TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE REGION. ONE
IMPULSE SHOULD PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION IN THE MORNING...WITH
ANOTHER...SLIGHTLY STRONGER IMPULSE APPROACHING FROM THE THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE DAY OR SAT NT. THE FIRST IMPULSE
COULD BRING SOME CLOUDS TO SOUTHERN AREAS IN THE MORNING. AT THIS
TIME...HAVE NOT INDICATED ANY PRECIP...BUT TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED...AS SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS COULD OCCUR IN THE MORNING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT IF
THIS IMPULSE TRACKS A BIT FURTHER NORTH. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE A BIT MORE PROBABLE WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE SECOND IMPULSE...ALTHOUGH THE TIMING WOULD FAVOR
MAINLY WESTERN AREAS WITH SOME LOW CHANCES FOR A LATE DAY/EVENING
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM...SUCH AS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS/SCHOHARIE
VALLEY/MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS. HAVE INDICATED
SLIGHT CHC/LOW CHC POPS FOR THESE AREAS LATE IN THE DAY INTO EARLY
SAT NT...WHILE KEEPING AREAS E OF THE HUDSON RIVER DRY FOR NOW.
OVERALL AREAL COVERAGE SHOULD NOT BE VERY WIDESPREAD EVEN IF THEY
DO REACH THESE AREAS. OTHERWISE...MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER
80S IN VALLEYS AND 70S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH SAT NT/SUN
AM MINS FALLING INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO START OFF DRY AS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY MORNING AND
SETTLES ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. THERE SHOULD BE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL BOTH DAYS. EXPECT HIGHS ON BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY TO BE IN
THE MID 70S TO MID 80S WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S AND MONDAY
NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

A RETURN TO UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS FIRST A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE FA ON TUESDAY
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY FOR SUNDAY. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE 70S TO LOWER
80S.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...

A VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE HAS RESULTED IN SCT-BKN CU BASES THIS
AFTERNOON...ABOVE 3000 FEET (THOUGH PRETTY CLOSE TO THAT THRESHOLD
AT KPSF). THERE COULD BE A SPRINKLE ESPECIALLY AT KPSF...BUT NO
IMPACT EXPECTED.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NW TO N 5-10KTS THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ON BY TONIGHT AND WE LOOSE THE SURFACE
HEATING. THAT WILL LEAVE US WITH A MAINLY CLEAR SKY AND ANY WIND
WILL BECOME LIGHT OR CALM.

THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SOME RADIATIONAL FOG TO DEVELOP. IT
APPEARS THE "CROSSOVER" TEMPERATURE WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S. IT
LOOKS AS IF ONLY KGFL WILL DIP MUCH BELOW 50 TONIGHT SO WE DID
CONTINUE THE IDEA OF IFR FOG FORMING AT THAT STATION AFTER
08Z...LASTING UNTIL 11Z. AT KPSF...OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO BE
AROUND 50...SO WE PLACED MVFR FOG AT THAT SITE BETWEEN 08Z-11Z.

THE OTHER TWO TAFS LOOK TO REMAIN JUST ABOVE 50 OVERNIGHT SO FOR
NOW...JUST USED SHALLOW FOG (MIFG) AT BOTH THESE TAF SITES BETWEEN
08Z-11Z.

AFTER 11Z...WE WILL HAVE A REALLY NICE AVIATION DAY FOR FLYING.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY...A LIGHT
NORTH WIND AROUND 5KTS AND FEW-SCT CU DEVELOPING 4000-5000 FEET.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY...

THERE COULD BE A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON BUT THAT SHOULD BE ABOUT IT. THERE WILL BE THE USUAL
NEARLY FULL RECOVERY EACH OF THE NEXT SEVERAL NIGHTS WITH LIGHT OR
CALM WINDS...YIELDING TO THE FORMATION OF DEW. RH VALUES WILL DROP
EACH AFTERNOON INTO THE 30S IN THE VALLEYS/40S HIGHER TERRAIN.
SUNSHINE WILL PREVAIL ALTHOUGH WILL BE MIXED WITH A GOOD DEAL OF
AFTERNOON CLOUDINESS ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF ALBANY.

THE WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT MAINLY FROM A NORTH TO NORTHWEST
DIRECTION UNDER 10 MPH DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AFTER THE WIDESPREAD 1-2 INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER THE PAST TWO
DAYS...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
SATURDAY...OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN SUNDAY
THROUGH LATE MONDAY. RIVER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FALL
THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD...AFTER SOME INITIAL CRESTS TODAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/HWJIV/KL
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/KL




000
FXUS61 KALY 021716
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
116 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT
LAKES THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD BRING GENERALLY DRY WEATHER ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND 5 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COULD BRING AN
AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ON SATURDAY TO A FEW AREAS MAINLY
NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER WITH
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 930 AM EDT...STILL HAVE SOME PATCHY CLOUDS AROUND THE
REGION...MAINLY IN OUR SOUTHWESTERN AREAS. LOOK TO BE THE SOME MCS
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM OLD UPSTREAM MCS COMPLEXES BOTH IN THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN JET BRANCHES.

THERE MIGHT ALSO BE A LITTLE SMOKE FROM AN ONGOING FIRE IN
MANITOBA GIVING IT SLIGHTLY "DIRTY" LOOK.

THE H20 ANALYSIS INDICATED A VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE (COLD POOL
ALOFT) WORKING TO OUR SOUTHERN REGIONS WHICH MIGHT TOUCH OFF
PRETTY GOOD CU DEVELOPING AND PERHAPS A FEW SPRINKLES OR SHOWERS.

ON GOING FORECAST HAD ALL OF THIS COVERED WELL SO FOR THIS UPDATE
JUST MINOR TWEAKING OF MAINLY THE HOURLY WEATHER FIELDS.

THE SKY WILL MOST LIKELY VARY BETWEEN PARTLY SUNNY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY FOR A BIT THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...TRENDING
TO MOSTLY SUNNY LATER THIS AFTERNOON FOR AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE
90.

FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-90...LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE WITH
THE APPROACH/PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD POOL. SEVERAL
MESOSCALE MODELS SUCH AS THE LOCAL WRF...HRRR...AND SEVERAL SREF
MEMBERS SUGGEST ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES DEVELOPING
LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...FOR AREAS MAINLY
SOUTH OF THE GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT...ESP FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
HAVE INDICATED SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR THESE AREAS DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES. THESE CONVECTIVE
CLOUDS/SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN QUITE SHALLOW...AS A STRONG MID LEVEL CAP
SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE LIMITING POTENTIAL VERTICAL EXTENT...AND
ICE FORMATION...THEREFORE NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDER AT THIS TIME.

AS FOR MAX TEMPS...LOOK FOR HIGHS 75 TO AROUND 80 IN MOST VALLEYS...
HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL REACH THE MID 60S TO MID 70S ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT...AND GENERALLY LOWER TO MID
70S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY...EXCEPT FOR OCCASIONAL
HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS ON FRIDAY...AS A
WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION. TEMPS
SHOULD BE QUITE COOL TONIGHT...WITH UPPER 40S TO MID 50S FAIRLY
COMMON...AND EVEN SOME LOWER/MID 40S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN VT. FRI
MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH 75-80 IN VALLEYS...AND MAINLY 70-75 ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS MAY ONLY REACH THE
MID/UPPER 60S. FRI NT/SAT AM MINS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH STILL COOL FOR EARLY JULY...WITH UPPER 40S TO
MID 50S IN MOST AREAS.

SAT-SAT NT...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING A PAIR OF UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES AND THEIR POTENTIAL INTERACTION WITH SOME LOW/MID
LEVEL MOISTURE LURKING TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE REGION. ONE
IMPULSE SHOULD PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION IN THE MORNING...WITH
ANOTHER...SLIGHTLY STRONGER IMPULSE APPROACHING FROM THE THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE DAY OR SAT NT. THE FIRST IMPULSE
COULD BRING SOME CLOUDS TO SOUTHERN AREAS IN THE MORNING. AT THIS
TIME...HAVE NOT INDICATED ANY PRECIP...BUT TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED...AS SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS COULD OCCUR IN THE MORNING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT IF
THIS IMPULSE TRACKS A BIT FURTHER NORTH. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE A BIT MORE PROBABLE WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE SECOND IMPULSE...ALTHOUGH THE TIMING WOULD FAVOR
MAINLY WESTERN AREAS WITH SOME LOW CHANCES FOR A LATE DAY/EVENING
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM...SUCH AS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS/SCHOHARIE
VALLEY/MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS. HAVE INDICATED
SLIGHT CHC/LOW CHC POPS FOR THESE AREAS LATE IN THE DAY INTO EARLY
SAT NT...WHILE KEEPING AREAS E OF THE HUDSON RIVER DRY FOR NOW.
OVERALL AREAL COVERAGE SHOULD NOT BE VERY WIDESPREAD EVEN IF THEY
DO REACH THESE AREAS. OTHERWISE...MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER
80S IN VALLEYS AND 70S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH SAT NT/SUN
AM MINS FALLING INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO START OFF DRY AS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY MORNING AND
SETTLES ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. THERE SHOULD BE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL BOTH DAYS. EXPECT HIGHS ON BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY TO BE IN
THE MID 70S TO MID 80S WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S AND MONDAY
NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

A RETURN TO UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS FIRST A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE FA ON TUESDAY
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY FOR SUNDAY. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE 70S TO LOWER
80S.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...

A VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE HAS RESULTED IN SCT-BKN CU BASES THIS
AFTERNOON...ABOVE 3000 FEET (THOUGH PRETTY CLOSE TO THAT THRESHOLD
AT KPSF). THERE COULD BE A SPRINKLE ESPECIALLY AT KPSF...BUT NO
IMPACT EXPECTED.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NW TO N 5-10KTS THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ON BY TONIGHT AND WE LOOSE THE SURFACE
HEATING. THAT WILL LEAVE US WITH A MAINLY CLEAR SKY AND ANY WIND
WILL BECOME LIGHT OR CALM.

THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SOME RADIATIONAL FOG TO DEVELOP. IT
APPEARS THE "CROSSOVER" TEMPERATURE WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S. IT
LOOKS AS IF ONLY KGFL WILL DIP MUCH BELOW 50 TONIGHT SO WE DID
CONTINUE THE IDEA OF IFR FOG FORMING AT THAT STATION AFTER
08Z...LASTING UNTIL 11Z. AT KPSF...OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO BE
AROUND 50...SO WE PLACED MVFR FOG AT THAT SITE BETWEEN 08Z-11Z.

THE OTHER TWO TAFS LOOK TO REMAIN JUST ABOVE 50 OVERNIGHT SO FOR
NOW...JUST USED SHALLOW FOG (MIFG) AT BOTH THESE TAF SITES BETWEEN
08Z-11Z.

AFTER 11Z...WE WILL HAVE A REALLY NICE AVIATION DAY FOR FLYING.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY...A LIGHT
NORTH WIND AROUND 5KTS AND FEW-SCT CU DEVELOPING 4000-5000 FEET.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY...

THERE COULD BE A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON BUT THAT SHOULD BE ABOUT IT. THERE WILL BE THE USUAL
NEARLY FULL RECOVERY EACH OF THE NEXT SEVERAL NIGHTS WITH LIGHT OR
CALM WINDS...YIELDING TO THE FORMATION OF DEW. RH VALUES WILL DROP
EACH AFTERNOON INTO THE 30S IN THE VALLEYS/40S HIGHER TERRAIN.
SUNSHINE WILL PREVAIL ALTHOUGH WILL BE MIXED WITH A GOOD DEAL OF
AFTERNOON CLOUDINESS ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF ALBANY.

THE WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT MAINLY FROM A NORTH TO NORTHWEST
DIRECTION UNDER 10 MPH DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AFTER THE WIDESPREAD 1-2 INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER THE PAST TWO
DAYS...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
SATURDAY...OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN SUNDAY
THROUGH LATE MONDAY. RIVER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FALL
THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD...AFTER SOME INITIAL CRESTS TODAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/HWJIV/KL
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/KL




000
FXUS61 KALY 021716
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
116 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT
LAKES THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD BRING GENERALLY DRY WEATHER ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND 5 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COULD BRING AN
AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ON SATURDAY TO A FEW AREAS MAINLY
NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER WITH
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 930 AM EDT...STILL HAVE SOME PATCHY CLOUDS AROUND THE
REGION...MAINLY IN OUR SOUTHWESTERN AREAS. LOOK TO BE THE SOME MCS
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM OLD UPSTREAM MCS COMPLEXES BOTH IN THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN JET BRANCHES.

THERE MIGHT ALSO BE A LITTLE SMOKE FROM AN ONGOING FIRE IN
MANITOBA GIVING IT SLIGHTLY "DIRTY" LOOK.

THE H20 ANALYSIS INDICATED A VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE (COLD POOL
ALOFT) WORKING TO OUR SOUTHERN REGIONS WHICH MIGHT TOUCH OFF
PRETTY GOOD CU DEVELOPING AND PERHAPS A FEW SPRINKLES OR SHOWERS.

ON GOING FORECAST HAD ALL OF THIS COVERED WELL SO FOR THIS UPDATE
JUST MINOR TWEAKING OF MAINLY THE HOURLY WEATHER FIELDS.

THE SKY WILL MOST LIKELY VARY BETWEEN PARTLY SUNNY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY FOR A BIT THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...TRENDING
TO MOSTLY SUNNY LATER THIS AFTERNOON FOR AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE
90.

FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-90...LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE WITH
THE APPROACH/PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD POOL. SEVERAL
MESOSCALE MODELS SUCH AS THE LOCAL WRF...HRRR...AND SEVERAL SREF
MEMBERS SUGGEST ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES DEVELOPING
LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...FOR AREAS MAINLY
SOUTH OF THE GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT...ESP FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
HAVE INDICATED SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR THESE AREAS DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES. THESE CONVECTIVE
CLOUDS/SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN QUITE SHALLOW...AS A STRONG MID LEVEL CAP
SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE LIMITING POTENTIAL VERTICAL EXTENT...AND
ICE FORMATION...THEREFORE NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDER AT THIS TIME.

AS FOR MAX TEMPS...LOOK FOR HIGHS 75 TO AROUND 80 IN MOST VALLEYS...
HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL REACH THE MID 60S TO MID 70S ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT...AND GENERALLY LOWER TO MID
70S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY...EXCEPT FOR OCCASIONAL
HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS ON FRIDAY...AS A
WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION. TEMPS
SHOULD BE QUITE COOL TONIGHT...WITH UPPER 40S TO MID 50S FAIRLY
COMMON...AND EVEN SOME LOWER/MID 40S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN VT. FRI
MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH 75-80 IN VALLEYS...AND MAINLY 70-75 ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS MAY ONLY REACH THE
MID/UPPER 60S. FRI NT/SAT AM MINS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH STILL COOL FOR EARLY JULY...WITH UPPER 40S TO
MID 50S IN MOST AREAS.

SAT-SAT NT...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING A PAIR OF UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES AND THEIR POTENTIAL INTERACTION WITH SOME LOW/MID
LEVEL MOISTURE LURKING TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE REGION. ONE
IMPULSE SHOULD PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION IN THE MORNING...WITH
ANOTHER...SLIGHTLY STRONGER IMPULSE APPROACHING FROM THE THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE DAY OR SAT NT. THE FIRST IMPULSE
COULD BRING SOME CLOUDS TO SOUTHERN AREAS IN THE MORNING. AT THIS
TIME...HAVE NOT INDICATED ANY PRECIP...BUT TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED...AS SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS COULD OCCUR IN THE MORNING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT IF
THIS IMPULSE TRACKS A BIT FURTHER NORTH. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE A BIT MORE PROBABLE WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE SECOND IMPULSE...ALTHOUGH THE TIMING WOULD FAVOR
MAINLY WESTERN AREAS WITH SOME LOW CHANCES FOR A LATE DAY/EVENING
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM...SUCH AS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS/SCHOHARIE
VALLEY/MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS. HAVE INDICATED
SLIGHT CHC/LOW CHC POPS FOR THESE AREAS LATE IN THE DAY INTO EARLY
SAT NT...WHILE KEEPING AREAS E OF THE HUDSON RIVER DRY FOR NOW.
OVERALL AREAL COVERAGE SHOULD NOT BE VERY WIDESPREAD EVEN IF THEY
DO REACH THESE AREAS. OTHERWISE...MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER
80S IN VALLEYS AND 70S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH SAT NT/SUN
AM MINS FALLING INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO START OFF DRY AS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY MORNING AND
SETTLES ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. THERE SHOULD BE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL BOTH DAYS. EXPECT HIGHS ON BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY TO BE IN
THE MID 70S TO MID 80S WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S AND MONDAY
NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

A RETURN TO UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS FIRST A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE FA ON TUESDAY
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY FOR SUNDAY. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE 70S TO LOWER
80S.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...

A VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE HAS RESULTED IN SCT-BKN CU BASES THIS
AFTERNOON...ABOVE 3000 FEET (THOUGH PRETTY CLOSE TO THAT THRESHOLD
AT KPSF). THERE COULD BE A SPRINKLE ESPECIALLY AT KPSF...BUT NO
IMPACT EXPECTED.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NW TO N 5-10KTS THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ON BY TONIGHT AND WE LOOSE THE SURFACE
HEATING. THAT WILL LEAVE US WITH A MAINLY CLEAR SKY AND ANY WIND
WILL BECOME LIGHT OR CALM.

THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SOME RADIATIONAL FOG TO DEVELOP. IT
APPEARS THE "CROSSOVER" TEMPERATURE WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S. IT
LOOKS AS IF ONLY KGFL WILL DIP MUCH BELOW 50 TONIGHT SO WE DID
CONTINUE THE IDEA OF IFR FOG FORMING AT THAT STATION AFTER
08Z...LASTING UNTIL 11Z. AT KPSF...OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO BE
AROUND 50...SO WE PLACED MVFR FOG AT THAT SITE BETWEEN 08Z-11Z.

THE OTHER TWO TAFS LOOK TO REMAIN JUST ABOVE 50 OVERNIGHT SO FOR
NOW...JUST USED SHALLOW FOG (MIFG) AT BOTH THESE TAF SITES BETWEEN
08Z-11Z.

AFTER 11Z...WE WILL HAVE A REALLY NICE AVIATION DAY FOR FLYING.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY...A LIGHT
NORTH WIND AROUND 5KTS AND FEW-SCT CU DEVELOPING 4000-5000 FEET.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY...

THERE COULD BE A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON BUT THAT SHOULD BE ABOUT IT. THERE WILL BE THE USUAL
NEARLY FULL RECOVERY EACH OF THE NEXT SEVERAL NIGHTS WITH LIGHT OR
CALM WINDS...YIELDING TO THE FORMATION OF DEW. RH VALUES WILL DROP
EACH AFTERNOON INTO THE 30S IN THE VALLEYS/40S HIGHER TERRAIN.
SUNSHINE WILL PREVAIL ALTHOUGH WILL BE MIXED WITH A GOOD DEAL OF
AFTERNOON CLOUDINESS ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF ALBANY.

THE WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT MAINLY FROM A NORTH TO NORTHWEST
DIRECTION UNDER 10 MPH DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AFTER THE WIDESPREAD 1-2 INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER THE PAST TWO
DAYS...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
SATURDAY...OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN SUNDAY
THROUGH LATE MONDAY. RIVER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FALL
THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD...AFTER SOME INITIAL CRESTS TODAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/HWJIV/KL
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/KL




000
FXUS61 KALY 021716
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
116 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT
LAKES THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD BRING GENERALLY DRY WEATHER ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND 5 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COULD BRING AN
AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ON SATURDAY TO A FEW AREAS MAINLY
NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER WITH
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 930 AM EDT...STILL HAVE SOME PATCHY CLOUDS AROUND THE
REGION...MAINLY IN OUR SOUTHWESTERN AREAS. LOOK TO BE THE SOME MCS
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM OLD UPSTREAM MCS COMPLEXES BOTH IN THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN JET BRANCHES.

THERE MIGHT ALSO BE A LITTLE SMOKE FROM AN ONGOING FIRE IN
MANITOBA GIVING IT SLIGHTLY "DIRTY" LOOK.

THE H20 ANALYSIS INDICATED A VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE (COLD POOL
ALOFT) WORKING TO OUR SOUTHERN REGIONS WHICH MIGHT TOUCH OFF
PRETTY GOOD CU DEVELOPING AND PERHAPS A FEW SPRINKLES OR SHOWERS.

ON GOING FORECAST HAD ALL OF THIS COVERED WELL SO FOR THIS UPDATE
JUST MINOR TWEAKING OF MAINLY THE HOURLY WEATHER FIELDS.

THE SKY WILL MOST LIKELY VARY BETWEEN PARTLY SUNNY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY FOR A BIT THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...TRENDING
TO MOSTLY SUNNY LATER THIS AFTERNOON FOR AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE
90.

FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-90...LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE WITH
THE APPROACH/PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD POOL. SEVERAL
MESOSCALE MODELS SUCH AS THE LOCAL WRF...HRRR...AND SEVERAL SREF
MEMBERS SUGGEST ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES DEVELOPING
LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...FOR AREAS MAINLY
SOUTH OF THE GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT...ESP FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
HAVE INDICATED SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR THESE AREAS DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES. THESE CONVECTIVE
CLOUDS/SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN QUITE SHALLOW...AS A STRONG MID LEVEL CAP
SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE LIMITING POTENTIAL VERTICAL EXTENT...AND
ICE FORMATION...THEREFORE NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDER AT THIS TIME.

AS FOR MAX TEMPS...LOOK FOR HIGHS 75 TO AROUND 80 IN MOST VALLEYS...
HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL REACH THE MID 60S TO MID 70S ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT...AND GENERALLY LOWER TO MID
70S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY...EXCEPT FOR OCCASIONAL
HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS ON FRIDAY...AS A
WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION. TEMPS
SHOULD BE QUITE COOL TONIGHT...WITH UPPER 40S TO MID 50S FAIRLY
COMMON...AND EVEN SOME LOWER/MID 40S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN VT. FRI
MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH 75-80 IN VALLEYS...AND MAINLY 70-75 ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS MAY ONLY REACH THE
MID/UPPER 60S. FRI NT/SAT AM MINS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH STILL COOL FOR EARLY JULY...WITH UPPER 40S TO
MID 50S IN MOST AREAS.

SAT-SAT NT...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING A PAIR OF UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES AND THEIR POTENTIAL INTERACTION WITH SOME LOW/MID
LEVEL MOISTURE LURKING TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE REGION. ONE
IMPULSE SHOULD PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION IN THE MORNING...WITH
ANOTHER...SLIGHTLY STRONGER IMPULSE APPROACHING FROM THE THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE DAY OR SAT NT. THE FIRST IMPULSE
COULD BRING SOME CLOUDS TO SOUTHERN AREAS IN THE MORNING. AT THIS
TIME...HAVE NOT INDICATED ANY PRECIP...BUT TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED...AS SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS COULD OCCUR IN THE MORNING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT IF
THIS IMPULSE TRACKS A BIT FURTHER NORTH. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE A BIT MORE PROBABLE WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE SECOND IMPULSE...ALTHOUGH THE TIMING WOULD FAVOR
MAINLY WESTERN AREAS WITH SOME LOW CHANCES FOR A LATE DAY/EVENING
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM...SUCH AS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS/SCHOHARIE
VALLEY/MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS. HAVE INDICATED
SLIGHT CHC/LOW CHC POPS FOR THESE AREAS LATE IN THE DAY INTO EARLY
SAT NT...WHILE KEEPING AREAS E OF THE HUDSON RIVER DRY FOR NOW.
OVERALL AREAL COVERAGE SHOULD NOT BE VERY WIDESPREAD EVEN IF THEY
DO REACH THESE AREAS. OTHERWISE...MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER
80S IN VALLEYS AND 70S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH SAT NT/SUN
AM MINS FALLING INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO START OFF DRY AS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY MORNING AND
SETTLES ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. THERE SHOULD BE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL BOTH DAYS. EXPECT HIGHS ON BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY TO BE IN
THE MID 70S TO MID 80S WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S AND MONDAY
NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

A RETURN TO UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS FIRST A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE FA ON TUESDAY
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY FOR SUNDAY. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE 70S TO LOWER
80S.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...

A VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE HAS RESULTED IN SCT-BKN CU BASES THIS
AFTERNOON...ABOVE 3000 FEET (THOUGH PRETTY CLOSE TO THAT THRESHOLD
AT KPSF). THERE COULD BE A SPRINKLE ESPECIALLY AT KPSF...BUT NO
IMPACT EXPECTED.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NW TO N 5-10KTS THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ON BY TONIGHT AND WE LOOSE THE SURFACE
HEATING. THAT WILL LEAVE US WITH A MAINLY CLEAR SKY AND ANY WIND
WILL BECOME LIGHT OR CALM.

THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SOME RADIATIONAL FOG TO DEVELOP. IT
APPEARS THE "CROSSOVER" TEMPERATURE WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S. IT
LOOKS AS IF ONLY KGFL WILL DIP MUCH BELOW 50 TONIGHT SO WE DID
CONTINUE THE IDEA OF IFR FOG FORMING AT THAT STATION AFTER
08Z...LASTING UNTIL 11Z. AT KPSF...OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO BE
AROUND 50...SO WE PLACED MVFR FOG AT THAT SITE BETWEEN 08Z-11Z.

THE OTHER TWO TAFS LOOK TO REMAIN JUST ABOVE 50 OVERNIGHT SO FOR
NOW...JUST USED SHALLOW FOG (MIFG) AT BOTH THESE TAF SITES BETWEEN
08Z-11Z.

AFTER 11Z...WE WILL HAVE A REALLY NICE AVIATION DAY FOR FLYING.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY...A LIGHT
NORTH WIND AROUND 5KTS AND FEW-SCT CU DEVELOPING 4000-5000 FEET.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY...

THERE COULD BE A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON BUT THAT SHOULD BE ABOUT IT. THERE WILL BE THE USUAL
NEARLY FULL RECOVERY EACH OF THE NEXT SEVERAL NIGHTS WITH LIGHT OR
CALM WINDS...YIELDING TO THE FORMATION OF DEW. RH VALUES WILL DROP
EACH AFTERNOON INTO THE 30S IN THE VALLEYS/40S HIGHER TERRAIN.
SUNSHINE WILL PREVAIL ALTHOUGH WILL BE MIXED WITH A GOOD DEAL OF
AFTERNOON CLOUDINESS ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF ALBANY.

THE WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT MAINLY FROM A NORTH TO NORTHWEST
DIRECTION UNDER 10 MPH DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AFTER THE WIDESPREAD 1-2 INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER THE PAST TWO
DAYS...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
SATURDAY...OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN SUNDAY
THROUGH LATE MONDAY. RIVER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FALL
THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD...AFTER SOME INITIAL CRESTS TODAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/HWJIV/KL
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/KL



000
FXUS61 KOKX 021508
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1108 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL LINGER TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD IN FROM TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL
PASS TO THE SOUTH ON INDEPENDENCE DAY. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HAVE EXPANDED AREA ACROSS THE INTERIOR TO INCLUDE MOST OF THE
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND NE NJ FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON. CAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG WITH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AROUND 40
KT. LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE DRY AIR IN THE MIXED LAYER AND LACK OF
A STRONG TRIGGER. TRIGGER LOOKS TO BE A TROUGH JUST NORTH AND WEST
OF THE NYC METRO.

NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF HIGH CLOUDS IN ASSOC WITH WEAK LOW PRES OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC WILL PRODUCE PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ACROSS
LI...WITH MORE SUN TO THE NORTH. HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S.

COASTAL SEA BREEZES SHOULD DEVELOP...AND WILL BE WEAKER THAN THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH TEMPS INLAND.

THERE IS A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK AT THE OCEAN BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP IN/NEAR NE NJ COULD DRIFT E
TOWARD NYC NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD START TO BUILD FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT
INTO FRI...WITH N-NE FLOW AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...THEN WEAK
COASTAL SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE A COOLER LOWER/MID 60S IN MOST PLACES...AND
55-60 ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS WELL NORTH/WEST OF NYC.
HIGHS ON FRI UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER
STILL...MAINLY 75-80.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE 00Z MODEL SUITE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST WEAK LOW PRES WILL TRACK
OFF THE DELMARVA AND OUT TO SEA ON THE 4TH. THIS GIVES THE CWA A
GLANCING BLOW AT BEST...AND MAY ONLY RESULT IN SOME EXTRA CLOUDS
ESPECIALLY LONG ISLAND INTO THE CITY AND NJ. INCLUDED SOME LOW
POPS...MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE...FOR MOST OF THE AREA. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED HOWEVER THAT AT THIS POINT ANY RAIN LOOKS LIGHT AND SPOTTY
AT BEST. THEREAFTER...HI PRES BUILDS IN AND AS A RESULT HAVE GONE
WITH A FAIR FORECAST THRU WED. THE ECMWF DOES HINT AT SOME RAIN
TUE AS RESIDUAL CONVECTION GETS ENTRAINED IN THE UPR RIDGE. THIS
APPEARS TO BE A ROGUE SOLUTION AT THIS TIME HOWEVER SO HAVE KEPT
POPS BELOW 15. DESPITE A DRY AIR MASS SUN- WED WITH PW GENERALLY
AT OR BELOW 1 INCH...THE HUMIDITY WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY
LOW...ESPECIALLY AS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK ARRIVES...AS PERSISTENT
SLY COMPONENT FLOW DRAWS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE CWA FROM THE
ATLANTIC. THIS COULD SET THE STAGE FOR SOME BOUTS OF MORNING FOG
IF WINDS ARE LIGHT ENOUGH. TEMPS THRU THE LONG TERM CLOSE TO THE
GMOS25 AND MAINLY AT OR BELOW CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR NORTH...AS WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE PASS TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE
AT ALL TERMINALS MID-LATE AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE AT
ANY GIVEN TERMINAL IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWER.THUNDERSTORM IS AT LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY/NE NJ TERMINALS.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW GIVES WAY TO SEABREEZES BY LATE THIS
MORNING-MID AFTERNOON FOR ALL BUT KSWF...WHERE FLOW WILL EITHER GO
WESTERLY AT UNDER 10 KT OR STAY LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WINDS AGAIN
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGHOUT EARLY THIS EVENING.


     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SEABREEZE MAY BE OFF +/- 1-2
HOURS. LOW CHANCE OF OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 15 KT WITH SEABREEZE
THIS AFTERNOON. 10 PERCENT OR LESS CHANCE OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
18-00Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SEABREEZE MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS.
10 PERCENT OR LESS CHANCE OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM 18-00Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SEABREEZE MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS.
20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM 18-00Z.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SEABREEZE MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS.
20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM 18-00Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SEABREEZE MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS.
20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM 18-00Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SEABREEZE MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS.
10 PERCENT OR LESS CHANCE OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM 18-00Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.FRIDAY...VFR. SEABREEZE POSSIBLE.
.FRI NIGHT-SATURDAY...A CHANCE OF MVFR OR LOWER IF ANY RAIN.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA HAS BEEN CANCELED FROM MORICHES TO MONTAUK POINT AS SEAS HAVE
DROPPED TO 4 FT AT THE OFFSHORE BUOYS.

SEAS WILL GET CLOSE TO 5 FT ON THE OCEAN ON SAT AS LOW PRES PASSES
TO THE S. ELSEWHERE...NE WINDS SHOULD BE IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL THEN LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS SUN-WED
AS A BROAD AREA OF HI PRES SETTLES IN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A FULL MOON...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 3/4 TO 1 1/2 FT ARE
NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED AT THE
PEAK OF THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDES THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
MINOR BENCHMARKS COULD BRIEFLY BE TOUCHED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE
BAYS OF NASSAU COUNTY THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY
     FOR ANZ350.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JMC/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...JMC/GOODMAN/DW
SHORT TERM...JMC/GOODMAN
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...24/MALOIT
MARINE...JMC/GOODMAN/DW
HYDROLOGY...JMC/GOODMAN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KOKX 021508
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1108 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL LINGER TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD IN FROM TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL
PASS TO THE SOUTH ON INDEPENDENCE DAY. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HAVE EXPANDED AREA ACROSS THE INTERIOR TO INCLUDE MOST OF THE
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND NE NJ FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON. CAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG WITH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AROUND 40
KT. LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE DRY AIR IN THE MIXED LAYER AND LACK OF
A STRONG TRIGGER. TRIGGER LOOKS TO BE A TROUGH JUST NORTH AND WEST
OF THE NYC METRO.

NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF HIGH CLOUDS IN ASSOC WITH WEAK LOW PRES OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC WILL PRODUCE PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ACROSS
LI...WITH MORE SUN TO THE NORTH. HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S.

COASTAL SEA BREEZES SHOULD DEVELOP...AND WILL BE WEAKER THAN THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH TEMPS INLAND.

THERE IS A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK AT THE OCEAN BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP IN/NEAR NE NJ COULD DRIFT E
TOWARD NYC NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD START TO BUILD FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT
INTO FRI...WITH N-NE FLOW AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...THEN WEAK
COASTAL SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE A COOLER LOWER/MID 60S IN MOST PLACES...AND
55-60 ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS WELL NORTH/WEST OF NYC.
HIGHS ON FRI UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER
STILL...MAINLY 75-80.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE 00Z MODEL SUITE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST WEAK LOW PRES WILL TRACK
OFF THE DELMARVA AND OUT TO SEA ON THE 4TH. THIS GIVES THE CWA A
GLANCING BLOW AT BEST...AND MAY ONLY RESULT IN SOME EXTRA CLOUDS
ESPECIALLY LONG ISLAND INTO THE CITY AND NJ. INCLUDED SOME LOW
POPS...MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE...FOR MOST OF THE AREA. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED HOWEVER THAT AT THIS POINT ANY RAIN LOOKS LIGHT AND SPOTTY
AT BEST. THEREAFTER...HI PRES BUILDS IN AND AS A RESULT HAVE GONE
WITH A FAIR FORECAST THRU WED. THE ECMWF DOES HINT AT SOME RAIN
TUE AS RESIDUAL CONVECTION GETS ENTRAINED IN THE UPR RIDGE. THIS
APPEARS TO BE A ROGUE SOLUTION AT THIS TIME HOWEVER SO HAVE KEPT
POPS BELOW 15. DESPITE A DRY AIR MASS SUN- WED WITH PW GENERALLY
AT OR BELOW 1 INCH...THE HUMIDITY WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY
LOW...ESPECIALLY AS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK ARRIVES...AS PERSISTENT
SLY COMPONENT FLOW DRAWS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE CWA FROM THE
ATLANTIC. THIS COULD SET THE STAGE FOR SOME BOUTS OF MORNING FOG
IF WINDS ARE LIGHT ENOUGH. TEMPS THRU THE LONG TERM CLOSE TO THE
GMOS25 AND MAINLY AT OR BELOW CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR NORTH...AS WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE PASS TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE
AT ALL TERMINALS MID-LATE AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE AT
ANY GIVEN TERMINAL IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWER.THUNDERSTORM IS AT LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY/NE NJ TERMINALS.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW GIVES WAY TO SEABREEZES BY LATE THIS
MORNING-MID AFTERNOON FOR ALL BUT KSWF...WHERE FLOW WILL EITHER GO
WESTERLY AT UNDER 10 KT OR STAY LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WINDS AGAIN
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGHOUT EARLY THIS EVENING.


     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SEABREEZE MAY BE OFF +/- 1-2
HOURS. LOW CHANCE OF OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 15 KT WITH SEABREEZE
THIS AFTERNOON. 10 PERCENT OR LESS CHANCE OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
18-00Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SEABREEZE MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS.
10 PERCENT OR LESS CHANCE OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM 18-00Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SEABREEZE MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS.
20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM 18-00Z.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SEABREEZE MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS.
20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM 18-00Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SEABREEZE MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS.
20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM 18-00Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SEABREEZE MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS.
10 PERCENT OR LESS CHANCE OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM 18-00Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.FRIDAY...VFR. SEABREEZE POSSIBLE.
.FRI NIGHT-SATURDAY...A CHANCE OF MVFR OR LOWER IF ANY RAIN.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA HAS BEEN CANCELED FROM MORICHES TO MONTAUK POINT AS SEAS HAVE
DROPPED TO 4 FT AT THE OFFSHORE BUOYS.

SEAS WILL GET CLOSE TO 5 FT ON THE OCEAN ON SAT AS LOW PRES PASSES
TO THE S. ELSEWHERE...NE WINDS SHOULD BE IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL THEN LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS SUN-WED
AS A BROAD AREA OF HI PRES SETTLES IN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A FULL MOON...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 3/4 TO 1 1/2 FT ARE
NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED AT THE
PEAK OF THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDES THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
MINOR BENCHMARKS COULD BRIEFLY BE TOUCHED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE
BAYS OF NASSAU COUNTY THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY
     FOR ANZ350.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JMC/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...JMC/GOODMAN/DW
SHORT TERM...JMC/GOODMAN
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...24/MALOIT
MARINE...JMC/GOODMAN/DW
HYDROLOGY...JMC/GOODMAN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 021430
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1030 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED COLD FRONT NEAR THE SOUTH COAST THIS AFTERNOON MOVES
OFFSHORE TONIGHT. ASIDE FROM A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS...AND A SPOT
SHOWER NEAR THE SOUTH COAST ON SATURDAY...DRY WEATHER PREVAILS
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH GRADUALLY WARMING CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

SURFACE OBS SHOW THE FRONTAL WIND SHIFT ACROSS CAPE COD
BAY/CANAL/SOUTH MASS COAST. DRY AIRMASS NORTHWEST OF THIS FRONT
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 50S. A LITTLE MORE HUMID SOUTH OF THE FRONT
WITH DEWS ON CAPE COD AND ISLANDS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

SHORTWAVE SWINGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AS INDICATED BY WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS IS SUPPORTING A WAVE ALONG THE COLD FRONT OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY. THE WAVE WILL MOVE EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND BRING
AN INCREASE IN SKY COVER MOSTLY IN CT-RI-SOUTHEAST MASS. THIS MAY
ALLOW FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG OR SOUTH OF THE FRONT
TOWARD EVENING. NO CHANGES TO POPS FROM EARLIER FORECAST.

TEMPS AT 10 AM WERE MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. TEMPERATURE
PROFILE FROM THE 8 AM ALY SOUNDING SHOWS SUPPORT FOR MAX SFC TEMPS
FROM MIXING AROUND 81 DEGREES. THE EXISTING FORECAST HANDLES THIS
QUITE WELL. THE 10 AM TEMPS AND CLIMATOLOGY ALSO SUGGEST LOW 80S
WITH A FEW MID 80S POSSIBLE IN THE CT VALLEY AND SE MASS/RI.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
WEAK FRONT MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL WAVE
PASSES BY THE BENCHMARK. MAJORITY OF THE RAINFALL WILL STAY SOUTH
OF OUR REGION. HOWEVER...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TOWARD
NANTUCKET...WITH A LOWER RISK OF THESE SHOWERS REACHING AS FAR
NORTH AS CAPE COD...AND AS FAR WEST AS THE VINEYARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

 * LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER ON SATURDAY.
 * GRADUALLY WARMING CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...AMPLIFIED BLOCKING FLOW PATTERN
CONTINUES MAINLY ACROSS THE ERN PACIFIC AND WRN ATLANTIC UNDER
STRONG RIDGING...ESPECIALLY IN THE PACIFIC WHERE THE EPO IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO DIVE STRONGLY NEGATIVE. THIS LEAVES MUCH
OF THE CONUS IN A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW REGIME. NEARLY...BECAUSE VERY
WEAK TROUGHING IS EVIDENT PARTICULARLY AS NRN STREAM ENERGY MOVES
SHIFTS THROUGH HE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE MEAN JET. HOWEVER...UNTIL
ABOUT THE MID PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW
SRN NEW ENGLAND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WRN ATLANTIC RIDGING.
SO EVEN WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE THIS WEEKEND...IT LOOKS TO
MOVE THROUGH WITH LITTLE FANFARE AS SOUNDINGS SHOW DRY/SUBSIDENCE
IN PLACE. WITH MODERATE AGREEMENT BETWEEN OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF
/SOME SMALLER SCALE DIFFERENCES EXIST/ A BLEND WILL BE USED
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. BEYOND THIS...THERE IS SOME SIGNIFICANT
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING A SHIFT AS THE NRN STREAM VORTEX REGAINS
CONTROL ACROSS THE AREA...LEADING TO A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN.

DETAILS...

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT...WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING E FROM
THE GREAT LAKES AND A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE S...WILL
LIKELY SEE CYCLOGENESIS OF A WEAK LOW PRES CENTER WELL TO THE S.
THIS WILL ALSO INTRODUCE RIDGE OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR WHICH LOOKS
TO REMAIN TO THE W. FOR NOW...THE BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO REMAIN NEAR
THE S COAST...CLOSER TO THE DEVELOPING LOW PRES. HOWEVER...COLUMN
REMAINS MOSTLY DRY AND SUGGESTS SOME INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE MOVING
E OF THE REGION. SO SUSPECT ONLY A FEW SPOT SHOWERS TO CONTEND
WITH AT MOST. TEMPS AT H85 ARE AROUND +10C...SO SUSPECT 2M TEMPS
TO REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

SUN INTO TUE...AS STRONG NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN
ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA...THE WARM ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO RIDGE
AMPLIFICATION OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL LEAD
TO FAIRLY STRONG HIGH PRES DEVELOPMENT WHICH MAY LOCK IN PLACE FOR
A FEW DAYS OF DRY WX. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
MODERATING MID LVL TEMPS AND RISING HUMIDITY PARTICULARLY MON AND
TUE. H85 TEMPS INCREASE TO AN AVERAGE OF +12C MON...THEN CLOSER TO
+14C BY TUE. THEREFORE...AWAY FROM COASTLINES /WHERE SEA BREEZES
WILL LIMIT WARMING/ EXPECT TEMPS WARMER THAN EARLY JULY NORMALS.

MID-LATE NEXT WEEK...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...BECAUSE THIS IS SUCH A
ROBUST SHORTWAVE/CUTOFF THAT MODELS ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP...THERE
IS LITTLE AGREEMENT BETWEEN THEM REGARDING TIMING/STRENGTH...AND
ENSEMBLES ARE LITTLE HELP. HOWEVER...WITH FAIRLY WARM/HUMID
CONDITIONS AND AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
TRANSITION TO A WETTER AND MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN TOWARD THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THIS AFTERNOON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. AREAS OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
SHOWERS LIKELY FOR KACK...POSSIBLY REACHING THE S COAST AND CAPE
COD.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. WEAK SEA BREEZES LIKELY MOST DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

LINGERING ROUGH SEAS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON. SO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL PERSIST OVER THESE WATERS FOR A WHILE LONGER.
CHANGEABLE WINDS AS A COLD FRONT FIRST STALLS ACROSS THE
WATERS...THEN MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT. WINDS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KT. ONCE SEAS DIMINISH BELOW 5
FEET...EXPECTING RATHER TRANQUIL BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE MAIN ISSUE AT THAT POINT WOULD BE REDUCED VISIBILITY
IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. A WEEK LOW PRES WILL
PASS WELL S OF THE WATERS. THIS MAY LEAD TO E FLOW REACHING
20-25 KT ON THE SRN WATERS AND A BUILDING SWELL WHICH COULD REACH
5-6 FT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED. OTHERWISE...SOME
SHOWERS AND FOG AT TIMES MAY LEAD TO REDUCED VSBYS...MAINLY ON THE
SRN WATERS AS WELL.

SUN AN MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES WILL MOVE OVER THE WATERS
ALLOWING AND REMNANT SWELL TO SUBSIDE. AFTER WHICH QUIET BOATING
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ255-
     256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ235-
     237.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...WTB/BELK/DOODY
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY



000
FXUS61 KBOX 021430
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1030 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED COLD FRONT NEAR THE SOUTH COAST THIS AFTERNOON MOVES
OFFSHORE TONIGHT. ASIDE FROM A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS...AND A SPOT
SHOWER NEAR THE SOUTH COAST ON SATURDAY...DRY WEATHER PREVAILS
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH GRADUALLY WARMING CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

SURFACE OBS SHOW THE FRONTAL WIND SHIFT ACROSS CAPE COD
BAY/CANAL/SOUTH MASS COAST. DRY AIRMASS NORTHWEST OF THIS FRONT
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 50S. A LITTLE MORE HUMID SOUTH OF THE FRONT
WITH DEWS ON CAPE COD AND ISLANDS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

SHORTWAVE SWINGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AS INDICATED BY WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS IS SUPPORTING A WAVE ALONG THE COLD FRONT OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY. THE WAVE WILL MOVE EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND BRING
AN INCREASE IN SKY COVER MOSTLY IN CT-RI-SOUTHEAST MASS. THIS MAY
ALLOW FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG OR SOUTH OF THE FRONT
TOWARD EVENING. NO CHANGES TO POPS FROM EARLIER FORECAST.

TEMPS AT 10 AM WERE MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. TEMPERATURE
PROFILE FROM THE 8 AM ALY SOUNDING SHOWS SUPPORT FOR MAX SFC TEMPS
FROM MIXING AROUND 81 DEGREES. THE EXISTING FORECAST HANDLES THIS
QUITE WELL. THE 10 AM TEMPS AND CLIMATOLOGY ALSO SUGGEST LOW 80S
WITH A FEW MID 80S POSSIBLE IN THE CT VALLEY AND SE MASS/RI.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
WEAK FRONT MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL WAVE
PASSES BY THE BENCHMARK. MAJORITY OF THE RAINFALL WILL STAY SOUTH
OF OUR REGION. HOWEVER...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TOWARD
NANTUCKET...WITH A LOWER RISK OF THESE SHOWERS REACHING AS FAR
NORTH AS CAPE COD...AND AS FAR WEST AS THE VINEYARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

 * LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER ON SATURDAY.
 * GRADUALLY WARMING CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...AMPLIFIED BLOCKING FLOW PATTERN
CONTINUES MAINLY ACROSS THE ERN PACIFIC AND WRN ATLANTIC UNDER
STRONG RIDGING...ESPECIALLY IN THE PACIFIC WHERE THE EPO IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO DIVE STRONGLY NEGATIVE. THIS LEAVES MUCH
OF THE CONUS IN A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW REGIME. NEARLY...BECAUSE VERY
WEAK TROUGHING IS EVIDENT PARTICULARLY AS NRN STREAM ENERGY MOVES
SHIFTS THROUGH HE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE MEAN JET. HOWEVER...UNTIL
ABOUT THE MID PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW
SRN NEW ENGLAND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WRN ATLANTIC RIDGING.
SO EVEN WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE THIS WEEKEND...IT LOOKS TO
MOVE THROUGH WITH LITTLE FANFARE AS SOUNDINGS SHOW DRY/SUBSIDENCE
IN PLACE. WITH MODERATE AGREEMENT BETWEEN OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF
/SOME SMALLER SCALE DIFFERENCES EXIST/ A BLEND WILL BE USED
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. BEYOND THIS...THERE IS SOME SIGNIFICANT
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING A SHIFT AS THE NRN STREAM VORTEX REGAINS
CONTROL ACROSS THE AREA...LEADING TO A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN.

DETAILS...

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT...WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING E FROM
THE GREAT LAKES AND A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE S...WILL
LIKELY SEE CYCLOGENESIS OF A WEAK LOW PRES CENTER WELL TO THE S.
THIS WILL ALSO INTRODUCE RIDGE OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR WHICH LOOKS
TO REMAIN TO THE W. FOR NOW...THE BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO REMAIN NEAR
THE S COAST...CLOSER TO THE DEVELOPING LOW PRES. HOWEVER...COLUMN
REMAINS MOSTLY DRY AND SUGGESTS SOME INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE MOVING
E OF THE REGION. SO SUSPECT ONLY A FEW SPOT SHOWERS TO CONTEND
WITH AT MOST. TEMPS AT H85 ARE AROUND +10C...SO SUSPECT 2M TEMPS
TO REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

SUN INTO TUE...AS STRONG NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN
ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA...THE WARM ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO RIDGE
AMPLIFICATION OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL LEAD
TO FAIRLY STRONG HIGH PRES DEVELOPMENT WHICH MAY LOCK IN PLACE FOR
A FEW DAYS OF DRY WX. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
MODERATING MID LVL TEMPS AND RISING HUMIDITY PARTICULARLY MON AND
TUE. H85 TEMPS INCREASE TO AN AVERAGE OF +12C MON...THEN CLOSER TO
+14C BY TUE. THEREFORE...AWAY FROM COASTLINES /WHERE SEA BREEZES
WILL LIMIT WARMING/ EXPECT TEMPS WARMER THAN EARLY JULY NORMALS.

MID-LATE NEXT WEEK...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...BECAUSE THIS IS SUCH A
ROBUST SHORTWAVE/CUTOFF THAT MODELS ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP...THERE
IS LITTLE AGREEMENT BETWEEN THEM REGARDING TIMING/STRENGTH...AND
ENSEMBLES ARE LITTLE HELP. HOWEVER...WITH FAIRLY WARM/HUMID
CONDITIONS AND AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
TRANSITION TO A WETTER AND MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN TOWARD THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THIS AFTERNOON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. AREAS OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
SHOWERS LIKELY FOR KACK...POSSIBLY REACHING THE S COAST AND CAPE
COD.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. WEAK SEA BREEZES LIKELY MOST DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

LINGERING ROUGH SEAS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON. SO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL PERSIST OVER THESE WATERS FOR A WHILE LONGER.
CHANGEABLE WINDS AS A COLD FRONT FIRST STALLS ACROSS THE
WATERS...THEN MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT. WINDS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KT. ONCE SEAS DIMINISH BELOW 5
FEET...EXPECTING RATHER TRANQUIL BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE MAIN ISSUE AT THAT POINT WOULD BE REDUCED VISIBILITY
IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. A WEEK LOW PRES WILL
PASS WELL S OF THE WATERS. THIS MAY LEAD TO E FLOW REACHING
20-25 KT ON THE SRN WATERS AND A BUILDING SWELL WHICH COULD REACH
5-6 FT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED. OTHERWISE...SOME
SHOWERS AND FOG AT TIMES MAY LEAD TO REDUCED VSBYS...MAINLY ON THE
SRN WATERS AS WELL.

SUN AN MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES WILL MOVE OVER THE WATERS
ALLOWING AND REMNANT SWELL TO SUBSIDE. AFTER WHICH QUIET BOATING
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ255-
     256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ235-
     237.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...WTB/BELK/DOODY
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY



000
FXUS61 KBOX 021430
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1030 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED COLD FRONT NEAR THE SOUTH COAST THIS AFTERNOON MOVES
OFFSHORE TONIGHT. ASIDE FROM A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS...AND A SPOT
SHOWER NEAR THE SOUTH COAST ON SATURDAY...DRY WEATHER PREVAILS
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH GRADUALLY WARMING CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

SURFACE OBS SHOW THE FRONTAL WIND SHIFT ACROSS CAPE COD
BAY/CANAL/SOUTH MASS COAST. DRY AIRMASS NORTHWEST OF THIS FRONT
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 50S. A LITTLE MORE HUMID SOUTH OF THE FRONT
WITH DEWS ON CAPE COD AND ISLANDS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

SHORTWAVE SWINGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AS INDICATED BY WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS IS SUPPORTING A WAVE ALONG THE COLD FRONT OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY. THE WAVE WILL MOVE EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND BRING
AN INCREASE IN SKY COVER MOSTLY IN CT-RI-SOUTHEAST MASS. THIS MAY
ALLOW FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG OR SOUTH OF THE FRONT
TOWARD EVENING. NO CHANGES TO POPS FROM EARLIER FORECAST.

TEMPS AT 10 AM WERE MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. TEMPERATURE
PROFILE FROM THE 8 AM ALY SOUNDING SHOWS SUPPORT FOR MAX SFC TEMPS
FROM MIXING AROUND 81 DEGREES. THE EXISTING FORECAST HANDLES THIS
QUITE WELL. THE 10 AM TEMPS AND CLIMATOLOGY ALSO SUGGEST LOW 80S
WITH A FEW MID 80S POSSIBLE IN THE CT VALLEY AND SE MASS/RI.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
WEAK FRONT MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL WAVE
PASSES BY THE BENCHMARK. MAJORITY OF THE RAINFALL WILL STAY SOUTH
OF OUR REGION. HOWEVER...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TOWARD
NANTUCKET...WITH A LOWER RISK OF THESE SHOWERS REACHING AS FAR
NORTH AS CAPE COD...AND AS FAR WEST AS THE VINEYARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

 * LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER ON SATURDAY.
 * GRADUALLY WARMING CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...AMPLIFIED BLOCKING FLOW PATTERN
CONTINUES MAINLY ACROSS THE ERN PACIFIC AND WRN ATLANTIC UNDER
STRONG RIDGING...ESPECIALLY IN THE PACIFIC WHERE THE EPO IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO DIVE STRONGLY NEGATIVE. THIS LEAVES MUCH
OF THE CONUS IN A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW REGIME. NEARLY...BECAUSE VERY
WEAK TROUGHING IS EVIDENT PARTICULARLY AS NRN STREAM ENERGY MOVES
SHIFTS THROUGH HE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE MEAN JET. HOWEVER...UNTIL
ABOUT THE MID PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW
SRN NEW ENGLAND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WRN ATLANTIC RIDGING.
SO EVEN WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE THIS WEEKEND...IT LOOKS TO
MOVE THROUGH WITH LITTLE FANFARE AS SOUNDINGS SHOW DRY/SUBSIDENCE
IN PLACE. WITH MODERATE AGREEMENT BETWEEN OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF
/SOME SMALLER SCALE DIFFERENCES EXIST/ A BLEND WILL BE USED
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. BEYOND THIS...THERE IS SOME SIGNIFICANT
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING A SHIFT AS THE NRN STREAM VORTEX REGAINS
CONTROL ACROSS THE AREA...LEADING TO A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN.

DETAILS...

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT...WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING E FROM
THE GREAT LAKES AND A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE S...WILL
LIKELY SEE CYCLOGENESIS OF A WEAK LOW PRES CENTER WELL TO THE S.
THIS WILL ALSO INTRODUCE RIDGE OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR WHICH LOOKS
TO REMAIN TO THE W. FOR NOW...THE BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO REMAIN NEAR
THE S COAST...CLOSER TO THE DEVELOPING LOW PRES. HOWEVER...COLUMN
REMAINS MOSTLY DRY AND SUGGESTS SOME INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE MOVING
E OF THE REGION. SO SUSPECT ONLY A FEW SPOT SHOWERS TO CONTEND
WITH AT MOST. TEMPS AT H85 ARE AROUND +10C...SO SUSPECT 2M TEMPS
TO REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

SUN INTO TUE...AS STRONG NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN
ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA...THE WARM ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO RIDGE
AMPLIFICATION OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL LEAD
TO FAIRLY STRONG HIGH PRES DEVELOPMENT WHICH MAY LOCK IN PLACE FOR
A FEW DAYS OF DRY WX. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
MODERATING MID LVL TEMPS AND RISING HUMIDITY PARTICULARLY MON AND
TUE. H85 TEMPS INCREASE TO AN AVERAGE OF +12C MON...THEN CLOSER TO
+14C BY TUE. THEREFORE...AWAY FROM COASTLINES /WHERE SEA BREEZES
WILL LIMIT WARMING/ EXPECT TEMPS WARMER THAN EARLY JULY NORMALS.

MID-LATE NEXT WEEK...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...BECAUSE THIS IS SUCH A
ROBUST SHORTWAVE/CUTOFF THAT MODELS ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP...THERE
IS LITTLE AGREEMENT BETWEEN THEM REGARDING TIMING/STRENGTH...AND
ENSEMBLES ARE LITTLE HELP. HOWEVER...WITH FAIRLY WARM/HUMID
CONDITIONS AND AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
TRANSITION TO A WETTER AND MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN TOWARD THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THIS AFTERNOON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. AREAS OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
SHOWERS LIKELY FOR KACK...POSSIBLY REACHING THE S COAST AND CAPE
COD.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. WEAK SEA BREEZES LIKELY MOST DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

LINGERING ROUGH SEAS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON. SO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL PERSIST OVER THESE WATERS FOR A WHILE LONGER.
CHANGEABLE WINDS AS A COLD FRONT FIRST STALLS ACROSS THE
WATERS...THEN MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT. WINDS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KT. ONCE SEAS DIMINISH BELOW 5
FEET...EXPECTING RATHER TRANQUIL BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE MAIN ISSUE AT THAT POINT WOULD BE REDUCED VISIBILITY
IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. A WEEK LOW PRES WILL
PASS WELL S OF THE WATERS. THIS MAY LEAD TO E FLOW REACHING
20-25 KT ON THE SRN WATERS AND A BUILDING SWELL WHICH COULD REACH
5-6 FT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED. OTHERWISE...SOME
SHOWERS AND FOG AT TIMES MAY LEAD TO REDUCED VSBYS...MAINLY ON THE
SRN WATERS AS WELL.

SUN AN MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES WILL MOVE OVER THE WATERS
ALLOWING AND REMNANT SWELL TO SUBSIDE. AFTER WHICH QUIET BOATING
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ255-
     256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ235-
     237.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...WTB/BELK/DOODY
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY



000
FXUS61 KBOX 021430
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1030 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED COLD FRONT NEAR THE SOUTH COAST THIS AFTERNOON MOVES
OFFSHORE TONIGHT. ASIDE FROM A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS...AND A SPOT
SHOWER NEAR THE SOUTH COAST ON SATURDAY...DRY WEATHER PREVAILS
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH GRADUALLY WARMING CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

SURFACE OBS SHOW THE FRONTAL WIND SHIFT ACROSS CAPE COD
BAY/CANAL/SOUTH MASS COAST. DRY AIRMASS NORTHWEST OF THIS FRONT
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 50S. A LITTLE MORE HUMID SOUTH OF THE FRONT
WITH DEWS ON CAPE COD AND ISLANDS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

SHORTWAVE SWINGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AS INDICATED BY WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS IS SUPPORTING A WAVE ALONG THE COLD FRONT OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY. THE WAVE WILL MOVE EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND BRING
AN INCREASE IN SKY COVER MOSTLY IN CT-RI-SOUTHEAST MASS. THIS MAY
ALLOW FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG OR SOUTH OF THE FRONT
TOWARD EVENING. NO CHANGES TO POPS FROM EARLIER FORECAST.

TEMPS AT 10 AM WERE MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. TEMPERATURE
PROFILE FROM THE 8 AM ALY SOUNDING SHOWS SUPPORT FOR MAX SFC TEMPS
FROM MIXING AROUND 81 DEGREES. THE EXISTING FORECAST HANDLES THIS
QUITE WELL. THE 10 AM TEMPS AND CLIMATOLOGY ALSO SUGGEST LOW 80S
WITH A FEW MID 80S POSSIBLE IN THE CT VALLEY AND SE MASS/RI.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
WEAK FRONT MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL WAVE
PASSES BY THE BENCHMARK. MAJORITY OF THE RAINFALL WILL STAY SOUTH
OF OUR REGION. HOWEVER...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TOWARD
NANTUCKET...WITH A LOWER RISK OF THESE SHOWERS REACHING AS FAR
NORTH AS CAPE COD...AND AS FAR WEST AS THE VINEYARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

 * LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER ON SATURDAY.
 * GRADUALLY WARMING CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...AMPLIFIED BLOCKING FLOW PATTERN
CONTINUES MAINLY ACROSS THE ERN PACIFIC AND WRN ATLANTIC UNDER
STRONG RIDGING...ESPECIALLY IN THE PACIFIC WHERE THE EPO IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO DIVE STRONGLY NEGATIVE. THIS LEAVES MUCH
OF THE CONUS IN A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW REGIME. NEARLY...BECAUSE VERY
WEAK TROUGHING IS EVIDENT PARTICULARLY AS NRN STREAM ENERGY MOVES
SHIFTS THROUGH HE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE MEAN JET. HOWEVER...UNTIL
ABOUT THE MID PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW
SRN NEW ENGLAND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WRN ATLANTIC RIDGING.
SO EVEN WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE THIS WEEKEND...IT LOOKS TO
MOVE THROUGH WITH LITTLE FANFARE AS SOUNDINGS SHOW DRY/SUBSIDENCE
IN PLACE. WITH MODERATE AGREEMENT BETWEEN OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF
/SOME SMALLER SCALE DIFFERENCES EXIST/ A BLEND WILL BE USED
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. BEYOND THIS...THERE IS SOME SIGNIFICANT
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING A SHIFT AS THE NRN STREAM VORTEX REGAINS
CONTROL ACROSS THE AREA...LEADING TO A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN.

DETAILS...

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT...WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING E FROM
THE GREAT LAKES AND A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE S...WILL
LIKELY SEE CYCLOGENESIS OF A WEAK LOW PRES CENTER WELL TO THE S.
THIS WILL ALSO INTRODUCE RIDGE OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR WHICH LOOKS
TO REMAIN TO THE W. FOR NOW...THE BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO REMAIN NEAR
THE S COAST...CLOSER TO THE DEVELOPING LOW PRES. HOWEVER...COLUMN
REMAINS MOSTLY DRY AND SUGGESTS SOME INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE MOVING
E OF THE REGION. SO SUSPECT ONLY A FEW SPOT SHOWERS TO CONTEND
WITH AT MOST. TEMPS AT H85 ARE AROUND +10C...SO SUSPECT 2M TEMPS
TO REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

SUN INTO TUE...AS STRONG NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN
ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA...THE WARM ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO RIDGE
AMPLIFICATION OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL LEAD
TO FAIRLY STRONG HIGH PRES DEVELOPMENT WHICH MAY LOCK IN PLACE FOR
A FEW DAYS OF DRY WX. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
MODERATING MID LVL TEMPS AND RISING HUMIDITY PARTICULARLY MON AND
TUE. H85 TEMPS INCREASE TO AN AVERAGE OF +12C MON...THEN CLOSER TO
+14C BY TUE. THEREFORE...AWAY FROM COASTLINES /WHERE SEA BREEZES
WILL LIMIT WARMING/ EXPECT TEMPS WARMER THAN EARLY JULY NORMALS.

MID-LATE NEXT WEEK...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...BECAUSE THIS IS SUCH A
ROBUST SHORTWAVE/CUTOFF THAT MODELS ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP...THERE
IS LITTLE AGREEMENT BETWEEN THEM REGARDING TIMING/STRENGTH...AND
ENSEMBLES ARE LITTLE HELP. HOWEVER...WITH FAIRLY WARM/HUMID
CONDITIONS AND AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
TRANSITION TO A WETTER AND MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN TOWARD THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THIS AFTERNOON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. AREAS OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
SHOWERS LIKELY FOR KACK...POSSIBLY REACHING THE S COAST AND CAPE
COD.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. WEAK SEA BREEZES LIKELY MOST DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

LINGERING ROUGH SEAS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON. SO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL PERSIST OVER THESE WATERS FOR A WHILE LONGER.
CHANGEABLE WINDS AS A COLD FRONT FIRST STALLS ACROSS THE
WATERS...THEN MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT. WINDS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KT. ONCE SEAS DIMINISH BELOW 5
FEET...EXPECTING RATHER TRANQUIL BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE MAIN ISSUE AT THAT POINT WOULD BE REDUCED VISIBILITY
IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. A WEEK LOW PRES WILL
PASS WELL S OF THE WATERS. THIS MAY LEAD TO E FLOW REACHING
20-25 KT ON THE SRN WATERS AND A BUILDING SWELL WHICH COULD REACH
5-6 FT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED. OTHERWISE...SOME
SHOWERS AND FOG AT TIMES MAY LEAD TO REDUCED VSBYS...MAINLY ON THE
SRN WATERS AS WELL.

SUN AN MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES WILL MOVE OVER THE WATERS
ALLOWING AND REMNANT SWELL TO SUBSIDE. AFTER WHICH QUIET BOATING
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ255-
     256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ235-
     237.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...WTB/BELK/DOODY
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY



000
FXUS61 KALY 021337
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
937 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT
LAKES THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD BRING GENERALLY DRY WEATHER ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND 5 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COULD BRING AN
AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ON SATURDAY TO A FEW AREAS MAINLY
NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER WITH
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 930 AM EDT...STILL HAVE SOME PATCHY CLOUDS AROUND THE
REGION...MAINLY IN OUR SOUTHWESTERN AREAS. LOOK TO BE THE SOME MCS
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM OLD UPSTREAM MCS COMPLEXES BOTH IN THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN JET BRANCHES.

THERE MIGHT ALSO BE A LITTLE SMOKE FROM AN ONGOING FIRE IN
MANITOBA GIVING IT SLIGHTLY "DIRTY" LOOK.

THE H20 ANALYSIS INDICATED A VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE (COLD POOL
ALOFT) WORKING TO OUR SOUTHERN REGIONS WHICH MIGHT TOUCH OFF
PRETTY GOOD CU DEVELOPING AND PERHAPS A FEW SPRINKLES OR SHOWERS.

ON GOING FORECAST HAD ALL OF THIS COVERED WELL SO FOR THIS UPDATE
JUST MINOR TWEAKING OF MAINLY THE HOURLY WEATHER FIELDS.

THE SKY WILL MOST LIKELY VARY BETWEEN PARTLY SUNNY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY FOR A BIT THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...TRENDING
TO MOSTLY SUNNY LATER THIS AFTERNOON FOR AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE
90.

FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-90...LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE WITH
THE APPROACH/PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD POOL. SEVERAL
MESOSCALE MODELS SUCH AS THE LOCAL WRF...HRRR...AND SEVERAL SREF
MEMBERS SUGGEST ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES DEVELOPING
LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...FOR AREAS MAINLY
SOUTH OF THE GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT...ESP FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
HAVE INDICATED SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR THESE AREAS DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES. THESE CONVECTIVE
CLOUDS/SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN QUITE SHALLOW...AS A STRONG MID LEVEL CAP
SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE LIMITING POTENTIAL VERTICAL EXTENT...AND
ICE FORMATION...THEREFORE NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDER AT THIS TIME.

AS FOR MAX TEMPS...LOOK FOR HIGHS 75 TO AROUND 80 IN MOST VALLEYS...
HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL REACH THE MID 60S TO MID 70S ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT...AND GENERALLY LOWER TO MID
70S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY...EXCEPT FOR OCCASIONAL
HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS ON FRIDAY...AS A
WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION. TEMPS
SHOULD BE QUITE COOL TONIGHT...WITH UPPER 40S TO MID 50S FAIRLY
COMMON...AND EVEN SOME LOWER/MID 40S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN VT. FRI
MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH 75-80 IN VALLEYS...AND MAINLY 70-75 ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS MAY ONLY REACH THE
MID/UPPER 60S. FRI NT/SAT AM MINS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH STILL COOL FOR EARLY JULY...WITH UPPER 40S TO
MID 50S IN MOST AREAS.

SAT-SAT NT...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING A PAIR OF UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES AND THEIR POTENTIAL INTERACTION WITH SOME LOW/MID
LEVEL MOISTURE LURKING TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE REGION. ONE
IMPULSE SHOULD PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION IN THE MORNING...WITH
ANOTHER...SLIGHTLY STRONGER IMPULSE APPROACHING FROM THE THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE DAY OR SAT NT. THE FIRST IMPULSE
COULD BRING SOME CLOUDS TO SOUTHERN AREAS IN THE MORNING. AT THIS
TIME...HAVE NOT INDICATED ANY PRECIP...BUT TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED...AS SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS COULD OCCUR IN THE MORNING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT IF
THIS IMPULSE TRACKS A BIT FURTHER NORTH. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE A BIT MORE PROBABLE WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE SECOND IMPULSE...ALTHOUGH THE TIMING WOULD FAVOR
MAINLY WESTERN AREAS WITH SOME LOW CHANCES FOR A LATE DAY/EVENING
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM...SUCH AS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS/SCHOHARIE
VALLEY/MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS. HAVE INDICATED
SLIGHT CHC/LOW CHC POPS FOR THESE AREAS LATE IN THE DAY INTO EARLY
SAT NT...WHILE KEEPING AREAS E OF THE HUDSON RIVER DRY FOR NOW.
OVERALL AREAL COVERAGE SHOULD NOT BE VERY WIDESPREAD EVEN IF THEY
DO REACH THESE AREAS. OTHERWISE...MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER
80S IN VALLEYS AND 70S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH SAT NT/SUN
AM MINS FALLING INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO START OFF DRY AS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY MORNING AND
SETTLES ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. THERE SHOULD BE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL BOTH DAYS. EXPECT HIGHS ON BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY TO BE IN
THE MID 70S TO MID 80S WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S AND MONDAY
NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

A RETURN TO UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS FIRST A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE FA ON TUESDAY
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY FOR SUNDAY. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE 70S TO LOWER
80S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ENDING
AT 12Z FRIDAY AS A RESULT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF
THE TAF PERIOD. WESTERLY WINDS OF LESS THAN 10 KTS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY WITH A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT KGFL. WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING AND GO CALM OVERNIGHT. SOME LATE
NIGHT FOG IS EXPECTED TONIGHT MAINLY AFT 08Z WITH IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE AT KGFL AND KPSF.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OCCURRED TUE-WED. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY
LIGHT TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY AS A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AFTER THE WIDESPREAD 1-2 INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER THE PAST TWO
DAYS...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
SATURDAY...OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN SUNDAY
THROUGH LATE MONDAY. RIVER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FALL
THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD...AFTER SOME INITIAL CRESTS TODAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/HWJIV/KL
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...IAA/11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/KL



000
FXUS61 KALY 021337
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
937 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT
LAKES THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD BRING GENERALLY DRY WEATHER ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND 5 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COULD BRING AN
AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ON SATURDAY TO A FEW AREAS MAINLY
NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER WITH
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 930 AM EDT...STILL HAVE SOME PATCHY CLOUDS AROUND THE
REGION...MAINLY IN OUR SOUTHWESTERN AREAS. LOOK TO BE THE SOME MCS
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM OLD UPSTREAM MCS COMPLEXES BOTH IN THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN JET BRANCHES.

THERE MIGHT ALSO BE A LITTLE SMOKE FROM AN ONGOING FIRE IN
MANITOBA GIVING IT SLIGHTLY "DIRTY" LOOK.

THE H20 ANALYSIS INDICATED A VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE (COLD POOL
ALOFT) WORKING TO OUR SOUTHERN REGIONS WHICH MIGHT TOUCH OFF
PRETTY GOOD CU DEVELOPING AND PERHAPS A FEW SPRINKLES OR SHOWERS.

ON GOING FORECAST HAD ALL OF THIS COVERED WELL SO FOR THIS UPDATE
JUST MINOR TWEAKING OF MAINLY THE HOURLY WEATHER FIELDS.

THE SKY WILL MOST LIKELY VARY BETWEEN PARTLY SUNNY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY FOR A BIT THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...TRENDING
TO MOSTLY SUNNY LATER THIS AFTERNOON FOR AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE
90.

FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-90...LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE WITH
THE APPROACH/PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD POOL. SEVERAL
MESOSCALE MODELS SUCH AS THE LOCAL WRF...HRRR...AND SEVERAL SREF
MEMBERS SUGGEST ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES DEVELOPING
LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...FOR AREAS MAINLY
SOUTH OF THE GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT...ESP FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
HAVE INDICATED SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR THESE AREAS DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES. THESE CONVECTIVE
CLOUDS/SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN QUITE SHALLOW...AS A STRONG MID LEVEL CAP
SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE LIMITING POTENTIAL VERTICAL EXTENT...AND
ICE FORMATION...THEREFORE NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDER AT THIS TIME.

AS FOR MAX TEMPS...LOOK FOR HIGHS 75 TO AROUND 80 IN MOST VALLEYS...
HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL REACH THE MID 60S TO MID 70S ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT...AND GENERALLY LOWER TO MID
70S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY...EXCEPT FOR OCCASIONAL
HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS ON FRIDAY...AS A
WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION. TEMPS
SHOULD BE QUITE COOL TONIGHT...WITH UPPER 40S TO MID 50S FAIRLY
COMMON...AND EVEN SOME LOWER/MID 40S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN VT. FRI
MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH 75-80 IN VALLEYS...AND MAINLY 70-75 ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS MAY ONLY REACH THE
MID/UPPER 60S. FRI NT/SAT AM MINS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH STILL COOL FOR EARLY JULY...WITH UPPER 40S TO
MID 50S IN MOST AREAS.

SAT-SAT NT...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING A PAIR OF UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES AND THEIR POTENTIAL INTERACTION WITH SOME LOW/MID
LEVEL MOISTURE LURKING TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE REGION. ONE
IMPULSE SHOULD PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION IN THE MORNING...WITH
ANOTHER...SLIGHTLY STRONGER IMPULSE APPROACHING FROM THE THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE DAY OR SAT NT. THE FIRST IMPULSE
COULD BRING SOME CLOUDS TO SOUTHERN AREAS IN THE MORNING. AT THIS
TIME...HAVE NOT INDICATED ANY PRECIP...BUT TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED...AS SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS COULD OCCUR IN THE MORNING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT IF
THIS IMPULSE TRACKS A BIT FURTHER NORTH. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE A BIT MORE PROBABLE WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE SECOND IMPULSE...ALTHOUGH THE TIMING WOULD FAVOR
MAINLY WESTERN AREAS WITH SOME LOW CHANCES FOR A LATE DAY/EVENING
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM...SUCH AS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS/SCHOHARIE
VALLEY/MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS. HAVE INDICATED
SLIGHT CHC/LOW CHC POPS FOR THESE AREAS LATE IN THE DAY INTO EARLY
SAT NT...WHILE KEEPING AREAS E OF THE HUDSON RIVER DRY FOR NOW.
OVERALL AREAL COVERAGE SHOULD NOT BE VERY WIDESPREAD EVEN IF THEY
DO REACH THESE AREAS. OTHERWISE...MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER
80S IN VALLEYS AND 70S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH SAT NT/SUN
AM MINS FALLING INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO START OFF DRY AS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY MORNING AND
SETTLES ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. THERE SHOULD BE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL BOTH DAYS. EXPECT HIGHS ON BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY TO BE IN
THE MID 70S TO MID 80S WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S AND MONDAY
NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

A RETURN TO UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS FIRST A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE FA ON TUESDAY
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY FOR SUNDAY. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE 70S TO LOWER
80S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ENDING
AT 12Z FRIDAY AS A RESULT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF
THE TAF PERIOD. WESTERLY WINDS OF LESS THAN 10 KTS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY WITH A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT KGFL. WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING AND GO CALM OVERNIGHT. SOME LATE
NIGHT FOG IS EXPECTED TONIGHT MAINLY AFT 08Z WITH IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE AT KGFL AND KPSF.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OCCURRED TUE-WED. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY
LIGHT TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY AS A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AFTER THE WIDESPREAD 1-2 INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER THE PAST TWO
DAYS...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
SATURDAY...OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN SUNDAY
THROUGH LATE MONDAY. RIVER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FALL
THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD...AFTER SOME INITIAL CRESTS TODAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/HWJIV/KL
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...IAA/11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/KL



000
FXUS61 KOKX 021137
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
737 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL LINGER TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD IN FROM TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL
PASS TO THE SOUTH ON INDEPENDENCE DAY. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FCST ON TRACK...BUT UPDATE ISSUED TO ACCOMMODATE MARINE CHANGES.
SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY...WITH SCT FAIR WX CU
DEVELOPING AND HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER/MID 80S...BUT UPPER 70S
ALONG MOST SOUTH- FACING SHORELINES AND IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
THESE TEMPS ARE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THOSE OF YESTERDAY AND A
TOUCH LOWER THAN THE COOLER 00Z GFS MOS GUIDANCE.

COASTAL SEA BREEZES SHOULD DEVELOP...AND WILL BE WEAKER THAN THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH TEMPS INLAND.

EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDS...THOUGH COULD SEE AN ISOLD SHOWER OR
TSTM DEVELOP LATE TODAY IN/NEAR NE NJ IN POCKET OF
INSTABILITY/BLYR MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES.

THERE IS A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK AT THE OCEAN BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP IN/NEAR NE NJ COULD DRIFT E
TOWARD NYC NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD START TO BUILD FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT
INTO FRI...WITH N-NE FLOW AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...THEN WEAK
COASTAL SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE A COOLER LOWER/MID 60S IN MOST PLACES...AND
55-60 ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS WELL NORTH/WEST OF NYC.
HIGHS ON FRI UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER
STILL...MAINLY 75-80.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE 00Z MODEL SUITE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST WEAK LOW PRES WILL TRACK
OFF THE DELMARVA AND OUT TO SEA ON THE 4TH. THIS GIVES THE CWA A
GLANCING BLOW AT BEST...AND MAY ONLY RESULT IN SOME EXTRA CLOUDS
ESPECIALLY LI INTO THE CITY AND NJ. INCLUDED SOME LOW POPS...MAINLY
SCHC...FOR MOST OF THE AREA. IT SHOULD BE NOTED HOWEVER THAT AT THIS
POINT ANY RAIN LOOKS LGT AND SPOTTY AT BEST. THEREAFTER...HI PRES
BUILDS IN AND AS A RESULT HAVE GONE WITH A FAIR FCST THRU WED.
THE ECMWF DOES HINT AT SOME RAIN TUE AS RESIDUAL CONVECTION GETS
ENTRAINED IN THE UPR RIDGE. THIS APPEARS TO BE A ROGUE SOLN ATTM
HOWEVER SO HAVE KEPT POPS BLW 15. DESPITE A DRY AIR MASS SUN-WED
WITH PW GENERALLY AOB 1 INCH...THE HUMIDITY WILL NOT BE
PARTICULARLY LOW...ESPECIALLY AS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
ARRIVES...AS PERSISTENT SLY COMPONENT FLOW DRAWS LLVL MOISTURE
INTO THE CWA FROM THE ATLC. THIS COULD SET THE STAGE FOR SOME
BOUTS OF MRNG FOG IF WINDS ARE LGT ENOUGH. TEMPS THRU THE LONG
TERM CLOSE TO THE GMOS25 AND MAINLY AOB CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL TO THE S OF THE AREA TODAY AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

LIGHT NW-N FLOW WILL GIVE WAY TO SEA BREEZES AT THE COAST DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTN...THEN DIMINISH TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL LIKELY BECOME LIGHT AND VRB FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS BETWEEN 12Z
AND 18Z. AN ISOLATED LATE DAY SHOWER/TSTM IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE NYC
METRO TERMINALS.


     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SEABREEZE MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS.
DIRECTION FORECAST AT 17Z MAY BE 10-20 DEGREES MORE SE TO
START...BECOMING 180-190.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SEABREEZE MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: SEABREEZE MAY PUSH THROUGH THE AIRFIELD
BETWEEN 20-22Z

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SEABREEZE MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.FRI...VFR WITH WINDS VEERING FROM THE NE TO THE ESE. SEA BREEZES
POSSIBLE.
.FRI NIGHT-SAT...LOW PRES WILL TRACK S OF THE REGION. IF THE LOW IS
CLOSE ENOUGH...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WITH -RA. WINDS GENERALLY NE
OR E.
.SAT NIGHT-MON...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS REMAIN AT 5 FT AT BUOY 44017 AND ARE CLOSER TO 4 FT AT THE
BUOYS TO THE WEST...SO SCAHS EXTENDED TO 15Z E OF MORICHES INLET.
THESE SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE BLW 5 FT BY NOON AS FLOW TURNS MORE
OFFSHORE AFTER A COLD FROPA.

SEAS WILL GET CLOSE TO 5 FT ON THE OCEAN ON SAT AS LOW PRES PASSES
TO THE S. ELSEWHERE...NE WINDS SHOULD BE IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL THEN LIKELY REMAIN BLW SCA LVLS SUN-WED AS A
BROAD AREA OF HI PRES SETTLES IN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT PCPN NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A FULL MOON...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 3/4 TO 1 1/2 FT ARE
NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED AT THE
PEAK OF THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDES THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
MINOR BENCHMARKS COULD BRIEFLY BE TOUCHED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE
BAYS OF NASSAU COUNTY THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY
     FOR ANZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...JMC/GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...JMC/GOODMAN
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...24
MARINE...JMC/GOODMAN
HYDROLOGY...JMC/GOODMAN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 021120
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
720 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE SOUTH COAST TODAY...BEFORE
MOVING OFFSHORE TONIGHT. ASIDE FROM A FEW SHOWERS LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT OVER CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS...AND A SPOT SHOWER NEAR THE
SOUTH COAST ON SATURDAY...DRY WEATHER PREVAILS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH GRADUALLY WARMING CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
7AM UPDATE...
A WEAK FRONT WILL CONTINUE IT/S VERY SLOW PUSH OFFSHORE TODAY. AS
IT DOES SO A SECONDARY UPPER LVL WAVE WILL LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF
A WAVE OF LOW PRES LATE NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR
A FEW SHOWERS TO MOVE WITHIN VICINITY OF THE S COAST...BUT MAINLY
DURING THE EVENING HOURS. ADJUSTED POPS TOWARD THIS THINKING. ONLY
OTHER GRID EDITS WERE TO BRING TEMPS/DWPTS UP TO CURRENT TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

A WEAK COLD FRONT STALLS NEAR THE COAST...BUT THE ATMOSPHERE IS
FAIRLY DRY WITH LIMITED TO NO INSTABILITY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
MAINLY SOME CLOUDS AND DRY WEATHER. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE TOWARDS
NANTUCKET...WHERE CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND THERE IS A LOW RISK
FOR A SHOWER LATE AS SOME MOISTURE MOVES NORTH AHEAD OF WEAK
FRONTAL WAVE. LOCAL SEABREEZES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES LOWER ALONG
THE COAST...WHERE THEY DEVELOP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
WEAK FRONT MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL WAVE
PASSES BY THE BENCHMARK. MAJORITY OF THE RAINFALL WILL STAY SOUTH
OF OUR REGION. HOWEVER...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TOWARD
NANTUCKET...WITH A LOWER RISK OF THESE SHOWERS REACHING AS FAR
NORTH AS CAPE COD...AND AS FAR WEST AS THE VINEYARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

 * LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER ON SATURDAY.
 * GRADUALLY WARMING CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...AMPLIFIED BLOCKING FLOW PATTERN
CONTINUES MAINLY ACROSS THE ERN PACIFIC AND WRN ATLANTIC UNDER
STRONG RIDGING...ESPECIALLY IN THE PACIFIC WHERE THE EPO IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO DIVE STRONGLY NEGATIVE. THIS LEAVES MUCH
OF THE CONUS IN A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW REGIME. NEARLY...BECAUSE VERY
WEAK TROUGHING IS EVIDENT PARTICULARLY AS NRN STREAM ENERGY MOVES
SHIFTS THROUGH HE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE MEAN JET. HOWEVER...UNTIL
ABOUT THE MID PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW
SRN NEW ENGLAND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WRN ATLANTIC RIDGING.
SO EVEN WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE THIS WEEKEND...IT LOOKS TO
MOVE THROUGH WITH LITTLE FANFARE AS SOUNDINGS SHOW DRY/SUBSIDENCE
IN PLACE. WITH MODERATE AGREEMENT BETWEEN OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF
/SOME SMALLER SCALE DIFFERENCES EXIST/ A BLEND WILL BE USED
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. BEYOND THIS...THERE IS SOME SIGNIFICANT
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING A SHIFT AS THE NRN STREAM VORTEX REGAINS
CONTROL ACROSS THE AREA...LEADING TO A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN.

DETAILS...

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT...WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING E FROM
THE GREAT LAKES AND A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE S...WILL
LIKELY SEE CYCLOGENESIS OF A WEAK LOW PRES CENTER WELL TO THE S.
THIS WILL ALSO INTRODUCE RIDGE OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR WHICH LOOKS
TO REMAIN TO THE W. FOR NOW...THE BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO REMAIN NEAR
THE S COAST...CLOSER TO THE DEVELOPING LOW PRES. HOWEVER...COLUMN
REMAINS MOSTLY DRY AND SUGGESTS SOME INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE MOVING
E OF THE REGION. SO SUSPECT ONLY A FEW SPOT SHOWERS TO CONTEND
WITH AT MOST. TEMPS AT H85 ARE AROUND +10C...SO SUSPECT 2M TEMPS
TO REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

SUN INTO TUE...AS STRONG NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN
ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA...THE WARM ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO RIDGE
AMPLIFICATION OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL LEAD
TO FAIRLY STRONG HIGH PRES DEVELOPMENT WHICH MAY LOCK IN PLACE FOR
A FEW DAYS OF DRY WX. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
MODERATING MID LVL TEMPS AND RISING HUMIDITY PARTICULARLY MON AND
TUE. H85 TEMPS INCREASE TO AN AVERAGE OF +12C MON...THEN CLOSER TO
+14C BY TUE. THEREFORE...AWAY FROM COASTLINES /WHERE SEA BREEZES
WILL LIMIT WARMING/ EXPECT TEMPS WARMER THAN EARLY JULY NORMALS.

MID-LATE NEXT WEEK...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...BECAUSE THIS IS SUCH A
ROBUST SHORTWAVE/CUTOFF THAT MODELS ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP...THERE
IS LITTLE AGREEMENT BETWEEN THEM REGARDING TIMING/STRENGTH...AND
ENSEMBLES ARE LITTLE HELP. HOWEVER...WITH FAIRLY WARM/HUMID
CONDITIONS AND AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
TRANSITION TO A WETTER AND MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN TOWARD THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR MOST AREAS...AFTER AREA OF FOG LIFTS FROM ACK. MAINLY W-SW
WINDS.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. AREAS OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
SHOWERS LIKELY FOR KACK...POSSIBLY REACHING THE S COAST AND CAPE
COD.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. WEAK SEA BREEZES LIKELY MOST DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

LINGERING ROUGH SEAS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TODAY. SO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL
PERSIST OVER THESE WATERS FOR A WHILE LONGER. CHANGEABLE WINDS AS
A COLD FRONT FIRST STALLS ACROSS THE WATERS...THEN MOVES FARTHER
OFFSHORE TONIGHT. WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KT. ONCE
SEAS DIMINISH BELOW 5 FEET...EXPECTING RATHER TRANQUIL BOATING
CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. THE MAIN ISSUE AT THAT POINT WOULD BE
REDUCED VISIBILITY IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. A WEEK LOW PRES WILL
PASS WELL S OF THE WATERS. THIS MAY LEAD TO E FLOW REACHING
20-25 KT ON THE SRN WATERS AND A BUILDING SWELL WHICH COULD REACH
5-6 FT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED. OTHERWISE...SOME
SHOWERS AND FOG AT TIMES MAY LEAD TO REDUCED VSBYS...MAINLY ON THE
SRN WATERS AS WELL.

SUN AN MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES WILL MOVE OVER THE WATERS
ALLOWING AND REMNANT SWELL TO SUBSIDE. AFTER WHICH QUIET BOATING
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ255-
     256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ235-
     237.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...BELK/DOODY
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY



000
FXUS61 KBOX 021120
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
720 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE SOUTH COAST TODAY...BEFORE
MOVING OFFSHORE TONIGHT. ASIDE FROM A FEW SHOWERS LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT OVER CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS...AND A SPOT SHOWER NEAR THE
SOUTH COAST ON SATURDAY...DRY WEATHER PREVAILS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH GRADUALLY WARMING CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
7AM UPDATE...
A WEAK FRONT WILL CONTINUE IT/S VERY SLOW PUSH OFFSHORE TODAY. AS
IT DOES SO A SECONDARY UPPER LVL WAVE WILL LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF
A WAVE OF LOW PRES LATE NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR
A FEW SHOWERS TO MOVE WITHIN VICINITY OF THE S COAST...BUT MAINLY
DURING THE EVENING HOURS. ADJUSTED POPS TOWARD THIS THINKING. ONLY
OTHER GRID EDITS WERE TO BRING TEMPS/DWPTS UP TO CURRENT TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

A WEAK COLD FRONT STALLS NEAR THE COAST...BUT THE ATMOSPHERE IS
FAIRLY DRY WITH LIMITED TO NO INSTABILITY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
MAINLY SOME CLOUDS AND DRY WEATHER. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE TOWARDS
NANTUCKET...WHERE CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND THERE IS A LOW RISK
FOR A SHOWER LATE AS SOME MOISTURE MOVES NORTH AHEAD OF WEAK
FRONTAL WAVE. LOCAL SEABREEZES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES LOWER ALONG
THE COAST...WHERE THEY DEVELOP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
WEAK FRONT MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL WAVE
PASSES BY THE BENCHMARK. MAJORITY OF THE RAINFALL WILL STAY SOUTH
OF OUR REGION. HOWEVER...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TOWARD
NANTUCKET...WITH A LOWER RISK OF THESE SHOWERS REACHING AS FAR
NORTH AS CAPE COD...AND AS FAR WEST AS THE VINEYARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

 * LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER ON SATURDAY.
 * GRADUALLY WARMING CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...AMPLIFIED BLOCKING FLOW PATTERN
CONTINUES MAINLY ACROSS THE ERN PACIFIC AND WRN ATLANTIC UNDER
STRONG RIDGING...ESPECIALLY IN THE PACIFIC WHERE THE EPO IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO DIVE STRONGLY NEGATIVE. THIS LEAVES MUCH
OF THE CONUS IN A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW REGIME. NEARLY...BECAUSE VERY
WEAK TROUGHING IS EVIDENT PARTICULARLY AS NRN STREAM ENERGY MOVES
SHIFTS THROUGH HE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE MEAN JET. HOWEVER...UNTIL
ABOUT THE MID PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW
SRN NEW ENGLAND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WRN ATLANTIC RIDGING.
SO EVEN WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE THIS WEEKEND...IT LOOKS TO
MOVE THROUGH WITH LITTLE FANFARE AS SOUNDINGS SHOW DRY/SUBSIDENCE
IN PLACE. WITH MODERATE AGREEMENT BETWEEN OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF
/SOME SMALLER SCALE DIFFERENCES EXIST/ A BLEND WILL BE USED
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. BEYOND THIS...THERE IS SOME SIGNIFICANT
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING A SHIFT AS THE NRN STREAM VORTEX REGAINS
CONTROL ACROSS THE AREA...LEADING TO A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN.

DETAILS...

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT...WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING E FROM
THE GREAT LAKES AND A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE S...WILL
LIKELY SEE CYCLOGENESIS OF A WEAK LOW PRES CENTER WELL TO THE S.
THIS WILL ALSO INTRODUCE RIDGE OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR WHICH LOOKS
TO REMAIN TO THE W. FOR NOW...THE BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO REMAIN NEAR
THE S COAST...CLOSER TO THE DEVELOPING LOW PRES. HOWEVER...COLUMN
REMAINS MOSTLY DRY AND SUGGESTS SOME INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE MOVING
E OF THE REGION. SO SUSPECT ONLY A FEW SPOT SHOWERS TO CONTEND
WITH AT MOST. TEMPS AT H85 ARE AROUND +10C...SO SUSPECT 2M TEMPS
TO REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

SUN INTO TUE...AS STRONG NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN
ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA...THE WARM ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO RIDGE
AMPLIFICATION OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL LEAD
TO FAIRLY STRONG HIGH PRES DEVELOPMENT WHICH MAY LOCK IN PLACE FOR
A FEW DAYS OF DRY WX. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
MODERATING MID LVL TEMPS AND RISING HUMIDITY PARTICULARLY MON AND
TUE. H85 TEMPS INCREASE TO AN AVERAGE OF +12C MON...THEN CLOSER TO
+14C BY TUE. THEREFORE...AWAY FROM COASTLINES /WHERE SEA BREEZES
WILL LIMIT WARMING/ EXPECT TEMPS WARMER THAN EARLY JULY NORMALS.

MID-LATE NEXT WEEK...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...BECAUSE THIS IS SUCH A
ROBUST SHORTWAVE/CUTOFF THAT MODELS ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP...THERE
IS LITTLE AGREEMENT BETWEEN THEM REGARDING TIMING/STRENGTH...AND
ENSEMBLES ARE LITTLE HELP. HOWEVER...WITH FAIRLY WARM/HUMID
CONDITIONS AND AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
TRANSITION TO A WETTER AND MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN TOWARD THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR MOST AREAS...AFTER AREA OF FOG LIFTS FROM ACK. MAINLY W-SW
WINDS.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. AREAS OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
SHOWERS LIKELY FOR KACK...POSSIBLY REACHING THE S COAST AND CAPE
COD.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. WEAK SEA BREEZES LIKELY MOST DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

LINGERING ROUGH SEAS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TODAY. SO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL
PERSIST OVER THESE WATERS FOR A WHILE LONGER. CHANGEABLE WINDS AS
A COLD FRONT FIRST STALLS ACROSS THE WATERS...THEN MOVES FARTHER
OFFSHORE TONIGHT. WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KT. ONCE
SEAS DIMINISH BELOW 5 FEET...EXPECTING RATHER TRANQUIL BOATING
CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. THE MAIN ISSUE AT THAT POINT WOULD BE
REDUCED VISIBILITY IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. A WEEK LOW PRES WILL
PASS WELL S OF THE WATERS. THIS MAY LEAD TO E FLOW REACHING
20-25 KT ON THE SRN WATERS AND A BUILDING SWELL WHICH COULD REACH
5-6 FT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED. OTHERWISE...SOME
SHOWERS AND FOG AT TIMES MAY LEAD TO REDUCED VSBYS...MAINLY ON THE
SRN WATERS AS WELL.

SUN AN MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES WILL MOVE OVER THE WATERS
ALLOWING AND REMNANT SWELL TO SUBSIDE. AFTER WHICH QUIET BOATING
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ255-
     256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ235-
     237.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...BELK/DOODY
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 021120
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
720 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE SOUTH COAST TODAY...BEFORE
MOVING OFFSHORE TONIGHT. ASIDE FROM A FEW SHOWERS LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT OVER CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS...AND A SPOT SHOWER NEAR THE
SOUTH COAST ON SATURDAY...DRY WEATHER PREVAILS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH GRADUALLY WARMING CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
7AM UPDATE...
A WEAK FRONT WILL CONTINUE IT/S VERY SLOW PUSH OFFSHORE TODAY. AS
IT DOES SO A SECONDARY UPPER LVL WAVE WILL LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF
A WAVE OF LOW PRES LATE NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR
A FEW SHOWERS TO MOVE WITHIN VICINITY OF THE S COAST...BUT MAINLY
DURING THE EVENING HOURS. ADJUSTED POPS TOWARD THIS THINKING. ONLY
OTHER GRID EDITS WERE TO BRING TEMPS/DWPTS UP TO CURRENT TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

A WEAK COLD FRONT STALLS NEAR THE COAST...BUT THE ATMOSPHERE IS
FAIRLY DRY WITH LIMITED TO NO INSTABILITY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
MAINLY SOME CLOUDS AND DRY WEATHER. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE TOWARDS
NANTUCKET...WHERE CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND THERE IS A LOW RISK
FOR A SHOWER LATE AS SOME MOISTURE MOVES NORTH AHEAD OF WEAK
FRONTAL WAVE. LOCAL SEABREEZES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES LOWER ALONG
THE COAST...WHERE THEY DEVELOP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
WEAK FRONT MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL WAVE
PASSES BY THE BENCHMARK. MAJORITY OF THE RAINFALL WILL STAY SOUTH
OF OUR REGION. HOWEVER...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TOWARD
NANTUCKET...WITH A LOWER RISK OF THESE SHOWERS REACHING AS FAR
NORTH AS CAPE COD...AND AS FAR WEST AS THE VINEYARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

 * LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER ON SATURDAY.
 * GRADUALLY WARMING CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...AMPLIFIED BLOCKING FLOW PATTERN
CONTINUES MAINLY ACROSS THE ERN PACIFIC AND WRN ATLANTIC UNDER
STRONG RIDGING...ESPECIALLY IN THE PACIFIC WHERE THE EPO IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO DIVE STRONGLY NEGATIVE. THIS LEAVES MUCH
OF THE CONUS IN A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW REGIME. NEARLY...BECAUSE VERY
WEAK TROUGHING IS EVIDENT PARTICULARLY AS NRN STREAM ENERGY MOVES
SHIFTS THROUGH HE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE MEAN JET. HOWEVER...UNTIL
ABOUT THE MID PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW
SRN NEW ENGLAND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WRN ATLANTIC RIDGING.
SO EVEN WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE THIS WEEKEND...IT LOOKS TO
MOVE THROUGH WITH LITTLE FANFARE AS SOUNDINGS SHOW DRY/SUBSIDENCE
IN PLACE. WITH MODERATE AGREEMENT BETWEEN OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF
/SOME SMALLER SCALE DIFFERENCES EXIST/ A BLEND WILL BE USED
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. BEYOND THIS...THERE IS SOME SIGNIFICANT
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING A SHIFT AS THE NRN STREAM VORTEX REGAINS
CONTROL ACROSS THE AREA...LEADING TO A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN.

DETAILS...

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT...WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING E FROM
THE GREAT LAKES AND A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE S...WILL
LIKELY SEE CYCLOGENESIS OF A WEAK LOW PRES CENTER WELL TO THE S.
THIS WILL ALSO INTRODUCE RIDGE OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR WHICH LOOKS
TO REMAIN TO THE W. FOR NOW...THE BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO REMAIN NEAR
THE S COAST...CLOSER TO THE DEVELOPING LOW PRES. HOWEVER...COLUMN
REMAINS MOSTLY DRY AND SUGGESTS SOME INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE MOVING
E OF THE REGION. SO SUSPECT ONLY A FEW SPOT SHOWERS TO CONTEND
WITH AT MOST. TEMPS AT H85 ARE AROUND +10C...SO SUSPECT 2M TEMPS
TO REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

SUN INTO TUE...AS STRONG NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN
ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA...THE WARM ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO RIDGE
AMPLIFICATION OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL LEAD
TO FAIRLY STRONG HIGH PRES DEVELOPMENT WHICH MAY LOCK IN PLACE FOR
A FEW DAYS OF DRY WX. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
MODERATING MID LVL TEMPS AND RISING HUMIDITY PARTICULARLY MON AND
TUE. H85 TEMPS INCREASE TO AN AVERAGE OF +12C MON...THEN CLOSER TO
+14C BY TUE. THEREFORE...AWAY FROM COASTLINES /WHERE SEA BREEZES
WILL LIMIT WARMING/ EXPECT TEMPS WARMER THAN EARLY JULY NORMALS.

MID-LATE NEXT WEEK...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...BECAUSE THIS IS SUCH A
ROBUST SHORTWAVE/CUTOFF THAT MODELS ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP...THERE
IS LITTLE AGREEMENT BETWEEN THEM REGARDING TIMING/STRENGTH...AND
ENSEMBLES ARE LITTLE HELP. HOWEVER...WITH FAIRLY WARM/HUMID
CONDITIONS AND AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
TRANSITION TO A WETTER AND MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN TOWARD THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR MOST AREAS...AFTER AREA OF FOG LIFTS FROM ACK. MAINLY W-SW
WINDS.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. AREAS OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
SHOWERS LIKELY FOR KACK...POSSIBLY REACHING THE S COAST AND CAPE
COD.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. WEAK SEA BREEZES LIKELY MOST DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

LINGERING ROUGH SEAS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TODAY. SO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL
PERSIST OVER THESE WATERS FOR A WHILE LONGER. CHANGEABLE WINDS AS
A COLD FRONT FIRST STALLS ACROSS THE WATERS...THEN MOVES FARTHER
OFFSHORE TONIGHT. WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KT. ONCE
SEAS DIMINISH BELOW 5 FEET...EXPECTING RATHER TRANQUIL BOATING
CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. THE MAIN ISSUE AT THAT POINT WOULD BE
REDUCED VISIBILITY IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. A WEEK LOW PRES WILL
PASS WELL S OF THE WATERS. THIS MAY LEAD TO E FLOW REACHING
20-25 KT ON THE SRN WATERS AND A BUILDING SWELL WHICH COULD REACH
5-6 FT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED. OTHERWISE...SOME
SHOWERS AND FOG AT TIMES MAY LEAD TO REDUCED VSBYS...MAINLY ON THE
SRN WATERS AS WELL.

SUN AN MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES WILL MOVE OVER THE WATERS
ALLOWING AND REMNANT SWELL TO SUBSIDE. AFTER WHICH QUIET BOATING
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ255-
     256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ235-
     237.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...BELK/DOODY
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 021120
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
720 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE SOUTH COAST TODAY...BEFORE
MOVING OFFSHORE TONIGHT. ASIDE FROM A FEW SHOWERS LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT OVER CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS...AND A SPOT SHOWER NEAR THE
SOUTH COAST ON SATURDAY...DRY WEATHER PREVAILS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH GRADUALLY WARMING CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
7AM UPDATE...
A WEAK FRONT WILL CONTINUE IT/S VERY SLOW PUSH OFFSHORE TODAY. AS
IT DOES SO A SECONDARY UPPER LVL WAVE WILL LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF
A WAVE OF LOW PRES LATE NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR
A FEW SHOWERS TO MOVE WITHIN VICINITY OF THE S COAST...BUT MAINLY
DURING THE EVENING HOURS. ADJUSTED POPS TOWARD THIS THINKING. ONLY
OTHER GRID EDITS WERE TO BRING TEMPS/DWPTS UP TO CURRENT TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

A WEAK COLD FRONT STALLS NEAR THE COAST...BUT THE ATMOSPHERE IS
FAIRLY DRY WITH LIMITED TO NO INSTABILITY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
MAINLY SOME CLOUDS AND DRY WEATHER. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE TOWARDS
NANTUCKET...WHERE CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND THERE IS A LOW RISK
FOR A SHOWER LATE AS SOME MOISTURE MOVES NORTH AHEAD OF WEAK
FRONTAL WAVE. LOCAL SEABREEZES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES LOWER ALONG
THE COAST...WHERE THEY DEVELOP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
WEAK FRONT MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL WAVE
PASSES BY THE BENCHMARK. MAJORITY OF THE RAINFALL WILL STAY SOUTH
OF OUR REGION. HOWEVER...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TOWARD
NANTUCKET...WITH A LOWER RISK OF THESE SHOWERS REACHING AS FAR
NORTH AS CAPE COD...AND AS FAR WEST AS THE VINEYARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

 * LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER ON SATURDAY.
 * GRADUALLY WARMING CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...AMPLIFIED BLOCKING FLOW PATTERN
CONTINUES MAINLY ACROSS THE ERN PACIFIC AND WRN ATLANTIC UNDER
STRONG RIDGING...ESPECIALLY IN THE PACIFIC WHERE THE EPO IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO DIVE STRONGLY NEGATIVE. THIS LEAVES MUCH
OF THE CONUS IN A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW REGIME. NEARLY...BECAUSE VERY
WEAK TROUGHING IS EVIDENT PARTICULARLY AS NRN STREAM ENERGY MOVES
SHIFTS THROUGH HE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE MEAN JET. HOWEVER...UNTIL
ABOUT THE MID PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW
SRN NEW ENGLAND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WRN ATLANTIC RIDGING.
SO EVEN WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE THIS WEEKEND...IT LOOKS TO
MOVE THROUGH WITH LITTLE FANFARE AS SOUNDINGS SHOW DRY/SUBSIDENCE
IN PLACE. WITH MODERATE AGREEMENT BETWEEN OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF
/SOME SMALLER SCALE DIFFERENCES EXIST/ A BLEND WILL BE USED
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. BEYOND THIS...THERE IS SOME SIGNIFICANT
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING A SHIFT AS THE NRN STREAM VORTEX REGAINS
CONTROL ACROSS THE AREA...LEADING TO A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN.

DETAILS...

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT...WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING E FROM
THE GREAT LAKES AND A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE S...WILL
LIKELY SEE CYCLOGENESIS OF A WEAK LOW PRES CENTER WELL TO THE S.
THIS WILL ALSO INTRODUCE RIDGE OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR WHICH LOOKS
TO REMAIN TO THE W. FOR NOW...THE BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO REMAIN NEAR
THE S COAST...CLOSER TO THE DEVELOPING LOW PRES. HOWEVER...COLUMN
REMAINS MOSTLY DRY AND SUGGESTS SOME INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE MOVING
E OF THE REGION. SO SUSPECT ONLY A FEW SPOT SHOWERS TO CONTEND
WITH AT MOST. TEMPS AT H85 ARE AROUND +10C...SO SUSPECT 2M TEMPS
TO REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

SUN INTO TUE...AS STRONG NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN
ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA...THE WARM ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO RIDGE
AMPLIFICATION OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL LEAD
TO FAIRLY STRONG HIGH PRES DEVELOPMENT WHICH MAY LOCK IN PLACE FOR
A FEW DAYS OF DRY WX. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
MODERATING MID LVL TEMPS AND RISING HUMIDITY PARTICULARLY MON AND
TUE. H85 TEMPS INCREASE TO AN AVERAGE OF +12C MON...THEN CLOSER TO
+14C BY TUE. THEREFORE...AWAY FROM COASTLINES /WHERE SEA BREEZES
WILL LIMIT WARMING/ EXPECT TEMPS WARMER THAN EARLY JULY NORMALS.

MID-LATE NEXT WEEK...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...BECAUSE THIS IS SUCH A
ROBUST SHORTWAVE/CUTOFF THAT MODELS ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP...THERE
IS LITTLE AGREEMENT BETWEEN THEM REGARDING TIMING/STRENGTH...AND
ENSEMBLES ARE LITTLE HELP. HOWEVER...WITH FAIRLY WARM/HUMID
CONDITIONS AND AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
TRANSITION TO A WETTER AND MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN TOWARD THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR MOST AREAS...AFTER AREA OF FOG LIFTS FROM ACK. MAINLY W-SW
WINDS.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. AREAS OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
SHOWERS LIKELY FOR KACK...POSSIBLY REACHING THE S COAST AND CAPE
COD.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. WEAK SEA BREEZES LIKELY MOST DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

LINGERING ROUGH SEAS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TODAY. SO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL
PERSIST OVER THESE WATERS FOR A WHILE LONGER. CHANGEABLE WINDS AS
A COLD FRONT FIRST STALLS ACROSS THE WATERS...THEN MOVES FARTHER
OFFSHORE TONIGHT. WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KT. ONCE
SEAS DIMINISH BELOW 5 FEET...EXPECTING RATHER TRANQUIL BOATING
CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. THE MAIN ISSUE AT THAT POINT WOULD BE
REDUCED VISIBILITY IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. A WEEK LOW PRES WILL
PASS WELL S OF THE WATERS. THIS MAY LEAD TO E FLOW REACHING
20-25 KT ON THE SRN WATERS AND A BUILDING SWELL WHICH COULD REACH
5-6 FT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED. OTHERWISE...SOME
SHOWERS AND FOG AT TIMES MAY LEAD TO REDUCED VSBYS...MAINLY ON THE
SRN WATERS AS WELL.

SUN AN MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES WILL MOVE OVER THE WATERS
ALLOWING AND REMNANT SWELL TO SUBSIDE. AFTER WHICH QUIET BOATING
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ255-
     256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ235-
     237.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...BELK/DOODY
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 021120
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
720 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE SOUTH COAST TODAY...BEFORE
MOVING OFFSHORE TONIGHT. ASIDE FROM A FEW SHOWERS LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT OVER CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS...AND A SPOT SHOWER NEAR THE
SOUTH COAST ON SATURDAY...DRY WEATHER PREVAILS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH GRADUALLY WARMING CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
7AM UPDATE...
A WEAK FRONT WILL CONTINUE IT/S VERY SLOW PUSH OFFSHORE TODAY. AS
IT DOES SO A SECONDARY UPPER LVL WAVE WILL LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF
A WAVE OF LOW PRES LATE NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR
A FEW SHOWERS TO MOVE WITHIN VICINITY OF THE S COAST...BUT MAINLY
DURING THE EVENING HOURS. ADJUSTED POPS TOWARD THIS THINKING. ONLY
OTHER GRID EDITS WERE TO BRING TEMPS/DWPTS UP TO CURRENT TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

A WEAK COLD FRONT STALLS NEAR THE COAST...BUT THE ATMOSPHERE IS
FAIRLY DRY WITH LIMITED TO NO INSTABILITY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
MAINLY SOME CLOUDS AND DRY WEATHER. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE TOWARDS
NANTUCKET...WHERE CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND THERE IS A LOW RISK
FOR A SHOWER LATE AS SOME MOISTURE MOVES NORTH AHEAD OF WEAK
FRONTAL WAVE. LOCAL SEABREEZES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES LOWER ALONG
THE COAST...WHERE THEY DEVELOP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
WEAK FRONT MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL WAVE
PASSES BY THE BENCHMARK. MAJORITY OF THE RAINFALL WILL STAY SOUTH
OF OUR REGION. HOWEVER...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TOWARD
NANTUCKET...WITH A LOWER RISK OF THESE SHOWERS REACHING AS FAR
NORTH AS CAPE COD...AND AS FAR WEST AS THE VINEYARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

 * LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER ON SATURDAY.
 * GRADUALLY WARMING CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...AMPLIFIED BLOCKING FLOW PATTERN
CONTINUES MAINLY ACROSS THE ERN PACIFIC AND WRN ATLANTIC UNDER
STRONG RIDGING...ESPECIALLY IN THE PACIFIC WHERE THE EPO IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO DIVE STRONGLY NEGATIVE. THIS LEAVES MUCH
OF THE CONUS IN A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW REGIME. NEARLY...BECAUSE VERY
WEAK TROUGHING IS EVIDENT PARTICULARLY AS NRN STREAM ENERGY MOVES
SHIFTS THROUGH HE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE MEAN JET. HOWEVER...UNTIL
ABOUT THE MID PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW
SRN NEW ENGLAND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WRN ATLANTIC RIDGING.
SO EVEN WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE THIS WEEKEND...IT LOOKS TO
MOVE THROUGH WITH LITTLE FANFARE AS SOUNDINGS SHOW DRY/SUBSIDENCE
IN PLACE. WITH MODERATE AGREEMENT BETWEEN OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF
/SOME SMALLER SCALE DIFFERENCES EXIST/ A BLEND WILL BE USED
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. BEYOND THIS...THERE IS SOME SIGNIFICANT
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING A SHIFT AS THE NRN STREAM VORTEX REGAINS
CONTROL ACROSS THE AREA...LEADING TO A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN.

DETAILS...

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT...WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING E FROM
THE GREAT LAKES AND A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE S...WILL
LIKELY SEE CYCLOGENESIS OF A WEAK LOW PRES CENTER WELL TO THE S.
THIS WILL ALSO INTRODUCE RIDGE OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR WHICH LOOKS
TO REMAIN TO THE W. FOR NOW...THE BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO REMAIN NEAR
THE S COAST...CLOSER TO THE DEVELOPING LOW PRES. HOWEVER...COLUMN
REMAINS MOSTLY DRY AND SUGGESTS SOME INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE MOVING
E OF THE REGION. SO SUSPECT ONLY A FEW SPOT SHOWERS TO CONTEND
WITH AT MOST. TEMPS AT H85 ARE AROUND +10C...SO SUSPECT 2M TEMPS
TO REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

SUN INTO TUE...AS STRONG NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN
ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA...THE WARM ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO RIDGE
AMPLIFICATION OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL LEAD
TO FAIRLY STRONG HIGH PRES DEVELOPMENT WHICH MAY LOCK IN PLACE FOR
A FEW DAYS OF DRY WX. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
MODERATING MID LVL TEMPS AND RISING HUMIDITY PARTICULARLY MON AND
TUE. H85 TEMPS INCREASE TO AN AVERAGE OF +12C MON...THEN CLOSER TO
+14C BY TUE. THEREFORE...AWAY FROM COASTLINES /WHERE SEA BREEZES
WILL LIMIT WARMING/ EXPECT TEMPS WARMER THAN EARLY JULY NORMALS.

MID-LATE NEXT WEEK...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...BECAUSE THIS IS SUCH A
ROBUST SHORTWAVE/CUTOFF THAT MODELS ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP...THERE
IS LITTLE AGREEMENT BETWEEN THEM REGARDING TIMING/STRENGTH...AND
ENSEMBLES ARE LITTLE HELP. HOWEVER...WITH FAIRLY WARM/HUMID
CONDITIONS AND AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
TRANSITION TO A WETTER AND MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN TOWARD THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR MOST AREAS...AFTER AREA OF FOG LIFTS FROM ACK. MAINLY W-SW
WINDS.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. AREAS OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
SHOWERS LIKELY FOR KACK...POSSIBLY REACHING THE S COAST AND CAPE
COD.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. WEAK SEA BREEZES LIKELY MOST DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

LINGERING ROUGH SEAS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TODAY. SO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL
PERSIST OVER THESE WATERS FOR A WHILE LONGER. CHANGEABLE WINDS AS
A COLD FRONT FIRST STALLS ACROSS THE WATERS...THEN MOVES FARTHER
OFFSHORE TONIGHT. WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KT. ONCE
SEAS DIMINISH BELOW 5 FEET...EXPECTING RATHER TRANQUIL BOATING
CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. THE MAIN ISSUE AT THAT POINT WOULD BE
REDUCED VISIBILITY IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. A WEEK LOW PRES WILL
PASS WELL S OF THE WATERS. THIS MAY LEAD TO E FLOW REACHING
20-25 KT ON THE SRN WATERS AND A BUILDING SWELL WHICH COULD REACH
5-6 FT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED. OTHERWISE...SOME
SHOWERS AND FOG AT TIMES MAY LEAD TO REDUCED VSBYS...MAINLY ON THE
SRN WATERS AS WELL.

SUN AN MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES WILL MOVE OVER THE WATERS
ALLOWING AND REMNANT SWELL TO SUBSIDE. AFTER WHICH QUIET BOATING
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ255-
     256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ235-
     237.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...BELK/DOODY
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 021120
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
720 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE SOUTH COAST TODAY...BEFORE
MOVING OFFSHORE TONIGHT. ASIDE FROM A FEW SHOWERS LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT OVER CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS...AND A SPOT SHOWER NEAR THE
SOUTH COAST ON SATURDAY...DRY WEATHER PREVAILS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH GRADUALLY WARMING CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
7AM UPDATE...
A WEAK FRONT WILL CONTINUE IT/S VERY SLOW PUSH OFFSHORE TODAY. AS
IT DOES SO A SECONDARY UPPER LVL WAVE WILL LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF
A WAVE OF LOW PRES LATE NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR
A FEW SHOWERS TO MOVE WITHIN VICINITY OF THE S COAST...BUT MAINLY
DURING THE EVENING HOURS. ADJUSTED POPS TOWARD THIS THINKING. ONLY
OTHER GRID EDITS WERE TO BRING TEMPS/DWPTS UP TO CURRENT TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

A WEAK COLD FRONT STALLS NEAR THE COAST...BUT THE ATMOSPHERE IS
FAIRLY DRY WITH LIMITED TO NO INSTABILITY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
MAINLY SOME CLOUDS AND DRY WEATHER. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE TOWARDS
NANTUCKET...WHERE CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND THERE IS A LOW RISK
FOR A SHOWER LATE AS SOME MOISTURE MOVES NORTH AHEAD OF WEAK
FRONTAL WAVE. LOCAL SEABREEZES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES LOWER ALONG
THE COAST...WHERE THEY DEVELOP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
WEAK FRONT MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL WAVE
PASSES BY THE BENCHMARK. MAJORITY OF THE RAINFALL WILL STAY SOUTH
OF OUR REGION. HOWEVER...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TOWARD
NANTUCKET...WITH A LOWER RISK OF THESE SHOWERS REACHING AS FAR
NORTH AS CAPE COD...AND AS FAR WEST AS THE VINEYARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

 * LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER ON SATURDAY.
 * GRADUALLY WARMING CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...AMPLIFIED BLOCKING FLOW PATTERN
CONTINUES MAINLY ACROSS THE ERN PACIFIC AND WRN ATLANTIC UNDER
STRONG RIDGING...ESPECIALLY IN THE PACIFIC WHERE THE EPO IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO DIVE STRONGLY NEGATIVE. THIS LEAVES MUCH
OF THE CONUS IN A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW REGIME. NEARLY...BECAUSE VERY
WEAK TROUGHING IS EVIDENT PARTICULARLY AS NRN STREAM ENERGY MOVES
SHIFTS THROUGH HE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE MEAN JET. HOWEVER...UNTIL
ABOUT THE MID PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW
SRN NEW ENGLAND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WRN ATLANTIC RIDGING.
SO EVEN WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE THIS WEEKEND...IT LOOKS TO
MOVE THROUGH WITH LITTLE FANFARE AS SOUNDINGS SHOW DRY/SUBSIDENCE
IN PLACE. WITH MODERATE AGREEMENT BETWEEN OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF
/SOME SMALLER SCALE DIFFERENCES EXIST/ A BLEND WILL BE USED
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. BEYOND THIS...THERE IS SOME SIGNIFICANT
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING A SHIFT AS THE NRN STREAM VORTEX REGAINS
CONTROL ACROSS THE AREA...LEADING TO A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN.

DETAILS...

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT...WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING E FROM
THE GREAT LAKES AND A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE S...WILL
LIKELY SEE CYCLOGENESIS OF A WEAK LOW PRES CENTER WELL TO THE S.
THIS WILL ALSO INTRODUCE RIDGE OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR WHICH LOOKS
TO REMAIN TO THE W. FOR NOW...THE BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO REMAIN NEAR
THE S COAST...CLOSER TO THE DEVELOPING LOW PRES. HOWEVER...COLUMN
REMAINS MOSTLY DRY AND SUGGESTS SOME INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE MOVING
E OF THE REGION. SO SUSPECT ONLY A FEW SPOT SHOWERS TO CONTEND
WITH AT MOST. TEMPS AT H85 ARE AROUND +10C...SO SUSPECT 2M TEMPS
TO REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

SUN INTO TUE...AS STRONG NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN
ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA...THE WARM ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO RIDGE
AMPLIFICATION OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL LEAD
TO FAIRLY STRONG HIGH PRES DEVELOPMENT WHICH MAY LOCK IN PLACE FOR
A FEW DAYS OF DRY WX. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
MODERATING MID LVL TEMPS AND RISING HUMIDITY PARTICULARLY MON AND
TUE. H85 TEMPS INCREASE TO AN AVERAGE OF +12C MON...THEN CLOSER TO
+14C BY TUE. THEREFORE...AWAY FROM COASTLINES /WHERE SEA BREEZES
WILL LIMIT WARMING/ EXPECT TEMPS WARMER THAN EARLY JULY NORMALS.

MID-LATE NEXT WEEK...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...BECAUSE THIS IS SUCH A
ROBUST SHORTWAVE/CUTOFF THAT MODELS ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP...THERE
IS LITTLE AGREEMENT BETWEEN THEM REGARDING TIMING/STRENGTH...AND
ENSEMBLES ARE LITTLE HELP. HOWEVER...WITH FAIRLY WARM/HUMID
CONDITIONS AND AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
TRANSITION TO A WETTER AND MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN TOWARD THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR MOST AREAS...AFTER AREA OF FOG LIFTS FROM ACK. MAINLY W-SW
WINDS.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. AREAS OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
SHOWERS LIKELY FOR KACK...POSSIBLY REACHING THE S COAST AND CAPE
COD.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. WEAK SEA BREEZES LIKELY MOST DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

LINGERING ROUGH SEAS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TODAY. SO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL
PERSIST OVER THESE WATERS FOR A WHILE LONGER. CHANGEABLE WINDS AS
A COLD FRONT FIRST STALLS ACROSS THE WATERS...THEN MOVES FARTHER
OFFSHORE TONIGHT. WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KT. ONCE
SEAS DIMINISH BELOW 5 FEET...EXPECTING RATHER TRANQUIL BOATING
CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. THE MAIN ISSUE AT THAT POINT WOULD BE
REDUCED VISIBILITY IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. A WEEK LOW PRES WILL
PASS WELL S OF THE WATERS. THIS MAY LEAD TO E FLOW REACHING
20-25 KT ON THE SRN WATERS AND A BUILDING SWELL WHICH COULD REACH
5-6 FT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED. OTHERWISE...SOME
SHOWERS AND FOG AT TIMES MAY LEAD TO REDUCED VSBYS...MAINLY ON THE
SRN WATERS AS WELL.

SUN AN MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES WILL MOVE OVER THE WATERS
ALLOWING AND REMNANT SWELL TO SUBSIDE. AFTER WHICH QUIET BOATING
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ255-
     256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ235-
     237.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...BELK/DOODY
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KALY 021027
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
627 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT
LAKES THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD BRING GENERALLY DRY WEATHER ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND 5 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COULD BRING AN
AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ON SATURDAY TO A FEW AREAS MAINLY
NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER WITH
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 630 AM EDT...PATCHY LOW CLOUDS PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE BERKSHIRES/SOUTHERN GREENS...AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. MEANWHILE...PATCHY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE INCREASING
ACROSS WESTERN NYS...AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE.

THE HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION FOR A PERIOD THIS MORNING. THEY SHOULD THEN SETTLE
SOUTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH POSSIBLY SLOWING DOWN A BIT.
IN ADDITION...WITH A COLD POOL ALOFT APPROACHING/PASSING THROUGH
LATER THIS MORNING INTO MID AFTERNOON...ADDITIONAL SHALLOW
CONVECTIVE CLOUDS SHOULD DEVELOP. SO...SKIES WILL MOST LIKELY VARY
BETWEEN PARTLY SUNNY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR A BIT THIS MORNING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...TRENDING TO MOSTLY SUNNY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON FOR AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90.

FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-90...LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE WITH
THE APPROACH/PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD POOL. SEVERAL
MESOSCALE MODELS SUCH AS THE LOCAL WRF...HRRR...AND SEVERAL SREF
MEMBERS SUGGEST ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES DEVELOPING
LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...FOR AREAS MAINLY
SOUTH OF THE GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT...ESP FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
HAVE INDICATED SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR THESE AREAS DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES. THESE CONVECTIVE
CLOUDS/SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN QUITE SHALLOW...AS A STRONG MID LEVEL CAP
SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE LIMITING POTENTIAL VERTICAL EXTENT...AND
ICE FORMATION...THEREFORE NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDER AT THIS TIME.

AS FOR MAX TEMPS...HAVE SIDED WITH...OR EVEN WENT A BIT BELOW THE
COOLER MAV MOS FOR MOST AREAS...ESP NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...AS
COOLER AIR BELOW H925 ADVECTS SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE DAY IN
THE WAKE OF A WEAK SFC TROUGH. THEREFORE...EXPECT MID/UPPER 70S
FOR MOST VALLEYS FROM ALBANY NORTH AND WEST...TO AROUND OR JUST
OVER 80 TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. HIGHER ELEVATIONS SHOULD REACH THE
MID 60S TO NEAR 70 ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
VT...AND GENERALLY LOWER TO MID 70S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY...EXCEPT FOR OCCASIONAL
HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS ON FRIDAY...AS A
WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION. TEMPS
SHOULD BE QUITE COOL TONIGHT...WITH UPPER 40S TO MID 50S FAIRLY
COMMON...AND EVEN SOME LOWER/MID 40S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN VT. FRI
MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH 75-80 IN VALLEYS...AND MAINLY 70-75 ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS MAY ONLY REACH THE
MID/UPPER 60S. FRI NT/SAT AM MINS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH STILL COOL FOR EARLY JULY...WITH UPPER 40S TO
MID 50S IN MOST AREAS.

SAT-SAT NT...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING A PAIR OF UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES AND THEIR POTENTIAL INTERACTION WITH SOME LOW/MID
LEVEL MOISTURE LURKING TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE REGION. ONE
IMPULSE SHOULD PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION IN THE MORNING...WITH
ANOTHER...SLIGHTLY STRONGER IMPULSE APPROACHING FROM THE THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE DAY OR SAT NT. THE FIRST IMPULSE
COULD BRING SOME CLOUDS TO SOUTHERN AREAS IN THE MORNING. AT THIS
TIME...HAVE NOT INDICATED ANY PRECIP...BUT TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED...AS SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS COULD OCCUR IN THE MORNING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT IF
THIS IMPULSE TRACKS A BIT FURTHER NORTH. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE A BIT MORE PROBABLE WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE SECOND IMPULSE...ALTHOUGH THE TIMING WOULD FAVOR
MAINLY WESTERN AREAS WITH SOME LOW CHANCES FOR A LATE DAY/EVENING
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM...SUCH AS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS/SCHOHARIE
VALLEY/MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS. HAVE INDICATED
SLIGHT CHC/LOW CHC POPS FOR THESE AREAS LATE IN THE DAY INTO EARLY
SAT NT...WHILE KEEPING AREAS E OF THE HUDSON RIVER DRY FOR NOW.
OVERALL AREAL COVERAGE SHOULD NOT BE VERY WIDESPREAD EVEN IF THEY
DO REACH THESE AREAS. OTHERWISE...MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER
80S IN VALLEYS AND 70S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH SAT NT/SUN
AM MINS FALLING INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO START OFF DRY AS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY MORNING AND
SETTLES ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. THERE SHOULD BE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL BOTH DAYS. EXPECT HIGHS ON BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY TO BE IN
THE MID 70S TO MID 80S WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S AND MONDAY
NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

A RETURN TO UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS FIRST A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE FA ON TUESDAY
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY FOR SUNDAY. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE 70S TO LOWER
80S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ENDING
AT 12Z FRIDAY AS A RESULT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF
THE TAF PERIOD. WESTERLY WINDS OF LESS THAN 10 KTS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY WITH A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT KGFL. WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING AND GO CALM OVERNIGHT. SOME LATE
NIGHT FOG IS EXPECTED TONIGHT MAINLY AFT 08Z WITH IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE AT KGFL AND KPSF.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OCCURRED TUE-WED. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY
LIGHT TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY AS A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AFTER THE WIDESPREAD 1-2 INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER THE PAST TWO
DAYS...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
SATURDAY...OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN SUNDAY
THROUGH LATE MONDAY. RIVER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FALL
THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD...AFTER SOME INITIAL CRESTS TODAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/HWJIV/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...IAA/11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/KL




000
FXUS61 KALY 021027
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
627 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT
LAKES THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD BRING GENERALLY DRY WEATHER ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND 5 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COULD BRING AN
AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ON SATURDAY TO A FEW AREAS MAINLY
NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER WITH
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 630 AM EDT...PATCHY LOW CLOUDS PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE BERKSHIRES/SOUTHERN GREENS...AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. MEANWHILE...PATCHY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE INCREASING
ACROSS WESTERN NYS...AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE.

THE HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION FOR A PERIOD THIS MORNING. THEY SHOULD THEN SETTLE
SOUTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH POSSIBLY SLOWING DOWN A BIT.
IN ADDITION...WITH A COLD POOL ALOFT APPROACHING/PASSING THROUGH
LATER THIS MORNING INTO MID AFTERNOON...ADDITIONAL SHALLOW
CONVECTIVE CLOUDS SHOULD DEVELOP. SO...SKIES WILL MOST LIKELY VARY
BETWEEN PARTLY SUNNY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR A BIT THIS MORNING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...TRENDING TO MOSTLY SUNNY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON FOR AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90.

FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-90...LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE WITH
THE APPROACH/PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD POOL. SEVERAL
MESOSCALE MODELS SUCH AS THE LOCAL WRF...HRRR...AND SEVERAL SREF
MEMBERS SUGGEST ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES DEVELOPING
LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...FOR AREAS MAINLY
SOUTH OF THE GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT...ESP FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
HAVE INDICATED SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR THESE AREAS DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES. THESE CONVECTIVE
CLOUDS/SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN QUITE SHALLOW...AS A STRONG MID LEVEL CAP
SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE LIMITING POTENTIAL VERTICAL EXTENT...AND
ICE FORMATION...THEREFORE NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDER AT THIS TIME.

AS FOR MAX TEMPS...HAVE SIDED WITH...OR EVEN WENT A BIT BELOW THE
COOLER MAV MOS FOR MOST AREAS...ESP NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...AS
COOLER AIR BELOW H925 ADVECTS SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE DAY IN
THE WAKE OF A WEAK SFC TROUGH. THEREFORE...EXPECT MID/UPPER 70S
FOR MOST VALLEYS FROM ALBANY NORTH AND WEST...TO AROUND OR JUST
OVER 80 TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. HIGHER ELEVATIONS SHOULD REACH THE
MID 60S TO NEAR 70 ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
VT...AND GENERALLY LOWER TO MID 70S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY...EXCEPT FOR OCCASIONAL
HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS ON FRIDAY...AS A
WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION. TEMPS
SHOULD BE QUITE COOL TONIGHT...WITH UPPER 40S TO MID 50S FAIRLY
COMMON...AND EVEN SOME LOWER/MID 40S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN VT. FRI
MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH 75-80 IN VALLEYS...AND MAINLY 70-75 ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS MAY ONLY REACH THE
MID/UPPER 60S. FRI NT/SAT AM MINS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH STILL COOL FOR EARLY JULY...WITH UPPER 40S TO
MID 50S IN MOST AREAS.

SAT-SAT NT...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING A PAIR OF UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES AND THEIR POTENTIAL INTERACTION WITH SOME LOW/MID
LEVEL MOISTURE LURKING TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE REGION. ONE
IMPULSE SHOULD PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION IN THE MORNING...WITH
ANOTHER...SLIGHTLY STRONGER IMPULSE APPROACHING FROM THE THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE DAY OR SAT NT. THE FIRST IMPULSE
COULD BRING SOME CLOUDS TO SOUTHERN AREAS IN THE MORNING. AT THIS
TIME...HAVE NOT INDICATED ANY PRECIP...BUT TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED...AS SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS COULD OCCUR IN THE MORNING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT IF
THIS IMPULSE TRACKS A BIT FURTHER NORTH. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE A BIT MORE PROBABLE WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE SECOND IMPULSE...ALTHOUGH THE TIMING WOULD FAVOR
MAINLY WESTERN AREAS WITH SOME LOW CHANCES FOR A LATE DAY/EVENING
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM...SUCH AS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS/SCHOHARIE
VALLEY/MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS. HAVE INDICATED
SLIGHT CHC/LOW CHC POPS FOR THESE AREAS LATE IN THE DAY INTO EARLY
SAT NT...WHILE KEEPING AREAS E OF THE HUDSON RIVER DRY FOR NOW.
OVERALL AREAL COVERAGE SHOULD NOT BE VERY WIDESPREAD EVEN IF THEY
DO REACH THESE AREAS. OTHERWISE...MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER
80S IN VALLEYS AND 70S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH SAT NT/SUN
AM MINS FALLING INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO START OFF DRY AS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY MORNING AND
SETTLES ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. THERE SHOULD BE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL BOTH DAYS. EXPECT HIGHS ON BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY TO BE IN
THE MID 70S TO MID 80S WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S AND MONDAY
NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

A RETURN TO UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS FIRST A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE FA ON TUESDAY
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY FOR SUNDAY. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE 70S TO LOWER
80S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ENDING
AT 12Z FRIDAY AS A RESULT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF
THE TAF PERIOD. WESTERLY WINDS OF LESS THAN 10 KTS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY WITH A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT KGFL. WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING AND GO CALM OVERNIGHT. SOME LATE
NIGHT FOG IS EXPECTED TONIGHT MAINLY AFT 08Z WITH IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE AT KGFL AND KPSF.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OCCURRED TUE-WED. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY
LIGHT TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY AS A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AFTER THE WIDESPREAD 1-2 INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER THE PAST TWO
DAYS...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
SATURDAY...OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN SUNDAY
THROUGH LATE MONDAY. RIVER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FALL
THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD...AFTER SOME INITIAL CRESTS TODAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/HWJIV/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...IAA/11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/KL



000
FXUS61 KALY 021006
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
606 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT
LAKES THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD BRING GENERALLY DRY WEATHER ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND 5 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COULD BRING AN
AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ON SATURDAY TO A FEW AREAS MAINLY
NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER WITH
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT...PATCHY LOW CLOUDS PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE BERKSHIRES/SOUTHERN GREENS...AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. MEANWHILE...PATCHY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE INCREASING
ACROSS WESTERN NYS...AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE.

THE HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE REGION FOR A
PERIOD THIS MORNING. THEY SHOULD THEN SETTLE SOUTHWARD THIS
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH POSSIBLY SLOWING DOWN A BIT. IN
ADDITION...WITH A COLD POOL ALOFT APPROACHING/PASSING THROUGH
LATER THIS MORNING INTO MID AFTERNOON...ADDITIONAL SHALLOW
CONVECTIVE CLOUDS SHOULD DEVELOP. SO...SKIES WILL MOST LIKELY VARY
BETWEEN PARTLY SUNNY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR A BIT THIS MORNING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...TRENDING TO MOSTLY SUNNY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON FOR AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90.

FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-90...LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE WITH
THE APPROACH/PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD POOL. SEVERAL
MESOSCALE MODELS SUCH AS THE LOCAL WRF...HRRR...AND SEVERAL SREF
MEMBERS SUGGEST ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES DEVELOPING
LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...FOR AREAS MAINLY
SOUTH OF THE GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT...ESP FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
HAVE INDICATED SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR THESE AREAS DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES. THESE CONVECTIVE
CLOUDS/SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN QUITE SHALLOW...AS A STRONG MID LEVEL CAP
SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE LIMITING POTENTIAL VERTICAL EXTENT...AND
ICE FORMATION...THEREFORE NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDER AT THIS TIME.

AS FOR MAX TEMPS...HAVE SIDED WITH...OR EVEN WENT A BIT BELOW THE
COOLER MAV MOS FOR MOST AREAS...ESP NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...AS
COOLER AIR BELOW H925 ADVECTS SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE DAY IN
THE WAKE OF A WEAK SFC TROUGH. THEREFORE...EXPECT MID/UPPER 70S
FOR MOST VALLEYS FROM ALBANY NORTH AND WEST...TO AROUND OR JUST
OVER 80 TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. HIGHER ELEVATIONS SHOULD REACH THE
MID 60S TO NEAR 70 ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
VT...AND GENERALLY LOWER TO MID 70S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY...EXCEPT FOR OCCASIONAL
HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS ON FRIDAY...AS A
WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION. TEMPS
SHOULD BE QUITE COOL TONIGHT...WITH UPPER 40S TO MID 50S FAIRLY
COMMON...AND EVEN SOME LOWER/MID 40S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN VT. FRI
MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH 75-80 IN VALLEYS...AND MAINLY 70-75 ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS MAY ONLY REACH THE
MID/UPPER 60S. FRI NT/SAT AM MINS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH STILL COOL FOR EARLY JULY...WITH UPPER 40S TO
MID 50S IN MOST AREAS.

SAT-SAT NT...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING A PAIR OF UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES AND THEIR POTENTIAL INTERACTION WITH SOME LOW/MID
LEVEL MOISTURE LURKING TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE REGION. ONE
IMPULSE SHOULD PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION IN THE MORNING...WITH
ANOTHER...SLIGHTLY STRONGER IMPULSE APPROACHING FROM THE THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE DAY OR SAT NT. THE FIRST IMPULSE
COULD BRING SOME CLOUDS TO SOUTHERN AREAS IN THE MORNING. AT THIS
TIME...HAVE NOT INDICATED ANY PRECIP...BUT TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED...AS SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS COULD OCCUR IN THE MORNING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT IF
THIS IMPULSE TRACKS A BIT FURTHER NORTH. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE A BIT MORE PROBABLE WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE SECOND IMPULSE...ALTHOUGH THE TIMING WOULD FAVOR
MAINLY WESTERN AREAS WITH SOME LOW CHANCES FOR A LATE DAY/EVENING
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM...SUCH AS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS/SCHOHARIE
VALLEY/MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS. HAVE INDICATED
SLIGHT CHC/LOW CHC POPS FOR THESE AREAS LATE IN THE DAY INTO EARLY
SAT NT...WHILE KEEPING AREAS E OF THE HUDSON RIVER DRY FOR NOW.
OVERALL AREAL COVERAGE SHOULD NOT BE VERY WIDESPREAD EVEN IF THEY
DO REACH THESE AREAS. OTHERWISE...MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER
80S IN VALLEYS AND 70S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH SAT NT/SUN
AM MINS FALLING INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO START OFF DRY AS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY MORNING AND
SETTLES ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. THERE SHOULD BE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL BOTH DAYS. EXPECT HIGHS ON BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY TO BE IN
THE MID 70S TO MID 80S WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S AND MONDAY
NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

A RETURN TO UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS FIRST A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE FA ON TUESDAY
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY FOR SUNDAY. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE 70S TO LOWER
80S.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ENDING
AT 12Z FRIDAY AS A RESULT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF
THE TAF PERIOD. WESTERLY WINDS OF LESS THAN 10 KTS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY WITH A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT KGFL. WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING AND GO CALM OVERNIGHT. SOME LATE
NIGHT FOG IS EXPECTED TONIGHT MAINLY AFT 08Z WITH IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE AT KGFL AND KPSF.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OCCURRED TUE-WED. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY
LIGHT TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY AS A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AFTER THE WIDESPREAD 1-2 INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER THE PAST TWO
DAYS...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
SATURDAY...OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN SUNDAY
THROUGH LATE MONDAY. RIVER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FALL
THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD...AFTER SOME INITIAL CRESTS TODAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/HWJIV/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...IAA/11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/KL




000
FXUS61 KALY 021006
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
606 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT
LAKES THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD BRING GENERALLY DRY WEATHER ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND 5 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COULD BRING AN
AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ON SATURDAY TO A FEW AREAS MAINLY
NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER WITH
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT...PATCHY LOW CLOUDS PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE BERKSHIRES/SOUTHERN GREENS...AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. MEANWHILE...PATCHY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE INCREASING
ACROSS WESTERN NYS...AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE.

THE HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE REGION FOR A
PERIOD THIS MORNING. THEY SHOULD THEN SETTLE SOUTHWARD THIS
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH POSSIBLY SLOWING DOWN A BIT. IN
ADDITION...WITH A COLD POOL ALOFT APPROACHING/PASSING THROUGH
LATER THIS MORNING INTO MID AFTERNOON...ADDITIONAL SHALLOW
CONVECTIVE CLOUDS SHOULD DEVELOP. SO...SKIES WILL MOST LIKELY VARY
BETWEEN PARTLY SUNNY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR A BIT THIS MORNING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...TRENDING TO MOSTLY SUNNY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON FOR AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90.

FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-90...LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE WITH
THE APPROACH/PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD POOL. SEVERAL
MESOSCALE MODELS SUCH AS THE LOCAL WRF...HRRR...AND SEVERAL SREF
MEMBERS SUGGEST ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES DEVELOPING
LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...FOR AREAS MAINLY
SOUTH OF THE GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT...ESP FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
HAVE INDICATED SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR THESE AREAS DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES. THESE CONVECTIVE
CLOUDS/SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN QUITE SHALLOW...AS A STRONG MID LEVEL CAP
SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE LIMITING POTENTIAL VERTICAL EXTENT...AND
ICE FORMATION...THEREFORE NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDER AT THIS TIME.

AS FOR MAX TEMPS...HAVE SIDED WITH...OR EVEN WENT A BIT BELOW THE
COOLER MAV MOS FOR MOST AREAS...ESP NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...AS
COOLER AIR BELOW H925 ADVECTS SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE DAY IN
THE WAKE OF A WEAK SFC TROUGH. THEREFORE...EXPECT MID/UPPER 70S
FOR MOST VALLEYS FROM ALBANY NORTH AND WEST...TO AROUND OR JUST
OVER 80 TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. HIGHER ELEVATIONS SHOULD REACH THE
MID 60S TO NEAR 70 ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
VT...AND GENERALLY LOWER TO MID 70S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY...EXCEPT FOR OCCASIONAL
HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS ON FRIDAY...AS A
WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION. TEMPS
SHOULD BE QUITE COOL TONIGHT...WITH UPPER 40S TO MID 50S FAIRLY
COMMON...AND EVEN SOME LOWER/MID 40S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN VT. FRI
MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH 75-80 IN VALLEYS...AND MAINLY 70-75 ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS MAY ONLY REACH THE
MID/UPPER 60S. FRI NT/SAT AM MINS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH STILL COOL FOR EARLY JULY...WITH UPPER 40S TO
MID 50S IN MOST AREAS.

SAT-SAT NT...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING A PAIR OF UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES AND THEIR POTENTIAL INTERACTION WITH SOME LOW/MID
LEVEL MOISTURE LURKING TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE REGION. ONE
IMPULSE SHOULD PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION IN THE MORNING...WITH
ANOTHER...SLIGHTLY STRONGER IMPULSE APPROACHING FROM THE THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE DAY OR SAT NT. THE FIRST IMPULSE
COULD BRING SOME CLOUDS TO SOUTHERN AREAS IN THE MORNING. AT THIS
TIME...HAVE NOT INDICATED ANY PRECIP...BUT TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED...AS SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS COULD OCCUR IN THE MORNING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT IF
THIS IMPULSE TRACKS A BIT FURTHER NORTH. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE A BIT MORE PROBABLE WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE SECOND IMPULSE...ALTHOUGH THE TIMING WOULD FAVOR
MAINLY WESTERN AREAS WITH SOME LOW CHANCES FOR A LATE DAY/EVENING
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM...SUCH AS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS/SCHOHARIE
VALLEY/MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS. HAVE INDICATED
SLIGHT CHC/LOW CHC POPS FOR THESE AREAS LATE IN THE DAY INTO EARLY
SAT NT...WHILE KEEPING AREAS E OF THE HUDSON RIVER DRY FOR NOW.
OVERALL AREAL COVERAGE SHOULD NOT BE VERY WIDESPREAD EVEN IF THEY
DO REACH THESE AREAS. OTHERWISE...MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER
80S IN VALLEYS AND 70S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH SAT NT/SUN
AM MINS FALLING INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO START OFF DRY AS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY MORNING AND
SETTLES ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. THERE SHOULD BE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL BOTH DAYS. EXPECT HIGHS ON BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY TO BE IN
THE MID 70S TO MID 80S WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S AND MONDAY
NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

A RETURN TO UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS FIRST A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE FA ON TUESDAY
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY FOR SUNDAY. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE 70S TO LOWER
80S.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ENDING
AT 12Z FRIDAY AS A RESULT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF
THE TAF PERIOD. WESTERLY WINDS OF LESS THAN 10 KTS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY WITH A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT KGFL. WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING AND GO CALM OVERNIGHT. SOME LATE
NIGHT FOG IS EXPECTED TONIGHT MAINLY AFT 08Z WITH IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE AT KGFL AND KPSF.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OCCURRED TUE-WED. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY
LIGHT TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY AS A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AFTER THE WIDESPREAD 1-2 INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER THE PAST TWO
DAYS...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
SATURDAY...OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN SUNDAY
THROUGH LATE MONDAY. RIVER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FALL
THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD...AFTER SOME INITIAL CRESTS TODAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/HWJIV/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...IAA/11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/KL




000
FXUS61 KALY 021006
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
606 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT
LAKES THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD BRING GENERALLY DRY WEATHER ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND 5 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COULD BRING AN
AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ON SATURDAY TO A FEW AREAS MAINLY
NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER WITH
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT...PATCHY LOW CLOUDS PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE BERKSHIRES/SOUTHERN GREENS...AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. MEANWHILE...PATCHY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE INCREASING
ACROSS WESTERN NYS...AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE.

THE HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE REGION FOR A
PERIOD THIS MORNING. THEY SHOULD THEN SETTLE SOUTHWARD THIS
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH POSSIBLY SLOWING DOWN A BIT. IN
ADDITION...WITH A COLD POOL ALOFT APPROACHING/PASSING THROUGH
LATER THIS MORNING INTO MID AFTERNOON...ADDITIONAL SHALLOW
CONVECTIVE CLOUDS SHOULD DEVELOP. SO...SKIES WILL MOST LIKELY VARY
BETWEEN PARTLY SUNNY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR A BIT THIS MORNING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...TRENDING TO MOSTLY SUNNY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON FOR AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90.

FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-90...LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE WITH
THE APPROACH/PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD POOL. SEVERAL
MESOSCALE MODELS SUCH AS THE LOCAL WRF...HRRR...AND SEVERAL SREF
MEMBERS SUGGEST ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES DEVELOPING
LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...FOR AREAS MAINLY
SOUTH OF THE GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT...ESP FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
HAVE INDICATED SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR THESE AREAS DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES. THESE CONVECTIVE
CLOUDS/SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN QUITE SHALLOW...AS A STRONG MID LEVEL CAP
SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE LIMITING POTENTIAL VERTICAL EXTENT...AND
ICE FORMATION...THEREFORE NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDER AT THIS TIME.

AS FOR MAX TEMPS...HAVE SIDED WITH...OR EVEN WENT A BIT BELOW THE
COOLER MAV MOS FOR MOST AREAS...ESP NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...AS
COOLER AIR BELOW H925 ADVECTS SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE DAY IN
THE WAKE OF A WEAK SFC TROUGH. THEREFORE...EXPECT MID/UPPER 70S
FOR MOST VALLEYS FROM ALBANY NORTH AND WEST...TO AROUND OR JUST
OVER 80 TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. HIGHER ELEVATIONS SHOULD REACH THE
MID 60S TO NEAR 70 ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
VT...AND GENERALLY LOWER TO MID 70S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY...EXCEPT FOR OCCASIONAL
HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS ON FRIDAY...AS A
WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION. TEMPS
SHOULD BE QUITE COOL TONIGHT...WITH UPPER 40S TO MID 50S FAIRLY
COMMON...AND EVEN SOME LOWER/MID 40S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN VT. FRI
MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH 75-80 IN VALLEYS...AND MAINLY 70-75 ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS MAY ONLY REACH THE
MID/UPPER 60S. FRI NT/SAT AM MINS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH STILL COOL FOR EARLY JULY...WITH UPPER 40S TO
MID 50S IN MOST AREAS.

SAT-SAT NT...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING A PAIR OF UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES AND THEIR POTENTIAL INTERACTION WITH SOME LOW/MID
LEVEL MOISTURE LURKING TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE REGION. ONE
IMPULSE SHOULD PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION IN THE MORNING...WITH
ANOTHER...SLIGHTLY STRONGER IMPULSE APPROACHING FROM THE THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE DAY OR SAT NT. THE FIRST IMPULSE
COULD BRING SOME CLOUDS TO SOUTHERN AREAS IN THE MORNING. AT THIS
TIME...HAVE NOT INDICATED ANY PRECIP...BUT TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED...AS SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS COULD OCCUR IN THE MORNING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT IF
THIS IMPULSE TRACKS A BIT FURTHER NORTH. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE A BIT MORE PROBABLE WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE SECOND IMPULSE...ALTHOUGH THE TIMING WOULD FAVOR
MAINLY WESTERN AREAS WITH SOME LOW CHANCES FOR A LATE DAY/EVENING
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM...SUCH AS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS/SCHOHARIE
VALLEY/MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS. HAVE INDICATED
SLIGHT CHC/LOW CHC POPS FOR THESE AREAS LATE IN THE DAY INTO EARLY
SAT NT...WHILE KEEPING AREAS E OF THE HUDSON RIVER DRY FOR NOW.
OVERALL AREAL COVERAGE SHOULD NOT BE VERY WIDESPREAD EVEN IF THEY
DO REACH THESE AREAS. OTHERWISE...MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER
80S IN VALLEYS AND 70S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH SAT NT/SUN
AM MINS FALLING INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO START OFF DRY AS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY MORNING AND
SETTLES ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. THERE SHOULD BE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL BOTH DAYS. EXPECT HIGHS ON BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY TO BE IN
THE MID 70S TO MID 80S WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S AND MONDAY
NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

A RETURN TO UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS FIRST A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE FA ON TUESDAY
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY FOR SUNDAY. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE 70S TO LOWER
80S.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ENDING
AT 12Z FRIDAY AS A RESULT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF
THE TAF PERIOD. WESTERLY WINDS OF LESS THAN 10 KTS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY WITH A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT KGFL. WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING AND GO CALM OVERNIGHT. SOME LATE
NIGHT FOG IS EXPECTED TONIGHT MAINLY AFT 08Z WITH IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE AT KGFL AND KPSF.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OCCURRED TUE-WED. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY
LIGHT TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY AS A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AFTER THE WIDESPREAD 1-2 INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER THE PAST TWO
DAYS...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
SATURDAY...OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN SUNDAY
THROUGH LATE MONDAY. RIVER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FALL
THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD...AFTER SOME INITIAL CRESTS TODAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/HWJIV/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...IAA/11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/KL



000
FXUS61 KOKX 020932
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
532 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH OVERNIGHT. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH WILL LINGER ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN
FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO
THE SOUTH ON INDEPENDENCE DAY. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD IN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FCST ON TRACK...BUT UPDATE ISSUED TO ACCOMMODATE MARINE CHANGES.
SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY...WITH SCT FAIR WX CU
DEVELOPING AND HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER/MID 80S...BUT UPPER 70S
ALONG MOST SOUTH- FACING SHORELINES AND IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
THESE TEMPS ARE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THOSE OF YESTERDAY AND A
TOUCH LOWER THAN THE COOLER 00Z GFS MOS GUIDANCE.

COASTAL SEA BREEZES SHOULD DEVELOP...AND WILL BE WEAKER THAN THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH TEMPS INLAND.

EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDS...THOUGH COULD SEE AN ISOLD SHOWER OR
TSTM DEVELOP LATE TODAY IN/NEAR NE NJ IN POCKET OF
INSTABILITY/BLYR MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES.

THERE IS A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK AT THE OCEAN BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP IN/NEAR NE NJ COULD DRIFT E
TOWARD NYC NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD START TO BUILD FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT
INTO FRI...WITH N-NE FLOW AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...THEN WEAK
COASTAL SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE A COOLER LOWER/MID 60S IN MOST PLACES...AND
55-60 ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS WELL NORTH/WEST OF NYC.
HIGHS ON FRI UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER
STILL...MAINLY 75-80.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE 00Z MODEL SUITE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST WEAK LOW PRES WILL TRACK
OFF THE DELMARVA AND OUT TO SEA ON THE 4TH. THIS GIVES THE CWA A
GLANCING BLOW AT BEST...AND MAY ONLY RESULT IN SOME EXTRA CLOUDS
ESPECIALLY LI INTO THE CITY AND NJ. INCLUDED SOME LOW POPS...MAINLY
SCHC...FOR MOST OF THE AREA. IT SHOULD BE NOTED HOWEVER THAT AT THIS
POINT ANY RAIN LOOKS LGT AND SPOTTY AT BEST. THEREAFTER...HI PRES
BUILDS IN AND AS A RESULT HAVE GONE WITH A FAIR FCST THRU WED.
THE ECMWF DOES HINT AT SOME RAIN TUE AS RESIDUAL CONVECTION GETS
ENTRAINED IN THE UPR RIDGE. THIS APPEARS TO BE A ROGUE SOLN ATTM
HOWEVER SO HAVE KEPT POPS BLW 15. DESPITE A DRY AIR MASS SUN-WED
WITH PW GENERALLY AOB 1 INCH...THE HUMIDITY WILL NOT BE
PARTICULARLY LOW...ESPECIALLY AS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
ARRIVES...AS PERSISTENT SLY COMPONENT FLOW DRAWS LLVL MOISTURE
INTO THE CWA FROM THE ATLC. THIS COULD SET THE STAGE FOR SOME
BOUTS OF MRNG FOG IF WINDS ARE LGT ENOUGH. TEMPS THRU THE LONG
TERM CLOSE TO THE GMOS25 AND MAINLY AOB CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL TO THE S OF THE AREA TODAY AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

LIGHT NW-N FLOW WILL GIVE WAY TO SEA BREEZES AT THE COAST DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTN. COULD BE AN ISOLATED LATE DAY
SHOWER/TSTM NEAR THE NYC METRO TERMINALS. WINDS WILL LIKELY BECOME
LIGHT AND VRB FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SEABREEZE MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS.
DIRECTION FORECAST AT 17Z MAY BE 10-20 DEGREES MORE SE TO
START...BECOMING 180-190.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SEABREEZE MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: SEABREEZE MAY PUSH THROUGH THE AIRFIELD
BETWEEN 20-22Z

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: SEABREEZE MAY PUSH THROUGH THE AIRFIELD
BETWEEN 20-22Z

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: SEABREEZE MAY PUSH THROUGH THE AIRFIELD
BETWEEN 19-22Z

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SEABREEZE MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THU NIGHT...VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS.
.FRI...VFR WITH WINDS VEERING FROM THE NE TO THE ESE. SEA BREEZES
POSSIBLE.
.FRI NIGHT-SAT...LOW PRES WILL TRACK S OF THE REGION. IF THE LOW IS
CLOSE ENOUGH...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WITH -RA. WINDS GENERALLY NE
OR E.
.SAT NIGHT-MON...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS REMAIN AT 5 FT AT BUOY 44017 AND ARE CLOSER TO 4 FT AT THE
BUOYS TO THE WEST...SO SCAHS EXTENDED TO 15Z E OF MORICHES INLET.
THESE SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE BLW 5 FT BY NOON AS FLOW TURNS MORE
OFFSHORE AFTER A COLD FROPA.

SEAS WILL GET CLOSE TO 5 FT ON THE OCEAN ON SAT AS LOW PRES PASSES
TO THE S. ELSEWHERE...NE WINDS SHOULD BE IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL THEN LIKELY REMAIN BLW SCA LVLS SUN-WED AS A
BROAD AREA OF HI PRES SETTLES IN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT PCPN NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A FULL MOON...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 3/4 TO 1 1/2 FT ARE
NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED AT THE
PEAK OF THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDES THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
MINOR BENCHMARKS COULD BRIEFLY BE TOUCHED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE
BAYS OF NASSAU COUNTY THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY
     FOR ANZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...JMC/GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...JMC/GOODMAN
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...24
MARINE...JMC/GOODMAN
HYDROLOGY...JMC/GOODMAN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KOKX 020932
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
532 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH OVERNIGHT. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH WILL LINGER ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN
FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO
THE SOUTH ON INDEPENDENCE DAY. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD IN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FCST ON TRACK...BUT UPDATE ISSUED TO ACCOMMODATE MARINE CHANGES.
SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY...WITH SCT FAIR WX CU
DEVELOPING AND HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER/MID 80S...BUT UPPER 70S
ALONG MOST SOUTH- FACING SHORELINES AND IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
THESE TEMPS ARE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THOSE OF YESTERDAY AND A
TOUCH LOWER THAN THE COOLER 00Z GFS MOS GUIDANCE.

COASTAL SEA BREEZES SHOULD DEVELOP...AND WILL BE WEAKER THAN THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH TEMPS INLAND.

EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDS...THOUGH COULD SEE AN ISOLD SHOWER OR
TSTM DEVELOP LATE TODAY IN/NEAR NE NJ IN POCKET OF
INSTABILITY/BLYR MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES.

THERE IS A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK AT THE OCEAN BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP IN/NEAR NE NJ COULD DRIFT E
TOWARD NYC NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD START TO BUILD FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT
INTO FRI...WITH N-NE FLOW AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...THEN WEAK
COASTAL SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE A COOLER LOWER/MID 60S IN MOST PLACES...AND
55-60 ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS WELL NORTH/WEST OF NYC.
HIGHS ON FRI UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER
STILL...MAINLY 75-80.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE 00Z MODEL SUITE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST WEAK LOW PRES WILL TRACK
OFF THE DELMARVA AND OUT TO SEA ON THE 4TH. THIS GIVES THE CWA A
GLANCING BLOW AT BEST...AND MAY ONLY RESULT IN SOME EXTRA CLOUDS
ESPECIALLY LI INTO THE CITY AND NJ. INCLUDED SOME LOW POPS...MAINLY
SCHC...FOR MOST OF THE AREA. IT SHOULD BE NOTED HOWEVER THAT AT THIS
POINT ANY RAIN LOOKS LGT AND SPOTTY AT BEST. THEREAFTER...HI PRES
BUILDS IN AND AS A RESULT HAVE GONE WITH A FAIR FCST THRU WED.
THE ECMWF DOES HINT AT SOME RAIN TUE AS RESIDUAL CONVECTION GETS
ENTRAINED IN THE UPR RIDGE. THIS APPEARS TO BE A ROGUE SOLN ATTM
HOWEVER SO HAVE KEPT POPS BLW 15. DESPITE A DRY AIR MASS SUN-WED
WITH PW GENERALLY AOB 1 INCH...THE HUMIDITY WILL NOT BE
PARTICULARLY LOW...ESPECIALLY AS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
ARRIVES...AS PERSISTENT SLY COMPONENT FLOW DRAWS LLVL MOISTURE
INTO THE CWA FROM THE ATLC. THIS COULD SET THE STAGE FOR SOME
BOUTS OF MRNG FOG IF WINDS ARE LGT ENOUGH. TEMPS THRU THE LONG
TERM CLOSE TO THE GMOS25 AND MAINLY AOB CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL TO THE S OF THE AREA TODAY AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

LIGHT NW-N FLOW WILL GIVE WAY TO SEA BREEZES AT THE COAST DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTN. COULD BE AN ISOLATED LATE DAY
SHOWER/TSTM NEAR THE NYC METRO TERMINALS. WINDS WILL LIKELY BECOME
LIGHT AND VRB FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SEABREEZE MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS.
DIRECTION FORECAST AT 17Z MAY BE 10-20 DEGREES MORE SE TO
START...BECOMING 180-190.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SEABREEZE MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: SEABREEZE MAY PUSH THROUGH THE AIRFIELD
BETWEEN 20-22Z

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: SEABREEZE MAY PUSH THROUGH THE AIRFIELD
BETWEEN 20-22Z

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: SEABREEZE MAY PUSH THROUGH THE AIRFIELD
BETWEEN 19-22Z

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SEABREEZE MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THU NIGHT...VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS.
.FRI...VFR WITH WINDS VEERING FROM THE NE TO THE ESE. SEA BREEZES
POSSIBLE.
.FRI NIGHT-SAT...LOW PRES WILL TRACK S OF THE REGION. IF THE LOW IS
CLOSE ENOUGH...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WITH -RA. WINDS GENERALLY NE
OR E.
.SAT NIGHT-MON...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS REMAIN AT 5 FT AT BUOY 44017 AND ARE CLOSER TO 4 FT AT THE
BUOYS TO THE WEST...SO SCAHS EXTENDED TO 15Z E OF MORICHES INLET.
THESE SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE BLW 5 FT BY NOON AS FLOW TURNS MORE
OFFSHORE AFTER A COLD FROPA.

SEAS WILL GET CLOSE TO 5 FT ON THE OCEAN ON SAT AS LOW PRES PASSES
TO THE S. ELSEWHERE...NE WINDS SHOULD BE IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL THEN LIKELY REMAIN BLW SCA LVLS SUN-WED AS A
BROAD AREA OF HI PRES SETTLES IN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT PCPN NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A FULL MOON...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 3/4 TO 1 1/2 FT ARE
NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED AT THE
PEAK OF THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDES THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
MINOR BENCHMARKS COULD BRIEFLY BE TOUCHED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE
BAYS OF NASSAU COUNTY THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY
     FOR ANZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...JMC/GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...JMC/GOODMAN
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...24
MARINE...JMC/GOODMAN
HYDROLOGY...JMC/GOODMAN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KOKX 020932
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
532 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH OVERNIGHT. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH WILL LINGER ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN
FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO
THE SOUTH ON INDEPENDENCE DAY. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD IN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FCST ON TRACK...BUT UPDATE ISSUED TO ACCOMMODATE MARINE CHANGES.
SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY...WITH SCT FAIR WX CU
DEVELOPING AND HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER/MID 80S...BUT UPPER 70S
ALONG MOST SOUTH- FACING SHORELINES AND IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
THESE TEMPS ARE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THOSE OF YESTERDAY AND A
TOUCH LOWER THAN THE COOLER 00Z GFS MOS GUIDANCE.

COASTAL SEA BREEZES SHOULD DEVELOP...AND WILL BE WEAKER THAN THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH TEMPS INLAND.

EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDS...THOUGH COULD SEE AN ISOLD SHOWER OR
TSTM DEVELOP LATE TODAY IN/NEAR NE NJ IN POCKET OF
INSTABILITY/BLYR MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES.

THERE IS A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK AT THE OCEAN BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP IN/NEAR NE NJ COULD DRIFT E
TOWARD NYC NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD START TO BUILD FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT
INTO FRI...WITH N-NE FLOW AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...THEN WEAK
COASTAL SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE A COOLER LOWER/MID 60S IN MOST PLACES...AND
55-60 ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS WELL NORTH/WEST OF NYC.
HIGHS ON FRI UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER
STILL...MAINLY 75-80.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE 00Z MODEL SUITE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST WEAK LOW PRES WILL TRACK
OFF THE DELMARVA AND OUT TO SEA ON THE 4TH. THIS GIVES THE CWA A
GLANCING BLOW AT BEST...AND MAY ONLY RESULT IN SOME EXTRA CLOUDS
ESPECIALLY LI INTO THE CITY AND NJ. INCLUDED SOME LOW POPS...MAINLY
SCHC...FOR MOST OF THE AREA. IT SHOULD BE NOTED HOWEVER THAT AT THIS
POINT ANY RAIN LOOKS LGT AND SPOTTY AT BEST. THEREAFTER...HI PRES
BUILDS IN AND AS A RESULT HAVE GONE WITH A FAIR FCST THRU WED.
THE ECMWF DOES HINT AT SOME RAIN TUE AS RESIDUAL CONVECTION GETS
ENTRAINED IN THE UPR RIDGE. THIS APPEARS TO BE A ROGUE SOLN ATTM
HOWEVER SO HAVE KEPT POPS BLW 15. DESPITE A DRY AIR MASS SUN-WED
WITH PW GENERALLY AOB 1 INCH...THE HUMIDITY WILL NOT BE
PARTICULARLY LOW...ESPECIALLY AS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
ARRIVES...AS PERSISTENT SLY COMPONENT FLOW DRAWS LLVL MOISTURE
INTO THE CWA FROM THE ATLC. THIS COULD SET THE STAGE FOR SOME
BOUTS OF MRNG FOG IF WINDS ARE LGT ENOUGH. TEMPS THRU THE LONG
TERM CLOSE TO THE GMOS25 AND MAINLY AOB CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL TO THE S OF THE AREA TODAY AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

LIGHT NW-N FLOW WILL GIVE WAY TO SEA BREEZES AT THE COAST DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTN. COULD BE AN ISOLATED LATE DAY
SHOWER/TSTM NEAR THE NYC METRO TERMINALS. WINDS WILL LIKELY BECOME
LIGHT AND VRB FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SEABREEZE MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS.
DIRECTION FORECAST AT 17Z MAY BE 10-20 DEGREES MORE SE TO
START...BECOMING 180-190.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SEABREEZE MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: SEABREEZE MAY PUSH THROUGH THE AIRFIELD
BETWEEN 20-22Z

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: SEABREEZE MAY PUSH THROUGH THE AIRFIELD
BETWEEN 20-22Z

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: SEABREEZE MAY PUSH THROUGH THE AIRFIELD
BETWEEN 19-22Z

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SEABREEZE MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THU NIGHT...VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS.
.FRI...VFR WITH WINDS VEERING FROM THE NE TO THE ESE. SEA BREEZES
POSSIBLE.
.FRI NIGHT-SAT...LOW PRES WILL TRACK S OF THE REGION. IF THE LOW IS
CLOSE ENOUGH...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WITH -RA. WINDS GENERALLY NE
OR E.
.SAT NIGHT-MON...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS REMAIN AT 5 FT AT BUOY 44017 AND ARE CLOSER TO 4 FT AT THE
BUOYS TO THE WEST...SO SCAHS EXTENDED TO 15Z E OF MORICHES INLET.
THESE SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE BLW 5 FT BY NOON AS FLOW TURNS MORE
OFFSHORE AFTER A COLD FROPA.

SEAS WILL GET CLOSE TO 5 FT ON THE OCEAN ON SAT AS LOW PRES PASSES
TO THE S. ELSEWHERE...NE WINDS SHOULD BE IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL THEN LIKELY REMAIN BLW SCA LVLS SUN-WED AS A
BROAD AREA OF HI PRES SETTLES IN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT PCPN NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A FULL MOON...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 3/4 TO 1 1/2 FT ARE
NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED AT THE
PEAK OF THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDES THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
MINOR BENCHMARKS COULD BRIEFLY BE TOUCHED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE
BAYS OF NASSAU COUNTY THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY
     FOR ANZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...JMC/GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...JMC/GOODMAN
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...24
MARINE...JMC/GOODMAN
HYDROLOGY...JMC/GOODMAN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KOKX 020932 CCA
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
532 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL LINGER TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD IN FROM TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL
PASS TO THE SOUTH ON INDEPENDENCE DAY. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FCST ON TRACK...BUT UPDATE ISSUED TO ACCOMMODATE MARINE CHANGES.
SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY...WITH SCT FAIR WX CU
DEVELOPING AND HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER/MID 80S...BUT UPPER 70S
ALONG MOST SOUTH- FACING SHORELINES AND IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
THESE TEMPS ARE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THOSE OF YESTERDAY AND A
TOUCH LOWER THAN THE COOLER 00Z GFS MOS GUIDANCE.

COASTAL SEA BREEZES SHOULD DEVELOP...AND WILL BE WEAKER THAN THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH TEMPS INLAND.

EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDS...THOUGH COULD SEE AN ISOLD SHOWER OR
TSTM DEVELOP LATE TODAY IN/NEAR NE NJ IN POCKET OF
INSTABILITY/BLYR MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES.

THERE IS A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK AT THE OCEAN BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP IN/NEAR NE NJ COULD DRIFT E
TOWARD NYC NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD START TO BUILD FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT
INTO FRI...WITH N-NE FLOW AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...THEN WEAK
COASTAL SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE A COOLER LOWER/MID 60S IN MOST PLACES...AND
55-60 ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS WELL NORTH/WEST OF NYC.
HIGHS ON FRI UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER
STILL...MAINLY 75-80.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE 00Z MODEL SUITE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST WEAK LOW PRES WILL TRACK
OFF THE DELMARVA AND OUT TO SEA ON THE 4TH. THIS GIVES THE CWA A
GLANCING BLOW AT BEST...AND MAY ONLY RESULT IN SOME EXTRA CLOUDS
ESPECIALLY LI INTO THE CITY AND NJ. INCLUDED SOME LOW POPS...MAINLY
SCHC...FOR MOST OF THE AREA. IT SHOULD BE NOTED HOWEVER THAT AT THIS
POINT ANY RAIN LOOKS LGT AND SPOTTY AT BEST. THEREAFTER...HI PRES
BUILDS IN AND AS A RESULT HAVE GONE WITH A FAIR FCST THRU WED.
THE ECMWF DOES HINT AT SOME RAIN TUE AS RESIDUAL CONVECTION GETS
ENTRAINED IN THE UPR RIDGE. THIS APPEARS TO BE A ROGUE SOLN ATTM
HOWEVER SO HAVE KEPT POPS BLW 15. DESPITE A DRY AIR MASS SUN-WED
WITH PW GENERALLY AOB 1 INCH...THE HUMIDITY WILL NOT BE
PARTICULARLY LOW...ESPECIALLY AS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
ARRIVES...AS PERSISTENT SLY COMPONENT FLOW DRAWS LLVL MOISTURE
INTO THE CWA FROM THE ATLC. THIS COULD SET THE STAGE FOR SOME
BOUTS OF MRNG FOG IF WINDS ARE LGT ENOUGH. TEMPS THRU THE LONG
TERM CLOSE TO THE GMOS25 AND MAINLY AOB CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL TO THE S OF THE AREA TODAY AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

LIGHT NW-N FLOW WILL GIVE WAY TO SEA BREEZES AT THE COAST DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTN. COULD BE AN ISOLATED LATE DAY
SHOWER/TSTM NEAR THE NYC METRO TERMINALS. WINDS WILL LIKELY BECOME
LIGHT AND VRB FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SEABREEZE MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS.
DIRECTION FORECAST AT 17Z MAY BE 10-20 DEGREES MORE SE TO
START...BECOMING 180-190.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SEABREEZE MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: SEABREEZE MAY PUSH THROUGH THE AIRFIELD
BETWEEN 20-22Z

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: SEABREEZE MAY PUSH THROUGH THE AIRFIELD
BETWEEN 20-22Z

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: SEABREEZE MAY PUSH THROUGH THE AIRFIELD
BETWEEN 19-22Z

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SEABREEZE MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THU NIGHT...VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS.
.FRI...VFR WITH WINDS VEERING FROM THE NE TO THE ESE. SEA BREEZES
POSSIBLE.
.FRI NIGHT-SAT...LOW PRES WILL TRACK S OF THE REGION. IF THE LOW IS
CLOSE ENOUGH...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WITH -RA. WINDS GENERALLY NE
OR E.
.SAT NIGHT-MON...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS REMAIN AT 5 FT AT BUOY 44017 AND ARE CLOSER TO 4 FT AT THE
BUOYS TO THE WEST...SO SCAHS EXTENDED TO 15Z E OF MORICHES INLET.
THESE SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE BLW 5 FT BY NOON AS FLOW TURNS MORE
OFFSHORE AFTER A COLD FROPA.

SEAS WILL GET CLOSE TO 5 FT ON THE OCEAN ON SAT AS LOW PRES PASSES
TO THE S. ELSEWHERE...NE WINDS SHOULD BE IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL THEN LIKELY REMAIN BLW SCA LVLS SUN-WED AS A
BROAD AREA OF HI PRES SETTLES IN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT PCPN NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A FULL MOON...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 3/4 TO 1 1/2 FT ARE
NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED AT THE
PEAK OF THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDES THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
MINOR BENCHMARKS COULD BRIEFLY BE TOUCHED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE
BAYS OF NASSAU COUNTY THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY
     FOR ANZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...JMC/GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...JMC/GOODMAN
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...24
MARINE...JMC/GOODMAN
HYDROLOGY...JMC/GOODMAN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KOKX 020932 CCA
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
532 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL LINGER TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD IN FROM TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL
PASS TO THE SOUTH ON INDEPENDENCE DAY. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FCST ON TRACK...BUT UPDATE ISSUED TO ACCOMMODATE MARINE CHANGES.
SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY...WITH SCT FAIR WX CU
DEVELOPING AND HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER/MID 80S...BUT UPPER 70S
ALONG MOST SOUTH- FACING SHORELINES AND IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
THESE TEMPS ARE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THOSE OF YESTERDAY AND A
TOUCH LOWER THAN THE COOLER 00Z GFS MOS GUIDANCE.

COASTAL SEA BREEZES SHOULD DEVELOP...AND WILL BE WEAKER THAN THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH TEMPS INLAND.

EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDS...THOUGH COULD SEE AN ISOLD SHOWER OR
TSTM DEVELOP LATE TODAY IN/NEAR NE NJ IN POCKET OF
INSTABILITY/BLYR MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES.

THERE IS A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK AT THE OCEAN BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP IN/NEAR NE NJ COULD DRIFT E
TOWARD NYC NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD START TO BUILD FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT
INTO FRI...WITH N-NE FLOW AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...THEN WEAK
COASTAL SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE A COOLER LOWER/MID 60S IN MOST PLACES...AND
55-60 ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS WELL NORTH/WEST OF NYC.
HIGHS ON FRI UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER
STILL...MAINLY 75-80.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE 00Z MODEL SUITE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST WEAK LOW PRES WILL TRACK
OFF THE DELMARVA AND OUT TO SEA ON THE 4TH. THIS GIVES THE CWA A
GLANCING BLOW AT BEST...AND MAY ONLY RESULT IN SOME EXTRA CLOUDS
ESPECIALLY LI INTO THE CITY AND NJ. INCLUDED SOME LOW POPS...MAINLY
SCHC...FOR MOST OF THE AREA. IT SHOULD BE NOTED HOWEVER THAT AT THIS
POINT ANY RAIN LOOKS LGT AND SPOTTY AT BEST. THEREAFTER...HI PRES
BUILDS IN AND AS A RESULT HAVE GONE WITH A FAIR FCST THRU WED.
THE ECMWF DOES HINT AT SOME RAIN TUE AS RESIDUAL CONVECTION GETS
ENTRAINED IN THE UPR RIDGE. THIS APPEARS TO BE A ROGUE SOLN ATTM
HOWEVER SO HAVE KEPT POPS BLW 15. DESPITE A DRY AIR MASS SUN-WED
WITH PW GENERALLY AOB 1 INCH...THE HUMIDITY WILL NOT BE
PARTICULARLY LOW...ESPECIALLY AS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
ARRIVES...AS PERSISTENT SLY COMPONENT FLOW DRAWS LLVL MOISTURE
INTO THE CWA FROM THE ATLC. THIS COULD SET THE STAGE FOR SOME
BOUTS OF MRNG FOG IF WINDS ARE LGT ENOUGH. TEMPS THRU THE LONG
TERM CLOSE TO THE GMOS25 AND MAINLY AOB CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL TO THE S OF THE AREA TODAY AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

LIGHT NW-N FLOW WILL GIVE WAY TO SEA BREEZES AT THE COAST DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTN. COULD BE AN ISOLATED LATE DAY
SHOWER/TSTM NEAR THE NYC METRO TERMINALS. WINDS WILL LIKELY BECOME
LIGHT AND VRB FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SEABREEZE MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS.
DIRECTION FORECAST AT 17Z MAY BE 10-20 DEGREES MORE SE TO
START...BECOMING 180-190.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SEABREEZE MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: SEABREEZE MAY PUSH THROUGH THE AIRFIELD
BETWEEN 20-22Z

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: SEABREEZE MAY PUSH THROUGH THE AIRFIELD
BETWEEN 20-22Z

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: SEABREEZE MAY PUSH THROUGH THE AIRFIELD
BETWEEN 19-22Z

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SEABREEZE MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THU NIGHT...VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS.
.FRI...VFR WITH WINDS VEERING FROM THE NE TO THE ESE. SEA BREEZES
POSSIBLE.
.FRI NIGHT-SAT...LOW PRES WILL TRACK S OF THE REGION. IF THE LOW IS
CLOSE ENOUGH...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WITH -RA. WINDS GENERALLY NE
OR E.
.SAT NIGHT-MON...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS REMAIN AT 5 FT AT BUOY 44017 AND ARE CLOSER TO 4 FT AT THE
BUOYS TO THE WEST...SO SCAHS EXTENDED TO 15Z E OF MORICHES INLET.
THESE SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE BLW 5 FT BY NOON AS FLOW TURNS MORE
OFFSHORE AFTER A COLD FROPA.

SEAS WILL GET CLOSE TO 5 FT ON THE OCEAN ON SAT AS LOW PRES PASSES
TO THE S. ELSEWHERE...NE WINDS SHOULD BE IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL THEN LIKELY REMAIN BLW SCA LVLS SUN-WED AS A
BROAD AREA OF HI PRES SETTLES IN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT PCPN NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A FULL MOON...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 3/4 TO 1 1/2 FT ARE
NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED AT THE
PEAK OF THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDES THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
MINOR BENCHMARKS COULD BRIEFLY BE TOUCHED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE
BAYS OF NASSAU COUNTY THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY
     FOR ANZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...JMC/GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...JMC/GOODMAN
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...24
MARINE...JMC/GOODMAN
HYDROLOGY...JMC/GOODMAN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KOKX 020932 CCA
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
532 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL LINGER TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD IN FROM TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL
PASS TO THE SOUTH ON INDEPENDENCE DAY. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FCST ON TRACK...BUT UPDATE ISSUED TO ACCOMMODATE MARINE CHANGES.
SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY...WITH SCT FAIR WX CU
DEVELOPING AND HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER/MID 80S...BUT UPPER 70S
ALONG MOST SOUTH- FACING SHORELINES AND IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
THESE TEMPS ARE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THOSE OF YESTERDAY AND A
TOUCH LOWER THAN THE COOLER 00Z GFS MOS GUIDANCE.

COASTAL SEA BREEZES SHOULD DEVELOP...AND WILL BE WEAKER THAN THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH TEMPS INLAND.

EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDS...THOUGH COULD SEE AN ISOLD SHOWER OR
TSTM DEVELOP LATE TODAY IN/NEAR NE NJ IN POCKET OF
INSTABILITY/BLYR MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES.

THERE IS A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK AT THE OCEAN BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP IN/NEAR NE NJ COULD DRIFT E
TOWARD NYC NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD START TO BUILD FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT
INTO FRI...WITH N-NE FLOW AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...THEN WEAK
COASTAL SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE A COOLER LOWER/MID 60S IN MOST PLACES...AND
55-60 ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS WELL NORTH/WEST OF NYC.
HIGHS ON FRI UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER
STILL...MAINLY 75-80.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE 00Z MODEL SUITE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST WEAK LOW PRES WILL TRACK
OFF THE DELMARVA AND OUT TO SEA ON THE 4TH. THIS GIVES THE CWA A
GLANCING BLOW AT BEST...AND MAY ONLY RESULT IN SOME EXTRA CLOUDS
ESPECIALLY LI INTO THE CITY AND NJ. INCLUDED SOME LOW POPS...MAINLY
SCHC...FOR MOST OF THE AREA. IT SHOULD BE NOTED HOWEVER THAT AT THIS
POINT ANY RAIN LOOKS LGT AND SPOTTY AT BEST. THEREAFTER...HI PRES
BUILDS IN AND AS A RESULT HAVE GONE WITH A FAIR FCST THRU WED.
THE ECMWF DOES HINT AT SOME RAIN TUE AS RESIDUAL CONVECTION GETS
ENTRAINED IN THE UPR RIDGE. THIS APPEARS TO BE A ROGUE SOLN ATTM
HOWEVER SO HAVE KEPT POPS BLW 15. DESPITE A DRY AIR MASS SUN-WED
WITH PW GENERALLY AOB 1 INCH...THE HUMIDITY WILL NOT BE
PARTICULARLY LOW...ESPECIALLY AS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
ARRIVES...AS PERSISTENT SLY COMPONENT FLOW DRAWS LLVL MOISTURE
INTO THE CWA FROM THE ATLC. THIS COULD SET THE STAGE FOR SOME
BOUTS OF MRNG FOG IF WINDS ARE LGT ENOUGH. TEMPS THRU THE LONG
TERM CLOSE TO THE GMOS25 AND MAINLY AOB CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL TO THE S OF THE AREA TODAY AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

LIGHT NW-N FLOW WILL GIVE WAY TO SEA BREEZES AT THE COAST DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTN. COULD BE AN ISOLATED LATE DAY
SHOWER/TSTM NEAR THE NYC METRO TERMINALS. WINDS WILL LIKELY BECOME
LIGHT AND VRB FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SEABREEZE MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS.
DIRECTION FORECAST AT 17Z MAY BE 10-20 DEGREES MORE SE TO
START...BECOMING 180-190.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SEABREEZE MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: SEABREEZE MAY PUSH THROUGH THE AIRFIELD
BETWEEN 20-22Z

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: SEABREEZE MAY PUSH THROUGH THE AIRFIELD
BETWEEN 20-22Z

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: SEABREEZE MAY PUSH THROUGH THE AIRFIELD
BETWEEN 19-22Z

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SEABREEZE MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THU NIGHT...VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS.
.FRI...VFR WITH WINDS VEERING FROM THE NE TO THE ESE. SEA BREEZES
POSSIBLE.
.FRI NIGHT-SAT...LOW PRES WILL TRACK S OF THE REGION. IF THE LOW IS
CLOSE ENOUGH...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WITH -RA. WINDS GENERALLY NE
OR E.
.SAT NIGHT-MON...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS REMAIN AT 5 FT AT BUOY 44017 AND ARE CLOSER TO 4 FT AT THE
BUOYS TO THE WEST...SO SCAHS EXTENDED TO 15Z E OF MORICHES INLET.
THESE SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE BLW 5 FT BY NOON AS FLOW TURNS MORE
OFFSHORE AFTER A COLD FROPA.

SEAS WILL GET CLOSE TO 5 FT ON THE OCEAN ON SAT AS LOW PRES PASSES
TO THE S. ELSEWHERE...NE WINDS SHOULD BE IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL THEN LIKELY REMAIN BLW SCA LVLS SUN-WED AS A
BROAD AREA OF HI PRES SETTLES IN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT PCPN NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A FULL MOON...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 3/4 TO 1 1/2 FT ARE
NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED AT THE
PEAK OF THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDES THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
MINOR BENCHMARKS COULD BRIEFLY BE TOUCHED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE
BAYS OF NASSAU COUNTY THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY
     FOR ANZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...JMC/GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...JMC/GOODMAN
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...24
MARINE...JMC/GOODMAN
HYDROLOGY...JMC/GOODMAN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KOKX 020932 CCA
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
532 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL LINGER TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD IN FROM TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL
PASS TO THE SOUTH ON INDEPENDENCE DAY. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FCST ON TRACK...BUT UPDATE ISSUED TO ACCOMMODATE MARINE CHANGES.
SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY...WITH SCT FAIR WX CU
DEVELOPING AND HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER/MID 80S...BUT UPPER 70S
ALONG MOST SOUTH- FACING SHORELINES AND IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
THESE TEMPS ARE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THOSE OF YESTERDAY AND A
TOUCH LOWER THAN THE COOLER 00Z GFS MOS GUIDANCE.

COASTAL SEA BREEZES SHOULD DEVELOP...AND WILL BE WEAKER THAN THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH TEMPS INLAND.

EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDS...THOUGH COULD SEE AN ISOLD SHOWER OR
TSTM DEVELOP LATE TODAY IN/NEAR NE NJ IN POCKET OF
INSTABILITY/BLYR MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES.

THERE IS A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK AT THE OCEAN BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP IN/NEAR NE NJ COULD DRIFT E
TOWARD NYC NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD START TO BUILD FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT
INTO FRI...WITH N-NE FLOW AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...THEN WEAK
COASTAL SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE A COOLER LOWER/MID 60S IN MOST PLACES...AND
55-60 ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS WELL NORTH/WEST OF NYC.
HIGHS ON FRI UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER
STILL...MAINLY 75-80.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE 00Z MODEL SUITE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST WEAK LOW PRES WILL TRACK
OFF THE DELMARVA AND OUT TO SEA ON THE 4TH. THIS GIVES THE CWA A
GLANCING BLOW AT BEST...AND MAY ONLY RESULT IN SOME EXTRA CLOUDS
ESPECIALLY LI INTO THE CITY AND NJ. INCLUDED SOME LOW POPS...MAINLY
SCHC...FOR MOST OF THE AREA. IT SHOULD BE NOTED HOWEVER THAT AT THIS
POINT ANY RAIN LOOKS LGT AND SPOTTY AT BEST. THEREAFTER...HI PRES
BUILDS IN AND AS A RESULT HAVE GONE WITH A FAIR FCST THRU WED.
THE ECMWF DOES HINT AT SOME RAIN TUE AS RESIDUAL CONVECTION GETS
ENTRAINED IN THE UPR RIDGE. THIS APPEARS TO BE A ROGUE SOLN ATTM
HOWEVER SO HAVE KEPT POPS BLW 15. DESPITE A DRY AIR MASS SUN-WED
WITH PW GENERALLY AOB 1 INCH...THE HUMIDITY WILL NOT BE
PARTICULARLY LOW...ESPECIALLY AS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
ARRIVES...AS PERSISTENT SLY COMPONENT FLOW DRAWS LLVL MOISTURE
INTO THE CWA FROM THE ATLC. THIS COULD SET THE STAGE FOR SOME
BOUTS OF MRNG FOG IF WINDS ARE LGT ENOUGH. TEMPS THRU THE LONG
TERM CLOSE TO THE GMOS25 AND MAINLY AOB CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL TO THE S OF THE AREA TODAY AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

LIGHT NW-N FLOW WILL GIVE WAY TO SEA BREEZES AT THE COAST DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTN. COULD BE AN ISOLATED LATE DAY
SHOWER/TSTM NEAR THE NYC METRO TERMINALS. WINDS WILL LIKELY BECOME
LIGHT AND VRB FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SEABREEZE MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS.
DIRECTION FORECAST AT 17Z MAY BE 10-20 DEGREES MORE SE TO
START...BECOMING 180-190.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SEABREEZE MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: SEABREEZE MAY PUSH THROUGH THE AIRFIELD
BETWEEN 20-22Z

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: SEABREEZE MAY PUSH THROUGH THE AIRFIELD
BETWEEN 20-22Z

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: SEABREEZE MAY PUSH THROUGH THE AIRFIELD
BETWEEN 19-22Z

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SEABREEZE MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THU NIGHT...VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS.
.FRI...VFR WITH WINDS VEERING FROM THE NE TO THE ESE. SEA BREEZES
POSSIBLE.
.FRI NIGHT-SAT...LOW PRES WILL TRACK S OF THE REGION. IF THE LOW IS
CLOSE ENOUGH...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WITH -RA. WINDS GENERALLY NE
OR E.
.SAT NIGHT-MON...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS REMAIN AT 5 FT AT BUOY 44017 AND ARE CLOSER TO 4 FT AT THE
BUOYS TO THE WEST...SO SCAHS EXTENDED TO 15Z E OF MORICHES INLET.
THESE SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE BLW 5 FT BY NOON AS FLOW TURNS MORE
OFFSHORE AFTER A COLD FROPA.

SEAS WILL GET CLOSE TO 5 FT ON THE OCEAN ON SAT AS LOW PRES PASSES
TO THE S. ELSEWHERE...NE WINDS SHOULD BE IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL THEN LIKELY REMAIN BLW SCA LVLS SUN-WED AS A
BROAD AREA OF HI PRES SETTLES IN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT PCPN NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A FULL MOON...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 3/4 TO 1 1/2 FT ARE
NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED AT THE
PEAK OF THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDES THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
MINOR BENCHMARKS COULD BRIEFLY BE TOUCHED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE
BAYS OF NASSAU COUNTY THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY
     FOR ANZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...JMC/GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...JMC/GOODMAN
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...24
MARINE...JMC/GOODMAN
HYDROLOGY...JMC/GOODMAN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KOKX 020932 CCA
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
532 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL LINGER TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD IN FROM TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL
PASS TO THE SOUTH ON INDEPENDENCE DAY. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FCST ON TRACK...BUT UPDATE ISSUED TO ACCOMMODATE MARINE CHANGES.
SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY...WITH SCT FAIR WX CU
DEVELOPING AND HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER/MID 80S...BUT UPPER 70S
ALONG MOST SOUTH- FACING SHORELINES AND IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
THESE TEMPS ARE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THOSE OF YESTERDAY AND A
TOUCH LOWER THAN THE COOLER 00Z GFS MOS GUIDANCE.

COASTAL SEA BREEZES SHOULD DEVELOP...AND WILL BE WEAKER THAN THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH TEMPS INLAND.

EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDS...THOUGH COULD SEE AN ISOLD SHOWER OR
TSTM DEVELOP LATE TODAY IN/NEAR NE NJ IN POCKET OF
INSTABILITY/BLYR MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES.

THERE IS A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK AT THE OCEAN BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP IN/NEAR NE NJ COULD DRIFT E
TOWARD NYC NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD START TO BUILD FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT
INTO FRI...WITH N-NE FLOW AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...THEN WEAK
COASTAL SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE A COOLER LOWER/MID 60S IN MOST PLACES...AND
55-60 ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS WELL NORTH/WEST OF NYC.
HIGHS ON FRI UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER
STILL...MAINLY 75-80.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE 00Z MODEL SUITE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST WEAK LOW PRES WILL TRACK
OFF THE DELMARVA AND OUT TO SEA ON THE 4TH. THIS GIVES THE CWA A
GLANCING BLOW AT BEST...AND MAY ONLY RESULT IN SOME EXTRA CLOUDS
ESPECIALLY LI INTO THE CITY AND NJ. INCLUDED SOME LOW POPS...MAINLY
SCHC...FOR MOST OF THE AREA. IT SHOULD BE NOTED HOWEVER THAT AT THIS
POINT ANY RAIN LOOKS LGT AND SPOTTY AT BEST. THEREAFTER...HI PRES
BUILDS IN AND AS A RESULT HAVE GONE WITH A FAIR FCST THRU WED.
THE ECMWF DOES HINT AT SOME RAIN TUE AS RESIDUAL CONVECTION GETS
ENTRAINED IN THE UPR RIDGE. THIS APPEARS TO BE A ROGUE SOLN ATTM
HOWEVER SO HAVE KEPT POPS BLW 15. DESPITE A DRY AIR MASS SUN-WED
WITH PW GENERALLY AOB 1 INCH...THE HUMIDITY WILL NOT BE
PARTICULARLY LOW...ESPECIALLY AS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
ARRIVES...AS PERSISTENT SLY COMPONENT FLOW DRAWS LLVL MOISTURE
INTO THE CWA FROM THE ATLC. THIS COULD SET THE STAGE FOR SOME
BOUTS OF MRNG FOG IF WINDS ARE LGT ENOUGH. TEMPS THRU THE LONG
TERM CLOSE TO THE GMOS25 AND MAINLY AOB CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL TO THE S OF THE AREA TODAY AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

LIGHT NW-N FLOW WILL GIVE WAY TO SEA BREEZES AT THE COAST DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTN. COULD BE AN ISOLATED LATE DAY
SHOWER/TSTM NEAR THE NYC METRO TERMINALS. WINDS WILL LIKELY BECOME
LIGHT AND VRB FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SEABREEZE MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS.
DIRECTION FORECAST AT 17Z MAY BE 10-20 DEGREES MORE SE TO
START...BECOMING 180-190.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SEABREEZE MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: SEABREEZE MAY PUSH THROUGH THE AIRFIELD
BETWEEN 20-22Z

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: SEABREEZE MAY PUSH THROUGH THE AIRFIELD
BETWEEN 20-22Z

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: SEABREEZE MAY PUSH THROUGH THE AIRFIELD
BETWEEN 19-22Z

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SEABREEZE MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THU NIGHT...VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS.
.FRI...VFR WITH WINDS VEERING FROM THE NE TO THE ESE. SEA BREEZES
POSSIBLE.
.FRI NIGHT-SAT...LOW PRES WILL TRACK S OF THE REGION. IF THE LOW IS
CLOSE ENOUGH...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WITH -RA. WINDS GENERALLY NE
OR E.
.SAT NIGHT-MON...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS REMAIN AT 5 FT AT BUOY 44017 AND ARE CLOSER TO 4 FT AT THE
BUOYS TO THE WEST...SO SCAHS EXTENDED TO 15Z E OF MORICHES INLET.
THESE SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE BLW 5 FT BY NOON AS FLOW TURNS MORE
OFFSHORE AFTER A COLD FROPA.

SEAS WILL GET CLOSE TO 5 FT ON THE OCEAN ON SAT AS LOW PRES PASSES
TO THE S. ELSEWHERE...NE WINDS SHOULD BE IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL THEN LIKELY REMAIN BLW SCA LVLS SUN-WED AS A
BROAD AREA OF HI PRES SETTLES IN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT PCPN NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A FULL MOON...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 3/4 TO 1 1/2 FT ARE
NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED AT THE
PEAK OF THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDES THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
MINOR BENCHMARKS COULD BRIEFLY BE TOUCHED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE
BAYS OF NASSAU COUNTY THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY
     FOR ANZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...JMC/GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...JMC/GOODMAN
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...24
MARINE...JMC/GOODMAN
HYDROLOGY...JMC/GOODMAN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KOKX 020932 CCA
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
532 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL LINGER TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD IN FROM TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL
PASS TO THE SOUTH ON INDEPENDENCE DAY. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FCST ON TRACK...BUT UPDATE ISSUED TO ACCOMMODATE MARINE CHANGES.
SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY...WITH SCT FAIR WX CU
DEVELOPING AND HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER/MID 80S...BUT UPPER 70S
ALONG MOST SOUTH- FACING SHORELINES AND IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
THESE TEMPS ARE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THOSE OF YESTERDAY AND A
TOUCH LOWER THAN THE COOLER 00Z GFS MOS GUIDANCE.

COASTAL SEA BREEZES SHOULD DEVELOP...AND WILL BE WEAKER THAN THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH TEMPS INLAND.

EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDS...THOUGH COULD SEE AN ISOLD SHOWER OR
TSTM DEVELOP LATE TODAY IN/NEAR NE NJ IN POCKET OF
INSTABILITY/BLYR MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES.

THERE IS A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK AT THE OCEAN BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP IN/NEAR NE NJ COULD DRIFT E
TOWARD NYC NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD START TO BUILD FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT
INTO FRI...WITH N-NE FLOW AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...THEN WEAK
COASTAL SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE A COOLER LOWER/MID 60S IN MOST PLACES...AND
55-60 ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS WELL NORTH/WEST OF NYC.
HIGHS ON FRI UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER
STILL...MAINLY 75-80.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE 00Z MODEL SUITE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST WEAK LOW PRES WILL TRACK
OFF THE DELMARVA AND OUT TO SEA ON THE 4TH. THIS GIVES THE CWA A
GLANCING BLOW AT BEST...AND MAY ONLY RESULT IN SOME EXTRA CLOUDS
ESPECIALLY LI INTO THE CITY AND NJ. INCLUDED SOME LOW POPS...MAINLY
SCHC...FOR MOST OF THE AREA. IT SHOULD BE NOTED HOWEVER THAT AT THIS
POINT ANY RAIN LOOKS LGT AND SPOTTY AT BEST. THEREAFTER...HI PRES
BUILDS IN AND AS A RESULT HAVE GONE WITH A FAIR FCST THRU WED.
THE ECMWF DOES HINT AT SOME RAIN TUE AS RESIDUAL CONVECTION GETS
ENTRAINED IN THE UPR RIDGE. THIS APPEARS TO BE A ROGUE SOLN ATTM
HOWEVER SO HAVE KEPT POPS BLW 15. DESPITE A DRY AIR MASS SUN-WED
WITH PW GENERALLY AOB 1 INCH...THE HUMIDITY WILL NOT BE
PARTICULARLY LOW...ESPECIALLY AS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
ARRIVES...AS PERSISTENT SLY COMPONENT FLOW DRAWS LLVL MOISTURE
INTO THE CWA FROM THE ATLC. THIS COULD SET THE STAGE FOR SOME
BOUTS OF MRNG FOG IF WINDS ARE LGT ENOUGH. TEMPS THRU THE LONG
TERM CLOSE TO THE GMOS25 AND MAINLY AOB CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL TO THE S OF THE AREA TODAY AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

LIGHT NW-N FLOW WILL GIVE WAY TO SEA BREEZES AT THE COAST DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTN. COULD BE AN ISOLATED LATE DAY
SHOWER/TSTM NEAR THE NYC METRO TERMINALS. WINDS WILL LIKELY BECOME
LIGHT AND VRB FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SEABREEZE MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS.
DIRECTION FORECAST AT 17Z MAY BE 10-20 DEGREES MORE SE TO
START...BECOMING 180-190.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SEABREEZE MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: SEABREEZE MAY PUSH THROUGH THE AIRFIELD
BETWEEN 20-22Z

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: SEABREEZE MAY PUSH THROUGH THE AIRFIELD
BETWEEN 20-22Z

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: SEABREEZE MAY PUSH THROUGH THE AIRFIELD
BETWEEN 19-22Z

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SEABREEZE MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THU NIGHT...VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS.
.FRI...VFR WITH WINDS VEERING FROM THE NE TO THE ESE. SEA BREEZES
POSSIBLE.
.FRI NIGHT-SAT...LOW PRES WILL TRACK S OF THE REGION. IF THE LOW IS
CLOSE ENOUGH...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WITH -RA. WINDS GENERALLY NE
OR E.
.SAT NIGHT-MON...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS REMAIN AT 5 FT AT BUOY 44017 AND ARE CLOSER TO 4 FT AT THE
BUOYS TO THE WEST...SO SCAHS EXTENDED TO 15Z E OF MORICHES INLET.
THESE SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE BLW 5 FT BY NOON AS FLOW TURNS MORE
OFFSHORE AFTER A COLD FROPA.

SEAS WILL GET CLOSE TO 5 FT ON THE OCEAN ON SAT AS LOW PRES PASSES
TO THE S. ELSEWHERE...NE WINDS SHOULD BE IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL THEN LIKELY REMAIN BLW SCA LVLS SUN-WED AS A
BROAD AREA OF HI PRES SETTLES IN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT PCPN NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A FULL MOON...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 3/4 TO 1 1/2 FT ARE
NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED AT THE
PEAK OF THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDES THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
MINOR BENCHMARKS COULD BRIEFLY BE TOUCHED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE
BAYS OF NASSAU COUNTY THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY
     FOR ANZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...JMC/GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...JMC/GOODMAN
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...24
MARINE...JMC/GOODMAN
HYDROLOGY...JMC/GOODMAN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KOKX 020932
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
532 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH OVERNIGHT. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH WILL LINGER ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN
FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO
THE SOUTH ON INDEPENDENCE DAY. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD IN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FCST ON TRACK...BUT UPDATE ISSUED TO ACCOMMODATE MARINE CHANGES.
SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY...WITH SCT FAIR WX CU
DEVELOPING AND HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER/MID 80S...BUT UPPER 70S
ALONG MOST SOUTH- FACING SHORELINES AND IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
THESE TEMPS ARE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THOSE OF YESTERDAY AND A
TOUCH LOWER THAN THE COOLER 00Z GFS MOS GUIDANCE.

COASTAL SEA BREEZES SHOULD DEVELOP...AND WILL BE WEAKER THAN THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH TEMPS INLAND.

EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDS...THOUGH COULD SEE AN ISOLD SHOWER OR
TSTM DEVELOP LATE TODAY IN/NEAR NE NJ IN POCKET OF
INSTABILITY/BLYR MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES.

THERE IS A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK AT THE OCEAN BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP IN/NEAR NE NJ COULD DRIFT E
TOWARD NYC NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD START TO BUILD FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT
INTO FRI...WITH N-NE FLOW AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...THEN WEAK
COASTAL SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE A COOLER LOWER/MID 60S IN MOST PLACES...AND
55-60 ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS WELL NORTH/WEST OF NYC.
HIGHS ON FRI UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER
STILL...MAINLY 75-80.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE 00Z MODEL SUITE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST WEAK LOW PRES WILL TRACK
OFF THE DELMARVA AND OUT TO SEA ON THE 4TH. THIS GIVES THE CWA A
GLANCING BLOW AT BEST...AND MAY ONLY RESULT IN SOME EXTRA CLOUDS
ESPECIALLY LI INTO THE CITY AND NJ. INCLUDED SOME LOW POPS...MAINLY
SCHC...FOR MOST OF THE AREA. IT SHOULD BE NOTED HOWEVER THAT AT THIS
POINT ANY RAIN LOOKS LGT AND SPOTTY AT BEST. THEREAFTER...HI PRES
BUILDS IN AND AS A RESULT HAVE GONE WITH A FAIR FCST THRU WED.
THE ECMWF DOES HINT AT SOME RAIN TUE AS RESIDUAL CONVECTION GETS
ENTRAINED IN THE UPR RIDGE. THIS APPEARS TO BE A ROGUE SOLN ATTM
HOWEVER SO HAVE KEPT POPS BLW 15. DESPITE A DRY AIR MASS SUN-WED
WITH PW GENERALLY AOB 1 INCH...THE HUMIDITY WILL NOT BE
PARTICULARLY LOW...ESPECIALLY AS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
ARRIVES...AS PERSISTENT SLY COMPONENT FLOW DRAWS LLVL MOISTURE
INTO THE CWA FROM THE ATLC. THIS COULD SET THE STAGE FOR SOME
BOUTS OF MRNG FOG IF WINDS ARE LGT ENOUGH. TEMPS THRU THE LONG
TERM CLOSE TO THE GMOS25 AND MAINLY AOB CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL TO THE S OF THE AREA TODAY AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

LIGHT NW-N FLOW WILL GIVE WAY TO SEA BREEZES AT THE COAST DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTN. COULD BE AN ISOLATED LATE DAY
SHOWER/TSTM NEAR THE NYC METRO TERMINALS. WINDS WILL LIKELY BECOME
LIGHT AND VRB FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SEABREEZE MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS.
DIRECTION FORECAST AT 17Z MAY BE 10-20 DEGREES MORE SE TO
START...BECOMING 180-190.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SEABREEZE MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: SEABREEZE MAY PUSH THROUGH THE AIRFIELD
BETWEEN 20-22Z

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: SEABREEZE MAY PUSH THROUGH THE AIRFIELD
BETWEEN 20-22Z

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: SEABREEZE MAY PUSH THROUGH THE AIRFIELD
BETWEEN 19-22Z

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SEABREEZE MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THU NIGHT...VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS.
.FRI...VFR WITH WINDS VEERING FROM THE NE TO THE ESE. SEA BREEZES
POSSIBLE.
.FRI NIGHT-SAT...LOW PRES WILL TRACK S OF THE REGION. IF THE LOW IS
CLOSE ENOUGH...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WITH -RA. WINDS GENERALLY NE
OR E.
.SAT NIGHT-MON...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS REMAIN AT 5 FT AT BUOY 44017 AND ARE CLOSER TO 4 FT AT THE
BUOYS TO THE WEST...SO SCAHS EXTENDED TO 15Z E OF MORICHES INLET.
THESE SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE BLW 5 FT BY NOON AS FLOW TURNS MORE
OFFSHORE AFTER A COLD FROPA.

SEAS WILL GET CLOSE TO 5 FT ON THE OCEAN ON SAT AS LOW PRES PASSES
TO THE S. ELSEWHERE...NE WINDS SHOULD BE IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL THEN LIKELY REMAIN BLW SCA LVLS SUN-WED AS A
BROAD AREA OF HI PRES SETTLES IN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT PCPN NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A FULL MOON...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 3/4 TO 1 1/2 FT ARE
NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED AT THE
PEAK OF THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDES THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
MINOR BENCHMARKS COULD BRIEFLY BE TOUCHED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE
BAYS OF NASSAU COUNTY THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY
     FOR ANZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...JMC/GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...JMC/GOODMAN
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...24
MARINE...JMC/GOODMAN
HYDROLOGY...JMC/GOODMAN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KALY 020857
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
457 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT
LAKES THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD BRING GENERALLY DRY WEATHER ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND 5 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COULD BRING AN
AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ON SATURDAY TO A FEW AREAS MAINLY
NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER WITH
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT...PATCHY LOW CLOUDS PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE BERKSHIRES/SOUTHERN GREENS...AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. MEANWHILE...PATCHY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE INCREASING
ACROSS WESTERN NYS...AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE.

THE HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE REGION FOR A
PERIOD THIS MORNING. THEY SHOULD THEN SETTLE SOUTHWARD THIS
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH POSSIBLY SLOWING DOWN A BIT. IN
ADDITION...WITH A COLD POOL ALOFT APPROACHING/PASSING THROUGH
LATER THIS MORNING INTO MID AFTERNOON...ADDITIONAL SHALLOW
CONVECTIVE CLOUDS SHOULD DEVELOP. SO...SKIES WILL MOST LIKELY VARY
BETWEEN PARTLY SUNNY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR A BIT THIS MORNING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...TRENDING TO MOSTLY SUNNY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON FOR AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90.

FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-90...LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE WITH
THE APPROACH/PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD POOL. SEVERAL
MESOSCALE MODELS SUCH AS THE LOCAL WRF...HRRR...AND SEVERAL SREF
MEMBERS SUGGEST ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES DEVELOPING
LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...FOR AREAS MAINLY
SOUTH OF THE GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT...ESP FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
HAVE INDICATED SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR THESE AREAS DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES. THESE CONVECTIVE
CLOUDS/SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN QUITE SHALLOW...AS A STRONG MID LEVEL CAP
SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE LIMITING POTENTIAL VERTICAL EXTENT...AND
ICE FORMATION...THEREFORE NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDER AT THIS TIME.

AS FOR MAX TEMPS...HAVE SIDED WITH...OR EVEN WENT A BIT BELOW THE
COOLER MAV MOS FOR MOST AREAS...ESP NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...AS
COOLER AIR BELOW H925 ADVECTS SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE DAY IN
THE WAKE OF A WEAK SFC TROUGH. THEREFORE...EXPECT MID/UPPER 70S
FOR MOST VALLEYS FROM ALBANY NORTH AND WEST...TO AROUND OR JUST
OVER 80 TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. HIGHER ELEVATIONS SHOULD REACH THE
MID 60S TO NEAR 70 ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
VT...AND GENERALLY LOWER TO MID 70S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY...EXCEPT FOR OCCASIONAL
HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS ON FRIDAY...AS A
WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION. TEMPS
SHOULD BE QUITE COOL TONIGHT...WITH UPPER 40S TO MID 50S FAIRLY
COMMON...AND EVEN SOME LOWER/MID 40S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN VT. FRI
MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH 75-80 IN VALLEYS...AND MAINLY 70-75 ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS MAY ONLY REACH THE
MID/UPPER 60S. FRI NT/SAT AM MINS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH STILL COOL FOR EARLY JULY...WITH UPPER 40S TO
MID 50S IN MOST AREAS.

SAT-SAT NT...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING A PAIR OF UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES AND THEIR POTENTIAL INTERACTION WITH SOME LOW/MID
LEVEL MOISTURE LURKING TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE REGION. ONE
IMPULSE SHOULD PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION IN THE MORNING...WITH
ANOTHER...SLIGHTLY STRONGER IMPULSE APPROACHING FROM THE THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE DAY OR SAT NT. THE FIRST IMPULSE
COULD BRING SOME CLOUDS TO SOUTHERN AREAS IN THE MORNING. AT THIS
TIME...HAVE NOT INDICATED ANY PRECIP...BUT TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED...AS SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS COULD OCCUR IN THE MORNING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT IF
THIS IMPULSE TRACKS A BIT FURTHER NORTH. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE A BIT MORE PROBABLE WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE SECOND IMPULSE...ALTHOUGH THE TIMING WOULD FAVOR
MAINLY WESTERN AREAS WITH SOME LOW CHANCES FOR A LATE DAY/EVENING
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM...SUCH AS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS/SCHOHARIE
VALLEY/MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS. HAVE INDICATED
SLIGHT CHC/LOW CHC POPS FOR THESE AREAS LATE IN THE DAY INTO EARLY
SAT NT...WHILE KEEPING AREAS E OF THE HUDSON RIVER DRY FOR NOW.
OVERALL AREAL COVERAGE SHOULD NOT BE VERY WIDESPREAD EVEN IF THEY
DO REACH THESE AREAS. OTHERWISE...MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER
80S IN VALLEYS AND 70S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH SAT NT/SUN
AM MINS FALLING INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO START OFF DRY AS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY MORNING AND
SETTLES ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. THERE SHOULD BE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL BOTH DAYS. EXPECT HIGHS ON BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY TO BE IN
THE MID 70S TO MID 80S WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S AND MONDAY
NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

A RETURN TO UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS FIRST A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE FA ON TUESDAY
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY FOR SUNDAY. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE 70S TO LOWER
80S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ENDING
AT 06Z FRIDAY AS A RESULT CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AND
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT. WITH THE GROUND WET/DAMP IN MANY LOCATIONS
SOME MVFR FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM. ANY LINGERING FOG WILL BURN OFF
AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL TODAY. WESTERLY WINDS OF LESS
THAN 10 KTS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT
KGFL. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OCCURRED TUE-WED. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY
LIGHT TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY AS A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AFTER THE WIDESPREAD 1-2 INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER THE PAST TWO
DAYS...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
SATURDAY...OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN SUNDAY
THROUGH LATE MONDAY. RIVER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FALL
THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD...AFTER SOME INITIAL CRESTS TODAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/HWJIV/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...IAA/11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/KL




000
FXUS61 KALY 020857
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
457 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT
LAKES THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD BRING GENERALLY DRY WEATHER ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND 5 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COULD BRING AN
AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ON SATURDAY TO A FEW AREAS MAINLY
NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER WITH
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT...PATCHY LOW CLOUDS PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE BERKSHIRES/SOUTHERN GREENS...AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. MEANWHILE...PATCHY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE INCREASING
ACROSS WESTERN NYS...AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE.

THE HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE REGION FOR A
PERIOD THIS MORNING. THEY SHOULD THEN SETTLE SOUTHWARD THIS
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH POSSIBLY SLOWING DOWN A BIT. IN
ADDITION...WITH A COLD POOL ALOFT APPROACHING/PASSING THROUGH
LATER THIS MORNING INTO MID AFTERNOON...ADDITIONAL SHALLOW
CONVECTIVE CLOUDS SHOULD DEVELOP. SO...SKIES WILL MOST LIKELY VARY
BETWEEN PARTLY SUNNY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR A BIT THIS MORNING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...TRENDING TO MOSTLY SUNNY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON FOR AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90.

FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-90...LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE WITH
THE APPROACH/PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD POOL. SEVERAL
MESOSCALE MODELS SUCH AS THE LOCAL WRF...HRRR...AND SEVERAL SREF
MEMBERS SUGGEST ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES DEVELOPING
LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...FOR AREAS MAINLY
SOUTH OF THE GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT...ESP FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
HAVE INDICATED SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR THESE AREAS DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES. THESE CONVECTIVE
CLOUDS/SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN QUITE SHALLOW...AS A STRONG MID LEVEL CAP
SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE LIMITING POTENTIAL VERTICAL EXTENT...AND
ICE FORMATION...THEREFORE NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDER AT THIS TIME.

AS FOR MAX TEMPS...HAVE SIDED WITH...OR EVEN WENT A BIT BELOW THE
COOLER MAV MOS FOR MOST AREAS...ESP NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...AS
COOLER AIR BELOW H925 ADVECTS SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE DAY IN
THE WAKE OF A WEAK SFC TROUGH. THEREFORE...EXPECT MID/UPPER 70S
FOR MOST VALLEYS FROM ALBANY NORTH AND WEST...TO AROUND OR JUST
OVER 80 TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. HIGHER ELEVATIONS SHOULD REACH THE
MID 60S TO NEAR 70 ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
VT...AND GENERALLY LOWER TO MID 70S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY...EXCEPT FOR OCCASIONAL
HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS ON FRIDAY...AS A
WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION. TEMPS
SHOULD BE QUITE COOL TONIGHT...WITH UPPER 40S TO MID 50S FAIRLY
COMMON...AND EVEN SOME LOWER/MID 40S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN VT. FRI
MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH 75-80 IN VALLEYS...AND MAINLY 70-75 ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS MAY ONLY REACH THE
MID/UPPER 60S. FRI NT/SAT AM MINS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH STILL COOL FOR EARLY JULY...WITH UPPER 40S TO
MID 50S IN MOST AREAS.

SAT-SAT NT...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING A PAIR OF UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES AND THEIR POTENTIAL INTERACTION WITH SOME LOW/MID
LEVEL MOISTURE LURKING TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE REGION. ONE
IMPULSE SHOULD PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION IN THE MORNING...WITH
ANOTHER...SLIGHTLY STRONGER IMPULSE APPROACHING FROM THE THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE DAY OR SAT NT. THE FIRST IMPULSE
COULD BRING SOME CLOUDS TO SOUTHERN AREAS IN THE MORNING. AT THIS
TIME...HAVE NOT INDICATED ANY PRECIP...BUT TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED...AS SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS COULD OCCUR IN THE MORNING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT IF
THIS IMPULSE TRACKS A BIT FURTHER NORTH. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE A BIT MORE PROBABLE WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE SECOND IMPULSE...ALTHOUGH THE TIMING WOULD FAVOR
MAINLY WESTERN AREAS WITH SOME LOW CHANCES FOR A LATE DAY/EVENING
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM...SUCH AS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS/SCHOHARIE
VALLEY/MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS. HAVE INDICATED
SLIGHT CHC/LOW CHC POPS FOR THESE AREAS LATE IN THE DAY INTO EARLY
SAT NT...WHILE KEEPING AREAS E OF THE HUDSON RIVER DRY FOR NOW.
OVERALL AREAL COVERAGE SHOULD NOT BE VERY WIDESPREAD EVEN IF THEY
DO REACH THESE AREAS. OTHERWISE...MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER
80S IN VALLEYS AND 70S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH SAT NT/SUN
AM MINS FALLING INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO START OFF DRY AS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY MORNING AND
SETTLES ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. THERE SHOULD BE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL BOTH DAYS. EXPECT HIGHS ON BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY TO BE IN
THE MID 70S TO MID 80S WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S AND MONDAY
NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

A RETURN TO UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS FIRST A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE FA ON TUESDAY
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY FOR SUNDAY. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE 70S TO LOWER
80S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ENDING
AT 06Z FRIDAY AS A RESULT CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AND
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT. WITH THE GROUND WET/DAMP IN MANY LOCATIONS
SOME MVFR FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM. ANY LINGERING FOG WILL BURN OFF
AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL TODAY. WESTERLY WINDS OF LESS
THAN 10 KTS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT
KGFL. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OCCURRED TUE-WED. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY
LIGHT TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY AS A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AFTER THE WIDESPREAD 1-2 INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER THE PAST TWO
DAYS...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
SATURDAY...OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN SUNDAY
THROUGH LATE MONDAY. RIVER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FALL
THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD...AFTER SOME INITIAL CRESTS TODAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/HWJIV/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...IAA/11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/KL



000
FXUS61 KALY 020857
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
457 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT
LAKES THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD BRING GENERALLY DRY WEATHER ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND 5 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COULD BRING AN
AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ON SATURDAY TO A FEW AREAS MAINLY
NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER WITH
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT...PATCHY LOW CLOUDS PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE BERKSHIRES/SOUTHERN GREENS...AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. MEANWHILE...PATCHY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE INCREASING
ACROSS WESTERN NYS...AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE.

THE HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE REGION FOR A
PERIOD THIS MORNING. THEY SHOULD THEN SETTLE SOUTHWARD THIS
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH POSSIBLY SLOWING DOWN A BIT. IN
ADDITION...WITH A COLD POOL ALOFT APPROACHING/PASSING THROUGH
LATER THIS MORNING INTO MID AFTERNOON...ADDITIONAL SHALLOW
CONVECTIVE CLOUDS SHOULD DEVELOP. SO...SKIES WILL MOST LIKELY VARY
BETWEEN PARTLY SUNNY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR A BIT THIS MORNING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...TRENDING TO MOSTLY SUNNY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON FOR AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90.

FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-90...LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE WITH
THE APPROACH/PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD POOL. SEVERAL
MESOSCALE MODELS SUCH AS THE LOCAL WRF...HRRR...AND SEVERAL SREF
MEMBERS SUGGEST ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES DEVELOPING
LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...FOR AREAS MAINLY
SOUTH OF THE GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT...ESP FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
HAVE INDICATED SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR THESE AREAS DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES. THESE CONVECTIVE
CLOUDS/SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN QUITE SHALLOW...AS A STRONG MID LEVEL CAP
SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE LIMITING POTENTIAL VERTICAL EXTENT...AND
ICE FORMATION...THEREFORE NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDER AT THIS TIME.

AS FOR MAX TEMPS...HAVE SIDED WITH...OR EVEN WENT A BIT BELOW THE
COOLER MAV MOS FOR MOST AREAS...ESP NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...AS
COOLER AIR BELOW H925 ADVECTS SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE DAY IN
THE WAKE OF A WEAK SFC TROUGH. THEREFORE...EXPECT MID/UPPER 70S
FOR MOST VALLEYS FROM ALBANY NORTH AND WEST...TO AROUND OR JUST
OVER 80 TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. HIGHER ELEVATIONS SHOULD REACH THE
MID 60S TO NEAR 70 ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
VT...AND GENERALLY LOWER TO MID 70S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY...EXCEPT FOR OCCASIONAL
HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS ON FRIDAY...AS A
WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION. TEMPS
SHOULD BE QUITE COOL TONIGHT...WITH UPPER 40S TO MID 50S FAIRLY
COMMON...AND EVEN SOME LOWER/MID 40S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN VT. FRI
MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH 75-80 IN VALLEYS...AND MAINLY 70-75 ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS MAY ONLY REACH THE
MID/UPPER 60S. FRI NT/SAT AM MINS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH STILL COOL FOR EARLY JULY...WITH UPPER 40S TO
MID 50S IN MOST AREAS.

SAT-SAT NT...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING A PAIR OF UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES AND THEIR POTENTIAL INTERACTION WITH SOME LOW/MID
LEVEL MOISTURE LURKING TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE REGION. ONE
IMPULSE SHOULD PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION IN THE MORNING...WITH
ANOTHER...SLIGHTLY STRONGER IMPULSE APPROACHING FROM THE THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE DAY OR SAT NT. THE FIRST IMPULSE
COULD BRING SOME CLOUDS TO SOUTHERN AREAS IN THE MORNING. AT THIS
TIME...HAVE NOT INDICATED ANY PRECIP...BUT TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED...AS SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS COULD OCCUR IN THE MORNING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT IF
THIS IMPULSE TRACKS A BIT FURTHER NORTH. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE A BIT MORE PROBABLE WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE SECOND IMPULSE...ALTHOUGH THE TIMING WOULD FAVOR
MAINLY WESTERN AREAS WITH SOME LOW CHANCES FOR A LATE DAY/EVENING
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM...SUCH AS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS/SCHOHARIE
VALLEY/MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS. HAVE INDICATED
SLIGHT CHC/LOW CHC POPS FOR THESE AREAS LATE IN THE DAY INTO EARLY
SAT NT...WHILE KEEPING AREAS E OF THE HUDSON RIVER DRY FOR NOW.
OVERALL AREAL COVERAGE SHOULD NOT BE VERY WIDESPREAD EVEN IF THEY
DO REACH THESE AREAS. OTHERWISE...MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER
80S IN VALLEYS AND 70S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH SAT NT/SUN
AM MINS FALLING INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO START OFF DRY AS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY MORNING AND
SETTLES ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. THERE SHOULD BE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL BOTH DAYS. EXPECT HIGHS ON BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY TO BE IN
THE MID 70S TO MID 80S WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S AND MONDAY
NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

A RETURN TO UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS FIRST A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE FA ON TUESDAY
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY FOR SUNDAY. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE 70S TO LOWER
80S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ENDING
AT 06Z FRIDAY AS A RESULT CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AND
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT. WITH THE GROUND WET/DAMP IN MANY LOCATIONS
SOME MVFR FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM. ANY LINGERING FOG WILL BURN OFF
AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL TODAY. WESTERLY WINDS OF LESS
THAN 10 KTS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT
KGFL. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OCCURRED TUE-WED. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY
LIGHT TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY AS A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AFTER THE WIDESPREAD 1-2 INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER THE PAST TWO
DAYS...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
SATURDAY...OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN SUNDAY
THROUGH LATE MONDAY. RIVER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FALL
THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD...AFTER SOME INITIAL CRESTS TODAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/HWJIV/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...IAA/11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/KL




000
FXUS61 KALY 020857
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
457 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT
LAKES THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD BRING GENERALLY DRY WEATHER ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND 5 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COULD BRING AN
AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ON SATURDAY TO A FEW AREAS MAINLY
NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER WITH
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT...PATCHY LOW CLOUDS PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE BERKSHIRES/SOUTHERN GREENS...AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. MEANWHILE...PATCHY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE INCREASING
ACROSS WESTERN NYS...AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE.

THE HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE REGION FOR A
PERIOD THIS MORNING. THEY SHOULD THEN SETTLE SOUTHWARD THIS
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH POSSIBLY SLOWING DOWN A BIT. IN
ADDITION...WITH A COLD POOL ALOFT APPROACHING/PASSING THROUGH
LATER THIS MORNING INTO MID AFTERNOON...ADDITIONAL SHALLOW
CONVECTIVE CLOUDS SHOULD DEVELOP. SO...SKIES WILL MOST LIKELY VARY
BETWEEN PARTLY SUNNY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR A BIT THIS MORNING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...TRENDING TO MOSTLY SUNNY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON FOR AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90.

FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-90...LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE WITH
THE APPROACH/PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD POOL. SEVERAL
MESOSCALE MODELS SUCH AS THE LOCAL WRF...HRRR...AND SEVERAL SREF
MEMBERS SUGGEST ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES DEVELOPING
LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...FOR AREAS MAINLY
SOUTH OF THE GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT...ESP FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
HAVE INDICATED SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR THESE AREAS DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES. THESE CONVECTIVE
CLOUDS/SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN QUITE SHALLOW...AS A STRONG MID LEVEL CAP
SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE LIMITING POTENTIAL VERTICAL EXTENT...AND
ICE FORMATION...THEREFORE NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDER AT THIS TIME.

AS FOR MAX TEMPS...HAVE SIDED WITH...OR EVEN WENT A BIT BELOW THE
COOLER MAV MOS FOR MOST AREAS...ESP NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...AS
COOLER AIR BELOW H925 ADVECTS SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE DAY IN
THE WAKE OF A WEAK SFC TROUGH. THEREFORE...EXPECT MID/UPPER 70S
FOR MOST VALLEYS FROM ALBANY NORTH AND WEST...TO AROUND OR JUST
OVER 80 TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. HIGHER ELEVATIONS SHOULD REACH THE
MID 60S TO NEAR 70 ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
VT...AND GENERALLY LOWER TO MID 70S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY...EXCEPT FOR OCCASIONAL
HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS ON FRIDAY...AS A
WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION. TEMPS
SHOULD BE QUITE COOL TONIGHT...WITH UPPER 40S TO MID 50S FAIRLY
COMMON...AND EVEN SOME LOWER/MID 40S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN VT. FRI
MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH 75-80 IN VALLEYS...AND MAINLY 70-75 ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS MAY ONLY REACH THE
MID/UPPER 60S. FRI NT/SAT AM MINS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH STILL COOL FOR EARLY JULY...WITH UPPER 40S TO
MID 50S IN MOST AREAS.

SAT-SAT NT...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING A PAIR OF UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES AND THEIR POTENTIAL INTERACTION WITH SOME LOW/MID
LEVEL MOISTURE LURKING TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE REGION. ONE
IMPULSE SHOULD PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION IN THE MORNING...WITH
ANOTHER...SLIGHTLY STRONGER IMPULSE APPROACHING FROM THE THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE DAY OR SAT NT. THE FIRST IMPULSE
COULD BRING SOME CLOUDS TO SOUTHERN AREAS IN THE MORNING. AT THIS
TIME...HAVE NOT INDICATED ANY PRECIP...BUT TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED...AS SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS COULD OCCUR IN THE MORNING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT IF
THIS IMPULSE TRACKS A BIT FURTHER NORTH. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE A BIT MORE PROBABLE WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE SECOND IMPULSE...ALTHOUGH THE TIMING WOULD FAVOR
MAINLY WESTERN AREAS WITH SOME LOW CHANCES FOR A LATE DAY/EVENING
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM...SUCH AS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS/SCHOHARIE
VALLEY/MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS. HAVE INDICATED
SLIGHT CHC/LOW CHC POPS FOR THESE AREAS LATE IN THE DAY INTO EARLY
SAT NT...WHILE KEEPING AREAS E OF THE HUDSON RIVER DRY FOR NOW.
OVERALL AREAL COVERAGE SHOULD NOT BE VERY WIDESPREAD EVEN IF THEY
DO REACH THESE AREAS. OTHERWISE...MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER
80S IN VALLEYS AND 70S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH SAT NT/SUN
AM MINS FALLING INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO START OFF DRY AS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY MORNING AND
SETTLES ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. THERE SHOULD BE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL BOTH DAYS. EXPECT HIGHS ON BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY TO BE IN
THE MID 70S TO MID 80S WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S AND MONDAY
NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

A RETURN TO UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS FIRST A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE FA ON TUESDAY
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY FOR SUNDAY. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE 70S TO LOWER
80S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ENDING
AT 06Z FRIDAY AS A RESULT CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AND
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT. WITH THE GROUND WET/DAMP IN MANY LOCATIONS
SOME MVFR FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM. ANY LINGERING FOG WILL BURN OFF
AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL TODAY. WESTERLY WINDS OF LESS
THAN 10 KTS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT
KGFL. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OCCURRED TUE-WED. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY
LIGHT TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY AS A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AFTER THE WIDESPREAD 1-2 INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER THE PAST TWO
DAYS...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
SATURDAY...OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN SUNDAY
THROUGH LATE MONDAY. RIVER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FALL
THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD...AFTER SOME INITIAL CRESTS TODAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/HWJIV/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...IAA/11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/KL




000
FXUS61 KALY 020857
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
457 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT
LAKES THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD BRING GENERALLY DRY WEATHER ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND 5 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COULD BRING AN
AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ON SATURDAY TO A FEW AREAS MAINLY
NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER WITH
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT...PATCHY LOW CLOUDS PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE BERKSHIRES/SOUTHERN GREENS...AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. MEANWHILE...PATCHY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE INCREASING
ACROSS WESTERN NYS...AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE.

THE HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE REGION FOR A
PERIOD THIS MORNING. THEY SHOULD THEN SETTLE SOUTHWARD THIS
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH POSSIBLY SLOWING DOWN A BIT. IN
ADDITION...WITH A COLD POOL ALOFT APPROACHING/PASSING THROUGH
LATER THIS MORNING INTO MID AFTERNOON...ADDITIONAL SHALLOW
CONVECTIVE CLOUDS SHOULD DEVELOP. SO...SKIES WILL MOST LIKELY VARY
BETWEEN PARTLY SUNNY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR A BIT THIS MORNING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...TRENDING TO MOSTLY SUNNY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON FOR AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90.

FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-90...LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE WITH
THE APPROACH/PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD POOL. SEVERAL
MESOSCALE MODELS SUCH AS THE LOCAL WRF...HRRR...AND SEVERAL SREF
MEMBERS SUGGEST ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES DEVELOPING
LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...FOR AREAS MAINLY
SOUTH OF THE GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT...ESP FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
HAVE INDICATED SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR THESE AREAS DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES. THESE CONVECTIVE
CLOUDS/SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN QUITE SHALLOW...AS A STRONG MID LEVEL CAP
SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE LIMITING POTENTIAL VERTICAL EXTENT...AND
ICE FORMATION...THEREFORE NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDER AT THIS TIME.

AS FOR MAX TEMPS...HAVE SIDED WITH...OR EVEN WENT A BIT BELOW THE
COOLER MAV MOS FOR MOST AREAS...ESP NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...AS
COOLER AIR BELOW H925 ADVECTS SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE DAY IN
THE WAKE OF A WEAK SFC TROUGH. THEREFORE...EXPECT MID/UPPER 70S
FOR MOST VALLEYS FROM ALBANY NORTH AND WEST...TO AROUND OR JUST
OVER 80 TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. HIGHER ELEVATIONS SHOULD REACH THE
MID 60S TO NEAR 70 ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
VT...AND GENERALLY LOWER TO MID 70S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY...EXCEPT FOR OCCASIONAL
HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS ON FRIDAY...AS A
WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION. TEMPS
SHOULD BE QUITE COOL TONIGHT...WITH UPPER 40S TO MID 50S FAIRLY
COMMON...AND EVEN SOME LOWER/MID 40S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN VT. FRI
MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH 75-80 IN VALLEYS...AND MAINLY 70-75 ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS MAY ONLY REACH THE
MID/UPPER 60S. FRI NT/SAT AM MINS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH STILL COOL FOR EARLY JULY...WITH UPPER 40S TO
MID 50S IN MOST AREAS.

SAT-SAT NT...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING A PAIR OF UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES AND THEIR POTENTIAL INTERACTION WITH SOME LOW/MID
LEVEL MOISTURE LURKING TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE REGION. ONE
IMPULSE SHOULD PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION IN THE MORNING...WITH
ANOTHER...SLIGHTLY STRONGER IMPULSE APPROACHING FROM THE THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE DAY OR SAT NT. THE FIRST IMPULSE
COULD BRING SOME CLOUDS TO SOUTHERN AREAS IN THE MORNING. AT THIS
TIME...HAVE NOT INDICATED ANY PRECIP...BUT TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED...AS SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS COULD OCCUR IN THE MORNING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT IF
THIS IMPULSE TRACKS A BIT FURTHER NORTH. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE A BIT MORE PROBABLE WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE SECOND IMPULSE...ALTHOUGH THE TIMING WOULD FAVOR
MAINLY WESTERN AREAS WITH SOME LOW CHANCES FOR A LATE DAY/EVENING
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM...SUCH AS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS/SCHOHARIE
VALLEY/MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS. HAVE INDICATED
SLIGHT CHC/LOW CHC POPS FOR THESE AREAS LATE IN THE DAY INTO EARLY
SAT NT...WHILE KEEPING AREAS E OF THE HUDSON RIVER DRY FOR NOW.
OVERALL AREAL COVERAGE SHOULD NOT BE VERY WIDESPREAD EVEN IF THEY
DO REACH THESE AREAS. OTHERWISE...MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER
80S IN VALLEYS AND 70S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH SAT NT/SUN
AM MINS FALLING INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO START OFF DRY AS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY MORNING AND
SETTLES ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. THERE SHOULD BE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL BOTH DAYS. EXPECT HIGHS ON BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY TO BE IN
THE MID 70S TO MID 80S WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S AND MONDAY
NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

A RETURN TO UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS FIRST A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE FA ON TUESDAY
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY FOR SUNDAY. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE 70S TO LOWER
80S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ENDING
AT 06Z FRIDAY AS A RESULT CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AND
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT. WITH THE GROUND WET/DAMP IN MANY LOCATIONS
SOME MVFR FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM. ANY LINGERING FOG WILL BURN OFF
AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL TODAY. WESTERLY WINDS OF LESS
THAN 10 KTS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT
KGFL. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OCCURRED TUE-WED. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY
LIGHT TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY AS A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AFTER THE WIDESPREAD 1-2 INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER THE PAST TWO
DAYS...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
SATURDAY...OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN SUNDAY
THROUGH LATE MONDAY. RIVER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FALL
THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD...AFTER SOME INITIAL CRESTS TODAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/HWJIV/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...IAA/11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/KL




000
FXUS61 KALY 020857
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
457 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT
LAKES THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD BRING GENERALLY DRY WEATHER ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND 5 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COULD BRING AN
AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ON SATURDAY TO A FEW AREAS MAINLY
NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER WITH
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT...PATCHY LOW CLOUDS PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE BERKSHIRES/SOUTHERN GREENS...AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. MEANWHILE...PATCHY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE INCREASING
ACROSS WESTERN NYS...AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE.

THE HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE REGION FOR A
PERIOD THIS MORNING. THEY SHOULD THEN SETTLE SOUTHWARD THIS
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH POSSIBLY SLOWING DOWN A BIT. IN
ADDITION...WITH A COLD POOL ALOFT APPROACHING/PASSING THROUGH
LATER THIS MORNING INTO MID AFTERNOON...ADDITIONAL SHALLOW
CONVECTIVE CLOUDS SHOULD DEVELOP. SO...SKIES WILL MOST LIKELY VARY
BETWEEN PARTLY SUNNY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR A BIT THIS MORNING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...TRENDING TO MOSTLY SUNNY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON FOR AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90.

FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-90...LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE WITH
THE APPROACH/PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD POOL. SEVERAL
MESOSCALE MODELS SUCH AS THE LOCAL WRF...HRRR...AND SEVERAL SREF
MEMBERS SUGGEST ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES DEVELOPING
LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...FOR AREAS MAINLY
SOUTH OF THE GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT...ESP FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
HAVE INDICATED SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR THESE AREAS DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES. THESE CONVECTIVE
CLOUDS/SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN QUITE SHALLOW...AS A STRONG MID LEVEL CAP
SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE LIMITING POTENTIAL VERTICAL EXTENT...AND
ICE FORMATION...THEREFORE NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDER AT THIS TIME.

AS FOR MAX TEMPS...HAVE SIDED WITH...OR EVEN WENT A BIT BELOW THE
COOLER MAV MOS FOR MOST AREAS...ESP NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...AS
COOLER AIR BELOW H925 ADVECTS SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE DAY IN
THE WAKE OF A WEAK SFC TROUGH. THEREFORE...EXPECT MID/UPPER 70S
FOR MOST VALLEYS FROM ALBANY NORTH AND WEST...TO AROUND OR JUST
OVER 80 TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. HIGHER ELEVATIONS SHOULD REACH THE
MID 60S TO NEAR 70 ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
VT...AND GENERALLY LOWER TO MID 70S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY...EXCEPT FOR OCCASIONAL
HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS ON FRIDAY...AS A
WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION. TEMPS
SHOULD BE QUITE COOL TONIGHT...WITH UPPER 40S TO MID 50S FAIRLY
COMMON...AND EVEN SOME LOWER/MID 40S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN VT. FRI
MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH 75-80 IN VALLEYS...AND MAINLY 70-75 ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS MAY ONLY REACH THE
MID/UPPER 60S. FRI NT/SAT AM MINS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH STILL COOL FOR EARLY JULY...WITH UPPER 40S TO
MID 50S IN MOST AREAS.

SAT-SAT NT...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING A PAIR OF UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES AND THEIR POTENTIAL INTERACTION WITH SOME LOW/MID
LEVEL MOISTURE LURKING TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE REGION. ONE
IMPULSE SHOULD PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION IN THE MORNING...WITH
ANOTHER...SLIGHTLY STRONGER IMPULSE APPROACHING FROM THE THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE DAY OR SAT NT. THE FIRST IMPULSE
COULD BRING SOME CLOUDS TO SOUTHERN AREAS IN THE MORNING. AT THIS
TIME...HAVE NOT INDICATED ANY PRECIP...BUT TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED...AS SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS COULD OCCUR IN THE MORNING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT IF
THIS IMPULSE TRACKS A BIT FURTHER NORTH. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE A BIT MORE PROBABLE WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE SECOND IMPULSE...ALTHOUGH THE TIMING WOULD FAVOR
MAINLY WESTERN AREAS WITH SOME LOW CHANCES FOR A LATE DAY/EVENING
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM...SUCH AS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS/SCHOHARIE
VALLEY/MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS. HAVE INDICATED
SLIGHT CHC/LOW CHC POPS FOR THESE AREAS LATE IN THE DAY INTO EARLY
SAT NT...WHILE KEEPING AREAS E OF THE HUDSON RIVER DRY FOR NOW.
OVERALL AREAL COVERAGE SHOULD NOT BE VERY WIDESPREAD EVEN IF THEY
DO REACH THESE AREAS. OTHERWISE...MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER
80S IN VALLEYS AND 70S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH SAT NT/SUN
AM MINS FALLING INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO START OFF DRY AS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY MORNING AND
SETTLES ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. THERE SHOULD BE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL BOTH DAYS. EXPECT HIGHS ON BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY TO BE IN
THE MID 70S TO MID 80S WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S AND MONDAY
NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

A RETURN TO UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS FIRST A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE FA ON TUESDAY
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY FOR SUNDAY. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE 70S TO LOWER
80S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ENDING
AT 06Z FRIDAY AS A RESULT CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AND
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT. WITH THE GROUND WET/DAMP IN MANY LOCATIONS
SOME MVFR FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM. ANY LINGERING FOG WILL BURN OFF
AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL TODAY. WESTERLY WINDS OF LESS
THAN 10 KTS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT
KGFL. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OCCURRED TUE-WED. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY
LIGHT TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY AS A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AFTER THE WIDESPREAD 1-2 INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER THE PAST TWO
DAYS...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
SATURDAY...OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN SUNDAY
THROUGH LATE MONDAY. RIVER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FALL
THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD...AFTER SOME INITIAL CRESTS TODAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/HWJIV/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...IAA/11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/KL




000
FXUS61 KOKX 020831
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
431 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH OVERNIGHT. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH WILL LINGER ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN
FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO
THE SOUTH ON INDEPENDENCE DAY. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD IN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY...WITH SCT FAIR WX CU
DEVELOPING AND HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER/MID 80S...BUT UPPER 70S
ALONG MOST SOUTH-FACING SHORELINES AND IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
THESE TEMPS ARE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THOSE OF YESTERDAY AND A
TOUCH LOWER THAN THE COOLER 00Z GFS MOS GUIDANCE.

COASTAL SEA BREEZES SHOULD DEVELOP...AND WILL BE WEAKER THAN THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH TEMPS INLAND.

EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDS...THOUGH COULD SEE AN ISOLD SHOWER OR
TSTM DEVELOP LATE TODAY IN/NEAR NE NJ IN POCKET OF
INSTABILITY/BLYR MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES.

THERE IS A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK AT THE OCEAN BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP IN/NEAR NE NJ COULD DRIFT E
TOWARD NYC NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD START TO BUILD FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT
INTO FRI...WITH N-NE FLOW AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...THEN WEAK
COASTAL SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE A COOLER LOWER/MID 60S IN MOST PLACES...AND
55-60 ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS WELL NORTH/WEST OF NYC.
HIGHS ON FRI UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER
STILL...MAINLY 75-80.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE 00Z MODEL SUITE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST WEAK LOW PRES WILL TRACK
OFF THE DELMARVA AND OUT TO SEA ON THE 4TH. THIS GIVES THE CWA A
GLANCING BLOW AT BEST...AND MAY ONLY RESULT IN SOME EXTRA CLOUDS
ESPECIALLY LI INTO THE CITY AND NJ. INCLUDED SOME LOW POPS...MAINLY
SCHC...FOR MOST OF THE AREA. IT SHOULD BE NOTED HOWEVER THAT AT THIS
POINT ANY RAIN LOOKS LGT AND SPOTTY AT BEST. THEREAFTER...HI PRES
BUILDS IN AND AS A RESULT HAVE GONE WITH A FAIR FCST THRU WED.
THE ECMWF DOES HINT AT SOME RAIN TUE AS RESIDUAL CONVECTION GETS
ENTRAINED IN THE UPR RIDGE. THIS APPEARS TO BE A ROGUE SOLN ATTM
HOWEVER SO HAVE KEPT POPS BLW 15. DESPITE A DRY AIR MASS SUN-WED
WITH PW GENERALLY AOB 1 INCH...THE HUMIDITY WILL NOT BE
PARTICULARLY LOW...ESPECIALLY AS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
ARRIVES...AS PERSISTENT SLY COMPONENT FLOW DRAWS LLVL MOISTURE
INTO THE CWA FROM THE ATLC. THIS COULD SET THE STAGE FOR SOME
BOUTS OF MRNG FOG IF WINDS ARE LGT ENOUGH. TEMPS THRU THE LONG
TERM CLOSE TO THE GMOS25 AND MAINLY AOB CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL TO THE S OF THE AREA TODAY AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

LIGHT NW-N FLOW WILL GIVE WAY TO SEA BREEZES AT THE COAST DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTN. COULD BE AN ISOLATED LATE DAY
SHOWER/TSTM NEAR THE NYC METRO TERMINALS. WINDS WILL LIKELY BECOME
LIGHT AND VRB FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SEABREEZE MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS.
DIRECTION FORECAST AT 17Z MAY BE 10-20 DEGREES MORE SE TO
START...BECOMING 180-190.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SEABREEZE MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: SEABREEZE MAY PUSH THROUGH THE AIRFIELD
BETWEEN 20-22Z

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: SEABREEZE MAY PUSH THROUGH THE AIRFIELD
BETWEEN 20-22Z

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: SEABREEZE MAY PUSH THROUGH THE AIRFIELD
BETWEEN 19-22Z

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SEABREEZE MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THU NIGHT...VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS.
.FRI...VFR WITH WINDS VEERING FROM THE NE TO THE ESE. SEA BREEZES
POSSIBLE.
.FRI NIGHT-SAT...LOW PRES WILL TRACK S OF THE REGION. IF THE LOW IS
CLOSE ENOUGH...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WITH -RA. WINDS GENERALLY NE
OR E.
.SAT NIGHT-MON...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS REMAIN AT 5 FT AT BUOY 44017 AND ARE CLOSER TO 4 FT AT THE
BUOYS TO THE WEST...SO SCAHS CONTINUES E OF MORICHES INLET.
THESE SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE BLW 5 FT BY DAYBREAK AS FLOW TURNS MORE
OFFSHORE AFTER A COLD FROPA.

SEAS WILL GET CLOSE TO 5 FT ON THE OCEAN ON SAT AS LOW PRES PASSES
TO THE S. ELSEWHERE...NE WINDS SHOULD BE IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL THEN LIKELY REMAIN BLW SCA LVLS SUN-WED AS A
BROAD AREA OF HI PRES SETTLES IN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT PCPN NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A FULL MOON...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 3/4 TO 1 1/2 FT ARE
NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED AT THE
PEAK OF THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDES THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
MINOR BENCHMARKS COULD BRIEFLY BE TOUCHED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE
BAYS OF NASSAU COUNTY THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY
     THIS MORNING FOR ANZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...JMC/GOODMAN
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...24
MARINE...JMC/GOODMAN
HYDROLOGY...JMC/GOODMAN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KOKX 020831
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
431 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH OVERNIGHT. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH WILL LINGER ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN
FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO
THE SOUTH ON INDEPENDENCE DAY. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD IN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY...WITH SCT FAIR WX CU
DEVELOPING AND HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER/MID 80S...BUT UPPER 70S
ALONG MOST SOUTH-FACING SHORELINES AND IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
THESE TEMPS ARE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THOSE OF YESTERDAY AND A
TOUCH LOWER THAN THE COOLER 00Z GFS MOS GUIDANCE.

COASTAL SEA BREEZES SHOULD DEVELOP...AND WILL BE WEAKER THAN THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH TEMPS INLAND.

EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDS...THOUGH COULD SEE AN ISOLD SHOWER OR
TSTM DEVELOP LATE TODAY IN/NEAR NE NJ IN POCKET OF
INSTABILITY/BLYR MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES.

THERE IS A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK AT THE OCEAN BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP IN/NEAR NE NJ COULD DRIFT E
TOWARD NYC NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD START TO BUILD FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT
INTO FRI...WITH N-NE FLOW AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...THEN WEAK
COASTAL SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE A COOLER LOWER/MID 60S IN MOST PLACES...AND
55-60 ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS WELL NORTH/WEST OF NYC.
HIGHS ON FRI UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER
STILL...MAINLY 75-80.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE 00Z MODEL SUITE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST WEAK LOW PRES WILL TRACK
OFF THE DELMARVA AND OUT TO SEA ON THE 4TH. THIS GIVES THE CWA A
GLANCING BLOW AT BEST...AND MAY ONLY RESULT IN SOME EXTRA CLOUDS
ESPECIALLY LI INTO THE CITY AND NJ. INCLUDED SOME LOW POPS...MAINLY
SCHC...FOR MOST OF THE AREA. IT SHOULD BE NOTED HOWEVER THAT AT THIS
POINT ANY RAIN LOOKS LGT AND SPOTTY AT BEST. THEREAFTER...HI PRES
BUILDS IN AND AS A RESULT HAVE GONE WITH A FAIR FCST THRU WED.
THE ECMWF DOES HINT AT SOME RAIN TUE AS RESIDUAL CONVECTION GETS
ENTRAINED IN THE UPR RIDGE. THIS APPEARS TO BE A ROGUE SOLN ATTM
HOWEVER SO HAVE KEPT POPS BLW 15. DESPITE A DRY AIR MASS SUN-WED
WITH PW GENERALLY AOB 1 INCH...THE HUMIDITY WILL NOT BE
PARTICULARLY LOW...ESPECIALLY AS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
ARRIVES...AS PERSISTENT SLY COMPONENT FLOW DRAWS LLVL MOISTURE
INTO THE CWA FROM THE ATLC. THIS COULD SET THE STAGE FOR SOME
BOUTS OF MRNG FOG IF WINDS ARE LGT ENOUGH. TEMPS THRU THE LONG
TERM CLOSE TO THE GMOS25 AND MAINLY AOB CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL TO THE S OF THE AREA TODAY AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

LIGHT NW-N FLOW WILL GIVE WAY TO SEA BREEZES AT THE COAST DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTN. COULD BE AN ISOLATED LATE DAY
SHOWER/TSTM NEAR THE NYC METRO TERMINALS. WINDS WILL LIKELY BECOME
LIGHT AND VRB FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SEABREEZE MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS.
DIRECTION FORECAST AT 17Z MAY BE 10-20 DEGREES MORE SE TO
START...BECOMING 180-190.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SEABREEZE MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: SEABREEZE MAY PUSH THROUGH THE AIRFIELD
BETWEEN 20-22Z

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: SEABREEZE MAY PUSH THROUGH THE AIRFIELD
BETWEEN 20-22Z

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: SEABREEZE MAY PUSH THROUGH THE AIRFIELD
BETWEEN 19-22Z

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SEABREEZE MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THU NIGHT...VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS.
.FRI...VFR WITH WINDS VEERING FROM THE NE TO THE ESE. SEA BREEZES
POSSIBLE.
.FRI NIGHT-SAT...LOW PRES WILL TRACK S OF THE REGION. IF THE LOW IS
CLOSE ENOUGH...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WITH -RA. WINDS GENERALLY NE
OR E.
.SAT NIGHT-MON...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS REMAIN AT 5 FT AT BUOY 44017 AND ARE CLOSER TO 4 FT AT THE
BUOYS TO THE WEST...SO SCAHS CONTINUES E OF MORICHES INLET.
THESE SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE BLW 5 FT BY DAYBREAK AS FLOW TURNS MORE
OFFSHORE AFTER A COLD FROPA.

SEAS WILL GET CLOSE TO 5 FT ON THE OCEAN ON SAT AS LOW PRES PASSES
TO THE S. ELSEWHERE...NE WINDS SHOULD BE IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL THEN LIKELY REMAIN BLW SCA LVLS SUN-WED AS A
BROAD AREA OF HI PRES SETTLES IN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT PCPN NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A FULL MOON...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 3/4 TO 1 1/2 FT ARE
NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED AT THE
PEAK OF THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDES THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
MINOR BENCHMARKS COULD BRIEFLY BE TOUCHED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE
BAYS OF NASSAU COUNTY THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY
     THIS MORNING FOR ANZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...JMC/GOODMAN
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...24
MARINE...JMC/GOODMAN
HYDROLOGY...JMC/GOODMAN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KBOX 020758
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
358 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALLING NEAR THE SOUTH COAST TODAY...BEFORE
MOVING OFFSHORE TONIGHT. ASIDE FROM A FEW SHOWERS LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT OVER CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS...AND A SPOT SHOWER NEAR
THE SOUTH COAST ON SATURDAY...DRY WEATHER PREVAILS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH GRADUALLY WARMING CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT STALLS NEAR THE COAST...BUT THE ATMOSPHERE IS
FAIRLY DRY WITH LIMITED TO NO INSTABILITY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
MAINLY SOME CLOUDS AND DRY WEATHER. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE TOWARDS
NANTUCKET...WHERE CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND THERE IS A LOW RISK
FOR A SHOWER LATE AS SOME MOISTURE MOVES NORTH AHEAD OF WEAK
FRONTAL WAVE. LOCAL SEABREEZES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES LOWER ALONG
THE COAST...WHERE THEY DEVELOP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
WEAK FRONT MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL WAVE
PASSES BY THE BENCHMARK. MAJORITY OF THE RAINFALL WILL STAY SOUTH
OF OUR REGION. HOWEVER...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TOWARD
NANTUCKET...WITH A LOWER RISK OF THESE SHOWERS REACHING AS FAR
NORTH AS CAPE COD...AND AS FAR WEST AS THE VINEYARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

 * LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER ON SATURDAY.
 * GRADUALLY WARMING CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...AMPLIFIED BLOCKING FLOW PATTERN
CONTINUES MAINLY ACROSS THE ERN PACIFIC AND WRN ATLANTIC UNDER
STRONG RIDGING...ESPECIALLY IN THE PACIFIC WHERE THE EPO IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO DIVE STRONGLY NEGATIVE. THIS LEAVES MUCH
OF THE CONUS IN A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW REGIME. NEARLY...BECAUSE VERY
WEAK TROUGHING IS EVIDENT PARTICULARLY AS NRN STREAM ENERGY MOVES
SHIFTS THROUGH HE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE MEAN JET. HOWEVER...UNTIL
ABOUT THE MID PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW
SRN NEW ENGLAND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WRN ATLANTIC RIDGING.
SO EVEN WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE THIS WEEKEND...IT LOOKS TO
MOVE THROUGH WITH LITTLE FANFARE AS SOUNDINGS SHOW DRY/SUBSIDENCE
IN PLACE. WITH MODERATE AGREEMENT BETWEEN OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF
/SOME SMALLER SCALE DIFFERENCES EXIST/ A BLEND WILL BE USED
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. BEYOND THIS...THERE IS SOME SIGNIFICANT
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING A SHIFT AS THE NRN STREAM VORTEX REGAINS
CONTROL ACROSS THE AREA...LEADING TO A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN.

DETAILS...

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT...WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING E FROM
THE GREAT LAKES AND A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE S...WILL
LIKELY SEE CYCLOGENESIS OF A WEAK LOW PRES CENTER WELL TO THE S.
THIS WILL ALSO INTRODUCE RIDGE OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR WHICH LOOKS
TO REMAIN TO THE W. FOR NOW...THE BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO REMAIN NEAR
THE S COAST...CLOSER TO THE DEVELOPING LOW PRES. HOWEVER...COLUMN
REMAINS MOSTLY DRY AND SUGGESTS SOME INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE MOVING
E OF THE REGION. SO SUSPECT ONLY A FEW SPOT SHOWERS TO CONTEND
WITH AT MOST. TEMPS AT H85 ARE AROUND +10C...SO SUSPECT 2M TEMPS
TO REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

SUN INTO TUE...AS STRONG NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN
ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA...THE WARM ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO RIDGE
AMPLIFICATION OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL LEAD
TO FAIRLY STRONG HIGH PRES DEVELOPMENT WHICH MAY LOCK IN PLACE FOR
A FEW DAYS OF DRY WX. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
MODERATING MID LVL TEMPS AND RISING HUMIDITY PARTICULARLY MON AND
TUE. H85 TEMPS INCREASE TO AN AVERAGE OF +12C MON...THEN CLOSER TO
+14C BY TUE. THEREFORE...AWAY FROM COASTLINES /WHERE SEA BREEZES
WILL LIMIT WARMING/ EXPECT TEMPS WARMER THAN EARLY JULY NORMALS.

MID-LATE NEXT WEEK...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...BECAUSE THIS IS SUCH A
ROBUST SHORTWAVE/CUTOFF THAT MODELS ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP...THERE
IS LITTLE AGREEMENT BETWEEN THEM REGARDING TIMING/STRENGTH...AND
ENSEMBLES ARE LITTLE HELP. HOWEVER...WITH FAIRLY WARM/HUMID
CONDITIONS AND AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
TRANSITION TO A WETTER AND MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN TOWARD THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THROUGH 12Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. PATCHY MVFR/IFR IN
DEVELOPING STRATUS AND FOG.

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR MOST AREAS. BUT MVFR CIGS/VSBYS MAY
DEVELOP TOWARD KACK LATE...ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF A FEW SHOWERS.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. AREAS OF MVFR/IFR
POSSIBLE CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. SHOWERS LIKELY FOR KACK...POSSIBLY
REACHING THE S COAST AND CAPE COD.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. WEAK SEA BREEZES LIKELY MOST DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

LINGERING ROUGH SEAS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TODAY. SO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL
PERSIST OVER THESE WATERS FOR A WHILE LONGER. CHANGEABLE WINDS AS
A COLD FRONT FIRST STALLS ACROSS THE WATERS...THEN MOVES FARTHER
OFFSHORE TONIGHT. WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KT. ONCE
SEAS DIMINISH BELOW 5 FEET...EXPECTING RATHER TRANQUIL BOATING
CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. THE MAIN ISSUE AT THAT POINT WOULD BE
REDUCED VISIBILITY IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. A WEEK LOW PRES WILL
PASS WELL S OF THE WATERS. THIS MAY LEAD TO E FLOW REACHING
20-25 KT ON THE SRN WATERS AND A BUILDING SWELL WHICH COULD REACH
5-6 FT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED. OTHERWISE...SOME
SHOWERS AND FOG AT TIMES MAY LEAD TO REDUCED VSBYS...MAINLY ON THE
SRN WATERS AS WELL.

SUN AN MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES WILL MOVE OVER THE WATERS
ALLOWING AND REMNANT SWELL TO SUBSIDE. AFTER WHICH QUIET BOATING
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ255-
     256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ235-
     237.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 020758
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
358 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALLING NEAR THE SOUTH COAST TODAY...BEFORE
MOVING OFFSHORE TONIGHT. ASIDE FROM A FEW SHOWERS LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT OVER CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS...AND A SPOT SHOWER NEAR
THE SOUTH COAST ON SATURDAY...DRY WEATHER PREVAILS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH GRADUALLY WARMING CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT STALLS NEAR THE COAST...BUT THE ATMOSPHERE IS
FAIRLY DRY WITH LIMITED TO NO INSTABILITY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
MAINLY SOME CLOUDS AND DRY WEATHER. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE TOWARDS
NANTUCKET...WHERE CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND THERE IS A LOW RISK
FOR A SHOWER LATE AS SOME MOISTURE MOVES NORTH AHEAD OF WEAK
FRONTAL WAVE. LOCAL SEABREEZES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES LOWER ALONG
THE COAST...WHERE THEY DEVELOP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
WEAK FRONT MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL WAVE
PASSES BY THE BENCHMARK. MAJORITY OF THE RAINFALL WILL STAY SOUTH
OF OUR REGION. HOWEVER...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TOWARD
NANTUCKET...WITH A LOWER RISK OF THESE SHOWERS REACHING AS FAR
NORTH AS CAPE COD...AND AS FAR WEST AS THE VINEYARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

 * LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER ON SATURDAY.
 * GRADUALLY WARMING CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...AMPLIFIED BLOCKING FLOW PATTERN
CONTINUES MAINLY ACROSS THE ERN PACIFIC AND WRN ATLANTIC UNDER
STRONG RIDGING...ESPECIALLY IN THE PACIFIC WHERE THE EPO IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO DIVE STRONGLY NEGATIVE. THIS LEAVES MUCH
OF THE CONUS IN A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW REGIME. NEARLY...BECAUSE VERY
WEAK TROUGHING IS EVIDENT PARTICULARLY AS NRN STREAM ENERGY MOVES
SHIFTS THROUGH HE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE MEAN JET. HOWEVER...UNTIL
ABOUT THE MID PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW
SRN NEW ENGLAND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WRN ATLANTIC RIDGING.
SO EVEN WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE THIS WEEKEND...IT LOOKS TO
MOVE THROUGH WITH LITTLE FANFARE AS SOUNDINGS SHOW DRY/SUBSIDENCE
IN PLACE. WITH MODERATE AGREEMENT BETWEEN OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF
/SOME SMALLER SCALE DIFFERENCES EXIST/ A BLEND WILL BE USED
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. BEYOND THIS...THERE IS SOME SIGNIFICANT
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING A SHIFT AS THE NRN STREAM VORTEX REGAINS
CONTROL ACROSS THE AREA...LEADING TO A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN.

DETAILS...

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT...WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING E FROM
THE GREAT LAKES AND A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE S...WILL
LIKELY SEE CYCLOGENESIS OF A WEAK LOW PRES CENTER WELL TO THE S.
THIS WILL ALSO INTRODUCE RIDGE OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR WHICH LOOKS
TO REMAIN TO THE W. FOR NOW...THE BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO REMAIN NEAR
THE S COAST...CLOSER TO THE DEVELOPING LOW PRES. HOWEVER...COLUMN
REMAINS MOSTLY DRY AND SUGGESTS SOME INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE MOVING
E OF THE REGION. SO SUSPECT ONLY A FEW SPOT SHOWERS TO CONTEND
WITH AT MOST. TEMPS AT H85 ARE AROUND +10C...SO SUSPECT 2M TEMPS
TO REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

SUN INTO TUE...AS STRONG NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN
ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA...THE WARM ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO RIDGE
AMPLIFICATION OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL LEAD
TO FAIRLY STRONG HIGH PRES DEVELOPMENT WHICH MAY LOCK IN PLACE FOR
A FEW DAYS OF DRY WX. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
MODERATING MID LVL TEMPS AND RISING HUMIDITY PARTICULARLY MON AND
TUE. H85 TEMPS INCREASE TO AN AVERAGE OF +12C MON...THEN CLOSER TO
+14C BY TUE. THEREFORE...AWAY FROM COASTLINES /WHERE SEA BREEZES
WILL LIMIT WARMING/ EXPECT TEMPS WARMER THAN EARLY JULY NORMALS.

MID-LATE NEXT WEEK...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...BECAUSE THIS IS SUCH A
ROBUST SHORTWAVE/CUTOFF THAT MODELS ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP...THERE
IS LITTLE AGREEMENT BETWEEN THEM REGARDING TIMING/STRENGTH...AND
ENSEMBLES ARE LITTLE HELP. HOWEVER...WITH FAIRLY WARM/HUMID
CONDITIONS AND AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
TRANSITION TO A WETTER AND MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN TOWARD THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THROUGH 12Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. PATCHY MVFR/IFR IN
DEVELOPING STRATUS AND FOG.

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR MOST AREAS. BUT MVFR CIGS/VSBYS MAY
DEVELOP TOWARD KACK LATE...ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF A FEW SHOWERS.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. AREAS OF MVFR/IFR
POSSIBLE CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. SHOWERS LIKELY FOR KACK...POSSIBLY
REACHING THE S COAST AND CAPE COD.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. WEAK SEA BREEZES LIKELY MOST DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

LINGERING ROUGH SEAS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TODAY. SO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL
PERSIST OVER THESE WATERS FOR A WHILE LONGER. CHANGEABLE WINDS AS
A COLD FRONT FIRST STALLS ACROSS THE WATERS...THEN MOVES FARTHER
OFFSHORE TONIGHT. WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KT. ONCE
SEAS DIMINISH BELOW 5 FEET...EXPECTING RATHER TRANQUIL BOATING
CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. THE MAIN ISSUE AT THAT POINT WOULD BE
REDUCED VISIBILITY IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. A WEEK LOW PRES WILL
PASS WELL S OF THE WATERS. THIS MAY LEAD TO E FLOW REACHING
20-25 KT ON THE SRN WATERS AND A BUILDING SWELL WHICH COULD REACH
5-6 FT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED. OTHERWISE...SOME
SHOWERS AND FOG AT TIMES MAY LEAD TO REDUCED VSBYS...MAINLY ON THE
SRN WATERS AS WELL.

SUN AN MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES WILL MOVE OVER THE WATERS
ALLOWING AND REMNANT SWELL TO SUBSIDE. AFTER WHICH QUIET BOATING
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ255-
     256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ235-
     237.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY



000
FXUS61 KBOX 020758
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
358 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALLING NEAR THE SOUTH COAST TODAY...BEFORE
MOVING OFFSHORE TONIGHT. ASIDE FROM A FEW SHOWERS LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT OVER CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS...AND A SPOT SHOWER NEAR
THE SOUTH COAST ON SATURDAY...DRY WEATHER PREVAILS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH GRADUALLY WARMING CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT STALLS NEAR THE COAST...BUT THE ATMOSPHERE IS
FAIRLY DRY WITH LIMITED TO NO INSTABILITY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
MAINLY SOME CLOUDS AND DRY WEATHER. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE TOWARDS
NANTUCKET...WHERE CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND THERE IS A LOW RISK
FOR A SHOWER LATE AS SOME MOISTURE MOVES NORTH AHEAD OF WEAK
FRONTAL WAVE. LOCAL SEABREEZES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES LOWER ALONG
THE COAST...WHERE THEY DEVELOP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
WEAK FRONT MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL WAVE
PASSES BY THE BENCHMARK. MAJORITY OF THE RAINFALL WILL STAY SOUTH
OF OUR REGION. HOWEVER...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TOWARD
NANTUCKET...WITH A LOWER RISK OF THESE SHOWERS REACHING AS FAR
NORTH AS CAPE COD...AND AS FAR WEST AS THE VINEYARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

 * LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER ON SATURDAY.
 * GRADUALLY WARMING CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...AMPLIFIED BLOCKING FLOW PATTERN
CONTINUES MAINLY ACROSS THE ERN PACIFIC AND WRN ATLANTIC UNDER
STRONG RIDGING...ESPECIALLY IN THE PACIFIC WHERE THE EPO IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO DIVE STRONGLY NEGATIVE. THIS LEAVES MUCH
OF THE CONUS IN A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW REGIME. NEARLY...BECAUSE VERY
WEAK TROUGHING IS EVIDENT PARTICULARLY AS NRN STREAM ENERGY MOVES
SHIFTS THROUGH HE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE MEAN JET. HOWEVER...UNTIL
ABOUT THE MID PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW
SRN NEW ENGLAND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WRN ATLANTIC RIDGING.
SO EVEN WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE THIS WEEKEND...IT LOOKS TO
MOVE THROUGH WITH LITTLE FANFARE AS SOUNDINGS SHOW DRY/SUBSIDENCE
IN PLACE. WITH MODERATE AGREEMENT BETWEEN OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF
/SOME SMALLER SCALE DIFFERENCES EXIST/ A BLEND WILL BE USED
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. BEYOND THIS...THERE IS SOME SIGNIFICANT
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING A SHIFT AS THE NRN STREAM VORTEX REGAINS
CONTROL ACROSS THE AREA...LEADING TO A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN.

DETAILS...

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT...WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING E FROM
THE GREAT LAKES AND A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE S...WILL
LIKELY SEE CYCLOGENESIS OF A WEAK LOW PRES CENTER WELL TO THE S.
THIS WILL ALSO INTRODUCE RIDGE OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR WHICH LOOKS
TO REMAIN TO THE W. FOR NOW...THE BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO REMAIN NEAR
THE S COAST...CLOSER TO THE DEVELOPING LOW PRES. HOWEVER...COLUMN
REMAINS MOSTLY DRY AND SUGGESTS SOME INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE MOVING
E OF THE REGION. SO SUSPECT ONLY A FEW SPOT SHOWERS TO CONTEND
WITH AT MOST. TEMPS AT H85 ARE AROUND +10C...SO SUSPECT 2M TEMPS
TO REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

SUN INTO TUE...AS STRONG NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN
ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA...THE WARM ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO RIDGE
AMPLIFICATION OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL LEAD
TO FAIRLY STRONG HIGH PRES DEVELOPMENT WHICH MAY LOCK IN PLACE FOR
A FEW DAYS OF DRY WX. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
MODERATING MID LVL TEMPS AND RISING HUMIDITY PARTICULARLY MON AND
TUE. H85 TEMPS INCREASE TO AN AVERAGE OF +12C MON...THEN CLOSER TO
+14C BY TUE. THEREFORE...AWAY FROM COASTLINES /WHERE SEA BREEZES
WILL LIMIT WARMING/ EXPECT TEMPS WARMER THAN EARLY JULY NORMALS.

MID-LATE NEXT WEEK...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...BECAUSE THIS IS SUCH A
ROBUST SHORTWAVE/CUTOFF THAT MODELS ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP...THERE
IS LITTLE AGREEMENT BETWEEN THEM REGARDING TIMING/STRENGTH...AND
ENSEMBLES ARE LITTLE HELP. HOWEVER...WITH FAIRLY WARM/HUMID
CONDITIONS AND AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
TRANSITION TO A WETTER AND MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN TOWARD THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THROUGH 12Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. PATCHY MVFR/IFR IN
DEVELOPING STRATUS AND FOG.

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR MOST AREAS. BUT MVFR CIGS/VSBYS MAY
DEVELOP TOWARD KACK LATE...ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF A FEW SHOWERS.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. AREAS OF MVFR/IFR
POSSIBLE CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. SHOWERS LIKELY FOR KACK...POSSIBLY
REACHING THE S COAST AND CAPE COD.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. WEAK SEA BREEZES LIKELY MOST DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

LINGERING ROUGH SEAS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TODAY. SO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL
PERSIST OVER THESE WATERS FOR A WHILE LONGER. CHANGEABLE WINDS AS
A COLD FRONT FIRST STALLS ACROSS THE WATERS...THEN MOVES FARTHER
OFFSHORE TONIGHT. WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KT. ONCE
SEAS DIMINISH BELOW 5 FEET...EXPECTING RATHER TRANQUIL BOATING
CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. THE MAIN ISSUE AT THAT POINT WOULD BE
REDUCED VISIBILITY IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. A WEEK LOW PRES WILL
PASS WELL S OF THE WATERS. THIS MAY LEAD TO E FLOW REACHING
20-25 KT ON THE SRN WATERS AND A BUILDING SWELL WHICH COULD REACH
5-6 FT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED. OTHERWISE...SOME
SHOWERS AND FOG AT TIMES MAY LEAD TO REDUCED VSBYS...MAINLY ON THE
SRN WATERS AS WELL.

SUN AN MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES WILL MOVE OVER THE WATERS
ALLOWING AND REMNANT SWELL TO SUBSIDE. AFTER WHICH QUIET BOATING
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ255-
     256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ235-
     237.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY



000
FXUS61 KBOX 020758
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
358 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALLING NEAR THE SOUTH COAST TODAY...BEFORE
MOVING OFFSHORE TONIGHT. ASIDE FROM A FEW SHOWERS LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT OVER CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS...AND A SPOT SHOWER NEAR
THE SOUTH COAST ON SATURDAY...DRY WEATHER PREVAILS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH GRADUALLY WARMING CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT STALLS NEAR THE COAST...BUT THE ATMOSPHERE IS
FAIRLY DRY WITH LIMITED TO NO INSTABILITY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
MAINLY SOME CLOUDS AND DRY WEATHER. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE TOWARDS
NANTUCKET...WHERE CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND THERE IS A LOW RISK
FOR A SHOWER LATE AS SOME MOISTURE MOVES NORTH AHEAD OF WEAK
FRONTAL WAVE. LOCAL SEABREEZES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES LOWER ALONG
THE COAST...WHERE THEY DEVELOP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
WEAK FRONT MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL WAVE
PASSES BY THE BENCHMARK. MAJORITY OF THE RAINFALL WILL STAY SOUTH
OF OUR REGION. HOWEVER...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TOWARD
NANTUCKET...WITH A LOWER RISK OF THESE SHOWERS REACHING AS FAR
NORTH AS CAPE COD...AND AS FAR WEST AS THE VINEYARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

 * LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER ON SATURDAY.
 * GRADUALLY WARMING CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...AMPLIFIED BLOCKING FLOW PATTERN
CONTINUES MAINLY ACROSS THE ERN PACIFIC AND WRN ATLANTIC UNDER
STRONG RIDGING...ESPECIALLY IN THE PACIFIC WHERE THE EPO IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO DIVE STRONGLY NEGATIVE. THIS LEAVES MUCH
OF THE CONUS IN A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW REGIME. NEARLY...BECAUSE VERY
WEAK TROUGHING IS EVIDENT PARTICULARLY AS NRN STREAM ENERGY MOVES
SHIFTS THROUGH HE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE MEAN JET. HOWEVER...UNTIL
ABOUT THE MID PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW
SRN NEW ENGLAND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WRN ATLANTIC RIDGING.
SO EVEN WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE THIS WEEKEND...IT LOOKS TO
MOVE THROUGH WITH LITTLE FANFARE AS SOUNDINGS SHOW DRY/SUBSIDENCE
IN PLACE. WITH MODERATE AGREEMENT BETWEEN OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF
/SOME SMALLER SCALE DIFFERENCES EXIST/ A BLEND WILL BE USED
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. BEYOND THIS...THERE IS SOME SIGNIFICANT
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING A SHIFT AS THE NRN STREAM VORTEX REGAINS
CONTROL ACROSS THE AREA...LEADING TO A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN.

DETAILS...

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT...WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING E FROM
THE GREAT LAKES AND A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE S...WILL
LIKELY SEE CYCLOGENESIS OF A WEAK LOW PRES CENTER WELL TO THE S.
THIS WILL ALSO INTRODUCE RIDGE OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR WHICH LOOKS
TO REMAIN TO THE W. FOR NOW...THE BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO REMAIN NEAR
THE S COAST...CLOSER TO THE DEVELOPING LOW PRES. HOWEVER...COLUMN
REMAINS MOSTLY DRY AND SUGGESTS SOME INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE MOVING
E OF THE REGION. SO SUSPECT ONLY A FEW SPOT SHOWERS TO CONTEND
WITH AT MOST. TEMPS AT H85 ARE AROUND +10C...SO SUSPECT 2M TEMPS
TO REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

SUN INTO TUE...AS STRONG NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN
ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA...THE WARM ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO RIDGE
AMPLIFICATION OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL LEAD
TO FAIRLY STRONG HIGH PRES DEVELOPMENT WHICH MAY LOCK IN PLACE FOR
A FEW DAYS OF DRY WX. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
MODERATING MID LVL TEMPS AND RISING HUMIDITY PARTICULARLY MON AND
TUE. H85 TEMPS INCREASE TO AN AVERAGE OF +12C MON...THEN CLOSER TO
+14C BY TUE. THEREFORE...AWAY FROM COASTLINES /WHERE SEA BREEZES
WILL LIMIT WARMING/ EXPECT TEMPS WARMER THAN EARLY JULY NORMALS.

MID-LATE NEXT WEEK...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...BECAUSE THIS IS SUCH A
ROBUST SHORTWAVE/CUTOFF THAT MODELS ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP...THERE
IS LITTLE AGREEMENT BETWEEN THEM REGARDING TIMING/STRENGTH...AND
ENSEMBLES ARE LITTLE HELP. HOWEVER...WITH FAIRLY WARM/HUMID
CONDITIONS AND AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
TRANSITION TO A WETTER AND MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN TOWARD THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THROUGH 12Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. PATCHY MVFR/IFR IN
DEVELOPING STRATUS AND FOG.

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR MOST AREAS. BUT MVFR CIGS/VSBYS MAY
DEVELOP TOWARD KACK LATE...ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF A FEW SHOWERS.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. AREAS OF MVFR/IFR
POSSIBLE CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. SHOWERS LIKELY FOR KACK...POSSIBLY
REACHING THE S COAST AND CAPE COD.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. WEAK SEA BREEZES LIKELY MOST DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

LINGERING ROUGH SEAS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TODAY. SO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL
PERSIST OVER THESE WATERS FOR A WHILE LONGER. CHANGEABLE WINDS AS
A COLD FRONT FIRST STALLS ACROSS THE WATERS...THEN MOVES FARTHER
OFFSHORE TONIGHT. WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KT. ONCE
SEAS DIMINISH BELOW 5 FEET...EXPECTING RATHER TRANQUIL BOATING
CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. THE MAIN ISSUE AT THAT POINT WOULD BE
REDUCED VISIBILITY IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. A WEEK LOW PRES WILL
PASS WELL S OF THE WATERS. THIS MAY LEAD TO E FLOW REACHING
20-25 KT ON THE SRN WATERS AND A BUILDING SWELL WHICH COULD REACH
5-6 FT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED. OTHERWISE...SOME
SHOWERS AND FOG AT TIMES MAY LEAD TO REDUCED VSBYS...MAINLY ON THE
SRN WATERS AS WELL.

SUN AN MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES WILL MOVE OVER THE WATERS
ALLOWING AND REMNANT SWELL TO SUBSIDE. AFTER WHICH QUIET BOATING
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ255-
     256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ235-
     237.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY



000
FXUS61 KBOX 020758
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
358 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALLING NEAR THE SOUTH COAST TODAY...BEFORE
MOVING OFFSHORE TONIGHT. ASIDE FROM A FEW SHOWERS LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT OVER CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS...AND A SPOT SHOWER NEAR
THE SOUTH COAST ON SATURDAY...DRY WEATHER PREVAILS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH GRADUALLY WARMING CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT STALLS NEAR THE COAST...BUT THE ATMOSPHERE IS
FAIRLY DRY WITH LIMITED TO NO INSTABILITY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
MAINLY SOME CLOUDS AND DRY WEATHER. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE TOWARDS
NANTUCKET...WHERE CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND THERE IS A LOW RISK
FOR A SHOWER LATE AS SOME MOISTURE MOVES NORTH AHEAD OF WEAK
FRONTAL WAVE. LOCAL SEABREEZES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES LOWER ALONG
THE COAST...WHERE THEY DEVELOP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
WEAK FRONT MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL WAVE
PASSES BY THE BENCHMARK. MAJORITY OF THE RAINFALL WILL STAY SOUTH
OF OUR REGION. HOWEVER...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TOWARD
NANTUCKET...WITH A LOWER RISK OF THESE SHOWERS REACHING AS FAR
NORTH AS CAPE COD...AND AS FAR WEST AS THE VINEYARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

 * LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER ON SATURDAY.
 * GRADUALLY WARMING CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...AMPLIFIED BLOCKING FLOW PATTERN
CONTINUES MAINLY ACROSS THE ERN PACIFIC AND WRN ATLANTIC UNDER
STRONG RIDGING...ESPECIALLY IN THE PACIFIC WHERE THE EPO IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO DIVE STRONGLY NEGATIVE. THIS LEAVES MUCH
OF THE CONUS IN A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW REGIME. NEARLY...BECAUSE VERY
WEAK TROUGHING IS EVIDENT PARTICULARLY AS NRN STREAM ENERGY MOVES
SHIFTS THROUGH HE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE MEAN JET. HOWEVER...UNTIL
ABOUT THE MID PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW
SRN NEW ENGLAND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WRN ATLANTIC RIDGING.
SO EVEN WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE THIS WEEKEND...IT LOOKS TO
MOVE THROUGH WITH LITTLE FANFARE AS SOUNDINGS SHOW DRY/SUBSIDENCE
IN PLACE. WITH MODERATE AGREEMENT BETWEEN OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF
/SOME SMALLER SCALE DIFFERENCES EXIST/ A BLEND WILL BE USED
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. BEYOND THIS...THERE IS SOME SIGNIFICANT
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING A SHIFT AS THE NRN STREAM VORTEX REGAINS
CONTROL ACROSS THE AREA...LEADING TO A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN.

DETAILS...

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT...WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING E FROM
THE GREAT LAKES AND A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE S...WILL
LIKELY SEE CYCLOGENESIS OF A WEAK LOW PRES CENTER WELL TO THE S.
THIS WILL ALSO INTRODUCE RIDGE OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR WHICH LOOKS
TO REMAIN TO THE W. FOR NOW...THE BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO REMAIN NEAR
THE S COAST...CLOSER TO THE DEVELOPING LOW PRES. HOWEVER...COLUMN
REMAINS MOSTLY DRY AND SUGGESTS SOME INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE MOVING
E OF THE REGION. SO SUSPECT ONLY A FEW SPOT SHOWERS TO CONTEND
WITH AT MOST. TEMPS AT H85 ARE AROUND +10C...SO SUSPECT 2M TEMPS
TO REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

SUN INTO TUE...AS STRONG NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN
ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA...THE WARM ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO RIDGE
AMPLIFICATION OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL LEAD
TO FAIRLY STRONG HIGH PRES DEVELOPMENT WHICH MAY LOCK IN PLACE FOR
A FEW DAYS OF DRY WX. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
MODERATING MID LVL TEMPS AND RISING HUMIDITY PARTICULARLY MON AND
TUE. H85 TEMPS INCREASE TO AN AVERAGE OF +12C MON...THEN CLOSER TO
+14C BY TUE. THEREFORE...AWAY FROM COASTLINES /WHERE SEA BREEZES
WILL LIMIT WARMING/ EXPECT TEMPS WARMER THAN EARLY JULY NORMALS.

MID-LATE NEXT WEEK...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...BECAUSE THIS IS SUCH A
ROBUST SHORTWAVE/CUTOFF THAT MODELS ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP...THERE
IS LITTLE AGREEMENT BETWEEN THEM REGARDING TIMING/STRENGTH...AND
ENSEMBLES ARE LITTLE HELP. HOWEVER...WITH FAIRLY WARM/HUMID
CONDITIONS AND AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
TRANSITION TO A WETTER AND MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN TOWARD THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THROUGH 12Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. PATCHY MVFR/IFR IN
DEVELOPING STRATUS AND FOG.

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR MOST AREAS. BUT MVFR CIGS/VSBYS MAY
DEVELOP TOWARD KACK LATE...ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF A FEW SHOWERS.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. AREAS OF MVFR/IFR
POSSIBLE CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. SHOWERS LIKELY FOR KACK...POSSIBLY
REACHING THE S COAST AND CAPE COD.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. WEAK SEA BREEZES LIKELY MOST DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

LINGERING ROUGH SEAS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TODAY. SO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL
PERSIST OVER THESE WATERS FOR A WHILE LONGER. CHANGEABLE WINDS AS
A COLD FRONT FIRST STALLS ACROSS THE WATERS...THEN MOVES FARTHER
OFFSHORE TONIGHT. WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KT. ONCE
SEAS DIMINISH BELOW 5 FEET...EXPECTING RATHER TRANQUIL BOATING
CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. THE MAIN ISSUE AT THAT POINT WOULD BE
REDUCED VISIBILITY IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. A WEEK LOW PRES WILL
PASS WELL S OF THE WATERS. THIS MAY LEAD TO E FLOW REACHING
20-25 KT ON THE SRN WATERS AND A BUILDING SWELL WHICH COULD REACH
5-6 FT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED. OTHERWISE...SOME
SHOWERS AND FOG AT TIMES MAY LEAD TO REDUCED VSBYS...MAINLY ON THE
SRN WATERS AS WELL.

SUN AN MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES WILL MOVE OVER THE WATERS
ALLOWING AND REMNANT SWELL TO SUBSIDE. AFTER WHICH QUIET BOATING
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ255-
     256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ235-
     237.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY



000
FXUS61 KBOX 020758
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
358 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALLING NEAR THE SOUTH COAST TODAY...BEFORE
MOVING OFFSHORE TONIGHT. ASIDE FROM A FEW SHOWERS LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT OVER CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS...AND A SPOT SHOWER NEAR
THE SOUTH COAST ON SATURDAY...DRY WEATHER PREVAILS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH GRADUALLY WARMING CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT STALLS NEAR THE COAST...BUT THE ATMOSPHERE IS
FAIRLY DRY WITH LIMITED TO NO INSTABILITY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
MAINLY SOME CLOUDS AND DRY WEATHER. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE TOWARDS
NANTUCKET...WHERE CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND THERE IS A LOW RISK
FOR A SHOWER LATE AS SOME MOISTURE MOVES NORTH AHEAD OF WEAK
FRONTAL WAVE. LOCAL SEABREEZES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES LOWER ALONG
THE COAST...WHERE THEY DEVELOP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
WEAK FRONT MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL WAVE
PASSES BY THE BENCHMARK. MAJORITY OF THE RAINFALL WILL STAY SOUTH
OF OUR REGION. HOWEVER...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TOWARD
NANTUCKET...WITH A LOWER RISK OF THESE SHOWERS REACHING AS FAR
NORTH AS CAPE COD...AND AS FAR WEST AS THE VINEYARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

 * LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER ON SATURDAY.
 * GRADUALLY WARMING CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...AMPLIFIED BLOCKING FLOW PATTERN
CONTINUES MAINLY ACROSS THE ERN PACIFIC AND WRN ATLANTIC UNDER
STRONG RIDGING...ESPECIALLY IN THE PACIFIC WHERE THE EPO IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO DIVE STRONGLY NEGATIVE. THIS LEAVES MUCH
OF THE CONUS IN A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW REGIME. NEARLY...BECAUSE VERY
WEAK TROUGHING IS EVIDENT PARTICULARLY AS NRN STREAM ENERGY MOVES
SHIFTS THROUGH HE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE MEAN JET. HOWEVER...UNTIL
ABOUT THE MID PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW
SRN NEW ENGLAND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WRN ATLANTIC RIDGING.
SO EVEN WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE THIS WEEKEND...IT LOOKS TO
MOVE THROUGH WITH LITTLE FANFARE AS SOUNDINGS SHOW DRY/SUBSIDENCE
IN PLACE. WITH MODERATE AGREEMENT BETWEEN OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF
/SOME SMALLER SCALE DIFFERENCES EXIST/ A BLEND WILL BE USED
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. BEYOND THIS...THERE IS SOME SIGNIFICANT
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING A SHIFT AS THE NRN STREAM VORTEX REGAINS
CONTROL ACROSS THE AREA...LEADING TO A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN.

DETAILS...

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT...WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING E FROM
THE GREAT LAKES AND A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE S...WILL
LIKELY SEE CYCLOGENESIS OF A WEAK LOW PRES CENTER WELL TO THE S.
THIS WILL ALSO INTRODUCE RIDGE OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR WHICH LOOKS
TO REMAIN TO THE W. FOR NOW...THE BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO REMAIN NEAR
THE S COAST...CLOSER TO THE DEVELOPING LOW PRES. HOWEVER...COLUMN
REMAINS MOSTLY DRY AND SUGGESTS SOME INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE MOVING
E OF THE REGION. SO SUSPECT ONLY A FEW SPOT SHOWERS TO CONTEND
WITH AT MOST. TEMPS AT H85 ARE AROUND +10C...SO SUSPECT 2M TEMPS
TO REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

SUN INTO TUE...AS STRONG NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN
ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA...THE WARM ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO RIDGE
AMPLIFICATION OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL LEAD
TO FAIRLY STRONG HIGH PRES DEVELOPMENT WHICH MAY LOCK IN PLACE FOR
A FEW DAYS OF DRY WX. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
MODERATING MID LVL TEMPS AND RISING HUMIDITY PARTICULARLY MON AND
TUE. H85 TEMPS INCREASE TO AN AVERAGE OF +12C MON...THEN CLOSER TO
+14C BY TUE. THEREFORE...AWAY FROM COASTLINES /WHERE SEA BREEZES
WILL LIMIT WARMING/ EXPECT TEMPS WARMER THAN EARLY JULY NORMALS.

MID-LATE NEXT WEEK...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...BECAUSE THIS IS SUCH A
ROBUST SHORTWAVE/CUTOFF THAT MODELS ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP...THERE
IS LITTLE AGREEMENT BETWEEN THEM REGARDING TIMING/STRENGTH...AND
ENSEMBLES ARE LITTLE HELP. HOWEVER...WITH FAIRLY WARM/HUMID
CONDITIONS AND AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
TRANSITION TO A WETTER AND MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN TOWARD THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THROUGH 12Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. PATCHY MVFR/IFR IN
DEVELOPING STRATUS AND FOG.

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR MOST AREAS. BUT MVFR CIGS/VSBYS MAY
DEVELOP TOWARD KACK LATE...ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF A FEW SHOWERS.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. AREAS OF MVFR/IFR
POSSIBLE CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. SHOWERS LIKELY FOR KACK...POSSIBLY
REACHING THE S COAST AND CAPE COD.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. WEAK SEA BREEZES LIKELY MOST DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

LINGERING ROUGH SEAS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TODAY. SO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL
PERSIST OVER THESE WATERS FOR A WHILE LONGER. CHANGEABLE WINDS AS
A COLD FRONT FIRST STALLS ACROSS THE WATERS...THEN MOVES FARTHER
OFFSHORE TONIGHT. WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KT. ONCE
SEAS DIMINISH BELOW 5 FEET...EXPECTING RATHER TRANQUIL BOATING
CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. THE MAIN ISSUE AT THAT POINT WOULD BE
REDUCED VISIBILITY IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. A WEEK LOW PRES WILL
PASS WELL S OF THE WATERS. THIS MAY LEAD TO E FLOW REACHING
20-25 KT ON THE SRN WATERS AND A BUILDING SWELL WHICH COULD REACH
5-6 FT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED. OTHERWISE...SOME
SHOWERS AND FOG AT TIMES MAY LEAD TO REDUCED VSBYS...MAINLY ON THE
SRN WATERS AS WELL.

SUN AN MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES WILL MOVE OVER THE WATERS
ALLOWING AND REMNANT SWELL TO SUBSIDE. AFTER WHICH QUIET BOATING
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ255-
     256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ235-
     237.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY



000
FXUS61 KOKX 020748
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
348 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH OVERNIGHT. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH WILL LINGER ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN
FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO
THE SOUTH ON INDEPENDENCE DAY. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD IN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY...WITH SCT FAIR WX CU
DEVELOPING AND HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER/MID 80S...BUT UPPER 70S
ALONG MOST SOUTH-FACING SHORELINES AND IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
THESE TEMPS ARE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THOSE OF YESTERDAY AND A
TOUCH LOWER THAN THE COOLER 00Z GFS MOS GUIDANCE.

COASTAL SEA BREEZES SHOULD DEVELOP...AND WILL BE WEAKER THAN THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH TEMPS INLAND.

EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDS...THOUGH COULD SEE AN ISOLD SHOWER OR
TSTM DEVELOP LATE TODAY IN/NEAR NE NJ IN POCKET OF
INSTABILITY/BLYR MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES.

THERE IS A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK AT THE OCEAN BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP IN/NEAR NE NJ COULD DRIFT E
TOWARD NYC NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD START TO BUILD FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT
INTO FRI...WITH N-NE FLOW AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...THEN WEAK
COASTAL SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE A COOLER LOWER/MID 60S IN MOST PLACES...AND
55-60 ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS WELL NORTH/WEST OF NYC.
HIGHS ON FRI UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER
STILL...MAINLY 75-80.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE 00Z MODEL SUITE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST WEAK LOW PRES WILL TRACK
OFF THE DELMARVA AND OUT TO SEA ON THE 4TH. THIS GIVES THE CWA A
GLANCING BLOW AT BEST...AND MAY ONLY RESULT IN SOME EXTRA CLOUDS
ESPECIALLY LI INTO THE CITY AND NJ. INCLUDED SOME LOW POPS...MAINLY
SCHC...FOR MOST OF THE AREA. IT SHOULD BE NOTED HOWEVER THAT AT THIS
POINT ANY RAIN LOOKS LGT AND SPOTTY AT BEST. THEREAFTER...HI PRES
BUILDS IN AND AS A RESULT HAVE GONE WITH A FAIR FCST THRU WED.
THE ECMWF DOES HINT AT SOME RAIN TUE AS RESIDUAL CONVECTION GETS
ENTRAINED IN THE UPR RIDGE. THIS APPEARS TO BE A ROGUE SOLN ATTM
HOWEVER SO HAVE KEPT POPS BLW 15. DESPITE A DRY AIR MASS SUN-WED
WITH PW GENERALLY AOB 1 INCH...THE HUMIDITY WILL NOT BE
PARTICULARLY LOW...ESPECIALLY AS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
ARRIVES...AS PERSISTENT SLY COMPONENT FLOW DRAWS LLVL MOISTURE
INTO THE CWA FROM THE ATLC. THIS COULD SET THE STAGE FOR SOME
BOUTS OF MRNG FOG IF WINDS ARE LGT ENOUGH. TEMPS THRU THE LONG
TERM CLOSE TO THE GMOS25 AND MAINLY AOB CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL TO THE S OF THE AREA TODAY AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

LIGHT NW-N FLOW WILL GIVE WAY TO SEA BREEZES AT THE COAST DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTN. COULD BE AN ISOLATED LATE DAY
SHOWER/TSTM NEAR THE NYC METRO TERMINALS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THU NIGHT...VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS.
.FRI...VFR WITH WINDS VEERING FROM THE NE TO THE ESE. SEA BREEZES
POSSIBLE.
.FRI NIGHT-SAT...LOW PRES WILL TRACK S OF THE REGION. IF THE LOW IS
CLOSE ENOUGH...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WITH -RA. WINDS GENERALLY NE
OR E.
.SAT NIGHT-MON...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS REMAIN AT 5 FT AT BUOY 44017 AND ARE CLOSER TO 4 FT AT THE
BUOYS TO THE WEST...SO SCAHS CONTINUES E OF MORICHES INLET.
THESE SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE BLW 5 FT BY DAYBREAK AS FLOW TURNS MORE
OFFSHORE AFTER A COLD FROPA.

SEAS WILL GET CLOSE TO 5 FT ON THE OCEAN ON SAT AS LOW PRES PASSES
TO THE S. ELSEWHERE...NE WINDS SHOULD BE IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL THEN LIKELY REMAIN BLW SCA LVLS SUN-WED AS A
BROAD AREA OF HI PRES SETTLES IN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT PCPN NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A FULL MOON...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 3/4 TO 1 1/2 FT ARE
NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED AT THE
PEAK OF THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDES THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
MINOR BENCHMARKS COULD BRIEFLY BE TOUCHED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE
BAYS OF NASSAU COUNTY THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY
     THIS MORNING FOR ANZ350.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JMC/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...JMC/GOODMAN
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...24
MARINE...JMC/GOODMAN
HYDROLOGY...JMC/GOODMAN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...GOODMAN/NV




000
FXUS61 KOKX 020748
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
348 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH OVERNIGHT. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH WILL LINGER ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN
FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO
THE SOUTH ON INDEPENDENCE DAY. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD IN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY...WITH SCT FAIR WX CU
DEVELOPING AND HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER/MID 80S...BUT UPPER 70S
ALONG MOST SOUTH-FACING SHORELINES AND IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
THESE TEMPS ARE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THOSE OF YESTERDAY AND A
TOUCH LOWER THAN THE COOLER 00Z GFS MOS GUIDANCE.

COASTAL SEA BREEZES SHOULD DEVELOP...AND WILL BE WEAKER THAN THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH TEMPS INLAND.

EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDS...THOUGH COULD SEE AN ISOLD SHOWER OR
TSTM DEVELOP LATE TODAY IN/NEAR NE NJ IN POCKET OF
INSTABILITY/BLYR MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES.

THERE IS A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK AT THE OCEAN BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP IN/NEAR NE NJ COULD DRIFT E
TOWARD NYC NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD START TO BUILD FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT
INTO FRI...WITH N-NE FLOW AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...THEN WEAK
COASTAL SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE A COOLER LOWER/MID 60S IN MOST PLACES...AND
55-60 ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS WELL NORTH/WEST OF NYC.
HIGHS ON FRI UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER
STILL...MAINLY 75-80.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE 00Z MODEL SUITE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST WEAK LOW PRES WILL TRACK
OFF THE DELMARVA AND OUT TO SEA ON THE 4TH. THIS GIVES THE CWA A
GLANCING BLOW AT BEST...AND MAY ONLY RESULT IN SOME EXTRA CLOUDS
ESPECIALLY LI INTO THE CITY AND NJ. INCLUDED SOME LOW POPS...MAINLY
SCHC...FOR MOST OF THE AREA. IT SHOULD BE NOTED HOWEVER THAT AT THIS
POINT ANY RAIN LOOKS LGT AND SPOTTY AT BEST. THEREAFTER...HI PRES
BUILDS IN AND AS A RESULT HAVE GONE WITH A FAIR FCST THRU WED.
THE ECMWF DOES HINT AT SOME RAIN TUE AS RESIDUAL CONVECTION GETS
ENTRAINED IN THE UPR RIDGE. THIS APPEARS TO BE A ROGUE SOLN ATTM
HOWEVER SO HAVE KEPT POPS BLW 15. DESPITE A DRY AIR MASS SUN-WED
WITH PW GENERALLY AOB 1 INCH...THE HUMIDITY WILL NOT BE
PARTICULARLY LOW...ESPECIALLY AS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
ARRIVES...AS PERSISTENT SLY COMPONENT FLOW DRAWS LLVL MOISTURE
INTO THE CWA FROM THE ATLC. THIS COULD SET THE STAGE FOR SOME
BOUTS OF MRNG FOG IF WINDS ARE LGT ENOUGH. TEMPS THRU THE LONG
TERM CLOSE TO THE GMOS25 AND MAINLY AOB CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL TO THE S OF THE AREA TODAY AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

LIGHT NW-N FLOW WILL GIVE WAY TO SEA BREEZES AT THE COAST DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTN. COULD BE AN ISOLATED LATE DAY
SHOWER/TSTM NEAR THE NYC METRO TERMINALS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THU NIGHT...VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS.
.FRI...VFR WITH WINDS VEERING FROM THE NE TO THE ESE. SEA BREEZES
POSSIBLE.
.FRI NIGHT-SAT...LOW PRES WILL TRACK S OF THE REGION. IF THE LOW IS
CLOSE ENOUGH...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WITH -RA. WINDS GENERALLY NE
OR E.
.SAT NIGHT-MON...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS REMAIN AT 5 FT AT BUOY 44017 AND ARE CLOSER TO 4 FT AT THE
BUOYS TO THE WEST...SO SCAHS CONTINUES E OF MORICHES INLET.
THESE SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE BLW 5 FT BY DAYBREAK AS FLOW TURNS MORE
OFFSHORE AFTER A COLD FROPA.

SEAS WILL GET CLOSE TO 5 FT ON THE OCEAN ON SAT AS LOW PRES PASSES
TO THE S. ELSEWHERE...NE WINDS SHOULD BE IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL THEN LIKELY REMAIN BLW SCA LVLS SUN-WED AS A
BROAD AREA OF HI PRES SETTLES IN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT PCPN NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A FULL MOON...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 3/4 TO 1 1/2 FT ARE
NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED AT THE
PEAK OF THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDES THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
MINOR BENCHMARKS COULD BRIEFLY BE TOUCHED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE
BAYS OF NASSAU COUNTY THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY
     THIS MORNING FOR ANZ350.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JMC/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...JMC/GOODMAN
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...24
MARINE...JMC/GOODMAN
HYDROLOGY...JMC/GOODMAN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...GOODMAN/NV



000
FXUS61 KOKX 020618
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
218 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH OVERNIGHT. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH WILL LINGER ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN
FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AND REMAIN THROUGH TUESDAY AS
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE PASS TO THE SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...AND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR
70 IN MIDTOWN NYC...TO THE 60S MOST ELSEWHERE...TO SOME UPPER 50S
IN THE VALLEYS OF ORANGE COUNTY AND IN THE LONG ISLAND PINE
BARRENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD STALL NOT TOO FAR OFF TO THE SOUTH ON
THU...WHILE A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH LINGERS. EXPECT MAINLY DRY
CONDS...THOUGH COULD SEE AN ISOLD SHOWER OR TSTM DEVELOP LATE
TODAY IN/NEAR NE NJ IN POCKET OF INSTABILITY/BLYR MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES.
ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP COULD DRIFT E TOWARD NYC NEAR OR
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.

HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE A COUPLE DEG COOLER THAN THOSE OF
YESTERDAY...MAINLY LOWER AND MID 80S...BUT UPPER 70S ALONG MOST
SOUTH-FACING SHORELINES AND IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE WEAK ENOUGH TO ALLOW SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT...THOUGH NOT NEARLY AS STRONG AS THE PAST COUPLE
OF DAYS.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD START TO BUILD FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT...
WITH N-NE FLOW AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. AS A RESULT LOWS WILL BE A
COOLER LOWER/MID 60S IN MOST PLACES...AND 55-60 ACROSS THE
INTERIOR VALLEYS WELL NORTH/WEST OF NYC.

THERE IS A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK AT THE OCEAN BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY WITH SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE TROUGH. THE UPPER
TROUGH WEAKENS SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY AS RIDGING
BUILDS OVER THE AREA. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE ONE WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE
NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD MAY REACH LONG ISLAND.
AT THIS TIME WILL KEEP JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS EASTERN LONG
ISLAND AS THE WAVE PASSES. ANOTHER WAVE PASSES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. HOWEVER WITH RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION THIS WAVE WILL BE
FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA. TUESDAY
THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OFFSHORE AS A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIGS INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. A WEAK SHORTWAVE COULD BRING
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY WILL BE POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE AT THIS
TIME. WEDNESDAY A STRONGER SHORTWAVE ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL TO THE S OF THE AREA TODAY AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

LIGHT NW-N FLOW WILL GIVE WAY TO SEA BREEZES AT THE COAST DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTN. COULD BE AN ISOLATED LATE DAY
SHOWER/TSTM NEAR THE NYC METRO TERMINALS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THU NIGHT...VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS.
.FRI...VFR WITH WINDS VEERING FROM THE NE TO THE ESE. SEA BREEZES
POSSIBLE.
.FRI NIGHT-SAT...LOW PRES WILL TRACK S OF THE REGION. IF THE LOW IS
CLOSE ENOUGH...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WITH -RA. WINDS GENERALLY NE
OR E.
.SAT NIGHT-MON...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS REMAIN AT 5 FT AT BUOY 44017 AND ARE CLOSER TO 4 FT AT THE
BUOYS TO THE WEST...SO SCAHS CONTINUES E OF MORICHES INLET.
THESE SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE BLW 5 FT BY DAYBREAK.

A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE ACROSS THE WATERS THU THROUGH
MON. GENERALLY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE WATERS...WITH ONE
LOW PASSING TO THE SOUTH FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...AND ANOTHER LOW
PASSING SOUTH SLOWLY FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH FULL MOON...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 3/4 TO 1 1/2 FT ARE
NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED AT THE
PEAK OF THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDES THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
MINOR BENCHMARKS COULD BRIEFLY BE TOUCHED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE
BAYS OF NASSAU COUNTY THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY
     THIS MORNING FOR ANZ350.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KOKX 020618
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
218 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH OVERNIGHT. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH WILL LINGER ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN
FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AND REMAIN THROUGH TUESDAY AS
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE PASS TO THE SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...AND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR
70 IN MIDTOWN NYC...TO THE 60S MOST ELSEWHERE...TO SOME UPPER 50S
IN THE VALLEYS OF ORANGE COUNTY AND IN THE LONG ISLAND PINE
BARRENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD STALL NOT TOO FAR OFF TO THE SOUTH ON
THU...WHILE A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH LINGERS. EXPECT MAINLY DRY
CONDS...THOUGH COULD SEE AN ISOLD SHOWER OR TSTM DEVELOP LATE
TODAY IN/NEAR NE NJ IN POCKET OF INSTABILITY/BLYR MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES.
ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP COULD DRIFT E TOWARD NYC NEAR OR
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.

HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE A COUPLE DEG COOLER THAN THOSE OF
YESTERDAY...MAINLY LOWER AND MID 80S...BUT UPPER 70S ALONG MOST
SOUTH-FACING SHORELINES AND IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE WEAK ENOUGH TO ALLOW SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT...THOUGH NOT NEARLY AS STRONG AS THE PAST COUPLE
OF DAYS.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD START TO BUILD FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT...
WITH N-NE FLOW AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. AS A RESULT LOWS WILL BE A
COOLER LOWER/MID 60S IN MOST PLACES...AND 55-60 ACROSS THE
INTERIOR VALLEYS WELL NORTH/WEST OF NYC.

THERE IS A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK AT THE OCEAN BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY WITH SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE TROUGH. THE UPPER
TROUGH WEAKENS SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY AS RIDGING
BUILDS OVER THE AREA. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE ONE WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE
NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD MAY REACH LONG ISLAND.
AT THIS TIME WILL KEEP JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS EASTERN LONG
ISLAND AS THE WAVE PASSES. ANOTHER WAVE PASSES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. HOWEVER WITH RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION THIS WAVE WILL BE
FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA. TUESDAY
THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OFFSHORE AS A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIGS INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. A WEAK SHORTWAVE COULD BRING
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY WILL BE POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE AT THIS
TIME. WEDNESDAY A STRONGER SHORTWAVE ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL TO THE S OF THE AREA TODAY AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

LIGHT NW-N FLOW WILL GIVE WAY TO SEA BREEZES AT THE COAST DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTN. COULD BE AN ISOLATED LATE DAY
SHOWER/TSTM NEAR THE NYC METRO TERMINALS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THU NIGHT...VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS.
.FRI...VFR WITH WINDS VEERING FROM THE NE TO THE ESE. SEA BREEZES
POSSIBLE.
.FRI NIGHT-SAT...LOW PRES WILL TRACK S OF THE REGION. IF THE LOW IS
CLOSE ENOUGH...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WITH -RA. WINDS GENERALLY NE
OR E.
.SAT NIGHT-MON...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS REMAIN AT 5 FT AT BUOY 44017 AND ARE CLOSER TO 4 FT AT THE
BUOYS TO THE WEST...SO SCAHS CONTINUES E OF MORICHES INLET.
THESE SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE BLW 5 FT BY DAYBREAK.

A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE ACROSS THE WATERS THU THROUGH
MON. GENERALLY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE WATERS...WITH ONE
LOW PASSING TO THE SOUTH FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...AND ANOTHER LOW
PASSING SOUTH SLOWLY FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH FULL MOON...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 3/4 TO 1 1/2 FT ARE
NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED AT THE
PEAK OF THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDES THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
MINOR BENCHMARKS COULD BRIEFLY BE TOUCHED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE
BAYS OF NASSAU COUNTY THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY
     THIS MORNING FOR ANZ350.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KALY 020517
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
117 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AA COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST THIS
EVENING AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEHIND TO BUILD IN. EXPECTING DRY
WEATHER ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND 5
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AS WE HEAD INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 115 AM EDT...SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR FOR AREAS SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHY CLOUDS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES. MORE CLOUDS...AND EVEN ISOLATED
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.

WE EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE A BIT MORE IN AREAL COVERAGE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN
MTNS AND BERKSHIRES THROUGH DAYBREAK...AS SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
UPSTREAM BECOMES TRAPPED BENEATH A LOWERING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.
ALSO...HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY STREAM EAST FROM
THE GREAT LAKES REGION CLOSER TO DAYBREAK. ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS MAY BRIEFLY EXPAND INTO SW VT...BEFORE
DISSIPATING AFTER 3-5 AM.

TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...BRINING A COUPLE DAYS OF DRY AND PLEASANTLY WARM WEATHER
AS WE HEAD TO THE EARLY PART OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

H850 TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE CLOSE TO +10C. THIS WILL YIELD TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING 75 TO 80 IN THE
VALLEYS...70-75 HIGHER TERRAIN.

UNDER A MAINLY CLEAR SKY...LIGHT OR NO WIND...TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL ON BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. LOOK FOR LOWS DOWN INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 40S AREAS WELL NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGIONS...AND
SHELTERED MOUNTAIN VALLEYS EVEN INTO THE CATSKILLS. THERE COULD BE
SOME COLDER POCKETS BOTTOMING OUT CLOSE TO 40. LOWS WILL BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 50S IN THE HUDSON AND MOHAWK VALLEYS FROM ALBANY
SOUTHWARD.

THERE WILL BE FEW-SCT CU FORMING IN THE VALLEYS EACH AFTERNOON...AND
SCT-BKN CU ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AT WORST...THERE COULD BE A
AFTERNOON MOUNTAIN SPRINKLE...BUT OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY. A
NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 10-15 MPH...GUSTING TO 25 MPH ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN/MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE CAPITAL REGION ON
THURSDAY. ON FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...THE WIND
VARIABLE GENERALLY UNDER 10 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH AND PASS OVER THE REGION
THIS WEEKEND. THIS ONE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN PROGRESSIVE AND
POSITIVELY TILTED. MODELS INDICATE WEAK FORCING WITH LIMITED
INSTABILITY WITH CHANCES FOR DEVELOPMENT ANY STORMS LIMITED TO THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST. SHOULD BE SEASONABLE WARM MAINLY
IN THE 70S.

GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH HEIGHTS RISES SUNDAY
AND RIDGING BUILDING IN SUNDAY NIGHT AND DOMINATING INTO TUESDAY.
OUR NEXT CHANCES FOR RAIN/STORMS WILL COME AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND A WEAK LOW APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST ALONG THE COAST.

SUNDAY WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN SATURDAY AND MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES EVEN WARMER. HIGHS AT OR BIT ABOVE NORMAL
MAINLY IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.

IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ENDING
AT 06Z FRIDAY AS A RESULT CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AND
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT. WITH THE GROUND WET/DAMP IN MANY LOCATIONS
SOME MVFR FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM. ANY LINGERING FOG WILL BURN OFF
AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL TODAY. WESTERLY WINDS OF LESS
THAN 10 KTS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT
KGFL. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK... THU NIGHT-MON: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THERE WILL ONE MORE ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH. THEN...A DRYING
TREND WILL FINALLY SET IN AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN. A
BREEZE WILL KICK IN FROM THE NORTHWEST 5-10 MPH TONIGHT...10-15
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH ON THURSDAY. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO THE
30S IN THE VALLEYS...40S HIGHER TERRAIN BY AFTERNOON.

A FULL RECOVERY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH NEAR 100 PERCENT HUMIDITY AND
LOTS OF DEW. ANOTHER DRY MAINLY SUNNY DAY FRIDAY WITH FAIRLY LOW
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES ALONG WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

A COLD FRONT MIGHT TOUCH OFF A LONE SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
SATURDAY...OTHERWISE IT LOOKS DRY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE RAIN THIS MORNING DID PRODUCE SOME RISE ON MAINLY SMALLER
CREEKS THIS MORNING IN OUR SOUTHERN HSA. RADAR ESTIMATED THAT OVER
TWO INCHES OF RAIN FELL NEAR THE ROUNDABOUT BASIN.

THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION SAW AN INCH OR LESS OF RAINFALL WITH
LITTLE OR NO EFFECT ON OTHER WATERSHEDS.

ONE MORE ROUND OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING...GENERALLY PRODUCING AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL OF A QUARTER
INCH OR LESS.

THEN...A DRYING TREND WILL UNFOLD WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
FOR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS (OUTSIDE OF A LOW CHANCE OF PASSING
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ON SATURDAY).


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV/KL
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA/11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV



000
FXUS61 KALY 020517
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
117 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AA COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST THIS
EVENING AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEHIND TO BUILD IN. EXPECTING DRY
WEATHER ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND 5
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AS WE HEAD INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 115 AM EDT...SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR FOR AREAS SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHY CLOUDS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES. MORE CLOUDS...AND EVEN ISOLATED
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.

WE EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE A BIT MORE IN AREAL COVERAGE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN
MTNS AND BERKSHIRES THROUGH DAYBREAK...AS SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
UPSTREAM BECOMES TRAPPED BENEATH A LOWERING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.
ALSO...HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY STREAM EAST FROM
THE GREAT LAKES REGION CLOSER TO DAYBREAK. ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS MAY BRIEFLY EXPAND INTO SW VT...BEFORE
DISSIPATING AFTER 3-5 AM.

TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...BRINING A COUPLE DAYS OF DRY AND PLEASANTLY WARM WEATHER
AS WE HEAD TO THE EARLY PART OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

H850 TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE CLOSE TO +10C. THIS WILL YIELD TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING 75 TO 80 IN THE
VALLEYS...70-75 HIGHER TERRAIN.

UNDER A MAINLY CLEAR SKY...LIGHT OR NO WIND...TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL ON BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. LOOK FOR LOWS DOWN INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 40S AREAS WELL NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGIONS...AND
SHELTERED MOUNTAIN VALLEYS EVEN INTO THE CATSKILLS. THERE COULD BE
SOME COLDER POCKETS BOTTOMING OUT CLOSE TO 40. LOWS WILL BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 50S IN THE HUDSON AND MOHAWK VALLEYS FROM ALBANY
SOUTHWARD.

THERE WILL BE FEW-SCT CU FORMING IN THE VALLEYS EACH AFTERNOON...AND
SCT-BKN CU ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AT WORST...THERE COULD BE A
AFTERNOON MOUNTAIN SPRINKLE...BUT OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY. A
NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 10-15 MPH...GUSTING TO 25 MPH ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN/MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE CAPITAL REGION ON
THURSDAY. ON FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...THE WIND
VARIABLE GENERALLY UNDER 10 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH AND PASS OVER THE REGION
THIS WEEKEND. THIS ONE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN PROGRESSIVE AND
POSITIVELY TILTED. MODELS INDICATE WEAK FORCING WITH LIMITED
INSTABILITY WITH CHANCES FOR DEVELOPMENT ANY STORMS LIMITED TO THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST. SHOULD BE SEASONABLE WARM MAINLY
IN THE 70S.

GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH HEIGHTS RISES SUNDAY
AND RIDGING BUILDING IN SUNDAY NIGHT AND DOMINATING INTO TUESDAY.
OUR NEXT CHANCES FOR RAIN/STORMS WILL COME AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND A WEAK LOW APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST ALONG THE COAST.

SUNDAY WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN SATURDAY AND MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES EVEN WARMER. HIGHS AT OR BIT ABOVE NORMAL
MAINLY IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.

IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ENDING
AT 06Z FRIDAY AS A RESULT CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AND
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT. WITH THE GROUND WET/DAMP IN MANY LOCATIONS
SOME MVFR FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM. ANY LINGERING FOG WILL BURN OFF
AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL TODAY. WESTERLY WINDS OF LESS
THAN 10 KTS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT
KGFL. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK... THU NIGHT-MON: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THERE WILL ONE MORE ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH. THEN...A DRYING
TREND WILL FINALLY SET IN AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN. A
BREEZE WILL KICK IN FROM THE NORTHWEST 5-10 MPH TONIGHT...10-15
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH ON THURSDAY. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO THE
30S IN THE VALLEYS...40S HIGHER TERRAIN BY AFTERNOON.

A FULL RECOVERY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH NEAR 100 PERCENT HUMIDITY AND
LOTS OF DEW. ANOTHER DRY MAINLY SUNNY DAY FRIDAY WITH FAIRLY LOW
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES ALONG WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

A COLD FRONT MIGHT TOUCH OFF A LONE SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
SATURDAY...OTHERWISE IT LOOKS DRY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE RAIN THIS MORNING DID PRODUCE SOME RISE ON MAINLY SMALLER
CREEKS THIS MORNING IN OUR SOUTHERN HSA. RADAR ESTIMATED THAT OVER
TWO INCHES OF RAIN FELL NEAR THE ROUNDABOUT BASIN.

THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION SAW AN INCH OR LESS OF RAINFALL WITH
LITTLE OR NO EFFECT ON OTHER WATERSHEDS.

ONE MORE ROUND OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING...GENERALLY PRODUCING AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL OF A QUARTER
INCH OR LESS.

THEN...A DRYING TREND WILL UNFOLD WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
FOR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS (OUTSIDE OF A LOW CHANCE OF PASSING
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ON SATURDAY).


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV/KL
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA/11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV




000
FXUS61 KALY 020517
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
117 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AA COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST THIS
EVENING AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEHIND TO BUILD IN. EXPECTING DRY
WEATHER ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND 5
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AS WE HEAD INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 115 AM EDT...SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR FOR AREAS SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHY CLOUDS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES. MORE CLOUDS...AND EVEN ISOLATED
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.

WE EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE A BIT MORE IN AREAL COVERAGE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN
MTNS AND BERKSHIRES THROUGH DAYBREAK...AS SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
UPSTREAM BECOMES TRAPPED BENEATH A LOWERING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.
ALSO...HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY STREAM EAST FROM
THE GREAT LAKES REGION CLOSER TO DAYBREAK. ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS MAY BRIEFLY EXPAND INTO SW VT...BEFORE
DISSIPATING AFTER 3-5 AM.

TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...BRINING A COUPLE DAYS OF DRY AND PLEASANTLY WARM WEATHER
AS WE HEAD TO THE EARLY PART OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

H850 TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE CLOSE TO +10C. THIS WILL YIELD TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING 75 TO 80 IN THE
VALLEYS...70-75 HIGHER TERRAIN.

UNDER A MAINLY CLEAR SKY...LIGHT OR NO WIND...TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL ON BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. LOOK FOR LOWS DOWN INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 40S AREAS WELL NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGIONS...AND
SHELTERED MOUNTAIN VALLEYS EVEN INTO THE CATSKILLS. THERE COULD BE
SOME COLDER POCKETS BOTTOMING OUT CLOSE TO 40. LOWS WILL BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 50S IN THE HUDSON AND MOHAWK VALLEYS FROM ALBANY
SOUTHWARD.

THERE WILL BE FEW-SCT CU FORMING IN THE VALLEYS EACH AFTERNOON...AND
SCT-BKN CU ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AT WORST...THERE COULD BE A
AFTERNOON MOUNTAIN SPRINKLE...BUT OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY. A
NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 10-15 MPH...GUSTING TO 25 MPH ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN/MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE CAPITAL REGION ON
THURSDAY. ON FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...THE WIND
VARIABLE GENERALLY UNDER 10 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH AND PASS OVER THE REGION
THIS WEEKEND. THIS ONE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN PROGRESSIVE AND
POSITIVELY TILTED. MODELS INDICATE WEAK FORCING WITH LIMITED
INSTABILITY WITH CHANCES FOR DEVELOPMENT ANY STORMS LIMITED TO THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST. SHOULD BE SEASONABLE WARM MAINLY
IN THE 70S.

GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH HEIGHTS RISES SUNDAY
AND RIDGING BUILDING IN SUNDAY NIGHT AND DOMINATING INTO TUESDAY.
OUR NEXT CHANCES FOR RAIN/STORMS WILL COME AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND A WEAK LOW APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST ALONG THE COAST.

SUNDAY WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN SATURDAY AND MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES EVEN WARMER. HIGHS AT OR BIT ABOVE NORMAL
MAINLY IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.

IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ENDING
AT 06Z FRIDAY AS A RESULT CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AND
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT. WITH THE GROUND WET/DAMP IN MANY LOCATIONS
SOME MVFR FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM. ANY LINGERING FOG WILL BURN OFF
AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL TODAY. WESTERLY WINDS OF LESS
THAN 10 KTS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT
KGFL. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK... THU NIGHT-MON: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THERE WILL ONE MORE ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH. THEN...A DRYING
TREND WILL FINALLY SET IN AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN. A
BREEZE WILL KICK IN FROM THE NORTHWEST 5-10 MPH TONIGHT...10-15
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH ON THURSDAY. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO THE
30S IN THE VALLEYS...40S HIGHER TERRAIN BY AFTERNOON.

A FULL RECOVERY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH NEAR 100 PERCENT HUMIDITY AND
LOTS OF DEW. ANOTHER DRY MAINLY SUNNY DAY FRIDAY WITH FAIRLY LOW
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES ALONG WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

A COLD FRONT MIGHT TOUCH OFF A LONE SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
SATURDAY...OTHERWISE IT LOOKS DRY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE RAIN THIS MORNING DID PRODUCE SOME RISE ON MAINLY SMALLER
CREEKS THIS MORNING IN OUR SOUTHERN HSA. RADAR ESTIMATED THAT OVER
TWO INCHES OF RAIN FELL NEAR THE ROUNDABOUT BASIN.

THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION SAW AN INCH OR LESS OF RAINFALL WITH
LITTLE OR NO EFFECT ON OTHER WATERSHEDS.

ONE MORE ROUND OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING...GENERALLY PRODUCING AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL OF A QUARTER
INCH OR LESS.

THEN...A DRYING TREND WILL UNFOLD WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
FOR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS (OUTSIDE OF A LOW CHANCE OF PASSING
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ON SATURDAY).


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV/KL
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA/11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV



000
FXUS61 KALY 020517
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
117 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AA COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST THIS
EVENING AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEHIND TO BUILD IN. EXPECTING DRY
WEATHER ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND 5
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AS WE HEAD INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 115 AM EDT...SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR FOR AREAS SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHY CLOUDS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES. MORE CLOUDS...AND EVEN ISOLATED
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.

WE EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE A BIT MORE IN AREAL COVERAGE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN
MTNS AND BERKSHIRES THROUGH DAYBREAK...AS SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
UPSTREAM BECOMES TRAPPED BENEATH A LOWERING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.
ALSO...HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY STREAM EAST FROM
THE GREAT LAKES REGION CLOSER TO DAYBREAK. ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS MAY BRIEFLY EXPAND INTO SW VT...BEFORE
DISSIPATING AFTER 3-5 AM.

TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...BRINING A COUPLE DAYS OF DRY AND PLEASANTLY WARM WEATHER
AS WE HEAD TO THE EARLY PART OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

H850 TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE CLOSE TO +10C. THIS WILL YIELD TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING 75 TO 80 IN THE
VALLEYS...70-75 HIGHER TERRAIN.

UNDER A MAINLY CLEAR SKY...LIGHT OR NO WIND...TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL ON BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. LOOK FOR LOWS DOWN INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 40S AREAS WELL NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGIONS...AND
SHELTERED MOUNTAIN VALLEYS EVEN INTO THE CATSKILLS. THERE COULD BE
SOME COLDER POCKETS BOTTOMING OUT CLOSE TO 40. LOWS WILL BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 50S IN THE HUDSON AND MOHAWK VALLEYS FROM ALBANY
SOUTHWARD.

THERE WILL BE FEW-SCT CU FORMING IN THE VALLEYS EACH AFTERNOON...AND
SCT-BKN CU ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AT WORST...THERE COULD BE A
AFTERNOON MOUNTAIN SPRINKLE...BUT OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY. A
NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 10-15 MPH...GUSTING TO 25 MPH ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN/MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE CAPITAL REGION ON
THURSDAY. ON FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...THE WIND
VARIABLE GENERALLY UNDER 10 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH AND PASS OVER THE REGION
THIS WEEKEND. THIS ONE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN PROGRESSIVE AND
POSITIVELY TILTED. MODELS INDICATE WEAK FORCING WITH LIMITED
INSTABILITY WITH CHANCES FOR DEVELOPMENT ANY STORMS LIMITED TO THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST. SHOULD BE SEASONABLE WARM MAINLY
IN THE 70S.

GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH HEIGHTS RISES SUNDAY
AND RIDGING BUILDING IN SUNDAY NIGHT AND DOMINATING INTO TUESDAY.
OUR NEXT CHANCES FOR RAIN/STORMS WILL COME AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND A WEAK LOW APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST ALONG THE COAST.

SUNDAY WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN SATURDAY AND MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES EVEN WARMER. HIGHS AT OR BIT ABOVE NORMAL
MAINLY IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.

IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ENDING
AT 06Z FRIDAY AS A RESULT CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AND
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT. WITH THE GROUND WET/DAMP IN MANY LOCATIONS
SOME MVFR FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM. ANY LINGERING FOG WILL BURN OFF
AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL TODAY. WESTERLY WINDS OF LESS
THAN 10 KTS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT
KGFL. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK... THU NIGHT-MON: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THERE WILL ONE MORE ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH. THEN...A DRYING
TREND WILL FINALLY SET IN AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN. A
BREEZE WILL KICK IN FROM THE NORTHWEST 5-10 MPH TONIGHT...10-15
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH ON THURSDAY. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO THE
30S IN THE VALLEYS...40S HIGHER TERRAIN BY AFTERNOON.

A FULL RECOVERY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH NEAR 100 PERCENT HUMIDITY AND
LOTS OF DEW. ANOTHER DRY MAINLY SUNNY DAY FRIDAY WITH FAIRLY LOW
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES ALONG WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

A COLD FRONT MIGHT TOUCH OFF A LONE SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
SATURDAY...OTHERWISE IT LOOKS DRY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE RAIN THIS MORNING DID PRODUCE SOME RISE ON MAINLY SMALLER
CREEKS THIS MORNING IN OUR SOUTHERN HSA. RADAR ESTIMATED THAT OVER
TWO INCHES OF RAIN FELL NEAR THE ROUNDABOUT BASIN.

THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION SAW AN INCH OR LESS OF RAINFALL WITH
LITTLE OR NO EFFECT ON OTHER WATERSHEDS.

ONE MORE ROUND OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING...GENERALLY PRODUCING AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL OF A QUARTER
INCH OR LESS.

THEN...A DRYING TREND WILL UNFOLD WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
FOR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS (OUTSIDE OF A LOW CHANCE OF PASSING
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ON SATURDAY).


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV/KL
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA/11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV




000
FXUS61 KBOX 020255
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1055 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT STALLING NEAR THE
SOUTH COAST THURSDAY...BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT.
ASIDE FROM A FEW SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT OVER THE
CAPE AND ISLANDS...MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
1050 PM UPDATE...
CONVECTION DIMINISHING IN INTENSITY THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WAS
JUST ABOUT TO REACH THE NORTH SHORE. FROM THERE...IT EXTENDED
THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL MA INTO EASTERN CT. MAIN CONCERN FOR THE
REST OF TONIGHT WILL BE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AND STRATUS, JUST ABOUT
ALL AREAS SAW SOME RAINFALL TODAY...MAKING FOG DEVELOPMENT MORE
LIKELY.

TWEAKED THE ONGOING FORECAST TO REFLECT THE LATEST OBSERVED
TRENDS. FORECAST REMAINS GENERALLY ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS OR A TSTM WILL QUICKLY END THIS
EVENING...OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY MOVING INTO SNE TONIGHT BUT LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND DEPARTING SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER.
PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...
WEAK COLD FRONT STALLS NEAR THE COAST BUT THE COLUMN IS FAIRLY DRY
WITH LIMITED TO NO INSTABILITY. THIS WILL RESULT IN PT-MOSUNNY
SKIES. EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS ACK WHERE CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
AND THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR A SHOWER LATE IN THE DAY AS AREA OF
MOISTURE MOVES UP FROM THE S AHEAD OF WEAK FRONTAL WAVE. MAX
TEMPS WILL REACH INTO THE LOWER 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST...BUT
SEABREEZES WILL HOLD TEMPS IN THE 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

THURSDAY NIGHT...
WEAK BOUNDARY SLIDES TO THE SOUTH AS WAVE OF LOW PRES TRACKS NEAR
THE BENCHMARK. BULK OF RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN TO THE SOUTH...BUT
THERE IS MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS THAT SOME RAIN WILL AFFECT THE
ISLANDS AND POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF CAPE COD. HAVE CHC POPS FOR NOW.
REST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY. LOW TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 50S...EXCEPT
LOWER 60S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
* LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER MAINLY ON THE 4TH.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SHIFT
IN THE OVERALL PATTERN FROM A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED REGIME TO ONE THAT IS
MORE PROGRESSIVE AND ZONAL.  THIS IS IN SPITE OF THE FAIRLY ROBUST
RIDGES IN PLACE ACROSS THE E PACIFIC AND THE BERMUDA HIGH N OF THE
ANTILLES.  ALTHOUGH THIS MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN DOES TAKE ON A
LONGWAVE TROF FEATURE BETWEEN THE TWO RIDGES...IT IS NOT OVERLY
DEEP/SHARP.  THIS ALLOWS THE RIDGING ASSOCIATED WITH THE BERMUDA
HIGH TO BECOME THE DOMINANT PLAYER FOR OUR SENSIBLE WX INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.  AT THIS POINT A MUCH DEEPER NRN STREAM VORTEX WILL BE
IN PLAY...AND WILL TRANSITION THE DRIER AND MORE STABLE REGIME
ACROSS THE NE CONUS TO A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN.  THE ONLY FLY IN
THE OINTMENT IS ON THE 4TH UNFORTUNATELY...BUT MORE ON THAT BELOW.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE...IT/S NOT
JUST RIDGING...BUT WEAK SHORTWAVES TO CONCERN OURSELVES WITH. MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THE EARLY WEEKEND. THE OVERALL COLUMN IS RELATIVELY
DRY...WITH PWATS NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY. HOWEVER...WITH THE
FRONT STALLED TO THE SOUTH...THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK WAVE OF LOW
PRES COULD BRING ABOUT MODEST LIFT ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON
PRECIP CHANCES...BUT IT IS LIKELY TO NOT BE A WASHOUT GIVEN HOW WEAK
THE WAVE IS AND THE LACK OF MOISTURE. JUST A FEW PASSING SHOWERS TO
CONTEND WITH.

OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES RUN JUST BELOW TO NEAR NORMAL FOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WITH PLEASANT...DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

SUN INTO MON...AS DEEP ER WAVE FORMS ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE
LANDS...A SECONDARY RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY IN RESPONSE TO WARM ADVECTION
FROM THE BERMUDA HIGH TO THE SE. THIS WILL YIELD ANOTHER PERIOD OF
DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND. BETTER CHANCES
FOR TEMPS INCHING ABOVE NORMAL DURING THIS STRETCH...THANKS TO MORE
INFLUENCE FROM THE SE.

TOWARD MID WEEK...THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE WILL BEGIN A SLIDE TO
THE E. THIS PARTICULAR FEATURE IS MORE ROBUST THAN PREVIOUS
WAVES...SO IT/S LIKELY A PERIOD OF WETTER AND UNSETTLED WX WILL
RETURN BY THE MID PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. UNCERTAINTY IN EXACT
TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY
RESULT IN BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR. BUT
PATCHY MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPING.

THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. BUT MVFR CIGS/VSBYS MAY DEVELOP OVER
ACK LATE IN THE DAY ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF A FEW SHOWERS.

THU NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR...BUT AREAS OF MVFR/IFR
POSSIBLE CAPE/ISLANDS. SHOWERS LIKELY FOR ACK POSSIBLY REACHING
THE S COAST AND CAPE COD.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON SAT...BUT
MAINLY DRY OTHERWISE. SEA BREEZES LIKELY MOST DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THROUGH TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. 5 TO 6 FT SEAS EXPECTED OVER
OPEN SOUTH COASTAL WATERS...SO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL
PERSIST OVER THESE WATERS FOR A WHILE LONGER.

THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY LIGHT SW WINDS BECOMING LOCALLY
ONSHORE OVER NEARSHORE WATERS AS SEABREEZES DEVELOP. SEAS
GRADUALLY SUBSIDING BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS OVER SOUTHERN WATERS.
SHOWERS POSSIBLE S AND E OF ACK LATE IN THE DAY.

THU NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOMING
NORTH. SEAS BELOW SCA. VSBYS REDUCED IN SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG S
OF CAPE COD AND ESPECIALLY S AND E OF ACK.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF
THIS PERIOD.  THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ255-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ235-237.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...BELK/KJC/RLG
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DOODY/RLG
AVIATION...BELK/KJC/DOODY/RLG
MARINE...BELK/KJC/DOODY/RLG



000
FXUS61 KBOX 020255
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1055 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT STALLING NEAR THE
SOUTH COAST THURSDAY...BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT.
ASIDE FROM A FEW SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT OVER THE
CAPE AND ISLANDS...MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
1050 PM UPDATE...
CONVECTION DIMINISHING IN INTENSITY THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WAS
JUST ABOUT TO REACH THE NORTH SHORE. FROM THERE...IT EXTENDED
THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL MA INTO EASTERN CT. MAIN CONCERN FOR THE
REST OF TONIGHT WILL BE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AND STRATUS, JUST ABOUT
ALL AREAS SAW SOME RAINFALL TODAY...MAKING FOG DEVELOPMENT MORE
LIKELY.

TWEAKED THE ONGOING FORECAST TO REFLECT THE LATEST OBSERVED
TRENDS. FORECAST REMAINS GENERALLY ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS OR A TSTM WILL QUICKLY END THIS
EVENING...OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY MOVING INTO SNE TONIGHT BUT LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND DEPARTING SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER.
PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...
WEAK COLD FRONT STALLS NEAR THE COAST BUT THE COLUMN IS FAIRLY DRY
WITH LIMITED TO NO INSTABILITY. THIS WILL RESULT IN PT-MOSUNNY
SKIES. EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS ACK WHERE CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
AND THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR A SHOWER LATE IN THE DAY AS AREA OF
MOISTURE MOVES UP FROM THE S AHEAD OF WEAK FRONTAL WAVE. MAX
TEMPS WILL REACH INTO THE LOWER 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST...BUT
SEABREEZES WILL HOLD TEMPS IN THE 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

THURSDAY NIGHT...
WEAK BOUNDARY SLIDES TO THE SOUTH AS WAVE OF LOW PRES TRACKS NEAR
THE BENCHMARK. BULK OF RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN TO THE SOUTH...BUT
THERE IS MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS THAT SOME RAIN WILL AFFECT THE
ISLANDS AND POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF CAPE COD. HAVE CHC POPS FOR NOW.
REST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY. LOW TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 50S...EXCEPT
LOWER 60S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
* LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER MAINLY ON THE 4TH.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SHIFT
IN THE OVERALL PATTERN FROM A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED REGIME TO ONE THAT IS
MORE PROGRESSIVE AND ZONAL.  THIS IS IN SPITE OF THE FAIRLY ROBUST
RIDGES IN PLACE ACROSS THE E PACIFIC AND THE BERMUDA HIGH N OF THE
ANTILLES.  ALTHOUGH THIS MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN DOES TAKE ON A
LONGWAVE TROF FEATURE BETWEEN THE TWO RIDGES...IT IS NOT OVERLY
DEEP/SHARP.  THIS ALLOWS THE RIDGING ASSOCIATED WITH THE BERMUDA
HIGH TO BECOME THE DOMINANT PLAYER FOR OUR SENSIBLE WX INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.  AT THIS POINT A MUCH DEEPER NRN STREAM VORTEX WILL BE
IN PLAY...AND WILL TRANSITION THE DRIER AND MORE STABLE REGIME
ACROSS THE NE CONUS TO A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN.  THE ONLY FLY IN
THE OINTMENT IS ON THE 4TH UNFORTUNATELY...BUT MORE ON THAT BELOW.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE...IT/S NOT
JUST RIDGING...BUT WEAK SHORTWAVES TO CONCERN OURSELVES WITH. MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THE EARLY WEEKEND. THE OVERALL COLUMN IS RELATIVELY
DRY...WITH PWATS NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY. HOWEVER...WITH THE
FRONT STALLED TO THE SOUTH...THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK WAVE OF LOW
PRES COULD BRING ABOUT MODEST LIFT ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON
PRECIP CHANCES...BUT IT IS LIKELY TO NOT BE A WASHOUT GIVEN HOW WEAK
THE WAVE IS AND THE LACK OF MOISTURE. JUST A FEW PASSING SHOWERS TO
CONTEND WITH.

OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES RUN JUST BELOW TO NEAR NORMAL FOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WITH PLEASANT...DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

SUN INTO MON...AS DEEP ER WAVE FORMS ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE
LANDS...A SECONDARY RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY IN RESPONSE TO WARM ADVECTION
FROM THE BERMUDA HIGH TO THE SE. THIS WILL YIELD ANOTHER PERIOD OF
DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND. BETTER CHANCES
FOR TEMPS INCHING ABOVE NORMAL DURING THIS STRETCH...THANKS TO MORE
INFLUENCE FROM THE SE.

TOWARD MID WEEK...THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE WILL BEGIN A SLIDE TO
THE E. THIS PARTICULAR FEATURE IS MORE ROBUST THAN PREVIOUS
WAVES...SO IT/S LIKELY A PERIOD OF WETTER AND UNSETTLED WX WILL
RETURN BY THE MID PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. UNCERTAINTY IN EXACT
TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY
RESULT IN BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR. BUT
PATCHY MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPING.

THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. BUT MVFR CIGS/VSBYS MAY DEVELOP OVER
ACK LATE IN THE DAY ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF A FEW SHOWERS.

THU NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR...BUT AREAS OF MVFR/IFR
POSSIBLE CAPE/ISLANDS. SHOWERS LIKELY FOR ACK POSSIBLY REACHING
THE S COAST AND CAPE COD.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON SAT...BUT
MAINLY DRY OTHERWISE. SEA BREEZES LIKELY MOST DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THROUGH TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. 5 TO 6 FT SEAS EXPECTED OVER
OPEN SOUTH COASTAL WATERS...SO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL
PERSIST OVER THESE WATERS FOR A WHILE LONGER.

THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY LIGHT SW WINDS BECOMING LOCALLY
ONSHORE OVER NEARSHORE WATERS AS SEABREEZES DEVELOP. SEAS
GRADUALLY SUBSIDING BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS OVER SOUTHERN WATERS.
SHOWERS POSSIBLE S AND E OF ACK LATE IN THE DAY.

THU NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOMING
NORTH. SEAS BELOW SCA. VSBYS REDUCED IN SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG S
OF CAPE COD AND ESPECIALLY S AND E OF ACK.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF
THIS PERIOD.  THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ255-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ235-237.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...BELK/KJC/RLG
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DOODY/RLG
AVIATION...BELK/KJC/DOODY/RLG
MARINE...BELK/KJC/DOODY/RLG




000
FXUS61 KOKX 020233
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1033 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND THEN SETTLES
JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD IN FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AND REMAIN THROUGH
TUESDAY AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE PASS TO THE SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY...AND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE REGION THIS
EVE...AND WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH LOSS
OF INSTABILITY...ISO SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED. WITH WEAK
CONVERGENCE AND NO REAL SUPPORT FOR ANY ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT...HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF ISO SHOWERS/STORMS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING.

SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM
NEAR 70 IN MIDTOWN NYC...TO THE 60S MOST ELSEWHERE...TO SOME UPPER
50S IN THE VALLEYS OF ORANGE COUNTY AND IN THE LONG ISLAND PINE
BARRENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD STALL NOT TOO FAR OFF TO THE SOUTH ON THU.
EXPECT DRY CONDS FOR THE MOST PART...THOUGH WITH AREA IN RIGHT
REAR QUAD OF UPPER JET EXPECT PLENTY OF HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS
MAINLY ACROSS NYC METRO AND LONG ISLAND. ENOUGH LATE DAY
INSTABILITY MAY ALSO BUILD FOR A LATE DAY SHOWER/TSTM IN/NEAR
NE NJ. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF TODAY...LOWER AND
MID 80S.

FLOW WILL BE WEAK ENOUGH TO ALLOW SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT...THOUGH
NOT NEARLY AS STRONG AS THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.

ONCE THE UPPER JET PASSES TO THE EAST LATE THU NIGHT...HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD START TO BUILD IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES...WITH N-NE
FLOW AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. AS A RESULT LOWS WILL BE A COOLER
LOWER/MID 60S IN MOST PLACES...AND 55-60 ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY WITH SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE TROUGH. THE UPPER
TROUGH WEAKENS SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY AS RIDGING
BUILDS OVER THE AREA. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE ONE WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE
NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD MAY REACH LONG ISLAND.
AT THIS TIME WILL KEEP JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS EASTERN LONG
ISLAND AS THE WAVE PASSES. ANOTHER WAVE PASSES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. HOWEVER WITH RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION THIS WAVE WILL BE
FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA. TUESDAY
THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OFFSHORE AS A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIGS INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. A WEAK SHORTWAVE COULD BRING
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY WILL BE POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE AT THIS
TIME. WEDNESDAY A STRONGER SHORTWAVE ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO
THE REGION ON THURSDAY.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

W-NW 5-10 KT WILL BECOME LGT/VRB BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

LIGHT WINDS IN THE MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZES AT 5-10 KT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 03Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THU NIGHT...VFR WITH DIMINISHING WINDS.
.FRI...VFR WITH WINDS VEERING FROM THE NE TO THE ESE. SEA BREEZES
POSSIBLE.
.FRI NIGHT-SAT...LOW PRES WILL TRACK S OF THE REGION. IF THE LOW IS
CLOSE ENOUGH...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WITH -RA. WINDS GENERALLY NE
OR E.
.SAT NIGHT-MON...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS HAVE BUILT TO 5 FT AT 44017 THIS EVENING SO THE SCA CONTINUES
E O MORICHES. HAVE NOTED SEAS BUILDING TO JUST ABOVE 4 FT BETWEEN
FIRE ISLAND INLET AND MORICHES INLET. SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW 5 FT
HERE...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO SEE IF
A SCA IS NEEDED FOR THE CENTRAL OCEAN.

A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS THU
THROUGH MON. GENERALLY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE
WATERS...WITH ONE LOW PASSING TO THE SOUTH FRI NIGHT INTO
SAT...AND ANOTHER LOW PASSING SOUTH SLOWLY FROM SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH FULL MOON...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 3/4 TO 1 1/2 FT ARE
NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED AT THE
PEAK OF THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDES THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
MINOR BENCHMARKS COULD BRIEFLY BE TOUCHED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE
BAYS OF NASSAU COUNTY THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/MET
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/DS
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...GOODMAN/MET
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KOKX 020233
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1033 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND THEN SETTLES
JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD IN FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AND REMAIN THROUGH
TUESDAY AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE PASS TO THE SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY...AND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE REGION THIS
EVE...AND WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH LOSS
OF INSTABILITY...ISO SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED. WITH WEAK
CONVERGENCE AND NO REAL SUPPORT FOR ANY ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT...HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF ISO SHOWERS/STORMS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING.

SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM
NEAR 70 IN MIDTOWN NYC...TO THE 60S MOST ELSEWHERE...TO SOME UPPER
50S IN THE VALLEYS OF ORANGE COUNTY AND IN THE LONG ISLAND PINE
BARRENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD STALL NOT TOO FAR OFF TO THE SOUTH ON THU.
EXPECT DRY CONDS FOR THE MOST PART...THOUGH WITH AREA IN RIGHT
REAR QUAD OF UPPER JET EXPECT PLENTY OF HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS
MAINLY ACROSS NYC METRO AND LONG ISLAND. ENOUGH LATE DAY
INSTABILITY MAY ALSO BUILD FOR A LATE DAY SHOWER/TSTM IN/NEAR
NE NJ. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF TODAY...LOWER AND
MID 80S.

FLOW WILL BE WEAK ENOUGH TO ALLOW SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT...THOUGH
NOT NEARLY AS STRONG AS THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.

ONCE THE UPPER JET PASSES TO THE EAST LATE THU NIGHT...HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD START TO BUILD IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES...WITH N-NE
FLOW AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. AS A RESULT LOWS WILL BE A COOLER
LOWER/MID 60S IN MOST PLACES...AND 55-60 ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY WITH SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE TROUGH. THE UPPER
TROUGH WEAKENS SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY AS RIDGING
BUILDS OVER THE AREA. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE ONE WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE
NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD MAY REACH LONG ISLAND.
AT THIS TIME WILL KEEP JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS EASTERN LONG
ISLAND AS THE WAVE PASSES. ANOTHER WAVE PASSES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. HOWEVER WITH RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION THIS WAVE WILL BE
FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA. TUESDAY
THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OFFSHORE AS A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIGS INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. A WEAK SHORTWAVE COULD BRING
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY WILL BE POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE AT THIS
TIME. WEDNESDAY A STRONGER SHORTWAVE ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO
THE REGION ON THURSDAY.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

W-NW 5-10 KT WILL BECOME LGT/VRB BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

LIGHT WINDS IN THE MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZES AT 5-10 KT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 03Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THU NIGHT...VFR WITH DIMINISHING WINDS.
.FRI...VFR WITH WINDS VEERING FROM THE NE TO THE ESE. SEA BREEZES
POSSIBLE.
.FRI NIGHT-SAT...LOW PRES WILL TRACK S OF THE REGION. IF THE LOW IS
CLOSE ENOUGH...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WITH -RA. WINDS GENERALLY NE
OR E.
.SAT NIGHT-MON...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS HAVE BUILT TO 5 FT AT 44017 THIS EVENING SO THE SCA CONTINUES
E O MORICHES. HAVE NOTED SEAS BUILDING TO JUST ABOVE 4 FT BETWEEN
FIRE ISLAND INLET AND MORICHES INLET. SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW 5 FT
HERE...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO SEE IF
A SCA IS NEEDED FOR THE CENTRAL OCEAN.

A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS THU
THROUGH MON. GENERALLY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE
WATERS...WITH ONE LOW PASSING TO THE SOUTH FRI NIGHT INTO
SAT...AND ANOTHER LOW PASSING SOUTH SLOWLY FROM SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH FULL MOON...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 3/4 TO 1 1/2 FT ARE
NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED AT THE
PEAK OF THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDES THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
MINOR BENCHMARKS COULD BRIEFLY BE TOUCHED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE
BAYS OF NASSAU COUNTY THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/MET
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/DS
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...GOODMAN/MET
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KOKX 020233
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1033 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND THEN SETTLES
JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD IN FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AND REMAIN THROUGH
TUESDAY AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE PASS TO THE SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY...AND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE REGION THIS
EVE...AND WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH LOSS
OF INSTABILITY...ISO SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED. WITH WEAK
CONVERGENCE AND NO REAL SUPPORT FOR ANY ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT...HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF ISO SHOWERS/STORMS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING.

SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM
NEAR 70 IN MIDTOWN NYC...TO THE 60S MOST ELSEWHERE...TO SOME UPPER
50S IN THE VALLEYS OF ORANGE COUNTY AND IN THE LONG ISLAND PINE
BARRENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD STALL NOT TOO FAR OFF TO THE SOUTH ON THU.
EXPECT DRY CONDS FOR THE MOST PART...THOUGH WITH AREA IN RIGHT
REAR QUAD OF UPPER JET EXPECT PLENTY OF HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS
MAINLY ACROSS NYC METRO AND LONG ISLAND. ENOUGH LATE DAY
INSTABILITY MAY ALSO BUILD FOR A LATE DAY SHOWER/TSTM IN/NEAR
NE NJ. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF TODAY...LOWER AND
MID 80S.

FLOW WILL BE WEAK ENOUGH TO ALLOW SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT...THOUGH
NOT NEARLY AS STRONG AS THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.

ONCE THE UPPER JET PASSES TO THE EAST LATE THU NIGHT...HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD START TO BUILD IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES...WITH N-NE
FLOW AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. AS A RESULT LOWS WILL BE A COOLER
LOWER/MID 60S IN MOST PLACES...AND 55-60 ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY WITH SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE TROUGH. THE UPPER
TROUGH WEAKENS SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY AS RIDGING
BUILDS OVER THE AREA. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE ONE WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE
NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD MAY REACH LONG ISLAND.
AT THIS TIME WILL KEEP JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS EASTERN LONG
ISLAND AS THE WAVE PASSES. ANOTHER WAVE PASSES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. HOWEVER WITH RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION THIS WAVE WILL BE
FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA. TUESDAY
THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OFFSHORE AS A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIGS INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. A WEAK SHORTWAVE COULD BRING
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY WILL BE POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE AT THIS
TIME. WEDNESDAY A STRONGER SHORTWAVE ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO
THE REGION ON THURSDAY.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

W-NW 5-10 KT WILL BECOME LGT/VRB BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

LIGHT WINDS IN THE MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZES AT 5-10 KT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 03Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THU NIGHT...VFR WITH DIMINISHING WINDS.
.FRI...VFR WITH WINDS VEERING FROM THE NE TO THE ESE. SEA BREEZES
POSSIBLE.
.FRI NIGHT-SAT...LOW PRES WILL TRACK S OF THE REGION. IF THE LOW IS
CLOSE ENOUGH...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WITH -RA. WINDS GENERALLY NE
OR E.
.SAT NIGHT-MON...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS HAVE BUILT TO 5 FT AT 44017 THIS EVENING SO THE SCA CONTINUES
E O MORICHES. HAVE NOTED SEAS BUILDING TO JUST ABOVE 4 FT BETWEEN
FIRE ISLAND INLET AND MORICHES INLET. SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW 5 FT
HERE...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO SEE IF
A SCA IS NEEDED FOR THE CENTRAL OCEAN.

A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS THU
THROUGH MON. GENERALLY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE
WATERS...WITH ONE LOW PASSING TO THE SOUTH FRI NIGHT INTO
SAT...AND ANOTHER LOW PASSING SOUTH SLOWLY FROM SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH FULL MOON...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 3/4 TO 1 1/2 FT ARE
NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED AT THE
PEAK OF THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDES THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
MINOR BENCHMARKS COULD BRIEFLY BE TOUCHED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE
BAYS OF NASSAU COUNTY THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/MET
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/DS
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...GOODMAN/MET
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KOKX 020233
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1033 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND THEN SETTLES
JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD IN FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AND REMAIN THROUGH
TUESDAY AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE PASS TO THE SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY...AND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE REGION THIS
EVE...AND WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH LOSS
OF INSTABILITY...ISO SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED. WITH WEAK
CONVERGENCE AND NO REAL SUPPORT FOR ANY ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT...HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF ISO SHOWERS/STORMS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING.

SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM
NEAR 70 IN MIDTOWN NYC...TO THE 60S MOST ELSEWHERE...TO SOME UPPER
50S IN THE VALLEYS OF ORANGE COUNTY AND IN THE LONG ISLAND PINE
BARRENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD STALL NOT TOO FAR OFF TO THE SOUTH ON THU.
EXPECT DRY CONDS FOR THE MOST PART...THOUGH WITH AREA IN RIGHT
REAR QUAD OF UPPER JET EXPECT PLENTY OF HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS
MAINLY ACROSS NYC METRO AND LONG ISLAND. ENOUGH LATE DAY
INSTABILITY MAY ALSO BUILD FOR A LATE DAY SHOWER/TSTM IN/NEAR
NE NJ. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF TODAY...LOWER AND
MID 80S.

FLOW WILL BE WEAK ENOUGH TO ALLOW SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT...THOUGH
NOT NEARLY AS STRONG AS THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.

ONCE THE UPPER JET PASSES TO THE EAST LATE THU NIGHT...HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD START TO BUILD IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES...WITH N-NE
FLOW AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. AS A RESULT LOWS WILL BE A COOLER
LOWER/MID 60S IN MOST PLACES...AND 55-60 ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY WITH SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE TROUGH. THE UPPER
TROUGH WEAKENS SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY AS RIDGING
BUILDS OVER THE AREA. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE ONE WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE
NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD MAY REACH LONG ISLAND.
AT THIS TIME WILL KEEP JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS EASTERN LONG
ISLAND AS THE WAVE PASSES. ANOTHER WAVE PASSES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. HOWEVER WITH RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION THIS WAVE WILL BE
FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA. TUESDAY
THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OFFSHORE AS A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIGS INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. A WEAK SHORTWAVE COULD BRING
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY WILL BE POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE AT THIS
TIME. WEDNESDAY A STRONGER SHORTWAVE ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO
THE REGION ON THURSDAY.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

W-NW 5-10 KT WILL BECOME LGT/VRB BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

LIGHT WINDS IN THE MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZES AT 5-10 KT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 03Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THU NIGHT...VFR WITH DIMINISHING WINDS.
.FRI...VFR WITH WINDS VEERING FROM THE NE TO THE ESE. SEA BREEZES
POSSIBLE.
.FRI NIGHT-SAT...LOW PRES WILL TRACK S OF THE REGION. IF THE LOW IS
CLOSE ENOUGH...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WITH -RA. WINDS GENERALLY NE
OR E.
.SAT NIGHT-MON...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS HAVE BUILT TO 5 FT AT 44017 THIS EVENING SO THE SCA CONTINUES
E O MORICHES. HAVE NOTED SEAS BUILDING TO JUST ABOVE 4 FT BETWEEN
FIRE ISLAND INLET AND MORICHES INLET. SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW 5 FT
HERE...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO SEE IF
A SCA IS NEEDED FOR THE CENTRAL OCEAN.

A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS THU
THROUGH MON. GENERALLY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE
WATERS...WITH ONE LOW PASSING TO THE SOUTH FRI NIGHT INTO
SAT...AND ANOTHER LOW PASSING SOUTH SLOWLY FROM SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH FULL MOON...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 3/4 TO 1 1/2 FT ARE
NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED AT THE
PEAK OF THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDES THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
MINOR BENCHMARKS COULD BRIEFLY BE TOUCHED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE
BAYS OF NASSAU COUNTY THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/MET
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/DS
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...GOODMAN/MET
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KOKX 020233
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1033 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND THEN SETTLES
JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD IN FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AND REMAIN THROUGH
TUESDAY AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE PASS TO THE SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY...AND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE REGION THIS
EVE...AND WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH LOSS
OF INSTABILITY...ISO SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED. WITH WEAK
CONVERGENCE AND NO REAL SUPPORT FOR ANY ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT...HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF ISO SHOWERS/STORMS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING.

SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM
NEAR 70 IN MIDTOWN NYC...TO THE 60S MOST ELSEWHERE...TO SOME UPPER
50S IN THE VALLEYS OF ORANGE COUNTY AND IN THE LONG ISLAND PINE
BARRENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD STALL NOT TOO FAR OFF TO THE SOUTH ON THU.
EXPECT DRY CONDS FOR THE MOST PART...THOUGH WITH AREA IN RIGHT
REAR QUAD OF UPPER JET EXPECT PLENTY OF HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS
MAINLY ACROSS NYC METRO AND LONG ISLAND. ENOUGH LATE DAY
INSTABILITY MAY ALSO BUILD FOR A LATE DAY SHOWER/TSTM IN/NEAR
NE NJ. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF TODAY...LOWER AND
MID 80S.

FLOW WILL BE WEAK ENOUGH TO ALLOW SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT...THOUGH
NOT NEARLY AS STRONG AS THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.

ONCE THE UPPER JET PASSES TO THE EAST LATE THU NIGHT...HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD START TO BUILD IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES...WITH N-NE
FLOW AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. AS A RESULT LOWS WILL BE A COOLER
LOWER/MID 60S IN MOST PLACES...AND 55-60 ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY WITH SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE TROUGH. THE UPPER
TROUGH WEAKENS SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY AS RIDGING
BUILDS OVER THE AREA. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE ONE WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE
NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD MAY REACH LONG ISLAND.
AT THIS TIME WILL KEEP JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS EASTERN LONG
ISLAND AS THE WAVE PASSES. ANOTHER WAVE PASSES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. HOWEVER WITH RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION THIS WAVE WILL BE
FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA. TUESDAY
THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OFFSHORE AS A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIGS INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. A WEAK SHORTWAVE COULD BRING
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY WILL BE POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE AT THIS
TIME. WEDNESDAY A STRONGER SHORTWAVE ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO
THE REGION ON THURSDAY.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

W-NW 5-10 KT WILL BECOME LGT/VRB BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

LIGHT WINDS IN THE MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZES AT 5-10 KT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 03Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THU NIGHT...VFR WITH DIMINISHING WINDS.
.FRI...VFR WITH WINDS VEERING FROM THE NE TO THE ESE. SEA BREEZES
POSSIBLE.
.FRI NIGHT-SAT...LOW PRES WILL TRACK S OF THE REGION. IF THE LOW IS
CLOSE ENOUGH...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WITH -RA. WINDS GENERALLY NE
OR E.
.SAT NIGHT-MON...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS HAVE BUILT TO 5 FT AT 44017 THIS EVENING SO THE SCA CONTINUES
E O MORICHES. HAVE NOTED SEAS BUILDING TO JUST ABOVE 4 FT BETWEEN
FIRE ISLAND INLET AND MORICHES INLET. SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW 5 FT
HERE...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO SEE IF
A SCA IS NEEDED FOR THE CENTRAL OCEAN.

A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS THU
THROUGH MON. GENERALLY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE
WATERS...WITH ONE LOW PASSING TO THE SOUTH FRI NIGHT INTO
SAT...AND ANOTHER LOW PASSING SOUTH SLOWLY FROM SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH FULL MOON...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 3/4 TO 1 1/2 FT ARE
NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED AT THE
PEAK OF THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDES THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
MINOR BENCHMARKS COULD BRIEFLY BE TOUCHED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE
BAYS OF NASSAU COUNTY THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/MET
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/DS
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...GOODMAN/MET
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KOKX 020233
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1033 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND THEN SETTLES
JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD IN FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AND REMAIN THROUGH
TUESDAY AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE PASS TO THE SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY...AND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE REGION THIS
EVE...AND WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH LOSS
OF INSTABILITY...ISO SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED. WITH WEAK
CONVERGENCE AND NO REAL SUPPORT FOR ANY ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT...HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF ISO SHOWERS/STORMS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING.

SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM
NEAR 70 IN MIDTOWN NYC...TO THE 60S MOST ELSEWHERE...TO SOME UPPER
50S IN THE VALLEYS OF ORANGE COUNTY AND IN THE LONG ISLAND PINE
BARRENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD STALL NOT TOO FAR OFF TO THE SOUTH ON THU.
EXPECT DRY CONDS FOR THE MOST PART...THOUGH WITH AREA IN RIGHT
REAR QUAD OF UPPER JET EXPECT PLENTY OF HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS
MAINLY ACROSS NYC METRO AND LONG ISLAND. ENOUGH LATE DAY
INSTABILITY MAY ALSO BUILD FOR A LATE DAY SHOWER/TSTM IN/NEAR
NE NJ. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF TODAY...LOWER AND
MID 80S.

FLOW WILL BE WEAK ENOUGH TO ALLOW SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT...THOUGH
NOT NEARLY AS STRONG AS THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.

ONCE THE UPPER JET PASSES TO THE EAST LATE THU NIGHT...HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD START TO BUILD IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES...WITH N-NE
FLOW AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. AS A RESULT LOWS WILL BE A COOLER
LOWER/MID 60S IN MOST PLACES...AND 55-60 ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY WITH SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE TROUGH. THE UPPER
TROUGH WEAKENS SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY AS RIDGING
BUILDS OVER THE AREA. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE ONE WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE
NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD MAY REACH LONG ISLAND.
AT THIS TIME WILL KEEP JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS EASTERN LONG
ISLAND AS THE WAVE PASSES. ANOTHER WAVE PASSES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. HOWEVER WITH RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION THIS WAVE WILL BE
FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA. TUESDAY
THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OFFSHORE AS A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIGS INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. A WEAK SHORTWAVE COULD BRING
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY WILL BE POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE AT THIS
TIME. WEDNESDAY A STRONGER SHORTWAVE ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO
THE REGION ON THURSDAY.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

W-NW 5-10 KT WILL BECOME LGT/VRB BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

LIGHT WINDS IN THE MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZES AT 5-10 KT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 03Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THU NIGHT...VFR WITH DIMINISHING WINDS.
.FRI...VFR WITH WINDS VEERING FROM THE NE TO THE ESE. SEA BREEZES
POSSIBLE.
.FRI NIGHT-SAT...LOW PRES WILL TRACK S OF THE REGION. IF THE LOW IS
CLOSE ENOUGH...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WITH -RA. WINDS GENERALLY NE
OR E.
.SAT NIGHT-MON...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS HAVE BUILT TO 5 FT AT 44017 THIS EVENING SO THE SCA CONTINUES
E O MORICHES. HAVE NOTED SEAS BUILDING TO JUST ABOVE 4 FT BETWEEN
FIRE ISLAND INLET AND MORICHES INLET. SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW 5 FT
HERE...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO SEE IF
A SCA IS NEEDED FOR THE CENTRAL OCEAN.

A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS THU
THROUGH MON. GENERALLY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE
WATERS...WITH ONE LOW PASSING TO THE SOUTH FRI NIGHT INTO
SAT...AND ANOTHER LOW PASSING SOUTH SLOWLY FROM SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH FULL MOON...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 3/4 TO 1 1/2 FT ARE
NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED AT THE
PEAK OF THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDES THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
MINOR BENCHMARKS COULD BRIEFLY BE TOUCHED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE
BAYS OF NASSAU COUNTY THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/MET
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/DS
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...GOODMAN/MET
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KOKX 020140
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
940 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND THEN SETTLES
JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD IN FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AND REMAIN THROUGH
TUESDAY AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE PASS TO THE SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY...AND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE REGION THIS
EVE...AND WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH LOSS
OF INSTABILITY...ISO SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED. WITH WEAK
CONVERGENCE AND NO REAL SUPPORT FOR ANY ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT...HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF ISO SHOWERS/STORMS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING.

SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM
NEAR 70 IN MIDTOWN NYC...TO THE 60S MOST ELSEWHERE...TO SOME UPPER
50S IN THE VALLEYS OF ORANGE COUNTY AND IN THE LONG ISLAND PINE
BARRENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD STALL NOT TOO FAR OFF TO THE SOUTH ON THU.
EXPECT DRY CONDS FOR THE MOST PART...THOUGH WITH AREA IN RIGHT
REAR QUAD OF UPPER JET EXPECT PLENTY OF HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS
MAINLY ACROSS NYC METRO AND LONG ISLAND. ENOUGH LATE DAY
INSTABILITY MAY ALSO BUILD FOR A LATE DAY SHOWER/TSTM IN/NEAR
NE NJ. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF TODAY...LOWER AND
MID 80S.

FLOW WILL BE WEAK ENOUGH TO ALLOW SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT...THOUGH
NOT NEARLY AS STRONG AS THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.

ONCE THE UPPER JET PASSES TO THE EAST LATE THU NIGHT...HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD START TO BUILD IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES...WITH N-NE
FLOW AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. AS A RESULT LOWS WILL BE A COOLER
LOWER/MID 60S IN MOST PLACES...AND 55-60 ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY WITH SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE TROUGH. THE UPPER
TROUGH WEAKENS SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY AS RIDGING
BUILDS OVER THE AREA. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE ONE WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE
NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD MAY REACH LONG ISLAND.
AT THIS TIME WILL KEEP JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS EASTERN LONG
ISLAND AS THE WAVE PASSES. ANOTHER WAVE PASSES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. HOWEVER WITH RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION THIS WAVE WILL BE
FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA. TUESDAY
THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OFFSHORE AS A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIGS INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. A WEAK SHORTWAVE COULD BRING
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY WILL BE POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE AT THIS
TIME. WEDNESDAY A STRONGER SHORTWAVE ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO
THE REGION ON THURSDAY.

VFR CONDS. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE
EARLY EVENING...MAINLY NW OF NYC TERMINALS...BUT COVERAGE IS
FORECAST TO BE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF.

SW WINDS WILL VEER TO THE W-NW AND DIMINISH TO 5-10 KT EARLY THIS
EVENING BEFORE BECOMING LGT/VRB BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

LIGHT WINDS IN THE MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMDS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMDS EXPECTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMDS EXPECTED.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMDS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMDS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMDS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THU NIGHT...VFR WITH DIMINISHING WINDS.
.FRI...VFR WITH WINDS VEERING FROM THE NE TO THE ESE. SEA BREEZES
POSSIBLE.
.FRI NIGHT-SAT...LOW PRES WILL TRACK S OF THE REGION. IF THE LOW IS
CLOSE ENOUGH...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WITH -RA. WINDS GENERALLY NE
OR E.
.SAT NIGHT-MON...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS HAVE BUILT TO 5 FT AT 44017 THIS EVENING SO THE SCA CONTINUES
E O MORICHES. HAVE NOTED SEAS BUILDING TO JUST ABOVE 4 FT BETWEEN
FIRE ISLAND INLET AND MORICHES INLET. SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW 5 FT
HERE...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO SEE IF
A SCA IS NEEDED FOR THE CENTRAL OCEAN.

A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS THU
THROUGH MON. GENERALLY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE
WATERS...WITH ONE LOW PASSING TO THE SOUTH FRI NIGHT INTO
SAT...AND ANOTHER LOW PASSING SOUTH SLOWLY FROM SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH FULL MOON...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 3/4 TO 1 1/2 FT ARE
NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED AT THE
PEAK OF THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDES THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
MINOR BENCHMARKS COULD BRIEFLY BE TOUCHED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE
BAYS OF NASSAU COUNTY THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/MET
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/DS
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...GOODMAN/MET
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KOKX 020140
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
940 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND THEN SETTLES
JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD IN FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AND REMAIN THROUGH
TUESDAY AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE PASS TO THE SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY...AND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE REGION THIS
EVE...AND WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH LOSS
OF INSTABILITY...ISO SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED. WITH WEAK
CONVERGENCE AND NO REAL SUPPORT FOR ANY ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT...HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF ISO SHOWERS/STORMS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING.

SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM
NEAR 70 IN MIDTOWN NYC...TO THE 60S MOST ELSEWHERE...TO SOME UPPER
50S IN THE VALLEYS OF ORANGE COUNTY AND IN THE LONG ISLAND PINE
BARRENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD STALL NOT TOO FAR OFF TO THE SOUTH ON THU.
EXPECT DRY CONDS FOR THE MOST PART...THOUGH WITH AREA IN RIGHT
REAR QUAD OF UPPER JET EXPECT PLENTY OF HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS
MAINLY ACROSS NYC METRO AND LONG ISLAND. ENOUGH LATE DAY
INSTABILITY MAY ALSO BUILD FOR A LATE DAY SHOWER/TSTM IN/NEAR
NE NJ. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF TODAY...LOWER AND
MID 80S.

FLOW WILL BE WEAK ENOUGH TO ALLOW SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT...THOUGH
NOT NEARLY AS STRONG AS THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.

ONCE THE UPPER JET PASSES TO THE EAST LATE THU NIGHT...HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD START TO BUILD IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES...WITH N-NE
FLOW AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. AS A RESULT LOWS WILL BE A COOLER
LOWER/MID 60S IN MOST PLACES...AND 55-60 ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY WITH SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE TROUGH. THE UPPER
TROUGH WEAKENS SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY AS RIDGING
BUILDS OVER THE AREA. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE ONE WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE
NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD MAY REACH LONG ISLAND.
AT THIS TIME WILL KEEP JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS EASTERN LONG
ISLAND AS THE WAVE PASSES. ANOTHER WAVE PASSES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. HOWEVER WITH RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION THIS WAVE WILL BE
FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA. TUESDAY
THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OFFSHORE AS A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIGS INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. A WEAK SHORTWAVE COULD BRING
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY WILL BE POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE AT THIS
TIME. WEDNESDAY A STRONGER SHORTWAVE ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO
THE REGION ON THURSDAY.

VFR CONDS. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE
EARLY EVENING...MAINLY NW OF NYC TERMINALS...BUT COVERAGE IS
FORECAST TO BE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF.

SW WINDS WILL VEER TO THE W-NW AND DIMINISH TO 5-10 KT EARLY THIS
EVENING BEFORE BECOMING LGT/VRB BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

LIGHT WINDS IN THE MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMDS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMDS EXPECTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMDS EXPECTED.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMDS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMDS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMDS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THU NIGHT...VFR WITH DIMINISHING WINDS.
.FRI...VFR WITH WINDS VEERING FROM THE NE TO THE ESE. SEA BREEZES
POSSIBLE.
.FRI NIGHT-SAT...LOW PRES WILL TRACK S OF THE REGION. IF THE LOW IS
CLOSE ENOUGH...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WITH -RA. WINDS GENERALLY NE
OR E.
.SAT NIGHT-MON...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS HAVE BUILT TO 5 FT AT 44017 THIS EVENING SO THE SCA CONTINUES
E O MORICHES. HAVE NOTED SEAS BUILDING TO JUST ABOVE 4 FT BETWEEN
FIRE ISLAND INLET AND MORICHES INLET. SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW 5 FT
HERE...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO SEE IF
A SCA IS NEEDED FOR THE CENTRAL OCEAN.

A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS THU
THROUGH MON. GENERALLY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE
WATERS...WITH ONE LOW PASSING TO THE SOUTH FRI NIGHT INTO
SAT...AND ANOTHER LOW PASSING SOUTH SLOWLY FROM SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH FULL MOON...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 3/4 TO 1 1/2 FT ARE
NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED AT THE
PEAK OF THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDES THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
MINOR BENCHMARKS COULD BRIEFLY BE TOUCHED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE
BAYS OF NASSAU COUNTY THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/MET
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/DS
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...GOODMAN/MET
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KOKX 020140
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
940 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND THEN SETTLES
JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD IN FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AND REMAIN THROUGH
TUESDAY AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE PASS TO THE SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY...AND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE REGION THIS
EVE...AND WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH LOSS
OF INSTABILITY...ISO SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED. WITH WEAK
CONVERGENCE AND NO REAL SUPPORT FOR ANY ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT...HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF ISO SHOWERS/STORMS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING.

SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM
NEAR 70 IN MIDTOWN NYC...TO THE 60S MOST ELSEWHERE...TO SOME UPPER
50S IN THE VALLEYS OF ORANGE COUNTY AND IN THE LONG ISLAND PINE
BARRENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD STALL NOT TOO FAR OFF TO THE SOUTH ON THU.
EXPECT DRY CONDS FOR THE MOST PART...THOUGH WITH AREA IN RIGHT
REAR QUAD OF UPPER JET EXPECT PLENTY OF HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS
MAINLY ACROSS NYC METRO AND LONG ISLAND. ENOUGH LATE DAY
INSTABILITY MAY ALSO BUILD FOR A LATE DAY SHOWER/TSTM IN/NEAR
NE NJ. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF TODAY...LOWER AND
MID 80S.

FLOW WILL BE WEAK ENOUGH TO ALLOW SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT...THOUGH
NOT NEARLY AS STRONG AS THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.

ONCE THE UPPER JET PASSES TO THE EAST LATE THU NIGHT...HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD START TO BUILD IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES...WITH N-NE
FLOW AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. AS A RESULT LOWS WILL BE A COOLER
LOWER/MID 60S IN MOST PLACES...AND 55-60 ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY WITH SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE TROUGH. THE UPPER
TROUGH WEAKENS SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY AS RIDGING
BUILDS OVER THE AREA. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE ONE WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE
NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD MAY REACH LONG ISLAND.
AT THIS TIME WILL KEEP JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS EASTERN LONG
ISLAND AS THE WAVE PASSES. ANOTHER WAVE PASSES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. HOWEVER WITH RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION THIS WAVE WILL BE
FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA. TUESDAY
THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OFFSHORE AS A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIGS INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. A WEAK SHORTWAVE COULD BRING
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY WILL BE POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE AT THIS
TIME. WEDNESDAY A STRONGER SHORTWAVE ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO
THE REGION ON THURSDAY.

VFR CONDS. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE
EARLY EVENING...MAINLY NW OF NYC TERMINALS...BUT COVERAGE IS
FORECAST TO BE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF.

SW WINDS WILL VEER TO THE W-NW AND DIMINISH TO 5-10 KT EARLY THIS
EVENING BEFORE BECOMING LGT/VRB BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

LIGHT WINDS IN THE MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMDS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMDS EXPECTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMDS EXPECTED.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMDS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMDS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMDS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THU NIGHT...VFR WITH DIMINISHING WINDS.
.FRI...VFR WITH WINDS VEERING FROM THE NE TO THE ESE. SEA BREEZES
POSSIBLE.
.FRI NIGHT-SAT...LOW PRES WILL TRACK S OF THE REGION. IF THE LOW IS
CLOSE ENOUGH...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WITH -RA. WINDS GENERALLY NE
OR E.
.SAT NIGHT-MON...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS HAVE BUILT TO 5 FT AT 44017 THIS EVENING SO THE SCA CONTINUES
E O MORICHES. HAVE NOTED SEAS BUILDING TO JUST ABOVE 4 FT BETWEEN
FIRE ISLAND INLET AND MORICHES INLET. SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW 5 FT
HERE...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO SEE IF
A SCA IS NEEDED FOR THE CENTRAL OCEAN.

A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS THU
THROUGH MON. GENERALLY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE
WATERS...WITH ONE LOW PASSING TO THE SOUTH FRI NIGHT INTO
SAT...AND ANOTHER LOW PASSING SOUTH SLOWLY FROM SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH FULL MOON...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 3/4 TO 1 1/2 FT ARE
NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED AT THE
PEAK OF THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDES THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
MINOR BENCHMARKS COULD BRIEFLY BE TOUCHED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE
BAYS OF NASSAU COUNTY THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/MET
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/DS
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...GOODMAN/MET
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KOKX 020140
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
940 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND THEN SETTLES
JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD IN FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AND REMAIN THROUGH
TUESDAY AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE PASS TO THE SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY...AND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE REGION THIS
EVE...AND WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH LOSS
OF INSTABILITY...ISO SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED. WITH WEAK
CONVERGENCE AND NO REAL SUPPORT FOR ANY ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT...HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF ISO SHOWERS/STORMS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING.

SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM
NEAR 70 IN MIDTOWN NYC...TO THE 60S MOST ELSEWHERE...TO SOME UPPER
50S IN THE VALLEYS OF ORANGE COUNTY AND IN THE LONG ISLAND PINE
BARRENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD STALL NOT TOO FAR OFF TO THE SOUTH ON THU.
EXPECT DRY CONDS FOR THE MOST PART...THOUGH WITH AREA IN RIGHT
REAR QUAD OF UPPER JET EXPECT PLENTY OF HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS
MAINLY ACROSS NYC METRO AND LONG ISLAND. ENOUGH LATE DAY
INSTABILITY MAY ALSO BUILD FOR A LATE DAY SHOWER/TSTM IN/NEAR
NE NJ. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF TODAY...LOWER AND
MID 80S.

FLOW WILL BE WEAK ENOUGH TO ALLOW SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT...THOUGH
NOT NEARLY AS STRONG AS THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.

ONCE THE UPPER JET PASSES TO THE EAST LATE THU NIGHT...HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD START TO BUILD IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES...WITH N-NE
FLOW AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. AS A RESULT LOWS WILL BE A COOLER
LOWER/MID 60S IN MOST PLACES...AND 55-60 ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY WITH SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE TROUGH. THE UPPER
TROUGH WEAKENS SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY AS RIDGING
BUILDS OVER THE AREA. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE ONE WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE
NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD MAY REACH LONG ISLAND.
AT THIS TIME WILL KEEP JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS EASTERN LONG
ISLAND AS THE WAVE PASSES. ANOTHER WAVE PASSES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. HOWEVER WITH RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION THIS WAVE WILL BE
FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA. TUESDAY
THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OFFSHORE AS A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIGS INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. A WEAK SHORTWAVE COULD BRING
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY WILL BE POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE AT THIS
TIME. WEDNESDAY A STRONGER SHORTWAVE ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO
THE REGION ON THURSDAY.

VFR CONDS. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE
EARLY EVENING...MAINLY NW OF NYC TERMINALS...BUT COVERAGE IS
FORECAST TO BE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF.

SW WINDS WILL VEER TO THE W-NW AND DIMINISH TO 5-10 KT EARLY THIS
EVENING BEFORE BECOMING LGT/VRB BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

LIGHT WINDS IN THE MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMDS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMDS EXPECTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMDS EXPECTED.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMDS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMDS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMDS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THU NIGHT...VFR WITH DIMINISHING WINDS.
.FRI...VFR WITH WINDS VEERING FROM THE NE TO THE ESE. SEA BREEZES
POSSIBLE.
.FRI NIGHT-SAT...LOW PRES WILL TRACK S OF THE REGION. IF THE LOW IS
CLOSE ENOUGH...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WITH -RA. WINDS GENERALLY NE
OR E.
.SAT NIGHT-MON...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS HAVE BUILT TO 5 FT AT 44017 THIS EVENING SO THE SCA CONTINUES
E O MORICHES. HAVE NOTED SEAS BUILDING TO JUST ABOVE 4 FT BETWEEN
FIRE ISLAND INLET AND MORICHES INLET. SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW 5 FT
HERE...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO SEE IF
A SCA IS NEEDED FOR THE CENTRAL OCEAN.

A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS THU
THROUGH MON. GENERALLY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE
WATERS...WITH ONE LOW PASSING TO THE SOUTH FRI NIGHT INTO
SAT...AND ANOTHER LOW PASSING SOUTH SLOWLY FROM SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH FULL MOON...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 3/4 TO 1 1/2 FT ARE
NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED AT THE
PEAK OF THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDES THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
MINOR BENCHMARKS COULD BRIEFLY BE TOUCHED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE
BAYS OF NASSAU COUNTY THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/MET
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/DS
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...GOODMAN/MET
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KOKX 020140
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
940 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND THEN SETTLES
JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD IN FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AND REMAIN THROUGH
TUESDAY AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE PASS TO THE SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY...AND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE REGION THIS
EVE...AND WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH LOSS
OF INSTABILITY...ISO SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED. WITH WEAK
CONVERGENCE AND NO REAL SUPPORT FOR ANY ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT...HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF ISO SHOWERS/STORMS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING.

SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM
NEAR 70 IN MIDTOWN NYC...TO THE 60S MOST ELSEWHERE...TO SOME UPPER
50S IN THE VALLEYS OF ORANGE COUNTY AND IN THE LONG ISLAND PINE
BARRENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD STALL NOT TOO FAR OFF TO THE SOUTH ON THU.
EXPECT DRY CONDS FOR THE MOST PART...THOUGH WITH AREA IN RIGHT
REAR QUAD OF UPPER JET EXPECT PLENTY OF HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS
MAINLY ACROSS NYC METRO AND LONG ISLAND. ENOUGH LATE DAY
INSTABILITY MAY ALSO BUILD FOR A LATE DAY SHOWER/TSTM IN/NEAR
NE NJ. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF TODAY...LOWER AND
MID 80S.

FLOW WILL BE WEAK ENOUGH TO ALLOW SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT...THOUGH
NOT NEARLY AS STRONG AS THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.

ONCE THE UPPER JET PASSES TO THE EAST LATE THU NIGHT...HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD START TO BUILD IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES...WITH N-NE
FLOW AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. AS A RESULT LOWS WILL BE A COOLER
LOWER/MID 60S IN MOST PLACES...AND 55-60 ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY WITH SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE TROUGH. THE UPPER
TROUGH WEAKENS SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY AS RIDGING
BUILDS OVER THE AREA. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE ONE WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE
NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD MAY REACH LONG ISLAND.
AT THIS TIME WILL KEEP JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS EASTERN LONG
ISLAND AS THE WAVE PASSES. ANOTHER WAVE PASSES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. HOWEVER WITH RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION THIS WAVE WILL BE
FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA. TUESDAY
THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OFFSHORE AS A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIGS INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. A WEAK SHORTWAVE COULD BRING
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY WILL BE POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE AT THIS
TIME. WEDNESDAY A STRONGER SHORTWAVE ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO
THE REGION ON THURSDAY.

VFR CONDS. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE
EARLY EVENING...MAINLY NW OF NYC TERMINALS...BUT COVERAGE IS
FORECAST TO BE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF.

SW WINDS WILL VEER TO THE W-NW AND DIMINISH TO 5-10 KT EARLY THIS
EVENING BEFORE BECOMING LGT/VRB BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

LIGHT WINDS IN THE MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMDS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMDS EXPECTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMDS EXPECTED.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMDS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMDS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMDS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THU NIGHT...VFR WITH DIMINISHING WINDS.
.FRI...VFR WITH WINDS VEERING FROM THE NE TO THE ESE. SEA BREEZES
POSSIBLE.
.FRI NIGHT-SAT...LOW PRES WILL TRACK S OF THE REGION. IF THE LOW IS
CLOSE ENOUGH...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WITH -RA. WINDS GENERALLY NE
OR E.
.SAT NIGHT-MON...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS HAVE BUILT TO 5 FT AT 44017 THIS EVENING SO THE SCA CONTINUES
E O MORICHES. HAVE NOTED SEAS BUILDING TO JUST ABOVE 4 FT BETWEEN
FIRE ISLAND INLET AND MORICHES INLET. SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW 5 FT
HERE...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO SEE IF
A SCA IS NEEDED FOR THE CENTRAL OCEAN.

A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS THU
THROUGH MON. GENERALLY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE
WATERS...WITH ONE LOW PASSING TO THE SOUTH FRI NIGHT INTO
SAT...AND ANOTHER LOW PASSING SOUTH SLOWLY FROM SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH FULL MOON...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 3/4 TO 1 1/2 FT ARE
NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED AT THE
PEAK OF THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDES THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
MINOR BENCHMARKS COULD BRIEFLY BE TOUCHED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE
BAYS OF NASSAU COUNTY THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/MET
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/DS
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...GOODMAN/MET
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KOKX 020140
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
940 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND THEN SETTLES
JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD IN FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AND REMAIN THROUGH
TUESDAY AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE PASS TO THE SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY...AND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE REGION THIS
EVE...AND WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH LOSS
OF INSTABILITY...ISO SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED. WITH WEAK
CONVERGENCE AND NO REAL SUPPORT FOR ANY ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT...HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF ISO SHOWERS/STORMS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING.

SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM
NEAR 70 IN MIDTOWN NYC...TO THE 60S MOST ELSEWHERE...TO SOME UPPER
50S IN THE VALLEYS OF ORANGE COUNTY AND IN THE LONG ISLAND PINE
BARRENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD STALL NOT TOO FAR OFF TO THE SOUTH ON THU.
EXPECT DRY CONDS FOR THE MOST PART...THOUGH WITH AREA IN RIGHT
REAR QUAD OF UPPER JET EXPECT PLENTY OF HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS
MAINLY ACROSS NYC METRO AND LONG ISLAND. ENOUGH LATE DAY
INSTABILITY MAY ALSO BUILD FOR A LATE DAY SHOWER/TSTM IN/NEAR
NE NJ. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF TODAY...LOWER AND
MID 80S.

FLOW WILL BE WEAK ENOUGH TO ALLOW SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT...THOUGH
NOT NEARLY AS STRONG AS THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.

ONCE THE UPPER JET PASSES TO THE EAST LATE THU NIGHT...HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD START TO BUILD IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES...WITH N-NE
FLOW AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. AS A RESULT LOWS WILL BE A COOLER
LOWER/MID 60S IN MOST PLACES...AND 55-60 ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY WITH SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE TROUGH. THE UPPER
TROUGH WEAKENS SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY AS RIDGING
BUILDS OVER THE AREA. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE ONE WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE
NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD MAY REACH LONG ISLAND.
AT THIS TIME WILL KEEP JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS EASTERN LONG
ISLAND AS THE WAVE PASSES. ANOTHER WAVE PASSES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. HOWEVER WITH RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION THIS WAVE WILL BE
FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA. TUESDAY
THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OFFSHORE AS A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIGS INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. A WEAK SHORTWAVE COULD BRING
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY WILL BE POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE AT THIS
TIME. WEDNESDAY A STRONGER SHORTWAVE ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO
THE REGION ON THURSDAY.

VFR CONDS. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE
EARLY EVENING...MAINLY NW OF NYC TERMINALS...BUT COVERAGE IS
FORECAST TO BE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF.

SW WINDS WILL VEER TO THE W-NW AND DIMINISH TO 5-10 KT EARLY THIS
EVENING BEFORE BECOMING LGT/VRB BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

LIGHT WINDS IN THE MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMDS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMDS EXPECTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMDS EXPECTED.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMDS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMDS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMDS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THU NIGHT...VFR WITH DIMINISHING WINDS.
.FRI...VFR WITH WINDS VEERING FROM THE NE TO THE ESE. SEA BREEZES
POSSIBLE.
.FRI NIGHT-SAT...LOW PRES WILL TRACK S OF THE REGION. IF THE LOW IS
CLOSE ENOUGH...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WITH -RA. WINDS GENERALLY NE
OR E.
.SAT NIGHT-MON...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS HAVE BUILT TO 5 FT AT 44017 THIS EVENING SO THE SCA CONTINUES
E O MORICHES. HAVE NOTED SEAS BUILDING TO JUST ABOVE 4 FT BETWEEN
FIRE ISLAND INLET AND MORICHES INLET. SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW 5 FT
HERE...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO SEE IF
A SCA IS NEEDED FOR THE CENTRAL OCEAN.

A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS THU
THROUGH MON. GENERALLY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE
WATERS...WITH ONE LOW PASSING TO THE SOUTH FRI NIGHT INTO
SAT...AND ANOTHER LOW PASSING SOUTH SLOWLY FROM SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH FULL MOON...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 3/4 TO 1 1/2 FT ARE
NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED AT THE
PEAK OF THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDES THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
MINOR BENCHMARKS COULD BRIEFLY BE TOUCHED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE
BAYS OF NASSAU COUNTY THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/MET
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/DS
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...GOODMAN/MET
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KALY 020023
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
823 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AA COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST THIS
EVENING AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEHIND TO BUILD IN. EXPECTING DRY
WEATHER ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND 5
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AS WE HEAD INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST THIS EVENING AND
HIGHER PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN. THERE ARE
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THIS EVENING AND
THESE WILL MOVE WAY AND/OR DISSIPATE. CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE
TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT. WITH THE GROUND WET/DAMP IN
MANY LOCATIONS SOME MVFR FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM ESPECIALLY IN
VALLEY LOCATIONS. ADJUSTMENTS TO FORECAST FOR TONIGHT WERE BASED
MAINLY ON OBSERVATIONAL DATA AND TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...BRINING A COUPLE DAYS OF DRY AND PLEASANTLY WARM WEATHER
AS WE HEAD TO THE EARLY PART OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

H850 TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE CLOSE TO +10C. THIS WILL YIELD TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING 75 TO 80 IN THE
VALLEYS...70-75 HIGHER TERRAIN.

UNDER A MAINLY CLEAR SKY...LIGHT OR NO WIND...TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL ON BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. LOOK FOR LOWS DOWN INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 40S AREAS WELL NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGIONS...AND
SHELTERED MOUNTAIN VALLEYS EVEN INTO THE CATSKILLS. THERE COULD BE
SOME COLDER POCKETS BOTTOMING OUT CLOSE TO 40. LOWS WILL BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 50S IN THE HUDSON AND MOHAWK VALLEYS FROM ALBANY
SOUTHWARD.

THERE WILL BE FEW-SCT CU FORMING IN THE VALLEYS EACH AFTERNOON...AND
SCT-BKN CU ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AT WORST...THERE COULD BE A
AFTERNOON MOUNTAIN SPRINKLE...BUT OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY. A
NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 10-15 MPH...GUSTING TO 25 MPH ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN/MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE CAPITAL REGION ON
THURSDAY. ON FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...THE WIND
VARIABLE GENERALLY UNDER 10 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH AND PASS OVER THE REGION
THIS WEEKEND. THIS ONE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN PROGRESSIVE AND
POSITIVELY TILTED. MODELS INDICATE WEAK FORCING WITH LIMITED
INSTABILITY WITH CHANCES FOR DEVELOPMENT ANY STORMS LIMITED TO THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST. SHOULD BE SEASONABLE WARM MAINLY
IN THE 70S.

GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH HEIGHTS RISES SUNDAY
AND RIDGING BUILDING IN SUNDAY NIGHT AND DOMINATING INTO TUESDAY.
OUR NEXT CHANCES FOR RAIN/STORMS WILL COME AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND A WEAK LOW APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST ALONG THE COAST.

SUNDAY WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN SATURDAY AND MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES EVEN WARMER. HIGHS AT OR BIT ABOVE NORMAL
MAINLY IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.

IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
NEED