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000
FXUS61 KBOX 201804
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
204 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

MAINLY DRY WEATHER...EXCEPT MAYBE A SHOWER IN THE WEST...WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. PATTERN STARTS TO BECOME A BIT MORE UNSETTLED EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

2 PM UPDATE...

DRY AND QUIET WEATHER. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE E/NE
RESULTING IN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. SEA-BREEZES PROGRESSING
TOWARDS INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND AS A RESULT OF BOTH THE PRESSURE AND
THERMAL GRADIENT. FEW TO SCATTERED CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION...
BROKEN MORESO OVER THE BERKSHIRES SUBSEQUENT OF HIGHER THETA-E
AIR WRAPPING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING CLOSED LOW OUT OF THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AND CONVERGING ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

WILL KEEP WITH A DRY FORECAST WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS. HIGHS
INTO THE LOW-80S ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH A FEW LOCALES MAXING OUT
IN THE MID-80S...COOLER CONDITIONS ALONG THE SHORELINE WITH SEA-
BREEZES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...

TONIGHT...

THE APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND GRADUALLY OPENING UPPER LVL
CUTOFF...COMBINED WITH GRADUAL MOISTURE LOADING OF THE COLUMN IS
LIKELY TO LEAD TO MORE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION THAN PREVIOUS
NIGHTS. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION A SHOWER IS ABLE TO SLIDE ACROSS
THE W...BUT BOTH JET AND VORTICITY RELATED DYNAMICS ARE QUITE
WEAK AND OVERALL COLUMN MOISTURE REMAINS FAIRLY LOW UNTIL THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN A MOSTLY DRY
FORECAST EXCEPT THE EXTREME WRN FRINGES OF THE BOX CWA THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...GIVEN THE INCREASED MOISTURE /CLOUD
COVER/ AND WARMER EVENING TEMPERATURES EXPECT THAT OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS IN SPITE OF THE NEAR CALM FLOW
ONCE AGAIN. MORE WIDESPREAD MID 50S WITH EVEN SOME NORMAL HEAT
ISLANDS HOLDING IN THE LOW-MID 60S ARE EXPECTED.

THURSDAY...

INVERTED RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE...AND MAINLY E-SE FLOW EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION. THE MARINE INFLUENCE IS LIKELY TO STAVE OFF
APPROACHING WARM FRONT AS IT/S ATTENDANT UPPER LVL CUTOFF
DIMINISHES TO AN OPEN WAVE WITH CUTOFF HIGH PRES TO THE N. UPPER
LVL AND LOW LVL JETS ARE WEAK AND WITH OVERALL VORTICITY
DECREASING...THEREFORE DYNAMIC FORCING IS RELATIVELY WEAK EVEN AS
OVERALL COLUMN MOISTURE INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY /PWATS APPROACH
1.75 INCHES/. ALSO...WITH MARINE FLOW AND WARM FRONT TRAPPED TO
THE W...IT/S UNLIKELY THAT THERE WILL BE MUCH DESTABILIZATION
THROUGH THE DAY. GIVEN ALL OF THIS...THE THREAT FOR SHOWERY
ACTIVITY REMAINS FAIRLY LOW. WILL FOCUS ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS W OF
THE CT VALLEY...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO THE WORCESTER HILLS.
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD DIVE TO THE SW OF THE REGION WHERE
INSTABILITY AXIS RESIDES. HAVE KEPT THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST
WITH THIS UPDATE DUE TO THE MARINE FLOW AND MODEST LAPSE RATES.
THE ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND MARINE FLOW ARE ALSO LIKELY TO KEEP
HIGH TEMPS COOLER THAN NORMAL /MAINLY MID 70S/ DURING THE DAY THU.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
* UNCERTAINTY INCREASES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT

RATHER UNIQUE AND STABLE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN
LATE THIS WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND. 20/00Z GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...THEN MORE DIFFERENCES APPEAR EARLY
NEXT WEEK. WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR A CONSENSUS BLEND TO SMOOTH OVER
THE MORE MINOR DIFFERENCES.

HIGH PRESSURE IN QUEBEC WILL KEEP THINGS RELATIVELY DRY ACROSS MOST
OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
THURSDAY NIGHT IF SOME MOVING PARTS COME TOGETHER. MOISTURE IS THE
MAIN LIMITING FACTOR...WITH INSTABILITY A CLOSE SECOND ONCE THE SUN
SETS.

THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL SINK SOUTH THROUGH THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...EVENTUALLY DROPPING SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND
RETURNING US TO A MORE WESTERLY FLOW. A LOW PRESSURE IN ONTARIO MAY
EVENTUALLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO QUEBEC...SWINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SOMETIME TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. DEPENDING ON
AVAILABLE MOISTURE...THIS FRONT MAY INITIATE A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VFR. SEA-BREEZES CONTINUE...BECOMING LIGHT/VRB OVERNIGHT BEFORE
PREVAILING E/SE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. LOW-END VFR CIGS
SLOWLY BUILDING E ALONG WITH -RA CHANCES TOWARDS IJD-ORH-AFN. WILL
ALSO NEED TO WATCH SE MA FOR POTENTIAL +RA AND MVFR-IFR IMPACTS
BEGINNING AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE
CLOSER TO FRIDAY MORNING.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. E/SE FLOW PREVAILS. EXPECT
CONDITIONS NO LOWER THAN LOW-END VFR CIGS. -RA CHANCES MINIMAL.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. -RA CHANCES BEGIN TOWARDS
THURSDAY MORNING ALONG WITH LOW-END VFR CIGS. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE
THOUGH LOW-CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY
MVFR/IFR FOG EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THE MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER CONTINUES. WINDS REMAIN MAINLY E
TO SE WITH A FEW GUSTS AROUND 15 KT POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
OUTER EDGE OF THE S AND SE WATERS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION.
LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY OVERNIGHT FOG LIMITING VISIBILITIES. SEAS
MAY INCREASE ON THE OUTER WATERS THIS WEEKEND AS AN OCEAN STORM
PASSES WELL EAST OF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WATERS. WNA WAVE
GUIDANCE LOOKS TO BE TOO HIGH BASED ON EXPECTED WINDS...LOWERED THIS
GUIDANCE BY 20 PERCENT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 201804
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
204 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

MAINLY DRY WEATHER...EXCEPT MAYBE A SHOWER IN THE WEST...WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. PATTERN STARTS TO BECOME A BIT MORE UNSETTLED EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

2 PM UPDATE...

DRY AND QUIET WEATHER. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE E/NE
RESULTING IN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. SEA-BREEZES PROGRESSING
TOWARDS INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND AS A RESULT OF BOTH THE PRESSURE AND
THERMAL GRADIENT. FEW TO SCATTERED CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION...
BROKEN MORESO OVER THE BERKSHIRES SUBSEQUENT OF HIGHER THETA-E
AIR WRAPPING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING CLOSED LOW OUT OF THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AND CONVERGING ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

WILL KEEP WITH A DRY FORECAST WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS. HIGHS
INTO THE LOW-80S ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH A FEW LOCALES MAXING OUT
IN THE MID-80S...COOLER CONDITIONS ALONG THE SHORELINE WITH SEA-
BREEZES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...

TONIGHT...

THE APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND GRADUALLY OPENING UPPER LVL
CUTOFF...COMBINED WITH GRADUAL MOISTURE LOADING OF THE COLUMN IS
LIKELY TO LEAD TO MORE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION THAN PREVIOUS
NIGHTS. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION A SHOWER IS ABLE TO SLIDE ACROSS
THE W...BUT BOTH JET AND VORTICITY RELATED DYNAMICS ARE QUITE
WEAK AND OVERALL COLUMN MOISTURE REMAINS FAIRLY LOW UNTIL THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN A MOSTLY DRY
FORECAST EXCEPT THE EXTREME WRN FRINGES OF THE BOX CWA THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...GIVEN THE INCREASED MOISTURE /CLOUD
COVER/ AND WARMER EVENING TEMPERATURES EXPECT THAT OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS IN SPITE OF THE NEAR CALM FLOW
ONCE AGAIN. MORE WIDESPREAD MID 50S WITH EVEN SOME NORMAL HEAT
ISLANDS HOLDING IN THE LOW-MID 60S ARE EXPECTED.

THURSDAY...

INVERTED RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE...AND MAINLY E-SE FLOW EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION. THE MARINE INFLUENCE IS LIKELY TO STAVE OFF
APPROACHING WARM FRONT AS IT/S ATTENDANT UPPER LVL CUTOFF
DIMINISHES TO AN OPEN WAVE WITH CUTOFF HIGH PRES TO THE N. UPPER
LVL AND LOW LVL JETS ARE WEAK AND WITH OVERALL VORTICITY
DECREASING...THEREFORE DYNAMIC FORCING IS RELATIVELY WEAK EVEN AS
OVERALL COLUMN MOISTURE INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY /PWATS APPROACH
1.75 INCHES/. ALSO...WITH MARINE FLOW AND WARM FRONT TRAPPED TO
THE W...IT/S UNLIKELY THAT THERE WILL BE MUCH DESTABILIZATION
THROUGH THE DAY. GIVEN ALL OF THIS...THE THREAT FOR SHOWERY
ACTIVITY REMAINS FAIRLY LOW. WILL FOCUS ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS W OF
THE CT VALLEY...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO THE WORCESTER HILLS.
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD DIVE TO THE SW OF THE REGION WHERE
INSTABILITY AXIS RESIDES. HAVE KEPT THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST
WITH THIS UPDATE DUE TO THE MARINE FLOW AND MODEST LAPSE RATES.
THE ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND MARINE FLOW ARE ALSO LIKELY TO KEEP
HIGH TEMPS COOLER THAN NORMAL /MAINLY MID 70S/ DURING THE DAY THU.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
* UNCERTAINTY INCREASES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT

RATHER UNIQUE AND STABLE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN
LATE THIS WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND. 20/00Z GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...THEN MORE DIFFERENCES APPEAR EARLY
NEXT WEEK. WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR A CONSENSUS BLEND TO SMOOTH OVER
THE MORE MINOR DIFFERENCES.

HIGH PRESSURE IN QUEBEC WILL KEEP THINGS RELATIVELY DRY ACROSS MOST
OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
THURSDAY NIGHT IF SOME MOVING PARTS COME TOGETHER. MOISTURE IS THE
MAIN LIMITING FACTOR...WITH INSTABILITY A CLOSE SECOND ONCE THE SUN
SETS.

THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL SINK SOUTH THROUGH THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...EVENTUALLY DROPPING SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND
RETURNING US TO A MORE WESTERLY FLOW. A LOW PRESSURE IN ONTARIO MAY
EVENTUALLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO QUEBEC...SWINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SOMETIME TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. DEPENDING ON
AVAILABLE MOISTURE...THIS FRONT MAY INITIATE A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VFR. SEA-BREEZES CONTINUE...BECOMING LIGHT/VRB OVERNIGHT BEFORE
PREVAILING E/SE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. LOW-END VFR CIGS
SLOWLY BUILDING E ALONG WITH -RA CHANCES TOWARDS IJD-ORH-AFN. WILL
ALSO NEED TO WATCH SE MA FOR POTENTIAL +RA AND MVFR-IFR IMPACTS
BEGINNING AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE
CLOSER TO FRIDAY MORNING.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. E/SE FLOW PREVAILS. EXPECT
CONDITIONS NO LOWER THAN LOW-END VFR CIGS. -RA CHANCES MINIMAL.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. -RA CHANCES BEGIN TOWARDS
THURSDAY MORNING ALONG WITH LOW-END VFR CIGS. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE
THOUGH LOW-CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY
MVFR/IFR FOG EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THE MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER CONTINUES. WINDS REMAIN MAINLY E
TO SE WITH A FEW GUSTS AROUND 15 KT POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
OUTER EDGE OF THE S AND SE WATERS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION.
LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY OVERNIGHT FOG LIMITING VISIBILITIES. SEAS
MAY INCREASE ON THE OUTER WATERS THIS WEEKEND AS AN OCEAN STORM
PASSES WELL EAST OF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WATERS. WNA WAVE
GUIDANCE LOOKS TO BE TOO HIGH BASED ON EXPECTED WINDS...LOWERED THIS
GUIDANCE BY 20 PERCENT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY


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000
FXUS61 KOKX 201753
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
153 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ANCHORED OVER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH FOR FRIDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR THE
WEEKEND...THEN SLOWLY SLIDES OFFSHORE EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH NOON UPDATE. JUST TWEAKED TEMPS/TDS
AND REMOVED POPS FROM ORANGE CO FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

DEVELOPING SE FLOW TODAY. WITH SUBSIDENCE HANGING
ON...PARTICULARLY ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN AREAS...MOST OF THE CWA
SHOULD BE PTCLDY AND DRY. ACROSS THE FAR WRN/NWRN FRINGE...FALLING
HEIGHTS ALONG WITH UP TO 1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE PER THE NAM COULD
SPRING SOME SHRA/TSTMS. MAIN THREAT STILL W OF THE CWA WITH THE
EMBEDDED SHRTWV NOT ARRIVING TIL ABOUT 00Z.

TEMPS RIGHT ABOUT OR JUST BLW CLIMO. FCST IS CLOSE TO THE GMOS25.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
INSTABILITY WANES WITH CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW ALONG WITH A LOSS OF
SFC HEATING. THEREFORE THE SHRTWV IS EXPECTED TO HAVE A MINIMAL
EFFECT ATTM AND PRODUCE ONLY A FEW SHRA AS IT TRAVERSES THE CWA
THIS EVE/TNGT. ANY TSTMS WOULD NEED TO BE ELEVATED DUE TO THE
STABLE MARINE LAYER. AS A RESULT...HAVE NOT INCLUDED TSTMS IN THE
FCST FOR TNGT.

00Z MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE UPR LOW SPINNING OVER THE UP OF MI
WILL DROP HEIGHTS ON THU AND ATTEMPT TO TRIGGER SHRA OR TSTMS.
INSTABILITY WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR...WITH A MARINE STRATUS
DECK LIKELY PENETRATING ALMOST THE ENTIRE CWA. INCLUDED TSTMS ONLY
ON THE WRN AND NRN PERIPHERY OF THE CWA...WITH ONLY SHRA
ELSEWHERE. WHERE THE INSTABILITY DOES MATERIALIZE...THE SETUP IS
RIPE FOR MULTICELLULAR HVY RAINERS IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND PW/S
ABOUT 125-150 PERCENT OF NORMAL.

TEMPS COOLER DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH IN PLACE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH WEAK CUT OFF
UPPER LOW WEAKENING OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA
WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO THE NORTHEAST. UPPER TROUGH WILL SET OFF SOME
SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY FOR WESTERN
SECTIONS. SOME SURFACE BASED CAPE...A FEW HUNDRED TO JUST UNDER 1000
J/KG DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL YOU LOOK AT...WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH A LACK OF ANY
STRONG LIFTING MECHANISM...THE CHANCE FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DIMINISH AS THE SUN SETS.

OMEGA BLOCK IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH DRY CONDITIONS IN STORE. AN EXTENDED NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
MEAN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR FOR THE
WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S ON SATURDAY...AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER SUNDAY. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...EVEN IN THE NYC METRO REGION.

THE HIGH PUSHES OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
THE RETURN FLOW WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK UP TO MORE NORMAL
VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...BUT CONDITIONS
SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA. SCT CU 040-050 MAINLY NORTH
OF THE NY METRO OVER THE HILLIER TERRAIN.

CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL PA AND WESTERN NY WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING
AS IT APPROACHES THE PA/NJ BOARDER TOWARDS 03Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS
COULD REACH THE NY METRO TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. THESE ARE NOT INCLUDED
IN TAFS AS THE PROBABILITY OF THIS IS ONLY 30% AT THIS TIME AND
THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT FLIGHT CATEGORY.

THURSDAY MORNING COULD START OFF WITH SOME CIGS AROUND 030...THESE
SHOULD RISE SLIGHTLY TO AT LEAST 035-040 BY AFTERNOON.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS THIS AFTN. SPEED
AVERAGE JUST BELOW 10 KT...THOUGH EXPECT OCNL 10-12 KT DURING
FOR THE LATE AFTN DEPARTURE BANK.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION WILL VARY 20 DEGREES OF THE
FCST MEAN.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION BEING
30-40 DEGREES RIGHT OF 130 MAGNETIC THIS AFTERNOON.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THU THROUGH MON...
.THU AFTN-NGT...VFR. SCATTERED TSTMS MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE NY
METRO.
.FRI-MON...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS THRU THU. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED
FRI THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. A PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
WILL ALLOW WAVES TO BUILD TO 5 FT FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
OCEAN ZONE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY. GUSTS ON
SATURDAY WILL REACH THE LOWER 20 KT RANGE...AND SLIGHTLY LESS ON
SUNDAY. GUSTS AT OR JUST ABOVE 25 KT ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE
WEEKEND...BUT DOES NOT LOOK LIKELY AS OF NOW. GUSTS DIMINISH INTO
THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FEW TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE THU...MAINLY ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY
INTO NJ AWAY FROM THE COAST. ANY TSTMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE LOCALLY HVY RAIN...HOWEVER BASIN AVE PCPN OF LESS THAN 1/4
INCH IS EXPECTED ATTM. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MINOR POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING FROM ANY OF THIS TSTM ACTIVITY.

NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/JP
NEAR TERM...JMC/PICCA/JP
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...TONGUE/PW
MARINE...JMC/JP
HYDROLOGY...JMC/JP








000
FXUS61 KOKX 201753
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
153 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ANCHORED OVER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH FOR FRIDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR THE
WEEKEND...THEN SLOWLY SLIDES OFFSHORE EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH NOON UPDATE. JUST TWEAKED TEMPS/TDS
AND REMOVED POPS FROM ORANGE CO FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

DEVELOPING SE FLOW TODAY. WITH SUBSIDENCE HANGING
ON...PARTICULARLY ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN AREAS...MOST OF THE CWA
SHOULD BE PTCLDY AND DRY. ACROSS THE FAR WRN/NWRN FRINGE...FALLING
HEIGHTS ALONG WITH UP TO 1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE PER THE NAM COULD
SPRING SOME SHRA/TSTMS. MAIN THREAT STILL W OF THE CWA WITH THE
EMBEDDED SHRTWV NOT ARRIVING TIL ABOUT 00Z.

TEMPS RIGHT ABOUT OR JUST BLW CLIMO. FCST IS CLOSE TO THE GMOS25.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
INSTABILITY WANES WITH CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW ALONG WITH A LOSS OF
SFC HEATING. THEREFORE THE SHRTWV IS EXPECTED TO HAVE A MINIMAL
EFFECT ATTM AND PRODUCE ONLY A FEW SHRA AS IT TRAVERSES THE CWA
THIS EVE/TNGT. ANY TSTMS WOULD NEED TO BE ELEVATED DUE TO THE
STABLE MARINE LAYER. AS A RESULT...HAVE NOT INCLUDED TSTMS IN THE
FCST FOR TNGT.

00Z MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE UPR LOW SPINNING OVER THE UP OF MI
WILL DROP HEIGHTS ON THU AND ATTEMPT TO TRIGGER SHRA OR TSTMS.
INSTABILITY WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR...WITH A MARINE STRATUS
DECK LIKELY PENETRATING ALMOST THE ENTIRE CWA. INCLUDED TSTMS ONLY
ON THE WRN AND NRN PERIPHERY OF THE CWA...WITH ONLY SHRA
ELSEWHERE. WHERE THE INSTABILITY DOES MATERIALIZE...THE SETUP IS
RIPE FOR MULTICELLULAR HVY RAINERS IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND PW/S
ABOUT 125-150 PERCENT OF NORMAL.

TEMPS COOLER DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH IN PLACE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH WEAK CUT OFF
UPPER LOW WEAKENING OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA
WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO THE NORTHEAST. UPPER TROUGH WILL SET OFF SOME
SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY FOR WESTERN
SECTIONS. SOME SURFACE BASED CAPE...A FEW HUNDRED TO JUST UNDER 1000
J/KG DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL YOU LOOK AT...WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH A LACK OF ANY
STRONG LIFTING MECHANISM...THE CHANCE FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DIMINISH AS THE SUN SETS.

OMEGA BLOCK IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH DRY CONDITIONS IN STORE. AN EXTENDED NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
MEAN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR FOR THE
WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S ON SATURDAY...AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER SUNDAY. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...EVEN IN THE NYC METRO REGION.

THE HIGH PUSHES OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
THE RETURN FLOW WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK UP TO MORE NORMAL
VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...BUT CONDITIONS
SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA. SCT CU 040-050 MAINLY NORTH
OF THE NY METRO OVER THE HILLIER TERRAIN.

CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL PA AND WESTERN NY WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING
AS IT APPROACHES THE PA/NJ BOARDER TOWARDS 03Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS
COULD REACH THE NY METRO TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. THESE ARE NOT INCLUDED
IN TAFS AS THE PROBABILITY OF THIS IS ONLY 30% AT THIS TIME AND
THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT FLIGHT CATEGORY.

THURSDAY MORNING COULD START OFF WITH SOME CIGS AROUND 030...THESE
SHOULD RISE SLIGHTLY TO AT LEAST 035-040 BY AFTERNOON.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS THIS AFTN. SPEED
AVERAGE JUST BELOW 10 KT...THOUGH EXPECT OCNL 10-12 KT DURING
FOR THE LATE AFTN DEPARTURE BANK.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION WILL VARY 20 DEGREES OF THE
FCST MEAN.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION BEING
30-40 DEGREES RIGHT OF 130 MAGNETIC THIS AFTERNOON.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THU THROUGH MON...
.THU AFTN-NGT...VFR. SCATTERED TSTMS MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE NY
METRO.
.FRI-MON...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS THRU THU. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED
FRI THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. A PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
WILL ALLOW WAVES TO BUILD TO 5 FT FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
OCEAN ZONE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY. GUSTS ON
SATURDAY WILL REACH THE LOWER 20 KT RANGE...AND SLIGHTLY LESS ON
SUNDAY. GUSTS AT OR JUST ABOVE 25 KT ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE
WEEKEND...BUT DOES NOT LOOK LIKELY AS OF NOW. GUSTS DIMINISH INTO
THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FEW TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE THU...MAINLY ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY
INTO NJ AWAY FROM THE COAST. ANY TSTMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE LOCALLY HVY RAIN...HOWEVER BASIN AVE PCPN OF LESS THAN 1/4
INCH IS EXPECTED ATTM. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MINOR POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING FROM ANY OF THIS TSTM ACTIVITY.

NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/JP
NEAR TERM...JMC/PICCA/JP
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...TONGUE/PW
MARINE...JMC/JP
HYDROLOGY...JMC/JP








  [top]

000
FXUS61 KALY 201722
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
122 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL
BEGIN TO IMPACT OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. AS THIS SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES
SOUTHEAST...IT WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AT 1230 PM EDT...STILL NO CONVECTION ANYWHERE IN OUR AREA. ACTUALLY
WE ARE STILL DEALING WITH SOME LEFTOVER STRATUS CLOUDS WHICH ARE
EITHER SLOWLY BURNING OFF OR BECOME CU.

DEWPOINTS HAVE CREPT UP INTO THE 60S SO THERE IS SOME MOISTURE TO
SPAWN A RANDOM THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY. FURTHER EAST...WE ARE CAPPED SO ANY CONVECTION WILL LIKELY
NOT HAPPEN UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE DAY.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO THE
WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY WHERE CAPES COULD CLIMB TO NEAR 1000
J/KG BY DAY/S END. THE WIND FIELDS ARE WEAK AND SO ARE THE LAPSE
RATES SO STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT LIKELY TO HAPPEN.

FOR THIS UPDATE...JUST MADE SOME ADDITIONAL MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE CLOUD COVER AND POPS (TRIMMING THEM A LITTLE THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON). OTHERWISE THE ON GOING FORECAST LOOKED IN GREAT SHAPE.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE FEATURE MOVING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS IT SLOWLY SLIDES OFF
THE EAST COAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. ON FRIDAY...CONDITIONS
WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT AS DRIER AIR TRIES TO FILTER INTO THE REGION
FROM NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WHICH WILL BE THE RESULT OF THE FLOW
AROUND A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

FROM TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY LIKELY POPS ARE
FORECAST FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY WESTWARD...AND CHANCE POPS FURTHER
EAST. AS THE SYSTEM SLIDES OFF THE EAST COAST...POPS ARE FORECAST TO
DECREASE THURSDAY NIGHT...LOWERING TO ONLY 20 PERCENT ON FRIDAY.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN THE PAST FEW NIGHTS
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE
70S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGHS FRIDAY
IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A TRANQUIL EXTENDED FORECAST IS ANTICIPATED FOR ERN NY AND WRN NEW
ENGLAND WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM ERN QUEBEC...NEW
BRUNSWICK...AND NRN NEW ENGLAND EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...AND LASTING
INTO THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS
AND FAIR WEATHER.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...A REX TYPE BLOCK SETS UP OVER ERN
CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST WITH A CLOSED H500 ANTICYCLONE OVER N-CNTRL
QUEBEC...AND DOWNSTREAM OF JAMES BAY.  A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH SETS
UP OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND JUST SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND.
THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY AND UPPER MID ATLANTIC REGION MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD SHOWERS
NEAR THE CATSKILLS FRIDAY EVENING...BUT MOST OF THE AREA WILL STAY
DRY.  THE BLOCKING RIDGE STRENGTHENS ON SATURDAY WITH THE SFC
ANTICYCLONE NEAR THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE AND NEW BRUNSWICK.  H850
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE +10C TO +12C RANGE WITH THE ONSHORE
FLOW.  LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U60S TO L70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.  WITH
THE ONSHORE FLOW...SOME STRATUS IS POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING BEFORE
BURNING OFF BEFORE NOONTIME.

SATURDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE IN
FROM NEW BRUNSWICK AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  A BROAD CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL LOW FORMS SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA.  OUR FCST AREA WILL BE
SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE DOWNSTREAM CUTOFF AND A BROADER HIGH
AMPLITUDE H500 ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE PLAINS.  THE H500 RIDGE
ACTUALLY BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES
REGION AND SE CANADA.  DRY WX IS EXPECTED BASED ON THE LATEST
ECMWF/GFS/WPC/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...AS THE UPSTREAM RIDGE LOOKS TO
DOMINATE WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS EXPECTED WITH M60S TO L70S FOR HIGHS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND MID TO U70S AND PERHAPS SOME L80S OVER
THE VALLEYS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK /TUESDAY/.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S
WITH SOME SPOTTY U40S OVER THE HIGH PEAKS.  HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY COMFORTABLE WITH SFC DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN
THE 50S TO L60S.  AN ONSHORE FLOW OF MARITIME AIR WILL IMPACT THE
REGION WITH THE SFC HIGH SITUATED TO THE NORTH AND EAST....AND SOME
MORNING STRATUS IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY.  A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY KICK
OFF A FEW SPRINKLES OR ISOLD SHOWERS OVER THE SRN DACKS BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BUT OVERALL FAIR AND DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO DOMINATE INTO
THE MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEAK WARM FRONT IS APPROACHING THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH A SFC WAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

SCATTERED/BROKEN CUMULUS ABOVE 3500 FEET AND MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
WILL BE AROUND THIS AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH A
MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT WILL BE AFTER
23Z. VCSH GROUPS WERE PLACED IN THE FCST AT ALL THE TAF SITES
BETWEEN 23Z-02Z THURSDAY. A BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL/WESTERN NY IS SLOWLY TRACKING EAST AND IS
TIMED TO REACH THE HUDSON VALLEY...AND THE TAF SITES...ASSOCIATED
WITH MVFR/VFR CEILINGS ABD VISIBILITIES WILL BE AROUND OR JUST
AFTER MIDNIGHT WHERE PROB 30 ARE INDICATED DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY
IN COVERAGE AND TIMING. THE TIMING OF THE END OF THE SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS IN QUESTION...SO INDICATING MVFR IN FOG
AND CEILINGS 11Z-14Z...WITH VCSH...THEN VFR VISIBILITIES BUT
CONTINUED MVFR CEILINGS AFTER 14Z-15Z.

THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 4-8 KTS
THIS AFTERNOON. THEY WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION
TONIGHT AND VARIABLE TO SOUTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KT TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRI NIGHT-SUN: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A SLOW
MOVING AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS  WILL BE TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND WESTERN AND
CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

MINIMUM RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE BETWEEN 45 AND 60 PERCENT
AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE 60S IN MOST AREAS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS OF AROUND
15 MPH. RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS AT THIS TIME.
THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A
SLOW MOVING AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION. THE
HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND WESTERN AND
CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY INCLUDING THE CATSKILLS. UP TO AN INCH OF
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. DUE
TO LOW RIVER LEVELS AND FAIRLY DRY SOIL CONDITIONS...THERE WILL BE
LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/NAS
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/GJM/NAS
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM








000
FXUS61 KALY 201722
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
122 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL
BEGIN TO IMPACT OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. AS THIS SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES
SOUTHEAST...IT WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AT 1230 PM EDT...STILL NO CONVECTION ANYWHERE IN OUR AREA. ACTUALLY
WE ARE STILL DEALING WITH SOME LEFTOVER STRATUS CLOUDS WHICH ARE
EITHER SLOWLY BURNING OFF OR BECOME CU.

DEWPOINTS HAVE CREPT UP INTO THE 60S SO THERE IS SOME MOISTURE TO
SPAWN A RANDOM THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY. FURTHER EAST...WE ARE CAPPED SO ANY CONVECTION WILL LIKELY
NOT HAPPEN UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE DAY.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO THE
WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY WHERE CAPES COULD CLIMB TO NEAR 1000
J/KG BY DAY/S END. THE WIND FIELDS ARE WEAK AND SO ARE THE LAPSE
RATES SO STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT LIKELY TO HAPPEN.

FOR THIS UPDATE...JUST MADE SOME ADDITIONAL MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE CLOUD COVER AND POPS (TRIMMING THEM A LITTLE THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON). OTHERWISE THE ON GOING FORECAST LOOKED IN GREAT SHAPE.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE FEATURE MOVING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS IT SLOWLY SLIDES OFF
THE EAST COAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. ON FRIDAY...CONDITIONS
WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT AS DRIER AIR TRIES TO FILTER INTO THE REGION
FROM NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WHICH WILL BE THE RESULT OF THE FLOW
AROUND A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

FROM TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY LIKELY POPS ARE
FORECAST FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY WESTWARD...AND CHANCE POPS FURTHER
EAST. AS THE SYSTEM SLIDES OFF THE EAST COAST...POPS ARE FORECAST TO
DECREASE THURSDAY NIGHT...LOWERING TO ONLY 20 PERCENT ON FRIDAY.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN THE PAST FEW NIGHTS
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE
70S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGHS FRIDAY
IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A TRANQUIL EXTENDED FORECAST IS ANTICIPATED FOR ERN NY AND WRN NEW
ENGLAND WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM ERN QUEBEC...NEW
BRUNSWICK...AND NRN NEW ENGLAND EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...AND LASTING
INTO THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS
AND FAIR WEATHER.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...A REX TYPE BLOCK SETS UP OVER ERN
CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST WITH A CLOSED H500 ANTICYCLONE OVER N-CNTRL
QUEBEC...AND DOWNSTREAM OF JAMES BAY.  A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH SETS
UP OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND JUST SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND.
THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY AND UPPER MID ATLANTIC REGION MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD SHOWERS
NEAR THE CATSKILLS FRIDAY EVENING...BUT MOST OF THE AREA WILL STAY
DRY.  THE BLOCKING RIDGE STRENGTHENS ON SATURDAY WITH THE SFC
ANTICYCLONE NEAR THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE AND NEW BRUNSWICK.  H850
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE +10C TO +12C RANGE WITH THE ONSHORE
FLOW.  LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U60S TO L70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.  WITH
THE ONSHORE FLOW...SOME STRATUS IS POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING BEFORE
BURNING OFF BEFORE NOONTIME.

SATURDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE IN
FROM NEW BRUNSWICK AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  A BROAD CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL LOW FORMS SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA.  OUR FCST AREA WILL BE
SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE DOWNSTREAM CUTOFF AND A BROADER HIGH
AMPLITUDE H500 ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE PLAINS.  THE H500 RIDGE
ACTUALLY BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES
REGION AND SE CANADA.  DRY WX IS EXPECTED BASED ON THE LATEST
ECMWF/GFS/WPC/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...AS THE UPSTREAM RIDGE LOOKS TO
DOMINATE WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS EXPECTED WITH M60S TO L70S FOR HIGHS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND MID TO U70S AND PERHAPS SOME L80S OVER
THE VALLEYS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK /TUESDAY/.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S
WITH SOME SPOTTY U40S OVER THE HIGH PEAKS.  HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY COMFORTABLE WITH SFC DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN
THE 50S TO L60S.  AN ONSHORE FLOW OF MARITIME AIR WILL IMPACT THE
REGION WITH THE SFC HIGH SITUATED TO THE NORTH AND EAST....AND SOME
MORNING STRATUS IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY.  A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY KICK
OFF A FEW SPRINKLES OR ISOLD SHOWERS OVER THE SRN DACKS BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BUT OVERALL FAIR AND DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO DOMINATE INTO
THE MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEAK WARM FRONT IS APPROACHING THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH A SFC WAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

SCATTERED/BROKEN CUMULUS ABOVE 3500 FEET AND MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
WILL BE AROUND THIS AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH A
MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT WILL BE AFTER
23Z. VCSH GROUPS WERE PLACED IN THE FCST AT ALL THE TAF SITES
BETWEEN 23Z-02Z THURSDAY. A BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL/WESTERN NY IS SLOWLY TRACKING EAST AND IS
TIMED TO REACH THE HUDSON VALLEY...AND THE TAF SITES...ASSOCIATED
WITH MVFR/VFR CEILINGS ABD VISIBILITIES WILL BE AROUND OR JUST
AFTER MIDNIGHT WHERE PROB 30 ARE INDICATED DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY
IN COVERAGE AND TIMING. THE TIMING OF THE END OF THE SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS IN QUESTION...SO INDICATING MVFR IN FOG
AND CEILINGS 11Z-14Z...WITH VCSH...THEN VFR VISIBILITIES BUT
CONTINUED MVFR CEILINGS AFTER 14Z-15Z.

THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 4-8 KTS
THIS AFTERNOON. THEY WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION
TONIGHT AND VARIABLE TO SOUTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KT TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRI NIGHT-SUN: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A SLOW
MOVING AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS  WILL BE TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND WESTERN AND
CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

MINIMUM RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE BETWEEN 45 AND 60 PERCENT
AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE 60S IN MOST AREAS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS OF AROUND
15 MPH. RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS AT THIS TIME.
THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A
SLOW MOVING AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION. THE
HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND WESTERN AND
CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY INCLUDING THE CATSKILLS. UP TO AN INCH OF
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. DUE
TO LOW RIVER LEVELS AND FAIRLY DRY SOIL CONDITIONS...THERE WILL BE
LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/NAS
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/GJM/NAS
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM









000
FXUS61 KALY 201635
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1230 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL
BEGIN TO IMPACT OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. AS THIS SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES
SOUTHEAST...IT WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AT 1230 PM EDT...STILL NO CONVECTION ANYWHERE IN OUR AREA. ACTUALLY
WE ARE STILL DEALING WITH SOME LEFTOVER STRATUS CLOUDS WHICH ARE
EITHER SLOWLY BURNING OFF OR BECOME CU.

DEWPOINTS HAVE CREPT UP INTO THE 60S SO THERE IS SOME MOISTURE TO
SPAWN A RANDOM THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY. FURTHER EAST...WE ARE CAPPED SO ANY CONVECTION WILL LIKELY
NOT HAPPEN UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE DAY.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO THE
WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY WHERE CAPES COULD CLIMB TO NEAR 1000
J/KG BY DAY/S END. THE WIND FIELDS ARE WEAK AND SO ARE THE LAPSE
RATES SO STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT LIKELY TO HAPPEN.

FOR THIS UPDATE...JUST MADE SOME ADDITIONAL MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE CLOUD COVER AND POPS (TRIMMING THEM A LITTLE THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON). OTHERWISE THE ON GOING FORECAST LOOKED IN GREAT SHAPE.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE FEATURE MOVING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS IT SLOWLY SLIDES OFF
THE EAST COAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. ON FRIDAY...CONDITIONS
WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT AS DRIER AIR TRIES TO FILTER INTO THE REGION
FROM NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WHICH WILL BE THE RESULT OF THE FLOW
AROUND A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

FROM TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY LIKELY POPS ARE
FORECAST FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY WESTWARD...AND CHANCE POPS FURTHER
EAST. AS THE SYSTEM SLIDES OFF THE EAST COAST...POPS ARE FORECAST TO
DECREASE THURSDAY NIGHT...LOWERING TO ONLY 20 PERCENT ON FRIDAY.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN THE PAST FEW NIGHTS
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE
70S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGHS FRIDAY
IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A TRANQUIL EXTENDED FORECAST IS ANTICIPATED FOR ERN NY AND WRN NEW
ENGLAND WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM ERN QUEBEC...NEW
BRUNSWICK...AND NRN NEW ENGLAND EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...AND LASTING
INTO THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS
AND FAIR WEATHER.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...A REX TYPE BLOCK SETS UP OVER ERN
CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST WITH A CLOSED H500 ANTICYCLONE OVER N-CNTRL
QUEBEC...AND DOWNSTREAM OF JAMES BAY.  A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH SETS
UP OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND JUST SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND.
THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY AND UPPER MID ATLANTIC REGION MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD SHOWERS
NEAR THE CATSKILLS FRIDAY EVENING...BUT MOST OF THE AREA WILL STAY
DRY.  THE BLOCKING RIDGE STRENGTHENS ON SATURDAY WITH THE SFC
ANTICYCLONE NEAR THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE AND NEW BRUNSWICK.  H850
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE +10C TO +12C RANGE WITH THE ONSHORE
FLOW.  LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U60S TO L70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.  WITH
THE ONSHORE FLOW...SOME STRATUS IS POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING BEFORE
BURNING OFF BEFORE NOONTIME.

SATURDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE IN
FROM NEW BRUNSWICK AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  A BROAD CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL LOW FORMS SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA.  OUR FCST AREA WILL BE
SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE DOWNSTREAM CUTOFF AND A BROADER HIGH
AMPLITUDE H500 ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE PLAINS.  THE H500 RIDGE
ACTUALLY BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES
REGION AND SE CANADA.  DRY WX IS EXPECTED BASED ON THE LATEST
ECMWF/GFS/WPC/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...AS THE UPSTREAM RIDGE LOOKS TO
DOMINATE WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS EXPECTED WITH M60S TO L70S FOR HIGHS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND MID TO U70S AND PERHAPS SOME L80S OVER
THE VALLEYS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK /TUESDAY/.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S
WITH SOME SPOTTY U40S OVER THE HIGH PEAKS.  HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY COMFORTABLE WITH SFC DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN
THE 50S TO L60S.  AN ONSHORE FLOW OF MARITIME AIR WILL IMPACT THE
REGION WITH THE SFC HIGH SITUATED TO THE NORTH AND EAST....AND SOME
MORNING STRATUS IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY.  A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY KICK
OFF A FEW SPRINKLES OR ISOLD SHOWERS OVER THE SRN DACKS BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BUT OVERALL FAIR AND DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO DOMINATE INTO
THE MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED OFFSHORE...AND A WEAK WARM FRONT IS
APPROACHING THE REGION THIS MORNING. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH
A SFC WAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM
THE WEST TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING WITH SOME MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE AT KPOU PRIOR TO NOONTIME. SCT-BKN CUMULUS 3.5-5 KFT AGL
AND MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND IN THE AFTERNOON. THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF THE
OCCLUDED FRONT WILL BE AFTER 23Z. VCSH GROUPS WERE PLACED IN THE
FCST AT ALL THE TAF SITES BTWN 23Z TO 02Z/THU. THE BETTER CHANCE
OF SHOWERS WITH MVFR/VFR CIGS VSBYS WILL BE SHORTLY BEFORE OR JUST
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM THIS MORNING...AND THEN INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 4-8 KTS. THEY WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE IN DIRECTION TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRI NIGHT-SUN: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A SLOW
MOVING AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS  WILL BE TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND WESTERN AND
CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

MINIMUM RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE BETWEEN 45 AND 60 PERCENT
AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE 60S IN MOST AREAS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS OF AROUND
15 MPH. RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS AT THIS TIME.
THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A
SLOW MOVING AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION. THE
HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND WESTERN AND
CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY INCLUDING THE CATSKILLS. UP TO AN INCH OF
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. DUE
TO LOW RIVER LEVELS AND FAIRLY DRY SOIL CONDITIONS...THERE WILL BE
LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/NAS
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/GJM/NAS
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM









000
FXUS61 KALY 201635
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1230 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL
BEGIN TO IMPACT OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. AS THIS SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES
SOUTHEAST...IT WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AT 1230 PM EDT...STILL NO CONVECTION ANYWHERE IN OUR AREA. ACTUALLY
WE ARE STILL DEALING WITH SOME LEFTOVER STRATUS CLOUDS WHICH ARE
EITHER SLOWLY BURNING OFF OR BECOME CU.

DEWPOINTS HAVE CREPT UP INTO THE 60S SO THERE IS SOME MOISTURE TO
SPAWN A RANDOM THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY. FURTHER EAST...WE ARE CAPPED SO ANY CONVECTION WILL LIKELY
NOT HAPPEN UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE DAY.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO THE
WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY WHERE CAPES COULD CLIMB TO NEAR 1000
J/KG BY DAY/S END. THE WIND FIELDS ARE WEAK AND SO ARE THE LAPSE
RATES SO STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT LIKELY TO HAPPEN.

FOR THIS UPDATE...JUST MADE SOME ADDITIONAL MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE CLOUD COVER AND POPS (TRIMMING THEM A LITTLE THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON). OTHERWISE THE ON GOING FORECAST LOOKED IN GREAT SHAPE.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE FEATURE MOVING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS IT SLOWLY SLIDES OFF
THE EAST COAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. ON FRIDAY...CONDITIONS
WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT AS DRIER AIR TRIES TO FILTER INTO THE REGION
FROM NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WHICH WILL BE THE RESULT OF THE FLOW
AROUND A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

FROM TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY LIKELY POPS ARE
FORECAST FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY WESTWARD...AND CHANCE POPS FURTHER
EAST. AS THE SYSTEM SLIDES OFF THE EAST COAST...POPS ARE FORECAST TO
DECREASE THURSDAY NIGHT...LOWERING TO ONLY 20 PERCENT ON FRIDAY.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN THE PAST FEW NIGHTS
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE
70S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGHS FRIDAY
IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A TRANQUIL EXTENDED FORECAST IS ANTICIPATED FOR ERN NY AND WRN NEW
ENGLAND WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM ERN QUEBEC...NEW
BRUNSWICK...AND NRN NEW ENGLAND EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...AND LASTING
INTO THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS
AND FAIR WEATHER.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...A REX TYPE BLOCK SETS UP OVER ERN
CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST WITH A CLOSED H500 ANTICYCLONE OVER N-CNTRL
QUEBEC...AND DOWNSTREAM OF JAMES BAY.  A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH SETS
UP OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND JUST SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND.
THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY AND UPPER MID ATLANTIC REGION MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD SHOWERS
NEAR THE CATSKILLS FRIDAY EVENING...BUT MOST OF THE AREA WILL STAY
DRY.  THE BLOCKING RIDGE STRENGTHENS ON SATURDAY WITH THE SFC
ANTICYCLONE NEAR THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE AND NEW BRUNSWICK.  H850
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE +10C TO +12C RANGE WITH THE ONSHORE
FLOW.  LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U60S TO L70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.  WITH
THE ONSHORE FLOW...SOME STRATUS IS POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING BEFORE
BURNING OFF BEFORE NOONTIME.

SATURDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE IN
FROM NEW BRUNSWICK AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  A BROAD CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL LOW FORMS SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA.  OUR FCST AREA WILL BE
SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE DOWNSTREAM CUTOFF AND A BROADER HIGH
AMPLITUDE H500 ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE PLAINS.  THE H500 RIDGE
ACTUALLY BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES
REGION AND SE CANADA.  DRY WX IS EXPECTED BASED ON THE LATEST
ECMWF/GFS/WPC/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...AS THE UPSTREAM RIDGE LOOKS TO
DOMINATE WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS EXPECTED WITH M60S TO L70S FOR HIGHS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND MID TO U70S AND PERHAPS SOME L80S OVER
THE VALLEYS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK /TUESDAY/.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S
WITH SOME SPOTTY U40S OVER THE HIGH PEAKS.  HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY COMFORTABLE WITH SFC DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN
THE 50S TO L60S.  AN ONSHORE FLOW OF MARITIME AIR WILL IMPACT THE
REGION WITH THE SFC HIGH SITUATED TO THE NORTH AND EAST....AND SOME
MORNING STRATUS IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY.  A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY KICK
OFF A FEW SPRINKLES OR ISOLD SHOWERS OVER THE SRN DACKS BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BUT OVERALL FAIR AND DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO DOMINATE INTO
THE MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED OFFSHORE...AND A WEAK WARM FRONT IS
APPROACHING THE REGION THIS MORNING. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH
A SFC WAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM
THE WEST TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING WITH SOME MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE AT KPOU PRIOR TO NOONTIME. SCT-BKN CUMULUS 3.5-5 KFT AGL
AND MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND IN THE AFTERNOON. THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF THE
OCCLUDED FRONT WILL BE AFTER 23Z. VCSH GROUPS WERE PLACED IN THE
FCST AT ALL THE TAF SITES BTWN 23Z TO 02Z/THU. THE BETTER CHANCE
OF SHOWERS WITH MVFR/VFR CIGS VSBYS WILL BE SHORTLY BEFORE OR JUST
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM THIS MORNING...AND THEN INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 4-8 KTS. THEY WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE IN DIRECTION TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRI NIGHT-SUN: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A SLOW
MOVING AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS  WILL BE TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND WESTERN AND
CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

MINIMUM RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE BETWEEN 45 AND 60 PERCENT
AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE 60S IN MOST AREAS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS OF AROUND
15 MPH. RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS AT THIS TIME.
THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A
SLOW MOVING AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION. THE
HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND WESTERN AND
CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY INCLUDING THE CATSKILLS. UP TO AN INCH OF
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. DUE
TO LOW RIVER LEVELS AND FAIRLY DRY SOIL CONDITIONS...THERE WILL BE
LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/NAS
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/GJM/NAS
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM










000
FXUS61 KOKX 201543
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1143 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ANCHORED OVER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH FOR FRIDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR THE
WEEKEND...THEN SLOWLY SLIDES OFFSHORE EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER IS BREAKING UP ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
THIS MORNING...COINCIDENT WITH MIXING FROM DIURNAL HEATING AND
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS NE NJ AND THE WESTERN
LOWER HUDSON WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE...SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL REMAIN...SLOWLY
TURNING PARTLY CLOUDY LATER TODAY.

DEVELOPING SE FLOW TODAY. WITH SUBSIDENCE HANGING
ON...PARTICULARLY ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN AREAS...MOST OF THE CWA
SHOULD BE PTCLDY AND DRY. ACROSS THE FAR WRN/NWRN FRINGE...FALLING
HEIGHTS ALONG WITH UP TO 1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE PER THE NAM COULD
SPRING SOME SHRA/TSTMS. MAIN THREAT STILL W OF THE CWA WITH THE
EMBEDDED SHRTWV NOT ARRIVING TIL ABOUT 00Z.

TEMPS RIGHT ABOUT OR JUST BLW CLIMO. FCST IS CLOSE TO THE GMOS25.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
INSTABILITY WANES WITH CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW ALONG WITH A LOSS OF
SFC HEATING. THEREFORE THE SHRTWV IS EXPECTED TO HAVE A MINIMAL
EFFECT ATTM AND PRODUCE ONLY A FEW SHRA AS IT TRAVERSES THE CWA
THIS EVE/TNGT. ANY TSTMS WOULD NEED TO BE ELEVATED DUE TO THE
STABLE MARINE LAYER. AS A RESULT...HAVE NOT INCLUDED TSTMS IN THE
FCST FOR TNGT.

00Z MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE UPR LOW SPINNING OVER THE UP OF MI
WILL DROP HEIGHTS ON THU AND ATTEMPT TO TRIGGER SHRA OR TSTMS.
INSTABILITY WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR...WITH A MARINE STRATUS
DECK LIKELY PENETRATING ALMOST THE ENTIRE CWA. INCLUDED TSTMS ONLY
ON THE WRN AND NRN PERIPHERY OF THE CWA...WITH ONLY SHRA
ELSEWHERE. WHERE THE INSTABILITY DOES MATERIALIZE...THE SETUP IS
RIPE FOR MULTICELLULAR HVY RAINERS IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND PW/S
ABOUT 125-150 PERCENT OF NORMAL.

TEMPS COOLER DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH IN PLACE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH WEAK CUT OFF
UPPER LOW WEAKENING OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA
WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO THE NORTHEAST. UPPER TROUGH WILL SET OFF SOME
SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY FOR WESTERN
SECTIONS. SOME SURFACE BASED CAPE...A FEW HUNDRED TO JUST UNDER 1000
J/KG DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL YOU LOOK AT...WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH A LACK OF ANY
STRONG LIFTING MECHANISM...THE CHANCE FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DIMINISH AS THE SUN SETS.

OMEGA BLOCK IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH DRY CONDITIONS IN STORE. AN EXTENDED NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
MEAN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR FOR THE
WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S ON SATURDAY...AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER SUNDAY. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...EVEN IN THE NYC METRO REGION.

THE HIGH PUSHES OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
THE RETURN FLOW WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK UP TO MORE NORMAL
VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...BUT CONDITIONS
SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA. SCT CU 040-050 WEST
OF THE HUDSON THIS AFTERNOON.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS BEING 20-40 DEGREES
RIGHT OF 130 MAGNETIC. SPEED AVERAGE JUST BELOW 10 KT...THOUGH
EXPECT OCNL 10-12 KT SPEEDS DURING FOR THE LATE AFTN DEPARTURE
BANK.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION WILL VARY 20 DEGREES OF THE
FCST MEAN.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION BEING
20-30 DEGREES RIGHT OF 130 MAGNETIC THIS AFTERNOON.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THU THROUGH SUN...
.THU...GENERALLY VFR...ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE
ACROSS NYC METRO AND LOWER HUDSON VALLEY TERMINALS COULD RESULT IN
LOWER CONDITIONS
.FRI-SUN...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS THRU THU. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED
FRI THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. A PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
WILL ALLOW WAVES TO BUILD TO 5 FT FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
OCEAN ZONE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY. GUSTS ON
SATURDAY WILL REACH THE LOWER 20 KT RANGE...AND SLIGHTLY LESS ON
SUNDAY. GUSTS AT OR JUST ABOVE 25 KT ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE
WEEKEND...BUT DOES NOT LOOK LIKELY AS OF NOW. GUSTS DIMINISH INTO
THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FEW TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE THU...MAINLY ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY
INTO NJ AWAY FROM THE COAST. ANY TSTMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE LOCALLY HVY RAIN...HOWEVER BASIN AVE PCPN OF LESS THAN 1/4
INCH IS EXPECTED ATTM. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MINOR POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING FROM ANY OF THIS TSTM ACTIVITY.

NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/JP
NEAR TERM...JMC/PICCA/JP
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...TONGUE/PW
MARINE...JMC/JP
HYDROLOGY...JMC/JP






000
FXUS61 KOKX 201543
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1143 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ANCHORED OVER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH FOR FRIDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR THE
WEEKEND...THEN SLOWLY SLIDES OFFSHORE EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER IS BREAKING UP ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
THIS MORNING...COINCIDENT WITH MIXING FROM DIURNAL HEATING AND
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS NE NJ AND THE WESTERN
LOWER HUDSON WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE...SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL REMAIN...SLOWLY
TURNING PARTLY CLOUDY LATER TODAY.

DEVELOPING SE FLOW TODAY. WITH SUBSIDENCE HANGING
ON...PARTICULARLY ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN AREAS...MOST OF THE CWA
SHOULD BE PTCLDY AND DRY. ACROSS THE FAR WRN/NWRN FRINGE...FALLING
HEIGHTS ALONG WITH UP TO 1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE PER THE NAM COULD
SPRING SOME SHRA/TSTMS. MAIN THREAT STILL W OF THE CWA WITH THE
EMBEDDED SHRTWV NOT ARRIVING TIL ABOUT 00Z.

TEMPS RIGHT ABOUT OR JUST BLW CLIMO. FCST IS CLOSE TO THE GMOS25.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
INSTABILITY WANES WITH CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW ALONG WITH A LOSS OF
SFC HEATING. THEREFORE THE SHRTWV IS EXPECTED TO HAVE A MINIMAL
EFFECT ATTM AND PRODUCE ONLY A FEW SHRA AS IT TRAVERSES THE CWA
THIS EVE/TNGT. ANY TSTMS WOULD NEED TO BE ELEVATED DUE TO THE
STABLE MARINE LAYER. AS A RESULT...HAVE NOT INCLUDED TSTMS IN THE
FCST FOR TNGT.

00Z MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE UPR LOW SPINNING OVER THE UP OF MI
WILL DROP HEIGHTS ON THU AND ATTEMPT TO TRIGGER SHRA OR TSTMS.
INSTABILITY WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR...WITH A MARINE STRATUS
DECK LIKELY PENETRATING ALMOST THE ENTIRE CWA. INCLUDED TSTMS ONLY
ON THE WRN AND NRN PERIPHERY OF THE CWA...WITH ONLY SHRA
ELSEWHERE. WHERE THE INSTABILITY DOES MATERIALIZE...THE SETUP IS
RIPE FOR MULTICELLULAR HVY RAINERS IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND PW/S
ABOUT 125-150 PERCENT OF NORMAL.

TEMPS COOLER DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH IN PLACE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH WEAK CUT OFF
UPPER LOW WEAKENING OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA
WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO THE NORTHEAST. UPPER TROUGH WILL SET OFF SOME
SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY FOR WESTERN
SECTIONS. SOME SURFACE BASED CAPE...A FEW HUNDRED TO JUST UNDER 1000
J/KG DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL YOU LOOK AT...WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH A LACK OF ANY
STRONG LIFTING MECHANISM...THE CHANCE FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DIMINISH AS THE SUN SETS.

OMEGA BLOCK IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH DRY CONDITIONS IN STORE. AN EXTENDED NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
MEAN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR FOR THE
WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S ON SATURDAY...AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER SUNDAY. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...EVEN IN THE NYC METRO REGION.

THE HIGH PUSHES OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
THE RETURN FLOW WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK UP TO MORE NORMAL
VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...BUT CONDITIONS
SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA. SCT CU 040-050 WEST
OF THE HUDSON THIS AFTERNOON.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS BEING 20-40 DEGREES
RIGHT OF 130 MAGNETIC. SPEED AVERAGE JUST BELOW 10 KT...THOUGH
EXPECT OCNL 10-12 KT SPEEDS DURING FOR THE LATE AFTN DEPARTURE
BANK.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION WILL VARY 20 DEGREES OF THE
FCST MEAN.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION BEING
20-30 DEGREES RIGHT OF 130 MAGNETIC THIS AFTERNOON.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THU THROUGH SUN...
.THU...GENERALLY VFR...ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE
ACROSS NYC METRO AND LOWER HUDSON VALLEY TERMINALS COULD RESULT IN
LOWER CONDITIONS
.FRI-SUN...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS THRU THU. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED
FRI THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. A PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
WILL ALLOW WAVES TO BUILD TO 5 FT FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
OCEAN ZONE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY. GUSTS ON
SATURDAY WILL REACH THE LOWER 20 KT RANGE...AND SLIGHTLY LESS ON
SUNDAY. GUSTS AT OR JUST ABOVE 25 KT ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE
WEEKEND...BUT DOES NOT LOOK LIKELY AS OF NOW. GUSTS DIMINISH INTO
THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FEW TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE THU...MAINLY ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY
INTO NJ AWAY FROM THE COAST. ANY TSTMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE LOCALLY HVY RAIN...HOWEVER BASIN AVE PCPN OF LESS THAN 1/4
INCH IS EXPECTED ATTM. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MINOR POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING FROM ANY OF THIS TSTM ACTIVITY.

NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/JP
NEAR TERM...JMC/PICCA/JP
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...TONGUE/PW
MARINE...JMC/JP
HYDROLOGY...JMC/JP






000
FXUS61 KOKX 201543
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1143 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ANCHORED OVER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH FOR FRIDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR THE
WEEKEND...THEN SLOWLY SLIDES OFFSHORE EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER IS BREAKING UP ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
THIS MORNING...COINCIDENT WITH MIXING FROM DIURNAL HEATING AND
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS NE NJ AND THE WESTERN
LOWER HUDSON WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE...SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL REMAIN...SLOWLY
TURNING PARTLY CLOUDY LATER TODAY.

DEVELOPING SE FLOW TODAY. WITH SUBSIDENCE HANGING
ON...PARTICULARLY ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN AREAS...MOST OF THE CWA
SHOULD BE PTCLDY AND DRY. ACROSS THE FAR WRN/NWRN FRINGE...FALLING
HEIGHTS ALONG WITH UP TO 1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE PER THE NAM COULD
SPRING SOME SHRA/TSTMS. MAIN THREAT STILL W OF THE CWA WITH THE
EMBEDDED SHRTWV NOT ARRIVING TIL ABOUT 00Z.

TEMPS RIGHT ABOUT OR JUST BLW CLIMO. FCST IS CLOSE TO THE GMOS25.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
INSTABILITY WANES WITH CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW ALONG WITH A LOSS OF
SFC HEATING. THEREFORE THE SHRTWV IS EXPECTED TO HAVE A MINIMAL
EFFECT ATTM AND PRODUCE ONLY A FEW SHRA AS IT TRAVERSES THE CWA
THIS EVE/TNGT. ANY TSTMS WOULD NEED TO BE ELEVATED DUE TO THE
STABLE MARINE LAYER. AS A RESULT...HAVE NOT INCLUDED TSTMS IN THE
FCST FOR TNGT.

00Z MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE UPR LOW SPINNING OVER THE UP OF MI
WILL DROP HEIGHTS ON THU AND ATTEMPT TO TRIGGER SHRA OR TSTMS.
INSTABILITY WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR...WITH A MARINE STRATUS
DECK LIKELY PENETRATING ALMOST THE ENTIRE CWA. INCLUDED TSTMS ONLY
ON THE WRN AND NRN PERIPHERY OF THE CWA...WITH ONLY SHRA
ELSEWHERE. WHERE THE INSTABILITY DOES MATERIALIZE...THE SETUP IS
RIPE FOR MULTICELLULAR HVY RAINERS IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND PW/S
ABOUT 125-150 PERCENT OF NORMAL.

TEMPS COOLER DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH IN PLACE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH WEAK CUT OFF
UPPER LOW WEAKENING OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA
WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO THE NORTHEAST. UPPER TROUGH WILL SET OFF SOME
SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY FOR WESTERN
SECTIONS. SOME SURFACE BASED CAPE...A FEW HUNDRED TO JUST UNDER 1000
J/KG DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL YOU LOOK AT...WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH A LACK OF ANY
STRONG LIFTING MECHANISM...THE CHANCE FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DIMINISH AS THE SUN SETS.

OMEGA BLOCK IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH DRY CONDITIONS IN STORE. AN EXTENDED NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
MEAN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR FOR THE
WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S ON SATURDAY...AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER SUNDAY. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...EVEN IN THE NYC METRO REGION.

THE HIGH PUSHES OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
THE RETURN FLOW WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK UP TO MORE NORMAL
VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...BUT CONDITIONS
SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA. SCT CU 040-050 WEST
OF THE HUDSON THIS AFTERNOON.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS BEING 20-40 DEGREES
RIGHT OF 130 MAGNETIC. SPEED AVERAGE JUST BELOW 10 KT...THOUGH
EXPECT OCNL 10-12 KT SPEEDS DURING FOR THE LATE AFTN DEPARTURE
BANK.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION WILL VARY 20 DEGREES OF THE
FCST MEAN.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION BEING
20-30 DEGREES RIGHT OF 130 MAGNETIC THIS AFTERNOON.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THU THROUGH SUN...
.THU...GENERALLY VFR...ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE
ACROSS NYC METRO AND LOWER HUDSON VALLEY TERMINALS COULD RESULT IN
LOWER CONDITIONS
.FRI-SUN...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS THRU THU. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED
FRI THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. A PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
WILL ALLOW WAVES TO BUILD TO 5 FT FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
OCEAN ZONE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY. GUSTS ON
SATURDAY WILL REACH THE LOWER 20 KT RANGE...AND SLIGHTLY LESS ON
SUNDAY. GUSTS AT OR JUST ABOVE 25 KT ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE
WEEKEND...BUT DOES NOT LOOK LIKELY AS OF NOW. GUSTS DIMINISH INTO
THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FEW TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE THU...MAINLY ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY
INTO NJ AWAY FROM THE COAST. ANY TSTMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE LOCALLY HVY RAIN...HOWEVER BASIN AVE PCPN OF LESS THAN 1/4
INCH IS EXPECTED ATTM. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MINOR POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING FROM ANY OF THIS TSTM ACTIVITY.

NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/JP
NEAR TERM...JMC/PICCA/JP
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...TONGUE/PW
MARINE...JMC/JP
HYDROLOGY...JMC/JP






000
FXUS61 KOKX 201543
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1143 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ANCHORED OVER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH FOR FRIDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR THE
WEEKEND...THEN SLOWLY SLIDES OFFSHORE EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER IS BREAKING UP ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
THIS MORNING...COINCIDENT WITH MIXING FROM DIURNAL HEATING AND
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS NE NJ AND THE WESTERN
LOWER HUDSON WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE...SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL REMAIN...SLOWLY
TURNING PARTLY CLOUDY LATER TODAY.

DEVELOPING SE FLOW TODAY. WITH SUBSIDENCE HANGING
ON...PARTICULARLY ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN AREAS...MOST OF THE CWA
SHOULD BE PTCLDY AND DRY. ACROSS THE FAR WRN/NWRN FRINGE...FALLING
HEIGHTS ALONG WITH UP TO 1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE PER THE NAM COULD
SPRING SOME SHRA/TSTMS. MAIN THREAT STILL W OF THE CWA WITH THE
EMBEDDED SHRTWV NOT ARRIVING TIL ABOUT 00Z.

TEMPS RIGHT ABOUT OR JUST BLW CLIMO. FCST IS CLOSE TO THE GMOS25.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
INSTABILITY WANES WITH CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW ALONG WITH A LOSS OF
SFC HEATING. THEREFORE THE SHRTWV IS EXPECTED TO HAVE A MINIMAL
EFFECT ATTM AND PRODUCE ONLY A FEW SHRA AS IT TRAVERSES THE CWA
THIS EVE/TNGT. ANY TSTMS WOULD NEED TO BE ELEVATED DUE TO THE
STABLE MARINE LAYER. AS A RESULT...HAVE NOT INCLUDED TSTMS IN THE
FCST FOR TNGT.

00Z MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE UPR LOW SPINNING OVER THE UP OF MI
WILL DROP HEIGHTS ON THU AND ATTEMPT TO TRIGGER SHRA OR TSTMS.
INSTABILITY WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR...WITH A MARINE STRATUS
DECK LIKELY PENETRATING ALMOST THE ENTIRE CWA. INCLUDED TSTMS ONLY
ON THE WRN AND NRN PERIPHERY OF THE CWA...WITH ONLY SHRA
ELSEWHERE. WHERE THE INSTABILITY DOES MATERIALIZE...THE SETUP IS
RIPE FOR MULTICELLULAR HVY RAINERS IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND PW/S
ABOUT 125-150 PERCENT OF NORMAL.

TEMPS COOLER DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH IN PLACE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH WEAK CUT OFF
UPPER LOW WEAKENING OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA
WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO THE NORTHEAST. UPPER TROUGH WILL SET OFF SOME
SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY FOR WESTERN
SECTIONS. SOME SURFACE BASED CAPE...A FEW HUNDRED TO JUST UNDER 1000
J/KG DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL YOU LOOK AT...WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH A LACK OF ANY
STRONG LIFTING MECHANISM...THE CHANCE FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DIMINISH AS THE SUN SETS.

OMEGA BLOCK IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH DRY CONDITIONS IN STORE. AN EXTENDED NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
MEAN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR FOR THE
WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S ON SATURDAY...AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER SUNDAY. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...EVEN IN THE NYC METRO REGION.

THE HIGH PUSHES OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
THE RETURN FLOW WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK UP TO MORE NORMAL
VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...BUT CONDITIONS
SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA. SCT CU 040-050 WEST
OF THE HUDSON THIS AFTERNOON.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS BEING 20-40 DEGREES
RIGHT OF 130 MAGNETIC. SPEED AVERAGE JUST BELOW 10 KT...THOUGH
EXPECT OCNL 10-12 KT SPEEDS DURING FOR THE LATE AFTN DEPARTURE
BANK.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION WILL VARY 20 DEGREES OF THE
FCST MEAN.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION BEING
20-30 DEGREES RIGHT OF 130 MAGNETIC THIS AFTERNOON.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THU THROUGH SUN...
.THU...GENERALLY VFR...ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE
ACROSS NYC METRO AND LOWER HUDSON VALLEY TERMINALS COULD RESULT IN
LOWER CONDITIONS
.FRI-SUN...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS THRU THU. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED
FRI THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. A PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
WILL ALLOW WAVES TO BUILD TO 5 FT FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
OCEAN ZONE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY. GUSTS ON
SATURDAY WILL REACH THE LOWER 20 KT RANGE...AND SLIGHTLY LESS ON
SUNDAY. GUSTS AT OR JUST ABOVE 25 KT ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE
WEEKEND...BUT DOES NOT LOOK LIKELY AS OF NOW. GUSTS DIMINISH INTO
THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FEW TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE THU...MAINLY ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY
INTO NJ AWAY FROM THE COAST. ANY TSTMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE LOCALLY HVY RAIN...HOWEVER BASIN AVE PCPN OF LESS THAN 1/4
INCH IS EXPECTED ATTM. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MINOR POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING FROM ANY OF THIS TSTM ACTIVITY.

NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/JP
NEAR TERM...JMC/PICCA/JP
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...TONGUE/PW
MARINE...JMC/JP
HYDROLOGY...JMC/JP






000
FXUS61 KOKX 201447
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1047 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ANCHORED OVER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH FOR FRIDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR THE
WEEKEND...THEN SLOWLY SLIDES OFFSHORE EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER IS BREAKING UP ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
THIS MORNING...COINCIDENT WITH MIXING FROM DIURNAL HEATING AND
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS NE NJ AND THE WESTERN
LOWER HUDSON WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE...SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL REMAIN...SLOWLY
TURNING PARTLY CLOUDY LATER TODAY.

DEVELOPING SE FLOW TODAY. WITH SUBSIDENCE HANGING
ON...PARTICULARLY ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN AREAS...MOST OF THE CWA
SHOULD BE PTCLDY AND DRY. ACROSS THE FAR WRN/NWRN FRINGE...FALLING
HEIGHTS ALONG WITH UP TO 1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE PER THE NAM COULD
SPRING SOME SHRA/TSTMS. MAIN THREAT STILL W OF THE CWA WITH THE
EMBEDDED SHRTWV NOT ARRIVING TIL ABOUT 00Z.

TEMPS RIGHT ABOUT OR JUST BLW CLIMO. FCST IS CLOSE TO THE GMOS25.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
INSTABILITY WANES WITH CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW ALONG WITH A LOSS OF
SFC HEATING. THEREFORE THE SHRTWV IS EXPECTED TO HAVE A MINIMAL
EFFECT ATTM AND PRODUCE ONLY A FEW SHRA AS IT TRAVERSES THE CWA
THIS EVE/TNGT. ANY TSTMS WOULD NEED TO BE ELEVATED DUE TO THE
STABLE MARINE LAYER. AS A RESULT...HAVE NOT INCLUDED TSTMS IN THE
FCST FOR TNGT.

00Z MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE UPR LOW SPINNING OVER THE UP OF MI
WILL DROP HEIGHTS ON THU AND ATTEMPT TO TRIGGER SHRA OR TSTMS.
INSTABILITY WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR...WITH A MARINE STRATUS
DECK LIKELY PENETRATING ALMOST THE ENTIRE CWA. INCLUDED TSTMS ONLY
ON THE WRN AND NRN PERIPHERY OF THE CWA...WITH ONLY SHRA
ELSEWHERE. WHERE THE INSTABILITY DOES MATERIALIZE...THE SETUP IS
RIPE FOR MULTICELLULAR HVY RAINERS IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND PW/S
ABOUT 125-150 PERCENT OF NORMAL.

TEMPS COOLER DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH IN PLACE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH WEAK CUT OFF
UPPER LOW WEAKENING OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA
WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO THE NORTHEAST. UPPER TROUGH WILL SET OFF SOME
SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY FOR WESTERN
SECTIONS. SOME SURFACE BASED CAPE...A FEW HUNDRED TO JUST UNDER 1000
J/KG DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL YOU LOOK AT...WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH A LACK OF ANY
STRONG LIFTING MECHANISM...THE CHANCE FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DIMINISH AS THE SUN SETS.

OMEGA BLOCK IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH DRY CONDITIONS IN STORE. AN EXTENDED NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
MEAN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR FOR THE
WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S ON SATURDAY...AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER SUNDAY. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...EVEN IN THE NYC METRO REGION.

THE HIGH PUSHES OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
THE RETURN FLOW WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK UP TO MORE NORMAL
VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...BUT CONDITIONS
SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA.

SCT CU 040-050 WEST OF THE HUDSON THIS AFTERNOON.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS BEING 20-30 DEGREES
RIGHT OF 130 MAGNETIC. SPEED AVERAGE JUST BELOW 10 KT...THOUGH
EXPECT OCNL 10-12 KT SPEEDS DURING FOR THE LATE AFTN DEPARTURE
BANK.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND SHIFT TO THE SSE COULD BE AS
LATE AS 22Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS BEING 20-30 DEGREES
RIGHT OF 130 MAGNETIC THIS AFTERNOON.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THU THROUGH SUN...
.THU...GENERALLY VFR...ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE
ACROSS NYC METRO AND LOWER HUDSON VALLEY TERMINALS COULD RESULT IN
LOWER CONDITIONS
.FRI-SUN...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS THRU THU. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED
FRI THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. A PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
WILL ALLOW WAVES TO BUILD TO 5 FT FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
OCEAN ZONE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY. GUSTS ON
SATURDAY WILL REACH THE LOWER 20 KT RANGE...AND SLIGHTLY LESS ON
SUNDAY. GUSTS AT OR JUST ABOVE 25 KT ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE
WEEKEND...BUT DOES NOT LOOK LIKELY AS OF NOW. GUSTS DIMINISH INTO
THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FEW TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE THU...MAINLY ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY
INTO NJ AWAY FROM THE COAST. ANY TSTMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE LOCALLY HVY RAIN...HOWEVER BASIN AVE PCPN OF LESS THAN 1/4
INCH IS EXPECTED ATTM. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MINOR POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING FROM ANY OF THIS TSTM ACTIVITY.

NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/JP
NEAR TERM...JMC/PICCA/JP
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...TONGUE/PW
MARINE...JMC/JP
HYDROLOGY...JMC/JP








000
FXUS61 KOKX 201447
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1047 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ANCHORED OVER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH FOR FRIDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR THE
WEEKEND...THEN SLOWLY SLIDES OFFSHORE EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER IS BREAKING UP ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
THIS MORNING...COINCIDENT WITH MIXING FROM DIURNAL HEATING AND
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS NE NJ AND THE WESTERN
LOWER HUDSON WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE...SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL REMAIN...SLOWLY
TURNING PARTLY CLOUDY LATER TODAY.

DEVELOPING SE FLOW TODAY. WITH SUBSIDENCE HANGING
ON...PARTICULARLY ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN AREAS...MOST OF THE CWA
SHOULD BE PTCLDY AND DRY. ACROSS THE FAR WRN/NWRN FRINGE...FALLING
HEIGHTS ALONG WITH UP TO 1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE PER THE NAM COULD
SPRING SOME SHRA/TSTMS. MAIN THREAT STILL W OF THE CWA WITH THE
EMBEDDED SHRTWV NOT ARRIVING TIL ABOUT 00Z.

TEMPS RIGHT ABOUT OR JUST BLW CLIMO. FCST IS CLOSE TO THE GMOS25.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
INSTABILITY WANES WITH CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW ALONG WITH A LOSS OF
SFC HEATING. THEREFORE THE SHRTWV IS EXPECTED TO HAVE A MINIMAL
EFFECT ATTM AND PRODUCE ONLY A FEW SHRA AS IT TRAVERSES THE CWA
THIS EVE/TNGT. ANY TSTMS WOULD NEED TO BE ELEVATED DUE TO THE
STABLE MARINE LAYER. AS A RESULT...HAVE NOT INCLUDED TSTMS IN THE
FCST FOR TNGT.

00Z MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE UPR LOW SPINNING OVER THE UP OF MI
WILL DROP HEIGHTS ON THU AND ATTEMPT TO TRIGGER SHRA OR TSTMS.
INSTABILITY WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR...WITH A MARINE STRATUS
DECK LIKELY PENETRATING ALMOST THE ENTIRE CWA. INCLUDED TSTMS ONLY
ON THE WRN AND NRN PERIPHERY OF THE CWA...WITH ONLY SHRA
ELSEWHERE. WHERE THE INSTABILITY DOES MATERIALIZE...THE SETUP IS
RIPE FOR MULTICELLULAR HVY RAINERS IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND PW/S
ABOUT 125-150 PERCENT OF NORMAL.

TEMPS COOLER DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH IN PLACE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH WEAK CUT OFF
UPPER LOW WEAKENING OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA
WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO THE NORTHEAST. UPPER TROUGH WILL SET OFF SOME
SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY FOR WESTERN
SECTIONS. SOME SURFACE BASED CAPE...A FEW HUNDRED TO JUST UNDER 1000
J/KG DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL YOU LOOK AT...WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH A LACK OF ANY
STRONG LIFTING MECHANISM...THE CHANCE FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DIMINISH AS THE SUN SETS.

OMEGA BLOCK IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH DRY CONDITIONS IN STORE. AN EXTENDED NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
MEAN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR FOR THE
WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S ON SATURDAY...AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER SUNDAY. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...EVEN IN THE NYC METRO REGION.

THE HIGH PUSHES OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
THE RETURN FLOW WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK UP TO MORE NORMAL
VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...BUT CONDITIONS
SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA.

SCT CU 040-050 WEST OF THE HUDSON THIS AFTERNOON.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS BEING 20-30 DEGREES
RIGHT OF 130 MAGNETIC. SPEED AVERAGE JUST BELOW 10 KT...THOUGH
EXPECT OCNL 10-12 KT SPEEDS DURING FOR THE LATE AFTN DEPARTURE
BANK.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND SHIFT TO THE SSE COULD BE AS
LATE AS 22Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS BEING 20-30 DEGREES
RIGHT OF 130 MAGNETIC THIS AFTERNOON.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THU THROUGH SUN...
.THU...GENERALLY VFR...ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE
ACROSS NYC METRO AND LOWER HUDSON VALLEY TERMINALS COULD RESULT IN
LOWER CONDITIONS
.FRI-SUN...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS THRU THU. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED
FRI THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. A PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
WILL ALLOW WAVES TO BUILD TO 5 FT FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
OCEAN ZONE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY. GUSTS ON
SATURDAY WILL REACH THE LOWER 20 KT RANGE...AND SLIGHTLY LESS ON
SUNDAY. GUSTS AT OR JUST ABOVE 25 KT ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE
WEEKEND...BUT DOES NOT LOOK LIKELY AS OF NOW. GUSTS DIMINISH INTO
THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FEW TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE THU...MAINLY ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY
INTO NJ AWAY FROM THE COAST. ANY TSTMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE LOCALLY HVY RAIN...HOWEVER BASIN AVE PCPN OF LESS THAN 1/4
INCH IS EXPECTED ATTM. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MINOR POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING FROM ANY OF THIS TSTM ACTIVITY.

NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/JP
NEAR TERM...JMC/PICCA/JP
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...TONGUE/PW
MARINE...JMC/JP
HYDROLOGY...JMC/JP









000
FXUS61 KALY 201406
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1006 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL
BEGIN TO IMPACT OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. AS THIS SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES
SOUTHEAST...IT WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
12Z AREA SOUNDINGS SHOW WE ARE CAPPED HERE IN EASTERN NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THEE IS SOME MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
IN WESTERN NY AND CENTRAL/WESTERN PA BUILDING EAST THROUGH THE
DAY. SOME CLOUD COVER IS BUILDING EAST AS WELL AND SOME ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING
COVERAGE IN WESTERN AREAS. SO...JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPERATURES WITH INTERVALS OF CLOUDS...AND MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
RAIN CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S...AND IT WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY HUMID AS DEWPOINTS INCREASE INTO THE LOW OR MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE FEATURE MOVING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS IT SLOWLY SLIDES OFF
THE EAST COAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. ON FRIDAY...CONDITIONS
WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT AS DRIER AIR TRIES TO FILTER INTO THE REGION
FROM NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WHICH WILL BE THE RESULT OF THE FLOW
AROUND A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

FROM TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY LIKELY POPS ARE
FORECAST FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY WESTWARD...AND CHANCE POPS FURTHER
EAST. AS THE SYSTEM SLIDES OFF THE EAST COAST...POPS ARE FORECAST TO
DECREASE THURSDAY NIGHT...LOWERING TO ONLY 20 PERCENT ON FRIDAY.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN THE PAST FEW NIGHTS
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE
70S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGHS FRIDAY
IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A TRANQUIL EXTENDED FORECAST IS ANTICIPATED FOR ERN NY AND WRN NEW
ENGLAND WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM ERN QUEBEC...NEW
BRUNSWICK...AND NRN NEW ENGLAND EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...AND LASTING
INTO THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS
AND FAIR WEATHER.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...A REX TYPE BLOCK SETS UP OVER ERN
CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST WITH A CLOSED H500 ANTICYCLONE OVER N-CNTRL
QUEBEC...AND DOWNSTREAM OF JAMES BAY.  A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH SETS
UP OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND JUST SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND.
THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY AND UPPER MID ATLANTIC REGION MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD SHOWERS
NEAR THE CATSKILLS FRIDAY EVENING...BUT MOST OF THE AREA WILL STAY
DRY.  THE BLOCKING RIDGE STRENGTHENS ON SATURDAY WITH THE SFC
ANTICYCLONE NEAR THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE AND NEW BRUNSWICK.  H850
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE +10C TO +12C RANGE WITH THE ONSHORE
FLOW.  LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U60S TO L70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.  WITH
THE ONSHORE FLOW...SOME STRATUS IS POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING BEFORE
BURNING OFF BEFORE NOONTIME.

SATURDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE IN
FROM NEW BRUNSWICK AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  A BROAD CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL LOW FORMS SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA.  OUR FCST AREA WILL BE
SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE DOWNSTREAM CUTOFF AND A BROADER HIGH
AMPLITUDE H500 ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE PLAINS.  THE H500 RIDGE
ACTUALLY BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES
REGION AND SE CANADA.  DRY WX IS EXPECTED BASED ON THE LATEST
ECMWF/GFS/WPC/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...AS THE UPSTREAM RIDGE LOOKS TO
DOMINATE WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS EXPECTED WITH M60S TO L70S FOR HIGHS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND MID TO U70S AND PERHAPS SOME L80S OVER
THE VALLEYS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK /TUESDAY/.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S
WITH SOME SPOTTY U40S OVER THE HIGH PEAKS.  HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY COMFORTABLE WITH SFC DEWPTS GENERALLY IN THE
50S TO L60S.  AN ONSHORE FLOW OF MARITIME AIR WILL IMPACT THE REGION
WITH THE SFC HIGH SITUATED TO THE NORTH AND EAST....AND SOME MORNING
STRATUS IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY.  A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY KICK OFF A FEW
SPRINKLES OR ISOLD SHOWERS OVER THE SRN DACKS BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT OVERALL FAIR AND DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO DOMINATE INTO THE
MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED OFFSHORE...AND A WEAK WARM FRONT IS
APPROACHING THE REGION THIS MORNING. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH
A SFC WAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM
THE WEST TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING WITH SOME MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE AT KPOU PRIOR TO NOONTIME. SCT-BKN CUMULUS 3.5-5 KFT AGL
AND MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND IN THE AFTERNOON. THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF THE
OCCLUDED FRONT WILL BE AFTER 23Z. VCSH GROUPS WERE PLACED IN THE
FCST AT ALL THE TAF SITES BTWN 23Z TO 02Z/THU. THE BETTER CHANCE
OF SHOWERS WITH MVFR/VFR CIGS VSBYS WILL BE SHORTLY BEFORE OR JUST
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM THIS MORNING...AND THEN INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 4-8 KTS. THEY WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE IN DIRECTION TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRI NIGHT-SUN: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A SLOW
MOVING AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS  WILL BE TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND WESTERN AND
CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

MINIMUM RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE BETWEEN 45 AND 60 PERCENT
AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE 60S IN MOST AREAS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS OF AROUND
15 MPH. RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS AT THIS TIME.
THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A
SLOW MOVING AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION. THE
HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND WESTERN AND
CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY INCLUDING THE CATSKILLS. UP TO AN INCH OF
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. DUE
TO LOW RIVER LEVELS AND FAIRLY DRY SOIL CONDITIONS...THERE WILL BE
LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/NAS
NEAR TERM...GJM/NAS
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM







000
FXUS61 KALY 201406
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1006 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL
BEGIN TO IMPACT OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. AS THIS SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES
SOUTHEAST...IT WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
12Z AREA SOUNDINGS SHOW WE ARE CAPPED HERE IN EASTERN NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THEE IS SOME MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
IN WESTERN NY AND CENTRAL/WESTERN PA BUILDING EAST THROUGH THE
DAY. SOME CLOUD COVER IS BUILDING EAST AS WELL AND SOME ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING
COVERAGE IN WESTERN AREAS. SO...JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPERATURES WITH INTERVALS OF CLOUDS...AND MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
RAIN CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S...AND IT WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY HUMID AS DEWPOINTS INCREASE INTO THE LOW OR MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE FEATURE MOVING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS IT SLOWLY SLIDES OFF
THE EAST COAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. ON FRIDAY...CONDITIONS
WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT AS DRIER AIR TRIES TO FILTER INTO THE REGION
FROM NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WHICH WILL BE THE RESULT OF THE FLOW
AROUND A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

FROM TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY LIKELY POPS ARE
FORECAST FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY WESTWARD...AND CHANCE POPS FURTHER
EAST. AS THE SYSTEM SLIDES OFF THE EAST COAST...POPS ARE FORECAST TO
DECREASE THURSDAY NIGHT...LOWERING TO ONLY 20 PERCENT ON FRIDAY.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN THE PAST FEW NIGHTS
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE
70S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGHS FRIDAY
IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A TRANQUIL EXTENDED FORECAST IS ANTICIPATED FOR ERN NY AND WRN NEW
ENGLAND WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM ERN QUEBEC...NEW
BRUNSWICK...AND NRN NEW ENGLAND EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...AND LASTING
INTO THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS
AND FAIR WEATHER.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...A REX TYPE BLOCK SETS UP OVER ERN
CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST WITH A CLOSED H500 ANTICYCLONE OVER N-CNTRL
QUEBEC...AND DOWNSTREAM OF JAMES BAY.  A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH SETS
UP OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND JUST SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND.
THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY AND UPPER MID ATLANTIC REGION MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD SHOWERS
NEAR THE CATSKILLS FRIDAY EVENING...BUT MOST OF THE AREA WILL STAY
DRY.  THE BLOCKING RIDGE STRENGTHENS ON SATURDAY WITH THE SFC
ANTICYCLONE NEAR THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE AND NEW BRUNSWICK.  H850
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE +10C TO +12C RANGE WITH THE ONSHORE
FLOW.  LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U60S TO L70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.  WITH
THE ONSHORE FLOW...SOME STRATUS IS POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING BEFORE
BURNING OFF BEFORE NOONTIME.

SATURDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE IN
FROM NEW BRUNSWICK AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  A BROAD CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL LOW FORMS SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA.  OUR FCST AREA WILL BE
SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE DOWNSTREAM CUTOFF AND A BROADER HIGH
AMPLITUDE H500 ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE PLAINS.  THE H500 RIDGE
ACTUALLY BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES
REGION AND SE CANADA.  DRY WX IS EXPECTED BASED ON THE LATEST
ECMWF/GFS/WPC/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...AS THE UPSTREAM RIDGE LOOKS TO
DOMINATE WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS EXPECTED WITH M60S TO L70S FOR HIGHS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND MID TO U70S AND PERHAPS SOME L80S OVER
THE VALLEYS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK /TUESDAY/.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S
WITH SOME SPOTTY U40S OVER THE HIGH PEAKS.  HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY COMFORTABLE WITH SFC DEWPTS GENERALLY IN THE
50S TO L60S.  AN ONSHORE FLOW OF MARITIME AIR WILL IMPACT THE REGION
WITH THE SFC HIGH SITUATED TO THE NORTH AND EAST....AND SOME MORNING
STRATUS IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY.  A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY KICK OFF A FEW
SPRINKLES OR ISOLD SHOWERS OVER THE SRN DACKS BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT OVERALL FAIR AND DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO DOMINATE INTO THE
MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED OFFSHORE...AND A WEAK WARM FRONT IS
APPROACHING THE REGION THIS MORNING. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH
A SFC WAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM
THE WEST TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING WITH SOME MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE AT KPOU PRIOR TO NOONTIME. SCT-BKN CUMULUS 3.5-5 KFT AGL
AND MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND IN THE AFTERNOON. THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF THE
OCCLUDED FRONT WILL BE AFTER 23Z. VCSH GROUPS WERE PLACED IN THE
FCST AT ALL THE TAF SITES BTWN 23Z TO 02Z/THU. THE BETTER CHANCE
OF SHOWERS WITH MVFR/VFR CIGS VSBYS WILL BE SHORTLY BEFORE OR JUST
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM THIS MORNING...AND THEN INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 4-8 KTS. THEY WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE IN DIRECTION TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRI NIGHT-SUN: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A SLOW
MOVING AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS  WILL BE TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND WESTERN AND
CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

MINIMUM RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE BETWEEN 45 AND 60 PERCENT
AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE 60S IN MOST AREAS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS OF AROUND
15 MPH. RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS AT THIS TIME.
THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A
SLOW MOVING AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION. THE
HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND WESTERN AND
CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY INCLUDING THE CATSKILLS. UP TO AN INCH OF
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. DUE
TO LOW RIVER LEVELS AND FAIRLY DRY SOIL CONDITIONS...THERE WILL BE
LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/NAS
NEAR TERM...GJM/NAS
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM








000
FXUS61 KBOX 201359
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
959 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

MAINLY DRY WEATHER...EXCEPT MAYBE A SHOWER IN THE WEST...WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. PATTERN STARTS TO BECOME A BIT MORE UNSETTLED EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

10 AM UPDATE...

PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS ALL BUT ERODED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING...THE OVERNIGHT CULPRIT BEING SURFACE
MOISTURE POOLING BENEATH A DRY INVERSION IN LOCATIONS WHERE WINDS
WERE LIGHT/VARIABLE AND CONDITIONS WERE CLEAR TO ALLOW FOR GOOD
NOCTURNAL RADIATING.

AS FOR TODAY...A DRY AND QUIET FORECAST. DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE
PREVAILING WITH THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE SWEEPING ACROSS THE REGION.
THE COMBINATION OF NEIGHBORING CLOSED LOWS OVER NE NORTH AMERICA
AND A STALLED E-W FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC RESULTS IN
CONTINUED STRENGTH AND INFLUENCE OF THE LABRADOR HIGH. AIR NEEDS
TO SINK SOMEWHERE BETWEEN AREAS OF CONVERGENCE.

AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE PUSHES E LATE IN THE DAY...HEIGHTS WILL
LOWER INTO THE CT-VALLEY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE H5 TROUGH AXIS
AND VORTICITY. THOUGH ASCENT IS LACKING AS BETTER DYNAMICS ALONG
WITH THE SURFACE WARM-FRONT RESIDE W. PERHAPS SOME INCREASING
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND WEAK SW-ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE COULD YIELD A
SPRINKLE INTO W NEW ENGLAND...THOUGH THE ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR PER
THE 12Z CHATHAM SOUNDING /PWAT OF 0.64 INCHES FOR MID-AUGUST!?/
AND INFLUENCE OF THE LABRADOR HIGH AND ATTENDANT SUBSIDENCE WILL
MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR ANY MOISTURE TO PROCEED E OF THE CT-RIVER
VALLEY LET ALONE REACH THE GROUND.

A WARMER AIRMASS STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE SW COMBINED
WITH A MIXING BOUNDARY LAYER UP TO H85 /+12-14C/ SHOULD ALLOW
HIGHS OF AROUND THE LOW-80S /SEASONABLE/. COOLER ALONG THE
SHORELINES WITH ANTICIPATED SEA-BREEZES EXPECTED AROUND LATE-
MORNING. EXPECT SOME GUSTY E-WINDS BEHIND THE SEA-BREEZE AROUND
10 MPH. A FEW SITES INTO THE MID-80S WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING
ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS OUT OF PA/NY MAY CURTAIL SOME OF THE
DAYTIME HEATING...BUT THERE IS EVIDENCE OF ITS EROSION E...SO WILL
PREVAIL WITH PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS FOR AREAS MAINLY AROUND AND
W OF THE WORCESTER HILLS. MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS TO THE E WITH
ONSHORE SEA-BREEZE AND ADVECTION OF A MARINE STABLE LAYER...ALSO
THE GREATER DEEP-LAYER INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR /AGAIN...SEE THE 12Z
CHATHAM SOUNDING/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...

TONIGHT...

THE APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND GRADUALLY OPENING UPPER LVL
CUTOFF...COMBINED WITH GRADUAL MOISTURE LOADING OF THE COLUMN IS
LIKELY TO LEAD TO MORE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION THAN PREVIOUS
NIGHTS. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION A SHOWER IS ABLE TO SLIDE ACROSS
THE W...BUT BOTH JET AND VORTICITY RELATED DYNAMICS ARE QUITE
WEAK AND OVERALL COLUMN MOISTURE REMAINS FAIRLY LOW UNTIL THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN A MOSTLY DRY
FORECAST EXCEPT THE EXTREME WRN FRINGES OF THE BOX CWA THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...GIVEN THE INCREASED MOISTURE /CLOUD
COVER/ AND WARMER EVENING TEMPERATURES EXPECT THAT OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS IN SPITE OF THE NEAR CALM FLOW
ONCE AGAIN. MORE WIDESPREAD MID 50S WITH EVEN SOME NORMAL HEAT
ISLANDS HOLDING IN THE LOW-MID 60S ARE EXPECTED.

THURSDAY...

INVERTED RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE...AND MAINLY E-SE FLOW EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION. THE MARINE INFLUENCE IS LIKELY TO STAVE OFF
APPROACHING WARM FRONT AS IT/S ATTENDANT UPPER LVL CUTOFF
DIMINISHES TO AN OPEN WAVE WITH CUTOFF HIGH PRES TO THE N. UPPER
LVL AND LOW LVL JETS ARE WEAK AND WITH OVERALL VORTICITY
DECREASING...THEREFORE DYNAMIC FORCING IS RELATIVELY WEAK EVEN AS
OVERALL COLUMN MOISTURE INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY /PWATS APPROACH
1.75 INCHES/. ALSO...WITH MARINE FLOW AND WARM FRONT TRAPPED TO
THE W...IT/S UNLIKELY THAT THERE WILL BE MUCH DESTABILIZATION
THROUGH THE DAY. GIVEN ALL OF THIS...THE THREAT FOR SHOWERY
ACTIVITY REMAINS FAIRLY LOW. WILL FOCUS ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS W OF
THE CT VALLEY...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO THE WORCESTER HILLS.
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD DIVE TO THE SW OF THE REGION WHERE
INSTABILITY AXIS RESIDES. HAVE KEPT THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST
WITH THIS UPDATE DUE TO THE MARINE FLOW AND MODEST LAPSE RATES.
THE ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND MARINE FLOW ARE ALSO LIKELY TO KEEP
HIGH TEMPS COOLER THAN NORMAL /MAINLY MID 70S/ DURING THE DAY THU.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
* UNCERTAINTY INCREASES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT

RATHER UNIQUE AND STABLE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN
LATE THIS WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND. 20/00Z GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...THEN MORE DIFFERENCES APPEAR EARLY
NEXT WEEK. WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR A CONSENSUS BLEND TO SMOOTH OVER
THE MORE MINOR DIFFERENCES.

HIGH PRESSURE IN QUEBEC WILL KEEP THINGS RELATIVELY DRY ACROSS MOST
OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
THURSDAY NIGHT IF SOME MOVING PARTS COME TOGETHER. MOISTURE IS THE
MAIN LIMITING FACTOR...WITH INSTABILITY A CLOSE SECOND ONCE THE SUN
SETS.

THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL SINK SOUTH THROUGH THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...EVENTUALLY DROPPING SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND
RETURNING US TO A MORE WESTERLY FLOW. A LOW PRESSURE IN ONTARIO MAY
EVENTUALLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO QUEBEC...SWINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SOMETIME TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. DEPENDING ON
AVAILABLE MOISTURE...THIS FRONT MAY INITIATE A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THURSDAY. ONLY CAVEAT WILL BE SOME SPOTTY
GROUND FOG AT TYPICALLY PRONE AIRPORTS BOTH THIS MORNING AND AGAIN
LATE TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLY MAINLY W OF AN IJD-ORH-AFN
LINE DURING THE DAY ON THU.

FLOW SHIFTS FROM THE SW TO THE E THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...ASSISTED
BY SEA BREEZES. LIGHT AND VRB FLOW RETURNS AGAIN TONIGHT...WITH E
FLOW AGAIN ON THU.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY
MVFR/IFR FOG EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THE MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER CONTINUES. WINDS REMAIN MAINLY E
TO SE WITH A FEW GUSTS AROUND 15 KT POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
OUTER EDGE OF THE S AND SE WATERS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION.
LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY OVERNIGHT FOG LIMITING VISIBILITIES. SEAS
MAY INCREASE ON THE OUTER WATERS THIS WEEKEND AS AN OCEAN STORM
PASSES WELL EAST OF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WATERS. WNA WAVE
GUIDANCE LOOKS TO BE TOO HIGH BASED ON EXPECTED WINDS...LOWERED THIS
GUIDANCE BY 20 PERCENT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 201359
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
959 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

MAINLY DRY WEATHER...EXCEPT MAYBE A SHOWER IN THE WEST...WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. PATTERN STARTS TO BECOME A BIT MORE UNSETTLED EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

10 AM UPDATE...

PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS ALL BUT ERODED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING...THE OVERNIGHT CULPRIT BEING SURFACE
MOISTURE POOLING BENEATH A DRY INVERSION IN LOCATIONS WHERE WINDS
WERE LIGHT/VARIABLE AND CONDITIONS WERE CLEAR TO ALLOW FOR GOOD
NOCTURNAL RADIATING.

AS FOR TODAY...A DRY AND QUIET FORECAST. DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE
PREVAILING WITH THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE SWEEPING ACROSS THE REGION.
THE COMBINATION OF NEIGHBORING CLOSED LOWS OVER NE NORTH AMERICA
AND A STALLED E-W FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC RESULTS IN
CONTINUED STRENGTH AND INFLUENCE OF THE LABRADOR HIGH. AIR NEEDS
TO SINK SOMEWHERE BETWEEN AREAS OF CONVERGENCE.

AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE PUSHES E LATE IN THE DAY...HEIGHTS WILL
LOWER INTO THE CT-VALLEY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE H5 TROUGH AXIS
AND VORTICITY. THOUGH ASCENT IS LACKING AS BETTER DYNAMICS ALONG
WITH THE SURFACE WARM-FRONT RESIDE W. PERHAPS SOME INCREASING
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND WEAK SW-ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE COULD YIELD A
SPRINKLE INTO W NEW ENGLAND...THOUGH THE ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR PER
THE 12Z CHATHAM SOUNDING /PWAT OF 0.64 INCHES FOR MID-AUGUST!?/
AND INFLUENCE OF THE LABRADOR HIGH AND ATTENDANT SUBSIDENCE WILL
MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR ANY MOISTURE TO PROCEED E OF THE CT-RIVER
VALLEY LET ALONE REACH THE GROUND.

A WARMER AIRMASS STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE SW COMBINED
WITH A MIXING BOUNDARY LAYER UP TO H85 /+12-14C/ SHOULD ALLOW
HIGHS OF AROUND THE LOW-80S /SEASONABLE/. COOLER ALONG THE
SHORELINES WITH ANTICIPATED SEA-BREEZES EXPECTED AROUND LATE-
MORNING. EXPECT SOME GUSTY E-WINDS BEHIND THE SEA-BREEZE AROUND
10 MPH. A FEW SITES INTO THE MID-80S WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING
ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS OUT OF PA/NY MAY CURTAIL SOME OF THE
DAYTIME HEATING...BUT THERE IS EVIDENCE OF ITS EROSION E...SO WILL
PREVAIL WITH PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS FOR AREAS MAINLY AROUND AND
W OF THE WORCESTER HILLS. MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS TO THE E WITH
ONSHORE SEA-BREEZE AND ADVECTION OF A MARINE STABLE LAYER...ALSO
THE GREATER DEEP-LAYER INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR /AGAIN...SEE THE 12Z
CHATHAM SOUNDING/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...

TONIGHT...

THE APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND GRADUALLY OPENING UPPER LVL
CUTOFF...COMBINED WITH GRADUAL MOISTURE LOADING OF THE COLUMN IS
LIKELY TO LEAD TO MORE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION THAN PREVIOUS
NIGHTS. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION A SHOWER IS ABLE TO SLIDE ACROSS
THE W...BUT BOTH JET AND VORTICITY RELATED DYNAMICS ARE QUITE
WEAK AND OVERALL COLUMN MOISTURE REMAINS FAIRLY LOW UNTIL THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN A MOSTLY DRY
FORECAST EXCEPT THE EXTREME WRN FRINGES OF THE BOX CWA THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...GIVEN THE INCREASED MOISTURE /CLOUD
COVER/ AND WARMER EVENING TEMPERATURES EXPECT THAT OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS IN SPITE OF THE NEAR CALM FLOW
ONCE AGAIN. MORE WIDESPREAD MID 50S WITH EVEN SOME NORMAL HEAT
ISLANDS HOLDING IN THE LOW-MID 60S ARE EXPECTED.

THURSDAY...

INVERTED RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE...AND MAINLY E-SE FLOW EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION. THE MARINE INFLUENCE IS LIKELY TO STAVE OFF
APPROACHING WARM FRONT AS IT/S ATTENDANT UPPER LVL CUTOFF
DIMINISHES TO AN OPEN WAVE WITH CUTOFF HIGH PRES TO THE N. UPPER
LVL AND LOW LVL JETS ARE WEAK AND WITH OVERALL VORTICITY
DECREASING...THEREFORE DYNAMIC FORCING IS RELATIVELY WEAK EVEN AS
OVERALL COLUMN MOISTURE INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY /PWATS APPROACH
1.75 INCHES/. ALSO...WITH MARINE FLOW AND WARM FRONT TRAPPED TO
THE W...IT/S UNLIKELY THAT THERE WILL BE MUCH DESTABILIZATION
THROUGH THE DAY. GIVEN ALL OF THIS...THE THREAT FOR SHOWERY
ACTIVITY REMAINS FAIRLY LOW. WILL FOCUS ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS W OF
THE CT VALLEY...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO THE WORCESTER HILLS.
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD DIVE TO THE SW OF THE REGION WHERE
INSTABILITY AXIS RESIDES. HAVE KEPT THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST
WITH THIS UPDATE DUE TO THE MARINE FLOW AND MODEST LAPSE RATES.
THE ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND MARINE FLOW ARE ALSO LIKELY TO KEEP
HIGH TEMPS COOLER THAN NORMAL /MAINLY MID 70S/ DURING THE DAY THU.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
* UNCERTAINTY INCREASES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT

RATHER UNIQUE AND STABLE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN
LATE THIS WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND. 20/00Z GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...THEN MORE DIFFERENCES APPEAR EARLY
NEXT WEEK. WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR A CONSENSUS BLEND TO SMOOTH OVER
THE MORE MINOR DIFFERENCES.

HIGH PRESSURE IN QUEBEC WILL KEEP THINGS RELATIVELY DRY ACROSS MOST
OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
THURSDAY NIGHT IF SOME MOVING PARTS COME TOGETHER. MOISTURE IS THE
MAIN LIMITING FACTOR...WITH INSTABILITY A CLOSE SECOND ONCE THE SUN
SETS.

THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL SINK SOUTH THROUGH THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...EVENTUALLY DROPPING SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND
RETURNING US TO A MORE WESTERLY FLOW. A LOW PRESSURE IN ONTARIO MAY
EVENTUALLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO QUEBEC...SWINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SOMETIME TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. DEPENDING ON
AVAILABLE MOISTURE...THIS FRONT MAY INITIATE A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THURSDAY. ONLY CAVEAT WILL BE SOME SPOTTY
GROUND FOG AT TYPICALLY PRONE AIRPORTS BOTH THIS MORNING AND AGAIN
LATE TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLY MAINLY W OF AN IJD-ORH-AFN
LINE DURING THE DAY ON THU.

FLOW SHIFTS FROM THE SW TO THE E THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...ASSISTED
BY SEA BREEZES. LIGHT AND VRB FLOW RETURNS AGAIN TONIGHT...WITH E
FLOW AGAIN ON THU.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY
MVFR/IFR FOG EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THE MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER CONTINUES. WINDS REMAIN MAINLY E
TO SE WITH A FEW GUSTS AROUND 15 KT POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
OUTER EDGE OF THE S AND SE WATERS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION.
LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY OVERNIGHT FOG LIMITING VISIBILITIES. SEAS
MAY INCREASE ON THE OUTER WATERS THIS WEEKEND AS AN OCEAN STORM
PASSES WELL EAST OF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WATERS. WNA WAVE
GUIDANCE LOOKS TO BE TOO HIGH BASED ON EXPECTED WINDS...LOWERED THIS
GUIDANCE BY 20 PERCENT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 201359
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
959 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

MAINLY DRY WEATHER...EXCEPT MAYBE A SHOWER IN THE WEST...WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. PATTERN STARTS TO BECOME A BIT MORE UNSETTLED EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

10 AM UPDATE...

PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS ALL BUT ERODED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING...THE OVERNIGHT CULPRIT BEING SURFACE
MOISTURE POOLING BENEATH A DRY INVERSION IN LOCATIONS WHERE WINDS
WERE LIGHT/VARIABLE AND CONDITIONS WERE CLEAR TO ALLOW FOR GOOD
NOCTURNAL RADIATING.

AS FOR TODAY...A DRY AND QUIET FORECAST. DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE
PREVAILING WITH THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE SWEEPING ACROSS THE REGION.
THE COMBINATION OF NEIGHBORING CLOSED LOWS OVER NE NORTH AMERICA
AND A STALLED E-W FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC RESULTS IN
CONTINUED STRENGTH AND INFLUENCE OF THE LABRADOR HIGH. AIR NEEDS
TO SINK SOMEWHERE BETWEEN AREAS OF CONVERGENCE.

AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE PUSHES E LATE IN THE DAY...HEIGHTS WILL
LOWER INTO THE CT-VALLEY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE H5 TROUGH AXIS
AND VORTICITY. THOUGH ASCENT IS LACKING AS BETTER DYNAMICS ALONG
WITH THE SURFACE WARM-FRONT RESIDE W. PERHAPS SOME INCREASING
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND WEAK SW-ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE COULD YIELD A
SPRINKLE INTO W NEW ENGLAND...THOUGH THE ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR PER
THE 12Z CHATHAM SOUNDING /PWAT OF 0.64 INCHES FOR MID-AUGUST!?/
AND INFLUENCE OF THE LABRADOR HIGH AND ATTENDANT SUBSIDENCE WILL
MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR ANY MOISTURE TO PROCEED E OF THE CT-RIVER
VALLEY LET ALONE REACH THE GROUND.

A WARMER AIRMASS STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE SW COMBINED
WITH A MIXING BOUNDARY LAYER UP TO H85 /+12-14C/ SHOULD ALLOW
HIGHS OF AROUND THE LOW-80S /SEASONABLE/. COOLER ALONG THE
SHORELINES WITH ANTICIPATED SEA-BREEZES EXPECTED AROUND LATE-
MORNING. EXPECT SOME GUSTY E-WINDS BEHIND THE SEA-BREEZE AROUND
10 MPH. A FEW SITES INTO THE MID-80S WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING
ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS OUT OF PA/NY MAY CURTAIL SOME OF THE
DAYTIME HEATING...BUT THERE IS EVIDENCE OF ITS EROSION E...SO WILL
PREVAIL WITH PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS FOR AREAS MAINLY AROUND AND
W OF THE WORCESTER HILLS. MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS TO THE E WITH
ONSHORE SEA-BREEZE AND ADVECTION OF A MARINE STABLE LAYER...ALSO
THE GREATER DEEP-LAYER INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR /AGAIN...SEE THE 12Z
CHATHAM SOUNDING/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...

TONIGHT...

THE APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND GRADUALLY OPENING UPPER LVL
CUTOFF...COMBINED WITH GRADUAL MOISTURE LOADING OF THE COLUMN IS
LIKELY TO LEAD TO MORE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION THAN PREVIOUS
NIGHTS. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION A SHOWER IS ABLE TO SLIDE ACROSS
THE W...BUT BOTH JET AND VORTICITY RELATED DYNAMICS ARE QUITE
WEAK AND OVERALL COLUMN MOISTURE REMAINS FAIRLY LOW UNTIL THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN A MOSTLY DRY
FORECAST EXCEPT THE EXTREME WRN FRINGES OF THE BOX CWA THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...GIVEN THE INCREASED MOISTURE /CLOUD
COVER/ AND WARMER EVENING TEMPERATURES EXPECT THAT OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS IN SPITE OF THE NEAR CALM FLOW
ONCE AGAIN. MORE WIDESPREAD MID 50S WITH EVEN SOME NORMAL HEAT
ISLANDS HOLDING IN THE LOW-MID 60S ARE EXPECTED.

THURSDAY...

INVERTED RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE...AND MAINLY E-SE FLOW EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION. THE MARINE INFLUENCE IS LIKELY TO STAVE OFF
APPROACHING WARM FRONT AS IT/S ATTENDANT UPPER LVL CUTOFF
DIMINISHES TO AN OPEN WAVE WITH CUTOFF HIGH PRES TO THE N. UPPER
LVL AND LOW LVL JETS ARE WEAK AND WITH OVERALL VORTICITY
DECREASING...THEREFORE DYNAMIC FORCING IS RELATIVELY WEAK EVEN AS
OVERALL COLUMN MOISTURE INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY /PWATS APPROACH
1.75 INCHES/. ALSO...WITH MARINE FLOW AND WARM FRONT TRAPPED TO
THE W...IT/S UNLIKELY THAT THERE WILL BE MUCH DESTABILIZATION
THROUGH THE DAY. GIVEN ALL OF THIS...THE THREAT FOR SHOWERY
ACTIVITY REMAINS FAIRLY LOW. WILL FOCUS ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS W OF
THE CT VALLEY...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO THE WORCESTER HILLS.
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD DIVE TO THE SW OF THE REGION WHERE
INSTABILITY AXIS RESIDES. HAVE KEPT THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST
WITH THIS UPDATE DUE TO THE MARINE FLOW AND MODEST LAPSE RATES.
THE ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND MARINE FLOW ARE ALSO LIKELY TO KEEP
HIGH TEMPS COOLER THAN NORMAL /MAINLY MID 70S/ DURING THE DAY THU.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
* UNCERTAINTY INCREASES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT

RATHER UNIQUE AND STABLE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN
LATE THIS WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND. 20/00Z GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...THEN MORE DIFFERENCES APPEAR EARLY
NEXT WEEK. WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR A CONSENSUS BLEND TO SMOOTH OVER
THE MORE MINOR DIFFERENCES.

HIGH PRESSURE IN QUEBEC WILL KEEP THINGS RELATIVELY DRY ACROSS MOST
OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
THURSDAY NIGHT IF SOME MOVING PARTS COME TOGETHER. MOISTURE IS THE
MAIN LIMITING FACTOR...WITH INSTABILITY A CLOSE SECOND ONCE THE SUN
SETS.

THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL SINK SOUTH THROUGH THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...EVENTUALLY DROPPING SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND
RETURNING US TO A MORE WESTERLY FLOW. A LOW PRESSURE IN ONTARIO MAY
EVENTUALLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO QUEBEC...SWINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SOMETIME TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. DEPENDING ON
AVAILABLE MOISTURE...THIS FRONT MAY INITIATE A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THURSDAY. ONLY CAVEAT WILL BE SOME SPOTTY
GROUND FOG AT TYPICALLY PRONE AIRPORTS BOTH THIS MORNING AND AGAIN
LATE TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLY MAINLY W OF AN IJD-ORH-AFN
LINE DURING THE DAY ON THU.

FLOW SHIFTS FROM THE SW TO THE E THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...ASSISTED
BY SEA BREEZES. LIGHT AND VRB FLOW RETURNS AGAIN TONIGHT...WITH E
FLOW AGAIN ON THU.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY
MVFR/IFR FOG EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THE MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER CONTINUES. WINDS REMAIN MAINLY E
TO SE WITH A FEW GUSTS AROUND 15 KT POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
OUTER EDGE OF THE S AND SE WATERS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION.
LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY OVERNIGHT FOG LIMITING VISIBILITIES. SEAS
MAY INCREASE ON THE OUTER WATERS THIS WEEKEND AS AN OCEAN STORM
PASSES WELL EAST OF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WATERS. WNA WAVE
GUIDANCE LOOKS TO BE TOO HIGH BASED ON EXPECTED WINDS...LOWERED THIS
GUIDANCE BY 20 PERCENT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 201359
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
959 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

MAINLY DRY WEATHER...EXCEPT MAYBE A SHOWER IN THE WEST...WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. PATTERN STARTS TO BECOME A BIT MORE UNSETTLED EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

10 AM UPDATE...

PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS ALL BUT ERODED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING...THE OVERNIGHT CULPRIT BEING SURFACE
MOISTURE POOLING BENEATH A DRY INVERSION IN LOCATIONS WHERE WINDS
WERE LIGHT/VARIABLE AND CONDITIONS WERE CLEAR TO ALLOW FOR GOOD
NOCTURNAL RADIATING.

AS FOR TODAY...A DRY AND QUIET FORECAST. DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE
PREVAILING WITH THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE SWEEPING ACROSS THE REGION.
THE COMBINATION OF NEIGHBORING CLOSED LOWS OVER NE NORTH AMERICA
AND A STALLED E-W FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC RESULTS IN
CONTINUED STRENGTH AND INFLUENCE OF THE LABRADOR HIGH. AIR NEEDS
TO SINK SOMEWHERE BETWEEN AREAS OF CONVERGENCE.

AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE PUSHES E LATE IN THE DAY...HEIGHTS WILL
LOWER INTO THE CT-VALLEY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE H5 TROUGH AXIS
AND VORTICITY. THOUGH ASCENT IS LACKING AS BETTER DYNAMICS ALONG
WITH THE SURFACE WARM-FRONT RESIDE W. PERHAPS SOME INCREASING
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND WEAK SW-ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE COULD YIELD A
SPRINKLE INTO W NEW ENGLAND...THOUGH THE ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR PER
THE 12Z CHATHAM SOUNDING /PWAT OF 0.64 INCHES FOR MID-AUGUST!?/
AND INFLUENCE OF THE LABRADOR HIGH AND ATTENDANT SUBSIDENCE WILL
MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR ANY MOISTURE TO PROCEED E OF THE CT-RIVER
VALLEY LET ALONE REACH THE GROUND.

A WARMER AIRMASS STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE SW COMBINED
WITH A MIXING BOUNDARY LAYER UP TO H85 /+12-14C/ SHOULD ALLOW
HIGHS OF AROUND THE LOW-80S /SEASONABLE/. COOLER ALONG THE
SHORELINES WITH ANTICIPATED SEA-BREEZES EXPECTED AROUND LATE-
MORNING. EXPECT SOME GUSTY E-WINDS BEHIND THE SEA-BREEZE AROUND
10 MPH. A FEW SITES INTO THE MID-80S WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING
ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS OUT OF PA/NY MAY CURTAIL SOME OF THE
DAYTIME HEATING...BUT THERE IS EVIDENCE OF ITS EROSION E...SO WILL
PREVAIL WITH PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS FOR AREAS MAINLY AROUND AND
W OF THE WORCESTER HILLS. MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS TO THE E WITH
ONSHORE SEA-BREEZE AND ADVECTION OF A MARINE STABLE LAYER...ALSO
THE GREATER DEEP-LAYER INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR /AGAIN...SEE THE 12Z
CHATHAM SOUNDING/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...

TONIGHT...

THE APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND GRADUALLY OPENING UPPER LVL
CUTOFF...COMBINED WITH GRADUAL MOISTURE LOADING OF THE COLUMN IS
LIKELY TO LEAD TO MORE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION THAN PREVIOUS
NIGHTS. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION A SHOWER IS ABLE TO SLIDE ACROSS
THE W...BUT BOTH JET AND VORTICITY RELATED DYNAMICS ARE QUITE
WEAK AND OVERALL COLUMN MOISTURE REMAINS FAIRLY LOW UNTIL THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN A MOSTLY DRY
FORECAST EXCEPT THE EXTREME WRN FRINGES OF THE BOX CWA THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...GIVEN THE INCREASED MOISTURE /CLOUD
COVER/ AND WARMER EVENING TEMPERATURES EXPECT THAT OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS IN SPITE OF THE NEAR CALM FLOW
ONCE AGAIN. MORE WIDESPREAD MID 50S WITH EVEN SOME NORMAL HEAT
ISLANDS HOLDING IN THE LOW-MID 60S ARE EXPECTED.

THURSDAY...

INVERTED RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE...AND MAINLY E-SE FLOW EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION. THE MARINE INFLUENCE IS LIKELY TO STAVE OFF
APPROACHING WARM FRONT AS IT/S ATTENDANT UPPER LVL CUTOFF
DIMINISHES TO AN OPEN WAVE WITH CUTOFF HIGH PRES TO THE N. UPPER
LVL AND LOW LVL JETS ARE WEAK AND WITH OVERALL VORTICITY
DECREASING...THEREFORE DYNAMIC FORCING IS RELATIVELY WEAK EVEN AS
OVERALL COLUMN MOISTURE INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY /PWATS APPROACH
1.75 INCHES/. ALSO...WITH MARINE FLOW AND WARM FRONT TRAPPED TO
THE W...IT/S UNLIKELY THAT THERE WILL BE MUCH DESTABILIZATION
THROUGH THE DAY. GIVEN ALL OF THIS...THE THREAT FOR SHOWERY
ACTIVITY REMAINS FAIRLY LOW. WILL FOCUS ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS W OF
THE CT VALLEY...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO THE WORCESTER HILLS.
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD DIVE TO THE SW OF THE REGION WHERE
INSTABILITY AXIS RESIDES. HAVE KEPT THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST
WITH THIS UPDATE DUE TO THE MARINE FLOW AND MODEST LAPSE RATES.
THE ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND MARINE FLOW ARE ALSO LIKELY TO KEEP
HIGH TEMPS COOLER THAN NORMAL /MAINLY MID 70S/ DURING THE DAY THU.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
* UNCERTAINTY INCREASES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT

RATHER UNIQUE AND STABLE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN
LATE THIS WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND. 20/00Z GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...THEN MORE DIFFERENCES APPEAR EARLY
NEXT WEEK. WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR A CONSENSUS BLEND TO SMOOTH OVER
THE MORE MINOR DIFFERENCES.

HIGH PRESSURE IN QUEBEC WILL KEEP THINGS RELATIVELY DRY ACROSS MOST
OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
THURSDAY NIGHT IF SOME MOVING PARTS COME TOGETHER. MOISTURE IS THE
MAIN LIMITING FACTOR...WITH INSTABILITY A CLOSE SECOND ONCE THE SUN
SETS.

THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL SINK SOUTH THROUGH THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...EVENTUALLY DROPPING SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND
RETURNING US TO A MORE WESTERLY FLOW. A LOW PRESSURE IN ONTARIO MAY
EVENTUALLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO QUEBEC...SWINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SOMETIME TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. DEPENDING ON
AVAILABLE MOISTURE...THIS FRONT MAY INITIATE A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THURSDAY. ONLY CAVEAT WILL BE SOME SPOTTY
GROUND FOG AT TYPICALLY PRONE AIRPORTS BOTH THIS MORNING AND AGAIN
LATE TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLY MAINLY W OF AN IJD-ORH-AFN
LINE DURING THE DAY ON THU.

FLOW SHIFTS FROM THE SW TO THE E THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...ASSISTED
BY SEA BREEZES. LIGHT AND VRB FLOW RETURNS AGAIN TONIGHT...WITH E
FLOW AGAIN ON THU.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY
MVFR/IFR FOG EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THE MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER CONTINUES. WINDS REMAIN MAINLY E
TO SE WITH A FEW GUSTS AROUND 15 KT POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
OUTER EDGE OF THE S AND SE WATERS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION.
LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY OVERNIGHT FOG LIMITING VISIBILITIES. SEAS
MAY INCREASE ON THE OUTER WATERS THIS WEEKEND AS AN OCEAN STORM
PASSES WELL EAST OF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WATERS. WNA WAVE
GUIDANCE LOOKS TO BE TOO HIGH BASED ON EXPECTED WINDS...LOWERED THIS
GUIDANCE BY 20 PERCENT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KOKX 201300
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
900 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ANCHORED OVER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH FOR FRIDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR THE
WEEKEND...THEN SLOWLY SLIDES OFFSHORE EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS NYC & POINTS N/W...AS WELL AS SOUTHERN
CT THROUGH 15Z OR SO. THIS IS TO ACCOUNT FOR OBSERVATIONAL AND
MODEL TRENDS THAT MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES WILL EXIST UNTIL
LATE MORNING. PARTLY SUNNY MOST AREAS THEREAFTER.

DEVELOPING SE FLOW TODAY. WITH SUBSIDENCE HANGING
ON...PARTICULARLY ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN AREAS...MOST OF THE CWA
SHOULD BE PTCLDY AND DRY. ACROSS THE FAR WRN/NWRN FRINGE...FALLING
HEIGHTS ALONG WITH UP TO 1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE PER THE NAM COULD
SPRING SOME SHRA/TSTMS. MAIN THREAT STILL W OF THE CWA WITH THE
EMBEDDED SHRTWV NOT ARRIVING TIL ABOUT 00Z.

TEMPS RIGHT ABOUT OR JUST BLW CLIMO. FCST IS CLOSE TO THE GMOS25.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
INSTABILITY WANES WITH CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW ALONG WITH A LOSS OF
SFC HEATING. THEREFORE THE SHRTWV IS EXPECTED TO HAVE A MINIMAL
EFFECT ATTM AND PRODUCE ONLY A FEW SHRA AS IT TRAVERSES THE CWA
THIS EVE/TNGT. ANY TSTMS WOULD NEED TO BE ELEVATED DUE TO THE
STABLE MARINE LAYER. AS A RESULT...HAVE NOT INCLUDED TSTMS IN THE
FCST FOR TNGT.

00Z MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE UPR LOW SPINNING OVER THE UP OF MI
WILL DROP HEIGHTS ON THU AND ATTEMPT TO TRIGGER SHRA OR TSTMS.
INSTABILITY WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR...WITH A MARINE STRATUS
DECK LIKELY PENETRATING ALMOST THE ENTIRE CWA. INCLUDED TSTMS ONLY
ON THE WRN AND NRN PERIPHERY OF THE CWA...WITH ONLY SHRA
ELSEWHERE. WHERE THE INSTABILITY DOES MATERIALIZE...THE SETUP IS
RIPE FOR MULTICELLULAR HVY RAINERS IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND PW/S
ABOUT 125-150 PERCENT OF NORMAL.

TEMPS COOLER DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH IN PLACE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH WEAK CUT OFF
UPPER LOW WEAKENING OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA
WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO THE NORTHEAST. UPPER TROUGH WILL SET OFF SOME
SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY FOR WESTERN
SECTIONS. SOME SURFACE BASED CAPE...A FEW HUNDRED TO JUST UNDER 1000
J/KG DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL YOU LOOK AT...WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH A LACK OF ANY
STRONG LIFTING MECHANISM...THE CHANCE FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DIMINISH AS THE SUN SETS.

OMEGA BLOCK IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH DRY CONDITIONS IN STORE. AN EXTENDED NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
MEAN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR FOR THE
WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S ON SATURDAY...AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER SUNDAY. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...EVEN IN THE NYC METRO REGION.

THE HIGH PUSHES OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
THE RETURN FLOW WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK UP TO MORE NORMAL
VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...BUT CONDITIONS
SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA.

IFR STRATUS/RADIATION FOG OVER CT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT AND
DISSIPATE BY 14Z. OTHERWISE...VFR FCST WITH SCT-BKN 040-050 THIS
MORNING SCATTERS THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN OVER CENTRAL
PA AND WESTERN NY THIS AFTN.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS REMAIN SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST TODAY...WITH
SPEEDS INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON TO AROUND 10 KTS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: A EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND OFF THE SOUND WILL
EVENTUALLY GIVE WAY TO SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. TIMING
OF WIND SHIFT MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR TWO.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS REMAIN SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST TODAY...WITH
SPEEDS INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON TO AROUND 10 KTS.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THU THROUGH SUN...
.THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR...ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS
POSSIBLE ACROSS NYC METRO AND LOWER HUDSON VALLEY TERMINALS COULD
RESULT IN LOWER CONDITIONS
.FRI-SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS THRU THU. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED
FRI THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. A PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
WILL ALLOW WAVES TO BUILD TO 5 FT FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
OCEAN ZONE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY. GUSTS ON
SATURDAY WILL REACH THE LOWER 20 KT RANGE...AND SLIGHTLY LESS ON
SUNDAY. GUSTS AT OR JUST ABOVE 25 KT ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE
WEEKEND...BUT DOES NOT LOOK LIKELY AS OF NOW. GUSTS DIMINISH INTO
THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FEW TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE THU...MAINLY ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY
INTO NJ AWAY FROM THE COAST. ANY TSTMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE LOCALLY HVY RAIN...HOWEVER BASIN AVE PCPN OF LESS THAN 1/4
INCH IS EXPECTED ATTM. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MINOR POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING FROM ANY OF THIS TSTM ACTIVITY.

NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/JP
NEAR TERM...JMC/PICCA/JP
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JST
MARINE...JMC/JP
HYDROLOGY...JMC/JP









000
FXUS61 KOKX 201300
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
900 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ANCHORED OVER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH FOR FRIDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR THE
WEEKEND...THEN SLOWLY SLIDES OFFSHORE EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS NYC & POINTS N/W...AS WELL AS SOUTHERN
CT THROUGH 15Z OR SO. THIS IS TO ACCOUNT FOR OBSERVATIONAL AND
MODEL TRENDS THAT MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES WILL EXIST UNTIL
LATE MORNING. PARTLY SUNNY MOST AREAS THEREAFTER.

DEVELOPING SE FLOW TODAY. WITH SUBSIDENCE HANGING
ON...PARTICULARLY ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN AREAS...MOST OF THE CWA
SHOULD BE PTCLDY AND DRY. ACROSS THE FAR WRN/NWRN FRINGE...FALLING
HEIGHTS ALONG WITH UP TO 1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE PER THE NAM COULD
SPRING SOME SHRA/TSTMS. MAIN THREAT STILL W OF THE CWA WITH THE
EMBEDDED SHRTWV NOT ARRIVING TIL ABOUT 00Z.

TEMPS RIGHT ABOUT OR JUST BLW CLIMO. FCST IS CLOSE TO THE GMOS25.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
INSTABILITY WANES WITH CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW ALONG WITH A LOSS OF
SFC HEATING. THEREFORE THE SHRTWV IS EXPECTED TO HAVE A MINIMAL
EFFECT ATTM AND PRODUCE ONLY A FEW SHRA AS IT TRAVERSES THE CWA
THIS EVE/TNGT. ANY TSTMS WOULD NEED TO BE ELEVATED DUE TO THE
STABLE MARINE LAYER. AS A RESULT...HAVE NOT INCLUDED TSTMS IN THE
FCST FOR TNGT.

00Z MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE UPR LOW SPINNING OVER THE UP OF MI
WILL DROP HEIGHTS ON THU AND ATTEMPT TO TRIGGER SHRA OR TSTMS.
INSTABILITY WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR...WITH A MARINE STRATUS
DECK LIKELY PENETRATING ALMOST THE ENTIRE CWA. INCLUDED TSTMS ONLY
ON THE WRN AND NRN PERIPHERY OF THE CWA...WITH ONLY SHRA
ELSEWHERE. WHERE THE INSTABILITY DOES MATERIALIZE...THE SETUP IS
RIPE FOR MULTICELLULAR HVY RAINERS IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND PW/S
ABOUT 125-150 PERCENT OF NORMAL.

TEMPS COOLER DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH IN PLACE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH WEAK CUT OFF
UPPER LOW WEAKENING OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA
WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO THE NORTHEAST. UPPER TROUGH WILL SET OFF SOME
SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY FOR WESTERN
SECTIONS. SOME SURFACE BASED CAPE...A FEW HUNDRED TO JUST UNDER 1000
J/KG DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL YOU LOOK AT...WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH A LACK OF ANY
STRONG LIFTING MECHANISM...THE CHANCE FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DIMINISH AS THE SUN SETS.

OMEGA BLOCK IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH DRY CONDITIONS IN STORE. AN EXTENDED NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
MEAN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR FOR THE
WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S ON SATURDAY...AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER SUNDAY. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...EVEN IN THE NYC METRO REGION.

THE HIGH PUSHES OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
THE RETURN FLOW WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK UP TO MORE NORMAL
VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...BUT CONDITIONS
SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA.

IFR STRATUS/RADIATION FOG OVER CT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT AND
DISSIPATE BY 14Z. OTHERWISE...VFR FCST WITH SCT-BKN 040-050 THIS
MORNING SCATTERS THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN OVER CENTRAL
PA AND WESTERN NY THIS AFTN.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS REMAIN SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST TODAY...WITH
SPEEDS INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON TO AROUND 10 KTS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: A EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND OFF THE SOUND WILL
EVENTUALLY GIVE WAY TO SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. TIMING
OF WIND SHIFT MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR TWO.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS REMAIN SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST TODAY...WITH
SPEEDS INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON TO AROUND 10 KTS.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THU THROUGH SUN...
.THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR...ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS
POSSIBLE ACROSS NYC METRO AND LOWER HUDSON VALLEY TERMINALS COULD
RESULT IN LOWER CONDITIONS
.FRI-SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS THRU THU. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED
FRI THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. A PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
WILL ALLOW WAVES TO BUILD TO 5 FT FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
OCEAN ZONE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY. GUSTS ON
SATURDAY WILL REACH THE LOWER 20 KT RANGE...AND SLIGHTLY LESS ON
SUNDAY. GUSTS AT OR JUST ABOVE 25 KT ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE
WEEKEND...BUT DOES NOT LOOK LIKELY AS OF NOW. GUSTS DIMINISH INTO
THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FEW TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE THU...MAINLY ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY
INTO NJ AWAY FROM THE COAST. ANY TSTMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE LOCALLY HVY RAIN...HOWEVER BASIN AVE PCPN OF LESS THAN 1/4
INCH IS EXPECTED ATTM. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MINOR POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING FROM ANY OF THIS TSTM ACTIVITY.

NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/JP
NEAR TERM...JMC/PICCA/JP
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JST
MARINE...JMC/JP
HYDROLOGY...JMC/JP










000
FXUS61 KOKX 201141
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
741 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ANCHORED OVER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH FOR FRIDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR THE
WEEKEND...THEN SLOWLY SLIDES OFFSHORE EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RADIATIONAL FOG ACROSS THE AREA IS BEGINNING TO LIFT SO SPS
HIGHLIGHTING PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 12Z.
OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO FORECAST TO REFLECT CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS.

DEVELOPING SE FLOW TODAY. WITH SUBSIDENCE HANGING
ON...PARTICULARLY ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN AREAS...MOST OF THE CWA
SHOULD BE PTCLDY AND DRY. ACROSS THE FAR WRN/NWRN FRINGE...FALLING
HEIGHTS ALONG WITH UP TO 1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE PER THE NAM COULD
SPRING SOME SHRA/TSTMS. MAIN THREAT STILL W OF THE CWA WITH THE
EMBEDDED SHRTWV NOT ARRIVING TIL ABOUT 00Z.

TEMPS RIGHT ABOUT OR JUST BLW CLIMO. FCST IS CLOSE TO THE GMOS25.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
INSTABILITY WANES WITH CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW ALONG WITH A LOSS OF
SFC HEATING. THEREFORE THE SHRTWV IS EXPECTED TO HAVE A MINIMAL
EFFECT ATTM AND PRODUCE ONLY A FEW SHRA AS IT TRAVERSES THE CWA
THIS EVE/TNGT. ANY TSTMS WOULD NEED TO BE ELEVATED DUE TO THE
STABLE MARINE LAYER. AS A RESULT...HAVE NOT INCLUDED TSTMS IN THE
FCST FOR TNGT.

00Z MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE UPR LOW SPINNING OVER THE UP OF MI
WILL DROP HEIGHTS ON THU AND ATTEMPT TO TRIGGER SHRA OR TSTMS.
INSTABILITY WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR...WITH A MARINE STRATUS
DECK LIKELY PENETRATING ALMOST THE ENTIRE CWA. INCLUDED TSTMS ONLY
ON THE WRN AND NRN PERIPHERY OF THE CWA...WITH ONLY SHRA
ELSEWHERE. WHERE THE INSTABILITY DOES MATERIALIZE...THE SETUP IS
RIPE FOR MULTICELLULAR HVY RAINERS IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND PW/S
ABOUT 125-150 PERCENT OF NORMAL.

TEMPS COOLER DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH IN PLACE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH WEAK CUT OFF
UPPER LOW WEAKENING OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA
WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO THE NORTHEAST. UPPER TROUGH WILL SET OFF SOME
SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY FOR WESTERN
SECTIONS. SOME SURFACE BASED CAPE...A FEW HUNDRED TO JUST UNDER 1000
J/KG DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL YOU LOOK AT...WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH A LACK OF ANY
STRONG LIFTING MECHANISM...THE CHANCE FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DIMINISH AS THE SUN SETS.

OMEGA BLOCK IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH DRY CONDITIONS IN STORE. AN EXTENDED NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
MEAN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR FOR THE
WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S ON SATURDAY...AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER SUNDAY. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...EVEN IN THE NYC METRO REGION.

THE HIGH PUSHES OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
THE RETURN FLOW WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK UP TO MORE NORMAL
VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...BUT CONDITIONS
SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA.

ANY STRATUS AND FOG BURNS OFF QUICKLY BEFORE 13-14Z. OTHERWISE...VFR
WITH SCT CU TODAY. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE
WELL NORTH AND WEST OF NYC THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER ANY ACTIVITY
WOULD BE TOO ISOLATED TO INCLUDE IN TERMINAL FORECASTS.

A LARGER AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WELL TO THE WEST DURING
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE AREA
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS TONIGHT. MAINLY VFR.

LIGHT WINDS BECOME SOUTHEAST/SOUTH AT 6 TO 11 KTS THIS AFTERNOON MOST
TERMINALS.

WINDS LIGHTEN BY EVENING.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS REMAIN SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST TODAY...WITH
SPEEDS INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON TO AROUND 10 KTS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: A EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND OFF THE SOUND WILL
EVENTUALLY GIVE WAY TO SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. TIMING
OF WIND SHIFT MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR TWO.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS REMAIN SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST TODAY...WITH
SPEEDS INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON TO AROUND 10 KTS.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: ANY STRATUS QUICKLY BURNS OFF GIVING WAY TO
VFR CONDITIONS TODAY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THU THROUGH SUN...
.THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR...ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS
POSSIBLE ACROSS NYC METRO AND LOWER HUDSON VALLEY TERMINALS COULD
RESULT IN LOWER CONDITIONS
.FRI-SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS THRU THU. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED
FRI THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. A PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
WILL ALLOW WAVES TO BUILD TO 5 FT FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
OCEAN ZONE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY. GUSTS ON
SATURDAY WILL REACH THE LOWER 20 KT RANGE...AND SLIGHTLY LESS ON
SUNDAY. GUSTS AT OR JUST ABOVE 25 KT ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE
WEEKEND...BUT DOES NOT LOOK LIKELY AS OF NOW. GUSTS DIMINISH INTO
THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FEW TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE THU...MAINLY ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY
INTO NJ AWAY FROM THE COAST. ANY TSTMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE LOCALLY HVY RAIN...HOWEVER BASIN AVE PCPN OF LESS THAN 1/4
INCH IS EXPECTED ATTM. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MINOR POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING FROM ANY OF THIS TSTM ACTIVITY.

NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/JP
NEAR TERM...JMC/JP
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...JMC/JP
HYDROLOGY...JMC/JP






000
FXUS61 KOKX 201141
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
741 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ANCHORED OVER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH FOR FRIDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR THE
WEEKEND...THEN SLOWLY SLIDES OFFSHORE EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RADIATIONAL FOG ACROSS THE AREA IS BEGINNING TO LIFT SO SPS
HIGHLIGHTING PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 12Z.
OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO FORECAST TO REFLECT CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS.

DEVELOPING SE FLOW TODAY. WITH SUBSIDENCE HANGING
ON...PARTICULARLY ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN AREAS...MOST OF THE CWA
SHOULD BE PTCLDY AND DRY. ACROSS THE FAR WRN/NWRN FRINGE...FALLING
HEIGHTS ALONG WITH UP TO 1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE PER THE NAM COULD
SPRING SOME SHRA/TSTMS. MAIN THREAT STILL W OF THE CWA WITH THE
EMBEDDED SHRTWV NOT ARRIVING TIL ABOUT 00Z.

TEMPS RIGHT ABOUT OR JUST BLW CLIMO. FCST IS CLOSE TO THE GMOS25.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
INSTABILITY WANES WITH CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW ALONG WITH A LOSS OF
SFC HEATING. THEREFORE THE SHRTWV IS EXPECTED TO HAVE A MINIMAL
EFFECT ATTM AND PRODUCE ONLY A FEW SHRA AS IT TRAVERSES THE CWA
THIS EVE/TNGT. ANY TSTMS WOULD NEED TO BE ELEVATED DUE TO THE
STABLE MARINE LAYER. AS A RESULT...HAVE NOT INCLUDED TSTMS IN THE
FCST FOR TNGT.

00Z MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE UPR LOW SPINNING OVER THE UP OF MI
WILL DROP HEIGHTS ON THU AND ATTEMPT TO TRIGGER SHRA OR TSTMS.
INSTABILITY WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR...WITH A MARINE STRATUS
DECK LIKELY PENETRATING ALMOST THE ENTIRE CWA. INCLUDED TSTMS ONLY
ON THE WRN AND NRN PERIPHERY OF THE CWA...WITH ONLY SHRA
ELSEWHERE. WHERE THE INSTABILITY DOES MATERIALIZE...THE SETUP IS
RIPE FOR MULTICELLULAR HVY RAINERS IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND PW/S
ABOUT 125-150 PERCENT OF NORMAL.

TEMPS COOLER DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH IN PLACE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH WEAK CUT OFF
UPPER LOW WEAKENING OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA
WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO THE NORTHEAST. UPPER TROUGH WILL SET OFF SOME
SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY FOR WESTERN
SECTIONS. SOME SURFACE BASED CAPE...A FEW HUNDRED TO JUST UNDER 1000
J/KG DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL YOU LOOK AT...WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH A LACK OF ANY
STRONG LIFTING MECHANISM...THE CHANCE FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DIMINISH AS THE SUN SETS.

OMEGA BLOCK IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH DRY CONDITIONS IN STORE. AN EXTENDED NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
MEAN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR FOR THE
WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S ON SATURDAY...AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER SUNDAY. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...EVEN IN THE NYC METRO REGION.

THE HIGH PUSHES OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
THE RETURN FLOW WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK UP TO MORE NORMAL
VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...BUT CONDITIONS
SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA.

ANY STRATUS AND FOG BURNS OFF QUICKLY BEFORE 13-14Z. OTHERWISE...VFR
WITH SCT CU TODAY. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE
WELL NORTH AND WEST OF NYC THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER ANY ACTIVITY
WOULD BE TOO ISOLATED TO INCLUDE IN TERMINAL FORECASTS.

A LARGER AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WELL TO THE WEST DURING
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE AREA
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS TONIGHT. MAINLY VFR.

LIGHT WINDS BECOME SOUTHEAST/SOUTH AT 6 TO 11 KTS THIS AFTERNOON MOST
TERMINALS.

WINDS LIGHTEN BY EVENING.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS REMAIN SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST TODAY...WITH
SPEEDS INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON TO AROUND 10 KTS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: A EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND OFF THE SOUND WILL
EVENTUALLY GIVE WAY TO SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. TIMING
OF WIND SHIFT MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR TWO.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS REMAIN SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST TODAY...WITH
SPEEDS INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON TO AROUND 10 KTS.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: ANY STRATUS QUICKLY BURNS OFF GIVING WAY TO
VFR CONDITIONS TODAY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THU THROUGH SUN...
.THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR...ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS
POSSIBLE ACROSS NYC METRO AND LOWER HUDSON VALLEY TERMINALS COULD
RESULT IN LOWER CONDITIONS
.FRI-SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS THRU THU. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED
FRI THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. A PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
WILL ALLOW WAVES TO BUILD TO 5 FT FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
OCEAN ZONE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY. GUSTS ON
SATURDAY WILL REACH THE LOWER 20 KT RANGE...AND SLIGHTLY LESS ON
SUNDAY. GUSTS AT OR JUST ABOVE 25 KT ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE
WEEKEND...BUT DOES NOT LOOK LIKELY AS OF NOW. GUSTS DIMINISH INTO
THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FEW TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE THU...MAINLY ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY
INTO NJ AWAY FROM THE COAST. ANY TSTMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE LOCALLY HVY RAIN...HOWEVER BASIN AVE PCPN OF LESS THAN 1/4
INCH IS EXPECTED ATTM. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MINOR POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING FROM ANY OF THIS TSTM ACTIVITY.

NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/JP
NEAR TERM...JMC/JP
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...JMC/JP
HYDROLOGY...JMC/JP







000
FXUS61 KBOX 201126
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
726 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER...EXCEPT MAYBE A SHOWER IN THE WEST...WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. PATTERN STARTS TO BECOME A BIT MORE UNSETTLED EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
725 AM UPDATE...

PATCHY DENSE FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
SOUTHEAST MA AND RI STILL EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AROUND 8 AM. THIS
WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. VERY WEAK WINDS THIS MORNING
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A SLIGHTLY QUICKER ONSET OF SEA BREEZES THAN
TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR TWEAKS NEEDED TO BRING NEAR-TERM
CONDITIONS BACK INTO LINE WITH OBSERVED TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

SOME LEFTOVER BKN-OVC CI CONTINUES TO MOVE E OF THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING...BUT NOT BEFORE SLOWING THE OVERNIGHT RADIATIONAL
COOLING PROCESS. THEREFORE...ALTHOUGH A FEW MORE HOURS OF
POTENTIAL COOLING REMAIN...MINS ARE LIKELY TO BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER ACROSS THE BOARD THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS. SO A COOL...BUT NOT
QUITE AS COOL START THIS MORNING AS TUE MORNING.

OTHERWISE TODAY...A TALE OF 3 LOW PRES CENTERS...TWO ALOFT AND ONE
WELL TO THE SE OF SRN NEW ENGLAND. IN BETWEEN INVERTED RIDGE OF
HIGH PRES IS LIKELY TO REMAIN IN PLACE...ASSISTED BY SUBSIDENCE
BETWEEN THESE FEATURES. ALTHOUGH A WARM FRONT /ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WRN UPPER LVL CUTOFF SLIDING E/ WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE W IT
IS UNLIKELY TO HAVE MUCH OF AN EFFECT ON SRN NEW ENGLAND. THIS IS
THANKS TO THE SUBSIDENCE AND AN ALREADY DRY COLUMN ACROSS THE
REGION. HOWEVER...DUE NOTE SOME MOISTURE LOADING OF THE COLUMN
FROM THE TOP-DOWN SO WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SLOWLY BUILDING CLOUD
COVER ESPECIALLY FROM THE WORCESTER HILLS-W.

TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO BE BIT WARMER TODAY AS WELL THANKS TO A
SLIGHTLY WARMER START AND H85 TEMPS APPROACHING +14C.
THEREFORE...EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD LOW-MID 80S THAN YESTERDAY FOR
HIGHS. NEAR SHORE...SEA BREEZES LIKELY HOLD TEMPS MAINLY IN THE
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...
THE APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND GRADUALLY OPENING UPPER LVL
CUTOFF...COMBINED WITH GRADUAL MOISTURE LOADING OF THE COLUMN IS
LIKELY TO LEAD TO MORE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION THAN PREVIOUS
NIGHTS. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION A SHOWER IS ABLE TO SLIDE ACROSS
THE W...BUT BOTH JET AND VORTICITY RELATED DYNAMICS ARE QUITE
WEAK AND OVERALL COLUMN MOISTURE REMAINS FAIRLY LOW UNTIL THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN A MOSTLY DRY
FORECAST EXCEPT THE EXTREME WRN FRINGES OF THE BOX CWA THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...GIVEN THE INCREASED MOISTURE /CLOUD
COVER/ AND WARMER EVENING TEMPERATURES EXPECT THAT OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS IN SPITE OF THE NEAR CALM FLOW
ONCE AGAIN. MORE WIDESPREAD MID 50S WITH EVEN SOME NORMAL HEAT
ISLANDS HOLDING IN THE LOW-MID 60S ARE EXPECTED.

THU...
INVERTED RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE...AND MAINLY E-SE FLOW EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION. THE MARINE INFLUENCE IS LIKELY TO STAVE OFF
APPROACHING WARM FRONT AS IT/S ATTENDANT UPPER LVL CUTOFF
DIMINISHES TO AN OPEN WAVE WITH CUTOFF HIGH PRES TO THE N. UPPER
LVL AND LOW LVL JETS ARE WEAK AND WITH OVERALL VORTICITY
DECREASING...THEREFORE DYNAMIC FORCING IS RELATIVELY WEAK EVEN AS
OVERALL COLUMN MOISTURE INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY /PWATS APPROACH
1.75 INCHES/. ALSO...WITH MARINE FLOW AND WARM FRONT TRAPPED TO
THE W...IT/S UNLIKELY THAT THERE WILL BE MUCH DESTABILIZATION
THROUGH THE DAY. GIVEN ALL OF THIS...THE THREAT FOR SHOWERY
ACTIVITY REMAINS FAIRLY LOW. WILL FOCUS ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS W OF
THE CT VALLEY...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO THE WORCESTER HILLS.
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD DIVE TO THE SW OF THE REGION WHERE
INSTABILITY AXIS RESIDES. HAVE KEPT THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST
WITH THIS UPDATE DUE TO THE MARINE FLOW AND MODEST LAPSE RATES.
THE ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND MARINE FLOW ARE ALSO LIKELY TO KEEP
HIGH TEMPS COOLER THAN NORMAL /MAINLY MID 70S/ DURING THE DAY THU.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
* UNCERTAINTY INCREASES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT

RATHER UNIQUE AND STABLE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN
LATE THIS WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND. 20/00Z GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...THEN MORE DIFFERENCES APPEAR EARLY
NEXT WEEK. WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR A CONSENSUS BLEND TO SMOOTH OVER
THE MORE MINOR DIFFERENCES.

HIGH PRESSURE IN QUEBEC WILL KEEP THINGS RELATIVELY DRY ACROSS MOST
OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
THURSDAY NIGHT IF SOME MOVING PARTS COME TOGETHER. MOISTURE IS THE
MAIN LIMITING FACTOR...WITH INSTABILITY A CLOSE SECOND ONCE THE SUN
SETS.

THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL SINK SOUTH THROUGH THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...EVENTUALLY DROPPING SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND
RETURNING US TO A MORE WESTERLY FLOW. A LOW PRESSURE IN ONTARIO MAY
EVENTUALLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO QUEBEC...SWINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SOMETIME TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. DEPENDING ON
AVAILABLE MOISTURE...THIS FRONT MAY INITIATE A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THU. ONLY CAVEAT WILL BE SOME SPOTTY GROUND FOG
AT TYPICALLY PRONE AIRPORTS BOTH THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLY MAINLY W OF AN IJD-ORH-AFN LINE
DURING THE DAY ON THU.

FLOW SHIFTS FROM THE SW TO THE E THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...ASSISTED
BY SEA BREEZES. LIGHT AND VRB FLOW RETURNS AGAIN TONIGHT...WITH E
FLOW AGAIN ON THU.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY
MVFR/IFR FOG EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THE MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER CONTINUES. WINDS REMAIN MAINLY E
TO SE WITH A FEW GUSTS AROUND 15 KT POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
OUTER EDGE OF THE S AND SE WATERS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION.
LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY OVERNIGHT FOG LIMITING VISIBILITIES. SEAS
MAY INCREASE ON THE OUTER WATERS THIS WEEKEND AS AN OCEAN STORM
PASSES WELL EAST OF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WATERS. WNA WAVE
GUIDANCE LOOKS TO BE TOO HIGH BASED ON EXPECTED WINDS...LOWERED THIS
GUIDANCE BY 20 PERCENT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...BELK/DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY



000
FXUS61 KBOX 201126
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
726 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER...EXCEPT MAYBE A SHOWER IN THE WEST...WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. PATTERN STARTS TO BECOME A BIT MORE UNSETTLED EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
725 AM UPDATE...

PATCHY DENSE FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
SOUTHEAST MA AND RI STILL EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AROUND 8 AM. THIS
WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. VERY WEAK WINDS THIS MORNING
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A SLIGHTLY QUICKER ONSET OF SEA BREEZES THAN
TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR TWEAKS NEEDED TO BRING NEAR-TERM
CONDITIONS BACK INTO LINE WITH OBSERVED TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

SOME LEFTOVER BKN-OVC CI CONTINUES TO MOVE E OF THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING...BUT NOT BEFORE SLOWING THE OVERNIGHT RADIATIONAL
COOLING PROCESS. THEREFORE...ALTHOUGH A FEW MORE HOURS OF
POTENTIAL COOLING REMAIN...MINS ARE LIKELY TO BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER ACROSS THE BOARD THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS. SO A COOL...BUT NOT
QUITE AS COOL START THIS MORNING AS TUE MORNING.

OTHERWISE TODAY...A TALE OF 3 LOW PRES CENTERS...TWO ALOFT AND ONE
WELL TO THE SE OF SRN NEW ENGLAND. IN BETWEEN INVERTED RIDGE OF
HIGH PRES IS LIKELY TO REMAIN IN PLACE...ASSISTED BY SUBSIDENCE
BETWEEN THESE FEATURES. ALTHOUGH A WARM FRONT /ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WRN UPPER LVL CUTOFF SLIDING E/ WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE W IT
IS UNLIKELY TO HAVE MUCH OF AN EFFECT ON SRN NEW ENGLAND. THIS IS
THANKS TO THE SUBSIDENCE AND AN ALREADY DRY COLUMN ACROSS THE
REGION. HOWEVER...DUE NOTE SOME MOISTURE LOADING OF THE COLUMN
FROM THE TOP-DOWN SO WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SLOWLY BUILDING CLOUD
COVER ESPECIALLY FROM THE WORCESTER HILLS-W.

TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO BE BIT WARMER TODAY AS WELL THANKS TO A
SLIGHTLY WARMER START AND H85 TEMPS APPROACHING +14C.
THEREFORE...EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD LOW-MID 80S THAN YESTERDAY FOR
HIGHS. NEAR SHORE...SEA BREEZES LIKELY HOLD TEMPS MAINLY IN THE
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...
THE APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND GRADUALLY OPENING UPPER LVL
CUTOFF...COMBINED WITH GRADUAL MOISTURE LOADING OF THE COLUMN IS
LIKELY TO LEAD TO MORE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION THAN PREVIOUS
NIGHTS. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION A SHOWER IS ABLE TO SLIDE ACROSS
THE W...BUT BOTH JET AND VORTICITY RELATED DYNAMICS ARE QUITE
WEAK AND OVERALL COLUMN MOISTURE REMAINS FAIRLY LOW UNTIL THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN A MOSTLY DRY
FORECAST EXCEPT THE EXTREME WRN FRINGES OF THE BOX CWA THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...GIVEN THE INCREASED MOISTURE /CLOUD
COVER/ AND WARMER EVENING TEMPERATURES EXPECT THAT OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS IN SPITE OF THE NEAR CALM FLOW
ONCE AGAIN. MORE WIDESPREAD MID 50S WITH EVEN SOME NORMAL HEAT
ISLANDS HOLDING IN THE LOW-MID 60S ARE EXPECTED.

THU...
INVERTED RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE...AND MAINLY E-SE FLOW EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION. THE MARINE INFLUENCE IS LIKELY TO STAVE OFF
APPROACHING WARM FRONT AS IT/S ATTENDANT UPPER LVL CUTOFF
DIMINISHES TO AN OPEN WAVE WITH CUTOFF HIGH PRES TO THE N. UPPER
LVL AND LOW LVL JETS ARE WEAK AND WITH OVERALL VORTICITY
DECREASING...THEREFORE DYNAMIC FORCING IS RELATIVELY WEAK EVEN AS
OVERALL COLUMN MOISTURE INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY /PWATS APPROACH
1.75 INCHES/. ALSO...WITH MARINE FLOW AND WARM FRONT TRAPPED TO
THE W...IT/S UNLIKELY THAT THERE WILL BE MUCH DESTABILIZATION
THROUGH THE DAY. GIVEN ALL OF THIS...THE THREAT FOR SHOWERY
ACTIVITY REMAINS FAIRLY LOW. WILL FOCUS ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS W OF
THE CT VALLEY...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO THE WORCESTER HILLS.
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD DIVE TO THE SW OF THE REGION WHERE
INSTABILITY AXIS RESIDES. HAVE KEPT THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST
WITH THIS UPDATE DUE TO THE MARINE FLOW AND MODEST LAPSE RATES.
THE ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND MARINE FLOW ARE ALSO LIKELY TO KEEP
HIGH TEMPS COOLER THAN NORMAL /MAINLY MID 70S/ DURING THE DAY THU.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
* UNCERTAINTY INCREASES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT

RATHER UNIQUE AND STABLE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN
LATE THIS WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND. 20/00Z GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...THEN MORE DIFFERENCES APPEAR EARLY
NEXT WEEK. WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR A CONSENSUS BLEND TO SMOOTH OVER
THE MORE MINOR DIFFERENCES.

HIGH PRESSURE IN QUEBEC WILL KEEP THINGS RELATIVELY DRY ACROSS MOST
OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
THURSDAY NIGHT IF SOME MOVING PARTS COME TOGETHER. MOISTURE IS THE
MAIN LIMITING FACTOR...WITH INSTABILITY A CLOSE SECOND ONCE THE SUN
SETS.

THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL SINK SOUTH THROUGH THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...EVENTUALLY DROPPING SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND
RETURNING US TO A MORE WESTERLY FLOW. A LOW PRESSURE IN ONTARIO MAY
EVENTUALLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO QUEBEC...SWINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SOMETIME TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. DEPENDING ON
AVAILABLE MOISTURE...THIS FRONT MAY INITIATE A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THU. ONLY CAVEAT WILL BE SOME SPOTTY GROUND FOG
AT TYPICALLY PRONE AIRPORTS BOTH THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLY MAINLY W OF AN IJD-ORH-AFN LINE
DURING THE DAY ON THU.

FLOW SHIFTS FROM THE SW TO THE E THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...ASSISTED
BY SEA BREEZES. LIGHT AND VRB FLOW RETURNS AGAIN TONIGHT...WITH E
FLOW AGAIN ON THU.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY
MVFR/IFR FOG EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THE MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER CONTINUES. WINDS REMAIN MAINLY E
TO SE WITH A FEW GUSTS AROUND 15 KT POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
OUTER EDGE OF THE S AND SE WATERS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION.
LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY OVERNIGHT FOG LIMITING VISIBILITIES. SEAS
MAY INCREASE ON THE OUTER WATERS THIS WEEKEND AS AN OCEAN STORM
PASSES WELL EAST OF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WATERS. WNA WAVE
GUIDANCE LOOKS TO BE TOO HIGH BASED ON EXPECTED WINDS...LOWERED THIS
GUIDANCE BY 20 PERCENT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...BELK/DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KALY 201055
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
655 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL
BEGIN TO IMPACT OUR REGION TODAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. AS THIS SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES SOUTHEAST...IT WILL
KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
REGION THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS THE WEAK SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES SLIDES SLOWLY SOUTHEAST...
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TODAY...WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS SLOWLY
INCREASING LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL BE
MOST NUMEROUS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY...WITH LITTLE IF ANY
RAINFALL OCCURRING OVER THE WESTERN NEW ENGLAND ZONES.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S...AND IT WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY HUMID AS DEWPOINTS INCREASE INTO THE LOW OR MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE FEATURE MOVING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS IT SLOWLY SLIDES OFF
THE EAST COAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. ON FRIDAY...CONDITIONS
WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT AS DRIER AIR TRIES TO FILTER INTO THE REGION
FROM NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WHICH WILL BE THE RESULT OF THE FLOW
AROUND A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

FROM TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY LIKELY POPS ARE
FORECAST FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY WESTWARD...AND CHANCE POPS FURTHER
EAST. AS THE SYSTEM SLIDES OFF THE EAST COAST...POPS ARE FORECAST TO
DECREASE THURSDAY NIGHT...LOWERING TO ONLY 20 PERCENT ON FRIDAY.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN THE PAST FEW NIGHTS
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE
70S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGHS FRIDAY
IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A TRANQUIL EXTENDED FORECAST IS ANTICIPATED FOR ERN NY AND WRN NEW
ENGLAND WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM ERN QUEBEC...NEW
BRUNSWICK...AND NRN NEW ENGLAND EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...AND LASTING
INTO THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS
AND FAIR WEATHER.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...A REX TYPE BLOCK SETS UP OVER ERN
CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST WITH A CLOSED H500 ANTICYCLONE OVER N-CNTRL
QUEBEC...AND DOWNSTREAM OF JAMES BAY.  A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH SETS
UP OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND JUST SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND.
THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY AND UPPER MID ATLANTIC REGION MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD SHOWERS
NEAR THE CATSKILLS FRIDAY EVENING...BUT MOST OF THE AREA WILL STAY
DRY.  THE BLOCKING RIDGE STRENGTHENS ON SATURDAY WITH THE SFC
ANTICYCLONE NEAR THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE AND NEW BRUNSWICK.  H850
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE +10C TO +12C RANGE WITH THE ONSHORE
FLOW.  LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U60S TO L70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.  WITH
THE ONSHORE FLOW...SOME STRATUS IS POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING BEFORE
BURNING OFF BEFORE NOONTIME.

SATURDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE IN
FROM NEW BRUNSWICK AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  A BROAD CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL LOW FORMS SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA.  OUR FCST AREA WILL BE
SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE DOWNSTREAM CUTOFF AND A BROADER HIGH
AMPLITUDE H500 ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE PLAINS.  THE H500 RIDGE
ACTUALLY BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES
REGION AND SE CANADA.  DRY WX IS EXPECTED BASED ON THE LATEST
ECMWF/GFS/WPC/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...AS THE UPSTREAM RIDGE LOOKS TO
DOMINATE WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS EXPECTED WITH M60S TO L70S FOR HIGHS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND MID TO U70S AND PERHAPS SOME L80S OVER
THE VALLEYS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK /TUESDAY/.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S
WITH SOME SPOTTY U40S OVER THE HIGH PEAKS.  HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY COMFORTABLE WITH SFC DEWPTS GENERALLY IN THE
50S TO L60S.  AN ONSHORE FLOW OF MARITIME AIR WILL IMPACT THE REGION
WITH THE SFC HIGH SITUATED TO THE NORTH AND EAST....AND SOME MORNING
STRATUS IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY.  A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY KICK OFF A FEW
SPRINKLES OR ISOLD SHOWERS OVER THE SRN DACKS BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT OVERALL FAIR AND DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO DOMINATE INTO THE
MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED OFFSHORE...AND A WEAK WARM FRONT IS
APPROACHING THE REGION THIS MORNING. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH
A SFC WAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM
THE WEST TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING WITH SOME MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE AT KPOU PRIOR TO NOONTIME. SCT-BKN CUMULUS 3.5-5 KFT AGL
AND MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND IN THE AFTERNOON. THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF THE
OCCLUDED FRONT WILL BE AFTER 23Z. VCSH GROUPS WERE PLACED IN THE
FCST AT ALL THE TAF SITES BTWN 23Z TO 02Z/THU. THE BETTER CHANCE
OF SHOWERS WITH MVFR/VFR CIGS VSBYS WILL BE SHORTLY BEFORE OR JUST
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM THIS MORNING...AND THEN INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 4-8 KTS. THEY WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE IN DIRECTION TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRI NIGHT-SUN: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A SLOW
MOVING AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS  WILL BE TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND WESTERN AND
CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

MINIMUM RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE BETWEEN 45 AND 60 PERCENT
AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE 60S IN MOST AREAS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS OF AROUND
15 MPH. RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS AT THIS TIME.
THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A
SLOW MOVING AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION. THE
HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND WESTERN AND
CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY INCLUDING THE CATSKILLS. UP TO AN INCH OF
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. DUE
TO LOW RIVER LEVELS AND FAIRLY DRY SOIL CONDITIONS...THERE WILL BE
LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM







000
FXUS61 KALY 200903
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
503 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL
BEGIN TO IMPACT OUR REGION TODAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. AS THIS SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES SOUTHEAST...IT WILL
KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
REGION THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS THE WEAK SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES SLIDES SLOWLY SOUTHEAST...
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TODAY...WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS SLOWLY
INCREASING LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL BE
MOST NUMEROUS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY...WITH LITTLE IF ANY
RAINFALL OCCURRING OVER THE WESTERN NEW ENGLAND ZONES.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S...AND IT WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY HUMID AS DEWPOINTS INCREASE INTO THE LOW OR MID 60S.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FEATURE MOVING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS IT SLOWLY SLIDES OFF
THE EAST COAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. ON FRIDAY...CONDITIONS
WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT AS DRIER AIR TRIES TO FILTER INTO THE REGION
FROM NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WHICH WILL BE THE RESULT OF THE FLOW
AROUND A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

FROM TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY LIKELY POPS ARE
FORECAST FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY WESTWARD...AND CHANCE POPS FURTHER
EAST. AS THE SYSTEM SLIDES OFF THE EAST COAST...POPS ARE FORECAST TO
DECREASE THURSDAY NIGHT...LOWERING TO ONLY 20 PERCENT ON FRIDAY.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN THE PAST FEW NIGHTS
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE
70S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGHS FRIDAY
IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A TRANQUIL EXTENDED FORECAST IS ANTICIPATED FOR ERN NY AND WRN NEW
ENGLAND WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM ERN QUEBEC...NEW
BRUNSWICK...AND NRN NEW ENGLAND EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...AND LASTING
INTO THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS
AND FAIR WEATHER.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...A REX TYPE BLOCK SETS UP OVER ERN
CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST WITH A CLOSED H500 ANTICYCLONE OVER N-CNTRL
QUEBEC...AND DOWNSTREAM OF JAMES BAY.  A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH SETS
UP OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND JUST SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND.
THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY AND UPPER MID ATLANTIC REGION MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD SHOWERS
NEAR THE CATSKILLS FRIDAY EVENING...BUT MOST OF THE AREA WILL STAY
DRY.  THE BLOCKING RIDGE STRENGTHENS ON SATURDAY WITH THE SFC
ANTICYCLONE NEAR THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE AND NEW BRUNSWICK.  H850
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE +10C TO +12C RANGE WITH THE ONSHORE
FLOW.  LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U60S TO L70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.  WITH
THE ONSHORE FLOW...SOME STRATUS IS POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING BEFORE
BURNING OFF BEFORE NOONTIME.

SATURDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE IN
FROM NEW BRUNSWICK AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  A BROAD CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL LOW FORMS SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA.  OUR FCST AREA WILL BE
SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE DOWNSTREAM CUTOFF AND A BROADER HIGH
AMPLITUDE H500 ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE PLAINS.  THE H500 RIDGE
ACTUALLY BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES
REGION AND SE CANADA.  DRY WX IS EXPECTED BASED ON THE LATEST
ECMWF/GFS/WPC/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...AS THE UPSTREAM RIDGE LOOKS TO
DOMINATE WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS EXPECTED WITH M60S TO L70S FOR HIGHS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND MID TO U70S AND PERHAPS SOME L80S OVER
THE VALLEYS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK /TUESDAY/.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S
WITH SOME SPOTTY U40S OVER THE HIGH PEAKS.  HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY COMFORTABLE WITH SFC DEWPTS GENERALLY IN THE
50S TO L60S.  AN ONSHORE FLOW OF MARITIME AIR WILL IMPACT THE REGION
WITH THE SFC HIGH SITUATED TO THE NORTH AND EAST....AND SOME MORNING
STRATUS IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY.  A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY KICK OFF A FEW
SPRINKLES OR ISOLD SHOWERS OVER THE SRN DACKS BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT OVERALL FAIR AND DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO DOMINATE INTO THE
MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED OFFSHORE...AND A WEAK WARM FRONT IS
APPROACHING THE REGION THIS MORNING. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH
A SFC WAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM
THE WEST TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR LEVELS THIS
MORNING WITH SOME LOW STRATUS FORMING WITH THE INCREASING LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. KPSF HAS THE BEST CHANCE FOR
IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH SOME RADIATIONAL MIST OR FOG FORMING...AND
THEN STRATUS. THE LOW-LEVEL STRATUS IS FORECASTED IN THE 1.5-2.5
KFT AGL RANGE AT KGFL/KALB/KPOU BTWN 09Z-12Z...AND SHOULD BURN OFF
SHORTLY THEREAFTER. KPSF MAY HAVE IT LINGER UNTIL 15Z. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN THEREAFTER WITH SCT-BKN CUMULUS 4-5 KFT AGL
AND MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AROUND. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH A
MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT WILL BE AFTER
22Z TODAY. VCSH GROUPS WERE PLACED IN THE FCST AT ALL THE TAF
SITES BTWN 22Z TO 00Z/THU.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM THIS MORNING...AND THEN INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 4-8 KTS. THEY WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WED NT - THU NT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRI-SUN: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A SLOW
MOVING AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS  WILL BE TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND WESTERN AND
CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

MINIMUM RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE BETWEEN 45 AND 60 PERCENT
AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE 60S IN MOST AREAS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS OF AROUND
15 MPH. RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS AT THIS TIME.
THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A
SLOW MOVING AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION. THE
HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND WESTERN AND
CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY INCLUDING THE CATSKILLS. UP TO AN INCH OF
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. DUE
TO LOW RIVER LEVELS AND FAIRLY DRY SOIL CONDITIONS...THERE WILL BE
LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM






000
FXUS61 KALY 200903
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
503 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL
BEGIN TO IMPACT OUR REGION TODAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. AS THIS SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES SOUTHEAST...IT WILL
KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
REGION THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS THE WEAK SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES SLIDES SLOWLY SOUTHEAST...
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TODAY...WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS SLOWLY
INCREASING LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL BE
MOST NUMEROUS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY...WITH LITTLE IF ANY
RAINFALL OCCURRING OVER THE WESTERN NEW ENGLAND ZONES.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S...AND IT WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY HUMID AS DEWPOINTS INCREASE INTO THE LOW OR MID 60S.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FEATURE MOVING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS IT SLOWLY SLIDES OFF
THE EAST COAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. ON FRIDAY...CONDITIONS
WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT AS DRIER AIR TRIES TO FILTER INTO THE REGION
FROM NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WHICH WILL BE THE RESULT OF THE FLOW
AROUND A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

FROM TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY LIKELY POPS ARE
FORECAST FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY WESTWARD...AND CHANCE POPS FURTHER
EAST. AS THE SYSTEM SLIDES OFF THE EAST COAST...POPS ARE FORECAST TO
DECREASE THURSDAY NIGHT...LOWERING TO ONLY 20 PERCENT ON FRIDAY.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN THE PAST FEW NIGHTS
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE
70S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGHS FRIDAY
IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A TRANQUIL EXTENDED FORECAST IS ANTICIPATED FOR ERN NY AND WRN NEW
ENGLAND WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM ERN QUEBEC...NEW
BRUNSWICK...AND NRN NEW ENGLAND EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...AND LASTING
INTO THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS
AND FAIR WEATHER.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...A REX TYPE BLOCK SETS UP OVER ERN
CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST WITH A CLOSED H500 ANTICYCLONE OVER N-CNTRL
QUEBEC...AND DOWNSTREAM OF JAMES BAY.  A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH SETS
UP OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND JUST SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND.
THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY AND UPPER MID ATLANTIC REGION MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD SHOWERS
NEAR THE CATSKILLS FRIDAY EVENING...BUT MOST OF THE AREA WILL STAY
DRY.  THE BLOCKING RIDGE STRENGTHENS ON SATURDAY WITH THE SFC
ANTICYCLONE NEAR THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE AND NEW BRUNSWICK.  H850
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE +10C TO +12C RANGE WITH THE ONSHORE
FLOW.  LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U60S TO L70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.  WITH
THE ONSHORE FLOW...SOME STRATUS IS POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING BEFORE
BURNING OFF BEFORE NOONTIME.

SATURDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE IN
FROM NEW BRUNSWICK AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  A BROAD CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL LOW FORMS SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA.  OUR FCST AREA WILL BE
SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE DOWNSTREAM CUTOFF AND A BROADER HIGH
AMPLITUDE H500 ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE PLAINS.  THE H500 RIDGE
ACTUALLY BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES
REGION AND SE CANADA.  DRY WX IS EXPECTED BASED ON THE LATEST
ECMWF/GFS/WPC/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...AS THE UPSTREAM RIDGE LOOKS TO
DOMINATE WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS EXPECTED WITH M60S TO L70S FOR HIGHS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND MID TO U70S AND PERHAPS SOME L80S OVER
THE VALLEYS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK /TUESDAY/.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S
WITH SOME SPOTTY U40S OVER THE HIGH PEAKS.  HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY COMFORTABLE WITH SFC DEWPTS GENERALLY IN THE
50S TO L60S.  AN ONSHORE FLOW OF MARITIME AIR WILL IMPACT THE REGION
WITH THE SFC HIGH SITUATED TO THE NORTH AND EAST....AND SOME MORNING
STRATUS IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY.  A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY KICK OFF A FEW
SPRINKLES OR ISOLD SHOWERS OVER THE SRN DACKS BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT OVERALL FAIR AND DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO DOMINATE INTO THE
MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED OFFSHORE...AND A WEAK WARM FRONT IS
APPROACHING THE REGION THIS MORNING. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH
A SFC WAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM
THE WEST TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR LEVELS THIS
MORNING WITH SOME LOW STRATUS FORMING WITH THE INCREASING LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. KPSF HAS THE BEST CHANCE FOR
IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH SOME RADIATIONAL MIST OR FOG FORMING...AND
THEN STRATUS. THE LOW-LEVEL STRATUS IS FORECASTED IN THE 1.5-2.5
KFT AGL RANGE AT KGFL/KALB/KPOU BTWN 09Z-12Z...AND SHOULD BURN OFF
SHORTLY THEREAFTER. KPSF MAY HAVE IT LINGER UNTIL 15Z. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN THEREAFTER WITH SCT-BKN CUMULUS 4-5 KFT AGL
AND MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AROUND. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH A
MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT WILL BE AFTER
22Z TODAY. VCSH GROUPS WERE PLACED IN THE FCST AT ALL THE TAF
SITES BTWN 22Z TO 00Z/THU.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM THIS MORNING...AND THEN INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 4-8 KTS. THEY WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WED NT - THU NT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRI-SUN: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A SLOW
MOVING AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS  WILL BE TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND WESTERN AND
CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

MINIMUM RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE BETWEEN 45 AND 60 PERCENT
AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE 60S IN MOST AREAS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS OF AROUND
15 MPH. RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS AT THIS TIME.
THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A
SLOW MOVING AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION. THE
HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND WESTERN AND
CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY INCLUDING THE CATSKILLS. UP TO AN INCH OF
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. DUE
TO LOW RIVER LEVELS AND FAIRLY DRY SOIL CONDITIONS...THERE WILL BE
LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM






000
FXUS61 KALY 200903
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
503 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL
BEGIN TO IMPACT OUR REGION TODAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. AS THIS SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES SOUTHEAST...IT WILL
KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
REGION THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS THE WEAK SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES SLIDES SLOWLY SOUTHEAST...
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TODAY...WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS SLOWLY
INCREASING LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL BE
MOST NUMEROUS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY...WITH LITTLE IF ANY
RAINFALL OCCURRING OVER THE WESTERN NEW ENGLAND ZONES.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S...AND IT WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY HUMID AS DEWPOINTS INCREASE INTO THE LOW OR MID 60S.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FEATURE MOVING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS IT SLOWLY SLIDES OFF
THE EAST COAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. ON FRIDAY...CONDITIONS
WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT AS DRIER AIR TRIES TO FILTER INTO THE REGION
FROM NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WHICH WILL BE THE RESULT OF THE FLOW
AROUND A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

FROM TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY LIKELY POPS ARE
FORECAST FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY WESTWARD...AND CHANCE POPS FURTHER
EAST. AS THE SYSTEM SLIDES OFF THE EAST COAST...POPS ARE FORECAST TO
DECREASE THURSDAY NIGHT...LOWERING TO ONLY 20 PERCENT ON FRIDAY.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN THE PAST FEW NIGHTS
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE
70S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGHS FRIDAY
IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A TRANQUIL EXTENDED FORECAST IS ANTICIPATED FOR ERN NY AND WRN NEW
ENGLAND WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM ERN QUEBEC...NEW
BRUNSWICK...AND NRN NEW ENGLAND EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...AND LASTING
INTO THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS
AND FAIR WEATHER.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...A REX TYPE BLOCK SETS UP OVER ERN
CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST WITH A CLOSED H500 ANTICYCLONE OVER N-CNTRL
QUEBEC...AND DOWNSTREAM OF JAMES BAY.  A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH SETS
UP OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND JUST SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND.
THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY AND UPPER MID ATLANTIC REGION MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD SHOWERS
NEAR THE CATSKILLS FRIDAY EVENING...BUT MOST OF THE AREA WILL STAY
DRY.  THE BLOCKING RIDGE STRENGTHENS ON SATURDAY WITH THE SFC
ANTICYCLONE NEAR THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE AND NEW BRUNSWICK.  H850
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE +10C TO +12C RANGE WITH THE ONSHORE
FLOW.  LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U60S TO L70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.  WITH
THE ONSHORE FLOW...SOME STRATUS IS POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING BEFORE
BURNING OFF BEFORE NOONTIME.

SATURDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE IN
FROM NEW BRUNSWICK AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  A BROAD CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL LOW FORMS SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA.  OUR FCST AREA WILL BE
SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE DOWNSTREAM CUTOFF AND A BROADER HIGH
AMPLITUDE H500 ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE PLAINS.  THE H500 RIDGE
ACTUALLY BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES
REGION AND SE CANADA.  DRY WX IS EXPECTED BASED ON THE LATEST
ECMWF/GFS/WPC/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...AS THE UPSTREAM RIDGE LOOKS TO
DOMINATE WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS EXPECTED WITH M60S TO L70S FOR HIGHS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND MID TO U70S AND PERHAPS SOME L80S OVER
THE VALLEYS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK /TUESDAY/.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S
WITH SOME SPOTTY U40S OVER THE HIGH PEAKS.  HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY COMFORTABLE WITH SFC DEWPTS GENERALLY IN THE
50S TO L60S.  AN ONSHORE FLOW OF MARITIME AIR WILL IMPACT THE REGION
WITH THE SFC HIGH SITUATED TO THE NORTH AND EAST....AND SOME MORNING
STRATUS IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY.  A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY KICK OFF A FEW
SPRINKLES OR ISOLD SHOWERS OVER THE SRN DACKS BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT OVERALL FAIR AND DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO DOMINATE INTO THE
MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED OFFSHORE...AND A WEAK WARM FRONT IS
APPROACHING THE REGION THIS MORNING. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH
A SFC WAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM
THE WEST TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR LEVELS THIS
MORNING WITH SOME LOW STRATUS FORMING WITH THE INCREASING LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. KPSF HAS THE BEST CHANCE FOR
IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH SOME RADIATIONAL MIST OR FOG FORMING...AND
THEN STRATUS. THE LOW-LEVEL STRATUS IS FORECASTED IN THE 1.5-2.5
KFT AGL RANGE AT KGFL/KALB/KPOU BTWN 09Z-12Z...AND SHOULD BURN OFF
SHORTLY THEREAFTER. KPSF MAY HAVE IT LINGER UNTIL 15Z. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN THEREAFTER WITH SCT-BKN CUMULUS 4-5 KFT AGL
AND MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AROUND. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH A
MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT WILL BE AFTER
22Z TODAY. VCSH GROUPS WERE PLACED IN THE FCST AT ALL THE TAF
SITES BTWN 22Z TO 00Z/THU.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM THIS MORNING...AND THEN INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 4-8 KTS. THEY WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WED NT - THU NT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRI-SUN: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A SLOW
MOVING AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS  WILL BE TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND WESTERN AND
CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

MINIMUM RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE BETWEEN 45 AND 60 PERCENT
AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE 60S IN MOST AREAS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS OF AROUND
15 MPH. RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS AT THIS TIME.
THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A
SLOW MOVING AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION. THE
HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND WESTERN AND
CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY INCLUDING THE CATSKILLS. UP TO AN INCH OF
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. DUE
TO LOW RIVER LEVELS AND FAIRLY DRY SOIL CONDITIONS...THERE WILL BE
LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM






000
FXUS61 KALY 200903
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
503 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL
BEGIN TO IMPACT OUR REGION TODAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. AS THIS SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES SOUTHEAST...IT WILL
KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
REGION THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS THE WEAK SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES SLIDES SLOWLY SOUTHEAST...
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TODAY...WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS SLOWLY
INCREASING LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL BE
MOST NUMEROUS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY...WITH LITTLE IF ANY
RAINFALL OCCURRING OVER THE WESTERN NEW ENGLAND ZONES.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S...AND IT WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY HUMID AS DEWPOINTS INCREASE INTO THE LOW OR MID 60S.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FEATURE MOVING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS IT SLOWLY SLIDES OFF
THE EAST COAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. ON FRIDAY...CONDITIONS
WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT AS DRIER AIR TRIES TO FILTER INTO THE REGION
FROM NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WHICH WILL BE THE RESULT OF THE FLOW
AROUND A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

FROM TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY LIKELY POPS ARE
FORECAST FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY WESTWARD...AND CHANCE POPS FURTHER
EAST. AS THE SYSTEM SLIDES OFF THE EAST COAST...POPS ARE FORECAST TO
DECREASE THURSDAY NIGHT...LOWERING TO ONLY 20 PERCENT ON FRIDAY.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN THE PAST FEW NIGHTS
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE
70S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGHS FRIDAY
IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A TRANQUIL EXTENDED FORECAST IS ANTICIPATED FOR ERN NY AND WRN NEW
ENGLAND WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM ERN QUEBEC...NEW
BRUNSWICK...AND NRN NEW ENGLAND EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...AND LASTING
INTO THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS
AND FAIR WEATHER.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...A REX TYPE BLOCK SETS UP OVER ERN
CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST WITH A CLOSED H500 ANTICYCLONE OVER N-CNTRL
QUEBEC...AND DOWNSTREAM OF JAMES BAY.  A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH SETS
UP OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND JUST SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND.
THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY AND UPPER MID ATLANTIC REGION MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD SHOWERS
NEAR THE CATSKILLS FRIDAY EVENING...BUT MOST OF THE AREA WILL STAY
DRY.  THE BLOCKING RIDGE STRENGTHENS ON SATURDAY WITH THE SFC
ANTICYCLONE NEAR THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE AND NEW BRUNSWICK.  H850
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE +10C TO +12C RANGE WITH THE ONSHORE
FLOW.  LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U60S TO L70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.  WITH
THE ONSHORE FLOW...SOME STRATUS IS POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING BEFORE
BURNING OFF BEFORE NOONTIME.

SATURDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE IN
FROM NEW BRUNSWICK AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  A BROAD CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL LOW FORMS SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA.  OUR FCST AREA WILL BE
SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE DOWNSTREAM CUTOFF AND A BROADER HIGH
AMPLITUDE H500 ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE PLAINS.  THE H500 RIDGE
ACTUALLY BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES
REGION AND SE CANADA.  DRY WX IS EXPECTED BASED ON THE LATEST
ECMWF/GFS/WPC/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...AS THE UPSTREAM RIDGE LOOKS TO
DOMINATE WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS EXPECTED WITH M60S TO L70S FOR HIGHS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND MID TO U70S AND PERHAPS SOME L80S OVER
THE VALLEYS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK /TUESDAY/.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S
WITH SOME SPOTTY U40S OVER THE HIGH PEAKS.  HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY COMFORTABLE WITH SFC DEWPTS GENERALLY IN THE
50S TO L60S.  AN ONSHORE FLOW OF MARITIME AIR WILL IMPACT THE REGION
WITH THE SFC HIGH SITUATED TO THE NORTH AND EAST....AND SOME MORNING
STRATUS IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY.  A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY KICK OFF A FEW
SPRINKLES OR ISOLD SHOWERS OVER THE SRN DACKS BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT OVERALL FAIR AND DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO DOMINATE INTO THE
MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED OFFSHORE...AND A WEAK WARM FRONT IS
APPROACHING THE REGION THIS MORNING. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH
A SFC WAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM
THE WEST TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR LEVELS THIS
MORNING WITH SOME LOW STRATUS FORMING WITH THE INCREASING LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. KPSF HAS THE BEST CHANCE FOR
IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH SOME RADIATIONAL MIST OR FOG FORMING...AND
THEN STRATUS. THE LOW-LEVEL STRATUS IS FORECASTED IN THE 1.5-2.5
KFT AGL RANGE AT KGFL/KALB/KPOU BTWN 09Z-12Z...AND SHOULD BURN OFF
SHORTLY THEREAFTER. KPSF MAY HAVE IT LINGER UNTIL 15Z. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN THEREAFTER WITH SCT-BKN CUMULUS 4-5 KFT AGL
AND MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AROUND. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH A
MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT WILL BE AFTER
22Z TODAY. VCSH GROUPS WERE PLACED IN THE FCST AT ALL THE TAF
SITES BTWN 22Z TO 00Z/THU.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM THIS MORNING...AND THEN INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 4-8 KTS. THEY WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WED NT - THU NT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRI-SUN: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A SLOW
MOVING AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS  WILL BE TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND WESTERN AND
CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

MINIMUM RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE BETWEEN 45 AND 60 PERCENT
AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE 60S IN MOST AREAS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS OF AROUND
15 MPH. RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS AT THIS TIME.
THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A
SLOW MOVING AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION. THE
HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND WESTERN AND
CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY INCLUDING THE CATSKILLS. UP TO AN INCH OF
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. DUE
TO LOW RIVER LEVELS AND FAIRLY DRY SOIL CONDITIONS...THERE WILL BE
LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM






000
FXUS61 KBOX 200751
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
351 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER...EXCEPT MAYBE A SHOWER IN THE WEST...WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. PATTERN STARTS TO BECOME A BIT MORE UNSETTLED EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SOME LEFTOVER BKN-OVC CI CONTINUES TO MOVE E OF THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING...BUT NOT BEFORE SLOWING THE OVERNIGHT RADIATIONAL
COOLING PROCESS. THEREFORE...ALTHOUGH A FEW MORE HOURS OF
POTENTIAL COOLING REMAIN...MINS ARE LIKELY TO BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER ACROSS THE BOARD THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS. SO A COOL...BUT NOT
QUITE AS COOL START THIS MORNING AS TUE MORNING.

OTHERWISE TODAY...A TALE OF 3 LOW PRES CENTERS...TWO ALOFT AND ONE
WELL TO THE SE OF SRN NEW ENGLAND. IN BETWEEN INVERTED RIDGE OF
HIGH PRES IS LIKELY TO REMAIN IN PLACE...ASSISTED BY SUBSIDENCE
BETWEEN THESE FEATURES. ALTHOUGH A WARM FRONT /ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WRN UPPER LVL CUTOFF SLIDING E/ WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE W IT
IS UNLIKELY TO HAVE MUCH OF AN EFFECT ON SRN NEW ENGLAND. THIS IS
THANKS TO THE SUBSIDENCE AND AN ALREADY DRY COLUMN ACROSS THE
REGION. HOWEVER...DUE NOTE SOME MOISTURE LOADING OF THE COLUMN
FROM THE TOP-DOWN SO WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SLOWLY BUILDING CLOUD
COVER ESPECIALLY FROM THE WORCESTER HILLS-W.

TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO BE BIT WARMER TODAY AS WELL THANKS TO A
SLIGHTLY WARMER START AND H85 TEMPS APPROACHING +14C.
THEREFORE...EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD LOW-MID 80S THAN YESTERDAY FOR
HIGHS. NEAR SHORE...SEA BREEZES LIKELY HOLD TEMPS MAINLY IN THE
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...
THE APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND GRADUALLY OPENING UPPER LVL
CUTOFF...COMBINED WITH GRADUAL MOISTURE LOADING OF THE COLUMN IS
LIKELY TO LEAD TO MORE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION THAN PREVIOUS
NIGHTS. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION A SHOWER IS ABLE TO SLIDE ACROSS
THE W...BUT BOTH JET AND VORTICITY RELATED DYNAMICS ARE QUITE
WEAK AND OVERALL COLUMN MOISTURE REMAINS FAIRLY LOW UNTIL THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN A MOSTLY DRY
FORECAST EXCEPT THE EXTREME WRN FRINGES OF THE BOX CWA THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...GIVEN THE INCREASED MOISTURE /CLOUD
COVER/ AND WARMER EVENING TEMPERATURES EXPECT THAT OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS IN SPITE OF THE NEAR CALM FLOW
ONCE AGAIN. MORE WIDESPREAD MID 50S WITH EVEN SOME NORMAL HEAT
ISLANDS HOLDING IN THE LOW-MID 60S ARE EXPECTED.

THU...
INVERTED RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE...AND MAINLY E-SE FLOW EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION. THE MARINE INFLUENCE IS LIKELY TO STAVE OFF
APPROACHING WARM FRONT AS IT/S ATTENDANT UPPER LVL CUTOFF
DIMINISHES TO AN OPEN WAVE WITH CUTOFF HIGH PRES TO THE N. UPPER
LVL AND LOW LVL JETS ARE WEAK AND WITH OVERALL VORTICITY
DECREASING...THEREFORE DYNAMIC FORCING IS RELATIVELY WEAK EVEN AS
OVERALL COLUMN MOISTURE INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY /PWATS APPROACH
1.75 INCHES/. ALSO...WITH MARINE FLOW AND WARM FRONT TRAPPED TO
THE W...IT/S UNLIKELY THAT THERE WILL BE MUCH DESTABILIZATION
THROUGH THE DAY. GIVEN ALL OF THIS...THE THREAT FOR SHOWERY
ACTIVITY REMAINS FAIRLY LOW. WILL FOCUS ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS W OF
THE CT VALLEY...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO THE WORCESTER HILLS.
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD DIVE TO THE SW OF THE REGION WHERE
INSTABILITY AXIS RESIDES. HAVE KEPT THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST
WITH THIS UPDATE DUE TO THE MARINE FLOW AND MODEST LAPSE RATES.
THE ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND MARINE FLOW ARE ALSO LIKELY TO KEEP
HIGH TEMPS COOLER THAN NORMAL /MAINLY MID 70S/ DURING THE DAY THU.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
* UNCERTAINTY INCREASES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT

RATHER UNIQUE AND STABLE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN
LATE THIS WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND. 20/00Z GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...THEN MORE DIFFERENCES APPEAR EARLY
NEXT WEEK. WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR A CONSENSUS BLEND TO SMOOTH OVER
THE MORE MINOR DIFFERENCES.

HIGH PRESSURE IN QUEBEC WILL KEEP THINGS RELATIVELY DRY ACROSS MOST
OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
THURSDAY NIGHT IF SOME MOVING PARTS COME TOGETHER. MOISTURE IS THE
MAIN LIMITING FACTOR...WITH INSTABILITY A CLOSE SECOND ONCE THE SUN
SETS.

THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL SINK SOUTH THROUGH THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...EVENTUALLY DROPPING SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND
RETURNING US TO A MORE WESTERLY FLOW. A LOW PRESSURE IN ONTARIO MAY
EVENTUALLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO QUEBEC...SWINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SOMETIME TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. DEPENDING ON
AVAILABLE MOISTURE...THIS FRONT MAY INITIATE A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THU. ONLY CAVEAT WILL BE SOME SPOTTY GROUND FOG
AT TYPICALLY PRONE AIRPORTS BOTH THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLY MAINLY W OF AN IJD-ORH-AFN LINE
DURING THE DAY ON THU.

FLOW SHIFTS FROM THE SW TO THE E THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...ASSISTED
BY SEA BREEZES. LIGHT AND VRB FLOW RETURNS AGAIN TONIGHT...WITH E
FLOW AGAIN ON THU.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY
MVFR/IFR FOG EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THE MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER CONTINUES. WINDS REMAIN MAINLY E
TO SE WITH A FEW GUSTS AROUND 15 KT POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
OUTER EDGE OF THE S AND SE WATERS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION.
LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY OVERNIGHT FOG LIMITING VISIBILITIES. SEAS
MAY INCREASE ON THE OUTER WATERS THIS WEEKEND AS AN OCEAN STORM
PASSES WELL EAST OF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WATERS. WNA WAVE
GUIDANCE LOOKS TO BE TOO HIGH BASED ON EXPECTED WINDS...LOWERED THIS
GUIDANCE BY 20 PERCENT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 200751
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
351 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER...EXCEPT MAYBE A SHOWER IN THE WEST...WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. PATTERN STARTS TO BECOME A BIT MORE UNSETTLED EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SOME LEFTOVER BKN-OVC CI CONTINUES TO MOVE E OF THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING...BUT NOT BEFORE SLOWING THE OVERNIGHT RADIATIONAL
COOLING PROCESS. THEREFORE...ALTHOUGH A FEW MORE HOURS OF
POTENTIAL COOLING REMAIN...MINS ARE LIKELY TO BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER ACROSS THE BOARD THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS. SO A COOL...BUT NOT
QUITE AS COOL START THIS MORNING AS TUE MORNING.

OTHERWISE TODAY...A TALE OF 3 LOW PRES CENTERS...TWO ALOFT AND ONE
WELL TO THE SE OF SRN NEW ENGLAND. IN BETWEEN INVERTED RIDGE OF
HIGH PRES IS LIKELY TO REMAIN IN PLACE...ASSISTED BY SUBSIDENCE
BETWEEN THESE FEATURES. ALTHOUGH A WARM FRONT /ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WRN UPPER LVL CUTOFF SLIDING E/ WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE W IT
IS UNLIKELY TO HAVE MUCH OF AN EFFECT ON SRN NEW ENGLAND. THIS IS
THANKS TO THE SUBSIDENCE AND AN ALREADY DRY COLUMN ACROSS THE
REGION. HOWEVER...DUE NOTE SOME MOISTURE LOADING OF THE COLUMN
FROM THE TOP-DOWN SO WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SLOWLY BUILDING CLOUD
COVER ESPECIALLY FROM THE WORCESTER HILLS-W.

TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO BE BIT WARMER TODAY AS WELL THANKS TO A
SLIGHTLY WARMER START AND H85 TEMPS APPROACHING +14C.
THEREFORE...EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD LOW-MID 80S THAN YESTERDAY FOR
HIGHS. NEAR SHORE...SEA BREEZES LIKELY HOLD TEMPS MAINLY IN THE
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...
THE APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND GRADUALLY OPENING UPPER LVL
CUTOFF...COMBINED WITH GRADUAL MOISTURE LOADING OF THE COLUMN IS
LIKELY TO LEAD TO MORE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION THAN PREVIOUS
NIGHTS. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION A SHOWER IS ABLE TO SLIDE ACROSS
THE W...BUT BOTH JET AND VORTICITY RELATED DYNAMICS ARE QUITE
WEAK AND OVERALL COLUMN MOISTURE REMAINS FAIRLY LOW UNTIL THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN A MOSTLY DRY
FORECAST EXCEPT THE EXTREME WRN FRINGES OF THE BOX CWA THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...GIVEN THE INCREASED MOISTURE /CLOUD
COVER/ AND WARMER EVENING TEMPERATURES EXPECT THAT OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS IN SPITE OF THE NEAR CALM FLOW
ONCE AGAIN. MORE WIDESPREAD MID 50S WITH EVEN SOME NORMAL HEAT
ISLANDS HOLDING IN THE LOW-MID 60S ARE EXPECTED.

THU...
INVERTED RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE...AND MAINLY E-SE FLOW EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION. THE MARINE INFLUENCE IS LIKELY TO STAVE OFF
APPROACHING WARM FRONT AS IT/S ATTENDANT UPPER LVL CUTOFF
DIMINISHES TO AN OPEN WAVE WITH CUTOFF HIGH PRES TO THE N. UPPER
LVL AND LOW LVL JETS ARE WEAK AND WITH OVERALL VORTICITY
DECREASING...THEREFORE DYNAMIC FORCING IS RELATIVELY WEAK EVEN AS
OVERALL COLUMN MOISTURE INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY /PWATS APPROACH
1.75 INCHES/. ALSO...WITH MARINE FLOW AND WARM FRONT TRAPPED TO
THE W...IT/S UNLIKELY THAT THERE WILL BE MUCH DESTABILIZATION
THROUGH THE DAY. GIVEN ALL OF THIS...THE THREAT FOR SHOWERY
ACTIVITY REMAINS FAIRLY LOW. WILL FOCUS ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS W OF
THE CT VALLEY...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO THE WORCESTER HILLS.
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD DIVE TO THE SW OF THE REGION WHERE
INSTABILITY AXIS RESIDES. HAVE KEPT THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST
WITH THIS UPDATE DUE TO THE MARINE FLOW AND MODEST LAPSE RATES.
THE ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND MARINE FLOW ARE ALSO LIKELY TO KEEP
HIGH TEMPS COOLER THAN NORMAL /MAINLY MID 70S/ DURING THE DAY THU.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
* UNCERTAINTY INCREASES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT

RATHER UNIQUE AND STABLE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN
LATE THIS WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND. 20/00Z GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...THEN MORE DIFFERENCES APPEAR EARLY
NEXT WEEK. WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR A CONSENSUS BLEND TO SMOOTH OVER
THE MORE MINOR DIFFERENCES.

HIGH PRESSURE IN QUEBEC WILL KEEP THINGS RELATIVELY DRY ACROSS MOST
OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
THURSDAY NIGHT IF SOME MOVING PARTS COME TOGETHER. MOISTURE IS THE
MAIN LIMITING FACTOR...WITH INSTABILITY A CLOSE SECOND ONCE THE SUN
SETS.

THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL SINK SOUTH THROUGH THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...EVENTUALLY DROPPING SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND
RETURNING US TO A MORE WESTERLY FLOW. A LOW PRESSURE IN ONTARIO MAY
EVENTUALLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO QUEBEC...SWINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SOMETIME TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. DEPENDING ON
AVAILABLE MOISTURE...THIS FRONT MAY INITIATE A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THU. ONLY CAVEAT WILL BE SOME SPOTTY GROUND FOG
AT TYPICALLY PRONE AIRPORTS BOTH THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLY MAINLY W OF AN IJD-ORH-AFN LINE
DURING THE DAY ON THU.

FLOW SHIFTS FROM THE SW TO THE E THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...ASSISTED
BY SEA BREEZES. LIGHT AND VRB FLOW RETURNS AGAIN TONIGHT...WITH E
FLOW AGAIN ON THU.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY
MVFR/IFR FOG EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THE MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER CONTINUES. WINDS REMAIN MAINLY E
TO SE WITH A FEW GUSTS AROUND 15 KT POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
OUTER EDGE OF THE S AND SE WATERS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION.
LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY OVERNIGHT FOG LIMITING VISIBILITIES. SEAS
MAY INCREASE ON THE OUTER WATERS THIS WEEKEND AS AN OCEAN STORM
PASSES WELL EAST OF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WATERS. WNA WAVE
GUIDANCE LOOKS TO BE TOO HIGH BASED ON EXPECTED WINDS...LOWERED THIS
GUIDANCE BY 20 PERCENT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY



000
FXUS61 KOKX 200743
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
343 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ANCHORED OVER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH FOR FRIDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR THE
WEEKEND...THEN SLOWLY SLIDES OFFSHORE EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BROAD AREA OF HI PRES FROM QUEBEC INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND AT 7Z. A
BREAK IN THE MID CLOUDS WILL ALLOW FOR PATCHY FOG THRU
SUNRISE...MAINLY IN THE OUTLYING AREAS.

DEVELOPING SE FLOW TODAY. WITH SUBSIDENCE HANGING
ON...PARTICULARLY ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN AREAS...MOST OF THE CWA
SHOULD BE PTCLDY AND DRY. ACROSS THE FAR WRN/NWRN FRINGE...FALLING
HEIGHTS ALONG WITH UP TO 1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE PER THE NAM COULD
SPRING SOME SHRA/TSTMS. MAIN THREAT STILL W OF THE CWA WITH THE
EMBEDDED SHRTWV NOT ARRIVING TIL ABOUT 00Z.

TEMPS RIGHT ABOUT OR JUST BLW CLIMO. FCST IS CLOSE TO THE GMOS25.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
INSTABILITY WANES WITH CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW ALONG WITH A LOSS OF
SFC HEATING. THEREFORE THE SHRTWV IS EXPECTED TO HAVE A MINIMAL
EFFECT ATTM AND PRODUCE ONLY A FEW SHRA AS IT TRAVERSES THE CWA
THIS EVE/TNGT. ANY TSTMS WOULD NEED TO BE ELEVATED DUE TO THE
STABLE MARINE LAYER. AS A RESULT...HAVE NOT INCLUDED TSTMS IN THE
FCST FOR TNGT.

00Z MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE UPR LOW SPINNING OVER THE UP OF MI
WILL DROP HEIGHTS ON THU AND ATTEMPT TO TRIGGER SHRA OR TSTMS.
INSTABILITY WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR...WITH A MARINE STRATUS
DECK LIKELY PENETRATING ALMOST THE ENTIRE CWA. INCLUDED TSTMS ONLY
ON THE WRN AND NRN PERIPHERY OF THE CWA...WITH ONLY SHRA
ELSEWHERE. WHERE THE INSTABILITY DOES MATERIALIZE...THE SETUP IS
RIPE FOR MULTICELLULAR HVY RAINERS IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND PW/S
ABOUT 125-150 PERCENT OF NORMAL.

TEMPS COOLER DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH IN PLACE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH WEAK CUT OFF
UPPER LOW WEAKENING OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA
WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO THE NORTHEAST. UPPER TROUGH WILL SET OFF SOME
SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY FOR WESTERN
SECTIONS. SOME SURFACE BASED CAPE...A FEW HUNDRED TO JUST UNDER 1000
J/KG DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL YOU LOOK AT...WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH A LACK OF ANY
STRONG LIFTING MECHANISM...THE CHANCE FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DIMINISH AS THE SUN SETS.

OMEGA BLOCK IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH DRY CONDITIONS IN STORE. AN EXTENDED NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
MEAN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR FOR THE
WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S ON SATURDAY...AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER SUNDAY. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...EVEN IN THE NYC METRO REGION.

THE HIGH PUSHES OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
THE RETURN FLOW WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK UP TO MORE NORMAL
VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...BUT CONDITIONS
SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA.

MAINLY VFR EARLY THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT PATCHY
STRATUS AND FOG OUTSIDE OF NYC METRO FOR A FEW HOURS.

THEN EXPECT FEW TO SCT CU TODAY. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
IS POSSIBLE WELL NORTH AND WEST OF NYC THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER ANY
ACTIVITY WOULD BE TOO ISOLATED TO INCLUDE IN TERMINAL FORECASTS.

LIGHT WINDS BECOME SOUTHEAST/SOUTH AT 6 TO 11 KTS THIS AFTERNOON MOST
TERMINALS.

WINDS LIGHTEN BY EVENING.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS REMAIN SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST TODAY...WITH
SPEEDS INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON TO AROUND 10 KTS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: A EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND OFF THE SOUND WILL
EVENTUALLY GIVE WAY TO SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS. TIMING OF WIND SHIFT
MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR TWO.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS REMAIN SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST TODAY...WITH
SPEEDS INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON TO AROUND 10 KTS.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: STRATUS IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 1 AND 3 KFT BEFORE
12Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: STRATUS IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 1 AND 3 KFT BEFORE
12Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THU THROUGH SUN...
.TONIGHT...SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE ACROSS NYC METRO AND LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY TERMINALS. AS SUCH...SUB VFR POSSIBLE.
.FRI-SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS THRU THU. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED
FRI THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. A PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
WILL ALLOW WAVES TO BUILD TO 5 FT FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
OCEAN ZONE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY. GUSTS ON
SATURDAY WILL REACH THE LOWER 20 KT RANGE...AND SLIGHTLY LESS ON
SUNDAY. GUSTS AT OR JUST ABOVE 25 KT ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE
WEEKEND...BUT DOES NOT LOOK LIKELY AS OF NOW. GUSTS DIMINISH INTO
THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FEW TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE THU...MAINLY ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY
INTO NJ AWAY FROM THE COAST. ANY TSTMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE LOCALLY HVY RAIN...HOWEVER BASIN AVE PCPN OF LESS THAN 1/4
INCH IS EXPECTED ATTM. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MINOR POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING FROM ANY OF THIS TSTM ACTIVITY.

NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/JP
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...JMC/JP
HYDROLOGY...JMC/JP







000
FXUS61 KOKX 200743
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
343 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ANCHORED OVER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH FOR FRIDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR THE
WEEKEND...THEN SLOWLY SLIDES OFFSHORE EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BROAD AREA OF HI PRES FROM QUEBEC INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND AT 7Z. A
BREAK IN THE MID CLOUDS WILL ALLOW FOR PATCHY FOG THRU
SUNRISE...MAINLY IN THE OUTLYING AREAS.

DEVELOPING SE FLOW TODAY. WITH SUBSIDENCE HANGING
ON...PARTICULARLY ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN AREAS...MOST OF THE CWA
SHOULD BE PTCLDY AND DRY. ACROSS THE FAR WRN/NWRN FRINGE...FALLING
HEIGHTS ALONG WITH UP TO 1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE PER THE NAM COULD
SPRING SOME SHRA/TSTMS. MAIN THREAT STILL W OF THE CWA WITH THE
EMBEDDED SHRTWV NOT ARRIVING TIL ABOUT 00Z.

TEMPS RIGHT ABOUT OR JUST BLW CLIMO. FCST IS CLOSE TO THE GMOS25.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
INSTABILITY WANES WITH CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW ALONG WITH A LOSS OF
SFC HEATING. THEREFORE THE SHRTWV IS EXPECTED TO HAVE A MINIMAL
EFFECT ATTM AND PRODUCE ONLY A FEW SHRA AS IT TRAVERSES THE CWA
THIS EVE/TNGT. ANY TSTMS WOULD NEED TO BE ELEVATED DUE TO THE
STABLE MARINE LAYER. AS A RESULT...HAVE NOT INCLUDED TSTMS IN THE
FCST FOR TNGT.

00Z MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE UPR LOW SPINNING OVER THE UP OF MI
WILL DROP HEIGHTS ON THU AND ATTEMPT TO TRIGGER SHRA OR TSTMS.
INSTABILITY WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR...WITH A MARINE STRATUS
DECK LIKELY PENETRATING ALMOST THE ENTIRE CWA. INCLUDED TSTMS ONLY
ON THE WRN AND NRN PERIPHERY OF THE CWA...WITH ONLY SHRA
ELSEWHERE. WHERE THE INSTABILITY DOES MATERIALIZE...THE SETUP IS
RIPE FOR MULTICELLULAR HVY RAINERS IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND PW/S
ABOUT 125-150 PERCENT OF NORMAL.

TEMPS COOLER DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH IN PLACE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH WEAK CUT OFF
UPPER LOW WEAKENING OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA
WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO THE NORTHEAST. UPPER TROUGH WILL SET OFF SOME
SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY FOR WESTERN
SECTIONS. SOME SURFACE BASED CAPE...A FEW HUNDRED TO JUST UNDER 1000
J/KG DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL YOU LOOK AT...WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH A LACK OF ANY
STRONG LIFTING MECHANISM...THE CHANCE FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DIMINISH AS THE SUN SETS.

OMEGA BLOCK IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH DRY CONDITIONS IN STORE. AN EXTENDED NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
MEAN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR FOR THE
WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S ON SATURDAY...AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER SUNDAY. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...EVEN IN THE NYC METRO REGION.

THE HIGH PUSHES OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
THE RETURN FLOW WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK UP TO MORE NORMAL
VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...BUT CONDITIONS
SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA.

MAINLY VFR EARLY THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT PATCHY
STRATUS AND FOG OUTSIDE OF NYC METRO FOR A FEW HOURS.

THEN EXPECT FEW TO SCT CU TODAY. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
IS POSSIBLE WELL NORTH AND WEST OF NYC THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER ANY
ACTIVITY WOULD BE TOO ISOLATED TO INCLUDE IN TERMINAL FORECASTS.

LIGHT WINDS BECOME SOUTHEAST/SOUTH AT 6 TO 11 KTS THIS AFTERNOON MOST
TERMINALS.

WINDS LIGHTEN BY EVENING.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS REMAIN SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST TODAY...WITH
SPEEDS INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON TO AROUND 10 KTS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: A EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND OFF THE SOUND WILL
EVENTUALLY GIVE WAY TO SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS. TIMING OF WIND SHIFT
MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR TWO.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS REMAIN SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST TODAY...WITH
SPEEDS INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON TO AROUND 10 KTS.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: STRATUS IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 1 AND 3 KFT BEFORE
12Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: STRATUS IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 1 AND 3 KFT BEFORE
12Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THU THROUGH SUN...
.TONIGHT...SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE ACROSS NYC METRO AND LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY TERMINALS. AS SUCH...SUB VFR POSSIBLE.
.FRI-SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS THRU THU. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED
FRI THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. A PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
WILL ALLOW WAVES TO BUILD TO 5 FT FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
OCEAN ZONE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY. GUSTS ON
SATURDAY WILL REACH THE LOWER 20 KT RANGE...AND SLIGHTLY LESS ON
SUNDAY. GUSTS AT OR JUST ABOVE 25 KT ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE
WEEKEND...BUT DOES NOT LOOK LIKELY AS OF NOW. GUSTS DIMINISH INTO
THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FEW TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE THU...MAINLY ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY
INTO NJ AWAY FROM THE COAST. ANY TSTMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE LOCALLY HVY RAIN...HOWEVER BASIN AVE PCPN OF LESS THAN 1/4
INCH IS EXPECTED ATTM. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MINOR POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING FROM ANY OF THIS TSTM ACTIVITY.

NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/JP
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...JMC/JP
HYDROLOGY...JMC/JP






000
FXUS61 KALY 200559
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
159 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LOOSEN ITS GRIP ACROSS THE REGION AS OUR WEATHER
WILL TURN UNSETTLED FOR THE LATER HALF OF THIS WEEK. A SLOW MOVING
AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT OUR REGION
WEDNESDAY WITH CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. THE BEST CHANCES
FOR WET WEATHER WILL BE ALONG AND WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WESTERN AND
CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY AND CATSKILLS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 930 PM EDT...HIGH CLOUDS HAVE WORKED INTO THE AREA. IFR
11.9U-3.9U INDICATED THAT SOME PATCHES OF STRATUS HAVE FORMED AS
WELL ACROSS CENTRAL NY INTO NORTHERN PA.

DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN RISING A LITTLE...AND WILL DO SO OVERNIGHT. EVEN
WITH ONLY A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY...WE BELIEVE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
NEEDED TO BE RAISED A COUPLE OF DEGREES AND THEREFORE WE DID THAT
WITH THIS UPDATE.

OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR TWEAKING OF THE HOURLY GRIDS INCLUDING THE
CLOUD GRIDS.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 50 NORTH AND WELL EAST OF
THE CAPITAL REGION...TO THE MID AND UPPER 50S OVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA. IT SHOULD REMAIN COMPLETELY DRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD OF WEATHER WILL BE UNDER INCREASING
CLOUD COVER...HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND THE RAISING THE
PROBABILITIES FOR SHOWERS. THE 12Z MODEL SUITE AND ENSEMBLES ARE A
LITTLE HIGHER WITH THE OVERALL QPF FIELD ALONG AND WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER AS PWATS CLIMB 1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.
THE CULPRIT WAS THE UPPER LOW SEEN IN THE H2O VAPOR LOOP OVER THE
U.P. OF MI. AS THIS LOW TRACKS FURTHER EAST...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER
NORTHEAST CANADA STRENGTHENS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SQUEEZE BETWEEN
THIS UPPER LOW AND THE SURFACE RIDGE REATTEMPTING TO BUILD
SOUTHWESTWARD.

AS THE CASE LEADING INTO THIS FORECAST...THE BEST MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND ISENTROPIC LIFT REMAIN ALONG OR WEST OF THE HUDSON
RIVER. AS LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES THROUGH
THURSDAY...FAVORABLE UPSLOPE CONDITIONS FOR THE CATSKILLS AND
DACKS MAY EXPERIENCE ENHANCE RAINFALL. WE WILL PLACE THESE AREAS
INTO LIKELY POPS BEGINNING LATER WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING INTO ALL
OF THURSDAY. QPF AMOUNTS COULD APPROACH ONE INCH BUT FLOOD
CONCERNS ARE LOW AT THIS TIME PER COORDINATION WITH NERFC.

AS FOR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...WHILE LAPSE RATES ARE NOT TOO
CONDUCIVE...THE H850 LI/S /AKA SHOWALTER INDEX/ DROP TO OR JUST
BELOW 0C OVER MOST OF EASTERN NY. THIS WILL WARRANT THE
CONTINUATION WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...MOS GUIDANCE IS RATHER
CLOSE WITH AVERAGE HIGHS INTO THE MID-UPPER 70S AND SOME LOWER 80S
IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY WELL INTO
THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT OUR AREA MIGHT BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN A
CUTOFF LOW TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST...AND UPPER LATITUDE MID LEVEL
RIDGE TO OUR NORTH THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS SCENARIO
MIGHT KEEP OUR AREA DRY WITH ONLY SOME CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME. THE
CANADIAN MODEL DOES BRING SOME SHOWERS INTO OUR REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BUT IS REALLY NOT SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST EUROPEAN
AND GFS EXTENDED MODEL GUIDANCE.

WE HAVE FOLLOWED WPC/S THINKING AND HAVE KEPT OUR AREA RAINFREE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE
SEASONABLE...WITH HIGHS 75-80 IN THE VALLEYS...70-75 HIGHER TERRAIN
EACH DAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOKS TO BE MAINLY IN THE 50S...UPPER 50S
LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED OFFSHORE...AND A WEAK WARM FRONT IS
APPROACHING THE REGION THIS MORNING. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH
A SFC WAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM
THE WEST TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR LEVELS THIS
MORNING WITH SOME LOW STRATUS FORMING WITH THE INCREASING LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. KPSF HAS THE BEST CHANCE FOR
IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH SOME RADIATIONAL MIST OR FOG FORMING...AND
THEN STRATUS. THE LOW-LEVEL STRATUS IS FORECASTED IN THE 1.5-2.5
KFT AGL RANGE AT KGFL/KALB/KPOU BTWN 09Z-12Z...AND SHOULD BURN OFF
SHORTLY THEREAFTER. KPSF MAY HAVE IT LINGER UNTIL 15Z. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN THEREAFTER WITH SCT-BKN CUMULUS 4-5 KFT AGL
AND MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AROUND. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH A
MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT WILL BE AFTER
22Z TODAY. VCSH GROUPS WERE PLACED IN THE FCST AT ALL THE TAF
SITES BTWN 22Z TO 00Z/THU.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM THIS MORNING...AND THEN INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 4-8 KTS. THEY WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WED NT - THU NT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRI-SUN: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ANOTHER DRY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. THE
WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A SLOW
MOVING AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND WESTERN
AND CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVER TOWARD 90 AND NEAR 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT. MINIMUM VALUES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
50S PERCENTILE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS AT THIS TIME.
THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A
SLOW MOVING AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION. THE
HIGH QPF AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND WESTERN
AND CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY INCLUDING THE CATSKILLS. MODEL QPF HAS
INCREASE WITH UP TO ONE INCH BASIN AVERAGE WEST OF THE HUDSON
RIVER. DUE TO LOW RIVER LEVELS AT THE PRESENT TIME...MOST OF THIS
RAIN SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN RIVER BANKS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/BGM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM







000
FXUS61 KALY 200559
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
159 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LOOSEN ITS GRIP ACROSS THE REGION AS OUR WEATHER
WILL TURN UNSETTLED FOR THE LATER HALF OF THIS WEEK. A SLOW MOVING
AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT OUR REGION
WEDNESDAY WITH CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. THE BEST CHANCES
FOR WET WEATHER WILL BE ALONG AND WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WESTERN AND
CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY AND CATSKILLS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 930 PM EDT...HIGH CLOUDS HAVE WORKED INTO THE AREA. IFR
11.9U-3.9U INDICATED THAT SOME PATCHES OF STRATUS HAVE FORMED AS
WELL ACROSS CENTRAL NY INTO NORTHERN PA.

DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN RISING A LITTLE...AND WILL DO SO OVERNIGHT. EVEN
WITH ONLY A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY...WE BELIEVE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
NEEDED TO BE RAISED A COUPLE OF DEGREES AND THEREFORE WE DID THAT
WITH THIS UPDATE.

OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR TWEAKING OF THE HOURLY GRIDS INCLUDING THE
CLOUD GRIDS.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 50 NORTH AND WELL EAST OF
THE CAPITAL REGION...TO THE MID AND UPPER 50S OVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA. IT SHOULD REMAIN COMPLETELY DRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD OF WEATHER WILL BE UNDER INCREASING
CLOUD COVER...HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND THE RAISING THE
PROBABILITIES FOR SHOWERS. THE 12Z MODEL SUITE AND ENSEMBLES ARE A
LITTLE HIGHER WITH THE OVERALL QPF FIELD ALONG AND WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER AS PWATS CLIMB 1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.
THE CULPRIT WAS THE UPPER LOW SEEN IN THE H2O VAPOR LOOP OVER THE
U.P. OF MI. AS THIS LOW TRACKS FURTHER EAST...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER
NORTHEAST CANADA STRENGTHENS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SQUEEZE BETWEEN
THIS UPPER LOW AND THE SURFACE RIDGE REATTEMPTING TO BUILD
SOUTHWESTWARD.

AS THE CASE LEADING INTO THIS FORECAST...THE BEST MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND ISENTROPIC LIFT REMAIN ALONG OR WEST OF THE HUDSON
RIVER. AS LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES THROUGH
THURSDAY...FAVORABLE UPSLOPE CONDITIONS FOR THE CATSKILLS AND
DACKS MAY EXPERIENCE ENHANCE RAINFALL. WE WILL PLACE THESE AREAS
INTO LIKELY POPS BEGINNING LATER WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING INTO ALL
OF THURSDAY. QPF AMOUNTS COULD APPROACH ONE INCH BUT FLOOD
CONCERNS ARE LOW AT THIS TIME PER COORDINATION WITH NERFC.

AS FOR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...WHILE LAPSE RATES ARE NOT TOO
CONDUCIVE...THE H850 LI/S /AKA SHOWALTER INDEX/ DROP TO OR JUST
BELOW 0C OVER MOST OF EASTERN NY. THIS WILL WARRANT THE
CONTINUATION WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...MOS GUIDANCE IS RATHER
CLOSE WITH AVERAGE HIGHS INTO THE MID-UPPER 70S AND SOME LOWER 80S
IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY WELL INTO
THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT OUR AREA MIGHT BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN A
CUTOFF LOW TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST...AND UPPER LATITUDE MID LEVEL
RIDGE TO OUR NORTH THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS SCENARIO
MIGHT KEEP OUR AREA DRY WITH ONLY SOME CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME. THE
CANADIAN MODEL DOES BRING SOME SHOWERS INTO OUR REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BUT IS REALLY NOT SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST EUROPEAN
AND GFS EXTENDED MODEL GUIDANCE.

WE HAVE FOLLOWED WPC/S THINKING AND HAVE KEPT OUR AREA RAINFREE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE
SEASONABLE...WITH HIGHS 75-80 IN THE VALLEYS...70-75 HIGHER TERRAIN
EACH DAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOKS TO BE MAINLY IN THE 50S...UPPER 50S
LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED OFFSHORE...AND A WEAK WARM FRONT IS
APPROACHING THE REGION THIS MORNING. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH
A SFC WAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM
THE WEST TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR LEVELS THIS
MORNING WITH SOME LOW STRATUS FORMING WITH THE INCREASING LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. KPSF HAS THE BEST CHANCE FOR
IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH SOME RADIATIONAL MIST OR FOG FORMING...AND
THEN STRATUS. THE LOW-LEVEL STRATUS IS FORECASTED IN THE 1.5-2.5
KFT AGL RANGE AT KGFL/KALB/KPOU BTWN 09Z-12Z...AND SHOULD BURN OFF
SHORTLY THEREAFTER. KPSF MAY HAVE IT LINGER UNTIL 15Z. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN THEREAFTER WITH SCT-BKN CUMULUS 4-5 KFT AGL
AND MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AROUND. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH A
MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT WILL BE AFTER
22Z TODAY. VCSH GROUPS WERE PLACED IN THE FCST AT ALL THE TAF
SITES BTWN 22Z TO 00Z/THU.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM THIS MORNING...AND THEN INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 4-8 KTS. THEY WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WED NT - THU NT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRI-SUN: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ANOTHER DRY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. THE
WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A SLOW
MOVING AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND WESTERN
AND CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVER TOWARD 90 AND NEAR 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT. MINIMUM VALUES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
50S PERCENTILE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS AT THIS TIME.
THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A
SLOW MOVING AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION. THE
HIGH QPF AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND WESTERN
AND CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY INCLUDING THE CATSKILLS. MODEL QPF HAS
INCREASE WITH UP TO ONE INCH BASIN AVERAGE WEST OF THE HUDSON
RIVER. DUE TO LOW RIVER LEVELS AT THE PRESENT TIME...MOST OF THIS
RAIN SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN RIVER BANKS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/BGM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM








000
FXUS61 KBOX 200541
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
141 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PATTERN STARTS TO BECOME A BIT MORE
UNSETTLED EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
130 AM UPDATE...
AS MENTIONED BEFORE...THE UPPER LVL CI HAS BECOME MAINLY BKN
ACROSS THE REGION AND HAS SLOWED RADIATIONAL COOLING PROCESSES
ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...NOTE THAT CLEARING IS BEGINNING TO
FILTER IN FROM THE W WITH DWPTS DROPPING INTO THE 40S.
THEREFORE...STILL PLENTY OF TIME BETWEEN NOW AND SUNRISE FOR TEMPS
TO FALL OFF THE TABLE. HAVE ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS AND MINS
ACCORDINGLY WITH THIS UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...

GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT OF WEAK ENHANCEMENT OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AS
IT PUSHES E ACROSS THE NE-CONUS. WILL KEEP WITH A DRY FORECAST WITH
PREVAILING SUBSIDENCE ACCOMPANIED BY HIGH PRESSURE UNDER LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS.

WATCHING THE CLOUD DECK PRESENTLY OVER PA/NY. THIS SHOULD SLOWLY
ADVECT E WITH THE W/SW-FLOW REARWARD OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE. HIGH
CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOWER AND
THICKER CLOUDS INTO W NEW ENGLAND BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS CAN
RESULT IN COMPLICATIONS IN BOTH OVERNIGHT LOWS AND DENSE FOG
POTENTIAL AND COULD TOTALLY RUIN THE FORECAST.

YET ALTOGETHER...NOTING CLOUDS ALONG WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN NEW ENGLAND OF ANOTHER
NIGHT OF EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING. CONSIDERING TUESDAY
MORNING LOWS...WEDNESDAY MORNING LOWS SHOULD BE AROUND THE UPPER-
40S ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE AREAS WHICH RADIATE WELL. ELSEWHERE LOWS
AROUND THE MID-50S WITH URBAN CENTERS SLIGHTLY WARMER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...

THREE BLIND MICE? SURE SEEMS LIKE IT. THE NEIGHBORING OF THE GREAT
LAKES...NE-CANADA...AND NW-ATLANTIC LOWS LENDS TO A STRENGTHENING OF
THE SURFACE LABRADOR HIGH AND MID-LEVEL RIDGE ALONG WITH PERSISTING
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR. SHOULD BE A QUIET DAY WEATHER-WISE.

MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE THE CONTINUED ENCROACHMENT OF CLOUDS INTO NEW
ENGLAND...THE THICKEST OF WHICH WILL BE INTO THE CT-RIVER VALLEY.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS...BUT WILL KEEP W OF THE BERKSHIRES BASED
ON GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT OF CONTINUED ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR AS FAR W
AS THE HUDSON-RIVER VALLEY. BEST ISENTROPIC MOTIONS / LIFT PARENT
WITH MOISTURE AVAILABILITY REMAIN W ACROSS NY/PA COLLOCATED WITH THE
SURFACE WARM FRONT.

COMBINATION OF BOTH A THERMAL AND PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD RESULT IN
AN ONSHORE SEA-BREEZE FLOW BY MID-MORNING. WARMER AIRMASS FILTERING
INTO THE REGION ALOFT COUPLED WITH A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER
SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS AROUND THE
LOW-80S BENEATH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

TROUGHING PARENT TO THE GREAT LAKES LOW RENEWS LOW PRESSURE ALONG
THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND OUT TO SEA.
SUBSEQUENT FALLING HEIGHTS AS THE NE-CANADA LOW LIFTING NE RESULTS
IN THE GREAT LAKES CLOSED LOW AND ATTENDANT WARM-FRONT TO WOBBLE
INTO THE NE-CONUS. WILL SEE CLOUDS INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION
ALLOWING THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO THE CT-RIVER VALLEY.

EVALUATING MODEL FIELDS...THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT OF SUBSIDENCE AND
LOW- TO MID-LEVEL DRY AIR ACROSS MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND. EVALUATING
ISENTROPIC FLOW AND FORCED ASCENT...ACTIVITY REMAINS ACROSS AND W OF
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. DECENT SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND ENHANCED
ASCENT COUPLED WITH A S/SW COMPONENT OF ISENTROPIC FLOW KEEPS THE
MAJORITY OF WET-WEATHER OUT OF OUR AREA. IN FACT...EVALUATING THETAE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD EXHIBITS EROSION AS IT ENCOUNTERS
MOISTURE-DEPRIVED DRIER AIR TO THE E.

ANOTHER EVENING OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW. WITH THE ENCROACHMENT OF
THE GREAT LAKES SYSTEM AS A WHOLE...HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE OF COOLEST
NIGHTTIME LOWS ACROSS E/SE NEW ENGLAND...WHEREAS THICKENING CLOUDS
OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND WILL KEEP THINGS MILD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
* UNCERTAINTY INCREASES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM. THE GFS
HAS COME MORE IN LINE BOTH WITH TODAYS ECMWF AS WELL AS YESTERDAYS
ECMWF RUN IN KEEPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS COMING OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST WELL EAST OF OUR SHORE LINE. A PERSISTENT UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY EAST...
MOVING OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PUSHES
NORTHWARD FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLER...
LESS SEASONABLE WEATHER WHILE HIGH PRESSURE IN QUEBEC WILL KEEP
THINGS RELATIVELY DRY. THIS HIGH WILL SINK SOUTH THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...EVENTUALLY DROPPING SOUTH OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND RETURNING US TO A MORE WESTERLY FLOW. LOW
PRESSURE IN ONTARIO MAY EVENTUALLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO QUEBEC
BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY. DEPENDING ON AVAILABLE MOISTURE THIS MAY INITIATE A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

BEYOND THIS WEEKEND...THE FORECAST HERE WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON THE
EVOLUTION OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. HOW
QUICKLY THE TROUGH PUSHES EAST VARIES GREATLY BY MODEL SO EXPECT A
GREATER THAN NORMAL POTENTIAL FOR AN EVER EVOLVING FORECAST FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THU. ONLY CAVEAT WILL BE SOME SPOTTY GROUND FOG
AT TYPICALLY PRONE AIRPORTS BOTH THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLY MAINLY W OF AN IJD-ORH-AFN LINE
DURING THE DAY ON THU.

FLOW SHIFTS FROM THE SW TO THE E THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...ASSISTED
BY SEA BREEZES. LIGHT AND VRB FLOW RETURNS AGAIN TONIGHT...WITH E
FLOW AGAIN ON THU.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY
MVFR/IFR FOG EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER. PREVAILING E-WINDS. GUSTS OF 10-15 KTS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SE-WATERS...AND PERHAPS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
NEAR-SHORE AS THE SEA-BREEZE DEVELOPS AROUND 10-11 AM WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION.
LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY OVERNIGHT FOG LIMITING VISIBILITIES.
SEAS MAY INCREASE ON THE OUTER WATERS THIS WEEKEND AS AN OCEAN
STORM PASSES WELL EAST OF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...DOODY/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...DOODY/RLG
MARINE...RLG/SIPPRELL




000
FXUS61 KBOX 200541
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
141 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PATTERN STARTS TO BECOME A BIT MORE
UNSETTLED EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
130 AM UPDATE...
AS MENTIONED BEFORE...THE UPPER LVL CI HAS BECOME MAINLY BKN
ACROSS THE REGION AND HAS SLOWED RADIATIONAL COOLING PROCESSES
ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...NOTE THAT CLEARING IS BEGINNING TO
FILTER IN FROM THE W WITH DWPTS DROPPING INTO THE 40S.
THEREFORE...STILL PLENTY OF TIME BETWEEN NOW AND SUNRISE FOR TEMPS
TO FALL OFF THE TABLE. HAVE ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS AND MINS
ACCORDINGLY WITH THIS UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...

GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT OF WEAK ENHANCEMENT OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AS
IT PUSHES E ACROSS THE NE-CONUS. WILL KEEP WITH A DRY FORECAST WITH
PREVAILING SUBSIDENCE ACCOMPANIED BY HIGH PRESSURE UNDER LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS.

WATCHING THE CLOUD DECK PRESENTLY OVER PA/NY. THIS SHOULD SLOWLY
ADVECT E WITH THE W/SW-FLOW REARWARD OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE. HIGH
CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOWER AND
THICKER CLOUDS INTO W NEW ENGLAND BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS CAN
RESULT IN COMPLICATIONS IN BOTH OVERNIGHT LOWS AND DENSE FOG
POTENTIAL AND COULD TOTALLY RUIN THE FORECAST.

YET ALTOGETHER...NOTING CLOUDS ALONG WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN NEW ENGLAND OF ANOTHER
NIGHT OF EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING. CONSIDERING TUESDAY
MORNING LOWS...WEDNESDAY MORNING LOWS SHOULD BE AROUND THE UPPER-
40S ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE AREAS WHICH RADIATE WELL. ELSEWHERE LOWS
AROUND THE MID-50S WITH URBAN CENTERS SLIGHTLY WARMER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...

THREE BLIND MICE? SURE SEEMS LIKE IT. THE NEIGHBORING OF THE GREAT
LAKES...NE-CANADA...AND NW-ATLANTIC LOWS LENDS TO A STRENGTHENING OF
THE SURFACE LABRADOR HIGH AND MID-LEVEL RIDGE ALONG WITH PERSISTING
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR. SHOULD BE A QUIET DAY WEATHER-WISE.

MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE THE CONTINUED ENCROACHMENT OF CLOUDS INTO NEW
ENGLAND...THE THICKEST OF WHICH WILL BE INTO THE CT-RIVER VALLEY.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS...BUT WILL KEEP W OF THE BERKSHIRES BASED
ON GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT OF CONTINUED ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR AS FAR W
AS THE HUDSON-RIVER VALLEY. BEST ISENTROPIC MOTIONS / LIFT PARENT
WITH MOISTURE AVAILABILITY REMAIN W ACROSS NY/PA COLLOCATED WITH THE
SURFACE WARM FRONT.

COMBINATION OF BOTH A THERMAL AND PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD RESULT IN
AN ONSHORE SEA-BREEZE FLOW BY MID-MORNING. WARMER AIRMASS FILTERING
INTO THE REGION ALOFT COUPLED WITH A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER
SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS AROUND THE
LOW-80S BENEATH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

TROUGHING PARENT TO THE GREAT LAKES LOW RENEWS LOW PRESSURE ALONG
THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND OUT TO SEA.
SUBSEQUENT FALLING HEIGHTS AS THE NE-CANADA LOW LIFTING NE RESULTS
IN THE GREAT LAKES CLOSED LOW AND ATTENDANT WARM-FRONT TO WOBBLE
INTO THE NE-CONUS. WILL SEE CLOUDS INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION
ALLOWING THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO THE CT-RIVER VALLEY.

EVALUATING MODEL FIELDS...THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT OF SUBSIDENCE AND
LOW- TO MID-LEVEL DRY AIR ACROSS MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND. EVALUATING
ISENTROPIC FLOW AND FORCED ASCENT...ACTIVITY REMAINS ACROSS AND W OF
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. DECENT SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND ENHANCED
ASCENT COUPLED WITH A S/SW COMPONENT OF ISENTROPIC FLOW KEEPS THE
MAJORITY OF WET-WEATHER OUT OF OUR AREA. IN FACT...EVALUATING THETAE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD EXHIBITS EROSION AS IT ENCOUNTERS
MOISTURE-DEPRIVED DRIER AIR TO THE E.

ANOTHER EVENING OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW. WITH THE ENCROACHMENT OF
THE GREAT LAKES SYSTEM AS A WHOLE...HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE OF COOLEST
NIGHTTIME LOWS ACROSS E/SE NEW ENGLAND...WHEREAS THICKENING CLOUDS
OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND WILL KEEP THINGS MILD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
* UNCERTAINTY INCREASES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM. THE GFS
HAS COME MORE IN LINE BOTH WITH TODAYS ECMWF AS WELL AS YESTERDAYS
ECMWF RUN IN KEEPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS COMING OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST WELL EAST OF OUR SHORE LINE. A PERSISTENT UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY EAST...
MOVING OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PUSHES
NORTHWARD FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLER...
LESS SEASONABLE WEATHER WHILE HIGH PRESSURE IN QUEBEC WILL KEEP
THINGS RELATIVELY DRY. THIS HIGH WILL SINK SOUTH THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...EVENTUALLY DROPPING SOUTH OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND RETURNING US TO A MORE WESTERLY FLOW. LOW
PRESSURE IN ONTARIO MAY EVENTUALLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO QUEBEC
BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY. DEPENDING ON AVAILABLE MOISTURE THIS MAY INITIATE A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

BEYOND THIS WEEKEND...THE FORECAST HERE WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON THE
EVOLUTION OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. HOW
QUICKLY THE TROUGH PUSHES EAST VARIES GREATLY BY MODEL SO EXPECT A
GREATER THAN NORMAL POTENTIAL FOR AN EVER EVOLVING FORECAST FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THU. ONLY CAVEAT WILL BE SOME SPOTTY GROUND FOG
AT TYPICALLY PRONE AIRPORTS BOTH THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLY MAINLY W OF AN IJD-ORH-AFN LINE
DURING THE DAY ON THU.

FLOW SHIFTS FROM THE SW TO THE E THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...ASSISTED
BY SEA BREEZES. LIGHT AND VRB FLOW RETURNS AGAIN TONIGHT...WITH E
FLOW AGAIN ON THU.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY
MVFR/IFR FOG EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER. PREVAILING E-WINDS. GUSTS OF 10-15 KTS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SE-WATERS...AND PERHAPS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
NEAR-SHORE AS THE SEA-BREEZE DEVELOPS AROUND 10-11 AM WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION.
LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY OVERNIGHT FOG LIMITING VISIBILITIES.
SEAS MAY INCREASE ON THE OUTER WATERS THIS WEEKEND AS AN OCEAN
STORM PASSES WELL EAST OF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...DOODY/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...DOODY/RLG
MARINE...RLG/SIPPRELL




000
FXUS61 KBOX 200541
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
141 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PATTERN STARTS TO BECOME A BIT MORE
UNSETTLED EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
130 AM UPDATE...
AS MENTIONED BEFORE...THE UPPER LVL CI HAS BECOME MAINLY BKN
ACROSS THE REGION AND HAS SLOWED RADIATIONAL COOLING PROCESSES
ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...NOTE THAT CLEARING IS BEGINNING TO
FILTER IN FROM THE W WITH DWPTS DROPPING INTO THE 40S.
THEREFORE...STILL PLENTY OF TIME BETWEEN NOW AND SUNRISE FOR TEMPS
TO FALL OFF THE TABLE. HAVE ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS AND MINS
ACCORDINGLY WITH THIS UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...

GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT OF WEAK ENHANCEMENT OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AS
IT PUSHES E ACROSS THE NE-CONUS. WILL KEEP WITH A DRY FORECAST WITH
PREVAILING SUBSIDENCE ACCOMPANIED BY HIGH PRESSURE UNDER LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS.

WATCHING THE CLOUD DECK PRESENTLY OVER PA/NY. THIS SHOULD SLOWLY
ADVECT E WITH THE W/SW-FLOW REARWARD OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE. HIGH
CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOWER AND
THICKER CLOUDS INTO W NEW ENGLAND BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS CAN
RESULT IN COMPLICATIONS IN BOTH OVERNIGHT LOWS AND DENSE FOG
POTENTIAL AND COULD TOTALLY RUIN THE FORECAST.

YET ALTOGETHER...NOTING CLOUDS ALONG WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN NEW ENGLAND OF ANOTHER
NIGHT OF EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING. CONSIDERING TUESDAY
MORNING LOWS...WEDNESDAY MORNING LOWS SHOULD BE AROUND THE UPPER-
40S ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE AREAS WHICH RADIATE WELL. ELSEWHERE LOWS
AROUND THE MID-50S WITH URBAN CENTERS SLIGHTLY WARMER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...

THREE BLIND MICE? SURE SEEMS LIKE IT. THE NEIGHBORING OF THE GREAT
LAKES...NE-CANADA...AND NW-ATLANTIC LOWS LENDS TO A STRENGTHENING OF
THE SURFACE LABRADOR HIGH AND MID-LEVEL RIDGE ALONG WITH PERSISTING
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR. SHOULD BE A QUIET DAY WEATHER-WISE.

MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE THE CONTINUED ENCROACHMENT OF CLOUDS INTO NEW
ENGLAND...THE THICKEST OF WHICH WILL BE INTO THE CT-RIVER VALLEY.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS...BUT WILL KEEP W OF THE BERKSHIRES BASED
ON GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT OF CONTINUED ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR AS FAR W
AS THE HUDSON-RIVER VALLEY. BEST ISENTROPIC MOTIONS / LIFT PARENT
WITH MOISTURE AVAILABILITY REMAIN W ACROSS NY/PA COLLOCATED WITH THE
SURFACE WARM FRONT.

COMBINATION OF BOTH A THERMAL AND PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD RESULT IN
AN ONSHORE SEA-BREEZE FLOW BY MID-MORNING. WARMER AIRMASS FILTERING
INTO THE REGION ALOFT COUPLED WITH A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER
SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS AROUND THE
LOW-80S BENEATH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

TROUGHING PARENT TO THE GREAT LAKES LOW RENEWS LOW PRESSURE ALONG
THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND OUT TO SEA.
SUBSEQUENT FALLING HEIGHTS AS THE NE-CANADA LOW LIFTING NE RESULTS
IN THE GREAT LAKES CLOSED LOW AND ATTENDANT WARM-FRONT TO WOBBLE
INTO THE NE-CONUS. WILL SEE CLOUDS INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION
ALLOWING THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO THE CT-RIVER VALLEY.

EVALUATING MODEL FIELDS...THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT OF SUBSIDENCE AND
LOW- TO MID-LEVEL DRY AIR ACROSS MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND. EVALUATING
ISENTROPIC FLOW AND FORCED ASCENT...ACTIVITY REMAINS ACROSS AND W OF
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. DECENT SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND ENHANCED
ASCENT COUPLED WITH A S/SW COMPONENT OF ISENTROPIC FLOW KEEPS THE
MAJORITY OF WET-WEATHER OUT OF OUR AREA. IN FACT...EVALUATING THETAE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD EXHIBITS EROSION AS IT ENCOUNTERS
MOISTURE-DEPRIVED DRIER AIR TO THE E.

ANOTHER EVENING OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW. WITH THE ENCROACHMENT OF
THE GREAT LAKES SYSTEM AS A WHOLE...HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE OF COOLEST
NIGHTTIME LOWS ACROSS E/SE NEW ENGLAND...WHEREAS THICKENING CLOUDS
OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND WILL KEEP THINGS MILD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
* UNCERTAINTY INCREASES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM. THE GFS
HAS COME MORE IN LINE BOTH WITH TODAYS ECMWF AS WELL AS YESTERDAYS
ECMWF RUN IN KEEPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS COMING OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST WELL EAST OF OUR SHORE LINE. A PERSISTENT UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY EAST...
MOVING OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PUSHES
NORTHWARD FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLER...
LESS SEASONABLE WEATHER WHILE HIGH PRESSURE IN QUEBEC WILL KEEP
THINGS RELATIVELY DRY. THIS HIGH WILL SINK SOUTH THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...EVENTUALLY DROPPING SOUTH OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND RETURNING US TO A MORE WESTERLY FLOW. LOW
PRESSURE IN ONTARIO MAY EVENTUALLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO QUEBEC
BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY. DEPENDING ON AVAILABLE MOISTURE THIS MAY INITIATE A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

BEYOND THIS WEEKEND...THE FORECAST HERE WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON THE
EVOLUTION OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. HOW
QUICKLY THE TROUGH PUSHES EAST VARIES GREATLY BY MODEL SO EXPECT A
GREATER THAN NORMAL POTENTIAL FOR AN EVER EVOLVING FORECAST FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THU. ONLY CAVEAT WILL BE SOME SPOTTY GROUND FOG
AT TYPICALLY PRONE AIRPORTS BOTH THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLY MAINLY W OF AN IJD-ORH-AFN LINE
DURING THE DAY ON THU.

FLOW SHIFTS FROM THE SW TO THE E THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...ASSISTED
BY SEA BREEZES. LIGHT AND VRB FLOW RETURNS AGAIN TONIGHT...WITH E
FLOW AGAIN ON THU.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY
MVFR/IFR FOG EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER. PREVAILING E-WINDS. GUSTS OF 10-15 KTS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SE-WATERS...AND PERHAPS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
NEAR-SHORE AS THE SEA-BREEZE DEVELOPS AROUND 10-11 AM WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION.
LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY OVERNIGHT FOG LIMITING VISIBILITIES.
SEAS MAY INCREASE ON THE OUTER WATERS THIS WEEKEND AS AN OCEAN
STORM PASSES WELL EAST OF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...DOODY/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...DOODY/RLG
MARINE...RLG/SIPPRELL




000
FXUS61 KBOX 200541
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
141 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PATTERN STARTS TO BECOME A BIT MORE
UNSETTLED EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
130 AM UPDATE...
AS MENTIONED BEFORE...THE UPPER LVL CI HAS BECOME MAINLY BKN
ACROSS THE REGION AND HAS SLOWED RADIATIONAL COOLING PROCESSES
ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...NOTE THAT CLEARING IS BEGINNING TO
FILTER IN FROM THE W WITH DWPTS DROPPING INTO THE 40S.
THEREFORE...STILL PLENTY OF TIME BETWEEN NOW AND SUNRISE FOR TEMPS
TO FALL OFF THE TABLE. HAVE ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS AND MINS
ACCORDINGLY WITH THIS UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...

GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT OF WEAK ENHANCEMENT OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AS
IT PUSHES E ACROSS THE NE-CONUS. WILL KEEP WITH A DRY FORECAST WITH
PREVAILING SUBSIDENCE ACCOMPANIED BY HIGH PRESSURE UNDER LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS.

WATCHING THE CLOUD DECK PRESENTLY OVER PA/NY. THIS SHOULD SLOWLY
ADVECT E WITH THE W/SW-FLOW REARWARD OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE. HIGH
CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOWER AND
THICKER CLOUDS INTO W NEW ENGLAND BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS CAN
RESULT IN COMPLICATIONS IN BOTH OVERNIGHT LOWS AND DENSE FOG
POTENTIAL AND COULD TOTALLY RUIN THE FORECAST.

YET ALTOGETHER...NOTING CLOUDS ALONG WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN NEW ENGLAND OF ANOTHER
NIGHT OF EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING. CONSIDERING TUESDAY
MORNING LOWS...WEDNESDAY MORNING LOWS SHOULD BE AROUND THE UPPER-
40S ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE AREAS WHICH RADIATE WELL. ELSEWHERE LOWS
AROUND THE MID-50S WITH URBAN CENTERS SLIGHTLY WARMER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...

THREE BLIND MICE? SURE SEEMS LIKE IT. THE NEIGHBORING OF THE GREAT
LAKES...NE-CANADA...AND NW-ATLANTIC LOWS LENDS TO A STRENGTHENING OF
THE SURFACE LABRADOR HIGH AND MID-LEVEL RIDGE ALONG WITH PERSISTING
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR. SHOULD BE A QUIET DAY WEATHER-WISE.

MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE THE CONTINUED ENCROACHMENT OF CLOUDS INTO NEW
ENGLAND...THE THICKEST OF WHICH WILL BE INTO THE CT-RIVER VALLEY.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS...BUT WILL KEEP W OF THE BERKSHIRES BASED
ON GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT OF CONTINUED ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR AS FAR W
AS THE HUDSON-RIVER VALLEY. BEST ISENTROPIC MOTIONS / LIFT PARENT
WITH MOISTURE AVAILABILITY REMAIN W ACROSS NY/PA COLLOCATED WITH THE
SURFACE WARM FRONT.

COMBINATION OF BOTH A THERMAL AND PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD RESULT IN
AN ONSHORE SEA-BREEZE FLOW BY MID-MORNING. WARMER AIRMASS FILTERING
INTO THE REGION ALOFT COUPLED WITH A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER
SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS AROUND THE
LOW-80S BENEATH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

TROUGHING PARENT TO THE GREAT LAKES LOW RENEWS LOW PRESSURE ALONG
THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND OUT TO SEA.
SUBSEQUENT FALLING HEIGHTS AS THE NE-CANADA LOW LIFTING NE RESULTS
IN THE GREAT LAKES CLOSED LOW AND ATTENDANT WARM-FRONT TO WOBBLE
INTO THE NE-CONUS. WILL SEE CLOUDS INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION
ALLOWING THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO THE CT-RIVER VALLEY.

EVALUATING MODEL FIELDS...THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT OF SUBSIDENCE AND
LOW- TO MID-LEVEL DRY AIR ACROSS MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND. EVALUATING
ISENTROPIC FLOW AND FORCED ASCENT...ACTIVITY REMAINS ACROSS AND W OF
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. DECENT SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND ENHANCED
ASCENT COUPLED WITH A S/SW COMPONENT OF ISENTROPIC FLOW KEEPS THE
MAJORITY OF WET-WEATHER OUT OF OUR AREA. IN FACT...EVALUATING THETAE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD EXHIBITS EROSION AS IT ENCOUNTERS
MOISTURE-DEPRIVED DRIER AIR TO THE E.

ANOTHER EVENING OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW. WITH THE ENCROACHMENT OF
THE GREAT LAKES SYSTEM AS A WHOLE...HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE OF COOLEST
NIGHTTIME LOWS ACROSS E/SE NEW ENGLAND...WHEREAS THICKENING CLOUDS
OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND WILL KEEP THINGS MILD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
* UNCERTAINTY INCREASES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM. THE GFS
HAS COME MORE IN LINE BOTH WITH TODAYS ECMWF AS WELL AS YESTERDAYS
ECMWF RUN IN KEEPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS COMING OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST WELL EAST OF OUR SHORE LINE. A PERSISTENT UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY EAST...
MOVING OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PUSHES
NORTHWARD FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLER...
LESS SEASONABLE WEATHER WHILE HIGH PRESSURE IN QUEBEC WILL KEEP
THINGS RELATIVELY DRY. THIS HIGH WILL SINK SOUTH THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...EVENTUALLY DROPPING SOUTH OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND RETURNING US TO A MORE WESTERLY FLOW. LOW
PRESSURE IN ONTARIO MAY EVENTUALLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO QUEBEC
BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY. DEPENDING ON AVAILABLE MOISTURE THIS MAY INITIATE A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

BEYOND THIS WEEKEND...THE FORECAST HERE WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON THE
EVOLUTION OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. HOW
QUICKLY THE TROUGH PUSHES EAST VARIES GREATLY BY MODEL SO EXPECT A
GREATER THAN NORMAL POTENTIAL FOR AN EVER EVOLVING FORECAST FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THU. ONLY CAVEAT WILL BE SOME SPOTTY GROUND FOG
AT TYPICALLY PRONE AIRPORTS BOTH THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLY MAINLY W OF AN IJD-ORH-AFN LINE
DURING THE DAY ON THU.

FLOW SHIFTS FROM THE SW TO THE E THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...ASSISTED
BY SEA BREEZES. LIGHT AND VRB FLOW RETURNS AGAIN TONIGHT...WITH E
FLOW AGAIN ON THU.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY
MVFR/IFR FOG EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER. PREVAILING E-WINDS. GUSTS OF 10-15 KTS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SE-WATERS...AND PERHAPS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
NEAR-SHORE AS THE SEA-BREEZE DEVELOPS AROUND 10-11 AM WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION.
LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY OVERNIGHT FOG LIMITING VISIBILITIES.
SEAS MAY INCREASE ON THE OUTER WATERS THIS WEEKEND AS AN OCEAN
STORM PASSES WELL EAST OF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...DOODY/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...DOODY/RLG
MARINE...RLG/SIPPRELL




000
FXUS61 KOKX 200534
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
134 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION INTO WEDNESDAY...THEN
SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AT
THE END OF THE WEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
FOR THE WEEKEND...THEN SLOWLY SLIDES OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
CLOUD COVER WITH PASSING 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE...IS A BIT MORE
EXTENSIVE THEN EXPECTED...SO HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER.
ALSO...WITH IR SATELLITE SHOWING HIGH CLOUDS WORKING UP FROM THE
S...LIKELY TO ARRIVE AS MID DECK WITH SHORTWAVE EXITS...SHOULD
HAVE LIMITED...IF ANY RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT
HAVE RAISED LOWS AND ELIMINATED FOG FROM THE FORECAST.

TEMP SENSOR AT KLDJ (LINDEN) HAS BEEN REPORTED FOR FAA MAINTENANCE
(TOO WARM).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
WHILE SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE NORTHEAST -
AN UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE APPROACH (THE SHORT WAVE
PASSING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT).

BASED ON 09Z SREF AND 12Z DETERMINISTIC RUNS...KEEPING IT DRY
EXCEPT FOR ORANGE COUNTY AFT MIDNIGHT.

SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER WE`LL HAVE TOMORROW...BUT
AM THINKING CIRRUS WOULD BE THIN - THUS MOSTLY SUNNY.

BLENDED MOS USED FOR TEMPS WITH LITTLE SPREAD SEEN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH SETS UP ALONG THE NORTHEAST AS SFC HIGH PRES
BUILDS OVER THE REGION. SEVERAL STRONG SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE
AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...POSSIBLY
TOUCHING OFF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME. BEST
CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN ZONES.

UPPER LEVEL LOW PRES THEN MOVES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS
AND MEANDERS THERE THIS WEEKEND AS SFC HIGH PRES STRENGTHENS OVER
THE AREA BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE EARLY IN THE NEW WEEK. DRY CONDITIONS
ON TAP FROM SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
GENERALLY DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA.

MAINLY VFR EARLY THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT PATCHY
STRATUS AND FOG OUTSIDE OF NYC METRO FOR A FEW HOURS.

THEN EXPECT FEW TO SCT CU TODAY. A POP UP SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE WELL NORTH AND WEST OF NYC THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WOULD BE
TOO ISOLATED TO INCLUDE IN TERMINAL FORECASTS.

LIGHT WINDS BECOME SOUTHEAST/SOUTH AT 6 TO 11 KTS THIS AFTERNOON MOST
TERMINALS.

WINDS LIGHTEN BY EVENING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THU THROUGH SUN...
.THU NIGHT...SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE ACROSS NYC METRO AND LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY TERMINALS. AS SUCH...SUB VFR POSSIBLE.
.FRI-SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
MADE MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST CHANGES IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK...AND POSSIBLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A PERSISTENT EASTERLY
FLOW WILL DEVELOP FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO
20 KT. SEAS ON THE OCEAN MAY BUILD CLOSE TO 5 FT THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. DRY CONDITIONS ON TAP THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/TONGUE
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...TONGUE
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...MALOIT/MPS/TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...TONGUE







000
FXUS61 KOKX 200534
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
134 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION INTO WEDNESDAY...THEN
SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AT
THE END OF THE WEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
FOR THE WEEKEND...THEN SLOWLY SLIDES OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
CLOUD COVER WITH PASSING 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE...IS A BIT MORE
EXTENSIVE THEN EXPECTED...SO HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER.
ALSO...WITH IR SATELLITE SHOWING HIGH CLOUDS WORKING UP FROM THE
S...LIKELY TO ARRIVE AS MID DECK WITH SHORTWAVE EXITS...SHOULD
HAVE LIMITED...IF ANY RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT
HAVE RAISED LOWS AND ELIMINATED FOG FROM THE FORECAST.

TEMP SENSOR AT KLDJ (LINDEN) HAS BEEN REPORTED FOR FAA MAINTENANCE
(TOO WARM).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
WHILE SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE NORTHEAST -
AN UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE APPROACH (THE SHORT WAVE
PASSING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT).

BASED ON 09Z SREF AND 12Z DETERMINISTIC RUNS...KEEPING IT DRY
EXCEPT FOR ORANGE COUNTY AFT MIDNIGHT.

SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER WE`LL HAVE TOMORROW...BUT
AM THINKING CIRRUS WOULD BE THIN - THUS MOSTLY SUNNY.

BLENDED MOS USED FOR TEMPS WITH LITTLE SPREAD SEEN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH SETS UP ALONG THE NORTHEAST AS SFC HIGH PRES
BUILDS OVER THE REGION. SEVERAL STRONG SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE
AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...POSSIBLY
TOUCHING OFF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME. BEST
CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN ZONES.

UPPER LEVEL LOW PRES THEN MOVES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS
AND MEANDERS THERE THIS WEEKEND AS SFC HIGH PRES STRENGTHENS OVER
THE AREA BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE EARLY IN THE NEW WEEK. DRY CONDITIONS
ON TAP FROM SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
GENERALLY DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA.

MAINLY VFR EARLY THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT PATCHY
STRATUS AND FOG OUTSIDE OF NYC METRO FOR A FEW HOURS.

THEN EXPECT FEW TO SCT CU TODAY. A POP UP SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE WELL NORTH AND WEST OF NYC THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WOULD BE
TOO ISOLATED TO INCLUDE IN TERMINAL FORECASTS.

LIGHT WINDS BECOME SOUTHEAST/SOUTH AT 6 TO 11 KTS THIS AFTERNOON MOST
TERMINALS.

WINDS LIGHTEN BY EVENING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THU THROUGH SUN...
.THU NIGHT...SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE ACROSS NYC METRO AND LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY TERMINALS. AS SUCH...SUB VFR POSSIBLE.
.FRI-SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
MADE MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST CHANGES IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK...AND POSSIBLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A PERSISTENT EASTERLY
FLOW WILL DEVELOP FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO
20 KT. SEAS ON THE OCEAN MAY BUILD CLOSE TO 5 FT THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. DRY CONDITIONS ON TAP THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/TONGUE
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...TONGUE
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...MALOIT/MPS/TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...TONGUE








000
FXUS61 KOKX 200239
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1039 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION INTO WEDNESDAY...THEN
SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AT
THE END OF THE WEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
FOR THE WEEKEND...THEN SLOWLY SLIDES OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
COULD COVER WITH PASSING 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE...IS A BIT MORE
EXTENSIVE THEN EXPECTED...SO HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER.
ALSO...WITH IR SATELLITE SHOWING HIGH CLOUDS WORKING UP FROM THE
S...LIKELY TO ARRIVE AS MID DECK WITH SHORTWAVE EXITS...SHOULD
HAVE LIMITED...IF ANY RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT
HAVE RAISED LOWS AND ELIMINATED FOG FROM THE FORECAST.

TEMP SENSOR AT KLDJ (LINDEN) HAS BEEN REPORTED FOR FAA MAINTENANCE
(TOO WARM).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WHILE SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE NORTHEAST -
AN UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE APPROACH (THE SHORT WAVE
PASSING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT).

BASED ON 09Z SREF AND 12Z DETERMINISTIC RUNS...KEEPING IT DRY
EXCEPT FOR ORANGE COUNTY AFT MIDNIGHT.

SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER WE`LL HAVE TOMORROW...BUT
AM THINKING CIRRUS WOULD BE THIN - THUS MOSTLY SUNNY.

BLENDED MOS USED FOR TEMPS WITH LITTLE SPREAD SEEN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH SETS UP ALONG THE NORTHEAST AS SFC HIGH PRES
BUILDS OVER THE REGION. SEVERAL STRONG SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE
AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...POSSIBLY
TOUCHING OFF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME. BEST
CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN ZONES.

UPPER LEVEL LOW PRES THEN MOVES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS
AND MEANDERS THERE THIS WEEKEND AS SFC HIGH PRES STRENGTHENS OVER
THE AREA BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE EARLY IN THE NEW WEEK. DRY CONDITIONS
ON TAP FROM SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
GENERALLY DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA.

VFR THROUGH THE NIGHT. VSBYS BELOW 6SM STILL POSSIBLE AT SOME
TERMINALS OUTSIDE OF THE CITY LATE...BUT CONFIDENCE IN FOG
DEVELOPMENT IS DIMINISHING AS MID LEVEL CLOUDS PUSH THROUGH AT
LEAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

LIGHT WINDS BCMG VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...AND THEN BRIEFLY EASTERLY
WED MORNING. SE-S SEA BREEZES AT MOST TERMINALS LATE MORNING/AFTN.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THU THROUGH SUN...
.THU NIGHT...SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE ACROSS NYC METRO AND LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY TERMINALS.
.FRI-SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
MADE MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST CHANGES IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK...AND POSSIBLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A PERSISTENT EASTERLY
FLOW WILL DEVELOP FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO
20 KT. SEAS ON THE OCEAN MAY BUILD CLOSE TO 5 FT THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. DRY CONDITIONS ON TAP THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/TONGUE
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...TONGUE
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...MALOIT/MPS/TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...TONGUE






000
FXUS61 KOKX 200239
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1039 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION INTO WEDNESDAY...THEN
SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AT
THE END OF THE WEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
FOR THE WEEKEND...THEN SLOWLY SLIDES OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
COULD COVER WITH PASSING 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE...IS A BIT MORE
EXTENSIVE THEN EXPECTED...SO HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER.
ALSO...WITH IR SATELLITE SHOWING HIGH CLOUDS WORKING UP FROM THE
S...LIKELY TO ARRIVE AS MID DECK WITH SHORTWAVE EXITS...SHOULD
HAVE LIMITED...IF ANY RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT
HAVE RAISED LOWS AND ELIMINATED FOG FROM THE FORECAST.

TEMP SENSOR AT KLDJ (LINDEN) HAS BEEN REPORTED FOR FAA MAINTENANCE
(TOO WARM).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WHILE SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE NORTHEAST -
AN UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE APPROACH (THE SHORT WAVE
PASSING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT).

BASED ON 09Z SREF AND 12Z DETERMINISTIC RUNS...KEEPING IT DRY
EXCEPT FOR ORANGE COUNTY AFT MIDNIGHT.

SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER WE`LL HAVE TOMORROW...BUT
AM THINKING CIRRUS WOULD BE THIN - THUS MOSTLY SUNNY.

BLENDED MOS USED FOR TEMPS WITH LITTLE SPREAD SEEN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH SETS UP ALONG THE NORTHEAST AS SFC HIGH PRES
BUILDS OVER THE REGION. SEVERAL STRONG SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE
AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...POSSIBLY
TOUCHING OFF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME. BEST
CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN ZONES.

UPPER LEVEL LOW PRES THEN MOVES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS
AND MEANDERS THERE THIS WEEKEND AS SFC HIGH PRES STRENGTHENS OVER
THE AREA BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE EARLY IN THE NEW WEEK. DRY CONDITIONS
ON TAP FROM SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
GENERALLY DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA.

VFR THROUGH THE NIGHT. VSBYS BELOW 6SM STILL POSSIBLE AT SOME
TERMINALS OUTSIDE OF THE CITY LATE...BUT CONFIDENCE IN FOG
DEVELOPMENT IS DIMINISHING AS MID LEVEL CLOUDS PUSH THROUGH AT
LEAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

LIGHT WINDS BCMG VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...AND THEN BRIEFLY EASTERLY
WED MORNING. SE-S SEA BREEZES AT MOST TERMINALS LATE MORNING/AFTN.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THU THROUGH SUN...
.THU NIGHT...SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE ACROSS NYC METRO AND LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY TERMINALS.
.FRI-SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
MADE MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST CHANGES IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK...AND POSSIBLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A PERSISTENT EASTERLY
FLOW WILL DEVELOP FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO
20 KT. SEAS ON THE OCEAN MAY BUILD CLOSE TO 5 FT THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. DRY CONDITIONS ON TAP THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/TONGUE
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...TONGUE
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...MALOIT/MPS/TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...TONGUE







000
FXUS61 KOKX 200219
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1019 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION INTO WEDNESDAY...THEN
SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AT
THE END OF THE WEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
FOR THE WEEKEND...THEN SLOWLY SLIDES OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
COULD COVER WITH PASSING 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE...IS A BIT MORE
EXTENSIVE THEN EXPECTED...SO HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER.
ALSO...WITH IR SATELLITE SHOWING HIGH CLOUDS WORKING UP FROM THE
S...LIKELY TO ARRIVE AS MID DECK WITH SHORTWAVE EXITS...SHOULD
HAVE LIMITED...IF ANY RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT
HAVE RAISED LOWS AND ELIMINATED FOG FROM THE FORECAST.

TEMP SENSOR AT KLDJ (LINDEN) HAS BEEN REPORTED FOR FAA MAINTENANCE
(TOO WARM).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WHILE SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE NORTHEAST -
AN UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE APPROACH (THE SHORT WAVE
PASSING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT).

BASED ON 09Z SREF AND 12Z DETERMINISTIC RUNS...KEEPING IT DRY
EXCEPT FOR ORANGE COUNTY AFT MIDNIGHT.

SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER WE`LL HAVE TOMORROW...BUT
AM THINKING CIRRUS WOULD BE THIN - THUS MOSTLY SUNNY.

BLENDED MOS USED FOR TEMPS WITH LITTLE SPREAD SEEN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH SETS UP ALONG THE NORTHEAST AS SFC HIGH PRES
BUILDS OVER THE REGION. SEVERAL STRONG SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE
AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...POSSIBLY
TOUCHING OFF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME. BEST
CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN ZONES.

UPPER LEVEL LOW PRES THEN MOVES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS
AND MEANDERS THERE THIS WEEKEND AS SFC HIGH PRES STRENGTHENS OVER
THE AREA BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE EARLY IN THE NEW WEEK. DRY CONDITIONS
ON TAP FROM SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
GENERALLY DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA.

VFR THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH VSBYS BELOW 6SM PROBABLY DEVELOPING AT
KGON AND POSSIBLY KSWF LATE.

LIGHT SE-S FLOW THIS EVENING SHOULD GO LIGHT/VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AND
THEN EASTERLY AGAIN BY WED MORNING. EXPECT REPEAT PERFORMANCE OF
SE-S SEA BREEZES AT COASTAL TERMINALS LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THU THROUGH SUN...
.THU NIGHT...SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE ACROSS NYC METRO AND LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY TERMINALS.
.FRI-SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
MADE MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST CHANGES IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK...AND POSSIBLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A PERSISTENT EASTERLY
FLOW WILL DEVELOP FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO
20 KT. SEAS ON THE OCEAN MAY BUILD CLOSE TO 5 FT THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. DRY CONDITIONS ON TAP THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/TONGUE
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...TONGUE
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...MALOIT/MPS/TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...TONGUE








000
FXUS61 KOKX 200219
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1019 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION INTO WEDNESDAY...THEN
SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AT
THE END OF THE WEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
FOR THE WEEKEND...THEN SLOWLY SLIDES OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
COULD COVER WITH PASSING 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE...IS A BIT MORE
EXTENSIVE THEN EXPECTED...SO HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER.
ALSO...WITH IR SATELLITE SHOWING HIGH CLOUDS WORKING UP FROM THE
S...LIKELY TO ARRIVE AS MID DECK WITH SHORTWAVE EXITS...SHOULD
HAVE LIMITED...IF ANY RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT
HAVE RAISED LOWS AND ELIMINATED FOG FROM THE FORECAST.

TEMP SENSOR AT KLDJ (LINDEN) HAS BEEN REPORTED FOR FAA MAINTENANCE
(TOO WARM).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WHILE SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE NORTHEAST -
AN UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE APPROACH (THE SHORT WAVE
PASSING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT).

BASED ON 09Z SREF AND 12Z DETERMINISTIC RUNS...KEEPING IT DRY
EXCEPT FOR ORANGE COUNTY AFT MIDNIGHT.

SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER WE`LL HAVE TOMORROW...BUT
AM THINKING CIRRUS WOULD BE THIN - THUS MOSTLY SUNNY.

BLENDED MOS USED FOR TEMPS WITH LITTLE SPREAD SEEN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH SETS UP ALONG THE NORTHEAST AS SFC HIGH PRES
BUILDS OVER THE REGION. SEVERAL STRONG SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE
AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...POSSIBLY
TOUCHING OFF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME. BEST
CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN ZONES.

UPPER LEVEL LOW PRES THEN MOVES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS
AND MEANDERS THERE THIS WEEKEND AS SFC HIGH PRES STRENGTHENS OVER
THE AREA BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE EARLY IN THE NEW WEEK. DRY CONDITIONS
ON TAP FROM SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
GENERALLY DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA.

VFR THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH VSBYS BELOW 6SM PROBABLY DEVELOPING AT
KGON AND POSSIBLY KSWF LATE.

LIGHT SE-S FLOW THIS EVENING SHOULD GO LIGHT/VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AND
THEN EASTERLY AGAIN BY WED MORNING. EXPECT REPEAT PERFORMANCE OF
SE-S SEA BREEZES AT COASTAL TERMINALS LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THU THROUGH SUN...
.THU NIGHT...SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE ACROSS NYC METRO AND LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY TERMINALS.
.FRI-SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
MADE MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST CHANGES IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK...AND POSSIBLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A PERSISTENT EASTERLY
FLOW WILL DEVELOP FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO
20 KT. SEAS ON THE OCEAN MAY BUILD CLOSE TO 5 FT THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. DRY CONDITIONS ON TAP THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/TONGUE
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...TONGUE
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...MALOIT/MPS/TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...TONGUE







000
FXUS61 KBOX 200200
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1000 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PATTERN STARTS TO BECOME A BIT MORE
UNSETTLED EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...
CONTINUE TO WATCH A BAND OF UPPER LVL CI AND EVEN A FEW PATCHES OF
MID LVL STRATO-CU MOVING E-NE FROM THE AXIS OF THE APPALACHIANS.
AS NOTED BY THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER...THIS MAKES OVERNIGHT MIN
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS TRICKY. WINDS ARE ALREADY NEARING CALM
THANKS TO THE VERY WEAK PRES GRADIENT AND LOSS OF DIURNAL HEAT
SUPPORT. HOWEVER...TO WHAT EXTENT...IF AT ALL...THE CLOUDS LIMIT
RADIATIONAL COOLING REMAINS IN QUESTION. STILL THINK SOME OF THE
DEEPER VALLEYS ACROSS NW MA AND SW NH SHOULD RADIATE SOME...SO
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION AT LEAST UPPER 40S IN SOME OF THESE
SPOTS. SOME OF THE NORMAL RADIATORS ARE LIKELY TO FALL BACK AS
WELL. THEREFORE...HAVE TENTATIVELY LOWERED MINS A BIT WITH THIS
UPDATE...MAINLY BECAUSE IT SHOULD RADIATE SOME AS LONG AS THIS
CLOUD DECK REMAIN GENERALLY 20KFT OR ABOVE AND SPARSE. WILL HAVE
TO WATCH TRENDS CLOSELY.

TONIGHT...

GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT OF WEAK ENHANCEMENT OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AS
IT PUSHES E ACROSS THE NE-CONUS. WILL KEEP WITH A DRY FORECAST WITH
PREVAILING SUBSIDENCE ACCOMPANIED BY HIGH PRESSURE UNDER LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS.

WATCHING THE CLOUD DECK PRESENTLY OVER PA/NY. THIS SHOULD SLOWLY
ADVECT E WITH THE W/SW-FLOW REARWARD OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE. HIGH
CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOWER AND
THICKER CLOUDS INTO W NEW ENGLAND BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS CAN
RESULT IN COMPLICATIONS IN BOTH OVERNIGHT LOWS AND DENSE FOG
POTENTIAL AND COULD TOTALLY RUIN THE FORECAST.

YET ALTOGETHER...NOTING CLOUDS ALONG WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN NEW ENGLAND OF ANOTHER
NIGHT OF EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING. CONSIDERING TUESDAY
MORNING LOWS...WEDNESDAY MORNING LOWS SHOULD BE AROUND THE UPPER-
40S ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE AREAS WHICH RADIATE WELL. ELSEWHERE LOWS
AROUND THE MID-50S WITH URBAN CENTERS SLIGHTLY WARMER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY...

THREE BLIND MICE? SURE SEEMS LIKE IT. THE NEIGHBORING OF THE GREAT
LAKES...NE-CANADA...AND NW-ATLANTIC LOWS LENDS TO A STRENGTHENING OF
THE SURFACE LABRADOR HIGH AND MID-LEVEL RIDGE ALONG WITH PERSISTING
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR. SHOULD BE A QUIET DAY WEATHER-WISE.

MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE THE CONTINUED ENCROACHMENT OF CLOUDS INTO NEW
ENGLAND...THE THICKEST OF WHICH WILL BE INTO THE CT-RIVER VALLEY.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS...BUT WILL KEEP W OF THE BERKSHIRES BASED
ON GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT OF CONTINUED ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR AS FAR W
AS THE HUDSON-RIVER VALLEY. BEST ISENTROPIC MOTIONS / LIFT PARENT
WITH MOISTURE AVAILABILITY REMAIN W ACROSS NY/PA COLLOCATED WITH THE
SURFACE WARM FRONT.

COMBINATION OF BOTH A THERMAL AND PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD RESULT IN
AN ONSHORE SEA-BREEZE FLOW BY MID-MORNING. WARMER AIRMASS FILTERING
INTO THE REGION ALOFT COUPLED WITH A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER
SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS AROUND THE
LOW-80S BENEATH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

TROUGHING PARENT TO THE GREAT LAKES LOW RENEWS LOW PRESSURE ALONG
THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND OUT TO SEA.
SUBSEQUENT FALLING HEIGHTS AS THE NE-CANADA LOW LIFTING NE RESULTS
IN THE GREAT LAKES CLOSED LOW AND ATTENDANT WARM-FRONT TO WOBBLE
INTO THE NE-CONUS. WILL SEE CLOUDS INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION
ALLOWING THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO THE CT-RIVER VALLEY.

EVALUATING MODEL FIELDS...THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT OF SUBSIDENCE AND
LOW- TO MID-LEVEL DRY AIR ACROSS MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND. EVALUATING
ISENTROPIC FLOW AND FORCED ASCENT...ACTIVITY REMAINS ACROSS AND W OF
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. DECENT SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND ENHANCED
ASCENT COUPLED WITH A S/SW COMPONENT OF ISENTROPIC FLOW KEEPS THE
MAJORITY OF WET-WEATHER OUT OF OUR AREA. IN FACT...EVALUATING THETAE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD EXHIBITS EROSION AS IT ENCOUNTERS
MOISTURE-DEPRIVED DRIER AIR TO THE E.

ANOTHER EVENING OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW. WITH THE ENCROACHMENT OF
THE GREAT LAKES SYSTEM AS A WHOLE...HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE OF COOLEST
NIGHTTIME LOWS ACROSS E/SE NEW ENGLAND...WHEREAS THICKENING CLOUDS
OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND WILL KEEP THINGS MILD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
* UNCERTAINTY INCREASES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM. THE GFS
HAS COME MORE IN LINE BOTH WITH TODAYS ECMWF AS WELL AS YESTERDAYS
ECMWF RUN IN KEEPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS COMING OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST WELL EAST OF OUR SHORE LINE. A PERSISTENT UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY EAST...
MOVING OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PUSHES
NORTHWARD FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLER...
LESS SEASONABLE WEATHER WHILE HIGH PRESSURE IN QUEBEC WILL KEEP
THINGS RELATIVELY DRY. THIS HIGH WILL SINK SOUTH THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...EVENTUALLY DROPPING SOUTH OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND RETURNING US TO A MORE WESTERLY FLOW. LOW
PRESSURE IN ONTARIO MAY EVENTUALLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO QUEBEC
BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY. DEPENDING ON AVAILABLE MOISTURE THIS MAY INITIATE A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

BEYOND THIS WEEKEND...THE FORECAST HERE WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON THE
EVOLUTION OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. HOW
QUICKLY THE TROUGH PUSHES EAST VARIES GREATLY BY MODEL SO EXPECT A
GREATER THAN NORMAL POTENTIAL FOR AN EVER EVOLVING FORECAST FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

00Z UPDATE...

MAINLY VFR. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS ALONG WITH PATCHY MVFR-IFR FOG
OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SEABREEZE LIKELY AGAIN
WEDNESDAY. LOW PROBABILITY OF MVFR-IFR CIGS ACROSS SE MA LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY
MVFR/IFR FOG EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER. PREVAILING E-WINDS. GUSTS OF 10-15 KTS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SE-WATERS...AND PERHAPS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
NEAR-SHORE AS THE SEA-BREEZE DEVELOPS AROUND 10-11 AM WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION.
LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY OVERNIGHT FOG LIMITING VISIBILITIES.
SEAS MAY INCREASE ON THE OUTER WATERS THIS WEEKEND AS AN OCEAN
STORM PASSES WELL EAST OF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...DOODY/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...RLG/SIPPRELL
MARINE...RLG/SIPPRELL



000
FXUS61 KALY 200134
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
930 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LOOSEN ITS GRIP ACROSS THE REGION AS OUR WEATHER
WILL TURN UNSETTLED FOR THE LATER HALF OF THIS WEEK. A SLOW MOVING
AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT OUR REGION
WEDNESDAY WITH CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. THE BEST CHANCES
FOR WET WEATHER WILL BE ALONG AND WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WESTERN AND
CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY AND CATSKILLS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 930 PM EDT...HIGH CLOUDS HAVE WORKED INTO THE AREA. IFR
11.9U-3.9U INDICATED THAT SOME PATCHES OF STRATUS HAVE FORMED AS
WELL ACROSS CENTRAL NY INTO NORTHERN PA.

DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN RISING A LITTLE...AND WILL DO SO OVERNIGHT. EVEN
WITH ONLY A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY...WE BELIEVE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
NEEDED TO BE RAISED A COUPLE OF DEGREES AND THEREFORE WE DID THAT
WITH THIS UPDATE.

OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR TWEAKING OF THE HOURLY GRIDS INCLUDING THE
CLOUD GRIDS.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 50 NORTH AND WELL EAST OF
THE CAPITAL REGION...TO THE MID AND UPPER 50S OVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA. IT SHOULD REMAIN COMPLETELY DRY.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD OF WEATHER WILL BE UNDER INCREASING
CLOUD COVER...HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND THE RAISING THE
PROBABILITIES FOR SHOWERS. THE 12Z MODEL SUITE AND ENSEMBLES ARE A
LITTLE HIGHER WITH THE OVERALL QPF FIELD ALONG AND WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER AS PWATS CLIMB 1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.
THE CULPRIT WAS THE UPPER LOW SEEN IN THE H2O VAPOR LOOP OVER THE
U.P. OF MI. AS THIS LOW TRACKS FURTHER EAST...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER
NORTHEAST CANADA STRENGTHENS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SQUEEZE BETWEEN
THIS UPPER LOW AND THE SURFACE RIDGE REATTEMPTING TO BUILD
SOUTHWESTWARD.

AS THE CASE LEADING INTO THIS FORECAST...THE BEST MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND ISENTROPIC LIFT REMAIN ALONG OR WEST OF THE HUDSON
RIVER. AS LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES THROUGH
THURSDAY...FAVORABLE UPSLOPE CONDITIONS FOR THE CATSKILLS AND
DACKS MAY EXPERIENCE ENHANCE RAINFALL. WE WILL PLACE THESE AREAS
INTO LIKELY POPS BEGINNING LATER WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING INTO ALL
OF THURSDAY. QPF AMOUNTS COULD APPROACH ONE INCH BUT FLOOD
CONCERNS ARE LOW AT THIS TIME PER COORDINATION WITH NERFC.

AS FOR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...WHILE LAPSE RATES ARE NOT TOO
CONDUCIVE...THE H850 LI/S /AKA SHOWALTER INDEX/ DROP TO OR JUST
BELOW 0C OVER MOST OF EASTERN NY. THIS WILL WARRANT THE
CONTINUATION WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...MOS GUIDANCE IS RATHER
CLOSE WITH AVERAGE HIGHS INTO THE MID-UPPER 70S AND SOME LOWER 80S
IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY WELL INTO
THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT OUR AREA MIGHT BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN A
CUTOFF LOW TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST...AND UPPER LATITUDE MID LEVEL
RIDGE TO OUR NORTH THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS SCENARIO
MIGHT KEEP OUR AREA DRY WITH ONLY SOME CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME. THE
CANADIAN MODEL DOES BRING SOME SHOWERS INTO OUR REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BUT IS REALLY NOT SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST EUROPEAN
AND GFS EXTENDED MODEL GUIDANCE.

WE HAVE FOLLOWED WPC/S THINKING AND HAVE KEPT OUR AREA RAINFREE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE
SEASONABLE...WITH HIGHS 75-80 IN THE VALLEYS...70-75 HIGHER TERRAIN
EACH DAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOKS TO BE MAINLY IN THE 50S...UPPER 50S
LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO AVIATION WEATHER RELATED PROBLEM THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING.
HOWEVER...SOME PATCHY IFR MIST (2SM BR) MIGHT FORM AT KGFL STARTING
AROUND 04Z. WE HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR THAT TO HAPPEN.

THE CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES LOOK TO SLOWLY INCREASE INTO THE LOWER
AND POSSIBLY MID 50S OVERNIGHT WHILE A MAINLY CLEAR SKY COULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL A LITTLE BELOW THESE THRESHOLD AT KGFL AND
KPSF. WE HAVE GONE WITH PREVAILING IFR MIST (2SM BR) AT KGFL AFTER
06Z AND AFTER 08Z AT KPSF.

AT THE OTHER TWO SITES...KPOU AND KALB PROBABLY NO REAL FOG
ISSUES...SINCE OVERNIGHT LOWS AT THOSE WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
UPPER 50S. ALSO...SOME STRATUS MIGHT FORM AROUND KPOU...PROBABLY
REMAINING JUST ABOVE THE MVFR/VFR THRESHOLD.

AT KALB...WE PLACED MIFG IN THE TAF TO REFLECT THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME FOG...BUT LIKELY NOT GOING TO MVFR OR CERTAINLY IFR.

AFTER ANY POSSIBLE LOW CLOUDS/FOG BURN OFF BETWEEN
11Z-13Z/WED...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN...WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS
WITH BASES GENERALLY BETWEEN 4000-6000 FT AGL INTO THE AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS WILL ENCROACH THE TAF SITES FROM NW TO SE...SO PLACED VCSH
IN THE TAFS...STARTING AT 17Z AT KGFL/18Z KALB/19Z KPSF AND 21Z
KPOU. AT THIS POINT SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON APPEAR UNLIKELY
TO DROP CONDITIONS TO MVFR OR IFR.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM TONIGHT...BECOMING S-SE
5-10KTS ON WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WED NT - THU NT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRI-SUN: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ANOTHER DRY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. THE
WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A SLOW
MOVING AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND WESTERN
AND CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVER TOWARD 90 AND NEAR 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT. MINIMUM VALUES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
50S PERCENTILE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS AT THIS TIME.
THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A
SLOW MOVING AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION. THE
HIGH QPF AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND WESTERN
AND CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY INCLUDING THE CATSKILLS. MODEL QPF HAS
INCREASE WITH UP TO ONE INCH BASIN AVERAGE WEST OF THE HUDSON
RIVER. DUE TO LOW RIVER LEVELS AT THE PRESENT TIME...MOST OF THIS
RAIN SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN RIVER BANKS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/BGM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV/KL
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM









000
FXUS61 KALY 200134
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
930 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LOOSEN ITS GRIP ACROSS THE REGION AS OUR WEATHER
WILL TURN UNSETTLED FOR THE LATER HALF OF THIS WEEK. A SLOW MOVING
AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT OUR REGION
WEDNESDAY WITH CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. THE BEST CHANCES
FOR WET WEATHER WILL BE ALONG AND WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WESTERN AND
CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY AND CATSKILLS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 930 PM EDT...HIGH CLOUDS HAVE WORKED INTO THE AREA. IFR
11.9U-3.9U INDICATED THAT SOME PATCHES OF STRATUS HAVE FORMED AS
WELL ACROSS CENTRAL NY INTO NORTHERN PA.

DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN RISING A LITTLE...AND WILL DO SO OVERNIGHT. EVEN
WITH ONLY A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY...WE BELIEVE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
NEEDED TO BE RAISED A COUPLE OF DEGREES AND THEREFORE WE DID THAT
WITH THIS UPDATE.

OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR TWEAKING OF THE HOURLY GRIDS INCLUDING THE
CLOUD GRIDS.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 50 NORTH AND WELL EAST OF
THE CAPITAL REGION...TO THE MID AND UPPER 50S OVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA. IT SHOULD REMAIN COMPLETELY DRY.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD OF WEATHER WILL BE UNDER INCREASING
CLOUD COVER...HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND THE RAISING THE
PROBABILITIES FOR SHOWERS. THE 12Z MODEL SUITE AND ENSEMBLES ARE A
LITTLE HIGHER WITH THE OVERALL QPF FIELD ALONG AND WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER AS PWATS CLIMB 1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.
THE CULPRIT WAS THE UPPER LOW SEEN IN THE H2O VAPOR LOOP OVER THE
U.P. OF MI. AS THIS LOW TRACKS FURTHER EAST...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER
NORTHEAST CANADA STRENGTHENS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SQUEEZE BETWEEN
THIS UPPER LOW AND THE SURFACE RIDGE REATTEMPTING TO BUILD
SOUTHWESTWARD.

AS THE CASE LEADING INTO THIS FORECAST...THE BEST MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND ISENTROPIC LIFT REMAIN ALONG OR WEST OF THE HUDSON
RIVER. AS LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES THROUGH
THURSDAY...FAVORABLE UPSLOPE CONDITIONS FOR THE CATSKILLS AND
DACKS MAY EXPERIENCE ENHANCE RAINFALL. WE WILL PLACE THESE AREAS
INTO LIKELY POPS BEGINNING LATER WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING INTO ALL
OF THURSDAY. QPF AMOUNTS COULD APPROACH ONE INCH BUT FLOOD
CONCERNS ARE LOW AT THIS TIME PER COORDINATION WITH NERFC.

AS FOR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...WHILE LAPSE RATES ARE NOT TOO
CONDUCIVE...THE H850 LI/S /AKA SHOWALTER INDEX/ DROP TO OR JUST
BELOW 0C OVER MOST OF EASTERN NY. THIS WILL WARRANT THE
CONTINUATION WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...MOS GUIDANCE IS RATHER
CLOSE WITH AVERAGE HIGHS INTO THE MID-UPPER 70S AND SOME LOWER 80S
IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY WELL INTO
THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT OUR AREA MIGHT BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN A
CUTOFF LOW TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST...AND UPPER LATITUDE MID LEVEL
RIDGE TO OUR NORTH THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS SCENARIO
MIGHT KEEP OUR AREA DRY WITH ONLY SOME CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME. THE
CANADIAN MODEL DOES BRING SOME SHOWERS INTO OUR REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BUT IS REALLY NOT SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST EUROPEAN
AND GFS EXTENDED MODEL GUIDANCE.

WE HAVE FOLLOWED WPC/S THINKING AND HAVE KEPT OUR AREA RAINFREE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE
SEASONABLE...WITH HIGHS 75-80 IN THE VALLEYS...70-75 HIGHER TERRAIN
EACH DAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOKS TO BE MAINLY IN THE 50S...UPPER 50S
LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO AVIATION WEATHER RELATED PROBLEM THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING.
HOWEVER...SOME PATCHY IFR MIST (2SM BR) MIGHT FORM AT KGFL STARTING
AROUND 04Z. WE HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR THAT TO HAPPEN.

THE CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES LOOK TO SLOWLY INCREASE INTO THE LOWER
AND POSSIBLY MID 50S OVERNIGHT WHILE A MAINLY CLEAR SKY COULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL A LITTLE BELOW THESE THRESHOLD AT KGFL AND
KPSF. WE HAVE GONE WITH PREVAILING IFR MIST (2SM BR) AT KGFL AFTER
06Z AND AFTER 08Z AT KPSF.

AT THE OTHER TWO SITES...KPOU AND KALB PROBABLY NO REAL FOG
ISSUES...SINCE OVERNIGHT LOWS AT THOSE WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
UPPER 50S. ALSO...SOME STRATUS MIGHT FORM AROUND KPOU...PROBABLY
REMAINING JUST ABOVE THE MVFR/VFR THRESHOLD.

AT KALB...WE PLACED MIFG IN THE TAF TO REFLECT THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME FOG...BUT LIKELY NOT GOING TO MVFR OR CERTAINLY IFR.

AFTER ANY POSSIBLE LOW CLOUDS/FOG BURN OFF BETWEEN
11Z-13Z/WED...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN...WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS
WITH BASES GENERALLY BETWEEN 4000-6000 FT AGL INTO THE AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS WILL ENCROACH THE TAF SITES FROM NW TO SE...SO PLACED VCSH
IN THE TAFS...STARTING AT 17Z AT KGFL/18Z KALB/19Z KPSF AND 21Z
KPOU. AT THIS POINT SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON APPEAR UNLIKELY
TO DROP CONDITIONS TO MVFR OR IFR.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM TONIGHT...BECOMING S-SE
5-10KTS ON WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WED NT - THU NT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRI-SUN: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ANOTHER DRY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. THE
WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A SLOW
MOVING AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND WESTERN
AND CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVER TOWARD 90 AND NEAR 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT. MINIMUM VALUES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
50S PERCENTILE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS AT THIS TIME.
THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A
SLOW MOVING AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION. THE
HIGH QPF AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND WESTERN
AND CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY INCLUDING THE CATSKILLS. MODEL QPF HAS
INCREASE WITH UP TO ONE INCH BASIN AVERAGE WEST OF THE HUDSON
RIVER. DUE TO LOW RIVER LEVELS AT THE PRESENT TIME...MOST OF THIS
RAIN SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN RIVER BANKS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/BGM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV/KL
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM










000
FXUS61 KALY 192348
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
745 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LOOSEN ITS GRIP ACROSS THE REGION AS OUR WEATHER
WILL TURN UNSETTLED FOR THE LATER HALF OF THIS WEEK. A SLOW MOVING
AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT OUR REGION
WEDNESDAY WITH CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. THE BEST CHANCES
FOR WET WEATHER WILL BE ALONG AND WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WESTERN AND
CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY AND CATSKILLS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 745 PM EDT...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUED TO PROVIDE FINE
WEATHER...WITH JUST A FEW PATCHES OF CIRRUS NEAR US...AND
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 70S...DEWPOINTS AROUND 50...MAKING FOR
A COMFORTABLE EVENING.

FOR THIS UPDATE...ONLY VERY MINOR TWEAKING OF THE HOURLY GRIDS.

UPSTREAM...MAINLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG A DEWPOINT BOUNDARY WAS
SLOWLY ADVECTING PAST THE I81 CORRIDOR. THIS WILL BE THE MAIN
CHALLENGE TO THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT.

IT NOW APPEARS THAT HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATER THIS
EVENING...AND PERHAPS WE THIN OUT OVERNIGHT FOR AWHILE. IF THAT
HAPPENS...IT IS A GOOD BET WE WILL HAVE SOME PATCHY FOG AS HIGHER
DEWPOINTS WERE ADVECTING IN FROM THE WEST AS WELL.

EVEN IF THE SKY REMAINS MAINLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT...THE HIGHER
DEWPOINTS SHOULD ALLOW OVERNIGHT LOWS TO BE A LITTLE MILDER TONIGHT
WITH MAINLY 50S...SOME UPPER 40S INTO THE DACKS. NO CHANGES WERE
MADE TO THE OVERNIGHT LOWS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD OF WEATHER WILL BE UNDER INCREASING
CLOUD COVER...HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND THE RAISING THE
PROBABILITIES FOR SHOWERS. THE 12Z MODEL SUITE AND ENSEMBLES ARE A
LITTLE HIGHER WITH THE OVERALL QPF FIELD ALONG AND WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER AS PWATS CLIMB 1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.
THE CULPRIT WAS THE UPPER LOW SEEN IN THE H2O VAPOR LOOP OVER THE
U.P. OF MI. AS THIS LOW TRACKS FURTHER EAST...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER
NORTHEAST CANADA STRENGTHENS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SQUEEZE BETWEEN
THIS UPPER LOW AND THE SURFACE RIDGE REATTEMPTING TO BUILD
SOUTHWESTWARD.

AS THE CASE LEADING INTO THIS FORECAST...THE BEST MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND ISENTROPIC LIFT REMAIN ALONG OR WEST OF THE HUDSON
RIVER. AS LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES THROUGH
THURSDAY...FAVORABLE UPSLOPE CONDITIONS FOR THE CATSKILLS AND
DACKS MAY EXPERIENCE ENHANCE RAINFALL. WE WILL PLACE THESE AREAS
INTO LIKELY POPS BEGINNING LATER WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING INTO ALL
OF THURSDAY. QPF AMOUNTS COULD APPROACH ONE INCH BUT FLOOD
CONCERNS ARE LOW AT THIS TIME PER COORDINATION WITH NERFC.

AS FOR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...WHILE LAPSE RATES ARE NOT TOO
CONDUCIVE...THE H850 LI/S /AKA SHOWALTER INDEX/ DROP TO OR JUST
BELOW 0C OVER MOST OF EASTERN NY. THIS WILL WARRANT THE
CONTINUATION WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...MOS GUIDANCE IS RATHER
CLOSE WITH AVERAGE HIGHS INTO THE MID-UPPER 70S AND SOME LOWER 80S
IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY WELL INTO
THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT OUR AREA MIGHT BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN A
CUTOFF LOW TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST...AND UPPER LATITUDE MID LEVEL
RIDGE TO OUR NORTH THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS SCENARIO
MIGHT KEEP OUR AREA DRY WITH ONLY SOME CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME. THE
CANADIAN MODEL DOES BRING SOME SHOWERS INTO OUR REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BUT IS REALLY NOT SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST EUROPEAN
AND GFS EXTENDED MODEL GUIDANCE.

WE HAVE FOLLOWED WPC/S THINKING AND HAVE KEPT OUR AREA RAINFREE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE
SEASONABLE...WITH HIGHS 75-80 IN THE VALLEYS...70-75 HIGHER TERRAIN
EACH DAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOKS TO BE MAINLY IN THE 50S...UPPER 50S
LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO AVIATION WEATHER RELATED PROBLEM THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING.
HOWEVER...SOME PATCHY IFR MIST (2SM BR) MIGHT FOR AT KGFL STARTING
AROUND 04Z. WE HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR THAT TO HAPPEN.

THE CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES LOOK TO SLOWLY INCREASE INTO THE LOWER
50S OVERNIGHT WHILE A MAINLY CLEAR SKY COULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
EASILY FALL BELOW THESE THRESHOLD AT KGFL AND KPSF. WE HAVE GONE
WITH PREVAILING IFR MIST (2SM BR) AT KGFL AFTER 06Z AND AFTER 08Z AT
KPSF.

AT THE OTHER TWO SITES...KPOU AND KALB PROBABLY NO REAL FOG
ISSUES...ESPECIALLY IF SOME LOWER CLOUDS FORM...WHICH THEY MIGHT AT
KPOU. THESE LOWER CLOUDS LOOK TO REMAIN AT OR JUST ABOVE THE MVFR
STATUS...FOR NOW WE WENT ABOVE MVFR AT KPOU. AT KALB...WE PLACED
MIFG IN THE TAF TO REFLECT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME FOG.

AFTER ANY POSSIBLE LOW CLOUDS/FOG BURN OFF BETWEEN
11Z-13Z/WED...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN...WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS
WITH BASES GENERALLY BETWEEN 4000-6000 FT AGL INTO THE AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS WILL ENCROACH THE TAF SITES FROM NW TO SE...SO PLACED VCSH
IN THE TAFS...STARTING AT 17Z AT KGFL/18Z KALB/19Z KPSF AND 21Z
KPOU. AT THIS POINT SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON APPEAR UNLIKELY
TO DROP CONDITIONS TO MVFR OR IFR.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM TONIGHT...BECOMING S-SE
5-10KTS ON WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WED NT - THU NT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRI-SUN: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ANOTHER DRY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. THE
WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A SLOW
MOVING AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND WESTERN
AND CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVER TOWARD 90 AND NEAR 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT. MINIMUM VALUES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
50S PERCENTILE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS AT THIS TIME.
THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A
SLOW MOVING AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION. THE
HIGH QPF AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND WESTERN
AND CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY INCLUDING THE CATSKILLS. MODEL QPF HAS
INCREASE WITH UP TO ONE INCH BASIN AVERAGE WEST OF THE HUDSON
RIVER. DUE TO LOW RIVER LEVELS AT THE PRESENT TIME...MOST OF THIS
RAIN SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN RIVER BANKS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/BGM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV/KL
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM









000
FXUS61 KALY 192348
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
745 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LOOSEN ITS GRIP ACROSS THE REGION AS OUR WEATHER
WILL TURN UNSETTLED FOR THE LATER HALF OF THIS WEEK. A SLOW MOVING
AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT OUR REGION
WEDNESDAY WITH CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. THE BEST CHANCES
FOR WET WEATHER WILL BE ALONG AND WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WESTERN AND
CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY AND CATSKILLS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 745 PM EDT...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUED TO PROVIDE FINE
WEATHER...WITH JUST A FEW PATCHES OF CIRRUS NEAR US...AND
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 70S...DEWPOINTS AROUND 50...MAKING FOR
A COMFORTABLE EVENING.

FOR THIS UPDATE...ONLY VERY MINOR TWEAKING OF THE HOURLY GRIDS.

UPSTREAM...MAINLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG A DEWPOINT BOUNDARY WAS
SLOWLY ADVECTING PAST THE I81 CORRIDOR. THIS WILL BE THE MAIN
CHALLENGE TO THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT.

IT NOW APPEARS THAT HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATER THIS
EVENING...AND PERHAPS WE THIN OUT OVERNIGHT FOR AWHILE. IF THAT
HAPPENS...IT IS A GOOD BET WE WILL HAVE SOME PATCHY FOG AS HIGHER
DEWPOINTS WERE ADVECTING IN FROM THE WEST AS WELL.

EVEN IF THE SKY REMAINS MAINLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT...THE HIGHER
DEWPOINTS SHOULD ALLOW OVERNIGHT LOWS TO BE A LITTLE MILDER TONIGHT
WITH MAINLY 50S...SOME UPPER 40S INTO THE DACKS. NO CHANGES WERE
MADE TO THE OVERNIGHT LOWS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD OF WEATHER WILL BE UNDER INCREASING
CLOUD COVER...HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND THE RAISING THE
PROBABILITIES FOR SHOWERS. THE 12Z MODEL SUITE AND ENSEMBLES ARE A
LITTLE HIGHER WITH THE OVERALL QPF FIELD ALONG AND WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER AS PWATS CLIMB 1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.
THE CULPRIT WAS THE UPPER LOW SEEN IN THE H2O VAPOR LOOP OVER THE
U.P. OF MI. AS THIS LOW TRACKS FURTHER EAST...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER
NORTHEAST CANADA STRENGTHENS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SQUEEZE BETWEEN
THIS UPPER LOW AND THE SURFACE RIDGE REATTEMPTING TO BUILD
SOUTHWESTWARD.

AS THE CASE LEADING INTO THIS FORECAST...THE BEST MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND ISENTROPIC LIFT REMAIN ALONG OR WEST OF THE HUDSON
RIVER. AS LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES THROUGH
THURSDAY...FAVORABLE UPSLOPE CONDITIONS FOR THE CATSKILLS AND
DACKS MAY EXPERIENCE ENHANCE RAINFALL. WE WILL PLACE THESE AREAS
INTO LIKELY POPS BEGINNING LATER WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING INTO ALL
OF THURSDAY. QPF AMOUNTS COULD APPROACH ONE INCH BUT FLOOD
CONCERNS ARE LOW AT THIS TIME PER COORDINATION WITH NERFC.

AS FOR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...WHILE LAPSE RATES ARE NOT TOO
CONDUCIVE...THE H850 LI/S /AKA SHOWALTER INDEX/ DROP TO OR JUST
BELOW 0C OVER MOST OF EASTERN NY. THIS WILL WARRANT THE
CONTINUATION WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...MOS GUIDANCE IS RATHER
CLOSE WITH AVERAGE HIGHS INTO THE MID-UPPER 70S AND SOME LOWER 80S
IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY WELL INTO
THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT OUR AREA MIGHT BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN A
CUTOFF LOW TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST...AND UPPER LATITUDE MID LEVEL
RIDGE TO OUR NORTH THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS SCENARIO
MIGHT KEEP OUR AREA DRY WITH ONLY SOME CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME. THE
CANADIAN MODEL DOES BRING SOME SHOWERS INTO OUR REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BUT IS REALLY NOT SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST EUROPEAN
AND GFS EXTENDED MODEL GUIDANCE.

WE HAVE FOLLOWED WPC/S THINKING AND HAVE KEPT OUR AREA RAINFREE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE
SEASONABLE...WITH HIGHS 75-80 IN THE VALLEYS...70-75 HIGHER TERRAIN
EACH DAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOKS TO BE MAINLY IN THE 50S...UPPER 50S
LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO AVIATION WEATHER RELATED PROBLEM THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING.
HOWEVER...SOME PATCHY IFR MIST (2SM BR) MIGHT FOR AT KGFL STARTING
AROUND 04Z. WE HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR THAT TO HAPPEN.

THE CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES LOOK TO SLOWLY INCREASE INTO THE LOWER
50S OVERNIGHT WHILE A MAINLY CLEAR SKY COULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
EASILY FALL BELOW THESE THRESHOLD AT KGFL AND KPSF. WE HAVE GONE
WITH PREVAILING IFR MIST (2SM BR) AT KGFL AFTER 06Z AND AFTER 08Z AT
KPSF.

AT THE OTHER TWO SITES...KPOU AND KALB PROBABLY NO REAL FOG
ISSUES...ESPECIALLY IF SOME LOWER CLOUDS FORM...WHICH THEY MIGHT AT
KPOU. THESE LOWER CLOUDS LOOK TO REMAIN AT OR JUST ABOVE THE MVFR
STATUS...FOR NOW WE WENT ABOVE MVFR AT KPOU. AT KALB...WE PLACED
MIFG IN THE TAF TO REFLECT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME FOG.

AFTER ANY POSSIBLE LOW CLOUDS/FOG BURN OFF BETWEEN
11Z-13Z/WED...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN...WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS
WITH BASES GENERALLY BETWEEN 4000-6000 FT AGL INTO THE AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS WILL ENCROACH THE TAF SITES FROM NW TO SE...SO PLACED VCSH
IN THE TAFS...STARTING AT 17Z AT KGFL/18Z KALB/19Z KPSF AND 21Z
KPOU. AT THIS POINT SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON APPEAR UNLIKELY
TO DROP CONDITIONS TO MVFR OR IFR.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM TONIGHT...BECOMING S-SE
5-10KTS ON WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WED NT - THU NT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRI-SUN: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ANOTHER DRY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. THE
WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A SLOW
MOVING AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND WESTERN
AND CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVER TOWARD 90 AND NEAR 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT. MINIMUM VALUES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
50S PERCENTILE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS AT THIS TIME.
THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A
SLOW MOVING AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION. THE
HIGH QPF AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND WESTERN
AND CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY INCLUDING THE CATSKILLS. MODEL QPF HAS
INCREASE WITH UP TO ONE INCH BASIN AVERAGE WEST OF THE HUDSON
RIVER. DUE TO LOW RIVER LEVELS AT THE PRESENT TIME...MOST OF THIS
RAIN SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN RIVER BANKS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/BGM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV/KL
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM









000
FXUS61 KALY 192348
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
745 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LOOSEN ITS GRIP ACROSS THE REGION AS OUR WEATHER
WILL TURN UNSETTLED FOR THE LATER HALF OF THIS WEEK. A SLOW MOVING
AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT OUR REGION
WEDNESDAY WITH CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. THE BEST CHANCES
FOR WET WEATHER WILL BE ALONG AND WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WESTERN AND
CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY AND CATSKILLS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 745 PM EDT...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUED TO PROVIDE FINE
WEATHER...WITH JUST A FEW PATCHES OF CIRRUS NEAR US...AND
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 70S...DEWPOINTS AROUND 50...MAKING FOR
A COMFORTABLE EVENING.

FOR THIS UPDATE...ONLY VERY MINOR TWEAKING OF THE HOURLY GRIDS.

UPSTREAM...MAINLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG A DEWPOINT BOUNDARY WAS
SLOWLY ADVECTING PAST THE I81 CORRIDOR. THIS WILL BE THE MAIN
CHALLENGE TO THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT.

IT NOW APPEARS THAT HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATER THIS
EVENING...AND PERHAPS WE THIN OUT OVERNIGHT FOR AWHILE. IF THAT
HAPPENS...IT IS A GOOD BET WE WILL HAVE SOME PATCHY FOG AS HIGHER
DEWPOINTS WERE ADVECTING IN FROM THE WEST AS WELL.

EVEN IF THE SKY REMAINS MAINLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT...THE HIGHER
DEWPOINTS SHOULD ALLOW OVERNIGHT LOWS TO BE A LITTLE MILDER TONIGHT
WITH MAINLY 50S...SOME UPPER 40S INTO THE DACKS. NO CHANGES WERE
MADE TO THE OVERNIGHT LOWS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD OF WEATHER WILL BE UNDER INCREASING
CLOUD COVER...HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND THE RAISING THE
PROBABILITIES FOR SHOWERS. THE 12Z MODEL SUITE AND ENSEMBLES ARE A
LITTLE HIGHER WITH THE OVERALL QPF FIELD ALONG AND WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER AS PWATS CLIMB 1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.
THE CULPRIT WAS THE UPPER LOW SEEN IN THE H2O VAPOR LOOP OVER THE
U.P. OF MI. AS THIS LOW TRACKS FURTHER EAST...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER
NORTHEAST CANADA STRENGTHENS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SQUEEZE BETWEEN
THIS UPPER LOW AND THE SURFACE RIDGE REATTEMPTING TO BUILD
SOUTHWESTWARD.

AS THE CASE LEADING INTO THIS FORECAST...THE BEST MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND ISENTROPIC LIFT REMAIN ALONG OR WEST OF THE HUDSON
RIVER. AS LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES THROUGH
THURSDAY...FAVORABLE UPSLOPE CONDITIONS FOR THE CATSKILLS AND
DACKS MAY EXPERIENCE ENHANCE RAINFALL. WE WILL PLACE THESE AREAS
INTO LIKELY POPS BEGINNING LATER WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING INTO ALL
OF THURSDAY. QPF AMOUNTS COULD APPROACH ONE INCH BUT FLOOD
CONCERNS ARE LOW AT THIS TIME PER COORDINATION WITH NERFC.

AS FOR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...WHILE LAPSE RATES ARE NOT TOO
CONDUCIVE...THE H850 LI/S /AKA SHOWALTER INDEX/ DROP TO OR JUST
BELOW 0C OVER MOST OF EASTERN NY. THIS WILL WARRANT THE
CONTINUATION WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...MOS GUIDANCE IS RATHER
CLOSE WITH AVERAGE HIGHS INTO THE MID-UPPER 70S AND SOME LOWER 80S
IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY WELL INTO
THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT OUR AREA MIGHT BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN A
CUTOFF LOW TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST...AND UPPER LATITUDE MID LEVEL
RIDGE TO OUR NORTH THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS SCENARIO
MIGHT KEEP OUR AREA DRY WITH ONLY SOME CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME. THE
CANADIAN MODEL DOES BRING SOME SHOWERS INTO OUR REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BUT IS REALLY NOT SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST EUROPEAN
AND GFS EXTENDED MODEL GUIDANCE.

WE HAVE FOLLOWED WPC/S THINKING AND HAVE KEPT OUR AREA RAINFREE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE
SEASONABLE...WITH HIGHS 75-80 IN THE VALLEYS...70-75 HIGHER TERRAIN
EACH DAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOKS TO BE MAINLY IN THE 50S...UPPER 50S
LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO AVIATION WEATHER RELATED PROBLEM THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING.
HOWEVER...SOME PATCHY IFR MIST (2SM BR) MIGHT FOR AT KGFL STARTING
AROUND 04Z. WE HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR THAT TO HAPPEN.

THE CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES LOOK TO SLOWLY INCREASE INTO THE LOWER
50S OVERNIGHT WHILE A MAINLY CLEAR SKY COULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
EASILY FALL BELOW THESE THRESHOLD AT KGFL AND KPSF. WE HAVE GONE
WITH PREVAILING IFR MIST (2SM BR) AT KGFL AFTER 06Z AND AFTER 08Z AT
KPSF.

AT THE OTHER TWO SITES...KPOU AND KALB PROBABLY NO REAL FOG
ISSUES...ESPECIALLY IF SOME LOWER CLOUDS FORM...WHICH THEY MIGHT AT
KPOU. THESE LOWER CLOUDS LOOK TO REMAIN AT OR JUST ABOVE THE MVFR
STATUS...FOR NOW WE WENT ABOVE MVFR AT KPOU. AT KALB...WE PLACED
MIFG IN THE TAF TO REFLECT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME FOG.

AFTER ANY POSSIBLE LOW CLOUDS/FOG BURN OFF BETWEEN
11Z-13Z/WED...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN...WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS
WITH BASES GENERALLY BETWEEN 4000-6000 FT AGL INTO THE AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS WILL ENCROACH THE TAF SITES FROM NW TO SE...SO PLACED VCSH
IN THE TAFS...STARTING AT 17Z AT KGFL/18Z KALB/19Z KPSF AND 21Z
KPOU. AT THIS POINT SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON APPEAR UNLIKELY
TO DROP CONDITIONS TO MVFR OR IFR.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM TONIGHT...BECOMING S-SE
5-10KTS ON WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WED NT - THU NT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRI-SUN: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ANOTHER DRY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. THE
WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A SLOW
MOVING AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND WESTERN
AND CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVER TOWARD 90 AND NEAR 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT. MINIMUM VALUES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
50S PERCENTILE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS AT THIS TIME.
THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A
SLOW MOVING AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION. THE
HIGH QPF AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND WESTERN
AND CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY INCLUDING THE CATSKILLS. MODEL QPF HAS
INCREASE WITH UP TO ONE INCH BASIN AVERAGE WEST OF THE HUDSON
RIVER. DUE TO LOW RIVER LEVELS AT THE PRESENT TIME...MOST OF THIS
RAIN SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN RIVER BANKS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/BGM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV/KL
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM









000
FXUS61 KALY 192348
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
745 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LOOSEN ITS GRIP ACROSS THE REGION AS OUR WEATHER
WILL TURN UNSETTLED FOR THE LATER HALF OF THIS WEEK. A SLOW MOVING
AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT OUR REGION
WEDNESDAY WITH CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. THE BEST CHANCES
FOR WET WEATHER WILL BE ALONG AND WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WESTERN AND
CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY AND CATSKILLS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 745 PM EDT...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUED TO PROVIDE FINE
WEATHER...WITH JUST A FEW PATCHES OF CIRRUS NEAR US...AND
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 70S...DEWPOINTS AROUND 50...MAKING FOR
A COMFORTABLE EVENING.

FOR THIS UPDATE...ONLY VERY MINOR TWEAKING OF THE HOURLY GRIDS.

UPSTREAM...MAINLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG A DEWPOINT BOUNDARY WAS
SLOWLY ADVECTING PAST THE I81 CORRIDOR. THIS WILL BE THE MAIN
CHALLENGE TO THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT.

IT NOW APPEARS THAT HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATER THIS
EVENING...AND PERHAPS WE THIN OUT OVERNIGHT FOR AWHILE. IF THAT
HAPPENS...IT IS A GOOD BET WE WILL HAVE SOME PATCHY FOG AS HIGHER
DEWPOINTS WERE ADVECTING IN FROM THE WEST AS WELL.

EVEN IF THE SKY REMAINS MAINLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT...THE HIGHER
DEWPOINTS SHOULD ALLOW OVERNIGHT LOWS TO BE A LITTLE MILDER TONIGHT
WITH MAINLY 50S...SOME UPPER 40S INTO THE DACKS. NO CHANGES WERE
MADE TO THE OVERNIGHT LOWS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD OF WEATHER WILL BE UNDER INCREASING
CLOUD COVER...HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND THE RAISING THE
PROBABILITIES FOR SHOWERS. THE 12Z MODEL SUITE AND ENSEMBLES ARE A
LITTLE HIGHER WITH THE OVERALL QPF FIELD ALONG AND WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER AS PWATS CLIMB 1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.
THE CULPRIT WAS THE UPPER LOW SEEN IN THE H2O VAPOR LOOP OVER THE
U.P. OF MI. AS THIS LOW TRACKS FURTHER EAST...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER
NORTHEAST CANADA STRENGTHENS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SQUEEZE BETWEEN
THIS UPPER LOW AND THE SURFACE RIDGE REATTEMPTING TO BUILD
SOUTHWESTWARD.

AS THE CASE LEADING INTO THIS FORECAST...THE BEST MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND ISENTROPIC LIFT REMAIN ALONG OR WEST OF THE HUDSON
RIVER. AS LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES THROUGH
THURSDAY...FAVORABLE UPSLOPE CONDITIONS FOR THE CATSKILLS AND
DACKS MAY EXPERIENCE ENHANCE RAINFALL. WE WILL PLACE THESE AREAS
INTO LIKELY POPS BEGINNING LATER WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING INTO ALL
OF THURSDAY. QPF AMOUNTS COULD APPROACH ONE INCH BUT FLOOD
CONCERNS ARE LOW AT THIS TIME PER COORDINATION WITH NERFC.

AS FOR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...WHILE LAPSE RATES ARE NOT TOO
CONDUCIVE...THE H850 LI/S /AKA SHOWALTER INDEX/ DROP TO OR JUST
BELOW 0C OVER MOST OF EASTERN NY. THIS WILL WARRANT THE
CONTINUATION WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...MOS GUIDANCE IS RATHER
CLOSE WITH AVERAGE HIGHS INTO THE MID-UPPER 70S AND SOME LOWER 80S
IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY WELL INTO
THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT OUR AREA MIGHT BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN A
CUTOFF LOW TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST...AND UPPER LATITUDE MID LEVEL
RIDGE TO OUR NORTH THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS SCENARIO
MIGHT KEEP OUR AREA DRY WITH ONLY SOME CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME. THE
CANADIAN MODEL DOES BRING SOME SHOWERS INTO OUR REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BUT IS REALLY NOT SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST EUROPEAN
AND GFS EXTENDED MODEL GUIDANCE.

WE HAVE FOLLOWED WPC/S THINKING AND HAVE KEPT OUR AREA RAINFREE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE
SEASONABLE...WITH HIGHS 75-80 IN THE VALLEYS...70-75 HIGHER TERRAIN
EACH DAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOKS TO BE MAINLY IN THE 50S...UPPER 50S
LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO AVIATION WEATHER RELATED PROBLEM THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING.
HOWEVER...SOME PATCHY IFR MIST (2SM BR) MIGHT FOR AT KGFL STARTING
AROUND 04Z. WE HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR THAT TO HAPPEN.

THE CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES LOOK TO SLOWLY INCREASE INTO THE LOWER
50S OVERNIGHT WHILE A MAINLY CLEAR SKY COULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
EASILY FALL BELOW THESE THRESHOLD AT KGFL AND KPSF. WE HAVE GONE
WITH PREVAILING IFR MIST (2SM BR) AT KGFL AFTER 06Z AND AFTER 08Z AT
KPSF.

AT THE OTHER TWO SITES...KPOU AND KALB PROBABLY NO REAL FOG
ISSUES...ESPECIALLY IF SOME LOWER CLOUDS FORM...WHICH THEY MIGHT AT
KPOU. THESE LOWER CLOUDS LOOK TO REMAIN AT OR JUST ABOVE THE MVFR
STATUS...FOR NOW WE WENT ABOVE MVFR AT KPOU. AT KALB...WE PLACED
MIFG IN THE TAF TO REFLECT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME FOG.

AFTER ANY POSSIBLE LOW CLOUDS/FOG BURN OFF BETWEEN
11Z-13Z/WED...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN...WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS
WITH BASES GENERALLY BETWEEN 4000-6000 FT AGL INTO THE AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS WILL ENCROACH THE TAF SITES FROM NW TO SE...SO PLACED VCSH
IN THE TAFS...STARTING AT 17Z AT KGFL/18Z KALB/19Z KPSF AND 21Z
KPOU. AT THIS POINT SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON APPEAR UNLIKELY
TO DROP CONDITIONS TO MVFR OR IFR.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM TONIGHT...BECOMING S-SE
5-10KTS ON WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WED NT - THU NT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRI-SUN: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ANOTHER DRY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. THE
WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A SLOW
MOVING AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND WESTERN
AND CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVER TOWARD 90 AND NEAR 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT. MINIMUM VALUES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
50S PERCENTILE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS AT THIS TIME.
THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A
SLOW MOVING AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION. THE
HIGH QPF AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND WESTERN
AND CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY INCLUDING THE CATSKILLS. MODEL QPF HAS
INCREASE WITH UP TO ONE INCH BASIN AVERAGE WEST OF THE HUDSON
RIVER. DUE TO LOW RIVER LEVELS AT THE PRESENT TIME...MOST OF THIS
RAIN SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN RIVER BANKS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/BGM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV/KL
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM









000
FXUS61 KOKX 192344
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
744 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION INTO WEDNESDAY...THEN
SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AT
THE END OF THE WEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
FOR THE WEEKEND...THEN SLOWLY SLIDES OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

COULD SEE A FEW CLOUDS THIS EVENING WITH A PASSING 700-500 HPA
SHORTWAVE...THEN SHOULD SEE SKC AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT SETTING
THE STAGE FOR PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG IN THE MORE LIKELY AREAS OF
INLAND VALLEYS AND THE PINE BARRENS OF LONG ISLAND. VSBY IN THESE
AREAS COULD BE RATHER LOW (< 1/4 MI) AT SUNRISE.

TEMP SENSOR AT KLDJ (LINDEN) HAS BEEN REPORTED FOR FAA MAINTENANCE
(TOO WARM).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WHILE SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE NORTHEAST -
AN UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE APPROACH (THE SHORT WAVE
PASSING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT).

BASED ON 09Z SREF AND 12Z DETERMINISTIC RUNS...KEEPING IT DRY
EXCEPT FOR ORANGE COUNTY AFT MIDNIGHT.

SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER WE`LL HAVE TOMORROW...BUT
AM THINKING CIRRUS WOULD BE THIN - THUS MOSTLY SUNNY.

BLENDED MOS USED FOR TEMPS WITH LITTLE SPREAD SEEN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH SETS UP ALONG THE NORTHEAST AS SFC HIGH PRES
BUILDS OVER THE REGION. SEVERAL STRONG SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE
AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...POSSIBLY
TOUCHING OFF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME. BEST
CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN ZONES.

UPPER LEVEL LOW PRES THEN MOVES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS
AND MEANDERS THERE THIS WEEKEND AS SFC HIGH PRES STRENGTHENS OVER
THE AREA BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE EARLY IN THE NEW WEEK. DRY CONDITIONS
ON TAP FROM SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
GENERALLY DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA.

VFR THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH VSBYS BELOW 6SM PROBABLY DEVELOPING AT
KGON AND POSSIBLY KSWF LATE.

LIGHT SE-S FLOW THIS EVENING SHOULD GO LIGHT/VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AND
THEN EASTERLY AGAIN BY WED MORNING. EXPECT REPEAT PERFORMANCE OF
SE-S SEA BREEZES AT COASTAL TERMINALS LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THU THROUGH SUN...
.THU NIGHT...SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE ACROSS NYC METRO AND LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY TERMINALS.
.FRI-SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST CHANGES IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK...AND POSSIBLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A PERSISTENT EASTERLY
FLOW WILL DEVELOP FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO
20 KT. SEAS ON THE OCEAN MAY BUILD CLOSE TO 5 FT THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIP THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. DRY
CONDITIONS ON TAP THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/TONGUE
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/TONGUE
SHORT TERM...TONGUE
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...JC/GOODMAN
MARINE...MALOIT/TONGUE/MPS
HYDROLOGY...TONGUE




000
FXUS61 KBOX 192306
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
706 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PATTERN STARTS TO BECOME A BIT MORE
UNSETTLED EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
7 PM UPDATE...SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO END A
BEAUTIFUL DAY. SEABREEZES CONTINUE BUT ARE BECOMING LIGHTER AND
SHOULD BECOME EITHER LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR SHIFT BACK TO THE
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
TEMPERATURE GRIDS...OTHERWISE THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

TONIGHT...

GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT OF WEAK ENHANCEMENT OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AS
IT PUSHES E ACROSS THE NE-CONUS. WILL KEEP WITH A DRY FORECAST WITH
PREVAILING SUBSIDENCE ACCOMPANIED BY HIGH PRESSURE UNDER LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS.

WATCHING THE CLOUD DECK PRESENTLY OVER PA/NY. THIS SHOULD SLOWLY
ADVECT E WITH THE W/SW-FLOW REARWARD OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE. HIGH
CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOWER AND
THICKER CLOUDS INTO W NEW ENGLAND BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS CAN
RESULT IN COMPLICATIONS IN BOTH OVERNIGHT LOWS AND DENSE FOG
POTENTIAL AND COULD TOTALLY RUIN THE FORECAST.

YET ALTOGETHER...NOTING CLOUDS ALONG WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN NEW ENGLAND OF ANOTHER
NIGHT OF EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING. CONSIDERING TUESDAY
MORNING LOWS...WEDNESDAY MORNING LOWS SHOULD BE AROUND THE UPPER-
40S ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE AREAS WHICH RADIATE WELL. ELSEWHERE LOWS
AROUND THE MID-50S WITH URBAN CENTERS SLIGHTLY WARMER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY...

THREE BLIND MICE? SURE SEEMS LIKE IT. THE NEIGHBORING OF THE GREAT
LAKES...NE-CANADA...AND NW-ATLANTIC LOWS LENDS TO A STRENGTHENING OF
THE SURFACE LABRADOR HIGH AND MID-LEVEL RIDGE ALONG WITH PERSISTING
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR. SHOULD BE A QUIET DAY WEATHER-WISE.

MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE THE CONTINUED ENCROACHMENT OF CLOUDS INTO NEW
ENGLAND...THE THICKEST OF WHICH WILL BE INTO THE CT-RIVER VALLEY.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS...BUT WILL KEEP W OF THE BERKSHIRES BASED
ON GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT OF CONTINUED ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR AS FAR W
AS THE HUDSON-RIVER VALLEY. BEST ISENTROPIC MOTIONS / LIFT PARENT
WITH MOISTURE AVAILABILITY REMAIN W ACROSS NY/PA COLLOCATED WITH THE
SURFACE WARM FRONT.

COMBINATION OF BOTH A THERMAL AND PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD RESULT IN
AN ONSHORE SEA-BREEZE FLOW BY MID-MORNING. WARMER AIRMASS FILTERING
INTO THE REGION ALOFT COUPLED WITH A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER
SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS AROUND THE
LOW-80S BENEATH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

TROUGHING PARENT TO THE GREAT LAKES LOW RENEWS LOW PRESSURE ALONG
THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND OUT TO SEA.
SUBSEQUENT FALLING HEIGHTS AS THE NE-CANADA LOW LIFTING NE RESULTS
IN THE GREAT LAKES CLOSED LOW AND ATTENDANT WARM-FRONT TO WOBBLE
INTO THE NE-CONUS. WILL SEE CLOUDS INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION
ALLOWING THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO THE CT-RIVER VALLEY.

EVALUATING MODEL FIELDS...THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT OF SUBSIDENCE AND
LOW- TO MID-LEVEL DRY AIR ACROSS MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND. EVALUATING
ISENTROPIC FLOW AND FORCED ASCENT...ACTIVITY REMAINS ACROSS AND W OF
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. DECENT SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND ENHANCED
ASCENT COUPLED WITH A S/SW COMPONENT OF ISENTROPIC FLOW KEEPS THE
MAJORITY OF WET-WEATHER OUT OF OUR AREA. IN FACT...EVALUATING THETAE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD EXHIBITS EROSION AS IT ENCOUNTERS
MOISTURE-DEPRIVED DRIER AIR TO THE E.

ANOTHER EVENING OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW. WITH THE ENCROACHMENT OF
THE GREAT LAKES SYSTEM AS A WHOLE...HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE OF COOLEST
NIGHTTIME LOWS ACROSS E/SE NEW ENGLAND...WHEREAS THICKENING CLOUDS
OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND WILL KEEP THINGS MILD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
* UNCERTAINTY INCREASES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM. THE GFS
HAS COME MORE IN LINE BOTH WITH TODAYS ECMWF AS WELL AS YESTERDAYS
ECMWF RUN IN KEEPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS COMING OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST WELL EAST OF OUR SHORE LINE. A PERSISTENT UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY EAST...
MOVING OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PUSHES
NORTHWARD FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLER...
LESS SEASONABLE WEATHER WHILE HIGH PRESSURE IN QUEBEC WILL KEEP
THINGS RELATIVELY DRY. THIS HIGH WILL SINK SOUTH THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...EVENTUALLY DROPPING SOUTH OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND RETURNING US TO A MORE WESTERLY FLOW. LOW
PRESSURE IN ONTARIO MAY EVENTUALLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO QUEBEC
BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY. DEPENDING ON AVAILABLE MOISTURE THIS MAY INITIATE A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

BEYOND THIS WEEKEND...THE FORECAST HERE WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON THE
EVOLUTION OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. HOW
QUICKLY THE TROUGH PUSHES EAST VARIES GREATLY BY MODEL SO EXPECT A
GREATER THAN NORMAL POTENTIAL FOR AN EVER EVOLVING FORECAST FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

00Z UPDATE...

MAINLY VFR. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS ALONG WITH PATCHY MVFR-IFR FOG
OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SEABREEZE LIKELY AGAIN
WEDNESDAY. LOW PROBABILITY OF MVFR-IFR CIGS ACROSS SE MA LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY
MVFR/IFR FOG EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER. PREVAILING E-WINDS. GUSTS OF 10-15 KTS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SE-WATERS...AND PERHAPS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
NEAR-SHORE AS THE SEA-BREEZE DEVELOPS AROUND 10-11 AM WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION.
LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY OVERNIGHT FOG LIMITING VISIBILITIES.
SEAS MAY INCREASE ON THE OUTER WATERS THIS WEEKEND AS AN OCEAN
STORM PASSES WELL EAST OF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...RLG/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...RLG/SIPPRELL
MARINE...RLG/SIPPRELL




000
FXUS61 KBOX 192306
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
706 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PATTERN STARTS TO BECOME A BIT MORE
UNSETTLED EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
7 PM UPDATE...SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO END A
BEAUTIFUL DAY. SEABREEZES CONTINUE BUT ARE BECOMING LIGHTER AND
SHOULD BECOME EITHER LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR SHIFT BACK TO THE
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
TEMPERATURE GRIDS...OTHERWISE THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

TONIGHT...

GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT OF WEAK ENHANCEMENT OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AS
IT PUSHES E ACROSS THE NE-CONUS. WILL KEEP WITH A DRY FORECAST WITH
PREVAILING SUBSIDENCE ACCOMPANIED BY HIGH PRESSURE UNDER LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS.

WATCHING THE CLOUD DECK PRESENTLY OVER PA/NY. THIS SHOULD SLOWLY
ADVECT E WITH THE W/SW-FLOW REARWARD OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE. HIGH
CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOWER AND
THICKER CLOUDS INTO W NEW ENGLAND BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS CAN
RESULT IN COMPLICATIONS IN BOTH OVERNIGHT LOWS AND DENSE FOG
POTENTIAL AND COULD TOTALLY RUIN THE FORECAST.

YET ALTOGETHER...NOTING CLOUDS ALONG WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN NEW ENGLAND OF ANOTHER
NIGHT OF EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING. CONSIDERING TUESDAY
MORNING LOWS...WEDNESDAY MORNING LOWS SHOULD BE AROUND THE UPPER-
40S ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE AREAS WHICH RADIATE WELL. ELSEWHERE LOWS
AROUND THE MID-50S WITH URBAN CENTERS SLIGHTLY WARMER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY...

THREE BLIND MICE? SURE SEEMS LIKE IT. THE NEIGHBORING OF THE GREAT
LAKES...NE-CANADA...AND NW-ATLANTIC LOWS LENDS TO A STRENGTHENING OF
THE SURFACE LABRADOR HIGH AND MID-LEVEL RIDGE ALONG WITH PERSISTING
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR. SHOULD BE A QUIET DAY WEATHER-WISE.

MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE THE CONTINUED ENCROACHMENT OF CLOUDS INTO NEW
ENGLAND...THE THICKEST OF WHICH WILL BE INTO THE CT-RIVER VALLEY.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS...BUT WILL KEEP W OF THE BERKSHIRES BASED
ON GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT OF CONTINUED ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR AS FAR W
AS THE HUDSON-RIVER VALLEY. BEST ISENTROPIC MOTIONS / LIFT PARENT
WITH MOISTURE AVAILABILITY REMAIN W ACROSS NY/PA COLLOCATED WITH THE
SURFACE WARM FRONT.

COMBINATION OF BOTH A THERMAL AND PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD RESULT IN
AN ONSHORE SEA-BREEZE FLOW BY MID-MORNING. WARMER AIRMASS FILTERING
INTO THE REGION ALOFT COUPLED WITH A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER
SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS AROUND THE
LOW-80S BENEATH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

TROUGHING PARENT TO THE GREAT LAKES LOW RENEWS LOW PRESSURE ALONG
THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND OUT TO SEA.
SUBSEQUENT FALLING HEIGHTS AS THE NE-CANADA LOW LIFTING NE RESULTS
IN THE GREAT LAKES CLOSED LOW AND ATTENDANT WARM-FRONT TO WOBBLE
INTO THE NE-CONUS. WILL SEE CLOUDS INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION
ALLOWING THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO THE CT-RIVER VALLEY.

EVALUATING MODEL FIELDS...THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT OF SUBSIDENCE AND
LOW- TO MID-LEVEL DRY AIR ACROSS MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND. EVALUATING
ISENTROPIC FLOW AND FORCED ASCENT...ACTIVITY REMAINS ACROSS AND W OF
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. DECENT SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND ENHANCED
ASCENT COUPLED WITH A S/SW COMPONENT OF ISENTROPIC FLOW KEEPS THE
MAJORITY OF WET-WEATHER OUT OF OUR AREA. IN FACT...EVALUATING THETAE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD EXHIBITS EROSION AS IT ENCOUNTERS
MOISTURE-DEPRIVED DRIER AIR TO THE E.

ANOTHER EVENING OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW. WITH THE ENCROACHMENT OF
THE GREAT LAKES SYSTEM AS A WHOLE...HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE OF COOLEST
NIGHTTIME LOWS ACROSS E/SE NEW ENGLAND...WHEREAS THICKENING CLOUDS
OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND WILL KEEP THINGS MILD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
* UNCERTAINTY INCREASES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM. THE GFS
HAS COME MORE IN LINE BOTH WITH TODAYS ECMWF AS WELL AS YESTERDAYS
ECMWF RUN IN KEEPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS COMING OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST WELL EAST OF OUR SHORE LINE. A PERSISTENT UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY EAST...
MOVING OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PUSHES
NORTHWARD FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLER...
LESS SEASONABLE WEATHER WHILE HIGH PRESSURE IN QUEBEC WILL KEEP
THINGS RELATIVELY DRY. THIS HIGH WILL SINK SOUTH THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...EVENTUALLY DROPPING SOUTH OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND RETURNING US TO A MORE WESTERLY FLOW. LOW
PRESSURE IN ONTARIO MAY EVENTUALLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO QUEBEC
BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY. DEPENDING ON AVAILABLE MOISTURE THIS MAY INITIATE A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

BEYOND THIS WEEKEND...THE FORECAST HERE WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON THE
EVOLUTION OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. HOW
QUICKLY THE TROUGH PUSHES EAST VARIES GREATLY BY MODEL SO EXPECT A
GREATER THAN NORMAL POTENTIAL FOR AN EVER EVOLVING FORECAST FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

00Z UPDATE...

MAINLY VFR. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS ALONG WITH PATCHY MVFR-IFR FOG
OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SEABREEZE LIKELY AGAIN
WEDNESDAY. LOW PROBABILITY OF MVFR-IFR CIGS ACROSS SE MA LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY
MVFR/IFR FOG EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER. PREVAILING E-WINDS. GUSTS OF 10-15 KTS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SE-WATERS...AND PERHAPS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
NEAR-SHORE AS THE SEA-BREEZE DEVELOPS AROUND 10-11 AM WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION.
LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY OVERNIGHT FOG LIMITING VISIBILITIES.
SEAS MAY INCREASE ON THE OUTER WATERS THIS WEEKEND AS AN OCEAN
STORM PASSES WELL EAST OF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...RLG/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...RLG/SIPPRELL
MARINE...RLG/SIPPRELL



000
FXUS61 KALY 192001
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
401 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LOOSEN ITS GRIP ACROSS THE REGION AS OUR WEATHER
WILL TURN UNSETTLED FOR THE LATER HALF OF THIS WEEK. A SLOW MOVING
AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT OUR REGION
WEDNESDAY WITH CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. THE BEST CHANCES
FOR WET WEATHER WILL BE ALONG AND WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND WESTERN
AND CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY AND CATSKILLS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
1014MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR KBTV PROVIDING A DELIGHTFUL MID AUGUST
DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. UPSTREAM...LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS
ALONG A DEWPOINT BOUNDARY WAS SLOWLY ADVECTING TOWARD THE I81
CORRIDOR. THIS WILL BE THE MAIN CHALLENGE TO THE FORECAST
OVERNIGHT. WHILE SKIES WILL BE CLEAR INTO THIS EVENING...LATEST
NCEP MODEL SUITE AND HOURLY UPDATED RAP13 LOW LEVEL RH FIELDS
/H925-H800/ HAVE A RATHER HIGH SIGNAL OF THESE CLOUDS ADVECTING
INTO EASTERN NY OVERNIGHT. THEN WITH SOME UPSLOPE LATER
TONIGHT...THESE CLOUDS ADVECT/DEVELOP INTO OUR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
COUNTIES /WITH THE EXCEPTION OF EASTERN WINDHAM COUNTY/. SO
OVERALL TREND FOR TONIGHT WILL BE THE GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER FROM WEST TO EAST.

AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS SLOWLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT...AND INITIAL CLEAR
SKIES...THE OPPORTUNITY EXISTS FOR PATCHY FOG FORMATION ONCE
AGAIN. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A LITTLE MILDER TONIGHT WITH MAINLY
50S...SOME UPPER 40S INTO THE DACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD OF WEATHER WILL BE UNDER INCREASING
CLOUD COVER...HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND THE RAISING THE PROBABILITIES
FOR SHOWERS. THE 12Z MODEL SUITE AND ENSEMBLES ARE A LITTLE HIGHER
WITH THE OVERALL QPF FIELD ALONG AND WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER AS
PWATS CLIMB 1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THE CULPRIT WAS THE
UPPER LOW SEEN IN THE H2O VAPOR LOOP OVER THE U.P. OF MI. AS THIS
LOW TRACKS FURTHER EAST...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER NORTHEAST CANADA
STRENGTHENS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SQUEEZE BETWEEN THIS UPPER LOW
AND THE SURFACE RIDGE REATTEMPTING TO BUILD SOUTHWESTWARD.

AS THE CASE LEADING INTO THIS FORECAST...THE BEST MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND ISENTROPIC LIFT REMAIN ALONG OR WEST OF THE HUDSON
RIVER. AS LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES THROUGH
THURSDAY...FAVORABLE UPSLOPE CONDITIONS FOR THE CATSKILLS AND
DACKS MAY EXPERIENCE ENHANCE RAINFALL. WE WILL PLACE THESE AREAS
INTO LIKELY POPS BEGINNING LATER WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING INTO ALL
OF THURSDAY. QPF AMOUNTS COULD APPROACH ONE INCH BUT FLOOD
CONCERNS ARE LOW AT THIS TIME PER COORDINATION WITH NERFC.

AS FOR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...WHILE LAPSE RATES ARE NOT TOO
CONDUCIVE...THE H850 LI/S /AKA SHOWALTER INDEX/ DROP TO OR JUST
BELOW 0C OVER MOST OF EASTERN NY. THIS WILL WARRANT THE
CONTINUATION WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...MOS GUIDANCE IS RATHER
CLOSE WITH AVERAGE HIGHS INTO THE MID-UPPER 70S AND SOME LOWER 80S
IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY WELL INTO
THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT OUR AREA MIGHT BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN A
CUTOFF LOW TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST...AND UPPER LATITUDE MID LEVEL
RIDGE TO OUR NORTH THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS SCENARIO
MIGHT KEEP OUR AREA DRY WITH ONLY SOME CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME. THE
CANADIAN MODEL DOES BRING SOME SHOWERS INTO OUR REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BUT IS REALLY NOT SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST EUROPEAN
AND GFS EXTENDED MODEL GUIDANCE.

WE HAVE FOLLOWED WPC/S THINKING AND HAVE KEPT OUR AREA RAINFREE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE
SEASONABLE...WITH HIGHS 75-80 IN THE VALLEYS...70-75 HIGHER TERRAIN
EACH DAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOKS TO BE MAINLY IN THE 50S...UPPER 50S
LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON WILL
SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT...AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION ON WEDNESDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
THEREAFTER...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF SOME GROUND FOG
DEVELOPMENT...PARTICULARLY AT KGFL AND KPSF...BETWEEN 07Z-11Z/WED.
HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS DEVELOP AND/OR
PERSIST FOR A PERIOD OVERNIGHT...WHICH COULD MITIGATE THE EXTENT OF
FOG DEVELOPMENT. AT THIS TIME...HAVE ONLY INCLUDED MENTION OF MVFR
CONDITIONS AT THESE TAF SITES...AND VFR ELSEWHERE. SHOULD THE MID
LEVEL CLOUDS FAIL TO FORM OR BE LESS EXTENSIVE THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST...THEN GROUND FOG AND ASSOCIATED IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL
BECOME MORE PROBABLE.

AFTER ANY POSSIBLE LOW CLOUDS/FOG BURN OFF BETWEEN
11Z-13Z/WED...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN...WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS
WITH BASES GENERALLY BETWEEN 4000-6000 FT AGL.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE SE THIS AFTERNOON AT 5-10
KT...THEN BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE TO CALM ONCE AGAIN AROUND OR JUST
AFTER SUNSET. WINDS WILL BECOME SE TO S BY MID MORNING WED...AT 5-10
KT.

OUTLOOK...

WED NT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU-THU NT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRI-SUN: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ANOTHER DRY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. THE
WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A SLOW
MOVING AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND WESTERN
AND CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVER TOWARD 90 AND NEAR 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT. MINIMUM VALUES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
50S PERCENTILE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS AT THIS TIME.
THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A
SLOW MOVING AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION. THE
HIGH QPF AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND WESTERN
AND CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY INCLUDING THE CATSKILLS. MODEL QPF HAS
INCREASE WITH UP TO ONE INCH BASIN AVERAGE WEST OF THE HUDSON
RIVER. DUE TO LOW RIVER LEVELS AT THE PRESENT TIME...MOST OF THIS
RAIN SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN RIVER BANKS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...

HERE ARE THE AVERAGE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES FOR AUGUST
THROUGH THE 18TH...
ALBANY NY: -2.0 DEGREES
GLENS FALLS NY: -0.9 DEGREES
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: -2.4 DEGREES
BENNINGTON VT: -2.8 DEGREES
PITTSFIELD MA: -3.5 DEGREES

THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURE FOR ALBANY THUS FAR THIS SUMMER HAS BEEN
91 DEGREES.  WE HAVE YET TO REACH 90 IN THE MONTH OF AUGUST.

FOR MORE CLIMATE INFORMATION CHECK OUT OUR CLIMATE PAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY/CLIMATE

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM


FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY





000
FXUS61 KALY 192001
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
401 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LOOSEN ITS GRIP ACROSS THE REGION AS OUR WEATHER
WILL TURN UNSETTLED FOR THE LATER HALF OF THIS WEEK. A SLOW MOVING
AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT OUR REGION
WEDNESDAY WITH CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. THE BEST CHANCES
FOR WET WEATHER WILL BE ALONG AND WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND WESTERN
AND CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY AND CATSKILLS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
1014MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR KBTV PROVIDING A DELIGHTFUL MID AUGUST
DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. UPSTREAM...LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS
ALONG A DEWPOINT BOUNDARY WAS SLOWLY ADVECTING TOWARD THE I81
CORRIDOR. THIS WILL BE THE MAIN CHALLENGE TO THE FORECAST
OVERNIGHT. WHILE SKIES WILL BE CLEAR INTO THIS EVENING...LATEST
NCEP MODEL SUITE AND HOURLY UPDATED RAP13 LOW LEVEL RH FIELDS
/H925-H800/ HAVE A RATHER HIGH SIGNAL OF THESE CLOUDS ADVECTING
INTO EASTERN NY OVERNIGHT. THEN WITH SOME UPSLOPE LATER
TONIGHT...THESE CLOUDS ADVECT/DEVELOP INTO OUR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
COUNTIES /WITH THE EXCEPTION OF EASTERN WINDHAM COUNTY/. SO
OVERALL TREND FOR TONIGHT WILL BE THE GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER FROM WEST TO EAST.

AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS SLOWLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT...AND INITIAL CLEAR
SKIES...THE OPPORTUNITY EXISTS FOR PATCHY FOG FORMATION ONCE
AGAIN. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A LITTLE MILDER TONIGHT WITH MAINLY
50S...SOME UPPER 40S INTO THE DACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD OF WEATHER WILL BE UNDER INCREASING
CLOUD COVER...HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND THE RAISING THE PROBABILITIES
FOR SHOWERS. THE 12Z MODEL SUITE AND ENSEMBLES ARE A LITTLE HIGHER
WITH THE OVERALL QPF FIELD ALONG AND WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER AS
PWATS CLIMB 1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THE CULPRIT WAS THE
UPPER LOW SEEN IN THE H2O VAPOR LOOP OVER THE U.P. OF MI. AS THIS
LOW TRACKS FURTHER EAST...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER NORTHEAST CANADA
STRENGTHENS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SQUEEZE BETWEEN THIS UPPER LOW
AND THE SURFACE RIDGE REATTEMPTING TO BUILD SOUTHWESTWARD.

AS THE CASE LEADING INTO THIS FORECAST...THE BEST MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND ISENTROPIC LIFT REMAIN ALONG OR WEST OF THE HUDSON
RIVER. AS LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES THROUGH
THURSDAY...FAVORABLE UPSLOPE CONDITIONS FOR THE CATSKILLS AND
DACKS MAY EXPERIENCE ENHANCE RAINFALL. WE WILL PLACE THESE AREAS
INTO LIKELY POPS BEGINNING LATER WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING INTO ALL
OF THURSDAY. QPF AMOUNTS COULD APPROACH ONE INCH BUT FLOOD
CONCERNS ARE LOW AT THIS TIME PER COORDINATION WITH NERFC.

AS FOR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...WHILE LAPSE RATES ARE NOT TOO
CONDUCIVE...THE H850 LI/S /AKA SHOWALTER INDEX/ DROP TO OR JUST
BELOW 0C OVER MOST OF EASTERN NY. THIS WILL WARRANT THE
CONTINUATION WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...MOS GUIDANCE IS RATHER
CLOSE WITH AVERAGE HIGHS INTO THE MID-UPPER 70S AND SOME LOWER 80S
IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY WELL INTO
THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT OUR AREA MIGHT BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN A
CUTOFF LOW TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST...AND UPPER LATITUDE MID LEVEL
RIDGE TO OUR NORTH THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS SCENARIO
MIGHT KEEP OUR AREA DRY WITH ONLY SOME CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME. THE
CANADIAN MODEL DOES BRING SOME SHOWERS INTO OUR REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BUT IS REALLY NOT SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST EUROPEAN
AND GFS EXTENDED MODEL GUIDANCE.

WE HAVE FOLLOWED WPC/S THINKING AND HAVE KEPT OUR AREA RAINFREE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE
SEASONABLE...WITH HIGHS 75-80 IN THE VALLEYS...70-75 HIGHER TERRAIN
EACH DAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOKS TO BE MAINLY IN THE 50S...UPPER 50S
LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON WILL
SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT...AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION ON WEDNESDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
THEREAFTER...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF SOME GROUND FOG
DEVELOPMENT...PARTICULARLY AT KGFL AND KPSF...BETWEEN 07Z-11Z/WED.
HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS DEVELOP AND/OR
PERSIST FOR A PERIOD OVERNIGHT...WHICH COULD MITIGATE THE EXTENT OF
FOG DEVELOPMENT. AT THIS TIME...HAVE ONLY INCLUDED MENTION OF MVFR
CONDITIONS AT THESE TAF SITES...AND VFR ELSEWHERE. SHOULD THE MID
LEVEL CLOUDS FAIL TO FORM OR BE LESS EXTENSIVE THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST...THEN GROUND FOG AND ASSOCIATED IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL
BECOME MORE PROBABLE.

AFTER ANY POSSIBLE LOW CLOUDS/FOG BURN OFF BETWEEN
11Z-13Z/WED...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN...WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS
WITH BASES GENERALLY BETWEEN 4000-6000 FT AGL.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE SE THIS AFTERNOON AT 5-10
KT...THEN BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE TO CALM ONCE AGAIN AROUND OR JUST
AFTER SUNSET. WINDS WILL BECOME SE TO S BY MID MORNING WED...AT 5-10
KT.

OUTLOOK...

WED NT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU-THU NT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRI-SUN: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ANOTHER DRY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. THE
WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A SLOW
MOVING AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND WESTERN
AND CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVER TOWARD 90 AND NEAR 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT. MINIMUM VALUES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
50S PERCENTILE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS AT THIS TIME.
THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A
SLOW MOVING AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION. THE
HIGH QPF AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND WESTERN
AND CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY INCLUDING THE CATSKILLS. MODEL QPF HAS
INCREASE WITH UP TO ONE INCH BASIN AVERAGE WEST OF THE HUDSON
RIVER. DUE TO LOW RIVER LEVELS AT THE PRESENT TIME...MOST OF THIS
RAIN SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN RIVER BANKS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...

HERE ARE THE AVERAGE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES FOR AUGUST
THROUGH THE 18TH...
ALBANY NY: -2.0 DEGREES
GLENS FALLS NY: -0.9 DEGREES
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: -2.4 DEGREES
BENNINGTON VT: -2.8 DEGREES
PITTSFIELD MA: -3.5 DEGREES

THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURE FOR ALBANY THUS FAR THIS SUMMER HAS BEEN
91 DEGREES.  WE HAVE YET TO REACH 90 IN THE MONTH OF AUGUST.

FOR MORE CLIMATE INFORMATION CHECK OUT OUR CLIMATE PAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY/CLIMATE

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM


FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 191921
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
321 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PATTERN STARTS TO BECOME A BIT MORE
UNSETTLED EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

330 PM UPDATE...

FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. SEA-BREEZES PROGRESSING INTO INTERIOR
NEW ENGLAND SHOULD SLOW IN THEIR MOMENTUM AS DAYTIME HEATING
CONCLUDES. FEW TO SCATTERED PANCAKE CUMULUS UP AROUND 5 KFT SHOULD
DISSIPATE.

TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT INTO THE LOW-80S FOR A FEW SELECT AREAS
/LOWER CT-VALLEY AND INTERIOR E-MA JUST W OF THE SEA-BREEZE/.
VALUES DROPPING AS WE GO INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

TONIGHT...

GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT OF WEAK ENHANCEMENT OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AS
IT PUSHES E ACROSS THE NE-CONUS. WILL KEEP WITH A DRY FORECAST WITH
PREVAILING SUBSIDENCE ACCOMPANIED BY HIGH PRESSURE UNDER LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS.

WATCHING THE CLOUD DECK PRESENTLY OVER PA/NY. THIS SHOULD SLOWLY
ADVECT E WITH THE W/SW-FLOW REARWARD OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE. HIGH
CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOWER AND
THICKER CLOUDS INTO W NEW ENGLAND BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS CAN
RESULT IN COMPLICATIONS IN BOTH OVERNIGHT LOWS AND DENSE FOG
POTENTIAL AND COULD TOTALLY RUIN THE FORECAST.

YET ALTOGETHER...NOTING CLOUDS ALONG WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN NEW ENGLAND OF ANOTHER
NIGHT OF EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING. CONSIDERING TUESDAY
MORNING LOWS...WEDNESDAY MORNING LOWS SHOULD BE AROUND THE UPPER-
40S ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE AREAS WHICH RADIATE WELL. ELSEWHERE LOWS
AROUND THE MID-50S WITH URBAN CENTERS SLIGHTLY WARMER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

WEDNESDAY...

THREE BLIND MICE? SURE SEEMS LIKE IT. THE NEIGHBORING OF THE GREAT
LAKES...NE-CANADA...AND NW-ATLANTIC LOWS LENDS TO A STRENGTHENING OF
THE SURFACE LABRADOR HIGH AND MID-LEVEL RIDGE ALONG WITH PERSISTING
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR. SHOULD BE A QUIET DAY WEATHER-WISE.

MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE THE CONTINUED ENCROACHMENT OF CLOUDS INTO NEW
ENGLAND...THE THICKEST OF WHICH WILL BE INTO THE CT-RIVER VALLEY.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS...BUT WILL KEEP W OF THE BERKSHIRES BASED
ON GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT OF CONTINUED ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR AS FAR W
AS THE HUDSON-RIVER VALLEY. BEST ISENTROPIC MOTIONS / LIFT PARENT
WITH MOISTURE AVAILABILITY REMAIN W ACROSS NY/PA COLLOCATED WITH THE
SURFACE WARM FRONT.

COMBINATION OF BOTH A THERMAL AND PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD RESULT IN
AN ONSHORE SEA-BREEZE FLOW BY MID-MORNING. WARMER AIRMASS FILTERING
INTO THE REGION ALOFT COUPLED WITH A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER
SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS AROUND THE
LOW-80S BENEATH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

TROUGHING PARENT TO THE GREAT LAKES LOW RENEWS LOW PRESSURE ALONG
THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND OUT TO SEA.
SUBSEQUENT FALLING HEIGHTS AS THE NE-CANADA LOW LIFTING NE RESULTS
IN THE GREAT LAKES CLOSED LOW AND ATTENDANT WARM-FRONT TO WOBBLE
INTO THE NE-CONUS. WILL SEE CLOUDS INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION
ALLOWING THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO THE CT-RIVER VALLEY.

EVALUATING MODEL FIELDS...THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT OF SUBSIDENCE AND
LOW- TO MID-LEVEL DRY AIR ACROSS MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND. EVALUATING
ISENTROPIC FLOW AND FORCED ASCENT...ACTIVITY REMAINS ACROSS AND W OF
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. DECENT SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND ENHANCED
ASCENT COUPLED WITH A S/SW COMPONENT OF ISENTROPIC FLOW KEEPS THE
MAJORITY OF WET-WEATHER OUT OF OUR AREA. IN FACT...EVALUATING THETAE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD EXHIBITS EROSION AS IT ENCOUNTERS
MOISTURE-DEPRIVED DRIER AIR TO THE E.

ANOTHER EVENING OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW. WITH THE ENCROACHMENT OF
THE GREAT LAKES SYSTEM AS A WHOLE...HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE OF COOLEST
NIGHTTIME LOWS ACROSS E/SE NEW ENGLAND...WHEREAS THICKENING CLOUDS
OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND WILL KEEP THINGS MILD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
* UNCERTAINTY INCREASES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM. THE GFS
HAS COME MORE IN LINE BOTH WITH TODAYS ECMWF AS WELL AS YESTERDAYS
ECMWF RUN IN KEEPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS COMING OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST WELL EAST OF OUR SHORE LINE. A PERSISTENT UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY EAST...
MOVING OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PUSHES
NORTHWARD FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLER...
LESS SEASONABLE WEATHER WHILE HIGH PRESSURE IN QUEBEC WILL KEEP
THINGS RELATIVELY DRY. THIS HIGH WILL SINK SOUTH THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...EVENTUALLY DROPPING SOUTH OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND RETURNING US TO A MORE WESTERLY FLOW. LOW
PRESSURE IN ONTARIO MAY EVENTUALLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO QUEBEC
BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY. DEPENDING ON AVAILABLE MOISTURE THIS MAY INITIATE A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

BEYOND THIS WEEKEND...THE FORECAST HERE WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON THE
EVOLUTION OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. HOW
QUICKLY THE TROUGH PUSHES EAST VARIES GREATLY BY MODEL SO EXPECT A
GREATER THAN NORMAL POTENTIAL FOR AN EVER EVOLVING FORECAST FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

18Z UPDATE...

VFR THROUGHOUT. PREVAILING E/SE-FLOW EXACERBATED BY ONSHORE SEA-
BREEZES AROUND 15Z. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS ALONG WITH PATCHY MVFR-
IFR FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS CLOSER TO THE MORNING HOURS.
LOW CONFIDENCE OF MVFR-IFR CIGS ACROSS SE MA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING...BUT THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY
MVFR/IFR FOG EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER. PREVAILING E-WINDS. GUSTS OF 10-15 KTS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SE-WATERS...AND PERHAPS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
NEAR-SHORE AS THE SEA-BREEZE DEVELOPS AROUND 10-11 AM WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION.
LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY OVERNIGHT FOG LIMITING VISIBILITIES.
SEAS MAY INCREASE ON THE OUTER WATERS THIS WEEKEND AS AN OCEAN
STORM PASSES WELL EAST OF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RLG/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...RLG/SIPPRELL
MARINE...RLG/SIPPRELL



000
FXUS61 KBOX 191921
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
321 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PATTERN STARTS TO BECOME A BIT MORE
UNSETTLED EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

330 PM UPDATE...

FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. SEA-BREEZES PROGRESSING INTO INTERIOR
NEW ENGLAND SHOULD SLOW IN THEIR MOMENTUM AS DAYTIME HEATING
CONCLUDES. FEW TO SCATTERED PANCAKE CUMULUS UP AROUND 5 KFT SHOULD
DISSIPATE.

TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT INTO THE LOW-80S FOR A FEW SELECT AREAS
/LOWER CT-VALLEY AND INTERIOR E-MA JUST W OF THE SEA-BREEZE/.
VALUES DROPPING AS WE GO INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

TONIGHT...

GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT OF WEAK ENHANCEMENT OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AS
IT PUSHES E ACROSS THE NE-CONUS. WILL KEEP WITH A DRY FORECAST WITH
PREVAILING SUBSIDENCE ACCOMPANIED BY HIGH PRESSURE UNDER LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS.

WATCHING THE CLOUD DECK PRESENTLY OVER PA/NY. THIS SHOULD SLOWLY
ADVECT E WITH THE W/SW-FLOW REARWARD OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE. HIGH
CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOWER AND
THICKER CLOUDS INTO W NEW ENGLAND BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS CAN
RESULT IN COMPLICATIONS IN BOTH OVERNIGHT LOWS AND DENSE FOG
POTENTIAL AND COULD TOTALLY RUIN THE FORECAST.

YET ALTOGETHER...NOTING CLOUDS ALONG WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN NEW ENGLAND OF ANOTHER
NIGHT OF EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING. CONSIDERING TUESDAY
MORNING LOWS...WEDNESDAY MORNING LOWS SHOULD BE AROUND THE UPPER-
40S ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE AREAS WHICH RADIATE WELL. ELSEWHERE LOWS
AROUND THE MID-50S WITH URBAN CENTERS SLIGHTLY WARMER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

WEDNESDAY...

THREE BLIND MICE? SURE SEEMS LIKE IT. THE NEIGHBORING OF THE GREAT
LAKES...NE-CANADA...AND NW-ATLANTIC LOWS LENDS TO A STRENGTHENING OF
THE SURFACE LABRADOR HIGH AND MID-LEVEL RIDGE ALONG WITH PERSISTING
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR. SHOULD BE A QUIET DAY WEATHER-WISE.

MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE THE CONTINUED ENCROACHMENT OF CLOUDS INTO NEW
ENGLAND...THE THICKEST OF WHICH WILL BE INTO THE CT-RIVER VALLEY.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS...BUT WILL KEEP W OF THE BERKSHIRES BASED
ON GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT OF CONTINUED ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR AS FAR W
AS THE HUDSON-RIVER VALLEY. BEST ISENTROPIC MOTIONS / LIFT PARENT
WITH MOISTURE AVAILABILITY REMAIN W ACROSS NY/PA COLLOCATED WITH THE
SURFACE WARM FRONT.

COMBINATION OF BOTH A THERMAL AND PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD RESULT IN
AN ONSHORE SEA-BREEZE FLOW BY MID-MORNING. WARMER AIRMASS FILTERING
INTO THE REGION ALOFT COUPLED WITH A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER
SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS AROUND THE
LOW-80S BENEATH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

TROUGHING PARENT TO THE GREAT LAKES LOW RENEWS LOW PRESSURE ALONG
THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND OUT TO SEA.
SUBSEQUENT FALLING HEIGHTS AS THE NE-CANADA LOW LIFTING NE RESULTS
IN THE GREAT LAKES CLOSED LOW AND ATTENDANT WARM-FRONT TO WOBBLE
INTO THE NE-CONUS. WILL SEE CLOUDS INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION
ALLOWING THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO THE CT-RIVER VALLEY.

EVALUATING MODEL FIELDS...THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT OF SUBSIDENCE AND
LOW- TO MID-LEVEL DRY AIR ACROSS MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND. EVALUATING
ISENTROPIC FLOW AND FORCED ASCENT...ACTIVITY REMAINS ACROSS AND W OF
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. DECENT SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND ENHANCED
ASCENT COUPLED WITH A S/SW COMPONENT OF ISENTROPIC FLOW KEEPS THE
MAJORITY OF WET-WEATHER OUT OF OUR AREA. IN FACT...EVALUATING THETAE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD EXHIBITS EROSION AS IT ENCOUNTERS
MOISTURE-DEPRIVED DRIER AIR TO THE E.

ANOTHER EVENING OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW. WITH THE ENCROACHMENT OF
THE GREAT LAKES SYSTEM AS A WHOLE...HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE OF COOLEST
NIGHTTIME LOWS ACROSS E/SE NEW ENGLAND...WHEREAS THICKENING CLOUDS
OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND WILL KEEP THINGS MILD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
* UNCERTAINTY INCREASES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM. THE GFS
HAS COME MORE IN LINE BOTH WITH TODAYS ECMWF AS WELL AS YESTERDAYS
ECMWF RUN IN KEEPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS COMING OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST WELL EAST OF OUR SHORE LINE. A PERSISTENT UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY EAST...
MOVING OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PUSHES
NORTHWARD FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLER...
LESS SEASONABLE WEATHER WHILE HIGH PRESSURE IN QUEBEC WILL KEEP
THINGS RELATIVELY DRY. THIS HIGH WILL SINK SOUTH THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...EVENTUALLY DROPPING SOUTH OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND RETURNING US TO A MORE WESTERLY FLOW. LOW
PRESSURE IN ONTARIO MAY EVENTUALLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO QUEBEC
BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY. DEPENDING ON AVAILABLE MOISTURE THIS MAY INITIATE A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

BEYOND THIS WEEKEND...THE FORECAST HERE WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON THE
EVOLUTION OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. HOW
QUICKLY THE TROUGH PUSHES EAST VARIES GREATLY BY MODEL SO EXPECT A
GREATER THAN NORMAL POTENTIAL FOR AN EVER EVOLVING FORECAST FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

18Z UPDATE...

VFR THROUGHOUT. PREVAILING E/SE-FLOW EXACERBATED BY ONSHORE SEA-
BREEZES AROUND 15Z. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS ALONG WITH PATCHY MVFR-
IFR FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS CLOSER TO THE MORNING HOURS.
LOW CONFIDENCE OF MVFR-IFR CIGS ACROSS SE MA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING...BUT THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY
MVFR/IFR FOG EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER. PREVAILING E-WINDS. GUSTS OF 10-15 KTS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SE-WATERS...AND PERHAPS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
NEAR-SHORE AS THE SEA-BREEZE DEVELOPS AROUND 10-11 AM WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION.
LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY OVERNIGHT FOG LIMITING VISIBILITIES.
SEAS MAY INCREASE ON THE OUTER WATERS THIS WEEKEND AS AN OCEAN
STORM PASSES WELL EAST OF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RLG/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...RLG/SIPPRELL
MARINE...RLG/SIPPRELL



000
FXUS61 KBOX 191921
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
321 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PATTERN STARTS TO BECOME A BIT MORE
UNSETTLED EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

330 PM UPDATE...

FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. SEA-BREEZES PROGRESSING INTO INTERIOR
NEW ENGLAND SHOULD SLOW IN THEIR MOMENTUM AS DAYTIME HEATING
CONCLUDES. FEW TO SCATTERED PANCAKE CUMULUS UP AROUND 5 KFT SHOULD
DISSIPATE.

TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT INTO THE LOW-80S FOR A FEW SELECT AREAS
/LOWER CT-VALLEY AND INTERIOR E-MA JUST W OF THE SEA-BREEZE/.
VALUES DROPPING AS WE GO INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

TONIGHT...

GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT OF WEAK ENHANCEMENT OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AS
IT PUSHES E ACROSS THE NE-CONUS. WILL KEEP WITH A DRY FORECAST WITH
PREVAILING SUBSIDENCE ACCOMPANIED BY HIGH PRESSURE UNDER LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS.

WATCHING THE CLOUD DECK PRESENTLY OVER PA/NY. THIS SHOULD SLOWLY
ADVECT E WITH THE W/SW-FLOW REARWARD OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE. HIGH
CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOWER AND
THICKER CLOUDS INTO W NEW ENGLAND BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS CAN
RESULT IN COMPLICATIONS IN BOTH OVERNIGHT LOWS AND DENSE FOG
POTENTIAL AND COULD TOTALLY RUIN THE FORECAST.

YET ALTOGETHER...NOTING CLOUDS ALONG WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN NEW ENGLAND OF ANOTHER
NIGHT OF EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING. CONSIDERING TUESDAY
MORNING LOWS...WEDNESDAY MORNING LOWS SHOULD BE AROUND THE UPPER-
40S ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE AREAS WHICH RADIATE WELL. ELSEWHERE LOWS
AROUND THE MID-50S WITH URBAN CENTERS SLIGHTLY WARMER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

WEDNESDAY...

THREE BLIND MICE? SURE SEEMS LIKE IT. THE NEIGHBORING OF THE GREAT
LAKES...NE-CANADA...AND NW-ATLANTIC LOWS LENDS TO A STRENGTHENING OF
THE SURFACE LABRADOR HIGH AND MID-LEVEL RIDGE ALONG WITH PERSISTING
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR. SHOULD BE A QUIET DAY WEATHER-WISE.

MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE THE CONTINUED ENCROACHMENT OF CLOUDS INTO NEW
ENGLAND...THE THICKEST OF WHICH WILL BE INTO THE CT-RIVER VALLEY.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS...BUT WILL KEEP W OF THE BERKSHIRES BASED
ON GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT OF CONTINUED ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR AS FAR W
AS THE HUDSON-RIVER VALLEY. BEST ISENTROPIC MOTIONS / LIFT PARENT
WITH MOISTURE AVAILABILITY REMAIN W ACROSS NY/PA COLLOCATED WITH THE
SURFACE WARM FRONT.

COMBINATION OF BOTH A THERMAL AND PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD RESULT IN
AN ONSHORE SEA-BREEZE FLOW BY MID-MORNING. WARMER AIRMASS FILTERING
INTO THE REGION ALOFT COUPLED WITH A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER
SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS AROUND THE
LOW-80S BENEATH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

TROUGHING PARENT TO THE GREAT LAKES LOW RENEWS LOW PRESSURE ALONG
THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND OUT TO SEA.
SUBSEQUENT FALLING HEIGHTS AS THE NE-CANADA LOW LIFTING NE RESULTS
IN THE GREAT LAKES CLOSED LOW AND ATTENDANT WARM-FRONT TO WOBBLE
INTO THE NE-CONUS. WILL SEE CLOUDS INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION
ALLOWING THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO THE CT-RIVER VALLEY.

EVALUATING MODEL FIELDS...THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT OF SUBSIDENCE AND
LOW- TO MID-LEVEL DRY AIR ACROSS MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND. EVALUATING
ISENTROPIC FLOW AND FORCED ASCENT...ACTIVITY REMAINS ACROSS AND W OF
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. DECENT SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND ENHANCED
ASCENT COUPLED WITH A S/SW COMPONENT OF ISENTROPIC FLOW KEEPS THE
MAJORITY OF WET-WEATHER OUT OF OUR AREA. IN FACT...EVALUATING THETAE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD EXHIBITS EROSION AS IT ENCOUNTERS
MOISTURE-DEPRIVED DRIER AIR TO THE E.

ANOTHER EVENING OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW. WITH THE ENCROACHMENT OF
THE GREAT LAKES SYSTEM AS A WHOLE...HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE OF COOLEST
NIGHTTIME LOWS ACROSS E/SE NEW ENGLAND...WHEREAS THICKENING CLOUDS
OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND WILL KEEP THINGS MILD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
* UNCERTAINTY INCREASES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM. THE GFS
HAS COME MORE IN LINE BOTH WITH TODAYS ECMWF AS WELL AS YESTERDAYS
ECMWF RUN IN KEEPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS COMING OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST WELL EAST OF OUR SHORE LINE. A PERSISTENT UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY EAST...
MOVING OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PUSHES
NORTHWARD FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLER...
LESS SEASONABLE WEATHER WHILE HIGH PRESSURE IN QUEBEC WILL KEEP
THINGS RELATIVELY DRY. THIS HIGH WILL SINK SOUTH THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...EVENTUALLY DROPPING SOUTH OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND RETURNING US TO A MORE WESTERLY FLOW. LOW
PRESSURE IN ONTARIO MAY EVENTUALLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO QUEBEC
BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY. DEPENDING ON AVAILABLE MOISTURE THIS MAY INITIATE A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

BEYOND THIS WEEKEND...THE FORECAST HERE WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON THE
EVOLUTION OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. HOW
QUICKLY THE TROUGH PUSHES EAST VARIES GREATLY BY MODEL SO EXPECT A
GREATER THAN NORMAL POTENTIAL FOR AN EVER EVOLVING FORECAST FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

18Z UPDATE...

VFR THROUGHOUT. PREVAILING E/SE-FLOW EXACERBATED BY ONSHORE SEA-
BREEZES AROUND 15Z. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS ALONG WITH PATCHY MVFR-
IFR FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS CLOSER TO THE MORNING HOURS.
LOW CONFIDENCE OF MVFR-IFR CIGS ACROSS SE MA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING...BUT THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY
MVFR/IFR FOG EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER. PREVAILING E-WINDS. GUSTS OF 10-15 KTS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SE-WATERS...AND PERHAPS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
NEAR-SHORE AS THE SEA-BREEZE DEVELOPS AROUND 10-11 AM WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION.
LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY OVERNIGHT FOG LIMITING VISIBILITIES.
SEAS MAY INCREASE ON THE OUTER WATERS THIS WEEKEND AS AN OCEAN
STORM PASSES WELL EAST OF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RLG/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...RLG/SIPPRELL
MARINE...RLG/SIPPRELL



000
FXUS61 KBOX 191921
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
321 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PATTERN STARTS TO BECOME A BIT MORE
UNSETTLED EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

330 PM UPDATE...

FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. SEA-BREEZES PROGRESSING INTO INTERIOR
NEW ENGLAND SHOULD SLOW IN THEIR MOMENTUM AS DAYTIME HEATING
CONCLUDES. FEW TO SCATTERED PANCAKE CUMULUS UP AROUND 5 KFT SHOULD
DISSIPATE.

TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT INTO THE LOW-80S FOR A FEW SELECT AREAS
/LOWER CT-VALLEY AND INTERIOR E-MA JUST W OF THE SEA-BREEZE/.
VALUES DROPPING AS WE GO INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

TONIGHT...

GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT OF WEAK ENHANCEMENT OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AS
IT PUSHES E ACROSS THE NE-CONUS. WILL KEEP WITH A DRY FORECAST WITH
PREVAILING SUBSIDENCE ACCOMPANIED BY HIGH PRESSURE UNDER LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS.

WATCHING THE CLOUD DECK PRESENTLY OVER PA/NY. THIS SHOULD SLOWLY
ADVECT E WITH THE W/SW-FLOW REARWARD OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE. HIGH
CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOWER AND
THICKER CLOUDS INTO W NEW ENGLAND BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS CAN
RESULT IN COMPLICATIONS IN BOTH OVERNIGHT LOWS AND DENSE FOG
POTENTIAL AND COULD TOTALLY RUIN THE FORECAST.

YET ALTOGETHER...NOTING CLOUDS ALONG WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN NEW ENGLAND OF ANOTHER
NIGHT OF EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING. CONSIDERING TUESDAY
MORNING LOWS...WEDNESDAY MORNING LOWS SHOULD BE AROUND THE UPPER-
40S ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE AREAS WHICH RADIATE WELL. ELSEWHERE LOWS
AROUND THE MID-50S WITH URBAN CENTERS SLIGHTLY WARMER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

WEDNESDAY...

THREE BLIND MICE? SURE SEEMS LIKE IT. THE NEIGHBORING OF THE GREAT
LAKES...NE-CANADA...AND NW-ATLANTIC LOWS LENDS TO A STRENGTHENING OF
THE SURFACE LABRADOR HIGH AND MID-LEVEL RIDGE ALONG WITH PERSISTING
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR. SHOULD BE A QUIET DAY WEATHER-WISE.

MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE THE CONTINUED ENCROACHMENT OF CLOUDS INTO NEW
ENGLAND...THE THICKEST OF WHICH WILL BE INTO THE CT-RIVER VALLEY.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS...BUT WILL KEEP W OF THE BERKSHIRES BASED
ON GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT OF CONTINUED ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR AS FAR W
AS THE HUDSON-RIVER VALLEY. BEST ISENTROPIC MOTIONS / LIFT PARENT
WITH MOISTURE AVAILABILITY REMAIN W ACROSS NY/PA COLLOCATED WITH THE
SURFACE WARM FRONT.

COMBINATION OF BOTH A THERMAL AND PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD RESULT IN
AN ONSHORE SEA-BREEZE FLOW BY MID-MORNING. WARMER AIRMASS FILTERING
INTO THE REGION ALOFT COUPLED WITH A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER
SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS AROUND THE
LOW-80S BENEATH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

TROUGHING PARENT TO THE GREAT LAKES LOW RENEWS LOW PRESSURE ALONG
THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND OUT TO SEA.
SUBSEQUENT FALLING HEIGHTS AS THE NE-CANADA LOW LIFTING NE RESULTS
IN THE GREAT LAKES CLOSED LOW AND ATTENDANT WARM-FRONT TO WOBBLE
INTO THE NE-CONUS. WILL SEE CLOUDS INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION
ALLOWING THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO THE CT-RIVER VALLEY.

EVALUATING MODEL FIELDS...THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT OF SUBSIDENCE AND
LOW- TO MID-LEVEL DRY AIR ACROSS MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND. EVALUATING
ISENTROPIC FLOW AND FORCED ASCENT...ACTIVITY REMAINS ACROSS AND W OF
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. DECENT SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND ENHANCED
ASCENT COUPLED WITH A S/SW COMPONENT OF ISENTROPIC FLOW KEEPS THE
MAJORITY OF WET-WEATHER OUT OF OUR AREA. IN FACT...EVALUATING THETAE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD EXHIBITS EROSION AS IT ENCOUNTERS
MOISTURE-DEPRIVED DRIER AIR TO THE E.

ANOTHER EVENING OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW. WITH THE ENCROACHMENT OF
THE GREAT LAKES SYSTEM AS A WHOLE...HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE OF COOLEST
NIGHTTIME LOWS ACROSS E/SE NEW ENGLAND...WHEREAS THICKENING CLOUDS
OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND WILL KEEP THINGS MILD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
* UNCERTAINTY INCREASES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM. THE GFS
HAS COME MORE IN LINE BOTH WITH TODAYS ECMWF AS WELL AS YESTERDAYS
ECMWF RUN IN KEEPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS COMING OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST WELL EAST OF OUR SHORE LINE. A PERSISTENT UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY EAST...
MOVING OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PUSHES
NORTHWARD FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLER...
LESS SEASONABLE WEATHER WHILE HIGH PRESSURE IN QUEBEC WILL KEEP
THINGS RELATIVELY DRY. THIS HIGH WILL SINK SOUTH THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...EVENTUALLY DROPPING SOUTH OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND RETURNING US TO A MORE WESTERLY FLOW. LOW
PRESSURE IN ONTARIO MAY EVENTUALLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO QUEBEC
BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY. DEPENDING ON AVAILABLE MOISTURE THIS MAY INITIATE A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

BEYOND THIS WEEKEND...THE FORECAST HERE WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON THE
EVOLUTION OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. HOW
QUICKLY THE TROUGH PUSHES EAST VARIES GREATLY BY MODEL SO EXPECT A
GREATER THAN NORMAL POTENTIAL FOR AN EVER EVOLVING FORECAST FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

18Z UPDATE...

VFR THROUGHOUT. PREVAILING E/SE-FLOW EXACERBATED BY ONSHORE SEA-
BREEZES AROUND 15Z. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS ALONG WITH PATCHY MVFR-
IFR FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS CLOSER TO THE MORNING HOURS.
LOW CONFIDENCE OF MVFR-IFR CIGS ACROSS SE MA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING...BUT THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY
MVFR/IFR FOG EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER. PREVAILING E-WINDS. GUSTS OF 10-15 KTS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SE-WATERS...AND PERHAPS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
NEAR-SHORE AS THE SEA-BREEZE DEVELOPS AROUND 10-11 AM WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION.
LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY OVERNIGHT FOG LIMITING VISIBILITIES.
SEAS MAY INCREASE ON THE OUTER WATERS THIS WEEKEND AS AN OCEAN
STORM PASSES WELL EAST OF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RLG/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...RLG/SIPPRELL
MARINE...RLG/SIPPRELL



000
FXUS61 KOKX 191914
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
314 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AT THE
END OF THE WEEK...AND THEN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SOUND BREEZE CONVERGENCE SEEN ON KOKX AND BETTER YET ON TJFK WITH
STRATO CU RESULTING LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THESE CLOUDS DISSIPATE
QUICKLY THROUGH SUNSET AND THE LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING. THEN IT`S SKC
AND LIGHT WINDS SETTING THE STAGE FOR PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG IN THE
MORE LIKELY AREAS OF INLAND VALLEYS AND THE PINE BARRENS OF LONG
ISLAND. VSBY IN THESE AREAS COULD BE RATHER LOW (< 1/4 MI) AT
SUNRISE.

TEMP SENSOR AT KLDJ (LINDEN) HAS BEEN REPORTED FOR FAA MAINTENANCE
(TOO WARM).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WHILE SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE NORTHEAST -
AN UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE APPROACH (THE SHORT WAVE
PASSING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT).

BASED ON 09Z SREF AND 12Z DETERMINISTIC RUNS...KEEPING IT DRY
EXCEPT FOR ORANGE COUNTY AFT MIDNIGHT.

SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER WE`LL HAVE TOMORROW...BUT
AM THINKING CIRRUS WOULD BE THIN - THUS MOSTLY SUNNY.

BLENDED MOS USED FOR TEMPS WITH LITTLE SPREAD SEEN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH SETS UP ALONG THE NORTHEAST AS SFC HIGH PRES
BUILDS OVER THE REGION. SEVERAL STRONG SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE
AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...POSSIBLY
TOUCHING OFF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME. BEST
CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN ZONES.

UPPER LEVEL LOW PRES THEN MOVES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS
AND MEANDERS THERE THIS WEEKEND AS SFC HIGH PRES STRENGTHENS OVER
THE AREA BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE EARLY IN THE NEW WEEK. DRY CONDS
ON TAP FROM SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
GENERALLY DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST TO OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST BY WED MORNING...WHILE WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES
TO THE SOUTH.

SE-S SEA BREEZE 5-10 KT AT KJFK/KISP/KGON IS PUSHING INTO KLGA
ATTM...AND WINDS AT KBDR ARE FINALLY BEGINNING TO VEER SE AS WELL.
NE SOUND BREEZE FRONT IS RETREATING NORTHWARD AT KISP...SO WINDS
THERE SHOULD STAY SE THIS AFTERNOON.

LIGHT SE-S FLOW THIS EVENING SHOULD GO LIGHT/VARIABLE OVERNIGHT
AND THEN EASTERLY AGAIN BY WED MORNING.

WITH MARITIME AIR MASS IN PLACE RIGHT ALONG THE COAST...THINK
KISP COULD SEE MVFR VSBY LATE. KGON SHOULD ALSO DO ITS TYPICAL
LATE NIGHT FLIP-FLOPPING BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR VSBY.

EXPECT REPEAT PERFORMANCE OF SE-S SEA BREEZES AT COASTAL
TERMINALS TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE NOW THAT OCEAN SEA BREEZE
HAS ARRIVED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE NOW THAT NE SOUND BREEZE
FRONT IS RETREATING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WED THROUGH SAT...
.WED AFTERNOON-THU NIGHT...SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE ACROSS NYC
METRO AND LOWER HUDSON VALLEY TERMINALS.
.FRI-SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BLW SCA LVLS. A PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW
WILL DEVELOP FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH
WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT. SEAS ON
THE OCEAN MAY BUILD CLOSE TO 5 FT THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIP THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. DRY
CONDS ON TAP THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TONGUE
NEAR TERM...TONGUE
SHORT TERM...JMC/TONGUE
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...GOODMAN
MARINE...MPS/TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...TONGUE/MPS








000
FXUS61 KOKX 191914
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
314 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AT THE
END OF THE WEEK...AND THEN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SOUND BREEZE CONVERGENCE SEEN ON KOKX AND BETTER YET ON TJFK WITH
STRATO CU RESULTING LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THESE CLOUDS DISSIPATE
QUICKLY THROUGH SUNSET AND THE LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING. THEN IT`S SKC
AND LIGHT WINDS SETTING THE STAGE FOR PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG IN THE
MORE LIKELY AREAS OF INLAND VALLEYS AND THE PINE BARRENS OF LONG
ISLAND. VSBY IN THESE AREAS COULD BE RATHER LOW (< 1/4 MI) AT
SUNRISE.

TEMP SENSOR AT KLDJ (LINDEN) HAS BEEN REPORTED FOR FAA MAINTENANCE
(TOO WARM).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WHILE SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE NORTHEAST -
AN UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE APPROACH (THE SHORT WAVE
PASSING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT).

BASED ON 09Z SREF AND 12Z DETERMINISTIC RUNS...KEEPING IT DRY
EXCEPT FOR ORANGE COUNTY AFT MIDNIGHT.

SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER WE`LL HAVE TOMORROW...BUT
AM THINKING CIRRUS WOULD BE THIN - THUS MOSTLY SUNNY.

BLENDED MOS USED FOR TEMPS WITH LITTLE SPREAD SEEN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH SETS UP ALONG THE NORTHEAST AS SFC HIGH PRES
BUILDS OVER THE REGION. SEVERAL STRONG SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE
AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...POSSIBLY
TOUCHING OFF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME. BEST
CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN ZONES.

UPPER LEVEL LOW PRES THEN MOVES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS
AND MEANDERS THERE THIS WEEKEND AS SFC HIGH PRES STRENGTHENS OVER
THE AREA BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE EARLY IN THE NEW WEEK. DRY CONDS
ON TAP FROM SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
GENERALLY DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST TO OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST BY WED MORNING...WHILE WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES
TO THE SOUTH.

SE-S SEA BREEZE 5-10 KT AT KJFK/KISP/KGON IS PUSHING INTO KLGA
ATTM...AND WINDS AT KBDR ARE FINALLY BEGINNING TO VEER SE AS WELL.
NE SOUND BREEZE FRONT IS RETREATING NORTHWARD AT KISP...SO WINDS
THERE SHOULD STAY SE THIS AFTERNOON.

LIGHT SE-S FLOW THIS EVENING SHOULD GO LIGHT/VARIABLE OVERNIGHT
AND THEN EASTERLY AGAIN BY WED MORNING.

WITH MARITIME AIR MASS IN PLACE RIGHT ALONG THE COAST...THINK
KISP COULD SEE MVFR VSBY LATE. KGON SHOULD ALSO DO ITS TYPICAL
LATE NIGHT FLIP-FLOPPING BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR VSBY.

EXPECT REPEAT PERFORMANCE OF SE-S SEA BREEZES AT COASTAL
TERMINALS TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE NOW THAT OCEAN SEA BREEZE
HAS ARRIVED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE NOW THAT NE SOUND BREEZE
FRONT IS RETREATING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WED THROUGH SAT...
.WED AFTERNOON-THU NIGHT...SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE ACROSS NYC
METRO AND LOWER HUDSON VALLEY TERMINALS.
.FRI-SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BLW SCA LVLS. A PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW
WILL DEVELOP FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH
WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT. SEAS ON
THE OCEAN MAY BUILD CLOSE TO 5 FT THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIP THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. DRY
CONDS ON TAP THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TONGUE
NEAR TERM...TONGUE
SHORT TERM...JMC/TONGUE
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...GOODMAN
MARINE...MPS/TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...TONGUE/MPS








000
FXUS61 KOKX 191914
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
314 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AT THE
END OF THE WEEK...AND THEN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SOUND BREEZE CONVERGENCE SEEN ON KOKX AND BETTER YET ON TJFK WITH
STRATO CU RESULTING LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THESE CLOUDS DISSIPATE
QUICKLY THROUGH SUNSET AND THE LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING. THEN IT`S SKC
AND LIGHT WINDS SETTING THE STAGE FOR PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG IN THE
MORE LIKELY AREAS OF INLAND VALLEYS AND THE PINE BARRENS OF LONG
ISLAND. VSBY IN THESE AREAS COULD BE RATHER LOW (< 1/4 MI) AT
SUNRISE.

TEMP SENSOR AT KLDJ (LINDEN) HAS BEEN REPORTED FOR FAA MAINTENANCE
(TOO WARM).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WHILE SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE NORTHEAST -
AN UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE APPROACH (THE SHORT WAVE
PASSING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT).

BASED ON 09Z SREF AND 12Z DETERMINISTIC RUNS...KEEPING IT DRY
EXCEPT FOR ORANGE COUNTY AFT MIDNIGHT.

SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER WE`LL HAVE TOMORROW...BUT
AM THINKING CIRRUS WOULD BE THIN - THUS MOSTLY SUNNY.

BLENDED MOS USED FOR TEMPS WITH LITTLE SPREAD SEEN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH SETS UP ALONG THE NORTHEAST AS SFC HIGH PRES
BUILDS OVER THE REGION. SEVERAL STRONG SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE
AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...POSSIBLY
TOUCHING OFF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME. BEST
CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN ZONES.

UPPER LEVEL LOW PRES THEN MOVES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS
AND MEANDERS THERE THIS WEEKEND AS SFC HIGH PRES STRENGTHENS OVER
THE AREA BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE EARLY IN THE NEW WEEK. DRY CONDS
ON TAP FROM SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
GENERALLY DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST TO OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST BY WED MORNING...WHILE WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES
TO THE SOUTH.

SE-S SEA BREEZE 5-10 KT AT KJFK/KISP/KGON IS PUSHING INTO KLGA
ATTM...AND WINDS AT KBDR ARE FINALLY BEGINNING TO VEER SE AS WELL.
NE SOUND BREEZE FRONT IS RETREATING NORTHWARD AT KISP...SO WINDS
THERE SHOULD STAY SE THIS AFTERNOON.

LIGHT SE-S FLOW THIS EVENING SHOULD GO LIGHT/VARIABLE OVERNIGHT
AND THEN EASTERLY AGAIN BY WED MORNING.

WITH MARITIME AIR MASS IN PLACE RIGHT ALONG THE COAST...THINK
KISP COULD SEE MVFR VSBY LATE. KGON SHOULD ALSO DO ITS TYPICAL
LATE NIGHT FLIP-FLOPPING BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR VSBY.

EXPECT REPEAT PERFORMANCE OF SE-S SEA BREEZES AT COASTAL
TERMINALS TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE NOW THAT OCEAN SEA BREEZE
HAS ARRIVED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE NOW THAT NE SOUND BREEZE
FRONT IS RETREATING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WED THROUGH SAT...
.WED AFTERNOON-THU NIGHT...SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE ACROSS NYC
METRO AND LOWER HUDSON VALLEY TERMINALS.
.FRI-SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BLW SCA LVLS. A PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW
WILL DEVELOP FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH
WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT. SEAS ON
THE OCEAN MAY BUILD CLOSE TO 5 FT THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIP THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. DRY
CONDS ON TAP THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TONGUE
NEAR TERM...TONGUE
SHORT TERM...JMC/TONGUE
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...GOODMAN
MARINE...MPS/TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...TONGUE/MPS








000
FXUS61 KOKX 191914
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
314 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AT THE
END OF THE WEEK...AND THEN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SOUND BREEZE CONVERGENCE SEEN ON KOKX AND BETTER YET ON TJFK WITH
STRATO CU RESULTING LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THESE CLOUDS DISSIPATE
QUICKLY THROUGH SUNSET AND THE LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING. THEN IT`S SKC
AND LIGHT WINDS SETTING THE STAGE FOR PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG IN THE
MORE LIKELY AREAS OF INLAND VALLEYS AND THE PINE BARRENS OF LONG
ISLAND. VSBY IN THESE AREAS COULD BE RATHER LOW (< 1/4 MI) AT
SUNRISE.

TEMP SENSOR AT KLDJ (LINDEN) HAS BEEN REPORTED FOR FAA MAINTENANCE
(TOO WARM).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WHILE SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE NORTHEAST -
AN UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE APPROACH (THE SHORT WAVE
PASSING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT).

BASED ON 09Z SREF AND 12Z DETERMINISTIC RUNS...KEEPING IT DRY
EXCEPT FOR ORANGE COUNTY AFT MIDNIGHT.

SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER WE`LL HAVE TOMORROW...BUT
AM THINKING CIRRUS WOULD BE THIN - THUS MOSTLY SUNNY.

BLENDED MOS USED FOR TEMPS WITH LITTLE SPREAD SEEN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH SETS UP ALONG THE NORTHEAST AS SFC HIGH PRES
BUILDS OVER THE REGION. SEVERAL STRONG SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE
AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...POSSIBLY
TOUCHING OFF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME. BEST
CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN ZONES.

UPPER LEVEL LOW PRES THEN MOVES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS
AND MEANDERS THERE THIS WEEKEND AS SFC HIGH PRES STRENGTHENS OVER
THE AREA BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE EARLY IN THE NEW WEEK. DRY CONDS
ON TAP FROM SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
GENERALLY DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST TO OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST BY WED MORNING...WHILE WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES
TO THE SOUTH.

SE-S SEA BREEZE 5-10 KT AT KJFK/KISP/KGON IS PUSHING INTO KLGA
ATTM...AND WINDS AT KBDR ARE FINALLY BEGINNING TO VEER SE AS WELL.
NE SOUND BREEZE FRONT IS RETREATING NORTHWARD AT KISP...SO WINDS
THERE SHOULD STAY SE THIS AFTERNOON.

LIGHT SE-S FLOW THIS EVENING SHOULD GO LIGHT/VARIABLE OVERNIGHT
AND THEN EASTERLY AGAIN BY WED MORNING.

WITH MARITIME AIR MASS IN PLACE RIGHT ALONG THE COAST...THINK
KISP COULD SEE MVFR VSBY LATE. KGON SHOULD ALSO DO ITS TYPICAL
LATE NIGHT FLIP-FLOPPING BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR VSBY.

EXPECT REPEAT PERFORMANCE OF SE-S SEA BREEZES AT COASTAL
TERMINALS TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE NOW THAT OCEAN SEA BREEZE
HAS ARRIVED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE NOW THAT NE SOUND BREEZE
FRONT IS RETREATING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WED THROUGH SAT...
.WED AFTERNOON-THU NIGHT...SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE ACROSS NYC
METRO AND LOWER HUDSON VALLEY TERMINALS.
.FRI-SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BLW SCA LVLS. A PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW
WILL DEVELOP FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH
WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT. SEAS ON
THE OCEAN MAY BUILD CLOSE TO 5 FT THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIP THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. DRY
CONDS ON TAP THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TONGUE
NEAR TERM...TONGUE
SHORT TERM...JMC/TONGUE
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...GOODMAN
MARINE...MPS/TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...TONGUE/MPS








000
FXUS61 KOKX 191807
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
207 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE REGION`S
WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FCST ON TRACK. NICE LI SOUND BREEZE CONVERGENCE SEEN ON KOKX AND
BETTER YET ON TJFK WITH STRATO CU RESULTING. FEATURE IS FAIRLY
STATIONARY (OR EVEN DRIFTING SOUTH). SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS
CLOUDS THOUGH ARE SLOWLY MIXING OUT.

TEMPS AT KLDJ (LINDEN) LOOK A BIT HIGH BASED COMPARED TO
SURROUNDING MESONET STATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
12Z MODELS CONTINUING TO KEEP PASSING LOW PRES SE OF THE CWA AND
CONVECTIVE PCPN W OF THE CWA. WILL KEPT THE FCST DRY.

RADIATION FOG SEEMS LIKELY OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY IN THE PINE
BARRENS AND INTERIOR VALLEYS WED MRNG. TEMPS A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE...WHICH ARE CLOSE TO CLIMO DURING THE DAY BUT A FEW
DEGREES BLW NORMAL AT NGT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THIS TIME FRAME WILL FEATURE COOLER THAN NORMAL BUT MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS.

IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS...A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS OUR AREA THURSDAY...PASSING JUST SOUTHEAST
FRIDAY. THIS TROUGH DEEPENS SLIGHTLY AND REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS
TO THE NORTH OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME.

AT THE SFC...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS TO THE WEST AS A SERIES OF
WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTERS RIDE ALONG IT. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTHEAST RIDGES SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN POPS FOR WESTERN LOCATIONS LATE AT NIGHT AND THROUGH THURSDAY.
POSSIBLE SHOWERS CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...SETTLING SOUTHEAST.
THEREAFTER...BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WOULD BE TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...CLOSER TO THE LOW AND FRONT.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THIS TIME
FRAME DUE TO AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS...COOLER TEMPS ALOFT
AND PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW. MAX TEMPS MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE 80
DEGREE MARK NEAR NYC METRO...WITH WIDESPREAD 70S ELSEWHERE. LOWS AT
NIGHT IN THE 50S AND 60S...AGAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

A SLIGHT MODERATION IN TEMPS BACK TO NORMAL IS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS HEIGHTS RISE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST TO OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST BY WED MORNING...WHILE WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES
TO THE SOUTH.

S-SE SEA BREEZES ARE IN AT KJFK/KISP/KGON AS OF 17Z...AND ARE
RIGHT ON DOORSTEP OF KEWR WHICH SHOULD SWITCH TO SOUTHERLY BY 19Z.
NE SOUND BREEZE MAY HOWEVER RETURN TO KISP BY 20Z.

EASTERLY FLOW OFF LONG ISLAND SOUND HAS BEEN HANGING IN A LITTLE
LONGER AT KLGA AND ALSO KBDR. THINK KBDR WILL ALSO SWITCH OVER TO
SE-S BY 18Z BUT KLGA NOT UNTIL 21Z-22Z.

LIGHT SE-S FLOW THIS EVENING SHOULD GO LIGHT/VARIABLE OVERNIGHT
AND THEN EASTERLY AGAIN BY WED MORNING. WITH MARITIME AIR MASS IN
PLACE RIGHT ALONG THE COAST THINK KISP COULD SEE MVFR VSBY LATE...
AND KGON SHOULD DO ITS TYPICAL LATE NIGHT FLIP-FLOPPING BETWEEN
MVFR AND IFR VSBY.

EXPECT REPEAT PERFORMANCE OF SE-S SEA BREEZES AT COASTAL
TERMINALS TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: UNSCHEDULED AMD MAY BE NECESSARY LATER ON
TO FINE-TUNE ARRIVAL OF SOUTHERLY OCEAN SEA BREEZE.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NE SOUND BREEZE MAY RETURN BY 20Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WED THROUGH SAT...
.WED AFTERNOON-THU NIGHT...SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE ACROSS NYC
METRO AND LOWER HUDSON VALLEY TERMINALS.
.FRI-SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BLW SCA LVLS THRU WED.

A PERSISTENT EASTERLY WIND IS EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. WINDS INCREASE SLIGHTLY FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO
THE SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER...DO NOT
EXPECT WIND SPEEDS TO REACH SCA CRITERIA...OR 25 KT. SEAS MAY BUILD
IN RESPONSE...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 5 FT OVER THE OCEAN WATERS PER
WAVE WATCH III.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN THRU THE WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TONGUE
NEAR TERM...TONGUE
SHORT TERM...JMC/TONGUE
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...GOODMAN
MARINE...GOODMAN/TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/TONGUE






000
FXUS61 KOKX 191807
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
207 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE REGION`S
WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FCST ON TRACK. NICE LI SOUND BREEZE CONVERGENCE SEEN ON KOKX AND
BETTER YET ON TJFK WITH STRATO CU RESULTING. FEATURE IS FAIRLY
STATIONARY (OR EVEN DRIFTING SOUTH). SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS
CLOUDS THOUGH ARE SLOWLY MIXING OUT.

TEMPS AT KLDJ (LINDEN) LOOK A BIT HIGH BASED COMPARED TO
SURROUNDING MESONET STATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
12Z MODELS CONTINUING TO KEEP PASSING LOW PRES SE OF THE CWA AND
CONVECTIVE PCPN W OF THE CWA. WILL KEPT THE FCST DRY.

RADIATION FOG SEEMS LIKELY OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY IN THE PINE
BARRENS AND INTERIOR VALLEYS WED MRNG. TEMPS A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE...WHICH ARE CLOSE TO CLIMO DURING THE DAY BUT A FEW
DEGREES BLW NORMAL AT NGT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THIS TIME FRAME WILL FEATURE COOLER THAN NORMAL BUT MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS.

IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS...A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS OUR AREA THURSDAY...PASSING JUST SOUTHEAST
FRIDAY. THIS TROUGH DEEPENS SLIGHTLY AND REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS
TO THE NORTH OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME.

AT THE SFC...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS TO THE WEST AS A SERIES OF
WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTERS RIDE ALONG IT. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTHEAST RIDGES SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN POPS FOR WESTERN LOCATIONS LATE AT NIGHT AND THROUGH THURSDAY.
POSSIBLE SHOWERS CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...SETTLING SOUTHEAST.
THEREAFTER...BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WOULD BE TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...CLOSER TO THE LOW AND FRONT.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THIS TIME
FRAME DUE TO AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS...COOLER TEMPS ALOFT
AND PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW. MAX TEMPS MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE 80
DEGREE MARK NEAR NYC METRO...WITH WIDESPREAD 70S ELSEWHERE. LOWS AT
NIGHT IN THE 50S AND 60S...AGAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

A SLIGHT MODERATION IN TEMPS BACK TO NORMAL IS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS HEIGHTS RISE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST TO OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST BY WED MORNING...WHILE WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES
TO THE SOUTH.

S-SE SEA BREEZES ARE IN AT KJFK/KISP/KGON AS OF 17Z...AND ARE
RIGHT ON DOORSTEP OF KEWR WHICH SHOULD SWITCH TO SOUTHERLY BY 19Z.
NE SOUND BREEZE MAY HOWEVER RETURN TO KISP BY 20Z.

EASTERLY FLOW OFF LONG ISLAND SOUND HAS BEEN HANGING IN A LITTLE
LONGER AT KLGA AND ALSO KBDR. THINK KBDR WILL ALSO SWITCH OVER TO
SE-S BY 18Z BUT KLGA NOT UNTIL 21Z-22Z.

LIGHT SE-S FLOW THIS EVENING SHOULD GO LIGHT/VARIABLE OVERNIGHT
AND THEN EASTERLY AGAIN BY WED MORNING. WITH MARITIME AIR MASS IN
PLACE RIGHT ALONG THE COAST THINK KISP COULD SEE MVFR VSBY LATE...
AND KGON SHOULD DO ITS TYPICAL LATE NIGHT FLIP-FLOPPING BETWEEN
MVFR AND IFR VSBY.

EXPECT REPEAT PERFORMANCE OF SE-S SEA BREEZES AT COASTAL
TERMINALS TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: UNSCHEDULED AMD MAY BE NECESSARY LATER ON
TO FINE-TUNE ARRIVAL OF SOUTHERLY OCEAN SEA BREEZE.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NE SOUND BREEZE MAY RETURN BY 20Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WED THROUGH SAT...
.WED AFTERNOON-THU NIGHT...SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE ACROSS NYC
METRO AND LOWER HUDSON VALLEY TERMINALS.
.FRI-SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BLW SCA LVLS THRU WED.

A PERSISTENT EASTERLY WIND IS EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. WINDS INCREASE SLIGHTLY FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO
THE SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER...DO NOT
EXPECT WIND SPEEDS TO REACH SCA CRITERIA...OR 25 KT. SEAS MAY BUILD
IN RESPONSE...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 5 FT OVER THE OCEAN WATERS PER
WAVE WATCH III.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN THRU THE WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TONGUE
NEAR TERM...TONGUE
SHORT TERM...JMC/TONGUE
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...GOODMAN
MARINE...GOODMAN/TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/TONGUE







000
FXUS61 KBOX 191752
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
152 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS
WEEKEND WITH REGARDS TO THE PROXIMITY OF A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE
TO NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

2 PM UPDATE...

NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE FORECAST AS EVERYTHING REMAINS ON TRACK.
EVIDENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN THE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS AND FEW TO SCATTERED PANCAKE-LOOKING CUMULUS.
SEA-BREEZES COMING ASHORE WITH 10 TO 15 MPH WIND PER OBSERVATIONS.

STILL EXPECTING SLIGHTLY-BELOW SEASONABLE HIGHS AROUND THE UPPER-
70S. COOLER ALONG THE SHORELINES WITH SEA-BREEZES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...

TONIGHT...
MID LVL RIDGE CONTINUES TO DECLINE AS WEAK MID LVL CUTOFF PUSHES
TO THE E. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTERS THAT SUBSIDENCE IS
LIKELY TO PREVAIL BETWEEN THIS CUTOFF AND A SECOND IN ATLANTIC
CANADA. THEREFORE...EXCEPT FOR MAYBE SOME HIGH CLOUDS LEFTOVER
FROM CONVECTION WELL TO THE W...ANOTHER NIGHT WITH CONDITIONS
FAVORABLE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED. IN FACT...MOS IS
STILL LIKELY A LITTLE TOO WARM IF SKIES ARE ALLOWED TO CLEAR
ENOUGH ACROSS THE NW VALLEYS. THEREFORE...DROPPED MINS BY A FEW
DEGREES...ALTHOUGH EVEN THIS EFFORT MAY NOT BE ENOUGH.

WED...
ALTHOUGH CORE OF HIGH PRES WILL MOVE E OF THE REGION ON
WED...STILL NOTE ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE TRAPPED BETWEEN THE CUTOFFS
THAT INVERTED RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL. IN FACT...NOTE
ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE THROUGH THE COLUMN ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS THAT
EVEN AS SHOWERS/T-STORMS DEVELOP ACROSS PA AND NY...THAT THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY OUT OF EVEN THE WRN REACHES OF NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH THE DAY. THE FACT THAT THE OVERALL COLUMN IS RELATIVELY
MOISTURE STARVED ADDS CONFIDENCE TO MAINTAINING A DRY FORECAST.
OTHERWISE...ALTHOUGH MID LVL TEMPS INCREASE TO AN AVERAGE OF
12-14C...NEAR SHORE LOCATIONS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW
NORMAL DUE TO GRADIENT SUPPORTING E-SE FLOW...LIKELY ASSISTED BY
DIURNAL SEA BREEZES. AREAS IN WRN MA/CT AND SW NH ARE THE MOST
LIKELY TO SEE TEMPS SHIFT INTO THE LOW 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK
* UNCERTAINTY INCREASES THIS WEEKEND WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD OVERALL SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF
THIS WORK WEEK.  MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES ARE STARTING TO
LATCH ONTO THE IDEA OF A HIGH PRESSURE LINGERING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...SHIFTING THE PRIMARY STORM TRACK FARTHER SOUTH.  MODELS
DIVERGE THIS WEEKEND...WITH THE GFS HAVING A MORE COMPACT LONGWAVE
PATTERN THAN THE ECMWF.  THIS LEADS TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATION
OF WHERE A MID-LEVEL CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPS TOWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH
IN TURN IMPACTS THE POSITION OF A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE.

AT THIS TIME...STAYING CLOSER TO A CONSENSUS APPROACH TO MITIGATE
SOME OF THESE DETAIL DIFFERENCES. WHILE IMPORTANT OVERALL...SOME OF
THESE DETAILS HAVE LOW PREDICTABILITY THIS FAR IN ADVANCE.

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MID-LEVEL TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE
MARITIMES...WITH A HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC STRETCHING ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SEASONABLE TO JUST BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY A
FEW SHOWERS MAY BLEED INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY...BUT IT
IS EXPECTED THAT MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN IN NEW YORK
STATE.

THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THIS IS WHERE THE BULK OF THE
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IS. SATURDAY SHOULD STILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES AND DRY
WEATHER. SUNDAY AND MONDAY HAVE THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS
OR RAIN AS EITHER A COLD FRONT OR A COASTAL LOW BRING MOISTURE TO
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD START TO WARM A FEW DEGREES THROUGH
THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

18Z UPDATE...

VFR THROUGHOUT. PREVAILING E/SE-FLOW EXACERBATED BY ONSHORE SEA-
BREEZES AROUND 15Z. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS ALONG WITH PATCHY MVFR-
IFR FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS CLOSER TO THE MORNING HOURS.
LOW CONFIDENCE OF MVFR-IFR CIGS ACROSS SE MA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING...BUT THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR. LOW
PROBABILITY OF PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

GENERALLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED. FLOW SHIFTS FROM W-NW
TODAY TO THE S LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...THEN TO THE E-SE BY
TOMORROW AS A STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO SPIN UP WELL TO THE SE. WIND
GUSTS MAY APPROACH 15 KT DURING THE DAY ON WED.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. RELATIVELY QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
REGION. LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY OVERNIGHT FOG LIMITING
VISIBILITIES. SEAS MAY INCREASE ON THE OUTER WATERS SATURDAY AS AN
OCEAN STORM PASSES WELL EAST OF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/SIPPRELL
MARINE...BELK/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 191752
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
152 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS
WEEKEND WITH REGARDS TO THE PROXIMITY OF A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE
TO NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

2 PM UPDATE...

NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE FORECAST AS EVERYTHING REMAINS ON TRACK.
EVIDENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN THE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS AND FEW TO SCATTERED PANCAKE-LOOKING CUMULUS.
SEA-BREEZES COMING ASHORE WITH 10 TO 15 MPH WIND PER OBSERVATIONS.

STILL EXPECTING SLIGHTLY-BELOW SEASONABLE HIGHS AROUND THE UPPER-
70S. COOLER ALONG THE SHORELINES WITH SEA-BREEZES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...

TONIGHT...
MID LVL RIDGE CONTINUES TO DECLINE AS WEAK MID LVL CUTOFF PUSHES
TO THE E. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTERS THAT SUBSIDENCE IS
LIKELY TO PREVAIL BETWEEN THIS CUTOFF AND A SECOND IN ATLANTIC
CANADA. THEREFORE...EXCEPT FOR MAYBE SOME HIGH CLOUDS LEFTOVER
FROM CONVECTION WELL TO THE W...ANOTHER NIGHT WITH CONDITIONS
FAVORABLE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED. IN FACT...MOS IS
STILL LIKELY A LITTLE TOO WARM IF SKIES ARE ALLOWED TO CLEAR
ENOUGH ACROSS THE NW VALLEYS. THEREFORE...DROPPED MINS BY A FEW
DEGREES...ALTHOUGH EVEN THIS EFFORT MAY NOT BE ENOUGH.

WED...
ALTHOUGH CORE OF HIGH PRES WILL MOVE E OF THE REGION ON
WED...STILL NOTE ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE TRAPPED BETWEEN THE CUTOFFS
THAT INVERTED RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL. IN FACT...NOTE
ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE THROUGH THE COLUMN ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS THAT
EVEN AS SHOWERS/T-STORMS DEVELOP ACROSS PA AND NY...THAT THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY OUT OF EVEN THE WRN REACHES OF NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH THE DAY. THE FACT THAT THE OVERALL COLUMN IS RELATIVELY
MOISTURE STARVED ADDS CONFIDENCE TO MAINTAINING A DRY FORECAST.
OTHERWISE...ALTHOUGH MID LVL TEMPS INCREASE TO AN AVERAGE OF
12-14C...NEAR SHORE LOCATIONS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW
NORMAL DUE TO GRADIENT SUPPORTING E-SE FLOW...LIKELY ASSISTED BY
DIURNAL SEA BREEZES. AREAS IN WRN MA/CT AND SW NH ARE THE MOST
LIKELY TO SEE TEMPS SHIFT INTO THE LOW 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK
* UNCERTAINTY INCREASES THIS WEEKEND WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD OVERALL SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF
THIS WORK WEEK.  MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES ARE STARTING TO
LATCH ONTO THE IDEA OF A HIGH PRESSURE LINGERING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...SHIFTING THE PRIMARY STORM TRACK FARTHER SOUTH.  MODELS
DIVERGE THIS WEEKEND...WITH THE GFS HAVING A MORE COMPACT LONGWAVE
PATTERN THAN THE ECMWF.  THIS LEADS TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATION
OF WHERE A MID-LEVEL CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPS TOWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH
IN TURN IMPACTS THE POSITION OF A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE.

AT THIS TIME...STAYING CLOSER TO A CONSENSUS APPROACH TO MITIGATE
SOME OF THESE DETAIL DIFFERENCES. WHILE IMPORTANT OVERALL...SOME OF
THESE DETAILS HAVE LOW PREDICTABILITY THIS FAR IN ADVANCE.

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MID-LEVEL TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE
MARITIMES...WITH A HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC STRETCHING ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SEASONABLE TO JUST BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY A
FEW SHOWERS MAY BLEED INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY...BUT IT
IS EXPECTED THAT MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN IN NEW YORK
STATE.

THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THIS IS WHERE THE BULK OF THE
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IS. SATURDAY SHOULD STILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES AND DRY
WEATHER. SUNDAY AND MONDAY HAVE THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS
OR RAIN AS EITHER A COLD FRONT OR A COASTAL LOW BRING MOISTURE TO
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD START TO WARM A FEW DEGREES THROUGH
THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

18Z UPDATE...

VFR THROUGHOUT. PREVAILING E/SE-FLOW EXACERBATED BY ONSHORE SEA-
BREEZES AROUND 15Z. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS ALONG WITH PATCHY MVFR-
IFR FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS CLOSER TO THE MORNING HOURS.
LOW CONFIDENCE OF MVFR-IFR CIGS ACROSS SE MA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING...BUT THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR. LOW
PROBABILITY OF PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

GENERALLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED. FLOW SHIFTS FROM W-NW
TODAY TO THE S LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...THEN TO THE E-SE BY
TOMORROW AS A STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO SPIN UP WELL TO THE SE. WIND
GUSTS MAY APPROACH 15 KT DURING THE DAY ON WED.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. RELATIVELY QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
REGION. LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY OVERNIGHT FOG LIMITING
VISIBILITIES. SEAS MAY INCREASE ON THE OUTER WATERS SATURDAY AS AN
OCEAN STORM PASSES WELL EAST OF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/SIPPRELL
MARINE...BELK/DOODY



000
FXUS61 KALY 191725
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
125 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS HIGH
PRESSURE IS IN FIRM CONTROL.  THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED FOR
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A SLOW MOVING AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION. THE BEST CHANCES FOR WET WEATHER WILL
BE TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND WESTERN AND CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 120 PM EDT...MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE REGION...WITH JUST A
FEW PATCHY FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS...AND SOME HIGH THIN CIRRUS
NOTED. 1015MB SURFACE HIGH WAS ANALYZED ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WITH A LIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
WIND.

AFTERNOON TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 75-80 IN MOST VALLEY
AREAS...ON THE HIGHER SIDE OF THIS RANGE FROM ALBANY
SOUTHWARD...WITH GENERALLY 70-75 EXPECTED ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

HERE ARE THE AVERAGE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES FOR AUGUST
THROUGH THE 18TH...
ALBANY NY: -2.0 DEGREES
GLENS FALLS NY: -0.9 DEGREES
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: -2.4 DEGREES
BENNINGTON VT: -2.8 DEGREES
PITTSFIELD MA: -3.5 DEGREES

FOR MORE CLIMATE INFORMATION CHECK OUT OUR CLIMATE PAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY/CLIMATE

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A WEAK AND SLOW
MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA.

A SHORT WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER MID WEST IS EXPECTED TO
CLOSE OFF THIS AFTERNOON...THEN THIS LOW WILL ONLY GRADUALLY SHIFT
EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS IT
ENCOUNTERS THE RIDGING TO ITS EAST. THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL STRENGTHEN
AND SHIFT WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THIS WEEK
EVENTUALLY ESTABLISHING ITSELF OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. THE RIDGE WILL
THEN BUILD NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE WEEK. IN
THE MEANTIME...SURFACE RIDGING WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AS A RESULT THE UPPER
LOW IS EXPECTED TO OPEN THURSDAY AND MOVE ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. THE
RESULT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE FOR GREATER CHANCES FOR STORMS
TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND
WESTERN/CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY. CHANCES WILL SPREAD FARTHER EAST THURSDAY
HOWEVER THE ALREADY RATHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL BE WEAKENING FURTHER.
CHANCES FOR THUNDER SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY WHERE HIGHER DEW POINTS WILL HELP YIELD GREATER
INSTABILITY.

SEASONABLY WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY...WITH A RETURN TO COOLER SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL VALUES
FOR THURSDAY. OVERALL THE GUIDANCE SEEMS REASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO FEATURE IMPROVING WEATHER FOR THE
CLOSE OF THE WORK WEEK AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM ERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS
AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER.

FRIDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT...A REX BLOCK SETS UP OVER ERN CANADA AND THE
NORTHEAST WITH A CLOSED H500 ANTICYCLONE OVER N-CNTRL QUEBEC...AND
JUST EAST OF HUDSON BAY.  A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION AND PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST.  THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL
LOW AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND UPPER MID
ATLANTIC REGION MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.  H850 TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE +11C TO +13C RANGE.  EXPECT HIGHS TO BE IN THE MID TO U70S IN
THE VALLEYS...AND U60S TO L70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.  THE SHOWERS
WILL DIMINISH SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION IN THE EVENING
WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.

SATURDAY TO SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES IN FROM ERN QUEBEC
NEW BRUNSWICK.  A BROAD CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW FORMS WELL EAST TO
SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD AND THE GULF OR MAINE.  AN H500 RIDGE BUILDS
IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND SE
CANADA.  DRY WX IS EXPECTED BASED ON THE LATEST ECMWF/GFS/WPC
GUIDANCE...AS THE UPSTREAM RIDGE LOOKS TO DOMINATE WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPS EXPECTED WITH M60S TO L70S FOR HIGHS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...AND MID TO U70S OVER THE VALLEYS.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S
WITH SOME SPOTTY U40S OVER THE HIGH PEAKS.  HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY COMFORTABLE WITH SFC DEWPTS GENERALLY IN THE
50S TO L60S.  AN ONSHORE FLOW OF MARITIME AIR WILL IMPACT THE REGION
WITH THE SFC HIGH SITUATED TO THE NORTH AND EAST.

MONDAY...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM SOUTHEAST
CANADA...THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND THE CNTRL MS RIVER VALLEY.  A
WEAK WARM FRONT MAY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WITH AN INCREASE OF
CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER HUMIDITY LEVELS...BUT A DRY FCST HAS BEEN
MAINTAINED BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE.  TEMPS SHOULD FINISH NEAR
NORMAL FOR THE START OF THE WEEK...AS H850 TEMPS INCREASE TO +13C TO
+15C...AND HIGHS IN THE U70S TO L80S WILL BE COMMON IN THE VALLEYS
WITH 70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON WILL
SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT...AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION ON WEDNESDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
THEREAFTER...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF SOME GROUND FOG
DEVELOPMENT...PARTICULARLY AT KGFL AND KPSF...BETWEEN 07Z-11Z/WED.
HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS DEVELOP AND/OR
PERSIST FOR A PERIOD OVERNIGHT...WHICH COULD MITIGATE THE EXTENT OF
FOG DEVELOPMENT. AT THIS TIME...HAVE ONLY INCLUDED MENTION OF MVFR
CONDITIONS AT THESE TAF SITES...AND VFR ELSEWHERE. SHOULD THE MID
LEVEL CLOUDS FAIL TO FORM OR BE LESS EXTENSIVE THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST...THEN GROUND FOG AND ASSOCIATED IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL
BECOME MORE PROBABLE.

AFTER ANY POSSIBLE LOW CLOUDS/FOG BURN OFF BETWEEN
11Z-13Z/WED...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN...WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS
WITH BASES GENERALLY BETWEEN 4000-6000 FT AGL.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE SE THIS AFTERNOON AT 5-10
KT...THEN BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE TO CALM ONCE AGAIN AROUND OR JUST
AFTER SUNSET. WINDS WILL BECOME SE TO S BY MID MORNING WED...AT 5-10
KT.

OUTLOOK...

WED NT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU-THU NT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRI-SUN: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ANOTHER DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. THE WEATHER WILL
TURN UNSETTLED FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A SLOW MOVING AND WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION. THE BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS
WILL BE TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND WESTERN AND CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S
THIS AFTERNOON WITH A RECOVERY TO 90 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT.
MINIMUM VALUES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS THIS WEEK.
ANOTHER DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. THE WEATHER WILL
TURN UNSETTLED FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A SLOW MOVING AND WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION. THE HIGH QPF AMOUNTS WILL
OCCUR TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND WESTERN AND CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY.
MODEL QPF HAS NOT BEEN CONSISTENT AND REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL/BGM
NEAR TERM...IAA/KL/BGM
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY





000
FXUS61 KALY 191725
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
125 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS HIGH
PRESSURE IS IN FIRM CONTROL.  THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED FOR
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A SLOW MOVING AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION. THE BEST CHANCES FOR WET WEATHER WILL
BE TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND WESTERN AND CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 120 PM EDT...MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE REGION...WITH JUST A
FEW PATCHY FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS...AND SOME HIGH THIN CIRRUS
NOTED. 1015MB SURFACE HIGH WAS ANALYZED ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WITH A LIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
WIND.

AFTERNOON TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 75-80 IN MOST VALLEY
AREAS...ON THE HIGHER SIDE OF THIS RANGE FROM ALBANY
SOUTHWARD...WITH GENERALLY 70-75 EXPECTED ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

HERE ARE THE AVERAGE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES FOR AUGUST
THROUGH THE 18TH...
ALBANY NY: -2.0 DEGREES
GLENS FALLS NY: -0.9 DEGREES
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: -2.4 DEGREES
BENNINGTON VT: -2.8 DEGREES
PITTSFIELD MA: -3.5 DEGREES

FOR MORE CLIMATE INFORMATION CHECK OUT OUR CLIMATE PAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY/CLIMATE

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A WEAK AND SLOW
MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA.

A SHORT WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER MID WEST IS EXPECTED TO
CLOSE OFF THIS AFTERNOON...THEN THIS LOW WILL ONLY GRADUALLY SHIFT
EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS IT
ENCOUNTERS THE RIDGING TO ITS EAST. THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL STRENGTHEN
AND SHIFT WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THIS WEEK
EVENTUALLY ESTABLISHING ITSELF OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. THE RIDGE WILL
THEN BUILD NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE WEEK. IN
THE MEANTIME...SURFACE RIDGING WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AS A RESULT THE UPPER
LOW IS EXPECTED TO OPEN THURSDAY AND MOVE ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. THE
RESULT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE FOR GREATER CHANCES FOR STORMS
TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND
WESTERN/CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY. CHANCES WILL SPREAD FARTHER EAST THURSDAY
HOWEVER THE ALREADY RATHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL BE WEAKENING FURTHER.
CHANCES FOR THUNDER SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY WHERE HIGHER DEW POINTS WILL HELP YIELD GREATER
INSTABILITY.

SEASONABLY WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY...WITH A RETURN TO COOLER SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL VALUES
FOR THURSDAY. OVERALL THE GUIDANCE SEEMS REASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO FEATURE IMPROVING WEATHER FOR THE
CLOSE OF THE WORK WEEK AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM ERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS
AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER.

FRIDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT...A REX BLOCK SETS UP OVER ERN CANADA AND THE
NORTHEAST WITH A CLOSED H500 ANTICYCLONE OVER N-CNTRL QUEBEC...AND
JUST EAST OF HUDSON BAY.  A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION AND PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST.  THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL
LOW AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND UPPER MID
ATLANTIC REGION MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.  H850 TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE +11C TO +13C RANGE.  EXPECT HIGHS TO BE IN THE MID TO U70S IN
THE VALLEYS...AND U60S TO L70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.  THE SHOWERS
WILL DIMINISH SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION IN THE EVENING
WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.

SATURDAY TO SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES IN FROM ERN QUEBEC
NEW BRUNSWICK.  A BROAD CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW FORMS WELL EAST TO
SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD AND THE GULF OR MAINE.  AN H500 RIDGE BUILDS
IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND SE
CANADA.  DRY WX IS EXPECTED BASED ON THE LATEST ECMWF/GFS/WPC
GUIDANCE...AS THE UPSTREAM RIDGE LOOKS TO DOMINATE WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPS EXPECTED WITH M60S TO L70S FOR HIGHS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...AND MID TO U70S OVER THE VALLEYS.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S
WITH SOME SPOTTY U40S OVER THE HIGH PEAKS.  HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY COMFORTABLE WITH SFC DEWPTS GENERALLY IN THE
50S TO L60S.  AN ONSHORE FLOW OF MARITIME AIR WILL IMPACT THE REGION
WITH THE SFC HIGH SITUATED TO THE NORTH AND EAST.

MONDAY...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM SOUTHEAST
CANADA...THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND THE CNTRL MS RIVER VALLEY.  A
WEAK WARM FRONT MAY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WITH AN INCREASE OF
CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER HUMIDITY LEVELS...BUT A DRY FCST HAS BEEN
MAINTAINED BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE.  TEMPS SHOULD FINISH NEAR
NORMAL FOR THE START OF THE WEEK...AS H850 TEMPS INCREASE TO +13C TO
+15C...AND HIGHS IN THE U70S TO L80S WILL BE COMMON IN THE VALLEYS
WITH 70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON WILL
SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT...AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION ON WEDNESDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
THEREAFTER...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF SOME GROUND FOG
DEVELOPMENT...PARTICULARLY AT KGFL AND KPSF...BETWEEN 07Z-11Z/WED.
HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS DEVELOP AND/OR
PERSIST FOR A PERIOD OVERNIGHT...WHICH COULD MITIGATE THE EXTENT OF
FOG DEVELOPMENT. AT THIS TIME...HAVE ONLY INCLUDED MENTION OF MVFR
CONDITIONS AT THESE TAF SITES...AND VFR ELSEWHERE. SHOULD THE MID
LEVEL CLOUDS FAIL TO FORM OR BE LESS EXTENSIVE THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST...THEN GROUND FOG AND ASSOCIATED IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL
BECOME MORE PROBABLE.

AFTER ANY POSSIBLE LOW CLOUDS/FOG BURN OFF BETWEEN
11Z-13Z/WED...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN...WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS
WITH BASES GENERALLY BETWEEN 4000-6000 FT AGL.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE SE THIS AFTERNOON AT 5-10
KT...THEN BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE TO CALM ONCE AGAIN AROUND OR JUST
AFTER SUNSET. WINDS WILL BECOME SE TO S BY MID MORNING WED...AT 5-10
KT.

OUTLOOK...

WED NT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU-THU NT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRI-SUN: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ANOTHER DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. THE WEATHER WILL
TURN UNSETTLED FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A SLOW MOVING AND WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION. THE BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS
WILL BE TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND WESTERN AND CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S
THIS AFTERNOON WITH A RECOVERY TO 90 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT.
MINIMUM VALUES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS THIS WEEK.
ANOTHER DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. THE WEATHER WILL
TURN UNSETTLED FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A SLOW MOVING AND WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION. THE HIGH QPF AMOUNTS WILL
OCCUR TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND WESTERN AND CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY.
MODEL QPF HAS NOT BEEN CONSISTENT AND REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL/BGM
NEAR TERM...IAA/KL/BGM
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY






000
FXUS61 KOKX 191711
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
111 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE REGION`S
WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FCST ON TRACK. NICE LI SOUND BREEZE CONVERGENCE SEEN ON KOKX AND
BETTER YET ON TJFK WITH STRATO CU RESULTING. FEATURE IS FAIRLY
STATIONARY (OR EVEN DRIFTING SOUTH). SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS
CLOUDS THOUGH ARE SLOWLY MIXING OUT.

TEMPS AT KLDJ (LINDEN) LOOK A BIT HIGH BASED COMPARED TO
SURROUNDING MESONET STATIONS.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
12Z MODELS CONTINUING TO KEEP PASSING LOW PRES SE OF THE CWA AND
CONVECTIVE PCPN W OF THE CWA. WILL KEPT THE FCST DRY.

RADIATION FOG SEEMS LIKELY OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY IN THE PINE
BARRENS AND INTERIOR VALLEYS WED MRNG. TEMPS A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE...WHICH ARE CLOSE TO CLIMO DURING THE DAY BUT A FEW
DEGREES BLW NORMAL AT NGT.

&&


.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THIS TIME FRAME WILL FEATURE COOLER THAN NORMAL BUT MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS.

IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS...A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS OUR AREA THURSDAY...PASSING JUST SOUTHEAST
FRIDAY. THIS TROUGH DEEPENS SLIGHTLY AND REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS
TO THE NORTH OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME.

AT THE SFC...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS TO THE WEST AS A SERIES OF
WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTERS RIDE ALONG IT. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTHEAST RIDGES SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN POPS FOR WESTERN LOCATIONS LATE AT NIGHT AND THROUGH THURSDAY.
POSSIBLE SHOWERS CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...SETTLING SOUTHEAST.
THEREAFTER...BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WOULD BE TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...CLOSER TO THE LOW AND FRONT.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THIS TIME
FRAME DUE TO AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS...COOLER TEMPS ALOFT
AND PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW. MAX TEMPS MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE 80
DEGREE MARK NEAR NYC METRO...WITH WIDESPREAD 70S ELSEWHERE. LOWS AT
NIGHT IN THE 50S AND 60S...AGAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

A SLIGHT MODERATION IN TEMPS BACK TO NORMAL IS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS HEIGHTS RISE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST TO OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST BY WED MORNING...WHILE WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES
TO THE SOUTH.

SEA BREEZES ARE IN AT KJFK/KISP/KGON AS OF 17Z...AND ARE RIGHT ON
DOORSTEP OF KEWR WHICH SHOULD SWITCH TO SOUTHERLY BY 18Z. EASTERLY
FLOW OFF LONG ISLAND SOUND IS HANGING IN A LITTLE LONGER AS USUAL
AT KLGA AND ALSO KBDR...THINK KBDR WILL ALSO SWITCH OVER TO SE-S
BY 18Z BUT KLGA NOT UNTIL 21Z-22Z.

LIGHT SE-S FLOW THIS EVENING SHOULD GO LIGHT/VARIABLE OVERNIGHT
AND THEN EASTERLY AGAIN BY WED MORNING. EXPECT REPEAT PERFORMANCE
OF SE-S SEA BREEZES AT COASTAL TERMINALS TOWARD THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS FOR 18Z TAF.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: UNSCHEDULED AMD MAY BE NECESSARY LATER ON
TO FINE-TUNE ARRIVAL OF SOUTHERLY OCEAN SEA BREEZE.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS FOR 18Z TAF.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS FOR 18Z TAF.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS FOR 18Z TAF.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS FOR 18Z TAF.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WED THROUGH SAT...
.WED AFTERNOON-THU...AN ISOLD SHOWER/TSTM POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN
TERMINALS.
.THU NIGHT-FRI...CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CONDS.
.SAT-SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BLW SCA LVLS THRU WED.

A PERSISTENT EASTERLY WIND IS EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. WINDS INCREASE SLIGHTLY FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO
THE SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER...DO NOT
EXPECT WIND SPEEDS TO REACH SCA CRITERIA...OR 25 KT. SEAS MAY BUILD
IN RESPONSE...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 5 FT OVER THE OCEAN WATERS PER
WAVE WATCH III.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN THRU THE WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TONGUE
NEAR TERM...TONGUE
SHORT TERM...JMC/TONGUE
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...GOODMAN
MARINE...GOODMAN/TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/TONGUE








000
FXUS61 KOKX 191711
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
111 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE REGION`S
WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FCST ON TRACK. NICE LI SOUND BREEZE CONVERGENCE SEEN ON KOKX AND
BETTER YET ON TJFK WITH STRATO CU RESULTING. FEATURE IS FAIRLY
STATIONARY (OR EVEN DRIFTING SOUTH). SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS
CLOUDS THOUGH ARE SLOWLY MIXING OUT.

TEMPS AT KLDJ (LINDEN) LOOK A BIT HIGH BASED COMPARED TO
SURROUNDING MESONET STATIONS.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
12Z MODELS CONTINUING TO KEEP PASSING LOW PRES SE OF THE CWA AND
CONVECTIVE PCPN W OF THE CWA. WILL KEPT THE FCST DRY.

RADIATION FOG SEEMS LIKELY OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY IN THE PINE
BARRENS AND INTERIOR VALLEYS WED MRNG. TEMPS A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE...WHICH ARE CLOSE TO CLIMO DURING THE DAY BUT A FEW
DEGREES BLW NORMAL AT NGT.

&&


.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THIS TIME FRAME WILL FEATURE COOLER THAN NORMAL BUT MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS.

IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS...A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS OUR AREA THURSDAY...PASSING JUST SOUTHEAST
FRIDAY. THIS TROUGH DEEPENS SLIGHTLY AND REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS
TO THE NORTH OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME.

AT THE SFC...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS TO THE WEST AS A SERIES OF
WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTERS RIDE ALONG IT. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTHEAST RIDGES SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN POPS FOR WESTERN LOCATIONS LATE AT NIGHT AND THROUGH THURSDAY.
POSSIBLE SHOWERS CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...SETTLING SOUTHEAST.
THEREAFTER...BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WOULD BE TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...CLOSER TO THE LOW AND FRONT.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THIS TIME
FRAME DUE TO AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS...COOLER TEMPS ALOFT
AND PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW. MAX TEMPS MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE 80
DEGREE MARK NEAR NYC METRO...WITH WIDESPREAD 70S ELSEWHERE. LOWS AT
NIGHT IN THE 50S AND 60S...AGAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

A SLIGHT MODERATION IN TEMPS BACK TO NORMAL IS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS HEIGHTS RISE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST TO OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST BY WED MORNING...WHILE WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES
TO THE SOUTH.

SEA BREEZES ARE IN AT KJFK/KISP/KGON AS OF 17Z...AND ARE RIGHT ON
DOORSTEP OF KEWR WHICH SHOULD SWITCH TO SOUTHERLY BY 18Z. EASTERLY
FLOW OFF LONG ISLAND SOUND IS HANGING IN A LITTLE LONGER AS USUAL
AT KLGA AND ALSO KBDR...THINK KBDR WILL ALSO SWITCH OVER TO SE-S
BY 18Z BUT KLGA NOT UNTIL 21Z-22Z.

LIGHT SE-S FLOW THIS EVENING SHOULD GO LIGHT/VARIABLE OVERNIGHT
AND THEN EASTERLY AGAIN BY WED MORNING. EXPECT REPEAT PERFORMANCE
OF SE-S SEA BREEZES AT COASTAL TERMINALS TOWARD THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS FOR 18Z TAF.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: UNSCHEDULED AMD MAY BE NECESSARY LATER ON
TO FINE-TUNE ARRIVAL OF SOUTHERLY OCEAN SEA BREEZE.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS FOR 18Z TAF.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS FOR 18Z TAF.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS FOR 18Z TAF.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS FOR 18Z TAF.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WED THROUGH SAT...
.WED AFTERNOON-THU...AN ISOLD SHOWER/TSTM POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN
TERMINALS.
.THU NIGHT-FRI...CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CONDS.
.SAT-SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BLW SCA LVLS THRU WED.

A PERSISTENT EASTERLY WIND IS EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. WINDS INCREASE SLIGHTLY FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO
THE SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER...DO NOT
EXPECT WIND SPEEDS TO REACH SCA CRITERIA...OR 25 KT. SEAS MAY BUILD
IN RESPONSE...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 5 FT OVER THE OCEAN WATERS PER
WAVE WATCH III.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN THRU THE WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TONGUE
NEAR TERM...TONGUE
SHORT TERM...JMC/TONGUE
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...GOODMAN
MARINE...GOODMAN/TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/TONGUE








000
FXUS61 KOKX 191711
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
111 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE REGION`S
WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FCST ON TRACK. NICE LI SOUND BREEZE CONVERGENCE SEEN ON KOKX AND
BETTER YET ON TJFK WITH STRATO CU RESULTING. FEATURE IS FAIRLY
STATIONARY (OR EVEN DRIFTING SOUTH). SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS
CLOUDS THOUGH ARE SLOWLY MIXING OUT.

TEMPS AT KLDJ (LINDEN) LOOK A BIT HIGH BASED COMPARED TO
SURROUNDING MESONET STATIONS.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
12Z MODELS CONTINUING TO KEEP PASSING LOW PRES SE OF THE CWA AND
CONVECTIVE PCPN W OF THE CWA. WILL KEPT THE FCST DRY.

RADIATION FOG SEEMS LIKELY OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY IN THE PINE
BARRENS AND INTERIOR VALLEYS WED MRNG. TEMPS A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE...WHICH ARE CLOSE TO CLIMO DURING THE DAY BUT A FEW
DEGREES BLW NORMAL AT NGT.

&&


.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THIS TIME FRAME WILL FEATURE COOLER THAN NORMAL BUT MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS.

IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS...A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS OUR AREA THURSDAY...PASSING JUST SOUTHEAST
FRIDAY. THIS TROUGH DEEPENS SLIGHTLY AND REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS
TO THE NORTH OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME.

AT THE SFC...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS TO THE WEST AS A SERIES OF
WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTERS RIDE ALONG IT. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTHEAST RIDGES SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN POPS FOR WESTERN LOCATIONS LATE AT NIGHT AND THROUGH THURSDAY.
POSSIBLE SHOWERS CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...SETTLING SOUTHEAST.
THEREAFTER...BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WOULD BE TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...CLOSER TO THE LOW AND FRONT.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THIS TIME
FRAME DUE TO AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS...COOLER TEMPS ALOFT
AND PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW. MAX TEMPS MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE 80
DEGREE MARK NEAR NYC METRO...WITH WIDESPREAD 70S ELSEWHERE. LOWS AT
NIGHT IN THE 50S AND 60S...AGAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

A SLIGHT MODERATION IN TEMPS BACK TO NORMAL IS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS HEIGHTS RISE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST TO OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST BY WED MORNING...WHILE WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES
TO THE SOUTH.

SEA BREEZES ARE IN AT KJFK/KISP/KGON AS OF 17Z...AND ARE RIGHT ON
DOORSTEP OF KEWR WHICH SHOULD SWITCH TO SOUTHERLY BY 18Z. EASTERLY
FLOW OFF LONG ISLAND SOUND IS HANGING IN A LITTLE LONGER AS USUAL
AT KLGA AND ALSO KBDR...THINK KBDR WILL ALSO SWITCH OVER TO SE-S
BY 18Z BUT KLGA NOT UNTIL 21Z-22Z.

LIGHT SE-S FLOW THIS EVENING SHOULD GO LIGHT/VARIABLE OVERNIGHT
AND THEN EASTERLY AGAIN BY WED MORNING. EXPECT REPEAT PERFORMANCE
OF SE-S SEA BREEZES AT COASTAL TERMINALS TOWARD THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS FOR 18Z TAF.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: UNSCHEDULED AMD MAY BE NECESSARY LATER ON
TO FINE-TUNE ARRIVAL OF SOUTHERLY OCEAN SEA BREEZE.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS FOR 18Z TAF.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS FOR 18Z TAF.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS FOR 18Z TAF.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS FOR 18Z TAF.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WED THROUGH SAT...
.WED AFTERNOON-THU...AN ISOLD SHOWER/TSTM POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN
TERMINALS.
.THU NIGHT-FRI...CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CONDS.
.SAT-SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BLW SCA LVLS THRU WED.

A PERSISTENT EASTERLY WIND IS EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. WINDS INCREASE SLIGHTLY FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO
THE SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER...DO NOT
EXPECT WIND SPEEDS TO REACH SCA CRITERIA...OR 25 KT. SEAS MAY BUILD
IN RESPONSE...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 5 FT OVER THE OCEAN WATERS PER
WAVE WATCH III.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN THRU THE WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TONGUE
NEAR TERM...TONGUE
SHORT TERM...JMC/TONGUE
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...GOODMAN
MARINE...GOODMAN/TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/TONGUE








000
FXUS61 KOKX 191711
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
111 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE REGION`S
WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FCST ON TRACK. NICE LI SOUND BREEZE CONVERGENCE SEEN ON KOKX AND
BETTER YET ON TJFK WITH STRATO CU RESULTING. FEATURE IS FAIRLY
STATIONARY (OR EVEN DRIFTING SOUTH). SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS
CLOUDS THOUGH ARE SLOWLY MIXING OUT.

TEMPS AT KLDJ (LINDEN) LOOK A BIT HIGH BASED COMPARED TO
SURROUNDING MESONET STATIONS.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
12Z MODELS CONTINUING TO KEEP PASSING LOW PRES SE OF THE CWA AND
CONVECTIVE PCPN W OF THE CWA. WILL KEPT THE FCST DRY.

RADIATION FOG SEEMS LIKELY OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY IN THE PINE
BARRENS AND INTERIOR VALLEYS WED MRNG. TEMPS A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE...WHICH ARE CLOSE TO CLIMO DURING THE DAY BUT A FEW
DEGREES BLW NORMAL AT NGT.

&&


.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THIS TIME FRAME WILL FEATURE COOLER THAN NORMAL BUT MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS.

IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS...A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS OUR AREA THURSDAY...PASSING JUST SOUTHEAST
FRIDAY. THIS TROUGH DEEPENS SLIGHTLY AND REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS
TO THE NORTH OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME.

AT THE SFC...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS TO THE WEST AS A SERIES OF
WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTERS RIDE ALONG IT. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTHEAST RIDGES SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN POPS FOR WESTERN LOCATIONS LATE AT NIGHT AND THROUGH THURSDAY.
POSSIBLE SHOWERS CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...SETTLING SOUTHEAST.
THEREAFTER...BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WOULD BE TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...CLOSER TO THE LOW AND FRONT.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THIS TIME
FRAME DUE TO AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS...COOLER TEMPS ALOFT
AND PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW. MAX TEMPS MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE 80
DEGREE MARK NEAR NYC METRO...WITH WIDESPREAD 70S ELSEWHERE. LOWS AT
NIGHT IN THE 50S AND 60S...AGAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

A SLIGHT MODERATION IN TEMPS BACK TO NORMAL IS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS HEIGHTS RISE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST TO OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST BY WED MORNING...WHILE WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES
TO THE SOUTH.

SEA BREEZES ARE IN AT KJFK/KISP/KGON AS OF 17Z...AND ARE RIGHT ON
DOORSTEP OF KEWR WHICH SHOULD SWITCH TO SOUTHERLY BY 18Z. EASTERLY
FLOW OFF LONG ISLAND SOUND IS HANGING IN A LITTLE LONGER AS USUAL
AT KLGA AND ALSO KBDR...THINK KBDR WILL ALSO SWITCH OVER TO SE-S
BY 18Z BUT KLGA NOT UNTIL 21Z-22Z.

LIGHT SE-S FLOW THIS EVENING SHOULD GO LIGHT/VARIABLE OVERNIGHT
AND THEN EASTERLY AGAIN BY WED MORNING. EXPECT REPEAT PERFORMANCE
OF SE-S SEA BREEZES AT COASTAL TERMINALS TOWARD THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS FOR 18Z TAF.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: UNSCHEDULED AMD MAY BE NECESSARY LATER ON
TO FINE-TUNE ARRIVAL OF SOUTHERLY OCEAN SEA BREEZE.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS FOR 18Z TAF.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS FOR 18Z TAF.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS FOR 18Z TAF.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS FOR 18Z TAF.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WED THROUGH SAT...
.WED AFTERNOON-THU...AN ISOLD SHOWER/TSTM POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN
TERMINALS.
.THU NIGHT-FRI...CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CONDS.
.SAT-SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BLW SCA LVLS THRU WED.

A PERSISTENT EASTERLY WIND IS EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. WINDS INCREASE SLIGHTLY FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO
THE SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER...DO NOT
EXPECT WIND SPEEDS TO REACH SCA CRITERIA...OR 25 KT. SEAS MAY BUILD
IN RESPONSE...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 5 FT OVER THE OCEAN WATERS PER
WAVE WATCH III.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN THRU THE WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TONGUE
NEAR TERM...TONGUE
SHORT TERM...JMC/TONGUE
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...GOODMAN
MARINE...GOODMAN/TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/TONGUE








000
FXUS61 KALY 191422
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1022 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER DRY DAY IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN
CONTROL. WITH THE HELP OF ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
TO SEASONABLE LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON. THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED
FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A SLOW MOVING AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION. THE BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE TO
THE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND WESTERN AND CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1025 AM EDT...SKIES REMAIN GENERALLY SUNNY ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH JUST A FEW PATCHY FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS...AND
SOME HIGH THIN CIRRUS NOTED. WE EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TO PREVAIL
INTO THIS AFTERNOON...WITH JUST SOME OCCASIONAL CU AND/OR PATCHY
HIGH CLOUDS PASSING THRU AT TIMES.

AFTERNOON TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 75-80 IN MOST VALLEY
AREAS...ON THE HIGHER SIDE OF THIS RANGE FROM ALBANY
SOUTHWARD...WITH GENERALLY 70-75 EXPECTED ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

HERE ARE THE AVERAGE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES FOR AUGUST
THROUGH THE 18TH...
ALBANY NY: -2.0 DEGREES
GLENS FALLS NY: -0.9 DEGREES
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: -2.4 DEGREES
BENNINGTON VT: -2.8 DEGREES
PITTSFIELD MA: -3.5 DEGREES

FOR MORE CLIMATE INFORMATION CHECK OUT OUR CLIMATE PAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY/CLIMATE

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A WEAK AND SLOW
MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA.

A SHORT WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER MID WEST IS EXPECTED TO
CLOSE OFF THIS AFTERNOON...THEN THIS LOW WILL ONLY GRADUALLY SHIFT
EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS IT
ENCOUNTERS THE RIDGING TO ITS EAST. THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL STRENGTHEN
AND SHIFT WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THIS WEEK
EVENTUALLY ESTABLISHING ITSELF OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. THE RIDGE WILL
THEN BUILD NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE WEEK. IN
THE MEANTIME...SURFACE RIDGING WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AS A RESULT THE UPPER
LOW IS EXPECTED TO OPEN THURSDAY AND MOVE ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. THE
RESULT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE FOR GREATER CHANCES FOR STORMS
TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND
WESTERN/CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY. CHANCES WILL SPREAD FARTHER EAST THURSDAY
HOWEVER THE ALREADY RATHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL BE WEAKENING FURTHER.
CHANCES FOR THUNDER SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY WHERE HIGHER DEW POINTS WILL HELP YIELD GREATER
INSTABILITY.

SEASONABLY WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY...WITH A RETURN TO COOLER SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL VALUES
FOR THURSDAY. OVERALL THE GUIDANCE SEEMS REASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO FEATURE IMPROVING WEATHER FOR THE
CLOSE OF THE WORK WEEK AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM ERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS
AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER.

FRIDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT...A REX BLOCK SETS UP OVER ERN CANADA AND THE
NORTHEAST WITH A CLOSED H500 ANTICYCLONE OVER N-CNTRL QUEBEC...AND
JUST EAST OF HUDSON BAY.  A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION AND PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST.  THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL
LOW AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND UPPER MID
ATLANTIC REGION MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.  H850 TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE +11C TO +13C RANGE.  EXPECT HIGHS TO BE IN THE MID TO U70S IN
THE VALLEYS...AND U60S TO L70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.  THE SHOWERS
WILL DIMINISH SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION IN THE EVENING
WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.

SATURDAY TO SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES IN FROM ERN QUEBEC
NEW BRUNSWICK.  A BROAD CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW FORMS WELL EAST TO
SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD AND THE GULF OR MAINE.  AN H500 RIDGE BUILDS
IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND SE
CANADA.  DRY WX IS EXPECTED BASED ON THE LATEST ECMWF/GFS/WPC
GUIDANCE...AS THE UPSTREAM RIDGE LOOKS TO DOMINATE WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPS EXPECTED WITH M60S TO L70S FOR HIGHS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...AND MID TO U70S OVER THE VALLEYS.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S
WITH SOME SPOTTY U40S OVER THE HIGH PEAKS.  HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY COMFORTABLE WITH SFC DEWPTS GENERALLY IN THE
50S TO L60S.  AN ONSHORE FLOW OF MARITIME AIR WILL IMPACT THE REGION
WITH THE SFC HIGH SITUATED TO THE NORTH AND EAST.

MONDAY...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM SOUTHEAST
CANADA...THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND THE CNTRL MS RIVER VALLEY.  A
WEAK WARM FRONT MAY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WITH AN INCREASE OF
CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER HUMIDITY LEVELS...BUT A DRY FCST HAS BEEN
MAINTAINED BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE.  TEMPS SHOULD FINISH NEAR
NORMAL FOR THE START OF THE WEEK...AS H850 TEMPS INCREASE TO +13C TO
+15C...AND HIGHS IN THE U70S TO L80S WILL BE COMMON IN THE VALLEYS
WITH 70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND TODAY BEFORE
SHIFTING OFFSHORE TONIGHT.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH TODAY...WITH JUST A FEW
CUMULUS AND A FEW-SCT CIRRUS AROUND DUE TO THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE
FROM THE SFC ANTICYCLONE.

RADIATIONAL MIST/FOG AND SOME STRATUS IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AGAIN
WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT KGFL AND KPSF...AND
MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT KALB AND KPOU SHORTLY BEFORE OR JUST
AFTER 06Z/WED.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM THIS MORNING...AND BE VARIABLE IN
DIRECTION AT 6 KTS OR LESS DURING THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE BECOMING
LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WED TO WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY TO SATURDAY:NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ANOTHER DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. THE WEATHER WILL
TURN UNSETTLED FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A SLOW MOVING AND WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION. THE BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS
WILL BE TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND WESTERN AND CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S
THIS AFTERNOON WITH A RECOVERY TO 90 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT.
MINIMUM VALUES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS THIS WEEK.
ANOTHER DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. THE WEATHER WILL
TURN UNSETTLED FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A SLOW MOVING AND WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION. THE HIGH QPF AMOUNTS WILL
OCCUR TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND WESTERN AND CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY.
MODEL QPF HAS NOT BEEN CONSISTENT AND REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL
NEAR TERM...IAA/KL
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA







000
FXUS61 KALY 191422
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1022 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER DRY DAY IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN
CONTROL. WITH THE HELP OF ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
TO SEASONABLE LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON. THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED
FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A SLOW MOVING AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION. THE BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE TO
THE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND WESTERN AND CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1025 AM EDT...SKIES REMAIN GENERALLY SUNNY ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH JUST A FEW PATCHY FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS...AND
SOME HIGH THIN CIRRUS NOTED. WE EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TO PREVAIL
INTO THIS AFTERNOON...WITH JUST SOME OCCASIONAL CU AND/OR PATCHY
HIGH CLOUDS PASSING THRU AT TIMES.

AFTERNOON TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 75-80 IN MOST VALLEY
AREAS...ON THE HIGHER SIDE OF THIS RANGE FROM ALBANY
SOUTHWARD...WITH GENERALLY 70-75 EXPECTED ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

HERE ARE THE AVERAGE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES FOR AUGUST
THROUGH THE 18TH...
ALBANY NY: -2.0 DEGREES
GLENS FALLS NY: -0.9 DEGREES
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: -2.4 DEGREES
BENNINGTON VT: -2.8 DEGREES
PITTSFIELD MA: -3.5 DEGREES

FOR MORE CLIMATE INFORMATION CHECK OUT OUR CLIMATE PAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY/CLIMATE

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A WEAK AND SLOW
MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA.

A SHORT WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER MID WEST IS EXPECTED TO
CLOSE OFF THIS AFTERNOON...THEN THIS LOW WILL ONLY GRADUALLY SHIFT
EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS IT
ENCOUNTERS THE RIDGING TO ITS EAST. THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL STRENGTHEN
AND SHIFT WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THIS WEEK
EVENTUALLY ESTABLISHING ITSELF OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. THE RIDGE WILL
THEN BUILD NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE WEEK. IN
THE MEANTIME...SURFACE RIDGING WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AS A RESULT THE UPPER
LOW IS EXPECTED TO OPEN THURSDAY AND MOVE ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. THE
RESULT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE FOR GREATER CHANCES FOR STORMS
TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND
WESTERN/CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY. CHANCES WILL SPREAD FARTHER EAST THURSDAY
HOWEVER THE ALREADY RATHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL BE WEAKENING FURTHER.
CHANCES FOR THUNDER SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY WHERE HIGHER DEW POINTS WILL HELP YIELD GREATER
INSTABILITY.

SEASONABLY WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY...WITH A RETURN TO COOLER SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL VALUES
FOR THURSDAY. OVERALL THE GUIDANCE SEEMS REASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO FEATURE IMPROVING WEATHER FOR THE
CLOSE OF THE WORK WEEK AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM ERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS
AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER.

FRIDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT...A REX BLOCK SETS UP OVER ERN CANADA AND THE
NORTHEAST WITH A CLOSED H500 ANTICYCLONE OVER N-CNTRL QUEBEC...AND
JUST EAST OF HUDSON BAY.  A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION AND PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST.  THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL
LOW AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND UPPER MID
ATLANTIC REGION MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.  H850 TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE +11C TO +13C RANGE.  EXPECT HIGHS TO BE IN THE MID TO U70S IN
THE VALLEYS...AND U60S TO L70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.  THE SHOWERS
WILL DIMINISH SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION IN THE EVENING
WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.

SATURDAY TO SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES IN FROM ERN QUEBEC
NEW BRUNSWICK.  A BROAD CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW FORMS WELL EAST TO
SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD AND THE GULF OR MAINE.  AN H500 RIDGE BUILDS
IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND SE
CANADA.  DRY WX IS EXPECTED BASED ON THE LATEST ECMWF/GFS/WPC
GUIDANCE...AS THE UPSTREAM RIDGE LOOKS TO DOMINATE WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPS EXPECTED WITH M60S TO L70S FOR HIGHS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...AND MID TO U70S OVER THE VALLEYS.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S
WITH SOME SPOTTY U40S OVER THE HIGH PEAKS.  HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY COMFORTABLE WITH SFC DEWPTS GENERALLY IN THE
50S TO L60S.  AN ONSHORE FLOW OF MARITIME AIR WILL IMPACT THE REGION
WITH THE SFC HIGH SITUATED TO THE NORTH AND EAST.

MONDAY...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM SOUTHEAST
CANADA...THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND THE CNTRL MS RIVER VALLEY.  A
WEAK WARM FRONT MAY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WITH AN INCREASE OF
CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER HUMIDITY LEVELS...BUT A DRY FCST HAS BEEN
MAINTAINED BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE.  TEMPS SHOULD FINISH NEAR
NORMAL FOR THE START OF THE WEEK...AS H850 TEMPS INCREASE TO +13C TO
+15C...AND HIGHS IN THE U70S TO L80S WILL BE COMMON IN THE VALLEYS
WITH 70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND TODAY BEFORE
SHIFTING OFFSHORE TONIGHT.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH TODAY...WITH JUST A FEW
CUMULUS AND A FEW-SCT CIRRUS AROUND DUE TO THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE
FROM THE SFC ANTICYCLONE.

RADIATIONAL MIST/FOG AND SOME STRATUS IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AGAIN
WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT KGFL AND KPSF...AND
MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT KALB AND KPOU SHORTLY BEFORE OR JUST
AFTER 06Z/WED.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM THIS MORNING...AND BE VARIABLE IN
DIRECTION AT 6 KTS OR LESS DURING THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE BECOMING
LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WED TO WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY TO SATURDAY:NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ANOTHER DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. THE WEATHER WILL
TURN UNSETTLED FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A SLOW MOVING AND WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION. THE BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS
WILL BE TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND WESTERN AND CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S
THIS AFTERNOON WITH A RECOVERY TO 90 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT.
MINIMUM VALUES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS THIS WEEK.
ANOTHER DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. THE WEATHER WILL
TURN UNSETTLED FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A SLOW MOVING AND WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION. THE HIGH QPF AMOUNTS WILL
OCCUR TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND WESTERN AND CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY.
MODEL QPF HAS NOT BEEN CONSISTENT AND REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL
NEAR TERM...IAA/KL
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA








000
FXUS61 KBOX 191405
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1005 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS
WEEKEND WITH REGARDS TO THE PROXIMITY OF A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE
TO NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

10 AM UPDATE...

ATYPICAL WEATHER FOR AUGUST. BELOW-SEASONABLE CONDITIONS. LOW
HUMIDITY. SUCH WEATHER WOULD BE EXPECTED IN LATE SEPTEMBER INTO
EARLY AUGUST!

A QUIET WEATHER DAY AS A SYNOPTIC LOW PRESSURE CENTER SWEEPS E
OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC...WELL OFFSHORE OF S NEW ENGLAND. MID-LEVEL
RIDGE TO THE W AHEAD OF A LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
ALLOW FOR CONTINUED HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS AT THE SURFACE.
ANTICIPATE THE SUBSEQUENT THERMAL AND WEAK GRADIENT DIFFERENCE TO
RESULT IN AN ONSHORE SEA-BREEZE GETTING WELL INTO THE INTERIOR OF
NEW ENGLAND BY LATE AFTERNOON. ALREADY OBSERVING SOME ONSHORE FLOW
ALONG THE COASTLINES.

SLIGHTLY-BELOW SEASONABLE HIGHS BY A DEGREE OR TWO BENEATH MOSTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS /A FEW WISPS OF CIRRUS ALONG WITH DIURNAL CUMULUS
ANTICIPATED AS NOTED BY THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER/. WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES WARM UP TO AROUND THE UPPER-70S. COOLER ALONG THE
SHORELINES WITH ONSHORE SEA- BREEZES. COUPLED WITH CONTINUED LOW
HUMIDITY...EXPECT A PLEASANT DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...

TONIGHT...
MID LVL RIDGE CONTINUES TO DECLINE AS WEAK MID LVL CUTOFF PUSHES
TO THE E. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTERS THAT SUBSIDENCE IS
LIKELY TO PREVAIL BETWEEN THIS CUTOFF AND A SECOND IN ATLANTIC
CANADA. THEREFORE...EXCEPT FOR MAYBE SOME HIGH CLOUDS LEFTOVER
FROM CONVECTION WELL TO THE W...ANOTHER NIGHT WITH CONDITIONS
FAVORABLE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED. IN FACT...MOS IS
STILL LIKELY A LITTLE TOO WARM IF SKIES ARE ALLOWED TO CLEAR
ENOUGH ACROSS THE NW VALLEYS. THEREFORE...DROPPED MINS BY A FEW
DEGREES...ALTHOUGH EVEN THIS EFFORT MAY NOT BE ENOUGH.

WED...
ALTHOUGH CORE OF HIGH PRES WILL MOVE E OF THE REGION ON
WED...STILL NOTE ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE TRAPPED BETWEEN THE CUTOFFS
THAT INVERTED RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL. IN FACT...NOTE
ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE THROUGH THE COLUMN ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS THAT
EVEN AS SHOWERS/T-STORMS DEVELOP ACROSS PA AND NY...THAT THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY OUT OF EVEN THE WRN REACHES OF NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH THE DAY. THE FACT THAT THE OVERALL COLUMN IS RELATIVELY
MOISTURE STARVED ADDS CONFIDENCE TO MAINTAINING A DRY FORECAST.
OTHERWISE...ALTHOUGH MID LVL TEMPS INCREASE TO AN AVERAGE OF
12-14C...NEAR SHORE LOCATIONS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW
NORMAL DUE TO GRADIENT SUPPORTING E-SE FLOW...LIKELY ASSISTED BY
DIURNAL SEA BREEZES. AREAS IN WRN MA/CT AND SW NH ARE THE MOST
LIKELY TO SEE TEMPS SHIFT INTO THE LOW 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK
* UNCERTAINTY INCREASES THIS WEEKEND WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD OVERALL SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF
THIS WORK WEEK.  MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES ARE STARTING TO
LATCH ONTO THE IDEA OF A HIGH PRESSURE LINGERING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...SHIFTING THE PRIMARY STORM TRACK FARTHER SOUTH.  MODELS
DIVERGE THIS WEEKEND...WITH THE GFS HAVING A MORE COMPACT LONGWAVE
PATTERN THAN THE ECMWF.  THIS LEADS TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATION
OF WHERE A MID-LEVEL CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPS TOWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH
IN TURN IMPACTS THE POSITION OF A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE.

AT THIS TIME...STAYING CLOSER TO A CONSENSUS APPROACH TO MITIGATE
SOME OF THESE DETAIL DIFFERENCES. WHILE IMPORTANT OVERALL...SOME OF
THESE DETAILS HAVE LOW PREDICTABILITY THIS FAR IN ADVANCE.

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MID-LEVEL TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE
MARITIMES...WITH A HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC STRETCHING ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SEASONABLE TO JUST BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY A
FEW SHOWERS MAY BLEED INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY...BUT IT
IS EXPECTED THAT MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN IN NEW YORK
STATE.

THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THIS IS WHERE THE BULK OF THE
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IS. SATURDAY SHOULD STILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES AND DRY
WEATHER. SUNDAY AND MONDAY HAVE THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS
OR RAIN AS EITHER A COLD FRONT OR A COASTAL LOW BRING MOISTURE TO
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD START TO WARM A FEW DEGREES THROUGH
THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...VFR...SEA BREEZES EXPECTED AROUND 15Z.

TONIGHT...
MAINLY VFR. HOWEVER...MAY SEE A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD GROUND FOG
THAN MONDAY NIGHT.

WED...
VFR. SEA BREEZES LIKELY AGAIN...ASSISTED ON E COAST BY E FLOW.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR. LOW
PROBABILITY OF PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

GENERALLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED. FLOW SHIFTS FROM W-NW
TODAY TO THE S LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...THEN TO THE E-SE BY
TOMORROW AS A STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO SPIN UP WELL TO THE SE. WIND
GUSTS MAY APPROACH 15 KT DURING THE DAY ON WED.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. RELATIVELY QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
REGION. LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY OVERNIGHT FOG LIMITING
VISIBILITIES. SEAS MAY INCREASE ON THE OUTER WATERS SATURDAY AS AN
OCEAN STORM PASSES WELL EAST OF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 191405
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1005 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS
WEEKEND WITH REGARDS TO THE PROXIMITY OF A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE
TO NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

10 AM UPDATE...

ATYPICAL WEATHER FOR AUGUST. BELOW-SEASONABLE CONDITIONS. LOW
HUMIDITY. SUCH WEATHER WOULD BE EXPECTED IN LATE SEPTEMBER INTO
EARLY AUGUST!

A QUIET WEATHER DAY AS A SYNOPTIC LOW PRESSURE CENTER SWEEPS E
OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC...WELL OFFSHORE OF S NEW ENGLAND. MID-LEVEL
RIDGE TO THE W AHEAD OF A LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
ALLOW FOR CONTINUED HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS AT THE SURFACE.
ANTICIPATE THE SUBSEQUENT THERMAL AND WEAK GRADIENT DIFFERENCE TO
RESULT IN AN ONSHORE SEA-BREEZE GETTING WELL INTO THE INTERIOR OF
NEW ENGLAND BY LATE AFTERNOON. ALREADY OBSERVING SOME ONSHORE FLOW
ALONG THE COASTLINES.

SLIGHTLY-BELOW SEASONABLE HIGHS BY A DEGREE OR TWO BENEATH MOSTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS /A FEW WISPS OF CIRRUS ALONG WITH DIURNAL CUMULUS
ANTICIPATED AS NOTED BY THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER/. WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES WARM UP TO AROUND THE UPPER-70S. COOLER ALONG THE
SHORELINES WITH ONSHORE SEA- BREEZES. COUPLED WITH CONTINUED LOW
HUMIDITY...EXPECT A PLEASANT DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...

TONIGHT...
MID LVL RIDGE CONTINUES TO DECLINE AS WEAK MID LVL CUTOFF PUSHES
TO THE E. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTERS THAT SUBSIDENCE IS
LIKELY TO PREVAIL BETWEEN THIS CUTOFF AND A SECOND IN ATLANTIC
CANADA. THEREFORE...EXCEPT FOR MAYBE SOME HIGH CLOUDS LEFTOVER
FROM CONVECTION WELL TO THE W...ANOTHER NIGHT WITH CONDITIONS
FAVORABLE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED. IN FACT...MOS IS
STILL LIKELY A LITTLE TOO WARM IF SKIES ARE ALLOWED TO CLEAR
ENOUGH ACROSS THE NW VALLEYS. THEREFORE...DROPPED MINS BY A FEW
DEGREES...ALTHOUGH EVEN THIS EFFORT MAY NOT BE ENOUGH.

WED...
ALTHOUGH CORE OF HIGH PRES WILL MOVE E OF THE REGION ON
WED...STILL NOTE ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE TRAPPED BETWEEN THE CUTOFFS
THAT INVERTED RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL. IN FACT...NOTE
ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE THROUGH THE COLUMN ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS THAT
EVEN AS SHOWERS/T-STORMS DEVELOP ACROSS PA AND NY...THAT THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY OUT OF EVEN THE WRN REACHES OF NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH THE DAY. THE FACT THAT THE OVERALL COLUMN IS RELATIVELY
MOISTURE STARVED ADDS CONFIDENCE TO MAINTAINING A DRY FORECAST.
OTHERWISE...ALTHOUGH MID LVL TEMPS INCREASE TO AN AVERAGE OF
12-14C...NEAR SHORE LOCATIONS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW
NORMAL DUE TO GRADIENT SUPPORTING E-SE FLOW...LIKELY ASSISTED BY
DIURNAL SEA BREEZES. AREAS IN WRN MA/CT AND SW NH ARE THE MOST
LIKELY TO SEE TEMPS SHIFT INTO THE LOW 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK
* UNCERTAINTY INCREASES THIS WEEKEND WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD OVERALL SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF
THIS WORK WEEK.  MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES ARE STARTING TO
LATCH ONTO THE IDEA OF A HIGH PRESSURE LINGERING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...SHIFTING THE PRIMARY STORM TRACK FARTHER SOUTH.  MODELS
DIVERGE THIS WEEKEND...WITH THE GFS HAVING A MORE COMPACT LONGWAVE
PATTERN THAN THE ECMWF.  THIS LEADS TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATION
OF WHERE A MID-LEVEL CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPS TOWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH
IN TURN IMPACTS THE POSITION OF A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE.

AT THIS TIME...STAYING CLOSER TO A CONSENSUS APPROACH TO MITIGATE
SOME OF THESE DETAIL DIFFERENCES. WHILE IMPORTANT OVERALL...SOME OF
THESE DETAILS HAVE LOW PREDICTABILITY THIS FAR IN ADVANCE.

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MID-LEVEL TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE
MARITIMES...WITH A HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC STRETCHING ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SEASONABLE TO JUST BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY A
FEW SHOWERS MAY BLEED INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY...BUT IT
IS EXPECTED THAT MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN IN NEW YORK
STATE.

THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THIS IS WHERE THE BULK OF THE
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IS. SATURDAY SHOULD STILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES AND DRY
WEATHER. SUNDAY AND MONDAY HAVE THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS
OR RAIN AS EITHER A COLD FRONT OR A COASTAL LOW BRING MOISTURE TO
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD START TO WARM A FEW DEGREES THROUGH
THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...VFR...SEA BREEZES EXPECTED AROUND 15Z.

TONIGHT...
MAINLY VFR. HOWEVER...MAY SEE A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD GROUND FOG
THAN MONDAY NIGHT.

WED...
VFR. SEA BREEZES LIKELY AGAIN...ASSISTED ON E COAST BY E FLOW.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR. LOW
PROBABILITY OF PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

GENERALLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED. FLOW SHIFTS FROM W-NW
TODAY TO THE S LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...THEN TO THE E-SE BY
TOMORROW AS A STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO SPIN UP WELL TO THE SE. WIND
GUSTS MAY APPROACH 15 KT DURING THE DAY ON WED.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. RELATIVELY QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
REGION. LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY OVERNIGHT FOG LIMITING
VISIBILITIES. SEAS MAY INCREASE ON THE OUTER WATERS SATURDAY AS AN
OCEAN STORM PASSES WELL EAST OF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 191405
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1005 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS
WEEKEND WITH REGARDS TO THE PROXIMITY OF A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE
TO NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

10 AM UPDATE...

ATYPICAL WEATHER FOR AUGUST. BELOW-SEASONABLE CONDITIONS. LOW
HUMIDITY. SUCH WEATHER WOULD BE EXPECTED IN LATE SEPTEMBER INTO
EARLY AUGUST!

A QUIET WEATHER DAY AS A SYNOPTIC LOW PRESSURE CENTER SWEEPS E
OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC...WELL OFFSHORE OF S NEW ENGLAND. MID-LEVEL
RIDGE TO THE W AHEAD OF A LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
ALLOW FOR CONTINUED HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS AT THE SURFACE.
ANTICIPATE THE SUBSEQUENT THERMAL AND WEAK GRADIENT DIFFERENCE TO
RESULT IN AN ONSHORE SEA-BREEZE GETTING WELL INTO THE INTERIOR OF
NEW ENGLAND BY LATE AFTERNOON. ALREADY OBSERVING SOME ONSHORE FLOW
ALONG THE COASTLINES.

SLIGHTLY-BELOW SEASONABLE HIGHS BY A DEGREE OR TWO BENEATH MOSTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS /A FEW WISPS OF CIRRUS ALONG WITH DIURNAL CUMULUS
ANTICIPATED AS NOTED BY THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER/. WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES WARM UP TO AROUND THE UPPER-70S. COOLER ALONG THE
SHORELINES WITH ONSHORE SEA- BREEZES. COUPLED WITH CONTINUED LOW
HUMIDITY...EXPECT A PLEASANT DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...

TONIGHT...
MID LVL RIDGE CONTINUES TO DECLINE AS WEAK MID LVL CUTOFF PUSHES
TO THE E. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTERS THAT SUBSIDENCE IS
LIKELY TO PREVAIL BETWEEN THIS CUTOFF AND A SECOND IN ATLANTIC
CANADA. THEREFORE...EXCEPT FOR MAYBE SOME HIGH CLOUDS LEFTOVER
FROM CONVECTION WELL TO THE W...ANOTHER NIGHT WITH CONDITIONS
FAVORABLE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED. IN FACT...MOS IS
STILL LIKELY A LITTLE TOO WARM IF SKIES ARE ALLOWED TO CLEAR
ENOUGH ACROSS THE NW VALLEYS. THEREFORE...DROPPED MINS BY A FEW
DEGREES...ALTHOUGH EVEN THIS EFFORT MAY NOT BE ENOUGH.

WED...
ALTHOUGH CORE OF HIGH PRES WILL MOVE E OF THE REGION ON
WED...STILL NOTE ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE TRAPPED BETWEEN THE CUTOFFS
THAT INVERTED RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL. IN FACT...NOTE
ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE THROUGH THE COLUMN ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS THAT
EVEN AS SHOWERS/T-STORMS DEVELOP ACROSS PA AND NY...THAT THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY OUT OF EVEN THE WRN REACHES OF NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH THE DAY. THE FACT THAT THE OVERALL COLUMN IS RELATIVELY
MOISTURE STARVED ADDS CONFIDENCE TO MAINTAINING A DRY FORECAST.
OTHERWISE...ALTHOUGH MID LVL TEMPS INCREASE TO AN AVERAGE OF
12-14C...NEAR SHORE LOCATIONS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW
NORMAL DUE TO GRADIENT SUPPORTING E-SE FLOW...LIKELY ASSISTED BY
DIURNAL SEA BREEZES. AREAS IN WRN MA/CT AND SW NH ARE THE MOST
LIKELY TO SEE TEMPS SHIFT INTO THE LOW 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK
* UNCERTAINTY INCREASES THIS WEEKEND WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD OVERALL SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF
THIS WORK WEEK.  MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES ARE STARTING TO
LATCH ONTO THE IDEA OF A HIGH PRESSURE LINGERING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...SHIFTING THE PRIMARY STORM TRACK FARTHER SOUTH.  MODELS
DIVERGE THIS WEEKEND...WITH THE GFS HAVING A MORE COMPACT LONGWAVE
PATTERN THAN THE ECMWF.  THIS LEADS TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATION
OF WHERE A MID-LEVEL CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPS TOWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH
IN TURN IMPACTS THE POSITION OF A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE.

AT THIS TIME...STAYING CLOSER TO A CONSENSUS APPROACH TO MITIGATE
SOME OF THESE DETAIL DIFFERENCES. WHILE IMPORTANT OVERALL...SOME OF
THESE DETAILS HAVE LOW PREDICTABILITY THIS FAR IN ADVANCE.

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MID-LEVEL TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE
MARITIMES...WITH A HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC STRETCHING ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SEASONABLE TO JUST BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY A
FEW SHOWERS MAY BLEED INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY...BUT IT
IS EXPECTED THAT MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN IN NEW YORK
STATE.

THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THIS IS WHERE THE BULK OF THE
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IS. SATURDAY SHOULD STILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES AND DRY
WEATHER. SUNDAY AND MONDAY HAVE THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS
OR RAIN AS EITHER A COLD FRONT OR A COASTAL LOW BRING MOISTURE TO
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD START TO WARM A FEW DEGREES THROUGH
THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...VFR...SEA BREEZES EXPECTED AROUND 15Z.

TONIGHT...
MAINLY VFR. HOWEVER...MAY SEE A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD GROUND FOG
THAN MONDAY NIGHT.

WED...
VFR. SEA BREEZES LIKELY AGAIN...ASSISTED ON E COAST BY E FLOW.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR. LOW
PROBABILITY OF PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

GENERALLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED. FLOW SHIFTS FROM W-NW
TODAY TO THE S LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...THEN TO THE E-SE BY
TOMORROW AS A STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO SPIN UP WELL TO THE SE. WIND
GUSTS MAY APPROACH 15 KT DURING THE DAY ON WED.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. RELATIVELY QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
REGION. LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY OVERNIGHT FOG LIMITING
VISIBILITIES. SEAS MAY INCREASE ON THE OUTER WATERS SATURDAY AS AN
OCEAN STORM PASSES WELL EAST OF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 191405
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1005 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS
WEEKEND WITH REGARDS TO THE PROXIMITY OF A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE
TO NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

10 AM UPDATE...

ATYPICAL WEATHER FOR AUGUST. BELOW-SEASONABLE CONDITIONS. LOW
HUMIDITY. SUCH WEATHER WOULD BE EXPECTED IN LATE SEPTEMBER INTO
EARLY AUGUST!

A QUIET WEATHER DAY AS A SYNOPTIC LOW PRESSURE CENTER SWEEPS E
OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC...WELL OFFSHORE OF S NEW ENGLAND. MID-LEVEL
RIDGE TO THE W AHEAD OF A LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
ALLOW FOR CONTINUED HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS AT THE SURFACE.
ANTICIPATE THE SUBSEQUENT THERMAL AND WEAK GRADIENT DIFFERENCE TO
RESULT IN AN ONSHORE SEA-BREEZE GETTING WELL INTO THE INTERIOR OF
NEW ENGLAND BY LATE AFTERNOON. ALREADY OBSERVING SOME ONSHORE FLOW
ALONG THE COASTLINES.

SLIGHTLY-BELOW SEASONABLE HIGHS BY A DEGREE OR TWO BENEATH MOSTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS /A FEW WISPS OF CIRRUS ALONG WITH DIURNAL CUMULUS
ANTICIPATED AS NOTED BY THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER/. WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES WARM UP TO AROUND THE UPPER-70S. COOLER ALONG THE
SHORELINES WITH ONSHORE SEA- BREEZES. COUPLED WITH CONTINUED LOW
HUMIDITY...EXPECT A PLEASANT DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...

TONIGHT...
MID LVL RIDGE CONTINUES TO DECLINE AS WEAK MID LVL CUTOFF PUSHES
TO THE E. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTERS THAT SUBSIDENCE IS
LIKELY TO PREVAIL BETWEEN THIS CUTOFF AND A SECOND IN ATLANTIC
CANADA. THEREFORE...EXCEPT FOR MAYBE SOME HIGH CLOUDS LEFTOVER
FROM CONVECTION WELL TO THE W...ANOTHER NIGHT WITH CONDITIONS
FAVORABLE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED. IN FACT...MOS IS
STILL LIKELY A LITTLE TOO WARM IF SKIES ARE ALLOWED TO CLEAR
ENOUGH ACROSS THE NW VALLEYS. THEREFORE...DROPPED MINS BY A FEW
DEGREES...ALTHOUGH EVEN THIS EFFORT MAY NOT BE ENOUGH.

WED...
ALTHOUGH CORE OF HIGH PRES WILL MOVE E OF THE REGION ON
WED...STILL NOTE ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE TRAPPED BETWEEN THE CUTOFFS
THAT INVERTED RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL. IN FACT...NOTE
ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE THROUGH THE COLUMN ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS THAT
EVEN AS SHOWERS/T-STORMS DEVELOP ACROSS PA AND NY...THAT THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY OUT OF EVEN THE WRN REACHES OF NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH THE DAY. THE FACT THAT THE OVERALL COLUMN IS RELATIVELY
MOISTURE STARVED ADDS CONFIDENCE TO MAINTAINING A DRY FORECAST.
OTHERWISE...ALTHOUGH MID LVL TEMPS INCREASE TO AN AVERAGE OF
12-14C...NEAR SHORE LOCATIONS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW
NORMAL DUE TO GRADIENT SUPPORTING E-SE FLOW...LIKELY ASSISTED BY
DIURNAL SEA BREEZES. AREAS IN WRN MA/CT AND SW NH ARE THE MOST
LIKELY TO SEE TEMPS SHIFT INTO THE LOW 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK
* UNCERTAINTY INCREASES THIS WEEKEND WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD OVERALL SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF
THIS WORK WEEK.  MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES ARE STARTING TO
LATCH ONTO THE IDEA OF A HIGH PRESSURE LINGERING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...SHIFTING THE PRIMARY STORM TRACK FARTHER SOUTH.  MODELS
DIVERGE THIS WEEKEND...WITH THE GFS HAVING A MORE COMPACT LONGWAVE
PATTERN THAN THE ECMWF.  THIS LEADS TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATION
OF WHERE A MID-LEVEL CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPS TOWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH
IN TURN IMPACTS THE POSITION OF A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE.

AT THIS TIME...STAYING CLOSER TO A CONSENSUS APPROACH TO MITIGATE
SOME OF THESE DETAIL DIFFERENCES. WHILE IMPORTANT OVERALL...SOME OF
THESE DETAILS HAVE LOW PREDICTABILITY THIS FAR IN ADVANCE.

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MID-LEVEL TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE
MARITIMES...WITH A HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC STRETCHING ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SEASONABLE TO JUST BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY A
FEW SHOWERS MAY BLEED INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY...BUT IT
IS EXPECTED THAT MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN IN NEW YORK
STATE.

THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THIS IS WHERE THE BULK OF THE
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IS. SATURDAY SHOULD STILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES AND DRY
WEATHER. SUNDAY AND MONDAY HAVE THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS
OR RAIN AS EITHER A COLD FRONT OR A COASTAL LOW BRING MOISTURE TO
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD START TO WARM A FEW DEGREES THROUGH
THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...VFR...SEA BREEZES EXPECTED AROUND 15Z.

TONIGHT...
MAINLY VFR. HOWEVER...MAY SEE A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD GROUND FOG
THAN MONDAY NIGHT.

WED...
VFR. SEA BREEZES LIKELY AGAIN...ASSISTED ON E COAST BY E FLOW.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR. LOW
PROBABILITY OF PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

GENERALLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED. FLOW SHIFTS FROM W-NW
TODAY TO THE S LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...THEN TO THE E-SE BY
TOMORROW AS A STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO SPIN UP WELL TO THE SE. WIND
GUSTS MAY APPROACH 15 KT DURING THE DAY ON WED.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. RELATIVELY QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
REGION. LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY OVERNIGHT FOG LIMITING
VISIBILITIES. SEAS MAY INCREASE ON THE OUTER WATERS SATURDAY AS AN
OCEAN STORM PASSES WELL EAST OF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KOKX 191342
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
942 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE REGION`S
WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FCST ON TRACK. HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL WITH WINDS VEERING SSE
THIS THIS AFTERNOON.

WITH OCEAN WAVES MEASURED BELOW 2 FT...HAVE LOWERED RIP CURRENT
RISK.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE HIGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER NEW ENGLAND THRU WED...WITH
DETERMINISTIC MODELS CONTINUING TO KEEP PASSING LOW PRES SE OF THE
CWA AND CONVECTIVE PCPN W OF THE CWA. AS A RESULT HAVE KEPT THE
FCST DRY. RADIATION FOG POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY IN THE PINE
BARRENS AND INTERIOR VALLEYS WED MRNG. TEMPS A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE...WHICH ARE CLOSE TO CLIMO DURING THE DAY BUT A FEW
DEGREES BLW NORMAL AT NGT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THIS TIME FRAME WILL FEATURE COOLER THAN NORMAL BUT MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS.

IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS...A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS OUR AREA THURSDAY...PASSING JUST SOUTHEAST
FRIDAY. THIS TROUGH DEEPENS SLIGHTLY AND REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS
TO THE NORTH OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME.

AT THE SFC...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS TO THE WEST AS A SERIES OF
WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTERS RIDE ALONG IT. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTHEAST RIDGES SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN POPS FOR WESTERN LOCATIONS LATE AT NIGHT AND THROUGH THURSDAY.
POSSIBLE SHOWERS CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...SETTLING SOUTHEAST.
THEREAFTER...BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WOULD BE TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...CLOSER TO THE LOW AND FRONT.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THIS TIME
FRAME DUE TO AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS...COOLER TEMPS ALOFT
AND PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW. MAX TEMPS MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE 80
DEGREE MARK NEAR NYC METRO...WITH WIDESPREAD 70S ELSEWHERE. LOWS AT
NIGHT IN THE 50S AND 60S...AGAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

A SLIGHT MODERATION IN TEMPS BACK TO NORMAL IS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS HEIGHTS RISE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE
SOUTH.

A NE-E FLOW THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SE AS HIGH PRES SHIFTS E OF
THE AREA...THEN SHIFTS BACK TOWARD THE E TONIGHT AND THEN BACK TO
THE SE LATE TONIGHT. WINDS SPEEDS SHOULD BE 10 KT OR LESS.

GENERALLY VFR...THOUGH KHPN/KSWF MAY SEE MVFR VSBY LATE TONIGHT.

WIND DIRECTIONS COULD BE 20-30 DEGREES RIGHT OF FORECAST AT KJFK
AND KLGA AFT 17Z TUE.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: CIGS BKN015-020 W-NW BEFORE 15Z. SEA BREEZE
AFTER 15Z COULD BE A LITTLE MORE SOUTHERLY THAN FCST.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: CIGS BKN015-020 SE BEFORE 15Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: CIGS BKN015-020 SE BEFORE 15Z.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES  SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE AFTER 16Z COULD BE A LITTLE MORE
SOUTHERLY THAN FCST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WED THROUGH SAT...
.TUE NIGHT...VFR.
.WED-THU...AN ISOLD SHOWER/TSTM POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN TERMINALS.
.THU NIGHT-FRI...CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CONDS.
.SAT...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BLW SCA LVLS THRU WED.

A PERSISTENT EASTERLY WIND IS EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. WINDS INCREASE SLIGHTLY FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO
THE SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER...DO NOT
EXPECT WIND SPEEDS TO REACH SCA CRITERIA...OR 25 KT. SEAS MAY BUILD
IN RESPONSE...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 5 FT OVER THE OCEAN WATERS PER
WAVE WATCH III.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN THRU THE WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JST
NEAR TERM...JST
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...GOODMAN/JP
MARINE...JMC/PW
HYDROLOGY...JMC/PW









000
FXUS61 KOKX 191144
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
744 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE
HIGH REMAINS TO THE NORTHEAST LATE THIS WEEK AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE PASS TO THE WEST AND
SOUTH OF THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING.

THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS
THE CWA. TEMPS CLOSE TO GMOS25 WHICH ARE ABOUT A DEGREE BLW
CLIMO.

ON THE OCEAN...A 2 FT ESE SWELL GETTING PICKED UP AT BUOY 44017.
WITH THE FCST GUIDANCE ON TRACK...WILL CONTINUE THE MODERATE RISK
FOR THIS AFTN. IT IS MARGINAL WITH WAVE HEIGHTS ONLY AROUND 2 FT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE HIGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER NEW ENGLAND THRU WED...WITH THE
BIG THREE MODELS CONTINUING TO KEEP PASSING LO PRES SE OF THE CWA
AND CONVECTIVE PCPN W OF THE CWA. AS A RESULT HAVE KEPT THE FCST
DRY. RADIATION FOG POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY IN THE PINE BARRENS AND
INTERIOR VALLEYS WED MRNG. TEMPS A BLEND OF GUIDANCE...WHICH ARE
CLOSE TO CLIMO DURING THE DAY BUT A FEW DEGREES BLW NORMAL AT NGT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THIS TIME FRAME WILL FEATURE COOLER THAN NORMAL BUT MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS.

IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS...A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS OUR AREA THURSDAY...PASSING JUST SOUTHEAST
FRIDAY. THIS TROUGH DEEPENS SLIGHTLY AND REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS
TO THE NORTH OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME.

AT THE SFC...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS TO THE WEST AS A SERIES OF
WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTERS RIDE ALONG IT. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTHEAST RIDGES SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN POPS FOR WESTERN LOCATIONS LATE AT NIGHT AND THROUGH THURSDAY.
POSSIBLE SHOWERS CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...SETTLING SOUTHEAST.
THEREAFTER...BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WOULD BE TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...CLOSER TO THE LOW AND FRONT.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THIS TIME
FRAME DUE TO AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS...COOLER TEMPS ALOFT
AND PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW. MAX TEMPS MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE 80
DEGREE MARK NEAR NYC METRO...WITH WIDESPREAD 70S ELSEWHERE. LOWS AT
NIGHT IN THE 50S AND 60S...AGAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

A SLIGHT MODERATION IN TEMPS BACK TO NORMAL IS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS HEIGHTS RISE.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENERALLY...VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE
SOUTH.

A NE-E FLOW THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SE AS HIGH PRES SHIFTS E OF
THE AREA...THEN SHIFTS BACK TOWARD THE E TONIGHT AND THEN BACK TO
THE SE LATE TONIGHT. WINDS SPEEDS SHOULD BE 10 KT OR LESS.

KHPN AND KSWF MAY SEE FOG DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...BRINGING VSBY
DOWN TO 5 SM.

WIND DIRECTIONS COULD BE 20-30 DEGREES RIGHT OF FORECAST AT KJFK
AND KLGA AFT 17Z TUE.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES  SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ISOLD SHRA/TSTM POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN
TERMINALS.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...CHANCE OF SHOWERS. MVFR POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BLW SCA LVLS THRU WED.

A PERSISTENT EASTERLY WIND IS EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. WINDS INCREASE SLIGHTLY FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO
THE SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER...DO NOT
EXPECT WIND SPEEDS TO REACH SCA CRITERIA...OR 25 KTS. SEAS MAY BUILD
IN RESPONSE...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 5 FT OVER THE OCEAN WATERS PER
WAVE WATCH III.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN THRU THE WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/PW
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...JMC/PW
HYDROLOGY...JMC/PW









000
FXUS61 KBOX 191116
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
716 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS
WEEKEND WITH REGARDS TO THE PROXIMITY OF A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE
TO NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
700 AM UPDATE...

ONLY MINOR TWEAKS NEEDED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

IN SPITE OF THIS COOL START...A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE TO START
THE DAY AS GRADUALLY WEAKENING MID LVL RIDGE AND ATTENDANT HIGH
PRES CREST OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. THEREFORE...EXPECT
THE DRY WX TO PREVAIL WITH ONLY A FEW WISPS OF CI FROM SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WELL TO THE NW AND A FEW POP DIURNAL CU THIS AFTERNOON. BL
MIXING SHOULD EASILY TAP THE H85 LVL...WHERE TEMPS AVG 10-12C.
THEREFORE...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80. FLOW WILL
SHIFT FROM THE W-NW TO S AS THE HIGH MOVES E EXCEPT NEAR SHORE
WHERE SEA BREEZES ARE EXPECTED. THESE SEA BREEZES ARE LIKELY TO
KEEP HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID 70S CLOSE TO THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
MID LVL RIDGE CONTINUES TO DECLINE AS WEAK MID LVL CUTOFF PUSHES
TO THE E. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTERS THAT SUBSIDENCE IS
LIKELY TO PREVAIL BETWEEN THIS CUTOFF AND A SECOND IN ATLANTIC
CANADA. THEREFORE...EXCEPT FOR MAYBE SOME HIGH CLOUDS LEFTOVER
FROM CONVECTION WELL TO THE W...ANOTHER NIGHT WITH CONDITIONS
FAVORABLE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED. IN FACT...MOS IS
STILL LIKELY A LITTLE TOO WARM IF SKIES ARE ALLOWED TO CLEAR
ENOUGH ACROSS THE NW VALLEYS. THEREFORE...DROPPED MINS BY A FEW
DEGREES...ALTHOUGH EVEN THIS EFFORT MAY NOT BE ENOUGH.

WED...
ALTHOUGH CORE OF HIGH PRES WILL MOVE E OF THE REGION ON
WED...STILL NOTE ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE TRAPPED BETWEEN THE CUTOFFS
THAT INVERTED RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL. IN FACT...NOTE
ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE THROUGH THE COLUMN ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS THAT
EVEN AS SHOWERS/T-STORMS DEVELOP ACROSS PA AND NY...THAT THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY OUT OF EVEN THE WRN REACHES OF NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH THE DAY. THE FACT THAT THE OVERALL COLUMN IS RELATIVELY
MOISTURE STARVED ADDS CONFIDENCE TO MAINTAINING A DRY FORECAST.
OTHERWISE...ALTHOUGH MID LVL TEMPS INCREASE TO AN AVERAGE OF
12-14C...NEAR SHORE LOCATIONS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW
NORMAL DUE TO GRADIENT SUPPORTING E-SE FLOW...LIKELY ASSISTED BY
DIURNAL SEA BREEZES. AREAS IN WRN MA/CT AND SW NH ARE THE MOST
LIKELY TO SEE TEMPS SHIFT INTO THE LOW 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK
* UNCERTAINTY INCREASES THIS WEEKEND WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD OVERALL SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF
THIS WORK WEEK.  MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES ARE STARTING TO
LATCH ONTO THE IDEA OF A HIGH PRESSURE LINGERING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...SHIFTING THE PRIMARY STORM TRACK FARTHER SOUTH.  MODELS
DIVERGE THIS WEEKEND...WITH THE GFS HAVING A MORE COMPACT LONGWAVE
PATTERN THAN THE ECMWF.  THIS LEADS TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATION
OF WHERE A MID-LEVEL CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPS TOWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH
IN TURN IMPACTS THE POSITION OF A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE.

AT THIS TIME...STAYING CLOSER TO A CONSENSUS APPROACH TO MITIGATE
SOME OF THESE DETAIL DIFFERENCES. WHILE IMPORTANT OVERALL...SOME OF
THESE DETAILS HAVE LOW PREDICTABILITY THIS FAR IN ADVANCE.

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MID-LEVEL TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE
MARITIMES...WITH A HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC STRETCHING ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SEASONABLE TO JUST BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY A
FEW SHOWERS MAY BLEED INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY...BUT IT
IS EXPECTED THAT MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN IN NEW YORK
STATE.

THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THIS IS WHERE THE BULK OF THE
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IS. SATURDAY SHOULD STILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES AND DRY
WEATHER. SUNDAY AND MONDAY HAVE THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS
OR RAIN AS EITHER A COLD FRONT OR A COASTAL LOW BRING MOISTURE TO
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD START TO WARM A FEW DEGREES THROUGH
THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...VFR...EXCEPT ISOLATED PATCHY GROUND FOG EARLY THIS
MORNING AT THE MOST PRONE AIRPORTS. SEA BREEZES LIKELY AT ALL NEAR
COASTAL TERMINALS.

TONIGHT...
MAINLY VFR. HOWEVER...MAY SEE A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD GROUND FOG
THAN MON NIGHT.

WED...
VFR. SEA BREEZES LIKELY AGAIN...ASSISTED ON E COAST BY E FLOW.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR. LOW
PROBABILITY OF PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

GENERALLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED. FLOW SHIFTS FROM W-NW
TODAY TO THE S LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...THEN TO THE E-SE BY
TOMORROW AS A STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO SPIN UP WELL TO THE SE. WIND
GUSTS MAY APPROACH 15 KT DURING THE DAY ON WED.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. RELATIVELY QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
REGION. LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY OVERNIGHT FOG LIMITING
VISIBILITIES. SEAS MAY INCREASE ON THE OUTER WATERS SATURDAY AS AN
OCEAN STORM PASSES WELL EAST OF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...BELK/DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 191116
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
716 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS
WEEKEND WITH REGARDS TO THE PROXIMITY OF A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE
TO NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
700 AM UPDATE...

ONLY MINOR TWEAKS NEEDED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

IN SPITE OF THIS COOL START...A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE TO START
THE DAY AS GRADUALLY WEAKENING MID LVL RIDGE AND ATTENDANT HIGH
PRES CREST OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. THEREFORE...EXPECT
THE DRY WX TO PREVAIL WITH ONLY A FEW WISPS OF CI FROM SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WELL TO THE NW AND A FEW POP DIURNAL CU THIS AFTERNOON. BL
MIXING SHOULD EASILY TAP THE H85 LVL...WHERE TEMPS AVG 10-12C.
THEREFORE...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80. FLOW WILL
SHIFT FROM THE W-NW TO S AS THE HIGH MOVES E EXCEPT NEAR SHORE
WHERE SEA BREEZES ARE EXPECTED. THESE SEA BREEZES ARE LIKELY TO
KEEP HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID 70S CLOSE TO THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
MID LVL RIDGE CONTINUES TO DECLINE AS WEAK MID LVL CUTOFF PUSHES
TO THE E. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTERS THAT SUBSIDENCE IS
LIKELY TO PREVAIL BETWEEN THIS CUTOFF AND A SECOND IN ATLANTIC
CANADA. THEREFORE...EXCEPT FOR MAYBE SOME HIGH CLOUDS LEFTOVER
FROM CONVECTION WELL TO THE W...ANOTHER NIGHT WITH CONDITIONS
FAVORABLE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED. IN FACT...MOS IS
STILL LIKELY A LITTLE TOO WARM IF SKIES ARE ALLOWED TO CLEAR
ENOUGH ACROSS THE NW VALLEYS. THEREFORE...DROPPED MINS BY A FEW
DEGREES...ALTHOUGH EVEN THIS EFFORT MAY NOT BE ENOUGH.

WED...
ALTHOUGH CORE OF HIGH PRES WILL MOVE E OF THE REGION ON
WED...STILL NOTE ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE TRAPPED BETWEEN THE CUTOFFS
THAT INVERTED RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL. IN FACT...NOTE
ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE THROUGH THE COLUMN ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS THAT
EVEN AS SHOWERS/T-STORMS DEVELOP ACROSS PA AND NY...THAT THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY OUT OF EVEN THE WRN REACHES OF NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH THE DAY. THE FACT THAT THE OVERALL COLUMN IS RELATIVELY
MOISTURE STARVED ADDS CONFIDENCE TO MAINTAINING A DRY FORECAST.
OTHERWISE...ALTHOUGH MID LVL TEMPS INCREASE TO AN AVERAGE OF
12-14C...NEAR SHORE LOCATIONS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW
NORMAL DUE TO GRADIENT SUPPORTING E-SE FLOW...LIKELY ASSISTED BY
DIURNAL SEA BREEZES. AREAS IN WRN MA/CT AND SW NH ARE THE MOST
LIKELY TO SEE TEMPS SHIFT INTO THE LOW 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK
* UNCERTAINTY INCREASES THIS WEEKEND WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD OVERALL SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF
THIS WORK WEEK.  MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES ARE STARTING TO
LATCH ONTO THE IDEA OF A HIGH PRESSURE LINGERING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...SHIFTING THE PRIMARY STORM TRACK FARTHER SOUTH.  MODELS
DIVERGE THIS WEEKEND...WITH THE GFS HAVING A MORE COMPACT LONGWAVE
PATTERN THAN THE ECMWF.  THIS LEADS TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATION
OF WHERE A MID-LEVEL CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPS TOWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH
IN TURN IMPACTS THE POSITION OF A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE.

AT THIS TIME...STAYING CLOSER TO A CONSENSUS APPROACH TO MITIGATE
SOME OF THESE DETAIL DIFFERENCES. WHILE IMPORTANT OVERALL...SOME OF
THESE DETAILS HAVE LOW PREDICTABILITY THIS FAR IN ADVANCE.

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MID-LEVEL TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE
MARITIMES...WITH A HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC STRETCHING ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SEASONABLE TO JUST BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY A
FEW SHOWERS MAY BLEED INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY...BUT IT
IS EXPECTED THAT MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN IN NEW YORK
STATE.

THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THIS IS WHERE THE BULK OF THE
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IS. SATURDAY SHOULD STILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES AND DRY
WEATHER. SUNDAY AND MONDAY HAVE THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS
OR RAIN AS EITHER A COLD FRONT OR A COASTAL LOW BRING MOISTURE TO
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD START TO WARM A FEW DEGREES THROUGH
THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...VFR...EXCEPT ISOLATED PATCHY GROUND FOG EARLY THIS
MORNING AT THE MOST PRONE AIRPORTS. SEA BREEZES LIKELY AT ALL NEAR
COASTAL TERMINALS.

TONIGHT...
MAINLY VFR. HOWEVER...MAY SEE A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD GROUND FOG
THAN MON NIGHT.

WED...
VFR. SEA BREEZES LIKELY AGAIN...ASSISTED ON E COAST BY E FLOW.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR. LOW
PROBABILITY OF PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

GENERALLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED. FLOW SHIFTS FROM W-NW
TODAY TO THE S LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...THEN TO THE E-SE BY
TOMORROW AS A STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO SPIN UP WELL TO THE SE. WIND
GUSTS MAY APPROACH 15 KT DURING THE DAY ON WED.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. RELATIVELY QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
REGION. LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY OVERNIGHT FOG LIMITING
VISIBILITIES. SEAS MAY INCREASE ON THE OUTER WATERS SATURDAY AS AN
OCEAN STORM PASSES WELL EAST OF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...BELK/DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY



000
FXUS61 KALY 191044
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
644 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. WITH THE HELP OF A
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO SEASONABLE LEVELS THIS
AFTERNOON. THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK AS A SLOW MOVING AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE
REGION. THE BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE TO THE WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND WESTERN AND CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG AND STRATUS ACROSS THE AREA WILL LIFT
AND BURN OFF BY MID MORNING. OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE ANOTHER DRY
DAY WITH RIDGING IN CONTROL AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN YESTERDAY BY A COUPLE DEGREES WHICH WILL
BRING THEM TO NORMAL LEVELS.

TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING BELOW NORMAL SO FAR FOR AUGUST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. FOR ONLY 5 DAYS HAS THE AVERAGE DAILY TEMPERATURE
BEEN ABOVE NORMAL IN ALBANY...WITH THE GREATEST DEPARTURE BEING
ONLY 2 DEGREES.

HERE ARE THE AVERAGE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES FOR AUGUST
THROUGH THE 18TH...
ALBANY NY: -2.0 DEGREES
GLENS FALLS NY: -0.9 DEGREES
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: -2.4 DEGREES
BENNINGTON VT: -2.8 DEGREES
PITTSFIELD MA: -3.5 DEGREES

FOR MORE CLIMATE INFORMATION CHECK OUT OUR CLIMATE PAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY/CLIMATE

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A WEAK AND SLOW
MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA.

A SHORT WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER MID WEST IS EXPECTED TO
CLOSE OFF THIS AFTERNOON...THEN THIS LOW WILL ONLY GRADUALLY SHIFT
EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS IT
ENCOUNTERS THE RIDGING TO ITS EAST. THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL STRENGTHEN
AND SHIFT WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THIS WEEK
EVENTUALLY ESTABLISHING ITSELF OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. THE RIDGE WILL
THEN BUILD NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE WEEK. IN
THE MEANTIME...SURFACE RIDGING WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AS A RESULT THE UPPER
LOW IS EXPECTED TO OPEN THURSDAY AND MOVE ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. THE
RESULT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE FOR GREATER CHANCES FOR STORMS
TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND
WESTERN/CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY. CHANCES WILL SPREAD FARTHER EAST THURSDAY
HOWEVER THE ALREADY RATHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL BE WEAKENING FURTHER.
CHANCES FOR THUNDER SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY WHERE HIGHER DEW POINTS WILL HELP YIELD GREATER
INSTABILITY.

SEASONABLY WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY...WITH A RETURN TO COOLER SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL VALUES
FOR THURSDAY. OVERALL THE GUIDANCE SEEMS REASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO FEATURE IMPROVING WEATHER FOR THE
CLOSE OF THE WORK WEEK AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM ERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS
AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER.

FRIDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT...A REX BLOCK SETS UP OVER ERN CANADA AND THE
NORTHEAST WITH A CLOSED H500 ANTICYCLONE OVER N-CNTRL QUEBEC...AND
JUST EAST OF HUDSON BAY.  A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION AND PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST.  THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL
LOW AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND UPPER MID
ATLANTIC REGION MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.  H850 TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE +11C TO +13C RANGE.  EXPECT HIGHS TO BE IN THE MID TO U70S IN
THE VALLEYS...AND U60S TO L70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.  THE SHOWERS
WILL DIMINISH SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION IN THE EVENING
WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.

SATURDAY TO SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES IN FROM ERN QUEBEC
NEW BRUNSWICK.  A BROAD CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW FORMS WELL EAST TO
SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD AND THE GULF OR MAINE.  AN H500 RIDGE BUILDS
IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND SE
CANADA.  DRY WX IS EXPECTED BASED ON THE LATEST ECMWF/GFS/WPC
GUIDANCE...AS THE UPSTREAM RIDGE LOOKS TO DOMINATE WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPS EXPECTED WITH M60S TO L70S FOR HIGHS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...AND MID TO U70S OVER THE VALLEYS.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S
WITH SOME SPOTTY U40S OVER THE HIGH PEAKS.  HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY COMFORTABLE WITH SFC DEWPTS GENERALLY IN THE
50S TO L60S.  AN ONSHORE FLOW OF MARITIME AIR WILL IMPACT THE REGION
WITH THE SFC HIGH SITUATED TO THE NORTH AND EAST.

MONDAY...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM SOUTHEAST
CANADA...THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND THE CNTRL MS RIVER VALLEY.  A
WEAK WARM FRONT MAY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WITH AN INCREASE OF
CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER HUMIDITY LEVELS...BUT A DRY FCST HAS BEEN
MAINTAINED BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE.  TEMPS SHOULD FINISH NEAR
NORMAL FOR THE START OF THE WEEK...AS H850 TEMPS INCREASE TO +13C TO
+15C...AND HIGHS IN THE U70S TO L80S WILL BE COMMON IN THE VALLEYS
WITH 70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND TODAY BEFORE
SHIFTING OFFSHORE TONIGHT.

KGFL...KPSF...AND KALB WILL HAVE SOME RADIATIONAL IFR/LIFR MIST/FOG
AND/OR STRATUS UNTIL 13Z BEFORE BURNING OFF SHORTLY AFTER 13Z. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN THEREAFTER WITH JUST A FEW CUMULUS AND A
FEW-SCT CIRRUS AROUND DUE TO THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM THE SFC
ANTICYCLONE.

RADIATIONAL MIST/FOG AND SOME STRATUS IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AGAIN
WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT KGFL AND KPSF...AND
MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT KALB AND KPOU SHORTLY BEFORE OR JUST
AFTER 06Z/WED.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM THIS MORNING...AND BE VARIABLE IN
DIRECTION AT 6 KTS OR LESS DURING THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE BECOMING
LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WED TO WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY TO SATURDAY:NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ANOTHER DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. THE WEATHER WILL
TURN UNSETTLED FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A SLOW MOVING AND WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION. THE BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS
WILL BE TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND WESTERN AND CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S
THIS AFTERNOON WITH A RECOVERY TO 90 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT.
MINIMUM VALUES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS THIS WEEK.
ANOTHER DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. THE WEATHER WILL
TURN UNSETTLED FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A SLOW MOVING AND WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION. THE HIGH QPF AMOUNTS WILL
OCCUR TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND WESTERN AND CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY.
MODEL QPF HAS NOT BEEN CONSISTENT AND REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA







000
FXUS61 KALY 191029
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
629 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. WITH THE HELP OF A
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO SEASONABLE LEVELS THIS
AFTERNOON. THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK AS A SLOW MOVING AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE
REGION. THE BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE TO THE WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND WESTERN AND CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG AND STRATUS ACROSS THE AREA WILL LIFT
AND BURN OFF BY MID MORNING. OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE ANOTHER DRY
DAY WITH RIDGING IN CONTROL AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN YESTERDAY BY A COUPLE DEGREES WHICH WILL
BRING THEM TO NORMAL LEVELS.

TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING BELOW NORMAL SO FAR FOR AUGUST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. FOR ONLY 5 DAYS HAS THE AVERAGE DAILY TEMPERATURE
BEEN ABOVE NORMAL IN ALBANY...WITH THE GREATEST DEPARTURE BEING
ONLY 2 DEGREES.

HERE ARE THE AVERAGE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES FOR AUGUST
THROUGH THE 18TH...
ALBANY NY: -2.0 DEGREES
GLENS FALLS NY: -0.9 DEGREES
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: -2.4 DEGREES
BENNINGTON VT: -2.8 DEGREES
PITTSFIELD MA: -3.5 DEGREES

FOR MORE CLIMATE INFORMATION CHECK OUT OUR CLIMATE PAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY/CLIMATE

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A WEAK AND SLOW
MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA.

A SHORT WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER MID WEST IS EXPECTED TO
CLOSE OFF THIS AFTERNOON...THEN THIS LOW WILL ONLY GRADUALLY SHIFT
EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS IT
ENCOUNTERS THE RIDGING TO ITS EAST. THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL STRENGTHEN
AND SHIFT WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THIS WEEK
EVENTUALLY ESTABLISHING ITSELF OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. THE RIDGE WILL
THEN BUILD NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE WEEK. IN
THE MEANTIME...SURFACE RIDGING WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AS A RESULT THE UPPER
LOW IS EXPECTED TO OPEN THURSDAY AND MOVE ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. THE
RESULT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE FOR GREATER CHANCES FOR STORMS
TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND
WESTERN/CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY. CHANCES WILL SPREAD FARTHER EAST THURSDAY
HOWEVER THE ALREADY RATHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL BE WEAKENING FURTHER.
CHANCES FOR THUNDER SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY WHERE HIGHER DEW POINTS WILL HELP YIELD GREATER
INSTABILITY.

SEASONABLY WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY...WITH A RETURN TO COOLER SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL VALUES
FOR THURSDAY. OVERALL THE GUIDANCE SEEMS REASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO FEATURE IMPROVING WEATHER FOR THE
CLOSE OF THE WORK WEEK AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM ERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS
AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER.

FRIDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT...A REX BLOCK SETS UP OVER ERN CANADA AND THE
NORTHEAST WITH A CLOSED H500 ANTICYCLONE OVER N-CNTRL QUEBEC...AND
JUST EAST OF HUDSON BAY.  A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION AND PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST.  THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL
LOW AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND UPPER MID
ATLANTIC REGION MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.  H850 TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE +11C TO +13C RANGE.  EXPECT HIGHS TO BE IN THE MID TO U70S IN
THE VALLEYS...AND U60S TO L70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.  THE SHOWERS
WILL DIMINISH SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION IN THE EVENING
WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.

SATURDAY TO SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES IN FROM ERN QUEBEC
NEW BRUNSWICK.  A BROAD CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW FORMS WELL EAST TO
SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD AND THE GULF OR MAINE.  AN H500 RIDGE BUILDS
IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND SE
CANADA.  DRY WX IS EXPECTED BASED ON THE LATEST ECMWF/GFS/WPC
GUIDANCE...AS THE UPSTREAM RIDGE LOOKS TO DOMINATE WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPS EXPECTED WITH M60S TO L70S FOR HIGHS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...AND MID TO U70S OVER THE VALLEYS.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S
WITH SOME SPOTTY U40S OVER THE HIGH PEAKS.  HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY COMFORTABLE WITH SFC DEWPTS GENERALLY IN THE
50S TO L60S.  AN ONSHORE FLOW OF MARITIME AIR WILL IMPACT THE REGION
WITH THE SFC HIGH SITUATED TO THE NORTH AND EAST.

MONDAY...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM SOUTHEAST
CANADA...THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND THE CNTRL MS RIVER VALLEY.  A
WEAK WARM FRONT MAY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WITH AN INCREASE OF
CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER HUMIDITY LEVELS...BUT A DRY FCST HAS BEEN
MAINTAINED BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE.  TEMPS SHOULD FINISH NEAR
NORMAL FOR THE START OF THE WEEK...AS H850 TEMPS INCREASE TO +13C TO
+15C...AND HIGHS IN THE U70S TO L80S WILL BE COMMON IN THE VALLEYS
WITH 70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND TODAY BEFORE
SHIFTING OFFSHORE TONIGHT.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KALB/KPOU THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  KGFL
AND KPSF WILL HAVE SOME RADIATIONAL IFR/LIFR MIST/FOG AND/OR STRATUS
BTWN 06Z-12Z BEFORE BURNING OFF SHORTLY AFTER 12Z.  VFR CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN THEREAFTER WITH JUST A FEW CUMULUS AND A FEW-SCT CIRRUS
AROUND DUE TO THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM THE SFC ANTICYCLONE.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM THIS MORNING...AND BE VARIABLE IN
DIRECTION AT 6 KTS OR LESS DURING THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE BECOMING
LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WED TO WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY TO SATURDAY:NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ANOTHER DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. THE WEATHER WILL
TURN UNSETTLED FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A SLOW MOVING AND WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION. THE BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS
WILL BE TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND WESTERN AND CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S
THIS AFTERNOON WITH A RECOVERY TO 90 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT.
MINIMUM VALUES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS THIS WEEK.
ANOTHER DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. THE WEATHER WILL
TURN UNSETTLED FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A SLOW MOVING AND WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION. THE HIGH QPF AMOUNTS WILL
OCCUR TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND WESTERN AND CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY.
MODEL QPF HAS NOT BEEN CONSISTENT AND REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA







000
FXUS61 KALY 191029
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
629 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. WITH THE HELP OF A
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO SEASONABLE LEVELS THIS
AFTERNOON. THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK AS A SLOW MOVING AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE
REGION. THE BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE TO THE WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND WESTERN AND CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG AND STRATUS ACROSS THE AREA WILL LIFT
AND BURN OFF BY MID MORNING. OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE ANOTHER DRY
DAY WITH RIDGING IN CONTROL AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN YESTERDAY BY A COUPLE DEGREES WHICH WILL
BRING THEM TO NORMAL LEVELS.

TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING BELOW NORMAL SO FAR FOR AUGUST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. FOR ONLY 5 DAYS HAS THE AVERAGE DAILY TEMPERATURE
BEEN ABOVE NORMAL IN ALBANY...WITH THE GREATEST DEPARTURE BEING
ONLY 2 DEGREES.

HERE ARE THE AVERAGE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES FOR AUGUST
THROUGH THE 18TH...
ALBANY NY: -2.0 DEGREES
GLENS FALLS NY: -0.9 DEGREES
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: -2.4 DEGREES
BENNINGTON VT: -2.8 DEGREES
PITTSFIELD MA: -3.5 DEGREES

FOR MORE CLIMATE INFORMATION CHECK OUT OUR CLIMATE PAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY/CLIMATE

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A WEAK AND SLOW
MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA.

A SHORT WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER MID WEST IS EXPECTED TO
CLOSE OFF THIS AFTERNOON...THEN THIS LOW WILL ONLY GRADUALLY SHIFT
EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS IT
ENCOUNTERS THE RIDGING TO ITS EAST. THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL STRENGTHEN
AND SHIFT WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THIS WEEK
EVENTUALLY ESTABLISHING ITSELF OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. THE RIDGE WILL
THEN BUILD NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE WEEK. IN
THE MEANTIME...SURFACE RIDGING WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AS A RESULT THE UPPER
LOW IS EXPECTED TO OPEN THURSDAY AND MOVE ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. THE
RESULT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE FOR GREATER CHANCES FOR STORMS
TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND
WESTERN/CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY. CHANCES WILL SPREAD FARTHER EAST THURSDAY
HOWEVER THE ALREADY RATHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL BE WEAKENING FURTHER.
CHANCES FOR THUNDER SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY WHERE HIGHER DEW POINTS WILL HELP YIELD GREATER
INSTABILITY.

SEASONABLY WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY...WITH A RETURN TO COOLER SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL VALUES
FOR THURSDAY. OVERALL THE GUIDANCE SEEMS REASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO FEATURE IMPROVING WEATHER FOR THE
CLOSE OF THE WORK WEEK AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM ERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS
AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER.

FRIDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT...A REX BLOCK SETS UP OVER ERN CANADA AND THE
NORTHEAST WITH A CLOSED H500 ANTICYCLONE OVER N-CNTRL QUEBEC...AND
JUST EAST OF HUDSON BAY.  A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION AND PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST.  THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL
LOW AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND UPPER MID
ATLANTIC REGION MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.  H850 TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE +11C TO +13C RANGE.  EXPECT HIGHS TO BE IN THE MID TO U70S IN
THE VALLEYS...AND U60S TO L70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.  THE SHOWERS
WILL DIMINISH SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION IN THE EVENING
WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.

SATURDAY TO SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES IN FROM ERN QUEBEC
NEW BRUNSWICK.  A BROAD CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW FORMS WELL EAST TO
SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD AND THE GULF OR MAINE.  AN H500 RIDGE BUILDS
IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND SE
CANADA.  DRY WX IS EXPECTED BASED ON THE LATEST ECMWF/GFS/WPC
GUIDANCE...AS THE UPSTREAM RIDGE LOOKS TO DOMINATE WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPS EXPECTED WITH M60S TO L70S FOR HIGHS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...AND MID TO U70S OVER THE VALLEYS.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S
WITH SOME SPOTTY U40S OVER THE HIGH PEAKS.  HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY COMFORTABLE WITH SFC DEWPTS GENERALLY IN THE
50S TO L60S.  AN ONSHORE FLOW OF MARITIME AIR WILL IMPACT THE REGION
WITH THE SFC HIGH SITUATED TO THE NORTH AND EAST.

MONDAY...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM SOUTHEAST
CANADA...THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND THE CNTRL MS RIVER VALLEY.  A
WEAK WARM FRONT MAY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WITH AN INCREASE OF
CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER HUMIDITY LEVELS...BUT A DRY FCST HAS BEEN
MAINTAINED BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE.  TEMPS SHOULD FINISH NEAR
NORMAL FOR THE START OF THE WEEK...AS H850 TEMPS INCREASE TO +13C TO
+15C...AND HIGHS IN THE U70S TO L80S WILL BE COMMON IN THE VALLEYS
WITH 70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND TODAY BEFORE
SHIFTING OFFSHORE TONIGHT.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KALB/KPOU THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  KGFL
AND KPSF WILL HAVE SOME RADIATIONAL IFR/LIFR MIST/FOG AND/OR STRATUS
BTWN 06Z-12Z BEFORE BURNING OFF SHORTLY AFTER 12Z.  VFR CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN THEREAFTER WITH JUST A FEW CUMULUS AND A FEW-SCT CIRRUS
AROUND DUE TO THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM THE SFC ANTICYCLONE.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM THIS MORNING...AND BE VARIABLE IN
DIRECTION AT 6 KTS OR LESS DURING THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE BECOMING
LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WED TO WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY TO SATURDAY:NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ANOTHER DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. THE WEATHER WILL
TURN UNSETTLED FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A SLOW MOVING AND WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION. THE BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS
WILL BE TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND WESTERN AND CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S
THIS AFTERNOON WITH A RECOVERY TO 90 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT.
MINIMUM VALUES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS THIS WEEK.
ANOTHER DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. THE WEATHER WILL
TURN UNSETTLED FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A SLOW MOVING AND WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION. THE HIGH QPF AMOUNTS WILL
OCCUR TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND WESTERN AND CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY.
MODEL QPF HAS NOT BEEN CONSISTENT AND REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA








000
FXUS61 KALY 190902
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
502 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. WITH THE HELP OF A
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO SEASONABLE LEVELS THIS
AFTERNOON. THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK AS A SLOW MOVING AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE
REGION. THE BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE TO THE WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND WESTERN AND CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ANOTHER DRY DAY WITH RIDGING IN CONTROL AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN YESTERDAY BY A COUPLE DEGREES
WHICH WILL BRING THEM TO NORMAL LEVELS.

TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING BELOW NORMAL SO FAR FOR AUGUST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. FOR ONLY 5 DAYS HAS THE AVERAGE DAILY TEMPERATURE
BEEN ABOVE NORMAL IN ALBANY...WITH THE GREATEST DEPARTURE BEING
ONLY 2 DEGREES.

HERE ARE THE AVERAGE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES FOR AUGUST
THROUGH THE 18TH...
ALBANY NY: -2.0 DEGREES
GLENS FALLS NY: -0.9 DEGREES
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: -2.4 DEGREES
BENNINGTON VT: -2.8 DEGREES
PITTSFIELD MA: -3.5 DEGREES

FOR MORE CLIMATE INFORMATION CHECK OUT OUR CLIMATE PAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY/CLIMATE

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A WEAK AND SLOW
MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA.

A SHORT WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER MID WEST IS EXPECTED TO
CLOSE OFF THIS AFTERNOON...THEN THIS LOW WILL ONLY GRADUALLY SHIFT
EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS IT
ENCOUNTERS THE RIDGING TO ITS EAST. THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL STRENGTHEN
AND SHIFT WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THIS WEEK
EVENTUALLY ESTABLISHING ITSELF OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. THE RIDGE WILL
THEN BUILD NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE WEEK. IN
THE MEANTIME...SURFACE RIDGING WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AS A RESULT THE UPPER
LOW IS EXPECTED TO OPEN THURSDAY AND MOVE ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. THE
RESULT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE FOR GREATER CHANCES FOR STORMS
TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND
WESTERN/CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY. CHANCES WILL SPREAD FARTHER EAST THURSDAY
HOWEVER THE ALREADY RATHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL BE WEAKENING FURTHER.
CHANCES FOR THUNDER SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY WHERE HIGHER DEW POINTS WILL HELP YIELD GREATER
INSTABILITY.

SEASONABLY WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY...WITH A RETURN TO COOLER SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL VALUES
FOR THURSDAY. OVERALL THE GUIDANCE SEEMS REASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO FEATURE IMPROVING WEATHER FOR THE
CLOSE OF THE WORK WEEK AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM ERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS
AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER.

FRIDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT...A REX BLOCK SETS UP OVER ERN CANADA AND THE
NORTHEAST WITH A CLOSED H500 ANTICYCLONE OVER N-CNTRL QUEBEC...AND
JUST EAST OF HUDSON BAY.  A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION AND PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST.  THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL
LOW AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND UPPER MID
ATLANTIC REGION MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.  H850 TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE +11C TO +13C RANGE.  EXPECT HIGHS TO BE IN THE MID TO U70S IN
THE VALLEYS...AND U60S TO L70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.  THE SHOWERS
WILL DIMINISH SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION IN THE EVENING
WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.

SATURDAY TO SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES IN FROM ERN QUEBEC
NEW BRUNSWICK.  A BROAD CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW FORMS WELL EAST TO
SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD AND THE GULF OR MAINE.  AN H500 RIDGE BUILDS
IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND SE
CANADA.  DRY WX IS EXPECTED BASED ON THE LATEST ECMWF/GFS/WPC
GUIDANCE...AS THE UPSTREAM RIDGE LOOKS TO DOMINATE WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPS EXPECTED WITH M60S TO L70S FOR HIGHS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...AND MID TO U70S OVER THE VALLEYS.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S
WITH SOME SPOTTY U40S OVER THE HIGH PEAKS.  HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY COMFORTABLE WITH SFC DEWPTS GENERALLY IN THE
50S TO L60S.  AN ONSHORE FLOW OF MARITIME AIR WILL IMPACT THE REGION
WITH THE SFC HIGH SITUATED TO THE NORTH AND EAST.

MONDAY...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM SOUTHEAST
CANADA...THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND THE CNTRL MS RIVER VALLEY.  A
WEAK WARM FRONT MAY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WITH AN INCREASE OF
CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER HUMIDITY LEVELS...BUT A DRY FCST HAS BEEN
MAINTAINED BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE.  TEMPS SHOULD FINISH NEAR
NORMAL FOR THE START OF THE WEEK...AS H850 TEMPS INCREASE TO +13C TO
+15C...AND HIGHS IN THE U70S TO L80S WILL BE COMMON IN THE VALLEYS
WITH 70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND TODAY BEFORE
SHIFTING OFFSHORE TONIGHT.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KALB/KPOU THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  KGFL
AND KPSF WILL HAVE SOME RADIATIONAL IFR/LIFR MIST/FOG AND/OR STRATUS
BTWN 06Z-12Z BEFORE BURNING OFF SHORTLY AFTER 12Z.  VFR CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN THEREAFTER WITH JUST A FEW CUMULUS AND A FEW-SCT CIRRUS
AROUND DUE TO THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM THE SFC ANTICYCLONE.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM THIS MORNING...AND BE VARIABLE IN
DIRECTION AT 6 KTS OR LESS DURING THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE BECOMING
LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WED TO WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY TO SATURDAY:NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ANOTHER DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. THE WEATHER WILL
TURN UNSETTLED FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A SLOW MOVING AND WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION. THE BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS
WILL BE TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND WESTERN AND CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S
THIS AFTERNOON WITH A RECOVERY TO 90 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT.
MINIMUM VALUES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS THIS WEEK.
ANOTHER DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. THE WEATHER WILL
TURN UNSETTLED FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A SLOW MOVING AND WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION. THE HIGH QPF AMOUNTS WILL
OCCUR TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND WESTERN AND CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY.
MODEL QPF HAS NOT BEEN CONSISTENT AND REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA







000
FXUS61 KALY 190902
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
502 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. WITH THE HELP OF A
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO SEASONABLE LEVELS THIS
AFTERNOON. THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK AS A SLOW MOVING AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE
REGION. THE BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE TO THE WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND WESTERN AND CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ANOTHER DRY DAY WITH RIDGING IN CONTROL AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN YESTERDAY BY A COUPLE DEGREES
WHICH WILL BRING THEM TO NORMAL LEVELS.

TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING BELOW NORMAL SO FAR FOR AUGUST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. FOR ONLY 5 DAYS HAS THE AVERAGE DAILY TEMPERATURE
BEEN ABOVE NORMAL IN ALBANY...WITH THE GREATEST DEPARTURE BEING
ONLY 2 DEGREES.

HERE ARE THE AVERAGE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES FOR AUGUST
THROUGH THE 18TH...
ALBANY NY: -2.0 DEGREES
GLENS FALLS NY: -0.9 DEGREES
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: -2.4 DEGREES
BENNINGTON VT: -2.8 DEGREES
PITTSFIELD MA: -3.5 DEGREES

FOR MORE CLIMATE INFORMATION CHECK OUT OUR CLIMATE PAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY/CLIMATE

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A WEAK AND SLOW
MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA.

A SHORT WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER MID WEST IS EXPECTED TO
CLOSE OFF THIS AFTERNOON...THEN THIS LOW WILL ONLY GRADUALLY SHIFT
EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS IT
ENCOUNTERS THE RIDGING TO ITS EAST. THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL STRENGTHEN
AND SHIFT WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THIS WEEK
EVENTUALLY ESTABLISHING ITSELF OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. THE RIDGE WILL
THEN BUILD NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE WEEK. IN
THE MEANTIME...SURFACE RIDGING WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AS A RESULT THE UPPER
LOW IS EXPECTED TO OPEN THURSDAY AND MOVE ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. THE
RESULT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE FOR GREATER CHANCES FOR STORMS
TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND
WESTERN/CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY. CHANCES WILL SPREAD FARTHER EAST THURSDAY
HOWEVER THE ALREADY RATHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL BE WEAKENING FURTHER.
CHANCES FOR THUNDER SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY WHERE HIGHER DEW POINTS WILL HELP YIELD GREATER
INSTABILITY.

SEASONABLY WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY...WITH A RETURN TO COOLER SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL VALUES
FOR THURSDAY. OVERALL THE GUIDANCE SEEMS REASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO FEATURE IMPROVING WEATHER FOR THE
CLOSE OF THE WORK WEEK AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM ERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS
AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER.

FRIDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT...A REX BLOCK SETS UP OVER ERN CANADA AND THE
NORTHEAST WITH A CLOSED H500 ANTICYCLONE OVER N-CNTRL QUEBEC...AND
JUST EAST OF HUDSON BAY.  A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION AND PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST.  THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL
LOW AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND UPPER MID
ATLANTIC REGION MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.  H850 TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE +11C TO +13C RANGE.  EXPECT HIGHS TO BE IN THE MID TO U70S IN
THE VALLEYS...AND U60S TO L70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.  THE SHOWERS
WILL DIMINISH SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION IN THE EVENING
WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.

SATURDAY TO SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES IN FROM ERN QUEBEC
NEW BRUNSWICK.  A BROAD CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW FORMS WELL EAST TO
SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD AND THE GULF OR MAINE.  AN H500 RIDGE BUILDS
IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND SE
CANADA.  DRY WX IS EXPECTED BASED ON THE LATEST ECMWF/GFS/WPC
GUIDANCE...AS THE UPSTREAM RIDGE LOOKS TO DOMINATE WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPS EXPECTED WITH M60S TO L70S FOR HIGHS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...AND MID TO U70S OVER THE VALLEYS.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S
WITH SOME SPOTTY U40S OVER THE HIGH PEAKS.  HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY COMFORTABLE WITH SFC DEWPTS GENERALLY IN THE
50S TO L60S.  AN ONSHORE FLOW OF MARITIME AIR WILL IMPACT THE REGION
WITH THE SFC HIGH SITUATED TO THE NORTH AND EAST.

MONDAY...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM SOUTHEAST
CANADA...THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND THE CNTRL MS RIVER VALLEY.  A
WEAK WARM FRONT MAY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WITH AN INCREASE OF
CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER HUMIDITY LEVELS...BUT A DRY FCST HAS BEEN
MAINTAINED BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE.  TEMPS SHOULD FINISH NEAR
NORMAL FOR THE START OF THE WEEK...AS H850 TEMPS INCREASE TO +13C TO
+15C...AND HIGHS IN THE U70S TO L80S WILL BE COMMON IN THE VALLEYS
WITH 70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND TODAY BEFORE
SHIFTING OFFSHORE TONIGHT.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KALB/KPOU THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  KGFL
AND KPSF WILL HAVE SOME RADIATIONAL IFR/LIFR MIST/FOG AND/OR STRATUS
BTWN 06Z-12Z BEFORE BURNING OFF SHORTLY AFTER 12Z.  VFR CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN THEREAFTER WITH JUST A FEW CUMULUS AND A FEW-SCT CIRRUS
AROUND DUE TO THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM THE SFC ANTICYCLONE.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM THIS MORNING...AND BE VARIABLE IN
DIRECTION AT 6 KTS OR LESS DURING THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE BECOMING
LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WED TO WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY TO SATURDAY:NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ANOTHER DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. THE WEATHER WILL
TURN UNSETTLED FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A SLOW MOVING AND WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION. THE BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS
WILL BE TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND WESTERN AND CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S
THIS AFTERNOON WITH A RECOVERY TO 90 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT.
MINIMUM VALUES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS THIS WEEK.
ANOTHER DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. THE WEATHER WILL
TURN UNSETTLED FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A SLOW MOVING AND WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION. THE HIGH QPF AMOUNTS WILL
OCCUR TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND WESTERN AND CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY.
MODEL QPF HAS NOT BEEN CONSISTENT AND REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA







000
FXUS61 KALY 190902
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
502 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. WITH THE HELP OF A
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO SEASONABLE LEVELS THIS
AFTERNOON. THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK AS A SLOW MOVING AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE
REGION. THE BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE TO THE WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND WESTERN AND CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ANOTHER DRY DAY WITH RIDGING IN CONTROL AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN YESTERDAY BY A COUPLE DEGREES
WHICH WILL BRING THEM TO NORMAL LEVELS.

TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING BELOW NORMAL SO FAR FOR AUGUST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. FOR ONLY 5 DAYS HAS THE AVERAGE DAILY TEMPERATURE
BEEN ABOVE NORMAL IN ALBANY...WITH THE GREATEST DEPARTURE BEING
ONLY 2 DEGREES.

HERE ARE THE AVERAGE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES FOR AUGUST
THROUGH THE 18TH...
ALBANY NY: -2.0 DEGREES
GLENS FALLS NY: -0.9 DEGREES
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: -2.4 DEGREES
BENNINGTON VT: -2.8 DEGREES
PITTSFIELD MA: -3.5 DEGREES

FOR MORE CLIMATE INFORMATION CHECK OUT OUR CLIMATE PAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY/CLIMATE

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A WEAK AND SLOW
MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA.

A SHORT WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER MID WEST IS EXPECTED TO
CLOSE OFF THIS AFTERNOON...THEN THIS LOW WILL ONLY GRADUALLY SHIFT
EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS IT
ENCOUNTERS THE RIDGING TO ITS EAST. THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL STRENGTHEN
AND SHIFT WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THIS WEEK
EVENTUALLY ESTABLISHING ITSELF OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. THE RIDGE WILL
THEN BUILD NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE WEEK. IN
THE MEANTIME...SURFACE RIDGING WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AS A RESULT THE UPPER
LOW IS EXPECTED TO OPEN THURSDAY AND MOVE ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. THE
RESULT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE FOR GREATER CHANCES FOR STORMS
TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND
WESTERN/CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY. CHANCES WILL SPREAD FARTHER EAST THURSDAY
HOWEVER THE ALREADY RATHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL BE WEAKENING FURTHER.
CHANCES FOR THUNDER SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY WHERE HIGHER DEW POINTS WILL HELP YIELD GREATER
INSTABILITY.

SEASONABLY WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY...WITH A RETURN TO COOLER SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL VALUES
FOR THURSDAY. OVERALL THE GUIDANCE SEEMS REASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO FEATURE IMPROVING WEATHER FOR THE
CLOSE OF THE WORK WEEK AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM ERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS
AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER.

FRIDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT...A REX BLOCK SETS UP OVER ERN CANADA AND THE
NORTHEAST WITH A CLOSED H500 ANTICYCLONE OVER N-CNTRL QUEBEC...AND
JUST EAST OF HUDSON BAY.  A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION AND PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST.  THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL
LOW AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND UPPER MID
ATLANTIC REGION MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.  H850 TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE +11C TO +13C RANGE.  EXPECT HIGHS TO BE IN THE MID TO U70S IN
THE VALLEYS...AND U60S TO L70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.  THE SHOWERS
WILL DIMINISH SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION IN THE EVENING
WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.

SATURDAY TO SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES IN FROM ERN QUEBEC
NEW BRUNSWICK.  A BROAD CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW FORMS WELL EAST TO
SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD AND THE GULF OR MAINE.  AN H500 RIDGE BUILDS
IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND SE
CANADA.  DRY WX IS EXPECTED BASED ON THE LATEST ECMWF/GFS/WPC
GUIDANCE...AS THE UPSTREAM RIDGE LOOKS TO DOMINATE WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPS EXPECTED WITH M60S TO L70S FOR HIGHS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...AND MID TO U70S OVER THE VALLEYS.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S
WITH SOME SPOTTY U40S OVER THE HIGH PEAKS.  HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY COMFORTABLE WITH SFC DEWPTS GENERALLY IN THE
50S TO L60S.  AN ONSHORE FLOW OF MARITIME AIR WILL IMPACT THE REGION
WITH THE SFC HIGH SITUATED TO THE NORTH AND EAST.

MONDAY...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM SOUTHEAST
CANADA...THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND THE CNTRL MS RIVER VALLEY.  A
WEAK WARM FRONT MAY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WITH AN INCREASE OF
CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER HUMIDITY LEVELS...BUT A DRY FCST HAS BEEN
MAINTAINED BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE.  TEMPS SHOULD FINISH NEAR
NORMAL FOR THE START OF THE WEEK...AS H850 TEMPS INCREASE TO +13C TO
+15C...AND HIGHS IN THE U70S TO L80S WILL BE COMMON IN THE VALLEYS
WITH 70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND TODAY BEFORE
SHIFTING OFFSHORE TONIGHT.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KALB/KPOU THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  KGFL
AND KPSF WILL HAVE SOME RADIATIONAL IFR/LIFR MIST/FOG AND/OR STRATUS
BTWN 06Z-12Z BEFORE BURNING OFF SHORTLY AFTER 12Z.  VFR CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN THEREAFTER WITH JUST A FEW CUMULUS AND A FEW-SCT CIRRUS
AROUND DUE TO THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM THE SFC ANTICYCLONE.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM THIS MORNING...AND BE VARIABLE IN
DIRECTION AT 6 KTS OR LESS DURING THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE BECOMING
LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WED TO WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY TO SATURDAY:NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ANOTHER DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. THE WEATHER WILL
TURN UNSETTLED FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A SLOW MOVING AND WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION. THE BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS
WILL BE TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND WESTERN AND CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S
THIS AFTERNOON WITH A RECOVERY TO 90 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT.
MINIMUM VALUES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS THIS WEEK.
ANOTHER DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. THE WEATHER WILL
TURN UNSETTLED FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A SLOW MOVING AND WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION. THE HIGH QPF AMOUNTS WILL
OCCUR TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND WESTERN AND CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY.
MODEL QPF HAS NOT BEEN CONSISTENT AND REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA







000
FXUS61 KALY 190902
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
502 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. WITH THE HELP OF A
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO SEASONABLE LEVELS THIS
AFTERNOON. THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK AS A SLOW MOVING AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE
REGION. THE BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE TO THE WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND WESTERN AND CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ANOTHER DRY DAY WITH RIDGING IN CONTROL AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN YESTERDAY BY A COUPLE DEGREES
WHICH WILL BRING THEM TO NORMAL LEVELS.

TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING BELOW NORMAL SO FAR FOR AUGUST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. FOR ONLY 5 DAYS HAS THE AVERAGE DAILY TEMPERATURE
BEEN ABOVE NORMAL IN ALBANY...WITH THE GREATEST DEPARTURE BEING
ONLY 2 DEGREES.

HERE ARE THE AVERAGE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES FOR AUGUST
THROUGH THE 18TH...
ALBANY NY: -2.0 DEGREES
GLENS FALLS NY: -0.9 DEGREES
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: -2.4 DEGREES
BENNINGTON VT: -2.8 DEGREES
PITTSFIELD MA: -3.5 DEGREES

FOR MORE CLIMATE INFORMATION CHECK OUT OUR CLIMATE PAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY/CLIMATE

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A WEAK AND SLOW
MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA.

A SHORT WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER MID WEST IS EXPECTED TO
CLOSE OFF THIS AFTERNOON...THEN THIS LOW WILL ONLY GRADUALLY SHIFT
EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS IT
ENCOUNTERS THE RIDGING TO ITS EAST. THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL STRENGTHEN
AND SHIFT WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THIS WEEK
EVENTUALLY ESTABLISHING ITSELF OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. THE RIDGE WILL
THEN BUILD NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE WEEK. IN
THE MEANTIME...SURFACE RIDGING WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AS A RESULT THE UPPER
LOW IS EXPECTED TO OPEN THURSDAY AND MOVE ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. THE
RESULT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE FOR GREATER CHANCES FOR STORMS
TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND
WESTERN/CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY. CHANCES WILL SPREAD FARTHER EAST THURSDAY
HOWEVER THE ALREADY RATHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL BE WEAKENING FURTHER.
CHANCES FOR THUNDER SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY WHERE HIGHER DEW POINTS WILL HELP YIELD GREATER
INSTABILITY.

SEASONABLY WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY...WITH A RETURN TO COOLER SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL VALUES
FOR THURSDAY. OVERALL THE GUIDANCE SEEMS REASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO FEATURE IMPROVING WEATHER FOR THE
CLOSE OF THE WORK WEEK AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM ERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS
AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER.

FRIDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT...A REX BLOCK SETS UP OVER ERN CANADA AND THE
NORTHEAST WITH A CLOSED H500 ANTICYCLONE OVER N-CNTRL QUEBEC...AND
JUST EAST OF HUDSON BAY.  A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION AND PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST.  THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL
LOW AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND UPPER MID
ATLANTIC REGION MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.  H850 TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE +11C TO +13C RANGE.  EXPECT HIGHS TO BE IN THE MID TO U70S IN
THE VALLEYS...AND U60S TO L70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.  THE SHOWERS
WILL DIMINISH SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION IN THE EVENING
WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.

SATURDAY TO SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES IN FROM ERN QUEBEC
NEW BRUNSWICK.  A BROAD CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW FORMS WELL EAST TO
SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD AND THE GULF OR MAINE.  AN H500 RIDGE BUILDS
IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND SE
CANADA.  DRY WX IS EXPECTED BASED ON THE LATEST ECMWF/GFS/WPC
GUIDANCE...AS THE UPSTREAM RIDGE LOOKS TO DOMINATE WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPS EXPECTED WITH M60S TO L70S FOR HIGHS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...AND MID TO U70S OVER THE VALLEYS.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S
WITH SOME SPOTTY U40S OVER THE HIGH PEAKS.  HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY COMFORTABLE WITH SFC DEWPTS GENERALLY IN THE
50S TO L60S.  AN ONSHORE FLOW OF MARITIME AIR WILL IMPACT THE REGION
WITH THE SFC HIGH SITUATED TO THE NORTH AND EAST.

MONDAY...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM SOUTHEAST
CANADA...THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND THE CNTRL MS RIVER VALLEY.  A
WEAK WARM FRONT MAY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WITH AN INCREASE OF
CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER HUMIDITY LEVELS...BUT A DRY FCST HAS BEEN
MAINTAINED BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE.  TEMPS SHOULD FINISH NEAR
NORMAL FOR THE START OF THE WEEK...AS H850 TEMPS INCREASE TO +13C TO
+15C...AND HIGHS IN THE U70S TO L80S WILL BE COMMON IN THE VALLEYS
WITH 70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND TODAY BEFORE
SHIFTING OFFSHORE TONIGHT.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KALB/KPOU THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  KGFL
AND KPSF WILL HAVE SOME RADIATIONAL IFR/LIFR MIST/FOG AND/OR STRATUS
BTWN 06Z-12Z BEFORE BURNING OFF SHORTLY AFTER 12Z.  VFR CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN THEREAFTER WITH JUST A FEW CUMULUS AND A FEW-SCT CIRRUS
AROUND DUE TO THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM THE SFC ANTICYCLONE.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM THIS MORNING...AND BE VARIABLE IN
DIRECTION AT 6 KTS OR LESS DURING THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE BECOMING
LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WED TO WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY TO SATURDAY:NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ANOTHER DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. THE WEATHER WILL
TURN UNSETTLED FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A SLOW MOVING AND WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION. THE BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS
WILL BE TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND WESTERN AND CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S
THIS AFTERNOON WITH A RECOVERY TO 90 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT.
MINIMUM VALUES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS THIS WEEK.
ANOTHER DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. THE WEATHER WILL
TURN UNSETTLED FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A SLOW MOVING AND WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION. THE HIGH QPF AMOUNTS WILL
OCCUR TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND WESTERN AND CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY.
MODEL QPF HAS NOT BEEN CONSISTENT AND REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA







000
FXUS61 KOKX 190838
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
438 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE
HIGH REMAINS TO THE NORTHEAST LATE THIS WEEK AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE PASS TO THE WEST AND
SOUTH OF THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A 1015 HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER QUEBEC EARLY THIS MRNG. WITH CLR
SKIES...SOME RADIATIONAL FOG POSSIBLE THRU SUNRISE IN THE OUTLYING
AREAS.

THE HIGH WILL BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND TODAY...RESULTING IN LGT
WINDS AND SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE CWA. TEMPS CLOSE TO GMOS25 WHICH
ARE ABOUT A DEGREE BLW CLIMO.

ON THE OCEAN...A 2 FT ESE SWELL GETTING PICKED UP AT BUOY 44017.
WITH THE FCST GUIDANCE ON TRACK...WILL CONTINUE THE MODERATE RISK
FOR THIS AFTN. IT IS MARGINAL WITH WAVE HEIGHTS ONLY AROUND 2 FT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE HIGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER NEW ENGLAND THRU WED...WITH THE
BIG THREE MODELS CONTINUING TO KEEP PASSING LO PRES SE OF THE CWA
AND CONVECTIVE PCPN W OF THE CWA. AS A RESULT HAVE KEPT THE FCST
DRY. RADIATION FOG POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY IN THE PINE BARRENS AND
INTERIOR VALLEYS WED MRNG. TEMPS A BLEND OF GUIDANCE...WHICH ARE
CLOSE TO CLIMO DURING THE DAY BUT A FEW DEGREES BLW NORMAL AT NGT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THIS TIME FRAME WILL FEATURE COOLER THAN NORMAL BUT MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS.

IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS...A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS OUR AREA THURSDAY...PASSING JUST SOUTHEAST
FRIDAY. THIS TROUGH DEEPENS SLIGHTLY AND REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS
TO THE NORTH OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME.

AT THE SFC...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS TO THE WEST AS A SERIES OF
WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTERS RIDE ALONG IT. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTHEAST RIDGES SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN POPS FOR WESTERN LOCATIONS LATE AT NIGHT AND THROUGH THURSDAY.
POSSIBLE SHOWERS CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...SETTLING SOUTHEAST.
THEREAFTER...BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WOULD BE TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...CLOSER TO THE LOW AND FRONT.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THIS TIME
FRAME DUE TO AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS...COOLER TEMPS ALOFT
AND PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW. MAX TEMPS MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE 80
DEGREE MARK NEAR NYC METRO...WITH WIDESPREAD 70S ELSEWHERE. LOWS AT
NIGHT IN THE 50S AND 60S...AGAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

A SLIGHT MODERATION IN TEMPS BACK TO NORMAL IS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS HEIGHTS RISE.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE
SOUTH.

A NE-E FLOW TUE MORNING WILL BECOME SE AS HIGH PRES SHIFTS E OF
THE AREA. SEABREEZE INFLUENCES LIKELY AT COASTAL TERMINALS AFT
17Z.

WIND DIRECTIONS COULD BE 20-30 DEGREES RIGHT OF FORECAST AT KJFK
AND KLGA AFT 17Z TUE.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES  SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ISOLD SHRA/TSTM POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN
TERMINALS.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...CHANCE OF SHOWERS. MVFR POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BLW SCA LVLS THRU WED.

A PERSISTENT EASTERLY WIND IS EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. WINDS INCREASE SLIGHTLY FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO
THE SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER...DO NOT
EXPECT WIND SPEEDS TO REACH SCA CRITERIA...OR 25 KTS. SEAS MAY BUILD
IN RESPONSE...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 5 FT OVER THE OCEAN WATERS PER
WAVE WATCH III.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN THRU THE WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/PW
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...JMC/PW
HYDROLOGY...JMC/PW






000
FXUS61 KOKX 190838
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
438 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE
HIGH REMAINS TO THE NORTHEAST LATE THIS WEEK AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE PASS TO THE WEST AND
SOUTH OF THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A 1015 HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER QUEBEC EARLY THIS MRNG. WITH CLR
SKIES...SOME RADIATIONAL FOG POSSIBLE THRU SUNRISE IN THE OUTLYING
AREAS.

THE HIGH WILL BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND TODAY...RESULTING IN LGT
WINDS AND SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE CWA. TEMPS CLOSE TO GMOS25 WHICH
ARE ABOUT A DEGREE BLW CLIMO.

ON THE OCEAN...A 2 FT ESE SWELL GETTING PICKED UP AT BUOY 44017.
WITH THE FCST GUIDANCE ON TRACK...WILL CONTINUE THE MODERATE RISK
FOR THIS AFTN. IT IS MARGINAL WITH WAVE HEIGHTS ONLY AROUND 2 FT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE HIGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER NEW ENGLAND THRU WED...WITH THE
BIG THREE MODELS CONTINUING TO KEEP PASSING LO PRES SE OF THE CWA
AND CONVECTIVE PCPN W OF THE CWA. AS A RESULT HAVE KEPT THE FCST
DRY. RADIATION FOG POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY IN THE PINE BARRENS AND
INTERIOR VALLEYS WED MRNG. TEMPS A BLEND OF GUIDANCE...WHICH ARE
CLOSE TO CLIMO DURING THE DAY BUT A FEW DEGREES BLW NORMAL AT NGT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THIS TIME FRAME WILL FEATURE COOLER THAN NORMAL BUT MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS.

IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS...A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS OUR AREA THURSDAY...PASSING JUST SOUTHEAST
FRIDAY. THIS TROUGH DEEPENS SLIGHTLY AND REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS
TO THE NORTH OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME.

AT THE SFC...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS TO THE WEST AS A SERIES OF
WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTERS RIDE ALONG IT. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTHEAST RIDGES SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN POPS FOR WESTERN LOCATIONS LATE AT NIGHT AND THROUGH THURSDAY.
POSSIBLE SHOWERS CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...SETTLING SOUTHEAST.
THEREAFTER...BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WOULD BE TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...CLOSER TO THE LOW AND FRONT.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THIS TIME
FRAME DUE TO AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS...COOLER TEMPS ALOFT
AND PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW. MAX TEMPS MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE 80
DEGREE MARK NEAR NYC METRO...WITH WIDESPREAD 70S ELSEWHERE. LOWS AT
NIGHT IN THE 50S AND 60S...AGAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

A SLIGHT MODERATION IN TEMPS BACK TO NORMAL IS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS HEIGHTS RISE.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE
SOUTH.

A NE-E FLOW TUE MORNING WILL BECOME SE AS HIGH PRES SHIFTS E OF
THE AREA. SEABREEZE INFLUENCES LIKELY AT COASTAL TERMINALS AFT
17Z.

WIND DIRECTIONS COULD BE 20-30 DEGREES RIGHT OF FORECAST AT KJFK
AND KLGA AFT 17Z TUE.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES  SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ISOLD SHRA/TSTM POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN
TERMINALS.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...CHANCE OF SHOWERS. MVFR POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BLW SCA LVLS THRU WED.

A PERSISTENT EASTERLY WIND IS EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. WINDS INCREASE SLIGHTLY FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO
THE SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER...DO NOT
EXPECT WIND SPEEDS TO REACH SCA CRITERIA...OR 25 KTS. SEAS MAY BUILD
IN RESPONSE...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 5 FT OVER THE OCEAN WATERS PER
WAVE WATCH III.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN THRU THE WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/PW
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...JMC/PW
HYDROLOGY...JMC/PW






000
FXUS61 KOKX 190838
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
438 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE
HIGH REMAINS TO THE NORTHEAST LATE THIS WEEK AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE PASS TO THE WEST AND
SOUTH OF THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A 1015 HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER QUEBEC EARLY THIS MRNG. WITH CLR
SKIES...SOME RADIATIONAL FOG POSSIBLE THRU SUNRISE IN THE OUTLYING
AREAS.

THE HIGH WILL BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND TODAY...RESULTING IN LGT
WINDS AND SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE CWA. TEMPS CLOSE TO GMOS25 WHICH
ARE ABOUT A DEGREE BLW CLIMO.

ON THE OCEAN...A 2 FT ESE SWELL GETTING PICKED UP AT BUOY 44017.
WITH THE FCST GUIDANCE ON TRACK...WILL CONTINUE THE MODERATE RISK
FOR THIS AFTN. IT IS MARGINAL WITH WAVE HEIGHTS ONLY AROUND 2 FT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE HIGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER NEW ENGLAND THRU WED...WITH THE
BIG THREE MODELS CONTINUING TO KEEP PASSING LO PRES SE OF THE CWA
AND CONVECTIVE PCPN W OF THE CWA. AS A RESULT HAVE KEPT THE FCST
DRY. RADIATION FOG POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY IN THE PINE BARRENS AND
INTERIOR VALLEYS WED MRNG. TEMPS A BLEND OF GUIDANCE...WHICH ARE
CLOSE TO CLIMO DURING THE DAY BUT A FEW DEGREES BLW NORMAL AT NGT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THIS TIME FRAME WILL FEATURE COOLER THAN NORMAL BUT MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS.

IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS...A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS OUR AREA THURSDAY...PASSING JUST SOUTHEAST
FRIDAY. THIS TROUGH DEEPENS SLIGHTLY AND REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS
TO THE NORTH OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME.

AT THE SFC...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS TO THE WEST AS A SERIES OF
WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTERS RIDE ALONG IT. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTHEAST RIDGES SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN POPS FOR WESTERN LOCATIONS LATE AT NIGHT AND THROUGH THURSDAY.
POSSIBLE SHOWERS CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...SETTLING SOUTHEAST.
THEREAFTER...BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WOULD BE TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...CLOSER TO THE LOW AND FRONT.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THIS TIME
FRAME DUE TO AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS...COOLER TEMPS ALOFT
AND PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW. MAX TEMPS MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE 80
DEGREE MARK NEAR NYC METRO...WITH WIDESPREAD 70S ELSEWHERE. LOWS AT
NIGHT IN THE 50S AND 60S...AGAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

A SLIGHT MODERATION IN TEMPS BACK TO NORMAL IS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS HEIGHTS RISE.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE
SOUTH.

A NE-E FLOW TUE MORNING WILL BECOME SE AS HIGH PRES SHIFTS E OF
THE AREA. SEABREEZE INFLUENCES LIKELY AT COASTAL TERMINALS AFT
17Z.

WIND DIRECTIONS COULD BE 20-30 DEGREES RIGHT OF FORECAST AT KJFK
AND KLGA AFT 17Z TUE.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES  SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ISOLD SHRA/TSTM POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN
TERMINALS.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...CHANCE OF SHOWERS. MVFR POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BLW SCA LVLS THRU WED.

A PERSISTENT EASTERLY WIND IS EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. WINDS INCREASE SLIGHTLY FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO
THE SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER...DO NOT
EXPECT WIND SPEEDS TO REACH SCA CRITERIA...OR 25 KTS. SEAS MAY BUILD
IN RESPONSE...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 5 FT OVER THE OCEAN WATERS PER
WAVE WATCH III.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN THRU THE WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/PW
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...JMC/PW
HYDROLOGY...JMC/PW






000
FXUS61 KOKX 190838
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
438 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE
HIGH REMAINS TO THE NORTHEAST LATE THIS WEEK AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE PASS TO THE WEST AND
SOUTH OF THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A 1015 HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER QUEBEC EARLY THIS MRNG. WITH CLR
SKIES...SOME RADIATIONAL FOG POSSIBLE THRU SUNRISE IN THE OUTLYING
AREAS.

THE HIGH WILL BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND TODAY...RESULTING IN LGT
WINDS AND SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE CWA. TEMPS CLOSE TO GMOS25 WHICH
ARE ABOUT A DEGREE BLW CLIMO.

ON THE OCEAN...A 2 FT ESE SWELL GETTING PICKED UP AT BUOY 44017.
WITH THE FCST GUIDANCE ON TRACK...WILL CONTINUE THE MODERATE RISK
FOR THIS AFTN. IT IS MARGINAL WITH WAVE HEIGHTS ONLY AROUND 2 FT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE HIGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER NEW ENGLAND THRU WED...WITH THE
BIG THREE MODELS CONTINUING TO KEEP PASSING LO PRES SE OF THE CWA
AND CONVECTIVE PCPN W OF THE CWA. AS A RESULT HAVE KEPT THE FCST
DRY. RADIATION FOG POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY IN THE PINE BARRENS AND
INTERIOR VALLEYS WED MRNG. TEMPS A BLEND OF GUIDANCE...WHICH ARE
CLOSE TO CLIMO DURING THE DAY BUT A FEW DEGREES BLW NORMAL AT NGT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THIS TIME FRAME WILL FEATURE COOLER THAN NORMAL BUT MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS.

IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS...A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS OUR AREA THURSDAY...PASSING JUST SOUTHEAST
FRIDAY. THIS TROUGH DEEPENS SLIGHTLY AND REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS
TO THE NORTH OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME.

AT THE SFC...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS TO THE WEST AS A SERIES OF
WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTERS RIDE ALONG IT. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTHEAST RIDGES SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN POPS FOR WESTERN LOCATIONS LATE AT NIGHT AND THROUGH THURSDAY.
POSSIBLE SHOWERS CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...SETTLING SOUTHEAST.
THEREAFTER...BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WOULD BE TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...CLOSER TO THE LOW AND FRONT.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THIS TIME
FRAME DUE TO AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS...COOLER TEMPS ALOFT
AND PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW. MAX TEMPS MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE 80
DEGREE MARK NEAR NYC METRO...WITH WIDESPREAD 70S ELSEWHERE. LOWS AT
NIGHT IN THE 50S AND 60S...AGAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

A SLIGHT MODERATION IN TEMPS BACK TO NORMAL IS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS HEIGHTS RISE.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE
SOUTH.

A NE-E FLOW TUE MORNING WILL BECOME SE AS HIGH PRES SHIFTS E OF
THE AREA. SEABREEZE INFLUENCES LIKELY AT COASTAL TERMINALS AFT
17Z.

WIND DIRECTIONS COULD BE 20-30 DEGREES RIGHT OF FORECAST AT KJFK
AND KLGA AFT 17Z TUE.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES  SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ISOLD SHRA/TSTM POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN
TERMINALS.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...CHANCE OF SHOWERS. MVFR POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BLW SCA LVLS THRU WED.

A PERSISTENT EASTERLY WIND IS EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. WINDS INCREASE SLIGHTLY FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO
THE SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER...DO NOT
EXPECT WIND SPEEDS TO REACH SCA CRITERIA...OR 25 KTS. SEAS MAY BUILD
IN RESPONSE...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 5 FT OVER THE OCEAN WATERS PER
WAVE WATCH III.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN THRU THE WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/PW
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...JMC/PW
HYDROLOGY...JMC/PW






000
FXUS61 KBOX 190812
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
412 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS
WEEKEND WITH REGARDS TO THE PROXIMITY OF A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE
TO NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MIN TEMPS CONTINUE INTO THE 40S FOR MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS SW NH
AND NW MA THANKS TO MAINLY CLEAR SKIES /UPPER LVL CI IS DOING
LITTLE TO STAVE RADIATIONAL COOLING/. ELSEWHERE...BY
SUNRISE...TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE LOW 50S EXCEPT IN THE URBAN
AREAS.

IN SPITE OF THIS COOL START...A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE TO START
THE DAY AS GRADUALLY WEAKENING MID LVL RIDGE AND ATTENDANT HIGH
PRES CREST OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. THEREFORE...EXPECT
THE DRY WX TO PREVAIL WITH ONLY A FEW WISPS OF CI FROM SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WELL TO THE NW AND A FEW POP DIURNAL CU THIS AFTERNOON. BL
MIXING SHOULD EASILY TAP THE H85 LVL...WHERE TEMPS AVG 10-12C.
THEREFORE...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80. FLOW WILL
SHIFT FROM THE W-NW TO S AS THE HIGH MOVES E EXCEPT NEAR SHORE
WHERE SEA BREEZES ARE EXPECTED. THESE SEA BREEZES ARE LIKELY TO
KEEP HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID 70S CLOSE TO THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
MID LVL RIDGE CONTINUES TO DECLINE AS WEAK MID LVL CUTOFF PUSHES
TO THE E. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTERS THAT SUBSIDENCE IS
LIKELY TO PREVAIL BETWEEN THIS CUTOFF AND A SECOND IN ATLANTIC
CANADA. THEREFORE...EXCEPT FOR MAYBE SOME HIGH CLOUDS LEFTOVER
FROM CONVECTION WELL TO THE W...ANOTHER NIGHT WITH CONDITIONS
FAVORABLE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED. IN FACT...MOS IS
STILL LIKELY A LITTLE TOO WARM IF SKIES ARE ALLOWED TO CLEAR
ENOUGH ACROSS THE NW VALLEYS. THEREFORE...DROPPED MINS BY A FEW
DEGREES...ALTHOUGH EVEN THIS EFFORT MAY NOT BE ENOUGH.

WED...
ALTHOUGH CORE OF HIGH PRES WILL MOVE E OF THE REGION ON
WED...STILL NOTE ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE TRAPPED BETWEEN THE CUTOFFS
THAT INVERTED RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL. IN FACT...NOTE
ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE THROUGH THE COLUMN ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS THAT
EVEN AS SHOWERS/T-STORMS DEVELOP ACROSS PA AND NY...THAT THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY OUT OF EVEN THE WRN REACHES OF NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH THE DAY. THE FACT THAT THE OVERALL COLUMN IS RELATIVELY
MOISTURE STARVED ADDS CONFIDENCE TO MAINTAINING A DRY FORECAST.
OTHERWISE...ALTHOUGH MID LVL TEMPS INCREASE TO AN AVERAGE OF
12-14C...NEAR SHORE LOCATIONS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW
NORMAL DUE TO GRADIENT SUPPORTING E-SE FLOW...LIKELY ASSISTED BY
DIURNAL SEA BREEZES. AREAS IN WRN MA/CT AND SW NH ARE THE MOST
LIKELY TO SEE TEMPS SHIFT INTO THE LOW 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK
* UNCERTAINTY INCREASES THIS WEEKEND WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD OVERALL SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF
THIS WORK WEEK.  MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES ARE STARTING TO
LATCH ONTO THE IDEA OF A HIGH PRESSURE LINGERING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...SHIFTING THE PRIMARY STORM TRACK FARTHER SOUTH.  MODELS
DIVERGE THIS WEEKEND...WITH THE GFS HAVING A MORE COMPACT LONGWAVE
PATTERN THAN THE ECMWF.  THIS LEADS TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATION
OF WHERE A MID-LEVEL CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPS TOWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH
IN TURN IMPACTS THE POSITION OF A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE.

AT THIS TIME...STAYING CLOSER TO A CONSENSUS APPROACH TO MITIGATE
SOME OF THESE DETAIL DIFFERENCES. WHILE IMPORTANT OVERALL...SOME OF
THESE DETAILS HAVE LOW PREDICTABILITY THIS FAR IN ADVANCE.

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MID-LEVEL TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE
MARITIMES...WITH A HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC STRETCHING ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SEASONABLE TO JUST BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY A
FEW SHOWERS MAY BLEED INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY...BUT IT
IS EXPECTED THAT MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN IN NEW YORK
STATE.

THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THIS IS WHERE THE BULK OF THE
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IS. SATURDAY SHOULD STILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES AND DRY
WEATHER. SUNDAY AND MONDAY HAVE THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS
OR RAIN AS EITHER A COLD FRONT OR A COASTAL LOW BRING MOISTURE TO
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD START TO WARM A FEW DEGREES THROUGH
THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH THIS EVENING...
VFR...EXCEPT ISOLATED PATCHY GROUND FOG EARLY THIS MORNING AT THE
MOST PRONE AIRPORTS. SEA BREEZES LIKELY AT ALL NEAR COASTAL
TERMINALS.

TONIGHT...
MAINLY VFR. HOWEVER...MAY SEE A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD GROUND FOG
THAN MON NIGHT.

WED...
VFR. SEA BREEZES LIKELY AGAIN...ASSISTED ON E COAST BY E FLOW.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR. LOW
PROBABILITY OF PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

GENERALLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED. FLOW SHIFTS FROM W-NW
TODAY TO THE S LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...THEN TO THE E-SE BY
TOMORROW AS A STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO SPIN UP WELL TO THE SE. WIND
GUSTS MAY APPROACH 15 KT DURING THE DAY ON WED.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. RELATIVELY QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
REGION. LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY OVERNIGHT FOG LIMITING
VISIBILITIES. SEAS MAY INCREASE ON THE OUTER WATERS SATURDAY AS AN
OCEAN STORM PASSES WELL EAST OF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY



000
FXUS61 KBOX 190812
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
412 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS
WEEKEND WITH REGARDS TO THE PROXIMITY OF A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE
TO NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MIN TEMPS CONTINUE INTO THE 40S FOR MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS SW NH
AND NW MA THANKS TO MAINLY CLEAR SKIES /UPPER LVL CI IS DOING
LITTLE TO STAVE RADIATIONAL COOLING/. ELSEWHERE...BY
SUNRISE...TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE LOW 50S EXCEPT IN THE URBAN
AREAS.

IN SPITE OF THIS COOL START...A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE TO START
THE DAY AS GRADUALLY WEAKENING MID LVL RIDGE AND ATTENDANT HIGH
PRES CREST OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. THEREFORE...EXPECT
THE DRY WX TO PREVAIL WITH ONLY A FEW WISPS OF CI FROM SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WELL TO THE NW AND A FEW POP DIURNAL CU THIS AFTERNOON. BL
MIXING SHOULD EASILY TAP THE H85 LVL...WHERE TEMPS AVG 10-12C.
THEREFORE...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80. FLOW WILL
SHIFT FROM THE W-NW TO S AS THE HIGH MOVES E EXCEPT NEAR SHORE
WHERE SEA BREEZES ARE EXPECTED. THESE SEA BREEZES ARE LIKELY TO
KEEP HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID 70S CLOSE TO THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
MID LVL RIDGE CONTINUES TO DECLINE AS WEAK MID LVL CUTOFF PUSHES
TO THE E. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTERS THAT SUBSIDENCE IS
LIKELY TO PREVAIL BETWEEN THIS CUTOFF AND A SECOND IN ATLANTIC
CANADA. THEREFORE...EXCEPT FOR MAYBE SOME HIGH CLOUDS LEFTOVER
FROM CONVECTION WELL TO THE W...ANOTHER NIGHT WITH CONDITIONS
FAVORABLE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED. IN FACT...MOS IS
STILL LIKELY A LITTLE TOO WARM IF SKIES ARE ALLOWED TO CLEAR
ENOUGH ACROSS THE NW VALLEYS. THEREFORE...DROPPED MINS BY A FEW
DEGREES...ALTHOUGH EVEN THIS EFFORT MAY NOT BE ENOUGH.

WED...
ALTHOUGH CORE OF HIGH PRES WILL MOVE E OF THE REGION ON
WED...STILL NOTE ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE TRAPPED BETWEEN THE CUTOFFS
THAT INVERTED RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL. IN FACT...NOTE
ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE THROUGH THE COLUMN ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS THAT
EVEN AS SHOWERS/T-STORMS DEVELOP ACROSS PA AND NY...THAT THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY OUT OF EVEN THE WRN REACHES OF NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH THE DAY. THE FACT THAT THE OVERALL COLUMN IS RELATIVELY
MOISTURE STARVED ADDS CONFIDENCE TO MAINTAINING A DRY FORECAST.
OTHERWISE...ALTHOUGH MID LVL TEMPS INCREASE TO AN AVERAGE OF
12-14C...NEAR SHORE LOCATIONS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW
NORMAL DUE TO GRADIENT SUPPORTING E-SE FLOW...LIKELY ASSISTED BY
DIURNAL SEA BREEZES. AREAS IN WRN MA/CT AND SW NH ARE THE MOST
LIKELY TO SEE TEMPS SHIFT INTO THE LOW 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK
* UNCERTAINTY INCREASES THIS WEEKEND WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD OVERALL SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF
THIS WORK WEEK.  MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES ARE STARTING TO
LATCH ONTO THE IDEA OF A HIGH PRESSURE LINGERING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...SHIFTING THE PRIMARY STORM TRACK FARTHER SOUTH.  MODELS
DIVERGE THIS WEEKEND...WITH THE GFS HAVING A MORE COMPACT LONGWAVE
PATTERN THAN THE ECMWF.  THIS LEADS TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATION
OF WHERE A MID-LEVEL CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPS TOWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH
IN TURN IMPACTS THE POSITION OF A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE.

AT THIS TIME...STAYING CLOSER TO A CONSENSUS APPROACH TO MITIGATE
SOME OF THESE DETAIL DIFFERENCES. WHILE IMPORTANT OVERALL...SOME OF
THESE DETAILS HAVE LOW PREDICTABILITY THIS FAR IN ADVANCE.

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MID-LEVEL TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE
MARITIMES...WITH A HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC STRETCHING ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SEASONABLE TO JUST BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY A
FEW SHOWERS MAY BLEED INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY...BUT IT
IS EXPECTED THAT MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN IN NEW YORK
STATE.

THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THIS IS WHERE THE BULK OF THE
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IS. SATURDAY SHOULD STILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES AND DRY
WEATHER. SUNDAY AND MONDAY HAVE THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS
OR RAIN AS EITHER A COLD FRONT OR A COASTAL LOW BRING MOISTURE TO
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD START TO WARM A FEW DEGREES THROUGH
THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH THIS EVENING...
VFR...EXCEPT ISOLATED PATCHY GROUND FOG EARLY THIS MORNING AT THE
MOST PRONE AIRPORTS. SEA BREEZES LIKELY AT ALL NEAR COASTAL
TERMINALS.

TONIGHT...
MAINLY VFR. HOWEVER...MAY SEE A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD GROUND FOG
THAN MON NIGHT.

WED...
VFR. SEA BREEZES LIKELY AGAIN...ASSISTED ON E COAST BY E FLOW.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR. LOW
PROBABILITY OF PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

GENERALLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED. FLOW SHIFTS FROM W-NW
TODAY TO THE S LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...THEN TO THE E-SE BY
TOMORROW AS A STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO SPIN UP WELL TO THE SE. WIND
GUSTS MAY APPROACH 15 KT DURING THE DAY ON WED.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. RELATIVELY QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
REGION. LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY OVERNIGHT FOG LIMITING
VISIBILITIES. SEAS MAY INCREASE ON THE OUTER WATERS SATURDAY AS AN
OCEAN STORM PASSES WELL EAST OF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY



000
FXUS61 KBOX 190812
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
412 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS
WEEKEND WITH REGARDS TO THE PROXIMITY OF A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE
TO NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MIN TEMPS CONTINUE INTO THE 40S FOR MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS SW NH
AND NW MA THANKS TO MAINLY CLEAR SKIES /UPPER LVL CI IS DOING
LITTLE TO STAVE RADIATIONAL COOLING/. ELSEWHERE...BY
SUNRISE...TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE LOW 50S EXCEPT IN THE URBAN
AREAS.

IN SPITE OF THIS COOL START...A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE TO START
THE DAY AS GRADUALLY WEAKENING MID LVL RIDGE AND ATTENDANT HIGH
PRES CREST OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. THEREFORE...EXPECT
THE DRY WX TO PREVAIL WITH ONLY A FEW WISPS OF CI FROM SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WELL TO THE NW AND A FEW POP DIURNAL CU THIS AFTERNOON. BL
MIXING SHOULD EASILY TAP THE H85 LVL...WHERE TEMPS AVG 10-12C.
THEREFORE...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80. FLOW WILL
SHIFT FROM THE W-NW TO S AS THE HIGH MOVES E EXCEPT NEAR SHORE
WHERE SEA BREEZES ARE EXPECTED. THESE SEA BREEZES ARE LIKELY TO
KEEP HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID 70S CLOSE TO THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
MID LVL RIDGE CONTINUES TO DECLINE AS WEAK MID LVL CUTOFF PUSHES
TO THE E. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTERS THAT SUBSIDENCE IS
LIKELY TO PREVAIL BETWEEN THIS CUTOFF AND A SECOND IN ATLANTIC
CANADA. THEREFORE...EXCEPT FOR MAYBE SOME HIGH CLOUDS LEFTOVER
FROM CONVECTION WELL TO THE W...ANOTHER NIGHT WITH CONDITIONS
FAVORABLE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED. IN FACT...MOS IS
STILL LIKELY A LITTLE TOO WARM IF SKIES ARE ALLOWED TO CLEAR
ENOUGH ACROSS THE NW VALLEYS. THEREFORE...DROPPED MINS BY A FEW
DEGREES...ALTHOUGH EVEN THIS EFFORT MAY NOT BE ENOUGH.

WED...
ALTHOUGH CORE OF HIGH PRES WILL MOVE E OF THE REGION ON
WED...STILL NOTE ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE TRAPPED BETWEEN THE CUTOFFS
THAT INVERTED RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL. IN FACT...NOTE
ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE THROUGH THE COLUMN ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS THAT
EVEN AS SHOWERS/T-STORMS DEVELOP ACROSS PA AND NY...THAT THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY OUT OF EVEN THE WRN REACHES OF NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH THE DAY. THE FACT THAT THE OVERALL COLUMN IS RELATIVELY
MOISTURE STARVED ADDS CONFIDENCE TO MAINTAINING A DRY FORECAST.
OTHERWISE...ALTHOUGH MID LVL TEMPS INCREASE TO AN AVERAGE OF
12-14C...NEAR SHORE LOCATIONS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW
NORMAL DUE TO GRADIENT SUPPORTING E-SE FLOW...LIKELY ASSISTED BY
DIURNAL SEA BREEZES. AREAS IN WRN MA/CT AND SW NH ARE THE MOST
LIKELY TO SEE TEMPS SHIFT INTO THE LOW 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK
* UNCERTAINTY INCREASES THIS WEEKEND WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD OVERALL SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF
THIS WORK WEEK.  MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES ARE STARTING TO
LATCH ONTO THE IDEA OF A HIGH PRESSURE LINGERING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...SHIFTING THE PRIMARY STORM TRACK FARTHER SOUTH.  MODELS
DIVERGE THIS WEEKEND...WITH THE GFS HAVING A MORE COMPACT LONGWAVE
PATTERN THAN THE ECMWF.  THIS LEADS TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATION
OF WHERE A MID-LEVEL CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPS TOWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH
IN TURN IMPACTS THE POSITION OF A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE.

AT THIS TIME...STAYING CLOSER TO A CONSENSUS APPROACH TO MITIGATE
SOME OF THESE DETAIL DIFFERENCES. WHILE IMPORTANT OVERALL...SOME OF
THESE DETAILS HAVE LOW PREDICTABILITY THIS FAR IN ADVANCE.

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MID-LEVEL TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE
MARITIMES...WITH A HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC STRETCHING ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SEASONABLE TO JUST BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY A
FEW SHOWERS MAY BLEED INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY...BUT IT
IS EXPECTED THAT MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN IN NEW YORK
STATE.

THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THIS IS WHERE THE BULK OF THE
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IS. SATURDAY SHOULD STILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES AND DRY
WEATHER. SUNDAY AND MONDAY HAVE THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS
OR RAIN AS EITHER A COLD FRONT OR A COASTAL LOW BRING MOISTURE TO
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD START TO WARM A FEW DEGREES THROUGH
THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH THIS EVENING...
VFR...EXCEPT ISOLATED PATCHY GROUND FOG EARLY THIS MORNING AT THE
MOST PRONE AIRPORTS. SEA BREEZES LIKELY AT ALL NEAR COASTAL
TERMINALS.

TONIGHT...
MAINLY VFR. HOWEVER...MAY SEE A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD GROUND FOG
THAN MON NIGHT.

WED...
VFR. SEA BREEZES LIKELY AGAIN...ASSISTED ON E COAST BY E FLOW.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR. LOW
PROBABILITY OF PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

GENERALLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED. FLOW SHIFTS FROM W-NW
TODAY TO THE S LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...THEN TO THE E-SE BY
TOMORROW AS A STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO SPIN UP WELL TO THE SE. WIND
GUSTS MAY APPROACH 15 KT DURING THE DAY ON WED.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. RELATIVELY QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
REGION. LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY OVERNIGHT FOG LIMITING
VISIBILITIES. SEAS MAY INCREASE ON THE OUTER WATERS SATURDAY AS AN
OCEAN STORM PASSES WELL EAST OF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY



000
FXUS61 KBOX 190812
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
412 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS
WEEKEND WITH REGARDS TO THE PROXIMITY OF A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE
TO NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MIN TEMPS CONTINUE INTO THE 40S FOR MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS SW NH
AND NW MA THANKS TO MAINLY CLEAR SKIES /UPPER LVL CI IS DOING
LITTLE TO STAVE RADIATIONAL COOLING/. ELSEWHERE...BY
SUNRISE...TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE LOW 50S EXCEPT IN THE URBAN
AREAS.

IN SPITE OF THIS COOL START...A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE TO START
THE DAY AS GRADUALLY WEAKENING MID LVL RIDGE AND ATTENDANT HIGH
PRES CREST OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. THEREFORE...EXPECT
THE DRY WX TO PREVAIL WITH ONLY A FEW WISPS OF CI FROM SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WELL TO THE NW AND A FEW POP DIURNAL CU THIS AFTERNOON. BL
MIXING SHOULD EASILY TAP THE H85 LVL...WHERE TEMPS AVG 10-12C.
THEREFORE...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80. FLOW WILL
SHIFT FROM THE W-NW TO S AS THE HIGH MOVES E EXCEPT NEAR SHORE
WHERE SEA BREEZES ARE EXPECTED. THESE SEA BREEZES ARE LIKELY TO
KEEP HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID 70S CLOSE TO THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
MID LVL RIDGE CONTINUES TO DECLINE AS WEAK MID LVL CUTOFF PUSHES
TO THE E. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTERS THAT SUBSIDENCE IS
LIKELY TO PREVAIL BETWEEN THIS CUTOFF AND A SECOND IN ATLANTIC
CANADA. THEREFORE...EXCEPT FOR MAYBE SOME HIGH CLOUDS LEFTOVER
FROM CONVECTION WELL TO THE W...ANOTHER NIGHT WITH CONDITIONS
FAVORABLE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED. IN FACT...MOS IS
STILL LIKELY A LITTLE TOO WARM IF SKIES ARE ALLOWED TO CLEAR
ENOUGH ACROSS THE NW VALLEYS. THEREFORE...DROPPED MINS BY A FEW
DEGREES...ALTHOUGH EVEN THIS EFFORT MAY NOT BE ENOUGH.

WED...
ALTHOUGH CORE OF HIGH PRES WILL MOVE E OF THE REGION ON
WED...STILL NOTE ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE TRAPPED BETWEEN THE CUTOFFS
THAT INVERTED RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL. IN FACT...NOTE
ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE THROUGH THE COLUMN ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS THAT
EVEN AS SHOWERS/T-STORMS DEVELOP ACROSS PA AND NY...THAT THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY OUT OF EVEN THE WRN REACHES OF NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH THE DAY. THE FACT THAT THE OVERALL COLUMN IS RELATIVELY
MOISTURE STARVED ADDS CONFIDENCE TO MAINTAINING A DRY FORECAST.
OTHERWISE...ALTHOUGH MID LVL TEMPS INCREASE TO AN AVERAGE OF
12-14C...NEAR SHORE LOCATIONS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW
NORMAL DUE TO GRADIENT SUPPORTING E-SE FLOW...LIKELY ASSISTED BY
DIURNAL SEA BREEZES. AREAS IN WRN MA/CT AND SW NH ARE THE MOST
LIKELY TO SEE TEMPS SHIFT INTO THE LOW 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK
* UNCERTAINTY INCREASES THIS WEEKEND WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD OVERALL SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF
THIS WORK WEEK.  MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES ARE STARTING TO
LATCH ONTO THE IDEA OF A HIGH PRESSURE LINGERING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...SHIFTING THE PRIMARY STORM TRACK FARTHER SOUTH.  MODELS
DIVERGE THIS WEEKEND...WITH THE GFS HAVING A MORE COMPACT LONGWAVE
PATTERN THAN THE ECMWF.  THIS LEADS TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATION
OF WHERE A MID-LEVEL CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPS TOWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH
IN TURN IMPACTS THE POSITION OF A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE.

AT THIS TIME...STAYING CLOSER TO A CONSENSUS APPROACH TO MITIGATE
SOME OF THESE DETAIL DIFFERENCES. WHILE IMPORTANT OVERALL...SOME OF
THESE DETAILS HAVE LOW PREDICTABILITY THIS FAR IN ADVANCE.

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MID-LEVEL TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE
MARITIMES...WITH A HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC STRETCHING ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SEASONABLE TO JUST BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY A
FEW SHOWERS MAY BLEED INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY...BUT IT
IS EXPECTED THAT MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN IN NEW YORK
STATE.

THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THIS IS WHERE THE BULK OF THE
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IS. SATURDAY SHOULD STILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES AND DRY
WEATHER. SUNDAY AND MONDAY HAVE THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS
OR RAIN AS EITHER A COLD FRONT OR A COASTAL LOW BRING MOISTURE TO
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD START TO WARM A FEW DEGREES THROUGH
THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH THIS EVENING...
VFR...EXCEPT ISOLATED PATCHY GROUND FOG EARLY THIS MORNING AT THE
MOST PRONE AIRPORTS. SEA BREEZES LIKELY AT ALL NEAR COASTAL
TERMINALS.

TONIGHT...
MAINLY VFR. HOWEVER...MAY SEE A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD GROUND FOG
THAN MON NIGHT.

WED...
VFR. SEA BREEZES LIKELY AGAIN...ASSISTED ON E COAST BY E FLOW.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR. LOW
PROBABILITY OF PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

GENERALLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED. FLOW SHIFTS FROM W-NW
TODAY TO THE S LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...THEN TO THE E-SE BY
TOMORROW AS A STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO SPIN UP WELL TO THE SE. WIND
GUSTS MAY APPROACH 15 KT DURING THE DAY ON WED.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. RELATIVELY QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
REGION. LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY OVERNIGHT FOG LIMITING
VISIBILITIES. SEAS MAY INCREASE ON THE OUTER WATERS SATURDAY AS AN
OCEAN STORM PASSES WELL EAST OF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY



000
FXUS61 KOKX 190710
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
310 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE
HIGH REMAINS TO THE NORTHEAST LATE THIS WEEK AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE PASS TO THE WEST AND
SOUTH OF THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A 1015 HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER QUEBEC EARLY THIS MRNG. WITH CLR
SKIES...SOME RADIATIONAL FOG POSSIBLE THRU SUNRISE IN THE OUTLYING
AREAS.

THE HIGH WILL BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND TODAY...RESULTING IN LGT
WINDS AND SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE CWA. TEMPS CLOSE TO GMOS25 WHICH
ARE ABOUT A DEGREE BLW CLIMO.

ON THE OCEAN...A 2 FT ESE SWELL GETTING PICKED UP AT BUOY 44017.
WITH THE FCST GUIDANCE ON TRACK...WILL CONTINUE THE MODERATE RISK
FOR THIS AFTN. IT IS MARGINAL WITH WAVE HEIGHTS ONLY AROUND 2 FT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE HIGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER NEW ENGLAND THRU WED...WITH THE
BIG THREE MODELS CONTINUING TO KEEP PASSING LO PRES SE OF THE CWA
AND CONVECTIVE PCPN W OF THE CWA. AS A RESULT HAVE KEPT THE FCST
DRY. RADIATION FOG POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY IN THE PINE BARRENS AND
INTERIOR VALLEYS WED MRNG. TEMPS A BLEND OF GUIDANCE...WHICH ARE
CLOSE TO CLIMO DURING THE DAY BUT A FEW DEGREES BLW NORMAL AT NGT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THIS TIME FRAME WILL FEATURE COOLER THAN NORMAL BUT MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS.

IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS...A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS OUR AREA THURSDAY...PASSING JUST SOUTHEAST
FRIDAY. THIS TROUGH DEEPENS SLIGHTLY AND REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS
TO THE NORTH OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME.

AT THE SFC...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS TO THE WEST AS A SERIES OF
WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTERS RIDE ALONG IT. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTHEAST RIDGES SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN POPS FOR WESTERN LOCATIONS LATE AT NIGHT AND THROUGH THURSDAY.
POSSIBLE SHOWERS CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...SETTLING SOUTHEAST.
THEREAFTER...BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WOULD BE TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...CLOSER TO THE LOW AND FRONT.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THIS TIME
FRAME DUE TO AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS...COOLER TEMPS ALOFT
AND PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW. MAX TEMPS MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE 80
DEGREE MARK NEAR NYC METRO...WITH WIDESPREAD 70S ELSEWHERE. LOWS AT
NIGHT IN THE 50S AND 60S...AGAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

A SLIGHT MODERATION IN TEMPS BACK TO NORMAL IS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS HEIGHTS RISE.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND OFFSHORE ON
TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH.

LIGHT AND VRB WINDS OVERNIGHT. A NE-E FLOW TUE MORNING WILL
BECOME SE AS HIGH PRES SHIFTS E OF THE AREA. SEABREEZE INFLUENCES
LIKELY AT COASTAL TERMINALS AFT 17Z.

WIND DIRECTIONS COULD BE 20-30 DEGREES RIGHT OF FORECAST AT KJFK
AND KLGA AFT 17Z TUE.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ISOLD SHRA/TSTM POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN
TERMINALS.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...CHANCE OF SHOWERS. MVFR POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BLW SCA LVLS THRU WED.

A PERSISTENT EASTERLY WIND IS EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. WINDS INCREASE SLIGHTLY FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO
THE SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER...DO NOT
EXPECT WIND SPEEDS TO REACH SCA CRITERIA...OR 25 KTS. SEAS MAY BUILD
IN RESPONSE...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 5 FT OVER THE OCEAN WATERS PER
WAVE WATCH III.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN THRU THE WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/PW
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...JMC/PW
HYDROLOGY...JMC/PW










000
FXUS61 KOKX 190710
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
310 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE
HIGH REMAINS TO THE NORTHEAST LATE THIS WEEK AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE PASS TO THE WEST AND
SOUTH OF THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A 1015 HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER QUEBEC EARLY THIS MRNG. WITH CLR
SKIES...SOME RADIATIONAL FOG POSSIBLE THRU SUNRISE IN THE OUTLYING
AREAS.

THE HIGH WILL BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND TODAY...RESULTING IN LGT
WINDS AND SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE CWA. TEMPS CLOSE TO GMOS25 WHICH
ARE ABOUT A DEGREE BLW CLIMO.

ON THE OCEAN...A 2 FT ESE SWELL GETTING PICKED UP AT BUOY 44017.
WITH THE FCST GUIDANCE ON TRACK...WILL CONTINUE THE MODERATE RISK
FOR THIS AFTN. IT IS MARGINAL WITH WAVE HEIGHTS ONLY AROUND 2 FT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE HIGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER NEW ENGLAND THRU WED...WITH THE
BIG THREE MODELS CONTINUING TO KEEP PASSING LO PRES SE OF THE CWA
AND CONVECTIVE PCPN W OF THE CWA. AS A RESULT HAVE KEPT THE FCST
DRY. RADIATION FOG POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY IN THE PINE BARRENS AND
INTERIOR VALLEYS WED MRNG. TEMPS A BLEND OF GUIDANCE...WHICH ARE
CLOSE TO CLIMO DURING THE DAY BUT A FEW DEGREES BLW NORMAL AT NGT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THIS TIME FRAME WILL FEATURE COOLER THAN NORMAL BUT MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS.

IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS...A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS OUR AREA THURSDAY...PASSING JUST SOUTHEAST
FRIDAY. THIS TROUGH DEEPENS SLIGHTLY AND REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS
TO THE NORTH OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME.

AT THE SFC...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS TO THE WEST AS A SERIES OF
WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTERS RIDE ALONG IT. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTHEAST RIDGES SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN POPS FOR WESTERN LOCATIONS LATE AT NIGHT AND THROUGH THURSDAY.
POSSIBLE SHOWERS CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...SETTLING SOUTHEAST.
THEREAFTER...BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WOULD BE TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...CLOSER TO THE LOW AND FRONT.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THIS TIME
FRAME DUE TO AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS...COOLER TEMPS ALOFT
AND PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW. MAX TEMPS MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE 80
DEGREE MARK NEAR NYC METRO...WITH WIDESPREAD 70S ELSEWHERE. LOWS AT
NIGHT IN THE 50S AND 60S...AGAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

A SLIGHT MODERATION IN TEMPS BACK TO NORMAL IS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS HEIGHTS RISE.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND OFFSHORE ON
TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH.

LIGHT AND VRB WINDS OVERNIGHT. A NE-E FLOW TUE MORNING WILL
BECOME SE AS HIGH PRES SHIFTS E OF THE AREA. SEABREEZE INFLUENCES
LIKELY AT COASTAL TERMINALS AFT 17Z.

WIND DIRECTIONS COULD BE 20-30 DEGREES RIGHT OF FORECAST AT KJFK
AND KLGA AFT 17Z TUE.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ISOLD SHRA/TSTM POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN
TERMINALS.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...CHANCE OF SHOWERS. MVFR POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BLW SCA LVLS THRU WED.

A PERSISTENT EASTERLY WIND IS EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. WINDS INCREASE SLIGHTLY FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO
THE SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER...DO NOT
EXPECT WIND SPEEDS TO REACH SCA CRITERIA...OR 25 KTS. SEAS MAY BUILD
IN RESPONSE...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 5 FT OVER THE OCEAN WATERS PER
WAVE WATCH III.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN THRU THE WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/PW
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...JMC/PW
HYDROLOGY...JMC/PW









000
FXUS61 KALY 190551
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
151 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER DRY ON TAP AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF OUR
WEATHER. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND CLOSE TO SEASONABLE
LEVELS WITH THE HELP OF A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE. A SLOW MOVING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BRINGING
CLOUDS AND CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS TO THE WEST
OF THE HUDSON RIVER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WITH RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. DO HAVE A BIT OF CIRRUS CLOUDS STREAMING
ACROSS THE AREA. AS WE CONTINUE TO COOL RADIATIONAL FOG AND/OR
STRATUS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...SO HAVE KEPT MENTION OF
PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST.

CHILLY NIGHT WITH LOW BOTTOMING OUT AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S IN A PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH AND RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN A RATHER NICE
TRANQUIL DAY SETTING UP FOR TUESDAY. AFTER ANY PATCHY FOG BURNS
OFF...A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED. MIXING LAYER HEIGHTS
PER THE BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE NEAR H875 WHERE +14C/+15C RESIDES. DRY
ADIABATIC DECENT FROM THIS MIXING LAYER HEIGHT YIELDS 75F-80F FOR
VALLEY LOCATIONS AND LOW-MID 70S FOR THE TERRAIN.

TUESDAY NIGHT...UPSTREAM SYSTEM CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND LIKELY
ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH
OUR WESTERN ZONES OVERNIGHT. THIS IS SEEN IN THE H900-H800 RH
LAYER IN THE NCEP MODEL SUITE. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN PLACE SO WE WILL WITHHOLD THE MENTION OF PRECIP AT THIS
TIME. AT THE MINIMUM...WE WILL INCREASE LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS AS
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE A BIT MILDER WITH A BLEND OF THE CURRENT
MOS GUIDANCE.

WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY TRACK EAST.
MEANWHILE...THE SURFACE HIGH WANTS TO EXTENDS ITS INFLUENCE ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND AND INTO EASTERN NEW YORK. THIS MAY DELAY FURTHER THE
ONSET OF PRECIP. THE ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS ON THE 325K SURFACE FROM
THE GFS/NAM SUGGEST WHILE LIFT WILL BE ONGOING...THE
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS /CPD/ REMAIN RATHER HIGH
THROUGH MOST OF AT LEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. WE WILL FURTHER SLOW
DOWN THE POP/WX ARRIVAL AND KEEP MOST OF OUR NEW ENGLAND COUNTIES
DRY. IF SOME BREAKS OF SUN DO OCCUR...VALLEY TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE ABLE TO CLIMB AT OR ABOVE 80F WITH 70S ELSEWHERE.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE ISENTROPIC LIFT...LOWERING CPD/S...AND
WEAK YET PERSISTENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL FAVOR AN INCREASE IN
POPS FOR MOST OF EASTERN NEW YORK /ALONG AND WEST OF THE HUDSON
RIVER/ AND STILL ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE FOR OUR NEW ENGLAND
COUNTIES. THE LATEST ECMWF IS EVEN STRONGER WITH A DRIER SIGNAL
ALONG AND EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER AS THE SURFACE HIGH IS A BIT
STRONGER. SO WE WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS FOR PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY...ADIRONDACKS AND SCHOHARIE VALLEY. WITH THE
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A LITTLE MILDER
AS WELL WITH MAINLY 50S EXPECTED FOR THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BEGIN UNSETTLED WITH IMPROVING WEATHER BY
NEXT WEEKEND.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...LONG RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT HANDLING THE SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION DURING
THE LATE WORK WEEK/WEEKEND PERIOD...WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. IT
NOW APPEARS THAT MUCH OF THE DAY THURSDAY WILL FEATURE A CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE SYNOPTIC FORCING WITH THIS
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE WEAK WITH NOT MUCH QPF EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY
THIS SYSTEM.

AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST THURSDAY
NIGHT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST
WITH THE ENTIRE REGION NOW EXPECTED TO BE DRY FRIDAY AS A REX BLOCK
SETS UP ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL
RESULT IN BEAUTIFUL WEEKEND WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION AND FOR THE
START OF NEXT WEEK WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE MID
50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND TODAY BEFORE
SHIFTING OFFSHORE TONIGHT.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KALB/KPOU THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  KGFL
AND KPSF WILL HAVE SOME RADIATIONAL IFR/LIFR MIST/FOG AND/OR STRATUS
BTWN 06Z-12Z BEFORE BURNING OFF SHORTLY AFTER 12Z.  VFR CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN THEREAFTER WITH JUST A FEW CUMULUS AND A FEW-SCT CIRRUS
AROUND DUE TO THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM THE SFC ANTICYCLONE.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM THIS MORNING...AND BE VARIABLE IN
DIRECTION AT 6 KTS OR LESS DURING THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE BECOMING
LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH FAVORABLE
DRYING CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...DEW FORMATION AT NIGHT WILL REMAIN
HIGH ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG FORMATION. WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT WITH A SLIGHT SOUTHEAST DIRECTION
EVOLVING TUESDAY AT SPEEDS LESS THAN 10 MPH.

RH TONIGHT WILL RECOVER TO VALUES AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT. THE
MINIMUM RH VALUES TUESDAY AFTERNOON ARE FORECAST TO RANGE BETWEEN
35 AND 45 PERCENT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS THIS WEEK.
FAIR AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY EVENING WITH A
RETURN TO UNSETTLED WEATHER FROM THE MID WEEK PERIOD ONWARD AS
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. AT THIS TIME...THE GREATER QPF AMOUNTS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR
WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/BGM
NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM







000
FXUS61 KALY 190551
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
151 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER DRY ON TAP AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF OUR
WEATHER. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND CLOSE TO SEASONABLE
LEVELS WITH THE HELP OF A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE. A SLOW MOVING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BRINGING
CLOUDS AND CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS TO THE WEST
OF THE HUDSON RIVER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WITH RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. DO HAVE A BIT OF CIRRUS CLOUDS STREAMING
ACROSS THE AREA. AS WE CONTINUE TO COOL RADIATIONAL FOG AND/OR
STRATUS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...SO HAVE KEPT MENTION OF
PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST.

CHILLY NIGHT WITH LOW BOTTOMING OUT AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S IN A PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH AND RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN A RATHER NICE
TRANQUIL DAY SETTING UP FOR TUESDAY. AFTER ANY PATCHY FOG BURNS
OFF...A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED. MIXING LAYER HEIGHTS
PER THE BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE NEAR H875 WHERE +14C/+15C RESIDES. DRY
ADIABATIC DECENT FROM THIS MIXING LAYER HEIGHT YIELDS 75F-80F FOR
VALLEY LOCATIONS AND LOW-MID 70S FOR THE TERRAIN.

TUESDAY NIGHT...UPSTREAM SYSTEM CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND LIKELY
ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH
OUR WESTERN ZONES OVERNIGHT. THIS IS SEEN IN THE H900-H800 RH
LAYER IN THE NCEP MODEL SUITE. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN PLACE SO WE WILL WITHHOLD THE MENTION OF PRECIP AT THIS
TIME. AT THE MINIMUM...WE WILL INCREASE LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS AS
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE A BIT MILDER WITH A BLEND OF THE CURRENT
MOS GUIDANCE.

WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY TRACK EAST.
MEANWHILE...THE SURFACE HIGH WANTS TO EXTENDS ITS INFLUENCE ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND AND INTO EASTERN NEW YORK. THIS MAY DELAY FURTHER THE
ONSET OF PRECIP. THE ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS ON THE 325K SURFACE FROM
THE GFS/NAM SUGGEST WHILE LIFT WILL BE ONGOING...THE
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS /CPD/ REMAIN RATHER HIGH
THROUGH MOST OF AT LEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. WE WILL FURTHER SLOW
DOWN THE POP/WX ARRIVAL AND KEEP MOST OF OUR NEW ENGLAND COUNTIES
DRY. IF SOME BREAKS OF SUN DO OCCUR...VALLEY TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE ABLE TO CLIMB AT OR ABOVE 80F WITH 70S ELSEWHERE.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE ISENTROPIC LIFT...LOWERING CPD/S...AND
WEAK YET PERSISTENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL FAVOR AN INCREASE IN
POPS FOR MOST OF EASTERN NEW YORK /ALONG AND WEST OF THE HUDSON
RIVER/ AND STILL ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE FOR OUR NEW ENGLAND
COUNTIES. THE LATEST ECMWF IS EVEN STRONGER WITH A DRIER SIGNAL
ALONG AND EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER AS THE SURFACE HIGH IS A BIT
STRONGER. SO WE WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS FOR PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY...ADIRONDACKS AND SCHOHARIE VALLEY. WITH THE
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A LITTLE MILDER
AS WELL WITH MAINLY 50S EXPECTED FOR THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BEGIN UNSETTLED WITH IMPROVING WEATHER BY
NEXT WEEKEND.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...LONG RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT HANDLING THE SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION DURING
THE LATE WORK WEEK/WEEKEND PERIOD...WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. IT
NOW APPEARS THAT MUCH OF THE DAY THURSDAY WILL FEATURE A CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE SYNOPTIC FORCING WITH THIS
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE WEAK WITH NOT MUCH QPF EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY
THIS SYSTEM.

AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST THURSDAY
NIGHT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST
WITH THE ENTIRE REGION NOW EXPECTED TO BE DRY FRIDAY AS A REX BLOCK
SETS UP ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL
RESULT IN BEAUTIFUL WEEKEND WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION AND FOR THE
START OF NEXT WEEK WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE MID
50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND TODAY BEFORE
SHIFTING OFFSHORE TONIGHT.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KALB/KPOU THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  KGFL
AND KPSF WILL HAVE SOME RADIATIONAL IFR/LIFR MIST/FOG AND/OR STRATUS
BTWN 06Z-12Z BEFORE BURNING OFF SHORTLY AFTER 12Z.  VFR CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN THEREAFTER WITH JUST A FEW CUMULUS AND A FEW-SCT CIRRUS
AROUND DUE TO THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM THE SFC ANTICYCLONE.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM THIS MORNING...AND BE VARIABLE IN
DIRECTION AT 6 KTS OR LESS DURING THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE BECOMING
LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH FAVORABLE
DRYING CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...DEW FORMATION AT NIGHT WILL REMAIN
HIGH ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG FORMATION. WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT WITH A SLIGHT SOUTHEAST DIRECTION
EVOLVING TUESDAY AT SPEEDS LESS THAN 10 MPH.

RH TONIGHT WILL RECOVER TO VALUES AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT. THE
MINIMUM RH VALUES TUESDAY AFTERNOON ARE FORECAST TO RANGE BETWEEN
35 AND 45 PERCENT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS THIS WEEK.
FAIR AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY EVENING WITH A
RETURN TO UNSETTLED WEATHER FROM THE MID WEEK PERIOD ONWARD AS
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. AT THIS TIME...THE GREATER QPF AMOUNTS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR
WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/BGM
NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM








000
FXUS61 KOKX 190540
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
140 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING DOWN FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST INTO
NEW ENGLAND LATER THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SEVERAL WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE PASS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
OTHER THAN SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON LATEST SFC OBS...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS FOR
THE OVERNIGHT. FOR OUTLYING AREAS...EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDS. A SHALLOW BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL ENTER ERN CT
AND LONG ISLAND LATE AND TURN FLOW E-NE...TOO LATE TO HAVE MUCH
IMPACT ON TEMPS. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE
INTERIOR VALLEYS...TO 60-65 IN NYC METRO. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE
ACROSS OUTLYING AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS SFC TEMPS DROP CLOSE TO
THE DEW POINT TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE SHALLOW BACK DOOR FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM W-E EARLY IN
THE MORNING...TURNING LOW LEVEL FLOW EASTERLY AT FIRST...THEN SE
AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH SHIFTS SLIGHTLY E INTO NEW
ENGLAND AND ALSO LOCALLY VIA A SUPERIMPOSED SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION. HIGHS TEMPS ON TUE SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF
TODAY...EXCEPT A LITTLE COOLER IN THE UPPER 70S ACROSS LONG
ISLAND AND COASTAL CT WHERE MARITIME INFLUENCE WILL BE GREATER.

TUE NIGHT...SKIES WILL START OFF MOSTLY CLEAR...THEN BECOME PTCLDY
FROM NYC METRO WEST AS A LEAD SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF A WEAK CLOSED LOW
IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. A WEAK SFC LOW
PASSING OFF THE MID ATLC COAST SHOULD HAVE NO MORE EFFECT THAN TO
TURN WINDS BETWEEN IT AND THE HIGH TO THE NORTH MORE EASTERLY.
LOWS WILL BE MILDER THAN THOSE EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT...WITH 50S
INLAND AND MAINLY LOWER/MID 60S FOR NYC METRO AND THE COAST.

THERE WILL BE A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK AT THE OCEAN BEACHES ON
TUE...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHEAST AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA INTO
THE NORTHEAST AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM. UNDER THIS RIDGE...A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OVER THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THEN BECOMES BLOCKED
THIS WEEKEND AS RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA AND THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC TRAPPING THE UPPER LOW BETWEEN THESE TWO RIDGES. AT
THE SURFACE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND REMAIN THE DOMINANT
SURFACE FEATURE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED
BLOCKING PATTERN.

HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY AS NO REAL SUPPORT FOR
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. STILL HAVE CHANCE POPS ON THURSDAY WITH THE
UPPER LOW MOVING OVER THE REGION. POPS THEN LOWER TO SLIGHT CHANCE
FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LOW LINGERS JUST OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...WITH
SURFACE HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH...MUCH OF THE DAY SHOULD
REMAIN DRY. HAVE CONTINUED WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND AS
BEST SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS APPEARS TO REMAIN OFFSHORE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR JUST BELOW NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY AND FALL
TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. PERIODS OF CLOUD COVER AND AN EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE
SURFACE WINDS WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM RISING ABOVE 80 DEGREES
DURING THIS PERIOD. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE
60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND OFFSHORE ON
TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH.

LIGHT AND VRB WINDS OVERNIGHT. A NE-E FLOW TUE MORNING WILL
BECOME SE AS HIGH PRES SHIFTS E OF THE AREA. SEABREEZE INFLUENCES
LIKELY AT COASTAL TERMINALS AFT 17Z.

WIND DIRECTIONS COULD BE 20-30 DEGREES RIGHT OF FORECAST AT KJFK
AND KLGA AFT 17Z TUE.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ISOLD SHRA/TSTM POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN
TERMINALS.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...CHANCE OF SHOWERS. MVFR POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
QUIET CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH FRI MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN
TO APPROACH SCA LEVELS LATE FRI...AND CONTINUE INTO SAT AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO INCREASE BETWEEN A DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW OVER THE ATLANTIC AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTH. WINDS MAY APPROACH 25 KT AND OCEAN SEAS MAY RANGE BETWEEN
5-7 FT BY LATE SAT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/MPS
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...GOODMAN/MET
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN






000
FXUS61 KBOX 190538
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
138 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
REMAINING DRY AND SEASONABLE INTO WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY A COOLER
PATTERN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS /MAINLY OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND/. UNCERTAINTY
IN THE FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND WITH REGARDS TO THE PROXIMITY OF
A COASTAL LOW OFF OF NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
130 AM UPDATE...

CONTINUED RADIATIONAL COOLING ESPECIALLY IN THE NW VALLEY
LOCATIONS. NOTING DWPTS FALLING BACK INTO THE 40S AND TEMPS
ALREADY IN THE LOW 50S AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS. THEREFORE...TEMPS
LOOK TO BE ON TRACK AT THIS TIME. ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT ARE
SOME SCT HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE NRN FRINGES OF THE BOX
CWA. MAY HAVE TO WATCH THESE AS THEY MAY LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING
A BIT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...

WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION WITH DRY AIR
AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS. WHILE SOME SCATTERED MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE
OVER SW NEW ENGLAND...OVERALL EXPECTING A PRETTY CHILLY NIGHT WITH
LOWS INTO THE LOW-50S. A FEW SPOTS WHICH CLIMATOLOGICALLY RADIATE
WELL /I.E. SHELTERED VALLEYS WITHIN THE CT-RIVER VALLEY...SW
MA...AND MARTHAS VINEYARD/ COULD SEE LOWS AROUND THE UPPER-40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TUESDAY...

GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT OF H5 RIDGE ENHANCEMENT W OF THE REGION AHEAD
OF A SYNOPTIC DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT
IN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN CONTROL WITH CONTINUED DRY AIR
AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...AS H85 TEMPERATURES WARM A COUPLE OF DEGREES
TO +10-12C.

WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD ALLOW FOR SEA-
BREEZES ALONG THE SHORES. SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS ANTICIPATED WITH
DAYTIME HEATING. WITH MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WARMING...ANTICIPATE
MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS AROUND THE UPPER-70S.

TUESDAY NIGHT...

WILL HOLD THE MID-ATLANTIC LOW PRESSURE DISTURBANCE S OF NEW
ENGLAND...PREVAILING WITH A W TO E MOTION THROUGH THE QUASI-ZONAL
FLOW. THIS REMOVES THE 18.09Z SREF FROM CONSIDERATION. FIGURE WITH
THE MULTITUDE OF SYSTEMS SURROUNDING THE NE-CONUS SHOULD KEEP THE
REGION BENEATH CONTINUED SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR.

ANTICIPATING A QUIET EVENING. PERHAPS SOME MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS
FILTER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE REGION OF DISTURBED WEATHER
S. OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS AND LIKELY ANOTHER OVERNIGHT PERIOD OF
CHILLY TEMPERATURES. LOWS AROUND THE MID-50S WITH A FEW LOCATIONS
THAT RADIATE OUT EFFECTIVELY FALLING INTO THE UPPER-40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK
* UNCERTAINTY INCREASES OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK ON THE
GENERAL PATTERN AS WELL AS THE SENSIBLE WEATHER. FOR THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...MODELS DIVERGE AS THE GFS TAKES ON A
MORE BLOCKY UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AND THE ECMWF REMAINS A BIT MORE
PROGRESSIVE. THIS RESULTS IN SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER THE
WEEKEND. BOTH MODELS HAVE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WHICH RESULTS IN THE COOLER...LESS
SEASONABLE WEATHER. THEN FOR THE WEEKEND...THE ECMWF MOVES THE
TROUGH OFFSHORE ALLOWING FOR A MORE PROGRESSIVE ZONAL FLOW WHILE
THE GFS KEEPS THE TROUGH ANCHORED OVER THE NORTHEAST. THIS ALSO
CREATES CHANGES IN THE SURFACE PATTERN. HIGH PRESSURE IN QUEBEC
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK SINKS SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
WEEKEND ON THE ECMWF PUSHING A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
MOVING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WELL OFFSHORE. THE HIGH IS
EVENTUALLY PUSHED EASTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK ALLOWING A COLD FRONT
TO PUSH THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE GFS MOVES THE HIGH
PRESSURE EASTWARD THIS WEEKEND INSTEAD WHICH ALLOWS LOW PRESSURE
TO MOVE UP THE COAST JUST OUTSIDE OF THE 40/70 BENCHMARK...
BRINGING RAIN TO MUCH OF THE REGION SUNDAY. GIVEN THIS IS AT THE
END OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST...WILL STICK WITH A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AND SEE WHERE FUTURE RUNS OF THE MODELS
TAKE US.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STICKS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN QUEBEC SINKING INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. SEASONABLE TO JUST BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY THAT A
FEW SHOWERS MAY BLEED INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY...BUT
IT IS EXPECTED THAT MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN IN NEW
YORK STATE.

THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS STATED ABOVE THIS IS WHERE
THE BULK OF THE UNCERTAINTY IS. SATURDAY SHOULD STILL BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES
AND DRY WEATHER. SUNDAY AND MONDAY HAVE THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF
SHOWERS OR RAIN AS EITHER A COLD FRONT OR A COASTAL LOW BRING
MOISTURE TO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD START TO WARM A FEW
DEGREES THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH THIS EVENING...
VFR...EXCEPT ISOLATED PATCHY GROUND FOG EARLY THIS MORNING AT THE
MOST PRONE AIRPORTS. SEA BREEZES LIKELY AT ALL NEAR COASTAL
TERMINALS.

TONIGHT...
MAINLY VFR. HOWEVER...MAY SEE A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD GROUND FOG
THAN MON NIGHT.

WED...
VFR. SEA BREEZES LIKELY AGAIN...ASSISTED ON E COAST BY E FLOW.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR. LOW
PROBABILITY OF PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

AN OVERALL THEME OF HIGH PRESSURE AND QUIET BOATING WEATHER.

S/SW-FLOW WILL DIMINISH INTO EVENING AS WINDS TURN OUT OF THE N.
SEA-BREEZES WASH-OUT ALONG THE NEAR-SHORES. WILL SEE THE RETURN
OF SE-WINDS TUESDAY TURNING N/NE INTO THE EVENING PERIOD...
STRENGTHENING 10-15 KTS IN RESPONSE TO A STORM SWEEPING OUT TO
SEA OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION.
LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY OVERNIGHT FOG LIMITING VISIBILITIES.
SEAS MAY INCREASE ON THE OUTER WATERS SATURDAY AS AN OCEAN STORM
PASSES WELL EAST OF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...DOODY/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...DOODY/RLG
MARINE...RLG/SIPPRELL




000
FXUS61 KBOX 190538
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
138 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
REMAINING DRY AND SEASONABLE INTO WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY A COOLER
PATTERN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS /MAINLY OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND/. UNCERTAINTY
IN THE FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND WITH REGARDS TO THE PROXIMITY OF
A COASTAL LOW OFF OF NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
130 AM UPDATE...

CONTINUED RADIATIONAL COOLING ESPECIALLY IN THE NW VALLEY
LOCATIONS. NOTING DWPTS FALLING BACK INTO THE 40S AND TEMPS
ALREADY IN THE LOW 50S AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS. THEREFORE...TEMPS
LOOK TO BE ON TRACK AT THIS TIME. ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT ARE
SOME SCT HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE NRN FRINGES OF THE BOX
CWA. MAY HAVE TO WATCH THESE AS THEY MAY LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING
A BIT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...

WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION WITH DRY AIR
AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS. WHILE SOME SCATTERED MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE
OVER SW NEW ENGLAND...OVERALL EXPECTING A PRETTY CHILLY NIGHT WITH
LOWS INTO THE LOW-50S. A FEW SPOTS WHICH CLIMATOLOGICALLY RADIATE
WELL /I.E. SHELTERED VALLEYS WITHIN THE CT-RIVER VALLEY...SW
MA...AND MARTHAS VINEYARD/ COULD SEE LOWS AROUND THE UPPER-40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TUESDAY...

GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT OF H5 RIDGE ENHANCEMENT W OF THE REGION AHEAD
OF A SYNOPTIC DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT
IN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN CONTROL WITH CONTINUED DRY AIR
AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...AS H85 TEMPERATURES WARM A COUPLE OF DEGREES
TO +10-12C.

WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD ALLOW FOR SEA-
BREEZES ALONG THE SHORES. SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS ANTICIPATED WITH
DAYTIME HEATING. WITH MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WARMING...ANTICIPATE
MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS AROUND THE UPPER-70S.

TUESDAY NIGHT...

WILL HOLD THE MID-ATLANTIC LOW PRESSURE DISTURBANCE S OF NEW
ENGLAND...PREVAILING WITH A W TO E MOTION THROUGH THE QUASI-ZONAL
FLOW. THIS REMOVES THE 18.09Z SREF FROM CONSIDERATION. FIGURE WITH
THE MULTITUDE OF SYSTEMS SURROUNDING THE NE-CONUS SHOULD KEEP THE
REGION BENEATH CONTINUED SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR.

ANTICIPATING A QUIET EVENING. PERHAPS SOME MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS
FILTER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE REGION OF DISTURBED WEATHER
S. OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS AND LIKELY ANOTHER OVERNIGHT PERIOD OF
CHILLY TEMPERATURES. LOWS AROUND THE MID-50S WITH A FEW LOCATIONS
THAT RADIATE OUT EFFECTIVELY FALLING INTO THE UPPER-40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK
* UNCERTAINTY INCREASES OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK ON THE
GENERAL PATTERN AS WELL AS THE SENSIBLE WEATHER. FOR THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...MODELS DIVERGE AS THE GFS TAKES ON A
MORE BLOCKY UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AND THE ECMWF REMAINS A BIT MORE
PROGRESSIVE. THIS RESULTS IN SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER THE
WEEKEND. BOTH MODELS HAVE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WHICH RESULTS IN THE COOLER...LESS
SEASONABLE WEATHER. THEN FOR THE WEEKEND...THE ECMWF MOVES THE
TROUGH OFFSHORE ALLOWING FOR A MORE PROGRESSIVE ZONAL FLOW WHILE
THE GFS KEEPS THE TROUGH ANCHORED OVER THE NORTHEAST. THIS ALSO
CREATES CHANGES IN THE SURFACE PATTERN. HIGH PRESSURE IN QUEBEC
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK SINKS SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
WEEKEND ON THE ECMWF PUSHING A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
MOVING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WELL OFFSHORE. THE HIGH IS
EVENTUALLY PUSHED EASTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK ALLOWING A COLD FRONT
TO PUSH THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE GFS MOVES THE HIGH
PRESSURE EASTWARD THIS WEEKEND INSTEAD WHICH ALLOWS LOW PRESSURE
TO MOVE UP THE COAST JUST OUTSIDE OF THE 40/70 BENCHMARK...
BRINGING RAIN TO MUCH OF THE REGION SUNDAY. GIVEN THIS IS AT THE
END OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST...WILL STICK WITH A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AND SEE WHERE FUTURE RUNS OF THE MODELS
TAKE US.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STICKS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN QUEBEC SINKING INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. SEASONABLE TO JUST BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY THAT A
FEW SHOWERS MAY BLEED INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY...BUT
IT IS EXPECTED THAT MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN IN NEW
YORK STATE.

THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS STATED ABOVE THIS IS WHERE
THE BULK OF THE UNCERTAINTY IS. SATURDAY SHOULD STILL BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES
AND DRY WEATHER. SUNDAY AND MONDAY HAVE THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF
SHOWERS OR RAIN AS EITHER A COLD FRONT OR A COASTAL LOW BRING
MOISTURE TO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD START TO WARM A FEW
DEGREES THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH THIS EVENING...
VFR...EXCEPT ISOLATED PATCHY GROUND FOG EARLY THIS MORNING AT THE
MOST PRONE AIRPORTS. SEA BREEZES LIKELY AT ALL NEAR COASTAL
TERMINALS.

TONIGHT...
MAINLY VFR. HOWEVER...MAY SEE A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD GROUND FOG
THAN MON NIGHT.

WED...
VFR. SEA BREEZES LIKELY AGAIN...ASSISTED ON E COAST BY E FLOW.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR. LOW
PROBABILITY OF PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

AN OVERALL THEME OF HIGH PRESSURE AND QUIET BOATING WEATHER.

S/SW-FLOW WILL DIMINISH INTO EVENING AS WINDS TURN OUT OF THE N.
SEA-BREEZES WASH-OUT ALONG THE NEAR-SHORES. WILL SEE THE RETURN
OF SE-WINDS TUESDAY TURNING N/NE INTO THE EVENING PERIOD...
STRENGTHENING 10-15 KTS IN RESPONSE TO A STORM SWEEPING OUT TO
SEA OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION.
LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY OVERNIGHT FOG LIMITING VISIBILITIES.
SEAS MAY INCREASE ON THE OUTER WATERS SATURDAY AS AN OCEAN STORM
PASSES WELL EAST OF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...DOODY/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...DOODY/RLG
MARINE...RLG/SIPPRELL



000
FXUS61 KALY 190222
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1018 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER.  TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WILL BE COOL ACROSS THE REGION.  TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND CLOSE TO
SEASONABLE LEVELS FOR TUESDAY UNDER A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE.  A SLOW
MOVING STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD WITH CLOUDS
AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...MAINLY WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT...LITTLE IF ANYTHING TO CHANGE IN THIS UPDATE
OTHER THAN RE-TOOLING OF THE HOURLY GRIDS. IT IS A MAINLY CLEAR COOL
EVENING WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH THE 60S...AND IN MANY
CASES...THE 50S. THE WIND HAS GONE LIGHT OR CALM.


THE MAIN CHALLENGE OVERNIGHT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG. THE
RECENT DEWPOINT DROP HAS STEADY OFF WHICH WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
NARROWING DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OVERNIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF A
MAINLY CLEAR SKY...LIGHT WINDS /AND A LONGER NOCTURNAL PERIOD/
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN PATCHY FOG. THIS WILL WELL HANDLED IN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST SO LITTLE CHANGES NEEDED. AS FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS...TEMPERATURES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DACKS MAY DIP BACK TO A
FEW UPPER 30S...WITH MOST LOCATIONS INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S INTO
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH AND RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN A RATHER NICE
TRANQUIL DAY SETTING UP FOR TUESDAY. AFTER ANY PATCHY FOG BURNS
OFF...A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED. MIXING LAYER HEIGHTS
PER THE BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE NEAR H875 WHERE +14C/+15C RESIDES. DRY
ADIABATIC DECENT FROM THIS MIXING LAYER HEIGHT YIELDS 75F-80F FOR
VALLEY LOCATIONS AND LOW-MID 70S FOR THE TERRAIN.

TUESDAY NIGHT...UPSTREAM SYSTEM CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND LIKELY
ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH
OUR WESTERN ZONES OVERNIGHT. THIS IS SEEN IN THE H900-H800 RH
LAYER IN THE NCEP MODEL SUITE. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN PLACE SO WE WILL WITHHOLD THE MENTION OF PRECIP AT THIS
TIME. AT THE MINIMUM...WE WILL INCREASE LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS AS
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE A BIT MILDER WITH A BLEND OF THE CURRENT
MOS GUIDANCE.

WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY TRACK EAST.
MEANWHILE...THE SURFACE HIGH WANTS TO EXTENDS ITS INFLUENCE ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND AND INTO EASTERN NEW YORK. THIS MAY DELAY FURTHER THE
ONSET OF PRECIP. THE ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS ON THE 325K SURFACE FROM
THE GFS/NAM SUGGEST WHILE LIFT WILL BE ONGOING...THE
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS /CPD/ REMAIN RATHER HIGH
THROUGH MOST OF AT LEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. WE WILL FURTHER SLOW
DOWN THE POP/WX ARRIVAL AND KEEP MOST OF OUR NEW ENGLAND COUNTIES
DRY. IF SOME BREAKS OF SUN DO OCCUR...VALLEY TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE ABLE TO CLIMB AT OR ABOVE 80F WITH 70S ELSEWHERE.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE ISENTROPIC LIFT...LOWERING CPD/S...AND
WEAK YET PERSISTENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL FAVOR AN INCREASE IN
POPS FOR MOST OF EASTERN NEW YORK /ALONG AND WEST OF THE HUDSON
RIVER/ AND STILL ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE FOR OUR NEW ENGLAND
COUNTIES. THE LATEST ECMWF IS EVEN STRONGER WITH A DRIER SIGNAL
ALONG AND EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER AS THE SURFACE HIGH IS A BIT
STRONGER. SO WE WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS FOR PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY...ADIRONDACKS AND SCHOHARIE VALLEY. WITH THE
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A LITTLE MILDER
AS WELL WITH MAINLY 50S EXPECTED FOR THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BEGIN UNSETTLED WITH IMPROVING WEATHER BY
NEXT WEEKEND.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...LONG RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT HANDLING THE SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION DURING
THE LATE WORK WEEK/WEEKEND PERIOD...WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. IT
NOW APPEARS THAT MUCH OF THE DAY THURSDAY WILL FEATURE A CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE SYNOPTIC FORCING WITH THIS
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE WEAK WITH NOT MUCH QPF EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY
THIS SYSTEM.

AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST THURSDAY
NIGHT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST
WITH THE ENTIRE REGION NOW EXPECTED TO BE DRY FRIDAY AS A REX BLOCK
SETS UP ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL
RESULT IN BEAUTIFUL WEEKEND WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION AND FOR THE
START OF NEXT WEEK WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE MID
50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS.

HOWEVER...AS WE REACH AROUND 06Z...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO FALL TO THE
PROJECTED CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S AT KPSF AND KGFL.
WITH VIRTUALLY NO WIND...AND FEW IF ANY SENSIBLE CLOUDS...IT LOOKS
AS IF RADIATIONAL FOG WILL FORM AT BOTH THESE SPOTS. WE ARE
FORECASTING IFR MIST (2SM BR) AT BOTH SITES...BEGINNING AT 06Z/KGFL
AND 08Z/KPSF.

AT KPOU AND KALB IT LOOKS AS OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL STAY AT OR JUST
ABOVE THE CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES. IN THESE SITES WE JUST INCLUDED
VCFG FOR NOW...TO EXPRESS A LOW PROBABILITY THAT MVFR OR IFR MIST
COULD HAPPEN (LESS THAN 25 PERCENT CHANCE)...AT THE THOSE TAF SITES.

ANY AND ALL FOG WILL BE GONE BY 12Z...LEAVING US WITH A VFR DAY WITH
UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY...A FEW-SCT CU CLOUDS WITH BASES WELL ABOVE
THE VFR/MVFR THRESHOLD. (4-6 KFT). THE WIND WILL BE VARIABLE TO N-NE
GENERALLY AROUND 5KTS.


OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SLIGHT CHC
TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE SHRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE SHRA...SLIGHT CHC
TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY-SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH FAVORABLE
DRYING CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...DEW FORMATION AT NIGHT WILL REMAIN
HIGH ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG FORMATION. WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT WITH A SLIGHT SOUTHEAST DIRECTION
EVOLVING TUESDAY AT SPEEDS LESS THAN 10 MPH.

RH TONIGHT WILL RECOVER TO VALUES AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT. THE
MINIMUM RH VALUES TUESDAY AFTERNOON ARE FORECAST TO RANGE BETWEEN
35 AND 45 PERCENT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS THIS WEEK.
FAIR AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY EVENING WITH A
RETURN TO UNSETTLED WEATHER FROM THE MID WEEK PERIOD ONWARD AS
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. AT THIS TIME...THE GREATER QPF AMOUNTS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR
WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM










000
FXUS61 KALY 190222
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1018 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER.  TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WILL BE COOL ACROSS THE REGION.  TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND CLOSE TO
SEASONABLE LEVELS FOR TUESDAY UNDER A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE.  A SLOW
MOVING STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD WITH CLOUDS
AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...MAINLY WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT...LITTLE IF ANYTHING TO CHANGE IN THIS UPDATE
OTHER THAN RE-TOOLING OF THE HOURLY GRIDS. IT IS A MAINLY CLEAR COOL
EVENING WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH THE 60S...AND IN MANY
CASES...THE 50S. THE WIND HAS GONE LIGHT OR CALM.


THE MAIN CHALLENGE OVERNIGHT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG. THE
RECENT DEWPOINT DROP HAS STEADY OFF WHICH WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
NARROWING DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OVERNIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF A
MAINLY CLEAR SKY...LIGHT WINDS /AND A LONGER NOCTURNAL PERIOD/
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN PATCHY FOG. THIS WILL WELL HANDLED IN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST SO LITTLE CHANGES NEEDED. AS FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS...TEMPERATURES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DACKS MAY DIP BACK TO A
FEW UPPER 30S...WITH MOST LOCATIONS INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S INTO
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH AND RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN A RATHER NICE
TRANQUIL DAY SETTING UP FOR TUESDAY. AFTER ANY PATCHY FOG BURNS
OFF...A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED. MIXING LAYER HEIGHTS
PER THE BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE NEAR H875 WHERE +14C/+15C RESIDES. DRY
ADIABATIC DECENT FROM THIS MIXING LAYER HEIGHT YIELDS 75F-80F FOR
VALLEY LOCATIONS AND LOW-MID 70S FOR THE TERRAIN.

TUESDAY NIGHT...UPSTREAM SYSTEM CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND LIKELY
ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH
OUR WESTERN ZONES OVERNIGHT. THIS IS SEEN IN THE H900-H800 RH
LAYER IN THE NCEP MODEL SUITE. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN PLACE SO WE WILL WITHHOLD THE MENTION OF PRECIP AT THIS
TIME. AT THE MINIMUM...WE WILL INCREASE LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS AS
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE A BIT MILDER WITH A BLEND OF THE CURRENT
MOS GUIDANCE.

WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY TRACK EAST.
MEANWHILE...THE SURFACE HIGH WANTS TO EXTENDS ITS INFLUENCE ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND AND INTO EASTERN NEW YORK. THIS MAY DELAY FURTHER THE
ONSET OF PRECIP. THE ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS ON THE 325K SURFACE FROM
THE GFS/NAM SUGGEST WHILE LIFT WILL BE ONGOING...THE
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS /CPD/ REMAIN RATHER HIGH
THROUGH MOST OF AT LEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. WE WILL FURTHER SLOW
DOWN THE POP/WX ARRIVAL AND KEEP MOST OF OUR NEW ENGLAND COUNTIES
DRY. IF SOME BREAKS OF SUN DO OCCUR...VALLEY TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE ABLE TO CLIMB AT OR ABOVE 80F WITH 70S ELSEWHERE.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE ISENTROPIC LIFT...LOWERING CPD/S...AND
WEAK YET PERSISTENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL FAVOR AN INCREASE IN
POPS FOR MOST OF EASTERN NEW YORK /ALONG AND WEST OF THE HUDSON
RIVER/ AND STILL ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE FOR OUR NEW ENGLAND
COUNTIES. THE LATEST ECMWF IS EVEN STRONGER WITH A DRIER SIGNAL
ALONG AND EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER AS THE SURFACE HIGH IS A BIT
STRONGER. SO WE WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS FOR PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY...ADIRONDACKS AND SCHOHARIE VALLEY. WITH THE
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A LITTLE MILDER
AS WELL WITH MAINLY 50S EXPECTED FOR THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BEGIN UNSETTLED WITH IMPROVING WEATHER BY
NEXT WEEKEND.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...LONG RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT HANDLING THE SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION DURING
THE LATE WORK WEEK/WEEKEND PERIOD...WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. IT
NOW APPEARS THAT MUCH OF THE DAY THURSDAY WILL FEATURE A CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE SYNOPTIC FORCING WITH THIS
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE WEAK WITH NOT MUCH QPF EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY
THIS SYSTEM.

AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST THURSDAY
NIGHT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST
WITH THE ENTIRE REGION NOW EXPECTED TO BE DRY FRIDAY AS A REX BLOCK
SETS UP ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL
RESULT IN BEAUTIFUL WEEKEND WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION AND FOR THE
START OF NEXT WEEK WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE MID
50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS.

HOWEVER...AS WE REACH AROUND 06Z...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO FALL TO THE
PROJECTED CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S AT KPSF AND KGFL.
WITH VIRTUALLY NO WIND...AND FEW IF ANY SENSIBLE CLOUDS...IT LOOKS
AS IF RADIATIONAL FOG WILL FORM AT BOTH THESE SPOTS. WE ARE
FORECASTING IFR MIST (2SM BR) AT BOTH SITES...BEGINNING AT 06Z/KGFL
AND 08Z/KPSF.

AT KPOU AND KALB IT LOOKS AS OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL STAY AT OR JUST
ABOVE THE CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES. IN THESE SITES WE JUST INCLUDED
VCFG FOR NOW...TO EXPRESS A LOW PROBABILITY THAT MVFR OR IFR MIST
COULD HAPPEN (LESS THAN 25 PERCENT CHANCE)...AT THE THOSE TAF SITES.

ANY AND ALL FOG WILL BE GONE BY 12Z...LEAVING US WITH A VFR DAY WITH
UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY...A FEW-SCT CU CLOUDS WITH BASES WELL ABOVE
THE VFR/MVFR THRESHOLD. (4-6 KFT). THE WIND WILL BE VARIABLE TO N-NE
GENERALLY AROUND 5KTS.


OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SLIGHT CHC
TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE SHRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE SHRA...SLIGHT CHC
TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY-SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH FAVORABLE
DRYING CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...DEW FORMATION AT NIGHT WILL REMAIN
HIGH ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG FORMATION. WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT WITH A SLIGHT SOUTHEAST DIRECTION
EVOLVING TUESDAY AT SPEEDS LESS THAN 10 MPH.

RH TONIGHT WILL RECOVER TO VALUES AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT. THE
MINIMUM RH VALUES TUESDAY AFTERNOON ARE FORECAST TO RANGE BETWEEN
35 AND 45 PERCENT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS THIS WEEK.
FAIR AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY EVENING WITH A
RETURN TO UNSETTLED WEATHER FROM THE MID WEEK PERIOD ONWARD AS
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. AT THIS TIME...THE GREATER QPF AMOUNTS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR
WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM










000
FXUS61 KALY 190222
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1018 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER.  TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WILL BE COOL ACROSS THE REGION.  TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND CLOSE TO
SEASONABLE LEVELS FOR TUESDAY UNDER A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE.  A SLOW
MOVING STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD WITH CLOUDS
AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...MAINLY WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT...LITTLE IF ANYTHING TO CHANGE IN THIS UPDATE
OTHER THAN RE-TOOLING OF THE HOURLY GRIDS. IT IS A MAINLY CLEAR COOL
EVENING WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH THE 60S...AND IN MANY
CASES...THE 50S. THE WIND HAS GONE LIGHT OR CALM.


THE MAIN CHALLENGE OVERNIGHT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG. THE
RECENT DEWPOINT DROP HAS STEADY OFF WHICH WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
NARROWING DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OVERNIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF A
MAINLY CLEAR SKY...LIGHT WINDS /AND A LONGER NOCTURNAL PERIOD/
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN PATCHY FOG. THIS WILL WELL HANDLED IN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST SO LITTLE CHANGES NEEDED. AS FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS...TEMPERATURES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DACKS MAY DIP BACK TO A
FEW UPPER 30S...WITH MOST LOCATIONS INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S INTO
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH AND RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN A RATHER NICE
TRANQUIL DAY SETTING UP FOR TUESDAY. AFTER ANY PATCHY FOG BURNS
OFF...A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED. MIXING LAYER HEIGHTS
PER THE BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE NEAR H875 WHERE +14C/+15C RESIDES. DRY
ADIABATIC DECENT FROM THIS MIXING LAYER HEIGHT YIELDS 75F-80F FOR
VALLEY LOCATIONS AND LOW-MID 70S FOR THE TERRAIN.

TUESDAY NIGHT...UPSTREAM SYSTEM CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND LIKELY
ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH
OUR WESTERN ZONES OVERNIGHT. THIS IS SEEN IN THE H900-H800 RH
LAYER IN THE NCEP MODEL SUITE. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN PLACE SO WE WILL WITHHOLD THE MENTION OF PRECIP AT THIS
TIME. AT THE MINIMUM...WE WILL INCREASE LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS AS
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE A BIT MILDER WITH A BLEND OF THE CURRENT
MOS GUIDANCE.

WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY TRACK EAST.
MEANWHILE...THE SURFACE HIGH WANTS TO EXTENDS ITS INFLUENCE ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND AND INTO EASTERN NEW YORK. THIS MAY DELAY FURTHER THE
ONSET OF PRECIP. THE ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS ON THE 325K SURFACE FROM
THE GFS/NAM SUGGEST WHILE LIFT WILL BE ONGOING...THE
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS /CPD/ REMAIN RATHER HIGH
THROUGH MOST OF AT LEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. WE WILL FURTHER SLOW
DOWN THE POP/WX ARRIVAL AND KEEP MOST OF OUR NEW ENGLAND COUNTIES
DRY. IF SOME BREAKS OF SUN DO OCCUR...VALLEY TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE ABLE TO CLIMB AT OR ABOVE 80F WITH 70S ELSEWHERE.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE ISENTROPIC LIFT...LOWERING CPD/S...AND
WEAK YET PERSISTENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL FAVOR AN INCREASE IN
POPS FOR MOST OF EASTERN NEW YORK /ALONG AND WEST OF THE HUDSON
RIVER/ AND STILL ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE FOR OUR NEW ENGLAND
COUNTIES. THE LATEST ECMWF IS EVEN STRONGER WITH A DRIER SIGNAL
ALONG AND EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER AS THE SURFACE HIGH IS A BIT
STRONGER. SO WE WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS FOR PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY...ADIRONDACKS AND SCHOHARIE VALLEY. WITH THE
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A LITTLE MILDER
AS WELL WITH MAINLY 50S EXPECTED FOR THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BEGIN UNSETTLED WITH IMPROVING WEATHER BY
NEXT WEEKEND.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...LONG RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT HANDLING THE SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION DURING
THE LATE WORK WEEK/WEEKEND PERIOD...WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. IT
NOW APPEARS THAT MUCH OF THE DAY THURSDAY WILL FEATURE A CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE SYNOPTIC FORCING WITH THIS
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE WEAK WITH NOT MUCH QPF EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY
THIS SYSTEM.

AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST THURSDAY
NIGHT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST
WITH THE ENTIRE REGION NOW EXPECTED TO BE DRY FRIDAY AS A REX BLOCK
SETS UP ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL
RESULT IN BEAUTIFUL WEEKEND WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION AND FOR THE
START OF NEXT WEEK WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE MID
50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS.

HOWEVER...AS WE REACH AROUND 06Z...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO FALL TO THE
PROJECTED CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S AT KPSF AND KGFL.
WITH VIRTUALLY NO WIND...AND FEW IF ANY SENSIBLE CLOUDS...IT LOOKS
AS IF RADIATIONAL FOG WILL FORM AT BOTH THESE SPOTS. WE ARE
FORECASTING IFR MIST (2SM BR) AT BOTH SITES...BEGINNING AT 06Z/KGFL
AND 08Z/KPSF.

AT KPOU AND KALB IT LOOKS AS OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL STAY AT OR JUST
ABOVE THE CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES. IN THESE SITES WE JUST INCLUDED
VCFG FOR NOW...TO EXPRESS A LOW PROBABILITY THAT MVFR OR IFR MIST
COULD HAPPEN (LESS THAN 25 PERCENT CHANCE)...AT THE THOSE TAF SITES.

ANY AND ALL FOG WILL BE GONE BY 12Z...LEAVING US WITH A VFR DAY WITH
UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY...A FEW-SCT CU CLOUDS WITH BASES WELL ABOVE
THE VFR/MVFR THRESHOLD. (4-6 KFT). THE WIND WILL BE VARIABLE TO N-NE
GENERALLY AROUND 5KTS.


OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SLIGHT CHC
TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE SHRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE SHRA...SLIGHT CHC
TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY-SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH FAVORABLE
DRYING CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...DEW FORMATION AT NIGHT WILL REMAIN
HIGH ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG FORMATION. WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT WITH A SLIGHT SOUTHEAST DIRECTION
EVOLVING TUESDAY AT SPEEDS LESS THAN 10 MPH.

RH TONIGHT WILL RECOVER TO VALUES AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT. THE
MINIMUM RH VALUES TUESDAY AFTERNOON ARE FORECAST TO RANGE BETWEEN
35 AND 45 PERCENT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS THIS WEEK.
FAIR AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY EVENING WITH A
RETURN TO UNSETTLED WEATHER FROM THE MID WEEK PERIOD ONWARD AS
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. AT THIS TIME...THE GREATER QPF AMOUNTS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR
WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM










000
FXUS61 KALY 190222
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1018 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER.  TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WILL BE COOL ACROSS THE REGION.  TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND CLOSE TO
SEASONABLE LEVELS FOR TUESDAY UNDER A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE.  A SLOW
MOVING STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD WITH CLOUDS
AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...MAINLY WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT...LITTLE IF ANYTHING TO CHANGE IN THIS UPDATE
OTHER THAN RE-TOOLING OF THE HOURLY GRIDS. IT IS A MAINLY CLEAR COOL
EVENING WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH THE 60S...AND IN MANY
CASES...THE 50S. THE WIND HAS GONE LIGHT OR CALM.


THE MAIN CHALLENGE OVERNIGHT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG. THE
RECENT DEWPOINT DROP HAS STEADY OFF WHICH WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
NARROWING DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OVERNIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF A
MAINLY CLEAR SKY...LIGHT WINDS /AND A LONGER NOCTURNAL PERIOD/
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN PATCHY FOG. THIS WILL WELL HANDLED IN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST SO LITTLE CHANGES NEEDED. AS FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS...TEMPERATURES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DACKS MAY DIP BACK TO A
FEW UPPER 30S...WITH MOST LOCATIONS INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S INTO
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH AND RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN A RATHER NICE
TRANQUIL DAY SETTING UP FOR TUESDAY. AFTER ANY PATCHY FOG BURNS
OFF...A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED. MIXING LAYER HEIGHTS
PER THE BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE NEAR H875 WHERE +14C/+15C RESIDES. DRY
ADIABATIC DECENT FROM THIS MIXING LAYER HEIGHT YIELDS 75F-80F FOR
VALLEY LOCATIONS AND LOW-MID 70S FOR THE TERRAIN.

TUESDAY NIGHT...UPSTREAM SYSTEM CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND LIKELY
ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH
OUR WESTERN ZONES OVERNIGHT. THIS IS SEEN IN THE H900-H800 RH
LAYER IN THE NCEP MODEL SUITE. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN PLACE SO WE WILL WITHHOLD THE MENTION OF PRECIP AT THIS
TIME. AT THE MINIMUM...WE WILL INCREASE LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS AS
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE A BIT MILDER WITH A BLEND OF THE CURRENT
MOS GUIDANCE.

WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY TRACK EAST.
MEANWHILE...THE SURFACE HIGH WANTS TO EXTENDS ITS INFLUENCE ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND AND INTO EASTERN NEW YORK. THIS MAY DELAY FURTHER THE
ONSET OF PRECIP. THE ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS ON THE 325K SURFACE FROM
THE GFS/NAM SUGGEST WHILE LIFT WILL BE ONGOING...THE
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS /CPD/ REMAIN RATHER HIGH
THROUGH MOST OF AT LEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. WE WILL FURTHER SLOW
DOWN THE POP/WX ARRIVAL AND KEEP MOST OF OUR NEW ENGLAND COUNTIES
DRY. IF SOME BREAKS OF SUN DO OCCUR...VALLEY TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE ABLE TO CLIMB AT OR ABOVE 80F WITH 70S ELSEWHERE.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE ISENTROPIC LIFT...LOWERING CPD/S...AND
WEAK YET PERSISTENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL FAVOR AN INCREASE IN
POPS FOR MOST OF EASTERN NEW YORK /ALONG AND WEST OF THE HUDSON
RIVER/ AND STILL ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE FOR OUR NEW ENGLAND
COUNTIES. THE LATEST ECMWF IS EVEN STRONGER WITH A DRIER SIGNAL
ALONG AND EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER AS THE SURFACE HIGH IS A BIT
STRONGER. SO WE WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS FOR PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY...ADIRONDACKS AND SCHOHARIE VALLEY. WITH THE
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A LITTLE MILDER
AS WELL WITH MAINLY 50S EXPECTED FOR THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BEGIN UNSETTLED WITH IMPROVING WEATHER BY
NEXT WEEKEND.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...LONG RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT HANDLING THE SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION DURING
THE LATE WORK WEEK/WEEKEND PERIOD...WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. IT
NOW APPEARS THAT MUCH OF THE DAY THURSDAY WILL FEATURE A CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE SYNOPTIC FORCING WITH THIS
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE WEAK WITH NOT MUCH QPF EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY
THIS SYSTEM.

AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST THURSDAY
NIGHT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST
WITH THE ENTIRE REGION NOW EXPECTED TO BE DRY FRIDAY AS A REX BLOCK
SETS UP ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL
RESULT IN BEAUTIFUL WEEKEND WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION AND FOR THE
START OF NEXT WEEK WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE MID
50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS.

HOWEVER...AS WE REACH AROUND 06Z...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO FALL TO THE
PROJECTED CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S AT KPSF AND KGFL.
WITH VIRTUALLY NO WIND...AND FEW IF ANY SENSIBLE CLOUDS...IT LOOKS
AS IF RADIATIONAL FOG WILL FORM AT BOTH THESE SPOTS. WE ARE
FORECASTING IFR MIST (2SM BR) AT BOTH SITES...BEGINNING AT 06Z/KGFL
AND 08Z/KPSF.

AT KPOU AND KALB IT LOOKS AS OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL STAY AT OR JUST
ABOVE THE CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES. IN THESE SITES WE JUST INCLUDED
VCFG FOR NOW...TO EXPRESS A LOW PROBABILITY THAT MVFR OR IFR MIST
COULD HAPPEN (LESS THAN 25 PERCENT CHANCE)...AT THE THOSE TAF SITES.

ANY AND ALL FOG WILL BE GONE BY 12Z...LEAVING US WITH A VFR DAY WITH
UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY...A FEW-SCT CU CLOUDS WITH BASES WELL ABOVE
THE VFR/MVFR THRESHOLD. (4-6 KFT). THE WIND WILL BE VARIABLE TO N-NE
GENERALLY AROUND 5KTS.


OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SLIGHT CHC
TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE SHRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE SHRA...SLIGHT CHC
TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY-SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH FAVORABLE
DRYING CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...DEW FORMATION AT NIGHT WILL REMAIN
HIGH ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG FORMATION. WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT WITH A SLIGHT SOUTHEAST DIRECTION
EVOLVING TUESDAY AT SPEEDS LESS THAN 10 MPH.

RH TONIGHT WILL RECOVER TO VALUES AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT. THE
MINIMUM RH VALUES TUESDAY AFTERNOON ARE FORECAST TO RANGE BETWEEN
35 AND 45 PERCENT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS THIS WEEK.
FAIR AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY EVENING WITH A
RETURN TO UNSETTLED WEATHER FROM THE MID WEEK PERIOD ONWARD AS
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. AT THIS TIME...THE GREATER QPF AMOUNTS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR
WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM










000
FXUS61 KOKX 190222
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1022 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING DOWN FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST INTO
NEW ENGLAND LATER THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SEVERAL WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE PASS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
OTHER THAN SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON LATEST SFC OBS...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS FOR
THE OVERNIGHT. FOR OUTLYING AREAS...EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDS. A SHALLOW BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL ENTER ERN CT
AND LONG ISLAND LATE AND TURN FLOW E-NE...TOO LATE TO HAVE MUCH
IMPACT ON TEMPS. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE
INTERIOR VALLEYS...TO 60-65 IN NYC METRO. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE
ACROSS OUTLYING AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS SFC TEMPS DROP CLOSE TO
THE DEW POINT TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHALLOW BACK DOOR FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM W-E EARLY IN
THE MORNING...TURNING LOW LEVEL FLOW EASTERLY AT FIRST...THEN SE
AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH SHIFTS SLIGHTLY E INTO NEW
ENGLAND AND ALSO LOCALLY VIA A SUPERIMPOSED SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION. HIGHS TEMPS ON TUE SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF
TODAY...EXCEPT A LITTLE COOLER IN THE UPPER 70S ACROSS LONG
ISLAND AND COASTAL CT WHERE MARITIME INFLUENCE WILL BE GREATER.

TUE NIGHT...SKIES WILL START OFF MOSTLY CLEAR...THEN BECOME PTCLDY
FROM NYC METRO WEST AS A LEAD SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF A WEAK CLOSED LOW
IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. A WEAK SFC LOW
PASSING OFF THE MID ATLC COAST SHOULD HAVE NO MORE EFFECT THAN TO
TURN WINDS BETWEEN IT AND THE HIGH TO THE NORTH MORE EASTERLY.
LOWS WILL BE MILDER THAN THOSE EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT...WITH 50S
INLAND AND MAINLY LOWER/MID 60S FOR NYC METRO AND THE COAST.

THERE WILL BE A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK AT THE OCEAN BEACHES ON
TUE...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHEAST AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA INTO
THE NORTHEAST AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM. UNDER THIS RIDGE...A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OVER THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THEN BECOMES BLOCKED
THIS WEEKEND AS RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA AND THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC TRAPPING THE UPPER LOW BETWEEN THESE TWO RIDGES. AT
THE SURFACE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND REMAIN THE DOMINANT
SURFACE FEATURE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED
BLOCKING PATTERN.

HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY AS NO REAL SUPPORT FOR
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. STILL HAVE CHANCE POPS ON THURSDAY WITH THE
UPPER LOW MOVING OVER THE REGION. POPS THEN LOWER TO SLIGHT CHANCE
FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LOW LINGERS JUST OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...WITH
SURFACE HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH...MUCH OF THE DAY SHOULD
REMAIN DRY. HAVE CONTINUED WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND AS
BEST SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS APPEARS TO REMAIN OFFSHORE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR JUST BELOW NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY AND FALL
TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. PERIODS OF CLOUD COVER AND AN EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE
SURFACE WINDS WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM RISING ABOVE 80 DEGREES
DURING THIS PERIOD. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE
60S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND OFFSHORE ON
TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

LIGHT AND VRB WINDS OVERNIGHT. A NE-E FLOW TUE MORNING WILL
BECOME SE AS HIGH PRES SHIFTS E OF THE AREA. SEABREEZE INFLUENCES
LIKELY AT COASTAL TERMINALS AFT 17Z.

WIND DIRECTIONS COULD BE 20-30 DEGREES RIGHT OF FORECAST AT KJFK
AND KLGA AFT 17Z TUE.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ISOLD SHRA/TSTM POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN
TERMINALS.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...CHANCE OF SHOWERS. MVFR POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
QUIET CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH FRI MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN
TO APPROACH SCA LEVELS LATE FRI...AND CONTINUE INTO SAT AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO INCREASE BETWEEN A DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW OVER THE ATLANTIC AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTH. WINDS MAY APPROACH 25 KT AND OCEAN SEAS MAY RANGE BETWEEN
5-7 FT BY LATE SAT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/MPS
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...24
MARINE...GOODMAN/MET
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN






000
FXUS61 KOKX 190222
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1022 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING DOWN FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST INTO
NEW ENGLAND LATER THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SEVERAL WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE PASS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
OTHER THAN SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON LATEST SFC OBS...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS FOR
THE OVERNIGHT. FOR OUTLYING AREAS...EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDS. A SHALLOW BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL ENTER ERN CT
AND LONG ISLAND LATE AND TURN FLOW E-NE...TOO LATE TO HAVE MUCH
IMPACT ON TEMPS. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE
INTERIOR VALLEYS...TO 60-65 IN NYC METRO. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE
ACROSS OUTLYING AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS SFC TEMPS DROP CLOSE TO
THE DEW POINT TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHALLOW BACK DOOR FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM W-E EARLY IN
THE MORNING...TURNING LOW LEVEL FLOW EASTERLY AT FIRST...THEN SE
AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH SHIFTS SLIGHTLY E INTO NEW
ENGLAND AND ALSO LOCALLY VIA A SUPERIMPOSED SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION. HIGHS TEMPS ON TUE SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF
TODAY...EXCEPT A LITTLE COOLER IN THE UPPER 70S ACROSS LONG
ISLAND AND COASTAL CT WHERE MARITIME INFLUENCE WILL BE GREATER.

TUE NIGHT...SKIES WILL START OFF MOSTLY CLEAR...THEN BECOME PTCLDY
FROM NYC METRO WEST AS A LEAD SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF A WEAK CLOSED LOW
IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. A WEAK SFC LOW
PASSING OFF THE MID ATLC COAST SHOULD HAVE NO MORE EFFECT THAN TO
TURN WINDS BETWEEN IT AND THE HIGH TO THE NORTH MORE EASTERLY.
LOWS WILL BE MILDER THAN THOSE EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT...WITH 50S
INLAND AND MAINLY LOWER/MID 60S FOR NYC METRO AND THE COAST.

THERE WILL BE A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK AT THE OCEAN BEACHES ON
TUE...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHEAST AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA INTO
THE NORTHEAST AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM. UNDER THIS RIDGE...A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OVER THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THEN BECOMES BLOCKED
THIS WEEKEND AS RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA AND THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC TRAPPING THE UPPER LOW BETWEEN THESE TWO RIDGES. AT
THE SURFACE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND REMAIN THE DOMINANT
SURFACE FEATURE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED
BLOCKING PATTERN.

HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY AS NO REAL SUPPORT FOR
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. STILL HAVE CHANCE POPS ON THURSDAY WITH THE
UPPER LOW MOVING OVER THE REGION. POPS THEN LOWER TO SLIGHT CHANCE
FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LOW LINGERS JUST OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...WITH
SURFACE HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH...MUCH OF THE DAY SHOULD
REMAIN DRY. HAVE CONTINUED WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND AS
BEST SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS APPEARS TO REMAIN OFFSHORE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR JUST BELOW NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY AND FALL
TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. PERIODS OF CLOUD COVER AND AN EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE
SURFACE WINDS WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM RISING ABOVE 80 DEGREES
DURING THIS PERIOD. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE
60S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND OFFSHORE ON
TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

LIGHT AND VRB WINDS OVERNIGHT. A NE-E FLOW TUE MORNING WILL
BECOME SE AS HIGH PRES SHIFTS E OF THE AREA. SEABREEZE INFLUENCES
LIKELY AT COASTAL TERMINALS AFT 17Z.

WIND DIRECTIONS COULD BE 20-30 DEGREES RIGHT OF FORECAST AT KJFK
AND KLGA AFT 17Z TUE.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ISOLD SHRA/TSTM POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN
TERMINALS.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...CHANCE OF SHOWERS. MVFR POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
QUIET CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH FRI MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN
TO APPROACH SCA LEVELS LATE FRI...AND CONTINUE INTO SAT AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO INCREASE BETWEEN A DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW OVER THE ATLANTIC AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTH. WINDS MAY APPROACH 25 KT AND OCEAN SEAS MAY RANGE BETWEEN
5-7 FT BY LATE SAT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/MPS
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...24
MARINE...GOODMAN/MET
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN







000
FXUS61 KBOX 190200
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1000 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
REMAINING DRY AND SEASONABLE INTO WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY A COOLER
PATTERN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS /MAINLY OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND/. UNCERTAINTY
IN THE FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND WITH REGARDS TO THE PROXIMITY OF
A COASTAL LOW OFF OF NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...

A GLANCE AROUND AREA OBS SHOW MANY LOCATIONS HAVE WINDS ALREADY
BELOW 5 KT WITH SKIES CONTINUING TO CLEAR PER LASTS IR IMAGERY.
THEREFORE...WITH DWPTS IN THE 40S AND LOW 50S...PLENTY OF ROOM FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT. HAVE DROPPED MIN TEMPS A BIT GIVEN
THE SETUP AND EARLY EVENING CALM/CLEAR OBS. OTHERWISE...MOST OTHER
FORECAST PARAMETERS ON TRACK FOR THIS UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...

WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION WITH DRY AIR
AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS. WHILE SOME SCATTERED MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE
OVER SW NEW ENGLAND...OVERALL EXPECTING A PRETTY CHILLY NIGHT WITH
LOWS INTO THE LOW-50S. A FEW SPOTS WHICH CLIMATOLOGICALLY RADIATE
WELL /I.E. SHELTERED VALLEYS WITHIN THE CT-RIVER VALLEY...SW
MA...AND MARTHAS VINEYARD/ COULD SEE LOWS AROUND THE UPPER-40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...

GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT OF H5 RIDGE ENHANCEMENT W OF THE REGION AHEAD
OF A SYNOPTIC DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT
IN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN CONTROL WITH CONTINUED DRY AIR
AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...AS H85 TEMPERATURES WARM A COUPLE OF DEGREES
TO +10-12C.

WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD ALLOW FOR SEA-
BREEZES ALONG THE SHORES. SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS ANTICIPATED WITH
DAYTIME HEATING. WITH MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WARMING...ANTICIPATE
MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS AROUND THE UPPER-70S.

TUESDAY NIGHT...

WILL HOLD THE MID-ATLANTIC LOW PRESSURE DISTURBANCE S OF NEW
ENGLAND...PREVAILING WITH A W TO E MOTION THROUGH THE QUASI-ZONAL
FLOW. THIS REMOVES THE 18.09Z SREF FROM CONSIDERATION. FIGURE WITH
THE MULTITUDE OF SYSTEMS SURROUNDING THE NE-CONUS SHOULD KEEP THE
REGION BENEATH CONTINUED SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR.

ANTICIPATING A QUIET EVENING. PERHAPS SOME MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS
FILTER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE REGION OF DISTURBED WEATHER
S. OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS AND LIKELY ANOTHER OVERNIGHT PERIOD OF
CHILLY TEMPERATURES. LOWS AROUND THE MID-50S WITH A FEW LOCATIONS
THAT RADIATE OUT EFFECTIVELY FALLING INTO THE UPPER-40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK
* UNCERTAINTY INCREASES OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK ON THE
GENERAL PATTERN AS WELL AS THE SENSIBLE WEATHER. FOR THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...MODELS DIVERGE AS THE GFS TAKES ON A
MORE BLOCKY UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AND THE ECMWF REMAINS A BIT MORE
PROGRESSIVE. THIS RESULTS IN SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER THE
WEEKEND. BOTH MODELS HAVE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WHICH RESULTS IN THE COOLER...LESS
SEASONABLE WEATHER. THEN FOR THE WEEKEND...THE ECMWF MOVES THE
TROUGH OFFSHORE ALLOWING FOR A MORE PROGRESSIVE ZONAL FLOW WHILE
THE GFS KEEPS THE TROUGH ANCHORED OVER THE NORTHEAST. THIS ALSO
CREATES CHANGES IN THE SURFACE PATTERN. HIGH PRESSURE IN QUEBEC
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK SINKS SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
WEEKEND ON THE ECMWF PUSHING A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
MOVING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WELL OFFSHORE. THE HIGH IS
EVENTUALLY PUSHED EASTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK ALLOWING A COLD FRONT
TO PUSH THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE GFS MOVES THE HIGH
PRESSURE EASTWARD THIS WEEKEND INSTEAD WHICH ALLOWS LOW PRESSURE
TO MOVE UP THE COAST JUST OUTSIDE OF THE 40/70 BENCHMARK...
BRINGING RAIN TO MUCH OF THE REGION SUNDAY. GIVEN THIS IS AT THE
END OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST...WILL STICK WITH A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AND SEE WHERE FUTURE RUNS OF THE MODELS
TAKE US.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STICKS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN QUEBEC SINKING INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. SEASONABLE TO JUST BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY THAT A
FEW SHOWERS MAY BLEED INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY...BUT
IT IS EXPECTED THAT MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN IN NEW
YORK STATE.

THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS STATED ABOVE THIS IS WHERE
THE BULK OF THE UNCERTAINTY IS. SATURDAY SHOULD STILL BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES
AND DRY WEATHER. SUNDAY AND MONDAY HAVE THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF
SHOWERS OR RAIN AS EITHER A COLD FRONT OR A COASTAL LOW BRING
MOISTURE TO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD START TO WARM A FEW
DEGREES THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

00Z UPDATE...

TONIGHT...LIGHT N WINDS ANTICIPATED UNDER SKC. PATCHY MVFR-IFR
GROUND FOG IS POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS CONTINUE ALLOWING SEABREEZES TO
DEVELOP AROUND 14Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE EVENING. SCT CIGS
AROUND 5-6 KFT

TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY SKC WITH SOME FILTERING MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR. LOW
PROBABILITY OF PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

AN OVERALL THEME OF HIGH PRESSURE AND QUIET BOATING WEATHER.

S/SW-FLOW WILL DIMINISH INTO EVENING AS WINDS TURN OUT OF THE N.
SEA-BREEZES WASH-OUT ALONG THE NEAR-SHORES. WILL SEE THE RETURN
OF SE-WINDS TUESDAY TURNING N/NE INTO THE EVENING PERIOD...
STRENGTHENING 10-15 KTS IN RESPONSE TO A STORM SWEEPING OUT TO
SEA OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION.
LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY OVERNIGHT FOG LIMITING VISIBILITIES.
SEAS MAY INCREASE ON THE OUTER WATERS SATURDAY AS AN OCEAN STORM
PASSES WELL EAST OF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...DOODY/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...RLG/SIPPRELL
MARINE...RLG/SIPPRELL



000
FXUS61 KBOX 190200
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1000 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
REMAINING DRY AND SEASONABLE INTO WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY A COOLER
PATTERN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS /MAINLY OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND/. UNCERTAINTY
IN THE FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND WITH REGARDS TO THE PROXIMITY OF
A COASTAL LOW OFF OF NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...

A GLANCE AROUND AREA OBS SHOW MANY LOCATIONS HAVE WINDS ALREADY
BELOW 5 KT WITH SKIES CONTINUING TO CLEAR PER LASTS IR IMAGERY.
THEREFORE...WITH DWPTS IN THE 40S AND LOW 50S...PLENTY OF ROOM FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT. HAVE DROPPED MIN TEMPS A BIT GIVEN
THE SETUP AND EARLY EVENING CALM/CLEAR OBS. OTHERWISE...MOST OTHER
FORECAST PARAMETERS ON TRACK FOR THIS UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...

WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION WITH DRY AIR
AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS. WHILE SOME SCATTERED MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE
OVER SW NEW ENGLAND...OVERALL EXPECTING A PRETTY CHILLY NIGHT WITH
LOWS INTO THE LOW-50S. A FEW SPOTS WHICH CLIMATOLOGICALLY RADIATE
WELL /I.E. SHELTERED VALLEYS WITHIN THE CT-RIVER VALLEY...SW
MA...AND MARTHAS VINEYARD/ COULD SEE LOWS AROUND THE UPPER-40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...

GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT OF H5 RIDGE ENHANCEMENT W OF THE REGION AHEAD
OF A SYNOPTIC DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT
IN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN CONTROL WITH CONTINUED DRY AIR
AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...AS H85 TEMPERATURES WARM A COUPLE OF DEGREES
TO +10-12C.

WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD ALLOW FOR SEA-
BREEZES ALONG THE SHORES. SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS ANTICIPATED WITH
DAYTIME HEATING. WITH MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WARMING...ANTICIPATE
MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS AROUND THE UPPER-70S.

TUESDAY NIGHT...

WILL HOLD THE MID-ATLANTIC LOW PRESSURE DISTURBANCE S OF NEW
ENGLAND...PREVAILING WITH A W TO E MOTION THROUGH THE QUASI-ZONAL
FLOW. THIS REMOVES THE 18.09Z SREF FROM CONSIDERATION. FIGURE WITH
THE MULTITUDE OF SYSTEMS SURROUNDING THE NE-CONUS SHOULD KEEP THE
REGION BENEATH CONTINUED SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR.

ANTICIPATING A QUIET EVENING. PERHAPS SOME MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS
FILTER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE REGION OF DISTURBED WEATHER
S. OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS AND LIKELY ANOTHER OVERNIGHT PERIOD OF
CHILLY TEMPERATURES. LOWS AROUND THE MID-50S WITH A FEW LOCATIONS
THAT RADIATE OUT EFFECTIVELY FALLING INTO THE UPPER-40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK
* UNCERTAINTY INCREASES OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK ON THE
GENERAL PATTERN AS WELL AS THE SENSIBLE WEATHER. FOR THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...MODELS DIVERGE AS THE GFS TAKES ON A
MORE BLOCKY UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AND THE ECMWF REMAINS A BIT MORE
PROGRESSIVE. THIS RESULTS IN SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER THE
WEEKEND. BOTH MODELS HAVE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WHICH RESULTS IN THE COOLER...LESS
SEASONABLE WEATHER. THEN FOR THE WEEKEND...THE ECMWF MOVES THE
TROUGH OFFSHORE ALLOWING FOR A MORE PROGRESSIVE ZONAL FLOW WHILE
THE GFS KEEPS THE TROUGH ANCHORED OVER THE NORTHEAST. THIS ALSO
CREATES CHANGES IN THE SURFACE PATTERN. HIGH PRESSURE IN QUEBEC
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK SINKS SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
WEEKEND ON THE ECMWF PUSHING A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
MOVING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WELL OFFSHORE. THE HIGH IS
EVENTUALLY PUSHED EASTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK ALLOWING A COLD FRONT
TO PUSH THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE GFS MOVES THE HIGH
PRESSURE EASTWARD THIS WEEKEND INSTEAD WHICH ALLOWS LOW PRESSURE
TO MOVE UP THE COAST JUST OUTSIDE OF THE 40/70 BENCHMARK...
BRINGING RAIN TO MUCH OF THE REGION SUNDAY. GIVEN THIS IS AT THE
END OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST...WILL STICK WITH A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AND SEE WHERE FUTURE RUNS OF THE MODELS
TAKE US.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STICKS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN QUEBEC SINKING INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. SEASONABLE TO JUST BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY THAT A
FEW SHOWERS MAY BLEED INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY...BUT
IT IS EXPECTED THAT MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN IN NEW
YORK STATE.

THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS STATED ABOVE THIS IS WHERE
THE BULK OF THE UNCERTAINTY IS. SATURDAY SHOULD STILL BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES
AND DRY WEATHER. SUNDAY AND MONDAY HAVE THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF
SHOWERS OR RAIN AS EITHER A COLD FRONT OR A COASTAL LOW BRING
MOISTURE TO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD START TO WARM A FEW
DEGREES THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

00Z UPDATE...

TONIGHT...LIGHT N WINDS ANTICIPATED UNDER SKC. PATCHY MVFR-IFR
GROUND FOG IS POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS CONTINUE ALLOWING SEABREEZES TO
DEVELOP AROUND 14Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE EVENING. SCT CIGS
AROUND 5-6 KFT

TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY SKC WITH SOME FILTERING MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR. LOW
PROBABILITY OF PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

AN OVERALL THEME OF HIGH PRESSURE AND QUIET BOATING WEATHER.

S/SW-FLOW WILL DIMINISH INTO EVENING AS WINDS TURN OUT OF THE N.
SEA-BREEZES WASH-OUT ALONG THE NEAR-SHORES. WILL SEE THE RETURN
OF SE-WINDS TUESDAY TURNING N/NE INTO THE EVENING PERIOD...
STRENGTHENING 10-15 KTS IN RESPONSE TO A STORM SWEEPING OUT TO
SEA OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION.
LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY OVERNIGHT FOG LIMITING VISIBILITIES.
SEAS MAY INCREASE ON THE OUTER WATERS SATURDAY AS AN OCEAN STORM
PASSES WELL EAST OF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...DOODY/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...RLG/SIPPRELL
MARINE...RLG/SIPPRELL




000
FXUS61 KOKX 190113
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
913 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING DOWN FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST INTO
NEW ENGLAND LATER THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SEVERAL WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE PASS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
OTHER THAN SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON LATEST SFC OBS...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS FOR
THE OVERNIGHT. FOR OUTLYING AREAS...EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDS. A SHALLOW BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL ENTER ERN CT
AND LONG ISLAND LATE AND TURN FLOW E-NE...TOO LATE TO HAVE MUCH
IMPACT ON TEMPS. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE
INTERIOR VALLEYS...TO 60-65 IN NYC METRO. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE
ACROSS OUTLYING AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS SFC TEMPS DROP CLOSE TO
THE DEW POINT TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHALLOW BACK DOOR FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM W-E EARLY IN
THE MORNING...TURNING LOW LEVEL FLOW EASTERLY AT FIRST...THEN SE
AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH SHIFTS SLIGHTLY E INTO NEW
ENGLAND AND ALSO LOCALLY VIA A SUPERIMPOSED SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION. HIGHS TEMPS ON TUE SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF
TODAY...EXCEPT A LITTLE COOLER IN THE UPPER 70S ACROSS LONG
ISLAND AND COASTAL CT WHERE MARITIME INFLUENCE WILL BE GREATER.

TUE NIGHT...SKIES WILL START OFF MOSTLY CLEAR...THEN BECOME PTCLDY
FROM NYC METRO WEST AS A LEAD SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF A WEAK CLOSED LOW
IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. A WEAK SFC LOW
PASSING OFF THE MID ATLC COAST SHOULD HAVE NO MORE EFFECT THAN TO
TURN WINDS BETWEEN IT AND THE HIGH TO THE NORTH MORE EASTERLY.
LOWS WILL BE MILDER THAN THOSE EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT...WITH 50S
INLAND AND MAINLY LOWER/MID 60S FOR NYC METRO AND THE COAST.

THERE WILL BE A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK AT THE OCEAN BEACHES ON
TUE...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHEAST AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA INTO
THE NORTHEAST AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM. UNDER THIS RIDGE...A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OVER THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THEN BECOMES BLOCKED
THIS WEEKEND AS RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA AND THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC TRAPPING THE UPPER LOW BETWEEN THESE TWO RIDGES. AT
THE SURFACE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND REMAIN THE DOMINANT
SURFACE FEATURE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED
BLOCKING PATTERN.

HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY AS NO REAL SUPPORT FOR
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. STILL HAVE CHANCE POPS ON THURSDAY WITH THE
UPPER LOW MOVING OVER THE REGION. POPS THEN LOWER TO SLIGHT CHANCE
FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LOW LINGERS JUST OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...WITH
SURFACE HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH...MUCH OF THE DAY SHOULD
REMAIN DRY. HAVE CONTINUED WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND AS
BEST SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS APPEARS TO REMAIN OFFSHORE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR JUST BELOW NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY AND FALL
TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. PERIODS OF CLOUD COVER AND AN EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE
SURFACE WINDS WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM RISING ABOVE 80 DEGREES
DURING THIS PERIOD. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE
60S.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND OFFSHORE ON
TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VRB THIS EVE AND OVERNIGHT. A NE-E FLOW TUE
MORN WILL BECOME SE AS HIGH PRES SHIFTS E OF THE AREA. SEABREEZE
INFLUENCES LIKELY AT COASTAL TERMINALS AFT 17Z.

   NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SLY WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KT THIS
EVE. WIND DIRECTIONS COULD BE 20-30 DEGREES RIGHT OF FORECAST AFT
17Z TUE.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: SLY WINDS ON DOORSTEP OF AIRFIELD. WILL GO
THROUGH IN NEXT 15-20 MIN WITH SPEEDS JUST UNDER 10 KT. WIND
DIRECTIONS COULD BE 20-30 DEGREES RIGHT OF FORECAST AFT 17Z TUE.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ISOLD SHRA/TSTM POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN
TERMINALS.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...CHANCE OF SHOWERS. MVFR POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
QUIET CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH FRI MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN
TO APPROACH SCA LEVELS LATE FRI...AND CONTINUE INTO SAT AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO INCREASE BETWEEN A DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW OVER THE ATLANTIC AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTH. WINDS MAY APPROACH 25 KT AND OCEAN SEAS MAY RANGE BETWEEN
5-7 FT BY LATE SAT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/MPS
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...24
MARINE...GOODMAN/MET
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN









000
FXUS61 KOKX 190020
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
820 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING DOWN FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST INTO
NEW ENGLAND LATER THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SEVERAL WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE PASS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING.
OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT
SHOULD PROMOTE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. A SHALLOW BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT WILL ENTER ERN CT AND LONG ISLAND LATE AND TURN FLOW
E-NE...TOO LATE TO HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON TEMPS. LOWS SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE INTERIOR VALLEYS...TO 60-65 IN NYC
METRO. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS OUTLYING AREAS AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHALLOW BACK DOOR FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM W-E EARLY IN
THE MORNING...TURNING LOW LEVEL FLOW EASTERLY AT FIRST...THEN SE
AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH SHIFTS SLIGHTLY E INTO NEW
ENGLAND AND ALSO LOCALLY VIA A SUPERIMPOSED SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION. HIGHS TEMPS ON TUE SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF
TODAY...EXCEPT A LITTLE COOLER IN THE UPPER 70S ACROSS LONG
ISLAND AND COASTAL CT WHERE MARITIME INFLUENCE WILL BE GREATER.

TUE NIGHT...SKIES WILL START OFF MOSTLY CLEAR...THEN BECOME PTCLDY
FROM NYC METRO WEST AS A LEAD SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF A WEAK CLOSED LOW
IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. A WEAK SFC LOW
PASSING OFF THE MID ATLC COAST SHOULD HAVE NO MORE EFFECT THAN TO
TURN WINDS BETWEEN IT AND THE HIGH TO THE NORTH MORE EASTERLY.
LOWS WILL BE MILDER THAN THOSE EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT...WITH 50S
INLAND AND MAINLY LOWER/MID 60S FOR NYC METRO AND THE COAST.

THERE WILL BE A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK AT THE OCEAN BEACHES ON
TUE...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHEAST AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA INTO
THE NORTHEAST AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM. UNDER THIS RIDGE...A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OVER THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THEN BECOMES BLOCKED
THIS WEEKEND AS RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA AND THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC TRAPPING THE UPPER LOW BETWEEN THESE TWO RIDGES. AT
THE SURFACE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND REMAIN THE DOMINANT
SURFACE FEATURE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED
BLOCKING PATTERN.

HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY AS NO REAL SUPPORT FOR
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. STILL HAVE CHANCE POPS ON THURSDAY WITH THE
UPPER LOW MOVING OVER THE REGION. POPS THEN LOWER TO SLIGHT CHANCE
FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LOW LINGERS JUST OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...WITH
SURFACE HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH...MUCH OF THE DAY SHOULD
REMAIN DRY. HAVE CONTINUED WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND AS
BEST SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS APPEARS TO REMAIN OFFSHORE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR JUST BELOW NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY AND FALL
TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. PERIODS OF CLOUD COVER AND AN EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE
SURFACE WINDS WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM RISING ABOVE 80 DEGREES
DURING THIS PERIOD. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE
60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND OFFSHORE ON
TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VRB THIS EVE AND OVERNIGHT. A NE-E FLOW TUE
MORN WILL BECOME SE AS HIGH PRES SHIFTS E OF THE AREA. SEABREEZE
INFLUENCES LIKELY AT COASTAL TERMINALS AFT 17Z.

   NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SLY WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KT THIS
EVE. WIND DIRECTIONS COULD BE 20-30 DEGREES RIGHT OF FORECAST AFT
17Z TUE.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: SLY WINDS ON DOORSTEP OF AIRFIELD. WILL GO
THROUGH IN NEXT 15-20 MIN WITH SPEEDS JUST UNDER 10 KT. WIND
DIRECTIONS COULD BE 20-30 DEGREES RIGHT OF FORECAST AFT 17Z TUE.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ISOLD SHRA/TSTM POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN
TERMINALS.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...CHANCE OF SHOWERS. MVFR POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
QUIET CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH FRI MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN
TO APPROACH SCA LEVELS LATE FRI...AND CONTINUE INTO SAT AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO INCREASE BETWEEN A DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW OVER THE ATLANTIC AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTH. WINDS MAY APPROACH 25 KT AND OCEAN SEAS MAY RANGE BETWEEN
5-7 FT BY LATE SAT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/MPS
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...24
MARINE...GOODMAN/MET
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN







000
FXUS61 KOKX 190020
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
820 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING DOWN FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST INTO
NEW ENGLAND LATER THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SEVERAL WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE PASS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING.
OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT
SHOULD PROMOTE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. A SHALLOW BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT WILL ENTER ERN CT AND LONG ISLAND LATE AND TURN FLOW
E-NE...TOO LATE TO HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON TEMPS. LOWS SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE INTERIOR VALLEYS...TO 60-65 IN NYC
METRO. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS OUTLYING AREAS AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHALLOW BACK DOOR FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM W-E EARLY IN
THE MORNING...TURNING LOW LEVEL FLOW EASTERLY AT FIRST...THEN SE
AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH SHIFTS SLIGHTLY E INTO NEW
ENGLAND AND ALSO LOCALLY VIA A SUPERIMPOSED SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION. HIGHS TEMPS ON TUE SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF
TODAY...EXCEPT A LITTLE COOLER IN THE UPPER 70S ACROSS LONG
ISLAND AND COASTAL CT WHERE MARITIME INFLUENCE WILL BE GREATER.

TUE NIGHT...SKIES WILL START OFF MOSTLY CLEAR...THEN BECOME PTCLDY
FROM NYC METRO WEST AS A LEAD SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF A WEAK CLOSED LOW
IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. A WEAK SFC LOW
PASSING OFF THE MID ATLC COAST SHOULD HAVE NO MORE EFFECT THAN TO
TURN WINDS BETWEEN IT AND THE HIGH TO THE NORTH MORE EASTERLY.
LOWS WILL BE MILDER THAN THOSE EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT...WITH 50S
INLAND AND MAINLY LOWER/MID 60S FOR NYC METRO AND THE COAST.

THERE WILL BE A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK AT THE OCEAN BEACHES ON
TUE...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHEAST AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA INTO
THE NORTHEAST AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM. UNDER THIS RIDGE...A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OVER THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THEN BECOMES BLOCKED
THIS WEEKEND AS RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA AND THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC TRAPPING THE UPPER LOW BETWEEN THESE TWO RIDGES. AT
THE SURFACE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND REMAIN THE DOMINANT
SURFACE FEATURE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED
BLOCKING PATTERN.

HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY AS NO REAL SUPPORT FOR
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. STILL HAVE CHANCE POPS ON THURSDAY WITH THE
UPPER LOW MOVING OVER THE REGION. POPS THEN LOWER TO SLIGHT CHANCE
FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LOW LINGERS JUST OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...WITH
SURFACE HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH...MUCH OF THE DAY SHOULD
REMAIN DRY. HAVE CONTINUED WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND AS
BEST SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS APPEARS TO REMAIN OFFSHORE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR JUST BELOW NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY AND FALL
TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. PERIODS OF CLOUD COVER AND AN EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE
SURFACE WINDS WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM RISING ABOVE 80 DEGREES
DURING THIS PERIOD. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE
60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND OFFSHORE ON
TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VRB THIS EVE AND OVERNIGHT. A NE-E FLOW TUE
MORN WILL BECOME SE AS HIGH PRES SHIFTS E OF THE AREA. SEABREEZE
INFLUENCES LIKELY AT COASTAL TERMINALS AFT 17Z.

   NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SLY WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KT THIS
EVE. WIND DIRECTIONS COULD BE 20-30 DEGREES RIGHT OF FORECAST AFT
17Z TUE.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: SLY WINDS ON DOORSTEP OF AIRFIELD. WILL GO
THROUGH IN NEXT 15-20 MIN WITH SPEEDS JUST UNDER 10 KT. WIND
DIRECTIONS COULD BE 20-30 DEGREES RIGHT OF FORECAST AFT 17Z TUE.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ISOLD SHRA/TSTM POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN
TERMINALS.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...CHANCE OF SHOWERS. MVFR POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
QUIET CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH FRI MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN
TO APPROACH SCA LEVELS LATE FRI...AND CONTINUE INTO SAT AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO INCREASE BETWEEN A DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW OVER THE ATLANTIC AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTH. WINDS MAY APPROACH 25 KT AND OCEAN SEAS MAY RANGE BETWEEN
5-7 FT BY LATE SAT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/MPS
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...24
MARINE...GOODMAN/MET
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN






000
FXUS61 KALY 182339
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
740 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER.  TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WILL BE COOL ACROSS THE REGION.  TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND CLOSE TO
SEASONABLE LEVELS FOR TUESDAY UNDER A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE.  A SLOW
MOVING STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD WITH CLOUDS
AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...MAINLY WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM EDT...A MAINLY CLEAR PLEASANT LATE SUMMER EVENING WITH
DEWPOINTS AROUND 50 (OR A LITTLE LESS). TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE
70S...EXCEPT ALREADY MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A
LIGHT NORTHWEST BREEZE PERSISTED IN MANY SPOTS.

THE WIND WILL DIMINISH TO NEARLY CALM AND SO WILL TEMPERATURES AS
THEY FALL THROUGH THE 60S DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

THE ONLY CHANGES IN THIS FORECAST WAS TO TWEAK THE HOURLY GRIDS.

THE MAIN CHALLENGE OVERNIGHT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG. THE
RECENT DEWPOINT DROP HAS STEADY OFF WHICH WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
NARROWING DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OVERNIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF A
MAINLY CLEAR SKY...LIGHT WINDS /AND A LONGER NOCTURNAL PERIOD/
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN PATCHY FOG. THIS WILL WELL HANDLED IN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST SO LITTLE CHANGES NEEDED. AS FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS...TEMPERATURES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DACKS MAY DIP BACK TO A
FEW UPPER 30S...WITH MOST LOCATIONS INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S INTO
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH AND RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN A RATHER NICE
TRANQUIL DAY SETTING UP FOR TUESDAY. AFTER ANY PATCHY FOG BURNS
OFF...A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED. MIXING LAYER HEIGHTS
PER THE BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE NEAR H875 WHERE +14C/+15C RESIDES. DRY
ADIABATIC DECENT FROM THIS MIXING LAYER HEIGHT YIELDS 75F-80F FOR
VALLEY LOCATIONS AND LOW-MID 70S FOR THE TERRAIN.

TUESDAY NIGHT...UPSTREAM SYSTEM CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND LIKELY
ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH
OUR WESTERN ZONES OVERNIGHT. THIS IS SEEN IN THE H900-H800 RH
LAYER IN THE NCEP MODEL SUITE. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN PLACE SO WE WILL WITHHOLD THE MENTION OF PRECIP AT THIS
TIME. AT THE MINIMUM...WE WILL INCREASE LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS AS
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE A BIT MILDER WITH A BLEND OF THE CURRENT
MOS GUIDANCE.

WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY TRACK EAST.
MEANWHILE...THE SURFACE HIGH WANTS TO EXTENDS ITS INFLUENCE ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND AND INTO EASTERN NEW YORK. THIS MAY DELAY FURTHER THE
ONSET OF PRECIP. THE ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS ON THE 325K SURFACE FROM
THE GFS/NAM SUGGEST WHILE LIFT WILL BE ONGOING...THE
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS /CPD/ REMAIN RATHER HIGH
THROUGH MOST OF AT LEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. WE WILL FURTHER SLOW
DOWN THE POP/WX ARRIVAL AND KEEP MOST OF OUR NEW ENGLAND COUNTIES
DRY. IF SOME BREAKS OF SUN DO OCCUR...VALLEY TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE ABLE TO CLIMB AT OR ABOVE 80F WITH 70S ELSEWHERE.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE ISENTROPIC LIFT...LOWERING CPD/S...AND
WEAK YET PERSISTENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL FAVOR AN INCREASE IN
POPS FOR MOST OF EASTERN NEW YORK /ALONG AND WEST OF THE HUDSON
RIVER/ AND STILL ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE FOR OUR NEW ENGLAND
COUNTIES. THE LATEST ECMWF IS EVEN STRONGER WITH A DRIER SIGNAL
ALONG AND EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER AS THE SURFACE HIGH IS A BIT
STRONGER. SO WE WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS FOR PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY...ADIRONDACKS AND SCHOHARIE VALLEY. WITH THE
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A LITTLE MILDER
AS WELL WITH MAINLY 50S EXPECTED FOR THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BEGIN UNSETTLED WITH IMPROVING WEATHER BY
NEXT WEEKEND.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...LONG RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT HANDLING THE SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION DURING
THE LATE WORK WEEK/WEEKEND PERIOD...WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. IT
NOW APPEARS THAT MUCH OF THE DAY THURSDAY WILL FEATURE A CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE SYNOPTIC FORCING WITH THIS
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE WEAK WITH NOT MUCH QPF EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY
THIS SYSTEM.

AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST THURSDAY
NIGHT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST
WITH THE ENTIRE REGION NOW EXPECTED TO BE DRY FRIDAY AS A REX BLOCK
SETS UP ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL
RESULT IN BEAUTIFUL WEEKEND WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION AND FOR THE
START OF NEXT WEEK WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE MID
50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS.

HOWEVER...AS WE REACH AROUND 06Z...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO FALL TO THE
PROJECTED CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S AT KPSF AND KGFL.
WITH VIRTUALLY NO WIND...AND FEW IF ANY SENSIBLE CLOUDS...IT LOOKS
AS IF RADIATIONAL FOG WILL FORM AT BOTH THESE SPOTS. WE ARE
FORECASTING IFR MIST (2SM BR) AT BOTH SITES...BEGINNING AT 06Z/KGFL
AND 08Z/KPSF.

AT KPOU AND KALB IT LOOKS AS OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL STAY AT OR JUST
ABOVE THE CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES. IN THESE SITES WE JUST INCLUDED
VCFG FOR NOW...TO EXPRESS A LOW PROBABILITY THAT MVFR OR IFR MIST
COULD HAPPEN (LESS THAN 25 PERCENT CHANCE).

ANY AND ALL FOG WILL BE GONE BY 12Z...LEAVING US WITH A VFR DAY WITH
UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY...A FEW-SCT CU CLOUDS WITH BASES WELL ABOVE
THE VFR/MVFR THRESHOLD. (4-6 KFT). THE WIND WILL BE VARIABLE TO N-NE
GENERALLY AROUND 5KTS.


OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SLIGHT CHC
TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE SHRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE SHRA...SLIGHT CHC
TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY-SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH FAVORABLE
DRYING CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...DEW FORMATION AT NIGHT WILL REMAIN
HIGH ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG FORMATION. WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT WITH A SLIGHT SOUTHEAST DIRECTION
EVOLVING TUESDAY AT SPEEDS LESS THAN 10 MPH.

RH TONIGHT WILL RECOVER TO VALUES AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT. THE
MINIMUM RH VALUES TUESDAY AFTERNOON ARE FORECAST TO RANGE BETWEEN
35 AND 45 PERCENT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS THIS WEEK.
FAIR AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY EVENING WITH A
RETURN TO UNSETTLED WEATHER FROM THE MID WEEK PERIOD ONWARD AS
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. AT THIS TIME...THE GREATER QPF AMOUNTS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR
WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...LFM
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM










000
FXUS61 KALY 182339
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
740 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER.  TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WILL BE COOL ACROSS THE REGION.  TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND CLOSE TO
SEASONABLE LEVELS FOR TUESDAY UNDER A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE.  A SLOW
MOVING STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD WITH CLOUDS
AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...MAINLY WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM EDT...A MAINLY CLEAR PLEASANT LATE SUMMER EVENING WITH
DEWPOINTS AROUND 50 (OR A LITTLE LESS). TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE
70S...EXCEPT ALREADY MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A
LIGHT NORTHWEST BREEZE PERSISTED IN MANY SPOTS.

THE WIND WILL DIMINISH TO NEARLY CALM AND SO WILL TEMPERATURES AS
THEY FALL THROUGH THE 60S DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

THE ONLY CHANGES IN THIS FORECAST WAS TO TWEAK THE HOURLY GRIDS.

THE MAIN CHALLENGE OVERNIGHT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG. THE
RECENT DEWPOINT DROP HAS STEADY OFF WHICH WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
NARROWING DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OVERNIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF A
MAINLY CLEAR SKY...LIGHT WINDS /AND A LONGER NOCTURNAL PERIOD/
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN PATCHY FOG. THIS WILL WELL HANDLED IN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST SO LITTLE CHANGES NEEDED. AS FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS...TEMPERATURES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DACKS MAY DIP BACK TO A
FEW UPPER 30S...WITH MOST LOCATIONS INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S INTO
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH AND RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN A RATHER NICE
TRANQUIL DAY SETTING UP FOR TUESDAY. AFTER ANY PATCHY FOG BURNS
OFF...A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED. MIXING LAYER HEIGHTS
PER THE BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE NEAR H875 WHERE +14C/+15C RESIDES. DRY
ADIABATIC DECENT FROM THIS MIXING LAYER HEIGHT YIELDS 75F-80F FOR
VALLEY LOCATIONS AND LOW-MID 70S FOR THE TERRAIN.

TUESDAY NIGHT...UPSTREAM SYSTEM CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND LIKELY
ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH
OUR WESTERN ZONES OVERNIGHT. THIS IS SEEN IN THE H900-H800 RH
LAYER IN THE NCEP MODEL SUITE. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN PLACE SO WE WILL WITHHOLD THE MENTION OF PRECIP AT THIS
TIME. AT THE MINIMUM...WE WILL INCREASE LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS AS
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE A BIT MILDER WITH A BLEND OF THE CURRENT
MOS GUIDANCE.

WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY TRACK EAST.
MEANWHILE...THE SURFACE HIGH WANTS TO EXTENDS ITS INFLUENCE ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND AND INTO EASTERN NEW YORK. THIS MAY DELAY FURTHER THE
ONSET OF PRECIP. THE ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS ON THE 325K SURFACE FROM
THE GFS/NAM SUGGEST WHILE LIFT WILL BE ONGOING...THE
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS /CPD/ REMAIN RATHER HIGH
THROUGH MOST OF AT LEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. WE WILL FURTHER SLOW
DOWN THE POP/WX ARRIVAL AND KEEP MOST OF OUR NEW ENGLAND COUNTIES
DRY. IF SOME BREAKS OF SUN DO OCCUR...VALLEY TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE ABLE TO CLIMB AT OR ABOVE 80F WITH 70S ELSEWHERE.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE ISENTROPIC LIFT...LOWERING CPD/S...AND
WEAK YET PERSISTENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL FAVOR AN INCREASE IN
POPS FOR MOST OF EASTERN NEW YORK /ALONG AND WEST OF THE HUDSON
RIVER/ AND STILL ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE FOR OUR NEW ENGLAND
COUNTIES. THE LATEST ECMWF IS EVEN STRONGER WITH A DRIER SIGNAL
ALONG AND EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER AS THE SURFACE HIGH IS A BIT
STRONGER. SO WE WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS FOR PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY...ADIRONDACKS AND SCHOHARIE VALLEY. WITH THE
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A LITTLE MILDER
AS WELL WITH MAINLY 50S EXPECTED FOR THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BEGIN UNSETTLED WITH IMPROVING WEATHER BY
NEXT WEEKEND.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...LONG RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT HANDLING THE SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION DURING
THE LATE WORK WEEK/WEEKEND PERIOD...WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. IT
NOW APPEARS THAT MUCH OF THE DAY THURSDAY WILL FEATURE A CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE SYNOPTIC FORCING WITH THIS
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE WEAK WITH NOT MUCH QPF EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY
THIS SYSTEM.

AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST THURSDAY
NIGHT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST
WITH THE ENTIRE REGION NOW EXPECTED TO BE DRY FRIDAY AS A REX BLOCK
SETS UP ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL
RESULT IN BEAUTIFUL WEEKEND WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION AND FOR THE
START OF NEXT WEEK WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE MID
50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS.

HOWEVER...AS WE REACH AROUND 06Z...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO FALL TO THE
PROJECTED CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S AT KPSF AND KGFL.
WITH VIRTUALLY NO WIND...AND FEW IF ANY SENSIBLE CLOUDS...IT LOOKS
AS IF RADIATIONAL FOG WILL FORM AT BOTH THESE SPOTS. WE ARE
FORECASTING IFR MIST (2SM BR) AT BOTH SITES...BEGINNING AT 06Z/KGFL
AND 08Z/KPSF.

AT KPOU AND KALB IT LOOKS AS OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL STAY AT OR JUST
ABOVE THE CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES. IN THESE SITES WE JUST INCLUDED
VCFG FOR NOW...TO EXPRESS A LOW PROBABILITY THAT MVFR OR IFR MIST
COULD HAPPEN (LESS THAN 25 PERCENT CHANCE).

ANY AND ALL FOG WILL BE GONE BY 12Z...LEAVING US WITH A VFR DAY WITH
UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY...A FEW-SCT CU CLOUDS WITH BASES WELL ABOVE
THE VFR/MVFR THRESHOLD. (4-6 KFT). THE WIND WILL BE VARIABLE TO N-NE
GENERALLY AROUND 5KTS.


OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SLIGHT CHC
TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE SHRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE SHRA...SLIGHT CHC
TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY-SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH FAVORABLE
DRYING CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...DEW FORMATION AT NIGHT WILL REMAIN
HIGH ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG FORMATION. WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT WITH A SLIGHT SOUTHEAST DIRECTION
EVOLVING TUESDAY AT SPEEDS LESS THAN 10 MPH.

RH TONIGHT WILL RECOVER TO VALUES AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT. THE
MINIMUM RH VALUES TUESDAY AFTERNOON ARE FORECAST TO RANGE BETWEEN
35 AND 45 PERCENT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS THIS WEEK.
FAIR AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY EVENING WITH A
RETURN TO UNSETTLED WEATHER FROM THE MID WEEK PERIOD ONWARD AS
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. AT THIS TIME...THE GREATER QPF AMOUNTS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR
WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...LFM
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM









000
FXUS61 KOKX 182305
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
705 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING DOWN FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST INTO
NEW ENGLAND LATER THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SEVERAL WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE PASS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING.
OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT
SHOULD PROMOTE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. A SHALLOW BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT WILL ENTER ERN CT AND LONG ISLAND LATE AND TURN FLOW
E-NE...TOO LATE TO HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON TEMPS. LOWS SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE INTERIOR VALLEYS...TO 60-65 IN NYC
METRO. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS OUTLYING AREAS AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHALLOW BACK DOOR FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM W-E EARLY IN
THE MORNING...TURNING LOW LEVEL FLOW EASTERLY AT FIRST...THEN SE
AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH SHIFTS SLIGHTLY E INTO NEW
ENGLAND AND ALSO LOCALLY VIA A SUPERIMPOSED SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION. HIGHS TEMPS ON TUE SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF
TODAY...EXCEPT A LITTLE COOLER IN THE UPPER 70S ACROSS LONG
ISLAND AND COASTAL CT WHERE MARITIME INFLUENCE WILL BE GREATER.

TUE NIGHT...SKIES WILL START OFF MOSTLY CLEAR...THEN BECOME PTCLDY
FROM NYC METRO WEST AS A LEAD SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF A WEAK CLOSED LOW
IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. A WEAK SFC LOW
PASSING OFF THE MID ATLC COAST SHOULD HAVE NO MORE EFFECT THAN TO
TURN WINDS BETWEEN IT AND THE HIGH TO THE NORTH MORE EASTERLY.
LOWS WILL BE MILDER THAN THOSE EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT...WITH 50S
INLAND AND MAINLY LOWER/MID 60S FOR NYC METRO AND THE COAST.

THERE WILL BE A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK AT THE OCEAN BEACHES ON
TUE...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHEAST AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA INTO
THE NORTHEAST AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM. UNDER THIS RIDGE...A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OVER THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THEN BECOMES BLOCKED
THIS WEEKEND AS RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA AND THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC TRAPPING THE UPPER LOW BETWEEN THESE TWO RIDGES. AT
THE SURFACE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND REMAIN THE DOMINANT
SURFACE FEATURE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED
BLOCKING PATTERN.

HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY AS NO REAL SUPPORT FOR
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. STILL HAVE CHANCE POPS ON THURSDAY WITH THE
UPPER LOW MOVING OVER THE REGION. POPS THEN LOWER TO SLIGHT CHANCE
FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LOW LINGERS JUST OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...WITH
SURFACE HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH...MUCH OF THE DAY SHOULD
REMAIN DRY. HAVE CONTINUED WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND AS
BEST SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS APPEARS TO REMAIN OFFSHORE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR JUST BELOW NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY AND FALL
TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. PERIODS OF CLOUD COVER AND AN EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE
SURFACE WINDS WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM RISING ABOVE 80 DEGREES
DURING THIS PERIOD. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE
60S.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THRU TUESDAY.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW THIS AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS BETWEEN 8-12 KT
WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KT. THE FLOW SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP
THE FLOW FROM BACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST OR SOUTH AT MOST LOCATIONS.
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS...ESPECIALLY AT JFK. COASTAL CT
TERMINALS HAVE ALREADY TURNED TO THE SOUTHWEST.

WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. TOMORROW...WINDS
INCREASE TO 8-10 KT FROM THE EAST-SOUTHEAST.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: CHANCE WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY. IF THIS
OCCURS...BEST TIMING WILL BE AFTER 20Z. AN OCCASIONAL GUST POSSIBLE.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CHANCE OF WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY LATE
THIS EVENING. AN OCCASIONAL GUSTS POSSIBLE.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY BECOME OCCASIONAL THIS AFTERNOON.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AN OCCASIONAL GUST POSSIBLE.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AN OCCASIONAL GUST POSSIBLE.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CHANCE OF WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY LATE
THIS EVENING. AN OCCASIONAL GUSTS POSSIBLE.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY...VFR.
.WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ISOLD SHRA/TSTM POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN
TERMINALS.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...CHANCE OF SHOWERS. MVFR POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
QUIET CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH FRI MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN
TO APPROACH SCA LEVELS LATE FRI...AND CONTINUE INTO SAT AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO INCREASE BETWEEN A DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW OVER THE ATLANTIC AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTH. WINDS MAY APPROACH 25 KT AND OCEAN SEAS MAY RANGE BETWEEN
5-7 FT BY LATE SAT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/MPS
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...GOODMAN/MET
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN










000
FXUS61 KOKX 182305
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
705 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING DOWN FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST INTO
NEW ENGLAND LATER THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SEVERAL WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE PASS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING.
OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT
SHOULD PROMOTE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. A SHALLOW BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT WILL ENTER ERN CT AND LONG ISLAND LATE AND TURN FLOW
E-NE...TOO LATE TO HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON TEMPS. LOWS SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE INTERIOR VALLEYS...TO 60-65 IN NYC
METRO. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS OUTLYING AREAS AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHALLOW BACK DOOR FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM W-E EARLY IN
THE MORNING...TURNING LOW LEVEL FLOW EASTERLY AT FIRST...THEN SE
AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH SHIFTS SLIGHTLY E INTO NEW
ENGLAND AND ALSO LOCALLY VIA A SUPERIMPOSED SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION. HIGHS TEMPS ON TUE SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF
TODAY...EXCEPT A LITTLE COOLER IN THE UPPER 70S ACROSS LONG
ISLAND AND COASTAL CT WHERE MARITIME INFLUENCE WILL BE GREATER.

TUE NIGHT...SKIES WILL START OFF MOSTLY CLEAR...THEN BECOME PTCLDY
FROM NYC METRO WEST AS A LEAD SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF A WEAK CLOSED LOW
IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. A WEAK SFC LOW
PASSING OFF THE MID ATLC COAST SHOULD HAVE NO MORE EFFECT THAN TO
TURN WINDS BETWEEN IT AND THE HIGH TO THE NORTH MORE EASTERLY.
LOWS WILL BE MILDER THAN THOSE EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT...WITH 50S
INLAND AND MAINLY LOWER/MID 60S FOR NYC METRO AND THE COAST.

THERE WILL BE A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK AT THE OCEAN BEACHES ON
TUE...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHEAST AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA INTO
THE NORTHEAST AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM. UNDER THIS RIDGE...A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OVER THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THEN BECOMES BLOCKED
THIS WEEKEND AS RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA AND THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC TRAPPING THE UPPER LOW BETWEEN THESE TWO RIDGES. AT
THE SURFACE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND REMAIN THE DOMINANT
SURFACE FEATURE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED
BLOCKING PATTERN.

HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY AS NO REAL SUPPORT FOR
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. STILL HAVE CHANCE POPS ON THURSDAY WITH THE
UPPER LOW MOVING OVER THE REGION. POPS THEN LOWER TO SLIGHT CHANCE
FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LOW LINGERS JUST OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...WITH
SURFACE HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH...MUCH OF THE DAY SHOULD
REMAIN DRY. HAVE CONTINUED WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND AS
BEST SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS APPEARS TO REMAIN OFFSHORE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR JUST BELOW NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY AND FALL
TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. PERIODS OF CLOUD COVER AND AN EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE
SURFACE WINDS WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM RISING ABOVE 80 DEGREES
DURING THIS PERIOD. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE
60S.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THRU TUESDAY.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW THIS AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS BETWEEN 8-12 KT
WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KT. THE FLOW SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP
THE FLOW FROM BACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST OR SOUTH AT MOST LOCATIONS.
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS...ESPECIALLY AT JFK. COASTAL CT
TERMINALS HAVE ALREADY TURNED TO THE SOUTHWEST.

WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. TOMORROW...WINDS
INCREASE TO 8-10 KT FROM THE EAST-SOUTHEAST.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: CHANCE WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY. IF THIS
OCCURS...BEST TIMING WILL BE AFTER 20Z. AN OCCASIONAL GUST POSSIBLE.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CHANCE OF WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY LATE
THIS EVENING. AN OCCASIONAL GUSTS POSSIBLE.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY BECOME OCCASIONAL THIS AFTERNOON.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AN OCCASIONAL GUST POSSIBLE.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AN OCCASIONAL GUST POSSIBLE.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CHANCE OF WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY LATE
THIS EVENING. AN OCCASIONAL GUSTS POSSIBLE.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY...VFR.
.WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ISOLD SHRA/TSTM POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN
TERMINALS.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...CHANCE OF SHOWERS. MVFR POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
QUIET CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH FRI MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN
TO APPROACH SCA LEVELS LATE FRI...AND CONTINUE INTO SAT AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO INCREASE BETWEEN A DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW OVER THE ATLANTIC AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTH. WINDS MAY APPROACH 25 KT AND OCEAN SEAS MAY RANGE BETWEEN
5-7 FT BY LATE SAT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/MPS
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...GOODMAN/MET
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN









000
FXUS61 KBOX 182257
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
657 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
REMAINING DRY AND SEASONABLE INTO WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY A COOLER
PATTERN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS /MAINLY OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND/. UNCERTAINTY
IN THE FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND WITH REGARDS TO THE PROXIMITY OF
A COASTAL LOW OFF OF NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
7 PM UPDATE...DIURNAL CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO DISSIPATE AND WILL
CONTINUE TO DO SO AS THE SUN SETS. OTHERWISE...LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S WILL DROP OFF. MADE A FEW MINOR
UPDATES BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

TONIGHT...

WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION WITH DRY AIR
AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS. WHILE SOME SCATTERED MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE
OVER SW NEW ENGLAND...OVERALL EXPECTING A PRETTY CHILLY NIGHT WITH
LOWS INTO THE LOW-50S. A FEW SPOTS WHICH CLIMATOLOGICALLY RADIATE
WELL /I.E. SHELTERED VALLEYS WITHIN THE CT-RIVER VALLEY...SW
MA...AND MARTHAS VINEYARD/ COULD SEE LOWS AROUND THE UPPER-40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...

GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT OF H5 RIDGE ENHANCEMENT W OF THE REGION AHEAD
OF A SYNOPTIC DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT
IN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN CONTROL WITH CONTINUED DRY AIR
AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...AS H85 TEMPERATURES WARM A COUPLE OF DEGREES
TO +10-12C.

WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD ALLOW FOR SEA-
BREEZES ALONG THE SHORES. SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS ANTICIPATED WITH
DAYTIME HEATING. WITH MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WARMING...ANTICIPATE
MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS AROUND THE UPPER-70S.

TUESDAY NIGHT...

WILL HOLD THE MID-ATLANTIC LOW PRESSURE DISTURBANCE S OF NEW
ENGLAND...PREVAILING WITH A W TO E MOTION THROUGH THE QUASI-ZONAL
FLOW. THIS REMOVES THE 18.09Z SREF FROM CONSIDERATION. FIGURE WITH
THE MULTITUDE OF SYSTEMS SURROUNDING THE NE-CONUS SHOULD KEEP THE
REGION BENEATH CONTINUED SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR.

ANTICIPATING A QUIET EVENING. PERHAPS SOME MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS
FILTER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE REGION OF DISTURBED WEATHER
S. OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS AND LIKELY ANOTHER OVERNIGHT PERIOD OF
CHILLY TEMPERATURES. LOWS AROUND THE MID-50S WITH A FEW LOCATIONS
THAT RADIATE OUT EFFECTIVELY FALLING INTO THE UPPER-40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK
* UNCERTAINTY INCREASES OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK ON THE
GENERAL PATTERN AS WELL AS THE SENSIBLE WEATHER. FOR THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...MODELS DIVERGE AS THE GFS TAKES ON A
MORE BLOCKY UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AND THE ECMWF REMAINS A BIT MORE
PROGRESSIVE. THIS RESULTS IN SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER THE
WEEKEND. BOTH MODELS HAVE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WHICH RESULTS IN THE COOLER...LESS
SEASONABLE WEATHER. THEN FOR THE WEEKEND...THE ECMWF MOVES THE
TROUGH OFFSHORE ALLOWING FOR A MORE PROGRESSIVE ZONAL FLOW WHILE
THE GFS KEEPS THE TROUGH ANCHORED OVER THE NORTHEAST. THIS ALSO
CREATES CHANGES IN THE SURFACE PATTERN. HIGH PRESSURE IN QUEBEC
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK SINKS SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
WEEKEND ON THE ECMWF PUSHING A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
MOVING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WELL OFFSHORE. THE HIGH IS
EVENTUALLY PUSHED EASTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK ALLOWING A COLD FRONT
TO PUSH THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE GFS MOVES THE HIGH
PRESSURE EASTWARD THIS WEEKEND INSTEAD WHICH ALLOWS LOW PRESSURE
TO MOVE UP THE COAST JUST OUTSIDE OF THE 40/70 BENCHMARK...
BRINGING RAIN TO MUCH OF THE REGION SUNDAY. GIVEN THIS IS AT THE
END OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST...WILL STICK WITH A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AND SEE WHERE FUTURE RUNS OF THE MODELS
TAKE US.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STICKS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN QUEBEC SINKING INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. SEASONABLE TO JUST BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY THAT A
FEW SHOWERS MAY BLEED INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY...BUT
IT IS EXPECTED THAT MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN IN NEW
YORK STATE.

THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS STATED ABOVE THIS IS WHERE
THE BULK OF THE UNCERTAINTY IS. SATURDAY SHOULD STILL BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES
AND DRY WEATHER. SUNDAY AND MONDAY HAVE THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF
SHOWERS OR RAIN AS EITHER A COLD FRONT OR A COASTAL LOW BRING
MOISTURE TO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD START TO WARM A FEW
DEGREES THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

00Z UPDATE...

TONIGHT...LIGHT N WINDS ANTICIPATED UNDER SKC. PATCHY MVFR-IFR
GROUND FOG IS POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS CONTINUE ALLOWING SEABREEZES TO
DEVELOP AROUND 14Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE EVENING. SCT CIGS
AROUND 5-6 KFT

TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY SKC WITH SOME FILTERING MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR. LOW
PROBABILITY OF PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

AN OVERALL THEME OF HIGH PRESSURE AND QUIET BOATING WEATHER.

S/SW-FLOW WILL DIMINISH INTO EVENING AS WINDS TURN OUT OF THE N.
SEA-BREEZES WASH-OUT ALONG THE NEAR-SHORES. WILL SEE THE RETURN
OF SE-WINDS TUESDAY TURNING N/NE INTO THE EVENING PERIOD...
STRENGTHENING 10-15 KTS IN RESPONSE TO A STORM SWEEPING OUT TO
SEA OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION.
LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY OVERNIGHT FOG LIMITING VISIBILITIES.
SEAS MAY INCREASE ON THE OUTER WATERS SATURDAY AS AN OCEAN STORM
PASSES WELL EAST OF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...RLG/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...RLG/SIPPRELL
MARINE...RLG/SIPPRELL




000
FXUS61 KBOX 182257
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
657 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
REMAINING DRY AND SEASONABLE INTO WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY A COOLER
PATTERN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS /MAINLY OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND/. UNCERTAINTY
IN THE FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND WITH REGARDS TO THE PROXIMITY OF
A COASTAL LOW OFF OF NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
7 PM UPDATE...DIURNAL CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO DISSIPATE AND WILL
CONTINUE TO DO SO AS THE SUN SETS. OTHERWISE...LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S WILL DROP OFF. MADE A FEW MINOR
UPDATES BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

TONIGHT...

WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION WITH DRY AIR
AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS. WHILE SOME SCATTERED MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE
OVER SW NEW ENGLAND...OVERALL EXPECTING A PRETTY CHILLY NIGHT WITH
LOWS INTO THE LOW-50S. A FEW SPOTS WHICH CLIMATOLOGICALLY RADIATE
WELL /I.E. SHELTERED VALLEYS WITHIN THE CT-RIVER VALLEY...SW
MA...AND MARTHAS VINEYARD/ COULD SEE LOWS AROUND THE UPPER-40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...

GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT OF H5 RIDGE ENHANCEMENT W OF THE REGION AHEAD
OF A SYNOPTIC DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT
IN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN CONTROL WITH CONTINUED DRY AIR
AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...AS H85 TEMPERATURES WARM A COUPLE OF DEGREES
TO +10-12C.

WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD ALLOW FOR SEA-
BREEZES ALONG THE SHORES. SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS ANTICIPATED WITH
DAYTIME HEATING. WITH MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WARMING...ANTICIPATE
MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS AROUND THE UPPER-70S.

TUESDAY NIGHT...

WILL HOLD THE MID-ATLANTIC LOW PRESSURE DISTURBANCE S OF NEW
ENGLAND...PREVAILING WITH A W TO E MOTION THROUGH THE QUASI-ZONAL
FLOW. THIS REMOVES THE 18.09Z SREF FROM CONSIDERATION. FIGURE WITH
THE MULTITUDE OF SYSTEMS SURROUNDING THE NE-CONUS SHOULD KEEP THE
REGION BENEATH CONTINUED SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR.

ANTICIPATING A QUIET EVENING. PERHAPS SOME MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS
FILTER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE REGION OF DISTURBED WEATHER
S. OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS AND LIKELY ANOTHER OVERNIGHT PERIOD OF
CHILLY TEMPERATURES. LOWS AROUND THE MID-50S WITH A FEW LOCATIONS
THAT RADIATE OUT EFFECTIVELY FALLING INTO THE UPPER-40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK
* UNCERTAINTY INCREASES OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK ON THE
GENERAL PATTERN AS WELL AS THE SENSIBLE WEATHER. FOR THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...MODELS DIVERGE AS THE GFS TAKES ON A
MORE BLOCKY UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AND THE ECMWF REMAINS A BIT MORE
PROGRESSIVE. THIS RESULTS IN SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER THE
WEEKEND. BOTH MODELS HAVE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WHICH RESULTS IN THE COOLER...LESS
SEASONABLE WEATHER. THEN FOR THE WEEKEND...THE ECMWF MOVES THE
TROUGH OFFSHORE ALLOWING FOR A MORE PROGRESSIVE ZONAL FLOW WHILE
THE GFS KEEPS THE TROUGH ANCHORED OVER THE NORTHEAST. THIS ALSO
CREATES CHANGES IN THE SURFACE PATTERN. HIGH PRESSURE IN QUEBEC
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK SINKS SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
WEEKEND ON THE ECMWF PUSHING A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
MOVING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WELL OFFSHORE. THE HIGH IS
EVENTUALLY PUSHED EASTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK ALLOWING A COLD FRONT
TO PUSH THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE GFS MOVES THE HIGH
PRESSURE EASTWARD THIS WEEKEND INSTEAD WHICH ALLOWS LOW PRESSURE
TO MOVE UP THE COAST JUST OUTSIDE OF THE 40/70 BENCHMARK...
BRINGING RAIN TO MUCH OF THE REGION SUNDAY. GIVEN THIS IS AT THE
END OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST...WILL STICK WITH A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AND SEE WHERE FUTURE RUNS OF THE MODELS
TAKE US.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STICKS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN QUEBEC SINKING INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. SEASONABLE TO JUST BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY THAT A
FEW SHOWERS MAY BLEED INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY...BUT
IT IS EXPECTED THAT MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN IN NEW
YORK STATE.

THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS STATED ABOVE THIS IS WHERE
THE BULK OF THE UNCERTAINTY IS. SATURDAY SHOULD STILL BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES
AND DRY WEATHER. SUNDAY AND MONDAY HAVE THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF
SHOWERS OR RAIN AS EITHER A COLD FRONT OR A COASTAL LOW BRING
MOISTURE TO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD START TO WARM A FEW
DEGREES THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

00Z UPDATE...

TONIGHT...LIGHT N WINDS ANTICIPATED UNDER SKC. PATCHY MVFR-IFR
GROUND FOG IS POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS CONTINUE ALLOWING SEABREEZES TO
DEVELOP AROUND 14Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE EVENING. SCT CIGS
AROUND 5-6 KFT

TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY SKC WITH SOME FILTERING MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR. LOW
PROBABILITY OF PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

AN OVERALL THEME OF HIGH PRESSURE AND QUIET BOATING WEATHER.

S/SW-FLOW WILL DIMINISH INTO EVENING AS WINDS TURN OUT OF THE N.
SEA-BREEZES WASH-OUT ALONG THE NEAR-SHORES. WILL SEE THE RETURN
OF SE-WINDS TUESDAY TURNING N/NE INTO THE EVENING PERIOD...
STRENGTHENING 10-15 KTS IN RESPONSE TO A STORM SWEEPING OUT TO
SEA OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION.
LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY OVERNIGHT FOG LIMITING VISIBILITIES.
SEAS MAY INCREASE ON THE OUTER WATERS SATURDAY AS AN OCEAN STORM
PASSES WELL EAST OF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...RLG/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...RLG/SIPPRELL
MARINE...RLG/SIPPRELL




000
FXUS61 KBOX 182257
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
657 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
REMAINING DRY AND SEASONABLE INTO WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY A COOLER
PATTERN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS /MAINLY OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND/. UNCERTAINTY
IN THE FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND WITH REGARDS TO THE PROXIMITY OF
A COASTAL LOW OFF OF NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
7 PM UPDATE...DIURNAL CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO DISSIPATE AND WILL
CONTINUE TO DO SO AS THE SUN SETS. OTHERWISE...LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S WILL DROP OFF. MADE A FEW MINOR
UPDATES BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

TONIGHT...

WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION WITH DRY AIR
AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS. WHILE SOME SCATTERED MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE
OVER SW NEW ENGLAND...OVERALL EXPECTING A PRETTY CHILLY NIGHT WITH
LOWS INTO THE LOW-50S. A FEW SPOTS WHICH CLIMATOLOGICALLY RADIATE
WELL /I.E. SHELTERED VALLEYS WITHIN THE CT-RIVER VALLEY...SW
MA...AND MARTHAS VINEYARD/ COULD SEE LOWS AROUND THE UPPER-40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...

GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT OF H5 RIDGE ENHANCEMENT W OF THE REGION AHEAD
OF A SYNOPTIC DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT
IN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN CONTROL WITH CONTINUED DRY AIR
AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...AS H85 TEMPERATURES WARM A COUPLE OF DEGREES
TO +10-12C.

WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD ALLOW FOR SEA-
BREEZES ALONG THE SHORES. SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS ANTICIPATED WITH
DAYTIME HEATING. WITH MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WARMING...ANTICIPATE
MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS AROUND THE UPPER-70S.

TUESDAY NIGHT...

WILL HOLD THE MID-ATLANTIC LOW PRESSURE DISTURBANCE S OF NEW
ENGLAND...PREVAILING WITH A W TO E MOTION THROUGH THE QUASI-ZONAL
FLOW. THIS REMOVES THE 18.09Z SREF FROM CONSIDERATION. FIGURE WITH
THE MULTITUDE OF SYSTEMS SURROUNDING THE NE-CONUS SHOULD KEEP THE
REGION BENEATH CONTINUED SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR.

ANTICIPATING A QUIET EVENING. PERHAPS SOME MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS
FILTER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE REGION OF DISTURBED WEATHER
S. OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS AND LIKELY ANOTHER OVERNIGHT PERIOD OF
CHILLY TEMPERATURES. LOWS AROUND THE MID-50S WITH A FEW LOCATIONS
THAT RADIATE OUT EFFECTIVELY FALLING INTO THE UPPER-40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK
* UNCERTAINTY INCREASES OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK ON THE
GENERAL PATTERN AS WELL AS THE SENSIBLE WEATHER. FOR THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...MODELS DIVERGE AS THE GFS TAKES ON A
MORE BLOCKY UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AND THE ECMWF REMAINS A BIT MORE
PROGRESSIVE. THIS RESULTS IN SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER THE
WEEKEND. BOTH MODELS HAVE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WHICH RESULTS IN THE COOLER...LESS
SEASONABLE WEATHER. THEN FOR THE WEEKEND...THE ECMWF MOVES THE
TROUGH OFFSHORE ALLOWING FOR A MORE PROGRESSIVE ZONAL FLOW WHILE
THE GFS KEEPS THE TROUGH ANCHORED OVER THE NORTHEAST. THIS ALSO
CREATES CHANGES IN THE SURFACE PATTERN. HIGH PRESSURE IN QUEBEC
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK SINKS SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
WEEKEND ON THE ECMWF PUSHING A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
MOVING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WELL OFFSHORE. THE HIGH IS
EVENTUALLY PUSHED EASTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK ALLOWING A COLD FRONT
TO PUSH THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE GFS MOVES THE HIGH
PRESSURE EASTWARD THIS WEEKEND INSTEAD WHICH ALLOWS LOW PRESSURE
TO MOVE UP THE COAST JUST OUTSIDE OF THE 40/70 BENCHMARK...
BRINGING RAIN TO MUCH OF THE REGION SUNDAY. GIVEN THIS IS AT THE
END OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST...WILL STICK WITH A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AND SEE WHERE FUTURE RUNS OF THE MODELS
TAKE US.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STICKS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN QUEBEC SINKING INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. SEASONABLE TO JUST BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY THAT A
FEW SHOWERS MAY BLEED INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY...BUT
IT IS EXPECTED THAT MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN IN NEW
YORK STATE.

THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS STATED ABOVE THIS IS WHERE
THE BULK OF THE UNCERTAINTY IS. SATURDAY SHOULD STILL BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES
AND DRY WEATHER. SUNDAY AND MONDAY HAVE THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF
SHOWERS OR RAIN AS EITHER A COLD FRONT OR A COASTAL LOW BRING
MOISTURE TO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD START TO WARM A FEW
DEGREES THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

00Z UPDATE...

TONIGHT...LIGHT N WINDS ANTICIPATED UNDER SKC. PATCHY MVFR-IFR
GROUND FOG IS POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS CONTINUE ALLOWING SEABREEZES TO
DEVELOP AROUND 14Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE EVENING. SCT CIGS
AROUND 5-6 KFT

TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY SKC WITH SOME FILTERING MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR. LOW
PROBABILITY OF PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

AN OVERALL THEME OF HIGH PRESSURE AND QUIET BOATING WEATHER.

S/SW-FLOW WILL DIMINISH INTO EVENING AS WINDS TURN OUT OF THE N.
SEA-BREEZES WASH-OUT ALONG THE NEAR-SHORES. WILL SEE THE RETURN
OF SE-WINDS TUESDAY TURNING N/NE INTO THE EVENING PERIOD...
STRENGTHENING 10-15 KTS IN RESPONSE TO A STORM SWEEPING OUT TO
SEA OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION.
LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY OVERNIGHT FOG LIMITING VISIBILITIES.
SEAS MAY INCREASE ON THE OUTER WATERS SATURDAY AS AN OCEAN STORM
PASSES WELL EAST OF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...RLG/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...RLG/SIPPRELL
MARINE...RLG/SIPPRELL




000
FXUS61 KBOX 182257
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
657 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
REMAINING DRY AND SEASONABLE INTO WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY A COOLER
PATTERN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS /MAINLY OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND/. UNCERTAINTY
IN THE FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND WITH REGARDS TO THE PROXIMITY OF
A COASTAL LOW OFF OF NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
7 PM UPDATE...DIURNAL CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO DISSIPATE AND WILL
CONTINUE TO DO SO AS THE SUN SETS. OTHERWISE...LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S WILL DROP OFF. MADE A FEW MINOR
UPDATES BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

TONIGHT...

WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION WITH DRY AIR
AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS. WHILE SOME SCATTERED MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE
OVER SW NEW ENGLAND...OVERALL EXPECTING A PRETTY CHILLY NIGHT WITH
LOWS INTO THE LOW-50S. A FEW SPOTS WHICH CLIMATOLOGICALLY RADIATE
WELL /I.E. SHELTERED VALLEYS WITHIN THE CT-RIVER VALLEY...SW
MA...AND MARTHAS VINEYARD/ COULD SEE LOWS AROUND THE UPPER-40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...

GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT OF H5 RIDGE ENHANCEMENT W OF THE REGION AHEAD
OF A SYNOPTIC DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT
IN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN CONTROL WITH CONTINUED DRY AIR
AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...AS H85 TEMPERATURES WARM A COUPLE OF DEGREES
TO +10-12C.

WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD ALLOW FOR SEA-
BREEZES ALONG THE SHORES. SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS ANTICIPATED WITH
DAYTIME HEATING. WITH MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WARMING...ANTICIPATE
MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS AROUND THE UPPER-70S.

TUESDAY NIGHT...

WILL HOLD THE MID-ATLANTIC LOW PRESSURE DISTURBANCE S OF NEW
ENGLAND...PREVAILING WITH A W TO E MOTION THROUGH THE QUASI-ZONAL
FLOW. THIS REMOVES THE 18.09Z SREF FROM CONSIDERATION. FIGURE WITH
THE MULTITUDE OF SYSTEMS SURROUNDING THE NE-CONUS SHOULD KEEP THE
REGION BENEATH CONTINUED SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR.

ANTICIPATING A QUIET EVENING. PERHAPS SOME MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS
FILTER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE REGION OF DISTURBED WEATHER
S. OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS AND LIKELY ANOTHER OVERNIGHT PERIOD OF
CHILLY TEMPERATURES. LOWS AROUND THE MID-50S WITH A FEW LOCATIONS
THAT RADIATE OUT EFFECTIVELY FALLING INTO THE UPPER-40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK
* UNCERTAINTY INCREASES OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK ON THE
GENERAL PATTERN AS WELL AS THE SENSIBLE WEATHER. FOR THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...MODELS DIVERGE AS THE GFS TAKES ON A
MORE BLOCKY UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AND THE ECMWF REMAINS A BIT MORE
PROGRESSIVE. THIS RESULTS IN SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER THE
WEEKEND. BOTH MODELS HAVE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WHICH RESULTS IN THE COOLER...LESS
SEASONABLE WEATHER. THEN FOR THE WEEKEND...THE ECMWF MOVES THE
TROUGH OFFSHORE ALLOWING FOR A MORE PROGRESSIVE ZONAL FLOW WHILE
THE GFS KEEPS THE TROUGH ANCHORED OVER THE NORTHEAST. THIS ALSO
CREATES CHANGES IN THE SURFACE PATTERN. HIGH PRESSURE IN QUEBEC
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK SINKS SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
WEEKEND ON THE ECMWF PUSHING A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
MOVING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WELL OFFSHORE. THE HIGH IS
EVENTUALLY PUSHED EASTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK ALLOWING A COLD FRONT
TO PUSH THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE GFS MOVES THE HIGH
PRESSURE EASTWARD THIS WEEKEND INSTEAD WHICH ALLOWS LOW PRESSURE
TO MOVE UP THE COAST JUST OUTSIDE OF THE 40/70 BENCHMARK...
BRINGING RAIN TO MUCH OF THE REGION SUNDAY. GIVEN THIS IS AT THE
END OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST...WILL STICK WITH A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AND SEE WHERE FUTURE RUNS OF THE MODELS
TAKE US.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STICKS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN QUEBEC SINKING INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. SEASONABLE TO JUST BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY THAT A
FEW SHOWERS MAY BLEED INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY...BUT
IT IS EXPECTED THAT MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN IN NEW
YORK STATE.

THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS STATED ABOVE THIS IS WHERE
THE BULK OF THE UNCERTAINTY IS. SATURDAY SHOULD STILL BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES
AND DRY WEATHER. SUNDAY AND MONDAY HAVE THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF
SHOWERS OR RAIN AS EITHER A COLD FRONT OR A COASTAL LOW BRING
MOISTURE TO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD START TO WARM A FEW
DEGREES THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

00Z UPDATE...

TONIGHT...LIGHT N WINDS ANTICIPATED UNDER SKC. PATCHY MVFR-IFR
GROUND FOG IS POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS CONTINUE ALLOWING SEABREEZES TO
DEVELOP AROUND 14Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE EVENING. SCT CIGS
AROUND 5-6 KFT

TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY SKC WITH SOME FILTERING MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR. LOW
PROBABILITY OF PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

AN OVERALL THEME OF HIGH PRESSURE AND QUIET BOATING WEATHER.

S/SW-FLOW WILL DIMINISH INTO EVENING AS WINDS TURN OUT OF THE N.
SEA-BREEZES WASH-OUT ALONG THE NEAR-SHORES. WILL SEE THE RETURN
OF SE-WINDS TUESDAY TURNING N/NE INTO THE EVENING PERIOD...
STRENGTHENING 10-15 KTS IN RESPONSE TO A STORM SWEEPING OUT TO
SEA OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION.
LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY OVERNIGHT FOG LIMITING VISIBILITIES.
SEAS MAY INCREASE ON THE OUTER WATERS SATURDAY AS AN OCEAN STORM
PASSES WELL EAST OF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...RLG/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...RLG/SIPPRELL
MARINE...RLG/SIPPRELL




000
FXUS61 KOKX 182008
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
408 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING DOWN FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST INTO
NEW ENGLAND LATER THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SEVERAL WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE PASS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SCT-BKN CU LATE THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT SHOULD
PROMOTE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. A SHALLOW BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
WILL ENTER ERN CT AND LONG ISLAND LATE AND TURN FLOW E-NE...TOO
LATE TO HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON TEMPS. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S IN THE INTERIOR VALLEYS...TO 60-65 IN NYC METRO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHALLOW BACK DOOR FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM W-E EARLY IN
THE MORNING...TURNING LOW LEVEL FLOW EASTERLY AT FIRST...THEN SE
AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH SHIFTS SLIGHTLY E INTO NEW
ENGLAND AND ALSO LOCALLY VIA A SUPERIMPOSED SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION. HIGHS TEMPS ON TUE SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF
TODAY...EXCEPT A LITTLE COOLER IN THE UPPER 70S ACROSS LONG
ISLAND AND COASTAL CT WHERE MARITIME INFLUENCE WILL BE GREATER.

TUE NIGHT...SKIES WILL START OFF MOSTLY CLEAR...THEN BECOME PTCLDY
FROM NYC METRO WEST AS A LEAD SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF A WEAK CLOSED LOW
IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. A WEAK SFC LOW
PASSING OFF THE MID ATLC COAST SHOULD HAVE NO MORE EFFECT THAN TO
TURN WINDS BETWEEN IT AND THE HIGH TO THE NORTH MORE EASTERLY.
LOWS WILL BE MILDER THAN THOSE EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT...WITH 50S
INLAND AND MAINLY LOWER/MID 60S FOR NYC METRO AND THE COAST.

THERE WILL BE A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK AT THE OCEAN BEACHES ON
TUE...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHEAST AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA INTO
THE NORTHEAST AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM. UNDER THIS RIDGE...A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OVER THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THEN BECOMES BLOCKED
THIS WEEKEND AS RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA AND THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC TRAPPING THE UPPER LOW BETWEEN THESE TWO RIDGES. AT
THE SURFACE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND REMAIN THE DOMINANT
SURFACE FEATURE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED
BLOCKING PATTERN.

HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY AS NO REAL SUPPORT FOR
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. STILL HAVE CHANCE POPS ON THURSDAY WITH THE
UPPER LOW MOVING OVER THE REGION. POPS THEN LOWER TO SLIGHT CHANCE
FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LOW LINGERS JUST OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...WITH
SURFACE HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH...MUCH OF THE DAY SHOULD
REMAIN DRY. HAVE CONTINUED WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND AS
BEST SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS APPEARS TO REMAIN OFFSHORE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR JUST BELOW NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY AND FALL
TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. PERIODS OF CLOUD COVER AND AN EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE
SURFACE WINDS WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM RISING ABOVE 80 DEGREES
DURING THIS PERIOD. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE
60S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THRU TUESDAY.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW THIS AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS BETWEEN 8-12 KT
WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KT. THE FLOW SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP
THE FLOW FROM BACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST OR SOUTH AT MOST LOCATIONS.
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS...ESPECIALLY AT JFK. COASTAL CT
TERMINALS HAVE ALREADY TURNED TO THE SOUTHWEST.

WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. TOMORROW...WINDS
INCREASE TO 8-10 KT FROM THE EAST-SOUTHEAST.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: CHANCE WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY. IF THIS
OCCURS...BEST TIMING WILL BE AFTER 20Z. AN OCCASIONAL GUST POSSIBLE.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CHANCE OF WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY LATE
THIS EVENING. AN OCCASIONAL GUSTS POSSIBLE.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY BECOME OCCASIONAL THIS AFTERNOON.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AN OCCASIONAL GUST POSSIBLE.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AN OCCASIONAL GUST POSSIBLE.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CHANCE OF WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY LATE
THIS EVENING. AN OCCASIONAL GUSTS POSSIBLE.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY...VFR.
.WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ISOLD SHRA/TSTM POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN
TERMINALS.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...CHANCE OF SHOWERS. MVFR POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
QUIET CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH FRI MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN
TO APPROACH SCA LEVELS LATE FRI...AND CONTINUE INTO SAT AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO INCREASE BETWEEN A DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW OVER THE ATLANTIC AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTH. WINDS MAY APPROACH 25 KT AND OCEAN SEAS MAY RANGE BETWEEN
5-7 FT BY LATE SAT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...GOODMAN/MET
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN






000
FXUS61 KOKX 181959
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
359 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING DOWN FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST INTO
NEW ENGLAND LATER THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SEVERAL WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE PASS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SCT-BKN CU LATE THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT SHOULD
PROMOTE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. A SHALLOW BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
WILL ENTER ERN CT AND LONG ISLAND LATE AND TURN FLOW E-NE...TOO
LATE TO HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON TEMPS. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S IN THE INTERIOR VALLEYS...TO 60-65 IN NYC METRO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHALLOW BACK DOOR FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM W-E EARLY IN
THE MORNING...TURNING LOW LEVEL FLOW EASTERLY AT FIRST...THEN SE
AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH SHIFTS SLIGHTLY E INTO NEW
ENGLAND AND ALSO LOCALLY VIA A SUPERIMPOSED SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION. HIGHS TEMPS ON TUE SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF
TODAY...EXCEPT A LITTLE COOLER IN THE UPPER 70S ACROSS LONG
ISLAND AND COASTAL CT WHERE MARITIME INFLUENCE WILL BE GREATER.

TUE NIGHT...SKIES WILL START OFF MOSTLY CLEAR...THEN BECOME PTCLDY
FROM NYC METRO WEST AS A LEAD SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF A WEAK CLOSED LOW
IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. A WEAK SFC LOW
PASSING OFF THE MID ATLC COAST SHOULD HAVE NO MORE EFFECT THAN TO
TURN WINDS BETWEEN IT AND THE HIGH TO THE NORTH MORE EASTERLY.
LOWS WILL BE MILDER THAN THOSE EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT...WITH 50S
INLAND AND MAINLY LOWER/MID 60S FOR NYC METRO AND THE COAST.

THERE WILL BE A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK AT THE OCEAN BEACHES ON
TUE...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHEAST AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA INTO
THE NORTHEAST AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM. UNDER THIS RIDGE...A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OVER THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THEN BECOMES BLOCKED
THIS WEEKEND AS RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA AND THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC TRAPPING THE UPPER LOW BETWEEN THESE TWO RIDGES. AT
THE SURFACE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND REMAIN THE DOMINANT
SURFACE FEATURE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED
BLOCKING PATTERN.

HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY AS NO REAL SUPPORT FOR
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. STILL HAVE CHANCE POPS ON THURSDAY WITH THE
UPPER LOW MOVING OVER THE REGION. POPS THEN LOWER TO SLIGHT CHANCE
FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LOW LINGERS JUST OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...WITH
SURFACE HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH...MUCH OF THE DAY SHOULD
REMAIN DRY. HAVE CONTINUED WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND AS
BEST SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS APPEARS TO REMAIN OFFSHORE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR JUST BELOW NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY AND FALL
TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. PERIODS OF CLOUD COVER AND AN EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE
SURFACE WINDS WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM RISING ABOVE 80 DEGREES
DURING THIS PERIOD. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE
60S.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THRU TUESDAY.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW WEAKENS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. VARIABLE WINDS
AND SEA BREEZE INFLUENCE THEN DEVELOPS. TRUE SEA BREEZE EXPECTED
LATE KJFK AND EVENTUALLY KLGA. WIND SPEEDS MAINLY BLW 10KT THRU THE
TAF PERIOD. A FEW GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KEWR.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SHIFTING WINDS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR
OR TWO. AN OCCASIONAL GUST POSSIBLE.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SHIFTING WINDS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR
OR TWO. AN OCCASIONAL GUST POSSIBLE.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SHIFTING WINDS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR
OR TWO. GUSTS MAY BECOME OCCASIONAL.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SHIFTING WINDS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR
OR TWO. AN OCCASIONAL GUST POSSIBLE.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS:TIMING OF SHIFTING WINDS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR
OR TWO. AN OCCASIONAL GUST POSSIBLE.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SHIFTING WINDS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR
OR TWO.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.TUESDAY...VFR.
.WEDNESDAY...ISOLD SHRA/TSTM POSSIBLE...MAINLY WESTERN TERMINALS.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...SCT SHRA/ISOLD TSTMS. MVFR OR LOWER
POSSIBLE.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...CHANCE OF SHOWERS. MVFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
QUIET CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH FRI MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN
TO APPROACH SCA LEVELS LATE FRI...AND CONTINUE INTO SAT AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO INCREASE BETWEEN A DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW OVER THE ATLANTIC AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTH. WINDS MAY APPROACH 25 KT AND OCEAN SEAS MAY RANGE BETWEEN
5-7 FT BY LATE SAT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...GOODMAN/MET
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN










000
FXUS61 KOKX 181959
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
359 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING DOWN FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST INTO
NEW ENGLAND LATER THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SEVERAL WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE PASS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SCT-BKN CU LATE THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT SHOULD
PROMOTE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. A SHALLOW BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
WILL ENTER ERN CT AND LONG ISLAND LATE AND TURN FLOW E-NE...TOO
LATE TO HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON TEMPS. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S IN THE INTERIOR VALLEYS...TO 60-65 IN NYC METRO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHALLOW BACK DOOR FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM W-E EARLY IN
THE MORNING...TURNING LOW LEVEL FLOW EASTERLY AT FIRST...THEN SE
AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH SHIFTS SLIGHTLY E INTO NEW
ENGLAND AND ALSO LOCALLY VIA A SUPERIMPOSED SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION. HIGHS TEMPS ON TUE SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF
TODAY...EXCEPT A LITTLE COOLER IN THE UPPER 70S ACROSS LONG
ISLAND AND COASTAL CT WHERE MARITIME INFLUENCE WILL BE GREATER.

TUE NIGHT...SKIES WILL START OFF MOSTLY CLEAR...THEN BECOME PTCLDY
FROM NYC METRO WEST AS A LEAD SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF A WEAK CLOSED LOW
IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. A WEAK SFC LOW
PASSING OFF THE MID ATLC COAST SHOULD HAVE NO MORE EFFECT THAN TO
TURN WINDS BETWEEN IT AND THE HIGH TO THE NORTH MORE EASTERLY.
LOWS WILL BE MILDER THAN THOSE EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT...WITH 50S
INLAND AND MAINLY LOWER/MID 60S FOR NYC METRO AND THE COAST.

THERE WILL BE A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK AT THE OCEAN BEACHES ON
TUE...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHEAST AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA INTO
THE NORTHEAST AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM. UNDER THIS RIDGE...A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OVER THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THEN BECOMES BLOCKED
THIS WEEKEND AS RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA AND THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC TRAPPING THE UPPER LOW BETWEEN THESE TWO RIDGES. AT
THE SURFACE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND REMAIN THE DOMINANT
SURFACE FEATURE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED
BLOCKING PATTERN.

HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY AS NO REAL SUPPORT FOR
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. STILL HAVE CHANCE POPS ON THURSDAY WITH THE
UPPER LOW MOVING OVER THE REGION. POPS THEN LOWER TO SLIGHT CHANCE
FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LOW LINGERS JUST OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...WITH
SURFACE HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH...MUCH OF THE DAY SHOULD
REMAIN DRY. HAVE CONTINUED WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND AS
BEST SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS APPEARS TO REMAIN OFFSHORE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR JUST BELOW NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY AND FALL
TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. PERIODS OF CLOUD COVER AND AN EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE
SURFACE WINDS WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM RISING ABOVE 80 DEGREES
DURING THIS PERIOD. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE
60S.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THRU TUESDAY.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW WEAKENS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. VARIABLE WINDS
AND SEA BREEZE INFLUENCE THEN DEVELOPS. TRUE SEA BREEZE EXPECTED
LATE KJFK AND EVENTUALLY KLGA. WIND SPEEDS MAINLY BLW 10KT THRU THE
TAF PERIOD. A FEW GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KEWR.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SHIFTING WINDS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR
OR TWO. AN OCCASIONAL GUST POSSIBLE.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SHIFTING WINDS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR
OR TWO. AN OCCASIONAL GUST POSSIBLE.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SHIFTING WINDS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR
OR TWO. GUSTS MAY BECOME OCCASIONAL.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SHIFTING WINDS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR
OR TWO. AN OCCASIONAL GUST POSSIBLE.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS:TIMING OF SHIFTING WINDS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR
OR TWO. AN OCCASIONAL GUST POSSIBLE.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SHIFTING WINDS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR
OR TWO.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.TUESDAY...VFR.
.WEDNESDAY...ISOLD SHRA/TSTM POSSIBLE...MAINLY WESTERN TERMINALS.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...SCT SHRA/ISOLD TSTMS. MVFR OR LOWER
POSSIBLE.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...CHANCE OF SHOWERS. MVFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
QUIET CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH FRI MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN
TO APPROACH SCA LEVELS LATE FRI...AND CONTINUE INTO SAT AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO INCREASE BETWEEN A DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW OVER THE ATLANTIC AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTH. WINDS MAY APPROACH 25 KT AND OCEAN SEAS MAY RANGE BETWEEN
5-7 FT BY LATE SAT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...GOODMAN/MET
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN










000
FXUS61 KOKX 181959
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
359 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING DOWN FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST INTO
NEW ENGLAND LATER THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SEVERAL WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE PASS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SCT-BKN CU LATE THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT SHOULD
PROMOTE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. A SHALLOW BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
WILL ENTER ERN CT AND LONG ISLAND LATE AND TURN FLOW E-NE...TOO
LATE TO HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON TEMPS. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S IN THE INTERIOR VALLEYS...TO 60-65 IN NYC METRO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHALLOW BACK DOOR FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM W-E EARLY IN
THE MORNING...TURNING LOW LEVEL FLOW EASTERLY AT FIRST...THEN SE
AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH SHIFTS SLIGHTLY E INTO NEW
ENGLAND AND ALSO LOCALLY VIA A SUPERIMPOSED SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION. HIGHS TEMPS ON TUE SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF
TODAY...EXCEPT A LITTLE COOLER IN THE UPPER 70S ACROSS LONG
ISLAND AND COASTAL CT WHERE MARITIME INFLUENCE WILL BE GREATER.

TUE NIGHT...SKIES WILL START OFF MOSTLY CLEAR...THEN BECOME PTCLDY
FROM NYC METRO WEST AS A LEAD SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF A WEAK CLOSED LOW
IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. A WEAK SFC LOW
PASSING OFF THE MID ATLC COAST SHOULD HAVE NO MORE EFFECT THAN TO
TURN WINDS BETWEEN IT AND THE HIGH TO THE NORTH MORE EASTERLY.
LOWS WILL BE MILDER THAN THOSE EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT...WITH 50S
INLAND AND MAINLY LOWER/MID 60S FOR NYC METRO AND THE COAST.

THERE WILL BE A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK AT THE OCEAN BEACHES ON
TUE...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHEAST AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA INTO
THE NORTHEAST AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM. UNDER THIS RIDGE...A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OVER THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THEN BECOMES BLOCKED
THIS WEEKEND AS RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA AND THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC TRAPPING THE UPPER LOW BETWEEN THESE TWO RIDGES. AT
THE SURFACE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND REMAIN THE DOMINANT
SURFACE FEATURE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED
BLOCKING PATTERN.

HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY AS NO REAL SUPPORT FOR
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. STILL HAVE CHANCE POPS ON THURSDAY WITH THE
UPPER LOW MOVING OVER THE REGION. POPS THEN LOWER TO SLIGHT CHANCE
FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LOW LINGERS JUST OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...WITH
SURFACE HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH...MUCH OF THE DAY SHOULD
REMAIN DRY. HAVE CONTINUED WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND AS
BEST SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS APPEARS TO REMAIN OFFSHORE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR JUST BELOW NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY AND FALL
TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. PERIODS OF CLOUD COVER AND AN EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE
SURFACE WINDS WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM RISING ABOVE 80 DEGREES
DURING THIS PERIOD. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE
60S.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THRU TUESDAY.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW WEAKENS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. VARIABLE WINDS
AND SEA BREEZE INFLUENCE THEN DEVELOPS. TRUE SEA BREEZE EXPECTED
LATE KJFK AND EVENTUALLY KLGA. WIND SPEEDS MAINLY BLW 10KT THRU THE
TAF PERIOD. A FEW GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KEWR.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SHIFTING WINDS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR
OR TWO. AN OCCASIONAL GUST POSSIBLE.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SHIFTING WINDS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR
OR TWO. AN OCCASIONAL GUST POSSIBLE.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SHIFTING WINDS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR
OR TWO. GUSTS MAY BECOME OCCASIONAL.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SHIFTING WINDS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR
OR TWO. AN OCCASIONAL GUST POSSIBLE.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS:TIMING OF SHIFTING WINDS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR
OR TWO. AN OCCASIONAL GUST POSSIBLE.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SHIFTING WINDS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR
OR TWO.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.TUESDAY...VFR.
.WEDNESDAY...ISOLD SHRA/TSTM POSSIBLE...MAINLY WESTERN TERMINALS.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...SCT SHRA/ISOLD TSTMS. MVFR OR LOWER
POSSIBLE.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...CHANCE OF SHOWERS. MVFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
QUIET CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH FRI MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN
TO APPROACH SCA LEVELS LATE FRI...AND CONTINUE INTO SAT AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO INCREASE BETWEEN A DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW OVER THE ATLANTIC AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTH. WINDS MAY APPROACH 25 KT AND OCEAN SEAS MAY RANGE BETWEEN
5-7 FT BY LATE SAT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...GOODMAN/MET
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN










000
FXUS61 KOKX 181959
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
359 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING DOWN FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST INTO
NEW ENGLAND LATER THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SEVERAL WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE PASS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SCT-BKN CU LATE THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT SHOULD
PROMOTE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. A SHALLOW BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
WILL ENTER ERN CT AND LONG ISLAND LATE AND TURN FLOW E-NE...TOO
LATE TO HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON TEMPS. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S IN THE INTERIOR VALLEYS...TO 60-65 IN NYC METRO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHALLOW BACK DOOR FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM W-E EARLY IN
THE MORNING...TURNING LOW LEVEL FLOW EASTERLY AT FIRST...THEN SE
AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH SHIFTS SLIGHTLY E INTO NEW
ENGLAND AND ALSO LOCALLY VIA A SUPERIMPOSED SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION. HIGHS TEMPS ON TUE SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF
TODAY...EXCEPT A LITTLE COOLER IN THE UPPER 70S ACROSS LONG
ISLAND AND COASTAL CT WHERE MARITIME INFLUENCE WILL BE GREATER.

TUE NIGHT...SKIES WILL START OFF MOSTLY CLEAR...THEN BECOME PTCLDY
FROM NYC METRO WEST AS A LEAD SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF A WEAK CLOSED LOW
IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. A WEAK SFC LOW
PASSING OFF THE MID ATLC COAST SHOULD HAVE NO MORE EFFECT THAN TO
TURN WINDS BETWEEN IT AND THE HIGH TO THE NORTH MORE EASTERLY.
LOWS WILL BE MILDER THAN THOSE EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT...WITH 50S
INLAND AND MAINLY LOWER/MID 60S FOR NYC METRO AND THE COAST.

THERE WILL BE A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK AT THE OCEAN BEACHES ON
TUE...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHEAST AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA INTO
THE NORTHEAST AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM. UNDER THIS RIDGE...A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OVER THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THEN BECOMES BLOCKED
THIS WEEKEND AS RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA AND THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC TRAPPING THE UPPER LOW BETWEEN THESE TWO RIDGES. AT
THE SURFACE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND REMAIN THE DOMINANT
SURFACE FEATURE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED
BLOCKING PATTERN.

HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY AS NO REAL SUPPORT FOR
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. STILL HAVE CHANCE POPS ON THURSDAY WITH THE
UPPER LOW MOVING OVER THE REGION. POPS THEN LOWER TO SLIGHT CHANCE
FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LOW LINGERS JUST OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...WITH
SURFACE HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH...MUCH OF THE DAY SHOULD
REMAIN DRY. HAVE CONTINUED WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND AS
BEST SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS APPEARS TO REMAIN OFFSHORE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR JUST BELOW NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY AND FALL
TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. PERIODS OF CLOUD COVER AND AN EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE
SURFACE WINDS WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM RISING ABOVE 80 DEGREES
DURING THIS PERIOD. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE
60S.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THRU TUESDAY.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW WEAKENS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. VARIABLE WINDS
AND SEA BREEZE INFLUENCE THEN DEVELOPS. TRUE SEA BREEZE EXPECTED
LATE KJFK AND EVENTUALLY KLGA. WIND SPEEDS MAINLY BLW 10KT THRU THE
TAF PERIOD. A FEW GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KEWR.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SHIFTING WINDS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR
OR TWO. AN OCCASIONAL GUST POSSIBLE.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SHIFTING WINDS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR
OR TWO. AN OCCASIONAL GUST POSSIBLE.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SHIFTING WINDS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR
OR TWO. GUSTS MAY BECOME OCCASIONAL.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SHIFTING WINDS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR
OR TWO. AN OCCASIONAL GUST POSSIBLE.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS:TIMING OF SHIFTING WINDS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR
OR TWO. AN OCCASIONAL GUST POSSIBLE.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SHIFTING WINDS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR
OR TWO.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.TUESDAY...VFR.
.WEDNESDAY...ISOLD SHRA/TSTM POSSIBLE...MAINLY WESTERN TERMINALS.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...SCT SHRA/ISOLD TSTMS. MVFR OR LOWER
POSSIBLE.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...CHANCE OF SHOWERS. MVFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
QUIET CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH FRI MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN
TO APPROACH SCA LEVELS LATE FRI...AND CONTINUE INTO SAT AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO INCREASE BETWEEN A DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW OVER THE ATLANTIC AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTH. WINDS MAY APPROACH 25 KT AND OCEAN SEAS MAY RANGE BETWEEN
5-7 FT BY LATE SAT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...GOODMAN/MET
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN










000
FXUS61 KOKX 181946
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
346 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING DOWN FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST INTO
NEW ENGLAND LATER THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SEVERAL WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE PASS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SCT-BKN CU LATE THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT SHOULD
PROMOTE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. A SHALLOW BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
WILL ENTER ERN CT AND LONG ISLAND LATE AND TURN FLOW E-NE...TOO
LATE TO HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON TEMPS. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S IN THE INTERIOR VALLEYS...TO 60-65 IN NYC METRO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHALLOW BACK DOOR FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM W-E EARLY IN
THE MORNING...TURNING LOW LEVEL FLOW EASTERLY AT FIRST...THEN SE
AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH SHIFTS SLIGHTLY E INTO NEW
ENGLAND AND ALSO LOCALLY VIA A SUPERIMPOSED SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION. HIGHS TEMPS ON TUE SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF
TODAY...EXCEPT A LITTLE COOLER IN THE UPPER 70S ACROSS LONG
ISLAND AND COASTAL CT WHERE MARITIME INFLUENCE WILL BE GREATER.

TUE NIGHT...SKIES WILL START OFF MOSTLY CLEAR...THEN BECOME PTCLDY
FROM NYC METRO WEST AS A LEAD SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF A WEAK CLOSED LOW
IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. A WEAK SFC LOW
PASSING OFF THE MID ATLC COAST SHOULD HAVE NO MORE EFFECT THAN TO
TURN WINDS BETWEEN IT AND THE HIGH TO THE NORTH MORE EASTERLY.
LOWS WILL BE MILDER THAN THOSE EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT...WITH 50S
INLAND AND MAINLY LOWER/MID 60S FOR NYC METRO AND THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHEAST AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA INTO
THE NORTHEAST AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM. UNDER THIS RIDGE...A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OVER THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THEN BECOMES BLOCKED
THIS WEEKEND AS RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA AND THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC TRAPPING THE UPPER LOW BETWEEN THESE TWO RIDGES. AT
THE SURFACE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND REMAIN THE DOMINANT
SURFACE FEATURE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED
BLOCKING PATTERN.

HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY AS NO REAL SUPPORT FOR
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. STILL HAVE CHANCE POPS ON THURSDAY WITH THE
UPPER LOW MOVING OVER THE REGION. POPS THEN LOWER TO SLIGHT CHANCE
FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LOW LINGERS JUST OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...WITH
SURFACE HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH...MUCH OF THE DAY SHOULD
REMAIN DRY. HAVE CONTINUED WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND AS
BEST SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS APPEARS TO REMAIN OFFSHORE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR JUST BELOW NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY AND FALL
TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. PERIODS OF CLOUD COVER AND AN EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE
SURFACE WINDS WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM RISING ABOVE 80 DEGREES
DURING THIS PERIOD. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE
60S.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THRU TUESDAY.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW WEAKENS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. VARIABLE WINDS
AND SEA BREEZE INFLUENCE THEN DEVELOPS. TRUE SEA BREEZE EXPECTED
LATE KJFK AND EVENTUALLY KLGA. WIND SPEEDS MAINLY BLW 10KT THRU THE
TAF PERIOD. A FEW GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KEWR.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SHIFTING WINDS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR
OR TWO. AN OCCASIONAL GUST POSSIBLE.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SHIFTING WINDS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR
OR TWO. AN OCCASIONAL GUST POSSIBLE.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SHIFTING WINDS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR
OR TWO. GUSTS MAY BECOME OCCASIONAL.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SHIFTING WINDS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR
OR TWO. AN OCCASIONAL GUST POSSIBLE.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS:TIMING OF SHIFTING WINDS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR
OR TWO. AN OCCASIONAL GUST POSSIBLE.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SHIFTING WINDS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR
OR TWO.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.TUESDAY...VFR.
.WEDNESDAY...ISOLD SHRA/TSTM POSSIBLE...MAINLY WESTERN TERMINALS.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...SCT SHRA/ISOLD TSTMS. MVFR OR LOWER
POSSIBLE.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...CHANCE OF SHOWERS. MVFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
QUIET CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH FRI MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN
TO APPROACH SCA LEVELS LATE FRI...AND CONTINUE INTO SAT AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO INCREASE BETWEEN A DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW OVER THE ATLANTIC AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTH. WINDS MAY APPROACH 25 KT AND OCEAN SEAS MAY RANGE BETWEEN
5-7 FT BY LATE SAT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...GOODMAN/MET
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN







000
FXUS61 KOKX 181946
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
346 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING DOWN FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST INTO
NEW ENGLAND LATER THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SEVERAL WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE PASS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SCT-BKN CU LATE THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT SHOULD
PROMOTE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. A SHALLOW BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
WILL ENTER ERN CT AND LONG ISLAND LATE AND TURN FLOW E-NE...TOO
LATE TO HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON TEMPS. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S IN THE INTERIOR VALLEYS...TO 60-65 IN NYC METRO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHALLOW BACK DOOR FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM W-E EARLY IN
THE MORNING...TURNING LOW LEVEL FLOW EASTERLY AT FIRST...THEN SE
AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH SHIFTS SLIGHTLY E INTO NEW
ENGLAND AND ALSO LOCALLY VIA A SUPERIMPOSED SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION. HIGHS TEMPS ON TUE SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF
TODAY...EXCEPT A LITTLE COOLER IN THE UPPER 70S ACROSS LONG
ISLAND AND COASTAL CT WHERE MARITIME INFLUENCE WILL BE GREATER.

TUE NIGHT...SKIES WILL START OFF MOSTLY CLEAR...THEN BECOME PTCLDY
FROM NYC METRO WEST AS A LEAD SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF A WEAK CLOSED LOW
IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. A WEAK SFC LOW
PASSING OFF THE MID ATLC COAST SHOULD HAVE NO MORE EFFECT THAN TO
TURN WINDS BETWEEN IT AND THE HIGH TO THE NORTH MORE EASTERLY.
LOWS WILL BE MILDER THAN THOSE EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT...WITH 50S
INLAND AND MAINLY LOWER/MID 60S FOR NYC METRO AND THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHEAST AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA INTO
THE NORTHEAST AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM. UNDER THIS RIDGE...A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OVER THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THEN BECOMES BLOCKED
THIS WEEKEND AS RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA AND THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC TRAPPING THE UPPER LOW BETWEEN THESE TWO RIDGES. AT
THE SURFACE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND REMAIN THE DOMINANT
SURFACE FEATURE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED
BLOCKING PATTERN.

HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY AS NO REAL SUPPORT FOR
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. STILL HAVE CHANCE POPS ON THURSDAY WITH THE
UPPER LOW MOVING OVER THE REGION. POPS THEN LOWER TO SLIGHT CHANCE
FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LOW LINGERS JUST OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...WITH
SURFACE HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH...MUCH OF THE DAY SHOULD
REMAIN DRY. HAVE CONTINUED WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND AS
BEST SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS APPEARS TO REMAIN OFFSHORE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR JUST BELOW NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY AND FALL
TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. PERIODS OF CLOUD COVER AND AN EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE
SURFACE WINDS WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM RISING ABOVE 80 DEGREES
DURING THIS PERIOD. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE
60S.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THRU TUESDAY.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW WEAKENS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. VARIABLE WINDS
AND SEA BREEZE INFLUENCE THEN DEVELOPS. TRUE SEA BREEZE EXPECTED
LATE KJFK AND EVENTUALLY KLGA. WIND SPEEDS MAINLY BLW 10KT THRU THE
TAF PERIOD. A FEW GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KEWR.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SHIFTING WINDS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR
OR TWO. AN OCCASIONAL GUST POSSIBLE.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SHIFTING WINDS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR
OR TWO. AN OCCASIONAL GUST POSSIBLE.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SHIFTING WINDS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR
OR TWO. GUSTS MAY BECOME OCCASIONAL.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SHIFTING WINDS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR
OR TWO. AN OCCASIONAL GUST POSSIBLE.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS:TIMING OF SHIFTING WINDS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR
OR TWO. AN OCCASIONAL GUST POSSIBLE.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SHIFTING WINDS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR
OR TWO.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.TUESDAY...VFR.
.WEDNESDAY...ISOLD SHRA/TSTM POSSIBLE...MAINLY WESTERN TERMINALS.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...SCT SHRA/ISOLD TSTMS. MVFR OR LOWER
POSSIBLE.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...CHANCE OF SHOWERS. MVFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
QUIET CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH FRI MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN
TO APPROACH SCA LEVELS LATE FRI...AND CONTINUE INTO SAT AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO INCREASE BETWEEN A DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW OVER THE ATLANTIC AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTH. WINDS MAY APPROACH 25 KT AND OCEAN SEAS MAY RANGE BETWEEN
5-7 FT BY LATE SAT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...GOODMAN/MET
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN







000
FXUS61 KOKX 181946
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
346 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING DOWN FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST INTO
NEW ENGLAND LATER THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SEVERAL WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE PASS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SCT-BKN CU LATE THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT SHOULD
PROMOTE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. A SHALLOW BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
WILL ENTER ERN CT AND LONG ISLAND LATE AND TURN FLOW E-NE...TOO
LATE TO HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON TEMPS. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S IN THE INTERIOR VALLEYS...TO 60-65 IN NYC METRO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHALLOW BACK DOOR FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM W-E EARLY IN
THE MORNING...TURNING LOW LEVEL FLOW EASTERLY AT FIRST...THEN SE
AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH SHIFTS SLIGHTLY E INTO NEW
ENGLAND AND ALSO LOCALLY VIA A SUPERIMPOSED SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION. HIGHS TEMPS ON TUE SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF
TODAY...EXCEPT A LITTLE COOLER IN THE UPPER 70S ACROSS LONG
ISLAND AND COASTAL CT WHERE MARITIME INFLUENCE WILL BE GREATER.

TUE NIGHT...SKIES WILL START OFF MOSTLY CLEAR...THEN BECOME PTCLDY
FROM NYC METRO WEST AS A LEAD SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF A WEAK CLOSED LOW
IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. A WEAK SFC LOW
PASSING OFF THE MID ATLC COAST SHOULD HAVE NO MORE EFFECT THAN TO
TURN WINDS BETWEEN IT AND THE HIGH TO THE NORTH MORE EASTERLY.
LOWS WILL BE MILDER THAN THOSE EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT...WITH 50S
INLAND AND MAINLY LOWER/MID 60S FOR NYC METRO AND THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHEAST AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA INTO
THE NORTHEAST AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM. UNDER THIS RIDGE...A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OVER THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THEN BECOMES BLOCKED
THIS WEEKEND AS RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA AND THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC TRAPPING THE UPPER LOW BETWEEN THESE TWO RIDGES. AT
THE SURFACE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND REMAIN THE DOMINANT
SURFACE FEATURE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED
BLOCKING PATTERN.

HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY AS NO REAL SUPPORT FOR
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. STILL HAVE CHANCE POPS ON THURSDAY WITH THE
UPPER LOW MOVING OVER THE REGION. POPS THEN LOWER TO SLIGHT CHANCE
FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LOW LINGERS JUST OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...WITH
SURFACE HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH...MUCH OF THE DAY SHOULD
REMAIN DRY. HAVE CONTINUED WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND AS
BEST SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS APPEARS TO REMAIN OFFSHORE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR JUST BELOW NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY AND FALL
TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. PERIODS OF CLOUD COVER AND AN EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE
SURFACE WINDS WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM RISING ABOVE 80 DEGREES
DURING THIS PERIOD. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE
60S.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THRU TUESDAY.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW WEAKENS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. VARIABLE WINDS
AND SEA BREEZE INFLUENCE THEN DEVELOPS. TRUE SEA BREEZE EXPECTED
LATE KJFK AND EVENTUALLY KLGA. WIND SPEEDS MAINLY BLW 10KT THRU THE
TAF PERIOD. A FEW GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KEWR.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SHIFTING WINDS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR
OR TWO. AN OCCASIONAL GUST POSSIBLE.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SHIFTING WINDS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR
OR TWO. AN OCCASIONAL GUST POSSIBLE.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SHIFTING WINDS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR
OR TWO. GUSTS MAY BECOME OCCASIONAL.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SHIFTING WINDS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR
OR TWO. AN OCCASIONAL GUST POSSIBLE.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS:TIMING OF SHIFTING WINDS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR
OR TWO. AN OCCASIONAL GUST POSSIBLE.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SHIFTING WINDS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR
OR TWO.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.TUESDAY...VFR.
.WEDNESDAY...ISOLD SHRA/TSTM POSSIBLE...MAINLY WESTERN TERMINALS.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...SCT SHRA/ISOLD TSTMS. MVFR OR LOWER
POSSIBLE.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...CHANCE OF SHOWERS. MVFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
QUIET CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH FRI MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN
TO APPROACH SCA LEVELS LATE FRI...AND CONTINUE INTO SAT AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO INCREASE BETWEEN A DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW OVER THE ATLANTIC AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTH. WINDS MAY APPROACH 25 KT AND OCEAN SEAS MAY RANGE BETWEEN
5-7 FT BY LATE SAT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...GOODMAN/MET
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN







000
FXUS61 KOKX 181946
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
346 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING DOWN FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST INTO
NEW ENGLAND LATER THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SEVERAL WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE PASS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SCT-BKN CU LATE THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT SHOULD
PROMOTE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. A SHALLOW BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
WILL ENTER ERN CT AND LONG ISLAND LATE AND TURN FLOW E-NE...TOO
LATE TO HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON TEMPS. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S IN THE INTERIOR VALLEYS...TO 60-65 IN NYC METRO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHALLOW BACK DOOR FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM W-E EARLY IN
THE MORNING...TURNING LOW LEVEL FLOW EASTERLY AT FIRST...THEN SE
AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH SHIFTS SLIGHTLY E INTO NEW
ENGLAND AND ALSO LOCALLY VIA A SUPERIMPOSED SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION. HIGHS TEMPS ON TUE SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF
TODAY...EXCEPT A LITTLE COOLER IN THE UPPER 70S ACROSS LONG
ISLAND AND COASTAL CT WHERE MARITIME INFLUENCE WILL BE GREATER.

TUE NIGHT...SKIES WILL START OFF MOSTLY CLEAR...THEN BECOME PTCLDY
FROM NYC METRO WEST AS A LEAD SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF A WEAK CLOSED LOW
IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. A WEAK SFC LOW
PASSING OFF THE MID ATLC COAST SHOULD HAVE NO MORE EFFECT THAN TO
TURN WINDS BETWEEN IT AND THE HIGH TO THE NORTH MORE EASTERLY.
LOWS WILL BE MILDER THAN THOSE EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT...WITH 50S
INLAND AND MAINLY LOWER/MID 60S FOR NYC METRO AND THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHEAST AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA INTO
THE NORTHEAST AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM. UNDER THIS RIDGE...A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OVER THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THEN BECOMES BLOCKED
THIS WEEKEND AS RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA AND THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC TRAPPING THE UPPER LOW BETWEEN THESE TWO RIDGES. AT
THE SURFACE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND REMAIN THE DOMINANT
SURFACE FEATURE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED
BLOCKING PATTERN.

HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY AS NO REAL SUPPORT FOR
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. STILL HAVE CHANCE POPS ON THURSDAY WITH THE
UPPER LOW MOVING OVER THE REGION. POPS THEN LOWER TO SLIGHT CHANCE
FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LOW LINGERS JUST OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...WITH
SURFACE HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH...MUCH OF THE DAY SHOULD
REMAIN DRY. HAVE CONTINUED WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND AS
BEST SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS APPEARS TO REMAIN OFFSHORE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR JUST BELOW NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY AND FALL
TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. PERIODS OF CLOUD COVER AND AN EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE
SURFACE WINDS WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM RISING ABOVE 80 DEGREES
DURING THIS PERIOD. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE
60S.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THRU TUESDAY.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW WEAKENS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. VARIABLE WINDS
AND SEA BREEZE INFLUENCE THEN DEVELOPS. TRUE SEA BREEZE EXPECTED
LATE KJFK AND EVENTUALLY KLGA. WIND SPEEDS MAINLY BLW 10KT THRU THE
TAF PERIOD. A FEW GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KEWR.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SHIFTING WINDS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR
OR TWO. AN OCCASIONAL GUST POSSIBLE.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SHIFTING WINDS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR
OR TWO. AN OCCASIONAL GUST POSSIBLE.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SHIFTING WINDS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR
OR TWO. GUSTS MAY BECOME OCCASIONAL.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SHIFTING WINDS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR
OR TWO. AN OCCASIONAL GUST POSSIBLE.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS:TIMING OF SHIFTING WINDS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR
OR TWO. AN OCCASIONAL GUST POSSIBLE.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SHIFTING WINDS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR
OR TWO.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.TUESDAY...VFR.
.WEDNESDAY...ISOLD SHRA/TSTM POSSIBLE...MAINLY WESTERN TERMINALS.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...SCT SHRA/ISOLD TSTMS. MVFR OR LOWER
POSSIBLE.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...CHANCE OF SHOWERS. MVFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
QUIET CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH FRI MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN
TO APPROACH SCA LEVELS LATE FRI...AND CONTINUE INTO SAT AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO INCREASE BETWEEN A DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW OVER THE ATLANTIC AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTH. WINDS MAY APPROACH 25 KT AND OCEAN SEAS MAY RANGE BETWEEN
5-7 FT BY LATE SAT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...GOODMAN/MET
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN







000
FXUS61 KBOX 181918
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
318 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

REMAINING DRY AND SEASONABLE INTO WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY A COOLER
PATTERN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS /MAINLY OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND/. UNCERTAINTY
IN THE FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND WITH REGARDS TO THE PROXIMITY OF
A COASTAL LOW OFF OF NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

INTO EVENING...

WILL SEE NW-WINDS BEGIN TO DIMINISH AS SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE SHORELINE WASHOUT. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD DECKS WILL
BEGIN TO DISSIPATE MAKING WAY FOR MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS.

TONIGHT...

WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION WITH DRY AIR
AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS. WHILE SOME SCATTERED MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE
OVER SW NEW ENGLAND...OVERALL EXPECTING A PRETTY CHILLY NIGHT WITH
LOWS INTO THE LOW-50S. A FEW SPOTS WHICH CLIMATOLOGICALLY RADIATE
WELL /I.E. SHELTERED VALLEYS WITHIN THE CT-RIVER VALLEY...SW
MA...AND MARTHAS VINEYARD/ COULD SEE LOWS AROUND THE UPPER-40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

TUESDAY...

GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT OF H5 RIDGE ENHANCEMENT W OF THE REGION AHEAD
OF A SYNOPTIC DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT
IN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN CONTROL WITH CONTINUED DRY AIR
AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...AS H85 TEMPERATURES WARM A COUPLE OF DEGREES
TO +10-12C.

WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD ALLOW FOR SEA-
BREEZES ALONG THE SHORES. SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS ANTICIPATED WITH
DAYTIME HEATING. WITH MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WARMING...ANTICIPATE
MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS AROUND THE UPPER-70S.


TUESDAY NIGHT...

WILL HOLD THE MID-ATLANTIC LOW PRESSURE DISTURBANCE S OF NEW
ENGLAND...PREVAILING WITH A W TO E MOTION THROUGH THE QUASI-ZONAL
FLOW. THIS REMOVES THE 18.09Z SREF FROM CONSIDERATION. FIGURE WITH
THE MULTITUDE OF SYSTEMS SURROUNDING THE NE-CONUS SHOULD KEEP THE
REGION BENEATH CONTINUED SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR.

ANTICIPATING A QUIET EVENING. PERHAPS SOME MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS
FILTER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE REGION OF DISTURBED WEATHER
S. OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS AND LIKELY ANOTHER OVERNIGHT PERIOD OF
CHILLY TEMPERATURES. LOWS AROUND THE MID-50S WITH A FEW LOCATIONS
THAT RADIATE OUT EFFECTIVELY FALLING INTO THE UPPER-40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK
* UNCERTAINTY INCREASES OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK ON THE
GENERAL PATTERN AS WELL AS THE SENSIBLE WEATHER. FOR THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...MODELS DIVERGE AS THE GFS TAKES ON A
MORE BLOCKY UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AND THE ECMWF REMAINS A BIT MORE
PROGRESSIVE. THIS RESULTS IN SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER THE
WEEKEND. BOTH MODELS HAVE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WHICH RESULTS IN THE COOLER...LESS
SEASONABLE WEATHER. THEN FOR THE WEEKEND...THE ECMWF MOVES THE
TROUGH OFFSHORE ALLOWING FOR A MORE PROGRESSIVE ZONAL FLOW WHILE
THE GFS KEEPS THE TROUGH ANCHORED OVER THE NORTHEAST. THIS ALSO
CREATES CHANGES IN THE SURFACE PATTERN. HIGH PRESSURE IN QUEBEC
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK SINKS SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
WEEKEND ON THE ECMWF PUSHING A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
MOVING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WELL OFFSHORE. THE HIGH IS
EVENTUALLY PUSHED EASTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK ALLOWING A COLD FRONT
TO PUSH THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE GFS MOVES THE HIGH
PRESSURE EASTWARD THIS WEEKEND INSTEAD WHICH ALLOWS LOW PRESSURE
TO MOVE UP THE COAST JUST OUTSIDE OF THE 40/70 BENCHMARK...
BRINGING RAIN TO MUCH OF THE REGION SUNDAY. GIVEN THIS IS AT THE
END OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST...WILL STICK WITH A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AND SEE WHERE FUTURE RUNS OF THE MODELS
TAKE US.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STICKS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN QUEBEC SINKING INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. SEASONABLE TO JUST BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY THAT A
FEW SHOWERS MAY BLEED INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY...BUT
IT IS EXPECTED THAT MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN IN NEW
YORK STATE.

THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS STATED ABOVE THIS IS WHERE
THE BULK OF THE UNCERTAINTY IS. SATURDAY SHOULD STILL BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES
AND DRY WEATHER. SUNDAY AND MONDAY HAVE THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF
SHOWERS OR RAIN AS EITHER A COLD FRONT OR A COASTAL LOW BRING
MOISTURE TO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD START TO WARM A FEW
DEGREES THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

18Z UPDATE...

VFR. NW WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS ACROSS THE INTERIOR. SEA-
BREEZE ACTIVITY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SHORELINES FROM NOW UNTIL 22Z.
WINDS LIKELY TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH SEA-BREEZE INCURSION.
SCT-BKN CIGS AROUND 5-6 KFT.

OVERNIGHT...LIGHT N WINDS ANTICIPATED UNDER SKC. PATCHY MVFR-IFR
GROUND FOG IS POSSIBLE. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY ALLOWING SEA-BREEZE ENCROACHMENT BEGINNING AROUND 14Z...
WASHING OUT INTO OVERNIGHT HOURS. SCT CIGS AROUND 5-6 KFT DURING
THE DAY...MAINLY SKC INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SOME FILTERING
MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WEAKENING NW-FLOW IN AND
AROUND THE TERMINAL INDICATES POTENTIAL SEA-BREEZE SETUP TOWARDS
20Z. SEA-BREEZE MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE TERMINAL...PERHAPS
PARKING OVER THE E-END OF RUNWAYS.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR. LOW
PROBABILITY OF PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

AN OVERALL THEME OF HIGH PRESSURE AND QUIET BOATING WEATHER.

S/SW-FLOW WILL DIMINISH INTO EVENING AS WINDS TURN OUT OF THE N.
SEA-BREEZES WASH-OUT ALONG THE NEAR-SHORES. WILL SEE THE RETURN
OF SE-WINDS TUESDAY TURNING N/NE INTO THE EVENING PERIOD...
STRENGTHENING 10-15 KTS IN RESPONSE TO A STORM SWEEPING OUT TO
SEA OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION.
LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY OVERNIGHT FOG LIMITING VISIBILITIES.
SEAS MAY INCREASE ON THE OUTER WATERS SATURDAY AS AN OCEAN STORM
PASSES WELL EAST OF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RLG/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...RLG/SIPPRELL
MARINE...RLG/SIPPRELL



000
FXUS61 KBOX 181918
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
318 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

REMAINING DRY AND SEASONABLE INTO WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY A COOLER
PATTERN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS /MAINLY OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND/. UNCERTAINTY
IN THE FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND WITH REGARDS TO THE PROXIMITY OF
A COASTAL LOW OFF OF NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

INTO EVENING...

WILL SEE NW-WINDS BEGIN TO DIMINISH AS SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE SHORELINE WASHOUT. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD DECKS WILL
BEGIN TO DISSIPATE MAKING WAY FOR MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS.

TONIGHT...

WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION WITH DRY AIR
AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS. WHILE SOME SCATTERED MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE
OVER SW NEW ENGLAND...OVERALL EXPECTING A PRETTY CHILLY NIGHT WITH
LOWS INTO THE LOW-50S. A FEW SPOTS WHICH CLIMATOLOGICALLY RADIATE
WELL /I.E. SHELTERED VALLEYS WITHIN THE CT-RIVER VALLEY...SW
MA...AND MARTHAS VINEYARD/ COULD SEE LOWS AROUND THE UPPER-40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

TUESDAY...

GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT OF H5 RIDGE ENHANCEMENT W OF THE REGION AHEAD
OF A SYNOPTIC DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT
IN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN CONTROL WITH CONTINUED DRY AIR
AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...AS H85 TEMPERATURES WARM A COUPLE OF DEGREES
TO +10-12C.

WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD ALLOW FOR SEA-
BREEZES ALONG THE SHORES. SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS ANTICIPATED WITH
DAYTIME HEATING. WITH MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WARMING...ANTICIPATE
MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS AROUND THE UPPER-70S.


TUESDAY NIGHT...

WILL HOLD THE MID-ATLANTIC LOW PRESSURE DISTURBANCE S OF NEW
ENGLAND...PREVAILING WITH A W TO E MOTION THROUGH THE QUASI-ZONAL
FLOW. THIS REMOVES THE 18.09Z SREF FROM CONSIDERATION. FIGURE WITH
THE MULTITUDE OF SYSTEMS SURROUNDING THE NE-CONUS SHOULD KEEP THE
REGION BENEATH CONTINUED SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR.

ANTICIPATING A QUIET EVENING. PERHAPS SOME MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS
FILTER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE REGION OF DISTURBED WEATHER
S. OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS AND LIKELY ANOTHER OVERNIGHT PERIOD OF
CHILLY TEMPERATURES. LOWS AROUND THE MID-50S WITH A FEW LOCATIONS
THAT RADIATE OUT EFFECTIVELY FALLING INTO THE UPPER-40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK
* UNCERTAINTY INCREASES OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK ON THE
GENERAL PATTERN AS WELL AS THE SENSIBLE WEATHER. FOR THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...MODELS DIVERGE AS THE GFS TAKES ON A
MORE BLOCKY UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AND THE ECMWF REMAINS A BIT MORE
PROGRESSIVE. THIS RESULTS IN SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER THE
WEEKEND. BOTH MODELS HAVE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WHICH RESULTS IN THE COOLER...LESS
SEASONABLE WEATHER. THEN FOR THE WEEKEND...THE ECMWF MOVES THE
TROUGH OFFSHORE ALLOWING FOR A MORE PROGRESSIVE ZONAL FLOW WHILE
THE GFS KEEPS THE TROUGH ANCHORED OVER THE NORTHEAST. THIS ALSO
CREATES CHANGES IN THE SURFACE PATTERN. HIGH PRESSURE IN QUEBEC
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK SINKS SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
WEEKEND ON THE ECMWF PUSHING A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
MOVING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WELL OFFSHORE. THE HIGH IS
EVENTUALLY PUSHED EASTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK ALLOWING A COLD FRONT
TO PUSH THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE GFS MOVES THE HIGH
PRESSURE EASTWARD THIS WEEKEND INSTEAD WHICH ALLOWS LOW PRESSURE
TO MOVE UP THE COAST JUST OUTSIDE OF THE 40/70 BENCHMARK...
BRINGING RAIN TO MUCH OF THE REGION SUNDAY. GIVEN THIS IS AT THE
END OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST...WILL STICK WITH A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AND SEE WHERE FUTURE RUNS OF THE MODELS
TAKE US.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STICKS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN QUEBEC SINKING INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. SEASONABLE TO JUST BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY THAT A
FEW SHOWERS MAY BLEED INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY...BUT
IT IS EXPECTED THAT MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN IN NEW
YORK STATE.

THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS STATED ABOVE THIS IS WHERE
THE BULK OF THE UNCERTAINTY IS. SATURDAY SHOULD STILL BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES
AND DRY WEATHER. SUNDAY AND MONDAY HAVE THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF
SHOWERS OR RAIN AS EITHER A COLD FRONT OR A COASTAL LOW BRING
MOISTURE TO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD START TO WARM A FEW
DEGREES THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

18Z UPDATE...

VFR. NW WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS ACROSS THE INTERIOR. SEA-
BREEZE ACTIVITY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SHORELINES FROM NOW UNTIL 22Z.
WINDS LIKELY TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH SEA-BREEZE INCURSION.
SCT-BKN CIGS AROUND 5-6 KFT.

OVERNIGHT...LIGHT N WINDS ANTICIPATED UNDER SKC. PATCHY MVFR-IFR
GROUND FOG IS POSSIBLE. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY ALLOWING SEA-BREEZE ENCROACHMENT BEGINNING AROUND 14Z...
WASHING OUT INTO OVERNIGHT HOURS. SCT CIGS AROUND 5-6 KFT DURING
THE DAY...MAINLY SKC INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SOME FILTERING
MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WEAKENING NW-FLOW IN AND
AROUND THE TERMINAL INDICATES POTENTIAL SEA-BREEZE SETUP TOWARDS
20Z. SEA-BREEZE MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE TERMINAL...PERHAPS
PARKING OVER THE E-END OF RUNWAYS.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR. LOW
PROBABILITY OF PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

AN OVERALL THEME OF HIGH PRESSURE AND QUIET BOATING WEATHER.

S/SW-FLOW WILL DIMINISH INTO EVENING AS WINDS TURN OUT OF THE N.
SEA-BREEZES WASH-OUT ALONG THE NEAR-SHORES. WILL SEE THE RETURN
OF SE-WINDS TUESDAY TURNING N/NE INTO THE EVENING PERIOD...
STRENGTHENING 10-15 KTS IN RESPONSE TO A STORM SWEEPING OUT TO
SEA OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION.
LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY OVERNIGHT FOG LIMITING VISIBILITIES.
SEAS MAY INCREASE ON THE OUTER WATERS SATURDAY AS AN OCEAN STORM
PASSES WELL EAST OF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RLG/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...RLG/SIPPRELL
MARINE...RLG/SIPPRELL




000
FXUS61 KALY 181913
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
313 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER.  TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WILL BE COOL ACROSS THE REGION.  TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND CLOSE TO
SEASONABLE LEVELS FOR TUESDAY UNDER A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE.  A SLOW
MOVING STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD WITH CLOUDS
AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...MAINLY WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT...CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE REGION
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTING FURTHER NORTH AND EAST AWAY FROM THE
REGION. SURFACE HIGH /1016MB PER MSAS/ PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY ENHANCE ITS INFLUENCE WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THE CLEARING
TREND TO CONTINUE TONIGHT. THE MAIN CHALLENGE OVERNIGHT WILL BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG. THE RECENT DEWPOINT DROP HAS STEADY OFF
WHICH WILL SET THE STAGE FOR NARROWING DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
OVERNIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS /AND A
LONGER NOCTURNAL PERIOD/ WILL LIKELY RESULT IN PATCHY FOG. THIS
WILL WELL HANDLED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST SO LITTLE CHANGES
NEEDED. AS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...TEMPERATURES ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE DACKS MAY DIP BACK TO A FEW UPPER 30S...WITH MOST LOCATIONS
INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH AND RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN A RATHER NICE
TRANQUIL DAY SETTING UP FOR TUESDAY. AFTER ANY PATCHY FOG BURNS
OFF...A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED. MIXING LAYER HEIGHTS
PER THE BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE NEAR H875 WHERE +14C/+15C RESIDES. DRY
ADIABATIC DECENT FROM THIS MIXING LAYER HEIGHT YIELDS 75F-80F FOR
VALLEY LOCATIONS AND LOW-MID 70S FOR THE TERRAIN.

TUESDAY NIGHT...UPSTREAM SYSTEM CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND LIKELY
ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH
OUR WESTERN ZONES OVERNIGHT. THIS IS SEEN IN THE H900-H800 RH
LAYER IN THE NCEP MODEL SUITE. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN PLACE SO WE WILL WITHHOLD THE MENTION OF PRECIP AT THIS
TIME. AT THE MINIMUM...WE WILL INCREASE LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS AS
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE A BIT MILDER WITH A BLEND OF THE CURRENT
MOS GUIDANCE.

WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY TRACK EAST.
MEANWHILE...THE SURFACE HIGH WANTS TO EXTENDS ITS INFLUENCE ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND AND INTO EASTERN NEW YORK. THIS MAY DELAY FURTHER THE
ONSET OF PRECIP. THE ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS ON THE 325K SURFACE FROM
THE GFS/NAM SUGGEST WHILE LIFT WILL BE ONGOING...THE
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS /CPD/ REMAIN RATHER HIGH
THROUGH MOST OF AT LEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. WE WILL FURTHER SLOW
DOWN THE POP/WX ARRIVAL AND KEEP MOST OF OUR NEW ENGLAND COUNTIES
DRY. IF SOME BREAKS OF SUN DO OCCUR...VALLEY TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE ABLE TO CLIMB AT OR ABOVE 80F WITH 70S ELSEWHERE.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE ISENTROPIC LIFT...LOWERING CPD/S...AND
WEAK YET PERSISTENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL FAVOR AN INCREASE IN
POPS FOR MOST OF EASTERN NEW YORK /ALONG AND WEST OF THE HUDSON
RIVER/ AND STILL ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE FOR OUR NEW ENGLAND
COUNTIES. THE LATEST ECMWF IS EVEN STRONGER WITH A DRIER SIGNAL
ALONG AND EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER AS THE SURFACE HIGH IS A BIT
STRONGER. SO WE WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS FOR PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY...ADIRONDACKS AND SCHOHARIE VALLEY. WITH THE
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A LITTLE MILDER
AS WELL WITH MAINLY 50S EXPECTED FOR THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BEGIN UNSETTLED WITH IMPROVING WEATHER BY
NEXT WEEKEND.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...LONG RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT HANDLING THE SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION DURING
THE LATE WORK WEEK/WEEKEND PERIOD...WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. IT
NOW APPEARS THAT MUCH OF THE DAY THURSDAY WILL FEATURE A CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE SYNOPTIC FORCING WITH THIS
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE WEAK WITH NOT MUCH QPF EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY
THIS SYSTEM.

AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST THURSDAY
NIGHT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST
WITH THE ENTIRE REGION NOW EXPECTED TO BE DRY FRIDAY AS A REX BLOCK
SETS UP ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL
RESULT IN BEAUTIFUL WEEKEND WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION AND FOR THE
START OF NEXT WEEK WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE MID
50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES AS WE START
THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY.  WITH TEMPERATURES
DROPPING AND WINDS BEING LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNDER AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE...RADIATIONAL FOG IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KGFL/KPSF
BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z. A HIGH PROBABILITY OF IFR CONDITIONS WILL EXIST
AT THIS TIME. PAST 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO ALL TAF SITES.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 5-10 KNOTS UP TO
22Z MONDAY. AS ALL TAF SITES ARE UNDER THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING INTO THE REGION AFTER 22Z MONDAY...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA.
FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH FAVORABLE
DRYING CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...DEW FORMATION AT NIGHT WILL REMAIN
HIGH ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG FORMATION. WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT WITH A SLIGHT SOUTHEAST DIRECTION
EVOLVING TUESDAY AT SPEEDS LESS THAN 10 MPH.

RH TONIGHT WILL RECOVER TO VALUES AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT. THE
MINIMUM RH VALUES TUESDAY AFTERNOON ARE FORECAST TO RANGE BETWEEN
35 AND 45 PERCENT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS THIS WEEK.
FAIR AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY EVENING WITH A
RETURN TO UNSETTLED WEATHER FROM THE MID WEEK PERIOD ONWARD AS
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. AT THIS TIME...THE GREATER QPF AMOUNTS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR
WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...LFM
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM


FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY




000
FXUS61 KALY 181913
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
313 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER.  TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WILL BE COOL ACROSS THE REGION.  TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND CLOSE TO
SEASONABLE LEVELS FOR TUESDAY UNDER A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE.  A SLOW
MOVING STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD WITH CLOUDS
AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...MAINLY WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT...CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE REGION
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTING FURTHER NORTH AND EAST AWAY FROM THE
REGION. SURFACE HIGH /1016MB PER MSAS/ PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY ENHANCE ITS INFLUENCE WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THE CLEARING
TREND TO CONTINUE TONIGHT. THE MAIN CHALLENGE OVERNIGHT WILL BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG. THE RECENT DEWPOINT DROP HAS STEADY OFF
WHICH WILL SET THE STAGE FOR NARROWING DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
OVERNIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS /AND A
LONGER NOCTURNAL PERIOD/ WILL LIKELY RESULT IN PATCHY FOG. THIS
WILL WELL HANDLED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST SO LITTLE CHANGES
NEEDED. AS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...TEMPERATURES ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE DACKS MAY DIP BACK TO A FEW UPPER 30S...WITH MOST LOCATIONS
INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH AND RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN A RATHER NICE
TRANQUIL DAY SETTING UP FOR TUESDAY. AFTER ANY PATCHY FOG BURNS
OFF...A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED. MIXING LAYER HEIGHTS
PER THE BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE NEAR H875 WHERE +14C/+15C RESIDES. DRY
ADIABATIC DECENT FROM THIS MIXING LAYER HEIGHT YIELDS 75F-80F FOR
VALLEY LOCATIONS AND LOW-MID 70S FOR THE TERRAIN.

TUESDAY NIGHT...UPSTREAM SYSTEM CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND LIKELY
ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH
OUR WESTERN ZONES OVERNIGHT. THIS IS SEEN IN THE H900-H800 RH
LAYER IN THE NCEP MODEL SUITE. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN PLACE SO WE WILL WITHHOLD THE MENTION OF PRECIP AT THIS
TIME. AT THE MINIMUM...WE WILL INCREASE LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS AS
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE A BIT MILDER WITH A BLEND OF THE CURRENT
MOS GUIDANCE.

WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY TRACK EAST.
MEANWHILE...THE SURFACE HIGH WANTS TO EXTENDS ITS INFLUENCE ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND AND INTO EASTERN NEW YORK. THIS MAY DELAY FURTHER THE
ONSET OF PRECIP. THE ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS ON THE 325K SURFACE FROM
THE GFS/NAM SUGGEST WHILE LIFT WILL BE ONGOING...THE
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS /CPD/ REMAIN RATHER HIGH
THROUGH MOST OF AT LEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. WE WILL FURTHER SLOW
DOWN THE POP/WX ARRIVAL AND KEEP MOST OF OUR NEW ENGLAND COUNTIES
DRY. IF SOME BREAKS OF SUN DO OCCUR...VALLEY TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE ABLE TO CLIMB AT OR ABOVE 80F WITH 70S ELSEWHERE.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE ISENTROPIC LIFT...LOWERING CPD/S...AND
WEAK YET PERSISTENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL FAVOR AN INCREASE IN
POPS FOR MOST OF EASTERN NEW YORK /ALONG AND WEST OF THE HUDSON
RIVER/ AND STILL ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE FOR OUR NEW ENGLAND
COUNTIES. THE LATEST ECMWF IS EVEN STRONGER WITH A DRIER SIGNAL
ALONG AND EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER AS THE SURFACE HIGH IS A BIT
STRONGER. SO WE WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS FOR PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY...ADIRONDACKS AND SCHOHARIE VALLEY. WITH THE
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A LITTLE MILDER
AS WELL WITH MAINLY 50S EXPECTED FOR THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BEGIN UNSETTLED WITH IMPROVING WEATHER BY
NEXT WEEKEND.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...LONG RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT HANDLING THE SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION DURING
THE LATE WORK WEEK/WEEKEND PERIOD...WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. IT
NOW APPEARS THAT MUCH OF THE DAY THURSDAY WILL FEATURE A CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE SYNOPTIC FORCING WITH THIS
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE WEAK WITH NOT MUCH QPF EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY
THIS SYSTEM.

AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST THURSDAY
NIGHT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST
WITH THE ENTIRE REGION NOW EXPECTED TO BE DRY FRIDAY AS A REX BLOCK
SETS UP ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL
RESULT IN BEAUTIFUL WEEKEND WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION AND FOR THE
START OF NEXT WEEK WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE MID
50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES AS WE START
THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY.  WITH TEMPERATURES
DROPPING AND WINDS BEING LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNDER AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE...RADIATIONAL FOG IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KGFL/KPSF
BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z. A HIGH PROBABILITY OF IFR CONDITIONS WILL EXIST
AT THIS TIME. PAST 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO ALL TAF SITES.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 5-10 KNOTS UP TO
22Z MONDAY. AS ALL TAF SITES ARE UNDER THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING INTO THE REGION AFTER 22Z MONDAY...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA.
FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH FAVORABLE
DRYING CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...DEW FORMATION AT NIGHT WILL REMAIN
HIGH ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG FORMATION. WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT WITH A SLIGHT SOUTHEAST DIRECTION
EVOLVING TUESDAY AT SPEEDS LESS THAN 10 MPH.

RH TONIGHT WILL RECOVER TO VALUES AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT. THE
MINIMUM RH VALUES TUESDAY AFTERNOON ARE FORECAST TO RANGE BETWEEN
35 AND 45 PERCENT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS THIS WEEK.
FAIR AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY EVENING WITH A
RETURN TO UNSETTLED WEATHER FROM THE MID WEEK PERIOD ONWARD AS
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. AT THIS TIME...THE GREATER QPF AMOUNTS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR
WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...LFM
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM


FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY




000
FXUS61 KALY 181913
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
313 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER.  TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WILL BE COOL ACROSS THE REGION.  TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND CLOSE TO
SEASONABLE LEVELS FOR TUESDAY UNDER A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE.  A SLOW
MOVING STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD WITH CLOUDS
AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...MAINLY WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT...CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE REGION
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTING FURTHER NORTH AND EAST AWAY FROM THE
REGION. SURFACE HIGH /1016MB PER MSAS/ PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY ENHANCE ITS INFLUENCE WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THE CLEARING
TREND TO CONTINUE TONIGHT. THE MAIN CHALLENGE OVERNIGHT WILL BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG. THE RECENT DEWPOINT DROP HAS STEADY OFF
WHICH WILL SET THE STAGE FOR NARROWING DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
OVERNIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS /AND A
LONGER NOCTURNAL PERIOD/ WILL LIKELY RESULT IN PATCHY FOG. THIS
WILL WELL HANDLED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST SO LITTLE CHANGES
NEEDED. AS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...TEMPERATURES ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE DACKS MAY DIP BACK TO A FEW UPPER 30S...WITH MOST LOCATIONS
INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH AND RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN A RATHER NICE
TRANQUIL DAY SETTING UP FOR TUESDAY. AFTER ANY PATCHY FOG BURNS
OFF...A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED. MIXING LAYER HEIGHTS
PER THE BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE NEAR H875 WHERE +14C/+15C RESIDES. DRY
ADIABATIC DECENT FROM THIS MIXING LAYER HEIGHT YIELDS 75F-80F FOR
VALLEY LOCATIONS AND LOW-MID 70S FOR THE TERRAIN.

TUESDAY NIGHT...UPSTREAM SYSTEM CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND LIKELY
ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH
OUR WESTERN ZONES OVERNIGHT. THIS IS SEEN IN THE H900-H800 RH
LAYER IN THE NCEP MODEL SUITE. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN PLACE SO WE WILL WITHHOLD THE MENTION OF PRECIP AT THIS
TIME. AT THE MINIMUM...WE WILL INCREASE LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS AS
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE A BIT MILDER WITH A BLEND OF THE CURRENT
MOS GUIDANCE.

WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY TRACK EAST.
MEANWHILE...THE SURFACE HIGH WANTS TO EXTENDS ITS INFLUENCE ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND AND INTO EASTERN NEW YORK. THIS MAY DELAY FURTHER THE
ONSET OF PRECIP. THE ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS ON THE 325K SURFACE FROM
THE GFS/NAM SUGGEST WHILE LIFT WILL BE ONGOING...THE
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS /CPD/ REMAIN RATHER HIGH
THROUGH MOST OF AT LEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. WE WILL FURTHER SLOW
DOWN THE POP/WX ARRIVAL AND KEEP MOST OF OUR NEW ENGLAND COUNTIES
DRY. IF SOME BREAKS OF SUN DO OCCUR...VALLEY TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE ABLE TO CLIMB AT OR ABOVE 80F WITH 70S ELSEWHERE.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE ISENTROPIC LIFT...LOWERING CPD/S...AND
WEAK YET PERSISTENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL FAVOR AN INCREASE IN
POPS FOR MOST OF EASTERN NEW YORK /ALONG AND WEST OF THE HUDSON
RIVER/ AND STILL ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE FOR OUR NEW ENGLAND
COUNTIES. THE LATEST ECMWF IS EVEN STRONGER WITH A DRIER SIGNAL
ALONG AND EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER AS THE SURFACE HIGH IS A BIT
STRONGER. SO WE WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS FOR PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY...ADIRONDACKS AND SCHOHARIE VALLEY. WITH THE
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A LITTLE MILDER
AS WELL WITH MAINLY 50S EXPECTED FOR THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BEGIN UNSETTLED WITH IMPROVING WEATHER BY
NEXT WEEKEND.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...LONG RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT HANDLING THE SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION DURING
THE LATE WORK WEEK/WEEKEND PERIOD...WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. IT
NOW APPEARS THAT MUCH OF THE DAY THURSDAY WILL FEATURE A CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE SYNOPTIC FORCING WITH THIS
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE WEAK WITH NOT MUCH QPF EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY
THIS SYSTEM.

AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST THURSDAY
NIGHT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST
WITH THE ENTIRE REGION NOW EXPECTED TO BE DRY FRIDAY AS A REX BLOCK
SETS UP ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL
RESULT IN BEAUTIFUL WEEKEND WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION AND FOR THE
START OF NEXT WEEK WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE MID
50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES AS WE START
THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY.  WITH TEMPERATURES
DROPPING AND WINDS BEING LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNDER AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE...RADIATIONAL FOG IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KGFL/KPSF
BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z. A HIGH PROBABILITY OF IFR CONDITIONS WILL EXIST
AT THIS TIME. PAST 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO ALL TAF SITES.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 5-10 KNOTS UP TO
22Z MONDAY. AS ALL TAF SITES ARE UNDER THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING INTO THE REGION AFTER 22Z MONDAY...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA.
FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH FAVORABLE
DRYING CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...DEW FORMATION AT NIGHT WILL REMAIN
HIGH ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG FORMATION. WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT WITH A SLIGHT SOUTHEAST DIRECTION
EVOLVING TUESDAY AT SPEEDS LESS THAN 10 MPH.

RH TONIGHT WILL RECOVER TO VALUES AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT. THE
MINIMUM RH VALUES TUESDAY AFTERNOON ARE FORECAST TO RANGE BETWEEN
35 AND 45 PERCENT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS THIS WEEK.
FAIR AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY EVENING WITH A
RETURN TO UNSETTLED WEATHER FROM THE MID WEEK PERIOD ONWARD AS
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. AT THIS TIME...THE GREATER QPF AMOUNTS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR
WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...LFM
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM


FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY




000
FXUS61 KALY 181913
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
313 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER.  TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WILL BE COOL ACROSS THE REGION.  TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND CLOSE TO
SEASONABLE LEVELS FOR TUESDAY UNDER A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE.  A SLOW
MOVING STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD WITH CLOUDS
AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...MAINLY WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT...CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE REGION
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTING FURTHER NORTH AND EAST AWAY FROM THE
REGION. SURFACE HIGH /1016MB PER MSAS/ PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY ENHANCE ITS INFLUENCE WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THE CLEARING
TREND TO CONTINUE TONIGHT. THE MAIN CHALLENGE OVERNIGHT WILL BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG. THE RECENT DEWPOINT DROP HAS STEADY OFF
WHICH WILL SET THE STAGE FOR NARROWING DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
OVERNIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS /AND A
LONGER NOCTURNAL PERIOD/ WILL LIKELY RESULT IN PATCHY FOG. THIS
WILL WELL HANDLED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST SO LITTLE CHANGES
NEEDED. AS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...TEMPERATURES ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE DACKS MAY DIP BACK TO A FEW UPPER 30S...WITH MOST LOCATIONS
INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH AND RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN A RATHER NICE
TRANQUIL DAY SETTING UP FOR TUESDAY. AFTER ANY PATCHY FOG BURNS
OFF...A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED. MIXING LAYER HEIGHTS
PER THE BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE NEAR H875 WHERE +14C/+15C RESIDES. DRY
ADIABATIC DECENT FROM THIS MIXING LAYER HEIGHT YIELDS 75F-80F FOR
VALLEY LOCATIONS AND LOW-MID 70S FOR THE TERRAIN.

TUESDAY NIGHT...UPSTREAM SYSTEM CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND LIKELY
ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH
OUR WESTERN ZONES OVERNIGHT. THIS IS SEEN IN THE H900-H800 RH
LAYER IN THE NCEP MODEL SUITE. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN PLACE SO WE WILL WITHHOLD THE MENTION OF PRECIP AT THIS
TIME. AT THE MINIMUM...WE WILL INCREASE LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS AS
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE A BIT MILDER WITH A BLEND OF THE CURRENT
MOS GUIDANCE.

WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY TRACK EAST.
MEANWHILE...THE SURFACE HIGH WANTS TO EXTENDS ITS INFLUENCE ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND AND INTO EASTERN NEW YORK. THIS MAY DELAY FURTHER THE
ONSET OF PRECIP. THE ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS ON THE 325K SURFACE FROM
THE GFS/NAM SUGGEST WHILE LIFT WILL BE ONGOING...THE
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS /CPD/ REMAIN RATHER HIGH
THROUGH MOST OF AT LEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. WE WILL FURTHER SLOW
DOWN THE POP/WX ARRIVAL AND KEEP MOST OF OUR NEW ENGLAND COUNTIES
DRY. IF SOME BREAKS OF SUN DO OCCUR...VALLEY TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE ABLE TO CLIMB AT OR ABOVE 80F WITH 70S ELSEWHERE.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE ISENTROPIC LIFT...LOWERING CPD/S...AND
WEAK YET PERSISTENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL FAVOR AN INCREASE IN
POPS FOR MOST OF EASTERN NEW YORK /ALONG AND WEST OF THE HUDSON
RIVER/ AND STILL ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE FOR OUR NEW ENGLAND
COUNTIES. THE LATEST ECMWF IS EVEN STRONGER WITH A DRIER SIGNAL
ALONG AND EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER AS THE SURFACE HIGH IS A BIT
STRONGER. SO WE WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS FOR PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY...ADIRONDACKS AND SCHOHARIE VALLEY. WITH THE
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A LITTLE MILDER
AS WELL WITH MAINLY 50S EXPECTED FOR THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BEGIN UNSETTLED WITH IMPROVING WEATHER BY
NEXT WEEKEND.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...LONG RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT HANDLING THE SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION DURING
THE LATE WORK WEEK/WEEKEND PERIOD...WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. IT
NOW APPEARS THAT MUCH OF THE DAY THURSDAY WILL FEATURE A CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE SYNOPTIC FORCING WITH THIS
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE WEAK WITH NOT MUCH QPF EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY
THIS SYSTEM.

AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST THURSDAY
NIGHT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST
WITH THE ENTIRE REGION NOW EXPECTED TO BE DRY FRIDAY AS A REX BLOCK
SETS UP ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL
RESULT IN BEAUTIFUL WEEKEND WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION AND FOR THE
START OF NEXT WEEK WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE MID
50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES AS WE START
THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY.  WITH TEMPERATURES
DROPPING AND WINDS BEING LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNDER AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE...RADIATIONAL FOG IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KGFL/KPSF
BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z. A HIGH PROBABILITY OF IFR CONDITIONS WILL EXIST
AT THIS TIME. PAST 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO ALL TAF SITES.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 5-10 KNOTS UP TO
22Z MONDAY. AS ALL TAF SITES ARE UNDER THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING INTO THE REGION AFTER 22Z MONDAY...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA.
FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH FAVORABLE
DRYING CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...DEW FORMATION AT NIGHT WILL REMAIN
HIGH ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG FORMATION. WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT WITH A SLIGHT SOUTHEAST DIRECTION
EVOLVING TUESDAY AT SPEEDS LESS THAN 10 MPH.

RH TONIGHT WILL RECOVER TO VALUES AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT. THE
MINIMUM RH VALUES TUESDAY AFTERNOON ARE FORECAST TO RANGE BETWEEN
35 AND 45 PERCENT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS THIS WEEK.
FAIR AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY EVENING WITH A
RETURN TO UNSETTLED WEATHER FROM THE MID WEEK PERIOD ONWARD AS
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. AT THIS TIME...THE GREATER QPF AMOUNTS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR
WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...LFM
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM


FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY




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