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000
FXUS61 KOKX 311939
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
339 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH A STRONGER
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. THERE IS NOT
MUCH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITH THE FRONT...SO EXPECTING A DRY
FORECAST. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT...AND SFC DEWPOINTS WILL DROP A BIT...GENERALLY FROM THE MID
TO UPPER 60S TO THE LOW TO MID 60S. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH
RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS...SOME PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH
DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

FOLLOWED A MAV/MET BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. EXPECT LOWS TO
DROP INTO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S. MID 70S ARE EXPECTED IN AND AROUND
NYC.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES THIS
EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. EXPECT A BETTER CHANCE AFTERNOON SEABREEZES ON TUESDAY AS
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE
AGAIN TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S. THE HEAT INDEX SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 90 ON
TUESDAY IN NYC.

TUESDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN CLEAR WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE
60S AND LOWER 70S. MID 70S ARE EXPECTED IN THE NYC METRO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION LATE
WED...FOLLOWED BY GLANCING SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM A STRONG NORTHERN
STREAM UPPER LOW THURSDAY. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH
PHASING THESE ENERGIES WELL EAST OF THE NE US...WITH UPPER RIDGING
BUILDING INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE WED AND THU. A WEAK
TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY
WED...MAY BE ENOUGH TO SETOFF AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM OFF
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE INTERIOR. STRONGER CANADIAN COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH LATE THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DIGGING SE THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS WILL BRING
POTENTIAL OF ISO/SCT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT SAG SOUTH. DAY TIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
LOWER 90S BOTH WED AND THU WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES APPROACHING 95
DEGS ACROSS NYC AND URBAN NE NJ.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SSW ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THIS WILL ADVECT A COOLER AND DRIER CANADIAN MARITIME
AIRMASS INTO THE REGION FOR FRI AND SAT. ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS
SHOULD BE IN THE 50S...GUSTY EAST WINDS ON FRIDAY MAY POSE A
ENHANCED CONCERN FOR SPREAD OF BRUSH FIRES DUE TO HIGH KBDI VALUES
AND AVAILABLE FINE FUELS. HIGHS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO RUN NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE...LOWER 80S TO AROUND 85.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
SINKS SE OF THE REGION. THIS WILL ALSO SPELL A STEADY MODERATION IN
HUMIDITY AND UNSEASONABLE WARMTH THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP REGION WIDE...BUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS
LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
TERMINALS INTO THIS EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY THROUGH 00Z. A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE TERMINALS 06Z TO 11Z...THEN MOVES NORTHEAST AS A
WARM FRONT TUESDAY MORNING.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR FOG IS
POSSIBLE AT KSWF LATE TONIGHT.

THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WIND WILL BE FROM THE WEST TO
SOUTHWEST...AROUND 10 KT. AFTER EARLY THIS EVENING THE WIND FORECAST
BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN WITH THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT...AND THE
SHIFT TO THE NORTH. WIND COULD EVEN BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT LIKELY TUESDAY BY MIDDAY.


   ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: THE SEA BREEZE MOVED THROUGH AROUND 19Z WITH
THE WIND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST...AROUND 210...AND MAY GO AROUND TO TRUE
SEA BREEZE OF 180 LATE THIS AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KT
POSSIBLE THROUGH 00Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. OCCASIONAL
GUSTS UP TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON. THE SEA BREEZE IS NOT EXPECTED TO
REACH THE TERMINAL. WILL BE 22Z TO 23Z IF THE SEA BREEZE DOES MOVE
THROUGH. LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. OCCASIONAL
GUSTS UP TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND MAY SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST OR SOUTH WITH THE
SEA BREEZE APPROACH. POSSIBLE THE SEA BREEZE MOVES THROUGH BY 22Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH BY 20Z WITH
THE WIND SHIFTING TO SOUTH SOUTHWEST...AROUND 210. AN OCCASIONAL
GUST UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE. WIND MAY BECOME TRUE SEA BREEZE DIRECTION
190 LATE THIS AFTERNOON.


.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY AFTERNOON-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES
LIKELY.
.THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES PROBABLE.
.FRIDAY...VFR. ENE WINDS G15-20KT.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WATERS
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

SUB SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED WED WITH A WEAK TROUGH IN THE REGION AND
THU AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS IS
FRIDAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
EASTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT AND OCEAN SEAS BUILDING TO 5 TO 6 FT
ON THE OCEAN...WITH SCA GUSTS POSSIBLE ON LI SOUND AND NEARSHORE
WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/NV
NEAR TERM...BC
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...BC/NV
HYDROLOGY...BC/NV



000
FXUS61 KOKX 311939
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
339 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH A STRONGER
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. THERE IS NOT
MUCH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITH THE FRONT...SO EXPECTING A DRY
FORECAST. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT...AND SFC DEWPOINTS WILL DROP A BIT...GENERALLY FROM THE MID
TO UPPER 60S TO THE LOW TO MID 60S. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH
RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS...SOME PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH
DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

FOLLOWED A MAV/MET BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. EXPECT LOWS TO
DROP INTO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S. MID 70S ARE EXPECTED IN AND AROUND
NYC.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES THIS
EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. EXPECT A BETTER CHANCE AFTERNOON SEABREEZES ON TUESDAY AS
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE
AGAIN TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S. THE HEAT INDEX SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 90 ON
TUESDAY IN NYC.

TUESDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN CLEAR WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE
60S AND LOWER 70S. MID 70S ARE EXPECTED IN THE NYC METRO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION LATE
WED...FOLLOWED BY GLANCING SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM A STRONG NORTHERN
STREAM UPPER LOW THURSDAY. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH
PHASING THESE ENERGIES WELL EAST OF THE NE US...WITH UPPER RIDGING
BUILDING INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE WED AND THU. A WEAK
TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY
WED...MAY BE ENOUGH TO SETOFF AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM OFF
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE INTERIOR. STRONGER CANADIAN COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH LATE THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DIGGING SE THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS WILL BRING
POTENTIAL OF ISO/SCT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT SAG SOUTH. DAY TIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
LOWER 90S BOTH WED AND THU WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES APPROACHING 95
DEGS ACROSS NYC AND URBAN NE NJ.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SSW ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THIS WILL ADVECT A COOLER AND DRIER CANADIAN MARITIME
AIRMASS INTO THE REGION FOR FRI AND SAT. ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS
SHOULD BE IN THE 50S...GUSTY EAST WINDS ON FRIDAY MAY POSE A
ENHANCED CONCERN FOR SPREAD OF BRUSH FIRES DUE TO HIGH KBDI VALUES
AND AVAILABLE FINE FUELS. HIGHS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO RUN NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE...LOWER 80S TO AROUND 85.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
SINKS SE OF THE REGION. THIS WILL ALSO SPELL A STEADY MODERATION IN
HUMIDITY AND UNSEASONABLE WARMTH THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP REGION WIDE...BUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS
LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
TERMINALS INTO THIS EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY THROUGH 00Z. A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE TERMINALS 06Z TO 11Z...THEN MOVES NORTHEAST AS A
WARM FRONT TUESDAY MORNING.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR FOG IS
POSSIBLE AT KSWF LATE TONIGHT.

THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WIND WILL BE FROM THE WEST TO
SOUTHWEST...AROUND 10 KT. AFTER EARLY THIS EVENING THE WIND FORECAST
BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN WITH THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT...AND THE
SHIFT TO THE NORTH. WIND COULD EVEN BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT LIKELY TUESDAY BY MIDDAY.


   ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: THE SEA BREEZE MOVED THROUGH AROUND 19Z WITH
THE WIND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST...AROUND 210...AND MAY GO AROUND TO TRUE
SEA BREEZE OF 180 LATE THIS AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KT
POSSIBLE THROUGH 00Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. OCCASIONAL
GUSTS UP TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON. THE SEA BREEZE IS NOT EXPECTED TO
REACH THE TERMINAL. WILL BE 22Z TO 23Z IF THE SEA BREEZE DOES MOVE
THROUGH. LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. OCCASIONAL
GUSTS UP TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND MAY SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST OR SOUTH WITH THE
SEA BREEZE APPROACH. POSSIBLE THE SEA BREEZE MOVES THROUGH BY 22Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH BY 20Z WITH
THE WIND SHIFTING TO SOUTH SOUTHWEST...AROUND 210. AN OCCASIONAL
GUST UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE. WIND MAY BECOME TRUE SEA BREEZE DIRECTION
190 LATE THIS AFTERNOON.


.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY AFTERNOON-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES
LIKELY.
.THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES PROBABLE.
.FRIDAY...VFR. ENE WINDS G15-20KT.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WATERS
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

SUB SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED WED WITH A WEAK TROUGH IN THE REGION AND
THU AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS IS
FRIDAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
EASTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT AND OCEAN SEAS BUILDING TO 5 TO 6 FT
ON THE OCEAN...WITH SCA GUSTS POSSIBLE ON LI SOUND AND NEARSHORE
WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/NV
NEAR TERM...BC
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...BC/NV
HYDROLOGY...BC/NV



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000
FXUS61 KBOX 311929
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
329 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL USHER A BRIEF REPRIEVE IN THE HOT AND HUMID
WEATHER FOR TUESDAY. BUT SHORT-LIVED AS IT RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY. THEN SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER FRIDAY INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAINLY
DRY WEATHER CONTINUING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

TONIGHT...

MID-LEVEL IMPULSE THROUGH THE CYCLONIC FLOW SHUNTS A COOLER AND
DRIER AIRMASS SE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. IT IS WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT ALONG THE LEADING EDGE THAT WE WILL SEE WINDS SHIFT
W/NW AS DEWPOINTS DROP SLIGHTLY. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD DECKS IN
WHAT WILL OVERALL BE A QUIET AND MILD NIGHT. LOWS DOWN AROUND THE
MID- TO UPPER-60S NW TO SE AS USUAL. PATCHY FOG IN TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

TUESDAY...

RIDGING BUILDING BEHIND THE OVERNIGHT IMPULSE YIELDS AN OVERALL
LIGHT W-FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. +14-16C H85 AIRMASS LINGERS WITHIN
THE LIGHT WIND PATTERN RESULTING A BRIEF REPRIEVE OF HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS. LOOKING AT HIGHS AROUND THE MID- TO UPPER-80S WITH
DEWPOINTS RANGING AROUND THE LOW-60S. SEA-BREEZES LIKELY ALONG THE
SHORES AHEAD OF WHICH MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING
SHOULD YIELD SCATTERED TO BROKEN PANCAKE-LIKE CUMULUS.

TUESDAY NIGHT...

RIDGING STILL IN PLACE PUSHING A WARM-DRY AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION
ALOFT. H85 TEMPERATURES WARMING UP AROUND +20C. APPEARING LIKE A
GOOD SETUP OF MOISTURE TRAPPING AT THE SURFACE...AND COMBINED WITH
HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS ALLOWING FOR A MEASURE OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING...COULD BE TALKING ABOUT A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR FOG. LOWS
AROUND THE LOW- TO MID-60S WITH SIMILAR DEWPOINT VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSEASONABLY HOT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
* A BIT COOLER FRI INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL
* MAINLY DRY OTHER THAN A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS THURSDAY

MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH A BROAD
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND HOLDING
STEADY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH THE ENTIRE LONG
TERM PERIOD. OVERALL...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES AT THE SURFACE AS
WELL. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS IS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM
LOW PRESSURE IN THE MARITIMES THAT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE TWO HOTTEST DAYS OF THE WEEK WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER TEENS LEADING TO HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 80S TO LOW 90S. ALSO...THE MOST INTERESTING PERIOD IN THE
LONG TERM FORECAST AS A COLD FRONT WORKS ITS WAY SOUTH THROUGH
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE REGION THURSDAY. MOISTURE IS NOT IDEAL BUT THERES ENOUGH OF
IT TO RESULT IN CAPES IN THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE. WITH NO
SHEAR...DO NOT EXPECT ANY SEVERE WEATHER TO OCCUR BUT FEEL THERE
IS ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR.

FRIDAY THROUGH LABOR DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER THANKS
TO THE COLD FRONT BUT STILL SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
FIRST WEEK IN SEPTEMBER. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER
80S FOR MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE
OVER THE REGION...EXPECT SEA BREEZES WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES
DOWN A FEW DEGREES ALONG THE COASTS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

18Z UPDATE...

TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR. BREEZY W-WINDS THROUGH EVENING. PATCHY IFR FOG IN TYPICALLY
PRONE LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT. LIGHT W-WINDS WITH SEA-BREEZES LIKELY
TUESDAY. PATCHY POSSIBLY WIDESPREAD IFR FOG INTO WEDNESDAY MORN.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE LIKELY BY
LATE-MORNING TUESDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. LOW PROBABILITY OF
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH ISOLD SHRA/TSRA THU. ALSO...IFR VSBYS
POSSIBLE IN PATCHY FOG EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUBSEQUENT WIND STRESS AND SWELL FROM SW WINDS GUSTING UPWARDS OF
20 KTS EARLIER TODAY MAY RESULT IN WAVE HEIGHTS OF 5 FEET ON THE
S/SE WATERS OVERNIGHT. OVERALL THINK WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW 5
FEET. COLD FRONT SWEEPS THE WATERS LATE ALLOWING WINDS TO BACK
W/NW WHILE BECOMING LIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SEA-BREEZES ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE SHORES INTO TUESDAY...DISSIPATING TUESDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

NEAR STATIONARY UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT
IN LIGHT WINDS AND FAIRLY CALM SEAS. EXPECT QUIET BOATING WEATHER
WITH WINDS AND SEAS BOTH BELOW SCA CRITERIA. PATCHY FOG MAY LIMIT
VISIBILITIES AT TIMES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RLG/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...RLG/SIPPRELL
MARINE...RLG/SIPPRELL




000
FXUS61 KBOX 311929
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
329 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL USHER A BRIEF REPRIEVE IN THE HOT AND HUMID
WEATHER FOR TUESDAY. BUT SHORT-LIVED AS IT RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY. THEN SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER FRIDAY INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAINLY
DRY WEATHER CONTINUING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

TONIGHT...

MID-LEVEL IMPULSE THROUGH THE CYCLONIC FLOW SHUNTS A COOLER AND
DRIER AIRMASS SE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. IT IS WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT ALONG THE LEADING EDGE THAT WE WILL SEE WINDS SHIFT
W/NW AS DEWPOINTS DROP SLIGHTLY. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD DECKS IN
WHAT WILL OVERALL BE A QUIET AND MILD NIGHT. LOWS DOWN AROUND THE
MID- TO UPPER-60S NW TO SE AS USUAL. PATCHY FOG IN TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

TUESDAY...

RIDGING BUILDING BEHIND THE OVERNIGHT IMPULSE YIELDS AN OVERALL
LIGHT W-FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. +14-16C H85 AIRMASS LINGERS WITHIN
THE LIGHT WIND PATTERN RESULTING A BRIEF REPRIEVE OF HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS. LOOKING AT HIGHS AROUND THE MID- TO UPPER-80S WITH
DEWPOINTS RANGING AROUND THE LOW-60S. SEA-BREEZES LIKELY ALONG THE
SHORES AHEAD OF WHICH MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING
SHOULD YIELD SCATTERED TO BROKEN PANCAKE-LIKE CUMULUS.

TUESDAY NIGHT...

RIDGING STILL IN PLACE PUSHING A WARM-DRY AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION
ALOFT. H85 TEMPERATURES WARMING UP AROUND +20C. APPEARING LIKE A
GOOD SETUP OF MOISTURE TRAPPING AT THE SURFACE...AND COMBINED WITH
HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS ALLOWING FOR A MEASURE OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING...COULD BE TALKING ABOUT A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR FOG. LOWS
AROUND THE LOW- TO MID-60S WITH SIMILAR DEWPOINT VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSEASONABLY HOT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
* A BIT COOLER FRI INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL
* MAINLY DRY OTHER THAN A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS THURSDAY

MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH A BROAD
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND HOLDING
STEADY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH THE ENTIRE LONG
TERM PERIOD. OVERALL...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES AT THE SURFACE AS
WELL. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS IS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM
LOW PRESSURE IN THE MARITIMES THAT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE TWO HOTTEST DAYS OF THE WEEK WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER TEENS LEADING TO HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 80S TO LOW 90S. ALSO...THE MOST INTERESTING PERIOD IN THE
LONG TERM FORECAST AS A COLD FRONT WORKS ITS WAY SOUTH THROUGH
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE REGION THURSDAY. MOISTURE IS NOT IDEAL BUT THERES ENOUGH OF
IT TO RESULT IN CAPES IN THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE. WITH NO
SHEAR...DO NOT EXPECT ANY SEVERE WEATHER TO OCCUR BUT FEEL THERE
IS ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR.

FRIDAY THROUGH LABOR DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER THANKS
TO THE COLD FRONT BUT STILL SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
FIRST WEEK IN SEPTEMBER. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER
80S FOR MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE
OVER THE REGION...EXPECT SEA BREEZES WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES
DOWN A FEW DEGREES ALONG THE COASTS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

18Z UPDATE...

TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR. BREEZY W-WINDS THROUGH EVENING. PATCHY IFR FOG IN TYPICALLY
PRONE LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT. LIGHT W-WINDS WITH SEA-BREEZES LIKELY
TUESDAY. PATCHY POSSIBLY WIDESPREAD IFR FOG INTO WEDNESDAY MORN.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE LIKELY BY
LATE-MORNING TUESDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. LOW PROBABILITY OF
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH ISOLD SHRA/TSRA THU. ALSO...IFR VSBYS
POSSIBLE IN PATCHY FOG EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUBSEQUENT WIND STRESS AND SWELL FROM SW WINDS GUSTING UPWARDS OF
20 KTS EARLIER TODAY MAY RESULT IN WAVE HEIGHTS OF 5 FEET ON THE
S/SE WATERS OVERNIGHT. OVERALL THINK WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW 5
FEET. COLD FRONT SWEEPS THE WATERS LATE ALLOWING WINDS TO BACK
W/NW WHILE BECOMING LIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SEA-BREEZES ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE SHORES INTO TUESDAY...DISSIPATING TUESDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

NEAR STATIONARY UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT
IN LIGHT WINDS AND FAIRLY CALM SEAS. EXPECT QUIET BOATING WEATHER
WITH WINDS AND SEAS BOTH BELOW SCA CRITERIA. PATCHY FOG MAY LIMIT
VISIBILITIES AT TIMES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RLG/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...RLG/SIPPRELL
MARINE...RLG/SIPPRELL


  [top]

000
FXUS61 KALY 311753
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
153 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THIS WEEK WILL BE HOT WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT.
HIGHS MAINLY IN 80S ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH SOME 90S
ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE MIDDLE AND
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH JUST AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS
QUEBEC. ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MOST
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AND JUST TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA...SIMILAR AREA TO YESTERDAY. HAVE ADDED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. HRRR-3KM IS OVERDONE
WITH ACTIVITY SO FAR BUT DOES SHOW IT DIMINISHED BY 22Z.

A WARM/HOT DAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS IN
THE 60S MAKING FOR HUMID/MUGGY CONDITIONS. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
MAINLY BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL DATA AND TRENDS. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S. AREAL COVERAGE OF CLOUDS WILL DECREASE
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

WILL BE BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON IN SOME AREAS...AS 850-700 MB WINDS
STRENGTHEN BETWEEN AN TROUGH PASSING TO THE NORTH AND A LOW LEVEL
RIDGE TO OUR SOUTHEAST. GUSTS REACHING 20 TO 25 MPH AT TIMES THIS
AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION
AND BERKSHIRES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GENERALLY WARM WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THERE
COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING. MAX
TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID/UPPER 80S IN VALLEYS ON TUE...WITH
LOWER 80S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS...THEN SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER ON WED...REACHING AROUND 90 FOR VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 80S
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER/MID
60S...GIVING HEAT INDICES OF 85-90 TUE...AND 90-95 ON WED.
OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AS WELL AS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT
AND WESTERN MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. MUCH OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE VERY WARM TO HOT
WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION. ANY CONVECTION
THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY ISOLATED. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
PORTION OF THE FA THURSDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND TRAILING
COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA.

HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S...EXCEPT FOR
SOME UPPER 70S ACROSS TERRAIN ABOVE 2000 FEET. LOWS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITATION BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE FROM THE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND AND UPSTATE NEW YORK TONIGHT.  THE
FRONT WILL MOVE BACK NORTHEAST OF NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
TOMORROW AS A WARM FRONT...AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE BACK IN FROM
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.

VFR CONDITIONS HAVE MAINLY PREVAILED THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT FOR
SOME HIGH MVFR CUMULUS /AROUND 3 KFT AGL/ NEAR KPSF.  SOME SCT
CUMULUS CONTINUE AT KGFL/KALB/KPOU.  ALSO...SOME SCT-BKN CIRRUS
ASSOCIATED WITH A DISTURBANCE TO THE SOUTH CONTINUES NEAR KPOU. SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE HAVE DEVELOPED
NEAR KPOU...AND A VCSH GROUP WAS USED UNTIL 20Z.  BREEZY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE A MID LEVEL
TROUGH.  THE WINDS WILL RANGE FROM THE SW TO NW AT 8-12 KTS WITH A
FEW GUSTS AROUND 18 KTS AT KALB/KPSF.

THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GO LIGHT BY SUNSET...THEN CALM AROUND
MIDNIGHT...WITH SOME RADIATIONAL FOG/MIST FORMING. THE BEST CHC FOR
IFR/LIFR FOG DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE AT KGFL/KPSF BTWN
06Z-13Z. KALB/KPOU MAY BE A LITTLE MORE CHALLENGING WITH A WELL
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
WAS NOT CONFIDENT FOR LONG DURATION IFR VSBYS/CIGS...SO WENT WITH
MVFR VSBYS AT 3SM FOR NOW BTWN 08-12Z AT THOSE TWO SITES.  THE
POTENTIAL IFR/LIFR VSBYS/CIGS AT KGFL/KPSF SHOULD DISSIPATE AT 12-
14Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING WITH THE SFC RIDGE BUILDING IN.

THE WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AFTER SUNRISE AT 5 KTS OR
LESS...HEADING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...

A WEAK TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL PRODUCE SOME
GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST. SPEEDS WILL
GENERALLY AVERAGE 10-20 MPH...BUT SOME GUSTS OF UP TO 25 MPH COULD
OCCUR...ESP IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL
REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET...BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY.

THE RH WILL FALL INTO THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN RECOVER TO 90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH WILL
FALL TO 40-5O PERCENT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THU AND
FRI...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOONS.

WIDESPREAD DEW FORMATION IS LIKELY TONIGHT...AND AGAIN TUE NT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED AUGUST 27
THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST 29, 30
AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY.
DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/KL/WASULA
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL
CLIMATE...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 311753
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
153 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THIS WEEK WILL BE HOT WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT.
HIGHS MAINLY IN 80S ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH SOME 90S
ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE MIDDLE AND
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH JUST AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS
QUEBEC. ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MOST
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AND JUST TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA...SIMILAR AREA TO YESTERDAY. HAVE ADDED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. HRRR-3KM IS OVERDONE
WITH ACTIVITY SO FAR BUT DOES SHOW IT DIMINISHED BY 22Z.

A WARM/HOT DAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS IN
THE 60S MAKING FOR HUMID/MUGGY CONDITIONS. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
MAINLY BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL DATA AND TRENDS. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S. AREAL COVERAGE OF CLOUDS WILL DECREASE
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

WILL BE BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON IN SOME AREAS...AS 850-700 MB WINDS
STRENGTHEN BETWEEN AN TROUGH PASSING TO THE NORTH AND A LOW LEVEL
RIDGE TO OUR SOUTHEAST. GUSTS REACHING 20 TO 25 MPH AT TIMES THIS
AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION
AND BERKSHIRES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GENERALLY WARM WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THERE
COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING. MAX
TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID/UPPER 80S IN VALLEYS ON TUE...WITH
LOWER 80S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS...THEN SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER ON WED...REACHING AROUND 90 FOR VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 80S
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER/MID
60S...GIVING HEAT INDICES OF 85-90 TUE...AND 90-95 ON WED.
OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AS WELL AS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT
AND WESTERN MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. MUCH OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE VERY WARM TO HOT
WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION. ANY CONVECTION
THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY ISOLATED. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
PORTION OF THE FA THURSDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND TRAILING
COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA.

HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S...EXCEPT FOR
SOME UPPER 70S ACROSS TERRAIN ABOVE 2000 FEET. LOWS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITATION BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE FROM THE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND AND UPSTATE NEW YORK TONIGHT.  THE
FRONT WILL MOVE BACK NORTHEAST OF NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
TOMORROW AS A WARM FRONT...AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE BACK IN FROM
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.

VFR CONDITIONS HAVE MAINLY PREVAILED THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT FOR
SOME HIGH MVFR CUMULUS /AROUND 3 KFT AGL/ NEAR KPSF.  SOME SCT
CUMULUS CONTINUE AT KGFL/KALB/KPOU.  ALSO...SOME SCT-BKN CIRRUS
ASSOCIATED WITH A DISTURBANCE TO THE SOUTH CONTINUES NEAR KPOU. SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE HAVE DEVELOPED
NEAR KPOU...AND A VCSH GROUP WAS USED UNTIL 20Z.  BREEZY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE A MID LEVEL
TROUGH.  THE WINDS WILL RANGE FROM THE SW TO NW AT 8-12 KTS WITH A
FEW GUSTS AROUND 18 KTS AT KALB/KPSF.

THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GO LIGHT BY SUNSET...THEN CALM AROUND
MIDNIGHT...WITH SOME RADIATIONAL FOG/MIST FORMING. THE BEST CHC FOR
IFR/LIFR FOG DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE AT KGFL/KPSF BTWN
06Z-13Z. KALB/KPOU MAY BE A LITTLE MORE CHALLENGING WITH A WELL
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
WAS NOT CONFIDENT FOR LONG DURATION IFR VSBYS/CIGS...SO WENT WITH
MVFR VSBYS AT 3SM FOR NOW BTWN 08-12Z AT THOSE TWO SITES.  THE
POTENTIAL IFR/LIFR VSBYS/CIGS AT KGFL/KPSF SHOULD DISSIPATE AT 12-
14Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING WITH THE SFC RIDGE BUILDING IN.

THE WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AFTER SUNRISE AT 5 KTS OR
LESS...HEADING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...

A WEAK TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL PRODUCE SOME
GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST. SPEEDS WILL
GENERALLY AVERAGE 10-20 MPH...BUT SOME GUSTS OF UP TO 25 MPH COULD
OCCUR...ESP IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL
REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET...BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY.

THE RH WILL FALL INTO THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN RECOVER TO 90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH WILL
FALL TO 40-5O PERCENT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THU AND
FRI...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOONS.

WIDESPREAD DEW FORMATION IS LIKELY TONIGHT...AND AGAIN TUE NT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED AUGUST 27
THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST 29, 30
AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY.
DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/KL/WASULA
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL
CLIMATE...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 311753
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
153 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THIS WEEK WILL BE HOT WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT.
HIGHS MAINLY IN 80S ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH SOME 90S
ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE MIDDLE AND
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH JUST AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS
QUEBEC. ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MOST
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AND JUST TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA...SIMILAR AREA TO YESTERDAY. HAVE ADDED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. HRRR-3KM IS OVERDONE
WITH ACTIVITY SO FAR BUT DOES SHOW IT DIMINISHED BY 22Z.

A WARM/HOT DAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS IN
THE 60S MAKING FOR HUMID/MUGGY CONDITIONS. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
MAINLY BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL DATA AND TRENDS. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S. AREAL COVERAGE OF CLOUDS WILL DECREASE
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

WILL BE BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON IN SOME AREAS...AS 850-700 MB WINDS
STRENGTHEN BETWEEN AN TROUGH PASSING TO THE NORTH AND A LOW LEVEL
RIDGE TO OUR SOUTHEAST. GUSTS REACHING 20 TO 25 MPH AT TIMES THIS
AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION
AND BERKSHIRES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GENERALLY WARM WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THERE
COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING. MAX
TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID/UPPER 80S IN VALLEYS ON TUE...WITH
LOWER 80S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS...THEN SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER ON WED...REACHING AROUND 90 FOR VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 80S
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER/MID
60S...GIVING HEAT INDICES OF 85-90 TUE...AND 90-95 ON WED.
OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AS WELL AS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT
AND WESTERN MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. MUCH OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE VERY WARM TO HOT
WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION. ANY CONVECTION
THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY ISOLATED. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
PORTION OF THE FA THURSDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND TRAILING
COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA.

HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S...EXCEPT FOR
SOME UPPER 70S ACROSS TERRAIN ABOVE 2000 FEET. LOWS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITATION BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE FROM THE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND AND UPSTATE NEW YORK TONIGHT.  THE
FRONT WILL MOVE BACK NORTHEAST OF NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
TOMORROW AS A WARM FRONT...AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE BACK IN FROM
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.

VFR CONDITIONS HAVE MAINLY PREVAILED THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT FOR
SOME HIGH MVFR CUMULUS /AROUND 3 KFT AGL/ NEAR KPSF.  SOME SCT
CUMULUS CONTINUE AT KGFL/KALB/KPOU.  ALSO...SOME SCT-BKN CIRRUS
ASSOCIATED WITH A DISTURBANCE TO THE SOUTH CONTINUES NEAR KPOU. SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE HAVE DEVELOPED
NEAR KPOU...AND A VCSH GROUP WAS USED UNTIL 20Z.  BREEZY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE A MID LEVEL
TROUGH.  THE WINDS WILL RANGE FROM THE SW TO NW AT 8-12 KTS WITH A
FEW GUSTS AROUND 18 KTS AT KALB/KPSF.

THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GO LIGHT BY SUNSET...THEN CALM AROUND
MIDNIGHT...WITH SOME RADIATIONAL FOG/MIST FORMING. THE BEST CHC FOR
IFR/LIFR FOG DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE AT KGFL/KPSF BTWN
06Z-13Z. KALB/KPOU MAY BE A LITTLE MORE CHALLENGING WITH A WELL
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
WAS NOT CONFIDENT FOR LONG DURATION IFR VSBYS/CIGS...SO WENT WITH
MVFR VSBYS AT 3SM FOR NOW BTWN 08-12Z AT THOSE TWO SITES.  THE
POTENTIAL IFR/LIFR VSBYS/CIGS AT KGFL/KPSF SHOULD DISSIPATE AT 12-
14Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING WITH THE SFC RIDGE BUILDING IN.

THE WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AFTER SUNRISE AT 5 KTS OR
LESS...HEADING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...

A WEAK TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL PRODUCE SOME
GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST. SPEEDS WILL
GENERALLY AVERAGE 10-20 MPH...BUT SOME GUSTS OF UP TO 25 MPH COULD
OCCUR...ESP IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL
REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET...BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY.

THE RH WILL FALL INTO THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN RECOVER TO 90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH WILL
FALL TO 40-5O PERCENT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THU AND
FRI...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOONS.

WIDESPREAD DEW FORMATION IS LIKELY TONIGHT...AND AGAIN TUE NT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED AUGUST 27
THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST 29, 30
AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY.
DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/KL/WASULA
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL
CLIMATE...IAA



000
FXUS61 KBOX 311743
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
143 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HOT AND HUMID TODAY...THEN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BRING
COOLER WEATHER TUESDAY MAINLY JUST TO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.
UNSEASONABLY HOT WEATHER RETURNS TO MOST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING SLIGHTLY
COOLER WEATHER FRIDAY INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER CONTINUING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

2 PM UPDATE...

SOME SHOWERS POPPING UP W OF OUR AREA WITHIN THE BROADER CYCLONIC
FLOW AND ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF WHAT APPEARS TO BE A FAVORABLE
AREA OF POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION IN A REGION OF STRONG DAYTIME
HEATING. SHOWERS STRUGGLING WITHIN THE OVERALL DRY AIRMASS. COULD
WE SEE SOME OF THIS ENERGY INTO OUR REGION? WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
THOUGH ISOLATED. GREATER CHANCE ALONG A THIN FINE-LINE OBSERVED
VIA RADAR ALONG THE IMMEDATE COAST OF CT AND PER LOCAL OBS. CAN
SEE SOME LOCALIZED CONVERGENT FLOW. THAT LINE DOES EXTEND ON UP
THE COASTLINE INTO BUZZARDS BAY. WILL MONITOR THIS CLOSELY. AGAIN
ANY ACTIVITY LOCALIZED AND ISOLATED. LITTLE IMPACT.

REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST ON TRACK. SCATTERED-BROKEN MID- TO
HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD DECKS. HIGHS WARMING INTO THE UPPER-80S TO LOW-
90S. BREEZY W-WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...

TONIGHT...
WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL MOVE S INTO SNE LATE TONIGHT. MAIN
EFFECT WILL BE A WIND SHIFT TO LIGHT N WINDS AND DRYING IN THE
LOW LEVELS. NOTING KI VALUES CRASHING BELOW ZERO 06-12Z. DRY
CONDITIONS AND MOCLEAR SKIES EXPECTED. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN
IN NORMALLY PRONE LOCATIONS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70
DEGREES.

TUESDAY...
THE WEAK FRONT WILL LIKELY MIX OUT DURING THE DAY AS WEAK AREA OF
HIGH PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. VERY DRY AIR IN THE MID
LEVELS WILL RESULT IN LOTS OF SUNSHINE. SEABREEZES WILL QUICKLY
DEVELOP ON BOTH COASTS WITH COOLER TEMPS ESPECIALLY ACROSS E
COASTAL MA...BUT NOT MUCH COOLER CT VALLEY. TEMPS WILL REACH MID
TO UPPER 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST AND NEAR 90 CT VALLEY...BUT UPPER
70S ALONG IMMEDIATE COAST OF E MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSEASONABLY HOT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
* A BIT COOLER FRI INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL
* MAINLY DRY OTHER THEN PERHAPS A SPOT SHOWER/STORM THU

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
ANOMALOUS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA BY THE MID TO
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK LASTING INTO LABOR DAY. ONLY CAVEAT IS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY WHICH COULD BRING A FEW STORMS TO
THE REGION. THIS FRONT COULD ALSO COOL TEMPS DOWN ON FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH VERY LITTLE
APPRECIABLE RAIN.

DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUMMER RETURNS AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THIS PERIOD.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST OF THE WEEK AS THE
AXIS OF THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. 850MB TEMPS WILL BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL REACHING AROUND 18-20C. WHICH WILL LEAD TO HIGH TEMPS
IN THE U80S TO L90S...AND EVEN A FEW LOCATIONS REACHING THE MID 90S!
THIS COULD POTENTIAL LEAD TO THE CT RIVER VALLEY SEEING A 3 TO 4
DAYS HEAT WAVE...BEGINNING TODAY. OVERALL PRECIP CHANCES WILL LOW
DURING THE PERIOD THANKS TO THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE. HOWEVER
POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE MARITIMES WILL BRING A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT THROUGH ON THURSDAY. THIS COULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THANKS TO THE SOUPY AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A COOL DOWN IS ANTICIPATED ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE STABLE BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT. IN FACT HIGHS MAY STAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. THIS
WILL BE A WELCOME FEEL COMPARED TO THE LOW TO MID 90S POSSIBLE ON
THURSDAY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AGAIN VERY
LITTLE RAIN IS ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

18Z UPDATE...

TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR. BREEZY W-WINDS THROUGH EVENING. PATCHY IFR FOG IN TYPICALLY
PRONE LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT. LIGHT W-WINDS WITH SEA- BREEZES LIKELY
TUESDAY. PATCHY POSSIBLY WIDESPREAD IFR FOG INTO WEDNESDAY MORN.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE LIKELY BY
LATE-MORNING TUESDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. COULD SEE VERY LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.PASSING FRONT MAY TRIGGER A SPOT SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO...BUT ODDS ARE AGAINST ANYTHING WIDESPREAD.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

2 PM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES.

INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL RESULT IN SW GUSTS AROUND 20 KT
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS BUT THERE IS A LOW PROB OF SEAS BUILDING TO
5 FT OVER SOUTHERN WATERS LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. WINDS
SHIFT TO LIGHT NORTH LATE TONIGHT THEN BECOMING E/SE TUE AFTERNOON
WITH SUBSIDING SEAS.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD THROUGH THE PERIOD. NEAR SHORE WATERS MAY
GUSTS TO NEAR 15KTS EACH DAY. SCA ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH ON THURSDAY SWITCHING THE WESTERLY
WINDS TO THE EAST. OTHERWISE TRANQUIL BOATING WEATHER.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 311743
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
143 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HOT AND HUMID TODAY...THEN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BRING
COOLER WEATHER TUESDAY MAINLY JUST TO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.
UNSEASONABLY HOT WEATHER RETURNS TO MOST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING SLIGHTLY
COOLER WEATHER FRIDAY INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER CONTINUING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

2 PM UPDATE...

SOME SHOWERS POPPING UP W OF OUR AREA WITHIN THE BROADER CYCLONIC
FLOW AND ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF WHAT APPEARS TO BE A FAVORABLE
AREA OF POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION IN A REGION OF STRONG DAYTIME
HEATING. SHOWERS STRUGGLING WITHIN THE OVERALL DRY AIRMASS. COULD
WE SEE SOME OF THIS ENERGY INTO OUR REGION? WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
THOUGH ISOLATED. GREATER CHANCE ALONG A THIN FINE-LINE OBSERVED
VIA RADAR ALONG THE IMMEDATE COAST OF CT AND PER LOCAL OBS. CAN
SEE SOME LOCALIZED CONVERGENT FLOW. THAT LINE DOES EXTEND ON UP
THE COASTLINE INTO BUZZARDS BAY. WILL MONITOR THIS CLOSELY. AGAIN
ANY ACTIVITY LOCALIZED AND ISOLATED. LITTLE IMPACT.

REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST ON TRACK. SCATTERED-BROKEN MID- TO
HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD DECKS. HIGHS WARMING INTO THE UPPER-80S TO LOW-
90S. BREEZY W-WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...

TONIGHT...
WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL MOVE S INTO SNE LATE TONIGHT. MAIN
EFFECT WILL BE A WIND SHIFT TO LIGHT N WINDS AND DRYING IN THE
LOW LEVELS. NOTING KI VALUES CRASHING BELOW ZERO 06-12Z. DRY
CONDITIONS AND MOCLEAR SKIES EXPECTED. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN
IN NORMALLY PRONE LOCATIONS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70
DEGREES.

TUESDAY...
THE WEAK FRONT WILL LIKELY MIX OUT DURING THE DAY AS WEAK AREA OF
HIGH PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. VERY DRY AIR IN THE MID
LEVELS WILL RESULT IN LOTS OF SUNSHINE. SEABREEZES WILL QUICKLY
DEVELOP ON BOTH COASTS WITH COOLER TEMPS ESPECIALLY ACROSS E
COASTAL MA...BUT NOT MUCH COOLER CT VALLEY. TEMPS WILL REACH MID
TO UPPER 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST AND NEAR 90 CT VALLEY...BUT UPPER
70S ALONG IMMEDIATE COAST OF E MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSEASONABLY HOT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
* A BIT COOLER FRI INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL
* MAINLY DRY OTHER THEN PERHAPS A SPOT SHOWER/STORM THU

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
ANOMALOUS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA BY THE MID TO
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK LASTING INTO LABOR DAY. ONLY CAVEAT IS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY WHICH COULD BRING A FEW STORMS TO
THE REGION. THIS FRONT COULD ALSO COOL TEMPS DOWN ON FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH VERY LITTLE
APPRECIABLE RAIN.

DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUMMER RETURNS AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THIS PERIOD.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST OF THE WEEK AS THE
AXIS OF THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. 850MB TEMPS WILL BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL REACHING AROUND 18-20C. WHICH WILL LEAD TO HIGH TEMPS
IN THE U80S TO L90S...AND EVEN A FEW LOCATIONS REACHING THE MID 90S!
THIS COULD POTENTIAL LEAD TO THE CT RIVER VALLEY SEEING A 3 TO 4
DAYS HEAT WAVE...BEGINNING TODAY. OVERALL PRECIP CHANCES WILL LOW
DURING THE PERIOD THANKS TO THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE. HOWEVER
POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE MARITIMES WILL BRING A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT THROUGH ON THURSDAY. THIS COULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THANKS TO THE SOUPY AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A COOL DOWN IS ANTICIPATED ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE STABLE BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT. IN FACT HIGHS MAY STAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. THIS
WILL BE A WELCOME FEEL COMPARED TO THE LOW TO MID 90S POSSIBLE ON
THURSDAY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AGAIN VERY
LITTLE RAIN IS ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

18Z UPDATE...

TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR. BREEZY W-WINDS THROUGH EVENING. PATCHY IFR FOG IN TYPICALLY
PRONE LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT. LIGHT W-WINDS WITH SEA- BREEZES LIKELY
TUESDAY. PATCHY POSSIBLY WIDESPREAD IFR FOG INTO WEDNESDAY MORN.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE LIKELY BY
LATE-MORNING TUESDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. COULD SEE VERY LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.PASSING FRONT MAY TRIGGER A SPOT SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO...BUT ODDS ARE AGAINST ANYTHING WIDESPREAD.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

2 PM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES.

INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL RESULT IN SW GUSTS AROUND 20 KT
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS BUT THERE IS A LOW PROB OF SEAS BUILDING TO
5 FT OVER SOUTHERN WATERS LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. WINDS
SHIFT TO LIGHT NORTH LATE TONIGHT THEN BECOMING E/SE TUE AFTERNOON
WITH SUBSIDING SEAS.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD THROUGH THE PERIOD. NEAR SHORE WATERS MAY
GUSTS TO NEAR 15KTS EACH DAY. SCA ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH ON THURSDAY SWITCHING THE WESTERLY
WINDS TO THE EAST. OTHERWISE TRANQUIL BOATING WEATHER.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 311743
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
143 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HOT AND HUMID TODAY...THEN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BRING
COOLER WEATHER TUESDAY MAINLY JUST TO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.
UNSEASONABLY HOT WEATHER RETURNS TO MOST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING SLIGHTLY
COOLER WEATHER FRIDAY INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER CONTINUING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

2 PM UPDATE...

SOME SHOWERS POPPING UP W OF OUR AREA WITHIN THE BROADER CYCLONIC
FLOW AND ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF WHAT APPEARS TO BE A FAVORABLE
AREA OF POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION IN A REGION OF STRONG DAYTIME
HEATING. SHOWERS STRUGGLING WITHIN THE OVERALL DRY AIRMASS. COULD
WE SEE SOME OF THIS ENERGY INTO OUR REGION? WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
THOUGH ISOLATED. GREATER CHANCE ALONG A THIN FINE-LINE OBSERVED
VIA RADAR ALONG THE IMMEDATE COAST OF CT AND PER LOCAL OBS. CAN
SEE SOME LOCALIZED CONVERGENT FLOW. THAT LINE DOES EXTEND ON UP
THE COASTLINE INTO BUZZARDS BAY. WILL MONITOR THIS CLOSELY. AGAIN
ANY ACTIVITY LOCALIZED AND ISOLATED. LITTLE IMPACT.

REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST ON TRACK. SCATTERED-BROKEN MID- TO
HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD DECKS. HIGHS WARMING INTO THE UPPER-80S TO LOW-
90S. BREEZY W-WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...

TONIGHT...
WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL MOVE S INTO SNE LATE TONIGHT. MAIN
EFFECT WILL BE A WIND SHIFT TO LIGHT N WINDS AND DRYING IN THE
LOW LEVELS. NOTING KI VALUES CRASHING BELOW ZERO 06-12Z. DRY
CONDITIONS AND MOCLEAR SKIES EXPECTED. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN
IN NORMALLY PRONE LOCATIONS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70
DEGREES.

TUESDAY...
THE WEAK FRONT WILL LIKELY MIX OUT DURING THE DAY AS WEAK AREA OF
HIGH PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. VERY DRY AIR IN THE MID
LEVELS WILL RESULT IN LOTS OF SUNSHINE. SEABREEZES WILL QUICKLY
DEVELOP ON BOTH COASTS WITH COOLER TEMPS ESPECIALLY ACROSS E
COASTAL MA...BUT NOT MUCH COOLER CT VALLEY. TEMPS WILL REACH MID
TO UPPER 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST AND NEAR 90 CT VALLEY...BUT UPPER
70S ALONG IMMEDIATE COAST OF E MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSEASONABLY HOT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
* A BIT COOLER FRI INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL
* MAINLY DRY OTHER THEN PERHAPS A SPOT SHOWER/STORM THU

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
ANOMALOUS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA BY THE MID TO
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK LASTING INTO LABOR DAY. ONLY CAVEAT IS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY WHICH COULD BRING A FEW STORMS TO
THE REGION. THIS FRONT COULD ALSO COOL TEMPS DOWN ON FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH VERY LITTLE
APPRECIABLE RAIN.

DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUMMER RETURNS AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THIS PERIOD.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST OF THE WEEK AS THE
AXIS OF THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. 850MB TEMPS WILL BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL REACHING AROUND 18-20C. WHICH WILL LEAD TO HIGH TEMPS
IN THE U80S TO L90S...AND EVEN A FEW LOCATIONS REACHING THE MID 90S!
THIS COULD POTENTIAL LEAD TO THE CT RIVER VALLEY SEEING A 3 TO 4
DAYS HEAT WAVE...BEGINNING TODAY. OVERALL PRECIP CHANCES WILL LOW
DURING THE PERIOD THANKS TO THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE. HOWEVER
POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE MARITIMES WILL BRING A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT THROUGH ON THURSDAY. THIS COULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THANKS TO THE SOUPY AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A COOL DOWN IS ANTICIPATED ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE STABLE BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT. IN FACT HIGHS MAY STAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. THIS
WILL BE A WELCOME FEEL COMPARED TO THE LOW TO MID 90S POSSIBLE ON
THURSDAY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AGAIN VERY
LITTLE RAIN IS ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

18Z UPDATE...

TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR. BREEZY W-WINDS THROUGH EVENING. PATCHY IFR FOG IN TYPICALLY
PRONE LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT. LIGHT W-WINDS WITH SEA- BREEZES LIKELY
TUESDAY. PATCHY POSSIBLY WIDESPREAD IFR FOG INTO WEDNESDAY MORN.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE LIKELY BY
LATE-MORNING TUESDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. COULD SEE VERY LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.PASSING FRONT MAY TRIGGER A SPOT SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO...BUT ODDS ARE AGAINST ANYTHING WIDESPREAD.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

2 PM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES.

INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL RESULT IN SW GUSTS AROUND 20 KT
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS BUT THERE IS A LOW PROB OF SEAS BUILDING TO
5 FT OVER SOUTHERN WATERS LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. WINDS
SHIFT TO LIGHT NORTH LATE TONIGHT THEN BECOMING E/SE TUE AFTERNOON
WITH SUBSIDING SEAS.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD THROUGH THE PERIOD. NEAR SHORE WATERS MAY
GUSTS TO NEAR 15KTS EACH DAY. SCA ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH ON THURSDAY SWITCHING THE WESTERLY
WINDS TO THE EAST. OTHERWISE TRANQUIL BOATING WEATHER.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 311743
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
143 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HOT AND HUMID TODAY...THEN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BRING
COOLER WEATHER TUESDAY MAINLY JUST TO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.
UNSEASONABLY HOT WEATHER RETURNS TO MOST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING SLIGHTLY
COOLER WEATHER FRIDAY INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER CONTINUING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

2 PM UPDATE...

SOME SHOWERS POPPING UP W OF OUR AREA WITHIN THE BROADER CYCLONIC
FLOW AND ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF WHAT APPEARS TO BE A FAVORABLE
AREA OF POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION IN A REGION OF STRONG DAYTIME
HEATING. SHOWERS STRUGGLING WITHIN THE OVERALL DRY AIRMASS. COULD
WE SEE SOME OF THIS ENERGY INTO OUR REGION? WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
THOUGH ISOLATED. GREATER CHANCE ALONG A THIN FINE-LINE OBSERVED
VIA RADAR ALONG THE IMMEDATE COAST OF CT AND PER LOCAL OBS. CAN
SEE SOME LOCALIZED CONVERGENT FLOW. THAT LINE DOES EXTEND ON UP
THE COASTLINE INTO BUZZARDS BAY. WILL MONITOR THIS CLOSELY. AGAIN
ANY ACTIVITY LOCALIZED AND ISOLATED. LITTLE IMPACT.

REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST ON TRACK. SCATTERED-BROKEN MID- TO
HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD DECKS. HIGHS WARMING INTO THE UPPER-80S TO LOW-
90S. BREEZY W-WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...

TONIGHT...
WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL MOVE S INTO SNE LATE TONIGHT. MAIN
EFFECT WILL BE A WIND SHIFT TO LIGHT N WINDS AND DRYING IN THE
LOW LEVELS. NOTING KI VALUES CRASHING BELOW ZERO 06-12Z. DRY
CONDITIONS AND MOCLEAR SKIES EXPECTED. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN
IN NORMALLY PRONE LOCATIONS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70
DEGREES.

TUESDAY...
THE WEAK FRONT WILL LIKELY MIX OUT DURING THE DAY AS WEAK AREA OF
HIGH PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. VERY DRY AIR IN THE MID
LEVELS WILL RESULT IN LOTS OF SUNSHINE. SEABREEZES WILL QUICKLY
DEVELOP ON BOTH COASTS WITH COOLER TEMPS ESPECIALLY ACROSS E
COASTAL MA...BUT NOT MUCH COOLER CT VALLEY. TEMPS WILL REACH MID
TO UPPER 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST AND NEAR 90 CT VALLEY...BUT UPPER
70S ALONG IMMEDIATE COAST OF E MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSEASONABLY HOT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
* A BIT COOLER FRI INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL
* MAINLY DRY OTHER THEN PERHAPS A SPOT SHOWER/STORM THU

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
ANOMALOUS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA BY THE MID TO
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK LASTING INTO LABOR DAY. ONLY CAVEAT IS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY WHICH COULD BRING A FEW STORMS TO
THE REGION. THIS FRONT COULD ALSO COOL TEMPS DOWN ON FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH VERY LITTLE
APPRECIABLE RAIN.

DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUMMER RETURNS AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THIS PERIOD.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST OF THE WEEK AS THE
AXIS OF THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. 850MB TEMPS WILL BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL REACHING AROUND 18-20C. WHICH WILL LEAD TO HIGH TEMPS
IN THE U80S TO L90S...AND EVEN A FEW LOCATIONS REACHING THE MID 90S!
THIS COULD POTENTIAL LEAD TO THE CT RIVER VALLEY SEEING A 3 TO 4
DAYS HEAT WAVE...BEGINNING TODAY. OVERALL PRECIP CHANCES WILL LOW
DURING THE PERIOD THANKS TO THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE. HOWEVER
POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE MARITIMES WILL BRING A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT THROUGH ON THURSDAY. THIS COULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THANKS TO THE SOUPY AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A COOL DOWN IS ANTICIPATED ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE STABLE BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT. IN FACT HIGHS MAY STAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. THIS
WILL BE A WELCOME FEEL COMPARED TO THE LOW TO MID 90S POSSIBLE ON
THURSDAY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AGAIN VERY
LITTLE RAIN IS ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

18Z UPDATE...

TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR. BREEZY W-WINDS THROUGH EVENING. PATCHY IFR FOG IN TYPICALLY
PRONE LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT. LIGHT W-WINDS WITH SEA- BREEZES LIKELY
TUESDAY. PATCHY POSSIBLY WIDESPREAD IFR FOG INTO WEDNESDAY MORN.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE LIKELY BY
LATE-MORNING TUESDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. COULD SEE VERY LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.PASSING FRONT MAY TRIGGER A SPOT SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO...BUT ODDS ARE AGAINST ANYTHING WIDESPREAD.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

2 PM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES.

INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL RESULT IN SW GUSTS AROUND 20 KT
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS BUT THERE IS A LOW PROB OF SEAS BUILDING TO
5 FT OVER SOUTHERN WATERS LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. WINDS
SHIFT TO LIGHT NORTH LATE TONIGHT THEN BECOMING E/SE TUE AFTERNOON
WITH SUBSIDING SEAS.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD THROUGH THE PERIOD. NEAR SHORE WATERS MAY
GUSTS TO NEAR 15KTS EACH DAY. SCA ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH ON THURSDAY SWITCHING THE WESTERLY
WINDS TO THE EAST. OTHERWISE TRANQUIL BOATING WEATHER.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 311743
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
143 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HOT AND HUMID TODAY...THEN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BRING
COOLER WEATHER TUESDAY MAINLY JUST TO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.
UNSEASONABLY HOT WEATHER RETURNS TO MOST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING SLIGHTLY
COOLER WEATHER FRIDAY INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER CONTINUING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

2 PM UPDATE...

SOME SHOWERS POPPING UP W OF OUR AREA WITHIN THE BROADER CYCLONIC
FLOW AND ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF WHAT APPEARS TO BE A FAVORABLE
AREA OF POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION IN A REGION OF STRONG DAYTIME
HEATING. SHOWERS STRUGGLING WITHIN THE OVERALL DRY AIRMASS. COULD
WE SEE SOME OF THIS ENERGY INTO OUR REGION? WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
THOUGH ISOLATED. GREATER CHANCE ALONG A THIN FINE-LINE OBSERVED
VIA RADAR ALONG THE IMMEDATE COAST OF CT AND PER LOCAL OBS. CAN
SEE SOME LOCALIZED CONVERGENT FLOW. THAT LINE DOES EXTEND ON UP
THE COASTLINE INTO BUZZARDS BAY. WILL MONITOR THIS CLOSELY. AGAIN
ANY ACTIVITY LOCALIZED AND ISOLATED. LITTLE IMPACT.

REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST ON TRACK. SCATTERED-BROKEN MID- TO
HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD DECKS. HIGHS WARMING INTO THE UPPER-80S TO LOW-
90S. BREEZY W-WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...

TONIGHT...
WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL MOVE S INTO SNE LATE TONIGHT. MAIN
EFFECT WILL BE A WIND SHIFT TO LIGHT N WINDS AND DRYING IN THE
LOW LEVELS. NOTING KI VALUES CRASHING BELOW ZERO 06-12Z. DRY
CONDITIONS AND MOCLEAR SKIES EXPECTED. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN
IN NORMALLY PRONE LOCATIONS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70
DEGREES.

TUESDAY...
THE WEAK FRONT WILL LIKELY MIX OUT DURING THE DAY AS WEAK AREA OF
HIGH PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. VERY DRY AIR IN THE MID
LEVELS WILL RESULT IN LOTS OF SUNSHINE. SEABREEZES WILL QUICKLY
DEVELOP ON BOTH COASTS WITH COOLER TEMPS ESPECIALLY ACROSS E
COASTAL MA...BUT NOT MUCH COOLER CT VALLEY. TEMPS WILL REACH MID
TO UPPER 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST AND NEAR 90 CT VALLEY...BUT UPPER
70S ALONG IMMEDIATE COAST OF E MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSEASONABLY HOT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
* A BIT COOLER FRI INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL
* MAINLY DRY OTHER THEN PERHAPS A SPOT SHOWER/STORM THU

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
ANOMALOUS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA BY THE MID TO
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK LASTING INTO LABOR DAY. ONLY CAVEAT IS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY WHICH COULD BRING A FEW STORMS TO
THE REGION. THIS FRONT COULD ALSO COOL TEMPS DOWN ON FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH VERY LITTLE
APPRECIABLE RAIN.

DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUMMER RETURNS AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THIS PERIOD.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST OF THE WEEK AS THE
AXIS OF THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. 850MB TEMPS WILL BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL REACHING AROUND 18-20C. WHICH WILL LEAD TO HIGH TEMPS
IN THE U80S TO L90S...AND EVEN A FEW LOCATIONS REACHING THE MID 90S!
THIS COULD POTENTIAL LEAD TO THE CT RIVER VALLEY SEEING A 3 TO 4
DAYS HEAT WAVE...BEGINNING TODAY. OVERALL PRECIP CHANCES WILL LOW
DURING THE PERIOD THANKS TO THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE. HOWEVER
POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE MARITIMES WILL BRING A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT THROUGH ON THURSDAY. THIS COULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THANKS TO THE SOUPY AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A COOL DOWN IS ANTICIPATED ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE STABLE BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT. IN FACT HIGHS MAY STAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. THIS
WILL BE A WELCOME FEEL COMPARED TO THE LOW TO MID 90S POSSIBLE ON
THURSDAY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AGAIN VERY
LITTLE RAIN IS ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

18Z UPDATE...

TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR. BREEZY W-WINDS THROUGH EVENING. PATCHY IFR FOG IN TYPICALLY
PRONE LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT. LIGHT W-WINDS WITH SEA- BREEZES LIKELY
TUESDAY. PATCHY POSSIBLY WIDESPREAD IFR FOG INTO WEDNESDAY MORN.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE LIKELY BY
LATE-MORNING TUESDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. COULD SEE VERY LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.PASSING FRONT MAY TRIGGER A SPOT SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO...BUT ODDS ARE AGAINST ANYTHING WIDESPREAD.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

2 PM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES.

INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL RESULT IN SW GUSTS AROUND 20 KT
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS BUT THERE IS A LOW PROB OF SEAS BUILDING TO
5 FT OVER SOUTHERN WATERS LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. WINDS
SHIFT TO LIGHT NORTH LATE TONIGHT THEN BECOMING E/SE TUE AFTERNOON
WITH SUBSIDING SEAS.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD THROUGH THE PERIOD. NEAR SHORE WATERS MAY
GUSTS TO NEAR 15KTS EACH DAY. SCA ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH ON THURSDAY SWITCHING THE WESTERLY
WINDS TO THE EAST. OTHERWISE TRANQUIL BOATING WEATHER.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 311743
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
143 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HOT AND HUMID TODAY...THEN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BRING
COOLER WEATHER TUESDAY MAINLY JUST TO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.
UNSEASONABLY HOT WEATHER RETURNS TO MOST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING SLIGHTLY
COOLER WEATHER FRIDAY INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER CONTINUING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

2 PM UPDATE...

SOME SHOWERS POPPING UP W OF OUR AREA WITHIN THE BROADER CYCLONIC
FLOW AND ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF WHAT APPEARS TO BE A FAVORABLE
AREA OF POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION IN A REGION OF STRONG DAYTIME
HEATING. SHOWERS STRUGGLING WITHIN THE OVERALL DRY AIRMASS. COULD
WE SEE SOME OF THIS ENERGY INTO OUR REGION? WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
THOUGH ISOLATED. GREATER CHANCE ALONG A THIN FINE-LINE OBSERVED
VIA RADAR ALONG THE IMMEDATE COAST OF CT AND PER LOCAL OBS. CAN
SEE SOME LOCALIZED CONVERGENT FLOW. THAT LINE DOES EXTEND ON UP
THE COASTLINE INTO BUZZARDS BAY. WILL MONITOR THIS CLOSELY. AGAIN
ANY ACTIVITY LOCALIZED AND ISOLATED. LITTLE IMPACT.

REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST ON TRACK. SCATTERED-BROKEN MID- TO
HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD DECKS. HIGHS WARMING INTO THE UPPER-80S TO LOW-
90S. BREEZY W-WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...

TONIGHT...
WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL MOVE S INTO SNE LATE TONIGHT. MAIN
EFFECT WILL BE A WIND SHIFT TO LIGHT N WINDS AND DRYING IN THE
LOW LEVELS. NOTING KI VALUES CRASHING BELOW ZERO 06-12Z. DRY
CONDITIONS AND MOCLEAR SKIES EXPECTED. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN
IN NORMALLY PRONE LOCATIONS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70
DEGREES.

TUESDAY...
THE WEAK FRONT WILL LIKELY MIX OUT DURING THE DAY AS WEAK AREA OF
HIGH PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. VERY DRY AIR IN THE MID
LEVELS WILL RESULT IN LOTS OF SUNSHINE. SEABREEZES WILL QUICKLY
DEVELOP ON BOTH COASTS WITH COOLER TEMPS ESPECIALLY ACROSS E
COASTAL MA...BUT NOT MUCH COOLER CT VALLEY. TEMPS WILL REACH MID
TO UPPER 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST AND NEAR 90 CT VALLEY...BUT UPPER
70S ALONG IMMEDIATE COAST OF E MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSEASONABLY HOT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
* A BIT COOLER FRI INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL
* MAINLY DRY OTHER THEN PERHAPS A SPOT SHOWER/STORM THU

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
ANOMALOUS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA BY THE MID TO
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK LASTING INTO LABOR DAY. ONLY CAVEAT IS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY WHICH COULD BRING A FEW STORMS TO
THE REGION. THIS FRONT COULD ALSO COOL TEMPS DOWN ON FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH VERY LITTLE
APPRECIABLE RAIN.

DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUMMER RETURNS AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THIS PERIOD.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST OF THE WEEK AS THE
AXIS OF THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. 850MB TEMPS WILL BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL REACHING AROUND 18-20C. WHICH WILL LEAD TO HIGH TEMPS
IN THE U80S TO L90S...AND EVEN A FEW LOCATIONS REACHING THE MID 90S!
THIS COULD POTENTIAL LEAD TO THE CT RIVER VALLEY SEEING A 3 TO 4
DAYS HEAT WAVE...BEGINNING TODAY. OVERALL PRECIP CHANCES WILL LOW
DURING THE PERIOD THANKS TO THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE. HOWEVER
POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE MARITIMES WILL BRING A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT THROUGH ON THURSDAY. THIS COULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THANKS TO THE SOUPY AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A COOL DOWN IS ANTICIPATED ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE STABLE BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT. IN FACT HIGHS MAY STAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. THIS
WILL BE A WELCOME FEEL COMPARED TO THE LOW TO MID 90S POSSIBLE ON
THURSDAY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AGAIN VERY
LITTLE RAIN IS ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

18Z UPDATE...

TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR. BREEZY W-WINDS THROUGH EVENING. PATCHY IFR FOG IN TYPICALLY
PRONE LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT. LIGHT W-WINDS WITH SEA- BREEZES LIKELY
TUESDAY. PATCHY POSSIBLY WIDESPREAD IFR FOG INTO WEDNESDAY MORN.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE LIKELY BY
LATE-MORNING TUESDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. COULD SEE VERY LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.PASSING FRONT MAY TRIGGER A SPOT SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO...BUT ODDS ARE AGAINST ANYTHING WIDESPREAD.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

2 PM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES.

INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL RESULT IN SW GUSTS AROUND 20 KT
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS BUT THERE IS A LOW PROB OF SEAS BUILDING TO
5 FT OVER SOUTHERN WATERS LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. WINDS
SHIFT TO LIGHT NORTH LATE TONIGHT THEN BECOMING E/SE TUE AFTERNOON
WITH SUBSIDING SEAS.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD THROUGH THE PERIOD. NEAR SHORE WATERS MAY
GUSTS TO NEAR 15KTS EACH DAY. SCA ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH ON THURSDAY SWITCHING THE WESTERLY
WINDS TO THE EAST. OTHERWISE TRANQUIL BOATING WEATHER.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 311743
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
143 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HOT AND HUMID TODAY...THEN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BRING
COOLER WEATHER TUESDAY MAINLY JUST TO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.
UNSEASONABLY HOT WEATHER RETURNS TO MOST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING SLIGHTLY
COOLER WEATHER FRIDAY INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER CONTINUING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

2 PM UPDATE...

SOME SHOWERS POPPING UP W OF OUR AREA WITHIN THE BROADER CYCLONIC
FLOW AND ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF WHAT APPEARS TO BE A FAVORABLE
AREA OF POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION IN A REGION OF STRONG DAYTIME
HEATING. SHOWERS STRUGGLING WITHIN THE OVERALL DRY AIRMASS. COULD
WE SEE SOME OF THIS ENERGY INTO OUR REGION? WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
THOUGH ISOLATED. GREATER CHANCE ALONG A THIN FINE-LINE OBSERVED
VIA RADAR ALONG THE IMMEDATE COAST OF CT AND PER LOCAL OBS. CAN
SEE SOME LOCALIZED CONVERGENT FLOW. THAT LINE DOES EXTEND ON UP
THE COASTLINE INTO BUZZARDS BAY. WILL MONITOR THIS CLOSELY. AGAIN
ANY ACTIVITY LOCALIZED AND ISOLATED. LITTLE IMPACT.

REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST ON TRACK. SCATTERED-BROKEN MID- TO
HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD DECKS. HIGHS WARMING INTO THE UPPER-80S TO LOW-
90S. BREEZY W-WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...

TONIGHT...
WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL MOVE S INTO SNE LATE TONIGHT. MAIN
EFFECT WILL BE A WIND SHIFT TO LIGHT N WINDS AND DRYING IN THE
LOW LEVELS. NOTING KI VALUES CRASHING BELOW ZERO 06-12Z. DRY
CONDITIONS AND MOCLEAR SKIES EXPECTED. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN
IN NORMALLY PRONE LOCATIONS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70
DEGREES.

TUESDAY...
THE WEAK FRONT WILL LIKELY MIX OUT DURING THE DAY AS WEAK AREA OF
HIGH PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. VERY DRY AIR IN THE MID
LEVELS WILL RESULT IN LOTS OF SUNSHINE. SEABREEZES WILL QUICKLY
DEVELOP ON BOTH COASTS WITH COOLER TEMPS ESPECIALLY ACROSS E
COASTAL MA...BUT NOT MUCH COOLER CT VALLEY. TEMPS WILL REACH MID
TO UPPER 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST AND NEAR 90 CT VALLEY...BUT UPPER
70S ALONG IMMEDIATE COAST OF E MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSEASONABLY HOT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
* A BIT COOLER FRI INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL
* MAINLY DRY OTHER THEN PERHAPS A SPOT SHOWER/STORM THU

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
ANOMALOUS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA BY THE MID TO
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK LASTING INTO LABOR DAY. ONLY CAVEAT IS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY WHICH COULD BRING A FEW STORMS TO
THE REGION. THIS FRONT COULD ALSO COOL TEMPS DOWN ON FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH VERY LITTLE
APPRECIABLE RAIN.

DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUMMER RETURNS AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THIS PERIOD.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST OF THE WEEK AS THE
AXIS OF THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. 850MB TEMPS WILL BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL REACHING AROUND 18-20C. WHICH WILL LEAD TO HIGH TEMPS
IN THE U80S TO L90S...AND EVEN A FEW LOCATIONS REACHING THE MID 90S!
THIS COULD POTENTIAL LEAD TO THE CT RIVER VALLEY SEEING A 3 TO 4
DAYS HEAT WAVE...BEGINNING TODAY. OVERALL PRECIP CHANCES WILL LOW
DURING THE PERIOD THANKS TO THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE. HOWEVER
POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE MARITIMES WILL BRING A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT THROUGH ON THURSDAY. THIS COULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THANKS TO THE SOUPY AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A COOL DOWN IS ANTICIPATED ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE STABLE BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT. IN FACT HIGHS MAY STAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. THIS
WILL BE A WELCOME FEEL COMPARED TO THE LOW TO MID 90S POSSIBLE ON
THURSDAY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AGAIN VERY
LITTLE RAIN IS ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

18Z UPDATE...

TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR. BREEZY W-WINDS THROUGH EVENING. PATCHY IFR FOG IN TYPICALLY
PRONE LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT. LIGHT W-WINDS WITH SEA- BREEZES LIKELY
TUESDAY. PATCHY POSSIBLY WIDESPREAD IFR FOG INTO WEDNESDAY MORN.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE LIKELY BY
LATE-MORNING TUESDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. COULD SEE VERY LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.PASSING FRONT MAY TRIGGER A SPOT SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO...BUT ODDS ARE AGAINST ANYTHING WIDESPREAD.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

2 PM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES.

INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL RESULT IN SW GUSTS AROUND 20 KT
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS BUT THERE IS A LOW PROB OF SEAS BUILDING TO
5 FT OVER SOUTHERN WATERS LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. WINDS
SHIFT TO LIGHT NORTH LATE TONIGHT THEN BECOMING E/SE TUE AFTERNOON
WITH SUBSIDING SEAS.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD THROUGH THE PERIOD. NEAR SHORE WATERS MAY
GUSTS TO NEAR 15KTS EACH DAY. SCA ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH ON THURSDAY SWITCHING THE WESTERLY
WINDS TO THE EAST. OTHERWISE TRANQUIL BOATING WEATHER.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 311743
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
143 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HOT AND HUMID TODAY...THEN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BRING
COOLER WEATHER TUESDAY MAINLY JUST TO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.
UNSEASONABLY HOT WEATHER RETURNS TO MOST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING SLIGHTLY
COOLER WEATHER FRIDAY INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER CONTINUING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

2 PM UPDATE...

SOME SHOWERS POPPING UP W OF OUR AREA WITHIN THE BROADER CYCLONIC
FLOW AND ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF WHAT APPEARS TO BE A FAVORABLE
AREA OF POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION IN A REGION OF STRONG DAYTIME
HEATING. SHOWERS STRUGGLING WITHIN THE OVERALL DRY AIRMASS. COULD
WE SEE SOME OF THIS ENERGY INTO OUR REGION? WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
THOUGH ISOLATED. GREATER CHANCE ALONG A THIN FINE-LINE OBSERVED
VIA RADAR ALONG THE IMMEDATE COAST OF CT AND PER LOCAL OBS. CAN
SEE SOME LOCALIZED CONVERGENT FLOW. THAT LINE DOES EXTEND ON UP
THE COASTLINE INTO BUZZARDS BAY. WILL MONITOR THIS CLOSELY. AGAIN
ANY ACTIVITY LOCALIZED AND ISOLATED. LITTLE IMPACT.

REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST ON TRACK. SCATTERED-BROKEN MID- TO
HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD DECKS. HIGHS WARMING INTO THE UPPER-80S TO LOW-
90S. BREEZY W-WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...

TONIGHT...
WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL MOVE S INTO SNE LATE TONIGHT. MAIN
EFFECT WILL BE A WIND SHIFT TO LIGHT N WINDS AND DRYING IN THE
LOW LEVELS. NOTING KI VALUES CRASHING BELOW ZERO 06-12Z. DRY
CONDITIONS AND MOCLEAR SKIES EXPECTED. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN
IN NORMALLY PRONE LOCATIONS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70
DEGREES.

TUESDAY...
THE WEAK FRONT WILL LIKELY MIX OUT DURING THE DAY AS WEAK AREA OF
HIGH PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. VERY DRY AIR IN THE MID
LEVELS WILL RESULT IN LOTS OF SUNSHINE. SEABREEZES WILL QUICKLY
DEVELOP ON BOTH COASTS WITH COOLER TEMPS ESPECIALLY ACROSS E
COASTAL MA...BUT NOT MUCH COOLER CT VALLEY. TEMPS WILL REACH MID
TO UPPER 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST AND NEAR 90 CT VALLEY...BUT UPPER
70S ALONG IMMEDIATE COAST OF E MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSEASONABLY HOT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
* A BIT COOLER FRI INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL
* MAINLY DRY OTHER THEN PERHAPS A SPOT SHOWER/STORM THU

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
ANOMALOUS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA BY THE MID TO
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK LASTING INTO LABOR DAY. ONLY CAVEAT IS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY WHICH COULD BRING A FEW STORMS TO
THE REGION. THIS FRONT COULD ALSO COOL TEMPS DOWN ON FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH VERY LITTLE
APPRECIABLE RAIN.

DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUMMER RETURNS AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THIS PERIOD.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST OF THE WEEK AS THE
AXIS OF THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. 850MB TEMPS WILL BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL REACHING AROUND 18-20C. WHICH WILL LEAD TO HIGH TEMPS
IN THE U80S TO L90S...AND EVEN A FEW LOCATIONS REACHING THE MID 90S!
THIS COULD POTENTIAL LEAD TO THE CT RIVER VALLEY SEEING A 3 TO 4
DAYS HEAT WAVE...BEGINNING TODAY. OVERALL PRECIP CHANCES WILL LOW
DURING THE PERIOD THANKS TO THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE. HOWEVER
POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE MARITIMES WILL BRING A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT THROUGH ON THURSDAY. THIS COULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THANKS TO THE SOUPY AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A COOL DOWN IS ANTICIPATED ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE STABLE BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT. IN FACT HIGHS MAY STAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. THIS
WILL BE A WELCOME FEEL COMPARED TO THE LOW TO MID 90S POSSIBLE ON
THURSDAY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AGAIN VERY
LITTLE RAIN IS ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

18Z UPDATE...

TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR. BREEZY W-WINDS THROUGH EVENING. PATCHY IFR FOG IN TYPICALLY
PRONE LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT. LIGHT W-WINDS WITH SEA- BREEZES LIKELY
TUESDAY. PATCHY POSSIBLY WIDESPREAD IFR FOG INTO WEDNESDAY MORN.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE LIKELY BY
LATE-MORNING TUESDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. COULD SEE VERY LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.PASSING FRONT MAY TRIGGER A SPOT SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO...BUT ODDS ARE AGAINST ANYTHING WIDESPREAD.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

2 PM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES.

INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL RESULT IN SW GUSTS AROUND 20 KT
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS BUT THERE IS A LOW PROB OF SEAS BUILDING TO
5 FT OVER SOUTHERN WATERS LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. WINDS
SHIFT TO LIGHT NORTH LATE TONIGHT THEN BECOMING E/SE TUE AFTERNOON
WITH SUBSIDING SEAS.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD THROUGH THE PERIOD. NEAR SHORE WATERS MAY
GUSTS TO NEAR 15KTS EACH DAY. SCA ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH ON THURSDAY SWITCHING THE WESTERLY
WINDS TO THE EAST. OTHERWISE TRANQUIL BOATING WEATHER.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 311743
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
143 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HOT AND HUMID TODAY...THEN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BRING
COOLER WEATHER TUESDAY MAINLY JUST TO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.
UNSEASONABLY HOT WEATHER RETURNS TO MOST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING SLIGHTLY
COOLER WEATHER FRIDAY INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER CONTINUING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

2 PM UPDATE...

SOME SHOWERS POPPING UP W OF OUR AREA WITHIN THE BROADER CYCLONIC
FLOW AND ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF WHAT APPEARS TO BE A FAVORABLE
AREA OF POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION IN A REGION OF STRONG DAYTIME
HEATING. SHOWERS STRUGGLING WITHIN THE OVERALL DRY AIRMASS. COULD
WE SEE SOME OF THIS ENERGY INTO OUR REGION? WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
THOUGH ISOLATED. GREATER CHANCE ALONG A THIN FINE-LINE OBSERVED
VIA RADAR ALONG THE IMMEDATE COAST OF CT AND PER LOCAL OBS. CAN
SEE SOME LOCALIZED CONVERGENT FLOW. THAT LINE DOES EXTEND ON UP
THE COASTLINE INTO BUZZARDS BAY. WILL MONITOR THIS CLOSELY. AGAIN
ANY ACTIVITY LOCALIZED AND ISOLATED. LITTLE IMPACT.

REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST ON TRACK. SCATTERED-BROKEN MID- TO
HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD DECKS. HIGHS WARMING INTO THE UPPER-80S TO LOW-
90S. BREEZY W-WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...

TONIGHT...
WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL MOVE S INTO SNE LATE TONIGHT. MAIN
EFFECT WILL BE A WIND SHIFT TO LIGHT N WINDS AND DRYING IN THE
LOW LEVELS. NOTING KI VALUES CRASHING BELOW ZERO 06-12Z. DRY
CONDITIONS AND MOCLEAR SKIES EXPECTED. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN
IN NORMALLY PRONE LOCATIONS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70
DEGREES.

TUESDAY...
THE WEAK FRONT WILL LIKELY MIX OUT DURING THE DAY AS WEAK AREA OF
HIGH PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. VERY DRY AIR IN THE MID
LEVELS WILL RESULT IN LOTS OF SUNSHINE. SEABREEZES WILL QUICKLY
DEVELOP ON BOTH COASTS WITH COOLER TEMPS ESPECIALLY ACROSS E
COASTAL MA...BUT NOT MUCH COOLER CT VALLEY. TEMPS WILL REACH MID
TO UPPER 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST AND NEAR 90 CT VALLEY...BUT UPPER
70S ALONG IMMEDIATE COAST OF E MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSEASONABLY HOT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
* A BIT COOLER FRI INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL
* MAINLY DRY OTHER THEN PERHAPS A SPOT SHOWER/STORM THU

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
ANOMALOUS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA BY THE MID TO
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK LASTING INTO LABOR DAY. ONLY CAVEAT IS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY WHICH COULD BRING A FEW STORMS TO
THE REGION. THIS FRONT COULD ALSO COOL TEMPS DOWN ON FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH VERY LITTLE
APPRECIABLE RAIN.

DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUMMER RETURNS AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THIS PERIOD.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST OF THE WEEK AS THE
AXIS OF THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. 850MB TEMPS WILL BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL REACHING AROUND 18-20C. WHICH WILL LEAD TO HIGH TEMPS
IN THE U80S TO L90S...AND EVEN A FEW LOCATIONS REACHING THE MID 90S!
THIS COULD POTENTIAL LEAD TO THE CT RIVER VALLEY SEEING A 3 TO 4
DAYS HEAT WAVE...BEGINNING TODAY. OVERALL PRECIP CHANCES WILL LOW
DURING THE PERIOD THANKS TO THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE. HOWEVER
POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE MARITIMES WILL BRING A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT THROUGH ON THURSDAY. THIS COULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THANKS TO THE SOUPY AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A COOL DOWN IS ANTICIPATED ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE STABLE BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT. IN FACT HIGHS MAY STAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. THIS
WILL BE A WELCOME FEEL COMPARED TO THE LOW TO MID 90S POSSIBLE ON
THURSDAY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AGAIN VERY
LITTLE RAIN IS ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

18Z UPDATE...

TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR. BREEZY W-WINDS THROUGH EVENING. PATCHY IFR FOG IN TYPICALLY
PRONE LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT. LIGHT W-WINDS WITH SEA- BREEZES LIKELY
TUESDAY. PATCHY POSSIBLY WIDESPREAD IFR FOG INTO WEDNESDAY MORN.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE LIKELY BY
LATE-MORNING TUESDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. COULD SEE VERY LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.PASSING FRONT MAY TRIGGER A SPOT SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO...BUT ODDS ARE AGAINST ANYTHING WIDESPREAD.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

2 PM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES.

INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL RESULT IN SW GUSTS AROUND 20 KT
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS BUT THERE IS A LOW PROB OF SEAS BUILDING TO
5 FT OVER SOUTHERN WATERS LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. WINDS
SHIFT TO LIGHT NORTH LATE TONIGHT THEN BECOMING E/SE TUE AFTERNOON
WITH SUBSIDING SEAS.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD THROUGH THE PERIOD. NEAR SHORE WATERS MAY
GUSTS TO NEAR 15KTS EACH DAY. SCA ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH ON THURSDAY SWITCHING THE WESTERLY
WINDS TO THE EAST. OTHERWISE TRANQUIL BOATING WEATHER.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 311743
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
143 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HOT AND HUMID TODAY...THEN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BRING
COOLER WEATHER TUESDAY MAINLY JUST TO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.
UNSEASONABLY HOT WEATHER RETURNS TO MOST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING SLIGHTLY
COOLER WEATHER FRIDAY INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER CONTINUING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

2 PM UPDATE...

SOME SHOWERS POPPING UP W OF OUR AREA WITHIN THE BROADER CYCLONIC
FLOW AND ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF WHAT APPEARS TO BE A FAVORABLE
AREA OF POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION IN A REGION OF STRONG DAYTIME
HEATING. SHOWERS STRUGGLING WITHIN THE OVERALL DRY AIRMASS. COULD
WE SEE SOME OF THIS ENERGY INTO OUR REGION? WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
THOUGH ISOLATED. GREATER CHANCE ALONG A THIN FINE-LINE OBSERVED
VIA RADAR ALONG THE IMMEDATE COAST OF CT AND PER LOCAL OBS. CAN
SEE SOME LOCALIZED CONVERGENT FLOW. THAT LINE DOES EXTEND ON UP
THE COASTLINE INTO BUZZARDS BAY. WILL MONITOR THIS CLOSELY. AGAIN
ANY ACTIVITY LOCALIZED AND ISOLATED. LITTLE IMPACT.

REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST ON TRACK. SCATTERED-BROKEN MID- TO
HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD DECKS. HIGHS WARMING INTO THE UPPER-80S TO LOW-
90S. BREEZY W-WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...

TONIGHT...
WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL MOVE S INTO SNE LATE TONIGHT. MAIN
EFFECT WILL BE A WIND SHIFT TO LIGHT N WINDS AND DRYING IN THE
LOW LEVELS. NOTING KI VALUES CRASHING BELOW ZERO 06-12Z. DRY
CONDITIONS AND MOCLEAR SKIES EXPECTED. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN
IN NORMALLY PRONE LOCATIONS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70
DEGREES.

TUESDAY...
THE WEAK FRONT WILL LIKELY MIX OUT DURING THE DAY AS WEAK AREA OF
HIGH PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. VERY DRY AIR IN THE MID
LEVELS WILL RESULT IN LOTS OF SUNSHINE. SEABREEZES WILL QUICKLY
DEVELOP ON BOTH COASTS WITH COOLER TEMPS ESPECIALLY ACROSS E
COASTAL MA...BUT NOT MUCH COOLER CT VALLEY. TEMPS WILL REACH MID
TO UPPER 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST AND NEAR 90 CT VALLEY...BUT UPPER
70S ALONG IMMEDIATE COAST OF E MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSEASONABLY HOT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
* A BIT COOLER FRI INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL
* MAINLY DRY OTHER THEN PERHAPS A SPOT SHOWER/STORM THU

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
ANOMALOUS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA BY THE MID TO
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK LASTING INTO LABOR DAY. ONLY CAVEAT IS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY WHICH COULD BRING A FEW STORMS TO
THE REGION. THIS FRONT COULD ALSO COOL TEMPS DOWN ON FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH VERY LITTLE
APPRECIABLE RAIN.

DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUMMER RETURNS AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THIS PERIOD.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST OF THE WEEK AS THE
AXIS OF THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. 850MB TEMPS WILL BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL REACHING AROUND 18-20C. WHICH WILL LEAD TO HIGH TEMPS
IN THE U80S TO L90S...AND EVEN A FEW LOCATIONS REACHING THE MID 90S!
THIS COULD POTENTIAL LEAD TO THE CT RIVER VALLEY SEEING A 3 TO 4
DAYS HEAT WAVE...BEGINNING TODAY. OVERALL PRECIP CHANCES WILL LOW
DURING THE PERIOD THANKS TO THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE. HOWEVER
POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE MARITIMES WILL BRING A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT THROUGH ON THURSDAY. THIS COULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THANKS TO THE SOUPY AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A COOL DOWN IS ANTICIPATED ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE STABLE BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT. IN FACT HIGHS MAY STAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. THIS
WILL BE A WELCOME FEEL COMPARED TO THE LOW TO MID 90S POSSIBLE ON
THURSDAY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AGAIN VERY
LITTLE RAIN IS ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

18Z UPDATE...

TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR. BREEZY W-WINDS THROUGH EVENING. PATCHY IFR FOG IN TYPICALLY
PRONE LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT. LIGHT W-WINDS WITH SEA- BREEZES LIKELY
TUESDAY. PATCHY POSSIBLY WIDESPREAD IFR FOG INTO WEDNESDAY MORN.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE LIKELY BY
LATE-MORNING TUESDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. COULD SEE VERY LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.PASSING FRONT MAY TRIGGER A SPOT SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO...BUT ODDS ARE AGAINST ANYTHING WIDESPREAD.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

2 PM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES.

INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL RESULT IN SW GUSTS AROUND 20 KT
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS BUT THERE IS A LOW PROB OF SEAS BUILDING TO
5 FT OVER SOUTHERN WATERS LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. WINDS
SHIFT TO LIGHT NORTH LATE TONIGHT THEN BECOMING E/SE TUE AFTERNOON
WITH SUBSIDING SEAS.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD THROUGH THE PERIOD. NEAR SHORE WATERS MAY
GUSTS TO NEAR 15KTS EACH DAY. SCA ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH ON THURSDAY SWITCHING THE WESTERLY
WINDS TO THE EAST. OTHERWISE TRANQUIL BOATING WEATHER.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KOKX 311741
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
141 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE OTHERWISE STRENGTHENS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST UPDATE TO KEEP BROKEN MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS IN
LONGER THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPS
TODAY A FEW DEGREES. STILL LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND
LOW 90S. WITH THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURES IN AND AROUND THE NYC METRO
AREA.

ALSO...A FEW SHOWERS HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP...MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST OF NYC. WILL CARRY A 20 POP FOR ISOLATED ACTIVITY.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. WITH
MINIMAL UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...NOT EXPECTING SHRA/TSRA...SO WILL
CARRY A DRY FORECAST. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...AND SFC DEWPOINTS WILL DROP A BIT...
GENERALLY FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S TO THE LOW TO MID 60S. WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS...SOME PATCHY FOG
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND
LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

HIGH PRES STRENGTHENS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. TEMPS DROP A BIT ON
TUESDAY AS COMPARED TO TODAY...BUT WILL STILL TOP OFF IN THE UPPER
80S TO AROUND 90 WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. BETTER
CHANCE FOR SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT AT THE COASTS ON TUESDAY AS SFC
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT DURING THE DAY. THE HEAT INDEX SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW 95 ON TUESDAY IN NYC.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE REPLACED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY
WILL CONTINUE AS AIR QUALITY DECREASES UNDER A STAGNANT DOME OF
HIGH PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE AT LEAST 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. ALTHO NOT IN THE LATEST FCST...CAN NOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED TSTM WED AFTN AND EVE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DAY TIME
THERMAL TROUGH.

DAY TIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S BOTH WED AND THU WITH HEAT
INDEX VALUES APPROACHING 95 DEGS ACROSS NYC AND URBAN NE NJ.

LATE THURSDAY-EARLY FRIDAY...A STRONGER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO PROVIDE SOME RELIEF INITIALLY IN THE FORM OF WIDELY SCT TSTMS
MAINLY THU AFTN - EVE. FCST A POP OF 20 PCT...WHICH MAY NEED TO BE
INCREASED IN LATER FORECASTS.

LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MARITIME POLAR AIR ON EAST WINDS REPLACES
THE MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP REGION WIDE...BUT ESPECIALLY
ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
TERMINALS INTO THIS EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY THROUGH 00Z. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE TERMINALS 06Z TO 11Z...THEN MOVES NORTHEAST AS A WARM
FRONT TUESDAY MORNING.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR FOG IS
POSSIBLE AT KSWF LATE TONIGHT.

THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WIND WILL BE FROM THE WEST TO
SOUTHWEST...AROUND 10 KT. OCCASIONAL GUSTS INTO THE UPPER TEENS ARE
POSSIBLE AT THE NYC TERMINALS.

AFTERWARD THE WIND FORECAST BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN WITH THE TIMING
OF THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT...AND THE SHIFT TO THE NORTH. WIND COULD
EVEN BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT LIKELY TUESDAY BY
MIDDAY.


   ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST. SEA
BREEZE LIKELY REMAINS SOUTH. OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KT THIS
AFTERNOON.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. OCCASIONAL
GUSTS UP TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. OCCASIONAL
GUSTS UP TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.


.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY AFTERNOON-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES
LIKELY.
.THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES PROBABLE.
.FRIDAY...VFR. ENE WINDS G15-20KT.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SW PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS TODAY BETWEEN AN APPROACHING BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT AND SFC HIGH PRES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC. WINDS AND SEAS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY/SCA LEVELS ON ALL
WATERS... BUT SEAS MAY BRIEFLY BUILD TO 5 FT ON THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN OCEAN WATERS THIS AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE...CONDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CONDS THROUGH THU.

LATE THU-THU NIGHT...WIDELY SCT TSTMS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

FRI...THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND
SEAS WILL OCCUR AS WINDS SHIFT FROM THE EAST AT 15-20 KT FOLLOWING
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT AS HIGH PRES MOVES EAST ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THU AFTN-EARLY FRI...WIDELY SCT TSTMS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH LESS THAN 1/4 INCH RAIN.

NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GC/MPS
NEAR TERM...BC
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...GC
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...GC/MPS
HYDROLOGY...GC/MPS




000
FXUS61 KOKX 311741
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
141 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE OTHERWISE STRENGTHENS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST UPDATE TO KEEP BROKEN MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS IN
LONGER THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPS
TODAY A FEW DEGREES. STILL LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND
LOW 90S. WITH THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURES IN AND AROUND THE NYC METRO
AREA.

ALSO...A FEW SHOWERS HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP...MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST OF NYC. WILL CARRY A 20 POP FOR ISOLATED ACTIVITY.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. WITH
MINIMAL UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...NOT EXPECTING SHRA/TSRA...SO WILL
CARRY A DRY FORECAST. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...AND SFC DEWPOINTS WILL DROP A BIT...
GENERALLY FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S TO THE LOW TO MID 60S. WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS...SOME PATCHY FOG
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND
LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

HIGH PRES STRENGTHENS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. TEMPS DROP A BIT ON
TUESDAY AS COMPARED TO TODAY...BUT WILL STILL TOP OFF IN THE UPPER
80S TO AROUND 90 WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. BETTER
CHANCE FOR SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT AT THE COASTS ON TUESDAY AS SFC
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT DURING THE DAY. THE HEAT INDEX SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW 95 ON TUESDAY IN NYC.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE REPLACED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY
WILL CONTINUE AS AIR QUALITY DECREASES UNDER A STAGNANT DOME OF
HIGH PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE AT LEAST 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. ALTHO NOT IN THE LATEST FCST...CAN NOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED TSTM WED AFTN AND EVE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DAY TIME
THERMAL TROUGH.

DAY TIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S BOTH WED AND THU WITH HEAT
INDEX VALUES APPROACHING 95 DEGS ACROSS NYC AND URBAN NE NJ.

LATE THURSDAY-EARLY FRIDAY...A STRONGER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO PROVIDE SOME RELIEF INITIALLY IN THE FORM OF WIDELY SCT TSTMS
MAINLY THU AFTN - EVE. FCST A POP OF 20 PCT...WHICH MAY NEED TO BE
INCREASED IN LATER FORECASTS.

LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MARITIME POLAR AIR ON EAST WINDS REPLACES
THE MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP REGION WIDE...BUT ESPECIALLY
ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
TERMINALS INTO THIS EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY THROUGH 00Z. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE TERMINALS 06Z TO 11Z...THEN MOVES NORTHEAST AS A WARM
FRONT TUESDAY MORNING.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR FOG IS
POSSIBLE AT KSWF LATE TONIGHT.

THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WIND WILL BE FROM THE WEST TO
SOUTHWEST...AROUND 10 KT. OCCASIONAL GUSTS INTO THE UPPER TEENS ARE
POSSIBLE AT THE NYC TERMINALS.

AFTERWARD THE WIND FORECAST BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN WITH THE TIMING
OF THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT...AND THE SHIFT TO THE NORTH. WIND COULD
EVEN BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT LIKELY TUESDAY BY
MIDDAY.


   ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST. SEA
BREEZE LIKELY REMAINS SOUTH. OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KT THIS
AFTERNOON.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. OCCASIONAL
GUSTS UP TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. OCCASIONAL
GUSTS UP TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.


.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY AFTERNOON-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES
LIKELY.
.THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES PROBABLE.
.FRIDAY...VFR. ENE WINDS G15-20KT.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SW PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS TODAY BETWEEN AN APPROACHING BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT AND SFC HIGH PRES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC. WINDS AND SEAS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY/SCA LEVELS ON ALL
WATERS... BUT SEAS MAY BRIEFLY BUILD TO 5 FT ON THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN OCEAN WATERS THIS AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE...CONDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CONDS THROUGH THU.

LATE THU-THU NIGHT...WIDELY SCT TSTMS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

FRI...THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND
SEAS WILL OCCUR AS WINDS SHIFT FROM THE EAST AT 15-20 KT FOLLOWING
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT AS HIGH PRES MOVES EAST ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THU AFTN-EARLY FRI...WIDELY SCT TSTMS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH LESS THAN 1/4 INCH RAIN.

NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GC/MPS
NEAR TERM...BC
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...GC
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...GC/MPS
HYDROLOGY...GC/MPS



000
FXUS61 KOKX 311741
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
141 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE OTHERWISE STRENGTHENS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST UPDATE TO KEEP BROKEN MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS IN
LONGER THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPS
TODAY A FEW DEGREES. STILL LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND
LOW 90S. WITH THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURES IN AND AROUND THE NYC METRO
AREA.

ALSO...A FEW SHOWERS HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP...MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST OF NYC. WILL CARRY A 20 POP FOR ISOLATED ACTIVITY.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. WITH
MINIMAL UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...NOT EXPECTING SHRA/TSRA...SO WILL
CARRY A DRY FORECAST. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...AND SFC DEWPOINTS WILL DROP A BIT...
GENERALLY FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S TO THE LOW TO MID 60S. WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS...SOME PATCHY FOG
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND
LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

HIGH PRES STRENGTHENS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. TEMPS DROP A BIT ON
TUESDAY AS COMPARED TO TODAY...BUT WILL STILL TOP OFF IN THE UPPER
80S TO AROUND 90 WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. BETTER
CHANCE FOR SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT AT THE COASTS ON TUESDAY AS SFC
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT DURING THE DAY. THE HEAT INDEX SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW 95 ON TUESDAY IN NYC.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE REPLACED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY
WILL CONTINUE AS AIR QUALITY DECREASES UNDER A STAGNANT DOME OF
HIGH PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE AT LEAST 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. ALTHO NOT IN THE LATEST FCST...CAN NOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED TSTM WED AFTN AND EVE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DAY TIME
THERMAL TROUGH.

DAY TIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S BOTH WED AND THU WITH HEAT
INDEX VALUES APPROACHING 95 DEGS ACROSS NYC AND URBAN NE NJ.

LATE THURSDAY-EARLY FRIDAY...A STRONGER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO PROVIDE SOME RELIEF INITIALLY IN THE FORM OF WIDELY SCT TSTMS
MAINLY THU AFTN - EVE. FCST A POP OF 20 PCT...WHICH MAY NEED TO BE
INCREASED IN LATER FORECASTS.

LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MARITIME POLAR AIR ON EAST WINDS REPLACES
THE MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP REGION WIDE...BUT ESPECIALLY
ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
TERMINALS INTO THIS EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY THROUGH 00Z. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE TERMINALS 06Z TO 11Z...THEN MOVES NORTHEAST AS A WARM
FRONT TUESDAY MORNING.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR FOG IS
POSSIBLE AT KSWF LATE TONIGHT.

THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WIND WILL BE FROM THE WEST TO
SOUTHWEST...AROUND 10 KT. OCCASIONAL GUSTS INTO THE UPPER TEENS ARE
POSSIBLE AT THE NYC TERMINALS.

AFTERWARD THE WIND FORECAST BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN WITH THE TIMING
OF THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT...AND THE SHIFT TO THE NORTH. WIND COULD
EVEN BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT LIKELY TUESDAY BY
MIDDAY.


   ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST. SEA
BREEZE LIKELY REMAINS SOUTH. OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KT THIS
AFTERNOON.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. OCCASIONAL
GUSTS UP TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. OCCASIONAL
GUSTS UP TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.


.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY AFTERNOON-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES
LIKELY.
.THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES PROBABLE.
.FRIDAY...VFR. ENE WINDS G15-20KT.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SW PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS TODAY BETWEEN AN APPROACHING BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT AND SFC HIGH PRES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC. WINDS AND SEAS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY/SCA LEVELS ON ALL
WATERS... BUT SEAS MAY BRIEFLY BUILD TO 5 FT ON THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN OCEAN WATERS THIS AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE...CONDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CONDS THROUGH THU.

LATE THU-THU NIGHT...WIDELY SCT TSTMS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

FRI...THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND
SEAS WILL OCCUR AS WINDS SHIFT FROM THE EAST AT 15-20 KT FOLLOWING
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT AS HIGH PRES MOVES EAST ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THU AFTN-EARLY FRI...WIDELY SCT TSTMS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH LESS THAN 1/4 INCH RAIN.

NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GC/MPS
NEAR TERM...BC
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...GC
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...GC/MPS
HYDROLOGY...GC/MPS




000
FXUS61 KOKX 311635
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1235 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE OTHERWISE STRENGTHENS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST UPDATE TO KEEP BROKEN MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS IN
LONGER THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPS
TODAY A FEW DEGREES. STILL LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND
LOW 90S. WITH THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURES IN AND AROUND THE NYC METRO
AREA.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. WITH
MINIMAL UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...NOT EXPECTING SHRA/TSRA...SO WILL
CARRY A DRY FORECAST. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...AND SFC DEWPOINTS WILL DROP A BIT...
GENERALLY FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S TO THE LOW TO MID 60S. WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS...SOME PATCHY FOG
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND
LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

HIGH PRES STRENGTHENS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. TEMPS DROP A BIT ON
TUESDAY AS COMPARED TO TODAY...BUT WILL STILL TOP OFF IN THE UPPER
80S TO AROUND 90 WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. BETTER
CHANCE FOR SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT AT THE COASTS ON TUESDAY AS SFC
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT DURING THE DAY. THE HEAT INDEX SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW 95 ON TUESDAY IN NYC.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE REPLACED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY
WILL CONTINUE AS AIR QUALITY DECREASES UNDER A STAGNANT DOME OF
HIGH PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE AT LEAST 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. ALTHO NOT IN THE LATEST FCST...CAN NOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED TSTM WED AFTN AND EVE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DAY TIME
THERMAL TROUGH.

DAY TIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S BOTH WED AND THU WITH HEAT
INDEX VALUES APPROACHING 95 DEGS ACROSS NYC AND URBAN NE NJ.

LATE THURSDAY-EARLY FRIDAY...A STRONGER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO PROVIDE SOME RELIEF INITIALLY IN THE FORM OF WIDELY SCT TSTMS
MAINLY THU AFTN - EVE. FCST A POP OF 20 PCT...WHICH MAY NEED TO BE
INCREASED IN LATER FORECASTS.

LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MARITIME POLAR AIR ON EAST WINDS REPLACES
THE MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP REGION WIDE...BUT ESPECIALLY
ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR THE TERMINALS TODAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS FROM THE NORTH AND EAST
LATE TONIGHT.

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KSWF
LATE TONIGHT...WITH PATCHY MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AT OTHER OUTLYING
TERMINALS.

W-WSW WINDS 5 TO 10 KT THIS MORNING INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 THIS
AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT FOR CITY TERMINALS. GUSTS END AFTER
SUNSET WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KT. WIND SPEEDS DECREASE
OVERNIGHT...BUT VEER AROUND TO THE WNW AND THEN N-NNE LATE BEHIND
COLD FRONT.


   ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST. SEA
BREEZE LIKELY STAYS SOUTH AND EAST OF TERMINAL...WITH LOW CHANCE
FOR IT TO MOVE THROUGH AFTER 19Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.
OCCASIONAL WIND GUST TO 20 KT POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEA BREEZE
IS NOT EXPECTED.


.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES PROBABLE
EACH AFTERNOON.
.THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES PROBABLE.
.FRIDAY...VFR. ENE WINDS G15-20KT.

&&

.MARINE...
SW PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS TODAY BETWEEN AN APPROACHING BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT AND SFC HIGH PRES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC. WINDS AND SEAS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY/SCA LEVELS ON ALL
WATERS... BUT SEAS MAY BRIEFLY BUILD TO 5 FT ON THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN OCEAN WATERS THIS AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE...CONDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CONDS THROUGH THU.

LATE THU-THU NIGHT...WIDELY SCT TSTMS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

FRI...THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND
SEAS WILL OCCUR AS WINDS SHIFT FROM THE EAST AT 15-20 KT FOLLOWING
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT AS HIGH PRES MOVES EAST ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THU AFTN-EARLY FRI...WIDELY SCT TSTMS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH LESS THAN 1/4 INCH RAIN.

NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GC/MPS
NEAR TERM...BC
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...GC
AVIATION...DS/MET
MARINE...GC/MPS
HYDROLOGY...GC/MPS




000
FXUS61 KOKX 311635
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1235 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE OTHERWISE STRENGTHENS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST UPDATE TO KEEP BROKEN MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS IN
LONGER THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPS
TODAY A FEW DEGREES. STILL LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND
LOW 90S. WITH THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURES IN AND AROUND THE NYC METRO
AREA.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. WITH
MINIMAL UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...NOT EXPECTING SHRA/TSRA...SO WILL
CARRY A DRY FORECAST. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...AND SFC DEWPOINTS WILL DROP A BIT...
GENERALLY FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S TO THE LOW TO MID 60S. WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS...SOME PATCHY FOG
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND
LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

HIGH PRES STRENGTHENS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. TEMPS DROP A BIT ON
TUESDAY AS COMPARED TO TODAY...BUT WILL STILL TOP OFF IN THE UPPER
80S TO AROUND 90 WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. BETTER
CHANCE FOR SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT AT THE COASTS ON TUESDAY AS SFC
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT DURING THE DAY. THE HEAT INDEX SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW 95 ON TUESDAY IN NYC.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE REPLACED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY
WILL CONTINUE AS AIR QUALITY DECREASES UNDER A STAGNANT DOME OF
HIGH PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE AT LEAST 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. ALTHO NOT IN THE LATEST FCST...CAN NOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED TSTM WED AFTN AND EVE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DAY TIME
THERMAL TROUGH.

DAY TIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S BOTH WED AND THU WITH HEAT
INDEX VALUES APPROACHING 95 DEGS ACROSS NYC AND URBAN NE NJ.

LATE THURSDAY-EARLY FRIDAY...A STRONGER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO PROVIDE SOME RELIEF INITIALLY IN THE FORM OF WIDELY SCT TSTMS
MAINLY THU AFTN - EVE. FCST A POP OF 20 PCT...WHICH MAY NEED TO BE
INCREASED IN LATER FORECASTS.

LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MARITIME POLAR AIR ON EAST WINDS REPLACES
THE MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP REGION WIDE...BUT ESPECIALLY
ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR THE TERMINALS TODAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS FROM THE NORTH AND EAST
LATE TONIGHT.

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KSWF
LATE TONIGHT...WITH PATCHY MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AT OTHER OUTLYING
TERMINALS.

W-WSW WINDS 5 TO 10 KT THIS MORNING INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 THIS
AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT FOR CITY TERMINALS. GUSTS END AFTER
SUNSET WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KT. WIND SPEEDS DECREASE
OVERNIGHT...BUT VEER AROUND TO THE WNW AND THEN N-NNE LATE BEHIND
COLD FRONT.


   ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST. SEA
BREEZE LIKELY STAYS SOUTH AND EAST OF TERMINAL...WITH LOW CHANCE
FOR IT TO MOVE THROUGH AFTER 19Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.
OCCASIONAL WIND GUST TO 20 KT POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEA BREEZE
IS NOT EXPECTED.


.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES PROBABLE
EACH AFTERNOON.
.THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES PROBABLE.
.FRIDAY...VFR. ENE WINDS G15-20KT.

&&

.MARINE...
SW PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS TODAY BETWEEN AN APPROACHING BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT AND SFC HIGH PRES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC. WINDS AND SEAS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY/SCA LEVELS ON ALL
WATERS... BUT SEAS MAY BRIEFLY BUILD TO 5 FT ON THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN OCEAN WATERS THIS AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE...CONDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CONDS THROUGH THU.

LATE THU-THU NIGHT...WIDELY SCT TSTMS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

FRI...THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND
SEAS WILL OCCUR AS WINDS SHIFT FROM THE EAST AT 15-20 KT FOLLOWING
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT AS HIGH PRES MOVES EAST ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THU AFTN-EARLY FRI...WIDELY SCT TSTMS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH LESS THAN 1/4 INCH RAIN.

NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GC/MPS
NEAR TERM...BC
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...GC
AVIATION...DS/MET
MARINE...GC/MPS
HYDROLOGY...GC/MPS




000
FXUS61 KOKX 311635
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1235 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE OTHERWISE STRENGTHENS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST UPDATE TO KEEP BROKEN MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS IN
LONGER THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPS
TODAY A FEW DEGREES. STILL LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND
LOW 90S. WITH THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURES IN AND AROUND THE NYC METRO
AREA.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. WITH
MINIMAL UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...NOT EXPECTING SHRA/TSRA...SO WILL
CARRY A DRY FORECAST. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...AND SFC DEWPOINTS WILL DROP A BIT...
GENERALLY FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S TO THE LOW TO MID 60S. WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS...SOME PATCHY FOG
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND
LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

HIGH PRES STRENGTHENS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. TEMPS DROP A BIT ON
TUESDAY AS COMPARED TO TODAY...BUT WILL STILL TOP OFF IN THE UPPER
80S TO AROUND 90 WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. BETTER
CHANCE FOR SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT AT THE COASTS ON TUESDAY AS SFC
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT DURING THE DAY. THE HEAT INDEX SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW 95 ON TUESDAY IN NYC.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE REPLACED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY
WILL CONTINUE AS AIR QUALITY DECREASES UNDER A STAGNANT DOME OF
HIGH PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE AT LEAST 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. ALTHO NOT IN THE LATEST FCST...CAN NOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED TSTM WED AFTN AND EVE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DAY TIME
THERMAL TROUGH.

DAY TIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S BOTH WED AND THU WITH HEAT
INDEX VALUES APPROACHING 95 DEGS ACROSS NYC AND URBAN NE NJ.

LATE THURSDAY-EARLY FRIDAY...A STRONGER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO PROVIDE SOME RELIEF INITIALLY IN THE FORM OF WIDELY SCT TSTMS
MAINLY THU AFTN - EVE. FCST A POP OF 20 PCT...WHICH MAY NEED TO BE
INCREASED IN LATER FORECASTS.

LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MARITIME POLAR AIR ON EAST WINDS REPLACES
THE MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP REGION WIDE...BUT ESPECIALLY
ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR THE TERMINALS TODAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS FROM THE NORTH AND EAST
LATE TONIGHT.

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KSWF
LATE TONIGHT...WITH PATCHY MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AT OTHER OUTLYING
TERMINALS.

W-WSW WINDS 5 TO 10 KT THIS MORNING INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 THIS
AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT FOR CITY TERMINALS. GUSTS END AFTER
SUNSET WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KT. WIND SPEEDS DECREASE
OVERNIGHT...BUT VEER AROUND TO THE WNW AND THEN N-NNE LATE BEHIND
COLD FRONT.


   ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST. SEA
BREEZE LIKELY STAYS SOUTH AND EAST OF TERMINAL...WITH LOW CHANCE
FOR IT TO MOVE THROUGH AFTER 19Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.
OCCASIONAL WIND GUST TO 20 KT POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEA BREEZE
IS NOT EXPECTED.


.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES PROBABLE
EACH AFTERNOON.
.THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES PROBABLE.
.FRIDAY...VFR. ENE WINDS G15-20KT.

&&

.MARINE...
SW PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS TODAY BETWEEN AN APPROACHING BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT AND SFC HIGH PRES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC. WINDS AND SEAS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY/SCA LEVELS ON ALL
WATERS... BUT SEAS MAY BRIEFLY BUILD TO 5 FT ON THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN OCEAN WATERS THIS AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE...CONDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CONDS THROUGH THU.

LATE THU-THU NIGHT...WIDELY SCT TSTMS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

FRI...THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND
SEAS WILL OCCUR AS WINDS SHIFT FROM THE EAST AT 15-20 KT FOLLOWING
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT AS HIGH PRES MOVES EAST ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THU AFTN-EARLY FRI...WIDELY SCT TSTMS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH LESS THAN 1/4 INCH RAIN.

NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GC/MPS
NEAR TERM...BC
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...GC
AVIATION...DS/MET
MARINE...GC/MPS
HYDROLOGY...GC/MPS




000
FXUS61 KOKX 311635
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1235 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE OTHERWISE STRENGTHENS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST UPDATE TO KEEP BROKEN MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS IN
LONGER THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPS
TODAY A FEW DEGREES. STILL LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND
LOW 90S. WITH THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURES IN AND AROUND THE NYC METRO
AREA.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. WITH
MINIMAL UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...NOT EXPECTING SHRA/TSRA...SO WILL
CARRY A DRY FORECAST. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...AND SFC DEWPOINTS WILL DROP A BIT...
GENERALLY FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S TO THE LOW TO MID 60S. WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS...SOME PATCHY FOG
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND
LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

HIGH PRES STRENGTHENS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. TEMPS DROP A BIT ON
TUESDAY AS COMPARED TO TODAY...BUT WILL STILL TOP OFF IN THE UPPER
80S TO AROUND 90 WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. BETTER
CHANCE FOR SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT AT THE COASTS ON TUESDAY AS SFC
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT DURING THE DAY. THE HEAT INDEX SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW 95 ON TUESDAY IN NYC.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE REPLACED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY
WILL CONTINUE AS AIR QUALITY DECREASES UNDER A STAGNANT DOME OF
HIGH PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE AT LEAST 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. ALTHO NOT IN THE LATEST FCST...CAN NOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED TSTM WED AFTN AND EVE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DAY TIME
THERMAL TROUGH.

DAY TIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S BOTH WED AND THU WITH HEAT
INDEX VALUES APPROACHING 95 DEGS ACROSS NYC AND URBAN NE NJ.

LATE THURSDAY-EARLY FRIDAY...A STRONGER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO PROVIDE SOME RELIEF INITIALLY IN THE FORM OF WIDELY SCT TSTMS
MAINLY THU AFTN - EVE. FCST A POP OF 20 PCT...WHICH MAY NEED TO BE
INCREASED IN LATER FORECASTS.

LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MARITIME POLAR AIR ON EAST WINDS REPLACES
THE MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP REGION WIDE...BUT ESPECIALLY
ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR THE TERMINALS TODAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS FROM THE NORTH AND EAST
LATE TONIGHT.

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KSWF
LATE TONIGHT...WITH PATCHY MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AT OTHER OUTLYING
TERMINALS.

W-WSW WINDS 5 TO 10 KT THIS MORNING INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 THIS
AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT FOR CITY TERMINALS. GUSTS END AFTER
SUNSET WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KT. WIND SPEEDS DECREASE
OVERNIGHT...BUT VEER AROUND TO THE WNW AND THEN N-NNE LATE BEHIND
COLD FRONT.


   ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST. SEA
BREEZE LIKELY STAYS SOUTH AND EAST OF TERMINAL...WITH LOW CHANCE
FOR IT TO MOVE THROUGH AFTER 19Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.
OCCASIONAL WIND GUST TO 20 KT POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEA BREEZE
IS NOT EXPECTED.


.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES PROBABLE
EACH AFTERNOON.
.THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES PROBABLE.
.FRIDAY...VFR. ENE WINDS G15-20KT.

&&

.MARINE...
SW PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS TODAY BETWEEN AN APPROACHING BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT AND SFC HIGH PRES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC. WINDS AND SEAS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY/SCA LEVELS ON ALL
WATERS... BUT SEAS MAY BRIEFLY BUILD TO 5 FT ON THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN OCEAN WATERS THIS AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE...CONDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CONDS THROUGH THU.

LATE THU-THU NIGHT...WIDELY SCT TSTMS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

FRI...THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND
SEAS WILL OCCUR AS WINDS SHIFT FROM THE EAST AT 15-20 KT FOLLOWING
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT AS HIGH PRES MOVES EAST ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THU AFTN-EARLY FRI...WIDELY SCT TSTMS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH LESS THAN 1/4 INCH RAIN.

NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GC/MPS
NEAR TERM...BC
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...GC
AVIATION...DS/MET
MARINE...GC/MPS
HYDROLOGY...GC/MPS




000
FXUS61 KOKX 311635
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1235 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE OTHERWISE STRENGTHENS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST UPDATE TO KEEP BROKEN MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS IN
LONGER THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPS
TODAY A FEW DEGREES. STILL LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND
LOW 90S. WITH THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURES IN AND AROUND THE NYC METRO
AREA.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. WITH
MINIMAL UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...NOT EXPECTING SHRA/TSRA...SO WILL
CARRY A DRY FORECAST. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...AND SFC DEWPOINTS WILL DROP A BIT...
GENERALLY FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S TO THE LOW TO MID 60S. WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS...SOME PATCHY FOG
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND
LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

HIGH PRES STRENGTHENS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. TEMPS DROP A BIT ON
TUESDAY AS COMPARED TO TODAY...BUT WILL STILL TOP OFF IN THE UPPER
80S TO AROUND 90 WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. BETTER
CHANCE FOR SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT AT THE COASTS ON TUESDAY AS SFC
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT DURING THE DAY. THE HEAT INDEX SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW 95 ON TUESDAY IN NYC.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE REPLACED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY
WILL CONTINUE AS AIR QUALITY DECREASES UNDER A STAGNANT DOME OF
HIGH PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE AT LEAST 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. ALTHO NOT IN THE LATEST FCST...CAN NOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED TSTM WED AFTN AND EVE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DAY TIME
THERMAL TROUGH.

DAY TIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S BOTH WED AND THU WITH HEAT
INDEX VALUES APPROACHING 95 DEGS ACROSS NYC AND URBAN NE NJ.

LATE THURSDAY-EARLY FRIDAY...A STRONGER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO PROVIDE SOME RELIEF INITIALLY IN THE FORM OF WIDELY SCT TSTMS
MAINLY THU AFTN - EVE. FCST A POP OF 20 PCT...WHICH MAY NEED TO BE
INCREASED IN LATER FORECASTS.

LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MARITIME POLAR AIR ON EAST WINDS REPLACES
THE MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP REGION WIDE...BUT ESPECIALLY
ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR THE TERMINALS TODAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS FROM THE NORTH AND EAST
LATE TONIGHT.

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KSWF
LATE TONIGHT...WITH PATCHY MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AT OTHER OUTLYING
TERMINALS.

W-WSW WINDS 5 TO 10 KT THIS MORNING INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 THIS
AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT FOR CITY TERMINALS. GUSTS END AFTER
SUNSET WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KT. WIND SPEEDS DECREASE
OVERNIGHT...BUT VEER AROUND TO THE WNW AND THEN N-NNE LATE BEHIND
COLD FRONT.


   ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST. SEA
BREEZE LIKELY STAYS SOUTH AND EAST OF TERMINAL...WITH LOW CHANCE
FOR IT TO MOVE THROUGH AFTER 19Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.
OCCASIONAL WIND GUST TO 20 KT POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEA BREEZE
IS NOT EXPECTED.


.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES PROBABLE
EACH AFTERNOON.
.THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES PROBABLE.
.FRIDAY...VFR. ENE WINDS G15-20KT.

&&

.MARINE...
SW PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS TODAY BETWEEN AN APPROACHING BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT AND SFC HIGH PRES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC. WINDS AND SEAS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY/SCA LEVELS ON ALL
WATERS... BUT SEAS MAY BRIEFLY BUILD TO 5 FT ON THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN OCEAN WATERS THIS AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE...CONDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CONDS THROUGH THU.

LATE THU-THU NIGHT...WIDELY SCT TSTMS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

FRI...THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND
SEAS WILL OCCUR AS WINDS SHIFT FROM THE EAST AT 15-20 KT FOLLOWING
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT AS HIGH PRES MOVES EAST ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THU AFTN-EARLY FRI...WIDELY SCT TSTMS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH LESS THAN 1/4 INCH RAIN.

NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GC/MPS
NEAR TERM...BC
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...GC
AVIATION...DS/MET
MARINE...GC/MPS
HYDROLOGY...GC/MPS




000
FXUS61 KOKX 311635
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1235 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE OTHERWISE STRENGTHENS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST UPDATE TO KEEP BROKEN MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS IN
LONGER THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPS
TODAY A FEW DEGREES. STILL LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND
LOW 90S. WITH THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURES IN AND AROUND THE NYC METRO
AREA.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. WITH
MINIMAL UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...NOT EXPECTING SHRA/TSRA...SO WILL
CARRY A DRY FORECAST. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...AND SFC DEWPOINTS WILL DROP A BIT...
GENERALLY FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S TO THE LOW TO MID 60S. WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS...SOME PATCHY FOG
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND
LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

HIGH PRES STRENGTHENS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. TEMPS DROP A BIT ON
TUESDAY AS COMPARED TO TODAY...BUT WILL STILL TOP OFF IN THE UPPER
80S TO AROUND 90 WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. BETTER
CHANCE FOR SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT AT THE COASTS ON TUESDAY AS SFC
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT DURING THE DAY. THE HEAT INDEX SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW 95 ON TUESDAY IN NYC.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE REPLACED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY
WILL CONTINUE AS AIR QUALITY DECREASES UNDER A STAGNANT DOME OF
HIGH PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE AT LEAST 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. ALTHO NOT IN THE LATEST FCST...CAN NOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED TSTM WED AFTN AND EVE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DAY TIME
THERMAL TROUGH.

DAY TIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S BOTH WED AND THU WITH HEAT
INDEX VALUES APPROACHING 95 DEGS ACROSS NYC AND URBAN NE NJ.

LATE THURSDAY-EARLY FRIDAY...A STRONGER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO PROVIDE SOME RELIEF INITIALLY IN THE FORM OF WIDELY SCT TSTMS
MAINLY THU AFTN - EVE. FCST A POP OF 20 PCT...WHICH MAY NEED TO BE
INCREASED IN LATER FORECASTS.

LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MARITIME POLAR AIR ON EAST WINDS REPLACES
THE MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP REGION WIDE...BUT ESPECIALLY
ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR THE TERMINALS TODAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS FROM THE NORTH AND EAST
LATE TONIGHT.

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KSWF
LATE TONIGHT...WITH PATCHY MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AT OTHER OUTLYING
TERMINALS.

W-WSW WINDS 5 TO 10 KT THIS MORNING INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 THIS
AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT FOR CITY TERMINALS. GUSTS END AFTER
SUNSET WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KT. WIND SPEEDS DECREASE
OVERNIGHT...BUT VEER AROUND TO THE WNW AND THEN N-NNE LATE BEHIND
COLD FRONT.


   ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST. SEA
BREEZE LIKELY STAYS SOUTH AND EAST OF TERMINAL...WITH LOW CHANCE
FOR IT TO MOVE THROUGH AFTER 19Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.
OCCASIONAL WIND GUST TO 20 KT POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEA BREEZE
IS NOT EXPECTED.


.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES PROBABLE
EACH AFTERNOON.
.THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES PROBABLE.
.FRIDAY...VFR. ENE WINDS G15-20KT.

&&

.MARINE...
SW PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS TODAY BETWEEN AN APPROACHING BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT AND SFC HIGH PRES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC. WINDS AND SEAS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY/SCA LEVELS ON ALL
WATERS... BUT SEAS MAY BRIEFLY BUILD TO 5 FT ON THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN OCEAN WATERS THIS AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE...CONDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CONDS THROUGH THU.

LATE THU-THU NIGHT...WIDELY SCT TSTMS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

FRI...THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND
SEAS WILL OCCUR AS WINDS SHIFT FROM THE EAST AT 15-20 KT FOLLOWING
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT AS HIGH PRES MOVES EAST ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THU AFTN-EARLY FRI...WIDELY SCT TSTMS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH LESS THAN 1/4 INCH RAIN.

NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GC/MPS
NEAR TERM...BC
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...GC
AVIATION...DS/MET
MARINE...GC/MPS
HYDROLOGY...GC/MPS



000
FXUS61 KOKX 311424
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1024 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE OTHERWISE STRENGTHENS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BROKEN MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING.

BACK DOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY. AS IT
APPROACHES...A SOUTHWEST GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THAT AND HIGH
PRES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. THIS INCREASED SW FLOW WILL RESULT IN
A WARM AND HUMID DAY AS SFC DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE MID AND UPPER
60S.

MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 FOR
MOST OF THE REGION...AND THE WARMEST TEMPS WILL OCCUR ACROSS NYC
AND URBANIZED PORTIONS OF NE NJ...WHERE HIGHS WILL TOP OFF IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S. FOR NYC...THE HEAT INDEX SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 95
TODAY.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. WITH
MINIMAL UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...NOT EXPECTING SHRA/TSRA...SO WILL
CARRY A DRY FORECAST. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...AND SFC DEWPOINTS WILL DROP A BIT...
GENERALLY FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S TO THE LOW TO MID 60S. WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS...SOME PATCHY FOG
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND
LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

HIGH PRES STRENGTHENS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. TEMPS DROP A BIT ON
TUESDAY AS COMPARED TO TODAY...BUT WILL STILL TOP OFF IN THE UPPER
80S TO AROUND 90 WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. BETTER
CHANCE FOR SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT AT THE COASTS ON TUESDAY AS SFC
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT DURING THE DAY. THE HEAT INDEX SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW 95 ON TUESDAY IN NYC.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE REPLACED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY
WILL CONTINUE AS AIR QUALITY DECREASES UNDER A STAGNANT DOME OF
HIGH PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE AT LEAST 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. ALTHO NOT IN THE LATEST FCST...CAN NOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED TSTM WED AFTN AND EVE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DAY TIME
THERMAL TROUGH.

DAY TIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S BOTH WED AND THU WITH HEAT
INDEX VALUES APPROACHING 95 DEGS ACROSS NYC AND URBAN NE NJ.

LATE THURSDAY-EARLY FRIDAY...A STRONGER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO PROVIDE SOME RELIEF INITIALLY IN THE FORM OF WIDELY SCT TSTMS
MAINLY THU AFTN - EVE. FCST A POP OF 20 PCT...WHICH MAY NEED TO BE
INCREASED IN LATER FORECASTS.

LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MARITIME POLAR AIR ON EAST WINDS REPLACES
THE MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP REGION WIDE...BUT ESPECIALLY
ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR THE TERMINALS TODAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS FROM THE NORTH AND EAST
LATE TONIGHT.

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KSWF
LATE TONIGHT...WITH PATCHY MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AT OTHER OUTLYING
TERMINALS.

W-WSW WINDS 5 TO 10 KT THIS MORNING INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 THIS
AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT FOR CITY TERMINALS. GUSTS END AFTER
SUNSET WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KT. WIND SPEEDS DECREASE
OVERNIGHT...BUT VEER AROUND TO THE WNW AND THEN N-NNE LATE BEHIND
COLD FRONT.


   ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST. SEA
BREEZE LIKELY STAYS SOUTH AND EAST OF TERMINAL...WITH LOW CHANCE
FOR IT TO MOVE THROUGH AFTER 19Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.
OCCASIONAL WIND GUST TO 20 KT POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEA BREEZE
IS NOT EXPECTED.


.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES PROBABLE
EACH AFTERNOON.
.THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES PROBABLE.
.FRIDAY...VFR. ENE WINDS G15-20KT.

&&

.MARINE...
SW PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS TODAY BETWEEN AN APPROACHING BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT AND SFC HIGH PRES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC. WINDS AND SEAS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY/SCA LEVELS ON ALL
WATERS... BUT SEAS MAY BRIEFLY BUILD TO 5 FT ON THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN OCEAN WATERS THIS AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE...CONDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CONDS THROUGH THU.

LATE THU-THU NIGHT...WIDELY SCT TSTMS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

FRI...THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND
SEAS WILL OCCUR AS WINDS SHIFT FROM THE EAST AT 15-20 KT FOLLOWING
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT AS HIGH PRES MOVES EAST ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THU AFTN-EARLY FRI...WIDELY SCT TSTMS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH LESS THAN 1/4 INCH RAIN.

NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GC/MPS
NEAR TERM...BC/GC/MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...GC
AVIATION...DS/MET
MARINE...GC/MPS
HYDROLOGY...GC/MPS




000
FXUS61 KOKX 311424
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1024 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE OTHERWISE STRENGTHENS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BROKEN MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING.

BACK DOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY. AS IT
APPROACHES...A SOUTHWEST GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THAT AND HIGH
PRES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. THIS INCREASED SW FLOW WILL RESULT IN
A WARM AND HUMID DAY AS SFC DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE MID AND UPPER
60S.

MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 FOR
MOST OF THE REGION...AND THE WARMEST TEMPS WILL OCCUR ACROSS NYC
AND URBANIZED PORTIONS OF NE NJ...WHERE HIGHS WILL TOP OFF IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S. FOR NYC...THE HEAT INDEX SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 95
TODAY.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. WITH
MINIMAL UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...NOT EXPECTING SHRA/TSRA...SO WILL
CARRY A DRY FORECAST. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...AND SFC DEWPOINTS WILL DROP A BIT...
GENERALLY FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S TO THE LOW TO MID 60S. WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS...SOME PATCHY FOG
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND
LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

HIGH PRES STRENGTHENS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. TEMPS DROP A BIT ON
TUESDAY AS COMPARED TO TODAY...BUT WILL STILL TOP OFF IN THE UPPER
80S TO AROUND 90 WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. BETTER
CHANCE FOR SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT AT THE COASTS ON TUESDAY AS SFC
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT DURING THE DAY. THE HEAT INDEX SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW 95 ON TUESDAY IN NYC.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE REPLACED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY
WILL CONTINUE AS AIR QUALITY DECREASES UNDER A STAGNANT DOME OF
HIGH PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE AT LEAST 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. ALTHO NOT IN THE LATEST FCST...CAN NOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED TSTM WED AFTN AND EVE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DAY TIME
THERMAL TROUGH.

DAY TIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S BOTH WED AND THU WITH HEAT
INDEX VALUES APPROACHING 95 DEGS ACROSS NYC AND URBAN NE NJ.

LATE THURSDAY-EARLY FRIDAY...A STRONGER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO PROVIDE SOME RELIEF INITIALLY IN THE FORM OF WIDELY SCT TSTMS
MAINLY THU AFTN - EVE. FCST A POP OF 20 PCT...WHICH MAY NEED TO BE
INCREASED IN LATER FORECASTS.

LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MARITIME POLAR AIR ON EAST WINDS REPLACES
THE MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP REGION WIDE...BUT ESPECIALLY
ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR THE TERMINALS TODAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS FROM THE NORTH AND EAST
LATE TONIGHT.

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KSWF
LATE TONIGHT...WITH PATCHY MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AT OTHER OUTLYING
TERMINALS.

W-WSW WINDS 5 TO 10 KT THIS MORNING INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 THIS
AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT FOR CITY TERMINALS. GUSTS END AFTER
SUNSET WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KT. WIND SPEEDS DECREASE
OVERNIGHT...BUT VEER AROUND TO THE WNW AND THEN N-NNE LATE BEHIND
COLD FRONT.


   ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST. SEA
BREEZE LIKELY STAYS SOUTH AND EAST OF TERMINAL...WITH LOW CHANCE
FOR IT TO MOVE THROUGH AFTER 19Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.
OCCASIONAL WIND GUST TO 20 KT POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEA BREEZE
IS NOT EXPECTED.


.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES PROBABLE
EACH AFTERNOON.
.THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES PROBABLE.
.FRIDAY...VFR. ENE WINDS G15-20KT.

&&

.MARINE...
SW PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS TODAY BETWEEN AN APPROACHING BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT AND SFC HIGH PRES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC. WINDS AND SEAS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY/SCA LEVELS ON ALL
WATERS... BUT SEAS MAY BRIEFLY BUILD TO 5 FT ON THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN OCEAN WATERS THIS AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE...CONDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CONDS THROUGH THU.

LATE THU-THU NIGHT...WIDELY SCT TSTMS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

FRI...THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND
SEAS WILL OCCUR AS WINDS SHIFT FROM THE EAST AT 15-20 KT FOLLOWING
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT AS HIGH PRES MOVES EAST ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THU AFTN-EARLY FRI...WIDELY SCT TSTMS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH LESS THAN 1/4 INCH RAIN.

NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GC/MPS
NEAR TERM...BC/GC/MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...GC
AVIATION...DS/MET
MARINE...GC/MPS
HYDROLOGY...GC/MPS



000
FXUS61 KALY 311404
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1004 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THIS WEEK WILL BE HOT WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT.
HIGHS MAINLY IN 80S ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH SOME 90S
ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE MIDDLE AND
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH JUST AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1004 AM EDT...THE FOG HAS DISSIPATED QUICKLY BETWEEN 830 AM
AND 10 AM ACROSS THE VALLEY AREAS OF ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND
BASED ON THE VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURE AND CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.
HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS SOUTH OF THE
CAPITAL REGION...IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHING FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...AND ALSO SOUTH OF A
WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETTLING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST AND SE CANADA. ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE WAS TRANSLATING
EAST ACROSS E/SE QUEBEC.

WE EXPECT THE HIGH CLOUDS TO PERSIST ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS
THROUGH INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE THINNING FROM NW TO SE
DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. SOME SCT-BKN CUMULUS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE SRN DACKS...THE ERN CATSKILLS...AND ALONG THE
WRN SPINE OF THE SRN GREENS THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING BTWN THE MTNS/VALLEYS. EVENTUALLY...AS DRIER AIR SEEPS
SOUTHWARD...WE EXPECT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF CLOUDS TO DECREASE
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

SOME MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOP FROM THESE
CLOUDS...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STRONG CAPPING AND MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPING. SO...WILL KEEP OUT MENTION OF ANY SHOWERS
AT THIS TIME...BUT RADAR TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED...IN CASE
ANY OF THE BUILDING CU CAN GROW TALL ENOUGH AND PRODUCE ISOLATED
SHOWERS.

IT WILL BECOME BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON...AS 850-700 MB WINDS
STRENGTHEN BETWEEN AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND
A LOW LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR SOUTHEAST. AS MIXING DEEPENS BY THIS
AFTERNOON...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE
INTO THE 10-20 MPH RANGE...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING UP TO
25 MPH AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN THE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN MUCH OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY...PERHAPS NEARING 90 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
ASSUMING THE HIGH CLOUDS DEPART SOON ENOUGH. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT
MAINLY LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS...AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GENERALLY WARM WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THERE
COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING. MAX
TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID/UPPER 80S IN VALLEYS ON TUE...WITH
LOWER 80S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS...THEN SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER ON WED...REACHING AROUND 90 FOR VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 80S
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER/MID
60S...GIVING HEAT INDICES OF 85-90 TUE...AND 90-95 ON WED.
OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AS WELL AS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT
AND WESTERN MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. MUCH OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE VERY WARM TO HOT
WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION. ANY CONVECTION
THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY ISOLATED. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
PORTION OF THE FA THURSDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND TRAILING
COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA.

HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S...EXCEPT FOR
SOME UPPER 70S ACROSS TERRAIN ABOVE 2000 FEET. LOWS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITATION BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOG HAS BEEN A LITTLE MORE PERSISTENT OVER PARTS OF ERN NY AND
WRN NEW ENGLAND. LIFR/IFR FOG WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVER KPSF FOR A
COUPLE MORE HOURS. A TEMPO GROUP WAS ADDED FROM 12Z-14Z THERE.
SOME PATCHY MVFR MIST WILL LINGER UNTIL 13Z AT KGFL/KALB.

ONCE FOG BURNS OFF EARLY THIS MORNING...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE IN PLACE FOR ALL TAF SITES WITH SCT CIRRUS CLOUDS AROUND.
SOME SCT CU MAY DEVELOP BY AFTN...MAINLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.
SKIES WILL BECOME SKC THIS EVENING WITH FOG DEVELOPING AT
KGFL/KPSF AROUND 03Z AND BCMG IFR/LIFR BY 08Z. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME W AT 8-15 KTS TODAY AND THEN BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...

A WEAK TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL PRODUCE SOME
GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST. SPEEDS WILL
GENERALLY AVERAGE 10-20 MPH...BUT SOME GUSTS OF UP TO 25 MPH COULD
OCCUR...ESP IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL
REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET...BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY.

THE RH WILL FALL INTO THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN RECOVER TO 90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH WILL
FALL TO 40-5O PERCENT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THU AND
FRI...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOONS.

WIDESPREAD DEW FORMATION IS LIKELY TONIGHT...AND AGAIN TUE NT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED AUGUST 27
THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST 29, 30
AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY.
DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL/WASULA
NEAR TERM...KL/WASULA
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11/WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL
CLIMATE...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 311404
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1004 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THIS WEEK WILL BE HOT WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT.
HIGHS MAINLY IN 80S ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH SOME 90S
ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE MIDDLE AND
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH JUST AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1004 AM EDT...THE FOG HAS DISSIPATED QUICKLY BETWEEN 830 AM
AND 10 AM ACROSS THE VALLEY AREAS OF ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND
BASED ON THE VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURE AND CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.
HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS SOUTH OF THE
CAPITAL REGION...IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHING FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...AND ALSO SOUTH OF A
WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETTLING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST AND SE CANADA. ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE WAS TRANSLATING
EAST ACROSS E/SE QUEBEC.

WE EXPECT THE HIGH CLOUDS TO PERSIST ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS
THROUGH INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE THINNING FROM NW TO SE
DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. SOME SCT-BKN CUMULUS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE SRN DACKS...THE ERN CATSKILLS...AND ALONG THE
WRN SPINE OF THE SRN GREENS THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING BTWN THE MTNS/VALLEYS. EVENTUALLY...AS DRIER AIR SEEPS
SOUTHWARD...WE EXPECT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF CLOUDS TO DECREASE
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

SOME MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOP FROM THESE
CLOUDS...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STRONG CAPPING AND MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPING. SO...WILL KEEP OUT MENTION OF ANY SHOWERS
AT THIS TIME...BUT RADAR TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED...IN CASE
ANY OF THE BUILDING CU CAN GROW TALL ENOUGH AND PRODUCE ISOLATED
SHOWERS.

IT WILL BECOME BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON...AS 850-700 MB WINDS
STRENGTHEN BETWEEN AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND
A LOW LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR SOUTHEAST. AS MIXING DEEPENS BY THIS
AFTERNOON...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE
INTO THE 10-20 MPH RANGE...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING UP TO
25 MPH AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN THE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN MUCH OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY...PERHAPS NEARING 90 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
ASSUMING THE HIGH CLOUDS DEPART SOON ENOUGH. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT
MAINLY LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS...AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GENERALLY WARM WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THERE
COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING. MAX
TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID/UPPER 80S IN VALLEYS ON TUE...WITH
LOWER 80S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS...THEN SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER ON WED...REACHING AROUND 90 FOR VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 80S
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER/MID
60S...GIVING HEAT INDICES OF 85-90 TUE...AND 90-95 ON WED.
OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AS WELL AS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT
AND WESTERN MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. MUCH OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE VERY WARM TO HOT
WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION. ANY CONVECTION
THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY ISOLATED. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
PORTION OF THE FA THURSDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND TRAILING
COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA.

HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S...EXCEPT FOR
SOME UPPER 70S ACROSS TERRAIN ABOVE 2000 FEET. LOWS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITATION BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOG HAS BEEN A LITTLE MORE PERSISTENT OVER PARTS OF ERN NY AND
WRN NEW ENGLAND. LIFR/IFR FOG WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVER KPSF FOR A
COUPLE MORE HOURS. A TEMPO GROUP WAS ADDED FROM 12Z-14Z THERE.
SOME PATCHY MVFR MIST WILL LINGER UNTIL 13Z AT KGFL/KALB.

ONCE FOG BURNS OFF EARLY THIS MORNING...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE IN PLACE FOR ALL TAF SITES WITH SCT CIRRUS CLOUDS AROUND.
SOME SCT CU MAY DEVELOP BY AFTN...MAINLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.
SKIES WILL BECOME SKC THIS EVENING WITH FOG DEVELOPING AT
KGFL/KPSF AROUND 03Z AND BCMG IFR/LIFR BY 08Z. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME W AT 8-15 KTS TODAY AND THEN BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...

A WEAK TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL PRODUCE SOME
GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST. SPEEDS WILL
GENERALLY AVERAGE 10-20 MPH...BUT SOME GUSTS OF UP TO 25 MPH COULD
OCCUR...ESP IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL
REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET...BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY.

THE RH WILL FALL INTO THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN RECOVER TO 90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH WILL
FALL TO 40-5O PERCENT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THU AND
FRI...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOONS.

WIDESPREAD DEW FORMATION IS LIKELY TONIGHT...AND AGAIN TUE NT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED AUGUST 27
THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST 29, 30
AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY.
DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL/WASULA
NEAR TERM...KL/WASULA
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11/WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL
CLIMATE...IAA



000
FXUS61 KALY 311404
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1004 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THIS WEEK WILL BE HOT WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT.
HIGHS MAINLY IN 80S ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH SOME 90S
ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE MIDDLE AND
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH JUST AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1004 AM EDT...THE FOG HAS DISSIPATED QUICKLY BETWEEN 830 AM
AND 10 AM ACROSS THE VALLEY AREAS OF ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND
BASED ON THE VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURE AND CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.
HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS SOUTH OF THE
CAPITAL REGION...IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHING FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...AND ALSO SOUTH OF A
WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETTLING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST AND SE CANADA. ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE WAS TRANSLATING
EAST ACROSS E/SE QUEBEC.

WE EXPECT THE HIGH CLOUDS TO PERSIST ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS
THROUGH INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE THINNING FROM NW TO SE
DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. SOME SCT-BKN CUMULUS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE SRN DACKS...THE ERN CATSKILLS...AND ALONG THE
WRN SPINE OF THE SRN GREENS THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING BTWN THE MTNS/VALLEYS. EVENTUALLY...AS DRIER AIR SEEPS
SOUTHWARD...WE EXPECT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF CLOUDS TO DECREASE
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

SOME MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOP FROM THESE
CLOUDS...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STRONG CAPPING AND MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPING. SO...WILL KEEP OUT MENTION OF ANY SHOWERS
AT THIS TIME...BUT RADAR TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED...IN CASE
ANY OF THE BUILDING CU CAN GROW TALL ENOUGH AND PRODUCE ISOLATED
SHOWERS.

IT WILL BECOME BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON...AS 850-700 MB WINDS
STRENGTHEN BETWEEN AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND
A LOW LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR SOUTHEAST. AS MIXING DEEPENS BY THIS
AFTERNOON...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE
INTO THE 10-20 MPH RANGE...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING UP TO
25 MPH AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN THE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN MUCH OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY...PERHAPS NEARING 90 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
ASSUMING THE HIGH CLOUDS DEPART SOON ENOUGH. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT
MAINLY LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS...AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GENERALLY WARM WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THERE
COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING. MAX
TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID/UPPER 80S IN VALLEYS ON TUE...WITH
LOWER 80S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS...THEN SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER ON WED...REACHING AROUND 90 FOR VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 80S
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER/MID
60S...GIVING HEAT INDICES OF 85-90 TUE...AND 90-95 ON WED.
OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AS WELL AS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT
AND WESTERN MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. MUCH OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE VERY WARM TO HOT
WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION. ANY CONVECTION
THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY ISOLATED. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
PORTION OF THE FA THURSDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND TRAILING
COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA.

HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S...EXCEPT FOR
SOME UPPER 70S ACROSS TERRAIN ABOVE 2000 FEET. LOWS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITATION BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOG HAS BEEN A LITTLE MORE PERSISTENT OVER PARTS OF ERN NY AND
WRN NEW ENGLAND. LIFR/IFR FOG WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVER KPSF FOR A
COUPLE MORE HOURS. A TEMPO GROUP WAS ADDED FROM 12Z-14Z THERE.
SOME PATCHY MVFR MIST WILL LINGER UNTIL 13Z AT KGFL/KALB.

ONCE FOG BURNS OFF EARLY THIS MORNING...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE IN PLACE FOR ALL TAF SITES WITH SCT CIRRUS CLOUDS AROUND.
SOME SCT CU MAY DEVELOP BY AFTN...MAINLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.
SKIES WILL BECOME SKC THIS EVENING WITH FOG DEVELOPING AT
KGFL/KPSF AROUND 03Z AND BCMG IFR/LIFR BY 08Z. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME W AT 8-15 KTS TODAY AND THEN BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...

A WEAK TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL PRODUCE SOME
GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST. SPEEDS WILL
GENERALLY AVERAGE 10-20 MPH...BUT SOME GUSTS OF UP TO 25 MPH COULD
OCCUR...ESP IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL
REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET...BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY.

THE RH WILL FALL INTO THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN RECOVER TO 90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH WILL
FALL TO 40-5O PERCENT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THU AND
FRI...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOONS.

WIDESPREAD DEW FORMATION IS LIKELY TONIGHT...AND AGAIN TUE NT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED AUGUST 27
THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST 29, 30
AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY.
DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL/WASULA
NEAR TERM...KL/WASULA
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11/WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL
CLIMATE...IAA




000
FXUS61 KBOX 311352
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
952 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HOT AND HUMID TODAY...THEN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BRING
COOLER WEATHER TUESDAY MAINLY JUST TO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.
UNSEASONABLY HOT WEATHER RETURNS TO MOST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING SLIGHTLY
COOLER WEATHER FRIDAY INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER CONTINUING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

10 AM UPDATE...

ASIDE FROM SOME SCATTERED-BROKEN MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD DECKS
ANTICIPATE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY ALONG WITH HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS.
HIGHS AROUND THE UPPER-80S TO LOW-90S AS DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S
PREVAIL. PERHAPS SOME RELIEF WITH BREEZY W-WINDS PER FASTER
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT MIXED DOWN TO THE SURFACE BY THE DEEPENING
WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY-LAYER.

AS ALLUDED TO BY THE PRIOR FORECASTER...A MID-LEVEL VORTEX WILL
PUSH S INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE AFOREMENTIONED CYCLONIC FLOW
TOWARDS EVENING. DRIER AIR AHEAD SHOULD ERODE ANY REMNANT CLOUDS
WHEREAS REARWARD A COOLER AIRMASS PREVAILS. FEEL H85 TEMPERATURES
WILL HOLD AROUND +17-18C TODAY...WILL DELAY THE RELIEF INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD PARENT WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIDING S ALONG
WITH WINDS TURNING W/NW. NO ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT EXPECTED
AS THE A WARM-DRY LAYER PREVAILS ALOFT. OF NOTE IS THE PRECURSOR
AIRMASS PER PORTLAND /GYX/ 12Z SOUNDING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...

TONIGHT...
WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL MOVE S INTO SNE LATE TONIGHT. MAIN
EFFECT WILL BE A WIND SHIFT TO LIGHT N WINDS AND DRYING IN THE
LOW LEVELS. NOTING KI VALUES CRASHING BELOW ZERO 06-12Z. DRY
CONDITIONS AND MOCLEAR SKIES EXPECTED. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN
IN NORMALLY PRONE LOCATIONS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70
DEGREES.

TUESDAY...
THE WEAK FRONT WILL LIKELY MIX OUT DURING THE DAY AS WEAK AREA OF
HIGH PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. VERY DRY AIR IN THE MID
LEVELS WILL RESULT IN LOTS OF SUNSHINE. SEABREEZES WILL QUICKLY
DEVELOP ON BOTH COASTS WITH COOLER TEMPS ESPECIALLY ACROSS E
COASTAL MA...BUT NOT MUCH COOLER CT VALLEY. TEMPS WILL REACH MID
TO UPPER 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST AND NEAR 90 CT VALLEY...BUT UPPER
70S ALONG IMMEDIATE COAST OF E MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSEASONABLY HOT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
* A BIT COOLER FRI INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL
* MAINLY DRY OTHER THEN PERHAPS A SPOT SHOWER/STORM THU

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
ANOMALOUS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA BY THE MID TO
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK LASTING INTO LABOR DAY. ONLY CAVEAT IS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY WHICH COULD BRING A FEW STORMS TO
THE REGION. THIS FRONT COULD ALSO COOL TEMPS DOWN ON FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH VERY LITTLE
APPRECIABLE RAIN.

DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUMMER RETURNS AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THIS PERIOD.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST OF THE WEEK AS THE
AXIS OF THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. 850MB TEMPS WILL BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL REACHING AROUND 18-20C. WHICH WILL LEAD TO HIGH TEMPS
IN THE U80S TO L90S...AND EVEN A FEW LOCATIONS REACHING THE MID 90S!
THIS COULD POTENTIAL LEAD TO THE CT RIVER VALLEY SEEING A 3 TO 4
DAYS HEAT WAVE...BEGINNING TODAY. OVERALL PRECIP CHANCES WILL LOW
DURING THE PERIOD THANKS TO THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE. HOWEVER
POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE MARITIMES WILL BRING A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT THROUGH ON THURSDAY. THIS COULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THANKS TO THE SOUPY AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A COOL DOWN IS ANTICIPATED ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE STABLE BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT. IN FACT HIGHS MAY STAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. THIS
WILL BE A WELCOME FEEL COMPARED TO THE LOW TO MID 90S POSSIBLE ON
THURSDAY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AGAIN VERY
LITTLE RAIN IS ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

15Z UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES.

TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. EXCEPT PATCHY IFR FOG LATE TONIGHT IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS. SEA BREEZES LIKELY TUESDAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE LIKELY
TUESDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. COULD SEE VERY LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.PASSING FRONT MAY TRIGGER A SPOT SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO...BUT ODDS ARE AGAINST ANYTHING WIDESPREAD.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

10 AM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES.

INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL RESULT IN SW GUSTS AROUND 20 KT
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS BUT THERE IS A LOW PROB OF SEAS BUILDING TO
5 FT OVER SOUTHERN WATERS LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. WINDS
SHIFT TO LIGHT NORTH LATE TONIGHT THEN BECOMING E/SE TUE AFTERNOON
WITH SUBSIDING SEAS.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD THROUGH THE PERIOD. NEAR SHORE WATERS MAY
GUSTS TO NEAR 15KTS EACH DAY. SCA ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH ON THURSDAY SWITCHING THE WESTERLY
WINDS TO THE EAST. OTHERWISE TRANQUIL BOATING WEATHER.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...KJC/DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 311352
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
952 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HOT AND HUMID TODAY...THEN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BRING
COOLER WEATHER TUESDAY MAINLY JUST TO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.
UNSEASONABLY HOT WEATHER RETURNS TO MOST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING SLIGHTLY
COOLER WEATHER FRIDAY INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER CONTINUING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

10 AM UPDATE...

ASIDE FROM SOME SCATTERED-BROKEN MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD DECKS
ANTICIPATE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY ALONG WITH HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS.
HIGHS AROUND THE UPPER-80S TO LOW-90S AS DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S
PREVAIL. PERHAPS SOME RELIEF WITH BREEZY W-WINDS PER FASTER
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT MIXED DOWN TO THE SURFACE BY THE DEEPENING
WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY-LAYER.

AS ALLUDED TO BY THE PRIOR FORECASTER...A MID-LEVEL VORTEX WILL
PUSH S INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE AFOREMENTIONED CYCLONIC FLOW
TOWARDS EVENING. DRIER AIR AHEAD SHOULD ERODE ANY REMNANT CLOUDS
WHEREAS REARWARD A COOLER AIRMASS PREVAILS. FEEL H85 TEMPERATURES
WILL HOLD AROUND +17-18C TODAY...WILL DELAY THE RELIEF INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD PARENT WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIDING S ALONG
WITH WINDS TURNING W/NW. NO ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT EXPECTED
AS THE A WARM-DRY LAYER PREVAILS ALOFT. OF NOTE IS THE PRECURSOR
AIRMASS PER PORTLAND /GYX/ 12Z SOUNDING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...

TONIGHT...
WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL MOVE S INTO SNE LATE TONIGHT. MAIN
EFFECT WILL BE A WIND SHIFT TO LIGHT N WINDS AND DRYING IN THE
LOW LEVELS. NOTING KI VALUES CRASHING BELOW ZERO 06-12Z. DRY
CONDITIONS AND MOCLEAR SKIES EXPECTED. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN
IN NORMALLY PRONE LOCATIONS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70
DEGREES.

TUESDAY...
THE WEAK FRONT WILL LIKELY MIX OUT DURING THE DAY AS WEAK AREA OF
HIGH PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. VERY DRY AIR IN THE MID
LEVELS WILL RESULT IN LOTS OF SUNSHINE. SEABREEZES WILL QUICKLY
DEVELOP ON BOTH COASTS WITH COOLER TEMPS ESPECIALLY ACROSS E
COASTAL MA...BUT NOT MUCH COOLER CT VALLEY. TEMPS WILL REACH MID
TO UPPER 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST AND NEAR 90 CT VALLEY...BUT UPPER
70S ALONG IMMEDIATE COAST OF E MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSEASONABLY HOT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
* A BIT COOLER FRI INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL
* MAINLY DRY OTHER THEN PERHAPS A SPOT SHOWER/STORM THU

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
ANOMALOUS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA BY THE MID TO
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK LASTING INTO LABOR DAY. ONLY CAVEAT IS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY WHICH COULD BRING A FEW STORMS TO
THE REGION. THIS FRONT COULD ALSO COOL TEMPS DOWN ON FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH VERY LITTLE
APPRECIABLE RAIN.

DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUMMER RETURNS AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THIS PERIOD.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST OF THE WEEK AS THE
AXIS OF THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. 850MB TEMPS WILL BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL REACHING AROUND 18-20C. WHICH WILL LEAD TO HIGH TEMPS
IN THE U80S TO L90S...AND EVEN A FEW LOCATIONS REACHING THE MID 90S!
THIS COULD POTENTIAL LEAD TO THE CT RIVER VALLEY SEEING A 3 TO 4
DAYS HEAT WAVE...BEGINNING TODAY. OVERALL PRECIP CHANCES WILL LOW
DURING THE PERIOD THANKS TO THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE. HOWEVER
POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE MARITIMES WILL BRING A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT THROUGH ON THURSDAY. THIS COULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THANKS TO THE SOUPY AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A COOL DOWN IS ANTICIPATED ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE STABLE BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT. IN FACT HIGHS MAY STAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. THIS
WILL BE A WELCOME FEEL COMPARED TO THE LOW TO MID 90S POSSIBLE ON
THURSDAY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AGAIN VERY
LITTLE RAIN IS ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

15Z UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES.

TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. EXCEPT PATCHY IFR FOG LATE TONIGHT IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS. SEA BREEZES LIKELY TUESDAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE LIKELY
TUESDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. COULD SEE VERY LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.PASSING FRONT MAY TRIGGER A SPOT SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO...BUT ODDS ARE AGAINST ANYTHING WIDESPREAD.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

10 AM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES.

INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL RESULT IN SW GUSTS AROUND 20 KT
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS BUT THERE IS A LOW PROB OF SEAS BUILDING TO
5 FT OVER SOUTHERN WATERS LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. WINDS
SHIFT TO LIGHT NORTH LATE TONIGHT THEN BECOMING E/SE TUE AFTERNOON
WITH SUBSIDING SEAS.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD THROUGH THE PERIOD. NEAR SHORE WATERS MAY
GUSTS TO NEAR 15KTS EACH DAY. SCA ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH ON THURSDAY SWITCHING THE WESTERLY
WINDS TO THE EAST. OTHERWISE TRANQUIL BOATING WEATHER.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...KJC/DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KALY 311221
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
821 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THIS WEEK WILL BE HOT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS
THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. HIGHS MAINLY IN 80S ARE
EXPECTED MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH SOME 90S ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH JUST
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 610 AM EDT...HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS...IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING
FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...AND ALSO SOUTH OF A WEAKENING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SETTLING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES.
ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE WAS TRANSLATING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
QUEBEC.

PATCHY FOG...SOME LOCALLY DENSE...HAS ALSO FORMED WITHIN SOME
VALLEY AREAS...PARTICULARLY WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND
EASTERN MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY...AS WELL AS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SW VT
AND WESTERN MA. THIS FOG AND LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BURN OFF BETWEEN 8
AND 10 AM.

WE EXPECT THE HIGH CLOUDS TO PERSIST ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS
THROUGH THIS MORNING...BEFORE THINNING FROM NW TO SE THIS
AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...PATCHY LOW/MID CLOUDS WILL OCCASIONALLY
PASS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY REGION
THIS MORNING.

THEN...FROM LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WE EXPECT
SKIES TO VARY FROM PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY...AS CU/STRATO-CU FORM.
THERE COULD BE A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE
EARLY AFTERNOON ONCE CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE REACHED...ESP ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. EVENTUALLY...AS DRIER AIR SEEPS SOUTHWARD...WE
EXPECT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF CLOUDS TO DECREASE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

SOME MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOP FROM THESE
CLOUDS...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STRONG CAPPING AND MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPING. SO...WILL KEEP OUT MENTION OF ANY SHOWERS
AT THIS TIME...BUT RADAR TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED...IN CASE
ANY OF THE BUILDING CU CAN GROW TALL ENOUGH AND PRODUCE ISOLATED
SHOWERS.

IT WILL BECOME BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON...AS 850-700 MB WINDS
STRENGTHEN BETWEEN AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND
A LOW LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR SOUTHEAST. AS MIXING DEEPENS BY THIS
AFTERNOON...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE
INTO THE 10-20 MPH RANGE...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING UP TO
25 MPH AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN THE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN MUCH OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY...PERHAPS NEARING 90 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
ASSUMING THE HIGH CLOUDS DEPART SOON ENOUGH. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT
MAINLY LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS...AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GENERALLY WARM WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THERE
COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING. MAX
TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID/UPPER 80S IN VALLEYS ON TUE...WITH
LOWER 80S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS...THEN SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER ON WED...REACHING AROUND 90 FOR VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 80S
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER/MID
60S...GIVING HEAT INDICES OF 85-90 TUE...AND 90-95 ON WED.
OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AS WELL AS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT
AND WESTERN MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. MUCH OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE VERY WARM TO HOT
WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION. ANY CONVECTION
THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY ISOLATED. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
PORTION OF THE FA THURSDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND TRAILING
COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA.

HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S...EXCEPT FOR
SOME UPPER 70S ACROSS TERRAIN ABOVE 2000 FEET. LOWS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITATION BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOG HAS BEEN A LITTLE MORE PERSISTENT OVER PARTS OF ERN NY AND
WRN NEW ENGLAND. LIFR/IFR FOG WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVER KPSF FOR A
COUPLE MORE HOURS. A TEMPO GROUP WAS ADDED FROM 12Z-14Z THERE.
SOME PATCHY MVFR MIST WILL LINGER UNTIL 13Z AT KGFL/KALB.

ONCE FOG BURNS OFF EARLY THIS MORNING...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE IN PLACE FOR ALL TAF SITES WITH SCT CIRRUS CLOUDS AROUND.
SOME SCT CU MAY DEVELOP BY AFTN...MAINLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.
SKIES WILL BECOME SKC THIS EVENING WITH FOG DEVELOPING AT
KGFL/KPSF AROUND 03Z AND BCMG IFR/LIFR BY 08Z. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME W AT 8-15 KTS TODAY AND THEN BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...

A WEAK TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL PRODUCE SOME
GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST. SPEEDS WILL
GENERALLY AVERAGE 10-20 MPH...BUT SOME GUSTS OF UP TO 25 MPH COULD
OCCUR...ESP IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL
REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET...BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY.

THE RH WILL FALL INTO THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN RECOVER TO 90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH WILL
FALL TO 40-5O PERCENT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THU AND
FRI...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOONS.

WIDESPREAD DEW FORMATION IS LIKELY TONIGHT...AND AGAIN TUE NT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED AUGUST 27
THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST 29, 30
AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY.
DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11/WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL
CLIMATE...IAA



000
FXUS61 KALY 311221
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
821 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THIS WEEK WILL BE HOT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS
THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. HIGHS MAINLY IN 80S ARE
EXPECTED MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH SOME 90S ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH JUST
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 610 AM EDT...HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS...IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING
FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...AND ALSO SOUTH OF A WEAKENING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SETTLING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES.
ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE WAS TRANSLATING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
QUEBEC.

PATCHY FOG...SOME LOCALLY DENSE...HAS ALSO FORMED WITHIN SOME
VALLEY AREAS...PARTICULARLY WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND
EASTERN MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY...AS WELL AS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SW VT
AND WESTERN MA. THIS FOG AND LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BURN OFF BETWEEN 8
AND 10 AM.

WE EXPECT THE HIGH CLOUDS TO PERSIST ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS
THROUGH THIS MORNING...BEFORE THINNING FROM NW TO SE THIS
AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...PATCHY LOW/MID CLOUDS WILL OCCASIONALLY
PASS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY REGION
THIS MORNING.

THEN...FROM LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WE EXPECT
SKIES TO VARY FROM PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY...AS CU/STRATO-CU FORM.
THERE COULD BE A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE
EARLY AFTERNOON ONCE CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE REACHED...ESP ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. EVENTUALLY...AS DRIER AIR SEEPS SOUTHWARD...WE
EXPECT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF CLOUDS TO DECREASE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

SOME MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOP FROM THESE
CLOUDS...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STRONG CAPPING AND MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPING. SO...WILL KEEP OUT MENTION OF ANY SHOWERS
AT THIS TIME...BUT RADAR TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED...IN CASE
ANY OF THE BUILDING CU CAN GROW TALL ENOUGH AND PRODUCE ISOLATED
SHOWERS.

IT WILL BECOME BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON...AS 850-700 MB WINDS
STRENGTHEN BETWEEN AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND
A LOW LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR SOUTHEAST. AS MIXING DEEPENS BY THIS
AFTERNOON...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE
INTO THE 10-20 MPH RANGE...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING UP TO
25 MPH AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN THE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN MUCH OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY...PERHAPS NEARING 90 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
ASSUMING THE HIGH CLOUDS DEPART SOON ENOUGH. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT
MAINLY LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS...AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GENERALLY WARM WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THERE
COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING. MAX
TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID/UPPER 80S IN VALLEYS ON TUE...WITH
LOWER 80S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS...THEN SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER ON WED...REACHING AROUND 90 FOR VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 80S
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER/MID
60S...GIVING HEAT INDICES OF 85-90 TUE...AND 90-95 ON WED.
OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AS WELL AS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT
AND WESTERN MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. MUCH OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE VERY WARM TO HOT
WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION. ANY CONVECTION
THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY ISOLATED. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
PORTION OF THE FA THURSDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND TRAILING
COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA.

HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S...EXCEPT FOR
SOME UPPER 70S ACROSS TERRAIN ABOVE 2000 FEET. LOWS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITATION BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOG HAS BEEN A LITTLE MORE PERSISTENT OVER PARTS OF ERN NY AND
WRN NEW ENGLAND. LIFR/IFR FOG WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVER KPSF FOR A
COUPLE MORE HOURS. A TEMPO GROUP WAS ADDED FROM 12Z-14Z THERE.
SOME PATCHY MVFR MIST WILL LINGER UNTIL 13Z AT KGFL/KALB.

ONCE FOG BURNS OFF EARLY THIS MORNING...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE IN PLACE FOR ALL TAF SITES WITH SCT CIRRUS CLOUDS AROUND.
SOME SCT CU MAY DEVELOP BY AFTN...MAINLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.
SKIES WILL BECOME SKC THIS EVENING WITH FOG DEVELOPING AT
KGFL/KPSF AROUND 03Z AND BCMG IFR/LIFR BY 08Z. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME W AT 8-15 KTS TODAY AND THEN BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...

A WEAK TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL PRODUCE SOME
GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST. SPEEDS WILL
GENERALLY AVERAGE 10-20 MPH...BUT SOME GUSTS OF UP TO 25 MPH COULD
OCCUR...ESP IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL
REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET...BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY.

THE RH WILL FALL INTO THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN RECOVER TO 90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH WILL
FALL TO 40-5O PERCENT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THU AND
FRI...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOONS.

WIDESPREAD DEW FORMATION IS LIKELY TONIGHT...AND AGAIN TUE NT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED AUGUST 27
THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST 29, 30
AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY.
DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11/WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL
CLIMATE...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 311221
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
821 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THIS WEEK WILL BE HOT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS
THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. HIGHS MAINLY IN 80S ARE
EXPECTED MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH SOME 90S ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH JUST
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 610 AM EDT...HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS...IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING
FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...AND ALSO SOUTH OF A WEAKENING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SETTLING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES.
ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE WAS TRANSLATING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
QUEBEC.

PATCHY FOG...SOME LOCALLY DENSE...HAS ALSO FORMED WITHIN SOME
VALLEY AREAS...PARTICULARLY WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND
EASTERN MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY...AS WELL AS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SW VT
AND WESTERN MA. THIS FOG AND LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BURN OFF BETWEEN 8
AND 10 AM.

WE EXPECT THE HIGH CLOUDS TO PERSIST ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS
THROUGH THIS MORNING...BEFORE THINNING FROM NW TO SE THIS
AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...PATCHY LOW/MID CLOUDS WILL OCCASIONALLY
PASS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY REGION
THIS MORNING.

THEN...FROM LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WE EXPECT
SKIES TO VARY FROM PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY...AS CU/STRATO-CU FORM.
THERE COULD BE A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE
EARLY AFTERNOON ONCE CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE REACHED...ESP ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. EVENTUALLY...AS DRIER AIR SEEPS SOUTHWARD...WE
EXPECT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF CLOUDS TO DECREASE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

SOME MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOP FROM THESE
CLOUDS...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STRONG CAPPING AND MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPING. SO...WILL KEEP OUT MENTION OF ANY SHOWERS
AT THIS TIME...BUT RADAR TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED...IN CASE
ANY OF THE BUILDING CU CAN GROW TALL ENOUGH AND PRODUCE ISOLATED
SHOWERS.

IT WILL BECOME BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON...AS 850-700 MB WINDS
STRENGTHEN BETWEEN AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND
A LOW LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR SOUTHEAST. AS MIXING DEEPENS BY THIS
AFTERNOON...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE
INTO THE 10-20 MPH RANGE...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING UP TO
25 MPH AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN THE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN MUCH OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY...PERHAPS NEARING 90 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
ASSUMING THE HIGH CLOUDS DEPART SOON ENOUGH. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT
MAINLY LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS...AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GENERALLY WARM WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THERE
COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING. MAX
TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID/UPPER 80S IN VALLEYS ON TUE...WITH
LOWER 80S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS...THEN SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER ON WED...REACHING AROUND 90 FOR VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 80S
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER/MID
60S...GIVING HEAT INDICES OF 85-90 TUE...AND 90-95 ON WED.
OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AS WELL AS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT
AND WESTERN MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. MUCH OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE VERY WARM TO HOT
WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION. ANY CONVECTION
THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY ISOLATED. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
PORTION OF THE FA THURSDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND TRAILING
COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA.

HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S...EXCEPT FOR
SOME UPPER 70S ACROSS TERRAIN ABOVE 2000 FEET. LOWS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITATION BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOG HAS BEEN A LITTLE MORE PERSISTENT OVER PARTS OF ERN NY AND
WRN NEW ENGLAND. LIFR/IFR FOG WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVER KPSF FOR A
COUPLE MORE HOURS. A TEMPO GROUP WAS ADDED FROM 12Z-14Z THERE.
SOME PATCHY MVFR MIST WILL LINGER UNTIL 13Z AT KGFL/KALB.

ONCE FOG BURNS OFF EARLY THIS MORNING...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE IN PLACE FOR ALL TAF SITES WITH SCT CIRRUS CLOUDS AROUND.
SOME SCT CU MAY DEVELOP BY AFTN...MAINLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.
SKIES WILL BECOME SKC THIS EVENING WITH FOG DEVELOPING AT
KGFL/KPSF AROUND 03Z AND BCMG IFR/LIFR BY 08Z. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME W AT 8-15 KTS TODAY AND THEN BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...

A WEAK TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL PRODUCE SOME
GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST. SPEEDS WILL
GENERALLY AVERAGE 10-20 MPH...BUT SOME GUSTS OF UP TO 25 MPH COULD
OCCUR...ESP IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL
REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET...BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY.

THE RH WILL FALL INTO THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN RECOVER TO 90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH WILL
FALL TO 40-5O PERCENT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THU AND
FRI...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOONS.

WIDESPREAD DEW FORMATION IS LIKELY TONIGHT...AND AGAIN TUE NT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED AUGUST 27
THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST 29, 30
AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY.
DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11/WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL
CLIMATE...IAA



000
FXUS61 KALY 311221
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
821 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THIS WEEK WILL BE HOT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS
THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. HIGHS MAINLY IN 80S ARE
EXPECTED MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH SOME 90S ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH JUST
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 610 AM EDT...HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS...IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING
FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...AND ALSO SOUTH OF A WEAKENING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SETTLING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES.
ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE WAS TRANSLATING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
QUEBEC.

PATCHY FOG...SOME LOCALLY DENSE...HAS ALSO FORMED WITHIN SOME
VALLEY AREAS...PARTICULARLY WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND
EASTERN MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY...AS WELL AS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SW VT
AND WESTERN MA. THIS FOG AND LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BURN OFF BETWEEN 8
AND 10 AM.

WE EXPECT THE HIGH CLOUDS TO PERSIST ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS
THROUGH THIS MORNING...BEFORE THINNING FROM NW TO SE THIS
AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...PATCHY LOW/MID CLOUDS WILL OCCASIONALLY
PASS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY REGION
THIS MORNING.

THEN...FROM LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WE EXPECT
SKIES TO VARY FROM PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY...AS CU/STRATO-CU FORM.
THERE COULD BE A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE
EARLY AFTERNOON ONCE CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE REACHED...ESP ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. EVENTUALLY...AS DRIER AIR SEEPS SOUTHWARD...WE
EXPECT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF CLOUDS TO DECREASE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

SOME MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOP FROM THESE
CLOUDS...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STRONG CAPPING AND MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPING. SO...WILL KEEP OUT MENTION OF ANY SHOWERS
AT THIS TIME...BUT RADAR TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED...IN CASE
ANY OF THE BUILDING CU CAN GROW TALL ENOUGH AND PRODUCE ISOLATED
SHOWERS.

IT WILL BECOME BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON...AS 850-700 MB WINDS
STRENGTHEN BETWEEN AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND
A LOW LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR SOUTHEAST. AS MIXING DEEPENS BY THIS
AFTERNOON...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE
INTO THE 10-20 MPH RANGE...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING UP TO
25 MPH AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN THE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN MUCH OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY...PERHAPS NEARING 90 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
ASSUMING THE HIGH CLOUDS DEPART SOON ENOUGH. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT
MAINLY LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS...AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GENERALLY WARM WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THERE
COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING. MAX
TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID/UPPER 80S IN VALLEYS ON TUE...WITH
LOWER 80S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS...THEN SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER ON WED...REACHING AROUND 90 FOR VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 80S
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER/MID
60S...GIVING HEAT INDICES OF 85-90 TUE...AND 90-95 ON WED.
OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AS WELL AS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT
AND WESTERN MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. MUCH OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE VERY WARM TO HOT
WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION. ANY CONVECTION
THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY ISOLATED. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
PORTION OF THE FA THURSDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND TRAILING
COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA.

HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S...EXCEPT FOR
SOME UPPER 70S ACROSS TERRAIN ABOVE 2000 FEET. LOWS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITATION BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOG HAS BEEN A LITTLE MORE PERSISTENT OVER PARTS OF ERN NY AND
WRN NEW ENGLAND. LIFR/IFR FOG WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVER KPSF FOR A
COUPLE MORE HOURS. A TEMPO GROUP WAS ADDED FROM 12Z-14Z THERE.
SOME PATCHY MVFR MIST WILL LINGER UNTIL 13Z AT KGFL/KALB.

ONCE FOG BURNS OFF EARLY THIS MORNING...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE IN PLACE FOR ALL TAF SITES WITH SCT CIRRUS CLOUDS AROUND.
SOME SCT CU MAY DEVELOP BY AFTN...MAINLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.
SKIES WILL BECOME SKC THIS EVENING WITH FOG DEVELOPING AT
KGFL/KPSF AROUND 03Z AND BCMG IFR/LIFR BY 08Z. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME W AT 8-15 KTS TODAY AND THEN BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...

A WEAK TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL PRODUCE SOME
GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST. SPEEDS WILL
GENERALLY AVERAGE 10-20 MPH...BUT SOME GUSTS OF UP TO 25 MPH COULD
OCCUR...ESP IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL
REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET...BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY.

THE RH WILL FALL INTO THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN RECOVER TO 90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH WILL
FALL TO 40-5O PERCENT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THU AND
FRI...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOONS.

WIDESPREAD DEW FORMATION IS LIKELY TONIGHT...AND AGAIN TUE NT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED AUGUST 27
THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST 29, 30
AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY.
DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11/WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL
CLIMATE...IAA




000
FXUS61 KOKX 311126
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
726 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE OTHERWISE STRENGTHENS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BKN MID AND UPPER LVL CLOUDS WITH SCT SPRINKLES WILL CONTINUE MVG EAST
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NJ...SOUTH OF THE AREA...ASSOCIATED
WITH AN APPROACHING WEAK UPSTREAM TROUGH.

RADIATIONAL PATCHY GROUND FOG CONTS TO DEVELOP WEST AND NORTH OF
NYC...INCLUDING INTERIOR SW CT. DESPITE FWN / SUSSEX CO NJ
REPORTING 1/2 MILE...MOST AREAS SHOULD EXPERIENCE VSBYS NO LOWER
THAN 2 MILES UNTIL ARND 13Z.

BACK DOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY. AS IT
APPROACHES...A SOUTHWEST GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THAT AND HIGH
PRES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. THIS INCREASED SW FLOW WILL RESULT IN
A WARM AND HUMID DAY AS SFC DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE MID AND UPPER
60S.

MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 FOR
MOST OF THE REGION...AND THE WARMEST TEMPS WILL OCCUR ACROSS NYC
AND URBANIZED PORTIONS OF NE NJ...WHERE HIGHS WILL TOP OFF IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S. FOR NYC...THE HEAT INDEX SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 95
TODAY.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. WITH
MINIMAL UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...NOT EXPECTING SHRA/TSRA...SO WILL
CARRY A DRY FORECAST. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...AND SFC DEWPOINTS WILL DROP A BIT...
GENERALLY FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S TO THE LOW TO MID 60S. WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS...SOME PATCHY FOG
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND
LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

HIGH PRES STRENGTHENS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. TEMPS DROP A BIT ON
TUESDAY AS COMPARED TO TODAY...BUT WILL STILL TOP OFF IN THE UPPER
80S TO AROUND 90 WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. BETTER
CHANCE FOR SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT AT THE COASTS ON TUESDAY AS SFC
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT DURING THE DAY. THE HEAT INDEX SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW 95 ON TUESDAY IN NYC.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE REPLACED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY
WILL CONTINUE AS AIR QUALITY DECREASES UNDER A STAGNANT DOME OF
HIGH PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE AT LEAST 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. ALTHO NOT IN THE LATEST FCST...CAN NOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED TSTM WED AFTN AND EVE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DAY TIME
THERMAL TROUGH.

DAY TIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S BOTH WED AND THU WITH HEAT
INDEX VALUES APPROACHING 95 DEGS ACROSS NYC AND URBAN NE NJ.

LATE THURSDAY-EARLY FRIDAY...A STRONGER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO PROVIDE SOME RELIEF INITIALLY IN THE FORM OF WIDELY SCT TSTMS
MAINLY THU AFTN - EVE. FCST A POP OF 20 PCT...WHICH MAY NEED TO BE
INCREASED IN LATER FORECASTS.

LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MARITIME POLAR AIR ON EAST WINDS REPLACES
THE MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP REGION WIDE...BUT ESPECIALLY
ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR THE TERMINALS TODAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS FROM THE NORTH AND EAST
TONIGHT.

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

W-WSW WINDS 5 TO 10 KT THIS MORNING INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 THIS
AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT FOR CITY TERMINALS. GUSTS END
AFTER SUNSET WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KT. WIND SPEEDS DECREASE
OVERNIGHT...BUT VEER AROUND TO THE WNW AND THEN N-NNE LATE BEHIND
COLD FRONT.

PATCHY MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE AT OUTLYING TERMINALS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

   ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST. SEA
BREEZE LIKELY STAYS SOUTH AND EAST OF TERMINAL...WITH LOW CHANCE
FOR IT TO MOVE THROUGH AFTER 19Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.
OCCASIONAL WIND GUST TO 20 KT POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES PROBABLE
EACH AFTERNOON.
.THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES PROBABLE.
.FRIDAY...VFR. ENE WINDS G15-20KT.

&&

.MARINE...
SW PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS TODAY BETWEEN AN APPROACHING BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT AND SFC HIGH PRES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC. WINDS AND SEAS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY/SCA LEVELS ON ALL
WATERS... BUT SEAS MAY BRIEFLY BUILD TO 5 FT ON THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN OCEAN WATERS THIS AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE...CONDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CONDS THROUGH THU.

LATE THU-THU NIGHT...WIDELY SCT TSTMS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

FRI...THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND
SEAS WILL OCCUR AS WINDS SHIFT FROM THE EAST AT 15-20 KT FOLLOWING
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT AS HIGH PRES MOVES EAST ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THU AFTN-EARLY FRI...WIDELY SCT TSTMS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH LESS THAN 1/4 INCH RAIN.

NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A RECENT FULL MOON...BRIEF MINOR INUNDATION IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE ACROSS THE TYPICALLY VULNERABLE
COASTAL LOCALES FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GC/MPS
NEAR TERM...GC/MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...GC
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...GC/MPS
HYDROLOGY...GC/MPS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KOKX 311126
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
726 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE OTHERWISE STRENGTHENS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BKN MID AND UPPER LVL CLOUDS WITH SCT SPRINKLES WILL CONTINUE MVG EAST
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NJ...SOUTH OF THE AREA...ASSOCIATED
WITH AN APPROACHING WEAK UPSTREAM TROUGH.

RADIATIONAL PATCHY GROUND FOG CONTS TO DEVELOP WEST AND NORTH OF
NYC...INCLUDING INTERIOR SW CT. DESPITE FWN / SUSSEX CO NJ
REPORTING 1/2 MILE...MOST AREAS SHOULD EXPERIENCE VSBYS NO LOWER
THAN 2 MILES UNTIL ARND 13Z.

BACK DOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY. AS IT
APPROACHES...A SOUTHWEST GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THAT AND HIGH
PRES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. THIS INCREASED SW FLOW WILL RESULT IN
A WARM AND HUMID DAY AS SFC DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE MID AND UPPER
60S.

MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 FOR
MOST OF THE REGION...AND THE WARMEST TEMPS WILL OCCUR ACROSS NYC
AND URBANIZED PORTIONS OF NE NJ...WHERE HIGHS WILL TOP OFF IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S. FOR NYC...THE HEAT INDEX SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 95
TODAY.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. WITH
MINIMAL UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...NOT EXPECTING SHRA/TSRA...SO WILL
CARRY A DRY FORECAST. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...AND SFC DEWPOINTS WILL DROP A BIT...
GENERALLY FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S TO THE LOW TO MID 60S. WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS...SOME PATCHY FOG
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND
LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

HIGH PRES STRENGTHENS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. TEMPS DROP A BIT ON
TUESDAY AS COMPARED TO TODAY...BUT WILL STILL TOP OFF IN THE UPPER
80S TO AROUND 90 WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. BETTER
CHANCE FOR SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT AT THE COASTS ON TUESDAY AS SFC
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT DURING THE DAY. THE HEAT INDEX SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW 95 ON TUESDAY IN NYC.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE REPLACED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY
WILL CONTINUE AS AIR QUALITY DECREASES UNDER A STAGNANT DOME OF
HIGH PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE AT LEAST 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. ALTHO NOT IN THE LATEST FCST...CAN NOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED TSTM WED AFTN AND EVE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DAY TIME
THERMAL TROUGH.

DAY TIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S BOTH WED AND THU WITH HEAT
INDEX VALUES APPROACHING 95 DEGS ACROSS NYC AND URBAN NE NJ.

LATE THURSDAY-EARLY FRIDAY...A STRONGER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO PROVIDE SOME RELIEF INITIALLY IN THE FORM OF WIDELY SCT TSTMS
MAINLY THU AFTN - EVE. FCST A POP OF 20 PCT...WHICH MAY NEED TO BE
INCREASED IN LATER FORECASTS.

LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MARITIME POLAR AIR ON EAST WINDS REPLACES
THE MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP REGION WIDE...BUT ESPECIALLY
ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR THE TERMINALS TODAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS FROM THE NORTH AND EAST
TONIGHT.

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

W-WSW WINDS 5 TO 10 KT THIS MORNING INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 THIS
AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT FOR CITY TERMINALS. GUSTS END
AFTER SUNSET WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KT. WIND SPEEDS DECREASE
OVERNIGHT...BUT VEER AROUND TO THE WNW AND THEN N-NNE LATE BEHIND
COLD FRONT.

PATCHY MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE AT OUTLYING TERMINALS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

   ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST. SEA
BREEZE LIKELY STAYS SOUTH AND EAST OF TERMINAL...WITH LOW CHANCE
FOR IT TO MOVE THROUGH AFTER 19Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.
OCCASIONAL WIND GUST TO 20 KT POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES PROBABLE
EACH AFTERNOON.
.THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES PROBABLE.
.FRIDAY...VFR. ENE WINDS G15-20KT.

&&

.MARINE...
SW PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS TODAY BETWEEN AN APPROACHING BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT AND SFC HIGH PRES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC. WINDS AND SEAS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY/SCA LEVELS ON ALL
WATERS... BUT SEAS MAY BRIEFLY BUILD TO 5 FT ON THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN OCEAN WATERS THIS AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE...CONDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CONDS THROUGH THU.

LATE THU-THU NIGHT...WIDELY SCT TSTMS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

FRI...THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND
SEAS WILL OCCUR AS WINDS SHIFT FROM THE EAST AT 15-20 KT FOLLOWING
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT AS HIGH PRES MOVES EAST ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THU AFTN-EARLY FRI...WIDELY SCT TSTMS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH LESS THAN 1/4 INCH RAIN.

NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A RECENT FULL MOON...BRIEF MINOR INUNDATION IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE ACROSS THE TYPICALLY VULNERABLE
COASTAL LOCALES FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GC/MPS
NEAR TERM...GC/MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...GC
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...GC/MPS
HYDROLOGY...GC/MPS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 311050
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
650 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS TODAY...THEN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL
BRING COOLER WEATHER TUESDAY MAINLY JUST TO EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND. UNSEASONABLY HOT WEATHER RETURNS TO MOST OF THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING
SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER FRIDAY INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER
CONTINUING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

PATCHY GROUND FOG...SOME OF IT DENSE IN THE CT RIVER VALLEY WILL
BEGIN TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT HOUR AS DIURNAL HEATING BEGINS.
OTHERWISE HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS SOUTH OF THE PIKE WILL LINGER THROUGH
THE MORNING BEFORE GIVING WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS
AFTERNOON. ASIDE FROM A FEW MINOR TWEAKS...A VERY WARM DAY IS IN
STORE AS THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

OTHERWISE...MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE WILL
GIVE WAY TO INCREASING SUNSHINE TODAY AS PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL
DRYING MOVES S INTO SNE.

MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE MARITIMES WILL BRING A
COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO MAINE THIS AFTERNOON. GENERALLY W FLOW IN
SNE AHEAD OF THE FRONT COMBINED WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 17C WILL
RESULT IN A HOT DAY WITH TEMPS UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...A BIT COOLER HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S
COAST WHERE SW WINDS WILL DEVELOP. IT WILL BE MODERATELY HUMID
WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. WE WILL LIKELY GENERATE
500-1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE BUT VERY DRY MID LEVELS AND LOW KI VALUES
WILL RESULT IN A DRY DAY WITH NO CONVECTION EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL MOVE S INTO SNE LATE TONIGHT. MAIN
EFFECT WILL BE A WIND SHIFT TO LIGHT N WINDS AND DRYING IN THE
LOW LEVELS. NOTING KI VALUES CRASHING BELOW ZERO 06-12Z. DRY
CONDITIONS AND MOCLEAR SKIES EXPECTED. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN
IN NORMALLY PRONE LOCATIONS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70
DEGREES.

TUESDAY...
THE WEAK FRONT WILL LIKELY MIX OUT DURING THE DAY AS WEAK AREA OF
HIGH PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. VERY DRY AIR IN THE MID
LEVELS WILL RESULT IN LOTS OF SUNSHINE. SEABREEZES WILL QUICKLY
DEVELOP ON BOTH COASTS WITH COOLER TEMPS ESPECIALLY ACROSS E
COASTAL MA...BUT NOT MUCH COOLER CT VALLEY. TEMPS WILL REACH MID
TO UPPER 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST AND NEAR 90 CT VALLEY...BUT UPPER
70S ALONG IMMEDIATE COAST OF E MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSEASONABLY HOT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
* A BIT COOLER FRI INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL
* MAINLY DRY OTHER THEN PERHAPS A SPOT SHOWER/STORM THU

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
ANOMALOUS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA BY THE MID TO
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK LASTING INTO LABOR DAY. ONLY CAVEAT IS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY WHICH COULD BRING A FEW STORMS TO
THE REGION. THIS FRONT COULD ALSO COOL TEMPS DOWN ON FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH VERY LITTLE
APPRECIABLE RAIN.

DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUMMER RETURNS AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THIS PERIOD.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST OF THE WEEK AS THE
AXIS OF THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. 850MB TEMPS WILL BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL REACHING AROUND 18-20C. WHICH WILL LEAD TO HIGH TEMPS
IN THE U80S TO L90S...AND EVEN A FEW LOCATIONS REACHING THE MID 90S!
THIS COULD POTENTIAL LEAD TO THE CT RIVER VALLEY SEEING A 3 TO 4
DAYS HEAT WAVE...BEGINNING TODAY. OVERALL PRECIP CHANCES WILL LOW
DURING THE PERIOD THANKS TO THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE. HOWEVER
POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE MARITIMES WILL BRING A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT THROUGH ON THURSDAY. THIS COULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THANKS TO THE SOUPY AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A COOL DOWN IS ANTICIPATED ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE STABLE BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT. IN FACT HIGHS MAY STAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. THIS
WILL BE A WELCOME FEEL COMPARED TO THE LOW TO MID 90S POSSIBLE ON
THURSDAY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AGAIN VERY
LITTLE RAIN IS ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. EXCEPT PATCHY IFR
FOG LATE TONIGHT IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS. SEA BREEZES
LIKELY TUESDAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE LIKELY
TUESDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. COULD SEE VERY LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.PASSING FRONT MAY TRIGGER A SPOT SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO...BUT ODDS ARE AGAINST ANYTHING WIDESPREAD.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL RESULT IN SW GUSTS AROUND 20 KT
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS BUT THERE IS A LOW PROB OF SEAS BUILDING TO
5 FT OVER SOUTHERN WATERS LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. WINDS
SHIFT TO LIGHT NORTH LATE TONIGHT THEN BECOMING E/SE TUE AFTERNOON
WITH SUBSIDING SEAS.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD THROUGH THE PERIOD. NEAR SHORE WATERS MAY
GUSTS TO NEAR 15KTS EACH DAY. SCA ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH ON THURSDAY SWITCHING THE WESTERLY
WINDS TO THE EAST. OTHERWISE TRANQUIL BOATING WEATHER.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...KJC/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN
MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 311050
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
650 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS TODAY...THEN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL
BRING COOLER WEATHER TUESDAY MAINLY JUST TO EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND. UNSEASONABLY HOT WEATHER RETURNS TO MOST OF THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING
SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER FRIDAY INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER
CONTINUING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

PATCHY GROUND FOG...SOME OF IT DENSE IN THE CT RIVER VALLEY WILL
BEGIN TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT HOUR AS DIURNAL HEATING BEGINS.
OTHERWISE HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS SOUTH OF THE PIKE WILL LINGER THROUGH
THE MORNING BEFORE GIVING WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS
AFTERNOON. ASIDE FROM A FEW MINOR TWEAKS...A VERY WARM DAY IS IN
STORE AS THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

OTHERWISE...MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE WILL
GIVE WAY TO INCREASING SUNSHINE TODAY AS PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL
DRYING MOVES S INTO SNE.

MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE MARITIMES WILL BRING A
COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO MAINE THIS AFTERNOON. GENERALLY W FLOW IN
SNE AHEAD OF THE FRONT COMBINED WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 17C WILL
RESULT IN A HOT DAY WITH TEMPS UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...A BIT COOLER HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S
COAST WHERE SW WINDS WILL DEVELOP. IT WILL BE MODERATELY HUMID
WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. WE WILL LIKELY GENERATE
500-1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE BUT VERY DRY MID LEVELS AND LOW KI VALUES
WILL RESULT IN A DRY DAY WITH NO CONVECTION EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL MOVE S INTO SNE LATE TONIGHT. MAIN
EFFECT WILL BE A WIND SHIFT TO LIGHT N WINDS AND DRYING IN THE
LOW LEVELS. NOTING KI VALUES CRASHING BELOW ZERO 06-12Z. DRY
CONDITIONS AND MOCLEAR SKIES EXPECTED. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN
IN NORMALLY PRONE LOCATIONS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70
DEGREES.

TUESDAY...
THE WEAK FRONT WILL LIKELY MIX OUT DURING THE DAY AS WEAK AREA OF
HIGH PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. VERY DRY AIR IN THE MID
LEVELS WILL RESULT IN LOTS OF SUNSHINE. SEABREEZES WILL QUICKLY
DEVELOP ON BOTH COASTS WITH COOLER TEMPS ESPECIALLY ACROSS E
COASTAL MA...BUT NOT MUCH COOLER CT VALLEY. TEMPS WILL REACH MID
TO UPPER 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST AND NEAR 90 CT VALLEY...BUT UPPER
70S ALONG IMMEDIATE COAST OF E MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSEASONABLY HOT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
* A BIT COOLER FRI INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL
* MAINLY DRY OTHER THEN PERHAPS A SPOT SHOWER/STORM THU

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
ANOMALOUS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA BY THE MID TO
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK LASTING INTO LABOR DAY. ONLY CAVEAT IS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY WHICH COULD BRING A FEW STORMS TO
THE REGION. THIS FRONT COULD ALSO COOL TEMPS DOWN ON FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH VERY LITTLE
APPRECIABLE RAIN.

DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUMMER RETURNS AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THIS PERIOD.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST OF THE WEEK AS THE
AXIS OF THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. 850MB TEMPS WILL BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL REACHING AROUND 18-20C. WHICH WILL LEAD TO HIGH TEMPS
IN THE U80S TO L90S...AND EVEN A FEW LOCATIONS REACHING THE MID 90S!
THIS COULD POTENTIAL LEAD TO THE CT RIVER VALLEY SEEING A 3 TO 4
DAYS HEAT WAVE...BEGINNING TODAY. OVERALL PRECIP CHANCES WILL LOW
DURING THE PERIOD THANKS TO THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE. HOWEVER
POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE MARITIMES WILL BRING A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT THROUGH ON THURSDAY. THIS COULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THANKS TO THE SOUPY AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A COOL DOWN IS ANTICIPATED ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE STABLE BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT. IN FACT HIGHS MAY STAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. THIS
WILL BE A WELCOME FEEL COMPARED TO THE LOW TO MID 90S POSSIBLE ON
THURSDAY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AGAIN VERY
LITTLE RAIN IS ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. EXCEPT PATCHY IFR
FOG LATE TONIGHT IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS. SEA BREEZES
LIKELY TUESDAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE LIKELY
TUESDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. COULD SEE VERY LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.PASSING FRONT MAY TRIGGER A SPOT SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO...BUT ODDS ARE AGAINST ANYTHING WIDESPREAD.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL RESULT IN SW GUSTS AROUND 20 KT
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS BUT THERE IS A LOW PROB OF SEAS BUILDING TO
5 FT OVER SOUTHERN WATERS LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. WINDS
SHIFT TO LIGHT NORTH LATE TONIGHT THEN BECOMING E/SE TUE AFTERNOON
WITH SUBSIDING SEAS.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD THROUGH THE PERIOD. NEAR SHORE WATERS MAY
GUSTS TO NEAR 15KTS EACH DAY. SCA ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH ON THURSDAY SWITCHING THE WESTERLY
WINDS TO THE EAST. OTHERWISE TRANQUIL BOATING WEATHER.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...KJC/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN
MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 311050
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
650 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS TODAY...THEN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL
BRING COOLER WEATHER TUESDAY MAINLY JUST TO EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND. UNSEASONABLY HOT WEATHER RETURNS TO MOST OF THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING
SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER FRIDAY INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER
CONTINUING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

PATCHY GROUND FOG...SOME OF IT DENSE IN THE CT RIVER VALLEY WILL
BEGIN TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT HOUR AS DIURNAL HEATING BEGINS.
OTHERWISE HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS SOUTH OF THE PIKE WILL LINGER THROUGH
THE MORNING BEFORE GIVING WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS
AFTERNOON. ASIDE FROM A FEW MINOR TWEAKS...A VERY WARM DAY IS IN
STORE AS THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

OTHERWISE...MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE WILL
GIVE WAY TO INCREASING SUNSHINE TODAY AS PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL
DRYING MOVES S INTO SNE.

MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE MARITIMES WILL BRING A
COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO MAINE THIS AFTERNOON. GENERALLY W FLOW IN
SNE AHEAD OF THE FRONT COMBINED WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 17C WILL
RESULT IN A HOT DAY WITH TEMPS UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...A BIT COOLER HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S
COAST WHERE SW WINDS WILL DEVELOP. IT WILL BE MODERATELY HUMID
WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. WE WILL LIKELY GENERATE
500-1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE BUT VERY DRY MID LEVELS AND LOW KI VALUES
WILL RESULT IN A DRY DAY WITH NO CONVECTION EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL MOVE S INTO SNE LATE TONIGHT. MAIN
EFFECT WILL BE A WIND SHIFT TO LIGHT N WINDS AND DRYING IN THE
LOW LEVELS. NOTING KI VALUES CRASHING BELOW ZERO 06-12Z. DRY
CONDITIONS AND MOCLEAR SKIES EXPECTED. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN
IN NORMALLY PRONE LOCATIONS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70
DEGREES.

TUESDAY...
THE WEAK FRONT WILL LIKELY MIX OUT DURING THE DAY AS WEAK AREA OF
HIGH PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. VERY DRY AIR IN THE MID
LEVELS WILL RESULT IN LOTS OF SUNSHINE. SEABREEZES WILL QUICKLY
DEVELOP ON BOTH COASTS WITH COOLER TEMPS ESPECIALLY ACROSS E
COASTAL MA...BUT NOT MUCH COOLER CT VALLEY. TEMPS WILL REACH MID
TO UPPER 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST AND NEAR 90 CT VALLEY...BUT UPPER
70S ALONG IMMEDIATE COAST OF E MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSEASONABLY HOT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
* A BIT COOLER FRI INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL
* MAINLY DRY OTHER THEN PERHAPS A SPOT SHOWER/STORM THU

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
ANOMALOUS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA BY THE MID TO
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK LASTING INTO LABOR DAY. ONLY CAVEAT IS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY WHICH COULD BRING A FEW STORMS TO
THE REGION. THIS FRONT COULD ALSO COOL TEMPS DOWN ON FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH VERY LITTLE
APPRECIABLE RAIN.

DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUMMER RETURNS AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THIS PERIOD.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST OF THE WEEK AS THE
AXIS OF THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. 850MB TEMPS WILL BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL REACHING AROUND 18-20C. WHICH WILL LEAD TO HIGH TEMPS
IN THE U80S TO L90S...AND EVEN A FEW LOCATIONS REACHING THE MID 90S!
THIS COULD POTENTIAL LEAD TO THE CT RIVER VALLEY SEEING A 3 TO 4
DAYS HEAT WAVE...BEGINNING TODAY. OVERALL PRECIP CHANCES WILL LOW
DURING THE PERIOD THANKS TO THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE. HOWEVER
POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE MARITIMES WILL BRING A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT THROUGH ON THURSDAY. THIS COULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THANKS TO THE SOUPY AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A COOL DOWN IS ANTICIPATED ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE STABLE BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT. IN FACT HIGHS MAY STAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. THIS
WILL BE A WELCOME FEEL COMPARED TO THE LOW TO MID 90S POSSIBLE ON
THURSDAY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AGAIN VERY
LITTLE RAIN IS ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. EXCEPT PATCHY IFR
FOG LATE TONIGHT IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS. SEA BREEZES
LIKELY TUESDAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE LIKELY
TUESDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. COULD SEE VERY LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.PASSING FRONT MAY TRIGGER A SPOT SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO...BUT ODDS ARE AGAINST ANYTHING WIDESPREAD.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL RESULT IN SW GUSTS AROUND 20 KT
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS BUT THERE IS A LOW PROB OF SEAS BUILDING TO
5 FT OVER SOUTHERN WATERS LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. WINDS
SHIFT TO LIGHT NORTH LATE TONIGHT THEN BECOMING E/SE TUE AFTERNOON
WITH SUBSIDING SEAS.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD THROUGH THE PERIOD. NEAR SHORE WATERS MAY
GUSTS TO NEAR 15KTS EACH DAY. SCA ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH ON THURSDAY SWITCHING THE WESTERLY
WINDS TO THE EAST. OTHERWISE TRANQUIL BOATING WEATHER.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...KJC/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN
MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KOKX 311028
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
628 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE OTHERWISE STRENGTHENS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BKN MID AND UPPER LVL CLOUDS WITH SCT SPRINKLES WILL CONTINUE MVG EAST
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NJ...SOUTH OF THE AREA...ASSOCIATED
WITH AN APPROACHING WEAK UPSTREAM TROUGH.

RADIATIONAL PATCHY GROUND FOG CONTS TO DEVELOP WEST AND NORTH OF
NYC...INCLUDING INTERIOR SW CT. DESPITE FWN / SUSSEX CO NJ
REPORTING 1/2 MILE...MOST AREAS SHOULD EXPERIENCE VSBYS NO LOWER
THAN 2 MILES UNTIL ARND 13Z.

BACK DOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY. AS IT
APPROACHES...A SOUTHWEST GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THAT AND HIGH
PRES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. THIS INCREASED SW FLOW WILL RESULT IN
A WARM AND HUMID DAY AS SFC DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE MID AND UPPER
60S.

MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 FOR
MOST OF THE REGION...AND THE WARMEST TEMPS WILL OCCUR ACROSS NYC
AND URBANIZED PORTIONS OF NE NJ...WHERE HIGHS WILL TOP OFF IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S. FOR NYC...THE HEAT INDEX SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 95
TODAY.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. WITH
MINIMAL UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...NOT EXPECTING SHRA/TSRA...SO WILL
CARRY A DRY FORECAST. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...AND SFC DEWPOINTS WILL DROP A BIT...
GENERALLY FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S TO THE LOW TO MID 60S. WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS...SOME PATCHY FOG
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND
LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

HIGH PRES STRENGTHENS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. TEMPS DROP A BIT ON
TUESDAY AS COMPARED TO TODAY...BUT WILL STILL TOP OFF IN THE UPPER
80S TO AROUND 90 WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. BETTER
CHANCE FOR SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT AT THE COASTS ON TUESDAY AS SFC
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT DURING THE DAY. THE HEAT INDEX SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW 95 ON TUESDAY IN NYC.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE REPLACED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY
WILL CONTINUE AS AIR QUALITY DECREASES UNDER A STAGNANT DOME OF
HIGH PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE AT LEAST 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. ALTHO NOT IN THE LATEST FCST...CAN NOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED TSTM WED AFTN AND EVE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DAY TIME
THERMAL TROUGH.

DAY TIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S BOTH WED AND THU WITH HEAT
INDEX VALUES APPROACHING 95 DEGS ACROSS NYC AND URBAN NE NJ.

LATE THURSDAY-EARLY FRIDAY...A STRONGER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO PROVIDE SOME RELIEF INITIALLY IN THE FORM OF WIDELY SCT TSTMS
MAINLY THU AFTN - EVE. FCST A POP OF 20 PCT...WHICH MAY NEED TO BE
INCREASED IN LATER FORECASTS.

LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MARITIME POLAR AIR ON EAST WINDS REPLACES
THE MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP REGION WIDE...BUT ESPECIALLY
ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR THE TERMINALS TODAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS FROM THE NORTH AND EAST
TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

GENERALLY LIGHT SW OR VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH SUNRISE. W-WSW WINDS
AROUND 10 KT DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON...10
TO 15 KT. GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT FOR CITY TERMINALS. GUSTS END
AFTER SUNSET WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KT.

   ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST. SEA
BREEZE LIKELY STAYS SOUTH AND EAST OF TERMINAL...WITH LOW CHANCE
FOR IT TO MOVE THROUGH AFTER 19Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.
OCCASIONAL WIND GUST TO 20 KT POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES
PROBABLE EACH AFTERNOON.
.THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES PROBABLE.
.FRIDAY...VFR. ENE WINDS G15-20KT.

&&

.MARINE...
SW PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS TODAY BETWEEN AN APPROACHING BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT AND SFC HIGH PRES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC. WINDS AND SEAS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY/SCA LEVELS ON ALL
WATERS... BUT SEAS MAY BRIEFLY BUILD TO 5 FT ON THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN OCEAN WATERS THIS AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE...CONDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CONDS THROUGH THU.

LATE THU-THU NIGHT...WIDELY SCT TSTMS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

FRI...THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND
SEAS WILL OCCUR AS WINDS SHIFT FROM THE EAST AT 15-20 KT FOLLOWING
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT AS HIGH PRES MOVES EAST ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THU AFTN-EARLY FRI...WIDELY SCT TSTMS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH LESS THAN 1/4 INCH RAIN.

NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A RECENT FULL MOON...BRIEF MINOR INUNDATION IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE ACROSS THE TYPICALLY VULNERABLE
COASTAL LOCALES FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GC/MPS
NEAR TERM...GC/MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...GC
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...GC/MPS
HYDROLOGY...GC/MPS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KOKX 311028
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
628 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE OTHERWISE STRENGTHENS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BKN MID AND UPPER LVL CLOUDS WITH SCT SPRINKLES WILL CONTINUE MVG EAST
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NJ...SOUTH OF THE AREA...ASSOCIATED
WITH AN APPROACHING WEAK UPSTREAM TROUGH.

RADIATIONAL PATCHY GROUND FOG CONTS TO DEVELOP WEST AND NORTH OF
NYC...INCLUDING INTERIOR SW CT. DESPITE FWN / SUSSEX CO NJ
REPORTING 1/2 MILE...MOST AREAS SHOULD EXPERIENCE VSBYS NO LOWER
THAN 2 MILES UNTIL ARND 13Z.

BACK DOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY. AS IT
APPROACHES...A SOUTHWEST GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THAT AND HIGH
PRES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. THIS INCREASED SW FLOW WILL RESULT IN
A WARM AND HUMID DAY AS SFC DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE MID AND UPPER
60S.

MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 FOR
MOST OF THE REGION...AND THE WARMEST TEMPS WILL OCCUR ACROSS NYC
AND URBANIZED PORTIONS OF NE NJ...WHERE HIGHS WILL TOP OFF IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S. FOR NYC...THE HEAT INDEX SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 95
TODAY.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. WITH
MINIMAL UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...NOT EXPECTING SHRA/TSRA...SO WILL
CARRY A DRY FORECAST. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...AND SFC DEWPOINTS WILL DROP A BIT...
GENERALLY FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S TO THE LOW TO MID 60S. WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS...SOME PATCHY FOG
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND
LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

HIGH PRES STRENGTHENS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. TEMPS DROP A BIT ON
TUESDAY AS COMPARED TO TODAY...BUT WILL STILL TOP OFF IN THE UPPER
80S TO AROUND 90 WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. BETTER
CHANCE FOR SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT AT THE COASTS ON TUESDAY AS SFC
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT DURING THE DAY. THE HEAT INDEX SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW 95 ON TUESDAY IN NYC.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE REPLACED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY
WILL CONTINUE AS AIR QUALITY DECREASES UNDER A STAGNANT DOME OF
HIGH PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE AT LEAST 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. ALTHO NOT IN THE LATEST FCST...CAN NOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED TSTM WED AFTN AND EVE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DAY TIME
THERMAL TROUGH.

DAY TIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S BOTH WED AND THU WITH HEAT
INDEX VALUES APPROACHING 95 DEGS ACROSS NYC AND URBAN NE NJ.

LATE THURSDAY-EARLY FRIDAY...A STRONGER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO PROVIDE SOME RELIEF INITIALLY IN THE FORM OF WIDELY SCT TSTMS
MAINLY THU AFTN - EVE. FCST A POP OF 20 PCT...WHICH MAY NEED TO BE
INCREASED IN LATER FORECASTS.

LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MARITIME POLAR AIR ON EAST WINDS REPLACES
THE MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP REGION WIDE...BUT ESPECIALLY
ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR THE TERMINALS TODAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS FROM THE NORTH AND EAST
TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

GENERALLY LIGHT SW OR VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH SUNRISE. W-WSW WINDS
AROUND 10 KT DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON...10
TO 15 KT. GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT FOR CITY TERMINALS. GUSTS END
AFTER SUNSET WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KT.

   ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST. SEA
BREEZE LIKELY STAYS SOUTH AND EAST OF TERMINAL...WITH LOW CHANCE
FOR IT TO MOVE THROUGH AFTER 19Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.
OCCASIONAL WIND GUST TO 20 KT POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES
PROBABLE EACH AFTERNOON.
.THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES PROBABLE.
.FRIDAY...VFR. ENE WINDS G15-20KT.

&&

.MARINE...
SW PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS TODAY BETWEEN AN APPROACHING BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT AND SFC HIGH PRES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC. WINDS AND SEAS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY/SCA LEVELS ON ALL
WATERS... BUT SEAS MAY BRIEFLY BUILD TO 5 FT ON THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN OCEAN WATERS THIS AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE...CONDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CONDS THROUGH THU.

LATE THU-THU NIGHT...WIDELY SCT TSTMS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

FRI...THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND
SEAS WILL OCCUR AS WINDS SHIFT FROM THE EAST AT 15-20 KT FOLLOWING
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT AS HIGH PRES MOVES EAST ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THU AFTN-EARLY FRI...WIDELY SCT TSTMS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH LESS THAN 1/4 INCH RAIN.

NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A RECENT FULL MOON...BRIEF MINOR INUNDATION IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE ACROSS THE TYPICALLY VULNERABLE
COASTAL LOCALES FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GC/MPS
NEAR TERM...GC/MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...GC
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...GC/MPS
HYDROLOGY...GC/MPS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KOKX 311028
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
628 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE OTHERWISE STRENGTHENS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BKN MID AND UPPER LVL CLOUDS WITH SCT SPRINKLES WILL CONTINUE MVG EAST
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NJ...SOUTH OF THE AREA...ASSOCIATED
WITH AN APPROACHING WEAK UPSTREAM TROUGH.

RADIATIONAL PATCHY GROUND FOG CONTS TO DEVELOP WEST AND NORTH OF
NYC...INCLUDING INTERIOR SW CT. DESPITE FWN / SUSSEX CO NJ
REPORTING 1/2 MILE...MOST AREAS SHOULD EXPERIENCE VSBYS NO LOWER
THAN 2 MILES UNTIL ARND 13Z.

BACK DOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY. AS IT
APPROACHES...A SOUTHWEST GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THAT AND HIGH
PRES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. THIS INCREASED SW FLOW WILL RESULT IN
A WARM AND HUMID DAY AS SFC DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE MID AND UPPER
60S.

MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 FOR
MOST OF THE REGION...AND THE WARMEST TEMPS WILL OCCUR ACROSS NYC
AND URBANIZED PORTIONS OF NE NJ...WHERE HIGHS WILL TOP OFF IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S. FOR NYC...THE HEAT INDEX SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 95
TODAY.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. WITH
MINIMAL UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...NOT EXPECTING SHRA/TSRA...SO WILL
CARRY A DRY FORECAST. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...AND SFC DEWPOINTS WILL DROP A BIT...
GENERALLY FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S TO THE LOW TO MID 60S. WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS...SOME PATCHY FOG
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND
LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

HIGH PRES STRENGTHENS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. TEMPS DROP A BIT ON
TUESDAY AS COMPARED TO TODAY...BUT WILL STILL TOP OFF IN THE UPPER
80S TO AROUND 90 WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. BETTER
CHANCE FOR SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT AT THE COASTS ON TUESDAY AS SFC
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT DURING THE DAY. THE HEAT INDEX SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW 95 ON TUESDAY IN NYC.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE REPLACED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY
WILL CONTINUE AS AIR QUALITY DECREASES UNDER A STAGNANT DOME OF
HIGH PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE AT LEAST 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. ALTHO NOT IN THE LATEST FCST...CAN NOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED TSTM WED AFTN AND EVE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DAY TIME
THERMAL TROUGH.

DAY TIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S BOTH WED AND THU WITH HEAT
INDEX VALUES APPROACHING 95 DEGS ACROSS NYC AND URBAN NE NJ.

LATE THURSDAY-EARLY FRIDAY...A STRONGER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO PROVIDE SOME RELIEF INITIALLY IN THE FORM OF WIDELY SCT TSTMS
MAINLY THU AFTN - EVE. FCST A POP OF 20 PCT...WHICH MAY NEED TO BE
INCREASED IN LATER FORECASTS.

LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MARITIME POLAR AIR ON EAST WINDS REPLACES
THE MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP REGION WIDE...BUT ESPECIALLY
ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR THE TERMINALS TODAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS FROM THE NORTH AND EAST
TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

GENERALLY LIGHT SW OR VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH SUNRISE. W-WSW WINDS
AROUND 10 KT DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON...10
TO 15 KT. GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT FOR CITY TERMINALS. GUSTS END
AFTER SUNSET WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KT.

   ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST. SEA
BREEZE LIKELY STAYS SOUTH AND EAST OF TERMINAL...WITH LOW CHANCE
FOR IT TO MOVE THROUGH AFTER 19Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.
OCCASIONAL WIND GUST TO 20 KT POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES
PROBABLE EACH AFTERNOON.
.THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES PROBABLE.
.FRIDAY...VFR. ENE WINDS G15-20KT.

&&

.MARINE...
SW PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS TODAY BETWEEN AN APPROACHING BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT AND SFC HIGH PRES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC. WINDS AND SEAS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY/SCA LEVELS ON ALL
WATERS... BUT SEAS MAY BRIEFLY BUILD TO 5 FT ON THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN OCEAN WATERS THIS AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE...CONDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CONDS THROUGH THU.

LATE THU-THU NIGHT...WIDELY SCT TSTMS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

FRI...THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND
SEAS WILL OCCUR AS WINDS SHIFT FROM THE EAST AT 15-20 KT FOLLOWING
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT AS HIGH PRES MOVES EAST ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THU AFTN-EARLY FRI...WIDELY SCT TSTMS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH LESS THAN 1/4 INCH RAIN.

NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A RECENT FULL MOON...BRIEF MINOR INUNDATION IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE ACROSS THE TYPICALLY VULNERABLE
COASTAL LOCALES FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GC/MPS
NEAR TERM...GC/MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...GC
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...GC/MPS
HYDROLOGY...GC/MPS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KOKX 311028
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
628 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE OTHERWISE STRENGTHENS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BKN MID AND UPPER LVL CLOUDS WITH SCT SPRINKLES WILL CONTINUE MVG EAST
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NJ...SOUTH OF THE AREA...ASSOCIATED
WITH AN APPROACHING WEAK UPSTREAM TROUGH.

RADIATIONAL PATCHY GROUND FOG CONTS TO DEVELOP WEST AND NORTH OF
NYC...INCLUDING INTERIOR SW CT. DESPITE FWN / SUSSEX CO NJ
REPORTING 1/2 MILE...MOST AREAS SHOULD EXPERIENCE VSBYS NO LOWER
THAN 2 MILES UNTIL ARND 13Z.

BACK DOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY. AS IT
APPROACHES...A SOUTHWEST GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THAT AND HIGH
PRES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. THIS INCREASED SW FLOW WILL RESULT IN
A WARM AND HUMID DAY AS SFC DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE MID AND UPPER
60S.

MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 FOR
MOST OF THE REGION...AND THE WARMEST TEMPS WILL OCCUR ACROSS NYC
AND URBANIZED PORTIONS OF NE NJ...WHERE HIGHS WILL TOP OFF IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S. FOR NYC...THE HEAT INDEX SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 95
TODAY.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. WITH
MINIMAL UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...NOT EXPECTING SHRA/TSRA...SO WILL
CARRY A DRY FORECAST. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...AND SFC DEWPOINTS WILL DROP A BIT...
GENERALLY FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S TO THE LOW TO MID 60S. WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS...SOME PATCHY FOG
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND
LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

HIGH PRES STRENGTHENS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. TEMPS DROP A BIT ON
TUESDAY AS COMPARED TO TODAY...BUT WILL STILL TOP OFF IN THE UPPER
80S TO AROUND 90 WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. BETTER
CHANCE FOR SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT AT THE COASTS ON TUESDAY AS SFC
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT DURING THE DAY. THE HEAT INDEX SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW 95 ON TUESDAY IN NYC.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE REPLACED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY
WILL CONTINUE AS AIR QUALITY DECREASES UNDER A STAGNANT DOME OF
HIGH PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE AT LEAST 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. ALTHO NOT IN THE LATEST FCST...CAN NOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED TSTM WED AFTN AND EVE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DAY TIME
THERMAL TROUGH.

DAY TIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S BOTH WED AND THU WITH HEAT
INDEX VALUES APPROACHING 95 DEGS ACROSS NYC AND URBAN NE NJ.

LATE THURSDAY-EARLY FRIDAY...A STRONGER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO PROVIDE SOME RELIEF INITIALLY IN THE FORM OF WIDELY SCT TSTMS
MAINLY THU AFTN - EVE. FCST A POP OF 20 PCT...WHICH MAY NEED TO BE
INCREASED IN LATER FORECASTS.

LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MARITIME POLAR AIR ON EAST WINDS REPLACES
THE MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP REGION WIDE...BUT ESPECIALLY
ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR THE TERMINALS TODAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS FROM THE NORTH AND EAST
TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

GENERALLY LIGHT SW OR VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH SUNRISE. W-WSW WINDS
AROUND 10 KT DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON...10
TO 15 KT. GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT FOR CITY TERMINALS. GUSTS END
AFTER SUNSET WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KT.

   ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST. SEA
BREEZE LIKELY STAYS SOUTH AND EAST OF TERMINAL...WITH LOW CHANCE
FOR IT TO MOVE THROUGH AFTER 19Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.
OCCASIONAL WIND GUST TO 20 KT POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES
PROBABLE EACH AFTERNOON.
.THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES PROBABLE.
.FRIDAY...VFR. ENE WINDS G15-20KT.

&&

.MARINE...
SW PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS TODAY BETWEEN AN APPROACHING BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT AND SFC HIGH PRES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC. WINDS AND SEAS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY/SCA LEVELS ON ALL
WATERS... BUT SEAS MAY BRIEFLY BUILD TO 5 FT ON THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN OCEAN WATERS THIS AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE...CONDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CONDS THROUGH THU.

LATE THU-THU NIGHT...WIDELY SCT TSTMS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

FRI...THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND
SEAS WILL OCCUR AS WINDS SHIFT FROM THE EAST AT 15-20 KT FOLLOWING
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT AS HIGH PRES MOVES EAST ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THU AFTN-EARLY FRI...WIDELY SCT TSTMS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH LESS THAN 1/4 INCH RAIN.

NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A RECENT FULL MOON...BRIEF MINOR INUNDATION IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE ACROSS THE TYPICALLY VULNERABLE
COASTAL LOCALES FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GC/MPS
NEAR TERM...GC/MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...GC
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...GC/MPS
HYDROLOGY...GC/MPS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KALY 311015
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
615 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THIS WEEK WILL BE HOT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS
THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. HIGHS MAINLY IN 80S ARE
EXPECTED MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH SOME 90S ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH JUST
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 610 AM EDT...HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS...IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING
FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...AND ALSO SOUTH OF A WEAKENING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SETTLING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES.
ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE WAS TRANSLATING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
QUEBEC.

PATCHY FOG...SOME LOCALLY DENSE...HAS ALSO FORMED WITHIN SOME
VALLEY AREAS...PARTICULARLY WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND
EASTERN MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY...AS WELL AS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SW VT
AND WESTERN MA. THIS FOG AND LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BURN OFF BETWEEN 8
AND 10 AM.

WE EXPECT THE HIGH CLOUDS TO PERSIST ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS
THROUGH THIS MORNING...BEFORE THINNING FROM NW TO SE THIS
AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...PATCHY LOW/MID CLOUDS WILL OCCASIONALLY
PASS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY REGION
THIS MORNING.

THEN...FROM LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WE EXPECT
SKIES TO VARY FROM PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY...AS CU/STRATO-CU FORM.
THERE COULD BE A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE
EARLY AFTERNOON ONCE CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE REACHED...ESP ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. EVENTUALLY...AS DRIER AIR SEEPS SOUTHWARD...WE
EXPECT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF CLOUDS TO DECREASE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

SOME MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOP FROM THESE
CLOUDS...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STRONG CAPPING AND MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPING. SO...WILL KEEP OUT MENTION OF ANY SHOWERS
AT THIS TIME...BUT RADAR TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED...IN CASE
ANY OF THE BUILDING CU CAN GROW TALL ENOUGH AND PRODUCE ISOLATED
SHOWERS.

IT WILL BECOME BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON...AS 850-700 MB WINDS
STRENGTHEN BETWEEN AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND
A LOW LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR SOUTHEAST. AS MIXING DEEPENS BY THIS
AFTERNOON...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE
INTO THE 10-20 MPH RANGE...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING UP TO
25 MPH AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN THE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN MUCH OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY...PERHAPS NEARING 90 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
ASSUMING THE HIGH CLOUDS DEPART SOON ENOUGH. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT
MAINLY LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS...AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GENERALLY WARM WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THERE
COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING. MAX
TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID/UPPER 80S IN VALLEYS ON TUE...WITH
LOWER 80S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS...THEN SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER ON WED...REACHING AROUND 90 FOR VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 80S
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER/MID
60S...GIVING HEAT INDICES OF 85-90 TUE...AND 90-95 ON WED.
OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AS WELL AS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT
AND WESTERN MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. MUCH OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE VERY WARM TO HOT
WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION. ANY CONVECTION
THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY ISOLATED. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
PORTION OF THE FA THURSDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND TRAILING
COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA.

HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S...EXCEPT FOR
SOME UPPER 70S ACROSS TERRAIN ABOVE 2000 FEET. LOWS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITATION BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ONCE FOG BURNS OFF EARLY THIS MORNING...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE IN PLACE FOR ALL TAF SITES WITH SCT CIRRUS CLOUDS AROUND.
SOME SCT CU MAY DEVELOP BY AFTN...MAINLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.
SKIES WILL BECOME SKC THIS EVENING WITH FOG DEVELOPING AT
KGFL/KPSF AROUND 03Z AND BCMG IFR/LIFR BY 08Z. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME W AT 8-15 KTS TODAY AND THEN BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...

A WEAK TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL PRODUCE SOME
GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST. SPEEDS WILL
GENERALLY AVERAGE 10-20 MPH...BUT SOME GUSTS OF UP TO 25 MPH COULD
OCCUR...ESP IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL
REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET...BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY.

THE RH WILL FALL INTO THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN RECOVER TO 90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH WILL
FALL TO 40-5O PERCENT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THU AND
FRI...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOONS.

WIDESPREAD DEW FORMATION IS LIKELY TONIGHT...AND AGAIN TUE NT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED AUGUST 27
THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST 29, 30
AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY.
DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL
CLIMATE...IAA



000
FXUS61 KALY 311015
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
615 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THIS WEEK WILL BE HOT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS
THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. HIGHS MAINLY IN 80S ARE
EXPECTED MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH SOME 90S ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH JUST
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 610 AM EDT...HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS...IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING
FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...AND ALSO SOUTH OF A WEAKENING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SETTLING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES.
ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE WAS TRANSLATING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
QUEBEC.

PATCHY FOG...SOME LOCALLY DENSE...HAS ALSO FORMED WITHIN SOME
VALLEY AREAS...PARTICULARLY WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND
EASTERN MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY...AS WELL AS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SW VT
AND WESTERN MA. THIS FOG AND LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BURN OFF BETWEEN 8
AND 10 AM.

WE EXPECT THE HIGH CLOUDS TO PERSIST ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS
THROUGH THIS MORNING...BEFORE THINNING FROM NW TO SE THIS
AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...PATCHY LOW/MID CLOUDS WILL OCCASIONALLY
PASS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY REGION
THIS MORNING.

THEN...FROM LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WE EXPECT
SKIES TO VARY FROM PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY...AS CU/STRATO-CU FORM.
THERE COULD BE A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE
EARLY AFTERNOON ONCE CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE REACHED...ESP ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. EVENTUALLY...AS DRIER AIR SEEPS SOUTHWARD...WE
EXPECT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF CLOUDS TO DECREASE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

SOME MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOP FROM THESE
CLOUDS...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STRONG CAPPING AND MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPING. SO...WILL KEEP OUT MENTION OF ANY SHOWERS
AT THIS TIME...BUT RADAR TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED...IN CASE
ANY OF THE BUILDING CU CAN GROW TALL ENOUGH AND PRODUCE ISOLATED
SHOWERS.

IT WILL BECOME BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON...AS 850-700 MB WINDS
STRENGTHEN BETWEEN AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND
A LOW LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR SOUTHEAST. AS MIXING DEEPENS BY THIS
AFTERNOON...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE
INTO THE 10-20 MPH RANGE...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING UP TO
25 MPH AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN THE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN MUCH OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY...PERHAPS NEARING 90 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
ASSUMING THE HIGH CLOUDS DEPART SOON ENOUGH. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT
MAINLY LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS...AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GENERALLY WARM WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THERE
COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING. MAX
TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID/UPPER 80S IN VALLEYS ON TUE...WITH
LOWER 80S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS...THEN SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER ON WED...REACHING AROUND 90 FOR VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 80S
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER/MID
60S...GIVING HEAT INDICES OF 85-90 TUE...AND 90-95 ON WED.
OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AS WELL AS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT
AND WESTERN MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. MUCH OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE VERY WARM TO HOT
WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION. ANY CONVECTION
THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY ISOLATED. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
PORTION OF THE FA THURSDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND TRAILING
COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA.

HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S...EXCEPT FOR
SOME UPPER 70S ACROSS TERRAIN ABOVE 2000 FEET. LOWS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITATION BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ONCE FOG BURNS OFF EARLY THIS MORNING...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE IN PLACE FOR ALL TAF SITES WITH SCT CIRRUS CLOUDS AROUND.
SOME SCT CU MAY DEVELOP BY AFTN...MAINLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.
SKIES WILL BECOME SKC THIS EVENING WITH FOG DEVELOPING AT
KGFL/KPSF AROUND 03Z AND BCMG IFR/LIFR BY 08Z. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME W AT 8-15 KTS TODAY AND THEN BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...

A WEAK TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL PRODUCE SOME
GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST. SPEEDS WILL
GENERALLY AVERAGE 10-20 MPH...BUT SOME GUSTS OF UP TO 25 MPH COULD
OCCUR...ESP IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL
REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET...BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY.

THE RH WILL FALL INTO THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN RECOVER TO 90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH WILL
FALL TO 40-5O PERCENT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THU AND
FRI...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOONS.

WIDESPREAD DEW FORMATION IS LIKELY TONIGHT...AND AGAIN TUE NT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED AUGUST 27
THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST 29, 30
AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY.
DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL
CLIMATE...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 311003
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
603 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THIS WEEK WILL BE HOT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS
THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. HIGHS MAINLY IN 80S ARE
EXPECTED MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH SOME 90S ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH JUST
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 410 AM EDT...HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS...IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING
FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...AND ALSO SOUTH OF A WEAKENING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SETTLING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES.
ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE WAS TRANSLATING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
QUEBEC.

WE EXPECT THE HIGH CLOUDS TO PERSIST ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH
THIS MORNING...BEFORE THINNING FROM NW TO SE THIS AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE...PATCHY LOW CLOUDS WILL OCCASIONALLY PASS THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY REGION THIS MORNING.

THEN...FROM LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WE EXPECT
SKIES TO VARY FROM PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY...AS CU/STRATO-CU FORM.
THERE COULD BE A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE
EARLY AFTERNOON ONCE CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE REACHED...ESP ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. EVENTUALLY...AS DRIER AIR SEEPS SOUTHWARD...WE
EXPECT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF CLOUDS TO DECREASE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

SOME MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOP FROM THESE
CLOUDS...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STRONG CAPPING AND MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPING. SO...WILL KEEP OUT MENTION OF ANY SHOWERS
AT THIS TIME...BUT RADAR TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED...IN CASE
ANY OF THE BUILDING CU CAN GROW TALL ENOUGH AND PRODUCE ISOLATED
SHOWERS.

IT WILL BECOME BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON...AS 850-700 MB WINDS
STRENGTHEN BETWEEN AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND
A LOW LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR SOUTHEAST. AS MIXING DEEPENS BY THIS
AFTERNOON...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE
INTO THE 10-20 MPH RANGE...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING UP TO
25 MPH AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN THE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN MUCH OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY...PERHAPS NEARING 90 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
ASSUMING THE HIGH CLOUDS DEPART SOON ENOUGH. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT
MAINLY LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS...AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GENERALLY WARM WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THERE
COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING. MAX
TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID/UPPER 80S IN VALLEYS ON TUE...WITH
LOWER 80S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS...THEN SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER ON WED...REACHING AROUND 90 FOR VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 80S
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER/MID
60S...GIVING HEAT INDICES OF 85-90 TUE...AND 90-95 ON WED.
OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AS WELL AS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT
AND WESTERN MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. MUCH OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE VERY WARM TO HOT
WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION. ANY CONVECTION
THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY ISOLATED. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
PORTION OF THE FA THURSDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND TRAILING
COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA.

HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S...EXCEPT FOR
SOME UPPER 70S ACROSS TERRAIN ABOVE 2000 FEET. LOWS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITATION BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ONCE FOG BURNS OFF EARLY THIS MORNING...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE IN PLACE FOR ALL TAF SITES WITH SCT CIRRUS CLOUDS AROUND.
SOME SCT CU MAY DEVELOP BY AFTN...MAINLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.
SKIES WILL BECOME SKC THIS EVENING WITH FOG DEVELOPING AT
KGFL/KPSF AROUND 03Z AND BCMG IFR/LIFR BY 08Z. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME W AT 8-15 KTS TODAY AND THEN BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
     WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...

A WEAK TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL PRODUCE SOME
GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST. SPEEDS WILL
GENERALLY AVERAGE 10-20 MPH...BUT SOME GUSTS OF UP TO 25 COULD
OCCUR...ESP IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL
REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET...BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY.

THE RH WILL FALL INTO THE 45-55 PERCENT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN RECOVER TO 90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH WILL
FALL TO 40-5O PERCENT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THU AND
FRI...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOONS.

WIDESPREAD DEW FORMATION IS LIKELY TONIGHT...AND AGAIN TUE NT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED AUGUST 27
THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST 29, 30
AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY.
DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KALY 311003
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
603 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THIS WEEK WILL BE HOT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS
THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. HIGHS MAINLY IN 80S ARE
EXPECTED MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH SOME 90S ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH JUST
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 410 AM EDT...HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS...IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING
FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...AND ALSO SOUTH OF A WEAKENING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SETTLING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES.
ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE WAS TRANSLATING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
QUEBEC.

WE EXPECT THE HIGH CLOUDS TO PERSIST ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH
THIS MORNING...BEFORE THINNING FROM NW TO SE THIS AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE...PATCHY LOW CLOUDS WILL OCCASIONALLY PASS THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY REGION THIS MORNING.

THEN...FROM LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WE EXPECT
SKIES TO VARY FROM PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY...AS CU/STRATO-CU FORM.
THERE COULD BE A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE
EARLY AFTERNOON ONCE CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE REACHED...ESP ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. EVENTUALLY...AS DRIER AIR SEEPS SOUTHWARD...WE
EXPECT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF CLOUDS TO DECREASE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

SOME MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOP FROM THESE
CLOUDS...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STRONG CAPPING AND MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPING. SO...WILL KEEP OUT MENTION OF ANY SHOWERS
AT THIS TIME...BUT RADAR TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED...IN CASE
ANY OF THE BUILDING CU CAN GROW TALL ENOUGH AND PRODUCE ISOLATED
SHOWERS.

IT WILL BECOME BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON...AS 850-700 MB WINDS
STRENGTHEN BETWEEN AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND
A LOW LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR SOUTHEAST. AS MIXING DEEPENS BY THIS
AFTERNOON...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE
INTO THE 10-20 MPH RANGE...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING UP TO
25 MPH AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN THE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN MUCH OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY...PERHAPS NEARING 90 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
ASSUMING THE HIGH CLOUDS DEPART SOON ENOUGH. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT
MAINLY LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS...AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GENERALLY WARM WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THERE
COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING. MAX
TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID/UPPER 80S IN VALLEYS ON TUE...WITH
LOWER 80S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS...THEN SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER ON WED...REACHING AROUND 90 FOR VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 80S
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER/MID
60S...GIVING HEAT INDICES OF 85-90 TUE...AND 90-95 ON WED.
OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AS WELL AS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT
AND WESTERN MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. MUCH OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE VERY WARM TO HOT
WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION. ANY CONVECTION
THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY ISOLATED. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
PORTION OF THE FA THURSDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND TRAILING
COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA.

HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S...EXCEPT FOR
SOME UPPER 70S ACROSS TERRAIN ABOVE 2000 FEET. LOWS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITATION BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ONCE FOG BURNS OFF EARLY THIS MORNING...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE IN PLACE FOR ALL TAF SITES WITH SCT CIRRUS CLOUDS AROUND.
SOME SCT CU MAY DEVELOP BY AFTN...MAINLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.
SKIES WILL BECOME SKC THIS EVENING WITH FOG DEVELOPING AT
KGFL/KPSF AROUND 03Z AND BCMG IFR/LIFR BY 08Z. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME W AT 8-15 KTS TODAY AND THEN BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
     WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...

A WEAK TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL PRODUCE SOME
GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST. SPEEDS WILL
GENERALLY AVERAGE 10-20 MPH...BUT SOME GUSTS OF UP TO 25 COULD
OCCUR...ESP IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL
REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET...BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY.

THE RH WILL FALL INTO THE 45-55 PERCENT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN RECOVER TO 90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH WILL
FALL TO 40-5O PERCENT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THU AND
FRI...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOONS.

WIDESPREAD DEW FORMATION IS LIKELY TONIGHT...AND AGAIN TUE NT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED AUGUST 27
THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST 29, 30
AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY.
DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KALY 311003
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
603 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THIS WEEK WILL BE HOT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS
THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. HIGHS MAINLY IN 80S ARE
EXPECTED MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH SOME 90S ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH JUST
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 410 AM EDT...HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS...IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING
FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...AND ALSO SOUTH OF A WEAKENING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SETTLING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES.
ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE WAS TRANSLATING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
QUEBEC.

WE EXPECT THE HIGH CLOUDS TO PERSIST ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH
THIS MORNING...BEFORE THINNING FROM NW TO SE THIS AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE...PATCHY LOW CLOUDS WILL OCCASIONALLY PASS THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY REGION THIS MORNING.

THEN...FROM LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WE EXPECT
SKIES TO VARY FROM PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY...AS CU/STRATO-CU FORM.
THERE COULD BE A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE
EARLY AFTERNOON ONCE CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE REACHED...ESP ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. EVENTUALLY...AS DRIER AIR SEEPS SOUTHWARD...WE
EXPECT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF CLOUDS TO DECREASE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

SOME MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOP FROM THESE
CLOUDS...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STRONG CAPPING AND MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPING. SO...WILL KEEP OUT MENTION OF ANY SHOWERS
AT THIS TIME...BUT RADAR TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED...IN CASE
ANY OF THE BUILDING CU CAN GROW TALL ENOUGH AND PRODUCE ISOLATED
SHOWERS.

IT WILL BECOME BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON...AS 850-700 MB WINDS
STRENGTHEN BETWEEN AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND
A LOW LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR SOUTHEAST. AS MIXING DEEPENS BY THIS
AFTERNOON...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE
INTO THE 10-20 MPH RANGE...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING UP TO
25 MPH AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN THE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN MUCH OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY...PERHAPS NEARING 90 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
ASSUMING THE HIGH CLOUDS DEPART SOON ENOUGH. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT
MAINLY LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS...AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GENERALLY WARM WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THERE
COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING. MAX
TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID/UPPER 80S IN VALLEYS ON TUE...WITH
LOWER 80S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS...THEN SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER ON WED...REACHING AROUND 90 FOR VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 80S
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER/MID
60S...GIVING HEAT INDICES OF 85-90 TUE...AND 90-95 ON WED.
OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AS WELL AS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT
AND WESTERN MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. MUCH OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE VERY WARM TO HOT
WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION. ANY CONVECTION
THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY ISOLATED. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
PORTION OF THE FA THURSDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND TRAILING
COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA.

HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S...EXCEPT FOR
SOME UPPER 70S ACROSS TERRAIN ABOVE 2000 FEET. LOWS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITATION BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ONCE FOG BURNS OFF EARLY THIS MORNING...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE IN PLACE FOR ALL TAF SITES WITH SCT CIRRUS CLOUDS AROUND.
SOME SCT CU MAY DEVELOP BY AFTN...MAINLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.
SKIES WILL BECOME SKC THIS EVENING WITH FOG DEVELOPING AT
KGFL/KPSF AROUND 03Z AND BCMG IFR/LIFR BY 08Z. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME W AT 8-15 KTS TODAY AND THEN BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
     WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...

A WEAK TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL PRODUCE SOME
GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST. SPEEDS WILL
GENERALLY AVERAGE 10-20 MPH...BUT SOME GUSTS OF UP TO 25 COULD
OCCUR...ESP IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL
REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET...BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY.

THE RH WILL FALL INTO THE 45-55 PERCENT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN RECOVER TO 90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH WILL
FALL TO 40-5O PERCENT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THU AND
FRI...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOONS.

WIDESPREAD DEW FORMATION IS LIKELY TONIGHT...AND AGAIN TUE NT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED AUGUST 27
THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST 29, 30
AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY.
DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KALY 311003
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
603 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THIS WEEK WILL BE HOT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS
THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. HIGHS MAINLY IN 80S ARE
EXPECTED MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH SOME 90S ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH JUST
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 410 AM EDT...HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS...IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING
FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...AND ALSO SOUTH OF A WEAKENING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SETTLING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES.
ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE WAS TRANSLATING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
QUEBEC.

WE EXPECT THE HIGH CLOUDS TO PERSIST ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH
THIS MORNING...BEFORE THINNING FROM NW TO SE THIS AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE...PATCHY LOW CLOUDS WILL OCCASIONALLY PASS THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY REGION THIS MORNING.

THEN...FROM LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WE EXPECT
SKIES TO VARY FROM PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY...AS CU/STRATO-CU FORM.
THERE COULD BE A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE
EARLY AFTERNOON ONCE CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE REACHED...ESP ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. EVENTUALLY...AS DRIER AIR SEEPS SOUTHWARD...WE
EXPECT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF CLOUDS TO DECREASE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

SOME MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOP FROM THESE
CLOUDS...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STRONG CAPPING AND MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPING. SO...WILL KEEP OUT MENTION OF ANY SHOWERS
AT THIS TIME...BUT RADAR TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED...IN CASE
ANY OF THE BUILDING CU CAN GROW TALL ENOUGH AND PRODUCE ISOLATED
SHOWERS.

IT WILL BECOME BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON...AS 850-700 MB WINDS
STRENGTHEN BETWEEN AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND
A LOW LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR SOUTHEAST. AS MIXING DEEPENS BY THIS
AFTERNOON...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE
INTO THE 10-20 MPH RANGE...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING UP TO
25 MPH AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN THE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN MUCH OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY...PERHAPS NEARING 90 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
ASSUMING THE HIGH CLOUDS DEPART SOON ENOUGH. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT
MAINLY LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS...AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GENERALLY WARM WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THERE
COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING. MAX
TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID/UPPER 80S IN VALLEYS ON TUE...WITH
LOWER 80S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS...THEN SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER ON WED...REACHING AROUND 90 FOR VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 80S
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER/MID
60S...GIVING HEAT INDICES OF 85-90 TUE...AND 90-95 ON WED.
OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AS WELL AS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT
AND WESTERN MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. MUCH OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE VERY WARM TO HOT
WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION. ANY CONVECTION
THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY ISOLATED. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
PORTION OF THE FA THURSDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND TRAILING
COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA.

HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S...EXCEPT FOR
SOME UPPER 70S ACROSS TERRAIN ABOVE 2000 FEET. LOWS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITATION BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ONCE FOG BURNS OFF EARLY THIS MORNING...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE IN PLACE FOR ALL TAF SITES WITH SCT CIRRUS CLOUDS AROUND.
SOME SCT CU MAY DEVELOP BY AFTN...MAINLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.
SKIES WILL BECOME SKC THIS EVENING WITH FOG DEVELOPING AT
KGFL/KPSF AROUND 03Z AND BCMG IFR/LIFR BY 08Z. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME W AT 8-15 KTS TODAY AND THEN BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
     WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...

A WEAK TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL PRODUCE SOME
GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST. SPEEDS WILL
GENERALLY AVERAGE 10-20 MPH...BUT SOME GUSTS OF UP TO 25 COULD
OCCUR...ESP IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL
REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET...BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY.

THE RH WILL FALL INTO THE 45-55 PERCENT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN RECOVER TO 90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH WILL
FALL TO 40-5O PERCENT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THU AND
FRI...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOONS.

WIDESPREAD DEW FORMATION IS LIKELY TONIGHT...AND AGAIN TUE NT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED AUGUST 27
THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST 29, 30
AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY.
DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KOKX 310830
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
430 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATER TODAY AND PASSES THROUGH
THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OTHERWISE STRENGTHENS OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRES STRENGTHENS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. WEAK SHORTWAVE AND
SFC TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING...BUT NOT
EXPECTING ANY PRECIP WITH ITS PASSAGE. ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOPED
DURING THE OVERNIGHT TAPERED OFF...AND THIS SYSTEM SHOULD PASS
THROUGH THE REGION DRY. ANY PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE INTERIOR WILL
DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.

BACK DOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY. AS IT
APPROACHES...A SOUTHWEST GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THAT AND HIGH
PRES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. THIS INCREASED SW FLOW WILL RESULT IN
A WARM AND HUMID DAY AS SFC DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE MID AND UPPER
60S.

MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 FOR
MOST OF THE REGION...AND THE WARMEST TEMPS WILL OCCUR ACROSS NYC
AND URBANIZED PORTIONS OF NE NJ...WHERE HIGHS WILL TOP OFF IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S. FOR NYC...THE HEAT INDEX SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 95
TODAY.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. WITH
MINIMAL UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...NOT EXPECTING SHRA/TSRA...SO WILL
CARRY A DRY FORECAST. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...AND SFC DEWPOINTS WILL DROP A BIT...
GENERALLY FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S TO THE LOW TO MID 60S. WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS...SOME PATCHY FOG
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND
LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

HIGH PRES STRENGTHENS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. TEMPS DROP A BIT ON
TUESDAY AS COMPARED TO TODAY...BUT WILL STILL TOP OFF IN THE UPPER
80S TO AROUND 90 WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. BETTER
CHANCE FOR SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT AT THE COASTS ON TUESDAY AS SFC
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT DURING THE DAY. THE HEAT INDEX SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW 95 ON TUESDAY IN NYC.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE REPLACED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY
WILL CONTINUE AS AIR QUALITY DECREASES UNDER A STAGNANT DOME OF
HIGH PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE AT LEAST 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. ALTHO NOT IN THE LATEST FCST...CAN NOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED TSTM WED AFTN AND EVE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DAY TIME
THERMAL TROUGH.

DAY TIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S BOTH WED AND THU WITH HEAT
INDEX VALUES APPROACHING 95 DEGS ACROSS NYC AND URBAN NE NJ.

LATE THURSDAY-EARLY FRIDAY...A STRONGER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO PROVIDE SOME RELIEF INITIALLY IN THE FORM OF WIDELY SCT TSTMS
MAINLY THU AFTN - EVE. FCST A POP OF 20 PCT...WHICH MAY NEED TO BE
INCREASED IN LATER FORECASTS.

LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MARITIME POLAR AIR ON EAST WINDS REPLACES
THE MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP REGION WIDE...BUT ESPECIALLY
ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR THE TERMINALS TODAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS FROM THE NORTH AND EAST
TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

GENERALLY LIGHT SW OR VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH SUNRISE. W-WSW WINDS
AROUND 10 KT DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON...10
TO 15 KT. GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT FOR CITY TERMINALS. GUSTS END
AFTER SUNSET WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KT.

   ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST. SEA
BREEZE LIKELY STAYS SOUTH AND EAST OF TERMINAL...WITH LOW CHANCE
FOR IT TO MOVE THROUGH AFTER 19Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.
OCCASIONAL WIND GUST TO 20 KT POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES
PROBABLE EACH AFTERNOON.
.THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES PROBABLE.
.FRIDAY...VFR. ENE WINDS G15-20KT.

&&

.MARINE...
SW PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS TODAY BETWEEN AN APPROACHING BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT AND SFC HIGH PRES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC. WINDS AND SEAS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY/SCA LEVELS ON ALL
WATERS... BUT SEAS MAY BRIEFLY BUILD TO 5 FT ON THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN OCEAN WATERS THIS AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE...CONDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CONDS THROUGH THU.

LATE THU-THU NIGHT...WIDELY SCT TSTMS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

FRI...THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND
SEAS WILL OCCUR AS WINDS SHIFT FROM THE EAST AT 15-20 KT FOLLOWING
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT AS HIGH PRES MOVES EAST ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THU AFTN-EARLY FRI...WIDELY SCT TSTMS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH LESS THAN 1/4 INCH RAIN.

NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A RECENT FULL MOON...BRIEF MINOR INUNDATION IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE ACROSS THE TYPICALLY VULNERABLE
COASTAL LOCALES FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GC/MPS
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...GC
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...GC/MPS
HYDROLOGY...GC/MPS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KOKX 310830
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
430 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATER TODAY AND PASSES THROUGH
THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OTHERWISE STRENGTHENS OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRES STRENGTHENS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. WEAK SHORTWAVE AND
SFC TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING...BUT NOT
EXPECTING ANY PRECIP WITH ITS PASSAGE. ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOPED
DURING THE OVERNIGHT TAPERED OFF...AND THIS SYSTEM SHOULD PASS
THROUGH THE REGION DRY. ANY PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE INTERIOR WILL
DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.

BACK DOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY. AS IT
APPROACHES...A SOUTHWEST GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THAT AND HIGH
PRES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. THIS INCREASED SW FLOW WILL RESULT IN
A WARM AND HUMID DAY AS SFC DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE MID AND UPPER
60S.

MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 FOR
MOST OF THE REGION...AND THE WARMEST TEMPS WILL OCCUR ACROSS NYC
AND URBANIZED PORTIONS OF NE NJ...WHERE HIGHS WILL TOP OFF IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S. FOR NYC...THE HEAT INDEX SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 95
TODAY.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. WITH
MINIMAL UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...NOT EXPECTING SHRA/TSRA...SO WILL
CARRY A DRY FORECAST. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...AND SFC DEWPOINTS WILL DROP A BIT...
GENERALLY FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S TO THE LOW TO MID 60S. WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS...SOME PATCHY FOG
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND
LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

HIGH PRES STRENGTHENS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. TEMPS DROP A BIT ON
TUESDAY AS COMPARED TO TODAY...BUT WILL STILL TOP OFF IN THE UPPER
80S TO AROUND 90 WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. BETTER
CHANCE FOR SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT AT THE COASTS ON TUESDAY AS SFC
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT DURING THE DAY. THE HEAT INDEX SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW 95 ON TUESDAY IN NYC.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE REPLACED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY
WILL CONTINUE AS AIR QUALITY DECREASES UNDER A STAGNANT DOME OF
HIGH PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE AT LEAST 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. ALTHO NOT IN THE LATEST FCST...CAN NOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED TSTM WED AFTN AND EVE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DAY TIME
THERMAL TROUGH.

DAY TIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S BOTH WED AND THU WITH HEAT
INDEX VALUES APPROACHING 95 DEGS ACROSS NYC AND URBAN NE NJ.

LATE THURSDAY-EARLY FRIDAY...A STRONGER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO PROVIDE SOME RELIEF INITIALLY IN THE FORM OF WIDELY SCT TSTMS
MAINLY THU AFTN - EVE. FCST A POP OF 20 PCT...WHICH MAY NEED TO BE
INCREASED IN LATER FORECASTS.

LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MARITIME POLAR AIR ON EAST WINDS REPLACES
THE MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP REGION WIDE...BUT ESPECIALLY
ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR THE TERMINALS TODAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS FROM THE NORTH AND EAST
TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

GENERALLY LIGHT SW OR VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH SUNRISE. W-WSW WINDS
AROUND 10 KT DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON...10
TO 15 KT. GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT FOR CITY TERMINALS. GUSTS END
AFTER SUNSET WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KT.

   ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST. SEA
BREEZE LIKELY STAYS SOUTH AND EAST OF TERMINAL...WITH LOW CHANCE
FOR IT TO MOVE THROUGH AFTER 19Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.
OCCASIONAL WIND GUST TO 20 KT POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES
PROBABLE EACH AFTERNOON.
.THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES PROBABLE.
.FRIDAY...VFR. ENE WINDS G15-20KT.

&&

.MARINE...
SW PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS TODAY BETWEEN AN APPROACHING BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT AND SFC HIGH PRES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC. WINDS AND SEAS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY/SCA LEVELS ON ALL
WATERS... BUT SEAS MAY BRIEFLY BUILD TO 5 FT ON THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN OCEAN WATERS THIS AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE...CONDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CONDS THROUGH THU.

LATE THU-THU NIGHT...WIDELY SCT TSTMS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

FRI...THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND
SEAS WILL OCCUR AS WINDS SHIFT FROM THE EAST AT 15-20 KT FOLLOWING
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT AS HIGH PRES MOVES EAST ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THU AFTN-EARLY FRI...WIDELY SCT TSTMS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH LESS THAN 1/4 INCH RAIN.

NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A RECENT FULL MOON...BRIEF MINOR INUNDATION IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE ACROSS THE TYPICALLY VULNERABLE
COASTAL LOCALES FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GC/MPS
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...GC
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...GC/MPS
HYDROLOGY...GC/MPS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KALY 310817
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
417 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THIS WEEK WILL BE HOT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS
THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. HIGHS MAINLY IN 80S ARE
EXPECTED MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH SOME 90S ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH JUST
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 410 AM EDT...HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS...IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING
FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...AND ALSO SOUTH OF A WEAKENING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SETTLING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES.
ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE WAS TRANSLATING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
QUEBEC.

WE EXPECT THE HIGH CLOUDS TO PERSIST ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH
THIS MORNING...BEFORE THINNING FROM NW TO SE THIS AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE...PATCHY LOW CLOUDS WILL OCCASIONALLY PASS THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY REGION THIS MORNING.

THEN...FROM LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WE EXPECT
SKIES TO VARY FROM PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY...AS CU/STRATO-CU FORM.
THERE COULD BE A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE
EARLY AFTERNOON ONCE CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE REACHED...ESP ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. EVENTUALLY...AS DRIER AIR SEEPS SOUTHWARD...WE
EXPECT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF CLOUDS TO DECREASE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

SOME MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOP FROM THESE
CLOUDS...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STRONG CAPPING AND MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPING. SO...WILL KEEP OUT MENTION OF ANY SHOWERS
AT THIS TIME...BUT RADAR TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED...IN CASE
ANY OF THE BUILDING CU CAN GROW TALL ENOUGH AND PRODUCE ISOLATED
SHOWERS.

IT WILL BECOME BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON...AS 850-700 MB WINDS
STRENGTHEN BETWEEN AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND
A LOW LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR SOUTHEAST. AS MIXING DEEPENS BY THIS
AFTERNOON...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE
INTO THE 10-20 MPH RANGE...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING UP TO
25 MPH AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN THE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN MUCH OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY...PERHAPS NEARING 90 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
ASSUMING THE HIGH CLOUDS DEPART SOON ENOUGH. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT
MAINLY LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS...AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GENERALLY WARM WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THERE
COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING. MAX
TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID/UPPER 80S IN VALLEYS ON TUE...WITH
LOWER 80S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS...THEN SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER ON WED...REACHING AROUND 90 FOR VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 80S
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER/MID
60S...GIVING HEAT INDICES OF 85-90 TUE...AND 90-95 ON WED.
OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AS WELL AS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT
AND WESTERN MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. MUCH OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE VERY WARM TO HOT
WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION. ANY CONVECTION
THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY ISOLATED. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
PORTION OF THE FA THURSDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND TRAILING
COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA.

HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S...EXCEPT FOR
SOME UPPER 70S ACROSS TERRAIN ABOVE 2000 FEET. LOWS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITATION BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

CLOUDS WILL GENERALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES
AWAY FROM OUR REGION. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF IFR FOG
LATE TONIGHT AT KPSF/GFL...ALTHOUGH IT WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON
HOW QUICKLY THE CLOUDS DEPART. KALB/KPOU COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD
OF MVFR BR AROUND SUNRISE...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO
CONTINUE AT THESE SITES. WINDS WILL BE CALM OVERNIGHT. ANY FOG
LOOKS TO DISSIPATE BY AROUND 12Z.

DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR
ALL TAF SITES WITH SCT CIRRUS CLOUDS AROUND. SOME SCT CU MAY
DEVELOP BY AFTN...MAINLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. SKIES WILL BECOME
SKC THIS EVENING WITH FOG DEVELOPING AT KGFL/KPSF AROUND 03Z.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME W AT 8-15 KTS ON
MONDAY AND THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN MONDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

...WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...

A WEAK TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL PRODUCE SOME
GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST. SPEEDS WILL
GENERALLY AVERAGE 10-20 MPH...BUT SOME GUSTS OF UP TO 25 COULD
OCCUR...ESP IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL
REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET...BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY.

THE RH WILL FALL INTO THE 45-55 PERCENT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN RECOVER TO 90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH WILL
FALL TO 40-5O PERCENT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THU AND
FRI...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOONS.

WIDESPREAD DEW FORMATION IS LIKELY TONIGHT...AND AGAIN TUE NT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED AUGUST 27
THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST 29, 30
AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY.
DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...FRUGIS/11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL
CLIMATE...IAA



000
FXUS61 KALY 310817
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
417 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THIS WEEK WILL BE HOT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS
THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. HIGHS MAINLY IN 80S ARE
EXPECTED MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH SOME 90S ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH JUST
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 410 AM EDT...HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS...IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING
FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...AND ALSO SOUTH OF A WEAKENING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SETTLING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES.
ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE WAS TRANSLATING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
QUEBEC.

WE EXPECT THE HIGH CLOUDS TO PERSIST ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH
THIS MORNING...BEFORE THINNING FROM NW TO SE THIS AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE...PATCHY LOW CLOUDS WILL OCCASIONALLY PASS THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY REGION THIS MORNING.

THEN...FROM LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WE EXPECT
SKIES TO VARY FROM PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY...AS CU/STRATO-CU FORM.
THERE COULD BE A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE
EARLY AFTERNOON ONCE CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE REACHED...ESP ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. EVENTUALLY...AS DRIER AIR SEEPS SOUTHWARD...WE
EXPECT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF CLOUDS TO DECREASE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

SOME MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOP FROM THESE
CLOUDS...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STRONG CAPPING AND MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPING. SO...WILL KEEP OUT MENTION OF ANY SHOWERS
AT THIS TIME...BUT RADAR TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED...IN CASE
ANY OF THE BUILDING CU CAN GROW TALL ENOUGH AND PRODUCE ISOLATED
SHOWERS.

IT WILL BECOME BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON...AS 850-700 MB WINDS
STRENGTHEN BETWEEN AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND
A LOW LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR SOUTHEAST. AS MIXING DEEPENS BY THIS
AFTERNOON...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE
INTO THE 10-20 MPH RANGE...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING UP TO
25 MPH AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN THE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN MUCH OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY...PERHAPS NEARING 90 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
ASSUMING THE HIGH CLOUDS DEPART SOON ENOUGH. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT
MAINLY LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS...AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GENERALLY WARM WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THERE
COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING. MAX
TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID/UPPER 80S IN VALLEYS ON TUE...WITH
LOWER 80S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS...THEN SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER ON WED...REACHING AROUND 90 FOR VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 80S
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER/MID
60S...GIVING HEAT INDICES OF 85-90 TUE...AND 90-95 ON WED.
OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AS WELL AS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT
AND WESTERN MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. MUCH OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE VERY WARM TO HOT
WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION. ANY CONVECTION
THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY ISOLATED. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
PORTION OF THE FA THURSDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND TRAILING
COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA.

HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S...EXCEPT FOR
SOME UPPER 70S ACROSS TERRAIN ABOVE 2000 FEET. LOWS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITATION BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

CLOUDS WILL GENERALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES
AWAY FROM OUR REGION. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF IFR FOG
LATE TONIGHT AT KPSF/GFL...ALTHOUGH IT WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON
HOW QUICKLY THE CLOUDS DEPART. KALB/KPOU COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD
OF MVFR BR AROUND SUNRISE...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO
CONTINUE AT THESE SITES. WINDS WILL BE CALM OVERNIGHT. ANY FOG
LOOKS TO DISSIPATE BY AROUND 12Z.

DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR
ALL TAF SITES WITH SCT CIRRUS CLOUDS AROUND. SOME SCT CU MAY
DEVELOP BY AFTN...MAINLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. SKIES WILL BECOME
SKC THIS EVENING WITH FOG DEVELOPING AT KGFL/KPSF AROUND 03Z.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME W AT 8-15 KTS ON
MONDAY AND THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN MONDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

...WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...

A WEAK TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL PRODUCE SOME
GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST. SPEEDS WILL
GENERALLY AVERAGE 10-20 MPH...BUT SOME GUSTS OF UP TO 25 COULD
OCCUR...ESP IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL
REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET...BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY.

THE RH WILL FALL INTO THE 45-55 PERCENT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN RECOVER TO 90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH WILL
FALL TO 40-5O PERCENT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THU AND
FRI...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOONS.

WIDESPREAD DEW FORMATION IS LIKELY TONIGHT...AND AGAIN TUE NT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED AUGUST 27
THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST 29, 30
AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY.
DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...FRUGIS/11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL
CLIMATE...IAA



000
FXUS61 KALY 310817
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
417 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THIS WEEK WILL BE HOT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS
THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. HIGHS MAINLY IN 80S ARE
EXPECTED MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH SOME 90S ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH JUST
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 410 AM EDT...HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS...IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING
FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...AND ALSO SOUTH OF A WEAKENING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SETTLING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES.
ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE WAS TRANSLATING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
QUEBEC.

WE EXPECT THE HIGH CLOUDS TO PERSIST ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH
THIS MORNING...BEFORE THINNING FROM NW TO SE THIS AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE...PATCHY LOW CLOUDS WILL OCCASIONALLY PASS THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY REGION THIS MORNING.

THEN...FROM LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WE EXPECT
SKIES TO VARY FROM PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY...AS CU/STRATO-CU FORM.
THERE COULD BE A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE
EARLY AFTERNOON ONCE CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE REACHED...ESP ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. EVENTUALLY...AS DRIER AIR SEEPS SOUTHWARD...WE
EXPECT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF CLOUDS TO DECREASE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

SOME MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOP FROM THESE
CLOUDS...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STRONG CAPPING AND MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPING. SO...WILL KEEP OUT MENTION OF ANY SHOWERS
AT THIS TIME...BUT RADAR TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED...IN CASE
ANY OF THE BUILDING CU CAN GROW TALL ENOUGH AND PRODUCE ISOLATED
SHOWERS.

IT WILL BECOME BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON...AS 850-700 MB WINDS
STRENGTHEN BETWEEN AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND
A LOW LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR SOUTHEAST. AS MIXING DEEPENS BY THIS
AFTERNOON...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE
INTO THE 10-20 MPH RANGE...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING UP TO
25 MPH AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN THE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN MUCH OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY...PERHAPS NEARING 90 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
ASSUMING THE HIGH CLOUDS DEPART SOON ENOUGH. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT
MAINLY LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS...AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GENERALLY WARM WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THERE
COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING. MAX
TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID/UPPER 80S IN VALLEYS ON TUE...WITH
LOWER 80S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS...THEN SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER ON WED...REACHING AROUND 90 FOR VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 80S
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER/MID
60S...GIVING HEAT INDICES OF 85-90 TUE...AND 90-95 ON WED.
OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AS WELL AS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT
AND WESTERN MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. MUCH OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE VERY WARM TO HOT
WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION. ANY CONVECTION
THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY ISOLATED. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
PORTION OF THE FA THURSDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND TRAILING
COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA.

HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S...EXCEPT FOR
SOME UPPER 70S ACROSS TERRAIN ABOVE 2000 FEET. LOWS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITATION BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

CLOUDS WILL GENERALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES
AWAY FROM OUR REGION. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF IFR FOG
LATE TONIGHT AT KPSF/GFL...ALTHOUGH IT WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON
HOW QUICKLY THE CLOUDS DEPART. KALB/KPOU COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD
OF MVFR BR AROUND SUNRISE...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO
CONTINUE AT THESE SITES. WINDS WILL BE CALM OVERNIGHT. ANY FOG
LOOKS TO DISSIPATE BY AROUND 12Z.

DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR
ALL TAF SITES WITH SCT CIRRUS CLOUDS AROUND. SOME SCT CU MAY
DEVELOP BY AFTN...MAINLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. SKIES WILL BECOME
SKC THIS EVENING WITH FOG DEVELOPING AT KGFL/KPSF AROUND 03Z.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME W AT 8-15 KTS ON
MONDAY AND THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN MONDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

...WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...

A WEAK TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL PRODUCE SOME
GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST. SPEEDS WILL
GENERALLY AVERAGE 10-20 MPH...BUT SOME GUSTS OF UP TO 25 COULD
OCCUR...ESP IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL
REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET...BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY.

THE RH WILL FALL INTO THE 45-55 PERCENT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN RECOVER TO 90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH WILL
FALL TO 40-5O PERCENT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THU AND
FRI...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOONS.

WIDESPREAD DEW FORMATION IS LIKELY TONIGHT...AND AGAIN TUE NT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED AUGUST 27
THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST 29, 30
AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY.
DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...FRUGIS/11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL
CLIMATE...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 310817
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
417 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THIS WEEK WILL BE HOT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS
THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. HIGHS MAINLY IN 80S ARE
EXPECTED MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH SOME 90S ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH JUST
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 410 AM EDT...HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS...IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING
FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...AND ALSO SOUTH OF A WEAKENING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SETTLING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES.
ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE WAS TRANSLATING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
QUEBEC.

WE EXPECT THE HIGH CLOUDS TO PERSIST ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH
THIS MORNING...BEFORE THINNING FROM NW TO SE THIS AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE...PATCHY LOW CLOUDS WILL OCCASIONALLY PASS THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY REGION THIS MORNING.

THEN...FROM LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WE EXPECT
SKIES TO VARY FROM PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY...AS CU/STRATO-CU FORM.
THERE COULD BE A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE
EARLY AFTERNOON ONCE CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE REACHED...ESP ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. EVENTUALLY...AS DRIER AIR SEEPS SOUTHWARD...WE
EXPECT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF CLOUDS TO DECREASE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

SOME MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOP FROM THESE
CLOUDS...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STRONG CAPPING AND MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPING. SO...WILL KEEP OUT MENTION OF ANY SHOWERS
AT THIS TIME...BUT RADAR TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED...IN CASE
ANY OF THE BUILDING CU CAN GROW TALL ENOUGH AND PRODUCE ISOLATED
SHOWERS.

IT WILL BECOME BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON...AS 850-700 MB WINDS
STRENGTHEN BETWEEN AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND
A LOW LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR SOUTHEAST. AS MIXING DEEPENS BY THIS
AFTERNOON...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE
INTO THE 10-20 MPH RANGE...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING UP TO
25 MPH AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN THE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN MUCH OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY...PERHAPS NEARING 90 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
ASSUMING THE HIGH CLOUDS DEPART SOON ENOUGH. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT
MAINLY LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS...AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GENERALLY WARM WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THERE
COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING. MAX
TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID/UPPER 80S IN VALLEYS ON TUE...WITH
LOWER 80S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS...THEN SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER ON WED...REACHING AROUND 90 FOR VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 80S
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER/MID
60S...GIVING HEAT INDICES OF 85-90 TUE...AND 90-95 ON WED.
OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AS WELL AS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT
AND WESTERN MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. MUCH OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE VERY WARM TO HOT
WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION. ANY CONVECTION
THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY ISOLATED. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
PORTION OF THE FA THURSDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND TRAILING
COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA.

HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S...EXCEPT FOR
SOME UPPER 70S ACROSS TERRAIN ABOVE 2000 FEET. LOWS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITATION BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

CLOUDS WILL GENERALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES
AWAY FROM OUR REGION. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF IFR FOG
LATE TONIGHT AT KPSF/GFL...ALTHOUGH IT WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON
HOW QUICKLY THE CLOUDS DEPART. KALB/KPOU COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD
OF MVFR BR AROUND SUNRISE...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO
CONTINUE AT THESE SITES. WINDS WILL BE CALM OVERNIGHT. ANY FOG
LOOKS TO DISSIPATE BY AROUND 12Z.

DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR
ALL TAF SITES WITH SCT CIRRUS CLOUDS AROUND. SOME SCT CU MAY
DEVELOP BY AFTN...MAINLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. SKIES WILL BECOME
SKC THIS EVENING WITH FOG DEVELOPING AT KGFL/KPSF AROUND 03Z.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME W AT 8-15 KTS ON
MONDAY AND THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN MONDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

...WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...

A WEAK TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL PRODUCE SOME
GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST. SPEEDS WILL
GENERALLY AVERAGE 10-20 MPH...BUT SOME GUSTS OF UP TO 25 COULD
OCCUR...ESP IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL
REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET...BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY.

THE RH WILL FALL INTO THE 45-55 PERCENT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN RECOVER TO 90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH WILL
FALL TO 40-5O PERCENT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THU AND
FRI...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOONS.

WIDESPREAD DEW FORMATION IS LIKELY TONIGHT...AND AGAIN TUE NT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED AUGUST 27
THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST 29, 30
AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY.
DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...FRUGIS/11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL
CLIMATE...IAA




000
FXUS61 KBOX 310747
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
347 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS TODAY...THEN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL
BRING COOLER WEATHER TUESDAY MAINLY JUST TO EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND. UNSEASONABLY HOT WEATHER RETURNS TO MOST OF THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING
SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER FRIDAY INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER
CONTINUING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NOTING ISOLD SHOWERS S OF LONG ISLAND IN AXIS OF HIGHER KI
VALUES...BUT DRYING FROM THE NORTH WILL KEEP ANY SHOWERS EARLY
THIS MORNING SOUTH OF NEW ENG. OTHERWISE...MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING SUNSHINE TODAY
AS PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL DRYING MOVES S INTO SNE.

MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE MARITIMES WILL BRING A
COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO MAINE THIS AFTERNOON. GENERALLY W FLOW IN
SNE AHEAD OF THE FRONT COMBINED WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 17C WILL
RESULT IN A HOT DAY WITH TEMPS UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...A BIT COOLER HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S
COAST WHERE SW WINDS WILL DEVELOP. IT WILL BE MODERATELY HUMID
WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. WE WILL LIKELY GENERATE
500-1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE BUT VERY DRY MID LEVELS AND LOW KI VALUES
WILL RESULT IN A DRY DAY WITH NO CONVECTION EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL MOVE S INTO SNE LATE TONIGHT. MAIN
EFFECT WILL BE A WIND SHIFT TO LIGHT N WINDS AND DRYING IN THE
LOW LEVELS. NOTING KI VALUES CRASHING BELOW ZERO 06-12Z. DRY
CONDITIONS AND MOCLEAR SKIES EXPECTED. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN
IN NORMALLY PRONE LOCATIONS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70
DEGREES.

TUESDAY...
THE WEAK FRONT WILL LIKELY MIX OUT DURING THE DAY AS WEAK AREA OF
HIGH PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. VERY DRY AIR IN THE MID
LEVELS WILL RESULT IN LOTS OF SUNSHINE. SEABREEZES WILL QUICKLY
DEVELOP ON BOTH COASTS WITH COOLER TEMPS ESPECIALLY ACROSS E
COASTAL MA...BUT NOT MUCH COOLER CT VALLEY. TEMPS WILL REACH MID
TO UPPER 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST AND NEAR 90 CT VALLEY...BUT UPPER
70S ALONG IMMEDIATE COAST OF E MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSEASONABLY HOT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
* A BIT COOLER FRI INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL
* MAINLY DRY OTHER THEN PERHAPS A SPOT SHOWER/STORM THU

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
ANOMALOUS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA BY THE MID TO
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK LASTING INTO LABOR DAY. ONLY CAVEAT IS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY WHICH COULD BRING A FEW STORMS TO
THE REGION. THIS FRONT COULD ALSO COOL TEMPS DOWN ON FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH VERY LITTLE
APPRECIABLE RAIN.

DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUMMER RETURNS AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THIS PERIOD.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST OF THE WEEK AS THE
AXIS OF THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. 850MB TEMPS WILL BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL REACHING AROUND 18-20C. WHICH WILL LEAD TO HIGH TEMPS
IN THE U80S TO L90S...AND EVEN A FEW LOCATIONS REACHING THE MID 90S!
THIS COULD POTENTIAL LEAD TO THE CT RIVER VALLEY SEEING A 3 TO 4
DAYS HEAT WAVE...BEGINNING TODAY. OVERALL PRECIP CHANCES WILL LOW
DURING THE PERIOD THANKS TO THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE. HOWEVER
POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE MARITIMES WILL BRING A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT THROUGH ON THURSDAY. THIS COULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THANKS TO THE SOUPY AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A COOL DOWN IS ANTICIPATED ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE STABLE BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT. IN FACT HIGHS MAY STAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. THIS
WILL BE A WELCOME FEEL COMPARED TO THE LOW TO MID 90S POSSIBLE ON
THURSDAY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AGAIN VERY
LITTLE RAIN IS ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. EXCEPT PATCHY IFR
FOG EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT IN THE TYPICALLY
PRONE LOCATIONS. SEA BREEZES LIKELY TUESDAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE LIKELY
TUESDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. COULD SEE VERY LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.PASSING FRONT MAY TRIGGER A SPOT SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO...BUT ODDS ARE AGAINST ANYTHING WIDESPREAD.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL RESULT IN SW GUSTS AROUND 20 KT
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS BUT THERE IS A LOW PROB OF SEAS BUILDING TO
5 FT OVER SOUTHERN WATERS LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. WINDS
SHIFT TO LIGHT NORTH LATE TONIGHT THEN BECOMING E/SE TUE AFTERNOON
WITH SUBSIDING SEAS.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD THROUGH THE PERIOD. NEAR SHORE WATERS MAY
GUSTS TO NEAR 15KTS EACH DAY. SCA ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH ON THURSDAY SWITCHING THE WESTERLY
WINDS TO THE EAST. OTHERWISE TRANQUIL BOATING WEATHER.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN
MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 310747
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
347 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS TODAY...THEN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL
BRING COOLER WEATHER TUESDAY MAINLY JUST TO EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND. UNSEASONABLY HOT WEATHER RETURNS TO MOST OF THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING
SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER FRIDAY INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER
CONTINUING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NOTING ISOLD SHOWERS S OF LONG ISLAND IN AXIS OF HIGHER KI
VALUES...BUT DRYING FROM THE NORTH WILL KEEP ANY SHOWERS EARLY
THIS MORNING SOUTH OF NEW ENG. OTHERWISE...MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING SUNSHINE TODAY
AS PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL DRYING MOVES S INTO SNE.

MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE MARITIMES WILL BRING A
COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO MAINE THIS AFTERNOON. GENERALLY W FLOW IN
SNE AHEAD OF THE FRONT COMBINED WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 17C WILL
RESULT IN A HOT DAY WITH TEMPS UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...A BIT COOLER HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S
COAST WHERE SW WINDS WILL DEVELOP. IT WILL BE MODERATELY HUMID
WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. WE WILL LIKELY GENERATE
500-1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE BUT VERY DRY MID LEVELS AND LOW KI VALUES
WILL RESULT IN A DRY DAY WITH NO CONVECTION EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL MOVE S INTO SNE LATE TONIGHT. MAIN
EFFECT WILL BE A WIND SHIFT TO LIGHT N WINDS AND DRYING IN THE
LOW LEVELS. NOTING KI VALUES CRASHING BELOW ZERO 06-12Z. DRY
CONDITIONS AND MOCLEAR SKIES EXPECTED. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN
IN NORMALLY PRONE LOCATIONS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70
DEGREES.

TUESDAY...
THE WEAK FRONT WILL LIKELY MIX OUT DURING THE DAY AS WEAK AREA OF
HIGH PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. VERY DRY AIR IN THE MID
LEVELS WILL RESULT IN LOTS OF SUNSHINE. SEABREEZES WILL QUICKLY
DEVELOP ON BOTH COASTS WITH COOLER TEMPS ESPECIALLY ACROSS E
COASTAL MA...BUT NOT MUCH COOLER CT VALLEY. TEMPS WILL REACH MID
TO UPPER 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST AND NEAR 90 CT VALLEY...BUT UPPER
70S ALONG IMMEDIATE COAST OF E MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSEASONABLY HOT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
* A BIT COOLER FRI INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL
* MAINLY DRY OTHER THEN PERHAPS A SPOT SHOWER/STORM THU

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
ANOMALOUS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA BY THE MID TO
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK LASTING INTO LABOR DAY. ONLY CAVEAT IS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY WHICH COULD BRING A FEW STORMS TO
THE REGION. THIS FRONT COULD ALSO COOL TEMPS DOWN ON FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH VERY LITTLE
APPRECIABLE RAIN.

DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUMMER RETURNS AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THIS PERIOD.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST OF THE WEEK AS THE
AXIS OF THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. 850MB TEMPS WILL BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL REACHING AROUND 18-20C. WHICH WILL LEAD TO HIGH TEMPS
IN THE U80S TO L90S...AND EVEN A FEW LOCATIONS REACHING THE MID 90S!
THIS COULD POTENTIAL LEAD TO THE CT RIVER VALLEY SEEING A 3 TO 4
DAYS HEAT WAVE...BEGINNING TODAY. OVERALL PRECIP CHANCES WILL LOW
DURING THE PERIOD THANKS TO THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE. HOWEVER
POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE MARITIMES WILL BRING A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT THROUGH ON THURSDAY. THIS COULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THANKS TO THE SOUPY AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A COOL DOWN IS ANTICIPATED ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE STABLE BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT. IN FACT HIGHS MAY STAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. THIS
WILL BE A WELCOME FEEL COMPARED TO THE LOW TO MID 90S POSSIBLE ON
THURSDAY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AGAIN VERY
LITTLE RAIN IS ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. EXCEPT PATCHY IFR
FOG EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT IN THE TYPICALLY
PRONE LOCATIONS. SEA BREEZES LIKELY TUESDAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE LIKELY
TUESDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. COULD SEE VERY LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.PASSING FRONT MAY TRIGGER A SPOT SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO...BUT ODDS ARE AGAINST ANYTHING WIDESPREAD.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL RESULT IN SW GUSTS AROUND 20 KT
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS BUT THERE IS A LOW PROB OF SEAS BUILDING TO
5 FT OVER SOUTHERN WATERS LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. WINDS
SHIFT TO LIGHT NORTH LATE TONIGHT THEN BECOMING E/SE TUE AFTERNOON
WITH SUBSIDING SEAS.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD THROUGH THE PERIOD. NEAR SHORE WATERS MAY
GUSTS TO NEAR 15KTS EACH DAY. SCA ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH ON THURSDAY SWITCHING THE WESTERLY
WINDS TO THE EAST. OTHERWISE TRANQUIL BOATING WEATHER.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN
MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 310747
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
347 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS TODAY...THEN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL
BRING COOLER WEATHER TUESDAY MAINLY JUST TO EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND. UNSEASONABLY HOT WEATHER RETURNS TO MOST OF THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING
SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER FRIDAY INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER
CONTINUING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NOTING ISOLD SHOWERS S OF LONG ISLAND IN AXIS OF HIGHER KI
VALUES...BUT DRYING FROM THE NORTH WILL KEEP ANY SHOWERS EARLY
THIS MORNING SOUTH OF NEW ENG. OTHERWISE...MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING SUNSHINE TODAY
AS PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL DRYING MOVES S INTO SNE.

MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE MARITIMES WILL BRING A
COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO MAINE THIS AFTERNOON. GENERALLY W FLOW IN
SNE AHEAD OF THE FRONT COMBINED WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 17C WILL
RESULT IN A HOT DAY WITH TEMPS UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...A BIT COOLER HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S
COAST WHERE SW WINDS WILL DEVELOP. IT WILL BE MODERATELY HUMID
WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. WE WILL LIKELY GENERATE
500-1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE BUT VERY DRY MID LEVELS AND LOW KI VALUES
WILL RESULT IN A DRY DAY WITH NO CONVECTION EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL MOVE S INTO SNE LATE TONIGHT. MAIN
EFFECT WILL BE A WIND SHIFT TO LIGHT N WINDS AND DRYING IN THE
LOW LEVELS. NOTING KI VALUES CRASHING BELOW ZERO 06-12Z. DRY
CONDITIONS AND MOCLEAR SKIES EXPECTED. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN
IN NORMALLY PRONE LOCATIONS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70
DEGREES.

TUESDAY...
THE WEAK FRONT WILL LIKELY MIX OUT DURING THE DAY AS WEAK AREA OF
HIGH PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. VERY DRY AIR IN THE MID
LEVELS WILL RESULT IN LOTS OF SUNSHINE. SEABREEZES WILL QUICKLY
DEVELOP ON BOTH COASTS WITH COOLER TEMPS ESPECIALLY ACROSS E
COASTAL MA...BUT NOT MUCH COOLER CT VALLEY. TEMPS WILL REACH MID
TO UPPER 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST AND NEAR 90 CT VALLEY...BUT UPPER
70S ALONG IMMEDIATE COAST OF E MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSEASONABLY HOT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
* A BIT COOLER FRI INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL
* MAINLY DRY OTHER THEN PERHAPS A SPOT SHOWER/STORM THU

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
ANOMALOUS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA BY THE MID TO
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK LASTING INTO LABOR DAY. ONLY CAVEAT IS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY WHICH COULD BRING A FEW STORMS TO
THE REGION. THIS FRONT COULD ALSO COOL TEMPS DOWN ON FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH VERY LITTLE
APPRECIABLE RAIN.

DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUMMER RETURNS AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THIS PERIOD.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST OF THE WEEK AS THE
AXIS OF THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. 850MB TEMPS WILL BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL REACHING AROUND 18-20C. WHICH WILL LEAD TO HIGH TEMPS
IN THE U80S TO L90S...AND EVEN A FEW LOCATIONS REACHING THE MID 90S!
THIS COULD POTENTIAL LEAD TO THE CT RIVER VALLEY SEEING A 3 TO 4
DAYS HEAT WAVE...BEGINNING TODAY. OVERALL PRECIP CHANCES WILL LOW
DURING THE PERIOD THANKS TO THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE. HOWEVER
POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE MARITIMES WILL BRING A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT THROUGH ON THURSDAY. THIS COULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THANKS TO THE SOUPY AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A COOL DOWN IS ANTICIPATED ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE STABLE BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT. IN FACT HIGHS MAY STAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. THIS
WILL BE A WELCOME FEEL COMPARED TO THE LOW TO MID 90S POSSIBLE ON
THURSDAY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AGAIN VERY
LITTLE RAIN IS ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. EXCEPT PATCHY IFR
FOG EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT IN THE TYPICALLY
PRONE LOCATIONS. SEA BREEZES LIKELY TUESDAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE LIKELY
TUESDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. COULD SEE VERY LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.PASSING FRONT MAY TRIGGER A SPOT SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO...BUT ODDS ARE AGAINST ANYTHING WIDESPREAD.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL RESULT IN SW GUSTS AROUND 20 KT
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS BUT THERE IS A LOW PROB OF SEAS BUILDING TO
5 FT OVER SOUTHERN WATERS LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. WINDS
SHIFT TO LIGHT NORTH LATE TONIGHT THEN BECOMING E/SE TUE AFTERNOON
WITH SUBSIDING SEAS.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD THROUGH THE PERIOD. NEAR SHORE WATERS MAY
GUSTS TO NEAR 15KTS EACH DAY. SCA ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH ON THURSDAY SWITCHING THE WESTERLY
WINDS TO THE EAST. OTHERWISE TRANQUIL BOATING WEATHER.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN
MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 310747
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
347 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS TODAY...THEN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL
BRING COOLER WEATHER TUESDAY MAINLY JUST TO EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND. UNSEASONABLY HOT WEATHER RETURNS TO MOST OF THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING
SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER FRIDAY INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER
CONTINUING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NOTING ISOLD SHOWERS S OF LONG ISLAND IN AXIS OF HIGHER KI
VALUES...BUT DRYING FROM THE NORTH WILL KEEP ANY SHOWERS EARLY
THIS MORNING SOUTH OF NEW ENG. OTHERWISE...MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING SUNSHINE TODAY
AS PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL DRYING MOVES S INTO SNE.

MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE MARITIMES WILL BRING A
COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO MAINE THIS AFTERNOON. GENERALLY W FLOW IN
SNE AHEAD OF THE FRONT COMBINED WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 17C WILL
RESULT IN A HOT DAY WITH TEMPS UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...A BIT COOLER HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S
COAST WHERE SW WINDS WILL DEVELOP. IT WILL BE MODERATELY HUMID
WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. WE WILL LIKELY GENERATE
500-1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE BUT VERY DRY MID LEVELS AND LOW KI VALUES
WILL RESULT IN A DRY DAY WITH NO CONVECTION EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL MOVE S INTO SNE LATE TONIGHT. MAIN
EFFECT WILL BE A WIND SHIFT TO LIGHT N WINDS AND DRYING IN THE
LOW LEVELS. NOTING KI VALUES CRASHING BELOW ZERO 06-12Z. DRY
CONDITIONS AND MOCLEAR SKIES EXPECTED. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN
IN NORMALLY PRONE LOCATIONS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70
DEGREES.

TUESDAY...
THE WEAK FRONT WILL LIKELY MIX OUT DURING THE DAY AS WEAK AREA OF
HIGH PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. VERY DRY AIR IN THE MID
LEVELS WILL RESULT IN LOTS OF SUNSHINE. SEABREEZES WILL QUICKLY
DEVELOP ON BOTH COASTS WITH COOLER TEMPS ESPECIALLY ACROSS E
COASTAL MA...BUT NOT MUCH COOLER CT VALLEY. TEMPS WILL REACH MID
TO UPPER 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST AND NEAR 90 CT VALLEY...BUT UPPER
70S ALONG IMMEDIATE COAST OF E MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSEASONABLY HOT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
* A BIT COOLER FRI INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL
* MAINLY DRY OTHER THEN PERHAPS A SPOT SHOWER/STORM THU

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
ANOMALOUS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA BY THE MID TO
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK LASTING INTO LABOR DAY. ONLY CAVEAT IS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY WHICH COULD BRING A FEW STORMS TO
THE REGION. THIS FRONT COULD ALSO COOL TEMPS DOWN ON FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH VERY LITTLE
APPRECIABLE RAIN.

DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUMMER RETURNS AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THIS PERIOD.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST OF THE WEEK AS THE
AXIS OF THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. 850MB TEMPS WILL BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL REACHING AROUND 18-20C. WHICH WILL LEAD TO HIGH TEMPS
IN THE U80S TO L90S...AND EVEN A FEW LOCATIONS REACHING THE MID 90S!
THIS COULD POTENTIAL LEAD TO THE CT RIVER VALLEY SEEING A 3 TO 4
DAYS HEAT WAVE...BEGINNING TODAY. OVERALL PRECIP CHANCES WILL LOW
DURING THE PERIOD THANKS TO THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE. HOWEVER
POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE MARITIMES WILL BRING A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT THROUGH ON THURSDAY. THIS COULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THANKS TO THE SOUPY AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A COOL DOWN IS ANTICIPATED ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE STABLE BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT. IN FACT HIGHS MAY STAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. THIS
WILL BE A WELCOME FEEL COMPARED TO THE LOW TO MID 90S POSSIBLE ON
THURSDAY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AGAIN VERY
LITTLE RAIN IS ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. EXCEPT PATCHY IFR
FOG EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT IN THE TYPICALLY
PRONE LOCATIONS. SEA BREEZES LIKELY TUESDAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE LIKELY
TUESDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. COULD SEE VERY LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.PASSING FRONT MAY TRIGGER A SPOT SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO...BUT ODDS ARE AGAINST ANYTHING WIDESPREAD.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL RESULT IN SW GUSTS AROUND 20 KT
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS BUT THERE IS A LOW PROB OF SEAS BUILDING TO
5 FT OVER SOUTHERN WATERS LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. WINDS
SHIFT TO LIGHT NORTH LATE TONIGHT THEN BECOMING E/SE TUE AFTERNOON
WITH SUBSIDING SEAS.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD THROUGH THE PERIOD. NEAR SHORE WATERS MAY
GUSTS TO NEAR 15KTS EACH DAY. SCA ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH ON THURSDAY SWITCHING THE WESTERLY
WINDS TO THE EAST. OTHERWISE TRANQUIL BOATING WEATHER.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN
MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 310747
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
347 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS TODAY...THEN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL
BRING COOLER WEATHER TUESDAY MAINLY JUST TO EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND. UNSEASONABLY HOT WEATHER RETURNS TO MOST OF THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING
SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER FRIDAY INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER
CONTINUING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NOTING ISOLD SHOWERS S OF LONG ISLAND IN AXIS OF HIGHER KI
VALUES...BUT DRYING FROM THE NORTH WILL KEEP ANY SHOWERS EARLY
THIS MORNING SOUTH OF NEW ENG. OTHERWISE...MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING SUNSHINE TODAY
AS PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL DRYING MOVES S INTO SNE.

MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE MARITIMES WILL BRING A
COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO MAINE THIS AFTERNOON. GENERALLY W FLOW IN
SNE AHEAD OF THE FRONT COMBINED WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 17C WILL
RESULT IN A HOT DAY WITH TEMPS UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...A BIT COOLER HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S
COAST WHERE SW WINDS WILL DEVELOP. IT WILL BE MODERATELY HUMID
WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. WE WILL LIKELY GENERATE
500-1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE BUT VERY DRY MID LEVELS AND LOW KI VALUES
WILL RESULT IN A DRY DAY WITH NO CONVECTION EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL MOVE S INTO SNE LATE TONIGHT. MAIN
EFFECT WILL BE A WIND SHIFT TO LIGHT N WINDS AND DRYING IN THE
LOW LEVELS. NOTING KI VALUES CRASHING BELOW ZERO 06-12Z. DRY
CONDITIONS AND MOCLEAR SKIES EXPECTED. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN
IN NORMALLY PRONE LOCATIONS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70
DEGREES.

TUESDAY...
THE WEAK FRONT WILL LIKELY MIX OUT DURING THE DAY AS WEAK AREA OF
HIGH PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. VERY DRY AIR IN THE MID
LEVELS WILL RESULT IN LOTS OF SUNSHINE. SEABREEZES WILL QUICKLY
DEVELOP ON BOTH COASTS WITH COOLER TEMPS ESPECIALLY ACROSS E
COASTAL MA...BUT NOT MUCH COOLER CT VALLEY. TEMPS WILL REACH MID
TO UPPER 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST AND NEAR 90 CT VALLEY...BUT UPPER
70S ALONG IMMEDIATE COAST OF E MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSEASONABLY HOT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
* A BIT COOLER FRI INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL
* MAINLY DRY OTHER THEN PERHAPS A SPOT SHOWER/STORM THU

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
ANOMALOUS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA BY THE MID TO
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK LASTING INTO LABOR DAY. ONLY CAVEAT IS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY WHICH COULD BRING A FEW STORMS TO
THE REGION. THIS FRONT COULD ALSO COOL TEMPS DOWN ON FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH VERY LITTLE
APPRECIABLE RAIN.

DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUMMER RETURNS AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THIS PERIOD.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST OF THE WEEK AS THE
AXIS OF THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. 850MB TEMPS WILL BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL REACHING AROUND 18-20C. WHICH WILL LEAD TO HIGH TEMPS
IN THE U80S TO L90S...AND EVEN A FEW LOCATIONS REACHING THE MID 90S!
THIS COULD POTENTIAL LEAD TO THE CT RIVER VALLEY SEEING A 3 TO 4
DAYS HEAT WAVE...BEGINNING TODAY. OVERALL PRECIP CHANCES WILL LOW
DURING THE PERIOD THANKS TO THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE. HOWEVER
POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE MARITIMES WILL BRING A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT THROUGH ON THURSDAY. THIS COULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THANKS TO THE SOUPY AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A COOL DOWN IS ANTICIPATED ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE STABLE BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT. IN FACT HIGHS MAY STAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. THIS
WILL BE A WELCOME FEEL COMPARED TO THE LOW TO MID 90S POSSIBLE ON
THURSDAY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AGAIN VERY
LITTLE RAIN IS ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. EXCEPT PATCHY IFR
FOG EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT IN THE TYPICALLY
PRONE LOCATIONS. SEA BREEZES LIKELY TUESDAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE LIKELY
TUESDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. COULD SEE VERY LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.PASSING FRONT MAY TRIGGER A SPOT SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO...BUT ODDS ARE AGAINST ANYTHING WIDESPREAD.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL RESULT IN SW GUSTS AROUND 20 KT
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS BUT THERE IS A LOW PROB OF SEAS BUILDING TO
5 FT OVER SOUTHERN WATERS LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. WINDS
SHIFT TO LIGHT NORTH LATE TONIGHT THEN BECOMING E/SE TUE AFTERNOON
WITH SUBSIDING SEAS.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD THROUGH THE PERIOD. NEAR SHORE WATERS MAY
GUSTS TO NEAR 15KTS EACH DAY. SCA ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH ON THURSDAY SWITCHING THE WESTERLY
WINDS TO THE EAST. OTHERWISE TRANQUIL BOATING WEATHER.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN
MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 310747
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
347 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS TODAY...THEN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL
BRING COOLER WEATHER TUESDAY MAINLY JUST TO EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND. UNSEASONABLY HOT WEATHER RETURNS TO MOST OF THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING
SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER FRIDAY INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER
CONTINUING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NOTING ISOLD SHOWERS S OF LONG ISLAND IN AXIS OF HIGHER KI
VALUES...BUT DRYING FROM THE NORTH WILL KEEP ANY SHOWERS EARLY
THIS MORNING SOUTH OF NEW ENG. OTHERWISE...MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING SUNSHINE TODAY
AS PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL DRYING MOVES S INTO SNE.

MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE MARITIMES WILL BRING A
COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO MAINE THIS AFTERNOON. GENERALLY W FLOW IN
SNE AHEAD OF THE FRONT COMBINED WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 17C WILL
RESULT IN A HOT DAY WITH TEMPS UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...A BIT COOLER HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S
COAST WHERE SW WINDS WILL DEVELOP. IT WILL BE MODERATELY HUMID
WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. WE WILL LIKELY GENERATE
500-1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE BUT VERY DRY MID LEVELS AND LOW KI VALUES
WILL RESULT IN A DRY DAY WITH NO CONVECTION EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL MOVE S INTO SNE LATE TONIGHT. MAIN
EFFECT WILL BE A WIND SHIFT TO LIGHT N WINDS AND DRYING IN THE
LOW LEVELS. NOTING KI VALUES CRASHING BELOW ZERO 06-12Z. DRY
CONDITIONS AND MOCLEAR SKIES EXPECTED. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN
IN NORMALLY PRONE LOCATIONS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70
DEGREES.

TUESDAY...
THE WEAK FRONT WILL LIKELY MIX OUT DURING THE DAY AS WEAK AREA OF
HIGH PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. VERY DRY AIR IN THE MID
LEVELS WILL RESULT IN LOTS OF SUNSHINE. SEABREEZES WILL QUICKLY
DEVELOP ON BOTH COASTS WITH COOLER TEMPS ESPECIALLY ACROSS E
COASTAL MA...BUT NOT MUCH COOLER CT VALLEY. TEMPS WILL REACH MID
TO UPPER 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST AND NEAR 90 CT VALLEY...BUT UPPER
70S ALONG IMMEDIATE COAST OF E MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSEASONABLY HOT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
* A BIT COOLER FRI INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL
* MAINLY DRY OTHER THEN PERHAPS A SPOT SHOWER/STORM THU

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
ANOMALOUS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA BY THE MID TO
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK LASTING INTO LABOR DAY. ONLY CAVEAT IS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY WHICH COULD BRING A FEW STORMS TO
THE REGION. THIS FRONT COULD ALSO COOL TEMPS DOWN ON FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH VERY LITTLE
APPRECIABLE RAIN.

DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUMMER RETURNS AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THIS PERIOD.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST OF THE WEEK AS THE
AXIS OF THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. 850MB TEMPS WILL BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL REACHING AROUND 18-20C. WHICH WILL LEAD TO HIGH TEMPS
IN THE U80S TO L90S...AND EVEN A FEW LOCATIONS REACHING THE MID 90S!
THIS COULD POTENTIAL LEAD TO THE CT RIVER VALLEY SEEING A 3 TO 4
DAYS HEAT WAVE...BEGINNING TODAY. OVERALL PRECIP CHANCES WILL LOW
DURING THE PERIOD THANKS TO THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE. HOWEVER
POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE MARITIMES WILL BRING A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT THROUGH ON THURSDAY. THIS COULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THANKS TO THE SOUPY AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A COOL DOWN IS ANTICIPATED ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE STABLE BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT. IN FACT HIGHS MAY STAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. THIS
WILL BE A WELCOME FEEL COMPARED TO THE LOW TO MID 90S POSSIBLE ON
THURSDAY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AGAIN VERY
LITTLE RAIN IS ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. EXCEPT PATCHY IFR
FOG EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT IN THE TYPICALLY
PRONE LOCATIONS. SEA BREEZES LIKELY TUESDAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE LIKELY
TUESDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. COULD SEE VERY LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.PASSING FRONT MAY TRIGGER A SPOT SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO...BUT ODDS ARE AGAINST ANYTHING WIDESPREAD.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL RESULT IN SW GUSTS AROUND 20 KT
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS BUT THERE IS A LOW PROB OF SEAS BUILDING TO
5 FT OVER SOUTHERN WATERS LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. WINDS
SHIFT TO LIGHT NORTH LATE TONIGHT THEN BECOMING E/SE TUE AFTERNOON
WITH SUBSIDING SEAS.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD THROUGH THE PERIOD. NEAR SHORE WATERS MAY
GUSTS TO NEAR 15KTS EACH DAY. SCA ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH ON THURSDAY SWITCHING THE WESTERLY
WINDS TO THE EAST. OTHERWISE TRANQUIL BOATING WEATHER.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN
MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KOKX 310738
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
338 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATER TODAY AND PASSES THROUGH
THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OTHERWISE STRENGTHENS OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRES STRENGTHENS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. WEAK SHORTWAVE AND
SFC TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING...BUT NOT
EXPECTING ANY PRECIP WITH ITS PASSAGE. ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOPED
DURING THE OVERNIGHT TAPERED OFF...AND THIS SYSTEM SHOULD PASS
THROUGH THE REGION DRY. ANY PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE INTERIOR WILL
DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.

BACK DOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY. AS IT
APPROACHES...A SOUTHWEST GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THAT AND HIGH
PRES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. THIS INCREASED SW FLOW WILL RESULT IN
A WARM AND HUMID DAY AS SFC DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE MID AND UPPER
60S.

MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 FOR
MOST OF THE REGION...AND THE WARMEST TEMPS WILL OCCUR ACROSS NYC
AND URBANIZED PORTIONS OF NE NJ...WHERE HIGHS WILL TOP OFF IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S. FOR NYC...THE HEAT INDEX SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 95
TODAY.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. WITH
MINIMAL UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...NOT EXPECTING SHRA/TSRA...SO WILL
CARRY A DRY FORECAST. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...AND SFC DEWPOINTS WILL DROP A BIT...
GENERALLY FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S TO THE LOW TO MID 60S. WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS...SOME PATCHY FOG
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND
LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

HIGH PRES STRENGTHENS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. TEMPS DROP A BIT ON
TUESDAY AS COMPARED TO TODAY...BUT WILL STILL TOP OFF IN THE UPPER
80S TO AROUND 90 WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. BETTER
CHANCE FOR SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT AT THE COASTS ON TUESDAY AS SFC
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT DURING THE DAY. THE HEAT INDEX SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW 95 ON TUESDAY IN NYC.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE REPLACED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY
WILL CONTINUE AS AIR QUALITY DECREASES UNDER A STAGNANT DOME OF
HIGH PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE AT LEAST 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. ALTHO NOT IN THE LATEST FCST...CAN NOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED TSTM WED AFTN AND EVE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DAY TIME
THERMAL TROUGH.

DAY TIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S BOTH WED AND THU WITH HEAT
INDEX VALUES APPROACHING 95 DEGS ACROSS NYC AND URBAN NE NJ.

LATE THURSDAY-EARLY FRIDAY...A STRONGER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO PROVIDE SOME RELIEF INITIALLY IN THE FORM OF WIDELY SCT TSTMS
MAINLY THU AFTN - EVE. FCST A POP OF 20 PCT...WHICH MAY NEED TO BE
INCREASED IN LATER FORECASTS.

LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MARITIME POLAR AIR ON EAST WINDS REPLACES
THE MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP REGION WIDE...BUT ESPECIALLY
ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND THEN REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. AN ISOLATED SHOWER MAINLY
WEST OF NYC TERMINALS CANNOT BE RULED OUT BEFORE DAY BREAK.

LIGHT SW OR VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH SUNRISE. W-WSW WINDS AROUND 10
KT DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
WIND SPEEDS SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON...10 TO 15 KT.
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT FOR CITY TERMINALS. GUSTS END AFTER SUNSET
WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR. AFTERNOON SEABREEZES PROBABLE
EACH AFTERNOON.
.THURSDAY...MOST LIKELY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. AFTERNOON SEABREEZES PROBABLE.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.FRIDAY...MOST LIKELY VFR. E WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE. ISOLATED-
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SW PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS TODAY BETWEEN AN APPROACHING BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT AND SFC HIGH PRES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC. WINDS AND SEAS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY/SCA LEVELS ON ALL
WATERS... BUT SEAS MAY BRIEFLY BUILD TO 5 FT ON THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN OCEAN WATERS THIS AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE...CONDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CONDS THROUGH THU.

LATE THU-THU NIGHT...WIDELY SCT TSTMS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

FRI...THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND
SEAS WILL OCCUR AS WINDS SHIFT FROM THE EAST AT 15-20 KT FOLLOWING
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT AS HIGH PRES MOVES EAST ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THU AFTN-EARLY FRI...WIDELY SCT TSTMS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH LESS THAN 1/4 INCH RAIN.

NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A RECENT FULL MOON...BRIEF MINOR INUNDATION IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE ACROSS THE TYPICALLY VULNERABLE
COASTAL LOCALES FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GC/MPS
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...GC
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...GC/MPS
HYDROLOGY...GC/MPS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KOKX 310738
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
338 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATER TODAY AND PASSES THROUGH
THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OTHERWISE STRENGTHENS OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRES STRENGTHENS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. WEAK SHORTWAVE AND
SFC TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING...BUT NOT
EXPECTING ANY PRECIP WITH ITS PASSAGE. ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOPED
DURING THE OVERNIGHT TAPERED OFF...AND THIS SYSTEM SHOULD PASS
THROUGH THE REGION DRY. ANY PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE INTERIOR WILL
DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.

BACK DOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY. AS IT
APPROACHES...A SOUTHWEST GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THAT AND HIGH
PRES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. THIS INCREASED SW FLOW WILL RESULT IN
A WARM AND HUMID DAY AS SFC DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE MID AND UPPER
60S.

MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 FOR
MOST OF THE REGION...AND THE WARMEST TEMPS WILL OCCUR ACROSS NYC
AND URBANIZED PORTIONS OF NE NJ...WHERE HIGHS WILL TOP OFF IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S. FOR NYC...THE HEAT INDEX SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 95
TODAY.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. WITH
MINIMAL UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...NOT EXPECTING SHRA/TSRA...SO WILL
CARRY A DRY FORECAST. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...AND SFC DEWPOINTS WILL DROP A BIT...
GENERALLY FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S TO THE LOW TO MID 60S. WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS...SOME PATCHY FOG
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND
LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

HIGH PRES STRENGTHENS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. TEMPS DROP A BIT ON
TUESDAY AS COMPARED TO TODAY...BUT WILL STILL TOP OFF IN THE UPPER
80S TO AROUND 90 WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. BETTER
CHANCE FOR SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT AT THE COASTS ON TUESDAY AS SFC
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT DURING THE DAY. THE HEAT INDEX SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW 95 ON TUESDAY IN NYC.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE REPLACED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY
WILL CONTINUE AS AIR QUALITY DECREASES UNDER A STAGNANT DOME OF
HIGH PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE AT LEAST 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. ALTHO NOT IN THE LATEST FCST...CAN NOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED TSTM WED AFTN AND EVE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DAY TIME
THERMAL TROUGH.

DAY TIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S BOTH WED AND THU WITH HEAT
INDEX VALUES APPROACHING 95 DEGS ACROSS NYC AND URBAN NE NJ.

LATE THURSDAY-EARLY FRIDAY...A STRONGER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO PROVIDE SOME RELIEF INITIALLY IN THE FORM OF WIDELY SCT TSTMS
MAINLY THU AFTN - EVE. FCST A POP OF 20 PCT...WHICH MAY NEED TO BE
INCREASED IN LATER FORECASTS.

LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MARITIME POLAR AIR ON EAST WINDS REPLACES
THE MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP REGION WIDE...BUT ESPECIALLY
ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND THEN REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. AN ISOLATED SHOWER MAINLY
WEST OF NYC TERMINALS CANNOT BE RULED OUT BEFORE DAY BREAK.

LIGHT SW OR VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH SUNRISE. W-WSW WINDS AROUND 10
KT DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
WIND SPEEDS SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON...10 TO 15 KT.
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT FOR CITY TERMINALS. GUSTS END AFTER SUNSET
WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR. AFTERNOON SEABREEZES PROBABLE
EACH AFTERNOON.
.THURSDAY...MOST LIKELY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. AFTERNOON SEABREEZES PROBABLE.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.FRIDAY...MOST LIKELY VFR. E WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE. ISOLATED-
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SW PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS TODAY BETWEEN AN APPROACHING BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT AND SFC HIGH PRES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC. WINDS AND SEAS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY/SCA LEVELS ON ALL
WATERS... BUT SEAS MAY BRIEFLY BUILD TO 5 FT ON THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN OCEAN WATERS THIS AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE...CONDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CONDS THROUGH THU.

LATE THU-THU NIGHT...WIDELY SCT TSTMS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

FRI...THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND
SEAS WILL OCCUR AS WINDS SHIFT FROM THE EAST AT 15-20 KT FOLLOWING
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT AS HIGH PRES MOVES EAST ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THU AFTN-EARLY FRI...WIDELY SCT TSTMS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH LESS THAN 1/4 INCH RAIN.

NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A RECENT FULL MOON...BRIEF MINOR INUNDATION IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE ACROSS THE TYPICALLY VULNERABLE
COASTAL LOCALES FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GC/MPS
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...GC
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...GC/MPS
HYDROLOGY...GC/MPS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KBOX 310707
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
307 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS TODAY...THEN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL
BRING COOLER WEATHER TUESDAY MAINLY JUST TO EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND. UNSEASONABLY HOT WEATHER RETURNS TO MOST OF THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING
SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER FRIDAY INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER
CONTINUING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
NOTING ISOLD SHOWERS S OF LONG ISLAND IN AXIS OF HIGHER KI
VALUES...BUT DRYING FROM THE NORTH WILL KEEP ANY SHOWERS EARLY
THIS MORNING SOUTH OF NEW ENG. OTHERWISE...MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING SUNSHINE TODAY
AS PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL DRYING MOVES S INTO SNE.

MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE MARITIMES WILL BRING A
COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO MAINE THIS AFTERNOON. GENERALLY W FLOW IN
SNE AHEAD OF THE FRONT COMBINED WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 17C WILL
RESULT IN A HOT DAY WITH TEMPS UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...A BIT COOLER HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S
COAST WHERE SW WINDS WILL DEVELOP. IT WILL BE MODERATELY HUMID
WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. WE WILL LIKELY GENERATE
500-1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE BUT VERY DRY MID LEVELS AND LOW KI VALUES
WILL RESULT IN A DRY DAY WITH NO CONVECTION EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL MOVE S INTO SNE LATE TONIGHT. MAIN
EFFECT WILL BE A WIND SHIFT TO LIGHT N WINDS AND DRYING IN THE
LOW LEVELS. NOTING KI VALUES CRASHING BELOW ZERO 06-12Z. DRY
CONDITIONS AND MOCLEAR SKIES EXPECTED. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN
IN NORMALLY PRONE LOCATIONS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70
DEGREES.

TUESDAY...
THE WEAK FRONT WILL LIKELY MIX OUT DURING THE DAY AS WEAK AREA OF
HIGH PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. VERY DRY AIR IN THE MID
LEVELS WILL RESULT IN LOTS OF SUNSHINE. SEABREEZES WILL QUICKLY
DEVELOP ON BOTH COASTS WITH COOLER TEMPS ESPECIALLY ACROSS E
COASTAL MA...BUT NOT MUCH COOLER CT VALLEY. TEMPS WILL REACH MID
TO UPPER 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST AND NEAR 90 CT VALLEY...BUT UPPER
70S ALONG IMMEDIATE COAST OF E MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* VERY WARM ON TUESDAY EXCEPT COOLER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND COAST
* UNSEASONABLY HOT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
* A BIT COOLER FRI INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL
* MAINLY DRY OTHER THEN PERHAPS A SPOT SHOWER/STORM THU

DETAILS...

ALL MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER RIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.  THIS
MEANS ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER.  WE MAY SEE ENOUGH FORCING TO SPARK A FEW SPOT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SOMETIME THU INTO THU EVENING WITH A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT.  HOWEVER...ODDS ARE AGAINST ANY WIDESPREAD MEANINGFUL
RAINFALL GIVEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING...SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE SLIGHT
CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW.

THE EXCEPTION FROM THE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL BE TUESDAY
ACROSS COASTAL NEW ENGLAND...WHEN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT KEEPS HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S.  HOWEVER...THE LOWER CT
RIVER VALLEY SHOULD STILL SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S ON TUE AND ITS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOMEONE TOUCHES 90.

THE HOTTEST WEATHER LOOK TO BE WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO THURSDAY
WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 18C.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S AND LOWER 90S AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW LOCATIONS
HIT THE MIDDLE 90S.

ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL COOL TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES FRI
INTO SAT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.  HOWEVER...STILL
EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL RIGHT THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND GIVEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN CONTROL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. EXCEPT PATCHY IFR
FOG EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT IN THE TYPICALLY
PRONE LOCATIONS. SEA BREEZES LIKELY TUESDAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE LIKELY
TUESDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD OTHER THAN VERY LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.  A SPOT
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE THU/THU EVENING...BUT
ODDS ARE AGAINST ANYTHING WIDESPREAD.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL RESULT IN SW GUSTS AROUND 20 KT
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS BUT THERE IS A LOW PROB OF SEAS BUILDING TO
5 FT OVER SOUTHERN WATERS LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. WINDS
SHIFT TO LIGHT NORTH LATE TONIGHT THEN BECOMING E/SE TUE AFTERNOON
WITH SUBSIDING SEAS.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  VISIBILITY SHOULD BE
GOOD AS WELL...SO NICE BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TUE AND AGAIN SOMETIME THU INTO FRI WILL SHIFT
WINDS TO THE EAST...BUT GUSTS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN 20
KNOTS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...KJC/FRANK
MARINE...KJC/FRANK




000
FXUS61 KBOX 310707
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
307 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS TODAY...THEN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL
BRING COOLER WEATHER TUESDAY MAINLY JUST TO EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND. UNSEASONABLY HOT WEATHER RETURNS TO MOST OF THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING
SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER FRIDAY INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER
CONTINUING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
NOTING ISOLD SHOWERS S OF LONG ISLAND IN AXIS OF HIGHER KI
VALUES...BUT DRYING FROM THE NORTH WILL KEEP ANY SHOWERS EARLY
THIS MORNING SOUTH OF NEW ENG. OTHERWISE...MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING SUNSHINE TODAY
AS PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL DRYING MOVES S INTO SNE.

MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE MARITIMES WILL BRING A
COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO MAINE THIS AFTERNOON. GENERALLY W FLOW IN
SNE AHEAD OF THE FRONT COMBINED WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 17C WILL
RESULT IN A HOT DAY WITH TEMPS UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...A BIT COOLER HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S
COAST WHERE SW WINDS WILL DEVELOP. IT WILL BE MODERATELY HUMID
WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. WE WILL LIKELY GENERATE
500-1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE BUT VERY DRY MID LEVELS AND LOW KI VALUES
WILL RESULT IN A DRY DAY WITH NO CONVECTION EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL MOVE S INTO SNE LATE TONIGHT. MAIN
EFFECT WILL BE A WIND SHIFT TO LIGHT N WINDS AND DRYING IN THE
LOW LEVELS. NOTING KI VALUES CRASHING BELOW ZERO 06-12Z. DRY
CONDITIONS AND MOCLEAR SKIES EXPECTED. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN
IN NORMALLY PRONE LOCATIONS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70
DEGREES.

TUESDAY...
THE WEAK FRONT WILL LIKELY MIX OUT DURING THE DAY AS WEAK AREA OF
HIGH PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. VERY DRY AIR IN THE MID
LEVELS WILL RESULT IN LOTS OF SUNSHINE. SEABREEZES WILL QUICKLY
DEVELOP ON BOTH COASTS WITH COOLER TEMPS ESPECIALLY ACROSS E
COASTAL MA...BUT NOT MUCH COOLER CT VALLEY. TEMPS WILL REACH MID
TO UPPER 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST AND NEAR 90 CT VALLEY...BUT UPPER
70S ALONG IMMEDIATE COAST OF E MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* VERY WARM ON TUESDAY EXCEPT COOLER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND COAST
* UNSEASONABLY HOT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
* A BIT COOLER FRI INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL
* MAINLY DRY OTHER THEN PERHAPS A SPOT SHOWER/STORM THU

DETAILS...

ALL MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER RIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.  THIS
MEANS ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER.  WE MAY SEE ENOUGH FORCING TO SPARK A FEW SPOT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SOMETIME THU INTO THU EVENING WITH A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT.  HOWEVER...ODDS ARE AGAINST ANY WIDESPREAD MEANINGFUL
RAINFALL GIVEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING...SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE SLIGHT
CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW.

THE EXCEPTION FROM THE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL BE TUESDAY
ACROSS COASTAL NEW ENGLAND...WHEN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT KEEPS HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S.  HOWEVER...THE LOWER CT
RIVER VALLEY SHOULD STILL SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S ON TUE AND ITS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOMEONE TOUCHES 90.

THE HOTTEST WEATHER LOOK TO BE WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO THURSDAY
WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 18C.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S AND LOWER 90S AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW LOCATIONS
HIT THE MIDDLE 90S.

ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL COOL TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES FRI
INTO SAT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.  HOWEVER...STILL
EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL RIGHT THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND GIVEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN CONTROL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. EXCEPT PATCHY IFR
FOG EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT IN THE TYPICALLY
PRONE LOCATIONS. SEA BREEZES LIKELY TUESDAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE LIKELY
TUESDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD OTHER THAN VERY LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.  A SPOT
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE THU/THU EVENING...BUT
ODDS ARE AGAINST ANYTHING WIDESPREAD.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL RESULT IN SW GUSTS AROUND 20 KT
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS BUT THERE IS A LOW PROB OF SEAS BUILDING TO
5 FT OVER SOUTHERN WATERS LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. WINDS
SHIFT TO LIGHT NORTH LATE TONIGHT THEN BECOMING E/SE TUE AFTERNOON
WITH SUBSIDING SEAS.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  VISIBILITY SHOULD BE
GOOD AS WELL...SO NICE BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TUE AND AGAIN SOMETIME THU INTO FRI WILL SHIFT
WINDS TO THE EAST...BUT GUSTS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN 20
KNOTS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...KJC/FRANK
MARINE...KJC/FRANK




000
FXUS61 KBOX 310707
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
307 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS TODAY...THEN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL
BRING COOLER WEATHER TUESDAY MAINLY JUST TO EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND. UNSEASONABLY HOT WEATHER RETURNS TO MOST OF THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING
SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER FRIDAY INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER
CONTINUING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
NOTING ISOLD SHOWERS S OF LONG ISLAND IN AXIS OF HIGHER KI
VALUES...BUT DRYING FROM THE NORTH WILL KEEP ANY SHOWERS EARLY
THIS MORNING SOUTH OF NEW ENG. OTHERWISE...MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING SUNSHINE TODAY
AS PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL DRYING MOVES S INTO SNE.

MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE MARITIMES WILL BRING A
COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO MAINE THIS AFTERNOON. GENERALLY W FLOW IN
SNE AHEAD OF THE FRONT COMBINED WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 17C WILL
RESULT IN A HOT DAY WITH TEMPS UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...A BIT COOLER HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S
COAST WHERE SW WINDS WILL DEVELOP. IT WILL BE MODERATELY HUMID
WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. WE WILL LIKELY GENERATE
500-1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE BUT VERY DRY MID LEVELS AND LOW KI VALUES
WILL RESULT IN A DRY DAY WITH NO CONVECTION EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL MOVE S INTO SNE LATE TONIGHT. MAIN
EFFECT WILL BE A WIND SHIFT TO LIGHT N WINDS AND DRYING IN THE
LOW LEVELS. NOTING KI VALUES CRASHING BELOW ZERO 06-12Z. DRY
CONDITIONS AND MOCLEAR SKIES EXPECTED. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN
IN NORMALLY PRONE LOCATIONS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70
DEGREES.

TUESDAY...
THE WEAK FRONT WILL LIKELY MIX OUT DURING THE DAY AS WEAK AREA OF
HIGH PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. VERY DRY AIR IN THE MID
LEVELS WILL RESULT IN LOTS OF SUNSHINE. SEABREEZES WILL QUICKLY
DEVELOP ON BOTH COASTS WITH COOLER TEMPS ESPECIALLY ACROSS E
COASTAL MA...BUT NOT MUCH COOLER CT VALLEY. TEMPS WILL REACH MID
TO UPPER 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST AND NEAR 90 CT VALLEY...BUT UPPER
70S ALONG IMMEDIATE COAST OF E MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* VERY WARM ON TUESDAY EXCEPT COOLER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND COAST
* UNSEASONABLY HOT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
* A BIT COOLER FRI INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL
* MAINLY DRY OTHER THEN PERHAPS A SPOT SHOWER/STORM THU

DETAILS...

ALL MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER RIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.  THIS
MEANS ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER.  WE MAY SEE ENOUGH FORCING TO SPARK A FEW SPOT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SOMETIME THU INTO THU EVENING WITH A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT.  HOWEVER...ODDS ARE AGAINST ANY WIDESPREAD MEANINGFUL
RAINFALL GIVEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING...SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE SLIGHT
CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW.

THE EXCEPTION FROM THE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL BE TUESDAY
ACROSS COASTAL NEW ENGLAND...WHEN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT KEEPS HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S.  HOWEVER...THE LOWER CT
RIVER VALLEY SHOULD STILL SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S ON TUE AND ITS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOMEONE TOUCHES 90.

THE HOTTEST WEATHER LOOK TO BE WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO THURSDAY
WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 18C.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S AND LOWER 90S AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW LOCATIONS
HIT THE MIDDLE 90S.

ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL COOL TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES FRI
INTO SAT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.  HOWEVER...STILL
EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL RIGHT THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND GIVEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN CONTROL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. EXCEPT PATCHY IFR
FOG EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT IN THE TYPICALLY
PRONE LOCATIONS. SEA BREEZES LIKELY TUESDAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE LIKELY
TUESDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD OTHER THAN VERY LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.  A SPOT
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE THU/THU EVENING...BUT
ODDS ARE AGAINST ANYTHING WIDESPREAD.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL RESULT IN SW GUSTS AROUND 20 KT
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS BUT THERE IS A LOW PROB OF SEAS BUILDING TO
5 FT OVER SOUTHERN WATERS LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. WINDS
SHIFT TO LIGHT NORTH LATE TONIGHT THEN BECOMING E/SE TUE AFTERNOON
WITH SUBSIDING SEAS.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  VISIBILITY SHOULD BE
GOOD AS WELL...SO NICE BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TUE AND AGAIN SOMETIME THU INTO FRI WILL SHIFT
WINDS TO THE EAST...BUT GUSTS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN 20
KNOTS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...KJC/FRANK
MARINE...KJC/FRANK




000
FXUS61 KBOX 310707
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
307 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS TODAY...THEN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL
BRING COOLER WEATHER TUESDAY MAINLY JUST TO EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND. UNSEASONABLY HOT WEATHER RETURNS TO MOST OF THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING
SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER FRIDAY INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER
CONTINUING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
NOTING ISOLD SHOWERS S OF LONG ISLAND IN AXIS OF HIGHER KI
VALUES...BUT DRYING FROM THE NORTH WILL KEEP ANY SHOWERS EARLY
THIS MORNING SOUTH OF NEW ENG. OTHERWISE...MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING SUNSHINE TODAY
AS PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL DRYING MOVES S INTO SNE.

MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE MARITIMES WILL BRING A
COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO MAINE THIS AFTERNOON. GENERALLY W FLOW IN
SNE AHEAD OF THE FRONT COMBINED WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 17C WILL
RESULT IN A HOT DAY WITH TEMPS UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...A BIT COOLER HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S
COAST WHERE SW WINDS WILL DEVELOP. IT WILL BE MODERATELY HUMID
WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. WE WILL LIKELY GENERATE
500-1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE BUT VERY DRY MID LEVELS AND LOW KI VALUES
WILL RESULT IN A DRY DAY WITH NO CONVECTION EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL MOVE S INTO SNE LATE TONIGHT. MAIN
EFFECT WILL BE A WIND SHIFT TO LIGHT N WINDS AND DRYING IN THE
LOW LEVELS. NOTING KI VALUES CRASHING BELOW ZERO 06-12Z. DRY
CONDITIONS AND MOCLEAR SKIES EXPECTED. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN
IN NORMALLY PRONE LOCATIONS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70
DEGREES.

TUESDAY...
THE WEAK FRONT WILL LIKELY MIX OUT DURING THE DAY AS WEAK AREA OF
HIGH PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. VERY DRY AIR IN THE MID
LEVELS WILL RESULT IN LOTS OF SUNSHINE. SEABREEZES WILL QUICKLY
DEVELOP ON BOTH COASTS WITH COOLER TEMPS ESPECIALLY ACROSS E
COASTAL MA...BUT NOT MUCH COOLER CT VALLEY. TEMPS WILL REACH MID
TO UPPER 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST AND NEAR 90 CT VALLEY...BUT UPPER
70S ALONG IMMEDIATE COAST OF E MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* VERY WARM ON TUESDAY EXCEPT COOLER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND COAST
* UNSEASONABLY HOT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
* A BIT COOLER FRI INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL
* MAINLY DRY OTHER THEN PERHAPS A SPOT SHOWER/STORM THU

DETAILS...

ALL MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER RIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.  THIS
MEANS ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER.  WE MAY SEE ENOUGH FORCING TO SPARK A FEW SPOT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SOMETIME THU INTO THU EVENING WITH A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT.  HOWEVER...ODDS ARE AGAINST ANY WIDESPREAD MEANINGFUL
RAINFALL GIVEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING...SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE SLIGHT
CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW.

THE EXCEPTION FROM THE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL BE TUESDAY
ACROSS COASTAL NEW ENGLAND...WHEN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT KEEPS HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S.  HOWEVER...THE LOWER CT
RIVER VALLEY SHOULD STILL SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S ON TUE AND ITS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOMEONE TOUCHES 90.

THE HOTTEST WEATHER LOOK TO BE WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO THURSDAY
WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 18C.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S AND LOWER 90S AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW LOCATIONS
HIT THE MIDDLE 90S.

ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL COOL TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES FRI
INTO SAT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.  HOWEVER...STILL
EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL RIGHT THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND GIVEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN CONTROL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. EXCEPT PATCHY IFR
FOG EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT IN THE TYPICALLY
PRONE LOCATIONS. SEA BREEZES LIKELY TUESDAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE LIKELY
TUESDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD OTHER THAN VERY LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.  A SPOT
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE THU/THU EVENING...BUT
ODDS ARE AGAINST ANYTHING WIDESPREAD.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL RESULT IN SW GUSTS AROUND 20 KT
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS BUT THERE IS A LOW PROB OF SEAS BUILDING TO
5 FT OVER SOUTHERN WATERS LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. WINDS
SHIFT TO LIGHT NORTH LATE TONIGHT THEN BECOMING E/SE TUE AFTERNOON
WITH SUBSIDING SEAS.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  VISIBILITY SHOULD BE
GOOD AS WELL...SO NICE BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TUE AND AGAIN SOMETIME THU INTO FRI WILL SHIFT
WINDS TO THE EAST...BUT GUSTS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN 20
KNOTS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...KJC/FRANK
MARINE...KJC/FRANK




000
FXUS61 KBOX 310539
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
139 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH HOT CONDITIONS ON MONDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL BRING COOLER WEATHER TUESDAY BUT MAINLY JUST TO EASTERN
NEW ENGLAND... BEFORE UNSEASONABLY HOT WEATHER RETURNS TO MOST OF
THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
SHOULD BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER FRIDAY INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAINLY
DRY WEATHER CONTINUING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
140 AM UPDATE...
ISOLD SHOWERS EXITING CAPE COD...OTHERWISE CLEARING SKIES
EXPECTED FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BUT MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL HANG TOUGH
NEAR THE S COAST THROUGH DAYBREAK. PATCHY FOG IN THE NORMALLY
PRONE LOCATIONS. LOW TEMPS RANGING FROM AROUND 60 IN THE NORMALLY
COOLER OUTLYING LOCATIONS OF NORTHWEST MA...TO MAINLY THE 60S TO
AROUND 70 ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
MONDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM QUEBEC INTO THE MARITIMES WILL
BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH MAINE AND INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND.  STILL SEEING QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR ACROSS THE REGION
SO AM NOT EXPECTING ANY RAIN AND EVEN A FEW DIURNAL CLOUDS SEEM TO
STRUGGLE.  STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTRIBUTES TO THE DRY
AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS BUT ALSO BRINGS WARMER 850MB TEMPS
INTO THE REGION. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND
90 FOR MOST LOCATIONS.  ONSHORE WINDS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WILL
KEEP THE IMMEDIATE COAST A BIT COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S.

MONDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
START TO BUILD INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND
WITH DRIER NORTHWESTERLY WINDS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RADIATE OUT A
BIT MORE.  EXPECT LOWS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* VERY WARM ON TUESDAY EXCEPT COOLER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND COAST
* UNSEASONABLY HOT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
* A BIT COOLER FRI INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL
* MAINLY DRY OTHER THEN PERHAPS A SPOT SHOWER/STORM THU

DETAILS...

ALL MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER RIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.  THIS
MEANS ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER.  WE MAY SEE ENOUGH FORCING TO SPARK A FEW SPOT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SOMETIME THU INTO THU EVENING WITH A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT.  HOWEVER...ODDS ARE AGAINST ANY WIDESPREAD MEANINGFUL
RAINFALL GIVEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING...SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE SLIGHT
CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW.

THE EXCEPTION FROM THE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL BE TUESDAY
ACROSS COASTAL NEW ENGLAND...WHEN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT KEEPS HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S.  HOWEVER...THE LOWER CT
RIVER VALLEY SHOULD STILL SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S ON TUE AND ITS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOMEONE TOUCHES 90.

THE HOTTEST WEATHER LOOK TO BE WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO THURSDAY
WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 18C.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S AND LOWER 90S AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW LOCATIONS
HIT THE MIDDLE 90S.

ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL COOL TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES FRI
INTO SAT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.  HOWEVER...STILL
EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL RIGHT THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND GIVEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN CONTROL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. EXCEPT PATCHY IFR
FOG EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT IN THE TYPICALLY
PRONE LOCATIONS. SEA BREEZES LIKELY TUESDAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE LIKELY
TUESDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD OTHER THAN VERY LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.  A SPOT
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE THU/THU EVENING...BUT
ODDS ARE AGAINST ANYTHING WIDESPREAD.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS WILL KEEP WINDS
AND WAVES BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS
EXPECTED. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF 5 FOOT
SEAS ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  VISIBILITY SHOULD BE
GOOD AS WELL...SO NICE BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TUE AND AGAIN SOMETIME THU INTO FRI WILL SHIFT
WINDS TO THE EAST...BUT GUSTS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN 20
KNOTS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/RLG
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...KJC/FRANK
MARINE...FRANK/RLG




000
FXUS61 KBOX 310539
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
139 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH HOT CONDITIONS ON MONDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL BRING COOLER WEATHER TUESDAY BUT MAINLY JUST TO EASTERN
NEW ENGLAND... BEFORE UNSEASONABLY HOT WEATHER RETURNS TO MOST OF
THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
SHOULD BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER FRIDAY INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAINLY
DRY WEATHER CONTINUING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
140 AM UPDATE...
ISOLD SHOWERS EXITING CAPE COD...OTHERWISE CLEARING SKIES
EXPECTED FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BUT MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL HANG TOUGH
NEAR THE S COAST THROUGH DAYBREAK. PATCHY FOG IN THE NORMALLY
PRONE LOCATIONS. LOW TEMPS RANGING FROM AROUND 60 IN THE NORMALLY
COOLER OUTLYING LOCATIONS OF NORTHWEST MA...TO MAINLY THE 60S TO
AROUND 70 ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
MONDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM QUEBEC INTO THE MARITIMES WILL
BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH MAINE AND INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND.  STILL SEEING QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR ACROSS THE REGION
SO AM NOT EXPECTING ANY RAIN AND EVEN A FEW DIURNAL CLOUDS SEEM TO
STRUGGLE.  STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTRIBUTES TO THE DRY
AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS BUT ALSO BRINGS WARMER 850MB TEMPS
INTO THE REGION. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND
90 FOR MOST LOCATIONS.  ONSHORE WINDS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WILL
KEEP THE IMMEDIATE COAST A BIT COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S.

MONDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
START TO BUILD INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND
WITH DRIER NORTHWESTERLY WINDS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RADIATE OUT A
BIT MORE.  EXPECT LOWS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* VERY WARM ON TUESDAY EXCEPT COOLER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND COAST
* UNSEASONABLY HOT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
* A BIT COOLER FRI INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL
* MAINLY DRY OTHER THEN PERHAPS A SPOT SHOWER/STORM THU

DETAILS...

ALL MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER RIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.  THIS
MEANS ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER.  WE MAY SEE ENOUGH FORCING TO SPARK A FEW SPOT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SOMETIME THU INTO THU EVENING WITH A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT.  HOWEVER...ODDS ARE AGAINST ANY WIDESPREAD MEANINGFUL
RAINFALL GIVEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING...SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE SLIGHT
CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW.

THE EXCEPTION FROM THE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL BE TUESDAY
ACROSS COASTAL NEW ENGLAND...WHEN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT KEEPS HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S.  HOWEVER...THE LOWER CT
RIVER VALLEY SHOULD STILL SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S ON TUE AND ITS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOMEONE TOUCHES 90.

THE HOTTEST WEATHER LOOK TO BE WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO THURSDAY
WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 18C.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S AND LOWER 90S AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW LOCATIONS
HIT THE MIDDLE 90S.

ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL COOL TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES FRI
INTO SAT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.  HOWEVER...STILL
EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL RIGHT THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND GIVEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN CONTROL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. EXCEPT PATCHY IFR
FOG EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT IN THE TYPICALLY
PRONE LOCATIONS. SEA BREEZES LIKELY TUESDAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE LIKELY
TUESDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD OTHER THAN VERY LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.  A SPOT
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE THU/THU EVENING...BUT
ODDS ARE AGAINST ANYTHING WIDESPREAD.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS WILL KEEP WINDS
AND WAVES BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS
EXPECTED. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF 5 FOOT
SEAS ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  VISIBILITY SHOULD BE
GOOD AS WELL...SO NICE BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TUE AND AGAIN SOMETIME THU INTO FRI WILL SHIFT
WINDS TO THE EAST...BUT GUSTS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN 20
KNOTS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/RLG
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...KJC/FRANK
MARINE...FRANK/RLG




000
FXUS61 KBOX 310539
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
139 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH HOT CONDITIONS ON MONDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL BRING COOLER WEATHER TUESDAY BUT MAINLY JUST TO EASTERN
NEW ENGLAND... BEFORE UNSEASONABLY HOT WEATHER RETURNS TO MOST OF
THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
SHOULD BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER FRIDAY INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAINLY
DRY WEATHER CONTINUING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
140 AM UPDATE...
ISOLD SHOWERS EXITING CAPE COD...OTHERWISE CLEARING SKIES
EXPECTED FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BUT MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL HANG TOUGH
NEAR THE S COAST THROUGH DAYBREAK. PATCHY FOG IN THE NORMALLY
PRONE LOCATIONS. LOW TEMPS RANGING FROM AROUND 60 IN THE NORMALLY
COOLER OUTLYING LOCATIONS OF NORTHWEST MA...TO MAINLY THE 60S TO
AROUND 70 ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
MONDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM QUEBEC INTO THE MARITIMES WILL
BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH MAINE AND INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND.  STILL SEEING QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR ACROSS THE REGION
SO AM NOT EXPECTING ANY RAIN AND EVEN A FEW DIURNAL CLOUDS SEEM TO
STRUGGLE.  STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTRIBUTES TO THE DRY
AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS BUT ALSO BRINGS WARMER 850MB TEMPS
INTO THE REGION. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND
90 FOR MOST LOCATIONS.  ONSHORE WINDS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WILL
KEEP THE IMMEDIATE COAST A BIT COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S.

MONDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
START TO BUILD INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND
WITH DRIER NORTHWESTERLY WINDS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RADIATE OUT A
BIT MORE.  EXPECT LOWS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* VERY WARM ON TUESDAY EXCEPT COOLER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND COAST
* UNSEASONABLY HOT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
* A BIT COOLER FRI INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL
* MAINLY DRY OTHER THEN PERHAPS A SPOT SHOWER/STORM THU

DETAILS...

ALL MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER RIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.  THIS
MEANS ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER.  WE MAY SEE ENOUGH FORCING TO SPARK A FEW SPOT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SOMETIME THU INTO THU EVENING WITH A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT.  HOWEVER...ODDS ARE AGAINST ANY WIDESPREAD MEANINGFUL
RAINFALL GIVEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING...SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE SLIGHT
CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW.

THE EXCEPTION FROM THE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL BE TUESDAY
ACROSS COASTAL NEW ENGLAND...WHEN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT KEEPS HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S.  HOWEVER...THE LOWER CT
RIVER VALLEY SHOULD STILL SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S ON TUE AND ITS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOMEONE TOUCHES 90.

THE HOTTEST WEATHER LOOK TO BE WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO THURSDAY
WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 18C.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S AND LOWER 90S AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW LOCATIONS
HIT THE MIDDLE 90S.

ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL COOL TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES FRI
INTO SAT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.  HOWEVER...STILL
EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL RIGHT THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND GIVEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN CONTROL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. EXCEPT PATCHY IFR
FOG EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT IN THE TYPICALLY
PRONE LOCATIONS. SEA BREEZES LIKELY TUESDAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE LIKELY
TUESDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD OTHER THAN VERY LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.  A SPOT
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE THU/THU EVENING...BUT
ODDS ARE AGAINST ANYTHING WIDESPREAD.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS WILL KEEP WINDS
AND WAVES BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS
EXPECTED. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF 5 FOOT
SEAS ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  VISIBILITY SHOULD BE
GOOD AS WELL...SO NICE BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TUE AND AGAIN SOMETIME THU INTO FRI WILL SHIFT
WINDS TO THE EAST...BUT GUSTS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN 20
KNOTS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/RLG
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...KJC/FRANK
MARINE...FRANK/RLG




000
FXUS61 KBOX 310539
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
139 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH HOT CONDITIONS ON MONDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL BRING COOLER WEATHER TUESDAY BUT MAINLY JUST TO EASTERN
NEW ENGLAND... BEFORE UNSEASONABLY HOT WEATHER RETURNS TO MOST OF
THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
SHOULD BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER FRIDAY INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAINLY
DRY WEATHER CONTINUING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
140 AM UPDATE...
ISOLD SHOWERS EXITING CAPE COD...OTHERWISE CLEARING SKIES
EXPECTED FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BUT MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL HANG TOUGH
NEAR THE S COAST THROUGH DAYBREAK. PATCHY FOG IN THE NORMALLY
PRONE LOCATIONS. LOW TEMPS RANGING FROM AROUND 60 IN THE NORMALLY
COOLER OUTLYING LOCATIONS OF NORTHWEST MA...TO MAINLY THE 60S TO
AROUND 70 ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
MONDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM QUEBEC INTO THE MARITIMES WILL
BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH MAINE AND INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND.  STILL SEEING QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR ACROSS THE REGION
SO AM NOT EXPECTING ANY RAIN AND EVEN A FEW DIURNAL CLOUDS SEEM TO
STRUGGLE.  STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTRIBUTES TO THE DRY
AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS BUT ALSO BRINGS WARMER 850MB TEMPS
INTO THE REGION. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND
90 FOR MOST LOCATIONS.  ONSHORE WINDS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WILL
KEEP THE IMMEDIATE COAST A BIT COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S.

MONDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
START TO BUILD INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND
WITH DRIER NORTHWESTERLY WINDS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RADIATE OUT A
BIT MORE.  EXPECT LOWS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* VERY WARM ON TUESDAY EXCEPT COOLER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND COAST
* UNSEASONABLY HOT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
* A BIT COOLER FRI INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL
* MAINLY DRY OTHER THEN PERHAPS A SPOT SHOWER/STORM THU

DETAILS...

ALL MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER RIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.  THIS
MEANS ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER.  WE MAY SEE ENOUGH FORCING TO SPARK A FEW SPOT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SOMETIME THU INTO THU EVENING WITH A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT.  HOWEVER...ODDS ARE AGAINST ANY WIDESPREAD MEANINGFUL
RAINFALL GIVEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING...SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE SLIGHT
CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW.

THE EXCEPTION FROM THE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL BE TUESDAY
ACROSS COASTAL NEW ENGLAND...WHEN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT KEEPS HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S.  HOWEVER...THE LOWER CT
RIVER VALLEY SHOULD STILL SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S ON TUE AND ITS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOMEONE TOUCHES 90.

THE HOTTEST WEATHER LOOK TO BE WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO THURSDAY
WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 18C.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S AND LOWER 90S AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW LOCATIONS
HIT THE MIDDLE 90S.

ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL COOL TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES FRI
INTO SAT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.  HOWEVER...STILL
EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL RIGHT THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND GIVEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN CONTROL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. EXCEPT PATCHY IFR
FOG EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT IN THE TYPICALLY
PRONE LOCATIONS. SEA BREEZES LIKELY TUESDAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE LIKELY
TUESDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD OTHER THAN VERY LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.  A SPOT
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE THU/THU EVENING...BUT
ODDS ARE AGAINST ANYTHING WIDESPREAD.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS WILL KEEP WINDS
AND WAVES BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS
EXPECTED. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF 5 FOOT
SEAS ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  VISIBILITY SHOULD BE
GOOD AS WELL...SO NICE BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TUE AND AGAIN SOMETIME THU INTO FRI WILL SHIFT
WINDS TO THE EAST...BUT GUSTS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN 20
KNOTS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/RLG
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...KJC/FRANK
MARINE...FRANK/RLG




000
FXUS61 KBOX 310539
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
139 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH HOT CONDITIONS ON MONDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL BRING COOLER WEATHER TUESDAY BUT MAINLY JUST TO EASTERN
NEW ENGLAND... BEFORE UNSEASONABLY HOT WEATHER RETURNS TO MOST OF
THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
SHOULD BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER FRIDAY INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAINLY
DRY WEATHER CONTINUING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
140 AM UPDATE...
ISOLD SHOWERS EXITING CAPE COD...OTHERWISE CLEARING SKIES
EXPECTED FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BUT MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL HANG TOUGH
NEAR THE S COAST THROUGH DAYBREAK. PATCHY FOG IN THE NORMALLY
PRONE LOCATIONS. LOW TEMPS RANGING FROM AROUND 60 IN THE NORMALLY
COOLER OUTLYING LOCATIONS OF NORTHWEST MA...TO MAINLY THE 60S TO
AROUND 70 ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
MONDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM QUEBEC INTO THE MARITIMES WILL
BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH MAINE AND INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND.  STILL SEEING QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR ACROSS THE REGION
SO AM NOT EXPECTING ANY RAIN AND EVEN A FEW DIURNAL CLOUDS SEEM TO
STRUGGLE.  STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTRIBUTES TO THE DRY
AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS BUT ALSO BRINGS WARMER 850MB TEMPS
INTO THE REGION. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND
90 FOR MOST LOCATIONS.  ONSHORE WINDS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WILL
KEEP THE IMMEDIATE COAST A BIT COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S.

MONDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
START TO BUILD INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND
WITH DRIER NORTHWESTERLY WINDS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RADIATE OUT A
BIT MORE.  EXPECT LOWS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* VERY WARM ON TUESDAY EXCEPT COOLER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND COAST
* UNSEASONABLY HOT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
* A BIT COOLER FRI INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL
* MAINLY DRY OTHER THEN PERHAPS A SPOT SHOWER/STORM THU

DETAILS...

ALL MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER RIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.  THIS
MEANS ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER.  WE MAY SEE ENOUGH FORCING TO SPARK A FEW SPOT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SOMETIME THU INTO THU EVENING WITH A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT.  HOWEVER...ODDS ARE AGAINST ANY WIDESPREAD MEANINGFUL
RAINFALL GIVEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING...SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE SLIGHT
CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW.

THE EXCEPTION FROM THE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL BE TUESDAY
ACROSS COASTAL NEW ENGLAND...WHEN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT KEEPS HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S.  HOWEVER...THE LOWER CT
RIVER VALLEY SHOULD STILL SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S ON TUE AND ITS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOMEONE TOUCHES 90.

THE HOTTEST WEATHER LOOK TO BE WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO THURSDAY
WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 18C.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S AND LOWER 90S AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW LOCATIONS
HIT THE MIDDLE 90S.

ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL COOL TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES FRI
INTO SAT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.  HOWEVER...STILL
EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL RIGHT THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND GIVEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN CONTROL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. EXCEPT PATCHY IFR
FOG EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT IN THE TYPICALLY
PRONE LOCATIONS. SEA BREEZES LIKELY TUESDAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE LIKELY
TUESDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD OTHER THAN VERY LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.  A SPOT
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE THU/THU EVENING...BUT
ODDS ARE AGAINST ANYTHING WIDESPREAD.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS WILL KEEP WINDS
AND WAVES BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS
EXPECTED. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF 5 FOOT
SEAS ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  VISIBILITY SHOULD BE
GOOD AS WELL...SO NICE BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TUE AND AGAIN SOMETIME THU INTO FRI WILL SHIFT
WINDS TO THE EAST...BUT GUSTS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN 20
KNOTS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/RLG
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...KJC/FRANK
MARINE...FRANK/RLG




000
FXUS61 KOKX 310525
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
125 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND MOVE
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND MONDAY. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
LATE MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT IT WILL STILL BE WARM
AND MAINLY DRY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK.

MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED HIGHER PVA MOVE MOSTLY SOUTH
OF THE REGION WITH A STRONGER ONE TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CANADA. AT THE SURFACE...THERE WILL BE A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
MOVING TOWARDS THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP AN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS
OVERHEAD FOR THE NIGHT. THE LOWS WERE TAKEN FROM THE RELATIVELY
WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE OF THE MAV MOS...WITH VALUES EXPECTED TO
BE WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW.

ENVIRONMENT WILL STILL BE SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE WITH SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. WITH THESE AFOREMENTIONED
FACTORS...THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR TONIGHT ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE SHORTWAVE WEAKENS SOUTH OF THE REGION MONDAY. A HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGE FROM THE WEST WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN. HOWEVER...AT THE
SURFACE...THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN AND THE DAYTIME SHOULD ENHANCE IT
WITH THE SEA BREEZE GIVING SOME INCREASE IN THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
WITHIN THE REGION ACROSS THE COAST. THE COOLER TEMPS WILL BE
ADVECTED INTO THE REGION FROM THE MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS WILL
CONVERGE AGAINST PLACES THAT HAVE SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE POPS OVERALL
WILL NOT BE HIGH...JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CLOSE TO THE COAST...BUT WITH THE AIRMASS BECOMING INCREASINGLY WARM
AND HUMID...INSTABILITY WILL BE LARGER AS CAPE INCREASES TO
APPROXIMATELY 500-1000 J/KG. INLAND...DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL. AN OVERALL VERY WARM DAY EXPECTED. A MAV/MET BLEND WAS USED
FOR HIGHS...YIELDING VALUES FROM THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS A
MAJORITY OF THE REGION.

ONCE THE HEATING WANES DOWN FOR MONDAY EVENING...THE ENVIRONMENT
WILL BECOME MORE STABLE AND THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE FROM THE WEST
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL HAVE PUSHED SOUTH
OF LONG ISLAND. THERE WILL BE A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS LATE. OVERALL...THE GREATER INFLUENCE WILL BE FROM THE
RIDGE AND THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGING WILL LEAD TO LESSENING
CLOUDS. HOWEVER...DESPITE LIGHT WINDS...LOWS WILL NOT CHANGE TOO
MUCH COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS NIGHT. THE RELATIVELY WARM AND
HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN THOUGH AS WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASES
AT THE 850MB LEVEL.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS ON
MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MAIN THEME OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE CONTINUATION OF
HEAT AND HUMIDITY ACROSS THE REGION.

MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE H5 PATTERN ACROSS NOAM
THROUGH THE PERIOD. A LATE SEASON HEAT WAVE IS EXPECTED FOR PARTS OF
THE TRI-STATE AREA THIS WEEK AS A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE ENCOMPASSES THE
EASTERN US. A SLY FLOW FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK WILL KEEP HUMIDITY
LEVELS HIGH AS WELL. THE HOTTEST DAY...HEAT AND HUMIDITY COMBINED
LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY WITH MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT. NOT EXPECTING HEAT ADVSY CRITERIA TO BE MET...ALTHOUGH HEAT
INDICES WILL RANGE BETWEEN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH WED WITH 90 TO 95 ON THU. ALTHOUGH PARTS OF NYC MAY REACH A
95 DEGREE HEAT INDEX THU...NOT EXPECTING IT FOR 2 CONSECUTIVE
DAYS. THEREFORE...NO ADVSY IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE CITY EITHER.

IT WILL BE A FAIRLY DRY WEEK WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH THE
WEAK BOUNDARY THU/THU EVE AND AGAIN FRI/FRI EVE AS ANOTHER WEAK
BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE N...THIS TIME WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE
ENERGY. THE FLOW BECOMES ELY FRI...BUT THE COMBINATION OF THE UPPER
ENERGY...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND THE OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCE COULD
TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS.

THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO PROVIDE SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT
ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST FRI THROUGH SUN. TEMPS WILL STILL BE 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THOUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND THEN REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. AN ISOLATED SHOWER MAINLY
WEST OF NYC TERMINALS CANNOT BE RULED OUT BEFORE DAY BREAK.

LIGHT SW OR VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH SUNRISE. W-WSW WINDS AROUND 10
KT DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
WIND SPEEDS SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON...10 TO 15 KT.
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT FOR CITY TERMINALS. GUSTS END AFTER SUNSET
WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR. AFTERNOON SEABREEZES PROBABLE
EACH AFTERNOON.
.THURSDAY...MOST LIKELY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. AFTERNOON SEABREEZES PROBABLE.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.FRIDAY...MOST LIKELY VFR. E WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE. ISOLATED-
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
PRIMARILY A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH MON NIGHT. THE WINDS
WILL BE MAINLY LESS THAN 15 KT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH.
THERE COULD BE A ROUND OF GUSTS MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT THESE ARE
EXPECTED TO BE UP TO 20 KT. SEAS ON THE OCEAN MAY GET TO 5 FT
MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT...DID NOT
THINK WINDS WOULD SUPPLY A STRONG ENOUGH FETCH TO INCREASE SEAS TO
5 FT. THEREFORE CAPPED THE OCEAN SEAS AT 4 FT MONDAY NIGHT.

SUB-ADVSY CONDS ARE EXPECTED ON ALL WATERS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THROUGH MONDAY COULD RESULT IN A BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOUR...WITH PERHAPS A QUICK QUARTER OF AN INCH IN
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THERE COULD BE SOME LOCALLY MINOR FLOODING BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW WITH COVERAGE OF CONVECTION FORECAST
BEING LOW.

OVERALL...NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A RECENT FULL MOON...BRIEF MINOR INUNDATION IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE ACROSS THE TYPICALLY VULNERABLE
COASTAL LOCALES FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JM
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...24/JM
HYDROLOGY...24/JM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KOKX 310525
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
125 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND MOVE
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND MONDAY. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
LATE MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT IT WILL STILL BE WARM
AND MAINLY DRY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK.

MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED HIGHER PVA MOVE MOSTLY SOUTH
OF THE REGION WITH A STRONGER ONE TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CANADA. AT THE SURFACE...THERE WILL BE A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
MOVING TOWARDS THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP AN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS
OVERHEAD FOR THE NIGHT. THE LOWS WERE TAKEN FROM THE RELATIVELY
WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE OF THE MAV MOS...WITH VALUES EXPECTED TO
BE WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW.

ENVIRONMENT WILL STILL BE SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE WITH SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. WITH THESE AFOREMENTIONED
FACTORS...THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR TONIGHT ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE SHORTWAVE WEAKENS SOUTH OF THE REGION MONDAY. A HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGE FROM THE WEST WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN. HOWEVER...AT THE
SURFACE...THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN AND THE DAYTIME SHOULD ENHANCE IT
WITH THE SEA BREEZE GIVING SOME INCREASE IN THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
WITHIN THE REGION ACROSS THE COAST. THE COOLER TEMPS WILL BE
ADVECTED INTO THE REGION FROM THE MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS WILL
CONVERGE AGAINST PLACES THAT HAVE SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE POPS OVERALL
WILL NOT BE HIGH...JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CLOSE TO THE COAST...BUT WITH THE AIRMASS BECOMING INCREASINGLY WARM
AND HUMID...INSTABILITY WILL BE LARGER AS CAPE INCREASES TO
APPROXIMATELY 500-1000 J/KG. INLAND...DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL. AN OVERALL VERY WARM DAY EXPECTED. A MAV/MET BLEND WAS USED
FOR HIGHS...YIELDING VALUES FROM THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS A
MAJORITY OF THE REGION.

ONCE THE HEATING WANES DOWN FOR MONDAY EVENING...THE ENVIRONMENT
WILL BECOME MORE STABLE AND THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE FROM THE WEST
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL HAVE PUSHED SOUTH
OF LONG ISLAND. THERE WILL BE A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS LATE. OVERALL...THE GREATER INFLUENCE WILL BE FROM THE
RIDGE AND THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGING WILL LEAD TO LESSENING
CLOUDS. HOWEVER...DESPITE LIGHT WINDS...LOWS WILL NOT CHANGE TOO
MUCH COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS NIGHT. THE RELATIVELY WARM AND
HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN THOUGH AS WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASES
AT THE 850MB LEVEL.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS ON
MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MAIN THEME OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE CONTINUATION OF
HEAT AND HUMIDITY ACROSS THE REGION.

MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE H5 PATTERN ACROSS NOAM
THROUGH THE PERIOD. A LATE SEASON HEAT WAVE IS EXPECTED FOR PARTS OF
THE TRI-STATE AREA THIS WEEK AS A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE ENCOMPASSES THE
EASTERN US. A SLY FLOW FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK WILL KEEP HUMIDITY
LEVELS HIGH AS WELL. THE HOTTEST DAY...HEAT AND HUMIDITY COMBINED
LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY WITH MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT. NOT EXPECTING HEAT ADVSY CRITERIA TO BE MET...ALTHOUGH HEAT
INDICES WILL RANGE BETWEEN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH WED WITH 90 TO 95 ON THU. ALTHOUGH PARTS OF NYC MAY REACH A
95 DEGREE HEAT INDEX THU...NOT EXPECTING IT FOR 2 CONSECUTIVE
DAYS. THEREFORE...NO ADVSY IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE CITY EITHER.

IT WILL BE A FAIRLY DRY WEEK WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH THE
WEAK BOUNDARY THU/THU EVE AND AGAIN FRI/FRI EVE AS ANOTHER WEAK
BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE N...THIS TIME WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE
ENERGY. THE FLOW BECOMES ELY FRI...BUT THE COMBINATION OF THE UPPER
ENERGY...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND THE OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCE COULD
TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS.

THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO PROVIDE SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT
ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST FRI THROUGH SUN. TEMPS WILL STILL BE 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THOUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND THEN REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. AN ISOLATED SHOWER MAINLY
WEST OF NYC TERMINALS CANNOT BE RULED OUT BEFORE DAY BREAK.

LIGHT SW OR VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH SUNRISE. W-WSW WINDS AROUND 10
KT DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
WIND SPEEDS SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON...10 TO 15 KT.
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT FOR CITY TERMINALS. GUSTS END AFTER SUNSET
WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR. AFTERNOON SEABREEZES PROBABLE
EACH AFTERNOON.
.THURSDAY...MOST LIKELY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. AFTERNOON SEABREEZES PROBABLE.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.FRIDAY...MOST LIKELY VFR. E WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE. ISOLATED-
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
PRIMARILY A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH MON NIGHT. THE WINDS
WILL BE MAINLY LESS THAN 15 KT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH.
THERE COULD BE A ROUND OF GUSTS MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT THESE ARE
EXPECTED TO BE UP TO 20 KT. SEAS ON THE OCEAN MAY GET TO 5 FT
MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT...DID NOT
THINK WINDS WOULD SUPPLY A STRONG ENOUGH FETCH TO INCREASE SEAS TO
5 FT. THEREFORE CAPPED THE OCEAN SEAS AT 4 FT MONDAY NIGHT.

SUB-ADVSY CONDS ARE EXPECTED ON ALL WATERS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THROUGH MONDAY COULD RESULT IN A BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOUR...WITH PERHAPS A QUICK QUARTER OF AN INCH IN
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THERE COULD BE SOME LOCALLY MINOR FLOODING BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW WITH COVERAGE OF CONVECTION FORECAST
BEING LOW.

OVERALL...NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A RECENT FULL MOON...BRIEF MINOR INUNDATION IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE ACROSS THE TYPICALLY VULNERABLE
COASTAL LOCALES FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JM
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...24/JM
HYDROLOGY...24/JM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KALY 310509
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
109 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THIS WEEK WILL BE HOT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS
THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. HIGHS MAINLY IN 80S ARE
EXPECTED MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH SOME 90S ANTICIPATED UP THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1245 AM EDT...A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF
THE REGION. HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS
SOUTHERN AREAS TO THE NORTH OF THIS DISTURBANCE. FURTHER N AND
W...OTHER THAN OCCASIONAL PATCHY MID LEVEL CLOUDS...SKIES ARE
BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR.

WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE MOVING AWAY...CLOUD COVER
WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH
SUNRISE...AND WITH WINDS BECOMING CALM AND DEW POINTS HOLDING IN
THE 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO
FORM...ESPECIALLY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS AND ANY AREAS WHICH RECEIVED
RAINFALL SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER
50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGING WILL BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT AND TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM. GUIDANCE INDICATES A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...HOWEVER MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED
AND THE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING EASTWARD.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY AROUND 10 DEGREES TO START THE
WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S MONDAY AND IN THE 80S
TUESDAY. DEW POINTS IN THE 60S WITH MAKE FOR HUMID/MUGGY CONDITIONS.

ALBANY`S LONGEST HEAT WAVE HAS OCCURRED DURING THIS TIME OF
YEAR...PLEASE REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR DETAILS AND FOR
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEK.

 &&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL LOOKS TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

H850 TEMPS LOOK TO AVERAGE BETWEEN +16C TO +18C THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
MOST OF THE TIME THE REGION WILL BE CAPPED SO EVEN WITH A SUFFICIENT
AMOUNT OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SURFACE INSTABILITY...IT WILL
BE DIFFICULT FOR CONVECTION TO BE REALIZED.

THE BIG STORY WILL BE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES...WHICH LOOK TO CREST
AROUND 90 IN THE VALLEYS EACH DAY...MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S. AT THIS
POINT...DEWPOINTS LOOK TO ALSO BE IN THE 60S WHICH WOULD KEEP
APPARENT TEMPERATURES (WHICH IS THE WHAT THE TEMPERATURE FEELS WHEN
COMBINED WITH HUMIDITY) BELOW 100 DEGREES.

WE HAVE KEPT MOST DAYS COMPLETELY DRY. THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS MIGHT BE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THURSDAY BOTH THE EUROPEAN (ECWMF) AND GFS
INDICATED A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT (OR JUST A SURFACE TROUGH) PASSING
THROUGH WHICH MIGHT BREAK THE CAP AND TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY...THE GFS INDICATED SOME CONVECTION POSSIBLY THE RESULT OF AN
EASTERLY FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. THIS
SCENARIO COULD ADD A LITTLE MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND PERHAPS
WORKING WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THE ECMWF DOES NOT INDICATE THIS FEATURE ON FRIDAY
AS IT BUILD THE HIGH CLOSER TO OUR REGION WITH REALLY NOT MUCH FLOW
AT ALL AND PRODUCING MORE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION.

NOW...WE DECIDED TO INCLUDE 20 POPS BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT AT
NO OTHER TIME FRAME.

THE SKY WILL RANGE FROM SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE
DAY...MAINLY CLEAR AT NIGHT. THERE COULD BE PATCHY VALLEY FOG BUT
DID NOT INCLUDE IT DURING THE EXTENDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL LOOKS TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

H850 TEMPS LOOK TO AVERAGE BETWEEN +16C TO +18C THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
MOST OF THE TIME THE REGION WILL BE CAPPED SO EVEN WITH A SUFFICIENT
AMOUNT OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SURFACE INSTABILITY...IT WILL
BE DIFFICULT FOR CONVECTION TO BE REALIZED.

THE BIG STORY WILL BE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES...WHICH LOOK TO CREST
AROUND 90 IN THE VALLEYS EACH DAY...MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S. AT THIS
POINT...DEWPOINTS LOOK TO ALSO BE IN THE 60S WHICH WOULD KEEP
APPARENT TEMPERATURES (WHICH IS THE WHAT THE TEMPERATURE FEELS WHEN
COMBINED WITH HUMIDITY) BELOW 100 DEGREES.

WE HAVE KEPT MOST DAYS COMPLETELY DRY. THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS MIGHT BE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THURSDAY BOTH THE EUROPEAN (ECWMF) AND GFS
INDICATED A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT (OR JUST A SURFACE TROUGH) PASSING
THROUGH WHICH MIGHT BREAK THE CAP AND TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY...THE GFS INDICATED SOME CONVECTION POSSIBLY THE RESULT OF AN
EASTERLY FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. THIS
SCENARIO COULD ADD A LITTLE MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND PERHAPS
WORKING WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THE ECMWF DOES NOT INDICATE THIS FEATURE ON FRIDAY
AS IT BUILD THE HIGH CLOSER TO OUR REGION WITH REALLY NOT MUCH FLOW
AT ALL AND PRODUCING MORE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION.

NOW...WE DECIDED TO INCLUDE 20 POPS BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT AT
NO OTHER TIME FRAME.

THE SKY WILL RANGE FROM SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE
DAY...MAINLY CLEAR AT NIGHT. THERE COULD BE PATCHY VALLEY FOG BUT
DID NOT INCLUDE IT DURING THE EXTENDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL GENERALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES
AWAY FROM OUR REGION. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF IFR FOG
LATE TONIGHT AT KPSF/GFL...ALTHOUGH IT WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON
HOW QUICKLY THE CLOUDS DEPART. KALB/KPOU COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD
OF MVFR BR AROUND SUNRISE...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO
CONTINUE AT THESE SITES. WINDS WILL BE CALM OVERNIGHT. ANY FOG
LOOKS TO DISSIPATE BY AROUND 12Z.

DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR
ALL TAF SITES WITH SCT CIRRUS CLOUDS AROUND. SOME SCT CU MAY
DEVELOP BY AFTN...MAINLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. SKIES WILL BECOME
SKC THIS EVENING WITH FOG DEVELOPING AT KGFL/KPSF AROUND 03Z.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME S-SW AT 5-10 KTS
ON MONDAY AND THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN MONDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
TUE: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECT FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

MOST OF THE REGION HAS NOT SEEN SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN OVER A
WEEK. THIS HAD LED TO THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX APPROACHING
300 IN OUR SOUTHERN MOST COUNTIES...AND LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO RISE
OVER THE DAYS TO COME.

WINDS DURING THE NEXT WEEK LOOK TO REMAIN CALM AT NIGHT AND
LIGHT DURING THE DAY...GENERALLY UNDER 10 MPH.

A FULL OR NEARLY FULL RECOVERY IS EXPECTED EACH OF THE NEXT
SEVERAL NIGHTS ALLOWING FOR THE FORMATION OF DEW.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE
MODERATE RANGE...40 TO 60 PERCENT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED AUGUST 27
THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST 29, 30
AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY.
DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS/KL
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...FRUGIS/11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KALY 310509
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
109 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THIS WEEK WILL BE HOT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS
THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. HIGHS MAINLY IN 80S ARE
EXPECTED MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH SOME 90S ANTICIPATED UP THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1245 AM EDT...A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF
THE REGION. HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS
SOUTHERN AREAS TO THE NORTH OF THIS DISTURBANCE. FURTHER N AND
W...OTHER THAN OCCASIONAL PATCHY MID LEVEL CLOUDS...SKIES ARE
BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR.

WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE MOVING AWAY...CLOUD COVER
WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH
SUNRISE...AND WITH WINDS BECOMING CALM AND DEW POINTS HOLDING IN
THE 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO
FORM...ESPECIALLY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS AND ANY AREAS WHICH RECEIVED
RAINFALL SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER
50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGING WILL BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT AND TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM. GUIDANCE INDICATES A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...HOWEVER MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED
AND THE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING EASTWARD.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY AROUND 10 DEGREES TO START THE
WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S MONDAY AND IN THE 80S
TUESDAY. DEW POINTS IN THE 60S WITH MAKE FOR HUMID/MUGGY CONDITIONS.

ALBANY`S LONGEST HEAT WAVE HAS OCCURRED DURING THIS TIME OF
YEAR...PLEASE REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR DETAILS AND FOR
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEK.

 &&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL LOOKS TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

H850 TEMPS LOOK TO AVERAGE BETWEEN +16C TO +18C THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
MOST OF THE TIME THE REGION WILL BE CAPPED SO EVEN WITH A SUFFICIENT
AMOUNT OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SURFACE INSTABILITY...IT WILL
BE DIFFICULT FOR CONVECTION TO BE REALIZED.

THE BIG STORY WILL BE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES...WHICH LOOK TO CREST
AROUND 90 IN THE VALLEYS EACH DAY...MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S. AT THIS
POINT...DEWPOINTS LOOK TO ALSO BE IN THE 60S WHICH WOULD KEEP
APPARENT TEMPERATURES (WHICH IS THE WHAT THE TEMPERATURE FEELS WHEN
COMBINED WITH HUMIDITY) BELOW 100 DEGREES.

WE HAVE KEPT MOST DAYS COMPLETELY DRY. THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS MIGHT BE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THURSDAY BOTH THE EUROPEAN (ECWMF) AND GFS
INDICATED A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT (OR JUST A SURFACE TROUGH) PASSING
THROUGH WHICH MIGHT BREAK THE CAP AND TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY...THE GFS INDICATED SOME CONVECTION POSSIBLY THE RESULT OF AN
EASTERLY FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. THIS
SCENARIO COULD ADD A LITTLE MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND PERHAPS
WORKING WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THE ECMWF DOES NOT INDICATE THIS FEATURE ON FRIDAY
AS IT BUILD THE HIGH CLOSER TO OUR REGION WITH REALLY NOT MUCH FLOW
AT ALL AND PRODUCING MORE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION.

NOW...WE DECIDED TO INCLUDE 20 POPS BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT AT
NO OTHER TIME FRAME.

THE SKY WILL RANGE FROM SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE
DAY...MAINLY CLEAR AT NIGHT. THERE COULD BE PATCHY VALLEY FOG BUT
DID NOT INCLUDE IT DURING THE EXTENDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL LOOKS TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

H850 TEMPS LOOK TO AVERAGE BETWEEN +16C TO +18C THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
MOST OF THE TIME THE REGION WILL BE CAPPED SO EVEN WITH A SUFFICIENT
AMOUNT OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SURFACE INSTABILITY...IT WILL
BE DIFFICULT FOR CONVECTION TO BE REALIZED.

THE BIG STORY WILL BE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES...WHICH LOOK TO CREST
AROUND 90 IN THE VALLEYS EACH DAY...MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S. AT THIS
POINT...DEWPOINTS LOOK TO ALSO BE IN THE 60S WHICH WOULD KEEP
APPARENT TEMPERATURES (WHICH IS THE WHAT THE TEMPERATURE FEELS WHEN
COMBINED WITH HUMIDITY) BELOW 100 DEGREES.

WE HAVE KEPT MOST DAYS COMPLETELY DRY. THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS MIGHT BE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THURSDAY BOTH THE EUROPEAN (ECWMF) AND GFS
INDICATED A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT (OR JUST A SURFACE TROUGH) PASSING
THROUGH WHICH MIGHT BREAK THE CAP AND TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY...THE GFS INDICATED SOME CONVECTION POSSIBLY THE RESULT OF AN
EASTERLY FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. THIS
SCENARIO COULD ADD A LITTLE MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND PERHAPS
WORKING WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THE ECMWF DOES NOT INDICATE THIS FEATURE ON FRIDAY
AS IT BUILD THE HIGH CLOSER TO OUR REGION WITH REALLY NOT MUCH FLOW
AT ALL AND PRODUCING MORE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION.

NOW...WE DECIDED TO INCLUDE 20 POPS BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT AT
NO OTHER TIME FRAME.

THE SKY WILL RANGE FROM SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE
DAY...MAINLY CLEAR AT NIGHT. THERE COULD BE PATCHY VALLEY FOG BUT
DID NOT INCLUDE IT DURING THE EXTENDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL GENERALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES
AWAY FROM OUR REGION. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF IFR FOG
LATE TONIGHT AT KPSF/GFL...ALTHOUGH IT WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON
HOW QUICKLY THE CLOUDS DEPART. KALB/KPOU COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD
OF MVFR BR AROUND SUNRISE...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO
CONTINUE AT THESE SITES. WINDS WILL BE CALM OVERNIGHT. ANY FOG
LOOKS TO DISSIPATE BY AROUND 12Z.

DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR
ALL TAF SITES WITH SCT CIRRUS CLOUDS AROUND. SOME SCT CU MAY
DEVELOP BY AFTN...MAINLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. SKIES WILL BECOME
SKC THIS EVENING WITH FOG DEVELOPING AT KGFL/KPSF AROUND 03Z.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME S-SW AT 5-10 KTS
ON MONDAY AND THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN MONDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
TUE: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECT FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

MOST OF THE REGION HAS NOT SEEN SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN OVER A
WEEK. THIS HAD LED TO THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX APPROACHING
300 IN OUR SOUTHERN MOST COUNTIES...AND LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO RISE
OVER THE DAYS TO COME.

WINDS DURING THE NEXT WEEK LOOK TO REMAIN CALM AT NIGHT AND
LIGHT DURING THE DAY...GENERALLY UNDER 10 MPH.

A FULL OR NEARLY FULL RECOVERY IS EXPECTED EACH OF THE NEXT
SEVERAL NIGHTS ALLOWING FOR THE FORMATION OF DEW.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE
MODERATE RANGE...40 TO 60 PERCENT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED AUGUST 27
THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST 29, 30
AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY.
DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS/KL
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...FRUGIS/11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KALY 310509
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
109 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THIS WEEK WILL BE HOT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS
THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. HIGHS MAINLY IN 80S ARE
EXPECTED MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH SOME 90S ANTICIPATED UP THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1245 AM EDT...A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF
THE REGION. HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS
SOUTHERN AREAS TO THE NORTH OF THIS DISTURBANCE. FURTHER N AND
W...OTHER THAN OCCASIONAL PATCHY MID LEVEL CLOUDS...SKIES ARE
BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR.

WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE MOVING AWAY...CLOUD COVER
WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH
SUNRISE...AND WITH WINDS BECOMING CALM AND DEW POINTS HOLDING IN
THE 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO
FORM...ESPECIALLY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS AND ANY AREAS WHICH RECEIVED
RAINFALL SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER
50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGING WILL BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT AND TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM. GUIDANCE INDICATES A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...HOWEVER MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED
AND THE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING EASTWARD.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY AROUND 10 DEGREES TO START THE
WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S MONDAY AND IN THE 80S
TUESDAY. DEW POINTS IN THE 60S WITH MAKE FOR HUMID/MUGGY CONDITIONS.

ALBANY`S LONGEST HEAT WAVE HAS OCCURRED DURING THIS TIME OF
YEAR...PLEASE REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR DETAILS AND FOR
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEK.

 &&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL LOOKS TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

H850 TEMPS LOOK TO AVERAGE BETWEEN +16C TO +18C THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
MOST OF THE TIME THE REGION WILL BE CAPPED SO EVEN WITH A SUFFICIENT
AMOUNT OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SURFACE INSTABILITY...IT WILL
BE DIFFICULT FOR CONVECTION TO BE REALIZED.

THE BIG STORY WILL BE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES...WHICH LOOK TO CREST
AROUND 90 IN THE VALLEYS EACH DAY...MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S. AT THIS
POINT...DEWPOINTS LOOK TO ALSO BE IN THE 60S WHICH WOULD KEEP
APPARENT TEMPERATURES (WHICH IS THE WHAT THE TEMPERATURE FEELS WHEN
COMBINED WITH HUMIDITY) BELOW 100 DEGREES.

WE HAVE KEPT MOST DAYS COMPLETELY DRY. THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS MIGHT BE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THURSDAY BOTH THE EUROPEAN (ECWMF) AND GFS
INDICATED A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT (OR JUST A SURFACE TROUGH) PASSING
THROUGH WHICH MIGHT BREAK THE CAP AND TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY...THE GFS INDICATED SOME CONVECTION POSSIBLY THE RESULT OF AN
EASTERLY FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. THIS
SCENARIO COULD ADD A LITTLE MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND PERHAPS
WORKING WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THE ECMWF DOES NOT INDICATE THIS FEATURE ON FRIDAY
AS IT BUILD THE HIGH CLOSER TO OUR REGION WITH REALLY NOT MUCH FLOW
AT ALL AND PRODUCING MORE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION.

NOW...WE DECIDED TO INCLUDE 20 POPS BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT AT
NO OTHER TIME FRAME.

THE SKY WILL RANGE FROM SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE
DAY...MAINLY CLEAR AT NIGHT. THERE COULD BE PATCHY VALLEY FOG BUT
DID NOT INCLUDE IT DURING THE EXTENDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL LOOKS TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

H850 TEMPS LOOK TO AVERAGE BETWEEN +16C TO +18C THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
MOST OF THE TIME THE REGION WILL BE CAPPED SO EVEN WITH A SUFFICIENT
AMOUNT OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SURFACE INSTABILITY...IT WILL
BE DIFFICULT FOR CONVECTION TO BE REALIZED.

THE BIG STORY WILL BE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES...WHICH LOOK TO CREST
AROUND 90 IN THE VALLEYS EACH DAY...MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S. AT THIS
POINT...DEWPOINTS LOOK TO ALSO BE IN THE 60S WHICH WOULD KEEP
APPARENT TEMPERATURES (WHICH IS THE WHAT THE TEMPERATURE FEELS WHEN
COMBINED WITH HUMIDITY) BELOW 100 DEGREES.

WE HAVE KEPT MOST DAYS COMPLETELY DRY. THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS MIGHT BE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THURSDAY BOTH THE EUROPEAN (ECWMF) AND GFS
INDICATED A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT (OR JUST A SURFACE TROUGH) PASSING
THROUGH WHICH MIGHT BREAK THE CAP AND TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY...THE GFS INDICATED SOME CONVECTION POSSIBLY THE RESULT OF AN
EASTERLY FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. THIS
SCENARIO COULD ADD A LITTLE MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND PERHAPS
WORKING WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THE ECMWF DOES NOT INDICATE THIS FEATURE ON FRIDAY
AS IT BUILD THE HIGH CLOSER TO OUR REGION WITH REALLY NOT MUCH FLOW
AT ALL AND PRODUCING MORE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION.

NOW...WE DECIDED TO INCLUDE 20 POPS BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT AT
NO OTHER TIME FRAME.

THE SKY WILL RANGE FROM SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE
DAY...MAINLY CLEAR AT NIGHT. THERE COULD BE PATCHY VALLEY FOG BUT
DID NOT INCLUDE IT DURING THE EXTENDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL GENERALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES
AWAY FROM OUR REGION. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF IFR FOG
LATE TONIGHT AT KPSF/GFL...ALTHOUGH IT WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON
HOW QUICKLY THE CLOUDS DEPART. KALB/KPOU COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD
OF MVFR BR AROUND SUNRISE...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO
CONTINUE AT THESE SITES. WINDS WILL BE CALM OVERNIGHT. ANY FOG
LOOKS TO DISSIPATE BY AROUND 12Z.

DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR
ALL TAF SITES WITH SCT CIRRUS CLOUDS AROUND. SOME SCT CU MAY
DEVELOP BY AFTN...MAINLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. SKIES WILL BECOME
SKC THIS EVENING WITH FOG DEVELOPING AT KGFL/KPSF AROUND 03Z.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME S-SW AT 5-10 KTS
ON MONDAY AND THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN MONDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
TUE: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECT FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

MOST OF THE REGION HAS NOT SEEN SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN OVER A
WEEK. THIS HAD LED TO THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX APPROACHING
300 IN OUR SOUTHERN MOST COUNTIES...AND LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO RISE
OVER THE DAYS TO COME.

WINDS DURING THE NEXT WEEK LOOK TO REMAIN CALM AT NIGHT AND
LIGHT DURING THE DAY...GENERALLY UNDER 10 MPH.

A FULL OR NEARLY FULL RECOVERY IS EXPECTED EACH OF THE NEXT
SEVERAL NIGHTS ALLOWING FOR THE FORMATION OF DEW.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE
MODERATE RANGE...40 TO 60 PERCENT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED AUGUST 27
THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST 29, 30
AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY.
DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS/KL
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...FRUGIS/11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KALY 310450
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1250 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THIS WEEK WILL BE HOT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS
THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. HIGHS MAINLY IN 80S ARE
EXPECTED MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH SOME 90S ANTICIPATED UP THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1245 AM EDT...A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF
THE REGION. HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS
SOUTHERN AREAS TO THE NORTH OF THIS DISTURBANCE. FURTHER N AND
W...OTHER THAN OCCASIONAL PATCHY MID LEVEL CLOUDS...SKIES ARE
BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR.

WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE MOVING AWAY...CLOUD COVER
WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH
SUNRISE...AND WITH WINDS BECOMING CALM AND DEW POINTS HOLDING IN
THE 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO
FORM...ESPECIALLY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS AND ANY AREAS WHICH RECEIVED
RAINFALL SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER
50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGING WILL BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT AND TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM. GUIDANCE INDICATES A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...HOWEVER MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED
AND THE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING EASTWARD.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY AROUND 10 DEGREES TO START THE
WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S MONDAY AND IN THE 80S
TUESDAY. DEW POINTS IN THE 60S WITH MAKE FOR HUMID/MUGGY CONDITIONS.

ALBANY`S LONGEST HEAT WAVE HAS OCCURRED DURING THIS TIME OF
YEAR...PLEASE REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR DETAILS AND FOR
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEK.

 &&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL LOOKS TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

H850 TEMPS LOOK TO AVERAGE BETWEEN +16C TO +18C THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
MOST OF THE TIME THE REGION WILL BE CAPPED SO EVEN WITH A SUFFICIENT
AMOUNT OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SURFACE INSTABILITY...IT WILL
BE DIFFICULT FOR CONVECTION TO BE REALIZED.

THE BIG STORY WILL BE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES...WHICH LOOK TO CREST
AROUND 90 IN THE VALLEYS EACH DAY...MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S. AT THIS
POINT...DEWPOINTS LOOK TO ALSO BE IN THE 60S WHICH WOULD KEEP
APPARENT TEMPERATURES (WHICH IS THE WHAT THE TEMPERATURE FEELS WHEN
COMBINED WITH HUMIDITY) BELOW 100 DEGREES.

WE HAVE KEPT MOST DAYS COMPLETELY DRY. THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS MIGHT BE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THURSDAY BOTH THE EUROPEAN (ECWMF) AND GFS
INDICATED A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT (OR JUST A SURFACE TROUGH) PASSING
THROUGH WHICH MIGHT BREAK THE CAP AND TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY...THE GFS INDICATED SOME CONVECTION POSSIBLY THE RESULT OF AN
EASTERLY FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. THIS
SCENARIO COULD ADD A LITTLE MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND PERHAPS
WORKING WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THE ECMWF DOES NOT INDICATE THIS FEATURE ON FRIDAY
AS IT BUILD THE HIGH CLOSER TO OUR REGION WITH REALLY NOT MUCH FLOW
AT ALL AND PRODUCING MORE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION.

NOW...WE DECIDED TO INCLUDE 20 POPS BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT AT
NO OTHER TIME FRAME.

THE SKY WILL RANGE FROM SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE
DAY...MAINLY CLEAR AT NIGHT. THERE COULD BE PATCHY VALLEY FOG BUT
DID NOT INCLUDE IT DURING THE EXTENDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL LOOKS TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

H850 TEMPS LOOK TO AVERAGE BETWEEN +16C TO +18C THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
MOST OF THE TIME THE REGION WILL BE CAPPED SO EVEN WITH A SUFFICIENT
AMOUNT OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SURFACE INSTABILITY...IT WILL
BE DIFFICULT FOR CONVECTION TO BE REALIZED.

THE BIG STORY WILL BE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES...WHICH LOOK TO CREST
AROUND 90 IN THE VALLEYS EACH DAY...MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S. AT THIS
POINT...DEWPOINTS LOOK TO ALSO BE IN THE 60S WHICH WOULD KEEP
APPARENT TEMPERATURES (WHICH IS THE WHAT THE TEMPERATURE FEELS WHEN
COMBINED WITH HUMIDITY) BELOW 100 DEGREES.

WE HAVE KEPT MOST DAYS COMPLETELY DRY. THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS MIGHT BE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THURSDAY BOTH THE EUROPEAN (ECWMF) AND GFS
INDICATED A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT (OR JUST A SURFACE TROUGH) PASSING
THROUGH WHICH MIGHT BREAK THE CAP AND TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY...THE GFS INDICATED SOME CONVECTION POSSIBLY THE RESULT OF AN
EASTERLY FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. THIS
SCENARIO COULD ADD A LITTLE MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND PERHAPS
WORKING WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THE ECMWF DOES NOT INDICATE THIS FEATURE ON FRIDAY
AS IT BUILD THE HIGH CLOSER TO OUR REGION WITH REALLY NOT MUCH FLOW
AT ALL AND PRODUCING MORE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION.

NOW...WE DECIDED TO INCLUDE 20 POPS BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT AT
NO OTHER TIME FRAME.

THE SKY WILL RANGE FROM SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE
DAY...MAINLY CLEAR AT NIGHT. THERE COULD BE PATCHY VALLEY FOG BUT
DID NOT INCLUDE IT DURING THE EXTENDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A DEPARTING NEARBY DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO ALLOW FOR CLOUDS
ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS AROUND 8-10
KFT. CLOUDS WILL GENERALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS THIS DISTURBANCE
MOVES AWAY. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF IFR FOG LATE TONIGHT
AT KPSF/GFL...ALTHOUGH IT WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY
THE CLOUDS DEPART. KALB/KPOU COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR BR
AROUND SUNRISE...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE AT
THESE SITES. WINDS WILL BE CALM OVERNIGHT. ANY FOG LOOKS TO
DISSIPATE BY AROUND 12Z.

DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR ALL
TAF SITES WITH SCT CIRRUS CLOUDS AROUND. SOME SCT CU MAY DEVELOP
BY AFTN...MAINLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. S-SW WINDS WILL BE AROUND
5-10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
TUE: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECT FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

MOST OF THE REGION HAS NOT SEEN SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN OVER A
WEEK. THIS HAD LED TO THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX APPROACHING
300 IN OUR SOUTHERN MOST COUNTIES...AND LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO RISE
OVER THE DAYS TO COME.

WINDS DURING THE NEXT WEEK LOOK TO REMAIN CALM AT NIGHT AND
LIGHT DURING THE DAY...GENERALLY UNDER 10 MPH.

A FULL OR NEARLY FULL RECOVERY IS EXPECTED EACH OF THE NEXT
SEVERAL NIGHTS ALLOWING FOR THE FORMATION OF DEW.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE
MODERATE RANGE...40 TO 60 PERCENT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED AUGUST 27
THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST 29, 30
AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY.
DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS/KL
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KALY 310450
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1250 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THIS WEEK WILL BE HOT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS
THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. HIGHS MAINLY IN 80S ARE
EXPECTED MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH SOME 90S ANTICIPATED UP THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1245 AM EDT...A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF
THE REGION. HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS
SOUTHERN AREAS TO THE NORTH OF THIS DISTURBANCE. FURTHER N AND
W...OTHER THAN OCCASIONAL PATCHY MID LEVEL CLOUDS...SKIES ARE
BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR.

WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE MOVING AWAY...CLOUD COVER
WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH
SUNRISE...AND WITH WINDS BECOMING CALM AND DEW POINTS HOLDING IN
THE 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO
FORM...ESPECIALLY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS AND ANY AREAS WHICH RECEIVED
RAINFALL SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER
50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGING WILL BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT AND TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM. GUIDANCE INDICATES A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...HOWEVER MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED
AND THE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING EASTWARD.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY AROUND 10 DEGREES TO START THE
WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S MONDAY AND IN THE 80S
TUESDAY. DEW POINTS IN THE 60S WITH MAKE FOR HUMID/MUGGY CONDITIONS.

ALBANY`S LONGEST HEAT WAVE HAS OCCURRED DURING THIS TIME OF
YEAR...PLEASE REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR DETAILS AND FOR
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEK.

 &&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL LOOKS TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

H850 TEMPS LOOK TO AVERAGE BETWEEN +16C TO +18C THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
MOST OF THE TIME THE REGION WILL BE CAPPED SO EVEN WITH A SUFFICIENT
AMOUNT OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SURFACE INSTABILITY...IT WILL
BE DIFFICULT FOR CONVECTION TO BE REALIZED.

THE BIG STORY WILL BE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES...WHICH LOOK TO CREST
AROUND 90 IN THE VALLEYS EACH DAY...MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S. AT THIS
POINT...DEWPOINTS LOOK TO ALSO BE IN THE 60S WHICH WOULD KEEP
APPARENT TEMPERATURES (WHICH IS THE WHAT THE TEMPERATURE FEELS WHEN
COMBINED WITH HUMIDITY) BELOW 100 DEGREES.

WE HAVE KEPT MOST DAYS COMPLETELY DRY. THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS MIGHT BE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THURSDAY BOTH THE EUROPEAN (ECWMF) AND GFS
INDICATED A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT (OR JUST A SURFACE TROUGH) PASSING
THROUGH WHICH MIGHT BREAK THE CAP AND TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY...THE GFS INDICATED SOME CONVECTION POSSIBLY THE RESULT OF AN
EASTERLY FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. THIS
SCENARIO COULD ADD A LITTLE MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND PERHAPS
WORKING WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THE ECMWF DOES NOT INDICATE THIS FEATURE ON FRIDAY
AS IT BUILD THE HIGH CLOSER TO OUR REGION WITH REALLY NOT MUCH FLOW
AT ALL AND PRODUCING MORE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION.

NOW...WE DECIDED TO INCLUDE 20 POPS BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT AT
NO OTHER TIME FRAME.

THE SKY WILL RANGE FROM SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE
DAY...MAINLY CLEAR AT NIGHT. THERE COULD BE PATCHY VALLEY FOG BUT
DID NOT INCLUDE IT DURING THE EXTENDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL LOOKS TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

H850 TEMPS LOOK TO AVERAGE BETWEEN +16C TO +18C THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
MOST OF THE TIME THE REGION WILL BE CAPPED SO EVEN WITH A SUFFICIENT
AMOUNT OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SURFACE INSTABILITY...IT WILL
BE DIFFICULT FOR CONVECTION TO BE REALIZED.

THE BIG STORY WILL BE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES...WHICH LOOK TO CREST
AROUND 90 IN THE VALLEYS EACH DAY...MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S. AT THIS
POINT...DEWPOINTS LOOK TO ALSO BE IN THE 60S WHICH WOULD KEEP
APPARENT TEMPERATURES (WHICH IS THE WHAT THE TEMPERATURE FEELS WHEN
COMBINED WITH HUMIDITY) BELOW 100 DEGREES.

WE HAVE KEPT MOST DAYS COMPLETELY DRY. THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS MIGHT BE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THURSDAY BOTH THE EUROPEAN (ECWMF) AND GFS
INDICATED A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT (OR JUST A SURFACE TROUGH) PASSING
THROUGH WHICH MIGHT BREAK THE CAP AND TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY...THE GFS INDICATED SOME CONVECTION POSSIBLY THE RESULT OF AN
EASTERLY FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. THIS
SCENARIO COULD ADD A LITTLE MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND PERHAPS
WORKING WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THE ECMWF DOES NOT INDICATE THIS FEATURE ON FRIDAY
AS IT BUILD THE HIGH CLOSER TO OUR REGION WITH REALLY NOT MUCH FLOW
AT ALL AND PRODUCING MORE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION.

NOW...WE DECIDED TO INCLUDE 20 POPS BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT AT
NO OTHER TIME FRAME.

THE SKY WILL RANGE FROM SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE
DAY...MAINLY CLEAR AT NIGHT. THERE COULD BE PATCHY VALLEY FOG BUT
DID NOT INCLUDE IT DURING THE EXTENDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A DEPARTING NEARBY DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO ALLOW FOR CLOUDS
ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS AROUND 8-10
KFT. CLOUDS WILL GENERALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS THIS DISTURBANCE
MOVES AWAY. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF IFR FOG LATE TONIGHT
AT KPSF/GFL...ALTHOUGH IT WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY
THE CLOUDS DEPART. KALB/KPOU COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR BR
AROUND SUNRISE...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE AT
THESE SITES. WINDS WILL BE CALM OVERNIGHT. ANY FOG LOOKS TO
DISSIPATE BY AROUND 12Z.

DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR ALL
TAF SITES WITH SCT CIRRUS CLOUDS AROUND. SOME SCT CU MAY DEVELOP
BY AFTN...MAINLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. S-SW WINDS WILL BE AROUND
5-10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
TUE: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECT FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

MOST OF THE REGION HAS NOT SEEN SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN OVER A
WEEK. THIS HAD LED TO THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX APPROACHING
300 IN OUR SOUTHERN MOST COUNTIES...AND LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO RISE
OVER THE DAYS TO COME.

WINDS DURING THE NEXT WEEK LOOK TO REMAIN CALM AT NIGHT AND
LIGHT DURING THE DAY...GENERALLY UNDER 10 MPH.

A FULL OR NEARLY FULL RECOVERY IS EXPECTED EACH OF THE NEXT
SEVERAL NIGHTS ALLOWING FOR THE FORMATION OF DEW.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE
MODERATE RANGE...40 TO 60 PERCENT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED AUGUST 27
THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST 29, 30
AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY.
DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS/KL
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KALY 310450
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1250 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THIS WEEK WILL BE HOT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS
THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. HIGHS MAINLY IN 80S ARE
EXPECTED MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH SOME 90S ANTICIPATED UP THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1245 AM EDT...A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF
THE REGION. HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS
SOUTHERN AREAS TO THE NORTH OF THIS DISTURBANCE. FURTHER N AND
W...OTHER THAN OCCASIONAL PATCHY MID LEVEL CLOUDS...SKIES ARE
BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR.

WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE MOVING AWAY...CLOUD COVER
WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH
SUNRISE...AND WITH WINDS BECOMING CALM AND DEW POINTS HOLDING IN
THE 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO
FORM...ESPECIALLY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS AND ANY AREAS WHICH RECEIVED
RAINFALL SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER
50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGING WILL BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT AND TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM. GUIDANCE INDICATES A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...HOWEVER MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED
AND THE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING EASTWARD.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY AROUND 10 DEGREES TO START THE
WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S MONDAY AND IN THE 80S
TUESDAY. DEW POINTS IN THE 60S WITH MAKE FOR HUMID/MUGGY CONDITIONS.

ALBANY`S LONGEST HEAT WAVE HAS OCCURRED DURING THIS TIME OF
YEAR...PLEASE REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR DETAILS AND FOR
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEK.

 &&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL LOOKS TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

H850 TEMPS LOOK TO AVERAGE BETWEEN +16C TO +18C THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
MOST OF THE TIME THE REGION WILL BE CAPPED SO EVEN WITH A SUFFICIENT
AMOUNT OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SURFACE INSTABILITY...IT WILL
BE DIFFICULT FOR CONVECTION TO BE REALIZED.

THE BIG STORY WILL BE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES...WHICH LOOK TO CREST
AROUND 90 IN THE VALLEYS EACH DAY...MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S. AT THIS
POINT...DEWPOINTS LOOK TO ALSO BE IN THE 60S WHICH WOULD KEEP
APPARENT TEMPERATURES (WHICH IS THE WHAT THE TEMPERATURE FEELS WHEN
COMBINED WITH HUMIDITY) BELOW 100 DEGREES.

WE HAVE KEPT MOST DAYS COMPLETELY DRY. THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS MIGHT BE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THURSDAY BOTH THE EUROPEAN (ECWMF) AND GFS
INDICATED A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT (OR JUST A SURFACE TROUGH) PASSING
THROUGH WHICH MIGHT BREAK THE CAP AND TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY...THE GFS INDICATED SOME CONVECTION POSSIBLY THE RESULT OF AN
EASTERLY FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. THIS
SCENARIO COULD ADD A LITTLE MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND PERHAPS
WORKING WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THE ECMWF DOES NOT INDICATE THIS FEATURE ON FRIDAY
AS IT BUILD THE HIGH CLOSER TO OUR REGION WITH REALLY NOT MUCH FLOW
AT ALL AND PRODUCING MORE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION.

NOW...WE DECIDED TO INCLUDE 20 POPS BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT AT
NO OTHER TIME FRAME.

THE SKY WILL RANGE FROM SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE
DAY...MAINLY CLEAR AT NIGHT. THERE COULD BE PATCHY VALLEY FOG BUT
DID NOT INCLUDE IT DURING THE EXTENDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL LOOKS TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

H850 TEMPS LOOK TO AVERAGE BETWEEN +16C TO +18C THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
MOST OF THE TIME THE REGION WILL BE CAPPED SO EVEN WITH A SUFFICIENT
AMOUNT OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SURFACE INSTABILITY...IT WILL
BE DIFFICULT FOR CONVECTION TO BE REALIZED.

THE BIG STORY WILL BE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES...WHICH LOOK TO CREST
AROUND 90 IN THE VALLEYS EACH DAY...MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S. AT THIS
POINT...DEWPOINTS LOOK TO ALSO BE IN THE 60S WHICH WOULD KEEP
APPARENT TEMPERATURES (WHICH IS THE WHAT THE TEMPERATURE FEELS WHEN
COMBINED WITH HUMIDITY) BELOW 100 DEGREES.

WE HAVE KEPT MOST DAYS COMPLETELY DRY. THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS MIGHT BE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THURSDAY BOTH THE EUROPEAN (ECWMF) AND GFS
INDICATED A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT (OR JUST A SURFACE TROUGH) PASSING
THROUGH WHICH MIGHT BREAK THE CAP AND TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY...THE GFS INDICATED SOME CONVECTION POSSIBLY THE RESULT OF AN
EASTERLY FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. THIS
SCENARIO COULD ADD A LITTLE MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND PERHAPS
WORKING WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THE ECMWF DOES NOT INDICATE THIS FEATURE ON FRIDAY
AS IT BUILD THE HIGH CLOSER TO OUR REGION WITH REALLY NOT MUCH FLOW
AT ALL AND PRODUCING MORE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION.

NOW...WE DECIDED TO INCLUDE 20 POPS BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT AT
NO OTHER TIME FRAME.

THE SKY WILL RANGE FROM SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE
DAY...MAINLY CLEAR AT NIGHT. THERE COULD BE PATCHY VALLEY FOG BUT
DID NOT INCLUDE IT DURING THE EXTENDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A DEPARTING NEARBY DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO ALLOW FOR CLOUDS
ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS AROUND 8-10
KFT. CLOUDS WILL GENERALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS THIS DISTURBANCE
MOVES AWAY. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF IFR FOG LATE TONIGHT
AT KPSF/GFL...ALTHOUGH IT WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY
THE CLOUDS DEPART. KALB/KPOU COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR BR
AROUND SUNRISE...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE AT
THESE SITES. WINDS WILL BE CALM OVERNIGHT. ANY FOG LOOKS TO
DISSIPATE BY AROUND 12Z.

DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR ALL
TAF SITES WITH SCT CIRRUS CLOUDS AROUND. SOME SCT CU MAY DEVELOP
BY AFTN...MAINLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. S-SW WINDS WILL BE AROUND
5-10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
TUE: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECT FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

MOST OF THE REGION HAS NOT SEEN SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN OVER A
WEEK. THIS HAD LED TO THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX APPROACHING
300 IN OUR SOUTHERN MOST COUNTIES...AND LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO RISE
OVER THE DAYS TO COME.

WINDS DURING THE NEXT WEEK LOOK TO REMAIN CALM AT NIGHT AND
LIGHT DURING THE DAY...GENERALLY UNDER 10 MPH.

A FULL OR NEARLY FULL RECOVERY IS EXPECTED EACH OF THE NEXT
SEVERAL NIGHTS ALLOWING FOR THE FORMATION OF DEW.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE
MODERATE RANGE...40 TO 60 PERCENT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED AUGUST 27
THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST 29, 30
AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY.
DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS/KL
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KALY 310450
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1250 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THIS WEEK WILL BE HOT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS
THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. HIGHS MAINLY IN 80S ARE
EXPECTED MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH SOME 90S ANTICIPATED UP THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1245 AM EDT...A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF
THE REGION. HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS
SOUTHERN AREAS TO THE NORTH OF THIS DISTURBANCE. FURTHER N AND
W...OTHER THAN OCCASIONAL PATCHY MID LEVEL CLOUDS...SKIES ARE
BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR.

WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE MOVING AWAY...CLOUD COVER
WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH
SUNRISE...AND WITH WINDS BECOMING CALM AND DEW POINTS HOLDING IN
THE 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO
FORM...ESPECIALLY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS AND ANY AREAS WHICH RECEIVED
RAINFALL SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER
50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGING WILL BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT AND TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM. GUIDANCE INDICATES A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...HOWEVER MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED
AND THE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING EASTWARD.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY AROUND 10 DEGREES TO START THE
WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S MONDAY AND IN THE 80S
TUESDAY. DEW POINTS IN THE 60S WITH MAKE FOR HUMID/MUGGY CONDITIONS.

ALBANY`S LONGEST HEAT WAVE HAS OCCURRED DURING THIS TIME OF
YEAR...PLEASE REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR DETAILS AND FOR
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEK.

 &&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL LOOKS TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

H850 TEMPS LOOK TO AVERAGE BETWEEN +16C TO +18C THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
MOST OF THE TIME THE REGION WILL BE CAPPED SO EVEN WITH A SUFFICIENT
AMOUNT OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SURFACE INSTABILITY...IT WILL
BE DIFFICULT FOR CONVECTION TO BE REALIZED.

THE BIG STORY WILL BE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES...WHICH LOOK TO CREST
AROUND 90 IN THE VALLEYS EACH DAY...MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S. AT THIS
POINT...DEWPOINTS LOOK TO ALSO BE IN THE 60S WHICH WOULD KEEP
APPARENT TEMPERATURES (WHICH IS THE WHAT THE TEMPERATURE FEELS WHEN
COMBINED WITH HUMIDITY) BELOW 100 DEGREES.

WE HAVE KEPT MOST DAYS COMPLETELY DRY. THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS MIGHT BE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THURSDAY BOTH THE EUROPEAN (ECWMF) AND GFS
INDICATED A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT (OR JUST A SURFACE TROUGH) PASSING
THROUGH WHICH MIGHT BREAK THE CAP AND TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY...THE GFS INDICATED SOME CONVECTION POSSIBLY THE RESULT OF AN
EASTERLY FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. THIS
SCENARIO COULD ADD A LITTLE MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND PERHAPS
WORKING WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THE ECMWF DOES NOT INDICATE THIS FEATURE ON FRIDAY
AS IT BUILD THE HIGH CLOSER TO OUR REGION WITH REALLY NOT MUCH FLOW
AT ALL AND PRODUCING MORE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION.

NOW...WE DECIDED TO INCLUDE 20 POPS BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT AT
NO OTHER TIME FRAME.

THE SKY WILL RANGE FROM SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE
DAY...MAINLY CLEAR AT NIGHT. THERE COULD BE PATCHY VALLEY FOG BUT
DID NOT INCLUDE IT DURING THE EXTENDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL LOOKS TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

H850 TEMPS LOOK TO AVERAGE BETWEEN +16C TO +18C THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
MOST OF THE TIME THE REGION WILL BE CAPPED SO EVEN WITH A SUFFICIENT
AMOUNT OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SURFACE INSTABILITY...IT WILL
BE DIFFICULT FOR CONVECTION TO BE REALIZED.

THE BIG STORY WILL BE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES...WHICH LOOK TO CREST
AROUND 90 IN THE VALLEYS EACH DAY...MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S. AT THIS
POINT...DEWPOINTS LOOK TO ALSO BE IN THE 60S WHICH WOULD KEEP
APPARENT TEMPERATURES (WHICH IS THE WHAT THE TEMPERATURE FEELS WHEN
COMBINED WITH HUMIDITY) BELOW 100 DEGREES.

WE HAVE KEPT MOST DAYS COMPLETELY DRY. THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS MIGHT BE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THURSDAY BOTH THE EUROPEAN (ECWMF) AND GFS
INDICATED A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT (OR JUST A SURFACE TROUGH) PASSING
THROUGH WHICH MIGHT BREAK THE CAP AND TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY...THE GFS INDICATED SOME CONVECTION POSSIBLY THE RESULT OF AN
EASTERLY FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. THIS
SCENARIO COULD ADD A LITTLE MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND PERHAPS
WORKING WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THE ECMWF DOES NOT INDICATE THIS FEATURE ON FRIDAY
AS IT BUILD THE HIGH CLOSER TO OUR REGION WITH REALLY NOT MUCH FLOW
AT ALL AND PRODUCING MORE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION.

NOW...WE DECIDED TO INCLUDE 20 POPS BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT AT
NO OTHER TIME FRAME.

THE SKY WILL RANGE FROM SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE
DAY...MAINLY CLEAR AT NIGHT. THERE COULD BE PATCHY VALLEY FOG BUT
DID NOT INCLUDE IT DURING THE EXTENDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A DEPARTING NEARBY DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO ALLOW FOR CLOUDS
ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS AROUND 8-10
KFT. CLOUDS WILL GENERALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS THIS DISTURBANCE
MOVES AWAY. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF IFR FOG LATE TONIGHT
AT KPSF/GFL...ALTHOUGH IT WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY
THE CLOUDS DEPART. KALB/KPOU COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR BR
AROUND SUNRISE...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE AT
THESE SITES. WINDS WILL BE CALM OVERNIGHT. ANY FOG LOOKS TO
DISSIPATE BY AROUND 12Z.

DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR ALL
TAF SITES WITH SCT CIRRUS CLOUDS AROUND. SOME SCT CU MAY DEVELOP
BY AFTN...MAINLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. S-SW WINDS WILL BE AROUND
5-10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
TUE: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECT FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

MOST OF THE REGION HAS NOT SEEN SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN OVER A
WEEK. THIS HAD LED TO THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX APPROACHING
300 IN OUR SOUTHERN MOST COUNTIES...AND LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO RISE
OVER THE DAYS TO COME.

WINDS DURING THE NEXT WEEK LOOK TO REMAIN CALM AT NIGHT AND
LIGHT DURING THE DAY...GENERALLY UNDER 10 MPH.

A FULL OR NEARLY FULL RECOVERY IS EXPECTED EACH OF THE NEXT
SEVERAL NIGHTS ALLOWING FOR THE FORMATION OF DEW.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE
MODERATE RANGE...40 TO 60 PERCENT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED AUGUST 27
THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST 29, 30
AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY.
DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS/KL
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KALY 310217
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1017 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THIS WEEK WILL BE HOT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS
THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. HIGHS MAINLY IN 80S ARE
EXPECTED MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH SOME 90S ANTICIPATED UP THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1017 PM EDT...A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF
THE REGION. ANY SHOWERS THAT OCCURRED ACROSS OUR AREA EARLIER
TODAY AS A RESULT OF THIS SYSTEM HAVE DISSIPATED DUE TO THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING.

WITH THE DISTURBANCE MOVING AWAY...CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE
TONIGHT AND WITH WINDS BECOMING CALM AND DEW POINTS INTO THE 60S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM
ESPECIALLY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. LOWS TONIGHT ARE FORECAST A BIT
WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT...IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGING WILL BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT AND TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM. GUIDANCE INDICATES A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...HOWEVER MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED
AND THE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING EASTWARD.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY AROUND 10 DEGREES TO START THE
WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S MONDAY AND IN THE 80S
TUESDAY. DEW POINTS IN THE 60S WITH MAKE FOR HUMID/MUGGY CONDITIONS.

ALBANY`S LONGEST HEAT WAVE HAS OCCURRED DURING THIS TIME OF
YEAR...PLEASE REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR DETAILS AND FOR
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEK.

 &&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL LOOKS TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

H850 TEMPS LOOK TO AVERAGE BETWEEN +16C TO +18C THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
MOST OF THE TIME THE REGION WILL BE CAPPED SO EVEN WITH A SUFFICIENT
AMOUNT OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SURFACE INSTABILITY...IT WILL
BE DIFFICULT FOR CONVECTION TO BE REALIZED.

THE BIG STORY WILL BE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES...WHICH LOOK TO CREST
AROUND 90 IN THE VALLEYS EACH DAY...MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S. AT THIS
POINT...DEWPOINTS LOOK TO ALSO BE IN THE 60S WHICH WOULD KEEP
APPARENT TEMPERATURES (WHICH IS THE WHAT THE TEMPERATURE FEELS WHEN
COMBINED WITH HUMIDITY) BELOW 100 DEGREES.

WE HAVE KEPT MOST DAYS COMPLETELY DRY. THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS MIGHT BE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THURSDAY BOTH THE EUROPEAN (ECWMF) AND GFS
INDICATED A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT (OR JUST A SURFACE TROUGH) PASSING
THROUGH WHICH MIGHT BREAK THE CAP AND TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY...THE GFS INDICATED SOME CONVECTION POSSIBLY THE RESULT OF AN
EASTERLY FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. THIS
SCENARIO COULD ADD A LITTLE MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND PERHAPS
WORKING WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THE ECMWF DOES NOT INDICATE THIS FEATURE ON FRIDAY
AS IT BUILD THE HIGH CLOSER TO OUR REGION WITH REALLY NOT MUCH FLOW
AT ALL AND PRODUCING MORE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION.

NOW...WE DECIDED TO INCLUDE 20 POPS BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT AT
NO OTHER TIME FRAME.

THE SKY WILL RANGE FROM SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE
DAY...MAINLY CLEAR AT NIGHT. THERE COULD BE PATCHY VALLEY FOG BUT
DID NOT INCLUDE IT DURING THE EXTENDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL LOOKS TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

H850 TEMPS LOOK TO AVERAGE BETWEEN +16C TO +18C THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
MOST OF THE TIME THE REGION WILL BE CAPPED SO EVEN WITH A SUFFICIENT
AMOUNT OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SURFACE INSTABILITY...IT WILL
BE DIFFICULT FOR CONVECTION TO BE REALIZED.

THE BIG STORY WILL BE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES...WHICH LOOK TO CREST
AROUND 90 IN THE VALLEYS EACH DAY...MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S. AT THIS
POINT...DEWPOINTS LOOK TO ALSO BE IN THE 60S WHICH WOULD KEEP
APPARENT TEMPERATURES (WHICH IS THE WHAT THE TEMPERATURE FEELS WHEN
COMBINED WITH HUMIDITY) BELOW 100 DEGREES.

WE HAVE KEPT MOST DAYS COMPLETELY DRY. THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS MIGHT BE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THURSDAY BOTH THE EUROPEAN (ECWMF) AND GFS
INDICATED A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT (OR JUST A SURFACE TROUGH) PASSING
THROUGH WHICH MIGHT BREAK THE CAP AND TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY...THE GFS INDICATED SOME CONVECTION POSSIBLY THE RESULT OF AN
EASTERLY FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. THIS
SCENARIO COULD ADD A LITTLE MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND PERHAPS
WORKING WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THE ECMWF DOES NOT INDICATE THIS FEATURE ON FRIDAY
AS IT BUILD THE HIGH CLOSER TO OUR REGION WITH REALLY NOT MUCH FLOW
AT ALL AND PRODUCING MORE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION.

NOW...WE DECIDED TO INCLUDE 20 POPS BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT AT
NO OTHER TIME FRAME.

THE SKY WILL RANGE FROM SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE
DAY...MAINLY CLEAR AT NIGHT. THERE COULD BE PATCHY VALLEY FOG BUT
DID NOT INCLUDE IT DURING THE EXTENDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A DEPARTING NEARBY DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO ALLOW FOR CLOUDS
ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS AROUND 8-10
KFT. CLOUDS WILL GENERALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS THIS DISTURBANCE
MOVES AWAY. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF IFR FOG LATE TONIGHT
AT KPSF/GFL...ALTHOUGH IT WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY
THE CLOUDS DEPART. KALB/KPOU COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR BR
AROUND SUNRISE...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE AT
THESE SITES. WINDS WILL BE CALM OVERNIGHT. ANY FOG LOOKS TO
DISSIPATE BY AROUND 12Z.

DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR ALL
TAF SITES WITH SCT CIRRUS CLOUDS AROUND. SOME SCT CU MAY DEVELOP
BY AFTN...MAINLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. S-SW WINDS WILL BE AROUND
5-10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
TUE: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECT FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

MOST OF THE REGION HAS NOT SEEN SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN OVER A
WEEK. THIS HAD LED TO THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX APPROACHING
300 IN OUR SOUTHERN MOST COUNTIES...AND LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO RISE
OVER THE DAYS TO COME.

WINDS DURING THE NEXT WEEK LOOK TO REMAIN CALM AT NIGHT AND
LIGHT DURING THE DAY...GENERALLY UNDER 10 MPH.

A FULL OR NEARLY FULL RECOVERY IS EXPECTED EACH OF THE NEXT
SEVERAL NIGHTS ALLOWING FOR THE FORMATION OF DEW.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE
MODERATE RANGE...40 TO 60 PERCENT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED AUGUST 27
THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST 29, 30
AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY.
DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 310217
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1017 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THIS WEEK WILL BE HOT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS
THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. HIGHS MAINLY IN 80S ARE
EXPECTED MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH SOME 90S ANTICIPATED UP THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1017 PM EDT...A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF
THE REGION. ANY SHOWERS THAT OCCURRED ACROSS OUR AREA EARLIER
TODAY AS A RESULT OF THIS SYSTEM HAVE DISSIPATED DUE TO THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING.

WITH THE DISTURBANCE MOVING AWAY...CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE
TONIGHT AND WITH WINDS BECOMING CALM AND DEW POINTS INTO THE 60S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM
ESPECIALLY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. LOWS TONIGHT ARE FORECAST A BIT
WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT...IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGING WILL BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT AND TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM. GUIDANCE INDICATES A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...HOWEVER MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED
AND THE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING EASTWARD.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY AROUND 10 DEGREES TO START THE
WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S MONDAY AND IN THE 80S
TUESDAY. DEW POINTS IN THE 60S WITH MAKE FOR HUMID/MUGGY CONDITIONS.

ALBANY`S LONGEST HEAT WAVE HAS OCCURRED DURING THIS TIME OF
YEAR...PLEASE REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR DETAILS AND FOR
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEK.

 &&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL LOOKS TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

H850 TEMPS LOOK TO AVERAGE BETWEEN +16C TO +18C THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
MOST OF THE TIME THE REGION WILL BE CAPPED SO EVEN WITH A SUFFICIENT
AMOUNT OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SURFACE INSTABILITY...IT WILL
BE DIFFICULT FOR CONVECTION TO BE REALIZED.

THE BIG STORY WILL BE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES...WHICH LOOK TO CREST
AROUND 90 IN THE VALLEYS EACH DAY...MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S. AT THIS
POINT...DEWPOINTS LOOK TO ALSO BE IN THE 60S WHICH WOULD KEEP
APPARENT TEMPERATURES (WHICH IS THE WHAT THE TEMPERATURE FEELS WHEN
COMBINED WITH HUMIDITY) BELOW 100 DEGREES.

WE HAVE KEPT MOST DAYS COMPLETELY DRY. THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS MIGHT BE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THURSDAY BOTH THE EUROPEAN (ECWMF) AND GFS
INDICATED A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT (OR JUST A SURFACE TROUGH) PASSING
THROUGH WHICH MIGHT BREAK THE CAP AND TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY...THE GFS INDICATED SOME CONVECTION POSSIBLY THE RESULT OF AN
EASTERLY FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. THIS
SCENARIO COULD ADD A LITTLE MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND PERHAPS
WORKING WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THE ECMWF DOES NOT INDICATE THIS FEATURE ON FRIDAY
AS IT BUILD THE HIGH CLOSER TO OUR REGION WITH REALLY NOT MUCH FLOW
AT ALL AND PRODUCING MORE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION.

NOW...WE DECIDED TO INCLUDE 20 POPS BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT AT
NO OTHER TIME FRAME.

THE SKY WILL RANGE FROM SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE
DAY...MAINLY CLEAR AT NIGHT. THERE COULD BE PATCHY VALLEY FOG BUT
DID NOT INCLUDE IT DURING THE EXTENDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL LOOKS TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

H850 TEMPS LOOK TO AVERAGE BETWEEN +16C TO +18C THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
MOST OF THE TIME THE REGION WILL BE CAPPED SO EVEN WITH A SUFFICIENT
AMOUNT OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SURFACE INSTABILITY...IT WILL
BE DIFFICULT FOR CONVECTION TO BE REALIZED.

THE BIG STORY WILL BE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES...WHICH LOOK TO CREST
AROUND 90 IN THE VALLEYS EACH DAY...MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S. AT THIS
POINT...DEWPOINTS LOOK TO ALSO BE IN THE 60S WHICH WOULD KEEP
APPARENT TEMPERATURES (WHICH IS THE WHAT THE TEMPERATURE FEELS WHEN
COMBINED WITH HUMIDITY) BELOW 100 DEGREES.

WE HAVE KEPT MOST DAYS COMPLETELY DRY. THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS MIGHT BE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THURSDAY BOTH THE EUROPEAN (ECWMF) AND GFS
INDICATED A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT (OR JUST A SURFACE TROUGH) PASSING
THROUGH WHICH MIGHT BREAK THE CAP AND TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY...THE GFS INDICATED SOME CONVECTION POSSIBLY THE RESULT OF AN
EASTERLY FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. THIS
SCENARIO COULD ADD A LITTLE MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND PERHAPS
WORKING WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THE ECMWF DOES NOT INDICATE THIS FEATURE ON FRIDAY
AS IT BUILD THE HIGH CLOSER TO OUR REGION WITH REALLY NOT MUCH FLOW
AT ALL AND PRODUCING MORE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION.

NOW...WE DECIDED TO INCLUDE 20 POPS BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT AT
NO OTHER TIME FRAME.

THE SKY WILL RANGE FROM SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE
DAY...MAINLY CLEAR AT NIGHT. THERE COULD BE PATCHY VALLEY FOG BUT
DID NOT INCLUDE IT DURING THE EXTENDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A DEPARTING NEARBY DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO ALLOW FOR CLOUDS
ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS AROUND 8-10
KFT. CLOUDS WILL GENERALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS THIS DISTURBANCE
MOVES AWAY. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF IFR FOG LATE TONIGHT
AT KPSF/GFL...ALTHOUGH IT WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY
THE CLOUDS DEPART. KALB/KPOU COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR BR
AROUND SUNRISE...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE AT
THESE SITES. WINDS WILL BE CALM OVERNIGHT. ANY FOG LOOKS TO
DISSIPATE BY AROUND 12Z.

DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR ALL
TAF SITES WITH SCT CIRRUS CLOUDS AROUND. SOME SCT CU MAY DEVELOP
BY AFTN...MAINLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. S-SW WINDS WILL BE AROUND
5-10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
TUE: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECT FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

MOST OF THE REGION HAS NOT SEEN SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN OVER A
WEEK. THIS HAD LED TO THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX APPROACHING
300 IN OUR SOUTHERN MOST COUNTIES...AND LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO RISE
OVER THE DAYS TO COME.

WINDS DURING THE NEXT WEEK LOOK TO REMAIN CALM AT NIGHT AND
LIGHT DURING THE DAY...GENERALLY UNDER 10 MPH.

A FULL OR NEARLY FULL RECOVERY IS EXPECTED EACH OF THE NEXT
SEVERAL NIGHTS ALLOWING FOR THE FORMATION OF DEW.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE
MODERATE RANGE...40 TO 60 PERCENT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED AUGUST 27
THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST 29, 30
AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY.
DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...IAA



000
FXUS61 KALY 310217
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1017 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THIS WEEK WILL BE HOT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS
THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. HIGHS MAINLY IN 80S ARE
EXPECTED MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH SOME 90S ANTICIPATED UP THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1017 PM EDT...A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF
THE REGION. ANY SHOWERS THAT OCCURRED ACROSS OUR AREA EARLIER
TODAY AS A RESULT OF THIS SYSTEM HAVE DISSIPATED DUE TO THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING.

WITH THE DISTURBANCE MOVING AWAY...CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE
TONIGHT AND WITH WINDS BECOMING CALM AND DEW POINTS INTO THE 60S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM
ESPECIALLY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. LOWS TONIGHT ARE FORECAST A BIT
WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT...IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGING WILL BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT AND TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM. GUIDANCE INDICATES A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...HOWEVER MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED
AND THE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING EASTWARD.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY AROUND 10 DEGREES TO START THE
WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S MONDAY AND IN THE 80S
TUESDAY. DEW POINTS IN THE 60S WITH MAKE FOR HUMID/MUGGY CONDITIONS.

ALBANY`S LONGEST HEAT WAVE HAS OCCURRED DURING THIS TIME OF
YEAR...PLEASE REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR DETAILS AND FOR
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEK.

 &&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL LOOKS TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

H850 TEMPS LOOK TO AVERAGE BETWEEN +16C TO +18C THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
MOST OF THE TIME THE REGION WILL BE CAPPED SO EVEN WITH A SUFFICIENT
AMOUNT OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SURFACE INSTABILITY...IT WILL
BE DIFFICULT FOR CONVECTION TO BE REALIZED.

THE BIG STORY WILL BE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES...WHICH LOOK TO CREST
AROUND 90 IN THE VALLEYS EACH DAY...MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S. AT THIS
POINT...DEWPOINTS LOOK TO ALSO BE IN THE 60S WHICH WOULD KEEP
APPARENT TEMPERATURES (WHICH IS THE WHAT THE TEMPERATURE FEELS WHEN
COMBINED WITH HUMIDITY) BELOW 100 DEGREES.

WE HAVE KEPT MOST DAYS COMPLETELY DRY. THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS MIGHT BE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THURSDAY BOTH THE EUROPEAN (ECWMF) AND GFS
INDICATED A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT (OR JUST A SURFACE TROUGH) PASSING
THROUGH WHICH MIGHT BREAK THE CAP AND TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY...THE GFS INDICATED SOME CONVECTION POSSIBLY THE RESULT OF AN
EASTERLY FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. THIS
SCENARIO COULD ADD A LITTLE MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND PERHAPS
WORKING WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THE ECMWF DOES NOT INDICATE THIS FEATURE ON FRIDAY
AS IT BUILD THE HIGH CLOSER TO OUR REGION WITH REALLY NOT MUCH FLOW
AT ALL AND PRODUCING MORE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION.

NOW...WE DECIDED TO INCLUDE 20 POPS BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT AT
NO OTHER TIME FRAME.

THE SKY WILL RANGE FROM SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE
DAY...MAINLY CLEAR AT NIGHT. THERE COULD BE PATCHY VALLEY FOG BUT
DID NOT INCLUDE IT DURING THE EXTENDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL LOOKS TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

H850 TEMPS LOOK TO AVERAGE BETWEEN +16C TO +18C THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
MOST OF THE TIME THE REGION WILL BE CAPPED SO EVEN WITH A SUFFICIENT
AMOUNT OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SURFACE INSTABILITY...IT WILL
BE DIFFICULT FOR CONVECTION TO BE REALIZED.

THE BIG STORY WILL BE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES...WHICH LOOK TO CREST
AROUND 90 IN THE VALLEYS EACH DAY...MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S. AT THIS
POINT...DEWPOINTS LOOK TO ALSO BE IN THE 60S WHICH WOULD KEEP
APPARENT TEMPERATURES (WHICH IS THE WHAT THE TEMPERATURE FEELS WHEN
COMBINED WITH HUMIDITY) BELOW 100 DEGREES.

WE HAVE KEPT MOST DAYS COMPLETELY DRY. THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS MIGHT BE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THURSDAY BOTH THE EUROPEAN (ECWMF) AND GFS
INDICATED A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT (OR JUST A SURFACE TROUGH) PASSING
THROUGH WHICH MIGHT BREAK THE CAP AND TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY...THE GFS INDICATED SOME CONVECTION POSSIBLY THE RESULT OF AN
EASTERLY FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. THIS
SCENARIO COULD ADD A LITTLE MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND PERHAPS
WORKING WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THE ECMWF DOES NOT INDICATE THIS FEATURE ON FRIDAY
AS IT BUILD THE HIGH CLOSER TO OUR REGION WITH REALLY NOT MUCH FLOW
AT ALL AND PRODUCING MORE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION.

NOW...WE DECIDED TO INCLUDE 20 POPS BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT AT
NO OTHER TIME FRAME.

THE SKY WILL RANGE FROM SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE
DAY...MAINLY CLEAR AT NIGHT. THERE COULD BE PATCHY VALLEY FOG BUT
DID NOT INCLUDE IT DURING THE EXTENDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A DEPARTING NEARBY DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO ALLOW FOR CLOUDS
ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS AROUND 8-10
KFT. CLOUDS WILL GENERALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS THIS DISTURBANCE
MOVES AWAY. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF IFR FOG LATE TONIGHT
AT KPSF/GFL...ALTHOUGH IT WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY
THE CLOUDS DEPART. KALB/KPOU COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR BR
AROUND SUNRISE...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE AT
THESE SITES. WINDS WILL BE CALM OVERNIGHT. ANY FOG LOOKS TO
DISSIPATE BY AROUND 12Z.

DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR ALL
TAF SITES WITH SCT CIRRUS CLOUDS AROUND. SOME SCT CU MAY DEVELOP
BY AFTN...MAINLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. S-SW WINDS WILL BE AROUND
5-10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
TUE: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECT FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

MOST OF THE REGION HAS NOT SEEN SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN OVER A
WEEK. THIS HAD LED TO THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX APPROACHING
300 IN OUR SOUTHERN MOST COUNTIES...AND LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO RISE
OVER THE DAYS TO COME.

WINDS DURING THE NEXT WEEK LOOK TO REMAIN CALM AT NIGHT AND
LIGHT DURING THE DAY...GENERALLY UNDER 10 MPH.

A FULL OR NEARLY FULL RECOVERY IS EXPECTED EACH OF THE NEXT
SEVERAL NIGHTS ALLOWING FOR THE FORMATION OF DEW.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE
MODERATE RANGE...40 TO 60 PERCENT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED AUGUST 27
THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST 29, 30
AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY.
DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...IAA



000
FXUS61 KALY 310217
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1017 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THIS WEEK WILL BE HOT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS
THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. HIGHS MAINLY IN 80S ARE
EXPECTED MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH SOME 90S ANTICIPATED UP THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1017 PM EDT...A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF
THE REGION. ANY SHOWERS THAT OCCURRED ACROSS OUR AREA EARLIER
TODAY AS A RESULT OF THIS SYSTEM HAVE DISSIPATED DUE TO THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING.

WITH THE DISTURBANCE MOVING AWAY...CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE
TONIGHT AND WITH WINDS BECOMING CALM AND DEW POINTS INTO THE 60S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM
ESPECIALLY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. LOWS TONIGHT ARE FORECAST A BIT
WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT...IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGING WILL BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT AND TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM. GUIDANCE INDICATES A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...HOWEVER MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED
AND THE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING EASTWARD.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY AROUND 10 DEGREES TO START THE
WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S MONDAY AND IN THE 80S
TUESDAY. DEW POINTS IN THE 60S WITH MAKE FOR HUMID/MUGGY CONDITIONS.

ALBANY`S LONGEST HEAT WAVE HAS OCCURRED DURING THIS TIME OF
YEAR...PLEASE REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR DETAILS AND FOR
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEK.

 &&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL LOOKS TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

H850 TEMPS LOOK TO AVERAGE BETWEEN +16C TO +18C THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
MOST OF THE TIME THE REGION WILL BE CAPPED SO EVEN WITH A SUFFICIENT
AMOUNT OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SURFACE INSTABILITY...IT WILL
BE DIFFICULT FOR CONVECTION TO BE REALIZED.

THE BIG STORY WILL BE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES...WHICH LOOK TO CREST
AROUND 90 IN THE VALLEYS EACH DAY...MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S. AT THIS
POINT...DEWPOINTS LOOK TO ALSO BE IN THE 60S WHICH WOULD KEEP
APPARENT TEMPERATURES (WHICH IS THE WHAT THE TEMPERATURE FEELS WHEN
COMBINED WITH HUMIDITY) BELOW 100 DEGREES.

WE HAVE KEPT MOST DAYS COMPLETELY DRY. THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS MIGHT BE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THURSDAY BOTH THE EUROPEAN (ECWMF) AND GFS
INDICATED A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT (OR JUST A SURFACE TROUGH) PASSING
THROUGH WHICH MIGHT BREAK THE CAP AND TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY...THE GFS INDICATED SOME CONVECTION POSSIBLY THE RESULT OF AN
EASTERLY FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. THIS
SCENARIO COULD ADD A LITTLE MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND PERHAPS
WORKING WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THE ECMWF DOES NOT INDICATE THIS FEATURE ON FRIDAY
AS IT BUILD THE HIGH CLOSER TO OUR REGION WITH REALLY NOT MUCH FLOW
AT ALL AND PRODUCING MORE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION.

NOW...WE DECIDED TO INCLUDE 20 POPS BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT AT
NO OTHER TIME FRAME.

THE SKY WILL RANGE FROM SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE
DAY...MAINLY CLEAR AT NIGHT. THERE COULD BE PATCHY VALLEY FOG BUT
DID NOT INCLUDE IT DURING THE EXTENDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL LOOKS TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

H850 TEMPS LOOK TO AVERAGE BETWEEN +16C TO +18C THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
MOST OF THE TIME THE REGION WILL BE CAPPED SO EVEN WITH A SUFFICIENT
AMOUNT OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SURFACE INSTABILITY...IT WILL
BE DIFFICULT FOR CONVECTION TO BE REALIZED.

THE BIG STORY WILL BE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES...WHICH LOOK TO CREST
AROUND 90 IN THE VALLEYS EACH DAY...MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S. AT THIS
POINT...DEWPOINTS LOOK TO ALSO BE IN THE 60S WHICH WOULD KEEP
APPARENT TEMPERATURES (WHICH IS THE WHAT THE TEMPERATURE FEELS WHEN
COMBINED WITH HUMIDITY) BELOW 100 DEGREES.

WE HAVE KEPT MOST DAYS COMPLETELY DRY. THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS MIGHT BE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THURSDAY BOTH THE EUROPEAN (ECWMF) AND GFS
INDICATED A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT (OR JUST A SURFACE TROUGH) PASSING
THROUGH WHICH MIGHT BREAK THE CAP AND TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY...THE GFS INDICATED SOME CONVECTION POSSIBLY THE RESULT OF AN
EASTERLY FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. THIS
SCENARIO COULD ADD A LITTLE MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND PERHAPS
WORKING WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THE ECMWF DOES NOT INDICATE THIS FEATURE ON FRIDAY
AS IT BUILD THE HIGH CLOSER TO OUR REGION WITH REALLY NOT MUCH FLOW
AT ALL AND PRODUCING MORE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION.

NOW...WE DECIDED TO INCLUDE 20 POPS BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT AT
NO OTHER TIME FRAME.

THE SKY WILL RANGE FROM SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE
DAY...MAINLY CLEAR AT NIGHT. THERE COULD BE PATCHY VALLEY FOG BUT
DID NOT INCLUDE IT DURING THE EXTENDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A DEPARTING NEARBY DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO ALLOW FOR CLOUDS
ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS AROUND 8-10
KFT. CLOUDS WILL GENERALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS THIS DISTURBANCE
MOVES AWAY. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF IFR FOG LATE TONIGHT
AT KPSF/GFL...ALTHOUGH IT WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY
THE CLOUDS DEPART. KALB/KPOU COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR BR
AROUND SUNRISE...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE AT
THESE SITES. WINDS WILL BE CALM OVERNIGHT. ANY FOG LOOKS TO
DISSIPATE BY AROUND 12Z.

DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR ALL
TAF SITES WITH SCT CIRRUS CLOUDS AROUND. SOME SCT CU MAY DEVELOP
BY AFTN...MAINLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. S-SW WINDS WILL BE AROUND
5-10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
TUE: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECT FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

MOST OF THE REGION HAS NOT SEEN SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN OVER A
WEEK. THIS HAD LED TO THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX APPROACHING
300 IN OUR SOUTHERN MOST COUNTIES...AND LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO RISE
OVER THE DAYS TO COME.

WINDS DURING THE NEXT WEEK LOOK TO REMAIN CALM AT NIGHT AND
LIGHT DURING THE DAY...GENERALLY UNDER 10 MPH.

A FULL OR NEARLY FULL RECOVERY IS EXPECTED EACH OF THE NEXT
SEVERAL NIGHTS ALLOWING FOR THE FORMATION OF DEW.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE
MODERATE RANGE...40 TO 60 PERCENT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED AUGUST 27
THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST 29, 30
AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY.
DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...IAA



000
FXUS61 KALY 310217
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1017 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THIS WEEK WILL BE HOT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS
THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. HIGHS MAINLY IN 80S ARE
EXPECTED MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH SOME 90S ANTICIPATED UP THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1017 PM EDT...A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF
THE REGION. ANY SHOWERS THAT OCCURRED ACROSS OUR AREA EARLIER
TODAY AS A RESULT OF THIS SYSTEM HAVE DISSIPATED DUE TO THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING.

WITH THE DISTURBANCE MOVING AWAY...CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE
TONIGHT AND WITH WINDS BECOMING CALM AND DEW POINTS INTO THE 60S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM
ESPECIALLY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. LOWS TONIGHT ARE FORECAST A BIT
WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT...IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGING WILL BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT AND TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM. GUIDANCE INDICATES A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...HOWEVER MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED
AND THE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING EASTWARD.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY AROUND 10 DEGREES TO START THE
WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S MONDAY AND IN THE 80S
TUESDAY. DEW POINTS IN THE 60S WITH MAKE FOR HUMID/MUGGY CONDITIONS.

ALBANY`S LONGEST HEAT WAVE HAS OCCURRED DURING THIS TIME OF
YEAR...PLEASE REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR DETAILS AND FOR
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEK.

 &&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL LOOKS TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

H850 TEMPS LOOK TO AVERAGE BETWEEN +16C TO +18C THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
MOST OF THE TIME THE REGION WILL BE CAPPED SO EVEN WITH A SUFFICIENT
AMOUNT OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SURFACE INSTABILITY...IT WILL
BE DIFFICULT FOR CONVECTION TO BE REALIZED.

THE BIG STORY WILL BE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES...WHICH LOOK TO CREST
AROUND 90 IN THE VALLEYS EACH DAY...MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S. AT THIS
POINT...DEWPOINTS LOOK TO ALSO BE IN THE 60S WHICH WOULD KEEP
APPARENT TEMPERATURES (WHICH IS THE WHAT THE TEMPERATURE FEELS WHEN
COMBINED WITH HUMIDITY) BELOW 100 DEGREES.

WE HAVE KEPT MOST DAYS COMPLETELY DRY. THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS MIGHT BE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THURSDAY BOTH THE EUROPEAN (ECWMF) AND GFS
INDICATED A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT (OR JUST A SURFACE TROUGH) PASSING
THROUGH WHICH MIGHT BREAK THE CAP AND TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY...THE GFS INDICATED SOME CONVECTION POSSIBLY THE RESULT OF AN
EASTERLY FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. THIS
SCENARIO COULD ADD A LITTLE MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND PERHAPS
WORKING WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THE ECMWF DOES NOT INDICATE THIS FEATURE ON FRIDAY
AS IT BUILD THE HIGH CLOSER TO OUR REGION WITH REALLY NOT MUCH FLOW
AT ALL AND PRODUCING MORE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION.

NOW...WE DECIDED TO INCLUDE 20 POPS BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT AT
NO OTHER TIME FRAME.

THE SKY WILL RANGE FROM SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE
DAY...MAINLY CLEAR AT NIGHT. THERE COULD BE PATCHY VALLEY FOG BUT
DID NOT INCLUDE IT DURING THE EXTENDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL LOOKS TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

H850 TEMPS LOOK TO AVERAGE BETWEEN +16C TO +18C THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
MOST OF THE TIME THE REGION WILL BE CAPPED SO EVEN WITH A SUFFICIENT
AMOUNT OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SURFACE INSTABILITY...IT WILL
BE DIFFICULT FOR CONVECTION TO BE REALIZED.

THE BIG STORY WILL BE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES...WHICH LOOK TO CREST
AROUND 90 IN THE VALLEYS EACH DAY...MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S. AT THIS
POINT...DEWPOINTS LOOK TO ALSO BE IN THE 60S WHICH WOULD KEEP
APPARENT TEMPERATURES (WHICH IS THE WHAT THE TEMPERATURE FEELS WHEN
COMBINED WITH HUMIDITY) BELOW 100 DEGREES.

WE HAVE KEPT MOST DAYS COMPLETELY DRY. THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS MIGHT BE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THURSDAY BOTH THE EUROPEAN (ECWMF) AND GFS
INDICATED A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT (OR JUST A SURFACE TROUGH) PASSING
THROUGH WHICH MIGHT BREAK THE CAP AND TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY...THE GFS INDICATED SOME CONVECTION POSSIBLY THE RESULT OF AN
EASTERLY FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. THIS
SCENARIO COULD ADD A LITTLE MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND PERHAPS
WORKING WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THE ECMWF DOES NOT INDICATE THIS FEATURE ON FRIDAY
AS IT BUILD THE HIGH CLOSER TO OUR REGION WITH REALLY NOT MUCH FLOW
AT ALL AND PRODUCING MORE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION.

NOW...WE DECIDED TO INCLUDE 20 POPS BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT AT
NO OTHER TIME FRAME.

THE SKY WILL RANGE FROM SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE
DAY...MAINLY CLEAR AT NIGHT. THERE COULD BE PATCHY VALLEY FOG BUT
DID NOT INCLUDE IT DURING THE EXTENDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A DEPARTING NEARBY DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO ALLOW FOR CLOUDS
ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS AROUND 8-10
KFT. CLOUDS WILL GENERALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS THIS DISTURBANCE
MOVES AWAY. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF IFR FOG LATE TONIGHT
AT KPSF/GFL...ALTHOUGH IT WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY
THE CLOUDS DEPART. KALB/KPOU COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR BR
AROUND SUNRISE...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE AT
THESE SITES. WINDS WILL BE CALM OVERNIGHT. ANY FOG LOOKS TO
DISSIPATE BY AROUND 12Z.

DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR ALL
TAF SITES WITH SCT CIRRUS CLOUDS AROUND. SOME SCT CU MAY DEVELOP
BY AFTN...MAINLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. S-SW WINDS WILL BE AROUND
5-10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
TUE: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECT FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

MOST OF THE REGION HAS NOT SEEN SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN OVER A
WEEK. THIS HAD LED TO THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX APPROACHING
300 IN OUR SOUTHERN MOST COUNTIES...AND LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO RISE
OVER THE DAYS TO COME.

WINDS DURING THE NEXT WEEK LOOK TO REMAIN CALM AT NIGHT AND
LIGHT DURING THE DAY...GENERALLY UNDER 10 MPH.

A FULL OR NEARLY FULL RECOVERY IS EXPECTED EACH OF THE NEXT
SEVERAL NIGHTS ALLOWING FOR THE FORMATION OF DEW.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE
MODERATE RANGE...40 TO 60 PERCENT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED AUGUST 27
THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST 29, 30
AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY.
DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...IAA



000
FXUS61 KALY 310217
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1017 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THIS WEEK WILL BE HOT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS
THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. HIGHS MAINLY IN 80S ARE
EXPECTED MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH SOME 90S ANTICIPATED UP THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1017 PM EDT...A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF
THE REGION. ANY SHOWERS THAT OCCURRED ACROSS OUR AREA EARLIER
TODAY AS A RESULT OF THIS SYSTEM HAVE DISSIPATED DUE TO THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING.

WITH THE DISTURBANCE MOVING AWAY...CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE
TONIGHT AND WITH WINDS BECOMING CALM AND DEW POINTS INTO THE 60S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM
ESPECIALLY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. LOWS TONIGHT ARE FORECAST A BIT
WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT...IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGING WILL BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT AND TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM. GUIDANCE INDICATES A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...HOWEVER MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED
AND THE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING EASTWARD.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY AROUND 10 DEGREES TO START THE
WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S MONDAY AND IN THE 80S
TUESDAY. DEW POINTS IN THE 60S WITH MAKE FOR HUMID/MUGGY CONDITIONS.

ALBANY`S LONGEST HEAT WAVE HAS OCCURRED DURING THIS TIME OF
YEAR...PLEASE REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR DETAILS AND FOR
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEK.

 &&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL LOOKS TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

H850 TEMPS LOOK TO AVERAGE BETWEEN +16C TO +18C THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
MOST OF THE TIME THE REGION WILL BE CAPPED SO EVEN WITH A SUFFICIENT
AMOUNT OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SURFACE INSTABILITY...IT WILL
BE DIFFICULT FOR CONVECTION TO BE REALIZED.

THE BIG STORY WILL BE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES...WHICH LOOK TO CREST
AROUND 90 IN THE VALLEYS EACH DAY...MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S. AT THIS
POINT...DEWPOINTS LOOK TO ALSO BE IN THE 60S WHICH WOULD KEEP
APPARENT TEMPERATURES (WHICH IS THE WHAT THE TEMPERATURE FEELS WHEN
COMBINED WITH HUMIDITY) BELOW 100 DEGREES.

WE HAVE KEPT MOST DAYS COMPLETELY DRY. THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS MIGHT BE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THURSDAY BOTH THE EUROPEAN (ECWMF) AND GFS
INDICATED A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT (OR JUST A SURFACE TROUGH) PASSING
THROUGH WHICH MIGHT BREAK THE CAP AND TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY...THE GFS INDICATED SOME CONVECTION POSSIBLY THE RESULT OF AN
EASTERLY FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. THIS
SCENARIO COULD ADD A LITTLE MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND PERHAPS
WORKING WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THE ECMWF DOES NOT INDICATE THIS FEATURE ON FRIDAY
AS IT BUILD THE HIGH CLOSER TO OUR REGION WITH REALLY NOT MUCH FLOW
AT ALL AND PRODUCING MORE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION.

NOW...WE DECIDED TO INCLUDE 20 POPS BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT AT
NO OTHER TIME FRAME.

THE SKY WILL RANGE FROM SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE
DAY...MAINLY CLEAR AT NIGHT. THERE COULD BE PATCHY VALLEY FOG BUT
DID NOT INCLUDE IT DURING THE EXTENDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL LOOKS TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

H850 TEMPS LOOK TO AVERAGE BETWEEN +16C TO +18C THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
MOST OF THE TIME THE REGION WILL BE CAPPED SO EVEN WITH A SUFFICIENT
AMOUNT OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SURFACE INSTABILITY...IT WILL
BE DIFFICULT FOR CONVECTION TO BE REALIZED.

THE BIG STORY WILL BE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES...WHICH LOOK TO CREST
AROUND 90 IN THE VALLEYS EACH DAY...MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S. AT THIS
POINT...DEWPOINTS LOOK TO ALSO BE IN THE 60S WHICH WOULD KEEP
APPARENT TEMPERATURES (WHICH IS THE WHAT THE TEMPERATURE FEELS WHEN
COMBINED WITH HUMIDITY) BELOW 100 DEGREES.

WE HAVE KEPT MOST DAYS COMPLETELY DRY. THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS MIGHT BE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THURSDAY BOTH THE EUROPEAN (ECWMF) AND GFS
INDICATED A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT (OR JUST A SURFACE TROUGH) PASSING
THROUGH WHICH MIGHT BREAK THE CAP AND TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY...THE GFS INDICATED SOME CONVECTION POSSIBLY THE RESULT OF AN
EASTERLY FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. THIS
SCENARIO COULD ADD A LITTLE MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND PERHAPS
WORKING WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THE ECMWF DOES NOT INDICATE THIS FEATURE ON FRIDAY
AS IT BUILD THE HIGH CLOSER TO OUR REGION WITH REALLY NOT MUCH FLOW
AT ALL AND PRODUCING MORE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION.

NOW...WE DECIDED TO INCLUDE 20 POPS BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT AT
NO OTHER TIME FRAME.

THE SKY WILL RANGE FROM SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE
DAY...MAINLY CLEAR AT NIGHT. THERE COULD BE PATCHY VALLEY FOG BUT
DID NOT INCLUDE IT DURING THE EXTENDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A DEPARTING NEARBY DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO ALLOW FOR CLOUDS
ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS AROUND 8-10
KFT. CLOUDS WILL GENERALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS THIS DISTURBANCE
MOVES AWAY. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF IFR FOG LATE TONIGHT
AT KPSF/GFL...ALTHOUGH IT WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY
THE CLOUDS DEPART. KALB/KPOU COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR BR
AROUND SUNRISE...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE AT
THESE SITES. WINDS WILL BE CALM OVERNIGHT. ANY FOG LOOKS TO
DISSIPATE BY AROUND 12Z.

DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR ALL
TAF SITES WITH SCT CIRRUS CLOUDS AROUND. SOME SCT CU MAY DEVELOP
BY AFTN...MAINLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. S-SW WINDS WILL BE AROUND
5-10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
TUE: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECT FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

MOST OF THE REGION HAS NOT SEEN SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN OVER A
WEEK. THIS HAD LED TO THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX APPROACHING
300 IN OUR SOUTHERN MOST COUNTIES...AND LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO RISE
OVER THE DAYS TO COME.

WINDS DURING THE NEXT WEEK LOOK TO REMAIN CALM AT NIGHT AND
LIGHT DURING THE DAY...GENERALLY UNDER 10 MPH.

A FULL OR NEARLY FULL RECOVERY IS EXPECTED EACH OF THE NEXT
SEVERAL NIGHTS ALLOWING FOR THE FORMATION OF DEW.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE
MODERATE RANGE...40 TO 60 PERCENT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED AUGUST 27
THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST 29, 30
AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY.
DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...IAA



000
FXUS61 KBOX 310155
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
955 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH HOT CONDITIONS ON MONDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL BRING COOLER WEATHER TUESDAY BUT MAINLY JUST TO EASTERN
NEW ENGLAND... BEFORE UNSEASONABLY HOT WEATHER RETURNS TO MOST OF
THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
SHOULD BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER FRIDAY INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAINLY
DRY WEATHER CONTINUING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
950 PM UPDATE...
WEAKENING SHOWERS MOVING ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WILL DISSIPATE
NEXT HOUR OR SO AS THEY MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS AND UPPER
CAPE/MVY. A FEW SHOWERS ALSO MOVING EAST FROM COASTAL CT. LOW
PROB OF A BRIEF SHOWER COASTAL RI AROUND MIDNIGHT...OTHERWISE
DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL KEEP SHOWERS S OF THE
REGION OVERNIGHT.

AN ABUNDANCE OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS THIS EVENING SHOULD BEGIN TO
CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...CLOUDS MAY HANG
TOUGH NEAR THE SOUTH COAST THROUGH DAYBREAK. LOW TEMPS SHOULD
RANGE FROM AROUND 60 IN THE NORMALLY COOLER OUTLYING LOCATIONS OF
NORTHWEST MA...TO MAINLY THE 60S TO AROUND 70 ELSEWHERE. PATCHY
GROUND FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP LATE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM QUEBEC INTO THE MARITIMES WILL
BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH MAINE AND INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND.  STILL SEEING QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR ACROSS THE REGION
SO AM NOT EXPECTING ANY RAIN AND EVEN A FEW DIURNAL CLOUDS SEEM TO
STRUGGLE.  STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTRIBUTES TO THE DRY
AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS BUT ALSO BRINGS WARMER 850MB TEMPS
INTO THE REGION. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND
90 FOR MOST LOCATIONS.  ONSHORE WINDS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WILL
KEEP THE IMMEDIATE COAST A BIT COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S.

MONDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
START TO BUILD INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND
WITH DRIER NORTHWESTERLY WINDS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RADIATE OUT A
BIT MORE.  EXPECT LOWS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* VERY WARM ON TUESDAY EXCEPT COOLER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND COAST
* UNSEASONABLY HOT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
* A BIT COOLER FRI INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL
* MAINLY DRY OTHER THEN PERHAPS A SPOT SHOWER/STORM THU

DETAILS...

ALL MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER RIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.  THIS
MEANS ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER.  WE MAY SEE ENOUGH FORCING TO SPARK A FEW SPOT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SOMETIME THU INTO THU EVENING WITH A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT.  HOWEVER...ODDS ARE AGAINST ANY WIDESPREAD MEANINGFUL
RAINFALL GIVEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING...SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE SLIGHT
CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW.

THE EXCEPTION FROM THE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL BE TUESDAY
ACROSS COASTAL NEW ENGLAND...WHEN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT KEEPS HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S.  HOWEVER...THE LOWER CT
RIVER VALLEY SHOULD STILL SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S ON TUE AND ITS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOMEONE TOUCHES 90.

THE HOTTEST WEATHER LOOK TO BE WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO THURSDAY
WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 18C.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S AND LOWER 90S AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW LOCATIONS
HIT THE MIDDLE 90S.

ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL COOL TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES FRI
INTO SAT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.  HOWEVER...STILL
EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL RIGHT THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND GIVEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN CONTROL.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. VFR THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
OTHER THAN LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE
TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD OTHER THAN VERY LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.  A SPOT
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE THU/THU EVENING...BUT
ODDS ARE AGAINST ANYTHING WIDESPREAD.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS WILL KEEP WINDS
AND WAVES BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS
EXPECTED. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF 5 FOOT
SEAS ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  VISIBILITY SHOULD BE
GOOD AS WELL...SO NICE BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TUE AND AGAIN SOMETIME THU INTO FRI WILL SHIFT
WINDS TO THE EAST...BUT GUSTS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN 20
KNOTS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/RLG
NEAR TERM...KJC/FRANK
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...KJC/FRANK/RLG
MARINE...FRANK/RLG



000
FXUS61 KBOX 310155
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
955 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH HOT CONDITIONS ON MONDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL BRING COOLER WEATHER TUESDAY BUT MAINLY JUST TO EASTERN
NEW ENGLAND... BEFORE UNSEASONABLY HOT WEATHER RETURNS TO MOST OF
THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
SHOULD BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER FRIDAY INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAINLY
DRY WEATHER CONTINUING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
950 PM UPDATE...
WEAKENING SHOWERS MOVING ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WILL DISSIPATE
NEXT HOUR OR SO AS THEY MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS AND UPPER
CAPE/MVY. A FEW SHOWERS ALSO MOVING EAST FROM COASTAL CT. LOW
PROB OF A BRIEF SHOWER COASTAL RI AROUND MIDNIGHT...OTHERWISE
DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL KEEP SHOWERS S OF THE
REGION OVERNIGHT.

AN ABUNDANCE OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS THIS EVENING SHOULD BEGIN TO
CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...CLOUDS MAY HANG
TOUGH NEAR THE SOUTH COAST THROUGH DAYBREAK. LOW TEMPS SHOULD
RANGE FROM AROUND 60 IN THE NORMALLY COOLER OUTLYING LOCATIONS OF
NORTHWEST MA...TO MAINLY THE 60S TO AROUND 70 ELSEWHERE. PATCHY
GROUND FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP LATE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM QUEBEC INTO THE MARITIMES WILL
BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH MAINE AND INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND.  STILL SEEING QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR ACROSS THE REGION
SO AM NOT EXPECTING ANY RAIN AND EVEN A FEW DIURNAL CLOUDS SEEM TO
STRUGGLE.  STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTRIBUTES TO THE DRY
AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS BUT ALSO BRINGS WARMER 850MB TEMPS
INTO THE REGION. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND
90 FOR MOST LOCATIONS.  ONSHORE WINDS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WILL
KEEP THE IMMEDIATE COAST A BIT COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S.

MONDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
START TO BUILD INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND
WITH DRIER NORTHWESTERLY WINDS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RADIATE OUT A
BIT MORE.  EXPECT LOWS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* VERY WARM ON TUESDAY EXCEPT COOLER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND COAST
* UNSEASONABLY HOT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
* A BIT COOLER FRI INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL
* MAINLY DRY OTHER THEN PERHAPS A SPOT SHOWER/STORM THU

DETAILS...

ALL MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER RIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.  THIS
MEANS ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER.  WE MAY SEE ENOUGH FORCING TO SPARK A FEW SPOT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SOMETIME THU INTO THU EVENING WITH A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT.  HOWEVER...ODDS ARE AGAINST ANY WIDESPREAD MEANINGFUL
RAINFALL GIVEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING...SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE SLIGHT
CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW.

THE EXCEPTION FROM THE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL BE TUESDAY
ACROSS COASTAL NEW ENGLAND...WHEN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT KEEPS HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S.  HOWEVER...THE LOWER CT
RIVER VALLEY SHOULD STILL SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S ON TUE AND ITS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOMEONE TOUCHES 90.

THE HOTTEST WEATHER LOOK TO BE WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO THURSDAY
WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 18C.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S AND LOWER 90S AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW LOCATIONS
HIT THE MIDDLE 90S.

ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL COOL TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES FRI
INTO SAT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.  HOWEVER...STILL
EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL RIGHT THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND GIVEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN CONTROL.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. VFR THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
OTHER THAN LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE
TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD OTHER THAN VERY LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.  A SPOT
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE THU/THU EVENING...BUT
ODDS ARE AGAINST ANYTHING WIDESPREAD.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS WILL KEEP WINDS
AND WAVES BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS
EXPECTED. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF 5 FOOT
SEAS ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  VISIBILITY SHOULD BE
GOOD AS WELL...SO NICE BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TUE AND AGAIN SOMETIME THU INTO FRI WILL SHIFT
WINDS TO THE EAST...BUT GUSTS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN 20
KNOTS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/RLG
NEAR TERM...KJC/FRANK
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...KJC/FRANK/RLG
MARINE...FRANK/RLG




000
FXUS61 KOKX 310145
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
945 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND MOVE
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND MONDAY. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
LATE MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT IT WILL STILL BE WARM
AND MAINLY DRY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK. ADJUSTED POPS A BIT BASED ON
LATEST SHOWER DEVELOPMENT AND ALSO MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
T/TD/WIND AND SKY GRIDS TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT CONDS AND
TRENDS.

MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED HIGHER PVA MOVE MOSTLY SOUTH
OF THE REGION WITH A STRONGER ONE TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CANADA. AT THE SURFACE...THERE WILL BE A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
MOVING TOWARDS THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP AN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS
OVERHEAD FOR THE NIGHT. THE LOWS WERE TAKEN FROM THE RELATIVELY
WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE OF THE MAV MOS...WITH VALUES EXPECTED TO
BE WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW.

COOLING TEMPERATURES WITH COVERAGE OF ANY CONVECTION REMAINING
DECREASING INTO THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL
STILL BE SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE WITH SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY AHEAD OF
THE SURFACE TROUGH. WITH THESE AFOREMENTIONED FACTORS...THERE WILL
BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR TONIGHT
ACROSS ALL LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHORTWAVE WEAKENS SOUTH OF THE REGION MONDAY. A HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGE FROM THE WEST WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN. HOWEVER...AT THE
SURFACE...THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN AND THE DAYTIME SHOULD ENHANCE IT
WITH THE SEA BREEZE GIVING SOME INCREASE IN THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
WITHIN THE REGION ACROSS THE COAST. THE COOLER TEMPS WILL BE
ADVECTED INTO THE REGION FROM THE MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS WILL
CONVERGE AGAINST PLACES THAT HAVE SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE POPS OVERALL
WILL NOT BE HIGH...JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CLOSE TO THE COAST...BUT WITH THE AIRMASS BECOMING INCREASINGLY WARM
AND HUMID...INSTABILITY WILL BE LARGER AS CAPE INCREASES TO
APPROXIMATELY 500-1000 J/KG. INLAND...DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL. AN OVERALL VERY WARM DAY EXPECTED. A MAV/MET BLEND WAS USED
FOR HIGHS...YIELDING VALUES FROM THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS A
MAJORITY OF THE REGION.

ONCE THE HEATING WANES DOWN FOR MONDAY EVENING...THE ENVIRONMENT
WILL BECOME MORE STABLE AND THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE FROM THE WEST
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL HAVE PUSHED SOUTH
OF LONG ISLAND. THERE WILL BE A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS LATE. OVERALL...THE GREATER INFLUENCE WILL BE FROM THE
RIDGE AND THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGING WILL LEAD TO LESSENING
CLOUDS. HOWEVER...DESPITE LIGHT WINDS...LOWS WILL NOT CHANGE TOO
MUCH COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS NIGHT. THE RELATIVELY WARM AND
HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN THOUGH AS WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASES
AT THE 850MB LEVEL.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS ON
MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MAIN THEME OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE CONTINUATION OF
HEAT AND HUMIDITY ACROSS THE REGION.

MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE H5 PATTERN ACROSS NOAM
THROUGH THE PERIOD. A LATE SEASON HEAT WAVE IS EXPECTED FOR PARTS OF
THE TRI-STATE AREA THIS WEEK AS A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE ENCOMPASSES THE
EASTERN US. A SLY FLOW FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK WILL KEEP HUMIDITY
LEVELS HIGH AS WELL. THE HOTTEST DAY...HEAT AND HUMIDITY COMBINED
LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY WITH MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT. NOT EXPECTING HEAT ADVSY CRITERIA TO BE MET...ALTHOUGH HEAT
INDICES WILL RANGE BETWEEN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH WED WITH 90 TO 95 ON THU. ALTHOUGH PARTS OF NYC MAY REACH A
95 DEGREE HEAT INDEX THU...NOT EXPECTING IT FOR 2 CONSECUTIVE
DAYS. THEREFORE...NO ADVSY IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE CITY EITHER.

IT WILL BE A FAIRLY DRY WEEK WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH THE
WEAK BOUNDARY THU/THU EVE AND AGAIN FRI/FRI EVE AS ANOTHER WEAK
BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE N...THIS TIME WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE
ENERGY. THE FLOW BECOMES ELY FRI...BUT THE COMBINATION OF THE UPPER
ENERGY...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND THE OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCE COULD
TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS.

THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO PROVIDE SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT
ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST FRI THROUGH SUN. TEMPS WILL STILL BE 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THOUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE TRI-STATE THIS
EVENING...THEN STALL OUT SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND INTO MONDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT CONFIDENCE VERY LOW
FOR ANY ACTIVITY TO IMPACT ANY PARTICULAR AIRPORT. WILL AMEND AS
NECESSARY.

LIGHT SW OR VARIABLE WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. WSW-WNW
WINDS AT AROUND 10 KT DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE MONDAY MORNING AND
INTO EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD INCREASE DURING
THE AFTERNOON...10 TO 15 KT. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KTS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KJFK.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR. AFTERNOON SEABREEZES PROBABLE
EACH AFTERNOON.
.THURSDAY...MOST LIKELY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. AFTERNOON SEABREEZES PROBABLE.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.FRIDAY...MOST LIKELY VFR. E WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE. ISOLATED-
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
PRIMARILY A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH MON NIGHT. THE WINDS
WILL BE MAINLY LESS THAN 15 KT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH.
THERE COULD BE A ROUND OF GUSTS MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT THESE ARE
EXPECTED TO BE UP TO 20 KT. SEAS ON THE OCEAN MAY GET TO 5 FT
MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT...DID NOT
THINK WINDS WOULD SUPPLY A STRONG ENOUGH FETCH TO INCREASE SEAS TO
5 FT. THEREFORE CAPPED THE OCEAN SEAS AT 4 FT MONDAY NIGHT.

SUB-ADVSY CONDS ARE EXPECTED ON ALL WATERS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THROUGH MONDAY COULD RESULT IN A BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOUR...WITH PERHAPS A QUICK QUARTER OF AN INCH IN
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THERE COULD BE SOME LOCALLY MINOR FLOODING BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW WITH COVERAGE OF CONVECTION FORECAST
BEING LOW.

OVERALL...NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A RECENT FULL MOON...BRIEF MINOR INUNDATION IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE ACROSS THE TYPICALLY VULNERABLE
COASTAL LOCALES FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KOKX 310145
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
945 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND MOVE
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND MONDAY. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
LATE MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT IT WILL STILL BE WARM
AND MAINLY DRY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK. ADJUSTED POPS A BIT BASED ON
LATEST SHOWER DEVELOPMENT AND ALSO MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
T/TD/WIND AND SKY GRIDS TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT CONDS AND
TRENDS.

MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED HIGHER PVA MOVE MOSTLY SOUTH
OF THE REGION WITH A STRONGER ONE TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CANADA. AT THE SURFACE...THERE WILL BE A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
MOVING TOWARDS THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP AN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS
OVERHEAD FOR THE NIGHT. THE LOWS WERE TAKEN FROM THE RELATIVELY
WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE OF THE MAV MOS...WITH VALUES EXPECTED TO
BE WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW.

COOLING TEMPERATURES WITH COVERAGE OF ANY CONVECTION REMAINING
DECREASING INTO THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL
STILL BE SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE WITH SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY AHEAD OF
THE SURFACE TROUGH. WITH THESE AFOREMENTIONED FACTORS...THERE WILL
BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR TONIGHT
ACROSS ALL LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHORTWAVE WEAKENS SOUTH OF THE REGION MONDAY. A HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGE FROM THE WEST WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN. HOWEVER...AT THE
SURFACE...THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN AND THE DAYTIME SHOULD ENHANCE IT
WITH THE SEA BREEZE GIVING SOME INCREASE IN THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
WITHIN THE REGION ACROSS THE COAST. THE COOLER TEMPS WILL BE
ADVECTED INTO THE REGION FROM THE MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS WILL
CONVERGE AGAINST PLACES THAT HAVE SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE POPS OVERALL
WILL NOT BE HIGH...JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CLOSE TO THE COAST...BUT WITH THE AIRMASS BECOMING INCREASINGLY WARM
AND HUMID...INSTABILITY WILL BE LARGER AS CAPE INCREASES TO
APPROXIMATELY 500-1000 J/KG. INLAND...DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL. AN OVERALL VERY WARM DAY EXPECTED. A MAV/MET BLEND WAS USED
FOR HIGHS...YIELDING VALUES FROM THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS A
MAJORITY OF THE REGION.

ONCE THE HEATING WANES DOWN FOR MONDAY EVENING...THE ENVIRONMENT
WILL BECOME MORE STABLE AND THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE FROM THE WEST
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL HAVE PUSHED SOUTH
OF LONG ISLAND. THERE WILL BE A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS LATE. OVERALL...THE GREATER INFLUENCE WILL BE FROM THE
RIDGE AND THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGING WILL LEAD TO LESSENING
CLOUDS. HOWEVER...DESPITE LIGHT WINDS...LOWS WILL NOT CHANGE TOO
MUCH COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS NIGHT. THE RELATIVELY WARM AND
HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN THOUGH AS WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASES
AT THE 850MB LEVEL.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS ON
MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MAIN THEME OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE CONTINUATION OF
HEAT AND HUMIDITY ACROSS THE REGION.

MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE H5 PATTERN ACROSS NOAM
THROUGH THE PERIOD. A LATE SEASON HEAT WAVE IS EXPECTED FOR PARTS OF
THE TRI-STATE AREA THIS WEEK AS A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE ENCOMPASSES THE
EASTERN US. A SLY FLOW FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK WILL KEEP HUMIDITY
LEVELS HIGH AS WELL. THE HOTTEST DAY...HEAT AND HUMIDITY COMBINED
LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY WITH MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT. NOT EXPECTING HEAT ADVSY CRITERIA TO BE MET...ALTHOUGH HEAT
INDICES WILL RANGE BETWEEN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH WED WITH 90 TO 95 ON THU. ALTHOUGH PARTS OF NYC MAY REACH A
95 DEGREE HEAT INDEX THU...NOT EXPECTING IT FOR 2 CONSECUTIVE
DAYS. THEREFORE...NO ADVSY IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE CITY EITHER.

IT WILL BE A FAIRLY DRY WEEK WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH THE
WEAK BOUNDARY THU/THU EVE AND AGAIN FRI/FRI EVE AS ANOTHER WEAK
BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE N...THIS TIME WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE
ENERGY. THE FLOW BECOMES ELY FRI...BUT THE COMBINATION OF THE UPPER
ENERGY...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND THE OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCE COULD
TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS.

THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO PROVIDE SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT
ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST FRI THROUGH SUN. TEMPS WILL STILL BE 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THOUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE TRI-STATE THIS
EVENING...THEN STALL OUT SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND INTO MONDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT CONFIDENCE VERY LOW
FOR ANY ACTIVITY TO IMPACT ANY PARTICULAR AIRPORT. WILL AMEND AS
NECESSARY.

LIGHT SW OR VARIABLE WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. WSW-WNW
WINDS AT AROUND 10 KT DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE MONDAY MORNING AND
INTO EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD INCREASE DURING
THE AFTERNOON...10 TO 15 KT. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KTS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KJFK.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR. AFTERNOON SEABREEZES PROBABLE
EACH AFTERNOON.
.THURSDAY...MOST LIKELY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. AFTERNOON SEABREEZES PROBABLE.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.FRIDAY...MOST LIKELY VFR. E WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE. ISOLATED-
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
PRIMARILY A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH MON NIGHT. THE WINDS
WILL BE MAINLY LESS THAN 15 KT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH.
THERE COULD BE A ROUND OF GUSTS MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT THESE ARE
EXPECTED TO BE UP TO 20 KT. SEAS ON THE OCEAN MAY GET TO 5 FT
MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT...DID NOT
THINK WINDS WOULD SUPPLY A STRONG ENOUGH FETCH TO INCREASE SEAS TO
5 FT. THEREFORE CAPPED THE OCEAN SEAS AT 4 FT MONDAY NIGHT.

SUB-ADVSY CONDS ARE EXPECTED ON ALL WATERS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THROUGH MONDAY COULD RESULT IN A BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOUR...WITH PERHAPS A QUICK QUARTER OF AN INCH IN
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THERE COULD BE SOME LOCALLY MINOR FLOODING BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW WITH COVERAGE OF CONVECTION FORECAST
BEING LOW.

OVERALL...NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A RECENT FULL MOON...BRIEF MINOR INUNDATION IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE ACROSS THE TYPICALLY VULNERABLE
COASTAL LOCALES FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KOKX 310145
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
945 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND MOVE
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND MONDAY. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
LATE MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT IT WILL STILL BE WARM
AND MAINLY DRY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK. ADJUSTED POPS A BIT BASED ON
LATEST SHOWER DEVELOPMENT AND ALSO MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
T/TD/WIND AND SKY GRIDS TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT CONDS AND
TRENDS.

MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED HIGHER PVA MOVE MOSTLY SOUTH
OF THE REGION WITH A STRONGER ONE TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CANADA. AT THE SURFACE...THERE WILL BE A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
MOVING TOWARDS THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP AN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS
OVERHEAD FOR THE NIGHT. THE LOWS WERE TAKEN FROM THE RELATIVELY
WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE OF THE MAV MOS...WITH VALUES EXPECTED TO
BE WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW.

COOLING TEMPERATURES WITH COVERAGE OF ANY CONVECTION REMAINING
DECREASING INTO THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL
STILL BE SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE WITH SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY AHEAD OF
THE SURFACE TROUGH. WITH THESE AFOREMENTIONED FACTORS...THERE WILL
BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR TONIGHT
ACROSS ALL LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHORTWAVE WEAKENS SOUTH OF THE REGION MONDAY. A HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGE FROM THE WEST WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN. HOWEVER...AT THE
SURFACE...THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN AND THE DAYTIME SHOULD ENHANCE IT
WITH THE SEA BREEZE GIVING SOME INCREASE IN THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
WITHIN THE REGION ACROSS THE COAST. THE COOLER TEMPS WILL BE
ADVECTED INTO THE REGION FROM THE MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS WILL
CONVERGE AGAINST PLACES THAT HAVE SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE POPS OVERALL
WILL NOT BE HIGH...JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CLOSE TO THE COAST...BUT WITH THE AIRMASS BECOMING INCREASINGLY WARM
AND HUMID...INSTABILITY WILL BE LARGER AS CAPE INCREASES TO
APPROXIMATELY 500-1000 J/KG. INLAND...DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL. AN OVERALL VERY WARM DAY EXPECTED. A MAV/MET BLEND WAS USED
FOR HIGHS...YIELDING VALUES FROM THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS A
MAJORITY OF THE REGION.

ONCE THE HEATING WANES DOWN FOR MONDAY EVENING...THE ENVIRONMENT
WILL BECOME MORE STABLE AND THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE FROM THE WEST
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL HAVE PUSHED SOUTH
OF LONG ISLAND. THERE WILL BE A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS LATE. OVERALL...THE GREATER INFLUENCE WILL BE FROM THE
RIDGE AND THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGING WILL LEAD TO LESSENING
CLOUDS. HOWEVER...DESPITE LIGHT WINDS...LOWS WILL NOT CHANGE TOO
MUCH COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS NIGHT. THE RELATIVELY WARM AND
HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN THOUGH AS WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASES
AT THE 850MB LEVEL.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS ON
MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MAIN THEME OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE CONTINUATION OF
HEAT AND HUMIDITY ACROSS THE REGION.

MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE H5 PATTERN ACROSS NOAM
THROUGH THE PERIOD. A LATE SEASON HEAT WAVE IS EXPECTED FOR PARTS OF
THE TRI-STATE AREA THIS WEEK AS A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE ENCOMPASSES THE
EASTERN US. A SLY FLOW FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK WILL KEEP HUMIDITY
LEVELS HIGH AS WELL. THE HOTTEST DAY...HEAT AND HUMIDITY COMBINED
LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY WITH MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT. NOT EXPECTING HEAT ADVSY CRITERIA TO BE MET...ALTHOUGH HEAT
INDICES WILL RANGE BETWEEN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH WED WITH 90 TO 95 ON THU. ALTHOUGH PARTS OF NYC MAY REACH A
95 DEGREE HEAT INDEX THU...NOT EXPECTING IT FOR 2 CONSECUTIVE
DAYS. THEREFORE...NO ADVSY IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE CITY EITHER.

IT WILL BE A FAIRLY DRY WEEK WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH THE
WEAK BOUNDARY THU/THU EVE AND AGAIN FRI/FRI EVE AS ANOTHER WEAK
BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE N...THIS TIME WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE
ENERGY. THE FLOW BECOMES ELY FRI...BUT THE COMBINATION OF THE UPPER
ENERGY...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND THE OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCE COULD
TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS.

THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO PROVIDE SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT
ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST FRI THROUGH SUN. TEMPS WILL STILL BE 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THOUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE TRI-STATE THIS
EVENING...THEN STALL OUT SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND INTO MONDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT CONFIDENCE VERY LOW
FOR ANY ACTIVITY TO IMPACT ANY PARTICULAR AIRPORT. WILL AMEND AS
NECESSARY.

LIGHT SW OR VARIABLE WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. WSW-WNW
WINDS AT AROUND 10 KT DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE MONDAY MORNING AND
INTO EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD INCREASE DURING
THE AFTERNOON...10 TO 15 KT. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KTS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KJFK.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR. AFTERNOON SEABREEZES PROBABLE
EACH AFTERNOON.
.THURSDAY...MOST LIKELY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. AFTERNOON SEABREEZES PROBABLE.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.FRIDAY...MOST LIKELY VFR. E WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE. ISOLATED-
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
PRIMARILY A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH MON NIGHT. THE WINDS
WILL BE MAINLY LESS THAN 15 KT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH.
THERE COULD BE A ROUND OF GUSTS MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT THESE ARE
EXPECTED TO BE UP TO 20 KT. SEAS ON THE OCEAN MAY GET TO 5 FT
MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT...DID NOT
THINK WINDS WOULD SUPPLY A STRONG ENOUGH FETCH TO INCREASE SEAS TO
5 FT. THEREFORE CAPPED THE OCEAN SEAS AT 4 FT MONDAY NIGHT.

SUB-ADVSY CONDS ARE EXPECTED ON ALL WATERS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THROUGH MONDAY COULD RESULT IN A BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOUR...WITH PERHAPS A QUICK QUARTER OF AN INCH IN
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THERE COULD BE SOME LOCALLY MINOR FLOODING BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW WITH COVERAGE OF CONVECTION FORECAST
BEING LOW.

OVERALL...NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A RECENT FULL MOON...BRIEF MINOR INUNDATION IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE ACROSS THE TYPICALLY VULNERABLE
COASTAL LOCALES FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KOKX 310145
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
945 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND MOVE
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND MONDAY. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
LATE MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT IT WILL STILL BE WARM
AND MAINLY DRY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK. ADJUSTED POPS A BIT BASED ON
LATEST SHOWER DEVELOPMENT AND ALSO MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
T/TD/WIND AND SKY GRIDS TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT CONDS AND
TRENDS.

MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED HIGHER PVA MOVE MOSTLY SOUTH
OF THE REGION WITH A STRONGER ONE TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CANADA. AT THE SURFACE...THERE WILL BE A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
MOVING TOWARDS THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP AN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS
OVERHEAD FOR THE NIGHT. THE LOWS WERE TAKEN FROM THE RELATIVELY
WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE OF THE MAV MOS...WITH VALUES EXPECTED TO
BE WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW.

COOLING TEMPERATURES WITH COVERAGE OF ANY CONVECTION REMAINING
DECREASING INTO THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL
STILL BE SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE WITH SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY AHEAD OF
THE SURFACE TROUGH. WITH THESE AFOREMENTIONED FACTORS...THERE WILL
BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR TONIGHT
ACROSS ALL LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHORTWAVE WEAKENS SOUTH OF THE REGION MONDAY. A HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGE FROM THE WEST WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN. HOWEVER...AT THE
SURFACE...THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN AND THE DAYTIME SHOULD ENHANCE IT
WITH THE SEA BREEZE GIVING SOME INCREASE IN THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
WITHIN THE REGION ACROSS THE COAST. THE COOLER TEMPS WILL BE
ADVECTED INTO THE REGION FROM THE MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS WILL
CONVERGE AGAINST PLACES THAT HAVE SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE POPS OVERALL
WILL NOT BE HIGH...JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CLOSE TO THE COAST...BUT WITH THE AIRMASS BECOMING INCREASINGLY WARM
AND HUMID...INSTABILITY WILL BE LARGER AS CAPE INCREASES TO
APPROXIMATELY 500-1000 J/KG. INLAND...DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL. AN OVERALL VERY WARM DAY EXPECTED. A MAV/MET BLEND WAS USED
FOR HIGHS...YIELDING VALUES FROM THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS A
MAJORITY OF THE REGION.

ONCE THE HEATING WANES DOWN FOR MONDAY EVENING...THE ENVIRONMENT
WILL BECOME MORE STABLE AND THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE FROM THE WEST
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL HAVE PUSHED SOUTH
OF LONG ISLAND. THERE WILL BE A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS LATE. OVERALL...THE GREATER INFLUENCE WILL BE FROM THE
RIDGE AND THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGING WILL LEAD TO LESSENING
CLOUDS. HOWEVER...DESPITE LIGHT WINDS...LOWS WILL NOT CHANGE TOO
MUCH COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS NIGHT. THE RELATIVELY WARM AND
HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN THOUGH AS WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASES
AT THE 850MB LEVEL.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS ON
MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MAIN THEME OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE CONTINUATION OF
HEAT AND HUMIDITY ACROSS THE REGION.

MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE H5 PATTERN ACROSS NOAM
THROUGH THE PERIOD. A LATE SEASON HEAT WAVE IS EXPECTED FOR PARTS OF
THE TRI-STATE AREA THIS WEEK AS A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE ENCOMPASSES THE
EASTERN US. A SLY FLOW FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK WILL KEEP HUMIDITY
LEVELS HIGH AS WELL. THE HOTTEST DAY...HEAT AND HUMIDITY COMBINED
LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY WITH MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT. NOT EXPECTING HEAT ADVSY CRITERIA TO BE MET...ALTHOUGH HEAT
INDICES WILL RANGE BETWEEN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH WED WITH 90 TO 95 ON THU. ALTHOUGH PARTS OF NYC MAY REACH A
95 DEGREE HEAT INDEX THU...NOT EXPECTING IT FOR 2 CONSECUTIVE
DAYS. THEREFORE...NO ADVSY IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE CITY EITHER.

IT WILL BE A FAIRLY DRY WEEK WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH THE
WEAK BOUNDARY THU/THU EVE AND AGAIN FRI/FRI EVE AS ANOTHER WEAK
BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE N...THIS TIME WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE
ENERGY. THE FLOW BECOMES ELY FRI...BUT THE COMBINATION OF THE UPPER
ENERGY...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND THE OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCE COULD
TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS.

THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO PROVIDE SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT
ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST FRI THROUGH SUN. TEMPS WILL STILL BE 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THOUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE TRI-STATE THIS
EVENING...THEN STALL OUT SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND INTO MONDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT CONFIDENCE VERY LOW
FOR ANY ACTIVITY TO IMPACT ANY PARTICULAR AIRPORT. WILL AMEND AS
NECESSARY.

LIGHT SW OR VARIABLE WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. WSW-WNW
WINDS AT AROUND 10 KT DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE MONDAY MORNING AND
INTO EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD INCREASE DURING
THE AFTERNOON...10 TO 15 KT. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KTS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KJFK.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR. AFTERNOON SEABREEZES PROBABLE
EACH AFTERNOON.
.THURSDAY...MOST LIKELY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. AFTERNOON SEABREEZES PROBABLE.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.FRIDAY...MOST LIKELY VFR. E WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE. ISOLATED-
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
PRIMARILY A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH MON NIGHT. THE WINDS
WILL BE MAINLY LESS THAN 15 KT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH.
THERE COULD BE A ROUND OF GUSTS MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT THESE ARE
EXPECTED TO BE UP TO 20 KT. SEAS ON THE OCEAN MAY GET TO 5 FT
MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT...DID NOT
THINK WINDS WOULD SUPPLY A STRONG ENOUGH FETCH TO INCREASE SEAS TO
5 FT. THEREFORE CAPPED THE OCEAN SEAS AT 4 FT MONDAY NIGHT.

SUB-ADVSY CONDS ARE EXPECTED ON ALL WATERS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THROUGH MONDAY COULD RESULT IN A BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOUR...WITH PERHAPS A QUICK QUARTER OF AN INCH IN
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THERE COULD BE SOME LOCALLY MINOR FLOODING BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW WITH COVERAGE OF CONVECTION FORECAST
BEING LOW.

OVERALL...NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A RECENT FULL MOON...BRIEF MINOR INUNDATION IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE ACROSS THE TYPICALLY VULNERABLE
COASTAL LOCALES FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KOKX 310145
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
945 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND MOVE
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND MONDAY. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
LATE MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT IT WILL STILL BE WARM
AND MAINLY DRY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK. ADJUSTED POPS A BIT BASED ON
LATEST SHOWER DEVELOPMENT AND ALSO MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
T/TD/WIND AND SKY GRIDS TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT CONDS AND
TRENDS.

MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED HIGHER PVA MOVE MOSTLY SOUTH
OF THE REGION WITH A STRONGER ONE TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CANADA. AT THE SURFACE...THERE WILL BE A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
MOVING TOWARDS THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP AN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS
OVERHEAD FOR THE NIGHT. THE LOWS WERE TAKEN FROM THE RELATIVELY
WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE OF THE MAV MOS...WITH VALUES EXPECTED TO
BE WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW.

COOLING TEMPERATURES WITH COVERAGE OF ANY CONVECTION REMAINING
DECREASING INTO THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL
STILL BE SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE WITH SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY AHEAD OF
THE SURFACE TROUGH. WITH THESE AFOREMENTIONED FACTORS...THERE WILL
BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR TONIGHT
ACROSS ALL LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHORTWAVE WEAKENS SOUTH OF THE REGION MONDAY. A HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGE FROM THE WEST WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN. HOWEVER...AT THE
SURFACE...THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN AND THE DAYTIME SHOULD ENHANCE IT
WITH THE SEA BREEZE GIVING SOME INCREASE IN THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
WITHIN THE REGION ACROSS THE COAST. THE COOLER TEMPS WILL BE
ADVECTED INTO THE REGION FROM THE MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS WILL
CONVERGE AGAINST PLACES THAT HAVE SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE POPS OVERALL
WILL NOT BE HIGH...JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CLOSE TO THE COAST...BUT WITH THE AIRMASS BECOMING INCREASINGLY WARM
AND HUMID...INSTABILITY WILL BE LARGER AS CAPE INCREASES TO
APPROXIMATELY 500-1000 J/KG. INLAND...DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL. AN OVERALL VERY WARM DAY EXPECTED. A MAV/MET BLEND WAS USED
FOR HIGHS...YIELDING VALUES FROM THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS A
MAJORITY OF THE REGION.

ONCE THE HEATING WANES DOWN FOR MONDAY EVENING...THE ENVIRONMENT
WILL BECOME MORE STABLE AND THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE FROM THE WEST
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL HAVE PUSHED SOUTH
OF LONG ISLAND. THERE WILL BE A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS LATE. OVERALL...THE GREATER INFLUENCE WILL BE FROM THE
RIDGE AND THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGING WILL LEAD TO LESSENING
CLOUDS. HOWEVER...DESPITE LIGHT WINDS...LOWS WILL NOT CHANGE TOO
MUCH COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS NIGHT. THE RELATIVELY WARM AND
HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN THOUGH AS WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASES
AT THE 850MB LEVEL.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS ON
MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MAIN THEME OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE CONTINUATION OF
HEAT AND HUMIDITY ACROSS THE REGION.

MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE H5 PATTERN ACROSS NOAM
THROUGH THE PERIOD. A LATE SEASON HEAT WAVE IS EXPECTED FOR PARTS OF
THE TRI-STATE AREA THIS WEEK AS A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE ENCOMPASSES THE
EASTERN US. A SLY FLOW FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK WILL KEEP HUMIDITY
LEVELS HIGH AS WELL. THE HOTTEST DAY...HEAT AND HUMIDITY COMBINED
LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY WITH MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT. NOT EXPECTING HEAT ADVSY CRITERIA TO BE MET...ALTHOUGH HEAT
INDICES WILL RANGE BETWEEN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH WED WITH 90 TO 95 ON THU. ALTHOUGH PARTS OF NYC MAY REACH A
95 DEGREE HEAT INDEX THU...NOT EXPECTING IT FOR 2 CONSECUTIVE
DAYS. THEREFORE...NO ADVSY IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE CITY EITHER.

IT WILL BE A FAIRLY DRY WEEK WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH THE
WEAK BOUNDARY THU/THU EVE AND AGAIN FRI/FRI EVE AS ANOTHER WEAK
BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE N...THIS TIME WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE
ENERGY. THE FLOW BECOMES ELY FRI...BUT THE COMBINATION OF THE UPPER
ENERGY...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND THE OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCE COULD
TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS.

THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO PROVIDE SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT
ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST FRI THROUGH SUN. TEMPS WILL STILL BE 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THOUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE TRI-STATE THIS
EVENING...THEN STALL OUT SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND INTO MONDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT CONFIDENCE VERY LOW
FOR ANY ACTIVITY TO IMPACT ANY PARTICULAR AIRPORT. WILL AMEND AS
NECESSARY.

LIGHT SW OR VARIABLE WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. WSW-WNW
WINDS AT AROUND 10 KT DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE MONDAY MORNING AND
INTO EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD INCREASE DURING
THE AFTERNOON...10 TO 15 KT. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KTS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KJFK.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR. AFTERNOON SEABREEZES PROBABLE
EACH AFTERNOON.
.THURSDAY...MOST LIKELY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. AFTERNOON SEABREEZES PROBABLE.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.FRIDAY...MOST LIKELY VFR. E WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE. ISOLATED-
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
PRIMARILY A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH MON NIGHT. THE WINDS
WILL BE MAINLY LESS THAN 15 KT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH.
THERE COULD BE A ROUND OF GUSTS MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT THESE ARE
EXPECTED TO BE UP TO 20 KT. SEAS ON THE OCEAN MAY GET TO 5 FT
MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT...DID NOT
THINK WINDS WOULD SUPPLY A STRONG ENOUGH FETCH TO INCREASE SEAS TO
5 FT. THEREFORE CAPPED THE OCEAN SEAS AT 4 FT MONDAY NIGHT.

SUB-ADVSY CONDS ARE EXPECTED ON ALL WATERS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THROUGH MONDAY COULD RESULT IN A BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOUR...WITH PERHAPS A QUICK QUARTER OF AN INCH IN
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THERE COULD BE SOME LOCALLY MINOR FLOODING BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW WITH COVERAGE OF CONVECTION FORECAST
BEING LOW.

OVERALL...NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A RECENT FULL MOON...BRIEF MINOR INUNDATION IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE ACROSS THE TYPICALLY VULNERABLE
COASTAL LOCALES FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KOKX 310145
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
945 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND MOVE
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND MONDAY. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
LATE MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT IT WILL STILL BE WARM
AND MAINLY DRY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK. ADJUSTED POPS A BIT BASED ON
LATEST SHOWER DEVELOPMENT AND ALSO MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
T/TD/WIND AND SKY GRIDS TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT CONDS AND
TRENDS.

MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED HIGHER PVA MOVE MOSTLY SOUTH
OF THE REGION WITH A STRONGER ONE TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CANADA. AT THE SURFACE...THERE WILL BE A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
MOVING TOWARDS THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP AN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS
OVERHEAD FOR THE NIGHT. THE LOWS WERE TAKEN FROM THE RELATIVELY
WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE OF THE MAV MOS...WITH VALUES EXPECTED TO
BE WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW.

COOLING TEMPERATURES WITH COVERAGE OF ANY CONVECTION REMAINING
DECREASING INTO THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL
STILL BE SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE WITH SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY AHEAD OF
THE SURFACE TROUGH. WITH THESE AFOREMENTIONED FACTORS...THERE WILL
BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR TONIGHT
ACROSS ALL LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHORTWAVE WEAKENS SOUTH OF THE REGION MONDAY. A HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGE FROM THE WEST WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN. HOWEVER...AT THE
SURFACE...THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN AND THE DAYTIME SHOULD ENHANCE IT
WITH THE SEA BREEZE GIVING SOME INCREASE IN THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
WITHIN THE REGION ACROSS THE COAST. THE COOLER TEMPS WILL BE
ADVECTED INTO THE REGION FROM THE MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS WILL
CONVERGE AGAINST PLACES THAT HAVE SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE POPS OVERALL
WILL NOT BE HIGH...JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CLOSE TO THE COAST...BUT WITH THE AIRMASS BECOMING INCREASINGLY WARM
AND HUMID...INSTABILITY WILL BE LARGER AS CAPE INCREASES TO
APPROXIMATELY 500-1000 J/KG. INLAND...DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL. AN OVERALL VERY WARM DAY EXPECTED. A MAV/MET BLEND WAS USED
FOR HIGHS...YIELDING VALUES FROM THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS A
MAJORITY OF THE REGION.

ONCE THE HEATING WANES DOWN FOR MONDAY EVENING...THE ENVIRONMENT
WILL BECOME MORE STABLE AND THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE FROM THE WEST
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL HAVE PUSHED SOUTH
OF LONG ISLAND. THERE WILL BE A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS LATE. OVERALL...THE GREATER INFLUENCE WILL BE FROM THE
RIDGE AND THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGING WILL LEAD TO LESSENING
CLOUDS. HOWEVER...DESPITE LIGHT WINDS...LOWS WILL NOT CHANGE TOO
MUCH COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS NIGHT. THE RELATIVELY WARM AND
HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN THOUGH AS WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASES
AT THE 850MB LEVEL.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS ON
MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MAIN THEME OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE CONTINUATION OF
HEAT AND HUMIDITY ACROSS THE REGION.

MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE H5 PATTERN ACROSS NOAM
THROUGH THE PERIOD. A LATE SEASON HEAT WAVE IS EXPECTED FOR PARTS OF
THE TRI-STATE AREA THIS WEEK AS A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE ENCOMPASSES THE
EASTERN US. A SLY FLOW FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK WILL KEEP HUMIDITY
LEVELS HIGH AS WELL. THE HOTTEST DAY...HEAT AND HUMIDITY COMBINED
LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY WITH MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT. NOT EXPECTING HEAT ADVSY CRITERIA TO BE MET...ALTHOUGH HEAT
INDICES WILL RANGE BETWEEN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH WED WITH 90 TO 95 ON THU. ALTHOUGH PARTS OF NYC MAY REACH A
95 DEGREE HEAT INDEX THU...NOT EXPECTING IT FOR 2 CONSECUTIVE
DAYS. THEREFORE...NO ADVSY IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE CITY EITHER.

IT WILL BE A FAIRLY DRY WEEK WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH THE
WEAK BOUNDARY THU/THU EVE AND AGAIN FRI/FRI EVE AS ANOTHER WEAK
BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE N...THIS TIME WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE
ENERGY. THE FLOW BECOMES ELY FRI...BUT THE COMBINATION OF THE UPPER
ENERGY...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND THE OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCE COULD
TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS.

THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO PROVIDE SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT
ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST FRI THROUGH SUN. TEMPS WILL STILL BE 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THOUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE TRI-STATE THIS
EVENING...THEN STALL OUT SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND INTO MONDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT CONFIDENCE VERY LOW
FOR ANY ACTIVITY TO IMPACT ANY PARTICULAR AIRPORT. WILL AMEND AS
NECESSARY.

LIGHT SW OR VARIABLE WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. WSW-WNW
WINDS AT AROUND 10 KT DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE MONDAY MORNING AND
INTO EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD INCREASE DURING
THE AFTERNOON...10 TO 15 KT. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KTS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KJFK.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR. AFTERNOON SEABREEZES PROBABLE
EACH AFTERNOON.
.THURSDAY...MOST LIKELY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. AFTERNOON SEABREEZES PROBABLE.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.FRIDAY...MOST LIKELY VFR. E WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE. ISOLATED-
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
PRIMARILY A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH MON NIGHT. THE WINDS
WILL BE MAINLY LESS THAN 15 KT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH.
THERE COULD BE A ROUND OF GUSTS MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT THESE ARE
EXPECTED TO BE UP TO 20 KT. SEAS ON THE OCEAN MAY GET TO 5 FT
MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT...DID NOT
THINK WINDS WOULD SUPPLY A STRONG ENOUGH FETCH TO INCREASE SEAS TO
5 FT. THEREFORE CAPPED THE OCEAN SEAS AT 4 FT MONDAY NIGHT.

SUB-ADVSY CONDS ARE EXPECTED ON ALL WATERS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THROUGH MONDAY COULD RESULT IN A BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOUR...WITH PERHAPS A QUICK QUARTER OF AN INCH IN
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THERE COULD BE SOME LOCALLY MINOR FLOODING BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW WITH COVERAGE OF CONVECTION FORECAST
BEING LOW.

OVERALL...NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A RECENT FULL MOON...BRIEF MINOR INUNDATION IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE ACROSS THE TYPICALLY VULNERABLE
COASTAL LOCALES FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KALY 302343
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
743 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THIS WEEK WILL BE HOT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS
THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. HIGHS MAINLY IN 80S ARE
EXPECTED MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH SOME 90S ANTICIPATED UP THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 743 PM EDT...A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF
THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM ALLOWED FOR SOME SCT RAIN SHOWERS OVER
SOUTHERN AREAS THIS EVENING...BUT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...THESE SHOWERS HAVE STARTED TO DIMINISH. KENX RADAR SHOWS
MOST AREAS ARE NOW RAIN FREE...AND IT LOOKS TO BE DRY THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS THE DISTURBANCE SLOWLY MOVES AWAY FROM THE
AREA.

WITH THE DISTURBANCE MOVING AWAY...CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE
TONIGHT AND WITH WINDS BECOMING CALM AND DEW POINTS INTO THE 60S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM
ESPECIALLY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. LOWS TONIGHT ARE FORECAST A BIT
WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT...IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGING WILL BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT AND TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM. GUIDANCE INDICATES A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...HOWEVER MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED
AND THE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING EASTWARD.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY AROUND 10 DEGREES TO START THE
WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S MONDAY AND IN THE 80S
TUESDAY. DEW POINTS IN THE 60S WITH MAKE FOR HUMID/MUGGY CONDITIONS.

ALBANY`S LONGEST HEAT WAVE HAS OCCURRED DURING THIS TIME OF
YEAR...PLEASE REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR DETAILS AND FOR
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEK.

 &&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL LOOKS TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

H850 TEMPS LOOK TO AVERAGE BETWEEN +16C TO +18C THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
MOST OF THE TIME THE REGION WILL BE CAPPED SO EVEN WITH A SUFFICIENT
AMOUNT OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SURFACE INSTABILITY...IT WILL
BE DIFFICULT FOR CONVECTION TO BE REALIZED.

THE BIG STORY WILL BE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES...WHICH LOOK TO CREST
AROUND 90 IN THE VALLEYS EACH DAY...MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S. AT THIS
POINT...DEWPOINTS LOOK TO ALSO BE IN THE 60S WHICH WOULD KEEP
APPARENT TEMPERATURES (WHICH IS THE WHAT THE TEMPERATURE FEELS WHEN
COMBINED WITH HUMIDITY) BELOW 100 DEGREES.

WE HAVE KEPT MOST DAYS COMPLETELY DRY. THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS MIGHT BE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THURSDAY BOTH THE EUROPEAN (ECWMF) AND GFS
INDICATED A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT (OR JUST A SURFACE TROUGH) PASSING
THROUGH WHICH MIGHT BREAK THE CAP AND TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY...THE GFS INDICATED SOME CONVECTION POSSIBLY THE RESULT OF AN
EASTERLY FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. THIS
SCENARIO COULD ADD A LITTLE MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND PERHAPS
WORKING WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THE ECMWF DOES NOT INDICATE THIS FEATURE ON FRIDAY
AS IT BUILD THE HIGH CLOSER TO OUR REGION WITH REALLY NOT MUCH FLOW
AT ALL AND PRODUCING MORE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION.

NOW...WE DECIDED TO INCLUDE 20 POPS BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT AT
NO OTHER TIME FRAME.

THE SKY WILL RANGE FROM SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE
DAY...MAINLY CLEAR AT NIGHT. THERE COULD BE PATCHY VALLEY FOG BUT
DID NOT INCLUDE IT DURING THE EXTENDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL LOOKS TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

H850 TEMPS LOOK TO AVERAGE BETWEEN +16C TO +18C THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
MOST OF THE TIME THE REGION WILL BE CAPPED SO EVEN WITH A SUFFICIENT
AMOUNT OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SURFACE INSTABILITY...IT WILL
BE DIFFICULT FOR CONVECTION TO BE REALIZED.

THE BIG STORY WILL BE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES...WHICH LOOK TO CREST
AROUND 90 IN THE VALLEYS EACH DAY...MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S. AT THIS
POINT...DEWPOINTS LOOK TO ALSO BE IN THE 60S WHICH WOULD KEEP
APPARENT TEMPERATURES (WHICH IS THE WHAT THE TEMPERATURE FEELS WHEN
COMBINED WITH HUMIDITY) BELOW 100 DEGREES.

WE HAVE KEPT MOST DAYS COMPLETELY DRY. THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS MIGHT BE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THURSDAY BOTH THE EUROPEAN (ECWMF) AND GFS
INDICATED A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT (OR JUST A SURFACE TROUGH) PASSING
THROUGH WHICH MIGHT BREAK THE CAP AND TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY...THE GFS INDICATED SOME CONVECTION POSSIBLY THE RESULT OF AN
EASTERLY FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. THIS
SCENARIO COULD ADD A LITTLE MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND PERHAPS
WORKING WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THE ECMWF DOES NOT INDICATE THIS FEATURE ON FRIDAY
AS IT BUILD THE HIGH CLOSER TO OUR REGION WITH REALLY NOT MUCH FLOW
AT ALL AND PRODUCING MORE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION.

NOW...WE DECIDED TO INCLUDE 20 POPS BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT AT
NO OTHER TIME FRAME.

THE SKY WILL RANGE FROM SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE
DAY...MAINLY CLEAR AT NIGHT. THERE COULD BE PATCHY VALLEY FOG BUT
DID NOT INCLUDE IT DURING THE EXTENDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A DEPARTING NEARBY DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO ALLOW FOR CLOUDS
ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS AROUND 8-10
KFT. CLOUDS WILL GENERALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS THIS DISTURBANCE
MOVES AWAY. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF IFR FOG LATE TONIGHT
AT KPSF/GFL...ALTHOUGH IT WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY
THE CLOUDS DEPART. KALB/KPOU COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR BR
AROUND SUNRISE...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE AT
THESE SITES. WINDS WILL BE CALM OVERNIGHT. ANY FOG LOOKS TO
DISSIPATE BY AROUND 12Z.

DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR ALL
TAF SITES WITH SCT CIRRUS CLOUDS AROUND. SOME SCT CU MAY DEVELOP
BY AFTN...MAINLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. S-SW WINDS WILL BE AROUND
5-10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
TUE: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECT FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

MOST OF THE REGION HAS NOT SEEN SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN OVER A
WEEK. THIS HAD LED TO THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX APPROACHING
300 IN OUR SOUTHERN MOST COUNTIES...AND LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO RISE
OVER THE DAYS TO COME.

WINDS DURING THE NEXT WEEK LOOK TO REMAIN CALM AT NIGHT AND
LIGHT DURING THE DAY...GENERALLY UNDER 10 MPH.

A FULL OR NEARLY FULL RECOVERY IS EXPECTED EACH OF THE NEXT
SEVERAL NIGHTS ALLOWING FOR THE FORMATION OF DEW.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE
MODERATE RANGE...40 TO 60 PERCENT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED AUGUST 27
THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST 29, 30
AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY.
DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 302343
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
743 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THIS WEEK WILL BE HOT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS
THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. HIGHS MAINLY IN 80S ARE
EXPECTED MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH SOME 90S ANTICIPATED UP THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 743 PM EDT...A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF
THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM ALLOWED FOR SOME SCT RAIN SHOWERS OVER
SOUTHERN AREAS THIS EVENING...BUT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...THESE SHOWERS HAVE STARTED TO DIMINISH. KENX RADAR SHOWS
MOST AREAS ARE NOW RAIN FREE...AND IT LOOKS TO BE DRY THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS THE DISTURBANCE SLOWLY MOVES AWAY FROM THE
AREA.

WITH THE DISTURBANCE MOVING AWAY...CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE
TONIGHT AND WITH WINDS BECOMING CALM AND DEW POINTS INTO THE 60S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM
ESPECIALLY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. LOWS TONIGHT ARE FORECAST A BIT
WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT...IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGING WILL BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT AND TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM. GUIDANCE INDICATES A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...HOWEVER MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED
AND THE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING EASTWARD.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY AROUND 10 DEGREES TO START THE
WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S MONDAY AND IN THE 80S
TUESDAY. DEW POINTS IN THE 60S WITH MAKE FOR HUMID/MUGGY CONDITIONS.

ALBANY`S LONGEST HEAT WAVE HAS OCCURRED DURING THIS TIME OF
YEAR...PLEASE REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR DETAILS AND FOR
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEK.

 &&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL LOOKS TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

H850 TEMPS LOOK TO AVERAGE BETWEEN +16C TO +18C THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
MOST OF THE TIME THE REGION WILL BE CAPPED SO EVEN WITH A SUFFICIENT
AMOUNT OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SURFACE INSTABILITY...IT WILL
BE DIFFICULT FOR CONVECTION TO BE REALIZED.

THE BIG STORY WILL BE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES...WHICH LOOK TO CREST
AROUND 90 IN THE VALLEYS EACH DAY...MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S. AT THIS
POINT...DEWPOINTS LOOK TO ALSO BE IN THE 60S WHICH WOULD KEEP
APPARENT TEMPERATURES (WHICH IS THE WHAT THE TEMPERATURE FEELS WHEN
COMBINED WITH HUMIDITY) BELOW 100 DEGREES.

WE HAVE KEPT MOST DAYS COMPLETELY DRY. THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS MIGHT BE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THURSDAY BOTH THE EUROPEAN (ECWMF) AND GFS
INDICATED A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT (OR JUST A SURFACE TROUGH) PASSING
THROUGH WHICH MIGHT BREAK THE CAP AND TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY...THE GFS INDICATED SOME CONVECTION POSSIBLY THE RESULT OF AN
EASTERLY FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. THIS
SCENARIO COULD ADD A LITTLE MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND PERHAPS
WORKING WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THE ECMWF DOES NOT INDICATE THIS FEATURE ON FRIDAY
AS IT BUILD THE HIGH CLOSER TO OUR REGION WITH REALLY NOT MUCH FLOW
AT ALL AND PRODUCING MORE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION.

NOW...WE DECIDED TO INCLUDE 20 POPS BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT AT
NO OTHER TIME FRAME.

THE SKY WILL RANGE FROM SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE
DAY...MAINLY CLEAR AT NIGHT. THERE COULD BE PATCHY VALLEY FOG BUT
DID NOT INCLUDE IT DURING THE EXTENDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL LOOKS TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

H850 TEMPS LOOK TO AVERAGE BETWEEN +16C TO +18C THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
MOST OF THE TIME THE REGION WILL BE CAPPED SO EVEN WITH A SUFFICIENT
AMOUNT OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SURFACE INSTABILITY...IT WILL
BE DIFFICULT FOR CONVECTION TO BE REALIZED.

THE BIG STORY WILL BE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES...WHICH LOOK TO CREST
AROUND 90 IN THE VALLEYS EACH DAY...MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S. AT THIS
POINT...DEWPOINTS LOOK TO ALSO BE IN THE 60S WHICH WOULD KEEP
APPARENT TEMPERATURES (WHICH IS THE WHAT THE TEMPERATURE FEELS WHEN
COMBINED WITH HUMIDITY) BELOW 100 DEGREES.

WE HAVE KEPT MOST DAYS COMPLETELY DRY. THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS MIGHT BE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THURSDAY BOTH THE EUROPEAN (ECWMF) AND GFS
INDICATED A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT (OR JUST A SURFACE TROUGH) PASSING
THROUGH WHICH MIGHT BREAK THE CAP AND TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY...THE GFS INDICATED SOME CONVECTION POSSIBLY THE RESULT OF AN
EASTERLY FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. THIS
SCENARIO COULD ADD A LITTLE MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND PERHAPS
WORKING WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THE ECMWF DOES NOT INDICATE THIS FEATURE ON FRIDAY
AS IT BUILD THE HIGH CLOSER TO OUR REGION WITH REALLY NOT MUCH FLOW
AT ALL AND PRODUCING MORE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION.

NOW...WE DECIDED TO INCLUDE 20 POPS BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT AT
NO OTHER TIME FRAME.

THE SKY WILL RANGE FROM SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE
DAY...MAINLY CLEAR AT NIGHT. THERE COULD BE PATCHY VALLEY FOG BUT
DID NOT INCLUDE IT DURING THE EXTENDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A DEPARTING NEARBY DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO ALLOW FOR CLOUDS
ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS AROUND 8-10
KFT. CLOUDS WILL GENERALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS THIS DISTURBANCE
MOVES AWAY. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF IFR FOG LATE TONIGHT
AT KPSF/GFL...ALTHOUGH IT WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY
THE CLOUDS DEPART. KALB/KPOU COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR BR
AROUND SUNRISE...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE AT
THESE SITES. WINDS WILL BE CALM OVERNIGHT. ANY FOG LOOKS TO
DISSIPATE BY AROUND 12Z.

DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR ALL
TAF SITES WITH SCT CIRRUS CLOUDS AROUND. SOME SCT CU MAY DEVELOP
BY AFTN...MAINLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. S-SW WINDS WILL BE AROUND
5-10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
TUE: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECT FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

MOST OF THE REGION HAS NOT SEEN SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN OVER A
WEEK. THIS HAD LED TO THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX APPROACHING
300 IN OUR SOUTHERN MOST COUNTIES...AND LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO RISE
OVER THE DAYS TO COME.

WINDS DURING THE NEXT WEEK LOOK TO REMAIN CALM AT NIGHT AND
LIGHT DURING THE DAY...GENERALLY UNDER 10 MPH.

A FULL OR NEARLY FULL RECOVERY IS EXPECTED EACH OF THE NEXT
SEVERAL NIGHTS ALLOWING FOR THE FORMATION OF DEW.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE
MODERATE RANGE...40 TO 60 PERCENT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED AUGUST 27
THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST 29, 30
AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY.
DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 302343
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
743 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THIS WEEK WILL BE HOT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS
THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. HIGHS MAINLY IN 80S ARE
EXPECTED MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH SOME 90S ANTICIPATED UP THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 743 PM EDT...A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF
THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM ALLOWED FOR SOME SCT RAIN SHOWERS OVER
SOUTHERN AREAS THIS EVENING...BUT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...THESE SHOWERS HAVE STARTED TO DIMINISH. KENX RADAR SHOWS
MOST AREAS ARE NOW RAIN FREE...AND IT LOOKS TO BE DRY THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS THE DISTURBANCE SLOWLY MOVES AWAY FROM THE
AREA.

WITH THE DISTURBANCE MOVING AWAY...CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE
TONIGHT AND WITH WINDS BECOMING CALM AND DEW POINTS INTO THE 60S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM
ESPECIALLY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. LOWS TONIGHT ARE FORECAST A BIT
WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT...IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGING WILL BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT AND TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM. GUIDANCE INDICATES A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...HOWEVER MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED
AND THE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING EASTWARD.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY AROUND 10 DEGREES TO START THE
WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S MONDAY AND IN THE 80S
TUESDAY. DEW POINTS IN THE 60S WITH MAKE FOR HUMID/MUGGY CONDITIONS.

ALBANY`S LONGEST HEAT WAVE HAS OCCURRED DURING THIS TIME OF
YEAR...PLEASE REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR DETAILS AND FOR
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEK.

 &&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL LOOKS TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

H850 TEMPS LOOK TO AVERAGE BETWEEN +16C TO +18C THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
MOST OF THE TIME THE REGION WILL BE CAPPED SO EVEN WITH A SUFFICIENT
AMOUNT OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SURFACE INSTABILITY...IT WILL
BE DIFFICULT FOR CONVECTION TO BE REALIZED.

THE BIG STORY WILL BE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES...WHICH LOOK TO CREST
AROUND 90 IN THE VALLEYS EACH DAY...MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S. AT THIS
POINT...DEWPOINTS LOOK TO ALSO BE IN THE 60S WHICH WOULD KEEP
APPARENT TEMPERATURES (WHICH IS THE WHAT THE TEMPERATURE FEELS WHEN
COMBINED WITH HUMIDITY) BELOW 100 DEGREES.

WE HAVE KEPT MOST DAYS COMPLETELY DRY. THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS MIGHT BE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THURSDAY BOTH THE EUROPEAN (ECWMF) AND GFS
INDICATED A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT (OR JUST A SURFACE TROUGH) PASSING
THROUGH WHICH MIGHT BREAK THE CAP AND TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY...THE GFS INDICATED SOME CONVECTION POSSIBLY THE RESULT OF AN
EASTERLY FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. THIS
SCENARIO COULD ADD A LITTLE MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND PERHAPS
WORKING WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THE ECMWF DOES NOT INDICATE THIS FEATURE ON FRIDAY
AS IT BUILD THE HIGH CLOSER TO OUR REGION WITH REALLY NOT MUCH FLOW
AT ALL AND PRODUCING MORE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION.

NOW...WE DECIDED TO INCLUDE 20 POPS BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT AT
NO OTHER TIME FRAME.

THE SKY WILL RANGE FROM SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE
DAY...MAINLY CLEAR AT NIGHT. THERE COULD BE PATCHY VALLEY FOG BUT
DID NOT INCLUDE IT DURING THE EXTENDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL LOOKS TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

H850 TEMPS LOOK TO AVERAGE BETWEEN +16C TO +18C THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
MOST OF THE TIME THE REGION WILL BE CAPPED SO EVEN WITH A SUFFICIENT
AMOUNT OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SURFACE INSTABILITY...IT WILL
BE DIFFICULT FOR CONVECTION TO BE REALIZED.

THE BIG STORY WILL BE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES...WHICH LOOK TO CREST
AROUND 90 IN THE VALLEYS EACH DAY...MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S. AT THIS
POINT...DEWPOINTS LOOK TO ALSO BE IN THE 60S WHICH WOULD KEEP
APPARENT TEMPERATURES (WHICH IS THE WHAT THE TEMPERATURE FEELS WHEN
COMBINED WITH HUMIDITY) BELOW 100 DEGREES.

WE HAVE KEPT MOST DAYS COMPLETELY DRY. THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS MIGHT BE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THURSDAY BOTH THE EUROPEAN (ECWMF) AND GFS
INDICATED A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT (OR JUST A SURFACE TROUGH) PASSING
THROUGH WHICH MIGHT BREAK THE CAP AND TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY...THE GFS INDICATED SOME CONVECTION POSSIBLY THE RESULT OF AN
EASTERLY FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. THIS
SCENARIO COULD ADD A LITTLE MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND PERHAPS
WORKING WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THE ECMWF DOES NOT INDICATE THIS FEATURE ON FRIDAY
AS IT BUILD THE HIGH CLOSER TO OUR REGION WITH REALLY NOT MUCH FLOW
AT ALL AND PRODUCING MORE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION.

NOW...WE DECIDED TO INCLUDE 20 POPS BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT AT
NO OTHER TIME FRAME.

THE SKY WILL RANGE FROM SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE
DAY...MAINLY CLEAR AT NIGHT. THERE COULD BE PATCHY VALLEY FOG BUT
DID NOT INCLUDE IT DURING THE EXTENDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A DEPARTING NEARBY DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO ALLOW FOR CLOUDS
ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS AROUND 8-10
KFT. CLOUDS WILL GENERALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS THIS DISTURBANCE
MOVES AWAY. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF IFR FOG LATE TONIGHT
AT KPSF/GFL...ALTHOUGH IT WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY
THE CLOUDS DEPART. KALB/KPOU COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR BR
AROUND SUNRISE...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE AT
THESE SITES. WINDS WILL BE CALM OVERNIGHT. ANY FOG LOOKS TO
DISSIPATE BY AROUND 12Z.

DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR ALL
TAF SITES WITH SCT CIRRUS CLOUDS AROUND. SOME SCT CU MAY DEVELOP
BY AFTN...MAINLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. S-SW WINDS WILL BE AROUND
5-10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
TUE: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECT FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

MOST OF THE REGION HAS NOT SEEN SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN OVER A
WEEK. THIS HAD LED TO THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX APPROACHING
300 IN OUR SOUTHERN MOST COUNTIES...AND LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO RISE
OVER THE DAYS TO COME.

WINDS DURING THE NEXT WEEK LOOK TO REMAIN CALM AT NIGHT AND
LIGHT DURING THE DAY...GENERALLY UNDER 10 MPH.

A FULL OR NEARLY FULL RECOVERY IS EXPECTED EACH OF THE NEXT
SEVERAL NIGHTS ALLOWING FOR THE FORMATION OF DEW.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE
MODERATE RANGE...40 TO 60 PERCENT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED AUGUST 27
THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST 29, 30
AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY.
DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...IAA



000
FXUS61 KALY 302343
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
743 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THIS WEEK WILL BE HOT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS
THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. HIGHS MAINLY IN 80S ARE
EXPECTED MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH SOME 90S ANTICIPATED UP THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 743 PM EDT...A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF
THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM ALLOWED FOR SOME SCT RAIN SHOWERS OVER
SOUTHERN AREAS THIS EVENING...BUT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...THESE SHOWERS HAVE STARTED TO DIMINISH. KENX RADAR SHOWS
MOST AREAS ARE NOW RAIN FREE...AND IT LOOKS TO BE DRY THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS THE DISTURBANCE SLOWLY MOVES AWAY FROM THE
AREA.

WITH THE DISTURBANCE MOVING AWAY...CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE
TONIGHT AND WITH WINDS BECOMING CALM AND DEW POINTS INTO THE 60S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM
ESPECIALLY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. LOWS TONIGHT ARE FORECAST A BIT
WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT...IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGING WILL BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT AND TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM. GUIDANCE INDICATES A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...HOWEVER MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED
AND THE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING EASTWARD.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY AROUND 10 DEGREES TO START THE
WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S MONDAY AND IN THE 80S
TUESDAY. DEW POINTS IN THE 60S WITH MAKE FOR HUMID/MUGGY CONDITIONS.

ALBANY`S LONGEST HEAT WAVE HAS OCCURRED DURING THIS TIME OF
YEAR...PLEASE REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR DETAILS AND FOR
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEK.

 &&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL LOOKS TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

H850 TEMPS LOOK TO AVERAGE BETWEEN +16C TO +18C THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
MOST OF THE TIME THE REGION WILL BE CAPPED SO EVEN WITH A SUFFICIENT
AMOUNT OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SURFACE INSTABILITY...IT WILL
BE DIFFICULT FOR CONVECTION TO BE REALIZED.

THE BIG STORY WILL BE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES...WHICH LOOK TO CREST
AROUND 90 IN THE VALLEYS EACH DAY...MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S. AT THIS
POINT...DEWPOINTS LOOK TO ALSO BE IN THE 60S WHICH WOULD KEEP
APPARENT TEMPERATURES (WHICH IS THE WHAT THE TEMPERATURE FEELS WHEN
COMBINED WITH HUMIDITY) BELOW 100 DEGREES.

WE HAVE KEPT MOST DAYS COMPLETELY DRY. THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS MIGHT BE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THURSDAY BOTH THE EUROPEAN (ECWMF) AND GFS
INDICATED A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT (OR JUST A SURFACE TROUGH) PASSING
THROUGH WHICH MIGHT BREAK THE CAP AND TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY...THE GFS INDICATED SOME CONVECTION POSSIBLY THE RESULT OF AN
EASTERLY FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. THIS
SCENARIO COULD ADD A LITTLE MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND PERHAPS
WORKING WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THE ECMWF DOES NOT INDICATE THIS FEATURE ON FRIDAY
AS IT BUILD THE HIGH CLOSER TO OUR REGION WITH REALLY NOT MUCH FLOW
AT ALL AND PRODUCING MORE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION.

NOW...WE DECIDED TO INCLUDE 20 POPS BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT AT
NO OTHER TIME FRAME.

THE SKY WILL RANGE FROM SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE
DAY...MAINLY CLEAR AT NIGHT. THERE COULD BE PATCHY VALLEY FOG BUT
DID NOT INCLUDE IT DURING THE EXTENDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL LOOKS TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

H850 TEMPS LOOK TO AVERAGE BETWEEN +16C TO +18C THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
MOST OF THE TIME THE REGION WILL BE CAPPED SO EVEN WITH A SUFFICIENT
AMOUNT OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SURFACE INSTABILITY...IT WILL
BE DIFFICULT FOR CONVECTION TO BE REALIZED.

THE BIG STORY WILL BE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES...WHICH LOOK TO CREST
AROUND 90 IN THE VALLEYS EACH DAY...MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S. AT THIS
POINT...DEWPOINTS LOOK TO ALSO BE IN THE 60S WHICH WOULD KEEP
APPARENT TEMPERATURES (WHICH IS THE WHAT THE TEMPERATURE FEELS WHEN
COMBINED WITH HUMIDITY) BELOW 100 DEGREES.

WE HAVE KEPT MOST DAYS COMPLETELY DRY. THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS MIGHT BE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THURSDAY BOTH THE EUROPEAN (ECWMF) AND GFS
INDICATED A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT (OR JUST A SURFACE TROUGH) PASSING
THROUGH WHICH MIGHT BREAK THE CAP AND TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY...THE GFS INDICATED SOME CONVECTION POSSIBLY THE RESULT OF AN
EASTERLY FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. THIS
SCENARIO COULD ADD A LITTLE MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND PERHAPS
WORKING WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THE ECMWF DOES NOT INDICATE THIS FEATURE ON FRIDAY
AS IT BUILD THE HIGH CLOSER TO OUR REGION WITH REALLY NOT MUCH FLOW
AT ALL AND PRODUCING MORE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION.

NOW...WE DECIDED TO INCLUDE 20 POPS BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT AT
NO OTHER TIME FRAME.

THE SKY WILL RANGE FROM SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE
DAY...MAINLY CLEAR AT NIGHT. THERE COULD BE PATCHY VALLEY FOG BUT
DID NOT INCLUDE IT DURING THE EXTENDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A DEPARTING NEARBY DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO ALLOW FOR CLOUDS
ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS AROUND 8-10
KFT. CLOUDS WILL GENERALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS THIS DISTURBANCE
MOVES AWAY. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF IFR FOG LATE TONIGHT
AT KPSF/GFL...ALTHOUGH IT WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY
THE CLOUDS DEPART. KALB/KPOU COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR BR
AROUND SUNRISE...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE AT
THESE SITES. WINDS WILL BE CALM OVERNIGHT. ANY FOG LOOKS TO
DISSIPATE BY AROUND 12Z.

DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR ALL
TAF SITES WITH SCT CIRRUS CLOUDS AROUND. SOME SCT CU MAY DEVELOP
BY AFTN...MAINLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. S-SW WINDS WILL BE AROUND
5-10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
TUE: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECT FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

MOST OF THE REGION HAS NOT SEEN SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN OVER A
WEEK. THIS HAD LED TO THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX APPROACHING
300 IN OUR SOUTHERN MOST COUNTIES...AND LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO RISE
OVER THE DAYS TO COME.

WINDS DURING THE NEXT WEEK LOOK TO REMAIN CALM AT NIGHT AND
LIGHT DURING THE DAY...GENERALLY UNDER 10 MPH.

A FULL OR NEARLY FULL RECOVERY IS EXPECTED EACH OF THE NEXT
SEVERAL NIGHTS ALLOWING FOR THE FORMATION OF DEW.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE
MODERATE RANGE...40 TO 60 PERCENT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED AUGUST 27
THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST 29, 30
AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY.
DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...IAA



000
FXUS61 KOKX 302333
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
733 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND MOVE SOUTH
OF LONG ISLAND MONDAY. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS LATE
MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT IT WILL STILL BE WARM AND MAINLY
DRY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK. ADJUSTED POPS A BIT THIS EVE AND
ALSO MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO T/TD/WIND AND SKY GRIDS TO BETTER
REFLECT CURRENT CONDS AND TRENDS.

MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED HIGHER PVA MOVE MOSTLY SOUTH
OF THE REGION WITH A STRONGER ONE TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CANADA. AT THE SURFACE...THERE WILL BE A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
MOVING TOWARDS THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP AN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS
OVERHEAD FOR THE NIGHT. THE LOWS WERE TAKEN FROM THE RELATIVELY
WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE OF THE MAV MOS...WITH VALUES EXPECTED TO
BE WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW.

COOLING TEMPERATURES WITH COVERAGE OF ANY CONVECTION REMAINING
DECREASING INTO THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL
STILL BE SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE WITH SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY AHEAD OF
THE SURFACE TROUGH. WITH THESE AFOREMENTIONED FACTORS...THERE WILL
BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR TONIGHT
ACROSS ALL LOCATIONS.

THERE IS A CONTINUED MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP
CURRENTS INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHORTWAVE WEAKENS SOUTH OF THE REGION MONDAY. A HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGE FROM THE WEST WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN. HOWEVER...AT THE
SURFACE...THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN AND THE DAYTIME SHOULD ENHANCE IT
WITH THE SEA BREEZE GIVING SOME INCREASE IN THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
WITHIN THE REGION ACROSS THE COAST. THE COOLER TEMPS WILL BE
ADVECTED INTO THE REGION FROM THE MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS WILL
CONVERGE AGAINST PLACES THAT HAVE SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE POPS OVERALL
WILL NOT BE HIGH...JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CLOSE TO THE COAST...BUT WITH THE AIRMASS BECOMING INCREASINGLY WARM
AND HUMID...INSTABILITY WILL BE LARGER AS CAPE INCREASES TO
APPROXIMATELY 500-1000 J/KG. INLAND...DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL. AN OVERALL VERY WARM DAY EXPECTED. A MAV/MET BLEND WAS USED
FOR HIGHS...YIELDING VALUES FROM THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS A
MAJORITY OF THE REGION.

ONCE THE HEATING WANES DOWN FOR MONDAY EVENING...THE ENVIRONMENT
WILL BECOME MORE STABLE AND THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE FROM THE WEST
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL HAVE PUSHED SOUTH
OF LONG ISLAND. THERE WILL BE A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS LATE. OVERALL...THE GREATER INFLUENCE WILL BE FROM THE
RIDGE AND THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGING WILL LEAD TO LESSENING
CLOUDS. HOWEVER...DESPITE LIGHT WINDS...LOWS WILL NOT CHANGE TOO
MUCH COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS NIGHT. THE RELATIVELY WARM AND
HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN THOUGH AS WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASES
AT THE 850MB LEVEL.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS ON
MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MAIN THEME OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE CONTINUATION OF
HEAT AND HUMIDITY ACROSS THE REGION.

MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE H5 PATTERN ACROSS NOAM
THROUGH THE PERIOD. A LATE SEASON HEAT WAVE IS EXPECTED FOR PARTS OF
THE TRI-STATE AREA THIS WEEK AS A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE ENCOMPASSES THE
EASTERN US. A SLY FLOW FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK WILL KEEP HUMIDITY
LEVELS HIGH AS WELL. THE HOTTEST DAY...HEAT AND HUMIDITY COMBINED
LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY WITH MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT. NOT EXPECTING HEAT ADVSY CRITERIA TO BE MET...ALTHOUGH HEAT
INDICES WILL RANGE BETWEEN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH WED WITH 90 TO 95 ON THU. ALTHOUGH PARTS OF NYC MAY REACH A
95 DEGREE HEAT INDEX THU...NOT EXPECTING IT FOR 2 CONSECUTIVE
DAYS. THEREFORE...NO ADVSY IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE CITY EITHER.

IT WILL BE A FAIRLY DRY WEEK WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH THE
WEAK BOUNDARY THU/THU EVE AND AGAIN FRI/FRI EVE AS ANOTHER WEAK
BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE N...THIS TIME WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE
ENERGY. THE FLOW BECOMES ELY FRI...BUT THE COMBINATION OF THE UPPER
ENERGY...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND THE OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCE COULD
TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS.

THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO PROVIDE SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT
ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST FRI THROUGH SUN. TEMPS WILL STILL BE 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THOUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE TRI-STATE THIS
EVENING...THEN STALL OUT SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND INTO MONDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT CONFIDENCE VERY LOW
FOR ANY ACTIVITY TO IMPACT ANY PARTICULAR AIRPORT.

WINDS BECOME SW UNDER 10 KT AT CITY TERMINALS TONIGHT AND LIGHT SW
OR VARIABLE ELSEWHERE. WSW-WNW WINDS AT AROUND 10 KT DEVELOP BY MID
TO LATE MONDAY MORNING AND INTO EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS
SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON...10 TO 15 KT. OCCASIONAL GUSTS
TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KJFK.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR. AFTERNOON SEABREEZES PROBABLE
EACH AFTERNOON.
.THURSDAY...MOST LIKELY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. AFTERNOON SEABREEZES PROBABLE.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.FRIDAY...MOST LIKELY VFR. E WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE. ISOLATED-
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
PRIMARILY A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH MON NIGHT. THE WINDS
WILL BE MAINLY LESS THAN 15 KT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH.
THERE COULD BE A ROUND OF GUSTS MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT THESE ARE
EXPECTED TO BE UP TO 20 KT. SEAS ON THE OCEAN MAY GET TO 5 FT
MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT...DID NOT
THINK WINDS WOULD SUPPLY A STRONG ENOUGH FETCH TO INCREASE SEAS TO
5 FT. THEREFORE CAPPED THE OCEAN SEAS AT 4 FT MONDAY NIGHT.

SUB-ADVSY CONDS ARE EXPECTED ON ALL WATERS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THROUGH MONDAY COULD RESULT IN A BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOUR...WITH PERHAPS A QUICK QUARTER OF AN INCH IN
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THERE COULD BE SOME LOCALLY MINOR FLOODING BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW WITH COVERAGE OF CONVECTION FORECAST
BEING LOW.

OVERALL...NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A RECENT FULL MOON...BRIEF MINOR INUNDATION IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE ACROSS THE TYPICALLY VULNERABLE
COASTAL LOCALES INTO THE START OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JM
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...24/JM
HYDROLOGY...24/JM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KOKX 302328
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
728 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND MOVE SOUTH
OF LONG ISLAND MONDAY. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS LATE
MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT IT WILL STILL BE WARM AND MAINLY
DRY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK. ADJUSTED POPS A BIT THIS EVE AND
ALSO MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO T/TD/WIND AND SKY GRIDS TO BETTER
REFLECT CURRENT CONDS AND TRENDS.

MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED HIGHER PVA MOVE MOSTLY SOUTH
OF THE REGION WITH A STRONGER ONE TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CANADA. AT THE SURFACE...THERE WILL BE A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
MOVING TOWARDS THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP AN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS
OVERHEAD FOR THE NIGHT. THE LOWS WERE TAKEN FROM THE RELATIVELY
WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE OF THE MAV MOS...WITH VALUES EXPECTED TO
BE WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW.

COOLING TEMPERATURES WITH COVERAGE OF ANY CONVECTION REMAINING
DECREASING INTO THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL
STILL BE SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE WITH SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY AHEAD OF
THE SURFACE TROUGH. WITH THESE AFOREMENTIONED FACTORS...THERE WILL
BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR TONIGHT
ACROSS ALL LOCATIONS.

THERE IS A CONTINUED MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP
CURRENTS INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHORTWAVE WEAKENS SOUTH OF THE REGION MONDAY. A HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGE FROM THE WEST WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN. HOWEVER...AT THE
SURFACE...THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN AND THE DAYTIME SHOULD ENHANCE IT
WITH THE SEA BREEZE GIVING SOME INCREASE IN THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
WITHIN THE REGION ACROSS THE COAST. THE COOLER TEMPS WILL BE
ADVECTED INTO THE REGION FROM THE MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS WILL
CONVERGE AGAINST PLACES THAT HAVE SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE POPS OVERALL
WILL NOT BE HIGH...JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CLOSE TO THE COAST...BUT WITH THE AIRMASS BECOMING INCREASINGLY WARM
AND HUMID...INSTABILITY WILL BE LARGER AS CAPE INCREASES TO
APPROXIMATELY 500-1000 J/KG. INLAND...DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL. AN OVERALL VERY WARM DAY EXPECTED. A MAV/MET BLEND WAS USED
FOR HIGHS...YIELDING VALUES FROM THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS A
MAJORITY OF THE REGION.

ONCE THE HEATING WANES DOWN FOR MONDAY EVENING...THE ENVIRONMENT
WILL BECOME MORE STABLE AND THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE FROM THE WEST
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL HAVE PUSHED SOUTH
OF LONG ISLAND. THERE WILL BE A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS LATE. OVERALL...THE GREATER INFLUENCE WILL BE FROM THE
RIDGE AND THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGING WILL LEAD TO LESSENING
CLOUDS. HOWEVER...DESPITE LIGHT WINDS...LOWS WILL NOT CHANGE TOO
MUCH COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS NIGHT. THE RELATIVELY WARM AND
HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN THOUGH AS WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASES
AT THE 850MB LEVEL.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS ON
MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MAIN THEME OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE CONTINUATION OF
HEAT AND HUMIDITY ACROSS THE REGION.

MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE H5 PATTERN ACROSS NOAM
THROUGH THE PERIOD. A LATE SEASON HEAT WAVE IS EXPECTED FOR PARTS OF
THE TRI-STATE AREA THIS WEEK AS A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE ENCOMPASSES THE
EASTERN US. A SLY FLOW FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK WILL KEEP HUMIDITY
LEVELS HIGH AS WELL. THE HOTTEST DAY...HEAT AND HUMIDITY COMBINED
LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY WITH MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT. NOT EXPECTING HEAT ADVSY CRITERIA TO BE MET...ALTHOUGH HEAT
INDICES WILL RANGE BETWEEN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH WED WITH 90 TO 95 ON THU. ALTHOUGH PARTS OF NYC MAY REACH A
95 DEGREE HEAT INDEX THU...NOT EXPECTING IT FOR 2 CONSECUTIVE
DAYS. THEREFORE...NO ADVSY IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE CITY EITHER.

IT WILL BE A FAIRLY DRY WEEK WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH THE
WEAK BOUNDARY THU/THU EVE AND AGAIN FRI/FRI EVE AS ANOTHER WEAK
BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE N...THIS TIME WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE
ENERGY. THE FLOW BECOMES ELY FRI...BUT THE COMBINATION OF THE UPPER
ENERGY...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND THE OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCE COULD
TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS.

THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO PROVIDE SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT
ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST FRI THROUGH SUN. TEMPS WILL STILL BE 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THOUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE TRI-STATE THIS
EVENING...THEN STALL OUT SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND INTO MONDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT CONFIDENCE VERY LOW
FOR ANY ACTIVITY TO IMPACT ANY PARTICULAR AIRPORT.

WINDS BECOME SW UNDER 10 KT AT CITY TERMINALS TONIGHT AND LIGHT SW
OR VARIABLE ELSEWHERE. WSW-WNW WINDS AT AROUND 10 KT DEVELOP BY MID
TO LATE MONDAY MORNING AND INTO EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS
SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON...10 TO 15 KT. OCCASIONAL GUSTS
TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KJFK.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR. AFTERNOON SEABREEZES PROBABLE
EACH AFTERNOON.
.THURSDAY...MOST LIKELY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. AFTERNOON SEABREEZES PROBABLE.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.FRIDAY...MOST LIKELY VFR. E WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE. ISOLATED-
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
PRIMARILY A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH MON NIGHT. THE WINDS
WILL BE MAINLY LESS THAN 15 KT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH.
THERE COULD BE A ROUND OF GUSTS MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT THESE ARE
EXPECTED TO BE UP TO 20 KT. SEAS ON THE OCEAN MAY GET TO 5 FT
MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT...DID NOT
THINK WINDS WOULD SUPPLY A STRONG ENOUGH FETCH TO INCREASE SEAS TO
5 FT. THEREFORE CAPPED THE OCEAN SEAS AT 4 FT MONDAY NIGHT.

SUB-ADVSY CONDS ARE EXPECTED ON ALL WATERS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THROUGH MONDAY COULD RESULT IN A BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOUR...WITH PERHAPS A QUICK QUARTER OF AN INCH IN
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THERE COULD BE SOME LOCALLY MINOR FLOODING BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW WITH COVERAGE OF CONVECTION FORECAST
BEING LOW.

OVERALL...NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A RECENT FULL MOON...BRIEF MINOR INUNDATION IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE ACROSS THE TYPICALLY VULNERABLE
COASTAL LOCALES INTO THE START OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KOKX 302328
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
728 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND MOVE SOUTH
OF LONG ISLAND MONDAY. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS LATE
MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT IT WILL STILL BE WARM AND MAINLY
DRY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK. ADJUSTED POPS A BIT THIS EVE AND
ALSO MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO T/TD/WIND AND SKY GRIDS TO BETTER
REFLECT CURRENT CONDS AND TRENDS.

MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED HIGHER PVA MOVE MOSTLY SOUTH
OF THE REGION WITH A STRONGER ONE TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CANADA. AT THE SURFACE...THERE WILL BE A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
MOVING TOWARDS THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP AN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS
OVERHEAD FOR THE NIGHT. THE LOWS WERE TAKEN FROM THE RELATIVELY
WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE OF THE MAV MOS...WITH VALUES EXPECTED TO
BE WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW.

COOLING TEMPERATURES WITH COVERAGE OF ANY CONVECTION REMAINING
DECREASING INTO THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL
STILL BE SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE WITH SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY AHEAD OF
THE SURFACE TROUGH. WITH THESE AFOREMENTIONED FACTORS...THERE WILL
BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR TONIGHT
ACROSS ALL LOCATIONS.

THERE IS A CONTINUED MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP
CURRENTS INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHORTWAVE WEAKENS SOUTH OF THE REGION MONDAY. A HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGE FROM THE WEST WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN. HOWEVER...AT THE
SURFACE...THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN AND THE DAYTIME SHOULD ENHANCE IT
WITH THE SEA BREEZE GIVING SOME INCREASE IN THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
WITHIN THE REGION ACROSS THE COAST. THE COOLER TEMPS WILL BE
ADVECTED INTO THE REGION FROM THE MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS WILL
CONVERGE AGAINST PLACES THAT HAVE SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE POPS OVERALL
WILL NOT BE HIGH...JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CLOSE TO THE COAST...BUT WITH THE AIRMASS BECOMING INCREASINGLY WARM
AND HUMID...INSTABILITY WILL BE LARGER AS CAPE INCREASES TO
APPROXIMATELY 500-1000 J/KG. INLAND...DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL. AN OVERALL VERY WARM DAY EXPECTED. A MAV/MET BLEND WAS USED
FOR HIGHS...YIELDING VALUES FROM THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS A
MAJORITY OF THE REGION.

ONCE THE HEATING WANES DOWN FOR MONDAY EVENING...THE ENVIRONMENT
WILL BECOME MORE STABLE AND THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE FROM THE WEST
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL HAVE PUSHED SOUTH
OF LONG ISLAND. THERE WILL BE A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS LATE. OVERALL...THE GREATER INFLUENCE WILL BE FROM THE
RIDGE AND THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGING WILL LEAD TO LESSENING
CLOUDS. HOWEVER...DESPITE LIGHT WINDS...LOWS WILL NOT CHANGE TOO
MUCH COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS NIGHT. THE RELATIVELY WARM AND
HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN THOUGH AS WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASES
AT THE 850MB LEVEL.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS ON
MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MAIN THEME OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE CONTINUATION OF
HEAT AND HUMIDITY ACROSS THE REGION.

MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE H5 PATTERN ACROSS NOAM
THROUGH THE PERIOD. A LATE SEASON HEAT WAVE IS EXPECTED FOR PARTS OF
THE TRI-STATE AREA THIS WEEK AS A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE ENCOMPASSES THE
EASTERN US. A SLY FLOW FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK WILL KEEP HUMIDITY
LEVELS HIGH AS WELL. THE HOTTEST DAY...HEAT AND HUMIDITY COMBINED
LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY WITH MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT. NOT EXPECTING HEAT ADVSY CRITERIA TO BE MET...ALTHOUGH HEAT
INDICES WILL RANGE BETWEEN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH WED WITH 90 TO 95 ON THU. ALTHOUGH PARTS OF NYC MAY REACH A
95 DEGREE HEAT INDEX THU...NOT EXPECTING IT FOR 2 CONSECUTIVE
DAYS. THEREFORE...NO ADVSY IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE CITY EITHER.

IT WILL BE A FAIRLY DRY WEEK WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH THE
WEAK BOUNDARY THU/THU EVE AND AGAIN FRI/FRI EVE AS ANOTHER WEAK
BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE N...THIS TIME WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE
ENERGY. THE FLOW BECOMES ELY FRI...BUT THE COMBINATION OF THE UPPER
ENERGY...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND THE OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCE COULD
TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS.

THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO PROVIDE SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT
ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST FRI THROUGH SUN. TEMPS WILL STILL BE 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THOUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE TRI-STATE THIS
EVENING...THEN STALL OUT SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND INTO MONDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT CONFIDENCE VERY LOW
FOR ANY ACTIVITY TO IMPACT ANY PARTICULAR AIRPORT.

WINDS BECOME SW UNDER 10 KT AT CITY TERMINALS TONIGHT AND LIGHT SW
OR VARIABLE ELSEWHERE. WSW-WNW WINDS AT AROUND 10 KT DEVELOP BY MID
TO LATE MONDAY MORNING AND INTO EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS
SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON...10 TO 15 KT. OCCASIONAL GUSTS
TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KJFK.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR. AFTERNOON SEABREEZES PROBABLE
EACH AFTERNOON.
.THURSDAY...MOST LIKELY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. AFTERNOON SEABREEZES PROBABLE.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.FRIDAY...MOST LIKELY VFR. E WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE. ISOLATED-
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
PRIMARILY A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH MON NIGHT. THE WINDS
WILL BE MAINLY LESS THAN 15 KT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH.
THERE COULD BE A ROUND OF GUSTS MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT THESE ARE
EXPECTED TO BE UP TO 20 KT. SEAS ON THE OCEAN MAY GET TO 5 FT
MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT...DID NOT
THINK WINDS WOULD SUPPLY A STRONG ENOUGH FETCH TO INCREASE SEAS TO
5 FT. THEREFORE CAPPED THE OCEAN SEAS AT 4 FT MONDAY NIGHT.

SUB-ADVSY CONDS ARE EXPECTED ON ALL WATERS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THROUGH MONDAY COULD RESULT IN A BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOUR...WITH PERHAPS A QUICK QUARTER OF AN INCH IN
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THERE COULD BE SOME LOCALLY MINOR FLOODING BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW WITH COVERAGE OF CONVECTION FORECAST
BEING LOW.

OVERALL...NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A RECENT FULL MOON...BRIEF MINOR INUNDATION IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE ACROSS THE TYPICALLY VULNERABLE
COASTAL LOCALES INTO THE START OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KOKX 302328
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
728 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND MOVE SOUTH
OF LONG ISLAND MONDAY. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS LATE
MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT IT WILL STILL BE WARM AND MAINLY
DRY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK. ADJUSTED POPS A BIT THIS EVE AND
ALSO MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO T/TD/WIND AND SKY GRIDS TO BETTER
REFLECT CURRENT CONDS AND TRENDS.

MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED HIGHER PVA MOVE MOSTLY SOUTH
OF THE REGION WITH A STRONGER ONE TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CANADA. AT THE SURFACE...THERE WILL BE A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
MOVING TOWARDS THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP AN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS
OVERHEAD FOR THE NIGHT. THE LOWS WERE TAKEN FROM THE RELATIVELY
WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE OF THE MAV MOS...WITH VALUES EXPECTED TO
BE WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW.

COOLING TEMPERATURES WITH COVERAGE OF ANY CONVECTION REMAINING
DECREASING INTO THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL
STILL BE SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE WITH SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY AHEAD OF
THE SURFACE TROUGH. WITH THESE AFOREMENTIONED FACTORS...THERE WILL
BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR TONIGHT
ACROSS ALL LOCATIONS.

THERE IS A CONTINUED MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP
CURRENTS INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHORTWAVE WEAKENS SOUTH OF THE REGION MONDAY. A HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGE FROM THE WEST WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN. HOWEVER...AT THE
SURFACE...THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN AND THE DAYTIME SHOULD ENHANCE IT
WITH THE SEA BREEZE GIVING SOME INCREASE IN THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
WITHIN THE REGION ACROSS THE COAST. THE COOLER TEMPS WILL BE
ADVECTED INTO THE REGION FROM THE MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS WILL
CONVERGE AGAINST PLACES THAT HAVE SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE POPS OVERALL
WILL NOT BE HIGH...JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CLOSE TO THE COAST...BUT WITH THE AIRMASS BECOMING INCREASINGLY WARM
AND HUMID...INSTABILITY WILL BE LARGER AS CAPE INCREASES TO
APPROXIMATELY 500-1000 J/KG. INLAND...DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL. AN OVERALL VERY WARM DAY EXPECTED. A MAV/MET BLEND WAS USED
FOR HIGHS...YIELDING VALUES FROM THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS A
MAJORITY OF THE REGION.

ONCE THE HEATING WANES DOWN FOR MONDAY EVENING...THE ENVIRONMENT
WILL BECOME MORE STABLE AND THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE FROM THE WEST
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL HAVE PUSHED SOUTH
OF LONG ISLAND. THERE WILL BE A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS LATE. OVERALL...THE GREATER INFLUENCE WILL BE FROM THE
RIDGE AND THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGING WILL LEAD TO LESSENING
CLOUDS. HOWEVER...DESPITE LIGHT WINDS...LOWS WILL NOT CHANGE TOO
MUCH COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS NIGHT. THE RELATIVELY WARM AND
HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN THOUGH AS WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASES
AT THE 850MB LEVEL.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS ON
MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MAIN THEME OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE CONTINUATION OF
HEAT AND HUMIDITY ACROSS THE REGION.

MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE H5 PATTERN ACROSS NOAM
THROUGH THE PERIOD. A LATE SEASON HEAT WAVE IS EXPECTED FOR PARTS OF
THE TRI-STATE AREA THIS WEEK AS A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE ENCOMPASSES THE
EASTERN US. A SLY FLOW FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK WILL KEEP HUMIDITY
LEVELS HIGH AS WELL. THE HOTTEST DAY...HEAT AND HUMIDITY COMBINED
LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY WITH MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT. NOT EXPECTING HEAT ADVSY CRITERIA TO BE MET...ALTHOUGH HEAT
INDICES WILL RANGE BETWEEN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH WED WITH 90 TO 95 ON THU. ALTHOUGH PARTS OF NYC MAY REACH A
95 DEGREE HEAT INDEX THU...NOT EXPECTING IT FOR 2 CONSECUTIVE
DAYS. THEREFORE...NO ADVSY IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE CITY EITHER.

IT WILL BE A FAIRLY DRY WEEK WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH THE
WEAK BOUNDARY THU/THU EVE AND AGAIN FRI/FRI EVE AS ANOTHER WEAK
BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE N...THIS TIME WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE
ENERGY. THE FLOW BECOMES ELY FRI...BUT THE COMBINATION OF THE UPPER
ENERGY...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND THE OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCE COULD
TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS.

THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO PROVIDE SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT
ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST FRI THROUGH SUN. TEMPS WILL STILL BE 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THOUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE TRI-STATE THIS
EVENING...THEN STALL OUT SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND INTO MONDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT CONFIDENCE VERY LOW
FOR ANY ACTIVITY TO IMPACT ANY PARTICULAR AIRPORT.

WINDS BECOME SW UNDER 10 KT AT CITY TERMINALS TONIGHT AND LIGHT SW
OR VARIABLE ELSEWHERE. WSW-WNW WINDS AT AROUND 10 KT DEVELOP BY MID
TO LATE MONDAY MORNING AND INTO EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS
SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON...10 TO 15 KT. OCCASIONAL GUSTS
TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KJFK.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR. AFTERNOON SEABREEZES PROBABLE
EACH AFTERNOON.
.THURSDAY...MOST LIKELY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. AFTERNOON SEABREEZES PROBABLE.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.FRIDAY...MOST LIKELY VFR. E WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE. ISOLATED-
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
PRIMARILY A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH MON NIGHT. THE WINDS
WILL BE MAINLY LESS THAN 15 KT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH.
THERE COULD BE A ROUND OF GUSTS MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT THESE ARE
EXPECTED TO BE UP TO 20 KT. SEAS ON THE OCEAN MAY GET TO 5 FT
MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT...DID NOT
THINK WINDS WOULD SUPPLY A STRONG ENOUGH FETCH TO INCREASE SEAS TO
5 FT. THEREFORE CAPPED THE OCEAN SEAS AT 4 FT MONDAY NIGHT.

SUB-ADVSY CONDS ARE EXPECTED ON ALL WATERS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THROUGH MONDAY COULD RESULT IN A BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOUR...WITH PERHAPS A QUICK QUARTER OF AN INCH IN
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THERE COULD BE SOME LOCALLY MINOR FLOODING BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW WITH COVERAGE OF CONVECTION FORECAST
BEING LOW.

OVERALL...NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A RECENT FULL MOON...BRIEF MINOR INUNDATION IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE ACROSS THE TYPICALLY VULNERABLE
COASTAL LOCALES INTO THE START OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KOKX 302328
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
728 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND MOVE SOUTH
OF LONG ISLAND MONDAY. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS LATE
MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT IT WILL STILL BE WARM AND MAINLY
DRY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK. ADJUSTED POPS A BIT THIS EVE AND
ALSO MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO T/TD/WIND AND SKY GRIDS TO BETTER
REFLECT CURRENT CONDS AND TRENDS.

MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED HIGHER PVA MOVE MOSTLY SOUTH
OF THE REGION WITH A STRONGER ONE TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CANADA. AT THE SURFACE...THERE WILL BE A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
MOVING TOWARDS THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP AN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS
OVERHEAD FOR THE NIGHT. THE LOWS WERE TAKEN FROM THE RELATIVELY
WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE OF THE MAV MOS...WITH VALUES EXPECTED TO
BE WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW.

COOLING TEMPERATURES WITH COVERAGE OF ANY CONVECTION REMAINING
DECREASING INTO THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL
STILL BE SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE WITH SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY AHEAD OF
THE SURFACE TROUGH. WITH THESE AFOREMENTIONED FACTORS...THERE WILL
BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR TONIGHT
ACROSS ALL LOCATIONS.

THERE IS A CONTINUED MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP
CURRENTS INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHORTWAVE WEAKENS SOUTH OF THE REGION MONDAY. A HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGE FROM THE WEST WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN. HOWEVER...AT THE
SURFACE...THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN AND THE DAYTIME SHOULD ENHANCE IT
WITH THE SEA BREEZE GIVING SOME INCREASE IN THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
WITHIN THE REGION ACROSS THE COAST. THE COOLER TEMPS WILL BE
ADVECTED INTO THE REGION FROM THE MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS WILL
CONVERGE AGAINST PLACES THAT HAVE SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE POPS OVERALL
WILL NOT BE HIGH...JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CLOSE TO THE COAST...BUT WITH THE AIRMASS BECOMING INCREASINGLY WARM
AND HUMID...INSTABILITY WILL BE LARGER AS CAPE INCREASES TO
APPROXIMATELY 500-1000 J/KG. INLAND...DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL. AN OVERALL VERY WARM DAY EXPECTED. A MAV/MET BLEND WAS USED
FOR HIGHS...YIELDING VALUES FROM THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS A
MAJORITY OF THE REGION.

ONCE THE HEATING WANES DOWN FOR MONDAY EVENING...THE ENVIRONMENT
WILL BECOME MORE STABLE AND THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE FROM THE WEST
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL HAVE PUSHED SOUTH
OF LONG ISLAND. THERE WILL BE A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS LATE. OVERALL...THE GREATER INFLUENCE WILL BE FROM THE
RIDGE AND THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGING WILL LEAD TO LESSENING
CLOUDS. HOWEVER...DESPITE LIGHT WINDS...LOWS WILL NOT CHANGE TOO
MUCH COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS NIGHT. THE RELATIVELY WARM AND
HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN THOUGH AS WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASES
AT THE 850MB LEVEL.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS ON
MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MAIN THEME OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE CONTINUATION OF
HEAT AND HUMIDITY ACROSS THE REGION.

MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE H5 PATTERN ACROSS NOAM
THROUGH THE PERIOD. A LATE SEASON HEAT WAVE IS EXPECTED FOR PARTS OF
THE TRI-STATE AREA THIS WEEK AS A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE ENCOMPASSES THE
EASTERN US. A SLY FLOW FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK WILL KEEP HUMIDITY
LEVELS HIGH AS WELL. THE HOTTEST DAY...HEAT AND HUMIDITY COMBINED
LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY WITH MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT. NOT EXPECTING HEAT ADVSY CRITERIA TO BE MET...ALTHOUGH HEAT
INDICES WILL RANGE BETWEEN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH WED WITH 90 TO 95 ON THU. ALTHOUGH PARTS OF NYC MAY REACH A
95 DEGREE HEAT INDEX THU...NOT EXPECTING IT FOR 2 CONSECUTIVE
DAYS. THEREFORE...NO ADVSY IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE CITY EITHER.

IT WILL BE A FAIRLY DRY WEEK WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH THE
WEAK BOUNDARY THU/THU EVE AND AGAIN FRI/FRI EVE AS ANOTHER WEAK
BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE N...THIS TIME WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE
ENERGY. THE FLOW BECOMES ELY FRI...BUT THE COMBINATION OF THE UPPER
ENERGY...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND THE OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCE COULD
TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS.

THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO PROVIDE SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT
ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST FRI THROUGH SUN. TEMPS WILL STILL BE 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THOUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE TRI-STATE THIS
EVENING...THEN STALL OUT SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND INTO MONDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT CONFIDENCE VERY LOW
FOR ANY ACTIVITY TO IMPACT ANY PARTICULAR AIRPORT.

WINDS BECOME SW UNDER 10 KT AT CITY TERMINALS TONIGHT AND LIGHT SW
OR VARIABLE ELSEWHERE. WSW-WNW WINDS AT AROUND 10 KT DEVELOP BY MID
TO LATE MONDAY MORNING AND INTO EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS
SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON...10 TO 15 KT. OCCASIONAL GUSTS
TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KJFK.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR. AFTERNOON SEABREEZES PROBABLE
EACH AFTERNOON.
.THURSDAY...MOST LIKELY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. AFTERNOON SEABREEZES PROBABLE.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.FRIDAY...MOST LIKELY VFR. E WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE. ISOLATED-
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
PRIMARILY A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH MON NIGHT. THE WINDS
WILL BE MAINLY LESS THAN 15 KT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH.
THERE COULD BE A ROUND OF GUSTS MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT THESE ARE
EXPECTED TO BE UP TO 20 KT. SEAS ON THE OCEAN MAY GET TO 5 FT
MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT...DID NOT
THINK WINDS WOULD SUPPLY A STRONG ENOUGH FETCH TO INCREASE SEAS TO
5 FT. THEREFORE CAPPED THE OCEAN SEAS AT 4 FT MONDAY NIGHT.

SUB-ADVSY CONDS ARE EXPECTED ON ALL WATERS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THROUGH MONDAY COULD RESULT IN A BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOUR...WITH PERHAPS A QUICK QUARTER OF AN INCH IN
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THERE COULD BE SOME LOCALLY MINOR FLOODING BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW WITH COVERAGE OF CONVECTION FORECAST
BEING LOW.

OVERALL...NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A RECENT FULL MOON...BRIEF MINOR INUNDATION IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE ACROSS THE TYPICALLY VULNERABLE
COASTAL LOCALES INTO THE START OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KBOX 302312
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
712 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
ACROSS NORTHERN CT...WILL GIVE WAY TO DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING
TREND THROUGH MONDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER
WEATHER TUESDAY BUT MAINLY JUST TO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND... BEFORE
UNSEASONABLY HOT WEATHER RETURNS TO MOST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER
WEATHER FRIDAY INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER CONTINUING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...

710 PM UPDATE...

WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH ABOUT 500 TO 1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE HAS
ALLOWED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS NORTHERN CONNECTICUT.  GIVEN MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND POOR
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
SO. SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY SURVIVE IN A WEAKENED FORM INTO PORTIONS OF
RHODE ISLAND...BUT PROBABLY NOTHING MORE THAN A SPOT SPRINKLE/SHOWER
OR TWO BY THE TIME ACTIVITY REACHES SOUTHEAST MA.

OTHERWISE...AN ABUNDANCE OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS THIS EVENING SHOULD
BEGIN TO CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT.  HOWEVER...CLOUDS MAY
HANG TOUGH NEAR THE SOUTH COAST THROUGH DAYBREAK.  LOW TEMPS SHOULD
RANGE FROM AROUND 60 IN THE NORMALLY COOLER OUTLYING LOCATIONS OF
NORTHWEST MA...TO MAINLY THE 60S TO AROUND 70 ELSEWHERE.  PATCHY
GROUND FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP LATE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM QUEBEC INTO THE MARITIMES WILL
BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH MAINE AND INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND.  STILL SEEING QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR ACROSS THE REGION
SO AM NOT EXPECTING ANY RAIN AND EVEN A FEW DIURNAL CLOUDS SEEM TO
STRUGGLE.  STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTRIBUTES TO THE DRY
AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS BUT ALSO BRINGS WARMER 850MB TEMPS
INTO THE REGION. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND
90 FOR MOST LOCATIONS.  ONSHORE WINDS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WILL
KEEP THE IMMEDIATE COAST A BIT COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S.

MONDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
START TO BUILD INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND
WITH DRIER NORTHWESTERLY WINDS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RADIATE OUT A
BIT MORE.  EXPECT LOWS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* VERY WARM ON TUESDAY EXCEPT COOLER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND COAST
* UNSEASONABLY HOT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
* A BIT COOLER FRI INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL
* MAINLY DRY OTHER THEN PERHAPS A SPOT SHOWER/STORM THU

DETAILS...

ALL MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER RIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.  THIS
MEANS ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER.  WE MAY SEE ENOUGH FORCING TO SPARK A FEW SPOT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SOMETIME THU INTO THU EVENING WITH A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT.  HOWEVER...ODDS ARE AGAINST ANY WIDESPREAD MEANINGFUL
RAINFALL GIVEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING...SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE SLIGHT
CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW.

THE EXCEPTION FROM THE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL BE TUESDAY
ACROSS COASTAL NEW ENGLAND...WHEN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT KEEPS HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S.  HOWEVER...THE LOWER CT
RIVER VALLEY SHOULD STILL SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S ON TUE AND ITS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOMEONE TOUCHES 90.

THE HOTTEST WEATHER LOOK TO BE WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO THURSDAY
WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 18C.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S AND LOWER 90S AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW LOCATIONS
HIT THE MIDDLE 90S.

ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL COOL TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES FRI
INTO SAT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.  HOWEVER...STILL
EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL RIGHT THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND GIVEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN CONTROL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN CT EARLY THIS EVENING.
ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN...BUT COULD ENTER PORTIONS OF RHODE ISLAND IN
A WEAKENED FORM.  OTHERWISE...VFR THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT OTHER THAN
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  THUNDERSTORM
WILL EXIT THE BDL TERMINAL BY 00Z.  OTHERWISE...VFR OTHER THAN
PERHAPS A FEW HOURS OF PATCHY GROUND FOG LATE.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD OTHER THAN VERY LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.  A SPOT
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE THU/THU EVENING...BUT
ODDS ARE AGAINST ANYTHING WIDESPREAD.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS WILL KEEP WINDS
AND WAVES BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS
EXPECTED. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF 5 FOOT
SEAS ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  VISIBILITY SHOULD BE
GOOD AS WELL...SO NICE BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TUE AND AGAIN SOMETIME THU INTO FRI WILL SHIFT
WINDS TO THE EAST...BUT GUSTS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN 20
KNOTS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/FRANK
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...FRANK/RLG
MARINE...RLG/FRANK




000
FXUS61 KBOX 302312
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
712 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
ACROSS NORTHERN CT...WILL GIVE WAY TO DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING
TREND THROUGH MONDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER
WEATHER TUESDAY BUT MAINLY JUST TO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND... BEFORE
UNSEASONABLY HOT WEATHER RETURNS TO MOST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER
WEATHER FRIDAY INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER CONTINUING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...

710 PM UPDATE...

WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH ABOUT 500 TO 1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE HAS
ALLOWED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS NORTHERN CONNECTICUT.  GIVEN MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND POOR
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
SO. SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY SURVIVE IN A WEAKENED FORM INTO PORTIONS OF
RHODE ISLAND...BUT PROBABLY NOTHING MORE THAN A SPOT SPRINKLE/SHOWER
OR TWO BY THE TIME ACTIVITY REACHES SOUTHEAST MA.

OTHERWISE...AN ABUNDANCE OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS THIS EVENING SHOULD
BEGIN TO CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT.  HOWEVER...CLOUDS MAY
HANG TOUGH NEAR THE SOUTH COAST THROUGH DAYBREAK.  LOW TEMPS SHOULD
RANGE FROM AROUND 60 IN THE NORMALLY COOLER OUTLYING LOCATIONS OF
NORTHWEST MA...TO MAINLY THE 60S TO AROUND 70 ELSEWHERE.  PATCHY
GROUND FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP LATE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM QUEBEC INTO THE MARITIMES WILL
BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH MAINE AND INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND.  STILL SEEING QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR ACROSS THE REGION
SO AM NOT EXPECTING ANY RAIN AND EVEN A FEW DIURNAL CLOUDS SEEM TO
STRUGGLE.  STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTRIBUTES TO THE DRY
AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS BUT ALSO BRINGS WARMER 850MB TEMPS
INTO THE REGION. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND
90 FOR MOST LOCATIONS.  ONSHORE WINDS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WILL
KEEP THE IMMEDIATE COAST A BIT COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S.

MONDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
START TO BUILD INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND
WITH DRIER NORTHWESTERLY WINDS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RADIATE OUT A
BIT MORE.  EXPECT LOWS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* VERY WARM ON TUESDAY EXCEPT COOLER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND COAST
* UNSEASONABLY HOT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
* A BIT COOLER FRI INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL
* MAINLY DRY OTHER THEN PERHAPS A SPOT SHOWER/STORM THU

DETAILS...

ALL MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER RIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.  THIS
MEANS ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER.  WE MAY SEE ENOUGH FORCING TO SPARK A FEW SPOT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SOMETIME THU INTO THU EVENING WITH A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT.  HOWEVER...ODDS ARE AGAINST ANY WIDESPREAD MEANINGFUL
RAINFALL GIVEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING...SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE SLIGHT
CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW.

THE EXCEPTION FROM THE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL BE TUESDAY
ACROSS COASTAL NEW ENGLAND...WHEN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT KEEPS HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S.  HOWEVER...THE LOWER CT
RIVER VALLEY SHOULD STILL SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S ON TUE AND ITS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOMEONE TOUCHES 90.

THE HOTTEST WEATHER LOOK TO BE WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO THURSDAY
WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 18C.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S AND LOWER 90S AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW LOCATIONS
HIT THE MIDDLE 90S.

ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL COOL TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES FRI
INTO SAT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.  HOWEVER...STILL
EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL RIGHT THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND GIVEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN CONTROL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN CT EARLY THIS EVENING.
ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN...BUT COULD ENTER PORTIONS OF RHODE ISLAND IN
A WEAKENED FORM.  OTHERWISE...VFR THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT OTHER THAN
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  THUNDERSTORM
WILL EXIT THE BDL TERMINAL BY 00Z.  OTHERWISE...VFR OTHER THAN
PERHAPS A FEW HOURS OF PATCHY GROUND FOG LATE.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD OTHER THAN VERY LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.  A SPOT
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE THU/THU EVENING...BUT
ODDS ARE AGAINST ANYTHING WIDESPREAD.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS WILL KEEP WINDS
AND WAVES BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS
EXPECTED. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF 5 FOOT
SEAS ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  VISIBILITY SHOULD BE
GOOD AS WELL...SO NICE BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TUE AND AGAIN SOMETIME THU INTO FRI WILL SHIFT
WINDS TO THE EAST...BUT GUSTS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN 20
KNOTS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/FRANK
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...FRANK/RLG
MARINE...RLG/FRANK




000
FXUS61 KBOX 302312
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
712 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
ACROSS NORTHERN CT...WILL GIVE WAY TO DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING
TREND THROUGH MONDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER
WEATHER TUESDAY BUT MAINLY JUST TO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND... BEFORE
UNSEASONABLY HOT WEATHER RETURNS TO MOST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER
WEATHER FRIDAY INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER CONTINUING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...

710 PM UPDATE...

WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH ABOUT 500 TO 1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE HAS
ALLOWED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS NORTHERN CONNECTICUT.  GIVEN MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND POOR
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
SO. SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY SURVIVE IN A WEAKENED FORM INTO PORTIONS OF
RHODE ISLAND...BUT PROBABLY NOTHING MORE THAN A SPOT SPRINKLE/SHOWER
OR TWO BY THE TIME ACTIVITY REACHES SOUTHEAST MA.

OTHERWISE...AN ABUNDANCE OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS THIS EVENING SHOULD
BEGIN TO CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT.  HOWEVER...CLOUDS MAY
HANG TOUGH NEAR THE SOUTH COAST THROUGH DAYBREAK.  LOW TEMPS SHOULD
RANGE FROM AROUND 60 IN THE NORMALLY COOLER OUTLYING LOCATIONS OF
NORTHWEST MA...TO MAINLY THE 60S TO AROUND 70 ELSEWHERE.  PATCHY
GROUND FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP LATE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM QUEBEC INTO THE MARITIMES WILL
BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH MAINE AND INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND.  STILL SEEING QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR ACROSS THE REGION
SO AM NOT EXPECTING ANY RAIN AND EVEN A FEW DIURNAL CLOUDS SEEM TO
STRUGGLE.  STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTRIBUTES TO THE DRY
AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS BUT ALSO BRINGS WARMER 850MB TEMPS
INTO THE REGION. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND
90 FOR MOST LOCATIONS.  ONSHORE WINDS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WILL
KEEP THE IMMEDIATE COAST A BIT COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S.

MONDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
START TO BUILD INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND
WITH DRIER NORTHWESTERLY WINDS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RADIATE OUT A
BIT MORE.  EXPECT LOWS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* VERY WARM ON TUESDAY EXCEPT COOLER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND COAST
* UNSEASONABLY HOT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
* A BIT COOLER FRI INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL
* MAINLY DRY OTHER THEN PERHAPS A SPOT SHOWER/STORM THU

DETAILS...

ALL MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER RIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.  THIS
MEANS ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER.  WE MAY SEE ENOUGH FORCING TO SPARK A FEW SPOT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SOMETIME THU INTO THU EVENING WITH A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT.  HOWEVER...ODDS ARE AGAINST ANY WIDESPREAD MEANINGFUL
RAINFALL GIVEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING...SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE SLIGHT
CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW.

THE EXCEPTION FROM THE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL BE TUESDAY
ACROSS COASTAL NEW ENGLAND...WHEN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT KEEPS HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S.  HOWEVER...THE LOWER CT
RIVER VALLEY SHOULD STILL SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S ON TUE AND ITS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOMEONE TOUCHES 90.

THE HOTTEST WEATHER LOOK TO BE WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO THURSDAY
WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 18C.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S AND LOWER 90S AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW LOCATIONS
HIT THE MIDDLE 90S.

ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL COOL TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES FRI
INTO SAT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.  HOWEVER...STILL
EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL RIGHT THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND GIVEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN CONTROL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN CT EARLY THIS EVENING.
ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN...BUT COULD ENTER PORTIONS OF RHODE ISLAND IN
A WEAKENED FORM.  OTHERWISE...VFR THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT OTHER THAN
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  THUNDERSTORM
WILL EXIT THE BDL TERMINAL BY 00Z.  OTHERWISE...VFR OTHER THAN
PERHAPS A FEW HOURS OF PATCHY GROUND FOG LATE.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD OTHER THAN VERY LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.  A SPOT
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE THU/THU EVENING...BUT
ODDS ARE AGAINST ANYTHING WIDESPREAD.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS WILL KEEP WINDS
AND WAVES BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS
EXPECTED. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF 5 FOOT
SEAS ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  VISIBILITY SHOULD BE
GOOD AS WELL...SO NICE BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TUE AND AGAIN SOMETIME THU INTO FRI WILL SHIFT
WINDS TO THE EAST...BUT GUSTS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN 20
KNOTS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/FRANK
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...FRANK/RLG
MARINE...RLG/FRANK




000
FXUS61 KBOX 302312
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
712 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
ACROSS NORTHERN CT...WILL GIVE WAY TO DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING
TREND THROUGH MONDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER
WEATHER TUESDAY BUT MAINLY JUST TO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND... BEFORE
UNSEASONABLY HOT WEATHER RETURNS TO MOST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER
WEATHER FRIDAY INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER CONTINUING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...

710 PM UPDATE...

WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH ABOUT 500 TO 1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE HAS
ALLOWED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS NORTHERN CONNECTICUT.  GIVEN MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND POOR
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
SO. SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY SURVIVE IN A WEAKENED FORM INTO PORTIONS OF
RHODE ISLAND...BUT PROBABLY NOTHING MORE THAN A SPOT SPRINKLE/SHOWER
OR TWO BY THE TIME ACTIVITY REACHES SOUTHEAST MA.

OTHERWISE...AN ABUNDANCE OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS THIS EVENING SHOULD
BEGIN TO CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT.  HOWEVER...CLOUDS MAY
HANG TOUGH NEAR THE SOUTH COAST THROUGH DAYBREAK.  LOW TEMPS SHOULD
RANGE FROM AROUND 60 IN THE NORMALLY COOLER OUTLYING LOCATIONS OF
NORTHWEST MA...TO MAINLY THE 60S TO AROUND 70 ELSEWHERE.  PATCHY
GROUND FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP LATE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM QUEBEC INTO THE MARITIMES WILL
BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH MAINE AND INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND.  STILL SEEING QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR ACROSS THE REGION
SO AM NOT EXPECTING ANY RAIN AND EVEN A FEW DIURNAL CLOUDS SEEM TO
STRUGGLE.  STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTRIBUTES TO THE DRY
AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS BUT ALSO BRINGS WARMER 850MB TEMPS
INTO THE REGION. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND
90 FOR MOST LOCATIONS.  ONSHORE WINDS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WILL
KEEP THE IMMEDIATE COAST A BIT COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S.

MONDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
START TO BUILD INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND
WITH DRIER NORTHWESTERLY WINDS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RADIATE OUT A
BIT MORE.  EXPECT LOWS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* VERY WARM ON TUESDAY EXCEPT COOLER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND COAST
* UNSEASONABLY HOT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
* A BIT COOLER FRI INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL
* MAINLY DRY OTHER THEN PERHAPS A SPOT SHOWER/STORM THU

DETAILS...

ALL MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER RIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.  THIS
MEANS ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER.  WE MAY SEE ENOUGH FORCING TO SPARK A FEW SPOT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SOMETIME THU INTO THU EVENING WITH A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT.  HOWEVER...ODDS ARE AGAINST ANY WIDESPREAD MEANINGFUL
RAINFALL GIVEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING...SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE SLIGHT
CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW.

THE EXCEPTION FROM THE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL BE TUESDAY
ACROSS COASTAL NEW ENGLAND...WHEN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT KEEPS HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S.  HOWEVER...THE LOWER CT
RIVER VALLEY SHOULD STILL SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S ON TUE AND ITS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOMEONE TOUCHES 90.

THE HOTTEST WEATHER LOOK TO BE WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO THURSDAY
WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 18C.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S AND LOWER 90S AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW LOCATIONS
HIT THE MIDDLE 90S.

ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL COOL TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES FRI
INTO SAT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.  HOWEVER...STILL
EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL RIGHT THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND GIVEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN CONTROL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN CT EARLY THIS EVENING.
ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN...BUT COULD ENTER PORTIONS OF RHODE ISLAND IN
A WEAKENED FORM.  OTHERWISE...VFR THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT OTHER THAN
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  THUNDERSTORM
WILL EXIT THE BDL TERMINAL BY 00Z.  OTHERWISE...VFR OTHER THAN
PERHAPS A FEW HOURS OF PATCHY GROUND FOG LATE.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD OTHER THAN VERY LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.  A SPOT
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE THU/THU EVENING...BUT
ODDS ARE AGAINST ANYTHING WIDESPREAD.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS WILL KEEP WINDS
AND WAVES BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS
EXPECTED. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF 5 FOOT
SEAS ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  VISIBILITY SHOULD BE
GOOD AS WELL...SO NICE BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TUE AND AGAIN SOMETIME THU INTO FRI WILL SHIFT
WINDS TO THE EAST...BUT GUSTS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN 20
KNOTS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/FRANK
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...FRANK/RLG
MARINE...RLG/FRANK




000
FXUS61 KBOX 302312
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
712 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
ACROSS NORTHERN CT...WILL GIVE WAY TO DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING
TREND THROUGH MONDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER
WEATHER TUESDAY BUT MAINLY JUST TO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND... BEFORE
UNSEASONABLY HOT WEATHER RETURNS TO MOST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER
WEATHER FRIDAY INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER CONTINUING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...

710 PM UPDATE...

WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH ABOUT 500 TO 1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE HAS
ALLOWED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS NORTHERN CONNECTICUT.  GIVEN MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND POOR
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
SO. SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY SURVIVE IN A WEAKENED FORM INTO PORTIONS OF
RHODE ISLAND...BUT PROBABLY NOTHING MORE THAN A SPOT SPRINKLE/SHOWER
OR TWO BY THE TIME ACTIVITY REACHES SOUTHEAST MA.

OTHERWISE...AN ABUNDANCE OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS THIS EVENING SHOULD
BEGIN TO CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT.  HOWEVER...CLOUDS MAY
HANG TOUGH NEAR THE SOUTH COAST THROUGH DAYBREAK.  LOW TEMPS SHOULD
RANGE FROM AROUND 60 IN THE NORMALLY COOLER OUTLYING LOCATIONS OF
NORTHWEST MA...TO MAINLY THE 60S TO AROUND 70 ELSEWHERE.  PATCHY
GROUND FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP LATE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM QUEBEC INTO THE MARITIMES WILL
BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH MAINE AND INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND.  STILL SEEING QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR ACROSS THE REGION
SO AM NOT EXPECTING ANY RAIN AND EVEN A FEW DIURNAL CLOUDS SEEM TO
STRUGGLE.  STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTRIBUTES TO THE DRY
AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS BUT ALSO BRINGS WARMER 850MB TEMPS
INTO THE REGION. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND
90 FOR MOST LOCATIONS.  ONSHORE WINDS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WILL
KEEP THE IMMEDIATE COAST A BIT COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S.

MONDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
START TO BUILD INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND
WITH DRIER NORTHWESTERLY WINDS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RADIATE OUT A
BIT MORE.  EXPECT LOWS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* VERY WARM ON TUESDAY EXCEPT COOLER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND COAST
* UNSEASONABLY HOT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
* A BIT COOLER FRI INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL
* MAINLY DRY OTHER THEN PERHAPS A SPOT SHOWER/STORM THU

DETAILS...

ALL MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER RIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.  THIS
MEANS ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER.  WE MAY SEE ENOUGH FORCING TO SPARK A FEW SPOT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SOMETIME THU INTO THU EVENING WITH A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT.  HOWEVER...ODDS ARE AGAINST ANY WIDESPREAD MEANINGFUL
RAINFALL GIVEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING...SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE SLIGHT
CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW.

THE EXCEPTION FROM THE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL BE TUESDAY
ACROSS COASTAL NEW ENGLAND...WHEN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT KEEPS HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S.  HOWEVER...THE LOWER CT
RIVER VALLEY SHOULD STILL SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S ON TUE AND ITS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOMEONE TOUCHES 90.

THE HOTTEST WEATHER LOOK TO BE WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO THURSDAY
WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 18C.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S AND LOWER 90S AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW LOCATIONS
HIT THE MIDDLE 90S.

ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL COOL TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES FRI
INTO SAT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.  HOWEVER...STILL
EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL RIGHT THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND GIVEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN CONTROL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN CT EARLY THIS EVENING.
ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN...BUT COULD ENTER PORTIONS OF RHODE ISLAND IN
A WEAKENED FORM.  OTHERWISE...VFR THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT OTHER THAN
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  THUNDERSTORM
WILL EXIT THE BDL TERMINAL BY 00Z.  OTHERWISE...VFR OTHER THAN
PERHAPS A FEW HOURS OF PATCHY GROUND FOG LATE.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD OTHER THAN VERY LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.  A SPOT
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE THU/THU EVENING...BUT
ODDS ARE AGAINST ANYTHING WIDESPREAD.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS WILL KEEP WINDS
AND WAVES BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS
EXPECTED. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF 5 FOOT
SEAS ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  VISIBILITY SHOULD BE
GOOD AS WELL...SO NICE BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TUE AND AGAIN SOMETIME THU INTO FRI WILL SHIFT
WINDS TO THE EAST...BUT GUSTS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN 20
KNOTS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/FRANK
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...FRANK/RLG
MARINE...RLG/FRANK




000
FXUS61 KBOX 302312
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
712 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
ACROSS NORTHERN CT...WILL GIVE WAY TO DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING
TREND THROUGH MONDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER
WEATHER TUESDAY BUT MAINLY JUST TO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND... BEFORE
UNSEASONABLY HOT WEATHER RETURNS TO MOST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER
WEATHER FRIDAY INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER CONTINUING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...

710 PM UPDATE...

WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH ABOUT 500 TO 1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE HAS
ALLOWED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS NORTHERN CONNECTICUT.  GIVEN MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND POOR
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
SO. SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY SURVIVE IN A WEAKENED FORM INTO PORTIONS OF
RHODE ISLAND...BUT PROBABLY NOTHING MORE THAN A SPOT SPRINKLE/SHOWER
OR TWO BY THE TIME ACTIVITY REACHES SOUTHEAST MA.

OTHERWISE...AN ABUNDANCE OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS THIS EVENING SHOULD
BEGIN TO CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT.  HOWEVER...CLOUDS MAY
HANG TOUGH NEAR THE SOUTH COAST THROUGH DAYBREAK.  LOW TEMPS SHOULD
RANGE FROM AROUND 60 IN THE NORMALLY COOLER OUTLYING LOCATIONS OF
NORTHWEST MA...TO MAINLY THE 60S TO AROUND 70 ELSEWHERE.  PATCHY
GROUND FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP LATE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM QUEBEC INTO THE MARITIMES WILL
BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH MAINE AND INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND.  STILL SEEING QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR ACROSS THE REGION
SO AM NOT EXPECTING ANY RAIN AND EVEN A FEW DIURNAL CLOUDS SEEM TO
STRUGGLE.  STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTRIBUTES TO THE DRY
AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS BUT ALSO BRINGS WARMER 850MB TEMPS
INTO THE REGION. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND
90 FOR MOST LOCATIONS.  ONSHORE WINDS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WILL
KEEP THE IMMEDIATE COAST A BIT COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S.

MONDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
START TO BUILD INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND
WITH DRIER NORTHWESTERLY WINDS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RADIATE OUT A
BIT MORE.  EXPECT LOWS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* VERY WARM ON TUESDAY EXCEPT COOLER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND COAST
* UNSEASONABLY HOT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
* A BIT COOLER FRI INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL
* MAINLY DRY OTHER THEN PERHAPS A SPOT SHOWER/STORM THU

DETAILS...

ALL MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER RIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.  THIS
MEANS ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER.  WE MAY SEE ENOUGH FORCING TO SPARK A FEW SPOT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SOMETIME THU INTO THU EVENING WITH A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT.  HOWEVER...ODDS ARE AGAINST ANY WIDESPREAD MEANINGFUL
RAINFALL GIVEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING...SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE SLIGHT
CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW.

THE EXCEPTION FROM THE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL BE TUESDAY
ACROSS COASTAL NEW ENGLAND...WHEN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT KEEPS HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S.  HOWEVER...THE LOWER CT
RIVER VALLEY SHOULD STILL SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S ON TUE AND ITS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOMEONE TOUCHES 90.

THE HOTTEST WEATHER LOOK TO BE WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO THURSDAY
WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 18C.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S AND LOWER 90S AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW LOCATIONS
HIT THE MIDDLE 90S.

ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL COOL TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES FRI
INTO SAT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.  HOWEVER...STILL
EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL RIGHT THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND GIVEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN CONTROL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN CT EARLY THIS EVENING.
ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN...BUT COULD ENTER PORTIONS OF RHODE ISLAND IN
A WEAKENED FORM.  OTHERWISE...VFR THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT OTHER THAN
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  THUNDERSTORM
WILL EXIT THE BDL TERMINAL BY 00Z.  OTHERWISE...VFR OTHER THAN
PERHAPS A FEW HOURS OF PATCHY GROUND FOG LATE.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD OTHER THAN VERY LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.  A SPOT
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE THU/THU EVENING...BUT
ODDS ARE AGAINST ANYTHING WIDESPREAD.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS WILL KEEP WINDS
AND WAVES BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS
EXPECTED. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF 5 FOOT
SEAS ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  VISIBILITY SHOULD BE
GOOD AS WELL...SO NICE BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TUE AND AGAIN SOMETIME THU INTO FRI WILL SHIFT
WINDS TO THE EAST...BUT GUSTS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN 20
KNOTS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/FRANK
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...FRANK/RLG
MARINE...RLG/FRANK



000
FXUS61 KBOX 302220
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
620 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A FEW SHOWERS THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN CT...WILL GIVE WAY TO DRY
WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND THROUGH MONDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
WILL BRING COOLER WEATHER TUESDAY BUT MAINLY JUST TO EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND... BEFORE UNSEASONABLY HOT WEATHER RETURNS TO MOST OF THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD
BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER FRIDAY INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER
CONTINUING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...

620 PM UPDATE...

WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH ABOUT 500 J/KG OF MLCAPE HAS ALLOWED
SCATTERED HIT AND MISS SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN CT
ALONG WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.  ACTIVITY MAY SURVIVE IN A
WEAKENED FORM INTO RHODE ISLAND EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT THEN PRETTY
MUCH FALL APART TO JUST SPRINKLES IF IT MAKES IT INTO SOUTHEAST MA
WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY AND POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

ENOUGH MOISTURE REMAINS FOR MID CLOUDS TO STICK AROUND THROUGH MUCH
OF THE NIGHT. THIS MEANS A MILD NIGHT IN STORE WITH LOWS IN THE MID
60S TO AROUND 70.  PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP AGAIN IN THE USUAL
LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM QUEBEC INTO THE MARITIMES WILL
BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH MAINE AND INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND.  STILL SEEING QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR ACROSS THE REGION
SO AM NOT EXPECTING ANY RAIN AND EVEN A FEW DIURNAL CLOUDS SEEM TO
STRUGGLE.  STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTRIBUTES TO THE DRY
AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS BUT ALSO BRINGS WARMER 850MB TEMPS
INTO THE REGION. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND
90 FOR MOST LOCATIONS.  ONSHORE WINDS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WILL
KEEP THE IMMEDIATE COAST A BIT COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S.

MONDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
START TO BUILD INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND
WITH DRIER NORTHWESTERLY WINDS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RADIATE OUT A
BIT MORE.  EXPECT LOWS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* VERY WARM ON TUESDAY EXCEPT COOLER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND COAST
* UNSEASONABLY HOT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
* A BIT COOLER FRI INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL
* MAINLY DRY OTHER THEN PERHAPS A SPOT SHOWER/STORM THU

DETAILS...

ALL MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER RIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.  THIS
MEANS ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER.  WE MAY SEE ENOUGH FORCING TO SPARK A FEW SPOT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SOMETIME THU INTO THU EVENING WITH A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT.  HOWEVER...ODDS ARE AGAINST ANY WIDESPREAD MEANINGFUL
RAINFALL GIVEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING...SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE SLIGHT
CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW.

THE EXCEPTION FROM THE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL BE TUESDAY
ACROSS COASTAL NEW ENGLAND...WHEN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT KEEPS HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S.  HOWEVER...THE LOWER CT
RIVER VALLEY SHOULD STILL SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S ON TUE AND ITS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOMEONE TOUCHES 90.

THE HOTTEST WEATHER LOOK TO BE WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO THURSDAY
WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 18C.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S AND LOWER 90S AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW LOCATIONS
HIT THE MIDDLE 90S.

ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL COOL TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES FRI
INTO SAT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.  HOWEVER...STILL
EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL RIGHT THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND GIVEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN CONTROL.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

VFR TODAY WITH CIGS AOA 060 AND BRIEF SPRINKLE POSSIBLE. LOCAL
MVFR/IFR VSBYS AGAIN LATER TONIGHT AND AGAIN MON NIGHT IN PATCHY
VALLEY FOG. VFR MON.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD OTHER THAN VERY LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.  A SPOT
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE THU/THU EVENING...BUT
ODDS ARE AGAINST ANYTHING WIDESPREAD.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS WILL KEEP WINDS
AND WAVES BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS
EXPECTED. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF 5 FOOT
SEAS ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  VISIBILITY SHOULD BE
GOOD AS WELL...SO NICE BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TUE AND AGAIN SOMETIME THU INTO FRI WILL SHIFT
WINDS TO THE EAST...BUT GUSTS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN 20
KNOTS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/FRANK
NEAR TERM...FRANK/RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...RLG/FRANK
MARINE...RLG/FRANK




000
FXUS61 KBOX 302220
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
620 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A FEW SHOWERS THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN CT...WILL GIVE WAY TO DRY
WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND THROUGH MONDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
WILL BRING COOLER WEATHER TUESDAY BUT MAINLY JUST TO EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND... BEFORE UNSEASONABLY HOT WEATHER RETURNS TO MOST OF THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD
BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER FRIDAY INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER
CONTINUING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...

620 PM UPDATE...

WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH ABOUT 500 J/KG OF MLCAPE HAS ALLOWED
SCATTERED HIT AND MISS SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN CT
ALONG WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.  ACTIVITY MAY SURVIVE IN A
WEAKENED FORM INTO RHODE ISLAND EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT THEN PRETTY
MUCH FALL APART TO JUST SPRINKLES IF IT MAKES IT INTO SOUTHEAST MA
WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY AND POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

ENOUGH MOISTURE REMAINS FOR MID CLOUDS TO STICK AROUND THROUGH MUCH
OF THE NIGHT. THIS MEANS A MILD NIGHT IN STORE WITH LOWS IN THE MID
60S TO AROUND 70.  PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP AGAIN IN THE USUAL
LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM QUEBEC INTO THE MARITIMES WILL
BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH MAINE AND INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND.  STILL SEEING QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR ACROSS THE REGION
SO AM NOT EXPECTING ANY RAIN AND EVEN A FEW DIURNAL CLOUDS SEEM TO
STRUGGLE.  STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTRIBUTES TO THE DRY
AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS BUT ALSO BRINGS WARMER 850MB TEMPS
INTO THE REGION. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND
90 FOR MOST LOCATIONS.  ONSHORE WINDS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WILL
KEEP THE IMMEDIATE COAST A BIT COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S.

MONDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
START TO BUILD INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND
WITH DRIER NORTHWESTERLY WINDS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RADIATE OUT A
BIT MORE.  EXPECT LOWS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* VERY WARM ON TUESDAY EXCEPT COOLER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND COAST
* UNSEASONABLY HOT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
* A BIT COOLER FRI INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL
* MAINLY DRY OTHER THEN PERHAPS A SPOT SHOWER/STORM THU

DETAILS...

ALL MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER RIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.  THIS
MEANS ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER.  WE MAY SEE ENOUGH FORCING TO SPARK A FEW SPOT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SOMETIME THU INTO THU EVENING WITH A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT.  HOWEVER...ODDS ARE AGAINST ANY WIDESPREAD MEANINGFUL
RAINFALL GIVEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING...SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE SLIGHT
CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW.

THE EXCEPTION FROM THE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL BE TUESDAY
ACROSS COASTAL NEW ENGLAND...WHEN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT KEEPS HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S.  HOWEVER...THE LOWER CT
RIVER VALLEY SHOULD STILL SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S ON TUE AND ITS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOMEONE TOUCHES 90.

THE HOTTEST WEATHER LOOK TO BE WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO THURSDAY
WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 18C.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S AND LOWER 90S AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW LOCATIONS
HIT THE MIDDLE 90S.

ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL COOL TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES FRI
INTO SAT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.  HOWEVER...STILL
EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL RIGHT THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND GIVEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN CONTROL.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

VFR TODAY WITH CIGS AOA 060 AND BRIEF SPRINKLE POSSIBLE. LOCAL
MVFR/IFR VSBYS AGAIN LATER TONIGHT AND AGAIN MON NIGHT IN PATCHY
VALLEY FOG. VFR MON.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD OTHER THAN VERY LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.  A SPOT
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE THU/THU EVENING...BUT
ODDS ARE AGAINST ANYTHING WIDESPREAD.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS WILL KEEP WINDS
AND WAVES BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS
EXPECTED. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF 5 FOOT
SEAS ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  VISIBILITY SHOULD BE
GOOD AS WELL...SO NICE BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TUE AND AGAIN SOMETIME THU INTO FRI WILL SHIFT
WINDS TO THE EAST...BUT GUSTS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN 20
KNOTS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/FRANK
NEAR TERM...FRANK/RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...RLG/FRANK
MARINE...RLG/FRANK



000
FXUS61 KBOX 302220
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
620 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A FEW SHOWERS THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN CT...WILL GIVE WAY TO DRY
WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND THROUGH MONDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
WILL BRING COOLER WEATHER TUESDAY BUT MAINLY JUST TO EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND... BEFORE UNSEASONABLY HOT WEATHER RETURNS TO MOST OF THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD
BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER FRIDAY INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER
CONTINUING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...

620 PM UPDATE...

WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH ABOUT 500 J/KG OF MLCAPE HAS ALLOWED
SCATTERED HIT AND MISS SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN CT
ALONG WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.  ACTIVITY MAY SURVIVE IN A
WEAKENED FORM INTO RHODE ISLAND EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT THEN PRETTY
MUCH FALL APART TO JUST SPRINKLES IF IT MAKES IT INTO SOUTHEAST MA
WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY AND POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

ENOUGH MOISTURE REMAINS FOR MID CLOUDS TO STICK AROUND THROUGH MUCH
OF THE NIGHT. THIS MEANS A MILD NIGHT IN STORE WITH LOWS IN THE MID
60S TO AROUND 70.  PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP AGAIN IN THE USUAL
LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM QUEBEC INTO THE MARITIMES WILL
BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH MAINE AND INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND.  STILL SEEING QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR ACROSS THE REGION
SO AM NOT EXPECTING ANY RAIN AND EVEN A FEW DIURNAL CLOUDS SEEM TO
STRUGGLE.  STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTRIBUTES TO THE DRY
AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS BUT ALSO BRINGS WARMER 850MB TEMPS
INTO THE REGION. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND
90 FOR MOST LOCATIONS.  ONSHORE WINDS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WILL
KEEP THE IMMEDIATE COAST A BIT COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S.

MONDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
START TO BUILD INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND
WITH DRIER NORTHWESTERLY WINDS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RADIATE OUT A
BIT MORE.  EXPECT LOWS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* VERY WARM ON TUESDAY EXCEPT COOLER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND COAST
* UNSEASONABLY HOT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
* A BIT COOLER FRI INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL
* MAINLY DRY OTHER THEN PERHAPS A SPOT SHOWER/STORM THU

DETAILS...

ALL MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER RIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.  THIS
MEANS ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER.  WE MAY SEE ENOUGH FORCING TO SPARK A FEW SPOT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SOMETIME THU INTO THU EVENING WITH A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT.  HOWEVER...ODDS ARE AGAINST ANY WIDESPREAD MEANINGFUL
RAINFALL GIVEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING...SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE SLIGHT
CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW.

THE EXCEPTION FROM THE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL BE TUESDAY
ACROSS COASTAL NEW ENGLAND...WHEN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT KEEPS HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S.  HOWEVER...THE LOWER CT
RIVER VALLEY SHOULD STILL SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S ON TUE AND ITS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOMEONE TOUCHES 90.

THE HOTTEST WEATHER LOOK TO BE WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO THURSDAY
WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 18C.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S AND LOWER 90S AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW LOCATIONS
HIT THE MIDDLE 90S.

ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL COOL TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES FRI
INTO SAT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.  HOWEVER...STILL
EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL RIGHT THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND GIVEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN CONTROL.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

VFR TODAY WITH CIGS AOA 060 AND BRIEF SPRINKLE POSSIBLE. LOCAL
MVFR/IFR VSBYS AGAIN LATER TONIGHT AND AGAIN MON NIGHT IN PATCHY
VALLEY FOG. VFR MON.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD OTHER THAN VERY LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.  A SPOT
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE THU/THU EVENING...BUT
ODDS ARE AGAINST ANYTHING WIDESPREAD.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS WILL KEEP WINDS
AND WAVES BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS
EXPECTED. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF 5 FOOT
SEAS ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  VISIBILITY SHOULD BE
GOOD AS WELL...SO NICE BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TUE AND AGAIN SOMETIME THU INTO FRI WILL SHIFT
WINDS TO THE EAST...BUT GUSTS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN 20
KNOTS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/FRANK
NEAR TERM...FRANK/RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...RLG/FRANK
MARINE...RLG/FRANK



000
FXUS61 KBOX 302220
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
620 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A FEW SHOWERS THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN CT...WILL GIVE WAY TO DRY
WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND THROUGH MONDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
WILL BRING COOLER WEATHER TUESDAY BUT MAINLY JUST TO EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND... BEFORE UNSEASONABLY HOT WEATHER RETURNS TO MOST OF THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD
BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER FRIDAY INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER
CONTINUING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...

620 PM UPDATE...

WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH ABOUT 500 J/KG OF MLCAPE HAS ALLOWED
SCATTERED HIT AND MISS SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN CT
ALONG WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.  ACTIVITY MAY SURVIVE IN A
WEAKENED FORM INTO RHODE ISLAND EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT THEN PRETTY
MUCH FALL APART TO JUST SPRINKLES IF IT MAKES IT INTO SOUTHEAST MA
WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY AND POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

ENOUGH MOISTURE REMAINS FOR MID CLOUDS TO STICK AROUND THROUGH MUCH
OF THE NIGHT. THIS MEANS A MILD NIGHT IN STORE WITH LOWS IN THE MID
60S TO AROUND 70.  PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP AGAIN IN THE USUAL
LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM QUEBEC INTO THE MARITIMES WILL
BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH MAINE AND INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND.  STILL SEEING QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR ACROSS THE REGION
SO AM NOT EXPECTING ANY RAIN AND EVEN A FEW DIURNAL CLOUDS SEEM TO
STRUGGLE.  STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTRIBUTES TO THE DRY
AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS BUT ALSO BRINGS WARMER 850MB TEMPS
INTO THE REGION. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND
90 FOR MOST LOCATIONS.  ONSHORE WINDS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WILL
KEEP THE IMMEDIATE COAST A BIT COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S.

MONDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
START TO BUILD INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND
WITH DRIER NORTHWESTERLY WINDS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RADIATE OUT A
BIT MORE.  EXPECT LOWS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* VERY WARM ON TUESDAY EXCEPT COOLER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND COAST
* UNSEASONABLY HOT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
* A BIT COOLER FRI INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL
* MAINLY DRY OTHER THEN PERHAPS A SPOT SHOWER/STORM THU

DETAILS...

ALL MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER RIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.  THIS
MEANS ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER.  WE MAY SEE ENOUGH FORCING TO SPARK A FEW SPOT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SOMETIME THU INTO THU EVENING WITH A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT.  HOWEVER...ODDS ARE AGAINST ANY WIDESPREAD MEANINGFUL
RAINFALL GIVEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING...SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE SLIGHT
CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW.

THE EXCEPTION FROM THE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL BE TUESDAY
ACROSS COASTAL NEW ENGLAND...WHEN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT KEEPS HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S.  HOWEVER...THE LOWER CT
RIVER VALLEY SHOULD STILL SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S ON TUE AND ITS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOMEONE TOUCHES 90.

THE HOTTEST WEATHER LOOK TO BE WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO THURSDAY
WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 18C.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S AND LOWER 90S AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW LOCATIONS
HIT THE MIDDLE 90S.

ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL COOL TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES FRI
INTO SAT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.  HOWEVER...STILL
EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL RIGHT THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND GIVEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN CONTROL.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

VFR TODAY WITH CIGS AOA 060 AND BRIEF SPRINKLE POSSIBLE. LOCAL
MVFR/IFR VSBYS AGAIN LATER TONIGHT AND AGAIN MON NIGHT IN PATCHY
VALLEY FOG. VFR MON.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD OTHER THAN VERY LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.  A SPOT
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE THU/THU EVENING...BUT
ODDS ARE AGAINST ANYTHING WIDESPREAD.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS WILL KEEP WINDS
AND WAVES BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS
EXPECTED. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF 5 FOOT
SEAS ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  VISIBILITY SHOULD BE
GOOD AS WELL...SO NICE BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TUE AND AGAIN SOMETIME THU INTO FRI WILL SHIFT
WINDS TO THE EAST...BUT GUSTS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN 20
KNOTS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/FRANK
NEAR TERM...FRANK/RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...RLG/FRANK
MARINE...RLG/FRANK




000
FXUS61 KBOX 302211
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
610 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A FEW SHOWERS THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN CT...WILL GIVE WAY TO DRY
WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND THROUGH MONDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
WILL BRING COOLER WEATHER TUESDAY BUT MAINLY JUST TO EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND... BEFORE UNSEASONABLY HOT WEATHER RETURNS TO MOST OF THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD
BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER FRIDAY INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER
CONTINUING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...

610 PM UPDATE...

WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH ABOUT 500 J/KG OF MLCAPE HAS ALLOWED
SCATTERED HIT AND MISS SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN CT.  CAN
NOT RULE OUT A CLAP OR TWO OF THUNDER IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...BUT
MAINLY LOOKING AT JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS.  ACTIVITY MAY SURVIVE IN A
WEAKENED FORM INTO RHODE ISLAND EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT THEN PRETTY
MUCH FALL APART TO JUST SPRINKLES IF IT MAKES IT INTO SOUTHEAST MA
WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY AND POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

ENOUGH MOISTURE REMAINS FOR MID CLOUDS TO STICK AROUND THROUGH MUCH
OF THE NIGHT. THIS MEANS A MILD NIGHT IN STORE WITH LOWS IN THE MID
60S TO AROUND 70.  PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP AGAIN IN THE USUAL
LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM QUEBEC INTO THE MARITIMES WILL
BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH MAINE AND INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND.  STILL SEEING QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR ACROSS THE REGION
SO AM NOT EXPECTING ANY RAIN AND EVEN A FEW DIURNAL CLOUDS SEEM TO
STRUGGLE.  STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTRIBUTES TO THE DRY
AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS BUT ALSO BRINGS WARMER 850MB TEMPS
INTO THE REGION. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND
90 FOR MOST LOCATIONS.  ONSHORE WINDS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WILL
KEEP THE IMMEDIATE COAST A BIT COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S.

MONDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
START TO BUILD INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND
WITH DRIER NORTHWESTERLY WINDS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RADIATE OUT A
BIT MORE.  EXPECT LOWS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* VERY WARM ON TUESDAY EXCEPT COOLER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND COAST
* UNSEASONABLY HOT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
* A BIT COOLER FRI INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL
* MAINLY DRY OTHER THEN PERHAPS A SPOT SHOWER/STORM THU

DETAILS...

ALL MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER RIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.  THIS
MEANS ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER.  WE MAY SEE ENOUGH FORCING TO SPARK A FEW SPOT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SOMETIME THU INTO THU EVENING WITH A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT.  HOWEVER...ODDS ARE AGAINST ANY WIDESPREAD MEANINGFUL
RAINFALL GIVEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING...SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE SLIGHT
CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW.

THE EXCEPTION FROM THE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL BE TUESDAY
ACROSS COASTAL NEW ENGLAND...WHEN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT KEEPS HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S.  HOWEVER...THE LOWER CT
RIVER VALLEY SHOULD STILL SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S ON TUE AND ITS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOMEONE TOUCHES 90.

THE HOTTEST WEATHER LOOK TO BE WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO THURSDAY
WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 18C.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S AND LOWER 90S AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW LOCATIONS
HIT THE MIDDLE 90S.

ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL COOL TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES FRI
INTO SAT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.  HOWEVER...STILL
EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL RIGHT THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND GIVEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN CONTROL.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

VFR TODAY WITH CIGS AOA 060 AND BRIEF SPRINKLE POSSIBLE. LOCAL
MVFR/IFR VSBYS AGAIN LATER TONIGHT AND AGAIN MON NIGHT IN PATCHY
VALLEY FOG. VFR MON.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD OTHER THAN VERY LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.  A SPOT
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE THU/THU EVENING...BUT
ODDS ARE AGAINST ANYTHING WIDESPREAD.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS WILL KEEP WINDS
AND WAVES BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS
EXPECTED. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF 5 FOOT
SEAS ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  VISIBILITY SHOULD BE
GOOD AS WELL...SO NICE BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TUE AND AGAIN SOMETIME THU INTO FRI WILL SHIFT
WINDS TO THE EAST...BUT GUSTS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN 20
KNOTS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/FRANK
NEAR TERM...FRANK/RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...RLG/FRANK
MARINE...RLG/FRANK




000
FXUS61 KBOX 302211
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
610 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A FEW SHOWERS THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN CT...WILL GIVE WAY TO DRY
WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND THROUGH MONDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
WILL BRING COOLER WEATHER TUESDAY BUT MAINLY JUST TO EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND... BEFORE UNSEASONABLY HOT WEATHER RETURNS TO MOST OF THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD
BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER FRIDAY INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER
CONTINUING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...

610 PM UPDATE...

WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH ABOUT 500 J/KG OF MLCAPE HAS ALLOWED
SCATTERED HIT AND MISS SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN CT.  CAN
NOT RULE OUT A CLAP OR TWO OF THUNDER IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...BUT
MAINLY LOOKING AT JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS.  ACTIVITY MAY SURVIVE IN A
WEAKENED FORM INTO RHODE ISLAND EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT THEN PRETTY
MUCH FALL APART TO JUST SPRINKLES IF IT MAKES IT INTO SOUTHEAST MA
WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY AND POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

ENOUGH MOISTURE REMAINS FOR MID CLOUDS TO STICK AROUND THROUGH MUCH
OF THE NIGHT. THIS MEANS A MILD NIGHT IN STORE WITH LOWS IN THE MID
60S TO AROUND 70.  PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP AGAIN IN THE USUAL
LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM QUEBEC INTO THE MARITIMES WILL
BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH MAINE AND INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND.  STILL SEEING QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR ACROSS THE REGION
SO AM NOT EXPECTING ANY RAIN AND EVEN A FEW DIURNAL CLOUDS SEEM TO
STRUGGLE.  STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTRIBUTES TO THE DRY
AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS BUT ALSO BRINGS WARMER 850MB TEMPS
INTO THE REGION. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND
90 FOR MOST LOCATIONS.  ONSHORE WINDS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WILL
KEEP THE IMMEDIATE COAST A BIT COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S.

MONDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
START TO BUILD INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND
WITH DRIER NORTHWESTERLY WINDS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RADIATE OUT A
BIT MORE.  EXPECT LOWS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* VERY WARM ON TUESDAY EXCEPT COOLER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND COAST
* UNSEASONABLY HOT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
* A BIT COOLER FRI INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL
* MAINLY DRY OTHER THEN PERHAPS A SPOT SHOWER/STORM THU

DETAILS...

ALL MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER RIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.  THIS
MEANS ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER.  WE MAY SEE ENOUGH FORCING TO SPARK A FEW SPOT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SOMETIME THU INTO THU EVENING WITH A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT.  HOWEVER...ODDS ARE AGAINST ANY WIDESPREAD MEANINGFUL
RAINFALL GIVEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING...SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE SLIGHT
CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW.

THE EXCEPTION FROM THE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL BE TUESDAY
ACROSS COASTAL NEW ENGLAND...WHEN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT KEEPS HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S.  HOWEVER...THE LOWER CT
RIVER VALLEY SHOULD STILL SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S ON TUE AND ITS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOMEONE TOUCHES 90.

THE HOTTEST WEATHER LOOK TO BE WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO THURSDAY
WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 18C.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S AND LOWER 90S AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW LOCATIONS
HIT THE MIDDLE 90S.

ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL COOL TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES FRI
INTO SAT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.  HOWEVER...STILL
EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL RIGHT THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND GIVEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN CONTROL.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

VFR TODAY WITH CIGS AOA 060 AND BRIEF SPRINKLE POSSIBLE. LOCAL
MVFR/IFR VSBYS AGAIN LATER TONIGHT AND AGAIN MON NIGHT IN PATCHY
VALLEY FOG. VFR MON.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD OTHER THAN VERY LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.  A SPOT
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE THU/THU EVENING...BUT
ODDS ARE AGAINST ANYTHING WIDESPREAD.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS WILL KEEP WINDS
AND WAVES BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS
EXPECTED. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF 5 FOOT
SEAS ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  VISIBILITY SHOULD BE
GOOD AS WELL...SO NICE BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TUE AND AGAIN SOMETIME THU INTO FRI WILL SHIFT
WINDS TO THE EAST...BUT GUSTS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN 20
KNOTS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/FRANK
NEAR TERM...FRANK/RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...RLG/FRANK
MARINE...RLG/FRANK



000
FXUS61 KBOX 302211
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
610 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A FEW SHOWERS THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN CT...WILL GIVE WAY TO DRY
WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND THROUGH MONDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
WILL BRING COOLER WEATHER TUESDAY BUT MAINLY JUST TO EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND... BEFORE UNSEASONABLY HOT WEATHER RETURNS TO MOST OF THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD
BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER FRIDAY INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER
CONTINUING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...

610 PM UPDATE...

WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH ABOUT 500 J/KG OF MLCAPE HAS ALLOWED
SCATTERED HIT AND MISS SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN CT.  CAN
NOT RULE OUT A CLAP OR TWO OF THUNDER IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...BUT
MAINLY LOOKING AT JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS.  ACTIVITY MAY SURVIVE IN A
WEAKENED FORM INTO RHODE ISLAND EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT THEN PRETTY
MUCH FALL APART TO JUST SPRINKLES IF IT MAKES IT INTO SOUTHEAST MA
WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY AND POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

ENOUGH MOISTURE REMAINS FOR MID CLOUDS TO STICK AROUND THROUGH MUCH
OF THE NIGHT. THIS MEANS A MILD NIGHT IN STORE WITH LOWS IN THE MID
60S TO AROUND 70.  PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP AGAIN IN THE USUAL
LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM QUEBEC INTO THE MARITIMES WILL
BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH MAINE AND INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND.  STILL SEEING QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR ACROSS THE REGION
SO AM NOT EXPECTING ANY RAIN AND EVEN A FEW DIURNAL CLOUDS SEEM TO
STRUGGLE.  STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTRIBUTES TO THE DRY
AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS BUT ALSO BRINGS WARMER 850MB TEMPS
INTO THE REGION. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND
90 FOR MOST LOCATIONS.  ONSHORE WINDS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WILL
KEEP THE IMMEDIATE COAST A BIT COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S.

MONDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
START TO BUILD INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND
WITH DRIER NORTHWESTERLY WINDS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RADIATE OUT A
BIT MORE.  EXPECT LOWS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* VERY WARM ON TUESDAY EXCEPT COOLER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND COAST
* UNSEASONABLY HOT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
* A BIT COOLER FRI INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL
* MAINLY DRY OTHER THEN PERHAPS A SPOT SHOWER/STORM THU

DETAILS...

ALL MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER RIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.  THIS
MEANS ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER.  WE MAY SEE ENOUGH FORCING TO SPARK A FEW SPOT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SOMETIME THU INTO THU EVENING WITH A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT.  HOWEVER...ODDS ARE AGAINST ANY WIDESPREAD MEANINGFUL
RAINFALL GIVEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING...SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE SLIGHT
CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW.

THE EXCEPTION FROM THE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL BE TUESDAY
ACROSS COASTAL NEW ENGLAND...WHEN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT KEEPS HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S.  HOWEVER...THE LOWER CT
RIVER VALLEY SHOULD STILL SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S ON TUE AND ITS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOMEONE TOUCHES 90.

THE HOTTEST WEATHER LOOK TO BE WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO THURSDAY
WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 18C.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S AND LOWER 90S AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW LOCATIONS
HIT THE MIDDLE 90S.

ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL COOL TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES FRI
INTO SAT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.  HOWEVER...STILL
EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL RIGHT THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND GIVEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN CONTROL.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

VFR TODAY WITH CIGS AOA 060 AND BRIEF SPRINKLE POSSIBLE. LOCAL
MVFR/IFR VSBYS AGAIN LATER TONIGHT AND AGAIN MON NIGHT IN PATCHY
VALLEY FOG. VFR MON.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD OTHER THAN VERY LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.  A SPOT
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE THU/THU EVENING...BUT
ODDS ARE AGAINST ANYTHING WIDESPREAD.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS WILL KEEP WINDS
AND WAVES BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS
EXPECTED. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF 5 FOOT
SEAS ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  VISIBILITY SHOULD BE
GOOD AS WELL...SO NICE BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TUE AND AGAIN SOMETIME THU INTO FRI WILL SHIFT
WINDS TO THE EAST...BUT GUSTS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN 20
KNOTS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/FRANK
NEAR TERM...FRANK/RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...RLG/FRANK
MARINE...RLG/FRANK



000
FXUS61 KBOX 302211
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
610 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A FEW SHOWERS THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN CT...WILL GIVE WAY TO DRY
WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND THROUGH MONDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
WILL BRING COOLER WEATHER TUESDAY BUT MAINLY JUST TO EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND... BEFORE UNSEASONABLY HOT WEATHER RETURNS TO MOST OF THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD
BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER FRIDAY INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER
CONTINUING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...

610 PM UPDATE...

WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH ABOUT 500 J/KG OF MLCAPE HAS ALLOWED
SCATTERED HIT AND MISS SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN CT.  CAN
NOT RULE OUT A CLAP OR TWO OF THUNDER IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...BUT
MAINLY LOOKING AT JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS.  ACTIVITY MAY SURVIVE IN A
WEAKENED FORM INTO RHODE ISLAND EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT THEN PRETTY
MUCH FALL APART TO JUST SPRINKLES IF IT MAKES IT INTO SOUTHEAST MA
WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY AND POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

ENOUGH MOISTURE REMAINS FOR MID CLOUDS TO STICK AROUND THROUGH MUCH
OF THE NIGHT. THIS MEANS A MILD NIGHT IN STORE WITH LOWS IN THE MID
60S TO AROUND 70.  PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP AGAIN IN THE USUAL
LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM QUEBEC INTO THE MARITIMES WILL
BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH MAINE AND INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND.  STILL SEEING QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR ACROSS THE REGION
SO AM NOT EXPECTING ANY RAIN AND EVEN A FEW DIURNAL CLOUDS SEEM TO
STRUGGLE.  STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTRIBUTES TO THE DRY
AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS BUT ALSO BRINGS WARMER 850MB TEMPS
INTO THE REGION. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND
90 FOR MOST LOCATIONS.  ONSHORE WINDS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WILL
KEEP THE IMMEDIATE COAST A BIT COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S.

MONDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
START TO BUILD INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND
WITH DRIER NORTHWESTERLY WINDS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RADIATE OUT A
BIT MORE.  EXPECT LOWS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* VERY WARM ON TUESDAY EXCEPT COOLER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND COAST
* UNSEASONABLY HOT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
* A BIT COOLER FRI INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL
* MAINLY DRY OTHER THEN PERHAPS A SPOT SHOWER/STORM THU

DETAILS...

ALL MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER RIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.  THIS
MEANS ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER.  WE MAY SEE ENOUGH FORCING TO SPARK A FEW SPOT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SOMETIME THU INTO THU EVENING WITH A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT.  HOWEVER...ODDS ARE AGAINST ANY WIDESPREAD MEANINGFUL
RAINFALL GIVEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING...SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE SLIGHT
CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW.

THE EXCEPTION FROM THE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL BE TUESDAY
ACROSS COASTAL NEW ENGLAND...WHEN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT KEEPS HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S.  HOWEVER...THE LOWER CT
RIVER VALLEY SHOULD STILL SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S ON TUE AND ITS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOMEONE TOUCHES 90.

THE HOTTEST WEATHER LOOK TO BE WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO THURSDAY
WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 18C.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S AND LOWER 90S AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW LOCATIONS
HIT THE MIDDLE 90S.

ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL COOL TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES FRI
INTO SAT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.  HOWEVER...STILL
EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL RIGHT THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND GIVEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN CONTROL.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

VFR TODAY WITH CIGS AOA 060 AND BRIEF SPRINKLE POSSIBLE. LOCAL
MVFR/IFR VSBYS AGAIN LATER TONIGHT AND AGAIN MON NIGHT IN PATCHY
VALLEY FOG. VFR MON.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD OTHER THAN VERY LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.  A SPOT
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE THU/THU EVENING...BUT
ODDS ARE AGAINST ANYTHING WIDESPREAD.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS WILL KEEP WINDS
AND WAVES BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS
EXPECTED. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF 5 FOOT
SEAS ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  VISIBILITY SHOULD BE
GOOD AS WELL...SO NICE BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TUE AND AGAIN SOMETIME THU INTO FRI WILL SHIFT
WINDS TO THE EAST...BUT GUSTS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN 20
KNOTS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/FRANK
NEAR TERM...FRANK/RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...RLG/FRANK
MARINE...RLG/FRANK



000
FXUS61 KBOX 302211
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
610 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A FEW SHOWERS THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN CT...WILL GIVE WAY TO DRY
WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND THROUGH MONDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
WILL BRING COOLER WEATHER TUESDAY BUT MAINLY JUST TO EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND... BEFORE UNSEASONABLY HOT WEATHER RETURNS TO MOST OF THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD
BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER FRIDAY INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER
CONTINUING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...

610 PM UPDATE...

WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH ABOUT 500 J/KG OF MLCAPE HAS ALLOWED
SCATTERED HIT AND MISS SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN CT.  CAN
NOT RULE OUT A CLAP OR TWO OF THUNDER IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...BUT
MAINLY LOOKING AT JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS.  ACTIVITY MAY SURVIVE IN A
WEAKENED FORM INTO RHODE ISLAND EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT THEN PRETTY
MUCH FALL APART TO JUST SPRINKLES IF IT MAKES IT INTO SOUTHEAST MA
WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY AND POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

ENOUGH MOISTURE REMAINS FOR MID CLOUDS TO STICK AROUND THROUGH MUCH
OF THE NIGHT. THIS MEANS A MILD NIGHT IN STORE WITH LOWS IN THE MID
60S TO AROUND 70.  PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP AGAIN IN THE USUAL
LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM QUEBEC INTO THE MARITIMES WILL
BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH MAINE AND INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND.  STILL SEEING QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR ACROSS THE REGION
SO AM NOT EXPECTING ANY RAIN AND EVEN A FEW DIURNAL CLOUDS SEEM TO
STRUGGLE.  STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTRIBUTES TO THE DRY
AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS BUT ALSO BRINGS WARMER 850MB TEMPS
INTO THE REGION. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND
90 FOR MOST LOCATIONS.  ONSHORE WINDS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WILL
KEEP THE IMMEDIATE COAST A BIT COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S.

MONDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
START TO BUILD INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND
WITH DRIER NORTHWESTERLY WINDS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RADIATE OUT A
BIT MORE.  EXPECT LOWS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* VERY WARM ON TUESDAY EXCEPT COOLER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND COAST
* UNSEASONABLY HOT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
* A BIT COOLER FRI INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL
* MAINLY DRY OTHER THEN PERHAPS A SPOT SHOWER/STORM THU

DETAILS...

ALL MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER RIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.  THIS
MEANS ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER.  WE MAY SEE ENOUGH FORCING TO SPARK A FEW SPOT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SOMETIME THU INTO THU EVENING WITH A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT.  HOWEVER...ODDS ARE AGAINST ANY WIDESPREAD MEANINGFUL
RAINFALL GIVEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING...SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE SLIGHT
CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW.

THE EXCEPTION FROM THE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL BE TUESDAY
ACROSS COASTAL NEW ENGLAND...WHEN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT KEEPS HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S.  HOWEVER...THE LOWER CT
RIVER VALLEY SHOULD STILL SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S ON TUE AND ITS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOMEONE TOUCHES 90.

THE HOTTEST WEATHER LOOK TO BE WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO THURSDAY
WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 18C.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S AND LOWER 90S AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW LOCATIONS
HIT THE MIDDLE 90S.

ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL COOL TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES FRI
INTO SAT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.  HOWEVER...STILL
EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL RIGHT THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND GIVEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN CONTROL.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

VFR TODAY WITH CIGS AOA 060 AND BRIEF SPRINKLE POSSIBLE. LOCAL
MVFR/IFR VSBYS AGAIN LATER TONIGHT AND AGAIN MON NIGHT IN PATCHY
VALLEY FOG. VFR MON.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD OTHER THAN VERY LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.  A SPOT
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE THU/THU EVENING...BUT
ODDS ARE AGAINST ANYTHING WIDESPREAD.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS WILL KEEP WINDS
AND WAVES BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS
EXPECTED. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF 5 FOOT
SEAS ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  VISIBILITY SHOULD BE
GOOD AS WELL...SO NICE BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TUE AND AGAIN SOMETIME THU INTO FRI WILL SHIFT
WINDS TO THE EAST...BUT GUSTS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN 20
KNOTS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/FRANK
NEAR TERM...FRANK/RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...RLG/FRANK
MARINE...RLG/FRANK



000
FXUS61 KALY 302057
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
457 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THIS WEEK WILL BE HOT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS
THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. HIGHS MAINLY IN 80S ARE
EXPECTED MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH SOME 90S ANTICIPATED UP THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
HAVE SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MOST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE THE
DEW POINTS ARE IN THE MID/UPPER 60S AS A WEAKENING SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. FARTHER TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA WE HAVE HAD SOME WEAK ISOLATED SHOWERS. THE ACTIVITY WILL
DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE
TONIGHT AND WITH WINDS BECOMING CALM AND DEW POINTS INTO THE 60S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM ESPECIALLY IN
VALLEY LOCATIONS. LOWS TONIGHT ARE FORECAST A BIT WARMER THAN LAST
NIGHT...IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGING WILL BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT AND TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM. GUIDANCE INDICATES A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...HOWEVER MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED
AND THE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING EASTWARD.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY AROUND 10 DEGREES TO START THE
WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S MONDAY AND IN THE 80S
TUESDAY. DEW POINTS IN THE 60S WITH MAKE FOR HUMID/MUGGY CONDITIONS.

ALBANY`S LONGEST HEAT WAVE HAS OCCURRED DURING THIS TIME OF
YEAR...PLEASE REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR DETAILS AND FOR
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEK.

 &&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL LOOKS TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

H850 TEMPS LOOK TO AVERAGE BETWEEN +16C TO +18C THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
MOST OF THE TIME THE REGION WILL BE CAPPED SO EVEN WITH A SUFFICIENT
AMOUNT OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SURFACE INSTABILITY...IT WILL
BE DIFFICULT FOR CONVECTION TO BE REALIZED.

THE BIG STORY WILL BE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES...WHICH LOOK TO CREST
AROUND 90 IN THE VALLEYS EACH DAY...MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S. AT THIS
POINT...DEWPOINTS LOOK TO ALSO BE IN THE 60S WHICH WOULD KEEP
APPARENT TEMPERATURES (WHICH IS THE WHAT THE TEMPERATURE FEELS WHEN
COMBINED WITH HUMIDITY) BELOW 100 DEGREES.

WE HAVE KEPT MOST DAYS COMPLETELY DRY. THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS MIGHT BE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THURSDAY BOTH THE EUROPEAN (ECWMF) AND GFS
INDICATED A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT (OR JUST A SURFACE TROUGH) PASSING
THROUGH WHICH MIGHT BREAK THE CAP AND TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY...THE GFS INDICATED SOME CONVECTION POSSIBLY THE RESULT OF AN
EASTERLY FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. THIS
SCENARIO COULD ADD A LITTLE MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND PERHAPS
WORKING WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THE ECMWF DOES NOT INDICATE THIS FEATURE ON FRIDAY
AS IT BUILD THE HIGH CLOSER TO OUR REGION WITH REALLY NOT MUCH FLOW
AT ALL AND PRODUCING MORE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION.

NOW...WE DECIDED TO INCLUDE 20 POPS BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT AT
NO OTHER TIME FRAME.

THE SKY WILL RANGE FROM SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE
DAY...MAINLY CLEAR AT NIGHT. THERE COULD BE PATCHY VALLEY FOG BUT
DID NOT INCLUDE IT DURING THE EXTENDED AT THIS TIME.


&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL HOLD INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
HOWEVER...SUB-VFR FOG IS A GOOD BET OVERNIGHT INTO THE
MORNING PEAK.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON...THERE COULD BE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES BUT MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY. CIGS WILL
REMAIN MID LEVEL AND THE WIND LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

TONIGHT...CLOUDS WILL TEND TO DISSIPATE AFTER MIDNIGHT LEAVING
US THE LIKELIHOOD OF FOG FORMATION. FOR NOW...PLAN ON IFR MIST
(2SM) AT KGFL/KPSF AND KALB 08Z-12Z AND MVFR MIST (3SM) KPOU FROM
08Z-12Z.

CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS MODERATE BUT BEST TO CHECK IN
LATER OVERNIGHT OR FIRST THING TOMORROW SHOULD YOU PLAN TO FLY
EARLY MONDAY.

AFTER 12Z MONDAY...WE WILL BE LOOKING AT ANOTHER VFR FLYING DAY
WITH ONLY FEW-SCT CU BASES (ABOVE 5000 KFT) AND LIGHT WIND BECOME
WEST AROUND 5-10KTS (MORE SW) AT KGFL.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
TUE: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECT FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

MOST OF THE REGION HAS NOT SEEN SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN OVER A
WEEK. THIS HAD LED TO THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX APPROACHING
300 IN OUR SOUTHERN MOST COUNTIES...AND LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO RISE
OVER THE DAYS TO COME.

WINDS DURING THE NEXT WEEK LOOK TO REMAIN CALM AT NIGHT AND
LIGHT DURING THE DAY...GENERALLY UNDER 10 MPH.

A FULL OR NEARLY FULL RECOVERY IS EXPECTED EACH OF THE NEXT
SEVERAL NIGHTS ALLOWING FOR THE FORMATION OF DEW.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE
MODERATE RANGE...40 TO 60 PERCENT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED AUGUST 27
THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST 29, 30
AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY.
DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...IAA



000
FXUS61 KALY 302057
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
457 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THIS WEEK WILL BE HOT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS
THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. HIGHS MAINLY IN 80S ARE
EXPECTED MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH SOME 90S ANTICIPATED UP THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
HAVE SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MOST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE THE
DEW POINTS ARE IN THE MID/UPPER 60S AS A WEAKENING SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. FARTHER TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA WE HAVE HAD SOME WEAK ISOLATED SHOWERS. THE ACTIVITY WILL
DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE
TONIGHT AND WITH WINDS BECOMING CALM AND DEW POINTS INTO THE 60S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM ESPECIALLY IN
VALLEY LOCATIONS. LOWS TONIGHT ARE FORECAST A BIT WARMER THAN LAST
NIGHT...IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGING WILL BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT AND TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM. GUIDANCE INDICATES A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...HOWEVER MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED
AND THE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING EASTWARD.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY AROUND 10 DEGREES TO START THE
WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S MONDAY AND IN THE 80S
TUESDAY. DEW POINTS IN THE 60S WITH MAKE FOR HUMID/MUGGY CONDITIONS.

ALBANY`S LONGEST HEAT WAVE HAS OCCURRED DURING THIS TIME OF
YEAR...PLEASE REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR DETAILS AND FOR
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEK.

 &&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL LOOKS TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

H850 TEMPS LOOK TO AVERAGE BETWEEN +16C TO +18C THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
MOST OF THE TIME THE REGION WILL BE CAPPED SO EVEN WITH A SUFFICIENT
AMOUNT OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SURFACE INSTABILITY...IT WILL
BE DIFFICULT FOR CONVECTION TO BE REALIZED.

THE BIG STORY WILL BE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES...WHICH LOOK TO CREST
AROUND 90 IN THE VALLEYS EACH DAY...MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S. AT THIS
POINT...DEWPOINTS LOOK TO ALSO BE IN THE 60S WHICH WOULD KEEP
APPARENT TEMPERATURES (WHICH IS THE WHAT THE TEMPERATURE FEELS WHEN
COMBINED WITH HUMIDITY) BELOW 100 DEGREES.

WE HAVE KEPT MOST DAYS COMPLETELY DRY. THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS MIGHT BE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THURSDAY BOTH THE EUROPEAN (ECWMF) AND GFS
INDICATED A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT (OR JUST A SURFACE TROUGH) PASSING
THROUGH WHICH MIGHT BREAK THE CAP AND TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY...THE GFS INDICATED SOME CONVECTION POSSIBLY THE RESULT OF AN
EASTERLY FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. THIS
SCENARIO COULD ADD A LITTLE MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND PERHAPS
WORKING WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THE ECMWF DOES NOT INDICATE THIS FEATURE ON FRIDAY
AS IT BUILD THE HIGH CLOSER TO OUR REGION WITH REALLY NOT MUCH FLOW
AT ALL AND PRODUCING MORE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION.

NOW...WE DECIDED TO INCLUDE 20 POPS BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT AT
NO OTHER TIME FRAME.

THE SKY WILL RANGE FROM SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE
DAY...MAINLY CLEAR AT NIGHT. THERE COULD BE PATCHY VALLEY FOG BUT
DID NOT INCLUDE IT DURING THE EXTENDED AT THIS TIME.


&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL HOLD INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
HOWEVER...SUB-VFR FOG IS A GOOD BET OVERNIGHT INTO THE
MORNING PEAK.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON...THERE COULD BE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES BUT MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY. CIGS WILL
REMAIN MID LEVEL AND THE WIND LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

TONIGHT...CLOUDS WILL TEND TO DISSIPATE AFTER MIDNIGHT LEAVING
US THE LIKELIHOOD OF FOG FORMATION. FOR NOW...PLAN ON IFR MIST
(2SM) AT KGFL/KPSF AND KALB 08Z-12Z AND MVFR MIST (3SM) KPOU FROM
08Z-12Z.

CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS MODERATE BUT BEST TO CHECK IN
LATER OVERNIGHT OR FIRST THING TOMORROW SHOULD YOU PLAN TO FLY
EARLY MONDAY.

AFTER 12Z MONDAY...WE WILL BE LOOKING AT ANOTHER VFR FLYING DAY
WITH ONLY FEW-SCT CU BASES (ABOVE 5000 KFT) AND LIGHT WIND BECOME
WEST AROUND 5-10KTS (MORE SW) AT KGFL.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
TUE: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECT FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

MOST OF THE REGION HAS NOT SEEN SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN OVER A
WEEK. THIS HAD LED TO THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX APPROACHING
300 IN OUR SOUTHERN MOST COUNTIES...AND LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO RISE
OVER THE DAYS TO COME.

WINDS DURING THE NEXT WEEK LOOK TO REMAIN CALM AT NIGHT AND
LIGHT DURING THE DAY...GENERALLY UNDER 10 MPH.

A FULL OR NEARLY FULL RECOVERY IS EXPECTED EACH OF THE NEXT
SEVERAL NIGHTS ALLOWING FOR THE FORMATION OF DEW.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE
MODERATE RANGE...40 TO 60 PERCENT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED AUGUST 27
THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST 29, 30
AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY.
DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...IAA



000
FXUS61 KALY 302057
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
457 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THIS WEEK WILL BE HOT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS
THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. HIGHS MAINLY IN 80S ARE
EXPECTED MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH SOME 90S ANTICIPATED UP THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
HAVE SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MOST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE THE
DEW POINTS ARE IN THE MID/UPPER 60S AS A WEAKENING SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. FARTHER TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA WE HAVE HAD SOME WEAK ISOLATED SHOWERS. THE ACTIVITY WILL
DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE
TONIGHT AND WITH WINDS BECOMING CALM AND DEW POINTS INTO THE 60S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM ESPECIALLY IN
VALLEY LOCATIONS. LOWS TONIGHT ARE FORECAST A BIT WARMER THAN LAST
NIGHT...IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGING WILL BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT AND TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM. GUIDANCE INDICATES A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...HOWEVER MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED
AND THE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING EASTWARD.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY AROUND 10 DEGREES TO START THE
WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S MONDAY AND IN THE 80S
TUESDAY. DEW POINTS IN THE 60S WITH MAKE FOR HUMID/MUGGY CONDITIONS.

ALBANY`S LONGEST HEAT WAVE HAS OCCURRED DURING THIS TIME OF
YEAR...PLEASE REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR DETAILS AND FOR
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEK.

 &&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL LOOKS TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

H850 TEMPS LOOK TO AVERAGE BETWEEN +16C TO +18C THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
MOST OF THE TIME THE REGION WILL BE CAPPED SO EVEN WITH A SUFFICIENT
AMOUNT OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SURFACE INSTABILITY...IT WILL
BE DIFFICULT FOR CONVECTION TO BE REALIZED.

THE BIG STORY WILL BE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES...WHICH LOOK TO CREST
AROUND 90 IN THE VALLEYS EACH DAY...MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S. AT THIS
POINT...DEWPOINTS LOOK TO ALSO BE IN THE 60S WHICH WOULD KEEP
APPARENT TEMPERATURES (WHICH IS THE WHAT THE TEMPERATURE FEELS WHEN
COMBINED WITH HUMIDITY) BELOW 100 DEGREES.

WE HAVE KEPT MOST DAYS COMPLETELY DRY. THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS MIGHT BE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THURSDAY BOTH THE EUROPEAN (ECWMF) AND GFS
INDICATED A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT (OR JUST A SURFACE TROUGH) PASSING
THROUGH WHICH MIGHT BREAK THE CAP AND TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY...THE GFS INDICATED SOME CONVECTION POSSIBLY THE RESULT OF AN
EASTERLY FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. THIS
SCENARIO COULD ADD A LITTLE MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND PERHAPS
WORKING WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THE ECMWF DOES NOT INDICATE THIS FEATURE ON FRIDAY
AS IT BUILD THE HIGH CLOSER TO OUR REGION WITH REALLY NOT MUCH FLOW
AT ALL AND PRODUCING MORE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION.

NOW...WE DECIDED TO INCLUDE 20 POPS BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT AT
NO OTHER TIME FRAME.

THE SKY WILL RANGE FROM SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE
DAY...MAINLY CLEAR AT NIGHT. THERE COULD BE PATCHY VALLEY FOG BUT
DID NOT INCLUDE IT DURING THE EXTENDED AT THIS TIME.


&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL HOLD INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
HOWEVER...SUB-VFR FOG IS A GOOD BET OVERNIGHT INTO THE
MORNING PEAK.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON...THERE COULD BE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES BUT MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY. CIGS WILL
REMAIN MID LEVEL AND THE WIND LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

TONIGHT...CLOUDS WILL TEND TO DISSIPATE AFTER MIDNIGHT LEAVING
US THE LIKELIHOOD OF FOG FORMATION. FOR NOW...PLAN ON IFR MIST
(2SM) AT KGFL/KPSF AND KALB 08Z-12Z AND MVFR MIST (3SM) KPOU FROM
08Z-12Z.

CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS MODERATE BUT BEST TO CHECK IN
LATER OVERNIGHT OR FIRST THING TOMORROW SHOULD YOU PLAN TO FLY
EARLY MONDAY.

AFTER 12Z MONDAY...WE WILL BE LOOKING AT ANOTHER VFR FLYING DAY
WITH ONLY FEW-SCT CU BASES (ABOVE 5000 KFT) AND LIGHT WIND BECOME
WEST AROUND 5-10KTS (MORE SW) AT KGFL.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
TUE: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECT FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

MOST OF THE REGION HAS NOT SEEN SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN OVER A
WEEK. THIS HAD LED TO THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX APPROACHING
300 IN OUR SOUTHERN MOST COUNTIES...AND LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO RISE
OVER THE DAYS TO COME.

WINDS DURING THE NEXT WEEK LOOK TO REMAIN CALM AT NIGHT AND
LIGHT DURING THE DAY...GENERALLY UNDER 10 MPH.

A FULL OR NEARLY FULL RECOVERY IS EXPECTED EACH OF THE NEXT
SEVERAL NIGHTS ALLOWING FOR THE FORMATION OF DEW.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE
MODERATE RANGE...40 TO 60 PERCENT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED AUGUST 27
THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST 29, 30
AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY.
DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...IAA



000
FXUS61 KALY 302057
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
457 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THIS WEEK WILL BE HOT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS
THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. HIGHS MAINLY IN 80S ARE
EXPECTED MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH SOME 90S ANTICIPATED UP THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
HAVE SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MOST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE THE
DEW POINTS ARE IN THE MID/UPPER 60S AS A WEAKENING SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. FARTHER TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA WE HAVE HAD SOME WEAK ISOLATED SHOWERS. THE ACTIVITY WILL
DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE
TONIGHT AND WITH WINDS BECOMING CALM AND DEW POINTS INTO THE 60S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM ESPECIALLY IN
VALLEY LOCATIONS. LOWS TONIGHT ARE FORECAST A BIT WARMER THAN LAST
NIGHT...IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGING WILL BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT AND TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM. GUIDANCE INDICATES A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...HOWEVER MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED
AND THE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING EASTWARD.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY AROUND 10 DEGREES TO START THE
WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S MONDAY AND IN THE 80S
TUESDAY. DEW POINTS IN THE 60S WITH MAKE FOR HUMID/MUGGY CONDITIONS.

ALBANY`S LONGEST HEAT WAVE HAS OCCURRED DURING THIS TIME OF
YEAR...PLEASE REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR DETAILS AND FOR
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEK.

 &&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL LOOKS TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

H850 TEMPS LOOK TO AVERAGE BETWEEN +16C TO +18C THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
MOST OF THE TIME THE REGION WILL BE CAPPED SO EVEN WITH A SUFFICIENT
AMOUNT OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SURFACE INSTABILITY...IT WILL
BE DIFFICULT FOR CONVECTION TO BE REALIZED.

THE BIG STORY WILL BE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES...WHICH LOOK TO CREST
AROUND 90 IN THE VALLEYS EACH DAY...MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S. AT THIS
POINT...DEWPOINTS LOOK TO ALSO BE IN THE 60S WHICH WOULD KEEP
APPARENT TEMPERATURES (WHICH IS THE WHAT THE TEMPERATURE FEELS WHEN
COMBINED WITH HUMIDITY) BELOW 100 DEGREES.

WE HAVE KEPT MOST DAYS COMPLETELY DRY. THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS MIGHT BE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THURSDAY BOTH THE EUROPEAN (ECWMF) AND GFS
INDICATED A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT (OR JUST A SURFACE TROUGH) PASSING
THROUGH WHICH MIGHT BREAK THE CAP AND TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY...THE GFS INDICATED SOME CONVECTION POSSIBLY THE RESULT OF AN
EASTERLY FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. THIS
SCENARIO COULD ADD A LITTLE MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND PERHAPS
WORKING WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THE ECMWF DOES NOT INDICATE THIS FEATURE ON FRIDAY
AS IT BUILD THE HIGH CLOSER TO OUR REGION WITH REALLY NOT MUCH FLOW
AT ALL AND PRODUCING MORE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION.

NOW...WE DECIDED TO INCLUDE 20 POPS BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT AT
NO OTHER TIME FRAME.

THE SKY WILL RANGE FROM SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE
DAY...MAINLY CLEAR AT NIGHT. THERE COULD BE PATCHY VALLEY FOG BUT
DID NOT INCLUDE IT DURING THE EXTENDED AT THIS TIME.


&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL HOLD INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
HOWEVER...SUB-VFR FOG IS A GOOD BET OVERNIGHT INTO THE
MORNING PEAK.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON...THERE COULD BE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES BUT MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY. CIGS WILL
REMAIN MID LEVEL AND THE WIND LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

TONIGHT...CLOUDS WILL TEND TO DISSIPATE AFTER MIDNIGHT LEAVING
US THE LIKELIHOOD OF FOG FORMATION. FOR NOW...PLAN ON IFR MIST
(2SM) AT KGFL/KPSF AND KALB 08Z-12Z AND MVFR MIST (3SM) KPOU FROM
08Z-12Z.

CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS MODERATE BUT BEST TO CHECK IN
LATER OVERNIGHT OR FIRST THING TOMORROW SHOULD YOU PLAN TO FLY
EARLY MONDAY.

AFTER 12Z MONDAY...WE WILL BE LOOKING AT ANOTHER VFR FLYING DAY
WITH ONLY FEW-SCT CU BASES (ABOVE 5000 KFT) AND LIGHT WIND BECOME
WEST AROUND 5-10KTS (MORE SW) AT KGFL.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
TUE: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECT FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

MOST OF THE REGION HAS NOT SEEN SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN OVER A
WEEK. THIS HAD LED TO THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX APPROACHING
300 IN OUR SOUTHERN MOST COUNTIES...AND LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO RISE
OVER THE DAYS TO COME.

WINDS DURING THE NEXT WEEK LOOK TO REMAIN CALM AT NIGHT AND
LIGHT DURING THE DAY...GENERALLY UNDER 10 MPH.

A FULL OR NEARLY FULL RECOVERY IS EXPECTED EACH OF THE NEXT
SEVERAL NIGHTS ALLOWING FOR THE FORMATION OF DEW.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE
MODERATE RANGE...40 TO 60 PERCENT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED AUGUST 27
THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST 29, 30
AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY.
DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...IAA



000
FXUS61 KOKX 301959
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
359 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND MOVE SOUTH
OF LONG ISLAND MONDAY. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS LATE
MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT IT WILL STILL BE WARM AND MAINLY
DRY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
IN THE MID LEVELS...A SPLIT FOR OUR REGION WITH A WEAK HEIGHT
GRADIENT. A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED HIGHER PVA MOVE MOSTLY SOUTH OF
THE REGION AND ANOTHER STRONGER ONE MOVES WITHIN SOUTHEAST CANADA.
AT THE SURFACE...THERE WILL BE A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVING TOWARDS
THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP AN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS OVERHEAD FOR THE
NIGHT. THE LOWS WERE TAKEN FROM THE RELATIVELY WARMER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE OF THE MAV MOS...WITH VALUES EXPECTED TO BE WARMER THAN THE
PREVIOUS NIGHT WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW.

COOLING TEMPERATURES WITH COVERAGE OF ANY CONVECTION REMAINING
DECREASING INTO THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL
STILL BE SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE WITH SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY AHEAD OF
THE SURFACE TROUGH. WITH THESE AFOREMENTIONED FACTORS...THERE WILL
BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR TONIGHT
ACROSS ALL LOCATIONS.

THERE IS A CONTINUED MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP
CURRENTS INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHORTWAVE WEAKENS SOUTH OF THE REGION MONDAY. A HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGE FROM THE WEST WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN. HOWEVER...AT THE
SURFACE...THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN AND THE DAYTIME SHOULD ENHANCE IT
WITH THE SEA BREEZE GIVING SOME INCREASE IN THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
WITHIN THE REGION ACROSS THE COAST. THE COOLER TEMPS WILL BE
ADVECTED INTO THE REGION FROM THE MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS WILL
CONVERGE AGAINST PLACES THAT HAVE SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE POPS OVERALL
WILL NOT BE HIGH...JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CLOSE TO THE COAST...BUT WITH THE AIRMASS BECOMING INCREASINGLY WARM
AND HUMID...INSTABILITY WILL BE LARGER AS CAPE INCREASES TO
APPROXIMATELY 500-1000 J/KG. INLAND...DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL. AN OVERALL VERY WARM DAY EXPECTED. A MAV/MET BLEND WAS USED
FOR HIGHS...YIELDING VALUES FROM THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS A
MAJORITY OF THE REGION.

ONCE THE HEATING WANES DOWN FOR MONDAY EVENING...THE ENVIRONMENT
WILL BECOME MORE STABLE AND THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE FROM THE WEST
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL HAVE PUSHED SOUTH
OF LONG ISLAND. THERE WILL BE A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS LATE. OVERALL...THE GREATER INFLUENCE WILL BE FROM THE
RIDGE AND THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGING WILL LEAD TO LESSENING
CLOUDS. HOWEVER...DESPITE LIGHT WINDS...LOWS WILL NOT CHANGE TOO
MUCH COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS NIGHT. THE RELATIVELY WARM AND
HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN THOUGH AS WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASES
AT THE 850MB LEVEL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MAIN THEME OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE CONTINUATION OF
HEAT AND HUMIDITY ACROSS THE REGION.

MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE H5 PATTERN ACROSS NOAM
THROUGH THE PERIOD. A LATE SEASON HEAT WAVE IS EXPECTED FOR PARTS OF
THE TRI-STATE AREA THIS WEEK AS A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE ENCOMPASSES THE
EASTERN US. A SLY FLOW FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK WILL KEEP HUMIDITY
LEVELS HIGH AS WELL. THE HOTTEST DAY...HEAT AND HUMIDITY COMBINED
LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY WITH MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT. NOT EXPECTING HEAT ADVSY CRITERIA TO BE MET...ALTHOUGH HEAT
INDICES WILL RANGE BETWEEN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH WED WITH 90 TO 95 ON THU. ALTHOUGH PARTS OF NYC MAY REACH A
95 DEGREE HEAT INDEX THU...NOT EXPECTING IT FOR 2 CONSECUTIVE
DAYS. THEREFORE...NO ADVSY IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE CITY EITHER.

IT WILL BE A FAIRLY DRY WEEK WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH THE
WEAK BOUNDARY THU/THU EVE AND AGAIN FRI/FRI EVE AS ANOTHER WEAK
BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE N...THIS TIME WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE
ENERGY. THE FLOW BECOMES ELY FRI...BUT THE COMBINATION OF THE UPPER
ENERGY...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND THE OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCE COULD
TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS.

THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO PROVIDE SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT
ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST FRI THROUGH SUN. TEMPS WILL STILL BE 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THOUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE TRI-STATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN STALL OUT SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND INTO
MONDAY.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SEABREEZES THROUGH ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KSWF AND KHPN. ISOLATED
GUSTS TO AROUND 15-20 KT POSSIBLE AT NYC METRO TERMINALS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AS WELL.

WINDS BECOME SW AT UNDER 10 KT AT CITY TERMINALS TONIGHT AND LIGHT
AND VARIABLE ELSEWHERE. WSW-WNW WINDS AT AROUND 10 KT DEVELOP BY
LATE MONDAY MORNING- EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS COULD
INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KT AT KJFK TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD.

AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. HAVE INCLUDED A
VCSH AT KSWF AND KHPN TO REFLECT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.MONDAY AFTERNOON...VFR. WSW-W WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR. AFTERNOON SEABREEZES PROBABLE
EACH AFTERNOON.
.THURSDAY...MOST LIKELY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. AFTERNOON SEABREEZES PROBABLE.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.FRIDAY...MOST LIKELY VFR. E WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE. ISOLATED-
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
INTO THIS EVENING...AMBROSE JET WILL HAVE SOME OCCASIONAL 25KT GUSTS
ACROSS THE WESTERN OCEAN WATERS. HOWEVER...THIS WILL NOT BE
SPATIALLY OR TEMPORALLY ENOUGH TO HAVE A SCA. THE REST OF THE SHORT
TERM THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE A PRIMARILY WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT. THE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY LESS THAN 15 KT OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH. THERE COULD BE ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTS MONDAY
AFTERNOON BUT THESE ARE EXPECTED TO BE UP TO 20 KT. SEAS ON THE
OCEAN MAY GET TO 5 FT MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH THE WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT...DID NOT THINK WINDS WOULD SUPPLY A STRONG ENOUGH FETCH TO
INCREASE SEAS TO 5 FT. THEREFORE CAPPED THE OCEAN SEAS AT 4 FT
MONDAY NIGHT.

SUB-ADVSY CONDS ARE EXPECTED ON ALL WATERS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THROUGH MONDAY COULD RESULT IN A BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOUR...WITH PERHAPS A QUICK QUARTER OF AN INCH IN
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THERE COULD BE SOME LOCALLY MINOR FLOODING BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW WITH COVERAGE OF CONVECTION FORECAST
BEING LOW.

OVERALL...NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A RECENT FULL MOON...BRIEF MINOR INUNDATION IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE ACROSS THE TYPICALLY VULNERABLE
COASTAL LOCALES INTO THE START OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JM
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...24/JM
HYDROLOGY...24/JM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KOKX 301959
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
359 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND MOVE SOUTH
OF LONG ISLAND MONDAY. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS LATE
MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT IT WILL STILL BE WARM AND MAINLY
DRY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
IN THE MID LEVELS...A SPLIT FOR OUR REGION WITH A WEAK HEIGHT
GRADIENT. A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED HIGHER PVA MOVE MOSTLY SOUTH OF
THE REGION AND ANOTHER STRONGER ONE MOVES WITHIN SOUTHEAST CANADA.
AT THE SURFACE...THERE WILL BE A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVING TOWARDS
THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP AN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS OVERHEAD FOR THE
NIGHT. THE LOWS WERE TAKEN FROM THE RELATIVELY WARMER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE OF THE MAV MOS...WITH VALUES EXPECTED TO BE WARMER THAN THE
PREVIOUS NIGHT WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW.

COOLING TEMPERATURES WITH COVERAGE OF ANY CONVECTION REMAINING
DECREASING INTO THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL
STILL BE SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE WITH SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY AHEAD OF
THE SURFACE TROUGH. WITH THESE AFOREMENTIONED FACTORS...THERE WILL
BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR TONIGHT
ACROSS ALL LOCATIONS.

THERE IS A CONTINUED MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP
CURRENTS INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHORTWAVE WEAKENS SOUTH OF THE REGION MONDAY. A HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGE FROM THE WEST WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN. HOWEVER...AT THE
SURFACE...THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN AND THE DAYTIME SHOULD ENHANCE IT
WITH THE SEA BREEZE GIVING SOME INCREASE IN THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
WITHIN THE REGION ACROSS THE COAST. THE COOLER TEMPS WILL BE
ADVECTED INTO THE REGION FROM THE MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS WILL
CONVERGE AGAINST PLACES THAT HAVE SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE POPS OVERALL
WILL NOT BE HIGH...JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CLOSE TO THE COAST...BUT WITH THE AIRMASS BECOMING INCREASINGLY WARM
AND HUMID...INSTABILITY WILL BE LARGER AS CAPE INCREASES TO
APPROXIMATELY 500-1000 J/KG. INLAND...DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL. AN OVERALL VERY WARM DAY EXPECTED. A MAV/MET BLEND WAS USED
FOR HIGHS...YIELDING VALUES FROM THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS A
MAJORITY OF THE REGION.

ONCE THE HEATING WANES DOWN FOR MONDAY EVENING...THE ENVIRONMENT
WILL BECOME MORE STABLE AND THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE FROM THE WEST
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL HAVE PUSHED SOUTH
OF LONG ISLAND. THERE WILL BE A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS LATE. OVERALL...THE GREATER INFLUENCE WILL BE FROM THE
RIDGE AND THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGING WILL LEAD TO LESSENING
CLOUDS. HOWEVER...DESPITE LIGHT WINDS...LOWS WILL NOT CHANGE TOO
MUCH COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS NIGHT. THE RELATIVELY WARM AND
HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN THOUGH AS WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASES
AT THE 850MB LEVEL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MAIN THEME OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE CONTINUATION OF
HEAT AND HUMIDITY ACROSS THE REGION.

MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE H5 PATTERN ACROSS NOAM
THROUGH THE PERIOD. A LATE SEASON HEAT WAVE IS EXPECTED FOR PARTS OF
THE TRI-STATE AREA THIS WEEK AS A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE ENCOMPASSES THE
EASTERN US. A SLY FLOW FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK WILL KEEP HUMIDITY
LEVELS HIGH AS WELL. THE HOTTEST DAY...HEAT AND HUMIDITY COMBINED
LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY WITH MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT. NOT EXPECTING HEAT ADVSY CRITERIA TO BE MET...ALTHOUGH HEAT
INDICES WILL RANGE BETWEEN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH WED WITH 90 TO 95 ON THU. ALTHOUGH PARTS OF NYC MAY REACH A
95 DEGREE HEAT INDEX THU...NOT EXPECTING IT FOR 2 CONSECUTIVE
DAYS. THEREFORE...NO ADVSY IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE CITY EITHER.

IT WILL BE A FAIRLY DRY WEEK WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH THE
WEAK BOUNDARY THU/THU EVE AND AGAIN FRI/FRI EVE AS ANOTHER WEAK
BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE N...THIS TIME WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE
ENERGY. THE FLOW BECOMES ELY FRI...BUT THE COMBINATION OF THE UPPER
ENERGY...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND THE OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCE COULD
TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS.

THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO PROVIDE SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT
ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST FRI THROUGH SUN. TEMPS WILL STILL BE 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THOUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE TRI-STATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN STALL OUT SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND INTO
MONDAY.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SEABREEZES THROUGH ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KSWF AND KHPN. ISOLATED
GUSTS TO AROUND 15-20 KT POSSIBLE AT NYC METRO TERMINALS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AS WELL.

WINDS BECOME SW AT UNDER 10 KT AT CITY TERMINALS TONIGHT AND LIGHT
AND VARIABLE ELSEWHERE. WSW-WNW WINDS AT AROUND 10 KT DEVELOP BY
LATE MONDAY MORNING- EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS COULD
INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KT AT KJFK TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD.

AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. HAVE INCLUDED A
VCSH AT KSWF AND KHPN TO REFLECT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.MONDAY AFTERNOON...VFR. WSW-W WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR. AFTERNOON SEABREEZES PROBABLE
EACH AFTERNOON.
.THURSDAY...MOST LIKELY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. AFTERNOON SEABREEZES PROBABLE.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.FRIDAY...MOST LIKELY VFR. E WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE. ISOLATED-
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
INTO THIS EVENING...AMBROSE JET WILL HAVE SOME OCCASIONAL 25KT GUSTS
ACROSS THE WESTERN OCEAN WATERS. HOWEVER...THIS WILL NOT BE
SPATIALLY OR TEMPORALLY ENOUGH TO HAVE A SCA. THE REST OF THE SHORT
TERM THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE A PRIMARILY WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT. THE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY LESS THAN 15 KT OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH. THERE COULD BE ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTS MONDAY
AFTERNOON BUT THESE ARE EXPECTED TO BE UP TO 20 KT. SEAS ON THE
OCEAN MAY GET TO 5 FT MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH THE WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT...DID NOT THINK WINDS WOULD SUPPLY A STRONG ENOUGH FETCH TO
INCREASE SEAS TO 5 FT. THEREFORE CAPPED THE OCEAN SEAS AT 4 FT
MONDAY NIGHT.

SUB-ADVSY CONDS ARE EXPECTED ON ALL WATERS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THROUGH MONDAY COULD RESULT IN A BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOUR...WITH PERHAPS A QUICK QUARTER OF AN INCH IN
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THERE COULD BE SOME LOCALLY MINOR FLOODING BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW WITH COVERAGE OF CONVECTION FORECAST
BEING LOW.

OVERALL...NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A RECENT FULL MOON...BRIEF MINOR INUNDATION IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE ACROSS THE TYPICALLY VULNERABLE
COASTAL LOCALES INTO THE START OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JM
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...24/JM
HYDROLOGY...24/JM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KOKX 301959
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
359 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND MOVE SOUTH
OF LONG ISLAND MONDAY. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS LATE
MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT IT WILL STILL BE WARM AND MAINLY
DRY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
IN THE MID LEVELS...A SPLIT FOR OUR REGION WITH A WEAK HEIGHT
GRADIENT. A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED HIGHER PVA MOVE MOSTLY SOUTH OF
THE REGION AND ANOTHER STRONGER ONE MOVES WITHIN SOUTHEAST CANADA.
AT THE SURFACE...THERE WILL BE A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVING TOWARDS
THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP AN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS OVERHEAD FOR THE
NIGHT. THE LOWS WERE TAKEN FROM THE RELATIVELY WARMER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE OF THE MAV MOS...WITH VALUES EXPECTED TO BE WARMER THAN THE
PREVIOUS NIGHT WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW.

COOLING TEMPERATURES WITH COVERAGE OF ANY CONVECTION REMAINING
DECREASING INTO THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL
STILL BE SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE WITH SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY AHEAD OF
THE SURFACE TROUGH. WITH THESE AFOREMENTIONED FACTORS...THERE WILL
BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR TONIGHT
ACROSS ALL LOCATIONS.

THERE IS A CONTINUED MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP
CURRENTS INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHORTWAVE WEAKENS SOUTH OF THE REGION MONDAY. A HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGE FROM THE WEST WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN. HOWEVER...AT THE
SURFACE...THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN AND THE DAYTIME SHOULD ENHANCE IT
WITH THE SEA BREEZE GIVING SOME INCREASE IN THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
WITHIN THE REGION ACROSS THE COAST. THE COOLER TEMPS WILL BE
ADVECTED INTO THE REGION FROM THE MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS WILL
CONVERGE AGAINST PLACES THAT HAVE SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE POPS OVERALL
WILL NOT BE HIGH...JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CLOSE TO THE COAST...BUT WITH THE AIRMASS BECOMING INCREASINGLY WARM
AND HUMID...INSTABILITY WILL BE LARGER AS CAPE INCREASES TO
APPROXIMATELY 500-1000 J/KG. INLAND...DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL. AN OVERALL VERY WARM DAY EXPECTED. A MAV/MET BLEND WAS USED
FOR HIGHS...YIELDING VALUES FROM THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS A
MAJORITY OF THE REGION.

ONCE THE HEATING WANES DOWN FOR MONDAY EVENING...THE ENVIRONMENT
WILL BECOME MORE STABLE AND THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE FROM THE WEST
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL HAVE PUSHED SOUTH
OF LONG ISLAND. THERE WILL BE A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS LATE. OVERALL...THE GREATER INFLUENCE WILL BE FROM THE
RIDGE AND THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGING WILL LEAD TO LESSENING
CLOUDS. HOWEVER...DESPITE LIGHT WINDS...LOWS WILL NOT CHANGE TOO
MUCH COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS NIGHT. THE RELATIVELY WARM AND
HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN THOUGH AS WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASES
AT THE 850MB LEVEL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MAIN THEME OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE CONTINUATION OF
HEAT AND HUMIDITY ACROSS THE REGION.

MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE H5 PATTERN ACROSS NOAM
THROUGH THE PERIOD. A LATE SEASON HEAT WAVE IS EXPECTED FOR PARTS OF
THE TRI-STATE AREA THIS WEEK AS A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE ENCOMPASSES THE
EASTERN US. A SLY FLOW FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK WILL KEEP HUMIDITY
LEVELS HIGH AS WELL. THE HOTTEST DAY...HEAT AND HUMIDITY COMBINED
LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY WITH MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT. NOT EXPECTING HEAT ADVSY CRITERIA TO BE MET...ALTHOUGH HEAT
INDICES WILL RANGE BETWEEN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH WED WITH 90 TO 95 ON THU. ALTHOUGH PARTS OF NYC MAY REACH A
95 DEGREE HEAT INDEX THU...NOT EXPECTING IT FOR 2 CONSECUTIVE
DAYS. THEREFORE...NO ADVSY IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE CITY EITHER.

IT WILL BE A FAIRLY DRY WEEK WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH THE
WEAK BOUNDARY THU/THU EVE AND AGAIN FRI/FRI EVE AS ANOTHER WEAK
BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE N...THIS TIME WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE
ENERGY. THE FLOW BECOMES ELY FRI...BUT THE COMBINATION OF THE UPPER
ENERGY...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND THE OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCE COULD
TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS.

THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO PROVIDE SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT
ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST FRI THROUGH SUN. TEMPS WILL STILL BE 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THOUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE TRI-STATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN STALL OUT SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND INTO
MONDAY.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SEABREEZES THROUGH ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KSWF AND KHPN. ISOLATED
GUSTS TO AROUND 15-20 KT POSSIBLE AT NYC METRO TERMINALS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AS WELL.

WINDS BECOME SW AT UNDER 10 KT AT CITY TERMINALS TONIGHT AND LIGHT
AND VARIABLE ELSEWHERE. WSW-WNW WINDS AT AROUND 10 KT DEVELOP BY
LATE MONDAY MORNING- EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS COULD
INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KT AT KJFK TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD.

AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. HAVE INCLUDED A
VCSH AT KSWF AND KHPN TO REFLECT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.MONDAY AFTERNOON...VFR. WSW-W WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR. AFTERNOON SEABREEZES PROBABLE
EACH AFTERNOON.
.THURSDAY...MOST LIKELY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. AFTERNOON SEABREEZES PROBABLE.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.FRIDAY...MOST LIKELY VFR. E WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE. ISOLATED-
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
INTO THIS EVENING...AMBROSE JET WILL HAVE SOME OCCASIONAL 25KT GUSTS
ACROSS THE WESTERN OCEAN WATERS. HOWEVER...THIS WILL NOT BE
SPATIALLY OR TEMPORALLY ENOUGH TO HAVE A SCA. THE REST OF THE SHORT
TERM THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE A PRIMARILY WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT. THE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY LESS THAN 15 KT OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH. THERE COULD BE ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTS MONDAY
AFTERNOON BUT THESE ARE EXPECTED TO BE UP TO 20 KT. SEAS ON THE
OCEAN MAY GET TO 5 FT MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH THE WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT...DID NOT THINK WINDS WOULD SUPPLY A STRONG ENOUGH FETCH TO
INCREASE SEAS TO 5 FT. THEREFORE CAPPED THE OCEAN SEAS AT 4 FT
MONDAY NIGHT.

SUB-ADVSY CONDS ARE EXPECTED ON ALL WATERS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THROUGH MONDAY COULD RESULT IN A BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOUR...WITH PERHAPS A QUICK QUARTER OF AN INCH IN
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THERE COULD BE SOME LOCALLY MINOR FLOODING BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW WITH COVERAGE OF CONVECTION FORECAST
BEING LOW.

OVERALL...NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A RECENT FULL MOON...BRIEF MINOR INUNDATION IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE ACROSS THE TYPICALLY VULNERABLE
COASTAL LOCALES INTO THE START OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JM
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...24/JM
HYDROLOGY...24/JM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KBOX 301935
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
335 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO DRY WEATHER WITH A
WARMING TREND THROUGH MONDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BRING
COOLER WEATHER TUESDAY BUT MAINLY JUST TO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND...
BEFORE UNSEASONABLY HOT WEATHER RETURNS TO MOST OF THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING
SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER FRIDAY INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER
CONTINUING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THEN SHOWERS SHOULD
DISSIPATE AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT.  ENOUGH
MOISTURE REMAINS FOR MID CLOUDS TO STICK AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. THIS MEANS A MILD NIGHT IN STORE WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO
AROUND 70.  PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP AGAIN IN THE USUAL LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM QUEBEC INTO THE MARITIMES WILL
BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH MAINE AND INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND.  STILL SEEING QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR ACROSS THE REGION
SO AM NOT EXPECTING ANY RAIN AND EVEN A FEW DIURNAL CLOUDS SEEM TO
STRUGGLE.  STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTRIBUTES TO THE DRY
AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS BUT ALSO BRINGS WARMER 850MB TEMPS
INTO THE REGION. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND
90 FOR MOST LOCATIONS.  ONSHORE WINDS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WILL
KEEP THE IMMEDIATE COAST A BIT COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S.

MONDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
START TO BUILD INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND
WITH DRIER NORTHWESTERLY WINDS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RADIATE OUT A
BIT MORE.  EXPECT LOWS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* VERY WARM ON TUESDAY EXCEPT COOLER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND COAST
* UNSEASONABLY HOT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
* A BIT COOLER FRI INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL
* MAINLY DRY OTHER THEN PERHAPS A SPOT SHOWER/STORM THU

DETAILS...

ALL MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER RIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.  THIS
MEANS ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER.  WE MAY SEE ENOUGH FORCING TO SPARK A FEW SPOT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SOMETIME THU INTO THU EVENING WITH A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT.  HOWEVER...ODDS ARE AGAINST ANY WIDESPREAD MEANINGFUL
RAINFALL GIVEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING...SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE SLIGHT
CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW.

THE EXCEPTION FROM THE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL BE TUESDAY
ACROSS COASTAL NEW ENGLAND...WHEN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT KEEPS HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S.  HOWEVER...THE LOWER CT
RIVER VALLEY SHOULD STILL SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S ON TUE AND ITS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOMEONE TOUCHES 90.

THE HOTTEST WEATHER LOOK TO BE WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO THURSDAY
WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 18C.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S AND LOWER 90S AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW LOCATIONS
HIT THE MIDDLE 90S.

ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL COOL TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES FRI
INTO SAT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.  HOWEVER...STILL
EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL RIGHT THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND GIVEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN CONTROL.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

VFR TODAY WITH CIGS AOA 060 AND BRIEF SPRINKLE POSSIBLE. LOCAL
MVFR/IFR VSBYS AGAIN LATER TONIGHT AND AGAIN MON NIGHT IN PATCHY
VALLEY FOG. VFR MON.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD OTHER THAN VERY LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.  A SPOT
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE THU/THU EVENING...BUT
ODDS ARE AGAINST ANYTHING WIDESPREAD.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS WILL KEEP WINDS
AND WAVES BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS
EXPECTED. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF 5 FOOT
SEAS ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  VISIBILITY SHOULD BE
GOOD AS WELL...SO NICE BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TUE AND AGAIN SOMETIME THU INTO FRI WILL SHIFT
WINDS TO THE EAST...BUT GUSTS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN 20
KNOTS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/RLG
NEAR TERM...RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...FRANK/RLG
MARINE...FRANK/RLG




000
FXUS61 KALY 301755
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
155 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING CLOUDS AS WELL
AS ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. AFTERWARD...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME SITUATED OVER THE REGION
FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...ALLOWING FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED LEVELS OF HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 120 PM EDT...PATCHY CLOUDS CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD OVER
PORTIONS OF THE ENTIRE REGION. RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE
AS THEY MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. BEST CHANCE
OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER AS WE MOVE LATER ON INTO THE AFTERNOON WILL
BE IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S
AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ALREADY INTO THE LOWER 80S MAY PRODUCE A
POP UP SHOWER.

FOR THIS UPDATE...TOOK OUT THUNDER FROM THE GRIDS AS 12Z ALBANY
AND 12Z BUFFALO UPPER AIR DATA SHOWS LITTLE TO NO SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY
OVER OUR REGION OR ADVECTING INTO OUR REGION FROM THE WEST AS WE
GO LATER ON IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S IN HIGH TERRAIN TO LOWER AND MID 80S FOR
VALLEY LOCATIONS.

AS TEMPERATURES COOL PAST THE CROSSOVER TEMPERATURE...PATCHY FOG
IN VALLEY LOCATIONS IS EXPECTED...OTHERWISE A RATHER MUGGY EVENING
WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER AND MID
60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS THE FA THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY AS WE GO FROM INTO THE MID WEEK PERIOD.
DESPITE THE HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S WITH HIGHS
ON MONDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 90. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT ARE
ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S WITH HIGHS ON
TUESDAY IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. DEWPOINTS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE 60S MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH MOST
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

THE COMBINATION OF HIGH MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS...850 TEMPS IN THE
+16 TO +18 C RANGE...AND A LOW LEVEL NORTHWEST WIND FLOW SHOULD
ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH AT LEAST THE LOWER 90S WITHIN MUCH OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FOR WED AND THU...85-90 IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY
REGION...WITH 80S FOR MOST HIGHER TERRAIN...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE
HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SW VT MAY REMAIN
SLIGHTLY COOLER...AROUND 80. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE
MODERATE...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. THIS SHOULD ALLOW HEAT INDICES
BOTH DAYS TO REACH INTO THE MID TO PERHAPS UPPER 90S WITHIN THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND LOWER 90S ELSEWHERE. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS
FOR WED NT/THU AM AND THU NT/FRI AM SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE 60S.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY APPROACH FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST
SOMETIME LATE WED INTO THU. IN ADDITION...A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY SETTLE SOUTHWEST INTO THE
FORECAST AREA ON FRI. OVERALL FORCING WITH THESE FEATURES SHOULD
REMAIN WEAK...HOWEVER THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY WORKING
IN TANDEM WITH THE WEAK FORCING TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ESP THU AND FRI. FRI MAX TEMPS MAY
BE SLIGHTLY COOLER DUE TO MORE CLOUDS...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION...WITH 80S FOR MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND MID 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

MODELS SUGGEST THAT A SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHEAST OR EAST FOR LATE FRI INTO SAT...WITH THE POSSIBLE BACKDOOR
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING WEST AND SOUTH OF THE REGION. WILL
INDICATE DRY CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...ALONG WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS...ALBEIT STILL ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS ON SAT RANGING FROM 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...TO THE
LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS. FRI NT/SAT AM MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO
THE LOWER 60S IN LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL HOLD INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
HOWEVER...SUB-VFR FOG IS A GOOD BET OVERNIGHT INTO THE
MORNING PEAK.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON...THERE COULD BE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES BUT MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY. CIGS WILL
REMAIN MID LEVEL AND THE WIND LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

TONIGHT...CLOUDS WILL TEND TO DISSIPATE AFTER MIDNIGHT LEAVING
US THE LIKELYHOOD OF FOG FORMATION. FOR NOW...PLAN ON IFR MIST
(2SM) AT KGFL/KPSF AND KALB 08Z-12Z AND MVFR MIST (3SM) KPOU FROM
08Z-12Z.

CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS MODERATE BUT BEST TO CHECK IN
LATER OVERNIGHT OR FIRST THING TOMORROW SHOULD YOU PLAN TO FLY
EARLY MONDAY.

AFTER 12Z MONDAY...WE WILL BE LOOKING AT ANOTHER VFR FLYING DAY
WITH ONLY FEW-SCT CU BASES (ABOVE 5000 KFT) AND LIGHT WIND BECOME
WEST AROUND 5-10KTS (MORE SW) AT KGFL.


OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-WED NIGHT: PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT/EARLY IN THE AM.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECT FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

MOST OF THE REGION HAS NOT SEEN SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN OVER A
WEEK. THIS HAD LED TO THE KEETCH-BYRRAM DROUGHT INDEX APPROACHING
300 IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES...AND LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO RISE OVER
THE DAYS TO COME.

THAT SAID...THE WIND DURING THE NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO REMAIN CALM
AT NIGHT AND LIGHT DURING THE DAY (GENERALLY UNDER 10 MPH).

A FULL OR NEARLY RECOVERY IS EXPECTED EACH OF THE NEXT SEVERAL
NIGHTS ALLOWING FOR THE FORMATION OF DEW.

RH VALUES DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE MODERATE RANGE
(40-60 PERCENT).

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

NO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO FALL FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
FIVE DAYS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

RIVER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR
AUGUST...AND IF ANYTHING...MIGHT DROP A LITTLE MORE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/11
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/LFM
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...11



000
FXUS61 KALY 301755
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
155 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING CLOUDS AS WELL
AS ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. AFTERWARD...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME SITUATED OVER THE REGION
FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...ALLOWING FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED LEVELS OF HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 120 PM EDT...PATCHY CLOUDS CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD OVER
PORTIONS OF THE ENTIRE REGION. RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE
AS THEY MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. BEST CHANCE
OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER AS WE MOVE LATER ON INTO THE AFTERNOON WILL
BE IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S
AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ALREADY INTO THE LOWER 80S MAY PRODUCE A
POP UP SHOWER.

FOR THIS UPDATE...TOOK OUT THUNDER FROM THE GRIDS AS 12Z ALBANY
AND 12Z BUFFALO UPPER AIR DATA SHOWS LITTLE TO NO SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY
OVER OUR REGION OR ADVECTING INTO OUR REGION FROM THE WEST AS WE
GO LATER ON IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S IN HIGH TERRAIN TO LOWER AND MID 80S FOR
VALLEY LOCATIONS.

AS TEMPERATURES COOL PAST THE CROSSOVER TEMPERATURE...PATCHY FOG
IN VALLEY LOCATIONS IS EXPECTED...OTHERWISE A RATHER MUGGY EVENING
WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER AND MID
60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS THE FA THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY AS WE GO FROM INTO THE MID WEEK PERIOD.
DESPITE THE HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S WITH HIGHS
ON MONDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 90. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT ARE
ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S WITH HIGHS ON
TUESDAY IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. DEWPOINTS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE 60S MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH MOST
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

THE COMBINATION OF HIGH MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS...850 TEMPS IN THE
+16 TO +18 C RANGE...AND A LOW LEVEL NORTHWEST WIND FLOW SHOULD
ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH AT LEAST THE LOWER 90S WITHIN MUCH OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FOR WED AND THU...85-90 IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY
REGION...WITH 80S FOR MOST HIGHER TERRAIN...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE
HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SW VT MAY REMAIN
SLIGHTLY COOLER...AROUND 80. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE
MODERATE...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. THIS SHOULD ALLOW HEAT INDICES
BOTH DAYS TO REACH INTO THE MID TO PERHAPS UPPER 90S WITHIN THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND LOWER 90S ELSEWHERE. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS
FOR WED NT/THU AM AND THU NT/FRI AM SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE 60S.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY APPROACH FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST
SOMETIME LATE WED INTO THU. IN ADDITION...A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY SETTLE SOUTHWEST INTO THE
FORECAST AREA ON FRI. OVERALL FORCING WITH THESE FEATURES SHOULD
REMAIN WEAK...HOWEVER THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY WORKING
IN TANDEM WITH THE WEAK FORCING TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ESP THU AND FRI. FRI MAX TEMPS MAY
BE SLIGHTLY COOLER DUE TO MORE CLOUDS...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION...WITH 80S FOR MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND MID 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

MODELS SUGGEST THAT A SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHEAST OR EAST FOR LATE FRI INTO SAT...WITH THE POSSIBLE BACKDOOR
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING WEST AND SOUTH OF THE REGION. WILL
INDICATE DRY CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...ALONG WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS...ALBEIT STILL ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS ON SAT RANGING FROM 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...TO THE
LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS. FRI NT/SAT AM MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO
THE LOWER 60S IN LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL HOLD INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
HOWEVER...SUB-VFR FOG IS A GOOD BET OVERNIGHT INTO THE
MORNING PEAK.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON...THERE COULD BE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES BUT MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY. CIGS WILL
REMAIN MID LEVEL AND THE WIND LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

TONIGHT...CLOUDS WILL TEND TO DISSIPATE AFTER MIDNIGHT LEAVING
US THE LIKELYHOOD OF FOG FORMATION. FOR NOW...PLAN ON IFR MIST
(2SM) AT KGFL/KPSF AND KALB 08Z-12Z AND MVFR MIST (3SM) KPOU FROM
08Z-12Z.

CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS MODERATE BUT BEST TO CHECK IN
LATER OVERNIGHT OR FIRST THING TOMORROW SHOULD YOU PLAN TO FLY
EARLY MONDAY.

AFTER 12Z MONDAY...WE WILL BE LOOKING AT ANOTHER VFR FLYING DAY
WITH ONLY FEW-SCT CU BASES (ABOVE 5000 KFT) AND LIGHT WIND BECOME
WEST AROUND 5-10KTS (MORE SW) AT KGFL.


OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-WED NIGHT: PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT/EARLY IN THE AM.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECT FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

MOST OF THE REGION HAS NOT SEEN SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN OVER A
WEEK. THIS HAD LED TO THE KEETCH-BYRRAM DROUGHT INDEX APPROACHING
300 IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES...AND LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO RISE OVER
THE DAYS TO COME.

THAT SAID...THE WIND DURING THE NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO REMAIN CALM
AT NIGHT AND LIGHT DURING THE DAY (GENERALLY UNDER 10 MPH).

A FULL OR NEARLY RECOVERY IS EXPECTED EACH OF THE NEXT SEVERAL
NIGHTS ALLOWING FOR THE FORMATION OF DEW.

RH VALUES DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE MODERATE RANGE
(40-60 PERCENT).

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

NO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO FALL FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
FIVE DAYS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

RIVER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR
AUGUST...AND IF ANYTHING...MIGHT DROP A LITTLE MORE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/11
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/LFM
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...11




000
FXUS61 KALY 301755
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
155 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING CLOUDS AS WELL
AS ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. AFTERWARD...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME SITUATED OVER THE REGION
FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...ALLOWING FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED LEVELS OF HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 120 PM EDT...PATCHY CLOUDS CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD OVER
PORTIONS OF THE ENTIRE REGION. RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE
AS THEY MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. BEST CHANCE
OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER AS WE MOVE LATER ON INTO THE AFTERNOON WILL
BE IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S
AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ALREADY INTO THE LOWER 80S MAY PRODUCE A
POP UP SHOWER.

FOR THIS UPDATE...TOOK OUT THUNDER FROM THE GRIDS AS 12Z ALBANY
AND 12Z BUFFALO UPPER AIR DATA SHOWS LITTLE TO NO SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY
OVER OUR REGION OR ADVECTING INTO OUR REGION FROM THE WEST AS WE
GO LATER ON IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S IN HIGH TERRAIN TO LOWER AND MID 80S FOR
VALLEY LOCATIONS.

AS TEMPERATURES COOL PAST THE CROSSOVER TEMPERATURE...PATCHY FOG
IN VALLEY LOCATIONS IS EXPECTED...OTHERWISE A RATHER MUGGY EVENING
WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER AND MID
60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS THE FA THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY AS WE GO FROM INTO THE MID WEEK PERIOD.
DESPITE THE HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S WITH HIGHS
ON MONDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 90. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT ARE
ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S WITH HIGHS ON
TUESDAY IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. DEWPOINTS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE 60S MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH MOST
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

THE COMBINATION OF HIGH MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS...850 TEMPS IN THE
+16 TO +18 C RANGE...AND A LOW LEVEL NORTHWEST WIND FLOW SHOULD
ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH AT LEAST THE LOWER 90S WITHIN MUCH OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FOR WED AND THU...85-90 IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY
REGION...WITH 80S FOR MOST HIGHER TERRAIN...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE
HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SW VT MAY REMAIN
SLIGHTLY COOLER...AROUND 80. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE
MODERATE...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. THIS SHOULD ALLOW HEAT INDICES
BOTH DAYS TO REACH INTO THE MID TO PERHAPS UPPER 90S WITHIN THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND LOWER 90S ELSEWHERE. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS
FOR WED NT/THU AM AND THU NT/FRI AM SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE 60S.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY APPROACH FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST
SOMETIME LATE WED INTO THU. IN ADDITION...A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY SETTLE SOUTHWEST INTO THE
FORECAST AREA ON FRI. OVERALL FORCING WITH THESE FEATURES SHOULD
REMAIN WEAK...HOWEVER THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY WORKING
IN TANDEM WITH THE WEAK FORCING TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ESP THU AND FRI. FRI MAX TEMPS MAY
BE SLIGHTLY COOLER DUE TO MORE CLOUDS...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION...WITH 80S FOR MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND MID 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

MODELS SUGGEST THAT A SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHEAST OR EAST FOR LATE FRI INTO SAT...WITH THE POSSIBLE BACKDOOR
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING WEST AND SOUTH OF THE REGION. WILL
INDICATE DRY CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...ALONG WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS...ALBEIT STILL ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS ON SAT RANGING FROM 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...TO THE
LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS. FRI NT/SAT AM MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO
THE LOWER 60S IN LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL HOLD INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
HOWEVER...SUB-VFR FOG IS A GOOD BET OVERNIGHT INTO THE
MORNING PEAK.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON...THERE COULD BE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES BUT MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY. CIGS WILL
REMAIN MID LEVEL AND THE WIND LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

TONIGHT...CLOUDS WILL TEND TO DISSIPATE AFTER MIDNIGHT LEAVING
US THE LIKELYHOOD OF FOG FORMATION. FOR NOW...PLAN ON IFR MIST
(2SM) AT KGFL/KPSF AND KALB 08Z-12Z AND MVFR MIST (3SM) KPOU FROM
08Z-12Z.

CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS MODERATE BUT BEST TO CHECK IN
LATER OVERNIGHT OR FIRST THING TOMORROW SHOULD YOU PLAN TO FLY
EARLY MONDAY.

AFTER 12Z MONDAY...WE WILL BE LOOKING AT ANOTHER VFR FLYING DAY
WITH ONLY FEW-SCT CU BASES (ABOVE 5000 KFT) AND LIGHT WIND BECOME
WEST AROUND 5-10KTS (MORE SW) AT KGFL.


OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-WED NIGHT: PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT/EARLY IN THE AM.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECT FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

MOST OF THE REGION HAS NOT SEEN SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN OVER A
WEEK. THIS HAD LED TO THE KEETCH-BYRRAM DROUGHT INDEX APPROACHING
300 IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES...AND LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO RISE OVER
THE DAYS TO COME.

THAT SAID...THE WIND DURING THE NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO REMAIN CALM
AT NIGHT AND LIGHT DURING THE DAY (GENERALLY UNDER 10 MPH).

A FULL OR NEARLY RECOVERY IS EXPECTED EACH OF THE NEXT SEVERAL
NIGHTS ALLOWING FOR THE FORMATION OF DEW.

RH VALUES DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE MODERATE RANGE
(40-60 PERCENT).

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

NO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO FALL FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
FIVE DAYS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

RIVER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR
AUGUST...AND IF ANYTHING...MIGHT DROP A LITTLE MORE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/11
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/LFM
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...11




000
FXUS61 KALY 301755
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
155 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING CLOUDS AS WELL
AS ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. AFTERWARD...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME SITUATED OVER THE REGION
FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...ALLOWING FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED LEVELS OF HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 120 PM EDT...PATCHY CLOUDS CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD OVER
PORTIONS OF THE ENTIRE REGION. RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE
AS THEY MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. BEST CHANCE
OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER AS WE MOVE LATER ON INTO THE AFTERNOON WILL
BE IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S
AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ALREADY INTO THE LOWER 80S MAY PRODUCE A
POP UP SHOWER.

FOR THIS UPDATE...TOOK OUT THUNDER FROM THE GRIDS AS 12Z ALBANY
AND 12Z BUFFALO UPPER AIR DATA SHOWS LITTLE TO NO SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY
OVER OUR REGION OR ADVECTING INTO OUR REGION FROM THE WEST AS WE
GO LATER ON IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S IN HIGH TERRAIN TO LOWER AND MID 80S FOR
VALLEY LOCATIONS.

AS TEMPERATURES COOL PAST THE CROSSOVER TEMPERATURE...PATCHY FOG
IN VALLEY LOCATIONS IS EXPECTED...OTHERWISE A RATHER MUGGY EVENING
WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER AND MID
60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS THE FA THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY AS WE GO FROM INTO THE MID WEEK PERIOD.
DESPITE THE HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S WITH HIGHS
ON MONDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 90. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT ARE
ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S WITH HIGHS ON
TUESDAY IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. DEWPOINTS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE 60S MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH MOST
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

THE COMBINATION OF HIGH MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS...850 TEMPS IN THE
+16 TO +18 C RANGE...AND A LOW LEVEL NORTHWEST WIND FLOW SHOULD
ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH AT LEAST THE LOWER 90S WITHIN MUCH OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FOR WED AND THU...85-90 IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY
REGION...WITH 80S FOR MOST HIGHER TERRAIN...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE
HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SW VT MAY REMAIN
SLIGHTLY COOLER...AROUND 80. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE
MODERATE...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. THIS SHOULD ALLOW HEAT INDICES
BOTH DAYS TO REACH INTO THE MID TO PERHAPS UPPER 90S WITHIN THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND LOWER 90S ELSEWHERE. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS
FOR WED NT/THU AM AND THU NT/FRI AM SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE 60S.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY APPROACH FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST
SOMETIME LATE WED INTO THU. IN ADDITION...A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY SETTLE SOUTHWEST INTO THE
FORECAST AREA ON FRI. OVERALL FORCING WITH THESE FEATURES SHOULD
REMAIN WEAK...HOWEVER THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY WORKING
IN TANDEM WITH THE WEAK FORCING TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ESP THU AND FRI. FRI MAX TEMPS MAY
BE SLIGHTLY COOLER DUE TO MORE CLOUDS...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION...WITH 80S FOR MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND MID 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

MODELS SUGGEST THAT A SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHEAST OR EAST FOR LATE FRI INTO SAT...WITH THE POSSIBLE BACKDOOR
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING WEST AND SOUTH OF THE REGION. WILL
INDICATE DRY CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...ALONG WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS...ALBEIT STILL ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS ON SAT RANGING FROM 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...TO THE
LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS. FRI NT/SAT AM MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO
THE LOWER 60S IN LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL HOLD INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
HOWEVER...SUB-VFR FOG IS A GOOD BET OVERNIGHT INTO THE
MORNING PEAK.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON...THERE COULD BE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES BUT MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY. CIGS WILL
REMAIN MID LEVEL AND THE WIND LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

TONIGHT...CLOUDS WILL TEND TO DISSIPATE AFTER MIDNIGHT LEAVING
US THE LIKELYHOOD OF FOG FORMATION. FOR NOW...PLAN ON IFR MIST
(2SM) AT KGFL/KPSF AND KALB 08Z-12Z AND MVFR MIST (3SM) KPOU FROM
08Z-12Z.

CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS MODERATE BUT BEST TO CHECK IN
LATER OVERNIGHT OR FIRST THING TOMORROW SHOULD YOU PLAN TO FLY
EARLY MONDAY.

AFTER 12Z MONDAY...WE WILL BE LOOKING AT ANOTHER VFR FLYING DAY
WITH ONLY FEW-SCT CU BASES (ABOVE 5000 KFT) AND LIGHT WIND BECOME
WEST AROUND 5-10KTS (MORE SW) AT KGFL.


OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-WED NIGHT: PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT/EARLY IN THE AM.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECT FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

MOST OF THE REGION HAS NOT SEEN SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN OVER A
WEEK. THIS HAD LED TO THE KEETCH-BYRRAM DROUGHT INDEX APPROACHING
300 IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES...AND LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO RISE OVER
THE DAYS TO COME.

THAT SAID...THE WIND DURING THE NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO REMAIN CALM
AT NIGHT AND LIGHT DURING THE DAY (GENERALLY UNDER 10 MPH).

A FULL OR NEARLY RECOVERY IS EXPECTED EACH OF THE NEXT SEVERAL
NIGHTS ALLOWING FOR THE FORMATION OF DEW.

RH VALUES DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE MODERATE RANGE
(40-60 PERCENT).

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

NO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO FALL FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
FIVE DAYS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

RIVER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR
AUGUST...AND IF ANYTHING...MIGHT DROP A LITTLE MORE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/11
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/LFM
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...11



000
FXUS61 KOKX 301733
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
133 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH
WHICH WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE THEN PASSES TO THE
NORTH ACROSS EASTERN CANADA ON MONDAY...SENDING A WEAK BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MINOR CHANGES MADE TO FORECAST DATABASE TO BETTER MATCH OBSERVED
TRENDS. TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY INCREASED ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND
TEMPERATURES ELSEWHERE WERE PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK. DEWPOINTS WERE
INCREASED SLIGHTLY AS WELL ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS. POPS WERE
KEPT AT SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF NYC.
MESOSCALE MODELS NOT SHOWING MUCH CONVECTION WITH HRRR MODEL
SHOWING RELATIVELY MORE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE.

THE TREND WILL BE FOR WARMER AND INCREASINGLY MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS HEADING INTO THE NEW WEEK AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN U.S. MERGES WITH THE SUB TROPICAL RIDGE ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD. IN BETWEEN...A WEAKNESS ACROSS THE MID
SECTION OF THE COUNTRY WILL GRADUALLY FILL...WHILE A NORTHERN
STREAM SHORT WAVE TROF PASSES THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. AT THE
SURFACE...THIS WILL BE REFLECTED AS A SFC TROF OR WARM FRONT...
PRECEDED BY WEAK THERMAL FORCING. THIS FORCING COMBINED WITH
MARGINAL INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER AND/OR
THUNDERSTORM THIS AFT/EVE...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF NYC. CLOUDS
WILL ALSO SPREAD IN FROM THE NW TODAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS BY AFTERNOON INLAND AND PARTY SUNNY AT THE COAST.

HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 80S NEAR THE COAST...TO AROUND 90
INLAND.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AFOREMENTIONED TROF/WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT WITH GRADUAL
CLEARING FROM NW TO SE BY MORNING. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO
EXPAND EASTWARD ON MON WITH WARMING TEMP PROFILES ALOFT AND A
GUSTY W/SW FLOW IN THE AFT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHS A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN ON SUN...WITH READINGS TOPPING OUT IN THE
LOWER 90S INLAND.

A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THEN PASSES THROUGH MON NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE PASSES WELL TO THE NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. NOT MUCH RELIEF THOUGH FOR TUE WITH PERHAPS A DEGREE
OR TWO SHAVED OFF OF MON HIGHS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO
MID 60S INLAND...TO 70 TO 75 NYC METRO. THESE READINGS ARE STILL
WELL ABOVE NORMAL. IT WILL ALSO BE MUGGY WITH DEW POINTS WELL INTO
THE 60S. HEAT INDEX VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA
AT THIS TIME.

WINDS BRIEFLY GO NW TUE MORNING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...BUT THEN
RETURN FROM THE S BY AFT AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD AND
DISSIPATES NEARBY. SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL PUT A CAP ON ANY
CONVECTION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MAIN THEME OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE CONTINUATION OF
HEAT AND HUMIDITY ACROSS THE REGION.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE H5 PATTERN ACROSS NORTH
AMERICA INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OUT WEST MERGES WITH THE SUB TROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER
THROUGH THU POSSIBLY FRI. THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF THE
NEXT COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS WHICH IS CURRENTLY UNCERTAIN DUE TO
DIFFERENCES THAT DEVELOP IN THE H5 FLOW DURING THE LATTER PORTION
OF THE WEEK. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS OR TSTMS WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WHICH IS CURRENTLY SLATED FOR FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY DRY
CONDITIONS AND COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR THE
WEEKEND.

HIGHS WILL GENERALLY RANGE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...THE EXCEPTION FRI/SAT WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES IN/THROUGH THE AREA. HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE CLOSE TO THE AMBIENT AIR TEMP AND ARE NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED
TO REACH 95 DEGREES IN NYC THROUGH WED.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE TRI-STATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN STALL OUT SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND INTO
MONDAY.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SEABREEZES ON TRACK FOR ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KSWF/KTEB AND
PROBABLY KEWR. ALREADY THROUGH CT TERMINALS/KISP/KJFK. QUESTION
IS TIMING FOR REMAINDER OF TERMINALS. ISOLATED GUSTS TO AROUND 15
KT POSSIBLE AT NYC METRO TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL.

WINDS BECOME SW AT UNDER 10 KT AT CITY TERMINALS TONIGHT AND
LIGHT AND VARIABLE ELSEWHERE. WSW- WNW WINDS AT AROUND 10 KT
DEVELOP BY LATE MONDAY MORNING- EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WIND
SPEEDS COULD INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KT AT KJFK TOWARDS THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD.

AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. HAVE INCLUDED A
VCSH AT KSWF TO REFLECT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.MONDAY AFTERNOON...VFR. WSW-W WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR. AFTERNOON SEABREEZES
PROBABLE EACH AFTERNOON.
.THURSDAY...MOST LIKELY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. AFTERNOON SEABREEZES PROBABLE.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.FRIDAY...MOST LIKELY VFR. E WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE. ISOLATED-
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECAST WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO REMAIN ON TRACK.

A RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD WITH SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WILL FEATURE
LATE AFT/EARLY EVE ENHANCEMENT OF THE SW FLOW FROM THE NY BIGHT
EAST ALONG THE OCEAN WATERS. THESE WINDS MAY GUSTS TO AROUND 20
KT WITH SEAS AS HIGH AS 4 FT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
ACROSS THE WATERS ON TUE WITH TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THROUGH THU.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A RECENT FULL MOON...BRIEF MINOR INUNDATION IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE ACROSS THE TYPICALLY VULNERABLE
COASTAL LOCALES INTO THE START OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DW
NEAR TERM...JM/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...DW/24
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...JM/DW/24
HYDROLOGY...DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KOKX 301733
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
133 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH
WHICH WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE THEN PASSES TO THE
NORTH ACROSS EASTERN CANADA ON MONDAY...SENDING A WEAK BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MINOR CHANGES MADE TO FORECAST DATABASE TO BETTER MATCH OBSERVED
TRENDS. TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY INCREASED ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND
TEMPERATURES ELSEWHERE WERE PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK. DEWPOINTS WERE
INCREASED SLIGHTLY AS WELL ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS. POPS WERE
KEPT AT SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF NYC.
MESOSCALE MODELS NOT SHOWING MUCH CONVECTION WITH HRRR MODEL
SHOWING RELATIVELY MORE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE.

THE TREND WILL BE FOR WARMER AND INCREASINGLY MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS HEADING INTO THE NEW WEEK AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN U.S. MERGES WITH THE SUB TROPICAL RIDGE ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD. IN BETWEEN...A WEAKNESS ACROSS THE MID
SECTION OF THE COUNTRY WILL GRADUALLY FILL...WHILE A NORTHERN
STREAM SHORT WAVE TROF PASSES THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. AT THE
SURFACE...THIS WILL BE REFLECTED AS A SFC TROF OR WARM FRONT...
PRECEDED BY WEAK THERMAL FORCING. THIS FORCING COMBINED WITH
MARGINAL INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER AND/OR
THUNDERSTORM THIS AFT/EVE...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF NYC. CLOUDS
WILL ALSO SPREAD IN FROM THE NW TODAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS BY AFTERNOON INLAND AND PARTY SUNNY AT THE COAST.

HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 80S NEAR THE COAST...TO AROUND 90
INLAND.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AFOREMENTIONED TROF/WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT WITH GRADUAL
CLEARING FROM NW TO SE BY MORNING. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO
EXPAND EASTWARD ON MON WITH WARMING TEMP PROFILES ALOFT AND A
GUSTY W/SW FLOW IN THE AFT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHS A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN ON SUN...WITH READINGS TOPPING OUT IN THE
LOWER 90S INLAND.

A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THEN PASSES THROUGH MON NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE PASSES WELL TO THE NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. NOT MUCH RELIEF THOUGH FOR TUE WITH PERHAPS A DEGREE
OR TWO SHAVED OFF OF MON HIGHS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO
MID 60S INLAND...TO 70 TO 75 NYC METRO. THESE READINGS ARE STILL
WELL ABOVE NORMAL. IT WILL ALSO BE MUGGY WITH DEW POINTS WELL INTO
THE 60S. HEAT INDEX VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA
AT THIS TIME.

WINDS BRIEFLY GO NW TUE MORNING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...BUT THEN
RETURN FROM THE S BY AFT AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD AND
DISSIPATES NEARBY. SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL PUT A CAP ON ANY
CONVECTION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MAIN THEME OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE CONTINUATION OF
HEAT AND HUMIDITY ACROSS THE REGION.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE H5 PATTERN ACROSS NORTH
AMERICA INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OUT WEST MERGES WITH THE SUB TROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER
THROUGH THU POSSIBLY FRI. THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF THE
NEXT COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS WHICH IS CURRENTLY UNCERTAIN DUE TO
DIFFERENCES THAT DEVELOP IN THE H5 FLOW DURING THE LATTER PORTION
OF THE WEEK. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS OR TSTMS WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WHICH IS CURRENTLY SLATED FOR FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY DRY
CONDITIONS AND COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR THE
WEEKEND.

HIGHS WILL GENERALLY RANGE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...THE EXCEPTION FRI/SAT WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES IN/THROUGH THE AREA. HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE CLOSE TO THE AMBIENT AIR TEMP AND ARE NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED
TO REACH 95 DEGREES IN NYC THROUGH WED.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE TRI-STATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN STALL OUT SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND INTO
MONDAY.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SEABREEZES ON TRACK FOR ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KSWF/KTEB AND
PROBABLY KEWR. ALREADY THROUGH CT TERMINALS/KISP/KJFK. QUESTION
IS TIMING FOR REMAINDER OF TERMINALS. ISOLATED GUSTS TO AROUND 15
KT POSSIBLE AT NYC METRO TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL.

WINDS BECOME SW AT UNDER 10 KT AT CITY TERMINALS TONIGHT AND
LIGHT AND VARIABLE ELSEWHERE. WSW- WNW WINDS AT AROUND 10 KT
DEVELOP BY LATE MONDAY MORNING- EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WIND
SPEEDS COULD INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KT AT KJFK TOWARDS THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD.

AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. HAVE INCLUDED A
VCSH AT KSWF TO REFLECT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.MONDAY AFTERNOON...VFR. WSW-W WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR. AFTERNOON SEABREEZES
PROBABLE EACH AFTERNOON.
.THURSDAY...MOST LIKELY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. AFTERNOON SEABREEZES PROBABLE.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.FRIDAY...MOST LIKELY VFR. E WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE. ISOLATED-
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECAST WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO REMAIN ON TRACK.

A RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD WITH SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WILL FEATURE
LATE AFT/EARLY EVE ENHANCEMENT OF THE SW FLOW FROM THE NY BIGHT
EAST ALONG THE OCEAN WATERS. THESE WINDS MAY GUSTS TO AROUND 20
KT WITH SEAS AS HIGH AS 4 FT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
ACROSS THE WATERS ON TUE WITH TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THROUGH THU.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A RECENT FULL MOON...BRIEF MINOR INUNDATION IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE ACROSS THE TYPICALLY VULNERABLE
COASTAL LOCALES INTO THE START OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DW
NEAR TERM...JM/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...DW/24
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...JM/DW/24
HYDROLOGY...DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KOKX 301733
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
133 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH
WHICH WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE THEN PASSES TO THE
NORTH ACROSS EASTERN CANADA ON MONDAY...SENDING A WEAK BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MINOR CHANGES MADE TO FORECAST DATABASE TO BETTER MATCH OBSERVED
TRENDS. TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY INCREASED ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND
TEMPERATURES ELSEWHERE WERE PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK. DEWPOINTS WERE
INCREASED SLIGHTLY AS WELL ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS. POPS WERE
KEPT AT SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF NYC.
MESOSCALE MODELS NOT SHOWING MUCH CONVECTION WITH HRRR MODEL
SHOWING RELATIVELY MORE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE.

THE TREND WILL BE FOR WARMER AND INCREASINGLY MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS HEADING INTO THE NEW WEEK AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN U.S. MERGES WITH THE SUB TROPICAL RIDGE ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD. IN BETWEEN...A WEAKNESS ACROSS THE MID
SECTION OF THE COUNTRY WILL GRADUALLY FILL...WHILE A NORTHERN
STREAM SHORT WAVE TROF PASSES THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. AT THE
SURFACE...THIS WILL BE REFLECTED AS A SFC TROF OR WARM FRONT...
PRECEDED BY WEAK THERMAL FORCING. THIS FORCING COMBINED WITH
MARGINAL INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER AND/OR
THUNDERSTORM THIS AFT/EVE...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF NYC. CLOUDS
WILL ALSO SPREAD IN FROM THE NW TODAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS BY AFTERNOON INLAND AND PARTY SUNNY AT THE COAST.

HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 80S NEAR THE COAST...TO AROUND 90
INLAND.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AFOREMENTIONED TROF/WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT WITH GRADUAL
CLEARING FROM NW TO SE BY MORNING. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO
EXPAND EASTWARD ON MON WITH WARMING TEMP PROFILES ALOFT AND A
GUSTY W/SW FLOW IN THE AFT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHS A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN ON SUN...WITH READINGS TOPPING OUT IN THE
LOWER 90S INLAND.

A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THEN PASSES THROUGH MON NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE PASSES WELL TO THE NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. NOT MUCH RELIEF THOUGH FOR TUE WITH PERHAPS A DEGREE
OR TWO SHAVED OFF OF MON HIGHS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO
MID 60S INLAND...TO 70 TO 75 NYC METRO. THESE READINGS ARE STILL
WELL ABOVE NORMAL. IT WILL ALSO BE MUGGY WITH DEW POINTS WELL INTO
THE 60S. HEAT INDEX VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA
AT THIS TIME.

WINDS BRIEFLY GO NW TUE MORNING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...BUT THEN
RETURN FROM THE S BY AFT AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD AND
DISSIPATES NEARBY. SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL PUT A CAP ON ANY
CONVECTION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MAIN THEME OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE CONTINUATION OF
HEAT AND HUMIDITY ACROSS THE REGION.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE H5 PATTERN ACROSS NORTH
AMERICA INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OUT WEST MERGES WITH THE SUB TROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER
THROUGH THU POSSIBLY FRI. THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF THE
NEXT COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS WHICH IS CURRENTLY UNCERTAIN DUE TO
DIFFERENCES THAT DEVELOP IN THE H5 FLOW DURING THE LATTER PORTION
OF THE WEEK. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS OR TSTMS WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WHICH IS CURRENTLY SLATED FOR FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY DRY
CONDITIONS AND COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR THE
WEEKEND.

HIGHS WILL GENERALLY RANGE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...THE EXCEPTION FRI/SAT WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES IN/THROUGH THE AREA. HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE CLOSE TO THE AMBIENT AIR TEMP AND ARE NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED
TO REACH 95 DEGREES IN NYC THROUGH WED.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE TRI-STATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN STALL OUT SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND INTO
MONDAY.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SEABREEZES ON TRACK FOR ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KSWF/KTEB AND
PROBABLY KEWR. ALREADY THROUGH CT TERMINALS/KISP/KJFK. QUESTION
IS TIMING FOR REMAINDER OF TERMINALS. ISOLATED GUSTS TO AROUND 15
KT POSSIBLE AT NYC METRO TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL.

WINDS BECOME SW AT UNDER 10 KT AT CITY TERMINALS TONIGHT AND
LIGHT AND VARIABLE ELSEWHERE. WSW- WNW WINDS AT AROUND 10 KT
DEVELOP BY LATE MONDAY MORNING- EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WIND
SPEEDS COULD INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KT AT KJFK TOWARDS THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD.

AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. HAVE INCLUDED A
VCSH AT KSWF TO REFLECT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.MONDAY AFTERNOON...VFR. WSW-W WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR. AFTERNOON SEABREEZES
PROBABLE EACH AFTERNOON.
.THURSDAY...MOST LIKELY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. AFTERNOON SEABREEZES PROBABLE.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.FRIDAY...MOST LIKELY VFR. E WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE. ISOLATED-
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECAST WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO REMAIN ON TRACK.

A RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD WITH SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WILL FEATURE
LATE AFT/EARLY EVE ENHANCEMENT OF THE SW FLOW FROM THE NY BIGHT
EAST ALONG THE OCEAN WATERS. THESE WINDS MAY GUSTS TO AROUND 20
KT WITH SEAS AS HIGH AS 4 FT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
ACROSS THE WATERS ON TUE WITH TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THROUGH THU.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A RECENT FULL MOON...BRIEF MINOR INUNDATION IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE ACROSS THE TYPICALLY VULNERABLE
COASTAL LOCALES INTO THE START OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DW
NEAR TERM...JM/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...DW/24
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...JM/DW/24
HYDROLOGY...DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KOKX 301733
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
133 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH
WHICH WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE THEN PASSES TO THE
NORTH ACROSS EASTERN CANADA ON MONDAY...SENDING A WEAK BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MINOR CHANGES MADE TO FORECAST DATABASE TO BETTER MATCH OBSERVED
TRENDS. TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY INCREASED ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND
TEMPERATURES ELSEWHERE WERE PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK. DEWPOINTS WERE
INCREASED SLIGHTLY AS WELL ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS. POPS WERE
KEPT AT SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF NYC.
MESOSCALE MODELS NOT SHOWING MUCH CONVECTION WITH HRRR MODEL
SHOWING RELATIVELY MORE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE.

THE TREND WILL BE FOR WARMER AND INCREASINGLY MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS HEADING INTO THE NEW WEEK AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN U.S. MERGES WITH THE SUB TROPICAL RIDGE ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD. IN BETWEEN...A WEAKNESS ACROSS THE MID
SECTION OF THE COUNTRY WILL GRADUALLY FILL...WHILE A NORTHERN
STREAM SHORT WAVE TROF PASSES THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. AT THE
SURFACE...THIS WILL BE REFLECTED AS A SFC TROF OR WARM FRONT...
PRECEDED BY WEAK THERMAL FORCING. THIS FORCING COMBINED WITH
MARGINAL INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER AND/OR
THUNDERSTORM THIS AFT/EVE...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF NYC. CLOUDS
WILL ALSO SPREAD IN FROM THE NW TODAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS BY AFTERNOON INLAND AND PARTY SUNNY AT THE COAST.

HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 80S NEAR THE COAST...TO AROUND 90
INLAND.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AFOREMENTIONED TROF/WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT WITH GRADUAL
CLEARING FROM NW TO SE BY MORNING. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO
EXPAND EASTWARD ON MON WITH WARMING TEMP PROFILES ALOFT AND A
GUSTY W/SW FLOW IN THE AFT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHS A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN ON SUN...WITH READINGS TOPPING OUT IN THE
LOWER 90S INLAND.

A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THEN PASSES THROUGH MON NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE PASSES WELL TO THE NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. NOT MUCH RELIEF THOUGH FOR TUE WITH PERHAPS A DEGREE
OR TWO SHAVED OFF OF MON HIGHS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO
MID 60S INLAND...TO 70 TO 75 NYC METRO. THESE READINGS ARE STILL
WELL ABOVE NORMAL. IT WILL ALSO BE MUGGY WITH DEW POINTS WELL INTO
THE 60S. HEAT INDEX VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA
AT THIS TIME.

WINDS BRIEFLY GO NW TUE MORNING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...BUT THEN
RETURN FROM THE S BY AFT AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD AND
DISSIPATES NEARBY. SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL PUT A CAP ON ANY
CONVECTION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MAIN THEME OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE CONTINUATION OF
HEAT AND HUMIDITY ACROSS THE REGION.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE H5 PATTERN ACROSS NORTH
AMERICA INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OUT WEST MERGES WITH THE SUB TROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER
THROUGH THU POSSIBLY FRI. THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF THE
NEXT COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS WHICH IS CURRENTLY UNCERTAIN DUE TO
DIFFERENCES THAT DEVELOP IN THE H5 FLOW DURING THE LATTER PORTION
OF THE WEEK. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS OR TSTMS WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WHICH IS CURRENTLY SLATED FOR FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY DRY
CONDITIONS AND COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR THE
WEEKEND.

HIGHS WILL GENERALLY RANGE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...THE EXCEPTION FRI/SAT WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES IN/THROUGH THE AREA. HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE CLOSE TO THE AMBIENT AIR TEMP AND ARE NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED
TO REACH 95 DEGREES IN NYC THROUGH WED.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE TRI-STATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN STALL OUT SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND INTO
MONDAY.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SEABREEZES ON TRACK FOR ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KSWF/KTEB AND
PROBABLY KEWR. ALREADY THROUGH CT TERMINALS/KISP/KJFK. QUESTION
IS TIMING FOR REMAINDER OF TERMINALS. ISOLATED GUSTS TO AROUND 15
KT POSSIBLE AT NYC METRO TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL.

WINDS BECOME SW AT UNDER 10 KT AT CITY TERMINALS TONIGHT AND
LIGHT AND VARIABLE ELSEWHERE. WSW- WNW WINDS AT AROUND 10 KT
DEVELOP BY LATE MONDAY MORNING- EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WIND
SPEEDS COULD INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KT AT KJFK TOWARDS THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD.

AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. HAVE INCLUDED A
VCSH AT KSWF TO REFLECT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.MONDAY AFTERNOON...VFR. WSW-W WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR. AFTERNOON SEABREEZES
PROBABLE EACH AFTERNOON.
.THURSDAY...MOST LIKELY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. AFTERNOON SEABREEZES PROBABLE.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.FRIDAY...MOST LIKELY VFR. E WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE. ISOLATED-
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECAST WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO REMAIN ON TRACK.

A RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD WITH SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WILL FEATURE
LATE AFT/EARLY EVE ENHANCEMENT OF THE SW FLOW FROM THE NY BIGHT
EAST ALONG THE OCEAN WATERS. THESE WINDS MAY GUSTS TO AROUND 20
KT WITH SEAS AS HIGH AS 4 FT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
ACROSS THE WATERS ON TUE WITH TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THROUGH THU.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A RECENT FULL MOON...BRIEF MINOR INUNDATION IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE ACROSS THE TYPICALLY VULNERABLE
COASTAL LOCALES INTO THE START OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DW
NEAR TERM...JM/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...DW/24
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...JM/DW/24
HYDROLOGY...DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KOKX 301733
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
133 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH
WHICH WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE THEN PASSES TO THE
NORTH ACROSS EASTERN CANADA ON MONDAY...SENDING A WEAK BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MINOR CHANGES MADE TO FORECAST DATABASE TO BETTER MATCH OBSERVED
TRENDS. TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY INCREASED ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND
TEMPERATURES ELSEWHERE WERE PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK. DEWPOINTS WERE
INCREASED SLIGHTLY AS WELL ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS. POPS WERE
KEPT AT SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF NYC.
MESOSCALE MODELS NOT SHOWING MUCH CONVECTION WITH HRRR MODEL
SHOWING RELATIVELY MORE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE.

THE TREND WILL BE FOR WARMER AND INCREASINGLY MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS HEADING INTO THE NEW WEEK AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN U.S. MERGES WITH THE SUB TROPICAL RIDGE ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD. IN BETWEEN...A WEAKNESS ACROSS THE MID
SECTION OF THE COUNTRY WILL GRADUALLY FILL...WHILE A NORTHERN
STREAM SHORT WAVE TROF PASSES THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. AT THE
SURFACE...THIS WILL BE REFLECTED AS A SFC TROF OR WARM FRONT...
PRECEDED BY WEAK THERMAL FORCING. THIS FORCING COMBINED WITH
MARGINAL INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER AND/OR
THUNDERSTORM THIS AFT/EVE...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF NYC. CLOUDS
WILL ALSO SPREAD IN FROM THE NW TODAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS BY AFTERNOON INLAND AND PARTY SUNNY AT THE COAST.

HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 80S NEAR THE COAST...TO AROUND 90
INLAND.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AFOREMENTIONED TROF/WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT WITH GRADUAL
CLEARING FROM NW TO SE BY MORNING. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO
EXPAND EASTWARD ON MON WITH WARMING TEMP PROFILES ALOFT AND A
GUSTY W/SW FLOW IN THE AFT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHS A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN ON SUN...WITH READINGS TOPPING OUT IN THE
LOWER 90S INLAND.

A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THEN PASSES THROUGH MON NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE PASSES WELL TO THE NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. NOT MUCH RELIEF THOUGH FOR TUE WITH PERHAPS A DEGREE
OR TWO SHAVED OFF OF MON HIGHS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO
MID 60S INLAND...TO 70 TO 75 NYC METRO. THESE READINGS ARE STILL
WELL ABOVE NORMAL. IT WILL ALSO BE MUGGY WITH DEW POINTS WELL INTO
THE 60S. HEAT INDEX VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA
AT THIS TIME.

WINDS BRIEFLY GO NW TUE MORNING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...BUT THEN
RETURN FROM THE S BY AFT AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD AND
DISSIPATES NEARBY. SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL PUT A CAP ON ANY
CONVECTION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MAIN THEME OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE CONTINUATION OF
HEAT AND HUMIDITY ACROSS THE REGION.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE H5 PATTERN ACROSS NORTH
AMERICA INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OUT WEST MERGES WITH THE SUB TROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER
THROUGH THU POSSIBLY FRI. THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF THE
NEXT COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS WHICH IS CURRENTLY UNCERTAIN DUE TO
DIFFERENCES THAT DEVELOP IN THE H5 FLOW DURING THE LATTER PORTION
OF THE WEEK. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS OR TSTMS WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WHICH IS CURRENTLY SLATED FOR FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY DRY
CONDITIONS AND COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR THE
WEEKEND.

HIGHS WILL GENERALLY RANGE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...THE EXCEPTION FRI/SAT WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES IN/THROUGH THE AREA. HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE CLOSE TO THE AMBIENT AIR TEMP AND ARE NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED
TO REACH 95 DEGREES IN NYC THROUGH WED.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE TRI-STATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN STALL OUT SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND INTO
MONDAY.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SEABREEZES ON TRACK FOR ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KSWF/KTEB AND
PROBABLY KEWR. ALREADY THROUGH CT TERMINALS/KISP/KJFK. QUESTION
IS TIMING FOR REMAINDER OF TERMINALS. ISOLATED GUSTS TO AROUND 15
KT POSSIBLE AT NYC METRO TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL.

WINDS BECOME SW AT UNDER 10 KT AT CITY TERMINALS TONIGHT AND
LIGHT AND VARIABLE ELSEWHERE. WSW- WNW WINDS AT AROUND 10 KT
DEVELOP BY LATE MONDAY MORNING- EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WIND
SPEEDS COULD INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KT AT KJFK TOWARDS THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD.

AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. HAVE INCLUDED A
VCSH AT KSWF TO REFLECT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.MONDAY AFTERNOON...VFR. WSW-W WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR. AFTERNOON SEABREEZES
PROBABLE EACH AFTERNOON.
.THURSDAY...MOST LIKELY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. AFTERNOON SEABREEZES PROBABLE.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.FRIDAY...MOST LIKELY VFR. E WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE. ISOLATED-
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECAST WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO REMAIN ON TRACK.

A RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD WITH SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WILL FEATURE
LATE AFT/EARLY EVE ENHANCEMENT OF THE SW FLOW FROM THE NY BIGHT
EAST ALONG THE OCEAN WATERS. THESE WINDS MAY GUSTS TO AROUND 20
KT WITH SEAS AS HIGH AS 4 FT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
ACROSS THE WATERS ON TUE WITH TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THROUGH THU.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A RECENT FULL MOON...BRIEF MINOR INUNDATION IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE ACROSS THE TYPICALLY VULNERABLE
COASTAL LOCALES INTO THE START OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DW
NEAR TERM...JM/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...DW/24
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...JM/DW/24
HYDROLOGY...DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KALY 301722
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
122 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING CLOUDS AS WELL
AS ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. AFTERWARD...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME SITUATED OVER THE REGION
FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...ALLOWING FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED LEVELS OF HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 120 PM EDT...PATCHY CLOUDS CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD OVER
PORTIONS OF THE ENTIRE REGION. RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE
AS THEY MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. BEST CHANCE
OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER AS WE MOVE LATER ON INTO THE AFTERNOON WILL
BE IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S
AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ALREADY INTO THE LOWER 80S MAY PRODUCE A
POP UP SHOWER.

FOR THIS UPDATE...TOOK OUT THUNDER FROM THE GRIDS AS 12Z ALBANY
AND 12Z BUFFALO UPPER AIR DATA SHOWS LITTLE TO NO SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY
OVER OUR REGION OR ADVECTING INTO OUR REGION FROM THE WEST AS WE
GO LATER ON IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S IN HIGH TERRAIN TO LOWER AND MID 80S FOR
VALLEY LOCATIONS.

AS TEMPERATURES COOL PAST THE CROSSOVER TEMPERATURE...PATCHY FOG
IN VALLEY LOCATIONS IS EXPECTED...OTHERWISE A RATHER MUGGY EVENING
WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER AND MID
60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS THE FA THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY AS WE GO FROM INTO THE MID WEEK PERIOD.
DESPITE THE HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S WITH HIGHS
ON MONDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 90. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT ARE
ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S WITH HIGHS ON
TUESDAY IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. DEWPOINTS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE 60S MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH MOST
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

THE COMBINATION OF HIGH MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS...850 TEMPS IN THE
+16 TO +18 C RANGE...AND A LOW LEVEL NORTHWEST WIND FLOW SHOULD
ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH AT LEAST THE LOWER 90S WITHIN MUCH OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FOR WED AND THU...85-90 IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY
REGION...WITH 80S FOR MOST HIGHER TERRAIN...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE
HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SW VT MAY REMAIN
SLIGHTLY COOLER...AROUND 80. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE
MODERATE...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. THIS SHOULD ALLOW HEAT INDICES
BOTH DAYS TO REACH INTO THE MID TO PERHAPS UPPER 90S WITHIN THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND LOWER 90S ELSEWHERE. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS
FOR WED NT/THU AM AND THU NT/FRI AM SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE 60S.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY APPROACH FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST
SOMETIME LATE WED INTO THU. IN ADDITION...A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY SETTLE SOUTHWEST INTO THE
FORECAST AREA ON FRI. OVERALL FORCING WITH THESE FEATURES SHOULD
REMAIN WEAK...HOWEVER THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY WORKING
IN TANDEM WITH THE WEAK FORCING TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ESP THU AND FRI. FRI MAX TEMPS MAY
BE SLIGHTLY COOLER DUE TO MORE CLOUDS...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION...WITH 80S FOR MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND MID 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

MODELS SUGGEST THAT A SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHEAST OR EAST FOR LATE FRI INTO SAT...WITH THE POSSIBLE BACKDOOR
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING WEST AND SOUTH OF THE REGION. WILL
INDICATE DRY CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...ALONG WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS...ALBEIT STILL ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS ON SAT RANGING FROM 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...TO THE
LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS. FRI NT/SAT AM MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO
THE LOWER 60S IN LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH...EXPECT PLENTY OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS...SUCH AS KPOU...THIS AFTERNOON. THERE COULD
BE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER AS WELL WITHIN THESE SHOWERS...BUT
OVERALL PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS
TIME. FURTHER NORTH...AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO COULD REACH KALB AND
KPSF THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL...BUT CHANCES APPEAR LOW ENOUGH TO NOT
INCLUDE MENTION AT THIS TIME.

OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MOST OF
SUNDAY AFTER ANY PATCHY LOW CLOUDS/FOG BURNS OFF AT KPSF BY
13Z/SUN. THERE WILL BE BKN-OVC MID LEVEL CLOUDS MUCH OF THE
DAY...BEFORE POSSIBLY THINNING OUT LATER IN THE DAY FROM NW TO
SE.

FOR TONIGHT...THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT FROM
NW TO SE. A PERIOD OF RADIATIONAL COOLING MAY ALLOW PATCHY FOG TO
DEVELOP TOWARD OR AFTER 06Z/MON...ESP AT KGFL AND KPSF. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT OF IFR AT
KPSF AFTER 07Z/MON.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-WED NIGHT: PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT/EARLY IN THE AM.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING CLOUDS AS WELL
AS ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. AFTERWARD...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME SITUATED OVER THE REGION
FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...ALLOWING FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED LEVELS OF HUMIDITY.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL DROP TO 40 TO 60 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...RECOVER TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH HEAVY DEW
FORMATION AND DROP TO 40 TO 65 PERCENT MONDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH TODAY...LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TONIGHT...AND WEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

NO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO FALL FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
FIVE DAYS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

RIVER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR
AUGUST...AND IF ANYTHING...MIGHT DROP A LITTLE MORE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/11
NEAR TERM...LFM
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11




000
FXUS61 KALY 301722
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
122 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING CLOUDS AS WELL
AS ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. AFTERWARD...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME SITUATED OVER THE REGION
FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...ALLOWING FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED LEVELS OF HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 120 PM EDT...PATCHY CLOUDS CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD OVER
PORTIONS OF THE ENTIRE REGION. RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE
AS THEY MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. BEST CHANCE
OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER AS WE MOVE LATER ON INTO THE AFTERNOON WILL
BE IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S
AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ALREADY INTO THE LOWER 80S MAY PRODUCE A
POP UP SHOWER.

FOR THIS UPDATE...TOOK OUT THUNDER FROM THE GRIDS AS 12Z ALBANY
AND 12Z BUFFALO UPPER AIR DATA SHOWS LITTLE TO NO SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY
OVER OUR REGION OR ADVECTING INTO OUR REGION FROM THE WEST AS WE
GO LATER ON IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S IN HIGH TERRAIN TO LOWER AND MID 80S FOR
VALLEY LOCATIONS.

AS TEMPERATURES COOL PAST THE CROSSOVER TEMPERATURE...PATCHY FOG
IN VALLEY LOCATIONS IS EXPECTED...OTHERWISE A RATHER MUGGY EVENING
WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER AND MID
60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS THE FA THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY AS WE GO FROM INTO THE MID WEEK PERIOD.
DESPITE THE HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S WITH HIGHS
ON MONDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 90. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT ARE
ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S WITH HIGHS ON
TUESDAY IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. DEWPOINTS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE 60S MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH MOST
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

THE COMBINATION OF HIGH MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS...850 TEMPS IN THE
+16 TO +18 C RANGE...AND A LOW LEVEL NORTHWEST WIND FLOW SHOULD
ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH AT LEAST THE LOWER 90S WITHIN MUCH OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FOR WED AND THU...85-90 IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY
REGION...WITH 80S FOR MOST HIGHER TERRAIN...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE
HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SW VT MAY REMAIN
SLIGHTLY COOLER...AROUND 80. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE
MODERATE...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. THIS SHOULD ALLOW HEAT INDICES
BOTH DAYS TO REACH INTO THE MID TO PERHAPS UPPER 90S WITHIN THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND LOWER 90S ELSEWHERE. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS
FOR WED NT/THU AM AND THU NT/FRI AM SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE 60S.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY APPROACH FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST
SOMETIME LATE WED INTO THU. IN ADDITION...A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY SETTLE SOUTHWEST INTO THE
FORECAST AREA ON FRI. OVERALL FORCING WITH THESE FEATURES SHOULD
REMAIN WEAK...HOWEVER THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY WORKING
IN TANDEM WITH THE WEAK FORCING TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ESP THU AND FRI. FRI MAX TEMPS MAY
BE SLIGHTLY COOLER DUE TO MORE CLOUDS...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION...WITH 80S FOR MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND MID 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

MODELS SUGGEST THAT A SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHEAST OR EAST FOR LATE FRI INTO SAT...WITH THE POSSIBLE BACKDOOR
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING WEST AND SOUTH OF THE REGION. WILL
INDICATE DRY CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...ALONG WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS...ALBEIT STILL ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS ON SAT RANGING FROM 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...TO THE
LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS. FRI NT/SAT AM MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO
THE LOWER 60S IN LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH...EXPECT PLENTY OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS...SUCH AS KPOU...THIS AFTERNOON. THERE COULD
BE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER AS WELL WITHIN THESE SHOWERS...BUT
OVERALL PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS
TIME. FURTHER NORTH...AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO COULD REACH KALB AND
KPSF THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL...BUT CHANCES APPEAR LOW ENOUGH TO NOT
INCLUDE MENTION AT THIS TIME.

OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MOST OF
SUNDAY AFTER ANY PATCHY LOW CLOUDS/FOG BURNS OFF AT KPSF BY
13Z/SUN. THERE WILL BE BKN-OVC MID LEVEL CLOUDS MUCH OF THE
DAY...BEFORE POSSIBLY THINNING OUT LATER IN THE DAY FROM NW TO
SE.

FOR TONIGHT...THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT FROM
NW TO SE. A PERIOD OF RADIATIONAL COOLING MAY ALLOW PATCHY FOG TO
DEVELOP TOWARD OR AFTER 06Z/MON...ESP AT KGFL AND KPSF. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT OF IFR AT
KPSF AFTER 07Z/MON.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-WED NIGHT: PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT/EARLY IN THE AM.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING CLOUDS AS WELL
AS ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. AFTERWARD...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME SITUATED OVER THE REGION
FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...ALLOWING FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED LEVELS OF HUMIDITY.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL DROP TO 40 TO 60 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...RECOVER TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH HEAVY DEW
FORMATION AND DROP TO 40 TO 65 PERCENT MONDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH TODAY...LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TONIGHT...AND WEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

NO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO FALL FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
FIVE DAYS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

RIVER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR
AUGUST...AND IF ANYTHING...MIGHT DROP A LITTLE MORE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/11
NEAR TERM...LFM
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11



000
FXUS61 KBOX 301717
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
117 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY
A BRIEF SHOWER TODAY...OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND
THROUGH MONDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER
WEATHER TUESDAY...MAINLY NEAR THE COAST...BEFORE HOT WEATHER
RETURNS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD
BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER FRIDAY AND INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL MOST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
115 PM UPDATE...THE FORECAST IS LARGELY ON TRACK. MADE A FEW
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO NEAR TERM TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER
FORECASTS. THERE ARE A COUPLE OF SHOWERS STARTING TO POP IN
CENTRAL NY/NJ. A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON.

WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS TODAY
AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION. WE EXPECT
PARTIAL SUNSHINE AT TIMES BUT ALSO MOCLDY PERIODS. MODELS DO SHOW
INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN AS PWATS INCREASE TO 1.5" AND
KI VALUES INCREASE INTO THE LOWER 30S BUT THERE IS LITTLE TO NO
INSTABILITY. WHILE MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY...CANT RULE OUT A
FEW BRIEF SHOWERS DEVELOPING WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE
AXIS AS MOISTURE MOVES INTO SNE BUT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SHOULD BE
LIMITED. WE HAVE SLIGHT CHC POPS. FOLLOWED A BLEND OF ALL
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE WHICH BRINGS MAX TEMPS INTO THE MID 80S WHICH
IS IN LINE WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 15C. COOLER TEMPS IMMEDIATE
SOUTH COAST AND HIGHER TERRAIN. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL INCREASE
SLIGHTLY WITH DEWPOINTS UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...
THETA-E RIDGE AND KI AXIS WILL BE ACROSS SNE DURING THE FIRST HALF
OF TONIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING SWD LATE TONIGHT. LOW PROB OF A BRIEF
SHOWER IN THE EVENING...OTHERWISE DRY. THERE IS SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER FOR MOCLDY SKIES WITH PARTIAL
CLEARING MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH OVERNIGHT. CLOUD COVER AND
HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN A MID NIGHT WITH MINS MOSTLY IN
THE 60S...AND NEAR 70 BOS/PVD AND COASTAL LOCATIONS.

MONDAY...
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE NW AS NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DROPS SE
ACROSS MARITIMES WITH COLD FRONT MOVING SWD INTO MAINE. MODELS
SHOW MARGINAL INSTABILITY DEVELOPING...BUT LOTS OF MID LEVEL DRY
AIR AND LOWER KI VALUES MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH SO IT SHOULD REMAIN
DRY WITH PT-MOSUNNY SKIES. 850 MB TEMPS 16-17C AND W/NW FLOW WILL
ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO APPROACH 90 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION...A BIT COOLER NEAR THE S COAST AND HIGHER TERRAIN.
INCREASING HUMIDITY AS WELL AS DEWPOINTS CLIMB INTO THE LOW AND
MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN HOT AND DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF WEEK
* BRIEF COOL DOWNS MAINLY IN EASTERN MA TUE AND AGAIN FRI

DETAILS...

ENSEMBLES AND 00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO GIVE US HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER EASTERN STATES THIS WEEK...
RESULTING IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF PERIOD WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER. HOTTEST DAYS LOOK TO BE WED AND THU WHEN HIGHS
SHOULD REACH WELL INTO 80S WITH LOWER 90S ACROSS PARTS OF CT AND
FROM MERRIMACK VALLEY INTO INTERIOR SE MA. NOT LOOKING FOR
OPPRESSIVELY HUMID CONDITIONS AS MEAN FLOW SHOULD KEEP DEWPOINTS IN
60S ALTHOUGH THEY WILL APPROACH 70 NEAR S COAST...CAPE COD AND
ISLANDS LATER IN WEEK.

MAIN ITEMS OF INTEREST ARE A COUPLE OF BACKDOOR FRONTS WHICH WILL
BRING SLIGHT COOLING TO E MA COAST. MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH TIMING OF FIRST FRONT TUE...WHICH EVENTUALLY LIFTS BACK N TUE
NIGHT AND WED. 2M TEMPERATURES SUGGEST IMMEDIATE E MA COAST SHOULD
STAY CLOSER TO 80...WHILE HIGHS REACH UPPER 80S IN W NEW ENGLAND.
RISING HEIGHTS AND ASSOCIATED WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT SHOULD ACT TO
SUPPRESS CONVECTION.

TIMING OF SECOND BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS LESS CERTAIN BUT LOOKS TO BE
CLOSER TO LATE THU OR FRI. THIS TIME THERE MAY BE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM SO KEPT THAT MENTION PER MODEL
CONSENSUS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN FACT RIDGE AXIS SHOULD SHIFT FARTHER S
AND W OF REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

VFR TODAY WITH CIGS AOA 060 AND BRIEF SPRINKLE POSSIBLE. LOCAL
MVFR/IFR VSBYS AGAIN LATER TONIGHT AND AGAIN MON NIGHT IN PATCHY
VALLEY FOG. VFR MON.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR. LOCAL MVFR/IFR IN EARLY MORNING PATCHY VALLEY FOG. ISOLATED
SHOWER/TSTM POSSIBLE THU.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH CONFIDENCE. GENERALLY SW WINDS 10-20 KT EXPECTED WITH SEAS
BELOW SCA.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH PERIOD WITH
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING MOST OF WEEK. BACKDOOR COLD FRONTS EXPECTED
TO DROP S ACROSS WATERS TUE AND AGAIN LATE THU...SHIFTING WINDS TO
E/NE MAINLY ON E MA WATERS...BUT DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC
NEAR TERM...KJC/RLG/JWD
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...JWD
AVIATION...RLG/JWD
MARINE...KJC/JWD



000
FXUS61 KBOX 301717
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
117 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY
A BRIEF SHOWER TODAY...OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND
THROUGH MONDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER
WEATHER TUESDAY...MAINLY NEAR THE COAST...BEFORE HOT WEATHER
RETURNS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD
BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER FRIDAY AND INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL MOST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
115 PM UPDATE...THE FORECAST IS LARGELY ON TRACK. MADE A FEW
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO NEAR TERM TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER
FORECASTS. THERE ARE A COUPLE OF SHOWERS STARTING TO POP IN
CENTRAL NY/NJ. A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON.

WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS TODAY
AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION. WE EXPECT
PARTIAL SUNSHINE AT TIMES BUT ALSO MOCLDY PERIODS. MODELS DO SHOW
INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN AS PWATS INCREASE TO 1.5" AND
KI VALUES INCREASE INTO THE LOWER 30S BUT THERE IS LITTLE TO NO
INSTABILITY. WHILE MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY...CANT RULE OUT A
FEW BRIEF SHOWERS DEVELOPING WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE
AXIS AS MOISTURE MOVES INTO SNE BUT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SHOULD BE
LIMITED. WE HAVE SLIGHT CHC POPS. FOLLOWED A BLEND OF ALL
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE WHICH BRINGS MAX TEMPS INTO THE MID 80S WHICH
IS IN LINE WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 15C. COOLER TEMPS IMMEDIATE
SOUTH COAST AND HIGHER TERRAIN. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL INCREASE
SLIGHTLY WITH DEWPOINTS UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...
THETA-E RIDGE AND KI AXIS WILL BE ACROSS SNE DURING THE FIRST HALF
OF TONIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING SWD LATE TONIGHT. LOW PROB OF A BRIEF
SHOWER IN THE EVENING...OTHERWISE DRY. THERE IS SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER FOR MOCLDY SKIES WITH PARTIAL
CLEARING MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH OVERNIGHT. CLOUD COVER AND
HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN A MID NIGHT WITH MINS MOSTLY IN
THE 60S...AND NEAR 70 BOS/PVD AND COASTAL LOCATIONS.

MONDAY...
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE NW AS NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DROPS SE
ACROSS MARITIMES WITH COLD FRONT MOVING SWD INTO MAINE. MODELS
SHOW MARGINAL INSTABILITY DEVELOPING...BUT LOTS OF MID LEVEL DRY
AIR AND LOWER KI VALUES MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH SO IT SHOULD REMAIN
DRY WITH PT-MOSUNNY SKIES. 850 MB TEMPS 16-17C AND W/NW FLOW WILL
ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO APPROACH 90 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION...A BIT COOLER NEAR THE S COAST AND HIGHER TERRAIN.
INCREASING HUMIDITY AS WELL AS DEWPOINTS CLIMB INTO THE LOW AND
MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN HOT AND DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF WEEK
* BRIEF COOL DOWNS MAINLY IN EASTERN MA TUE AND AGAIN FRI

DETAILS...

ENSEMBLES AND 00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO GIVE US HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER EASTERN STATES THIS WEEK...
RESULTING IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF PERIOD WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER. HOTTEST DAYS LOOK TO BE WED AND THU WHEN HIGHS
SHOULD REACH WELL INTO 80S WITH LOWER 90S ACROSS PARTS OF CT AND
FROM MERRIMACK VALLEY INTO INTERIOR SE MA. NOT LOOKING FOR
OPPRESSIVELY HUMID CONDITIONS AS MEAN FLOW SHOULD KEEP DEWPOINTS IN
60S ALTHOUGH THEY WILL APPROACH 70 NEAR S COAST...CAPE COD AND
ISLANDS LATER IN WEEK.

MAIN ITEMS OF INTEREST ARE A COUPLE OF BACKDOOR FRONTS WHICH WILL
BRING SLIGHT COOLING TO E MA COAST. MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH TIMING OF FIRST FRONT TUE...WHICH EVENTUALLY LIFTS BACK N TUE
NIGHT AND WED. 2M TEMPERATURES SUGGEST IMMEDIATE E MA COAST SHOULD
STAY CLOSER TO 80...WHILE HIGHS REACH UPPER 80S IN W NEW ENGLAND.
RISING HEIGHTS AND ASSOCIATED WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT SHOULD ACT TO
SUPPRESS CONVECTION.

TIMING OF SECOND BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS LESS CERTAIN BUT LOOKS TO BE
CLOSER TO LATE THU OR FRI. THIS TIME THERE MAY BE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM SO KEPT THAT MENTION PER MODEL
CONSENSUS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN FACT RIDGE AXIS SHOULD SHIFT FARTHER S
AND W OF REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

VFR TODAY WITH CIGS AOA 060 AND BRIEF SPRINKLE POSSIBLE. LOCAL
MVFR/IFR VSBYS AGAIN LATER TONIGHT AND AGAIN MON NIGHT IN PATCHY
VALLEY FOG. VFR MON.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR. LOCAL MVFR/IFR IN EARLY MORNING PATCHY VALLEY FOG. ISOLATED
SHOWER/TSTM POSSIBLE THU.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH CONFIDENCE. GENERALLY SW WINDS 10-20 KT EXPECTED WITH SEAS
BELOW SCA.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH PERIOD WITH
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING MOST OF WEEK. BACKDOOR COLD FRONTS EXPECTED
TO DROP S ACROSS WATERS TUE AND AGAIN LATE THU...SHIFTING WINDS TO
E/NE MAINLY ON E MA WATERS...BUT DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC
NEAR TERM...KJC/RLG/JWD
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...JWD
AVIATION...RLG/JWD
MARINE...KJC/JWD



000
FXUS61 KBOX 301717
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
117 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY
A BRIEF SHOWER TODAY...OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND
THROUGH MONDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER
WEATHER TUESDAY...MAINLY NEAR THE COAST...BEFORE HOT WEATHER
RETURNS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD
BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER FRIDAY AND INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL MOST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
115 PM UPDATE...THE FORECAST IS LARGELY ON TRACK. MADE A FEW
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO NEAR TERM TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER
FORECASTS. THERE ARE A COUPLE OF SHOWERS STARTING TO POP IN
CENTRAL NY/NJ. A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON.

WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS TODAY
AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION. WE EXPECT
PARTIAL SUNSHINE AT TIMES BUT ALSO MOCLDY PERIODS. MODELS DO SHOW
INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN AS PWATS INCREASE TO 1.5" AND
KI VALUES INCREASE INTO THE LOWER 30S BUT THERE IS LITTLE TO NO
INSTABILITY. WHILE MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY...CANT RULE OUT A
FEW BRIEF SHOWERS DEVELOPING WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE
AXIS AS MOISTURE MOVES INTO SNE BUT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SHOULD BE
LIMITED. WE HAVE SLIGHT CHC POPS. FOLLOWED A BLEND OF ALL
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE WHICH BRINGS MAX TEMPS INTO THE MID 80S WHICH
IS IN LINE WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 15C. COOLER TEMPS IMMEDIATE
SOUTH COAST AND HIGHER TERRAIN. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL INCREASE
SLIGHTLY WITH DEWPOINTS UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...
THETA-E RIDGE AND KI AXIS WILL BE ACROSS SNE DURING THE FIRST HALF
OF TONIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING SWD LATE TONIGHT. LOW PROB OF A BRIEF
SHOWER IN THE EVENING...OTHERWISE DRY. THERE IS SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER FOR MOCLDY SKIES WITH PARTIAL
CLEARING MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH OVERNIGHT. CLOUD COVER AND
HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN A MID NIGHT WITH MINS MOSTLY IN
THE 60S...AND NEAR 70 BOS/PVD AND COASTAL LOCATIONS.

MONDAY...
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE NW AS NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DROPS SE
ACROSS MARITIMES WITH COLD FRONT MOVING SWD INTO MAINE. MODELS
SHOW MARGINAL INSTABILITY DEVELOPING...BUT LOTS OF MID LEVEL DRY
AIR AND LOWER KI VALUES MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH SO IT SHOULD REMAIN
DRY WITH PT-MOSUNNY SKIES. 850 MB TEMPS 16-17C AND W/NW FLOW WILL
ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO APPROACH 90 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION...A BIT COOLER NEAR THE S COAST AND HIGHER TERRAIN.
INCREASING HUMIDITY AS WELL AS DEWPOINTS CLIMB INTO THE LOW AND
MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN HOT AND DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF WEEK
* BRIEF COOL DOWNS MAINLY IN EASTERN MA TUE AND AGAIN FRI

DETAILS...

ENSEMBLES AND 00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO GIVE US HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER EASTERN STATES THIS WEEK...
RESULTING IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF PERIOD WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER. HOTTEST DAYS LOOK TO BE WED AND THU WHEN HIGHS
SHOULD REACH WELL INTO 80S WITH LOWER 90S ACROSS PARTS OF CT AND
FROM MERRIMACK VALLEY INTO INTERIOR SE MA. NOT LOOKING FOR
OPPRESSIVELY HUMID CONDITIONS AS MEAN FLOW SHOULD KEEP DEWPOINTS IN
60S ALTHOUGH THEY WILL APPROACH 70 NEAR S COAST...CAPE COD AND
ISLANDS LATER IN WEEK.

MAIN ITEMS OF INTEREST ARE A COUPLE OF BACKDOOR FRONTS WHICH WILL
BRING SLIGHT COOLING TO E MA COAST. MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH TIMING OF FIRST FRONT TUE...WHICH EVENTUALLY LIFTS BACK N TUE
NIGHT AND WED. 2M TEMPERATURES SUGGEST IMMEDIATE E MA COAST SHOULD
STAY CLOSER TO 80...WHILE HIGHS REACH UPPER 80S IN W NEW ENGLAND.
RISING HEIGHTS AND ASSOCIATED WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT SHOULD ACT TO
SUPPRESS CONVECTION.

TIMING OF SECOND BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS LESS CERTAIN BUT LOOKS TO BE
CLOSER TO LATE THU OR FRI. THIS TIME THERE MAY BE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM SO KEPT THAT MENTION PER MODEL
CONSENSUS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN FACT RIDGE AXIS SHOULD SHIFT FARTHER S
AND W OF REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

VFR TODAY WITH CIGS AOA 060 AND BRIEF SPRINKLE POSSIBLE. LOCAL
MVFR/IFR VSBYS AGAIN LATER TONIGHT AND AGAIN MON NIGHT IN PATCHY
VALLEY FOG. VFR MON.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR. LOCAL MVFR/IFR IN EARLY MORNING PATCHY VALLEY FOG. ISOLATED
SHOWER/TSTM POSSIBLE THU.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH CONFIDENCE. GENERALLY SW WINDS 10-20 KT EXPECTED WITH SEAS
BELOW SCA.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH PERIOD WITH
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING MOST OF WEEK. BACKDOOR COLD FRONTS EXPECTED
TO DROP S ACROSS WATERS TUE AND AGAIN LATE THU...SHIFTING WINDS TO
E/NE MAINLY ON E MA WATERS...BUT DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC
NEAR TERM...KJC/RLG/JWD
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...JWD
AVIATION...RLG/JWD
MARINE...KJC/JWD



000
FXUS61 KBOX 301717
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
117 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY
A BRIEF SHOWER TODAY...OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND
THROUGH MONDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER
WEATHER TUESDAY...MAINLY NEAR THE COAST...BEFORE HOT WEATHER
RETURNS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD
BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER FRIDAY AND INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL MOST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
115 PM UPDATE...THE FORECAST IS LARGELY ON TRACK. MADE A FEW
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO NEAR TERM TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER
FORECASTS. THERE ARE A COUPLE OF SHOWERS STARTING TO POP IN
CENTRAL NY/NJ. A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON.

WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS TODAY
AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION. WE EXPECT
PARTIAL SUNSHINE AT TIMES BUT ALSO MOCLDY PERIODS. MODELS DO SHOW
INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN AS PWATS INCREASE TO 1.5" AND
KI VALUES INCREASE INTO THE LOWER 30S BUT THERE IS LITTLE TO NO
INSTABILITY. WHILE MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY...CANT RULE OUT A
FEW BRIEF SHOWERS DEVELOPING WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE
AXIS AS MOISTURE MOVES INTO SNE BUT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SHOULD BE
LIMITED. WE HAVE SLIGHT CHC POPS. FOLLOWED A BLEND OF ALL
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE WHICH BRINGS MAX TEMPS INTO THE MID 80S WHICH
IS IN LINE WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 15C. COOLER TEMPS IMMEDIATE
SOUTH COAST AND HIGHER TERRAIN. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL INCREASE
SLIGHTLY WITH DEWPOINTS UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...
THETA-E RIDGE AND KI AXIS WILL BE ACROSS SNE DURING THE FIRST HALF
OF TONIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING SWD LATE TONIGHT. LOW PROB OF A BRIEF
SHOWER IN THE EVENING...OTHERWISE DRY. THERE IS SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER FOR MOCLDY SKIES WITH PARTIAL
CLEARING MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH OVERNIGHT. CLOUD COVER AND
HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN A MID NIGHT WITH MINS MOSTLY IN
THE 60S...AND NEAR 70 BOS/PVD AND COASTAL LOCATIONS.

MONDAY...
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE NW AS NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DROPS SE
ACROSS MARITIMES WITH COLD FRONT MOVING SWD INTO MAINE. MODELS
SHOW MARGINAL INSTABILITY DEVELOPING...BUT LOTS OF MID LEVEL DRY
AIR AND LOWER KI VALUES MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH SO IT SHOULD REMAIN
DRY WITH PT-MOSUNNY SKIES. 850 MB TEMPS 16-17C AND W/NW FLOW WILL
ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO APPROACH 90 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION...A BIT COOLER NEAR THE S COAST AND HIGHER TERRAIN.
INCREASING HUMIDITY AS WELL AS DEWPOINTS CLIMB INTO THE LOW AND
MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN HOT AND DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF WEEK
* BRIEF COOL DOWNS MAINLY IN EASTERN MA TUE AND AGAIN FRI

DETAILS...

ENSEMBLES AND 00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO GIVE US HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER EASTERN STATES THIS WEEK...
RESULTING IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF PERIOD WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER. HOTTEST DAYS LOOK TO BE WED AND THU WHEN HIGHS
SHOULD REACH WELL INTO 80S WITH LOWER 90S ACROSS PARTS OF CT AND
FROM MERRIMACK VALLEY INTO INTERIOR SE MA. NOT LOOKING FOR
OPPRESSIVELY HUMID CONDITIONS AS MEAN FLOW SHOULD KEEP DEWPOINTS IN
60S ALTHOUGH THEY WILL APPROACH 70 NEAR S COAST...CAPE COD AND
ISLANDS LATER IN WEEK.

MAIN ITEMS OF INTEREST ARE A COUPLE OF BACKDOOR FRONTS WHICH WILL
BRING SLIGHT COOLING TO E MA COAST. MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH TIMING OF FIRST FRONT TUE...WHICH EVENTUALLY LIFTS BACK N TUE
NIGHT AND WED. 2M TEMPERATURES SUGGEST IMMEDIATE E MA COAST SHOULD
STAY CLOSER TO 80...WHILE HIGHS REACH UPPER 80S IN W NEW ENGLAND.
RISING HEIGHTS AND ASSOCIATED WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT SHOULD ACT TO
SUPPRESS CONVECTION.

TIMING OF SECOND BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS LESS CERTAIN BUT LOOKS TO BE
CLOSER TO LATE THU OR FRI. THIS TIME THERE MAY BE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM SO KEPT THAT MENTION PER MODEL
CONSENSUS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN FACT RIDGE AXIS SHOULD SHIFT FARTHER S
AND W OF REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

VFR TODAY WITH CIGS AOA 060 AND BRIEF SPRINKLE POSSIBLE. LOCAL
MVFR/IFR VSBYS AGAIN LATER TONIGHT AND AGAIN MON NIGHT IN PATCHY
VALLEY FOG. VFR MON.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR. LOCAL MVFR/IFR IN EARLY MORNING PATCHY VALLEY FOG. ISOLATED
SHOWER/TSTM POSSIBLE THU.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH CONFIDENCE. GENERALLY SW WINDS 10-20 KT EXPECTED WITH SEAS
BELOW SCA.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH PERIOD WITH
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING MOST OF WEEK. BACKDOOR COLD FRONTS EXPECTED
TO DROP S ACROSS WATERS TUE AND AGAIN LATE THU...SHIFTING WINDS TO
E/NE MAINLY ON E MA WATERS...BUT DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC
NEAR TERM...KJC/RLG/JWD
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...JWD
AVIATION...RLG/JWD
MARINE...KJC/JWD



000
FXUS61 KBOX 301402
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1002 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY
A BRIEF SHOWER TODAY...OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND
THROUGH MONDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER
WEATHER TUESDAY...MAINLY NEAR THE COAST...BEFORE HOT WEATHER
RETURNS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD
BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER FRIDAY AND INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL MOST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE...THE FORECAST IS LARGELY ON TRACK. MADE A FEW MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO NEAR TERM TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER FORECASTS.

WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS TODAY
AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION. WE EXPECT
PARTIAL SUNSHINE AT TIMES BUT ALSO MOCLDY PERIODS. MODELS DO SHOW
INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN AS PWATS INCREASE TO 1.5" AND
KI VALUES INCREASE INTO THE LOWER 30S BUT THERE IS LITTLE TO NO
INSTABILITY. WHILE MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY...CANT RULE OUT A
FEW BRIEF SHOWERS DEVELOPING WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE
AXIS AS MOISTURE MOVES INTO SNE BUT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SHOULD BE
LIMITED. WE HAVE SLIGHT CHC POPS. FOLLOWED A BLEND OF ALL
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE WHICH BRINGS MAX TEMPS INTO THE MID 80S WHICH
IS IN LINE WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 15C. COOLER TEMPS IMMEDIATE
SOUTH COAST AND HIGHER TERRAIN. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL INCREASE
SLIGHTLY WITH DEWPOINTS UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...
THETA-E RIDGE AND KI AXIS WILL BE ACROSS SNE DURING THE FIRST HALF
OF TONIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING SWD LATE TONIGHT. LOW PROB OF A BRIEF
SHOWER IN THE EVENING...OTHERWISE DRY. THERE IS SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER FOR MOCLDY SKIES WITH PARTIAL
CLEARING MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH OVERNIGHT. CLOUD COVER AND
HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN A MID NIGHT WITH MINS MOSTLY IN
THE 60S...AND NEAR 70 BOS/PVD AND COASTAL LOCATIONS.

MONDAY...
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE NW AS NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DROPS SE
ACROSS MARITIMES WITH COLD FRONT MOVING SWD INTO MAINE. MODELS
SHOW MARGINAL INSTABILITY DEVELOPING...BUT LOTS OF MID LEVEL DRY
AIR AND LOWER KI VALUES MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH SO IT SHOULD REMAIN
DRY WITH PT-MOSUNNY SKIES. 850 MB TEMPS 16-17C AND W/NW FLOW WILL
ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO APPROACH 90 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION...A BIT COOLER NEAR THE S COAST AND HIGHER TERRAIN.
INCREASING HUMIDITY AS WELL AS DEWPOINTS CLIMB INTO THE LOW AND
MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN HOT AND DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF WEEK
* BRIEF COOL DOWNS MAINLY IN EASTERN MA TUE AND AGAIN FRI

DETAILS...

ENSEMBLES AND 00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO GIVE US HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER EASTERN STATES THIS WEEK...
RESULTING IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF PERIOD WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER. HOTTEST DAYS LOOK TO BE WED AND THU WHEN HIGHS
SHOULD REACH WELL INTO 80S WITH LOWER 90S ACROSS PARTS OF CT AND
FROM MERRIMACK VALLEY INTO INTERIOR SE MA. NOT LOOKING FOR
OPPRESSIVELY HUMID CONDITIONS AS MEAN FLOW SHOULD KEEP DEWPOINTS IN
60S ALTHOUGH THEY WILL APPROACH 70 NEAR S COAST...CAPE COD AND
ISLANDS LATER IN WEEK.

MAIN ITEMS OF INTEREST ARE A COUPLE OF BACKDOOR FRONTS WHICH WILL
BRING SLIGHT COOLING TO E MA COAST. MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH TIMING OF FIRST FRONT TUE...WHICH EVENTUALLY LIFTS BACK N TUE
NIGHT AND WED. 2M TEMPERATURES SUGGEST IMMEDIATE E MA COAST SHOULD
STAY CLOSER TO 80...WHILE HIGHS REACH UPPER 80S IN W NEW ENGLAND.
RISING HEIGHTS AND ASSOCIATED WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT SHOULD ACT TO
SUPPRESS CONVECTION.

TIMING OF SECOND BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS LESS CERTAIN BUT LOOKS TO BE
CLOSER TO LATE THU OR FRI. THIS TIME THERE MAY BE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM SO KEPT THAT MENTION PER MODEL
CONSENSUS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN FACT RIDGE AXIS SHOULD SHIFT FARTHER S
AND W OF REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MONDAY.

PATCHY FOG WITH MVFR/IFR VSBYS WILL LIFT BY 13Z. OTHERWISE VFR
TODAY WITH CIGS AOA 060 AND BRIEF SPRINKLE POSSIBLE. LOCAL
MVFR/IFR VSBYS AGAIN LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY MON IN PATCHY VALLEY
FOG. VFR MON.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR. LOCAL MVFR/IFR IN EARLY MORNING PATCHY VALLEY FOG. ISOLATED
SHOWER/TSTM POSSIBLE THU.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH CONFIDENCE. GENERALLY SW WINDS 10-20 KT EXPECTED WITH SEAS
BELOW SCA.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH PERIOD WITH
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING MOST OF WEEK. BACKDOOR COLD FRONTS EXPECTED
TO DROP S ACROSS WATERS TUE AND AGAIN LATE THU...SHIFTING WINDS TO
E/NE MAINLY ON E MA WATERS...BUT DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC
NEAR TERM...KJC/RLG/JWD
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...JWD
AVIATION...KJC/JWD
MARINE...KJC/JWD




000
FXUS61 KALY 301347
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
936 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING CLOUDS AS WELL
AS ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. AFTERWARD...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME SITUATED OVER THE REGION
FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...ALLOWING FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED LEVELS OF HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 AM EDT...CLOUDS CONTINUED TO INCREASE FROM I-90
SOUTH ACROSS OUR REGION. RADARS NOW INDICATED A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS WIDELY SCATTERED OVER THE SAME AREA. THIS DISTURBED
WEATHER WAS THE RESULT OF A WEAK WARM FRONT.

FOR THIS UPDATE...ONLY MINOR TWEAKS...STARTING POPS A LITTLE
SOONER DUE TO ACTUAL COVERAGE. THOUGHT ABOUT LOWERING
TEMPERATURES MORE...BUT STILL POSSIBLE SOME BREAKS COULD RAISE
TEMPS UP TO ADVERTISED LEVELS.


FOR THE REST OF TODAY..EXPECT MORE CLOUDS THAN SUNSHINE ALONG WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
FORECAST AREA (FA). THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST
PORTION OF THE FA. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT
MOVING ACROSS THE FA. DESPITE THE FACT THAT IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO POP
ANY CONVECTION ACROSS THE FA WITH A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN
PLACE. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE INTO THE FA FROM
THE WEST BEFORE THEY WEAKEN AS INDICATED BY CURRENT RADAR TRENDS.
HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S MAKING IT FEEL A LITTLE
UNCOMFORTABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS THE FA THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY AS WE GO FROM INTO THE MID WEEK PERIOD.
DESPITE THE HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S WITH HIGHS
ON MONDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 90. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT ARE
ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S WITH HIGHS ON
TUESDAY IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. DEWPOINTS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE 60S MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH MOST
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

THE COMBINATION OF HIGH MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS...850 TEMPS IN THE
+16 TO +18 C RANGE...AND A LOW LEVEL NORTHWEST WIND FLOW SHOULD
ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH AT LEAST THE LOWER 90S WITHIN MUCH OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FOR WED AND THU...85-90 IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY
REGION...WITH 80S FOR MOST HIGHER TERRAIN...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE
HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SW VT MAY REMAIN
SLIGHTLY COOLER...AROUND 80. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE
MODERATE...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. THIS SHOULD ALLOW HEAT INDICES
BOTH DAYS TO REACH INTO THE MID TO PERHAPS UPPER 90S WITHIN THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND LOWER 90S ELSEWHERE. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS
FOR WED NT/THU AM AND THU NT/FRI AM SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE 60S.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY APPROACH FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST
SOMETIME LATE WED INTO THU. IN ADDITION...A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY SETTLE SOUTHWEST INTO THE
FORECAST AREA ON FRI. OVERALL FORCING WITH THESE FEATURES SHOULD
REMAIN WEAK...HOWEVER THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY WORKING
IN TANDEM WITH THE WEAK FORCING TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ESP THU AND FRI. FRI MAX TEMPS MAY
BE SLIGHTLY COOLER DUE TO MORE CLOUDS...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION...WITH 80S FOR MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND MID 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

MODELS SUGGEST THAT A SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHEAST OR EAST FOR LATE FRI INTO SAT...WITH THE POSSIBLE BACKDOOR
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING WEST AND SOUTH OF THE REGION. WILL
INDICATE DRY CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...ALONG WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS...ALBEIT STILL ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS ON SAT RANGING FROM 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...TO THE
LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS. FRI NT/SAT AM MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO
THE LOWER 60S IN LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH...EXPECT PLENTY OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS...SUCH AS KPOU...THIS AFTERNOON. THERE COULD
BE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER AS WELL WITHIN THESE SHOWERS...BUT
OVERALL PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS
TIME. FURTHER NORTH...AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO COULD REACH KALB AND
KPSF THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL...BUT CHANCES APPEAR LOW ENOUGH TO NOT
INCLUDE MENTION AT THIS TIME.

OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MOST OF
SUNDAY AFTER ANY PATCHY LOW CLOUDS/FOG BURNS OFF AT KPSF BY
13Z/SUN. THERE WILL BE BKN-OVC MID LEVEL CLOUDS MUCH OF THE
DAY...BEFORE POSSIBLY THINNING OUT LATER IN THE DAY FROM NW TO
SE.

FOR TONIGHT...THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT FROM
NW TO SE. A PERIOD OF RADIATIONAL COOLING MAY ALLOW PATCHY FOG TO
DEVELOP TOWARD OR AFTER 06Z/MON...ESP AT KGFL AND KPSF. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT OF IFR AT
KPSF AFTER 07Z/MON.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-WED NIGHT: PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT/EARLY IN THE AM.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING CLOUDS AS WELL
AS ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. AFTERWARD...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME SITUATED OVER THE REGION
FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...ALLOWING FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED LEVELS OF HUMIDITY.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL DROP TO 40 TO 60 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...RECOVER TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH HEAVY DEW
FORMATION AND DROP TO 40 TO 65 PERCENT MONDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH TODAY...LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TONIGHT...AND WEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

NO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO FALL FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
FIVE DAYS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

RIVER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR
AUGUST...AND IF ANYTHING...MIGHT DROP A LITTLE MORE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/11
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11



000
FXUS61 KALY 301347
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
936 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING CLOUDS AS WELL
AS ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. AFTERWARD...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME SITUATED OVER THE REGION
FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...ALLOWING FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED LEVELS OF HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 AM EDT...CLOUDS CONTINUED TO INCREASE FROM I-90
SOUTH ACROSS OUR REGION. RADARS NOW INDICATED A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS WIDELY SCATTERED OVER THE SAME AREA. THIS DISTURBED
WEATHER WAS THE RESULT OF A WEAK WARM FRONT.

FOR THIS UPDATE...ONLY MINOR TWEAKS...STARTING POPS A LITTLE
SOONER DUE TO ACTUAL COVERAGE. THOUGHT ABOUT LOWERING
TEMPERATURES MORE...BUT STILL POSSIBLE SOME BREAKS COULD RAISE
TEMPS UP TO ADVERTISED LEVELS.


FOR THE REST OF TODAY..EXPECT MORE CLOUDS THAN SUNSHINE ALONG WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
FORECAST AREA (FA). THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST
PORTION OF THE FA. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT
MOVING ACROSS THE FA. DESPITE THE FACT THAT IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO POP
ANY CONVECTION ACROSS THE FA WITH A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN
PLACE. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE INTO THE FA FROM
THE WEST BEFORE THEY WEAKEN AS INDICATED BY CURRENT RADAR TRENDS.
HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S MAKING IT FEEL A LITTLE
UNCOMFORTABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS THE FA THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY AS WE GO FROM INTO THE MID WEEK PERIOD.
DESPITE THE HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S WITH HIGHS
ON MONDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 90. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT ARE
ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S WITH HIGHS ON
TUESDAY IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. DEWPOINTS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE 60S MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH MOST
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

THE COMBINATION OF HIGH MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS...850 TEMPS IN THE
+16 TO +18 C RANGE...AND A LOW LEVEL NORTHWEST WIND FLOW SHOULD
ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH AT LEAST THE LOWER 90S WITHIN MUCH OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FOR WED AND THU...85-90 IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY
REGION...WITH 80S FOR MOST HIGHER TERRAIN...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE
HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SW VT MAY REMAIN
SLIGHTLY COOLER...AROUND 80. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE
MODERATE...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. THIS SHOULD ALLOW HEAT INDICES
BOTH DAYS TO REACH INTO THE MID TO PERHAPS UPPER 90S WITHIN THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND LOWER 90S ELSEWHERE. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS
FOR WED NT/THU AM AND THU NT/FRI AM SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE 60S.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY APPROACH FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST
SOMETIME LATE WED INTO THU. IN ADDITION...A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY SETTLE SOUTHWEST INTO THE
FORECAST AREA ON FRI. OVERALL FORCING WITH THESE FEATURES SHOULD
REMAIN WEAK...HOWEVER THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY WORKING
IN TANDEM WITH THE WEAK FORCING TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ESP THU AND FRI. FRI MAX TEMPS MAY
BE SLIGHTLY COOLER DUE TO MORE CLOUDS...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION...WITH 80S FOR MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND MID 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

MODELS SUGGEST THAT A SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHEAST OR EAST FOR LATE FRI INTO SAT...WITH THE POSSIBLE BACKDOOR
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING WEST AND SOUTH OF THE REGION. WILL
INDICATE DRY CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...ALONG WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS...ALBEIT STILL ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS ON SAT RANGING FROM 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...TO THE
LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS. FRI NT/SAT AM MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO
THE LOWER 60S IN LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH...EXPECT PLENTY OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS...SUCH AS KPOU...THIS AFTERNOON. THERE COULD
BE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER AS WELL WITHIN THESE SHOWERS...BUT
OVERALL PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS
TIME. FURTHER NORTH...AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO COULD REACH KALB AND
KPSF THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL...BUT CHANCES APPEAR LOW ENOUGH TO NOT
INCLUDE MENTION AT THIS TIME.

OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MOST OF
SUNDAY AFTER ANY PATCHY LOW CLOUDS/FOG BURNS OFF AT KPSF BY
13Z/SUN. THERE WILL BE BKN-OVC MID LEVEL CLOUDS MUCH OF THE
DAY...BEFORE POSSIBLY THINNING OUT LATER IN THE DAY FROM NW TO
SE.

FOR TONIGHT...THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT FROM
NW TO SE. A PERIOD OF RADIATIONAL COOLING MAY ALLOW PATCHY FOG TO
DEVELOP TOWARD OR AFTER 06Z/MON...ESP AT KGFL AND KPSF. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT OF IFR AT
KPSF AFTER 07Z/MON.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-WED NIGHT: PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT/EARLY IN THE AM.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING CLOUDS AS WELL
AS ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. AFTERWARD...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME SITUATED OVER THE REGION
FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...ALLOWING FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED LEVELS OF HUMIDITY.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL DROP TO 40 TO 60 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...RECOVER TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH HEAVY DEW
FORMATION AND DROP TO 40 TO 65 PERCENT MONDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH TODAY...LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TONIGHT...AND WEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

NO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO FALL FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
FIVE DAYS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

RIVER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR
AUGUST...AND IF ANYTHING...MIGHT DROP A LITTLE MORE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/11
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11




000
FXUS61 KOKX 301129
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
729 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
TROUGH WHICH WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE THEN
PASSES TO THE NORTH ACROSS EASTERN CANADA ON MONDAY...SENDING A
WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO FORECAST BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

THE TREND WILL BE FOR WARMER AND INCREASINGLY MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS HEADING INTO THE NEW WEEK AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN U.S. MERGES WITH THE SUB TROPICAL RIDGE ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD. IN BETWEEN...A WEAKNESS ACROSS THE MID
SECTION OF THE COUNTRY WILL GRADUALLY FILL...WHILE A NORTHERN
STREAM SHORT WAVE TROF PASSES THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. AT THE
SURFACE...THIS WILL BE REFLECTED AS A SFC TROF OR WARM FRONT...
PRECEDED BY WEAK THERMAL FORCING. THIS FORCING COMBINED WITH
MARGINAL INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER AND/OR
THUNDERSTORM THIS AFT/EVE...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF NYC. CLOUDS
WILL ALSO SPREAD IN FROM THE NW TODAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS BY AFTERNOON INLAND AND PARTY SUNNY AT THE COAST.

HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S NEAR THE COAST...TO AROUND 90
INLAND,

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AFOREMENTIONED TROF/WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT WITH GRADUAL
CLEARING FROM NW TO SE BY MORNING. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO
EXPAND EASTWARD ON MON WITH WARMING TEMP PROFILES ALOFT AND A
GUSTY W/SW FLOW IN THE AFT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHS A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN ON SUN...WITH READINGS TOPPING OUT IN THE
LOWER 90S INLAND.

A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THEN PASSES THROUGH MON NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE PASSES WELL TO THE NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. NOT MUCH RELIEF THOUGH FOR TUE WITH PERHAPS A DEGREE
OR TWO SHAVED OFF OF MON HIGHS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO
MID 60S INLAND...TO 70 TO 75 NYC METRO. THESE READINGS ARE STILL
WELL ABOVE NORMAL. IT WILL ALSO BE MUGGY WITH DEW POINTS WELL INTO
THE 60S. HEAT INDEX VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA
AT THIS TIME.

WINDS BRIEFLY GO NW TUE MORNING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...BUT THEN
RETURN FROM THE S BY AFT AS THE FRONT LIFTS NWD AND DISSIPATES
NEARBY. SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL PUT A CAP ON ANY CONVECTION DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MAIN THEME OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE CONTINUATION OF
HEAT AND HUMIDITY ACROSS THE REGION.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE H5 PATTERN ACROSS NORTH
AMERICA INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OUT WEST MERGES WITH THE SUB TROP RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER THROUGH THU
POSSIBLY FRI. THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS WHICH IS CURRENTLY UNCERTAIN DUE TO
DIFFERENCES THAT DEVELOP IN THE H5 FLOW DURING THE LATTER PORTION
OF THE WEEK. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS OR TSTMS WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WHICH IS CURRENTLY SLATED FOR FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY DRY
CONDITIONS AND COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR THE
WEEKEND.

HIGHS WILL GENERALLY RANGE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...THE EXCEPTION FRI/SAT WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES IN/THROUGH THE AREA. HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE CLOSE TO THE AMBIENT AIR TEMP AND ARE NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED
TO REACH 95 DEGREES IN NYC THROUGH WED.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE TODAY. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL
CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

LIGHT SW FLOW THIS MORNING WITH SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT THIS AFTERNOON. A
FEW GUSTS TO 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE AT NYC TERMINALS AS WELL.

AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT NW OF NYC
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS VEER TO THE SW TONIGHT 5 TO 10 KT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.SUNDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...VFR. AFTERNOON SEABREEZES AT COASTAL
TERMINALS EACH DAY. SW GUSTS TO 20 KT NEAR CITY TERMINALS POSSIBLE
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
A RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD WITH SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WILL FEATURE
LATE AFT/EARLY EVE ENHANCEMENT OF THE SW FLOW FROM THE NY BIGHT
EAST ALONG THE OCEAN WATERS. THESE WINDS MAY GUSTS TO AROUND 20
KT WITH SEAS AS HIGH AS 4 FT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
ACROSS THE WATERS ON TUE WITH TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THROUGH THU.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A RECENT FULL MOON...BRIEF MINOR INUNDATION IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE ACROSS THE TYPICALLY VULNERABLE
COASTAL LOCALES INTO THE START OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...24/DW
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...24/DW
HYDROLOGY...DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KOKX 301129
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
729 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
TROUGH WHICH WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE THEN
PASSES TO THE NORTH ACROSS EASTERN CANADA ON MONDAY...SENDING A
WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO FORECAST BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

THE TREND WILL BE FOR WARMER AND INCREASINGLY MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS HEADING INTO THE NEW WEEK AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN U.S. MERGES WITH THE SUB TROPICAL RIDGE ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD. IN BETWEEN...A WEAKNESS ACROSS THE MID
SECTION OF THE COUNTRY WILL GRADUALLY FILL...WHILE A NORTHERN
STREAM SHORT WAVE TROF PASSES THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. AT THE
SURFACE...THIS WILL BE REFLECTED AS A SFC TROF OR WARM FRONT...
PRECEDED BY WEAK THERMAL FORCING. THIS FORCING COMBINED WITH
MARGINAL INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER AND/OR
THUNDERSTORM THIS AFT/EVE...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF NYC. CLOUDS
WILL ALSO SPREAD IN FROM THE NW TODAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS BY AFTERNOON INLAND AND PARTY SUNNY AT THE COAST.

HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S NEAR THE COAST...TO AROUND 90
INLAND,

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AFOREMENTIONED TROF/WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT WITH GRADUAL
CLEARING FROM NW TO SE BY MORNING. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO
EXPAND EASTWARD ON MON WITH WARMING TEMP PROFILES ALOFT AND A
GUSTY W/SW FLOW IN THE AFT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHS A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN ON SUN...WITH READINGS TOPPING OUT IN THE
LOWER 90S INLAND.

A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THEN PASSES THROUGH MON NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE PASSES WELL TO THE NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. NOT MUCH RELIEF THOUGH FOR TUE WITH PERHAPS A DEGREE
OR TWO SHAVED OFF OF MON HIGHS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO
MID 60S INLAND...TO 70 TO 75 NYC METRO. THESE READINGS ARE STILL
WELL ABOVE NORMAL. IT WILL ALSO BE MUGGY WITH DEW POINTS WELL INTO
THE 60S. HEAT INDEX VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA
AT THIS TIME.

WINDS BRIEFLY GO NW TUE MORNING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...BUT THEN
RETURN FROM THE S BY AFT AS THE FRONT LIFTS NWD AND DISSIPATES
NEARBY. SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL PUT A CAP ON ANY CONVECTION DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MAIN THEME OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE CONTINUATION OF
HEAT AND HUMIDITY ACROSS THE REGION.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE H5 PATTERN ACROSS NORTH
AMERICA INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OUT WEST MERGES WITH THE SUB TROP RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER THROUGH THU
POSSIBLY FRI. THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS WHICH IS CURRENTLY UNCERTAIN DUE TO
DIFFERENCES THAT DEVELOP IN THE H5 FLOW DURING THE LATTER PORTION
OF THE WEEK. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS OR TSTMS WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WHICH IS CURRENTLY SLATED FOR FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY DRY
CONDITIONS AND COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR THE
WEEKEND.

HIGHS WILL GENERALLY RANGE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...THE EXCEPTION FRI/SAT WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES IN/THROUGH THE AREA. HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE CLOSE TO THE AMBIENT AIR TEMP AND ARE NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED
TO REACH 95 DEGREES IN NYC THROUGH WED.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE TODAY. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL
CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

LIGHT SW FLOW THIS MORNING WITH SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT THIS AFTERNOON. A
FEW GUSTS TO 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE AT NYC TERMINALS AS WELL.

AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT NW OF NYC
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS VEER TO THE SW TONIGHT 5 TO 10 KT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.SUNDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...VFR. AFTERNOON SEABREEZES AT COASTAL
TERMINALS EACH DAY. SW GUSTS TO 20 KT NEAR CITY TERMINALS POSSIBLE
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
A RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD WITH SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WILL FEATURE
LATE AFT/EARLY EVE ENHANCEMENT OF THE SW FLOW FROM THE NY BIGHT
EAST ALONG THE OCEAN WATERS. THESE WINDS MAY GUSTS TO AROUND 20
KT WITH SEAS AS HIGH AS 4 FT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
ACROSS THE WATERS ON TUE WITH TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THROUGH THU.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A RECENT FULL MOON...BRIEF MINOR INUNDATION IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE ACROSS THE TYPICALLY VULNERABLE
COASTAL LOCALES INTO THE START OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...24/DW
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...24/DW
HYDROLOGY...DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KOKX 301129
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
729 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
TROUGH WHICH WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE THEN
PASSES TO THE NORTH ACROSS EASTERN CANADA ON MONDAY...SENDING A
WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO FORECAST BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

THE TREND WILL BE FOR WARMER AND INCREASINGLY MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS HEADING INTO THE NEW WEEK AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN U.S. MERGES WITH THE SUB TROPICAL RIDGE ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD. IN BETWEEN...A WEAKNESS ACROSS THE MID
SECTION OF THE COUNTRY WILL GRADUALLY FILL...WHILE A NORTHERN
STREAM SHORT WAVE TROF PASSES THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. AT THE
SURFACE...THIS WILL BE REFLECTED AS A SFC TROF OR WARM FRONT...
PRECEDED BY WEAK THERMAL FORCING. THIS FORCING COMBINED WITH
MARGINAL INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER AND/OR
THUNDERSTORM THIS AFT/EVE...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF NYC. CLOUDS
WILL ALSO SPREAD IN FROM THE NW TODAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS BY AFTERNOON INLAND AND PARTY SUNNY AT THE COAST.

HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S NEAR THE COAST...TO AROUND 90
INLAND,

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AFOREMENTIONED TROF/WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT WITH GRADUAL
CLEARING FROM NW TO SE BY MORNING. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO
EXPAND EASTWARD ON MON WITH WARMING TEMP PROFILES ALOFT AND A
GUSTY W/SW FLOW IN THE AFT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHS A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN ON SUN...WITH READINGS TOPPING OUT IN THE
LOWER 90S INLAND.

A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THEN PASSES THROUGH MON NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE PASSES WELL TO THE NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. NOT MUCH RELIEF THOUGH FOR TUE WITH PERHAPS A DEGREE
OR TWO SHAVED OFF OF MON HIGHS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO
MID 60S INLAND...TO 70 TO 75 NYC METRO. THESE READINGS ARE STILL
WELL ABOVE NORMAL. IT WILL ALSO BE MUGGY WITH DEW POINTS WELL INTO
THE 60S. HEAT INDEX VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA
AT THIS TIME.

WINDS BRIEFLY GO NW TUE MORNING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...BUT THEN
RETURN FROM THE S BY AFT AS THE FRONT LIFTS NWD AND DISSIPATES
NEARBY. SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL PUT A CAP ON ANY CONVECTION DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MAIN THEME OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE CONTINUATION OF
HEAT AND HUMIDITY ACROSS THE REGION.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE H5 PATTERN ACROSS NORTH
AMERICA INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OUT WEST MERGES WITH THE SUB TROP RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER THROUGH THU
POSSIBLY FRI. THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS WHICH IS CURRENTLY UNCERTAIN DUE TO
DIFFERENCES THAT DEVELOP IN THE H5 FLOW DURING THE LATTER PORTION
OF THE WEEK. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS OR TSTMS WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WHICH IS CURRENTLY SLATED FOR FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY DRY
CONDITIONS AND COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR THE
WEEKEND.

HIGHS WILL GENERALLY RANGE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...THE EXCEPTION FRI/SAT WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES IN/THROUGH THE AREA. HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE CLOSE TO THE AMBIENT AIR TEMP AND ARE NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED
TO REACH 95 DEGREES IN NYC THROUGH WED.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE TODAY. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL
CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

LIGHT SW FLOW THIS MORNING WITH SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT THIS AFTERNOON. A
FEW GUSTS TO 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE AT NYC TERMINALS AS WELL.

AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT NW OF NYC
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS VEER TO THE SW TONIGHT 5 TO 10 KT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.SUNDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...VFR. AFTERNOON SEABREEZES AT COASTAL
TERMINALS EACH DAY. SW GUSTS TO 20 KT NEAR CITY TERMINALS POSSIBLE
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
A RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD WITH SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WILL FEATURE
LATE AFT/EARLY EVE ENHANCEMENT OF THE SW FLOW FROM THE NY BIGHT
EAST ALONG THE OCEAN WATERS. THESE WINDS MAY GUSTS TO AROUND 20
KT WITH SEAS AS HIGH AS 4 FT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
ACROSS THE WATERS ON TUE WITH TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THROUGH THU.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A RECENT FULL MOON...BRIEF MINOR INUNDATION IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE ACROSS THE TYPICALLY VULNERABLE
COASTAL LOCALES INTO THE START OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...24/DW
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...24/DW
HYDROLOGY...DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KBOX 301050
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
650 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY
A BRIEF SHOWER TODAY...OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND
THROUGH MONDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER
WEATHER TUESDAY...MAINLY NEAR THE COAST...BEFORE HOT WEATHER
RETURNS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD
BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER FRIDAY AND INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL MOST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
650 AM UPDATE...

FORECAST ON TRACK AND ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE.

WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS TODAY
AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION. WE EXPECT
PARTIAL SUNSHINE AT TIMES BUT ALSO MOCLDY PERIODS. MODELS DO SHOW
INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN AS PWATS INCREASE TO 1.5" AND
KI VALUES INCREASE INTO THE LOWER 30S BUT THERE IS LITTLE TO NO
INSTABILITY. WHILE MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY...CANT RULE OUT A
FEW BRIEF SHOWERS DEVELOPING WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE
AXIS AS MOISTURE MOVES INTO SNE BUT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SHOULD BE
LIMITED. WE HAVE SLIGHT CHC POPS. FOLLOWED A BLEND OF ALL
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE WHICH BRINGS MAX TEMPS INTO THE MID 80S WHICH
IS IN LINE WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 15C. COOLER TEMPS IMMEDIATE
SOUTH COAST AND HIGHER TERRAIN. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL INCREASE
SLIGHTLY WITH DEWPOINTS UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...
THETA-E RIDGE AND KI AXIS WILL BE ACROSS SNE DURING THE FIRST HALF
OF TONIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING SWD LATE TONIGHT. LOW PROB OF A BRIEF
SHOWER IN THE EVENING...OTHERWISE DRY. THERE IS SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER FOR MOCLDY SKIES WITH PARTIAL
CLEARING MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH OVERNIGHT. CLOUD COVER AND
HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN A MID NIGHT WITH MINS MOSTLY IN
THE 60S...AND NEAR 70 BOS/PVD AND COASTAL LOCATIONS.

MONDAY...
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE NW AS NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DROPS SE
ACROSS MARITIMES WITH COLD FRONT MOVING SWD INTO MAINE. MODELS
SHOW MARGINAL INSTABILITY DEVELOPING...BUT LOTS OF MID LEVEL DRY
AIR AND LOWER KI VALUES MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH SO IT SHOULD REMAIN
DRY WITH PT-MOSUNNY SKIES. 850 MB TEMPS 16-17C AND W/NW FLOW WILL
ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO APPROACH 90 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION...A BIT COOLER NEAR THE S COAST AND HIGHER TERRAIN.
INCREASING HUMIDITY AS WELL AS DEWPOINTS CLIMB INTO THE LOW AND
MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN HOT AND DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF WEEK
* BRIEF COOL DOWNS MAINLY IN EASTERN MA TUE AND AGAIN FRI

DETAILS...

ENSEMBLES AND 00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO GIVE US HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER EASTERN STATES THIS WEEK...
RESULTING IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF PERIOD WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER. HOTTEST DAYS LOOK TO BE WED AND THU WHEN HIGHS
SHOULD REACH WELL INTO 80S WITH LOWER 90S ACROSS PARTS OF CT AND
FROM MERRIMACK VALLEY INTO INTERIOR SE MA. NOT LOOKING FOR
OPPRESSIVELY HUMID CONDITIONS AS MEAN FLOW SHOULD KEEP DEWPOINTS IN
60S ALTHOUGH THEY WILL APPROACH 70 NEAR S COAST...CAPE COD AND
ISLANDS LATER IN WEEK.

MAIN ITEMS OF INTEREST ARE A COUPLE OF BACKDOOR FRONTS WHICH WILL
BRING SLIGHT COOLING TO E MA COAST. MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH TIMING OF FIRST FRONT TUE...WHICH EVENTUALLY LIFTS BACK N TUE
NIGHT AND WED. 2M TEMPERATURES SUGGEST IMMEDIATE E MA COAST SHOULD
STAY CLOSER TO 80...WHILE HIGHS REACH UPPER 80S IN W NEW ENGLAND.
RISING HEIGHTS AND ASSOCIATED WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT SHOULD ACT TO
SUPPRESS CONVECTION.

TIMING OF SECOND BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS LESS CERTAIN BUT LOOKS TO BE
CLOSER TO LATE THU OR FRI. THIS TIME THERE MAY BE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM SO KEPT THAT MENTION PER MODEL
CONSENSUS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN FACT RIDGE AXIS SHOULD SHIFT FARTHER S
AND W OF REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MONDAY.

PATCHY FOG WITH MVFR/IFR VSBYS WILL LIFT BY 13Z. OTHERWISE VFR
TODAY WITH CIGS AOA 060 AND BRIEF SPRINKLE POSSIBLE. LOCAL
MVFR/IFR VSBYS AGAIN LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY MON IN PATCHY VALLEY
FOG. VFR MON.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR. LOCAL MVFR/IFR IN EARLY MORNING PATCHY VALLEY FOG. ISOLATED
SHOWER/TSTM POSSIBLE THU.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH CONFIDENCE. GENERALLY SW WINDS 10-20 KT EXPECTED WITH SEAS
BELOW SCA.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH PERIOD WITH
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING MOST OF WEEK. BACKDOOR COLD FRONTS EXPECTED
TO DROP S ACROSS WATERS TUE AND AGAIN LATE THU...SHIFTING WINDS TO
E/NE MAINLY ON E MA WATERS...BUT DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC
NEAR TERM...KJC/JWD
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...JWD
AVIATION...KJC/JWD
MARINE...KJC/JWD



000
FXUS61 KBOX 301050
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
650 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY
A BRIEF SHOWER TODAY...OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND
THROUGH MONDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER
WEATHER TUESDAY...MAINLY NEAR THE COAST...BEFORE HOT WEATHER
RETURNS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD
BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER FRIDAY AND INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL MOST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
650 AM UPDATE...

FORECAST ON TRACK AND ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE.

WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS TODAY
AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION. WE EXPECT
PARTIAL SUNSHINE AT TIMES BUT ALSO MOCLDY PERIODS. MODELS DO SHOW
INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN AS PWATS INCREASE TO 1.5" AND
KI VALUES INCREASE INTO THE LOWER 30S BUT THERE IS LITTLE TO NO
INSTABILITY. WHILE MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY...CANT RULE OUT A
FEW BRIEF SHOWERS DEVELOPING WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE
AXIS AS MOISTURE MOVES INTO SNE BUT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SHOULD BE
LIMITED. WE HAVE SLIGHT CHC POPS. FOLLOWED A BLEND OF ALL
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE WHICH BRINGS MAX TEMPS INTO THE MID 80S WHICH
IS IN LINE WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 15C. COOLER TEMPS IMMEDIATE
SOUTH COAST AND HIGHER TERRAIN. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL INCREASE
SLIGHTLY WITH DEWPOINTS UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...
THETA-E RIDGE AND KI AXIS WILL BE ACROSS SNE DURING THE FIRST HALF
OF TONIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING SWD LATE TONIGHT. LOW PROB OF A BRIEF
SHOWER IN THE EVENING...OTHERWISE DRY. THERE IS SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER FOR MOCLDY SKIES WITH PARTIAL
CLEARING MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH OVERNIGHT. CLOUD COVER AND
HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN A MID NIGHT WITH MINS MOSTLY IN
THE 60S...AND NEAR 70 BOS/PVD AND COASTAL LOCATIONS.

MONDAY...
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE NW AS NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DROPS SE
ACROSS MARITIMES WITH COLD FRONT MOVING SWD INTO MAINE. MODELS
SHOW MARGINAL INSTABILITY DEVELOPING...BUT LOTS OF MID LEVEL DRY
AIR AND LOWER KI VALUES MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH SO IT SHOULD REMAIN
DRY WITH PT-MOSUNNY SKIES. 850 MB TEMPS 16-17C AND W/NW FLOW WILL
ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO APPROACH 90 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION...A BIT COOLER NEAR THE S COAST AND HIGHER TERRAIN.
INCREASING HUMIDITY AS WELL AS DEWPOINTS CLIMB INTO THE LOW AND
MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN HOT AND DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF WEEK
* BRIEF COOL DOWNS MAINLY IN EASTERN MA TUE AND AGAIN FRI

DETAILS...

ENSEMBLES AND 00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO GIVE US HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER EASTERN STATES THIS WEEK...
RESULTING IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF PERIOD WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER. HOTTEST DAYS LOOK TO BE WED AND THU WHEN HIGHS
SHOULD REACH WELL INTO 80S WITH LOWER 90S ACROSS PARTS OF CT AND
FROM MERRIMACK VALLEY INTO INTERIOR SE MA. NOT LOOKING FOR
OPPRESSIVELY HUMID CONDITIONS AS MEAN FLOW SHOULD KEEP DEWPOINTS IN
60S ALTHOUGH THEY WILL APPROACH 70 NEAR S COAST...CAPE COD AND
ISLANDS LATER IN WEEK.

MAIN ITEMS OF INTEREST ARE A COUPLE OF BACKDOOR FRONTS WHICH WILL
BRING SLIGHT COOLING TO E MA COAST. MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH TIMING OF FIRST FRONT TUE...WHICH EVENTUALLY LIFTS BACK N TUE
NIGHT AND WED. 2M TEMPERATURES SUGGEST IMMEDIATE E MA COAST SHOULD
STAY CLOSER TO 80...WHILE HIGHS REACH UPPER 80S IN W NEW ENGLAND.
RISING HEIGHTS AND ASSOCIATED WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT SHOULD ACT TO
SUPPRESS CONVECTION.

TIMING OF SECOND BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS LESS CERTAIN BUT LOOKS TO BE
CLOSER TO LATE THU OR FRI. THIS TIME THERE MAY BE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM SO KEPT THAT MENTION PER MODEL
CONSENSUS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN FACT RIDGE AXIS SHOULD SHIFT FARTHER S
AND W OF REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MONDAY.

PATCHY FOG WITH MVFR/IFR VSBYS WILL LIFT BY 13Z. OTHERWISE VFR
TODAY WITH CIGS AOA 060 AND BRIEF SPRINKLE POSSIBLE. LOCAL
MVFR/IFR VSBYS AGAIN LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY MON IN PATCHY VALLEY
FOG. VFR MON.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR. LOCAL MVFR/IFR IN EARLY MORNING PATCHY VALLEY FOG. ISOLATED
SHOWER/TSTM POSSIBLE THU.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH CONFIDENCE. GENERALLY SW WINDS 10-20 KT EXPECTED WITH SEAS
BELOW SCA.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH PERIOD WITH
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING MOST OF WEEK. BACKDOOR COLD FRONTS EXPECTED
TO DROP S ACROSS WATERS TUE AND AGAIN LATE THU...SHIFTING WINDS TO
E/NE MAINLY ON E MA WATERS...BUT DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC
NEAR TERM...KJC/JWD
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...JWD
AVIATION...KJC/JWD
MARINE...KJC/JWD




000
FXUS61 KOKX 301036
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
636 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
TROUGH WHICH WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE THEN
PASSES TO THE NORTH ACROSS EASTERN CANADA ON MONDAY...SENDING A
WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO FORECAST BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

THE TREND WILL BE FOR WARMER AND INCREASINGLY MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS HEADING INTO THE NEW WEEK AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN U.S. MERGES WITH THE SUB TROPICAL RIDGE ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD. IN BETWEEN...A WEAKNESS ACROSS THE MID
SECTION OF THE COUNTRY WILL GRADUALLY FILL...WHILE A NORTHERN
STREAM SHORT WAVE TROF PASSES THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. AT THE
SURFACE...THIS WILL BE REFLECTED AS A SFC TROF OR WARM FRONT...
PRECEDED BY WEAK THERMAL FORCING. THIS FORCING COMBINED WITH
MARGINAL INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER AND/OR
THUNDERSTORM THIS AFT/EVE...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF NYC. CLOUDS
WILL ALSO SPREAD IN FROM THE NW TODAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS BY AFTERNOON INLAND AND PARTY SUNNY AT THE COAST.

HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S NEAR THE COAST...TO AROUND 90
INLAND,

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AFOREMENTIONED TROF/WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT WITH GRADUAL
CLEARING FROM NW TO SE BY MORNING. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO
EXPAND EASTWARD ON MON WITH WARMING TEMP PROFILES ALOFT AND A
GUSTY W/SW FLOW IN THE AFT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHS A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN ON SUN...WITH READINGS TOPPING OUT IN THE
LOWER 90S INLAND.

A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THEN PASSES THROUGH MON NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE PASSES WELL TO THE NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. NOT MUCH RELIEF THOUGH FOR TUE WITH PERHAPS A DEGREE
OR TWO SHAVED OFF OF MON HIGHS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO
MID 60S INLAND...TO 70 TO 75 NYC METRO. THESE READINGS ARE STILL
WELL ABOVE NORMAL. IT WILL ALSO BE MUGGY WITH DEW POINTS WELL INTO
THE 60S. HEAT INDEX VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA
AT THIS TIME.

WINDS BRIEFLY GO NW TUE MORNING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...BUT THEN
RETURN FROM THE S BY AFT AS THE FRONT LIFTS NWD AND DISSIPATES
NEARBY. SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL PUT A CAP ON ANY CONVECTION DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MAIN THEME OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE CONTINUATION OF
HEAT AND HUMIDITY ACROSS THE REGION.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE H5 PATTERN ACROSS NORTH
AMERICA INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OUT WEST MERGES WITH THE SUB TROP RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER THROUGH THU
POSSIBLY FRI. THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS WHICH IS CURRENTLY UNCERTAIN DUE TO
DIFFERENCES THAT DEVELOP IN THE H5 FLOW DURING THE LATTER PORTION
OF THE WEEK. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS OR TSTMS WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WHICH IS CURRENTLY SLATED FOR FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY DRY
CONDITIONS AND COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR THE
WEEKEND.

HIGHS WILL GENERALLY RANGE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...THE EXCEPTION FRI/SAT WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES IN/THROUGH THE AREA. HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE CLOSE TO THE AMBIENT AIR TEMP AND ARE NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED
TO REACH 95 DEGREES IN NYC THROUGH WED.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE
AREA LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

A W/SW FLOW 5 TO 10 KT IS FORECAST THIS MORNING. SEA BREEZES
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS 10 TO 15 KT. A FEW GUSTS TO 20
KT ARE POSSIBLE AT NYC TERMINALS AS WELL.

AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT NW OF NYC
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS VEER TO THE SW TONIGHT 5 TO 10 KT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.SUNDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...VFR. AFTERNOON SEABREEZES AT COASTAL
TERMINALS EACH DAY. SW GUSTS TO 20 KT NEAR CITY TERMINALS POSSIBLE
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
A RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD WITH SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WILL FEATURE
LATE AFT/EARLY EVE ENHANCEMENT OF THE SW FLOW FROM THE NY BIGHT
EAST ALONG THE OCEAN WATERS. THESE WINDS MAY GUSTS TO AROUND 20
KT WITH SEAS AS HIGH AS 4 FT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
ACROSS THE WATERS ON TUE WITH TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THROUGH THU.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A RECENT FULL MOON...BRIEF MINOR INUNDATION IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE ACROSS THE TYPICALLY VULNERABLE
COASTAL LOCALES INTO THE START OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...24/DW
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...24/DW
HYDROLOGY...DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KOKX 301036
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
636 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
TROUGH WHICH WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE THEN
PASSES TO THE NORTH ACROSS EASTERN CANADA ON MONDAY...SENDING A
WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO FORECAST BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

THE TREND WILL BE FOR WARMER AND INCREASINGLY MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS HEADING INTO THE NEW WEEK AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN U.S. MERGES WITH THE SUB TROPICAL RIDGE ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD. IN BETWEEN...A WEAKNESS ACROSS THE MID
SECTION OF THE COUNTRY WILL GRADUALLY FILL...WHILE A NORTHERN
STREAM SHORT WAVE TROF PASSES THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. AT THE
SURFACE...THIS WILL BE REFLECTED AS A SFC TROF OR WARM FRONT...
PRECEDED BY WEAK THERMAL FORCING. THIS FORCING COMBINED WITH
MARGINAL INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER AND/OR
THUNDERSTORM THIS AFT/EVE...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF NYC. CLOUDS
WILL ALSO SPREAD IN FROM THE NW TODAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS BY AFTERNOON INLAND AND PARTY SUNNY AT THE COAST.

HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S NEAR THE COAST...TO AROUND 90
INLAND,

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AFOREMENTIONED TROF/WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT WITH GRADUAL
CLEARING FROM NW TO SE BY MORNING. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO
EXPAND EASTWARD ON MON WITH WARMING TEMP PROFILES ALOFT AND A
GUSTY W/SW FLOW IN THE AFT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHS A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN ON SUN...WITH READINGS TOPPING OUT IN THE
LOWER 90S INLAND.

A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THEN PASSES THROUGH MON NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE PASSES WELL TO THE NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. NOT MUCH RELIEF THOUGH FOR TUE WITH PERHAPS A DEGREE
OR TWO SHAVED OFF OF MON HIGHS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO
MID 60S INLAND...TO 70 TO 75 NYC METRO. THESE READINGS ARE STILL
WELL ABOVE NORMAL. IT WILL ALSO BE MUGGY WITH DEW POINTS WELL INTO
THE 60S. HEAT INDEX VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA
AT THIS TIME.

WINDS BRIEFLY GO NW TUE MORNING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...BUT THEN
RETURN FROM THE S BY AFT AS THE FRONT LIFTS NWD AND DISSIPATES
NEARBY. SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL PUT A CAP ON ANY CONVECTION DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MAIN THEME OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE CONTINUATION OF
HEAT AND HUMIDITY ACROSS THE REGION.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE H5 PATTERN ACROSS NORTH
AMERICA INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OUT WEST MERGES WITH THE SUB TROP RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER THROUGH THU
POSSIBLY FRI. THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS WHICH IS CURRENTLY UNCERTAIN DUE TO
DIFFERENCES THAT DEVELOP IN THE H5 FLOW DURING THE LATTER PORTION
OF THE WEEK. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS OR TSTMS WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WHICH IS CURRENTLY SLATED FOR FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY DRY
CONDITIONS AND COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR THE
WEEKEND.

HIGHS WILL GENERALLY RANGE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...THE EXCEPTION FRI/SAT WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES IN/THROUGH THE AREA. HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE CLOSE TO THE AMBIENT AIR TEMP AND ARE NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED
TO REACH 95 DEGREES IN NYC THROUGH WED.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE
AREA LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

A W/SW FLOW 5 TO 10 KT IS FORECAST THIS MORNING. SEA BREEZES
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS 10 TO 15 KT. A FEW GUSTS TO 20
KT ARE POSSIBLE AT NYC TERMINALS AS WELL.

AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT NW OF NYC
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS VEER TO THE SW TONIGHT 5 TO 10 KT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.SUNDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...VFR. AFTERNOON SEABREEZES AT COASTAL
TERMINALS EACH DAY. SW GUSTS TO 20 KT NEAR CITY TERMINALS POSSIBLE
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
A RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD WITH SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WILL FEATURE
LATE AFT/EARLY EVE ENHANCEMENT OF THE SW FLOW FROM THE NY BIGHT
EAST ALONG THE OCEAN WATERS. THESE WINDS MAY GUSTS TO AROUND 20
KT WITH SEAS AS HIGH AS 4 FT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
ACROSS THE WATERS ON TUE WITH TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THROUGH THU.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A RECENT FULL MOON...BRIEF MINOR INUNDATION IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE ACROSS THE TYPICALLY VULNERABLE
COASTAL LOCALES INTO THE START OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...24/DW
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...24/DW
HYDROLOGY...DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KOKX 301036
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
636 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
TROUGH WHICH WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE THEN
PASSES TO THE NORTH ACROSS EASTERN CANADA ON MONDAY...SENDING A
WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO FORECAST BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

THE TREND WILL BE FOR WARMER AND INCREASINGLY MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS HEADING INTO THE NEW WEEK AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN U.S. MERGES WITH THE SUB TROPICAL RIDGE ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD. IN BETWEEN...A WEAKNESS ACROSS THE MID
SECTION OF THE COUNTRY WILL GRADUALLY FILL...WHILE A NORTHERN
STREAM SHORT WAVE TROF PASSES THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. AT THE
SURFACE...THIS WILL BE REFLECTED AS A SFC TROF OR WARM FRONT...
PRECEDED BY WEAK THERMAL FORCING. THIS FORCING COMBINED WITH
MARGINAL INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER AND/OR
THUNDERSTORM THIS AFT/EVE...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF NYC. CLOUDS
WILL ALSO SPREAD IN FROM THE NW TODAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS BY AFTERNOON INLAND AND PARTY SUNNY AT THE COAST.

HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S NEAR THE COAST...TO AROUND 90
INLAND,

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AFOREMENTIONED TROF/WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT WITH GRADUAL
CLEARING FROM NW TO SE BY MORNING. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO
EXPAND EASTWARD ON MON WITH WARMING TEMP PROFILES ALOFT AND A
GUSTY W/SW FLOW IN THE AFT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHS A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN ON SUN...WITH READINGS TOPPING OUT IN THE
LOWER 90S INLAND.

A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THEN PASSES THROUGH MON NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE PASSES WELL TO THE NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. NOT MUCH RELIEF THOUGH FOR TUE WITH PERHAPS A DEGREE
OR TWO SHAVED OFF OF MON HIGHS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO
MID 60S INLAND...TO 70 TO 75 NYC METRO. THESE READINGS ARE STILL
WELL ABOVE NORMAL. IT WILL ALSO BE MUGGY WITH DEW POINTS WELL INTO
THE 60S. HEAT INDEX VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA
AT THIS TIME.

WINDS BRIEFLY GO NW TUE MORNING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...BUT THEN
RETURN FROM THE S BY AFT AS THE FRONT LIFTS NWD AND DISSIPATES
NEARBY. SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL PUT A CAP ON ANY CONVECTION DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MAIN THEME OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE CONTINUATION OF
HEAT AND HUMIDITY ACROSS THE REGION.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE H5 PATTERN ACROSS NORTH
AMERICA INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OUT WEST MERGES WITH THE SUB TROP RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER THROUGH THU
POSSIBLY FRI. THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS WHICH IS CURRENTLY UNCERTAIN DUE TO
DIFFERENCES THAT DEVELOP IN THE H5 FLOW DURING THE LATTER PORTION
OF THE WEEK. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS OR TSTMS WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WHICH IS CURRENTLY SLATED FOR FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY DRY
CONDITIONS AND COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR THE
WEEKEND.

HIGHS WILL GENERALLY RANGE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...THE EXCEPTION FRI/SAT WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES IN/THROUGH THE AREA. HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE CLOSE TO THE AMBIENT AIR TEMP AND ARE NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED
TO REACH 95 DEGREES IN NYC THROUGH WED.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE
AREA LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

A W/SW FLOW 5 TO 10 KT IS FORECAST THIS MORNING. SEA BREEZES
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS 10 TO 15 KT. A FEW GUSTS TO 20
KT ARE POSSIBLE AT NYC TERMINALS AS WELL.

AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT NW OF NYC
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS VEER TO THE SW TONIGHT 5 TO 10 KT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.SUNDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...VFR. AFTERNOON SEABREEZES AT COASTAL
TERMINALS EACH DAY. SW GUSTS TO 20 KT NEAR CITY TERMINALS POSSIBLE
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
A RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD WITH SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WILL FEATURE
LATE AFT/EARLY EVE ENHANCEMENT OF THE SW FLOW FROM THE NY BIGHT
EAST ALONG THE OCEAN WATERS. THESE WINDS MAY GUSTS TO AROUND 20
KT WITH SEAS AS HIGH AS 4 FT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
ACROSS THE WATERS ON TUE WITH TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THROUGH THU.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A RECENT FULL MOON...BRIEF MINOR INUNDATION IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE ACROSS THE TYPICALLY VULNERABLE
COASTAL LOCALES INTO THE START OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...24/DW
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...24/DW
HYDROLOGY...DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KOKX 301036
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
636 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
TROUGH WHICH WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE THEN
PASSES TO THE NORTH ACROSS EASTERN CANADA ON MONDAY...SENDING A
WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO FORECAST BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

THE TREND WILL BE FOR WARMER AND INCREASINGLY MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS HEADING INTO THE NEW WEEK AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN U.S. MERGES WITH THE SUB TROPICAL RIDGE ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD. IN BETWEEN...A WEAKNESS ACROSS THE MID
SECTION OF THE COUNTRY WILL GRADUALLY FILL...WHILE A NORTHERN
STREAM SHORT WAVE TROF PASSES THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. AT THE
SURFACE...THIS WILL BE REFLECTED AS A SFC TROF OR WARM FRONT...
PRECEDED BY WEAK THERMAL FORCING. THIS FORCING COMBINED WITH
MARGINAL INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER AND/OR
THUNDERSTORM THIS AFT/EVE...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF NYC. CLOUDS
WILL ALSO SPREAD IN FROM THE NW TODAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS BY AFTERNOON INLAND AND PARTY SUNNY AT THE COAST.

HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S NEAR THE COAST...TO AROUND 90
INLAND,

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AFOREMENTIONED TROF/WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT WITH GRADUAL
CLEARING FROM NW TO SE BY MORNING. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO
EXPAND EASTWARD ON MON WITH WARMING TEMP PROFILES ALOFT AND A
GUSTY W/SW FLOW IN THE AFT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHS A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN ON SUN...WITH READINGS TOPPING OUT IN THE
LOWER 90S INLAND.

A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THEN PASSES THROUGH MON NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE PASSES WELL TO THE NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. NOT MUCH RELIEF THOUGH FOR TUE WITH PERHAPS A DEGREE
OR TWO SHAVED OFF OF MON HIGHS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO
MID 60S INLAND...TO 70 TO 75 NYC METRO. THESE READINGS ARE STILL
WELL ABOVE NORMAL. IT WILL ALSO BE MUGGY WITH DEW POINTS WELL INTO
THE 60S. HEAT INDEX VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA
AT THIS TIME.

WINDS BRIEFLY GO NW TUE MORNING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...BUT THEN
RETURN FROM THE S BY AFT AS THE FRONT LIFTS NWD AND DISSIPATES
NEARBY. SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL PUT A CAP ON ANY CONVECTION DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MAIN THEME OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE CONTINUATION OF
HEAT AND HUMIDITY ACROSS THE REGION.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE H5 PATTERN ACROSS NORTH
AMERICA INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OUT WEST MERGES WITH THE SUB TROP RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER THROUGH THU
POSSIBLY FRI. THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS WHICH IS CURRENTLY UNCERTAIN DUE TO
DIFFERENCES THAT DEVELOP IN THE H5 FLOW DURING THE LATTER PORTION
OF THE WEEK. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS OR TSTMS WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WHICH IS CURRENTLY SLATED FOR FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY DRY
CONDITIONS AND COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR THE
WEEKEND.

HIGHS WILL GENERALLY RANGE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...THE EXCEPTION FRI/SAT WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES IN/THROUGH THE AREA. HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE CLOSE TO THE AMBIENT AIR TEMP AND ARE NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED
TO REACH 95 DEGREES IN NYC THROUGH WED.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE
AREA LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

A W/SW FLOW 5 TO 10 KT IS FORECAST THIS MORNING. SEA BREEZES
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS 10 TO 15 KT. A FEW GUSTS TO 20
KT ARE POSSIBLE AT NYC TERMINALS AS WELL.

AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT NW OF NYC
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS VEER TO THE SW TONIGHT 5 TO 10 KT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.SUNDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...VFR. AFTERNOON SEABREEZES AT COASTAL
TERMINALS EACH DAY. SW GUSTS TO 20 KT NEAR CITY TERMINALS POSSIBLE
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
A RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD WITH SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WILL FEATURE
LATE AFT/EARLY EVE ENHANCEMENT OF THE SW FLOW FROM THE NY BIGHT
EAST ALONG THE OCEAN WATERS. THESE WINDS MAY GUSTS TO AROUND 20
KT WITH SEAS AS HIGH AS 4 FT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
ACROSS THE WATERS ON TUE WITH TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THROUGH THU.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A RECENT FULL MOON...BRIEF MINOR INUNDATION IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE ACROSS THE TYPICALLY VULNERABLE
COASTAL LOCALES INTO THE START OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...24/DW
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...24/DW
HYDROLOGY...DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KALY 301034
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
634 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING CLOUDS AS WELL
AS ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. AFTERWARD...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME SITUATED OVER THE REGION
FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...ALLOWING FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED LEVELS OF HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM EDT...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER
60S.

FOR TODAY EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
FA. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PORTION OF
THE FA. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT MOVING
ACROSS THE FA. DESPITE THE FACT THAT IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO POP
ANY CONVECTION ACROSS THE FA WITH A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN
PLACE. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE INTO THE FA FROM
THE WEST BEFORE THEY WEAKEN AS INDICATED BY CURRENT RADAR TRENDS.
HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S MAKING IT FEEL A LITTLE
UNCOMFORTABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS THE FA THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY AS WE GO FROM INTO THE MID WEEK PERIOD.
DESPITE THE HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S WITH HIGHS
ON MONDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 90. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT ARE
ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S WITH HIGHS ON
TUESDAY IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. DEWPOINTS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE 60S MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH MOST
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

THE COMBINATION OF HIGH MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS...850 TEMPS IN THE
+16 TO +18 C RANGE...AND A LOW LEVEL NORTHWEST WIND FLOW SHOULD
ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH AT LEAST THE LOWER 90S WITHIN MUCH OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FOR WED AND THU...85-90 IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY
REGION...WITH 80S FOR MOST HIGHER TERRAIN...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE
HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SW VT MAY REMAIN
SLIGHTLY COOLER...AROUND 80. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE
MODERATE...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. THIS SHOULD ALLOW HEAT INDICES
BOTH DAYS TO REACH INTO THE MID TO PERHAPS UPPER 90S WITHIN THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND LOWER 90S ELSEWHERE. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS
FOR WED NT/THU AM AND THU NT/FRI AM SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE 60S.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY APPROACH FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST
SOMETIME LATE WED INTO THU. IN ADDITION...A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY SETTLE SOUTHWEST INTO THE
FORECAST AREA ON FRI. OVERALL FORCING WITH THESE FEATURES SHOULD
REMAIN WEAK...HOWEVER THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY WORKING
IN TANDEM WITH THE WEAK FORCING TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ESP THU AND FRI. FRI MAX TEMPS MAY
BE SLIGHTLY COOLER DUE TO MORE CLOUDS...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION...WITH 80S FOR MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND MID 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

MODELS SUGGEST THAT A SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHEAST OR EAST FOR LATE FRI INTO SAT...WITH THE POSSIBLE BACKDOOR
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING WEST AND SOUTH OF THE REGION. WILL
INDICATE DRY CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...ALONG WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS...ALBEIT STILL ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS ON SAT RANGING FROM 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...TO THE
LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS. FRI NT/SAT AM MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO
THE LOWER 60S IN LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH...EXPECT PLENTY OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS...SUCH AS KPOU...THIS AFTERNOON. THERE COULD
BE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER AS WELL WITHIN THESE SHOWERS...BUT
OVERALL PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS
TIME. FURTHER NORTH...AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO COULD REACH KALB AND
KPSF THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL...BUT CHANCES APPEAR LOW ENOUGH TO NOT
INCLUDE MENTION AT THIS TIME.

OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MOST OF
SUNDAY AFTER ANY PATCHY LOW CLOUDS/FOG BURNS OFF AT KPSF BY
13Z/SUN. THERE WILL BE BKN-OVC MID LEVEL CLOUDS MUCH OF THE
DAY...BEFORE POSSIBLY THINNING OUT LATER IN THE DAY FROM NW TO
SE.

FOR TONIGHT...THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT FROM
NW TO SE. A PERIOD OF RADIATIONAL COOLING MAY ALLOW PATCHY FOG TO
DEVELOP TOWARD OR AFTER 06Z/MON...ESP AT KGFL AND KPSF. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT OF IFR AT
KPSF AFTER 07Z/MON.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-WED NIGHT: PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT/EARLY IN THE AM.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING CLOUDS AS WELL
AS ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. AFTERWARD...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME SITUATED OVER THE REGION
FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...ALLOWING FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED LEVELS OF HUMIDITY.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL DROP TO 40 TO 60 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...RECOVER TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH HEAVY DEW
FORMATION AND DROP TO 40 TO 65 PERCENT MONDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH TODAY...LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TONIGHT...AND WEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

NO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO FALL FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
FIVE DAYS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

RIVER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR
AUGUST...AND IF ANYTHING...MIGHT DROP A LITTLE MORE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/11
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11



000
FXUS61 KALY 301034
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
634 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING CLOUDS AS WELL
AS ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. AFTERWARD...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME SITUATED OVER THE REGION
FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...ALLOWING FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED LEVELS OF HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM EDT...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER
60S.

FOR TODAY EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
FA. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PORTION OF
THE FA. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT MOVING
ACROSS THE FA. DESPITE THE FACT THAT IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO POP
ANY CONVECTION ACROSS THE FA WITH A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN
PLACE. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE INTO THE FA FROM
THE WEST BEFORE THEY WEAKEN AS INDICATED BY CURRENT RADAR TRENDS.
HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S MAKING IT FEEL A LITTLE
UNCOMFORTABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS THE FA THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY AS WE GO FROM INTO THE MID WEEK PERIOD.
DESPITE THE HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S WITH HIGHS
ON MONDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 90. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT ARE
ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S WITH HIGHS ON
TUESDAY IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. DEWPOINTS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE 60S MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH MOST
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

THE COMBINATION OF HIGH MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS...850 TEMPS IN THE
+16 TO +18 C RANGE...AND A LOW LEVEL NORTHWEST WIND FLOW SHOULD
ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH AT LEAST THE LOWER 90S WITHIN MUCH OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FOR WED AND THU...85-90 IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY
REGION...WITH 80S FOR MOST HIGHER TERRAIN...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE
HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SW VT MAY REMAIN
SLIGHTLY COOLER...AROUND 80. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE
MODERATE...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. THIS SHOULD ALLOW HEAT INDICES
BOTH DAYS TO REACH INTO THE MID TO PERHAPS UPPER 90S WITHIN THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND LOWER 90S ELSEWHERE. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS
FOR WED NT/THU AM AND THU NT/FRI AM SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE 60S.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY APPROACH FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST
SOMETIME LATE WED INTO THU. IN ADDITION...A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY SETTLE SOUTHWEST INTO THE
FORECAST AREA ON FRI. OVERALL FORCING WITH THESE FEATURES SHOULD
REMAIN WEAK...HOWEVER THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY WORKING
IN TANDEM WITH THE WEAK FORCING TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ESP THU AND FRI. FRI MAX TEMPS MAY
BE SLIGHTLY COOLER DUE TO MORE CLOUDS...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION...WITH 80S FOR MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND MID 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

MODELS SUGGEST THAT A SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHEAST OR EAST FOR LATE FRI INTO SAT...WITH THE POSSIBLE BACKDOOR
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING WEST AND SOUTH OF THE REGION. WILL
INDICATE DRY CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...ALONG WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS...ALBEIT STILL ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS ON SAT RANGING FROM 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...TO THE
LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS. FRI NT/SAT AM MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO
THE LOWER 60S IN LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH...EXPECT PLENTY OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS...SUCH AS KPOU...THIS AFTERNOON. THERE COULD
BE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER AS WELL WITHIN THESE SHOWERS...BUT
OVERALL PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS
TIME. FURTHER NORTH...AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO COULD REACH KALB AND
KPSF THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL...BUT CHANCES APPEAR LOW ENOUGH TO NOT
INCLUDE MENTION AT THIS TIME.

OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MOST OF
SUNDAY AFTER ANY PATCHY LOW CLOUDS/FOG BURNS OFF AT KPSF BY
13Z/SUN. THERE WILL BE BKN-OVC MID LEVEL CLOUDS MUCH OF THE
DAY...BEFORE POSSIBLY THINNING OUT LATER IN THE DAY FROM NW TO
SE.

FOR TONIGHT...THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT FROM
NW TO SE. A PERIOD OF RADIATIONAL COOLING MAY ALLOW PATCHY FOG TO
DEVELOP TOWARD OR AFTER 06Z/MON...ESP AT KGFL AND KPSF. MVFR/IFR
CONDIT